Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Curt on August 01, 2018, 10:09:56 AM

Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 01, 2018, 10:09:56 AM
Fire away since its August 1st. What we know very prelim?

1. ENSO: Most forecasts are for a central based weak El Nino. Subject to change to even neutral. Either would favor below normal temps

2. QBO: still highly negative east based. Will prob be trending upwards over the winter but still be negative. What you don't want is a highly positive QBO which isn't likely. This would at least help with normal or below normal temps.

3. Solar- we are nearing a minimum which usually can affect ENSO from warming into a highly positive territory. It could even throw a curve ball into Fall and send us back into Nina territory although modeling does now show this at this time. What you don't want is a strong La Nina OR strong El Nino- which neither are likely for now.

4. PDO- for now looks like a positive PDO which could favor ridging out west and consistent toughing east. we've seen this before (see analogs below).

Early analogs mostly based on ENSO? 2014-15, 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80. Will narrow these down later this Fall.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 01, 2018, 11:41:05 AM
Fire away since its August 1st. What we know very prelim?

1. ENSO: Most forecasts are for a central based weak El Nino. Subject to change to even neutral. Either would favor below normal temps

2. QBO: still highly negative east based. Will prob be trending upwards over the winter but still be negative. What you don't want is a highly positive QBO which isn't likely. This would at least help with normal or below normal temps.

3. Solar- we are nearing a minimum which usually can affect ENSO from warming into a highly positive territory. It could even throw a curve ball into Fall and send us back into Nina territory although modeling does now show this at this time. What you don't want is a highly negative ENSO or strong La Nina OR strong El Nino- which neither are likely for now.

4. PDO- for now looks like a positive PDO which could favor ridging out west and consistent toughing east. we've seen this before (see analogs below).

Early analogs mostly based on ENSO? 2014-15, 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80. Will narrow these down later this Fall.
doubt we see ever another 76 77.... 77 78 type winter ... those two winters pretty historic overall....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2018, 03:40:02 PM
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on August 01, 2018, 04:39:17 PM
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.
The winters of the 70's were great, 85 was right up there too. Hopefully we get some good snows this winter. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 01, 2018, 05:17:40 PM
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.


Born in 97?  You a youngin' alright.  You even missed the good winters of '94 & '96.  At least, they were pretty epic up in southeast KY where I lived at the time.  I'm not sure how TN fared those two years.  I always considered 1996 the last of the "great ones" in my personal list of epic winters.  After '96, most winters were torched to the nines with the exception of '03.  Snow was sparse and bitter Arctic air seemed non-existent.  There was only one memorable snow between 96 and 03 (for me), and it was February 98--a heavy, wet snow that mainly hit the Plateau and southeast KY. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 01, 2018, 07:47:35 PM
Winter is what you make of it. You cant please everyone. Statewide events are rare, I like my lamb medium. This year I will start a contest , who ever gets the first snowfall pictures in TN wins a date with Bruce.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 01, 2018, 09:13:37 PM
Winter is what you make of it. You cant please everyone. Statewide events are rare, I like my lamb medium. This year I will start a contest , who ever gets the first snowfall pictures in TN wins a date with Bruce.
lol... better be a woman than....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2018, 10:00:09 PM

Born in 97?  You a youngin' alright.  You even missed the good winters of '94 & '96.  At least, they were pretty epic up in southeast KY where I lived at the time.  I'm not sure how TN fared those two years.  I always considered 1996 the last of the "great ones" in my personal list of epic winters.  After '96, most winters were torched to the nines with the exception of '03.  Snow was sparse and bitter Arctic air seemed non-existent.  There was only one memorable snow between 96 and 03 (for me), and it was February 98--a heavy, wet snow that mainly hit the Plateau and southeast KY.

I'm the youngest person on the board, possibly by a long shot. I'll be around a while to observe significant climate change. Or maybe I will not notice anything too different. Time will tell.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on August 02, 2018, 09:54:09 PM
For most of TN the greats from 1950 and after are: 1950-51, 1959-60, 1962-63, 1963-64, 1967-68, the late 70's, 1984-85, 1995-96, 2002-03, and 2014-15.

2009-10 and 2010-11 can be considered greats in some areas.   

2010-11 was actually solidly cold and snowy from Thanksgiving to Valentine's Day before all severe weather heck was unleashed from late Feb through the Spring/Early Summer.     


Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 03, 2018, 07:56:04 AM
I consider the winter of 2009-10 the first "decent" winter after 02-03, and from that year on we had some decent to good ones in the area.  At the very least, there was a trend to colder after the long warm spell from 1996 to 2009.  While not every winter was cold from 09 to present day, we've fared far better than the previous 12 years when we couldn't buy an Arctic outbreak, save for 02-03.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2018, 09:47:21 AM
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 03, 2018, 11:19:25 AM
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 03, 2018, 05:28:44 PM
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work
;D

If we have a winter like last one, I might be swearing with you.  Can a moderator moderate himself?    ::pondering::

Actually, I'm getting a bit pumped about this winter.  Curt mentioned many of the puzzle pieces in his post, and if they can come together at the right time (and that's the rub), we might have ourselves some fun times ahead.  Last winter, everything fell into place too late for this far south (cold April). But northern areas, like Michigan, got buried in spring snow.  January was cold, but as is sometimes the case, moisture was limited (except for west TN).

When it comes to winter weather in the mid-south and southern Apps, timing is everything. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 05, 2018, 08:04:26 AM
Chris Bailey from KY had some winter talk in today's post.

http://kyweathercenter.com/ (http://kyweathercenter.com/)

While he can be over the top and "sensational" in his forecasts, the one thing he can do pretty well is sniff out long term patterns.  Here's a quote from the current post. . .

Quote
I promised you guys a little winter talk, so lets do this. Iíve already shared some early thoughts over the past month or twoÖ I like the way the El NiŮo is forecast to setup. The placement in the central Nino region and the weak look to it, both argue for a winter trough across our region. That would be good news to cold and snow lovers.


He's obviously excited about the mean trough some models depict setting up shop in the eastern U.S., and lingering most of the winter.  At the very least, it would argue against any long stretch of well-above normal temperatures like we saw last February that killed our winter. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 05, 2018, 09:29:55 AM
Chris Bailey from KY had some winter talk in today's post.

http://kyweathercenter.com/ (http://kyweathercenter.com/)

While he can be over the top and "sensational" in his forecasts, the one thing he can do pretty well is sniff out long term patterns.  Here's a quote from the current post. . .


He's obviously excited about the mean trough some models depict setting up shop in the eastern U.S., and lingering most of the winter.  At the very least, it would argue against any long stretch of well-above normal temperatures like we saw last February that killed our winter.
yeah... and if s  and but s  were candy and nuts... everyday would be christmas too,,, ::)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on August 05, 2018, 01:38:26 PM
yeah... and if s  and but s  were candy and nuts... everyday would be christmas too,,, ::)
Christmas in July just ended on QVC.  We got plenty of candy, nuts, and Christmas out here. ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 09, 2018, 09:48:08 AM
Snowdog asking about where things might be headed into fall- Here is the latest Euro seasonals at 500mb:


October
(http://i68.tinypic.com/2nu0eox.png)
November
(http://i67.tinypic.com/28tf585.png)
December
(http://i68.tinypic.com/1hqu6h.png)
January
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2qb7mnk.png)
Feb
(http://i66.tinypic.com/o8rr04.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on August 09, 2018, 10:27:44 AM
Snowdog asking about where things might be headed into fall- Here is the latest Euro seasonals at 500mb:

Yeah, that looks nice. When did they start letting Bastardi input into the Euro seasonal model? Lol.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2018, 01:07:32 PM
Yeah, that looks nice. When did they start letting Bastardi input into the Euro seasonal model? Lol.

He'll have a field day with those, for sure. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 09, 2018, 01:51:07 PM
Here is what Weatherbell's Pioneer Model says:
(http://i64.tinypic.com/160a0ld.png)

Here is Bastardi's personal maps:
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2elcxg0.png)
(http://i64.tinypic.com/10xzu2s.png)

His Analogs:
(http://i64.tinypic.com/160d5rp.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2018, 02:17:06 PM
5F below normal for the winter months?  Wow.  That's pretty extreme.  And above normal snowfall centered right over the southeast U.S.  It's nice to dream about such things, anyway . . .
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on August 09, 2018, 02:22:47 PM
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::
b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::
c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2018, 04:25:53 PM
Ole Joe has had some pretty big busts over the last several years.  While he is good at deciphering the pattern based on teleconnection forecasts, sometimes they don't always behave as predicted--like last year when the MJO got stuck in the warm phases right in the heart of winter.  Joe's prediction of the cold coming back fast and furious last February was a major missed forecast, and it was based on the MJO moving into a colder phase.  It did eventually happen, but it was late March and April--too late to help recover our winter in Tennessee.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 09, 2018, 04:40:09 PM
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::

Answer: Tallahassee get 1.67 flakes instead of 1

b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::

Even though the Nashville snow dome has collapsed, Mundie will bring ďnewĒ luck to Bíham which had a record 8 year snow drought not that long ago.


c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::

I-44 FTW

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on August 10, 2018, 10:26:07 AM
Ole Joe has had some pretty big busts over the last several years.  While he is good at deciphering the pattern based on teleconnection forecasts, sometimes they don't always behave as predicted--like last year when the MJO got stuck in the warm phases right in the heart of winter.  Joe's prediction of the cold coming back fast and furious last February was a major missed forecast, and it was based on the MJO moving into a colder phase.  It did eventually happen, but it was late March and April--too late to help recover our winter in Tennessee.

I wonder if that was why a lot of 2006-07 (that is one of his analogs) didn't go as planned with the exception of that 3 week period at the end of January into February.  His other analogs worked like a charm for most if not all of us.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on August 10, 2018, 10:54:52 AM
All I know is the signs are pointing towards a SSW event that will unleash the polar vortex into the Lower 48...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 10, 2018, 12:18:58 PM
Do we ring a bell or something to signal an hour of free drinks for everybody the first time polar vortex makes it into the Winter thread?  ::applause::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on August 10, 2018, 01:42:42 PM
Do we ring a bell or something to signal an hour of free drinks for everybody the first time polar vortex makes it into the Winter thread?  ::applause::

Let's just not start a drinking game for every time it makes it into the thread or we'll all be soused.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2018, 08:32:42 PM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/2n0u91l.jpg)

Bingo is a safe alternative for those that want to play a game and keep their liver healthy. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 12, 2018, 11:51:54 AM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on August 12, 2018, 03:00:46 PM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....
What are your sources? 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on August 12, 2018, 03:08:07 PM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....

It is waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to be getting that specific.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on August 13, 2018, 07:40:35 AM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....

Can I get next week's powerball numbers? 

WTF....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 13, 2018, 08:50:59 AM
Can I get next week's powerball numbers? 

WTF....
its getting into end August now.... winter signs are starting to fall in place ... slowly but surely .... if have had power ball winning numbers I sure as heck wouldnít be spending time here ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 13, 2018, 09:55:31 AM
Idk about this winter but winter 2025 wow.. Just wait.
by 2025....  global warming will completely have its grip on us ... winter be season in the past .... :D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on August 13, 2018, 03:02:41 PM
Dang
Winter canceled already?
Thank goodness spring severe season is going to be a blockbuster!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 13, 2018, 03:39:38 PM
I look at winter in Tennessee as being a bit like hurricane season; a calm season with one big storm is remembered as a busy season while a season with lots of small stuff but no big hitters is easily forgotten.  From what others have been posting it looks like we'll at least have some cold, which has been missing in most recent winters, so half the equation is set up.  Beyond that it's the usual roll of the dice for whether or not the cold, the wet, and the track all come together to put good snow on the ground, especially here in the valley.  Besides, before then I'm hoping for a great fall with good color on the trees, crisp air, and SEC football.
...and just to keep our new moderators on their toes @*%#$#!! politics %%*@%*!( Washington D.C @#%%*)) taxes @%#*&!## your party @#*%(@@! my party   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 13, 2018, 03:43:54 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 13, 2018, 04:40:12 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.
True and true.  It's a shame Knox County's new mayor doesn't have any eligibility left; we could use him playing line on Saturdays.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 13, 2018, 05:11:54 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.


No worries.  It means you'll have all the time you need to geek out over each and every model run.     ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 19, 2018, 01:45:46 AM
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::
b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::
c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::
Imma rooting for it to lol


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 19, 2018, 08:24:02 AM
Imma rooting for it to lol


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We donít have to root for it. We just wait for it.  >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 19, 2018, 03:02:29 PM
I had a dream of a 6 inch sleet fest


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on August 19, 2018, 08:00:19 PM
**** if they are going to predict so am I... After all I nailed it last year  ::evillaugh::

Jan 4th will be the first majority of the state event. Sleet Fest 2019!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 21, 2018, 07:52:11 PM
I predict four "cliff diving" emojis will be typed on January 15th, 2019 after a major league bust. You heard it here first.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 22, 2018, 10:41:36 PM
I predict four "cliff diving" emojis will be typed on January 15th, 2019 after a major league bust. You heard it here first.

Seems legit to me.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on August 24, 2018, 01:05:57 PM
The big one will eventually happen.  Let hope this winter is it!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 24, 2018, 01:28:37 PM
Snow in Tennessee is nothing like sex.

Anyone is impressed by four inches. >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 24, 2018, 01:29:54 PM
Snow in Tennessee is nothing like sex.

Anyone is impressed by four inches. >:D

No comment. I will save that for chat lol


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on August 25, 2018, 06:20:22 PM
The SNOWMAN says get ready for  ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::!!!! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: Fear the NW Trend!!!! LOL!!!!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 25, 2018, 06:23:41 PM
The SNOWMAN says get ready for  ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::!!!! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: Fear the NW Trend!!!! LOL!!!!

Iím ready, but things wonít be complete until Mr Wonderful is on board


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on September 21, 2018, 11:06:09 AM
A few more pieces of the puzzle for winter...

- ENSO: Weak El Nino or neutral positive with warmest water in the central pacific vs eastern which is called Modoki

- PDO: most likely going to be positive

-QBO: negative and from the east but weakening in late winter. Leads to a more blocky pattern

-Solar: reaching min over the next year if not now

All of these argue for some if not more than not below normal temps and increased winter precip chances at some point.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on September 22, 2018, 06:36:05 AM
and I've not been accidently walking through webs every morning, which is usually the case each fall.  ::pondering::

Come to Gallatin. I almost run into one on the daily. I think the spiders do it on purpose for the kicks and giggles.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2018, 06:38:59 AM
Growing up, I heard my grandmother mention several times that the higher the spiders build their webs, the worse the winter will be.  Like most folklore, I don't know if there's anything to that, but I'm seeing spiders build their webs higher than I've ever seen them before.  They are hanging 20-30 feet off the ground between huge trees.  It's pretty creepy looking up to see a huge spider suspended against the blue sky above.  Makes the woods around the house feel like a movie set for a Halloween horror flick.  Anyway, I've never observed that since moving here, and I've not been accidently walking through webs every morning, which is usually the case each fall.   

(Whoops...accidently deleted while trying to add a post).   ::coffee::


Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:41:44 AM
Pulled this from Chris Bailey's site. . .Early October looks cool.

http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364 (http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364)

Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:44:11 AM
Come to Gallatin. I almost run into one on the daily. I think the spiders do it on purpose for the kicks and giggles.


It's the worse--because you don't know if the spider is crawling on your body somewhere. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on September 22, 2018, 09:10:01 AM
Growing up, I heard my grandmother mention several times that the higher the spiders build their webs, the worse the winter will be.  Like most folklore, I don't know if there's anything to that, but I'm seeing spiders build their webs higher than I've ever seen them before.  They are hanging 20-30 feet off the ground between huge trees.  It's pretty creepy looking up to see a huge spider suspended against the blue sky above.  Makes the woods around the house feel like a movie set for a Halloween horror flick.  Anyway, I've never observed that since moving here, and I've not been accidently walking through webs every morning, which is usually the case each fall.   

(Whoops...accidently deleted while trying to add a post).   ::coffee::


Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:41:44 AM
Pulled this from Chris Bailey's site. . .Early October looks cool.

http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364 (http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364)

Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:44:11 AM

It's the worse--because you don't know if the spider is crawling on your body somewhere.
proably building them higher to prepare for the floods thatís coming later ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2018, 02:31:05 PM
proably building them higher to prepare for the floods thatís coming later ... lol

Could be....or the snowdrifts.   ::evillaugh::

(https://asd.gsfc.nasa.gov/archive/tiger/images/eric_drift.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on September 22, 2018, 03:37:44 PM
Models agree on first U.S. winter storm of the season to hit MT, ND, & MN on Oct. 1.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on September 22, 2018, 03:44:18 PM
Models agree on first U.S. winter storm of the season to hit MT, ND, & MN on Oct. 1.

Winter Storm A-Aron
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on September 22, 2018, 04:56:43 PM
It is probably too early but I won't have a lot of free time in Oct-early December so I will go ahead and post my thoughts and way too early prediction for the winter now.

The major factors will be:

- Weak to Moderate West-Based aka Modoki El-Nino.  I am thinking similar in the strength to 2006-07 but unlike 2006-07 this will likely be a Central Pacific type of El-Nino.  These tend to be better for us in the Eastern USA.

+ PDO which tends to lead to riding in the Western USA

The QBO trend that Curt described

- An active subtropical jet which we have seen already.  San Antonio now has their wettest September on record.   

The pattern we will start to head into in the coming weeks is likely a sign of what is to come for much of the winter.  There will be relaxation periods just like we had in 2009-10 and 2014-15 but I have reason to believe we are in for a very solid winter for the Southern and Northeastern USA. 

Color Map:
Orange: Above Normal +1 to +3 temperature departure
Red: Much Above Normal Greater than +3

Blue: Below Normal -1 to -3 temperature departure
Dark Blue: Much Below Greater than -3


(http://i63.tinypic.com/igkvi1.png)

I will go with climatology and say that late-November and December will be a relaxation between a colder than normal October-early November and what follows.  As long as we avoid a strongly +NAO or +AO then I will think that our area will finish close to average temperature wise and may find a way to at least sneak in a winter event.

Chattanogga: +1.0
Memphis: +0.8
Nashville: +1.0
Tri-Cities: +1.5 

 (http://i67.tinypic.com/345ip8k.png)

I think here is where the +PDO and favorable Pacific conditions will overall lead to paydirt. With potential blocking in the Northwest and SE Canada and into Greenland that will allow for winter air to pour into our area and linger starting in January. The teardrop shape is due to the potential for the ridges to intrude at times in the Northern Plains.  An active subtropical jet should also help temperatures down quite a bit in the southern USA by way of precipitation and cloudcover.

Chattanogga: -3.1
Memphis: -3.0
Nashville: -2.5
Tri-Cities: -2.5

(http://i67.tinypic.com/16k9w5l.png)

Another day and another cold February prediction.  I thankfully didn't predict a cold one on 2017, but the 2018 and 2016 calls were major busts.  Our last two Modoki El-Nino's (2010 and 2015) were solidly below average in the temperature category.  As long as the Pacific cooperates we may not even need a -NAO/AO as a strong +PNA may help in assuming a Warm to Hot West and Cold East pattern.  Will this one bust or will this one verify as 2010 and 2015 did?  We will have to wait and see.  I do think there is a strong potential for at least a Top 10 Warmest February on record in the Pacific Northwest. 

Chattanogga: -5.0
Memphis: -3.5
Nashville: -4.0
Tri-Cities: -4.5

Precipitation:

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2pr7o86.png)

Typically in weaker El-Nino events the subtropcial jet is suppressed a bit further south.  With the potential of some potent cold air masses I will agree with that decision and go with a drier than normal winter for our area.  Remember that if much of our precip is snow we will likely up drier than normal as 1 inch of snow comes to only 0.10 of an inch of rain and it could be as low as 15:1 or even 20:1 in really cold airmasses. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on September 22, 2018, 05:43:33 PM
StormNine, thanks for posting your thoughts for this upcoming Winter... but I'm curious, you have Memphis at +3.0 for January temps. Would that be a typo?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on September 22, 2018, 07:40:57 PM
StormNine, thanks for posting your thoughts for this upcoming Winter... but I'm curious, you have Memphis at +3.0 for January temps. Would that be a typo?

It should be a -3.0 and not a +. Those little typos get me all the time. 

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on September 25, 2018, 08:42:44 PM
The Sun set at the North Pole yesterday, and won't rise again until spring.  Twilight will continue to deepen into the long, dark night of winter. 

http://www.athropolis.com/sun-fr.htm (http://www.athropolis.com/sun-fr.htm)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 14, 2018, 01:08:30 PM
Getting nearer to more accurate forecasting tools for winter

Euro seasonal mean of 51 members for December to February

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/dab2b3fad0ced903cf6dc48dae1ee0d2.jpg)

JMA for same period
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/09cd4df83179dc02ebb72763835714a1.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 14, 2018, 01:48:09 PM
Getting nearer to more accurate forecasting tools for winter

Euro seasonal mean of 51 members for December to February

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/dab2b3fad0ced903cf6dc48dae1ee0d2.jpg)

JMA for same period
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/09cd4df83179dc02ebb72763835714a1.jpg)

Lookin' good in our neighborhood. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 14, 2018, 01:49:29 PM
Getting nearer to more accurate forecasting tools for winter

Euro seasonal mean of 51 members for December to February

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/dab2b3fad0ced903cf6dc48dae1ee0d2.jpg)

JMA for same period
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/09cd4df83179dc02ebb72763835714a1.jpg)
and with much of canada showing above normal temps...perhaps that will keep out pattern from being supressed  ... which is a good thing...could be lot ice this winter for our area ::doh::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 14, 2018, 02:43:55 PM
and with much of canada showing above normal temps...perhaps that will keep out pattern from being supressed  ... which is a good thing...could be lot ice this winter for our area ::doh::

Actually thatís the pattern at 500mb not temps.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 14, 2018, 08:00:42 PM
One thing to stress about forecasts that may be seen is that if we have a solidly colder than normal winter than we will have a greater than normal chance for below average precipitation.  Remember that snow on average has only 1/10th the water content as rain, so if a good deal of our winter precipitation falls as snow than we will likely be below average precipitation-wise (see 1963-64 and 2009-10). 

I want to say that because a lot of people see below average precipitation and temperatures and assume suppression city. 

Post Merge: October 14, 2018, 08:14:20 PM
One thing I have noticed from the long-range models is that they aren't showing much of a warm-up in November-December and typically that timeframe leans warmer than average for the Southeastern USA in El-Nino years.  That will be an interesting thing to watch over the coming weeks.  It is quite rare to go below average in all three winter months especially post 2000.  With that in mind and this current cool-cold wave for this time of year it would make sense to have a period of warmth during that time.  The good thing is if we have our warm period in November-Early December then we potentially time our next cold shot for the Holidays and into the heart of the winter.   

We shall see.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 14, 2018, 08:40:47 PM
One thing to stress about forecasts that may be seen is that if we have a solidly colder than normal winter than we will have a greater than normal chance for below average precipitation.  Remember that snow on average has only 1/10th the water content as rain, so if a good deal of our winter precipitation falls as snow than we will likely be below average precipitation-wise (see 1963-64 and 2009-10). 

I want to say that because a lot of people see below average precipitation and temperatures and assume suppression city. 

Post Merge: October 14, 2018, 08:14:20 PM
One thing I have noticed from the long-range models is that they aren't showing much of a warm-up in November-December and typically that timeframe leans warmer than average for the Southeastern USA in El-Nino years.  That will be an interesting thing to watch over the coming weeks.  It is quite rare to go below average in all three winter months especially post 2000.  With that in mind and this current cool-cold wave for this time of year it would make sense to have a period of warmth during that time.  The good thing is if we have our warm period in November-Early December then we potentially time our next cold shot for the Holidays and into the heart of the winter.   

We shall see.
yeah but also ... El NiŮoís favor a active southern storm track... we shall see
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on October 14, 2018, 09:00:31 PM
At least in Chattanooga, presence of gulf moisture has a much stronger positive correlation with above average snowfall than cold temperatures. We've had a lot of good winters with marginally cold (or even above normal) temps when systems are able to tap the gulf. If we get cut off from the gulf (suppression) we get nada (see last winter). It is basically impossible for clippers or NW flow snow to fall here due to topography. Feels like we are overdue. I haven't seen more than a half inch on the ground here since 2015.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 14, 2018, 10:46:26 PM
Knoxville can get lucky with those clippers during colder than normal winters. Chattanooga doesn't have the advantage that NE TN and the Plateau has with those weak clippers. I think that's another reason why Chattanooga didn't cash in on anything last year. The main culprit for the paltry amount of snowfall in Chattanooga was a very strong trough which sent everything south early on, followed by an abrupt pattern change in which it would either be rainy and 50-60 or sunny and 35, with any sort of activity during cold weeks going north.

We can still strike those blockbuster storms during warm years. 2015-2016 was warm as crap (though most of that was due to the epically warm El NiŮo-induced December torchfest) but Middle TN cashed in on Jonas.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 07:51:44 AM
This is the current 8-14 day outlook.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/167a80l.gif)

I only post this pic because the upcoming winter may look a lot like this.  Tennessee could be in the transition zone between wet and dry.  Timing is everything in this pattern, and many times before a dry northwest flow sets up, a strong storm system will ride up from the Gulf into the northeast.  That's when we tend to get our significant snows--in a pattern transition to a deep Eastern trough.  Once the deep trough is in place, we're dependent on clippers tapping enough of the Gulf to drop a few inches here and there.  The plateau and mountains do well in a northwest flow, but the lower elevations need a decent disturbance to generate enough lift to get more than a dusting--especially areas like Chattanooga.

Anyway, let's hope Tennessee is in a sweet spot this year--the battle zone between a cold, dry north and a milder, but wet, Deep South.  Everything points to a better winter than the last two, but we know how that goes sometimes. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 08:17:39 AM
We use to have some decent clippers years ago west tn... but they seem to be less and less each passing winter .... not to big on clippers ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2018, 08:51:07 AM
Getting nearer to more accurate forecasting tools for winter

Euro seasonal mean of 51 members for December to February

That's it, I'm going on Amazon right now and buying a new sled.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 09:02:22 AM
That's it, I'm going on Amazon right now and buying a new sled.  ::snowman::
just jinxed it ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2018, 09:18:00 AM
just jinxed it ... lol

There are no jinx's for this winter, it's in the bag. It will be in the Top 15 for total snowfall.

Disclaimer: I know nothing and this is mostly sarcasm.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 09:22:13 AM
There are no jinx's for this winter, it's in the bag. It will be in the Top 15 for total snowfall.

Disclaimer: I know nothing and this is mostly sarcasm.
i take just half of what 84 85 gave me ... I be happy
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on October 15, 2018, 09:30:24 AM
There are no jinx's for this winter, it's in the bag. It will be in the Top 15 for total snowfall.

Disclaimer: I know nothing and this is mostly sarcasm.

It's so bad, we mock winter with our deliberate and obvious jinx attempts. By telling winter it will produce, obviously knowing we're jinxing it, winter will call our bluff and we'll get slammed, purely out of spite. We'll get dumped on this winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on October 15, 2018, 10:46:09 AM
Personally Iím preparing for a lot of 33* cold rains. Also, letís keep this in mind...we are long overdue for a major ice event. Iím thinking this is the year for that.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on October 15, 2018, 11:10:08 AM
and with much of canada showing above normal temps...perhaps that will keep out pattern from being supressed  ... which is a good thing...could be lot ice this winter for our area ::doh::

Bruce, with all due respect, when was the last winter you didn't predict a lot of ice for our area?  ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 15, 2018, 11:23:15 AM
I'm prepared for some of you to reminisce in the Great Winter of 1984-85 and make comparisons to it by saying "x" weather event in October is how January 1985's pattern all got started... 

::lookaround::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 11:27:29 AM
Bruce, with all due respect, when was the last winter you didn't predict a lot of ice for our area?  ;D
been while think actually Crockett .... just thinking weíre going see more times than not.  The deeper article air struggle to come further down... we are certainly over due for a humdinger of a ice storm

Post Merge: October 15, 2018, 12:07:45 PM
I'm prepared for some of you to reminisce in the Great Winter of 1984-85 and make comparisons to it by saying "x" weather event in October is how January 1985's pattern all got started... 

::lookaround::
the very start of it was a complete torch. With temps breaking records that still hold for December ...than a big system came newyears eve nite  brought severe weather ... 4 days later 10 inches snow ... pattern locked in
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 15, 2018, 12:51:42 PM
Bruce, with all due respect, when was the last winter you didn't predict a lot of ice for our area?  ;D

Like I always say- shoot in the dark and youíre bound to hit something eventually
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on October 15, 2018, 12:56:00 PM
I'm prepared for some of you to reminisce in the Great Winter of 1984-85 and make comparisons to it by saying "x" weather event in October is how January 1985's pattern all got started... 

::lookaround::

84-85 was an awesome winter even for the Mississippi Delta when I lived there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on October 15, 2018, 12:57:25 PM
Like I always say- shoot in the dark and youíre bound to hit something eventually

A broken clock has better odds lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 01:08:46 PM
84-85 is the benchmark for winter weather for our area for those old enough to have experienced that winter.  If it wasn't for 84-85, we might think last year was a good winter.  So, it's a blessing and a curse.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 15, 2018, 01:15:04 PM
84-85 was a weak to mod LaNina so itís not an analog.

Ukmet looks cold and stormy for this winter from its release today. American models CFS is a blowtorch.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 01:16:38 PM
84-85 was a weak to mod LaNina so itís not an analog.

Ukmet looks cold and stormy for this winter from its release today. American models CFS is a blowtorch.
yeah. Nina. Knew. But itís one my favorite winters ....  so it sets the bar for me on a great winter here...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 01:23:32 PM
84-85 was a weak to mod LaNina so itís not an analog.

Ukmet looks cold and stormy for this winter from its release today. American models CFS is a blowtorch.

At least it's only the American models calling for a torch.  I may be a red-blooded American, but I'll pull for the UK on this one.  Or the Euro, or the Japanese.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2018, 03:09:00 PM
Personally Iím preparing for a lot of 33* cold rains. Also, letís keep this in mind...we are long overdue for a major ice event. Iím thinking this is the year for that.

33 and rain? Heck, try 27 and rain. I'll never get over that storm. 27 degrees and pouring rain for what felt like hours.  ::sick::

Post Merge: October 15, 2018, 03:11:05 PM
It's so bad, we mock winter with our deliberate and obvious jinx attempts. By telling winter it will produce, obviously knowing we're jinxing it, winter will call our bluff and we'll get slammed, purely out of spite. We'll get dumped on this winter.

The Old Man Winter will do what he wants, we have no say in it, so we might as well have a little fun with it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 15, 2018, 11:56:14 PM
76-77,77-78 and 84-85 were awesome here. I don't know which was worse. We missed the entire month of school in Jan 77 and snow covered the ground from the 4th of Jan until the first of Feb. The roads were also covered as big time cold and another snow every 4-5 days the entire month was like clockwork. We had anywhere from 5-10 inches of snow on the ground virtually the entire month. 77-78 was more spread out but we had several big snows and missed a bunch of days. Including 2 different snows that put us out a week at a time plus at least 2 more snows where we missed a couple of days each time. 84-85 I was out of school, I was about 20 years old and the end of jan and feb were brutal. We recorded snow and brutal cold the month of feb. One 8 inch snowfall followed by extreme cold and more snow. I think Jan 77 and Feb 85 was the most epic I have seen, hard to say which was worse. I would take anything similar and do cartwheels. That 1 week last year reminded me of that time it just didn't last near as long nor have the number of snows. But at least we had 2 decent snows in a weeks time that stayed on the ground for about 7 days. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 16, 2018, 12:39:20 PM
Siberia may not be getting a lot of snow, but North America is. . .

http://www.msn.com/en-us/video/tunedin/snow-is-covering-more-of-north-america-than-usual-for-october/vi-BBOqcRM?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/video/tunedin/snow-is-covering-more-of-north-america-than-usual-for-october/vi-BBOqcRM?ocid=ientp)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 16, 2018, 06:24:45 PM
In Southern KY the most epic winters were the late 70s, 84-85, 2010-11, and 2014-15. 

2014-15 was very close to being epic in much of TN and it was in the Tiptonville/Union City area into Kentucky.  It isn't that common to see two major winter storms producing 1 foot or more of snow in one winter, plus that February and Early March was quite cold.  Some areas along US 62 in Kentucky recorded over 40 inches of snow during the winter of 2014-15. 

That 6-week span of 1984-85 would of be awesome to live in.  I was born just a few years late.  That was some of the most intense cold/snow looking back at the records that a winter can offer. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 16, 2018, 08:01:25 PM
I can imagine myself sitting in a reclining chair in 2074 and telling my grandkids how much it used to snow during the magnificent winters of the 2000s and 2010s.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 16, 2018, 08:42:41 PM
I can imagine myself sitting in a reclining chair in 2074 and telling my grandkids how much it used to snow during the magnificent winters of the 2000s and 2010s.  ::rofl::
by the year 2074... i will be a old man.... lets  not rush time  ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 17, 2018, 06:51:39 AM
In Southern KY the most epic winters were the late 70s, 84-85, 2010-11, and 2014-15. 

2014-15 was very close to being epic in much of TN and it was in the Tiptonville/Union City area into Kentucky.  It isn't that common to see two major winter storms producing 1 foot or more of snow in one winter, plus that February and Early March was quite cold.  Some areas along US 62 in Kentucky recorded over 40 inches of snow during the winter of 2014-15. 

That 6-week span of 1984-85 would of be awesome to live in.  I was born just a few years late.  That was some of the most intense cold/snow looking back at the records that a winter can offer.

In southeast KY the winters of 1993-94 & 95-96 were somewhat similar to 84-85.  Perhaps Mt. Pinatubo had an influence on the bitter cold winter of 93-94.  London Ky. recorded their all-time record low up to that point (I believe it was -26).  A snow of epic proportions in January buried the central and eastern parts with 12-24" of snow, and Interstate 75 was closed from Covington to the Tennessee border.  The Arctic outbreak that followed kept the snow on the ground for weeks.  1995-96 was also a winter with plenty of snow, sometimes on the ground for nearly a week at a time when another snowfall would add even more accumulation.  I remember piles of snow in parking lots lasting weeks because warm spells were infrequent, and snow kept falling.  After 95-96, winters were blowtorch city until 02-03, when we had a marginally cold winter, but snowfall wasn't excessive.  From that point on, we had to wait until '09-'10 to see a winter that even had a decent stretch of below normal temperatures.

At least that's how I remember it, as I sit in my rocking chair reminiscing with my Red Bull.  (That's how we Gen X'ers chill out).
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 17, 2018, 07:17:46 AM
In Southern KY the most epic winters were the late 70s, 84-85, 2010-11, and 2014-15. 

2014-15 was very close to being epic in much of TN and it was in the Tiptonville/Union City area into Kentucky.  It isn't that common to see two major winter storms producing 1 foot or more of snow in one winter, plus that February and Early March was quite cold.  Some areas along US 62 in Kentucky recorded over 40 inches of snow during the winter of 2014-15. 

That 6-week span of 1984-85 would of be awesome to live in.  I was born just a few years late.  That was some of the most intense cold/snow looking back at the records that a winter can offer.
dont forget bout the big December 2004 Snow storm... people were stranded in cars along major hwys.... that was the system that brought me. Close to 5 inches of pure sleet... hardest I ever seen sleet fall with brisk winds to boot ... sting your face....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 17, 2018, 02:37:12 PM
by the year 2074... i will be a old man.... lets  not rush time  ;)

I'll be 94, so the weather will probably be happening about 6 feet above me.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 17, 2018, 03:34:56 PM
I'll be 94, so the weather will probably be happening about 6 feet above me.
try 112 for me lol....
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on October 17, 2018, 03:56:13 PM
by the year 2074... i will be a old man.... lets  not rush time 

Iím sure we will be kinda dead lol. I would be 108. If I was lucky enough to make it that long, I would be drooling in my soup.
Wait sometimes I do that now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on October 17, 2018, 04:12:07 PM
Iím sure we will be kinda dead lol. I would be 108. If I was lucky enough to make it that long, I would be drooling in my soup.
Wait sometimes I do that now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You young'uns beat all... I'll be 111.  LOL
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2018, 08:42:46 AM
Snow cover continues to run above normal in Canada, and LR models show it deepening further, especially central/eastern areas.  Can't be a bad thing for winter weather weenies.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on October 18, 2018, 09:23:44 PM
Snow here is nothing but luck. I thought we were past this..... Cold Winter, Warm Winter, Dry Winter, Wet Winter, it all averages out about the same. Forecast 3-4 days out not 3-4 months :) Climatology wins
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 19, 2018, 07:25:57 AM
Snow here is nothing but luck. I thought we were past this..... Cold Winter, Warm Winter, Dry Winter, Wet Winter, it all averages out about the same. Forecast 3-4 days out not 3-4 months :) Climatology wins

At least we have a better chance of seeing snow than winning either jackpot from Mega Millions or Powerball.   ::snow:: 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 19, 2018, 07:51:11 AM
At least we have a better chance of seeing snow than winning either jackpot from Mega Millions or Powerball.   ::snow::
yeah, and the climate change dont stop or slow down...odds of winning the owerball will become better... :D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 19, 2018, 06:15:27 PM
NOAA is out with their forecast which is mostly for average temperatures and precipitation for our neck of the woods and above average precipitation along and south of I-20 and along and east of I-81. 

They are suggesting some blowtorching going on in the Northern US into Canada and across the Plains and the Western US. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 20, 2018, 11:10:20 AM
It will be interesting to see how November unfolds.  About every cold winter we've had in recent memory has had a cold November. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 20, 2018, 01:53:11 PM
It will be interesting to see how November unfolds.  About every cold winter we've had in recent memory has had a cold November.

With our analogs for the upcoming year, there is no strong signal either way for November.  Some were cool to cold and others like 1965 and 2009 were torchy.

Usually, the stronger signal for weak to moderate modoki E-Nino's is for a warmer than normal December and a colder than normal Late-January and February.   

Post Merge: October 20, 2018, 02:05:20 PM
The best analogs for this upcoming winter are:
1957-58
1963-64
1965-66
1968-69
1986-87
2002-03
2006-07
2009-10 

These are weak to moderate west-based aka modoki El-Nino events (2006-07 was a bit more central based versus west-based)  that came after either a cold neutral or la-nina event. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 21, 2018, 07:27:52 AM

Usually, the stronger signal for weak to moderate modoki E-Nino's is for a warmer than normal December and a colder than normal Late-January and February.   

Post Merge: October 20, 2018, 02:05:20 PM
The best analogs for this upcoming winter are:
1957-58
1963-64
1965-66
1968-69
1986-87
2002-03
2006-07
2009-10 

These are weak to moderate west-based aka modoki El-Nino events (2006-07 was a bit more central based versus west-based)  that came after either a cold neutral or la-nina event.

Not liking that 06-07.  I just remember a drought developing that lasted well into 07.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on October 21, 2018, 07:40:24 AM
Thermometer next to the house read 32.2F at 7:00 AM while the remote thermometer about 100 feet away read 29F.  There was a decent frost, considering the warm ground.  Welcome, Fall!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 21, 2018, 08:44:05 AM
We've gotten some good snows out of 2002-03 and 2009-10.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 21, 2018, 04:51:13 PM
yeah, and the climate change dont stop or slow down...odds of winning the owerball will become better... :D

History would suggest climate changing is the norm, so I doubt it's going to stop.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 21, 2018, 06:20:43 PM
With the talk of a Moderate possibility Moderate-Borderline Strong El-Nino this year it should be noted that we can go fairly strong on El-Nino's and still have a solid winter, we just can't go to the super level like 97-98 or 2015-16.   

1957-58, 1965-66, 2002-03, and 2009-10 were all on the Moderate-Strong cusp (around +1.3C to +1.6C) and I would be happy with each of those winters. There isn't anything that suggests that we will rush past +1.5C this winter. As far as strength goes as long as we are not hitting at or around the 2.0C or greater range then we are okay. 

One thing that I could see develop with a Moderate or Moderate to Borderline Strong El-Nino is the possibility of a severe weather/tornado threat sometime in December.  1957, 1987, and 2002 all had a severe threat somewhere around or just to the west of our area.  It wouldn't be too surprising to see of these especially with any pattern changing system that could take us to a colder pattern later on. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 21, 2018, 07:08:58 PM
With the talk of a Moderate possibility Moderate-Borderline Strong El-Nino this year it should be noted that we can go fairly strong on El-Nino's and still have a solid winter, we just can't go to the super level like 97-98 or 2015-16.   

1957-58, 1965-66, 2002-03, and 2009-10 were all on the Moderate-Strong cusp (around +1.3C to +1.6C) and I would be happy with each of those winters. There isn't anything that suggests that we will rush past +1.5C this winter. As far as strength goes as long as we are not hitting at or around the 2.0C or greater range then we are okay. 

One thing that I could see develop with a Moderate or Moderate to Borderline Strong El-Nino is the possibility of a severe weather/tornado threat sometime in December.  1957, 1987, and 2002 all had a severe threat somewhere around or just to the west of our area.  It wouldn't be too surprising to see of these especially with any pattern changing system that could take us to a colder pattern later on.
did I hear the word tornado threat... dear god Someone pinch me... I must be dreaming ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 22, 2018, 07:00:19 PM
Hackuweather winter forecast.

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-2019-us-winter-forecast-storms-to-target-mid-atlantic-snow-and-ice-to-strike-the-southern-plains/70006208

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 23, 2018, 08:12:00 AM
Judah Cohen.  Calling for a mild winter for us overall... his one better winter experts out there ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 23, 2018, 08:20:22 AM
Judah has some good theories, but he's missed the last two winters, overall.  His "snowy Siberia (in October) = a cold & snowy eastern U.S." hypothesis didn't do so well, and I think he is still learning (like the rest of us) that a strong -AO doesn't always mean it gets cold and stormy here. 
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 23, 2018, 10:52:26 AM
Judah Cohen.  Calling for a mild winter for us overall... his one better winter experts out there ...


https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

His model is generated with heavy weight in early season snowcover in Eurasia in association with a negative AO being predominant. He even indicates there are weakness in his theory ie last 2 winters had high early season snowcover and ended up as well know- not well below normal temps overall. He actually is skeptical of his model this year since El NiŮo is central based vs eastern based- which he says may change the way he ultimately weighs this winter. Itís a good read and much more in depth than just saying ďpredicting a mild winterĒ.

Edit- here is Judah Cohenís conclusion in his winter model forecast.

ďIn conclusion, the relatively slow advance of Eurasian snow cover, the current lack of high latitude blocking and a general El NiŮo favor overall relatively mild winter temperatures for the Eastern US.  However I do see high bust potential for this forecast.  Central Pacific rather than an Eastern Pacific El NiŮo may favor a colder winter than represented in the model.  Elevated North Pacific SSTs may contribute to a cold Eastern US.  In addition future sea ice anomalies and high latitude blocking may eventually contribute to a cold winter.  Also snow cover has been relatively extensive this fall across Canada.  If this were to persist, it could contribute to cold temperatures in the Eastern US.  None of these factors are properly represented in the model and could be dominant on the winter atmospheric circulation in particular across North America, more so than low October Siberian snow cover extent.Ē
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 23, 2018, 04:29:42 PM
Mr. Cohen has taken a bit of a fall from grace the last few years. He was all the talk a few years ago, then disaster.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 23, 2018, 04:55:41 PM
Mr. Cohen has taken a bit of a fall from grace the last few years. He was all the talk a few years ago, then disaster.

I mean how do you explain ďhereís my model and it has a high bust potentialĒ. Maybe you need a new model?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 23, 2018, 05:11:01 PM
In the 80's, El Nino was the end all when it came to predicting winter weather.  El Nino guaranteed warm weather.  Then we learned there are different types of El Ninos.  Then it was the NAO/AO.  If they go negative, harsh winter weather is guaranteed.  Then we learned there is an east based NAO, and a west based NAO.  Then it was sudden stratospheric warming.  Then it was snow in Siberia.  Who knows what the next thing will be, but the lesson to be learned is we never stop learning. The more we learn, the more we realize we don't know. 

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 25, 2018, 08:15:29 AM
I mean how do you explain ďhereís my model and it has a high bust potentialĒ. Maybe you need a new model?

Lol, you can't explain it. His theory is just that, an unconfirmed theory.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on October 25, 2018, 08:37:22 AM
his one better winter experts out there ...

(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/005/124/hC3AE2E25.jpeg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on October 26, 2018, 06:26:38 AM
In the 80's, El Nino was the end all when it came to predicting winter weather.  El Nino guaranteed warm weather.  Then we learned there are different types of El Ninos.  Then it was the NAO/AO.  If they go negative, harsh winter weather is guaranteed.  Then we learned there is an east based NAO, and a west based NAO.  Then it was sudden stratospheric warming.  Then it was snow in Siberia.  Who knows what the next thing will be, but the lesson to be learned is we never stop learning. The more we learn, the more we realize we don't know.

Yes some forecasters just broad brush El NiŮo. Oh it means a warmer than average winter. Each one is different and a lot of factors play into the reality of what will happen.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on October 26, 2018, 09:41:46 AM
Yes some forecasters just broad brush El NiŮo. Oh it means a warmer than average winter. Each one is different and a lot of factors play into the reality of what will happen.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Let's leave the CPC out of this.  >:D >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 26, 2018, 01:48:46 PM
I like our probability of a wetter than average winter. I will take the wet weather over the unusually cold and dry December we had last year.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 26, 2018, 03:53:15 PM
Right now I would say I think Jan-Feb is our best shot at major winter weather events. Not much of a prediction here, just don't see November bringing much, it rarely does. December can bring the goods but more times than not it doesn't. Hopefully we can cash in on a few major winter storms. Maybe Jan and Feb will produce. No matter what looking forward to winter, would love for it to be a active one. It's fun following even when we barely miss if it's a active winter, especially if we have a few hits along the way. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on October 26, 2018, 10:12:17 PM
Winter here is a coin toss, the entire way through. Any given year imo is as good as another here. The season as a whole never makes Winter here, its the random event that does. Ill chase and get interested when it shows up on the global models. Climate wins every time
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 26, 2018, 10:56:59 PM
Are we expecting a Moderate El Nino?

NAO is trending +
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 26, 2018, 11:53:46 PM
Are we expecting a Moderate El Nino?

NAO is trending +
correct.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 27, 2018, 06:13:41 AM
The NAO has been in mostly positive territory since late 2017 and has only recently dipped briefly negative.  While a -NAO helps to lock cold into our area, it's not the only driver for cold here.  In the recent colder winters, the NAO has remained neutral to positive, with only brief stints in negative territory, and those mostly occurred in our cold springs or during the summer months.  Why that is I don't know, but I'm relying on the NAO for NADA.

Below is the mean NAO index for 2013-15.  The only recent good winter where a -NAO locked in and drove the winter pattern was 09-10.  Since then, the NAO has been more cozy in positive territory during our winter months.

Quote
2013   0.35  -0.45  -1.61   0.69   0.57   0.52   0.67   0.97   0.24  -1.28   0.90   0.95
2014   0.29   1.34   0.80   0.31  -0.92  -0.97   0.18  -1.68   1.62  -1.27   0.68   1.86
2015   1.79   1.32   1.45   0.73   0.15  -0.07  -3.18  -0.76  -0.65   0.44   1.74   2.24
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 27, 2018, 09:09:27 AM
I viewed NOAA's forecast yesterday and they outlined the trend from the current negative to neutral by early November.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 28, 2018, 11:00:18 AM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/2lt0aww.png)

(http://i65.tinypic.com/ap8mrm.png)

(http://i63.tinypic.com/24q7clc.png)

(http://i66.tinypic.com/98d107.png)

(http://i67.tinypic.com/331o94n.png)

(http://i67.tinypic.com/zxmo86.png)


Temperature Breakdown:

December
Bowling Green KY: +3.0F
Chattanooga: +2.5F
Knoxville: +2.9F
Memphis: +2.5F
Nashville: +2.9F

January
Bowling Green KY: -1.5F
Chattanooga: -1.9F
Knoxville: -1.5F
Memphis: -2.0F
Nashville: -1.4F

February
Bowling Green KY: -5.0F
Chattanooga: -5.5F
Knoxville: -5.0F
Memphis: -5.0F
Nashville: -5.0F


Post Merge: October 28, 2018, 11:19:06 AM
I forgot the best part (unless you are in Idaho or the Pacific Northwest).

(http://i63.tinypic.com/97l160.png)

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 02, 2018, 02:04:01 PM
The NAO has been in mostly positive territory since late 2017 and has only recently dipped briefly negative.  While a -NAO helps to lock cold into our area, it's not the only driver for cold here.  In the recent colder winters, the NAO has remained neutral to positive, with only brief stints in negative territory, and those mostly occurred in our cold springs or during the summer months.  Why that is I don't know, but I'm relying on the NAO for NADA.

Below is the mean NAO index for 2013-15.  The only recent good winter where a -NAO locked in and drove the winter pattern was 09-10.  Since then, the NAO has been more cozy in positive territory during our winter months.

you can thank the negative EPO for the cold winters of these years despite the positive NAO. that would be the big warm blob that's still in place and incredibly persistent in the gulf of Alaska.


JB's updated winter maps with primary analogs of 2002-03 and 2009-10.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/xlifmh.png)
(http://i65.tinypic.com/1zl3ixc.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on November 09, 2018, 05:25:31 PM
In my experience a neutral to slightly positive NAO is best for winter storms in the western part of the state so I am ok with that kind of a forecast.  Strongly negative NAOs just means cold and dry most of the time here (though better for those of you to the east!).

Post Merge: November 10, 2018, 11:40:06 AM
I officially turned on the heat this weekend.  Winter is coming.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on November 12, 2018, 11:56:35 AM
Some of us in the west may get our first shot of the frozen stuff over night tonight.  Not much to talk about but I will take it for early November.  There is a potential second shot later in the week too!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2018, 12:19:06 PM
Some of us in the west may get our first shot of the frozen stuff over night tonight.  Not much to talk about but I will take it for early November.  There is a potential second shot later in the week too!

Good call to change to winter forum. May go ahead and start a thread for Wed PM since consistency is there. I know...I may kill chances now. The weather will do what it wants to.

Post Merge: November 12, 2018, 12:21:57 PM
The 12z Euro will be about as friendly for snow in west state as any so far. Really interesting set up. If the Euro doesn't show it, I usually will be highly suspect. Thus more confidence today. It puts down a nice 3-5 inch snowfall west of a Paris to Somerville line with greater accumulations in NW TN. SE MO gets hammered with heavy wet snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: memphishogfan on November 12, 2018, 01:03:39 PM
Donít you put that evil on us by starting a event thread.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on November 12, 2018, 04:07:07 PM
Good call to change to winter forum. May go ahead and start a thread for Wed PM since consistency is there. I know...I may kill chances now. The weather will do what it wants to.

Post Merge: November 12, 2018, 12:21:57 PM
The 12z Euro will be about as friendly for snow in west state as any so far. Really interesting set up. If the Euro doesn't show it, I usually will be highly suspect. Thus more confidence today. It puts down a nice 3-5 inch snowfall west of a Paris to Somerville line with greater accumulations in NW TN. SE MO gets hammered with heavy wet snow.

*revokes your Admin status due to sheer jealousy*
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on November 12, 2018, 04:19:31 PM
*revokes your Admin status due to sheer jealousy*

Probably not much to get jealous about, the usual scum bags to our NW will likely end up with all the fun while the metro gets dry slotted and/or drizzle at 33 degrees.  ::rofl::

Still though its nice to have an event to chase in November.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2018, 04:21:14 PM
Probably not much to get jealous about, the usual scum bags to our NW will likely end up with all the fun while the metro gets dry slotted and/or drizzle at 33 degrees.  ::rofl::

Still though its nice to have an event to chase in November.

SE MO has been a frickin jackpot this decade.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 12, 2018, 05:00:14 PM
Probably not much to get jealous about, the usual scum bags to our NW will likely end up with all the fun while the metro gets dry slotted and/or drizzle at 33 degrees.  ::rofl::

Still though its nice to have an event to chase in November.
Thatís not nice.  8)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 12, 2018, 05:04:28 PM
*revokes your Admin status due to sheer jealousy*


We can do that?  >:D 


Anyone who gets more snow than me, consider yourself revoked.   :police:
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on November 12, 2018, 05:19:48 PM

We can do that?  >:D 


Anyone who gets more snow than me, consider yourself revoked.   :police:

Well no, but I am in a ďHouse of CardsĒ mood and following the rules isnít exactly their thing! 😂😀
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2018, 06:36:22 PM
If you guys have looked at the annual snowfall totals this past decade, Memphis has beaten out the other three major cities several times. NW Tennessee has experienced several big storms, especially near the Reelfoot Lake region.

Leave it to mother nature to produce the most snow in the least-densely populated parts of Tennessee. Who the heck lives in Obion County? Lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2018, 06:37:43 PM
*revokes your Admin status due to sheer jealousy*

Ha well just give it time. The 18z man for whatever itís worth has more freezing rain than snow thus the MEG forecast for nothing in the metro. I bet this- these things are so weird- it wonít happen that way or what might even look possible today.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 12, 2018, 09:26:38 PM
Always can count on the 3k NAM.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2djzajp.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on November 12, 2018, 09:36:15 PM
Here's the 12KM NAM.

(https://i.imgur.com/VRnsyRo.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2018, 09:45:27 PM
Always can count on the 3k NAM.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2djzajp.jpg)

Just about all that accumulation from eastern half of west TN is freezing rain. In fact, if that run is taken verbatim, thereís above .25 in qpf along and just west of the TN River. Thereís actually some sleet west of there along with some snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 12, 2018, 09:46:54 PM
I want be up but could see first flakes of the year tonight according to HRRR.



Post Merge: November 12, 2018, 09:54:11 PM
Just about all that accumulation from eastern half of west TN is freezing rain. In fact, if that run is taken verbatim, thereís above .25 in qpf along and just west of the TN River. Thereís actually some sleet west of there along with some snow.
Correct. Should have put a sarcasm disclaimer.
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2018, 10:46:40 PM
Getting into mesoscale model time. I always have liked the RGEM while itís global usually takes a backseat. Anyways here is itís last hour of qpf and temps available at 48 hours.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181113/2a72a924524c05c574bbeaac89ada703.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 12, 2018, 10:54:53 PM
Officially have flakes flying in the burg.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 13, 2018, 05:32:51 AM
Officially have flakes flying in the burg.
congrats. Dyer.... u officially have 2 to 4 inches snow in your nws grid... wsw criteria   Small area nw if you. Got 3 to 5 inches forecasted ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 13, 2018, 06:17:39 AM
Woke up to white roof tops this morning. Good grief winter is getting a early start.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on November 13, 2018, 06:18:23 AM
MEG really ramping things up across West TN. Was surprised to see warning criteria totals across NW TN.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on November 13, 2018, 06:19:44 AM
Woke up to white roof tops this morning. Good grief winter is getting a early start.

Hope itís a sign of things to come for this upcoming winter, not having it happen now then torch for the rest of it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on November 13, 2018, 06:21:31 AM
congrats. Dyer.... u officially have 2 to 4 inches snow in your nws grid... wsw criteria   Small area nw if you. Got 3 to 5 inches forecasted ...

Start the thread lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 13, 2018, 06:28:59 AM
Euro last night. Might be time for Curt to pull the trigger on thread.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/3x3k4.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 13, 2018, 06:41:48 AM
Start the thread lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
i was going start it last nite after the euro ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 13, 2018, 07:03:03 AM
No snow here, but creeks are bursting at the seams after nearly 2 inches of rain (1.81") since yesterday morning.  Another soaking is coming by Wednesday night, and if we see any flakage in eastern areas, it will be Thursday night (but I'm not holding my breath).

Personally, after this week, I'll be glad to see the sun return on Friday. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 13, 2018, 08:08:40 AM
I was at Centennial Hospital all day yesterday as my Dad had successful aortic valve replacement surgery. I got home last night and seen these wild model runs. Looks like from neck of woods and points west and north especially have potential to see some winter weather. ULL can be tricky I hope Memphis can get in on some good action this early in the year and all of us for that matter. Looking forward to watching more runs today as I rest and give thanks for yesterdays great news. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 13, 2018, 08:32:38 AM
I was at Centennial Hospital all day yesterday as my Dad had successful aortic valve replacement surgery. I got home last night and seen these wild model runs. Looks like from neck of woods and points west and north especially have potential to see some winter weather. ULL can be tricky I hope Memphis can get in on some good action this early in the year and all of us for that matter. Looking forward to watching more runs today as I rest and give thanks for yesterdays great news. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Glad the surgery was a success!! 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on November 13, 2018, 08:51:42 AM
I was at Centennial Hospital all day yesterday as my Dad had successful aortic valve replacement surgery. I got home last night and seen these wild model runs. Looks like from neck of woods and points west and north especially have potential to see some winter weather. ULL can be tricky I hope Memphis can get in on some good action this early in the year and all of us for that matter. Looking forward to watching more runs today as I rest and give thanks for yesterdays great news. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Prayers for your Dads recovery. We got nice little coating last night. ::snowman:: Let it Snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 13, 2018, 09:09:12 AM
Interesting read. . .

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/photos/places-with-the-biggest-snowfall-in-history-in-every-state/ss-BBONLme?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/photos/places-with-the-biggest-snowfall-in-history-in-every-state/ss-BBONLme?ocid=ientp)

Many of the nearby states (including TN) set their records during the infamous Blizzard of '93. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on November 13, 2018, 10:06:21 AM
I was at Centennial Hospital all day yesterday as my Dad had successful aortic valve replacement surgery. I got home last night and seen these wild model runs. Looks like from neck of woods and points west and north especially have potential to see some winter weather. ULL can be tricky I hope Memphis can get in on some good action this early in the year and all of us for that matter. Looking forward to watching more runs today as I rest and give thanks for yesterdays great news. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Your Dad is in my prayers too Snowman!  Centennial is a nice hospital. 🙏🏻
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 13, 2018, 01:43:37 PM
Snow flurries for a few minutes earlier today, it sure is a cold one for sure. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 13, 2018, 01:48:12 PM
I donít think we are gonna make it above freezing today. Currently 32.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on November 13, 2018, 02:48:52 PM
I donít think we are gonna make it above freezing today. Currently 32.

Wonder what are the dates for the earliest sub-freezing highs around here?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 13, 2018, 03:05:08 PM
I donít think we are gonna make it above freezing today. Currently 32.
Memphis Intl is at 34 and NWS Memphis still at 32.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on November 13, 2018, 04:12:04 PM
For those of you disappointed about missing out on these first two bouts of winter weather, Austin and College Station, TX reported snow flurries this morning.  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 13, 2018, 04:39:22 PM
Don't know if it's been noticed, but western areas not the only ones that could see winter weather.  Parts of western North Carolina now under a winter storm watch for .25-.50" of ice accumulation Wednesday night.  Very unusual to see this much active winter weather in late autumn in our area.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on November 14, 2018, 02:09:58 PM
Don't know if it's been noticed, but western areas not the only ones that could see winter weather.  Parts of western North Carolina now under a winter storm watch for .25-.50" of ice accumulation Wednesday night.  Very unusual to see this much active winter weather in late autumn in our area.

Hopefully a sign of things to come for the winter!   ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: spanarkle08 on November 14, 2018, 02:13:27 PM
Sleet over to snow and boy is it snowing
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 14, 2018, 04:16:53 PM
The latest HRRR has shifted eastward with the snow and ice.  Now it shows accumulating snow in Hopkinsville, Clarksville, and even down into far NW Alabama.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 14, 2018, 05:36:56 PM
Hopefully a sign of things to come for the winter!   ::snowman::

Snow actually fell in parts of Louisiana--breaking records from over 60 years ago.  Snow in Louisiana in January is impressive.  It's only November.  Gotta be a good sign.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 16, 2018, 09:53:06 AM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 16, 2018, 10:30:27 AM
(Attachment Link)

So true!!  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 19, 2018, 06:55:26 PM
We are slated to begin meteorological winter with well-below average temperatures stadewide.

Here's to a Memphis to Tri-Cities winter event next month.  ::fingerscrossed::  ::snowman::  8)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 20, 2018, 06:56:34 AM
We are slated to begin meteorological winter with well-below average temperatures stadewide.

Here's to a Memphis to Tri-Cities winter event next month.  ::fingerscrossed::  ::snowman::  8)

 ::applause:: ::fingerscrossed::

Looks like excellent weather for travelers on Wednesday.  I'll be up in Big Blue territory for Thanksgiving with the folks. 

After a mostly quiet holiday week, next weeks looks cold again with a potentially strong storm system moving by to the north sending some cold air our way, along with some flurries and snow showers.   By the end of next week, we'll have a good snow pack developing across the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley--essential for keeping cold Canadian air refrigerated as it travels south toward us. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on November 20, 2018, 08:47:17 AM
Interesting read. . .

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/photos/places-with-the-biggest-snowfall-in-history-in-every-state/ss-BBONLme?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/photos/places-with-the-biggest-snowfall-in-history-in-every-state/ss-BBONLme?ocid=ientp)

Many of the nearby states (including TN) set their records during the infamous Blizzard of '93.
I read that over the weekend. Itís interesting, but I donít think itís right. Wasnít there a 50Ē+ report from the Mt Leconte caretaker from the superstorm? Maybe they are only considering towns and cities.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 20, 2018, 09:41:39 AM
I read that over the weekend. Itís interesting, but I donít think itís right. Wasnít there a 50Ē+ report from the Mt Leconte caretaker from the superstorm? Maybe they are only considering towns and cities.

Good question.  Maybe because it's a "one-day record."  Perhaps the 50" occurred over the whole storm duration from Friday to Sunday.   ::pondering::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 20, 2018, 10:57:21 AM
Good question.  Maybe because it's a "one-day record."  Perhaps the 50" occurred over the whole storm duration from Friday to Sunday.   ::pondering::

Some of the states surprised me... such as in parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest, such as MA, MI, OH, WI, ND, etc... records "only" 2 foot something... when the record for TN is around the same ballpark.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 20, 2018, 11:40:45 AM
Some of the states surprised me... such as in parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest, such as MA, MI, OH, WI, ND, etc... records "only" 2 foot something... when the record for TN is around the same ballpark.

Hmm, maybe we've got ourselves a bit of fake news here.   ;)

Perhaps we need an official fact checker on board.   ::coffee::
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 20, 2018, 12:41:39 PM
Hmm, maybe we've got ourselves a bit of fake news here.   ;)

Perhaps we need an official fact checker on board.   ::coffee::

Oh- I donít have any reason to doubt those figures per se. Itís just interesting is all. Other states have some 3 and 4 foot records and beyond. TN may not have the ďaverageĒ snowfall as some of those places, but at least our ďrecordsĒ can compete with some of the best of them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 20, 2018, 02:06:20 PM
TN may not have the ďaverageĒ snowfall as some of those places, but at least our ďrecordsĒ can compete with some of the best of them.


(https://img0.etsystatic.com/175/0/11128535/il_fullxfull.1096754948_3r49.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on November 20, 2018, 06:54:29 PM
Some of the states surprised me... such as in parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest, such as MA, MI, OH, WI, ND, etc... records "only" 2 foot something... when the record for TN is around the same ballpark.
Remember where the moisture source is. Since strong low pressure systems require a progressive pattern, there is a ceiling for how much precip can fall before the storm moves out. I can recall getting over 4Ē of rain from a gulf low here before. In theory that could produce 40+Ē of snow if the cold air is in the right place. Lake effect snow and western US ULLís donít abide by this principle, but I suspect 40-50Ē is only possible in the east with extreme orographic enhancement since the cold continental airmass required for snow will tend to eat up some of the moisture. The farther north you go, the less moisture is available.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 21, 2018, 07:20:04 AM
Freezing Fog advisory here this morning. Talk about a Jack Frost. It looks like it snowed.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on November 21, 2018, 07:45:36 AM
Freezing Fog advisory here this morning. Talk about a Jack Frost. It looks like it snowed.
Third morning with it here this year. That feels like a lot. Last Friday it was bad enough to cause a few wrecks on area bridges. MRX seems really shy about freezing fog advisories for some reason. I canít remember ever being under one despite its frequent occurrence here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 21, 2018, 07:45:52 AM
Freezing Fog advisory here this morning. Talk about a Jack Frost. It looks like it snowed.

Pretty cool- seeing a little rime on the trees. That doesnít happen often here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 21, 2018, 06:43:07 PM
Latest long-range EPS is quite the turkey is showing nearly coast to coast below average temperatures in the coming 1-2 weeks.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 24, 2018, 08:59:45 PM
The storm that kicks of Meteorological Winter (next weekend) may have some warm-sector features that may impact our area and especially areas to our south.   

We will have to watch this particular storm and see its exact track, strength, and ultimately the moisture return available for it.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 24, 2018, 11:04:50 PM
The storm that kicks of Meteorological Winter (next weekend) may have some warm-sector features that may impact our area and especially areas to our south.   

We will have to watch this particular storm and see its exact track, strength, and ultimately the moisture return available for it.
euro has been pretty bullish with this ..
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 25, 2018, 05:32:10 AM
Saw Chris Bailey's winter outlook for Kentucky this morning.  Calling for a much colder than normal winter (especially January & February), and above normal snowfall.  He also calls for several intense Arctic outbreaks, including one that will bring a -50 temperature drop in a 24 hour period.

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WKYT-Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Bailey-unveils-his-Winter-Weather-Forecast-500633191.html (https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WKYT-Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Bailey-unveils-his-Winter-Weather-Forecast-500633191.html)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 25, 2018, 06:33:46 AM
Both gfs and euro picking up a severe weather threat next weekend... spc starting to hint on it later 4 to 8 day outlook
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 25, 2018, 09:26:53 AM
Both gfs and euro picking up a severe weather threat next weekend... spc starting to hint on it later 4 to 8 day outlook

First few days of December look torchy. This may be interesting for you all in West Tennessee.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 25, 2018, 09:51:06 AM
mean while... we have winter storm bruce... lol ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 25, 2018, 12:00:19 PM
mean while... we have winter storm bruce... lol ;)

Congrats Bruce on having a winter storm named after you.  Too bad it is a Panhandle Hooker and not a Miller A or a robust overrunning event but at least TWC felt the honor to name a storm after you. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 25, 2018, 01:25:59 PM
Regarding the current blizzard- Euro is just a boss. It called the further south move 3 days ago and never turned back. GFS was left scrambling at the last minute. Chicago is about to get crushed.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 25, 2018, 01:41:58 PM
I believe that this is the first time that part of N IL has been under a Blizzard Warning since the Groundhogs Day (2011) storm. 


Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on November 25, 2018, 02:04:52 PM
Interesting radar presentation out of Chicago.  It appears to be some big time bright banding as the stations are only reporting light snow.  Maybe its more of a graupel mix based on the warmer layer in place at the moment.  Its still always eye catching to see 50+ dbz in a winter system.

(https://i.imgur.com/F9D6ZBY.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 25, 2018, 03:25:19 PM
Interesting radar presentation out of Chicago.  It appears to be some big time bright banding as the stations are only reporting light snow.  Maybe its more of a graupel mix based on the warmer layer in place at the moment.  Its still always eye catching to see 50+ dbz in a winter system.

(https://i.imgur.com/F9D6ZBY.jpg)


Yep I think they had some sleet mixed in earlier but itís all snow now. Minus the euro, models were downplaying snow along the lake in Chicago. Now like like it they will get a foot along with 50 mph gusts overnight. Bet they go blizzard warning for the city.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 25, 2018, 04:38:43 PM

Yep I think they had some sleet mixed in earlier but itís all snow now. Minus the euro, models were downplaying snow along the lake in Chicago. Now like like it they will get a foot along with 50 mph gusts overnight. Bet they go blizzard warning for the city.
yeah... Chicago has gone from winter storm warning... to now a blizzard warning... 50mph gust sustained 35 mph... snow totals for most of the city now  projected  8 to 13 inches...  bruce means business...  to bad bruce couldn't been a Tennessee wide major winter storm... but  my name is just to early season for that... ;D   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on November 25, 2018, 04:43:29 PM
Good to see wintry precip events in fantasyland again.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on November 26, 2018, 06:20:45 AM
Both gfs and euro picking up a severe weather threat next weekend... spc starting to hint on it later 4 to 8 day outlook
Major outdoor event in Memphis Saturday.  It's St. Jude Memphis Marathon Weekend.  The race will go unless there's severe weather during the race window.

The temperature and humidity will play a role.  The worst case, other than severe weather during the heart of the event, would be pre-frontal breaks in cloud cover that keep immediate rain away and send temps soaring.  This could send wet bulb global temperatures (WBGT) past 70 and set the stage for high heat stress conditions. This would put it in Category 4 for a marathon.

Last year, temps did soar but did so in much drier air, which allowed for adequate cooling to avoid such stress.

Ironically, the only event cancelation to date for St. Jude was in 2013 (for an ice storm). Running a marathon is- to say the least--is to tame a fickle beast.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on November 26, 2018, 06:29:19 AM
There's a surprising amount of wind as this front moves into/through East TN this morning (insert TWC coverage joke here).  It was howling overnight and is blowing enough this morning that we've already had the power flicker.  With the heavy clouds, winds, and cold air moving in it's as ugly a morning as we've seen here in a while.  On a good note, the wind was oriented in the right direction to blow most of the leaves in my backyard into a back corner of the fence, so there's that.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on November 26, 2018, 07:59:26 AM
Until our current season (fall) ends we should keep current weather discussion in the appropriate thread.  Letís lewve this thread to the fantasy extreme long range models for now :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on November 26, 2018, 12:03:47 PM
yeah... Chicago has gone from winter storm warning... to now a blizzard warning... 50mph gust sustained 35 mph... snow totals for most of the city now  projected  8 to 13 inches...  bruce means business...  to bad bruce couldn't been a Tennessee wide major winter storm... but  my name is just to early season for that... ;D

Pssh, your puny winter storm is nothing.  Michael (My actual name btw) was the real deal this year, and more importantly an actual legitimately named storm.   ;D ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 26, 2018, 12:09:57 PM
 >:D
Pssh, your puny winter storm is nothing.  Michael (My actual name btw) was the real deal this year, and more importantly an actual legitimately named storm.   ;D ::rofl::
>:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 26, 2018, 02:02:33 PM
Until our current season (fall) ends we should keep current weather discussion in the appropriate thread.  Letís lewve this thread to the fantasy extreme long range models for now :)

On Saturday, it will be meteorological winter, so at least we won't have to wait much longer before we retire the Fall thread.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 27, 2018, 11:28:07 AM
There's a surprising amount of wind as this front moves into/through East TN this morning (insert TWC coverage joke here).  It was howling overnight and is blowing enough this morning that we've already had the power flicker.  With the heavy clouds, winds, and cold air moving in it's as ugly a morning as we've seen here in a while.  On a good note, the wind was oriented in the right direction to blow most of the leaves in my backyard into a back corner of the fence, so there's that.

The wind howled at home all day yesterday.  I was on my last day of vacation, and got to enjoy the leaves blowing all over the place.  The only trees left with any leafage are the red oaks.  Even though the leaves are black now, they're still clinging on the trees.  Sometimes they linger half of the winter before falling.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 27, 2018, 12:03:49 PM
12z gfs trying to give us a nice over running event ... sort fantasy land ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on November 27, 2018, 02:07:24 PM
NWS Has just issued a SWS for Central Sullivan County in northeast TN (I'm in Kingsport). A nice light band of persistent light snow has been hanging around all day. SWS for Bluff City, Blountville, Tri-Cities Airport areas for up to 1". Been snowing here in Kingsport off and on all day. Nice to see.  :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 27, 2018, 03:18:53 PM
Spitting flurries in Knoxville right now
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 27, 2018, 03:45:53 PM
Snow is coming down at a good clip after I got home from work.  Very dark sky, wind, and the snow falling sideways makes it feel more like a convective snow shower.  Decent radar returns showing up as well.


(http://i68.tinypic.com/29oh2l1.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 27, 2018, 03:54:51 PM
I suspect the high Smokies might wring out some decent accumulations for that activity.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on November 27, 2018, 04:07:42 PM
I suspect the high Smokies might wring out some decent accumulations for that activity.

I work with a gentleman here in Kingsport that lives in Shady Valley (just west of Mountain City) and he has snow on the ground and snowing at his house. He's probably in the 2800 ft elevation range.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 27, 2018, 04:17:07 PM
This is impressive cold for November.  We're down to 28, currently, and only got up to 33 today (35 in Knoxville).  We're going down to the lower 20's tonight.  Teens on the Plateau, expected.

WBIR meteorologist Todd Howell said this evening that we've only been this cold in November 5 times before in the last 60 years (for a daytime high & average daily temp).  That's nothing to sneeze at (unless this weather makes you sick).

Post Merge: November 27, 2018, 04:26:10 PM
The snow "bursts" are definitely convective in nature--as seen in this radar clip.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2hhpzd3.gif)

The snow showers are "blowing up" and moving along the same path.  Strangely, they are in the same area as this morning's snow, as if there is some sort of boundary there assisting lift.  Whatever the cause, the deck and roof are both covered with snow again.  Keep it comin!

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 27, 2018, 05:21:36 PM
Canít believe no one has mentioned todays 12z GFS and CMC.  It canít be right though. They are showing a statewide snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 27, 2018, 06:00:17 PM
Canít believe no one has mentioned todays 12z GFS and CMC.  It canít be right though. They are showing a statewide snow.
i. Did mention it...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on November 27, 2018, 06:00:21 PM
Canít believe no one has mentioned todays 12z GFS and CMC.  It canít be right though. They are showing a statewide snow.

Not biting on it until it shows up for a few more runs.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 27, 2018, 07:16:19 PM
Wow good eye. In before you get hammered and we get screwed. Lol Your area always seems to do good (most of the time).
thanx...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Vols1 on November 27, 2018, 07:34:26 PM
When are the models saying snow?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 27, 2018, 07:42:48 PM
When are the models saying snow?
7. Th. 9th December area appears to be first time frame watch... still but out there...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 27, 2018, 07:43:58 PM
i. Did mention it...
Missed it somehow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on November 27, 2018, 09:08:26 PM
Well, since the prospect of a Little Ice Age due to a high likelihood of a grand solar minimum and a weakening of the AMOC is now in the daily news, I finally found a definitive source on what really matters to us and it looks like a slice of climatic heaven (if only) (except, surprise, we kind of get screwed)...

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181128/fcb01840fa2d7ca737fb3c3536fb3617.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181128/8596131db74194a9be1aff29b3806f00.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 28, 2018, 07:55:00 AM
So pretty much in a "Day After Tomorrow" situation the I-44 corridor still gets hit at times while we sit and watch. 

There also appears to be a permanent glacier that extends down to the Dakotas because how else can your average temperatures change a whole 30 degrees by going from one county to another.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 28, 2018, 08:38:30 AM
34-46" of snow in an average winter??   And cool summers to boot?   I'll take it and run. 

Of course, there might be a problem with food supply by then.  No fun watching it snow on an empty stomach!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 28, 2018, 09:01:46 AM
Last nite. 0z euro ... ever so close at day ten.... were it always looks good....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 28, 2018, 09:40:57 AM
Well, since the prospect of a Little Ice Age due to a high likelihood of a grand solar minimum and a weakening of the AMOC is now in the daily news, I finally found a definitive source on what really matters to us and it looks like a slice of climatic heaven (if only) (except, surprise, we kind of get screwed)...

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181128/fcb01840fa2d7ca737fb3c3536fb3617.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181128/8596131db74194a9be1aff29b3806f00.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

If this is the climate you want, then move to Nunavut.  ::flag::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 28, 2018, 10:56:30 AM
Storm still there on 12z gfs for the 9th and 10th. Frozen preip shield cuts through Tennessee.  Most of west and middle tn get in one some action but the frozen precip-liquid precip line is right on us. Still way out there, but I like the 8th-10th time frame. I think that's our next best chance anyway. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 28, 2018, 12:19:03 PM
8-14 day outlook shows blue coast to coast:

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2lcoi6u.gif)

The warm spell this weekend is not a long burning torch. 

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 28, 2018, 12:27:36 PM
8-14 day outlook shows blue coast to coast:

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2lcoi6u.gif)

The warm spell this weekend is not a long burning torch.
think I may go to Orlando Florida for that week. Lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 28, 2018, 06:54:46 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/kbeh4i.png)

This is what our El-Nino currently looks like.  It is a nice central-based El-Nino.  It is very similar in strength and orientation to 2006-07.  There is a big difference in the Gulf of Alaska (just below Alaska) from now till then if you are worried about a repeat of 2006-07 which I consider a pretty underwhelming winter.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/30n81vc.png)

Here is this time in November 2006 for comparison.   
 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on November 28, 2018, 10:19:43 PM
So pretty much in a "Day After Tomorrow" situation the I-44 corridor still gets hit at times while we sit and watch. 

There also appears to be a permanent glacier that extends down to the Dakotas because how else can your average temperatures change a whole 30 degrees by going from one county to another.
Notice that we sit in a relative snow hole.   Too warm for summer snow, too fast from the Gulf for deep winter snows.

I tell ya, it's the same ole thing!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on November 28, 2018, 10:21:18 PM
34-46" of snow in an average winter??   And cool summers to boot?   I'll take it and run. 

Of course, there might be a problem with food supply by then.  No fun watching it snow on an empty stomach!
Well, I can skin a buck, I can run a trot line, a country boy can survive.

I guess we'll be able to grow wheat!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on November 28, 2018, 10:22:46 PM
If this is the climate you want, then move to Nunavut.  ::flag::
I don't like the sun to be up that long plus there's no-uh - people up there.

You're right, though, we need more snow.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2018, 07:20:33 AM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/kbeh4i.png)

This is what our El-Nino currently looks like.  It is a nice central-based El-Nino.  It is very similar in strength and orientation to 2006-07.  There is a big difference in the Gulf of Alaska (just below Alaska) from now till then if you are worried about a repeat of 2006-07 which I consider a pretty underwhelming winter.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/30n81vc.png)

Here is this time in November 2006 for comparison.   
 

Very good illustration of how you need more than one puzzle piece to put together a good winter picture.  I think the warm "blob" (below Alaska) will play a huge role in this winter, as it did in previous cold winters since '13.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 29, 2018, 07:57:58 AM
Pacific region donít get straightened out... what cold we see this winter going pretty much transient...  pattern going be progressive ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 29, 2018, 11:04:23 AM
Pacific region donít get straightened out... what cold we see this winter going pretty much transient...  pattern going be progressive ...


Gosh well I guess itís a good thing itís only November 29th ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 29, 2018, 11:18:30 AM

Gosh well I guess itís a good thing itís only November 29th ;)
thats what my I phone has ... November 29th. Today...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 29, 2018, 11:31:01 AM
Pacific region donít get straightened out... what cold we see this winter going pretty much transient...  pattern going be progressive ...

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: David on November 29, 2018, 01:20:10 PM
(Attachment Link)

HAHA
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on November 29, 2018, 03:11:50 PM
It's like reading Christopher Walken.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on November 29, 2018, 04:26:33 PM
(Attachment Link)
::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 29, 2018, 05:15:07 PM
thats what my I phone has ... November 29th. Today...

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181129/5193e0319cf78c49f9ff2895a7af9e6d.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on November 29, 2018, 05:39:51 PM
It's like reading Christopher Walken.

Or Ozzy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2018, 06:20:01 PM
yonder.. Big snow Comin.. ? i seen active pattern ... big trough coming thru earl.y dec. like 4th thru 7th & more chance s on 10th 11th . .... cash in hopeful.. ly
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 29, 2018, 06:28:20 PM
yonder.. Big snow Comin.. ? i seen active pattern ... big trough coming thru earl.y dec. like 4th thru 7th & more chance s on 10th 11th . .... cash in hopeful.. ly
euro control... wallops the midsouth...in that period... 10  to 12 inches ::snowman::

Post Merge: November 29, 2018, 06:30:28 PM
Or Ozzy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
because im going off the rails on a crazy train.... ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2018, 06:30:44 PM
euro control... wallops the midsouth...in that period... 10  to 12 inches ::snowman::

east to. West blockbuster storm  ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2018, 07:16:46 PM
Lawd have mercy.  We'll all be spekin Bruce come end o this winter.  ::forecast::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Volduff64 on November 29, 2018, 11:01:33 PM
18 giveith 0 takeith  ::cliff::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on November 30, 2018, 07:13:55 AM
18 giveith 0 takeith  ::cliff::

Euro runs at 18z?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 30, 2018, 07:49:31 AM
Euro runs at 18z?
he is talking bout the gfs. 18z gfs was a snow storm for us... 0z gfs says not so fast my friend ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on November 30, 2018, 08:03:13 AM
he is talking bout the gfs. 18z gfs was a snow storm for us... 0z gfs says not so fast my friend ...

Ahh, I thought I remembered reading the Euro was thinking about running in off hours. Maybe it was Maue tweeting about it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2018, 11:35:26 AM
Looks kind of I-44ey. Me no likey.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2018, 12:04:24 PM
I've not been paying that much attention to the model madness yet.  Even in good winters, early December is...well...early for us.  Storm tracks usually aren't favorable for us to see winter weather this far east and south.  Look toward mid/late December. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 30, 2018, 01:09:29 PM
Havenít. Got the good euro maps. But looks interesting later next week ... looks sleety  for some Mid-South ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on November 30, 2018, 01:24:38 PM
That 12z Euro run...it moved SE on next weekend's system. It intensified it too. ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 30, 2018, 04:32:06 PM
The strength of the high pressure and position will be key as the system doesn't look like it will be bringing a lot of cold air with it.

Of course being 8 days out one can expect a variety of modeled tracks, solutions, joys, and disappointments because that is what model watching is all about. 

If you want to see winter weather in December we need this system to cash in because things look to relax in a big way starting Mid-December and probably lasting through the Holidays.  Before we deal with a possibly favorable to very-favorable January-February we will have to deal with our scheduled El-Nino December weather.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 30, 2018, 05:31:21 PM
I believe Iíll pass.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/257gkyv.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 30, 2018, 06:14:51 PM
Come on dyer I know your ready for another round. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 30, 2018, 07:15:55 PM
Suprise no one posted the 18zgfs... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on November 30, 2018, 07:20:24 PM
Sorry to throw in the towel so early. But, Iím ready for spring. No doubt Iíll get amped at every opportunity and watch the models. Love my snow. Just starting to hate bitter fruitless days.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: EastTNWX on November 30, 2018, 09:39:06 PM
Suprise no one posted the 18zgfs... lol

It looks good for some action!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2018, 06:52:57 AM
Per MRX:

Quote
Dry weather and gradual warming temperatures will take place
Wednesday night through Friday as the region gets ready for the next
cold front. It will be interesting to watch this system over the
next several days. Today`s longer range forecasts indicate the
possibility of a significant winter storm by the end of next
weekend. Needless to say, we will keep an eye on how this develops
over the next several days.
     ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 01, 2018, 06:59:06 AM
Per MRX:
     ::popcorn::
MEG ...  going with all rain   over this end state... yuck...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2018, 07:02:39 AM
Euro not our friend this morning.  It shows a more elevation based winter event.  Plateau gets snow, and the mountains.  Western NC gets crushed.  We're on the wrong side of the mountains.   ::shrug::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 01, 2018, 07:46:27 AM
Euro not our friend this morning.  It shows a more elevation based winter event.  Plateau gets snow, and the mountains.  Western NC gets crushed.  We're on the wrong side of the mountains.   ::shrug::
7-8 days out...I like that weíre not in the bullseye. Weíre in the vicinity, and thatís all we need right now. For MRX to mention the potential of a Winter Storm a week out, itís got some serious potential. Theyíre typically the most conservative office in the state. Usually the last to issue watches/warnings, waiting until 2-3 days out to mention any winter weather potential and usually do it in a pessimistic fashion lol.

This has become something worth watching. Who knows, maybe weíll cash in big.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on December 01, 2018, 08:27:25 AM
I have to be back and forth from Knoxville to Bristol for work next Saturday, so that works in our favor for a heavy hitting winter storm in the 7 day outlook.  I'll take what I can get and maybe if it comes in early enough I'll be able to get a free pass.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 01, 2018, 08:42:34 AM
I'm sitting back on this one. Has the look of an I-44 knockout storm that will dump snow on OKC, Tulsa, KC, Des Moines and Chicago. Ice for STL, Paducah, Little Rock and the eastern side of the Appalachians in NC.

I'd prefer to be a surprised pessimist. We shall see.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 01, 2018, 09:25:37 AM
El NiŮo argues for a further south track. Climatology argues for northern. Truth is somewhere in the middle most likely.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 01, 2018, 03:01:29 PM
12z Euro. My front yard does good.  ::rofl::

(http://i63.tinypic.com/308k5ug.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 01, 2018, 03:36:52 PM
This storm
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 01, 2018, 03:49:57 PM
12z Euro. My front yard does good.  ::rofl::

(http://i63.tinypic.com/308k5ug.jpg)

If we have a track like this, Iíd be nervous for the entirety of the event 😂.

Speaking of close calls, KY has been the sweet spot for a few years now. Given this look they would be sitting pretty.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 01, 2018, 06:41:21 PM
I wonder if there are any similarities to the upcoming pattern and the Dec 4th-5th 2002 storm.  The modeled storm setup looks very much like that event.  Plus 2002-03 is an analog for this winter as well.   

Post Merge: December 01, 2018, 07:26:45 PM
Some of the locations that were impacted by last weekends blizzard were impacted by tornadoes today.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 02, 2018, 09:19:18 AM
You know it's going to be a warm winter day when it's already 60 by 10:00 a.m.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 02, 2018, 09:41:22 AM
Currently, northern parts of Arkansas and Tennessee look good for some winter weather next weekend and if the southward trend continues on the Euro the Memphis metro may be in play.

0Z Euro
(https://i.imgur.com/3fpKWu1.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 09:47:06 AM
I couldn't believe nobody had the Euro up when I got up this morning but Clint took care of it in short order. Now just a little more jog southeast and many more would be in that game. Still aways out but I am beginning to think at least some on this board are going to get in on some winter action next weekend.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 02, 2018, 10:00:54 AM
I couldn't believe nobody had the Euro up when I got up this morning but Clint took care of it in short order. Now just a little more jog southeast and many more would be in that game. Still aways out but I am beginning to think at least some on this board are going to get in on some winter action next weekend.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

While hopeful, I'm afraid Climatology will win out and we see a shift northward. Hope I'm wrong. I'm ready to see some of the white stuff.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 02, 2018, 10:24:13 AM
Currently, northern parts of Arkansas and Tennessee look good for some winter weather next weekend and if the southward trend continues on the Euro the Memphis metro may be in play.

0Z Euro
(https://i.imgur.com/3fpKWu1.png)

Wow, southern Knox Co gets a dusting, while northern Knox gets over 4."  If the trend continues there's going to be a sharp gradient/cut-off in snow amounts.  The rain/snow line will be right on top of us, and some may see heavy snow, while rain is falling 10 miles away.  And thanks to a cold wedge, parts of northeast GA and upstate SC may see more snow than southern TN.

This system has great potential for winter fun and heartbreak. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 02, 2018, 10:25:43 AM
Oh Canada!!!

(http://i67.tinypic.com/aktjph.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on December 02, 2018, 10:35:20 AM
It would sure be nice to look at 6-12 inches for next weekend but I will be common about it. ::faint:: ::faint:: ::faint::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 02, 2018, 11:00:24 AM
12Z GFS has a horseshoe of accumulating snow in northwest TN, KY and back down into northeast TN.  Far northeast TN, VA, and western NC get hammered. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 02, 2018, 11:10:22 AM
12Z GFS has a horseshoe of accumulating snow in northwest TN, KY and back down into northeast TN.  Far northeast TN, VA, and western NC get hammered.

I would assume 7:1 ratios if this materialised. Temperatures will be above freezing statewide. 1-3 deg C / 33-38 deg F.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 02, 2018, 11:17:43 AM
12Z GFS has a horseshoe of accumulating snow in northwest TN, KY and back down into northeast TN.  Far northeast TN, VA, and western NC get hammered.

I live in NE Hamblen County and work in Kingsport. I hope we get something, hopefully 6"+.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 02, 2018, 11:21:55 AM
It can happen. This was Dec 10, 2010.(http://i68.tinypic.com/2ik5gs0.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 02, 2018, 11:26:03 AM
The CMC is SO close to a big event for a lot of TN. Congrats parts of west/western middle TN!

[attachimg=1][attachimg=2]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 02, 2018, 12:24:14 PM
Gfs came in colder and further south. Trends. Little Rock northward to the MO border gets absolutely pummeled.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 12:34:51 PM
Euro is sounding like it is coming in south as well. Actually to far south, but I like it there this far out. LOL! ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 02, 2018, 01:07:15 PM
Euro  ::lookaround::


(http://i65.tinypic.com/11vlhtw.jpg)

New GFS. Snow for all  ::rofl::

(http://i63.tinypic.com/1q1ykz.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 02, 2018, 01:30:44 PM
Southward seems the trend.  Like Curt said, El Nino argues for a southward shift.  As long as it doesn't shift clear out into the Gulf.

Amazing to be tracking something this early.  Hopefully, a sign of things to come!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 02, 2018, 01:30:53 PM
Go home Euro, your drunk.

Post Merge: December 02, 2018, 01:31:58 PM
Southward seems the trend.  Like Curt said, El Nino argues for a southward shift.  As long as it doesn't shift clear out into the Gulf.

Amazing to be tracking something this early.  Hopefully, a sign of things to come!

Yes, let's repeat these Lows tracking south of us about a month from now.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 02, 2018, 01:33:06 PM
Euro  ::lookaround::


(http://i65.tinypic.com/11vlhtw.jpg)

New GFS. Snow for all  ::rofl::

(http://i63.tinypic.com/1q1ykz.jpg)

Wow, that Euro is something freaky!  That would be historic + for the northern Gulf states and upstate SC.

Post Merge: December 02, 2018, 01:36:06 PM
Meanwhile, I've got my windows open today airing out the house one last time--at 71 degrees!  All the while tracking cold and snow coming by weeks end.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 01:54:05 PM
I like the general trend going south the last several runs overall on all models. You almost know there will probably be a northern shift as we get closer. But the overall signal is there and at least parts of Tennessee could be impacted in a few different scenarios, from a I-40 north solution to a south of I-40 solution or the perfect track where we all get in the action. It's going to be another fun week of tracking, I have a feeling at the very least some parts of the state could get some wintry weather and quite possible much more. Good vibes for all! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 02, 2018, 01:54:49 PM
Euro continues the southward trend along with all other modeling. Wonder if we wonít be dealing with suppression soon. That run is almost identical to the snow storm in January 2011

Looked at the euro control. Snowfall map is identical to the euro ops. It basically shears out past West TN while Arkansas is crushed. The Hp to the north is much stronger thus is fighting dry air as it tries to come out of the southern plains into the mid south. Seen this several times before and in an extreme case January 2000. It took the snow band 12 hours to get to Memphis from LR.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: memphishogfan on December 02, 2018, 02:03:27 PM
Yíall boys and girls keep this snow in Tennessee this time around please. Weíve got my daughters 3rd birthday party in Jonesboro Saturday morning and I really donít want to have to cancel.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 02, 2018, 02:06:14 PM
I bet the NC posters on southern weather are freaking out now since itís been showing a snow bonanza for runs now showing zilch
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 02, 2018, 02:19:58 PM
A big snowstorm going south of us will never be okay with me. Never.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 02:23:51 PM
At this point we are as much in the game as anybody. I would rather be needing it too come north at this point than south. These deals almost always seem to trend north in the end. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 02, 2018, 02:27:31 PM
At this point we are as much in the game as anybody. I would rather be needing it too come north at this point than south. These deals almost always seem to trend north in the end. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Until they donít and Huntsville gets a nice 6-8Ē snow and we get zilch.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on December 02, 2018, 02:46:27 PM
Yíall boys and girls keep this snow in Tennessee this time around please. Weíve got my daughters 3rd birthday party in Jonesboro Saturday morning and I really donít want to have to cancel.

It looks to pound Jonesboro......
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 02, 2018, 02:59:56 PM
Slight chance of a wintry mix for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for NE TN, high elevations, and the Cumberland Plateau.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 03:41:43 PM
Until they donít and Huntsville gets a nice 6-8Ē snow and we get zilch.
No doubt if we were 2 or 3 days out and it was showing that I would be worried for I-40 north for sure. Right now, it's more watching to see which way it trends the next few days. Still lots of possibilities. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 02, 2018, 04:00:31 PM
climo... will eventually come in to play here... still say the bootheel mo... ne Arkansas... and western Kentucky be iin the sweep spot...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 04:05:40 PM
climo... will eventually come in to play here... still say the bootheel mo... ne Arkansas... and western Kentucky be iin the sweep spot...
That tracks happens a lot but I still think west and northwest middle tn stand a good chance at the moment. But your right I would still bank on missing a little to the north and west than south of us at this point. Just from a climo perspective you have to worry about it going north more at this stage still, IMHO. But like Seinfeld said you still got to like our chances. LOL! ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 02, 2018, 04:23:53 PM
climo... will eventually come in to play here... still say the bootheel mo... ne Arkansas... and western Kentucky be iin the sweep spot...

Bruce, I must respectfully ask: Why do you write like this? Asking for a friend   ::pondering::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 02, 2018, 04:29:50 PM
The real area that needs to worry is Kentucky. They was the sweet spot like yesterday? Like the whole state was hit good now its zilch for all of them it seems pretty much. Depends a lot on how strong the high pressure is and the precip spread of the Low.

The sweet spot will dance around for another ~ 5 days. Heck, we should know from experience that even a day before the event things can change in a big way.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: SKEW-TIM on December 02, 2018, 05:18:07 PM
 ::coffee::Already peaking interest here in NC 🤩
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 02, 2018, 05:28:07 PM
::coffee::Already peaking interest here in NC 🤩

Yea, the CAD region of NC looks really good right now. Good Luck!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 02, 2018, 05:34:56 PM
I know we still have about 10-11 more Euro updates until the system is here, but the latest Euro Ensemble Mean is 2-4" STATEWIDE.  ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on December 02, 2018, 06:12:25 PM
Wake me up in 5 days when the clown map show is over
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 02, 2018, 06:31:19 PM
Wake me up in 5 days when the clown map show is over
thats the fun part of it.... weather itís heartbreak or getting crushed.... it gets me through the winter .... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 02, 2018, 06:45:19 PM
18z GEFS anyone?  ::yum::


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 02, 2018, 07:19:27 PM
18z GEFS anyone?  ::yum::


Thanks for posting.  Looks like someone between the Ohio and Tennessee Rivers will see snow next weekend.  Hopefully, we'll have a better idea who by Wednesday.  Or not.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 02, 2018, 07:41:46 PM
Not getting excited about this system until the Euro still has the storm on the Tuesday night run. It's all very interesting though.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 02, 2018, 08:36:52 PM
The Tuesday night into Wednesday little system is looking more and more positive for things up here on the Rim and Plateau.

Also wouldnít be shocked to see other locations in middle TN see some flakes out of this too.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 02, 2018, 09:46:15 PM
Just catching up after a busy weekend... I know when a thread spans multiple pages from posts on the same day, something is up. lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on December 02, 2018, 09:53:54 PM
Storm looks good for the smokie mountains.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 02, 2018, 11:38:33 PM
The new model taking the gfs ... just put down 15 inches from Little Rock to west Memphis... most West Tennessee close to 10 inches ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 11:54:56 PM
Yep most of west and some of middle would get walloped it that verified. And parts of east tn as well. The euro is coming in looking good for west and middle tn north of I-40 still a lot can change. East Tn looks good also. But it's still early in the game but it's nice to see the storm signal still there.  ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 05:19:27 AM
Euro is generous to upper middle TN/plateau, and gives east TN from Knoxville east something to write home about.  Tri-Cities gets a winter wallop. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 03, 2018, 05:40:17 AM
The new GFS is much more favorable for us in terms of winter weather than the old guard.

[attachimg=1][attachimg=2][attachimg=3]

[attachment deleted by admin]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 03, 2018, 06:12:23 AM
Yes. Iíll cash the 0z Euro please. Lol. Over a foot IMBY. And drops about 20 inches in Kingsport. Reminiscent of 93 March totals lol. Of course, this is very clownish. But, Iím growing more confident weíll see a white ground this weekend. How much is long yet to be determined.

I aint even looked at GFS. The Euro was enough for me right now lol.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 06:47:22 AM
The new GFS is much more favorable for us in terms of winter weather than the old guard.

(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

The two versions are so far apart it's like looking at two completely different models.  The new gives Tennessee snow from west to east.  And a lot of it.  The old version says, "meh."  Hope the new kicks the old to the curb. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 03, 2018, 06:50:49 AM
This will be a good test for the new GFS in the mid range. Consistently showing way more snow for Tennessee.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/3450z6o.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 06:58:53 AM
Oz euro thumps Oklahoma To parts of Arkansas ... but looks like it sheared out over much midsouth with to much northern stream... then phases again east of us hammers parts East Tennessee and western two thirds of North Carolina... go figure
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 07:21:33 AM
This will be a good test for the new GFS in the mid range. Consistently showing way more snow for Tennessee.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/3450z6o.jpg)

One thing that concerns me about that run of V3 is the heavy snow in South Carolina--almost to the coast.  That's not impossible, but on December 8th?  Climatology argues against that.  If it happens, this storm is one for the history books.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 03, 2018, 07:34:16 AM
One thing that concerns me about that run of V3 is the heavy snow in South Carolina--almost to the coast.  That's not impossible, but on December 8th?  Climatology argues against that.  If it happens, this storm is one for the history books.
North ATL metro got a foot of snow about this time last year. Never say never.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 08:07:08 AM
Hate be down on the snow chances.  But think weíre slowly loosing it for much west middle Tennessee... Epps wasnít as good... lots of itís members has most Tennessee getting much of anything  .... think last nights euro started a trend. Best part  itís still early December ... but we do look to warm up after this system for while ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 08:36:29 AM
Best part  itís still early December ... but we do look to warm up after this system for while ....

Exactly.  I've been wary of this system anyway.  I don't expect a lot in December, but as Charles said, it's painful to lose a system to our south, especially in early December.  I rather lose it to the northwest trend. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 08:37:11 AM
Hate be down on the snow chances.  But think weíre slowly loosing it for much west middle Tennessee... Epps wasnít as good... lots of itís members has most Tennessee getting much of anything  .... think last nights euro started a trend. Best part  itís still early December ... but we do look to warm up after this system for while ....

None of us can make any serious calls until NAM gets within range. I think by Thursday we will know where the low will be.

Thankfully, this isn't one of those clippers that just vanishes in the model runs. Plenty of Gulf moisture to fuel this one. We just have to hope the low is well to the south.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 03, 2018, 08:54:54 AM
The Tuesday night into Wednesday little system is looking more and more positive for things up here on the Rim and Plateau.

Also wouldnít be shocked to see other locations in middle TN see some flakes out of this too.

Most of the short range/hi res models are now picking up on the snow showers from late this evening all the way into Wednesday morning. Some models even showing some in non-favored areas off of the Plateau/mountains. Looks like for those of us not in favored areas we'll have to hope there is some precip around Tuesday night when temps might allow for minor accumulations. Will be something to watch while we model gaze at the weekend.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 03, 2018, 08:59:06 AM
We've seen ULLs dump snow as far down as south MS and LA in early December in recent years. It does appear we have a system to watch for someone later this week.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 09:10:15 AM
North ATL metro got a foot of snow about this time last year. Never say never.

Oh, it's very possible.  Just not typical. 

Post Merge: December 03, 2018, 09:37:07 AM
We've seen ULLs dump snow as far down as south MS and LA in early December in recent years. It does appear we have a system to watch for someone later this week.

If it goes that-a-way, I won't begrudge the south for getting it again.  It is Christmas, after all.  The season of sharing.    ;D

I will just change the channel if it shows up in the nightly news.     ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 03, 2018, 09:49:19 AM
Most of the short range/hi res models are now picking up on the snow showers from late this evening all the way into Wednesday morning. Some models even showing some in non-favored areas off of the Plateau/mountains. Looks like for those of us not in favored areas we'll have to hope there is some precip around Tuesday night when temps might allow for minor accumulations. Will be something to watch while we model gaze at the weekend.

Todayís 12z 3km NAM run was the best to highlight this early week snow flurry/shower ďeventĒ.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on December 03, 2018, 10:07:39 AM
Storm looks good for the smokie mountains.

SMOKY Mountains
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 03, 2018, 10:16:39 AM
And the old guard 12z GFS comes in further south. Mainly an I-40 south event. Big difference from the 0z run.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 11:09:24 AM
CMC. Just hammers west Kentucky ... foot in many spots ... 4 to 6 for parts west tennessee
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 03, 2018, 11:12:01 AM
SMOKY SMOKEY Mountains

FTFY.   ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 03, 2018, 11:21:26 AM
The new 12z GFS is something...[attachimg=1][attachimg=2][attachimg=3]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 03, 2018, 11:33:08 AM
I'm supposed to be running a half marathon in Pigeon Forge Sunday morning. If it falls as snow it will be cancelled which sucks, but if it is too warm, I'll be running in 35 degree rain which also sucks. And I have to decide by Wednesday at 4 PM whether to cancel my hotel. Oh joy.

I see a lot of very good potential here. The HP is very strong but would need to be a little further SE for me to feel comfortable. LPC isn't very strong, which would minimize WAA. It is also obviously a very juicy system. Somebody is getting hammered.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 11:33:40 AM
Can the euro finally be the outlier for first time in awhile ... weíre fixing find out soon....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 11:58:50 AM
The king is up n fixing run as I speak...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 12:07:36 PM
The new 12z GFS is something... (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

A corner storm.  As in, only the northwest corner and northeast corner of Tennessee get snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 03, 2018, 12:09:43 PM
A corner storm.  As in, only the northwest corner and northeast corner of Tennessee get snow.
Iím good with that lol. Cmon northern valley areas!


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 12:15:46 PM
Iím good with that lol. Cmon northern valley areas!


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 ::rofl::  Not much wiggle room on those maps. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Scot on December 03, 2018, 12:17:24 PM
Iím good with that lol. Cmon northern valley areas!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That's not nice!     ::shaking_finger::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 12:28:41 PM
From the maps posted here, and some others I've seen online (Canuck), the rain-snow line wants to hug the KY-TN border.  So close.  A slight shift south is needed, and is quite possible.  This is still 5-6 days out.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 03, 2018, 12:33:26 PM
It appears the Euro ticked north a tad


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 12:44:13 PM
It appears the Euro ticked north a tad


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
yeah. The euro was warmer ... 850s wonít get her done on this run ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 12:50:31 PM
https://www.nps.gov/grsm/index.htm

Yanks can't even spell correctly in their own **** language
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 03, 2018, 12:51:46 PM
https://www.nps.gov/grsm/index.htm

Yanks can't even spell correctly in their own **** language

Even with autocorrect


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 12:56:10 PM
12Z Euro is 40 degree rain for basically everybody
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 12:56:52 PM
Far be it from me to correct anyone's spelling, but there's always been a "great" debate on this subject.

https://www.visitmysmokies.com/blog/smoky-mountains/smoky-mountains-vs-smokey-mountains/ (https://www.visitmysmokies.com/blog/smoky-mountains/smoky-mountains-vs-smokey-mountains/)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 03, 2018, 01:07:22 PM
12Z Euro is 40 degree rain for basically everybody

That's more like it. This system just doesn't have much cold air to play with. Old Man Winter is just giving us a peak into whats coming in January.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on December 03, 2018, 01:38:59 PM
Maybe, I'm not all wrong. I think everyone on here understood what I was talking about. ::scratch::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 03, 2018, 02:23:47 PM
People throwing in the towel extra early with this one I see.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on December 03, 2018, 02:44:56 PM
FTFY.   ;D


Think again.....

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 02:48:53 PM

Think again.....

Greyhound is right
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on December 03, 2018, 02:57:22 PM
Far be it from me to correct anyone's spelling, but there's always been a "great" debate on this subject.

https://www.visitmysmokies.com/blog/smoky-mountains/smoky-mountains-vs-smokey-mountains/ (https://www.visitmysmokies.com/blog/smoky-mountains/smoky-mountains-vs-smokey-mountains/)

Smoky vs Smokey......but it definitely ain't SMOKIE (apologies to "Ballpark"). 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 03, 2018, 02:57:52 PM
Greyhound is right

Ha- I'll admit, when I first saw it, "Smoky" didn't look right to me either. So, I looked it up, and sure enough it is "Smoky Mountains." "Smokey" is apparently a valid spelling variation of the word "smoky."

For example, "Smokey Bear" is spelled with the "e" while "Smoky Mountains" isn't.

Now back to the discussion on who's going to get "smoked" by the storm this week.  ::blowtorch:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 03, 2018, 03:15:03 PM

Think again.....

We've had Smoky, Smokey, Smokie.  Lucky I didn't spell it "Smokee".
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 03, 2018, 03:23:52 PM
People throwing in the towel extra early with this one I see.  ::rofl::

I was never in the ring to start with on this one. At least for my area. Maybe Nashville_Wx can hike LeConte this weekend and get us some good snow shots. They should do very well.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 03:56:43 PM
Smoky vs Smokey......but it definitely ain't SMOKIE (apologies to "Ballpark").

It would be easy for non-locals to be confused.  "Smokies Stadium" for example.  Take the "s" off, and you have Smokie.   And besides, I knew what he meant.  I've seen far worse grammar and spelling on here, but I ain't namin' no names.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 03, 2018, 04:09:08 PM
That upper low that swings across the entire state Saturday night into Sunday could be really tricky. While temps are marginal on the euro , it looks strong enough to me to generate some of its own cold air. Lots of time left.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 04:33:15 PM
We've had Smoky, Smokey, Smokie.  Lucky I didn't spell it "Smokee".

Smokť
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 04:34:43 PM
Both versions of the GFS are running.  V2 finishes first.  V3 (the new one) is just starting.  So far, I'm not impressed with what the old version is showing.  But at least it's been consistent.  Strangely, it shows very little for the Plateau.  I would think with this type of system, it would do better than surrounding areas. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 03, 2018, 04:47:48 PM
Look at the GFS last 7 runs, including the 18Z today. It appears today's 12Z run is the outlier. 18Z and 5 runs prior to 12Z have been very consistent. Snow just north of TN/KY border.  ::shrug::

Last 5 runs of Euro, yesterday's 12Z is outlier. Other 4 runs have been consistent and in-line with GFS. Snow just north of TN/KY border.

Interesting that they're this consistent 5-7 days out, based on those runs. Will be interesting to see if they hold or trend North or South. So far, the trend is constant when throwing out the outliers.

Let's see how the next 2 days runs compare.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 04:54:35 PM
Yeah, the current run of the old version does have the rain/snow line further north than the previous runs--more along the Ohio River. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 03, 2018, 05:02:06 PM
Yeah, the current run of the old version does have the rain/snow line further north than the previous runs--more along the Ohio River.

When does GFS 2.0 run?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 05:15:15 PM
When does GFS 2.0 run?

In the process now on this site . . .


https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/)


Click on GFSFV3
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WestKnoxNavster on December 03, 2018, 06:13:04 PM
Just wanted to chime in on the Smoky vs Smokey vs Smokie vs Smokee vs Smokť.

Sorry to burst y'alls bubble.

But it's correctly spelled:

Smokeye.  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 06:51:45 PM
The new GFS dumps a boatload of snow.  Mostly in KY.  Rain/snow line almost follows the TN/KY border mile for mile. The northeast corner of TN also gets in on the action.  Johnson City looks like the place to be this weekend if GFS 3.0 is correct.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on December 03, 2018, 07:34:24 PM
At this point in the game, we've got 2 big factors at play.
1) The pacific disturbance: Strength, Timing, and Location. A moderate-to-strong cutoff low is approaching Southern California. Still, we aren't nearing landfall and until that is the case run to run wiggles the forecast track east of the rockies aren't that relevant as data sampling is very limited. The strength of these cutoff lows tend to be overestimated prior to landfall which is going to be an important consideration. Normally, a strong, deepening ULL would translate favorably further to the east, however, in this scenario, it's going to encourage too much WAA in our neck of the woods. Timing isn't optimal as the trailing edge of a shallow arctic airmass retreats eastward. Snow in the South is just plain tough without blocking.

2) Temps. We all know this; you've gotta have cold air in place south of the Mason-Dixon for widespread snowfall. West of Apps, it just isn't there. Even with a southerly track, temps are going to be an issue for most of TN. I just don't think we have a shot at anafrontal snowfall. It will be a roll of the dice as the ULL passes east (assuming a favorable track) which really takes blockbuster totals out of the equation for most.

TL;DR: Pattern just isn't favorable for statewide southern slider. Temps are a major issue and the timing of the ULL isn't optimal.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 03, 2018, 08:41:21 PM
Someone started a thread on Southern Weather yesterday around noon and it is already 50 pages long.  ::rofl:: They need help.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 08:48:17 PM
Someone started a thread on Southern Weather yesterday around noon and it is already 50 pages long.  ::rofl:: They need help.
they are some serious snow weenies over there... but to be honest... 2 thirds of north Carolina did look like they were in the sweet spot for a big thump of snow... but I think your fixing to see some cliff diving starting tonite...lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 09:08:36 PM
Someone started a thread on Southern Weather yesterday around noon and it is already 50 pages long.  ::rofl:: They need help.

They can bugger off. They got snow last December.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 03, 2018, 09:31:09 PM
At this point in the game, we've got 2 big factors at play.
1) The pacific disturbance: Strength, Timing, and Location. A moderate-to-strong cutoff low is approaching Southern California. Still, we aren't nearing landfall and until that is the case run to run wiggles the forecast track east of the rockies aren't that relevant as data sampling is very limited. The strength of these cutoff lows tend to be overestimated prior to landfall which is going to be an important consideration. Normally, a strong, deepening ULL would translate favorably further to the east, however, in this scenario, it's going to encourage too much WAA in our neck of the woods. Timing isn't optimal as the trailing edge of a shallow arctic airmass retreats eastward. Snow in the South is just plain tough without blocking.

2) Temps. We all know this; you've gotta have cold air in place south of the Mason-Dixon for widespread snowfall. West of Apps, it just isn't there. Even with a southerly track, temps are going to be an issue for most of TN. I just don't think we have a shot at anafrontal snowfall. It will be a roll of the dice as the ULL passes east (assuming a favorable track) which really takes blockbuster totals out of the equation for most.

TL;DR: Pattern just isn't favorable for statewide southern slider. Temps are a major issue and the timing of the ULL isn't optimal.

Well stated. Agree.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 10:23:30 PM
Well the 0z throws us a bone nice wrap around snow for most west tenn... big hit for Ne arkansas ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 10:43:50 PM
Well the 0z throws us a bone nice wrap around snow for most west tenn... big hit for Ne arkansas ....

West Tennessee can bugger off too- you got all the snow last year and already saw some in November.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 03, 2018, 10:54:23 PM
West Tennessee can bugger off too- you got all the snow last year and already saw some in November.

We want it all


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 11:01:43 PM
We want it all


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Eat tumbleweeds.

Wait, that's Oklahoma.

Um.

I don't know. Eat dirt. I'll drink moonshine and play the fiddle in the meantime until it finally snows here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 12:27:21 AM
0z no bueno.... 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 04, 2018, 06:17:48 AM
Tennessee snow dome activated.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/24z9hy0.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 06:37:36 AM
Tennessee snow dome activated.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/24z9hy0.jpg)
unfortunetly. Thatís bout how it will play out ....while Kentucky and north arkansas ... and North Carolina get shelled.... Iím going enjoy my 33 degree rain appears .... yuck....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 06:53:11 AM
Tennessee snow dome activated.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/24z9hy0.jpg)

Heaviest snow band shifting further to the north.  Even southern KY from BG to London now getting just 1-2."  But I would take that over nuttin'!
NC and VA seem to be consistently in the sweet spot.  Maybe I need to pull out the ole Jeep and head up I-81. 

And what's up with all the heavy snow in Arkansas that stops at the Mississippi River?  Maybe the magical snow dome is real.   ::wow::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 06:57:14 AM
Heaviest snow band shifting further to the north.  Even southern KY from BG to London now getting just 1-2."  But I would take that over nuttin'!
NC and VA seem to be consistently in the sweet spot.  Maybe I need to pull out the ole Jeep and head up I-81. 

And what's up with all the heavy snow in Arkansas that stops at the Mississippi River?  Maybe the magical snow dome is real.   ::wow::
its called the pyramid along the ms river ... SNOW DOME...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 07:04:15 AM
On a brighter note, NAM showing some decent snow shower action later today into early tomorrow.  Enough to at least dust the ground in places, and some Plateau areas may see a half inch or so.  NAM occasionally shows a good band of radar returns developing from upper middle TN southeastward into east TN.  If it comes to fruition, some may see a decent coating by morning. 

(http://i66.tinypic.com/24x4az9.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on December 04, 2018, 07:32:11 AM
On a brighter note, NAM showing some decent snow shower action later today into early tomorrow.  Enough to at least dust the ground in places, and some Plateau areas may see a half inch or so.  NAM occasionally shows a good band of radar returns developing from upper middle TN southeastward into east TN.  If it comes to fruition, some may see a decent coating by morning. 

(http://i66.tinypic.com/24x4az9.png)

Had a decent burst of snow as I was leaving the house this morning.  You could definitely make out tire tracks on the road.  But it wasn't doing anything once I got out of the neighborhood. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 09:09:47 AM
6z Euro EPS looks interesting.  The focus is on ATL, but looking at the I-40 corridor, one could extrapolate the chances from there.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2uiiuds.jpg)

(h/t @RyanMaue)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 04, 2018, 09:33:54 AM
I still think parts of west and middle tn especially north of I-40 are going to see some winter weather. It may not be but a inch or so, it may be more but for mid December I am not going to complain if we get a inch or 2, even though I would love a big storm and things still could change. I think Kentucky and maybe northwest tn could still do very well. But again it is still time for this too change for the better or worse. At least we have something to track that it at least in our vicinity and bears watching. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 10:23:23 AM
Euro also has a slower system that spins around for awhile, as it only drifts east.  A cold upper low spinning over us could bring a switchover to snow that models don't see this far out. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 10:25:36 AM
12z GFS keeps the status quo.  Areas N of BNA may see some slight accumulations (that transitions to liquid) but the vast majority of the state sees a 35F rain.  Maybe some wrap-around stuff as the system moves off the eastern seaboard, but that's questionable.  Western NC gets popped due to CAD processes, at least initially.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 04, 2018, 10:26:34 AM
Just for kicks and giggles, a sounding from the 12z GFS for BNA. 35 at the surface, upper air is pretty close.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/5a58qt.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 04, 2018, 10:28:15 AM
I just donít understand how that low rides the coast but weíre too warm?


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 10:29:33 AM
I just donít understand how that low rides the coast but weíre too warm?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Seasonal climatology.  It may be cold, but its not deep enough.  More transient than "set in".
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 04, 2018, 10:30:09 AM
Seasonal climatology.  It may be cold, but its not deep enough.  More transient than "set in".

Gotcha!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on December 04, 2018, 10:40:13 AM
Nice little Snow Shower now in Benton KY.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 04, 2018, 10:40:53 AM
Both the 12Z ICON and GFS are trying to pacify a good many of us with some minor accumulations Sunday night and Monday morning. I'll gladly take it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 10:51:11 AM
12Z doesn't look horrible for the northern half of TN--north of I-40.  Looks good, actually, for a system on December 8th.  It shows about 2-4 laid down during the whole system, heavier closer to KY border.  Tri-Cities looks sweet, along with western NC. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 04, 2018, 10:51:27 AM
Gotcha!


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Basically- the air mass it will encounter is a rotting or in the decay phases. As Eric said, its very much in line with climo. Now another 3-4 weeks and its game on.

BTW- after a brief warm up next week, euro weeklies go cold before Christmas and get colder into January.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Scot on December 04, 2018, 10:53:33 AM
Basically- the air mass it will encounter is a rotting or in the decay phases. As Eric said, its very much in line with climo. Now another 3-4 weeks and its game on.

BTW- after a brief warm up next week, euro weeklies go cold before Christmas and get colder into January.

A cold Christmas always feels just right!  A few flakes would make my Christmas!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 10:56:57 AM
Basically- the air mass it will encounter is a rotting or in the decay phases.

(http://img.memecdn.com/a-gross-face_o_3390021.jpg)   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 04, 2018, 11:01:24 AM
If the NAM and HRRR are to be believed, I wouldnít be shocked if someone on the Rim and, especially, on the Plateau were to see an inch of snow tonight.

These bursts are pretty intense.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 04, 2018, 11:04:55 AM
12Z doesn't look horrible for the northern half of TN--north of I-40.  Looks good, actually, for a system on December 8th.  It shows about 2-4 laid down during the whole system, heavier closer to KY border.  Tri-Cities looks sweet, along with western NC.
Yep the 12 GFS spit out 5.7 for ckv and 7.3 for Hopkinsville. Probably won't be that much but I-40 north in west and middle tn was generally 1-2 with much higher amounts going up into Kentucky. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 11:32:37 AM
Yep the 12 GFS spit out 5.7 for ckv and 7.3 for Hopkinsville. Probably won't be that much but I-40 north in west and middle tn was generally 1-2 with much higher amounts going up into Kentucky. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Those values are verbatim.  Cobb data spits out a rain/snow mix for much of the event.  Whatever accums might occur will be eaten by liquid.  It's conceivable that S KY may end up with 2-4", but I wouldn't expect much more than an inch.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/15n0ohx.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 04, 2018, 12:07:49 PM
I've felt for a few days that this is probably going to end up being a KY/Ohio-Valley special- Louisville to Cincinnati. That stretch can score in December. We shall see.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 12:11:53 PM
Switching to rain to snow and back again is better than just plain rain, I guess.  Thing is--sometimes you can switch to snow and it stays snow.  Last big one was in Feb '98 in southeast KY and the plateau of TN.  We were supposed to get a dusting of snow after a heavy rain event, and ended up with over a foot of wet snow that was not foreseen.  It went over to snow before dark, and never switched back.  The atmospheric temp profile became cold enough for all snow, and I guess that may be the problem with this system.  As Curt said, the cold is in the decaying stage by the time our storm comes through. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Scot on December 04, 2018, 12:20:37 PM
Switching to rain to snow and back again is better than just plain rain, I guess.  Thing is--sometimes you can switch to snow and it stays snow.  Last big one was in Feb '98 in southeast KY and the plateau of TN.  We were supposed to get a dusting of snow after a heavy rain event, and ended up with over a foot of wet snow that was not foreseen.  It went over to snow before dark, and never switched back.  The atmospheric temp profile became cold enough for all snow, and I guess that may be the problem with this system.  As Curt said, the cold is in the decaying stage by the time our storm comes through.
I remember that storm very well!  I was in college at Tennessee Tech at Cookeville in the computer lab studying when my roomates messaged me that I needed to get home because it was snowing.  I didn't believe them!  Barely got to the house then the power went out!  Transformer blew!  We walked out to Highway 111 and helped push cars out of ditches.  Good memories!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 12:33:47 PM
I remember that storm very well!  I was in college at Tennessee Tech at Cookeville in the computer lab studying when my roomates messaged me that I needed to get home because it was snowing.  I didn't believe them!  Barely got to the house then the power went out!  Transformer blew!  We walked out to Highway 111 and helped push cars out of ditches.  Good memories!

The plateau of TN, along with central/eastern KY was buried in heavy snow.  Power outages were widespread--similar to an ice storm.  All the while snow fell at 33-34F.  We never got below freezing through the whole event--until the end of the storm.

During the day, I remember watching it switch from rain to snow and back again countless times.  Snow would fall for 10 minutes, then it would go back to heavy rain--back and forth.  On my drive home from work (4pm) it switched to half-dollar size clumps of snow, and from that point on it was game on.  The flakes were so big and falling so fast you could hear them hitting the ground.  One of those snowstorms you never forget.  And it was not predicted--not even close.  It became a nowcast situation that lasted for 24 hours as the low pressure spun overhead. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on December 04, 2018, 12:35:19 PM
12z Euro more favorable snow wise for areas along and north of 40. Still a borderline scenario but 850s show a marked improvement.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 12:36:19 PM
12z Euro more favorable snow wise for areas along and north of 40. Still a borderline scenario but 850s show a marked improvement.
yeah. Big shift south ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Tornado 73 on December 04, 2018, 12:39:22 PM
A nice hit for NE Arkansas.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 04, 2018, 12:42:49 PM
LMK just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for southern KY for tonight. Calling for generally 1/2Ē with pockets of 1Ē+ under the heavier bands tonight.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 12:43:00 PM
 Western NC still in the sweet spot.  I think it's a given it's gonna snow there.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on December 04, 2018, 12:44:55 PM
LMAO 15" on the Euro clown map at BNA
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 04, 2018, 12:53:53 PM
Maue tweeted a gif of the 12z Euro, for those wanting to see it.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1070027792589471745 (https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1070027792589471745)

Post Merge: December 04, 2018, 12:54:42 PM
Speaking of tweets, can we embed Tweets here?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 04, 2018, 01:08:40 PM
12z Euro, what a joke  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 01:27:31 PM
Man, what's up with the normally reliable, stable Euro lately?  Did they do an update and ruin it?

I like it, though!  My backyard gets nearly 20".  Woohoo!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Woodvegas on December 04, 2018, 01:33:06 PM
12/4 12Z Euro is a big snow hit for the northern one half of TN especially northeast TN. BNA would get about 8 inches according to the clown maps but less if you look at the raw MOS data. I'd like to see the models trend about 50 more miles to the south.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 04, 2018, 01:37:43 PM
12/4 12Z Euro is a big snow hit for the northern one half of TN especially northeast TN. BNA would get about 8 inches. I'd like to see the models trend about 50 more miles to the south.

So would I. Yes the Euro was solid, but it is an outlier. Iíd feel much more confident if the models were just slightly colder.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Volduff64 on December 04, 2018, 01:42:10 PM
What links do you guys use for the Euro? 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Woodvegas on December 04, 2018, 01:43:06 PM
So would I. Yes the Euro was solid, but it is an outlier. Iíd feel much more confident if the models were just slightly colder.

Agree. We rarely score when the temp is borderline. It might end up 33 degrees with a lot of cold rain. But at least at the moment there has been some trending to the south.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 04, 2018, 01:56:00 PM
What links do you guys use for the Euro?

Go to weather.us
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 02:02:23 PM
12z Euro...

...not sure I buy it.  Goes against climatology.  It's going to be a wet snow, though, for whomever is lucky enough to be underneath the area where thermodynamics come together.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mtcards on December 04, 2018, 02:18:03 PM
Always humorous comparing official forecasts by the professional crowd to the models forecasts

Going to be interesting to see how the official forecasts are laid out now that the "darling" Euro is calling for snow and the GFS really isnt, except on the back end.

Using the normal routine, my guess is that the forecast will call for a "chance" of snow until the first flake hits the ground, at which time, the word SNOW will be entered into the forecast. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 02:23:25 PM
Per MRX:

Quote
For Saturday night and Sunday, the jet dynamic forcing for the upper
trough will produce strong omega along and just above the fronto-
genetic slope (around 500mb). Deep synoptic forcing will help cool
the vertical column with precipitation likely changing back to snow
over southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee (especially mountains),
and Smoky Mountains. Main rain (or possibly rain/snow mix) elsewhere.

For Sunday night and Monday, upper dynamics strengthens the
surface/850mb pulling the warm conveyor belt into the northern half
of the area with a deformation zone. This will keep chances of
mainly snowfall going with additional snowfall anticipated. Will
include this potential snowstorm within the HWO.

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Woodvegas on December 04, 2018, 02:29:10 PM
What links do you guys use for the Euro?

Some options are Weather.us, Stormvista, and Accuweather, all of which are pay sites.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 02:30:39 PM
12z Euro...

...not sure I buy it.  Goes against climatology.  It's going to be a wet snow, though, for whomever is lucky enough to be underneath the area where thermodynamics come together.
tend to agree with you... but last year parts Alabama and Georgia got a foot. Much further south... strange things have happen
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 02:33:57 PM
New version of the GFS currently running is nothing like the last Euro run.  Rain/snow line is deep into KY, leaving us with mostly rain save for the northeast corner at the beginning of the storm.  And even where it snows, it's not impressive.  Euro stands alone for now
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 02:40:36 PM
tend to agree with you... but last year parts Alabama and Georgia got a foot. Much further south... strange things have happen

If I remember right (which is debatable), that was an ULL and not a SLP.  Still too warm at the surface...it's close, but climo wins out.

Post Merge: December 04, 2018, 02:40:54 PM
Some options are Weather.us, Stormvista, and Accuweather, all of which are pay sites.

Weather.us is free to use.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 04, 2018, 02:45:07 PM
Looks like OHX is going with a WWA for it northeastern counties.
edit: this was either a mistake on their homepage initially or misread it
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 04, 2018, 02:45:33 PM
tend to agree with you... but last year parts Alabama and Georgia got a foot. Much further south... strange things have happen

Totally different set-up and much more cold air to work with. Below is the weather map for Dec 8th 2017 and you can click forward for the 9th.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20171208.html (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20171208.html)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 02:46:11 PM
Another thing to think bout... the energy for this system getting ready enter west coast... it s starting to get a better sample for the models to sniff out...

Post Merge: December 04, 2018, 02:48:17 PM
Totally different set-up and much more cold air to work with. Below is the weather map for Dec 7th 2017 and you can click forward for the 8th.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20171208.html (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20171208.html)
true. But I was just speaking terms of climo... Thais system has a ull lagging behind mind system ... which can create its own cold air  with dynamics ... who ever is over the deform band can and will get creamed ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 04, 2018, 02:49:27 PM
Weather.us is free to use.

Yep, their Euro maps are as detailed as you will get for free. That was a game changer.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 02:53:56 PM
Looks like OHX is going with a WWA for it northeastern counties.

I think it's just an SPS.  Unless I missed something. 

Post Merge: December 04, 2018, 02:56:38 PM
From OHX:
Quote
By Friday morning, look for moisture to begin advecting into
Middle Tennessee as an inverted trough develops from a low over
northern Mexico. As the surface low tracks to our south, there
will be abundant isentropic left, which can best be seen on the
295K & 300K isopotential temperature surfaces. The surface low
will continue eastward across the Gulf Coast throughout the
weekend, but it appears that thicknesses will stay just warm
enough for mostly rain (or at least a rain/snow mixture) until
late Sunday or Sunday night, by which time the low will be
situated just off the NC/SC coast. It will take quite a bit of
cold air advection on the occluded side of the low to get us cold
enough to switch over to all snow. By then, the deepest moisture
will have already pulled east of Middle Tennessee, with POP's
diminishing on Monday. So actual snow accumulations, based on the
current QPF and thermal structure, won't be that significant.

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 04, 2018, 03:00:43 PM
I think it's just an SPS.  Unless I missed something. 
I could swear the header on their homepage which now says SPS said WWA about 20 minutes ago. Said it down in the info as well. Looks like they fixed it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 04, 2018, 03:06:37 PM
EPS snowfall did tick southward at 12z by a good margin. Will have to see if this is a trend esp as the LP finally comes on shore for better sampling tomorrow night. Those thermals on the euro are really complicated. It has lots of 33-34 temps for most people here but the "deeper" cold air is further NW. I do think trends favor the Ozarks more so than anywhere.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 04, 2018, 03:16:11 PM
If it's heavy enough, we can receive ample snow accumulation with 34 degree temperatures.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 03:17:49 PM
If it's heavy enough, we can receive ample snow accumulation with 34 degree temperatures.

Right, but if the cold air isn't "deep" enough or the precip convective enough, the temp profile wins out and the snow transitions back to liquid and eats whatever accums may have fallen.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: EastTNWX on December 04, 2018, 04:16:15 PM
EPS snowfall did tick southward at 12z by a good margin. Will have to see if this is a trend esp as the LP finally comes on shore for better sampling tomorrow night. Those thermals on the euro are really complicated. It has lots of 33-34 temps for most people here but the "deeper" cold air is further NW. I do think trends favor the Ozarks more so than anywhere.

You might be speaking purely from your local position, but overall I would say the trends favor the Apps and NE Tennessee more than anywhere. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 04:16:50 PM
18z gfs.  South trend continues ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 04, 2018, 04:22:47 PM
ALL HAIL KING EURO, THE SOUTHERN TREND, AND AN ULL PULLING IN MORE COLD.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 04:34:42 PM
LOL.  18z GFS says "Nope.  Try again."
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: EastTNWX on December 04, 2018, 04:36:47 PM
18z gfs.  South trend continues ...

The trend continues, and things look better overall, but something isn't right with how it resolves the rain vs snow situation.  I think its climatology bias is keeping things rain vs. snow too long-at least for the eastern parts. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 04:48:57 PM
The one area all models have been consistently showing heavy snow with this system is western NC northeastward into VA.  Once in a few model runs it changes up a bit, but it's almost always there. 

I'd be hitting the grocery store now if I lived on that side of the mountains. 


Post Merge: December 04, 2018, 04:56:19 PM
The trend continues, and things look better overall, but something isn't right with how it resolves the rain vs snow situation.  I think its climatology bias is keeping things rain vs. snow too long-at least for the eastern parts.

Agree.  And it is the old GFS--about to be replaced for good reasons.   Then again, the new version seemed to almost lose the snow altogether on it's last run.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on December 04, 2018, 05:12:53 PM
The trend continues, and things look better overall, but something isn't right with how it resolves the rain vs snow situation.  I think its climatology bias is keeping things rain vs. snow too long-at least for the eastern parts.

Hint, itís rain.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 04, 2018, 05:16:04 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.

This post aged well.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: justinmundie on December 04, 2018, 05:58:56 PM
With the limited amount Iíve been looking at this, it seems pretty elevation dependent outside of the CAD regions.

Being down in bham, itís pretty interesting to see the CAD occasionally make it down this far. I suspect Iíll see some good ice events in the future.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 04, 2018, 06:16:51 PM
I remember that storm very well!  I was in college at Tennessee Tech at Cookeville in the computer lab studying when my roomates messaged me that I needed to get home because it was snowing.  I didn't believe them!  Barely got to the house then the power went out!  Transformer blew!  We walked out to Highway 111 and helped push cars out of ditches.  Good memories!
I was at Tech in 98 as well. Remember that storm well. Fun times.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 04, 2018, 06:20:43 PM
Per MRX:
Bring. It. Baby.
Northeast Tennessee. We need to score. Bigly. Lol.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 07:23:45 PM
Interesting. From little rock Klzk.  Saying their starting to detect a less of a warm nose  on models ... saying sleet to snow for northern 2 thirds state ... were they were worried with feeezing rain first ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: EastTNWX on December 04, 2018, 08:33:23 PM
The biggest issue with this storm so far has been inconsistencies between the major models.  It looks like the GFS is starting to come more in line with the Euro.  I like the way this is looking, especially for the Eastern 1/3rd and NW'ern parts of the state.  If the warm nose is even just a smidge weaker than currently modeled the Valley could be looking at a big storm. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 04, 2018, 08:41:53 PM
I will take what the new GFS FV3 at 18z just threw out there!  ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 08:55:24 PM
0z nam off to good start tonite with the 0z suits... 1041 mb high over northern Illinois... to bad just not quite in nams wheelhouse just yet... but
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 04, 2018, 08:56:19 PM
I will take what the new GFS FV3 at 18z just threw out there!  ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
It read the North of 40 memo.



(http://i64.tinypic.com/28i2hjd.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 04, 2018, 08:56:44 PM
I will take what the new GFS FV3 at 18z just threw out there!  ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Where do you view the GFS 2.0? The site I use has 12z as the latest.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 04, 2018, 09:00:51 PM
Where do you view the GFS 2.0? The site I use has 12z as the latest.


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Tropical tidbits. It comes out later than the GFS
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 09:37:46 PM
0z gfs is rolling now... ::snowman:: ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 04, 2018, 09:41:05 PM
Yeah theres still hope for all of I40 north. Imo. But its better to have lower expectations. Because remember its early December. We rarely seem to get snows this early. But we are still several days away really. Literally a slight shift could really put I40 in a good spot or take all hope of anything away.. Thats whats so fun about waiting for each model run. Ive been looking at the updates on here all day at work.

I become way less productive when this sh*t happens. I'll follow a fantasy storm all week only to lose countless minutes of my life waiting for something that isn't going to happen.

And I'm doing it again, and it's almost exam time. Curse me.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: pirates1 on December 04, 2018, 09:57:48 PM
It read the North of 40 memo.


And look the snow dome picks up in Williamson County!!
(http://i64.tinypic.com/28i2hjd.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 04, 2018, 10:12:52 PM
0z GFS looks a lot like 12z. Has about 2 inches here and 8 inches literally 20 miles north. North Arkansas is the sweet spot. It does develop a secondary disturbance that gives the north half of middle 2 to 4.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 04, 2018, 10:31:57 PM
Interesting to start watching..
NAM starting to come into play.

FWIW, 0z NAMís last 6 hours show it slightly slower than GFS...and slightly south of GFS with Rain/Snow line.

Curious to see how the 12z and 18z NAM handles this vs GFS/EURO tomorrow.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on December 04, 2018, 10:32:11 PM
Overall good trends in the globals thus far.. Euro flipped to nearly an all snow/sleet solution north of the 40 corridor with significant improvements to thermal profiles on the Canadian and modest improvements on the 0Z GFS (Mid & West TN). Disturbance taps into the RAOB network beginning tomorrow so lots of excitement and heartbreak **coughs** N.C. **coughs** ahead.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 04, 2018, 10:51:13 PM
I may have to drive up to Heber Springs, Ar. this weekend to do some trout fishing on the Little Red River. Looks like the place to be in our area.  ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 04, 2018, 11:23:31 PM
The snow algorithm on the new gfs on Tropical Tidbits needs some serious work. Loco.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 04, 2018, 11:32:04 PM
0Z GEFS Ensemble mean:
(https://i.imgur.com/F6nQcxj.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 01:27:46 AM
The 0z NAM is slower with the precip and colder at hour 84 than the 0z GFS (big cavet though that the NAM at hour 84 isnít the most reliable, just throwing it out there to see if this pattern holds the closer we get to show time!)

0z GFS temps[attachimg=1]
0z NAM temps[attachimg=2]
0z GFS precip[attachimg=3]
0z NAM precip[attachimg=4]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 04:55:23 AM
MRX this morning:

Quote
All said, confidence in that a wintry precipitation event across the
cwfa will occur is increasing
.  However as stated last night, given
that the system isn`t even being sampled by the RAOB network,
provides at least some uncertainty overall, aside from model
solution discontinuities.  Therefore confidence in timing would be
best stated as moderate, with low/moderate confidence in QPF/ptypes
and placement of such.  Beyond this system, surface high pressure
will advect into the region beneath deep upper ridging, all yielding
dry conditions through midweek.

If this system actually does produce a decent snow event for us in early December, it would be an epic beginning to winter.

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:13:59 AM
From Chris Bailey @ Ky Weather Center

(http://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Chris-3.png)

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:23:14 AM
Euro was south yesterday, and shifted north again overnight.  Until it has some consistent solutions, it's hard to be overly confident.  Hopefully, it will tick south again.  EL Nino argues for a southern track, but it's early December. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 06:29:25 AM
Latest run. New gfs. 6z.  14 inches snow little rock ... congrats... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 05, 2018, 06:31:41 AM
The EPS mean is 3 to 4 inches north of 40.

 What could go wrong ? The 84 hr NAM looks awesome.



(http://i67.tinypic.com/6ye4na.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 06:33:35 AM
MRX this morning:

If this system actually does produce a decent snow event for us in early December, it would be an epic beginning to winter.

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:13:59 AM
From Chris Bailey @ Ky Weather Center

(http://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Chris-3.png)

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:23:14 AM
Euro was south yesterday, and shifted north again overnight.  Until it has some consistent solutions, it's hard to be overly confident.  Hopefully, it will tick south again.  EL Nino argues for a southern track, but it's early December.
For MRX to continue to mention this and be somewhat confident at 4 days out says something about the potential for northeast TN. They are so conservative. Usually the last to issue anything, the last to discuss anything, and when they do it typically has pessimistic overtones. Their early discussions and confidence levels has me extremely optimistic.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 06:34:59 AM
Latest run. New gfs. 6z.  14 inches snow little rock ... congrats... lol

It's less impressive with the snow overall, especially in KY, until after the low passes by.  It almost appears a secondary upper level feature drops additional snow in KY and eastern TN late Monday into Tuesday with the parent storm offshore of the Carolinas.

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:44:24 AM
Big winners continue to be parts of Arkansas, and western NC.  Even upstate SC and northeast GA have a good shot at accumulating snow thanks to the "wedge."  Interesting to see how topography interacts with the atmosphere to create certain weather conditions.  If not for the Appalachians, there would be no "wedge." 

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 06:45:34 AM
We have a solid coating of snow this morning with light snow still falling. Tried to post a picture but the site is being stubborn.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 06:50:23 AM
For MRX to continue to mention this and be somewhat confident at 4 days out says something about the potential for northeast TN. They are so conservative. Usually the last to issue anything, the last to discuss anything, and when they do it typically has pessimistic overtones. Their early discussions and confidence levels has me extremely optimistic.


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Where you are located is almost certain to see some accumulation at some point, either with the initial system, or with the secondary upper level system the new GFS is showing.   Further down the valley, things become more murky, especially for Knoxville southwest to Chattanooga.  Knoxville has a shot, but the Euro has most of the better accumulating snow just north and east of there.  It's going to be close.  It may be one of those systems where Knoxville gets a dusting, and Morristown gets 4 inches.  I've seen it happen before. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 07:08:24 AM
Seems some national weather service offices are throwing out the euro ...  it does seem to be on island on its own... but it is the euro ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 07:26:07 AM

Greenville, SC NWS discusses secondary feature in their morning AFD:

Quote
The low is expected to intensify fairly rapidly off and slow down or
stall off the NC/VA coast Monday guidance continues to show a
reinforcing short wave diving into the trough
. This may support
enhancement of precipitation on the backside of the storm early next
week, leading to potentially additional wintry precip across the
region.

That secondary short wave may be what gives east TN it's best shot at snow, since colder air will come in with it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 07:31:41 AM
Light snow showers in downtown Knoxville this morning
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 05, 2018, 07:40:10 AM
Seems some national weather service offices are throwing out the euro ...  it does seem to be on island on its own... but it is the euro ....

Which ones?  Need documentation.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 05, 2018, 07:41:34 AM
The GFS has 2.3Ē qpf at kcha. What a shame it looks to be wasted. Could have been a record breaker with numbers like that.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 07:45:13 AM
The GFS has 2.3Ē qpf at kcha. What a shame it looks to be wasted. Could have been a record breaker with numbers like that.

No kidding, so frustrating. Meanwhile, North Carolina, the biggest snow pansies, is getting it all. As per usual!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 07:46:23 AM
Greenville NWS also mentioned some areas of the Piedmont and northern NC may see over a half inch of ice.  That much ice combined with a heavy, wet snow, is going to cause a lot of damage to trees and power lines.  I guess they can keep that part of it.


Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 07:52:30 AM
The GFS has 2.3Ē qpf at kcha. What a shame it looks to be wasted. Could have been a record breaker with numbers like that.

I would be happy if we could just get half of this to fall as snow.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/10fo0bc.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 05, 2018, 07:52:44 AM
Greenville NWS also mentioned some areas of the Piedmont and northern NC may see over a half inch of ice.  That much ice combined with a heavy, wet snow, is going to cause a lot of damage to trees and power lines.  I guess they can keep that part of it.


Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 07:52:30 AM
I would be happy if we could just get half of this to fall as snow.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/10fo0bc.gif)

CAD, FTW.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 08:08:02 AM
I guess today's runs of the GFS/Euro will either keep hope alive, or cut it off at the knees.  Here's hoping the Snow Miser finds a generous streak for us Southerners.

(https://moviewriternyu.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/snow-miser.jpg)

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on December 05, 2018, 08:31:12 AM
Almost two inches of snow on the ground here this morning...I guess it is officially winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 08:40:00 AM
Almost two inches of snow on the ground here this morning...I guess it is officially winter.

Jamestown reported 1.5Ē this morning, so definitely an overachieving snow for those of you on the Plateau!

We are between .25Ē-.50Ē. To me any snow before Christmas is an extra bonus!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 08:48:06 AM
Snow over here was variable.  A dusting at the house, nothing at work, and reports from fellow employees of nearly an inch from Dandridge to the north/east.  Glancing at the radar, you can see why.  "Clumps" of snow showers drifting through, while some see nothing.


(http://i65.tinypic.com/2myd7qs.gif)

Where the snow comes down--it's pretty intense.  Enough to reduce visibility.
 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 08:49:49 AM
12z NAM gives Memphis a nice sleetfest. From looking at the way it is shaping up at the end of its run, looks like a nice event shaping up for west TN.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 08:54:52 AM
Where you are located is almost certain to see some accumulation at some point, either with the initial system, or with the secondary upper level system the new GFS is showing.   Further down the valley, things become more murky, especially for Knoxville southwest to Chattanooga.  Knoxville has a shot, but the Euro has most of the better accumulating snow just north and east of there.  It's going to be close.  It may be one of those systems where Knoxville gets a dusting, and Morristown gets 4 inches.  I've seen it happen before.
Yeah. I feel we have a decent shot of accumulating snow, primarily from the system coming in behind the surface low. But, still could get accumulations from both. If so, weíll score big. I live about 10 miles NE of Morristown. I work in Kingsport. I keep telling my co-workers they need to be prepared to get several inches. One fellow co-worker lives in SW VA, one near Mountain City, Tn. I told them both that double digit snow is very possible for them. They basically laughed at me. Hardly any mention of this weekendís system around here right now. I suspect it to ramp up this afternoon.

On another note, we had a light dusting this morning. Snowing off and on this morning. Hopefully this is an appetizer to something bigger. Lol.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on December 05, 2018, 08:59:08 AM
Oooh Ö Mother Nature is shedding a bit of dandruff on MTSU right now.  I will need snow tires if this keeps up for about a century.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 09:07:44 AM
Yeah. I feel we have a decent shot of accumulating snow, primarily from the system coming in behind the surface low. But, still could get accumulations from both. If so, weíll score big. I live about 10 miles NE of Morristown. I work in Kingsport. I keep telling my co-workers they need to be prepared to get several inches. One fellow co-worker lives in SW VA, one near Mountain City, Tn. I told them both that double digit snow is very possible for them. They basically laughed at me. Hardly any mention of this weekendís system around here right now. I suspect it to ramp up this afternoon.

On another note, we had a light dusting this morning. Snowing off and on this morning. Hopefully this is an appetizer to something bigger. Lol.


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Mtn. City is sitting pretty for a major winter event.   Hopefully, you'll be the one laughing next week.   ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 05, 2018, 09:08:39 AM
Definitely picked up a dusting in the downtown.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 10:22:01 AM
Snow coming down hard 'n heavy east of Sevierville now. 

(http://i68.tinypic.com/330g086.gif)

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2wf2rdy.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 10:27:00 AM
Getting a dusting on grassy areas and mulch in Knoxville.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 10:34:45 AM
Wow, heavy burst turned the ground white in a matter of 5 minutes.  Back to light flurries now.   Hope we see more of that come Sunday/Monday at some point!! 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 05, 2018, 10:43:51 AM
12z NAM gives Memphis a nice sleetfest. From looking at the way it is shaping up at the end of its run, looks like a nice event shaping up for west TN.


NAM for the win!


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 10:47:04 AM
Both the GFS and CMC say our best bet to see any accumulation will be the leftover/backaround snow that develops late Monday into Tuesday. Both show ~1-3Ē statewide with that moisture.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 05, 2018, 11:03:29 AM
Both the GFS and CMC say our best bet to see any accumulation will be the leftover/backaround snow that develops late Monday into Tuesday. Both show ~1-3Ē statewide with that moisture.

(http://memeshappen.com/media/created/you-can-not-resist-the-power-of-the-back-side-meme-48380.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 11:05:38 AM
The new GFS has the low in freakin Tampa, yet we still have temps in the mid 30s...::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 11:10:10 AM
The new GFS has the low in freakin Tampa, yet we still have temps in the mid 30s...::bangingheadintowall::

Did you mean Talahassee? Tampa is way south of the low on the 12Z GFS

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 11:11:21 AM
The new GFS has the low in freakin Tampa, yet we still have temps in the mid 30s...::bangingheadintowall::

Oh I see it now! On the FV3 run
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 11:17:06 AM
Did you mean Talahassee? Tampa is way south of the low on the 12Z GFS

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 11:11:21 AM
Oh I see it now! On the FV3 run

Yeah. New as in the FV3 version. My bad!

Very frustrating if that is what ends up occurring.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 05, 2018, 12:20:45 PM
Got about an 1/2 of an inch of snow this morning.  I have been following this system somewhat but I have a lot on my plate.  Hopefully, I can examine this system in greater detail this evening. 

With the system coming on to shore we should begin to know what we are dealing with at least with the initial portion of it with the evening runs. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 05, 2018, 12:24:12 PM
Not looking good for the home team on the 12z runs. Well unless we want to jump on the NAM train.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 12:29:12 PM
Not looking good for the home team on the 12z runs. Well unless we want to jump on the NAM train.
buisy at work. But heard euro did shift south some today12z...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2018, 12:34:54 PM
buisy at work. But heard euro did shift south some today12z...

Looks like even if it were to shift 100 mikes south (which it didnít)- thermals are awful. It finally changes rain to snow showers on the backend Sunday night.  The bulk of the precip statewide minus the mountains is rain.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 05, 2018, 12:46:50 PM
AM AFD from HUN:
Quote
The forecast becomes increasingly complicated as we head into Friday
night, with most guidance now suggesting that an increasing pressure
gradient between the arctic high to our north and a developing
surface wave along the TX coast will allow the leading edge the
colder airmass (poised to our immediate north) to be advected
southward into at least the northern portion of our FA. This will
occur simultaneously with further strengthening of lift and moisture
advection aloft, raising concern for snow and perhaps some sleet
along the northeastern periphery of the expansive stratiform
precipitation shield. This would most likely occur from the TN-AL
border region northward, where a blend of model guidance suggests
that some light accumulating wintry precip will be possible during
the morning hours on Saturday
. As a result, we have increased probs
for snow in our local weather grids, and included some accumulations.......

During the day on Sunday, it appears as if the initial mid-level low
will become absorbed by a stronger northern stream wave dropping
rapidly across the Northern Plains Saturday night. The physical
mechanisms responsible for the early weekend precipitation will
weaken as this occurs, and we expect widespread rainfall to slowly
end from SW-to-NE on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the clipper system
is predicted to undergo rather substantial deepening as dives
southeastward into the TN Valley Sunday night. This system will
undoubtedly provide intense upward vertical motions across the
region, as suggested by 100-140 m 12-hr 500-mb height falls depicted
in the GFS/ECMWF models, and should provide another round of
precipitation during the early morning hours on Monday. Thermal
profiles suggest this will be entirely snow
, and probs for snow in
our weather grids have been increased accordingly. Accumulating snow
is becoming a more likely scenario with this event
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 12:49:23 PM
AM AFD from HUN:
interesting from them....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 01:00:05 PM
Euro not good.

F***** North Carolina gets it ALL
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 01:35:51 PM
Euro said: thank u, next

Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2018, 01:49:00 PM
Euro said: thank u, next

So did the euro control. I would bet thereís some decent token snow showers Sunday and Monday but real accumulating snow outside the mts isnít likely per this model. North central Arkansas is going to get clocked. Iím curious on the NC part of the storm how much is really mixed precip and pure snow. I would bet with CAD itís more mix to rain.

The EPS looks good but there have to be some outliers in there skewing the data more favorably. We arenít too far from where ensembles arenít useful vs globals, NAM(not just yet) and the SREF
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 05, 2018, 01:51:18 PM
Euro looks pretty good for people over 2000í. I bet the plateau and area mountains do quite well with this. Could be some people surprised for sure. Of course western NC is getting 2í+. No surprise there.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 02:02:41 PM
Man, the EPS does look solid...I want to believe. Haha

Shows, generally, 1Ē (closer to the Alabama border)- 5Ē (areas bordering KY) with higher totals on the Plateau.


James Spann posted the EPS accumulation map on his Twitter page. He must have the okay to do that, but I donít feel comfortable posting it here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 02:05:32 PM
Upper Northeast Tennessee still seems to be on the ďyouíre getting a foot of snow/youíre getting an inch of rain with backside snow-showers amounting to an inch or soĒ line. A slight difference in the thermal profile could shift it to one side or the other. Itís going to be oh so close to something big here. Good thing is short range models starting to come into play.

I just have a feeling someone is going to get a surprise more than a letdown based on forecasts. I say that because no one is hyping it up in this region. So a letdown isnít possible. But a surprise event is possible because theyíre not saying much. I know the local tv mets are forecasting based of what has been modeled over the past few days. But, thatís been a mix to predominantly rain event.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 05, 2018, 02:14:11 PM
Man, the EPS does look solid...I want to believe. Haha

Shows, generally, 1Ē (closer to the Alabama border)- 5Ē (areas bordering KY) with higher totals on the Plateau.


James Spann posted the EPS accumulation map on his Twitter page. He must have the okay to do that, but I donít feel comfortable posting it here.
Yep I seen that, looking at Euro ensembles they look good also. We'll just have to wait and see how the models handle things the next few days. Getting into Nam range also. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 02:15:49 PM
Yep I seen that, looking at Euro ensembles they look good also. We'll just have to wait and see how the models handle things the next few days. Getting into Nam range also. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Given the NAMís track record...it is going to be hard for me to believe the NAM until the event is underway. 😂
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 05, 2018, 02:20:23 PM
Given the NAMís track record...it is going to be hard for me to believe the NAM until the event is underway. 😂
You sir are correct.  ::rofl:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 05, 2018, 02:20:36 PM
The EPS looks good but there have to be some outliers in there skewing the data more favorably. We arenít too far from where ensembles arenít useful vs globals, NAM(not just yet) and the SREF

The Memphis to Nashville corridor and the TN Valley of east TN from Knoxville to Chatty were strikingly similar on most of the individual members. I clicked thru them and grouped them into three categories of 4" plus, under 4", and no accumulation. What I got was:
7 members with 0
33 with under 4"
10 with 4"+
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 02:26:12 PM
Given the NAMís track record...it is going to be hard for me to believe the NAM until the event is underway. 😂
the nam is actually pretty good within 48 hours .... good with thermals etc
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2018, 02:39:25 PM
The Memphis to Nashville corridor and the TN Valley of east TN from Knoxville to Chatty were strikingly similar on most of the individual members. I clicked thru them and grouped them into three categories of 4" plus, under 4", and no accumulation. What I got was:
7 members with 0
33 with under 4"
10 with 4"+

Lol Iím glad you do the same thing. Itís a little mind boggling going through 50 members
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 05, 2018, 02:44:24 PM
Lol Iím glad you do the same thing. Itís a little mind boggling going through 50 members
I did as well. LOL!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 02:49:57 PM
So. It begins... winter storm watches out for both north Texas and most Oklahoma ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 05, 2018, 02:54:25 PM
Lol Iím glad you do the same thing. Itís a little mind boggling going through 50 members
The weather.us model charts is a game changer for viewing the Euro maps.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 03:08:32 PM
Predictions:

Memphis: Dusting
Dyersburg: 1"
Jackson: Dusting to 0.25"
Clarksville: 2" + icy mix

Pulaski: No accumulation
Murfreesboro: 0.25"
Nashville: 0.5"
Hendersonville: 0.75 to 1"
Cookeville: 1.5" plus icing
Crossville: 2" plus icing

Chattanooga: Dusting
Cleveland: Dusting
Knoxville: 0.5"
Gatlinburg: 6-10"
Morristown: 1.5-2"
Tri-Cities: 5-8"


Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 04:00:09 PM
It's painful always riding the precipitation fence between north and south.  Will it, won't it, will it, won't it?  Heck, just give me some cold clippers with 2-3" of white powder and I'll be happy.  At least with cold clippers you know what's going to fall, even if it's measured with your pinky.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 04:00:59 PM
18z GFS gives my location ~1-1.25Ē of rain with temps 33-36F throughout the event. I need Tums.


EDIT: HAHA JK, make that 1.5Ē of precip.  >:(
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: justinmundie on December 05, 2018, 04:02:08 PM
With the limited amount Iíve been looking at this, it seems pretty elevation dependent outside of the CAD regions.

Being down in bham, itís pretty interesting to see the CAD occasionally make it down this far. I suspect Iíll see some good ice events in the future.

Bump

I will be in Nashville this weekend, so thereís basically zero chance of anything in mid TN. Sorry folks. ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 05, 2018, 04:02:24 PM
18z GFS gives my location ~1-1.25Ē of rain with temps 33-36F throughout the event. I need Tums.

But it's the 18Z...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 04:07:52 PM
18Z GFS that's just running gets interesting for eastern areas.  Shows initial rain, and then a switch over to snow pretty early on--mainly for Knoxville east.  Some pretty decent amounts of white showing up. 

EDIT:  It appears as the parent low moves to our southeast, a northeast wind develops bringing colder air down the valley from sub-freezing areas in VA and NC.  This doesn't happen often, but sometimes when there is a strong CAD east of the Apps, it can bring colder air down the eastern TN valley.  Who knows if this will occur, but it does keep hope alive. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 05, 2018, 04:49:32 PM
18Z GFS that's just running gets interesting for eastern areas.  Shows initial rain, and then a switch over to snow pretty early on--mainly for Knoxville east.  Some pretty decent amounts of white showing up. 

EDIT:  It appears as the parent low moves to our southeast, a northeast wind develops bringing colder air down the valley from sub-freezing areas in VA and NC.  This doesn't happen often, but sometimes when there is a strong CAD east of the Apps, it can bring colder air down the eastern TN valley.  Who knows if this will occur, but it does keep hope alive.
12Z (and several runs before that) also shows a NNE to NE wind for the duration of the event here. Normally that means game on down here, but apparently there just isn't enough cold air available.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 05, 2018, 04:50:25 PM
To be honest the GFS has been really consistent. It has had the heavy snow within 30 miles of me run after run. Of course there have been slight variations but it has been rock solid.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 04:53:38 PM
The Euro has had the most difficulty converging on a solution.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 05:00:02 PM
12Z (and several runs before that) also shows a NNE to NE wind for the duration of the event here. Normally that means game on down here, but apparently there just isn't enough cold air available.

That could be.  Normally when a low rides the Gulf in winter there's always a northeast wind blowing down the valley supplying us with enough cold for frozen precip.  I guess it being early December, and no strong Polar high bringing a fresh supply of cold, could be the difference with this one.

Who knows what might happen during the actual storm.  There could be some good surprises.  It's a borderline event, and there's almost always surprises when it's that close.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2018, 05:01:17 PM
but apparently there just isn't enough cold air available.

I do believe you hit the nail on the head for this event west of the apps.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 05:46:16 PM
18z FV3 GFS really knocks down the temperatures. A fluke? We'll find out at midnight when the 00Z runs show up.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 05, 2018, 05:49:47 PM
At this point this end of the state will have to ride the NAM and new GFS off the cliff.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 05:58:53 PM
I dont like the new GFS it seems to be super aggressive with everything. But i do like the trends. Also it shows like a sold 8+ for most of Tn but keep in mind thats 10-1 ratio when it will be more like 7-1 and also there will be a lot more sleet i feel vs snow for a lot of Tn outside east Tn. But like you said the main thing to take from it was the down tick in temps.

It's definitely overdone. Mostly what I am looking at are the temps.
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 06:13:02 PM
18z FV3 GFS lol
12+ IMBY. Iíll cash out now, thanks.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181206/0fede46f8150407b6d7ee65ad75336d2.jpg)


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2018, 06:23:35 PM
The tropical tidbits snowfall map for the gfs 2.0 is seriously flawed. It was last year too. I wouldnít take anything it shows as bank. It shows mixed precip as snow accumulation- nope.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 06:25:14 PM
18z FV3 GFS lol
12+ IMBY. Iíll cash out now, thanks.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181206/0fede46f8150407b6d7ee65ad75336d2.jpg)


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That's the new GFS??   ::)

Less snow in Johnson City than Knoxville.  Lawd, the world's been turned upside down.

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:27:44 PM
The tropical tidbits snowfall map for the gfs 2.0 is seriously flawed. It was last year too. I wouldnít take anything it shows as bank. It shows mixed precip as snow accumulation- nope.


Ah, ok. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 06:41:33 PM
That's the new GFS??   ::)

Less snow in Johnson City than Knoxville.  Lawd, the world's been turned upside down.

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:27:44 PM

Ah, ok.
think a lot of us would .... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 06:42:12 PM
I checked V3 on this site.
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/)

Made some sense of the snow totals.  As the old GFS showed, the precipitation changes to snow early on in eastern areas--mid way through the system.  It's seen as a heavy, wet snow by the model and piles on a lot of accumulation.  But is it actually a mix?  Also, V3 shows an additional round of snow with the secondary short wave.  Its fairly widespread and gives many in mid/east TN additional accumulation. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 05, 2018, 07:50:14 PM
Snow model disclaimer:

While there is a possibility that some areas could see significant winter weather with major impacts (particularly parts of NE TN, SE KY, SW VA, and W NC) and at least a fighting chance for many of us we need to use caution with snowfall maps. 

The following needs to be considered
- The tropical tidbits model shows any mix falling as snow
- Models assume that all precipitation that falls will accumulate on the ground and doesn't factor in ground temperatures or compaction. 
- Models assume a 10:1 ratio many times


Often times it is advised to half the amounts shown on models due to these factors.  With that being said you can take the snow values at face value or even greater if banding is expected as models underestimate rates in deformation bands or in any situation where convective bands are possible.   The caveat there is that those values will be localized and there will be winners and losers. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 05, 2018, 09:02:22 PM
I am coming home from the Sierras tomorrow. It nuked here today, so I will bring the vibe back with me. Focus one one area, which mine are thermals. Its going to be interesting to see what a little elevation does with this system. A trip to the hometown mountains look in order, the higher elevations are going to do quite well it looks like
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 05, 2018, 09:17:50 PM
0z NAM anyone ?


(http://i65.tinypic.com/11r3fvn.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 09:18:07 PM
0z NAM. Iíll cash out now. Thanks
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 09:27:00 PM
0z NAM. Yessa. Bring that baby home to the entire state.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on December 05, 2018, 09:37:05 PM
That's a Home Run for most everybody on here. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 09:39:28 PM
almost the whole entire state of Tennessee just got NAM D...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 09:41:30 PM
Not to be Debbie Downer, but I do want to stress it is the 84th hour of the NAM...make of that as you like.

I will say, the NAM has been consistently colder than any other model ever since this system came into our range this time yesterday.

The 3km, at the end of its run at hour 60, is lined up perfectly with the 12km NAM at the same timeframe. So that is good to see.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 09:46:02 PM
Not to be Debbie Downer, but I do want to stress it is the 84th hour of the NAM...make of that as you like.

I will say, the NAM has been consistently colder than any other model ever since this system came into our range this time yesterday.
Booo!!! Lol


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 09:48:32 PM
WE need the gfs to get of its a$$ and throw us a bone.... >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 09:53:11 PM
The temp profiles on the GFS make no sense.

At hour 60 it has us at 32F

At hour 66 we jump all the way up to 39F

At hour 72 we fall back down to 34F

WTF GFS
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 09:57:25 PM
The temp profiles on the GFS make no sense.

At hour 60 it has us at 32F

At hour 66 we jump all the way up to 39F

At hour 72 we fall back down to 34F

WTF GFS
there is not one model showing that kind of a warm nose.... don't make sense
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 10:02:11 PM
At hour 60 I have a temp/DP spread of 32/25

At hour 66 the temp jumps to 38 and DP goes to 29

At hour 72, I assume wetbulbing takes hold as our temp plummets  to 34 and DP climbs to 32


If that was to happen I would throw my phone through the living room TV.

The radical temp jump is even higher for areas of eastern KY. Some jump 10 degrees in that 6 hour window. Miami FL goes up 11 and one location in Cuba rises 18 degrees from 12z Sunday to 18z Sunday!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 05, 2018, 10:07:56 PM
Sigh, better have plenty of phones available and TV's ::lookaround::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on December 05, 2018, 10:19:02 PM
What your take on the GFS 00 and CMC 00 Charles?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 10:28:04 PM
The GFS has locked on a solution for a solid week and isnít budging. Iíve never seen it hold so steady for so many runs. It has varied very slightly over the past 5 days or so. Unbelievable.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 06, 2018, 05:37:07 AM
GFS V3 still holds out hope for north middle TN over to eastern TN from Knoxville east.  Southeast KY wins. Tri-Cities scores, but I don't want to talk about my close neighbor, western NC.    ::bangingheadintowall::

Most of the snow falls with the secondary system still being showing by the GFS.  With the first system, much of what falls is liquid, but it appears a quick switchover to heavy, wet snow is still possible for parts of eastern areas (east of Knox).  Sunday will be interesting.  At least I'll be home and can check my temperature every 5 minutes.   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: pirates1 on December 06, 2018, 05:57:00 AM
Should the translation be donít hold out on that three day weekend (Williamson County)?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 06, 2018, 06:08:49 AM
The latest Canadian, Euro and NAM all showing at least 6Ē+ IMBY. Euro and Canadian showing about 10-12Ē.

GFS only showing 1-2Ē. I think Iím leaning towards the GFS.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 06, 2018, 07:01:30 AM
Latest Euro and GFS have cut way back on snow for northern Arkansas.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 06, 2018, 07:08:01 AM
The latest Canadian, Euro and NAM all showing at least 6Ē+ IMBY. Euro and Canadian showing about 10-12Ē.

GFS only showing 1-2Ē. I think Iím leaning towards the GFS.


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I think this will be a nowcasting situation on Sunday.  Many areas could suddenly switch to heavy snow and it may stay as snow.  So close--and east TN has so many "micro-climates" that come into play with all the valleys, ridges and mountains.

NAM shows most of the east TN Valley in the upper 30's Sunday morning, but dropping slowly during the day as a northeast wind kicks in.  Even Knoxville ends the day slightly below freezing.   Tri-Cities drops from 37 to the upper 20's fairly quickly during the day.  What will be falling?  Sleet, freezing rain, snow?  All the above?  Will it switch to snow before we even get down to freezing?  Going to be a fun day to watch, whatever happens.  Just hope by Monday most here on the board have a reason to celebrate. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 06, 2018, 07:12:01 AM
To avoid confusion, do you all mind to post discussions about the upcoming threat in the thread I created this morning? Thanks!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 06, 2018, 07:17:28 AM
To avoid confusion, do you all mind to post discussions about the upcoming threat in the thread I created this morning? Thanks!

I'm so wound up over a possible snow, I may start posting in the summer thread, accidently.   ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 07, 2018, 10:21:50 AM
That bowling bowl that has been showing up at the end of the last few Euro runs have me....interested.  ::pondering::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 07, 2018, 10:23:35 AM
That bowling bowl that has been showing up at the end of the last few Euro runs have me....interested.  ::pondering::
I havenít even been looking past Monday lol. I need to look at that.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 07, 2018, 11:07:14 AM
That bowling bowl that has been showing up at the end of the last few Euro runs have me....interested.  ::pondering::
yeah. Me too... now since I looked at euro longer range .... like see center the slp 100
Miles further south... but holy Jesus Batman... what system...

Post Merge: December 07, 2018, 12:53:36 PM
Wow. Euro sure going be extremely active late next week  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 07, 2018, 07:04:56 PM
yeah. Me too... now since I looked at euro longer range .... like see center the slp 100
Miles further south... but holy Jesus Batman... what system...

Post Merge: December 07, 2018, 12:53:36 PM
Wow. Euro sure going be extremely active late next week  ::coffee::

I thought we were supposes to  ::blowtorch:: for a while after this weekend's system?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 07, 2018, 07:26:51 PM
It does look like that my Mid to Late December blowtorch is going to be more of a relaxation of the pattern.

There are signs that a strat warming event is may begin to set up during our relaxation, I don't know if I would call it a full torch.  If that is the case with a potential +PNA and El-Nino Climatology, winter could deal quite a bit of damage (fun for most of us) across the Eastern USA in January-February.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 07, 2018, 09:28:28 PM
It does look like that my Mid to Late December blowtorch is going to be more of a relaxation of the pattern.

There are signs that a strat warming event is may begin to set up during our relaxation, I don't know if I would call it a full torch.  If that is the case with a potential +PNA and El-Nino Climatology, winter could deal quite a bit of damage (fun for most of us) across the Eastern USA in January-February.

I'm impressed with the number/strength of storms showing up--one right after the other.  All we need is more cold air, and we are in business.  Jan-Feb may be the winter we've all been waiting for.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 08, 2018, 11:09:49 AM
Looks like another system for late next week with marginal temps.

(https://i.imgur.com/vPZJN5t.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2018, 11:20:05 AM
Looks like another system for late next week with marginal temps.

(https://i.imgur.com/vPZJN5t.gif)
yeah  the euro is very bullish...  we need some good cold air source  we be in buisness
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on December 08, 2018, 11:40:47 AM
I don't know if any of you guys watch Game of Thrones, but this is all I could see with the new season 8 trailer.

(https://i.imgur.com/ufHRyTY.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2018, 11:44:07 AM
I don't know if any of you guys watch Game of Thrones, but this is all I could see with the new season 8 trailer.

(https://i.imgur.com/ufHRyTY.jpg)
good to be on the north side ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 08, 2018, 11:54:10 AM
Looks like another system for late next week with marginal temps.

(https://i.imgur.com/vPZJN5t.gif)

A'int no way. Way too warm.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2018, 12:10:13 PM
Looks like another system for late next week with marginal temps.

(https://i.imgur.com/vPZJN5t.gif)
fwiw ... the ukie model showing major snow storm for midsouth. Hour 138.

Post Merge: December 08, 2018, 12:35:21 PM
Euro running now. Clearly see the big bowling ball digging down in Texas hour 120... could be interesting setup. Late next week weekend ...

Post Merge: December 08, 2018, 12:38:04 PM
Holy cow euro12z next week late  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2018, 01:42:12 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181209/83217c0d1d00012a32527fa34e87ce19.jpg)

Gfs Christmas Day. Book it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 09, 2018, 02:11:37 PM
It would be awesome to have some winter weather around Christmas and New Year's. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 09, 2018, 03:42:34 PM
I went to meet my granddaughterís other grandparents in Kingston Springs.  It is crazy because every thing is covered in ice here in Dickson. And there is a sharp line on  interstate 40 cutting off the ice right before Kingston Springs. Amazing that 300ft more in elevation made that much of a difference.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 09, 2018, 04:52:17 PM
It would be awesome to have some winter weather around Christmas and New Year's.

That would be awesome!


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: lyngo on December 09, 2018, 06:33:25 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2w5lvh4.png)

Like the late Sam Cooke said.."Bring it on home"!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 09, 2018, 09:03:13 PM
Major cool-down in store for Christmas  8) Hopefully a statewide winter storm will accompany it.

This time, it's Middle, Southern Middle and Chattanooga's turn.

Post Merge: December 09, 2018, 09:04:35 PM
Quote
Like the late Sam Cooke said.."Bring it on home"!

His death was sketchy.... I think he was set up.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2018, 01:33:43 PM
Boy... to bad we donít have a nice source of fresh cold air to tap.... euro keeps spitting out big bowling balls...  nice systems ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 10, 2018, 03:13:27 PM
Boy... to bad we donít have a nice source of fresh cold air to tap.... euro keeps spitting out big bowling balls...  nice systems ...

Nice low tracks, bowling ball lows, hopefully the pattern repeats in a month or so.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2018, 03:16:07 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181210/21bf9b439d45dd38b7dc52f8f3898d4f.jpg)

Euro seasonal for Dec-Feb. Hope that works out
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2018, 03:38:54 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181210/21bf9b439d45dd38b7dc52f8f3898d4f.jpg)

Euro seasonal for Dec-Feb. Hope that works out
if that does pan out... we are going to be in business big time ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on December 10, 2018, 04:06:22 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181210/21bf9b439d45dd38b7dc52f8f3898d4f.jpg)

Euro seasonal for Dec-Feb. Hope that works out

Whatís it showing? Heavily below average temps?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2018, 04:16:39 PM
Look at nam 18z hour 84... heavy snow Texas Oklahoma ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on December 10, 2018, 04:23:32 PM
How confident are we in the washout for this upcoming weekend?  I'm wanting to get some hammock camping done up at Big South Fork, but don't really want to have to swim to do it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 10, 2018, 04:27:41 PM
Whatís it showing? Heavily below average temps?

It is showing the heights.  The reds are + heights which equal higher pressure and the blue are lower heights which are lower pressures.  This model suggests ridging in the Western USA/Canada or a -EPO/+PNA which is good for us and ridging in Greenland or an -AO and potentially an -NAO which is good for us as well.   

All of that with a fairly active subtropical jet would equal good times for our area and pretty much the entirety of the Southeast, Northeast, and Southern portions of the Midwest.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 10, 2018, 05:24:27 PM
A quick news break to pass along Voyager 2 just left our Solar System, or heliopause, to join it's twin, Voyager 1, in interstellar space.  Launched in 1977 for those who were around back then.

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/nasas-voyager-2-has-left-solar-system-second-earth-made-object-reach-interstellar-space-787632 (https://www.ibtimes.co.in/nasas-voyager-2-has-left-solar-system-second-earth-made-object-reach-interstellar-space-787632)

We now return you to your regularly scheduled program already in progress. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on December 10, 2018, 05:39:04 PM
How confident are we in the washout for this upcoming weekend?  I'm wanting to get some hammock camping done up at Big South Fork, but don't really want to have to swim to do it.

Whatís your setup? I moved exclusively to hammocks a few years ago after getting my tent soaked. Last year got 3 inches in an hour and I was dry as a bone in the hammock. I tend to geek out over hammock setups.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 10, 2018, 06:56:00 PM
Look at nam 18z hour 84... heavy snow Texas Oklahoma ...

And rain for us.  Hard to find anything frozen when the temp is in the mid-40s.

But the GooFuS brings back the Christmas Day storm.  *yawns*
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2018, 07:05:37 PM
And rain for us.  Hard to find anything frozen when the temp is in the mid-40s.

But the GooFuS brings back the Christmas Day storm.  *yawns*

Time to start a Christmas Snowstorm thread.... Where's Mr. Wonderful when you need him?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2018, 07:27:15 PM
The way the experts talk ... you think the second cometh of the ice age is coming soon .... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2018, 08:14:25 PM
Kinda wonder if we wonít see a freezing fog advisory later tonight.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 10, 2018, 08:35:42 PM
Kinda wonder if we wonít see a freezing fog advisory later tonight.
Was just wondering the same thing. Apparently several north Alabama counties are on a two hour delay in the morning.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2018, 08:59:38 PM
Pacific Northwest is getting blasted with precipitation through Christmas. I'll bet the skiing in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia is stellar.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2018, 09:03:49 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181211/2001bbf35c43b1165138b1bbc8ce1a8b.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 10, 2018, 09:28:15 PM
Please tell me the rain is going to end soon. I feel like Iíve moved to the PNW.

Post Merge: December 10, 2018, 09:31:27 PM
Was just wondering the same thing. Apparently several north Alabama counties are on a two hour delay in the morning.
We are here as well. Even though we havenít been below freezing since the middle of last week. We delayed this morning also. I couldnít tell you why. It was 37 degrees at 2000í this morning. Nobody in the county had ice. I understand the delays for tomorrow though. There is already fog forming and I am at 32 IMBY.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 10, 2018, 10:06:13 PM
Pacific Northwest is getting blasted with precipitation through Christmas. I'll bet the skiing in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia is stellar.

At elevation is it off the chain. Snowpack early has been had a lot of water content which has been awesome and is necessary to produce a good base. Stephens Pass and Crystal Mountain and even Mt Baker has had stellar days this year. I have been further South in the Sierras which the season has been off to a great start as of a month ago.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2018, 11:55:14 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181211/2001bbf35c43b1165138b1bbc8ce1a8b.jpg)

That's the El NiŮo we know and love.

Most of TN receives 3-4" of snowfall from mid-December through February. This means we are likely to receive about 6" of snow statewide through February 1st. If it happens, this would be the best winter we've had in several years.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 11, 2018, 04:30:04 AM
Was supposed to be in the 20's this morning, but woke up to 33 and dense fog.  Dewpoint was stubborn and didn't budge overnight.

Post Merge: December 11, 2018, 04:38:03 AM
That's the El NiŮo we know and love.

Most of TN receives 3-4" of snowfall from mid-December through February. This means we are likely to receive about 6" of snow statewide through February 1st. If it happens, this would be the best winter we've had in several years.

This pattern is ripe for more overproducing snowstorms, as western NC just witnessed.  It's very possible we'll see more of those, and one could have a target set on Big Orange Nation. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on December 11, 2018, 08:36:12 AM

Whatís your setup? I moved exclusively to hammocks a few years ago after getting my tent soaked. Last year got 3 inches in an hour and I was dry as a bone in the hammock. I tend to geek out over hammock setups.

I just moved to a ENO doublenest this fall, had been using a single Yukon outfitters.  I have some cheap poly tree straps from Amazon, but they are rock solid and don't stretch at all.  I have some Atlas straps that I don't use that came with my ENO.  I use a Chill Gorilla tarp, it's huge like 10x10 or 10x12.  I'd actually like to go to a bit smaller one, as this one is pretty heavy.  I've got some new quilts coming from a store on Etsy that I hope to try this weekend.  Let me know if you're interested and I can send you a link! 

As for staying dry, I've never gotten wet in my hammock either.  It's all about how you pitch your tarp, I think. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 11, 2018, 08:37:30 AM
At elevation is it off the chain.

LOL, off the chain? Haven't heard that phrase in a while. Takes me back a few years.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 11, 2018, 08:37:44 AM
That's the El NiŮo we know and love.

Most of TN receives 3-4" of snowfall from mid-December through February. This means we are likely to receive about 6" of snow statewide through February 1st. If it happens, this would be the best winter we've had in several years.
I got right at 11 inches in 2 snows within a week last year. That's all we got for the year but it beats 6 inches easy. But I do like that it is showing Tennessee as a whole receiving snowfall. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on December 11, 2018, 09:05:53 AM
I just moved to a ENO doublenest this fall, had been using a single Yukon outfitters.  I have some cheap poly tree straps from Amazon, but they are rock solid and don't stretch at all.  I have some Atlas straps that I don't use that came with my ENO.  I use a Chill Gorilla tarp, it's huge like 10x10 or 10x12.  I'd actually like to go to a bit smaller one, as this one is pretty heavy.  I've got some new quilts coming from a store on Etsy that I hope to try this weekend.  Let me know if you're interested and I can send you a link! 

As for staying dry, I've never gotten wet in my hammock either.  It's all about how you pitch your tarp, I think.

Nice. Iím in a Dutchware 11í with Whoopie slings, Yukon 10x12 tarp and a snugpak underquilt. Enjoy your outing this weekend!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2018, 09:10:14 AM
I got right at 11 inches in 2 snows within a week last year. That's all we got for the year but it beats 6 inches easy. But I do like that it is showing Tennessee as a whole receiving snowfall. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
yeah. I got 10.5 inches from The two snows last January ... it was nice....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2018, 09:26:31 AM
LOL, off the chain? Haven't heard that phrase in a while. Takes me back a few years.

That's a Guy Fieri-ism.

"Oh man, this burger is KILLER! Mmmmm!" *voraciously devours helpless burger, smearing grease and mayonnaise over his chin* "Now THAT is off the chain!"
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 11, 2018, 09:31:16 AM
That's the El NiŮo we know and love.

Most of TN receives 3-4" of snowfall from mid-December through February. This means we are likely to receive about 6" of snow statewide through February 1st. If it happens, this would be the best winter we've had in several years.

Double digits or bust.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 11, 2018, 09:42:27 AM
I got right at 11 inches in 2 snows within a week last year. That's all we got for the year but it beats 6 inches easy. But I do like that it is showing Tennessee as a whole receiving snowfall. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

yeah. I got 10.5 inches from The two snows last January ... it was nice....

(http://i66.tinypic.com/acsc9j.jpg)

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 11, 2018, 09:46:59 AM
Most of TN receives 3-4" of snowfall from mid-December through February. This means we are likely to receive about 6" of snow statewide through February 1st. If it happens, this would be the best winter we've had in several years.

You've got your sights set way to low. The long-term snow drought has warped us into thinking that simply reaching double digits is a big year outside of elevated areas. The Nashville to Knoxville corridor is way overdue for a couple of 15" to 25" years.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2018, 10:39:35 AM
You've got your sights set way to low. The long-term snow drought has warped us into thinking that simply reaching double digits is a big year outside of elevated areas. The Nashville to Knoxville corridor is way overdue for a couple of 15" to 25" years.

I'm basing that off the Euro model, which calls for about 150% of our average through the next 46 days.

You realize most places in Tennessee receive 5-8" of snow pet winter, right? I'm basing this off of our average. I'm not trying to predict blockbuster storms. My post infers the probability of TN cities exceeding 6" of snowfall through February 1.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Cody on December 11, 2018, 11:30:39 AM
Freezing fog was a nice surprise this morning.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181211/a14d8331e8a1103c6b54deff83d6908a.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181211/9f678a70c5b44eb3e556a29425c5f0ee.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181211/d4c1ca5f43ed4f894b41b067badf7583.jpg)


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2018, 11:51:45 AM
I'm basing that off the Euro model, which calls for about 150% of our average through the next 46 days.

You realize most places in Tennessee receive 5-8" of snow pet winter, right? I'm basing this off of our average. I'm not trying to predict blockbuster storms. My post infers the probability of TN cities exceeding 6" of snowfall through February 1.
150 percent of average ... that means we stand a great chance of going way over average this winter ... way I see it ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 11, 2018, 12:11:14 PM
You realize most places in Tennessee receive 5-8" of snow pet winter, right?

Projected back 30 years from this point in time, I suspect that's about right.

A lot of us who grew up in the 1980s and earlier remember higher averages. I specifically remember when Nashville had an "average" annual snowfall of 11 inches. That was a known stat from the NWS. But, that was probably 25-30 years ago, when the average was based on the previous 30 years. That's probably where he was coming from.

Yeah- the last 30 years have been considerably more lean than the previous 30 years.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 11, 2018, 01:22:36 PM
All of us old goats remember very snowy winters in the 60s. 😉 ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 11, 2018, 01:25:37 PM
Western and South-Central KY have overall had a pretty solid decade this decade.  Last decade was horrible for Kentucky for snowfall with 2002-03 and in some places 2004-05 being the only solidly above average winters snowfall wise. 

This winter 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16 were all solid and this year should be as well if things go as planned after New Years.

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2018, 01:38:21 PM
I've been alive since '97 and lived in Tennessee for a little more than half of my life. I'm telling you, from a young person's perspective, 10" of snow during the winter season in Nashville is a good winter. In my memory, only 2002-03, 2009-10 and 2010-11 cracked that barrier while I was growing up in Nashville. Rest of them were meh. We had those cold winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 and basically nothing to show for it.

Goes to show that colder winters aren't necessarily snowier! Last year was colder than average through December and much of January, as well as March, and Knoxville had 2.5" for the season. We nearly broke that on Sunday morning when we picked up 2".

Coach B, I agree entirely that Knoxville to Nashville is waaaaay overdue for a big winter. Could throw Chatty in there too. Though Chatty did get some big ones in 2014 and 2015 which the rest of us missed out on.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on December 11, 2018, 01:41:47 PM
I've been alive since '97 ...

(http://www.emofaces.com/en/emoticons/o/old-emoticon.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2018, 01:44:07 PM
I've been alive since '97 and lived in Tennessee for a little more than half of my life. I'm telling you, from a young person's perspective, 10" of snow during the winter season in Nashville is a good winter. In my memory, only 2002-03, 2009-10 and 2010-11 cracked that barrier while I was growing up in Nashville. Rest of them were meh. We had those cold winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 and basically nothing to show for it.

Goes to show that colder winters aren't necessarily snowier! Last year was colder than average through December and much of January, as well as March, and Knoxville had 2.5" for the season. We nearly broke that on Sunday morning when we picked up 2".

Coach B, I agree entirely that Knoxville to Nashville is waaaaay overdue for a big winter. Could throw Chatty in there too. Though Chatty did get some big ones in 2014 and 2015 which the rest of us missed out on.
storm track going be in great shape for us this winter  for everything I read on... should be active souther jet to boot with the El NiŮo... this winter

Post Merge: December 11, 2018, 02:00:01 PM
The winter of 1984 1985. We had little over 30 inches here that winter total snow... unreal

Post Merge: December 11, 2018, 02:04:40 PM
All of us old goats remember very snowy winters in the 60s. 😉 ::snowman::
i was born in 60s. ... donít remember many them ... remember all the 70s good ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: jfranklin on December 11, 2018, 02:46:44 PM
Growing up in southern Virginia in the 80's-90's, snow was infrequent and rarely significant (I can remember maybe 3 storms of my entire childhood).  My parents lived in Nashville in the 70's before moving back home, and they would regale us with tales of huge snow storms... usually by the fire while a 34-degree rain soaked our hopes and dreams, and points just north of us got the good stuff.

So I move to Nashville 10 years ago thinking I was finally in the promised land. As everyone here knows, the past decade resembles my childhood far more than I'd hoped.  While that's certainly disappointing, the truly frustrating part is the snow total from this one storm in my hometown... 18 inches.

TL;DR: I'm moving to Minnesota, eh.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on December 11, 2018, 02:59:00 PM
The 70s and 80s in Memphis were a good time for monster snows and major ice storms.  After that (minus the 94 ice storm event) some winters would only output around an inch if even that. Our winter climate has changed and there is zero guarantee it will change back. All this talk about "we are due" is FUD.... We are not due anything  ::lookaround::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on December 11, 2018, 03:53:25 PM
Nice. Iím in a Dutchware 11í with Whoopie slings, Yukon 10x12 tarp and a snugpak underquilt. Enjoy your outing this weekend!

Very nice!  I'm intrigued by the whoopie slings - looks like a great setup as far as adjustments.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: spanarkle08 on December 11, 2018, 04:12:29 PM
All of us old goats remember very snowy winters in the 60s. 😉 ::snowman::

Graduated from high school in 79, seemed like it snowed every day in Jan. in south middle TN. Never melted, gravel roads and trees blocking the sun down in them there hills of Moore County!!! 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 11, 2018, 07:06:18 PM
The I-40 corridor isn't the only place that is struggling.

Many areas out west are getting a lot less snow the past decade or two than they are used to. 

I have talked to people out west and some areas have only had 1 or 2 years that were average or above in the past decade.  The Sierra Nevada region over to Utah has really been struggling during the last decade and a half.



Even I-44 is in a bit of a snow drought as some areas haven't had a big winter event since the Groundhog Day Blizzard in 2011. 
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 11, 2018, 08:21:59 PM
A positive AMO which began in the mid 90ís ironically occurred about the same time snowfall started dropping off. We are on the tail end of the that positive AMO which has actually been 0 to slightly negative as of recent. Usually it takes 25-30 years to flip the majority phase although you can get spikes of one in the middle of the other. Its really easy to follow the colder, snowier winters of the 60ís through the 80ís. In fact the positive AMO of the 20ís to the 50ís at least snowfall wise were similar to where were are now- less snowy with an occasional snowier one in between. Iím interested to see what happens when we have a more robust negative one again.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181212/69563affe47199bf15db96d34a15bd23.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 11, 2018, 09:41:25 PM
Coach B, I agree entirely that Knoxville to Nashville is waaaaay overdue for a big winter.

Sorry, didn't mean for that post to come across as patronizing.

I think in terms of ranges of snowfall. I consider the Nashville area average to be 6-12". Now before you all say that's too high remember the actual range for the different rolling 30 year averages goes up and down over time as Tsnow pointed out. I'd consider 10-15 a solid year, 15-20 really good(but nothing to go nuts over), and 20+ as let's go nuts time!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2018, 10:22:57 PM
Found this while scrolling through my snapchat memories today.

[attachimg=1]

Throwback to Spring Break, 2017, when I returned home for a little bit of snow just south of Nashville.
This followed a record-warm February.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 11, 2018, 10:39:16 PM
Sitting here in NH watching chunks of ice float down the Sugar River in Claremont. Puts into perspective how far away we are from "Winter" in the South. 10" a year would be a great avg for Nashville. Anyone have the 5,10,15,20 year moving avg?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 12, 2018, 10:59:21 AM
fwiw, the GFS has been picking up on a potential storm around the 24th-25th timeframe for several runs now. It's usually good in the 10-15 day range at picking up on a signal of a storm. However, beyond 10 days out, it's a crap shoot on all the details. Could be rain, could be snow. could just miss us. It's shown both rain and snow over the last 5 or so runs. Something to keep an eye on over the next several days.  ::popcorn::

The GFS picked up on this past weekend's storm about 10 days or so prior.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NismoWx on December 12, 2018, 11:36:24 AM
I am merely posting to get this thread above 666 posts.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on December 12, 2018, 10:36:42 PM
After a damp start to the weekend a nice week long stretch of sunny cool weather setups up on Sunday. Nice treat heading into Mid-December.  8)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 13, 2018, 05:17:27 PM
Sorry, didn't mean for that post to come across as patronizing.

I think in terms of ranges of snowfall. I consider the Nashville area average to be 6-12". Now before you all say that's too high remember the actual range for the different rolling 30 year averages goes up and down over time as Tsnow pointed out. I'd consider 10-15 a solid year, 15-20 really good(but nothing to go nuts over), and 20+ as let's go nuts time!


Time is short.  Let's go nuts this year. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on December 13, 2018, 05:49:29 PM
I am merely posting to get this thread above 666 posts.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

The Devil you say...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NismoWx on December 13, 2018, 06:54:12 PM
The Devil you say...
Well it was that post # until the quake posts were merged into another thread.

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 13, 2018, 07:59:25 PM
Maue tweeted long range Euro. Pretty warm through Christmas and maybe into first of January.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2018, 08:34:55 PM
Maue tweeted long range Euro. Pretty warm through Christmas and maybe into first of January.
hard to find any cold air even in fantasy land on most models ....
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 13, 2018, 08:42:16 PM
Maue tweeted long range Euro. Pretty warm through Christmas and maybe into first of January.
MJO in phases 3-5 for the next 3 weeks. Not gonna get cold and snow outbreaks in those. Most likely will have to be wait until early to mid January. Still not going to be overly warm even in those phases.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2018, 09:05:43 PM
MJO in phases 3-5 for the next 3 weeks. Not gonna get cold and snow outbreaks in those. Most likely will have to be wait until early to mid January. Still not going to be overly warm even in those phases.
i personally ready for a break ... bring in the warmer temps for a while ... get some work done outside I need to finish up ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 13, 2018, 09:10:02 PM
I'll take it in stride and make the most out of distance runs in 50 degree weather.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 13, 2018, 09:12:20 PM
MJO in phases 3-5 for the next 3 weeks. Not gonna get cold and snow outbreaks in those. Most likely will have to be wait until early to mid January. Still not going to be overly warm even in those phases.
I am fine with that. Not fun being stuck inside for 2.5 weeks while granddaughter is on Christmas break and like last Christmas where it was too cold to play outside. It would have been fun to see a few snow showers on Christmas morning though.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 14, 2018, 08:13:19 AM
MJO in phases 3-5 for the next 3 weeks. Not gonna get cold and snow outbreaks in those. Most likely will have to be wait until early to mid January. Still not going to be overly warm even in those phases.

If we can get some dry weather in there during the holidays it'll be perfect. Lots of outdoor activities need some quality time between Christmas and New Year's.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 14, 2018, 01:59:08 PM
A frigid air mass over Alberta, Saskatchewan, Montana and the Dakotas is showing up in the model runs late this month. I think we'll be a tad above average through Christmas before dipping below average at the turn of the New Year.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2018, 03:07:53 PM
A frigid air mass over Alberta, Saskatchewan, Montana and the Dakotas is showing up in the model runs late this month. I think we'll be a tad above average through Christmas before dipping below average at the turn of the New Year.
::sleeping::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 14, 2018, 03:59:08 PM
::sleeping::

Oh look, you posted without making any grammatical errors. Good job!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2018, 04:54:53 PM
Oh look, you posted without making any grammatical errors. Good job!
my great grandmother showed me how ....  ::)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 14, 2018, 08:06:24 PM
Despite it being seasonably mild here for the next few weeks, GFS (v2 & v3) shows some serious cold building just across the border in Canada toward month's end.  Our northern neighbors will be frigid nearly coast to coast by the New Year. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 14, 2018, 09:26:00 PM
Despite it being seasonably mild here for the next few weeks, GFS (v2 & v3) shows some serious cold building just across the border in Canada toward month's end.  Our northern neighbors will be frigid nearly coast to coast by the New Year.

Bruce slept on me when I said that earlier today
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: memphishogfan on December 14, 2018, 10:09:59 PM
If we can get some dry weather in there during the holidays it'll be perfect. Lots of outdoor activities need some quality time between Christmas and New Year's.

We've got farmers with cotton and peanuts in the field over here still so a dry spell would be a welcome change.  Lots of hurting farms in our area.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 15, 2018, 05:40:13 AM
Bruce slept on me when I said that earlier today

He's easily bored without extreme weather.   ::hot:: ::drowning:: ::twister:: ::panic:: ::blowup::

(https://www.askideas.com/media/14/Snowman-Bored.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 15, 2018, 09:57:15 AM
he... . is just waiting for.. severe wx chg... come spring lots of tornados.. i see it in long range  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 15, 2018, 12:30:24 PM
he... . is just waiting for.. severe wx chg... come spring lots of tornados.. i see it in long range  ::coffee::
yeah. Good call. Weíre over due for a Nina ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 15, 2018, 12:33:37 PM
he... . is just waiting for.. severe wx chg... come spring lots of tornados.. i see it in long range  ::coffee::

He's just....watched too... much Star Trek.  8)
 
Quote
Learn to speak as Captain Kirk did in the series. The real Kirk has three notable ways of speaking; over-punctuating certain words, leaving gaps in-between words mid-sentence and saying entire sentences really quickly.  It is important to master all these speech patterns.

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 15, 2018, 12:38:28 PM
Euro trying real hard to get some mixed precip on the backend of next weekendís storm in this ďwarmerĒ pattern.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on December 15, 2018, 03:37:45 PM
Euro trying real hard to get some mixed precip on the backend of next weekendís storm in this ďwarmerĒ pattern.

Little to no chance of that with the cold air bottled up way north.
 ::blowtorch::

[attachimg=2]

[attachment deleted by admin]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 15, 2018, 04:04:31 PM
Want a White Christmas?

You are going to have to go to the Canadian Rockies. 

I do think we will repair the damage this unfavorable pacific airmass has done starting with building snowpack up to the north and northwest towards the end of the month/beginning of January.

If you are patient we should be in a much favorable pattern according to analogs by mid-January into February.  Remember even 1957-58, 2002-03, and 2014-15 took a little time to get cranking.  Even the lackluster 2006-07 had a colder than normal February.  We will get our chance but for now on enjoy the fact that you only have to wear long sleeves or a light jacket/hoodie instead of looking like something from the Christmas Story.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 15, 2018, 04:10:57 PM
Little to no chance of that with the cold air bottled up way north.
 ::blowtorch::

(Attachment Link)

The next frame looks like this
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181215/e5a9ae78b12767675a8ed494f6e7a178.jpg)

There is enough cold air under the ULL on modeling today to make a mix of precip occur. 850ís support a mix along with temps in the mid 30ís. Certainly not a big deal and itís 6 days away.  The GFS is way more robust on a changeover which still isnít a big deal. Honestly at this point I could care less. This isnít the pattern for anything major to occur.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 15, 2018, 05:58:10 PM
same song. Listen. Besides the rogue storms that happen sometimes dont expect a good snow especially around Mid Tn until end of Feb-March. Its like that every year we always go in the winter with high hopes from the talks of favorable this and that and as we see this years shaping up the same. haha

It's December... There are 100 more days of winter storm potential
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 15, 2018, 06:21:37 PM
same song. Listen. Besides the rogue storms that happen sometimes dont expect a good snow especially around Mid Tn until end of Feb-March. Its like that every year we always go in the winter with high hopes from the talks of favorable this and that and as we see this years shaping up the same. haha

Weíve had plenty of good snows in January and early/mid February...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 15, 2018, 06:42:25 PM
Weíve had plenty of good snows in January and early/mid February...

All of our noticeable snows since 2016 have occurred in January
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 15, 2018, 07:00:14 PM
2002-12-16   63   35   49.0   9.0   16   0   T   M   M
2002-12-17   62   52   57.0   17.2   8   0   0.19   M   M
2002-12-18   63   48   55.5   15.8   9   0   0.00   M   M
2002-12-19   60   45   52.5   13.0   12   0   0.99   M   M
2002-12-20   52   36   44.0   4.7   21   0   0.00   M   M
2002-12-21   55   33   44.0   4.9   21   0   0.01   M   M
2002-12-22   53   38   45.5   6.5   19   0   0.00   M   M
2002-12-23   49   28   38.5   -0.3   26   0   0.14   M   M
2002-12-24   45   31   38.0   -0.7   27   0   0.68   T   0
2002-12-25   31   28   29.5   -9.0   35   0   T   T   0
2002-12-26   37   25   31.0   -7.4   34   0   0.00   M   M
2002-12-27   43   20   31.5   -6.8   33   0   0.00   M   M
2002-12-28   55   28   41.5   3.3   23   0   0.00   M   M
2002-12-29   61   32   46.5   8.4   18   0   0.00   M   M
2002-12-30   61   46   53.5   15.5   11   0   0.00   M   M
2002-12-31   59   51   55.0   17.1   10   0   0.39   M   M

Here is how things went in the 2nd half of December during the great winter of 2002-03.  The data is from Nashville.  The first column after the date is highs and the second is low. 

The first half of that month was below average and had a threat that impacted some people and missed a lot of others like 2018 so far. 


Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on December 15, 2018, 09:26:23 PM
All of our noticeable snows since 2016 have occurred in January

pretty small sample size :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 15, 2018, 11:47:14 PM
Cleaned it up for everyone. Good night.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 15, 2018, 11:48:24 PM
Dang it Curt... Let us have some fun every once in a while.


Rest of y'all missed some good sh**
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 15, 2018, 11:51:38 PM
Dang it Curt... Let us have some fun every once in a while.


Rest of y'all missed some good sh**
My wife was reading and actually was entertained. However can we stick to winter? Yíall gonna go all shiz before it really kicks in.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 16, 2018, 12:29:31 AM
The euro is trying its best to give us some flakes late next week ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on December 16, 2018, 03:14:03 AM
Cleaned it up for everyone. Good night.

I cleared out his profile - he had a lovely signature change that showed up in all his previous posts.  Winters in the south drive people to this.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 16, 2018, 08:10:11 AM
Dang it Curt... Let us have some fun every once in a while.


Rest of y'all missed some good sh**

Well I was one those that missed out.
Oh well


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 16, 2018, 08:38:06 AM
Well I was one those that missed out.
Oh well


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
o boy. Did you miss it drift... lol... could be the highlight of this winter ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 16, 2018, 08:56:07 AM
The great winters of the 70's and 85 were all loaded with a big January and February. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 16, 2018, 09:01:36 AM
So apparently someone was mad that we are going to have basically avg temps for this time of year for a couple of weeks or so.  Thatís the jest of what I could figure.
With that said, is the chat feature still active?


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 16, 2018, 09:10:28 AM
I screened some of it  ::rofl::

I can't believe y'all didn't punish me for what I said

After all that happened between me and him, he changed his profile picture and signature to porno and begged the admins to ban him
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 16, 2018, 09:14:44 AM
I screened some of it  ::rofl::

I can't believe y'all didn't punish me for what I said

After all that happened between me and him, he changed his profile picture and signature to porno and begged the admins to ban him

I saw a screen shot myself. Thatís all I will say on the subject . Now I guess we can go on with our regularly scheduled programming.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on December 16, 2018, 09:17:35 AM
FYI I pinned this post and unpinned the on from 16-17. Hope no one minds.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 16, 2018, 09:24:02 AM
Summary:

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 16, 2018, 10:41:26 AM
I missed all the hoopla lol


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 16, 2018, 11:30:40 AM
Does anyone know if the extreme cold of January 1985 was the result of a stratospheric warming event?

If my memory is correct, the PV was displaced into the lower-48 causing extreme cold for most of the US.

I was just curious if it was caused by a strat warming event or if the teleconnections just aligned correctly for severe cold that month.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 16, 2018, 12:45:43 PM
Does anyone know if the extreme cold of January 1985 was the result of a stratospheric warming event?

If my memory is correct, the PV was displaced into the lower-48 causing extreme cold for most of the US.

I was just curious if it was caused by a strat warming event or if the teleconnections just aligned correctly for severe cold that month.
yes   that is correct... it was a rare extreme stat warming event at that... by mid January... the pv was practically located near the ohio valley....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 16, 2018, 12:59:48 PM
I missed all the hoopla lol


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I think I am glad I did miss it!  ::wow::
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 16, 2018, 01:28:13 PM
Does anyone know if the extreme cold of January 1985 was the result of a stratospheric warming event?

If my memory is correct, the PV was displaced into the lower-48 causing extreme cold for most of the US.

I was just curious if it was caused by a strat warming event or if the teleconnections just aligned correctly for severe cold that month.

Another good example that correlates better to this year is the modoki El NiŮo SSW of late December 66. Once it occurs, It takes about 2 to 3 weeks for the temps to affect the troposphere and translate into cold. The first half of January 66 was mild and it turned on a dime mid month. The back half was brutal with several snowfalls and below zero temps. It all culminated with a blizzard in the last couple of days of the month. While blizzard conditions werenít met in Tennessee per se, it was close in Arkansas.

https://youtu.be/yeODNdl4L3E

The SSW is occurring at the perfect time. When it occurs later in winter it seems the cold just never makes it. We shall see.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 16, 2018, 01:54:05 PM
Well, I guess I missed some crazy stuff last evening.  In any event, for all those bored with our weather:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/superstorms-trail-of-devastation-more-than-55000-homes-wake-up-without-power-in-sydney-as-queensland-braces-for-zombie-cyclone-to-reform-after-half-a-metre-of-rainfall-overnight/ar-BBR0oog?ocid=spartanntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/superstorms-trail-of-devastation-more-than-55000-homes-wake-up-without-power-in-sydney-as-queensland-braces-for-zombie-cyclone-to-reform-after-half-a-metre-of-rainfall-overnight/ar-BBR0oog?ocid=spartanntp)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on December 16, 2018, 05:38:20 PM
I screened some of it  ::rofl::

I can't believe y'all didn't punish me for what I said

After all that happened between me and him, he changed his profile picture and signature to porno and begged the admins to ban him
Say wuuuttt???

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 17, 2018, 04:14:01 AM
0z euro... anything but winter around Christmas and after...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 17, 2018, 12:13:56 PM
It is a beautiful day in Brentwood! Photo of the cloudless blue sky. :)




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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 17, 2018, 02:33:35 PM
It is a beautiful day in Brentwood! Photo of the cloudless blue sky. :)




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Now that's a cobalt blue. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on December 17, 2018, 03:14:00 PM
Another good example that correlates better to this year is the modoki El NiŮo SSW of late December 66. Once it occurs, It takes about 2 to 3 weeks for the temps to affect the troposphere and translate into cold. The first half of January 66 was mild and it turned on a dime mid month. The back half was brutal with several snowfalls and below zero temps. It all culminated with a blizzard in the last couple of days of the month. While blizzard conditions werenít met in Tennessee per se, it was close in Arkansas.

https://youtu.be/yeODNdl4L3E

The SSW is occurring at the perfect time. When it occurs later in winter it seems the cold just never makes it. We shall see.

Man, I would love to see something like that!  Textbook setup as shown there.
That one was too old for me but I do remember 85, even though I was only 4 years old at the time.  I remember the snow being deep enough I could dig a tunnel under it and crawl through.  It was one of the few things I can remember from that age!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 17, 2018, 06:16:08 PM
snow cover across the country for this time year is mind boggling ... not going be a white Christmas for a large part of the north even...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 17, 2018, 06:18:24 PM
Since there's not much happening weather-wise, here's something to occupy your time.  If you ever wanted to feel like an ant (literally), watch this. 

https://youtu.be/Iy7NzjCmUf0 (https://youtu.be/Iy7NzjCmUf0)


Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on December 18, 2018, 06:40:48 AM
It's a beautiful, crisp December morning here in Knoxville.  There.  Weather.   ::whistling::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 18, 2018, 06:45:19 AM
::popcorn::.... god. we need a winter storm to track....
Nothing like a good old Apps Runner to get things going.  8)

(http://i63.tinypic.com/j5b3pc.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2018, 07:19:02 AM
Thanks for changing the subject. I've been in the thick of it the past three days. You have my word that will be the last time for a while.

Back to weather.

This is what NOAA posted last Friday for temperature anomalies heading into January. I think it's a little bullish on warm temperatures, at least for the country's midsection. GFS is showing some frigid air pushing into the Plains late in the month. Looks like a defined SE ridge will keep that airmass away from us.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2018, 07:26:51 AM
Middle and eastern TN about to get another soaking. 

(http://i64.tinypic.com/28snajd.gif)

Hopefully, we can add some cold air in the mix next month, and these systems will be producing heavy snow instead of rain. 



Post Merge: December 18, 2018, 08:41:31 AM
Speaking of rain, Lexington, KY has seen their wettest year on record with over 68" of precipitation in 2018.  What makes it noteworthy is they just set that record back in 2011.  Before that, I believe the record was way back in the 1930's.  Having two all-time record wet years in one decade is pretty astounding. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2018, 09:26:12 AM
Ok, no more universe videos.  Instead, here is an instructional video on how NOT to drive this winter. 

https://youtu.be/EWrUc0ctVBk (https://youtu.be/EWrUc0ctVBk)

(May want to keep the volume low.  Some drivers exclaim with choice words).   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on December 18, 2018, 11:04:20 AM
My apologies for interrupting Heath & Shenitzeit's budding bromance......but I would like to share this.  My grandmother is missing from Murray, Ky.  We have family in Middle, TN, and Huntsville, AL.  And I know that we have many members on these forums from areas that she often visits.....that's why I'm sharing.  Any help is obviously appreciated.

https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/2018/12/18/missing-88-year-old-sina-richardson/

Now.....back to your previous disagreement in progress.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Scot on December 18, 2018, 11:06:26 AM
My apologies for interrupting Heath & Shenitzeit's budding bromance......but I would like to share this.  My grandmother is missing from Murray, Ky.  We have family in Middle, TN, and Huntsville, AL.  And I know that we have many members on these forums from areas that she often visits.....that's why I'm sharing.  Any help is obviously appreciated.

https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/2018/12/18/missing-88-year-old-sina-richardson/

Now.....back to your previous disagreement in progress.

The article now says that she has been located and being taken care of.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on December 18, 2018, 11:08:24 AM
The article now says that she has been located and being taken care of.

Just saw that immediately after I posted!!!!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on December 18, 2018, 12:28:09 PM
Anything going to happen with the system this weekend?  My local forecast has the s-word in it for Friday night.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2018, 12:39:08 PM
Anything going to happen with the system this weekend?  My local forecast has the s-word in it for Friday night.

MRX mentioned something about accumulating snow for the higher elevations. Not sure about Middle or West.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 18, 2018, 12:45:45 PM
There is too much modified Pacific air around for the weekend system to be much of a concern for those below 3,000 feet in elevation. 

I don't even think dynamic cooling would be able to save us.  I would love to have some actual cold air with this one. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2018, 01:33:27 PM
I can chill with the current pattern. This December beats last December in a number of ways; already, a big storm produced heavy snowfall for many Tennesseans, and a warmer pattern has ensued since. Last year, we were collectively let down on several occasions, save the very highest elevations in extreme East Tennessee. Plus, it was so cold last December that you couldn't even enjoy the outdoors. I'd take the 50 degree weather and no forseeable snow any day over frigid arctic air too dry to produce anything down our way.

Next couple weeks look like great weather for the outdoors. I'm traveling home to Williamson County tonight and plan to spend much of the Christmas break working on projects outside.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 18, 2018, 01:35:36 PM
I would be happy going a week WITH NO RAIN.  Seems like every weekend we go to the new house, it rains.  Makes for a dreary day of work, even though it is inside. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2018, 02:39:21 PM
I'm not loving all the rain, but these storm systems are tracking perfectly to our south and east.   If we had cold air in place with the upcoming one, parts of the area would be seeing winter weather.  If we can get true Polar/Arctic air back in the mix, this active southern jet will bring tidings of great joy to all Tennesseans. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 18, 2018, 02:55:34 PM
I'm not loving all the rain, but these storm systems are tracking perfectly to our south and east.   If we had cold air in place with the upcoming one, parts of the area would be seeing winter weather.  If we can get true Polar/Arctic air back in the mix, this active southern jet will bring tidings of great joy to all Tennesseans.
not being a Debbie downer ... but watch ... if or when the artic express arrives ... it be suppression city for us ... book it.... dry

Post Merge: December 18, 2018, 03:12:42 PM
Epps is torchy up to new years ... no suprise actually...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2018, 05:28:26 PM
not being a Debbie downer ... but watch ... if or when the artic express arrives ... it be suppression city for us ... book it.... dry

Post Merge: December 18, 2018, 03:12:42 PM

(http://meredithbracesloss.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/tumblr_m59pxeDf4r1qay0tlo2_500.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 18, 2018, 05:39:23 PM
not being a Debbie downer ... but watch ... if or when the artic express arrives ... it be suppression city for us ... book it.... dry

Post Merge: December 18, 2018, 03:12:42 PM
Epps is torchy up to new years ... no suprise actually...

EPS is definitely cold for 45 day period starting the first week of January. The latest weeklies back it up too. Huge polar vortex split looks likely by Christmas. Itís early enough to make a difference this go around vs SSW in late January or Feb. Its a step down process - not immediate- which usually peaks with some substantial cold at some point in heart of winter in the central and eastern US. That why the EPS looks cold now.

But- it all has to actually happen now. Not just happen on a model.

Best examples are January 66 and January 85. The 1966 example was also an El NiŮo central based. The last half of January was brutal cold.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2018, 06:04:04 PM
I would rather our "torch" be now into early January, than in our normally coldest time of the year, which is mid to late January.  And even this torch doesn't compare to other warm spells in December like 1984.  That December was a true torch with temperatures into the 70's for multiple days at a time, and severe weather and flooding occurring between Christmas and New Year's Day.  Living through that month, most people (including me), thought that the winter of 84-85 was going to be a non-event.  Wrong.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NashRugger on December 18, 2018, 07:01:45 PM
Meanwhile, a probable EF2 tornado hits Kitsap County, Washington. Yes, WASHINGTON STATE. There was no warning apparently either.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 18, 2018, 07:35:24 PM
Here are my breakdown thoughts for January based on El Nino climatology, analogs, and even the timing of the MJO.

So far things are going about what I expected for the first month of Meteorological Winter at least for this general area.  I expected a change from a warmer pattern to our back-loaded fun pattern sometime during the first week or two of the month.  At this time I don't see much to deviate from the line of thinking except that at worse case it may occur 5-7 days later than expected. 

I broke January down into the 3 parts.  I have a bit higher confidence on the on the first part of the month (should be in torch land) and last part of the month (should be into our fun pattern).  The middle part of January is kinda a crap shoot depending on the timing of the MJO relative to what should be an -EPO/+PNA pattern. 

(http://i66.tinypic.com/kz0pv.png)

(http://i65.tinypic.com/30lyx47.png)

(http://i68.tinypic.com/x3h9gp.png)
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 18, 2018, 07:47:15 PM
The 1960s featured some legendary winters. Thatís part of the reason why we might think the older generation overreacts to the prospect of winter weather... or the panic that ensues where milk and bread disappear off the shelves. Thereís a cultural memory of hard times from winter storms. My 91-y-o grandmother still talks about the difficulties from the winter of 1951... my uncle was dehydrated and had to be put in the hospital. Food shortages really did happen in those days.

Ask why people rush to the grocery store... probably learned behavior passed down from generations back... when running out of food was a real thing after winter storms. We laugh and poke fun now... but, I suspect it had some basis in reality.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 18, 2018, 07:52:05 PM
Meanwhile, a probable EF2 tornado hits Kitsap County, Washington. Yes, WASHINGTON STATE. There was no warning apparently either.

I looked at Washington State tornado data one day out of curiosity and was surprised to see a record of an EF/F-3 tornado that struck the Seattle area sometime in the 60s (forgot the exact year) but it was also in December.  Tornadoes aren't quite as rare as we think they are during storm season in the Pacific Northwest.     
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2018, 08:06:45 PM
The 1960s featured some legendary winters. Thatís part of the reason why we might think the older generation overreacts to the prospect of winter weather... or the panic that ensues where milk and bread disappear off the shelves. Thereís a cultural memory of hard times from winter storms. My 91-y-o grandmother still talks about the difficulties from the winter of 1951... my uncle was dehydrated and had to be put in the hospital. Food shortages really did happen in those days.

Ask why people rush to the grocery store... probably learned behavior passed down from generations back... when running out of food was a real thing after winter storms. We laugh and poke fun now... but, I suspect it had some basis in reality.


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That's a good point.  And for those of us 40 and over, we remember roads and highways weren't treated and cleaned and even pretreated like they do today.  In the late 70's I lived in northern KY (and I was very young, thank you very much), but I remember our family being shut in for 3-4 days at a time during those harsh winters simply because the roads were nearly impassable.  Go backwards in time and you live in a place where a snowstorm shuts the world down for a week or longer.  We are really spoiled in our modern era.  We long for and love a good snowstorm because TDOT cleans the roads the next day.  Our forefathers would think we are crazy. 

Post Merge: December 18, 2018, 08:33:54 PM
No shortage of precipitation in the U.S.A. (outside Alaska & Maine)

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2m6vpsg.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on December 19, 2018, 12:17:49 AM


Post Merge: December 18, 2018, 08:33:54 PM
No shortage of precipitation in the U.S.A. (outside Alaska & Maine)

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2m6vpsg.gif)

Thank God! I was afraid we were going to go into a drought.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 19, 2018, 08:06:03 AM
Thank God! I was afraid we were going to go into a drought.

Better save all the water falling now in barrels!  It's coming!    ::)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2018, 01:07:06 PM
Fox News reporting today.  The polar vortex is coming into the United States in January .... ::faint::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on December 19, 2018, 02:00:30 PM
Bruce I think you like to troll sometimes.  Like Eric said the SSW is happening just will take time for effects.  It does look like we will get a very cold and active Jan.  Does thsf mean snow or ice or cold rain is yet to be seen.  I like our chances. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2018, 02:08:54 PM
Bruce I think you like to troll sometimes.  Like Eric said the SSW is happening just will take time for effects.  It does look like we will get a very cold and active Jan.  Does thsf mean snow or ice or cold rain is yet to be seen.  I like our chances.
just spread the gospel.  From my favorite news source. Fox....  not trolling at all   Donít shoot the messenger....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 19, 2018, 02:11:45 PM
Bruce I think you like to troll sometimes.  Like Eric said the SSW is happening just will take time for effects.  It does look like we will get a very cold and active Jan.  Does thsf mean snow or ice or cold rain is yet to be seen.  I like our chances.

Not me, man.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2018, 02:14:08 PM
Not me, man.
was. Curt.... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 19, 2018, 03:04:28 PM
was. Curt.... lol

Yes that would be me. I donít think I used the term polar vortex although it always exists during the winter whether tilted towards one of the poles or now.

The Fox News story actually was edited from the capital weather gang at the WaPo. The media likens it and the SSW to North Pole getting displaced into the US which is baloney. It does warm the  poles and sends cold air into the troposphere for delivery into the lower latitudes. Thatís the simple answer from a complete amateur.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 19, 2018, 03:16:29 PM
Sorry to switch the subject, but for those who haven't noticed, NAM has a little bit of the white stuff for the 1500' and higher elevations this weekend.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on December 19, 2018, 03:27:59 PM
OHX has it mentioned as likely for me Friday night.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on December 20, 2018, 07:35:44 AM
Yes that would be me. I donít think I used the term polar vortex although it always exists during the winter whether tilted towards one of the poles or now.

The Fox News story actually was edited from the capital weather gang at the WaPo. The media likens it and the SSW to North Pole getting displaced into the US which is baloney. It does warm the  poles and sends cold air into the troposphere for delivery into the lower latitudes. Thatís the simple answer from a complete amateur.

I got the news alert on my phone the other day from Fox, and the headline implied we were headed into a new ice age / doomsday scenario. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on December 20, 2018, 09:48:12 AM
They're backing off slowly now FWIW.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 20, 2018, 09:56:52 AM
It does look like that Sierra Nevada to Utah corridor will score a White Christmas. Those who are desperate for a White Christmas may not have to go to Canada after all. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 20, 2018, 10:12:26 AM
Euro day 10 is showing some impressive cold dumping into the plains.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 20, 2018, 10:25:29 AM
Euro day 10 is showing some impressive cold dumping into the plains.
yeah ... thatís the beginning of the drastic cold coming down  the news media talking bout... quite impressive ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 20, 2018, 10:34:13 AM
Euro day 10 is showing some impressive cold dumping into the plains.

Hopefully it wonít take until February to dump into Tn.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 20, 2018, 10:54:50 AM
Euro day 10 is showing some impressive cold dumping into the plains.

I checked it out on this morning's GFS run. Going 10-15 days out, it appears the jet stream won't buckle for us. It's lined up perfectly along I-44.

250mb jet stream winds look very powerful out in fantasyland. Cuts straight through the TN-MO-AR-KY area late in the month and seems to stall there. Could be interesting on both sides of this.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 20, 2018, 01:00:51 PM
12z euro pops up fairly stout southeast ridge long term ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 20, 2018, 01:10:49 PM
Winter to remember for January and February! I feel it coming!!!! Just be patient for another 2 weeks and things should start to unfold. That's my Christmas hopes for the New Year! ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 20, 2018, 01:30:52 PM
End run on todayís euro.... interesting see how it unfolds ... se ridge ... cold artic coming down ... going create nice battle zone somewhere ... southern jet looks stay very active ... could be some interesting weather ahead for us
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 20, 2018, 01:57:17 PM
I'm about ready for all this rain to beat it. I'm in the mid-state. Nonstop, all day, and mostly heavy. I'm glad we had a bit of sun yesterday.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 20, 2018, 03:08:20 PM
12z euro pops up fairly stout southeast ridge long term ....

Had a good ridge this fall too, then the dam burst. Hopefully, we see a repeat.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on December 20, 2018, 07:33:13 PM
I looked at Washington State tornado data one day out of curiosity and was surprised to see a record of an EF/F-3 tornado that struck the Seattle area sometime in the 60s (forgot the exact year) but it was also in December.  Tornadoes aren't quite as rare as we think they are during storm season in the Pacific Northwest.   

Considering this was the strongest tornado to hit that state since 1983 I would say itís pretty rare
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 21, 2018, 09:40:17 AM
happy winter solstice.... shortest day per daylight of the year....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 21, 2018, 10:11:02 AM
The Snowman wants to say Merry Christmas to all and get your  ::popcorn:: ready for a rocking Jan and Feb! Were gonna do this folks!!!! ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 21, 2018, 10:12:22 AM
The Snowman wants to say Merry Christmas to all and get your  ::popcorn:: ready for a rocking Jan and Feb we gonna do this!!!! ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Merry kinda early Christmas Snowman!


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2018, 10:20:45 AM
The Snowman wants to say Merry Christmas to all and get your  ::popcorn:: ready for a rocking Jan and Feb! Were gonna do this folks!!!! ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

 ::snowman:: ::flag::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 21, 2018, 11:14:46 AM
Early January is cold on the 12Z GFS. Also, has a couple shots of Winter weather. ::snowman::

(https://i.imgur.com/G3EJhBV.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 21, 2018, 11:23:20 AM
Early January is cold on the 12Z GFS. Also, has a couple shots of Winter weather. ::snowman::

(https://i.imgur.com/G3EJhBV.png)
so. It begins.... ::popcorn:: ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 21, 2018, 12:30:45 PM
Snow starting to mix with rain in Kingsport


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 21, 2018, 01:10:19 PM
todays 12z euro showing a nice shot of artic air coming out Canada..... but pretty much stalls in the southern plains thanks to the stubborn se ridge... but times the ridge can be a benefit to us... going be interesting see how plays out ::coffee:: edit  for next Thursday.. wouldn't be surprised see some thunderstorms at least be strong but mainly elevated...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 21, 2018, 01:15:38 PM
SREF spitting out crazy stuff for Kingsport  ::scratch:: I mean, it is a Rain/Snow mix (mostly rain). But, 2-3"? No way.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2018, 02:29:24 PM
TWC's winter outlook now mirrors many others, including our own StormNine's.


https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2018-12-20-january-february-march-2019-us-temperature-outlook-the-weather (https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2018-12-20-january-february-march-2019-us-temperature-outlook-the-weather)

Sorry Weather Channel, but we heard it here at TNWX first. 



Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on December 21, 2018, 02:45:34 PM
Early January is cold on the 12Z GFS. Also, has a couple shots of Winter weather. ::snowman::

(https://i.imgur.com/G3EJhBV.png)

Looks icy.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 21, 2018, 03:10:57 PM
TWC's winter outlook now mirrors many others, including our own StormNine's.


https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2018-12-20-january-february-march-2019-us-temperature-outlook-the-weather (https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2018-12-20-january-february-march-2019-us-temperature-outlook-the-weather)

Sorry Weather Channel, but we heard it here at TNWX first.
what bout. Precip? ::shrug::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2018, 03:20:34 PM
what bout. Precip? ::shrug::


Good question.  But being cold enough is half the battle.  If the current active pattern continues, we'll be in business.


In other news, a very small creek behind the house is a raging torrent this evening after over 2" of rain today.  And it's still raining.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 21, 2018, 10:31:02 PM
Worried about flooding after Christmas. Looks like a slow moving system with a very strong prolonged moisture feed.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 22, 2018, 08:29:02 AM
That blocking at 240 on euro is a thing of beauty...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 22, 2018, 11:07:47 AM
Worried about flooding after Christmas. Looks like a slow moving system with a very strong prolonged moisture feed.


I think flooding could become an ongoing problem this winter into spring if this pattern continues.  Could be some major river flooding by spring, as well, if a huge snowpack develops just to our north at some point.  Heck, we may have our own snowpack to deal with.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 22, 2018, 07:59:59 PM
Yesterdayís NE TN higher elevations snowfall (Mt LeConte with 16Ē)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181223/39460f57f20a45a82848eb7cfbf00ae0.jpg)


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 23, 2018, 01:48:33 PM
its absolutely to quite in here for this time of year... not a good sign at all... :o
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 23, 2018, 02:04:20 PM
its absolutely to quite in here for this time of year... not a good sign at all... :o

It's the Holidays with nothing to track in the short term. Enjoying the family time though. Made some Christmas Cookies with the kids this morning. Played some card games. Good times.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Flash on December 23, 2018, 04:31:28 PM
It's the Holidays with nothing to track in the short term. Enjoying the family time though. Made some Christmas Cookies with the kids this morning. Played some card games. Good times.

Similar scene over our way. For me, I can relate to Bruce in the antsy department, but 2002/2009 went along way in educating me the importance of December patience in weak El NiŮo winters. 0z EPS, 0z GEPS, and 6z GEFS show our stubborn SE ridge fading by year end. Plenty of favorable signals showing up when we want them. More pros than cons for those wanting to ride the wave train in mid-January.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 23, 2018, 05:18:14 PM
its absolutely to quite in here for this time of year... not a good sign at all... :o

Calm before the winter storm(s). 

Spent the weekend with family in Kentucky.  Dad had surgery, but doing well.  Glad we didn't have bad winter weather around, or it would've been a difficult weekend traveling to and fro from the hospital. 




Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 23, 2018, 06:08:05 PM
I was able to squeak about a half-inch of snow out of a surprise system today here in Kentucky.  Some areas in Muhlenberg and Todd Counties picked up to 2 inches of snow.  It is pretty much all gone now. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 23, 2018, 07:19:56 PM
I was able to squeak about a half-inch of snow out of a surprise system today here in Kentucky.  Some areas in Muhlenberg and Todd Counties picked up to 2 inches of snow.  It is pretty much all gone now.
We got about 5 minutes of heavy snowfall here. It actually started to cover the ground in spots right before it stopped. It was coming down in big chunks too, half dollar size and bigger for a minute or 2. It didn't last long but it was pretty. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 24, 2018, 02:25:06 PM
I'm sure many of you have heard by now about the Indonesia Tsunami.

Awful story about the band who perished in the wave during their concert. Thousands of people had no warning of the tsunami. It was caused by a volcano, I think.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on December 24, 2018, 03:40:49 PM
I'm sure many of you have heard by now about the Indonesia Tsunami.

Awful story about the band who perished in the wave during their concert. Thousands of people had no warning of the tsunami. It was caused by a volcano, I think.

Heartbreaking. I heard that, due to the shutdown, there was no warning from the US. I donít know if thatís true though. I hope they have their own system.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 24, 2018, 04:08:41 PM
Heartbreaking. I heard that, due to the shutdown, there was no warning from the US. I donít know if thatís true though. I hope they have their own system.

I thought they had their own system and it didnít trigger because it was caused by a volcano and not an earthquake.

Do they really depend on us? That just sounds like a HUGE liability in our part if so.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on December 24, 2018, 08:50:28 PM
I thought they had their own system and it didnít trigger because it was caused by a volcano and not an earthquake.

Do they really depend on us? That just sounds like a HUGE liability in our part if so.

We are the best and the best equipped. Though, I really donít know if they count on us, it may just be false leverage during the shutdown. Iíd be ashamed if these deaths could have so easily have been prevented.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on December 24, 2018, 08:56:28 PM
I thought they had their own system and it didnít trigger because it was caused by a volcano and not an earthquake.

Do they really depend on us? That just sounds like a HUGE liability in our part if so.
My understanding is that those are essential services and are not subject to the shutdown. Shutdowns do, however, delay the paychecks of those involved.

Shutdowns have occurred many, many times and are just part of working for the government.  The Congressional fitness center is still operating, BTW (just the essentials, lol).



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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 24, 2018, 09:21:52 PM
Heartbreaking. I heard that, due to the shutdown, there was no warning from the US. I donít know if thatís true though. I hope they have their own system.

There would've been no way to warn since it wasn't caused by an earthquake. The shutdown has impacted the post tsunami response.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 24, 2018, 10:00:35 PM
I just talked to Santa and he said that he is planning a statewide snowstorm in Tennessee sometime in January.  He also said that he is giving Bruce a tornado in May.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 25, 2018, 06:15:38 AM
Merry Christmas. Everyone...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on December 25, 2018, 07:29:24 AM
It was chilly enough to warrant nice coats for Christmas Eve service last night and the cover on my smoker was frosted this morning.  Now the smoker is hot and working on Christmas dinner and good friends are on their way this afternoon to share our table.  After trips to see family over the weekend this is Christmas celebration number three.  We're truly blessed and I hope that everyone on the board will be with loved ones today and have a wonderful Christmas.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 25, 2018, 07:44:58 AM
(http://s1.card-images.com/images/products/CD1345_Z.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 25, 2018, 08:44:55 AM
I leave for Houston tomorrow morning. Look at the forecast. Be jealous Bruce! 😂😉

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 25, 2018, 09:36:06 AM
I leave for Houston tomorrow morning. Look at the forecast. Be jealous Bruce!

(Attachment Link)

#anchordown
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 25, 2018, 10:32:37 AM
The latest euro is wet... say the least ..
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 25, 2018, 10:46:00 AM
The latest euro is wet... say the least ..

No rest for the soggy:

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2jg1lqw.gif)

Note: much of what falls in the northern Plains and upper mid-west will be frozen.  Major snowstorm about to occur there. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on December 25, 2018, 11:08:29 AM
Looks like New Year's may be better for kayaking than sledding.  I'm holding out for a pattern change in January that will give us snowstorms to track.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 25, 2018, 12:08:20 PM
Merry Christmas to all.

Looks like models are starting to hint at a colder pattern as go into January. All sorts of questions still remain but looks like an opportunity.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 25, 2018, 02:06:09 PM
Merry Christmas to all.

Looks like models are starting to hint at a colder pattern as go into January. All sorts of questions still remain but looks like an opportunity.

Welcome back


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 25, 2018, 02:09:26 PM
Temps today didn't reach 45 here (43 was the high in the foothills), while western areas are near 60 (Memphis).   Clouds made all the difference. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on December 25, 2018, 02:11:51 PM
I leave for Houston tomorrow morning. Look at the forecast. Be jealous Bruce!

(Attachment Link)
Low of 61 and 64 next 2 nights.  That sounds like summer. 

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 25, 2018, 03:38:27 PM
No rest for the soggy:

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2jg1lqw.gif)

Note: much of what falls in the northern Plains and upper mid-west will be frozen.  Major snowstorm about to occur there.

Don't look now, but rain amounts just went up. 
(http://i65.tinypic.com/14twygy.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 25, 2018, 04:46:43 PM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

The CPC 8-14 day analog page shows us some encouragement for the first week of January.  Notice the lovely western ridge.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 25, 2018, 04:52:33 PM
This looks encouraging.


(http://i64.tinypic.com/2yn3vnl.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 25, 2018, 05:31:14 PM
This looks encouraging.


(http://i64.tinypic.com/2yn3vnl.jpg)

I agree and two days later a clipper rolls through.

(https://i.imgur.com/dDhVyQO.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 25, 2018, 06:01:43 PM
January continues to look promising so far, trends are for colder weather at the moment. I like our chances right now for winter weather during the next 6-8 weeks. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 25, 2018, 06:38:05 PM
January continues to look promising so far, trends are for colder weather at the moment. I like our chances right now for winter weather during the next 6-8 weeks. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

It's crunch time, approaching the core of winter.  We've just passed the darkest days of the northern hemisphere.  The next 6 weeks will either produce or disappoint.  Only time will tell.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on December 25, 2018, 09:36:43 PM
I leave for Houston tomorrow morning. Look at the forecast. Be jealous Bruce! 😂😉

(Attachment Link)


If I was not with family this week I would be chasing in Texas for sure.  Somewhere around the red river valley will see severe weather
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 26, 2018, 08:05:08 AM
It's crunch time, approaching the core of winter.  We've just passed the darkest days of the northern hemisphere.  The next 6 weeks will either produce or disappoint.  Only time will tell.   ::coffee::

00z day 10 Euro was uggggly. Still nothing exciting on the horizon.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 26, 2018, 08:13:00 AM
00z day 10 Euro was uggggly. Still nothing exciting on the horizon.
another bowling ball developing day 10 .along gulf ... guess what ? More rain....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 26, 2018, 08:58:17 AM
Current pattern is a good test of our patience.  ::coffee::

And so we wait.  ::rain::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 26, 2018, 09:11:52 AM
I'm willing to accept the current relaxed pattern going into the first few days of January... if it means we flip to something interesting by mid-January. No guarantee of that of course.

Merry Christmas (belated) and Happy Year to all!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 26, 2018, 02:25:08 PM
Record cold in....India.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 26, 2018, 02:40:13 PM
Record cold in....India.
thats  were the coldest air appears heading ...for the moment ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on December 26, 2018, 05:19:56 PM
Lots of areas look to have high winds late tomorrow.   With such wet ground I won't be surprised to see some downed trees and related power outages.

Post Merge: December 27, 2018, 05:55:14 AM
My first check of the weather this morning found that the flash flood watch has been extended to the whole valley through tomorrow afternoon.   Add in the thunder and gusty winds and this is a decent event for severe weather fans in December.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 27, 2018, 06:43:23 AM
The current pattern reminds me of late 1984.  Mild, too much rain (and flooding), and even thunderstorms in the forecast.  '84 ended much the same way after a cold November/early December. 

Post Merge: December 27, 2018, 07:00:55 AM

Post Merge: December 27, 2018, 05:55:14 AM
My first check of the weather this morning found that the flash flood watch has been extended to the whole valley through tomorrow afternoon.   Add in the thunder and gusty winds and this is a decent event for severe weather fans in December.

Good call on their part.  Streams and creeks are still running high from the last soaking.  I think we'll be under another flash flood watch come Sunday-Tuesday.  After one dry day Saturday, another 2+" of rain looks possible early week.  Sure ending 2018 with lots of water. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2018, 07:06:26 AM
Epps. Has me concerned a bit... say what cold air 11 15 days from now ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 27, 2018, 08:45:35 AM
The current pattern reminds me of late 1984.  Mild, too much rain (and flooding), and even thunderstorms in the forecast.  '84 ended much the same way after a cold November/early December. 

And how did Jan/Feb 85 turn out?  ::cold:: ::snowman::

Post Merge: December 27, 2018, 08:47:32 AM
Wow...some impressive 36 hr Rain totals from NAM 3k. GFS/Euro show another dose of 1-3" Rain days 2-5.
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 27, 2018, 09:06:33 AM
And how did Jan/Feb 85 turn out?  ::cold:: ::snowman::

Post Merge: December 27, 2018, 08:47:32 AM
(Attachment Link)

Exactly.  Back in December '84 there was a huge southeast ridge, and a western trough in late December.  By mid-January the pattern completely reversed, unleashing the Arctic upon us.  I'm not saying it's gonna happen that way, but just an example.
Also, in '85 early January was nothing special.  Things didn't get rolling until around the 15th.  However, from then until February 15th, it was epic city. 

Another example is '14-'15.  That winter was nothing special until mid February.  But that two weeks when the Arctic gates swung open, made up for the lack-luster first half. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2018, 09:14:41 AM
Exactly.  Back in December '84 there was a huge southeast ridge, and a western trough in late December.  By mid-January the pattern completely reversed, unleashing the Arctic upon us.  I'm not saying it's gonna happen that way, but just an example.
Also, in '85 early January was nothing special.  Things didn't get rolling until around the 15th.  However, from then until February 15th, it was epic city. 

Another example is '14-'15.  That winter was nothing special until mid February.  But that two weeks when the Arctic gates swung open, made up for the lack-luster first half.
january 4th... 1985 Memphis to Jackson nearly got a foot of snow followed by temps mid teens ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 27, 2018, 09:18:08 AM
The current pattern reminds me of late 1984.  Mild, too much rain (and flooding), and even thunderstorms in the forecast.  '84 ended much the same way after a cold November/early December. 

Oh, you tease, you.  ::shaking_finger:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 27, 2018, 09:19:44 AM
january 4th... 1985 Memphis to Jackson nearly got a foot of snow followed by temps mid teens ...
Yep I remember that, I remember the night Bill Hall came on and told everybody what was about to unfold. Folks were running to the stores left and right, I remember being around 20 and me and my friends had a ball till mid February. It's time for the dominos to align again!!!! ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 27, 2018, 09:26:17 AM
Exactly.  Back in December '84 there was a huge southeast ridge, and a western trough in late December.  By mid-January the pattern completely reversed, unleashing the Arctic upon us.  I'm not saying it's gonna happen that way, but just an example.
Also, in '85 early January was nothing special.  Things didn't get rolling until around the 15th.  However, from then until February 15th, it was epic city. 

I think the storm pattern was a slow progression from west to east in Jan-Feb '85. As already mention, West TN was apparently walloped in the first few days of January. I don't remember much of anything in the Nashville area that early in the month... and I would assume east from there, consistent with your recollections.  Things seems to really get going here by mid-month. And, I remember the blizzard conditions and powder snow blasting outside at night, followed by the all-time record lows (I think around the 20th of the month or so). There were some follow-up snow and ice storms into the first few days of February. Then, I think it was done. You might have seen an additional storm or two further east toward mid-February.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 27, 2018, 09:53:29 AM
january 4th... 1985 Memphis to Jackson nearly got a foot of snow followed by temps mid teens ...

We missed that one in eastern KY.  Actually, we missed several in eastern areas--getting more backside snow showers and flurries until mid-month, as the lows were tracking too far west--putting us in the warm sector.  But things certainly changed later!

Post Merge: December 27, 2018, 09:56:14 AM
I think the storm pattern was a slow progression from west to east in Jan-Feb '85. As already mention, West TN was apparently walloped in the first few days of January. I don't remember much of anything in the Nashville area that early in the month... and I would assume east from there, consistent with your recollections.  Things seems to really get going here by mid-month. And, I remember the blizzard conditions and powder snow blasting outside at night, followed by the all-time record lows (I think around the 20th of the month or so). There were some follow-up snow and ice storms into the first few days of February. Then, I think it was done. You might have seen an additional storm or two further east toward mid-February.

Yes, early on, the developing deep trough was just a bit too far west for eastern areas to get much more than backside light snow.  As winter progressed, the trough shifted eastward, giving everyone a winter bounty that we've not matched since.   ::snowman::  In eastern KY, the big ones were actually in early February with the last snowstorm being the biggest (over a foot) around the 12th or 13th, I believe.   The pattern flipped again by late February, and it went back to the warmth we saw in December of that winter.   I remember school classes were cancelled from the Arctic outbreak you mentioned (1/20), until the final storm in mid-February.  We missed 4 full weeks of school.  No wonder I had so much fun.   ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 27, 2018, 10:13:08 AM
I believe January 1985 was the last time Chattanooga officially got below zero. We tied our all time record of -10, and we havenít been below zero since. We canít get snow pack anymore with artic air. Temps are always marginal for snow here now.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on December 27, 2018, 10:57:36 AM
Way off topic but 2018 will end with zero EF4 or EF5 tornadoes for the calendar year
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 27, 2018, 10:59:43 AM
Way off topic but 2018 will end with zero EF4 or EF5 tornadoes for the calendar year

Amazing stat!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 27, 2018, 11:15:48 AM
I believe Knoxville hit -24F on January 21, 1985. Coldest day ever.

A little off that topic...look at the recent 12z GFS Total QPF for next 5 days  ::drowning::

[attachimg=1]


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2018, 11:53:08 AM
 ::sleeping::
Way off topic but 2018 will end with zero EF4 or EF5 tornadoes for the calendar year
::sleeping::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 27, 2018, 12:41:38 PM
I believe Knoxville hit -24F on January 21, 1985. Coldest day ever.

A little off that topic...look at the recent 12z GFS Total QPF for next 5 days  ::drowning::

(Attachment Link)
This is going to put a lot of us close to or over 70Ē of rain for 2018.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2018, 12:47:59 PM
Wow. Let me pass out... I just heard a good clap of thunder... ::yum::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 27, 2018, 12:49:03 PM
Models continue to flirt with something for the first week of January. Actually south of us atm. Right were we want it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2018, 12:52:07 PM
Models continue to flirt with something for the first week of January. Actually south of us atm. Right were we want it.
yeah... another cold rain ... per euro...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 27, 2018, 01:09:41 PM
Euro has been slow to the party lately. That system has my attention, certainly something to keep a eye on. I still feel good about January right now, the dominos are going to start falling our way soon. Change is coming! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 27, 2018, 01:15:54 PM
Wow. Let me pass out... I just heard a good clap of thunder... ::yum::

You missing out, down here in Mississippi Iíve been hearing thunder all day


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 27, 2018, 01:32:01 PM
Models continue to flirt with something for the first week of January. Actually south of us atm. Right were we want it.

Fear the NW Trend.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 27, 2018, 02:04:21 PM
This is going to put a lot of us close to or over 70Ē of rain for 2018.
As of yesterday, Lexington, KY is at 70.34" for the year, blowing away any previous records all in the 60" range.  Another 1-3" of rain is possible before year's end.  That's 10 more inches of water than even New Orleans or Miami receive in a normal year. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on December 27, 2018, 02:30:52 PM
The first gusts are coming into Knoxville now, along with heavier clouds.  This feels much more like a springtime storm front and it's been nice and warm all day.  I'm maintaining hope that we'll see the long-promised pattern change in January and get a hefty dose of winter too.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 27, 2018, 02:47:02 PM
Winds are gusty this way with a pencil-line squall-line approaching from the west. Going to be some brief heavy rainfall on the leading edge.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 27, 2018, 03:30:30 PM
Awesome Thunder right now, loving it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 27, 2018, 03:37:04 PM
Yep- just heard a rumble of thunder. The squall line is passing through.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Lucas on December 27, 2018, 03:46:26 PM
In the Nippers Corner area I just heard some thunder that shook the whole house and went on for like 20+ seconds. It sounded like an explosion! I've never heard anything like it before. I see others are discussing on Twitter. That must have been some crazy voltage!

Here's where people are discussing it on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/NashSevereWx/status/1078405291128033280

Here is a video taken in Brentwood.

https://twitter.com/melsenna/status/1078408589637750784
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 27, 2018, 04:05:13 PM
I think the storm pattern was a slow progression from west to east in Jan-Feb '85. As already mention, West TN was apparently walloped in the first few days of January. I don't remember much of anything in the Nashville area that early in the month... and I would assume east from there, consistent with your recollections.  Things seems to really get going here by mid-month. And, I remember the blizzard conditions and powder snow blasting outside at night, followed by the all-time record lows (I think around the 20th of the month or so). There were some follow-up snow and ice storms into the first few days of February. Then, I think it was done. You might have seen an additional storm or two further east toward mid-February.

The January 3-4th snowstorm basically ran from southern Arkansas to Cincinnati and up into PA. It left 12-14 inches in Memphis - a day which I wonít forget. Buses with school kids were left stranded. The liability today would have been ridiculous- but back then people just accepted hardships as a fact rather than with litigation. The forecast when I got up for school - yes I was in the 10th grade no jokes needed- was for flurries. It al occurred between 10am and 10pm so all kids were at school. I just donít think we miss forecasts like that anymore.

https://youtu.be/y0uSHHzFQik

https://youtu.be/BQ0lc3hp-SM

A couple extra things I noticed about this. The NWS forecasts for all of Tennessee - at least watches and warnings- came from Memphis at the time which is in sane to me. There was a winter storm watch for the entire state- and north Alabama- which were completely without warrant since the storm went northeast and not east. I would have thought that even then- forecasts werenít that awful. I have no idea why the NWS in Memphis issued the other watches.

Also Dave Browns 5 day forecast to warm up into the 50ís after the snow never materialized. No surprise there. I you can get a solid foot of snow in January- with low sun angle- it takes awhile to get rid of the cold insulation effects. The temps never made it above freezing until later that weekend. The following weeks had more snow on top of snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Brad on December 27, 2018, 04:42:20 PM
In the Nippers Corner area I just heard some thunder that shook the whole house and went on for like 20+ seconds. It sounded like an explosion! I've never heard anything like it before. I see others are discussing on Twitter. That must have been some crazy voltage!

Here's where people are discussing it on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/NashSevereWx/status/1078405291128033280

Here is a video taken in Brentwood.

https://twitter.com/melsenna/status/1078408589637750784

Yes! Iím near nippers corner too and it was rattling windows and dishes for a long time.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 27, 2018, 05:02:23 PM
I was just coming here to ask if anyone experienced that ďseismicĒ-like thunder. Itís being discussed locally all over social media.

Things were rattling on the walls of my office at home in Nolensville. Wife came in from watching TV in the living room. It alarmed her.

That was something different.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 27, 2018, 05:33:59 PM
The January 3-4th snowstorm basically ran from southern Arkansas to Cincinnati and up into PA. It left 12-14 inches in Memphis - a day which I wonít forget. Buses with school kids were left stranded. The liability today would have been ridiculous- but back then people just accepted hardships as a fact rather than with litigation. The forecast when I got up for school - yes I was in the 10th grade no jokes needed- was for flurries. It al occurred between 10am and 10pm so all kids were at school. I just donít think we miss forecasts like that anymore.

https://youtu.be/y0uSHHzFQik

https://youtu.be/BQ0lc3hp-SM


"Travelers Advisory."  I still hate that phrase.  It meant the Winter Storm Watch never made it to a Warning, and the heaviest snow was about to pass you by. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 27, 2018, 05:36:34 PM
"Travelers Advisory."  I still hate that phrase.  It meant the Winter Storm Watch never made it to a Warning, and the heaviest snow was about to pass you by.

Yeah- I associate it to... the storm is over, and streets are icy in its wake.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 27, 2018, 05:49:44 PM
I was pregnant with my son in the winter of 85.  It was a very snowy and cold winter.  I remember the lights going dim when the temps got to -16 at 10:00 a.m. in the morning. I lived in Nashville then and NES was on news telling folks to not crank their heat up and turn off lights and appliances.  I will never forget that Winter!   Lol!  Yeah I am old as dirt.  🤪
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 27, 2018, 06:08:02 PM
The new version of the 18zGFS was a good run for the early January system. Trending further nw on the last run. Good run for middle tn overall. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2018, 06:31:35 PM
I was pregnant with my son in the winter of 85.  It was a very snowy and cold winter.  I remember the lights going dim when the temps got to -16 at 10:00 a.m. in the morning. I lived in Nashville then and NES was on news telling folks to not crank their heat up and turn off lights and appliances.  I will never forget that Winter!   Lol!  Yeah I am old as dirt.  🤪
no your not Beth... cause I was born in 62 also ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 27, 2018, 07:35:57 PM
no your not Beth... cause I was born in 62 also ... lol

Born in Dec 65 here.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 27, 2018, 07:41:03 PM
Early 80's here , was too young to remember 85 that well... I still have some pictures of the snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 27, 2018, 07:50:33 PM
 ::lookaround::


I barely clocked into the 20th century
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 27, 2018, 08:10:56 PM
Born in Dec 65 here.


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Born in Nov 64 here. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 27, 2018, 08:49:31 PM
April of 69. We are a bunch of old farts.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 27, 2018, 09:43:14 PM
April of 69. We are a bunch of old farts.

But we grew up in a time before music went to and the winters were good


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 27, 2018, 09:50:45 PM
1.60 in the bucket. Lots more to come. Looks like we are over performing vs modeling so far. Nothing new there. Every single system since Halloween has over delivered on qpf here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 27, 2018, 10:36:36 PM
The 0Z GFS has started a NW trend for next week.  ::snowman::

(https://i.imgur.com/9YOMJxo.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 28, 2018, 06:24:04 AM
Woke up to pouring rain and 1.20" in the gauge.  Looking at the rain still to come on radar, I'd say another inch is quite possible.  Water, water everywhere, and not a drop as snow. 

And Sept/70 for me.  The decade of bell bottoms, disco, tie dye, and Scooby Doo.  The 70's were just an extension of the 60's.  Everything went to heck starting in the 80's, but the music was still good, at least. 

Post Merge: December 28, 2018, 07:13:45 AM
For those who enjoyed the ThunderShow yesterday, it looks like we could have a repeat to ring in the New Year.

Quote
For Sunday night and Monday, a strong jet/upper short-wave ejects
out of the northeast across the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.
The strong upper dynamics produces rapid and strong cyclo-genesis
that moves into the Great Lakes by late Monday. Associated cold
front will move across the region Monday afternoon/evening with a
solid band of showers and possibly thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and
gusty winds along convective band are expected.

Besides the convection, strong boundary layer jet will produce
another period of mountain wave high winds over the mountains and
foothills late Sunday night and Monday.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 28, 2018, 07:20:24 AM
Woke up to pouring rain and 1.20" in the gauge.  Looking at the rain still to come on radar, I'd say another inch is quite possible.  Water, water everywhere, and not a drop as snow. 

And Sept/70 for me.  The decade of bell bottoms, disco, tie dye, and Scooby Doo.  The 70's were just an extension of the 60's.  Everything went to heck starting in the 80's, but the music was still good, at least. 

Post Merge: December 28, 2018, 07:13:45 AM
For those who enjoyed the ThunderShow yesterday, it looks like we could have a repeat to ring in the New Year.
nothing. Beats the 80 s hair band days .. still listen to it .... ole motley crew
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on December 28, 2018, 07:25:24 AM
Well, I guess I was accurate in being concerned about power outages with this system, the lights just shut off in my neighborhood.  So much for getting ahead on work today.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 28, 2018, 07:31:06 AM
Well, I guess I was accurate in being concerned about power outages with this system, the lights just shut off in my neighborhood.  So much for getting ahead on work today.

Noticed a few pine trees down on the way to work.  Shallow rooted trees having nothing to hold on to in this saturated soil.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on December 28, 2018, 08:06:05 AM
So when the power comes back on, then goes back off a few seconds later, immediately followed by an explosion  ::wow:: (sounded like a transformer blew), that means I'm in the dark for a while, right?

Post Merge: December 28, 2018, 08:44:19 AM
...and with the power still out I just heard another transformer blow.  The utility crews have got their hands full this morning.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 28, 2018, 08:59:48 AM
So when the power comes back on, then goes back off a few seconds later, immediately followed by an explosion  ::wow:: (sounded like a transformer blew), that means I'm in the dark for a while, right?

Post Merge: December 28, 2018, 08:44:19 AM
...and with the power still out I just heard another transformer blow.  The utility crews have got their hands full this morning.

Wow.  Is the wind stronger over that way?  It's not too bad over here.  Just an occasional strong breeze. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on December 28, 2018, 09:04:30 AM
Wow.  Is the wind stronger over that way?  It's not too bad over here.  Just an occasional strong breeze.
Oddly enough we've had very little wind here, which raises questions as to what is causing the problems.  As I'm typing this the power just came back on again, so we'll see how well it holds out this time.  I'll be out and about later on and will get around the neighborhood a bit to see if I can find where we've had downed trees or other damage.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 28, 2018, 09:10:19 AM
Oddly enough we've had very little wind here, which raises questions as to what is causing the problems.  As I'm typing this the power just came back on again, so we'll see how well it holds out this time.  I'll be out and about later on and will get around the neighborhood a bit to see if I can find where we've had downed trees or other damage.

KUB map shows about 1,200 out in western Knox (or did a short while ago). 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 28, 2018, 09:27:15 AM
(ok. Got the right map this time lol)
Additional rainfall over next 24 hrs. The NAM 3k doesn't quite go out to the Mon/Tues rain. Will be interesting to see how much we get then as well.  ::drowning::

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 28, 2018, 10:56:49 AM
3.4" last night total. Lots of flooding problems this morning. Looks like another 2-4" possible early Monday through Tuesday. Maybe some wet flakes on Wednesday. River flooding is a certainty by midweek.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 28, 2018, 02:02:53 PM
Wow. 12z euro says. Hello to little rock and most central Arkansas ... double digits snowfall lol... sure some sleet
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 28, 2018, 02:27:37 PM
Wow. 12z euro says. Hello to little rock and most central Arkansas ... double digits snowfall lol... sure some sleet

Shelby and Desoto counties are also included.

(https://i.imgur.com/gxtKgbb.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 28, 2018, 02:49:25 PM
That's a very strange looking blob of heavy accumulation.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 28, 2018, 03:11:03 PM
It appears we have something to track for the first weekend of January. At last!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 28, 2018, 05:09:06 PM
That's a very strange looking blob of heavy accumulation.
Looks like a trowal/deformation axis dragging across the state. Heaviest accumulation lines up with heaviest rates in marginal temps.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 28, 2018, 06:10:59 PM
12z euro control
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181229/d65d8117566200beccbb3f6f2e18e7a5.jpg)

An upper level low thatís 5 days away. What could go wrong?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 28, 2018, 07:34:04 PM
12z euro control
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181229/d65d8117566200beccbb3f6f2e18e7a5.jpg)

An upper level low thatís 5 days away. What could go wrong?
Thatís a DW and Drifter special.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 28, 2018, 07:45:30 PM
Looks like an elephant to me.   ::pondering::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on December 28, 2018, 08:12:13 PM
hey everybody , brand new to this fantastic site....been checking It for a while but I decided to hop in :). where do you all find this fantastic winter data(snowfall overlays etc?). I have halfway decent knowledge on how to decipher gfs nam and things , but I have never known exactly where to find it lol. I always end up checking out alabamawx.com and their weather xtreme ( love james spaan )
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 28, 2018, 08:45:49 PM
hey everybody , brand new to this fantastic site....been checking It for a while but I decided to hop in :). where do you all find this fantastic winter data(snowfall overlays etc?). I have halfway decent knowledge on how to decipher gfs nam and things , but I have never known exactly where to find it lol. I always end up checking out alabamawx.com and their weather xtreme ( love james spaan )

Welcome to the conversation!  Here is one site where you can view various model data:

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/)

There are also others, like weather.us.  That's the only site that currently has Euro model data, I believe.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on December 28, 2018, 09:55:04 PM
thanks JayCee :) love love winter weather systems in here in middle Tennessee ....Big snow fan here....My fav storm was 2003...seems like I remember a ULL around Birmingham that went north almost right along I-65 and here in Lewis county we were on the west side of the storm in heavy bands moving northeast to southwest , ended up with 9 inches...was kind of a surprise track. Always seemed to me like it was the perfect track, would be plenty of cold air and a gulf low moving from around new Orleans north east to Chattanooga slamming is with moisture the entire way from the south and then on the northwest as it passes :) hoping we get one like that again soon
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 29, 2018, 07:29:29 AM
Next Thursday-Friday...
Euro and GFS are worlds apart.
So, is solution somewhere in between? If so, we might be getting some interesting weather in that time frame.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 29, 2018, 07:38:15 AM
The next run will probably look different but the 6Z FV3-GFS would be a good hit for most of West/Middle Tennessee and N. Mississippi.

(https://i.imgur.com/tyAzjsT.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/IW6RYts.png)

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 29, 2018, 08:03:00 AM
Flood warnings are widespread across GA, TN, and western NC. this morning.  With at least two more moderate/heavy rain events coming this week, flooding will continue or get worse. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 29, 2018, 08:38:53 AM
The next run will probably look different but the 6Z FV3-GFS would be a good hit for most of West/Middle Tennessee and N. Mississippi.

(https://i.imgur.com/tyAzjsT.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/IW6RYts.png)
system worth keeping a eye on that's for sure... but im little worried about temps... I know it sounds like a broken record... but we have got to tap in more cold air... course these ull do produce their own cold source... especially if their strong enough...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 29, 2018, 10:58:47 AM
Where's the sun we were supposed to see today?  It's so dark here, some street lights are still on.   ::candle::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on December 29, 2018, 01:10:02 PM
Where's the sun we were supposed to see today?  It's so dark here, some street lights are still on.   ::candle::
It just recently made an appearance here in the valley,  hopefully it will clear to the east. The rain this year hasn't been so bad,  but the days at a time without any sun really make it unpleasant.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 29, 2018, 01:42:13 PM
It just recently made an appearance here in the valley,  hopefully it will clear to the east. The rain this year hasn't been so bad,  but the days at a time without any sun really make it unpleasant.

Agree.  Dark, cloudy days with no precipitation are pointless.  If it ain't gonna precipitate, clear the way for some sunshine, please!

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 29, 2018, 01:48:42 PM
12z Euro. As said earlier if we can get somewhere in between this and the GFS.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/a6sub.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 29, 2018, 02:01:30 PM
12z Euro. As said earlier if we can get somewhere in between this and the GFS.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/a6sub.jpg)

Euro control is further south and never gets anything north if the Arkansas / Missouri border. Western and central Arkansas are crushed with a sliver of accumulating snow into western and middle Tennessee.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Jilly on December 29, 2018, 02:09:39 PM
Clifton TN NOAA radio WZ2506 is off air
Quote
653
NOUS44 KOHX 291647
PNSOHX
TNZ024-056>058-060-093>095-311700-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1047 AM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

...Clifton NOAA Weather Radio is Off the Air...

The Clifton NOAA Weather Radio transmitter...broadcasting on a
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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 29, 2018, 02:34:49 PM
Euro control is further south and never gets anything north if the Arkansas / Missouri border. Western and central Arkansas are crushed with a sliver of accumulating snow into western and middle Tennessee.
no model agreement at all on this system ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 29, 2018, 04:17:44 PM
no model agreement at all on this system ...
Kind of interesting that there isn't much agreement with any model. They have all been erractic and wild run to run.  ::guitar:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 29, 2018, 04:40:09 PM
Kind of interesting that there isn't much agreement with any model. They have all been erractic and wild run to run.  ::guitar:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Lol! Itís winter in the middle south! It is very rare when the models do agree with each other!  :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 29, 2018, 05:25:59 PM
Lol! Itís winter in the middle south! It is very rare when the models do agree with each other!  :)

Winter in the mid-south for models is like politics year round in Washington.   ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 29, 2018, 06:02:21 PM
Lol! Itís winter in the middle south! It is very rare when the models do agree with each other!  :)
Your right, but they have really been swinging from run to run on every model there seems to be no consistency within themselves. It just seems like none of them can find a handle on things even if it is wrong. It's like every run is totally different, maybe I have been looking at them to much the last few days. LOL!  ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 29, 2018, 10:30:36 PM
00Z giving a totally different solution once again... Comical
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 30, 2018, 05:29:23 AM
We just seem to be locked in a ďmehĒ pattern.

At the risk of sounding like a debbie downer, I canít tell you how many times Iíll come on weather forums and people are excited about what some model is showing from a clown map. Then, Iíll look at the NWS forecast and see 40s for highs every day through the period in question. There might be a rain/snow mix during overnight/morning forecasts when temps are colder... but even then, itís marginal, not even getting to freezing for morning lows (ground way too warm for anything).

Maybe Iím biased by the setup for classic winter storms from my youth... but, I personally donít even begin to get interested until a cold air mass with high temperatures not even expected to reach freezing gets locked into place, with an approaching storm system.

It seems like itís been a LONG time since weíve had a scenario like that. So, maybe I should lower my expectations and get excited over every outside chance.

Iím burdened by memories of storms such as in Ď85, Ď88, Ď96, etc.

(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/67751873/im-haunted-by-the-kiss-that-you-should-never-have-given-me.jpg)


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 30, 2018, 05:59:36 AM
We just seem to be locked in a ďmehĒ pattern.

At the risk of sounding like a debbie downer, I canít tell you how many times Iíll come on weather forums and people are excited about what some model is showing from a clown map. Then, Iíll look at the NWS forecast and see 40s for highs every day through the period in question. There might be a rain/snow mix during overnight/morning forecasts when temps are colder... but even then, itís marginal, not even getting to freezing for morning lows (ground way too warm for anything).

Maybe Iím biased by the setup for classic winter storms from my youth... but, I personally donít even begin to get interested until a cold air mass with high temperatures not even expected to reach freezing gets locked into place, with an approaching storm system.

It seems like itís been a LONG time since weíve had a scenario like that. So, maybe I should lower my expectations and get excited over every outside chance.

Iím burdened by memories of storms such as in Ď85, Ď88, Ď96, etc.

(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/67751873/im-haunted-by-the-kiss-that-you-should-never-have-given-me.jpg)


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outstanding post.. I really starting to think we are heading towards perhaps the most boring winter a lot of us could have even imagine ... nothing long range screams change to me either... now you know how I feel... lol

Post Merge: December 30, 2018, 06:27:12 AM
Edit... we will get a negative nao and ao ... then the colder pattern will come.... by early March into much April... then there goes the severe weather season... that seems like thatís way itís been going last few seasons...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 30, 2018, 06:27:30 AM
GFS took a big jump towards the Euro. The Euro is locked in on crushing Arkansas and southern Missouri.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/25r1sic.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 30, 2018, 07:06:20 AM
We just seem to be locked in a ďmehĒ pattern.

At the risk of sounding like a debbie downer, I canít tell you how many times Iíll come on weather forums and people are excited about what some model is showing from a clown map. Then, Iíll look at the NWS forecast and see 40s for highs every day through the period in question. There might be a rain/snow mix during overnight/morning forecasts when temps are colder... but even then, itís marginal, not even getting to freezing for morning lows (ground way too warm for anything).

Maybe Iím biased by the setup for classic winter storms from my youth... but, I personally donít even begin to get interested until a cold air mass with high temperatures not even expected to reach freezing gets locked into place, with an approaching storm system.

It seems like itís been a LONG time since weíve had a scenario like that. So, maybe I should lower my expectations and get excited over every outside chance.

Iím burdened by memories of storms such as in Ď85, Ď88, Ď96, etc.

(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/67751873/im-haunted-by-the-kiss-that-you-should-never-have-given-me.jpg)


Yoda would say, both a blessing and curse is having lived long enough to experience real winters, it is.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 30, 2018, 07:55:46 AM
EPS long range... keeps saying, what cold in January... ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 30, 2018, 08:51:40 AM
Everybody including myself is looking down the road and there is a system coming in Wednesday that could jump out and catch us looking ahead. The system has been modeled all over the place but is coming ashore today so hopefully things will get clearer.  ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 30, 2018, 09:01:50 AM
Well I guess the best we can hope for is a surprise storm somewhere down the line. Like others that are close to my age, we remember the winters of the 70ís and 80ís . We had some good ones back then probably never to be equaled, but you never know.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NashRugger on December 30, 2018, 09:54:02 AM
The longer range just shows that the cold is going to continue to be bottled up north of the border through at least the 2nd full week of the month. Warmer as a whole and a relatively fast, zonal pattern with systems potentially every 2-3 days week after next.

That said, this weaker, strung out system (as it looks now) could be a sneaker event for some but looks more probable for wintry weather NW of the mid-state. Personally, no thanks, because I move to St. Louis Friday.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 30, 2018, 09:58:34 AM
The longer range just shows that the cold is going to continue to be bottled up north of the border through at least the 2nd full week of the month. Warmer as a whole and a relatively fast, zonal pattern with systems potentially every 2-3 days week after next.

That said, this weaker, strung out system (as it looks now) could be a sneaker event for some but looks more probable for wintry weather NW of the mid-state. Personally, no thanks, because I move to St. Louis Friday.

Well you should have a better shot of seeing a little more in the way of winter weather up that way.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 30, 2018, 10:07:46 AM
Long range models may show little to be excited about, but long range can change.  The system that could bring some areas snow later this week wasn't showing up just a few days ago.

Even Joe Bastardi seems to be second guessing himself in the current pattern.  One theory he put out yesterday is that the oceans as a whole are much warmer than in the past, so El Ninos may not "work" like they used to, since there isn't much temperature gradient, or difference, between the ongoing El Nino and the rest of the Pacific Ocean basin. 

Post Merge: December 30, 2018, 10:39:09 AM
The Sun is finally making an appearance here today.  Nice to see blue instead of gray for a change. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 30, 2018, 11:55:02 AM
Models having a wonderful timing handing this. European just started running so we will get another look soon. What I see is several VERY tough things for models to, well, model, predict, do what they do. One being the s/w diving down out of Canada Wednesday into the Dakotas, and the ejection/moving of the ULL in Arizona/New Mexico. How for West does the s/w from the NW dive? How long will it take the s/w to eject, how closed off does it get.... You get my point? Phased, Partially Phased, or a Miss? How much cold gets pulled down? Where is waldo?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 30, 2018, 12:23:34 PM
It is time for me to admit my wrong about January for the most part.  I just sold you all a nice car from the dealership but now you are finding that your dream car has a lot of issues you weren't made aware of till you paid all of the money to obtain it.

Some concerns that have the potential to derail January and maybe even February and Early March (despite that being the month that El-Nino's do well in). '

1) A Very Warm Arctic: That Eurasia Snow Coverage Hypothesis may not determine when we get a rocking winter, but could a poor showing be a sign of not having a good winter.  That is interesting coverage but that area started off very slow in the fall and currently, the Arctic has been running 10 to 20 degrees above average.  This is a concern in future winters as it is thought that climate change is causing the poles to warm faster than the rest of the world.  This impacts how much cold air we have and can also flatten out the jet-stream (zonal-flow anyone) when there isn't a steep gradient between poles and the tropics. 

2) Mojo Jojo MJO  I don't know much about the MJO but there are many phases that coincide with tropical forcing and thunderstorms and this has an effect on the jet stream downstream.  In simple terms for our area Phases 7, 8, and 1 are good and Phases 3-6 are not good during the winter months.  This changes in other seasons. There is a tendency now for the MJO to stall at Phase 5.  This is pretty much the flood Canada and USA with Pacific Air phase.  Usually, it takes a few weeks to go from Phase 5 to favorable 7-8 but if it stalls it could take longer, and there is a potential for it loop backwards through those unfavorable phases.  If we want a cold and snowy period that was promised for February this cannot happen as we may be stuck back in Phase 5 or 6 by the time it is time for Fab February.  If it doesn't stall that long or loop back then we will be in the favorable phases for February and potentially Early March.   

3) Warm Oceans Everywhere  Joe Bastardi may finally be on the right page here.  Also, a warmer Atlantic could signal a powerful Bermunda/SE Ridge and that is no good.   

4) +NAO  A +NAO can signal a strong SE Ridge unless there is a very favorable to counteract it.  If the Pacific is neutral or unfavorable then a +NAO leads to our friend the SE Ridge. 

With that being said it is too early to cancel winter at this time.  Even the underperforming 1994-95 and 2006-07 had a cold February and if the MJO progresses through Phases 7-1 then we should have cold enough air and with an active subtropical jet potentially several winter threats.  So MJO it is up to you is it going to be Fab February or Flop February?  Until then maybe we can time an ULL just right.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 30, 2018, 12:26:21 PM
Euro vs GFS still.... Not even close to procreating together.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 30, 2018, 12:32:51 PM
GEFS show some NW TN and W KY hits.  The Euro is on the NW Trend and the GFS is confused with the 2-4th system.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 30, 2018, 12:35:48 PM
Long range models may show little to be excited about, but long range can change.  The system that could bring some areas snow later this week wasn't showing up just a few days ago.

Even Joe Bastardi seems to be second guessing himself in the current pattern.  One theory he put out yesterday is that the oceans as a whole are much warmer than in the past, so El Ninos may not "work" like they used to, since there isn't much temperature gradient, or difference, between the ongoing El Nino and the rest of the Pacific Ocean basin. 

Post Merge: December 30, 2018, 10:39:09 AM
The Sun is finally making an appearance here today.  Nice to see blue instead of gray for a change.

I don't buy know if I buy that Bastardi theory. Not every modoki behaves the same way. There are other drivers. One of the fun things about weather, as much as they know there are still plenty of surprises.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 30, 2018, 12:35:49 PM
Ukmet completely backs up the euroís trend for a more northward swing. I would expect the gfs to eventually catch on. I donít see a lot of positives here. Euro basically just took the snow band just south of Kansas City with nothing even in Arkansas now.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 30, 2018, 01:57:15 PM
Euro control went from an Arkansas snow storm at this time yesterday to an I 44 snowstorm and Chicago blizzard. Yep. Oklahoma City and Tulsa.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 30, 2018, 02:57:08 PM
Today got up to a balmy 59.  I'm not complaining.  It is what it is.  At least the heat pump is sitting silent today. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 30, 2018, 04:01:54 PM
Today got up to a balmy 59.  I'm not complaining.  It is what it is.  At least the heat pump is sitting silent today.
It was sunny and warm when we got out of Church today. I took my granddaughter and her bestfriend to the park. After a couple of hours the clouds rolled in and got chilly.  But still, getting to play at a park on Dec. 30 was not bad. This time last year it was bitterly cold here.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NashRugger on December 30, 2018, 04:56:23 PM
18Z GFS run was complete and utter garbage as it made no sense with any of the previous multiple runs.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 30, 2018, 05:06:26 PM
Its becoming difficult to discern any pattern with all the model flip flopping.  Even the usually decent Euro seems lost lately, shifting from a eastern trough to a ridge and in between.   ::shrug::


This New Year's eve will be eons apart from last year's cold.  Updated forecast has us 71 tomorrow after the rain departs.  No snow flurries this time to ring in the New Year.  Just mud. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 30, 2018, 07:12:48 PM
Need the rain to get in here quick and help out the Titans
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 30, 2018, 07:33:20 PM
Need the rain to get in here quick and help out the Titans
yea... because. Luck is throwing darts ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 30, 2018, 08:48:45 PM
Iím glad the heavy rain has been moved off to Thursday. Gives our larger streams some time to get out of flood stage. TVA is going to have their hands full with the TN river though.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 30, 2018, 11:51:27 PM
Need the rain to get in here quick and help out the Titans
Unfortunately it did not get to Nashville quick enough. Another year of no play offs for the Titans and another winter ofno snow except some wimpy flurries if we are lucky. Nothing ever changes. Maybe next year!  :-\
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 31, 2018, 03:19:26 AM
Unfortunately it did not get to Nashville quick enough. Another year of no play offs for the Titans and another winter ofno snow except some wimpy flurries if we are lucky. Nothing ever changes. Maybe next year!  :-\

Yeah no kidding. Current pattern is hot garbage. I'd even say we'll be lucky to see any flurries.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NismoWx on December 31, 2018, 04:52:16 AM
Iím glad the heavy rain has been moved off to Thursday. Gives our larger streams some time to get out of flood stage. TVA is going to have their hands full with the TN river though.
They have been moving A LOT of water this week, but it's already been raining since 6-7pm last night on the lower TN. The Valley still has at least another 12hrs of it today.

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 31, 2018, 06:30:33 AM
Unfortunately it did not get to Nashville quick enough. Another year of no play offs for the Titans and another winter ofno snow except some wimpy flurries if we are lucky. Nothing ever changes. Maybe next year!  :-\
Are you forgetting that they not only made the playoffs last year, but beat the Chiefs in the first round?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2018, 07:47:27 AM
You can tell this winter blows.... we are talking sports in a winter thread .... lmao....

Post Merge: December 31, 2018, 07:52:02 AM
Edit... o I know there is a slight risk for severe wx for parts midsouth... without even looking at model data ... this threat  ::sleeping::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on December 31, 2018, 08:00:08 AM
Wow... we picked up 2.59 inches of rain over night.  I was not expecting that much.  We have had 12.58 inches of rain so far this December with more likely before midnight. 

This has been one of the wettest years I can remember.  We have received 45.73 inches of rain just since June 1st (when I installed my weather station).  Given the wet spring, I know the year's total out here must be close to 60 inches. ::drowning::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 31, 2018, 08:33:23 AM
I wonder if the exceptionally warm oceans are playing a part in the current wet times.  Warm oceans = a lot more water vapor in the atmosphere and more to rain out.  This has been the wettest year on record for a broad area over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and much of the east.  That's saying something.

In other news, looks like a spring-like day near 70 and breezy winds.  If ya can't beat it, might as well enjoy it.  I'm firing up the grill for a New Year's feast and spending the day BUG FREE on the deck--something I can't do in the summer.  Happy New Year everybody!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 31, 2018, 09:19:07 AM
Hold on to the Canadian, it is still showing backside snow on the 3-4th system. ::rofl:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 31, 2018, 09:49:21 AM
Louisville and Lexington, KY have both recorded all time record wet years twice this decade, including 2018.  That's big.  Something is really up with the climate when records that used to stand for 40-50+ years are suddenly being broken twice within just 5 years of each other.  Both cities are ending the year with a 20"+ surplus (Lexington is actually 25+).  That's insane. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2018, 09:55:54 AM
Louisville and Lexington, KY have both recorded all time record wet years twice this decade, including 2018.  That's big.  Something is really up with the climate when records that used to stand for 40-50+ years are suddenly being broken twice within just 5 years of each other.  Both cities are ending the year with a 20"+ surplus (Lexington is actually 25+).  That's insane.
tell you whatís up with it... do I dare to say ....lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NismoWx on December 31, 2018, 10:10:10 AM
My goal was to beat the line out of Memphis this morning, and I have done it! Have to stop in Jackson on the way back to BNA but I should be able to beat the line back to the house. It is definitely windy out in front of it though. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181231/b59ce47fa2fdba6d4bdced11b694c9af.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 31, 2018, 10:36:07 AM
It's been raining for 16 hours here in Memphis. I plan to go downtown after all of this rain tapers off around 2:00
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 31, 2018, 11:33:51 AM
Louisville and Lexington, KY have both recorded all time record wet years twice this decade, including 2018.  That's big.  Something is really up with the climate when records that used to stand for 40-50+ years are suddenly being broken twice within just 5 years of each other.  Both cities are ending the year with a 20"+ surplus (Lexington is actually 25+).  That's insane.

There have been many significant changes on our neighboring planets, our sun, and on our own planet. Something is definitely going on, what it is no one knows. Been reading lately on the 11,500 year cataclysmic theory. Very interesting.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NismoWx on December 31, 2018, 11:59:58 AM
TOR Warning east of Paducah. Line caught me in Jackson.. It's rough!

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 31, 2018, 12:10:04 PM
TOR Warning east of Paducah. Line caught me in Jackson.. It's rough!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

We have a thread for this. Canít believe this isnít being talked about more with most people being off today
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 31, 2018, 12:29:49 PM
Southern Colorado and New Mexico are definitely the winners so far this winter
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2018, 12:33:01 PM
Southern Colorado and New Mexico are definitely the winners so far this winter
yeah. And thatís not good for winter lovers here... means trough been hanging out west ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 31, 2018, 12:57:31 PM
Looks like we might have a chance to dry out some after this week.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/1zcczr6.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on December 31, 2018, 12:59:41 PM
We have a thread for this. Canít believe this isnít being talked about more with most people being off today

meh.  It's just a big squall line.  Ones this long are almost always outflow dominant and produce winds strong enough to be annoying at most and there are here and gone in 15 minutes.  Occasionally you can get a bowed segment that catches up with the outflow to produce stronger winds and occasional Tornadoes.  Plus low end severe events in the cold months is just annoying.  I want snow and winter mode systems.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 31, 2018, 01:23:49 PM
There have been many significant changes on our neighboring planets, our sun, and on our own planet. Something is definitely going on, what it is no one knows. Been reading lately on the 11,500 year cataclysmic theory. Very interesting.

Didn't mean to cause boardwide panic.  All this has happened before and will happen again.  We just "happen" to be here to witness it this go around.  No need to move underground.  Yet.  ::evillaugh::


(And no, I didn't take your statement as anything more than hyperbole).
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on December 31, 2018, 01:31:30 PM
There have been many significant changes on our neighboring planets, our sun, and on our own planet. Something is definitely going on, what it is no one knows. Been reading lately on the 11,500 year cataclysmic theory. Very interesting.

Is it based on 100% science and no opinions or conspiracy theories?  A good litmus test if this is if 'Nibru' is mentioned in any serious context. 
I may be interested in reading about it if is scientific.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2018, 01:55:57 PM
Is it based on 100% science and no opinions or conspiracy theories?  A good litmus test if this is if 'Nibru' is mentioned in any serious context. 
I may be interested in reading about it if is scientific.
well. I can tell you by experience ... winters arenít as no where cold as it used to be ...call it what I want ... but that is fact . This year alone across the coutnry top 3 warmest ever ... average wise ... it is what it is ... not a thing we can really do about it except remenenc about the good ole winters ... thank god everyday during winter I got to experience many great winters ... as a child especially ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 31, 2018, 02:34:26 PM
Is it based on 100% science and no opinions or conspiracy theories?  A good litmus test if this is if 'Nibru' is mentioned in any serious context. 
I may be interested in reading about it if is scientific.

You can watch for yourself if you like and form your own opinion. I personally find it interesting. I've been following Ben Davidson's Suspicious 0bservers channel for a few years now. This is part 4 of his Earth Catastrophe series.

https://youtu.be/jTUJ7GtEx0Y (https://youtu.be/jTUJ7GtEx0Y)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on December 31, 2018, 02:41:36 PM
I will check that out snowdog. Thanks.  I used to be a critic of global warming or climate change.  I totally agree something has changed with the climate. 

Post Merge: December 31, 2018, 02:42:46 PM
Flooding is going to be a major concern as we move into spring.  Actually already is.  I heard the Cumberland River is at flood stage already.  Is this true?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 31, 2018, 03:00:20 PM
You can watch for yourself if you like and form your own opinion. I personally find it interesting. I've been following Ben Davidson's Suspicious 0bservers channel for a few years now. This is part 4 of his Earth Catastrophe series.

https://youtu.be/jTUJ7GtEx0Y (https://youtu.be/jTUJ7GtEx0Y)


Sorry, I simply thought you were doing the usual tongue-in-cheek thing with your reply.  It happens a lot here.

Our climate has changed, and there have been extreme events recorded going all the way back to 536 AD.  Are we in the midst of such an event slowly creeping on us?  Maybe.  Are we at least partially responsible?  I would vote yes, because take one trip to the local landfill and you will see what our greed and wastefulness is doing.  If anything is wrecking havoc on the planet, it's man's insatiable desire to find satisfaction in material things, instead of learning contentment with less.  Heaven help us in America if someday we are actually deprived of anything.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 31, 2018, 03:10:52 PM
^^ The extreme weather events of 535-536 AD are believed to have induced the First Plague Pandemic a few years later in 541, when half of Constantinople died of the Plague of Justinian.

Similarly, the Late Medieval climactic shift contributed to the Great Famine and the lethality of the Black Death in the 14th century. It's incredible how just a seemingly tiny fluctuation in temperature can depopulate humanity. Even just a 1 degree Celsius drop in average temperatures has been responsible for some of the worst famines in human history.

It's so cool how we can use tree rings and archaeology to figure this stuff out.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 31, 2018, 03:21:21 PM
^^ The extreme weather events of 535-536 AD are believed to have induced the First Plague Pandemic a few years later in 541, when half of Constantinople died of the Plague of Justinian.

Similarly, the Late Medieval climactic shift contributed to the Great Famine and the lethality of the Black Death in the 14th century. It's incredible how just a seemingly tiny fluctuation in temperature can depopulate humanity. Even just a 1 degree Celsius drop in average temperatures has been responsible for some of the worst famines in human history.

It's so cool how we can use tree rings and archaeology to figure this stuff out.


I've always found climate change/history extremely interesting.  And there are so many variables to investigate, from sunspot cycles to Milankovitch cycles, which has to do with changes in Earth's orbit and wobbles in Earth's axis.  Fun to examine and study.  We actually live in an extreme time in Earth's climate history--in the fact it's extremely stable.  For most of Earth's existence, a stable climate was not the norm.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 31, 2018, 03:42:03 PM

I've always found climate change/history extremely interesting.  And there are so many variables to investigate, from sunspot cycles to Milankovitch cycles, which has to do with changes in Earth's orbit and wobbles in Earth's axis.  Fun to examine and study.  We actually live in an extreme time in Earth's climate history--in the fact it's extremely stable.  For most of Earth's existence, a stable climate was not the norm.

You'll probably enjoy Ben's channel then. Also the Thunderbolt Project channel is interesting as well.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 31, 2018, 04:28:53 PM
To all my weather peeps here:

(http://girlondesktop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/images-on-happy-new-year-2019.jpg)

Wow, I never would've thought I would make it this far.   ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 31, 2018, 09:21:56 PM
Happy New Year everyone! I think our patience with the winter weather is still going to pay off after mid month. I am still a fan of the Mid January-Mid Feb timeframe! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on December 31, 2018, 10:09:50 PM
Happy new year.  Here's to a snow rich 2019 in our near future.  My new years resolution is to see a whole lot more snow.  I won't let you guys down.  ::guitar:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 31, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
Happy New Year.  Things will come together in the last half of January and continue in February. Book it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2018, 11:26:33 PM
Happy new year everyone.... 2019 will be the year the Tennessee Vols will cut Down the nets down in Minneapolis... for their first ever national championship....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on January 01, 2019, 12:14:33 AM
Happy New Year to everyone!

Hopefully an active Winter weather pattern will develop soon and we can all track some Winter storms together. In the mean time, here's a short video of the 1/6/2017 event.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2au2tcuAP-w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2au2tcuAP-w)


Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on January 01, 2019, 08:13:17 AM
Happy New Years Everyone, a holiday in which I slept through because I am in my boring adult phase of life lol.  May we be blessed with snow once we finally hit our winter pattern sometime.  Until then enjoy family, friends, your weather companions, looking at snow cams from the Southwestern USA, and this stretch of mild weather.     
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: justinmundie on January 01, 2019, 08:52:26 AM
You can watch for yourself if you like and form your own opinion. I personally find it interesting. I've been following Ben Davidson's Suspicious 0bservers channel for a few years now. This is part 4 of his Earth Catastrophe series.

https://youtu.be/jTUJ7GtEx0Y (https://youtu.be/jTUJ7GtEx0Y)

Well thatís terrifying. Thanks for that. ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 01, 2019, 09:45:33 AM
Happy New Year folks, it's time to put on the patience and keep looking ahead for the dominos to start setting us up for a good back half of winter!!!!! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: Jan 15-Feb 15 bring down the goods!!!!!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 01, 2019, 10:53:31 AM
Have no fear folks, Bastardi is tweeting comparisons to 77-78. Says look out for second half of January through March.   ::pondering::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 01, 2019, 11:08:56 AM
Have no fear folks, Bastardi is tweeting comparisons to 77-78. Says look out for second half of January through March.   ::pondering::
if we get any where near  77  78 repeat here... I will  not make another post on this forum... lol   and yall know I like to talk...lol ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 01, 2019, 11:17:52 AM
if we get any where near  77  78 repeat here... I will make not make another post on this forum... lol   and yall know I like to talk...lol ::rofl::

Luckily, considering Bastardi's track record, I think you are safe. Although, I do generally agree with him, I think we see a cold and active period during that time but not to the extent of 77-78.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 01, 2019, 12:41:40 PM
Luckily, considering Bastardi's track record, I think you are safe. Although, I do generally agree with him, I think we see a cold and active period during that time but not to the extent of 77-78.
Yep throwing out 77-78 like that gets old JB. ::rofl:: It's time to back it up with results. I will be happy with half of what 77 or 78 delivered. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 01, 2019, 12:43:28 PM
Have no fear folks, Bastardi is tweeting comparisons to 77-78. Says look out for second half of January through March.   ::pondering::

Man is grasping at straws


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 01, 2019, 12:48:17 PM
Have no fear folks, Bastardi is tweeting comparisons to 77-78. Says look out for second half of January through March.   ::pondering::

Did Bruce hack his account?
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 01, 2019, 02:01:11 PM
I will post emoticons first since this is usually my reaction to a SSW.

The SSW is taking place today and it is HUGE. 65 out of 65 GEFS members split the vortex- meaning a displacement wonít occur. If you want winter to take off and itís due to a SSW- the split with one over Scandinavia and the other over northeastern Canada is what one wants. This scenario in the past has tanked the AO and NAO. With a decreasing SOI, the pacific/ MJO should start to cooperate soon. Models struggle with the effects of a split- mostly because it hasnít happened yet. This should straighten out by mid month and we should get a better picture of where we go.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 01, 2019, 04:06:27 PM
I will post emoticons first since this is usually my reaction to a SSW.

The SSW is taking place today and it is HUGE. 65 out of 65 GEFS members split the vortex- meaning a displacement wonít occur. If you want winter to take off and itís due to a SSW- the split with one over Scandinavia and the other over northeastern Canada is what one wants. This scenario in the past has tanked the AO and NAO. With a decreasing SOI, the pacific/ MJO should start to cooperate soon. Models struggle with the effects of a split- mostly because it hasnít happened yet. This should straighten out by mid month and we should get a better picture of where we go.
Curt, is that your commentary/observation?

Also, what is the time frame of the split?  Generally, there's a considerable lag between a split and the onset of cold. 
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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 01, 2019, 04:08:35 PM
I will post emoticons first since this is usually my reaction to a SSW.

The SSW is taking place today and it is HUGE. 65 out of 65 GEFS members split the vortex- meaning a displacement wonít occur. If you want winter to take off and itís due to a SSW- the split with one over Scandinavia and the other over northeastern Canada is what one wants. This scenario in the past has tanked the AO and NAO. With a decreasing SOI, the pacific/ MJO should start to cooperate soon. Models struggle with the effects of a split- mostly because it hasnít happened yet. This should straighten out by mid month and we should get a better picture of where we go.
hearing. Word. On streets. Is EPS is finally starting to bend towards very cold in long range.  We see how it holds or not
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on January 01, 2019, 04:15:46 PM
Might be able to squeak 1-2 inches of snow in at least parts of Tuscon, Arizona.  I am kinda happy for them because they do get snow, but it is very rare.   

As far as the models go we will have to wait and see.  The SSW along with any pattern change is going to drive our weather models insane during the coming days.  It is going to take several days for us to see how the second half of the month will play out.  I would try not to get too bent out of shape about any long-range model runs (on either side of the cold/warm aisle) in the coming days.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 01, 2019, 05:55:47 PM
Yep throwing out 77-78 like that gets old JB. ::rofl:: It's time to back it up with results. I will be happy with half of what 77 or 78 delivered. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

I'd be happy with the 1981-2010 average. Less and less these days as the years go by
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on January 01, 2019, 06:46:24 PM
Something between 2006-07 and 2014-15 (both had warm Decembers pretty much nationwide as this one did) seems to be the most reasonable strictly on an analog basis. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 01, 2019, 08:15:47 PM
Curt, is that your commentary/observation?

Also, what is the time frame of the split?  Generally, there's a considerable lag between a split and the onset of cold. 
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Just reading from experts, a split like the one forecast is more associated with a negative AO and NAO.  Does it mean more snow and ice IMBY? Not a clue there although chances would certainly be on the uptick. The lag time for propagation to the surface is usually 2-3 weeks. If this has been a displacement, I would be far less confident than a split.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 01, 2019, 10:18:14 PM
Just reading from experts, a split like the one forecast is more associated with a negative AO and NAO.  Does it mean more snow and ice IMBY? Not a clue there although chances would certainly be on the uptick. The lag time for propagation to the surface is usually 2-3 weeks. If this has been a displacement, I would be far less confident than a split.
Thanks.  The pattern change will likely lead to a powerful storm.  That could be a golden for someone.  Obviously, it would be nice if the I40 or I69 corridors got jackpotted on this one.

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 02, 2019, 07:07:20 AM
SSW events and Polar vortex splits don't always produce for us, but  ::fingerscrossed::.  I think there was a big one hyped up 2 years ago (?), but the Arctic gates only opened in the Eastern Hemisphere, leaving the West to watch Europe and Russia get hammered, while we got nada.   Even so, it's only January 2nd with plenty of winter left, including the climatologically coldest part in 3 weeks or so.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 02, 2019, 08:27:57 AM
At least there's something- don't even know if the players are on the field for us yet, but at least we know there's probably going to be a game somewhere. It will be interesting to see how the effects of this SSW event unfold.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 02, 2019, 08:45:36 AM
The GFS does show one of the vortices (or vortexes) drifting into northeastern Canada after the split, while two more split off over Europe and Asia.  At least that puts one on our side of the globe to play with. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on January 02, 2019, 09:25:22 AM
First off, happy new year to my weather family :)

Second I don't even care about snow anymore. I just want the rain to stop because its killing my golf game.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 02, 2019, 09:27:13 AM
First off, happy new year to my weather family :)

Second I don't even care about snow anymore. I just want the rain to stop because its killing my golf game.




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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 02, 2019, 10:28:36 AM
This is one gloomy day weather wise....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 02, 2019, 10:55:04 AM
Considering the current pattern, it will probably be cloudy and not visible, but we have a total lunar eclipse occurring during a Supermoon on 1/20-21.  The Moon goes total just before midnight, so it occurs at a semi-reasonable time for working stiffs like me.  Even better for you folks on CST. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on January 02, 2019, 11:11:32 AM
This is one gloomy day weather wise....

It was a gloomy December. It's only fitting that January starts off the same way.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 02, 2019, 01:11:24 PM
Man the 12 z euro is just a lather ... rinse ... repeat .... pattern meh....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 02, 2019, 02:15:08 PM
Euro at day 10 looks good. Snow for all until 0z
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 02, 2019, 02:33:39 PM
EPS still way to warm ... long range meh
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on January 02, 2019, 04:57:05 PM
Thank God it's raining again. I was beginning to worry about drought.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on January 02, 2019, 11:10:27 PM
Like the Old timers use to say ďyou think the rainís gonna hurt the rhubarb?Ē   :laugh:
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 03, 2019, 12:18:11 AM
EPS still way to warm ... long range meh

From what I have read and seen the EPS has been terrible at anything over 10 days.  Itís scores are worse than almost all.  At day 15 it is not even in ball park.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 03, 2019, 05:52:39 AM
Until EPS comes around... I m going not get to excited ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 03, 2019, 05:55:58 AM
Like the Old timers use to say ďyou think the rainís gonna hurt the rhubarb?Ē   :laugh:

Ha- had to look that one up. Itís new to me.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 03, 2019, 06:49:10 AM
Like the Old timers use to say ďyou think the rainís gonna hurt the rhubarb?Ē   :laugh:

Wow, that brought back good memories.  My grandmother (granny) raised rhubarb in her yard (among lots of things I wouldn't eat), and would make that comment from time to time with a chuckle.  She was born in 1913, so I guess she heard that a lot growing up.  I have many fond memories of sitting on her porch helping her and my sisters string green beans, listening to stories of her past, including Appalachian winters far harsher than any I've experienced.  Good times. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 03, 2019, 06:52:52 AM
The problem this winter appears to be the pacific ... the pacific is just over whelming .. zonal flow coming from pacific causing all the rain n dampness ... until we can get the pacific hose to shut off... going be fairly hard to get a good artic cold come down our region ... ::bangingheadintowall::

Post Merge: January 03, 2019, 07:50:59 AM
On my way to work this morning ... notice pulling out the driveway ... my headlights were on my yard ... couldnít help notice stems of green wildish grass trying come out the ground already ... I never seen grass actually grow like this so early January ... 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 03, 2019, 07:56:21 AM
The problem this winter appears to be the pacific ... the pacific is just over whelming .. zonal flow coming from pacific causing all the rain n dampness ... until we can get the pacific hose to shut off... going be fairly hard to get a good artic cold come down our region ... ::bangingheadintowall::

Post Merge: January 03, 2019, 07:50:59 AM
On my way to work this morning ... notice pulling out the driveway ... my headlights were on my yard ... couldnít help notice stems of green wildish grass trying come out the ground already ... I never seen grass actually grow like this so early January ...
Yep... (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190103/411690f5798480fd477582a9d6e5546d.jpg)

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 03, 2019, 07:57:19 AM
@poolz1
winds continue to reverse today , the record on this date is -12.2 from JB's buddy winter,  good ole 1985. Don't laugh there are some similarities , now we stand at -5.3
More

The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -5.3 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -12.2 m/s 1985 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 62.6 m/s 1989

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 03, 2019, 08:32:42 AM
The problem this winter appears to be the pacific ... the pacific is just over whelming .. zonal flow coming from pacific causing all the rain n dampness ... until we can get the pacific hose to shut off... going be fairly hard to get a good artic cold come down our region ... ::bangingheadintowall::

Post Merge: January 03, 2019, 07:50:59 AM
On my way to work this morning ... notice pulling out the driveway ... my headlights were on my yard ... couldnít help notice stems of green wildish grass trying come out the ground already ... I never seen grass actually grow like this so early January ...

This level of warmth (60's & 70's) is actually bad for most deciduous trees and plants.  It triggers the sap to start flowing up the tree from the roots, and if we get exceptionally cold again (near 0), it causes that sap to freeze and damage the cambium layer in the trunk and branches.  It can even kill trees.  I've seen it happen going all the way back to '84, when our mild December gave way to the record cold January.  Several large maple trees in our yard didn't leaf out in the spring and died.  I noticed it again as recent as the 2014-15 winter, when we had the bitter cold in February after a mild January.  Several oak trees around my house struggled, and the next summer I noticed chunks of bark peeling off at the base where the freezing took place.  So, this mild weather in January is just plain bad, and not only because it can't snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 03, 2019, 09:23:09 AM
Meantime.  While we soaked in rain.  Winter storm warning out for Oklahoma City ... 4 to 8 inches snow wilt higher Local amounts .. must be nice ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 03, 2019, 09:26:44 AM
Meantime.  While we soaked in rain.  Winter storm warning out for Oklahoma City ... 4 to 8 inches snow wilt higher Local amounts .. must be nice ...

After their huge bust last month, Iíll let them have this one.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 03, 2019, 10:25:17 AM
 ::blowtorch:: Well, this is pretty good weather for outdoor activities.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 03, 2019, 12:02:58 PM
Watching news on line... they warning people over in Europe that record breaking cold air is on way within week ... thanks to big ssw event ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 03, 2019, 12:33:28 PM
Watching news on line... they warning people over in Europe that record breaking cold air is on way within week ... thanks to big ssw event ...

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/atmospheric-phenomenon-could-bring-severe-wintry-weather-to-suffolk-and-north-essex-1-5836013 (https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/atmospheric-phenomenon-could-bring-severe-wintry-weather-to-suffolk-and-north-essex-1-5836013)

It could be UK / European media is more in tune to this because the last one affected that part of the globe. Only a matter of time to see how this one plays out.

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 03, 2019, 01:23:08 PM
::blowtorch:: Well, this is pretty good weather for outdoor activities.

If you're a 

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/5Nj2BngIko0/maxresdefault.jpg)

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 03, 2019, 06:20:55 PM
Praise the Lord- we're drying out after tomorrow for almost an entire week. And just in time for the weekend!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 03, 2019, 08:12:05 PM
EPS weeklies go cold between the 21-28 and are downright frigid for the 5 following weeks. If thatís correct the last week and January and esp into February look frigid.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 03, 2019, 08:59:46 PM
Pulling for a winter wonderland last half of January and a rocking Febuary! ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 03, 2019, 09:19:05 PM
EPS weeklies go cold between the 21-28 and are downright frigid for the 5 following weeks. If thatís correct the last week and January and esp into February look frigid.

Be nice to get a snow on the front side of the pattern change....and a few more thoughout, lol.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 03, 2019, 09:55:01 PM
Thus far, this winter reminds me of 2014-2015.

Nov. 2014 and Nov. 2018: Record cold for the Eastern U.S., accompanied by a rare early snowfall for several Deep South and Appalachian cities.

Dec. 2014 and Dec. 2018: Shift to a milder, wetter pattern. Mild Christmas.

Jan. 2015 and Jan. 2019: Warm start.

We all remember February 2015. Maybe it'll repeat itself this year without all the ice. ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 03, 2019, 10:14:20 PM
Seeing live spiders still active outside... thatís just not right for early January...


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on January 03, 2019, 10:35:43 PM
I think the stink bugs know that it is going to get cold soon as they keep trying to make their way inside. Hate those bugs! 😡
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 03, 2019, 11:27:24 PM
Honestly, I didn't notice Dec. being that overly warm. What was the temp anomaly?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2019, 04:23:07 AM
Be nice to get a snow on the front side of the pattern change....and a few more thoughout, lol.
few more lol... be happy we just get one these winters we have now...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 04, 2019, 07:17:50 AM
Honestly, I didn't notice Dec. being that overly warm. What was the temp anomaly?

Knoxville ended the month exactly 3.0+.  Overnight lows were more anomalous than daytime highs (nearly 5+ for the month verses 1.4 during the day). 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on January 04, 2019, 07:27:05 AM
Knoxville ended the month exactly 3.0+.  Overnight lows were more anomalous than daytime highs (nearly 5+ for the month verses 1.4 during the day).

Nashville finished at +4.6, and no, there wasn't a real blowtorch feel to it. Very warm on New Year's Eve and a day or two at the begining of the month. Other than that it was quite benign.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2019, 07:52:05 AM
Knoxville ended the month exactly 3.0+.  Overnight lows were more anomalous than daytime highs (nearly 5+ for the month verses 1.4 during the day).

Interesting. Thanks.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on January 04, 2019, 08:11:36 AM
Overall I'm still in delayed but not denied mode for our winter. Give me a good week or two of cold and snow in the late Jan thru Feb period and I'll be satisfied. Just watched DT's update and he has some good explanations for what is going on:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OietW1ud-to

Even JB has openly admitted his January forecast is going to bust. He gets called out for his eternal optimism for winter weather but I think his recent updates have been pretty good at explaining the reasoning for the delay in potential.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Flash on January 04, 2019, 08:26:33 AM
Overall I'm still in delayed but not denied mode for our winter. Give me a good week or two of cold and snow in the late Jan thru Feb period and I'll be satisfied. Just watched DT's update and he has some good explanations for what is going on:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OietW1ud-to

Even JB has openly admitted his January forecast is going to bust. He gets called out for his eternal optimism for winter weather but I think his recent updates have been pretty good at explaining the reasoning for the delay in potential.

I concur. Great video by DT. Cites his sources and blends the info in ways most can understand. While I agree with the graphic below, still way too early to discern the LR one way or another.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 04, 2019, 08:30:42 AM
Overall I'm still in delayed but not denied mode for our winter. Give me a good week or two of cold and snow in the late Jan thru Feb period and I'll be satisfied. Just watched DT's update and he has some good explanations for what is going on:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OietW1ud-to

Even JB has openly admitted his January forecast is going to bust. He gets called out for his eternal optimism for winter weather but I think his recent updates have been pretty good at explaining the reasoning for the delay in potential.

2 weeks of cold and several 3"+ snowfalls, and I'm happy.  That's 2014-15 in a nutshell--two weeks of cold in mid-February and plenty of active weather.  The only preference I would add is the snow occurs toward mid January into early February when the Great Snow Eater is lower in the sky and has less power to melt what falls.  By late winter, the sun can melt snow even on a cloudy day. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2019, 09:25:47 AM
I concur. Great video by DT. Cites his sources and blends the info in ways most can understand. While I agree with the graphic below, still way too early to discern the LR one way or another.

I don't like the Pac Jet and I don't like the MJO forecast going back into the eye, unless it comes back out in Phase 7 or 8 and makes it through Phase 2.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 04, 2019, 09:32:30 AM
SOI is tanking well into negative territory. Thatís a decent sign for Pacific change in a couple weeks. Thereís always a lag in response so it wonít be immediate.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 04, 2019, 09:55:55 AM
SOI is tanking well into negative territory. Thatís a decent sign for Pacific change in a couple weeks. Thereís always a lag in response so it wonít be immediate.
Curt could you add your thoughts on the Asian Mountain tourque event that supposedly should or may slow down the pacific firehouse. I don't know much about it but on the American forum I was reading where it was showing up on medium range models now and folks are liking that feature.  ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 04, 2019, 10:03:18 AM
Curt could you add your thoughts on the Asian Mountain tourque event.

Is this turkey hunting, but only Asian style???
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 04, 2019, 10:05:49 AM
Everything I am reading and seeing on models show in around the 10th-12th colder air will start making it here.  By the 2th-22nd the cold will be taken hold.  As Curt said by end of month frigid.  Now hopefully the moisture does not vanish also.  Maybe we will get a snow that sticks around for awhile.  All indications by mid month well into February will be cold.  So letís enjoy this coming warm weekend.  Just maybe we will have some late night winter storms to track soon enough. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 04, 2019, 10:35:16 AM
For it to be January Folks just to our west in north central Arkansas are missing a golden opportunity atm.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on January 04, 2019, 11:15:56 AM
So this may be happening (image subject to change):
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_2d0.png)
Unheard of in the Eastern Pacific this time of year.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 04, 2019, 11:43:00 AM
For it to be January Folks just to our west in north central Arkansas are missing a golden opportunity atm.

What's going on there?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2019, 11:54:04 AM
I just hope this water hose donít shut off whe the cold air settles in here.... if it donít ... we will be in business ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 04, 2019, 12:17:02 PM
What's going on there?
Look at radar. Backside of the ULL
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on January 04, 2019, 02:54:07 PM
Certainly looks like it will be turning cold late in the month and into February.  I am worried we end up on the back side of the troughs though and get the brutal cold, but with no moisture except what ever scraps the northern stream throws at us. In and of itself, this isn't terrible, we have had some decent events from the northern stream in the past but you will never get the big one like this. 

All that said, until that Pacific jet calms down we aren't getting any cold air.  If is slows down and buckles over the next 10 days or so we are in business, but if not it may be time for  winter = ::cliff:: . 

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on January 04, 2019, 03:37:15 PM
Getting some good and unexpected thunder with the line moving into west Knoxville right now.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 04, 2019, 03:49:07 PM
Getting some good and unexpected thunder with the line moving into west Knoxville right now.
Bone chilling 40 degree light rain here. Should be snow. >:(
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 04, 2019, 05:00:44 PM
As to my west in Knoxville, 61 here with some pretty strong thunderstorms coming through.  Lightning is intense for January.

I guess this is a cold front coming through.  Only 53 in Knoxville now.  Man, the wind is intense.  This is a real squall line--more like something we see in spring.  Sounds awful in the trees, currently.  I would say this is near severe criteria. 
 


Post Merge: January 04, 2019, 05:14:26 PM
Power blinking off/on now and even some small hail falling.  Wind is crazy right now, and rain coming down in sheets.  Storms developed right over the area.  Bruce would be in heaven.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/s664ag.gif)

Post Merge: January 04, 2019, 05:24:52 PM
Todd Howell on WBIR just reported that TYS recorded a 58 mph wind gust as these storms developed and moved through.  I believe it.  He also stated that 3,800 are without power in Knox Co.  Wind finally easing off a bit, but still gusting well over 25 mph at times.  Temp dropped from 61 to 49 in about 15 minutes. 

Post Merge: January 04, 2019, 05:44:51 PM
Warnings did eventually get issued, but in counties beyond where the storms initially occurred.

Quote
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Morristown TN
636 PM EST FRI JAN 4 2019

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Hawkins County in east Tennessee...
  Northwestern Greene County in east Tennessee...
  Eastern Hamblen County in east Tennessee...

* Until 715 PM EST.

* At 635 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Russellville,
  or 8 miles east of Morristown, moving north at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.


Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 04, 2019, 07:36:34 PM
Seasonal cold is kicking in next week, and with it comes dry air. I'm ready for it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 04, 2019, 07:39:40 PM
Seasonal cold is kicking in next week, and with it comes dry air. I'm ready for it.

I will take a sleetfest anytime!


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 04, 2019, 09:05:34 PM
I will take a sleetfest anytime!


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What's not to love about tiny spheres of ice?  Beats this rain any day of the week!!


(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_g6RLMNy7phY/THwT5F97NTI/AAAAAAAAAFE/dLmpdk14VpU/s1600/Sleet_on_the_ground.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: EastTNWX on January 04, 2019, 09:53:44 PM
Winter is coming back soon, looks like it's going to pack a punch too. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on January 05, 2019, 08:05:04 AM
We dropped briefly to 31F this morning Ö the first time it has been below freezing out here since the morning of Christmas Eve.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 05, 2019, 08:52:42 AM
Brilliant sunshine here in Franklin.  8)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 05, 2019, 09:12:54 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190105/c5c881d7ac7c1ca69199ba5e59180624.jpg)

Doesnít look like the new GFS will be an improvement
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 05, 2019, 09:25:43 AM
Nice to see beautiful blue sky this morning.  With a decent breeze today, maybe we'll dry out the waterlogged ground.  The longest dry spell in months finally coming this week, as well.  I have to find a small water leak in the water line from the well, so I welcome it!
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 05, 2019, 11:10:31 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190105/9ab0329dec2430dd741b8ecbae3d67fe.jpg)

For the year:

Euro>UKMET>GFS>CMC
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 05, 2019, 12:07:51 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190105/9ab0329dec2430dd741b8ecbae3d67fe.jpg)

For the year:

Euro>UKMET>GFS>CMC

So, EURO is still king.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 05, 2019, 12:25:58 PM
So, EURO is still king.


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And speaking of... hot off the presses

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190105/aff6a58f24072c5e85da55b5086174e9.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 05, 2019, 12:28:36 PM
And speaking of... hot off the presses

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190105/aff6a58f24072c5e85da55b5086174e9.jpg)

The split of the vortex?


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 05, 2019, 12:30:17 PM
The split of the vortex?


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Well itís the resultant 500mb pattern with blocking and a split flow. Looks similar to February 2010 and 2015
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 05, 2019, 01:40:57 PM
untill the pacific jet tones quite bit... this winter is going to be a snooze feast... ::sleeping:: that simple 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on January 05, 2019, 02:15:46 PM
untill the pacific jet tones quite bit... this winter is going to be a snooze feast... ::sleeping:: that simple

Flabby jet streams are depressing, even if they sag.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 05, 2019, 02:15:53 PM
untill the pacific jet tones quite bit... this winter is going to be a snooze feast... ::sleeping:: that simple

Bruce just stop.  There is more to winter wx than the pacific jet.  It actually could help us get more snow.  Read and research and you will find out there is more to it than the pacific jet.  All you are is negative.  If you can not have something more than trolling negativity then say nothing at all.

Post Merge: January 05, 2019, 02:18:49 PM
And speaking of... hot off the presses

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190105/aff6a58f24072c5e85da55b5086174e9.jpg)

Does this look like the pacific jet is going to be an issue?

Strong Pacific jet actually = monster Aleutian low
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 05, 2019, 02:32:03 PM
Bruce just stop.  There is more to winter wx than the pacific jet.  It actually could help us get more snow.  Read and research and you will find out there is more to it than the pacific jet.  All you are is negative.  If you can not have something more than trolling negativity then say nothing at all.

Post Merge: January 05, 2019, 02:18:49 PM
Does this look like the pacific jet is going to be an issue?

Strong Pacific jet actually = monster Aleutian low

It certainly wonít if that map is correct. The EPO looks more favorable mid month on.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 05, 2019, 02:47:54 PM
Bruce writes the same thing every year and then disappears when the pattern changes. Meh.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on January 05, 2019, 02:58:38 PM
Nice to see beautiful blue sky this morning.  With a decent breeze today, maybe we'll dry out the waterlogged ground.  The longest dry spell in months finally coming this week, as well.  I have to find a small water leak in the water line from the well, so I welcome it!
I spent a good part of the day helping a friend who is building a house and while it was wonderful to see the sun in what felt like the first time in a month the mud was terrible.   Our yard at home is so soft it settles under your feet,  on a construction site it's so bad you almost can't stand still because there's nothing solid to stand on.   Several days of drying out is going to be very welcome.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 05, 2019, 03:42:01 PM
Bruce writes the same thing every year and then disappears when the pattern changes. Meh.
promise you. When and IF pattern changes. I be here in middle of it.  Lord willing

Post Merge: January 06, 2019, 04:17:52 AM
Well the 0z euro starting give us a bone late next week ...  2.  To 3 inch snow event most West Tennessee... nice to see ...  Iím so ready to track something...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 06, 2019, 09:13:24 AM
The Euro and new GFS look identical for the end of the week. Snow for most of Tennessee. Iím sure it will change but it is inside of seven days . GFS and CMC have a system but it is weak and strung out. Something to watch.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2019, 09:45:24 AM
Looks like another beautiful day on tap.  Near 60 and sunny.  Certainly not your typical January day, but welcome drying nonetheless. 

Next three days look warm, then normal temperatures return after Wednesday--40's.  Some real winter weather would be welcome.     
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 06, 2019, 10:54:50 AM
Changes are coming down the road! Feeling hopeful about winter coming strong by mid January! Hopefully we will have a 4-6 week period of active weather with a good cold source near.  ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 06, 2019, 12:04:05 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/v5iyi0.jpg)(http://i65.tinypic.com/261lwyu.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2019, 01:31:57 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/v5iyi0.jpg)(http://i65.tinypic.com/261lwyu.jpg)
that model just has not been good at all....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 06, 2019, 01:34:49 PM
Winter is coming!!!!! Chips all in!!!!! ::yum:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Post Merge: January 06, 2019, 01:35:37 PM
that model just has not been good at all....
What good model are you going by???? ::rofl:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2019, 01:53:48 PM
Winter is coming!!!!! Chips all in!!!!! ::yum:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Post Merge: January 06, 2019, 01:35:37 PM
What good model are you going by???? ::rofl:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
the king man ... the king... if new gfs verified I would have over foot snow already lol....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 06, 2019, 02:10:43 PM
the king man ... the king... if new gfs verified I would have over foot snow already lol....
The King you say...

(http://i68.tinypic.com/33aqr6t.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Tornado 73 on January 06, 2019, 02:14:08 PM
Dyer, can you show the couple of frames before the one you posted? Thanks
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 06, 2019, 02:53:14 PM
The King you say...

(http://i68.tinypic.com/33aqr6t.jpg)

This is arousing ::pondering::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on January 06, 2019, 03:15:57 PM
The King you say...

(http://i68.tinypic.com/33aqr6t.jpg)

If we are going to have a bunch of messy, mixed bag of precip, I vote skip winter and continue days like we have had this weekend.  8)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 06, 2019, 04:12:49 PM
Dyer, can you show the couple of frames before the one you posted? Thanks

I'll spoil it for you: that frame was as good as it got except for far East TN.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2019, 04:26:02 PM
If we are going to have a bunch of messy, mixed bag of precip, I vote skip winter and continue days like we have had this weekend.  8)

I second that emotion.  A few wet flakes does not a winter make! 

After two months of nearly endless rain, this weekend was a gem.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Tornado 73 on January 06, 2019, 04:48:12 PM
I'll spoil it for you: that frame was as good as it got except for far East TN.

I'll wait for the book...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Flash on January 06, 2019, 05:16:26 PM
If we are going to have a bunch of messy, mixed bag of precip, I vote skip winter and continue days like we have had this weekend.  8)

I concur, but taken this image verbatim...that's some dark blue for our locales, Beth. The way this winter has gone, a classic Tennessee anklebiter is fine by me!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 06, 2019, 05:19:37 PM
We are entering the heart of winter, from now through Feb bring on the snow.  ::yum:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on January 06, 2019, 06:04:51 PM
Iíve got things flowering in my yard and the hydrangeas are starting to lead out. Itís got me a little concerned.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 06, 2019, 06:21:37 PM
This is arousing ::pondering::

Or as we used to say in the chat room, wet bulbing


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 06, 2019, 06:24:22 PM
Iíve got things flowering in my yard and the hydrangeas are starting to lead out. Itís got me a little concerned.
Thatís crazy. While we have not had any winter weather lately  , it has not been that warm here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 06, 2019, 07:06:58 PM
It is amazing how dang warm it got today, in the heart of winter no less. I know I should enjoy it, and am glad a lot are, but I am an admitted weirdo. Warmth in January just ticks me off, I can't even enjoy it. I should be committed.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on January 06, 2019, 07:16:31 PM
Thatís crazy. While we have not had any winter weather lately  , it has not been that warm here.

I know. There are dandelions flowering in my yard. Driving back from the grocery, my wife and I saw ornamentals in bloom. My daughter was in the yard picking flowers. My jasmine bloomed. There are petals everywhere. My butterfly Bush is putting out new leaves. I wouldnít be terribly disturbed but, everything thatís growing is deciduous and needs itís dormancy. Which, is more light dependent than temperature dependent. Kinda scary considering the days are just getting longer.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on January 06, 2019, 07:25:46 PM
I was a bit surprised that December finished +3 to +5 for a lot of us.  It has more to do with the lows versus the highs.  We haven't been that warm relative to highs but we have had a lot of lows above freezing and even above 40F which is kinda unusual in the heart of winter.  In a frame of El-Nino's this isn't that rare as many of our warmest December to Early January periods came in El-Nino's (see 57-58, 82-83, 94-95, 02-03, 06-07, 15-16, and even 14-15 to a lesser extent). 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2019, 08:10:17 PM
I know. There are dandelions flowering in my yard. Driving back from the grocery, my wife and I saw ornamentals in bloom. My daughter was in the yard picking flowers. My jasmine bloomed. There are petals everywhere. My butterfly Bush is putting out new leaves. I wouldnít be terribly disturbed but, everything thatís growing is deciduous and needs itís dormancy. Which, is more light dependent than temperature dependent. Kinda scary considering the days are just getting longer.
my grass is starting to grow slowly... course most of it being wild stuff... but couldn't help notice each passing day its slowly getting greener....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2019, 08:18:37 PM
I've seen insects flying around today.  In January.  Now, that does tick me off.   Bugs be gone!

I hope we at least flirt with zero once or twice this winter to reduce the pest population.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Cody on January 06, 2019, 08:28:25 PM
Looks like the next 10 days only 1 night below freezing. Whatís going on? Pole shifting?


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2019, 08:35:57 PM
I've seen insects flying around today.  In January.  Now, that does tick me off.   Bugs be gone!

I hope we at least flirt with zero once or twice this winter to reduce the pest population.
dont think it really matter that much be honest... **** Alaska has perhaps the worst mosquito problem ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 06, 2019, 08:49:51 PM
my grass is starting to grow slowly... course most of it being wild stuff... but couldn't help notice each passing day its slowly getting greener....

Yep, the greening of some of the grasses is becoming noticeable. I have Bermuda, so it's nice and brown still.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 06, 2019, 09:33:29 PM
dont think it really matter that much be honest... **** Alaska has perhaps the worst mosquito problem ....

That's because AK has lots of unfrozen standing water in the summer where mosquitos migrate north to claim as their homes. Here, hard freezes can kill off hibernating mosquitos. The colder it is, the less survive the larval stages and don't make it to spring.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on January 06, 2019, 10:02:55 PM
Go ahead and book the system for this weekend. Iíll be in Florida. Everybody will get a foot, and it will melt before I can get back. Actually, the last time I went to Orlando was just before the January 2011 storm. Hmm.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 07, 2019, 05:08:04 AM
It is amazing how dang warm it got today, in the heart of winter no less. I know I should enjoy it, and am glad a lot are, but I am an admitted weirdo. Warmth in January just ticks me off, I can't even enjoy it. I should be committed.
Ha-  everyone wanted to go outside today and I had no desire because warmth in winter in something that I find depressing.

You are not the only one but we do suffer mostly in silence

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 07, 2019, 07:13:43 AM
Another April day in January coming up.  It does feel strange to see grass turning green in mid-winter.  Most native grasses love cool, wet weather, and quickly turn brown in our hot summer's unless it's watered regularly.  So it's loving this weather. 

I'm no fan of warmth in January, but I love 60's.  To me, that's perfect temperatures for outdoor work and play.  Since it's so rare in our summer months, I can enjoy it whenever.  Even so, I hope this recent mild spell meets a quick demise this week.  This level and length of warmth in January is simply not good for most deciduous plants. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on January 07, 2019, 09:24:30 AM
That's because AK has lots of unfrozen standing water in the summer where mosquitos migrate north to claim as their homes. Here, hard freezes can kill off hibernating mosquitos. The colder it is, the less survive the larval stages and don't make it to spring.

Yes cold will kill them off but they multiply so fast that it honestly does not make that much of a difference. All it takes is for a  handful to survive (and they will) and a week of warmth before you are dealing with a swarm of the bloodsuckers. The problem this time of year is that the majority of their predators are either hibernating or have flown south for the winter......
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 07, 2019, 09:50:57 AM
Another April day in January coming up.  It does feel strange to see grass turning green in mid-winter.  Most native grasses love cool, wet weather, and quickly turn brown in our hot summer's unless it's watered regularly.  So it's loving this weather. 

I'm no fan of warmth in January, but I love 60's.  To me, that's perfect temperatures for outdoor work and play.  Since it's so rare in our summer months, I can enjoy it whenever.  Even so, I hope this recent mild spell meets a quick demise this week.  This level and length of warmth in January is simply not good for most deciduous plants.

My daughter had an indoor soccer game Saturday. Ironically, the weather was perfect outside for soccer.

Post Merge: January 07, 2019, 09:54:01 AM
There was a winter a good while back, probably 10 years at least, where we had a good long stretch of torch and people were joking they might need to consider mowing their grass.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2019, 10:20:25 AM
12z gfs looks like a st.louis special shaping up....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2019, 10:29:19 AM
12z GFS...speaks thermal truth for middle TN. 1010 L moving over BNA won't get it done. Nice hit just north of our RVA.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019010712&fh=138)

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019010712&fh=138[/
perfect track for stlouis... rain changing over to wet snow ....

Post Merge: January 07, 2019, 11:01:42 AM
So let st.louis get this snow here ... hopefully if it stair steps down like usually does ... next system after this be our turn ... plus build up a little snow pack just to our north....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on January 07, 2019, 11:13:55 AM
I don't know...I've kinda liked the weather the last couple of days. It sorta makes me wish for a January 1974 redo.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 07, 2019, 11:15:36 AM
Look at the Euro & Ukie.  GFS is total garbage.  It is almost tied for last in verification scores with Canadian
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 07, 2019, 11:18:23 AM
Looks about right

(http://i63.tinypic.com/250jexj.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 07, 2019, 11:32:59 AM
I think the new version of the GFS  looks better than the GFS from what I am hearing. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2019, 11:33:28 AM
I don't know...I've kinda liked the weather the last couple of days. It sorta makes me wish for a January 1974 redo.
1974? We had a early major ice storm followed by 4 inches snow that January about 3 rd... January.... we were out power over week n half ... temps got down close to zero after the storm ... I was 11 years old remember it well too...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on January 07, 2019, 11:37:04 AM
1974? We had a early major ice storm followed by 4 inches snow that January about 3 rd... January.... we were out power over week n half ... temps got down close to zero after the storm ... I was 11 years old remember it well too...

Well, Bruce, I don't know about over there in East Arkansas, but here in God's Country, January 1974 was the warmest January on record...temps of 60+ for 12 of the last 15 days of the month.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 07, 2019, 11:37:53 AM
I think the new version of the GFS  looks better than the GFS from what I am hearing. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

It is actually worse. At least the old GFS gives us the, always, reliable wraparound snow as the system departs.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on January 07, 2019, 11:50:49 AM
Same old same old. Either we have the moisture and no cold or we have the cold and no moisture. Winter here has just become depressing.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 07, 2019, 11:53:04 AM
Well, Bruce, I don't know about over there in East Arkansas, but here in God's Country, January 1974 was the warmest January on record...temps of 60+ for 12 of the last 15 days of the month.

Be careful hoping too much for a repeat of 1974...

 ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 07, 2019, 11:54:15 AM
1. Stop getting caught up on 120+ hours out much less 10 days and beyond
2. This is TN
3. This is TN
4. This is TN
5. Climo usually is the sure bet.
6. This is TN
7. Get 72 hours in .... This is TN  ::shrug::



Being serious, this is TN, but things do happen and we get the fluffy white stuff, of wet white stuff, whatever...European is about to run and we will get a better look than what the GFS is offering, tho the GFS may be correct, we are still 100+ hours away, a lot is going to change. Several things look right, and several do not.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 07, 2019, 11:59:54 AM
It is actually worse. At least the old GFS gives us the, always, reliable wraparound snow as the system departs.
Yep I just seen that. Still time for changes, and the way models are handling things it will. Hopefully we are getting ready to start stepping down into a more favorable winter pattern.  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2019, 12:07:55 PM
Be careful hoping too much for a repeat of 1974...

 ;)
i take repeat 1974 for sure .... lol

Post Merge: January 07, 2019, 12:38:15 PM
12z euro does give nw Tennessee a little love along be Arkansas... if I were in stlouis ... I be happy camper ... with this one
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 07, 2019, 01:00:05 PM
Euro does pretty good in western parts of middle also, especially north of I-40. Still a ways to go but something to watch.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 07, 2019, 01:13:00 PM
12z Euro before it turns to sloppy mix for north and rain to the south

(http://i67.tinypic.com/qyy0zp.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on January 07, 2019, 01:25:24 PM
12z Euro before it turns to sloppy mix for north and rain to the south

(http://i67.tinypic.com/qyy0zp.jpg)
This weekend system is starting show up a little more consistent now with the models. ::fingerscrossed:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Flash on January 07, 2019, 02:35:10 PM
Euro does pretty good in western parts of middle also, especially north of I-40. Still a ways to go but something to watch.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Rooting for your area. Now that weíre in White Bluff, better half says sheíll snowchase with me if appreciable accumulations are within a half hour.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on January 07, 2019, 02:42:41 PM
way too far out and models are not agreeing at all....  Don't care what the last hours worth of runs say honestly.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 07, 2019, 03:15:10 PM
way too far out and models are not agreeing at all....  Don't care what the last hours worth of runs say honestly.

What makes you say that? It's only six days out

I'm sharing your skepticism though. Air is too warm
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2019, 03:21:56 PM
What makes you say that? It's only six days out

I'm sharing your skepticism though. Air is too warm
personally think the better time for us to score something is about couple weeks away ... eps starting pick up on a tall western ridge .... thatís a good sign if it holds ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2019, 03:37:19 PM
The classic "too warm" scenario lol. Either to warm or the air is to dry and the moisture doesn't make it to middle Tennessee when we have cold air in place ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 07, 2019, 03:38:09 PM
The classic "too warm" scenario lol. Either to warm or the air is to dry and the moisture doesn't make it to middle Tennessee when we have cold air in place ::bangingheadintowall::

The struggle is real!


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on January 07, 2019, 04:28:34 PM
The classic "too warm" scenario lol. Either to warm or the air is to dry and the moisture doesn't make it to middle Tennessee when we have cold air in place ::bangingheadintowall::
Basically if your a snow lover then you might want to consider living somewhere that doesnít take what feels like a scientific experiment to make it snow!  ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 07, 2019, 04:29:55 PM
Basically if your a snow lover then you might want to consider living somewhere that doesnít take what feels like a scientific experiment to make it snow!  ;)

I could move to Alaska and the 60ís would follow lol


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 07, 2019, 04:36:35 PM
I like our chances with next weekends system. At least the northwestern part of the state I think has a good shot at seeing some snow, maybe more of us. At least it is starting to look like cold is coming as we head toward the end of January and beyond. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 07, 2019, 04:47:13 PM
Meanwhile, it hit 70 in Knoxville today in the coldest month of the year!!  Brrr!  What a chill!! ::cold::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2019, 04:54:03 PM
I am actually from New Jersey...been here since I was 5 though lol...that was 27 years ago...I do remember a wonderful blizzard and we could only get out of house by climbing out the windows lol.

BUT there is something so much more special about just a little 3 or 4 inch snow in the south .... landscape is so beautiful here compared to the cityscape of the northeast. I would still take 4 inch snow here over the 20 inch blizzards in the NJ apartments any day lol.

But it is just so much more infrequent now. I remember in the 90's through mid 2000's getting a good 8-10 inches of snow just about every year.... :(
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 07, 2019, 05:01:50 PM
I am actually from New Jersey...been here since I was 5 though lol...that was 27 years ago...I do remember a wonderful blizzard and we could only get out of house by climbing out the windows lol.

BUT there is something so much more special about just a little 3 or 4 inch snow in the south .... landscape is so beautiful here compared to the cityscape of the northeast. I would still take 4 inch snow here over the 20 inch blizzards in the NJ apartments any day lol.

But it is just so much more infrequent now. I remember in the 90's through mid 2000's getting a good 8-10 inches of snow just about every year.... :(

Country snow beats city snow hands down.  Stays a lot cleaner, too. 

And you really haven't experienced the magic of a heavy snow if you haven't walked through the woods while it was falling.  Can't be explained, can only be experienced. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NashRugger on January 07, 2019, 05:16:49 PM
12z Euro before it turns to sloppy mix for north and rain to the south

(http://i67.tinypic.com/qyy0zp.jpg)
I mean, I wouldn't mind my first full week in St. Louis capped off with a nice amount of snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2019, 06:34:11 PM
Jaycee...100% correct...

I will say though NYC during a big snow was beautiful as well. I was visiting family in 2002 in NJ(just south of NYC) and it snowed big on Christmas day, about 10 inches and I was so happy lol. We went to manhattan the next day and went into central park with that heavy blanket of snow...it was kind of magical.


Then we went to amish country through pennsylvania and it was soooo beautiful. I am just wishing for one good 6-8 inch snowfall like we got in 2010
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on January 07, 2019, 06:45:15 PM
Country snow beats city snow hands down.  Stays a lot cleaner, too. 

And you really haven't experienced the magic of a heavy snow if you haven't walked through the woods while it was falling.  Can't be explained, can only be experienced.

I went up to Mammoth Cave one morning last March right after they received about 2 to 4 inches of snow the night before.  Even though it was in the process of melting it was a very peaceful and beautiful site.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 07, 2019, 08:16:10 PM
Wow, GFS V3 has a hurricane like cyclone around 1/20 heading into the Newfoundland area.  It's a Nor'easter on steroids.  Could it be a catalyst for a pattern change?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 07, 2019, 08:18:04 PM
Country snow beats city snow hands down.  Stays a lot cleaner, too. 

And you really haven't experienced the magic of a heavy snow if you haven't walked through the woods while it was falling.  Can't be explained, can only be experienced.

Yep, have woods behind my house. Always go out for a snow walk during and after. Love it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2019, 08:27:07 PM
Nice evening  for January .... watching the big game on my back patio on the big 65 inch screen ....  unreal for January ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on January 07, 2019, 08:31:32 PM
Wow, GFS V3 has a hurricane like cyclone around 1/20 heading into the Newfoundland area.  It's a Nor'easter on steroids.  Could it be a catalyst for a pattern change?

Nope, just the GFS doing what the GFS does :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 07, 2019, 08:35:50 PM
Nice evening  for January .... watching the big game on my back patio on the big 65 inch screen ....  unreal for January ....

I have to admit I enjoyed an extended mosquito free evening on the deck, myself.  Watched the cresent moon set before the clouds rolled in.  Even now, it's 60 here with a good breeze whistling through the pines.  I could complain about it, but I enjoyed it too much.  Old Man Winter, where art thou?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on January 07, 2019, 08:50:19 PM
It was a fantastic afternoon.   I split the truckload of firewood today that I just brought home on Saturday then grilled burgers on the patio for dinner.   I'll welcome some winter weather but you have to enjoy days like this when they come along.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 07, 2019, 10:48:04 PM
00Z GFS moves a little S of its 12Z position but keeps its current mood level. Not very confident on the end of week storm. We will take a look at the Euro to see where that puts us before harping either way but you already know where this is going.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 08, 2019, 05:49:15 AM
Euro still showing some love for the northwest corner (Dyer's World).   Nashville, and points west and north, still have a shot.  Euro also shows a chance of accumulation as far south as Shelbyville, and another pocket on the plateau near Chattanooga.  I'm sure elevation will play a big part with this system where temperatures are marginal. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on January 08, 2019, 10:13:24 AM
Not enough cold on the 12z. *Shocker*
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2019, 10:23:08 AM
yeah I just do not see this one having a chance at all, highs in low 40's.
We have yet to see anything even close to arctic air in our area so far, my rose bush is budding in early January lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2019, 10:28:55 AM
yeah I just do not see this one having a chance at all, highs in low 40's.
We have yet to see anything even close to arctic air in our area so far, my rose bush is budding in early January lol
noticed. Yesterday. Ours starting to bud a bit also.... never seen rose s do this January before ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 08, 2019, 10:28:58 AM
yeah I just do not see this one having a chance at all, highs in low 40's.
We have yet to see anything even close to arctic air in our area so far, my rose bush is budding in early January lol

Welcome to the board, gcbama!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 08, 2019, 10:42:16 AM
I would not go by the gfs or the new gfs.  They are complete utter garbage.  Let the Euro & Ukie lead way.  Especially the esembles.  I donít see anything this weekend but a cold rain.  Positive note pattern is changing and should only get better and have more shots at winter wx in coming weeks.  Especially with the pacific throwing us moisture.  Go figure it is going to help Bruce.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 08, 2019, 11:06:51 AM
So far not impressed by this weekend at all per current modeling. Maybe someone gets lucky with a quick thump of snow before changing to rain? Gfs and euro try to pull some moisture into the cold dry air into west TN but itís struggling. By the time the more generous precip arrives the atmosphere  and surface wonít support frozen precip.

As of now the south half of MO - esp southeast MO -look/ good for overrunning precip as snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2019, 11:12:22 AM
I would not go by the gfs or the new gfs.  They are complete utter garbage.  Let the Euro & Ukie lead way.  Especially the esembles.  I donít see anything this weekend but a cold rain.  Positive note pattern is changing and should only get better and have more shots at winter wx in coming weeks.  Especially with the pacific throwing us moisture.  Go figure it is going to help Bruce.
got eye on the possible change... im not going get any hopes up on this just like no one should ... could
Be false ... time will tell...

Post Merge: January 08, 2019, 12:33:55 PM
12zeuro says. Road trip to western Kentucky everyone ?  Nice hit.  Along Kentucky Tennessee border also....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 08, 2019, 12:40:45 PM
Still a ways to go.  I am thinking cold rain here but itís another close one.  Bruce remember the Euro has a slight warm bias.  Does that matter here very doubtful but def.  fun to see a chance close by.  Looking at the some of the data.  The next 5 days could be warmest for quiet sometime. Hopefully meaning winter storms to track.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 08, 2019, 12:43:22 PM
It's got my interest, it's gonna be a close call it looks like. The northern portions of west and nw middle tn look to have a shot. Western Kentucky looks real good at the moment. At least there is a system to watch close. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 08, 2019, 12:45:20 PM
It's got my interest, gonna be close. The northern portions of west and nw middle tn look to have a shot. Western Kentucky looks real good at the moment. At least there is a system to watch closely. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Seeing that I now live 7 miles from the KY border, maybe just maybe


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 08, 2019, 12:48:27 PM
Seeing that I now live 7 miles from the KY border, maybe just maybe


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I am about 5 miles from the border, actually probably about 3 miles as the crow flies. ::rofl:: All joking aside if the euro is right we have a shot Drift. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2019, 12:51:05 PM
12 z euro really amped the system up...trends keep this up... weíre looking at a major winter storm ...going be tough watching it go 75 100 miles north of me.  May have take road trip see ole uncle in Calvert. City Kentucky ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Flash on January 08, 2019, 12:53:28 PM
I am about 5 miles from the border, actually probably about 3 miles as the crow flies. ::rofl:: All joking aside if the euro is right we have a shot Drift. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Even for the favored forum spots, we're going need this to hit overnight and hope there's a decent cash-in before the inevitable changeover to rain. Sure want to be positive, but it's hard to expect much in this Miller Hybrid age we're in where cutters, sliders, and clippers seem to find the warm finger or dry slot. Hate to say it, but sure looks like the rich will get richer with this system.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2019, 12:56:14 PM
Even for the favored forum spots, we're going need this to hit overnight and hope there's a decent cash-in before the inevitable changeover to rain. Sure want to be positive, but it's hard to expect much in this Miller Hybrid age we're in where cutters, sliders, and clippers seem to find the warm finger or dry slot. Hate to say it, but sure looks like the rich will get richer with this system.
mist precip looks hit Friday nite ... then slight lull Saturday with another wave Saturday nite ... that be good... I just wish we had a nice push of artic air coming down to suppress this slightly south... we all would be in business
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Flash on January 08, 2019, 12:59:33 PM
mist precip looks hit Friday nite ... then slight lull Saturday with another wave Saturday nite ... that be good... I just wish we had a nice push of artic air coming down to suppress this slightly south... we all would be in business

I will say this. It seems when the pattern starts to change, a service system is needed to help reset the deck (think service horse leading the race horse to the starting gate). Still think we'll have multiple threat threads late Jan/early Feb on here before this winter is said and done.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 08, 2019, 01:04:39 PM
mist precip looks hit Friday nite ... then slight lull Saturday with another wave Saturday nite ... that be good... I just wish we had a nice push of artic air coming down to suppress this slightly south... we all would be in business
The timing you mention above is the key, of course if the HP you mentioned can push just a little more south that would be icing on the cake. It's gonna be close, at least we got a shot. Maybe we get that HP to press just a little more.  ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 08, 2019, 01:08:36 PM
EURO definitely is close. Nice snow for some and then the mixing line moves to Tennessee Kentucky border.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/21c8tog.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 08, 2019, 01:12:55 PM
Last warm day accompanied by a lot of wind this afternoon, but it's still very pleasant for January.  Nevertheless, the clock's a tickin' on winter, and I hope a promising pattern change appears soon.   
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 08, 2019, 01:48:12 PM
Euro control is even further south with the snow line on the ďthumpĒ if you will. Everyone goes to rain after except parts of NE Arkansas. EPS mean actually has accumulating snow as well down to the MS-TN state line.

Weíve seen a set up like this before aka February 2010. In that one Desoto Co got under that infamous band that dumped 8 inches in like 3 hours.  Granted- thatís not what Iím saying will happen.

EPS Mean
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190108/6ce2bf15df107e1fceba79af221355d8.jpg)

EPS Control
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190108/93f539dc2b9c002ee0a820685fe99b41.jpg)

Overall still a 40 divider
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2019, 01:51:26 PM
poplar bluff through Paducah and bowling green has been the sweet spot the past 5-6 years. I honestly think they have gotten over a foot of snow every year in that span.

Just 50-75 miles north of here gets pummeled and we get the cold raindrops lol, hoping for a trend change.....I am not asking for much ...just a nice 3-5 inch snow and I would be happy . 8-10 I would be in heaven
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2019, 02:30:26 PM
12z EPS long range is brutal cold...   ::cold:: classic Greenland  block ... that holds up ? Fun times ahead ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 08, 2019, 02:40:18 PM
12z EPS long range is brutal cold...   ::cold:: classic Greenland  block ... that holds up ? Fun times ahead ...
The new GFS is very cold in the long range also. It dumps the cold right in the center of the country. Right were we want it. I know it is long range but it lines up well with what things were pointing to.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 08, 2019, 03:25:31 PM
Maybe, just maybe that's an early hint of the effects of that SSW event beginning to unfold.

It's a mild one today.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 08, 2019, 03:31:00 PM
poplar bluff through Paducah and bowling green has been the sweet spot the past 5-6 years. I honestly think they have gotten over a foot of snow every year in that span.

Just 50-75 miles north of here gets pummeled and we get the cold raindrops lol, hoping for a trend change.....I am not asking for much ...just a nice 3-5 inch snow and I would be happy . 8-10 I would be in heaven

Kentucky has done very well over the last 4-5 years, and has seen some pretty epic snow events recently, including a huge one during the last El Nino winter (15-16).   But if you visit KY Weather Center, you would think they haven't seen snow in 50 years from the comments on that site.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 08, 2019, 03:54:05 PM
Kentucky has done very well over the last 4-5 years, and has seen some pretty epic snow events recently, including a huge one during the last El Nino winter (15-16).   But if you visit KY Weather Center, you would think they haven't seen snow in 50 years from the comments on that site.  ::rofl::

I know. I stopped reading them because they would just make me angry. Lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on January 08, 2019, 05:06:55 PM
Next storm is 'meh' city for west TN IMO.  Maybe very far NW to N TN scores.  I do like where the overall pattern is headed. I am watching the MJO to see where it goes after this neutral phase, every thing else like AO or NAO look good for the next few weeks.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 08, 2019, 06:59:42 PM
I know. I stopped reading them because they would just make me angry. Lol
U 2?  LOL  I have family there, so I know how much snow and ice they've seen over the last few years.  However, you would think it hasn't snowed there since the last ice age reading peoples' comments.  Bunch of whiny brats.    :D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 08, 2019, 07:14:58 PM
MRX shaking its head at this one.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2019, 07:15:12 PM
i know right....gosh I remember I think it was 2 years ago 2 days before the storm all of Tennessee was in the bullseye for 8-10 inches....the very next day the track shifted 75-80 miles north and ky got slammed....it happens countless times....it never shifts south lol.
What REALLY drives me nuts is when cold air is here we have a huge gulf low and it is to dry of an air mass up here but tupelo and Huntsville and Birmingham get 4-6 inches.
 A family member of mine in the Birmingham area has gotten 4-6 inches of snow the past 4 years, and here in Hohenwald tn last year I got 1.7 inches lol. I miss the old days of getting two snowfalls every year of about 4 inches each from the mid 90's until early 2000's, and the occasional 6-8 inches here and there. I haven't had a big snow since that 2010 system ( that was perfection) 9-10 inches and it snowed moderate to heavy for around 14 hours...my personal favorite storm ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 08, 2019, 07:46:25 PM
A good snowstorm for me is one where most of the accumulation falls during daylight hours.  The last few years it seems to snow heaviest here in the middle of the night, and come daybreak, it's over (like the one in December).  75% of the fun is watching it happen.  The other 25% is sliding around in the jeep, trying not to get stuck in it.  8)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on January 09, 2019, 04:10:02 AM
06z NAM says this baby aint even gonna give anyone any wintry precipitation at the onset. 100% rain.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 09, 2019, 06:40:44 AM
Models show snowfall deep into Kentucky, but with marginal temps and mixing going on that far south, I feel like this will be a Ohio River Special.  In other words, the real accumulation happens along and north of the river.  Euro is trending that way, taking much of our snow accumulation and shifting it northward into KY. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 09, 2019, 06:48:21 AM
06z NAM says this baby aint even gonna give anyone any wintry precipitation at the onset. 100% rain.


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We all knew this one would never hold up. Time to stick a fork in it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 09, 2019, 06:55:02 AM
At least it will feel more like the month we currently live in with highs in the upper 30's/40's and lows deep into the 20's.  Feels like forever since we were well below freezing here. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2019, 07:05:32 AM
Models show snowfall deep into Kentucky, but with marginal temps and mixing going on that far south, I feel like this will be a Ohio River Special.  In other words, the real accumulation happens along and north of the river.  Euro is trending that way, taking much of our snow accumulation and shifting it northward into KY.
yeah looks like itís north Kentucky at that... stlouis to Louisville snow special coming on this one ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2019, 08:23:17 AM
what a boring start to the winter season, not a hint of anything close to a possible accumulation for all of December and looks like most of January. Maybe Feb will pan out :(
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 09, 2019, 08:53:12 AM
Winter seems like a waiting game for us these days.  Wait, wait, wait, but wait!--we've still got to wait a bit longer. 

2014-15 was a waiting game, and it paid off well by mid-February.  We can only hope for something that good coming our way soon.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2019, 09:03:28 AM
what a boring start to the winter season, not a hint of anything close to a possible accumulation for all of December and looks like most of January. Maybe Feb will pan out :(
just over all boring weather period ...last year or so...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 09, 2019, 09:11:25 AM
what a boring start to the winter season, not a hint of anything close to a possible accumulation for all of December and looks like most of January. Maybe Feb will pan out :(

Most of January?  It is only January 9th?  We have not even entered the heart of winter.  Plus the LR looks really good especially as we get close to the 20th.  February is also looking well on the LR.  Now will it happen we will just have to see.  At least there is positivity.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 09, 2019, 09:17:21 AM
April will be our month.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2019, 09:22:26 AM
April will be our month.


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yeah. Hope your right drift... but not talking bout winter type stuff ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 09, 2019, 11:06:33 AM
12z GFS and CMC bringing the goods in the long range....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NismoWx on January 09, 2019, 11:09:51 AM
Ran up to Evansville today for work. The city is already starting to treat the roads.

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on January 09, 2019, 11:24:01 AM
12z GFS and CMC bringing the goods in the long range....

The problem is....its always in the long range
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2019, 11:29:35 AM
The problem is....its always in the long range
well itís got to begin somewhere ... but can it hold...  the pattern change at least ... that just seems to keep on getting pushed further back  .... does look interesting later month ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NashRugger on January 09, 2019, 11:38:11 AM
LSX (St. Louis) going with 5" for my area but the potential is there for more, and if the EURO solution verifies, the totals could potentially double.

Welcome to Missouri, sheesh.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 09, 2019, 11:43:39 AM
well itís got to begin somewhere ... but can it hold...  the pattern change at least ... that just seems to keep on getting pushed further back  .... does look interesting later month ...

The pattern change is already happened and happening.  We have switched to cold daytime highs and lows.  We will warm up for a few days next week before sustained cold seems to  take hold.  So itís not being pushed back.  It is actually moved up a few days.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Flash on January 09, 2019, 11:44:30 AM
LSX (St. Louis) going with 5" for my area but the potential is there for more, and if the EURO solution verifies, the totals could potentially double.

Welcome to Missouri, sheesh.

Good luck. I'll be in Marion or Mount Vernon, IL Friday night. Hopefully no more northward trends!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2019, 11:48:33 AM
Hey everybody do we really think the pattern is changing big time?
I know its colder than it has been but nothing close to arctic air. Highs in mid 40's and lows on a clear sky in the mid 20's just doesn't seem cold enough for me, it just screams cold rain to me lol especially since under a cloudy sky those low night temps would be mid 30's .

I am ready for an extended period of highs in the 20's lows in teens with a nice low pressure :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 09, 2019, 11:51:57 AM
Good luck. I'll be in Marion or Mount Vernon, IL Friday night. Hopefully no more northward trends!

Just go another hour up to effingham, maybe youíll be good there lol


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 09, 2019, 11:52:14 AM
Hey everybody do we really think the pattern is changing big time?
I know its colder than it has been but nothing close to arctic air. Highs in mid 40's and lows on a clear sky in the mid 20's just doesn't seem cold enough for me, it just screams cold rain to me lol especially since under a cloudy sky those low night temps would be mid 30's .

I am ready for an extended period of highs in the 20's lows in teens with a nice low pressure :)

Gotta be careful wanting too cold.  The old saying to cold to snow.  Truly bitter air leads to suppression.  Letís get some snow on ground then highs like that.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2019, 11:59:42 AM
Just go another hour up to effingham, maybe youíll be good there lol


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looks like from Carbondale north... mostly snow ...

Post Merge: January 09, 2019, 01:21:41 PM
Gotta be careful wanting too cold.  The old saying to cold to snow.  Truly bitter air leads to suppression.  Letís get some snow on ground then highs like that.
agree 100 percent with you Matt... want we need is the truly bitter  cold air after we get a good snow ... that way warms up just bit for next system ... just enough to snow again .... like 76. 77 season did ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 09, 2019, 01:32:13 PM
I think we need some snow pack up north so we can get some more cold air to push this way....Not enough snow this year to the north so far!!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 09, 2019, 01:35:59 PM
I think we need some snow pack up north so we can get some more cold air to push this way....Not enough snow this year to the north so far!!

Yes snowpack helps but if the air is cold enough it wonít matter.  Remember in December it snowed in North Carolina and places to the east without any snow pack to the North.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on January 09, 2019, 01:37:32 PM
Gotta be careful wanting too cold.  The old saying to cold to snow.  Truly bitter air leads to suppression.  Letís get some snow on ground then highs like that.

I think that saying is for temps 15 degrees and colder .... we will be alright :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2019, 01:38:40 PM
agreed on the too cold to snow point....happens all the time here lol. we either get the cold rain from being in upper 30's , or the air to dry when bitter cold is in place, OR we get the slushy snow sleet mix on the borderline lol, once in a blue moon now a days we get an all snow event.

I just want a big LOW with temps around 28 or 29 :):)

There has been a remarkable lack of a good snowpack thought in the eastern third it seems
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2019, 01:39:49 PM
I think we need some snow pack up north so we can get some more cold air to push this way....Not enough snow this year to the north so far!!
well fixing get a little going just north of us ... stlouis eastward ... hopefully some how that will help with next system ... like timeframe around 20. To 23rd four our first true chance to score a good snow ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 09, 2019, 04:56:34 PM
Interesting... NAM has a blurb of snow over Chatty at the tail end of the 18Z run. Temps right above freezing at 34-35. Could be similar to what we saw in Knoxville last month
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on January 09, 2019, 04:59:38 PM
Hitting Big South Fork Friday night for a quick gear check trip.  NOAA still has snow overnight for that area, hope it holds true.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on January 09, 2019, 06:19:55 PM
Hitting Big South Fork Friday night for a quick gear check trip.  NOAA still has snow overnight for that area, hope it holds true.


The hammock?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on January 09, 2019, 06:36:42 PM
Interesting... NAM has a blurb of snow over Chatty at the tail end of the 18Z run. Temps right above freezing at 34-35. Could be similar to what we saw in Knoxville last month

NAM thermals are questionable.  18z NAM thermals are schizo.  The p-type algorithm is wonky.  Only areas that could stand the chance to get snow at 34-35 would traditionally be Dyersburg and Clarksville.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on January 09, 2019, 08:05:56 PM
I m thinking we have a chance of some accumulation in West KY.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 09, 2019, 09:02:35 PM
According to the 3k NAM I can at least throw a rock and hit some snow.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/bgd45i.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 09, 2019, 09:11:35 PM
According to the 3k NAM I can at least throw a rock and hit some snow.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/bgd45i.jpg)

Looks like I need to go to St. Louis again to see some snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2019, 05:52:57 AM
Day 10. 0z euro... nice winter storm ... could be our best chance this winter .... temps may start out marginal ... plenty time to watch ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 10, 2019, 06:23:52 AM
According to the 3k NAM I can at least throw a rock and hit some snow.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/bgd45i.jpg)

Ugh.  I think I'd rather it be hundreds of miles away.  The last snow that dropped nearly a foot in upper east TN was like fingernails on a chalkboard--knowing just up the road was getting buried, while I "enjoyed" 35 and rain. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on January 10, 2019, 08:42:11 AM


The hammock?

Yeah I'll be in a hammock!  I have a new top quilt and underquilt to test. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on January 10, 2019, 10:23:53 AM
Yeah I'll be in a hammock!  I have a new top quilt and underquilt to test.

Looking forward to hearing your report! Have fun.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 10, 2019, 12:01:41 PM
From this point forward winter is here with a vengeance on the GFS.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2q3xbx4.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 10, 2019, 12:04:52 PM
Model trends are there in long range voodoo land. Nothing to get overly excited about yet.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2019, 12:09:51 PM
From this point forward winter is here with a vengeance on the GFS.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2q3xbx4.jpg)
long range GEFS. Is just plain brutal in long range ... dangerous cold coming if that verifies ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 10, 2019, 12:28:59 PM
No. Fear. 

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/LekCKX3l0LE/maxresdefault.jpg)

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Vols1 on January 10, 2019, 12:37:59 PM
How cold are we talking?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2019, 01:32:40 PM
Hey Dyersburg....that image is EXACTLY what I cannot stand...huge gulf low and the moisture doesn't make it here. Happens far to often. To our north snow...then tupelo and Huntsville and Birmingham get snow and then we get nothing argh

Of course that is way far away BUT if that were to verify again...  ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2019, 01:54:13 PM
Hey Dyersburg....that image is EXACTLY what I cannot stand...huge gulf low and the moisture doesn't make it here. Happens far to often. To our north snow...then tupelo and Huntsville and Birmingham get snow and then we get nothing argh

Of course that is way far away BUT if that were to verify again...  ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall::
never fear... nw trend will save us... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 10, 2019, 02:35:09 PM
From this point forward winter is here with a vengeance on the GFS.

Ironic because that is Jan 21, while the Euro only goes to Jan 20 and the only thing to be excited about is there is plenty of cold up in Canada, just no mechanism (yet, this isnt a winter cancel rant) showing up to get an extended "troughy" pattern in the east. Showing another big Low plowing into northern Cal at 240. Long range GFS is colder than the upgrade GFS as well, so old GFS is probably a little fast with the change.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: memphishogfan on January 10, 2019, 02:57:26 PM
Arkansas DOT using the use it or lose it method with their brine. Dumping it all over the roads in NEA.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 10, 2019, 03:20:02 PM
Ironic because that is Jan 21, while the Euro only goes to Jan 20 and the only thing to be excited about is there is plenty of cold up in Canada, just no mechanism (yet, this isnt a winter cancel rant) showing up to get an extended "troughy" pattern in the east. Showing another big Low plowing into northern Cal at 240. Long range GFS is colder than the upgrade GFS as well, so old GFS is probably a little fast with the change.
GFS is notorious for this. Probably move out a little but itís coming.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2019, 03:35:05 PM
GFS is notorious for this. Probably move out a little but itís coming.
the GEFS has been taking the GFS and the new gfs to school... and its showing pipe busting temps coming straight down from Canada in long range ::cold:: ::cold:: ::cold::
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 10, 2019, 03:41:55 PM
Whoís going to St. Louis? LSX just upgraded to a warning for 5-8 inches.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 10, 2019, 03:54:26 PM
long range GEFS. Is just plain brutal in long range ... dangerous cold coming if that verifies ...

A bit dramatic. Nothing out of the ordinary for a January cold snap.

Post Merge: January 10, 2019, 03:56:36 PM
GFS is notorious for this. Probably move out a little but itís coming.

Yeah, I would say there is a high likelihood it is coming. I'd like to see it get inside the Euro 10 day before I get too confident though.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2019, 04:16:21 PM
A bit dramatic. Nothing out of the ordinary for a January cold snap.

Post Merge: January 10, 2019, 03:56:36 PM
Yeah, I would say there is a high likelihood it is coming. I'd like to see it get inside the Euro 10 day before I get too confident though.
no doubt. If it verifies ... 488 dm thickness down nearly southern. Minnesota...

Post Merge: January 10, 2019, 04:22:18 PM
Finally getting a nice snow. Pack building in the Ohio valley region after this weekend ... thatís were we really need to build it to help us down the line ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NashRugger on January 10, 2019, 06:25:16 PM
Looks like I need to go to St. Louis again to see some snow.
Come on up! 8-12" looks to be the range for the city.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on January 10, 2019, 07:59:34 PM
A hike in the St. Francois Mountains (also sometimes considered the NE extension of the Ozarks even though it isn't geologically correct) would be amazing during this event.  If I was a freelance traveler with a healthy amount of money that would be the spot that combines nature with snow.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 10, 2019, 09:01:18 PM
Strange and interesting times ahead this winter when it does arrive.  NWS employees are now working without pay.  Totally crazy and unnecessary, but it's the times we live in.  Hopefully, they won't walk off the job and leave us to fend for ourselves, but I can't blame them.  Could be good for us to be deprived of all the weather resources we enjoy now, and learn what it was like back in the 1800's.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 10, 2019, 10:23:22 PM
What would be a decent not breaking the bank outdoor thermometer?


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 11, 2019, 05:32:08 AM
Strange and interesting times ahead this winter when it does arrive.  NWS employees are now working without pay.  Totally crazy and unnecessary, but it's the times we live in.  Hopefully, they won't walk off the job and leave us to fend for ourselves, but I can't blame them.  Could be good for us to be deprived of all the weather resources we enjoy now, and learn what it was like back in the 1800's.   ::coffee::
They will get paid for all of their work-- eventually.

The problem comes in when they have to put food on the table in the meantime.

While it's unfortunate, it's just the way it works if Congress and the President disagree and both sides dig in.   

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 06:30:38 AM
What would be a decent not breaking the bank outdoor thermometer?


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For over 15 years I had a Davis weather station, but they are pricey.  When it kicked the bucket last year, I went with a more affordable Ambient weather station.  They have many options (thermometers, weather stations) that are of decent quality and more affordable.  I've had one for a year now with no problem, and it seems reasonably accurate. 

https://www.ambientweather.com/west.html (https://www.ambientweather.com/west.html)

Post Merge: January 11, 2019, 06:51:04 AM
They will get paid for all of their work-- eventually.

The problem comes in when they have to put food on the table in the meantime.

While it's unfortunate, it's just the way it works if Congress and the President disagree and both sides dig in.   

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

My problem is that congress still gets paid during a shutdown, while other Federal employees do not.  To be fair, Congress and the President should also work for nothing during any shutdown they create (not that most of them would even miss their paycheck compared to the "real" working class of America). 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on January 11, 2019, 07:09:32 AM
Not to take this thread too far into politics but this is a non-partisan post so hopefully it won't ruffle any feathers.  We wouldn't have all this shutdown foolishness if Congress would do their job and PASS A BUDGET!  These continuing resolutions and short-term fixes are a recipe for continuing chaos, which is what I think both parties genuinely want as it allows for more talking points and finger pointing.

But, this is a weather forum.  Temps in Knoxville this morning are almost as low as the average Congressman's IQ  ::cold:: ::cold:: ::cold::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 07:13:37 AM
Yeah, I didn't want to delve into the political realm either.  I just find it ridiculous our NWS employees are keeping us informed without pay, currently.  But, it is what it is. 

I got down to 20 this morning, and on my way to work I noticed a 19 on the car therm.  Coldest morning in a long time. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2019, 07:33:23 AM
hopefully this shut down will effect the models soon... just dont run them... keep us in the dark... and longer this thing last... promise you u will see nws soon dont give a crap... dont blame .... im sure not going to go to work and do it for nothing... lmao..... tv mets  i dont watch hardly at all... just maybe we can go back and be like the 1800 s... look out the window and see what kind of weather we have for that day... be pretty neat i think.... maybe it ill bring back the winters they had in the 1800 s ... loll
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on January 11, 2019, 07:44:36 AM
We bottomed out at 17F in the wilds of my backyard this morning Ö the coldest by a long shot  it has been out here since November 28.  That says a lot about this season so far.  ::sleeping::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 11, 2019, 07:52:35 AM
Strange and interesting times ahead this winter when it does arrive.  NWS employees are now working without pay.  Totally crazy and unnecessary, but it's the times we live in.  Hopefully, they won't walk off the job and leave us to fend for ourselves, but I can't blame them.  Could be good for us to be deprived of all the weather resources we enjoy now, and learn what it was like back in the 1800's.   ::coffee::

Sucks, but they'll get paid. They always do. If you work for the Feds you know this is always a possibility and hopefully they planned accordingly. Wish I could get a 21 days of free paid vacation.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on January 11, 2019, 08:07:20 AM
Sucks, but they'll get paid. They always do. If you work for the Feds you know this is always a possibility and hopefully they planned accordingly. Wish I could get a 21 days of free paid vacation.

Thereís still people from the 2013 shutdown that havenít been paid. And, itís not a paid vacation when you canít afford to go anywhere. Hope it ends soon.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 11, 2019, 08:23:47 AM
Sucks, but they'll get paid. They always do. If you work for the Feds you know this is always a possibility and hopefully they planned accordingly. Wish I could get a 21 days of free paid vacation.

Such a naive view of the situation, but to each their own.

Hope you never have to go through it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 11, 2019, 08:51:03 AM
Such a naive view of the situation, but to each their own.

Hope you never have to go through it.

How is it naive? I would gladly go through it. Have a buddy who works at NASA, he's loving it. Have a couple of friends who work at FHWA, they love it. All of them went through it in 2013 and had no complaints. I don't doubt there are people that are going to be pinched in this but the vast majority see it as a free vacation.

Post Merge: January 11, 2019, 08:52:49 AM
Thereís still people from the 2013 shutdown that havenít been paid. And, itís not a paid vacation when you canít afford to go anywhere. Hope it ends soon.

On that I agree, I hope it ends today.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 11, 2019, 09:09:10 AM
In other news we just had a band of sleet move through.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 09:17:49 AM
How is it naive? I would gladly go through it. Have a buddy who works at NASA, he's loving it. Have a couple of friends who work at FHWA, they love it. All of them went through it in 2013 and had no complaints. I don't doubt there are people that are going to be pinched in this but the vast majority see it as a free vacation.

Post Merge: January 11, 2019, 08:52:49 AM
On that I agree, I hope it ends today.

I would say it depends on what job you have with the Federal Government.  High paying jobs would give someone the ability to have a good cushion of funds to fall back on, so a shutdown would actually be fun for those people.  Lower paying jobs (picking up trash or cleaning the bathrooms in our national parks) would make that impossible for families living paycheck to paycheck.  This shutdown isn't a vacation for them. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2019, 09:18:50 AM
Hoping I get lucky and get a front end thump of sleet before we warm up to rain. ::fingerscrossed:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 09:30:55 AM
Good luck to all those up in the northwest corner.  Maybe y'all will at least see some flakes flying before the changeover. 

Chris Bailey keeps most of us in the wet, not the white.   :(

(http://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Special-3-4.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on January 11, 2019, 09:31:30 AM
Sucks, but they'll get paid. They always do. If you work for the Feds you know this is always a possibility and hopefully they planned accordingly. Wish I could get a 21 days of free paid vacation.

I almost took a job with the IRS as a IT Security Architect last year. My job would have been an essential role and I would be working right now without pay. Most federal workers are paid less than private so things like gas, daycare, school, food, etc. play into the equation so this is why some have the "orange man flu" and are calling in sick. They are running out of money and there is no end in sight.

If you are a non-essential employee you will not get back pay (unless congress agrees to it) so I fail to see how your comment about "free vacation" makes sense here. These folks are losing money by the day...... all 850,000 of them!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 11, 2019, 09:33:21 AM
How is it naive? I would gladly go through it. Have a buddy who works at NASA, he's loving it. Have a couple of friends who work at FHWA, they love it. All of them went through it in 2013 and had no complaints. I don't doubt there are people that are going to be pinched in this but the vast majority see it as a free vacation.

Post Merge: January 11, 2019, 08:52:49 AM
On that I agree, I hope it ends today.

Working for NASA and being, say, a TSA agent are two completely different circumstances.

I am glad for those you know who are seeing it as a ďfree vacationĒ, but I HIGHLY doubt most are viewing it that way.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 11, 2019, 09:44:52 AM
I almost took a job with the IRS as a IT Security Architect last year. My job would have been an essential role and I would be working right now without pay.   

If you are a non-essential employee you will not get back pay (unless congress agrees to it) so I fail to see how your comment about "free vacation" makes sense here. These folks are losing money by the day...... all 850,000 of them!

Congress will agree to back pay, they always do and should.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on January 11, 2019, 10:09:07 AM
Congress will agree to back pay, they always do and should.

Yes I know that working now will likely result in backpay later, but backpay at an indefinite point in the future is working for free (working on a bet you will get paid is not a guarantee of pay). So likely I would lose money because of missing backpay, but I'm not going to work if they might not pay me.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2019, 10:33:32 AM
jesus... the 12zgfs just crushes st. Louis again next weekend... 10 inch plus. ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 10:38:39 AM
jesus... the 12zgfs just crushes st. Louis again next weekend... 10 inch plus. ::snowman::

It would be nice if that storm track would shift south and east by month's end, but stay just as active.  Hopefully, that's what will happen eventually. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 11, 2019, 10:40:20 AM
jesus... the 12zgfs just crushes st. Louis again next weekend... 10 inch plus. ::snowman::

Letís see the way things have been, Look out Des Moines.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2019, 10:41:08 AM
It would be nice if that storm track would shift south and east by month's end, but stay just as active.  Hopefully, that's what will happen eventually.
absolutely  jay ... what a winter for the ohio valley for now

Post Merge: January 11, 2019, 10:42:39 AM
these systems coming across the usa are pretty stout on long range models... we just need some colder air here...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2019, 10:46:43 AM
Snowpack to our north should be no problem. Let's just hope it helps.  ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 10:48:15 AM
I listened to 700 WLW on my way to work today (gotta love AM radio early in the morning), and Cincinnati is expecting around 6-8 inches of snow.  They also noted that this will be the heaviest snow they've seen there in 4 years.  That's a pretty long time for the Cincinnati area to wait for 6+ inches of snow. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2019, 10:49:13 AM
Snowpack to our north should be no problem. Let's just hope it helps.  ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
that's a understatement... haven't seen a snow pack just our north like this in years.... we got get some form neg nao  just a tad... to push storm track bit south

Post Merge: January 11, 2019, 10:51:02 AM
I listened to 700 WLW on my way to work today (gotta love AM radio early in the morning), and Cincinnati is expecting around 6-8 inches of snow.  They also noted that this will be the heaviest snow they've seen there in 4 years.  That's a pretty long time for the Cincinnati area to wait for 6+ inches of snow.
we think a like there... as a kid... love listen to am in early morning to get forecasts different cities... like klra out of little rock... kmox stlouis... good ole memoroes
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 11, 2019, 10:52:02 AM
that's a understatement... haven't seen a snow pack just our north like this in years.... we got get some form neg nao  just a tad... to push storm track bit south

Look out Birmingham lol. Iím full of optimism today.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2019, 10:54:10 AM
Look out Birmingham lol. Iím full of optimism today.


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hear  that Mundie... big snow coming for you man... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 10:58:08 AM
that's a understatement... haven't seen a snow pack just our north like this in years.... we got get some form neg nao  just a tad... to push storm track bit south

Post Merge: January 11, 2019, 10:51:02 AM
we think a like there... as a kid... love listen to am in early morning to get forecasts different cities... like klra out of little rock... kmox stlouis... good ole memoroes

KMOX--yes! I remember listening to that way back in the 80's early in the morning and late in the day, when you could get the signal.  As a kid I loved AM Radio, not only for the far off stations you could listen to, but it makes an excellent lightning tracker when you need to know if there are any thunderstorms around.  Just tune in on a late summer afternoon, and listen for the cracking and popping sounds lightning makes on the AM frequency.  Ah, good memories.   ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2019, 11:00:22 AM
holy jesus batman... gfs must heard me.  look at 264 hour... neg nao anyone?

Post Merge: January 11, 2019, 11:03:23 AM
12zgfs  brings the goods... just past 240   see if this holds ::fingerscrossed:: ::coffee:: ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 11:42:49 AM
GEFS (currently running) has been consistently showing winter arriving around 1/20.   Current run in progress shows the same thing--a deep, cold trough developing and digging in the east.   Actually, it's a pretty broad trough too, extending westward into the Plains--and that's a good thing.  We can still tap the Gulf with a configuration like that. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on January 11, 2019, 11:52:24 AM
Until the government shut down ends, I am not sure I trust the GFS and its American kin to show anything more than the fevered fantasies of an unsupervised teenager.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2019, 01:06:00 PM
12z euro. ... says Ohio valley...  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on January 11, 2019, 01:27:11 PM
Looks like the next 10-12 days belong to the mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and mid Atlantic. Hopefully, that's setting up those of us in the mid south for greatness by the last week of the month. Sure looks like that's where the pattern is headed.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2019, 02:08:10 PM
HEavy snow moving in on stlouis next hour.. deep dark banding off to the sw of the city ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NashRugger on January 11, 2019, 02:11:35 PM
HEavy snow moving in on stlouis next hour.. deep dark banding off to the sw of the city ...
Oh it's already here. Visibility is 1/2 mile and falling here in the Central West End.

Those higher returns is also likely bright banding due to sleet mixing in.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 02:36:41 PM
Watch live . .
https://www.earthcam.com/usa/missouri/stlouis/?cam=arch_riverview (https://www.earthcam.com/usa/missouri/stlouis/?cam=arch_riverview)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on January 11, 2019, 02:43:03 PM
Congress will agree to back pay, they always do and should.

If you were sent home and deemed non-essential you will receive no back pay as you havenít been working. If you were declared essential you are working and hope to receive back pay. They will not be reimbursing anyone who is not working. So, no one is getting a paid vacation. If you receive benefits that are withdrawn from your pay check they will be clawed back on your next check as well as the current deduction. Itís a vicious cycle. And, it was too cold the past two mornings.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2019, 02:51:10 PM
Watch live . .
https://www.earthcam.com/usa/missouri/stlouis/?cam=arch_riverview (https://www.earthcam.com/usa/missouri/stlouis/?cam=arch_riverview)
wow... barely see the arch....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 11, 2019, 03:02:44 PM
St Louis will get close to a foot out of this system. Man am I jealous!
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 11, 2019, 03:04:01 PM
10 days away but finally seeing the op Euro bring frigid air down into our neck of the woods along with snow.

Euro control beings below zero temps into the area in 8-9 days too.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: ChrisPC on January 11, 2019, 03:06:06 PM
KMOX--yes! I remember listening to that way back in the 80's early in the morning and late in the day, when you could get the signal.  As a kid I loved AM Radio, not only for the far off stations you could listen to, but it makes an excellent lightning tracker when you need to know if there are any thunderstorms around.  Just tune in on a late summer afternoon, and listen for the cracking and popping sounds lightning makes on the AM frequency.  Ah, good memories.   ::guitar::
I still listen to AM at night. I get Canada, NYC, New Orleans, Chicago, etc. I restore old radios, and I got KOA Denver clear as a bell on one a few months back!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2019, 03:45:54 PM
10 days away but finally seeing the op Euro bring frigid air down into our neck of the woods along with snow.

Euro control beings below zero temps into the area in 8-9 days too.
yeah. GEFS was showing pipe busting weather in. With several winter storm chances
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on January 11, 2019, 04:48:25 PM
Freezing rain here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 11, 2019, 05:13:07 PM
Freezing rain here.
Rain sleet mix with a few big flakes here. Oh so close to a little snow on the front end.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: shadowbird on January 11, 2019, 05:14:54 PM
Sleet here in East Hickman County. Itís 40 degrees.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on January 11, 2019, 05:17:25 PM
Snowing in Benton KY
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 05:20:55 PM
10 days away but finally seeing the op Euro bring frigid air down into our neck of the woods along with snow.

Euro control beings below zero temps into the area in 8-9 days too.

Maybe I'll finally be able to enjoy the propane logs I installed a month back.

And we may be missing a big one, but it's laying down a good snowpack just to our north and northwest.  Good refrigerant for the coming cold blasts later this month (if it all doesn't melt). 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 11, 2019, 05:31:28 PM
We could all get together and book a snow cruise in the gulf.  ::evillaugh::


(http://i64.tinypic.com/9fqzdj.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 05:42:18 PM
Not to say history can repeat itself, but several different models are showing a real Arctic plunge around 1/20-21.  Something similar occurred way back in 1985 during the same time frame that started a 4 week long winter assault.   >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on January 11, 2019, 05:51:19 PM
Starting to stick now.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 11, 2019, 05:58:51 PM
Sounds like a rough rush hour in St Louis. People are abandoning their cars in parts of the city.

Post Merge: January 11, 2019, 06:10:06 PM
It is pouring sleet atm. Temp down to 34.6.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/64oyee.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Tamlin on January 11, 2019, 07:02:17 PM
Surprised to walk outside and find sleet mixing in with rain in Olive Branch. 36 degrees.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2019, 07:12:32 PM
Friend of mine in Scott County is reporting heavy snow right now.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on January 11, 2019, 07:12:53 PM
If you were sent home and deemed non-essential you will receive no back pay as you havenít been working. If you were declared essential you are working and hope to receive back pay. They will not be reimbursing anyone who is not working. So, no one is getting a paid vacation. If you receive benefits that are withdrawn from your pay check they will be clawed back on your next check as well as the current deduction. Itís a vicious cycle. And, it was too cold the past two mornings.

That just inst true. It wasn't true in the last shutdown and Trump has already said it wouldnt be true this shutdown. Everyone will be paid, whether you are essential or non-essential.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 07:14:25 PM
Won't amount to much, but the NAM does show some snow showers or flurries flying late Sunday night into Monday across eastern areas as the current system departs. 

Post Merge: January 11, 2019, 07:17:11 PM
Friend of mine in Scott County is reporting heavy snow right now.

I noticed the pretty decent radar returns in that area, and wondered if it was reaching the ground.  Guess it is. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2019, 07:18:53 PM
Snow and rain mix reported in Dover, looks like it is fixing to enter Montgomery County. I am at 37.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Volduff64 on January 11, 2019, 07:24:54 PM
With dew points in the low 20s evaporational cooling definitely can produce some front side snow before the column turns to all rain.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2019, 07:28:44 PM
Sleeting here in woodlawn. ::popcorn::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2019, 07:55:25 PM
Radar looks strange around Nashville.  I guess dry air is making it difficult for precip to move in, while it doesn't seem to be encountering that dry air in KY. 

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2hn5kra.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2019, 07:58:23 PM
Dyersburg looks to be under some super heavy returns on radar. Need a Dyer report. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 11, 2019, 08:04:35 PM
We are a lot closer than I thought we would be. Moderate slushy rain mixed with sleet. Thatís the reason for the heavy returns. Temp at 33.8. This would have been a big one if cold air was locked in.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on January 11, 2019, 08:06:57 PM
My folks are on 40 heading back from Jackson with heavy rain, while here south of Camden is a sleet fest.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on January 11, 2019, 08:07:45 PM
Not to get too far off topic but I'm looking forward to a snowy Chiefs/Cowboys game.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2019, 08:08:12 PM
My deck is iced over, it's sleeting here still.  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2019, 08:28:06 PM
Looks like a very heavy band is about to move through Bowling Green

Post Merge: January 11, 2019, 08:37:58 PM
It's a headbanger for this blockbuster event to be just out of reach for us.

But I'm excited for what late in the month and February have in store for us. Here's to a Memphis to Bristol winter event soon.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2019, 08:44:57 PM
Not to get too far off topic but I'm looking forward to a snowy Chiefs/Cowboys game.
think you meant colts ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2019, 08:57:20 PM
It is sleeting with a big flake coming down every so often, I am down to 34. Probably won't do much but would be nice to see some big wet flakes for a little bit. It's trying. ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2019, 09:16:49 PM
Sleeting in Bellevue ( Nashville).
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on January 11, 2019, 09:18:20 PM
Sleet in Cool Springs
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on January 11, 2019, 09:26:17 PM
Our ground is covered in sleet. We have had some heavy precip in the last 30 minutes.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2019, 09:27:12 PM
Sleet in Cool Springs

Actually coming down quite hard , and its about 39F here as well. Dew Points are in the low 20's still I believe but will quickly start to climb now. Will be interesting to see if any flakes mix in briefly.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2019, 09:34:58 PM
Sleeting steady here, patio deck is covered and slick. I am at 34 with a dewpoint of 26 here. Had a few snowflakes mixing in early just a few but they were big.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 11, 2019, 09:37:10 PM
Just had some pretty big wet flakes mix in here in Henry County.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on January 11, 2019, 09:46:19 PM
Moderate to heavy sleet in Hermitage. Build up starting to occur on raised surfaces. I just walked out into the street and there is actually some accumulating in a few areas.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on January 11, 2019, 10:11:42 PM
Light sleet / rain mix has just begun here in Lascassas; the temperature is 40F with a dewpoint of 27F.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2019, 11:02:23 PM
We are down to 33, but according to radar it is now raining here. I still have sleet and rain falling here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2019, 11:11:57 PM
The 0zgfs is bringing the artic Down folks ::cold:: ::cold::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2019, 11:15:03 PM
Considering that I am going to PR for 10 days starting the 21st, Ill miss a good period, and it will likely snow in Nashville lol :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 11, 2019, 11:25:47 PM
I would say maybe confidence is increasing for colder wintry pattern coming up in the next couple of weeks.

(https://www.soundandvision.com/images/styles/600_wide/public/090914_Signals_promo.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 11, 2019, 11:52:37 PM
It is 3 degrees in Dyersburg while this is happening.  ::faint::


(http://i66.tinypic.com/2lk733k.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on January 12, 2019, 02:12:07 AM
The pattern change towards winter weather looks imminent. Tonight's 0Z FV3-GFS has several chances for snow with major cold through out the entire run.

Jan-19
(https://i.imgur.com/NYlGGTc.png)

Jan-23
(https://i.imgur.com/dGfDgat.png)

Jan-25
(https://i.imgur.com/AIRbtdr.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 12, 2019, 05:42:10 AM
Looks like the cold we've been hearing about and waiting for is finally making a move toward us in the long range.  Now, if we can just keep the active storm track going along with it, we'll be in business. 

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 05:57:11 AM
06Z GFS starts the Polar express on 1/21.   Successive cold shots continue until 1/26, when some true Arctic air comes down on top of us.  If we could get a snowpack down, below zero temps would be likely.  V3 of the GFS puts significant snow on the ground in parts of west/middle TN with the initial cold shot on 1/20.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2019, 07:35:49 AM
Looks like the cold we've been hearing about and waiting for is finally making a move toward us in the long range.  Now, if we can just keep the active storm track going along with it, we'll be in business. 

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 05:57:11 AM
06Z GFS starts the Polar express on 1/21.   Successive cold shots continue until 1/26, when some true Arctic air comes down on top of us.  If we could get a snowpack down, below zero temps would be likely.  V3 of the GFS puts significant snow on the ground in parts of west/middle TN with the initial cold shot on 1/20.
mjo appears to heading in more favorable phases also... 7 8 1.. stormy phases ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2019, 07:55:28 AM
Really loving how Jan 18-31 is setting up!  ::fingerscrossed:: :) :) :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2019, 08:00:03 AM
Really loving how Jan 18-31 is setting up!  ::fingerscrossed:: :) :) :)
yeah. ... 2 major threats in that time frame at least... both have potential to be big dogs also ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NashRugger on January 12, 2019, 09:56:42 AM
So far I have 10.5" total with light snow continuing.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2019, 10:59:00 AM
12zgfs continues with the artic blast coming... ::cold:: ::cold:: ::cold::

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 11:01:09 AM
edit.  12z gfs has a monster winter storm just to our southeast   . Atlanta gets blasted with nearly 10 inches snow.... right were we want it for now... northwest trend baby ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on January 12, 2019, 11:51:01 AM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

This is an overall pretty good look.  Would be even better with a Greenland Block (-NAO) but we have rocked a good pattern without it.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2019, 12:08:01 PM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

This is an overall pretty good look.  Would be even better with a Greenland Block (-NAO) but we have rocked a good pattern without it.
appears a net nao be later month ... ensemble supports it
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 12, 2019, 12:10:10 PM
12zgfs continues with the artic blast coming... ::cold:: ::cold:: ::cold::

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 11:01:09 AM
edit.  12z gfs has a monster winter storm just to our southeast   . Atlanta gets blasted with nearly 10 inches snow.... right were we want it for now... northwest trend baby ::coffee::

Per weatherbell- Atlanta only has a dusting. Tennessee looks pretty good on that run but itís still more than a week out. What else do I like on the 12z GFS? That little ole Brownsville TX snowstorm. Love it when tropical Texas sees snow. Thatís means cold means business.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2019, 12:25:06 PM
Per weatherbell- Atlanta only has a dusting. Tennessee looks pretty good on that run but itís still more than a week out. What else do I like on the 12z GFS? That little ole Brownsville TX snowstorm. Love it when tropical Texas sees snow. Thatís means cold means business.
love see a nw gulf low coming out in this pattern ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on January 12, 2019, 12:50:37 PM
12z Euro looks on board also for next weekend ::snowman:: Heavy Sleet and Snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 12, 2019, 01:01:17 PM
12z Euro looks on board also for next weekend ::snowman:: Heavy Sleet and Snow.
Wow, got that right!  Looks to be a nearly statewide event.  Hope this hold through the week!


Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 01:12:50 PM
From the progressing of the storm, it starts as rain, then Arctic air begins to undercut the moisture as the system develops.  Rain changes to freezing rain, sleet, then heavy snow.  Temps drop from the 40's on Saturday into the teens by Sunday morning.  This would make for an epic system, and it falls on the weekend.  Perfect.   ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 12, 2019, 01:22:41 PM
Sidebar, but what is it about people and driving in snow?
People love to go on an ego trip about how they can drive in snow and mock people who canít. Iíve never understood that.

I donít care who you are, once you get snow packed on a road and it turns into a slushy ice, ainít nobody going to be able to drive well on it.

Iím bringing this up because I was looking at Twitter last night and people were going on and on about St Louis being in a standstill.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2019, 01:25:32 PM
12z euro.... MOTHER GOD
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 12, 2019, 01:29:57 PM
Week away but statewide snow.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/ae0g0k.jpg)(http://i65.tinypic.com/dq1zkw.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on January 12, 2019, 01:34:18 PM
Yep, the Euro is on board. ::snowman:: ::snowman::

(https://i.imgur.com/XQvr22a.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2019, 01:38:34 PM
Yep, the Euro is on board. ::snowman:: ::snowman::

(https://i.imgur.com/XQvr22a.png)

[attachimg=1]

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 01:39:07 PM
(Attachment Link)

Well, gif didn't work properly... but you get the image hahaha

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 12, 2019, 01:52:46 PM
If the Euro is in our camp, confidence level in something major next weekend in our area really jumps.  We've got a legitimate threat to watch this week.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on January 12, 2019, 02:16:37 PM
If the Euro is in our camp, confidence level in something major next weekend in our area really jumps.  We've got a legitimate threat to watch this week.   ::coffee::
I sure hope it isnít like a rollarcoaster ride. I hope it just gets better with each model run.  I hate going a week with inconsistent runs.  For once I wish they could all agree or at least be close. 🤓🤓🤓
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 12, 2019, 02:19:38 PM
I sure hope it isnít like a rollarcoaster ride. I hope it just gets better with each model run.  I hate going a week with inconsistent runs.  For once I wish they could all agree or at least be close. 🤓🤓🤓

Agree with that!  Once you cross 40, rollercoasters ain't nearly as fun as they used to be.   :P
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2019, 02:21:03 PM
I sure hope it isnít like a rollarcoaster ride. I hope it just gets better with each model run.  I hate going a week with inconsistent runs.  For once I wish they could all agree or at least be close. 🤓🤓🤓
one thing Im seeing they agree on for sure is... next weekend on out... looks very cold n stormy.... ::snowman:: ::cold::

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 02:22:21 PM
Agree with that!  Once you cross 40, rollercoasters ain't nearly as fun as they used to be.   :P
you are talking bout  I 40 correct?... ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2019, 02:31:27 PM
^ Bruce in here with the jokes   8)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: justinmundie on January 12, 2019, 02:37:22 PM
(Attachment Link)

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 01:39:07 PM
Well, gif didn't work properly... but you get the image hahaha

Birmingham with a trace!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 12, 2019, 02:44:59 PM
Yep, the Euro is on board. ::snowman:: ::snowman::

(https://i.imgur.com/XQvr22a.png)

Not really digging the lighter blue in Henry County lol


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 12, 2019, 02:46:00 PM
o
Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 02:22:21 PM
you are talking bout  I 40 correct?... ;)
Ha.  It was meant to be taken either way.   8)
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 12, 2019, 02:49:15 PM
Kansas City getting a nice wallop of snow  during the pregame coverage heading into the playoff game this afternoon.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on January 12, 2019, 03:01:55 PM
Kansas City getting a nice wallop of snow  during the pregame coverage heading into the playoff game this afternoon.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190112/fa758f31f0336881fb8b74c019d3c4d0.jpg)



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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 12, 2019, 03:32:29 PM
one thing I do like about living south of 1-40 in lewis county is a lot of the time the heavier moisture is closer to the Bama/TN border...but sometimes it pushes us to 34 degrees and rain/sleet lol. But the times it perfectly combines we get walloped...about every 4-5 years we get a good 6-8 inch snow from that combo south of I-40
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on January 12, 2019, 04:01:20 PM
Agree with that!  Once you cross 40, rollercoasters ain't nearly as fun as they used to be.   :P

45 and I go to Cedar Point every year.  Age is just a number :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 12, 2019, 04:24:22 PM
Not really digging the lighter blue in Henry County lol

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It will get better in time Drift, I feel we are going to see some good action in the coming weeks. I think next weekend will work out for us. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 12, 2019, 04:42:42 PM
I was so caught up in looking at next weekend, I didn't realize that some major winter weather was taking place just over the mountains from east TN this weekend.


Quote
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected starting this
  afternoon, changing over to mainly freezing rain tonight.
  Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to two inches and ice
  accumulations of one tenth to four tenths of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Western North Carolina mountain locations along and
  east of the central and northern Blue Ridge mountains, the
  adjacent North Carolina foothills, and the northwest piedmont
  of western North Carolina. Also, northern Greenville County in
  South Carolina.

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cbrentv318 on January 12, 2019, 04:46:34 PM
January 20 is a super moon also. 


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 12, 2019, 05:00:23 PM
OHX discussion this afternoon regarding next weekend...

Quote
Model differences really scream out at you for Friday and beyond
as the GFS is much more aggressive with next weekend`s
system...the before and after. In fact, take it for what you will,
MEX Guidance for Nashville literally has a 54 degree temperature
swing over 36 hours (72F for Friday afternoon to 18F for Sunday
morning)! That`s like some Blue Norther/Great Plains temperature
difference (okay okay okay...I know it takes a mere 4-8 hours for
that to happen out in the Plains but a 36 hour temperature
difference such as the above that far in the extended is quite
impressive for Middle Tennessee). Meanwhile in taking a look at
the Euro, quite the difference in model comparisons...not nearly
as warm and not nearly as cold. Regardless, the Friday-Saturday
Night timeframe looks wet and possibly even frozen towards
Saturday Night into Sunday. Something to definitely keep an eye on
as this system looks to be quite robust with some cold arctic air
in behind it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 12, 2019, 05:51:41 PM
OHX discussion this afternoon regarding next weekend...

Now that's the winters I remember growing up with.  It's been a long time since even the Great Plains had a Blue Norther. 

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 06:10:34 PM
Atlanta's take on next weekend:

Quote
The backside of this system is just outside the
timeframe for the extended, but could prove to be interesting as
ECMWF indicates extensive wrap around component that aligns with
much colder air rushing in at the surface and aloft. In fact,
looks increasingly likely we are headed to a significant pattern
shift
in the medium term that could lead to much colder
conditions.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2019, 06:10:50 PM
Bring back Winter  ::applause::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on January 12, 2019, 06:21:07 PM
Looks like the Colts missed their warm indoor stadium today.  I think Chiefs got this one!  Yay!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on January 12, 2019, 06:24:36 PM
Remember that El-Nino climo is our friend in February.  The EPO block will likely lead to this being quite a sustained period of cold. If we can get a solid -NAO that would even rock some more but a neutral NAO is not a dealbreaker.   Combine that with the subtropical jet and you will have opportunities abound.  I feel very confident that everyone from the Ohio River to Interstate 20 will have at least one opportunity to see a warning criteria event during the January 20th to March 5th window and most if not all of Tennessee and adjacent parts of other states should see multiple threats of warning criteria activity. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 12, 2019, 06:28:33 PM
I am trying to keep my snow weenie in check.  It is not easy with what the models are showing.  We actually might experience what it used to be like as kids.  The gefs snowfall mean is  ::faint::  Even half of it would be crazy.  The temps being shown also are  ::wow::  If this comes to fruition.  There is going to be snow on ground for awhile.  Better make sure your washer solvent in vehicles is ready for long duration freezing temps.  Also make sure your pipes are ready.  Incredible that this is actually within 7-8 days.   :o
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on January 12, 2019, 06:34:53 PM
Scared to see what MRX says......probably sunny, mid 60s

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 12, 2019, 06:41:32 PM
I am trying to keep my snow weenie in check. 

Oh, come on, after all these years, just let your snow weenie run free!

(https://i2.wp.com/www.dailydachshundanddognews.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/Screen-shot-2011-11-18-at-11.49.30-PM.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on January 12, 2019, 07:06:33 PM
So far so good on next weekend.  Would be nice to get a good midsouth snow storm with ~4+ accumulations in the area.  The cold air coming down the pike looks to be a lock in at minimum.

I am missing living in southern NJ with this current storm. It looks like where I use to live may sneak a nice 3-6 inch event out of nothing depending on what the trailing upper level energy does.  Needless to say, surprise snows were a little more of a thing up there versus down here.  ::snowman::

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 07:10:01 PM
Oh, come on, after all these years, just let your snow weenie run free!

(https://i2.wp.com/www.dailydachshundanddognews.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/Screen-shot-2011-11-18-at-11.49.30-PM.png)

I am a simple man. Dog picture + snow?  Automatic like and you are now my best friend.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on January 12, 2019, 07:50:00 PM
Whelp. Iím going all in on this one. It shall be the hill I make my last stand on.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 12, 2019, 08:00:49 PM
For over 15 years I had a Davis weather station, but they are pricey.  When it kicked the bucket last year, I went with a more affordable Ambient weather station.  They have many options (thermometers, weather stations) that are of decent quality and more affordable.  I've had one for a year now with no problem, and it seems reasonably accurate. 

https://www.ambientweather.com/west.html (https://www.ambientweather.com/west.html)

Post Merge: January 11, 2019, 06:51:04 AM
My problem is that congress still gets paid during a shutdown, while other Federal employees do not.  To be fair, Congress and the President should also work for nothing during any shutdown they create (not that most of them would even miss their paycheck compared to the "real" working class of America).
Congress still gets paid and even has the use of the Congressional fitness center (it's an "essential service").  That and the special health care plan-- one of the many reasons to hate Congress.

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 12, 2019, 08:03:35 PM
Yeah, I didn't want to delve into the political realm either.  I just find it ridiculous our NWS employees are keeping us informed without pay, currently.  But, it is what it is. 

I got down to 20 this morning, and on my way to work I noticed a 19 on the car therm.  Coldest morning in a long time.
Granted-- that part is stupid.  If something is am "essential service", you should be able to get your paycheck.  Here's the deal- although far from ideal, people furloughed without pay do have the opportunity, at least, to make money via other means.

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 12, 2019, 08:12:24 PM
Whelp. Iím going all in on this one. It shall be the hill I make my last stand on.

And, if anyone tries to take it away from us, it will be taken from our cold... frost bitten... hands.

(https://media2.s-nbcnews.com/j/streams/2013/March/130305/1C6302646-tdy-130305-ent-heston-ten-commandments-tease.fit-760w.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 12, 2019, 08:19:21 PM


I almost took a job with the IRS as a IT Security Architect last year. My job would have been an essential role and I would be working right now without pay. Most federal workers are paid less than private so things like gas, daycare, school, food, etc. play into the equation so this is why some have the "orange man flu" and are calling in sick. They are running out of money and there is no end in sight.

If you are a non-essential employee you will not get back pay (unless congress agrees to it) so I fail to see how your comment about "free vacation" makes sense here. These folks are losing money by the day...... all 850,000 of them!

Congress will pay everyone out but I do would argue that the pay rate per hour for government employees is much higher than in the private sector.

Case in point-- the IRS you were speaking of has plenty of Accountants but they don't work overtime.   Try being an accountant in the private sector without working overtime.

IT is basically the same way. 

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 12, 2019, 08:32:29 PM
What is this talk about the GOAT snowstorm next weekend? 

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2019, 08:36:04 PM
Shutdown talk and workers waiting to receive their pay reminds my parents of life in the Soviet Union in the 1970s. Not happy memories.

Standing in line for hours just for your paycheck that was supposed to be ready weeks beforehand, being placed on a wait list to get a car (which normally took 5 years or longer), and the insane amounts of contacts you would have to make just to receive basic services. That's what it was like in the Byelorussian SSR. When they moved to West Germany in 1990, it felt like a different world.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 12, 2019, 09:04:06 PM
Can we make a separate thread for the govt shut down talk.  Seems we are fixing to enter fun times in the winter dept.  Thank you in advance.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Vols1 on January 12, 2019, 09:11:36 PM
I was about to say the same thing Matthew
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 12, 2019, 09:16:46 PM
What is this talk about the GOAT snowstorm next weekend? 

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(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/a295b7e8ace98222b3b4827888b9b43ca127034f/c=0-169-1714-1461/local/-/media/USATODAY/USATODAY/2014/03/29//1396112914000-AP-Mountain-Goats.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 12, 2019, 09:21:27 PM
can anybody post images of this potential snow setup for this coming weekend? I have trouble knowing where to find all the data....I love to read the maps/data, I just have trouble finding the exact ones you all normally post :). Hoping for a widespread 4-6+ for all of us snow lovers statewide. Been a LOOOONG time since we all got a big one
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 12, 2019, 09:27:24 PM
Next weekend is starting to feel like Christmas when I was a kid.  All this anticipation over a potential snowstorm.  Oh well, at least I still have somethin' to get excited about.   ;D

I have a feeling I'm not going to get much sleep this week.   ::sleeping::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on January 12, 2019, 09:32:44 PM
I'm having a hard time keeping my hopes down...I have a good feeling about next weekend.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2019, 09:44:00 PM
Next weekend is starting to feel like Christmas when I was a kid.  All this anticipation over a potential snowstorm.  Oh well, at least I still have somethin' to get excited about.   ;D

I have a feeling I'm not going to get much sleep this week.   ::sleeping::
trust. Me. A lot of us going be low on sleep for next two weeks at least. Iím seeing
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 12, 2019, 09:45:54 PM
I'm having a hard time keeping my hopes down...I have a good feeling about next weekend.
Look at it this way--

1) the Chiefs won a home playoff game
2). They did so by beating the Colts
3). They are hosting the very first AFC Championship game to ever take place at iconic Arrowhead Stadium, which is 46 years young.


Perhaps, it is our time just like-after a long, long wait - it is finally their time.

Who was the last team to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs before the curse was over?

The one and only- Tennessee Titans.

It's time.



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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 12, 2019, 09:48:03 PM
Keep in mind- very mild air on the front side of the system. You know how cold air chasing precip normally work out for us more often than not... not a great batting average.

Not to say it canít happen. This will be an opportunity to see if a rain changing to snow scenario can work out.

I see this more as the pattern changer, and what lies beyond may become more interesting.

But, as always, weíll see...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 12, 2019, 09:58:08 PM
I think someone will see a good thump of snow with the initial cold air push, and it may be areas in west/middle TN into KY as the GFS V3 is showing.  The second system that follows seems to favor areas further east.  Still a long way off, and plenty of time to watch.  I'm rooting for today's Euro solution. ::fingerscrossed::

Either way, knowing how things work in the south, I'll probably hit the grocery store early this week.  Once this starts making news, the stores will be far too crowded for my taste.   :P
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2019, 10:14:45 PM
Can we make a separate thread for the govt shut down talk.  Seems we are fixing to enter fun times in the winter dept.  Thank you in advance.

I second this motion
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2019, 10:19:21 PM
I second this motion
screw. The govt....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2019, 10:25:08 PM
screw. The govt....

Git em Bruce!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 12, 2019, 10:34:47 PM
I second this motion
I'm having a hard time keeping my hopes down...I have a good feeling about next weekend.
Consider it done.  I'm not scared of high expectations. 

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 12, 2019, 10:43:30 PM
Can we make a separate thread for the govt shut down talk.  Seems we are fixing to enter fun times in the winter dept.  Thank you in advance.
I was about to say the same thing Matthew
I'm having a hard time keeping my hopes down...I have a good feeling about next weekend.
I second this motion
Oops-I thought by separate thread you meant on the storm.  Oh well, perhaps it's just meant to be!

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 12, 2019, 11:14:22 PM
yeah these rain to snow situations never seem to work out so well lol :(. Usually northwest TN paris,clarksville ,erin etc do good on these  Ö.maybe for once we will get it with this scenario...and by that I mean a widespread 4 inch pus
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2019, 12:34:02 AM
Wow ... the new gfs 0z. Is bringing -10 degrees to Memphis  -15 Nashville end of the run ... record historic cold run ther verbatim ... ::wow::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 13, 2019, 12:41:39 AM
Wow ... the new gfs 0z. Is bringing -10 degrees to Memphis  -15 Nashville end of the run ... record historic cold run ther verbatim ... ::wow::
Yep with snow out in front of it. I doubt we go that cold, but wow at them temps. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 13, 2019, 01:33:18 AM
Wow ... the new gfs 0z. Is bringing -10 degrees to Memphis  -15 Nashville end of the run ... record historic cold run ther verbatim ... ::wow::
That's not quite GOAT temps but it's close-  Top 5.

Also, I think it is very possible based on several factors-- not the least of which is the PV split in late December.

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Tamlin on January 13, 2019, 01:38:11 AM
Iíve checked three GFS sources and see no such thing as extreme cold. As a matter of fact, next weekís storm is cold chasing rain with temps dropping into the mid-teens for central TN to mid-20s in the West.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on January 13, 2019, 05:09:22 AM
Iíve checked three GFS sources and see no such thing as extreme cold. As a matter of fact, next weekís storm is cold chasing rain with temps dropping into the mid-teens for central TN to mid-20s in the West.
I assume they are referring to the new version FV3-GFS. It was much colder in the long range than the old GFS on both the 18Z and 0Z runs.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: justinmundie on January 13, 2019, 06:56:43 AM
The latest fvs (in fantasy land) has about the coldest North America that Iíve ever seen modeled.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2019, 07:16:38 AM
The latest fvs (in fantasy land) has about the coldest North America that Iíve ever seen modeled.
it is the coldest run I have ever seen modeled before...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on January 13, 2019, 08:17:46 AM
I couldn't begin to tell you how this affects weather, but I feel that it does in some way, in particular solar activity. Magnetic north is on the move, and very erratically.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00007-1?fbclid=IwAR3raDnh76EEDsIF0djDFjbKXgACaOZc5zmv7nRrAfAuco2lLSDl6FY-2O0 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00007-1?fbclid=IwAR3raDnh76EEDsIF0djDFjbKXgACaOZc5zmv7nRrAfAuco2lLSDl6FY-2O0)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Cody on January 13, 2019, 08:31:55 AM
I couldn't begin to tell you how this affects weather, but I feel that it does in some way, in particular solar activity. Magnetic north is on the move, and very erratically.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00007-1?fbclid=IwAR3raDnh76EEDsIF0djDFjbKXgACaOZc5zmv7nRrAfAuco2lLSDl6FY-2O0 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00007-1?fbclid=IwAR3raDnh76EEDsIF0djDFjbKXgACaOZc5zmv7nRrAfAuco2lLSDl6FY-2O0)
Iíve been saying for the past few years that the poles are shifting.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 13, 2019, 08:52:47 AM
Almost all models backed off on any snow next weekend. St Louis however gets another 10-14. Looks like itís their winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on January 13, 2019, 08:53:26 AM
Almost all models backed off on any snow next weekend. St Louis however gets another 10-14. Looks like itís their winter.

Oh well not surprised.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 13, 2019, 09:32:53 AM
It looked like the new version of GFS turned rain over to snow late Saturday night-early sunday morning on 6z run to me. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2019, 10:34:37 AM
Almost all models backed off on any snow next weekend. St Louis however gets another 10-14. Looks like itís their winter.
that kind of snow snow pack, just 4 and half hours north of here... has to help us sooner than later...would think it help colder air get down suppressing the storm track further south... we see
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on January 13, 2019, 10:56:47 AM
that kind of snow snow pack, just 4 and half hours north of here... has to help us sooner than later...would think it help colder air get down suppressing the storm track further south... we see

Wont a good chuck of this snow be gone by the middle/end of this week? Its going to get above freezing with some sun then rain on Thursday for a good portion of the area.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2019, 11:31:34 AM
Wont a good chuck of this snow be gone by the middle/end of this week? Its going to get above freezing with some sun then rain on Thursday for a good portion of the area.
some melting would occur. Agree... how much. Depends on timing artic air suppose ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 13, 2019, 11:47:28 AM
Deja vu anyone?

[attachimg=1]


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on January 13, 2019, 11:48:39 AM
some melting would occur. Agree... how much. Depends on timing artic air suppose ...

Keep in mind we have a much higher sun angle than lets say Canada.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 13, 2019, 11:48:52 AM
What a shift in the storm track.  Yesterday, the heavy snow band was right over TN.  Then it shifted north of the Ohio River last night.  Today, GFS V3 has it in lower Michigan.  Next run, it may north of the U.S. border altogether. 

Post Merge: January 13, 2019, 11:51:44 AM
Deja vu anyone?

(Attachment Link)


Wow, it really is their winter (St. Louis).  Perhaps, we can hope for a southward shift in the storm track at some point. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 13, 2019, 12:19:04 PM
If the new GFS  is correct , and thatís a big if , welcome to the 1977.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2019, 12:34:48 PM
for me to ever even believe we are going to get snow I will need to see a low almost near tampa a week out...because I know the northwest trend would take it our way lol. Or I can stop dreaming and model watching and just wait...Sometimes I feel like I will never again see a 4+ inch snow here :(. Been since 2010 for me
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 13, 2019, 12:37:16 PM
Models seem to trying to hone in on a few systems over the next few weeks. Not seeing to much consistency from run to run, but the overall pattern is looking good. It should be interesting in the next 2-3 days if we start to see the models hone in on this weeks solution and beyond. Got to like our chances in the next few weeks, it's not automatic by no means in our neck of the woods. But I like the look, now we just got to time things right. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 13, 2019, 12:39:17 PM
If the new GFS  is correct , and thatís a big if , welcome to the 1977.

Where do yíall view previous year statistics and things of that nature?


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 13, 2019, 12:50:51 PM
Where do yíall view previous year statistics and things of that nature?


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http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2019, 12:52:35 PM
Models seem to trying to hone in on a few systems over the next few weeks. Not seeing to much consistency from run to run, but the overall pattern is looking good. It should be interesting in the next 2-3 days if we start to see the models hone in on this weeks solution and beyond. Got to like our chances in the next few weeks, it's not automatic by no means in our neck of the woods. But I like the look, now we just got to time things right. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
if models are correct in long range temps right... we wont have to time things.... just bring the systems along... and it looks stormy
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on January 13, 2019, 01:00:54 PM
The 12Z FV3 is probably the most wintry looking model run I've ever seen. Yes, there is another mid-Missisippi/Ohio Valley special at day 8 or 9, but that sets the table for the Arctic hammer to drop. Multiple winter threats in there. I'm sure it will not happen like that, but it's fun to look at.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 13, 2019, 01:29:21 PM
I guess more than looking at specifics, the trend is definitely colder as we progress through January (and much colder than anything we've seen in the last two winters).  Storminess looks to continue as well.  For the moment, the storm track is just a little to our west and north, but that will change.  Troughs tend to progress or retrograde over time.  I don't see any sign that this one will retrograde west, so chances are, at some point, we'll be sitting more in the "snow zone" as the trough shifts eastward as winter advances.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on January 13, 2019, 01:34:20 PM
Models seem to trying to hone in on a few systems over the next few weeks. Not seeing to much consistency from run to run, but the overall pattern is looking good. It should be interesting in the next 2-3 days if we start to see the models hone in on this weeks solution and beyond. Got to like our chances in the next few weeks, it's not automatic by no means in our neck of the woods. But I like the look, now we just got to time things right. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
I think you nailed it Snowman. Its all about timing and its to early to speculate still 6-7 days out. Storms usually not sampled either until 48-72 hours out.

Post Merge: January 13, 2019, 01:35:10 PM
Models seem to trying to hone in on a few systems over the next few weeks. Not seeing to much consistency from run to run, but the overall pattern is looking good. It should be interesting in the next 2-3 days if we start to see the models hone in on this weeks solution and beyond. Got to like our chances in the next few weeks, it's not automatic by no means in our neck of the woods. But I like the look, now we just got to time things right. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
I think you nailed it Snowman. Its all about timing and its to early to speculate still 6-7 days out. Storms usually not sampled either until 48-72 hours out.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on January 13, 2019, 01:44:38 PM
Holy ****
I know itís near the end of the run, but if this verifies. WOW. Not 1 morning, but 2.
January 27...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190113/941783bd0e85ee432f4e74eed2a29cc2.jpg)

January 29...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190113/1d229a1780856f2374424738a6f6eaf6.jpg)


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on January 13, 2019, 02:22:57 PM
I ran the Disney marathon this morning, ending 4 straight days of races in Orlando. It was hot here today. 81 for a high and mid 60ís at race time. Enjoying the pool at my sisterís new house this evening. The water is actually way too cold to swim in, but it feels nice on these weary feet. Looking forward to maybe seeing some actual winter temperatures when I get back home.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on January 13, 2019, 03:44:22 PM
Holy ****
I know itís near the end of the run, but if this verifies. WOW. Not 1 morning, but 2.
January 27...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190113/941783bd0e85ee432f4e74eed2a29cc2.jpg)

January 29...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190113/1d229a1780856f2374424738a6f6eaf6.jpg)


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Thatís a naw from me dawg.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on January 13, 2019, 05:43:16 PM
I ran the Disney marathon this morning, ending 4 straight days of races in Orlando. It was hot here today. 81 for a high and mid 60ís at race time. Enjoying the pool at my sisterís new house this evening. The water is actually way too cold to swim in, but it feels nice on these weary feet. Looking forward to maybe seeing some actual winter temperatures when I get back home.
Congrats on finishing the challenge!

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 13, 2019, 06:10:08 PM
Still wild weather on the horizon. Taken verbatim the 2nd storm on the 18z FV3 last for 30 hours.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 13, 2019, 09:08:35 PM
 ::deadhorse::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2019, 11:02:15 PM
Wow ... if the 0z gfs correct ... we going be shoveling snow folks ... nice nice run...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 14, 2019, 06:12:05 AM
Good morning GFS (I want to believe it so badly, but it is the GFS...so keep that caveat in mind!)

[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2019, 06:48:41 AM
The GEFS mean through the end of the run is 4 to 10 inches statewide. That is strong for a mean.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NismoWx on January 14, 2019, 06:50:38 AM
What they did there, I see it... (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190114/23ee575b08acbb23bb0c3efa10261467.jpg)

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2019, 07:35:34 AM
The GEFS mean through the end of the run is 4 to 10 inches statewide. That is strong for a mean.

I noticed the mean increasing with each run for TN.  Good to see.



Post Merge: January 14, 2019, 07:47:01 AM
Good morning GFS (I want to believe it so badly, but it is the GFS...so keep that caveat in mind!)

(Attachment Link)
(Attachment Link)

Sure wish the Euro would throw us a bone today.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NismoWx on January 14, 2019, 07:50:43 AM
Currently flurries on the Plateau at Crab Orchard exit, I-40.

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Flash on January 14, 2019, 08:03:14 AM
Good morning GFS (I want to believe it so badly, but it is the GFS...so keep that caveat in mind!)

(Attachment Link)
(Attachment Link)

You and me both. Still far enough away to draw inspiration on the signal. That plains HP is so strong, it makes sense to think the air wrapping up around it should keep some precip around after the front has moved through. I'd think with such a system your location is a decent spot.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2019, 08:05:24 AM
You and me both. Still far enough away to draw inspiration on the signal. That plains HP is so strong, it makes sense to think the air wrapping up around it should keep some precip around after the front has moved through. I'd think with such a system your location is a decent spot.

It would also make sense that LP would track further south like the GFS shows, compared to the Euro tracking it through KY with such a strong HP pressing south.  Hopefully, today we'll see the Euro trend southward with the LP.   ::fingerscrossed:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 14, 2019, 08:57:55 AM
based on the last SEVERAL systems in the past few years looks like yet again just north of the TN border will get slammed :(.

 Hopefully our LOW will track just a little farther south ... I am tired of waiting on the "next" one only to see it not happen and then say wait until " next year lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2019, 09:01:27 AM
Quote
Hopefully our LOW will track just a little farther south ... I am tired of waiting on the "next" one only to see it not happen and then say wait until " next year lol

Yep. Common theme the past 10 years.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 14, 2019, 09:15:35 AM
funny thing is every year since the last BIG snow in 2010 I keep saying I am not paying attention to models any more than 2 days out, and every year I am back for more.

Something about winter systems just fascinate me...maybe it's because the solutions change so much sometimes within 24 hours before the storm. I remember I think it was 2017 when pretty much from the Alabama border up to the TN border we were all in the sweet spot for 5-8 inches just 24 hours before the storm....The next morning you wake up and see that you are only going to get mostly rain and Kentucky got hammered because as always it seems the trend shifts north, Just fascinates me how hard winter weather is to forecast 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 14, 2019, 09:17:00 AM

 Hopefully our LOW will track just a little farther south ... I am tired of waiting on the "next" one only to see it not happen and then say wait until " next year lol

Welcome to TNWX! 😂😉
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2019, 09:26:16 AM
funny thing is every year since the last BIG snow in 2010 I keep saying I am not paying attention to models any more than 2 days out, and every year I am back for more.

Something about winter systems just fascinate me...maybe it's because the solutions change so much sometimes within 24 hours before the storm. I remember I think it was 2017 when pretty much from the Alabama border up to the TN border we were all in the sweet spot for 5-8 inches just 24 hours before the storm....The next morning you wake up and see that you are only going to get mostly rain and Kentucky got hammered because as always it seems the trend shifts north, Just fascinates me how hard winter weather is to forecast

Originally a Kentuckian, I know how you feel.  Most of my family still lives up there, and I have to endure constant pics of snow.  Two sisters in far northern KY near Cincinnati just had 7 inches.  It hurts so bad.   ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 14, 2019, 10:21:30 AM
Tell me if this makes sense....Seems to me that these backside of the low systems don't work out for us because the moisture is coming from the Gulf and it rarely rotates "ALL" the way around the backside and the rest of us are in a dry slot

We do much better with cold air settled already so when we get a low around n.o or Jackson ms the moisture is just thrown north into our cold air....idk maybe I am not making sense lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mtcards on January 14, 2019, 11:22:59 AM
Our problem is that there doesnt seem to be any mechanism to keep the cold blocked in.   Sure, the cold shots are there, and probably coming with near record cold, but depending on the models, its either a cutter fest or a constant cold chasing the rain scenarios.   Unless we get some blocking, its going to take threading the needle again,
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2019, 11:38:15 AM
SOI after staying neutral for a few days is now plummeting. We are about back to where we were in November. El NiŮo about to act like itself finally- albeit weak. That should help with the pacific even more.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 14, 2019, 11:39:48 AM
New GFS went even further north on 12z run. Just a glancing blow of frozen on backside that run. I know folks are tense about us getting a good one, I know it's hard but we can't live run to run because the models are going to continue to adjust as we go in time in this active period. Still feel good about the next few weeks and still hopeful for next weekends system. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 14, 2019, 11:46:28 AM
I just go with trends...and the trend has always been a glancing blow on backside low pulling away from us type of systems far more often than not. Just hardly ever enough moisture with these left when cold air gets here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Flash on January 14, 2019, 12:15:15 PM
New GFS went even further north on 12z run. Just a glancing blow of frozen on backside that run. I know folks are tense about us getting a good one, I know it's hard but we can't live run to run because the models are going to continue to adjust as we go in time in this active period. Still feel good about the next few weeks and still hopeful for next weekends system. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

I wouldn't sweat the ops over 5 days out as we're currently in ensemble territory. Big picture, PV should remain split, tanking SOI as Curt mentioned, weak NiŮo wave train on route, curious where MJO will land once out of the COD (worth noting it has hung a hard right  ::pondering::). PV/cold transport proxy per EPS/GEFS encouraging for snow lovers through early/mid Feb. For the weekend storm, Z500 + heights look good. Progressive CAA, banana HP setup, LP cutter well east of the Aps...perhaps we'll get a baroclinic boost. Given many valley locales haven't seen snow this year, 3-6 hours of measurable anafrontal-ish QPF even if it's <1" should be welcomed. Either way, not a typical cold chasing rain scenario as the temp drop sure looks it will beat the precip shield to the exit. If this potential threat 'busts', got another shot next midweek. Like our chances to reach average snow climo by month's end the way things stand now.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 14, 2019, 12:31:54 PM
Sometimes I wonder how todayís models would handle the all time ďgreatsĒ for winter storms.

For example- if it was Ď85 or Ď88 again... or fill in the blank on the biggest winter storms in the past... would we be in shock and awe on the certainty of what the models might have showed, or would it be a flip flop run to run like weíre accustomed to.

A lot of you youngsters donít remember the storms of the 1980s. But, then again, I donít remember some of the greats from the Ď60s or Ď70s either.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2019, 12:33:23 PM
GFS V3 currently running has an unusually powerful clipper system on 1/26, unleashing the Arctic, and bringing some snow squalls with it.  These are the Arctic fronts of old--bringing about six hours of heavy snow, wind, and bitter cold.  I know it's a long way off, but there ya have it. 

Who knows if it will happen, but dang, it's sure pretty to look at.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 14, 2019, 12:45:59 PM
Snow squalls can be fun.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2019, 12:47:44 PM
the gefs snow mean just keeps on increasing or the whole state... pattern looks to amped for a clipper type system next two weeks or so... ensembles showing some big dogs

Post Merge: January 14, 2019, 12:50:58 PM
pattern getting right for a big apps runner within week 10 days... opps going very from run to run  with some big dogs... fun to look at ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on January 14, 2019, 12:56:37 PM
Sometimes I wonder how todayís models would handle the all time ďgreatsĒ for winter storms.

For example- if it was Ď85 or Ď88 again... or fill in the blank on the biggest winter storms in the past... would we be in shock and awe on the certainty of what the models might have showed, or would it be a flip flop run to run like weíre accustomed to.

A lot of you youngsters donít remember the storms of the 1980s. But, then again, I donít remember some of the greats from the Ď60s or Ď70s either.
I lived in North  Bama from the time I was 7 till 18 when I moved back Nashville.  So canít say much about the late 60s to late 70s.  But the 80s were fairly good.  We relied on the Weather Channel and it was pretty decent in those days.  But as far as model consistancy I do not know as that has ever happened in the midsouth.  Too many things can go wrong and it seems like itís like threading needle with a camel hair for a system to work out like the models show.  Even the day of the expected snow, dry slots, temps not going down, etc... but it sure is awesome when that camel hair makes into the needles eye!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2019, 01:00:03 PM
surprised no word on 12z euro big hit over ne Arkansas close foot just just ne of there    most midsouth 3 to 4 inches for weekend system

Post Merge: January 14, 2019, 01:11:30 PM
EPS... says going be many sleep less night for midsouth people... next four weeks... been may year seen we seen pattern shaping up this great ::fingerscrossed:: ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2019, 01:19:38 PM
Snow squalls can be fun.

I miss that kind of strong Arctic front.  They seemed to come at us frequently, especially back in the 80's.  I remember our family getting caught in one as we drove on I-75 from London, KY to Florence, Ky.  Sun was out when we left, and was out at the end of our journey.  But in between around Lexington, we hit a very heavy squall--literally white out conditions.  The snow was so heavy coming at the car, it started to freeze on the outside of the radiator, and we had to pull over and wait for it to stop.  The interstate became impassible, and the 3 hour journey took 6 hours.  The snow only lasted about 2 hours before the sun came back out, but during that time you couldn't see 5 feet in front of you.   My parents were a nervous wreck, but I was secretly loving every minute of it.
   ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: gcbama on January 14, 2019, 01:22:28 PM
Does anybody remember when we used to get these really stout clippers come through .... I am only 32 but can can remember in the 90's ( I was hooked on weather as a kid) getting some really strong clippers that squeezed out every bit of moisture in the air....it was almost like a spring time front as far as precip amounts. It would be like really amazingly heavy snow for about 2-3 hours and then taper off rapidly but would leave you with a good 3-4 inches....or am I imagining that this used to happen?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2019, 01:24:20 PM
Does anybody remember when we used to get these really stout clippers come through .... I am only 32 but can can remember in the 90's ( I was hooked on weather as a kid) getting some really strong clippers that squeezed out every bit of moisture in the air....it was almost like a spring time front as far as precip amounts. It would be like really amazingly heavy snow for about 2-3 hours and then taper off rapidly but would leave you with a good 3-4 inches....or am I imagining that this used to happen?
seen many of them... used be common more even for us western tn... we just don't get them over here no more...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2019, 01:27:25 PM
Euro has improved significantly for the weekend system compared to this morning.  Northwest TN looking good with 2-4".  Middle TN gets some 2" amounts.  East about 1".  Southeast maybe gets a dusting. 
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2019, 01:47:26 PM
Not bad Euro 2 along 40 and up to 4 north.

Is this an arctic front or what??? Memphis goes from 62 on Friday to 9 Monday morning.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2019, 01:49:12 PM
Not bad Euro 2 along 40 and up to 4 north.

Is this an arctic front or what??? Memphis goes from 62 on Friday to 9 Monday morning.
yep... its a start for sure... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on January 14, 2019, 02:02:31 PM
Not bad Euro 2 along 40 and up to 4 north.

Is this an arctic front or what??? Memphis goes from 62 on Friday to 9 Monday morning.

I would say flash freezing will occur with this front with any water that is around on roads.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2019, 02:03:21 PM
Euro shows more than backside flurries on this run.  Actually has a band of moderate snow rates coming through the state as the cold air rushes in.  Previous 2 runs had nothing more than flurries.  Thanks to some downsloping, we could be near 60 in the foothills Saturday night, and be 22 by noon on Sunday!  Talk about an upside down flip in temperature!  That alone will be interesting to observe, but I'll take a few inches of snow to go along with it. 

Monday morning single digits are likely here.  Coldest weather since last January. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on January 14, 2019, 02:07:54 PM
Euro shows more than backside flurries on this run.  Actually has a band of moderate snow rates coming through the state as the cold air rushes in.  Previous 2 runs had nothing more than a flurries.  Thanks to some downsloping, we could be near 60 in the foothills Saturday night, and be 22 by noon on Sunday!  Talk about an upside down flip in temperature!  That alone will be interesting to observe, but I'll take a few inches of snow to go along with it.
This kind of front is where our modern forecasting really does save lives.  A famous case from 1940 was like the massive drop in temperatures we may see with this front and it killed many people through the midwest as it happened on a weekend and during hunting season.  And just like the coming weekend, that one was a long weekend as well.  It's remembered as the day the duck hunters died: http://sportingclassicsdaily.com/day-the-duck-hunters-died/. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2019, 02:13:59 PM
This kind of front is where our modern forecasting really does save lives.  A famous case from 1940 was like the massive drop in temperatures we may see with this front and it killed many people through the midwest as it happened on a weekend and during hunting season.  And just like the coming weekend, that one was a long weekend as well.  It's remembered as the day the duck hunters died: http://sportingclassicsdaily.com/day-the-duck-hunters-died/.

Wow, that's interesting.  Thanks for sharing.

And as much as we like to complain about model flip flopping, we really are blessed with modern technology and forecasting, and the amount of access the public has to what used to be reserved for only the forecasters at the National Weather Service.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: ChrisPC on January 14, 2019, 02:34:03 PM
This kind of front is where our modern forecasting really does save lives.  A famous case from 1940 was like the massive drop in temperatures we may see with this front and it killed many people through the midwest as it happened on a weekend and during hunting season.  And just like the coming weekend, that one was a long weekend as well.  It's remembered as the day the duck hunters died: http://sportingclassicsdaily.com/day-the-duck-hunters-died/.

Wow. Thatís horrific. I thought the Edmund Fitzgerald story was sad... :(
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2019, 02:40:33 PM
latest EPS run.... ::wow:: I leave it at that....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on January 14, 2019, 02:42:54 PM
been may year seen we seen pattern shaping up this great ::fingerscrossed:: ::coffee::

You know- just a quick proofread through what you type before you hit that Post button... would be great!  ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on January 14, 2019, 02:44:41 PM
You know- just a quick proofread through what you type before you hit that Post button... would be great!  ;)

Want to know what is sad? I could actually decipher what he was saying. 😂
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2019, 02:47:33 PM
You know- just a quick proofread through what you type before you hit that Post button... would be great!  ;)
keys sticking again... sorry 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on January 14, 2019, 02:58:50 PM
latest EPS run.... ::wow:: I leave it at that....
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