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Author Topic: 2022 Tropical Season  (Read 4911 times)

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Offline cgauxknox

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2022 Tropical Season
« on: April 08, 2022, 11:50:00 AM »
It may be April, but Colorado State has released an above normal prediction for 2022: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

Offline BeetleChe13

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2022, 10:33:31 AM »
Many others are forecasting an above average season as well. We already have warmer than normal sea surface temps and are in a La Nina pattern like last year.

Offline cgauxknox

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Offline dwagner88

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2022, 01:27:28 PM »
The GFS would like to skip early season tropical storms and go directly to eastern GOM hurricanes. It’s been showing up for a couple of days now.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline wfrogge

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2022, 12:36:45 PM »
fairly common for the GFS to show canes in the gulf this far out. Always needs to be watched but I have seen this show before

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2022, 08:44:11 PM »
We've now got Invest 90L in the Gulf, just south of the FL panhandle/AL. NOAA has it with less than a 40% chance of development, but it is the first organized system this season.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2022, 01:55:57 PM »
First good rain since the start of April! Over 2" in the bucket from 90L as it swings overhead.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2022, 07:50:55 AM »
It looks like we have a good chance of Hurricane Agatha crossing into the Gulf and turning into a TD or TS Alex by the end of the week. Right now there seems to be too much shear to develop into much of a threat, so it will mostly be a rain-maker. It is something to track with the first day or hurricane season tomorrow.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2022, 06:05:14 PM »
We should see our first tropical storm of the season tomorrow and FL has TS watches coming out.

Offline Beth

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #9 on: June 03, 2022, 03:37:02 PM »
We should see our first tropical storm of the season tomorrow and FL has TS watches coming out.

I am glad it is heading up the East coast. Leaving tomorrow night to head to Clearwater Beach.  So ready to have a relaxing time! 😎😎😎

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #10 on: June 03, 2022, 03:44:23 PM »
I am glad it is heading up the East coast. Leaving tomorrow night to head to Clearwater Beach.  So ready to have a relaxing time! 😎😎😎
You should be free and clear for a great trip - enjoy!

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2022, 12:10:12 PM »
TS Fiona may be worth watching. The track right now looks like it could either swing out to sea or make a landfall on the southeast coast. It's way too early to even give odds on a landfall, but it will likely be a strengthening storm next week.

Online Bruce

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2022, 03:51:46 PM »
TS Fiona may be worth watching. The track right now looks like it could either swing out to sea or make a landfall on the southeast coast. It's way too early to even give odds on a landfall, but it will likely be a strengthening storm next week.
she stays a fish …. Ots
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Curt

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2022, 10:53:03 AM »
Looks like a Cat 3 lurking in the central gulf in about 9 days. Could be an active October coming up.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2022 Tropical Season
« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2022, 03:27:33 PM »
Looks like a Cat 3 lurking in the central gulf in about 9 days. Could be an active October coming up.
I hope you're wrong, but that system definitely looks to charge into the Gulf and strengthen. Many of the forecasters have been saying for months that this would be a back-loaded season. I continue to pull for drought-busting rain makers that won't carry a lot of damage. Depending on intensity and track hurricanes this season could be a good thing for many.

 

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