Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: JayCee on August 21, 2018, 05:16:45 AM

Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 21, 2018, 05:16:45 AM
Bridging the gap between summer and winter. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on August 21, 2018, 05:43:03 AM
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 21, 2018, 06:11:04 AM
September & October are two of my favorite months for outdoor fun.  The heat of summer begins to wane with cooler, crisp days becoming more frequent.  Yet, there's still plenty of daylight to get out and enjoy nature, the grill, and the hammock.  Yeah, I do a little work on the house and yard, too; mainly in the form of gathering broken limbs and twigs to burn in the firepit while lying in the hammock.   ;)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on August 21, 2018, 06:51:34 AM
My favorite thing about fall is... its football time in Tennessee....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: justinmundie on August 21, 2018, 05:57:37 PM
Finally in my new house and finally getting a front through in Birmingham. I miss Nashville summer all ready.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Coach B on August 22, 2018, 07:37:30 AM
Early fall preview the next couple of days with lows down in the 50s in rural areas. Enjoy it because next week looks hot/normal. :)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on August 22, 2018, 08:23:59 AM
Walking from the car into the office this morning, it already has a much more pleasant feel.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 22, 2018, 10:21:36 AM
I'll take this weather for the whole month of September please. . . (with some rain thrown in from time to time). 

Quote
Thursday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 58. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Coach B on August 23, 2018, 07:40:22 AM
I got down to 58 this morning. The hourly obs indicate fairly widespread 50s across the state outside of the UHIs.  ::applause::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 23, 2018, 05:21:50 PM
Mt. LeConte dropped to 37 this morning after only reaching the mid-50's yesterday. 


http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts (http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: EastTNWX on August 24, 2018, 09:14:40 AM
55 this morning in Farragut, feels great! LeConte was 36 this morning, I believe.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 24, 2018, 09:49:06 AM
Another day and night of awesome weather for most before summer resurges.  Even so, it's nothing out of the ordinary.  Typical summer time heat/humidity with storms increasing as the week progresses.  Could be a lot worse in August. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on August 25, 2018, 11:01:33 AM
I don't mind the summer weather (even after enjoying the pleasant temps this week). Next weekend is Labor Day weekend, and summer's days are numbered.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 25, 2018, 01:11:21 PM
I don't mind the summer weather (even after enjoying the pleasant temps this week). Next weekend is Labor Day weekend, and summer's days are numbered.

The clock's a tickin'Ö.

https://days.to/autumn-or-fall/2018 (https://days.to/autumn-or-fall/2018)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on August 25, 2018, 07:11:18 PM
The clock's a tickin'Ö.

https://days.to/autumn-or-fall/2018 (https://days.to/autumn-or-fall/2018)

Can the Mods do something about this guy?!? Trying to enjoy summer.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 25, 2018, 07:38:30 PM
Can the Mods do something about this guy?!? Trying to enjoy summer.

LOL...that's the point.  Better hurry... ;D


Besides...were just...

https://youtu.be/lMGaiSqOp58


And further it's....

https://youtu.be/9jK-NcRmVcw (https://youtu.be/9jK-NcRmVcw)






Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on August 26, 2018, 07:59:14 AM
Can the Mods do something about this guy?!? Trying to enjoy summer.
geat news for u... the latest euro looks hot. N dry moving forward ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on August 26, 2018, 12:51:20 PM
We have now reached the "some random place in Montana has a Winter Weather Advisory" portion of the winter preparation stage. 

Quote
MTZ067-271015-
/O.NEW.KBYZ.WW.Y.0033.180827T1200Z-180828T1800Z/
Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-
412 AM MDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total wet snow accumulations of 2 to 7
  inches likely over the highest parts of the Beartooth Highway.

* WHERE...The Beartooth Highway in the Beartooth Mountains.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to noon MDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slick and snowpacked road
  conditions over the Beartooth Highway, with reduced visibilities
  in snowfall.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on August 26, 2018, 04:01:09 PM
I having second thoughts now bout closing up the pool Labor Day... long range Says maybe another week least after Labor Day ...  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on August 26, 2018, 07:40:43 PM
I having second thoughts now bout closing up the pool Labor Day... long range Says maybe another week least after Labor Day ...  ::blowtorch::

Amazing how a few cooler nights plus lower sun angle starts to cool the water. Itís no longer bath water but really tolerable which I like better.


Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on August 26, 2018, 07:41:09 PM
https://youtu.be/p6fT7Ge7mWE

Really good early look at upcoming winter
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 27, 2018, 04:55:42 PM
While I love the cool, crisp days of autumn, I don't look forward to losing over an hour of daylight in both September and October.  It's the one thing about winter that makes me want to head south.  And its the one thing that keeps me from moving further north.  The only saving grace is living on the western edge of the Eastern Time Zone. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 28, 2018, 07:20:16 AM
The GFS is showing fall arriving around day 10. Iím ready.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on August 28, 2018, 09:06:11 AM
The GFS is showing fall arriving around day 10. Iím ready.
sounded cool. Till said the word gfs...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on August 28, 2018, 09:18:46 AM
The GFS is showing fall arriving around day 10. Iím ready.

"The GFS is showing ______ around day 10."

Uh oh- it must be getting to be that time of year.  ;) ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on August 28, 2018, 10:11:54 AM
The 6z GFS said, "Get yoself outta here with that fall talk!"
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on August 28, 2018, 01:37:51 PM
The 6z GFS said, "Get yoself outta here with that fall talk!"
same for the 12zgfs also....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: wfrogge on August 28, 2018, 09:55:17 PM
Bring on severe weather season #2.... Or #1 since we really didn't have one this spring
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on August 28, 2018, 11:28:37 PM
Yeah all that big storm hype for summer was just that, not complaining at all. I called for a normal type summer with little to any severe, just went the opposite of Bruce for the win. LOL!!!!!!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 29, 2018, 06:45:13 AM
The annual katydid chorus in the woods around the house has grown silent.  Their time to sing has passed, and now it's mainly just the crickets doing their thing. Love sitting on the porch at night listening to them and the occasional owl. Plan on spending some time outdoors around the fire pit this weekend to enjoy summer's last hurrah--unofficially.  The Sun's direct rays don't leave our hemisphere for another few weeks yet. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Icestorm on August 29, 2018, 09:55:32 AM
Those things are still singing loud this morning at my house, I live just outside of Murfreesboro in middle Tn.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 29, 2018, 12:24:05 PM
Those things are still singing loud this morning at my house, I live just outside of Murfreesboro in middle Tn.

July and August they're loud over here.  Over the last week, the singing has all but disappeared.  I heard a single lonely one outside the window during the night. A late bloomer. 

Here's some folklore concerning the katydid's singing. . .

Quote
The nights are filled now with the sound of katydids, the first harbingers of fall. Their night-time serenade that reprises their name, katy-DID, katy-DID, tells us Ė just a month into it Ė summer is winding down as we are currently losing about four minutes of daylight each day!

Katydid legend has it that the first frost will be 90 days from the first night the katydid sings. Unfortunately, I wasnít paying close attention, but I think I heard the fanfare of their burgeoning sympathy a week or two ago. Either would put the first frost in the first 15 days of October Ė about average.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on August 29, 2018, 04:56:51 PM
I believe I heard the first katydids in late June. They usually come in earnest in July.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on August 30, 2018, 06:06:08 PM
EPS showing a warm Eastern half of the US for September. Ready to kick the humidity in the balls, but it looks like we will have to wait a while. No early fall on the horizon.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on August 30, 2018, 06:32:28 PM
The katydids are still going crazy in my yard. Their all trying to do the sex, loudly.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 01, 2018, 05:52:38 PM
Welcome to September and the beginning of meteorological autumn (whether or not it feels like it). 

Post Merge: September 02, 2018, 08:09:53 AM
GFS shows the high latitudes growing colder by mid-month.  Right on schedule, as the sun sinks southward.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 03, 2018, 10:20:22 AM
Tropical Storm Gordon has a Katrina-like projection to it.

And I figured I may as well stick this in the Fall thread, because it's technically meteorological fall...

(Mid-90s in Boston)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: harlequin on September 03, 2018, 01:05:51 PM
Might not be the right thread, but...

Those of you more familiar with the Appalachians, is there color yet usually in mid-October (October 11-14 specifically)? I'm driving from Boston to Memphis w/ my best friend and we were curious. It'll be scenic either way. We're planning to do the Blue Ridge Parkway.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: NashRugger on September 03, 2018, 04:20:58 PM
Tropical Storm Gordon has a Katrina-like projection to it.

And I figured I may as well stick this in the Fall thread, because it's technically meteorological fall...

(Mid-90s in Boston)
In path only, thank god.
I'm stationed at Keesler AFB (KBIX) here in Biloxi, so I'll have a front row seat.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 03, 2018, 04:28:48 PM
Might not be the right thread, but...

Those of you more familiar with the Appalachians, is there color yet usually in mid-October (October 11-14 specifically)? I'm driving from Boston to Memphis w/ my best friend and we were curious. It'll be scenic either way. We're planning to do the Blue Ridge Parkway.


Late October for elevations below 1000ft.
Mid-October is for 2000ft+, typically. If you're high up in West Va. then it can come as early as early Oct.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 03, 2018, 07:10:17 PM
Might not be the right thread, but...

Those of you more familiar with the Appalachians, is there color yet usually in mid-October (October 11-14 specifically)? I'm driving from Boston to Memphis w/ my best friend and we were curious. It'll be scenic either way. We're planning to do the Blue Ridge Parkway.


Schneitzeit gave a good answer.   Late October/early November is about peak for lower elevations, unless we have an early cold snap.  But those are rare these days.  Dryness can also accelerate color change. 


I personally love the Blue Ridge Pkwy.  Asheville to Boone is beautiful anytime of the year.  By mid-October you are sure to see some color along the higher terrain.  Also, make time to stop at Mt. Mitchell in North Carolina. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Mitchell (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Mitchell)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on September 03, 2018, 07:12:31 PM
Since we're talking about Gordon here...
We spent a long weekend on the Georgia coast and on our way home this morning some very impressive cloud formations were rolling through (I took this from the passenger seat).

[attach=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Vols1 on September 03, 2018, 09:46:00 PM
Will we get much rain from Gordon?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: harlequin on September 04, 2018, 12:14:49 AM

Schneitzeit gave a good answer.   Late October/early November is about peak for lower elevations, unless we have an early cold snap.  But those are rare these days.  Dryness can also accelerate color change. 


I personally love the Blue Ridge Pkwy.  Asheville to Boone is beautiful anytime of the year.  By mid-October you are sure to see some color along the higher terrain.  Also, make time to stop at Mt. Mitchell in North Carolina. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Mitchell (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Mitchell)

Gotcha. It sounds like we should see a bit regardless. I appreciate the advice! It will be nice to be in the East for a bit. When I complete the drive, I'll have driven from Memphis to San Francisco, San Francisco to Memphis, and Boston to Memphis in 2018. Kinda wild.

Is the drive most scenic in VA or NC?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 04, 2018, 07:42:43 AM
Gotcha. It sounds like we should see a bit regardless. I appreciate the advice! It will be nice to be in the East for a bit. When I complete the drive, I'll have driven from Memphis to San Francisco, San Francisco to Memphis, and Boston to Memphis in 2018. Kinda wild.

Is the drive most scenic in VA or NC?

Wow, you are getting to see a big chunk of the country this year.  So cool.

As far as the most scenic parts of the BRP, both states have their unique beauty.  Virginia has a more rolling topography (generally) with the Parkway cutting through the foothills where you'll see scenic farmland and beautiful rural areas.  North Carolina is more rugged and mountainous for the most part.   NC is where you'll find the highest elevations on the Parkway, and some spectacular vistas, especially if you travel through on a clear autumn day.

Here is an elevation map along the length of the Parkway.

(http://www.blueridgeparkwaydaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/ElevationMapFlat.jpg) 

Happy and safe travels!

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: harlequin on September 04, 2018, 06:21:27 PM
Wow, you are getting to see a big chunk of the country this year.  So cool.

As far as the most scenic parts of the BRP, both states have their unique beauty.  Virginia has a more rolling topography (generally) with the Parkway cutting through the foothills where you'll see scenic farmland and beautiful rural areas.  North Carolina is more rugged and mountainous for the most part.   NC is where you'll find the highest elevations on the Parkway, and some spectacular vistas, especially if you travel through on a clear autumn day.

Here is an elevation map along the length of the Parkway.

(http://www.blueridgeparkwaydaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/ElevationMapFlat.jpg) 

Happy and safe travels!

Too big of a chunk! Oh, that's a great graphic. That's pretty helpful with planning. Again, thank you!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: EastTNWX on September 05, 2018, 07:29:27 PM
I know it's been touched on already, but for reference, the Sugar Mountain Oktoberfest is Oct 13-14 this year.  Every year we go (roughly the same date year to year) the ridge tops in the area are just past peak, but the valleys are at peak.  The biggest issue with the southern apps in mid October is the fog/mist/drizzle/whatever, it can hang on all day until the cold fronts sweep through. 

I'm not sure what kind of driving you're in to while in the mountains, but if you are taking the Parkway then headed to Memphis I expect you'll be taking the Tail of the Dragon, which is a very fun road! It's not for sightseeing, but two hands on the wheel and dramamine for the kids kind of driving. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 08, 2018, 05:55:08 PM
I have never understood the Flash Flood Warnings from the NWS. It has rained over 5 inches in most of Dyer County today and still pouring down. There is water everywhere. No warning. ::shrug::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on September 09, 2018, 06:13:58 PM
Received 1.72Ē of rain today. Needed it.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 09, 2018, 07:14:48 PM
Enjoying some occasional downpours and lightning now approaching from the west this evening.  Looks like a good night for sleeping.  I love the sound of thunder rumbling with rain on the roof.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 09, 2018, 07:42:49 PM
High of 69 today. I hope Bruceís pool freezes over.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 09, 2018, 09:20:09 PM
High of 69 today. I hope Bruceís pool freezes over.  ::rofl::

Felt fall like today. 50ís tonight= fall isnít far
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 09, 2018, 09:30:45 PM
High of 69 today. I hope Bruceís pool freezes over.  ::rofl::
my pool freezes at 69... we got some serious problems.... :)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 09, 2018, 10:32:48 PM
High of 69 today. I hope Bruceís pool freezes over.  ::rofl::

I probably laughed at this harder than I shouldíve.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 10, 2018, 07:42:10 AM
Had a solid 1.05" of needed rain overnight.  Good timing to keep the trees from dropping leaves too early before the autumn show. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Beth on September 10, 2018, 03:08:23 PM
Loving this weather! We got about 1.5 inches of rain.  Enjoy it now as itís going to be toasty by the weekend!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 10, 2018, 04:35:06 PM
Today is perfect. Cool and cloudy. Boring but way better then summer weather. At least i can go out without sweating now.

The day I go without sweating in the South during the summer is the day a meteor strikes Earth
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on September 10, 2018, 05:07:09 PM
We had a nice amount of rain here and the cooler temps are definitely welcomed.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 10, 2018, 06:08:28 PM
Had occasional downpours today adding up to over a half inch, so we've had about 1.6" for this event.  I think I heard the trees drinking deep this evening. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 13, 2018, 05:19:05 PM
And a glimmer of good news--Isaac looks to actually weaken into a depression, and remain that way as it heads into the Caribbean Sea.  Considering the time of year, and the location of the depression, that's awesome news.  If it degrades further, there may not be anything left to redevelop once the shear weakens.      ::applause::

Quote
Strong shear and mid-level dry air is forecast to persist for the
next day or so, which should cause Isaac to drop back to tropical
depression status on Friday.  However, the shear is forecast to
weaken by the weekend, and moisture values are expected to rise as
the system gets deeper into the Caribbean Sea.  These conditions
would normally allow for some restregthening, but the initial
character of the system is pretty weak, and it is uncertain whether
there will be much left of Isaac to take advantage of the more
conducive conditions.  Model guidance has been inconsistent on the
future of Isaac, which speaks to the lack of predictability of this
situation.  The bulk of the guidance show Isaac staying weak or
degenerating into a tropical wave over the next few days, so the
official forecast follows that consensus.  At this point it is
just best to keep an eye on the long-range forecast on each
advisory to see if there are any changes.

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 13, 2018, 08:35:40 PM
And a glimmer of good news--Isaac looks to actually weaken into a depression, and remain that way as it heads into the Caribbean Sea.  Considering the time of year, and the location of the depression, that's awesome news.  If it degrades further, there may not be anything left to redevelop once the shear weakens.      ::applause::

Not having looked into the pattern over the Caribbean, there must evidently be shear or unfavorable conditions in that area. That area is ordinarily a gas tank for tropical systems this time of year where storms intensify quickly once they pass west of the Leewards/Windwards. Not with this one, it appears.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 13, 2018, 09:32:02 PM
Looks like fall isn't coming in until the end of the month...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2018, 05:20:25 AM
Not having looked into the pattern over the Caribbean, there must evidently be shear or unfavorable conditions in that area. That area is ordinarily a gas tank for tropical systems this time of year where storms intensify quickly once they pass west of the Leewards/Windwards. Not with this one, it appears.

Isaac now downgraded to a depression this morning. Pretty amazing considering where it's at.

Isaac could've easily become a destructive monster.  Perfect track over tepid waters.  Shear and dry air are the culprit for it's lack of luster.  Or perhaps it's just Someone upstairs cutting us a break.  Either way, I'm grateful.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on September 14, 2018, 05:55:56 AM
Looks like fall isn't coming in until the end of the month...
I was gonna ask-- when does "fall" actually start this year?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2018, 09:58:49 AM
Looks like fall isn't coming in until the end of the month...
yeah.  Fall going be delayed...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 14, 2018, 10:21:19 AM
You all act like fall is supposed to start in September. Please. This is 21st century Tennessee. Summer will hang on until early November, and then winter will start.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 14, 2018, 10:58:52 AM
You all act like fall is supposed to start in September. Please. This is 21st century Tennessee. Summer will hang on until early November, and then winter will start.

Just two years ago, we were hitting consistent 90s in late October. After that nonexistent autumn, I am pleasantly surprised to see 70s in September. We had really nice temperatures last fall- even some record lows in October. That was eclipsed by a final shot of 70 degree temperatures during the first week of November. Ironically, that wacky week of 70 degree temperatures is a harbinger of winter down here.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 14, 2018, 12:38:53 PM
Just two years ago, we were hitting consistent 90s in late October. After that nonexistent autumn, I am pleasantly surprised to see 70s in September. We had really nice temperatures last fall- even some record lows in October. That was eclipsed by a final shot of 70 degree temperatures during the first week of November. Ironically, that wacky week of 70 degree temperatures is a harbinger of winter down here.
Iíd have to go back and check, but Iím pretty sure we recorded a 90 degree day in November in 2016. That would have to be the latest such occurrence.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2018, 12:49:12 PM
You all act like fall is supposed to start in September. Please. This is 21st century Tennessee. Summer will hang on until early November, and then winter will start.
almost agreed 100 percent but think be December when any true winter stuff comes rolling in...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2018, 12:52:00 PM
almost agreed 100 percent but think be December when any true winter stuff comes rolling in...
Wait we are taking about ďwinter stuffĒ?  I thought this was about the amazing period beforehand where we have comfortable temps and a chill in the air for a month or 2 beforehand.

Just looking at the GEFS temps over the next 16 days- after this weekend temps are seasonable and drop to the low 80ís with lows beginning to fall into the 50ís. Thatís about normal to me.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2018, 01:10:46 PM
Iíd have to go back and check, but Iím pretty sure we recorded a 90 degree day in November in 2016. That would have to be the latest such occurrence.

I'm thinking your right.  At the least, that was a record warm November, and I know we had 80+ up to Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 14, 2018, 01:14:11 PM
The older I get, the less I care about epic winter storms and sustained cold during the traditional months. But it just doesn't seem right to have shirt-sleeve weather at Thanksgiving and Christmas, which has been increasingly common in the past decade or so.
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 14, 2018, 01:36:51 PM
You all act like fall is supposed to start in September. Please. This is 21st century Tennessee. Summer will hang on until early November, and then winter will start.

You mean the interim transition period between fall and spring will start?

What is this ďwinterĒ you speak of? :)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2018, 01:45:14 PM
Wait we are taking about ďwinter stuffĒ?  I thought this was about the amazing period beforehand where we have comfortable temps and a chill in the air for a month or 2 beforehand.

Just looking at the GEFS temps over the next 16 days- after this weekend temps are seasonable and drop to the low 80ís with lows beginning to fall into the 50ís. Thatís about normal to me.
long range. In saying think we going bebabive norm up to December .... before we see some below normal temps for averages... gulf Alaska low seems trying park itself ... which will cause trough set in West for a while.  Just saying
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2018, 01:51:47 PM
long range. In saying think we going bebabive norm up to December .... before we see some below normal temps for averages... gulf Alaska low seems trying park itself ... which will cause trough set in West for a while.  Just saying

Translation into English please
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 14, 2018, 02:29:35 PM
Translation into English please

Iím dying   ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JHart on September 14, 2018, 03:19:22 PM
long range. In saying think we going bebabive norm up to December .... before we see some below normal temps for averages... gulf Alaska low seems trying park itself ... which will cause trough set in West for a while.  Just saying
Cophefe!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2018, 04:25:52 PM
Cophefe!

Bruce for president.   ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2018, 04:30:20 PM
Bebabive Bruce Forever!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 14, 2018, 05:08:27 PM
somethin tell me... right leg been actin up yonder... sense a real twist in the pattern... trough comin in... where fall at?.  >:D

Post Merge: September 14, 2018, 05:09:52 PM
Bruce for president.   ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam::

Make Tennessee Winters the 1970s Again!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 14, 2018, 05:12:41 PM
somethin tell me... right leg been actin up yonder... sense a real twist in the pattern... trough comin in... where fall at?.  >:D

This ain't even right.   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2018, 05:20:30 PM
somethin tell me... right leg been actin up yonder... sense a real twist in the pattern... trough comin in... where fall at?.  >:D

Post Merge: September 14, 2018, 05:09:52 PM

OMG---Bruce is really...

(http://orig00.deviantart.net/3ba9/f/2008/184/2/d/boomhauer_by_the_chosen_pessimist.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: justinmundie on September 14, 2018, 06:00:33 PM
If for no other reason, Bruce is why I still check in here. This is gold.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2018, 06:51:10 PM
See yíall having little fun.... sorry. I posted on my stupid I phone.... hate posting off this thing.lol... trying say. I see above normal temps up to December.. less changes happen faster in the pacific ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2018, 08:28:29 AM
"Fall," as in leaves falling, has arrived here.  Hickory trees are already dropping them in abundance, and if we have 30+mph winds, there may be some nearly bare trees come Monday. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on September 15, 2018, 08:55:06 AM
"Fall," as in leaves falling, has arrived here.  Hickory trees are already dropping them in abundance, and if we have 30+mph winds, there may be some nearly bare trees come Monday.
Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s all week.  Humid.  Doesn't seem like fall to me.  I checked the normals and we are seemingly in a prolonged +5 to +10 stretch on the highs and even moreso on the lows and dewpoints. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2018, 09:14:51 AM
Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s all week.  Humid.  Doesn't seem like fall to me.  I checked the normals and we are seemingly in a prolonged +5 to +10 stretch on the highs and even moreso on the lows and dewpoints. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Looks like fall.  But, no, doesn't feel like it at all. 

Growing up, September was normally the transition month to cooler.  After all, the sun is at the same position and strength as late March.  I used to keep weather records as a kid in the 80's, and there were some years we had highs in the 50's by late September on a rainy day(in eastern KY).  Doesn't happen anymore. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2018, 03:32:24 PM
Id have to disagree a bit. I Mean here further south we had highs in the 60's like a week ago or so. But i do agree usually september goes from super hot to nice weather and october goes from nice to cold by halloween time. And its like lately its a month behind or at least feels that way. But maybe could be we just notice things differently as we get older. The things and events from childhood and stuff stick with us and shape our views on things as we turn to adults. Thats just the way I see it anyways. Like with snow 1inch of snow was amazing best thing ever as a child but as we get older we see it as nothing if we still want a wonderland we need much much more or we grow to hate snow because of work ect.

I understand your point.  But overall the months of September and October are far warmer than just 20 years ago.  One cool day then back to 85F-90F+ temps is not normal for even this far south in the autumn months.  But then again, I guess this is the new normal. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 15, 2018, 06:54:05 PM
While we torch in 90 degree weather next week, Albertans in Edmonton have been getting snow.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 15, 2018, 08:03:17 PM
While we torch in 90 degree weather next week, Albertans in Edmonton have been getting snow.

At least the ďsource regionsĒ are getting colder.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 16, 2018, 05:08:49 PM
Florence blessed us with the first fall like day this month.  High of 71 with rain falling most of the day.  So far we've had .70."

Won't last long.  Once Florence departs, back to the 80's.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on September 16, 2018, 07:15:38 PM
It is September 16th and it still feels volcanic outside.  That is all.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on September 16, 2018, 09:09:25 PM
Yeah just got back from Tahoe and it was in the 30's during the early morning hours. Came back to this hot mess...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 16, 2018, 09:24:23 PM
It is September 16th and it still feels volcanic outside.  That is all.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

It sure felt nice on this side of the state today.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 16, 2018, 09:36:29 PM
It is September 16th and it still feels volcanic outside.  That is all.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

It's almost over. The finish line is in sight.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 16, 2018, 09:52:32 PM
70 degrees all day. Suck it Memphis
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 16, 2018, 10:47:35 PM
It's almost over. The finish line is in sight.
yeah ... but the finish line keeps getting pushed back ... not fair

Post Merge: September 17, 2018, 05:40:05 AM
Yeah just got back from Tahoe and it was in the 30's during the early morning hours. Came back to this hot mess...
welcome back to Tennessee...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 17, 2018, 09:14:52 AM
Should be another relatively mild to cool day from Nashville east thanks to Florence's remnants circulating overhead.  Light mist falling again this morning.

Sorry, west end.  Another day cookin'   :-\
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 17, 2018, 09:26:52 AM
Should be another relatively mild to cool day from Nashville east thanks to Florence's remnants circulating overhead.  Light mist falling again this morning.

Sorry, west end.  Another day cookin'   :-\
We will get even this winter.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 17, 2018, 09:47:10 AM
Should be another relatively mild to cool day from Nashville east thanks to Florence's remnants circulating overhead.  Light mist falling again this morning.

Sorry, west end.  Another day cookin'   :-\
ok... cause when flo gets the **** out of dodge ... yíall will get some this heat .... hang on

Post Merge: September 17, 2018, 09:53:39 AM
Least the euro long range now is advertising a big lakes cutter...thatís a start to perhaps more active weather and cooler air... think it will be a stair step down pattern from there ... to more fall like weather
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on September 17, 2018, 10:39:38 AM
Least the euro long range now is advertising a big lakes cutter...thatís a start to perhaps more active weather and cooler air... think it will be a stair step down pattern from there ... to more fall like weather
Bring it!  Summer has been nice but I like getting all 4 seasons when we can; a nice, colorful fall will be a great break before winter.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on September 17, 2018, 01:41:47 PM
yeah ... but the finish line keeps getting pushed back ... not fair

Post Merge: September 17, 2018, 05:40:05 AM
welcome back to Tennessee...
That's the thing.  I'm just not prepared to endure warmth like this in September.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 17, 2018, 01:47:41 PM
Last night Euro had a fairly massive blizzard in 10 days in North Dakota and Montana followed by a Canadian air mass coming south

If you want to see a really warm September you only have to look back 18 years ago. We were still having upper 90s and 100s to the entire month. The following December was one of the coldest on record
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on September 17, 2018, 01:58:57 PM
Last night Euro had a fairly massive blizzard in 10 days in North Dakota and Montana followed by a Canadian air mass coming south

If you want to see a really warm September you only have to look back 18 years ago. We were still having upper 90s and 100s to the entire month. The following December was one of the coldest on record
If I remember correctly East TN had massive wildfires that fall as well.  I was a first semester grad student at UT and there were days that my apartment in West Knoxville and campus were both covered with smoke.  Oddly the ridiculous heat doesn't stand out in my mind, but the smoke was something I've never forgotten.  Since the terrible fires a couple of years ago my wife and I both have good quality dust masks as part of our vehicle emergency kits as there were times the air quality got so bad even in the valley that it was difficult to breathe.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 17, 2018, 02:02:51 PM
Last night Euro had a fairly massive blizzard in 10 days in North Dakota and Montana followed by a Canadian air mass coming south

If you want to see a really warm September you only have to look back 18 years ago. We were still having upper 90s and 100s to the entire month. The following December was one of the coldest on record
yeah. The 12z euro going show big blizzard also... Montana North Dakota into Canada ... seasons first blizzard showing up.. hopefully we start see pattern change ....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: joemomma on September 17, 2018, 02:28:14 PM
What's the long range showing for the first weekend in October for middle/east TN?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 17, 2018, 02:33:10 PM
What's the long range showing for the first weekend in October for middle/east TN?
wouldnt want speculate that far out just yet....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 17, 2018, 02:54:52 PM
Bring it!  Summer has been nice but I like getting all 4 seasons when we can; a nice, colorful fall will be a great break before winter.

With recent rains, we should have decent fall color I would imagine, if it will ever cool down.  At least it's wetter this fall than the last 2 years.  Color fades quickly in dry autumns. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 17, 2018, 07:36:41 PM
GFS shows the cold air mass in place to our north. By the end of the month, most places along the U.S.-Canadian border will have witnessed the first freeze.

At least the cold air is present. We just aren't getting any of it right now. I have hope we will return to near-normal temperatures in a couple of weeks.

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 17, 2018, 07:46:30 PM
https://youtu.be/O48qA2f8qJs

 ;D

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on September 17, 2018, 07:55:10 PM
wouldnt want speculate that far out just yet....

Huh? You always speculate that far out...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 17, 2018, 08:37:41 PM
https://youtu.be/O48qA2f8qJs

 ;D

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not a lot to report that week, I guess
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 18, 2018, 03:02:26 PM
GEFS and euro have the 90s going away Friday but the real deal looks like it starts late next week= low 70ís for highs
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 18, 2018, 03:49:09 PM
GEFS and euro have the 90s going away Friday but the real deal looks like it starts late next week= low 70ís for highs

Bring. It.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 18, 2018, 03:51:30 PM
GEFS and euro have the 90s going away Friday but the real deal looks like it starts late next week= low 70ís for highs

 ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 18, 2018, 03:55:45 PM
We just had our yard aerated and seeded. This hot dry weather is not ideal. Hoping for some cooler, wetter days in the next couple of weeks.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 18, 2018, 04:41:20 PM
That's the thing.  I'm just not prepared to endure warmth like this in September.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

It's not unusual.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 18, 2018, 06:46:18 PM
We may flirt with warmest September on record ... though should cool down some next week
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 18, 2018, 06:59:19 PM
We may flirt with warmest September on record ... though should cool down some next week

Obviously things are different between the middle of the state and the plateau. We're actually running below normal here.

However, we are making a run at the wettest September on record up here. We're at 7.25" and the wettest on record is 8.89" (but records only date back to 1960 here, so...)
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 18, 2018, 07:00:09 PM
We may flirt with warmest September on record ... though should cool down some next week

Whatís the average temps at Memphis and Jackson so far? The days Gordon came through stayed in the 70ís for 4 days straight with 2 never getting out of  the low 70ís (and one with 3-4 inches of rain). That put a huge dent in any possible records over here anyways for this month.

Edit looks more record like but only in the mid Atlantic and interior Northeast. If next week goes below normal it will end up warm here but I doubt itís warmest on record.

Low temp anomaly
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180919/00777ebcc1e7a3d9425c84239d88de2a.png)

High temp anomaly
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180919/b7d486867f27e4111653dc2d50ef7148.png)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 19, 2018, 07:12:03 AM
OHX:

Quote
Next week`s cold front will signal a
significant air mass change with more autumn like readings once we
get beyond the current 7-day forecast.

Weíve been talking about it already. But, it begins to seem more real when the NWS makes first mention.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 19, 2018, 07:22:37 AM
It's a good morning. . .

(http://i67.tinypic.com/33b3k8l.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 19, 2018, 09:00:18 AM
There have been some spectacular sunrises and sunsets lately. I think some of the outer scattered clouds from the remnants of Florence were creating a nice visual effect over this way in recent days.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 19, 2018, 04:38:24 PM
Change is a comin'

(http://i68.tinypic.com/1zb9g6g.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on September 19, 2018, 05:48:35 PM
September 1925 is going to be a hard September to beat as far as record warm wise goes. 

In Nashville:
- The minimum low for the month was 61F
- The average high was 91.6 and the average low was 71.1
- 9/28 was the only day to feature a high below 80F
- It was at least 94F on 10 out of the first 11 days of the month 
- On 9/3/1925 to 9/9/1925 was a streak of 100-104F High Temperatures. 

September 1925 is pretty much the September version of December 2015 or February 2017. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: EastTNWX on September 19, 2018, 08:01:58 PM
It's starting to look much cooler in about one week's time.  Looks like it will be a pretty big step down and likely the end of summer weather for a while. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 19, 2018, 08:28:11 PM
It's starting to look much cooler in about one week's time.  Looks like it will be a pretty big step down and likely the end of summer weather for a while.

18z GFS shows highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s here next Saturday-Monday. That's way too extreme, but even if it's 10 degrees warmer than that, it'll be a major cool-down.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 19, 2018, 10:15:11 PM
It's coming folks!

(https://scontent.fbna1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/42168922_2259488940792708_1374757707906547712_o.jpg?_nc_cat=1&oh=af1f0d902d710e54ff5db8fc55c9e527&oe=5C27EC6B)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on September 20, 2018, 04:23:21 AM
It's not unusual.
Main thing is probably the morning lows.   I like to see at least some mid-60s.   These sticky, 70+ low temps are difficult to endure. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2018, 05:26:52 AM
Somebody's gonna get a lot of rain as summer and fall fight for more territory in the lower 48.  At first, summer will not relinquish the east and south, and the battle front stalls for a time in the middle of the country before fall's forces finally overwhelm summer's dwindling strength.  Go Fall!!



(http://i64.tinypic.com/53s576.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 20, 2018, 09:41:56 AM
Latest GFS run shows snow showers extending as far south as western Nebraska by the month's end.

Memphis and Nashville may end up cooler than Knoxville once this airmass moves in. It will be quite the temperature swing.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 20, 2018, 11:03:12 AM
Main thing is probably the morning lows.   I like to see at least some mid-60s.   These sticky, 70+ low temps are difficult to endure. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

We just got stuck under a ridge at the very end of summer. Hopefully, it was a last gasp. Long range showing some troughs slowly hammering away at it leaving some fall like weather at the end of the run.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 20, 2018, 11:51:58 AM
Even though it's "hot as blue blazes" (as my mom always said), there's something subtly different about the "look" of things outside. I think it's a lower sun angle, and something about the blueness of the sky and general clarity in the air... it's more of a fall look than summer now.

Just have to wait a bit longer for temperatures to follow suit.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clay on September 20, 2018, 11:57:27 AM
I bet after tomorrow we don't see 90F until May of next year. Hold me to it!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 20, 2018, 12:05:02 PM
I bet after tomorrow we don't see 90F until May of next year. Hold me to it!

Hope you're right, although I've seen 90 degrees sneak in during the first week or so of October... hope that doesn't happen, but this year, it wouldn't surprise me.  Models might be showing a cooler regime in force for a while, so I don't know.

The hot days of summer are numbered for sure at any rate.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2018, 01:13:12 PM
Even though it's "hot as blue blazes" (as my mom always said), there's something subtly different about the "look" of things outside. I think it's a lower sun angle, and something about the blueness of the sky and general clarity in the air... it's more of a fall look than summer now.

Just have to wait a bit longer for temperatures to follow suit.

About this time every year I notice it.  I think it is the lower sun angle more than anything.  Shadows are longer, so the sun is significantly weaker in brightness than May-July.  Doesn't feel like March, but the sun angle is the same.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 20, 2018, 01:15:57 PM
About this time every year I notice it.  I think it is the lower sun angle more than anything.  Shadows are longer, so the sun is significantly weaker in brightness than May-July.  Doesn't feel like March, but the sun angle is the same.

I notice it at just about sunset. It just has a different feeling to it.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 20, 2018, 01:48:33 PM
I notice the sun angle in my office at home. It has an east-facing window. Part of the year, I have to keep the blinds closed until the sun gets high enough where it's not shining right in my face. During the core weeks either side of the summer solstice, I can open the blinds because the sun is just left of my window (further north), so it doesn't come right in on me. But, as the sun in the sky is moving further and further right (further south of due east) with time each morning, it starts to come in to that part of the room through the window. I hadn't really noticed or thought about the pattern of that happening until this year.

Post Merge: September 20, 2018, 01:59:52 PM
Another interesting thing about the physics of the tilt of the earth- coming up on the autumn equinox, we are losing daylight at a faster rate right now than at any other time of the year. We'll continue to lose daylight, of course, until the first day of winter. But, the rate of daily loss begins to slow and get slower and slower. But the time of the solstice, there's very little change from one day to the next. The reverse is true on the flip side... on the first day of spring, we'll be gaining daylight the fastest of any time of the year.

Envision the earth hitting the pivot point and then start slooowly tilting the other direction. Halfway through, it's tilting the fastest from one day to the next, and then the tilt starts slowing down to the other point.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2018, 02:09:14 PM
This is also about the time the hummingbirds begin their long journey to parts of Mexico and Central America.  They have a feeding frenzy at the feeders, then suddenly they all disappear almost in one day--all based on the sun and length of day.  I just learned that last year at a conference about migration in the Smokies.  I guess they sense the same "change" in the sun we do.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JHart on September 20, 2018, 02:28:14 PM
Another interesting thing about the physics of the tilt of the earth- coming up on the autumn equinox, we are losing daylight at a faster rate right now than at any other time of the year. We'll continue to lose daylight, of course, until the first day of winter. But, the rate of daily loss begins to slow and get slower and slower. But the time of the solstice, there's very little change from one day to the next. The reverse is true on the flip side... on the first day of spring, we'll be gaining daylight the fastest of any time of the year

Inflection points Ö gotta love'em.  I use this example in calculus every semester when we are discussing derivatives.


Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2018, 02:39:43 PM
It would be so cool to have one of these. 

https://youtu.be/rcMkTapPedU (https://youtu.be/rcMkTapPedU)

And here is an interesting video about the sun's movement in our sky during one year.  Sorry, I really geek out over this stuff. 

https://youtu.be/82p-DYgGFjI (https://youtu.be/82p-DYgGFjI)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 20, 2018, 04:54:59 PM
BNA is coming in at a current temperature of 97. I don't recall us hitting the century mark at any point this summer. Not sure what the highest temperature has been so far this year. But, this is certainly close to the hottest day of the year. Wow.

Post Merge: September 20, 2018, 05:11:46 PM
And here is an interesting video about the sun's movement in our sky during one year.  Sorry, I really geek out over this stuff. 

https://youtu.be/82p-DYgGFjI (https://youtu.be/82p-DYgGFjI)

Interesting indeed. Lot to ponder there.

On a side note, I'm always somewhere between amused and bewildered when I stumble upon debates with flat-earthers (the comments section of that video).  ::doh::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2018, 06:20:18 PM

Post Merge: September 20, 2018, 05:11:46 PM
Interesting indeed. Lot to ponder there.

On a side note, I'm always somewhere between amused and bewildered when I stumble upon debates with flat-earthers (the comments section of that video).  ::doh::

When I first stumbled on flat earthers about a year ago on Youtube, I thought it was a joke--really.  Oh my surprise when I found out these people were serious. 
The fact that the human psyche can "flat" out deny the evidence of science and completely believe something that has been, beyond a doubt, proven wrong is downright scary.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 20, 2018, 07:12:16 PM
NOAA says dry and warmer than average for Oct-Dec. I will absolutely take the dryness.

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: EastTNWX on September 20, 2018, 07:42:22 PM
BNA is coming in at a current temperature of 97. I don't recall us hitting the century mark at any point this summer. Not sure what the highest temperature has been so far this year. But, this is certainly close to the hottest day of the year. Wow.

It got up to 91 in Knox today.  It's been about as hot the September as any point during the summer. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Heath22 on September 20, 2018, 08:10:34 PM
When I first stumbled on flat earthers about a year ago on Youtube, I thought it was a joke--really.  Oh my surprise when I found out these people were serious. 
The fact that the human psyche can "flat" out deny the evidence of science and completely believe something that has been, beyond a doubt, proven wrong is downright scary.

Actually there is more science for a flat earth than against. Most science for the spinning ball is psuedo science.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Matt on September 20, 2018, 08:14:49 PM
Actually there is more science for a flat earth than against. Most science for the spinning ball is psuedo science.

Oh my.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 20, 2018, 09:23:26 PM
Our low tonight is going to be our high later next week lol. Today and yesterday was the last hot days most likely. We could still see mid 80s after nexts weeks cool down but i doubt we see 90 again until march at earliest. 70s are going to feel so so good next weekend.

90 in March might break a record. I think the earliest 90 degree day for Nashville was April 9, 2011.

Post Merge: September 20, 2018, 09:24:18 PM
Actually there is more science for a flat earth than against. Most science for the spinning ball is psuedo science.

This is a joke, right?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 20, 2018, 09:33:25 PM
Actually there is more science for a flat earth than against. Most science for the spinning ball is psuedo science.

Wow...

I halfway suspect that a good portion of "flat-earthers" don't really believe it... they're just having fun/trolling, but whatever.

I'm going to assume you're just pulling our leg.  ;)

(https://memeexplorer.com/cache/550.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 20, 2018, 09:44:50 PM
Atypical of those smarter-than-thou Vandy fans   ;)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2018, 05:29:44 AM
NOAA says dry and warmer than average for Oct-Dec. I will absolutely take the dryness.

(Attachment Link)

Not that I put much faith in NOAA's long range, but that doesn't look dry.  Above normal wetness is just to our south and east, and we're in equal chances of going either way.  The storm track looks to be from the Gulf to New England. But with the coming wet period, a drier and pleasant October would be welcome before the winter months.


 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 21, 2018, 05:38:46 AM
Not that I put much faith in NOAA's long range, but that doesn't look dry.  Above normal wetness is just to our south and east, and we're in equal chances of going either way.  The storm track looks to be from the Gulf to New England. But with the coming wet period, a drier and pleasant October would be welcome before the winter months.
noaa does pretty good job actually... used think same ... storm track going be bit further north for what Iím been reading... but who really knows
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2018, 06:18:47 AM
noaa does pretty good job actually... used think same ... storm track going be bit further north for what Iím been reading... but who really knows

In a dynamic and chaotic system like the Earth's weather, I don't put much faith in anything past 30 days, and past 10 is pushing it.  Last year is a good example.  We had our cold spell in January, then it warmed.  Everything pointed to cold returning in February--models even showed it.  But the MJO, among other things, threw us a monkey wrench and we ended up with warm temps until Spring--then it finally got cold.  Models have vastly improved over the years, but still have major problems in LR.  I don't mind that, though.  Keeps us humble. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 21, 2018, 08:16:27 AM
Looks like previous long range Euro was a little quick with the pattern change. Pushes the "cooler" air mass back into the long range. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 21, 2018, 08:56:02 AM
 :( :(
Looks like previous long range Euro was a little quick with the pattern change. Pushes the "cooler" air mass back into the long range.
:(
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2018, 09:17:46 AM
BNA is coming in at a current temperature of 97. I don't recall us hitting the century mark at any point this summer. Not sure what the highest temperature has been so far this year. But, this is certainly close to the hottest day of the year. Wow.

Post Merge: September 20, 2018, 05:11:46 PM
Interesting indeed. Lot to ponder there.


Stumbled on this yesterday--first time I've seen this solar system model.  Amazing that we don't fly off into space, or that we have such a stable orbit and tilt to keep our climate and seasons reasonably established.  Earth is certainly a rare gem--so far as we know.  Someone has to be looking out for us. . .

https://youtu.be/0jHsq36_NTU (https://youtu.be/0jHsq36_NTU) 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 21, 2018, 10:57:34 AM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/wlico.png)
September avg temps through the 19th.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on September 21, 2018, 02:14:12 PM
Hopefully today is the last day in the 90s.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2018, 02:14:49 PM
Saturday looks to be the last of the "hot" days for some time (hopefully till next summer).  High of 78 on Sunday.  Gonna love that. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 21, 2018, 08:23:34 PM
Get your boats ready along I-40 in west and middle TN(image subject to change):
(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1537579180)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 22, 2018, 08:44:17 AM
While it is a little cooler out, it was awfully humid late yesterday afternoon. I soaked my shirt while mowing the grass. It was awful. Need a good front to wring out the air.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 22, 2018, 10:09:09 AM
Euro weeklies go below normal after day 10 and never look back through day 46
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: justinmundie on September 22, 2018, 12:53:51 PM
Can someone tell me what daytime temps in the 60s feel like? Asking for a friend
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 22, 2018, 01:10:28 PM
Can someone tell me what daytime temps in the 60s feel like? Asking for a friend

68 here with rain and drizzle. Feels miles apart from your 91 at the moment although thatís where we were yesterday at this time
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 22, 2018, 02:40:18 PM
Can someone tell me what daytime temps in the 60s feel like? Asking for a friend

Winter in Alabama?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2018, 03:56:21 PM
Flash Flood Warnings have already begun in parts of southeast KY where heavy, training thunderstorms are dropping too much rain too quickly.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2nk8aw7.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 22, 2018, 08:01:48 PM
A little over 2 inches here so far. Looks to be a very wet week.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2018, 08:48:43 PM
Welcome to Fall y'all.  The Sun's direct rays are crossing the equator at 9:54 EDT tonight, and won't return until March of next year. 


Quote
Equinoxes & Solstices 2018
September Equinox
Sep 22  9:54 pm
December Solstice
Dec 21  5:23 pm
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 22, 2018, 11:29:07 PM
I noticed that too, Skillsweather.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: MSR041933 on September 23, 2018, 04:21:27 AM
Yep. They kept pushing the heavier stuff closer and closer as we got closer. This morning i got a nice little shower and I got one again an hour ago. And so it begins the washing away of summer into fall (which usually is dryer then summer overall lol)

Edit. Spots slightly south of me in Wilson county (according to radar) has got 2-2.5 today. And theres some spots near Lawrenceburg thats got like 5+ today.. Crazy since we havn't even started with the real rains thats coming

This is correct. Picked up 6.25 inches Friday into Saturday..and already received another 2.5 overnight tonight!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 23, 2018, 06:51:59 AM
Has something changed? My forecast has highs staying in the low 80s all week and next weekend. What happen to the 70s. 80 is average for right now.

The first trough (and the cool air) doesn't really make a deep push into our area.  The second trough by late week will deliver a better brand of air, but still not fall-like.  In any event, I'll enjoy 58 for a low by next Friday (if it doesn't change by then).

Quote
The frontal passage will occur late Wednesday but expect the front will slow down as the trough races quickly off to the northeast late Wednesday.

Quick return flow will push this boundary back to the north on
Thursday. A weak trough is forecast to move along this boundary with
elevated chances of showers and storms continuing into Thursday. A
more robust rough will pass to the north late Thursday into early
Friday with the front finally passing to the south. With this, drier
and slightly cooler conditions are forecast Friday night into
Saturday.

Temperatures through the long-term forecast period will remain near
to slightly above average for late September.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXRocker on September 23, 2018, 07:58:29 AM
Has something changed? My forecast has highs staying in the low 80s all week and next weekend. What happen to the 70s. 80 is average for right now.
Meanwhile, in Hopkinsville....Today: 70/65, Monday:76/68, Tuesday:80/66, Wednesday: 74/56, Thursday:75/55   ::drowning::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 23, 2018, 12:57:47 PM
Yesterday the forecast high for today was 78.  Already up to 84 with summertime humidity to boot.  Not a day to open the windows, as I had hoped. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: spanarkle08 on September 24, 2018, 08:59:59 AM
Can not believe Carroll Co is not under a flash flood warning...have pick up 1.7 inches as of 6 this morning to go with the 1.8 from Sat. and its been poring for the past hour and a half
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 24, 2018, 11:18:17 AM
Long range models: Fall fought the Southeast Ridge...and the, Southeast Ridge won.

The wait for fall temps continues....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 24, 2018, 01:44:23 PM
If summer is anything like last winter, it will be hot until mid November, then turn cold.  Fall gets skipped over like spring. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on September 24, 2018, 01:47:06 PM
I have confidence in predicting that fall weather will arrive before UT wins an SEC football game.  We'll most likely also see winter, spring, summer, and at least part of another fall....

Today certainly feels like a dreary fall day in Knoxville.  Even though it isn't that cool with the cloud cover and rain, and the forecast for the next several days, we may go all week without seeing the sun.  I'm glad for the break from the heat, but would rather have those beautiful fall days where it's cool and also sunny.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 24, 2018, 02:39:19 PM
Long range models: Fall fought the Southeast Ridge...and the, Southeast Ridge won.

The wait for fall temps continues....
yeah 12z euro builds the ridge right back in long range .... looks be steady dose mid 80s for some highs
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 24, 2018, 04:04:39 PM
Wettest day of the year so far for me. 4.15Ē in the gauge and itís still coming down.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Jilly on September 24, 2018, 05:00:17 PM
Did not expect a tornado warning today!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 24, 2018, 06:56:07 PM
Please tell me it isnít going to rain Saturday evening. Iíll be at Ascend Ampitheater for Nine Inch Nails and Iíd prefer a dry evening since Iím sitting on the lawn.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 24, 2018, 07:26:37 PM
Looks like it could easily rain another 2-3Ē overnight unless all that convection collapses. This could wind up being one of the wettest days weíve had in years. No flood watches out either. Iím a little surprised.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 24, 2018, 10:24:21 PM
We'll see what the NWS recorded in the ol' rain gauge today, but I'm guessing that today officially made this the wettest September on record up here. I'm completely over this weather pattern.  ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 25, 2018, 05:41:49 AM
Areas in the foothills east of Knoxville have yet to see a half inch of rain from this system.  Our heaviest rain looks to come Wednesday and Thursday as middle and west TN catch a break.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 25, 2018, 06:50:48 AM
Total from 630 yesterday morning to 630 this morning was 5.90Ē. Wettest 24 hour period Iíve recorded since moving into my house in October 2013. It was still raining when I left for work as well. I tried to go for a run this morning between showers. That did not work. I poured about a half cup of water out of my running shoes when I finished.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on September 25, 2018, 07:50:47 AM
Please tell me it isnít going to rain Saturday evening. Iíll be at Ascend Ampitheater for Nine Inch Nails and Iíd prefer a dry evening since Iím sitting on the lawn.

Downward Spiral at Vandys Memorial Gym was the best show I ever saw. An then unknown Marilyn Manson opened followed by Jim Rose Freak Show. Then NIN. Epic. Enjoy and wish I was joining you!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Coach B on September 25, 2018, 09:09:37 AM
yeah 12z euro builds the ridge right back in long range .... looks be steady dose mid 80s for some highs

The average high for Nashville on this date is still around 80. However, the average lows this time of year outside of the heat island should be down in the low to mid 50s. I'm ready for some of that.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 25, 2018, 09:13:48 AM
OHX is forecasting upper 50s or near 60 for lows on a couple of mornings after the front clears tomorrow. 70s for highs on Thursday, but we're back in the 80s over the weekend.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 25, 2018, 01:52:11 PM
The Euro says 5-6Ē more rain in the southern valley by Friday evening. Iím very surprised to not see any flood products out. I can guarantee flooding if half that much rain falls. My area is totally saturated.
Edit: seems somebody was listening. There is a hydrologic outlook out for SE TN now.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 25, 2018, 02:50:13 PM
Let the Southeast Ridge have it's fun right now, then beat that sucker into submission come December.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 25, 2018, 02:57:55 PM
Let the Southeast Ridge have it's fun right now, then beat that sucker into submission come December.
going be interesting ... ridge seems be little strong for this time year ... day 10 in eurontoday does offer some hope ... but itís day10
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 25, 2018, 04:19:44 PM
Long range says no rest for the water logged...



(http://i67.tinypic.com/axm98y.gif)


A pretty amazing wet pattern occuring over much of the country in what is normally a drier time of the year. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 25, 2018, 09:32:18 PM
Long range says no rest for the water logged...



(http://i67.tinypic.com/axm98y.gif)


A pretty amazing wet pattern occuring over much of the country in what is normally a drier time of the year.

Iíve come to the conclusion that I am simply not going to catch a break. Itís time for a career change.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 26, 2018, 04:57:18 AM
Hopefully we will get good fall colors out of this.

Anything beats autumn 2016, anything.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 26, 2018, 06:27:00 AM
Surprise, surprise HTX radar has had a hardware failure. I swear it has to be the least reliable radar in existence. It's possible to get coverage from FFC but rainfall estimates are usually off.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 26, 2018, 06:38:39 AM
Iíve come to the conclusion that I am simply not going to catch a break. Itís time for a career change.

What do you do?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 26, 2018, 08:28:58 AM
What do you do?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Erosion Prevention and Sediment Control Inspector. I work in Franklin where the rules and regulations are super strict.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on September 26, 2018, 11:41:04 AM
I have a meeting this afternoon.  Right now I'm wondering if I should take the truck or the kayak or put the kayak in the back of the truck just in case I have to paddle back.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 26, 2018, 11:50:46 AM
Schools are being called at noon here today. I doubt they will go tomorrow either. Central and northern parts of the county got 4-6Ē of rain (and some wind damage) just last night. Looks like we are under the fire hose for the next 36 hours or so.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on September 26, 2018, 11:58:39 AM
Knox County is now under a Flash Flood Warning until 7PM.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 26, 2018, 01:18:43 PM
Someone in Soddy Daisy was killed by floodwaters this morning. The school cancellation was announced right after this happened:

http://www.chattanoogan.com/2018/9/26/376928/Woman-Dies-In-Flood-Waters-At-Soddy.aspx (http://www.chattanoogan.com/2018/9/26/376928/Woman-Dies-In-Flood-Waters-At-Soddy.aspx)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 26, 2018, 01:59:10 PM
Strong front on 12z euro long range ... but it never makes it to us ... that se ridge means business ... strong ridge for this time year ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 26, 2018, 02:09:43 PM
Someone in Soddy Daisy was killed by floodwaters this morning. The school cancellation was announced right after this happened:

http://www.chattanoogan.com/2018/9/26/376928/Woman-Dies-In-Flood-Waters-At-Soddy.aspx (http://www.chattanoogan.com/2018/9/26/376928/Woman-Dies-In-Flood-Waters-At-Soddy.aspx)

And here's why...

[url]https://www.facebook.com/jessica.keith1/posts/10212666492886509?__xts__[0]=68.ARDeDa05P2yUawho413s5JH5ocXxFghKTI_wgprar6fljf0Qh17bCu0rhqCqtB3tGqNZZ3buqyiu6yZGZRFX4p73CyKH02345NBzRNVQy-z7KNaP3igZjHZSDNW7moJ1ObHwQ2RW1cXFPBhBg5JlewOdMCUheqL6k6gJngxfftpZWu9n2ZtrXbuC-U_sPMZIQ6y4mrvPMpHYU2JcBiXLJ7v3oenr8Z5rGKq7lfveRg&__tn__=C-R[url]

I can certainly see now why she would have left her house. Very sad. I'm definitely familiar with Little Soddy Creek but this might be the most out of control I've ever seen it.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 26, 2018, 02:14:11 PM
Nice much more fall like day here in west state- cloudy breezy and 70.

Cold air wonít really push further south until the MJO moves out of 8-1, which is about 10-14 days. Euro weeklies totally support below normal from 2nd week of October onward- starting from West and pushing East.  Phases 8Ė2 are favorably for cold air in winter but not in early Fall. That will change as we move into November.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 26, 2018, 04:11:29 PM
Possible tornado in Fentress Co. this morning.

https://www.wkrn.com/news/possible-tornado-causes-damage-in-fentress-county/1476461551 (https://www.wkrn.com/news/possible-tornado-causes-damage-in-fentress-county/1476461551)

Post Merge: September 26, 2018, 04:57:39 PM
Average low in Knoxville for today is 56.  This morning's low was 70--the warmest low temperature recorded for the date. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 27, 2018, 07:10:34 AM
Upper 50ís and rain. Itís been awhile.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 27, 2018, 07:51:59 AM
Upper 50ís and rain. Itís been awhile.
yeah I actually broke out long sleeve shirt first time season this morning ... getting tired this rainy pattern... last night gfs long still showing a stubborn ridge  over east heading through first week October...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 27, 2018, 07:58:27 AM
I had 1.5" of rain yesterday, and it's pouring this morning.  I'm going out on a limb here by saying that I think this year's wildfire season will be one of the weakest in the last decade.  I can't even get a fire started in the fire pit at this point.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 27, 2018, 08:03:08 AM
This stretch has come at a perfect time for me. We had our yard aerated and seeded and are supposed to keep the yard watered daily for three weeks ($$). I haven't had to water at all for the last week. That will save on the water bill.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 27, 2018, 09:41:12 AM
When I left the house this morning my storm total rain was 7.56Ē since Tuesday morning. Looks like another 1-2Ē today. Wettest September since 2009.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 27, 2018, 11:09:56 AM
Just. Over 10 inches rain my area now less week ... enough please
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on September 27, 2018, 12:29:23 PM
Feels great out there today.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 27, 2018, 04:12:23 PM
Freeze/Frost warnings cover all of North Dakota and parts of adjoining states.  Fall is creeping in, even if slowly. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 28, 2018, 07:05:00 AM
Storm total for this event was 8.33Ē for me. Many areas to my west got closer to 12Ē. If it hasnít been so dry in the week leading up to this event it would have been worse. As it is the swimming portion of this weekends Ironman has been cancelled due to strong currents.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 28, 2018, 07:57:42 AM
I had another 1.85" of rain overnight, which brings the storm total up to 3.79" since this started.  Up to 7.84" for the month.  Definitely one of the wettest Septembers I can remember. 

Post Merge: September 28, 2018, 07:59:26 AM
Storm total for this event was 8.33Ē for me. Many areas to my west got closer to 12Ē. If it hasnít been so dry in the week leading up to this event it would have been worse. As it is the swimming portion of this weekends Ironman has been cancelled due to strong currents.

I bet the Ocoee is a sight to behold after that much rain. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 28, 2018, 02:50:11 PM
I had another 1.85" of rain overnight, which brings the storm total up to 3.79" since this started.  Up to 7.84" for the month.  Definitely one of the wettest Septembers I can remember. 

Post Merge: September 28, 2018, 07:59:26 AM
I bet the Ocoee is a sight to behold after that much rain.
Believe it or not, the heavy rain mostly stayed west of the Ocoee basin. They have had the spillway open this week, but flows look comparable to standard rafting season releases. My project site in Polk Co. only recorded 4.3Ē all week.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 28, 2018, 03:31:54 PM
Believe it or not, the heavy rain mostly stayed west of the Ocoee basin. They have had the spillway open this week, but flows look comparable to standard rafting season releases. My project site in Polk Co. only recorded 4.3Ē all week.

Looks like most areas along the NC border and in the mountains were spared the worst.  Some sharp gradients in precipitation amounts are seen near the NC border compared to just 20 miles west. 

(http://i67.tinypic.com/2zqzfxd.jpg)

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 29, 2018, 04:28:32 AM
0z euro now says... se ridge.. is not going to give up... just quite yet in the extended... ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on September 29, 2018, 11:10:09 AM
I think that Leslie east of Bermuda is going to help strengthen the ridge and push it further west towards our area.  Like Curt said, the MJO, although is favorable for the winter time, is not that favorable for us in September/October.  MJO 8-1 climatology favors ridging in the East and a Cold Northern Plains. 

Remember that some Weak to Moderate El-Nino's don't get that cold till January anyway.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 29, 2018, 11:42:00 AM
I think that Leslie east of Bermuda is going to help strengthen the ridge and push it further west towards our area.  Like Curt said, the MJO, although is favorable for the winter time, is not that favorable for us in September/October.  MJO 8-1 climatology favors ridging in the East and a Cold Northern Plains. 

Remember that some Weak to Moderate El-Nino's don't get that cold till January anyway.

I wouldn't mind a long mild stretch into late fall.  We didn't have a spring, so a long autumn with perfect temps in the 60's would be welcome before winter comes roaring in.  What I don't want is tempertures lingering in the 80's forever.   


Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 29, 2018, 12:44:34 PM
I wouldn't mind a long mild stretch into late fall.  We didn't have a spring, so a long autumn with perfect temps in the 60's would be welcome before winter comes roaring in.  What I don't want is tempertures lingering in the 80's forever.
fixing get ... enjoy... no pattern change soon
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 29, 2018, 02:28:13 PM
EPS 46 day average temps
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180929/72508b26c6e76d8083b9dc14f0bd3507.png)

EPS Control Snowfall through day 46
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180929/dcf42568ac3e2dfada55ea9fc617dbf3.png)

Pattern change is in the 11-16 day time frame as cold air takes over West to East- greatest anomalies West. Wouldnít be surprised to see frost and freeze by 3rd and 4th week of October - pretty close to on time outside UHI.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 29, 2018, 02:55:46 PM
Oh goodness- fantasy posts have been initiated. We'll be looking at these long-range runs all through October while it's 84 degrees out. The SE Ridge isn't going anywhere until late October.

The cold airmass is in place to our north around 50 degrees latitude. Snowpack is building in Canada. So at least it isn't an utter torch for all of North America. Pacific NW looks chilly next month. Same with the Northern Plains. Possibly above average snowfall in those states early on.
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 29, 2018, 03:47:07 PM
Oh goodness- fantasy posts have been initiated. We'll be looking at these long-range runs all through October while it's 84 degrees out. The SE Ridge isn't going anywhere until late October.

The cold airmass is in place to our north around 50 degrees latitude. Snowpack is building in Canada. So at least it isn't an utter torch for all of North America. Pacific NW looks chilly next month. Same with the Northern Plains. Possibly above average snowfall in those states early on.


Well since thereís no accumulating snow for anyone on this board on the long range EPS, I wouldnít hardly call that a fantasy map.

I think both maps show where the cold air is most likely to be over the next 6 weeks regardless of snow. Clearly, it dives into the central part of the country starting next week and slowly spreads east as October and November ensue and as the MJO starts to rotate into phases that promote cold air into the east.

In the meantime, enjoy some some low humidity 80ís for the next couple of weeks along with Bruceís cryptic daily posts about no pattern change.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 29, 2018, 03:58:47 PM

Well since thereís no accumulating snow for anyone on this board on the long range EPS, I wouldnít hardly call that a fantasy map.

I think both maps show where the cold air is most likely to be over the next 6 weeks regardless of snow. Clearly, it dives into the central part of the country starting next week and slowly spreads east as October and November ensue and as the MJO starts to rotate into phases that promote cold air into the east.

In the meantime, enjoy some some low humidity 80ís for the next couple of weeks along with Bruceís cryptic daily posts about no pattern change.
yeah. But pretty close to home ... showing some ... letís see if this verifies.  Or the Epps is drunk ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 29, 2018, 04:03:59 PM

Well since thereís no accumulating snow for anyone on this board on the long range EPS, I wouldnít hardly call that a fantasy map.

I think both maps show where the cold air is most likely to be over the next 6 weeks regardless of snow. Clearly, it dives into the central part of the country starting next week and slowly spreads east as October and November ensue and as the MJO starts to rotate into phases that promote cold air into the east.

In the meantime, enjoy some some low humidity 80ís for the next couple of weeks along with Bruceís cryptic daily posts about no pattern change.

I mostly kid, Curt, and I know that was not your intention. But let's be honest, it takes a single image of a long-range forecast model with 0.25 inches of snow over Tennessee to yank some people's chains.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 29, 2018, 04:34:24 PM
I mostly kid, Curt, and I know that was not your intention. But let's be honest, it takes a single image of a long-range forecast model with 0.25 inches of snow over Tennessee to yank some people's chains.

Oh yes. When the first sleet pellet hits the boundaries of this good state- someone will have it covered.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 29, 2018, 06:45:38 PM
Winter will get here all in good time.  In the meantime, I'm loving the upper 60's at sunset while listening to the crickets, owls, and other nightly nature sounds.  So relaxing.  All the windows are open, and I'm enjoying the now
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 30, 2018, 08:38:37 AM
Well those 2 days of fall were awesome...now back to summer. Long range Euro shows no break through the 10 day run.  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on September 30, 2018, 09:00:09 AM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Do you all believe in the Great Blowtorch?  If you wait for him on Halloween night he will bear great gifts of mosquitos, 80s and lower 90s, and humidity. 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

He might eventually bring a good deal of rain as well.   

Post Merge: September 30, 2018, 09:04:26 AM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

It should be noted that 2002 pops up as an analog on multiple occasions.  That will be something to watch as it could strengthen the case of using 2002-03 as an analog for this upcoming winter.     
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 30, 2018, 09:34:14 AM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Do you all believe in the Great Blowtorch?  If you wait for him on Halloween night he will bear great gifts of mosquitos, 80s and lower 90s, and humidity. 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

He might eventually bring a good deal of rain as well.   

Post Merge: September 30, 2018, 09:04:26 AM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

It should be noted that 2002 pops up as an analog on multiple occasions.  That will be something to watch as it could strengthen the case of using 2002-03 as an analog for this upcoming winter.   
agree with NOAA ... we see change to much cooler ... be later December ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 30, 2018, 09:56:14 AM
agree with NOAA ... we see change to much cooler ... be later December ...

No.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 30, 2018, 11:17:53 AM
Beautiful day out.  Blue skies & a light breeze stirring the leaves to fall from the hickories.  Wish the 70's would just keep going for awhile.  Not looking forward to the mid 80's coming back mid-week.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 30, 2018, 12:47:03 PM
No.
pacific better do a complete overhaul... we going get any much cooler soon... we see
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 30, 2018, 01:29:45 PM
pacific better do a complete overhaul... we going get any much cooler soon... we see

Bruce, are you alright? Asking for a friend
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 30, 2018, 01:49:01 PM
Bruce, are you alright? Asking for a friend
too much heat.... lmao... least my patriots kicking a$$
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 30, 2018, 02:09:39 PM
too much heat.... lmao... least my patriots kicking a$$

They need to be after a terrible start to the season
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 30, 2018, 04:15:23 PM
Model watching is easy right now. Go to Euro 500mb at 240 hours, anything changed, nope, curse at current pattern, close and come back in 12 hours. Wash, rinse, repeat in less than a minute.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 30, 2018, 09:41:32 PM
Model watching is easy right now. Go to Euro 500mb at 240 hours, anything changed, nope, curse at current pattern, close and come back in 12 hours. Wash, rinse, repeat in less than a minute.
Only going to have to wait 6 hours. Euro going to run at 18z and 6z. It will add to the madness for winter threats.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: harlequin on September 30, 2018, 10:53:26 PM
We are expecting our first rain in the 4 months I've lived out here! Rain rams up in the Bay Area from November to April. The average precip is the same as the state of Tennessee during the winter months whereas the average rain for June, July, August, and September combined is under a half inch.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DoV8bfjXUAAiORs.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on October 01, 2018, 06:43:05 AM
Only going to have to wait 6 hours. Euro going to run at 18z and 6z. It will add to the madness for winter threats.

Interesting. The more the merrier. The less I have to look at the GFS the better.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 01, 2018, 08:02:20 AM
Welcome to October.  The average high this time of year for the Knoxville area is usually around the middle to upper 70's.  Unfortunately, that won't be the case for the next 7 days with temperatures climbing into the middle 80's every afternoon.  Summer is just hanging around like the mosquitos after all that rain.  Both need to move on. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 01, 2018, 08:22:53 AM
Welcome to October.  The average high this time of year for the Knoxville area is usually around the middle to upper 70's.  Unfortunately, that won't be the case for the next 7 days with temperatures climbing into the middle 80's every afternoon.  Summer is just hanging around like the mosquitos after all that rain.  Both need to move on.
i thought you might enjoy the sound of mosquitoes buzzing around your ear , while sitting on porch at night....lol
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 01, 2018, 09:39:03 AM
Euro has impressive snow cover across the northern plains for October for the next 10 days. In fact, I donít know if Iíve ever seen that much expansive snow cover this early up north.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 01, 2018, 10:33:23 AM
Euro has impressive snow cover across the northern plains for October for the next 10 days. In fact, I donít know if Iíve ever seen that much expansive snow cover this early up north.
within a week... global s. Should start to really show  massive pattern change ... perhaps? Fingers crossed
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 01, 2018, 12:09:22 PM
within a week... global s. Should start to really show  massive pattern change ... perhaps? Fingers crossed

Where did you see this? Based on what I've been looking at, a major pattern change is at least a couple weeks away.

The setup will absolutely be setting record highs in the Midwest next week.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 01, 2018, 01:08:41 PM
This about sums it up...

https://youtu.be/-MtJoQ8Jc9M (https://youtu.be/-MtJoQ8Jc9M)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 01, 2018, 01:18:27 PM
Where did you see this? Based on what I've been looking at, a major pattern change is at least a couple weeks away.

The setup will absolutely be setting record highs in the Midwest next week.
was basing it off epps... which been showing some big snow cover In upper Midwest as curt alluded to earlier... going into 2nd week October ...

Post Merge: October 01, 2018, 01:20:13 PM
This about sums it up...

https://youtu.be/-MtJoQ8Jc9M (https://youtu.be/-MtJoQ8Jc9M)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
thats. To funny there... lol
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 01, 2018, 02:37:21 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181001/c1d5dfb15badabcdbb227801a2c0942c.png)

Hereís why itís warm. We are in MJO phases 8 and moving into 1. The change from 1 to 2 is the pattern flipper.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181001/0c01de4f6a410e2fedf004128e8c801a.png)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on October 01, 2018, 03:29:17 PM
This about sums it up...

https://youtu.be/-MtJoQ8Jc9M (https://youtu.be/-MtJoQ8Jc9M)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If that aint the truth. I had a good lather going, helping my kids put out Halloween decor in the front yard yesterday.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on October 02, 2018, 02:21:37 PM
Well, not much looks to be changing in the long term. So, while we "enjoy" the lack of fall, at least we can have a laugh...

(https://heavyeditorial.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/cover16.jpg?quality=65&strip=all)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 02, 2018, 02:42:43 PM
Well, not much looks to be changing in the long term. So, while we "enjoy" the lack of fall, at least we can have a laugh...

(https://heavyeditorial.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/cover16.jpg?quality=65&strip=all)

Thanks a lot.  You've ruined pumpkin pie for me.    ::sick::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 02, 2018, 02:50:36 PM
Well, not much looks to be changing in the long term. So, while we "enjoy" the lack of fall, at least we can have a laugh...

(https://heavyeditorial.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/cover16.jpg?quality=65&strip=all)
lmao
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 02, 2018, 04:30:05 PM
I told someone the other day that September was the "new August."

I guess it follows that October is the new September. Hopefully, maybe, we'll have a cool snap toward the middle or latter part of the month.  ::shrug::

Maybe the leaves will start changing by Christmas. lol
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 03, 2018, 06:18:00 AM
At least the season has changed in some areas of the lower 48...

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=48.2361&lon=-101.2961#.W7Sk6BZOnYU


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2018, 08:22:48 AM
Starting to hear and read 73. 74 one top analogs for this up coming winter ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on October 03, 2018, 10:36:09 AM
The averages have definitely risen over the last few years as they are calculated using a new data set.  The 1970-2000 average in the Hopkinsville/Clarksville area for September was around 83F and now 1981-2010 (I assume that is what is being used) is now around 85F.  October's average high used to be around 71-72 and now it is about 75F.  I wonder if we get another 2-3 degree rise in our averages in the Fall Months with the next set of averages.   

Post Merge: October 03, 2018, 10:38:49 AM
Another issue we have had is that the PNA has gone sharply negative sending the cold air out West and strengthening the SE Ridge. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

It should be heading closer to neutral by mid-month which will be one thing that should allow for this pattern to break along with us moving out of the MJO 7,8, and 1 stages which we want in the winter but not in the fall.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 03, 2018, 10:49:49 AM
Starting to hear and read 73. 74 one top analogs for this up coming winter ...

73-74 Not even close. ENSO was strong La Nina so that eliminates it right out of the gate.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2018, 10:53:44 AM
73-74 Not even close. ENSO was strong La Nina so that eliminates it right out of the gate.
what I thought ... was like no way ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 03, 2018, 12:58:06 PM
Hope this pattern changes to cooler soon if for no other reason but the sake of our winter.  One thing I've noted over the years is that a very warm late fall usually turns into a lack luster winter.  2016 is the most recent example of a very warm Oct-Nov, and a non-existent winter for most of us. 
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 03, 2018, 01:27:37 PM
But remember- we were headed into the unusual super El NiŮo which is usually a warm pattern almost everywhere. That January winter storm was a total thread the needle event- and does show that even super El NiŮo can have some winter storm potential. We are now headed to a weak based central pacific El NiŮo- nothing like the SST in 2016.

Like Steven said, this pattern is about to break starting next week after the MJO leaves phase one. The latest euro weeklies go below normal after day 10 starting West then moving east through the entirety of the run. That jives with MJO phases 2-5 in the fall which is a cool pattern. I will say the leaves may peak later this year though.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 03, 2018, 01:40:48 PM
But remember- we were headed into the unusual super El NiŮo which is usually a warm pattern almost everywhere. That January winter storm was a total thread the needle event- and does show that even super El NiŮo can have some winter storm potential. We are now headed to a weak based central pacific El NiŮo- nothing like the SST in 2016.

Like Steven said, this pattern is about to break starting next week after the MJO leaves phase one. The latest euro weeklies go below normal after day 10 starting West then moving east through the entirety of the run. That jives with MJO phases 2-5 in the fall which is a cool pattern. I will say the leaves may peak later this year though.

Good point.  That was an unusual pattern.  Most of the good winters I can remember lately seem to have a theme of cold late in fall.  Not sure which year it was, but in 2013 or 2014 we even had about an inch of snow on Thanksgiving--a rarity here.  A colder late autumn seems to foretell a cold winter coming. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2018, 02:02:31 PM
Good point.  That was an usual pattern.  Most of the good winters I can remember lately seem to have a theme of cold late in fall.  Not sure which year it was, but in 2013 or 2014 we even had about an inch of snow on Thanksgiving--a rarity here.  A colder late autumn seems to foretell a cold winter coming.
2014....

Post Merge: October 03, 2018, 02:26:01 PM
12z euro. Still has u above normal temp wise whole run...ridge does cave in finally though...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on October 03, 2018, 03:10:15 PM
2002 has shown up on some of the analogs for this current pattern.  2002 had 80s leading up all the way to the Veteran's Day Weekend Outbreak.  2002-03 is starting to shape up as a solid analog it has even had a similar type of Atlantic Hurricane Season.

2002-03 was a Modoki/West-Based El-Nino as well.  1957-58, 2009-10, and 2014-15 were also Modoki.  I wonder if anyone has a list of the Modoki years?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on October 03, 2018, 08:48:45 PM
This may need to go into the Winter Thread

Modoki El-Nino's (those that were strong Modoki)

1957-58
1963-64
1965-66
1968-69
1977-78
1986-87 (this was the first one that scientists started to recognize as being different)
1991-92
1994-95
2002-03
2004-05
2009-10
2014-15

2006-07 was right on the traditional/modoki edge.  It was a bit further east than a normal Modoki but not as far west or quite-as basin wide as a traditional. 

Traditional El-Nino's
1951-52
1976-77
1982-83
1987-88
1997-98

One thing to note is that the PDO is very important.  The lousy winters that were Modoki (1991-92, 1994-95, and 2004-05) had a neutral or negative PDO.  The rocking winters of 2002-03, 2009-10, and 2014-15 had a +PDO. If the PDO stays negative (it is currently slightly negative) the cold and snowy east outlook could bust. 

 

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 03, 2018, 08:59:07 PM


One thing to note is that the PDO is very important.  The lousy winters that were Modoki (1991-92, 1994-95, and 2004-05) had a neutral or negative PDO.  The rocking winters of 2002-03, 2009-10, and 2014-15 had a +PDO. If the PDO stays negative (it is currently slightly negative) the cold and snowy east outlook could bust.
That sounds worrisome.  Is the PDO known to flip to a different phase quickly?  As in, is there hope for a change to a +PDO over the next few months before winter arrives?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2018, 09:03:44 PM
That sounds worrisome.  Is the PDO known to flip to a different phase quickly?  As in, is there hope for a change to a +PDO over the next few months before winter arrives?
no one on this board can really answer that... cause every year is different... only the man up stairs really knows what is going take place... gut feeling were headed towards a milder winter... ::bangingheadintowall::.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 03, 2018, 09:24:42 PM
This may need to go into the Winter Thread

Modoki El-Nino's (those that were strong Modoki)

1957-58
1963-64
1965-66
1968-69
1977-78
1986-87 (this was the first one that scientists started to recognize as being different)
1991-92
1994-95
2002-03
2004-05
2009-10
2014-15

2006-07 was right on the traditional/modoki edge.  It was a bit further east than a normal Modoki but not as far west or quite-as basin wide as a traditional. 

Traditional El-Nino's
1951-52
1976-77
1982-83
1987-88
1997-98

One thing to note is that the PDO is very important.  The lousy winters that were Modoki (1991-92, 1994-95, and 2004-05) had a neutral or negative PDO.  The rocking winters of 2002-03, 2009-10, and 2014-15 had a +PDO. If the PDO stays negative (it is currently slightly negative) the cold and snowy east outlook could bust.

Keep in mind the modoki ninos of 63-64 and 65-66 both of which were negative PDO- had brutal periods of snow and cold temps. In fact both winters had record snowfall and temps below zero for much of the state- including Memphis 14 inch pre Christmas snowfall and record low temp of -13 (December 63). QBO  and low solar come into play as well. We will probably stay low negative to neutral QBO - very similar to the winter of 63-64.

What you donít (if you like cold and snow)want is extreme enso (positive or negative), strong negative PDO (although December 63 was strong negative), and strong positive QBO.  (PDO is a bit more variable than QBO.) Any one of those above mentioned can override another. None of those are likely this winter.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 03, 2018, 09:31:06 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181004/d0ad61892682016d54e16bcb82c4d2f0.png)

This is an important difference between the winters of the 60-80ís and the 90ís-now. The positive AMO is probably about to go negative in the next few years.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 03, 2018, 11:07:35 PM
Could we not post about gut feelings? Don't make predictions about something you can't back up with evidence.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 04, 2018, 03:18:23 AM
Could we not post about gut feelings? Don't make predictions about something you can't back up with evidence.
lol...back up?... not backing up nothing... just saying a gut feeling... sorry, if i struck a nerve... just sit and enjoy the  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: wfrogge on October 04, 2018, 08:44:56 AM
Could we not post about gut feelings? Don't make predictions about something you can't back up with evidence.

Well to be fair folks here post all the time with things like ďwe are due for weather pattern XĒ when that is nothing more than a gut feeling. Itís almost akin to saying a casino slot machine should pay off eventually cause ďitís dueĒ
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 04, 2018, 09:05:01 AM
Well, I finally invested in some propane gas logs for the fireplace, so I'm ready for any icy power outages if they occur.  Retiring the ole kerosene heater for supplemental heat.  I'll keep it around for emergencies. 

And considering how winters have been for a long time, if we get one good snow (4+ inches), I consider the winter a success.  Same goes for 3 or more 1-2" inch snowfalls.  If you don't expect epic, you won't be disappointed with "ok". 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 04, 2018, 10:12:58 AM
Well, I finally invested in some propane gas logs for the fireplace, so I'm ready for any icy power outages if they occur.  Retiring the ole kerosene heater for supplemental heat.  I'll keep it around for emergencies. 

And considering how winters have been for a long time, if we get one good snow (4+ inches), I consider the winter a success.  Same goes for 3 or more 1-2" inch snowfalls.  If you don't expect epic, you won't be disappointed with "ok".

Iím perfectly fine with ok.  Gas logs are awesome without the smell of kerosene.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 04, 2018, 10:14:52 AM
lol...back up?... not backing up nothing... just saying a gut feeling... sorry, if i struck a nerve... just sit and enjoy the  ::blowtorch::

I have a gut feeling that Bruce is gonna blow a vessel if thereís no severe weather anytime soon


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Jilly on October 04, 2018, 12:31:41 PM
Could we not post about gut feelings? Don't make predictions about something you can't back up with evidence.
Yesterday I saw an entirely red wooly-worm, with no black on it at all.
 ::whistling::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 04, 2018, 01:16:52 PM
Yesterday I saw an entirely red wooly-worm, with no black on it at all.
 ::whistling::
It's lucky to have survived the huge crop of walnuts I've seen on the ground  ::pondering::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on October 04, 2018, 02:21:37 PM
Well, I finally invested in some propane gas logs for the fireplace, so I'm ready for any icy power outages if they occur.  Retiring the ole kerosene heater for supplemental heat.  I'll keep it around for emergencies. 

And considering how winters have been for a long time, if we get one good snow (4+ inches), I consider the winter a success.  Same goes for 3 or more 1-2" inch snowfalls.  If you don't expect epic, you won't be disappointed with "ok".

I dream of installing a natural gas whole house generator. Happy to have our gas fireplace in the mean time!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 04, 2018, 03:21:00 PM
Yesterday I saw an entirely red wooly-worm, with no black on it at all.
 ::whistling::

Beware of high spider webs and low hornets nests...

...unless the spiders and hornets are trying to avoid each other, maybe.  :P

(https://media.giphy.com/media/rwsFEH0CzPfCU/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 04, 2018, 04:46:58 PM
I have a gut feeling this won't stop
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on October 04, 2018, 05:07:06 PM
While weíre on the subject, I happened to catch this guy scurrying across the road today down in Franklin. I did not see any color bands/segments, just a solid rust/orange-ish color with maybe a hint of black down the middle. Have no idea what that means, if anything.[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 04, 2018, 05:42:22 PM
Iím perfectly fine with ok.  Gas logs are awesome without the smell of kerosene.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I live in an older log cabin built back in the mid 80's.  It's solid as a rock (built from huge hickory/oak logs) but could be better insulated, and needs some work (like me).  The additional gas logs will make it much cozier watching the snowfall this winter and help the heat pump during Arctic outbreaks.  Now my 3 dog nights will only be in reference to music, not using them to stay warm in bed.  But still keeping the dogs, of course.   :D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on October 05, 2018, 04:28:45 AM
It's just gross outside in the mornings.  I read somewhere that this heat ridge is in the upper 10th of the 99th percentile for October-- that's literally 1 in 1,000. 

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 05, 2018, 06:58:13 AM
Go Big Blue!

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 05, 2018, 08:29:09 AM
Go Big Blue!

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif)
::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 05, 2018, 11:10:51 AM
Taking this in stride and soaking up the last bit of summer before it gets cooler out. I will welcome autumn weather with open arms, but if this is what we are going to get for now, I may as well enjoy it. I plan to get a nice, sticky Southern sweat going today.  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 05, 2018, 11:16:08 AM
Pretty much sums it up!


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[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 05, 2018, 12:46:07 PM
I took the top back off the jeep and going for a long drive in the mountains this weekend.  Might as well enjoy topless weather while I can.   ;)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: collinsk on October 05, 2018, 08:30:51 PM
I looked back at Oct 1974 in Nashville and many many days in early October with highs in 60's and lows in 40's. I recall those kinds of Octobers around here when I was in grade school.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 06, 2018, 06:51:22 AM
Judah Cohen says Siberian snow cover is severely lacking so far this autumn (compared to previous years), and long range CFS shows little falling.  However, his theory of heavy snow cover in Siberia leading to a cold, snowy winters in the eastern U.S. has taken a hit the last few years.  There's been plenty of snow over there, but the influence here has been minimal.  Judah has this to say about that...

Quote
Yes the correlation with the AO has dropped but the correlation of the AO with winter temperatures has also dropped.  I do think that something strange is going on with the AO.


From the discussion, I take it that even when the AO goes severely negative in winter, the usual result of colder weather in the U.S. (or the mid-latitudes in general) doesn't occur.  Maybe we're just running out of cold air. 
 ::hot::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 06, 2018, 07:10:22 AM
Looking at the FV3 GFS , it looks like fall arrives Thursday and sticks around. Even has lows in the 30s by mid month.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 06, 2018, 07:42:27 AM
I'll welcome 30's with open arms.  Waking up to summer soup this morning.  Dense fog with temperatures and dewpoints locked together in the upper 60's. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 06, 2018, 08:26:42 AM
Yeah... itís bye bye ridge for now ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 06, 2018, 10:10:33 AM
In the mean time, the extended summer continues. Weíre with family at a pumpkin patch and farm for fall activities- it does not feel it. Just another typical July or August day.

It was funny to hear forecasts on the radio talk about the very warm near record weather when itís just seemed like a continuation of same ole.

Climatology has driven the daily averages way down, while the actual weather hasnít budged much.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 06, 2018, 10:16:50 AM
Oddly I think Iím taking to this better than I would if it had become cool and then we had a hot spell. Other than a brief day or two cool off, itís just been a continuation of what itís been and I havenít reaclimatized to anything different.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 06, 2018, 12:57:45 PM
Temp = 86F.  Dewpoint = 70F. 

O Fall, Where Art Thou?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on October 06, 2018, 01:20:25 PM
Not only am I sick of cutting the grass, I'm sick of being drenched in sweat and drained after I'm finished. IT WAS HOT & HUMID AF AT 7:30 LAST NIGHT. HURRY UP FALL.

Also, we now have a system in the Gulf that will likely become a TS before landfall. We'll get some of that plus the cold front coming through Weds-Thurs.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clint on October 06, 2018, 02:02:06 PM
Looks like we have 80's through the state today with KCHA reporting 90 degrees.

(https://i.imgur.com/eRxNtqP.png)

But not fret...we will start getting some Fall temps by the middle of next week.

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 06, 2018, 02:35:55 PM
Despite this ridiculous heat in October, I'm still feeling good about the upcoming winter.  The warm water off of Alaska (northeast Pacific) argues for a trough in the eastern U.S..  Every decent winter we've had since 2009 has had that warm pool of water in the northeast Pacific.  It's back.  So...BEWARE.   >:D ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on October 06, 2018, 04:49:21 PM
I was at the McMinnville Autumn Street Fair today and there was nothing autumn about today.  ::hot::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 07, 2018, 07:07:13 AM
Unless it changes, next weekend the long awaited change to fall-like weather will begin.  Some will probably have lows in the upper 40's by Saturday morning, with highs in the mid to upper 60's.  Gonna feel so good!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 07, 2018, 09:05:39 AM
Tropical depression forming in the Gulf.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 07, 2018, 09:36:56 AM
Tropical depression forming in the Gulf.

Looks to become a hurricane before making landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast.  Some models bring it right over TN, while others turn in it eastward into the Carolinas.  Official forecast takes it more eastward.  That could change as models decide how fast or slow our fall cold front moves through later in the week.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 07, 2018, 11:03:57 AM
The Carolinas really don't need another day or more of tropical rains just as they start to dry out from Florence.  Let's hope it swings west.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 07, 2018, 11:44:55 AM
GFS thinks the cooler weather will arrive on Thursday in sync with this tropical system.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 07, 2018, 12:23:49 PM
Speed of the front pushing the tropical system along should keep rain amounts from getting anywhere close to Florence.  Still, the Carolinas don't need any additional water from the sky right now.

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1538932767)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: lyngo on October 07, 2018, 02:34:27 PM
Looks to become a hurricane before making landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast.  Some models bring it right over TN, while others turn in it eastward into the Carolinas.  Official forecast takes it more eastward.  That could change as models decide how fast or slow our fall cold front moves through later in the week.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/35a1yc1.png)

Great...Iím in Port St. Joe this week which is in between Panama City and Apalachicola.  Depending on how strong this thing gets, it may be a short trip.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on October 07, 2018, 02:38:38 PM
Great...Iím in Port St. Joe this week which is in between Panama City and Apalachicola.  Depending on how strong this thing gets, it may be a short trip.

We were in PSJ this July. Enjoyed our vacation. Hope you get to enjoy it and the fishing should get good!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 07, 2018, 03:02:22 PM
Meanwhile in Wyoming:

Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
458 AM MDT Sun Oct 7 2018

...EARLY SEASON STORM TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

WYZ114-072200-
/O.CON.KCYS.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-181009T0600Z/
Snowy Range-
Including the cities of Centennial and Albany
458 AM MDT Sun Oct 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14
  inches, with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Snowy Mountain Range. Highest amounts above 9000 feet.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT Monday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect extremely dangerous or impossible
  travel conditions with slick, snow covered roads and very low
  visibilities.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clint on October 07, 2018, 06:08:43 PM
I love the color of blue ;D

(https://i.imgur.com/XUEqtGq.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: NashRugger on October 07, 2018, 07:28:20 PM
Michael could pull an Opal from 1995, but actually be strengthening up to landfall.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on October 07, 2018, 08:00:30 PM
Michael could pull an Opal from 1995, but actually be strengthening up to landfall.

Hopefully not. That was the only time in my childhood that I missed school due to weather other than snow.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on October 07, 2018, 09:16:24 PM
Michael is forecasted to strengthen rapidly and could very well end up being a weak Cat 3 at landfall. That is insane.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on October 08, 2018, 04:01:58 AM
The Carolinas really don't need another day or more of tropical rains just as they start to dry out from Florence.  Let's hope it swings west.
Yes, I know it's exciting but I'm more excited about having some lower fall dewpoints instead of tropical humid conditions!

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on October 08, 2018, 04:13:19 AM
That's crazy.  Very Opal-esque.  Same general track, too!.

Crazy thing was that Opal almost went Cat 5 very suddenly.  For one advisory just hours from landfall, she hit 150mph sustained, as I recall.

That's a dream storm kind of scenario if you want to get high wind penetration far inland.

Seems like a good time to post this extreme scenario....

Michael is forecasted to strengthen rapidly and could very well end up being a weak Cat 3 at landfall. That is insane.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181008/99dae97f8bcad2a32bb49849802b5eea.jpg)

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 08, 2018, 06:13:54 AM
Michael is looking far more organized this morning--and is growing in size, as well.  One has to wonder how strong it can get over the tepid waters of the Gulf.  It won't have a lot of time over water, being pulled rapidly north by the deepening trough that will bring fall to the eastern U.S.  But it may not need much time since it seems to be stronger now than earlier forecast. 

And, unfortunately, the Carolinas look to get hammered again by tropical rains. 





Post Merge: October 08, 2018, 06:20:28 AM
And don't look now, but this morning's GFS has a strong mid latitude storm bringing even colder air by mid month.  If it's to be believed, much of TN may see it's first frost/freeze of the autumn season.  Talk about a pattern flip. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Beth on October 08, 2018, 09:55:58 AM
We finally got pool winterized Saturday after roasting at the zoo on Friday.  This week will be spent cutting back plants that have to go in green house before frost. Not excited by winter coming but I will enjoy some cooler days thatís for sure.  :)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 08, 2018, 07:40:31 PM
We finally got pool winterized Saturday after roasting at the zoo on Friday.  This week will be spent cutting back plants that have to go in green house before frost. Not excited by winter coming but I will enjoy some cooler days thatís for sure.  :)


Here's hoping we see about 2 months worth of 60's, then the bottom can drop out and the snow can fly just in time for Christmas.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 08, 2018, 09:20:39 PM

Here's hoping we see about 2 months worth of 60's, then the bottom can drop out and the snow can fly just in time for Christmas.
odds of snow flying around here in west tn xmas time... are slim... least in my lifetime i can remember
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 08, 2018, 10:46:50 PM
Only one white Christmas in Middle TN since I've been alive. That was in 2010.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: harlequin on October 09, 2018, 12:47:16 AM
Only one white Christmas in Middle TN since I've been alive. That was in 2010.

2004 was a White Christmas in at least parts of Middle TN.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lzk/Randolph_Lawrence_Transfer.pdf (https://www.weather.gov/media/lzk/Randolph_Lawrence_Transfer.pdf)

Randolph and Lawrence counties in AR were transferred to NWS Little Rock. It makes sense geographically as well.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 09, 2018, 10:17:30 AM
I've noticed it's breezy today with some gusts- I wonder if we're seeing some distant gradient interaction between the approaching trough/autumn cold front, ridge to the east, and Michael in the Gulf.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 09, 2018, 01:04:23 PM
I've noticed it's breezy today with some gusts- I wonder if we're seeing some distant gradient interaction between the approaching trough/autumn cold front, ridge to the east, and Michael in the Gulf.

First real breezy day here in a long time.  As Chuck Mangione put it--it feels so good.

EDIT--Just like this will!

Quote
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 66.

Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 69.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2018, 06:39:22 PM
Went out for a short jog and was drenched with sweat by the time I was done.  A deep tropical airmass is definitely being pushed in here ahead of Michael.  Dewpoint is currently 72 with the temperature at 76. 

But this may be the last night the air has a tropical feel to it until next spring.  Either way, I won't know what to do come Thursday evening when temps crash into the 50's after sunset, and drop to 45 by morning.  And dewpoints in the 40s??  We haven't had an airmass that dry since last May. 

Considering we've not had any transition time, this cool snap will be a shock to the system.  Highs in the mid 60's gonna feel a bit chilly.  I'll still take it. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on October 11, 2018, 04:14:34 AM
Went out for a short jog and was drenched with sweat by the time I was done.  A deep tropical airmass is definitely being pushed in here ahead of Michael.  Dewpoint is currently 72 with the temperature at 76. 

But this may be the last night the air has a tropical feel to it until next spring.  Either way, I won't know what to do come Thursday evening when temps crash into the 50's after sunset, and drop to 45 by morning.  And dewpoints in the 40s??  We haven't had an airmass that dry since last May. 

Considering we've not had any transition time, this cool snap will be a shock to the system.  Highs in the mid 60's gonna feel a bit chilly.  I'll still take it.
It's 55F here in west TN this morning! Fall has arrived! I'm about to go run!

It arrived too late for the Florida panhandle, unfortunately.

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2018, 04:56:19 AM
Forecast for the next 7 days continues to cool as models catch on to the strength of the trough developing over the eastern U.S.  Temperatures are now forecast to remain below 70 for the entire period for this area!  Lows the next two nights are expected to be in the LOWER 40's.  What a massive change from what we've been seeing so far this autumn. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 11, 2018, 09:42:35 AM
Sergio looks to interact with arctic air in the southern plains for a really decent snow storm. Amarillo TX weather has always fascinated me but not to the point to live there. Sergio should get stalled along a front in western TN early next week and put down 2 to 3 inches of rain with some cool air to boot.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 11, 2018, 10:52:11 AM
Sergio looks to interact with arctic air in the southern plains for a really decent snow storm. Amarillo TX weather has always fascinated me but not to the point to live there. Sergio should get stalled along a front in western TN early next week and put down 2 to 3 inches of rain with some cool air to boot.

That's really interesting (how a tropical system can come into place in a winter weather scenario). That was the case with Sandy.

The high plains can get some good snow storms/blizzards in October anyway. I agree- fascinating area of the country.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clay on October 11, 2018, 12:56:51 PM
Sergio looks to interact with arctic air in the southern plains for a really decent snow storm. Amarillo TX weather has always fascinated me but not to the point to live there. Sergio should get stalled along a front in western TN early next week and put down 2 to 3 inches of rain with some cool air to boot.
Similarly so, I've always felt the same about Denver. 80F one day, snow the next. 3000+ mean sunshine hours per month, 50" of annual snowfall. Some severe wx, but no humidity. Must be nice not being down wind from a massive tub of bath water.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 11, 2018, 04:36:05 PM
What is this strange figure that is in the forecast tonight... low of ď42Ē- what is that? What will that feel like?

Might we die if we are out in that?

;)


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2018, 05:58:16 PM
The sun is still above the horizon and it's already down to 63 with a good breeze blowing.  Finally feels like October!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: ChrisPC on October 11, 2018, 06:06:17 PM
42? Itís the answer to life, the universe, and everything.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 12, 2018, 06:52:17 AM
A wonderful 45 degrees this morning.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 12, 2018, 07:08:52 AM
Didn't make it to 42, but I'm happy with a marvelous 49 this morning. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 12, 2018, 07:25:49 AM
At the desk to start my work day with a big mug of hot English Breakfast tea and my dog curled up on her bed beside me to sleep until we get out in the glorious weather to take a long walk.  This is what October mornings should be.  ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 12, 2018, 08:14:22 AM
I have a feeling we may see a fairly abrupt change of foliage in the next week or two with this cool weather + the shorter hours of daylight at this point. With the rainfall seen over the last month, the trees seem fairly lush and green, so I'm hoping we'll see some nice color this year.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clay on October 12, 2018, 09:50:00 AM
41F IMBY. Fall is here to stay. Or at least I hope, my <90F prediction went down a week later.  >:D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 12, 2018, 11:39:43 AM
I have a feeling we may see a fairly abrupt change of foliage in the next week or two with this cool weather + the shorter hours of daylight at this point. With the rainfall seen over the last month, the trees seem fairly lush and green, so I'm hoping we'll see some nice color this year.

Agree. I expect a vibrant turnout in East Tenn. For those looking for a weekend getaway, the Smokies will be gorgeous around Halloween.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 12, 2018, 12:31:09 PM
Sugar maples near my house are already showing a slight orange tint.  With the cool nights deep into the 40's, they'll be putting on a good show in a few weeks. This will be the first autumn in several years without dryness, so I would think the color would be better this year compared to previous, especially 2016.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on October 13, 2018, 12:33:43 AM
Sugar maples near my house are already showing a slight orange tint.  With the cool nights deep into the 40's, they'll be putting on a good show in a few weeks. This will be the first autumn in several years without dryness, so I would think the color would be better this year compared to previous, especially 2016.

I dunno. My maples have lost approximately 30%-50% of their leaves already...way ahead of schedule. No color; they just turned brown and dropped. I've already had to mulch leaves...something I have NEVER done this early. I've seen several huge, mature white oaks that are almost devoid of leaves entirely. Same thing; they just turned brown and dropped. I'm not sure if it's the heat or what that did it, but it'll be interesting to see how this transitions into the colors (or lack thereof) in the next couple 1-2 weeks.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JHart on October 13, 2018, 07:40:41 AM
Late season heat and humidity have a negative effect on fall color, at least in my experience.  I planted a grove of aspen trees about fifteen years ago in order to enjoy their brilliant yellow fall color.  However, while the trees have thrived, never once have they produced any color.  In late September their leaves simply mildew, wither, and blow away.  This environment is not necessarily that much hotter than their native climate, but it is much more humid.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 13, 2018, 08:40:23 AM
It's a strange scene in Knoxville this morning.  Beautiful cool temperatures, nice chilly breeze, some bright blue sky, but also some low, very dark clouds that just seem out of place.  Later in the year it would look like snow.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 13, 2018, 09:17:05 AM
[attachimg=1]

I got a picture of it

Post Merge: October 13, 2018, 10:22:48 AM
Similarly so, I've always felt the same about Denver. 80F one day, snow the next. 3000+ mean sunshine hours per month, 50" of annual snowfall. Some severe wx, but no humidity. Must be nice not being down wind from a massive tub of bath water.

Denver is a microcosm of the sheer power of American weather. If the Plains' unpredictable weather astonishes Tennesseans, I'll leave it to you to fathom how Germans perceive it. Typically, the climate on the Northern European Plain embodies a steady slope of temperatures; cool rains in the winter, with maybe some snow, which transcends into mild, overcast spring weather, and finally to a generally warm yet cloudy summer. Severe weather in the wintertime is almost impossible in Germany, but it's a realistic threat in Tennessee.

Northern Europe is subject to one, maybe two powerful Arctic blasts per winter from Eastern Europe, which is controlled by snowpack in Russia and the Slavic countries. Despite its position 15 degrees latitude north of Nashville, Hamburg's minimum annual temperature is normally not as cold as Nashville's minimum. Climate instability is a function of continentality. North America is a powder keg for crazy weather. In Europe, this is not the case anywhere. Certain regions are known for hosting a higher concentration of a specific type of severe event (e.g. drought in Italy, extreme heat in Southern France, flooding in the Rhine, tornadoes in Germany and Poland, blizzards in Russia). Nowhere in Europe will you find an equivalent to Oklahoma or Kansas. Again- continentality and latitude. You have no better place to witness every type of severe weather than the American Plains.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 13, 2018, 12:23:36 PM
It's a strange scene in Knoxville this morning.  Beautiful cool temperatures, nice chilly breeze, some bright blue sky, but also some low, very dark clouds that just seem out of place.  Later in the year it would look like snow.

Forecast for today is mostly sunny.  I saw a little sun this morning, but it has been a dark, cloudy day otherwise.  Don't mind it, though.  Good weather for building a fire in the firepit. 

Post Merge: October 13, 2018, 12:41:45 PM
I dunno. My maples have lost approximately 30%-50% of their leaves already...way ahead of schedule. No color; they just turned brown and dropped. I've already had to mulch leaves...something I have NEVER done this early. I've seen several huge, mature white oaks that are almost devoid of leaves entirely. Same thing; they just turned brown and dropped. I'm not sure if it's the heat or what that did it, but it'll be interesting to see how this transitions into the colors (or lack thereof) in the next couple 1-2 weeks.

Wow, that is strange.  My hickory trees are nearly leafless, but that's not abnormal for that species.  They leaf out very early, and are first to lose their leaves in fall.  But the white oaks here are still green, along with the sugar maples for the most part.  Red oaks are mostly green, too, with some brown patches appearing.  There are some sugar maples with numerous leaf spots--usually caused by fungal problems in wet summers. 

You've probably had a lot more rain than my area this summer, which is usually the case.  I wonder if you've just had too much, causing problems with fungal diseases? 

Quote
Leaf Spots
Leaf spots are the most common disease on tree foliage. Fungi or bacteria that cause leaf spots are spread by air or water and need moisture to grow. Leaf spots normally occur in late summer to early fall and do not cause much damage. Leaf spots that begin in early spring may cause premature dropping of foliage. Severely infected leaves may turn entirely yellow or brown and drop off prematurely.

Post Merge: October 13, 2018, 12:46:16 PM
Looks like clouds are clearing out from a strange direction...from east to west.  And almost like magic, I've gone from dark, cloudy weather to lots of blue sky showing. 

(http://i67.tinypic.com/xgfyg3.png)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 13, 2018, 04:16:18 PM
Been in Maine for a week hiking Acadia. You want fall color? Been accustomed to it now(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181013/93ebc5d779ce1dac594073067c3a76ec.jpg)
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 13, 2018, 10:43:06 PM
Meanwhile in Wyoming tonight, I80 is closed between Cheyenne and Rawlins.


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[attachment deleted by admin]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 14, 2018, 10:14:20 AM
Meanwhile in Wyoming tonight, I80 is closed between Cheyenne and Rawlins.


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Hopefully, that will be Tennessee come January when we have our epic snowstorm to end all snowstorms that closes I-40 from Memphis to Harford.   ;D


I'll have propane heat by then, so bring it!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on October 14, 2018, 10:55:42 AM
Definitely had to do a double-take just now...

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 14, 2018, 02:10:52 PM
Current pattern flip to cooler certainly has legs.  6-10 & 8-14 day outlooks are below normal for our area.   Monday looks to be the warmest of the next 7 days.  Much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley could experience their first frost Wednesday night, and a freeze looks very possible early next week. If it occurs, that would actually be early for our area, and within just 2 weeks of record heat earlier this month. 

Post Merge: October 14, 2018, 05:08:18 PM
Fall's golden colors appearing up north in Michigan.

http://www.snowmancam.com/ (http://www.snowmancam.com/)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 15, 2018, 12:25:44 PM
This is one of those if it was only January deals today. Has been pouring rain and temps falling quick.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 12:30:05 PM
This is one of those if it was only January deals today. Has been pouring rain and temps falling quick.
yeah. Al we need now is a nice trowel tonset up just west of the ms river... lol
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 15, 2018, 01:24:22 PM

[attachimg=1]

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 04:53:59 PM
MRX AFD:

Quote
Friday a surface low deepens
over Quebec with increasing moisture. Rain chances will gradually
increase during the day. Cold front moves into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. The rain will taper off during the afternoon
with colder air moving in overnight. Temperatures dont look to be
cold enough for snow in the higher elevations until after moisture
moves out. Early Monday widespread frost looks likely across
higher elevations and northeast lower elevations. Sunday and
Monday behind cold front highs only in the 50s to near 60 but much
colder higher elevations.

Many areas will see their first sub-freezing temperatures early next week.  High elevations will be downright cold.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 15, 2018, 05:08:35 PM
48 and rain is down right cold when it was 90 just a few days ago.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 05:30:19 PM
48 and rain is down right cold when it was 90 just a few days ago.  ::cold::

Didn't realize the big contrast in temps across the state today.  It was near 80 over here with a good dose of humidity to go along with it. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clay on October 15, 2018, 06:26:08 PM
(Attachment Link)
Highs in the 40s for San Antonio/Austin tomorrow. They're pushing 40F below normal in some areas of Central TX.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 07:20:57 PM
Cooler air pushing its way back into eastern TN with heavy rain and some thunder this evening.  Already up to .64" of rain and it's still pouring. 

Post Merge: October 16, 2018, 06:54:18 AM
Parts of Michigan will probably see their first lake effect snow showers Wednesday and again late weekend.  Nothing heavy--a few inches of snow, but it's a sign that our pattern has changed and autumn is definitely taking over. 

On a different note, I had .80" of rain in just about an hour last night, along with several booms of thunder.  A stormy ending to a summer-like day.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on October 16, 2018, 02:14:51 PM
It felt a lot colder than it was today.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 16, 2018, 03:28:13 PM
Looks like todayís high will be 50 after a low of 41. Gloomy and sprinkling.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 16, 2018, 04:40:22 PM
Looks like todayís high will be 50 after a low of 41. Gloomy and sprinkling.

Is that about 20 degrees below average high temperature for Dyersburg?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 16, 2018, 04:43:44 PM
Is that about 20 degrees below average high temperature for Dyersburg?

Hereís the euro 2 temp anomalies this afternoon (sorry upper east TN- couldnít fit you on it). We havenít made it out the upper 40ís today with light rain.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181016/c523750528214278ee5a07dd20027c9a.png)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 17, 2018, 06:45:05 AM
Last nites 0z gfs. Has the seasons first snow flake for most of the state  by end month ... followed by a good hard freeze   ::cold::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 17, 2018, 07:19:19 AM
Crisp 39 degrees this morning. Going to be a beautiful day.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 17, 2018, 10:45:04 AM
Frost advisory across much of KY for tonight.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2018, 08:28:02 AM
Last nites 0z gfs. Has the seasons first snow flake for most of the state  by end month ... followed by a good hard freeze   ::cold::

Euro also shows a pretty deep trough digging into the eastern U.S.   Could be something scary brewing for Halloween.   ::wow::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 18, 2018, 08:36:46 AM
Euro also shows a pretty deep trough digging into the eastern U.S.   Could be something scary brewing for Halloween.   ::wow::
wow  first time i looked at it... agree
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 18, 2018, 08:46:10 AM
Euro also shows a pretty deep trough digging into the eastern U.S.   Could be something scary brewing for Halloween.   ::wow::
Let the model watching commence!  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2018, 09:08:00 AM
Let the model watching commence!  ::coffee::

 :D  I think after the previous two lackluster winters, most here are pumped for some winter mischief.   >:D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2018, 02:10:01 PM
2017-18 was a pretty good winter for West Tennessee, but lackluster for everybody else. Middle and East TN are overdue.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: NashRugger on October 18, 2018, 03:28:32 PM
Yeah, as of now, all the models that are public, and some private ones I use for the Navy, are showing a big system, but trouble with timing anywhere from on the eastern seaboard on the 1st to the Plains on the 3rd of November.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 18, 2018, 06:57:27 PM
2017-18 was a pretty good winter for West Tennessee, but lackluster for everybody else. Middle and East TN are overdue.
Actually northwest middle cashed in good with 1 blockbuster week. Here in Montgomery County we got 2 snowfalls in that week that left about 11 inches. Our first snowfall did melt slightly before the 2nd snowfall hit but we had solid snowpack all week which reminded me of winter days gone by. First snowfall we got around 4.5 and the second we got about 6.5. The only problem is that was our only week of winter. But I will take 2 good to very good snows in a week over 3 or 4 smaller snows spread out that would have reached the same amount. Heres hoping the rest of middle and east tn fare better this year along with the rest of the state. Sure has been along time since we have had a good old fashioned southern slider. The one in 85 laid down a lot of snow for the entire state, we got 8 from that one here.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2018, 08:05:51 PM
New weather catch phrase being thrown around by the media these days.  Remember polar vortex?  Then it was "bomb cyclone."  Now it's "the blob."  ::rofl::

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/persistent-alaska-warmth-this-fall-has-brought-back-Ďthe-blobí-if-it-lasts-it-could-mean-a-wild-winter-in-the-lower-48/ar-BBOzm4C?ocid=spartanntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/persistent-alaska-warmth-this-fall-has-brought-back-Ďthe-blobí-if-it-lasts-it-could-mean-a-wild-winter-in-the-lower-48/ar-BBOzm4C?ocid=spartanntp)

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2018, 09:17:53 PM
It's less provocative, so that's an improvement.

"Blob" is much less intimidating than "bomb cyclone" or "polar vortex."
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 18, 2018, 10:25:06 PM
Iím ready for this!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 19, 2018, 02:34:09 AM
Models are converging upon accumulating snowfall in the higher elevations of West Virginia this weekend. Temperatures will be +/- 2 degrees Fahrenheit around freezing, so I would guess a 7:1 ratio of snow depth to rainfall is reasonable.

I think this is on schedule for the first West Virginia snowfall; it may be a little early. Snowshoe Mtn. recorded its first snowfall of the season last Saturday.

Also, you can see a bubble of below freezing temperatures in the 12km resolution NAM run for Knox County. I don't think we'll reach freezing this weekend, but we may get very close.

[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]



[attachment deleted by admin]

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 19, 2018, 07:18:09 AM
Models are converging upon accumulating snowfall in the higher elevations of West Virginia this weekend. Temperatures will be +/- 2 degrees Fahrenheit around freezing, so I would guess a 7:1 ratio of snow depth to rainfall is reasonable.

I think this is on schedule for the first West Virginia snowfall; it may be a little early. Snowshoe Mtn. recorded its first snowfall of the season last Saturday.

West Virginia--almost heaven. . .

Country roads, take me home
To the place I belong. . .


Hope to live in a place that sees that much snow someday, but yet not in the frozen north. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: joemomma on October 19, 2018, 11:58:49 AM
Hoping for a good winter, this will be my first in a 4x4.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on October 19, 2018, 06:22:49 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowshoe%2C_West_Virginia

Snowshoe is probably one of the most interesting climates in the Upland South region.  Its topography and how it maximizes lift makes it the snowiest place in the Upland South and more snowier than a vast majority of the Eastern USA.

With the El-Nino this year I wouldn't be surprised to see Snowshoe beat out many of the Western USA ski resorts this winter. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 20, 2018, 06:14:13 AM
Growing season coming to an end this weekend for the Smoky Mts and all of western NC. Freeze warnings in place.  A good frost likely even in valley areas with lows barely above freezing.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 20, 2018, 06:58:54 AM
Growing season coming to an end this weekend for the Smoky Mts and all of western NC. Freeze warnings in place.  A good frost likely even in valley areas with lows barely above freezing.
yeah, guess i better bring my special plant inside this weekend... o well, bout time for harvest anyways... ;)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on October 20, 2018, 07:38:10 AM
yeah, guess i better bring my special plant inside this weekend... o well, bout time for harvest anyways... ;)

Need help!? 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 20, 2018, 10:58:15 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowshoe%2C_West_Virginia

Snowshoe is probably one of the most interesting climates in the Upland South region.  Its topography and how it maximizes lift makes it the snowiest place in the Upland South and more snowier than a vast majority of the Eastern USA.

With the El-Nino this year I wouldn't be surprised to see Snowshoe beat out many of the Western USA ski resorts this winter.


It's a good place for snow lovers who don't necessarily enjoy bitter cold for long periods like the Great Lakes, New England or upper mid-west experience. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 20, 2018, 11:03:41 AM
Bruce

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 21, 2018, 10:03:09 AM
Freeze warning tonight- ironic that summer-like weather persisted so late with a hot September into first part of October. And, here we are getting a freeze earlier than a lot of years.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: wfrogge on October 21, 2018, 04:54:33 PM
Need to keep a close eye on major hurricane Willia and see how this might impact our weather next week.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 22, 2018, 06:54:05 AM
First frost here (couldnít see any yesterday, but itís certainly frosty this morning).


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 22, 2018, 06:56:19 AM
Here too.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 22, 2018, 07:42:29 AM
Good frost at my house this morning that should be a big step towards putting everything's growing season to an end.  I put a lot of time into what should be the final trimming and clean-up of the yard and bushes this weekend, as well as some pressure washing to get the outside of the house in good shape before the cooling weather shuts that kind of thing down.  Next weekend I'm hoping to get gutter guards up in advance of the leaves coming down.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 22, 2018, 08:38:16 AM
East Tennessee's waterways certainly make for interesting morning weather this time of year.  You can go from 0 visibility in dense fog to sunny blue skies in a matter of seconds or vice versa.  Not the best for driving, however.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 22, 2018, 12:06:08 PM
If todayís 12z gfs knows something. Things r going ramp up down the road ... been hinting that last several runs now ....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on October 22, 2018, 12:36:07 PM
Bottomed out at 31 with very heavy frost. 28 out at work in Polk Co.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: CT_Yankee on October 22, 2018, 03:09:54 PM
30.2į IMBY this morning.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on October 22, 2018, 05:01:45 PM
If todayís 12z gfs knows something. Things r going ramp up down the road ... been hinting that last several runs now ....

Elaborate...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on October 22, 2018, 05:23:11 PM
Elaborate...

tornadoes ... death and destruction .... maybe a big time threat for ice ... could change but it got that look to ... be interesting  ::drowning::

Post Merge: October 22, 2018, 05:23:28 PM
Sorry Bruce.  >:D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 22, 2018, 06:00:55 PM
tornadoes ... death and destruction .... maybe a big time threat for ice ... could change but it got that look to ... be interesting  ::drowning::

Post Merge: October 22, 2018, 05:23:28 PM
Sorry Bruce.  >:D

You fooled me. There is no difference between what you typed and Bruce's average post.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 23, 2018, 07:57:40 AM
Weekend weather forecast continues to cool.  Now looks like highs will only manage mid 50's with showers around.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 23, 2018, 08:06:51 AM
Weekend weather forecast continues to cool.  Now looks like highs will only manage mid 50's with showers around.
Sitting here with a chilly, foggy morning and looking ahead to a cool, cloudy weekend has me wondering if one evening this weekend will see the first fire of the season.  We're definitely getting close to that time and I'm ready to enjoy the sounds and smells of a hot wood stove.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on October 23, 2018, 04:21:18 PM
My wallet is certainly enjoying this weather!

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 24, 2018, 09:05:22 AM
Looks like another soaker system moving in Friday, and a cool, damp weekend ahead.  This October has strayed from the previous two and delivered far more moisture than normal. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Coach B on October 24, 2018, 11:02:00 AM
My wallet is certainly enjoying this weather!

Nice! Seems like I went straight from AC to having to run the heat for at least a little while. Have already run the woodstove three or four mornings. Hoping for some more open windows weather.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 24, 2018, 12:20:11 PM
Nice! Seems like I went straight from AC to having to run the heat for at least a little while. Have already run the woodstove three or four mornings. Hoping for some more open windows weather.
i havenít used any heat yet.... loving saving utility part
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on October 24, 2018, 05:49:10 PM
It should be noted that we will likely finish October average to even slightly above average just because of how strong the + departure from average was on the first 10 days of the month.  Currently, Nashville is at +3.8F and Paducah +2.8 on the month.  We will have below average temps for the remainder but it probably only knock us down to about 0 to +1 for the departure.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 24, 2018, 08:06:27 PM
I take todayís 12z euro 240  hr. For 100 Alex. Lol

Post Merge: October 25, 2018, 07:43:39 AM
Weekend not looking bad as first thought now... less rain warmer than first modeled ... May mulch up few leaves thatís turning loose around the house...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 25, 2018, 02:12:50 PM
What the Knoxville radar is detecting is just virga. No rain until later tonight.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: bugalou on October 25, 2018, 04:43:48 PM
It is a shame its not a little deeper into winter.  The system that is moving through today would have been a nice snow event for our neck of the woods if it were Jan-Feb.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on October 25, 2018, 05:32:01 PM
Just enjoyed those few moments of pure uncertainty as I tested the heating system before I found myself actually in needing of it. Happy to say it passed the smell test. Now to get someone to inspect the chimney. Anyone here around Nashville/Bellevue with a recommendation for a fair priced annual inspection?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: EastTNWX on October 26, 2018, 05:28:00 AM
Can't help you, but I'm looking for the same thing in Knox.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 26, 2018, 06:19:01 AM
We've always had great luck working with Hiller in Knoxville and they're in Nashville as well.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 26, 2018, 07:04:18 AM
Fall finally showing it's colors around the area with the recent cool weather.  Red maples in the yard have turned a deep burgundy, red oaks are turning red, and tulip trees are showing some yellow (but not that many yet).  Some sugar maples are also showing off their trademark orange.  I'd say peak colors will be over the next 1-2 weeks. 

Post Merge: October 26, 2018, 10:38:31 AM
Good time to sell umbrellas around these parts.


(http://i67.tinypic.com/14wdkio.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Beth on October 26, 2018, 12:41:48 PM
My maples were light green on Monday. Each day they have been turning orange.  So pretty today! Busy weekend of taking granddaughter to all the Halloween activities around town. Hope eveyone has a great weekend. 😊
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 26, 2018, 02:38:38 PM
models starting to converge on a severe threat around halloween... with the euro being the more agressor... stout jet stream modeled off th euro... gfs been showing this but taking it back out... todays euro pretty potent setup.. especially for the southern half midsouth... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 26, 2018, 03:17:34 PM
models starting to converge on a severe threat around halloween... with the euro being the more agressor... stout jet stream modeled off th euro... gfs been showing this but taking it back out... todays euro pretty potent setup.. especially for the southern half midsouth... ::coffee::

Cape almost non existent and LP in Canada...on the euro? Thatís not a severe look
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 26, 2018, 03:46:29 PM
Cape almost non existent and LP in Canada...on the euro? Thatís not a severe look
height falls r great with this setup ...  cool season classic setup with warm air out front
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 26, 2018, 06:20:10 PM
height falls r great with this setup ...  cool season classic setup with warm air out front

It's too chilly on this end of the state to sustain any severe wx. Not enough warm air will be in place here. West TN may stand a chance.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 27, 2018, 06:33:55 AM
Hope everyone enjoys the last weekend of Daylight Savings.  The Dark Ages return next weekend.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on October 27, 2018, 08:12:59 AM
The SPC thinks of any severe threat around Halloween as being an overall Nothingburger.  Not enough instability and the wind flow is not favorable.  Not every strong front plowing into a warm airmass will give you severe weather. 

Quote
As heights begin to
   lower across the central US, large-scale ascent should foster at
   least weak cyclogenesis along a cold front stretching from the
   southern Plains to the Midwest. Although some discrepancies exist
   between various medium-range guidance regarding the
   timing/orientation of the larger-scale trough and any embedded
   impulses, deterministic/ensemble solutions appear to be converging
   on a weaker surface cyclone associated with veered surface flow
   ahead of the cold front. As such, although this front will encounter
   progressively deeper moisture and at least weak/modest buoyancy from
   Texas to parts of the Southeast D5/Wed-D6/Thu, any strong convection
   may be confined to areas near the front. Furthermore,
   uni-directional flow suggests storms may quickly become elevated
   atop the frontal surface. Therefore, while strengthening deep-layer
   flow may offer some severe potential around mid-week, the threat
   appears too marginal to introduce extended probabilities, especially
   considering temporal uncertainty.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 27, 2018, 08:44:40 AM
Hope everyone enjoys the last weekend of Daylight Savings.  The Dark Ages return next weekend.
think god. It doesnít last long ...

Post Merge: October 27, 2018, 08:47:43 AM
The SPC thinks of any severe threat around Halloween as being an overall Nothingburger.  Not enough instability and the wind flow is not favorable.  Not every strong front plowing into a warm airmass will give you severe weather.
while spc says that ... mainly cause model dis agreement... meg starting to add strong storms for now... still a system that needs watching
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 27, 2018, 09:39:45 AM
There are two different types of perfect fall days.  One is when temps soar into the 60's with crystal clear cobalt blue skies and a light breeze, and is perfect for short sleeves and a sweet tea.  The other is when temps linger in the 50's under cloudy skies and a stiff breeze cuts through you, but it's mostly dry.  Those days are perfect for hoodies, a glowing firepit, and a cup of steaming hot chocolate. Today is the latter. Tomorrow looks like the other kind.  So, I'd have to say this will be a perfect fall weekend. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on October 27, 2018, 12:12:55 PM
Got a little cold and wet during my run today. Felt like fall!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 27, 2018, 02:49:20 PM
Despite the lack of sun, I've enjoyed the cloudy, blustery day.  It's been dry, but with very chilly temps that actually dropped from the middle 50's earlier today to the upper 40's by late afternoon.  I can deal with this better than the upper 80's we had at the beginning of October. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 27, 2018, 04:05:03 PM
Despite the lack of sun, I've enjoyed the cloudy, blustery day.  It's been dry, but with very chilly temps that actually dropped from the middle 50's earlier today to the upper 40's by late afternoon.  I can deal with this better than the upper 80's we had at the beginning of October.

And here itís 73 in York Nebraska lol


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 28, 2018, 07:04:53 AM
Looks like a windy, mild Sunday coming up.  A wind advisory has been issued for most of the upper east TN valley for today.  Right now it's clear and chilly, but calm.  Guess I'd better get all the garbage cans secured.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 28, 2018, 08:08:41 AM
Looks like a windy, mild Sunday coming up.  A wind advisory has been issued for most of the upper east TN valley for today.  Right now it's clear and chilly, but calm.  Guess I'd better get all the garbage cans secured.
this is the perfect fall day to me... here in west tn... 75 to 80 degrees... blue fall sky... with the leaves falling down through the air.... :)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 28, 2018, 12:59:50 PM
Breezy day here.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 28, 2018, 01:19:21 PM
Beautiful sunny day up until now, but clouds moving in.  Blue sky becoming scarce. 

Big spread in temperatures today from upper 70's southwest to lower/mid 60's east. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 28, 2018, 03:54:39 PM
Think our nothing Burger starting to heat up mid week. Potent trough. Models are slowing timing down on projectory of the neg. titled trough ... very potent llj will aid in instability ... low level shear is quite high ... meg is adding severe to the forecast ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on October 28, 2018, 05:57:30 PM
Went for a drive on the Cherohala Skyway today. Sunny and 70 at the bottom, foggy and 40 at the top. Also very windy.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on October 28, 2018, 08:36:34 PM
Something that doesnít get mentioned a lot is ďWind RunĒ
Itís the mileage that a days average wind would have traveled at that average wind speed. How far would a feather travel.  Thereís a station a few blocks from me at Nashvilleweather  com. This data shows todayís info for wind and the year. Wind run is a neat metric.



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: bugalou on October 29, 2018, 10:50:46 AM
Someone at MEG had a little to much fun with the AFD this morning:

Quote
Lots of uncertainty still exists in the midweek forecast. Timing
issues remain the biggest question. There are also slightly less
significant discrepancies on the track of the surface low...but in
general it is expected to track from Southeast Arkansas, across
Northwest Mississippi into Middle Tennessee. What looks more
certain is that it will be wet. Rain/water themed Halloween
costumes might be a good idea. Maybe Aqua-man or Michael Phelps? A
duck or a Mermaid? If you want to get scary, a shark might work.
How about a shark attack victim? Get creative folks. But be
prepared to get wet.
Temperatures will be mild, generally in the
middle 60s. Midweek rainfall totals will likely range from two to
4 inches across the Midsouth.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on October 29, 2018, 12:51:46 PM
Long range looks quite warm and damp on the GFS. Coldest temp in the day 8-15 range is nearly 50, highs in the mid 70's.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on October 29, 2018, 01:01:07 PM
Wednesday night into Thursday looks dreadful...[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Volduff64 on October 30, 2018, 11:13:05 AM
I think trick or treaters east of the Tennessee River will be able to get there halloween in just before the rain Wednesday.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 30, 2018, 12:02:49 PM
I think trick or treaters east of the Tennessee River will be able to get there halloween in just before the rain Wednesday.
check with you local community. Lot towns are changing tonite as the tonite due to weather ... I know waverly is.  My sis n law just told me ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: bugalou on October 30, 2018, 12:17:17 PM
check with you local community. Lot towns are changing tonite as the tonite due to weather ... I know waverly is.  My sis n law just told me ...

Pssh.  Bunch of babies.  :P   I remember freezing my butt off dressed as Spiderman trick or treating in the 90s.  I forget the year,  but an arctic front came through and dropped temps to the upper 20s with flurries.  I still got my bag of candy.  ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 30, 2018, 12:23:03 PM
Pssh.  Bunch of babies.  :P   I remember freezing my butt off dressed as Spiderman trick or treating in the 90s.  I forget the year,  but an arctic front came through and dropped temps to the upper 20s with flurries.  I still got my bag of candy.  ;D
1993.....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 30, 2018, 05:52:36 PM
1993.....
4 inches of snow here.

A Flood Watch has been issued here. Looks like at least 3 to 5 inches is forecast.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 30, 2018, 05:56:21 PM
4 inches of snow here.

A Flood Watch has been issued here. Looks like at least 3 to 5 inches is forecast.

Well at least there should be plenty of duck water for ya.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: wfrogge on October 30, 2018, 07:24:43 PM
Next Tuesday needs to be monitored for severe weather somewhere in the south. Looks potent
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 30, 2018, 08:07:19 PM
Next Tuesday needs to be monitored for severe weather somewhere in the south. Looks potent
thank you for breaking the ice on this threat... cause i wanted to mention it today... but i figured i get booed  at... lol yeah ... yeah looks to cover a pretty large area also... with mid south included... SPC already hinting on a severe event at day 6 and day 7... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on October 30, 2018, 10:53:18 PM
Pssh.  Bunch of babies.  :P   I remember freezing my butt off dressed as Spiderman trick or treating in the 90s.  I forget the year,  but an arctic front came through and dropped temps to the upper 20s with flurries.  I still got my bag of candy.  ;D

I actually remember that. I was in High School, sitting in class watching it snow. Pretty shocking it was snowing that early.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Icestorm on October 31, 2018, 05:42:04 AM
I remember it too it was Oct 31 1993 my sons 1st birthday and it was a Sunday.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 31, 2018, 08:50:00 AM
I actually remember that. I was in High School, sitting in class watching it snow. Pretty shocking it was snowing that early.

Had enough to cover the grass and stick to all the trees in southeast KY.  Earliest snow that stuck that I've ever experienced around these parts.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 31, 2018, 08:57:47 AM
We are moving into secondary severe weather season. Previous years have been quiet during this period, maybe not so much this year. We shall see.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 31, 2018, 09:01:15 AM
GFS showing the first winter-like intense storm system early next week.   It develops in the Southern Plains along an old frontal boundary, and really winds up into a powerful cyclone as it heads into the Great Lakes/southeast Canada.  Heavy rain, storms and high winds are a good bet with this one. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 31, 2018, 09:04:54 AM
GFS showing the first winter-like intense storm system early next week.   It develops in the Southern Plains along an old frontal boundary, and really winds up into a powerful cyclone as it heads into the Great Lakes/southeast Canada.  Heavy rain, storms and high winds are a good bet with this one.


I see you Bruce


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[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on October 31, 2018, 09:49:40 AM

I see you Bruce


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#ShotsFired
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 31, 2018, 10:27:06 AM
#ShotsFired
least I waited this time to start mentioning it ...lol.  Frogge broke the ice on this one ... o had my eye on it from beginning though...  Iím ready for a chase... 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 31, 2018, 11:20:41 AM
Throwback

[attachimg=1]

Were the totals really that high?

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 31, 2018, 11:29:02 AM
Throwback

(Attachment Link)

Were the totals really that high?

That was Sandy, wasn't it?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 31, 2018, 11:30:42 AM
#ShotsFired

Nah no shots. Just know Bruce wants the severe weather.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 31, 2018, 11:40:23 AM
Throwback

(Attachment Link)

Were the totals really that high?

Here is the Mt Leconte Blog from Halloween 2012:

Well, we are hanging in there. It was a long night last night, for us and the hikers who came up. We had ten more guests show up between 7 pm and 11 pm. There were a few experienced hikers who love hiking in winter conditions. They said it was extremely difficult for them. It took some of them 10 hours to hike up Rainbow Falls trail. There are a lot of trees down on the trails. The hikers were telling stories of crawling under some of these blow downs. We currently have 34" of snow. The drifts are up to the roof on the dining hall. Chris and I snowshoed out Alum a little ways to check it out, it was hard with snow shoes. John and Bonnie hiked through waist deep snow to check out Cliff Tops. The temperatures are in the teens. The high yesterday was 20 with a low of 16. We are expecting another 3 inches on top of this snow.

Post Merge: October 31, 2018, 11:42:40 AM
least I waited this time to start mentioning it ...lol.  Frogge broke the ice on this one ... o had my eye on it from beginning though...  Iím ready for a chase...

Last nights euro had any severe well south into Southern AL/ GA. Its early so there's always a chance things move northward.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 31, 2018, 12:07:04 PM
Here is the Mt Leconte Blog from Halloween 2012:

Well, we are hanging in there. It was a long night last night, for us and the hikers who came up. We had ten more guests show up between 7 pm and 11 pm. There were a few experienced hikers who love hiking in winter conditions. They said it was extremely difficult for them. It took some of them 10 hours to hike up Rainbow Falls trail. There are a lot of trees down on the trails. The hikers were telling stories of crawling under some of these blow downs. We currently have 34" of snow. The drifts are up to the roof on the dining hall. Chris and I snowshoed out Alum a little ways to check it out, it was hard with snow shoes. John and Bonnie hiked through waist deep snow to check out Cliff Tops. The temperatures are in the teens. The high yesterday was 20 with a low of 16. We are expecting another 3 inches on top of this snow.

Post Merge: October 31, 2018, 11:42:40 AM
Last nights euro had any severe well south into Southern AL/ GA. Its early so there's always a chance things move northward.
euro has the trough much flatter ... reason is ejects it out much faster ... moisture return questionable .. but gfs says different ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 31, 2018, 01:07:03 PM
Throwback

(Attachment Link)

Were the totals really that high?

That was Hurricane Sandy that actually went backwards after making landfall in the northeast and became a hybrid nor'easter after merging with a powerful trough.  It snowed even in the foothills with that storm, but warm surface temperatures kept most of it from sticking.  Maybe my memory is failing me, but the snow totals in the valley areas seem overdone.  According to that, I would've received nearly a foot, and I don't remember anything like that. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 31, 2018, 01:50:28 PM
12z euro starting to go back to a more amped trough...mmm going be lit model watching next couple nights
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JHart on October 31, 2018, 02:42:19 PM
12z euro starting to go back to a more amped trough...mmm going be lit model watching next couple nights

Most of my model watching is done while lit.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 31, 2018, 02:57:27 PM
Most of my model watching is done while lit.

Keeps one warm on those long, cold winter nights waiting for the next run.   ;)

Post Merge: October 31, 2018, 03:27:54 PM
Throwback

(Attachment Link)

Were the totals really that high?

(http://i65.tinypic.com/29w98j6.png)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 31, 2018, 04:09:46 PM
Most of my model watching is done while lit.

Is there another time to watch them? Lol


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on October 31, 2018, 05:24:42 PM
Judging by the radar right now, rainfall totals are going to be well under the forecast for Middle TN, which is great news for this erosion control inspector!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: VandyMachine on October 31, 2018, 06:25:03 PM
is it me or is there pretty strong rotation on that isolated cell to the south west of Jackson (TN)?

(http://i63.tinypic.com/2ds4idh.png)
 
 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 31, 2018, 06:38:29 PM
is it me or is there pretty strong rotation on that isolated cell to the south west of Jackson (TN)?

TOR radar indicated for Madison Co. Bruce gets some local severe
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: VandyMachine on October 31, 2018, 06:43:09 PM
Pretty impressive hook on radar now.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on October 31, 2018, 06:58:00 PM
The sirens went off while I was driving home from work.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 31, 2018, 07:43:19 PM
I was working late this afternoon when the first shower moved through and had a jacket on. The wind was chilly. It now has that severe feeling outside. Crazy what difference..
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on October 31, 2018, 07:55:25 PM
BNA report. Weather was good for getting the kids out. Got our candy and, hopefully, going to get some rest. Rain looks eminent.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on November 01, 2018, 04:21:16 AM
i havenít used any heat yet.... loving saving utility part
It's Nov. 1st and I haven't touched the heat yet.  I can get by on the heat that's been built up inside.  I don't think we've gotten below 63 or so inside. 

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on November 01, 2018, 06:03:54 AM
It looks like all the severe is going well south of us along the Gulf coast and inland.  Sadly, that includes the FL panhandle where people are still trying to clean up from hurricane damage.  Areas hit with tropical systems this year are struggling to get a break from severe weather long enough to even start their recovery process.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 01, 2018, 06:49:45 AM
It looks like all the severe is going well south of us along the Gulf coast and inland.  Sadly, that includes the FL panhandle where people are still trying to clean up from hurricane damage.  Areas hit with tropical systems this year are struggling to get a break from severe weather long enough to even start their recovery process.
system next week going need watched real closely ... models trending more favor for severe weather mid south... very dynamic drive. System   Euro paint cape pushing 1000 over southern half ....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 01, 2018, 06:54:14 AM
Red sky in morning, sailors take warning. . .

(http://i65.tinypic.com/167poiw.jpg)

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on November 01, 2018, 08:19:05 AM
system next week going need watched real closely ... models trending more favor for severe weather mid south... very dynamic drive. System   Euro paint cape pushing 1000 over southern half ....
What's the time frame on this?

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on November 01, 2018, 08:21:25 AM
What's the time frame on this?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Nov 1st 2018-May 2nd 2019
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 01, 2018, 08:31:49 AM
What's the time frame on this?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
nov. 5th. 6th...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 01, 2018, 11:33:05 AM
Just talked to a truck driver coming from Missouri who said there was 11 semi trucks blown off the road on 55. I did not realize it got that rough last night. I slept through it.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 01, 2018, 11:57:15 AM
Just talked to a truck driver coming from Missouri who said there was 11 semi trucks blown off the road on 55. I did not realize it got that rough last night. I slept through it.
dont like to advertise other. Forums. But I am reader on other forums ... over talk weather. Great discussion going bout next weeks system ...  roll tide is a well respected member   Last post is quite alarming  anyone interested reading it ... this system has lot potential
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on November 01, 2018, 12:54:31 PM
TOR warning for Chattanooga. Decent rotation. Just called my wife and told her to head to the basement. Rotation will pass right over my house.
Edit: all good. Wasnít producing anything thankfully.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 01, 2018, 02:22:34 PM
12z euro is down right dangerous Monday night into Tuesday ... all I got to say ... Super Tuesday ?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on November 01, 2018, 02:30:23 PM
12z euro is down right dangerous Monday night into Tuesday ... all I got to say ... Super Tuesday ?

Eaaaaaasy there, Trigger.
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 01, 2018, 02:32:56 PM
12z euro is down right dangerous Monday night into Tuesday ... all I got to say ... Super Tuesday ?

Not the most unstable of air masses but will give some credit since LP is in a favorable position and we are in fall vs spring. The problem is itís 5-6 days away. We can post something different about it every day and come show time- may be something entirely different.

Edit- parameters on that one particular run look more sinister for the Ark-La-Miss than anywhere else IMO
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: wfrogge on November 01, 2018, 02:56:02 PM
Too early to say Tennessee is a target and too early to say its not.  The EURO for early morning on Tuesday around Huntsville screams outbreak but again its early.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 01, 2018, 03:00:35 PM
Too early to say Tennessee is a target and too early to say its not.  The EURO for early morning on Tuesday around Huntsville screams outbreak but again its early.
target actually southern mo to northern Louisiana Monday. Then spreads east lower Ohio valley to north central Miss Monday night ... per todayís euro run ...lot model watching coming for sure

Post Merge: November 02, 2018, 02:22:09 AM
Maybe time to start making a thread on the severe threat next week... which looks to be big .. gfs is caving to the euro...






Post Merge: November 02, 2018, 04:08:29 AM
Outstanding  afd from MEG this morning...  to be this far out from event ...

Post Merge: November 02, 2018, 04:22:36 AM
Wow. Day 4 enhances already. Sw Tennessee...large area slight ... day 5 will likely be enhanced by tomorrow s update way spc sounds ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on November 02, 2018, 06:48:26 AM
target actually southern mo to northern Louisiana Monday. Then spreads east lower Ohio valley to north central Miss Monday night ... per todayís euro run ...lot model watching coming for sure

Post Merge: November 02, 2018, 02:22:09 AM
Maybe time to start making a thread on the severe threat next week... which looks to be big .. gfs is caving to the euro...






Post Merge: November 02, 2018, 04:08:29 AM
Outstanding  afd from MEG this morning...  to be this far out from event ...

Post Merge: November 02, 2018, 04:22:36 AM
Wow. Day 4 enhances already. Sw Tennessee...large area slight ... day 5 will likely be enhanced by tomorrow s update way spc sounds ...

I would have to agree. A 15% hatched area for all of TN this far out doesnít need to be taken lightly anymore. North AL and at least southern Middle TN look like a loaded gun at the point.
Spann is already sounding the alarm. Start the thread!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on November 02, 2018, 06:54:55 AM
MRX is picking up on this for East TN as well:

Quote
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Next Tuesday...
A vigorous storm system will move across the Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalachians next Tuesday. A cold front will move
through the area producing widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some of these storms may be strong to severe producing heavy
rainfall and damaging winds.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed next Tuesday.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 02, 2018, 07:09:27 AM
MRX is picking up on this for East TN as well:

It appears this autumn may be far more active than the last several in terms of severe weather. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2018, 07:09:50 AM
I would have to agree. A 15% hatched area for all of TN this far out doesnít need to be taken lightly anymore. North AL and at least southern Middle TN look like a loaded gun at the point.
Spann is already sounding the alarm. Start the thread!
yeah... models are pretty well locking in now...just matter of small changes... last nites euro even increased cape for most midsouth...directional shear is perfect for turning and rotating... going be interesting to follow SPC ... look for a larger chunk of the state to go in the orange...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on November 02, 2018, 07:16:24 AM
It appears this autumn may be far more active than the last several in terms of severe weather.
I was out for dinner with a friend last night and driving home got to enjoy fairly gusty winds, some showers, and blowing leaves after dark.  Definitely nothing close to severe, but a real deal dark, stormy November night like I haven't seen in quite a while. 

I've got about an hour one-way commute for some work on Tuesday night so depending on the timing I may get to see more of that one than I'd like to.  ::wow::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 02, 2018, 08:58:20 AM
Plenty of time for change and no need for panic- will admit that setup as advertised esp GFS and even the euro is alarming. SPC has much of Arkansas / MS/ SW Tennessee under day 4 30%. They do admit that an outbreak is possible.

Lots of  time for changes.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2018, 09:17:25 AM
Plenty of time for change and no need for panic- will admit that setup as advertised esp GFS and even the euro is alarming. SPC has much of Arkansas / MS/ SW Tennessee under day 4 30%. They do admit that an outbreak is possible.

Lots of  time for changes.
were approaching less than 100 hrs to the timeframe... with gfs heading towards a euro solution ... both are big events... models bout locked in appears... just waiting for smaller details now
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: wfrogge on November 02, 2018, 10:18:08 AM
Told my boss yesterday that I am taking Monday afternoon off.  As of this minute the setup looks like something we have not seen in our region since 2013.  Hopefully folks take this treat seriously and prepare accordingly.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2018, 10:22:28 AM
Told my boss yesterday that I am taking Monday afternoon off.  As of this minute the setup looks like something we have not seen in our region since 2013.  Hopefully folks take this treat seriously and prepare accordingly.
i asked off yesterday myself... so im off monday too...this may be the best fall severe setup we have ever seen around here... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on November 02, 2018, 10:33:29 AM
Hopefully folks take this treat seriously and prepare accordingly.
Freudian slip?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2018, 10:34:42 AM
edit... may even have to take off tuesday... depending how long monday night n late i be out... also note  gfs wanting to slow the timing down some... soething to watch
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: wfrogge on November 02, 2018, 10:36:37 AM
Freudian slip?

Typo as im switching between work tabs and weather on my browser :)   Its appropriate so ill leave it
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2018, 10:40:52 AM
Freudian slip?
it is a treat to some us... thought he was serious... ;)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 02, 2018, 12:44:10 PM
This autumn has been perfect for many. Plenty of rainfall has delivered beautiful colors, and the cold weather came just in time. Most of our days have been peaking in the 60s or 70s and the nights have fallen to the 40s, nearly reaching freezing on a few occasions. And now we're expecting statewide severe weather. Bring it!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: wfrogge on November 02, 2018, 02:07:13 PM
edit... may even have to take off tuesday... depending how long monday night n late i be out... also note  gfs wanting to slow the timing down some... soething to watch

GFS speeds it up
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2018, 02:14:54 PM
GFS speeds it up
so has the euro. Looking alike a mid day afternoon event for east ark. West tn north ms
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: wfrogge on November 02, 2018, 02:15:58 PM
Watch the next run slow it down 6 hours....   ::rofl::

Time to move all talk for this event into the event thread
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on November 02, 2018, 03:56:02 PM
Whoís ready for some fantasy land stuff? Lol

12z GFS for 2 weeks out... (enjoy!)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181102/e7f6091b10fa026e358cb9561a64f6b3.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181102/bd1cc242c927d5d56ce5bafa6c1e8894.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181102/ecf4a64f77cb570910ffeb2ebe5c06c0.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on November 02, 2018, 11:29:02 PM
Whoís ready for some fantasy land stuff? Lol

12z GFS for 2 weeks out... (enjoy!)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181102/e7f6091b10fa026e358cb9561a64f6b3.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181102/bd1cc242c927d5d56ce5bafa6c1e8894.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181102/ecf4a64f77cb570910ffeb2ebe5c06c0.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And so it begins. The winter filled with 300hr fantasy storms.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 03, 2018, 07:19:50 AM
With the upcoming storm/wind threat, this may be our peak fall color weekend in east Tennessee.  Red oaks and maples have all turned a deep red/burgundy locally, but the maples have already started dropping leaves in earnest.  Heavy rain coupled with wind would defoliate most of the trees currently displaying the best color.  Sugar maples are displaying yellow and orange, but are also dropping leaves quickly.  Come Wednesday, I think the landscape will begin to look more like winter than fall. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on November 03, 2018, 07:27:32 AM
We were out with a neighbor and her daughter last night and her daughter was up to visit from Georgia.  She was taking pictures on the way into the event to send to her mother-in-law in Georgia who was asking to see some fall color; we've cooled off enough to get the show but Georgia apparently hasn't.  I'm hoping to get out and enjoy some good time at the park with my wife and the pup to enjoy the cool air and beautiful colors this weekend before it all comes crashing down early in the week.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 03, 2018, 07:48:55 AM
I dare say from observing some recent model runs, many here may at least see flakes flying over the coming weeks.  The middle of the country may see an early season snowstorm.  Euro has nearly a foot of snow falling over a large part of Kansas and Nebraska late next week.  Old Man Winter isn't wasting any time invading U.S. territory this year in an early blitz.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2018, 07:53:21 AM
I dare say from observing some recent model runs, many here may at least see flakes flying over the coming weeks.  The middle of the country may see an early season snowstorm.  Euro has nearly a foot of snow falling over a large part of Kansas and Nebraska late next week.  Old Man Winter isn't wasting any time invading U.S. territory this year in an early blitz.
yeah  good ole lake cutters...  thats what they turn out to be... this time year
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 03, 2018, 08:26:54 AM
yeah  good ole lake cutters...  thats what they turn out to be... this time year


That's ok.  I'll take some back side snow showers and flurries in November and be happy.  Come January the storm train tracks will shift southeast in our favor.   
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 03, 2018, 02:58:37 PM
Euro has an arctic front next Friday with low next weekend into the low and mid 20ís statewide. We have been down to 33 IMBY but nothing that really killed anything. Thatís about to change
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 03, 2018, 05:43:31 PM
Forecast for next week for my area. . .
Quote
Friday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday
A 10 percent chance of snow. Sunny, with a high near 50.

Yeah, I know.  Not much chance.  But it's the first time I've seen the "s" word in the forecast.   ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: EastTNWX on November 03, 2018, 05:55:57 PM
Snow wording in the 7 day forecast for Knoxville!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 04, 2018, 07:29:15 AM
Beautiful day ahead in east TN as the rain holds off until late.  Perfect day to get out and enjoy nature's fall display.  There may not be much color left after Tuesday. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on November 04, 2018, 11:47:41 AM
Beautiful day ahead in east TN as the rain holds off until late.  Perfect day to get out and enjoy nature's fall display.  There may not be much color left after Tuesday.
Iím a little surprised we donít have a wind advisory. A lot of things are blowing around my yard right now.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 04, 2018, 02:37:22 PM
Iím a little surprised we donít have a wind advisory. A lot of things are blowing around my yard right now.

Very interesting. Wind has been nonexistent here today.  Just the slightest breeze from the northeast.  Areas down in the southern valley are having gusty winds from the south and southeast.

Post Merge: November 05, 2018, 10:56:15 AM
It's raining leaves here at the homeplace.  Oaks, maples, and sweetgum trees are all dropping them with just the slightest breeze.  Tonight's heavy rain/wind will change the look of the woods come tomorrow with most of the leaves on the ground by then. 

Good day to stay home and enjoy it with the windows open.  The sweet smell the of the woods comes in on the wind, as the sugar in the leaves is breaking down.  Some think fall smells like pumpkin spice.  I prefer the scent of sugar maple in the morning. 
::coffee::
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 05, 2018, 07:37:45 AM
Snow wording in the 7 day forecast for Knoxville!

It was fleeting--came and went.  But with the active pattern we're settling into, along with increasingly cold shots, I wouldn't be surprised to see it reappear.  I think some may see flakes flying before Thanksgiving.  06Z GFS has snow coming down nearly statewide the middle of next week.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on November 05, 2018, 01:15:57 PM
12z GEFS looking interesting for next Tues-Thurs. Nothing spectacular, but it is the first potential wintry precip for most of us. May end up disappearing as usual, but first fun stuff to look at so far. Multiple members showing it, but not in agreement on timing.   :D

Edit: Fwiw, the GFS control was on this Friday (see my post up the page). So, at least the chance is hanging around for 3 days worth of updates. Let's see if it can make it about 9 more days lol.

Post Merge: November 05, 2018, 03:03:03 PM
Day 7-10 Temps on the Euro  ::cold::
It looks like some areas of East Tennessee aren't getting above 35 for nearly 60 hours (at least)? With lows in the upper teens? End of run is in 20s. Sheesh.  ::wow::
Check out these anomalies (F) for Wednesday afternoon next week.  ::faint::
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 05, 2018, 03:13:31 PM
12z GEFS looking interesting for next Tues-Thurs. Nothing spectacular, but it is the first potential wintry precip for most of us. May end up disappearing as usual, but first fun stuff to look at so far. Multiple members showing it, but not in agreement on timing.   :D

Edit: Fwiw, the GFS control was on this Friday (see my post up the page). So, at least the chance is hanging around for 3 days worth of updates. Let's see if it can make it about 9 more days lol.

Post Merge: November 05, 2018, 03:03:03 PM
Day 7-10 Temps on the Euro  ::cold::
It looks like some areas of East Tennessee aren't getting above 35 for nearly 60 hours (at least)? With lows in the upper teens? End of run is in 20s. Sheesh.  ::wow::
Check out these anomalies (F) for Wednesday afternoon next week.  ::faint::
(Attachment Link)

Glad the propane tank gets installed next week for my gas fireplace.  Bring it on!
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 05, 2018, 06:22:04 PM
Yeesh! 18Z GFS is showing a statewide snowfall event just 9 days from now. It won't happen, but it is nice to start getting hyped about fantasy storms this early in the cold season.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on November 05, 2018, 06:45:17 PM
Yeesh! 18Z GFS is showing a statewide snowfall event just 9 days from now. It won't happen, but it is nice to start getting hyped about fantasy storms this early in the cold season.

Yea, it seems a little early for these GFS fantasy storms to start showing up. Considering we are in early November. Maybe this is a good sign for DJFM to be cold and snowy.

(https://i.imgur.com/C88lxB1.png)
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 05, 2018, 10:50:12 PM
Fantasy storms in November are great, at least gets you to watching and in the spirit of things. It has been quite a while since we have had a good snow in November, and while it probably won't happen we may as well get some good fantasy storms out of the gate early this year. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 06, 2018, 05:26:29 AM
The storms showing up may be fantasy, but what's not a fantasy is the cold pattern that's on the horizon.  Several deep troughs will sustain cold here starting this weekend, and while accumulation is unlikely, I'd say many on the board may see their first flakes of the season next week.  Also, much of Tennessee will see their first dip below freezing this weekend. 

Overall, November is looking cold.  That's encouraging to me for the upcoming winter.  More often than not a cold November has foretold of a cold core winter (January/February). 
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on November 06, 2018, 08:22:30 AM
Yea, it seems a little early for these GFS fantasy storms to start showing up. Considering we are in early November. Maybe this is a good sign for DJFM to be cold and snowy.

(https://i.imgur.com/C88lxB1.png)
Looks like the Chattanooga snow shield has already been activated. I canít wait.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 06, 2018, 09:06:43 AM
There are some major below normal anomalies showing up next week. Pretty amazing for November.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: EastTNWX on November 06, 2018, 11:12:56 AM
At a minimum it looks like our first hard freeze next week perhaps (aside from mountains)? If it really gets as cold as it says I don't see how a few flakes don't fall in the valley locations as well.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 06, 2018, 01:10:00 PM
Looks a little chilly for mid November.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/ndk6z9.jpg)
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 06, 2018, 01:12:54 PM
If only this was January. . .

(http://i63.tinypic.com/2dvvq6a.png)
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on November 06, 2018, 04:54:43 PM
Yikes!!!

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181106/2f928814bad33e98ea23d7b603933007.jpg)


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Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 06, 2018, 06:30:00 PM
Looks a lot like the Nov. 2014 cold outbreak.

Post Merge: November 06, 2018, 08:29:00 PM
If the GFS hangs on to this little clipper traversing Kentucky and Tennessee next week, this may be something to watch. I'm interested in the 0Z GFS now.

I can't believe I'm tracking winter weather during the 1st week of November. That's a first.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on November 07, 2018, 02:55:21 AM
Looks a lot like the Nov. 2014 cold outbreak.

Post Merge: November 06, 2018, 08:29:00 PM
If the GFS hangs on to this little clipper traversing Kentucky and Tennessee next week, this may be something to watch. I'm interested in the 0Z GFS now.

I can't believe I'm tracking winter weather during the 1st week of November. That's a first.
Me either. Encouragingly nice blocking setup off the east coast has set in.  That combined with an active subtropical jet courtesy of the light-to-moderate El Nino and a deepening -PDO. Best November setup for FROPA we've had in several years.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 07, 2018, 05:34:07 AM
Let's hope it translates into a similar pattern when it matters the most--the heart of winter. 
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 07, 2018, 06:29:44 AM
OHX now showing rain/snow in the forecast grids Mon night and Tues.


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Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on November 07, 2018, 06:33:14 AM
OHX now showing rain/snow in the forecast grids Mon night and Tues.


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Bring it!
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: justinmundie on November 07, 2018, 06:39:16 AM
6z has a nice little accumulating snow for much of tn
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 07, 2018, 08:09:30 AM
Heck, I'll take what the 6z is showing in January!  That already beats last year for most of us. 
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 07, 2018, 09:06:12 AM
How much is it showing? and remember this time of year sun angles low like early winter has that benifit.
yeah. But ground temps warm also at this time ...
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on November 07, 2018, 09:12:15 AM
How much is it showing? and remember this time of year sun angles low like early winter has that benifit.
2-4Ē for most of middle and east Tn. 0-2Ē west of Nashville (roughly). But, itís 6z and 168-192 hours out. Worth watching though. GFS been hinting at something since Friday (Nov 2).


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Post Merge: November 07, 2018, 10:51:29 AM
...and 12z taketh away  lol
Limited to East Tennessee (1-3") on 12z run.
But...6 days out. So, it'll be nice to watch this develop (or disappear totally)
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on November 07, 2018, 12:10:02 PM
12z GFS killed it except for the mountains.  Not sure what the Euro says.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 07, 2018, 12:10:27 PM
I'm up for some of that lit model watching Bruce mentioned the other day.   ::pirate::
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 07, 2018, 12:22:40 PM
The 18z will bring it back!!! LOL! It's just fun having some winterlike fantasy runs this early, and who knows it might work out for somebody!!! ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 07, 2018, 12:47:56 PM
12z GFS killed it except for the mountains.  Not sure what the Euro says.

Euro is consistently an I-44 snow event from OKC to STL. We are on the ďwarmĒ side for the entire precip
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 07, 2018, 01:11:48 PM
Maybe fun to look at ... but did anyone really think  weee going get a accumulating snow here In November ...
Early November at that ... now 6 to 8 weeks from now ...
Could be game on then....
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 07, 2018, 02:22:21 PM
Maybe fun to look at ... but did anyone really think  weee going get a accumulating snow here In November ...
Early November at that ... now 6 to 8 weeks from now ...
Could be game on then....
Of course it's early, but it's fun to look at. Kind of like them fantasy tornadoes your always chasing. We are headed toward winter and winter talk, who knows somebody may get to see some snow flakes fly before the end of the month. It has happened before just not often, still fun to talk about for us that like snow. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 07, 2018, 02:23:50 PM
Especially when it was 90F a month ago
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 07, 2018, 02:36:55 PM
Especially when it was 90F a month ago
No doubt we are stepping down to some cooler temps next week even if only for a little while. ::cold:: ::popcorn:: ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 07, 2018, 03:25:42 PM
Of course it's early, but it's fun to look at. Kind of like them fantasy tornadoes your always chasing. We are headed toward winter and winter talk, who knows somebody may get to see some snow flakes fly before the end of the month. It has happened before just not often, still fun to talk about for us that like snow. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
for me. I get the best of both worlds ....I like severe... and winter storms .... just donít recall many snowfalls in November .... but Iím looking forward putting my two cents in on late night conversations ....
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on November 07, 2018, 04:04:35 PM
Some weather "on this date in history" fun...

Local Weather History For November 7th...
2 days of thunderstorms dumped 2.72" of rain on Knoxville in 1996. 1" of snow fell 3 days later.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 07, 2018, 05:12:13 PM
I've always heard about a storm that dumped several inches of snow on Nashville during the first few days of November in the 1970s. So, it can happen, although rare.

The Great Appalachians Storm of 1950 dumped heavy snow on much of the state in 1950, but that was obviously later in the month.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on November 07, 2018, 05:16:26 PM
A little later in the month but I remember a sleetfest in Greenville MS the weekend after thanksgiving in 1976 I believe.


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Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 07, 2018, 05:16:55 PM
It snowed in West TN in late November 2011.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 07, 2018, 05:39:01 PM
for me. I get the best of both worlds ....I like severe... and winter storms .... just donít recall many snowfalls in November .... but Iím looking forward putting my two cents in on late night conversations ....
There hasn't been many November snows, but they have happened. I have seen snow on the ground at Thanksgiving a few times. And in 1995 it snowed on Nov 9th which is my birthday, about a inch fell and stuck but most melted by the next morning. But I measured a solid inch on my deck out back that night. I remember it well I was watching UT and Memphis St play on TV. Manning and company got upset that night, and I was saying well at least it's snowing on my birthday. I did get to see UT beat ND in a great comeback in south bend on my birthday so I have had split success there. On the November snows front, in 1966 on November 2nd the mid state was hit by a rare snowstorm in which Nashville tied the 1950 Nov.24th record for it's greatest 1 day snowfall ever for November as they recorded 7.2 inches. On Nov 3rd Cookeville received 15.2 inches of snow smashing their November record for snow in November. I found that by looking up calendar of significant weather events in Tennessee. Also on Nov 22nd in 1950 Nashville received 5 inches of snow.  ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on November 07, 2018, 06:11:19 PM
Shouldn't snow talk chances for next week be going in the Fall thread? We're still 3 weeks away from even meteorological winter.
Title: Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 07, 2018, 06:16:49 PM
I received about a half-inch of snow in 2014.  Areas to my north had about 2-4 inches.  West TN had that ULL in November 2011 which happened to be that areas only snow for the 2011-12 season.  1950, 1951, and 1966 seem to be the big hitters in November.  We have even had some very rare snow events in October (1925 had 1 to 6 inches of snow from I-40 to the Ohio River and 1993 had measurable snow just before Halloween).   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 07, 2018, 10:24:17 PM
GFS is still holding on to our first lil' fantasy storm.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 07, 2018, 11:02:32 PM
00z says I am back! LOL! ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on November 08, 2018, 05:06:27 AM
OHX not impressed with next weekís snow chance:

Quote
For snow lovers out there,
this is nothing to throw a party about. In fact, the highest
PoPs/greatest moisture availability will be across the eastern
two-thirds of the CWA Tuesday morning, while the coldest
temperatures will still be entering the northwest third of the
area. In other words, the precipitation and cold air needed for
the frozen stuff will struggle to overlap. To be consistent,
however, did leave the mention of light rain/snow Tuesday morning
for areas generally along/west of I-65 and along/north of I-40.
This is still 5 to 6 days away, so expect more changes to this as
time draws nearer.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 08, 2018, 07:13:39 AM
OHX not impressed with next weekís snow chance:


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Probably shouldnít be impressed. The euro is incredibly consistent with a fairly major Texas panhandle snow storm which lightens up but heads up I-44. It does being enough moisture for a changeover into the West half of Tn- and when I say changeover itís just flurries.

The inconsistent GFS latest run has snow in LA and Jackson MS.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 08, 2018, 07:25:48 AM
GFS playing games early this year.  In any event, I'll be happy with backside flurries in November.   Flurries in fall is flippin' fantastic for this far south folks. 

EDIT:  Even the "new and improved" version of the GFS has enough snow coming down to coat the ground in parts of mid/east TN next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Something to watch, at least.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on November 08, 2018, 08:06:19 AM
GFS playing games early this year.  In any event, I'll be happy with backside flurries in November.   Flurries in fall is flippin' fantastic for this far south folks. 

EDIT:  Even the "new and improved" version of the GFS has enough snow coming down to coat the ground in parts of mid/east TN next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Something to watch, at least.

Same. I will be happy just to see it fly in the air pre-Thanksgiving!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on November 08, 2018, 09:23:21 AM
I noticed the intellicast color-coded regional p-type map is showing blue for the first time this season this morning in southern IL (see front page). My guess is that's virga or melting before reaching the ground, but at least that's something.  ;)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 08, 2018, 10:47:40 AM
Wait... no comments on the 12z gfs yet? ::snowman:: yíall. R slipping already lol
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 08, 2018, 11:22:18 AM
12z GFS much more robust with LP coming out of the gulf and interacting with arctic air at the surface. Puts down 2-3 inches from around Memphis to Cumberland Plateau.

12Z CMC much more supportive of Euro with snow back into Oklahoma and a brief changeover in much of Tennessee to flurries.

0z Euro- snow in Oklahoma/MO/ KS and basically little if any changeover anywhere in TN. We will see if reverses course today. Doubt it though.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 08, 2018, 11:36:00 AM
I noticed the intellicast color-coded regional p-type map is showing blue for the first time this season this morning in southern IL (see front page). My guess is that's virga or melting before reaching the ground, but at least that's something.  ;)
and it begins......
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 08, 2018, 12:28:37 PM
12z Euro took a baby step but targets SE MO before the whole thing kinda fizzles. No snow anywhere in TN. LP too far west for anyone here. It did move it further east so Northern Arkansas and Southern MO def changeover.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 08, 2018, 12:54:48 PM
And the growing season comes to an end.

Quote
Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
1104 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

...Freezing Temperatures Expected Saturday Morning...

.Behind tomorrow`s rain and frontal passage, a very cold air mass
will bring sub-freezing temperatures into East Tennessee. Saturday
morning lows will fall below freezing for everyone, but many on
the Cumberland Plateau and in the mountains of East TN will see
temperatures plummet into the low to middle 20s.


EDIT:  Also, under sunny skies, highs on Saturday are only forecast to reach the lower 40's.  That's January-like temperatures in November.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 08, 2018, 02:17:45 PM
The 12Z GFS is an ominous prelude for an I-44 snowstorm. We will get the rainy side of this one.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 08, 2018, 02:46:12 PM
It will probably be a I-44 special if it comes together, but some in Tennessee may see some backside stuff. That is the most likely scenario this early in the year, but surprises have happened before. Maybe at least the boothill and Arkansas may score. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 08, 2018, 02:57:20 PM
Maybe at least the boothill and Arkansas may score. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Yuck. Almost worse than North Carolina getting the snow.

North Carolina will always be remembered by Northerners as the state where THIS happened:[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 08, 2018, 03:05:29 PM
I was just thinking about the closest area to our northwest where the odds probably go up for this type of system so early in the year. Hopefully we will see some flakes fly, anything more next week will be a bonus. But I am all for a good sneak attack. Either way lots of winter left, and a snow even being mentioned this early in the year is a bonus.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 08, 2018, 03:07:30 PM
12z Euro took a baby step but targets SE MO before the whole thing kinda fizzles. No snow anywhere in TN. LP too far west for anyone here. It did move it further east so Northern Arkansas and Southern MO def changeover.
What little that I looked at it the new GFS was showing something similar. It was in between the Euro and GFS. That was yesterday. I have not looked today.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Beth on November 08, 2018, 06:44:47 PM
I seriously doubt it will be more than just a few token flurries here if that.  But I do remember one year in November in the mid 90s we had some steady flurries and my Mom(rip) and I had one of the best garage sales ever.  Inside of a my warm basement. 😊
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 08, 2018, 06:54:52 PM
18z GEFS has about 15 out of 20 members showing snow Monday night at Memphis with a mean of 1/2 . I would say unless thereís a drastic change seeing a few snowflakes in the air is a decent possibility.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 08, 2018, 07:09:33 PM
If this storm is still around on Sunday, I'll have higher hopes someone will see accumulating snow. Until then, this is nothing more than just interesting.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 08, 2018, 07:30:43 PM
I seriously doubt it will be more than just a few token flurries here if that.  But I do remember one year in November in the mid 90s we had some steady flurries and my Mom(rip) and I had one of the best garage sales ever.  Inside of a my warm basement. 😊
Probably 1995, it snowed on the 9th of November that year. About a inch on the ground here by nightfall, a little bit was still on the ground the next morning but it was all gone by noon. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 08, 2018, 09:02:06 PM
November 1976 ( I was a kid back then) had a light snow event mid month state wide followed by a sleet event with an arctic front to close the month. I do remember being able to sled in the latter event. 76-77 is actually a decent analog year with similar enso state (Modoki El NiŮo).

It seems just based on my personal experience, that winters that can get cold starting in November are usually over producers at some point with winter precip. Doesnít guarantee it but seems more likely than those that torched until December.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on November 09, 2018, 06:36:18 AM
It feels like a somewhat classic November day in Knoxville today.  Dark, raining, the temps will start dropping at about lunchtime, and tomorrow looks like the coldest day we've seen since maybe March.  I hope everybody can stay in tomorrow and enjoy a hot fire and comfort food.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 09, 2018, 07:04:15 AM
Both the new and old GFS came in hot this morning for west Tn. 3 to 4 inches.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 09, 2018, 07:07:01 AM
November 1976 ( I was a kid back then) had a light snow event mid month state wide followed by a sleet event with an arctic front to close the month. I do remember being able to sled in the latter event. 76-77 is actually a decent analog year with similar enso state (Modoki El NiŮo).

It seems just based on my personal experience, that winters that can get cold starting in November are usually over producers at some point with winter precip. Doesnít guarantee it but seems more likely than those that torched until December.

As you said, it doesn't guarantee a colder winter, but November can be a sign of things to come by January.  Even the winter we all love to talk about (I shouldn't even have to say what year at this point) had a very cold November that lasted into the first week of December when an accumulating snow fell in Kentucky--heavily in some areas.  We torched big-time for the rest of December until the New Year, but the Arctic gates swung wide open in January.  No, I'm not saying this winter we be anything like that, but I have seen more winters that were cold biased after a November with powerful cold outbreaks, than were skewed warmer. 

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on November 09, 2018, 07:13:37 AM
Both the new and old GFS came in hot this morning for west Tn. 3 to 4 inches.

The CMC was a solid hit too. Again, I would just be thrilled to see snow fall!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 09, 2018, 08:08:39 AM
Heavy rain, dark skies, and temperatures dropping into the 40's today.  Certainly feels like winter pressing in. 

Temperatures continue to drop in the forecast.  Now down to 26 for a Sunday morning low. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on November 09, 2018, 08:22:52 AM
The next few mornings may be a good opportunity to see some "frost flowers" in vegetation low to the ground. That's where still actively growing/green ground plants rupture in freezing conditions, and the fluid from the stems bust out and freeze, making some nice little ice formations on the ground. You'll see the effect best in unmowed areas.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 09, 2018, 09:21:40 AM
Early indications has thanksgiving weeks stormy... just something watch since itís a big travel holiday ... and at this stage ... not talking bout winter storm either ...normally I wouldnít be looking this far out .. but thanksgiving big time ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Michael on November 09, 2018, 10:24:25 AM
12z GFS still showing some white stuff for at least western 2/3 of state on Tuesday. Just coming into NAM's range. 12z NAM h84 slightly south and east of 12z GFS. Definitely something to watch as models have continued to show some snow for Tuesday for several runs now. Will be interesting to see how Euro matches up with GFS and NAM. I have not seen CMC yet.

Edit: 12z CMC almost lock and step with 12z GFS. Maybe slightly more robust.

Looks like GFS/CMC are developing a low in the gulf and running it up the coast, inland. Definitely starting to get interesting, especially for you mid/west tn folks.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 09, 2018, 11:11:41 AM
It's fun to see the models continue to advertise some winter fun next week. Headed to Knoxville in the morning for the football game but I will be checking in while there keeping up with the model runs. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 09, 2018, 12:29:08 PM
It's fun to see the models continue to advertise some winter fun next week. Headed to Knoxville in the morning for the football game but I will be checking in while there keeping up with the model runs. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Safe travels to our side of the state.   8)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Michael on November 09, 2018, 01:28:50 PM
Tuesday's system...
12z Euro has low developing in gulf, becoming a closed off Low around New Jersey (inland). Snow is further west than GFS/CMC/NAM. The GFS/CMC has low developing in gulf, becoming closed off Low just off southeast coast of VA. Thus, snow is further east. NAM is just starting to get in on this, but appears to be following GFS/NAM.

So...battle of the models? At his point, it appears some parts of TN will see snow on Tuesday. Just how much of TN sees it is still TBD. At least we got something fun to watch, and it's just getting into mid November!  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BALLPARK on November 09, 2018, 01:56:36 PM
Be a great start to the winter season if we can cash in. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 09, 2018, 04:25:10 PM
18Z GFS run further represents a trend toward an I-44 storm.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 09, 2018, 04:29:32 PM
18Z GFS run further represents a trend toward an I-44 storm.
18z . Throw it out.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 09, 2018, 04:31:05 PM
18z . Throw it out.  ::rofl::

Well, it looks good for Dyersburg at least.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 09, 2018, 05:05:24 PM
Hwy 441 at Newfound Gap will be closing shortly as temperatures are expected to plummet to near 20, and a light coating of snow could fall on the freezing roadway overnight. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 09, 2018, 05:36:05 PM
18z didn't look bad for west and western middle parts of tn on up into kentucky. Still a few days out but the system is still there. Nobody is expecting a big dog but if snow is flying in early November it's a win. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on November 09, 2018, 05:43:23 PM
I am in St Louis and it just started snowing.  ::snowman:: Iím counting it as my first snow of the year!

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 09, 2018, 06:04:16 PM
I am in St Louis and it just started snowing.  ::snowman:: Iím counting it as my first snow of the year!
You are cheating. Does not count
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on November 09, 2018, 06:25:25 PM
You are cheating. Does not count

Bridges up this way are already snow covered, so tell my overly nervous friend driving the rental car that it doesnít count.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 09, 2018, 09:05:20 PM
The well-below normal temperatures next week are transient. We will return to near average temperatures after the following weekend.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 09, 2018, 09:18:28 PM
The well-below normal temperatures next week are transient. We will return to near average temperatures after the following weekend.
yeah  and going into thanksgiving week...  even above average... out ahead of a major storm system
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Brad on November 09, 2018, 09:38:45 PM
The next few mornings may be a good opportunity to see some "frost flowers" in vegetation low to the ground. That's where still actively growing/green ground plants rupture in freezing conditions, and the fluid from the stems bust out and freeze, making some nice little ice formations on the ground. You'll see the effect best in unmowed areas.

Speaking of frost flowers - has anyone ever seen this effect on a morning when you get a frost? Snapped the picture as I pulled out of my driveway a few weeks ago when we had a couple frosty mornings. First Iíve ever seen it happen and have no idea what would cause it.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181110/c4c4831715d8dacb12fb4aa1f7e09094.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BALLPARK on November 09, 2018, 10:29:11 PM
So who is going to start a thread for the Potential Snow storm on Nov 12 and 13?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 10, 2018, 06:49:39 AM
Over half of Tennessee endured their first night below 32.  Middle/West Tennessee dipped into the upper 20's to near 30.  Lingering clouds kept parts of eastern TN above freezing with most areas around 32 to 34.  Just touched 32 here as the sun begins to rise. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on November 10, 2018, 07:31:12 AM
Speaking of frost flowers - has anyone ever seen this effect on a morning when you get a frost? Snapped the picture as I pulled out of my driveway a few weeks ago when we had a couple frosty mornings. First Iíve ever seen it happen and have no idea what would cause it.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181110/c4c4831715d8dacb12fb4aa1f7e09094.jpg)

I drove past a bermuda lawn the other day (that was well trimmed and maintained like a golf course), and there was a ripple pattern in how the grass was dying off. Previous frosts had started the process of the turf going into dormancy. But, the wave pattern of alternating green and yellowed grass caught my eye. Your picture reminds me slightly of that look. It almost looks like something is woven underneath the turf causing some sort of effect. But, Iím not sure.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 10, 2018, 09:05:55 AM
I drove past a bermuda lawn the other day (that was well trimmed and maintained like a golf course), and there was a ripple pattern in how the grass was dying off. Previous frosts had started the process of the turf going into dormancy. But, the wave pattern of alternating green and yellowed grass caught my eye. Your picture reminds me slightly of that look. It almost looks like something is woven underneath the turf causing some sort of effect. But, Iím not sure.


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Bermuda grass in notorious for this. I think this is caused by moisture content in the grass.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 10, 2018, 11:08:50 AM
This is classic frost injury for Bermuda Grass. Its called Tiger Stripping and can be more common in some lawns then others. It has to do with the root zone depth if I remember correctly and how air moisture moves in the soil.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Michael on November 10, 2018, 12:24:12 PM
So who is going to start a thread for the Potential Snow storm on Nov 12 and 13?
Itís probably not necessary based on recent model trends. Pretty much all of them keep the snow just west of us. Far west Tn may see a brief period. But, unless thereís a SE trend, all middle and east tn will see is maybe backside flurries.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on November 10, 2018, 12:48:55 PM
At face value the GFS will have at least a few flakes flying twice at Chattanooga in the next week. Once Tuesday night, then again next weekend. Obviously no accumulation from either day, but Iím just happy to see flurries this time of year.  Gonna be an interesting week with potential flooding Monday, then way below normal temps.
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 10, 2018, 12:56:49 PM
Got down to upper 20ís last night but had a decent wind preventing frost. Tonight and a couple nights next week should do the trick.

As far as snow in these parts... the Gfs is most bullish on a few flakes with most meager accumulation in the Ozarks and SEMO. Cmc looks weird and the euro just says nope to anyone.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on November 10, 2018, 02:20:57 PM
Probably going to see some upper teens around the area Tues night/Wed morning.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BALLPARK on November 10, 2018, 02:41:10 PM
I hope GFS is right. Its got a couple inches at my house. ::snowman::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 10, 2018, 08:25:57 PM
Already below 31 at 9 p.m.  We're headed into the deep freeze tonight. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: stayrose38 on November 11, 2018, 02:54:20 AM
first official freeze in the Noog as of 2 hours ago.. last year it was in late Oct.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 11, 2018, 06:06:29 AM
Down to 26.0 this morning at first light.  Cars and roofs covered in frost.  2018 growing season is now in the past.

Post Merge: November 11, 2018, 06:13:35 AM
I saw 19 reported in Marshall County this morning (in south central TN).
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 11, 2018, 06:36:13 AM
Models showing a upper level low swinging through the area ... late wed. In to early Thursday.... thatís going be our best shot of seeing the seasons first snow flakes ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JHart on November 11, 2018, 06:46:14 AM
We dropped to 20F out here in LascassasÖ the coldest temperature since late January for us. ::cold::

My better half has decided that we (I) will string Christmas lights on the house this afternoon.  I will be counting every degree of the predicted warmup.

The lights will NOT be turned on yet.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 11, 2018, 07:21:31 AM
We dropped to 20F out here in LascassasÖ the coldest temperature since late January for us. ::cold::

My better half has decided that we (I) will string Christmas lights on the house this afternoon.  I will be counting every degree of the predicted warmup.

The lights will NOT be turned on yet.

I guess that 19 I saw reported was correct then.  Some really cold temperatures overnight under clear, calm skies. 

Sun is up, but temperatures have only responded grudgingly.  Up to 28 from the earlier 26.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Coach B on November 11, 2018, 08:00:28 AM
I had 21 on the hill. Saw 19 on the hourly obs for Lewisburg. Based on past experience it is legit.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on November 11, 2018, 08:08:20 AM
22.4 IMBY.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on November 11, 2018, 08:09:52 AM
Pictures coming in of the ďfrost flowerĒ event this morning, including in this post from the NWS Nashville: https://www.facebook.com/121353247940968/posts/1962653380477603/

Look for some this morning if you have a chance... but, be sure to bundle up! ::cold::


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on November 11, 2018, 08:10:01 AM
Models showing a upper level low swinging through the area ... late wed. In to early Thursday.... thatís going be our best shot of seeing the seasons first snow flakes ...

MEG mentioned it this morning. Could be the best shot this upcoming week.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 11, 2018, 12:45:27 PM
Wouldn't be surprised by a torch around Thanksgiving
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 11, 2018, 12:51:40 PM
Surprisingly there is really good agreement between the GFS and Euro on the ULL mid week. Looks like SE Missouri is the sweet spot atm.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 11, 2018, 01:06:16 PM
Surprisingly there is really good agreement between the GFS and Euro on the ULL mid week. Looks like SE Missouri is the sweet spot atm.

ULL is a weathermanís woe; it will have some cold air to work with if youíre on the NW side but will have to generate some of its own
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 11, 2018, 01:09:04 PM
Surprisingly there is really good agreement between the GFS and Euro on the ULL mid week. Looks like SE Missouri is the sweet spot atm.

That is an interesting look for your end of the state. GFS and Euro eased back on the hard freeze, making any chance winter precip in East Tennessee unlikely, but the wrap-around on that mid-week system could produce some accumulating snow for you overnight.

Another factor is a tropical disturbance expected to roll into the Caribbean mid-week. NOAA forecasts a 60% chance of that developing.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 11, 2018, 01:12:10 PM
Wouldn't be surprised by a torch around Thanksgiving


In terms of the last decade or so, we've had more Thanksgivings with the windows open than with the fireplace going.  The house tends to overheat with the oven on all day and it's 70 outside.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on November 11, 2018, 04:30:08 PM
I spent the weekend in Kingsport with friends. First time Iíve ever been to that corner of the state. We got down to 25 there. When I got home this afternoon, my weather station reported a low temp of 23. Iím a little skeptical of that OB. Airport got down to 27 and it is only 5 miles away.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 11, 2018, 04:32:13 PM
The entire state looks to receive 1-2 inches of rain this week.  The eastern end should see the heaviest amounts.
(http://i67.tinypic.com/1058vbn.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 11, 2018, 10:03:07 PM
GFS be GFSín

(http://i67.tinypic.com/2jdj1i8.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 11, 2018, 10:37:23 PM
It's creeping farther East.  >:D

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 12, 2018, 08:07:23 AM
This week will be winter-like for our area even if snow doesn't make an appearance.  4 days of rain with temperatures stuck in the 40's.  The Sun doesn't make a real appearance until Friday.  That's November for ya. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on November 12, 2018, 08:11:56 AM
This week will be winter-like for our area even if snow doesn't make an appearance.  4 days of rain with temperatures stuck in the 40's.  The Sun doesn't make a real appearance until Friday.  That's November for ya.
::candle:: Goodbye sunlight, until spring...  ::candle::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 12, 2018, 08:15:05 AM
This week will be winter-like for our area even if snow doesn't make an appearance.  4 days of rain with temperatures stuck in the 40's.  The Sun doesn't make a real appearance until Friday.  That's November for ya.
this weather here can take a hike ... nothing more boring nor depressing than a cloudy cool rainy day...  now real winter means snow storms and major ice storms. Thatís winter ... or period where it torches and get a winter severe setup ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 12, 2018, 08:28:35 AM
::candle:: Goodbye sunlight, until spring...  ::candle::

I think bears have the right idea--just sleep till it's over with. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2018, 11:04:15 AM
Real interesting set up for west state- and perhaps just extreme west depending on track of the ULL and Wed night. General consensus has it closing off over SE Arkansas and moving into West TN. The bull's-eye for now is SE MO with lighter snow into East AR and West TN. The devil is always in the detail with these kind of things. Usually there are some surprises and disappointments' along a very thin line.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 12, 2018, 01:58:20 PM
Euro come a little east. It is the most robust of all models.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/20u6aol.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: justinmundie on November 12, 2018, 02:04:51 PM
I gotta say - itís kinda nice to watch this from afar knowing no amount of ULL craziness will cause it to snow in central alabama
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 12, 2018, 02:40:58 PM
Wonder. Meg pull the trigger on some winter products overnight.. pretty good model consistency ... especially along the ms river counties and towards ne Arkansas ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2018, 03:26:07 PM
Latest model runs are a little more bullish on flakes in Nashville and higher elevations in East Tennessee.
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Michael on November 13, 2018, 05:59:43 PM
FWIW...
18z GEFS has basically every member showing flakes flying for practically the whole state at 00z Friday (Thursday evening). If you look at the time frame for 18z Fri and this one, we all basically would see flakes. Based on this...but we all know itíll change. Point is...thereís opportunity for all of us to see flakes flying in the next 24-60 hours.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181113/28d9a472ae40ae3c62344f5b20adb154.jpg)


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 13, 2018, 08:37:52 PM
Been a British Isles kind of day.  Steady rain ended this morning, but afterwards we've had a continuous heavy drizzle or mist falling here in the foothills.  Just took the dogs out to do their business, and it's still occurring.  Nothing shows up on radar, but I had to dry off the dogs after being out in it for just a few minutes. 

Speaking of the weather feeling British, two more days of steady rain are still on the way.  I think we can cancel wildfire season this year. 
 

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on November 13, 2018, 08:47:19 PM
I was in Sevierville for work tonight and when I got out to fill up with gas there was enough wind driving that fine mist that I literally had to turn my collar up.  Sticking with the British Isles theme, when I got home a couple of Christmas presents had shown up for family, both in their respective clan tartans.  Scotland Forever!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 13, 2018, 08:47:24 PM
Cure the world, make it a better place. For you and for me and the human race.  :angel: Good luck folks in West TN. Flying back Friday, so will miss the winter weather in our region. Happy Dance for luck tho!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 14, 2018, 08:43:49 AM
I was in Sevierville for work tonight and when I got out to fill up with gas there was enough wind driving that fine mist that I literally had to turn my collar up.  Sticking with the British Isles theme, when I got home a couple of Christmas presents had shown up for family, both in their respective clan tartans.  Scotland Forever!

That mist was heavy enough to add up to .18" by day's end. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on November 14, 2018, 09:03:43 AM
That mist was heavy enough to add up to .18" by day's end.
Based on how the water had piled up on my car when I left to go home last night I believe it.  It was weird; it was cold enough that the water stuck together and laid on my car in a thick layer, but when I tapped my windshield wipers it was entirely liquid.  It was even stuck on my side windows so thick that I couldn't see out of them, but as soon as I started moving it just rolled off, nothing frozen at all.  Very unusual and I'm not sure I've ever seen it quite like it was last night.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 14, 2018, 05:12:11 PM
Interesting fact shared by local meteorologist Todd Howell--today's high of 42 in Knoxville is the coldest high temperature in November in 3 years.  Basically, it takes us back to before the Super Nino of '16 torched the atmosphere.  That's a good sign for the upcoming winter!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 14, 2018, 06:32:05 PM
Interesting fact shared by local meteorologist Todd Howell--today's high of 42 in Knoxville is the coldest high temperature in November in 3 years.  Basically, it takes us back to before the Super Nino of '16 torched the atmosphere.  That's a good sign for the upcoming winter!

Unfortunately, 2018 is on track to finish as the Earth's 4th hottest year on record.

I'm thankful we caught a break from excessive heat this year. Europe had a record-setting hot summer.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 14, 2018, 08:26:22 PM
Unfortunately, 2018 is on track to finish as the Earth's 4th hottest year on record.

I'm thankful we caught a break from excessive heat this year. Europe had a record-setting hot summer.


We are definitely in warm times.  Even in our colder winters a few years back, the eastern U.S. was one of the few cold places in the Northern Hemisphere.  Most other continents during those winters were warm compared to normal.  One has to wonder when the warmth will end.  In the meantime, here's hoping our part of the globe is one of the few cold places again this winter.   ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on November 15, 2018, 08:35:12 PM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

The AO looks to be going in the tank to close out this month.  The NAO may even follow suit.  After a brief warmup after Thanksgiving, we may start Meteorological Winter on the cold side.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 16, 2018, 07:57:55 AM
Mother nature gives us a break from the soggy weather with some (welcome) sunny days ahead, but temperatures will drop from slightly below normal Saturday to even cooler weather in the lower to mid 50's next week.  Normal for Knoxville is near 60 this time of year.

Toward the end of the month, some major blocking starts to build in the high latitudes tanking the AO as StormNine noted.  Winter may send us another shot of fun stuff toward the end of the month into early December.  One has to feel pumped looking at the pattern trying to lock in. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 16, 2018, 08:15:39 AM
Mother nature gives us a break from the soggy weather with some (welcome) sunny days ahead, but temperatures will drop from slightly below normal Saturday to even cooler weather in the lower to mid 50's next week.  Normal for Knoxville is near 60 this time of year.

Toward the end of the month, some major blocking starts to build in the high latitudes tanking the AO as StormNine noted.  Winter may send us another shot of fun stuff toward the end of the month into early December.  One has to feel pumped looking at the pattern trying to lock in.
yeah... agree... top analog I been seeing... along with 09 10... the 76 77 keeps popping up around lot... boy if its anywhere near 76 77... fun times ahead for sure... and many late nigh model hugging...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on November 16, 2018, 08:23:06 AM
Thanksgiving week looks great. I like seasonably cool but clear weather for Thanksgiving, for travelers and outdoor activities to try to offset a portion of the calories consumed.  ::yum:: ::whistling::

Then, hopefully, we can circle back around to wintry chances in December to get things festive toward Christmas.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on November 16, 2018, 08:25:55 AM
yeah... agree... top analog I been seeing... along with 09 10... the 76 77 keeps popping up around lot... boy if its anywhere near 76 77... fun times ahead for sure... and many late nigh model hugging...

Oh yeah 76-77 would be awesome for sure!


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on November 16, 2018, 08:46:33 AM
My winterizer for the lawn is thoroughly in the root zone after this weeks rain. Looking forward to some sunny days to dry out the ground so I can get back to mowing. Looks to be a glorious weekend after this cold week.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 16, 2018, 08:53:51 AM
yeah... agree... top analog I been seeing... along with 09 10... the 76 77 keeps popping up around lot... boy if its anywhere near 76 77... fun times ahead for sure... and many late nigh model hugging...

Late lit model hugging.  ::guitar::

If we had a winter even remotely like '77, TNWX would implode and explode all at the same time.  Think supernova. 

(https://media.giphy.com/media/llYJzggcaBLOM/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on November 16, 2018, 09:17:32 AM
Late lit model hugging.  ::guitar::

If we had a winter even remotely like '77, TNWX would implode and explode all at the same time.  Think supernova. 

(https://media.giphy.com/media/llYJzggcaBLOM/giphy.gif)

(https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MQ9B6AkGWkA/WQ9_VV1LH3I/AAAAAAAAHMQ/UfRsVpuvRZ0BDHw8u-EMQBRzKkqHt2J7gCLcB/s1600/Star%2BImploding.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Coach B on November 16, 2018, 11:49:07 AM

If we had a winter even remotely like '77, TNWX would implode and explode all at the same time.  Think supernova. 

How about the following rough stats pulled from the NOW data for Nashville:

12/29/76 - 1/31/77
20.3" of snow
27 out of 34 days with snowcover
only 1 rain event
7 winter events
12 days with lows in the single digits or lower
only 6 out of 34 days with highs above 40
T or more of snow on 14 days
only 2 days above normal

If you think thats impressive check out what happened the very next winter!
1/9/78 - 3/4/78:
24" of snow
31 days with a T or more of snow
50 days with snowcover

incredible 36 straight days with snowcover from 1/9 thru 2/13
23 days with highs below freezing
10 winter events
2 rain events
only 1 day out of 63 above normal
only 1 day out of 63 with a high over 50

No wonder they thought we were going into an ice age. Hard to believe that was only 40 years ago.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on November 16, 2018, 12:24:30 PM
Iíll gladly take that this winter!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 16, 2018, 05:12:50 PM
A testament to how much rain our region has seen this year (and autumn): All 9 dams along the Tennessee River are spilling water, currently, and several lakes are at their highest levels ever for this time of year.

https://www.wbir.com/article/news/local/after-rainy-fall-tva-spilling-at-tennessee-river-dams/51-615047236 (https://www.wbir.com/article/news/local/after-rainy-fall-tva-spilling-at-tennessee-river-dams/51-615047236)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: wfrogge on November 18, 2018, 06:32:24 PM
Looks like we get cold again after thanksgiving
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 19, 2018, 07:43:57 AM
How about the following rough stats pulled from the NOW data for Nashville:

12/29/76 - 1/31/77
20.3" of snow
27 out of 34 days with snowcover
only 1 rain event
7 winter events
12 days with lows in the single digits or lower
only 6 out of 34 days with highs above 40
T or more of snow on 14 days
only 2 days above normal

If you think thats impressive check out what happened the very next winter!
1/9/78 - 3/4/78:
24" of snow
31 days with a T or more of snow
50 days with snowcover

incredible 36 straight days with snowcover from 1/9 thru 2/13
23 days with highs below freezing
10 winter events
2 rain events
only 1 day out of 63 above normal
only 1 day out of 63 with a high over 50

No wonder they thought we were going into an ice age. Hard to believe that was only 40 years ago.
I was 13-14 years old during them winters, I believe we will see that type of winter again at some point. That is why I watch winter, I also want to see the 12" inch 24 hour record snowfall record fall in Clarksville. We actually have made a run at it a time or 2 over the years. That's the goals I have, even if they aren't reached that we will make runs at them from time to time.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 21, 2018, 08:23:11 AM
Looks like good traveling weather today.

Happy Thanksgiving y'all !  Safe travels, if that's on the agenda.  Traffic is already heavy here this morning. 

With all it's flaws, I'm thankful to live in the U.S.A., and grateful to the good Lord above for my family, friends, and an abundance of food.  We are truly blessed big-time. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 21, 2018, 11:20:09 AM
Looks like good traveling weather today.

Happy Thanksgiving y'all !  Safe travels, if that's on the agenda.  Traffic is already heavy here this morning. 

With all it's flaws, I'm thankful to live in the U.S.A., and grateful to the good Lord above for my family, friends, and an abundance of food.  We are truly blessed big-time.
agree... Iím blessed for my good health ... family... and my good job I got ....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 22, 2018, 07:24:35 AM
Happy Thanksgiving everybody!

Interesting weather this year--especially for the big parade. 

https://fox6now.com/2018/11/22/the-coldest-thanksgiving-in-over-a-century-for-millions-plus-traffic-troubles/ (https://fox6now.com/2018/11/22/the-coldest-thanksgiving-in-over-a-century-for-millions-plus-traffic-troubles/)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: stayrose38 on November 25, 2018, 03:13:57 AM
hmm... looking cold in the long term, at least in Central Canada:

Post Merge: November 25, 2018, 03:14:49 AM
ahh can't cut n paste maps here.. **** this stupid site.

Post Merge: November 25, 2018, 03:15:29 AM
no wonder no one posts here.. stupid site.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 25, 2018, 05:24:15 AM
Most surrounding offices to MRX have issued dense fog advisories--except for MRX.  They've decided not to issue an advisory, despite the morning forecast of "widespread dense fog."  Doesn't make a lot of sense.
Quote
Today
Widespread dense fog, mainly before 7am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 62. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on November 25, 2018, 07:40:03 AM
hmm... looking cold in the long term, at least in Central Canada:

Post Merge: November 25, 2018, 03:14:49 AM
ahh can't cut n paste maps here.. **** this stupid site.

Post Merge: November 25, 2018, 03:15:29 AM
no wonder no one posts here.. stupid site.

You good? 😂
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 25, 2018, 09:25:53 AM
hmm... looking cold in the long term, at least in Central Canada:

Post Merge: November 25, 2018, 03:14:49 AM
ahh can't cut n paste maps here.. **** this stupid site.

Post Merge: November 25, 2018, 03:15:29 AM
no wonder no one posts here.. stupid site.

Welcome to the board, I guess. You should be able to post images, but you may have to get to 10 posts first. At least that's what I remember before I could post here.

Post Merge: November 25, 2018, 09:17:28 PM
Plateau and Mtns. may pick up an inch or two Monday night.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 25, 2018, 09:34:25 PM
hmm... looking cold in the long term, at least in Central Canada:

Post Merge: November 25, 2018, 03:14:49 AM
ahh can't cut n paste maps here.. **** this stupid site.

Post Merge: November 25, 2018, 03:15:29 AM
no wonder no one posts here.. stupid site.


I would suggest eating a gigantic bag of hot dogs, that may help.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on November 25, 2018, 10:03:15 PM
I would consider that unexpected convection on radar right now.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 26, 2018, 08:37:27 AM
Interesting wave formations (or ripples) in the clouds this morning caused by the air flowing over the Plateau.

(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/se/GEOCOLOR/20183301422_GOES16-ABI-se-GEOCOLOR-600x600.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on November 26, 2018, 09:32:00 AM
hmm... looking cold in the long term, at least in Central Canada:

Post Merge: November 25, 2018, 03:14:49 AM
ahh can't cut n paste maps here.. **** this stupid site.

Post Merge: November 25, 2018, 03:15:29 AM
no wonder no one posts here.. stupid site.

Mama always said- nothing good happens at 3:00 AM.  ;)

Not sure what you were trying to do. If you were wanting to post an image, you could post a link to the image url within "[ img]" tags. This site uses bbcode syntax... not sure what you are used to or how you were trying to do it. This is not some social media outlet like FB or Twitter; it's an older-style message board. You can't simply copy and paste an image directly into the post editor. It doesn't work that way. There's a bit more to it than that.

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on November 26, 2018, 09:59:18 AM
This is not some social media outlet like FB or Twitter; it's an older-style message board.
We old school, yo.
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on November 26, 2018, 10:17:07 AM
We old school, yo.
(Attachment Link)

In my day, we had to insert 5 1/4 inch floppy disks in both Drive A and Drive B in order for the program to load.

I can still hear the sound of the disk drives reading... even before the days of the sounds of the newfangled dial-up modem.

(https://i.imgur.com/VLmJIOH.png)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 26, 2018, 10:18:46 AM
In my day, we had to insert 5 1/4 inch floppy disks in both Drive A and Drive B in order for the program to load.

I can still hear the sound of the disk drives reading... even before the days of the sounds of the newfangled dial-up modem.

(https://i.imgur.com/VLmJIOH.png)

All the ways us Gen Xíers have had to suffer through the years.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on November 26, 2018, 10:20:42 AM
I remember the TI-99 my Dad went through grad school with that was pre-floppy disc and pre-internal HDD; you bought programs on cartridges and saved your work on an audio cassette.  Data being data the audio cassettes when played sounded just like the modems that didn't come out until many years later!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 26, 2018, 10:27:52 AM
I remember the TI-99 my Dad went through grad school with that was pre-floppy disc and pre-internal HDD; you bought programs on cartridges and saved your work on an audio cassette.  Data being data the audio cassettes when played sounded just like the modems that didn't come out until many years later!

Laptops were a luxury when I was in college. Most of us used a huge ďcomputer skillsĒ room to work on papers and research. And weather wise- we relied on Dave Brownís forecast. And had lots of surprise snows, too.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Beth on November 26, 2018, 10:40:18 AM
Laptops were a luxury when I was in college. Most of us used a huge ďcomputer skillsĒ room to work on papers and research. And weather wise- we relied on Dave Brownís forecast. And had lots of surprise snows, too.
And donít forget about the dial up modems! 😴😴🤪
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Susan on November 26, 2018, 10:59:36 AM
Ha!  My first real job was in the computer department of a manufacturing company.  Large machines in rooms with air-conditioned vented floors.  My entry level position was the Tape Librarian.  Our data was stored on tapes like these.

(http://www.columbia.edu/cu/computinghistory/tapelib.jpg)


Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 26, 2018, 11:15:59 AM
Getting. Back to weather.... lol gfs is starting to cave to the euro on severe weather threat Saturday .. cape looks nill... but this is a example of a cool season. Severe threat driven pretty much by shear values ... wouldnít sleep on this threat ... looks like some super cells embedded in a qlcs type event ... spc already has area sw of us highlighted Friday... wouldnít be suprise to see area ne of that highlighted Saturday ....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on November 26, 2018, 12:56:26 PM
Also back to the weather, I saw my first flurries of the season heading out for a lunch meeting this afternoon.  It was only a few, and seemed right on the line between flurries and little bits of ice, but it was definitely snow  ;D 

 ::whistling:: It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas... ::whistling::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on November 26, 2018, 01:12:01 PM
A dusting of snow here on the northern plateau this morning. My kids thought it was enough to warrant a day out of school. They were disappointed.  >:D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: joemomma on November 26, 2018, 02:12:47 PM
Yep, it was snowing this morning in Cookeville.  A very light dusting on elevated surfaces here in Monterey.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 27, 2018, 06:43:37 AM
Woohoo!  Snowing coming down pretty good here in the foothills this morning.  First flakes of the season.  Snowing hard enough to reduce the visibility.  Surprised at the intensity. 

Post Merge: November 27, 2018, 06:57:34 AM
Checked cameras at home, and a dusting is on the leaves on the ground, and the deck has enough coverage to look white.  Snow still falling here at work. . .

(http://i66.tinypic.com/5e7mnc.jpg)

Temperature has dropped to 29.  Feels and looks like Christmas this morning. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 27, 2018, 06:59:41 AM
Sw Tennessee has now been highlighted severe threat on day 4....by SPC
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 27, 2018, 07:04:32 AM
Looks like a band of snow runs from south Knoxville over to the foothills.  Snow starting to dust the ground here at work, as well. 

(http://i67.tinypic.com/jp8uhw.gif)

The band is nearly stationary--only drifting to the south.  That keeps it going long enough to stick and dust the ground. 

Post Merge: November 27, 2018, 07:23:42 AM
Snow has let up at work, but the band continues to hang tough to the west.  The ground at home has a heavy dusting now--more white than brown.  Rooftops and deck covered with white.  Gotta love the availability and quality of home webcams these days. 

(http://i67.tinypic.com/2i1fmdf.gif)

Everyone in that band is seeing heavy enough snow to stick this morning. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JHart on November 27, 2018, 10:55:46 AM
I saw a few very tiny snowflakes drifting by as I walked to the car this morning... but they might also have been frozen gnats.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Greyhound on November 27, 2018, 11:15:59 AM
Happy Thanksgiving everybody!

Interesting weather this year--especially for the big parade. 

https://fox6now.com/2018/11/22/the-coldest-thanksgiving-in-over-a-century-for-millions-plus-traffic-troubles/ (https://fox6now.com/2018/11/22/the-coldest-thanksgiving-in-over-a-century-for-millions-plus-traffic-troubles/)

I know it's almost a week later, but I can attest to the frigid temps.  Wife and I went to NYC for the Macy's parade.  We got to our "spot" around 6am, and there was a bank time/temp sign behind us saying 21....and another one across the street saying 19.  And the wind.....good lord!!!!...but we learned later it was around 18mph in our area.  Took a few days to fully thaw out, but hey - we ticked an item off the bucket list!!! 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on November 27, 2018, 11:27:06 AM
I saw a few very tiny snowflakes drifting by as I walked to the car this morning... but they might also have been frozen gnats.

Also known as "snats."
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 27, 2018, 11:50:51 AM
Meanwhile, just enough snow in parts of northern KY to cause traffic woes.  This shot is from near the Covington/Cincinnati area.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/vdd4ax.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clay on November 27, 2018, 08:40:55 PM
Meanwhile, just enough snow in parts of northern KY to cause traffic woes.  This shot is from near the Covington/Cincinnati area.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/vdd4ax.jpg)
..and I thought we had too many semis in rush hour traffic.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 28, 2018, 06:43:28 AM
Got down to 21 (so far) this morning.  Coldest morning of meteorological autumn here. 

Ended up with a dusting on rooftops and the deck.  Not much else.  But between the snow yesterday morning and last night, it counts as a trace--the first snowfall.  It occurred early this year for much of Tennessee.  Many in the west, and now the east, saw their first flakes before winter even began. Doesn't happen often this far south, especially in these warm times.   

And did anyone else notice Venus blazing this morning in the east?  Wow, talk about a bright morning star.  It made me think about another star that lit up the night a very long time ago. 

https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/night/usa/sevierville (https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/night/usa/sevierville)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JHart on November 28, 2018, 08:21:19 AM
Some temp thing in lebanon was showing 13. Idk how accurate it is but thats colder then i expected. I thought it was 19 they was calling for. Took forever to defrost my car with just the heater lol
My weather station about 100 feet away from the house recorded a low of 13F.  The thermometer next to the house registered 17F.  Plenty cold either way.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 28, 2018, 08:28:03 AM
I would think temperatures in the lower teens in late November is some record (or near) cold. 

Post Merge: November 28, 2018, 08:51:05 AM
Festive flakes falling at home yesterday evening.  (And a Christmas tree to boot).

  (http://i65.tinypic.com/289x6o4.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on November 28, 2018, 01:55:35 PM
I briefly dipped to 19 then came back up to 21 by sunrise this morning. One of the earliest occurrences of sub 20 degree temps that I can remember. No snow to speak of down here though.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 28, 2018, 05:29:16 PM
Big temperature spread across the state this evening.  Near 50 in the southwest, down to the mid 20's in the northeast.  Already down to 28 here.  That mild air in the west will eventually overspread the state, but it looks like a brief stay just for this weekend. 

Not that I mind it.  The older I get, the more I wish it could snow at 52, instead of 32.  Cold just don't feel as good as it used to.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on November 28, 2018, 10:26:30 PM
Memphis Marathon situation does not look good right now.  There's the severe possibility and then the heat to boot.




Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on November 29, 2018, 06:24:16 AM
Memphis Marathon situation does not look good right now.  There's the severe possibility and then the heat to boot.




Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Yeah- Iím doing the half.

Iím hoping the bulk of it happens overnight Friday night, and itís moving out on Saturday morning with maybe a delayed start at worst.

The forecast indicates itís winding down in the morning.

ďSaturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am, then a chance of showers between 9am and noon. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.Ē

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=35.1498&lon=-90.0492#.W__bKBZMHYU

1-2Ē of rain from storms overnight before that so hoping that has moved out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on November 29, 2018, 07:58:43 AM
Getting some occasional passing sleet showers this morning. A few places on area mountains are reporting slick roads.

Post Merge: November 29, 2018, 08:00:47 AM
Memphis Marathon situation does not look good right now.  There's the severe possibility and then the heat to boot.




Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Thatís definitely a warm race, but not to the point of cancellation. Particularly with the breeze. Iím doing the Disney marathon in orlando in a few weeks and expecting similar conditions with maybe less wind.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2018, 08:30:10 AM
English Mtn. behind my workplace was snow capped yesterday evening.  Really looks spectacular in the Sun.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/5fqiah.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on November 29, 2018, 09:39:47 AM
Still getting light freezing rain at work now in Polk co. The bridges are very slick.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: joemomma on November 29, 2018, 09:50:24 AM
34 and rain when I got to Monterey this morning.  Blah.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on November 29, 2018, 11:32:34 AM
Still getting light freezing rain at work now in Polk co. The bridges are very slick.
Had to close hwy 64. The bridges became impassable. We didnít have any salt trucks nearby since this wasnít in the forecast so it took a while to get them salted.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2018, 12:08:50 PM
Had to close hwy 64. The bridges became impassable. We didnít have any salt trucks nearby since this wasnít in the forecast so it took a while to get them salted.

Hwy 64/74 is not a road I would want to travel when icy!  It's bad enough when just wet. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: EastTNWX on November 29, 2018, 02:27:25 PM
It's still 35 and a steady light rain falling here in Farragut.  It feels like an El Nino winter out there.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BALLPARK on November 29, 2018, 05:03:52 PM
GFS 18Z Showing Fantasy Snow on 12/8.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2018, 05:38:50 PM
35 and rain here.  Hope it's the last time this winter. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2018, 07:13:15 PM
35 and rain here.  Hope it's the last time this winter.

 ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl:: hope all you want, JayCee. Have you not lived in Tennessee long enough?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2018, 10:42:47 AM
Last day of meteorological autumn. 

Bye-bye fall.  Started on a hot note that lasted into part of October, but then the pattern flipped mid month to cool and it's been there ever since (with some "mild" thrown in here and there).  Another "mild" spell coming up this weekend before the cool reasserts itself. 

On to the season everyone here salivates for--winter!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on November 30, 2018, 10:46:27 AM
Last day of meteorological autumn. 

Bye-bye fall.  Started on a hot note that lasted into part of October, but then the pattern flipped mid month to cool and it's been there ever since (with some "mild" thrown in here and there).  Another "mild" spell coming up this weekend before the cool reasserts itself. 

On to the season everyone here salivates for--winter!
salivate?  Better watch it... words...  thundersnow get out his science fiction robot on you... lol
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on November 30, 2018, 12:46:50 PM
7.0 magnitude earthquake hit very close to Anchorage, AK ~ 1 hour ago. Reports of damage are starting to come in and a tsunami warning is also in effect.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on November 30, 2018, 01:10:08 PM
7.0 magnitude earthquake hit very close to Anchorage, AK ~ 1 hour ago. Reports of damage are starting to come in and a tsunami warning is also in effect.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181130/9fcb6424a60cb8d499306cf2df917080.jpg)

Looks bad
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2018, 01:16:57 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181130/9fcb6424a60cb8d499306cf2df917080.jpg)

Looks bad

 ::wow::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 30, 2018, 10:13:47 PM
Big debris signature over Tenkiller Oklahoma. Does not look good.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on December 01, 2018, 06:30:42 AM
Rain and dense fog in the valley this morning; we're back to our discussion from a couple of weeks ago about perfect British weather. 

For all you fellow UT grads on the board it reminds me of a semester in undergrad.  I had an 8:00 AM class in Ayres Hall and at the time there was some guy a couple of times a week who was playing his bagpipes close enough to the building that you could just make out the notes.  There was something about sitting in that old place (it was long before the renovation) on a cool, foggy morning and hearing the music from those pipes come up the hill.  ...yeah, that's it, I'm surrendering and turning on some Scottish music this morning.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2018, 06:50:45 AM
Certainly a British Isle feel here this morning.  Rain is falling and locked in dense fog.  51 at the break of dawn. 

Forecast calls for a 50% chance of showers??  Looking at this morning's radar, I'd say 100% would be a better forecast. 



Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on December 01, 2018, 06:58:29 AM
Man itís nasty out there. Wind driven heavy rain. I can hear things blowing around outside my windows.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2018, 07:30:19 AM
Man itís nasty out there. Wind driven heavy rain. I can hear things blowing around outside my windows.


Typical, interesting east TN weather.  Not even a breeze blowing here, but there's a wind advisory in mountains.  Chattanooga has winds gusting to 30 mph, currently.

If you don't like the weather in east Tennessee, drive 5 miles. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on December 01, 2018, 07:39:59 AM
Start of the Memphis marathon delayed this morning by 45 minutes. That call was made yesterday. It does appear the last of the activity is moving out, although there is a TOR about an hour south in N MS.

Iíll be starting the half in about 50 minutes.

Oh by the way, happy first day of meteorological winter. :)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on December 01, 2018, 09:42:46 AM
Nearly 2Ē of rain since yesterday afternoon. Finished November with almost 9Ē of rain.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2018, 11:27:34 AM
Rain has stopped, fog has lifted, and the sun is peaking out.  Temperatures have soared to near 60 already. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Michael on December 01, 2018, 12:48:22 PM
Euro inched South for next weekend. Still needs to come south some. But, we have a week. Iím now in full model watching mode lol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Eric on December 01, 2018, 12:52:13 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2q9jfoi.png)

 ::coffee::

(h/t @RyanMaue)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on December 01, 2018, 12:53:51 PM
Think we can now retire this thread for fall. Since itís now officially meteorology winter...