Post by: Thundersnow on February 22, 2021, 01:50:35 PM
What will be our "lions" and "lambs" this year and when? More winter? Transition to spring? Severe odds?
Seems like the month will be starting out wet.
Post by: gcbama on February 22, 2021, 01:57:13 PM
Alright- under a week till March 1st.
What will be our "lions" and "lambs" this year and when? More winter? Transition to spring? Severe odds?
Seems like the month will be starting out wet.
Thinking mid to end of march will be when severe season starts in earnest around here....hoping for nothing like last march
Post by: Bruce on February 22, 2021, 02:32:59 PM
Post by: Crockett on February 22, 2021, 03:39:43 PM
(https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/07/GettyImages-1294935359-1320x880.jpg)
Post by: gcbama on February 22, 2021, 04:24:26 PM
Not saying it is mets fault at all, it is just mother nature can pull rabbits out of her hat sometimes
Post by: Bruce on February 22, 2021, 05:05:25 PM
Hard to believe "if i am correct" our last high risk Day in mid-state was March 2012 . Not a bad thing at all, and after what happened in the past two seasons of having major to violent tornadoes show up completely unexpected in slight risk and marginal risk zones (nashville/cookeville and north birmingham) I will be keeping closer eye on things than I have in past, I am not go to bed anymore thinking everything is ok after what has happened recently with forecasting .last high risk here was May 2011
Not saying it is mets fault at all, it is just mother nature can pull rabbits out of her hat sometimes
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 22, 2021, 08:39:24 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on February 22, 2021, 09:39:28 PM
The spring severe weather season never materializes. The SPC issues a couple of moderate outlooks but both bust. On May 21, Bruce storms NWS Nashville offices dressed like this.
(https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/07/GettyImages-1294935359-1320x880.jpg)
Bruce will go big. He'll drive out to Oklahoma and storm the Storm Prediction Center in Norman.
Post by: stayrose38 on February 22, 2021, 09:58:14 PM
Post by: gcbama on February 23, 2021, 08:17:31 AM
last high risk here was May 2011
March 2012 (henryville tornado outbreak) I-40 north started the day in high risk
Post by: Navywxman on February 23, 2021, 08:21:45 AM
March 2012 (henryville tornado outbreak) I-40 north started the day in high riskThe day gradient winds were the worst for most in the mid state & significant mixing saved as well, minus the I-40 supercell that was mostly notable for its hail versus the couple of weak tornadoes.
Post by: Bruce on February 23, 2021, 08:43:23 AM
March 2012 (henryville tornado outbreak) I-40 north started the day in high riskjust remember it was mainly Ohio valley north there threat
Post by: gcbama on February 23, 2021, 09:14:19 AM
The day gradient winds were the worst for most in the mid state & significant mixing saved as well, minus the I-40 supercell that was mostly notable for its hail versus the couple of weak tornadoes.
Yes I know, I was just stating that was the last day that the Mid-State was technically under a high risk, the fact it did not verify is not what I was really getting at lol
Post by: gcbama on February 23, 2021, 09:16:08 AM
Post by: Navywxman on February 23, 2021, 09:28:44 AM
Yes I know, I was just stating that was the last day that the Mid-State was technically under a high risk, the fact it did not verify is not what I was really getting at lolI wasn't discounting that, just stating the area basically saw only 1 significant supercell split between the chaos to the north & the morning disrespect in the Huntsville area that pummeled Chattanooga as well.
Post by: gcbama on February 23, 2021, 09:40:58 AM
I wasn't discounting that, just stating the area basically saw only 1 significant supercell split between the chaos to the north & the morning disrespect in the Huntsville area that pummeled Chattanooga as well.
No worries!
It's so interesting though to me how in the past year we had two f3+ supercell tornadoes in the south in what was considered marginal to barely slight risk environment . You just never know
Post by: StormNine on February 23, 2021, 07:45:39 PM
No worries!
It's so interesting though to me how in the past year we had two f3+ supercell tornadoes in the south in what was considered marginal to barely slight risk environment . You just never know
Every deadly tornado in Kentucky or Tennessee in the last five years has occurred during a Marginal, Slight, or Enhanced Risk.
With low-amp troughs that is what you have to watch for those classic Oh **** Slight/Enhanced Risk events. It may not always be the sexy sub 990mb low in Iowa that is your textbook Moderate to High Risk. Backed winds, solid moisture return, at least decent to good shear, and just 500-700 CAPE can take of business just like our more highly sheared/unstable events can.
Post by: andyhb on February 23, 2021, 08:01:30 PM
Bruce will go big. He'll drive out to Oklahoma and storm the Storm Prediction Center in Norman.
Don't you put that evil on us.
Post by: gcbama on February 24, 2021, 09:51:38 AM
Every deadly tornado in Kentucky or Tennessee in the last five years has occurred during a Marginal, Slight, or Enhanced Risk.
With low-amp troughs that is what you have to watch for those classic Oh **** Slight/Enhanced Risk events. It may not always be the sexy sub 990mb low in Iowa that is your textbook Moderate to High Risk. Backed winds, solid moisture return, at least decent to good shear, and just 500-700 CAPE can take of business just like our more highly sheared/unstable events can.
Agreed many mets now a days get so caught up in cape values , if not 1,000 or above they think nothing can happen
Post by: Thundersnow on February 26, 2021, 11:19:56 AM
Hopefully, there will be some nice days between systems.
Post by: Bruce on February 26, 2021, 12:20:56 PM
Other than somewhat wet at times, it's looking like a calm first half of March to me... nothing particularly interesting on the temperature side of things (50s-60s for highs with 40s for lows). I still don't see much to write home about on either severe or winter weather fronts... just a generous hydration of soils and water tables as we move into early spring.severe Weather starts second week March... and winter is done here . Guess wet times for now appears ...
Hopefully, there will be some nice days between systems.
Post by: David on February 26, 2021, 12:34:49 PM
severe Weather starts second week March... and winter is done here . Guess wet times for now appears ...
Book it! Bruce can you pinpoint the locations that will be seeing Severe weather in 3 weeks?
Post by: Bruce on February 26, 2021, 03:09:11 PM
Book it! Bruce can you pinpoint the locations that will be seeing Severe weather in 3 weeks?yes sir ... just not exactly towns ...
Post by: StormNine on February 27, 2021, 11:01:53 AM
Carolina Beach, NC (EF-3 on Feb 2021 with a Slight Risk)
Fultondale, AL (EF-3 on Jan 2021 with a Slight Risk)
NW Minnesota (EF-4 on 7/8/2020 with a Slight Risk 2-5% tornado)
Chattanooga, TN (EF-3), Seneca, SC (EF-3), and Hampton, SC (EF-4) Easter 2020 Tornado Outbreak (these tornadoes occurred outside of the MDT risk zone.
Cookeville, TN (EF-4): Occurred in a Marginal Risk zone with a 0% tornado probability on 3/3/2020. Additional tornadoes occurred in the general thunderstorm region.
Camden, TN (EF-2) and Nashville/Mt. Juliet/Lebanon (EF-3) occurred in a 5% tornado Slight Risk on 3/2/3/3/2020
Lee County, AL (EF-4) In an Enhanced Risk Zone deadliest since 4/27/2011
Christiana, TN (Nov 2018) Deadly EF-2 in an Enhanced Risk Zone
Logan/Robertson County TN and NE Arkansas deadly EF-2 tornadoes and a significant EF-2 tornado in Clarksville (Feb 2018) all in an Enhanced Risk Zone. One of the most active tornado events as far as raw number in the KY/TN border region.
Ocoee, TN area (Nov 2016): Overshadowed by the major Sevier County wildfire during that same timeframe a deadly EF-3 tornado hits Polk County. Polk County was under a Marginal Risk at the time.
Mayfield, KY area (May 2016) A pretty potent regional outbreak occurred during a Slight to Enhanced Risk with several EF-1 to EF-2 tornadoes plus the Mayfield EF-3 and many 2+ inch hail events. One of the more intense tornado/hail events of the decade for Western KY.
Leap Day 2012: A major outbreak occurred across the Ozarks across the Ohio River Valley in areas that had a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe weather. This included some EF-3 and one EF-4 tornado.
January 2012: The NWS of Louisville CWA reports its largest January Tornado Outbreak under the equivalent of a Marginal Risk. Some tornadoes reach up to EF-2 strength.
New Years' Eve 2010: Deadly tornadoes strike NW Arkansas and the Ozarks. Most of the events occurred with the equivalent of a no-risk to barely in a Slight Risk. Probably the worst miss in the modern era.
1/7/2008 One of about 3 events in the Ozarks in 2008 that went more berserk than forecast. The definition of the Oh **** Slight Risk with tornadoes from the Ozarks to Wisconsin. Wisconsin wasn't even under a Slight Risk when it was hit by an EF-3 tornado which was one of the furthest north January tornadoes on record.
11/5-11/6/2005: The Evansville/Henderson EF-3 tornado occurred in a Slight Risk.
Post by: StormNine on February 27, 2021, 11:08:20 AM
3/2/2012
5/25/2011
4/26-4/27/2011
2/5/2008
4/7/2006
11/15/2005
5/30/2004
5/4-5/5/2003
11/10/2002
5/5/1999
1-21/1-22/1999
4/16/1998
Really the only ones that underperformed a bit were the two most recent, but they did feature more significant tornado activity just outside of our area.
Post by: schneitzeit on February 27, 2021, 11:40:26 AM
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2021, 10:22:11 PM
Lions unite in the Winter subforum. FIVE FEET DEEP (and March can do it)!
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Post by: Bruce on March 01, 2021, 05:47:22 AM
Everything seems to be a clustered mess so far...which was not entirely unexpected...but nothing is really able to root into the surface boundary layer to really go off. There also appears to be a little boundary noticeable on NQA sliding SE which seems to be undercutting the convection which also prohibits the storms from rooting to fully surface-based.the 0z gfs is starting to show some fantasy big time severe weather threats . See if we hold on that solution as time draws near .
Post by: Flash on March 01, 2021, 06:56:44 AM
Here the recent (past decade or so examples of deadly tornadoes or EF-3+ that have occurred in less than Moderate Risks: This is not a diss at the SPC, but just showing us that even Marginal Risks like today and tomorrow need to be watched.
Carolina Beach, NC (EF-3 on Feb 2021 with a Slight Risk)
Fultondale, AL (EF-3 on Jan 2021 with a Slight Risk)
NW Minnesota (EF-4 on 7/8/2020 with a Slight Risk 2-5% tornado)
Chattanooga, TN (EF-3), Seneca, SC (EF-3), and Hampton, SC (EF-4) Easter 2020 Tornado Outbreak (these tornadoes occurred outside of the MDT risk zone.
Cookeville, TN (EF-4): Occurred in a Marginal Risk zone with a 0% tornado probability on 3/3/2020. Additional tornadoes occurred in the general thunderstorm region.
Camden, TN (EF-2) and Nashville/Mt. Juliet/Lebanon (EF-3) occurred in a 5% tornado Slight Risk on 3/2/3/3/2020
Lee County, AL (EF-4) In an Enhanced Risk Zone deadliest since 4/27/2011
Christiana, TN (Nov 2018) Deadly EF-2 in an Enhanced Risk Zone
Logan/Robertson County TN and NE Arkansas deadly EF-2 tornadoes and a significant EF-2 tornado in Clarksville (Feb 2018) all in an Enhanced Risk Zone. One of the most active tornado events as far as raw number in the KY/TN border region.
Ocoee, TN area (Nov 2016): Overshadowed by the major Sevier County wildfire during that same timeframe a deadly EF-3 tornado hits Polk County. Polk County was under a Marginal Risk at the time.
Mayfield, KY area (May 2016) A pretty potent regional outbreak occurred during a Slight to Enhanced Risk with several EF-1 to EF-2 tornadoes plus the Mayfield EF-3 and many 2+ inch hail events. One of the more intense tornado/hail events of the decade for Western KY.
Leap Day 2012: A major outbreak occurred across the Ozarks across the Ohio River Valley in areas that had a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe weather. This included some EF-3 and one EF-4 tornado.
January 2012: The NWS of Louisville CWA reports its largest January Tornado Outbreak under the equivalent of a Marginal Risk. Some tornadoes reach up to EF-2 strength.
New Years' Eve 2010: Deadly tornadoes strike NW Arkansas and the Ozarks. Most of the events occurred with the equivalent of a no-risk to barely in a Slight Risk. Probably the worst miss in the modern era.
1/7/2008 One of about 3 events in the Ozarks in 2008 that went more berserk than forecast. The definition of the Oh **** Slight Risk with tornadoes from the Ozarks to Wisconsin. Wisconsin wasn't even under a Slight Risk when it was hit by an EF-3 tornado which was one of the furthest north January tornadoes on record.
11/5-11/6/2005: The Evansville/Henderson EF-3 tornado occurred in a Slight Risk.
Great research. Thank you for taking the time to post. Despite the periodical whiffs, you can see SPC has gradually improved with time. 3/3/20 was the ultimate overachiever for our area. We'll be citing this event for a long time in terms of cautioning people to take the 'slight' risks seriously. For the record, the bottom half of the risk zone criteria wording still drives me crazy but that's another topic for another day.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2021, 04:04:57 PM
I will not be giving up on March for winter. I am against this "General Weather" subforum.
Lions unite in the Winter subforum. FIVE FEET DEEP (and March can do it)!
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Just to weigh in on something here-
Last year, we decided to start keeping track of day to day discussion in month-specific threads. The "General Weather" subforum makes sense as a place to keep those, since all kinds of weather could happen in any given month. I noticed that some of the recent months, like December, January, and February, got created in the Winter Weather subforum. That's fine, I guess, since it's been the winter season, But, if I had noticed or thought about it, I might have even moved those under this General subforum. These month threads can include all kinds of weather... whatever weather may occur in these months. Just because a month thread is in General does not mean we're saying winter weather might not occur during the month. If a wintry weather system shows up and warrants a thread, guess where it's going to go? In the Winter Weather subforum. It's the same as if a severe weather system occur during a winter month. We'll put that in the Severe Weather subforum. There may be general discussion that occurs in the month thread, but when it comes time to break out into a specific discussion about winter or severe weather, it should go into the appropriate subforum.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2021, 04:15:26 PM
Month-specific threads should be kept here, from this point forward, regardless of what kind of weather is expected or discussed during any given month.
If a specific weather system warrants a separate thread, then it should be created in the winter weather or severe weather subforum, depending on the kind of weather that system is expected to bring to the state.
Otherwise, ongoing weather discussion or day to day observations can be in these month-specific threads here.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 02, 2021, 06:55:17 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on March 02, 2021, 10:33:53 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2021, 08:25:15 AM
(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1614781179)
Post by: Navywxman on March 03, 2021, 09:47:10 AM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 03, 2021, 10:37:43 AM
Post by: snowdog on March 03, 2021, 10:48:56 AM
Somber morning in Middle Tennessee. 1-year anniversary of the deadly tornado
After you guys posted those nader vids in the the thread, I went and watched some of the live on air stuff from that night. I had never seen it, was asleep at the time and without power for a few days after. Really interesting. Went from not much to ohh sh!t in a matter of minutes.
Post by: Navywxman on March 03, 2021, 11:24:28 AM
After you guys posted those nader vids in the the thread, I went and watched some of the live on air stuff from that night. I had never seen it, was asleep at the time and without power for a few days after. Really interesting. Went from not much to ohh sh!t in a matter of minutes.What kills me is Dan Thomas on WSMV talking about the radar the entire time their camera atop the Renaissance Hotel is pointed north & watches it go right by.
Like, c’mon bro, IT WAS RIGHT THERE!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: Bruce on March 03, 2021, 11:26:24 AM
A nice reprieve because the general consensus after next week is the GOMEX "opening for business" in regards to healthy moisture return in a potential classic western trough, eastern ridge setup leading into spring. ::coffee::gfs ensembles picking that up. ::yum::
Post by: snowdog on March 03, 2021, 11:54:47 AM
What kills me is Dan Thomas on WSMV talking about the radar the entire time their camera atop the Renaissance Hotel is pointed north & watches it go right by.
Like, c’mon bro, IT WAS RIGHT THERE!
Didn't see WSMV. Watched a little WKRN and whichever is CBS affiliate, News 5. News 5 was right next to it, they had some pretty good on the ground footage which is ironic because they also had a front row seat for the 98 tornado too. I lived in Hermitage in 98, torndao went through the backend of my neighborhood. Watched it from my front yard until it was right on top of us then went to the basement. Moved to Mount Juliet and was maybe a tenth of a mile from the one last year. Pretty unreal.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2021, 06:10:47 AM
A nice reprieve because the general consensus after next week is the GOMEX "opening for business" in regards to healthy moisture return in a potential classic western trough, eastern ridge setup leading into spring. ::coffee::
That is the key piece. It takes a few weeks to really get to that point.
In the meantime, we’ve found ourselves in an unexpected but not unwelcome dry regime... maybe another week before our next significant chance of rain.
Post by: Navywxman on March 04, 2021, 07:49:51 AM
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Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2021, 08:13:17 AM
More models are coming on deck with potential severe next weekend/early following week from the Plains & into the Midwest.
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Curious- what do you define as the Plains and Midwest?
To me, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK and TX are the plains, and the eastern parts of NM, CO, WY and MT. I would consider MO, IA, MN, WI, IL, IN, MI and OH the Midwest.
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2021, 08:17:25 AM
Curious- what do you define as the Plains and Midwest?
To me, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK and TX are the plains, and the eastern parts of NM, CO, WY and MT. I would consider MO, IA, MN, WI, IL, IN, MI and OH the Midwest.
Yes.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2021, 06:58:57 AM
A system late next week probably leading to rain chances, but that’s getting out there a ways. The SPC doesn’t seem particularly impressed with severe chances anywhere in their 4-8 day.
I see this fairly calm pattern continuing for us for a while. Models will try to jump on things (either cold or severe) in the long range, which will come and go but tend to fizzle under 10 days.
I’ll stick to my earlier thoughts- late March at the very earliest for any big time severe threats for us, but more likely April. Severe threats will probably affect closer to the Gulf Coast before much significant for us.
On the other side, I’m just not feeling or seeing any substantial wintry threats, although I won’t rule out some sort of early spring cold snap, just hoping if it happens, that it happens before spring emergence to limit damage to agricultural interests.
I know March has brought the biggest snows, but understand there doesn’t seem to be anything on the horizon for that out to mid-month, and the window is closing fast.
In the meantime, enjoy the nice days.
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2021, 07:44:17 AM
Post by: gcbama on March 05, 2021, 08:09:05 AM
Will love the sun setting after 6pm again :)
Post by: Coach B on March 05, 2021, 09:53:43 AM
Curious- what do you define as the Plains and Midwest?
To me, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK and TX are the plains, and the eastern parts of NM, CO, WY and MT. I would consider MO, IA, MN, WI, IL, IN, MI and OH the Midwest.
I read an article recently that stated that western NY and Pennsylvania are more culturally midwestern than they are northeastern. In fact, many from Buffalo, Rochester, and Pittsburg consider themselves midwesterners. Settlement patterns from the 1800s heavily influence this, but I'm sure there is a political side also as many probably don't want to identify as northeastern.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2021, 10:12:45 AM
I was wrong because the models (at that time) were wrong. We had last weekend’s system to end February, but I think that even underperformed the QPF that was forecast.
I think we *might* go wetter the second half of the month, but we’ll see.
Post by: Bruce on March 05, 2021, 12:26:05 PM
Reading back at earlier posts, one thing I was wrong about was the first half of the month being wet.yeah, second half month look both wetter n stormier.
I was wrong because the models (at that time) were wrong. We had last weekend’s system to end February, but I think that even underperformed the QPF that was forecast.
I think we *might* go wetter the second half of the month, but we’ll see.
Post by: David on March 05, 2021, 01:09:36 PM
yeah, second half month look both wetter n stormier.
Bruce, lets not forget about your prophecy of severe weather the 2nd week of March.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2021, 01:18:14 PM
Post by: cloudcrash619 on March 05, 2021, 03:24:36 PM
Curious- what do you define as the Plains and Midwest?
To me, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK and TX are the plains, and the eastern parts of NM, CO, WY and MT. I would consider MO, IA, MN, WI, IL, IN, MI and OH the Midwest.
Nebraska is on the plains, though everyone here refers to the area as the midwest. It might be a different story out towards the panhandle though where you're basically in Wyoming. There's probably some overlap since plains is more geographical and midwest more cultural.
Post by: Bruce on March 05, 2021, 03:25:51 PM
Bruce, lets not forget about your prophecy of severe weather the 2nd week of March.trust me, its matter time. actually i was wrong . we already had a threat though minor... 8)
Post by: StormNine on March 05, 2021, 05:25:28 PM
Nebraska is on the plains, though everyone here refers to the area as the midwest. It might be a different story out towards the panhandle though where you're basically in Wyoming. There's probably some overlap since plains is more geographical and midwest more cultural.
Nebraska is both plains and the Midwest. You can divide the Midwest into 3 regions: Corn Belt, Great Lakes, and Plains.
Just like parts of N TN and KY are considered both the Ohio Valley and the South (Upper South in particular).