Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => TNWx Vault of Fame and Infamy => Topic started by: Thundersnow on April 04, 2006, 07:21:40 AM

Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 04, 2006, 07:21:40 AM
The Storm Prediction Center is indicating "severe weather likely" over much of the Southeast including Tennessee on Friday and Saturday April 7-8:

Quote
  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 AM CDT TUE APR 04 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
   
   DEEP LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT EWD
   
   FROM OH VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY/DAY 4 THROUGH SATURDAY/DAY
   5. STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD INTO
   MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE UPPER TX GULF
   COAST...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORCING AND
   SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUGGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
   LIKELY FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE IN
   THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG LATEST
   DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH RESPECT TO LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND FLOW
   ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
   SETTLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
   SUNDAY/MONDAY. NEXT POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE INDICATED BY EVENING
   GUIDANCE IS A STRONG TROUGH THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST BY
   MONDAY. HEIGHT FALLS AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
   PLAINS AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM POTENTIAL NEXT
   TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...DAYS 7/8. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IS NOT HIGH
   ENOUGH AT THAT FORECAST RANGE TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/04/2006
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 04, 2006, 01:24:15 PM
Let it roll :)

I may have to get out and chase some if this looks like a sure thing.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 04, 2006, 02:07:28 PM
Just don't eat at Jack-in-the-Box first!!!! :wink:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 04, 2006, 02:20:34 PM
Thanks servo.

I don't think I'll be making that same mistake twice.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 05, 2006, 08:03:44 AM
This keeps looking like it could get ugly for us on Friday, what do y'all think? :?:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2006, 08:41:02 AM
We're now showing up in the bullseye of the Day 3 severe weather outlook (for Friday, April 7)...

Quote
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1100.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_1100.gif)

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 AM CDT WED APR 05 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE
   MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...AND PARTS OF NERN KS
   AND NRN MO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPLEX UPPER FLOW REGIME EVOLVES OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S.
   FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE STRONG OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS
   WILL OPEN UP AND BE SHUNTED ESEWD ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEYS AS A
   STRONGER NRN STREAM TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ERN GREAT
   LAKES...AND LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. STRONG LOW
   LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
   THE DAY. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...THE
   EJECTING PLAINS LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ESEWD
   INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE MID/LOWER MS
   VALLEY...ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
   
   ...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...
   SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR ACROSS A LARGE REGION OF THE MID-SOUTH ON
   FRIDAY
AS A BELT OF STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WITH EJECTING SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS
   TO SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ORIGINATING
   ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 2 WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MS/TN
   VALLEY WITH CAPPING ACROSS THESE AREAS LIKELY TO KEEP CONVECTION
   LIMITED UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES DURING THE PERIOD OF
   INCREASING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. COMBINATION OF MODEST
   INSTABILITY...A NUMBER OF FOCUSING MECHANISMS INCLUDING SURFACE LOW
   AND FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND POTENTIALLY VERY
   STRONG SHEAR ALL POINT TOWARD A DEVELOPING...AND POSSIBLY
   SUBSTANTIAL...SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITHIN THE SLGT RISK AREA. FAST
   UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW COULD RESULT IN FAST MOVING BANDS OR
   LINES OF STORMS/SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
   PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

   
   GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES IMPORTANT
   TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED TSTMS...IT IS TOO SOON TO OUTLOOK
   AREAS WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE. LATEST INDICATIONS
   SUGGEST THAT THE TN/OH VALLEY AREAS MAY SEE MORE NUMEROUS INTENSE
   STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATER FORECASTS SHOULD
   PROVIDE BETTER DETAIL.
   
   ...ERN KS/NRN MO...
   COLD CORE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON WITH SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT...WEAKLY CAPPED...CAPE. WHILE
   SHEAR WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE WEAK...A FEW RELATIVELY
   LOW-TOPPED CELLS WITH HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE.

Even though we're currently in the "slight" risk, this is still three days out, and if current trends continue, I wouldn't be surprised if we are later upgraded to at least a moderate risk.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 05, 2006, 09:06:45 AM
Thanks for posting that TS. I was about to update the site too.

I think we'll see a PDS issued for a major outbreak of tornados in the Plains tomorrow. It would be a good storm chase event.

By Friday, I think if the models continue to trend to a sheared environment, and we can get some diurnal heating going, we could very well see another significant weather event here in TN.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 05, 2006, 09:11:40 AM
I hate it on days when my husband has to be "ENROUTE".  If he's somewhere and not having to drive or fly, I can handle it better....He'll be driving this time so maybe he can get home early enough before the Bradford Pears hit the fan....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 05, 2006, 09:27:45 AM
Tomorrow's moderate risk is sooooo expansive...And even the Graphical Hazardous Outlook on the Nashville NWS site has changed for us too for tomorrow...
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 05, 2006, 09:53:21 AM
A truly scary discussion is taking place on another met forum. There are several pro mets that hang out there and here is one of their maps:

(http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/4726/fridaythreat7dy.png)
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 05, 2006, 10:00:48 AM
Now, daggone it, Ron....You're gonna make me go to Kroger aren't you?
 :shock:

Personally....and it's just a gut, bad feeling.....I just see one of those little "High Risk" slivers coming up...I don't know what's making me feel that way.  If you look at maps of the way this system is coming through, it looks similiar to me to the April 3-4, 1974 scenario....
 :shock:

But I'm probably off my nut...I've had a rough week. :roll:   It's just a stupid feeling...
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 05, 2006, 11:30:23 AM
Sorry for the bad news servo, but I do have a question.

Do you go to Kroger every time a stressful situation arises?  :D
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 05, 2006, 11:35:20 AM
:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

Yeah...well.....it's kinda the closest store.  And I always need groceries, but it's mainly just a running joke.

And today, I'm just a little tired and couldn't think of anything else witty to say...

 :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 05, 2006, 11:37:02 AM
:D That's cool. We've got to figure out an alternative to the Snowballs though. Hmm... Doesn't KFC have a Twister or something?  :P
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 05, 2006, 11:44:04 AM
Oh...yeah....It is a Twister!!  Looks yummy..... :)

I'm hungry....

 :lol:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 05, 2006, 12:43:45 PM
Thought I'd post Jackson MS discussion to add to the chicken little fire:

A DEEP SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER ESTRN NE IN THE MORNING
AND BE STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO
BEGIN TO FILL IN BUT THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW FILLING IN WILL NOT BE
FELT OVER THE AREA. THIS IS B/C THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE
SE DURING THE DAY TWRDS THE BEST WAA WHICH IN ACTUALITY WILL HELP
LOWER THE SFC PRESSURE THROUGH THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. WITH GOOD
STHRLY FLOW IN THE LL EARLY IN THE MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS
TO DEAL WITH BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO THICK AND THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW THE AREA TO WARM UP
VERY QUICKLY AND WITH H925 TEMPS OF 19-22C AND H85 TEMPS OF 14-16C
HIGHS COULD EASILY APPROACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. THIS IS REALLY GOING TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
DEWPOINTS ALSO ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY
UPPER 60S. SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
GFS IS FORECASTING OVER 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...LI'S OF -5 TO NEAR
-7...H85 THETA E AIR OF 332...K INDEX ABV 40C...AND SIG SEVERE
PARAMETERS APPROACHING 60000. THESE VALUES ARE EVEN GREATER WITH THE
NAM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME VERY IMPRESSIVE NEAR 7 TO 8 C/KM
DUE TO THE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING THE H5 TEMP TO
COOL TO -14C.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 05, 2006, 12:57:35 PM
SNIFF...SNIFF....Wanna make that Original or Extra Crispy....(Um...Extra Crispy will be for lots of lightning)...

 :roll:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 05, 2006, 01:13:12 PM
hey servo - be looking on the WKRN blog for some links I emailed Justin on the tornados of April 16 1998. He emailed me saying he would post them sometime before the anniversary.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 05, 2006, 01:18:58 PM
COOL!!!!  I'LL BE THERE!!! 8)

Always on, y'know.... :shock:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 05, 2006, 01:43:14 PM
Latest SPC Day 2 Outlook discussion just out:

...WRN/CNTRL TN THROUGH OH VALLEY AREAS...
   
   STORMS WILL HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS THEY SPREAD
   EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED
   WITH ERN EXTENT INTO THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS
   EXPECTED ALONG THE STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM STRUCTURES
   WITHIN THE MCS. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO DAMAGING
   WIND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.


****

Looks like they've toned down the wording a bit due to the strong capping they are forecasting in models. Keep in mind this is for Thurs and Thurs evening. Friday is a whole nother ball of wax. We'll see if they still remain gung ho on the Day 3 outlook for Friday.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 05, 2006, 01:55:33 PM
You know it looks like they scooched over that Moderate risk for tomorrow closer to the TN line....

Busy busy busy....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 05, 2006, 02:41:19 PM
By tomorrow evening any convection approaching MS River into TN should be consolidated into a line MCS event. Strong winds/hail/intense lightning main concern here. Discrete supercells will be the concern on Friday with the diurnal heating and good apparent instability. Latest NAM shows ULL very close to N Mid TN Friday evening which could put the real severe wx event a little farther to our south in the warm sector.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Brandon on April 05, 2006, 04:15:00 PM
Warning to anyone living in Tennessee, The Storms on Friday are going to be very ugly. Please stay abreast of the very latest weather situations from your local weather source. It is very possible that we could again see the risk of Tornadoes. Please prepare your plans ahead of time. More information will be posted right up to and throughout the event.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 05, 2006, 04:18:38 PM
Well, at least I did get the news, my husband is driving back from OH/IN tomorrow and NOT Friday like I first thought....so that's a big relief...

Good to see you around WDB!!! :D
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Brandon on April 05, 2006, 04:29:31 PM
Quote
Good to see you around WDB!!!

Hey Thanks, Did ya survive the storms the other night. The one evening that was not very bad, I in Chapel Hill and the funnel came right through down. Awesome Show. Big Day coming on Friday.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 05, 2006, 04:49:05 PM
Wow WDB. I'm glad to know you're still alive :)  

I haven't seen you on since Winter season.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 05, 2006, 04:49:06 PM
Yeah, we did pretty good....I heard and saw the hail banging down, I heard that "roar"...the quiet, but mercifully, the funnel decided to stay up in the sky.  Nothing to show for it except some downed leaves, branches, and fatigue!

Incredible light show; hadn't heard hail like that for YEARS....

My spidey sense has been heightened all day about Friday.... :shock:   I do need to get some more batteries before Friday.  I have a radio that has the TV and weatherbands on it, but I can't pick up NOAA unless I'm outside in a clear area...and GOOD LUCK WITH THAT IN A SUPERCELL!!!!  It's great if the stations are doing 'wall-to-wall', but if they're just doing crawls across the bottom...well....

I'll spend tomorrow making our closet a little more comfy...I got a feeling we're going to be there quite a bit....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Brandon on April 05, 2006, 05:00:51 PM
Well Servocrow, over the past few years things have been worst in the Tornado Department. We have decided to go ahead and put us in a tornado shelter. If anyone else would like to check one out here is a link.
Has great comparisons of all the companies.

http://www.tornadoproject.com/safety/moreonshelters.htm
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 05, 2006, 05:18:00 PM
Thanks WDB!  I bookmarked it and am also going to give the link to my neighbor....She was talking about getting a tornado shelter because she couldn't stand being cooped up in the tiny closet with her hubby and kids....and cats and dog....
Title: Friday's Storms
Post by: Big Country on April 05, 2006, 05:58:23 PM
What is the current update on the storms expected on Friday?
Title: Re: Friday's Storms
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2006, 06:50:13 PM
Quote from: "Big Country"
What is the current update on the storms expected on Friday?

Probably not a whole lot of change at this point.  It appears that there is a potentially serious threat for severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center usually releases their first daily outlooks at around midnight.  We should have a clearer picture of what to expect by tomorrow morning.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Brandon on April 05, 2006, 10:51:15 PM
Heres what East Tennessee can expect from this system...

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE STORMS HAVE TO
POTENTIAL TO REGENERATE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KNOXVILLE.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 05:33:45 AM
For April 7th:

Quote
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0800.gif)

Quote
SPC AC 060618
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0118 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
   ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...MUCH OF TENNESSEE...
   MISSISSIPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHERN GEORGIA...EXTREME
   SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   LA/AR/MO...ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...EAST TO WV...WRN
   VA/NC/SC...AND NWRN GA..AND THE FL PANHANDLE...
   
   ...WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE
   APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
   TN VALLEY DURING FRIDAY....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE SPRINGTIME SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   INTO DAY 2/FRIDAY AS POTENT TROUGH AND BELT OF 80-90KT MID LEVEL
   FLOW SPREAD EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS AND TN VALLEYS. THE
   FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE
   PLAINS...AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
   TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A BROAD RIDGE WILL COVER THE MUCH OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
   THE WEST COAST.
   
   NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE WILL INDUCE THE LOW
   OVER THE PLAINS TO OPEN UP AND REDEVELOP EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE MS
   VALLEY AS A FRONTAL WAVE/LOW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE LARGER SCALE
   POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC
   ZONE...SPREAD SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND ANOTHER
   FRONTAL SURFACE WAVE TRACKS EWD FROM OH TO NEW ENGLAND. GREAT LAKES
   AND TN VALLEY SHORT WAVES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE BY SATURDAY WITH
   RESULTING/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
   
   ...ERN AR/LA ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...
   GFS AND NAM APPEAR QUITE CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
   THAT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
   FRIDAY. GFS HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT TREND TOWARD A SLOWER AND MORE
   AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AND ALLOWS FOR
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING.
   
   GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT A POSSIBLE MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BE
   WHAT REMAINS FROM PLAINS CONVECTION DURING DAY 1...SPREADING EAST
   AND BEING SUSTAINED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
   JET. LOW LEVEL SSWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL MORNING
   CONVECTION WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER THETAE AIRMASS FROM THE GULF INLAND
   ACROSS LA/ERN AR/MS/AL AND TN. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT AT
   LEAST MID 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THESE AREAS BENEATH A
   PLUME OF INCREASING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
   FLOW.
   
   FORCING ALONG POSSIBLE RESIDUAL MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN
   VALLEY...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   EJECTING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE ACROSS AR/LA...WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO STORM INITIATION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WILL
   FUEL ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR AND FORCING CONTINUE TO
   STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
   VERY STRONG...PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL...DEEP LAYER FLOW TO RESULT
   IN A NUMBER OF FAST MOVING BANDS...OR LINES...OF STORMS. SUPERCELLS
   APPEAR LIKELY AND ACTIVITY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...AND TRACKING
   NEAR/ALONG ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...COULD POSE A GREATER
   RISK OF TORNADOES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
   POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF STRONGER FAST-MOVING TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.
   SPECIFIC SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE
   INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
   EXPECT AIRMASS TO RECOVER ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF
   MORNING CONVECTION...OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
   POSSIBILITY OF MODEST INSTABILITY FORMING AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING
   COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG NRN STREAM
   TROUGH. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION MOVES INTO THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS FROM IL TO OH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
   TO BE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ...ERN PLAINS/MO...
   A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH HAIL COULD DEVELOP NEAR/WITHIN THE MID
   LEVEL COLD POOL AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT STORM
   INTENSITY/DURATION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/06/2006
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 05:49:10 AM
Forgot to add the Probabalistic Forecast Graphic:

Quote
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0800_any.gif)
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2006, 06:06:34 AM
I think we're in trouble.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2006, 06:10:37 AM
Nashville NWS just put this statement out....

Quote
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
 530 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006
 
 WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
 FRIDAY NIGHT IT IS PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO TAKE A FEW MINUTES
 TO REVIEW SOME TORNADO SAFETY RULES. IF A TORNADO IS OBSERVED
 OR A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA...
 
 ...AND YOU ARE IN A HOME OR BUILDING...MOVE TO A PRE DESIGNATED
 SHELTER...SUCH AS A BASEMENT.
 
 ...IF AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS NOT AVAILABLE...MOVE TO AN
 INTERIOR ROOM...HALLWAY...OR BATHROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
 THE BUILDING.
 
 ...MOBILE HOMES...EVEN IF TIED DOWN...OFFER LITTLE PROTECTION FROM
 THE FORCE OF A TORNADO. ABANDON THEM...AND GO TO A PRE DESIGNATED
 SHELTER.
 
 ...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
 
 ...DO NOT TRY AND OUTRUN A TORNADO IN YOUR CAR. LEAVE YOUR
 AUTOMOBILE...AND SEEK STURDY SHELTER.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2006, 06:12:55 AM
Quote
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
 520 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006
 
 TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061630-
 BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
 DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
 JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
 PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
 VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
 520 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006
 
 ...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
    ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
 
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP TODAY AND FRIDAY IN MIDDLE
 TENNESSEE...AS ANOTHER SPRING STORM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
 AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND HEADS TOWARD TENNESSEE. SOUTHERLY
 WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...AND SPREAD WARM...MOIST...AIR NORTHWARD
 FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
 SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.
 
 ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUMBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID STATE
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
 LOW. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY...AS
 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES OUT OF ARKANSAS. THE ATMOSPHERE
 WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND CREATE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
 THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND
 ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
 INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE MID
 STATE.
 
 IT IS ALWAYS A GOOD IDEA TO PLAN AHEAD FOR BAD WEATHER. THEREFORE...
 YOU SHOULD...CHECK TO BE SURE YOU HAVE FRESH BATTERIES IN YOUR
 WEATHER RADIO...AS WELL AT LEAST ONE FLASHLIGHT. THAT WAY YOU CAN
 STILL RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS...AND LIGHT YOUR WAY TO SHELTER...
 EVEN IF THE POWER GOES OUT.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 06:13:29 AM
The system looked ugly ever since it was off the California coast... :shock:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2006, 06:18:10 AM
Part of the text out of Memphis this morning...

Quote
ON FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY
 OVER MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH. THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH HAS BEEN PLACED
 UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
 ALONG WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
 MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
 FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST
 OF THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LINES OF SUPERCELL
 THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH A FEW DISCREET SUPERCELL STORMS TO RACE
 EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS
 WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
 WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
 POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 06:22:06 AM
LINES OF SUPERCELLS!!!!!  LINES??????!!!!!!!!
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 07:14:42 AM
Yeah servo it's getting to be even more serious. The GFS started dragging out the ULL and trough so the atmosphere in the warm sector (us) has more time to destabilize. Also as I noted yesterday we will be very close to the ULL passing just to our North. SPC expects areas close to ULL to be the very highest risk for tornadic supercells. Recent knowledge also means that old outflow boundaries from Plains storms (like I noted yesterday) will be scattered across TN during the morning hours to kick off convection and those old outflow boundaries are now known to increase the severity and increase track length of tornados (see 1998 Lawrence Co F5 Report NWS OHX).

Everyone should be really watching out tomorrow. I plan to try to chase if it really hits the fan around here. Anybody else up for it? I need another camcorder - mine busted around Christmas :(
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 07:22:49 AM
Well, I'll be in full Mom "Calm" Mode tomorrow for my boys....grumbling at my hubby who thinks he's invincible.... :wink:

I don't have a camcorder or I'd have you borrow mine... :cry:


We do need to set up a little acronym forum...Sometimes the SPC/NWS shortcuts get me a little muddled...Things like that may help new members too.

For example:

NWS = National Weather Service
SPC = Storm Prediction Center
POP = Percent of Precipitation
ULL = ??????????

It's the ones inside the body of their discussions that get me confused.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 07:37:17 AM
ULL= Upper Level Low
and PoP= Probability of Precipitation

HERE'S A LINK TO ACRONYMS THE NWS USES. ALL OF THEM!

http://www.srh.weather.gov/jetstream/append/acronyms_a.htm
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2006, 07:49:02 AM
This weather pattern as it is being described for our area tomorrow reminds me very much of April 16, 1998.  The SPC has already upgraded parts of Kansas and Nebraska to a high risk today.  On another message board, some are of the view that we can expect part of the moderate risk to be upgraded to high by tomorrow.  

The SPC has already hinted at that possibility as well in their Day 2 outlook...

Quote
SPECIFIC SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 07:52:42 AM
THANKS RON!!!!!!!  THAT'S WHAT I NEEDED!!!!

And, Thundersnow....I was wondering at what point today, this particular "high risk" info would be revealed...Sometimes the gut doesn't lie....(eegad startin' to sound like Katie Couric...ick!  :roll: )
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2006, 07:59:51 AM
I doubt they'll display a high risk until tomorrow's Day 1 outlook.  They just now (in the last hour or so) upgraded part of today's moderate risk to high.  Part of that is just the uncertainty in the forecast until the event is imminent.

They did indicate that a storm complex may move across the TN valley by early tomorrow morning... as left over from today's activity... that ought to leave some outflow boundaries in place for activity later in the day tomorrow.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 08:08:27 AM
Yeah, you're right...I'm jumpin' the gun... :shock:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Eric from nashvillewx on April 06, 2006, 08:09:07 AM
Ron, I would love to ride shotgun but my boss may have something to say about that.  I have always wanted to go on a chase and it sounds nore and more like tomorrow will be a heckuva day to do it.  Enjoy yourself and BE SAFE!!
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 08:09:27 AM
Daffy always did have a fear of shotguns ;)
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Eric from nashvillewx on April 06, 2006, 08:18:43 AM
Straight out of the SPC for the Plains today.  Something wicked this way comes...

...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   TORNADOES IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          EASTERN KANSAS
          FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
          SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
   
   SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN MISSOURI INTO
   EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
   
   A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
   MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
   THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
   WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  TO THE
   SOUTH OF THE LOW...A DRYLINE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO
   THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
   
   GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE HAS BEEN ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
   ON STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...
   REACHING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH BY THIS EVENING.
   THE STRONG FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
   CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
   
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN TWO MAIN AREAS.  
   ONE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL
   NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 100-400 PM CDT.  THESE STORMS
   WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA AND
   NORTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.  THE
   HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND
   NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...NAMELY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
   KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
   
   A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
   EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
   100-300PM.  THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
   THE DRYLINE...AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE STRONG JET STREAM ALOFT.
   THESE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS AS
   THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF
   ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING.  STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH.  BUT...THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
   WEATHER SYSTEMS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.
   
   THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
   THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
   TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 08:23:52 AM
Ron...."You're despicable!"   :wink:

Quote
(http://www.animationusa.com/picts/wbpict/2_Beakhead.jpg)
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 08:39:39 AM
Eric, you're right....'WICKED' is a good word!!!

((shiver))
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Eric from nashvillewx on April 06, 2006, 09:46:12 AM
Anybody know of any news channel web sites that broadcast online weather?
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Eric from nashvillewx on April 06, 2006, 09:46:38 AM
Sorry forgot to add "from the Plains"
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 10:01:08 AM
I found this link from Kansas City which lists all the local media outlets:

http://www.kcweblinks.com/directory.php?c=95

Mike Siedel from The Weather Channel is doing live reporting from there today.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 10:09:15 AM
Hey guys, I think you're gonna want to be looking more in the S IA, MO, S IL areas for tornados today. I've been looking over some different model info and think that will be a problem today for tornados. OK, AR will see some too, but it could be a bigger problem a little north. Expect severe convection to start firing around 1-2pm CDT.

Tomorrow is getting scarier and scarier. Current thinking is that Nashville/Mid TN will be in the bullseye of a significant severe weather outbreak with 20+ tornados of F2+ intensity. (My opinion, and not an official forecast). This all could be a huge flop though if we don't get the heating we need if the skies stay mo cloudy tomorrow, but looks like a good bet right now.

Stay tuned to NWS and local media for information... and stay tuned to Tennessee Weather Zone Forum for plenty of discussion and stay one step ahead!
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 10:24:50 AM
I was just looking at the visible satellite and it looks like our cloud cover will start breaking up ..We're getting a few breaks in the clouds now.

 
Quote
(http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/ECVS.JPG)
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Eric from nashvillewx on April 06, 2006, 10:32:32 AM
Thanks for the link Ron.  Found a blog on Kansas City's local Fox affiliate.  He seems to echo what you think, that we will be smack dab in the middle of the rough stuff.  Here is the link if anyone is interested:

http://www.wdaftv4.com/almanac/blog/apr06blog.htm
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 10:33:27 AM
Yeah servo. Trigger time for storms out W of us is in a few hours.

Tomorrow is when we should be especially concerned with heating for TN. The dynamics don't really come into our area until late tonight/tomorrow.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 10:46:30 AM
Eric, that's a good blog to bounce back and forth to as the day progresses.

And Ron....I'm wondering if the "disclaimer" you have should be put on the header of the Forum.... :scratch

I've been really watching myself at Nashvillewx because I don't want anyone to think I'm forecasting or anything....People can take words written down as the Gospel truth...and well....You know people.... :shock:

(....oooh we've got more emoticons too..... :\O/: )
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Eric from nashvillewx on April 06, 2006, 11:00:37 AM
Servo, who would've thunk that you would have a touch of "devil" in ya!! :twisted:

 :ROFL
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 11:05:06 AM
:damnfunny

"We all go a little mad sometimes..."

-Norman Bates
Title: Storms
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on April 06, 2006, 12:01:38 PM
I was a scared and tearful little boy when April 16, 1998 happened.  That morning on the radio I heard the following words: "You need to stay home!"  And I wish I had.  Tomorrow, it seems to me that will be the case.  I surely don't think I'm going anywhere tomorrow, especially tomorrow afternoon and evening.  I'll go to the store and get some egg rolls and some pizza for weather-watching and some chocolate for relaxation (it does help me to relax, though I don't know why).  I shall advise that you not go anywhere tomorrow evening.  I'm not going to have access to the computer, however; any updates probably won't occur until Monday.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Eric from nashvillewx on April 06, 2006, 12:35:52 PM
NWS just issued a high risk for southern middle TN.  I am sure Ron will be in with more details shortly.  Nashvillewx.com has the info.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Eric from nashvillewx on April 06, 2006, 12:37:06 PM
Sorry, high risk advisement came from SPC not NWS (my bad)!! :roll:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2006, 12:57:23 PM
:shock:  :shock:  :shock:

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif)

I didn't expect the high risk to go up until tomorrow's Day 1.  They're serious about this.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2006, 12:59:14 PM
SPC:

A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT SEWD
   INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY
   FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS
   EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NRN AL...NE MS...SCNTRL
   TN AND FAR NW GA.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 01:16:53 PM
Too close for comfort for me!!!

 :(
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 01:31:59 PM
Crap. I had to run some errands for work, and now all my forecasting has come true!  ;)

A few people weren't on board when I said we could see a HIGH RISK for TN in the SWODY2. It is very rare for them to issue it in the DY2 and just shows how serious this situation is.

I want to remind folks that the High Risk is not a probability term like % chance of precip. It is an outbreak term meaning the potential exists for 20 or more tornadoes, some possibly F2 or stronger, or an extreme derecho potentially causing widespread wind damage and higher end wind gusts (80+ mph) that may result in structural damage. It's an extreme situation.

PLEASE take this seriously and have a PLAN NOW! Don't wait until the Warnings are issued. If you don't have a plan for your family, it's too late then.

I'll catch up real quick and be back with some details.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 01:34:59 PM
I'm thinkin' I was on board with this one.....

 :wink:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2006, 01:45:15 PM
My cousin just IM'd me from Kingston Springs (Cheatham County) saying that the temperature has risen to 81 degrees there and that it feels very muggy.  That's quite a tempearture rise... evidence of the warm front and thus the warm sector moving in.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 01:47:45 PM
When I was out getting batteries just now, the digital temp at the gas station showed 78 degrees...and the sky is very strange...There is cloud cover, but you can see and feel the brightness of the sun.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 01:55:54 PM
The warm front did pass this morning. We are already in the warm sector. The dewpoints are rising quickly due to WAA (warm air advection) from the GoM.  Tomorrow SPC is saying they see us without much cloud cover which as I said earlier this would all hinge on. Once things warm up to a certain point, and the CAP breaks its all downhill. That will set the stage for pop up supercells (discrete). The SPC does have the highest risk area just S of BNA into AL and MS. I think this is from looking at the models for STP (strong tornado parameter) which I pointed out earlier are highest in that area (8-10 which is as high as it goes). The rest of TN isn't any better with STP of 6-8. STP is out with the trash if the storms are linear as MCS, but if they stay discrete as pop up supercells, we will see lots of tornados.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Eric from nashvillewx on April 06, 2006, 02:06:28 PM
Ron, what does MCS stand for?
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2006, 02:06:28 PM
With the warm sector in place, this will probably be one of those nights where it will feel unnaturally balmy for this time of year... the muggy calm before the storm.  We'll be able to feel it in the air.  :shock:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 02:16:32 PM
And the wind is picking up too....Well, do what the lady says...

Quote
(http://funface.com/bette_bg.jpg)

"Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy night!"

Or in our case, DAY into NIGHT....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Eric from nashvillewx on April 06, 2006, 02:20:06 PM
Here is a link to a NEXRAD radar site in Kansas inside the tornado watch box.  I think it is from Shepards AFB?  Anyway, it is point and click zoom and very cool

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=ICT&type=N0R
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 02:37:06 PM
Quote from: "Eric from nashvillewx"
Ron, what does MCS stand for?

MCS= Mesoscale Convective System

A complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms, and normally persists for several hours or more. MCSs may be round or linear in shape, and include systems such as tropical cyclones, squall lines, and MCCs (among others). MCS often is used to describe a cluster of thunderstorms that does not satisfy the size, shape, or duration criteria of an MCC.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: mark in lavergne on April 06, 2006, 02:41:57 PM
well guys looks like more lovely storms for tomorrow night hopefully before I go into work at 11pm...was at work sunday when the storms came through and boy did the wind blow and the building shake alot... :shock: .....love the pic servocrow ........i find tornados interesting as long as they dont cause damage or death  :lol:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 02:43:21 PM
I hate cluttering up the discussion with text from NWS but MEMPHIS just out with another HWO:
Quote
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 6 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
WARM...HUMID... AND UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION...WIND FIELDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS EVENING. AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST. THESE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A BROKEN SQUALL-
LINE...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM FORREST CITY ARKANSAS...TO DYERSBURG
TENNESSEE...TO UNION CITY TENNESSEE. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 2 AM
FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY OVER
MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH. A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN EFFECT
FOR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE.
THIS AREA IS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SAVANNAH TENNESSEE TO
CHARLESTON MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA AND STRETCHING SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM FORREST CITY ARKANSAS...TO DYERSBURG TENNESSEE...TO
PARIS TENNESSEE. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK IN EFFECT FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA WHICH
INCLUDES NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

 VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS AND A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LINES OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A
FEW DISCREET SUPERCELL STORMS TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THESE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE
INTO A LINE OR COUPLE OF LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING.

PREPARE NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND KNOW WHAT
TO DO IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 02:49:08 PM
You think it's getting windy here?

Try Texas panhandle: Amarillo, wind west at 41, gusts to 48 mph. Lubbock, wind west at 38, gusts to 55 mph... Lefors, west at 46, gusts to 60 mph...
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 03:28:35 PM
They're having a dust storm right now in Wichita Falls, TX at Sheppard AFB.

1952UTC 3:52PM EDT
Winds from the WSW (250 degrees) at 38 MPH (33 KT) gusting to 51 MPH (44 KT)  Weather: Blowing widespread dust
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 03:41:18 PM
TVS on doppler in OK at this time. No associated Torn Warn yet.

Supercells continue to fire along dryline from OK north into KS.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 03:59:06 PM
The first one of the day:

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 341 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES WEST OF
  HOMINY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...HOMINY...
  WYNONA...PAWHUSKA...BARNSDALL...OKESA...BIGH EART AND HULAH.
Title: Fridays outbreak
Post by: Mississipi Storm Guy on April 06, 2006, 04:02:26 PM
Ok folks, I'm new to the forum, I got this link from another web-site I visit often.  I live in NW Ms and have been a weather watcher/nut for some time.  I missed my calling 20 years ago when I went to college.

Anyway, I've been browsing the site for a few weeks and enjoy it a lot.  I appreciate the insight some of you have been offering on the weather tomorrow.  I've been monitoring the SPC site for the last several days as well as local NWS site such as Memphis, Nashville, Little Rock &  Jackson.  As mentioned by others, this is really scary.  

I told my wife my son was not going to school tomorrow and that we would be going to spend the day at my dads ( he has a storm/safe room in his house).  She thinks I'm off my rocker, but I told her that their safety was more important to be than her opinion of my state of mind.  

Looking forward to spending more time on here with you folks.  Saty safe tomorrow folks.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 04:07:32 PM
Thanks for stopping by MS Storm Guy.

Make sure you post any storm reports when you can tomorrow. You're one of the smart ones that listens preparing now. Stay safe.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 04:13:24 PM
SPC EXTENDS HIGH RISK FOR TODAY.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS/OZARKS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LOW/TROUGH OVER
   THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A DRY SLOT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS ERN KS AND
   CNTRL OK. A 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY EJECTING NEWD OUT OF
   THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SPREADING STRONG DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE CNTRL
   AND SRN PLAINS. THE STRONG LIFT COMBINED WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING CAP IS RESULTING IN RAPID STORM INITIATION
   FROM CNTRL KS EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS ECNTRL OK. REGIONAL PROFILERS
   CURRENTLY SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH ARE BEING
   ENHANCED BY THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
   AS A RESULT...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   WITH LARGE HAIL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   SUPERCELLS. AS THE STORMS TRACK NEWD INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   AND GREATER INSTABILITY...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE. THE BEST
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST OVER NE OK...NW
   AR...ERN KS AND FAR WRN MO WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
   BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY
   LATE THIS EVENING...STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN FAR NE TX...SE OK
   AND SW AR BUT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS DUE TO WEAKER
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THAT AREA.
   
   AS THE DRY SLOT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
   MOVE EWD ACROSS MO AND AR. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT DUE TO THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR AND FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD
   ALLOW THE THREAT TO BECOME MARGINAL BY LATE TONIGHT.
   
   ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
   STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING ACROSS FAR NRN KS ALONG THE LEADING
   EDGE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
   ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS SRN NEB WITH STORM COVERAGE
   INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ACROSS NE KS...ERN NEB AND WRN IA WITH
   MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS SERN SD. AS THE
   TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE AND LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN FURTHER WHICH COMBINED WITH
   THE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS
   AND SHOULD BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES F IN SOME PLACES. A FEW TORNADOES WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS BECOME AFFECTED BY A STRENGTHENING
   LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE MCS
   THIS EVENING ACROSS SD...ERN NEB...SRN MN AND IA WHICH SEEMS
   REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING EWD
   AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE AND DEVELOP NEWD INTO
   THE UPPER MIDWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   GRADUALLY BECOME MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 04:15:35 PM
TORNADOS DROPPING RIGHT NOW IN OK

Tornados on ground confirmed

LIVE ON TV

www.kfor.com
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 06, 2006, 04:34:42 PM
It was creepy just watching that.....things to come...
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Chris H on April 06, 2006, 04:37:27 PM
I work on West End so I'll try to get some pictures from the top floor of my building tomorrow if anything interesting happens.

Watching the KFOR live feed now.. waiting for a weather break-in.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 04:44:54 PM
Someone keep me updated on the KFOR feed. I'm at work still and my firewall won't let me see the vid.

Thanks.

4 Torn reports so far from SPC in KS.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2006, 04:57:09 PM
A PDS Tornado Watch (Particularly Dangerous Situation) issued for neighboring Arkansas:

Quote
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0157_radar.gif)
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 157
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   440 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 440 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
   FORT SMITH ARKANSAS TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BATESVILLE
   ARKANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 153. WATCH NUMBER 153 WILL NOT BE IN
   EFFECT AFTER 440 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 154...WW 155...WW 156...
   
   DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS NOW DEVELOPING IN FAR ERN
   OK/WRN AR EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
   LATE TONIGHT AS CIN IS ELIMINATED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SHEAR
   PROFILES...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
   N CNTRL AR...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW WILL ENHANCE TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
   
   

Check out those supercells lining up from Oklahoma up into Kansas.  :shock:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 05:01:18 PM
Wicked huh TS. Looks like a string of pearls!

Unbelieveable how they're firing right on the dry line and the CAP is breaking all at once.

The outflow boundaries the SPC is mentioning as source for backing winds locally is EXACTLY what I was referring to happening here when everyone was downplaying the tornado threat due to forecasted unidirectional winds.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: PC on April 06, 2006, 05:50:10 PM
Ya know.... if an MCS moves through mid TN around noon tomorrow the severe threat will be minimalized due to the ATM being more stable.  But, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 07:06:33 PM
Yep the setup could be totally trashed by any one of a number of factors including longlasting cloud cover debris from tonight's storms or MCS forming. It's never 100% until it happens so we'll just have to wait and see, but all of the ingredients are there for a major outbreak.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 08:17:26 PM
LOL. I was just banned from talkweather forum.

I really have no idea why.

 :cry:

Yeah, I'm really shedding tears over it

 :DIE:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: mark in lavergne on April 06, 2006, 08:25:16 PM
well it is so muggy and still so nice outside...I feel that tomorrow will change alot.... :\O/:    seems the weather is now bad in northwest arkansas....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 08:30:41 PM
SPC just updated their SWODY1 and really shrunk their High Risk for the remainder of today. They're expecting all the action to be pretty much over for tonight in the next 2-3 hrs.

We'll see what they put out for us tomorrow. Not sure if the High Risk will stay up or as large of an area as today's SWODY2 was. I think they kinda busted today's High Risk. There have been several tornados though, just not an outbreak big enough to warrant a High Risk designation.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Anonymous on April 06, 2006, 08:36:38 PM
Hi all.  My first high risk event since I moved here in Feb 2004.   I'm not sure how excited I am about it though.

A couple of weeks ago I was complaining about the possibility of a boring Spring.  Now I'm feeling like I may be getting more than I asked for.   :shock:

Ron, did you get a message on TW about your account being suspended?  They're having bigtime problems over there with their new provider it seems so everyone might be getting that.   What a convenient time for a Southeast weather forum to have issues!    Anyway, it's looking SPIFFY here!

I think I'll stick around this forum for a while as this event starts to unfold.  I'll be at work in Giles county tomorrow but I may leave early if things start before quitting time (4:30).  Then I'll be at my basementless/shelterless home in Lawrence county, prepared to bolt out of the path of any tornadic supercell that I may be in the path of.  I'll be glad to post my obs. here, assuming I have power.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2006, 08:38:09 PM
Ron,

Did you get "This Account Has Been Suspended"?

That's what I got.  So, it's not just you.  They must be having problems.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 06, 2006, 08:38:51 PM
Quote from: "Anonymous"
Hi all.  My first high risk event since I moved here in Feb 2004.   I'm not sure how excited I am about it though.

A couple of weeks ago I was complaining about the possibility of a boring Spring.  Now I'm feeling like I may be getting more than I asked for.   :shock:

Ron, did you get a message on TW about your account being suspended?  They're having bigtime problems over there with their new provider it seems so everyone might be getting that.   What a convenient time for a Southeast weather forum to have issues!    Anyway, it's looking SPIFFY here!

I think I'll stick around this forum for a while as this event starts to unfold.  I'll be at work in Giles county tomorrow but I may leave early if things start before quitting time (4:30).  Then I'll be at my basementless/shelterless home in Lawrence county, prepared to bolt out of the path of any tornadic supercell that I may be in the path of.  I'll be glad to post my obs. here, assuming I have power.

Hey that was me posting the above.  I didn't know I could post as a 'guest'.  :lol:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Brandon on April 06, 2006, 09:52:28 PM
Quote
LOL. I was just banned from talkweather forum.

I really have no idea why.

 

Yeah, I'm really shedding tears over it

Dont worry Ron I was banned too! Guess they are kinda mad at us.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 06, 2006, 09:59:32 PM
WHOAAAA

CHECK OUT THE CAPES THE MODELS ARE SHOWING!!!!!!!!11!!

NASHVILLE AND MID TN MAY BE IN FOR IT-

(http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-852-1144377972.gif)
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Brandon on April 06, 2006, 10:05:45 PM
In the event of weather closings tomorrow, please post those in the selected Tennessee Regions under school closings. I am not sure what school officials will do about this severe weather outbreak so just stayed tuned.

                               Tennessee Weather Zone Staff
[/b]
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 06:03:05 AM
I'll keep an eye on closings the best I can.  I can't imagine that officials would want buses out and about late this afternoon.  I have a site bookmarked, plus I have two of my own....Fortunately, they are car riders, but even I don't want to be in the car line during a storm...
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 06:20:19 AM
It's ALREADY 68 degrees!!!!!!!

 :shock:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 06:56:39 AM
SPC has just southern TN border in High Risk today.

Several things have not come together like previous model runs were showing. The ULL was forecast to open up which would translate it quickly to the East. Producing major instability. The low remains a closed low. Jet dynamics - esp 850 LLJ is not what it was supposed to be.

Doesn't look like we'll see the major outbreak from where I'm sitting. Yeah, expect a few tornados, some possibly long track and violent, and a lot of wind/hail reports but no Apr 1998 and definitely no 1974 analog.

THIS DOES NOT MEAN TO TAKE THE SITUATION ANY LIGHTER. It is still a serious situation and you should stay abreast of the situation this afternoon and tonight with the NWS and local media.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 07:26:40 AM
For you folks that also frequent WKRN 2's Weather Blog here is a question I emailed them last night regarding their Predictor graphical forecast model they showed on the 10 pm newscast:

I think your predictor product has really done a disservice with this upcoming severe weather event. It showed a single stripe of orange in extreme S TN and N AL/MS.

The SPC as well as every other official forecast I have seen is stating we will see discrete supercells in TN AL MS, not MCS linear type storms. The CAPE, EHI, helicities SWEAT and STP all point to conditions being very favorable anywhere the convection pops up in this area.  Is this not correct thinking? Why show a product that is not probable to be accurate with this event? Just curious. You know I'm a fan of 2 Weather, but inquiring minds....

Ron Jarrell

And here is the answer I received this morning from Jeff Ray:

Predictor was showing the high QPF zone; it never seems to point the cell tracks. All parameters point toward severe weather but OHX is backing off the supercell threat for most of middle Tennessee save for the southern counties (read their Special Weather Statement). I showed Predictor a few times in the 5am show; but like thought it mis-represented the risk areas and didnít use it in the 6am block. Iím trying to get our  Predictor model (the BAMS run out of Asheville, NC) to start creating a Storm Risk contour based on CAPE/CIN, the plan and simple duo of K/Li and 0-5km Helicity.

Jeff Ray

WKRN 2 Meteorologist
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 07:31:47 AM
And he didn't show Predictor in the 6 AM block...The one the Newschannel % uses that is similiar to Predictor did the same thing last night...

I guess it's the product...

Interesting...

Jeff sure wasn't playing down the severity this morning...he was pretty amusing about people calling him wanting to know when things would start happening at "their house"

Gotta run....school time!
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 07:41:55 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif)

The SPC has expanded the moderate risk slightly northward compared to yesterday.  Yesterday, the northern edge of the moderate risk followed the TN/KY line.  Now, it covers much of western KY.  Based on what happened last night... I was expecting the high risk to be trimmed back some... but, it doesn't look like they have decreased it at all... just moved it slightly to the west/northwest of where it was in the Day 2 outlook yesterday.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 07:45:56 AM
...LA/MS/TN/AL/GA...
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON IN LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS. THESE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN AL AND
MIDDLE TN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THIS REGION INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES /EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS AND 3KM SRH VALUES OF 250-400 M2/S2/. ASSUMING
MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THIS REGION AHEAD OF
CONVECTION...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ALSO APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES
/MLCAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...MINIMAL CAP...AND LCL HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW 1KM/.
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL.
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWEST GA AND EASTERN TN BY
LATE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 07:55:45 AM
Yep... SPC still being very bullish with this thing:

   ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 07:58:08 AM
Memphis definitely isn't taking this lightly...

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
 406 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006
 
 .SHORT TERM...
 
 ...DANGEROUS...POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING...TORNADO OUTBREAK
 FORECAST FOR THE MID-SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...


 :shock:  :?
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 08:07:40 AM
Talkweather is back up, btw.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: c_phillips on April 07, 2006, 08:10:41 AM
Hello everyone, this is my first post.  Ive been viewing this site for about 2 months and decided to join. Great info you are all giving.  

CT_yankee im from lawrence county too. I live in loretto, so i guess we're kinda neighbors.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 08:24:02 AM
Welcome to the forum c_phillips. Glad to have you.

The more eyes and ears that post the better! We'll be expecting storm reports from everyone later today and tonight!
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 09:05:57 AM
The first warnings of the day have been issued in the state.  Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued for Shelby and Fayette Counties in southwestern TN for a cell that moved northeast out of MS.

Quote
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
 900 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006
 
 TNC047-071430-
 /O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-060407T1430Z/
 FAYETTE TN-
 900 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006
 
 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT
 FOR FAYETTE COUNTY...
 
 AT 857 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
 THUNDERSTORM IN HICKORY WITHE PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
 LOCATED NEAR OAKLAND...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTH OF
 COLLIERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
 
 OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
 WILLISTON AND SOMERVILLE.

Moving northeast at 65 mph.  That's really trucking.  :shock:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 07, 2006, 09:13:23 AM
Quote from: "servocrow"
I'll keep an eye on closings the best I can.  I can't imagine that officials would want buses out and about late this afternoon.  I have a site bookmarked, plus I have two of my own....Fortunately, they are car riders, but even I don't want to be in the car line during a storm...

I offically closed school for my son today.  I didn't want to take a chance with any storm popping up quickly and his school being on lock-down and I not be able to get to him.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 09:13:40 AM
Looking at the radar on TWC, I sure wouldn't want to be driving on I-40 out of Memphis right now!!!!
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 09:15:08 AM
Uh oh... Mesoscale Discussion.  :shock:

...the infamous red scriggly line.

Quote
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0453.gif)

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0907 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AR...WRN TN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN
   MS...SERN MO...WRN KY AND SRN IL...SWRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071407Z - 071600Z
   
   PARTS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THREAT FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG
   TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
   AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS
   AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A LONE ELEVATED STORM CONTINUES ACROSS WRN TN.
   THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION ALONG A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS OTHER
   CLOUDS ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE THICKER STRATUS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A
   MORE CONVECTIVE CHARACTER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOW TO MID 60S HAS SPREAD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN PARTS
   OF THE TN VALLEY. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOW STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES UPSTREAM THAT WILL LIKELY ADVECT EWD DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT.
   MORNING ACARS AND RAOB DATA ALSO INDICATE A WEAK CAP REMAINING AND
   SUGGEST ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IS NEEDED FOR STORMS TO
   BECOME SURFACE BASED. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT MOVING
   INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT WITH AN AXIS OF DEEPER
   MOISTURE FROM MS NWD THROUGH ERN AR...WRN TN...SERN MO AND WRN KY.
   ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
   THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE CAP WEAKENS
   AND AS A VORT MAX PIVOTS SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE NATURE
   OF THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/07/2006
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 09:34:06 AM
uh-oh......

 :shock:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 09:45:14 AM
You know, when you look at the visible satellite of that low, it looks like a backwards hurricane...even has an "eye"

If you go here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/satmain.htm

and click on the sector you want, you can see it pretty good.  I've kept a separate window open on my computer all morning...it updates too.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 09:54:32 AM
Interesting, servocrow.  Thanks.

If you look at the loop, you can see how rapidly that cell in southwestern TN developed... there was nothing, and then just south of Memphis... BAM!

Shows how unstable and explosive the environment is.  Wait till we get a little surface heating into the mix.  :shock:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 09:56:45 AM
Gibson, Crockett, and Madison Counties in West TN are all under SVR warnings now.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 10:00:38 AM
Hey all. This early cell popping up is cause for great alarm. Especially as it moves north. The outflow boundaries these early storms create are going to certainly increase the possibility of backing winds and enhance tornado development later today for convection that fires along or encounters these boundaries.

It's going to be an interesting day.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 10:06:03 AM
I don't know if it happened this early yesterday, did it Ron???  It seemed the T-storm cells got started a few hours later...You can even see that cell on the visible sat. image I mentioned.  Wicked...
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 07, 2006, 10:11:59 AM
Shelby County Scholols in SW Tn are closing early.  Parents have been told they can pick up their kids at any time.  All buses will be running 3 hours early.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 10:16:27 AM
Yeah, I know I'm a little late with this, but SPC appears to be shifting their worries increasingly into the Nashville/Mid TN area. I wouldn't be surprised if we are put back under high risk in a few hours.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0907 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AR...WRN TN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN
   MS...SERN MO...WRN KY AND SRN IL...SWRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071407Z - 071600Z
   
   PARTS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THREAT FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG
   TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
   AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS
   AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A LONE ELEVATED STORM CONTINUES ACROSS WRN TN.
   THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION ALONG A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS OTHER
   CLOUDS ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE THICKER STRATUS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A
   MORE CONVECTIVE CHARACTER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOW TO MID 60S HAS SPREAD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN PARTS
   OF THE TN VALLEY. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOW STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES UPSTREAM THAT WILL LIKELY ADVECT EWD DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT.
   MORNING ACARS AND RAOB DATA ALSO INDICATE A WEAK CAP REMAINING AND
   SUGGEST ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IS NEEDED FOR STORMS TO
   BECOME SURFACE BASED. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT MOVING
   INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT WITH AN AXIS OF DEEPER
   MOISTURE FROM MS NWD THROUGH ERN AR...WRN TN...SERN MO AND WRN KY.
   ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
   THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE CAP WEAKENS
   AND AS A VORT MAX PIVOTS SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE NATURE
   OF THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 10:16:59 AM
Thanks, MS...All I'm able to get are Mid TN schools, so any of you guys who are out there lurking in West or East TN who have closings to announce, we have a WHOLE section for that and PLEASE feel free to put them there...IT'LL BE A BIG HELP!!!!

If you get anymore from the West TN area, MS, let us know, AND THANKS!!!!!  I'll c&p your message over in the closings thread.


******NEVER MIND!!!!  You're a good man, Charlie Brown!!!*******
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 10:21:32 AM
Just noticed that the Nashville NWS office has now cranked up the wording since earlier this morning...

Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
 930 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006
 ...

 A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE
 MIDSTATE BY TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR AND AN
 INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS
 THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE MID STATE...
 INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. SEVERE WETHER
 WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY TIME TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TIME OF
 GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING.
 THE EVENING WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LONG TRACK
 TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE STORM
 PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID STATE UNDER A
 MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE SOUTH HALF IS UNDER A HIGH
 RISK OF SEVER WEATHER.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 07, 2006, 10:28:10 AM
Just found out that DeSoto County Schools in NW Ms are closing.  Thats where my son attends.  I kept him home, glad I did.

TW posted as well for E Ar. and W. Tn. until 8pm.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 10:29:40 AM
*****PDS Tornado Watch*****

Quote
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0162_radar.gif)
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
          SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
          SOUTHERN INDIANA
          CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
          SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
          WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1020 AM UNTIL 800
   PM CDT.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POPLAR
   BLUFF MISSOURI TO 60 MILES EAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
   ACROSS TN VALLEY AHEAD OF DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER NERN KS.  STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MDT TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT/LONG
   TRACK TORNADOES.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER!?!?!?!?!  :shock:  :shock:  :shock:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 10:34:51 AM
oops just posted the text on the sticky...

You know...I remember a day in early April some 32 years ago...got nailed in the shoulder a couple of times with 4.5" hail....We were running across the street to a neighbor's basement.

That hail was documented at the Louisville NWS too....Wished we had a camera back then....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 10:38:55 AM
New cells firing in west TN... SVR warnings issued for Tipton and Haywood Counties.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 07, 2006, 10:41:32 AM
Torando Watch box does not include Ms at this point.  For you more experienced folks, is the high risk area shifting more to the north now?

I know this in no way gives N Ms. the all clear, but not to be included in the watch box gives me reason to beleive the focus is shifting north.

Opinions please.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 10:46:19 AM
NO MS is still very much under the gun. There is a dry slot pushing through AR into W TN attm. Convection is firing just ahead of this dryslot.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 10:52:30 AM
You're still in the high risk zone in northern MS.  It's just started up here first.  The risk to MS and AL will really be later from what I understand.  I did notice a trend of the SPC expanding the risk zones northward this morning.  The moderate risk was expanded into KY, and the high risk was shifted to the west-northwest somewhat... which seems to put northern MS at a higher risk... we'll have to wait to see what adjustments the SPC makes on their next update.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 07, 2006, 10:54:40 AM
I see on the SPC site that a Tornado Watch will likely be issued for N Ms. within the hour.


Mesoscale Discussion 454
< Previous MD          Next MD >

   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1047 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NERN LA...CNTRL AND NRN MS...CNTRL AND NRN
   AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071547Z - 071745Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE DAY. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   THIS MORNING AN AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOW TO MID 60S HAS SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATUS.
   HOWEVER...MIXING IS INCREASING AROUND THE EDGES OF THIS STRATUS DECK
   WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE ACROSS ERN AR. THE
   SPECIAL 14Z RAOB FROM JACKSON MS SHOWED SOME COOLING HAS OCCURRED IN
   THE 850-700 MB LAYER WITH LITTLE CAP REMAINING. THIS SUGGEST ONLY A
   MODEST AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING IS NEEDED WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS TO
   PROMOTE SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
   CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT EWD
   ABOVE THE WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   INITIALLY OVER SERN AR AND NRN MS THEN SPREAD EWD. A 30-40 KT SWLY
   LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM SEWD ADVANCING UPPER
   TROUGH. THIS FEATURE AND A STRONG WSWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
   PROFILES AND EXPECTED DISCRETE MODES...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL
   BE POSSIBLE.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Anonymous on April 07, 2006, 10:55:55 AM
Well, I had just heard on the weather channel that the threat didn't seem as high as it did yesterday.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 11:05:02 AM
HAHA Weather Channel? Please step away from the remote.

The weather channel is a joke now.

Do yourself a favor and stay far far away from it unless you're watching Storm Stories or something.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: c_phillips on April 07, 2006, 11:05:44 AM
Is the cloud cover here in southern middle tn gonna affect the daytime heating any or has daytime heating already occured?
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 07, 2006, 11:06:04 AM
Well the sun is starting to pop out here in NW  Ms.  Just another ingredient to add to the mix here.  The pot is beginning to simmer.............
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 11:09:24 AM
The heating has occured plenty to start the popcorn poppin.

Current Temp in Mt Juliet TN is 71' Dewpoint 60.8'

Scattered clouds will only serve to heat the ground unevenly resulting in an even more unstable environment.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 11:14:10 AM
It appears that hail has been the story across West TN so far... not seeing any reports of damaging winds yet.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 11:15:01 AM
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1048 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006 SHORT TERM


..DANGEROUS...POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING TORNADO OUTBREAK FORECAST FOR THE MID-SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...


A STRAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL HAS DEVELOPED IN NW MS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS WRN TN. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE SEVERE TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST. SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE STORM TYPE WITH A RISK OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A DEEP SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OVER KS WILL TRACK SEWD INTO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY DYNAMICS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN WHERE THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPS...WHICH IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. BACKING OF THE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS...BUT ATTM THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH IS UNDER A SERIOUS THREAT.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 11:21:23 AM
:shock:

um...yeah...That activity is diminishing alright...... :roll:
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 11:21:45 AM
Shelby County (Memphis) has a SVR warning... for the second time this morning already.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 11:23:18 AM
Alright all, gotta step out to lunch for a bit.

Keep up the good working posting updates to SPC and NWS info. With all of us I don't need to have near as many tabs open on my browser ;)
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 11:33:25 AM
I just want to post this link before I go.

If you want to know how to prepare for a tornado and WHERE TO GO if a tornado warning is issued please read this link:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/safety.html
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: kacey on April 07, 2006, 11:40:14 AM
Now I'm really starting to get nervous! I hope everyone is safe. Hopefully, JUST HOPEFULLY everything will be ok and it won't get to bad!
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 11:45:25 AM
It's like they always say......ALOT....."Prepare for the worst, hope for the best"

We have hours to go, just know where you need to go in case you have a tornado warning...

Click on that link that Ron provided concerning tornado safety and things will be okay....

I always try to prepare, it just lessens the stress.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: dapig on April 07, 2006, 11:50:35 AM
I have been checking this site outsince the winter storms. I find it interesting to watch the prediction as the storms  progress. I know that these super cells are hard to predict. I have been asked to help advise a school on if the should reschedult their senior night that is scheduled for tonight. The school is located in wilson county. I have given them my opinion but wanted to see what some of you  thought also.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 11:56:57 AM
If my boys had any activities at school this evening, THEY WOULD NOT BE ATTENDING....

Ron Jarrell, one of our Moderators will be back in a little while after lunch and he is more versed on the meteorolgical terms, BUT PLEASE REMEMBER THIS..."We are NOT an official Forecasting site.  We just give our opinions about what might happen and report what has happened."

Local media outlets, The National Weather Service, and The Storm Prediction Center would be the official outlets...

BUT IF YOU WANTED A MOTHER'S OPINION WHO'S BEEN THROUGH TORNADOES IN 1974 AND HURRICANE ANDREW IN 1992......I WOULD NOT WANT MY BOYS HAVING SENIOR NIGHT TONIGHT......
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 12:03:48 PM
THEY HAVE JUST CHANGED THE HIGH RISK AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF MIDDLE TN!!!! PAY ATTENTION!!!!

Quote
SPC AC 071632
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
   VALLEY...TN VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OH
   VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND OH/TN
   VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATED DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS HAD BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE ESE....WITH THIS TREND
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW REACHES THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS BY
   12Z SATURDAY.  BAND OF VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WITHIN BASE OF
   LOW FROM TX/OK INTO LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS.
   
   IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NRN/NERN KS...WILL
   DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SRN MO/NRN AR BY EVENING.  MEANWHILE... A
   COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER
   ERN CANADA...CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SRN QUEBEC SWWD THROUGH SRN
   LOWER MI TO SRN IA.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SSE ACROSS THE NERN
   STATES AND OH VALLEY REGION TODAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
   DELMARVA REGION TO THE TN VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY.  STRONG SLY LOW
   LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW AND S OF COLD FRONT WILL TRANSPORT
   RICH MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
   
   ...LA/MS/TN/AL/GA INTO MID MS/OH VALLEYS...
   SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
   HIGH RISK AREA FROM NRN MS/AL INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN...WITH THREAT
   EXTENDING EWD INTO ERN TN/NRN GA BY THIS EVENING.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS QUITE
   FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES /MUCAPE OF 2000-3000
   J/KG AND LCL HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW 1KM/ ACROSS NRN MS/NRN AL AND
   WRN/MIDDLE TN.
   
   RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS
   ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE OH VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS.  ABUNDANT SURFACE HEATING WILL
   CONTINUE TO AID IN THIS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS FURTHER WEAKENING
   CAP AS INDICATED PER SPECIAL 14Z JAN SOUNDING. PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE
   RATES WILL SPREAD EWD INTO OH VALLEY AND EXISTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
   ACROSS REST OF WARM SECTOR WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND INSOLATION
   TO RESULT IN MUCAPE RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE MODERATE
   AND HIGH RISK AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT /40-50 KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS BENEATH 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS/ WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF
   250-400 M2/S2/ FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS.  
   
   FARTHER N...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE FROM IL/IND EWD
   ACROSS OH/PA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.  STRENGTHENING WIND
   FIELDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS
   TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SSEWD INTO THE MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY
   PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LINEAR...
   BUT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN IL/IND INTO SRN OH WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL BE GREATER.
   
   ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
   SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS
   AIR MASS DESTABILIZES IN THE WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS.
    STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INTO
   PARTS OF SRN PA AND POTENTIALLY WRN MD/ERN WV AS MLCAPE VALUES REACH
   AROUND 1000 J/KG.  ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
   ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TODAY SHOULD APPROACH THE CENTRAL/SRN
   APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...BUT EWD SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY
   DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...PARTS OF KS/OK/WRN MO/NWRN AR...
   COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH CENTRAL PLAINS LOW ATOP PROGGED
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN DESTABILIZING THE
   AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
   WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT
   A FEW OF THE STRONGER CORES MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
   HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.  THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
   GIVEN THE ONSET OF STABILIZATION PER THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.
   
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: dapig on April 07, 2006, 12:09:34 PM
servo that is what i was wanting. They listened to me and postponed. I am actuualy the SRO officer at the school. I have been watching noaa, nashvillewx and here for the last 2 days. I gave them my oppinon and told them some of the other opinons of the storms and they decided they wouldnt chance it. I will try to give any storm reports we get here in wilson county.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: c_phillips on April 07, 2006, 12:11:20 PM
Clouds are starting to break and sun shining off and on. Current temp in lowers 70s and dew point lower 60s here in lawrence co.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 12:14:00 PM
GREAT!!!!!!!!

I am truly relieved to hear that....I cannot tell you the thoughts that were running through my head about potential news reports tomorrow....

"The Senior Class of Wilson Co. High (not sure if this is your school) is in mourning....."

 :cry: I can't think about it.....[/b]
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 12:22:26 PM
The warnings are coming in pretty quick guys, I don't think I'll be able to keep up with them...sorry...

Bedford co. is right below me, so I may have to leave if Rutherford Co. decides to close shortly...

I'll let you know..
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 12:25:45 PM
It looks like Newschannel 5+ (Comcast channel 50) is already doing Wall-to-wall coverage, just so you guys know...

Charlie Neese in on-air now.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: dapig on April 07, 2006, 12:47:22 PM
The warnings seem to be happening alot faster now. Also seem to be moving more east. Im starting to wrry that they might reach wilson county about the time school lets out.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 12:49:29 PM
That is why alot of systems are closing early...I'm watching those too...

There are already reports of Tornadoes on the GROUND in Carroll and Humphreys County....

SCARY....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 01:15:31 PM
I'm finally back for a little bit. Juggling my REGULAR job and this is hard as heck.  But I'm doing my best to stay on top of it.

The Wilson Co. school thing would have been a definite no go in my opinion. You guys did the right thing. Thanks servo for doing such a good job of covering everything.

I'll take a look at all the current data and be back in a min with a post on what's going on and what is ahead.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 01:20:13 PM
I ain't got all these feathers for nuthin' you know!!!

woo hoo!!

Yeah, I suffer from LBDS....Little Black Duck Syndrome....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 01:25:07 PM
New SPC graphic, for what it's worth...

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif)
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 01:26:27 PM
Robertson and Sumner Co has a right motion Supercell headed directly for them. Could even clip Ashland City
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: c_phillips on April 07, 2006, 01:27:03 PM
The significant tornado parameter on the spc mesoscale analysis is showing 2 and 3 numbers and the description says most larger tornados are associated with 1+stp how much worse is a three than a one?
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 01:28:43 PM
News 2 is wall-to-wall now....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 01:34:23 PM
TORNADO WARNING CHEATHAM

This is the one I said would be clipping Ashland Cty.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 01:36:07 PM
It is an ugly one...
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 01:39:38 PM
TAKE COVER NOW

PENDANT ON HOOK NOW

(http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-2708-1144434934.png)
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 01:40:02 PM
the cell is moving EAST at 45 mph... could affect areas just north of Nashville
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 01:40:29 PM
This one is on the ground...
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 01:41:12 PM
It's a right moving supercell.

North Davidson Co. Sumner and Robertson prepare to take cover.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 01:43:34 PM
STorm report

0133 PM     TORNADO          PARKER'S CROSS ROADS    35.79N 88.39W
04/07/2006                   HENDERSON          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            MOVING NE
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 01:44:44 PM
Quote from: "servocrow"
This one is on the ground...

Tornado on the ground on Hwy 48 in Cheatham County
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 01:45:25 PM
It's on the ground just N ASHLAND CTY

TAKE COVER

THIS IS A REAL TORNADO EMERG.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 01:46:23 PM
0139 PM     TORNADO          ASHLAND CITY            36.28N 87.06W
04/07/2006                   CHEATHAM           TN   AMATEUR RADIO  

            TORNADO SPOTTED ON THE GROUND IN ASHLAND CITY ALONG
            HIGHWAY 48
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 01:47:54 PM
I'lll be back I'm chasing this one.


Let you know how it goes.

C yall.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 01:49:28 PM
Quote from: "Ron_Jarrell"
I'lll be back I'm chasing this one.


Let you know how it goes.

C yall.

Ron, do be careful.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 01:54:39 PM
:shock: BE CAREFUL!!!!!
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: kacey on April 07, 2006, 02:31:26 PM
does anyone know where the cold front is located at right now?
Title: noaa weather radio
Post by: jamie on April 07, 2006, 02:50:34 PM
Is anyone else experiencing a problem w/ their radio?  Mine lost signal, I tried the other 2 available channels, but no luck.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 03:28:13 PM
Ron,
I wished you would get back....There are reports of cars strewn all over I-65 in the Goodletsville area...
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 03:34:56 PM
I will be shutting down the computer shortly...the "on ground" tornado below Spring Hill isn't keeping that right hand turn..I anticipate a warning for us shortly....


c-ya
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 03:36:31 PM
WOOOOHAAAAA@!!!!!

I caught the Gallatin tornado as it passed over VOL STATE and the TOyota dealership! What a freakin rush.

Unfort there are some injuries at vol state

Cars are all over Gallatin rd

I got some pics will upload when I can
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2006, 03:45:08 PM
:shock: Wow, Ron!  :shock:

I hear it's bad up that way.

I just watched the wall cloud pass in Bellevue in this latest cell.  The clouds were hanging down with considerable turbulence.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Susan on April 07, 2006, 03:54:44 PM
Picked up Sumner Co. EMT requesting help from surrounding counties, including Wm. Co.  They are reporting "multiple fatalities".  Have heard nothing of this on the TV, just from the scanner.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Susan on April 07, 2006, 04:10:33 PM
South of Franklin - just got a pretty good shower of 1" hail.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: amsd2dth on April 07, 2006, 04:16:37 PM
Hail in Franklin at Mack Hatcher and Royal Oaks.. strong rain.. I have a video but it will take too long to upload right now..
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 04:36:42 PM
I'm back Kingston Springs storm was a dud.

Murfreesboro apparently got hit. The one coming up from SW Davidson Co. looks like it may track very close through nashville and wilson co.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 04:56:34 PM
The Fire Chief (M'Boro) was just on TV saying there wasn't any major damage....Not much at all on the South end of the county.

Glad you are safe...

Two confirmed deaths so far...

Gallatin, Goodletsville, Ashland City got hit hard.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 04:58:52 PM
SMITHVILLE ONE ON THE GROUND
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 05:13:31 PM
TORNADO ON THE GROUND 7 MI NORTH MCMINNVILLE

HEADED TO SPARTA

TAKE COVER NOWWWWW!!!!!!

THIS IS A STRONG TORNADO WITH A CLASSIC HOOK AND PENDANT SIGNATURE.

TAKE COVER IF YOU"RE ANYWHERE NEAR THIS>
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Susan on April 07, 2006, 05:13:53 PM
Just finished with another round of hail.  Not the 1" we had earlier, more like 1/2".  Sun out now, can't be a good thing????
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 05:30:34 PM
Round two for M'boro, just crossing the county line from Susan's way!!
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 05:35:02 PM
Have you guys seen that line all the way down through Mississippi????  The Tornado Watch is already extended until 11:00...Lisa Patton just said it may have to be extended later than that...
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 05:53:46 PM
***7 CONFIRMED FATALITIES IN SUMNER CO.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 06:03:52 PM
I just got this Yahoo! News alert:

Quote
Tornadoes Sweep Through Tennessee, Kill 7 1 minute ago
 


NASHVILLE, Tenn. - Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms struck Tennessee on Friday afternoon, killing at least seven people, peeling away roofs and flipping cars over, officials said.


 
Tornadoes were reported in the Nashville suburbs of Goodlettsville and Hendersonville, and in Holladay, about 90 miles west of Nashville. The storms flattened trees, knocked down power lines and damaged homes and other buildings.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 06:22:19 PM
8 fatalities now in Sumner Co

Green Hill TN unknown number of fatalities.

Tornado on ground near Petersburg TN in Marshall Co

Another confirmed near crossville.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 06:30:58 PM
Did anyone else see the tornado footage on WKRN showing the actual tornado? Who took that and which tornado was it.

It looked a lot like the Gallatin tornado
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 06:39:04 PM
MEDIA calling this FAR worse than APRIL 16 98 outbreak that we were analogging this with earlier in the week.

THIS is history folks. We are watching a system that will be studied for years.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 06:42:16 PM
The map was so eerily similiar to 4/3/74 it's not even funny...

and I know funny.....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 06:52:33 PM
Guys this is unreal

I really never thought it would be this big. INSANE

I'm wondering if this is going to fire back up around Nashville W.

I'm thinking it will but this is so fast paced I can't keep up.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 06:54:38 PM
150 KNOT GATE TO GATE SHEAR JUST NNW OF LYNCHBURG TN.

UNBELIEVEABLE THAT"S UNHEARD OF ON DOPPLER FOR GATE TO GATE SHEAR. I WOULDN"T BE SURPRISED IF THAAT WAS AN F4
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 06:56:57 PM
Supercells building back toward W TN. Still moving our way. Nashville may be back under the gun again in a little while.

Everyone stay tuned
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Susan on April 07, 2006, 06:57:31 PM
Getting a bit of rain and a TREMENDOUS lightning show now.  WOW
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 07:00:47 PM
www.whnt.com

LIVE FEED WALL CLOUD/FUNNEL ON LIVE TV NOW
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 07:21:38 PM
Moving into Giles Co TN LIVE

WALL CLOUD AND RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO LIVE CROSSIGN INTO GILES
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 07:38:46 PM
Incredible Day....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: msdawg911 on April 07, 2006, 08:04:17 PM
A new Tornado Watch has just been issued for western TN until 4:00 am. Wow. Guess I'll be up for the next eight hours.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 08:04:20 PM
Anybody have any more storm reports?
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 08:06:59 PM
Quote
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE FROM PARTS OF N CNTRL
   MISSISSIPPI THRU NRN ALABAMA...PARTS OF SRN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NW
   GEORGIA....
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE AND
   HIGH RISK AREAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST....
   
   SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
   OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
   NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION.  MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE FEATURES WILL COME
   INCREASINGLY IN PHASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERN IMPULSE
   DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY.
   ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTS WILL ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
   SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF WARM
   MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST INTO THE
   CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES.
   
   AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
   TORNADOES...IS ONGOING IN WARM/MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE PRE-
   FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS...IF NOT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
   PERIOD.  BY 02-03Z...PRIMARY THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   FOCUSED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING MOST OTHER
   AREAS. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL IN THE LEE OF
   THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT...A RETURN FLOW OF GULF
   MOISTURE COULD OCCUR IN NARROW TONGUE...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY
   SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS*...
   A TRANSITION FROM MORE OF A TORNADO/HAIL THREAT TO A WIND THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT.  TIMING OF THIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
   UNCERTAIN...AND MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SOMETIME CLOSER TO 06Z.
   HOWEVER...EVEN THEN...RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES PROBABLY WILL
   PERSIST AHEAD OF EVOLVING SQUALL LINE THROUGH DAY BREAK ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES.
   
   THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME FOCUSED ON A
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A 30 TO 50 KT
   SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  LARGE/CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS ALONG THIS AXIS ARE ENHANCING TORNADO THREAT IN
   SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND.  THE BOUNDARY IS
   CURRENTLY QUASI STATIONARY FROM PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
   THROUGH MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
   EASTWARD AND DEVELOP SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
   SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH.
   
   MOIST INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN BEST
   SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   REMAINDER OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO NORTHWEST
   GEORGIA.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: servocrow on April 07, 2006, 08:07:03 PM
No, our weather has passed to the north and south...vivid lightning and thunder....
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: amsd2dth on April 07, 2006, 08:46:47 PM
just rain now, with some pretty lightning..
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 09:00:19 PM
Yeah. We're still under tornado watch in Nashville area, but it looks like it's pretty much over for us. Instability further south. Jet streak very visible in WV and infrared sat imagery to the S of Nashville and approaching Chattanooga area.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 09:16:32 PM
Cells just popped up Clarksville and Paris TN
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Susan on April 07, 2006, 09:26:48 PM
Hey all you smarter folks than I, just tell me I can head on to bed, I'm pooped.  Please tell me the fat lady has sung????
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Woodvegas on April 07, 2006, 09:27:52 PM
I had 3+ inch hail here in Cannon County. I have too many to count big dents in the metal shingles on my house. I may have to replace the whole lot. I also had damage to the siding at the back of my house. I have never seen hail this big. My cousin had the windshield of her car shattered. My daughter saw a funnel cloud on the way to my house around 5PM. Family and friends come to my house when it's bad because I have a tornado room. It was used today!
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Dustin on April 07, 2006, 09:40:15 PM
I will jump right in here with you all! :D

Well today, it is a wait and see game for N GA, and I have a hard time decding where this will go..

Last night my thoughts were that the High risk would be pushed westard into west mississippi, and eroded away from northern ga, and I am correct. So I was proud of my self this morning. Thundersnow, did you get into any of these nasty supercells today, as you live in nashville, and at 10:40 pm are you getting any right now? It looks like these storms may be settling down a bit, but it may be to early to tell. Stay safe everyone
(OFF TOPIC)

I am really glad to see thundersnow from talk weather over here as well. I am always happy to see familar faces. I also own a weather site at www.theweathervane.info This is a really nice site here and I am glad to be a part of it.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 10:22:13 PM
Watching Decatur AL hook and pendant with doughnut in AL now. Good jeebus

Unreal!!!!!!!1

Nashville I think tornado threat is over. Should be safe.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 07, 2006, 10:22:59 PM
Dodged a bullet here at my location here in Lawrence County today. It got very threatening around 5pm and for the first time took shelter at my neighbor's parents house.  Locations just a few miles to my north and west reported quarter size hail and a vehicle overturned.  

No hail or high winds to report at my place.  Peak wind gust was 34mph and I've picked up 1.15" of rain so far.  It's been raining steadily and the lightning is actually picking up as I write this.  I wonder how much of a threat still exists in this area.  I would think all of this rain is stablizing things.  So sad to hear of the destruction in other areas today.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 10:44:22 PM
Tornado moving into downton Huntsville AL just S of city center.

Confirmed
Title: Putnam
Post by: mattman on April 07, 2006, 10:55:53 PM
The magic dome of protection has once again spared Putnam County from any real storms.   I feel for those in the affected areas.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on April 07, 2006, 11:02:18 PM
Gate to gate showing up just S of Decatur AL again. Same track as last tornado. Heading for Huntsville again. Training. WOW!

Nice gate to gate one has to be on the ground there too.
Title: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
Post by: Thundersnow on April 08, 2006, 12:34:04 AM
Quote from: "Dustin"
Thundersnow, did you get into any of these nasty supercells today, as you live in nashville, and at 10:40 pm are you getting any right now?

Welcome, Dustin.  :)

The most I witnessed today was a wall cloud that passed with a cell that reportedly dropped a tornado 20 miles west of me (nothing serious from that one as far as I know).  Later, I caught the northern edge of the precip from the cell that passed from Centerville-Franklin-Murfreesboro.  

Tomorrow, I may drive through some of the storm path to see the damage from the cell that hit Gallatin (those areas that are accessible, that is).  The areal footage of the storm path they've been showing on local news is incredible.

My thoughts and prayers are with the people in those areas.  :(