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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 53398 times)

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #570 on: February 22, 2021, 05:40:36 PM »
The one aspect of this winter I will remember is--it was the most snow I've witnessed on Christmas morning.  I've seen snow on Christmas, but not more than 2-3". I'm not a spring chicken, and I've been around the weather block many times, and I've lived in places much further north of east TN.  Yet, I've never seen a Christmas as white as the end of 2020.   Considering the difficult times I've (and all of us) had last year, it was a nice gift to end the year.  I'm equally glad my neighbors west of here also had some good winter fun before this one came to a close. Of course, that doesn't mean we're done yet.  Winter has a way of showing up when least expected, even this far south. 
« Last Edit: February 22, 2021, 05:45:59 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline mempho

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #571 on: February 23, 2021, 05:01:03 AM »
Looks like this is just a pattern reload week per the Euro.  This is the pattern we want for March excitement!

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #572 on: February 23, 2021, 09:17:18 AM »
The one aspect of this winter I will remember is--it was the most snow I've witnessed on Christmas morning.  I've seen snow on Christmas, but not more than 2-3". I'm not a spring chicken, and I've been around the weather block many times, and I've lived in places much further north of east TN.  Yet, I've never seen a Christmas as white as the end of 2020.   Considering the difficult times I've (and all of us) had last year, it was a nice gift to end the year.  I'm equally glad my neighbors west of here also had some good winter fun before this one came to a close. Of course, that doesn't mean we're done yet.  Winter has a way of showing up when least expected, even this far south.

I would take a 2 inch snow on Christmas morning over 4-6 inches on any other day.
Something magical about a true white christmas

Offline Coach B

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #573 on: February 23, 2021, 09:26:30 AM »
Looks like this is just a pattern reload week per the Euro.  This is the pattern we want for March excitement!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

I've taken a little break from model watching. However, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised with a reload to the cold pattern the second or third week of March. A bowling ball upper low would not be a surprise either. Still a solid three to four weeks for a winter threat.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #574 on: February 23, 2021, 09:41:51 AM »
I've taken a little break from model watching. However, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised with a reload to the cold pattern the second or third week of March. A bowling ball upper low would not be a surprise either. Still a solid three to four weeks for a winter threat.

Yep, nothing currently in the next week winter-wise so it is a nice little break from model watching madness :)

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #575 on: February 23, 2021, 05:46:27 PM »
Yes it was nice today, it is good to get a little break from model watching. Last week was fun but wore me down, and lost a lot of sleep but it was fun. Getting rested up too see if march will bring us another round of winter weather. No matter what, it has for sure been a more entertaining winter than the last 2.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #576 on: February 23, 2021, 08:42:36 PM »
Yes it was nice today, it is good to get a little break from model watching. Last week was fun but wore me down, and lost a lot of sleep but it was fun. Getting rested up too see if march will bring us another round of winter weather. No matter what, it has for sure been a more entertaining winter than the last 2.

I like the way you think, Snowman. I'll take a snowstorm any time of the year. Even if it's in April. Sue me!
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Flash

Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #577 on: February 23, 2021, 08:42:59 PM »
Yes it was nice today, it is good to get a little break from model watching. Last week was fun but wore me down, and lost a lot of sleep but it was fun. Getting rested up too see if march will bring us another round of winter weather. No matter what, it has for sure been a more entertaining winter than the last 2.

You and me both Snowman. Gotta get our zzz's in before severe weather peak season.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #578 on: February 24, 2021, 05:49:41 PM »
So looking at the winter storm data I collected earlier...since 1950 out of the 96- now 99 winter storms across the state, 12 have occurred in March.

- 4/12 in a La Nina
- 3/12 in an El Nino
- 5/12 in neutral ENSO

Of the La Nina ones (only 4):
- PNA: 2 positive/2 negative
- EPO: 3 positive/ 1 negative
- AO: 2 positive/2 negative
- NAO: 2 positive/2 negative
- The big March 1968 storm was a weak La Nina after a PV Split in January with a positive PNA, EPO, AO, and NAO (MJO undetermined)
- March 2008 near blizzard conditions occurred in a moderate La Nina with positive PNA, EPO, AO, and NAO and a MJO in phase 1
-March 1975 was a weak Nina and weakly negative PNA, EPO, AO, and NAO with MJO in Phase 3
- March 1971 was a moderate Nina with a negative PNA, positive EPO, strongly negative AO, and negative NAO, and MJO undetermined
- 36/99 winter storms from 1950 occurred with a La Nina. So getting 4/36 to occur in March looks rare but not impossible. The usual teleconnections don't look to be near as solid of a predictor as they do in Dec-Feb.

In late January when looking at teleconnections with the winter storms studied, I think I mentioned the best analog was Jan 31, 1985. Looking in more detail, it was almost identical for the period we just went through.




Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #579 on: March 08, 2021, 05:42:05 PM »
[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Raise your hand if your winter prediction looked like that. If it did you need to play the lottery right now.

Look how different that is from climo

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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #580 on: March 08, 2021, 10:16:34 PM »
Need to dig up the prediction map I made in September and repost it to compare.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #581 on: March 08, 2021, 10:18:22 PM »
way early still... but I am going out. on a limb here, I am going with a warmer than average winter...


Hey, you were correct for the eastern part of the state.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #582 on: March 10, 2021, 02:11:48 PM »
Winter Stats at KMEM:
Dec +0.7
Jan + 2.6
Feb -8.5
Snowfall: 10.3 inches

Obviously the middle 10 days in February made the winter exceptional. Outside of that period, winter was really unremarkable here with no torches or arctic plunges. La Nina winters can be very fickle and this was no exception. The MJO was never in very favorable regions for a prolonged cold winter but the strat warm was able to perform its magic for the middle of the US. Outside of a March surprise, its likely that much of AL/GA/NC/SC will be one of the least snowy winters on record.

Looking way out there to next winter, its likely to be a second La Nina and strength is anyone's guess. Other second and third year La Nina Winters include:
1873-74 weak
1893-94 weak
1898-99 weak
1909-10 moderate
1910-11 weak
1916-17 strong (strongest Nina on record)
1917-18 weak
1950-51 weak
1955-56 moderate
1967-68 weak
1971-72 weak
1974-75 weak
1975-76 moderate
1984-85 moderate
1996-97 weak
1999-00 moderate
2008-09 weak
2011-12 weak
2012-13 weak
2013-14 weak
2017-18 weak

There are some cold to really colder winters in that group and there are some warm winters too. Looks like most repeat Ninas are weak or perhaps moderate at best minus 1916-17.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #583 on: March 10, 2021, 02:29:07 PM »
What was our La Nina strength this winter? Weak or moderate?
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #584 on: March 10, 2021, 04:26:12 PM »
What was our La Nina strength this winter? Weak or moderate?

Moderate.  It was similar to 2017-18 in strength.   

 

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