Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on January 09, 2021, 12:34:23 PM

Title: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: StormNine on January 09, 2021, 12:34:23 PM
This is I think my 2nd or 3rd winter thread.  This is about the ULL action that will impact TX and LA and perhaps sneak into West and Middle TN.   
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Drifter on January 09, 2021, 12:38:03 PM
I like the title.


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Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: JayCee on January 09, 2021, 12:56:18 PM
I like the title.


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I didn't know titles to winter weather threads could be so provocative.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 09, 2021, 03:31:24 PM
At this point I am not really expecting anyone to get measureable snowfall over 1" statewide. Sorry but nothing is really convinced me otherwise. 20-30% POP.... I am not sure what we are doing here.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 09, 2021, 04:02:01 PM
18Z GFS does increase QPF a bit but its a bit sporadic. Looking like around .10" of a inch on avg for the favored areas. Still meager, dry air can and likely will win out north of the TN border. But I could always be wrong.

18Z
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/total_precip_inch/1610215200/1610496000-eLVpoUhRTzE.png)

12Z
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/total_precip_inch/1610193600/1610496000-znV4mrjlpeA.png)


18Z
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/rh700/1610215200/1610366400-XzJgPmAopJM.png)
12Z
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/rh700/1610193600/1610366400-kGldkTUTv4M.png)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2021, 04:14:07 PM
I am late in the game on doing this, but i am sticking a fork in this one....oh well, i do get annoyed when places WELL farther south than us get a big snow, but at least i got my good ULL surprise snow this week, but this one is starting to look more and more like a DOA for us....too bad
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 09, 2021, 04:24:01 PM
I am late in the game on doing this, but i am sticking a fork in this one....oh well, i do get annoyed when places WELL farther south than us get a big snow, but at least i got my good ULL surprise snow this week, but this one is starting to look more and more like a DOA for us....too bad

Extinct or dormant
Or active maybe
Lava and magma
What could this thing be?
It spins at 1,000 miles per hour
Although it is not a fairground ride
At its center there is a molten core
And it has a crust on its outside

Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: StormNine on January 09, 2021, 04:28:13 PM
I like the trends for parts of SW or SW Middle TN to have perhaps an Advisory level event.  The models don't weaken the ULL quite as quickly and remember they often do underestimate precipitation fields and tend to weaken systems like this too quickly.

It isn't too much of a wish cast to think that some areas west of I-65 and along and south of I-40 may see an Advisory level event. 

The big story is TX and LA. The Natchitoches LA to Vicksburg MS corridor could very well score a Top 10 if not Top 5 event in their history.  Same for the area between Austin and Waco, TX.   
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: StormNine on January 09, 2021, 04:28:59 PM
Extinct or dormant
Or active maybe
Lava and magma
What could this thing be?
It spins at 1,000 miles per hour
Although it is not a fairground ride
At its center there is a molten core
And it has a crust on its outside

My brain after a winter full of watching weather models.   
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 09, 2021, 04:31:20 PM
I like the trends for parts of SW or SW Middle TN to have perhaps an Advisory level event.  The models don't weaken the ULL quite as quickly and remember they often do underestimate precipitation fields and tend to weaken systems like this too quickly.

It isn't too much of a wish cast to think that some areas west of I-65 and along and south of I-40 may see an Advisory level event. 

The big story is TX and LA. The Natchitoches LA to Vicksburg MS corridor could very well score a Top 10 if not Top 5 event in their history.  Same for the area between Austin and Waco, TX.

OHX did mention some dry air to deal with in the mid levels

(http://The 12z GFS indicates mid- level dry air working to cut off southern stream moisture. 12z ECMWF precip is only slightly greater as the southern-track low phases less with northern stream dry air. 12z CAMs are more bullish, though recent 18z runs are more in line with the weaker, global guidance. In summary, the upper air pattern is uncertain, precluding further small-scale analysis or confidence in snow totals. Expectations are no more than a dusting for much of the area, with precip ending late Monday or early Tuesday. While current thinking could change, higher snow totals are a low probability right now.)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 09, 2021, 04:36:28 PM
We always seem to have dry air to deal with, if we got the precip it's too warm if it gets cold enough dry air wins. It does seem like it happens alot. ::snowman::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 09, 2021, 04:39:19 PM
We always seem to have dry air to deal with, if we got the precip it's too warm if it gets cold enough dry air wins. It does seem like it happens alot. ::snowman::

Nothing to be surprised about. Its just the way it is here.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 09, 2021, 04:40:40 PM
Nothing to be surprised about. Its just the way it is here.
Who is surprised?
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2021, 05:14:57 PM
We always seem to have dry air to deal with, if we got the precip it's too warm if it gets cold enough dry air wins. It does seem like it happens alot. ::snowman::

Yep it has to be a perfect mix here, dry air wins a lot of the battles ,  either that or it's too warm and we get rain, such is the tennessee life
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Flash on January 09, 2021, 05:29:00 PM
Yeah, I noticed the trends were slightly better. Still, this is a SWS event for most on the board. I wouldnít write it off completely but if the 0z suite is a step in the wrong direction, Iím out.

I like the trends for parts of SW or SW Middle TN to have perhaps an Advisory level event.  The models don't weaken the ULL quite as quickly and remember they often do underestimate precipitation fields and tend to weaken systems like this too quickly.

It isn't too much of a wish cast to think that some areas west of I-65 and along and south of I-40 may see an Advisory level event. 

The big story is TX and LA. The Natchitoches LA to Vicksburg MS corridor could very well score a Top 10 if not Top 5 event in their history.  Same for the area between Austin and Waco, TX.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Eric on January 09, 2021, 05:43:18 PM
OHX..

Quote
  The next system of interest arrives Monday with a great deal of uncertainty. Liquid QPF will likely not exceed 0.20" and this forecast closely follows WPC amounts. Two features in the upper level pattern will be competing, and one will have the final say in how much precip the Mid State receives. Forecast soundings and global ensembles Mon-Tue suggest 850mb temperatures in the -2 to -4 degC range with surface temperatures near or slightly above 32 degF. Elongated mid-level energy and an associated trough over the Ohio Valley looks to partially phase with a low pressure system over AR/north MS midday Monday. The 12z GFS indicates mid- level dry air working to cut off southern stream moisture. 12z ECMWF precip is only slightly greater as the southern-track low phases less with northern stream dry air. 12z CAMs are more bullish, though recent 18z runs are more in line with the weaker, global guidance. In summary, the upper air pattern is uncertain, precluding further small-scale analysis or confidence in snow totals. Expectations are no more than a dusting for much of the area, with precip ending late Monday or early Tuesday. While current thinking could change, higher snow totals are a low probability right now.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2021, 06:28:35 PM
sure wish 12z nam accumulation map would work out lol
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2021, 08:23:37 PM
just when i thought i was out, the 0z nam pulls me back in
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Lcwthrnut on January 09, 2021, 08:53:27 PM
just when i thought i was out, the 0z nam pulls me back in

So are you removing your fork from a few hours ago??
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2021, 08:58:51 PM
So are you removing your fork from a few hours ago??

idk lol, it sure looked DOA earlier for real, but that 0z nam just gave a glimmer of hope to me here in lewis county , the fork is just on the plate now lol
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 09, 2021, 09:06:39 PM
Even goofus brought the monday system more into west and middle tn that run. Just watching the trends as it gets closer, you never know about weather just when it looks one way it moves another sometimes. ::fingerscrossed::   ::snowman::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Beth on January 09, 2021, 10:23:30 PM
I would LOVE a great surprise on Monday, but sure not counting on it.  Why do models have to play their silly games?  ::lookaround:: ::lookaround:: ::lookaround::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Susan on January 10, 2021, 06:24:35 AM
Quote
National Weather Service Nashville TN
159 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021

.DISCUSSION...

If you like it gray and gloomy, the last few days have been right up
your alley. To be honest, the next couple will be, too, though you
might have to deal with a *little* sun this afternoon. As our
evening shift co-horts pointed out, the 00Z OHX sounding showed
about a 1000 ft cloud layer, which has thinned out compared to
the morning sounding. Expectations are for a little more mixing by
late morning, which should allow the sun to peek through for some,
but not all. Either way, even if you do see the sun, it`ll be
short-lived due to the approach of our next weather system tonight.

I`ve made a few adjustments to the daytime forecast package, mainly
revolving around afternoon highs on Monday, especially after what we
saw today. Northerly flow and copious cloud cover led to a diurnal
curve of about 3 degrees today. Monday should`t be any different,
especially since we won`t experience compressional heating due to
the lack of an actual cold frontal passage. We had a 12-14 degree
curve and I`ve cut that in half, which still may not be low enough
for afternoon highs.

The bottom line is, without much of a warmup and supportive
forecast soundings on Monday, most -- if not all -- of the
precipitation we see on Monday is going to be of the snowy
variety. Could we see some afternoon liquid? Sure, but I really
expect most of it to be frozen when it falls from the sky. That
said, QPFs remain low, which (depending who you are) is really
good news. The previous forecast package introduced snowfall
totals into the forecast and I will continue with a similar
pattern where a good swath of the mid-state sees about 0.5" of
accumulation during the daylight hours on Monday, maybe with a
little more in higher elevations of the Plateau. At this point, I
don`t see the need for an advisory, but if we remain as cold as I
think we`re going to, roads could become slick on the Monday
afternoon commute home and any increase in QPF would probably
warrant the eventual issuance of an advisory.

After Monday, we can expect a warmup through Thursday with dry
conditions. In fact, it still looks like we might reach the mid-50s
on Thursday. Of course, this means there`s a front on the way, but
this one is drying out by the time it gets here, so still no PoP
inclusion for Thursday night.

Both models show a system for next Sunday night/Monday but are
drastically different in evolution. GFS is snowy, the Euro is not.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Thundersnow on January 10, 2021, 06:28:56 AM
From JAN...

Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
352 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021


LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ035-040>042-047-101800-
/O.UPG.KJAN.WS.A.0001.210111T0300Z-210111T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.W.0001.210111T0300Z-210111T1800Z/
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-
Including the cities of Bastrop, Oak Grove, Epps,
Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro, Belzoni,
Isola, Mayersville, Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Yazoo City,
and Vicksburg
352 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Total snow accumulations of two to four inches, with
  locally higher amounts, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeastern Louisiana and western
  Mississippi.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Monday. Brief power
  outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow or
sleet are expected or occurring. This will make travel very
hazardous. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Susan on January 10, 2021, 07:21:10 AM
(https://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image16.png?4b693248517a0f14b01ba04129187a84)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2021, 08:39:04 AM
just hoping a bit more qpf will sneak in here at least around .25 would be a nice surprise
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2021, 08:55:55 AM
just hoping a bit more qpf will sneak in here at least around .25 would be a nice surprise
latest trends not good...
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: StormNine on January 10, 2021, 09:10:31 AM
Dry air is looking like it will win out for West TN and most of Middle TN, but a few areas could score an Advisory level event from Northern Alabama into Southeastern Middle TN.  They are closer to the Upper Level low so it is not unreasonable to expect a heavier band of precipitation that would be enough to put down some measurable snow.

It is more noteworthy to see if some Texas towns can set Top 5 snow records today.     
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: JKT1987 on January 10, 2021, 09:17:16 AM
The HRRR gives some faint hope for those around Memphis with a secondary band hanging around (kind of similar to how the NAM has depicted)....but I'm not sure how realistic the scenario it is. It does appear the precip shield is fairly expansive to the North versus modeled as it appears DFW area is on the precipice of getting into some significant snow shortly that wasn't forecast...but I'm not sure how much that translates N/E because the upper support is still going to weaken as it comes this way regardless.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Curt on January 10, 2021, 09:51:08 AM
The HRRR gives some faint hope for those around Memphis with a secondary band hanging around (kind of similar to how the NAM has depicted)....but I'm not sure how realistic the scenario it is. It does appear the precip shield is fairly expansive to the North versus modeled as it appears DFW area is on the precipice of getting into some significant snow shortly that wasn't forecast...but I'm not sure how much that translates N/E because the upper support is still going to weaken as it comes this way regardless.
Pretty much everything else is blanking the entire state. As you said the HRR has some weird disturbance coming through east Arkansas and west Tennessee which looks completely separate from the main precip down south. North MS doesnít look to get much now and it was a favored spot just 24 hours ago.

Basically- on the the next.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 10, 2021, 10:13:56 AM
Seems like it's coming from the ULL itself as it swings through the area
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Drifter on January 10, 2021, 10:15:06 AM
Well this thread pretty much went up in flames. Do like the title though.


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Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: mamMATTus on January 10, 2021, 10:52:56 AM
Looks good a week out and then gradually falls apart. Rinse, wash, repeat.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: StormNine on January 10, 2021, 11:17:51 AM
The suburbs of northern Austin are reported 1 to 1.5 inches of snow.   
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: StormNine on January 10, 2021, 11:19:00 AM
There may be several places in Texas that will receive more snow from this event than large swaths of North Dakota will receive all month.   
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2021, 11:40:57 AM
There may be several places in Texas that will receive more snow from this event than large swaths of North Dakota will receive all month.
the polar vortex hearing is over northern russia. no good for us lol
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: StormNine on January 10, 2021, 12:01:19 PM
the polar vortex hearing is over northern russia. no good for us lol

At least we have a -NAO that is something right guys right   
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: StormNine on January 10, 2021, 12:23:03 PM
With 1 inch per hour snowfall rates and 3-7 inches already on the ground some areas near Waco will probably exceed Bismarck, ND's 2020-21 snowfall to this date's total of 8.2 inches (they average about 40-45 inches in a normal year by the way).   

If you predicted this would occur in a Moderate La-Nina winter then you need to go play the Tennessee lottery immediately.   
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Clay on January 10, 2021, 01:21:40 PM
With 1 inch per hour snowfall rates and 3-7 inches already on the ground some areas near Waco will probably exceed Bismarck, ND's 2020-21 snowfall to this date's total of 8.2 inches (they average about 40-45 inches in a normal year by the way).   

If you predicted this would occur in a Moderate La-Nina winter then you need to go play the Tennessee lottery immediately.
Even down to Austin, looks like 1-2" and they're not done yet.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2021, 01:58:18 PM
oh well, it does stink yet again places well to our south getting so much snow when so many of our forum members have not had that much in years, thank goodness we got a ULL hit last week and east tn got their snow on christmas, now time for teh rest of us to get a good one, hopefully the next system on gfs doesn't dry out when it comes our way like this one seems it will do
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: StormNine on January 10, 2021, 02:25:59 PM
Here is I-35 in Georgetown, TX 
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Coach B on January 10, 2021, 02:46:08 PM
18Z 12K NAM and HRRR both bring low end advisory level accumulation to southeast middle TN and most of the Plateau.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: pirates1 on January 10, 2021, 02:57:48 PM
Will an advisory go out for around Williamson County/Maury County?
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Beth on January 10, 2021, 03:06:01 PM
Winter weather in TN is as bad as the Tennessee Titans! 
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: StormNine on January 10, 2021, 03:07:18 PM
Will an advisory go out for around Williamson County/Maury County?

Probably not.  The best chance for an Advisory level event is probably SE Middle TN.  Think like Franklin/Grundy/Moore/Coffee County area.   
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: bugalou on January 10, 2021, 03:10:51 PM
I really can't believe we miss to the south based on the patter.  The midsouth seemed favorable all things considered from my experience but here we are.  We have to side with reality and what the models are saying.  I'm secretly grinching out on the situation to the south seeming like it will flop too due to things being slightly too warm.

Of course the weenie in me will f5 the model/radar page throughout the whole event and hope for something.  There is always far more hope with this things when you miss to the south versus the north as at minimum you have the Temps in place for whatever does fall.

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Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: StormNine on January 10, 2021, 03:14:35 PM
The SEC school with the most snowfall this winter is:

Texas A&M   

College Station has 2 inches and probably has another at least 1-2 inches of snow to go. 

Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: pirates1 on January 10, 2021, 03:21:01 PM
GIG ĎEM AGS!!
Title: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Greyhound on January 10, 2021, 05:14:50 PM
The SEC school with the most snowfall this winter is:

Texas A&M   

College Station has 2 inches and probably has another at least 1-2 inches of snow to go.
Check that - I had 3.5 inches at my house in Knoxville on 12/24.  Parts of town saw more......but donít know what UT campus had.


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Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: mempho on January 10, 2021, 05:27:54 PM
I really can't believe we miss to the south based on the patter.  The midsouth seemed favorable all things considered from my experience but here we are.  We have to side with reality and what the models are saying.  I'm secretly grinching out on the situation to the south seeming like it will flop too due to things being slightly too warm.

Of course the weenie in me will f5 the model/radar page throughout the whole event and hope for something.  There is always far more hope with this things when you miss to the south versus the north as at minimum you have the Temps in place for whatever does fall.

Sent from my GM1917 using Tapatalk
Side with reality?  I have decided that reality no longer exists, it is a false construct.  We need to just believe that it will snow huge and it'll be a surprise to the rest. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 10, 2021, 05:40:37 PM
Latest HRRR giving Memphis some love.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Flash on January 10, 2021, 05:56:32 PM
Latest HRRR giving Memphis some love.

Doesn't the HRRR tend to be a tad juiced up? Don't get me wrong. I hope it's on to something!
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: bugalou on January 10, 2021, 06:11:54 PM
Latest HRRR giving Memphis some love.
I'm opening admit I'm in wishcasting territory now but I can at least say it's based on living here for decades. I think we see 2-3 along and south of I40 with 1 inch to a dusting elsewhere. I'm telling friends and family dusting to 1" along and south of I40 but I know I can trust you guys with my weenieitis .

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Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2021, 06:13:06 PM
Doesn't the HRRR tend to be a tad juiced up? Don't get me wrong. I hope it's on to something!

HRRR even gave north central Bama some decent 1-2 inch pockets, what we can hope for is a decent heavy band to come through maybe to give a quick heavy burst
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Matthew on January 10, 2021, 07:13:22 PM
Check that - I had 3.5 inches at my house in Knoxville on 12/24.  Parts of town saw more......but donít know what UT campus had.


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Well here in backyard of Vandy.  Itís like their football team! 0!!!!
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2021, 09:28:24 PM
WWA continued farther north is MS now?? hmmm
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Huntermc18 on January 10, 2021, 10:16:40 PM
WWA continued farther north is MS now?? hmmm

The latest HRRR looks like the Precip holds together better right?
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Clint on January 10, 2021, 10:34:19 PM
It's still not too impressive, but RAP is further NW than the HRRR.

(https://i.imgur.com/O8FqEBU.png)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 10, 2021, 11:03:00 PM
I was just about to mention that too.  I'm actually a lot closer to the snow than what models were showing. RAP seems on point right now. Maybe...

Of course it will probably have some dry air to fight through[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 11, 2021, 12:04:57 AM
Latest runs of the RAP as well as the 0z Euro keep the ULL closed off as it moves over the Memphis area rather than opening up like previously thought
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Coach B on January 11, 2021, 04:08:48 AM
Snowing pretty decent here. Ground has been freshly coated in the last 15 minutes.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nash_LSU on January 11, 2021, 06:04:09 AM
RADAR isn't showing too much making it north of 840. Hopefully that changes. There's a solid band trying to push north towards Nashville, but it'll probably get shredded before it gets here.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: VandyMachine on January 11, 2021, 06:36:33 AM
Ground and road are white here already. A nice surprise so far!
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: dwagner88 on January 11, 2021, 06:46:16 AM
Ugh. 34 degree rain again. So much wasted potential this winter.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: cgauxknox on January 11, 2021, 07:21:28 AM
We're getting enough flurries this morning to coat the elevated surfaces. It isn't much, but I'll take it over a cold rain and be grateful.  ::snowman::
Title: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Curt on January 11, 2021, 07:25:15 AM
Talk about an unplanned event...Jackson MS while initially starting as heavy snow...changed to heavy rain. HRR was painting 6-7 inches at one point . Bust.

For Memphis folks, the ULL Is about to move directly overheard. HRR puts down half to an inch over the next couple of hours. Thatís basically it but maybe a few flakes for a low expectation event.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: marjl21 on January 11, 2021, 07:50:44 AM
Event has already over performed my expectations in Germantown. Itís been snowing pretty moderately for 20 mins or so and we already have a solid dusting on everything.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: David on January 11, 2021, 07:54:18 AM
its white and the neighborhood road is covered here in south Rutherford.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Scot on January 11, 2021, 07:57:17 AM
Nothing in Mount Juliet except old tornado damage.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: joemomma on January 11, 2021, 07:58:47 AM
Pretty decent snow falling in Cookeville now.  It was just barely flurries north of town, but once I got in to town and more towards the south, it picked up pretty good.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Flash on January 11, 2021, 08:00:03 AM
In Spring Hill and it's coming down! I'm guessing 1/2" of new snow from this latest burst. Secondaries seem well treated but definitely plenty of slick spots.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Coach B on January 11, 2021, 08:02:28 AM
I was just under half an inch when I left the house. Roads are very sketchy in Marshall county. Even some of the main roads are whitening up in places, some back roads totally snow covered.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 08:06:46 AM
Just drove into work for the today. 65 has some very slick spots in Williamson County. Take caution.

Fresh, dry snow was falling on top of old, frozen snow along 840. It was a nice sight.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: willywee46 on January 11, 2021, 08:13:19 AM
Congrats to everyone getting snow! Clarksville is currently the jealous older sibling used to getting all the accolades!!


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Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Eric on January 11, 2021, 08:15:41 AM
Roads in Rutherford Co are snow-covered and getting some slick spots.  Totally unexpected. 
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Curt on January 11, 2021, 08:19:40 AM
Very picturesque scene in my neck of the woods at the moment as the upper level low is pushing in. The nice thing is temps are in the upper 20s so itís a very dry snow.Roof tops  went white almost instantaneously
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: JHart on January 11, 2021, 08:25:14 AM
A lovely surprise snow out here in Lascassas.  Precipitation overcame the dry air about 7:00 AM ... certainly not one to tell the grandkids about, but nice to watch nonetheless.  Beggars can't be choosers.

We have a coating on all surfaces out here, including side roads.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Coach B on January 11, 2021, 08:26:39 AM
HRRR keeps it going most of the day:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021011113/hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_8.png)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: mamMATTus on January 11, 2021, 08:28:25 AM
Once again getting shafted in Wilson County
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 08:29:42 AM
Unbelievable, 15 miles again....
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 08:31:40 AM
I am getting very lucky this winter. When will I pay for it?
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2021, 08:33:05 AM
Steady light snow has started falling here in the last half hour.  Slowly increasing in intensity.  Didn't expect to see much here, but it's all snow, unlike what most of the models showed for my area yesterday. 

EDIT:  Coming down moderately now.  Flakes have really increased in size very quickly.  Starting to stick to the cedar trees and the leaves on the ground.  Deck railings getting covered up quickly.  Temp=33.  With only a 30% chance of rain mixed with snow here, sure didn't expect this.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Eric on January 11, 2021, 08:33:12 AM
This thing has clearly over-performed.  Did the NAM sniff it out?  I know the HRRR didn't have a clue last night. 
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Scot on January 11, 2021, 08:34:26 AM
Iím tired of this.  Seriously, canít we get a break?


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Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 08:35:39 AM
This thing has clearly over-performed.  Did the NAM sniff it out?  I know the HRRR didn't have a clue last night.

The ICON had it a couple days in advance when neither the NAM nor 48 hr HRRR didn't, believe it or not... LOL
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Coach B on January 11, 2021, 08:39:17 AM
This thing has clearly over-performed.  Did the NAM sniff it out?  I know the HRRR didn't have a clue last night.
For my location HRRR and 12K NAM nailed it last night. Showed accums of .5 to 1 inch. Sure looks like we are headed that way.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 08:41:31 AM
Snow really picking up here in Brentwood. I'm on the south side of Brentwood.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: snowdog on January 11, 2021, 08:42:40 AM
Looks like the snow line has stopped it's northward push...at almost the same location as the last event. We are cursed.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 11, 2021, 08:43:23 AM
nice little .25 to .5 inch event so far here in lewis county, not the biggest flakes but it is consistent and with temps where they are it is sticking to everything . First time i have had measurable snow twice in a 7 day timeframe since 2011 lol
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Eric on January 11, 2021, 08:44:47 AM
Looks like the snow line has stopped it's northward push...at almost the same location as the last event. We are cursed.

Yeah, northern fringes are fighting dry air.  Sucks for y'all, because it's a beautiful snow.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2021, 08:47:22 AM
Moderate snow cooling the air temp.  Had risen to 34.8, but dropped to 33 after snow started.  Coming down hard enough to start coating the ground.  Radar shows some bright banding in the area.  May get a decent coating before it ends.

(https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?num=6&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=240&brand=wui&delay=15&frame=0&scale=0.28695652173913044&transx=111.5151515151515&transy=17.42424242424238&severe=0&smooth=0&centerx=511.5151515151515&centery=257.4242424242424&station=MRX&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&noclutter=0&showlabels=1&showstorms=0&rand=26839606)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Scot on January 11, 2021, 08:48:42 AM
I'm not happy for ya'll sorry.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 11, 2021, 08:51:06 AM
I'm not happy for ya'll sorry.

Same feeling when i wasn't happy for nashville area getting a huge event in 2016 and i got 1 inch lol, i get where you're coming from for sure
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 08:51:27 AM
I'm not happy for ya'll sorry.

No need to be a prick. This does suck however to be 10 miles NNW. This is the way it usually works. We have just been on the wrong side .
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: WXHD on January 11, 2021, 08:52:10 AM
Flurries here at trousdale and Harding.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: snowdog on January 11, 2021, 08:53:20 AM
Yeah, northern fringes are fighting dry air.  Sucks for y'all, because it's a beautiful snow.

Lol, I'm sure it is, Clark. Just twist the knife a little more and put me out of my misery.  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Scot on January 11, 2021, 08:54:23 AM
No need to be a prick. This does suck however to be 10 miles NNW. This is the way it usually works. We have just been on the wrong side .

Sorry, it sounded like Eric was being a prick so I decided to add my thoughts as well.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Eric on January 11, 2021, 08:54:29 AM
I'm not happy for ya'll sorry.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/H3N0cu89FUOaB5CTbv/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 08:55:01 AM
Reflectivity does look like its going to let the band push any further North. However HRRR suggests that lower level will saturate over the next couple hours. This could give way to a 10-15 mile push North. But based off current obs, its hard to put much faith that is going to happen.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/nashville/rh850/1610370000/1610373600-RQ0PrCgaDps.png)
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/nashville/rh850/1610370000/1610377200-Qa9xvAbV2m4.png)
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/nashville/rh850/1610370000/1610380800-SnBrEEGJ6mk.png)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Eric on January 11, 2021, 08:55:20 AM
Sorry, it sounded like Eric was being a prick so I decided to add my thoughts as well.

Christ alive, dude, I was giving Snowdog a hard time.  Were you included in the convo?  Did I tag you? 

No.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 08:56:45 AM
Jesus, Scot. Chill out. Get in the car and drive if you want to see it that badly.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Eric on January 11, 2021, 08:57:23 AM
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/nashville/rh850/1610370000/1610373600-RQ0PrCgaDps.png)
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/nashville/rh850/1610370000/1610377200-Qa9xvAbV2m4.png)
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/nashville/rh850/1610370000/1610380800-SnBrEEGJ6mk.png)

There you go.  Dry air.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: snowdog on January 11, 2021, 09:00:18 AM
Christ alive, dude, I was giving Snowdog a hard time.  Were you included in the convo?  Did I tag you? 

No.

We Mt Juliet folk gotta watch each others back. We may not get snow, but a 'nader or derecho is always creepin' round the corner waiting to jump your butt.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: snowdog on January 11, 2021, 09:02:24 AM
There you go.  Dry air.

HRRR has teased us before...hour 3...yeah right. Its a trap MJ boys, stay alert.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 09:03:56 AM
Jesus, Scot. Chill out. Get in the car and drive if you want to see it that badly.

Or fly 2000 miles and rent a place in the mountains ::snowman:: But honestly, I am all the bit more upset when we miss out on snowfall here than when I am out West. Something special about snow in TN.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 09:07:32 AM
HRRR has teased us before...hour 3...yeah right. Its a trap MJ boys, stay alert.

Based on obs, you should start seeing snow in the next 20 minutes. Igbok
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 11, 2021, 09:10:43 AM
Congratulations on the snow. I've been called everything in the book in years past for getting all the snow. We have completely struck out so far this year. Mines coming and I dont want to hear it when it does.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: cliftown04 on January 11, 2021, 09:13:21 AM
Great to have a good surprise in southern middle TN. I canít get over that radar in southwest middle TN and northwest MS. You can clearly see that doughnut hole of no precipitation. Iím assuming that is based on the distance from radar sites am I correct?
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 09:14:17 AM
My hope is the band N of Centerville makes it to here or at least to I-40 .
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Thundersnow on January 11, 2021, 09:14:34 AM
Snow falling here in Nolensville... dusting so far on rooftops, cars, and mulch.

I will say, without getting into anything, it's a nice reprieve to come here to read people only getting mad at each other because they're missing out on the snow.  ::whistling:: ::snowman::

Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Coach B on January 11, 2021, 09:15:27 AM
Great to have a good surprise in southern middle TN. I canít get over that radar in southwest middle TN and northwest MS. You can clearly see that doughnut hole of no precipitation. Iím assuming that is based on the distance from radar sites am I correct?

Wayne county is not in a good spot to see snow on the radar. Kind of in between Memphis, Nashville, Huntsville, and Columbus. Still snowing there?
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: cliftown04 on January 11, 2021, 09:21:02 AM
Yes still getting snow in northern Wayne. Yes the Wayne,Lawrence, and Hardin areas are in a sort of no mans land.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 11, 2021, 09:24:08 AM
Yes still getting snow in northern Wayne. Yes the Wayne,Lawrence, and Hardin areas are in a sort of no mans land.

same here in lewis county as a matter of fact intensity has picked up quite a bit
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 09:30:52 AM
Congratulations on the snow. I've been called everything in the book in years past for getting all the snow. We have completely struck out so far this year. Mines coming and I dont want to hear it when it does.

I hope you guys get blasted over there. I predicted 10" of total snowfall for your area this winter.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: cliftown04 on January 11, 2021, 09:31:48 AM
As bad as the state of education is in these rural areas you would know that this would be the year we would get an unusual amount of snow!!! I could see it happen. I say what the heck bring it!
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: snowdog on January 11, 2021, 09:35:48 AM
I hope you guys get blasted over there. I predicted 10" of total snowfall for your area this winter.

One year Dyersburg had their own glacier from all the sleet and snow. I think it lasted into June.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Flash on January 11, 2021, 09:41:46 AM
A solid whitening on the ground in Franklin. Not as much as Spring Hill/Thompson Station but on its way. Brentwood...very minor accumulations but a decent coating in some spots.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Scot on January 11, 2021, 09:45:15 AM
Mount Juliet(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/6d2f765556949b61530443182e89da8f.jpg)


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Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Drifter on January 11, 2021, 09:46:41 AM
Mount Juliet(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/6d2f765556949b61530443182e89da8f.jpg)


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Looks awesome!


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Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2021, 09:50:05 AM
Mount Juliet(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/6d2f765556949b61530443182e89da8f.jpg)


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dont feel to bad scot... my yard looks the same man lol
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: snowdog on January 11, 2021, 09:50:43 AM
Mount Juliet

I think some of the snow is blowing off the roofs of those south of us and falling up here. I just a couple of stray flurries.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Beth on January 11, 2021, 09:54:14 AM
Not even a tiny flurry in Dickson. Sun seems to be trying to come out.  Maybe we will get some next time around.  Congrats to all who were lucky to get some snow!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2021, 10:08:49 AM
Hearing reports over in western Alabama. Some 3!to 4!inch accumulation s...
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: dwagner88 on January 11, 2021, 10:13:43 AM
Man this one hurts more than the ULL miss. It is way overperforming on qpf, it's just 3 degrees too warm. Again.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Scot on January 11, 2021, 10:13:44 AM
I see snow flakes in Mount Juliet.  That is all.


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Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2021, 10:14:35 AM
Had a good coating on the leaves and trees before some mixing started taking place.  It goes back and forth now.  Currently, almost all snow again.

It was a big surprise to see that much come down, and was sure a pretty pick-me-up this morning. 
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Curt on January 11, 2021, 10:31:29 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/6d11eefe47bf8ad8fb72744bcfa332a6.jpg)

My wife is at home under the band just east of Memphis which keeps on giving. Better than nothing.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Thundersnow on January 11, 2021, 10:36:49 AM
Just getting videos of in-laws' kids sledding in Mississippi.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Matthew on January 11, 2021, 10:40:15 AM
Gorgeous snow here.  Little over an inch.  🙌🏼
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 10:42:25 AM
Gorgeous snow here.  Little over an inch.  🙌🏼

Wow that's awesome! Brentwood just has a dusting. I'm glad you guys are finally getting some measurable snow.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Thundersnow on January 11, 2021, 10:44:14 AM
Gorgeous snow here.  Little over an inch.  🙌🏼

In Smyrna?!

Light dusting in Nolensville, and even it's melted off the rooftops already.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 11, 2021, 10:45:51 AM
got an inch here again
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Eric on January 11, 2021, 10:47:22 AM
In Smyrna?!

Light dusting in Nolensville, and even it's melted off the rooftops already.

Seeing some 2" spots in Murfreesboro/Rutherford Co.  1" in Smyrna not out of the question.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 10:49:07 AM
Seeing some 2" spots in Murfreesboro/Rutherford Co.  1" in Smyrna not out of the question.

13Z HRRR called it
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Curt on January 11, 2021, 10:50:56 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/0729ecf7b1cff821750d233ed092cc6b.jpg)
I 40 Exit 28

Meanwhile 3 miles west at Exit 25
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/e41fa9b059669b2cdb2cee2764c2a997.jpg)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 10:53:06 AM
Mount Juliet(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/6d2f765556949b61530443182e89da8f.jpg)


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We get it Scotty.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 10:54:07 AM
13Z HRRR called it

Eventually one of them has to , they run every hours :) Finally flurries, light light snow shower at the house. A token flake really. Amazing the difference between Davidson and Williamson county so fat this year. Now when I talk about looking at snowfall records is kinda screwed, this is why. Airport nothing to note, but SN South. 25-50 mile difference between someone hitting their avg snowfall for the year vs another year of taking away from it.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 11, 2021, 10:56:46 AM
hoping hat area of moisture near corinth mississippi fills in the gap thats over me right now :)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: NismoWx on January 11, 2021, 10:57:32 AM
Girlfriend just sent me this from Rockvale in Rutherford Co, SW of Murfreesboro.

I'm currently in Paducah for the day, so I get to drive home to that mess. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/02cf4f00340c644144326d58f7eaa576.jpg)

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Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: cloudcrash619 on January 11, 2021, 10:58:50 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/0729ecf7b1cff821750d233ed092cc6b.jpg)
I 40 Exit 28

Meanwhile 3 miles west at Exit 25
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/e41fa9b059669b2cdb2cee2764c2a997.jpg)

Looks like my parents in south OB got around a half inch from the narrow band affecting East Memphis. I saw a similar pic of Olive Branch of bare ground vs. ripping snow in just a few miles.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: JHart on January 11, 2021, 11:00:54 AM
We have a solid inch accumulation on the grass here in Lascassas.  Some  of our denser elevated evergreens are sporting about 1.25 inches.  Had it been a few degrees colder, we would easily have reached two inches given the snowfall rates earlier in the morning.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 11:03:28 AM
Some areas West of Nashville seeing snow now. Its going to have to swing East or Davidson is pretty much not going to pick up anything. Some localized spots to the West could grab a dusting to 1/4"
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: David on January 11, 2021, 11:04:00 AM
It's still snowing but this is what I have so far.
Southside of the boro off 231

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 11:06:48 AM
Rofl, now the Western bands are moving a bit East and banding 3 miles North of me now. This is hilarious.  ::rofl:: ::shrug:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: David on January 11, 2021, 11:10:47 AM
Coworker in spring hill.
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nash_LSU on January 11, 2021, 11:11:19 AM
Rofl, now the Western bands are moving a bit East and banding 3 miles North of me now. This is hilarious.  ::rofl:: ::shrug:: ::snowman::

Never underestimate snowdome. He is all powerful.

I was in Belle Meade this morning and saw a few flakes. Ended up downtown Franklin and they had a good little coverage going on.

(https://i.imgur.com/lehcFbS.jpg)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: VandyMachine on January 11, 2021, 11:19:45 AM
Out the back door an hour ago. The dog is NOT impressed...lol
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Beth on January 11, 2021, 11:20:09 AM
Finally snowing in Dickson.  We might get a dusting.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 11:21:37 AM
Safe to say this has overperformed when a lot of people were not expecting much. The swath is pretty extensive across SE Middle Tennessee.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Thundersnow on January 11, 2021, 11:23:07 AM
It's a gradient event situation. I must be near the cutoff with my dusting, with nothing much north of me and a decent event south and east.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2021, 11:32:23 AM
I wonder if any of that precip west of the tn river is making it to the ground. I thought last night that some of southern middle was in play for today. The latest GFS isn't encouraging not that it's accurate. From one run to the next it is all over the place, now looks quiet except for a warmup on the 21st and rain. At least some folks in the south are seeing snow this year. Our time is right in front of us the next few weeks, this isn't the year to expect a late feb or march winter storm. Sorry for mild rant, we have to get something here in the next 2-3 weeks or our chances are going to plummet.  ::rant::  ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 11, 2021, 11:33:16 AM
Finally snowing in Dickson.  We might get a dusting.  ::snowman::

YAY! i was hoping you would get something out of this one beth! I knew it would be close!
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: spanarkle08 on January 11, 2021, 11:35:02 AM
Not a flurry in Carroll Co!!!!
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2021, 11:36:15 AM
Finally snowing in Dickson.  We might get a dusting.  ::snowman::
Dickson seems to sneak in on these things, it will never make it too clarksville. ::rofl::  ::shrug::   ::snowman::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Curt on January 11, 2021, 11:50:09 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/952bd971fb0e387999b1f3c01675c0fc.jpg)
Closing in on an inch or two. Roads covered. Itís VERY localized. 3 miles down the road there is literally nothing.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Flash on January 11, 2021, 12:11:46 PM
Finally snowing in Dickson.  We might get a dusting.  ::snowman::

Nice! Usually Dickson and White Bluff are similarly yoked in these situations. I'm in Franklin now and the scene is similar to Curt where I'm at. Localized...pretty much the theme of our winter so far.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Beth on January 11, 2021, 12:13:45 PM
YAY! i was hoping you would get something out of this one beth! I knew it would be close!
Thanks GC! It is snowing but not sticking. Kind of like last Thursday nights snow.  But it is still pretty.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Thundersnow on January 11, 2021, 12:20:25 PM
The trees and bushes have a frosted mini-wheats look to them here. That and some dusting remaining in grass and on exposed surfaces. Roads are wet.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2021, 12:25:46 PM
Finally getting some flakes here Jackson at work ...
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: pirates1 on January 11, 2021, 01:15:56 PM
My fingers are crossed we have just enough in my area of WilCo (south in Spring Hill/Thompsonís Station) to give us snow day 3 tomorrow so that I can watch all of the game tonight! 😂❄️
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Curt on January 11, 2021, 01:29:24 PM
ULL just sitting over Shelby Co at the moment. Moderate snow at times with wet roadways.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 01:35:07 PM
ULL just sitting over Shelby Co at the moment. Moderate snow at times with wet roadways.

Awesome, very glad to hear it's benefitting you. You guys have been shut out so far this winter.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Flash on January 11, 2021, 01:46:45 PM
Beth...radar returns look good for us. Finally!

Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Hank W on January 11, 2021, 01:49:23 PM
Awesome, very glad to hear it's benefitting you. You guys have been shut out so far this winter.

Pretty to see fall, but hardly anything to show for it just south of MEM. Bring on the next one...
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: JKT1987 on January 11, 2021, 01:59:00 PM
Have to be closing in on inch and a half or perhaps some more in Collierville off Houston Levee/385
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 02:08:53 PM
Models did pretty poorly with this one. HRRR in the short range has not done well at all.

The NAM's solution from a couple days ago that showed widespread coverage across SW Tennessee to the Mid-State turned out to be the best one. I understand that's easy to say in hindsight, because these amounts are so localized across a large area.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Beth on January 11, 2021, 02:28:29 PM
We are getting hammered with snow now. The ground is covered. I guess I was not patient enough this morning.  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 02:28:58 PM
Looks like I just may get some token flakes on the tail end of this things.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 02:31:19 PM
We are getting hammered with snow now. The ground is covered. I guess I was not patient enough this morning.  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

It's hard to be patient when you've missed the last few and everyone south of you is getting it. Don't blame yourself.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Thundersnow on January 11, 2021, 02:31:35 PM
Snowfall has picked up here again... not particularly sticking at the moment. I guess we'll see if rates stay up enough for temps to go down.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Curt on January 11, 2021, 02:32:27 PM
Have to be closing in on inch and a half or perhaps some more in Collierville off Houston Levee/385
That narrow band this morning in southeast Shelby and Northwest Fayette was a beast. S+ for about 3 hours. Thereís a solid cover here and none just 3 miles away.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: pirates1 on January 11, 2021, 02:39:23 PM
Snowing out here again in Spring Hill.  According to my weather station Iíve checked every hour since 6am the highest Iíve gotten was 32:  Iím back down to 31 now if itís right.  Way off from that forecasted high.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Flash on January 11, 2021, 03:06:03 PM
Quick half inch of snow on the ground in White Bluff. Happy for my kiddos. They have waited patiently today.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2021, 03:10:03 PM
Cold dry air here in Montgomery county. Nothing but dead grass and cloudy skies! Hey it's cold, whoo hooo!!!!! ::cold::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 03:19:57 PM
Yoou can see where the snow fell vs. where it did not here along 840:

https://buzzcam.net/NI840.html
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 03:22:13 PM
Haha, nothing here. not a speckle on the ground. It just was not meant to be.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: JKT1987 on January 11, 2021, 03:25:20 PM
That narrow band this morning in southeast Shelby and Northwest Fayette was a beast. S+ for about 3 hours. Thereís a solid cover here and none just 3 miles away.

Yeah go two miles West on Shelby Dr from my office and there was almost nothing on the ground at lunchtime. Might be a little now after that last burst...
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 11, 2021, 03:26:03 PM
Haha, nothing here. not a speckle on the ground. It just was not meant to be.

honestly not too much here either, got close to an inch and it has melted mostly all away, what i have leaft is still from the ULL that has frozen and re-frozen, enough of these nuisance snows now :), we want a real one!!!
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Eric on January 11, 2021, 03:46:26 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErexllIW8AAPtWw?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Beth on January 11, 2021, 04:11:56 PM
Cold dry air here in Montgomery county. Nothing but dead grass and cloudy skies! Hey it's cold, whoo hooo!!!!! ::cold::
Wow!  I am so sorry Snowman!  I thought you would have got some too. !!!
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 04:21:16 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErexllIW8AAPtWw?format=jpg&name=medium)

Not for nothing but the placement of that strip matches what the GFS had. I just think it laid now more QPF
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 04:25:04 PM
Can see the movement now start to come out of the West. Could rotate and fill in and bring Davidson Nashville into play. But the snow dome is hard at it.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 11, 2021, 05:53:19 PM
Moderate flurries, this storm whispering in my ear as it leaves. A kick in the nuts for many of us, and a great surprise for others. Glad that the southern counties are doing well this season so far. Its been localized but many are getting some feel of a normal winter. We dont need arctic plunges and massive high pressure systems to get things to happen. What I do find is when it does snow here the intensity is usually pretty impressive as we are working with pretty strong ULL systems most of the time.
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2021, 05:59:40 PM
Wow!  I am so sorry Snowman!  I thought you would have got some too. !!!
Far section of southeast montgomery had a good snowshower for about 20 minutes, I saw about 4 or 5 tiny flakes in woodlawn. That was it for here. On to the next storm. ::rofl:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Beth on January 11, 2021, 06:15:31 PM
Far section of southeast montgomery had a good snowshower for about 20 minutes, I saw about 4 or 5 tiny flakes in woodlawn. That was it for here. On to the next storm. ::rofl:: ::rofl::
I am sure there will be next one and it will be  Woodlawn Special!  No doubt about it!  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::pirate::
Title: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: Curt on January 12, 2021, 10:50:10 AM
Morning satellite - granted Meg focused. That one strip of snowfall from the ULL was like an oasis. Although there was snow all over the area, the snow band which was well predicted by the HRR -just a little off on placement- put down up to 2 inches of snow which is still there for the time being. The globals had a hard time and most sheared it out over Arkansas- including the NAM. It held together until middle Tennessee. Weird system.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210112/dbb7a4cbff78afd682532cd7d5f97a86.jpg)
Title: Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
Post by: gcbama on January 12, 2021, 11:23:02 AM
Morning satellite - granted Meg focused. That one strip of snowfall from the ULL was like an oasis. Although there was snow all over the area, the snow band which was well predicted by the HRR -just a little off on placement- put down up to 2 inches of snow which is still there for the time being. The globals had a hard time and most sheared it out over Arkansas- including the NAM. It held together until middle Tennessee. Weird system.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210112/dbb7a4cbff78afd682532cd7d5f97a86.jpg)

that is an amazing image!!! one tiny little stripe of snow in west tn