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Author Topic: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)  (Read 71052 times)

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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #615 on: November 11, 2018, 01:09:04 PM »
Surprisingly there is really good agreement between the GFS and Euro on the ULL mid week. Looks like SE Missouri is the sweet spot atm.

That is an interesting look for your end of the state. GFS and Euro eased back on the hard freeze, making any chance winter precip in East Tennessee unlikely, but the wrap-around on that mid-week system could produce some accumulating snow for you overnight.

Another factor is a tropical disturbance expected to roll into the Caribbean mid-week. NOAA forecasts a 60% chance of that developing.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #616 on: November 11, 2018, 01:12:10 PM »
Wouldn't be surprised by a torch around Thanksgiving


In terms of the last decade or so, we've had more Thanksgivings with the windows open than with the fireplace going.  The house tends to overheat with the oven on all day and it's 70 outside.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #617 on: November 11, 2018, 04:30:08 PM »
I spent the weekend in Kingsport with friends. First time Iíve ever been to that corner of the state. We got down to 25 there. When I got home this afternoon, my weather station reported a low temp of 23. Iím a little skeptical of that OB. Airport got down to 27 and it is only 5 miles away.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #618 on: November 11, 2018, 04:32:13 PM »
The entire state looks to receive 1-2 inches of rain this week.  The eastern end should see the heaviest amounts.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #619 on: November 11, 2018, 10:03:07 PM »
GFS be GFSín


Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #620 on: November 11, 2018, 10:37:23 PM »
It's creeping farther East.  >:D


Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #621 on: November 12, 2018, 08:07:23 AM »
This week will be winter-like for our area even if snow doesn't make an appearance.  4 days of rain with temperatures stuck in the 40's.  The Sun doesn't make a real appearance until Friday.  That's November for ya. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #622 on: November 12, 2018, 08:11:56 AM »
This week will be winter-like for our area even if snow doesn't make an appearance.  4 days of rain with temperatures stuck in the 40's.  The Sun doesn't make a real appearance until Friday.  That's November for ya.
::candle:: Goodbye sunlight, until spring...  ::candle::

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #623 on: November 12, 2018, 08:15:05 AM »
This week will be winter-like for our area even if snow doesn't make an appearance.  4 days of rain with temperatures stuck in the 40's.  The Sun doesn't make a real appearance until Friday.  That's November for ya.
this weather here can take a hike ... nothing more boring nor depressing than a cloudy cool rainy day...  now real winter means snow storms and major ice storms. Thatís winter ... or period where it torches and get a winter severe setup ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #624 on: November 12, 2018, 08:28:35 AM »
::candle:: Goodbye sunlight, until spring...  ::candle::

I think bears have the right idea--just sleep till it's over with. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #625 on: November 12, 2018, 11:04:15 AM »
Real interesting set up for west state- and perhaps just extreme west depending on track of the ULL and Wed night. General consensus has it closing off over SE Arkansas and moving into West TN. The bull's-eye for now is SE MO with lighter snow into East AR and West TN. The devil is always in the detail with these kind of things. Usually there are some surprises and disappointments' along a very thin line.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #626 on: November 12, 2018, 01:58:20 PM »
Euro come a little east. It is the most robust of all models.


Offline justinmundie

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #627 on: November 12, 2018, 02:04:51 PM »
I gotta say - itís kinda nice to watch this from afar knowing no amount of ULL craziness will cause it to snow in central alabama
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #628 on: November 12, 2018, 02:40:58 PM »
Wonder. Meg pull the trigger on some winter products overnight.. pretty good model consistency ... especially along the ms river counties and towards ne Arkansas ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #629 on: November 12, 2018, 03:26:07 PM »
Latest model runs are a little more bullish on flakes in Nashville and higher elevations in East Tennessee.

 

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