* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Fall 2019  (Read 36203 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,327
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 131
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #345 on: October 13, 2019, 08:50:34 PM »
Never saw a drop of rain from this weekends front. Looks like the system mid week will miss to the south. We will be in D4 shortly if things donít improve. Wettest winter and spring ever to severe drought in a matter of a few months. Other than a quick inch from a thundershower in mid September, I havenít had any appreciable rain since mid August.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,024
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 357
Fall 2019
« Reply #346 on: October 13, 2019, 09:04:13 PM »
Never saw a drop of rain from this weekends front. Looks like the system mid week will miss to the south. We will be in D4 shortly if things donít improve. Wettest winter and spring ever to severe drought in a matter of a few months. Other than a quick inch from a thundershower in mid September, I havenít had any appreciable rain since mid August.

Crazy times for sure. Memphis had its warmest September (like most) and itís 3rd driest September to boot. Add to that September was the 6th driest month on record- period.

And now- October is about to enter into the top 10 wettest Octoberís on record. Looks like some ups and downs over the next couples of weeks before a true below normal temp pattern sets in for the last week of October. Precip patterns are going to change too with much increased precip over the whole area.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2019, 09:06:53 PM by Curt »

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,268
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1774
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #347 on: October 15, 2019, 02:44:35 PM »
If the 12z euro is correct... we could be looking at our first fall severe weather setup... plenty instability out ahead of strong cold front later Sunday ....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,103
  • Location: Nashville
  • Stormwater Inspector
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 107
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #348 on: October 15, 2019, 05:51:30 PM »
If the 12z euro is correct... we could be looking at our first fall severe weather setup... plenty instability out ahead of strong cold front later Sunday ....

Whatever happens, please let it come through during the daytime here so we can actually see something. I'm not getting my hopes up. Looks like it's all going to come down to placement of the surface low, which the GFS has further south than the Euro. Given the track record I'm going with the latter for now.

Post Merge: October 15, 2019, 08:42:28 PM
C'mon guys I wanna here some more about this Sunday/Monday threat! If there is one, that is...
« Last Edit: October 15, 2019, 08:42:28 PM by mamMATTus, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline cgauxknox

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 691
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #349 on: October 16, 2019, 05:37:31 AM »
Saw a tweet from Jim Cantore this morning suggesting Potential Tropical Cyclone 17 may be the drought buster for the southeast this weekend.  We can hope.  ::rain::

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,268
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1774
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #350 on: October 16, 2019, 07:51:23 AM »
Whatever happens, please let it come through during the daytime here so we can actually see something. I'm not getting my hopes up. Looks like it's all going to come down to placement of the surface low, which the GFS has further south than the Euro. Given the track record I'm going with the latter for now.

Post Merge: October 15, 2019, 08:42:28 PM
C'mon guys I wanna here some more about this Sunday/Monday threat! If there is one, that is...
hopefully tonight I can dig into more ... do know SPC has a 5 day threat already across a lot of Arkansas ..
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 389
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #351 on: October 16, 2019, 09:32:29 AM »
If the 12z euro is correct... we could be looking at our first fall severe weather setup... plenty instability out ahead of strong cold front later Sunday ....

idk bruce, doesn't look to impressive as far as instability as of now to me? 750-900 maybe?

Offline NashRugger

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,093
  • Location: Biloxi, MS
  • current US Navy meteorologist & rugby player
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #352 on: October 16, 2019, 10:44:02 AM »
idk bruce, doesn't look to impressive as far as instability as of now to me? 750-900 maybe?
Not even Sunday now as that is a lot farther back to the west, into eastern OK/NE TX and the Ozarks.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,268
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1774
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #353 on: October 16, 2019, 10:52:47 AM »
Not even Sunday now as that is a lot farther back to the west, into eastern OK/NE TX and the Ozarks.
yeah the 0z euro was less impressive for us
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Crockett

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,245
  • Location: Oneida, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #354 on: October 16, 2019, 01:49:21 PM »
Well, it's officially fall. We've had our first fantasy severe weather outbreak that fizzled before it began. Many more will follow, I'm sure.  ;)

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,271
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1850
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #355 on: October 16, 2019, 02:33:38 PM »
We received between 3/4 inch and a inch last night here in Montgomery County. Heavy rain at times, no doubt the east part of the state is dry especially the southeast around the Chattanooga area. Hopefully they will get some relief soon as well. ::fingerscrossed:: ::rain::
« Last Edit: October 16, 2019, 10:08:07 PM by Clarksville Snowman »

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,519
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 133
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #356 on: October 16, 2019, 02:37:41 PM »
Well, it's officially fall. We've had our first fantasy severe weather outbreak that fizzled before it began. Many more will follow, I'm sure.  ;)

Live look at Bruce...


Offline gcbama

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 389
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #357 on: October 16, 2019, 04:50:01 PM »
Live look at Bruce...



lol....well I get it, it's been so boring for months and months...but I don't bite on anything until 48 hours out anymore lol, last years winter and this spring severe weather COMPLETE busts ruined me lol

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,114
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 128
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #358 on: October 16, 2019, 05:23:53 PM »
Quote
Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will
develop from the southern Plains into the lower OH Valley as the mid
level trough sharpens over the Plains Monday. The ECMWF and GFS are
in better agreement over the position of an intensifying surface low
compared to yesterday, with the low tracking ne into MN by Monday
afternoon. Within a broad warm sector regime (dew points lower/mid
60s) ahead of the surface front, a very strong low/mid level jet
will overspread the region ahead of the surface cold front. PWATS
expected to run near 2 standard deviations of normal along with the
strong mid/upper level forcing will result in some potential for
locally heavy rainfall in many locations.

There is also the possibility of a QLCS type line, or broken line,
of thunderstorms along/ahead of the sfc front. Modest MU CAPES
running at or below 500 J/KG seem adequate to support such a cool
season QLCS event. Of course, given the expected wind fields and
bulk shear, one could not rule out some damaging wind gusts and a
few brief tornado spin-ups in such an environment.

Various deterministic and ensemble model discrepancies still exist
in timing/placement and strength of the surface features next
Monday, esp with the timing of the surface front. Therefore, will
not get too specific with heavy rain/severe potential at this time.
However, model trends will continue to need to be monitored closely
in the coming days for possibly of increasing probabilities of both
types of impacts. Latest GEFS CIPS analogs also lend some support
for at least a minor severe weather event Monday.

The NWS of Paducah is mentioning a possible QLCS for Monday.   

Offline wfrogge

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 528
  • Location: Oakland
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #359 on: October 16, 2019, 06:36:26 PM »
Well, it's officially fall. We've had our first fantasy severe weather outbreak that fizzled before it began. Many more will follow, I'm sure.  ;)

Was still fantasy before it could get any  ::blowtorch:: behind it.  Hope yall like a thin QLCS cause yall gonna get a thin QLCS

 

* Recent Posts

Winter 2019-2020
by Dyersburg Weather
[Yesterday at 06:54:10 PM]
Dec 10-11th Snow Event
by Coach B
[Yesterday at 10:54:35 AM]

Advertisement