Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Monthly Discussions and General Weather => Topic started by: Thundersnow on March 28, 2021, 03:38:59 PM

Title: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on March 28, 2021, 03:38:59 PM
Thursday is April 1st.

And, it’s going to start off cold. Perhaps 40s for highs the first day of the month followed by overnight lows possibly dropping into the upper 20s... bringing freezing concerns to vulnerable plants and trees on Friday morning.

Should rebound over the weekend followed by warmer temps next week.

Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on March 28, 2021, 03:45:03 PM
Thursday is April 1st.

And, it’s going to start off cold. Perhaps 40s for highs the first day of the month followed by overnight lows possibly dropping into the upper 20s... bringing freezing concerns to vulnerable plants and trees on Friday morning.

Should rebound over the weekend followed by warmer temps next week.
yeah , dogwood winter incoming . Typical this time year
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on March 28, 2021, 03:59:49 PM
The first 10 days or so look to be pretty boring.  This is good because we could use a break.

First the frost/freeze potential and then we should see a Central US Ridge pattern. 

I still think the second half of this month gets pretty active severe weather-wise and that may last until the first few days of May before we see a May 2012, 2018, or 2019 pattern take hold.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: JayCee on March 28, 2021, 06:20:21 PM
The first 10 days or so look to be pretty boring.  This is good because we could use a break.

Yes, we could!
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Matthew on March 28, 2021, 08:56:15 PM
Give me boring wx thru April.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on March 29, 2021, 08:09:09 AM
Give me boring wx thru April.

sure has been a busy past 7 days, a good break wouldn't hurt my feelings
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on March 29, 2021, 08:49:18 AM
sure has been a busy past 7 days, a good break wouldn't hurt my feelings
i am already been digging hard n looking ahead for next system... good news for some is I can’t find one as of yet lol... maybe good week half break coming at least .
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on March 29, 2021, 09:25:40 AM
i am already been digging hard n looking ahead for next system... good news for some is I can’t find one as of yet lol... maybe good week half break coming at least .

This has happened before, a front loaded type of spring with a very quiet april, and then it ramps up again in late april to may...i will never forget may 2003 when there was about a 7 day period of moderate and high risks in mid south, that was a scary several days
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on March 29, 2021, 09:29:39 AM
This has happened before, a front loaded type of spring with a very quiet april, and then it ramps up again in late april to may...i will never forget may 2003 when there was about a 7 day period of moderate and high risks in mid south, that was a scary several days
yess May 4 2003 bad night here Jackson , ef 4 raked downtime wiped several subdivisions out . 20 fatalities alone here Jackson that evening ..
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on March 29, 2021, 09:29:59 AM
I could go for some April snow  ::yum::
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on March 29, 2021, 09:35:29 AM
yess May 4 2003 bad night here Jackson , ef 4 raked downtime wiped several subdivisions out . 20 fatalities alone here Jackson that evening ..

yes , day after day of threat, that was a hard week....
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on March 29, 2021, 09:37:24 AM
This has happened before, a front loaded type of spring with a very quiet april, and then it ramps up again in late april to may...i will never forget may 2003 when there was about a 7 day period of moderate and high risks in mid south, that was a scary several days
That week was the worst flooding in Chattanooga in my lifetime. I can't remember exactly how much it rained, but the TN river blew past flood stage despite TVA's best efforts.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: snowdog on March 29, 2021, 11:56:02 AM
Anyone else having tougher than usual allergies this Spring?
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Charles L. on March 29, 2021, 12:57:28 PM
Anyone else having tougher than usual allergies this Spring?

Yes. My gf and I are STRUGGLING this year. It’s been bad for about the past 2 weeks or so.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on March 29, 2021, 01:07:30 PM
Anyone else having tougher than usual allergies this Spring?
YES. Big time. Mid season form already
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: JayCee on March 29, 2021, 02:44:25 PM
I could go for some April snow  ::yum::

GFS continues to show a mix or possible quick changeover on April Fool's Day, at least for eastern areas.  A hard freeze is on the table that night, as well.  Not that I really want that with so many plants budding already.  Oh well, typical spring in Tennessee. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on March 29, 2021, 02:47:13 PM
GFS continues to show a mix or possible quick changeover on April Fool's Day, at least for eastern areas.  A hard freeze is on the table that night, as well.  Not that I really want that with so many plants budding already.  Oh well, typical spring in Tennessee.

Nothing in the face of that frost we had on May 9, 2020. That was eerie.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: JayCee on March 29, 2021, 03:03:57 PM
Nothing in the face of that frost we had on May 9, 2020. That was eerie.

Yeah, that was the latest frost I've seen since moving here in 03.  Even a hard freeze occured just north of here in KY. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: snowdog on March 29, 2021, 07:57:01 PM
Yes. My gf and I are STRUGGLING this year. It’s been bad for about the past 2 weeks or so.

Yep, almost exactly my timeframe. 2 weeks ago I noticed it and its been brutal. Started getting a bit better a few days ago. Hopefully I'm about done with it.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Charles L. on March 29, 2021, 08:29:33 PM
Yep, almost exactly my timeframe. 2 weeks ago I noticed it and its been brutal. Started getting a bit better a few days ago. Hopefully I'm about done with it.

What I have noticed so far is that it has impacted my hearing more. I’ve never had hearing trouble but I can tell the drainage and head pressure is having an effect like never before. My nose hasn’t been as bad though which I’ll take.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on March 29, 2021, 09:11:12 PM
Look at all you wimps with your seasonal allergies.



Meanwhile, I would die of an allergic reaction from most tree nuts- even if I only had one. I could even go into anaphylaxis just by smelling them.  ::lookaround::

Tired of me posting? Send me an envelope full of cashew dust.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Eric on March 29, 2021, 09:58:34 PM
I dont know why that last post made me giggle-snort.....


......but it did.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Heath22 on March 29, 2021, 10:25:07 PM
I could go for some April snow  ::yum::

Bite your tongue young fella. ;)
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 30, 2021, 08:44:44 AM
I could go for some April snow  ::yum::


Yes, now that we have had some flooding and severe weather, we can add a bit of snow back to the mix. I may head up to the smokies later this week to get some much deserved hiking in. Areas above 5000ft could see some light accumulation.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on March 30, 2021, 08:47:35 AM
Look at all you wimps with your seasonal allergies.



Meanwhile, I would die of an allergic reaction from most tree nuts- even if I only had one. I could even go into anaphylaxis just by smelling them.  ::lookaround::

Tired of me posting? Send me an envelope full of cashew dust.

I can let you borrow an epi pen if needed   :D
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: snowdog on March 30, 2021, 01:57:47 PM
Look at all you wimps with your seasonal allergies.



Meanwhile, I would die of an allergic reaction from most tree nuts- even if I only had one. I could even go into anaphylaxis just by smelling them.  ::lookaround::

Tired of me posting? Send me an envelope full of cashew dust.

I just had a dark chocolate covered cashew in your honor. You're welcome.  >:D
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Flash on March 30, 2021, 07:20:03 PM
Anyone else having tougher than usual allergies this Spring?

Not yet. Normally it hits this time of year but I've wondered if the post-damp dryness that is our 7-day forecast will revive the potential. That or I just need to get out more.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on March 30, 2021, 10:44:39 PM
I just had a dark chocolate covered cashew in your honor. You're welcome.  >:D

My throat is closing up from reading this...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on March 31, 2021, 10:30:08 AM
Do I see a brush with 80 degrees possible by mid next week?

We have to get through this redbud winter first.

The dogwoods aren't really blooming just yet, from what I can tell. The redbuds are going strong though, so that's what I think this cold snap is.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Navywxman on March 31, 2021, 10:50:18 AM
Forecasted temps Thursday night will practically wipe out most of the peach & nectarine crops for a majority of the state unfortunately.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on March 31, 2021, 11:30:58 AM
Do I see a brush with 80 degrees possible by mid next week?

We have to get through this redbud winter first.

The dogwoods aren't really blooming just yet, from what I can tell. The redbuds are going strong though, so that's what I think this cold snap is.
i am seeing low 80s by end next week
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on March 31, 2021, 11:52:08 AM
Forecasted temps Thursday night will practically wipe out most of the peach & nectarine crops for a majority of the state unfortunately.

 :(
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on March 31, 2021, 12:41:56 PM
I like it to get nice and cold on schedule like this. It's a good reminder that we don't live in the tropics, even though it damņ sure feels like we do 8 months out of the year.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on March 31, 2021, 02:10:52 PM
Quote
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Nashville TN
139 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-011200-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FZ.W.0001.210401T0800Z-210401T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KOHX.HZ.W.0001.210402T0300Z-210402T1400Z/
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield,
Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina,
Byrdstown, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Waverly, New Johnsonville,
McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville,
Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage,
Gordonsville, Gainesboro, Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown,
Allardt, Linden, Lobelville, Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin,
Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne,
Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta, Crossville, Shelbyville, Tullahoma,
Manchester, McMinnville, Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton,
Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, and Pulaski
139 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY...
...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM CDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures in the
  upper 20s and lower 30s. For the Hard Freeze Warning Thursday
  night into Friday morning, temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

* WHERE...Across Middle Tennessee.

* WHEN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday. For the
  Hard Freeze Warning, from 10 PM Thursday to 9 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freezing temperatures and a few patches of
  frost will occur for a short time around daybreak Thursday. Much
  greater impact is expected Thursday night into Friday morning
  with a hard freeze expected to last for several hours along with
  widespread frost.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

Freeze warning tonight. "Hard" freeze warning tomorrow night... I wasn't aware that was a product.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 01, 2021, 07:58:54 AM
Wintry morning on the regional radar with snow showers traveling SE into the Eastern Ohio Valley.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 01, 2021, 08:37:44 AM
Wintry morning on the regional radar with snow showers traveling SE into the Eastern Ohio Valley.

perfect day for opening day baseball in the northeast LOL
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 01, 2021, 08:49:37 AM
Things look like going be nice and quiet for awhile ... there is a System towards end next week I got eye on... for now way to early to worry about it ...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 01, 2021, 09:10:46 AM
Things look like going be nice and quiet for awhile ... there is a System towards end next week I got eye on... for now way to early to worry about it ...

saw that/thur friday time frame....just something to watch , anytime you get a low pressure showing up to our northwest this time of year need to pay attention
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 01, 2021, 10:43:59 AM
So, could the peak of severe weather season end up being calm for us? I don't write off mid to late April or even early May as delivering more risks just yet.

But, by May, that risk zone will tend to starting moving more north and west to the Midwest and Plains, while we get into more of the meso complex season which can generate strong to severe storms only with less of a tornadic component. Let's not forget the derecho that caused havoc for the Nashville area in May of last year.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Navywxman on April 01, 2021, 10:47:48 AM
As of right now, I see no real appreciable threats for a majority of the entire country until at least mid-month. We've all seen how "zero to a hundred" April can go though.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 01, 2021, 10:53:17 AM
So, could the peak of severe weather season end up being calm for us? I don't write off mid to late April or even early May as delivering more risks just yet.

But, by May, that risk zone will tend to starting moving more north and west to the Midwest and Plains, while we get into more of the meso complex season which can generate strong to severe storms only with less of a tornadic component. Let's not forget the derecho that caused havoc for the Nashville area in May of last year.

A true derecho sure is no joke...actually it is one of the more fascinating events imo. Will never forget the complex that started in Illinois and indiana and went all the way to the new jersey coast maintaining its severe status
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Flash on April 01, 2021, 11:12:10 AM
As of right now, I see no real appreciable threats for a majority of the entire country until at least mid-month. We've all seen how "zero to a hundred" April can go though.

I'm with you. This almost feels deja vu to how last month started. Although March came in as a lamb, it definitely ended as a pride of lions.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 01, 2021, 11:51:23 AM
As of right now, I see no real appreciable threats for a majority of the entire country until at least mid-month. We've all seen how "zero to a hundred" April can go though.
keep eye out 10th  through 15th...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 01, 2021, 12:22:19 PM
keep eye out 10th  through 15th...

Duly noted; what region, Bruce? Mid-South, Deep South, Southern Plains?

Of course, you will get shat on if you are wrong  >:D
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 01, 2021, 01:13:23 PM
Duly noted; what region, Bruce? Mid-South, Deep South, Southern Plains?

Of course, you will get shat on if you are wrong  >:D
the Lower Mississippi valley , mid-south regions ... we are starting to head into peak severe season for us.  I always like use period up to May 15 for our area to keep close eye 👁 on a traditional outbreak...  2011 there was a high risk day for our area on May 25th...  please don’t sleep on end next weeks system ....
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 01, 2021, 01:48:26 PM
Duly noted; what region, Bruce? Mid-South, Deep South, Southern Plains?

Of course, you will get shat on if you are wrong  >:D

LOL!!!! in honesty there are hints at a system both on euro and gfs that timeframe, whether there are any severe weather ingredients remains to be seen , but gfs and euro both hinting at a good low pressure sweeping through somewhere between mid south and midwest , remains to be seen
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 01, 2021, 08:06:42 PM
the Lower Mississippi valley , mid-south regions ... we are starting to head into peak severe season for us.  I always like use period up to May 15 for our area to keep close eye 👁 on a traditional outbreak...  2011 there was a high risk day for our area on May 25th...  please don’t sleep on end next weeks system ....

It's interesting you use the May 15 date; a friend of mine who is a botany professor says that crops are safe from any abnormal late-season spring freezes and frosts after 5/15. It pretty much becomes a zero chance we will experience a freeze at our latitude and elevation after the middle of May. It's anecdotal, but the strikingly odd frost of May 2020 occurred on May 9.

It would make sense the window for powerful tornadoes significantly decreases after that date because the supply of cold air is not in place. As far as I know there hasn't been an EF3+ in Tennessee during the months of June-October. Threat always returns for these devastating tornadoes in our cold season.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Matthew on April 01, 2021, 08:36:04 PM
So, could the peak of severe weather season end up being calm for us? I don't write off mid to late April or even early May as delivering more risks just yet.

But, by May, that risk zone will tend to starting moving more north and west to the Midwest and Plains, while we get into more of the meso complex season which can generate strong to severe storms only with less of a tornadic component. Let's not forget the derecho that caused havoc for the Nashville area in May of last year.

I’d love for April to be quiet and nice.  Let’s just say bye to severe and flooding now!  👋🏻
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Flash on April 01, 2021, 10:00:18 PM
I’d love for April to be quiet and nice.  Let’s just say bye to severe and flooding now!  👋🏻

One more outbreak and I'll be ready for the electrical parades of summer. Hopefully the humidity will be tame by mid-south standards this year. I'm glad we'll have a chance to dry over the long weekend.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 01, 2021, 10:49:48 PM
Most tornadoes in Tennessee have occurred in May with April second actually ...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 02, 2021, 05:20:42 AM
It's interesting you use the May 15 date; a friend of mine who is a botany professor says that crops are safe from any abnormal late-season spring freezes and frosts after 5/15. It pretty much becomes a zero chance we will experience a freeze at our latitude and elevation after the middle of May. It's anecdotal, but the strikingly odd frost of May 2020 occurred on May 9.

It would make sense the window for powerful tornadoes significantly decreases after that date because the supply of cold air is not in place. As far as I know there hasn't been an EF3+ in Tennessee during the months of June-October. Threat always returns for these devastating tornadoes in our cold season.

There was one EF-3 in East TN in July sometime in the 2013-2015 timeframe but that timeframe did feature some unseasonably cool July periods. 

Overall the threat for widespread tornado outbreaks does go down quite a bit after May 20th with of course a few noteworthy exceptions (e.g. 5/27/1917 and 5/30-31/2004).   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 02, 2021, 06:46:24 AM
It’s looking like temperatures may have stayed a few degrees above forecast around the area... still sub freezing temps, but perhaps it wasn’t as hard a freeze as it could have been?

One more night of this tonight.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 02, 2021, 08:15:33 AM
Most tornadoes in Tennessee have occurred in May with April second actually ...

Early may can be a horrible time severe weather wise here , especially from 65 west as the transition to the plains and midwest occurs
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: JHart on April 02, 2021, 08:47:55 AM
It’s looking like temperatures may have stayed a few degrees above forecast around the area... still sub freezing temps, but perhaps it wasn’t as hard a freeze as it could have been?

One more night of this tonight.

A slight breeze helped us out here until around midnight; we managed a low of 25F.  My crabapple blossoms look undamaged, but my wisteria buds are a total loss ... again.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 02, 2021, 09:58:43 AM
GFS still printing out a low around st louis thursday with 2,000 cape north into central kentucky....just something to watch
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: JayCee on April 02, 2021, 11:07:11 AM
Down to 27 here, but no frost, not even on the cars.  My flowering cherry leaves looked a little wilted this morning, but the sun seems to have brought them back to life. 
Damage looks minimal despite the cold temperatures.  I suppose the lack of frost forming and freezing the foliage could have something to do with it. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 02, 2021, 11:32:35 AM
GFS still printing out a low around st louis thursday with 2,000 cape north into central kentucky....just something to watch

Agreed- SPC pointed out that there's a model spread, so not much confidence at this point to issue risks on an outlook.

But, it is April...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 02, 2021, 11:39:26 AM
Agreed- SPC pointed out that there's a model spread, so not much confidence at this point to issue risks on an outlook.

But, it is April...
dont sleep on that one... looking bit  more ominous on today’s 12 z gfs...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on April 02, 2021, 11:47:27 AM
Down to 27 here, but no frost, not even on the cars.  My flowering cherry leaves looked a little wilted this morning, but the sun seems to have brought them back to life. 
Damage looks minimal despite the cold temperatures.  I suppose the lack of frost forming and freezing the foliage could have something to do with it.
29 here, but same situation with the frost. It stayed pretty breezy here all night. I’m thinking we could be even colder tonight with calmer winds.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 02, 2021, 11:53:47 AM
Agreed- SPC pointed out that there's a model spread, so not much confidence at this point to issue risks on an outlook.

But, it is April...

i usually don't pay attention to things past 1 week but gfs has had this look for 48 hours now...the amount of cape is impressive, now if other elements come into play it could be something for sure
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 02, 2021, 12:03:23 PM
i usually don't pay attention to things past 1 week but gfs has had this look for 48 hours now...the amount of cape is impressive, now if other elements come into play it could be something for sure
low level shear. Not quite there yet on previous runs but it’s increasing
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 02, 2021, 12:04:49 PM
low level shear. Not quite there yet on previous runs but it’s increasing

noticed that as well, we shall see as we get closer, it's about peak time so anything can happen
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 02, 2021, 12:37:51 PM
a little off topic but is there a list (other than wiki) that shows anti cyclonic tornadoes, i noticed they seem even more rare than i thought, and one was just 2 miles north of me in hohenwald in 2016....just found that interesting
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Flash on April 02, 2021, 12:42:01 PM
low level shear. Not quite there yet on previous runs but it’s increasing

Thanks as always for the heads up, Bruce!
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 02, 2021, 12:44:10 PM
 ;)
Thanks as always for the heads up, Bruce!
yes sir...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 02, 2021, 12:48:53 PM
;)yes sir...

i didn't even get an honorable mention LOL!!!!!!!
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 02, 2021, 01:11:58 PM
i didn't even get an honorable mention LOL!!!!!!!
you got a like bama. ... lol
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 02, 2021, 03:48:56 PM
While it's tranquil, I thought I would share this 20-year data with you guys. Would really love to see this over 30 years from '91 to 2020.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 02, 2021, 03:49:30 PM
Please click for the best resolution.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 02, 2021, 04:00:39 PM
Please click for the best resolution.

how about all the winter and fall long tracks in southeast
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: JayCee on April 02, 2021, 05:22:57 PM
29 here, but same situation with the frost. It stayed pretty breezy here all night. I’m thinking we could be even colder tonight with calmer winds.

Dewpoints remained suppressed (mid-teens), so frost may have a tough time forming with lows bottoming out around 25 per the forecast.

Speaking of lows, the forecast seems quite a bit lower than what the short range models are showing (upper 20's and lower 30's).  Last run of the HRRR showed just below freezing here.  Let's hope they are right.  The less time below freezing, the less damage to blooming plants and trees. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 02, 2021, 05:50:36 PM
While it's tranquil, I thought I would share this 20-year data with you guys. Would really love to see this over 30 years from '91 to 2020.

(Attachment Link)

That really is an interesting map that I’d like more analysis on. I’m noticing besides seasonal trends, the higher occurrence areas versus less so.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Matthew on April 02, 2021, 10:42:42 PM
While it's tranquil, I thought I would share this 20-year data with you guys. Would really love to see this over 30 years from '91 to 2020.

(Attachment Link)

Interesting.  Looks like definitely more winter tornadoes than I thought there would be. I thought fall would have more but not the case.  Fall looks like it has hardly any tornadoes.  Of course Jan-March is still considered winter I’m guessing on that map?  To me March is spring but I know not officially.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Matthew on April 02, 2021, 10:46:31 PM
Dewpoints remained suppressed (mid-teens), so frost may have a tough time forming with lows bottoming out around 25 per the forecast.

Speaking of lows, the forecast seems quite a bit lower than what the short range models are showing (upper 20's and lower 30's).  Last run of the HRRR showed just below freezing here.  Let's hope they are right.  The less time below freezing, the less damage to blooming plants and trees.

Sadly my Japanese maple will lose all its leaves.  It’s to big to cover.  My azaleas the wind blew some of the covers off so I lost some of the blooms unfortunately.  The redbud blooms look like not even touched.  This typical late freeze in TN sucks but it’s part of living here.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Matthew on April 02, 2021, 10:48:52 PM
That really is an interesting map that I’d like more analysis on. I’m noticing besides seasonal trends, the higher occurrence areas versus less so.

It would be very interesting to see the last 10 years.  My guess is winter tornadoes would have just as many as spring tornadoes if not more. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 02, 2021, 11:58:26 PM
Interesting.  Looks like definitely more winter tornadoes than I thought there would be. I thought fall would have more but not the case.  Fall looks like it has hardly any tornadoes.  Of course Jan-March is still considered winter I’m guessing on that map?  To me March is spring but I know not officially.

The map uses meteorological seasons as the basis, so winter would be Dec 1- Feb 28/9, and so on.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 03, 2021, 05:37:56 AM
SPC puts out a 5 day risk on the system I and bama been talking about... catches part of west tennessee all of Arkansas pretty much...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 03, 2021, 08:16:46 AM
SPC puts out a 5 day risk on the system I and bama been talking about... catches part of west tennessee all of Arkansas pretty much...

For once i actually caught something in the long range :)

Somebody in midsouth/southeast is going to get something from this system, exactly where remains to be seen
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 03, 2021, 08:40:46 AM
For once i actually caught something in the long range :)

Somebody in midsouth/southeast is going to get something from this system, exactly where remains to be seen
looks like a potent cut off low
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on April 03, 2021, 10:22:36 AM
While it's tranquil, I thought I would share this 20-year data with you guys. Would really love to see this over 30 years from '91 to 2020.

(Attachment Link)
What’s with that strange concentration of summer tornadoes in NE GA? Must be related to tropical systems. I can’t picture much supercellular development in those mountains in summer.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Flash on April 03, 2021, 12:56:47 PM
While it's tranquil, I thought I would share this 20-year data with you guys. Would really love to see this over 30 years from '91 to 2020.

(Attachment Link)

You can clearly see February 5, 2008 represented in that graphic. I'm sure other memorable dates can be discerned but that was the first one to stand out for me. Crazy.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 03, 2021, 02:05:11 PM
You can clearly see February 5, 2008 represented in that graphic. I'm sure other memorable dates can be discerned but that was the first one to stand out for me. Crazy.

the east tennessee elevation is evident as well, although you can still get tornadoes that way it is a dramatic decrease east of cookville area
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 03, 2021, 02:08:04 PM
models seem to me to be taking the low pressure next week 150 miles farther n/w, decreasing chances as of now for severe weather imo for next week
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 03, 2021, 02:16:17 PM
models seem to me to be taking the low pressure next week 150 miles farther n/w, decreasing chances as of now for severe weather imo for next week
havent looked 12zgfs be honest ... but looking at euro face value still be problematic  for most midsouth ...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 03, 2021, 05:15:07 PM
well the 18z just brought it back on gfs
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 03, 2021, 06:57:09 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5orxm6fDKWQ

What to listen to Louisville Tornado coverage from 1974 here is the link.  Check out some of the old music clips and news.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 03, 2021, 08:50:25 PM
What’s with that strange concentration of summer tornadoes in NE GA? Must be related to tropical systems. I can’t picture much supercellular development in those mountains in summer.

I wish I knew. That's a great question.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 04, 2021, 05:42:37 AM
Appears models still can’t make its  mind  up for next week...  enso talk is a pretty strong la
Niña builds back this fall and last through next winter, we will see....
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 04, 2021, 08:13:01 AM
Appears models still can’t make its  mind  up for next week...  enso talk is a pretty strong la
Niña builds back this fall and last through next winter, we will see....

As of now again low to far northwest to have me worried about a real threat here based on models, we shall see, models have been all over the place on this one, almost as bad as a winter storm system lol
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Beth on April 04, 2021, 09:54:56 PM
I hope all my weather friends had a great Easter!  It sure was a beautiful day for Easter egg hunts.  And remembering Jesus gift of Eternal Life! 🙏🏻
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2021, 06:32:18 AM
Day 3 risk for Wednesday still remaining west/southwest of the state, mainly AR and N MS with the slight risk edging the Memphis area. Marginal risk for the west half of the state. It sounds like the typical scenario of storms further west congealing into a line with mainly a straight line wind threat and gradually weakening as it heads east.

If you like daytime highs in the 70s, this is your week.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 05, 2021, 07:56:53 AM
Day 3 risk for Wednesday still remaining west/southwest of the state, mainly AR and N MS with the slight risk edging the Memphis area. Marginal risk for the west half of the state. It sounds like the typical scenario of storms further west congealing into a line with mainly a straight line wind threat and gradually weakening as it heads east.

If you like daytime highs in the 70s, this is your week.

yep should be a wonderful week in the mid state :)

ALTHOUGH after last march I still keep my eyes on slight and marginal risks a bit more than I probably should
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 05, 2021, 12:50:43 PM
Just throwing this out for discussion since weather is boring right now :)

Does anybody here remember the 1995 severe outbreak on May 18th?

I feel it gets very much overlooked in this area, but that F4 supercell in lawrence county brought the biggest hail I have ever seen, softball to grapefruit sized hail fell on much of hohenwald ... that was a very rough outbreak

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/19950518
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on April 05, 2021, 02:07:48 PM
I remember that day. The Rivergate area and on out 31E got wrecked. I remember seeing on the news all the cars destroyed in the parking lot at the mall. It was amazing that no one was killed in that tornado. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 05, 2021, 02:17:19 PM
Just throwing this out for discussion since weather is boring right now :)

Does anybody here remember the 1995 severe outbreak on May 18th?

I feel it gets very much overlooked in this area, but that F4 supercell in lawrence county brought the biggest hail I have ever seen, softball to grapefruit sized hail fell on much of hohenwald ... that was a very rough outbreak

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/19950518

I wasn't alive/around then but a family friend in Shelbyville said the 1995 hailstorm was the worst they had ever seen.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2021, 02:38:12 PM
Just throwing this out for discussion since weather is boring right now :)

Does anybody here remember the 1995 severe outbreak on May 18th?

I feel it gets very much overlooked in this area, but that F4 supercell in lawrence county brought the biggest hail I have ever seen, softball to grapefruit sized hail fell on much of hohenwald ... that was a very rough outbreak

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/19950518

I remember it. I just so happened to be camping with family at the Napier campground off Natchez Trace in Lewis County when that hit. We had to take shelter in a building at the campground. The rangers came around and insisted everyone evacuate the campground with the approaching storm. I remember hail falling, and we were not really that far from the tornado in Lawrence County.

I remember the coverage of the tornado in Madison that day, as well as other areas affected by large hail.

That seemed like a very similar outbreak as the one that affected Middle TN three years later on April 16, 1998.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 05, 2021, 03:17:15 PM
I wasn't alive/around then but a family friend in Shelbyville said the 1995 hailstorm was the worst they had ever seen.

Yes it totally destroyed our roof and obviously car windshields shattered, after 25 years i have yet to see hail come anywhere near that size...i have pictures somewhere of me holding grapefruit sized ice in my hands . The ef4 was about 15 miles to my southeast near ethridge/summertown.
I was 10 years old at the time and from that moment i was HOOKED on weather
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 06, 2021, 08:38:37 AM
One thing about spring, our vehicles all have the same lime green paint job every morning LOL
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Greyhound on April 06, 2021, 08:54:54 AM
One thing about spring, our vehicles all have the same lime green paint job every morning LOL

Went to the Masters several years ago.  This was one of the golf carts the workers used....covered in pollen.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 06, 2021, 09:00:09 AM
My sedan is black.

Was. She's yellow now.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: NismoWx on April 06, 2021, 09:23:01 AM
This is my favorite weather. Ever. I leave the AC on 71ish, and wake up the next morning to low 60's in the house. MTEMC doesn't like it, but I LOVE it.

66 currently, no air running. I sleep better when it's cool.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Crockett on April 06, 2021, 10:23:44 AM
This is my favorite weather. Ever. I leave the AC on 71ish, and wake up the next morning to low 60's in the house. MTEMC doesn't like it, but I LOVE it.

66 currently, no air running. I sleep better when it's cool.

Same. I worry about people who call weather like this "boring" and sit around wringing their hands and wishing it would rain.  ;)
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2021, 10:55:40 AM
We have nothing running. Nothing. Thermostat is off. I don't mind a little bit of daily temperature spread. If the house starts getting stuffy, maybe toward 78 degrees or so, then I'll flip on the A/C. We did flip over to heat for a couple of days late last week with the cool snap. But, I'm going to try to financially take advantage of this nice long stretch of weather in the 70s.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 06, 2021, 11:01:06 AM
Memphis is under a Slight Risk effective tomorrow morning.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 06, 2021, 11:05:27 AM
gotta give reed timmer credit, he is consistent at hyping up slight risks for strong tornadoes
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Clay on April 06, 2021, 01:42:57 PM
My sedan is black.

Was. She's yellow now.
Me last weekend: I'm going to wash my car, no rain until Wednesday night!

Pollen: I'm about to ruin this man's whole car.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 06, 2021, 02:11:52 PM
Me last weekend: I'm going to wash my car, no rain until Wednesday night!

Pollen: I'm about to ruin this man's whole car.

I applied wax to my Honda.

Now it's a Honeycomb.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: JayCee on April 06, 2021, 03:04:51 PM
Last few days have been awesome.  Warm days followed by cool nights, so no heat or air conditioning needed.  You just have to time well when to open and close the windows. 

Redbuds are in full bloom, and dogwoods are close behind.  Hickories are rapidly turning green, and the oaks are about to share their green pollen.  We run a few days to a week behind middle and west TN. 

Spring has sprung. Winter is done. At least until the dogwoods fully bloom.  Then another frost may even be on the table looking at the long range GFS. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 06, 2021, 07:22:53 PM
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx

This drought monitor plus La-Nina climo heading into the Summer provides clues of where our Summer Death Ridges are likely going to setup. 

If I had to call two possible Summer analogs out of this pattern I would go with 2006 and 2017 off the top of my head.  Both average to slightly above average summers with the most intense heat focused more to our west, but with us getting torched pretty good at times. 

Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 07, 2021, 08:37:52 AM
SPC  has now put memphis in enhanced risk today with a 10 percent tornado chance. extended the slight risk slightly east north for today.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 07, 2021, 08:44:20 AM
SPC  has now put memphis in enhanced risk today with a 10 percent tornado chance. extended the slight risk slightly east north for today.

saw that one too bruce, still no hatched area, but nothing to sneeze at, we shall see :) I don't see this being outbreak material but several severe weather events are likely

Sure is an interesting SHARP cutoff east to west once you get near jackson as far as threat level for mid state, hardly any cape here
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2021, 08:44:25 AM
Looks like an incoming avocado.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210407_1300_prt.gif)
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 07, 2021, 08:45:37 AM
Overall not that sold on today's threat for severe weather in SW Tennessee

- Flow parallel to the front
- Weakening instability as one goes eastward
- Lapse rates not that steep

Still, there is a window for a QLCS to form and perhaps maintain into West TN as shear and instability are just enough, but I suspect the wheels start to really come off any line of strong to severe storms soon after crossing US 51. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 07, 2021, 08:49:47 AM
Overall not that sold on today's threat for severe weather in SW Tennessee

- Flow parallel to the front
- Weakening instability as one goes eastward
- Lapse rates not that steep

Still, there is a window for a QLCS to form and perhaps maintain into West TN as shear and instability are just enough, but I suspect the wheels start to really come off any line of strong to severe storms soon after crossing US 51.

I am in agreement with ya
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2021, 08:53:51 AM
There's a pretty large slight risk area on Day 3, from Texas to Alabama, for Friday. Marginal risk makes it up into TN.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Curt on April 07, 2021, 09:30:43 AM
Consistent BN temps and drier weather look to be the rule for the back half of April. I doubt that includes a freeze- but probably does include lots of sun with 60's during the day and 40's at night.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 07, 2021, 10:13:58 AM
So far, long range looking like no BIG severe outbreaks for midstate
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 07, 2021, 10:14:15 AM
Consistent BN temps and drier weather look to be the rule for the back half of April. I doubt that includes a freeze- but probably does include lots of sun with 60's during the day and 40's at night.
we better be enjoying it, because after that as we head into may, mid may we are heading right into summer looks like. i say we will see some 100 plus days this summer. ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 07, 2021, 10:16:30 AM
While the long-range pattern will be good and refreshing for us it will be very rough for the drought regions of Utah and Western Colorado.

The clock for meaningful rain and mountain snow is soon to run out for them before they get blazed by the Sonora Heat Ridge. 

While the blocking and +PNA is good for us and does keep at least significant severe weather out of our hair for longer it does have consequences for others.     
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 07, 2021, 10:19:51 AM
we better be enjoying it, because after that as we head into may, mid may we are heading right into summer looks like. i say we will see some 100 plus days this summer. ::blowtorch::

We could but I am starting to think the true torch straight to hades conditions may stay to our west. With that being said, there are times when it could link up with the Bermuda Ridge or if there is a strong enough Monsoon the ridge will eventually move over to our area or to the Pacific Northwest after mid to late July depending on the general pattern.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 07, 2021, 11:48:38 AM
Expanded the slight risk to about Tennessee River ... fwiw
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 07, 2021, 12:03:31 PM
Expanded the slight risk to about Tennessee River ... fwiw

yep, splits perry county in half
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 07, 2021, 12:10:46 PM
Anyone in the Memphis area concerned about what's on the map for tonight?
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 07, 2021, 12:21:19 PM
Anyone in the Memphis area concerned about what's on the map for tonight?
i would be mainly concerned about a intense line more than snything further west towards ms river. cant rule out short lived spin up...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 07, 2021, 12:33:41 PM
i would be mainly concerned about a intense line more than snything further west towards ms river. cant rule out short lived spin up...

agreed, if anything it seems a pretty good squall line will come through
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 07, 2021, 01:22:39 PM
Pretty much expecting to see a weakening line, but still take it seriously if you do go under a warning which will be the most likely in SW Tennessee.  Things do look to fall apart rather quickly once one goes go far east of US 51 especially north of I-40.   

The best tornado threat or the best shot at seeing anything significant tornado-wise is probably from about Longview, TX to about the Hot Springs to Pine Bluff area but that will be a very short window before storms line or cluster up.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 07, 2021, 02:42:24 PM
Does anybody remember the last time the atmosphere was really volatile across a wide area of the mid state for severe weather with no early inhibiting convection and things like that?

Oddly enough the last airmass I remember like that was in December 2015? But I may be missing more recent dates?
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2021, 02:46:28 PM
Consistent BN temps and drier weather look to be the rule for the back half of April. I doubt that includes a freeze- but probably does include lots of sun with 60's during the day and 40's at night.

I guess we better enjoy those temps while they last.  We all know in Tennessee that after April those kind of temperatures will only occur behind those wonderful cold fronts that just happen to make it this far south. 
 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Ultra mag 1971 on April 07, 2021, 02:55:02 PM
Storms getting going in Arkansas first tornado warning just out
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: InMemphis on April 07, 2021, 03:05:10 PM
I suspect we'll go under a Tornado Watch at some point later this afternoon or tonight in the Memphis area. It probably won't be much more than brief intense winds with heavy rain. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 07, 2021, 03:07:35 PM
interesting spc updated day 3 outlook ? I don't remember them ever doing that before?
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Navywxman on April 07, 2021, 04:00:33 PM
interesting spc updated day 3 outlook ? I don't remember them ever doing that before?
In regards to what exactly?
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 07, 2021, 04:05:01 PM
Lot of mixing out up this way with DPs. We are at 57. Started this morning at 63.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: InMemphis on April 07, 2021, 07:25:32 PM
Had some gusty winds downtown along with some heavy rain. Lightning has been pretty impressive as well. We're at the end of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Matthew on April 07, 2021, 08:19:56 PM
Maybe April will be no severe wx or outbreaks after all.  Total opposite of what many were thinking.  Wx is always opposite of what is predicted these days it seems.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 07, 2021, 08:55:00 PM
Maybe April will be no severe wx or outbreaks after all.  Total opposite of what many were thinking.  Wx is always opposite of what is predicted these days it seems.

does look a bit quiet for us the next several days
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 08, 2021, 07:04:48 AM
Maybe April will be no severe wx or outbreaks after all.  Total opposite of what many were thinking.  Wx is always opposite of what is predicted these days it seems.

The Deep South actually looks a little bit derecho ish/Memorial Day Weekish tomorrow instead of a typical spring setup. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 08, 2021, 08:03:52 AM
cannot ignore the outlined enhanced risk for tomorrow looks like a whale lol
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 08, 2021, 08:12:54 AM
cannot ignore the outlined enhanced risk for tomorrow looks like a whale lol
outlined area about as large as a whale also ... lol
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 08, 2021, 09:42:32 AM
Hey- uh- I guess no one noticed we have a TOR on a cell in Mid TN this morning.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
937 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  North central Franklin County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 945 AM CDT.
   
* At 937 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Estill Springs, or 8 miles north of Winchester,
  moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Estill Springs, Woods Reservoir and Arnold AFB.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 08, 2021, 09:49:15 AM
Hey- uh- I guess no one noticed we have a TOR on a cell in Mid TN this morning.

Just saw that a few minutes ago, it's already cancelled, but those north bama storms do look interesting
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: NismoWx on April 08, 2021, 09:52:14 AM
Just saw that a few minutes ago, it's already cancelled, but those north bama storms do look interesting
Went from HUN to OHX CWA. OHX just didn't continue it.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 08, 2021, 10:31:07 AM
cannot ignore the outlined enhanced risk for tomorrow looks like a whale lol

I saw a Facebook meme comparing it to a Goldfish lol. Yesterday's looked like a Avocado. 

Some will look like teardrops, some in the summertime especially can take on a dead tree look, and sometimes they are shaped well like certain body parts.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 08, 2021, 10:37:11 AM
I saw a Facebook meme comparing it to a Goldfish lol. Yesterday's looked like a Avocado. 

Some will look like teardrops, some in the summertime especially can take on a dead tree look, and sometimes they are shaped well like certain body parts.

this one isn't TOO far off from a body part ........
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: hastinmw on April 08, 2021, 10:59:31 AM
I am a long time lurker here and appreciate all the helpful and humorous insights this board provides. I do have a request though, My stepdaughter has an outdoor wedding planned for Saturday afternoon (4:00 pm). Can you give me any hope that I won't need to change locations?
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 08, 2021, 11:17:18 AM
I am a long time lurker here and appreciate all the helpful and humorous insights this board provides. I do have a request though, My stepdaughter has an outdoor wedding planned for Saturday afternoon (4:00 pm). Can you give me any hope that I won't need to change locations?

The text forecast from the NWS seems to hint the main action is expected before 1:00 PM, but with still a chance into the evening. There may be a break in the action around the time you're asking about, perhaps the rain will have moved out altogether. But, I'd suggest a backup plan. Ponchos for the guests just in case?

By the way, from your sig line...

Quote
I survived the Xenia, OH tornado of 1974 in a bank vault.

That's a story I'm sure we would like to hear some time.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 08, 2021, 12:13:21 PM
interesting that the nam brings a lot of cape up here for a few hours with next event??
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: hastinmw on April 08, 2021, 12:31:26 PM
The text forecast from the NWS seems to hint the main action is expected before 1:00 PM, but with still a chance into the evening. There may be a break in the action around the time you're asking about, perhaps the rain will have moved out altogether. But, I'd suggest a backup plan. Ponchos for the guests just in case?

By the way, from your sig line...

That's a story I'm sure we would like to hear some time.

I did suggest a slip and slide to my wife, but I got the look ...

- thanks for the update.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Vols1 on April 08, 2021, 01:04:17 PM
interesting that the nam brings a lot of cape up here for a few hours with next event??
Tomorrow or Saturday?
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 08, 2021, 01:31:01 PM
i think tomorrows threat could over preform , just my opinion , with so much cape available across the south a derecho type event with some spin ups will be possible imo
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on April 08, 2021, 08:40:02 PM
I guess it’s my fault for not paying more attention, but I really thought today was supposed to be a washout. It barely rained and was actually beautiful all day. GFS says flash flooding Saturday. Let’s see.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2021, 08:04:07 AM
Interesting over last several years how many severe events are just to our south by about 100 miles or so.....mid state is rarely in the bullseye of significant weather lately ( as far a forecasted events go)
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 09, 2021, 08:04:41 AM
Jinx! I was just posting.

Anyone going to storm chase today? Deep South looks like they're in the Red Zone.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2021, 08:11:47 AM
Jinx! I was just posting.

Anyone going to storm chase today? Deep South looks like they're in the Red Zone.

i wouldn't chase this scenario , looks like derecho type potential....could get some great pics of shelf clouds though?
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 09, 2021, 11:30:18 AM
Jinx! I was just posting.

Anyone going to storm chase today? Deep South looks like they're in the Red Zone.

It would be a nice day to see some shelf clouds and structure. Outside of Pine Bluff and points to the south and southeast across that portion of Arkansas, the chase terrain is about as unfavorable as it comes for the Eastern USA (outside of West NC or the middle of West Virginia).   

People really don't realize the existence of the Ouachita Mountains in Eastern Oklahoma/Western Arkansas and how truly unfavorable that terrain is even for normal driving nevermind chasing.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Matthew on April 09, 2021, 07:44:07 PM
April is looking quiet nice with no severe wx on the horizon and just some nice April showers.  Perfect temps in my opinion.  It’s nice to be having seasons lately.  Another quiet April void of any major severe outbreaks could be unfolding.  Fall was actually nice also.  Let’s keep these seasons please.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 09, 2021, 08:03:16 PM
Doubt we escape the Month without least one big outbreak ...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Matthew on April 09, 2021, 10:38:32 PM
Doubt we escape the Month without least one big outbreak ...

1 is much better than what was being predicted.  This is turning into complete opposite thankfully.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Matthew on April 09, 2021, 10:40:46 PM
What is people’s thoughts about the volcano that has and is erupting on St. Vincent in the Caribbean.  Will it affect our wx or hurricane season going forward? 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Navywxman on April 10, 2021, 08:32:13 AM
What is people’s thoughts about the volcano that has and is erupting on St. Vincent in the Caribbean.  Will it affect our wx or hurricane season going forward?
For overall weather, no impacts unless it becomes a massive eruption. Hurricane season, only if it lasts into that period since it's only April 10th.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 10, 2021, 09:11:24 AM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

If the pattern above verifies then that will shut down severe weather for a little bit and probably till the very end of April.  As previously discussed that is also really really bad for Utah and Western Colorado and their drought situation which is likely to turn dire.   

Now it should be noted that some models are weaker with the western ridge which may allow for some southeast ridging to come along so the 8-14 day outlook is a bit uncertain. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 10, 2021, 09:13:17 AM
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West

It has the looks of a bad to potentially record-setting wildfire season out West.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 10, 2021, 09:34:37 AM
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West

It has the looks of a bad to potentially record-setting wildfire season out West.

...as if last year (and recent years in general) wasn’t bad enough.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on April 10, 2021, 12:30:33 PM
Gulf coast convection really zapped the moisture for us today. Under 0.10” of rain. And that’s a good thing. We are still pretty waterlogged from March.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: JayCee on April 10, 2021, 02:03:09 PM
Just started raining here.  No thunder or storms, just moderate rain.  Downsloping will probably keep amounts well below an inch here. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Curt on April 10, 2021, 03:59:19 PM
Sure looks like a spectacular week with sunny skies and highs in the 60’s to around 70 and lows in the 40’s. Sign me up. Maybe a bit of a northwest flow next weekend.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Matthew on April 10, 2021, 05:14:28 PM
Definitely not the amount of rain expected thankfully.  Maybe we can have a cooler than normal summer.  Seems nature is doing opposite of what is predicted.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 10, 2021, 05:17:50 PM
Definitely not the amount of rain expected thankfully.  Maybe we can have a cooler than normal summer.  Seems nature is doing opposite of what is predicted.

I don't see us having a cooler than normal summer, but I don't see us being in the center of the frying pan either like I once thought we would be earlier this year.  That dishonor is probably going to be centered on the Rocky Mountains over towards the High Plains.  We will have our visits from the SE Ridge and times where the Sonora and Bermuda form a super ridge to fry everyone, but I feel like we are going to be in a better spot than say areas like Denver, Salt Lake City, or El Paso this year.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 10, 2021, 07:25:47 PM
I don't see us having a cooler than normal summer, but I don't see us being in the center of the frying pan either like I once thought we would be earlier this year.  That dishonor is probably going to be centered on the Rocky Mountains over towards the High Plains.  We will have our visits from the SE Ridge and times where the Sonora and Bermuda form a super ridge to fry everyone, but I feel like we are going to be in a better spot than say areas like Denver, Salt Lake City, or El Paso this year.
its all about the humidity here anyways... areas like you mention experience drier heat... it actually feel cooler there than it will here when you throw the ole humidity in here ... we will get a combinatori of both heat humidity here this summer
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 10, 2021, 08:13:33 PM
its all about the humidity here anyways... areas like you mention experience drier heat... it actually feel cooler there than it will here when you throw the ole humidity in here ... we will get a combinatori of both heat humidity here this summer

Either can't breathe right because it is hot and humid or can't breathe right because it is hot, dry, and there is smoke in the air.  It is a pick your poison situation but I would probably give the edge to humidity over smoke (I'm sure those in East TN that had to deal with that in 2016 probably will agree).   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: NismoWx on April 11, 2021, 09:48:43 AM
Either can't breathe right because it is hot and humid or can't breathe right because it is hot, dry, and there is smoke in the air.  It is a pick your poison situation but I would probably give the edge to humidity over smoke (I'm sure those in East TN that had to deal with that in 2016 probably will agree).
I can't breathe because #allergies..

But I'll take allergies over humidity any day.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: JayCee on April 11, 2021, 04:01:57 PM
I don't see us having a cooler than normal summer, but I don't see us being in the center of the frying pan either like I once thought we would be earlier this year.  That dishonor is probably going to be centered on the Rocky Mountains over towards the High Plains.  We will have our visits from the SE Ridge and times where the Sonora and Bermuda form a super ridge to fry everyone, but I feel like we are going to be in a better spot than say areas like Denver, Salt Lake City, or El Paso this year.

Makes sense.  Most of those areas are already in some sort of drought conditions.  Usually that means more heat and dryness as the drought feeds on itself creating more high pressure.  A high pressure there would put us in a more northwest flow with possible derechos or strong storms from time to time.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: JayCee on April 11, 2021, 06:35:54 PM
Either can't breathe right because it is hot and humid or can't breathe right because it is hot, dry, and there is smoke in the air.  It is a pick your poison situation but I would probably give the edge to humidity over smoke (I'm sure those in East TN that had to deal with that in 2016 probably will agree).

I'll gladly take humidity over smoke.  ::sneezy::
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 12, 2021, 02:05:37 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/4c9rz.jpg)
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2021, 02:10:44 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/4c9rz.jpg)

lol no significant weather to talk about :)

Seems to me we are close to having everything being ready to shift to plains and midwest sooner than normal this year for severe weather
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 12, 2021, 02:51:34 PM
lol no significant weather to talk about :)

Seems to me we are close to having everything being ready to shift to plains and midwest sooner than normal this year for severe weather

That's a sense I have as well. Given some fairly extended dry spells in March and April (punctuated by an extremely WET period in between in late March), I hope we're not potentially evolving into patterns that could lead to drought further down the road. We are no where near that at this point though.  I suspect we'll have at least another wet period this spring before the summer pattern sets in later. That could be where any additional severe chances occur if they do in this immediate area.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2021, 03:01:01 PM
That's a sense I have as well. Given some fairly extended dry spells in March and April (punctuated by an extremely WET period in between in late March), I hope we're not potentially evolving into patterns that could lead to drought further down the road. We are no where near that at this point though.  I suspect we'll have at least another wet period this spring before the summer pattern sets in later. That could be where any additional severe chances occur if they do in this immediate area.

I hear ya, technically we should be in peak season now until end of month and as of now nothing on horizon, even with what we have had so far we have yet to have a truly charged atmosphere yet for severe weather which is surprising , dew points barely hitting 58-60 is just not prime for severe weather
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on April 12, 2021, 06:06:45 PM
I hear ya, technically we should be in peak season now until end of month and as of now nothing on horizon, even with what we have had so far we have yet to have a truly charged atmosphere yet for severe weather which is surprising , dew points barely hitting 58-60 is just not prime for severe weather
It’s absolutely prime for enjoying the outdoors though. This weather has been fabulous.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on April 12, 2021, 09:16:45 PM
It’s absolutely prime for enjoying the outdoors though. This weather has been fabulous.
Spent our entire evening on the patio tonight. Our whole dinner was cooked on the grill, we kept a fire in our chiminea, and had a friend join us for dinner and drinks. It doesn't get any better this time of year.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 13, 2021, 04:10:41 AM
Spent our entire evening on the patio tonight. Our whole dinner was cooked on the grill, we kept a fire in our chiminea, and had a friend join us for dinner and drinks. It doesn't get any better this time of year.

I would spend more time outside but I am getting drilled by allergies and full-blown sinus infections related to them which is limiting my time outside.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 13, 2021, 08:00:30 AM
It’s absolutely prime for enjoying the outdoors though. This weather has been fabulous.

you got that right, it's a nice time of year to enjoy before the 68-75 dew points show up :)
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 13, 2021, 08:10:44 AM
Might be flirting with a light frost next week. Mid 30s showing up on models.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 13, 2021, 08:30:29 AM
you got that right, it's a nice time of year to enjoy before the 68-75 dew points show up :)
why can’t we not get dew points in late March and April in low 70s ...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 13, 2021, 08:51:24 AM
why can’t we not get dew points in late March and April in low 70s ...

i prefer to never get high dew points, i hate how it feels lol....i know it produces active weather to track but i just hate how oppressive it feels

I will say summer night time truly ISOLATED thunderstorms are my favorite, you can see the lightning light up the entire thunderstorm cloud from 40-50 miles away and its beautiful!
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Curt on April 13, 2021, 09:41:26 AM
Might be flirting with a light frost next week. Mid 30s showing up on models.

BN temps all the way through the end of April it does appear now. Much of the state looks dry with pretty stable air masses dominating the weather- lots of 60's/40's combos with low humidity. Yes all day.
Title: Re: April 2021i
Post by: Charles L. on April 13, 2021, 10:13:30 AM
BN temps all the way through the end of April it does appear now. Much of the state looks dry with pretty stable air masses dominating the weather- lots of 60's/40's combos with low humidity. Yes all day.

I’d take this weather year round in a heartbeat
Title: Re: April 2021i
Post by: gcbama on April 13, 2021, 10:18:20 AM
I’d take this weather year round in a heartbeat

I like that we get all 4 seasons here
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 13, 2021, 01:27:50 PM
Severe season:



cricket


cricket
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 13, 2021, 01:29:51 PM
I do have a question.

Are severe weather seasons typically cyclical ?  The 90's and 2000's featured many classic supercell outbreaks with strong and even violent long track tornadoes in the area, usually several tornadic supercells per outbreak in the mid state.

However in the past decade I do not remember anything coming close to that type of an event for the mid state as most outbreaks have been about 50 miles south of the TN border in the 2010's. It seems the big instability has a hard time getting north of the TN river area a LOT, as well as morning convection happening as well....I just do not remember that happening very much for our big outbreaks of the past....just interesting to me

the big ones of the top of my head that I was here for, 95, 98, veterans day outbreak, nov 2005, mufreesboro tornado outbreak, and super tuesday, all before 2010 and all supercell outbreaks which is what i am talking about
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Eric on April 13, 2021, 01:48:41 PM
I do have a question.

Are severe weather seasons typically cyclical ?  The 90's and 2000's featured many classic supercell outbreaks with strong and even violent long track tornadoes in the area, usually several tornadic supercells per outbreak in the mid state.

However in the past decade I do not remember anything coming close to that type of an event for the mid state as most outbreaks have been about 50 miles south of the TN border in the 2010's. It seems the big instability has a hard time getting north of the TN river area a LOT, as well as morning convection happening as well....I just do not remember that happening very much for our big outbreaks of the past....just interesting to me

the big ones of the top of my head that I was here for, 95, 98, veterans day outbreak, nov 2005, mufreesboro tornado outbreak, and super tuesday, all before 2010 and all supercell outbreaks which is what i am talking about

March 3 2012 would've been disastrous if not for mixing and LCLs shooting up.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 13, 2021, 01:51:50 PM
Severe season:



cricket


cricket
it will close with a bang ...
Title: Re: April 2021i
Post by: wmp600 on April 13, 2021, 02:10:45 PM
I’d take this weather year round in a heartbeat
Me too!
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Eric on April 13, 2021, 02:12:27 PM
it will close with a bang ...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/4v2pTGw7t5yUw/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 13, 2021, 02:47:37 PM
March 3 2012 would've been disastrous if not for mixing and LCLs shooting up.

2011 would have been a disaster too, but it did not happen either...just interesting that past decade it has just not happened here
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on April 13, 2021, 04:27:43 PM
2011 would have been a disaster too, but it did not happen either...just interesting that past decade it has just not happened here
2011 was a disaster for half the state.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Matthew on April 13, 2021, 09:23:54 PM
Wx is truly amazing.  It will never be predicted.  I think we all have learned to expect the unexpected and the opposite of what analogs say.  So this coming winter is going to be blazing hot.  No snow. 😉🤣.  Oh this summer hot and dry also.  😉😉. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Matthew on April 13, 2021, 09:30:02 PM
it will close with a bang ...

Bruce I’m sorry not sorry severe season is vanilla.  I will take vanilla for spring every year. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 14, 2021, 08:09:13 AM
2011 was a disaster for half the state.

East Tennessee yes, my post specifically was about the mid state though

I know we had several weak tornadoes in eastern middle, i am talking more the long track strong tornado outbreaks if that makes sense :)
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 14, 2021, 08:09:54 AM
Wx is truly amazing.  It will never be predicted.  I think we all have learned to expect the unexpected and the opposite of what analogs say.  So this coming winter is going to be blazing hot.  No snow. 😉🤣.  Oh this summer hot and dry also.  😉😉.

Agreed, analogs imo are nothing i pay attention to honestly
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 14, 2021, 08:27:50 AM
Bruce I’m sorry not sorry severe season is vanilla.  I will take vanilla for spring every year.
you get some  sprinkles added to that vanilla before this spring season over ...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 14, 2021, 08:45:38 AM
you get some  sprinkles added to that vanilla before this spring season over ...

technically i don't say goodbye to tornadic severe season until mid may, 1995 and 2003 taught me that...gotta keep eyes open until then, and then it changes to qlcs season and pop ups
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 14, 2021, 08:54:50 AM
technically i don't say goodbye to tornadic severe season until mid may, 1995 and 2003 taught me that...gotta keep eyes open until then, and then it changes to qlcs season and pop ups
you remember the May 25th high risk day 2011?... the atmosphere became just to capped off . The dews mixed out . That day we had a loaded gun sounding ...
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 14, 2021, 09:54:53 AM
you remember the May 25th high risk day 2011?... the atmosphere became just to capped off . The dews mixed out . That day we had a loaded gun sounding ...

yep, big threats in mid may are not uncommon here
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 14, 2021, 05:45:41 PM
you remember the May 25th high risk day 2011?... the atmosphere became just to capped off . The dews mixed out . That day we had a loaded gun sounding ...

That was one of the scariest days as far as absolute potential was concerned for the KY/TN border area.  You essentially had March/Early April dynamics and shear with late May instability.  Thankfully the LCL's and Mixing that also saved us on our next High Risk came through on what could have been a horrible day.  I have only felt that dreadful fear on a few other setups since tracking these starting in 2006-07 (e.g. 2/5/08, 4/10/08, 4/27/11, 3/2/12).  Thankfully 3 out of 5 didn't verify to that level (3/2 did but not quite to that level locally) but of course we know what the other 2 did. 
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 14, 2021, 05:49:27 PM
3/25/21 was pretty darn close in impeding doom feeling the night before with its modeled setup especially along and south of I-40.  Thankfully a slightly weaker system pushed further to the southeast than expected helped out quite a bit.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 14, 2021, 05:54:03 PM
Back to current weather

The MJO is looking to trend more favorable for Bruce-like weather and we got the subtropical jet cranking.

I still say we will have a bumpy ride somewhere in the 4-25 to 5-15 timeframe before we end up with our summer position ridge somewhere centered out west or in the central USA.  I made the suggestion that severe weather will be like winter weather was this past season in that it will seem calm then you get it all in 2-3 weeks, and that may come true here.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 14, 2021, 07:38:03 PM
Back to current weather

The MJO is looking to trend more favorable for Bruce-like weather and we got the subtropical jet cranking.

I still say we will have a bumpy ride somewhere in the 4-25 to 5-15 timeframe before we end up with our summer position ridge somewhere centered out west or in the central USA.  I made the suggestion that severe weather will be like winter weather was this past season in that it will seem calm then you get it all in 2-3 weeks, and that may come true here.
yes been noticing that myself... like i told matthew, get ready for some sprinkles on his vanilla flavor ice cream. lol liking look just down the road. there is also another kelvin wave fixing to get active in the pacific.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Crockett on April 14, 2021, 08:26:01 PM
In order for you West Tennesseans to get the 60s you crave so badly, we almost always have to wind up in the 50s here on the northern plateau...which we're looking at several days in the next week or so. As retaliation, I hope we have lots of days in the 90s up here this summer.  >:D
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Curt on April 14, 2021, 08:51:34 PM
In order for you West Tennesseans to get the 60s you crave so badly, we almost always have to wind up in the 50s here on the northern plateau...which we're looking at several days in the next week or so. As retaliation, I hope we have lots of days in the 90s up here this summer.  >:D
(https://media4.giphy.com/media/VqPpOjb1rOBBS/giphy.gif)

You knew that would illicit a response from me.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Crockett on April 14, 2021, 09:20:22 PM
(https://media4.giphy.com/media/VqPpOjb1rOBBS/giphy.gif)

You knew that would illicit a response from me.

A good fisherman knows what kind of bait works best in the area he's fishing.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 15, 2021, 07:59:56 AM
That was one of the scariest days as far as absolute potential was concerned for the KY/TN border area.  You essentially had March/Early April dynamics and shear with late May instability.  Thankfully the LCL's and Mixing that also saved us on our next High Risk came through on what could have been a horrible day.  I have only felt that dreadful fear on a few other setups since tracking these starting in 2006-07 (e.g. 2/5/08, 4/10/08, 4/27/11, 3/2/12).  Thankfully 3 out of 5 didn't verify to that level (3/2 did but not quite to that level locally) but of course we know what the other 2 did.

The most nervous i ever was was the 2006 outbreak in april, 60% tornado probs over my area tends to get you nervous lol
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 15, 2021, 08:38:08 AM
gotta say these cool crisp mornings we have had sure are beautiful
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on April 16, 2021, 09:31:46 AM
Snow flurries Wednesday per GFS. I’m supposed to be driving my car on a racetrack for the first time in my life. Going to be interesting with cold pavement and cold tires.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 16, 2021, 09:38:08 AM
Snow flurries Wednesday per GFS. I’m supposed to be driving my car on a racetrack for the first time in my life. Going to be interesting with cold pavement and cold tires.

Yeah, looks like some 30s for lows again. We're just not able to get past the risk of frost and freeze just yet.

This is dogwood winter now since the dogwoods are in full bloom. Next week might really be the continuation of this cold pattern since there isn't much of a warm-up in between. It's certainly a reinforcing shot of cold air on the maps. I suppose it might be locust winter next. Blackberry winter should be after that in early May. Surely, we'll be done with frost and freeze by then, but there was a May freeze last year, so we can't rule that out either.

Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 16, 2021, 10:12:34 AM
23 years ago today we witnessed one of our worst weather events and our only "recorded" F5
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on April 16, 2021, 10:35:29 AM
I sure remember that day well. I guess it's the only time I've viewed a tornado, or at least a rotating wall cloud, with my own eyes.

I was on the campus of Lipscomb University and watched that rotating mass move across downtown.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: gcbama on April 16, 2021, 10:50:00 AM
I sure remember that day well. I guess it's the only time I've viewed a tornado, or at least a rotating wall cloud, with my own eyes.

I was on the campus of Lipscomb University and watched that rotating mass move across downtown.

I have seen two, the scariest was i just happened as a teenager to be riding to my uncles house in southern birmingham metro in april 1998, It was lightning like crazy and as we passed south through malfuntcion junction into birmingham there was a LOT of lightning to the west, I saw in the distance (4-5 miles) the upper half of what was the F5 in oak grove region lit up in the lightning, i was TERRIFIED, and we booked it south in a hurry.
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Clay on April 17, 2021, 12:44:42 AM
I sure remember that day well. I guess it's the only time I've viewed a tornado, or at least a rotating wall cloud, with my own eyes.

I was on the campus of Lipscomb University and watched that rotating mass move across downtown.
Ahh those views from the 8th floor of highrise. Remember all too well.  ;)
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on April 17, 2021, 08:51:05 AM
Moved post to appropriate thread- delete
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: StormNine on April 17, 2021, 12:54:55 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWDCszNS2dg

Some of our concerns heading into the Summer especially the Western and Central USA.   
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 17, 2021, 02:40:41 PM
Today’s euro starting look interesting ... but it’s day 10  ::coffee::
Title: Re: April 2021
Post by: Bruce on April 18, 2021, 07:23:33 AM
0z euro still holding on to a severe wx setup ...longer range ... keep eye on bout the 4 27 timeframe ... date ring a bell ...