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Author Topic: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow  (Read 4318 times)

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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #15 on: November 10, 2019, 03:57:35 PM »
15Z SREF Plumes:


TN

MEM: Trace
BNA: 1.4"
CHA: 0.5"
TYS: 2.0"
TRI: 1.8"
CSV: 0.6" (seems low given the others)


KY

PAH: 1.8"
HOP: 1.7"
BWG: 2.1"


AL

HSV: Trace

"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline snowdog

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #16 on: November 10, 2019, 04:00:44 PM »
It's going to be a good winter when we are breaking out SREF plumes in early November.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #17 on: November 10, 2019, 04:02:59 PM »
It's going to be a good winter when we are breaking out SREF plumes in early November.

Hope so! Not to be negative, but although accumulating snow occurred in Mississippi last November, the rest of the season was a total dud.

This coming winter's setup is very different, thank goodness.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2019, 04:11:56 PM by schneitzeit »
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #18 on: November 10, 2019, 04:17:44 PM »
15Z SREF Plumes:


TN

MEM: Trace
BNA: 1.4"
CHA: 0.5"
TYS: 2.0"
TRI: 1.8"
CSV: 0.6" (seems low given the others)


KY

PAH: 1.8"
HOP: 1.7"
BWG: 2.1"


AL

HSV: Trace
Good action, try to get me a CKV reading next time. Thanks for the info though, like looking at that stuff. At least we have something to follow tomorrow afternoon and night, even if minor with it being so early in the season it's fun. Would be nice for most to get a little even if it's a half inch to a inch it would be fun to see early Tuesday morning. Anything more than that is a great start hopefully for more weather in the coming months. ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Offline Flash

Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #19 on: November 10, 2019, 04:51:12 PM »
Good action, try to get me a CKV reading next time. Thanks for the info though, like looking at that stuff. At least we have something to follow tomorrow afternoon and night, even if minor with it being so early in the season it's fun. Would be nice for most to get a little even if it's a half inch to a inch it would be fun to see early Tuesday morning. Anything more than that is a great start hopefully for more weather in the coming months. ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Generally, I'd advise people to cut the plumes in half. That said, 1.4" for BNA is double where it was earlier this AM. Good trends still holding it seems.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #20 on: November 10, 2019, 05:35:20 PM »
I am not expecting any accumulation outside elevated areas, but I do think everyone will see some flakes fly. Canít ask for much more than that this early in the season. Watch for flash freezing on bridges. That is going to be an issue.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline StormNine

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #21 on: November 10, 2019, 06:17:04 PM »
It coming through at night may counteract the warm ground temperatures somewhat.  I wouldn't expect much on roads although you do have to worry about Black Ice in the morning.  If one goes under a heavier band then you could see about 1 inch on grassy or elevated surfaces.  It is still early so a dusting to a half-inch should suffice for most.  Now if it is February 10th and we are in this position then that is another story. 

Online Curt

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #22 on: November 10, 2019, 07:43:07 PM »
Latest SREF (21z) Snow Amounts


Sleet Amounts


I think NWS is counting on warm ground temps to limit any accumulation of either. Short term modeling should be interesting overnight.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #23 on: November 10, 2019, 08:20:59 PM »
The HRRR 0Z is pretty consistent with the SREF.  The key to getting anyone into a solid Advisory event will be rates.  Lighter rates won't do much.  Heavier rates could net someone 1+ inch of snow and maybe some sleet on top.   


Offline snowdog

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #24 on: November 10, 2019, 09:55:21 PM »
Good to see the ol I-40 snow line on the SREF.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #25 on: November 10, 2019, 10:24:26 PM »
0Z HRRR holds serve with a swath of 2" across the Mid-State.

I'm confident that I can expect at least a half inch in my area. I'll take it!
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline Michael

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Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #26 on: November 10, 2019, 10:43:35 PM »
00z Hi-Res NAM isnít as bullish


00z GFS though (NE TN FTW!)



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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #27 on: November 11, 2019, 04:22:17 AM »
OHX has introduced ďpossibly mixed with freezing rainĒ to the zones. I guess thatís the dense Arctic air wedging in under still relatively warmer air above it.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #28 on: November 11, 2019, 06:37:16 AM »
Last night's Euro main run is in good agreement with the ensembles, around an inch for BNA.

Offline pirates1

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Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
« Reply #29 on: November 11, 2019, 07:08:40 AM »
When you say around an inch for BNA you mean total not what actually sticks, right?  So enough for a nuisance getting to school in WillCo tomorrow.

 

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