Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Curt on February 13, 2021, 08:46:13 PM

Title: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Curt on February 13, 2021, 08:46:13 PM
We are going to need another thread for this one that will be right behind the other. Some models try and warm things...but snow cover will tamper that since the storms are so close. Fire away.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 13, 2021, 09:04:16 PM
So far the guidance has overdone temps all week here in montgomery county. For instance they called for 28 here today and truly most of the day was at 22 except for about a hour when it went to 24 only to drop back down to 22 less than a hour later. The last 3 days they have been off anywhere from 2-5 to high on their guidance. With storm one putting down a snowpack across much of the area and arctic air still around the model guidance is probably going to not handle the arctic air very well there either I would think. It will make for interesting convo when the first system is done.  ::yum:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 13, 2021, 09:10:54 PM
Thank you snow cover & radiational cooling. Let's get both of these

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 13, 2021, 09:45:17 PM
And here we go.... FIVE FEET DEEP!!!

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 13, 2021, 09:46:31 PM
Okay, when should we expect winter storm watches?

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 13, 2021, 09:57:42 PM
Okay, when should we expect winter storm watches?

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tuesday morning ... things keep the trend up
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 13, 2021, 10:15:23 PM
The timing on this starting early morning Wednesday and ending in Thursday. I would expect winter storm watches Monday if there
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 13, 2021, 10:22:35 PM
The timing on this starting early morning Wednesday and ending in Thursday. I would expect winter storm watches Monday if there
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bugalou on February 13, 2021, 11:36:41 PM
Can you have a watch while a warning is still occurring for a separate event?

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Yes.  Happened to me once when I was in NJ.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 14, 2021, 12:23:24 AM
This event as of tonight
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 14, 2021, 12:23:55 AM
I'm waving the white flag on storm 2 for BNA. It ain't happening.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 14, 2021, 12:35:24 AM
I'm waving the white flag on storm 2 for BNA. It ain't happening.
looks icy dog could be epic week
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 14, 2021, 12:44:54 AM
I am bearish on Storm 2 unless you are West of the TN river. At that its going to be another Ice storm. Nashville first then Memphis.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 14, 2021, 12:55:38 AM
I am bearish on Storm 2 unless you are West of the TN river. At that its going to be another Ice storm. Nashville first then Memphis.
storm 2 not really far off having snow profile . 1.5 off at 850 Jackson  n west . Still looks like nice thump snow tail end  I am not worried bout 2m temps
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 14, 2021, 04:03:15 AM
Yes.  Happened to me once when I was in NJ.
That's actually pretty cool. 

Now, call your friends in Jersey and tell them to pay attention.... your about to have the greatest winter storm of all-time in Mississippi!

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on February 14, 2021, 08:31:14 AM
This is a situation where what happens tomorrow determines the path of this storm.

I have seen storms like this that go from wintry mix to rain trend to mostly snow because there was either snowcover or models underestimated the deeper cold air.  The Feb 2010 storm was kinda similar in that approach.   

If we warm up to rain the rain could be heavy like 2-3 inches and cold rain flowing over snow and ice is going to cause problems on its own.   
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 14, 2021, 10:01:51 AM
Going over12 z gfs rain be least our problems  what a run
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 14, 2021, 10:06:31 AM
12zgfs was good run. Slp further nw, which makes sense due to the further east placement of hp. So far so good
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 14, 2021, 10:15:24 AM
I don
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on February 14, 2021, 11:33:00 AM
This system has definitely trended colder. Hard to imagine warming from 0 to 32 in 36 hours with 6 inches of snow on the ground, but crazier things have certainly happened. Man this is fun to watch!
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Heath22 on February 14, 2021, 12:41:38 PM
So basically same areas for this one as the first? Murfreesboro gets screwed twice in a row?
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 14, 2021, 12:45:17 PM
So basically same areas for this one as the first? Murfreesboro gets screwed twice in a row?

Yep. Murfreesboro and Lebanon are under a snow dome.

If it's any consolation, I might be screwed on both of these, too. Lot of ice on the first one and heavy rain on the second. Oh, woe is me!
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Michael on February 14, 2021, 05:00:55 PM
Yep. Murfreesboro and Lebanon are under a snow dome.

If it's any consolation, I might be screwed on both of these, too. Lot of ice on the first one and heavy rain on the second. Oh, woe is me!
Dont worry, East Tn getting screwed on all of it. But, we did get 4.5
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 15, 2021, 10:25:54 AM
I had given up on this storm...but 12z GFS16 just woke me back up. Nice event for the Middle and Western half of the State.

Maybe we can suck out a snow at the very end of this pattern.

Edit: 12z GFS on board as well. Both are a big hit for BNA.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 15, 2021, 10:49:21 AM
I had given up on this storm...but 12z GFS16 just woke me back up. Nice event for the Middle and Western half of the State.

Maybe we can suck out a snow at the very end of this pattern.

Edit: 12z GFS on board as well. Both are a big hit for BNA.

Do not buy what they are selling. You're making a mistake  ::shaking_finger::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 15, 2021, 11:02:26 AM
I had given up on this storm...but 12z GFS16 just woke me back up. Nice event for the Middle and Western half of the State.

Maybe we can suck out a snow at the very end of this pattern.

Edit: 12z GFS on board as well. Both are a big hit for BNA.

I haven't looked at the models myself, but I'm not getting my hopes up if it's another one of those right on the edge things. Maybe this one is a different setup.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 15, 2021, 11:05:02 AM
I mean just about any winter weather opportunity here we are right on some line or the other. All globals are in agreement that there is a chance of winter precip in our area. After today's bust, lets hope the boundary pushes just a little further east and puts us in a better position.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on February 15, 2021, 11:11:42 AM
The deeper the snowpack in Western/Central KY and West TN the better for this system.  Anything that could make a slight difference could be the difference in a place like Nashville or Murfreesboro. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 11:41:54 AM
should be getting winter storm watches by morning ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 15, 2021, 11:51:53 AM
I mean just about any winter weather opportunity here we are right on some line or the other. All globals are in agreement that there is a chance of winter precip in our area. After today's bust, lets hope the boundary pushes just a little further east and puts us in a better position.
Don
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 15, 2021, 12:28:21 PM
Don
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 15, 2021, 12:28:47 PM
12z Euro is in for a light 2-3" snow for BNA with this one.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Woodvegas on February 15, 2021, 12:39:28 PM
2/15 12Z Euro extends the snow shield more to the east compared to previous runs. Looks colder than the GFS.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: stayrose38 on February 15, 2021, 01:00:08 PM
2/15 12Z Euro extends the snow shield more to the east compared to previous runs. Looks colder than the GFS.

Yeah, throws Chattanooga a bone.. but I've learned my lesson this Winter. Expecting a full 150 mile jog to the West by 0z.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on February 15, 2021, 01:10:46 PM
Euro actually gives parts of east TN a shot of heavy snow with the next storm, dropping 2-3 inches before it changes to sleet and then rain.  Lots of rain. Gonna be some flooded creeks if that happens around here.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 15, 2021, 01:19:53 PM
It's gonna be sleet. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on February 15, 2021, 01:22:55 PM
It's gonna be sleet. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Guess I better get my roto rooter ready for the gutters then!  ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 15, 2021, 01:27:09 PM
This is already shaping up to be a decent event, and it looks like it's going to come in 2 waves as well.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 15, 2021, 02:31:01 PM
This is already shaping up to be a decent event, and it looks like it's going to come in 2 waves as well.

Not enough model agreement imo, nam very warm GFS is overly bullish compared to euro. Leaning towards another northwest of 79 event
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 15, 2021, 02:42:17 PM
This is already shaping up to be a decent event, and it looks like it's going to come in 2 waves as well.

What are you looking at? Looks like it's going to turn to mush when it gets here.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 15, 2021, 02:46:43 PM
This second system will end up giving Nashville SIX FEET OF SNOW
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on February 15, 2021, 03:02:57 PM
This second system will end up giving Nashville SIX FEET OF SNOW

The sky is the limit for middle TN!
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 03:24:38 PM
this second system looks like same track as first one to me ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 15, 2021, 03:26:20 PM
Lzk already has winter storm warnings for its coverage area with second storm. They bypassed winter storm watches. ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 15, 2021, 03:27:37 PM
Well if it
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 15, 2021, 03:29:37 PM
this second system looks like same track as first one to me ::coffee::
I think here we will start out as sleet, and then it will quickly turn to a colder sleet and as we get later into the storm we will get the change to heavier sleet.  ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 15, 2021, 03:30:00 PM
Well if it
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 15, 2021, 03:32:57 PM
I think here we will start out as sleet, and then it will quickly turn to a colder sleet and as we get later into the storm we will get the change to heavier sleet.  ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

With a half inch of snow...don't forget that part.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 03:36:05 PM
Well if it
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 15, 2021, 03:40:39 PM
be careful what you wish for , lol

Trust me.  60-70 degrees warm rain will be welcome.  With some lighting and thunder.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on February 15, 2021, 04:04:09 PM
GFS seems to be following the Euro for now and giving parts of TN, including eastern areas, a quick shot of heavy snow before it changes to rain.

EDIT:  And showing middle TN some love on the backside. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 15, 2021, 04:20:59 PM
GFS seems to be following the Euro for now and giving parts of TN, including eastern areas, a quick shot of heavy snow before it changes to rain.

EDIT:  And showing middle TN some love on the backside.

lol gfs even showed 8 inches in southern middle, not biting
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bugalou on February 15, 2021, 04:22:58 PM
Snow on snow will be a rare treat.  I will savor every moment.  ::yum::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 15, 2021, 04:24:13 PM
Step on up addicts. One and all. Come get you another taste of Connecticut cocaine. 6-8" for the I-40 corridor.

I wouldn't lie to you, would I? Hehehehehe....
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 15, 2021, 04:24:34 PM
Trust me.  60-70 degrees warm rain will be welcome.  With some lighting and thunder.

I'm ready.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Michael on February 15, 2021, 04:25:06 PM
East Tn might get in on some action


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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 15, 2021, 04:26:35 PM
Step on up addicts. One and all. Come get you another taste of Connecticut cocaine. 6-8" for the I-40 corridor.

I wouldn't lie to you, would I? Hehehehehe....

I am taking a break from it until tomorrow evening! After this one today i am a bit disheartened but i will check in on it tomorrow night lol..I think temps will be to warm in my area. I think i will get some snow and then have to see it get washed away by rain, could be the final gut punch of the season for me LOL!!
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 04:30:11 PM
Step on up addicts. One and all. Come get you another taste of Connecticut cocaine. 6-8" for the I-40 corridor.

I wouldn't lie to you, would I? Hehehehehe....
yeah i feel this one, its going to happen
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 15, 2021, 04:48:52 PM
Step on up addicts. One and all. Come get you another taste of Connecticut cocaine. 6-8" for the I-40 corridor.

I wouldn't lie to you, would I? Hehehehehe....

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/b29fa234a8c6fda4146c1eda299ea72e/tenor.gif)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 15, 2021, 05:13:57 PM
(https://media1.tenor.com/images/b29fa234a8c6fda4146c1eda299ea72e/tenor.gif)

I
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bugalou on February 15, 2021, 05:17:24 PM
Step on up addicts. One and all. Come get you another taste of Connecticut cocaine. 6-8" for the I-40 corridor.

I wouldn't lie to you, would I? Hehehehehe....

(https://i.imgur.com/k71q1X1.jpg)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on February 15, 2021, 05:22:09 PM
I will take a cold rain in west TN TBH.  Fighting the cold with my pool and as each day ticks by my odds are dropping
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 15, 2021, 05:33:16 PM
Little Rock going with 6-10 in central Arkansas
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 15, 2021, 05:41:00 PM
I saw that they extended WSW until Thursday
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 15, 2021, 05:41:48 PM
I think this is over bearish, but we will find out soon
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bugalou on February 15, 2021, 05:42:56 PM
Little Rock going with 6-10 in central Arkansas

I saw that and was a little surprised.  Based on the models I would expect us to do better with the next system than little rock.  I guess that means put us down for 8-12.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bugalou on February 15, 2021, 05:44:22 PM
I think this is over bearish, but we will find out

A few models have trended south east with this over the past couple days.  If that is continues this may work out nicely for Memphis.  That said, I agree they look over done number wise.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 15, 2021, 05:48:15 PM
All my snow chips in on this system. Finally getting some snow with the first system and it makes it alot nicer looking here ready for that BIG DOG SNOW!!!! ::yum:: ::yum:: ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 15, 2021, 05:59:21 PM
OHX getting back up on that limb to make another forecast for this one...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/fPHX1VVrc33gc/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on February 15, 2021, 06:11:46 PM
Little Rock going with 6-10 in central Arkansas
It's Little Rock so go ahead and lock in another foot.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on February 15, 2021, 06:16:26 PM
All the forecasters have to go on are weather models that seem all over the place. I would need some extra strength Excedrin and plenty of "Calgon, take me away" to do their job.

Note to younger peeps, look up Calgon on YouTube and you'll get it.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 15, 2021, 06:27:07 PM
It's Little Rock so go ahead and lock in another foot.  ::shrug::

I can't like this post enough LOL
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 15, 2021, 06:29:35 PM
MEG has 3 to 7 in my forecast.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 15, 2021, 06:34:22 PM
I'm ready were gonna rack up this time!!! ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 15, 2021, 06:34:44 PM
Ok winter!  Here is the deal.  Give middle TN all snow 4-6
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 15, 2021, 06:42:39 PM
Ok winter!  You showed us the goods.  Now produce! 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 15, 2021, 06:48:22 PM
As if now....for Memphis anyways...

12Z GFS and PGFS- 7 inches
12Z CMC 5 inches and an inch of sleet
18Z EURO 6 inches
18Z NAM an inch of freezing rain
18Z NAM 3K 2-5 inches
18Z RDPS 4-6 inches
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 15, 2021, 06:49:27 PM
Ok winter!  You showed us the goods.  Now produce! 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 06:52:21 PM
As if now....for Memphis anyways...

12Z GFS and PGFS- 7 inches
12Z CMC 5 inches and an inch of sleet
18Z EURO 6 inches
18Z NAM an inch of freezing rain
18Z NAM 3K 2-5 inches
18Z RDPS 4-6 inches
pretty consistent
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 06:56:01 PM
don't do it matthew, don't try and reel me in LOL....if that low tracks 100 miles more to the south then thats a possiblity , but low tracks are to far north for that lately
slp track pretty much on same track
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matt on February 15, 2021, 06:59:41 PM
Gotta think the snow pack will assist in temps for this one. Hopefully it
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 15, 2021, 07:00:10 PM
Step on up addicts. One and all. Come get you another taste of Connecticut cocaine. 6-8" for the I-40 corridor.

I wouldn't lie to you, would I? Hehehehehe....
Not sure but my formula says double the QPF... 1.1" on 12z GFS and go 20:1.  That's 44"


Add in the 6" so far... Gets me to 50" and that's almost FIVE FEET DEEP!
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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 15, 2021, 07:09:20 PM
Ok winter!  You showed us the goods.  Now produce! 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 15, 2021, 07:12:24 PM


As if now....for Memphis anyways...

12Z GFS and PGFS- 7 inches
12Z CMC 5 inches and an inch of sleet
18Z EURO 6 inches
18Z NAM an inch of freezing rain
18Z NAM 3K 2-5 inches
18Z RDPS 4-6 inches

In other words, 17.7"


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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 15, 2021, 07:12:26 PM
I can't afford to buy a cent of it. I went all in for today's event and my hand lost. I'm out of money.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 15, 2021, 07:14:28 PM
MEG has 3 to 7 in my forecast.
Go big or go home, Dyer.  We cab do better than that!

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 15, 2021, 07:14:45 PM
Gotta think the snow pack will assist in temps for this one. Hopefully it
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 15, 2021, 07:15:26 PM
I'm going with the NAM.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 15, 2021, 07:20:08 PM
I'm going with the NAM.

as am I , UNLESS for some reason snowpack to our north and west plays a role, other than that i see you and i being 36 and cold rain, but i am not even checking on models again until tomorrow evening. my head is fogged from this one lol
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 15, 2021, 07:22:49 PM
I assume it will invest that data tonight. The storms are so close together, with a huge snowpack, I can
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matt on February 15, 2021, 07:26:00 PM
I assume it will invest that data tonight. The storms are so close together, with a huge snowpack, I can
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 15, 2021, 07:35:32 PM
Another thing to keep in mind is the frozen precip. amounts are mostly from the onset of the system, and that doesn't discount sleet from enhancing the totals. The true forecast as of now is a brief period of moderate to heavy frozen precip. followed by heavy rain as the low pushes NE. What we'd like is for it to push east of the Apps, but we'll see. Personally, I'll take the rain because it'll help melt the ice from today.
Title: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 15, 2021, 07:46:59 PM
As if now....for Memphis anyways...

12Z GFS and PGFS- 7 inches
12Z CMC 5 inches and an inch of sleet
18Z EURO 6 inches
18Z NAM an inch of freezing rain
18Z NAM 3K 2-5 inches
18Z RDPS 4-6 inches
18Euro control almost 6 inches. It * may* have figured out there
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 07:50:50 PM
I assume it will invest that data tonight. The storms are so close together, with a huge snowpack, I can
Title: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 15, 2021, 07:56:00 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210216/760937be612de9f894da845ce4b87bdf.jpg)
 Here
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 15, 2021, 07:57:47 PM
These 850s are really trying to hang on in the 0z HRRR for the Memphis metro. Shows some big snow potential... even across north MS but could have sleet too

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 07:58:17 PM
18Euro control almost 6 inches. It * may* have figured out there
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 15, 2021, 07:59:32 PM
These 850s are really trying to hang on in the 0z HRRR for the Memphis metro. Shows some big snow potential... even across north MS but could have sleet too

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers
Yep it has the heaviest snow band in northern MS.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 15, 2021, 08:01:03 PM
We had alot of sleet and some freezing rain today and topped it off with 1.25 inches of snow between 4:30 and 6. It came down fast, not very big flakes but it snowed hard. Now, let's get it on. Old man winter going to deliver the old 1-2 punch. Bring the punch old man winter!!!! Let's get it ON!!!! ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: Edit we got about 1.5 inches of sleet and 1.25 inches of snow all together!!!!
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 15, 2021, 08:03:59 PM
I'm not hating the look of the 0z HRRR and less than 48 hours out too.

Time to shake off the bad beat today and play the next hand.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 08:04:42 PM
sounds like MEG is... going pull the trigger later this evening on a winter storm watch...
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 15, 2021, 08:05:37 PM
We had alot of sleet and some freezing rain today and topped it off with 1.25 inches of snow between 4:30 and 6. It came down fast, not very big flakes but it snowed hard. Now, let's get it on. Old man winter going to deliver the old 1-2 punch. Bring the punch old man winter!!!! Let's get it ON!!!! ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: Edit we got about 1.5 inches of sleet and 1.25 inches of snow all together!!!!

Just took the dog out and we got more snow than I thought with that last thump...between that and the wind it really smoothed out the irregular sleet surface.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 08:10:25 PM
Just took the dog out and we got more snow than I thought with that last thump...between that and the wind it really smoothed out the irregular sleet surface.
when it snowed it didnt waste a single flake... with this last little good snow shower we got just  couple hours ago, i say we got 4 inches snow with total of 1 inch sleet to boot
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 15, 2021, 08:17:41 PM
when it snowed it didnt waste a single flake... with this last little good snow shower we got just  couple hours ago, i say we got 4 inches snow with total of 1 inch sleet to boot
It's one of those good snows where it's hard to find where yards end and streets begin. Also lost a sidewalk in there lol(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210216/2cc2a7d384a18150d2131778f4eb394c.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on February 15, 2021, 08:21:14 PM
It would take some tremendous WAA to overcome A) snow pack and B) already historically low temps. Can it happen? It
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 15, 2021, 08:21:41 PM
0z NAM already looks better than 18z at half way through the run. Still looks too warm somewhat but an improvement up to 48 hours

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 15, 2021, 08:25:39 PM
Nam not bad thus far in the run north of 40. started decent south of 40 then went to freezing rain.
And then rain by hr 54
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 15, 2021, 08:27:33 PM
As suspected the 12Z NAM figured out the snowcover. This would be another major winter storm for the exact same areas.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 15, 2021, 08:30:56 PM
NAM gives Memphis nearly 8" at 10:1 and over half an inch of freezing rain 

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 08:34:17 PM
I cash out gfs v16 now please ...
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 08:36:14 PM
As suspected the 12Z NAM figured out the snowcover. This would be another major winter storm for the exact same areas.
just hoping to do slightly better this Time . With precip type
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 15, 2021, 08:53:28 PM
MEG has posted WSW north of Clarksdale to Corinth.
Title: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 15, 2021, 09:04:06 PM
MEG has posted WSW north of Clarksdale to Corinth.
5-8 from  West Memphis to Paris, 2-4 Memphis and Jackson southeastward with an additional 0.20 in ice.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 15, 2021, 09:07:11 PM
All short range modeling looking good with this system in the 00z suites. Then the NAM did what the NAM does.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 15, 2021, 09:11:24 PM
5-8 from  West Memphis to Paris, 2-4 Memphis and Jackson southeastward with an additional 0.20 in ice.
that sure is a Sharp gradient to be not to far distance from each other  . West Memphis  just crosss River. Lol
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 15, 2021, 09:18:43 PM
Am I the only one who has a lot of sleet that is afraid cold rain would cause major issues with houses being flooded from ice dams?
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 15, 2021, 09:22:14 PM
0z WRF models are a little south of the Nam On the heavier snow band
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 15, 2021, 09:29:15 PM
I'm not hating the look of the 0z HRRR and less than 48 hours out too.

Time to shake off the bad beat today and play the next hand.
That's the spirit.  Don't go on tilt.  Let's get this storm and then maybe we can pull a coup and get the polar vort to park there for a while. 

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 15, 2021, 09:32:13 PM
As suspected the 12Z NAM figured out the snowcover. This would be another major winter storm for the exact same areas.
Well... man, if snow covet works that well.... We should be building snow guns everywhere until it becomes trendy

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 15, 2021, 09:33:40 PM
0z WRF models are a little south of the Nam On the heavier snow band
Yes, I see that... looks like a 7-8" swath between Little Rock to Memphis.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 15, 2021, 09:34:29 PM
MEG has posted WSW north of Clarksdale to Corinth.
Well, this is living now!  I'd like to see how we can just keep this pattern and bring it back every winter.  We've had enough time without a winter storm watch of warning. 

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 15, 2021, 09:54:24 PM
I hate to break this to all of you but I've unlocked all of the mysteries here.

First, I said, FIVE FEET DEEP

Then, @JKT1987 said last night that "it's either the final sign if the apocalypse or..."

Today, @JKT1987 said that KMEM (Memphis International Airport) reported 6.6 inches of snow and sleet for the storm total.

Do you not see?  It's obvious.

5 feet = 60 inches.

60 inches in top of 6.6 inches =

66.6 inches

The storm total for storm 2 is, in fact, 60 inches and it will happen in the city representing ancient Egypt..

The two storm total =66.6 inches.

Apocalypse now.  The Day After Tomorrow is ACTUALLY The Day After Tomorrow.

Mild Disclaimer:  If this actually comes true, don't blame me as I *thought* I was joking. Normally, I wouldn't be worried BUT, after 2020, practically anything could happen....but, surely, this will give me all-time internet forum champion!


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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 15, 2021, 10:02:50 PM
Am I the only one who has a lot of sleet that is afraid cold rain would cause major issues with houses being flooded from ice dams?

ICE DAMS??? This is not Michigan or Canada  ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 15, 2021, 10:19:32 PM
For this system, GFS and GFS16 have us battling surface and lower level temps. 850's are close but mostly hold for the northern half of middle and most of western. I know this will surprise exactly no one, but it's going to be close.  ::whistling::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 15, 2021, 10:28:03 PM
Y'all rich keep getting richer. Congrats West TN.

Wasn't it bugalou who used to do the graphic back in the day, when Tulsa got into a pattern of scoring for a few years?

(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/85266875.jpg)

 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 15, 2021, 10:35:07 PM
ICE DAMS??? This is not Michigan or Canada  ::rofl::

It is when the ice jams and blocks gutters. This is what happened in 2015 after the big sleet storm followed by a heavy rain event caused leaks in a lot of buildings and houses.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: vanster67 on February 15, 2021, 10:41:56 PM
hello all.  pretty much just freezing rain here this go a round in monterey.   curious if OHX will issue a WSWatch for my area for the next one coming.  Accuweather has me getting 6-10 inches wed eve thurs,  ha ha,, like to see that,  but dont know.  glad for the members that got snow got it,, hope you get more and nice if we saw some in the next day or so.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 15, 2021, 10:49:54 PM
Am I the only one who has a lot of sleet that is afraid cold rain would cause major issues with houses being flooded from ice dams?

I didnt think of that, good point... My gutters are sagging in some spots. Hopefully my roof is F'ed and I can get it replaced :)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bugalou on February 15, 2021, 10:55:46 PM
Y'all rich keep getting richer. Congrats West TN.

Wasn't it bugalou who used to do the graphic back in the day, when Tulsa got into a pattern of scoring for a few years?

(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/85266875.jpg)

haha yeah, that was me.

(https://i.imgur.com/1qNM1.png) (https://i.imgur.com/n3pj1.png) (https://i.imgur.com/TR2oe.png)



Now all that said we in the west haven't had it that good despite our recent good luck streak.  I have had less than an inch of snow for the past 3 winters, and just 2" the winter before that.   Not sure how t hings went while I was in NJ, but I did read that thread yesterday with the huge bust back in 2016 that was suppose to be a blizzard.  Eastern TN scored on that one.  We aren't as rich as you guys think over this way.  That said I will take whatever snow I can get and I am not sharing. It;s dog eat dog in TN w hen it comes to snow, but all ya'll know that already.  ;D
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bugalou on February 15, 2021, 10:57:49 PM
Can't forget about these either...

(https://i.imgur.com/suRiz.png)  (https://i.imgur.com/G8VbE.png) (https://i.imgur.com/HetMb.png)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 15, 2021, 10:59:32 PM
Can't forget about these either...

(https://i.imgur.com/suRiz.png)  (https://i.imgur.com/G8VbE.png) (https://i.imgur.com/HetMb.png)

Glad you held onto those! Classic.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 15, 2021, 11:37:00 PM
0z GEFS is looking solid. I will say, I am definitely not buying in yet. It was in this timeframe with this last system that the SE trend started only to drastically reverse course 24 hours before the event.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 15, 2021, 11:48:58 PM
 Snowing again here, coming down pretty good at the moment. It's been snowing pretty good for about 30 minutes with nothing on the radar much at all. ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 16, 2021, 12:11:24 AM
euro comes south. Where have we seen a southern trend in this time frame before.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 16, 2021, 12:41:02 AM
Do not look at euro.  Repeat do not look at Euro. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Heath22 on February 16, 2021, 12:44:45 AM
Do not look at euro.  Repeat do not look at Euro.

Don't know how. Please tell.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 16, 2021, 02:15:32 AM
No no no TWC.  I
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 02:25:01 AM
No no no TWC.  I
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 06:35:54 AM
2 for the low at KMEM...officially the coldest temp since for Memphis since December 1989. Ranging -2 to 2 in the metro this morning....
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 06:57:19 AM
Now down to 1 at KMEM for 13z
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 07:01:29 AM
Officially 1 here now 7 clock report at airport
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 07:02:34 AM
MEG this morning(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210216/7a4e04b423e36dfdc596e70095fa7787.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 07:03:33 AM
@NWSMemphis
The ASOS at West Memphis, AR dropped to -4
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Woodvegas on February 16, 2021, 07:06:31 AM
2/16 6Z Euro is significantly colder than the 6Z GFS for MBY for the upcoming event. Either way I'm living on the edge between cold rain and snow.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 16, 2021, 07:16:27 AM
2/16 6Z Euro is significantly colder than the 6Z GFS for MBY for the upcoming event. Either way I'm living on the edge between cold rain and snow.

(http://memecrunch.com/meme/BFVER/that-s-just-how-we-roll/image.gif)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 16, 2021, 07:35:27 AM
MEG this morning(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210216/7a4e04b423e36dfdc596e70095fa7787.jpg)

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This looks similar to what we have currently.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 07:45:27 AM
Who knows if it
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 07:45:56 AM
From the WPC:

By late Tuesday as the upper shortwave begins to move east of the Rockies, precipitation is forecast to develop out across northern
Texas and Oklahoma before expanding farther north and east during the overnight hours.  Guidance is showing a period of mid-to-upper
level forcing along with low level theta-e advection sufficient for light to moderate snows spreading from the eastern Texas Panhandle to Arkansas and southern Missouri Tuesday night.  Latest PWPF shows high probabilities for snow accumulations of 4-inches or more extending across much of central and eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas by Wednesday afternoon.

Impacts downstream have become less certain, with the general consensus of the overnight guidance showing less amplification
with the upper trough as it moves across northern Texas and Oklahoma Wednesday night.  A notable exception is the NAM, which
remains more amplified, drawing more moisture into the colder air and developing heavy snows out across Arkansas into western Tennessee and lower Ohio valley.  Following the trends of the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF, WPC leaned away from the NAM solution.  While the potential for heavy snow appears to be decreasing, there remains a strong signal for significant icing from eastern Texas to northern Mississippi, with accumulations of 0.25-inch or more likely across portions of the region.

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 16, 2021, 07:46:03 AM
Who knows if it
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 16, 2021, 07:49:47 AM
MEG going all in for another round with 4-6
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 07:53:11 AM
MEG going all in for another round with 4-6
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 07:54:09 AM
latest short range hi res starting to really look good,  i have had enough lol
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 16, 2021, 08:00:06 AM
12z HRRR was very nice for most of us
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 08:01:19 AM
MEG going all in for another round with 4-6
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 08:04:38 AM
heaviest bands look be coming out of southeast ark, spreading east shelby  county then east from there
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 08:05:05 AM
Who knows if it
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 08:05:40 AM
along i 40 corridor 2- 4 be safe start
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 08:07:27 AM
12z HRRR was very nice for most of us
hear it was coming in hot n amped lol
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 16, 2021, 08:08:10 AM
12z HRRR

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021021612/048/snodpc_acc.us_ov.png)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 08:18:00 AM
These numbers on short-term could go up on each successive run today. 

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 16, 2021, 08:21:04 AM
It
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 08:23:31 AM
Just keep in mind the HRRR was overly aggressive on both QPF and SLRs with the event yesterday locally...so it's probably biasing high on snow amounts.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 08:27:28 AM
Just keep in mind the HRRR was overly aggressive on both QPF and SLRs with the event yesterday locally...so it's probably biasing high on snow amounts.
you can have mine kevin had enough here ha, still trying shovel get up the driveway
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 08:28:39 AM
i am not buying anything yet, but wouldn't it be just like tennessee to not get anything hardly snow-wise from the system i expected and then get it on the system i payed little attention to LOL
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 08:34:21 AM
Just keep in mind the HRRR was overly aggressive on both QPF and SLRs with the event yesterday locally...so it's probably biasing high on snow amounts.
Memphis ended up with about .70 in QPF yesterday...and while 5-6 inches is great, sleet ate up totals.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 08:36:43 AM
No agreement. The 3k NAM is amped up.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 08:41:55 AM
Memphis ended up with about .70 in QPF yesterday...and while 5-6 inches is great, sleet ate up totals.
agree, models wreg ran this morning showed less sleet this time more snow for shelby county, sleety more towards ne ms and tn river counties west tn
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 08:51:19 AM
No agreement. The 3k NAM is amped up.
Is amped good news or is the run garbage?

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 08:55:15 AM
Is amped good news or is the run garbage?

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Good news for I40 and north. About everyone  gets snow but south of 40 turns to rain.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mmryan on February 16, 2021, 08:57:09 AM
(http://memecrunch.com/meme/BFVER/that-s-just-how-we-roll/image.gif)

I feel like the on the line lot of us need to form a bitter tears club. I hate the dang line. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 09:04:01 AM
Good news for I40 and north. About everyone  gets snow but south of 40 turns to rain.

IDK what models the local mets use for their displays on their forecasts for TV, but most show me in snow zone the entire event...again idk what to believe lol. Oh well after this last round i will just not take anything at face value again....
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 16, 2021, 09:08:49 AM
12z HRRR gives the Chattanooga area some love, and they need some love.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 09:32:38 AM
well decent agreement on euro gfsv16 and HRRR for mid state....what could go wrong lol...the NAM
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 09:40:12 AM
RGEM has 3 waves less amped:

#1 dying out in Arkansas and into west TN tonight. Leigh
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 16, 2021, 09:48:18 AM
12z GFS amped up big time.  Rain for most.  Ice for some.  Snow for a few.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 09:49:11 AM
RGEM has 3 waves less amped:

#1 dying out in Arkansas and into west TN tonight. Leigh
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on February 16, 2021, 09:49:48 AM
I bet we'll accrete some ice with STs in the 33F range considering ground temps.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 09:51:09 AM
somone going get hammered if the 12zgfs is correct, ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 09:52:53 AM
I know some of you like the ICON on Tidbits, Weather.us has it with precip type so it gives you a better picture of whats snow and what isnt. However the Total Snowfall (true slr) on Tidbits seems to match the snowfall map produced by Weather.us. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 09:54:55 AM
0 degrees here this morning, to close plain rain for some within 36 hrs. willing bet thats some heavy sleet or even ice somewhere along the i 40 corrido, with band of heavy snow north there, seems gfs may be struggling with the overall thermals
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 16, 2021, 10:01:01 AM
Guidance was below high temps all week, we still have a frigid air mass and snowpack and some blocking. I just don't see this air flying out of here, it could but I seen them forecast sunday highs. Mine is 45, and I would be willing to bet that is going to be a hard struggle. Let's reel this one home and everyone gets some winter weather. ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 10:03:10 AM
Guidance was below high temps all week, we still have a frigid air mass and snowpack and some blocking. I just don't see this air flying out of here, it could but I seen them forecast sunday highs. Mine is 45, and I would be willing to bet that is going to be a hard struggle. Let's reel this one home and everyone gets some winter weather. ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman::
im sitting at 5 degrees now, better hope that isnt rain, this air mass isnt going to recover that quickly
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 10:09:52 AM
im sitting at 5 degrees now, better hope that isnt rain, this air mass isnt going to recover that quickly

agreed, i am at 9 right now....bitter out there
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 10:50:51 AM
have a feeling ohx is going to take their time on this one and go with winter weather advisory and then upgrade as needed
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 11:00:41 AM
12z Ukie looks a lot like the 06z Euro someone posted.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: David on February 16, 2021, 11:25:12 AM
News 2 is holding everything as snow
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 11:27:34 AM
News 2 is holding everything as snow

i noticed that as well, the model kept most all of us at snow, kind of in line with some other models as well....i don't wanna jump on the ship and get busted again though lol
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Cyrgeetar on February 16, 2021, 11:28:18 AM
I apologize for not diving into the data before I ask this, but I need a reasonable answer soon. What is the rough window of time precipitation will start tomorrow? Trying to make decision to open or diminish hours tomorrow. Thanks
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: David on February 16, 2021, 11:29:18 AM
i noticed that as well, the model kept most all of us at snow, kind of in line with some other models as well....i don't wanna jump on the ship and get busted again though lol

Oh I wouldn't just surprised they are not sticking with the NWS
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 11:29:59 AM
i noticed that as well, the model kept most all of us at snow, kind of in line with some other models as well....i don't wanna jump on the ship and get busted again though lol

it kind of reminds me a BIT of the 2010 storm system where i-40 south got hammered, not saying it will be on that level at all but it looks more of an east to west swath as opposed to s/w to northeast
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 11:31:09 AM
Oh I wouldn't just surprised they are not sticking with the NWS

well NOBODY got yesterdays forecast correct as far as snow went, NWS busted big time too so who knows who to put our confidence in lol
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: HendersonvilleWx on February 16, 2021, 11:31:29 AM
I apologize for not diving into the data before I ask this, but I need a reasonable answer soon. What is the rough window of time precipitation will start tomorrow? Trying to make decision to open or diminish hours tomorrow. Thanks

From what I could tell, it looked like after 4 p.m. Wednesday.  Someone please feel free to more accurately update the situation.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 11:34:52 AM
There is a big difference so far in short term models and global models. It will be interesting to see which way this goes.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 11:42:23 AM
12z NWS model blend shows the snow line from basically Florence, AL to Cookeville, TN as 1-2", BNA 4", MEM 5".

East of Cookeville, Plateau gets 1-2", Chatty basically zero and Knoxville 1".
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 11:47:05 AM
12z NWS model blend shows the snow line from basically Florence, AL to Cookeville, TN as 1-2", BNA 4", MEM 5".

East of Cookeville, Plateau gets 1-2", Chatty basically zero and Knoxville 1".

gosh poor chatty, they get shafted even more than I do lol, but sometimes they get a whopper!
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 16, 2021, 11:52:15 AM
12z NWS model blend shows the snow line from basically Florence, AL to Cookeville, TN as 1-2", BNA 4", MEM 5".

East of Cookeville, Plateau gets 1-2", Chatty basically zero and Knoxville 1".
How has the nws blend model been performing? I saw it when it came out but haven
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 16, 2021, 11:53:55 AM
I apologize for not diving into the data before I ask this, but I need a reasonable answer soon. What is the rough window of time precipitation will start tomorrow? Trying to make decision to open or diminish hours tomorrow. Thanks

Your profile doesn't have your location, and Tennessee is a big state west to east, so it depends on your location. :)

For the mid-state, it appears this starts moving in mid to late afternoon. Depending on where you are... earlier further west and later further east.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 11:55:38 AM
15Z SREF be like I will AMP you however I want to. My gosh, we are almost on top of this event. Last of the mid day runs are about to be done
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 11:57:39 AM
How has the nws blend model been performing? I saw it when it came out but haven
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Cyrgeetar on February 16, 2021, 12:00:36 PM
Your profile doesn't have your location, and Tennessee is a big state west to east, so it depends on your location. :)

For the mid-state, it appears this starts moving in mid to late afternoon. Depending on where you are... earlier further west and later further east.

Gaw... you
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 12:06:05 PM
12Z euro way drier than previous. 1-2 for memphis and Nashville, maybe 3 for the plateau.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 12:08:01 PM
15Z SREF be like I will AMP you however I want to. My gosh, we are almost on top of this event. Last of the mid day runs are about to be done

Summary?
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 12:10:01 PM
look at the euro giving i-40 south a nice 3-4 inch swath :)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 12:11:01 PM
12Z euro way drier than previous. 1-2 for memphis and Nashville, maybe 3 for the plateau.

Keeps sliding east bit by bit...wonder if it corrects NW at the last minute like we saw yesterday.

BNA has 0.25" of QPF for the whole show. And a lot of that is lightly spread out over 12 hours.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 12:11:36 PM
Strangely, looks like MEG has gone with a warning for NW Arkansas and the MO bootheel but leaves a watch in place for the rest of us. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 12:13:19 PM
Warning for Blytheville but no warning for West Memphis, Dyersburg, or Union City. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on February 16, 2021, 12:13:38 PM
it kind of reminds me a BIT of the 2010 storm system where i-40 south got hammered, not saying it will be on that level at all but it looks more of an east to west swath as opposed to s/w to northeast

I think we are at least going to have a chance down this way. Curious as well about that NWS blend model because the Euro, UK, HRRR, and RAP among other have a solid south of I-40 thump of snow.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 12:15:18 PM
SREF for BNA is 1.5" QPF vs 0.25" on the Euro...and we are like 2 days away from the event. Goodness.  ::bagoverhead::

SREF is mostly rain for BNA.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 12:15:33 PM
I think we are at least going to have a chance down this way. Curious as well about that NWS blend model because the Euro, UK, HRRR, and RAP among other have a solid south of I-40 thump of snow.

Agreed, who knows but chances are there i could see 412 corridor getting in the act with 3-4 inches , on this one ....but then again it could bust again LOL

Also nws now has my forecast for all snow wed and wed evening, with a small window of mix on thursday and then snow again
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 12:21:00 PM
If anyone doubts that we need more snow or that we should have snow all the time in the winter, I challenge them to look outside today.  It's stunning and brilliant out there as compared to the greys and browns. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Fletcher on February 16, 2021, 12:27:03 PM
The 15z Rap is ridiculous...got my fingers crossed for that scenario.  It's also still snowing on the last frame.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 16, 2021, 12:48:33 PM
With this last event the RAP did well with the snow/sleet/freezing rain placement but did horrible on the amounts. Way too much QPF
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Beth on February 16, 2021, 12:53:09 PM
Snow is wonderful when you sit in your house and watch it and can relax.  But add 5-16 year old kids in the mix, it can sure wear you out!  If you have youngsters then you know what I am talking about.  And when it is 10 degrees out the younger ones do not understand the theory of frostbite and hypothermia!  So yes,  Snow has it
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 01:02:50 PM
While I agree.... I have 4 kids myself, I often find myself appalled by how little independence they have.  I think we've done it to ourselves as our parents just let us play outside all day in the snow (or not) and didn't worry so much.  I don't know where all this comes from but I often feel that I'm not doing enough to combat this spirit of both entitlement and dependence.

That said, we should be building memories with them with all this snow. When I was a kid, for instance, I was able to put all my stuff on and take it off by the door and then put it back on again.  It shocks me that our kids need so much help getting dressed.  I feel like a terrible parent for this, in a way.

In any case, I think we should be building this in our kids but we're all so busy all the time that I think we just help them every time instead of taking on the battle of teaching them and letting them learn things for themselves.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 01:20:20 PM
With this last event the RAP did well with the snow/sleet/freezing rain placement but did horrible on the amounts. Way too much QPF

As long as it is mostly snow i am ok with a bit less qpf a nice 3-5 swath and i will be happy
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Woodvegas on February 16, 2021, 01:24:48 PM
So the 2/16 12Z GFS gives MBY mostly rain and the Euro gives me mostly snow for this event. Lack of model consensus is somewhat frustrating.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 01:30:24 PM
See were meg re issued watch for my area . Was 2 to 4  now they going 1 to 6 inches .  That
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on February 16, 2021, 01:37:50 PM
The 15z Rap is ridiculous...got my fingers crossed for that scenario.  It's also still snowing on the last frame.

But it went poof with the 16-18z runs

Now the RAP and HRRR are almost mirror images giving AR the big show and TN the shaft
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 01:38:42 PM
HRR continues to look good and nothing like globals. Let see where NAM goes.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 01:39:14 PM
See were meg re issued watch for my area . Was 2 to 4  now they going 1 to 6 inches .  That
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 01:40:47 PM
HRR continues to look good and nothing like globals. Let see where NAM goes.

(Attachment Link)

thats the CLASSIC tn snow look, HRRR didn't do to bad with the last storm as we got closer to it, hopefully it is correct, also as far as globals, the euro looked good as well to me
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 01:43:18 PM
HRR continues to look good and nothing like globals. Let see where NAM goes.

(Attachment Link)
2 camps- models that think the dry air can be overcome over the snow cover, and others that see it as an impedance. Answer is probably in the middle.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 01:43:58 PM
HRR continues to look good and nothing like globals. Let see where NAM goes.

(Attachment Link)

Looks like a storm that will have trouble fighting dry air
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 01:45:42 PM
2 camps- models that think the dry air can be overcome over the snow cover, and others that see it as an impedance. Answer is probably in the middle.
FWIW, I saw where OK stations cut back their forecasted accumulations because of dry air a couple of hours ago

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on February 16, 2021, 01:47:16 PM
Looks like a storm that will have trouble fighting dry air

HRRR does not do well with dry air.  It struggled hard on several events this winter.   
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 01:52:01 PM
HRR also continues to have secondary disturbance. I agree that this could be a lot of virga unless the amped version happens.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 16, 2021, 01:52:35 PM
Looking at the 18z HRRR skews for MBY, the profile gets saturated two hours after light precip arrives but we'll before the deepest QPF. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 01:57:15 PM
Looks like a storm that will have trouble fighting dry air

thats why i am glad i am south of 40 :)....but that could lead to potential mix also lol
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 01:57:28 PM
Still snowing at end of run.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 02:01:26 PM
thats why i am glad i am south of 40 :)....but that could lead to potential mix also lol

Snow in this area is a Catch-22.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 02:05:17 PM
Still snowing at end of run.

(Attachment Link)
What would our realistic ratios be for this event

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 02:06:18 PM
What would our realistic ratios be for this event

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Just a guess- 8" SN : 1" QPF early, then 15:1 late
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 16, 2021, 02:06:52 PM
Still snowing at end of run.

(Attachment Link)

Not falling for it.  Winter this is ready
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 02:08:30 PM
Not falling for it.  Winter this is ready
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 02:10:44 PM
Not falling for it.  Winter this is ready
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter on February 16, 2021, 02:18:02 PM
;D I'll be ready to stick my middle finger elsewhere if I'm wrong about this next one being a bust, too.

(Don't worry, no pictures will be involved, and I mean that figuratively)

Alright, I'm done. This is a family-friendly website.

Except for Drifter's avatar.

 :)
I've had that bad boy probably 8 years or so. On the storm note, looks like I'm too far north now. Went from an impactful winter storm to 1-2 inches possible lol

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 02:20:26 PM
My Davis is registering 27 degrees. We got much warmer than forecasted. Fine by me the snow is melting quite nicely.
That
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: vanster67 on February 16, 2021, 02:23:00 PM
forecast high today is 18...   it has not risen above 11 degrees here in monterey..  light snow still falling
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 02:24:37 PM
That
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 16, 2021, 02:25:36 PM
That
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: cbrentv318 on February 16, 2021, 02:26:05 PM
15 in Christiana.  It did get up to 19 at one point.   


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 02:26:13 PM
WSW for carolinas now
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 02:26:45 PM
also jackson tn is currently showing around 14, so i don't see how humbolt is at 27?
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 16, 2021, 02:27:03 PM
We've maxed out at 19 here with a good bit of sunshine this afternoon. Still solid ice out.
Title: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 02:28:29 PM
NAM might be finally slightly catching on to the dry air scenario over west tn but nowhere near the degree the euro did. It just overpowers the HP with precip. It
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 02:31:24 PM
My Davis is registering 27 degrees. We got much warmer than forecasted. Fine by me the snow is melting quite nicely.

You're at 27 in Humboldt?! Wow. I'm ten degrees colder than you are, and I'm east of you. I don't have a home weather station though, I'm just going by the data posted in Fairview.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 02:37:11 PM
also jackson tn is currently showing around 14, so i don't see how humbolt is at 27?
seems little warm there . Still teens here
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 02:38:12 PM
My Davis is registering 27 degrees. We got much warmer than forecasted. Fine by me the snow is melting quite nicely.
Humboldt must have one heck of a UHI
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210216/959d4dded9458303abcdab48f36c52e9.jpg)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 16, 2021, 02:41:14 PM
I am at 15, I seen that humbolt reading on wunderground as well but nothing was as close to that high anywhere surrounding it. I wondered if that was correct. There is one station in montgomery county that had a 20 degree reading but everything else around it is anywhere from 15-18. I live just west of clarksville and have 15. The forecast high is 20, it will be lucky to reach it I think. ::popcorn::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 02:42:15 PM
My Davis is registering 27 degrees. We got much warmer than forecasted. Fine by me the snow is melting quite nicely.

Yeah, might want to make sure your station is working properly.

Better not be falsifying information. We don't do that here.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ryandourius on February 16, 2021, 02:50:07 PM
I replaced the battery in it. The solar part had some ice on it. Now it's reading 22. What is the warranty on these? I guess I will shoot them an email.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 16, 2021, 02:54:32 PM
Winter storm watch issued here
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mmryan on February 16, 2021, 02:57:47 PM
We hit 25.5 briefly in Smyrna when the sun broke through the clouds more but quickly dropped back to 22.3 after it went back behind them. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on February 16, 2021, 02:58:13 PM
I replaced the battery in it. The solar part had some ice on it. Now it's reading 22. What is the warranty on these? I guess I will shoot them an email.

You don
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 02:58:49 PM
We hit 25.5 briefly in Smyrna when the sun broke through the clouds more but quickly dropped back to 22.3 after it went back behind them.

gosh! i hit around 18 here imby
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ryandourius on February 16, 2021, 03:01:40 PM
You don
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on February 16, 2021, 03:11:18 PM
They get fairly warm, even this time of year. That could be the problem.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 03:12:08 PM
how bout the nam exploding the totals for mid state lol
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Brad on February 16, 2021, 03:14:47 PM
how bout the nam exploding the totals for mid state lol

I noticed that. Lays down 6" from the 9PM to midnight timeframe in the midstate. Maybe a tad touchy on the qpf pedal!
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ryandourius on February 16, 2021, 03:16:20 PM
This needs this move East and you all can have the snow. I really am done now for winter. It had its last hooray for me I hope.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 03:17:07 PM
I noticed that. Lays down 6" from the 9PM to midnight timeframe in the midstate. Maybe a tad touchy on the qpf pedal!

Divide it in half and its still good enough for me :)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 03:18:44 PM
The RGEM seems to be catching on to the dry air. Still is about 2 to 3 statewide.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 03:22:58 PM
I replaced the battery in it. The solar part had some ice on it. Now it's reading 22. What is the warranty on these? I guess I will shoot them an email.

That sounds better. You had me spooked for a second, bro.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ryandourius on February 16, 2021, 03:24:33 PM
That sounds better. You had me spooked for a second, bro.

Sorry. I am going to anchor it somewhere else and see if that helps any. Have any of you all tried the Weather Flow Tempest?
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 03:28:05 PM
Sorry. I am going to anchor it somewhere else and see if that helps any. Have any of you all tried the Weather Flow Tempest?

Apologize if I accused you of making up numbers- but in this day and age, you never know who is just making things up, so that's my excuse
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ryandourius on February 16, 2021, 03:32:58 PM
Channel 7 in Jackson just released their map for the upcoming event. I hope it is wrong.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 03:34:48 PM
I forsee dry air being a big problem with this system. Not sure if these high accum forecasts or models will work out
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on February 16, 2021, 03:40:19 PM
It's still snowing here in Mount Juliet.  This is pretty nice!  Just flurries but every now and then it picks up!
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on February 16, 2021, 03:48:47 PM
18z GFS is trying to keep BNA all wintry precip..mostly snow.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on February 16, 2021, 03:51:09 PM
I forsee dry air being a big problem with this system. Not sure if these high accum forecasts or models will work out
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Fletcher on February 16, 2021, 03:52:39 PM
But it went poof with the 16-18z runs

Now the RAP and HRRR are almost mirror images giving AR the big show and TN the shaft

Those runs don't go out as far, it didnt even start yet on them :)
Title: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 03:53:49 PM
The RGEM seems to be catching on to the dry air. Still is about 2 to 3 statewide.
RGEM looks to have landed at the same spot several times now. Some really hefty totals into central Arkansas  and then it starts hitting the dry air. Kinda reminds me of the February
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 16, 2021, 03:55:16 PM
Apologize if I accused you of making up numbers- but in this day and age, you never know who is just making things up, so that's my excuse

And honestly, it's been an issue before.  Certainly  not insinuating anything in this case. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 16, 2021, 03:55:57 PM
It is snowing here in woodlawn, nice sized flakes light but steady. It has snowed off and on all day but this was the prettiest flakes of the day. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on February 16, 2021, 03:58:48 PM
Winter Storm Warning now for West TN


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
333 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

...Another significant winter storm will affect the Mid-South
late tonight through Thursday...

.Another significant winter storm will begin to affect the Mid-
South as early as late tonight with snow across Northeast Arkansas
and the Missouri Bootheel. Significant snow, sleet, and freezing
rain accumulations will spread across most of the Mid-South
Wednesday and Thursday. Any accumulations on top of the snow and
sleet already on the ground will exacerbate travel problems across
the Mid-South.

ARZ036-048-049-TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-170545-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0003.210217T0600Z-210219T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KMEG.WS.W.0002.210217T0600Z-210219T0000Z/
Crittenden-St. Francis-Lee-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Dyer-Gibson-
Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-Shelby-
Including the cities of West Memphis, Marion, Forrest City,
Marianna, Brickeys, Tiptonville, Cottonwood Grove, Ridgely,
Union City, Clayton, Martin, Dresden, Latham, Bradleytown,
Dyersburg, Millsfield, Unionville, Heloise, Humboldt, Milan,
Trenton, Dyer, Edith, Ripley, Halls, Covington, Munford, Atoka,
Dixonville, Belle Eagle, Brownsville, Nutbush, Hillville, Alamo,
Bells, Chestnut Bluff, Maury City, Friendship, Downtown Memphis,
Frayser, and Southwest Memphis
333 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of western Tennessee and eastern Arkansas.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep extra blankets, food, water, and a
flashlight in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 03:58:55 PM
I forsee dry air being a big problem with this system. Not sure if these high accum forecasts or models will work out
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 16, 2021, 04:02:11 PM
And honestly, it's been an issue before.  Certainly  not insinuating anything in this case.
In this case he wasn't I seen it on wunderground and was thinking to myself that doesn't look right at all. Actually when I seen it showed 26, still thought that looked odd. About 10 minutes later the guy from Humbolt said their temp was showing 27. It was weird. ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 04:06:37 PM
In this case he wasn't I seen it on wunderground and was thinking to myself that doesn't look right at all. Actually when I seen it showed 26, still thought that looked odd. About 10 minutes later the guy from Humbolt said their temp was showing 27. It was weird. ::rofl::
im 10 miles from humbolt tn promsie you it was not 27 there today lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 04:10:40 PM
just my opinion, i feel the mix line is way to far north and west on this prelim forecast from nws....i would think it seems more like loretto towards putnam county as the area for more mixing to the .1 to .2 inch level of ice...with this one i don't see it as far west as they have it right now, but as always subject to change lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ryandourius on February 16, 2021, 04:28:39 PM
just my opinion, i feel the mix line is way to far north and west on this prelim forecast from nws....i would think it seems more like loretto towards putnam county as the area for more mixing to the .1 to .2 inch level of ice...with this one i don't see it as far west as they have it right now, but as always subject to change lol


MEG seems to think the best ice threat will be more significant further south into Mississippi. They maintain a corridor of 6-8 inches along and North of 40. I hope it is wrong. It is a trade off though. You can either have lots of icing or lots of snow or a mixture of both.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 04:30:46 PM
Seems like Arkansas would have more dry air issues than we would.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on February 16, 2021, 04:32:24 PM
Seems like Arkansas would have more dry air issues than we would.

Yeah can ya'll explain this to me?  I'm confused by the overcoming dry air part as it is still lightly snowing here as we speak.  Is the atmosphere going to dry up that much in the next 24 hours?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on February 16, 2021, 04:33:25 PM
If dry air is an issue, I think there
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: David on February 16, 2021, 04:33:39 PM
I am not buying we are going to go above freezing tomorrow. That's just a hunch though.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on February 16, 2021, 04:41:18 PM
I am not buying we are going to go above freezing tomorrow. That's just a hunch though.
If models are projecting snow as the melting form of precip rather than sleet, they will be dead wrong.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Fletcher on February 16, 2021, 04:42:43 PM
21z extended Rap is even more crazy than the 15z...sign me up plz..
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 04:44:26 PM
I am feeling this as similar to 2010 Jan storm i just am y'all, maybe not to the same degree of heavy snow though, that storm as well ended up with dry air on the far north towards KY border and snow axis was heavier from I-40 south.

I think 412 corridor does well with 3-4 inches common from linden to east of columbia...will there be mixing, i am sure from time to time, but not prolonged periods imo
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 04:48:31 PM
If dry air is an issue, I think there
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 05:03:06 PM
If dry air is an issue, I think there
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 05:13:36 PM
Could be seeing a virga storm at the onset, until the columns moisten up...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on February 16, 2021, 05:23:04 PM
(https://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image16.png?2bc267bbb62de8aa5a7a40b426d2b53e)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on February 16, 2021, 05:23:33 PM
January 2000- another real possibility here

Here we go

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2000/us0128.php#picture
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: dave on February 16, 2021, 05:46:55 PM
Here we go

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2000/us0128.php#picture

MUNDIE!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 05:48:58 PM
Nobody brings up 1/28/00 here. Trauma inducing. Almost as bad as the " "blizzard" "

The lack of agreement in the models this late is unsettling. Between the uncertainty in dry air/ptypes/ratios/vorticity...the range of outcomes only runs from about 1" to 8"....Gotta love it! This is happening in 12-18 hours for west sections lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 05:52:13 PM
Here we go

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2000/us0128.php#picture
Yes remember all too well. Little Rock got 8-12 while it took 12 hours for the snow to hit Memphis. It did snow several inches - and at marginal temps too. But painful nonetheless. I will say I remember accumulation modeling a day or so before showing the weird swoop from Jonesboro down to Memphis - thinking that will never happen. This doesn
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Andy on February 16, 2021, 05:52:48 PM
Has anyone else had snow showers throughout the day ? We
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 05:54:19 PM
Yes remember all too well. Little Rock got 8-12 while it took 12 hours for the snow to hit Memphis. It did snow several inches - and at marginal temps too. But painful nonetheless. I will say I remember accumulation modeling a day or so before showing the weird swoop from Jonesboro down to Memphis - thinking that will never happen. This doesn
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 05:56:20 PM
This was the WSW text the afternoon before...

Quote
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT MID-SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
.LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF TEXAS TODAY HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE
INTO THE MID-SOUTH. COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
THE MID-SOUTH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SINCE
AT LEAST 1988 IN MANY AREAS. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

ARZ026>028-035-036-MSZ003>006-009-TNZ049-088>091-280000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-
MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-PRENTISS-SHELBY-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-

...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED AREAS MAY
SEE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AFTER THE SNOW
BEGINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

Even threw in the '88 reference....whooops
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 06:00:12 PM
(https://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image16.png?2bc267bbb62de8aa5a7a40b426d2b53e)

that makes sense as an early call...however i still believe they have the ice forecast way to far north and west, i just don't see west of 65 getting any more than .05 at most unless you are near loretto area imo, also not sure the heavier moisture reaches the KY border either, oh the fun of forecasting lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 06:00:28 PM
Has anyone else had snow showers throughout the day ? We
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 06:01:58 PM
(https://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image16.png?2bc267bbb62de8aa5a7a40b426d2b53e)

Wow, they even put in some extra effort to edit the one they posted 3 hours ago.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: David on February 16, 2021, 06:05:49 PM
Wow, they even put in some extra effort to edit the one they posted 3 hours ago.

I am sure it will be edited again
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on February 16, 2021, 06:07:38 PM
Since this is looking like the fifth near miss for the southern valley this winter, I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: InMemphis on February 16, 2021, 06:09:41 PM
I remember the 2000 event all too well. I was starting to doubt we'd see anything. I remember the warning was downgraded to an advisory by around 10.

It seemed like everyone in town that week was talking about 1988. I heard stories from teachers at school all the way to the cashier at Seesel's. That was a disappointing night to say the least.

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 06:15:29 PM
Yes remember all too well. Little Rock got 8-12 while it took 12 hours for the snow to hit Memphis. It did snow several inches - and at marginal temps too. But painful nonetheless. I will say I remember accumulation modeling a day or so before showing the weird swoop from Jonesboro down to Memphis - thinking that will never happen. This doesn
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 06:17:15 PM
Also...crazy to think now...back during that 2000 storm and until about 2004...MEG's WSW criteria was 5", and the advisory criteria was 3" (LOL). So Memphis could get 2-3" and that was basically an SPS event.

That's changed these days...

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wso/snowfall_criteria_12hr.gif)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matt on February 16, 2021, 06:23:00 PM
Also...crazy to think now...back during that 2000 storm and until about 2004...MEG's WSW criteria was 5", and the advisory criteria was 3" (LOL). So Memphis could get 2-3" and that was basically an SPS event.

That's changed these days...

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wso/snowfall_criteria_12hr.gif)

I feel like Michigan is an outlier. Snow there isn
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 06:25:41 PM
I feel like Michigan is an outlier. Snow there isn
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 06:26:49 PM
Also...crazy to think now...back during that 2000 storm and until about 2004...MEG's WSW criteria was 5", and the advisory criteria was 3" (LOL). So Memphis could get 2-3" and that was basically an SPS event.

That's changed these days...

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wso/snowfall_criteria_12hr.gif)
Really the most consistent part of MEG since 2000, with the exception of maybe 2 years, is Jim Belles I didn't know that about the warning criteria

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 06:29:15 PM
It was Little Rocks first measurable snow in 3 years too

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They
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 06:31:02 PM
Really the most consistent part of MEG since 2000, with the exception of maybe 2 years, is Jim Belles I didn't know that about the warning criteria

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Ha! That is definitely not wrong (https://emoji.tapatalk-cdn.com/emoji23.png)

Have to keep in mind the KMEM 30-year snow average was over 5" through 2000. Since then it's gradually dropped to 3" (may even be less now...we're in a new 30-year normal period as of this year)...

I think the logic was historically an event which was your entirely seasonal total is an initial baseline to a high-impact event worthy of a "warning"...and it kind of continues today since it's 3" now and that's close to our current average...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 16, 2021, 06:32:16 PM
Nobody brings up 1/28/00 here. Trauma inducing. Almost as bad as the " "blizzard" "

The lack of agreement in the models this late is unsettling. Between the uncertainty in dry air/ptypes/ratios/vorticity...the range of outcomes only runs from about 1" to 8"....Gotta love it! This is happening in 12-18 hours for west sections lol
Can you explain the dry air thing a little more. I am like some others it seems to me arkansas and oklahoma would be dealing with dry air more than us, they have been deeper in the clutches of it longer. It just seems like we deal with it more than places to our east or west but we probably don't it may just seem like it. Bottom line it doesn't seem like we would have much drier air than arkansas or west tn does to deal with. Thanks in advance ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 06:40:37 PM
Can you explain the dry air thing a little more. I am like some others it seems to me arkansas and oklahoma would be dealing with dry air more than us, they have been deeper in the clutches of it longer. It just seems like we deal with it more than places to our east or west but we probably don't it may just seem like it. Bottom line it doesn't seem like we would have much drier air than arkansas or west tn does to deal with. Thanks in advance ::snowman::

The average wind direction during the event is going to be NE (it's been NW)...so it's advecting air in from the 180* opposite direction that the system is moving in from...while also moving air in from a region which will be relatively dry at during the event tomorrow. NE-wind events are notorious for dry air entrainment. Additionally...the 700mb layer or so while saturated...is not completely saturated. That's the region that promotes deeper moisure feed and is also close to the snow growth region where ratios and rates are both enhanced when that layer is deeply saturated. The lack of a stronger surface low reflection and upper forcing (unless you believe the NAM, etc) also reduces the deep moisture profile. IF the NAM were somehow to be right and we get stronger upper level energy then the moisture won't be a problem. Of course surface/aloft WAA would be a potential problem in that situation however.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 06:42:23 PM
Here is my redneck answer. Yesterday I was at 10 degrees with a 9 dew point. It is currently 14 degrees and my dew point is 1. The air is very dry. It
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 06:43:16 PM



Alright, I'm done. This is a family-friendly website.

Except for Drifter's avatar.

 :)

Truth!



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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on February 16, 2021, 06:57:30 PM
MUNDIE!

I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on February 16, 2021, 06:58:25 PM
Nobody brings up 1/28/00 here. Trauma inducing. Almost as bad as the " "blizzard" "

The lack of agreement in the models this late is unsettling. Between the uncertainty in dry air/ptypes/ratios/vorticity...the range of outcomes only runs from about 1" to 8"....Gotta love it! This is happening in 12-18 hours for west sections lol

I brought it up but had the year wrong
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 16, 2021, 07:00:37 PM
Here is my redneck answer. Yesterday I was at 10 degrees with a 9 dew point. It is currently 14 degrees and my dew point is 1. The air is very dry. It
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Heath22 on February 16, 2021, 07:07:17 PM
(https://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image16.png?2bc267bbb62de8aa5a7a40b426d2b53e)

Is there a **** invisible wall at the Rutherford county border......WTF ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 07:08:22 PM
I am sure it will be edited again

They typically post an updated accumulation map every 12 hours once we get within a reasonable timeframe for winter weather, so I was surprise to see them release another one soon after the 2:30 update. Likely they are getting more confident on where most of the snow will fall and have narrowed the 3-4" band. We can see the squeeze: Dry air to the NW, and temps rising slightly above freezing to the SE. The swath of snowfall may not be a very large one unless we get a hook on the backside that can bring some light snow to areas that were too warm with the initial round of precip.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mmryan on February 16, 2021, 07:12:17 PM
In this case he wasn't I seen it on wunderground and was thinking to myself that doesn't look right at all. Actually when I seen it showed 26, still thought that looked odd. About 10 minutes later the guy from Humbolt said their temp was showing 27. It was weird. ::rofl::
Mine was 25.5 for a very short while. It did coincide with the sun briefly coming out. I even double checked it with another thermometer. It was odd.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on February 16, 2021, 07:14:17 PM
Nashville is the same temperature as Grand Rapids, Michigan and Rochester, New York right now.  ::cold::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 07:20:14 PM
Ha! That is definitely not wrong (https://emoji.tapatalk-cdn.com/emoji23.png)

Have to keep in mind the KMEM 30-year snow average was over 5" through 2000. Since then it's gradually dropped to 3" (may even be less now...we're in a new 30-year normal period as of this year)...

I think the logic was historically an event which was your entirely seasonal total is an initial baseline to a high-impact event worthy of a "warning"...and it kind of continues today since it's 3" now and that's close to our current average...
To further prove the point, at some point in the 60s, the rolling 30 year average for KMEM was 8.3", I believe.  I used to have an Excel sheet with all these numbers.

In any case, a whole lot of the individual storms that made that up were huge events.  Obviously, you can probably pull Christmas Eve 1963 and April of 1968 right off the top.

KMEM hasn't had a big event capable of really moving averages since the 80s.  A single 15 inch event will boost your 30 year average by half an inch.

One other thing was noteworthy in that data.  There seemed to be that each 20 to 30 year boom period was followed by an equally long bust period.  So, when 1990 comes, you get a 30 year "normal" that is elevated due to having the 60s, 70s, and 80s factored in... and that comes just in time for the bust period.

Obviously, the data set is highly limited so we're stuck with what we have but, based on that, you should expect less when your normal is higher and more when it's lower, which means, IMO, 30 years is not the way to calculate this.  I guess we'll know soon enough if this is true because that cycle, if true, says it's time for lots of snowier years.

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 07:23:14 PM
does anybody else find that lone county in mississippi south of tupelo under a WWA surrounded by WSW comical ?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 07:23:18 PM
By the way, it appears we could get anything from this one.... There is no consensus- could be nothing, an inch, 5 inches, or 5 feet, correct?

Sounds like a 5 day forecast. 

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 07:25:22 PM
does anybody else find that lone county in mississippi south of tupelo under a WWA surrounded by WSW comical ?
Oh, it's no laughing matter for winter weather weenies there.  They are really pissed. 

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 07:29:35 PM
Looks like the 0z HRR is going to go Boom.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 07:30:30 PM
Oh, it's no laughing matter for winter weather weenies there.  They are really pissed. 

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monroe county ms
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 07:31:09 PM
Here is my redneck answer. Yesterday I was at 10 degrees with a 9 dew point. It is currently 14 degrees and my dew point is 1. The air is very dry. It
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 16, 2021, 07:32:33 PM
Just give me 0z hrrr and I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 07:33:11 PM
Fun Game for Memphis area posters:

So, NWS has a max range of 7" but imagine, somehow, that they bust way low (it's happened before) and this was a Feb 09 event with the epicenter on the metro. Oakland had 17" in that event.

Now, considering we already have the existing snow cover, imagine what would be said in a with an additional 12 to 18 inches.  What will the people you know say?  What will the media say?

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 07:33:54 PM
Looks like the 0z HRR is going to go Boom.
Do I like it?

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bugalou on February 16, 2021, 07:35:43 PM
We just lost power.  Awesome.

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on February 16, 2021, 07:36:18 PM
Do I like it?

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Yes.  Yes, you do.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 07:36:52 PM
Do I like it?

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Yes, you do  :)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on February 16, 2021, 07:37:50 PM
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021021700/hrrr_asnow_seus_33.png)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 07:42:36 PM
I would take a 2" total and cash out now. That would put me at about 6" for the year, and these days, I can't complain about reaching average.

Really would like to see the Nashville-Franklin-Murfreesboro-Lebanon area get a fix here. Would also be nice to see Chattanooga and Cleveland receive something measurable.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 07:45:10 PM
We just lost power.  Awesome.

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Hearing there may be a massive outage on Entergy
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 07:45:23 PM
We just lost power.  Awesome.

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Entergy?

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 07:45:33 PM
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021021700/hrrr_asnow_seus_33.png)
that heaviest bad wanting keep creeping eastward...  umm
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Lcwthrnut on February 16, 2021, 07:48:44 PM
0z HRRR!!! CHECK PLEASE IM READY TO GO!!!!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 07:48:52 PM
it has been consistent all day with good totals of 4-5 across a lot of mid state south of 40 . Not quite as bullish as the last nam i saw but still a nice looking map
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on February 16, 2021, 07:49:10 PM
I would take a 2" total and cash out now. That would put me at about 6" for the year, and these days, I can't complain about reaching average.

Really would like to see the Nashville-Franklin-Murfreesboro-Lebanon area get a fix here. Would also be nice to see Chattanooga and Cleveland receive something measurable.

That's not the end of it.  Looks like another 2" after the 33 hour.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 16, 2021, 07:51:45 PM
I'll cash in on the HRRR and then start prepping for SVR season.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 07:52:19 PM
That's not the end of it.  Looks like another 2" after the 33 hour.

Nice!

Given the yesterday's ice, I would still take my 2" for security. I simply won't believe anything higher.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 07:54:29 PM
End of HRR.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 07:55:28 PM
We just lost power.  Awesome.

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You gotta pay that bill, bug.  No pay, no power. 

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 07:56:28 PM
The 18Z euro runs did come up by another 0.10 around southwest TN. At this point Km not sure that
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 07:58:13 PM
The 18Z euro runs did come up by another 0.10 around southwest TN. At this point Km not sure that
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 16, 2021, 07:59:35 PM
The moisture is just gonna plow through!!! I am riding with that!!!! ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on February 16, 2021, 08:00:15 PM
Here's the final HRRR 48 hour image.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021021700/hrrr_asnow_seus_48.png)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 08:00:29 PM
I personally can
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 08:01:17 PM
Quite a bit more QPF in Mem vs BNA.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 08:04:15 PM
End of HRR.


(Attachment Link)
Nice... Now, take my formula and gives us 28 inches more, 34 total! You know where this is going!

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 08:04:40 PM
Here's the final HRRR 48 hour image.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021021700/hrrr_asnow_seus_48.png)

The ratio adjusted HRRR output is a decent bit higher...but after it's performance this last event I'm hesitant to post it. Would rather just stick with 10:1 and make small inferences where needed.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 08:05:25 PM
Just give me 0z hrrr and I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 16, 2021, 08:13:49 PM
Kevin, do you think this is overdone? 21z sref
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 16, 2021, 08:14:48 PM
I personally can
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 08:17:13 PM
(https://www.roadsideamerica.com/attract/images/tn/TNMEMpyramid_ks02_620x300.jpg)
That thing does the job most of the time but sometimes it backfires.... See Hurricane Elvis

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 08:17:24 PM
Looks like the NAM is finally playing catch up. Both NAM models have between 0.3 and 0.4 in QPF and 3-4 at Memphis. They both show significant QPF in central Arkansas that gets eaten up by some dry air as it heads northeast. Those are still decent amounts. The same translates into much of middle as well although much if middle transitions to a mix.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 08:18:18 PM
(https://www.roadsideamerica.com/attract/images/tn/TNMEMpyramid_ks02_620x300.jpg)
The tomb of (snow) doom

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 08:21:50 PM
Looks like the NAM is finally playing catch up. Both NAM models have between 0.3 and 0.4 in QPF and 3-4 at Memphis. They both show significant QPF in central Arkansas that gets eaten up by some dry air as it heads northeast. Those are still decent amounts. The same translates into much of middle as well although much if middle transitions to a mix.

Yup. Memphis QPF got cut in half from 18z lol. HRRR is probably not catching this so is likely too high across the MEG area. Precip shield just starts to fizzle just as it gets going in this area....

MEG's forecast of 6-8 in Memphis is in serious jeopardy...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 08:24:02 PM
The 0z NAM also basically makes the Thursday light snow event basically a non-event
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Beth on February 16, 2021, 08:24:20 PM
If that ain't the post of the winter. Welp.
I think I am ready for spring.  Call me terrible but have had enough of it already.  But then again, I will probably get excited if we get some really pretty snow tomorrow night. I think I am a bit wishy washy!  Sorry!  You guys are the best though!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 08:24:31 PM
nam and hrrr give me anywhere from 4-6. i will take that any day lol

Nam 3k is a big hit
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 08:25:26 PM
Yup. Memphis QPF got cut in half from 18z lol. HRRR is probably not catching this so is likely too high across the MEG area. Precip shield just starts to fizzle just as it gets going in this area....

MEG's forecast of 6-8 in Memphis is in serious jeopardy...
NAM QPF has actually been trending down over the last 5 or 6 runs

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: tncolts on February 16, 2021, 08:27:11 PM
Short story, it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 08:29:32 PM
Short story, it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 08:32:25 PM
Gonna be tough to see Central AR after getting 8-10 the other day get another 10-12 tomorrow while Memphis gets the usual 2-3 (which is where I think this is headed if I'm being honest...hoping to be wrong)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 08:45:06 PM
Gonna be tough to see Central AR after getting 8-10 the other day get another 10-12 tomorrow while Memphis gets the usual 2-3 (which is where I think this is headed if I'm being honest...hoping to be wrong)
This reminds me of February 9, 2011. We only had about 0.15 in QPF with great ratios in the mid 20
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 08:47:58 PM
Well alrighty then (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210217/207542e798763dc1cc59f6297e0052fc.jpg)

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 08:57:34 PM
0z WRF - these are 10:1 ratios

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210217/ceef9742f1d8b8ba000557311dea4cca.jpg)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 16, 2021, 09:01:50 PM
Well alrighty then (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210217/207542e798763dc1cc59f6297e0052fc.jpg)

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

BAM! They told you.

(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/32002062.jpg)

 ::shrug::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 09:45:03 PM
BAM! They told you.

(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/32002062.jpg)

 ::shrug::
Their answer was drier than what they are expecting for our atmosphere during this snow event

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 09:59:31 PM
GFS16 says congrats EastTN...  ::scratch::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 10:02:18 PM
I'm about to lose my mind...they have declared a State of Emergency over some snow.

It's not an emergency.... I'll let everyone know when they should get worried.  You know what... we'll figure out how to make it thru even if it's five feet deep.  I promise, most of us will find a way.... It's not an emergency right now but they are just being to turn this into another apocalyptic scenario instead of just rolling with it.

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 10:07:40 PM
GFS16 says congrats EastTN...  ::scratch::

Most all short term and globals give the entire state some reputable snow tomorrow and Thursday.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bluegrasspr on February 16, 2021, 10:15:43 PM
At this point, I would even settle for some disreputable snow.  ::rofl:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 10:20:00 PM
Most all short term and globals give the entire state some reputable snow tomorrow and Thursday.
Curt, did they declare the entire month of January 1985 an emergency?

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 16, 2021, 10:29:34 PM
MEGs 10p AFD sure reads as if this thing might overperform.

Quote
.UPDATE...
A vigorous shortwave trough is digging across Southern Plains this evening. Strong southwest flow downstream of this wave is providing a nice fetch of mid/high clouds across the region and this should help temperatures remain steady or even slightly warm overnight as winds become more easterly. Strong vertical motion can be inferred ahead of this trough which will overspread the Mid-South tonight into Wednesday, assisting in large scale ascent.
QG forcing fields are quite impressive with this system tonight through Thursday. Finally, the right entrance region to an intensifying upper-level jet will provide additional large scale ascent.

On the mesoscale, we do see an area of frontogentic forcing developing on Wednesday, intensifying through the evening hours. This is in response to warm advection above the stubborn arctic dome. This frontogenesis is located within an area of negative equivalent potential vorticity, which implies the presence of convective symmetric instability. This suggests the potential for the development of mesoscale snow bands leading to one or more axes of heavier snow. Exactly where these bands set up is still uncertain.

Recent guidance is also trending toward less sleet/freezing rain potential in Memphis and more in the way of snow. That said, only a degree or two warmer in the layer around 850 mb could yield more sleet and really eat into snow totals like the previous event. Farther north and west, snow looks to be the best bet with accumulations exceeding near or above 6 inches. The southeast corner of the CWA is where the most uncertainty exists given the stronger warm nose and marginally freezing surface temperatures.

My gut says temps will struggle to climb above freezing even in Monroe County, but that depends on the onset and intensity of the precipitation. At this time, no big changes were made to the snow or ice accumulation forecast but it`s possible ice totals may need to be increased in northeast MS.

Regardless, impacts are expected to be significant, especially given the base of sleet and snow that already exists on the ground across nearly all of the Mid-South. Travel will be extremely difficult and power outages are likely.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 10:40:54 PM
GFS16 says congrats EastTN...  ::scratch::

Probably heavy snow to begin followed by rain over there, if I had to guess.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 16, 2021, 10:48:13 PM
Curt, did they declare the entire month of January 1985 an emergency?

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Lol nope. No social media or cell phones. Just dealt with it.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: stayrose38 on February 16, 2021, 10:52:00 PM
I'm about to lose my mind...they have declared a State of Emergency over some snow.

It's not an emergency.... I'll let everyone know when they should get worried.  You know what... we'll figure out how to make it thru even if it's five feet deep.  I promise, most of us will find a way.... It's not an emergency right now but they are just being to turn this into another apocalyptic scenario instead of just rolling with it.

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Chill out man.. sounds like you're doing okay. Don't speak for an entire area though. Just because you're smoothing on through, doesn't mean everyone is.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 10:52:02 PM
Lol nope. No social media or cell phones. Just dealt with it.
Well, look at the rolling blackouts in Arkansas... I think something is up here.

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 10:54:56 PM
I'm about to lose my mind...they have declared a State of Emergency over some snow.

It's not an emergency.... I'll let everyone know when they should get worried.  You know what... we'll figure out how to make it thru even if it's five feet deep.  I promise, most of us will find a way.... It's not an emergency right now but they are just being to turn this into another apocalyptic scenario instead of just rolling with it.

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It's not just because of the snow. I would think it has something to do with 5 million+ Americans out of power during an outbreak of record cold air... doesn't hurt to encourage people to be ready in case they lose power.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 10:57:43 PM
It's not just because of the snow, I would I think. Believe it has something to do with 5 million+ Americans out of power during an outbreak of record cold air... doesn't hurt to encourage people to be ready in case they lose power.
I'm talking about the city of Memphis.  We have no such issues

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 11:00:02 PM
In Memphis, though?

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Couldn't heavy wet snow followed by frigid air- on top of an existing 5 inches of snow- put some strain on powerlines and utilities? Just a thought. I don't think that's being alarmist to issue a SOE to encourage people to be aware of what may happen. It's already happened to 3.5 million people in Texas. And I believe bugalou said his power just went out 30 minutes ago.

Edit: confirmed rolling blackouts in that area- so at least it is scheduled maintenance and not a widespread power failure.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 11:01:53 PM
MEGs 10p AFD sure reads as if this thing might overperform.
can you say thundersnow ?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 11:17:29 PM
I'm talking about the city of Memphis.  We have no such issues

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Cities and states do this to get state and federal funding when events happen. The state of Tennessee declared a state of emergency after the March 3 tornado and they also declared a state of emergency after up to half an inch of ice fell in Arkansas before it reaches Tennessee. It's all about getting money to allocate resources to mitigate issues or to help people that are impacted

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 11:24:09 PM
MEG going all in[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mtcards on February 16, 2021, 11:32:19 PM
Anyone else notice the OHX graphics of minimum and maximum snowfall/ice accumulations were taken down?  Guessing since last time the number of both was outside the spread and with the uncertainty of tomorrow nights storm, I can understand why
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 11:37:46 PM
Couldn't heavy wet snow followed by frigid air- on top of an existing 5 inches of snow- put some strain on powerlines and utilities? Just a thought. I don't think that's being alarmist to issue a SOE to encourage people to be aware of what may happen. It's already happened to 3.5 million people in Texas. And I believe bugalou said his power just went out 30 minutes ago.

Edit: confirmed rolling blackouts in that area- so at least it is scheduled maintenance and not a widespread power failure.
First of all, he's on Entergy in Desoto

Second, the power load in Texas and other places is still much less than summer peak demand but the companies are cutting off the power due to natural gas price spikes, so they cut the power supply that powers the pumps that pump the natural gas thru the pipelines that feed natural gas into those plants.  This keeps them from using additional natural gas, which is, in and of itself, pumping up the spot value of natural gas.  Thus also shuts down the natural gas Power plants and that strains the grid, forcing the blackouts.

This keeps them from losing money by using natural gas at a rate and price that they'll lose money.

In addition, most end users heat with natural gas.

So, thd crisis is actually not real in the sense that there is plenty of power capacity in Texas but they have purposefully taken it offline. 

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 11:40:14 PM
Cities and states do this to get state and federal funding when events happen. The state of Tennessee declared a state of emergency after the March 3 tornado and they also declared a state of emergency after up to half an inch of ice fell in Arkansas before it reaches Tennessee. It's all about getting money to allocate resources to mitigate issues or to help people that are impacted

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers
Yes, but why does a request for assistance require us to call it an emergency?  The language is panic inducing.

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 11:40:51 PM
Anyone else notice the OHX graphics of minimum and maximum snowfall/ice accumulations were taken down?  Guessing since last time the number of both was outside the spread and with the uncertainty of tomorrow nights storm, I can understand why

Yes, I did see that. I noticed they mapped the largest "maximum" amounts in the NW, which, given recent model trends, should be modified. The maximum amount of snowfall would probably occur in a SW to NE stripe just south of Nashville if we're going by the short-range models. Precipitation may initiallu have trouble getting up past the TN/KY border around Clarksville & Hopkinsville. I wouldn't expect the largest possible amounts in that part of our viewing area, but I could be wrong.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 11:41:27 PM
Already nice band of heavier snow developing back central Arkansas
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 16, 2021, 11:53:59 PM
Yes, I did see that. I noticed they mapped the largest "maximum" amounts in the NW, which, given recent model trends, should be modified. The maximum amount of snowfall would probably occur in a SW to NE stripe just south of Nashville if we're going by the short-range models. Precipitation may initiallu have trouble getting up past the TN/KY border around Clarksville & Hopkinsville. I wouldn't expect the largest possible amounts in that part of our viewing area, but I could be wrong.
Hey were getting ours don't be messing with our MOJO like that!  ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on February 17, 2021, 12:58:56 AM
Apparently, the gas pressure is too low for a lot of Texas power plants to start back up. Some others are on a yearly planned shutdown, and can
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on February 17, 2021, 01:02:32 AM
0z Euro hi-res is 2-3" MEM.. ~2-4" BNA.. 2" CKV.. 4" LIT @10:1. Kuchera similar.

Definate improvement for those in SW TN.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 01:34:43 AM
HRRR 6Z:
(https://i.imgur.com/jOAhn90.png)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on February 17, 2021, 01:55:05 AM
Next question is what does OHX do with the WSW? You can argue based off pure model output the entire CWA is eligible for a warning. We all question how far north moisture moisture can fully saturate the column. Where is CKV in this equation? On the Southern Plateau you have potential *checks notes* temp issues.

Will be interesting. If any, I'd bet on a surprise for the Plateau.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 01:57:44 AM
The SREF snow mean has increased totals.
(https://i.imgur.com/dV9Onc2.png)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 02:03:10 AM
I will take what the SREF is showing all day long, all the talk about dry air but here in Montgomery County it has not stopped us from having flurries even tonight. So really can't figure out why there would be that much trouble tomorrow. But I am no met. I like my chances at 2-4 inches and not out of question for a little more than that. Of course I am being confident and optimistic which I won't deny. ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 02:30:02 AM
nam gave widespread 4-7
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 03:04:23 AM
FWIW... nws now has 5 to 9 inches in my forecast grids ...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 03:35:00 AM
Winter Storm Warning for all of middle TN now.

They did mention in their AFD that even though some areas don
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 04:08:09 AM
Apparently, the gas pressure is too low for a lot of Texas power plants to start back up. Some others are on a yearly planned shutdown, and can
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 04:48:19 AM
HRRR is still aggressive with snowfall across middle TN this afternoon and evening.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on February 17, 2021, 04:53:03 AM
Looks like OHX has adjusted the highest amounts south a little to follow most of the guidance:

(http://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image16.png?4eaefaf091f3ca14f26c8945e9211a4b)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 05:08:07 AM
This looks great for the whole state.
9Z HRRR:

(https://i.imgur.com/53qbcWG.png)

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: jfranklin on February 17, 2021, 05:15:23 AM
It's certainly a rare day Lebanon and M'boro are more in the sweet spot than Clarksville.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 05:27:52 AM
I can confirm we had snow with the first band that came through. No virga.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 05:31:49 AM
I can confirm we had snow with the first band that came through. No virga.
well there went my thoughts lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 05:34:15 AM
Seems like each short range run keeps the mix precip out of most west tennessee outside the ms tn state line
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 05:38:11 AM
NAM 6Z Cobb Data for Memphis...
.45 QPF, 5.6" of snow, .05 sleet.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 05:41:28 AM
well there went my thoughts lol
My temp went up to 16 and dew point to 14 overnight.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 05:54:26 AM
The initial push of precip this morning appears heavy enough that it may make it through the dry air for at least a few hours. Most guidance thinks this precip is gonna taper if not fizzle later this morning as dry air increases however. Then the main push of precip later this afternoon. Gonna be a continued battle. Still favoring low totals locally at this time...2-4"...but we'll see how the column saturates through the day and how much the dry air has a major impact.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on February 17, 2021, 06:06:47 AM
The 06Z Euro paints a fairly narrow, but healthy 2-6" stripe of heavy wet snow on the exact area hit hardest by power outages south and east of Nashville.  :-\

Not good...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 06:09:15 AM
I went from a temp of 13 with a dewpoint of 7 at midnight to 15 and a dewpoint of 10 now. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 06:13:23 AM
TMEM indicates the column is saturated to about 2kft in the Memphis area. Still a bit of work to do...but the precip shield is currently heavy enough to get the job done in the next hour or so so long as dry air entrainment does not increase...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 06:39:27 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EubZupUXcAE90nP?format=jpg&name=large)

This picture is from Dallas and is what I imagine how the world would look like in a modern ice age. Building without power for days and then a water main break....and this is the result...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 06:43:53 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EubZupUXcAE90nP?format=jpg&name=large)

This picture is from Dallas and is what I imagine how the world would look like in a modern ice age. Building without power for days and then a water main break....and this is the result...
thats just down right wicked there.wow
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 06:46:31 AM
Latest HRR


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 06:50:06 AM
Up and running. And see all short term guidance has increased QPF this way. Interesting runs.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: SouthavenSpotter on February 17, 2021, 06:50:34 AM
Snow reaching the ground here at 51 in Southaven.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 06:51:49 AM
Latest HRR


(Attachment Link)
makes sense.  Notice heaviest axis setting up between pine bluff to edge Memphis . Interesting see iff it can get further ne as each short range come in.  Like Kevin said how much gets eating up by dry is key .thats somenheavy returns back down ne Texas and northern la
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 06:55:20 AM
Up and running. And see all short term guidance has increased QPF this way. Interesting runs.
when columns gets complete saturated. Think memphis to Jackson line. Stand to over achieve. Could see some healthy  accumulation s by this evening those areas
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on February 17, 2021, 07:06:20 AM
And the next question is, why us the gas pressure too low?

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Because so many people are using it. They
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ryandourius on February 17, 2021, 07:22:45 AM
thats just down right wicked there.wow

Someone let Elsa loose.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: SouthavenSpotter on February 17, 2021, 07:23:38 AM
Moderate Snow at Church/51.  Already have a new healthy dusting.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 17, 2021, 07:24:57 AM
Snowing now in Olive Branch as well.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 07:27:21 AM
Can see on last few frames of NQA how precip is having trouble pushing into Shelby County as it did Desoto/Crittenden. Dry air can be seen on the higher tilts being reinforced locally...we'll see how it trends...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 07:34:19 AM
The models did show the snow this morning fizzling as it arrived here. The main show will be this afternoon.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 07:38:23 AM
Snowing now in Olive Branch as well.
thats good to hear ::sneezy:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 07:39:02 AM
12z HRRR has backed off about .1 to .2 QPF across most of W TN....sharp cutoff starts at the MS River/Delta because of dry air...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 07:39:11 AM
12z HRR through tomorrow. Time to cash out.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matt on February 17, 2021, 07:42:36 AM
12z HRR through tomorrow. Time to cash out.


(Attachment Link)

Yep. Cash out and start spring!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 07:53:50 AM
12Z HRRR brings it to just about everybody in Tennessee, which is great.

This WPC 50th percentile 72 hr. snowfall map was posted at 3am CST. It is pretty consistent with the latest HRRR which brings 2-4" statewide.



Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 08:02:16 AM
Actually peeks of sun almost coming through...that's some dry air!
Title: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 08:03:54 AM
12z HRRR has backed off about .1 to .2 QPF across most of W TN....sharp cutoff starts at the MS River/Delta because of dry air...
Looks like the 12z was more than the 11Z to me. Looks like it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 08:05:37 AM
Looks like the 12z was more than the 11Z to me. Looks like it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 08:08:18 AM
Sorry...that was a comparison of 6z to 12z in order to get the full system through...
Yeah that makes sense. Most shorty term models ended up in the 0.4 QPF range for us.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 08:08:57 AM
just hoping for my first 3+ inch snow since 2011, looks like i am on track, lets bring it home.

Doesn't have to be earth shattering just a 3-4 inch snowfall and i will be happy!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 08:11:47 AM
Definitely wasn't expecting peeks of sun this morning. Not full sun by any means but coming through slightly thinner clouds every once in a while. We're gonna have to go through this resaturation process all over again this afternoon when the main slug of moisture moves in...which is going to waste some QPF. Would not be shocked if models are still a tenth or two too high
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 08:13:23 AM
Nam and HRRR on my side 4-7 totals common south of 40...maybe a little overdone, 3-5 could be common though
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 17, 2021, 08:20:03 AM
Definitely breaks in the clouds to the East of here. Getting sun and snow. Reminds me of the scene from The Perfect Storm when George Clooney and Mark Wahlberg think they are gonna make it out when the setting sun peeks through the clouds on the horizon. And then all of a sudden, the skies darken again and well...you know...

Here's hoping our ship sinks in snow...metaphorically, of course!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 08:22:09 AM
Actually peeks of sun almost coming through...that's some dry air!
increasing instability some? lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 08:27:04 AM
increasing instability some? lol

it was mentioned in the meg AFD lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 08:31:35 AM
it was mentioned in the meg AFD lol
no joke, sure we are dealing with dry air in pockets of the atmosphere. it will actually help increase the convective banding to enhance heavier returns later. see how it plays out
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 08:38:30 AM
If you want some optimism (I know I haven't provided much this morning)...the moisture back to SW seems to be increasing faster to the NE than modeled. So....we'll see if it can make it ahead of schedule. Given the dry air I wouldn't hold my breath on it yet but it's worth watching
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 08:39:28 AM
no joke, sure we are dealing with dry air in pockets of the atmosphere. it will actually help increase the convective banding to enhance heavier returns later. see how it plays out

agreed, get under one of those bands and get 2 inches in an hour
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on February 17, 2021, 08:39:55 AM
Partly cloudy in Collierville and can easily see blue skies between the clouds at the moment. Crazy that its pouring snow 10-20 miles to the west
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: RobD on February 17, 2021, 08:43:20 AM
So, thd crisis is actually not real in the sense that there is plenty of power capacity in Texas but they have purposefully taken it offline. 

And the problem is exacerbated because TX isn't connected to any of the adjacent power grids from what I'm reading. I have a good # of friends in the Dallas and Austin areas and they're being told that gas & power won't be back till Friday, and there's a boil order for water (which they can't do because they don't have gas or electricity.)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 08:43:31 AM
If you want some optimism (I know I haven't provided much this morning)...the moisture back to SW seems to be increasing faster to the NE than modeled. So....we'll see if it can make it ahead of schedule. Given the dry air I wouldn't hold my breath on it yet but it's worth watching
WRF modeling has huge QPF spikes and valleys once you get past the MS River. Most will do decent. But it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ryandourius on February 17, 2021, 09:02:27 AM
I can also confirm we got the sun trying to peak through from time to time here in Humboldt as well.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 09:04:54 AM
If you want some optimism (I know I haven't provided much this morning)...the moisture back to SW seems to be increasing faster to the NE than modeled. So....we'll see if it can make it ahead of schedule. Given the dry air I wouldn't hold my breath on it yet but it's worth watching

And, we could just get stuck under some heavy banding and watch it pour down...you never know what may happen   ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on February 17, 2021, 09:07:49 AM
And the problem is exacerbated because TX isn't connected to any of the adjacent power grids from what I'm reading. I have a good # of friends in the Dallas and Austin areas and they're being told that gas & power won't be back till Friday, and there's a boil order for water (which they can't do because they don't have gas or electricity.)

They can't turn it back on. Their systems are designed to keep homes in the 65-78F range. They cannot deliver enough power to bring homes back from 35F. Part of the reason for shutdown is rising gas costs which they cannot easily pass on to the consumers. So, keeping the power on during this event was going to cost the power companies money, that was a big driver in the decision to shut down the plants. It would be hard to argue that any deaths that resulted from the shutdown were "accidental". I'm thankful to have my power today. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 09:09:11 AM
And the problem is exacerbated because TX isn't connected to any of the adjacent power grids from what I'm reading. I have a good # of friends in the Dallas and Austin areas and they're being told that gas & power won't be back till Friday, and there's a boil order for water (which they can't do because they don't have gas or electricity.)

So, the perception is that an awful lot of Texans view this as an planned attack on that grid.  The self-sustaining power grid of Texas was often cited in Texas's ability to declare itself as "energy independent" from the rest of the USA. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 09:10:15 AM
They can't turn it back on. Their systems are designed to keep homes in the 65-78F range. They cannot deliver enough power to bring homes back from 35F. Part of the reason for shutdown is rising gas costs which they cannot easily pass on to the consumers. So, keeping the power on during this event was going to cost the power companies money, that was a big driver in the decision to shut down the plants. It would be hard to argue that any deaths that resulted from the shutdown were "accidental". I'm thankful to have my power today.

Yes, they shut it down on purpose because they would lose money. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 09:13:12 AM
Partly cloudy in Collierville and can easily see blue skies between the clouds at the moment. Crazy that its pouring snow 10-20 miles to the west
instability increasing for the win
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: RobD on February 17, 2021, 09:15:51 AM
Yes, they shut it down on purpose because they would lose money.

That's criminal.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 09:17:54 AM
Hard to believe Memphis is about to tie a record for consecutive days below freezing.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bellatrixr on February 17, 2021, 09:19:36 AM
What's the timing this time for Nashville?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 09:20:15 AM
Quote
AREAS AFFECTED...THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWEST 
TENNESSEE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW   
 
VALID 171515Z - 172115Z 
 
SUMMARY...A BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA, 
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MEMPHIS, TN METROPOLITAN AREA BEGINNING 
AROUND 17Z. 
 
DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK 
OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD COVERING MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN 
LOUISIANA CURRENTLY.  OVER THE PAST HOUR, PRECIPITATION (FALLING 
MOSTLY AS MODERATE SNOW) HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFIED 
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS NEAR PINE BLUFF/DUMAS AND VICINITY.   
THE OVERALL REGIME WILL FAVOR CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THE 
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI, 
WITH THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL IN THE MEMPHIS, TN METRO AREA AROUND 17Z. 
 SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN 
THIS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z.  POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS OF THE MD AREA (GENERALLY FROM TEXARKANA TO BOLIVAR COUNTY, 
MS).  OCCASIONAL 1" PER HOUR RATES ARE EXPECTED - ESPECIALLY IN 
AREAS THAT MAINTAIN AN ALL-SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 09:23:14 AM


I am expecting one of these for northeast mississippi and southern mid state later today as well :)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on February 17, 2021, 09:24:01 AM
They can't turn it back on. Their systems are designed to keep homes in the 65-78F range. They cannot deliver enough power to bring homes back from 35F. Part of the reason for shutdown is rising gas costs which they cannot easily pass on to the consumers. So, keeping the power on during this event was going to cost the power companies money, that was a big driver in the decision to shut down the plants. It would be hard to argue that any deaths that resulted from the shutdown were "accidental". I'm thankful to have my power today.
I don't think I buy that. There's no reason they couldn't slowly roll out to one substation at a time. Surely the grid is capable of that.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 09:28:08 AM
Sun is out in Primm Springs. It's pretty out.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 09:30:27 AM
just wondering how our potential winter storm event started getting cluttered with posts about power outages in texas? not trying to be rude i promise lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 09:34:41 AM
What's the timing this time for Nashville?

As always, check your NWS for exact details. Hard for an amateur to determine start time due to the uncertainty of dry air...but I'd say a window of roughly 5-7pm would be appropriate.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on February 17, 2021, 09:35:03 AM
What do you experts on here expect on the timing for southern mid tn? 4PM? We missed out on the snow last one. Got ice and want no more of that. What is your opinions?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 09:37:25 AM
What do you experts on here expect on the timing for southern mid tn? 4PM? We missed out on the snow last one. Got ice and want no more of that. What is your opinions?

What city are you in?

Disclaimer: I'm 93 million miles from an "expert" but I will try to help!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 09:38:02 AM
So, the perception is that an awful lot of Texans view this as an planned attack on that grid.

Yep- 'cause we live in the age of conspiracy theories. There's a sinister plot behind everything that happens.  ;)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on February 17, 2021, 09:40:24 AM
I am in Tullahoma
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 09:43:05 AM
I am in Tullahoma

I'm thinking around 8-9pm for your area
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 09:44:06 AM
Cirrus clouds are moving in. Here she comes
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on February 17, 2021, 09:50:44 AM
Yep- 'cause we live in the age of conspiracy theories. There's a sinister plot behind everything that happens.  ;)
My sister lives in Dallas.  We have only been able to talk to her a couple of times.  She says it is horrible; her heater has been damaged by the power surges.  They now have no heat at all, and the pipes to her kitchen sink appear to be frozen.  She cooks as much food as she can in the short periods when power is on, and they have been spending most of the time huddled under blankets with their two beagles.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Andy on February 17, 2021, 09:51:28 AM
The NWS shared this...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 09:51:40 AM
14z HRRR is down to .38" QPF for Memphis...however it doesn't start accumulating snow until 2 PM. Looking at radar trends so far (and watching for the dry air monster to show up again)...let's just see about that...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: marjl21 on February 17, 2021, 09:54:51 AM
Dry air mean higher ratios?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 09:57:06 AM
14z HRRR is down to .38" QPF for Memphis...however it doesn't start accumulating snow until 2 PM. Looking at radar trends so far (and watching for the dry air monster to show up again)...let's just see about that...

Not sure why NWS Memphis was so smugly confident in response to Jeremy's tweet about dry air last night. Seems like an issue across the board.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on February 17, 2021, 09:58:59 AM
Light snow has started back here.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 09:59:03 AM
I will say so far this new precip moving in is making it through the dry air aloft much easier. Going by TMEM. We'll see.....
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Woodvegas on February 17, 2021, 10:07:00 AM
Looks like the 2/17 12Z GFS is upping the snow totals for many areas in Middle TN, 4 to 6 inches for some. We shall see.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: southaven on February 17, 2021, 10:10:43 AM
Wife says its a pretty consistant light snow in Southaven, so most shown on radar is hitting ground.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 10:14:57 AM
I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on February 17, 2021, 10:21:13 AM
Eerily quiet around here considering what may be coming.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 10:22:44 AM
Getting a consistent light snow in Olive Branch right now. 1 mile west of Hacks Cross & 1 mile south of 302

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 10:23:44 AM
I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 10:24:29 AM
Eerily quiet around here considering what may be coming.
The whitewalkers?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 10:31:59 AM
Eerily quiet around here considering what may be coming.
I was thinking the same thing.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 10:32:50 AM
HRRR showing 7-10pm being the sweet spot for BNA where we see should see heavier rates.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on February 17, 2021, 10:35:59 AM
Incredible WAA here this morning. We have warmed from 17.0 to 34.2 despite a light NE wind.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: skidude901 on February 17, 2021, 10:37:40 AM
We have light snow in S. Collierville now.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2021, 10:38:53 AM
Dry air mean higher ratios?

Dry air means less moisture.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on February 17, 2021, 10:40:31 AM
I don't think I buy that. There's no reason they couldn't slowly roll out to one substation at a time. Surely the grid is capable of that.

They may get to that point but, my current understanding is that with nearly every structure at, near or below freezing, demand exceeds supply. There is no way for them to deliver the energy needed for everyone to warm their homes. A slow rollout may be the only option. That option leaves many people to suffer. They have shot themselves in the foot over this. Adding to the woes, many of the stations have been left to freeze as well.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 10:41:45 AM
Definitely still dry air aloft as seen off NQA/TMEM that will affect rates in the metro and this may start fizzling some (maybe not completely) over the next hour...

HRRR is probably on target with the actual steady-moderate snow finally making it 2-3 PM or so. 15z did up QPF back a bit...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 10:43:29 AM
if we can get some of this leading edge moisture to saturate us here in s/w mid state we could be looking at a sooner start to snow than anticipated and perhaps longer duration, clouds have gone quite dark in past 20 minutes
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 10:45:25 AM
Light snow in Collierville.  Hopefully, we can get some of this to start sticking soon.   ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: memphishogfan on February 17, 2021, 10:45:54 AM
Manila, AR, pretty good snowfall making its way to the ground.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: AdamLewis on February 17, 2021, 10:49:52 AM
Cleveland & Bradley County gets screwed again!  This winter is the pits!
Title: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: tncolts on February 17, 2021, 10:50:06 AM
Not an expert, don
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 10:53:38 AM
Cleveland & Bradley County gets screwed again!  This winter is the pits!

Yeah SE/TN looks to win the award no one wants...least snowfall area in the State this winter.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 17, 2021, 11:05:20 AM
Talked to someone in Corinth Ms (southwest of savannah), they have sleet/snow mix falling. Maybe we will see returns moving into southern middle tn reach the ground sooner than thought.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 11:07:19 AM
Talked to someone in Corinth Ms (southwest of savannah), they have sleet/snow mix falling. Maybe we will see returns moving into southern middle tn reach the ground sooner than thought.

If so then we will get more than anticipated here in perry and lewis  for sure
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: cliftown04 on February 17, 2021, 11:10:28 AM
Yes light sleet just started here in northern Wayne.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 11:18:36 AM
OHX radar is picking up on the precip moving into the midstate. Virga so far, but should be hitting the ground before too long.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 11:21:02 AM
We are now overcast after being partly cloudy for a couple of hours this morning. DP must be rising.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 17, 2021, 11:23:46 AM
Sleeting in linden
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 11:26:34 AM
Latest HRRR keeping better QPF south of roughly I-40.

edit: just talking about middle TN.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 17, 2021, 11:30:46 AM
Sleet mixing in a fair amount in Collierville. Would rather it just dry up than sleet.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 11:31:56 AM
just saying if this turns into a sleet fest again i will hate winter forever LOL. i expect the column to totally cool down around 1 or 2pm though
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 11:32:05 AM
Dry air largely winning the battle so far
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: spanarkle08 on February 17, 2021, 11:32:54 AM
Nothing falling in Carroll Co
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 11:34:45 AM
it's very early in the game, event really not even underway for midstate....glad a round of virga is coming through now well before the heavier returns should be arriving :)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 11:35:08 AM
TSSN reported in southwestern Arkansas
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 11:37:03 AM
just saying if this turns into a sleet fest again i will hate winter forever LOL. i expect the column to totally cool down around 1 or 2pm though

This one's going to be almost all snow after the first bit of sleet/snow mix comes through. I'm fairly confident.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 11:37:30 AM
This one's going to be almost all snow after the first bit of sleet/snow mix comes through. I'm fairly confident.

agreed, i was just putting it out there lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 11:37:54 AM
TSSN reported in southwestern Arkansas

Dang. Looks like it is really cranking down there.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 11:39:25 AM
There's this weird strip running SW to NE all morning that kind of parallels I-40 from the Airport where the dry air is the most stubborn...of course my house is sitting right under it....
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 17, 2021, 11:40:04 AM
It's gonna have to be bone dry to erase what's on the radar to our SE. Judging by the radar, I'd shift the axis of heaviest precipitation south of where MEG pegged it with their morning update. Perhaps the northern edge along I-40.

We've had a steady light snow in OB for most of the morning with just a few breaks. The flakes here are starting to get a little bigger, so I suspect it's about to pick up pretty good across the region.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 11:40:38 AM
I am noticing TMEM has a melting layer aloft now....that could be indicative of sleet becoming a higher possibility....
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 11:41:22 AM
There's this weird strip running SW to NE all morning that kind of parallels I-40 from the Airport where the dry air is the most stubborn...of course my house is sitting right under it....
I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 17, 2021, 11:41:44 AM
I am noticing TMEM has a melting layer aloft now....that could be indicative of sleet becoming a higher possibility....

100% sleet in SE Shelby now. Wasn
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 11:43:44 AM
It
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 11:43:55 AM
Probable sleet snow line. Decent bit farther north than expected
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 17, 2021, 11:44:48 AM
It's gonna have to be bone dry to erase what's on the radar to our SE.

Don't taunt the god of dry air. He is a strong and spiteful god. .
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 11:48:28 AM
HRRR does have the warm layer modeled well and sinks it back SE once heavier precip moves in. We'll see.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter on February 17, 2021, 11:50:45 AM
just saying if this turns into a sleet fest again i will hate winter forever LOL. i expect the column to totally cool down around 1 or 2pm though
Don't be hatin on a sleet fest

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 11:51:02 AM
Dry air largely winning the battle so far

If we use the 12Z NAM as a reference, this is right on schedule
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 17, 2021, 11:51:26 AM
Back to a mix now. It does seem that the steadier the precip, the more snow becomes the dominant p-type. That sleet/snow line is waffling along the Shelby/Marshall County line.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 11:54:41 AM
HRRR does have the warm layer modeled well and sinks it back SE once heavier precip moves in. We'll see.

agreed, expect it to move farther s/e soon when the heavier precip moves in
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: marjl21 on February 17, 2021, 11:56:16 AM
We are probably 25% sleet, 75% snow here. The heavier the precip, the more the mix is sleet.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 17, 2021, 11:56:40 AM
Sleet to snow battle going on right now. Keeps going back and forth. Just glad to see something reaching the ground here this early. If nothing else maybe it will help out later when the actual shield of precip moves in?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 11:59:07 AM
MEG just dropped accumulations for the metro down to 3-5. Closer to that 2-4 lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 11:59:46 AM
Driving into the office snow coming down at a decent clip around 64 and 40 blowing all over the interstate
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 12:02:07 PM
MEG just dropped accumulations for the metro down to 3-5. Closer to that 2-4 lol
They have me 2-4 this afternoon and 2-4 tonight after the last update

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on February 17, 2021, 12:07:59 PM
With the dry air effect, I think any amount over 4 inches will be for those lucky enough to get under heavier bands of snow.  I think 2-3 is a reasonable expectation and anything above 3 inches is gravy.   
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 12:11:43 PM
Snowing harder by the minute here.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 12:12:22 PM
With the first batch entering the mid-State it is being stonewalled around Mt Pleasant to Dickson.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 12:12:47 PM
With the dry air effect, I think any amount over 4 inches will be for those lucky enough to get under heavier bands of snow.  I think 2-3 is a reasonable expectation and anything above 3 inches is gravy.   

South of 40 seems much better odds of 3-5 than KY border
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 12:13:28 PM
Whoever answered my question about dry air from MEG last night is probably thinking "wth" right now lol

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: David on February 17, 2021, 12:14:17 PM
Whoever answered my question about dry air from MEG last night is probably thinking "wth" right now lol

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

I would reply ha
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 12:18:04 PM
Snowing moderately in Bartlett
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 12:19:02 PM
Sleet line has pushed NW inching towards Southaven-OB-Collierville
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: SouthavenSpotter on February 17, 2021, 12:20:00 PM
Big flakes, moderate to heavy snow 51-church.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 12:20:48 PM
Big flakes, moderate to heavy snow 51-church.

You are VERY close to where NQA indicates a changeover line may be. Keep a watch out...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: SouthavenSpotter on February 17, 2021, 12:23:11 PM
Very pretty snow.. sleet ever so slightly mixing. Could just be the flakes though as they are large.


EtA it isn't sleet, just big wet flakes making noise as they hit the car.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on February 17, 2021, 12:29:13 PM
In Collierville right now is a mix of wet snow, sleet, and even some rain drops.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: marjl21 on February 17, 2021, 12:30:07 PM
All snow here, fairly moderate and starting to reduce visibilities
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 17, 2021, 12:30:24 PM
100% sleet in OB now (Craft and Goodman).
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 12:30:43 PM
In Collierville right now is a mix of wet snow, sleet, and even some rain drops.

Yeesh ZR would be no bueno. Think (hope) that would be fairly isolated. HRRR still indicates 850 temps cool back over the next hour or two to the SE
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 12:31:16 PM
100% sleet in OB now (Craft and Goodman).

Lines up with CC data
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 12:32:26 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210217/4fda3d21f35d6c9c6e7f70e3f1bf5b58.jpg)

For reference....
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 17, 2021, 12:33:45 PM
Back to all heavy sleet in south Collierville. Yuck.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 12:34:54 PM
Whoever answered my question about dry air from MEG last night is probably thinking "wth" right now lol

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

That person was kind of a turd.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: SouthavenSpotter on February 17, 2021, 12:35:30 PM
Funny how it is always dry over memphis in this situation, but once you get on the other side of memphis, all good, saturation complete.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 12:37:23 PM
Funny how it is always dry over memphis in this situation, but once you get on the other side of memphis, all good, saturation complete.

That has to do with the limitation of the radar. Because the earth is curved and the radar can only send out a straight beam...as you go further out from where the radar is located you are looking further up in the atmosphere. So when you see that "snow hole" near the radar at Memphis that's because it's hitting the low levels where snow is evaporating. Farther away...the beam is thousands of feet up where it's still snowing and hasn't evaporated yet.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on February 17, 2021, 12:39:24 PM
OK West TN send some love to the middle part. please
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 12:41:37 PM
Not noticing much new accumulation on surfaces that had dried off prior to today like metal objects and roofs. Snow is still too light. Roads are in fine shape so far...well where roads were plowed/cleared
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 17, 2021, 12:42:49 PM
Rain and wet sleet now.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 12:44:03 PM
Rain and wet sleet now.

Freezing rain at 22-25 degrees would not be good at all....
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 12:47:40 PM
The melting layer aloft is *trying* to collapse back some on NQA. Maybe that means we're headed back in the right direction for snow...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 12:49:24 PM
Not noticing much new accumulation on surfaces that had dried off prior to today like metal objects and roofs. Snow is still too light. Roads are in fine shape so far...well where roads were plowed/cleared
I40 is the best road in town. Secondary roads are horrible. Tomorrow rush hour will suck. The pandemic will mute moot much traffic. Getting out of the neighborhood is the worst part.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 12:50:32 PM
Latest HRRR continues the trend of lowering totals north of 40 in the mid State.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on February 17, 2021, 12:51:21 PM
Probably 75/25 Snow/Sleet here. Still very light with more precip trying to push in, but struggling.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 12:53:29 PM
I think we are fighting a losing battle up this way.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ryandourius on February 17, 2021, 12:53:45 PM
Light snow here in Humboldt. I would say some sleet is mixing in as well.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 17, 2021, 12:57:15 PM
Back to steady all snow.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 12:58:13 PM
Going to have to get into some steady 20dbz and up returns to really get into accumulations...and it's just struggling to push in on a widespread scale. Every time it tries dry air starts eating back in to lighter returns. Should gradually abate...but yeah this is why HRRR doesn't have accumulating snow in Memphis until at least after 2...

Meanwhile SE AR well on their way to verifying those high amounts...we'll see if we can eek out 3-4 here....
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 12:59:11 PM
Latest HRRR continues the trend of lowering totals north of 40 in the mid State.

I said it yesterday south of 40 here in midstate is where to be. towards ky border will be lucky to get 2 inches in my opinion. BUT still very early in the ballgame precip extends back to little rock still and all the way to central louisiana streaming north it still might make it that far north for heavier totals
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 01:01:01 PM
Going to have to get into some steady 20dbz and up returns to really get into accumulations...and it's just struggling to push in on a widespread scale. Every time it tries dry air starts eating back in to lighter returns. Should gradually abate...but yeah this is why HRRR doesn't have accumulating snow in Memphis until at least after 2...

Meanwhile SE AR well on their way to verifying those high amounts...we'll see if we can eek out 3-4 here....

I'm planning to get stuck under some heavy banding myself.  That's my plan. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 01:01:28 PM
Going to have to get into some steady 20dbz and up returns to really get into accumulations...and it's just struggling to push in on a widespread scale. Every time it tries dry air starts eating back in to lighter returns. Should gradually abate...but yeah this is why HRRR doesn't have accumulating snow in Memphis until at least after 2...

Meanwhile SE AR well on their way to verifying those high amounts...we'll see if we can eek out 3-4 here....

Yep, 18z HRRR and RAP are in agreement that you guys start between 2 and 3.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 01:05:50 PM
On the positive sign...seeing more confident trends that the melting layer is either stable if not collapsing back south so snow will hopefully become increasingly dominant for the main precipitation. It may still wiggle back and forth through the afternoon across SE metro sections if HRRR 850 temps are to be believed however...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: SouthavenSpotter on February 17, 2021, 01:06:03 PM
Big push of moisture incoming. Still snow for now.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 01:07:01 PM
New MD out https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0110.html

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 01:09:06 PM
New MD out https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0110.html

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

This one is a keeper.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0110.gif)

Quote
   Mesoscale Discussion 0110
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

   Areas affected...northern Mississippi through middle Tennessee and
   far southern Kentucky

   Concerning...Heavy snow

   Valid 171900Z - 172200Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snow continues to spread
   northeastward into the discussion area from the southwest.  1" per
   hour rates will gradually become increasingly likely over the course
   of the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Heavier reflectivities are beginning to appear in radar
   mosaic imagery from bear Oxford, MS to southwest of Nashville, TN
   over the past hour.  The precipitation itself is likely tied to
   isentropic lift across upstream areas of Arkansas/Louisiana where
   50-60 kt low-level flow continues to impinge on a shallow
   sub-freezing airmass.  The precipitation itself is outpacing most
   model guidance, and with low-level moistening occurring beneath the
   precipitation shield, areas of moderate to occasionally heavy snow
   should begin across the discussion area over the next 1-2 hours or
   so.  Snow should be the be dominant precip type, though point
   forecast soundings indicate enough of a warm layer aloft to support
   occasional mixing with sleet at times.

   ..Cook.. 02/17/2021
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 01:11:12 PM
Cloud cover has gotten noticeably thicker and lower in the last couple of hours here. I'll bet the snow is flying a few thousand feet above me, as detected by the radar.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 17, 2021, 01:12:10 PM
Heaviest precip yet. 50/50 sleet snow. Starting to accumulate on surfaces that was clear from Sunday/Monday
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 01:13:32 PM
Still confident of 2-3 up my way, who knows maybe we even get lucky a get under a great band or 2. Still early and more than ready to go down swinging with a snowpack on the ground waiting for more. Good luck everyone, maybe we will get a surprise we are due one of them. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 01:14:38 PM
This one is a keeper.


(https://media.giphy.com/media/q6ViBxiqEtVnO/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 01:15:15 PM
Northeast of De Witt, Arkansas[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 01:19:26 PM
Snow is extraordinarily heavy along I-40 at Hazen (see Jeremy's screenshot above for location you will see the city name near the top of it)...

https://twitter.com/KATVToddYak/status/1362118860531331075 (https://twitter.com/KATVToddYak/status/1362118860531331075)

Will *that* ever make it this far east? I don't know about that...but it's pounding as thought back that way...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 01:21:33 PM
Starting to darken here now. Any patches of light from the February sun angle have surrendered to the cloud cover.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: SouthavenSpotter on February 17, 2021, 01:24:21 PM
Flirting with heavy snow down here. Love the radar right now.
Title: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 01:25:40 PM
Snow is extraordinarily heavy along I-40 at Hazen (see Jeremy's screenshot above for location you will see the city name near the top of it)...

https://twitter.com/KATVToddYak/status/1362118860531331075 (https://twitter.com/KATVToddYak/status/1362118860531331075)

Will *that* ever make it this far east? I don't know about that...but it's pounding as thought back that way...
HRR upping Memphis totals again. Widespread metro 5 inches with 6 banging on there western door

Edit- the 40 corridor between memphis and Little Rock will do really well esp just east of LR around Brinkley. I would not want to be going over the White River bridge today.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 01:27:14 PM
Quote
..A DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT CLEVELAND 
SOUTHEASTERN 
GRANT...NORTH CENTRAL CALHOUN...EASTERN DALLAS...JEFFERSON...LINCOLN 
AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS COUNTIES... 
 
AT 122 PM CST, A DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL WAS LOCATED NEAR LAMONT, OR 9 
MILES NORTH OF RISON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. 
 
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... 
PINE BLUFF, FORDYCE, STAR CITY, RISON, WHITE HALL, ALTHEIMER, GOULD, 
HUMPHREY, GRADY, KINGSLAND, CARTHAGE, WHITEFIELD, LITTLE BAYOU METO 
PARK, WOODVILLE, TIPTON, DOUGLAS, HERBINE, NEBO, FEENYVILLE AND 
COTTONDALE. 
 
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 46. 
   
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP QUICKLY TO NEAR ZERO IN THIS DANGEROUS SQUALL   
WHICH WILL MAY DRIVING EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AS THE AREA OF HEAVIEST   
SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 
 
CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS. BE 
PREPARED FOR SNOW OR ICE COVERED ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA 
TIME WHEN TRAVELING. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 01:30:24 PM
HRR upping Memphis totals again. Widespread metro 5 inches with 6 banging on there western door

Edit- the 40 corridor between memphis and Little Rock will do really well esp just east of LR around Brinkley. I would not want to be going over the White River bridge today.
love the trend I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on February 17, 2021, 01:30:47 PM
Still snow and sleet mix continues here but the rates have noticeably picked up within the last 15 minutes to moderate, best we
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 01:31:52 PM
Jackson is a complete mad house . Kroger just return From people are going crazy lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on February 17, 2021, 01:32:48 PM
This one is a keeper.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0110.gif)

Centered up right on gcbama in Lewis county!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 01:33:31 PM
Snow really picking up here now.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 01:34:03 PM


A "dangerous snow squall"  ::wow::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: SouthavenSpotter on February 17, 2021, 01:34:26 PM
It's happening.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 01:34:47 PM
I-240 cams along south loop shows snow is ripping there...some cars may be stuck/stranded on the side near Mt Moriah
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 01:35:02 PM
https://idrivearkansas.com

Grab the camera function and you can go to near Pine Bluff to see the squall. It
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 01:35:12 PM
Flakes getting bigger here now as I speak
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 01:37:10 PM
Anyone in Centerville or areas to the SW of me seeing anything? Thank you in advance
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ryandourius on February 17, 2021, 01:37:14 PM
Jackson is a complete mad house . Kroger just return From people are going crazy lol

I was just there. It was horrible at the one with the Starbucks on Highland.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 01:37:27 PM
Snow has really picked up here with steady large flakes

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 01:38:03 PM
Anyone in Centerville or areas to the SW of me seeing anything? Thank you in advance

Sleet snow mix right now, not too heavy yet here in lewis county
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: TNHunter on February 17, 2021, 01:38:23 PM
Snowing hard here in Dyersburg. It
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Beth on February 17, 2021, 01:38:38 PM
Starting to snow in Dickson!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 01:39:26 PM
Any exposed pavement is now disappearing.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 01:39:30 PM
Centered up right on gcbama in Lewis county!

lol i know right, i am just waiting on the heavy stuff.

If this pans out the way radar looks, 5-7 is not out of the question
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 01:40:05 PM
I was just there. It was horrible at the one with the Starbucks on Highland.
Jackson needs more than one Starbucks - badly.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 01:40:56 PM
Jackson needs more than one Starbucks - badly.
we got five of them curt lol least
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: andyhb on February 17, 2021, 01:41:29 PM
Those are some crazy reflectivity returns in AR south of Little Rock for it being all snow.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 01:42:44 PM
Man radar just keeps filling in way back nw Louisiana. That
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 01:43:13 PM
Those are some crazy reflectivity returns in AR south of Little Rock for it being all snow.

When Andy shows up to remark about snow reflectivities on radar, you know it's serious.  >:D  ::wow::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 01:44:20 PM
Still think I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 01:45:30 PM
Heavy snow Shelby Drive at Hickory Hill.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 01:46:17 PM
Heavy snow Shelby Drive at Hickory Hill.
Yeah and looking at Memphis interstate cams....most are getting snow covered again.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 01:48:01 PM
The wintry mix of snow and sleet (mostly sleet) has begun. It started right at 1:45pm.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 01:49:00 PM
Those are some crazy reflectivity returns in AR south of Little Rock for it being all snow.

Good to have you checking in with us, man.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 01:49:15 PM
we got five of them curt lol least

The one off the bypass in north Jackson is the only one I ever pass.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 17, 2021, 01:49:56 PM
Gotta admit, I was starting to think bust about an hour ago. But the floodgates opened over the span of about 5 minutes. At the rate it's snowing now and looking at the radar back to the SE, we are gonna get our 4" easy, IMO.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ryandourius on February 17, 2021, 01:49:59 PM
Jackson needs more than one Starbucks - badly.

We got like five now that is correct. The fastest ones imo are the ones in Kroger and by T-Mobile.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 01:50:20 PM
The one off the bypass in north Jackson is the only one I ever pass.

I used to live in Shelbyville. We sometimes joke that it is now a "two Sonic town."  ;D
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Fletcher on February 17, 2021, 01:51:09 PM
https://idrivearkansas.com

Grab the camera function and you can go to near Pine Bluff to see the squall. It
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 01:51:16 PM
In case anyone is wondering as soon as this stuff moved in the melting layer aloft completely collapsed lol. We'll see if it makes any reappearance but for right now everyone should be safely snow in the metro...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 01:53:35 PM
nothing but sleet here for 20 minutes and its already getting old...waiting on the heavy snow the spc promised lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on February 17, 2021, 02:03:31 PM
nothing but sleet here for 20 minutes and its already getting old...waiting on the heavy snow the spc promised lol

The window for our 3-5" is about 6-12 tonight.  :) ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 02:09:27 PM
The window for our 3-5" is about 6-12 tonight.  :) ::fingerscrossed::

You mean the window for 6-12" is from 3-5?

 ;D
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 02:09:59 PM
I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: micahp on February 17, 2021, 02:13:31 PM
Sleeting in Thompsons Station
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: rogerssmatt on February 17, 2021, 02:14:16 PM
Is it started snowing the smallest little flakes here in Charlotte Tennessee. I'll take it! Ha
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 02:14:27 PM
Virga here, nothing making it down yet. We have a high of 22 with a dewpoint of 16. EDIT- we have small flakes falling we have small flakes falling!!!!!::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: andyhb on February 17, 2021, 02:14:30 PM
https://twitter.com/yourfavarkie/status/1362130150591254528?s=21

Ok this pic from I-530 near Pine Bluff is ridiculous.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 02:15:07 PM
The wintry mix of snow and sleet (mostly sleet) has begun. It started right at 1:45pm.

Me right now watching the radar waiting on the precip to S L O W L Y creep northeast...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/UxREcFThpSEqk/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on February 17, 2021, 02:15:49 PM
You mean the window for 6-12" is from 3-5?

 ;D

10-4
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on February 17, 2021, 02:16:20 PM
You mean the window for 6-12" is from 3-5?

 ;D

I'm pretty easy to please, like Charles, I'll be happy with 2 inches. However, this has the look of an overperformer for somebody around here. Won't be the least bit surprised to get three or four and lose power. I'm within 15 miles or so of the area that's still largely without power from the other day. Doesn't look like we are going to get enough sun to melt the ice out of the trees. Some wet snow will do some power line damage pretty quickly.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 02:18:32 PM
Me right now watching the radar waiting on the precip to S L O W L Y creep northeast...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/UxREcFThpSEqk/giphy.gif)

Have you heard? They put up some some sort of dome over Wilson County to keep that stuff from falling.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 02:20:24 PM
Getting close to 1/4 or 1/2 vis at most along 240 south loop
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 02:21:10 PM
Snow is on its approach to Nashville. Curious to see how like it takes to get further NE
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on February 17, 2021, 02:21:37 PM
Snow and sleet has started in Lawrenceburg!!!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 02:21:43 PM
Have you heard? They put up some some sort of dome over Wilson County to keep that stuff from falling.

If the moderate to heavy designation that Norman put out verifies, I'll be happy.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 02:21:56 PM
Snow is picking up here. ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 02:24:49 PM
Still sleet here
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 02:25:08 PM
The water damages in southern states is staggering.  Sad very sad.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 02:26:13 PM
Radar looks good, Norman has us in the SPC for moderate to heavy snow...and HRRR gives us 2". Hmmm....
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 02:26:47 PM
I'm getting a report of sleet from Burns.

Maybe, we'll see what Memphis saw with the initial sleet before the column cools.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on February 17, 2021, 02:28:39 PM
Light sleet/snow Melrose/8th Ave area
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on February 17, 2021, 02:29:25 PM
Sleet in Bellevue
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 02:29:31 PM
I'm getting a report of sleet from Burns.

Maybe, we'll see what Memphis saw with the initial sleet before the column cools.

Yes, can confirm sleet to begin. Not surprised with this at all since the NAM and HRRR showed mixed precip passing through first.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 02:30:40 PM
Memphis folks got quiet again yall all went out and played? lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on February 17, 2021, 02:31:54 PM
Memphis folks got quiet again yall all went out and played? lol

About to fly the drone in it. Just waiting to see if it picks up a little bit or not
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 02:32:15 PM
Yes, can confirm sleet to begin. Not surprised with this at all since the NAM and HRRR showed mixed precip passing through first.

Yeah, I don't mind the sleet to start...just want to see it start. With dry air you never know where the loser line will stall.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 17, 2021, 02:33:24 PM
Starting to think this is going to outperform Monday. Heavy snow in Collierville.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 02:35:12 PM
Yeah, I don't mind the sleet to start...just want to see it start. With dry air you never know where the loser line will stall.

Is that 2
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 02:35:25 PM
Still steady light snow in Montgomery County, it's all snow. ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 02:36:37 PM
Is that 2
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: PhilliesFan on February 17, 2021, 02:37:03 PM
Sleet/Snow mix near Lenox Village
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 02:37:53 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EudJhzQXcAYg5lB?format=png&name=small)

This looks like bad stuff shaping up
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 02:38:56 PM
sleet for 50 minutes now, not heavy though at all, thinking once the heavy returns get my way soon it will flip over
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 02:40:08 PM
if everything in ms and louisiana gets here and be mostly snow i think 5+ will be common in a lot of areas
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 02:41:18 PM
So downtown Nashville is seeing precip?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 02:42:36 PM
sleet for 50 minutes now, not heavy though at all, thinking once the heavy returns get my way soon it will flip over

Light sleet for 1 hr here
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 02:42:51 PM
Looking at returns that a lot of precip to come
Title: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: tncolts on February 17, 2021, 02:43:35 PM
Sleet snow mix right now, not too heavy yet here in lewis county
As of 3 min ago... it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 02:46:35 PM
Quote
..A SEVERE SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT CLEVELAND...NORTHWESTERN DESHA 
 
SOUTHERN GRANT...DALLAS...NORTHEASTERN DREW...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON... 
LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN HOT SPRING AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS 
COUNTIES... 
 
AT 238 PM CST, A SEVERE SNOW SQUALL WAS LOCATED IN A REGION FROM   
MALVERN TO SHERIDAN TO PINE BLUFF TO STAR CITY TO FORDYCETO WESTERN   
DALLAS COUNTY. 
 
. THIS AREA OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. 
 
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... 
PINE BLUFF, DUMAS, SHERIDAN, FORDYCE, STAR CITY, RISON, ROHWER, WHITE 
HALL, GOULD, LEOLA, GRADY, KINGSLAND, SPARKMAN, MITCHELLVILLE, 
CARTHAGE, WATSON, WINCHESTER, WHITEFIELD, JENKINS FERRY STATE PARK 
AND LITTLE BAYOU METO PARK. 
 
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 46. 
   
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP QUICKLY TO NEAR ZERO IN THIS SEVERE SQUALL. 
 
CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS. IF   
YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE OUT ON THE ROADS IN THIS AREA...STAY PUT OR   
STAY HOME. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR ABOVE ARE MAKING   
CONDITIONS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DRIVE IN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE   
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 4 PM. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 02:48:16 PM
Light mix starting to fall in Nolensville.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mtcards on February 17, 2021, 02:48:21 PM
Dickson was seeing light snow, then changed to all sleet, now back to a mix.   Looks like the 850 dividing line is close
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 02:49:49 PM
Just started here, east of the airport, Wilson/Davidson line. Light sleet with a few flakes mixed in.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 02:49:56 PM
Taking on accumulation rather quickly now. 1
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on February 17, 2021, 02:54:28 PM
Just started here, east of the airport, Wilson/Davidson line. Light sleet with a few flakes mixed in.
Gonna say the same thing.  Light sleet but very few large fluffy flakes.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 02:56:09 PM
If we can keep keep the slop out this  , think meg have adjust totals slightly up we see here soon afternoon update
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: c_phillips on February 17, 2021, 02:57:17 PM
Sleet has changed to snow here at work in Columbia
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 02:57:46 PM
Some big flakes are trying to work their way in here.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 02:58:39 PM
Still light up this way, but it is slowly picking up a pretty steady light snow. It wasn't 15 minutes after it showed us under returns that it started making it to the ground here. Feeling much better about 2-3 possibly more. ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 17, 2021, 03:01:50 PM
More and more flakes mixing in to the sleet. Just got home from work and glad for it.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on February 17, 2021, 03:03:33 PM
Man that Pine Bluff area is just ridiculous.
Title: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 03:03:42 PM
I think most Memphis  folks hopped off to leave the office. This is may be the worst I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: RobD on February 17, 2021, 03:03:57 PM
Just started in SE Franklin. Some big flakes mixed in.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 03:05:48 PM
It's been ripping in southern Arkansas for hours. No telling what they got down there.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 03:07:13 PM
glad all my surrounding peeps north south and west of me have seen flakes alreday, i am still waiting lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 03:08:57 PM
It's been ripping in southern Arkansas for hours. No telling what they got down there.
just south i 40 corridor west tennessee looks like going be sweet spot also, heavy bands just keep setting up with heavy returns
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 03:09:30 PM
Currently we have light sleet...and isolated huge feather like snowflakes falling at random here and there. So odd to see.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: PhilliesFan on February 17, 2021, 03:10:39 PM
Super light snow here but huge flakes
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on February 17, 2021, 03:15:50 PM
We've got some quarter sized flakes mixing in Melrose
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 03:17:31 PM
50/50 snow and sleet here now.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 03:18:22 PM
Moderate snow falling in Montgomery County. ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 03:19:52 PM
50/50 snow and sleet here now.

must be nice like i say everybody east west north and south is seeing flakes LOL

I think that next HUGE slug of moisture in mississippi will be our big ticket...still say looks like 5-7 south of 40
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 03:20:18 PM
I think the snow dam is about to break here...large flakes have increased...

Let the thumpage begin...  ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 03:21:35 PM
Appears to be a very heavy band backing NW through Desoto towards Shelby
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bellatrixr on February 17, 2021, 03:22:16 PM
37211 Nippers Corner (Nashville) big snowflakes falling
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 03:23:32 PM
Now back to very light sleet. Dynamics are struggling up there. My elevation may have something to do with it, I don't know.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: c_phillips on February 17, 2021, 03:25:26 PM
Back to rain/sleet mix in Columbia.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on February 17, 2021, 03:28:50 PM
 ::drowning:: same in Lawrenceburg rain/sleet
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 03:31:07 PM
Looks like everything north of a line from Sardis to Hickory Flat is moderate to heavy snow. South of that line is bright banding associated with sleet . Or am I way off here?

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 03:31:53 PM
::drowning:: same in Lawrenceburg rain/sleet

This is what is modeled on the 18Z NAM. Sleet/mixed precipitation followed by snow.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 03:33:18 PM
This is what is modeled on the 18Z NAM. Sleet/mixed precipitation followed by snow.

I am trying to be thankful it isnt happening during the heavy moisture returns, but i know i lost a half inch of snow in the past two hours, was not expecting 2 hours of this
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 03:33:33 PM
Looks like everything north of a line from Sardis to Hickory Flat is moderate to heavy snow. South of that line is bright banding associated with sleet . Or am I way off here?

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

CC data correlates that very well
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on February 17, 2021, 03:33:55 PM
The flakes are HUGE in Mount Juliet.  Just not a lot of them yet.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 03:34:23 PM
I am trying to be thankful it isnt happening during the heavy moisture returns, but i know i lost a half inch of snow in the past two hours, was not expecting 2 hours of this

This wasn't even supposed to be happening at this time of the day, dude.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: marjl21 on February 17, 2021, 03:34:34 PM
Rates have definitely picked up here in the last 20 mins or so. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 17, 2021, 03:34:49 PM
We are 100% snow finally! Hope we can keep it that way
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Fletcher on February 17, 2021, 03:36:17 PM
Just started light snow in Murfreesboro
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 03:40:15 PM
Steady moderate snow here. Looks like we will stay on the edge of heavier returns but it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 03:41:35 PM
This wasn't even supposed to be happening at this time of the day, dude.

thanks for keeping me grounded bro !
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 03:43:53 PM
Light snow has started here!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 03:45:12 PM
The radar over Pine Bluff is absolutely incredible. 9" just reported and they may have another 4-6 to go??
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: c_phillips on February 17, 2021, 03:45:49 PM
::drowning:: same in Lawrenceburg rain/sleet

I left work and am on my way back to Lawrenceburg. 43S still in pretty good shape. More traffic than I expected though.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: andyhb on February 17, 2021, 03:46:31 PM
https://twitter.com/katvtoddyak/status/1362154805724991492?s=21
https://twitter.com/nwslittlerock/status/1362142368204541952?s=21

This is just amazing stuff.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 03:46:36 PM
it will be interesting  see those very heavy returns just north of pine bluff can find their way into southern shelby county little later ::coffee::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 03:48:37 PM
it will be interesting  see those very heavy returns just north of pine bluff can find their way into southern shelby county little later ::coffee::

I'm enjoying my near 1" per hour rates that I'm probably getting right now. Most hi-res data has that stuff weakening/translating east and not northeast as the upper level energy starts translating east with it. We'll see though lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 03:51:05 PM
A good steady moderate snow continues up this way. I like what I am seeing on the radar!!!!! ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 03:51:45 PM
Traffic on I-40 is at a standstill in Arkansas

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 03:52:04 PM
I'm enjoying my near 1" per hour rates that I'm probably getting right now. Most hi-res data has that stuff weakening/translating east and not northeast as the upper level energy starts translating east with it. We'll see though lol
if this track    keep going way its been going and  dont weaken, o boy ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 03:54:00 PM
if this track    keep going way its been going and  dont weaken, o boy ::snowman::
I am even digging the track myself Bruce! Snowing good here. ::yum:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: David on February 17, 2021, 03:54:08 PM
I didn't see this posted yet.

Quote
000
FXUS64 KOHX 172041
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
241 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Snow showers have been slowly working their way into the southwest
zones this afternoon ahead of the upper Plains trough. Radar
indicating that melting layer is around 1500-2000 ft, which is a
little lower than model soundings suggest. CAMs and even some of
the long term models continue to highlight the southwest to
northeast orientation of the heavier snow axis, especially the far
southwest/south through southern Rutherford to DeKalb Counties.
NAM/GFS and even the HRRR have hinted at strong omega values in
that region co-located with the dendritic growth zone, and with
deep moisture in that layer as well, heavy snow rates will be
possible. Q vector convergence as well as strong jet support aloft
further increases the potential for heavy snow rates over that
area also. Current forecast has around 4 to 5 inches in that
area, but should snow continue longer without freezing rain/sleet
mixing in through the evening, snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour
or greater and locally higher snowfall totals will be possible.
Similar to the previous event, freezing rain and sleet will rob
moisture from the snow totals, especially sleet, so if any sleet
and freezing rain occur with snow from 00Z-06Z, snow totals will
drop in those areas that see a mix. However, current forecast
shows the majority of the area seeing all snow this evening, with
exception to the southern Plateau where temps may climb just above
freezing around or just before midnight.

After 06Z, the upper trough axis will be approaching the MS River,
and models start bringing in a dry slot from the southwest. Its
at this point that soundings start showing some drier layers
aloft, and freezing rain may mix in with the last bit of heavy
snow as it moves off to the northeast. Moisture drops off quite a
bit at this point as well, so by sunrise Thursday, we may be
looking at freezing drizzle and light snow as the primary precip
types through the morning. Models keep QPF amounts low during the
day Thursday, and as long as the first part of the event remains
mostly snow, ice accum amounts should stay around or less than a
tenth of an inch area wide. The Winter Storm Warning does go
through 6 pm Thursday, but should the system move out faster and
the freezing drizzle/snow doesnt amount to too much during the day
Thursday, the warning may be cancelled early. Since temperatures
look to linger near freezing and another complicated low level
forecast amplifies difficulty, any additional mixing of precip
with the snow will cut into snowfall totals. Most of the snowfall
for this event will be from the late afternoon through early
morning hours just after midnight, so if any mixing occurs during
that time, snow amounts will be lowered.

Friday will be cold, but dry, and the sun may show itself by the
afternoon. Ridging will build in by Sunday, so temps will be on
the rise for the remainder of the forecast. Quick shot at rain and
a rain snow mix will move in Sunday night, but right now doesnt
look to have any impacts. Monday and Tuesday will be dry with
highs getting into the 50s for some Monday and even mid to upper
50s Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions initially, but that will not last. A winter storm
is moving in. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly with IFR
upcoming by 22Z-02Z.At that time, snow will move into the BNA MQY
and CKV areas, The amounts will be a little lighter at CKV, but
still IFR. For CSV...more of a snow and rain mix is expected. The
heaviest precip will fall between roughly 00Z and 04Z. But...light
to moderate precip will continue through much of the taf period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      28  34  19  32  14 /  90  50  10   0   0
Clarksville    24  31  15  29  10 /  90  50  10   0   0
Crossville     30  38  21  32  14 / 100  50  20  10   0
Columbia       27  34  18  32  12 /  90  50  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   27  34  18  33  13 /  90  40  10   0   0
Waverly        26  34  18  34  13 /  90  40  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday
for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De
Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-
Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-
Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-
Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 03:55:10 PM
Spitting snow at 109S/I-40E.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Beth on February 17, 2021, 03:56:41 PM
We keep alternating between sleet and snow!  Got all the neighborhood kids here. Snow is super slick from sleet and flying on their sleds!  Got a nice outside fire going and adult beverages and life is good! ❄️❄️❄️
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 03:58:37 PM
MD 111 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0111
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

   Areas affected...southern/central Arkansas...southwest through
   Middle Tennessee...and northwestern Mississippi

   Concerning...Heavy snow

   Valid 172122Z - 180115Z

   SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snow will continue across the discussion
   area for several more hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent observations suggest that the heaviest of
   snowfall in the discussion area (with rates likely exceeding 1" per
   hour) was occurring in the general vicinity of Little Rock, Pine
   Bluff, and Camden in central/southern Arkansas, with lighter, but
   still moderate snowfall observed farther northeast toward Memphis
   and Nashville in Tennessee.  The region continues to reside in a
   regime characterized by appreciable lift due to isentropic ascent,
   with strong low-level flow across central/southern Louisiana
   impinging on a shallow cold airmass.  Though the general focus of
   warm advection has begun to shift slightly to the east, additional
   ascent from a mid-level wave apparent via water vapor imagery over
   north-central Texas was also likely contributing to enhanced
   snowfall rates in the region.  This general regime should continue
   for at least several more hours (perhaps through 01-03Z or so)
   before beginning to taper off from west to east in Arkansas later
   tonight.  Beneath heavier precipitation bands, 2" per hour snowfall
   rates cannot be ruled out.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 04:00:06 PM
Radar returns in SW Arkansas just keep filling in. That line hasnt budged closer to Little Rock in hours.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 17, 2021, 04:00:35 PM
Borderline heavy snow now in OB. I'm guessing we've picked up 1.5 - 2". Another 5-6 hours of this and we are going to bust through those forecast accumulations.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ash3211 on February 17, 2021, 04:02:11 PM
Hi all....any updated maps on accumulation for the Dyersburg area? Thanks!!!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 04:04:27 PM
We keep alternating between sleet and snow!  Got all the neighborhood kids here. Snow is super slick from sleet and flying on their sleds!  Got a nice outside fire going and adult beverages and life is good! ❄️❄️❄️
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 04:04:49 PM
Snow has picked up here and radar continues to fill in north of Nashville
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 04:06:00 PM
Hi all....any updated maps on accumulation for the Dyersburg area? Thanks!!!
Just my opinion but I would say 1 to 3 inches.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on February 17, 2021, 04:09:57 PM
While y'all are going on about some sort of winter weather, I'm sitting at my firepit warm 'n cozy watching the sunset.  Yep. The sun is out here. 

Cheers to another memorable winter storm for my neighbors out west.  Enjoy and relish every moment!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 04:10:50 PM
It started snowing in Montgomery County at 2:15, we now have a half inch of new snow I just measured.  ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 04:10:56 PM
Snow has picked up here and radar continues to fill in north of Nashville

Snowing pretty good here SW of you. We saw very little sleet and transitioned pretty quickly into snow and so far it's stayed that way.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 04:12:17 PM
Snowing pretty good here SE of you. We saw very little sleet and transitioned pretty quickly into snow and so far it's stayed that way.

Thankfully up here it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 04:15:16 PM
Dry air trying to eat at the northern end of the precip shield...North sections of the metro may end up with much less. Will see if the dry air eats down into Shelby...dbZ's have come down some in last couple scans but more heavy returns coming up Desoto so we'll see if they maintain...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on February 17, 2021, 04:17:17 PM
Nothing yet here in Tullahoma and North Franklin Co area.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 04:17:32 PM
Dry air trying to eat at the northern end of the precip shield...North sections of the metro may end up with much less. Will see if the dry air eats down into Shelby...dbZ's have come down some in last couple scans but more heavy returns coming up Desoto so we'll see if they maintain...
I would think you would be good. Still moderate snow up here.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 04:19:04 PM
Dry air trying to eat at the northern end of the precip shield...North sections of the metro may end up with much less. Will see if the dry air eats down into Shelby...dbZ's have come down some in last couple scans but more heavy returns coming up Desoto so we'll see if they maintain...
HRR really doesn
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 04:19:13 PM
Just pouring big flakes here...I could take a few hours of this. Reminds me of the big 2003 storm.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 04:19:20 PM
I would think you would be good. Still moderate snow up here.
i am just seeing heavy returns being replaced by another round of heavy returns, like a recycle, the column got be saturated
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: aptrumpet on February 17, 2021, 04:19:56 PM
Beautiful moderate snow with large flakes in Mt. Juliet!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 04:21:11 PM
Desoto we need some reports of what's under those 30-40 dbZ echoes lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 04:21:46 PM
snow picking up good here , flakes steadily getting bigger, south jackson is reporting heavy snow currenetly
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 04:24:07 PM
Desoto we need some reports of what's under those 30-40 dbZ echoes lol
Hopefully I'll let you know soon. I am so close

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 04:24:57 PM
Very large flakes falling and the intensity is picking up too
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 04:25:13 PM
still just a light sleet here
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 04:27:16 PM
In an island of sleet here. Been nothing but sleet for 3 hours.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 04:27:30 PM
It's coming down at 109S/I-40E!!! No big flakes though and there doesn't appear to be any sleet mixed in. Y'all send those mPING reports!!!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: cliftown04 on February 17, 2021, 04:27:52 PM
Still sleet here in northern Wayne as well. This is going on hour four. I just wonder if and when we will transition.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mmryan on February 17, 2021, 04:28:07 PM
It started in Smyrna as all snow for 15 minutes, Ken was snow and sleet. Now it's all rain with a tiny bit of sleet mixing in. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 04:29:09 PM
Desoto we need some reports of what's under those 30-40 dbZ echoes lol

Heavy snow Pleasant Hill near Goodman in OB. I've picked about 3" so far.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: HendersonvilleWx on February 17, 2021, 04:29:20 PM
Very healthy moderate snowfall here in East Hendersonville!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 17, 2021, 04:30:35 PM
Floodgates have opened - absolutely pouring at Craft and Goodman Rd - as heavy as it was on Monday minus the wind.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: RobD on February 17, 2021, 04:30:41 PM
Even though the radar says otherwise, back to nothing in SE Franklin.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 04:32:38 PM
Still sleet here in northern Wayne as well. This is going on hour four. I just wonder if and when we will transition.

quite diasapointing it's like we are in some sort of a notch or something

if we don't changeover by 6pm when those heavy returns arrive idk if we ever will
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on February 17, 2021, 04:34:06 PM
Flurries started in Lascassas about an hour ago.  We seem to be on the far eastern edge of the precipitation at the moment and have a light mix of tiny snow flakes and sleet pellets.  There is already a very thin coating on all elevated surfaces.  The temperature out here is 28F.

Hopefully we can get some good flakeage before dark.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on February 17, 2021, 04:34:06 PM
Here in Hermitage, we had sleet for about 15-20 minutes, then all snow. Huge flakes, nickel to quarter size! They look like goose down falling...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 04:34:38 PM
Heavy snow near Old Towne Olive Branch

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 04:35:03 PM
[attachimg=1]It is DUMPING it here!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: marjl21 on February 17, 2021, 04:35:10 PM
Heaviest rates all day here. Easily 1
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 04:35:15 PM
Sleet for 3 hours now.

....
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: SouthavenSpotter on February 17, 2021, 04:37:00 PM
Snow insanity at 51/church. It's happening
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 04:37:49 PM
Weird we went back to a sleet/snow mix here for a 15 minute period now we start the process over...huge flakes mix in and back to moderate snow.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 04:41:19 PM
Dumping here now
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: HayleyH on February 17, 2021, 04:41:49 PM
Coming down hard in downtown Memphis. This Poplar going westbound from LeBonheur
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: marjl21 on February 17, 2021, 04:42:17 PM
This storm seems like it wants to over-preform...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 04:42:30 PM
kevin you got perhaps the heaviest band u have seen so far heading your way man out of Desoto county
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 04:43:39 PM
This storm seems like it wants to over-preform...
that maybe a understatement ... its picking up here by the minute
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 04:44:01 PM
does anybody have an accurate snow sleet line? it seems very jagged
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 17, 2021, 04:45:57 PM
Back to sleet here. Sleet fest 2021 II
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 04:46:07 PM
We have went to sleet for the moment, with a few flakes mixed in. First time we have went to sleet. Changed over about 5-10 minutes ago. ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on February 17, 2021, 04:46:56 PM
We have transitioned to very small sleet now.  I thought the precipitation had stopped until I stepped outside and got pelted.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 04:47:17 PM
Back to sleet here. Sleet fest 2021 II

even when its the perfect setup we get the shaft so far, i am not checking again until 6pm
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2021, 04:47:45 PM
does anybody have an accurate snow sleet line? it seems very jagged

There's not a transition line, it's point-specific atmospheric profiles that are determining p-type.  Some areas are warmer, more saturated/less saturated, etc. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 04:48:07 PM
Looks like I'm about to get dry-slotted of course. Intensity has died down and it looks like sleet is mixing in.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2021, 04:49:23 PM
Looks like I'm about to get dry-slotted of course. Intensity has died down and it looks like sleet is mixing in.

(Attachment Link)

Umm...look back to the southwest.  You're not getting dry-slotted.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 04:51:01 PM
Well dry slot and some frz rain for win in Boro. Lol.  Winter don
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on February 17, 2021, 04:51:05 PM
Per the HRRR, the Blue Ridge area of Virginia seems to be a snow lover's paradise.  Whether a storm like this comes up from their southwest with a warm slug of air, or up to their east as a Nor' Easter, they get dumped on.  Cold air damming for the win for them.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 17, 2021, 04:52:00 PM
that maybe a understatement ... its picking up here by the minute
Closing in on 4inches already in jonesboro. I think between 5-6 before all said and done
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 04:53:21 PM
Umm...look back to the southwest.  You're not getting dry-slotted.

I see it but looks like a lot of it's going to end up moving NW of me.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 04:54:04 PM
Closing in on 4inches already in jonesboro. I think between 5-6 before all said and done
i am approaching 2 inches here now golf... southern madison county is getting pounded, its headed this way
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 04:54:41 PM
Dumping here now

Likewise- just finished out a sled run with the kids at Mount Trashmore.  It was crowded but everyone is soaked from head to toe due to what's falling from the sky. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 04:55:22 PM
I see it but looks like a lot of it's going to end up moving NW of me.

You looking at the stuff down in Florence, AL? The entire system is moving E
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 04:56:54 PM
Totals so far Shelby...
Quote
  2 SW CORDOVA            1.0   430 PM  2/17  OFFICIAL NWS OBS         
  BARTLETT                0.9   445 PM  2/17  TRAINED SPOTTER         
  2 SSW SOUTHEAST MEMP    0.5   211 PM  2/17  OFFICIAL NWS OBS 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 04:57:02 PM
Back to snow here now, starting to get some bigger flakes. 90 percent snow for sure. ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 04:57:30 PM
MEG may need to do a ballon launch, the lower level jet is kicking in right now its enhancing the precip
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 04:58:36 PM
You looking at the stuff down in Florence, AL? The entire system is moving E

Storm seems to be re-orienting itself up here on the eastern edge, even down in NE/MS you can see the radar returns starting to really fill in and get going.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 04:59:06 PM
You looking at the stuff down in Florence, AL? The entire system is moving E

Looks more northeast to me but I'm no expert. I want those heavy returns over near Dickson!!!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 04:59:09 PM
Totals so far Shelby...

It's not official but I had about an inch and a quarter over the span from 3:15 to 4:30.  I cleared a spot of off on a flat surface before going sledding so I could see. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 05:00:26 PM
Storm seems to be re-orienting itself up here on the eastern edge, even down in NE/MS you can see the radar returns starting to really fill in and get going.
seems to be more of a north push to this, little rock still reporting moderate snow, precip been west of them last two hours hardly moving east on the backside
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 05:00:41 PM
Looks more northeast to me but I'm no expert. I want those heavy returns over near Dickson!!!

Yes the individual waves of precip are moving NE, but the overall system is moving eastward so you
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 05:02:17 PM
From heavy snow, to sleet, to sleet and rain. Interesting system so far. I think it may have some tricks up its sleeve tonight.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 05:03:13 PM
Yes the individual waves of precip are moving NE, but the overall system is moving eastward so you
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 05:03:21 PM
From heavy snow, to sleet, to sleet and rain. Interesting system so far. I think it may have some tricks up its sleeve tonight.

Light sleet for 3 and a half hours.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 05:04:08 PM
Currently no precip falling.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 05:05:43 PM
1-2 hours ago, it was pouring snow here with nice big fluffy flakes.

It's just sort of a light (freezing?) rain now.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Volduff64 on February 17, 2021, 05:08:09 PM
Dickson is getting heavy sleet currently for those jealous of those returns.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 05:08:25 PM
1-2 hours ago, it was pouring snow here with nice big fluffy flakes.

It's just sort of a light (freezing?) rain now.

Ready for those lifting dynamics and moderate to heavy snow to start....
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 05:09:19 PM
Ready for those lifting dynamics and moderate to heavy snow to start....
fixing to get them dog... the lower level jet is enhancing this precip shield
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 05:18:14 PM
fixing to get them dog... the lower level jet is enhancing this precip shield

Hope so, Old Man Winter gave me a taste with 30 minutes of heavy snow and then poof it went.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 05:19:33 PM
Light sleet at I-40E/109S.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 05:20:08 PM
3/4
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 05:21:17 PM
Really didn't expect to see a freezing drizzle. Starting to test my patience.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on February 17, 2021, 05:21:33 PM
The heavier DBZ returns for me at least are just bigger flakes.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 05:21:36 PM
OHX has found a layer of warm air just above the surface with the 00z sounding.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 05:22:20 PM
OHX has found a layer of warm air just above the surface with the 00z sounding.

Yep, starting to get concerned this may be another sleet storm which would just be terrible
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: InMemphis on February 17, 2021, 05:24:13 PM
Heavy snow taking place downtown. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 05:25:08 PM
Ugh.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 05:25:15 PM
Yep, starting to get concerned this may be another sleet storm which would just be terrible

Seems Memphis had to overcome this when they started out. We'll see. Have some better returns coming out of Columbia/Spring Hill..lets see what happens when we get under heavier returns.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Volduff64 on February 17, 2021, 05:26:13 PM
OHX has found a layer of warm air just above the surface with the 00z sounding.

Do we have any profiles of the column?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: marjl21 on February 17, 2021, 05:27:24 PM
Just measured just over 2" of fresh powder here.  We are definitely SN+ right now.  Just ripping.  Might be coming down more than the heaviest rates from Monday.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 05:27:40 PM
If these returns are as heavy as they look shouldn't that precip cool the warm layer and overtake it eventually?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Volduff64 on February 17, 2021, 05:27:50 PM
Also does anyone have the coefficient so we can see the actual snow sleet line?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 05:28:01 PM
Latest HRR actually wants to change Memphis for sleet for an hour or so. Heavy DBZ
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 05:28:06 PM
OHX has found a layer of warm air just above the surface with the 00z sounding.

Doesn't that figure... this is familiar.

But, yeah, let's see what happens when better dynamics move in this evening.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 05:29:04 PM
Snow insanity at 51/church. It's happening

Huge snow fall rates.... close to 4" and still pouring.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 05:29:40 PM
Latest HRR actually wants to change Memphis for sleet for an hour or so. Heavy DBZ
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 05:29:58 PM
I give up. I can't do winter anymore.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 05:30:07 PM
Doesn't that figure... this is familiar.

But, yeah, let's see what happens when better dynamics move in this evening.

It really is like threading a needle to get snow here...there is always something inhibiting it. Almost hard to believe.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on February 17, 2021, 05:31:58 PM
We  have gone over to light freezing rain here.  I am getting very concerned that another ice storm is immanent tonight southeast of Nashville.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 05:33:47 PM
https://youtu.be/Smh2w8Bb7i4

IMBY
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 05:34:40 PM
I think we may have been pulling in some of the drier air from our SE for a time? Possibly? I figured once we went to heavy snow it would be all good but you could see the SE movement of the precip shield start heading back NW. Hopefully it's working itself out. Better returns should be inbound soon.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: skidude901 on February 17, 2021, 05:35:31 PM
Heavy snow falling in S. Collierville. A beautiful sight!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 05:38:10 PM
About an inch here. Still moderate snow. It may over - perform  my expectations up this way.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 05:39:07 PM
Lafayette has an inch of snow and I had 3/4
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 05:39:42 PM
Well the way things have gone for last several years.  I will not be surprised to be in the screw zone again.  Right now frz rain.  Smdh.  Well winters days is over in less than a week.  This time next week 60!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 05:40:36 PM
Lafayette has an inch of snow and I had 3/4
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 05:40:45 PM
has anyone else notice the precip just keeps back building in southeast arkansas, you can see that also on reflective satellite imagery ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 17, 2021, 05:40:56 PM
It is absolutely pouring in OB right now - heaviest of the day - we are about an hour and 15 minutes into heavy snow. And it's a perfect powder. It's **** near a religious experience. Best snow of my life - hands down.

I hope it marches across the whole state. We all deserve it.

Hard to capture exactly how hard it's coming down in pictures. Here are two from about an hour ago.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on February 17, 2021, 05:41:35 PM
It is just ripping here in Hernando. Huge flakes. Just measured 3
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 05:42:45 PM
It has been sleeting alot the last hour along with snow at times. But I got between a half and three quarters of a inch right now. The radar looks good to me heavier returns moving in may get us back to all snow soon hopefully. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: HayleyH on February 17, 2021, 05:43:47 PM
This is the heaviest snow rate I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 17, 2021, 05:43:54 PM
Afraid to say anything because last time I did we went back to sleet, but atm we are 100% moderate to even what I consider heavy snow at times.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Huntermc18 on February 17, 2021, 05:44:31 PM
Should Meg not up their totals for MEM soon? It
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 05:46:12 PM
Afraid to say anything because last time I did we went back to sleet, but atm we are 100% moderate to even what I consider heavy snow at times.

Ok- that's potentially encouraging news for us downstream.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 05:47:38 PM
We are still predominantly sleet here but I do see flakes starting to mix in again.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 05:47:47 PM
Well it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 05:47:47 PM
Warm nose is about to reach it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 05:48:31 PM
It's amazing how fast snow accumulates when it falls on old snow. lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 05:48:54 PM
Airport is up to 2.3" as of 5 PM...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 05:49:42 PM
Ok- that's potentially encouraging news for us downstream.

We are back to 75% sleet and 25% snow mix...hopefully it gets better from there. No more freezing drizzle.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 05:50:31 PM
I saw an unofficial report that they had shut down I40 from Memphis to Arkansas. Is that true ?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 05:51:29 PM
With the threat of sleet close by I went ahead and measured and we have 1
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: cloudcrash619 on February 17, 2021, 05:51:39 PM
What an awesome look for Memphis this evening. Even KMEM is reporting moderate snow now!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 05:53:28 PM
for the folks to the north worried about missing out on the good stuff, kpah     out of paducah just pulled trigger on a winter storm warning also
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 05:55:16 PM
Airport is up to 2.3" as of 5 PM...
They should easily be over 3" by now. SMDH
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on February 17, 2021, 05:55:24 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210217/54e021d98aaf68b955a793fe7d82bcd7.jpg)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 05:56:41 PM
They should easily be over 3" by now. SMDH

Keep in mind it's the airport so the usual disclaimer lol. Also it was an hour ago for that report before it really started ripping there. I'm guessing by now they actually are at or above 3. At least they should be
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 05:57:00 PM
Back to snow here in Montgomery County, starting to come down good. ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 05:57:46 PM
Quote
SNINCR 1/3

There's you're confirmation in the latest MEM metar...1" of snow the last hour for the 3" total...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 06:00:22 PM
Measured 4.25" of new snow so far

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 06:02:26 PM
The 22Z HRRR shows snow will continue another 6 hours ending at Midnight.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on February 17, 2021, 06:03:07 PM
Switching back to snow in South Nashville.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 06:03:32 PM
These mixed systems are just torture. That early heavy snow for 30 minutes was just a cruel tease.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: SouthavenSpotter on February 17, 2021, 06:04:52 PM
5 inches on the nose here just west of 55 on church. Never had any sleet today. Still angrily coming down.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 17, 2021, 06:09:08 PM
The 22Z HRRR shows snow will continue another 6 hours ending at Midnight.

We'll be pushing double digits if that's the case.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matt on February 17, 2021, 06:17:02 PM
Some big fatties are really mixing in now here. Started as all snow, went to sleet for about an hour and now back to snow
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 06:17:11 PM
It
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 06:18:14 PM
All snow here off Almaville.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mmryan on February 17, 2021, 06:19:15 PM
Well it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 06:20:13 PM
All snow here now.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 06:20:18 PM
KMEG (NWS office at the Agricenter) was up to 2.0" as of 5:50 PM
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 17, 2021, 06:20:29 PM
Still a moderate snow falling. Looking south and west some really good returns coming this way. Still nervous about changing back.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 06:20:45 PM
All snow here off Almaville.

Back to mostly snow here as well. Still here a little sleet but predominantly snow.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 06:29:24 PM
Little Rock is just showing off at this point.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 06:29:45 PM
Pouring down SNOW here in Montgomery County!!!! EDIT- Just measured again and we are just shy of a inch of new snow with heavy snow falling. ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on February 17, 2021, 06:34:03 PM
Pretty steady snow in my direction.  If this continues plus a morning event I feel confident I can get about 3-4 inches out of it. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on February 17, 2021, 06:36:06 PM
Finally started here, all snow at the moment. The Columbus, MS radar looks great.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 06:44:35 PM
Quote
 
/MESOSCALE UPDATE/ 
 
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE MID-SOUTH THIS   
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP   
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS NOTED ON THE   
WATER VAPOR LOOP AS FROM THE OH VALLEY BACK AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS   
THE ARKLATEX. ALOFT, A STRONG, 160+ KT POLAR JET HAS DEVELOPED AND 
THE MID-SOUTH REMAINS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION, A   
FAVORABLE AREA FOR ENHANCED LIFT. THIS IS COLOCATED WITH AN AREA   
OF 700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND CONVECTIVE SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY,   
RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS   
IMPLIES A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SNOW BANDS. 
 
A HEAVY SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST AR.   
THE SNOW BAND IS PRODUCING SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR WITH   
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. DUAL POL ANALYSIS   
INDICATES MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM CLARKSDALE TO NEAR OXFORD, BUT 
A LOW MELTING LAYER IS PROBABLY OVERSHOOTING MIXED PRECIP CLOSER   
TO MEMPHIS. THE INITIAL PRECIP TYPES WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET WITH   
ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM THE 4-6" SWATH FROM   
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER   
SOUTHEAST. 
 
WE'RE CONTINUING TO WATCH A DRY SLOT APPROACHING FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AXIS.   
THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT   
AS THE CLOUD LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS DEPLETED OF 
ICE CRYSTALS. THE RESULTING PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO MORE   
LIGHT SNOW (FLURRY TYPE ACTIVITY) WITH SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING   
DRIZZLE. WE DON'T ANTICIPATE A LOT OF PROBLEMS FROM THIS DRIZZLE,   
BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. 

Update from MEG. No change to forecast amounts...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 06:45:55 PM
CC data does indicate a transition to sleet may be approaching Desoto CO (possibly Shelby too) from the WSW over the next hour....
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 06:47:19 PM
Snow coming down nicely... rooftops have a fresh coating.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on February 17, 2021, 06:48:06 PM
CC data does indicate a transition to sleet may be approaching Desoto CO (possibly Shelby too) from the WSW over the next hour....

Kevin always keeping everyone level headed.

Congrats everyone. We knew something like this week would happen once I left TN.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matt on February 17, 2021, 06:48:09 PM
Officially all snow, and it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 06:48:32 PM
Just saw a reporter for channel 3 in Memphis. He was in Southaven and it was ripping. Looked like several inches.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 06:48:41 PM
All snow! We are up to 1.5
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 06:50:08 PM
Alright- I'm feeling better about things.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 06:51:14 PM
I will say there's brightbanding lining up west of 65... not sure if that's sleet or really heavy snow. Hoping for the latter.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Tamlin on February 17, 2021, 06:53:20 PM
Snow is as heavy as it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 06:54:07 PM
Finally got some really nice, moderate snow coming down.

As soon as the sun set, the snow commenced.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 06:57:04 PM
Quote
SNINCR 1/4

Another inch the last hour at KMEM
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 17, 2021, 06:58:34 PM
Maybe the biggest flakes I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 07:00:38 PM
The flakes are huge and are clearly adding up fast and represent the high returns on NQA. Just gotta watch that transition zone this may try to change over to sleet here soon....
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 07:02:13 PM
Some serious dbz
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 07:04:54 PM
Coming down good still, that is a real strong looking cell heading toward Jackson. Bruce, I know you are licking your chops!!!! ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: cbrentv318 on February 17, 2021, 07:05:31 PM
Light snow and freezing rain in Christiana 27
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 07:07:49 PM
Some serious dbz
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 07:09:50 PM
Another inch the last hour at KMEM
I believe KMEM could reach 6"? Areas in Desoto will surpass that total.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 07:10:25 PM
I'm getting HUGE Flakes here now.  Sometimes, half dollar size. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
I bet we a lot closer to 5 feet than they thought we would get.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Flash on February 17, 2021, 07:11:58 PM
All snow in the Bluff ever since the sun set. Tips of the grass about to go under. Working a time lapse overnight with some of kids
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 07:12:52 PM
All snow here on the outskirts of Lebanon/Mt Juliet but the flakes are definitely not big.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: davisjs on February 17, 2021, 07:14:30 PM
Snow pouring with huge flakes in Spring Hill!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on February 17, 2021, 07:14:38 PM
Very light sleet rain mix here, but temps are soaring at 39 degrees.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on February 17, 2021, 07:16:45 PM
Glad that Dave Brown finally turned off that snow dome.  Measured 2 inches about two hours ago in Collerville and guessing that we are easly over 4 now. Will measure again at 10PM
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 07:17:14 PM
Some of the heaviest returns are starting to weaken a bit downstream....so I think the insane rates may come to an end within the next hour
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 07:22:51 PM
CC is really decreasing on the backedge of the heavy returns moving in from the SW...wonder as MEG alluded to...if some of that might not be sleet but could be freezing drizzle etc
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 07:23:48 PM
Returns are intensifying in western Middle TN.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: TNHunter on February 17, 2021, 07:24:34 PM
Been a hellauva snow event here
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 17, 2021, 07:25:24 PM
Returns are intensifying in western Middle TN.
Pouring snow here atm.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 17, 2021, 07:33:30 PM
Have added an inch in around 45 minutes. 5
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 07:34:11 PM
Looks like the CC line is crossing 55 in Desoto now. If yall have any kind of ptype changes report back
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matt on February 17, 2021, 07:36:05 PM
I feel like in general the returns are getting stronger as they push into middle Tennessee. Could be a surprise event for a lucky few!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 07:39:19 PM
Some of the heaviest returns are starting to weaken a bit downstream....so I think the insane rates may come to an end within the next hour
Or.... maybe they are just pulsing and going to enter an environment of increased forcing

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 07:39:33 PM
Have added an inch in around 45 minutes. 5
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 07:40:08 PM
Hardest snow of the day here. It is pouring.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 07:41:28 PM
Looks like the CC line is crossing 55 in Desoto now. If yall have any kind of ptype changes report back
Kevin, are you not impressed?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2021, 07:43:49 PM
Safe to say that dry air really wasn't a problem for Memphis?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 17, 2021, 07:44:05 PM
Are you in Collierville?

Yes. Sorry. About 3 miles north of the state line.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 07:45:50 PM
Kevin, are you not impressed?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Not sure what that has to do with the CC line position but sure!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: skidude901 on February 17, 2021, 07:48:11 PM
I just measured 8
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 07:48:45 PM
I'm at 6.4" as of 7:45

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 07:50:39 PM
Kevin, are you not impressed?

I hope to be impressed...need the rates to pickup
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 07:50:52 PM
I just measured 8
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 07:51:43 PM
KMEM now reporting SNPL
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 07:52:00 PM
Not sure what that has to do with the CC line position but sure!
Cool... I just wanted you to appreciate it, man. I know you're watching it with your all of your meteorological knowledge but I just hope you can step back from the science and see it with the eyes of a kid once again.  This is the kind of thing that has alluded us for so long and.... No matter when it ends.... We've definitely won this winter!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 07:52:09 PM
Up to 2
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 07:52:43 PM
Woo hoo!

That is all...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 07:57:06 PM
Quote
SNINCR 1/5

Another inch...

Probably about at the end of the inch per hour rates though especially now that it is a snow/sleet mix
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 07:58:34 PM
Another inch...

Probably about at the end of the inch per hour rates though especially now that it is a snow/sleet mix
If we can just get 1 more there

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2021, 07:59:59 PM
Woo hoo!

That is all...

You know when TS gets wild, we on one.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on February 17, 2021, 08:00:08 PM
50/50 snow sleet here. Rates have finally backed way off.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on February 17, 2021, 08:03:20 PM
Real bona fide snow flakes. Huge and beautiful. Finally, even if it switches to rain. Finally saw some!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 08:03:27 PM
Still sleet here. Sleet for hours.

...


Just kidding  ;D

It switched over at sunset. Rates have been moderate since. I wouldn't say heavier than .75" per hour. Can't complain!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 08:03:36 PM
You know when TS gets wild, we on one.

You all snow down there?
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on February 17, 2021, 08:04:56 PM
Fianlly real bona fide huge beautiful snowflakes. Even if it does switch to rain.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Andy on February 17, 2021, 08:06:53 PM
All snow since the onset here in Smithville... hoping to see some big fat flakes!!!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on February 17, 2021, 08:11:07 PM
It's DUMPING!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 08:11:36 PM
Just pouring down here, I have to believe we are at 2 inches. I will measure in a little bit. Keep that moisture pumping!!!! ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: marjl21 on February 17, 2021, 08:12:51 PM
Just measured right at 6" here.  Still all snow.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 08:14:13 PM
Just measured an average of close to 5" here. It's a slightly sheltered location so it may be a bit low but probably is pretty good....
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on February 17, 2021, 08:17:41 PM
We transitioned abruptly to all snow about an hour ago.  It is now falling like rain... tiny flakes, but wow.  We have already picked about 1/4 inch. 

For now we are an ice-free zone!!   ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Brad on February 17, 2021, 08:18:49 PM
We
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 08:24:15 PM
We now have a solid 2 inches working on 3. Keep the moisture pumping!!!! ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 08:25:29 PM
Now we're talking....rates picking up...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 08:31:23 PM
Now we're talking....rates picking up...

And heavier rates pushing NE from Florence and Lawrenceburg too!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 17, 2021, 08:32:34 PM
A little over 2
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: bugalou on February 17, 2021, 08:35:35 PM
We did pretty well down here.  Maybe 5?  Maybe a little more. Wasn't able to properly measure as I was a little more busy today. Got more with this storm than the last that's for sure.  It's still snowing here but looks to be ramping down unless we get some more of that radarless phantom snow.

Sent from my GM1917 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: vanster67 on February 17, 2021, 08:37:05 PM
finally snowing here in Monterey.  yes
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Flash on February 17, 2021, 08:43:24 PM
Working on about 1.75-2" of fresh snow since the turnover.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 08:48:43 PM
Big flakes falling here now, probably approaching 3 inches now. The last 30 minutes has been some heavy snowfall. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on February 17, 2021, 08:49:12 PM
The radar looks amazing!!!!!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 08:49:36 PM
Heaviest snow of the night in Primm Springs. We have more than 2" now, maybe nearing 2.5".
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 08:50:07 PM
The power is flickering.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 08:50:16 PM
2.75
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on February 17, 2021, 08:50:41 PM
The power is flickering.

UH OH!  Not here in the middle of Mount Juliet.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2021, 08:51:17 PM
We're finally getting flocked.  Such beauty to behold.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 17, 2021, 08:52:31 PM
The storm seems to be winding down now... I recorded nearly 6"... Here are some photos...

(https://i.imgur.com/poV3Aeq.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/0DsWSl0.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/IA2HTri.jpg)

 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on February 17, 2021, 08:52:49 PM
Is it still expected to stop in the Nashville area by around 1:00 AM?  It sure looks like there is still a lot to come from looking at the radar.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 08:55:13 PM
Will see if any of that stuff from Little Rock makes it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on February 17, 2021, 09:01:29 PM
We have steady snow now with pea-sized flakes.  About 1/2 inch has accumulated so far.   Old Man Winter decided to give us jazz-hands as he walks off stage.  ;D
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on February 17, 2021, 09:02:04 PM
Moderate sleet with just a few flakes here now.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 09:03:45 PM
Wow it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 09:06:39 PM
The snow is really starting to pile up here. We are approaching 3 inches pretty fast. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 09:09:12 PM
Getting the heavier rates again....quite impressive when it picks up.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 09:15:28 PM
Over  5 inches now ...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 09:17:43 PM
Some very heavy returns now heading toward s Madison county
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 09:18:47 PM
3 distinct waves of intense rates pushing this way!

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 17, 2021, 09:21:21 PM
After this evening, I can go happy in to spring. Got the kids to bed, poured a little bourbon, and took a stroll down the street in a heavy snowfall to take in the silent beauty. It's what I needed.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 09:43:42 PM
This snow is deeply satisfying! I just measured over 2 inches of new snow this evening.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 17, 2021, 09:43:55 PM
The storm seems to be winding down now... I recorded nearly 6"... Here are some photos...

(https://i.imgur.com/poV3Aeq.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/0DsWSl0.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/IA2HTri.jpg)
It's not even close to winding down ::pondering::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Flash on February 17, 2021, 09:48:26 PM
Pushing 3". Looks like OHX put out a solid call on this one.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Flash on February 17, 2021, 09:49:34 PM
3 distinct waves of intense rates pushing this way!

(Attachment Link)

I can attest those waves have been quite satisfying out this way.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 17, 2021, 09:52:17 PM
It's not even close to winding down ::pondering::

There may be a little more overnight and maybe the brief round in the morning but for immediate Memphis metro it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 09:52:39 PM
This snow is deeply satisfying! I just measured over 2 inches of new snow this evening.

Same it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 09:54:30 PM
Just stuck a board down on a flat but slight sheltered location.... Snow depth 10 inches? 


If I was dressed, I'd find some good open measurement spots but the place I took wasn't prone to drifting.  I have a monster drift like a foot over the bottom of the window in one corner of my house (a corner that opens to the northeast)


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 09:58:03 PM
3
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 10:00:50 PM
Just went for a walk around my complex. Amazing. Tranquility and the comforting sound of crunching beneath my feet. We've got a solid 2 inches. If this keeps I wouldn't be surprised if we're at a solid 5-6" by the time it's all said and done.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 10:04:17 PM


There may be a little more overnight and maybe the brief round in the morning but for immediate Memphis metro it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on February 17, 2021, 10:06:11 PM
Huntsville looks to be getting absolutely plastered. Super heavy returns for 2 hours now with precipitation depiction showing snow.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 17, 2021, 10:09:17 PM
This seems to be the rare winter storm where everyone in middle TN is going to end up getting some accumulation! Looking like everyone will get at least an inch of snow before all is said and done
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on February 17, 2021, 10:10:01 PM
That dry slot is moving fast now...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ryandourius on February 17, 2021, 10:11:05 PM
We got another decent snow here. I would say another 4-5 inches so far and still going. I really want this to melt and go away though.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Weatherdogg on February 17, 2021, 10:20:05 PM
Hi y'all! I decided to come out of lurking for this one. I just measured between 4 and 5 inches of snow in my yard (about 6-8 measurements in different spots). The snow is still falling quite hard as I speak (10 p.m.); I don't know how deep it will be in the morning (unless it rains and destroys it all, of course). This was after the Sunday to Tuesday mainly ice accumulation event that left my house with icicles up to 16 inches long all around. And I thought that Southern Middle Tennessee was gonna miss out...this is the heaviest fall here since 2011 (I think-faulty memory), when we got close to 9 inches here in Lincoln County.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 10:22:59 PM
It
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 10:27:37 PM
Well here is to the west TN and MS peeps
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on February 17, 2021, 10:32:32 PM
This is insane! Constant huge flakes, just not letting up. At least 4
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 10:37:58 PM
Just now going over 6 inches here now. Slowing down finally . 10 inches combined this week. Im ready for spring now lol
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 10:42:08 PM
I now have 3 inches in Nolensville.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 10:42:49 PM
Memphis area peeps- Don't forget to measure in the biggest drift you find.  Video it.  Send to your Nashville non-weather friends.



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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 10:44:23 PM
3.3 inches on my last measurement for tonight. I will get a final in the morning. I have a total of 5.2 inches of snow total on the ground with 1.25 inches of frozen sleet underneath for the week total. ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 10:47:16 PM
According to a questionable FB post, a dock has collapsed over at Elm Hill Marina near Sam's Sport Grill due to the weight of the ice and snow. At least 12 have had to be rescued and there are 4 currently trapped.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 10:47:31 PM
I put a bowl out that is 5
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 10:49:33 PM
According to a questionable FB post, a dock has collapsed over at Elm Hill Marina near Sam's Sport Grill due to the weight of the ice and snow. At least 12 have had to be rescued and there are 4 currently trapped.

There is a lot of snow on my roof.  Honestly don
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: tls37075 on February 17, 2021, 10:51:32 PM
According to a questionable FB post, a dock has collapsed over at Elm Hill Marina near Sam's Sport Grill due to the weight of the ice and snow. At least 12 have had to be rescued and there are 4 currently trapped.

Here's the story..
https://www.newschannel5.com/news/nfd-rescue-underway-after-boat-dock-roof-collapses-at-blue-turtle-bay-marina

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on February 17, 2021, 10:51:36 PM
...

Winter my finger is put away.  Thank you for the memories I will make tomorrow sledding!
Matthew has put away his finger.  Winter, you are officially forgiven.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2021, 10:53:47 PM
Turned over to ZR here.  It was nice while it lasted.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 11:00:00 PM
According to a questionable FB post, a dock has collapsed over at Elm Hill Marina near Sam's Sport Grill due to the weight of the ice and snow. At least 12 have had to be rescued and there are 4 currently trapped.

This is a true report.  I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 17, 2021, 11:00:23 PM
Turned over to ZR here.  It was nice while it lasted.
Eric.... Don't feel bad, We all need some 850 work in the off-season. 

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on February 17, 2021, 11:00:29 PM
Quarter-sized flakes are falling like rain.  I haven't seen anything like this since I experienced thundersnow back in the late 1980s.  In Nashville.  In April.  ::faint::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on February 17, 2021, 11:05:52 PM
Got about a trace of IP that fell with temps around 34. Dropped to 33 and it changed to pure cold rain. I really need a new hobby. Between this horrible winter and the tornado back in Spring, I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Fletcher on February 17, 2021, 11:09:27 PM
Just measured 5 to 5 1/2 inches on various flat surfaces here in Murfreesboro...winning! :)
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on February 17, 2021, 11:16:34 PM
Memphis area peeps- Don't forget to measure in the biggest drift you find.  Video it.  Send to your Nashville non-weather friends.



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

If that fails just cut off 4 inches from the bottom of the ruler then measure
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Heisman21 on February 17, 2021, 11:20:22 PM
Over 4" here in Gordonsville. Been snow the entire the time. Snowing harder now than it has all night. Huge flakes.
Title: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on February 17, 2021, 11:20:24 PM
Pretty amazing...Little Rock has a combined 16 inches on the ground currently from both storms. My best measure here is about 11 total (5 from the last and 6 from today) but that
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 11:26:25 PM
I had 6.4" at 6:45. Not long after that we started getting a mix of sleet & snow before precip began to wind down. Just checked a few spots before I call it a day and now have 7.2 at 11:25

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2021, 11:28:43 PM
With the dry slot drawing this to a close for the most part here, I
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on February 17, 2021, 11:32:26 PM
We have just shy of 4 inches here in Lascassas... maybe a bit more away from the house.

... and just like that, the snow stops.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on February 17, 2021, 11:36:46 PM
Pretty amazing...Little Rock has a combined 16 inches on the ground currently from both storms. My best measure here is about 11 but that
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 11:37:01 PM
Just measured 5 to 5 1/2 inches on various flat surfaces here in Murfreesboro...winning! :)

About the same here in Smyrna.  Still snowing quiet well.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 17, 2021, 11:38:31 PM
At least 4 inches of new snow on top of the 2 inches of snow and 1.5 inches of sleet from the last storm. Currently I have a little over 6 inches of snow and 1.5 inches of ice under it. That is what is on the ground now. Pretty impressive winter week. ::yum:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::guitar:: ::guitar::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2021, 11:39:31 PM
Eric.... Don't feel bad, We all need some 850 work in the off-season. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

850s were cold.  It was the .5C 925 that got me.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 17, 2021, 11:40:08 PM
[attachimg=1][attachimg=2]
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on February 17, 2021, 11:43:02 PM
About 4" of new snow. Combined with the sleet 5-5.5" total. We'll see if we can score a bonus on the backside.. overall very satisfied! ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Fletcher on February 17, 2021, 11:47:46 PM
Absolutely Huge flakes for this last hurrah coming thru now.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on February 17, 2021, 11:55:41 PM
Just measured 4.3" new snow on the snowboard. Flakes got as big as I can ever remember seeing right there at the end. It was almost all snow just a few sleet pellets mixed in right before we went to the huge flakes. Temp never got above 27.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on February 17, 2021, 11:57:44 PM
We have a mix of snow and sleet falling out here at the moment.  The NWS forecast did call for a mix after midnight.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Possible Winter Storm
Post by: cbrentv318 on February 18, 2021, 12:01:50 AM
Freezing rain ad 29
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Jilly on February 18, 2021, 12:34:23 AM
Changed to freezing rain and rain here. Hopefully will not last long.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on February 18, 2021, 03:06:16 AM
Measured just shy of 4
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 03:48:00 AM
If that fails just cut off 4 inches from the bottom of the ruler then measure
Oh man. that's a good one!

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 03:50:21 AM
850s were cold.  It was the .5C 925 that got me.
Well, crap.   It's too much to hey right!

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 18, 2021, 04:04:46 AM
Over performed up this way. At least a solid 4 inches by eyeballing it. I will measure later. Oh it
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on February 18, 2021, 04:05:33 AM
Woke up and noticed a cedar tree I normally see out window was bent out of place.  Literally.  Opened front door to the ground glazed and white with sleet.  Trees have a good glaze as well. Temp 32.5.  Noticed winter advisory has been dropped.  Hope that means temps will rise soon. Cold air has a tendency to linger longer up against the foothills, so hoping sunrise will put an end to the icing.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Bruce on February 18, 2021, 04:45:19 AM
KMEM  ::wow::
just think we had to overcome Drier air too
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 18, 2021, 05:02:35 AM
Radar is really firing up in Eastern Arkansas.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: JKT1987 on February 18, 2021, 06:02:27 AM
If y
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on February 18, 2021, 06:18:32 AM
I think Texans will be glad to see winter depart.
 https://youtu.be/eO5lCLVOq00   (https://youtu.be/eO5lCLVOq00)

It seems the "rolling black outs" only roll for some.  Most simply roll dark and have stayed that way.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on February 18, 2021, 06:28:33 AM
If y
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: DocB on February 18, 2021, 06:34:12 AM
By my measure, we got 3" IMBY. Not bad and should be a good day for sledding.  ::ski::

In a few days, I'll be ready for the great 2021 thaw.  ::blowtorch::+ ::snowman::= ::drowning::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Woodvegas on February 18, 2021, 06:55:01 AM
2.5 inches of snow in MBY in Cannon County. Snow changed to freezing rain at the end of the event last night so there's a crust on top of the snow. There's a little drizzle at the moment with temp around 32F.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 07:45:53 AM
Radar is really firing up in Eastern Arkansas.
Looks like there might be some additional precip from the south-southwest

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Fletcher on February 18, 2021, 08:25:34 AM
lol what...just saw a forcast on news 2..she had a map with an additional inch and up to .25-.5 of ice today????? Say what???
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 18, 2021, 08:26:30 AM
The best guess that I can come up with after trying to measure a few places is 10 inches on the ground.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 08:26:44 AM
lol what...just saw a forcast on news 2..she had a map with an additional inch and up to .25-.5 of ice today????? Say what???
I, for one, welcome our new snowy overlords (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210218/ff9c4f723c8cd1dd192360d955087388.jpg)

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 08:28:03 AM
The best guess that I can come up with after trying to measure a few places is 10 inches on the ground.
My snow depth is very similar to yours.  I might have a bit more or I might just be inventing that little extra

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Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2021, 08:30:31 AM
I had pc issues yesterday lol.... a beautiful 5 inch snow total here in North Lewis county from last night on top of the recent inch of sleet snow , happy we got a lot of the state covered on this one.

My streak of no 3+ snows in over a decade is now broken.

Hope everybody is able to get out and enjoy it, make snow cream, sled, let the dogs play and be a kid again today, something about snow just makes you feel like a kid again and that's a good thing in these crazy times
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 08:38:05 AM
lol what...just saw a forcast on news 2..she had a map with an additional inch and up to .25-.5 of ice today????? Say what???

Event Checklist for Post-2020 World:

[x ] Rumors of event being bad
[x ] Experts confirm event being bad
[x ] Experts warn event could take longer than expected; multiple waves possible
[x ] Intelligent-sounding pseudo-experts predict extreme scenarios (i.e.- "we're all going to die" OR "FIVE FEET DEEP")
[x ] Couch skeptics counter experts and dismiss existence/possibility of event (it's doesn't exist/it won't be nuttin')
[x ] Event occurs; most agree it was bad
[x ] Attempt to return to normal
[x ] Rumors of 2nd wave
[x ] Panic at thought of 2nd wave unfolds
[x ] 2nd wave occurs; is worse than people originally hoped
[x ] Event over; attempt return to normal

YOU ARE HERE------
[  ] No, it can't be, there's MORE!!!  Panic...

I don't have the rest of the checklist yet because it is still under development!
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 18, 2021, 08:40:20 AM
Event Checklist for Post-2020 World:

[x ] Rumors of event being bad
[x ] Experts confirm event being bad
[x ] Experts warn event could take longer than expected; multiple waves possible
[x ] Event occurs; most agree it was bad
[x ] Attempt to return to normal
[x ] Rumors of 2nd wave
[x ] Panic at thought of 2nd wave unfolds
[x ] 2nd wave occurs; is worse than people originally hoped
[x ] Event over; attempt return to normal

YOU ARE HERE------
[  ] No, it can't be, there's MORE!!!  Panic...

I don't have the rest of the checklist yet because it is still under development!

You sound like you might be freaking out about people freaking out.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 08:42:14 AM
You sound like you might be freaking out about people freaking out.

That's an admitted behavior of mine- it's already been displayed in this thread.   ;D
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2021, 08:49:09 AM
any reports from that precip in s/e ark and northern mississippi?

HRRR been consistent on giving us another half inch to an inch in the mid state today
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Weatherdogg on February 18, 2021, 08:52:08 AM
The last report from NW Lincoln County comes to about 6 inches in my front yard, measured just before I finally went to bed around midnight. It had just turned to freezing rain at that time, but it was light and tapered off quickly. Measured about 4 to 4.5 inches where it was 6 last night. Now I get to wonder if the mail truck can make it through 4 inches of snow. I'm certainly not going anywhere, as all my vehicles are frozen shut, and none have four-wheel drive. I think I'll have to pencil in a session of snowman-making before it all melts!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 18, 2021, 09:05:20 AM
Event Checklist for Post-2020 World:

[x ] Rumors of event being bad
[x ] Experts confirm event being bad
[x ] Experts warn event could take longer than expected; multiple waves possible
[x ] Intelligent-sounding pseudo-experts predict extreme scenarios (i.e.- "we're all going to die" OR "FIVE FEET DEEP")
[x ] Couch skeptics counter experts and dismiss existence/possibility of event (it's doesn't exist/it won't be nuttin')
[x ] Event occurs; most agree it was bad
[x ] Attempt to return to normal
[x ] Rumors of 2nd wave
[x ] Panic at thought of 2nd wave unfolds
[x ] 2nd wave occurs; is worse than people originally hoped
[x ] Event over; attempt return to normal

YOU ARE HERE------
[  ] No, it can't be, there's MORE!!!  Panic...

I don't have the rest of the checklist yet because it is still under development!

Ha! Nailed it.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on February 18, 2021, 09:14:32 AM
Just went out and measured. A solid 3" of new snow between Mt Juliet/Lebanon.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 18, 2021, 09:15:45 AM
any reports from that precip in s/e ark and northern mississippi?

HRRR been consistent on giving us another half inch to an inch in the mid state today
It's snowing accord to MPing reports but it's just south of me right now

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 18, 2021, 09:16:52 AM
If y
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 18, 2021, 09:23:48 AM
We have icicles like back in the good old days.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Jeremy on February 18, 2021, 09:26:23 AM
We have icicles like back in the good old days.
FIVE FEET LONG lol

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 18, 2021, 09:36:48 AM
So I just need to leave town and it snows in Nashville? Yup 3/3 now on that :) I battled my way back last night from Florida to get home. Mont Eagle had turned to pretty much all rain and it was all the way up until the boro or so. From Chat to Nashville I do not think I saw any snow falling , it was all Freezing rain. None the less, that was a fun drive in! Now I can enjoy the 3 1/2 it looks like I got here. Time to dig my stairs out
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on February 18, 2021, 09:46:04 AM
I recorded 1.15" of rain overnight, but despite that I still have a layer of slushy sleet on the ground and roof.  Must've been piling up at one point to have this much left over.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 18, 2021, 09:47:23 AM
FIVE FEET LONG lol

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers
Actually yes. Pics to come.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 18, 2021, 10:07:48 AM
2 day total is 5.5 inches of snow with a 1.5 inches of sleet undeneath. 7 inches of frozen precip on ground. Roads don't have that much but my road was scraped yesterday before the snow and I measured roughly 3.8 on the road this morning in front of the house. ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 18, 2021, 10:11:12 AM
Great winter weather week for the western 2/3rds of the state.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on February 18, 2021, 10:18:27 AM
Light snow falling here again.
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on February 18, 2021, 10:21:19 AM
There's quite a flare-up on radar on the TN/MS state line, headed northeast...
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 18, 2021, 10:23:03 AM
I noticed that precip blow up in west texas last night, got a friend in San Antonio that is getting snow now. It's like a conveyor belt of moisture streaming from the same area as the last storm came from. I am wondering if some of this might make it here. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2021, 10:26:42 AM
don't be surprised if somebody in s/w tn gets another inch today ...still a decent moisture stream from texas
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2021, 10:27:21 AM
Light snow falling here again.

Looks like we could pick up another half inch or so here in s/w
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: schneitzeit on February 18, 2021, 11:15:48 AM
Light snow is spitting here. Nice bonus on a day with 4" of snow/ice cover.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Matthew on February 18, 2021, 11:34:59 AM
What is happening in LA and much more in TX is staggering.  No food anywhere and no water.  They are just letting houses burn because no water.  Pipes busted everywhere. 
Title: Re: (ACTIVE EVENT) February 17-18 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 18, 2021, 11:55:29 AM
Light snow is spitting here. Nice bonus on a day with 4" of snow/ice cover.

Looks like that quick shower was it unless things get orangized better but it doesnt seem like this wants to progress very well into the area.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Beth on February 18, 2021, 12:24:50 PM
What is happening in LA and much more in TX is staggering.  No food anywhere and no water.  They are just letting houses burn because no water.  Pipes busted everywhere.
It is horrible in parts of Texas.  I have seen pictures of people getting food out of dumpsters.  Are they not sending in aide to help them? 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: wfrogge on February 18, 2021, 12:27:00 PM
It is horrible in parts of Texas.  I have seen pictures of people getting food out of dumpsters.  Are they not sending in aide to help them?

The states have to request it. Not sure what has been asked for or how long it will take to respond. I know the Red Cross and other agencies are working the region already
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mmryan on February 18, 2021, 12:27:39 PM
Just a tiny bit over 4 inches here in Smyrna. Kids had a blast.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: ChrisPC on February 18, 2021, 12:31:31 PM
It is horrible in parts of Texas.  I have seen pictures of people getting food out of dumpsters.  Are they not sending in aide to help them?

They can
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Matthew on February 18, 2021, 12:35:19 PM
The world wx is upside down.  Snowing in desert of Saudi Arabia and snow in Greece.  Several inches.  Messed up 2021 so far.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: ChrisPC on February 18, 2021, 12:44:12 PM
The world wx is upside down.  Snowing in desert of Saudi Arabia and snow in Greece.  Several inches.  Messed up 2021 so far.

I saw the photos of Athens. Both Parthenons are covered in snow!
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 12:46:33 PM
So- don't look now but the GFS seems to be pushing back the warm-up like it typically does for the cold.  Now, it's saying the first temps above freezing at KMEM will come Sunday with a max of 43.  If this comes to fruition, it's going to frustrate those eager for a melt party.  This projected warm-up comes in advance of the next weather system, and it remains to be seen what effect, if any, this delay might have on the next system.  Also, that should easily ensure a week solid worth of snow cover- that's a long time.  Snow cover started last Sunday (even though it was a dusting).  If we were to include ice, it goes back to Thursday? (I can no longer remember). 

Streaks to Notice

Today is the 5th consecutive day with snow cover in Memphis. 

Today is the 9th consecutive day with snow or ice cover in Memphis. 

Today is the 9th consecutive day of high temperatures at or below 32F in Memphis. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: StormNine on February 18, 2021, 12:47:52 PM
The world wx is upside down.  Snowing in desert of Saudi Arabia and snow in Greece.  Several inches.  Messed up 2021 so far.

8 Inches of Snow in Del Rio, TX on the MX border just west of San Antonio.   
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Jeremy on February 18, 2021, 12:55:04 PM
So- don't look now but the GFS seems to be pushing back the warm-up like it typically does for the cold.  Now, it's saying the first temps above freezing at KMEM will come Monday.
What about the Sunday precip?

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 01:01:59 PM
What about the Sunday precip?

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

My bad- I edited this because I thought it was Friday today (for some reason).  In any case, Sunday is the first day above freezing per the GFS- that coming in advance of the next system. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: aptrumpet on February 18, 2021, 01:07:41 PM
Big flakes in Mt. Juliet!
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Brad on February 18, 2021, 01:07:58 PM
Huge flakes here in South Nashville. I could easily see an extra inch from this round.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mamMATTus on February 18, 2021, 01:08:14 PM
Dang this is a pretty good band that has developed! It's pouring! We may actually get another inch out of this.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 18, 2021, 01:19:00 PM
areas East of Nashville could get 1" 1.5" of snow from this band depending on your location. I am on the far West side and it has been snowing light here for awhile. Brentwood has been getting pretty nice returns steadily.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Thundersnow on February 18, 2021, 01:19:57 PM
Moderate to heavy snow in Nolensville! Radar has really blossomed along an axis through here.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 18, 2021, 01:25:29 PM
Might be hard to tell from the picture, but it's coming down nicely by the zoo. Another inch wouldn't be unlikely from this band.

(https://i.imgur.com/M6rvBEw.jpg)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2021, 01:30:43 PM
i picked an extra up a half inch of new snow today so far :)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 18, 2021, 01:32:59 PM
It is dumping here right now!
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2021, 01:40:38 PM
It is dumping here right now!

It was a great little extra surprise today :)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mamMATTus on February 18, 2021, 01:45:14 PM
This rate is better than anything that fell last night.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 18, 2021, 01:55:23 PM
Radar looks like a big giant fishhook from eastern kentucky back to west texas.  ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: WXHD on February 18, 2021, 02:06:47 PM
Picture perfect snowday in the midstate.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 02:09:45 PM
Let's see if we can get some redevelopment back to our southwest going. 

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 18, 2021, 02:13:05 PM
This rate is better than anything that fell last night.

Its was really coming down for a good minute here. Nice 1/2 -1" .... I would bet some parts of Williamson county got over 1" today. Brentwood looked like it was under very nice returns for over a hour.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2021, 02:38:58 PM
Let's see if we can get some redevelopment back to our southwest going. 

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I think the texas moisture will be fizzled out here shortly and not transferred up this way?

i must say the HRRR kept trying to show this band yesterday and only WKRN really went went with it in their forecast since yesterday morning, they over did the potential ice totals for today but they went with the band developing
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: cloudcrash619 on February 18, 2021, 03:02:39 PM
It's now the snowiest season since 1987-88 in Memphis with 10.3". An official double digit season was way overdue!
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2021, 03:05:26 PM
I hope people remember how long compacted sleet takes to fully melt, The snow itself on secondary and neighborhood roads will do a little melting tomorrow but 4-5 inches takes time and re freezes with that sleet layer underneath it all. the snow i do not expect to fully clear up in my area until Sunday afternoon, but then that 1 inch sleet layer is there too

My neighborhood will not be clear until at least monday or tuesday...That sleet layer was hard as a rock from mondays system and no melting taken place
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Coach B on February 18, 2021, 03:23:42 PM
My neighborhood will not be clear until at least monday or tuesday...That sleet layer was hard as a rock from mondays system and no melting taken place

Agreed! That sleet pack is going to take awhile. There will be some melting each day, but every night that we get into the 20s or lower it's going to keep refreezing into a solid ice pack.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Brad on February 18, 2021, 03:53:23 PM
Finished up here in Crieve Hall, snow and sleet combined with an average of 4.5
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Beth on February 18, 2021, 03:55:13 PM
NWS in our area is is saying rain Sunday then rain and snow Sunday night with a low of 33.   ::shrug::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: WXHD on February 18, 2021, 04:19:14 PM
Days like this rival any day at the beach. My kids are loving every minute in the snow.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2021, 04:21:32 PM
my neighbors lakes have finally frozen over for the first time in YEARS i think it has been since the 2014 January arctic outbreak that happened. And layers of snow on it is just beautiful! Cannot wait to check out the frozen falls on the natchez trace next week
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Drifter on February 18, 2021, 04:42:39 PM
Although I'm not living in Tennessee right now, I want to give a congrats out to y'all that had a nice winter week.
Especially the Memphis folks, you guys have been long overdue.

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 18, 2021, 04:44:21 PM
Although I'm not living in Tennessee right now, I want to give a congrats out to y'all that had a nice winter week.
Especially the Memphis folks, you guys have been long overdue.

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Me and Mempho believed.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Drifter on February 18, 2021, 04:46:32 PM
Me and Mempho believed.
Five feet deep is coming eventually.
I want to do like Rob sometime and go to the Sierras and ride out a five feet deep storm for real.
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Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: JHart on February 18, 2021, 05:12:25 PM
Me and Mempho believed.

The perfect closing for this thread
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: JHart on February 18, 2021, 05:28:20 PM
It came despite modeling.
It came from afar.
It came without heeding a strong SER.
It brought us more snowflakes than we could have conceived.
Winter did not forsake us: Mempho and DW believed.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 07:09:32 PM
Although I'm not living in Tennessee right now, I want to give a congrats out to y'all that had a nice winter week.
Especially the Memphis folks, you guys have been long overdue.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk
This is only the beginning for us of a long, good run! 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 07:11:58 PM
Five feet deep is coming eventually.
I want to do like Rob sometime and go to the Sierras and ride out a five feet deep storm for real.
Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk
Just come to Memphis.  It's coming. 

Winter is coming.

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 07:14:11 PM
It came despite modeling.
It came from afar.
It came without heeding a strong SER.
It brought us more snowflakes than we could have conceived.
Winter did not forsake us: Mempho and DW believed.
We Believe....

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Hank W on February 18, 2021, 08:58:50 PM
Unreal!
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: SouthavenSpotter on February 18, 2021, 11:15:08 PM
What an awesome week..

Measured 11" max in the back yard left from both storms. Averaged probably 9" through all of the measurements. 2 foot drifts on fence out back, kid you not. 

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/e5d9b7dc644cbdcfe57ef2c88fba9dc8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/8feb4691aa649cf56920db239576b560.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/22b714214b0d0e050edd3f94d54c4d8a.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/913ea45950f86aac4989f90e1760e40c.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/f111f5073d687fa4717c40b0fba84e45.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/216e6c049a1e280cd90c13c5e38002a1.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/aa20cf32f486263c6701ee6c25f756a0.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/29b8c461c1cbcee3046688436844ec01.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on February 18, 2021, 11:20:09 PM
Unreal!
(Attachment Link)

Safe to say they got that snow hole filled up!

Here's where the country stood last week:

[attachimg=1]

versus today:

[attachimg=2]

That big, ugly patch from Dallas to Western Kentucky was taken care of in the span of a few days.

You will also notice Seattle and Portland's snow came this past week, which is shown on the map.

Going back even further to January 1, you can see how lacking the snow was pretty much everywhere except for parts of the Mountain West, the Southern Plains, the Appalachians and the Interior Northeast. The coastal Mid-Atlantic, which was basically shut out last winter, has now registered some decent storms.

January 1:

[attachimg=3]



North Dakota might be the nation's biggest loser. Its past two winters were good, but its snowfall this year is severely lacking. Whatever falls between now and May probably won't overcome that deficit.

You can also see how poorly the Southeast has done this year. The Carolinas and Georgia have had hardly any snow to speak of this winter, and that is a Nina-enhanced Southeast Ridge at work. It's kept them in the torch zone since January.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Matthew on February 19, 2021, 01:38:33 AM
Safe to say they got that snow hole filled up!

Here's where the country stood last week:

(Attachment Link)

versus today:

(Attachment Link)

That big, ugly patch from Dallas to Western Kentucky was taken care of in the span of a few days.

You will also notice Seattle and Portland's snow came this past week, which is shown on the map.

Going back even further to January 1, you can see how lacking the snow was pretty much everywhere except for parts of the Mountain West, the Southern Plains, the Appalachians and the Interior Northeast. The coastal Mid-Atlantic, which was basically shut out last winter, has now registered some decent storms.

January 1:

(Attachment Link)



North Dakota might be the nation's biggest loser. Its past two winters were good, but its snowfall this year is severely lacking. Whatever falls between now and May probably won't overcome that deficit.

You can also see how poorly the Southeast has done this year. The Carolinas and Georgia have had hardly any snow to speak of this winter, and that is a Nina-enhanced Southeast Ridge at work. It's kept them in the torch zone since January.

To think 70% of the nation has snow on the ground.  Truly remarkable.  Is this the beginning of what winters will become for years to come.  We shall see.
Also from Greece to Jerusalem to Saudi Arabia all have snow on ground.  Very interesting times.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: StormNine on February 19, 2021, 05:56:48 AM
Salt Lake City got a foot and Alta got over 4 feet with this last round which really helped them out.   
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: JayCee on February 19, 2021, 07:25:09 AM
The last gasp of the upper trough moving through the foothills is generating some decent snow showers here this morning--enough to reduce visibility.  Small flakes, but coming down hard enough to coat the fallen leaves in the woods around the house.  As the HRRR showed yesterday--they are mainly affecting areas east of Knoxville.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2021, 08:03:04 AM
and now the SLOW melt begins, i will hate to see something go that i waited 10 years for LOL. Hopefully next winters will be like this one was, quite productive for me and very much what would have been an average winter from being when i was a kid. 

9-10 inch snowfall winters need to be common again around here
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Bruce on February 19, 2021, 08:16:03 AM
and now the SLOW melt begins, i will hate to see something go that i waited 10 years for LOL. Hopefully next winters will be like this one was, quite productive for me and very much what would have been an average winter from being when i was a kid. 

9-10 inch snowfall winters need to be common again around here
the whole time you had your doubts about the second system... lmao
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2021, 08:21:05 AM
the whole time you had your doubts about the second system... lmao

vey much so, until about 24 hours before the event i was not paying attention to it since the first one busted so bad here...still makes me mad, i would have over 10 inches on the round had the first one worked out LOL!!!

But the HRRR got it pretty much did an almost perfect job on this event i must say

Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 19, 2021, 08:37:42 AM
We have piles in parking lots that will be here until March.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on February 19, 2021, 08:47:04 AM
vey much so, until about 24 hours before the event i was not paying attention to it since the first one busted so bad here...still makes me mad, i would have over 10 inches on the round had the first one worked out LOL!!!

But the HRRR got it pretty much did an almost perfect job on this event i must say

I boarded the same bus as you. I convinced myself I was not interested in the second event until I saw flakes falling. But I couldn't help myself from getting a little fix with the model runs 4 times a day.

NAM and HRRR both did a great job with WS Viola in Tennessee. Laid down accumulations very well, and timed the event nicely. The NAM also outperformed any other model in Tennessee with Uri. It was the first to sniff out the sleet.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2021, 08:57:47 AM
I boarded the same bus as you. I convinced myself I was not interested in the second event until I saw flakes falling. But I couldn't help myself from getting a little fix with the model runs 4 times a day.

NAM and HRRR both did a great job with WS Viola in Tennessee. Laid down accumulations very well, and timed the event nicely. The NAM also outperformed any other model in Tennessee with Uri. It was the first to sniff out the sleet.

Yep i thought nam was outlier for the first event ( i wanted to believe that lol) but it nailed it

I also knew freezing rain was just not going to be an issue here in my neck of the woods for either event, at most i thought we MIGHT get .10 , didn't even get that much thank goodness
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: TNHunter on February 19, 2021, 09:02:30 AM
We have piles in parking lots that will be here until March.

Enjoyed my 11.5 day vacation from teaching. Good to see Ole NW TN working its usual winter magic again. Would have been nice to see this during duck season though
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 19, 2021, 10:15:27 AM
This storm kind of brings a new meaning to living up north during a busy season of storms. The time it takes to clear snow, take care of the home, its all a think we do not think about at times here. Ice age I will build a new house .....With a roof that doesnt slope over my front stairs....
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on February 19, 2021, 10:18:59 AM
Some spots in Southern Middle have a seasonal total of greater than 12". That's a pretty good winter. If I factor in the sleet, I'm almost at 10" for the year.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2021, 10:32:15 AM
Some spots in Southern Middle have a seasonal total of greater than 12". That's a pretty good winter. If I factor in the sleet, I'm almost at 10" for the year.

Great season so far, actually 9-11 inches was the official Nashville average snow season around here 15-20 years ago...i think it was actually 10.6 officially in early 2000's , it has now gone done to 6-7 due to the past 2 decades of having such poor winters.

This was the perfect average winter i was used to as a kid, one or two minor events with one big one to bring your total to 9-10 inches. I will take this every year :)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Curt on February 19, 2021, 11:02:08 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/601427e4a809c8d393718b508c01d22d.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/2d38f848e036b40bcbbd39d7cfb2388d.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/2bfec663cabc5e09dd3e487794d20a89.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/1e8bbc32372adf63cb8fa5892c9b85bd.jpg)

Snapped a few shots today including the satellite. The snow and ice cover extends down the Ms River to Natchez . The entire state of Arkansas is covered. So far, the snow isn
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Thundersnow on February 19, 2021, 11:04:15 AM
Wow- that poolside pic-

nice photos.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2021, 11:44:20 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/601427e4a809c8d393718b508c01d22d.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/2d38f848e036b40bcbbd39d7cfb2388d.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/2bfec663cabc5e09dd3e487794d20a89.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/1e8bbc32372adf63cb8fa5892c9b85bd.jpg)

Snapped a few shots today including the satellite. The snow and ice cover extends down the Ms River to Natchez . The entire state of Arkansas is covered. So far, the snow isn
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 19, 2021, 12:08:05 PM
Mempho, we close to 5 feet.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Curt on February 19, 2021, 12:24:46 PM
HRR sure wants to throw up a lot of freezing fog tonight across the area as a snow pack starts to give off moisture. Should be interesting to see if this happens. Tomorrow mornings commute if anybody hast to go to work it
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mempho on February 19, 2021, 12:48:29 PM
Mempho, we close to 5 feet.


(Attachment Link)

 I have a drift close to 5 feet myself.  I mean, it was really a great event but we barely missed the bullseye on this.  When people say it can't snow multiple feet here, I say that areas that even get a lot less snow have pulled this off. Check this out:

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on February 19, 2021, 01:23:36 PM
I have a snow/sleet drift that's not quite as impressive. It's like 1 meter high.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Jeremy on February 19, 2021, 01:50:51 PM
HRR sure wants to throw up a lot of freezing fog tonight across the area as a snow pack starts to give off moisture. Should be interesting to see if this happens. Tomorrow mornings commute if anybody hast to go to work it
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: snowdog on February 19, 2021, 02:01:40 PM
Thanks to the assist from the higher sun angle these days, slowly shoveled the driveway today. Worked it from both ends about 2 feet at time, take a break let the sun and exposed driveway do its thing for about 30-45 minutes, loosen up the next couple feet for shoveling and clear that off. Good workout and you don't need a jacket.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mempho on February 19, 2021, 07:46:17 PM
Today was like a Colorado day Memphis.  We got the beach chairs out, grabbed some beers, and took the kids sledding.  I did more sitting & sipping while the kids did more sledding but I didn't even need a jacket today...just a fleece and some ski pants.  It was a beautiful day out there on the Memphis slopes.

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on February 19, 2021, 09:55:27 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/601427e4a809c8d393718b508c01d22d.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/2d38f848e036b40bcbbd39d7cfb2388d.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/2bfec663cabc5e09dd3e487794d20a89.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/1e8bbc32372adf63cb8fa5892c9b85bd.jpg)

Snapped a few shots today including the satellite. The snow and ice cover extends down the Ms River to Natchez . The entire state of Arkansas is covered. So far, the snow isn
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Coach B on February 20, 2021, 06:44:20 AM
(https://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/20210217/estimatedstormtotalsnow.png)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on February 20, 2021, 08:25:07 AM
(https://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/20210217/estimatedstormtotalsnow.png)

That checks out. I measured 3.5"
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Matthew on February 20, 2021, 02:07:18 PM
The pot hole on 24 right at the Almaville exit heading towards Murfreesboro needs to be addressed immediately.  There are vehicles all over the side with flat tires and bent rims.  It
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: cliftown04 on February 20, 2021, 04:05:40 PM
What a week of winter weather in middle and western Tennessee. This week reminded us why we get so excited about a potential winter storm in Tennessee. It
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 20, 2021, 04:39:06 PM
We ended up being below freezing for 270 hours. Made it to 36 today.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Curt on February 20, 2021, 08:16:42 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210221/d7382b0e5b283460af215acd91303f36.jpg)
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mempho on February 21, 2021, 12:41:48 PM
Interesting to see snow cover here at 57F

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: snowdog on February 21, 2021, 12:45:50 PM
Interesting to see snow cover here at 57F

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

The staying power of sleet is impressive. It is just tough to melt that stuff off.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: StormNine on February 21, 2021, 01:01:52 PM
The staying power of sleet is impressive. It is just tough to melt that stuff off.

During the March 2014 sleet storm with 2-4 inches of snow on top , it took a solid 2 to almost 3 weeks with a March sun angle to melt all of that away.   
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mempho on February 21, 2021, 01:05:05 PM
The staying power of sleet is impressive. It is just tough to melt that stuff off.
During the March 2014 sleet storm with 2-4 inches of snow on top , it took a solid 2 to almost 3 weeks with a March sun angle to melt all of that away.
I had forgotten about the sleet layer. I confess that I don't know how deep this layer is. 

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: gcbama on February 21, 2021, 01:22:43 PM
I had forgotten about the sleet layer. I confess that I don't know how deep this layer is. 

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the sleet is what takes forever to finally completely go away....been here a week already and still with this sun angle i had to go out at shovel and pick axe it to loosen it up
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 21, 2021, 01:48:03 PM
A ten inch snowpack that was in a frozen tundra for a week is holding up good at 53 degrees. Still have a solid 6 inches.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: dwagner88 on February 21, 2021, 02:50:19 PM
My in laws in cane ridge are reporting some gutter damage today from melting ice sliding down their metal roof and impacting the gutters.

Meantime I
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: JayCee on February 21, 2021, 03:36:17 PM
The staying power of sleet is impressive. It is just tough to melt that stuff off.

One of the reasons I don't mind a good sleet storm.  Over a day or two it's compacts and compresses into a mini glacier.  That makes it stick around much longer than it's fluffier winter counterpart. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Curt on February 21, 2021, 04:59:12 PM
A ten inch snowpack that was in a frozen tundra for a week is holding up good at 53 degrees. Still have a solid 6 inches.
Same here but where the sun hit it today it took a beating. Some places had zero melting. The big piles will be here for a couple weeks. I
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Bruce on February 21, 2021, 05:12:46 PM
Same here but where the sun hit it today it took a beating. Some places had zero melting. The big piles will be here for a couple weeks. I
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: StormNine on February 21, 2021, 06:11:19 PM
Since I didn't have as much sleet my snow is melting a lot better than some areas down south. 
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Bruce on February 21, 2021, 06:31:14 PM
the rain will wash most memories away soon
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mempho on February 21, 2021, 06:34:34 PM
Same here but where the sun hit it today it took a beating. Some places had zero melting. The big piles will be here for a couple weeks. I
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Beth on February 21, 2021, 06:40:31 PM
Our driveway is thick with ice. Amazon driver got stuck on it this morning. Hub had to push him up out of it with his 4 wheel drive truck.  Hope the rain gets rid of it by tomorrow.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: mempho on February 22, 2021, 07:16:02 AM
FYI - I ran this morning and it appears the ground is so cold that very thin layers of meltwater were refreezing to the pavement and it was imperceptible by eye. 

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Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Navywxman on February 22, 2021, 10:51:57 AM
Well, the thawing bit my parents in north Murfreesboro in the a$$. Ice dam sent water into the sheetrock for their bedroom, garage, & entry foyer. Also means new gutters & roof, again, but first time it was not caused by severe weather.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: DocB on February 22, 2021, 11:05:19 AM
Working from home, I've already had (2) separate guys knock on my door (despite the no solicitation sign (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00ONHC7HA)) wanting to do roof/gutter inspections. Seems like the scammers are working hard already trying to drum up business.  ::doh::
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on February 22, 2021, 11:15:19 AM
Working from home, I've already had (2) separate guys knock on my door (despite the no solicitation sign (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00ONHC7HA)) wanting to do roof/gutter inspections. Seems like the scammers are working hard already trying to drum up business.  ::doh::

Looked at the sign- even the Girl Scouts are banned from visiting? lol
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Thundersnow on February 22, 2021, 11:42:23 AM
Working from home, I've already had (2) separate guys knock on my door (despite the no solicitation sign (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00ONHC7HA)) wanting to do roof/gutter inspections. Seems like the scammers are working hard already trying to drum up business.  ::doh::

Yeah- there was a near miss of a tornado or at least wind damage or hail around here a couple of years ago, and a roof guy came by suggesting we might have incurred damage that's not visible.  ;)

I'm like- no, I think we're fine.
Title: Re: February 17-18 Winter Storm (Verifed Event)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 22, 2021, 07:27:16 PM
Sad that 12 people have died in Tennessee as a result of the winter storms.