Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: schneitzeit on December 27, 2020, 04:52:42 AM

Title: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 27, 2020, 04:52:42 AM
With a possible winter storm on the horizon for some of our forum area to kick off January, I went ahead and started a separate thread.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on December 27, 2020, 07:12:51 AM
I am not very good at reading weather maps but the next 2 weeks shows several areas of low pressure coming out of the western gulf and moving straight north. Looks like the southeast ridge again. Hope I am wrong or that changes


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on December 27, 2020, 07:14:14 AM
Probably ok to put the death knell into the NYE and day event. The gfs is moving west now the meet the other globals albeit still in Arkansas. The euro control this morning has a Oklahoma blizzard. Oklahoma just seems to be the default winner of all things winter so far. Even with a negative NAO- itís going to cut into the plains. I donít see this coming back this way.

Pattern looks to get ugly afterwards before we see what if anything the strat warm will do in the last half of January.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2020, 07:25:02 AM
Probably ok to put the death knell into the NYE and day event. The gfs is moving west now the meet the other globals albeit still in Arkansas. The euro control this morning has a Oklahoma blizzard. Oklahoma just seems to be the default winner of all things winter so far. Even with a negative NAO- itís going to cut into the plains. I donít see this coming back this way.

Pattern looks to get ugly afterwards before we see what if anything the strat warm will do in the last half of January.
well fun while it lasted. I was really getting excited for a big winter storm . Like score least one good one this winter
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on December 27, 2020, 07:29:35 AM
well fun while it lasted. I was really getting excited for a big winter storm . Like score least one good one this winter
I think the first half of January is toast looking at the ensembles. I doubt that lasts throughout the entire month but not a good signal for the next 15 days. The SSW is almost in stone at this point which will take a couple of weeks to move down into the lower levels of the atmosphere. Thatís certainly to our advantage at some point.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 27, 2020, 08:55:21 AM
well fun while it lasted. I was really getting excited for a big winter storm . Like score least one good one this winter

even i got excited, oh well such is life here in tennessee

the classic west northwest trend strikes again lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 27, 2020, 10:11:37 AM
It will probably do it but I have to say it is weird the way the LP goes into northern mississippi then just goes due north and on this last run actually back towards the northwest. A very odd looking track, right into a HP. I know they can do that, but it looks strange.  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 27, 2020, 10:13:03 AM
even i got excited, oh well such is life here in tennessee

the classic west northwest trend strikes again lol

Yeah it was def locked in hard. We were all anxiously awaiting this mega storm. Oh well , thanks for nothing.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 27, 2020, 10:25:03 AM
Yeah it was def locked in hard. We were all anxiously awaiting this mega storm. Oh well , thanks for nothing.
''I will start looking for low's to form in tampa on the gfs now 5 days out and wait for the northwest trend lol....however blizzard alley sure looks to score again
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2020, 11:02:52 AM
the gfs still wants to keep trending more more nw...lol at this rate if it keeps up, we may have to deal with thunderstorms lol... not saying severe now :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 27, 2020, 11:16:09 AM
Yeah it was def locked in hard. We were all anxiously awaiting this mega storm. Oh well , thanks for nothing.

Sarcasm is trickier to detect in writing versus speech, let alone on an anonymous message board  ;D

Seriously, though, this is nothing, guys. There was never consistent model agreement on this storm. You see instances like these several times per winter- why so surprised?

A real missed opportunity occurs when you're expected to receive a couple inches or more w/in 12 hours, and *poof*.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on December 27, 2020, 11:16:31 AM
even i got excited, oh well such is life here in tennessee

the classic west northwest trend strikes again lol

Go west young man, havent you been told, California's full of whiskey, women and gold....

-Toby Keith
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 27, 2020, 11:32:07 AM
The canadian seems to have came just a tick east, not enough to help many but did appear to get into extreme west tn on the 12z. Just something to keep a eye on. Especially for west tn folks. ::popcorn::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 27, 2020, 12:01:14 PM
Here is something I have observed and generally "should" make sense. When looking at the 500mb pattern we have seen a lot of lows. Many at a time, and constantly showing up in the extended.  Small changes in strength and timing effect how these latch on to the upper level jet should they become completely detached. What we say just 24 hours ago both streams were more evolved. We now have the cut off over southern Cali meandering around , allowing the blocking Northern energy to pass on allowing the cut off low to crank up and pull itself NNE. 00Z Monday night should have a pretty good sample on where that cali cut off is, and the timing of it ejecting out. Everything moved West for a reason but can move back east as whatever comes out of cali is still projected. We have no idea what its really going to do. This has been a trend all season allowing the forecasts to change 120hr out dramatically. I try and put the small pieces together, why models are doing what they are doing, and what trends we are seeing. Def not the same storm as last time per 12Z data today. Yesterday they were talking about a copy.







00Z GFS Sunday
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020122612/gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png)

VS today @ 12Z GFS

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020122712/gfs_z500_vort_us_17.png)






Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2020, 12:25:18 PM
Wow 12z euro  just hammers southeast Oklahoma n extreme nw Arkansas
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2020, 12:42:04 PM
12z euro does change over to some snow in behind the system for east Arkansas parts west tennessee before precip scoots out...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 27, 2020, 12:58:20 PM
Yep it will be interesting, and I am curious to see how this LP system actually tracks. It may not deliver for us, but the final track may or may not be what is showing now. CMC came back east just a tick, euro showed backside for west folks. Maybe we can get some east trends here in the next 48-96 hours. If I was in west tn especially far west tn I would not be giving up hope yet. We have been in the bullseye ourselves before only to see a 2 day out change 100-150 mile nw or even se jog inside 72 hours. Would love to see it flip in our favor at the last minute for a change. LOL!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 27, 2020, 01:05:28 PM
Yep it will be interesting, and I am curious to see how this LP system actually tracks. It may not deliver for us, but the final track may or may not be what is showing now. CMC came back east just a tick, euro showed backside for west folks. Maybe we can get some east trends here in the next 48-96 hours. If I was in west tn especially far west tn I would not be giving up hope yet. We have been in the bullseye ourselves before only to see a 2 day out change 100-150 mile nw or even se jog inside 72 hours. Would love to see it flip in our favor at the last minute for a change. LOL!

sure would be nice, but trends past several years is 5 days out the low looks good yet it trends wnw with closer runs
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on December 27, 2020, 01:45:22 PM
12z euro does change over to some snow in behind the system for east Arkansas parts west tennessee before precip scoots out...
I donít see anything but Oklahoma and the Dallas area with anything of significance. The LP goes through Arkansas now. What a drastic change from 24 hours ago.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on December 27, 2020, 02:03:39 PM
I will take this 60 and sunny wx here on out.  Great for electric bill.  Perfect for soccer.  Think May just fertilize the yard and seed it also. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Ultra mag 1971 on December 27, 2020, 03:03:44 PM
I agree Iíll take this from here on through March
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Crockett on December 27, 2020, 03:33:35 PM
I will take this 60 and sunny wx here on out.  Great for electric bill.  Perfect for soccer.  Think May just fertilize the yard and seed it also.

I agree. I like cold and snow to set the mood for the holidays but once December is over, I'm ready for milder weather. This arctic blast we just experienced was plenty enough cold for me. I'd love a repeat of 2012, with 60s and 70s all February and lots of sunshine. Don't get me wrong: I enjoy a good snowstorm as much as anybody and I wouldn't mind seeing one or two. But if it's gonna snow, give me 6-8 inches or more. These little nuisance snows can go whiz up a rope. Looking at the GFS and not seeing any real cold air for the next 15 days makes me happy happy happy.  ;D
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on December 27, 2020, 04:41:01 PM
I donít see anything but Oklahoma and the Dallas area with anything of significance. The LP goes through Arkansas now. What a drastic change from 24 hours ago.

Actually, that track may in fact increase the severe weather potential for parts of the south.  Still probably south of Tennessee though.   

The pattern probably for the first 10 days of January looks very similar to the general November/December pattern we have been dealing with to be honest.  It also shows that if you have to choose between a favorable EPO and a neutral to favorable NAO, take the EPO.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on December 27, 2020, 04:46:31 PM
Unless you can get the Polar Vortex to weaken, the best chances are going to be like the Chattanooga area storm of last Feb or the East TN storm this past Christmas.  They are going to come from upper-level systems that can generate enough of their own air or systems that can thread the needle between quick hitting cold air masses.  Without the Polar Vortex weakening and an unfavorable EPO we essentially have a pattern that mimics a strong to super El-Nino.   

With that being said this is still not really a sustained blowtorch pattern either at least on this side of the Ohio River.   

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on December 27, 2020, 05:36:38 PM
I agree. I like cold and snow to set the mood for the holidays but once December is over, I'm ready for milder weather. This arctic blast we just experienced was plenty enough cold for me. I'd love a repeat of 2012, with 60s and 70s all February and lots of sunshine. Don't get me wrong: I enjoy a good snowstorm as much as anybody and I wouldn't mind seeing one or two. But if it's gonna snow, give me 6-8 inches or more. These little nuisance snows can go whiz up a rope. Looking at the GFS and not seeing any real cold air for the next 15 days makes me happy happy happy.  ;D
Agree was plenty cold enough.  As far as the SSW event.  Looking at the last one like this one.  Indications are it kills winter chances in this area. We can all anticipate a cold March or April.  Just warm enough for a cold rain.  So come on warmer wx.  Iím good like Crockett said.  December is over and holidays. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 27, 2020, 05:41:42 PM
I agree. I like cold and snow to set the mood for the holidays but once December is over, I'm ready for milder weather. This arctic blast we just experienced was plenty enough cold for me. I'd love a repeat of 2012, with 60s and 70s all February and lots of sunshine. Don't get me wrong: I enjoy a good snowstorm as much as anybody and I wouldn't mind seeing one or two. But if it's gonna snow, give me 6-8 inches or more. These little nuisance snows can go whiz up a rope. Looking at the GFS and not seeing any real cold air for the next 15 days makes me happy happy happy.  ;D

With you 100% on snow totals...unless it is gonna be a true WSW criteria type of event then i don't want it, i have had my share of 1 inch snows with grass sticking through it lol 2010 and 2011 winters seem like such a long time ago , oh thats right, because it IS a long time ago lol.  Cannot believe it has been that long since I had a true winter storm in my area....oh well. Again what a drastic difference in one day modeling can make....yesterday looked so good then BAM it's gone for us, what stinks is once it starts trending n/w it NEVER comes back our way , at least not that i can remember. I don't remember last time models took a step in our favor?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on December 27, 2020, 06:19:37 PM
Unless you can get the Polar Vortex to weaken, the best chances are going to be like the Chattanooga area storm of last Feb or the East TN storm this past Christmas.  They are going to come from upper-level systems that can generate enough of their own air or systems that can thread the needle between quick hitting cold air masses.  Without the Polar Vortex weakening and an unfavorable EPO we essentially have a pattern that mimics a strong to super El-Nino.   

With that being said this is still not really a sustained blowtorch pattern either at least on this side of the Ohio River.
Itís weakening significantly now. Every ensemble from EPS and GEFS start the strat warm on the 28th and compete the wind reversal by the 10th. Itís a major event that most likely will result in a total split. A SSW this time of year can have major impacts 2 weeks after its completion. With a weakening La NiŮa, that bodes well but as we all know there are no guarantees. It should promote a kind pacific. The magnitude of this SSW is being described on Twitter by meteorologists who study atmosphere as one of the most significant - perhaps bigger than winter 2010-11.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2020, 07:05:02 PM
Titans game tonite going be played in the snow ... going make us want it even more lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 27, 2020, 08:46:11 PM
I agree. I like cold and snow to set the mood for the holidays but once December is over, I'm ready for milder weather. This arctic blast we just experienced was plenty enough cold for me. I'd love a repeat of 2012, with 60s and 70s all February and lots of sunshine. Don't get me wrong: I enjoy a good snowstorm as much as anybody and I wouldn't mind seeing one or two. But if it's gonna snow, give me 6-8 inches or more. These little nuisance snows can go whiz up a rope. Looking at the GFS and not seeing any real cold air for the next 15 days makes me happy happy happy.  ;D

I may stand on an island, but snow or none, I prefer my winters cold. I like for things to be as seasonal as possible. Until March, the warm weather can stay gone. We have warm weather for 8 or 9 months out of the year. Less than 2 months ago, it was 85 degrees in early November. I'd like to step away from that for now.

Not trying to be provocative but you also have to remember that a "nuisance snow" is more than some of us have seen in several years. To illustrate my point, I have not seen more than 2 inches of snow since January 2016 in Knoxville. We will take it!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 27, 2020, 09:24:18 PM
I want cold and snow if I can get it Dec- at least mid Feb and even through the first week of march if the pattern is ripe for it. But January-the first week of Feb is the best prime time for any hope of sustaining winter weather. Alot of folks would and will be all aboard the snow train if it comes calling! Put me down for always ready for winter weather in winter!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 27, 2020, 09:29:24 PM
I can always count on the Clarksville Snowman!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Crockett on December 27, 2020, 10:50:39 PM
I may stand on an island, but snow or none, I prefer my winters cold. I like for things to be as seasonal as possible. Until March, the warm weather can stay gone. We have warm weather for 8 or 9 months out of the year. Less than 2 months ago, it was 85 degrees in early November. I'd like to step away from that for now.

Not trying to be provocative but you also have to remember that a "nuisance snow" is more than some of us have seen in several years. To illustrate my point, I have not seen more than 2 inches of snow since January 2016 in Knoxville. We will take it!

If you like nuisance snow, you can join the crowds who are (unfortunately) flocking to the northern plateau to call it home. It seems like all we get any more is nuisance snow. (To be fair, we've always had multiple 1-2 inch snows per year, it's just that we used to be able to count on at least 1-2 legitimate winter storms to go along with it...but that doesn't happen anymore.)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on December 27, 2020, 11:46:58 PM
I am just amazed at how winters are so different anymore.  Like when is last time we had an Alberta clipper or true snowfall that sticks around.  Even getting a week of cold air after a snow is almost extinct.  At the pace the winters are going.  The average snowfall for Nashville will be a trace to couple inches in next 5-10 years if not already close to that average.  I love snow as I grew up in mountains with snow all the time.  I remember in 80ís how never had doubts of cold and snowy.  How the times have changed. It sucks to have bone chillin cold and no snow. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 28, 2020, 05:15:01 AM
Not trying be negative here, but also seems like when we somehow get a decent snow like winter 09 10. 10 11 etc. the snow seems melt a lot quicker and not  hang around like it used to even if the temps r low 30s...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 28, 2020, 08:15:18 AM
Not trying be negative here, but also seems like when we somehow get a decent snow like winter 09 10. 10 11 etc. the snow seems melt a lot quicker and not  hang around like it used to even if the temps r low 30s...

Agreed although that big snow in 2010 stayed for 3 days here it was quite cold.....but now a days IF you get any snow at all there is usually a quick warm up, we don't get extended cold periods like normal and if we do there is no moisture so it is cold for no reason lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 28, 2020, 09:34:18 AM
Really....... Would you like all your storms served up on a silver platter ? Ask Jaycee how those 3-4 days went in Knoxville East TN? All I hear is complaining about winter being too warm, too cold, not enough snow, its not when you want it , how you want it. Its not deep enough, its too deep, its doesnt hang around long enough...... Come on.... You guys want Winter, but "I love it to be warm in between snows" or " I love snow, but I am ready for winter to be over once January starts..... Winters used to be this, or it used to be that. This isnt good enough anymore.... It kind of sounds like " When I was a boy I walked to school is 12ft of snow"..... Yeah there were some great winters in the past, but you guys act like this place is F'in Chicago or something..
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Crockett on December 28, 2020, 09:36:08 AM
Really....... Would you like all your storms served up on a silver platter ? Ask Jaycee how those 3-4 days went in Knoxville East TN? All I hear is complaining about winter being too warm, too cold, not enough snow, its not when you want it , how you want it. Its not deep enough, its too deep, its doesnt hang around long enough...... Come on.... You guys want Winter, but "I love it to be warm in between snows" or " I love snow, but I am ready for winter to be over once January starts.....

****, we did it again, discussing weather on a weather forum. What were we thinking?  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 28, 2020, 09:52:08 AM
****, we did it again, discussing weather on a weather forum. What were we thinking?  ::bagoverhead::

right???? how dare we discuss weather and our likes and dis-likes
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 28, 2020, 10:00:00 AM
right???? how dare we discuss weather and our likes and dis-likes

I would just be happy with one significant storm of 4-6+  snow totals for our area, that's all, we used to get 2 of those a year , now it happens once every 5 or 6 years
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on December 28, 2020, 10:12:49 AM
Its not deep enough, its too deep, its doesnt hang around long enough......

 ::scratch::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on December 28, 2020, 10:17:52 AM
The GFS is showing a possible severe weather event on January 1st in Eastern KY/TN/SE Ohio.  Dewpoints in the 60s are shown as far north as Southeast Ohio in that run with 300-700 CAPE and enough wind shear to make it interesting.   

Will need to see what other models do with that.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on December 28, 2020, 10:25:42 AM
I will have to say the 6 1/2 inches of snow in Johnson City was pretty awesome. The ground is still white but we stayed below freezing for almost 3 days. We used to get about 1 snow per year of 12 inches plus but other than 11 inches about 4 years ago you have to go all the way back to 1998 when we got 25 inches and only rain fell in Morristown and Knoxville then. Being at 1,800 feet and surrounded by mountains 5,000 and 6,000 feet high enhances our chances for snow. The winter of 95-96 was the most snow I have ever seen in Johnson City with between 50 and 60 inches. We had an 18 inch snow, 12 inch snow, 8 inch snow, and 6 inch snow plus several smaller ones. That will never happen again


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on December 28, 2020, 11:05:18 AM
Not trying be negative here, but also seems like when we somehow get a decent snow like winter 09 10. 10 11 etc. the snow seems melt a lot quicker and not  hang around like it used to even if the temps r low 30s...
I think we set a record for consecutive days of snow cover with the January 2011 storm. Something like 9 days before it all melted I believe.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 28, 2020, 11:32:41 AM
I think we set a record for consecutive days of snow cover with the January 2011 storm. Something like 9 days before it all melted I believe.

I know jan 2010 I had it on ground 3-4 days
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on December 28, 2020, 11:59:33 AM
No doubt we have been in a general long term snow drought in this area. You will get no argument from me on that. However, we tend to get jaded as a group based on a couple of things in my opinion.

1. Selective memory - We tend to remember the great things from the past much better than the ho hum things. For example most of the 90s stunk for snow. But Superstorm 93, Ice Storm 94, and the lucky solid gold season of 96 overshadow all the other years of suckage.

2. Availability of info/social media - We now know in vivid detail when we get left out and screwed. Sure we kind of knew this back in the dark ages, but nothing like now.

Other thoughts:  We had a solid week of cold and snow cover here as recently as January 2018.

2010 featured a two week deep freeze. We also had the coldest January in the last 35 years as recently as 2014. That month featured three different cold shots each with multiple nights of single digit temps even at the Nashville UHI. So it can clearly still get cold here. It magnified the snow drought in middle TN, however, as somehow Nashville only managed a half inch of snow.  ::scratch::

The biggest disappointment is that we didn't really capitalize on the cold we've had in the last decade or so. I chalk this up to bad luck more than anything because remember that Oklahoma City, Indianapolis, and Washington DC have all had record snow years in the last 10 or 12 years. The Deep South has also had some big hitters during that time.

We are way overdue a big year at some point. If those places can get it done in our current climate, there is no reason we can't as well. Bring on a 20" season!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on December 28, 2020, 12:14:29 PM
There is a downward trend as shown in graphs that were posted by several members and across several areas. I gave an example of Salt Lake City, UT actually doing as bad if not worse than many of us when you compare it to their average.  That is likely a factor of climate change.

That isn't all of the story of course as despite that we saw Montana having a month that finished at least 20 degrees below average in Feb 2019, Ohio County KY have 40 inches of snow in 2014-15, Northwest Oklahoma cashes out so far this winter season or really cool-season since they started cashing out in October.  The winter of 2013-14 along the I-40 corridor between Memphis and Nashville really was a buzzsaw in the hearts of many in that area and the Memphis to Decatur/Benton County got another dagger missing out on Jonas in 2016.   

A combination of missing out plus the climate trends has many snowlovers especially the I-40 folk in Western and Middle TN feeling mad, sad, and not glad.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 28, 2020, 12:14:34 PM
this is how snow starved I am....I go back and watch old James spann weather xtreme videos of southern snow forecasts and radar loops of our snows in early 2010's
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 28, 2020, 12:17:43 PM
Really....... Would you like all your storms served up on a silver platter ? Ask Jaycee how those 3-4 days went in Knoxville East TN? All I hear is complaining about winter being too warm, too cold, not enough snow, its not when you want it , how you want it. Its not deep enough, its too deep, its doesnt hang around long enough...... Come on.... You guys want Winter, but "I love it to be warm in between snows" or " I love snow, but I am ready for winter to be over once January starts..... Winters used to be this, or it used to be that. This isnt good enough anymore.... It kind of sounds like " When I was a boy I walked to school is 12ft of snow"..... Yeah there were some great winters in the past, but you guys act like this place is F'in Chicago or something..

While his post was unnecessarily crude and exaggerated, I somewhat agree with Nashville_Wx. My suggestion is to create a general banter thread to separate posts like these from scientific observations. Predictions, data and observations remain in the monthly thread; meanwhile, our more emotional posts are in a separate thread. That way those of us who want to read observations or forecasts from experienced posters don't have to sift through pages of commentary that don't pertain to the subject.

Don't get me wrong, those are most of my posts, too, including this one. There is absolutely nothing wrong with expressing how you feel about the weather. However, I do agree with Nashville Wx in the sense that these posts might be better off in another thread.

$.02
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on December 28, 2020, 01:26:32 PM
https://tennesseewx.com/index.php?topic=4009.new#new

Here is our version of a Whamby thread.

All discussions of how past winters compare to our winter and how miserable we are because it never snows outside of NE Tennessee or Oklahoma need to make their way to this thread.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Crockett on December 28, 2020, 01:28:48 PM
While his post was unnecessarily crude and exaggerated, I somewhat agree with Nashville_Wx. My suggestion is to create a general banter thread to separate posts like these from scientific observations. Predictions, data and observations remain in the monthly thread; meanwhile, our more emotional posts are in a separate thread. That way those of us who want to read observations or forecasts from experienced posters don't have to sift through pages of commentary that don't pertain to the subject.

Don't get me wrong, those are most of my posts, too, including this one. There is absolutely nothing wrong with expressing how you feel about the weather. However, I do agree with Nashville Wx in the sense that these posts might be better off in another thread.

$.02

This is a weather forum. Discussing the weather is what people are here for. With fewer than a dozen truly active members, I don't really think we're having to sift through unnecessary posts.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 28, 2020, 03:20:07 PM
so for the smarter people than me....climatologically speaking, the past several years usually by early Feb the cold temps really back off and sun angle changes making it hard to get a snow event correct?  I know once in a while we get one in march, but if we want it it needs to be in the next 4-6 weeks correct?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on December 28, 2020, 03:48:36 PM
so for the smarter people than me....climatologically speaking, the past several years usually by early Feb the cold temps really back off and sun angle changes making it hard to get a snow event correct?  I know once in a while we get one in march, but if we want it it needs to be in the next 4-6 weeks correct?

That is true to an extent, but you also have to consider that we usually have a cold or at least not as warm air is entrenched in our area by February which is why it is our snowiest month or at least tied with January for all stations in our area.  Cold air is also denser than warm air as well, so it is easier to catch an event when cold air is leaving (it is harder to scour out) versus when it is just arriving.  It should also be noted that the sun angle doesn't really start becoming a big-time issue till the tail end of February like after say the 20th.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Crockett on December 28, 2020, 03:55:33 PM
so for the smarter people than me....climatologically speaking, the past several years usually by early Feb the cold temps really back off and sun angle changes making it hard to get a snow event correct?  I know once in a while we get one in march, but if we want it it needs to be in the next 4-6 weeks correct?

2015 showed us that serious intrusions of arctic air can occur even towards the end of winter. We recorded 3 consecutive nights of subzero temps here near the end of the month, reaching as low as -11 (coldest temps recorded here since January 1984). But of course after the 3rd week of January the average temps start to climb, and by the time we get into February, the average temp for the month at MRX is +4 over the average temp for January. So, climatologically speaking, our window for the greatest chance of winter weather is already slowly sliding shut. And that sun angle is just brutal the deeper into February we get.

I was watching the snow melt on the driveway at the house on Christmas Day once the sun popped out, and it was only about 15 degrees. When we get into February, not even cloud cover can completely save us from the sun angle. And, of course, the lower the moisture content of the snowfall, the easier it is to melt away.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 28, 2020, 04:19:11 PM
2015 showed us that serious intrusions of arctic air can occur even towards the end of winter. We recorded 3 consecutive nights of subzero temps here near the end of the month, reaching as low as -11 (coldest temps recorded here since January 1984). But of course after the 3rd week of January the average temps start to climb, and by the time we get into February, the average temp for the month at MRX is +4 over the average temp for January. So, climatologically speaking, our window for the greatest chance of winter weather is already slowly sliding shut. And that sun angle is just brutal the deeper into February we get.

I was watching the snow melt on the driveway at the house on Christmas Day once the sun popped out, and it was only about 15 degrees. When we get into February, not even cloud cover can completely save us from the sun angle. And, of course, the lower the moisture content of the snowfall, the easier it is to melt away.

yeah I know usually by end of January I give up lol, but sometimes feb and march give us a surprise, our winter season is very short.
My home area of NJ actually does not get much colder than Middle Tennessee it just last 4-6 weeks longer , you are not out of the woods up there until around 3 week of april usually and even then it is still a bit chilly, but avg temps are very comparable to Tennessee in Dec and January. Avg high in my old hometown never goes below 40 degrees, here the avg high gets to 45 for a few weeks, so it's really not that different
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on December 28, 2020, 04:23:27 PM
One negative we also have to consider is that the signal for late-Feb warmth during La-Nina winters is one of our strongest ENSO signals we have.

Our coldest Nina's like 1917-18, 1995-96, 2000-01, and 2010-11 featured warm to very periods during the last 1/2 to 1/3rd of February.  If the Strat Warming plus the -NAO works like it should we will probably have time for a 3-4 week favorable period before we hit that unfavorable late February thaw.   
Title: January 2021
Post by: Curt on December 28, 2020, 04:43:08 PM
Quick enso update: main enso region 3.4 along with the rest of the central and western regions are around -0.7 to -0.9. Far eastern region 1.2 is a little colder than the rest. If there is not much change in the next week or so, I donít see it getting any stronger. Basically a borderline moderate event.

As for winter events, I think somewhere I compared cities in the last decade. IMBY, since 2009-10, Iíve had 5 overachievers ( 10, 11, 14(the March sleet and ice storm was impactful for me not so much south of me), 15, and 18. January 2018 was a bonus with 4 inches of snow on top of 2 inches of sleet and snow from a few days earlier. Our pool froze over solid with a couple of near zero nights. Although we didnít get the blizzard in 2016 as forecast, i ended up with a couple inches. January 2017 threaded the needle with a 2-3 inch event that stuck around for a couple days. We missed the blizzard just to my west but still landed a couple inches in December 2012. The total fail winterís for me are 2013, 2019, and 2020. Overall it was a much better decade than the 90ís.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 28, 2020, 05:48:17 PM
interesting how much oklahoma has gotten in the mix this year
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on December 28, 2020, 05:56:55 PM
interesting how much oklahoma has gotten in the mix this year
The really lost out for about 5 or so years after 2011. They couldnít get anything to work for them or the 44 Corridor for quite some time.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 28, 2020, 11:36:01 PM
so for the smarter people than me....climatologically speaking, the past several years usually by early Feb the cold temps really back off and sun angle changes making it hard to get a snow event correct?  I know once in a while we get one in march, but if we want it it needs to be in the next 4-6 weeks correct?

Why? Why in the next 4-6 weeks?? What does that have to do with it snowing? Many of our largest snowfalls have been in March. Are we now getting back to. Its gona snow but its going to only last 1 day because of the sun angle? Yes probably if it happens in late winter early spring. Winter is over here IMO around march 20th. Until then everything is on the table. Everyone here wants a different kind of Winter. TN can only serve up so many dishes . January does have a lot to offer. I think its wise to wait like I said. Curt has mentioned several times a good timeframe to look at. 10th end of the month will produce a storm in the SE. Just hope its over you :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 29, 2020, 08:15:52 AM
Why? Why in the next 4-6 weeks?? What does that have to do with it snowing? Many of our largest snowfalls have been in March. Are we now getting back to. Its gona snow but its going to only last 1 day because of the sun angle? Yes probably if it happens in late winter early spring. Winter is over here IMO around march 20th. Until then everything is on the table. Everyone here wants a different kind of Winter. TN can only serve up so many dishes . January does have a lot to offer. I think its wise to wait like I said. Curt has mentioned several times a good timeframe to look at. 10th end of the month will produce a storm in the SE. Just hope its over you :)


I guess I am just talking the better chances of cold air around here are Jan and early feb :)
And if we get one, I hope its for all of us :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 29, 2020, 08:47:34 AM
I guess I am just talking the better chances of cold air around here are Jan and early feb :)
And if we get one, I hope its for all of us :)
i have always  like to use Valentineís Day as cutoff of seeing long duration cold and wide spread snow storm for our area ... not saying we can score up in March . But after valentines my thoughts go to another type weather . Lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on December 29, 2020, 08:52:36 AM
i have always  like to use Valentineís Day as cutoff of seeing long duration cold and wide spread snow storm for our area ... not saying we can score up in March . But after valentines my thoughts go to another type weather . Lol
That other type of weather starts waaaay before Valentineís Day


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on December 29, 2020, 09:05:11 AM
Euro at day 10 continues to be all sorts of fugly for winter weather lovers. Huge low west of the Bering dumping arctic air into eastern Siberia, while our source cold region in Canada warms significantly.

Grab ya a Snickers, it's going to be a while.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 29, 2020, 09:39:46 AM
Euro at day 10 continues to be all sorts of fugly for winter weather lovers. Huge low west of the Bering dumping arctic air into eastern Siberia, while our source cold region in Canada warms significantly.

Grab ya a Snickers, it's going to be a while.

Used to it :( maybe one of these years I am going to book a trip to a lake effect snow area so I can see a good amount for a change :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on December 29, 2020, 10:14:21 AM
SSW folks are still honking and it looks likely something is in the works, but will it be a split or displacement? Still too early to tell. Hopefully by mid-Jan we are cooking again, not temps but snow chances, however both are equally likely at this point. Embrace the unknown.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 29, 2020, 11:37:58 AM
I guess I am just talking the better chances of cold air around here are Jan and early feb :)
And if we get one, I hope its for all of us :)

Dec-Fed will offer coldest avg for those months or Winter as you say. A snowfall now vs in March , both days being equal , there would be more melting and a overall increase in daytime heating. Heat retention from surfaces would also play a role.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 29, 2020, 11:53:20 AM
Dec-Fed will offer coldest avg for those months or Winter as you say. A snowfall now vs in March , both days being equal , there would be more melting and a overall increase in daytime heating. Heat retention from surfaces would also play a role.

And then again sometimes in march you get heavier gulf moisture too and good dew points. It's always a give and take right :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 29, 2020, 02:28:54 PM
Unbelievable snow totals for the Great Plains on the 12Z GFS going out to 384. That's 3 snowstorms on that same track. Wow!!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on December 29, 2020, 02:35:17 PM
A few of the top 10 largest snowfalls in Memphis have been in March, including #1 (18") and #2 (17.3). In 2008, NWS in Memphis recorded 7.2" during the March 7 storm. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on December 29, 2020, 03:45:49 PM
A few of the top 10 largest snowfalls in Memphis have been in March, including #1 (18") and #2 (17.3). In 2008, NWS in Memphis recorded 7.2" during the March 7 storm.

seems like if we get one in march they are usually pretty big due to amount of moisture available. however it is just that chances are lower of getting enough cold air in march...thread that needle :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on December 29, 2020, 04:47:34 PM
Both the EC and GEFS have the NAO and AO perhaps reaching near record levels mid month. We haven't seen a consistent negative combo since 2010 and 2011, and even those weren't as negative as they will be. The last truly severe negative combo was winter 95-96. Models show both remaining negative throughout mid February. If the strat warm can help tip the EPO downwards, a cold period- and maybe even very cold- is on the table for later.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on December 29, 2020, 06:50:14 PM
Both the EC and GEFS have the NAO and AO perhaps reaching near record levels mid month. We haven't seen a consistent negative combo since 2010 and 2011, and even those weren't as negative as they will be. The last truly severe negative combo was winter 95-96. Models show both remaining negative throughout mid February. If the strat warm can help tip the EPO downwards, a cold period- and maybe even very cold- is on the table for later.
We are going to need it. The GFS has no sub-freezing temps through 384 hours here. In what should be the coldest time of the year climatologically.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on December 29, 2020, 07:11:57 PM
I went through the models pretty fast and through January 14th it shows every weather system doing exactly the same thing. It repeats the same scenario every 3 days. It looks like you are replaying the same storm over and over when actually itís a different one every 3 days. There need to be some changes in that pattern before the middle of January or it will be another repeat of last year during the month that should be our coldest. The Pacific mess has screwed us for about 3 years now regarding any winter in January. I have never seen anything like it


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Title: January 2021
Post by: Curt on December 29, 2020, 07:21:44 PM
We are going to need it. The GFS has no sub-freezing temps through 384 hours here. In what should be the coldest time of the year climatologically.
Agree- but if you look at the new extended GEFS, which is now weeks 3-5, the pattern does flip right after day 15. Here are the 7 day temp anomalies ending on January 13 and 29th, meaning mid month is where the pattern responds and changes.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201230/0fad21d9f10eab78bbb4e69334794b2d.jpg)


(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201230/2fdc42f2fb870606d9f68bd6cae41512.jpg)

Now someone will hold me to that Iím sure. Itís just modeling. But with a solid NAO, AO, slightly positive PNA and a huge SSW and possible polar vortex - I would be more bullish on that change.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on December 29, 2020, 11:00:41 PM
I hope by mid month the pattern does flip.  Just like everyone else on here.  Call me skeptical because seems I remember not to long ago we were waiting on the pattern change to occur and it never did. Let this nightmare end!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on December 30, 2020, 09:21:46 AM
If anyone was wondering about the SSW Polar Vortex split, here is a good graphic from the GFS. Usually, there is one low sitting close to the pole, but here you can see it split into two. This doesn't mean cold and snow for us, have to see how it evolves.

If you want to see how it evolves for yourself, you can use the link below and go to heights, 10hpa NH.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/#emcz (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/#emcz)

(https://i.ibb.co/prPTfxc/GFS-PV-Split.jpg)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on December 30, 2020, 05:33:20 PM
Pretty much how I see January based on trends.

Jan 1st-10th: Borderline blowtorch, yuck pattern that is pretty much Winter of 2019-2020 all over again.  No winter threats 

Jan 11th-18th: We revert back to our December pattern. Negative -NAO, and gradually improving but still overall terrible Pacific.  We could perhaps sneak a winter threat or two with the right timed wave although we would probably need some dynamic cooling help.   

Jan 18th-31st:  Probably the best chance all winter long at least outside of NE TN.  Any SSW effect would occur we should have our -NAO and if we are good boys and girls we may see occasional rounds of a +PNA.  This period plus the first week or two of February may be do or die for this winter as La-Nina winters tend to torch their minds out after Valentine's Day.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 31, 2020, 09:27:16 AM
Pretty much how I see January based on trends.

Jan 1st-10th: Borderline blowtorch, yuck pattern that is pretty much Winter of 2019-2020 all over again.  No winter threats 

Jan 11th-18th: We revert back to our December pattern. Negative -NAO, and gradually improving but still overall terrible Pacific.  We could perhaps sneak a winter threat or two with the right timed wave although we would probably need some dynamic cooling help.   

Jan 18th-31st:  Probably the best chance all winter long at least outside of NE TN.  Any SSW effect would occur we should have our -NAO and if we are good boys and girls we may see occasional rounds of a +PNA.  This period plus the first week or two of February may be do or die for this winter as La-Nina winters tend to torch their minds out after Valentine's Day.

As you know I am in the Sierra a lot of my home office is Reno NWS and Sacramento NWS. Reno office talking about the ridge moving back north, pushing AR conditions back into the PNW.
Quote
If you look at the official forecast, this is why there
are still chances throughout the week. Those aforementioned
periods are just the best bets for stronger storms. There could be
one more storm the very end of the week into next weekend,
however, ensembles are hinting at the ridge rebuilding, which
would lead to the storm weakening and/or possibly being shifted
northward.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on January 01, 2021, 10:48:22 AM
Happy New Year!

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 01, 2021, 01:40:40 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

Here is the result of yesterday's forecasted Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather.

It was actually a nice way to end a rough year both disaster wise and overall wise. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 01, 2021, 02:17:27 PM
Happy New Year!

(Attachment Link)

This was the first year I was actually tempted to eat them.  I'll gladly eat dirt to improve 2021 over 2020.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 01, 2021, 02:35:29 PM
This was the first year I was actually tempted to eat them.  I'll gladly eat dirt to improve 2021 over 2020.
yeah Iím grilling ribeye s tonite .
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 01, 2021, 03:10:53 PM
Quite the temperature difference between West and Middle Tennessee today.

(https://i.imgur.com/2MgJJFi.jpg)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 01, 2021, 03:59:27 PM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

Who put this El-Nino pattern in a La-Nina?

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 01, 2021, 04:15:38 PM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

Who put this El-Nino pattern in a La-Nina?

It is strange.  What could override the typical weather pattern we see during a La Nina? Something is.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 01, 2021, 04:21:27 PM
It is strange.  What could override the typical weather pattern we see during a La Nina? Something is.   

My hypothesis is it is a combination of the -NAO, record warmth in the arctic, and the +EPO.   There are probably other forces that I have not named.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 01, 2021, 05:29:45 PM
Yíall ready for another prediction ?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 01, 2021, 05:29:54 PM
This was the first year I was actually tempted to eat them.  I'll gladly eat dirt to improve 2021 over 2020.

Love some black eyed peas. Cooked with some bacon for flavor, crumble up some cornbread to put on top....  ::yum::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Beth on January 01, 2021, 05:37:30 PM
yeah Iím grilling ribeye s tonite .

Same here!  😊
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 01, 2021, 05:41:54 PM
Yíall ready for another prediction ?
Yes. What would it be. I live in Johnson City and your prediction for Christmas provided with 6 1/2 inches of snow


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on January 01, 2021, 05:42:52 PM
Yíall ready for another prediction ?
Bring it!


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Crockett on January 01, 2021, 07:57:37 PM
Love some black eyed peas. Cooked with some bacon for flavor, crumble up some cornbread to put on top....  ::yum::

There's a black-eyed pea stew that includes sausage as a main ingredient. Serve that stuff piping hot with cornbread...there are few things better.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on January 01, 2021, 08:09:56 PM
Had our black-eyed peas with pork... threw a couple of porkchops and pork ribs on the green egg grill (hickory lump charcoal) today- very springlike today albeit rather windy.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 02, 2021, 09:32:55 AM
I just looked at the GFS through January 18th and the pattern looks exactly the same to me as right now. Hopefully I donít know what I am looking at. There are a few times a low comes up through southern Alabama and Georgia and moves up to Eastern North Carolina and every time it shows Tennessee with rain. That could not be a better track except no cold air. Crazy


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 02, 2021, 10:18:25 AM
I just looked at the GFS through January 18th and the pattern looks exactly the same to me as right now. Hopefully I donít know what I am looking at. There are a few times a low comes up through southern Alabama and Georgia and moves up to Eastern North Carolina and every time it shows Tennessee with rain. That could not be a better track except no cold air. Crazy

Arctic air source is a legit concern, at least through the first half of January. We'll see how it evolves.

Another is how the SSW evolves. Models show a split in the next couple days but then it reorganizes on the other side of the globe. That would not be good, but we'll see.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 02, 2021, 10:39:33 AM
Arctic air source is a legit concern, at least through the first half of January. We'll see how it evolves.

Another is how the SSW evolves. Models show a split in the next couple days but then it reorganizes on the other side of the globe. That would not be good, but we'll see.
correct. Afraid colder air going stay around the Western Hemisphere...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 02, 2021, 10:51:09 AM
Essentially our pattern into mid-January is that of a Strong El-Nino.

Average to maybe periods of cooler than average temperatures, impulses along a subtropical jet, but no real cold air.  There is only one way to score in a classic Strong El-Nino pattern and that is getting a system or upper level low and introduce dynamic cooling.   



Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Beth on January 02, 2021, 12:58:34 PM
Donít any one get jealous but I have a whopping 20% chance of rain and snow mix for next Thursday night. 
I think there is one meteorologist at NWS who likes to throw that out there every once in a while. It will probably disappear soon.   ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 02, 2021, 01:24:13 PM
12z Parallel GFS or GFS-16, whatever they are calling the experimental GFS these days, has a hit for TN around 200 hours. Euro has the same wave, just weaker and further south.

(https://i.ibb.co/27wmrhY/12z-GFSP-210.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on January 02, 2021, 01:56:23 PM
Yíall ready for another prediction ?

(https://media2.giphy.com/media/9SIXFu7bIUYHhFc19G/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47fq0rg52cfm8clbptt7n6vdrho15ixh189wc92p5w&rid=giphy.gif)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 02, 2021, 02:01:21 PM
I spoke with someone who was close to Dyersburg who wishes to be anonymous that said work was being done in Canada to artificially create cold air and a deeper snowpack which will cause a Fab Feb.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 02, 2021, 03:05:01 PM
I dont post much on here, but the split when it happens should send one piece overseas and the other down into se canada if everything goes to plan. Mid January at the earliest before we have any legit opportunities at winter weather.  :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 02, 2021, 04:04:26 PM
(https://media2.giphy.com/media/9SIXFu7bIUYHhFc19G/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47fq0rg52cfm8clbptt7n6vdrho15ixh189wc92p5w&rid=giphy.gif)
We are f+#%=d.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on January 02, 2021, 04:19:19 PM
We are f+#%=d.

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/ki1FvyBIf9JqECgLQr/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47af79cbc0b4f567f59295302ccbd99005f0d014f0&rid=giphy.gif)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on January 02, 2021, 04:23:00 PM
We are f+#%=d.
#wintercancel


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 02, 2021, 04:24:29 PM
I went from being like uhhh a La Nina acting like a Strong El-Nino to wanting to watch Caddy Shack again while I plot how to drop a Babe Ruth or similar candy bar in a swimming pool this summer.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 02, 2021, 04:45:12 PM
Those two slow moving systems sliding to our south on the Euro sure look good.   ::shrug::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 02, 2021, 04:55:06 PM
Those two slow moving systems sliding to our south on the Euro sure look good.   ::shrug::
agree with you... except one thing missing thus far .
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 02, 2021, 05:27:34 PM
12z Parallel GFS or GFS-16, whatever they are calling the experimental GFS these days, has a hit for TN around 200 hours. Euro has the same wave, just weaker and further south.

(https://i.ibb.co/27wmrhY/12z-GFSP-210.png)

18Z Parallel GFS Still has the storm.

(https://i.imgur.com/jWYqV5Z.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 02, 2021, 05:38:29 PM
18Z Parallel GFS Still has the storm.

(https://i.imgur.com/jWYqV5Z.png)
IF it played out like this , I think the northern precipitation field would be much larger.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 02, 2021, 10:49:04 PM
Oz GFS is amazing right now
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 02, 2021, 11:02:30 PM
I would pay $500.00 is hard cash for the 00Z GFS to verify. If we cant get the real thing at least some weather porn.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/nashville/total_snow_kuchera/1609632000/1610355600-AIuIKl6gZhE.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 02, 2021, 11:03:14 PM
Oz GFS is amazing right now

Too bad the SLP will be in Tulsa by the weekend.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 02, 2021, 11:04:41 PM
Too bad the SLP will be in Tulsa by the weekend.

Eric is optimistic about his one yall.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 02, 2021, 11:08:33 PM
Too bad the SLP will be in Tulsa by the weekend.
Exactly what I was thinking too. FWIW, 0z GFS v16 follows the 12z euro with the SLP taking an eastern trek across the southeast along the coast instead of a turn to the north across TN. Looks good for east TN and north GA. Maybe it's enough wiggle room for a NW trend instead of showing up in Nebraska in a couple of days

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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 02, 2021, 11:25:33 PM
Yep. GFS Op and Para have completely different solutions. With the para looking similar to the Euro, I'd lean toward the para 16.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 02, 2021, 11:53:33 PM
Surface temps look marginal ... 850 s yell sleet.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 03, 2021, 07:16:51 AM
Pretty good snow shower just passed through here. Briefly whitened the car tops.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 03, 2021, 07:33:55 AM
Too bad the SLP will be in Tulsa by the weekend.

Or Cuba, maybe we can get another one of those SW Texas/Northern Mexico snow so people down there will have something to tell their grandkids.  Hey, did you know in this hot desert that it not only snowed once but one winter it did in twice. In that winter we had more snow that the Mid-Atlantic did. 

Wow!! Grandpa is that really true?

Yes grandbaby it is I can show you the picture.  Grandbabies are in shock and awe and amazement in how much snow there was in their Tex/Mexican border home during the winter of 2020-21 and they all had a happy dinner together (no pandemic is in effect during the time of this story). 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: DocB on January 03, 2021, 09:07:39 AM
Pretty good snow shower just passed through here. Briefly whitened the car tops.  ::snowman::
We got one too. One minute drizzle - next flurries - then gone.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 03, 2021, 09:30:44 AM
Surface temps look marginal ... 850 s yell sleet.

I disagree, there is nothing that really screams sleet whatsoever on the 00Z GFS. Please explain how 850's yell sleet?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 03, 2021, 09:57:05 AM
I disagree, there is nothing that really screams sleet whatsoever on the 00Z GFS. Please explain how 850's yell sleet?
trust me... at this point i take sleet .
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 03, 2021, 10:06:55 AM
trust me... at this point i take sleet .

Trust you what? Just make sense. I want to understand how you took away that the 00Z GFS was yelling sleet. If we are going to have weather conversation we might as well make sense right? And I would take a couple inches of sleet before some snow any day I agree.

Here is a sounding from that time. Right on the border. You get the results
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/gfs_2021010300_fh198_sounding_36.11N_86.42W.png)

A little further west into all SN.
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/gfs_2021010300_fh198_sounding_35.95N_86.66W.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 03, 2021, 10:16:16 AM
12Z vs 00Z Gfs takes low from NW MO to just West of Memphis kicking down into Southern AL/GA. Ashville and the Eastern side of the apps into NC look to do well. Lot of change within 100 hours. That is what past day 5 really does not worry me at this point. All signs are looking for good for Middle of January imo. Something could sneak in before that as well.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JHart on January 03, 2021, 10:17:46 AM
We just had a quick rain/sleet shower pass through Lascassas.  It was remarkably unremarkable except for the fact that the temperature is currently 45F.  I assume it is very dry overhead at the moment.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 03, 2021, 10:20:20 AM
We just had a quick rain/sleet shower pass through Lascassas.  It was remarkably unremarkable except for the fact that the temperature is currently 45F.  I assume it is very dry overhead at the moment.

Likely close at the time.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/hrrr_2021010312_fh2_sounding_36.05N_86.82W.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Beth on January 03, 2021, 12:39:59 PM
Looks like this year is going to be east TN and NC.  But we might be able to sneak a few flurries in here and there. Maybe more!  ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 03, 2021, 12:50:24 PM
12Z vs 00Z Gfs takes low from NW MO to just West of Memphis kicking down into Southern AL/GA. Ashville and the Eastern side of the apps into NC look to do well. Lot of change within 100 hours. That is what past day 5 really does not worry me at this point. All signs are looking for good for Middle of January imo. Something could sneak in before that as well.

I see both good and bad signs for the middle of the month onward. We'll obviously have a better idea this time next week. Blocking looks good, but will there be enough arctic air available to play with? What happens to the PV after the current disruption? MJO, while a weak signal, doesn't look to be helping us either anytime soon as it stays in our warm phase.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 03, 2021, 12:55:52 PM
12z euro still has the SLP along the coast. Drops snow across the whole state
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Vols1 on January 03, 2021, 12:56:19 PM
What day are we watching this system for?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 03, 2021, 01:07:28 PM
Euro cooking with bacon grease.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 03, 2021, 01:16:50 PM
Euro cooking with bacon grease.


(Attachment Link)

Yep, snow for East Tennessee at hour 120 and looks good for a statewide snow at hour 192.  ::snowman::

(https://i.imgur.com/vdBgIXS.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on January 03, 2021, 01:52:13 PM
Euro is somewhat encouraging, but the GFS is a wet blanket. Cold rain at every site in the state I checked other than TRI. And TRI was marginal.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 03, 2021, 01:54:54 PM
The 12z euro and its control run are trying to change the Wed night bowling ball LP moving in from the NW to snow as well. The next system is going to go back and forth some from suppression to a stormóTBD.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 03, 2021, 02:10:53 PM
I know, we are still aways out but I like the trends on all the models heading into the next 2-3 weeks. Of course we know the drill in Tennessee, but the pattern looks stormy and colder. I am getting excited about our chances! Let's ROLL OL MAN WINTER!!!! ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 03, 2021, 02:26:36 PM
Yep, snow for East Tennessee at hour 120 and looks good for a statewide snow at hour 192.  ::snowman::

(https://i.imgur.com/vdBgIXS.png)

with a massive bullseye on alexandria louisiana LOL.....would be nice
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 03, 2021, 05:10:17 PM
Happy hour GFS with 3 storms in a row slightly suppressed. We might be in business.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 03, 2021, 07:08:15 PM
Anyone know when the last time BNA was under a Winter Storm Warning or recorded at least an inch of snow? 2018?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 03, 2021, 07:20:04 PM
Anyone know when the last time BNA was under a Winter Storm Warning or recorded at least an inch of snow? 2018?
March 2015?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 03, 2021, 07:52:22 PM
Anyone know when the last time BNA was under a Winter Storm Warning or recorded at least an inch of snow? 2018?

Probably Jonas - Jan, 2016... Maybe, Jan 16, 2018.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 03, 2021, 07:55:54 PM
Probably Jonas - Jan, 2016... Maybe, Jan 16, 2018.
Oh yeah thatís got to be it- 2016. Nashville was close to the 2018 warnings. Memphis was barely in them.

FWIW- Something to watch ...18z euro control run definitely wants to change rain to snow over most of West TN. A closed ULL to the south with great 850ís and marginal surface temps. Donít underestimate those tricky kind of set ups. Surface temps would be near or just above freezing.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 03, 2021, 08:05:58 PM
Oh yeah thatís got to be it- 2016. Nashville was close to the 2018 warnings. Memphis was barely in them.

FWIW- Something to watch ...18z euro control run definitely wants to change rain to snow over most of West TN. A closed ULL to the south with great 850ís and marginal surface temps. Donít underestimate those tricky kind of set ups. Surface temps would be near or just above freezing.
heavy rates for the win ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 03, 2021, 08:22:49 PM
Oh yeah thatís got to be it- 2016. Nashville was close to the 2018 warnings. Memphis was barely in them.

FWIW- Something to watch ...18z euro control run definitely wants to change rain to snow over most of West TN. A closed ULL to the south with great 850ís and marginal surface temps. Donít underestimate those tricky kind of set ups. Surface temps would be near or just above freezing.

Wow, I knew it had been a while, but surprised its been that long.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 03, 2021, 08:32:21 PM
Wow, I knew it had been a while, but surprised its been that long.

2016 for sure, i think mine was 2015 march snow event last WSW
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 03, 2021, 09:13:00 PM
anyone even remember the last accumulating snowfall we had, not counting a inch or less? lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 03, 2021, 09:25:44 PM
anyone even remember the last accumulating snowfall we had, not counting a inch or less? lol

i got 1.5 in 2018 i think it was around feb? before that it was march 2015 i got 3 inches....that has been it for me since 2011
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 03, 2021, 09:28:21 PM
anyone even remember the last accumulating snowfall we had, not counting a inch or less? lol
Here you go... This was Friday, 1-12-2018 and we had another couple inches a few days later on 1-15-2018.
(https://i.imgur.com/LonYayj.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/3nNrrX6.png)


Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 03, 2021, 09:29:27 PM
Same here Clint! January of 18 for me. First snow was about 5 inches followed by another 1.5-2 inches a few days later. Stayed on the ground 6-7 days. ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 03, 2021, 09:35:43 PM
Here you go... This was Friday, 1-12-2018 and we had another couple inches a few days later on 1-15-2018.
(https://i.imgur.com/LonYayj.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/3nNrrX6.png)
yeah, i was kind being funny guess.  i remember that  we got like 2 fairly good snows back to back... that was the last good snow ii have seen.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 03, 2021, 10:22:32 PM
0z GFS is no bueno
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 03, 2021, 10:28:00 PM
0z GFS is no bueno
kind of strange weird run be honest, cause the ull it drops down little further south even, should be a nice trowel set up with the energy you would think, then it blows up east of tennessee over the carolinas
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 03, 2021, 11:41:55 PM
If that storm cuts on the Goofus with the blocking then either the blocking is wrong or goofus is wrong.  Any bets which is wrong? Say hello CMC!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 04, 2021, 04:13:20 AM
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/arctic-circle-unusual-temperature-wave-january-2021-fa/?fbclid=IwAR0gKNuKQlpTvvRAHREVjuHe-i2ocdvYuRjicml9f630mD5fKL-YqFdzF6A

Interesting article about happenings in the arctic. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: DocB on January 04, 2021, 06:55:05 AM
Interesting article about happenings in the arctic.
That was an interesting read - thanks for sharing it.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2021, 09:15:51 AM
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/arctic-circle-unusual-temperature-wave-january-2021-fa/?fbclid=IwAR0gKNuKQlpTvvRAHREVjuHe-i2ocdvYuRjicml9f630mD5fKL-YqFdzF6A

Interesting article about happenings in the arctic.
and we wonder what has gone wrong with our winters lately...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2021, 09:21:13 AM
Too many polar bears has increased the polar bear flatulence.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 04, 2021, 09:21:26 AM
and we wonder what has gone wrong with our winters lately...

An unpleasant truth.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2021, 09:57:21 AM
This has been looking more likely in the extended the last few days and what I've been hinting at in regards to having enough cold air to play with. The SSW driven PV split later becomes a PV displacement into northern Siberia. The -NAO blocking however keeps us somewhat in the game to possibly score a system.

https://twitter.com/BretWaltsWx/status/1346056168809099266 (https://twitter.com/BretWaltsWx/status/1346056168809099266)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2021, 10:06:52 AM
This has been looking more likely in the extended the last few days and what I've been hinting at in regards to having enough cold air to play with. The SSW driven PV split later becomes a PV displacement into northern Siberia. The -NAO blocking however keeps us somewhat in the game to possibly score a system.

https://twitter.com/BretWaltsWx/status/1346056168809099266 (https://twitter.com/BretWaltsWx/status/1346056168809099266)
yeah looks like the western hemisphere wins again, least we can save on our electric bill moving forward without the bitter cold, hopefully we can get just enough  cold air to time up some moisture and  get a decent snow before its over
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2021, 10:12:58 AM
yeah looks like the western hemisphere wins again, least we can save on our electric bill moving forward without the bitter cold, hopefully we can get just enough  cold air to time up some moisture nd get a decent snow before its over

It's all a give and take. Which is one of the reasons why weather has always fascinated me. A few years ago, when we had the PV parked up in Canada we complained about it being wasted cold because it was so dang dry. Too cold, too hot but every now and again, it is just right. The Goldilocks Zone.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2021, 10:20:52 AM
It's all a give and take. Which is one of the reasons why weather has always fascinated me. A few years ago, when we had the PV parked up in Canada we complained about it being wasted cold because it was so dang dry. Too cold, too hot but every now and again, it is just right. The Goldilocks Zone.
seems like the good winters like in the 70s  80 s... after a good snow we would get that bitter artic air to come down behind the departing system, it would be the setting stone for the next system to be snow again. but yeah if we do get rtic air like that its just usually bone dry now
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 04, 2021, 10:21:59 AM
I'll pay more for heat. I want it frigid!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2021, 10:25:01 AM
I'll pay more for heat. I want it frigid!
i take frigid if we can get a nice snow on the ground to boot, those are the best
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 04, 2021, 10:26:17 AM
I think the SSW is a work in progress. From what Iíve read, Eurasia gets cold first followed the CONUS after. I will say this..a negative AO/NAO combo, positive PNA, and EPO coming way off its positive phase to neutral- youíre about to see snow and ice pop in some place on about every run from now until that ends. So much for the La NiŮa torch winter.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2021, 10:29:25 AM
I think the SSW is a work in progress. From what Iíve read, Eurasia gets cold first followed the CONUS after. I will say this..a negative AO/NAO combo, positive PNA, and EPO coming way off its positive phase to neutral- youíre about to see snow and ice pop in some place on about every run from now until that ends. So much for the La NiŮa torch winter.
can it get cold enough to time up something along the southern jet, thats the big question.  as it  always seems to be now around here
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 04, 2021, 10:32:46 AM
can it get cold enough to time up something along the southern jet, thats the big question.  as it  always seems to be now around here

idk bruce, I checked dec 2020 temps, there were 11 days in December where we were at least 5 degrees above average high temp...and several of those days were 10 plus degrees above the high....where there were only a few days more than 5 degrees below the average high....seems like all we can do anymore is a day or 2 of a cold shot and then a big warm-up
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 04, 2021, 10:34:03 AM
**** it. This should be snow.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 04, 2021, 10:34:13 AM
Just looking at the extended GEFS, the real response from a SSW looks to make its way into the central plains and into our area around mid month. Thatís an awful frigid pattern and in the coldest time of year. If thatís what happens, again- I bet youíll see winter precip at some place on a given model for quite some time.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 04, 2021, 10:36:52 AM
**** it. This should be snow.

(Attachment Link)

yes isn't it ridiculous, perfect track for the winter yet still too warm...happens every year and it is MADDENING!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2021, 10:37:09 AM
idk bruce, I checked dec 2020 temps, there were 11 days in December where we were at least 5 degrees above average high temp...and several of those days were 10 plus degrees above the high....where there were only a few days more than 5 degrees below the average high....seems like all we can do anymore is a day or 2 of a cold shot and then a big warm-up
exactly, afraid we are just setting up for another free for all cold rains, yuck... we r not going keep this negative nao and ao round forever, better score next 2 to 4 weeks >:D
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2021, 10:48:05 AM
**** it. This should be snow.

Freezing line is well north and everything below 850mb is above freezing. No high to our NW to help feed cold air in. Without that, we are at the mercy of whatever dynamic cooling the storm can produce, which obviously isn't enough.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2021, 10:56:51 AM
Freezing line is well north and everything below 850mb is above freezing. No high to our NW to help feed cold air in. Without that, we are at the mercy of whatever dynamic cooling the storm can produce, which obviously isn't enough.
lord mercy, yet another cold rain setup on gfs for us... ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 04, 2021, 11:14:43 AM
Despite the lack of Arctic air here, there is little "torch" to speak of for a change.  After today, the forecast for my locale has temps remaining in the 40's the rest of the week, which is actually normal for January, and a highly abnormal experience over the last 4 years. It's hard to complain about normal winter weather after seeing flowers blooming and Bradfords budding deep within winter last year, and the year before, and the year before that. . .
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 04, 2021, 11:31:01 AM
Meanwhile...the 12z GFS nails Eastern Tn in 7 day range.


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 04, 2021, 11:32:02 AM
Despite the lack of Arctic air here, there is little "torch" to speak of for a change.  After today, the forecast for my locale has temps remaining in the 40's the rest of the week, which is actually normal for January, and a highly abnormal experience over the last 4 years. It's hard to complain about normal winter weather after seeing flowers blooming and Bradfords budding deep within winter last year, and the year before, and the year before that. . .

true although we did have quite a few torch days already in December, as you say at least the next few days will be at or close to average :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 04, 2021, 11:34:36 AM
This is total opposite of typical snowfall accum for the areas shown. Inverted snow map
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210104/66bf250d1b1a44e4402763951e25abf9.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 04, 2021, 11:50:51 AM
true although we did have quite a few torch days already in December, as you say at least the next few days will be at or close to average :)

Yes, and even the best winters have times of warmth, especially this far south.  The epic winter of '84-'85 was bitter cold in January and the first 2 weeks of February.  However, the last two weeks of December '84 were very warm and spring-like, and the Arctic weather of January came to an abrupt end during the second half of February (after a final heavy snow event).  It was an awesome winter, and it lasted longer than anything seen since, but even it was bookended by a torchy December, and a mild end to February.  In fact, it was so warm the last week of December with strong storms and flooding, I had all but given up on winter in my youthful impatience.  I learned just how quickly a pattern can flip on it's head that year. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 04, 2021, 12:10:59 PM
Yes, and even the best winters have times of warmth, especially this far south.  The epic winter of '84-'85 was bitter cold in January and the first 2 weeks of February.  However, the last two weeks of December '84 were very warm and spring-like, and the Arctic weather of January came to an abrupt end during the second half of February (after a final heavy snow event).  It was an awesome winter, and it lasted longer than anything seen since, but even it was bookended by a torchy December, and a mild end to February.  In fact, it was so warm the last week of December with strong storms and flooding, I had all but given up on winter in my youthful impatience.  I learned just how quickly a pattern can flip on it's head that year.

I can remember several events of what I call "warm , storms then snow" lol a 65 degree day with rain and a little lightning followed by 2 inch type snowfalls , and honestly I don't care for BITTER cold type temps....If I could just have my old average season of about 2 to 3 events of widespread 3-5 inch snows I would be happy , but I have not gotten to use my snow shovel since 2015 and its getting old LOL
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 04, 2021, 12:13:48 PM
lord mercy, yet another cold rain setup on gfs for us... ::bangingheadintowall::

I like cold, rainy days.  >:D >:D >:D
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on January 04, 2021, 12:15:08 PM
I like cold, rainy days.  >:D >:D >:D
33 degrees to boot


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 04, 2021, 12:18:51 PM
I see good times ahead for January, in the words of Kramer you all aren't getting my off this high!!!! ::rofl:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 04, 2021, 12:25:54 PM
Quotes from Eric Webb:   ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::cold::

Quote
Eric Webb
@webberweather

Fwiw, GEFS is starting to get that southern slider look in mid Jan w/ 0C 850 line nearly down to the I-20 corridor. Given this is a damped ens mean & its low-lvl warm bias in the medium-long range this winter... wow.

Really can't ask for a much better pattern esp near peak climo

Quote
the -NAO isn't going anywhere which means the active storm track will likely continue esp for the SE US & Gulf Coast.

Quote
Without a shadow of doubt, mid-January looks like the best hand we've been dealt for cold/snow since 2010. Hopefully we play our cards right.

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 04, 2021, 12:30:30 PM
I see good times ahead for January, in the words of Kramer you all aren't getting my off this high!!!! ::rofl:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

As long as you don't quote him from his stand-up routine  ::whistling::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 04, 2021, 12:30:34 PM
I like cold, rainy days.  >:D >:D >:D

and I thought we were friends LOL
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 04, 2021, 12:32:58 PM
and I thought we were friends LOL

What was your name again?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 04, 2021, 12:39:06 PM
12z euro clown map is going to be wild

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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: bugalou on January 04, 2021, 12:44:34 PM
We may have our first threat of a winter system later this weekend. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 04, 2021, 12:45:54 PM
We may have our first threat of a winter system later this weekend.
  I agree.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 04, 2021, 12:58:19 PM
The euro - on the Wed night system- has favorable 850ís, thickness below 540 and temps in the mid 30ís...so close. It does try and so the weird pivot thing and change it to snow in places. I wouldnít discount it.

Iím curious to see the euro control today for the second system. It was a beast last night.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 04, 2021, 01:48:02 PM
The euro - on the Wed night system- has favorable 850ís, thickness below 540 and temps in the mid 30ís...so close. It does try and so the weird pivot thing and change it to snow in places. I wouldnít discount it.

Iím curious to see the euro control today for the second system. It was a beast last night.

well if nothing else at least a potential northwest trend from the GFS would be in play now lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on January 04, 2021, 01:52:09 PM
well if nothing else at least a potential northwest trend from the GFS would be in play now lol
Living in Indiana for now Iíll take it .


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 04, 2021, 03:01:12 PM
it got eerily quiet in here lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 04, 2021, 03:03:41 PM
it got eerily quiet in here lol

It's the calm before the cold rain
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 04, 2021, 03:25:46 PM
It's the calm before the cold rain

LOL that is perfect
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 04, 2021, 03:30:55 PM
it got eerily quiet in here lol

We've seen this movie before.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 04, 2021, 03:34:43 PM
We've seen this movie before.

'Naders in February?

Naders in February.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2021, 03:42:51 PM
We've seen this movie before.

Some of us have even seen the IMAX version.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 04, 2021, 03:46:51 PM
Yes, and even the best winters have times of warmth, especially this far south.  The epic winter of '84-'85 was bitter cold in January and the first 2 weeks of February.  However, the last two weeks of December '84 were very warm and spring-like, and the Arctic weather of January came to an abrupt end during the second half of February (after a final heavy snow event).  It was an awesome winter, and it lasted longer than anything seen since, but even it was bookended by a torchy December, and a mild end to February.  In fact, it was so warm the last week of December with strong storms and flooding, I had all but given up on winter in my youthful impatience.  I learned just how quickly a pattern can flip on it's head that year.
Even in the 70's especially 76, December was warm in fact Christmas was very warm, but once January came in it flipped on a dime. That's how it happens here. 2 of the best winters in my lifetime had warm decembers and quickly warmed once in the second week of Feb or shortly after. 1976 and 1985, but the month of January and the 3-4 weeks winter was here it was rocking! Even the best winters in Tennessee, 3-4 weeks of the good stuff is about a top end winter. I feel good about this month. I don't know if this first system will get it done or not, but from mid month through the first week of Feb. looks good at this range. Nothing in the south is certain, but you got to like our chances. ::popcorn::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Uncle Nasty on January 04, 2021, 03:48:08 PM
with a massive bullseye on alexandria louisiana LOL.....would be nice
Don't forget the bullseye of no snow depicted right over Chattanooga!

That's typical here. We get the occasional decent snow here and have had some very good snows in Chattanooga in the last 10 years. We have to have perfect conditions or a nice ULL track over us

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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 04, 2021, 03:54:41 PM
Sneaky little system coming through eastern areas tonight/tomorrow.  Mostly rain in the lower elevations, but higher places will see a decent thump of snow.

Quote
All in all, the most significant
accumulations of snowfall will be above 4kft where upward of 2-4
inches is possible through the entire event, with the highest peaks
above 5kft seeing accumulations closer to 5-6 inches.  Therefore,
will forgo issuance of any advisories at this time and will issue
an SPS with such wording and also mention in the HWO.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 04, 2021, 04:36:15 PM
Some of us have even seen the IMAX version.

that would be me lol, I don't think many people have been as legitimately snow starved as my area has been ...I am hoping :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2021, 05:08:16 PM
If you look at the 18z GFS16 at hour 150... ::yum::

Then you advance ahead 2 frames and.... ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 04, 2021, 05:13:39 PM
If you look at the 18z GFS16 at hour 150... ::yum::

Then you advance ahead 2 frames and.... ::evillaugh::
Donít fall for it itís a Mirage
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: bugalou on January 04, 2021, 05:44:22 PM
I don't know. I am cautiously optimistic.  The NAO has been behaving in a way that favors us storm track wise where we end up on the flat base of trofs or just slightly downwind on the NW flow aloft.  There is no lack of activity coming in from the pacific either.  Its really just about getting enough cold air depth this far south.  I am a little afraid of an ice storm if I am being honest. If we end up in the flat part of a trof we could see some big time overrunning and with the NAO the way it is it will be slow to move.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 04, 2021, 07:08:35 PM
I don't know. I am cautiously optimistic.  The NAO has been behaving in a way that favors us storm track wise where we end up on the flat base of trofs or just slightly downwind on the NW flow aloft.  There is no lack of activity coming in from the pacific either.  Its really just about getting enough cold air depth this far south.  I am a little afraid of an ice storm if I am being honest. If we end up in the flat part of a trof we could see some big time overrunning and with the NAO the way it is it will be slow to move.
I believe more snow or sleet in a NAO setup. They usually provide deeper cold air. If we ever get a -epo, then that is when I'm concerned for not only ice, but bitter cold air, depending on the ridge.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 04, 2021, 07:18:37 PM
The nail in the coffin for me would be if mississippi and alabama were to get snowfall and Tennessee miss out, that is always the most painful miss that we get in my opinion ....it has happened quite often in the past decade :( If that looks like it will happen i am going to visit my family in north Alabama on the tn river lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2021, 07:22:13 PM
The nail in the coffin for me would be if mississippi and alabama were to get snowfall and Tennessee miss out, that is always the most painful miss that we get in my opinion ....it has happened quite often in the past decade :( If that looks like it will happen i am going to visit my family in north Alabama on the tn river lol
north alabama? you may have to go to birmingham... lol. calling mundie... lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 04, 2021, 07:23:51 PM
north alabama? you may have to go to birmingham... lol. calling mundie... lol
Bruce you jaded like rest of us 🙂
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 04, 2021, 08:12:45 PM
Iím not jaded. Iím gonna get mine.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 04, 2021, 09:10:00 PM
It looks like the Johnson City area may be in line for a couple chances. Time will tell


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 04, 2021, 09:38:46 PM
Canadian & NAM both bring the SLP for the midweek storm further south. Models did have it hovering near the MS/TN state line, but these two are showing it along the coast on the 0z runs
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 04, 2021, 10:11:40 PM
The possible and becoming more probable pattern for this area is making me want to smack yo momma.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2021, 10:15:57 PM
Good to see the GFS run heavy snow through central AL this run.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 04, 2021, 10:19:13 PM
(http://[attachimg=1])
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2021, 10:26:29 PM
GFS16 at hour 150 looks good for southern TN.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 04, 2021, 10:26:56 PM
Good to see the GFS run heavy snow through central AL this run.
Right where we want it right now! NW Trend do your thing! ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 04, 2021, 10:28:51 PM
(http:// (Attachment Link) )
GFS looking better...Looks like the snow is more expansive on the NW side. I'm curious if that will increase as we get closer to the event.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2021, 10:31:22 PM
On GFS16, once again just as it looks like its getting organized, it falls apart and becomes a weak strung out mess. Nothing wants to pop in this pattern.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 04, 2021, 10:32:36 PM
GFS16 at hour 150 looks good for southern TN.  ::snowman::

Yeah it looks much better. It has been actually closer to the euro solution too so I'm curious to see what tonight's euro will look like 🤞 hoping my little corner or Mississippi can get something
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 04, 2021, 10:43:48 PM
Yeah it looks much better. It has been actually closer to the euro solution too so I'm curious to see what tonight's euro will look like 🤞 hoping my little corner or Mississippi can get something

Definitely looking better... Southern have of Arkansas FTW.::snowman::

(https://i.imgur.com/lJMy3dn.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 04, 2021, 10:44:14 PM
GFSv16 is a statewide hit (except the donut hole from Trenton to Dresden). From Thurs-Mon.


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2021, 10:49:04 PM
Calling mundie....! Gfs says hi
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2021, 10:54:49 PM
If Knoxville gets another big snow, we're creating a seperate sub forum for East TN.  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 04, 2021, 11:30:59 PM
If Knoxville gets another big snow, we're creating a seperate sub forum for East TN.  ::evillaugh::
. Iíll Have you know that even here in the Northern Valley its been since 1996 since weíve seen 7Ē or more in one snowfall. I missed out in Dec 2018 by 10 miles of getting over 7Ē (we got 5Ē). I got 4.5Ē on Christmas Eve. If we cant get over 7Ē I want several 3-6Ē .


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 05, 2021, 12:23:31 AM
Wanna play? I haven't seen greater than 2" since 2016.

I'm sure many in the southern half of the state can one-up me.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 05, 2021, 12:36:08 AM
0z euro says no snow...

For anyone 😂🤣[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 05, 2021, 12:50:36 AM
Euro an East Tn hit on Friday

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210105/3b34c0adc02dd11cf9388929dbb393c1.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 05, 2021, 12:55:17 AM
GFSv16 agrees with Euro

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210105/236869994f4d660c8732430bcea5fb85.jpg)

 

CMC does too

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210105/3f0b413d0df467d84f7dc2c525d49c1f.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 05, 2021, 06:54:56 AM
Looks like some opportunities over the next 2 weeks on latest GFS.  ::rofl::

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 05, 2021, 07:20:14 AM
Interesting that after several years of a mostly +AO (especially during winter), that it's dove so deep into negative territory now, and wants to stay there for the foreseeable future.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 05, 2021, 07:33:38 AM
There are no less than four legit threats on the 06Z GFS. Surely we can get at least one of them to work for most of the board. I hate to quote people from other places, but when Eric Webb gets excited its hard to ignore.
Eric Webb:
Quote
The pattern ~Jan 20 on both the GEFS & EPS is honestly nothing short of legendary.

Like 2013-14, we're starting to see a legit -EPO push into the arctic that's forcing the tropospheric polar vortex over the Canadian Archipelago towards south-central Canada, but like 2009-10/2010-11, we have a very strong/persistent -AO/west-based -NAO thanks to a major mid-winter SSWE. And to top it off we're doing all this during peak winter climo!

It's so rare to see us get the best both worlds, but it actually looks like that might be the case here in late January.

Knowing what might be coming around the corner, my hype levels are thru the roof right now.

Anything we get prior to mid-month looks like a bonus.
::snowman:: ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 05, 2021, 07:39:35 AM
Interesting that after several years of a mostly +AO (especially during winter), that it's dove so deep into negative territory now, and wants to stay there for the foreseeable future.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif)
maybe to negative for us . Could be looking at a snowstorm  further to the south of us. It has merit. Were is the se ridge at when you need it .?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 05, 2021, 07:49:14 AM
maybe to negative for us . Could be looking a snowstorm  further to the south of us. It has merit. Were is the se ridge at when you need it .?

If the solid gold pattern develops as predicted I would be very surprised if we don't get missed at least once to the south. I'd go ahead and plan on it. However, the the odds will be in our favor over a longer period of time to score. I wouldn't even think of swapping places with the Deep South. We've been in a long term rut, but don't forget we are fully capable of multiple hits in a row throughout the state of TN with the right pattern. That happening in the Deep South is waaaay less likely than in Tennessee.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 05, 2021, 07:50:10 AM
I always love reading the AFDs from LZK. Also, look at how little MEG states this morning. This is LZK regrading the potential Sunday-Monday storm.

"Attention quickly shifts to the next system which is progged to come ashore invof the CA/OR border on Friday. Medium range guidance paints a complex picture in the mid-levels with several disturbances/lows over the CONUS late week into the weekend. Attm, do expect the western trough in question to cross the Rockies and deepen Friday into Saturday. Concurrently, northern stream energy from Canada will drop south and appears to phase with the incoming trough around Sunday-ish. This will result in large-scale troughing stretching from Canada southward across the US to Mexico during the weekend and help set the stage for a potential southern US winter event Sunday into Monday. Unfortunately but not surprisingly, uncertainty is very high concerning this potential event. The timing and movement of mid- level impulses will be key in where this system`s surface low develops. Where that occurs and precisely where the low tracks will be key in nailing down temps, precip types, and any potential accumulation going forward. Guidance continues trending incrementally farther south (especially the 00Z ECMWF... who wants snow at the beach??), thus confidence is *slowly* increasing concerning snow potential across southern AR in the Sunday/Monday time frame. It is still too early to flesh out any particular scenarios, however.

Based on the trends, lowered initialized temps Sunday and Monday given the now increasing potential for colder air with a more southerly storm track. Did also trim the northern extent of PoP in line with trends, but not confident enough to make significant changes from initialized model blend output attm. This results in at least a low-end chance of seeing snowfall (with some rain mixing in where temps are too warm for all snow) over roughly the southern two- thirds of the state, although the highest relative probabilities are over southern AR.

Accumulating snow will be possible in the southern half of Arkansas Sunday and Sunday night, again with the highest relative probability over southern portions of the state. How much? To be honest, no idea at this point and no inclination to "guess" knowing how uncertain the forecast is and how much potential exists for major changes. Bottom line: the winter grinder continues, so keep checking in for updates each day. Major kudos to WFOs SHV, TSA, SGF, and JAN for outstanding collaboration this morning! And best of luck all those trying to communicate this complex scenario. Where is the headache medicine?"

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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 05, 2021, 08:00:41 AM
maybe to negative for us

We'll call it the Bruce Pattern.   >:D

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 05, 2021, 08:14:29 AM
We'll call it the Bruce Pattern.   >:D

bwahahahaÖ.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 05, 2021, 08:16:32 AM
I will say this....if we don't start to see northwest trends in the next 24-36 hours I will be very upset, and if the moisture stays to our south yet again as it did many times in the 2010's I wish them the COLDEST RAIN they ever had and not a single snowflake LOL....yes I am that jaded hahahaha!!!!!!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 05, 2021, 08:44:41 AM
If long range ensembles are correct in building a nice big beautiful ridge to our west which will allow some seasonal to slightly below normal temps back into Canada and the NAO blocking relaxes a little, I like where this pattern is heading from mid-January on.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 05, 2021, 08:46:13 AM
I will say this....if we don't start to see northwest trends in the next 24-36 hours I will be very upset, and if the moisture stays to our south yet again as it did many times in the 2010's I wish them the COLDEST RAIN they ever had and not a single snowflake LOL....yes I am that jaded hahahaha!!!!!!

With you on that. We're talking Mississippi and Alabama. They deserve nothing.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on January 05, 2021, 09:13:15 AM
I will say this....if we don't start to see northwest trends in the next 24-36 hours I will be very upset, and if the moisture stays to our south yet again as it did many times in the 2010's I wish them the COLDEST RAIN they ever had and not a single snowflake LOL....yes I am that jaded hahahaha!!!!!!

Don't wish for the northwest trend too soon, or it will end up in Chicago.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 05, 2021, 09:16:57 AM
With you on that. We're talking Mississippi and Alabama. They deserve nothing.

except a Heisman and hopefully the national championship again this year for my Tide :)...but I wish them no snow for sure LOL
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 05, 2021, 09:42:08 AM
UPDATE: 12z GFS is crazy warm....like 5-6F warmer.   ::bagoverhead::

NAM12 says game on for folks between I-65 and the Plateau.  East TN gets some flakeage, too.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021010512/namconus_asnow_seus_29.png)

Very similar to the 0z Euro...maybe a degree or two colder.  Thermals are going to be uber-critical.

12z NAM Cobb data for BNA is RASN, Manchester is 1.7", Crossville is 5.7". 

12z NAM12 skew for BNA.  Column is saturated and surface temp says 34F.  I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that's a rain/snow mix at the onset. 

(https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2021010512_063_36.09--86.83.png)

3 hours later for BNA.  Column still saturated with 33F.  That's snow, especially at elevation.

(https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2021010512_066_36.09--86.83.png)

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 05, 2021, 10:15:07 AM
except a Heisman and hopefully the national championship again this year for my Tide :)...but I wish them no snow for sure LOL

You ate paint chips as a child
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 05, 2021, 10:17:27 AM
12z GFS follows the Oz and basically keeps snow away from almost everyone for the Sunday-Monday storm with the exception being east TN.[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 05, 2021, 10:22:12 AM
[attachimg=1]
12z GFS follows the Oz and basically keeps snow away from almost everyone for the Sunday-Monday storm with the exception being east TN. (Attachment Link)

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 05, 2021, 10:30:10 AM
You ate paint chips as a child

lol naw, I was 6 when Bama won the 1992 national championship and my uncle lived in Birmingham and we were visiting him,  so I was indoctrinated lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 05, 2021, 10:36:23 AM
lol naw, I was 6 when Bama won the 1992 national championship and my uncle lived in Birmingham and we were visiting him,  so I was indoctrinated lol

It's okay. You could be an LSU fan. I don't even think they are human.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 05, 2021, 10:50:49 AM
(Attachment Link)

I am hoping for a flip on next runs :), if nothing else at least temps are going to be at or near avg for little while it seems, so it won't take much to get us some below normal temps and hopefully some moisture soon :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on January 05, 2021, 11:29:02 AM
It's okay. You could be an LSU fan. I don't even think they are human.

(https://gif-finder.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Kevin-Kline-Apologize.gif)

I know we smell like corndogs and talk a little funny, but we're still homo sapiens. At least we all hate Florida.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 05, 2021, 11:49:03 AM
Appears to be a very slow day today in the weather world ... I was just checking in around lunch time at work . Yíall carry on.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on January 05, 2021, 11:56:23 AM
(https://gif-finder.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Kevin-Kline-Apologize.gif)

I know we smell like corndogs and talk a little funny, but we're still homo sapiens. At least we all hate Florida.

(https://ftw.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/90/2015/11/perry.gif)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 05, 2021, 12:00:08 PM
Appears to be a very slow day today in the weather world ... I was just checking in around lunch time at work . Yíall carry on.

well bruce it just looks like we are in wait mode again huh lol....maybe we can get a model change for our good for once :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 05, 2021, 12:10:03 PM
Appears to be a very slow day today in the weather world ... I was just checking in around lunch time at work . Yíall carry on.

Wait.  I call BS.  This sentence is written too well to be Bruce.  Somebody hacked you, my dude. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 05, 2021, 12:26:30 PM
Euro says western NC is the sweet spot with this week's storm.  At least this run does.  Either way, they seem to be in a very good spot for the moment. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: AdamLewis on January 05, 2021, 12:29:39 PM
If I am looking at the potential for snow on Friday, how far out does the NAM really paint an accurate picture?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: bugalou on January 05, 2021, 12:33:26 PM
I believe more snow or sleet in a NAO setup. They usually provide deeper cold air. If we ever get a -epo, then that is when I'm concerned for not only ice, but bitter cold air, depending on the ridge.

It is exceedingly rare to see snow here in overrunning events except in the extreme NW of the state.  I would argue between sleet and ZR as that matters way too much on the column profile which is impossible to forecast from general teleconnections/synoptic setups.  The mean trough position scream overrunning to me though if the flow splits (generally nashville westward).

The system next week I getting the attention of a few AFDs in the area - thats always a positive sign. MEG is as tightlipped as ever though.   :D
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 05, 2021, 12:40:09 PM
If I am looking at the potential for snow on Friday, how far out does the NAM really paint an accurate picture?

At this point, not that much. The NAM's range is at its extreme right now if you're looking at Friday. You can start taking it more seriously around 48-60 hours out.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on January 05, 2021, 12:47:56 PM
The GFS giveth, but mostly taketh away  ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 05, 2021, 12:55:50 PM
Being more of a cold-core upper level low, Thursday/Friday's system will be tricky at best.  Even the timing (day vs nighttime temps) may play a part in what falls. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: joemomma on January 05, 2021, 02:49:08 PM
Much colder today than what was forecast.  Forecast was for 43, which it is in Sparta (where our reporting station is now), but it is 39 in town and 37 north of town.  Amazing that Cookeville has a HI effect now.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 05, 2021, 03:01:06 PM
18z NAM = moisture-starved.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 05, 2021, 03:21:32 PM
18z NAM = moisture-starved.
Almost every short range model has moved even further south taking almost any QPF of significance out of the state. Jerks.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 05, 2021, 03:24:26 PM
idk on James spann shows euro increasing mid tn chances today based on ensembles? shows 40% chance for mid tn to get an inch or more of snow? this am it was at 10-20%? nobody knows right now, 6 days away y'all, could be and could bust...it's Tennessee :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 05, 2021, 03:45:33 PM
idk on James spann shows euro increasing mid tn chances today based on ensembles? shows 40% chance for mid tn to get an inch or more of snow? this am it was at 10-20%? nobody knows right now, 6 days away y'all, could be and could bust...it's Tennessee :)
No we are taking about tomorrow nights system. The ďlaterĒ system was completely suppressed today by all globals.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 05, 2021, 04:21:35 PM
Thursday/Friday.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErAEb8NXAAAxLAX?format=jpg&name=900x900)

Quote
Into Thursday, a strong upper-level low pressure will swing to our
south bringing prcp and even some mixed prcp potential into
Friday morning. Models continue to have this low pressure system
swing through Northern MS and AL, with 850mb temps cooling rapidly
as the system moves eastward. Surface temps are expected to
remain above freezing throughout the day on Thursday, so expect
most of the prcp to be rain across the area. Can't rule out a
little mixed prcp early on Thursday if showers arrive early
enough, but thinking most of the moisture will move in once temps
are above-freezing. The growing question mark in the forecast
will be for late Thursday night into early Friday morning. The
ECMWF continues to have moisture linger across Middle TN into the
morning hours Friday, with the GFS keeping a little more moisture
behind compared to earlier runs. Confidence is increasing that
some snow showers may be possible, especially along the Plateau,
late Thursday into early Friday. As per usual, it will be a race
between the moisture and cooler temps. Temps aloft will certainly
be cold enough for snow to develop, but surface temps will cool a
little slower so could get some mixed prcp in the mix before a
changeover to snow showers. For now, expecting little to no
accumulation west of the Cumberland Plateau with accumulations
around 1/2" up to an 1" across the Plateau.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 05, 2021, 04:23:03 PM
No we are taking about tomorrow nights system. The ďlaterĒ system was completely suppressed today by all globals.
I'll take my chances on this look in this timeframe. Might not work out but better than being in the bullseye imo.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 05, 2021, 04:23:41 PM
Thursday/Friday.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErAEb8NXAAAxLAX?format=jpg&name=900x900)

You can see the small areas Along I-65 in Brentwood, Forrest Hills, Bellevue ect. 925mb temps are going to likely support snowfall. Surface temps will likely not support accumulation unless we get some decent snowfall rates.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 05, 2021, 04:26:03 PM
Aye! My Fairview Island!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 05, 2021, 05:01:02 PM
I think north of 40 and maybe most of TN will have a hard time getting strong enough precip rates to help enough with mixing to see much if any snow.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Beth on January 05, 2021, 05:06:31 PM
Aye! My Fairview Island!
Dickson Island, tiny blob right over me.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 05, 2021, 07:05:05 PM
No we are taking about tomorrow nights system. The ďlaterĒ system was completely suppressed today by all globals.

Yes ,however the ensembles on his weather extreme video have the euro showing mid Tennessee at 40% at 3:30pm today , he is big on ensemble data as opposed to model runs 6 days out....we shall see :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 05, 2021, 07:17:20 PM
wouldn't a big ULL surprise storm be wonderful lol :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 05, 2021, 08:44:12 PM
EAST TENNESSEE!!!
The NAM for Friday

No way this verifies. But, its almost 60 hours out.
Ho-Lee-Sh**



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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 05, 2021, 08:52:21 PM
EAST TENNESSEE!!!
The NAM for Friday

No way this verifies. But, its almost 60 hours out.
Ho-Lee-Sh**



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Guess I better buy more batteries.   ::wow:: :laugh:
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 05, 2021, 08:54:52 PM
EAST TENNESSEE FOLKS!
(Lol. I live almost directly under that 11.6)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210106/e424626e2d227cd51b7e15b395a13258.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 05, 2021, 08:57:19 PM
This is my opinion. We still have a ways to go before we get into a pattern that favors winter weather for the midsouth. We have to continue to be patient as we can.  ::pondering::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 05, 2021, 09:00:29 PM
Yep looks like snow dome is fully functional for West & Mid TN.  I never had my hopes up but it would be nice to do some sledding to get my familyís mind off Covid and this crazy world we live in. Iím holding out hope but once mid Feb gets here.  Iím ready for spring. It will be a welcome to get more outdoors after this Covid winter!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 05, 2021, 09:10:41 PM
Guess I better buy more batteries.   ::wow:: :laugh:
18z Euro is drinkin what the NAM is lol.
If GFS shows up to this party drunk, then Iím in


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 05, 2021, 09:11:21 PM
As James Spann is fond of saying, "Upper level low, weatherman's woe."  This system definitely has the potential to pull off a surprise or two.  I think western NC and parts of the piedmont over there stand the best chance of seeing heavy amounts, but areas further west could have a surprise, even parts of the mid state.  Timing (day vs night), ground level temps, and precipitation rates will be key.  Heavy snow can reach the ground with marginal temps and pile up.  I'm not sold that this system can produce those rates if temps are well above freezing, but who knows at this point. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 05, 2021, 09:21:45 PM
EAST TENNESSEE FOLKS!
(Lol. I live almost directly under that 11.6)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210106/e424626e2d227cd51b7e15b395a13258.jpg)


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No way in **** the I-65 corridor gets more than the Plateau.  GTFOH NAM.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 05, 2021, 09:23:41 PM
No way in **** the I-65 corridor gets more than the Plateau.  GTFOH NAM.

never know, sometimes it happens, depends on where the bands setup if they are there at all

wonder if elevation will help this event along souther rim....i am at around 1,000 here in lewis county
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 05, 2021, 10:26:01 PM
0z NAM COBB looking impressive for Morristown on Friday. Looks like about .75 QPF of Snow and .30 or so of Rain/Snow. Ratios around 15:1 for 3 hours.

Assuming Im reading the tea leaves properly lol. I rarely check COBB.


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Susan on January 05, 2021, 11:40:15 PM
Speaking of Spann ...

[attachimg=1]

As James Spann is fond of saying, "Upper level low, weatherman's woe."  This system definitely has the potential to pull off a surprise or two.  I think western NC and parts of the piedmont over there stand the best chance of seeing heavy amounts, but areas further west could have a surprise, even parts of the mid state.  Timing (day vs night), ground level temps, and precipitation rates will be key.  Heavy snow can reach the ground with marginal temps and pile up.  I'm not sold that this system can produce those rates if temps are well above freezing, but who knows at this point.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Woodvegas on January 06, 2021, 12:38:02 AM
1/6 OZ Euro showing some love for eastern middle TN for Thursday night.

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 06, 2021, 01:05:02 AM
0z euro coming back north a little for early next week 🤞
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 06, 2021, 01:06:27 AM
0z euro also bringing more snow for the ULL in a couple of days 🤞
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 06, 2021, 05:17:54 AM
The Euro is called Dr. No by some in the weather community. I find it interesting that at the moment it is the more aggressive snow model for the next two systems.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Susan on January 06, 2021, 07:05:10 AM
Quote
National Weather Service Nashville TN
243 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Clouds off to the northeast creeping their way southwestward
towards the mid state this morning, but the clear skies and cold
temps allowing for some freezing fog to develop especially near
bodies of water. Satellite/obs showing some freezing fog along the
Cumberland River east of Nashville and around other lakes/river
east of I-65. High clouds in the west are also streaming in aloft
which should help limit fog development for western areas this
morning. Conditions will be dry today and tonight before the
Plains trough moves east towards the area overnight.

Models continue to track the upper low slightly further north,
but still along the TN/AL border by this evening. Before that,
chances for rain and even the leading edge of a rain/snow mix will
move in Thursday morning after sunrise. Chances for rain will
spread northeastward during the day, with most of the better
chances at rain south of I-40. After 00Z, the upper low looks to
be near the TN/AL/GA border right as temps fall behind surface
northerly flow and diurnal effects. Rain will change to a
rain/snow mix followed by all snow by around midnight. At
midnight, most of the snow chances will be for the southeast half
of the mid state, especially for the Plateau.
Model cross sections
and soundings showing good near surface moisture, as well as
decent omega values. Best omega values are along the southern half
of the Plateau closer to the upper low. GFS/NAM also showing good
Q-vector convergence on the Plateau after 00Z through around 09Z,
and with northerly flow near the surface, some orographic help
will be in place for the Plateau to squeeze a bit more of that
moisture out for snowfall. Current models showing around an inch
for the Plateau, especially for the southern half where the better
lift is located. Isolated amounts up to around 2 inches is not out
of the question, but models could easily flip the other way and
start trending downward over the next few runs so kept snow
amounts around the model average. For areas west of the Plateau
and east of the I-65 corridor, a dusting to around a half inch
will be possible. It will all depend on how quickly the transition
to snow occurs Thursday evening and how much moisture is left over
west of the Plateau.


Flurries and light snow will continue around sunrise on the
Plateau, and if enough moisture is left over, some rain will mix
in before precip chances end by the early afternoon. Cloud cover
will hang around thanks to a weak upper shortwave behind the main
upper low, but conditions will be dry at the surface. The weekend
looks to be dry as well, but still cool with highs in the upper
30s to low 40s. Models still have the next upper low for Sunday
night into Monday, but now all models have pushed the low further
south and the moisture followed. The ECMWF does have the low
moving northeastward on Monday and getting some precip here by
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, which may bring some
snow to the Plateau again, but right now that`s the only model
showing precip with this low and not much west of the Plateau.
Conditions look dry Tuesday and Wednesday but the GFS/ECMWF are
hinting at a Midwest trough diving southeastward late Wednesday
into Thursday, and may have enough moisture for some rain/snow.
But this is the first set of runs that have shown this wave, so
can`t put too much weight on that just yet.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 07:29:29 AM
Heavy snow areas keep bouncing around on the NAM.  Understandable when dealing with a system like this. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 06, 2021, 07:57:26 AM
12z HRRR.  Very similar to the latest OHX call. 

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021010612/hrrr_asnow_seus_48.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 06, 2021, 08:26:40 AM
12Z NAM looks pretty good for much of middle and east TN. Probably we are being NAMMED, but its fun to watch. I can't remember how to post the accum maps, anybody point me in the right direction?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 06, 2021, 08:31:16 AM
NAM says I-40 & South,I-81 & East special, minus far west TN


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 08:41:26 AM
wouldn't a nice 2003 ULL surprise be nice tomorrow night :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Susan on January 06, 2021, 08:51:03 AM
12Z NAM looks pretty good for much of middle and east TN. Probably we are being NAMMED, but its fun to watch. I can't remember how to post the accum maps, anybody point me in the right direction?

Had to relearn this myself last night.   :)
Download the photo you wish to share, then use the attach option.

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 06, 2021, 08:58:41 AM
NAM has been all over the place with amounts and areas getting accumulation. Thereís huge bust potential. Need to start seeing consistency from update to update. Higher confidence is Southern Tn I-65 to I-75 corridor, currently. And Foothills/Mtns in East Tn. Other areas still iffy. Even Northern Plateau.


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 06, 2021, 09:00:31 AM
12Z NAM looks pretty good for much of middle and east TN. Probably we are being NAMMED, but its fun to watch. I can't remember how to post the accum maps, anybody point me in the right direction?

Either save it as an attachment and upload it as such, or right-click on the image and choose "copy image address".  Select the image button between the red circle F and world icons on the post page and paste the link between the (img)  (/img).

12z NAM3
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021010612/nam3km_asnow_seus_61.png)

Highland Rim gets snow-holed. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 06, 2021, 09:16:45 AM
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021010612/namconus_asnow_seus_22.png)

Got it! Thanks
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on January 06, 2021, 09:21:35 AM
NAM gonna NAM. I favor the HRRR projections on this one for the plateau eastward. I'm not buying it's western Highland Rim accumulations. That said, I won't turn down the NAM projections.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 09:26:22 AM
I think anyone who happens to get under the upper low with the coldest temperatures aloft has a decent shot at flakage IF precipitation rates are high enough.  The 1998 surprise snow I mentioned in the other thread was a similar set-up.  That low was nearly stationary for a time, unlike this one, but if heavy enough snow falls aloft, it cools the column and makes it to the ground.  Most of that snow fell and stuck with temps slightly ABOVE freezing (33-34F), and snow started falling while near 40, but precip rates were intense.  Can this system do that?  Maybe, but if you're around 40 and the precipitation is light, chances are you'll stay rain.  It's the areas that get under a "burst" of heavier precip that stand the best chance of seeing a changeover, even if temporary. This may be one of those situations where snow falls when precip rates are high, but it goes back to rain/mixture when intensity lessens.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2021, 09:48:43 AM
It sucks now we got depend on heavy  precip rates now to even see snow fall . Lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 09:59:08 AM
It sucks now we got depend on heavy  precip rates now to even see snow fall . Lol

bruce , been waiting on ya to chime in today my man :)

Is it just me or does the euro for sunday/Monday system bring more moisture our way , looks like it flip flopped again, euro ensembles have 40% chances of an inch or snow for most of mid state? who knows lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2021, 10:05:34 AM
bruce , been waiting on ya to chime in today my man :)

Is it just me or does the euro for sunday/Monday system bring more moisture our way , looks like it flip flopped again, euro ensembles have 40% chances of an inch or snow for most of mid state? who knows lol
yeah lookin like it ... think u stand better chance than most of us in west tennessee.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 06, 2021, 10:23:18 AM
GFS and Euro have instituted the NW trend on Mondayís system (0z Euro and 12z GFS). Hopefully 12z Euro continues this.

Friday is still highly uncertain. Even the NAM is inconsistent. Hopefully the 18z run shows some consistency. HRRR 18z should be in play for East Tn. Letís see how it looks here soon.


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 10:58:36 AM
GFS and Euro have instituted the NW trend on Mondayís system (0z Euro and 12z GFS). Hopefully 12z Euro continues this.

Friday is still highly uncertain. Even the NAM is inconsistent. Hopefully the 18z run shows some consistency. HRRR 18z should be in play for East Tn. Letís see how it looks here soon.


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one thing I noticed on sunday /Monday is even though nw trend slightly started, it also looks a bit warmer :(
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 06, 2021, 11:08:23 AM
GFS and Euro have instituted the NW trend on Mondayís system (0z Euro and 12z GFS). Hopefully 12z Euro continues this.

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Canadian with a huge shift NW as well:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021010612/gem_asnow24_seus_21.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 11:10:19 AM
Canadian with a huge shift NW as well:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021010612/gem_asnow24_seus_21.png)

I would take that :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 11:13:48 AM
Without a massive Arctic high or deep East Coast trough to suppress systems, I was wondering why some models suddenly showed a squashed storm in the Gulf.  Looks like they might be correcting the error. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 11:21:17 AM
the sunday Monday system is the one I am paying attention to , this Thursday night think may surprise a few but sunday/Monday has me very interested :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: AdamLewis on January 06, 2021, 11:41:09 AM
Newbie question...

What is the difference between NAM 3km and NAM 12km?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 06, 2021, 11:43:32 AM
Either save it as an attachment and upload it as such, or right-click on the image and choose "copy image address".  Select the image button between the red circle F and world icons on the post page and paste the link between the (img)  (/img).

12z NAM3

Highland Rim gets snow-holed.

I think that is a good general map for middleTN and confirms the way I see it playing out. Generally south of 40 and the higher elevation the better.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 06, 2021, 11:44:06 AM
Newbie question...

What is the difference between NAM 3km and NAM 12km?

Higher resolution.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2021, 11:44:20 AM
the sunday Monday system is the one I am paying attention to , this Thursday night think may surprise a few but sunday/Monday has me very interested :)
nam 3k. 12 k r short range
Title: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 06, 2021, 11:49:44 AM
Newbie question...

What is the difference between NAM 3km and NAM 12km?
NAM 12k goes out 84 hours
NAM 3k is a higher resolution and goes out 60 hours.

NAM3k > NAM 12k

Fwiw, NAM 3k nailed East Tn Christmas Eve Storm at about 36-48 hours out.


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 06, 2021, 11:50:15 AM
the sunday Monday system is the one I am paying attention to , this Thursday night think may surprise a few but sunday/Monday has me very interested :)
Seems like the 12z GFS, 12z Canadian, and the 0z Euro all began bringing the SLP back north rather than suppressing it. Maybe a trend? 12z euro trickling now

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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 11:57:09 AM
Seems like the 12z GFS, 12z Canadian, and the 0z Euro all began bringing the SLP back north rather than suppressing it. Maybe a trend? 12z euro trickling now

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yep...I think yesterdays runs were outliers in my opinion , I could be wrong, but the trend is bringing it ever closer to our favor
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 12:00:30 PM
It sucks now we got depend on heavy  precip rates now to even see snow fall . Lol

(https://celebritycovernews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ccelebritiesyoda-folded-hands-880x660.jpg)

Hmmm. Snow when one rarely sees, should not complain on how they receive it.. Yrsssss.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 06, 2021, 12:38:11 PM
Wave 2 has been my focus, the trend is our friend! A surprise for somebody out of wave 1 is possible. It's tracking time in Tennessee!!!!!! ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 06, 2021, 12:39:30 PM
Wave 2 has been my focus, the trend is our friend! A surprise for somebody out of wave 1 is possible. It's tracking time in Tennessee!!!!!! ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::

Euro says otherwise. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 06, 2021, 12:42:14 PM
Nice euro run for Arkansas and West Tennessee for the weekend. That baby is going northwest
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 06, 2021, 12:44:14 PM
Models have definitely taken a jog north with the SLP bringing a storm back into okay for west TN early next week
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 06, 2021, 12:48:18 PM
Curt and I win this Euro run. On to the next.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 06, 2021, 12:49:20 PM
Nice euro run for Arkansas and West Tennessee for the weekend. That baby is going northwest
Yep I liked that euro run. Pretty much all models have been trending nw with the 2nd wave. ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 06, 2021, 01:56:51 PM
12z Canadian near statewide hit Mon/Tues.

12z Euro West Tn hit Mon

12z GFS East Tn hit Mon




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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 02:08:23 PM
so on this ULL thing tomorrow night am I crazy for thinking it is a south of I-40 type of an event? Seems like nws and local mets are just going with their usual failsafe talking about the plateau to me? IDK some runs I have seen sure seem like an I-40 south type of thing, but what do I know lol...just enough to get me in trouble :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 06, 2021, 02:18:04 PM
I need a distraction.

America needs a distraction.

Let it snow.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 02:24:47 PM
I need a distraction.

America needs a distraction.

Let it snow.

America needs a tranquillizer. 

Quote
Tranquilizer, also spelled Tranquillizer, drug that is used to reduce anxiety, fear, tension, agitation, and related states of mental disturbance.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 06, 2021, 02:28:21 PM
18z NAM just BURIED East Tn Friday


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 06, 2021, 02:36:02 PM
18z NAM just BURIED East Tn Friday


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Bury us from coast to coast. Keep everyone at home.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 02:42:34 PM
A bit difficult to get excited about winter weather when the country seems to be on the brink of unraveling at the seams.  But, I enjoyed a day of sitting in the dim sun under a veil of thick cirrostratus and temps stuck below 45.  It felt like January.  So, there is that.

And I have a full bottle of Jack.  Was savin' it for the next snow storm.  But, I may break it open early.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 02:51:31 PM
WSW issued for the Smokies and all of western NC.

Quote
..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of up to
  4-6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest North
  Carolina.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 06, 2021, 02:52:58 PM
18z NAM just BURIED East Tn Friday


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Actually that NAM run was good for pretty much all of middle tn as well. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 06, 2021, 02:53:17 PM
OHX expanding accums a bit west:
(http://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image27.png?b06fd1cb15bdb206931e3d1c58ab790b)

Quote
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
229 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021

Confidence is increasing in snowfall accumulations across Middle
Tennessee beginning late tomorrow night and continuing into Friday
morning. Places west of Cumberland Plateau Region could see a
dusting up to 1/2" with locations across the higher elevations
of the Cumberland Plateau Region seeing upwards of 1 to 2 inches.
Confidence is increasing in the forecasted snowfall amounts, so a
Winter Weather Advisory may be needed in the future for some
counties across the Cumberland Plateau Region
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 06, 2021, 02:55:08 PM
The trend is our friend!!! ::guitar::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 02:56:58 PM
Actually that NAM run was good for pretty much all of middle tn as well. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Sure was.

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 02:59:23 PM
OHX expanding accums a bit west:
(http://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image27.png?b06fd1cb15bdb206931e3d1c58ab790b)

I am still thinking south of 40 could have sporadic 1-2 inch totals heavier moisture content ?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 03:08:46 PM
MRX most recent disco.  Again, everything seems to hinge on how heavy the precipitation falls (rates).

Quote
Thursday evening a deep southern stream upper trough will cutoff
over the Arklatex region, shifting east across northern
Mississippi and Alabama through the night and into the Carolinas
on Friday. There remains some disagreement with the placement of
the upper low as it traverses the TN/MS/AL border Thursday night,
which has implications on precip type and amounts. This lends
itself to a still-low confidence forecast for the lower elevations
of the TN valley. Elsewhere, especially in the east TN mountains
along the NC border, confidence is much higher in precip type and
reasonably high with regards to amounts.

Precip looks to spread into the southern counties during the
evening hours tomorrow, working north through the central valley
by midnight or so, and finally up into the northern zones by
daybreak Friday morning. This seems to be pretty well agreed on in
the numerical guidance. BUFR soundings from various models do not
support any snow reaching the lower elevations until after
midnight, but between evaporative and dynamic cooling and the
baseline thermal profile, expect that at minimum a rain/snow mix
will be seen fairly early on at elevations above 2,000 ft or so.

Snow levels will work their way lower through the night though,
and expect to see a rain/snow mix down to the valley floor during
during the very early morning hours on Friday. Let me go ahead and
address the elephant in the room here and say that it doesn`t
appear that this will be a very impactful snow event for the TN
valley south of roughly Morristown or maybe even a little further
north than that.
Looking upstream, there is no source of frigid,
dry arctic air that will surge south into the TN valley to support
prolonged periods of snow at low elevations. Model soundings show
a weak warm nose induced by southeasterly flow across the
mountains, or perhaps a deep isothermal layer near the freezing
line, through the time period where snow will exist. Given
forecast surface temperatures, the driving factor in any
accumulating snow will be precip rates and frankly they don`t look
outstanding outside of the Appalachians where orographic lift
will help enhance rates there.
Have a tenth or two of accumulation
from the southern valley up to around the Morristown area in the
forecast.

Now, moving on to the plateau, mountains, and other locales. The
best window of heavier precipitation rates looks to be from roughly
midnight Thu night through daybreak Fri morning. This is when the
best low and mid level frontogenetic forcing transits the area. More
susbtantial deep ascent will stay east of the forecast area into the
Carolinas. Likewise, a persistent TROWAL feature is absent across
our CWA, so this will be a quick hitting system in large part.
Still, given the low freezing levels to start, expect that the
mountains could pick up a quick 4-6" of snow late Thursday night as
this system passes by. Some northwest flow snow showers will likely
linger into Friday evening, but the best accumulating snowfall will
be done by late Fri morning most likely. On the plateau, the same
situation applies. Being further removed from the best forcing,
expect snow amounts in the 1-3" range there.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 06, 2021, 03:15:37 PM
I am still thinking south of 40 could have sporadic 1-2 inch totals heavier moisture content ?

Honestly, I think anyone in the eastern 3/4 of the state has a shot at this point. High boom/bust potential, but we are used to that and know it going in with this one.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 03:15:51 PM
I am still thinking south of 40 could have sporadic 1-2 inch totals heavier moisture content ?

Forget bass.  It's all about that rates, that rates...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 03:23:06 PM
Forget bass.  It's all about that rates, that rates...

https://youtu.be/7PCkvCPvDXk (https://youtu.be/7PCkvCPvDXk)

A weather nerd needs to turn this into a song about snow amounts. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 03:23:10 PM
Forget bass.  It's all about that rates, that rates...

:) I see what you did there, but my point is it looks like heavier moisture content could be in southern mid state...? That would squeeze out higher rates I would think, as well as a little elevation maybe?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 03:27:51 PM
:) I see what you did there, but my point is it looks like heavier moisture content could be in southern mid state...? That would squeeze out higher rates I would think, as well as a little elevation maybe?

I've seen many model runs (esp. NAM) show a bullseye of snow in southern middle TN, and the upper level low passes very close to there.  So I wouldn't count out a surprise as it passes overhead.  Hope you see it!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 06, 2021, 03:28:07 PM
Forget bass.  It's all about that rates, that rates...

... no graupel...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 06, 2021, 03:29:17 PM
... no graupel...

DANG IT!!  I sure tired to find that rhyme!   ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 03:32:13 PM
I've seen many model runs (esp. NAM) show a bullseye of snow in southern middle TN, and the upper level low passes very close to there.  So I wouldn't count out a surprise as it passes overhead.  Hope you see it!

I want us ALL to get it :) if not tomorrow night then sunday/Monday :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 06, 2021, 03:35:01 PM
I want us ALL to get it :) if not tomorrow night then sunday/Monday :)

I'd consider anything from these next two a bonus outside of the Plateau/Mountains. I'm thinking more towards the 17th/18th for a better shot at a solid snow with more firmly entrenched cold.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 06, 2021, 03:37:44 PM
Broke out the ULL for the next day or 2 into another thread since thereís another threat behind it. We may need another shortly.

For fun here is the snow totals across the state per 12z EURO control by Monday INCLUDING the ULL.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210106/627e742e1efebc1d3a0cca339178652a.jpg)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Scot on January 06, 2021, 03:39:26 PM
Broke out the ULL for the next day or 2 into another thread since thereís another threat behind it. We may need another shortly.

For fun here is the snow totals across the state per 12z EURO control by Monday INCLUDING the ULL.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210106/627e742e1efebc1d3a0cca339178652a.jpg)

As a middle Tennessean, I 100% expect this to happen.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 06, 2021, 03:44:17 PM
Broke out the ULL for the next day or 2 into another thread since thereís another threat behind it. We may need another shortly.

For fun here is the snow totals across the state per 12z EURO control by Monday INCLUDING the ULL.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210106/627e742e1efebc1d3a0cca339178652a.jpg)

I find severe fault with this map. 

It missed Mid TN.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 03:44:37 PM
As a middle Tennessean, I 100% expect this to happen.


IKR LOL!!!!!! everybody all around us gets the brunt
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Crockett on January 06, 2021, 03:48:53 PM
I find severe fault with this map. 

It missed Mid TN.

Not just Middle TN! Here on the plateau (where we take offense to being labeled as Middle TN), we're not used to seeing storms miss us while the Knoxville area gets got. But the ULL currently looks like a repeat of the Christmas Eve storm.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2021, 03:54:52 PM
I find severe fault with this map. 

It missed Mid TN.
you get half inch on that map. All is good man
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 04:07:02 PM
Not just Middle TN! Here on the plateau (where we take offense to being labeled as Middle TN), we're not used to seeing storms miss us while the Knoxville area gets got. But the ULL currently looks like a repeat of the Christmas Eve storm.

You at least see a few events a year even if nuisance events up there , most of us in mid Tennessee especially south of I-40 are really snow starved :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2021, 04:52:31 PM
Another upper level low pressure system could potentially impact
the Mid-South late Sunday Night through Monday Night. Models had
been trending southward with the system, but the 12Z ECMWF and 12Z
Canadian trended northward with this latest run. Several of the
ensembles of the ECMWF, Canadian, and the GFS support the latest
operational runs of the ECMWF and Canadian. With this track, the
first widespread snowfall of the year could occur. Still early.
For now have added 20 POPS to the forecast, but if models continue
trending with this new track then POPS will need to be raised.
Stay tuned.

that was MEG AFD

Huntsville AFD also discusses it as well....ohx is the least aggressive ( surprise lol)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 06, 2021, 05:37:05 PM
Broke out the ULL for the next day or 2 into another thread since thereís another threat behind it. We may need another shortly.

For fun here is the snow totals across the state per 12z EURO control by Monday INCLUDING the ULL.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210106/627e742e1efebc1d3a0cca339178652a.jpg)
Call me skeptical but a 1030 High and its rain🤔. One of many runs to go.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 06, 2021, 10:27:40 PM
00Z takes a pretty significant move this evening. 00Z has things going negative right around the TX/LA border. If this thing get wound up a bit more its going to continue its move to the NW. You can also see changes coming out of the plains. 00Z obviously takes a much different approach to the northern wave. East Tn obviously is the winner just guessing at these next two systems. I better not here any whining... Only from me..

(http://width=600 height=492]https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/vort500_z500/1609934400/1610355600-BpHiksnIB4c.png)

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/vort500_z500/1609977600/1610355600-DnSSFNqmxOA.png[img]I will take being on the NW side at this point.[img]https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/se/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1609977600/1610409600-1NWHEeBjWNw.png)

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 07, 2021, 12:24:33 AM
Very happy with the 0z euro run for early next week  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 07, 2021, 12:34:03 AM
Very happy with the 0z euro run for early next week  ::snowman::
Yep, lock that in right there. I will take it! ::popcorn::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 07, 2021, 07:22:03 AM
Very happy with the 0z euro run for early next week  ::snowman::
6z Euro control starting to look a look like January 2011 in some ways maybe a little more southwest to northeast focused.the 40 corridor from Nashville to Memphis does nicely with 3-5. MS delta is a huge 7-8 inch hit. That area has been targeted along with Dallas run after run.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2021, 07:33:47 AM
6z Euro control starting to look a look like January 2011 in some ways maybe a little more southwest to northeast focused.the 40 corridor from Nashville to Memphis does nicely with 3-5. MS delta is a huge 7-8 inch hit. That area has been targeted along with Dallas run after run.
yeah noticed that also .. hopefully we can get Just a ever nudge shift north . I like weíre we sit st the moment on this one ..
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 07, 2021, 07:41:49 AM
Hi curt. Could you post the euro control if you don't mind? Thanks in advance
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JKT1987 on January 07, 2021, 07:42:12 AM
Obviously the Euro is nice. Guess Iím just not buying it yet. At least GFS (and sure Canadian) is in agreement on the overall idea though certainly less gangbusters. Probably will have a better idea tomorrow.
Title: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 07, 2021, 07:58:28 AM
Obviously the Euro is nice. Guess Iím just not buying it yet. At least GFS (and sure Canadian) is in agreement on the overall idea though certainly less gangbusters. Probably will have a better idea tomorrow.
The GFS and more so itís newer version have basically the exact same set up except a tad further south and east. There is a pronounced warm nose except on the north and west side of just about all models. Thatís a killer to be at 33 and rain while 2 counties over is 32 and snow.

We will be within 72 hours later today and models should tighten up. The euro isnít perfect but as always is outperforming the GFS in the medium range in a statistically significant way. When it leaves, my confidence will wane.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2021, 08:02:46 AM
The GFS and more so itís newer version have basically the exact same set up except a tad further south and east. There is a pronounced warm nose except on the north and west side of just about all models. Thatís a killer to be at 33 and rain while 2 counties over is 32 and snow.

We will be within 72 hours later today and models should tighten up. The euro isnít perfect but as always is outperforming the GFS in the medium range in a statistically significant way. When it leaves, my confidence will wane.
plus appears the gfs is starting to bow toward the euro ... interesting 12 z runs today coming for sure
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 07, 2021, 08:15:59 AM
Need the 12z Euro to slide the SLP about 60 miles to the southeast.  Really would hate to see a 33F rain on the Plateau.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2021, 08:22:33 AM
from span the man :)

https://www.alabamawx.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ceecmce.png
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 07, 2021, 08:23:56 AM
HUN(Huntsville) AFD:

Quote
Issued at 425 AM CST Thu Jan 7 2021
...models continue to look more impressive with a wintry system that
quickly moves east into the area on Monday into Monday night. The
track of the developing surface low with this system tracks from the
northern Gulf of Mexico northeast through around the Jacksonville,
FL area. This would be a fairly good track for wintry precipitation
for this area
. This system could produce some measurable snowfall
that could be a bit more widespread than the previous system. Still
far out though, so not going to go into too many specifics.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 07, 2021, 08:26:56 AM
from span the man :)

https://www.alabamawx.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ceecmce.png
Looks like that includes todayís system as well.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 07, 2021, 08:32:13 AM
The SE half of middle TN and most of east TN have been NAMMED:

12Z
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021010712/namconus_asnow_seus_18.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2021, 08:32:56 AM
Looks like that includes todayís system as well.

his weather xtreme video this am was pretty darn encouraging :), best potential I have had in a 4 day time frame since 2015 so I am latching onto it :) lol, usually by now the system has went poof, now at least there is very decent agreement in models to know it is on the able, track is the key :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JKT1987 on January 07, 2021, 08:37:09 AM
 Iíll at least admit the system has more potential than how MEG described it this morning which was basically nothing to see here... move along. And Iím normally a MEG defender when a lot of people arenít. But that was far too dismissive for just an AFD. Don't have a problem with their official forecast for now but it has merit enough worth discussing scenarios....
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 07, 2021, 08:38:09 AM
I was just looking at the last four runs of GFSv16 from 1/6 12z to 1/7 6z and you can see a pronounced shift to the northwest with each run.

The main area of snowfall was basically centered from a line from Alexandria, LA to Hattiesburg, MS to Meridian, MS. Now the main snowfall is positioned from Shreveport, LA to Moniticello, AR to Greenwood, MS.

Seems like MEG is really downplaying it. Even JAN has put out an HWO graphic highlighting the northwest side of the forecast area for snow potential

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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 07, 2021, 08:38:40 AM
Iíll at least admit the system has more potential than how MEG described it this morning which was basically nothing to see here... move along. And Iím normally a MEG defender when a lot of people arenít. But that was far too dismissive for just an AFD. Don't have a problem with their official forecast for now but it has merit enough worth discussing scenarios....
Maybe the forecaster is from Iowa and thinks itís piddly. Perspective.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2021, 08:41:22 AM
Iíll at least admit the system has more potential than how MEG described it this morning which was basically nothing to see here... move along. And Iím normally a MEG defender when a lot of people arenít. But that was far too dismissive for just an AFD. Don't have a problem with their official forecast for now but it has merit enough worth discussing scenarios....
look who wrote the afd this morning ... lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 07, 2021, 08:43:18 AM
look who wrote the afd this morning ... lol
Mr. 30 man right? ::shrug::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 07, 2021, 08:43:43 AM
his weather xtreme video this am was pretty darn encouraging :), best potential I have had in a 4 day time frame since 2015 so I am latching onto it :) lol, usually by now the system has went poof, now at least there is very decent agreement in models to know it is on the able, track is the key :)

Dont go falling in love with it, Clark.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2021, 08:44:14 AM
Maybe the forecaster is from Iowa and thinks itís piddly. Perspective.
no it donít matter what type weather is looming  severe or winter. . Itís same issue with particular forecaster always . Lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2021, 08:45:28 AM
Mr. 30 man right? ::shrug::
[/quote10- 4 good buddy
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2021, 08:49:53 AM
Dont go falling in love with it, Clark.

at the risk of sounding stupid what's the clark reference lol :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 07, 2021, 08:52:49 AM
his weather xtreme video this am was pretty darn encouraging :), best potential I have had in a 4 day time frame since 2015 so I am latching onto it :) lol, usually by now the system has went poof, now at least there is very decent agreement in models to know it is on the able, track is the key :)

Don't do this to yourself...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2021, 08:53:16 AM
at the risk of sounding stupid what's the clark reference lol :)
movie vacation lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on January 07, 2021, 08:55:01 AM
Iím still holding out hope for the PV split or displacement that could send us into the deep freeze


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2021, 08:55:27 AM
Don't do this to yourself...

already been done, I have bit on this one , it has potential , more potential than anything I have seen for my area in a loooong time so why not dive into it , if it don't work out, the oh well, life will go on :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2021, 08:57:00 AM
movie vacation lol

Oh sorry, I don't like chevy chase at all so I have never watched any of his "vacations" lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 07, 2021, 08:57:19 AM
already been done, I have bit on this one , it has potential , more potential than anything I have seen for my area in a loooong time so why not dive into it , if it don't work out, the oh well, life will go on :)

If you went to Russia with the frequency of those smiley emotes people would think you're an idiot  ;D
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 07, 2021, 08:57:30 AM
Iím still holding out hope for the PV split or displacement that could send us into the deep freeze


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A lady I spoke to today from England said SSW events are "drip" events and can take some time to propagate correctly.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on January 07, 2021, 08:57:58 AM
Oh sorry, I don't like chevy chase at all so I have never watched any of his "vacations" lol
Now thatís just unamerican right there


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on January 07, 2021, 09:00:01 AM
A lady I spoke to today from England said SSW events are "drip" events and can take some time to propagate correctly.
Thereís a youtuber over there thatís been talking about it, but I canít think of his name.
Pretty informative though.


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 07, 2021, 09:05:19 AM
Thereís a youtuber over there thatís been talking about it, but I canít think of his name.
Pretty informative though.


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This one is no different. Referring to SSW event
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2021, 09:13:24 AM
If you went to Russia with the frequency of those smiley emotes people would think you're an idiot  ;D

sorry, for some reason it's habit
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2021, 09:26:14 AM
hey everybody since NWS went live with that ridiculously terrible radar, what do you all use now?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 07, 2021, 09:30:14 AM
hey everybody since NWS went live with that ridiculously terrible radar, what do you all use now?

Radarscope or GR2a/GR3. 

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: joemomma on January 07, 2021, 09:39:43 AM
It's even worse on mobile.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 07, 2021, 09:47:26 AM
hey everybody since NWS went live with that ridiculously terrible radar, what do you all use now?

You know some employee or contractor worked very hard on and was very proud of that upgrade. No telling what it cost from start to finish.

We're from the gov't and we're here to help.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Beth on January 07, 2021, 10:15:32 AM
You know some employee or contractor worked very hard on and was very proud of that upgrade. No telling what it cost from start to finish.

We're from the gov't and we're here to help.
I heard that NWS used flash player and when it was dropped that messed them up.  Not sure if that is true or not.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 07, 2021, 10:42:24 AM
CMC is a go for Monday. My guess is the Euro will hold its ground.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 07, 2021, 10:49:44 AM
You know some employee or contractor worked very hard on and was very proud of that upgrade. No telling what it cost from start to finish.

We're from the gov't and we're here to help.

Surely they had a test audience before they launched it. I can't imagine a group of 100 people giving a 70% approval rating to this. It's not that bad, but it's worse than what they had before. The idea is it should be more navigable for the public than the previous NWS radar feature. It is less so. They have failed.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2021, 10:54:00 AM
CMC is a go for Monday. My guess is the Euro will hold its ground.

How good is cmc usually with these ? It does look good especially I-65 westward
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on January 07, 2021, 10:55:26 AM
The GFS is really depressing for this corner of the state. Repeated close calls all throughout the run with nothing but cold rain to show for it.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2021, 10:55:45 AM
Gfs May be a outlier ...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 07, 2021, 11:21:41 AM
The UK has a weak vort that disintegrates coming through Arkansas. Itís totally separated and disjointed from the main precip on the gulf coast. That wonít work other than a few flurries.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2021, 11:33:09 AM
The UK has a weak vort that disintegrates coming through Arkansas. Itís totally separated and disjointed from the main precip on the gulf coast. That wonít work other than a few flurries.
just hope the euro donít follow suit . They go together some
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 07, 2021, 11:36:24 AM
The GFS is really depressing for this corner of the state. Repeated close calls all throughout the run with nothing but cold rain to show for it.

If long range is correct in showing stronger cold and a more suppressed pattern coming at the end of January, you guys down south could benefit. Almost all of us, outside the NE part of the State, are in the same snow starved wait and see boat.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 07, 2021, 11:38:21 AM
just hope the euro follow suit . They go together some
They have been worlds apart so far not that doesnít mean they wonít gel at some point. One of them is wrong.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2021, 11:39:07 AM
They have been worlds apart so far not that doesnít mean they wonít gel at some point. One of them is wrong.
sorry. Meant to say donít.  I fixed it
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 07, 2021, 12:21:52 PM
12z Euro was weak sauce for the Wed storm.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2021, 12:23:44 PM
12z Euro was weak sauce for the Wed storm.
wanting go back south again lol. Nice hit north Alabama
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 07, 2021, 12:24:15 PM
12z Euro was weak sauce for the Wed storm.
Yeah it caved to a non event in Tennessee. Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi though- different story.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2021, 12:27:26 PM
Yeah it caved to a non event in Tennessee. Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi though- different story.
not  sure if thatís the final solution still be honest.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 07, 2021, 12:28:15 PM
Still time to trend back nw with that second wave. May or may not happen but still possible. After pulling north over the past runs I am kinda glad it went south a little this run versus continuing nw. Still hope on wave 2 I think. ::popcorn::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 07, 2021, 03:02:36 PM
They just issued a Winter Storm Warning for Johnson City for tonight and tomorrow for up to 5 inches


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2021, 03:39:34 PM
Meg sounds like things could still get interesting Monday night Tuesday morning next week. Pretty informative afd...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2021, 03:49:57 PM
Meg sounds like things could still get interesting Monday night Tuesday morning next week. Pretty informative afd...

It sure looks like a south of I-40 and west of 65 type of event bruce , as of right now?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 07, 2021, 03:58:08 PM
18Z Icon trended back NW some.
(https://i.imgur.com/suU1yRU.jpg)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 07, 2021, 04:25:25 PM
My mom says there are huge flakes at her house in Williamson County off of 100. Starting to dust there now
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 07, 2021, 04:38:07 PM
18Z Icon trended back NW some.
(https://i.imgur.com/suU1yRU.jpg)
Lol the GFS and v16 have now gone back to their suppressed look from a few days ago.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 07, 2021, 05:13:49 PM
Lol the GFS and v16 have now gone back to their suppressed look from a few days ago.
But GFS ensemble means are being used by WFO JAN I believe along with ECENS. I think I read that

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Title: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 07, 2021, 07:33:49 PM
But GFS ensemble means are being used by WFO JAN I believe along with ECENS. I think I read that

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18z Euro control run is not suppressed- very steady with bullseye from Dallas to Shreveport to Northern MS- esp delta. It does get far enough for 1-2 inch amounts along 40 from Little Rock to Nashville.it only needs about a 50 mile jog to the north for a much better solution for this forum. The entire state does get some snow- ďheavierĒ as in more than inch along the southern west Tn counties. Meh better than suppression. Kinda piddly here but not for those areas I mentioned.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 07, 2021, 07:48:47 PM
18z Euro control run is not suppressed- very steady with bullseye from Dallas to Shreveport to Northern MS- esp delta. It does get far enough for 1-2 inch amounts along 40 from Little Rock to Nashville.it only needs about a 50 mile jog to the north for a much better solution for this forum. The entire state does get some snow- ďheavierĒ as in more than inch along the southern west Tn counties. Meh better than suppression. Kinda piddly here but not for those areas I mentioned.
Happy hour of GFS shows 5 opportunities with the whole state blanketed.  If only!  One can dream. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2021, 07:56:02 PM
not saying what will happen, but seems best odds with next system of a significant snow is west of 65 (puts me in play ) and heavier moisture south of 40, that just seems to be the trend the past 36 hours? its just an observation
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2021, 08:02:31 PM
The SE half of middle TN and most of east TN have been NAMMED:

12Z
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021010712/namconus_asnow_seus_18.png)

looks like it did a dang good job , maybe a bit overdone but still pretty good job!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 07, 2021, 08:54:47 PM
0z NAM thoughts for next week?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 07, 2021, 09:02:54 PM
12NAM I will take @ 84 .Thank you... LOL
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2021, 09:15:38 PM
0z nam looks good
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 07, 2021, 09:16:58 PM
0z NAM thoughts for next week?
The cutoff is too close for comfort, we need a slight northward jog.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 07, 2021, 09:52:32 PM
0Z RGEM further NW than 0Z NAM.
(https://i.imgur.com/q4Lw7fd.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 07, 2021, 09:58:29 PM
[attachimg=1] 0z GFS



Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 07, 2021, 11:09:01 PM
Well GFS is full of potentials for many on here.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 07, 2021, 11:10:50 PM
This upcoming run of the euro has my interest for mon-tues system. Good vibes folks!!!! ::cold::::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 08, 2021, 12:28:49 AM
I think we can stick a fork in the next system. She gone.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on January 08, 2021, 06:13:10 AM
Welp- media has picked up talk of SSW and the infamous polar vortex. Get ready.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stratospheric-warming-winter-weather-coming (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stratospheric-warming-winter-weather-coming)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on January 08, 2021, 06:25:12 AM
I think we can stick a fork in the next system. She gone.

I go to bed with at least some models showing something. Wake up and see it all vanished like a fart in the wind.

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/50/02/87/50028702f0fe220d18c4aff55dcd1d71.gif)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 08, 2021, 07:33:33 AM
I think we can stick a fork in the next system. She gone.
Going to be a tough pull to watch JacksonMS and Dallas get 4-6 inches while stay out of it.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2021, 08:00:45 AM
Going to be a tough pull to watch JacksonMS and Dallas get 4-6 inches while stay out of it.
agree... but i do think they may have to depend on some heavy returns be honest , we are just not getting any good true strong high pressures coming down to do us any good. of course these ull  can provide colder air with the dynamics off them. i am just not seeing a solid swath of 4 to 6 inch snow from dallas to jackson ms... because of the lack of true artic air especially that far south.   i can rememebr back the good ole winters when dallas texas scored a big snow you could almost bet it would be heading our way... now when they score it always goes to our south it seems... ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 08, 2021, 08:12:04 AM
Meanwhile, it's a snowstorm in Madrid, Spain today.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2021, 08:12:50 AM
agree... but i do think they may have to depend on some heavy returns be honest , we are just not getting any good true strong high pressures coming down to do us any good. of course these ull  can provide colder air with the dynamics off them. i am just not seeing a solid swath of 4 to 6 inch snow from dallas to jackson ms... because of the lack of true artic air especially that far south.   i can rememebr back the good ole winters when dallas texas scored a big snow you could almost bet it would be heading our way... now when they score it always goes to our south it seems... ::bangingheadintowall::

True when DFW got it, we got it every time when I was a kid....still 3 days out though y'allÖ.what caused the models to dry it out so much on the north when it approaches us on those morning runs?....fyi ensembles of euro still showing 50-60% range of 1 inch or more so who knows lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Scot on January 08, 2021, 08:34:26 AM
Ya'll the frustrations are mounting here in Wilson County, the snow barely misses every time but if it is a tornado, by dogs we are going to get hammered!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: lyngo on January 08, 2021, 08:59:18 AM
I wouldnít sleep on Mondayís system just yet...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2021, 09:24:23 AM
I wouldnít sleep on Mondayís system just yet...

oh I am not, all it needs is a bit more moisture than it is showing on the major model runs

spann the man shows euro ensembles still have our area with a higher than 50% chance of snow above an inch with Mondays system, I put a lot of stock in spann , not saying it will happen but the chance is still there

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 08, 2021, 10:19:42 AM
It ain't gonna take much in the terms of degree swing to paste the Plateau.  925s are at freezing (GFS) but the Euro says nope.  12z NAM says screw you and pastes Mid TN. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 08, 2021, 10:31:28 AM
Believe it or not, the GEM beat both the Euro and GFS on last night's system for me. So I'm going to roll with it for now:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021010812/gem_asnow24_seus_13.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 08, 2021, 10:43:21 AM
12Z RGEM:

(https://i.imgur.com/pHY4fvG.jpg)

12Z NAM:

(https://i.imgur.com/8GeCmDO.jpg)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2021, 10:47:01 AM
i hate to be that guy... but im afraid we dont start getting some stronger high pressures dropping down, were going have to deal with temps issues bad. our great. looking january pattern will be loaded with a parade of cold rains   >:D
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2021, 10:53:52 AM
is part of the reason that forecasting winter storms in the south is so difficult because it really happens so infrequently that there is nowhere near the climatological history as places like say the mid atlantic and northeast and upper Midwest?

Seems to me they know 3-4 days ahead of time almost exactly what is going to happen in those places, however down here its a crapshoot even with the best data
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 08, 2021, 10:54:51 AM
Agree. Even at 1,800 feet where I live in Johnson City we only got down to 32 and while I got a couple inches of snow last night downtown Johnson City at 1,620 feet got no snow


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 08, 2021, 10:58:05 AM
i hate to be that guy... but im afraid we dont start getting some stronger high pressures dropping down, were going have to deal with temps issues bad. our great. looking january pattern will be loaded with a parade of cold rains   >:D

Bruce, come on man. You love to be that guy!
 ::shaking_finger:: ;D
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 08, 2021, 11:11:46 AM
Looks like we need to ride the Canadian models. I will always have a soft spot for the RGEM for nailing my epic sleet storm.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 08, 2021, 11:18:32 AM
The 12Z GFS really brings the cold, and yes, it does bring snow, too.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: WXHD on January 08, 2021, 11:52:29 AM
The 12Z GFS really brings the cold, and yes, it does bring snow, too.

Yep. And, I donít want to jinx anything but, 300 hours out shows a nice snow storm the most of Tennessee.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 08, 2021, 11:59:14 AM
12z UKMET looks a lot like the Canadian.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2021, 12:01:12 PM
Yep. And, I donít want to jinx anything but, 300 hours out shows a nice snow storm the most of Tennessee.
its a doozy ... sign me up. 300 out, what could go wrong ...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on January 08, 2021, 12:10:39 PM
its a doozy ... sign me up. 300 out, what could go wrong ...
It ends up in Minneapolis.


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2021, 12:19:04 PM
It ends up in Minneapolis.


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or Jackson Mississippi...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 08, 2021, 01:07:46 PM
Euro takes a step toward CMC and UK. Nice totals in Mississippi this run. They got 0 on last nights run.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 08, 2021, 01:53:48 PM
It looks like the coldest weather of the year around the 19th on before and after the statewide snow


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 08, 2021, 02:25:00 PM
i hate to be that guy... but im afraid we dont start getting some stronger high pressures dropping down, were going have to deal with temps issues bad. our great. looking january pattern will be loaded with a parade of cold rains   >:D

Why do you have to add the  >:D to everything? Are you evil or just like trolling?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 08, 2021, 02:29:27 PM
It looks like the coldest weather of the year around the 19th on before and after the statewide snow


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I'm going to jump aboard the "that guy" train and give Bruce a taste of his medicine  ;D

From 12/2/20:
Quote
everyone yelling also winter will be front loaded... cold shot long term is just that long term. fantasy land. would not suprise me if this will be the coldest air of this whole winter season were in now


So, everyone, keep in mind Bruce's teasing usually doesn't verify.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2021, 02:31:25 PM
Why do you have to add the  >:D to everything? Are you evil or just like trolling?
i got that from dyer, guess it rubs off on me lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 08, 2021, 02:33:20 PM
It looks like the coldest weather of the year around the 19th on before and after the statewide snow


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Very cold air on the way , probabilities are pretty decent of it happening.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 08, 2021, 02:34:14 PM
i got that from dyer, guess it rubs off on me lol

But dyer isnt a troll?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2021, 02:36:17 PM
But dyer isnt a troll?
to be honest, you think about it, we are all trolls on here.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 08, 2021, 02:38:18 PM
to be honest, you think about it, we are all trolls on here.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

(sarcasm intended with this post)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2021, 02:38:54 PM
But dyer isnt a troll?
now wont you work on getting us some stronger highs coming down so we can have colder air to work with  for these waves coming through man :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2021, 02:50:13 PM
Winter  storm watches are going up over areas just south of Dallas metro. Up to 6 inches snow in isolated areas ..
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 08, 2021, 03:44:55 PM
12z UKMET looks a lot like the Canadian.
The CMC had been doing well with winter systems
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 08, 2021, 03:50:26 PM
Ya'll the frustrations are mounting here in Wilson County, the snow barely misses every time but if it is a tornado, by dogs we are going to get hammered!

We got snow showers and a dusting on Christmas Eve, that has to count for something.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2021, 03:52:09 PM
still looks to me like west of 65 and south of 40 will be in play for a WWA type event on monday from that system...and if a bit more moisture could get up this way maybe more, still 3 days away

I seem to remember many a system take about a 65-75 mile jog farther north many a times , will never forget the big one we were supposed to get looked like almost all of TN would get 6-8 inches of snow, only to have the models take it north of here into central kentucky 36 hours before the event, one never can tell
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 08, 2021, 04:06:42 PM
still looks to me like west of 65 and south of 40 will be in play for a WWA type event on monday from that system...and if a bit more moisture could get up this way maybe more, still 3 days away

I seem to remember many a system take about a 65-75 mile jog farther north many a times , will never forget the big one we were supposed to get looked like almost all of TN would get 6-8 inches of snow, only to have the models take it north of here into central kentucky 36 hours before the event, one never can tell

Problem is, the system weakens significantly once it leaves Tx/La, so a 70 mile jog north puts southern middle only at roughly .1 qpf (both GFS/Euro). The whole system for our area, to me, is a big meh...unless models have really got something wrong with the weakening.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2021, 04:11:38 PM
Problem is, the system weakens significantly once it leaves Tx/La, so a 70 mile jog north puts southern middle only at roughly .1 qpf (both GFS/Euro). The whole system for our area, to me, is a big meh...unless models have really got something wrong with the weakening.

if i still see that tomorrow night is when i will be worried, i am just not sure i buy that right now, i would think at least .25 qpf would get into our area but we will see
Title: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 08, 2021, 04:32:38 PM
The RGEM just plows northeastward with decent QPF as it has been. I do notice that thereís some dry air in places that all modeling picks up on somewhere. Some are in Arkansas, some in West TN, and others where it just canít come north at all. The EPS members are really consistent at a father north solution that the globals - and that could change. I just suspect that with the dry air itís running up against will be a fly in the ointment

As mentioned 0.1 in QPF only means an inch or less. Meh.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 08, 2021, 04:49:33 PM
We got snow showers and a dusting on Christmas Eve, that has to count for something.

At least it isn't 2011-2012 and we still have a solid 4-6 week window to score before the late Feb warmth likely comes.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Heath22 on January 08, 2021, 04:50:08 PM
Yep. And, I donít want to jinx anything but, 300 hours out shows a nice snow storm the most of Tennessee.

How about some snow porn for us technically challenged. Lets see those fantasy accum maps.  ::yum::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 08, 2021, 04:52:48 PM
Nice AFD by MEG this afternoon, mentions this may be the first accumulating snow of the year in the CWA.

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
319 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021

.DISCUSSION...

A chilly day is occurring across the Mid-South as clouds remain
over the area and cold air advection is occurring. Current
temperatures are in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Don`t expect much
change for Saturday. An upper level low will track over the
Mid-South tonight into Saturday morning. The upper low could bring
scattered flurries to portions of the Mid-South, much like what
occurred this morning across the Memphis Metro area. The clouds
will help keep temperatures from dropping too much tonight, but
will keep chilly temperatures during the day on Saturday. Highs
will stay in the mid to upper 30s.

All eyes are on the next upper level low pressure system that will
track from the Red River Valley into North Mississippi Sunday into
Monday. Precipitation will begin to fall after midnight Sunday
Night across portions of Northwest Mississippi and Phillips
County, Arkansas. With cold air in place, precipitation will fall
in the form of snow. The snow will spread northward into the rest
of the CWA on Monday and then will begin to taper off from west
to east Monday evening. Still too early to pinpoint exact amounts
as models still have a wide range of solutions. However, it does
look like somewhere in the CWA will see the first accumulating
snow of the year. At this time, the mean snowfall from the
ensembles of the Canadian show 1 to 2 inches falling from the
Memphis area southward. The ECMWF mean snowfall is higher while
the GFS is lower. Stay tuned to the forecast over the weekend for
the latest.

Behind the departing upper level low, temperatures will begin to
moderate into the middle of next week as surface winds turn
around to the south.


Another shot of cold air will move into the Mid-South behind a
cold front Thursday Night into Friday. At this time, it looks like
the front will come through dry.

KRM
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 08, 2021, 06:26:00 PM
[attachimg=2][attachimg=2]
How about some snow porn for us technically challenged. Lets see those fantasy accum maps.  ::yum::
The RGEM is the best for Tennessee at this point.

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Beth on January 08, 2021, 07:34:24 PM
Meh! Not even counting on it now.  Last night was really sh*tty. Waking up to nothing this morning was a real let down. And with all the crap in D.C., well it just seems like this year is going to be a repeat of last year if not worse.  Yeah, sorry, but not sorry I am whamby tonight. One decent snow would help a hella lot.  :-\
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2021, 07:43:41 PM
Meh! Not even counting on it now.  Last night was really sh*tty. Waking up to nothing this morning was a real let down. And with all the crap in D.C., well it just seems like this year is going to be a repeat of last year if not worse.  Yeah, sorry, but not sorry I am whamby tonight. One decent snow would help a hella lot.  :-\

It's all good beth we all are allowed to whine! I was just lucky last night and got 2 inches out of that ull, i am hoping some heavier moisture shows up on the runs , this particular map from James Spann would be nice
https://www.alabamawx.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/snow-setup.png
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 08, 2021, 07:44:47 PM
Nashville likely gets nothing from this fwiw. Not even going to comment.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2021, 07:55:16 PM
Nashville likely gets nothing from this fwiw. Not even going to comment.

The chances were always better  south of nashville with the upcoming event, and even at that it still may not happen for me either, but it's at least something to track for a bit. Much better than last years winter so far, there have at least been chances and some of us have hit. I think we will all get a hit this season !
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 08, 2021, 09:30:17 PM
The chances were always better  south of nashville with the upcoming event, and even at that it still may not happen for me either, but it's at least something to track for a bit. Much better than last years winter so far, there have at least been chances and some of us have hit. I think we will all get a hit this season !

Its possible, plenty of chances to put two and two together.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 09, 2021, 12:56:19 AM
I want to cancel my subscription to 2021. Iíve enjoyed the free 10 day trial but itís just not for me
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 01:09:38 AM
I want to cancel my subscription to 2021. Iíve enjoyed the free 10 day trial but itís just not for
why. Least itís not 2020 lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JetJock on January 09, 2021, 01:21:47 AM
why. Least itís not 2020 lol

2020 just turned 21, and now it can drink!   ;D
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 09, 2021, 06:56:47 AM
Decent agreement this morning on the Monday system with short range models. 1-3 inches for all of west Tn and some of middle.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 09, 2021, 07:09:41 AM
MEG

Quote
A weak ridge will build in over the Midsouth today, then shift
East of the area on Sunday in response to a deepening midlevel
trough over Southwest Texas. By Sunday evening the trough over
West Texas should be centered over the Dallas area. It is then
forecast to track Northeast over central Arkansas and into West
Tennessee by midday Monday. The surface low associated with this
feature will track along the Gulf Coast. This is nearly the ideal
scenario for snow across the Midsouth. However moisture will be a
limiting factor. Cold air is already in place across the
area. High temperatures today will be in the upper 30s to low 40s
with Sunday morning lows in the mid 20s across most of the area.
Best early guess is up to an inch of snow in northwestern portions
of Mississippi tapering off to trace amounts in Northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky state line
in West Tennessee. Snow should begin shortly after Midnight Sunday
night in East Central Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi and
spread North and East across most of the Midsouth by sunrise
Monday morning. Temperatures should remain cold enough for all
precipitation to fall as snow after Midnight Sunday through midday
Monday. Monday afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in
the upper 30s to low 40s, so any afternoon precipitation should
change over to rain. It looks like any lingering rain will shift
east of the area around sunset. Temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid 20s Tuesday morning, so any melted snow or rain on
roadways could freeze resulting in slippery conditions.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Flash on January 09, 2021, 07:58:19 AM
I hear ya, Beth. I was bummed about nada in the backyard as well. I was hoping for some snow for Caeden who turned 5 on Thursday. We just hopped in the car, drove to Fairview and let the snow fall on us for about an hour. Made lemonade out of lemons with a side of memories. I used to be super bummed when nothing happened at my specific location but if I can drive to snow within a typical errand run's length, I've learned to accept it as a win. Beggars can't be choosers down at our latitude. Plus, climo favors our midstate quadrant for total seasonal snow so I'm glad some of our southern counties got a 'W' out of this. I do understand how it would have helped soothe a rough week. We're all in this together snow or no snow.  ::flag:: Let's hope this next snow is not a no-show/snow.  :)
Meh! Not even counting on it now.  Last night was really sh*tty. Waking up to nothing this morning was a real let down. And with all the crap in D.C., well it just seems like this year is going to be a repeat of last year if not worse.  Yeah, sorry, but not sorry I am whamby tonight. One decent snow would help a hella lot.  :-\
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 09, 2021, 08:12:00 AM
Decent agreement this morning on the Monday system with short range models. 1-3 inches for all of west Tn and some of middle.
Globals and ensembles are pretty much limited on moisture. SREF mean and short range models have higher QPF. Should get nailed down today at some point. Itís a meager event so I guess low expectations is the rule.

I think we have better chances starting in about a week. At the end of December, the EURO had us well above normal the first 10 days with no winter precip and weíve had some flakes. It has been a little above normal so far but no torch. The last half of the month looks better by my eye though.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 09, 2021, 08:15:42 AM
Is 6z NAM 3K at 24 hours is showing a lake effect snow stream reaching all the way down into western middle TN?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 09, 2021, 08:29:09 AM
Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
350 AM CST Sat Jan 9 2021

...Accumulating snowfall will be possible across portions of the
area Sunday night into Monday morning...

.A strong winter storm will begin moving into the region Sunday
through early Monday morning. Rain during the day Sunday will
transition to all snow or a wintry mix Sunday evening and into
Sunday night. Accumulating snow will be possible across the entire area...

I'll be glad when we see the above statements from our WFOs in the next two or three weeks. ::snowman:: ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 08:33:01 AM
I'll be glad when we see the above statements from our WFOs in the next two or three weeks. ::snowman:: ::fingerscrossed::
yeah we can only hope so coach... painfull watching areas south of us getting on im the fun... i got my eye out for rest the month still. lets not screw this up because afraid february window will close fast this winter.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 09, 2021, 08:42:12 AM
If anybody wants to drive to the snow today, we still have it. Come out along 840 and get off at Exit 14.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 09, 2021, 09:12:09 AM
i got my eye out for rest the month still. lets not screw this up because afraid february window will close fast this winter.

It might. I believe that's the tendency for Ninas. However, there is some hope/indication that the continued battering of the polar vortex will extend the -NAO on into February. We'll see.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 09, 2021, 09:15:08 AM
If anybody wants to drive to the snow today, we still have it. Come out along 840 and get off at Exit 14.

Deer stand view from near Mt Pleasant this morning:

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 09, 2021, 09:24:45 AM
Deer stand view from near Mt Pleasant this morning:

Peaceful scene there.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 09, 2021, 09:33:20 AM
12Z NAM hasn't backed down yet. It's still the NAM beyond 60 hours, though.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 09, 2021, 09:34:12 AM
West and SW Middle TN has the NAM and the Canadian vs everybody else
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 09, 2021, 09:34:36 AM
Either the 12z NAM found something in the new data the 0z Globals (and 0z NAM for that matter) did not see or it is wrong.

12zNAM for BNA 2-3"
0z Euro nothing
0z Euro Ensemble 0.5"
0z GFS basically nothing
0z GFS16 basically nothing
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 09, 2021, 09:41:31 AM
Good look comparing today's NAM (Left) vs Lastnight (Right)

(https://i.ibb.co/2q8V2X8/12z-NAMComp1-9-21.jpg)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 09, 2021, 09:42:33 AM
If that verified, that would be the first time I've ever seen fresh snow fall on top of old snow
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 09:43:58 AM
Good look comparing today's NAM (Left) vs Lastnight (Right)

(https://i.ibb.co/2q8V2X8/12z-NAMComp1-9-21.jpg)
you know we are in the nams deadly zone if you want call it that, could it be sniffing something out? ummm
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 09:45:24 AM
West and SW Middle TN has the NAM and the Canadian vs everybody else
plus we have hi res short range on our side too...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 09, 2021, 09:49:27 AM
12Z NAM is definitely the best look to get the most of us in play. Has accumulation from Memphis to Nashville with the TN river as the jackpot zone.

12Z GEM is farther southeast this run. Gets mostly southern middle and the Plateau.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Sbeagles on January 09, 2021, 09:55:38 AM
Nice little flizzard this morning in southwestern Perry co.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 09, 2021, 09:57:56 AM
you know we are in the nams deadly zone if you want call it that, could it be sniffing something out? ummm

12zNam 12k (left), 12zHRRR (center), 12z NAM 3k (right), all at 48 hours (since that is the HRRR limit).

NAM 3k has a much different look than the 12k, but interestingly the 12k looks more like the HRRR. So, who knows. We'll see if any of the globals show this solution.

(https://i.ibb.co/CsymwNq/Compare12z1-9-21.jpg)

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 09, 2021, 10:41:32 AM
Someone else start the thread for this one. Iím deferring my thread starting spot until this one gets here.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 10:48:34 AM
Someone else start the thread for this one. Iím deferring my thread starting spot until this one gets here.

(Attachment Link)
now thatís a snow storm there heavy wet snow. Get it close I fire up the thread. Thatís been the problem . I havenít done one in a long time . Time to get serious and pull one big snow in
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 09, 2021, 11:04:43 AM
Here's another 5 days later.
(https://i.imgur.com/dueKBgt.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 09, 2021, 11:09:23 AM
Yep, the total snowfall map for the 12Z GFS is high quality fantasy stuff for the entire state. Well, for everybody but Memphis.  >:D
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 09, 2021, 11:15:44 AM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 11:18:45 AM
(Attachment Link)
talking about a dry slot. lol classic one
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 09, 2021, 11:21:29 AM
(Attachment Link)
Iím not sure why the GFS biases temps in the metro area like that. But being in the NW side of 2 LP with plenty of QPF- if that actually happens is a good pattern synoptically.

I think the pattern is eventually going to a central US trough by late Jan with a SERó> overrunning somewhere.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 09, 2021, 11:22:01 AM
(Attachment Link)

That glitch on Tidbits that amplifies the snow totals beyond 300 hours for all areas w/ existing forecasted snowfall needs to be fixed.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 09, 2021, 11:22:50 AM
Iím not sure why the GFS biases temps in the metro area like that.

Does that for KBNA also. You'll often see a little snow island right over the Nashville Int'l Airport in southeastern Davidson County.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 11:30:54 AM
Does that for KBNA also. You'll often see a little snow island right over the Nashville Int'l Airport in southeastern Davidson County.
its called a heat island... thats what large area of pavement does for the surface temps.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2021, 11:31:46 AM
If that verified, that would be the first time I've ever seen fresh snow fall on top of old snow

really??? you didn't get the clipper snow after our good snowfall in 2011? Granted it was only about half inch to an inch but it did happen :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 09, 2021, 11:32:02 AM
its called a heat island... thats what large area of pavement does for the surface temps.
(https://media4.giphy.com/media/eikX1xkibJ4i2SklWp/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 09, 2021, 11:32:24 AM
its called a heat island... thats what large area of pavement does for the surface temps.

Yes Bruce, I know what an UHI is
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 11:33:10 AM
Iím not sure why the GFS biases temps in the metro area like that. But being in the NW side of 2 LP with plenty of QPF- if that actually happens is a good pattern synoptically.

I think the pattern is eventually going to a central US trough by late Jan with a SERó> overrunning somewhere.
i agree. we are going start seeing some crazy snow clown maps in the coming weeks. get ready
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JKT1987 on January 09, 2021, 11:33:23 AM
***snicker***
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 11:35:27 AM
(https://media4.giphy.com/media/eikX1xkibJ4i2SklWp/giphy.gif)
yeah, but you certainly got one **** of a dry slot modeled there also
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2021, 11:40:38 AM
I think 1 to 2 inches is possible in SW mid state monday, i put a ton of stock in spann the man , his FB post sure looks promising right now, if we could just get a bit more moisture this could have been a bigger one, but i won't complain, i got a surprise ULL snow so i cannot complain lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 11:42:24 AM
I think 1 to 2 inches is possible in SW mid state monday, i put a ton of stock in spann the man , his FB post sure looks promising right now, if we could just get a bit more moisture this could have been a bigger one, but i won't complain, i got a surprise ULL snow so i cannot complain lol
hope this is just a appetizer for the big stuff coming next couple weeks...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2021, 11:54:41 AM
hope this is just a appetizer for the big stuff coming next couple weeks...

if i get another inch or two out of this one monday, it would be already my biggest season since 2011 lol so i can't complain , these past several days have felt like it was when i was a kid, having multiple chances even if minor events at least there have been chances!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 09, 2021, 12:04:36 PM
yeah, but you certainly got one **** of a dry slot modeled there also

Could you please show us this massive dry slot you speak of Bruce. Yes there is some dry air that gets dragged into the backside but I am not seeing the **** dry slot you refer too. Memphis areas receives a decent amount of QPF.

This is the best I can find at the end of the 1st event. Not a big or heavy deformation zone.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/rh700/1610193600/1610992800-oqRDq707DOc.png)


(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/precip_48hr_inch/1610193600/1611057600-INEnLSYxUp0.png)


The very end of the event there is some UL interaction esp to the NW of you. Dry air does get drug in a bit here at the end. If this gets much much stronger you would see that area likey more defines and wrapped in.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/precip_3hr_inch/1610193600/1611003600-B3G5CmoQZN0.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Flash on January 09, 2021, 12:11:43 PM
Spannís FB post highlights the 6z NAM 3km, essentially the ceiling of the Monday event. Assuming that verifies, a stroll down the Trace may be in order. Not holding my breath but hopefully todayís trends will signal a slower weakening of the low.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 12:18:38 PM
Could you please show us this massive dry slot you speak of Bruce. Yes there is some dry air that gets dragged into the backside but I am not seeing the **** dry slot you refer too. Memphis areas receives a decent amount of QPF.

This is the best I can find at the end of the 1st event. Not a big or heavy deformation zone.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/rh700/1610193600/1610992800-oqRDq707DOc.png)


(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/precip_48hr_inch/1610193600/1611057600-INEnLSYxUp0.png)


The very end of the event there is some UL interaction esp to the NW of you. Dry air does get drug in a bit here at the end. If this gets much much stronger you would see that area likey more defines and wrapped in.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/precip_3hr_inch/1610193600/1611003600-B3G5CmoQZN0.png)
sorry but think your talking bout wrong system
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2021, 12:20:04 PM
Spannís FB post highlights the 6z NAM 3km, essentially the ceiling of the Monday event. Assuming that verifies, a stroll down the Trace may be in order. Not holding my breath but hopefully todayís trends will signal a slower weakening of the low.

12z nam looked half decent to me ?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 09, 2021, 12:28:57 PM
sorry but think your talking bout wrong system

What system are you speaking of?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 09, 2021, 12:35:31 PM
https://tennesseewx.com/index.php?topic=4013.new#new

The Jan 11th storm has a thread.  We will probably hold off on a thread for the Jan 17th-19th event for now, but I like that timeframe.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 12:36:37 PM
What system are you speaking of?
it was gfs in longer range rob...have to go back refresh myself... pattern looks like its absolutely ripe for a major winter storm next couple weeks least. even i am starting to finally get excited. loli
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 09, 2021, 12:43:02 PM
it was gfs in longer range rob...have to go back refresh myself... pattern looks like its absolutely ripe for a major winter storm next couple weeks least. even i am starting to finally get excited. lol

Glad you are excited for Winter. The storm I posted is in the extended GFS . I looked at the entire run . If you dont know what system you are talking about then how do you know we are not talking about the same system lol.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2021, 12:58:46 PM
https://tennesseewx.com/index.php?topic=4013.new#new

The Jan 11th storm has a thread.  We will probably hold off on a thread for the Jan 17th-19th event for now, but I like that timeframe.
i love the position of the trough being further west... allowing for systems with energy digging more.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 09, 2021, 05:22:43 PM
18z GFSv16 24 hour accumulations 0z 1/19 🤡🤡🤡🤡
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 09, 2021, 05:26:50 PM
https://tennesseewx.com/index.php?topic=4013.new#new

The Jan 11th storm has a thread.  We will probably hold off on a thread for the Jan 17th-19th event for now, but I like that timeframe.
The 17-19th is the time I am moving in some of my snow chips. ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Flash on January 09, 2021, 05:31:23 PM
A clown map for sure but Iíd be fine if half this verified. Per recent storm history, this would even out climo snow totals for most of the eastern conus. Those whoíve missed out this winter, would get caught up for sure.

18z GFSv16 24 hour accumulations 0z 1/19 🤡🤡🤡🤡
(Attachment Link)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 09, 2021, 06:04:23 PM
The mid (January 16th is to probably just before the end of month) pattern is a pretty good climo pattern for Western/Central Kentucky and West/Northwest Middle TN.  The January 2009 Ice Storm day was mentioned as an CPC analog for that pattern.   

You get troughing in the Central US and ridge near or just northeast of the Great Lakes and just enough of a Southeast Ridge symbol to promote the classic overrunning like an event that is the main scorer for those areas. 

I would say the odds are above average for West TN, most of Middle TN especially north of US 412 and west of US 231, and into Kentucky.       
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 09, 2021, 06:12:56 PM
The mid (January 16th is to probably just before the end of month) pattern is a pretty good climo pattern for Western/Central Kentucky and West/Northwest Middle TN.  The January 2009 Ice Storm day was mentioned as an CPC analog for that pattern.   

You get troughing in the Central US and ridge near or just northeast of the Great Lakes and just enough of a Southeast Ridge symbol to promote the classic overrunning like an event that is the main scorer for those areas. 

I would say the odds are above average for West TN, most of Middle TN especially north of US 412 and west of US 231, and into Kentucky.     
I totally agree, overrunning events seem to be our highest impact events in our region. We can score other ways but that is our best way no doubt in my opinion also. Our state being so long the set up for one part of the state sometimes isn't right with the other in many scenarios. It is fun when the entire state gets in on the same storm but more times than none that is not the case. ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2021, 06:14:59 PM
I totally agree, overrunning events seem to be our high impact events our our region. We can score other ways but that is our best way no doubt in my opinion also. Our state being so long the set up for one part of the state sometimes isn't right with the other in many scenarios. It is fun when the entire state gets in on the same storm but more times than none that is not the case. ::snowman::

It screams snow for pairs/clarksville / erin and the rest of us getting sleet or rain lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on January 09, 2021, 08:38:03 PM
It was **** cold today. High temps were way lower than forecast. I didnít get over 35. In fact itís been around 35 and cloudy since Thursday morning with almost no change. Seattle winter weather.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 10, 2021, 11:50:51 AM
12Z GFS had two long range storms on 1/18 and 1/22. Maybe we can reel one of these storms in. ::snowman::

(https://i.imgur.com/u1tjcen.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 10, 2021, 12:08:18 PM
Both CMC and GFS-Para have the 1/18 storm. If the Euro comes on-board we may have another storm to track.  ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 10, 2021, 01:00:35 PM
Doesn't look like Euro is on board yet
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 10, 2021, 01:24:06 PM
Doesn't look like Euro is on board yet.

Euro has been boring last couple days. Just nothing there in the long range.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 10, 2021, 01:51:00 PM
Euro has been boring last couple days. Just nothing there in the long range.

It is a bit odd that in much of the long range there are virtually no storm systems at all, and the only precipitation showing up is in Texas and in the northwest/northeast corners of the U.S.  The pattern has been more active than that lately. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 10, 2021, 02:08:20 PM
Meanwhile, Spain of all places, has just endured one of the worst snowstorms in decades. 

https://www.startribune.com/storm-filomena-blankets-spain-with-snow-disrupts-traffic/600008210/ (https://www.startribune.com/storm-filomena-blankets-spain-with-snow-disrupts-traffic/600008210/)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 10, 2021, 02:46:39 PM
Euro could be correct but the operational run has been trash in the 6 to 10 day range.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 10, 2021, 03:17:11 PM
Meanwhile, Spain of all places, has just endured one of the worst snowstorms in decades. 

https://www.startribune.com/storm-filomena-blankets-spain-with-snow-disrupts-traffic/600008210/ (https://www.startribune.com/storm-filomena-blankets-spain-with-snow-disrupts-traffic/600008210/)

Add that to places that have received more snow than most of West/Middle TN, Western KY, and North Dakota.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2021, 03:28:10 PM
Add that to places that have received more snow than most of West/Middle TN, Western KY, and North Dakota.
stlouis you can add too and more
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 10, 2021, 03:49:05 PM
Still snow on the ground here from Thursday night's ULL. It melted a bit today from the sunlight and temps rising to 36, but it will survive until Monday. Nice to have snow that sticks around instead of falling for a morning and melting by the afternoon.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: pirates1 on January 10, 2021, 04:15:17 PM
Yeah but is it enough for a snow day?! 😂
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Flash on January 10, 2021, 05:11:33 PM
Still snow on the ground here from Thursday night's ULL. It melted a bit today from the sunlight and temps rising to 36, but it will survive until Monday. Nice to have snow that sticks around instead of falling for a morning and melting by the afternoon.

Yeah, I did some driving through your area yesterday. The cut-offs were pretty notable. Barely anything in Leiper's Fork but Bon Aqua south towards Primm Springs...multiple inches. A few miles east of 840 and you can see the amounts lessen fast. You really had to be south of 40, west of 840, and north of say the Carters Creek area to find the bullseye on this one.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 10, 2021, 06:05:38 PM
No snow and the Titans lost to the dang Ravens.  ::cliff::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2021, 06:11:18 PM
No snow and the Titans lost to the dang Ravens.  ::cliff::

Man i tell ya the titans and ravens sure know how to wreck the others season in the playoffs don't they, home team never wins, odd series
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2021, 06:21:19 PM
Man i tell ya the titans and ravens sure know how to wreck the others season in the playoffs don't they, home team never wins, odd series
titans loose... no snow ... and still no stimulus check in for me yet  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 10, 2021, 06:46:50 PM
titans loose... no snow ... and still no stimulus check in for me yet  ::bangingheadintowall::

I have some yard work that needs to be done.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 10, 2021, 06:56:33 PM
The new GFS continues to say letís take this and call it a winter.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2021, 07:04:24 PM
The new GFS continues to say letís take this and call it a winter.

(Attachment Link)

a week out what could go wrong dyer lol, if that were to happen i would be fine with having a torch for the rest of the winter lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2021, 07:39:47 PM
I have some yard work that needs to be done.
i am a american tax payer... want mine
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2021, 08:41:20 PM
I guess i have come to realize that the reason we "used" to be at around 10 inches of snow in a season was because we would get a few minor events every year of 1-2 inches and once in a while get a big event (4-6+) .

But it has been several winters since we  even got the minor events to add up in a season, so the fact i got one this year of 2 inches has already made me appreciate it more and understand how tough it is to get big snows around here
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 10, 2021, 10:03:58 PM
i am a american tax payer... want mine

Your welcome since I am not getting one.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2021, 08:05:02 AM
Eps is wanting to give us the middle finger on the long range now ... still no signs of true artic air pushing south ...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 08:27:56 AM
Eps is wanting to give us the middle finger on the long range now ... still no signs of true artic air pushing south ...

Where do you view this beyond 240 hours?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2021, 08:31:06 AM
Where do you view this beyond 240 hours?
saw it posted else where ... actually
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 08:34:57 AM
saw it posted else where ... actually

Can you link it for me please?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 11, 2021, 08:55:39 AM
Where do you view this beyond 240 hours?

If you frequent the Mid Atlantic board on AmericanWx, in the long range topic, they'll post a lot of long range EPS stuff.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 11, 2021, 09:27:17 AM
Day 15 GEFS temp anomalies(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/270c2c0d6f1faf51da1d0e70b52a7b47.jpg)

Day 15 Euro Control temp anomalies
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/1ef4762052ce2327d280e7762e2853c8.jpg)


Sign me up. Thatís loaded with potential including overrunning. Iím ready to say bye to our current pattern that delivers the major snows to Texas and Louisiana.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 11, 2021, 09:33:19 AM
Day 15 GEFS temp anomalies(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/270c2c0d6f1faf51da1d0e70b52a7b47.jpg)

Day 15 Euro Control temp anomalies
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210111/1ef4762052ce2327d280e7762e2853c8.jpg)


Sign me up. Thatís loaded with potential including overrunning. Iím ready to say bye to our current pattern that delivers the major snows to Texas and Louisiana.
That Euro is sexy. I usually need a little SE ridge in my perfect pattern. Thats something we have been missing.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 09:41:44 AM
I like a little SE ridge. I hate it when North Carolina gets big snows, so the SE ridge helps box them out.  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2021, 09:47:53 AM
I like a little SE ridge. I hate it when North Carolina gets big snows, so the SE ridge helps box them out.  ::evillaugh::
little se ridge helps with a nice apps runner for sure . Thatís if we get enough cold air to work with . Perfect storm tracks we been getting but lack cold air is hurting us
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 11, 2021, 09:59:35 AM
little se ridge helps with a nice apps runner for sure . Thatís if we get enough cold air to work with . Perfect storm tracks we been getting but lack cold air is hurting us

today it was lack of moisture content or we would be getting slammed! argh but half inch to an inch is still nice especially since we in southern middle had that ULL snow last week
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 10:26:08 AM
Yeah, I did some driving through your area yesterday. The cut-offs were pretty notable. Barely anything in Leiper's Fork but Bon Aqua south towards Primm Springs...multiple inches. A few miles east of 840 and you can see the amounts lessen fast. You really had to be south of 40, west of 840, and north of say the Carters Creek area to find the bullseye on this one.

Yep, Primm Springs is where I live. We were located in the bull's eye.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2021, 11:45:57 AM
I little se ridge is good for middle and west tn, the miller b's and overrunning our are ticket most of the time. ::popcorn::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 11, 2021, 11:49:10 AM
Yep, Primm Springs is where I live. We were located in the bull's eye.

it sure was an odd event wasn't it? My street got a little over 2.5 inches when all was said and done and then a 5 or 6 miles east only got 1 inch, i think elevation played a big part in my small bullseye ? there were a few pockets like that with that event, we just got lucky lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2021, 11:51:45 AM
little se ridge helps with a nice apps runner for sure . Thatís if we get enough cold air to work with . Perfect storm tracks we been getting but lack cold air is hurting us
think might meant miller a. Snowman ☃️
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 01:36:47 PM
Shelbyville is doing consistently well this winter.

1" on Nov 30
1" on Jan 7
1" today (and counting)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 02:19:42 PM
There is hardly an air temperature gradient across the entire continent. The anomalies are much above average to the north but below average/average in the south.



Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 11, 2021, 02:52:00 PM
12z GFS and 12z euro develop another gulf low to watch around January 19-20
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2021, 03:30:53 PM
12z GFS and 12z euro develop another gulf low to watch around January 19-20
just looking at large scale there. Cold air still looking marginal during time frame ... we need a fresh artic dump of air before hand
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 11, 2021, 04:11:49 PM
just looking at large scale there. Cold air still looking marginal during time frame ... we need a fresh artic dump of air before hand
Same thing regarding temps were showing for this last event nearly 200 hours away too. Things will change one way or another

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 04:45:51 PM
Though the snow fell in the evening, I can say I saw a White Christmas in 2021.

We're Eastern Orthodox, so we recognize Christmas on January 7th.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 11, 2021, 05:02:27 PM
just looking at large scale there. Cold air still looking marginal during time frame ... we need a fresh artic dump of air before hand
Not sure where you donít think there is not enough cold air and itís marginal?  Looking at the larger picture there is going to be intrusions of artic air into the US.  We donít need really deep artic air to get snow.  If itís to deep it will lead to suppression.  Like Curt said earlier.  Overrunning looks to be on the table going forward.  Heck I just got a little over an inch with this marginal temps you say.  History shows some best snows happen when itís 31-33.  We are right on track for some more chances of snow.  Better than last few winters. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 11, 2021, 05:11:10 PM
Perfect snow temps. It has not been above 37 here in days.
Title: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 11, 2021, 05:13:25 PM
EPS teleconnections moving into the rest of January are almost too ridiculous to mention. Negative AO/NAO/EPO/WPO and a negative PNA. I wonít complain about the PNA since the EPO is about to overwhelm the pattern. I bet we arenít done with threats for awhile. The strat warm meant business. Any quick turn by models will most likely be delayed with a secondary warming in late January.

This La NiŮa looks to have bottomed out a out a month ago. The west is colder than the east. Still moderate but no declines.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2021, 05:17:35 PM
EPS teleconnections moving into the rest of January are almost too ridiculous to mention. Negative AO/NAO/EPO/WPO and a negative PNA. I wonít complain about the PNA since the EPO is about to overwhelm the pattern. I bet we arenít done with threats for awhile. The strat warm meant business. Any quick turn by models will most likely be delayed with a secondary warming in late January.

This La NiŮa looks to have bottomed out a out a month ago. The west is colder than the east. Still moderate but no declines.
the negative pna will actually help us some... it keep storms less suppressed. Could get interesting with those connections there . Nice recipe for a big dog ... ⛄️
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2021, 06:05:52 PM
Not sure where you donít think there is not enough cold air and itís marginal?  Looking at the larger picture there is going to be intrusions of artic air into the US.  We donít need really deep artic air to get snow.  If itís to deep it will lead to suppression.  Like Curt said earlier.  Overrunning looks to be on the table going forward.  Heck I just got a little over an inch with this marginal temps you say.  History shows some best snows happen when itís 31-33.  We are right on track for some more chances of snow.  Better than last few winters.
talking bout the next system up coming... models r showing marginal cold air to support snow at this time. things can chnage hopefully we see.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 11, 2021, 06:19:57 PM
Pattern depicted in the CPC 8-14 day outlook screams ice storm for either I-44 or the northern/northwestern parts of the Mid-South (Arkansas/West KY/Missouri Boothill).

Both a major I-44 Icestorm in 2007 and the 2009 Ice Storm are depicted as analogs. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 11, 2021, 06:40:41 PM
Perfect snow temps. It has not been above 37 here in days.

Dyer i think y'alls is coming soon....pattern to me looks like potential for the classic n/w tennessee snow system where n/w and n/w middle tn like paris clarksville erin and areas west  get good amounts and the rest of us get a nice cold rain
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 11, 2021, 07:02:51 PM
On this day last year, Knoxville set a record high of 77.  I'll take today's 38 with a light coating of snow.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on January 11, 2021, 08:35:50 PM
On this day last year, Knoxville set a record high of 77.  I'll take today's 38 with a light coating of snow.
Iíll flip this script, if I get one more day of 33-37 degree rain, Iím ready for some torching. Might as well have warm weather if we canít get some snow out of the cold weather.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 11, 2021, 08:49:56 PM
I'll take a cold winter with more precipitation than normal (including a higher probability of cold rain) over a torchy winter. We've had enough warm winters lately. I'm sick of spending December through February in the 60s. Time for a change. It's warm here for 8 months out of the year for Christ's sakes.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 11, 2021, 09:16:30 PM
Models will have a hard time as we enter 8-14 time frame of knowing how far the artic air seeps into the mid south.  Definitely an overrunning pattern setting up.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 11, 2021, 09:50:21 PM
Pattern depicted in the CPC 8-14 day outlook screams ice storm for either I-44 or the northern/northwestern parts of the Mid-South (Arkansas/West KY/Missouri Boothill).

Both a major I-44 Icestorm in 2007 and the 2009 Ice Storm are depicted as analogs.
I think we can put west tn and northern middle tn in this as well. Not that we will get it but it is our type of setup as well. ::fingerscrossed::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clint on January 11, 2021, 10:08:05 PM
Here's the 0Z ICON on 1/18.

(https://i.imgur.com/q88PwCw.png)



Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Scot on January 11, 2021, 10:18:00 PM
Here's the 0Z ICON on 1/18.

(https://i.imgur.com/q88PwCw.png)
GFS looking decent too.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 12, 2021, 08:10:36 AM
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1348988068372602880 (https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1348988068372602880)

 ::snowman:: ::popcorn::

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 12, 2021, 09:02:55 AM
Looks like a pretty decent signal for that southern slider:

(https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2021011206/SE/GEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_180.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2021, 09:22:36 AM
Looks like a pretty decent signal for that southern slider:

(https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2021011206/SE/GEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_180.png)
looks anemic outside the higher elevation regions lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 12, 2021, 09:27:02 AM
looks anemic outside the higher elevation regions lol
You can't look at small details that far out. You have to look at the overall pattern

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2021, 09:39:26 AM
You can't look at small details that far out. You have to look at the overall pattern

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
agree with u . Pattern recognition looking for.  Guess ready for the big dog  jd. lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 12, 2021, 11:06:32 AM
Both the 12Z OP GFS and CMC are suppressed with the Monday potential. Some like to see suppression at this range. Lets see what the EURO and ENS have to say.  Continued:  ::coffee::   ::popcorn::

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021011212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021011212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_22.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 12, 2021, 11:21:58 AM
idk how so many times our systems get suppressed like that? but that low is VERY far south so it has time to move north northwest about 200 miles :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 12, 2021, 11:24:33 AM
the past week was a wonderful week for winter fans, not a TON of snow but a few inches in two different systems for a lot of people and temps never got above 40 for the past several days for most of us , a TRUE week of winter for the first time in a long time
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 12, 2021, 12:01:13 PM
looks anemic outside the higher elevation regions lol
Cue Debbie downer. Bruce come on.  If it was a hint of severe wx you would be screaming defcon 3 with that look.  The pattern is right on cue to be a possibility of a statewide overrunning event.  I will take my chances.  That also a mean.  Which is not a bad mean this far out.  Will it happen who knows but still better than last few winters of 70-80 each day. Also better than cold and dry.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2021, 12:09:48 PM
Cue Debbie downer. Bruce come on.  If it was a hint of severe wx you would be screaming defcon 3 with that look.  The pattern is right on cue to be a possibility of a statewide overrunning event.  I will take my chances.  That also a mean.  Which is not a bad mean this far out.  Will it happen who knows but still better than last few winters of 70-80 each day. Also better than cold and dry.
know what snow mean map is... u start showing me 2 inch plus mean, then color me excited
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 12, 2021, 12:40:31 PM
Cue Debbie downer. Bruce come on.  If it was a hint of severe wx you would be screaming defcon 3 with that look.  The pattern is right on cue to be a possibility of a statewide overrunning event.  I will take my chances.  That also a mean.  Which is not a bad mean this far out.  Will it happen who knows but still better than last few winters of 70-80 each day. Also better than cold and dry.

it sure is a good looking pattern, if we can just get a Low pressure to go where we need it, it would be a big hit for most everybody in the state !
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2021, 12:45:10 PM
the past week was a wonderful week for winter fans, not a TON of snow but a few inches in two different systems for a lot of people and temps never got above 40 for the past several days for most of us , a TRUE week of winter for the first time in a long time

It really was. Five days of snow cover with only one day with a high above freezing.

Today we're returning to a high in the low 40s and a low in the mid 20s with nice sunshine. Looks nice the rest of the week. No signs of muggy, nasty weather like we had last "winter." I do not like humid days in the middle of January with mild temperatures.

Peak at a lovely high of 55, then back to chances of winter weather  ::yum::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Vols1 on January 12, 2021, 12:45:51 PM
The National weather service is talking about a system for Saturday now. Said itíll be interesting to watch and should be cold enough for snow. Iíve not really seen this lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 12, 2021, 12:55:36 PM
Euro coming around and now has a system day 8-9.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 12, 2021, 12:57:49 PM
The National weather service is talking about a system for Saturday now. Said itíll be interesting to watch and should be cold enough for snow. Iíve not really seen this lol

they mention northeastern area of mid state but i didn't see anything either?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 12, 2021, 01:14:12 PM
the past week was a wonderful week for winter fans, not a TON of snow but a few inches in two different systems for a lot of people and temps never got above 40 for the past several days for most of us , a TRUE week of winter for the first time in a long time
Your not speaking for many on this forum. But optimistic something will happen for folks north of I-40 and west of I-65 for west and middle tenn and our southern ky members. Congrats to the folks in southern and east tn for the winter weather they have received I am glad for you.::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Sbeagles on January 12, 2021, 01:27:06 PM
Your not speaking for many on this forum. But optimistic something will happen for folks north of I-40 for west and middle tenn.Congrats to the folks in southern and east tn.::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Unfortunately not all of us south of 40 have cashed in on the past couple systems. Parts of the county got some small accumulations but in my area we have racked up 0.00" of snow so far. Hopeful the next couple weeks bring something better.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 12, 2021, 01:29:27 PM
Unfortunately not all of us south of 40 have cashed in on the past couple systems. Parts of the county got some small accumulations but in my area we have racked up 0.00" of snow so far. Hopeful the next couple weeks bring something better.
No doubt much of the southern tn snow was localized, east tn has done pretty good so far. I am hopeful for the rest of the state but much of the state is still waiting just like you said. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on January 12, 2021, 01:32:26 PM
No doubt much of the southern tn snow was localized, east tn has done pretty good so far. I am hopeful for the rest of the state but much of the state is still waiting just like you said. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
And letís send some of it to southern Indiana


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 12, 2021, 01:36:55 PM
And letís send some of it to southern Indiana


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Always pulling for ya Drift. Are you planning on moving back to Henry County at some point? I thought I heard you mention it earlier in the year. ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 12, 2021, 01:50:27 PM
Unfortunately not all of us south of 40 have cashed in on the past couple systems. Parts of the county got some small accumulations but in my area we have racked up 0.00" of snow so far. Hopeful the next couple weeks bring something better.

Dang, if you are south of Nashville and haven't scored off either of the last 2 systems, you win the unluckiest prize. Sorry man.  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2021, 02:14:33 PM
The snow was very localized. As much as 3.5" was reported in Williamson County just to the west of Burwood, but Brentwood got nothing on the first ULL and a dusting on the next.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2021, 02:26:49 PM
Dang, if you are south of Nashville and haven't scored off either of the last 2 systems, you win the unluckiest prize. Sorry man.  ::bagoverhead::
o yeah  love your new avatar. mr. al wilson from jackson... my old high school jacson central merry high. saw him play many friday nights, man amongst   boys out there  go vols .  ... sorry back to weather lol 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on January 12, 2021, 02:33:45 PM
Always pulling for ya Drift. Are you planning on moving back to Henry County at some point? I thought I heard you mention it earlier in the year. ::snowman::
Yeah probably in the summer.


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Sbeagles on January 12, 2021, 02:35:50 PM
Dang, if you are south of Nashville and haven't scored off either of the last 2 systems, you win the unluckiest prize. Sorry man.  ::bagoverhead::
Linden had a very light dusting yesterday but south of there, where I'm at had snow fall but nothing stuck. Thursday night we had rain, yet 1/2 mile up the road on a pretty steep ridge had a healthy dusting. I don't know the exact elevation difference from my house and the top of this ridge but it was interesting to see the difference a few hundred feet can make.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 12, 2021, 02:54:15 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210112/c18b28215155e4c800e2a8e00b9ae36c.jpg)

Little Rock snow drought. Memphis International is in the same boat currently although localized areas around here have had minor 1-3 inch events in November 2018 and again in February 2020. The 90ís were atrocious in Little Rock - and here too actually. But good to know there are plenty of droughts NOT in the current (or close to)100 year period. Little Rock actually has turned things around there until the last 2 crappy years. Nothing beats Birminghamís nearly 3000 day snow drought from 2000-2008.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 12, 2021, 03:07:34 PM
Did dallas get an inch out of last event? I know the last one they had was the march 2015 system, and back in the day they used to get more , I can't tell you how many times can i remember seeing an event happening in dallas and hearing bill hall say , "and you know if it's snowing in Dallas it will be coming here too" lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2021, 03:40:47 PM
Snow totals from September 30th to January 12th. Click on image for best resolution.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2021, 04:01:39 PM
American cities getting the shaft (snow dome/ well below normal snow):

Rochester, NY
Atlantic City, NJ
Washington, DC
Virginia Beach/Norfolk, VA
Charlotte, NC
Raleigh, NC
Nashville, TN
Memphis, TN
Chattanooga, TN
Cincinnati, OH
Louisville, KY
Evansville, IN
Indianapolis, IN
Chicago, IL
Kalamazoo, MI
St. Louis, MO
Little Rock, AR
Texarkana, AR
Williston, ND
Salt Lake City, UT
Portland, OR
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 12, 2021, 04:43:41 PM
So far in Johnson City where I live we have had 10.5 inches so far with 6.5 on Christmas Eve. The last 5 years we have average 14 inches with 22 inches one year and only 10 or 11 a couple years. Being at 1,800 feet helps. The year we got 11 was when we got 10 with one snow so in spite of the yucky winters lately we have been lucky a few times


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 12, 2021, 04:44:12 PM
American cities getting the shaft (snow dome/ well below normal snow):

Atlantic City, NJ
Washington, DC
Charlotte, NC
Raleigh, NC
Little Rock, AR
Nashville, TN
Memphis, TN
Chattanooga, TN
Evansville, IN
Chicago, IL
St. Louis, MO

west and central oklahoma have really done very well this year
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2021, 04:48:43 PM
Edited to include some more cities
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 12, 2021, 05:22:15 PM
The goofus is just 1 batty run after another. The 18 says we have 2 good rain events to look forward to. ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Beth on January 12, 2021, 05:31:10 PM
We had a really decent snow yesterday. No it was not much but the kids got to do some sledding. We had lots of beautiful birds to watch from our den window.  So I am okay now.  But I still dream of a 6 inch or more snow.  And hope the whole state benefits from it!   ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2021, 05:54:27 PM
January looks like it will safely finish below normal for my locality. I think the last time that occurred was 2014. Perhaps 2018 was close. The other Januarys have been  ::blowtorch::  ::blowtorch::  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 12, 2021, 06:03:04 PM
American cities getting the shaft (snow dome/ well below normal snow):

Atlantic City, NJ
Washington, DC
Virginia Beach/Norfolk, VA
Charlotte, NC
Raleigh, NC
Nashville, TN
Memphis, TN
Chattanooga, TN
Cincinnati, OH
Louisville, KY
Evansville, IN
Chicago, IL
St. Louis, MO
Little Rock, AR
Texarkana, AR
Salt Lake City, UT

The entire state of North Dakota as well.  There are places in TX that have more snow to date this winter than Bismarck does.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2021, 06:32:32 PM
American cities getting the shaft (snow dome/ well below normal snow):

Atlantic City, NJ
Washington, DC
Virginia Beach/Norfolk, VA
Charlotte, NC
Raleigh, NC
Nashville, TN
Memphis, TN
Chattanooga, TN
Cincinnati, OH
Louisville, KY
Evansville, IN
Chicago, IL
St. Louis, MO
Little Rock, AR
Texarkana, AR
Salt Lake City, UT
can I add Jackson tn we got population of near 100k itís a  city ...  guess Memphis covers us also  lol...
Title: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 12, 2021, 07:06:50 PM
Chicago only has 4 inches. Way below normal.

Edit- I see you added it. Good move.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 12, 2021, 08:06:01 PM
American cities getting the shaft (snow dome/ well below normal snow):

Rochester, NY
Atlantic City, NJ
Washington, DC
Virginia Beach/Norfolk, VA
Charlotte, NC
Raleigh, NC
Nashville, TN
Memphis, TN
Chattanooga, TN
Cincinnati, OH
Louisville, KY
Evansville, IN
Indianapolis, IN
Chicago, IL
Kalamazoo, MI
St. Louis, MO
Little Rock, AR
Texarkana, AR
Williston, ND
Salt Lake City, UT
Portland, OR

Updated list. Using my best idea of where these cities are located, plus weather records and observations from you all, this is what I've come up with. The biggest loser so far this winter might just be the suburbs just to the west of Rochester, NY. They average more than 70" of snow per season, and they haven't even gotten more than some areas in Middle Tennessee per the map. I checked Rochester's wx records and they report 12" since July 1. That's well below normal.

Rural areas such as western North Dakota, north-central Kansas, central Michigan, and a large swath of Missouri, llinois, and Indiana have less than many of us Tennessee have reported so far. Western Kentucky, too, has sat out this winter. That could quickly change, but it has been a very lousy winter for much of the Midwest and the Great Lakes.

The coastal Mid-Atlantic has also done badly. Most of North Carolina, Virginia, eastern Maryland, DC, Delaware, and Southern New Jersey have struck out entirely, measuring less than an inch.

Areas that usually see an accumulating snow event by mid-January which have been shut out include Central/SW Arkansas, the western reaches of the Dallas/FW metro, most of North Alabama, North Georgia, and Eastern North Carolina, and patches of West Tennessee and Western Kentucky.

Overperformers: West Texas and Western Oklahoma, Northern Louisiana, Central Mississippi, eastern Ohio and Western PA, and stretches of the Apps from East Tennessee to southern New York state.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 12, 2021, 08:16:32 PM
Updated list. Using my best idea of where these cities are located, plus weather records and observations from you all, this is what I've come up with. The biggest loser so far this winter might just be the suburbs just to the west of Rochester, NY. They average more than 70" of snow per season, and they haven't even gotten more than some areas in Middle Tennessee per the map. I checked Rochester's wx records and they report 12" since July 1. That's well below normal.

Rural areas such as western North Dakota, north-central Kansas, central Michigan, and a large swath of Missouri, llinois, and Indiana have less than many of us Tennessee have reported so far. Western Kentucky, too, has sat out this winter. That could quickly change, but it has been a very lousy winter for much of the Midwest and the Great Lakes.

The coastal Mid-Atlantic has also done badly. Most of North Carolina, Virginia, eastern Maryland, DC, Delaware, and Southern New Jersey have struck out entirely, measuring less than an inch.

Areas that usually see an accumulating snow event by mid-January which have been shut out include Central/SW Arkansas, the western reaches of the Dallas/FW metro, most of North Alabama, North Georgia, and Eastern North Carolina, and patches of West Tennessee and Western Kentucky.

Overperformers: West Texas and Western Oklahoma, Northern Louisiana, Central Mississippi, eastern Ohio and Western PA, and stretches of the Apps from East Tennessee to southern New York state.

My old town as a kid in Ocean county NJ got 5.5 inches on that nor'easter, so they are on decent pace to get to their 25 inch average....one thing about the mid atlantic and northeast is all it takes is ONE storm and you can get your entire season average in one day, I saw it as a kid just your standard noreaster bringing 8-10 inches and crazy wind and snow , those things are POWERFUL . I think those places will catch up this year , but last year i think they did HORRIBLE
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 13, 2021, 07:04:47 AM
Skies didn't clear here yesterday until sunset. A perfect recipe for widespread freezing fog this morning with abundant low level moisture left over.

Quote
...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility less than one mile in freezing fog.

* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee, southwest Virginia and
  southwest North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility and
  potential frost on bridges.

Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2021, 07:44:24 AM
Freezing fog left a beautiful mark on Middle Tennessee this morning.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on January 13, 2021, 07:50:02 AM
Freezing fog left a beautiful mark on Middle Tennessee this morning.
Same. Looks like snow or ZR accumulation on every single tree branch. Very efficient radiational cooling last night. Got down to 19.2 IMBY despite a reported low of 25 a few miles away at the airport.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2021, 08:05:42 AM
hoping we don't enter just a blah type of cool dry pattern during peak winter time over the next 10 days, i really am not seeing much popping up yet to get me excited, that type of weather is so boring lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2021, 08:09:48 AM
hoping we don't enter just a blah type of cool dry pattern during peak winter time over the next 10 days, i really am not seeing much popping up yet to get me excited, that type of weather is so boring lol
pattern looks kind meh to me bama moving forward . Sux we are heading into prime time winter man
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 13, 2021, 09:01:46 AM
Yeah since the models are set in stone from start to finish there is nothing coming up for us to be excited about. ::scratch::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2021, 09:06:12 AM
Yeah since the models are set in stone from start to finish there is nothing coming up for us to be excited about. ::scratch::

my post said i "hope" we don't enter a blah pattern, and that i don't see anything popping up "yet" so obviously that means i understand that models can change and are not set in stone
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 13, 2021, 09:18:39 AM
pattern looks kind meh to me bama moving forward . Sux we are heading into prime time winter man

Someone say Priiiiiiime Time....

(https://media.giphy.com/media/hvLo02GMIlLKYrmFah/giphy-downsized.gif)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2021, 09:53:29 AM
Someone say Priiiiiiime Time....

(https://media.giphy.com/media/hvLo02GMIlLKYrmFah/giphy-downsized.gif)

LOL that man could FLY!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2021, 10:54:32 AM
Our higher elevations may see some light accumulations this weekend. I can't speak much for places below 1000 feet, but cities like Clarksville might have a shot.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2021, 11:10:22 AM
Our higher elevations may see some light accumulations this weekend. I can't speak much for places below 1000 feet, but cities like Clarksville might have a shot.

Pretty much in northeastern zones you think right?  I am really hoping some of our west tn and nw middle tn friends can get something soon too
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JHart on January 13, 2021, 11:40:12 AM
The 12Z GFS looks cold from January 25 - 29.  That look would be frigid if there were significant cold air in Canada that could be tapped.

The 12Z  GFS Para on the other hand, could not be much more different in that time frame.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 13, 2021, 12:28:45 PM
Pretty good pattern thoughts from DT:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq_mmGlRalY&ab_channel=DTwxrisk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq_mmGlRalY&ab_channel=DTwxrisk)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 13, 2021, 01:33:18 PM
Pretty good pattern thoughts from DT:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq_mmGlRalY&ab_channel=DTwxrisk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq_mmGlRalY&ab_channel=DTwxrisk)
I hope he is right, maybe the lag time with the SSW is just taking a little longer than we expected. The last of January into the first 7-10 days of Feb is still a good time for us climo wise. I do still think the back half of Feb goes warm, but if we could get a good 2 weeks of action I would be happy. The period from the 22nd to the 28th has to start bringing the goods I would think, we don't need the start time pushed into Feb it's gets more risky at that point in my opinion. But the last 7-10 days of Jan through the first 7-10 days of Feb could be sweet if it happens during that time frame.The maps projecting the overrunning scenario were exciting.::fingerscrossed::  ::popcorn::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 13, 2021, 01:37:45 PM
I hope he is right, maybe the lag time for the SSW is just a little longer than we expected. The last of January into the first 7-10 days of Feb is still a good time for us climo wise.

I'm pretty sure I remember reading from Cohen that the lag time was as much as 25-30 days for the effects of a SSW to potentially be felt in the eastern US. That would put us in the first week of February.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2021, 02:39:37 PM
I hope he is right, maybe the lag time with the SSW is just taking a little longer than we expected. The last of January into the first 7-10 days of Feb is still a good time for us climo wise. I do still think the back half of Feb goes warm, but if we could get a good 2 weeks of action I would be happy. The period from the 22nd to the 28th has to start bringing the goods I would think, we don't need the start time pushed into Feb it's gets more risky at that point in my opinion. But the last 7-10 days of Jan through the first 7-10 days of Feb could be sweet if it happens during that time frame.The maps projecting the overrunning scenario were exciting.::fingerscrossed::  ::popcorn::  ::snowman::

Be careful sharing an opinion that is even slightly negative, you will get bashed :) .
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: bugalou on January 13, 2021, 02:52:25 PM
Pretty good pattern thoughts from DT:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq_mmGlRalY&ab_channel=DTwxrisk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq_mmGlRalY&ab_channel=DTwxrisk)
This further reenforces my thoughts on ice.  Someone is going to get wacked by an icestorm in this kind of pattern.  Of course to the north of that will be some good snows too.  Over all I like the way things look for us over the next few weeks.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2021, 03:16:35 PM
never underestimate the power of shade lol, i still have around a quarter inch of snow from the first ULL in all shady areas of my yard lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 13, 2021, 06:30:43 PM
Be careful sharing an opinion that is even slightly negative, you will get bashed :) .
What was negative? Everyone on here knows I love snow. I see no negative. ::shrug::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2021, 06:41:15 PM
What was negative? Everyone on here knows I love snow. I see no negative. ::shrug::

you weren't negative at all to me lol, but i made a similar type of comment recently and got some comments at me , some people just get their feathers ruffled easy :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2021, 06:44:53 PM
you weren't negative at all to me lol, but i made a similar type of comment recently and got some comments at me , some people just get their feathers ruffled easy :)
what if someone is negative... I mean this winter been pretty plain this far . Hope for better we see as we move forward
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2021, 07:00:05 PM
The NAM and RGEM want us to look at this coming weekend for some light accumulations. We'll see.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 13, 2021, 07:53:19 PM
what if someone is negative... I mean this winter been pretty plain this far . Hope for better we see as we move forward
You know me, I am glass half full guy and I am hopeful for the end of Jan-beginning of Feb. But living here all my life I am a realist when I have to be when it comes to the weather. It has been cooler and some places that usually don't get snow have gotten it so far, but we all look out for our own areas as well. At least we have had a few things to track and I do think things are going to pick up here soon for at least a few weeks hopefully. I just believe if we haven't had a good storm by the end of the 2nd week of Feb we are probably not going to see it. Again give me a snow in late feb and early march I will gladly say I was wrong. ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on January 13, 2021, 08:46:37 PM
 https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/warming-above-the-arctic-circle-could-mean-snow-several-weeks-from-now (https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/warming-above-the-arctic-circle-could-mean-snow-several-weeks-from-now)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 13, 2021, 08:56:54 PM
https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/warming-above-the-arctic-circle-could-mean-snow-several-weeks-from-now (https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/warming-above-the-arctic-circle-could-mean-snow-several-weeks-from-now)

"So keep an eye out toward the end of this month. Somewhere in the United States, possibly even the mid-south could see a major snowstorm."

Don't go too far out on that limb, Davis. Geez.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Flash on January 13, 2021, 09:07:19 PM
"So keep an eye out toward the end of this month. Somewhere in the United States, possibly even the mid-south could see a major snowstorm."

Don't go too far out on that limb, Davis. Geez.

He said "could" so by today's standards, he's covered. ;)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2021, 09:08:41 PM
"So keep an eye out toward the end of this month. Somewhere in the United States, possibly even the mid-south could see a major snowstorm."

Don't go too far out on that limb, Davis. Geez.

Good ol davis, he loves winter events!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Michael on January 13, 2021, 09:18:42 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210112/c18b28215155e4c800e2a8e00b9ae36c.jpg)

Little Rock snow drought. Memphis International is in the same boat currently although localized areas around here have had minor 1-3 inch events in November 2018 and again in February 2020. The 90ís were atrocious in Little Rock - and here too actually. But good to know there are plenty of droughts NOT in the current (or close to)100 year period. Little Rock actually has turned things around there until the last 2 crappy years. Nothing beats Birminghamís nearly 3000 day snow drought from 2000-2008.
Look at #1 and #10. Appears they had one 1Ē+ snow in 2900 days.


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Title: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 13, 2021, 10:55:07 PM
Look at #1 and #10. Appears they had one 1Ē+ snow in 2900 days.


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Add in #6 and you get two > 1 inch snowstorms in almost 3900 days. They more then made up for it afterwards.Kids in elementary to Sr High from 1989 to 2000 truly didnít know what a snow day meant.
Title: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 13, 2021, 11:00:15 PM
My wife is working at nights from home and it gave me time to do an analysis of 96 winter storms (more west centric) from 1948 to present. Lots of data to come but the most important teleconnection for a winter storm is the EPO>AO>NAO>PNA.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 14, 2021, 03:54:50 AM
As bad as this winter has been for snow outside of a few select south and east TN locations the -NAO has saved us from a winter that would probably rival 2011-2012 in all-out suck if it wasn't there.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Flash on January 14, 2021, 07:53:30 AM
In terms of light snow prospects, recent NAM runs looking interesting for the weekend. Hard to get excited for <1" ops during peak winter climo but it seems there's a little something to watch as we wait for long-term clarity.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2021, 08:02:50 AM
My wife is working at nights from home and it gave me time to do an analysis of 96 winter storms (more west centric) from 1948 to present. Lots of data to come but the most important teleconnection for a winter storm is the EPO>AO>NAO>PNA.

Excellent work, Curt. I have seen a map published where snowfall amounts in the Tennessee Valley increase by 75-100% with a strongly negative AO. That's good news for us, as our -AO is not expected to budge at least going into February. I'm glad your analysis has found it to be a teleconnection with a high correlation for winter storms here.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 14, 2021, 08:34:31 AM
My wife is working at nights from home and it gave me time to do an analysis of 96 winter storms (more west centric) from 1948 to present. Lots of data to come but the most important teleconnection for a winter storm is the EPO>AO>NAO>PNA.

You have my attention, go on...   ::popcorn::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 14, 2021, 08:40:21 AM
In terms of light snow prospects, recent NAM runs looking interesting for the weekend. Hard to get excited for <1" ops during peak winter climo but it seems there's a little something to watch as we wait for long-term clarity.

Not a ton of moisture with this next system but its going to be interesting to watch. If models are under estimating QPG and it does push right on into Middle and East TN a advisory will likely be hoisted along the KY and TN border into the Plateau region. We will have some dry air to work with again but overall it light snow showers are likely for most North of I-40 and East of I-65. Globals have the medium term a mess right now. One signal I am seeing is a Atmospheric River setting up in the next 10-15 days along the West coast. Much further South with a better direction for the Sierras. This will throw a pretty big ridge up in the central US. Where this axis sets up is going to determine a lot. I suspect 240 hours out will change drastically as these upper level systems decide what they want to do.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2021, 09:26:07 AM
My wife is working at nights from home and it gave me time to do an analysis of 96 winter storms (more west centric) from 1948 to present. Lots of data to come but the most important teleconnection for a winter storm is the EPO>AO>NAO>PNA.
I have never been impressed with the - NAO for west Tn. It can help but it helps east of here much more. Now the - AO is a different story.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2021, 10:07:51 AM
You have my attention, go on...   ::popcorn::
There some really good data by just analyzing records. When I get settled for a period of time, I will get some stats out. For starters, 60 of the 96 winter storms in west Tn(and most of not all were for Middle and at least parts of East) required a negative EPO.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 14, 2021, 10:24:59 AM
There some really good data by just analyzing records. When I get settled for a period of time, I will get some stats out. For starters, 60 of the 96 winter storms in west Tn(and most of not all were for Middle and at least parts of East) required a negative EPO.
When you have more time, look at the pna as well and how that correlated with winter storms here in the midsouth. I mean was it more negative, positive, neutral in our biggest systems.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 14, 2021, 10:38:10 AM
I think it is looking great for some snow showers that could pack quiet a punch for tomorrow night and the one early Monday.  The second one appears to be a classic clipper.  Been sometime since seen those. To me anything we get before the really cold air settles in.  Is a bonus.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2021, 11:00:55 AM
I think it is looking great for some snow showers that could pack quiet a punch for tomorrow night and the one early Monday.  The second one appears to be a classic clipper.  Been sometime since seen those. To me anything we get before the really cold air settles in.  Is a bonus.
The NAM actually looks like it is trying to pop some thundersnow showers.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 14, 2021, 11:35:22 AM
The NAM actually looks like it is trying to pop some thundersnow showers.
Can see it in the streaky accum maps:
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021011412/nam3km_asnow_seus_61.png)

Most generous/widespread one I could find:
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2021011412/wrf-nmm_asnow_seus_48.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2021, 11:40:59 AM
Good. We need that to patch in those areas of the state with snow holes this winter. Looking at West Tennessee and Northern Middle.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 14, 2021, 11:45:39 AM
Can see it in the streaky accum maps:
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021011412/nam3km_asnow_seus_61.png)

Most generous/widespread one I could find:
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2021011412/wrf-nmm_asnow_seus_48.png)

that would be an interesting little surprise for sure
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 14, 2021, 11:48:52 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErtaQ6sXEAA8Wj6?format=jpg&name=medium)

Quote
More "notable" weather will come Friday evening into Saturday
with the potential for some snow by Saturday AM. Models continue
to show some moisture swinging down into Middle TN through the
overnight hours. 850mb temps will be well below freezing by Friday
afternoon with surface temps nearing freezing overnight Friday.
This forecast doesn't appear to be the typical moisture vs. cold
air as cold air should arrive with time to spare. Where the
forecast gets complex is with how much moisture will make it down
to Middle TN. There does appear to be some subsidence early
Saturday which could play spoiler for our snow potential. In
addition, some model soundings are showing some low-level dryness.
Right now, if we can get the moisture we need and overcome any
dry air and subsidence, those along the Plateau and closer to the
TN/KY border appear to have the best chance of snowfall
accumulations, if any. Right now have a dusting for counties along
the Plateau and a few counties east of I-24 along the TN/KY
border. Any accumulations would likely occur early Saturday
through maybe mid-morning if temps stay cold enough. Temps will
begin to warm through the day on Saturday, so any lingering
moisture could transition back to a light, cold rain mainly on the
Plateau.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2021, 12:22:28 PM
Like the part that says "models are trending upward.."  Keep on trending models.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2021, 12:26:39 PM
Some locations in the state could get another surprise coating with this one.

Quote
Overall, QPF will be fairly light for the majority of the area.
However, as the cold air deepens very steep lapse rates that are
near adiabatic from the surface through the mid-levels will allow
for potential CI to develop which would promote snow banding.
Pinpointing the location of these bands is impossible. Any
location under one of these bands would likely pickup some quick
snow accumulations early Saturday morning/early afternoon
.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2021, 01:49:54 PM
Here is the winter storm since 1948 breakdown by ENSO:

Weak El NiŮo 19
Mod El NiŮo  8
Strong El NiŮo 5

Weak La NiŮa 19
Mod La NiŮa 15
Strong La NiŮa 3

Neutral 26

Kinda pokes a hole in that La NiŮa sucks theory.


* need to dig deeper on ENSO in 1948 so didnít include
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2021, 02:02:40 PM
Ice Storm History?

1/4/1950 (bad extreme West Tn) which was a strong La NiŮa:

PNA strongly negative
EPO negative
AO strongly negative
NAO weak negative

1/30/1951 which was a weak La NiŮa:

PNA negative
EPO strongly negative
AO weak positive/ neutral
NAO weak positive/ neutral

3/1/60 in a neutral ENSO:

PNA negative
EPO strongly negative
AO weak negative to neutral
NAO negative

1/4/74 which was a strong La NiŮa(this was bad West TN):

PNA strongly negative
EPO strongly negative
AO weak positive to neutral
NAO weak positive to neutral

1/30/85 which was a weak to moderate  La NiŮa and devastating for northern AL, mostly sleet and snow for West and Middle TN:

PNA strongly negative
EPO strongly negative
AO strongly negative
NAO weak negative

2/9/94 neutral ENSO major ice storm much of the state

PNA strongly negative
EPO positive
AO weak negative
NAO neutral

We can definitely see some overlapping trends here. Not too hard to see.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2021, 02:14:28 PM
Makes sense that the PNA would be negative for ice in the midsouth.  It's about the only way you can have a deep overrunning event over Arctic air in our area.  If the western trough is very broad, and extends into the plains toward our area, it would allow enough shallow cold air into the Ohio/TN valleys, while not crushing the moisture toward the Gulf and East Coast that usually occurs in a strong +PNA.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 14, 2021, 03:22:55 PM
well for a change this potential event looks like one that will benefit those closest to the KY border
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 14, 2021, 03:25:51 PM
Makes sense that the PNA would be negative for ice in the midsouth.  It's about the only way you can have a deep overrunning event over Arctic air in our area.  If the western trough is very broad, and extends into the plains toward our area, it would allow enough shallow cold air into the Ohio/TN valleys, while not crushing the moisture toward the Gulf and East Coast that usually occurs in a strong +PNA.

I liked the overrunning events tbh. A mix of everything is always fun. But I love punishment
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2021, 04:23:42 PM
NAM with snow supercells. Incoming snownadoes.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Beth on January 14, 2021, 04:27:26 PM
NAM with snow supercells. Incoming snownadoes.


(Attachment Link)
I hope one of those snownadoes hits my house!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 14, 2021, 04:35:21 PM
I hope one of those snownadoes hits my house!  ::snowman::

think of those massive pop up thunderstorm gulley washers, if one of those could ever occur with snow that would be something to see lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2021, 07:42:56 PM
Talk about a kick in the gut. This diving out of the north and falls apart.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2021, 07:46:06 PM
Talk about a kick in the gut. This diving out of the north and falls apart.

(Attachment Link)
for real... think its more like a good kick in the nuts.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 14, 2021, 08:54:53 PM
Talk about a kick in the gut. This diving out of the north and falls apart.

(Attachment Link)

and the other day it was coming in from south and fell apart ( at least the heavy moisture) , one day it will all work out for us !
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 14, 2021, 09:34:35 PM
sws out for mid state
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Beth on January 14, 2021, 09:42:23 PM
sws out for mid state
:: ::pondering::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 15, 2021, 05:31:42 AM
Itís looks to me like the rest of January is a bust for Tennessee with no real cold air or storms. Hope Iím reading it wrong


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2021, 06:47:05 AM
Itís looks to me like the rest of January is a bust for Tennessee with no real cold air or storms. Hope Iím reading it wrong


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bingo... we have winner here.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 15, 2021, 07:19:59 AM
Where did this come from?

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021011506/gfs_asnow24_seus_30.png)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on January 15, 2021, 07:23:09 AM
Itís looks to me like the rest of January is a bust for Tennessee with no real cold air or storms.

I wouldn't be too dejected just yet. No models had tonight's system shown until early this week, if memory serves me correct. We all know things can change pretty quickly around here, mostly for the bad, but sometimes for the good.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 15, 2021, 07:45:58 AM
Itís looks to me like the rest of January is a bust for Tennessee with no real cold air or storms. Hope Iím reading it wrong


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Both euro and GFS ensemble show a cross polar flow around the 25th and with a split flow. Itís got potential. Both show BN temps from the 25th onward- probably the SSW finally making it to the surface. If the warm biases EPS shows cold air anywhere in the extended, itís probably underdone.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2021, 07:53:35 AM
6Z GFS wants to play with us.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2021, 08:15:19 AM
6Z GFS wants to play with us.
its the 6 z gfs donít fall for it man
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Eric on January 15, 2021, 08:16:44 AM
its the 6 z gfs donít fall for it man

All southern sliders within 200 hours need to be watched. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 15, 2021, 08:22:39 AM
All southern sliders within 200 hours need to be watched.

hopefully no n/w trend lol it is fine right where it is !
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2021, 08:40:58 AM
All southern sliders within 200 hours need to be watched.
if the 12z suits pick up on this type solution, then put me back in the game coach.,
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 15, 2021, 09:06:11 AM
if the 12z suits pick up on this type solution, then put me back in the game coach.,

You left the game like Lamar Jackson did a few weeks ago, tight cheek waddling to the lockerroom.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2021, 09:08:02 AM
You left the game like Lamar Jackson did a few weeks ago, tight cheek waddling to the lockerroom.

 ::rofl::

Seriously, Bruce. Get off the winter bus. This bus is for players.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2021, 09:12:43 AM
::rofl::

Seriously, Bruce. Get off the winter bus. This bus is for players.
got get a game first man, but least you got practice still... lol 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 15, 2021, 10:12:13 AM
Iím seeing Debbie Downer in football pads and helmet. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2021, 01:26:06 PM
The storm track is consistent (for now) on the GFS, Parallel GFS, and the CMC for next weekend's system. Could be anything from an I-40 snowstorm special to a statewide ice storm if the cold air is in place.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 15, 2021, 01:52:26 PM
The storm track is consistent (for now) on the GFS, Parallel GFS, and the CMC for next weekend's system. Could be anything from an I-40 snowstorm special to a statewide ice storm if the cold air is in place.

could track north of us and be a paducah bowling green special too lol, hope not at least something to track :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 15, 2021, 02:35:13 PM
Had a couple nice snow showers move through I the last 20 minutes

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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2021, 02:40:51 PM
The storm track is consistent (for now) on the GFS, Parallel GFS, and the CMC for next weekend's system. Could be anything from an I-40 snowstorm special to a statewide ice storm if the cold air is in place.

The 12Z ECMWF and ICON have a very similar track, too. Models are onto something here. Looks like rain right now, but time will tell, as per usual.  :)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 15, 2021, 02:58:11 PM
More winter storm data:

MJO Phases which are only available since 1975:
Null-->22 events
Phase 8-->9 events
Phase 7--> 4 events
Phase 6-->4 events
Phase 5-->3 events
Phase 4-->6 events
Phase 3-->7 events
Phase 2-->4 events
Phase 1--> 1 events

Null is by far the best phase for a winter storm in the data.

Teleconnections:
PNA 41 negative  55 positive
EPO 59 negative  37 positive
AO 59 negative    37 positive
NAO 55 negative  41 positive

So the EPO/AO is slightly more important than the NAO/PNA

Strat warm:
Of the 96 storms analyzed, 16 took place with a strat warm or mid winter arctic warming.






Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 15, 2021, 03:38:15 PM
More winter storm data:

MJO Phases which are only available since 1975:
Null-->22 events
Phase 8-->9 events
Phase 7--> 4 events
Phase 6-->4 events
Phase 5-->3 events
Phase 4-->6 events
Phase 3-->7 events
Phase 2-->4 events
Phase 1--> 1 events

Null is by far the best phase for a winter storm in the data.

Teleconnections:
PNA 41 negative  55 positive
EPO 59 negative  37 positive
AO 59 negative    37 positive
NAO 55 negative  41 positive

So the EPO/AO is slightly more important than the NAO/PNA

Strat warm:
Of the 96 storms analyzed, 16 took place with a strat warm or mid winter arctic warming.

Dang, that is good stuff. I appreciate you putting that together. I know it took some time.  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 15, 2021, 04:18:16 PM
The 12Z ECMWF and ICON have a very similar track, too. Models are onto something here. Looks like rain right now, but time will tell, as per usual.  :)

I am with ya, looks like rain, temps seem to moderate to me? but who knows
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2021, 04:27:16 PM
I am with ya, looks like rain, temps seem to moderate to me? but who knows
really donít think no one shouldnít be suprise itís rain... till we can get some colder air into play
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 15, 2021, 04:35:27 PM
Again letís say this together donít focus on temps this far out look at the pattern and the trends. 
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on January 15, 2021, 04:54:35 PM
Pretty good snow shower in Calvert City Ky right now.


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2021, 05:00:55 PM
Pretty good snow shower in Calvert City Ky right now.


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home of my grandmother lived at. Marshall county ...nice radar returns coming in from there
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 15, 2021, 05:53:47 PM
really donít think no one shouldnít be suprise itís rain... till we can get some colder air into play

Nice triple negative !!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 15, 2021, 06:05:26 PM
Curt, you have that winter storm data in excel?
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 15, 2021, 06:17:20 PM
Temperatures crashing fast here. was 42/26 now is 37/29. Wet boobies I mean bulbing ..
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Curt on January 15, 2021, 06:39:29 PM
Curt, you have that winter storm data in excel?
Yeah Pm me and I will email it you. Itís set up to sort and filter already
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2021, 06:49:43 PM
You should have that published in your name for all your hard work, Curt.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 15, 2021, 07:31:51 PM
You should have that published in your name for all your hard work, Curt.

Curt has been laying it down. Good data man!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2021, 08:38:54 AM
overall this winter has been  frankly pretty boring and dull, congrats to those of you saw a quarter to half inch snow this year...  some on here think im trolling. lmao.... well i am going try to bring some better news maybe if eps is on to some things. not saying im falling for this yet we see... but appears it does bring down some colder air to work with plus a active southern jet to boot last week january. how long will it last not sure. looking at still a negative ao along with nao though nao not as strongly negative as it has been. finally the epo slides in the negative territory for a change... i think the big plus for us the pna, i think the pna going slightyl negative will help us acatually. i been studying the pna and if itss to strong positive which it has been its supression city folks. so keep eye on period january 24th to february 5th. this should be easily our best chance to score a significant winter sotrm for the midsouth. we will see ::coffee::if this is our last chance.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 16, 2021, 08:46:18 AM
It may be boring and dull Bruce. However, it's waaaay different from the last two. We had a brief, but heavy snow shower pass through a little while ago. I told the kids, "Come look at the snow, it might be the last we see for a week or two." I'd have never said that the last two years, but this year both feels and has been different.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 16, 2021, 09:20:32 AM
It may be boring and dull Bruce. However, it's waaaay different from the last two. We had a brief, but heavy snow shower pass through a little while ago. I told the kids, "Come look at the snow, it might be the last we see for a week or two." I'd have never said that the last two years, but this year both feels and has been different.

How dare you try and take anything positive from this Winter. You have other peoples standards to live up to here!
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 16, 2021, 10:00:57 AM
I know I live in Northeast Tennessee in the Johnson City area but actually with 10.5 inches so far we have a chance to hit close to 20 inches this winter with one more good storm like Christmas Eve. Although not bitter cold I could not tell you the last time we hit 50 for a high. The last several winters it almost seemed we never got as low as the 40ís for a high. I know our elevation usually gives us more snow with more chances but there has been no blowtorch at any point this winter. The next 15 days looks below normal overall temperature wise so the whole state may score at some point. The last week of January currently shows highs in the 30ís every day so for the extended to already show that cold is hopefully a trend


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Vols1 on January 16, 2021, 10:39:45 AM
Is there a credible threat of snow Friday with that system? James Spann seemed to thing it was possible.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 16, 2021, 11:49:07 AM
Long range looks very interesting(day 10+). Real cold funneled into the Conus. We all know how betting on the long range can play out, but I still feel pretty good about late January and early February.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 16, 2021, 03:05:56 PM
This next system sure is the perfect track for snow in NW Tennessee. The Euro and GFS are identical at the moment with cold rain. The new GFS has snow. It has been a long time since we have had these temps for this long and no snow. I canít tell you the last time it was 50 degrees here.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2021, 03:16:45 PM
This next system sure is the perfect track for snow in NW Tennessee. The Euro and GFS are identical at the moment with cold rain. The new GFS has snow. It has been a long time since we have had these temps for this long and no snow. I canít tell you the last time it was 50 degrees here.
only if we had colder air to work with...  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 16, 2021, 03:22:25 PM
only if we had colder air to work with...  ::bangingheadintowall::

I think we need warmer air.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Drifter on January 16, 2021, 03:33:29 PM
I think we need warmer air.
Lol


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Vols1 on January 16, 2021, 03:36:34 PM
Wonder with the new gfs picking up on snow if there will be colder air down this way
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2021, 03:49:34 PM
I think we need warmer air.
yeah. Wouldnít hurt... might just change our luck...
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 16, 2021, 07:22:51 PM
Ok everyone pull out those hair dryers and letís warm it up!🤷🏻‍♂️
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 16, 2021, 07:27:34 PM
Ok everyone pull out those hair dryers and letís warm it up!🤷🏻‍♂️

Lets warm em up!

(https://www.silverfernz.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/n/z/nz-possum-fur-nipple-warmers-natural.jpg)
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 16, 2021, 08:31:27 PM
Lets warm em up!

What thhhhheeee  ::wow::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 16, 2021, 10:38:12 PM
Lets warm em up!

(https://www.silverfernz.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/n/z/nz-possum-fur-nipple-warmers-natural.jpg)

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🙌🏼
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 16, 2021, 10:47:40 PM
Interesting storm on the 0z GFS. Of course it's not for us and it's over 200 hours out, but the model is showing a noreaster undergoing bombogenesis and absolutely throwing a ton of snow across the northeast.

At 213 the SLP is in south central KY at 996. 24 hours later the SLP is in prime position off of the east coast at 970. That's 26 mb within 24 hours  ::wow::

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: JHart on January 16, 2021, 10:55:31 PM
Lets warm em up!

(https://www.silverfernz.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/n/z/nz-possum-fur-nipple-warmers-natural.jpg)
Interesting that New Zealand 'possums look just like cats.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 16, 2021, 11:12:40 PM
Hope I am looking at the extended wrong but not much cold and some rounds of rain is all I see where 2 or 3 days ago it looked much colder with possibilities. That wouldnít surprise me but hopefully I donít know what Iím looking at or it was just a bad run


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 17, 2021, 10:07:55 AM
Hope I am looking at the extended wrong but not much cold and some rounds of rain is all I see where 2 or 3 days ago it looked much colder with possibilities. That wouldnít surprise me but hopefully I donít know what Iím looking at or it was just a bad run


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The models are trending the wrong way with the EPO and are trending more towards a 2019-2020 pattern with an Aleutian Island Ridge and no EPO help.  Hopefully, that is a blimp and not a trend or else the only place in North America that will have a favorable pattern will be the Pacific NW and that is it.     
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 17, 2021, 10:14:09 AM
The models are trending the wrong way with the EPO and are trending more towards a 2019-2020 pattern with an Aleutian Island Ridge and no EPO help.  Hopefully, that is a blimp and not a trend or else the only place in North America that will have a favorable pattern will be the Pacific NW and that is it.     

I am heading West soon and tbh they need the snow much more than we do. Its a treat for us but we do not count on it for anything other than personal enjoyment . AR can and looks likely to push South of 40N. So far this season Washington is taking the cheese with Baker with over 400" so far.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 17, 2021, 10:29:33 AM
Been very lucky this winter. Measured a total of 3.2" so far. Comparatively, most areas outside of southern Middle TN have done badly.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 17, 2021, 10:39:33 AM
Seasonal snowfall has been poor for most of the country. Compare this year with last year:

2020-21
[attachimg=1]

2019-20
[attachimg=2]
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 17, 2021, 10:43:25 AM
Yikes!!  It should be noted that last year was well below average for many as well.  If you compare it to a year like 2010-11 or 2013-14 (minus I-40 from Memphis to Smith County) then wow.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 17, 2021, 10:44:04 AM
Been very lucky this winter. Measured a total of 3.2" so far. Comparatively, most areas outside of southern Middle TN have done badly.

Congrats you now have more snow since December 1st than Salt Lake City, UT.   
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Flash on January 17, 2021, 12:08:13 PM
Been very lucky this winter. Measured a total of 3.2" so far. Comparatively, most areas outside of southern Middle TN have done badly.

Nice! About half that for MBY; however, I now base winters off experiential snow depth with this winter being a classic reason why. The only reason Iíd give this winter a ĎB-Ď so far is due to 5 total snow days and a decent amount of trackable systems during winterís first half. Outside of January 2018, itís been tough sledding since Jonas for many in middle TN. Also, Iím not throwing in the towel on this winter yet as I subscribe to DTís latest thinking on model confidence past 7 days. Still think Ohio and/or Tennessee Valley has a shot at something good next 2-3 weeks.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 17, 2021, 06:10:43 PM
Still looking at the period from January 23-27 for our next chance for winter weather.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Beth on January 17, 2021, 07:13:26 PM
Might see a few flurries tonight. Nice little blob of blue coming this way from the NW.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 17, 2021, 07:18:09 PM
Returns look to be headed into northwest middle tn, I will be watching.  ::popcorn::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: gcbama on January 17, 2021, 07:25:04 PM
Interesting storm on the 0z GFS. Of course it's not for us and it's over 200 hours out, but the model is showing a noreaster undergoing bombogenesis and absolutely throwing a ton of snow across the northeast.

At 213 the SLP is in south central KY at 996. 24 hours later the SLP is in prime position off of the east coast at 970. That's 26 mb within 24 hours  ::wow::

(Attachment Link)

I wouldn't want to be on martha's vineyard for that one lol
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 17, 2021, 07:53:13 PM
Those snow showers to the NW look good for those along the KY border. Where's our Clarksville Snowman?

Edit: Oh, I was too dumb to see he posted just 30 minutes ago.
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 17, 2021, 09:35:26 PM
Snowing at a moderate clip here at the moment. Pretty decent sized flakes. Edit- It's just to warm for anything to stick, it has come down real good a few times with some real big silver dollar flakes for about 5 minutes. But it's still 36 here and the radar is showing it isn't going to be around much longer. It was fun watching them big flakes fall, I want some of that for about 4-5 hours or more. We need a BIG DOG!::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 17, 2021, 11:02:43 PM
We had a very hard snow shower in Johnson City for about 5 minutes. The temperature dropped to 32 and the roads even got white it was snowing so hard. Hopefully we will get a few more of those later tonight. It looks like the long range models are trending toward last January, yuck


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Title: Re: January 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 18, 2021, 02:23:00 PM
The long range through February 3rd is looking like last year except a little cooler. The Pacific is screwing us big time it appears. How many winters in a row is that going to happen. It seems every year now it locks in out west regardless of a Greenland block or not. I think the chance of winter events is fading away when 7 days ago it looked very promising. It seems to always trend warmer and never colder. Just not sure what pattern we need to bring winter our way


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