Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Thundersnow on March 23, 2021, 05:08:34 AM

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 23, 2021, 05:08:34 AM
 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day3otlk_20210323_0730.html (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day3otlk_20210323_0730.html)

SPC is coming in fairly bullish on Thursday’s risk. Similar placement as last week’s risk, although I will say it includes more of TN than last week’s, including hatching on the map.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day3prob_20210323_0730_prt.gif)

Quote
Day 3 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A potential outbreak of severe storms including strong tornadoes,
   large hail and damaging wind will exist Thursday afternoon into the
   overnight across a portion of the lower Mississippi Valley and
   Southeast States.

I guess we’ll see how this one works out. 

OHX is emphasizing a heavy rain concern.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 23, 2021, 06:00:04 AM
If the nam is right going be a large outbreak from Lower parts Ohio valley down central ms Alabama . But may be bit bullish at this range .
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 23, 2021, 07:29:43 AM
Please, no. I'm moving Thursday and driving a 15' UHaul down 24E over Monteagle in the afternoon.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 23, 2021, 08:19:24 AM
well seems like spc extended risk much farther north as of right now than last event, hatched area all the way up into extreme southern Kentucky, yet again will all depend on a possible morning rain shield hindering warm front it looks like. If that Low pressure stays closer to St louis region I think it "could" be trouble for us....
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 23, 2021, 08:46:32 AM
Please, no. I'm moving Thursday and driving a 15' UHaul down 24E over Monteagle in the afternoon.

You'll be alright. The roughest part is on the S/SE slope. Might get a good cross gust at the bottom of the mountain, but I've driven a semi down it mannnnnny times. The wind isn't that bad until it flattens out.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 23, 2021, 08:49:49 AM
Now this one looks more promising for storm chasers. If we can avoid a morning rain shield, game on.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 23, 2021, 10:14:32 AM
interesting silence since entire midstate per spc is under hatched risk...wonder if last event produced apathy
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 23, 2021, 10:23:34 AM
interesting silence since entire midstate per spc is under hatched risk...wonder if last event produced apathy
I'm waiting for better model data before I start sounding the alarm.

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 23, 2021, 10:26:12 AM
I'm waiting for better model data before I start sounding the alarm.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

I am not sounding any alarm , just love to see discussion on here from people smarter than me :)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 23, 2021, 10:26:44 AM
interesting silence since entire midstate per spc is under hatched risk...wonder if last event produced apathy

No, I think it is just people taking a wait and see approach.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 23, 2021, 10:32:55 AM
i found it interesting BMX seemed to lean more toward higher end threat being north of I-20/59
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 23, 2021, 10:34:13 AM
Outside of the NAM (which tends to be too bullish) I don’t see any data that impressive for severe chances for this state at least. Not that it can’t turn around and SPC be onto something…. But I’m fairly confused by the Enhanced Risk right now….
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 23, 2021, 10:43:06 AM
Outside of the NAM (which tends to be too bullish) I don’t see any data that impressive for severe chances for this state at least. Not that it can’t turn around and SPC be onto something…. But I’m fairly confused by the Enhanced Risk right now….

Watch this event be the one that over preforms when it wasn't expected unlike the last event, wouldn't that be typical lol
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 23, 2021, 10:58:27 AM
it seems gfs is now on a northwest trend toward euro
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 23, 2021, 11:14:11 AM
Outside of the NAM (which tends to be too bullish) I don’t see any data that impressive for severe chances for this state at least. Not that it can’t turn around and SPC be onto something…. But I’m fairly confused by the Enhanced Risk right now….
lets get that look on nam tonite and tomorrow mornings run then maybe it’s on to something . Euro did have a healthier warm sector.  Gfs was being less aggressor on thermals and dynamics
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Flash on March 23, 2021, 11:33:34 AM
No, I think it is just people taking a wait and see approach.

I agree. Too far ahead of the most deterministic mesoscale features we just can't see yet.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 23, 2021, 11:42:11 AM
I agree. Too far ahead of the most deterministic mesoscale features we just can't see yet.

of course i agree..... the gfs just showed a northwest trend recently LOW nearing closer to paducah now as opposed to florence alabama, looks like trend is more towards euro for now.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 23, 2021, 11:45:29 AM
of course i agree..... the gfs just showed a northwest trend recently LOW nearing closer to paducah now as opposed to florence alabama, looks like trend is more towards euro for now.
count the ukie on nw trends also ...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Beth on March 23, 2021, 11:50:41 AM
Crossing my fingers for good weather on Saturday. Having a big Birthday party for my granddaughter.  Renting a big obstacle course inflatable too. So far showing slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 77
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 23, 2021, 12:09:59 PM
I have been reading where it appears the morning convection will clear out quickly and LLJ is much more pronounced even over TN.  Add in the DP around 65. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 23, 2021, 12:22:59 PM
I'm having more confidence in this system as an overall setup versus last week, with shear parameters being much better and a more stout warm sector as a whole.

Obviously, I have reservations until day-of with regard to microscale.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: andyhb on March 23, 2021, 01:14:10 PM
Biggest question for TN with this one is of course the warm frontal progression. If it gets parts of the state into the warm sector... yikes.

I'm not sure I'd trust it getting stalled really far south given the intensity of the low level flow (which is considerably more than last Wednesday). There will definitely be some stunting as per usual, especially if there's MCS activity, but there's the potential for rapid recovery.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 23, 2021, 03:30:36 PM
18z HRRR is just nasty for MS/AL.  Only goes out to 1pm but we're free and clear of any crapvection, Tds already into the 60s and an increasing LLJ.  No instability, though.  0z HRRR will start telling the whole story tonight.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 23, 2021, 03:34:37 PM
nam 3k looks kind of nasty from nashville southward, also very very little crapvection early in day, very scattered crapvection

also showing much more discrete cell look than last event, a lot of space between those afternoon cells
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 23, 2021, 05:06:00 PM
nam 3k looks kind of nasty from nashville southward, also very very little crapvection early in day, very scattered crapvection

also showing much more discrete cell look than last event, a lot of space between those afternoon cells

If you can build enough of a CAP after any early convection then that will take this threat to the next level.  That will allow for the warm front to likely clear most if not all of Middle TN, allow for convection to stay cellular longer and be able to capitalize on the lower-level jet as the system continues to deepen.

There is a pretty fine line here between not much and major tornado outbreak in this neck of the woods with this setup. 

Could also see a QLCS/even Serial Derecho setup in the Lower Ohio Valley with this right along the Low-Pressure system depending on if enough instability can make it to the triple point zone.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 23, 2021, 05:11:08 PM
We are just asking for trouble if we continue to see these broad-based ski-slope-style troughs this spring.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 23, 2021, 05:51:06 PM
this one to me seems to have a bit more potential for the mid state than the last event.

If the low tracks the way the euro is showing it looks kind of classic, of course with every midstate event that warm front placement is very key. I am seeing most models showing 63-66 dew points which is plenty . A lot of other ingredients are there as well, there is more potential with this one for us than the last event imo

also gfs just spit out pds tor sounding for my area
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 23, 2021, 06:32:12 PM
latest gfs seems be holding to ever so slightly northern trend with the slp crossing over se. mo. into southern illinois... , while pressure keeps dropping as it rides  off to the northeast... winds are backed nicely... just got little jaded after last weeks system. so i am kind of playing a laid back approach for now which is not like me, lol.  this pattern keeps up this spring it will be just matter time for the classic mid south severe setup ::coffee::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 23, 2021, 08:58:24 PM
HRRR looks scary at hour 44-46
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 23, 2021, 09:03:08 PM
HRRR looks scary at hour 44-46

It damń sure does to me. That is definitely a tornado-producing supercell that would damage my home at 5pm.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 23, 2021, 09:22:40 PM
It damń sure does to me. That is definitely a tornado-producing supercell that would damage my home at 5pm.

PDS TOR signatures showing up for us now man
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 23, 2021, 09:25:53 PM
Wouldn't be surprised if the SPC went with a Day 2 MDT across portions of the ArkLaMiss tonight/tomorrow. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 01:11:33 AM
They are still updating but Eric spot on.  Moderate has been added with it appears Memphis in it.  Enhanced also expanded to Nashville and slight expanded.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 24, 2021, 05:11:58 AM
The 6Z HRRR would take a significant tornado threat all the way to US 62 in Kentucky. 

The fail potential here is still the cap is weak after the morning storms and a bunch of storms go at once turning it into more of a hail/heavy rain fest, but the trends are unfortunately not trending that way.   

The trough is too broad-based to allow for significant squall lines so the storm mode for this will be supercells or supercell to multicell clusters instead of linear modes. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 08:06:58 AM
HRRR looks quite scary, kidney beans everywhere
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Lcwthrnut on March 24, 2021, 08:17:23 AM
Is this site dead??
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2021, 08:38:19 AM
Some short range models
Now showing tornadic super cells all way to southern Illinois . Particularly hrr hi res model...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 08:41:29 AM
Is this site dead??

ikr , a "possible" supercell outbreak and its crickets this am
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 08:42:42 AM
Some short range models
Now showing tornadic super cells all way to southern Illinois . Particularly hrr hi res model...

HRRR shows pretty much a supercell event , it doesn't merge into a line until well east of I-65, pds tornado soundings everywhere, high STP values north of I-40
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2021, 08:47:48 AM
HRRR shows pretty much a supercell event , it doesn't merge into a line until well east of I-65, pds tornado soundings everywhere, high STP values north of I-40
latest hrrr 12z pretty much holds serve .
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 09:15:42 AM
Is this site dead??

Really the same as the lead-up in the couple of days before the system last week... long stretches without a whole lot to discuss between model runs. Models are pretty much painting a volatile setup, but we're in a wait n' see mode (a lot of us anyway) to observe how things unfold the day of.

I think it's a different kind of "dynamic" from a winter weather system where we can discuss big differences made by model trends one direction or the other. In the case with severe weather, you have the background setup, and it's all in what unfolds tomorrow.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 09:19:42 AM
Uh...

[attachimg=1]
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 09:20:31 AM
nam 3k showing scattered supercells as well in afternoon, as well as a kinked line coming through
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 09:21:06 AM
Uh...

(Attachment Link)

yes that is a very scary look isn't it :(
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2021, 09:33:30 AM
Uh...

(Attachment Link)
That's... I...

Wow.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Lcwthrnut on March 24, 2021, 10:02:53 AM
Really the same as the lead-up in the couple of days before the system last week... long stretches without a whole lot to discuss between model runs. Models are pretty much painting a volatile setup, but we're in a wait n' see mode (a lot of us anyway) to observe how things unfold the day of.

I think it's a different kind of "dynamic" from a winter weather system where we can discuss big differences made by model trends one direction or the other. In the case with severe weather, you have the background setup, and it's all in what unfolds tomorrow.

Understandable. Just saying since yesterday the short range models have been painting an ugly picture for our area and the discussion has been minimal. Last week we were 19 pages deep of discussion for what was always a threat south of our area. Just don’t want the causal lurker to not think this threat isn’t real cause latest model runs are nasty!

Carry on!
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 24, 2021, 10:11:11 AM
Tbh, my concerned level for this system versus the last one is INCREDIBLY higher. Wouldnt shock me at all to see that MDT risk expanded northward
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 10:17:43 AM
Tbh, my concerned level for this system versus the last one is INCREDIBLY higher. Wouldnt shock me at all to see that MDT risk expanded northward

very much so
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 10:19:21 AM
I think the area definitely needs to be paying attention to this.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 10:21:03 AM
Understandable. Just saying since yesterday the short range models have been painting an ugly picture for our area and the discussion has been minimal. Last week we were 19 pages deep of discussion for what was always a threat south of our area. Just don’t want the causal lurker to not think this threat isn’t real cause latest model runs are nasty!

Carry on!

I agree , we are very close to the event and short range nam 3k and hrrr are showing supercells and a large warm sector with HIGH stp values, this event has much more potential than the last event
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: wfrogge on March 24, 2021, 10:30:08 AM
Understandable. Just saying since yesterday the short range models have been painting an ugly picture for our area and the discussion has been minimal. Last week we were 19 pages deep of discussion for what was always a threat south of our area. Just don’t want the causal lurker to not think this threat isn’t real cause latest model runs are nasty!

Carry on!

Well if it helps I find the morning CAMs overly concerning for TN now.  Don't be surprised if the new Day 2 grows to include Nashville in the MDT risk.

 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 24, 2021, 10:31:11 AM
Understandable. Just saying since yesterday the short range models have been painting an ugly picture for our area and the discussion has been minimal. Last week we were 19 pages deep of discussion for what was always a threat south of our area. Just don’t want the causal lurker to not think this threat isn’t real cause latest model runs are nasty!

Carry on!
My caveat to that is that a casual lurker should also look at the true professionals (SPC, NWS, etc.) because while there are some experts that actually do forecasting (myself, Andy, & a few others), the experts put out materials that are used by a lot more people versus on here.

I'll be on vacation later today and not as readily available to access data & such.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2021, 10:31:49 AM
The problem is, people around Mid TN will ignore it because last week was a "bust." I started making my rounds on social media last night, hoping maybe my friends/family might listen to me if they're discounting the NWS. Unrealistic, I know, but I have to try.

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2021, 10:34:13 AM
Bottom line....

...I'm concerned.  Much more so than last event. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 24, 2021, 10:36:59 AM
Whoa


I'm 23 now, but will I live to see 24?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 10:38:54 AM
I just hope apathy has not set in for the mid state.....i don't think we have had a multiple supercell "potential" threat at a time in a few years across the mid state
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2021, 10:39:58 AM
Whoa


I'm 23 now, but will I live to see 24?

The way things are going, I don't know.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 10:43:37 AM
The I-40 corridor from Nashville to Cookeville at least I would hope take it seriously since last year is still fresh.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 24, 2021, 10:44:34 AM
The way things are going, I don't know.

Been spendin' most our lives livin' in the twister's paradise
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 24, 2021, 11:48:57 AM
Gotta love model solutions ranging from a small outbreak up to 4/3-4/1974 only farther south & west.  ::coffee::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 11:50:02 AM
Gotta love model solutions ranging from a small outbreak up to 4/3-4/1974 only farther south & west.  ::coffee::

So looking like the majority of severe wx is south of middle TN?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 11:53:39 AM
So looking like the majority of severe wx is south of middle TN?

no...potential is high here as well matthew, its boom or bust but short range HRRR and 3k Nam models leaning toward boom
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 24, 2021, 12:00:41 PM
So looking like the majority of severe wx is south of middle TN?
No, the latter reference was talking about taking the entire scope of the 1974 outbreak and shifting it a little more south & west. Look at the map, because middle TN would be rock solid center for it like that. I'm NOT saying that's what'll happen, but that's upper-end ceiling for the event potential.

Like I've said, models are great to watch, but I'm much more concerned with potential capping leaving or loading the potential warm sector with crap-vection that tampers everything down. At this point, folks need to be prepared & aware, but that's on them personally. Short-term issues will make or break this more than likely.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 12:03:36 PM
Thank you for updates.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 12:44:41 PM
No, the latter reference was talking about taking the entire scope of the 1974 outbreak and shifting it a little more south & west. Look at the map, because middle TN would be rock solid center for it like that. I'm NOT saying that's what'll happen, but that's upper-end ceiling for the event potential.

Like I've said, models are great to watch, but I'm much more concerned with potential capping leaving or loading the potential warm sector with crap-vection that tampers everything down. At this point, folks need to be prepared & aware, but that's on them personally. Short-term issues will make or break this more than likely.

Eh- thanks for the candid thoughts.

So, it sounds like we need to pull for the usual convection to overwork the sector and limit the potential of this thing.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 12:47:23 PM
Update... Moderate Risk now shifted over much of Middle TN, up past the I-24 corridor...

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif)

Start warning those you care about to be aware.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Sbeagles on March 24, 2021, 12:47:40 PM
Pretty much all of Middle Tn and majority of West Tn is now moderate
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 12:56:35 PM
Text:

Quote
   Day 2 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
   SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The potential for an outbreak of severe storms including several
   long-track strong tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and
   severe/destructive winds, will exist Thursday into Thursday evening
   across a portion of the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley,
   and Southeast.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough with attendant 70-100 kt+ mid-level jet will
   eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the lower/mid MS
   Valley on Thursday, and continue over the OH Valley and lower Great
   Lakes region Thursday night. At the surface, a weak low over
   northeast TX at the beginning of the period Thursday morning is
   expected to likewise develop northeastward to the mid MS Valley
   through the day while deepening. A warm front attendant to this
   cyclone will likely lift northward across the lower MS
   Valley/Mid-South and TN Valley towards the lower OH Valley by
   Thursday evening.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast...
   Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from
   northeast TX into southern AR and northern MS/AL and TN. This
   activity will likely be supported by a southerly low-level jet and
   related warm advection. These storms should shift northward through
   the morning, allowing for destabilization via diurnal heating to
   occur across the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture with at
   least mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints (perhaps lower 70s), should
   advect northward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, TN Valley,
   and Southeast by Thursday afternoon. This increasing moisture,
   coupled with diurnal heating, will likely support MLCAPE of
   1500-2000 J/kg developing over a fairly broad portion of these
   regions.

   A pronounced low-level jet (50-60+ kt) will overlie much of this
   region as well, as large-scale ascent from the ejecting shortwave
   trough overspreads the lower/mid MS Valley vicinity. Strongly
   veering and strengthening wind profiles from the surface through mid
   levels will support supercells. 0-1 km SRH along/south of the
   surface warm front will likely reach 300-500 m2/s2, and low-level
   mesocyclones capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes
   appear likely with any supercells that can form. Scattered large
   hail, some of which may be 2+ inches in diameter, and
   severe/destructive winds also appear probable, both with supercells
   and any bowing line segments that can develop. At this time, the
   best potential for strong tornadoes appears to extend from parts of
   central/northern MS into western/middle TN and central/northern AL,
   mainly Thursday afternoon and evening as storms move generally
   northeastward.
Concern does exist regarding the effect of storms
   forming during the morning on the development of instability, and
   potential for destructive interference from too many storms
   developing across the warm sector at the same time. Still, given the
   very favorable environment forecast across this region and the
   potential for numerous supercells, an upgrade to High Risk for
   multiple strong to potentially violent, long-track tornadoes may be
   needed in a later outlook update.


   ...Ohio Valley...
   Fairly widespread precipitation should occur over a majority of the
   lower OH Valley through the day. This should temper diurnal
   destabilization to some degree, but weak instability will probably
   still develop along/east of the surface low and northward-moving
   warm front. At least an isolated severe threat may develop late
   Thursday afternoon into the evening as the southerly low-level jet
   strengthens over this region and low-level moisture increases. The
   potential for a low-topped line of storms capable of producing
   damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will exist given the strength of
   the low-level flow and related shear. These storms will likely be
   tied to a cold front as it tracks northeastward through the evening
   and overnight hours.

   ..Gleason.. 03/24/2021
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 01:11:00 PM
That's the scariest outlook I've seen for this area in a long time.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 01:12:06 PM
Text:

Please bust!!!!  That wording is not anything I want to see for this area. Fck that!
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 01:19:09 PM
nobody should be shocked at the moderate risk outlook, the models trended that way for the pat 24 hours, as the event gets underway tomorrow we will know how more about how it will unfold, but the stage is set, do not be surprised if north Mississippi and Alabama and Tennessee up to the 412 corridor is under high risk at some point tomorrow either

Again it is a RISK , not saying what will happen, but the threat is very significant
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: spanarkle08 on March 24, 2021, 01:22:06 PM
Gotta love model solutions ranging from a small outbreak up to 4/3-4/1974 only farther west

I was smack dab in the middle of that 74 tornado,,,,would hope its not like that. Have children and grandchildren to worry about now.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 01:37:56 PM
I hope nobody bashes me lol, but does anybody else in midstate think our tv mets don't do such a great job of expressing threats, spc clearly states long track tornado potential with supercells and it doesn't really get a mention, wsmv noon forecast even after SPC update has a "low" tornado threat, and currently that is just not accurate and misleading.

I think mets need to make people aware of all possibilities , could it bust, of course, but the general public needs to know the potential for something worse....times like this we need nancy van camp, lisa patton , bill hall and davis nolan on the case, they were GREAT at communicating the threat
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 01:43:44 PM
I hope nobody bashes me lol, but does anybody else in midstate think our tv mets don't do such a great job of expressing threats, spc clearly states long track tornado potential with supercells and it doesn't really get a mention, wsmv noon forecast even after SPC update has a "low" tornado threat, and currently that is just not accurate and misleading.

I think mets need to make people aware of all possibilities , could it bust, of course, but the general public needs to know the potential for something worse....times like this we need nancy van camp, lisa patton , bill hall and davis nolan on the case, they were GREAT at communicating the threat

This SPC outlook  just came out I would expect this evening and tonight he will see them ramp up their wording
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 01:45:59 PM
A flood watch is also been hoisted for all of middle Tennessee
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 01:49:26 PM
We just need heavy rain and thunder showers to linger through mid day and that will make this bust
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 24, 2021, 01:51:26 PM
This is a more serious threat for even eastern areas.  The moderate risk just clips the southwestern part of the MRX CWA near Chattanooga.  Enhanced to slight covers most of the rest of eastern TN, except for the northeast corner. 

(https://www.weather.gov/images//mrx/graphicast/image10.png?8bc36c85443bd71391826cf4668f1157)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2021, 01:56:36 PM
We better hope for junk convection that clutters up the warm sector.  If not, things will go sideways. 

Literally and figuratively.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 01:57:31 PM
We better hope for junk convection that clutters up the warm sector.  If not, things will go sideways. 

Literally and figuratively.
For you to be concerned that’s troublesome
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 02:00:21 PM
We just need heavy rain and thunder showers to linger through mid day and that will make this bust

spc even seems to think the dynamics will overcome some of that if it were to happen, overall it's just scary
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2021, 02:03:27 PM
For you to be concerned that’s troublesome

Saw a CIPS analog this morning that had 4/17/98 and 4/26-27/11 in the top 5.

I'm not sure concerned is the right word. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 02:06:40 PM
Saw a CIPS analog this morning that had 4/17/98 and 4/26-27/11 in the top 5.

I'm not sure concerned is the right word.

👀🤦🏻‍♂️
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 02:07:10 PM
Saw a CIPS analog this morning that had 4/17/98 and 4/26-27/11 in the top 5.

I'm not sure concerned is the right word.

both of those are horrific analogs :( many tornadoes with many strong to violent tornadoes.  this is by far the worst setup potential we have had i the mid state in many a year....May of 95 was bad as well
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 02:09:13 PM
Saw a CIPS analog this morning that had 4/17/98 and 4/26-27/11 in the top 5.

I'm not sure concerned is the right word.

I was reminded of 4/27/11 looking at the outlook map. As many may recall, TN, specifically Middle TN was under the gun with that threat in the outlook. But, we were spared, as we often are, by junkvection. I'm hoping that's the case this time as well... but you can only be that lucky so many times before the odds go against you. East TN took the brunt of that outbreak, where TN was concerned.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 02:11:05 PM
Oh, and if everything else wasn't enough, OHX just threw a Flood Watch up for tomorrow.

Ironically, an outcome more toward flooding would actually tend to save us from more of a tornado threat.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 02:15:14 PM
Oh, and if everything else wasn't enough, OHX just threw a Flood Watch up for tomorrow.

Ironically, an outcome more toward flooding would actually tend to save us from more of a tornado threat.

Much like 2010 high risk day turned into massive flooding here too
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 02:16:10 PM
if we get even 2 hours of this type of sunshine tomorrow that we have today, look out
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 24, 2021, 02:25:37 PM
James Spann's afternoon update will be in high demand. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 02:29:02 PM
James Spann's afternoon update will be in high demand.

Yes it will along with the afternoon discussion from Nashville weather service
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 24, 2021, 02:32:25 PM
Good stuff from NashSevereWX to share with your regular friends:

https://twitter.com/NashSevereWx/status/1374781839039160329 (https://twitter.com/NashSevereWx/status/1374781839039160329)

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 24, 2021, 02:32:55 PM
I was reminded of 4/27/11 looking at the outlook map. As many may recall, TN, specifically Middle TN was under the gun with that threat in the outlook. But, we were spared, as we often are, by junkvection. I'm hoping that's the case this time as well... but you can only be that lucky so many times before the odds go against you. East TN took the brunt of that outbreak, where TN was concerned.

I remember well.  Earlier that day, east TN was on the edge of the worst part of that outbreak per SPC forecasts.  By the time I got home from work at 4, I knew from the trajectory of the supercells in Alabama, we were ground zero.  And it was a memorable night for all the wrong reasons. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2021, 02:34:32 PM
I'm watching the 18z HRRR upload...I do not like what I'm seeing. At all. Not one bit.

Guys, we might have our hands full tomorrow.  ::wow::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 02:37:10 PM
HRRR has pds soundings as early as 1pm

there is a 6 hour window of pds soundings along 412 corridor
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 24, 2021, 02:40:04 PM
I'm watching the 18z HRRR upload...I do not like what I'm seeing. At all. Not one bit.

Guys, we might have our hands full tomorrow.  ::wow::
The bolded word is the key word.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 24, 2021, 02:41:37 PM
I'm watching the 18z HRRR upload...I do not like what I'm seeing. At all. Not one bit.

Guys, we might have our hands full tomorrow.  ::wow::

It is a worrisome look.  The crapvection, as we call it, clears out early enough for middle TN to become pretty unstable. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 02:47:03 PM
The bolded word is the key word.

Good reminder, before we all run off the cliff. We probably won't learn much more useful today or tonight is my guess. Then, it will all be about nowcasting the evolution of the setup during the day tomorrow.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 24, 2021, 02:47:48 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2021, 02:48:21 PM
Yes, Navy, MIGHT...hopefully we keep our rain shield and it doesn't materialize.

18z Updraft Helicity through forecast hour 35.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 02:48:47 PM
(Attachment Link)

Truly horrific dyer,

would be shocked if north ms and bama and a good section of mid state are not high risk in the morning from spc
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 24, 2021, 02:49:10 PM
It is a worrisome look.  The crapvection, as we call it, clears out early enough for middle TN to become pretty unstable.
But also, the SPC discussion mentions "destructive interference", in other words, too many storms fire all at once and then you run into spacing issues, amongst others, where updrafts compete too much and temper the threats significantly. If there is too weak of/little in the way of an EML (Elevated Mixed Layer), also known as a cap, we're more likely to see the above scenario play out.

There are still more than enough "and ifs" for tomorrow to lead me to be reserved while also concerned at the same time.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 24, 2021, 02:49:22 PM
Good reminder, before we all run off the cliff. We probably won't learn much more useful today or tonight is my guess. Then, it will all be about nowcasting the evolution of the setup during the day tomorrow.

I don’t see the models changing much between now and event time. We will definitely need to see if we have a break in the action tomorrow around or just before noon and then we need to watch and see if the warm sector becomes a cluttered mess or if isolated supercells can form enough apart to maintain their intensity.

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 02:50:53 PM
But also, the SPC discussion mentions "destructive interference", in other words, too many storms fire all at once and then you run into spacing issues, amongst others, where updrafts compete too much and temper the threats significantly. If there is too weak of/little in the way of an EML (Elevated Mixed Layer), also known as a cap, we're more likely to see the above scenario play out.

There is still more than enough "and ifs" for tomorrow to lead me to be reserved while also concerned at the same time.

hey navy! isn't that kind of what happened in mississippi and Bama last week there were too many storms so it kind of junked it up? I mean they still got hit pretty good but could have been much worse
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 24, 2021, 03:00:51 PM
I want to get off this ride.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 24, 2021, 03:03:37 PM
hey navy! isn't that kind of what happened in mississippi and Bama last week there were too many storms so it kind of junked it up? I mean they still got hit pretty good but could have been much worse
To some degree, yes. Also, that first wave was much more expansive & prolonged than originally expected, thus working the atmosphere over pretty well. Even the strong forcing along the front couldn't entirely overcome the stability.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: andyhb on March 24, 2021, 03:05:37 PM
I have very few words for those 12z and 18z HRRR runs, but all CAMs aside, the synoptic setup tomorrow, convective/mesoscale evolution pending, is one of those rare ones that basically favors right-moving supercells and vigorous low-level mesocyclogenesis right from initiation. Number one concern for TN (as always) is the warm frontal push and how far it gets, but I don't like the trends I've seen from the 12z/18z guidance so far.

I don't really want to doomcast this, but there are some hallowed days in the past that featured such a convective evolution in the SE, and I should say that the HRRR is not the only one with discrete supercells in a high end environment. The EML being forecast in the morning, the rapid surge northward of the warm front backed by a very strong low level jet, surface low track, potential for confluence bands ahead of the main front, and resulting very large hodographs are all hallmarks of these big days.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2021, 03:08:55 PM
I have very few words for those 12z and 18z HRRR runs, but all CAMs aside, the synoptic setup tomorrow, convective/mesoscale evolution pending, is one of those rare ones that basically favors right-moving supercells and vigorous low-level mesocyclogenesis right from initiation. Number one concern for TN (as always) is the warm frontal push and how far it gets, but I don't like the trends I've seen from the 12z/18z guidance so far.

I don't really want to doomcast this, but there are some hallowed days in the past that featured such a convective evolution in the SE, and I should say that the HRRR is not the only one with discrete supercells in a high end environment. The EML being forecast in the morning, the rapid surge northward of the warm front backed by a very strong low level jet, surface low track, potential for confluence bands ahead of the main front, and resulting very large hodographs are all hallmarks of these big days.
that jet with 60 kts to 80 kts pushing through  . Should be not be much of a problem clearing out morning convection
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 03:14:22 PM
nam 3k seems to favor a line of supercells as opposed to hrrr showing discrete activity....either way both runs are supercell heavy
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2021, 03:17:35 PM
18z NAM 3k for Murfreesboro at 4pm CST

(https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam4km_2021032418_027_35.91--86.47.png)


18z NAM 3k valid 9pm CST

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021032418/032/ref1km.us_ov.png)

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2021, 03:22:25 PM
Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
317 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...

This forecast highlights a significant potential for severe
thunderstorms across much of Middle Tennessee Thursday afternoon
and evening...including the threat for large hail, damaging wind,
and a couple strong, long-track tornadoes.

For now, all is quiet across the Mid State with temperatures in
the 60s and low 70s. Sunshine has broken out over much of the
area with only a few low and mid level clouds. A south-
southwesterly wind is also helping to warm us up. Lows overnight
will fall into the 50s as clouds increase from the southwest.
Thursday's forecast for rain and severe thunderstorms is associated
with a developing low pressure system over the southwestern U.S.
While this feature moves northeast into east Texas and Arkansas
tomorrow morning, winds aloft will be accelerating. Low-level jet
wind speeds of 60-65 kts or greater are expected to move overhead
around sunrise. In response, rain and thunderstorms will be
here for the morning rush hour. This first batch of rain and
embedded storms may produce some hail, but locally heavy rainfall
is the primary concern. Latest CAM guidance suggests this
activity wanes late morning to early afternoon
, only providing us
a brief break from the wet weather. Winds will be gusty at times
on Thursday, especially along and east of I-65.

After 1 or 2 PM, the atmosphere is expected to rapidly
destabilize. As the low-level jet intensifies to 65-70+ kts over
portions of the Tennessee Valley, a deepening low pressure center
will be moving across the Missouri bootheel. This is one of many
features worth watching, as more rapid pressure falls could
increase the amount of 0-1 km shear. Another feature to monitor is
a warm front, expected to lift north through the area mid to late
morning. Areas south of the front will be placed in a warm and
more humid airmass. By mid afternoon, forecast soundings indicate
40+ kts of low-level shear, 300-400+ SRH, 500-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, and lapse rates around 6-6.5 degC/km. Expect thunderstorms
to blossom over northeast Mississippi and west Tennessee with
storm motions to the northeast of 50 kts or greater. While models
suggest a very unstable atmosphere, morning rainfall could
slightly reduce the overall severe threat in the afternoon. That
said, the amount of wind energy overhead may be enough to overcome
any near-surface CIN. Storms that develop Thursday afternoon and
evening may produce damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes.
Given the amount of low-level shear and proximity to the warm
front/deepening low pressure center, a couple strong, long-track
tornadoes are possible. Keep in mind, the threat for a strong
tornado or two exists across the entire CWA.
Since storms are
expected to move rapidly, consider your severe weather safety
plan. Make sure it is a plan that allows you to be inside a sturdy
structure at a moment's notice and consider refraining from
travel during the afternoon and early evening.

Storms will exit the Mid State by late evening, leaving behind
partly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the 50s/low 60s.
Friday looks dry with more rain chances returning Saturday and
Sunday. An active pattern may continue into next week with
several opportunities for rain and some thunderstorms.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 24, 2021, 03:22:33 PM
(Attachment Link)

Christ I'm right on the edge of the max zone. That's my end of Williamson County

I wasn't living in Primm Springs at the time, but our area's last tornado was an EF2 on 2/5/2008. Came right down the road we live on.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: collinsk on March 24, 2021, 03:45:04 PM
Looks like all of southern middle TN is in the 4 of 5 category tomorrow. Someone posted a tornado chart that went to 10 and I saw 11s and 12s on it. I wonder if TWC will have us at a TOR CON of 9 tomorrow in southern mid tn. Also as a math teacher, the helicity values, CAPE and shear are scary. Eerie feeling tomorrow. What say Bruce and Eric?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 03:49:45 PM
18z NAM 3k for Murfreesboro at 4pm CST

(https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam4km_2021032418_027_35.91--86.47.png)


18z NAM 3k valid 9pm CST

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021032418/032/ref1km.us_ov.png)

So looking at this looks like more of a squall line with embedded possible tornadoes.  Not individual super cells?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2021, 03:51:11 PM
Looks like all of southern middle TN is in the 4 of 5 category tomorrow. Someone posted a tornado chart that went to 10 and I saw 11s and 12s on it. I wonder if TWC will have us at a TOR CON of 9 tomorrow in southern mid tn. Also as a math teacher, the helicity values, CAPE and shear are scary. Eerie feeling tomorrow. What say Bruce and Eric?

Yes, there is a MDT risk.  Ignore the TORCON.  It's hot garbage.  The STP chart that's "hot" has got incorrect input parameters.  I'm concerned.  Fail mode is high.  But the ceiling is high, too.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 03:52:04 PM
So looking at this looks like more of a squall line with embedded possible tornadoes.  Not individual super cells?

thats at 7pm, earlier in day is when there is more of a discrete cellular threat, HRRR is more bullish on that threat also
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: collinsk on March 24, 2021, 03:55:16 PM
If Eric is concerned, I am concerned. But yes fail  mode is high. HUN at weather.gov has a really good discussion posted too. They say they absence of the wedge front to the east is a huge factor that will help us destabilze more too. We just ned to prepare now.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 03:57:47 PM
Yes, there is a MDT risk.  Ignore the TORCON.  It's hot garbage.  The STP chart that's "hot" has got incorrect input parameters.  I'm concerned.  Fail mode is high.  But the ceiling is high, too.

yes tor con is trash
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2021, 04:00:30 PM
thats at 7pm, earlier in day is when there is more of a discrete cellular threat, HRRR is more bullish on that threat also

9pm. And yeah, everything from around noon until that line comes through will be kidney beans.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 04:02:37 PM
9pm. And yeah, everything from around noon until that line comes through will be kidney beans.

sorry,had a brain fart on the time lol

but even that line is dangerous, a line of supercells is scary as well
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: snowdog on March 24, 2021, 04:09:09 PM
If Eric is concerned, I am concerned. But yes fail  mode is high. HUN at weather.gov has a really good discussion posted too. They say they absence of the wedge front to the east is a huge factor that will help us destabilze more too. We just ned to prepare now.

My personal torcon scale is x=((Eric's concern+Andy's concern)/(Bruce's excitement level))^(Navyman's skepticism)

On a scale of 1-10, we are currently at 8.79584

It's pretty complicated and still in the beta phase but I'm having good results thus far.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 04:09:46 PM
Anecdotally, one difference between this week's and last week's systems is I believe it was still rather coolish and lower dew points even up to the day before. Today, we have 70s-T and 50s-D already. So, the climb to get up to that "feel" by tomorrow behind the warm front is much less steep.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 24, 2021, 04:10:59 PM
Per MRX:

Quote
After the first wave of activity lifts north with the initial wave,
conditions should begin to dry out a bit. Boundary layer dewpoints
increase from the upper 50`s at 12Z to the mid 60`s by 21Z Thursday
ahead of a secondary warm front. This secondary boundary will be
most critical for determining where the best environment will be in
place for severe convection. Determining where this boundary will
become draped may prove difficult given local terrain influences.
Previous events suggest these fronts can become quasi-stationary
west of the Appalachians. Also, downsloping will also likely add to
the uncertainty with local areas of subsidence likely influencing
how far north and east this boundary lifts.


There are two windows we are watching that could provide for
strong/severe storms. First, we will be watching for any discrete
convection that can develop in the warm sector airmass during the
afternoon and early evening hours
. Uncertainty is highest with
this potential activity as there remains many questions on how
much destabilization can occur. Vertical wind shear will be
impressive with 0-6km shear in excess of 60-70 knots and oriented
nearly orthogonal to the boundary, suggesting the potential for
discrete convection will be maintained. This potential will
obviously be more confined for parts of MS/AL but these conditions
could move into parts of the southern plateau and southern
valley. If cloud cover gives way to any clearing then instability
will greatly increase.


The second window is with the main confluent boundary associated
with the sub-1000 mb surface low. This boundary looks to move
across the plateau as early as 00-03Z and through much of the
valley between 03-06Z. It appears tornado potential will be
elevated with this line across the southern plateau and portions
of the southern valley
as 3CAPE over 40 j/kg becomes co-located
with continued impressive shear. 0-1km/0-3km shear near 50/60
knots is concerning leading to large looping hodographs and
increased confidence of the potential for rotating updrafts. This
thinking is currently highlighted in the HRRR/HREF updraft
helicity plots.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2021, 04:11:07 PM
My personal torcon scale is x=((Eric's concern+Andy's concern)/(Bruce's excitement level))^(Navyman's skepticism)

On a scale of 1-10, we are currently at 8.79584

It's pretty complicated and still in the beta phase but I'm having good results thus far.

You forgot a variable:

x=(((Eric's concern+Andy's concern)/(Bruce's excitement level))^(Navyman's skepticism)) - Kevin's doubts
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: snowdog on March 24, 2021, 04:13:09 PM
You forgot a variable:

x=(((Eric's concern+Andy's concern)/(Bruce's excitement level))^(Navyman's skepticism)) - Kevin's doubts

True and I think Bruce's excitement level is weighted too much. It's definitely throwing off results.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 24, 2021, 04:19:19 PM
You forgot a variable:

x=(((Eric's concern+Andy's concern)/(Bruce's excitement level))^(Navyman's skepticism)) - Kevin's doubts

Ok. Y'all are losing me.  Too many variables--too much algebra.  This is the reason I couldn't major in meteorology. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2021, 04:43:28 PM
True and I think Bruce's excitement level is weighted too much. It's definitely throwing off results.
i get excited. Sometime little concerns even on this type setup .
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 24, 2021, 04:56:12 PM
I think I'm going to wait and drive the Uhaul down early Friday morning instead of tomorrow afternoon. It's just too risky at this point and not worth the chance.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 24, 2021, 05:31:43 PM
Unlike this past event, I do think Middle TN and probably even well into KY as well will see severe weather.

The main two things that will determine whether this is a typical spring severe weather setup or an outbreak that goes into our Vault of Fame is going to be

- CAP Strength
- How many storms go at once

If we have enough of a CAP that allows for a few scattered supercells to go and those stay discrete long enough then those will definitely have the ability to produce baseball-sized hail and EF-2+ tornadoes.  If storms all go at once then it may become more of a hail/wind event with more brief tornadoes.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 05:36:00 PM
Unlike this past event, I do think Middle TN and probably even well into KY as well will see severe weather.

The main two things that will determine whether this is a typical spring severe weather setup or an outbreak that goes into our Vault of Fame is going to be

- CAP Strength
- How many storms go at once

If we have enough of a CAP that allows for a few scattered supercells to go and those stay discrete long enough then those will definitely have the ability to produce baseball-sized hail and EF-2+ tornadoes.  If storms all go at once then it may become more of a hail/wind event with more brief tornadoes.

Fred Gossage said something earlier that I had never heard of.  He said the environment being shown would possibly lead to the bigger storms weeding out the smaller ones.  Like cleaning out the weeds.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 24, 2021, 05:37:30 PM
4/7/2006, which does share a few similarities with this event to a degree provides good examples of both scenarios. 

Part 1: The leading supercell was able to produce two EF-3 tornadoes including the devastating Gallatin, TN tornado because it had enough space to work its magic.

Part 2: Later storms formed all at once down in Southern Middle TN, NE MS, and Alabama and produced widespread severe weather but since they all bunched up it did limit the tornado threat as all of those were EF0-EF2.   

I am very confident that we will see severe weather and warnings but storm spacing and cap strength will likely determine what route we take.

PS:  I am using 4/7/2006 as an example and possible analog. I am not saying that we will repeat that event.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 24, 2021, 05:54:05 PM
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F036&rundt=2021032412

While we are certainly not calling for a repeat of certain analogs on this list the fact that those analogs are even mentioned should be very concerning and shows the potential if the fail-safe doesn't activate.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2021, 05:56:31 PM
local schools closed tomorrow here, guess word is getting out .
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 06:06:32 PM
Looking at locals.  Appears WKRN is doing well in being serious.  WSMV has low chance of tornadoes they say on their web page.  WTVF has not updated since this morning.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2021, 06:09:29 PM
system already putting out tornado warning s back in texas...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 06:14:09 PM
If the warm front does not make it much past middle Tennessee there will be no threat more than just some High winds and heavy rain.  The Warm front pretty far south.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 06:16:42 PM
Looking at locals.  Appears WKRN is doing well in being serious.  WSMV has low chance of tornadoes they say on their web page.  WTVF has not updated since this morning.

mentioned that earlier, this has "potential outbreak" written on it and some stations show low chance of a tornado.....that is a lapse in judgement, they don't have to say it will be an outbreak but they could at least show the scenarios that could play out or discuss it. It could be a nothing burger but odds are that it could be more significant than what we have seen here in a long time
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2021, 06:19:26 PM
mentioned that earlier, this has "potential outbreak" written on it and some stations show low chance of a tornado.....that is a lapse in judgement, they don't have to say it will be an outbreak but they could at least show the scenarios that could play out or discuss it. It could be a nothing burger but odds are that it could be more significant than what we have seen here in a long time
agree 110 percent, because spc wording to me dont sound like low tornado chances around here unfourtently...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 06:33:03 PM
Maybe the locals see something different than the SPC
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2021, 06:35:58 PM
clearly see where the system is about now on satellite image... perfect spinning over the four corners region...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2021, 06:42:31 PM
It's about hedging their bets.  They can't scream "outbreak" because if it busts, they have egg on their face.  They go with a "few tornadoes" or "low risk" and tell the viewer to stay aware.  The on-air talent really have no say, though.  It comes from corporate and the station managers.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 24, 2021, 07:13:52 PM
It's about hedging their bets.  They can't scream "outbreak" because if it busts, they have egg on their face.  They go with a "few tornadoes" or "low risk" and tell the viewer to stay aware.  The on-air talent really have no say, though.  It comes from corporate and the station managers.

Social media is simultaneously the best and worst thing that's ever happened to weather. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 24, 2021, 07:16:19 PM
Lisa Spencer actually used the outbreak word during the 6pm broadcast tonight.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 24, 2021, 07:16:32 PM
It's about hedging their bets.  They can't scream "outbreak" because if it busts, they have egg on their face.  They go with a "few tornadoes" or "low risk" and tell the viewer to stay aware.  The on-air talent really have no say, though.  It comes from corporate and the station managers.

I would go with a few tornadoes over low-risk.  Those mean two different things. 

It is a bit of a darned if you do and darned if you don't type of thing. Overall as seen with both weather and other current events the public really struggles with risk because issues are often thought off as very black or white instead of the shades of gray that exist.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 24, 2021, 07:22:43 PM
local schools closed tomorrow here, guess word is getting out .

The combination of Enterprise in 2007 and our ability to reach most students virtually looks to make virtual school days during severe weather events more common.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 24, 2021, 07:26:57 PM
I would go with a few tornadoes over low-risk.  Those mean two different things. 

It is a bit of a darned if you do and darned if you don't type of thing. Overall as seen with both weather and other current events the public really struggles with risk because issues are often thought off as very black or white instead of the shades of gray that exist.

My biggest issue is most major local news outlets use very specific wording too avoid a full on commitment to a forecast, then wait basically until it's a nowcasting scenario and then claim they were right in their forecast either way it goes. IMHO, Nowcasting is just that, a play-by-play as it unfolds like a ballgame. You don't need to be a meteorologist to do that. That's not a forecast.

End of rant. Sorry too bring it further off topic.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 24, 2021, 07:50:04 PM
I think this goes back to what Eric said about the previous "outbreak."  Despite what the models say, we simply don't know as much as think (or what the models forecast), and uncertainly exists in the most certain of forecasts.  Every winter proves that around here. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 08:17:48 PM
I see where Richard Jack’s out of Birmingham says the model is under estimating the cab and that the rain stays around longer.  He seems to not think it’s going to be a big deal from what I can tell.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 08:29:56 PM
I would go with a few tornadoes over low-risk.  Those mean two different things. 

It is a bit of a darned if you do and darned if you don't type of thing. Overall as seen with both weather and other current events the public really struggles with risk because issues are often thought off as very black or white instead of the shades of gray that exist.

Spann talks about this alot, about social science on studying to what cues the public respond to  in a potential serious forecast. It is a fine line, but saying low tornado chance is not the way to go, it just isn't not with this setup. Something like a few tornadoes could be possible and possibly a strong one or two is a better way to go, nws ohx did that this afternoon and it is perfect for the day before an event.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 08:30:14 PM
Hearing the latest HRRR is messy and lessens severe.  That’s a good trend.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 08:34:33 PM
Hearing the latest HRRR is messy and lessens severe.  That’s a good trend.

First run that has happened, could be a one off, could be something, it is the first time it has done that... we shall see, still looks rough

It's almost time to stop model watching at this point, the event is about to occur, models have indicated a potential high end event for 2 days the table is set and we will just see what happens....i just hope everybody is taking it serious
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 08:39:29 PM
Schools that have already canceled should have waited.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2021, 08:41:59 PM
time to get some shut eye, it might be a long day tomorrow , take care y'all
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2021, 08:42:40 PM
Hearing the latest HRRR is messy and lessens severe.  That’s a good trend.



I wouldn't say it lessens the severe. Messy, sure, but point soundings throughout the evening still show PDS TOR, TOR, MGL TOR, etc just about anywhere you want to click on in Mid and West TN.


18z
(https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021032418/025/refcmp.us_ov.png)

00z
(https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021032500/020/refcmp.us_ov.png)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 24, 2021, 08:42:47 PM
Schools that have already canceled should have waited.
It’s almost 9pm, how much longer should they really have waited? The decisions are what they are.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 24, 2021, 08:44:04 PM
The latest HRRR is a bit more robust with the severe weather showing a broken line of severe storms including all hazards across NW TN, NW Middle TN and Western KY especially hail with it being closer to the low-pressure system.

It shows a cluster that runs across N AL/SE TN/NW GA midday.  We have to watch that for that general region as it could set a boundary for additional storms to run through while limiting the threat for some.

It does highlight our fail-safes and a way out of this as far as a major tornado outbreak is concerned.  A weaker CAP and more storms going at once.     
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 24, 2021, 09:00:17 PM
It’s almost 9pm, how much longer should they really have waited? The decisions are what they are.


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Exactly. Can't satisfy all the people all the time. Someone will always be mad no matter what decision is made, especially involving schools.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 24, 2021, 09:23:13 PM
Exactly. Can't satisfy all the people all the time. Someone will always be mad no matter what decision is made, especially involving schools.

Plus some have snow days to burn.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 09:29:22 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBre7kyRypA

😱😱😱
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 09:32:53 PM
On the bad news front.  Well NAM is not helping with the lessen the severe threat mojo.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2021, 09:33:47 PM
On the bad news front.  Well NAM is not helping with the lessen the severe threat mojo.

Good news is the NAM's doing NAM things.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 09:36:16 PM
I’m hoping to bring the mojo of crashing this severe wx chances party and bring us just some rain. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2021, 10:02:20 PM
Good news is the NAM's doing NAM things.
now the bad news is... the nam is also At The range were it is at its best . Does it mean it’s right?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2021, 10:11:43 PM
I say spc will wait now till 830 update morning to issue a high risk if the system warrants it. Where earlier today I was almost certain there would be a upgrade to high risk later after midnight....
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 24, 2021, 10:14:14 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBre7kyRypA

😱😱😱

Holy ****. I still have PTSD from the hail we got hear 7ish years ago. The storm itself wasn’t so bad, weeks later when the roof was being replaced a downpour came through flooding my house from above. That was a nightmare.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 10:40:17 PM
Definitely has gotten quiet across the wx boards.  Maybe this threat is decreasing.  Of course tomorrow morning is when we will have better idea of warm front stalls and we just end up with heavy rains.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2021, 10:48:22 PM
Tony Lyza
@tlyzawx
I'm gonna regret this, but here are my thoughts on #alwx #mswx #tnwx after the 00Z sndgs and CAMs:

-You wanted EML? You're gonna get some. JAN already has a 7.5 C/km LR layer, and that remnant EML only grows to the SW toward BRO, CRP, LCH. That advection will continue overnight.

Can someone help me understand this?

https://attachments.talkweather.com/2021/03/7483_f9fa3903f9ec6e7e37ce75d0bf7bf57c.png

NM



Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2021, 10:57:31 PM
Latest href oz hi res was down right scary for most west middle Tennessee
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 01:06:37 AM
High risk incoming ...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 01:11:04 AM
It’s out and Fred Gossage said there is a chance it could be expanded in morning once smaller features are worked out.  It’s close enough to me.  Moderate also expanded.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 25, 2021, 01:12:23 AM
High risk incoming ...

It's definitely there but I can only see it in the thumbnail on the main page since SPC hasn't finished the link.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: HendersonvilleWx on March 25, 2021, 01:13:57 AM
There's the High Risk.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 01:16:11 AM
Maybe I’m seeing it wrong but looks like warm front is moving quickly to north.  Also the rain shield does not seem to be large in coverage.  Gaps in between.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 01:19:09 AM
Maybe I’m seeing it wrong but looks like warm front is moving quickly to north.  Also the rain shield does not seem to be large in coverage.  Gaps in between.
just fixing say that Matt. Good catch  man large 45 wind  threat catches my eye too back to miss river .
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 02:13:54 AM
looks terrifying for my area in s/w middle :(  I knew high risk was coming, i even expect it to creep farther north in future outlooks
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 03:15:22 AM
6z HRRR was back to showing isolated supercells across middle TN this afternoon through early evening and then a line of supes passing through shortly there after.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 05:12:15 AM
That line of cells out ahead of the cold front is trending stronger.

Damaging winds would be a threat but we cannot rule out a significant tornado/hail event or two with the front itself especially since it looks to be more of a chain gang of supercells versus an actual squall line or QLCS due to the low amp of the trough in general. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 05:18:02 AM
One thing I’ll note is how fast the destabilization process will be. It looks like the bulk of the early precip won’t move out until ~11-noon, then we have supercells moving in around the 3-4 pm timeframe. If, big if, the destabilization isn’t as rapid as the models depict then that will tamper the severe risk somewhat. I’m not hopeful that will happen, but it is something to watch.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 05:22:18 AM
Look at all that clearing back se Arkansas  nw miss. Pushing north quickly
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 05:41:45 AM
MEG using the word violent... been awhile .. dew point already in lower to mid 60s portions of state
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 05:50:48 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/swo_202103251043.png)

Quote

   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

   ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over
   parts of the Mid-South to Tennessee Valley today...

   * LOCATIONS...
     Central and northern Mississippi
     Northern Alabama
     Western and Middle Tennessee

   * HAZARDS...
     Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track
     Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
     Scattered large hail, some baseball size

   * SUMMARY...
     A tornado outbreak is expected today into early this evening
     across parts of the Southeast northward into the Tennessee
     Valley. Several long-track strong tornadoes, destructive winds
     and very large hail are forecast from the Lower Mississippi
     Valley, eastward across parts of the Southeast and northward
     into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

   Preparedness actions...

   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
   weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
   watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
   during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
   your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

   &&

   ..Edwards.. 03/25/2021
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 05:57:40 AM
Some of the latest CIPs is just downright nasty for middle TN.  Not trends hoping for.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 05:58:03 AM
Everyone stay sharp today.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 06:07:10 AM
Wonder how many outflow boundaries are being laid for this afternoon ... ?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Sbeagles on March 25, 2021, 06:08:50 AM
I’m surprised to see the southern extent of this precip shield already approaching the Tn/Ms state line.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 06:12:24 AM
[attachimg=1][attachimg=2]
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Scot on March 25, 2021, 06:29:53 AM
Am I wrong in being concerned that there could be some severe storms even this afternoon?  The NWS is saying 6:00 and I know of school systems that are basing whether or not to dismiss early based on that. 


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 06:33:48 AM
Am I wrong in being concerned that there could be some severe storms even this afternoon?  The NWS is saying 6:00 and I know of school systems that are basing whether or not to dismiss early based on that. 


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Hot off the latest AFD from OHX just a few minutes ago, they’re saying first round of severe weather as early as 2PM:

Quote
The strongest zones of lift will commence across the area between 2P
and 5PM today. This will represent the first of two waves of
potential severe weather. At that time, capes will approach 1000
joules per kg...LIs of -4 or less....850 mb wind speeds of 50-60kts.
Additionally 0-1 KM helicity values look like 400-500 M(2) per s(2).
SPC has upgraded out far southwestern areas to a HIGH RISK, with a
moderate risk elsewhere. Damaging winds, large hail, and scattered
tornados are a good possibility. Again, the timing of this first
wave of severe weather will be from 2PM, until 6PM.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 06:36:10 AM
(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

I know just model possibilities but those are nasty looking.

Not sure if means anything but my dog is acting very weird this morning.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 06:41:23 AM
Last week’s mitigating factor was the warm front getting hung up to our south. That’s not the case today. It’s full steam on its way to lifting up through and north of the area in the next few hours.

The thing to watch for today I think is whether the sector clears by the afternoon to give space for individual supercell growth or if overdevelopment in the sector could save us.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 06:52:45 AM
Last week’s mitigating factor was the warm front getting hung up to our south. That’s not the case today. It’s full steam on its way to lifting up through and north of the area in the next few hours.

The thing to watch for today I think is whether the sector clears by the afternoon to give space for individual supercell growth or if overdevelopment in the sector could save us.
you can clearly see rapid clearing to the south on image  Hellen Keller could see that even   Well define
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Nash_LSU on March 25, 2021, 06:59:05 AM
OHX...they’re saying first round of severe weather as early as 2PM:

Looks right in line with what the HRRR is showing. It gets rocking in SW Middle/SE West TN right about that time and heads NE with some nasty looking supercells. In the words of the great prophet Samuel L Jackson, "Hold on to your butts."
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 07:07:51 AM
#1 thing I want to say is just everybody please stay safe

#2 this is also the first high risk to include TN counties since march 2012 so this is very much a rare potentially violent event....lets do our part and let our family members and friends know to be aware this afternoon.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 07:10:06 AM
you can clearly see rapid clearing to the south on image  Hellen Keller could see that even   Well define

Yes- even with some showery activity south of the complex along the warm front.

What I will be interested in watching during the day is the development of new activity and whether anything blows up too early and makes an overly competitive environment to inhibit higher end supercell development. I know what models are suggesting about that, but observation will either confirm or challenge that.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 07:47:15 AM
what is also scary is after the potential discrete cells, when the front comes through that is also looking like a broken supercell line as well until you get east of 65
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 07:54:57 AM
[attachimg=1]

Don’t get this wording from SPC very often… from the 13z outlook
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 07:58:12 AM
(Attachment Link)

Don’t get this wording from SPC very often… from the 13z outlook

that's something scary about our tornadic cells in dixie alley area is how fast they move in forward motion
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 08:08:15 AM
This part seems to indicate that even closely spaced activity may not quite be the mitigating factor we usually know it as...

A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO WILL REDUCE POTENTIAL COLD-POOL/OUTFLOW STRENGTH
VIA LESS SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION, SO THAT EVEN CLOSELY SPACED STORMS
MAY HAVE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREATS.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Sbeagles on March 25, 2021, 08:12:59 AM
SPC nudges high risk north. Now southern border of Perry co is on the line. High or moderate doesn’t matter, everyone across mid and west tn needs to pay attention today.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Shores on March 25, 2021, 08:13:47 AM
I know just model possibilities but those are nasty looking.

Not sure if means anything but my dog is acting very weird this morning.

I'm usually a lurker, but I can agree my dogs are very weird this morning. Also, we are in the country in Montgomery County and the deer were absolutely crazy yesterday.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 08:17:36 AM
SPC nudges high risk north. Now southern border of Perry co is on the line. High or moderate doesn’t matter, everyone across mid and west tn needs to pay attention today.

yes, you and I are within 5-10 miles of the "high risk" I think it will eventually include a few more counties but either way it is dangerous for sure
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 08:19:15 AM
Lots of rain and storms to come.  Maybe that will keep environment stable.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 08:24:08 AM
Lots of rain and storms to come.  Maybe that will keep environment stable.

we can always count on matthew to try and see the bright side of things :)

the difference seems to be this time it is already breaking up and being scattered, at least in my area in s/w middle
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 08:24:22 AM
Lots of rain and storms to come.  Maybe that will keep environment stable.
these storm s going now going do nothing but lay down boundaries . Clearly doing that now
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 08:25:26 AM
Lots of rain and storms to come.  Maybe that will keep environment stable.

12z HRRR pushes the rain out and gives us 3-4 hours of destabilization ahead of a swarm of supercells. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 08:26:45 AM
12z HRRR pushes the rain out and gives us 3-4 hours of destabilization ahead of a swarm of supercells.
i am getting first breaks in sky here back west
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 08:30:17 AM
12z HRRR pushes the rain out and gives us 3-4 hours of destabilization ahead of a swarm of supercells.

I’m trying here.  🤣🤣🤣🤦🏻‍♂️
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 08:31:07 AM
I'm usually a lurker, but I can agree my dogs are very weird this morning. Also, we are in the country in Montgomery County and the deer were absolutely crazy yesterday.

My dog had to take a dump at 5am this morning. It was weird. She is 13 years old for what it's worth.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 08:31:46 AM
12z HRRR pushes the rain out and gives us 3-4 hours of destabilization ahead of a swarm of supercells.

Interesting that the nam really hints at more of a threat with the line of storms being supercells with front as opposed to hrrr solution which is discrete heavy....i guess we just combine parts the two models to come up with the potential solutions
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 08:32:20 AM
I’m trying here.  🤣🤣🤣🤦🏻‍♂️

like i said, you always try to keep the positive attitude, nothing wrong with that :)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormStalker on March 25, 2021, 08:32:24 AM
Sun's already trying to peek through the clouds here in parts of Gallatin.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 08:32:40 AM
12z HRRR has me feeling pretty optimistic for the MEG counties save Northeast Mississippi as afternoon convection continues to primarily trend east….

Memphis being under two Moderate Risk with little to no severe storms actually occurring will add to the desensitization from last week….

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 08:33:33 AM
Sounds like snowdog needs to add reported dog pooping activities to his TORCON algorithm.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 08:35:32 AM
these storm s going now going do nothing but lay down boundaries . Clearly doing that now

If you don't mind, can someone take an educational minute and briefly explain how these boundaries are made and their significance?

I would appreciate learning something this morning.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: rocket41 on March 25, 2021, 08:36:46 AM
I was thinking the same thing.  Aside from the last line HRRR doesn't look to bad for West TN. NAM on the other hand looks much more ominous.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: snowdog on March 25, 2021, 08:36:50 AM
Sounds like snowdog needs to add reported dog pooping activities to his TORCON algorithm.

I was going to say, my dog is currently passed out on her bed snoring...sooo we must be in the clear here, right.

<disclaimer: joke>
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 08:41:12 AM
If you don't mind, can someone take an educational minute and briefly explain how these boundaries are made and their significance?

I would appreciate learning something this morning.
it helps to give a good breathing ground for super cell structures
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 08:41:34 AM
If you don't mind, can someone take an educational minute and briefly explain how these boundaries are made and their significance?

I would appreciate learning something this morning.

Basically, previous storms leave little areas turbulence or wind shift lines lines, which become triggering mechanisms for later development.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 08:43:28 AM
Sounds like snowdog needs to add reported dog pooping activities to his TORCON algorithm.

My dog has 13 years experience freaking out in the wake of severe weather. You could say she was literally about to sh*t the bed if I didn't take her out.

Totally has nothing to do with her being geriatric
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 08:43:34 AM
If you don't mind, can someone take an educational minute and briefly explain how these boundaries are made and their significance?

I would appreciate learning something this morning.

When rain departs, it leaves residual cold pools in the atmosphere.  Given the right circumstances, these cold pools can serve to initiate or even enhance ongoing convection.  Since temps generally cool with height, an air parcel at the surface will rise because its much lighter and warmer than the surrounding air.  Basically, the cold pools serve as an "energy refill".  That's what caused the Murfreesboro tornado in 2009.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 08:45:14 AM
Rutherford schools dismissing 2 hours early
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 08:49:58 AM
A chilly 55 with moderate rain falling here.  Worrisome that the HRRR appears to show some rotating storms making it into eastern areas this evening, especially around Knoxville.  Hope everyone stays safe on a potentially violent weather day.  My flashlights are ready with fresh batteries.  I hope I don't need them, though. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 08:50:21 AM
Rutherford schools dismissing 2 hours early

I wonder if we might see more early dismissals. The timing of the storms might be when the buses are scattered throughout a district. Would not want to be a bus driver this afternoon.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 08:52:09 AM
A chilly 55 with moderate rain falling here.  Worrisome that the HRRR appears to show some rotating storms making it into eastern areas this evening, especially around Knoxville.  Hope everyone stays safe on a potentially violent weather day.  My flashlights are ready with fresh batteries.  I hope I don't need them, though.

Jaycee i saw kidney beans even approaching crossville on the HRRR as well
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: kristin on March 25, 2021, 08:59:37 AM
I'm a total novice but I've always lurked on this board.  What does a kidney bean mean.  TYIA
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 09:00:03 AM
The DP is already higher than it was at any point during the event last week. The air has "the feel".
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 09:00:49 AM
I'm a total novice but I've always lurked on this board.  What does a kidney bean mean.  TYIA

Slang for a supercell.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 09:01:05 AM
Apart from severe weather, most of us are under a wind advisory for gusts up to 45 mph outside of any storms.  One saving grace is deciduous trees are mostly leafless, so tree damage might be less without the added weight and wind catching leaves on trees.  Bradfords are fully bloomed, so expect to see many of those split in half by morning.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 09:06:14 AM
based on radar returns s/w middle should be clearing about 10:30
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 09:07:29 AM
I'm a total novice but I've always lurked on this board.  What does a kidney bean mean.  TYIA

The storms are shaped like kidney beans on those model maps.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 09:08:32 AM
MRX morning update:

Quote
Wanted to talk about the environment expected this afternoon and
evening. The main mid/upper lvl trough continues to dominate much
of the CONUS this morning with the main shortwave showing up
clearly in moisture channels. This shortwave and associated speed
max will translate east as this shortwave digs into the MS river
valley. Impressive kinematics will overspread much of the
southeast this afternoon with 80-100 kt mid level winds. An
associated low level jet is expected to develop late this morning
peaking near 60-70 knots. This LLJ is already starting to be seen
in the HTX Vad wind profile with strengthening flow just above
4kft. From a more mesoscale picture, a warm front is currently
just to our south and west generally from northern MS through
northern AL and into central GA
. Plenty of showers continue to
overspread along and north of this boundary. MUCAPE increases just
south of this boundary where an increase in lightning activity
can be seen. This front will continue its northerly motion thorugh
the morning and into the afternoon. All available hi-res guidance
suggests showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in
areal coverage through the morning and afternoon. While this
normally will keep boundary layer instability on the lower side, I
think the impressive LLJ will aid in advection and should
overcome this. Also, guidance is pointing at some clearing taking
place late this afternoon. If some sun can come out then this
heating could encourage further increases in instability.

The shear/CAPE parameter space is concerning to say the least.
Deep layer shear will only increase by the afternoon and into the
evening hours. 0-0.5km/0-1km/0-3km shear near 35/45/70 knots
respectively suggest that the environment will be more than
conducive for rotating updrafts today. SRH between 400-600m2/s2
leading to large looping hodographs combined with >300j/kg of
MLCAPE suggests tornado potential increases late this afternoon
and into the early evening for the southern valley and portions of
the Cumberland Plateau. The threat of long-tracked supercellular
structures and long-track tornadoes are also possible given the
low LCL`s, 0-3km CAPE, and impressive near surface shear.
Again
this window seems to be from 00z-03z. HREF and HRRR continue to
show several updraft helicity tracks through the area further
increasing confidence of the above. Further severe weather hazards
will be damaging winds and large hail with any of these supercell
structures or any semi-linear convective structures.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 09:10:03 AM
First mesoscale discussion of the day... wind and hail possibilities in morning storms.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0251.html (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0251.html)

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0251.gif)

Elevated- not really the tornado-threat type storms, yet...

Quote
   The severe potential is expected to increase across this region by
   mid-day and through the afternoon/evening hours. Partly cloudy skies
   and a northward flux of upper 60s/low70s dewpoints behind this
   early-morning convection will allow for diurnal
   heating/destabilization that will support surface-based convection
   (and a higher severe threat). Although a watch is not anticipated in
   the near-term, a watch will be needed later today.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: kristin on March 25, 2021, 09:13:47 AM
Slang for a supercell.

I kinda thought so but I wasn't for sure.   :D
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: kristin on March 25, 2021, 09:14:24 AM
The storms are shaped like kidney beans on those model maps.

Thank you!  And of course it's around Crossville. :o
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 09:16:54 AM
First mesoscale discussion of the day... wind and hail possibilities in morning storms.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0251.html (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0251.html)

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0251.gif)

Elevated- not really the tornado-threat type storms, yet...

look at that 1000 cape already on the TN border
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 25, 2021, 09:18:39 AM
Top CIPS analog is now 4/27/2011.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 09:21:46 AM
look at that 1000 cape already on the TN border

That’s MUCAPE which is a reflection of elevated instability…. Not surface instability
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 09:22:52 AM
I just read that the warm front feature appears to be sagging south?  Does that mean less chance of severe for middle?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 09:23:32 AM
Top CIPS analog is now 4/27/2011.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/bPCwGUF2sKjyE/giphy.gif)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 09:25:17 AM
Top CIPS analog is now 4/27/2011.

gosh!!! it rained here until noon-1pm that day solid, thats the only thing that saved us
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 09:30:45 AM
Top CIPS analog is now 4/27/2011.
I will say this: the morning round on 4/27 was absolutely vicious here. We had something like 8 small tornadoes from a single cluster. This killed power for most people for the rest of the day. So far, the morning round today is far more tame.
EDIT: It was actually 6 tornadoes in Hamilton county in the morning round. 11 total for the day.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 09:33:03 AM
I’ll be watching from afar in the Florida Panhandle.

To say I am concerned is an understatement.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 09:33:23 AM
The difference between this event and 4/27 (for east TN at least) is cloud cover.  After a round of morning severe convection, skies cleared here after 11am-12pm, and remained sunny most of the afternoon pushing temps well into the lower 80's.  Looking at the HRRR, I don't see that long window of instability building sunshine today, as the model seems to keep a steady stream of rain and storms moving in on this side of the state with only a short break.

Yeah, grasping at straws.  One 4/27/11 was enough for me. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 09:34:24 AM
Sounds like snowdog needs to add reported dog pooping activities to his TORCON algorithm.

Well if I used his TORCON algorithm right.  With the dog 💩 added in.  It comes out with a solution that this severe threat has gone to 💩
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 09:36:03 AM
TOR warning across MS.  First of the day?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 09:39:06 AM
Is it me or does it appear the rain free atmosphere is getting closer to Mid TN
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 09:39:49 AM
Is it me or does it appear the rain free atmosphere is getting closer to Mid TN

it is very close, i am in very light shower mode with small peaks of sun through gray clouds every now and then
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Hank W on March 25, 2021, 09:40:38 AM
Looks like the latest HRRR and NAM 3k keep highest parameters further south into East MS and Alabama with maybe a row of counties into TN (basically the high risk area). Earlier runs had extreme STP values up to the Kentucky line. Just one of many things to look at.

EDIT to add: The environment is still there there for sure, just the last few runs don't have some of the widespread insane numbers that were shown earlier.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Sbeagles on March 25, 2021, 09:42:27 AM
Is it me or does it appear the rain free atmosphere is getting closer to Mid TN
Yeah, rain has pretty much moved out of my area. Maybe a few light showers left to go but thats about it.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 09:43:41 AM
Looks like the latest HRRR and NAM 3k keep highest parameters further south into East MS and Alabama with maybe a row of counties into TN (basically the high risk area). Earlier runs had extreme STP values up to the Kentucky line. Just one of many things to look at.

That’s a great thing to hear.  Maybe rain is making atmosphere stable.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 09:44:00 AM
Good tool to observe where lightning is occurring, near real time (and the location of the more unstable air).  So far, most lightning is near the TN southern border, and some isolated areas in west TN.

https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;z=7;y=34.0162;x=-85.2704;d=2;dl=2;dc=0; (https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;z=7;y=34.0162;x=-85.2704;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;)

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 09:50:36 AM
I wouldn't get lulled into a false sense of security.  Given the amount of kinematics at play, just 500 j/kg of CAPE is enough to fire off a long-tracker.  Throw in the the numerous boundaries roaming around, and bad things can - and likely will - happen.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: wmp600 on March 25, 2021, 09:53:24 AM
Really getting brighter here in Cheatham County. Sun is trying to come out. Appears the rain is over for the morning. One of my friends is having a double transplant at Vanderbilt this afternoon. I hope all goes well & the storms do not affect his operation.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Hank W on March 25, 2021, 09:55:53 AM
I wouldn't get lulled into a false sense of security.  Given the amount of kinematics at play, just 500 j/kg of CAPE is enough to fire off a long-tracker.  Throw in the the numerous boundaries roaming around, and bad things can - and likely will - happen.

Absolutely. The atmosphere is primed and everyone should be prepared regardless of any slight changes on any model.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 09:56:21 AM
Getting peeks sun here now ...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 09:59:05 AM
I don’t think folks realize that you really do not need sunshine with this level of a setup.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 09:59:13 AM
Getting peeks sun here now ...

same here bruce
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 09:59:23 AM
The warm front is still well south across North Central MS/AL. So while there may be some peaks of sun across TN as of now it’s not really contributing to instability because it’s still in the cool sector. Of course lack of precipitation helps the warm front continue advancing north.

All indications are the focused threat is across NE MS into AL and possibly southern middle TN. I still see the risk as substantially lower (not zero) across W TN as the surface low tracks along the MS river pushing the best surface convergence SE of there.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 10:07:16 AM
I don’t think folks realize that you really do not need sunshine with this level of a setup.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Exactly.  Instead we need lots of rain!🤣😉
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: budrow014 on March 25, 2021, 10:08:36 AM
How far north is the warm front estimated to go? And should the majority of supercell activity stay to the south of the front?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bluegrasspr on March 25, 2021, 10:09:08 AM
Light rain, thunder, and lightning here in Loudon County.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 10:09:11 AM
The warm front is still well south across North Central MS/AL. So while there may be some peaks of sun across TN as of now it’s not really contributing to instability because it’s still in the cool sector. Of course lack of precipitation helps the warm front continue advancing north.

All indications are the focused threat is across NE MS into AL and possibly southern middle TN. I still see the risk as substantially lower (not zero) across W TN as the surface low tracks along the MS river pushing the best surface convergence SE of there.

If true then the SPC is having a tough go of it this year. Could they have 2 high risk underperform?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 10:09:50 AM
First severe t-storm warning for east TN. 

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1102 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

TNC065-251600-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-210325T1600Z/
Hamilton TN-
1102 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FOR
HAMILTON COUNTY..
.

At 1102 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Soddy-Daisy to Chickamauga to 9 miles northeast
of Little River Falls, moving northeast at 70 mph.


HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Chattanooga, Soddy-Daisy, Signal Mountain, Walden, Lakesite,
Ridgeside, Fairmount, Harrison, Red Bank and Collegedale.

This includes Interstate 75 in Tennessee between mile markers 1 and
15.

Moving northeast at 70mph??  If that's correct, these storms are moving at crazy speeds.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 10:11:34 AM
If true then the SPC is having a tough go of it this year. Could they have 2 high risk underperform?

That post is not implying the High Risk underperforms….
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 10:14:34 AM
MCD inbound.  Watch 95%....

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/mcd0252.gif)

Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 0252
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1012 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Areas affected...central and northern Mississippi and
   Alabama...parts of southern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

   Valid 251512Z - 251745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing storms from Mississippi into Alabama may
   consolidate into supercells through midday with developing tornado
   threat. A tornado watch is likely by early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing activity over eastern MS and into AL has been
   elevated for much of the morning, but cells now extend southwest of
   the warm front which is situated from from northern MS into central
   AL. Radar trends show that cells within these areas have acquired
   rotation as they attempt to transition from elevated to surface
   based. This may happen over the next couple hours as temperatures
   warm into the 70s F with the warm front lifting north, maximizing
   effective SRH. Therefore, it is possible that these cells develop a
   tornado threat over the next few hours. 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2
   along the warm front will favor strong tornadoes as the stronger
   instability develops into the warm advection zone.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 10:16:01 AM
That post is not implying the High Risk underperforms….

I know.  Apologize for wrong wording. Meant to say they have put places into higher outlook zones that have underperformed.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 10:18:21 AM
MCD inbound.  Watch 95%....

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/mcd0252.gif)
Curious will any storms in this area on the warm front ride more N/NE?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 10:18:45 AM
MCD inbound.  Watch 95%....

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/mcd0252.gif)

interesting, that those alabama storms moving east are expected to ramp up that quick, thats way ahead of the main supercell initiation expected over north MS and Western middle
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 10:24:25 AM
bright blue sky here now
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 10:25:32 AM
And, when that watch is issued, it should definitely be a PDS.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 10:27:39 AM
And, when that watch is issued, it should definitely be a PDS.
yeah it’s in the high risk zone
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 10:28:19 AM
First warning of the day here was SVR and thankfully did not verify. TONS of lightning, but no hail. Already up to 1.70" in the rain gauge.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 10:30:39 AM
Well fck
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Coach B on March 25, 2021, 10:34:42 AM
Well fck

That has quite a bit more activity over west/middle TN at 3:00 than the HRRR:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021032514/hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_7.png)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 10:35:03 AM
More Mid TN School systems dismissing early. Seems like a reasonable call.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 10:39:22 AM
Kidney bean N of Tuscaloosa could go TOR any minute.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 10:41:12 AM
That has quite a bit more activity over west/middle TN at 3:00 than the HRRR:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021032514/hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_7.png)

I’m thinking the HRRR is more accurate more often than not.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 10:50:17 AM
Suns out with winds from east.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 10:59:30 AM
Heavy rain continues here, and now hearing the first rumbles of distant thunder from storms to my southwest.  Runoff from the rain has started in earnest. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 11:02:35 AM
Hopefully the warm front does not lift thru TN.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 11:03:49 AM
https://twitter.com/CameronJNixon/status/1375109853715296264 (https://twitter.com/CameronJNixon/status/1375109853715296264)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: snowdog on March 25, 2021, 11:05:02 AM
While I'm usually not a serious severe poster, I'll caution people with this, we went to bed last March feeling pretty comfortable we were out the woods. Only for mother nature to lay down a strong long track tornado.

You just never know.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mmryan on March 25, 2021, 11:06:46 AM
So where do you guys recommend taking shelter? We have no interior rooms, closets, downstairs bathtub, hallway without a door or window, crawl space, or basement. It is top priority in houses we look at to have a safer space in the future haha. My options are a pantry on an exterior wall,  interior wall corner of a dining room with only small windows, coat closet on exterior wall but with a porch to the other side, or hallway by front door.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 11:07:27 AM
https://twitter.com/CameronJNixon/status/1375109853715296264 (https://twitter.com/CameronJNixon/status/1375109853715296264)

Can't see this
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 11:10:13 AM
something for people to remember, watches will be issued farther south first and then expand northward through day
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 11:10:53 AM
Can't see this

Are you on a network where Twitter is blocked? The tweet opens for me.

It's a gif loop of hodographs on the map.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: snowdog on March 25, 2021, 11:15:31 AM
Are you on a network where Twitter is blocked? The tweet opens for me.

It's a gif loop of hodographs on the map.

I can see it now, but for some reason the initial post was blank.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 11:17:27 AM
I can see it now, but for some reason the initial post was blank.

I initially attempted to embed the gif address as an img, but I reposted the twitter link when I saw that was blank.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 11:17:54 AM
Latest SPC MD would indicate the threat is evolving east of Memphis and the Delta as hinted in modeling… not an all clear but maybe headed that direction. NE MS again is the target zone… perhaps southern Middle TN later and of course adjacent AL…
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: spanarkle08 on March 25, 2021, 11:18:04 AM
West TN looking clear on radar right now
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 25, 2021, 11:20:08 AM
We have sun in Lebanon. I have a real bad feeling right now. It feels like it did on that day almost 10 years ago
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: wmp600 on March 25, 2021, 11:21:06 AM
So where do you guys recommend taking shelter? We have no interior rooms, closets, downstairs bathtub, hallway without a door or window, crawl space, or basement. It is top priority in houses we look at to have a safer space in the future haha. My options are a pantry on an exterior wall,  interior wall corner of a dining room with only small windows, coat closet on exterior wall but with a porch to the other side, or hallway by front door.
That's a tough one. I am in the same boat but thankfully have a place to go if I need to. You might check around to see if there will be any local shelters available to the public.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 11:22:48 AM
Lightning/thunder is definitely on the increase here, but storms are still elevated.  Temp has only risen two degrees to 57 with a stiff northeast wind blowing from time to time.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 11:24:09 AM
Clearing is starting to occur. Some minor peaks of sun trying to come through. This appears to be way more favorable than the last setup for sure. Time will tell. Got to get the warm front through here first.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 11:25:08 AM
First watch of the day has been hoisted.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ExVp4j5U4Ag-ibs?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 11:26:24 AM
I can see it now, but for some reason the initial post was blank.

It was for some reason. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 11:28:12 AM
Clearing is starting to occur. Some minor peaks of sun trying to come through. This appears to be way more favorable than the last setup for sure. Time will tell. Got to get the warm front through here first.
appears just south of Memphis
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 11:29:19 AM
First watch of the day has been hoisted.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ExVp4j5U4Ag-ibs?format=jpg&name=small)

yep as expected starting to the south
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 11:31:05 AM
Are you on a network where Twitter is blocked? The tweet opens for me.

It's a gif loop of hodographs on the map.

Can view it now
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 11:35:03 AM
So where do you guys recommend taking shelter? We have no interior rooms, closets, downstairs bathtub, hallway without a door or window, crawl space, or basement. It is top priority in houses we look at to have a safer space in the future haha. My options are a pantry on an exterior wall,  interior wall corner of a dining room with only small windows, coat closet on exterior wall but with a porch to the other side, or hallway by front door.

Coat closet with porch on the other side sounds like the best bet. At least there's a little something overhanging on the other side.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 11:35:14 AM
New Day 1 is out...

Quote
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK   
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
1129 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 
 
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z 
 
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST MS...NORTHERN AND WESTERN AL...AND PARTS OF 
SOUTHERN MIDDLE AND SOUTHEAST TN... 
   
..SUMMARY 
 
SEVERAL LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO 
THIS EVENING FROM MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA AND PARTS OF MIDDLE AND 
EASTERN TENNESSEE.  THE MOST PERSISTENT/INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL BE 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES, ALONG WITH VERY 
LARGE HAIL AND SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGING WINDS. 
 
...AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON 
INTO THIS EVENING FROM MS INTO AL AND PARTS OF TN, WITH LONG-TRACK 
STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES POSSIBLE... 
   
..SYNOPSIS 
 
A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST AR WILL DEEPEN GRADUALLY WHILE 
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN IL THIS EVENING AND NORTHWESTERN 
OH/SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL OCCUR 
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF A MIDLEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK TOWARD LAKE 
ERIE.  AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPENS, 
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE DRAWN 
NORTHWARD ACROSS MS/AL/TN, IN THE WAKE OF MORNING WARM ADVECTION 
STORMS (ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH).  THE 
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED 
MIXED LAYER PLUME WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM, WHICH 
WAS SAMPLED BY THE CRP, LCH AND JAN 12Z SOUNDINGS.   
 
MLCAPE ALREADY EXCEEDS 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF MS AS OF LATE 
MORNING, AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM 
SECTOR AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S AND NEAR 70 F 
DEWPOINTS SPREAD NORTHWARD.  THE ONGOING BROKEN BAND OF STORMS FROM 
NORTHERN AL INTO CENTRAL MS, ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET/MOIST AXIS, 
WILL BE A LIKELY ZONE OF INTENSIFYING, SURFACE-BASED STORMS THROUGH 
THE AFTERNOON.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG (EFFECTIVE 
BULK SHEAR OF 60-70 KT) OVER THE WARM SECTOR, AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL 
FLOW WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500 MS/S2) 
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.   
GIVEN SOMEWHAT SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL BANDS 
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, SCATTERED DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE 
SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE WARM SECTOR SPREADS INTO TN.   

INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING AND NEWLY DEVELOPING STORMS IS 
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AL, FROM WHICH 
THE PRIMARY SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL EVOLVE. 
 
GIVEN THE MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY, MOIST LOW LEVELS, LONG 
HODOGRAPHS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE, AND PRIMARILY 
DISCRETE STORMS, THE SCENARIO FAVORS LONG-LIVED, FAST-MOVING 
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERAL STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES 
ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE 
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE 
NORTH. OF THE MAIN WARM SECTOR. 

 
A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING 
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE, 
THOUGH BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS 
FARTHER SOUTHEAST.  THERE MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO 
MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ALONG THE 
WARM FRONT. 

(https://climate.cod.edu/data/text/images/spc/co/day1/categorical/spccoday1.categorical.latest.png?v=501)

(https://climate.cod.edu/data/text/images/spc/co/day1/tornado/spccoday1.tornado.latest.png?v=891)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 11:37:20 AM
New Day 1 is out...

(https://climate.cod.edu/data/text/images/spc/co/day1/categorical/spccoday1.categorical.latest.png?v=501)

(https://climate.cod.edu/data/text/images/spc/co/day1/tornado/spccoday1.tornado.latest.png?v=891)

seems a bit like april 27 wit threat zone ever so slightly shifting east in high risk
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 11:39:10 AM
SPC finally adjusting east… HRRR would indicate it may still be too far west….

Memphis may end up staying on the NW side of the low pressure this entire event which would be quite something…
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 11:40:36 AM
TOR just popped down in AL, south of Tusculoosa.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 11:41:51 AM
Moderate/enhanced has been expanded slightly east, further into east TN. 

I hope after Saturday, we have a nice, long quiet stretch. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 11:43:04 AM
All of East TN needs to be on the lookout. Time to put that "mountains protect us" myth to rest.

Knoxville is under the gun
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 11:44:40 AM
SPC finally adjusting east… HRRR would indicate it may still be too far west….

Memphis may end up staying on the NW side of the low pressure this entire event which would be quite something…

To that point surface mesoanalysis shows the SLP directly over MEM.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 11:45:04 AM
All of East TN needs to be on the lookout. Time to put that "mountains protect us" myth to rest.

Knoxville is under the gun

I think that myth got squashed after 4/27.  One of the strongest tornadoes, and EF4, occurred in Blount Co--in the Smoky Mtn. National Park.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 11:46:03 AM
well latest trends are certainly moving more a bit south and east , that outlook looks just like april 27th
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 11:48:38 AM
To that point surface mesoanalysis shows the SLP directly over MEM.

Which will effectively end the threat for Memphis soon and much of W TN not much longer after. This is much further south/east than modeled and also moving much faster…
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 11:50:48 AM
Which will effectively end the threat for Memphis soon and much of W TN not much longer after. This is much further south/east than modeled and also moving much faster…

yep it does look that way for now, just shows risk zones are just that a "risk" not a forecast, we just never know what will happen
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 11:53:53 AM
Wind shear is highly visible in satellite pictures.  As soon as storms develop in Alabama, the tops are blown off rapidly to the east--all way over into GA and SC.  The wind is really ripping in the upper troposphere.     
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 11:56:46 AM
Which will effectively end the threat for Memphis soon and much of W TN not much longer after. This is much further south/east than modeled and also moving much faster…

MesoA RAP shows it riding the Mississippi northward.  Question is, will it?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 11:56:57 AM
So middle TN and this threat is almost over?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 11:57:25 AM
So middle TN and this threat is almost over?

**** no.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 11:59:52 AM
MesoA RAP shows it riding the Mississippi northward.  Question is, will it?

It thinks somehow it’s going to back
NW to Jonesboro… guess we’ll see lol
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 12:00:20 PM
**** no.
Just asking since Kevin said much further east and south
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 12:01:35 PM
MesoA RAP shows it riding the Mississippi northward.  Question is, will it?
yeah we got get slp up in further Missouri souther. Iowa even for midsouth classic . April coming be our chance as things nudge north . But that’s another day
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 12:03:50 PM
So where do you guys recommend taking shelter? We have no interior rooms, closets, downstairs bathtub, hallway without a door or window, crawl space, or basement. It is top priority in houses we look at to have a safer space in the future haha. My options are a pantry on an exterior wall,  interior wall corner of a dining room with only small windows, coat closet on exterior wall but with a porch to the other side, or hallway by front door.

When we were chasing last week, we looked for nearby hospitals as an options if things got beyond our comfort zone. You might check your local hospital to see if they would allow shelter.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 12:05:22 PM
Under a rare MRX issued Flash Flood Warning right now. We were still saturated from last week’s event. Lots of flooding around the area right now. 1.80” in the gauge.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 12:06:11 PM
Metro obs confirm the surface low is on top of the metro. If West TN is to remain at risk it definitely needs to move more north than northwest. Too soon to say if that changes the Middle TN impacts. Really a faster movement means the window is shorter so you would want deep convection firing very soon in N MS…
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 12:09:50 PM
I think SPC’s watch is pretty perfectly placed for this and accounts for the trends. I’m not sure if one will ever be required to the Northwest but we’ll see….
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 12:10:30 PM
Looks like there’s a touchdown SW of moundville, AL. Moving at 40kts.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 12:11:56 PM
Under a rare MRX issued Flash Flood Warning right now. We were still saturated from last week’s event. Lots of flooding around the area right now. 1.80” in the gauge.

I think flooding might be another headline of this weather event apart from wind/tornadoes in east TN.  Ravine behind house is raging.  Still lots of heavy rain to move through the foothills, not counting the second round of convection late this afternoon. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 12:14:53 PM
Just asking since Kevin said much further east and south

As long as you are still on the south/east side of the low, it's still game on until FROPA.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: ChrisPC on March 25, 2021, 12:15:13 PM
I think that myth got squashed after 4/27.  One of the strongest tornadoes, and EF4, occurred in Blount Co--in the Smoky Mtn. National Park.

One tornado went right over Lookout Mountain. We were visiting Chattanooga, and left the day before just to be safe. I saw a tornado photo the next day that was taken in front of our hotel!
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: ChrisPC on March 25, 2021, 12:19:05 PM
Looks like there’s a touchdown SW of moundville, AL. Moving at 40kts.

Good Lord. That thing has a clearly visible eye on BMX radar.  ::wow::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 12:19:44 PM
Clear TDS.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Jilly on March 25, 2021, 12:21:04 PM
So where do you guys recommend taking shelter? We have no interior rooms, closets, downstairs bathtub, hallway without a door or window, crawl space, or basement. It is top priority in houses we look at to have a safer space in the future haha. My options are a pantry on an exterior wall,  interior wall corner of a dining room with only small windows, coat closet on exterior wall but with a porch to the other side, or hallway by front door.
We made arrangement to go to a neighbor's with a basement if needed, tonight.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 12:22:36 PM
Good Lord. That thing has a clearly visible eye on BMX radar.  ::wow::

it's still going 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Beth on March 25, 2021, 12:22:54 PM
Looks like it is headed right towards Bham too. I have so much family there too. 😳
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 12:23:21 PM
We made arrangement to go to a neighbor's with a basement if needed, tonight.
I had a great storm shelter in the basement at our old house. The new house has a fairly tall crawlspace with block walls. That’s where we will go tonight if needed. I’ve already unlatched the door. Got our bike helmets ready also.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 12:23:49 PM
HRRR still has the broken line forming along the cold front right at the TN River late afternoon so the threat there is certainly not over. Very little over W TN however. Keep in mind as recently as this morning this broken line was forming over Eastern Arkansas with widespread broad warm sector supercells. The faster movement also narrows the geography and window for the broad discrete cell threat to more AL/MS. The cold front storms still may be semi discrete and have a tornado risk however…
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: ChrisPC on March 25, 2021, 12:28:27 PM
James Spann is live on the air, and explaining correlation coefficient right now. He’s pointing out the obvious debris ball. The man is a treasure.  ::applause::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 12:33:06 PM
storms are starting to fire west of the watch area as well, i hope people don't think where this first watch is is the only initiation zone

the storms in west central mississippi have a big northward component as well
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 12:45:37 PM
Thinking maybe another 3/17.  Could SPC go 0-2.By 3 we will know.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 12:49:50 PM
Thinking maybe another 3/17.  Could SPC go 0-2.By 3 we will know.

it's 12:45 , way early to call this another 3/17 which was no walk in the park either.....storms are firing in west mississippi and moving north north east , the warm front is close to passing into tn now....but i agree with you by 3pm we will know how this will play out
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 12:50:34 PM
Thinking maybe another 3/17.  Could SPC go 0-2.By 3 we will know.
Okay look, you REALLY need to stop.

Also, per confirmed reports, the risk on St. Patrick’s Day did in fact verify, particularly the 45% zone.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 12:52:10 PM
So far, the HRRR has nailed the convection in Alabama. Interesting to see how well it does this afternoon for TN.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 12:53:50 PM
BMX is about to turn it over to ATL so they can take shelter  ::wow::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 12:55:04 PM
BMX is about to turn it over to ATL so they can take shelter  ::wow::
That’s not shocking at all. Their office is adjacent to I-65 at the Shelby County Airport. The radar is not even 2 miles east of the office.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: c_phillips on March 25, 2021, 12:57:18 PM
There is a noticeable difference in the feel of the air as I walked out for lunch earlier and now.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 25, 2021, 12:58:57 PM
I feel like NashSevere is downplaying this just a little too much
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 12:59:52 PM
Thunder has become infrequent, but the rain continues to pour between moderate and heavy.  Going on for hours now.  Temp at 58.  Feels chilly outside when the wind blows, and certainly doesn't feel like a severe weather day, but everything says to get ready to spend some time in the partial basement tonight. 

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 01:00:50 PM
That’s not shocking at all. Their office is adjacent to I-65 at the Shelby County Airport. The radar is not even 2 miles east of the office.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The ABC33/40 studio is almost dead center of the polygon.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 01:04:04 PM
Tornadic storms between Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, while we wait to see if the threat here verifies.

I’ve seen this movie before.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 01:04:10 PM
I've family right there by Lake Purdy. It's pretty hilly there though so, they should be fine..............
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: snowdog on March 25, 2021, 01:06:53 PM
Wonder if it will cycle again or stay on the ground through Birmingham? Not good.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 01:08:28 PM
Wonder if it will cycle again or stay on the ground through Birmingham? Not good.

it will stay south of b-ham central, southern places like pelham need to look out for sure
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 01:08:46 PM
James Spann just now: "Hope is not a plan."

Truth. But I keep hoping with a back-up plan
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: snowdog on March 25, 2021, 01:12:33 PM
Do we have another on the ground in MS?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 01:12:55 PM
I've family right there by Lake Purdy. It's pretty hilly there though so, they should be fine..............

They are right in the path of that tornado..hopefully they're watching Spann.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 01:14:08 PM
It's pretty hilly there though so, they should be fine..............

That's not how it works, unfortunately.

Hoping they will be okay.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 01:16:33 PM
Stuff Spann Says; "It's hanging in there like a hair in a biscuit."
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 01:17:27 PM
it is interesting how far south this initiated and other than b-ham nothing really too discrete warning -wise
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 01:19:01 PM
That's not how it works, unfortunately.

Hoping they will be okay.

I know, should have put my "/s" in.  Have my fingers crossed for them.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 01:19:53 PM
Patchy sun in Primm Springs. Still mostly cloudy.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 01:24:05 PM
nothing is wanting to get initiated severe-wise north of 1-20 for now it seems
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 01:25:05 PM
Sun is out now here. 63/63. Rare to be fully saturated without fog/rain occurring.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 01:25:58 PM
nothing is wanting to get initiated severe-wise north of 1-20 for now it seems

I expect that to change over the next hour or two. Instability continues to build
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 01:28:54 PM
Sun is out now here. 63/63. Rare to be fully saturated without fog/rain occurring.

Wow. Did anyone say "instability?" Mother Nature shipped it to your house.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: ChrisPC on March 25, 2021, 01:29:03 PM
Do we have another on the ground in MS?

Smith County, MS. It’s one of, if not the most TOR warned county in America. I grew up near there.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 01:34:25 PM
Sun is out now here. 63/63. Rare to be fully saturated without fog/rain occurring.

Still pouring here, but the back edge is rapidly approaching.  Crossing Knox now.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: snowdog on March 25, 2021, 01:35:33 PM
Suns out guns out here.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 01:37:20 PM
Suns out guns out here.

Nature's guns are definitely out. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 01:37:37 PM
it has gotten a bit muggy out here in lewis county as well in past hour, temp is also at 65 now
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 01:38:39 PM
TOR EMERGENCY for Shelby Co ALABAMA. Moses.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 01:41:25 PM
Just watching Danielle Breezy's FB update. People in comments sections wear me out. And, she's good enough to respond to them live.

Shows map with RPM model showing cells, and comments flooding in,

"What about {this town}?"
"What about {that town}?"
"What time will it hit...?"

People, you're all under the same threat area- it all depends on where the individual storms form and track. She's not going to be able to get specific about it at your house.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 01:42:10 PM
The 14Z HRRR is very concerning for my area on two fronts: it has 2 rounds of supercellular storms coming through between hours 10-14, and it has widespread 3-5+” ADDITIONAL rainfall amounts.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 01:45:05 PM
ABC3340 just caught the Shelby Co TOR on traffic cam.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 01:46:07 PM
Cell west of Aliceville, AL may be the next long tracker...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 01:46:31 PM
pretty sure warm front has made it to 412 corridor very muggy now
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bartch on March 25, 2021, 01:47:55 PM
Are we looking at another round firing off in MS again once atmosphere recovers a bit later this afternoon?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 01:48:41 PM
Are we looking at another round firing off in MS again once atmosphere recovers a bit later this afternoon?

In short, yes.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 01:50:19 PM
Just watching Danielle Breezy's FB update. People in comments sections wear me out. And, she's good enough to respond to them live.

Shows map with RPM model showing cells, and comments flooding in,

"What about {this town}?"
"What about {that town}?"
"What time will it hit...?"

People, you're all under the same threat area- it all depends on where the individual storms form and track. She's not going to be able to get specific about it at your house.

You're reminding me how much I can't stand people

Same people asking all these questions are the types to blame everything on the forecasters and the local media for either not warning them enough or for "overhyping" such events if it doesn't end up as bad as the forecast. Lose/lose situation.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mmryan on March 25, 2021, 01:51:19 PM
Coat closet with porch on the other side sounds like the best bet. At least there's a little something overhanging on the other side.

It's also next to a half bath so maybe more reinforced from plumbing. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: collinsk on March 25, 2021, 01:53:17 PM
People should not be complaining or critical of the mets...doing best they can. We should be grateful if Mid TN misses out.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 01:54:14 PM
It's also next to a half bath so maybe more reinforced from plumbing.

Yes- even another reason.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: TNIRISHMAN7 on March 25, 2021, 01:54:48 PM
Suns been out here in Lebanon.  TWC high here earlier this morning was 68-69 it is now 71.  Sun is hot at my house.  Don’t know if that means much.  Thanks for all the updates guys.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: justinmundie on March 25, 2021, 01:55:01 PM
Tornado went about a mile south of my brother's house in Hoover.

this is wild. storm went south of me, torrential rain from it, and temps have risen 4 degrees
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 01:55:24 PM
I’m thinking just looking at radar trends the threat is going to be mostly East 65 actually towards the Tennessee Alabama Georgia triangle. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 01:57:47 PM
I’m thinking just looking at radar trends the threat is going to be mostly East 65 actually towards the Tennessee Alabama Georgia triangle. 

Little more west than that.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 01:58:18 PM
Tornado went about a mile south of my brother's house in Hoover.

this is wild. storm went south of me, torrential rain from it, and temps have risen 4 degrees

i thought about you all when that warning came out, my uncle is on that shelby talladega county area, was worried about him too
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 01:59:00 PM
Little more west than that.

I do think honestly memphis up to dyersburg "might" can breathe a sigh of relief
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 01:59:35 PM
I do think honestly memphis up to dyersburg "might" can breathe a sigh of relief

Probably, but I'm leaning more towards the US 64 corridor, all the way to Selmer-ish.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 02:00:16 PM
73/64 IMBY, west Murfreesboro.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 02:00:32 PM
tornado warning in east georgia????
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 02:01:31 PM
tornado warning in east georgia????

Yep, and far NW South Carolina.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 02:06:22 PM
Inflow notch is developing on the storm approaching Chattanooga from NE Alabama. It’s all on its own. Rotation is weak currently, but I am keeping a close eye on it. It will go right over the house in the next 35 minutes.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 02:08:40 PM
Spann's house was hit. He just said on air.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 02:09:19 PM
Sounds like Spann's personal residence took a direct hit with major damage. God love him.  :(
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 02:09:45 PM
He had to step away to make sure his wife was okay.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 02:11:39 PM
Sounds like Spann's personal residence took a direct hit with major damage. God love him.  :(

hate that, he is the absolute best there is
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: collinsk on March 25, 2021, 02:15:18 PM
Prayers for Mr. Spann....I have a question....I know I may get pummeled for asking....Are any of you seeing Mid TN stabilizing and dodging this? I hope I am right.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 02:16:08 PM
Prayers for Mr. Spann....I have a question....I know I may get pummeled for asking....Are any of you seeing Mid TN stabilizing and dodging this? I hope I am right.

No. We're just getting started. Keep an eye on North MS and NW AL for what's to come.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: collinsk on March 25, 2021, 02:17:20 PM
thanks nismowx
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Beth on March 25, 2021, 02:18:28 PM
Sounds Pell city and Northern part of Bham have quite a bit of damage and injuries.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: RobD on March 25, 2021, 02:20:17 PM
Oh no! Poor James Spann. Was watching him live for a bit but turned away :(
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 02:22:48 PM
Prayers for Mr. Spann....I have a question....I know I may get pummeled for asking....Are any of you seeing Mid TN stabilizing and dodging this? I hope I am right.

unstable air doesn't seem to be an issue, it is nice and warm/muggy in s/w mid state, it's just waiting on things to initiate in north ms and west tn if it does
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 02:24:45 PM
Just watching Danielle Breezy's FB update. People in comments sections wear me out. And, she's good enough to respond to them live.

Shows map with RPM model showing cells, and comments flooding in,

"What about {this town}?"
"What about {that town}?"
"What time will it hit...?"

People, you're all under the same threat area- it all depends on where the individual storms form and track. She's not going to be able to get specific about it at your house.

People don't want to do the work to get the information for themselves, but be spoon fed everything.  Pull up the radar, find your location, and you'll figure out the when and where. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Flash on March 25, 2021, 02:25:31 PM
I can't remember the last time I've seen Spann so shaken up. The tracks and strengths of these tornadoes have been unfortunate so far.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 02:29:17 PM
I can't remember the last time I've seen Spann so shaken up. The tracks and strengths of these tornadoes have been unfortunate so far.

I don't see him as shaken up. He has been very professional, as you would expect of him. He is a treasure. Hate that his house was hit but glad his wife was in their shelter. I think he stepped away for a couple of minutes to check on her.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 02:30:57 PM
Outside of that one monster cell, nothing else really stands out to me. Most of that convection between I-20 and the TN state line in AL is a blobby mess. Probably not going to get anything tornadic out of that.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 02:31:41 PM
The HRRR does show this cluttered batch of rain giving way to more isolated supercells across AL and far SE TN.

It does develop some storms over north MS and west TN, but it definitely doesn’t have them nearly as strong as the AL cells
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 02:31:55 PM
I swear , if a low pressure was in minnesota with a severe weather threat, somehow it would find a way to spin up a tornado in the birmingham metro
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 02:34:37 PM
Seeing the large mass of storms in AL heading toward east TN gives me flashbacks of 4/27.  I got home about this time from work, and heard James Spann giving a similar broadcast, and watched a parade of supercells march up through the east TN valley well into the night. 

Guess I'll have an energy drink.  Cause, I'll probably be up late.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 02:34:43 PM
our meso is up now for tornado watch for middle tn back towards jackson
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 02:35:13 PM
Mesoscale Discussion 0257
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

   Valid 251929Z - 252130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat of severe storms including tornadoes will
   increase by late afternoon into Middle Tennessee and persist through
   the evening. A watch may be issued by 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis currently shows a warm front into far
   southwestern TN extending east/southeast into northern AL.
   Meanwhile, another warm front extended from the developing surface
   low from southern IL into central KY.

   In between these two fronts, gradual warming is taking place, with
   temperatures now into the low 70s F. MUCAPE currently remains below
   1000 J/kg as a result of dewpoints near 60 F.

   Strengthening 850 mb winds out of the southwest later today should
   aid moisture advection out of MS into Middle TN, with areas of
   heating helping to destabilize as well. Shear will become
   increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells in the 21-03Z time
   frame, and a few tornadoes are anticipated as the mid 60s F
   dewpoints arrive later today. With the more unstable air in place,
   effective SRH may reach 400-500 m2/s2.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Flash on March 25, 2021, 02:35:34 PM
I don't see him as shaken up. He has been very professional, as you would expect of him. He is a treasure. Hate that his house was hit but glad his wife was in their shelter. I think he stepped away for a couple of minutes to check on her.

Definitely. He's always the consummate professional. I was simply implying the deep concern in his voice. I think we can all resonate and feel it tangibly today.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 02:36:43 PM
Winds across MS are far more veered than modeled which is why convection is struggling to develop as it’s led to decreased surface convergence especially in the wake of the mid level wave that’s triggered the far E MS and AL storms.

Storms are going to struggle to develop until the low further strengthens leading to increasing uplift. Would say the threat is close to over for W TN and N MS…. Except areas near the TN river.

Still a situation for Middle Tn however… though it’s notable HRRR is having trouble organizing convection into sustaining supercells. Will see if that is right or not…
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 02:36:51 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0257.html (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0257.html)

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0257.gif)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 02:39:32 PM


   Mesoscale Discussion 0258
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Areas affected...The mid-Mississippi River Valley and lower Ohio
   River Valley Region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

   Valid 251933Z - 252130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely in the coming hours as a surface
   low and associated warm front continue to lift northward through the
   late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past couple of hours have
   shown 2-3 mb surface pressure falls over northeast AR into the lower
   OH River Valley region. The surface low located over northeast AR
   continues to consolidate and is expected to deepen further as it
   lifts to the north/northeast. As this occurs, an associated surface
   warm front will lift to the north and allow a higher theta-e air
   mass (noted by temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s) to overspread
   the mid-MS River Valley and lower OH River Valley regions and allow
   MLCAPE to increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Storms are forecast
   to develop along the surface warm front and surface trough in the
   vicinity of the low, and southwesterly 60-70 knots of effective bulk
   shear will help support discrete to semi-discrete storm modes. Along
   with a hail/wind threat, backed low-level winds within the open warm
   sector will support ESRH values on the order of 300 m2/s2 and a
   tornado threat with any discrete convection that can develop. Recent
   guidance suggests storm initiation within this region may occur
   within the 22-00 UTC time frame. A tornado watch will likely be
   needed in the coming hours to address this concern.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 03/25/2021
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 02:41:39 PM
something not to overlook, central Bama is having some BIG rains and flooding, i am wondering if they can get anything else going after this round
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 02:42:35 PM
Keep an eye on the cell south of Tupelo, MS..
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 02:43:34 PM
Outside of that one monster cell, nothing else really stands out to me. Most of that convection between I-20 and the TN state line in AL is a blobby mess. Probably not going to get anything tornadic out of that.

Rain finally stopped here, but the ground is saturated.  It looks to be a flash flooding threat for east TN at the very least. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 02:43:49 PM
Off-and-on sun and clouds here. Mostly clouds.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bigdog660 on March 25, 2021, 02:43:58 PM
Notice the warm front position difference between MD 0257 and MD 0258. What's up with that? The warm front couldn't have moved that much, right?

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 02:45:40 PM
Notice the warm front position difference between MD 0257 and MD 0258. What's up with that? The warm front couldn't have moved that much, right?

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

There are two warm fronts. One near the surface low depicted in MD258 and then the second, more unstable, warm front depicted in 257
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: snowdog on March 25, 2021, 02:45:45 PM
Will the lack of action southwest of us in MS, thus far, possibly increase our chances? Seems I read one of yall talking about this yesterday.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 02:47:02 PM
Besides the cells in MS, starting to keep an eye on any new initialization north from there. The cells in N MS appears "strung out" in mini-lines as if a strong flow is shearing them from SW to NE.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 02:47:54 PM
Will the lack of action southwest of us in MS, thus far, possibly increase our chances? Seems I read one of yall talking about this yesterday.

i think it could "possibly" its an open southwest to northeast warm sector pumping in potentially whereas the eastern sections have a LOT of rain to their south??? I may be wrong?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 02:52:16 PM
That Birmingham cell is still going strong and is producing another tornado just NW of Jacksonville, AL.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 02:53:25 PM
Twin TDS sigs showing up on that storm down in AL now.  ::wow::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 02:55:09 PM
TOR Warning for the cell near Red Bay, AL.

000
WFUS54 KHUN 251953
TORHUN
ALC033-059-077-252030-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0004.210325T1953Z-210325T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
253 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...
  SOUTHWESTERN COLBERT COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...
  NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT.

* AT 253 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
  WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELGREEN, OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
  RED BAY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FLORENCE, MUSCLE SHOALS, SHEFFIELD, TUSCUMBIA, LITTLEVILLE, POSEY
  LOOP, CEDAR CREEK RESERVOIR, SRYGLEY CHURCH, NEW BETHEL AND BARTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 8801 3454 8812 3486 8777 3466 8758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 229DEG 30KT 3454 8797

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75

$$

25
 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 02:56:08 PM
Yep- won’t be long until that one encroaches the southern TN state line.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: memphishogfan on March 25, 2021, 02:56:26 PM
Notice the warm front position difference between MD 0257 and MD 0258. What's up with that? The warm front couldn't have moved that much, right?

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

I think that orange line is is the main warm front where the greatest instability is.

In manila its 67/64 but in Memphis its 72/65, and Yazoo, MS 80/70
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: rocket41 on March 25, 2021, 02:57:20 PM
How much weight can we put on the 18z NAM 3k right now.  It still looks pretty intense for my area of west TN.

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 03:01:59 PM
Obviously the potential for tornadoes is very troubling, but please don’t anyone overlook the flash flood potential here. The radar is extremely concerning for all of east TN. We could easily see 6-8” storm total amounts from this over a 15 hour timeframe.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 03:02:13 PM
How much weight can we put on the 18z NAM 3k right now.  It still looks pretty intense for my area of west TN.

all things are plausible
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: misscaseyk on March 25, 2021, 03:04:07 PM
Still a cool wind blowing here in west Nashville, lots of clouds in all directions, and a lack of storm feels outside.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Flash on March 25, 2021, 03:12:31 PM
FWIW...temps overperforming here in the Bluff. Sittin' at 72 currently.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 03:17:36 PM
Has there been any warnings in the high risk in MS? To me it look like any threat is south and East of Shelbyville.  The storms in North AL are clustered.  Slim chance of anything in that area as the environment will be worked over.  I wonder maybe the SPC throws out outlooks and watches to easily these days?  I know it’s a darn if for darn if don’t but 2 high risks talking MS that had nothing.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 03:22:27 PM
Updated Day 1: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html- main change is a trimming of risk area over southwestern side over MS. The text still anticipates new development in TN.

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 03:22:47 PM
From Mid-South Storm Chasers:

Violent motion in this damaging tornado that occurred earlier in the southern Birmingham, AL metro. This was from Griffin Park at Eagle Point.

 https://twitter.com/WBRCnews/status/1375171713495937028?s=09
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 03:23:51 PM
Has there been any warnings in the high risk in MS? To me it look like any threat is south and East of Shelbyville.  The storms in North AL are clustered.  Slim chance of anything in that area as the environment will be worked over.  I wonder maybe the SPC throws out outlooks and watches to easily these days?  I know it’s a darn if for darn if don’t but 2 high risks talking MS that had nothing.

from spc for what it's worth

 Farther north, additional convection should form later this
   afternoon and evening across parts of western/middle TN and the mid
   MS Valley as a warm front continues to lift northward and a
   shortwave trough moves over these regions. All severe hazards appear
   possible, including the potential for strong tornadoes given the
   strength of the low-level flow/shear.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Beth on March 25, 2021, 03:24:13 PM
FWIW...temps overperforming here in the Bluff. Sittin' at 72 currently.
Yes!  Warm and humid here for sure.  Keep nudging the air con down.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 03:32:25 PM
My old high school stomping grounds in Rome, Ga are in the crosshairs of that monster cell next.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Beth on March 25, 2021, 03:36:29 PM
My old high school stomping grounds in Rome, Ga are in the crosshairs of that monster cell next.
My younger brother lives in Rome.  😳
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 03:36:46 PM
That TOR-warned cell in NW AL didn't hold together, it seems. There are a couple of other new TOR-warned cells where that one came from back in NE MS however.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 03:36:55 PM
hmmm well we are 40 minutes past the time frame the spc said it would issue watch for our region
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 03:37:28 PM
Anyone smarter than me know how to use Pidgin on OS X?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 03:40:37 PM
That storm crossing into Georgia is clearly on the ground based off of velocity.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 03:40:57 PM
Interestingly, there are parts of the Memphis Metro that were under a moderate risk of severe storms this morning that may come out of this without even seeing a tornado watch.  Thus far, not even a severe thunderstorm watch and no SPC MDs for the area.  I can't remember ever seeing that happen.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 03:41:48 PM
Never saw the sun today.  Sky darkening again.  Temp managed to get up to 63 with a dewpoint of 62 currently.  Whether or not we see severe weather, heavy rain is almost a certainty at this point seeing the blob of convection heading this way from Alabama.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 03:42:52 PM
Interestingly, there are parts of the Memphis Metro that were under a moderate risk of severe storms this morning that may come out of this without even seeing a tornado watch.  Thus far, not even a severe thunderstorm watch and no SPC MDs for the area.  I can't remember ever seeing that happen.

Prefer that over the 13 hours last Wednesday that Memphis was under a Tornado Watch when there was no real imminent threat of anything happening.

That said… back this way SPC’s forecasts have left a little bit to be desired two weeks in a row.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 03:45:32 PM
If I'm being honest- I have this nagging feeling of skepticism about the true outcome of this for much of the risk area here in TN. I suppose if activity is going to develop, it will be sudden and explosive. But, let's face it- it's going on 4PM, and there just isn't much to talk about in TN yet (thankfully).

I'm not letting my guard down yet by any stretch though.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 03:47:12 PM
Prefer that over the 13 hours last Wednesday that Memphis was under a Tornado Watch when there was no real imminent threat of anything happening.

That said… back this way SPC’s forecasts have left a little bit to be desired two weeks in a row.

I’m thinking after today they will have lost a lot of paying attention unfortunately.  They seem to be throwing out high risks easily this year.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 03:47:28 PM
northern lawrence county cell?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 03:48:11 PM
I’m thinking after today they will have lost a lot of paying attention unfortunately.  They seem to be throwing out high risks easily this year.

Amen!
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 03:48:54 PM
Tornado Watch until 11 pm for most of middle TN (minus the southern tier counties already in a watch plus Cumberland, Fentress, Pickett, and Overton counties on the Plateau)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 03:49:24 PM
I believe a new TOR watch has just been issued for much of middle/west TN into Ky.  At least I saw an alert about it.

Yep.  Just went up.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0051.html (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0051.html)

Goes up to southern IN and IL.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 03:52:36 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0051.html - note: it doesn't appear to be a PDS, even though much of it is within the Moderate risk.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 03:52:40 PM
Prefer that over the 13 hours last Wednesday that Memphis was under a Tornado Watch when there was no real imminent threat of anything happening.

That said… back this way SPC’s forecasts have left a little bit to be desired two weeks in a row.

Completely agree.  And part of that watch was a PDS watch.  ???
I guess its still too early to call this a bust but me talking up the risk of high and moderate severe weather days to friends and family and this absolutely nothing happening is not good and will just further reinforce complacency.  If the day ends with this busting with only a couple confirmed tornado's, the role of junk convection hindering these outbreaks may need to be studied more.  That certainly hasn't helped today's setup both here and eastward.  I will always support the NWS and SPC publicly but I like to think in these communities are where constructive criticism can be discussed openly.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matt on March 25, 2021, 03:53:27 PM
What’s interesting is that thus far the only action has been in the messy area that has been dealing with convection all day. Meanwhile in West and Middle Tennessee it has been clear for hours and nothing has gotten going.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 03:53:56 PM
Quote
he NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of
     Southern Illinois
     Southern Indiana
     Western and Central Kentucky
     Southeast Missouri
     Northeast Mississippi
     Western and Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon
   from southern Illinois southward into west Tennessee and track
   across the watch area.  Rapidly strengthening winds aloft will
   increase the risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few
   tornadoes.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 03:56:53 PM
What’s interesting is that thus far the only action has been in the messy area that has been dealing with convection all day. Meanwhile in West and Middle Tennessee it has been clear for hours and nothing has gotten going.

Zero instability.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 03:58:36 PM
Zero instability.

Because we didn't clear out until around 2 pm and had lingering showers up past 1.  Even now its party to mostly cloudy.  Same thing happened last week.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 03:59:03 PM
What’s interesting is that thus far the only action has been in the messy area that has been dealing with convection all day. Meanwhile in West and Middle Tennessee it has been clear for hours and nothing has gotten going.

I think convective development further to the south can be as much an inhibiting factor as junk convection in the immediate area.

We've talked about complexes along the Gulf coast cutting off flow from the South. I have suspected storms firing in AL before things get going here can also inhibit initialization here. I realize there's more to the meteorology than that though.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 03:59:44 PM
Very heavy rain about to move back into east TN.  Ground is saturated here with rapid runoff continuing after earlier heavy rain.  Flooding may be the headline event over this way.  I'll take that over tornadoes.  But the night is young, and the frontal passage is a long way off.  Let's hope low instability saves the day.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:00:46 PM
Zero instability.

Really hard to get a major severe outbreak going in the area if that's the case.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 04:01:18 PM
Severe Thunderstorm coming for Maury.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 04:01:35 PM
Because we didn't clear out until around 2 pm and had lingering showers up past 1.  Even now its party to mostly cloudy.  Same thing happened last week.

i haven't had a raindrop since 10:30 and lots of filtered sunshine here in s/w middle
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 04:01:49 PM
I think convective development further to the south can be as much an inhibiting factor as junk convection in the immediate area.

We've talked about complexes along the Gulf coast cutting off flow from the South. I have suspected storms firing in AL before things get going here can also inhibit initialization here. I realize there's more to the meteorology than that though.

It keeps the warm front from advancing northward.

I still think, as the low strengths and moves NW of us, we will see it move into middle TN, but the insanely high values that the models depicted this time yesterday won’t be happening. Thankfully.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 04:02:39 PM
Flooding may end up being the real headline when all is said and done.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 04:02:45 PM
Severe Thunderstorm coming for Maury.

been watching that one since lawrence county, its trying its hardest
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Scot on March 25, 2021, 04:03:31 PM
Sadly after last week and this week, people are going to be less likely to listen to the warnings in the future.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 04:03:48 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0051.html - note: it doesn't appear to be a PDS, even though much of it is within the Moderate risk.

(https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BIOoz2lCjHU/VkR1Ooxrs2I/AAAAAAAAAEs/k77fruRju4w/s1600/Nick-Young-meme-Through-the-Len-grone-que-es-esta-mierda-vagonettas.gif)

What's up with that giant area to the NW of us?

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 04:04:28 PM
(https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BIOoz2lCjHU/VkR1Ooxrs2I/AAAAAAAAAEs/k77fruRju4w/s1600/Nick-Young-meme-Through-the-Len-grone-que-es-esta-mierda-vagonettas.gif)

What's up with that giant area to the NW of us?

The triple point play
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matt on March 25, 2021, 04:05:11 PM
Cell in Maury County getting it’s act together. I’d bet on some big hail with it.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 04:07:04 PM
oh boy, south tuscaloosa could get hit in a half hour
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:07:22 PM
It keeps the warm front from advancing northward.

I still think, as the low strengths and moves NW of us, we will see it move into middle TN, but the insanely high values that the models depicted this time yesterday won’t be happening. Thankfully.

The window gets a whole lot tighter now in any case before the dynamics pull on through, I would think.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 04:07:29 PM
Cell in Maury County getting it’s act together. I’d bet on some big hail with it.

It’s a left mover which usually are good hail producers… generally not wind/tornado producers
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: randallarms on March 25, 2021, 04:07:46 PM
Just came through Hayden, AL storm. This atmosphere is charged for sure.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 04:09:11 PM
Looks like that cell went just south of Rome and may have hit Lindale. That whole area is in a radar hole, so it can be hard to decipher rotation. Lindale was always a running joke in high school for constantly getting hit with tornados. They got nailed on 4/27 also.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:09:24 PM
Well, I guess all I had to do was say something... now that new SVR warning is at my doorstep.

I bet it is a hailer.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 04:10:02 PM
Sadly after last week and this week, people are going to be less likely to listen to the warnings in the future.


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I agree.  I rarely hype the weather to friends and family but have the past 2 systems due to the moderate and high risk only for nothing to happen.
I am not sure if the problem is over dependency on model data or what (as the model data justifies their forecast), but the SPC has missed on two events in a row. Yes there have been tornadoes today but it has not come close to verifying the risk stats for high and moderate risk.  Saying "we dodged a bullet" only goes so far too in keeping people to take the weather headlines seriously. Perhaps someone with more meteorological knowledge can speak to what if anything they could be doing wrong.  In any case, I'd hate to be in the SPC office tomorrow.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 04:10:26 PM
At this point SPC is probably hoping for at least 1 tornado warning in this new watch. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:10:29 PM
Cell is moving NE at 80 mph.  ::wow::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 04:11:43 PM
I agree.  I rarely hype the weather to friends and family but have the past 2 systems due to the moderate and high risk only for nothing to happen.
I am not sure if the problem is over dependency on model data or what (as the model data justifies their forecast), but the SPC has missed on two events in a row. Yes there have been tornadoes today but it has not come close to verifying the risk stats for high and moderate risk.  Saying "we dodged a bullet" only goes so far too in keeping people to take the weather headlines seriously. Perhaps someone with more meteorological knowledge can speak to what if anything they could be doing wrong.  In any case, I hate to be in the SPC office tomorrow.

I have already heard from several that they will treat severe wx like snow from now on.  Believe it when it’s happening.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 04:12:15 PM
Cell is moving NE at 80 mph.  ::wow::

I thought that was a typo, then they reissued  ::wow::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 04:12:58 PM
The HRRR continues to want to pop some cells across western TN and bring them across middle TN over the next few hours. Looking at current radar I’ll believe it when I see it, unless it is just explosive development.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 25, 2021, 04:14:40 PM
Its actually 72/67 in Dyersburg and we have had full sun for a while. Luckily location is going to save us.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:15:32 PM
And, I would think these storms moving up only now will serve to stabilize the local environment.

A little late in the day destabilize much after that.

However, there are other variables like the LLJ that could come into play after dusk.

With that said... I now hear thunder in Nolensville, and it's getting quite dark...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Susan on March 25, 2021, 04:15:59 PM
Quarter inch hail here.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 04:16:45 PM
That hail core looks nasty moving into Nashville.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 04:17:12 PM
I agree.  I rarely hype the weather to friends and family but have the past 2 systems due to the moderate and high risk only for nothing to happen.
I am not sure if the problem is over dependency on model data or what (as the model data justifies their forecast), but the SPC has missed on two events in a row. Yes there have been tornadoes today but it has not come close to verifying the risk stats for high and moderate risk.  Saying "we dodged a bullet" only goes so far too in keeping people to take the weather headlines seriously. Perhaps someone with more meteorological knowledge can speak to what if anything they could be doing wrong.  In any case, I hate to be in the SPC office tomorrow.
two best severe weather forecasters at the helm also ...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:18:48 PM
There is a short line trying to get going a little more from about Perry County and southwest from there.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 04:19:41 PM
Pretty intense looking storm approaching Nashville from the south.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:20:36 PM
Worst of the hail appears to be around Brentwood and west from there, making a b-line toward downtown.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 25, 2021, 04:20:42 PM
This just isn't happening. I hyped the heck out of this one to friends and family on social media because I didn't think there could be a bust like this twice in a row, but it's looking more and more like I'm going to have to wipe the egg off my face.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 04:20:56 PM
The HRRR continues to want to pop some cells across western TN and bring them across middle TN over the next few hours. Looking at current radar I’ll believe it when I see it, unless it is just explosive development.

i know , i just do not see explosive development happening, and i agree with others, if this doesn't pan out again, my family will NEVER listen to me again, looking at 2 moderate risk busts potentially unless something drastic happens. i put my faith in SPC
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 04:23:43 PM
I will say the storm coming in the Brentwood definitely is green and the lighting intense
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:24:17 PM
Going green here.  ::wow::

Sign of a hail core nearby...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 04:24:29 PM
i know , i just do not see explosive development happening, and i agree with others, if this doesn't pan out again, my family will NEVER listen to me again, looking at 2 moderate risk busts potentially unless something drastic happens
I am glad I am not the only one feeling the burn.  My one saving grace is I mentioned the lingering shows may save us here in the Memphis metro area just based on experience.  Other than that though... feels bad man  :( .  The postmortem will at least be interesting.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 04:24:48 PM
As heavy as the storm as I say that’s working over the atmosphere
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Susan on March 25, 2021, 04:25:12 PM
That was crazy. Heavy hail for about 1 minutes and sideways deluge of rain for 3.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 04:25:16 PM
Going green here.  ::wow::

Sign of a hail core nearby...
Your local roofers are already dialing the insurance companies.  ::rofl::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 04:25:42 PM
Sadly after last week and this week, people are going to be less likely to listen to the warnings in the future.


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Ya know what? Screw 'em. They're adults, it's their fault if they can't figure out a forecast is never certain. I don't feel sorry for people who don't take things seriously
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:26:32 PM
Gusty winds here... range of 30-40mph, I think.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 04:26:47 PM
Ya know what? Screw 'em. They're adults, it's their fault if they can't figure out a forecast is never certain. I don't feel sorry for people who don't take things seriously

Easy to say that but when they are friends and family you still care for their well being even if they might not.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 04:27:10 PM
As heavy as the storm as I say that’s working over the atmosphere

It may, but doubtful.  Thing's moving in/out at 80mph.  How much storm stuff do you think it's using?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 04:29:45 PM
Moderate rain falling at 62.  No lightning or thunder.  Just a water logged front yard.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:30:31 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37fm_BaNeB0

Live coverage by @NashvilleSevereWx
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 04:32:21 PM
I think it just went TVS in Oak Hill.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 04:33:37 PM
I will say now that that storm has passed the atmosphere and everything in the way the atmosphere is acting seems different
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: angrypug on March 25, 2021, 04:34:55 PM
Ya know what? Screw 'em. They're adults, it's their fault if they can't figure out a forecast is never certain. I don't feel sorry for people who don't take things seriously

I was a few miles from touchdown but was involved in cleanup/recovery etc of the Cookeville tornado last year.  Seeing the amount of violence, destruction and loss of life that occurred is humbling and I have kept up with weather events for 30 years.  Until you see it firsthand, it is difficult to understand what can happen even if its unlikely. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:35:31 PM
It's already past and lightening up here... sun has actually come out.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 04:35:33 PM
I'm really not trying to harp on this, but it is really amazing to me that I was in a moderate risk of severe weather this morning and there has yet to be even a single mesoscale discussion for my immediate area. ::shrug::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 04:37:31 PM
We are seeing likely 2+ inch diameter hail in East Nashville right now.  The DBZ is maxed out.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 04:38:30 PM
I think it just went TVS in Oak Hill.
It’s elevated & north of the big surface warm front. Solid hailer at worst, as has been confirmed.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormStalker on March 25, 2021, 04:39:38 PM
Looks like I'll be getting hammered with hail here soon. I seriously hope the storm changes paths quickly.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: c_phillips on March 25, 2021, 04:40:40 PM
Looks like a large tornado on the ground SW of Birmingham. NWS says debris has been lofted to 15k feet. Has had a pronounced TDS for a while.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 04:41:22 PM
It’s elevated & north of the big surface warm front. Solid hailer at worst, as has been confirmed.


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Thanks for clarifying, RadarScope had it marked as a tornado with 3' hail. Glad to see it was incorrect.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 25, 2021, 04:43:13 PM
Ok, north Miss and the far western end of Middle TN is starting to get that HRRR look that was modeled.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:44:09 PM
Not good- another TDS... worse looking than the earlier one now southwest of BHM heading the general direction of the same areas hit earlier.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 04:44:55 PM
Ok, north Miss and the far western end of Middle TN is starting to get that HRRR look that was modeled.

yep just saw that as well, starting to intensify
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 04:46:46 PM
It does appear over the last few frames that storms are starting to ignite in West TN ever so slightly.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 04:48:53 PM
I finally purchased RadarScope after y'all said to 100 times. It is incredible. Thanks for the repetitive and relentless plugging of this fantastic app.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 04:49:15 PM
hudge wedge in alabama
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 04:49:21 PM
That’s the one outside of Birmingham
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 04:50:53 PM
There were 8,288 reported outages on NES outage map. The entire site is now down. It done got broke.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 04:51:25 PM
Wow. Big rotation north side of Bham. Trussville watch out!
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 04:51:32 PM
Check this incredible timelapse out.

https://twitter.com/ibike4c00kies/status/1375201675141599234?s=20
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: c_phillips on March 25, 2021, 04:52:41 PM
Wow. Big rotation north side of Bham. Trussville watch out!

TDS on it now
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 04:53:36 PM
It got intense quickly.  Wonder if LLJ is now increasing?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 04:55:07 PM
And the sun is out. I am just east of the dickson storm.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 04:55:12 PM
Heavy rain with low rumbles of thunder here.  Temp has dropped to 59.  I'm feeling a little less concerned about a tornadic outbreak here.  I could be wrong, but the chill in the air makes me think the warm front will remain just south of here, and most of the convection will remain more elevated.   ::fingerscrossed::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 04:55:25 PM
I finally purchased RadarScope after y'all said to 100 times. It is incredible. Thanks for the repetitive and relentless plugging of this fantastic app.

It is well worth the small price.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:56:17 PM
So, some of the cells in that weird skinny line that slices through western Middle TN are taking on suspicious shapes.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 04:58:13 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 04:58:27 PM
Storm approaching Perryville is rapidly getting organized and spacing itself out. Rotation is notably increasing as well, quickly.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matt on March 25, 2021, 05:00:07 PM
Here we go...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: c_phillips on March 25, 2021, 05:00:25 PM
Sun peeking through in Lawrenceburg.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: rocket41 on March 25, 2021, 05:01:32 PM
It does appear over the last few frames that storms are starting to ignite in West TN ever so slightly.

Defines noticeable uptick in activity over the last 30 minutes.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 05:03:40 PM
Situation for Brent/Centreville AL is about as dire as it gets. Need something to dissipate very fast...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 05:03:48 PM
That line west of Nashville is definitely gaining strength.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 05:06:18 PM
That cell southwest of BHM may turn out to be the worst of the day.... the TDS is persistent, and lowering CCs are picking up debris well north of it, presumably settling from being lofted, while the TDS continues on.  :(
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 05:06:25 PM
It's already past and lightening up here... sun has actually come out.

The sun is on full blast in Primm Springs. Are the guns coming out next?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 25, 2021, 05:06:34 PM
We had about 10 minutes of wind and heavy rain and now the sun is out again.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: wmp600 on March 25, 2021, 05:08:09 PM
West line has come into Ashland City with steady rain. Just heard large clap of thunder. Sky is really odd looking, part really dark, part overcast & part looking like it wants to be clear.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Beth on March 25, 2021, 05:09:49 PM
Getting very dark and ominous back to the west of Dickson. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 05:10:10 PM
The Brent, AL storm is pure violence.

We need to watch and see what type of separation our Western Middle TN storms do. The LLJ is cranking so we have to watch those storms as the tendency is there to spin like a top. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 05:10:39 PM
This is sickening.

[attachimg=1]
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 05:12:00 PM
my uncle lives about 30 minutes east northeast of there, i have texted him!
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 05:14:25 PM
It MAY have barely just missed Brent/Centreville to the south...not sure if there is much development on the south side of these towns
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 05:15:07 PM
Horrific.

[attachimg=1]
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 05:15:23 PM
After observing the last decade, Alabama seems to be the Oklahoma of Dixie Alley. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 05:16:06 PM
It MAY have barely just missed Brent/Centreville to the south...not sure if there is much development on the south side of these towns

Let's hope that's the case.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 05:16:15 PM
After observing the last decade, Alabama seems to be the Oklahoma of Dixie Alley.

Maybe Alabama will replace Oklahoma as THE tornado state
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matt on March 25, 2021, 05:17:38 PM
Cell in Perry now severe warned. Not sure if these are behind the warm front or ahead of it.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matt on March 25, 2021, 05:18:35 PM
And that line is beginning to break up a little. These storms would be on a bee-line towards Nashville proper.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 05:19:26 PM
Maybe Alabama will replace Oklahoma as THE tornado state
The horrific reality is there are more people and population centers in AL.  So, the impact usually is far worse. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 05:20:28 PM
https://twitter.com/pendejocristian/status/1375176994355343364?s=10

Another 100 yds and they would have been tossed.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 05:21:08 PM
Those cells are definitely splitting west of Nashville
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 05:25:04 PM
Not to be overlooked, but there's even some new development initializing further west back in West TN.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: wmp600 on March 25, 2021, 05:26:43 PM
Getting thunder here seems to be picking up. No rain at the present time.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 05:27:01 PM
When you put RadarScope on loop on that monster cell south of BHM, you can see the debris ball visibly spinning. Ranks up there among the worst things I've seen on radar.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 05:28:27 PM
When you put RadarScope on loop on that monster cell south of BHM, you can see the debris ball visibly spinning. Ranks up there among the worst things I've seen on radar.

Looks like it's on track to take out their Doppler.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 05:29:25 PM
Looks like it's on track to take out their Doppler.

BMX office is just north of the radar site. They are in discussion to take shelter and turn over to FFC.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 05:29:45 PM
Looks like it's on track to take out their Doppler.
Unless it gains some latitude very abruptly, hooks left, it’ll miss it by several miles. 


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 05:30:43 PM
The storms along of a Paducah KY to Holly Springs, MS line will be the storms along the cold front. 

The storms in Humphreys County and the Decaturville one could become tornado threats should they be able to separate more. 

The LLJ will increase as we head into the evening hours so we have not seen the last of this by far.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 05:31:11 PM
Not to be overlooked, but there's even some new development initializing further west back in West TN.

Whether or not severe reports materialize, I think the SPC did the right thing with the tornado watch over west and middle TN.  After all, it is a WATCH.  A potential for tornadic storms to develop. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 05:32:01 PM
I am thinking we have to start thinking like we do with winter storms.  Where the outlooks are at will always be either some S  or some NW.  as far as the development back to the west.  Seems they are struggling.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 05:33:33 PM
I am thinking we have to start thinking like we do with winter storms.  Where the outlooks are at will always be either some S  or some NW.  as far as the development back to the west.  Seems they are struggling.

Huh? A new warning was just issued for northern MS and west TN. These cells are strengthening. Of course they will pulse in strength but the overall trend is they are strengthening.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 05:35:36 PM
Quite a bit of hail/wind damage with structural damage in the Nashville area over into Sumner County. 

Showing that just because it isn't a large tornado doesn't mean it isn't impactful.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 05:35:36 PM
I am thinking we have to start thinking like we do with winter storms.  Where the outlooks are at will always be either some S  or some NW.  as far as the development back to the west.  Seems they are struggling.
Dude, you’re a trip.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 05:36:47 PM
It will be a race for Calera, AL to see if the convection to the south can disrupt that monster TDS before it gets to them. Bad situation down there.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 05:37:57 PM
Dude, you’re a trip.


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Lol.  I’m definitely an amateur.  Hopefully no more deaths.  I heard Spann say 4 so far.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 05:40:58 PM
It appears on Spann the spotter has the monster in his sights
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 05:41:48 PM
Holy crap, it's about to go right over 65 as a 1-mile wide tornado. Likely a sig tornado in progress
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 05:47:46 PM
Holy crap, it's about to go right over 65 as a 1-mile wide tornado. Likely a sig tornado in progress
I think the storms to the south have disrupted it a bit. That close to the radar site things get distorted though. Kinda hard to tell.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 05:48:05 PM
is anybody seeing any rotation at all in these west storms?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 05:51:41 PM
is anybody seeing any rotation at all in these west storms?

Not really. Except the Marshall County MS storm most of these storms don't have exceptionally strong updrafts. Seems the shear vectors are less favored and are stretching them out a little too much. Doesn't mean it couldn't change but so far playing out about as expected and HRRR indicated when there were no super strong UH signatures...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 05:51:57 PM
is anybody seeing any rotation at all in these west storms?
Nothing significant yet, but they just formed in the last couple of hours.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 05:54:21 PM
SPC beginning to cast some doubt as well....

Quote
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL KY...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...FAR 
NORTHERN MS 
 
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 51... 
 
VALID 252252Z - 260015Z 
 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 51 CONTINUES. 
 
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, 
WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. 
 
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER 
THE LAST HOUR FROM FAR NORTHERN MS INTO WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND 
WESTERN/CENTRAL KY, IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH OVER MO AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN IL. 
MLCAPE ACROSS THE REGION RANGES FROM AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE COOLER 
AIRMASS ACROSS KY TO OVER 1000 J/KG INTO TN/NORTHERN MS. VERY STRONG 
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT (NOTED IN OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSES 
AND THE 21Z OHX SOUNDING) WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED 
STORM STRUCTURES, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS 
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL 
(ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LEFT-MOVING CELLS) AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 
TORNADOES.   
 
THE COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS 
REGION, AS THE STRONG SHEAR AND VERY DRY MIDLEVEL AIR MOVING IN FROM 
THE WEST MAY CAUSE CONVECTION TO STRUGGLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE 
BUOYANCY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. HOWEVER, ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION 
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE 
EVENING. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Flash on March 25, 2021, 05:55:42 PM
Sister in East Nash lost power. Not the biggest hail in the world but the way she described it...it came down in torrential fashion.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 05:59:34 PM
SPC beginning to cast some doubt as well....

Sheesh.  Seems like forecasting has gone backwards these days.  Maybe we over analyze and let computers tell us how to forecast to much.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 06:02:19 PM
Sheesh.  Seems like forecasting has gone backwards these days.  Maybe we over analyze and let computers tell us how to forecast to much.

As opposed to using what? Witchcraft and human sacrifice?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 06:03:54 PM
As opposed to using what? Witchcraft and human sacrifice?

I prefer tarot cards  ;)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 06:04:53 PM
As opposed to using what? Witchcraft and human sacrifice?

In Biblical days, they cast lots.  Somewhat similar to rolling dice.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 06:05:37 PM
As opposed to using what? Witchcraft and human sacrifice?

Lol.  No but something obviously has changed.  I mean 2 high risks and moderates really were not more than elevated maybe moderate.  Maybe we need to scale down on outlooks. Don’t use high risk till it’s happening?  I think it’s great it bust but complacency is not what we need going forward and that is a guaranteed you will have that after 2 weeks of screaming outbreak.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 06:07:02 PM
Wondering if there is hail in that McNairy County cell
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 06:07:50 PM
Bust or not for us, people at the NWS are doing the best they can with the tools they are given.  God forbid they shrug their shoulders and say it's fake news and don't do anything. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 06:09:15 PM
Bust or not for us, people at the NWS are doing the best they can with the tools they are given.  God forbid they shrug their shoulders and say it's fake news and don't do anything.

I am not trying to be an ass.  I know and respect them but my question is do they over use outlooks?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 06:09:36 PM
There’s a stiff south wind here... but, it feels kind of cool for severe weather.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Scot on March 25, 2021, 06:09:54 PM
Portland TN is reporting tornado damage...anyone else hearing this? 


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 06:10:06 PM
Lol.  No but something obviously has changed.  I mean 2 high risks and moderates really were not more than elevated maybe moderate.  Maybe we need to scale down on outlooks. Don’t use high risk till it’s happening?  I think it’s great it bust but complacency is not what we need going forward and that is a guaranteed you will have that after 2 weeks of screaming outbreak.

This will not pass our area until 5 hours from now. It is premature to declare it a bust.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Lcwthrnut on March 25, 2021, 06:11:28 PM
Lol.  No but something obviously has changed.  I mean 2 high risks and moderates really were not more than elevated maybe moderate.  Maybe we need to scale down on outlooks. Don’t use high risk till it’s happening?  I think it’s great it bust but complacency is not what we need going forward and that is a guaranteed you will have that after 2 weeks of screaming outbreak.
Pretty sure the people south of Birmingham  would have to disagree with you. Just because it didn’t verify to your standards at your house doesn’t mean it didn’t elsewhere. I’ve been watching Spann track a tornado all the way across the state of Alabama that’s never lifted and throwing stuff 15k in the air. Those peoples high risk verified.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 06:12:05 PM
I prefer tarot cards  ;)

You just have to find the right teacher.
(https://i.redd.it/60zi78omxrx21.jpg)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 06:13:14 PM
The cells in West Tennessee just fired up a couple hours ago- lot of time left. Let's stay focused
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 06:14:13 PM
I am not trying to be an ass.  I know and respect them but my question is do they over use outlooks?

I would just chill.  The constant questioning of the forecasts whether in winter or now gets tiresome.  Yes, things may not pan out.  I for one, am thankful. These are computer generated outlooks.  Programmed by humans who don't know everything.  If they were programmed by God, then you have a reason to complain about it.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 06:16:15 PM
I would just chill.  The constant questioning of the forecasts whether in winter or now gets tiresome.  Yes, things may not pan out.  I for one, am thankful. These are computer generated outlooks.  Programmed by humans who don't know everything.  If they were programmed by God, then you have a reason to complain about it.

Understand.  Just consider this.  At this moment you have a high risk and moderate outlooks and right now was supposed to be peak time.  Yet only 1 tornado warning and it is soon to drop off.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mempho on March 25, 2021, 06:16:41 PM
Interestingly, there are parts of the Memphis Metro that were under a moderate risk of severe storms this morning that may come out of this without even seeing a tornado watch.  Thus far, not even a severe thunderstorm watch and no SPC MDs for the area.  I can't remember ever seeing that happen.
We are a snow and ice mecca these days and severe.... Well, not so much!

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 06:20:06 PM
Understand.  Just consider this.  At this moment you have a high risk and moderate outlooks and right now was supposed to be peak time.  Yet only 1 tornado warning and it is soon to drop off.

The key word.  Risk.  I risk my life when I get in the car and drive on the interstate with other people. There was a high risk from all the available data.  The NWS did what they are supposed to do and let the public know about it.  I don't have a problem with the risk not materializing into reality when we know the risk was real. 

I understand what you are saying, but I think you expect too much from computers, and the humans that program them.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 06:22:32 PM
Understand.  Just consider this.  At this moment you have a high risk and moderate outlooks and right now was supposed to be peak time.  Yet only 1 tornado warning and it is soon to drop off.
I go back to what has been said many times, and you must have missed it. These outlooks forecast what could happen not what will happen.

Statistically, look over 25 forecasts to see if there is a trend.

Imagine someone following you at work/school and doubting your work.

Maybe a better time and technique could be seen as a concerned observation rather than uneducated criticism.

Something to consider.

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 25, 2021, 06:25:07 PM
We are a snow and ice mecca these days and severe.... Well, not so much!

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post saved for future systems for rest this spring... ;D
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 06:27:10 PM
The lower end of the line coming through West TN does have some SVR warnings with it.

Just haven’t been impressed with the rest of the line other than what came through earlier.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: c_phillips on March 25, 2021, 06:27:38 PM
Lot of clearing in front of this next line of storms. It is noticeably cooler with a stiff south breeze.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 06:27:58 PM
Pretty sure the people south of Birmingham  would have to disagree with you. Just because it didn’t verify to your standards at your house doesn’t mean it didn’t elsewhere. I’ve been watching Spann track a tornado all the way across the state of Alabama that’s never lifted and throwing stuff 15k in the air. Those peoples high risk verified.

From an overall perspective, this was not an outbreak thus far. I throw thus far in there so people do not think I am outright downplaying the remainder of the event. The only thing these scattered storms are doing in TN is stabilizing the environment even more. I feel bad for the people that lost loved ones or their property today but overall this high risk has not verified. I would agree moderate was more appropriate here once again. Idk why everything did not materialize the way it was forecasted but some models hinted at a smaller scaled event since yesterday. There was plenty of time for the SPC to either maintain their moderate risk or upgrade it. They opted to upgrade it and it just did not pan out. I would like to point out that their wording from earlier convective discussions was vastly unfounded (at least for TN). Alabama got hit bad today there is no denying that. The high risk just did not pan out period. I feel the most bad for Mississippi as far as lost faith in the weather people. Two high risk events that never materialized is not good for public faith. Kuddos to our local weather people not hyping this event.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 06:28:04 PM
Go back in this thread to yesterday at 6:30 pm. Everyone was saying today COULD be potentially big. Not one single person shrugged off today. Hindsight is always 20/20, but you give us this setup in late March every year and I’d go MDT to High risk every time.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 06:28:20 PM
those bottom two cells could be something to watch
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 06:30:05 PM
Go back in this thread to yesterday at 6:30 pm. Everyone was saying today COULD be potentially big. Not one single person shrugged off today. Hindsight is always 20/20, but you give us this setup in late March every year and I’d go MDT to High risk every time.

One thing i MIGHT be in favor of is to not issue a high risk in the initial outlook...maybe wait until mid morning or 11:30 after a bit more data comes in the day of? But again that is border lining on being nitpicky
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 06:30:31 PM
The Selmer and Finger storms are probably the strongest of the day.  It is a battle of dry air and lower instability versus the strengthening LLJ.

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 06:31:57 PM
Go back in this thread to yesterday at 6:30 pm. Everyone was saying today COULD be potentially big. Not one single person shrugged off today. Hindsight is always 20/20, but you give us this setup in late March every year and I’d go MDT to High risk every time.

To do otherwise would be unprofessional.  I cut the outlooks, and the forecasters trying to save lives, a huge break.  Both are far from perfect. But the intentions are good.  Trying to keep the public informed and safe.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mempho on March 25, 2021, 06:32:01 PM
post saved for future systems for rest this spring... ;D

 ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 06:34:20 PM
::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

FIVE FEET DEEP 🤣
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 06:34:54 PM
One thing i MIGHT be in favor of is to not issue a high risk in the initial outlook...maybe wait until mid morning or 11:30 after a bit more data comes in the day of? But again that is border lining on being nitpicky

The High Risk verified it was just too far northwest. No one in Central Alabama is going to say this is a bust to say the least.     
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 06:36:07 PM
From an overall perspective, this was not an outbreak thus far. I throw thus far in there so people do not think I am outright downplaying the remainder of the event. The only thing these scattered storms are doing in TN is stabilizing the environment even more. I feel bad for the people that lost loved ones or their property today but overall this high risk has not verified. I would agree moderate was more appropriate here once again. Idk why everything did not materialize the way it was forecasted but some models hinted at a smaller scaled event since yesterday. There was plenty of time for the SPC to either maintain their moderate risk or upgrade it. They opted to upgrade it and it just did not pan out. I would like to point out that their wording from earlier convective discussions was vastly unfounded (at least for TN). Alabama got hit bad today there is no denying that. The high risk just did not pan out period. I feel the most bad for Mississippi as far as lost faith in the weather people. Two high risk events that never materialized is not good for public faith. Kuddos to our local weather people not hyping this event.

Be careful.  Glad engineers are not wrong this often these days.  Question does anyone analyze the forecasters at the SPC?  Like a manager or supervisor?  Remember their wording and how strong it was.  Imagine if one went to a doctor and he scared the poop out of you just to have minor surgery.  My frustration is now my family will not pay attention after 2 hyped systems.  Yet when one day an outbreak happens and people are injured or killed people will say they should have listened.  When they did over and over and nothing ever happened.  Yes I know wx is hard to forecast but should our forecasting abilities not be better than this?  Seriously we all know the feel in the atmosphere for tornadoes.  Maybe that is a better tool we should just go by.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 06:36:12 PM
Donut shape southeast of Selmer.  Could see a Tornado Warning incoming for that.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 06:36:57 PM
If I had the power to suspend those that call “bust” or insinuate it while it’s still very much in the cards...


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 06:37:30 PM
every system there is something to learn from, there was a wide open warm sector over most of mississippi with a warm front lifting northward i had filtered sunshine and dewpoints in the 60's since around 11am in lewis county.....why nothing initialized in that region that it was expected to is the mystery, that was where our potential supercell threat was going to come from and it just didn't happen, would love to see a re-hash on situations like this from nws/spc mets just to learn what happened?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 06:37:33 PM
those bottom two cells could be something to watch

They appear to be trying to get their acts together in the last few frames for sure.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 06:39:03 PM
Be careful.  Glad engineers are not wrong this often these days.  Question does anyone analyze the forecasters at the SPC?  Like a manager or supervisor?  Remember their wording and how strong it was.  Imagine if one went to a doctor and he scared the poop out of you just to have minor surgery.  My frustration is now my family will not pay attention after 2 hyped systems.  Yet when one day an outbreak happens and people are injured or killed people will say they should have listened.  When they did over and over and nothing ever happened.  Yes I know wx is hard to forecast but should our forecasting abilities not be better than this?  Seriously we all know the feel in the atmosphere for tornadoes.  Maybe that is a better tool we should just go by.

What do you mean by “feel in the atmosphere”? You literally mean the humid airmass? How could you possibly forecast a severe event with any lead time if you strictly go by day of “feel”?

And as we learned today, it takes MUCH more than DP’s to get severe weather
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 06:39:34 PM
Be careful.  Glad engineers are not wrong this often these days.  Question does anyone analyze the forecasters at the SPC?  Like a manager or supervisor?  Remember their wording and how strong it was.  Imagine if one went to a doctor and he scared the poop out of you just to have minor surgery.  My frustration is now my family will not pay attention after 2 hyped systems.  Yet when one day an outbreak happens and people are injured or killed people will say they should have listened.  When they did over and over and nothing ever happened.  Yes I know wx is hard to forecast but should our forecasting abilities not be better than this?  Seriously we all know the feel in the atmosphere for tornadoes.  Maybe that is a better tool we should just go by.

Well said. The good news is we can learn from this. Surely someone will study it.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 06:41:10 PM
To me high risk should be reserved for days like 4/27/11.  I believe SPC should change their expectations on all risks.  To me this was an elevated risk.  Yes AL was hit hard in places but it appears strongest tornado was high EF3 from pics.  To me moderate should be for several high EF3 or higher.  Will be interesting what these tornadoes in AL are rated.  My guess is EF2 average.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 06:43:46 PM
To me high risk should be reserved for days like 4/27/11.  I believe SPC should change their expectations on all risks.  To me this was an elevated risk.  Yes AL was hit hard in places but it appears strongest tornado was high EF3 from pics.  To me moderate should be for several high EF3 or higher.  Will be interesting what these tornadoes in AL are rated.  My guess is EF2 average.

The one that just tracked 2 miles away from my uncle was a large violent wedge per nws just saying
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 06:44:08 PM
What do you mean by “feel in the atmosphere”? You literally mean the humid airmass? How could you possibly forecast a severe event with any lead time if you strictly go by day of “feel”?

And as we learned today, it takes MUCH more than DP’s to get severe weather

Charles you know what I mean.  We all have walked out and said today feels like severe storms could happen.  Just like before every tornado it usually during daytime gets green to pink skies. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 06:44:29 PM
To me high risk should be reserved for days like 4/27/11.

Oh- do you happen to know what the top analog was for today?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: angrypug on March 25, 2021, 06:44:35 PM
If I had the power to suspend those that call “bust” or insinuate it while it’s still very much in the cards...


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Agreed. Seems years ago when there were server problems we went into severe weather mode. I think it was this site. People who complained or had nothing weather related to contribute would be muted.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 06:44:49 PM
To me high risk should be reserved for days like 4/27/11.  I believe SPC should change their expectations on all risks.  To me this was an elevated risk.  Yes AL was hit hard in places but it appears strongest tornado was high EF3 from pics.  To me moderate should be for several high EF3 or higher.  Will be interesting what these tornadoes in AL are rated.  My guess is EF2 average.


I agree. Stick to enhanced and moderate until the day of. Maybe by midday. I get this is controversial, but it could account for morning clutter that can stabilize air masses too much (notice the too much wording). Sometimes these lay boundaries out which storms can thrive off of later in the day. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matt on March 25, 2021, 06:45:44 PM
Agreed. Seems years ago when there were server problems we went into severe weather mode. I think it was this site. People who complained or had nothing weather related to contribute would be muted.

It was here. And it did a good job keeping the banter out.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 06:47:09 PM
To me high risk should be reserved for days like 4/27/11.  I believe SPC should change their expectations on all risks.  To me this was an elevated risk.  Yes AL was hit hard in places but it appears strongest tornado was high EF3 from pics.  To me moderate should be for several high EF3 or higher.  Will be interesting what these tornadoes in AL are rated.  My guess is EF2 average.
I want to back you up sometimes, but then you say things like that first sentence.

To you, yourself, etc., it wasn’t as big of a risk, but per the SPC’s decades of expertise, trial & error, studies, education, etc., it fit the criteria and definition based upon forecasted & modeled data and analysis. Weather never has and never will be exact. That said, if your family decides to not heed forecasts or warnings based upon the forecast not performing for only that certain part of the risk area, that’s on them, and if something unfortunate happens as a result, well, they can’t lay blame on the SPC for that.

So just because the risk area may not verify for a certain location but does in other portions of the MDT risk, for example, does, that’s a big win in terms of forecasting coming out of Norman.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 06:48:30 PM
Agreed. Seems years ago when there were server problems we went into severe weather mode. I think it was this site. People who complained or had nothing weather related to contribute would be muted.

Welcome to America. People should be allowed to express their honest opinions just like YOU just did. Agree to disagree. We are all adults here. As long as no one belittles someone or cusses, I say let them have their voices heard. Be polite and courteous is all I really ask. You might actually learn a thing or two in the end.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Susan on March 25, 2021, 06:48:55 PM
If I had the power to suspend those that call “bust” or insinuate it while it’s still very much in the cards...


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Yep.

My 2 year old granddaughter whines less. 

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 06:49:21 PM
To me high risk should be reserved for days like 4/27/11.  I believe SPC should change their expectations on all risks.  To me this was an elevated risk.  Yes AL was hit hard in places but it appears strongest tornado was high EF3 from pics.  To me moderate should be for several high EF3 or higher.  Will be interesting what these tornadoes in AL are rated.  My guess is EF2 average.

4-27-11 is once in a lifetime.....also it's not just strength that is factored in...if you had 45 ef1 tornadoes in a high risk area i very much think that qualifies as verification....also if you had five ef4 and three ef5 and just a few ef3 to total 15 or 20 tornadoes that would also verify
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 06:50:17 PM
Agreed. Seems years ago when there were server problems we went into severe weather mode. I think it was this site. People who complained or had nothing weather related to contribute would be muted.

Amazing.  We have become a society where questioning or criticizing forecasting is off limits.  Can we all get jobs where we can be wrong and scare the poop out of people and never have any repercussions?  I am the engineer that built this bridge.  Not sure if it will stand up to flood waters but it sure is pretty.  Think of the peoples lives affected by fear and having to leave work today and schools closed and sports canceled.  Peoples lives are affected by forecast.  It’s a **** shame that some are held accountable for their jobs while others are not.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 06:51:21 PM
Be careful.  Glad engineers are not wrong this often these days.  Question does anyone analyze the forecasters at the SPC?  Like a manager or supervisor?  Remember their wording and how strong it was.  Imagine if one went to a doctor and he scared the poop out of you just to have minor surgery.  My frustration is now my family will not pay attention after 2 hyped systems.  Yet when one day an outbreak happens and people are injured or killed people will say they should have listened.  When they did over and over and nothing ever happened.  Yes I know wx is hard to forecast but should our forecasting abilities not be better than this?  Seriously we all know the feel in the atmosphere for tornadoes.  Maybe that is a better tool we should just go by.
I understand the crying wolf concern. But you can help.

Most people could not tell you what a convective outlook is. They get their weather info from news outlets or weather interested friends. As a weather interested friend, I have to understand the purpose of the outlooks and what they represent. Then I have to understand the audience including their tolerance of forecast imperfections.

In a medium risk, I typically tell friends and family that they may want to check the weather if planning to be out during the outlook time. In high risk, I mention having a plan of protection if things get bad. If I see a radar TOR in their path, I text or call them about the possible imminent threat.

I try to keep it at a gentle informative level until a threat arises. I found in the past that trying to sound too educated usually leaves me looking foolish. I don't need help with that.

Be a part of the solution.

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 06:51:38 PM
We have to keep in mind the biggest contributing factor nowadays to over hyping and misinformation is social media. People see it is going to storm and repost it with their own added caveats. That is why I tell people to like their local NWS pages and listen to them directly. That is why we have them in the first place.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 06:51:42 PM
To me high risk should be reserved for days like 4/27/11.  I believe SPC should change their expectations on all risks.  To me this was an elevated risk.  Yes AL was hit hard in places but it appears strongest tornado was high EF3 from pics.  To me moderate should be for several high EF3 or higher.  Will be interesting what these tornadoes in AL are rated.  My guess is EF2 average.

I think you have a very twisted view on what meteorology is and isn’t. We can’t know for sure if an event is going to become a 4/27/11 or not. You issue the forecast on the RISK and POTENTIAL.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Susan on March 25, 2021, 06:52:20 PM
Welcome to America. People should be allowed to express their honest opinions just like YOU just did. Agree to disagree. We are all adults here. As long as no one belittles someone or cusses, I say let them have their voices heard. Be polite and courteous is all I really ask. You might actually learn a thing or two in the end.

This is a privately owned forum.  The owners/managers are under no obligation to allow anyone to express anything. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 06:52:51 PM
in all of the whining there is a tor warning for savannah
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 06:53:21 PM
Amazing.  We have become a society where questioning or criticizing forecasting is off limits.  Can we all get jobs where we can be wrong and scare the poop out of people and never have any repercussions?  I am the engineer that built this bridge.  Not sure if it will stand up to flood waters but it sure is pretty.  Think of the peoples lives affected by fear and having to leave work today and schools closed and sports canceled.  Peoples lives are affected by forecast.  It’s a **** shame that some are held accountable for their jobs while others are not.

Preach! 👐
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 06:53:42 PM
To me do away with the SPC and let local markets make the call for their areas.  That way it’s real time.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 06:54:33 PM
Back to the current situation at hand, a TOR warning for Hardin County. Just south of Savannah
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 06:54:49 PM
Hey guys- can we quit arguing long enough to notice that a TOR warning was just issued for Hardin County.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 06:54:52 PM
This is ridiculous.


There is a time and a place to express our opinions about the forecasts that were issued.

While the event is still live, and as storms are moving across the state, now is not that time.

And there is also a clear difference between stating an argument and banter. This is mostly unmitigated banter. It is entirely silly.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 06:54:57 PM
This is a privately owned forum.  The owners/managers are under no obligation to allow anyone to express anything.

Does that not defeat the whole purpose of creating an online community aimed at letting people talk about all things weather related?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 06:55:03 PM
To me do away with the SPC and let local markets make the call for their areas.  That way it’s real time.
Jesus. Someone delete this drivel.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 06:55:10 PM
I can see why America is heading toward a black hole after seeing the whining and complaining because a POTENTIALLY dangerous weather event didn't meet expectations.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 06:55:28 PM
One more thing.  Peoples here give Bruce poop when he mentions severe wx and it does not happen.  What’s the difference between him saying it and the SPC?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mempho on March 25, 2021, 06:55:33 PM
From an overall perspective, this was not an outbreak thus far. I throw thus far in there so people do not think I am outright downplaying the remainder of the event. The only thing these scattered storms are doing in TN is stabilizing the environment even more. I feel bad for the people that lost loved ones or their property today but overall this high risk has not verified. I would agree moderate was more appropriate here once again. Idk why everything did not materialize the way it was forecasted but some models hinted at a smaller scaled event since yesterday. There was plenty of time for the SPC to either maintain their moderate risk or upgrade it. They opted to upgrade it and it just did not pan out. I would like to point out that their wording from earlier convective discussions was vastly unfounded (at least for TN). Alabama got hit bad today there is no denying that. The high risk just did not pan out period. I feel the most bad for Mississippi as far as lost faith in the weather people. Two high risk events that never materialized is not good for public faith. Kuddos to our local weather people not hyping this event.

That may be going too far...how about there are things for forecasters to work on?  Clearly, they got it wrong.  Twice.  In a Row...BUT...there's probably something that they don't understand quite yet that they need to learn. 

I, for one, am quite happy that my house is still standing, so I am not attempting to tempt fate- I am grateful.  That said....

The following is my opinion and I realize that many may disagree with it but it just comes from watching these things over time.  I realize that some may scoff at the idea that the SPC doesn't really understand the local area dynamics and I'm fine with that as it's highly possible that I am wrong.  I'm okay with that as this is a place for sharing ideas and I don't have any issue with sharing ideas and finding out that I am entirely wrong.  It's how we all learn.  Now, as far as severe weather in west TN goes and, in particular, the Memphis area, these are my ideas (which could be terribly flawed):

We have a long history of high risks busting in our particular region and I would say that it goes back to issues with modeling...there's a transition area as you move from Oklahoma and over Arkansas into Tennessee... and that's the transition from being a primarily landlocked area to a region that can readily access Gulf moisture.  I don't think models do very well with our area and I don't think they ever have done particularly well.  That goes for severe weather as well as winter weather.  They then to miss on the extreme events both by predicting high end events that don't occur as well as low end events that do occur. 

This makes it a very difficult area to forecast.  I've noticed that, severe-wise, the models almost always overestimate the convective inhibition on a high-risk day for a key portion of the day and we end up with, essentially, crapvection.

I don't pretend to know why this is but my truly empirical observations has been that high risk days are always essentially next to nothing in our area.  In fact, I don't recall any high-risk near west Tennessee being anything but a nothingburger.  Moderate risks by themselves, however, tend to materialize much better than Highs BUT that's only for our particular area. 

So, worry about days where the following are true has been my guideline for a long time:

1) Moderate risk is the highest risk category for the day (no high risk is being issued)
2) You are at or near the center of the moderate risk area.
3) Then, worry about it but it's still a coin flip.
4) If a high risk is issued, IMO, it's not going to be something to really worry about- morning instability will be too high and convective inhibition too low. 



Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 06:56:20 PM
THERE IS A TORNADO WARNING IN OUR AREA NOW PEOPLE....chill
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 06:56:43 PM
To me do away with the SPC and let local markets make the call for their areas.  That way it’s real time.
Kinda like putting on the seatbelt when you see the train coming?

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Crockett on March 25, 2021, 06:58:05 PM
To me high risk should be reserved for days like 4/27/11.  I believe SPC should change their expectations on all risks.  To me this was an elevated risk.  Yes AL was hit hard in places but it appears strongest tornado was high EF3 from pics.  To me moderate should be for several high EF3 or higher.  Will be interesting what these tornadoes in AL are rated.  My guess is EF2 average.

Yes, it's a freakin' shame the SPC knew that there would only be a couple of EF3s today and issued a high risk anyway. Why are we losing sight of the fact that forecasts are based on probabilities and inexact science? At the end of the day, the weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do and all we can do is try to pReDiCt it.

With all the technological advances and increased knowledge, one thing that didn't change between 4/3/74 and 4/27/11 is that NOBODY predicted just how large-scale those tornado outbreaks were going to be. But forecasters knew the POTENTIAL for something major was there both times. And the next time that a tornado outbreak occurs on that same scale, it won't be nailed down in advance by forecasters, either...but the potential will be warned in advance. The parameters today weren't significantly different from 4/27/11. The fact that the worst-case scenario often doesn't pan out doesn't mean that meteorologists got it wrong. It just means that all of us got lucky. It's forecasters' job to tell us what COULD happen. And it's up to us to have the understanding that they have no way of knowing what WILL happen. The worst kind of Monday morning quarterbacking is to use the benefit of hindsight to try to claim that wrong decisions were made. I mean, let's look at it this way: where were you this morning, or last night, to tell us that the high risk wasn't warranted based on the parameters that were in place and what the models were showing?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 06:58:27 PM
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
649 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Hardin County in western Tennessee...

* Until 730 PM CDT.
   
* At 649 PM CDT, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
  producing a tornado was located near Savannah, moving northeast at
  60 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Savannah, Adamsville, Olive Hill, Shiloh, Crump, Lowryville,
  Hamburg, Phillips, Pittsburg Landing, Center Star, Maddox, Hurley,
  Walkertown, Olivehill, Bucktown, Cerro Gordo and Shiloh National
  Military Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 06:59:01 PM
I didn't know we were having a party tonight! Where's the Flat Earth Guy?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 06:59:58 PM
That rotation is pretty stout especially considering that Hardin County is in a radar hole. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 07:00:12 PM
That may be going too far...how about there are things for forecasters to work on.  Clearly, they got it wrong.  Twice.  In a Row...BUT...there's probably something that they don't understand quite yet that they need to learn. 

I, for one, am quite happy that my house is still standing, so I am not attempting to tempt fate- I am grateful.  That said....

The following is my opinion and I realize that many may disagree with it but it just comes from watching these things over time.  I realize that some may scoff at the idea that the SPC doesn't really understand the local area dynamics and I'm fine with that as it's highly possible that I am wrong.  I'm okay with that as this is a place for sharing ideas and I don't have any issue with sharing ideas and finding out that I am entirely wrong.  It's how we all learn.  Now, as far as severe weather in west TN goes and, in particular, the Memphis area, these are my ideas (which could be terribly flawed):

We have a long history of high risks busting in our particular region and I would say that it goes back to issues with modeling...there's a transition area as you move from Oklahoma and over Arkansas into Tennessee... and that's the transition from being a primarily landlocked area to a region that can readily access Gulf moisture.  I don't think models do very well with our area and I don't think they ever have done particularly well.  That goes for severe weather as well as winter weather.  They then to miss on the extreme events both by predicting high end events that don't occur as well as low end events that do occur. 

This makes it a very difficult area to forecast.  I've noticed that, severe-wise, the models almost always overestimate the convective inhibition on a high-risk day for a key portion of the day and we end up with, essentially, crapvection.

I don't pretend to know why this is but my truly empirical observations has been that high risk days are always essentially next to nothing in our area.  In fact, I don't recall any high-risk near west Tennessee being anything but a nothingburger.  Moderate risks by themselves, however, tend to materialize much better than Highs BUT that's only for our particular area. 

So, worry about days where the following are true has been my guideline for a long time:

1) Moderate risk is the highest risk category for the day (no high risk is being issued)
2) You are at or near the center of the moderate risk area.
3) Then, worry about it but it's still a coin flip.
4) If a high risk is issued, IMO, it's not going to be something to really worry about- morning instability will be too high and convective inhibition too low.

I think you had excellent points here tbh. Weather seems to be ever-evovling, especially during the last three decades.


Back to what is happening here now...My friend lives in Savannah and she said they lost power at her house and had some small hail. She said it moved through fast at her house. Not too much lightning.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: angrypug on March 25, 2021, 07:00:37 PM
I didn't know we were having a party tonight! Where's the Flat Earth Guy?

I hope just ignored him lol
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 07:01:26 PM
That Hardin Co cell now has the Kidney Bean look on RadarScope
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 07:01:31 PM
One more thing.  Peoples here give Bruce poop when he mentions severe wx and it does not happen.  What’s the difference between him saying it and the SPC?
There’s a solid difference between us busting Bruce’s balls and you saying the SPC busted while an intensifying line of storms, some taking on discrete supercell characteristics, is still moving towards middle Tennessee.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mempho on March 25, 2021, 07:02:33 PM
I didn't know we were having a party tonight! Where's the Flat Earth Guy?

Please, please with the compliments- I'm trying to maintain my humility!   ::whistling::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 07:03:55 PM
Someone please pass the liquor. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 07:06:04 PM
Someone please pass the liquor.

I got Skrewball!
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 07:06:18 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
704 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Lewis County in Middle Tennessee...
  Northern Wayne County in Middle Tennessee...
  Southeastern Perry County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 745 PM CDT.
   
* At 703 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Olive Hill, or 8 miles east of Savannah, moving
  northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Waynesboro around 725 PM CDT.

Hey look everyone here is a storm.   ::shaking_finger:: ::shaking_finger:: ::shaking_finger::  Look at the storm there is a storm.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 07:06:26 PM
Perry and Wayne warned now.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 07:06:49 PM
Tor Warning extended to Perry and Wayne Counties
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 07:08:03 PM
well my area is under the tornado warning now so  i am a bit concerned, cant tell which way it is going exactly
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 07:08:26 PM
I got Skrewball!

I think we need something stronger. 

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d2/EverclearHiRes.jpg)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 07:08:45 PM
Tor Warning extended to Perry and Wayne Counties

lewis also
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 07:09:20 PM
I want off this ride. The sky has grown quite dark here independently of the setting sun.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 07:09:49 PM
lewis also

Be careful, man
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 07:10:48 PM
Be careful, man

and the storm here in lewis now seems to be hooking
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 07:12:00 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
704 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Lewis County in Middle Tennessee...
  Northern Wayne County in Middle Tennessee...
  Southeastern Perry County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 703 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Olive Hill, or 8 miles east of Savannah, moving
  northeast at 60 mph.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: c_phillips on March 25, 2021, 07:13:42 PM
For anyone wanting to follow local coverage on the southern tier storms.

https://youtu.be/7ovSERwygXc
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 07:17:46 PM
That's gonna come up close to my place
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 07:17:53 PM
Hey look everyone here is a storm.   ::shaking_finger:: ::shaking_finger:: ::shaking_finger::  Look at the storm there is a storm.   

(https://i.imgflip.com/536q7n.jpg)

Had to get this one in... was getting reminded of that scene from Twister.

Anyway... carrying on with this TOR warning.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Susan on March 25, 2021, 07:18:19 PM
That's gonna come up close to my place
Mine too.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 07:18:45 PM
It's far from radar coverage... but, I have seen some low CCs pop around the couplet.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 07:19:37 PM
Keep safe and update in areas under the gun.  This isn't just a forum.  It's family.  (That's why we argue).
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 07:20:53 PM
It’s getting exciting here.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 07:22:02 PM
Fast moving clouds, cloud lightning, and thunder rolling into wilco.

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 07:22:20 PM
It's far from radar coverage... but, I have seen some low CCs pop around the couplet.

That's all non-uniform beam filling...basically the radar beam is hitting the storms upstream of this cell (closer to Nashville) before it reaches this one...and it causing the correlation coefficient to become noisy and degrade in quality...making it unreliable. Because of that if there were to be a debris signature it's going to be near impossible to discern.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 07:24:12 PM
That cell looks rough. Waynesboro needs to take cover immediately
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 07:24:50 PM
That's all non-uniform beam filling...basically the radar beam is hitting the storms upstream of this cell (closer to Nashville) before it reaches this one...and it causing the correlation coefficient to become noisy and degrade in quality...making it unreliable. Because of that if there were to be a debris signature it's going to be near impossible to discern.

Yeah, I was seeing that from KOHX, but it was a better look from KGWX... still too far away for a good read probably.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 07:25:13 PM
That line of storms near Nashville isn't in a big hurry.  Just barely moving east, while individual cells head northeast.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mempho on March 25, 2021, 07:26:56 PM
That's gonna come up close to my place
Prayers

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 07:27:01 PM
Yeah, I was seeing that from KOHX, but it was a better look from KGWX... still too far away for a good CC look.

From GWX yes less NUBF, looking at about 10kft. If we do pop up a TDS there it probably means it's a significant one
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 07:27:18 PM
The rotation near Waynesboro is tightening up. 

It does look like probably Antioch (SE Nashville to Waynesboro and points east/southeast looks to be the main threat.

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 07:27:59 PM
waynesboro looks scary, i think it will stay JUST to my south by about 5 miles
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: c_phillips on March 25, 2021, 07:28:04 PM
That was the driving factor for Lawrenceburg/WLX to invest in a radar for the area. After 2 missed tornadoes in Lawrence County last year they pushed for private funding for Tennessee Valley Weather. They have a furuno dual Pol radar in Lawrenceburg.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 07:29:32 PM
From GWX yes less NUBF, looking at about 10kft. If we do pop up a TDS there it probably means it's a significant one

It was brief, but a blue "dot" popped up on one frame, pretty close to the couplet. Probably was a coincidence nothing blip.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Lcwthrnut on March 25, 2021, 07:32:07 PM
South of hohenwald, lots of lightning raining now but not hard. Wind was calm but starting to pick up now.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 07:32:51 PM
This is what I saw.

[attachimg=1]


Kind of lines up with the junkiness in the beam north of there, so probably nothing.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 07:33:52 PM
On the lookout over here. Eastern Williamson looks like they are more at risk
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 07:35:49 PM
It does look like probably Antioch (SE Nashville to Waynesboro and points east/southeast looks to be the main threat.

On the lookout over here. Eastern Williamson looks like they are more at risk

Say, around Nolensville...
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 07:35:54 PM
OHX is hinting at a likely tornado in northern Wayne County at this time.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 07:36:13 PM
I have to side with those saying this is a bust. Yes there was likely a big tornado that went through Birmingham and there was another one in the same area earlier in the day. Yes that has impacted them significantly. Yes the SPC made a forecast based on the data they had and it seemingly supported the scenario they forecasted.  All that said, the high and moderate risk areas completely busted based on the statistical rules they are created from.  As mentioned earlier, there were places that were under moderate risk that did not see a watch or even a MD of the area.  90% of the High risk are busted except for the far south periphery. My entire CWA (Memphis) which included high risk area saw a single tornado warning today that didn't produce AFAIK.  This would be much easier to forgive and forget if we didn't have the same scenario play out last week.

I am not going to try and pick apart what went wrong. I don't know enough about professional level forecasting and meteorology and I will leave it to the actual mets on the board to discuss.  That said these days do tremendous harm to the public's confidence in the weather forecast (whether that be fair or not to the SPC, it is what it is).  I also think there is nothing wrong with discussing it among fellow weather lovers both professional and amateur as long as its constructive, respectful criticism.  It is also fine IMO to discuss it in this thread as long as there is not an active Tornado Warning/Emergency in TN and the few immediate surrounding counties this board caters too.

So there is my  ::twocents::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 07:38:28 PM
The line has made it to wilco.

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: c_phillips on March 25, 2021, 07:39:02 PM
How do you post pictures?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 07:39:47 PM
I think that bust talk is premature. I also think that 4/27/2011 moved the goalposts for a lot you. Nothing can reasonably compare to it, so everything seems minor when put up against it.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: c_phillips on March 25, 2021, 07:40:24 PM
Tornado Sirens sounding in Lawrenceburg.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 07:41:21 PM
Confirmed large tornado northeast of Waynesboro.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 07:42:29 PM
Confirmed large tornado northeast of Waynesboro.


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They are saying radar confirmed tornado but I see no evidence of a TDS. Again just NUBF. Trying to understand the context of this wording....
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 07:42:50 PM
I think that bust talk is premature. I also think that 4/27/2011 moved the goalposts for a lot you. Nothing can reasonably compare to it, so everything seems minor when put up against it.
It is at least an ill timed remark. Review the film after the game. Don't be better than the coach during the game.

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 07:42:58 PM
Tornado Sirens sounding in Lawrenceburg.

I don't see why in Lawrenceburg proper because that cell is passing to the north. TN Valley Weather even mentioned that. Tornado confirmed now on the ground but North of Lawrenceburg.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 07:44:58 PM
I think the Huntsville radar has the TDS
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 07:45:40 PM
I think that bust talk is premature. I also think that 4/27/2011 moved the goalposts for a lot you. Nothing can reasonably compare to it, so everything seems minor when put up against it.
Is it?  Just about the entire high risk area is done for the day or will be in another hour.  There is certainly more time for those of you in the west and east of the state, but the risk tapers off the further NE the system pulls.  As for my goalposts I am only going on what the very definitions of high risk are defined as.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 07:47:38 PM
*Can we pause on the discussion about the SPC and whether this was a bust, at least until we get past the active TOR warnings in TN?*
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 07:50:06 PM
*Can we pause on the discussion about the SPC and whether this was a bust, at least until we get past the active TOR warnings in TN?*

Agree.  Just noticed one was just issued.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 07:53:17 PM
Maybe it’s cycling. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 25, 2021, 07:54:17 PM
I don't like what I see right now and I have nowhere to go. I'm on the 3rd floor.

[attachimg=1]
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 07:55:16 PM
So Channel 4/5 don’t say it’s on ground.  Also do none of these stations have a debris tracker?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 07:56:16 PM
I don't like what I see right now and I have nowhere to go. I'm on the 3rd floor.

(Attachment Link)
Go to a nearby store like CVS.  Go to a neighbors.  Get off the 3rd floor!
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: titans#1 on March 25, 2021, 07:58:06 PM
So Channel 4/5 don’t say it’s on ground.  Also do none of these stations have a debris tracker?
Channel 5 said it was confirmed on the ground in Wayne Co.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 07:59:18 PM
MEG has canceled all watches for it's CWA.  We seem to be out of the woods officially now.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 08:00:08 PM
Franklin, TN has a suspicious notch that could be a spinup or at least an area of sustained damaging winds.  As this storm picks up strength and moves eastward that we could see corridors of damaging wind.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 08:01:36 PM
My dog is acting crazy.  There is no thunder or wind.  She wants under the bed.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 08:01:47 PM
MEG has canceled all watches for it's CWA.  We seem to be out of the woods officially now.

We got wind but the sky is clear.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 08:03:10 PM
My dog is acting crazy.  There is no thunder or wind.  She wants under the bed.
That Williamson storm loos suspect. My parents are just a few miles from you down Almaville.

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jfranklin on March 25, 2021, 08:03:42 PM
Is the guy streaming on @NashSevereWx using the desktop version of Radarscope or something else?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 08:03:55 PM
Looks rough right around the Mt Pleasant area
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 08:06:19 PM
This storm is quite a bit further east than picked up by pretty much every model and a bit weaker which is why things happened the way they did so far.     

Going from near St. Louis to the Wabash River area is quite a miss. With that track, I would say anyone west of that second line from Nashville to just south of Waynesboro and pretty much all of Central KY (minus maybe Lake Cumberland area) is going to be done for the night.   

Along our second line we are not out of the woods.  The Nolensville storm looks quite mean. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 25, 2021, 08:07:35 PM
Reminder to those in Nashville with the cells so close - the terminal Doppler for BNA can show some really fine details at this range.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: RobD on March 25, 2021, 08:08:41 PM
We had the "hailer" that NashSevere was showing come right over our house. Didn't see any hail but was super windy & heavy rain. And quite the lightning show to the North up towards Cool Springs, Brentwood, etc.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 08:09:21 PM
Is the guy streaming on @NashSevereWx using the desktop version of Radarscope or something else?

That or GRLevel3 apparently.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: DocB on March 25, 2021, 08:10:42 PM
Was looking out the door as the cell approached and the rain line was accompanied by pea size hail
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: WXHD on March 25, 2021, 08:11:34 PM
Looks like a growler in Smyrna.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 08:15:19 PM
SPC has downgraded everyone to an enhanced or marginal risk now in their latest outlook.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JKT1987 on March 25, 2021, 08:15:25 PM
Smyrna needs to be in shelter now
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: RobD on March 25, 2021, 08:16:41 PM
That just went to a tornado warning for NE Williamson/SE Davidson
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Clay on March 25, 2021, 08:17:30 PM
Small hail, wind, torrential downpours and she's gone. That cell went TOR right after it passed over but so far that rotation is elevated.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 08:20:38 PM
Small but VERY intense couplet in Smyrna right now. If there is not a tornado in progress I’d be shocked.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 25, 2021, 08:22:21 PM
Pretty sure we have a TDS
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Jilly on March 25, 2021, 08:25:00 PM
Lord have mercy that looks bad.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 08:25:19 PM
Pretty sure we have a TDS

That cell and rotation passed right over us.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: DocB on March 25, 2021, 08:26:51 PM
That cell and rotation passed right over us.
Sure did. Brief, but intense
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2021, 08:27:41 PM
I concur on the TDS that’s just passed Smyrna.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 08:28:29 PM
Franklin looks to be in the clear. Enjoyed the storms although they passed very quick.

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Nash_LSU on March 25, 2021, 08:28:50 PM
Speedway is taking a direct hit with that potential tornado.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 08:30:17 PM
Am I seeing TDS on CC???

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: 10ec_dad on March 25, 2021, 08:30:19 PM
Speedway is taking a direct hit with that potential tornado.
Headed to Watertown.

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Beth on March 25, 2021, 08:30:50 PM
Praying for all that are still in danger.  🙏🏻
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 08:31:30 PM
My brother is in Lebanon on I40.  They are in safe place.  His house was hit last March.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Nash_LSU on March 25, 2021, 08:32:06 PM
Matehew

Are you and any other Smyrna posters okay?

edit: Just saw you posted. Good to know you're still alive. Looked like that rotation came close to y'all.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Susan on March 25, 2021, 08:32:56 PM
Touchdown confirmed in Wayne County.  Per Bill Phillips, EMA Lawrence Co.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: pandadug on March 25, 2021, 08:33:58 PM
Me and my daughter watched the wall cloud as it was in Smyrna, from La Vergne.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: NismoWx on March 25, 2021, 08:34:42 PM
Are you and any other Smyrna posters okay?
My parents are okay, and Matthew is 3-4mi into town from them.

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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 08:35:33 PM
Are you and any other Smyrna posters okay?

edit: Just saw you posted. Good to know you're still alive. Looked like that rotation came close to y'all.

Thanks for asking we are safe.  We are right on 840. Just south of it.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mmryan on March 25, 2021, 08:36:29 PM
Are you and any other Smyrna posters okay?

edit: Just saw you posted. Good to know you're still alive. Looked like that rotation came close to y'all.

We are fine.  It went directly above us.  Thus far not even any rain or wind here. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Mommy2Nemo on March 25, 2021, 08:38:11 PM
Well that was exciting enough. By the time my phone went off with the warning it was over us. Thankfully all we got here on the Smyrna/La Vergne line was eery quiet.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Jilly on March 25, 2021, 08:39:27 PM
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1yNGaWkyXnDxj
Upper Cumberland WX is live on Periscope
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Nash_LSU on March 25, 2021, 08:39:35 PM
Good to hear all of y'all okay. Cheers, y'all.

On another note, sirens are still going off here near Crieve Hall. Gotta love our system here in Nashville.  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 25, 2021, 08:41:21 PM
hey everybody, lost power for 90 minutes, heard from some of my family on buffalo road in my county that there was a "large" tornado that passed.....any confirmation of that? It was horrific here, massive lightning and insane wind, sounded like a loud roar to my southwest which would have been where that was located
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: RobD on March 25, 2021, 08:42:15 PM
New tornado warning up for Southeast Williamson and surrounding area.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2021, 08:44:01 PM
My dog is acting crazy.  There is no thunder or wind.  She wants under the bed.

Your dog is very keen.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 08:45:44 PM
Your dog is very keen.

Spoiled lol
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Nash_LSU on March 25, 2021, 08:48:36 PM
Sounds like snowdog needs to add reported dog pooping activities to his TORCON algorithm.

Matthew's dog needs to be heavily weighted in whatever the revised algorithm is.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 08:49:51 PM
Matthew's dog needs to be heavily weighted in whatever the revised algorithm is.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Well this one is going to be razor close
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 08:51:07 PM
HRRR once again did an amazing job with this storm. Kuddos to it.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 08:53:50 PM
I had never heard the term sickley?  for a tornado.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 25, 2021, 08:54:58 PM
These storms in Middle TN really show the high-ceiling that this event had and what could have happened had some things went differently (that we will discuss after the warnings and storms are over). We have worked over air moving into our area and we still had some tornado reports and significant hail/wind.   
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 09:01:32 PM
Is Eric ok?  He is just east of BORO?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 09:13:38 PM
But that “bust” though.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Scot on March 25, 2021, 09:14:07 PM
Feel like we were all really lucky today.  This could have been so much worse. There is a lot of PTSD from last year’s tornado here in Mount Juliet so I am extremely thankful!


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 09:14:41 PM
All quiet here now, but HRRR shows more convection developing ahead of the Nashville line, and both moving through later.

Too tired to worry about it.  Going to bed, and if I wake up in OZ, so be it.  Just keep the wicked witch away from me. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Crockett on March 25, 2021, 09:16:40 PM
Is Eric ok?  He is just east of BORO?

He's good. He's tweeting a mile a minute.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 09:23:49 PM
Well...watching the instantaneous growth of storms west of Knoxville, I might stay up just awhile longer.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 09:25:54 PM
But that “bust” though.


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In all reality it was as far as "high risk" was concerned.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Nash_LSU on March 25, 2021, 09:30:44 PM
Inglewood hail action from the first storm this afternoon: https://www.reddit.com/r/nashville/comments/mddcns/east_nash_inglewood_storm_damage/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/nashville/comments/mddcns/east_nash_inglewood_storm_damage/)

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 09:35:45 PM
But that “bust” though.


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Look I apologize for offending anyone on here.  I know forecasting is not easy.  We can maybe make a separate thread to discuss forecasting and expectations.  Many people get stress levels very high and it also affects daily lives and businesses.  So to me this was a “bust” thankfully.  To me there needs to be accountability when the SPC forecast bust so badly.  Yes there were tornadoes and lives lost but again a high risk in certain areas and not a single warning.  Not just this week but last week also.  It’s great it did but the stress that it causes also needs to be considered.  I respect all meteorologist.  That said they need to be held accountable just like normal people are in their jobs. As was said earlier.  They should not issue a moderate or high risk till day of and the high when it’s happening. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 09:38:32 PM
Inglewood hail action from the first storm this afternoon: https://www.reddit.com/r/nashville/comments/mddcns/east_nash_inglewood_storm_damage/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/nashville/comments/mddcns/east_nash_inglewood_storm_damage/)
Wow incredible.  With the way the trees seemed to be topped wonder if weak EF0 tornado went by?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 09:39:19 PM
Look I apologize for offending anyone on here.  I know forecasting is not easy.  We can maybe make a separate thread to discuss forecasting and expectations.  Many people get stress levels very high and it also affects daily lives and businesses.  So to me this was a “bust” thankfully.  To me there needs to be accountability when the SPC forecast bust so badly.  Yes there were tornadoes and lives lost but again a high risk in certain areas and not a single warning.  Not just this week but last week also.  It’s great it did but the stress that it causes also needs to be considered.  I respect all meteorologist.  That said they need to be held accountable just like normal people are in their jobs. As was said earlier.  They should not issue a moderate or high risk till day of and the high when it’s happening.

I don't think anyone was offended.  It was expectations vs reality.  Sometimes they are miles apart.  But that doesn't mean the NWS service shouldn't do the job they are paid to do.

Glad you made it through the night without damage to life or property.  Give that dog a big hug.  He's a good barometer.   ;)
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 25, 2021, 09:42:04 PM
In all reality it was as far as "high risk" was concerned.
We’ll wait for the damage surveys to verify that.

Many folks thought St. Patrick’s Day was a bust for the high risk, when in reality, it actually did verify, per SPC standards.


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Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 09:44:55 PM
Impressed by the sudden appearance of convection west of Knoxville out of nowhere.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2021, 09:47:44 PM
Nothing warned downstream, I’m considering going to bed. Thankful for another mostly uneventful outbreak up here.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 09:50:06 PM
Nothing warned downstream, I’m considering going to bed. Thankful for another mostly uneventful outbreak up here.

I was heading there.  But the sudden growth of storms to my west gives me pause.  But it's pretty cool here now--down to 58.  I think I'm safe.  *famous last words*
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 25, 2021, 09:56:28 PM
When I saw the notch starting to take shape around LaVergne I panicked when I saw the the motion headed towards me. Called my friend almost immediately and headed to their place in Mt Juliet to take shelter. Drove through blinding rain down 40W in the process. My initial instinct was to drive south down 109 since storm motion was to the NE...THAT would have been a terrible idea.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 09:59:21 PM
We’ll wait for the damage surveys to verify that.

Many folks thought St. Patrick’s Day was a bust for the high risk, when in reality, it actually did verify, per SPC standards.


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I will admit I think my expectations of a high risk are clouded as a lot of peoples are I’m sure.  When we think high risk we believe there will be large violent tornadoes.  Like strong EF3-EF5.  Instead several EF0-EF2 can make it a high verification.  Maybe that’s where the SPC can change the narrative and thinking.  Like looking at our watch for this area below.  Do we believe that it verified as a moderate?  Again not at all trying to be rude or an ass.  I am just trying to have open conversation about how many feel. 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2021, 10:00:03 PM
Quote
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of
     Eastern Kentucky
     Eastern Tennessee

   * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1025 PM
     until 200 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Multiple clusters should move east from central Kentucky
   and Middle Tennessee with a continued threat for a couple tornadoes
   and scattered damaging winds.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 10:56:56 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/MisheylaIwasiuk/status/1375229138534072327

Has anyone else heard about this? seriously what parents would do this? 
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2021, 11:06:05 PM
He's good. He's tweeting a mile a minute.

Good Lord, what a fiasco that was.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 11:06:43 PM
Good Lord, what a fiasco that was.
Do tell
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2021, 11:19:42 PM
Apparently after not expecting anything.  The largest tornado of the day just hit Newnan GA heading toward Peach Tree.  Was not even expected to be that bad in GA.  Wx sure is fickle.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: jwr2914 on March 25, 2021, 11:46:55 PM
I will admit I think my expectations of a high risk are clouded as a lot of peoples are I’m sure.  When we think high risk we believe there will be large violent tornadoes.  Like strong EF3-EF5.  Instead several EF0-EF2 can make it a high verification.  Maybe that’s where the SPC can change the narrative and thinking.  Like looking at our watch for this area below.  Do we believe that it verified as a moderate?  Again not at all trying to be rude or an ass.  I am just trying to have open conversation about how many feel.

I completely agree here with you. Something needs to change for sure.

I think when this is all said and done, this system underperformed the last one as far as actual official tornado storm report counts. The caveat here is that these tornados appeared stronger than the last setup.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 26, 2021, 02:00:10 AM
I will admit I think my expectations of a high risk are clouded as a lot of peoples are I’m sure.  When we think high risk we believe there will be large violent tornadoes.  Like strong EF3-EF5.  Instead several EF0-EF2 can make it a high verification.  Maybe that’s where the SPC can change the narrative and thinking.  Like looking at our watch for this area below.  Do we believe that it verified as a moderate?  Again not at all trying to be rude or an ass.  I am just trying to have open conversation about how many feel.

An EF-2 is considered a strong tornado.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 26, 2021, 02:40:31 AM
There is literally damage in Smyrna from a, likely, tornado and you are still claiming bust.

I just can’t with people anymore. Now I remember why I took a hiatus from this site. ****.

It’s almost as if unless we have hundreds of tornadoes and dozens of deaths every event will be a bust in some peoples eyes.

Last time I checked EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes have caused damage and loss of life. Why are y’all not wanting to count them in the official tally in regards to if a high or mdt risk verified or not?

And the hatched tornado risk zones say there is a 10% chance of a significant tornado within 25 miles of any point in that zone. You know what that means? There is a 90% chance a significant tornado WON’T touch down.

People fail to look at the percentages. All they see is the categorical risk and run with it. Much like how people just read the headline of an article and don’t dig deeper
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 26, 2021, 03:03:48 AM
An EF-2 is considered a strong tornado.
you are correct.... Ef 2 is in strong category
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 26, 2021, 04:32:29 AM
Fred has a picture of the Waynesboro, TN tornado.

There were even a few reports of damage across Central Kentucky as well. Add that to the significant damage across AL/and West GA then this event was still a formidable severe weather event.

The main problem with this was not whether it was High Risk worthy (it was) it was the location of the High Risk and what ended up happening was the models (pretty much all of them) overhyped the shortwave strength so what should have been a 995MB low over SE Missouri or even Central IL was instead a 1000MB low that moved from far E Arkansas to SE IL.  Hence the storm tracked further southeast so therefore the threat did as well.  Kevin hinted at this earlier in the day. With the system being a bit weaker it didn't allow for the most unstable air to march north as well.  Stronger the storm the better the advection.   

Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 26, 2021, 05:09:26 AM
Main thing here we all
Made it through this at least hope we all did , to live and  see another system... maybe we can get a sub 980 parked over southern Iowa with great height falls and we all would be happy .
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: cliftown04 on March 26, 2021, 06:55:11 AM
Major kudos to Fred and Ben for their work at Tn valley weather in Lawrenceburg. They did great on the storm that moved from Hardin county across Wayne county. They are top notch no gimmicks just knowledge of the area and of storms. Finally we have some help down in here in southwest middle Tn. They will certainly save lives.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 26, 2021, 08:09:40 AM
We’ll wait for the damage surveys to verify that.

Many folks thought St. Patrick’s Day was a bust for the high risk, when in reality, it actually did verify, per SPC standards.


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agreed i think if in the high risk area this time there were for strong tornadoes than last, maybe less quantity though but still a rough event....now the western areas of Mississippi can claim bust i think if they want to in moderate and high risk, but that just happens sometimes as the day unfolds
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: kristin on March 26, 2021, 08:36:04 AM
Good Lord, what a fiasco that was.

My son lives in Rutherford Co so I follow you on twitter.  I'm assuming it's you :)

Do you have any suggestions for severe weather follows closer to Crossville - Knoxville?
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 26, 2021, 08:43:57 AM
My son lives in Rutherford Co so I follow you on twitter.  I'm assuming it's you :)

Do you have any suggestions for severe weather follows closer to Crossville - Knoxville?

He is I and I am him.  Slim with a tilted brim.  Thanks for following!

Hit up @CumberlandWx.  Unfortunately Crossville/Cumberland Co is as far east as we go.
Title: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: kristin on March 26, 2021, 08:48:37 AM
He is I and I am him.  Slim with a tilted brim.  Thanks for following!

Hit up @CumberlandWx.  Unfortunately Crossville/Cumberland Co is as far east as we go.

You did a great job last night!!  Thanks for the suggestion, I'll check it out!
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 26, 2021, 11:11:56 AM
There is literally damage in Smyrna from a, likely, tornado and you are still claiming bust.

I just can’t with people anymore. Now I remember why I took a hiatus from this site. ****.

It’s almost as if unless we have hundreds of tornadoes and dozens of deaths every event will be a bust in some peoples eyes.

Last time I checked EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes have caused damage and loss of life. Why are y’all not wanting to count them in the official tally in regards to if a high or mdt risk verified or not?

And the hatched tornado risk zones say there is a 10% chance of a significant tornado within 25 miles of any point in that zone. You know what that means? There is a 90% chance a significant tornado WON’T touch down.

People fail to look at the percentages. All they see is the categorical risk and run with it. Much like how people just read the headline of an article and don’t dig deeper

For what it's worth I count all tornadoes, not just major ones.  That said, I appreciate your side of things man, I really do.   Please do not take it personally or get upset.  Between you and I its just discussion and I consider you a valuable member of this community.  If its something you do not want to debate, fair enough I will lay off.  I just enjoy a spirited conversation and you are representing your side well.  In the end though, its nothing but love. 
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 26, 2021, 11:24:06 AM
There is literally damage in Smyrna from a, likely, tornado and you are still claiming bust.

I just can’t with people anymore. Now I remember why I took a hiatus from this site. ****.

It’s almost as if unless we have hundreds of tornadoes and dozens of deaths every event will be a bust in some peoples eyes.

Last time I checked EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes have caused damage and loss of life. Why are y’all not wanting to count them in the official tally in regards to if a high or mdt risk verified or not?

And the hatched tornado risk zones say there is a 10% chance of a significant tornado within 25 miles of any point in that zone. You know what that means? There is a 90% chance a significant tornado WON’T touch down.

People fail to look at the percentages. All they see is the categorical risk and run with it. Much like how people just read the headline of an article and don’t dig deeper

I " think" what some were getting at is high risk and moderate risk wording from spc outlooks is usually about "many" strong violent tornadoes ? I get both sides though.
I certainly do not want an ef0 near my home either!!

To the spc credit, yesterday they started trimming the western edges of the moderate and high risk because they saw it was just not going to happen there. Again people forget that a high risk is 30% probs , that means there is a 70% chance of it not happening as well.

While i do think the moderate risk was overdone in hindsight in this area that does not mean that a few tornadoes didn't occur, but at this point it does not look like any long track tornadoes happened, but the threat was real and SPC did the best they could, i would not say it was a massive bust up this way, but it did underwhelm just a bit as compared to the wording of the spc outlook and nws offices. But they do their best!

the atmosphere will do what it wants, just like there are other instances of the opposite happening....1999 moore outbreak was slight risk day until the afternoon when spc saw it was a supercharged day and upgraded to high risk, you just can't be perfect
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 26, 2021, 11:57:57 AM
Cameron Nixon on Twitter said this:
Quote
Amazing illustration of where I hope research and forecasting is headed. Less focus on predicting the hazards themselves based off parameter statistics, more focus on understanding when supercell structures will be "built" to be capable of these hazards.

This is the biggest point I suppose I am trying to make by my comments yesterday.  Focusing on parameter statistics has about peaked in how good they can predict these outbreaks leading to under performance and busts.  The SPC did everything right based on the data, yet we had huge swaths of the risk areas that saw nothing, and other areas in much lower risk see strong violent tornadoes.  Parts of the issue is in the social science side of how risks are shared as well.  Personally I think the whole risk outlook system along with how we warn for tornadoes is flawed and the whole thing needs a good reboot.  I have my own ideas but I will not get into that here.
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 26, 2021, 12:07:50 PM
Cameron Nixon on Twitter said this:
Quote
Amazing illustration of where I hope research and forecasting is headed. Less focus on predicting the hazards themselves based off parameter statistics, more focus on understanding when supercell structures will be "built" to be capable of these hazards.

This is the biggest point I suppose I am trying to make by my comments yesterday.  Focusing on parameter statistics has about peaked in how good they can predict these outbreaks leading to under performance and busts.  The SPC did everything right based on the data, yet we had huge swaths of the risk areas that saw nothing, and other areas in much lower risk see strong violent tornadoes.  Parts of the issue is in the social science side of how risks are shared as well.  Personally I think the whole risk outlook system along with how we warn for tornadoes is flawed and the whole thing needs a good reboot.  I have my own ideas but I will not get into that here.

even spann the man said yesterday , "this is not unfolding how the models showed", i am like you, not saying anything really busted as much as it didn't pan out as modeled
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: justinmundie on March 26, 2021, 01:27:16 PM
Thought I’d give an update. We had a supercell with strong, but broad, rotation moving into the east side of bham (where I live). All media and NWS focus was on the buzz saw going through Shelby county. I told my wife and kids to head to the basement and finally we got a warning. By that point there was all ready a tds (but not yet updated on RadarScope) so I was standing on my second floor porch (we have a split level) recording video. Things turned really green and creepy after 10 seconds so I went inside to get my things to take to the basement and suddenly it was on us. Technically I think it was just across the street. Regardless our house is not damaged. But all our neighbors have trees through their homes. We live adjacent to a nature preserve so there are tons of old growth trees throughout the neighborhood. Probably 5 houses near me will have to be demoed. One completely cut in half right on the ridge line of the roof.

Still without power, and probably will be without for a couple days.

I was really mad at NWS for not warning the storm earlier. A lot of people just to the east had literally seconds from the time their phones went off until the tornado was on them.
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: JayCee on March 26, 2021, 01:34:08 PM
Thought I’d give an update. We had a supercell with strong, but broad, rotation moving into the east side of bham (where I live). All media and NWS focus was on the buzz saw going through Shelby county. I told my wife and kids to head to the basement and finally we got a warning. By that point there was all ready a tds (but not yet updated on RadarScope) so I was standing on my second floor porch (we have a split level) recording video. Things turned really green and creepy after 10 seconds so I went inside to get my things to take to the basement and suddenly it was on us. Technically I think it was just across the street. Regardless our house is not damaged. But all our neighbors have trees through their homes. We live adjacent to a nature preserve so there are tons of old growth trees throughout the neighborhood. Probably 5 houses near me will have to be demoed. One completely cut in half right on the ridge line of the roof.

Still without power, and probably will be without for a couple days.

I was really mad at NWS for not warning the storm earlier. A lot of people just to the east had literally seconds from the time their phones went off until the tornado was on them.

Wow.  Glad you and your family made it through safely.
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: budrow014 on March 26, 2021, 02:49:39 PM
Did the big hailer storm that went through Nashville ever have a couplet? I’m an adjuster and went to Portland today to look at a few homes. There was a nice path about 3-4 miles long that looked like EF1 damage. Was quite surprised as the storm was never tornado warned that I remember.
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 26, 2021, 03:00:29 PM
Cameron Nixon on Twitter said this:
Quote
Amazing illustration of where I hope research and forecasting is headed. Less focus on predicting the hazards themselves based off parameter statistics, more focus on understanding when supercell structures will be "built" to be capable of these hazards.

This is the biggest point I suppose I am trying to make by my comments yesterday.  Focusing on parameter statistics has about peaked in how good they can predict these outbreaks leading to under performance and busts.  The SPC did everything right based on the data, yet we had huge swaths of the risk areas that saw nothing, and other areas in much lower risk see strong violent tornadoes.  Parts of the issue is in the social science side of how risks are shared as well.  Personally I think the whole risk outlook system along with how we warn for tornadoes is flawed and the whole thing needs a good reboot.  I have my own ideas but I will not get into that here.


Totally agree.  Charles you are awesome and I do enjoy your input.  In no way am I meaning to say I don’t care.  Last night I saw a forecaster in North MS tweeted his last 2 weeks predictions busted.  That he and the SPC both busted.  This is an actual forecaster willing to admit they were wrong.  He also said he was going to try and do better and figure out what he and the SPC missed.  He apologized.  No one asked him to apologize but I understand his response.  Many peoples lives are affected by what they say. 
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: justinmundie on March 26, 2021, 03:06:51 PM
Did the big hailer storm that went through Nashville ever have a couplet? I’m an adjuster and went to Portland today to look at a few homes. There was a nice path about 3-4 miles long that looked like EF1 damage. Was quite surprised as the storm was never tornado warned that I remember.

I don’t believe so. Suspect what you saw was a wet microburst from the hail core
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 26, 2021, 03:10:10 PM

Totally agree.  Charles you are awesome and I do enjoy your input.  In no way am I meaning to say I don’t care.  Last night I saw a forecaster in North MS tweeted his last 2 weeks predictions busted.  That he and the SPC both busted.  This is an actual forecaster willing to admit they were wrong.  He also said he was going to try and do better and figure out what he and the SPC missed.  He apologized.  No one asked him to apologize but I understand his response.  Many peoples lives are affected by what they say.

yes i can say i think the mississippi area was a bust, BUT the system overall did produce some big damage in Bama ( as usual) it was a high impact event maybe not exactly a high risk verification we just don't know yet, BUT when a forecast doesn't go as planned in any event there is always a chance to LEARN what happened, I am no met but would love to learn what happened to cause the models to be off by about 100 miles to the east for the initiantion zone in mississippi, had it initiated in the wide open western warm sector as forecast it would have ben a BAD BAD day for a lot more people including us here in southern mid state....we may never know

Another thing is nws mets in different areas forecast very differently as well, for instance tomorrow spc has i-65 west in a hatched zone of 10 percent tornado probs, that is just a heart beat away from being in a moderate risk category yet nws ohx hazard page says chance is low, when that is exactly why there is an enhanced risk, so messaging is very off a lot of the time
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Charles L. on March 26, 2021, 03:24:59 PM
NWS found EF-2 damage in Wayne County and determined straight line winds of 85 mph caused the damage in Nashville and Portland. They still have to survey Lewis County area as well as Smyrna up to Gladeville.
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 26, 2021, 03:29:39 PM
NWS found EF-2 damage in Wayne County and determined straight line winds of 85 mph caused the damage in Nashville and Portland. They still have to survey Lewis County area as well as Smyrna up to Gladeville.

I knew wayne HAD to be one it was close to crossing into lewis for a bit like you mentioned
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 26, 2021, 04:47:35 PM
I don’t believe so. Suspect what you saw was a wet microburst from the hail core

Yes.  NWS determined it to be a wet microburst with 85mph winds.
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 26, 2021, 06:00:50 PM
Newnan, GA tornado upgraded to preliminary EF-4.


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Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 26, 2021, 08:05:07 PM
Newnan, GA tornado upgraded to preliminary EF-4.


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I think that is probably the biggest beef with the SPC is when you have MDT's and HIGH's that underperform but you get that in the Slight Risk zone.

Granted Charles has a point, but outside of the Southern MS tornadoes last year all of the violent tornadoes, the past 3 years have occurred in Marginal to Enhanced Risk zones. That does sting. 

Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 26, 2021, 08:06:59 PM
I think if we just lose the names and start going by numbers that will help somewhat. 

Really Slight, Marginal, Enhanced, Moderate, etc. those are pretty subjective and can be hard for a public member that doesn't care about weather to understand.

I am glad to see more broadcast METS actually using the numbers instead of the names.  I do both when I do discussions on my page. 
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 26, 2021, 08:47:57 PM
Smyrna confirmed EF-1 & Gladeville EF-0.


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Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 26, 2021, 10:20:35 PM
the other thread won't allow replies????
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 26, 2021, 10:26:56 PM
Smyrna confirmed EF-1 & Gladeville EF-0.


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The Smyrna one was 4 miles from my house.  No wonder it got so still when I went out to look.
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 26, 2021, 10:27:23 PM
the other thread won't allow replies????

Try it now.

It was locked, and I unlocked it.

I checked the logs, and it looks like I locked it. Not intentional. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 27, 2021, 06:53:24 AM
Should check this out. Yes, SPC forecasters even made big mistakes back in the 80s. But a lot of those high risk days verified.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 27, 2021, 08:05:08 AM
Should check this out. Yes, SPC forecasters even made big mistakes back in the 80s. But a lot of those high risk days verified.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days

Look even at 4/14/12.  An event where the NW side of the KS/OK verified well but there was nothing down in Oklahoma City which was under a 45% hatched.   
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 27, 2021, 08:05:57 AM
This system did produce a high-end EF-1 with an injury in Vermont yesterday afternoon.   
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 27, 2021, 08:29:20 AM
Look even at 4/14/12.  An event where the NW side of the KS/OK verified well but there was nothing down in Oklahoma City which was under a 45% hatched.

it sure does happen sometimes, i have seen high risk days for only 10 tornadoes verified
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: mempho on March 27, 2021, 08:44:51 AM
Thought I’d give an update. We had a supercell with strong, but broad, rotation moving into the east side of bham (where I live). All media and NWS focus was on the buzz saw going through Shelby county. I told my wife and kids to head to the basement and finally we got a warning. By that point there was all ready a tds (but not yet updated on RadarScope) so I was standing on my second floor porch (we have a split level) recording video. Things turned really green and creepy after 10 seconds so I went inside to get my things to take to the basement and suddenly it was on us. Technically I think it was just across the street. Regardless our house is not damaged. But all our neighbors have trees through their homes. We live adjacent to a nature preserve so there are tons of old growth trees throughout the neighborhood. Probably 5 houses near me will have to be demoed. One completely cut in half right on the ridge line of the roof.

Still without power, and probably will be without for a couple days.

I was really mad at NWS for not warning the storm earlier. A lot of people just to the east had literally seconds from the time their phones went off until the tornado was on them.
Wow

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Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 30, 2021, 03:17:23 PM
did the nws complete all surveys , i never heard if the lewis county damage was from the tornado that hit wayne county as well?
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: Navywxman on March 30, 2021, 04:05:48 PM
did the nws complete all surveys , i never heard if the lewis county damage was from the tornado that hit wayne county as well?
It began 3mi ENE of Waynesboro & ended 4.5mi NW of Summertown. The survey text does say "extreme southern Lewis County" but haven't seen a track map posted yet. They're likely forthcoming but delayed somewhat given recent & ongoing issues, particularly related to flooding & then the massive comms failure overnight and into this morning.
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 30, 2021, 04:26:41 PM
It began 3mi ENE of Waynesboro & ended 4.5mi NW of Summertown. The survey text does say "extreme southern Lewis County" but haven't seen a track map posted yet. They're likely forthcoming but delayed somewhat given recent & ongoing issues, particularly related to flooding & then the massive comms failure overnight and into this morning.

thanks Navy! I am sure that is it then as the damage at the campground on the natchez trace is in southern lewis about 1 mile from lawrence county
Title: Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on April 01, 2021, 08:12:17 AM
thanks Navy! I am sure that is it then as the damage at the campground on the natchez trace is in southern lewis about 1 mile from lawrence county

yes the track map shows a continuous tornado for over 20 miles....pretty close to being long track