Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Dyersburg Weather on November 23, 2020, 02:41:37 PM

Title: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 23, 2020, 02:41:37 PM
No one gonna mention the 1 to 5 inches the GFS gives the whole state ? Yall are slipping. Yall gotta get with the program.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 23, 2020, 03:38:16 PM
No one gonna mention the 1 to 5 inches the GFS gives the whole state ? Yall are slipping. Yall gotta get with the program.
I should have known someone would beat me to the punch. Itís been there for a few runs now.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 23, 2020, 03:44:12 PM
I should have known someone would beat me to the punch. Itís been there for a few runs now.

It has this really weird low near the end of the run. That old GFS boy is confused right now.

12Z CMC has a hard freeze in South Florida.... but the rest of the state is above freezing. Makes sense
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 23, 2020, 04:10:12 PM
No one gonna mention the 1 to 5 inches the GFS gives the whole state ? Yall are slipping. Yall gotta get with the program.
I wasn't going to be the first to post about it yesterday, but I was going to this time when I came to this site, but thankfully you and a few others had mentioned it. Glad to see you posting again Dyer. I have been watching closely just not posting much yet, but as we get closer hopefully there will be a reason to be on here more than the last few years. Still like the info from some on here, and love to talk winter weather. Ready to hear from Ol Drifter, I seen a post of his where he is in central Illinois this year I think. If we don't get snow maybe he will, but hopeful for our own chances before Christmas! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on November 23, 2020, 04:15:54 PM
I wasn't going to be the first to post about it yesterday, but I was going to this time when I came to this site, but thankfully you and a few others had mentioned it. Glad to see you posting again Dyer. I have been watching closely just not posting much yet, but as we get closer hopefully there will be a reason to be on here more than the last few years. Still like the info from some on here, and love to talk winter weather. Ready to hear from Ol Drifter, I seen a post of his where he is in central Illinois this year I think. If we don't get snow maybe he will, but hopeful for our own chances before Christmas! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Good to see ya Snowman. Iím in southern Indiana but Iím in a spot that probably isnít any different than northern Tn. Like Steven said I may benefit from a clipper or two that may not make it down there. Iíll probably be back next year unless something happens.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 23, 2020, 04:21:33 PM
I wasn't going to be the first to post about it yesterday, but I was going to this time when I came to this site, but thankfully you and a few others had mentioned it. Glad to see you posting again Dyer. I have been watching closely just not posting much yet, but as we get closer hopefully there will be a reason to be on here more than the last few years. Still like the info from some on here, and love to talk winter weather. Ready to hear from Ol Drifter, I seen a post of his where he is in central Illinois this year I think. If we don't get snow maybe he will, but hopeful for our own chances before Christmas! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Heck yes, I love it when the Clarksville Snowman and Drifter49 join the chat.

That's when you know it's wintertime on TennesseeWx.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on November 23, 2020, 04:30:23 PM
Heck yes, I love it when the Clarksville Snowman and Drifter49 join the chat.

That's when you know it's wintertime on TennesseeWx.
I thought it was Bruce


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 23, 2020, 04:38:13 PM
 
I thought it was Bruce


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::rofl:: That was funny! Even Bruce is gonna laugh!
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on November 23, 2020, 04:44:10 PM
  ::rofl:: That was funny! Even Bruce is gonna laugh!
Ah just talking *****. Bruce is cool.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 23, 2020, 05:25:10 PM
Ah just talking *****. Bruce is cool.


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Yep, he will be happy as a lark if it snows for sure. Are you in Illinois now?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 23, 2020, 06:05:38 PM
No one gonna mention the 1 to 5 inches the GFS gives the whole state ? Yall are slipping. Yall gotta get with the program.
Somebody needs to post the 18Z. First crazy fantasy snow map of the season.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 23, 2020, 06:19:52 PM
Somebody needs to post the 18Z. First crazy fantasy snow map of the season.
Wait til 00z so East Tn can enjoy the clown map, too


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clint on November 23, 2020, 06:26:41 PM
Somebody needs to post the 18Z. First crazy fantasy snow map of the season.
Here you go...

(https://i.imgur.com/0VL8NHT.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 23, 2020, 07:03:14 PM
Here you go...

(https://i.imgur.com/0VL8NHT.png)
can i please cash out now... lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 23, 2020, 07:09:45 PM
The pattern if modeled as is actually a fairly decent pattern to get a sneaky wet accumulating snow.  It is often how we get snow events in marginal patterns.  High Pressure in the Dakotas/Canada acts as a block while an active subtropical jet spins out upper-level lows that can make lemons out of an overall marginal air setup.

We have had several events in the South play out in that type of pattern.
- The SE TN snow last Feb
- December 2017 Deep South to Carolinas snowstorm
- December 1997 Deep South snow
- November 2011 Jackson, TN snow event   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on November 23, 2020, 09:01:43 PM
Praying this comes true! After this year I think we all could use a bit of joy!   ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on November 23, 2020, 09:46:33 PM
Yep, he will be happy as a lark if it snows for sure. Are you in Illinois now?
Iím in Indiana.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 23, 2020, 10:42:11 PM
00z GFS Clown Map is East Tn special. Woo hoo lol. Maybe somewhere in the state will get lucky in the first few days of December .
I mean its only 10 days out lol
Itís 2020.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 24, 2020, 05:46:02 AM
FWIW, both the Euro and GFS showing potential around first of the month. GFS still showing a nice clown map. Euro showing something reasonable. GFS has shown something for 6 consecutive runs. 00z Euro was first run showing anything. This could get interesting.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 24, 2020, 06:28:52 AM
FWIW, both the Euro and GFS showing potential around first of the month. GFS still showing a nice clown map. Euro showing something reasonable. GFS has shown something for 6 consecutive runs. 00z Euro was first run showing anything. This could get interesting.


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Heck yes, let's ride whatever chances we have. Probably won't snow, but who cares? This is what we live for.

We got Michael, Clarksville Snowman, Drifter, JayCee... Jump aboard! Any haters can get off the bus!  ;D
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 24, 2020, 06:33:52 AM
Heck yes, let's ride whatever chances we have. Probably won't snow, but who cares? This is what we live for.

We got Michael, Clarksville Snowman, Drifter, JayCee... Jump aboard! Any haters can get off the bus!  ;D
Since itís 2020, all models will show something good statewide every run up until a few hours out when it shows 33 degree rain for all of us on its final update before it hits


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on November 24, 2020, 06:46:04 AM
Since itís 2020, all models will show something good statewide every run up until a few hours out when it shows 33 degree rain for all of us on its final update before it hits


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Nah since itís 2020, that 33 degree rain will turn into a 29 degree two footer


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 24, 2020, 06:50:17 AM
Nah since itís 2020, that 33 degree rain will turn into a 29 degree two footer


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You may be onto something. Lol
So how long before a thread starts?


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 24, 2020, 07:01:48 AM
6 zgfs was a nice hit pretty much state wide ... more further east . Showing 2 to 8 inches . But itís still fantasy land  a bit .
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 24, 2020, 07:09:29 AM
6 zgfs was a nice hit pretty much state wide ... more further east . Showing 2 to 8 inches . But itís still fantasy land  a bit .
At this point, accumulations are moot. The fact something is consistently showing up in the region is not.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 24, 2020, 07:43:43 AM
This morning's forecast has the NAO/AO combo diving deeper into negative than yesterday's forecast, and far deeper than anything observed most of last winter as a whole.  This really could get interesting.  At the very least, it's gonna get cold.  And with the sub-tropical jet getting active with several deep troughs possible, someone in the state could really cash in the next two weeks.

If nothing else, it's nice to have some winter weather to track so early on this year.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on November 24, 2020, 08:07:30 AM
Merged all talk of our first flakage event over to December 2020 to keep the Long Range Discussion clean.

Have at it...

Frank, hit it...

I'mmmmmm dreamin' of a Whiiiiiiiite Christmasssss......
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on November 24, 2020, 08:11:22 AM
Praying this comes true! After this year I think we all could use a bit of joy!   ::snowman::

Really would be nice to have a white Christmas this year. About time for another one.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 24, 2020, 08:26:38 AM
DT with a good 20 min discussion of the upcoming pattern:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aI8UgVeP0Y&ab_channel=DTwxrisk
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 24, 2020, 08:30:45 AM
Merged all talk of our first flakage event over to December 2020 to keep the Long Range Discussion clean.

Have at it...

Frank, hit it...

I'mmmmmm dreamin' of a Whiiiiiiiite Christmasssss......

Thanks Snowdog  :)

Since I started the long range thread, you all know who to blame if this winter sucks.  ::lookaround::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Mr. Golf on November 24, 2020, 08:52:19 AM
This morning's forecast has the NAO/AO combo diving deeper into negative than yesterday's forecast, and far deeper than anything observed most of last winter as a whole.  This really could get interesting.  At the very least, it's gonna get cold.  And with the sub-tropical jet getting active with several deep troughs possible, someone in the state could really cash in the next two weeks.

If nothing else, it's nice to have some winter weather to track so early on this year.

When it's the ao/nao be cautious. I focus on the euro and or eps for teleconnections. Have a higher accuracy rating.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 24, 2020, 08:55:05 AM
Now when mr. Golf starts posting... you know something is brewing around here winter wise ...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 24, 2020, 09:52:31 AM
The AO being >6 was just unreal last winter. Oddly enough, when the AO was so strongly positive in February, I got a couple of minor winter events.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 24, 2020, 10:40:20 AM
Euro 500mb heights have a good look starting in December.  Strong ridging across northern areas in Canada with much lower heights across the southcentral and southeastern U.S., and along the East Coast.  A very good pattern for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. At this point, you can't ask for more in early December.  Well, I could ask for a lot more--like good results.  But, for now, it's at least got me watching every new model run and providing a good distraction from "other" things. 

Speaking of model runs, the 12Z GFS now has a nice hit of winter for the plateau eastward next Monday.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 24, 2020, 10:42:26 AM
The site is being a butt so I can't upload a screen capture of this, but the 12z GFS shows all of Maine is warmer than all of Florida at 12Z on December 1st. Something funky is brewing.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 24, 2020, 10:55:47 AM
Thanks to a very strong cyclone heading up east of the Apps early next week, most of KY and parts of northern TN may observe their first teens overnight Monday.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 24, 2020, 12:07:25 PM
The site is being a butt so I can't upload a screen capture of this, but the 12z GFS shows all of Maine is warmer than all of Florida at 12Z on December 1st. Something funky is brewing.

I did some housekeeping on forum attachments to free up some space. Unfortunately, the allocation for uploading attachments is only like 120 MB (there may be room to configure that upward- that's just what it currently is, and I don't want to presume upon the generosity of those hosting this site). A few hi-res images uploaded eat that up real fast. So, admins have to baby sit the current attachment threshold to keep available space. I think attachments can be auto-deleted after an amount of time. But, what I do is sort attachments by size, biggest to smallest and delete some of the bigger ones (more bang for the buck to free up space).

I got it down to something like 35MB free now. To all who use that feature here, try to be conscious on image file size when uploading attachments to make it go further. If something doesn't need to be real high resolution, consider saving in lower res so our attachment directory can go further.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 24, 2020, 12:43:37 PM
12z euro is very problematic for a big severe outbreak for parts southeast  144 hours out especially southeast of here
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 24, 2020, 12:56:58 PM
Temps start to crash Monday behind the front ...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 24, 2020, 01:06:21 PM
It's worth mentioning the 10-day Euro has snow accumulation for the entire state of Tennessee next week. It has minor accumulations for Middle and East Tennessee from Nov. 30-Dec 1 and then a separate system comes in to cover West Tennessee at the end of the week.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on November 24, 2020, 02:06:54 PM
My whole last half the of this year has been rough. Hubís stroke, but back at work now, my brother has throat cancer, we are quarantining right now too, and today my dog is sick.  So I mean I REALLY NEED SOME SNOW!!!!  Lol! ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 24, 2020, 03:10:34 PM
East TN will take the 00Z GFS, please and thank you.

I know, I know, it's the long-range GFS, but still, clown maps are better than nothing this time of year.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 24, 2020, 03:53:07 PM
My whole last half the of this year has been rough. Hubís stroke, but back at work now, my brother has throat cancer, we are quarantining right now too, and today my dog is sick.  So I mean I REALLY NEED SOME SNOW!!!!  Lol! ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Agree wholeheartedly.  Even if it doesn't stick, just watching it fall from the sky for a few hours Monday would lift the spirit. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 24, 2020, 08:11:02 PM
A few hours of snow falling would be nice. Even though I still expect a solidly warmer than average winter I do think we will still have a 2-4 week solid winter period sometime between Christmas and Early February similar to 1998-99 and 2017-18, so anything we can squeak in during the first 10 or so days of December would be a bonus in addition to that period.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 25, 2020, 05:58:22 AM
So we could possibly see 2 Snows in 3 days? Or zero. But, I believe some of us will see flakes flying between the 30th and 2nd.  6-7 days out though. In 2020 years, thatís like 6-7 years


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 25, 2020, 08:36:21 AM
Today's Euro run will be interesting.  I think it's on to something considering the phased structure of the storm and the strength of the trough developing over the Ohio Valley.  The GFS is doing what it does best, finding a storm then losing it again.  The main thing to note is the strength of the trough both the Euro and GFS shows over the eastern U.S. by early next week.  The latest run of the GFS seems to show multiple lows, and not really strengthening any of them to the point the Euro has with one main storm.

In any event, it will feel every bit like winter next week--very cold with strong northwest winds blowing for nearly two days.  Better nail those Christmas decorations down good this weekend.  They might end up on the neighbor's house if you don't.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 25, 2020, 08:44:47 AM
Winter is coming! All the warm weather wishcasters can jump ship!

 ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 25, 2020, 10:08:25 AM
Winter is coming! All the warm weather wishcasters can jump ship!

 ::snowman::
they will b able to jump back on by mid late January .. lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 25, 2020, 10:13:18 AM
they will b able to jump back on by mid late January .. lol
You should change your name to Negative Nancy. Youíre the most negative, anti-winter person on here.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 25, 2020, 10:37:43 AM
You should change your name to Negative Nancy. Youíre the most negative, anti-winter person on here.


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come on mike... not negative bro.. im a realistic type guy ...lol I like winters storms probably better than you do
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 25, 2020, 10:39:48 AM
Drop the shtick, Bruce. It's getting stale at this point. Nothing wrong with liking severe weather, but probably zero of us on this site besides yourself want severe weather and a warm winter compared with a snowy winter. You're just being a contrarian by now.

Going to be warm by January? Probably, but back it up with evidence.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 25, 2020, 10:57:37 AM
Drop the shtick, Bruce. It's getting stale at this point. Nothing wrong with liking severe weather, but probably zero of us on this site besides yourself want severe weather and a warm winter compared with a snowy winter. You're just being a contrarian by now.

Going to be warm by January? Probably, but back it up with evidence.
i didnít know we had a cheap comedian on the forum ... nicely done.  Now back to the weather , sorry 😐
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Matthew on November 25, 2020, 10:58:35 AM
I believe trying to predict any season these days is fun but is like trying to win the lottery.  I saw a snow map yesterday that shows the US has more snow cover not seen this early since 2012.  Donít be surprised if we have a brutal winter.  It is 2020 and 2021 is probably going to be just as wild. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 25, 2020, 11:03:07 AM
All I can say is bring on the cold and snow, whatever falls will bring on the Christmas Spirit a little stronger! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 25, 2020, 11:08:25 AM
I believe trying to predict any season these days is fun but is like trying to win the lottery.  I saw a snow map yesterday that shows the US has more snow cover not seen this early since 2012.  Donít be surprised if we have a brutal winter.  It is 2020 and 2021 is probably going to be just as wild.

It would be one heck of a win if we could score a cooler than normal winter (compared with 1981-2010 normals).

I saw that too, but keep in mind that is not referencing current snowcover, rather total accumulated snowfall so far this season. Still, we have had some very interesting events this year, like the September 8th Summer Snowstorm in Colorado & Wyoming and the Texas & Oklahoma Icestorm before Halloween. I'd like to know the frequency of those events.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 25, 2020, 11:09:29 AM
i didnít know we had a cheap comedian on the forum

I've been here for almost four years now.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 25, 2020, 11:30:30 AM
12z GFS giving Bruce the finger


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 25, 2020, 12:25:16 PM
12z GFS giving Bruce the finger
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The Canadian really dumps the snow on us in the Middle T. I know the ratios are probably higher than they should be, but still.

Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 25, 2020, 12:42:56 PM
The Canadian really dumps the snow on us in the Middle T. I know the ratios are probably higher than they should be, but still.

Euro following suit  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 25, 2020, 12:45:27 PM
Euro brings snow to much of the state. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 25, 2020, 12:55:13 PM


Going to be warm by January? Probably, but back it up with evidence.

I think he was just being sarcastic since past few winters have really stunk for us :) But i am keeping my fingers crossed ....nobody knows what will truly happen more than a week out.....i seem to remember the climate prediction for late nov and early dec to be well above average and that is not going to be the case next week for sure....we just never know, Lady luck may smile on us this year :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 25, 2020, 01:30:05 PM
From the models being somewhat consistent, I'd say everyone will see snow flying at some point early next week.  The current track of the storm just along the Apps would put the emphasis on accumulations in the mid-state into Kentucky and on the plateau, but with a decent coating to a few inches also possible in the eastern central and northern valley due to an abundance of wrap around moisture.  Of course, the mountains get much more.  It's somewhat early for such a strong winter cyclone here, but the pattern supports it, and the models keep showing a similar evolution run to run.  It's just a matter of nailing the specifics down now.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 25, 2020, 01:52:21 PM
From the models being somewhat consistent, I'd say everyone will see snow flying at some point early next week.  The current track of the storm just along the Apps would put the emphasis on accumulations in the mid-state into Kentucky and on the plateau, but with a decent coating to a few inches also possible in the eastern central and northern valley due to an abundance of wrap around moisture.  Of course, the mountains get much more.  It's somewhat early for such a strong winter cyclone here, but the pattern supports it, and the models keep showing a similar evolution run to run.  It's just a matter of nailing the specifics down now.

The track of the low on the Euro is pretty much the exact same track that the fictional low on my fiction story I will work on next year takes.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 25, 2020, 02:15:10 PM
The track of the low on the Euro is pretty much the exact same track that the fictional low on my fiction story I will work on next year takes.

Let's hope this doesn't end up being fiction like many in the past. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 25, 2020, 03:33:09 PM
MRX is typing...

Quote
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

A system will move through during the Sunday through Wendesday
timeframe that may produce snow across portions of the area. The
highest confidence for snow is across the higher terrain areas.
Snow across valley locations is highly uncertain at this time but
it is at least worth mentioning and something we will be watching
closely.

All aboard the SNOW TRAIN!!! WOOT WOOT  ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 25, 2020, 03:51:38 PM
MRX is typing...

All aboard the SNOW TRAIN!!! WOOT WOOT  ::snowman:: ::snowman::
If MRX is mentioning it 5ish days out, you better go buy your milk, bread n eggs


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 25, 2020, 03:59:29 PM
Lengthy discussion on Sunday-Wednesday from MRX:

Quote
  .LONG TERM......(Thursday night through Wednesday)...

Main focus of the long term is on the system for next week.

Thanksgiving night should be pleasant. The cold front will be well
to our east with drier air firmly in place. Overnight lows will fall
into the lower 40s for most places. Zonal flow in place on Friday as
we are caught in between the southern and northern jet. Friday
should be pleasant as well with plenty of sun and temps in the low
to mid 60s. Two systems approach our area, one to the north and one
to the south, Friday evening through Saturday morning. It looks like
the only affects we will see will be an increase in cloud cover as.
However, do have a very small area of slight chance POPs in place
right along the TN/GA state line but even these areas will most
likely stay dry. Saturday is our last nice day before a very
interesting system begins to move in later on Sunday. Saturday
should feature plenty of sun with mild temps in the upper 50s to low
60s.

Now for what you`ve been waiting for. The Sunday through Wednesday
system is very interesting as there is a lot going on. I hate to
disappoint but I will go ahead and say that this forecast is highly
uncertain due to the timing, evolution, and track. So I guess you
can say the certainty lies in the uncertainty, as least for now. The
general theme with this system looks like we will see rain on the
front-end due to strong southerly flow, colder air on the backside,
and then rain transitioning to snow across the higher terrain and
possibly some valley locations with whatever precip is leftover.

The GFS and ECMWF continue to handle this system quite differently.
most of the features are the same it`s just how the models handle
them. The main difference is that the ECMWF rapidly intensifies the
low as the northern and southern streams phase together. This rapid
intensification would promote colder air and higher QPF. The phasing
with the GFS isn`t quite as in sync as it is with the ECMWF. This
means you have less QPF and not as big a push of cold air. Both
models generally show the system exiting sometime on Wednesday.

For a few more details, a cutoff low will be moving across the
central Plains on Sunday. This feature will be picked up and ushered
along by a trough that is dropping down out of Canada. Rain looks to
spread into the region from south to north on Sunday. Cross mountain
flow ahead of this system at 850 mb could result in a low-end
mountain wave event Sunday night into Monday morning with 850 mb
winds around 40 kts. The bulk of the QPF occurs late Sunday through
Monday morning. A cold front will then pass through sometime on
Monday and cold air will quickly move into the region. Rain will
first change over to snow across the high terrain then across some
valley locations. All areas should be cold enough to see some snow
Monday night. On Tuesday, wrap around moisture moves into the region
on the back side of the low. Snow to start areawide Tuesday morning
but then transitioning back to rain by late morning/early afternoon
for most valley locations. The higher elevations, along with
portions of the northern plateau, northeast TN, and southwest VA
could remain all snow through the day on Tuesday. Any lingering
moisture changes back to all snow Tuesday night for all areas. This
system finally begins to lift out of the area by late Wednesday
afternoon. Event total rainfall ranges from 0.5 inches to 1.25
inches before the frontal passage on Monday.

So in closing, confidence is quite high that the higher terrain
areas will see snow during this event; how much is still to be
determined. The valley is much more uncertain as was mentioned
earlier. I will say that if recent runs of the ECMWF are correct
that there is a very good chance that most valley locations will see
some snow and perhaps even some light accumulations. However, there
are just too many uncertainties at this point to get any more
specific with the forecast. Bottom line, please stay tuned to the
forecast because this system has the potential to bring snow across
much of the area but the uncertainty is very high across the lower
elevations.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 25, 2020, 06:07:37 PM
Quote
Snow to start areawide Tuesday morning
but then transitioning back to rain by late morning/early afternoon
for most valley locations.

I've seen MRX make this call many times before, but I've never seen snow change back to rain with this dynamic of a system.  The upper levels will certainly be no problem. Everything will fall as snow.  The Euro shows most of the central and northern valley at or below freezing all day Tuesday.  So, saying the snow will change back to rain makes zero sense.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 25, 2020, 07:15:31 PM
I've seen MRX make this call many times before, but I've never seen snow change back to rain with this dynamic of a system.  The upper levels will certainly be no problem. Everything will fall as snow.  The Euro shows most of the central and northern valley at or below freezing all day Tuesday.  So, saying the snow will change back to rain makes zero sense.
Same. The data says boundary layers will go slightly above freezing during the day. During active precip this nearly never happens as long as we have sufficient CAA. Looks like a decent early season event to me, even at KCHA.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 26, 2020, 06:25:16 AM
CMC really bombs the second system for west Tennessee. The potential is there if a phase can occur at the right time.
Title: December 2020
Post by: Curt on November 26, 2020, 10:07:29 AM
The euro and gfs are the perfect track for winter precip in west TN..except itís not cold enough at the surface. It would have to generate its own cold air which isnít looking that likely. Back side flurries and snow showers might be a better bet. This is going to be good for Indiana and Ohio. If this were January or February it would be a different story perhaps. The euro is trending the same direction - it at least the 0z did. The early morning euro control looks more like cold rain is a good bet over this way.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on November 26, 2020, 10:12:41 AM
By the way the euro control 6zís next system looks similar except it will have more cold air to work with- bowling ball look coming across the southern plains trying to phase with another gulf low. Keep a watch out. Gobble gobble.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 26, 2020, 10:47:36 AM
12Z GFS shows a quick hit of snow for eastern areas as the system departs Monday night and Tuesday with backside snow showers to follow.  Even so, the bulk of accumulating snow stays north of us.  Northern KY, eastern Indiana, and Ohio are the sweet spots per this run of the GFS.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 26, 2020, 10:51:26 AM
If we can keep lower-heights in general near the Aleutian Islands for a large part of this winter then we will continue to have our chances. 

Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 26, 2020, 11:05:33 AM
Merry Thanksgiving from the CMC.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 26, 2020, 11:09:26 AM
The CMC is the only one not sending all of this north. The other globals have backed out of the Mid-State for Nov 30- Dec 1
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 26, 2020, 11:25:57 AM
The CMC is the only one not sending all of this north. The other globals have backed out of the Mid-State for Nov 30- Dec 1
Agree. The map I posted was for Dec3-5. As Curt mentioned the second system has cold air to work with.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 26, 2020, 12:10:30 PM
Agree. The map I posted was for Dec3-5. As Curt mentioned the second system has cold air to work with.

The CMC could be accounting for the cold squeezing out the moisture on the backside. Still very probable as this event is 4 days away, and we all know how fickle the model runs are.

I think everyone except for the highest elevations can pass on expecting snow from the initial band of precipitation, but the deformation band of this storm is still in play. However, it looks less likely for the western 2/3rds of the state.

As you mentioned in your post, @Dyersburg Weather, there could be another winter storm by the end of the first week of December- if it's cold enough. The Canadian is really bullish on cold, and it along with that strange GFS-Para are the only models with that storm. But that's 8 days away.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 26, 2020, 12:39:55 PM
Merry Thanksgiving from the CMC.

(Attachment Link)

10 days out, not biting,,,sure is a pretty map though :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 26, 2020, 01:11:09 PM
10 days out, not biting,,,sure is a pretty map though :)
10 days plus cmc... lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 26, 2020, 01:30:10 PM
The real winners are those north of I-64 and east of I-65 with the backside snow.  Since the low retrogrades, it will keep snow showers in that area going for days. What a treat for places like Cincinnati, OH; Madison, IN; and Fort Wayne, IN   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on November 26, 2020, 02:18:13 PM
It's playing out exactly like I thought it would lol. Everything falls apart like clockwork on the models as the projected dates close in. I've learned  ::shrug::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 26, 2020, 02:26:18 PM
Amazing how radically the models changed over the last 48 hours--even the almighty EURO.  Once, it had heavy snow as far south as parts of TN.  Now, it's mostly near and north of the Ohio River.  But, even there amounts have backed WAY off, and are no where near what was shown by most modelling just yesterday.  Kentucky *might* see some sort of coating at this point, but even there amounts keep going down.  Tuesday once appeared to have snow falling for many of us for a good part of the day.  Now, EURO shows NADA. 

I guess for TN, anyway, this storm was a fiction.  I had a feeling in my gut, but as I do every single winter, I ignored it.   Will I ever learn?  Probably not.
 ::coffee::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 26, 2020, 03:01:13 PM
It's playing out exactly like I thought it would lol. Everything falls apart like clockwork on the models as the projected dates close in. I've learned  ::shrug::

yep, unless it's 48-60 hours away i don't give any thing a second glance when it comes to winter
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on November 26, 2020, 03:29:58 PM
yep, unless it's 48-60 hours away i don't give any thing a second glance when it comes to winter
More likely- donít trust a model showing more than snow shower accumulating snow when youíre not in the northwest side of the LP in the deformation zone/ probably more than 9 out of 10 times .Those ďbackwashĒ snows after the Low pressure passes usually donít work out with a gulf low.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 26, 2020, 04:08:11 PM
Hopefully still a good event for those of you up on the Plateau. Crockett, you there? You may see an inch or two.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on November 26, 2020, 04:45:09 PM
Maybe we will see a passing flurry!  I would love to have more but just seeing a few flakes would be okay!
Happy Thanksgiving to all my friends here! 🦃🦃🦃
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 26, 2020, 04:51:48 PM
Maybe we will see a passing flurry!  I would love to have more but just seeing a few flakes would be okay!
Happy Thanksgiving to all my friends here! 🦃🦃🦃

I do think we'll see some flakes flying.

Snow accumulation or none, I'm greeting this pattern change with open arms. The AO is going negative at the end of the month. We haven't had a -AO in the winter months in a long time now. I'm ready for it to feel like Christmas.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 26, 2020, 05:08:21 PM
Best teleconnections to get snow ⛄️ in our area is negative nao and negative ao.  Pna negative also... positive pna leads us to only cold dry suppressed pattern.  Sure someone argue with me on this.  I learned this from experience.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 26, 2020, 06:30:17 PM
The mesoscale models, namely the NAM and RGEM, are up next for this storm to be in range. They go out to 84 hours. I don't really trust them beyond 60, but it'll be interesting to see what they have in store for us nonetheless.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on November 26, 2020, 07:10:27 PM
Not gonna lie, Bruce. I hadn't heard that line before and it's going in my insult book.

Back on subject, early model predictions are once again friend-zoning us as the date gets closer. We never learn.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clay on November 26, 2020, 08:08:35 PM
Please keep things civil, y'all.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 26, 2020, 08:31:29 PM
Hey, for once, some stuff went down and it wasn't Wienerschnitzel causing any trouble.  ::lookaround::

Wish I could have seen Bruce bite back, but you were quick to whack his retort.

Back to the perpetual tease that is winter in Tennessee:

00z NAM is fixin' to come out the gates. We'll see what she says.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 26, 2020, 08:42:14 PM
Hey, for once, some stuff went down and it wasn't Wienerschnitzel causing any trouble.  ::lookaround::

Wish I could have seen Bruce bite back, but you were quick to whack his retort.

Back to the perpetual tease that is winter in Tennessee:

00z NAM is fixin' to come out the gates. We'll see what she says.

(https://41.media.tumblr.com/3eb0516ee1b9afaae7f8a5f3ea6ea2d9/tumblr_nlqhneneHL1rkf4k0o1_1280.jpg)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clay on November 26, 2020, 09:14:45 PM
Especially low forecast skill with the slow movement of that 4 corners low. I'm sure numerical models have another 2 days to iron out a reasonable solution.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 26, 2020, 09:25:34 PM
0Z NAM says we're still in the game. No reason to back out of this just yet.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 26, 2020, 10:06:05 PM
Preliminary forecast:

West of TN River: Flurries, no accumulation
Middle Tennessee, South of 40: Snow Showers, no accumulation
Middle Tennessee, North of 40: Trace to 0.5"
Lower Cumberland Plateau (South of 40): Dusting to 1"
Upper Cumberland Plateau (North of 40): 1-3"
East TN River Valley: Flurries south, snow showers north. Possible accumulation north, no accumulation south.
Smokies/Appalachian Mtns (around 2,000 ft elev.): 1-3"
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on November 26, 2020, 11:55:16 PM
Preliminary forecast:

West of TN River: Flurries, no accumulation
Middle Tennessee, South of 40: Snow Showers, no accumulation
Middle Tennessee, North of 40: Trace to 0.5"
Lower Cumberland Plateau (South of 40): Dusting to 1"
Upper Cumberland Plateau (North of 40): 1-3"
East TN River Valley: Flurries south, snow showers north. Possible accumulation north, no accumulation south.
Smokies/Appalachian Mtns (around 2,000 ft elev.): 1-3"

Seems reasonable and quite plausible.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 27, 2020, 01:58:00 AM
The 0z euro absolutely crushes the western part of Arkansas with the second system later next week . Nearly two feet snow in places . Lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 27, 2020, 06:33:31 AM
Preliminary forecast:

West of TN River: Flurries, no accumulation
Middle Tennessee, South of 40: Snow Showers, no accumulation
Middle Tennessee, North of 40: Trace to 0.5"
Lower Cumberland Plateau (South of 40): Dusting to 1"
Upper Cumberland Plateau (North of 40): 1-3"
East TN River Valley: Flurries south, snow showers north. Possible accumulation north, no accumulation south.
Smokies/Appalachian Mtns (around 2,000 ft elev.): 1-3"
Iím in the Northern East TN Valley. Weíll see flurries/snow showers off and on, but zero accumulation. Upslope sides of Plateau and Mtns typically get the accumulations from this type of setup. Above 2000 ft is a good assumption. Wouldnít surprise me that above 4000 ft see 3Ē+.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 27, 2020, 06:43:42 AM
This will be an elevation-based event. Unfortunately, for those of you in the East TN River Valley, this is the kind of storm that screws you.

I do expect the Cumberland Plateau will do quite well from this event, relatively speaking. The Highland Rim region of Middle Tennessee, particularly area code 931 and North of 40, may also see some accumulation. I'm situated on the Rim and I think this will be one of those systems with flurries in the urbanized basin of Nashville while my home gets a dusting
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 27, 2020, 07:54:49 AM
My area can do a little better than Knoxville in these types of events, being just north of the highest peaks of the Smokies, but it depends on the wind trajectory.  Due north or northwest winds tend to help trap and "back up" any moisture in the foothills, and snow showers result--sometimes with the sun still out in Knoxville.  However, MRX stated yesterday that this won't be "the best" upslope event due to winds being more westerly, so a coating of crystals on the fallen leaves may be all I'll see. 

Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 27, 2020, 08:12:48 AM
To add to what Jaycee said the winds being more west to west-northwest not only will kinda hurt the upslope areas but those westward winds will also bring in drier air and tend to limit moisture on the backside of the system.  That is also why the snow amounts on models are likely quite a bit overdue even in IN/OH (outside of perhaps some lake-enhanced action). 

The Northern Plateau could still do well (a solid advisory perhaps knocking on the door of a warning level event) since it has a bit of a more N-S orientation versus say the foothills of the Smoky Mountains.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 27, 2020, 09:27:40 AM
Iím in the Northern East Tn Valley. These types of events yield nothing more than scattered flurries with an occasional ďflizzardĒ. Nothing but rooftop and side of road accumulations, if that. Nowhere even near a dusting. Iím focused on the 2nd system. Will be interesting to see what 12z runs show for it today. 


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Susan on November 27, 2020, 09:34:52 AM
Snow?  ::shrug::  But it is going to turn cold for a while, better get those outdoor decorations up this weekend.  If not, you'll regret it.

Hope every one had a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 27, 2020, 09:40:09 AM
The wind will probably be the most impactful event with the first storm.  The intensifying low will have strong gradient winds we'll all experience, and a mountain wave event could also result from the strong southeast low-level jet over the Smokies as the low travels up the plateau.  The mountains and foothills will likely observe damaging wind gusts at some point.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 28, 2020, 07:32:42 AM
The models are trending to more progressive and less phased situation and are starting to recognize the drying effect or those nearly due west winds. 

Now even most of Indiana is probably out of the game due to those westward winds and a faster/more progressive system. It looks like the GFS may actually be ready to take a model victory this time.   

With that still said 1-3 inches of snow is still a good bet for the Plateau especially from Bledsoe/Van Buren Counties and points north.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 28, 2020, 08:23:42 AM
Plateau is definitely going to witness a nice little event. I think 1-3" across that region is probable, with localized amounts of 4" possible.

Outside of the higher elevations, probably snow showers and maybe a quick dusting from a heavier band or two.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on November 28, 2020, 09:45:40 AM
I live in Johnson City at around 1,900 feet and we usually get 1-2 inches out of these type events. It shows the high temperature here Tuesday at 31 with a low Monday night at 24 and down to 19 Tuesday night. It will be cold enough to stick especially at night. Time will tell


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 28, 2020, 10:28:55 AM
3k NAM is probably amplifying the totals, as it commonly does between 50-60 hours, but it'a showing a nice little event for those of us in the lower elevations of Middle Tennessee, and even in some parts west of the TN River.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 28, 2020, 11:07:09 AM
I think Plateau and East Tn would like to take 12z Canadian for next 7 days projection . Itís the Canadian...so you know itís not happening lol.

Mon/Tues is definitely an elevation event, NW facing slopes. Northern Plateau could see 1-3Ē and Smokies above 3000 ft could see 2-4Ē, with 4Ē+ in highest peaks.

The rest of us in Middle/East Tn...scattered flurries.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 28, 2020, 11:54:41 AM
Early next week will be a shock to the system after so many mild days in the 60's.  Monday will be an interesting weather day, whether or not we see snow, with winds gusting to 35 mph and temps dropping through the day into the 20's after nightfall.  After Monday, a big chunk of TN will not break 50F.  Welcome to winter (at least for now).
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 28, 2020, 01:11:27 PM
It would be a nice Christmas present if the GFS ensembles are correct and we have a -EPO.

That would go a long way in at least ensuring that we don't torch and if the EPO block is tall enough it may disrupt the Polar Vortex but that may or may not be asking for too much at this point. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 28, 2020, 03:34:25 PM
(https://www.weather.gov/images//mrx/graphicast/image9.png?32890ab4bf1645d04ba9689239bd9db2)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 28, 2020, 04:08:20 PM
Look at you, NAM showing 5-8 inches of snow from Robertson/Sumner Counties into Central Kentucky.   

You are trying to get brownie points from snow weenies aren't ya. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on November 28, 2020, 04:28:55 PM
Nashville snowdome holding strong.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020112818/nam3km_asnow_seus_61.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on November 28, 2020, 06:50:56 PM
(https://www.weather.gov/images//mrx/graphicast/image9.png?32890ab4bf1645d04ba9689239bd9db2)
Got me right on the 0.5Ē-1Ē line in northeast Hamblen Co. woo hoo. Lol


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on November 28, 2020, 06:55:00 PM
Looking forward to seeing some flakes dancing in the skies and feeling that bite in the wind while walking the dog. Love some winter.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on November 28, 2020, 07:02:20 PM
Looks like Johnson City is definitely in the 1 inch area. We typically get 1-2 inches out of these type events because of our elevation and proximity to some high mountain tops to our east and southeast. Once in a while we get even 3-4 inches but that will not happen with this event


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 28, 2020, 07:02:49 PM
our luck this will be the last gulf low type system we get until temps warm back up lol.....Sure would love to see this amount of moisture with cold air in place, it's been a long time  :) maybe it will happen this season!
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 28, 2020, 07:51:08 PM
Nashville snowdome holding strong.

Probably UHI effect if I had to guess.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 28, 2020, 09:35:58 PM
Some of the hills in Gatlinburg should see 1-3" of snowfall. Higher terrain above 5000ft should do quite well. Some good hikes to be had early week. I am back in TN, would be fun. Get off your butts and go see the snow. Sugarland visitor center will reopen once roads are clear.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2020, 06:13:42 AM
It's been a while since we've had a pattern favorable to snow in the Tennessee Valley. Against all odds, it looks as if December could finish below normal. Of course, I don't want to speak too soon.... BUT, it's evident it's going to be much more seasonal for now rather than a torch.

-AO, +PNA during a NiŮa winter. Was 2010 the last time this happened?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 29, 2020, 07:18:21 AM
It's been a while since we've had a pattern favorable to snow in the Tennessee Valley. Against all odds, it looks as if December could finish below normal. Of course, I don't want to speak too soon.... BUT, it's evident it's going to be much more seasonal for now rather than a torch.

-AO, +PNA during a NiŮa winter. Was 2010 the last time this happened?
the positive pna will drive the sub tropical jet down towards the gulf coast if it gets to strong ... suppression leads to depression ... remember that .
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2020, 07:35:35 AM
the positive pna will drive the sub tropical jet down towards the gulf coast if it gets to strong ... suppression leads to depression ... remember that .

[attachimg=1]

Yep, it very well could, and here's some proof of that in this image.

However we have a better chance at clippers with this setup which is nice
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on November 29, 2020, 07:46:21 AM
(Attachment Link)

Yep, it very well could, and here's some proof of that in this image.

However we have a better chance at clippers with this setup which is nice

I'll take several weak clippers across a season over a single gulf low.  Quantity >>>>> quality.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on November 29, 2020, 07:54:24 AM
I had a free 2 night stay in Gatlinburg at a resort lined up starting today that I had to cancel due to on-going Covid/Flu symptoms. I am pretty disappointed considering the likely chances of snow.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 29, 2020, 08:01:23 AM
I'll take several weak clippers across a season over a single gulf low.  Quantity >>>>> quality.

Yep- and odds are one of those bad boys will overperform.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 29, 2020, 08:03:35 AM
The arctic is over 20 degrees above normal.

While I like clippers with the lack of true arctic air being a major problem through at least the end of the month if not the entire winter even with clippers we may have to deal with annoying rain/snow or rain/snow/sleet mixes. 

Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 29, 2020, 08:04:22 AM
I'll take several weak clippers across a season over a single gulf low.  Quantity >>>>> quality.
i canít even remember last time a clipper produced for us. Particular western half of Tennessee.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 29, 2020, 08:06:47 AM
The arctic is over 20 degrees above normal.

While I like clippers with the lack of true arctic air being a major problem through at least the end of the month if not the entire winter even with clippers we may have to deal with annoying rain/snow or rain/snow/sleet mixes.
yeah I read that this morning ... some 20 25 above normal temps up there... that canít be good want true artic air come south... thatís were it all starts
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2020, 08:14:24 AM
The arctic is over 20 degrees above normal.

While I like clippers with the lack of true arctic air being a major problem through at least the end of the month if not the entire winter even with clippers we may have to deal with annoying rain/snow or rain/snow/sleet mixes.

Yep. The arctic torching is so commonplace these days.

A town along the coast of the Arctic Sea in Siberia reached 100 degrees in June. That's within the Arctic Circle. The world's supply of cold air will continue to diminish as sea ice melts. (Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/arctic-temperature-record-100-4-degrees-earth-warmest-12000-years/)



This doesn't mean we'll never have any cold winters, but the odds of having a cold winter is increasingly rare, and along with that, snowfall. You can see that in the data of annual snowfall for OHX which I posted in the Long Range thread.

We live in warmer times. Winter is only going to become more difficult to witness at this latitude. This isn't a doom-and-gloom post, this is just the reality.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2020, 08:15:59 AM
Looks like a good day for a little drive tomorrow afternoon to find an elevation where the snow starts.  I avoid the main drag of Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg at all costs, but the Cosby Campground area near me is perfect, as it gradually increases in elevation to 2,500ft near the campground parking.  And it's not nearly as overrun with tourists.  They don't have shopping centers and go-carts, so it's rather boring for those uninterested in a natural environment.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2020, 08:28:16 AM
Part of why I am so optimistic about winter events at the present time is that the time I live in now may be considered a snowy period for this region by the time I'm old. I'd rather cherish what I have then reflect on what used to happen in the 20th century that we don't see anymore.

Some 21st Century heat records for Nashville:
2007: 34 consecutive days at 90 F or higher (July 26-August 28)
2007: Most 100 degree days ever recorded in 1 month (August)
2011: Earliest 90F reading (April 9)
2012: All time record high on June 30 (109F)
2016: Latest 90F reading (October 19)
2016-2017: Warmest winter on record, dating back to the 1880s
2019: Hottest October temperature recorded (99F, October 3)


All of these in the past 15 years.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on November 29, 2020, 10:01:09 AM
Looks like a good day for a little drive tomorrow afternoon to find an elevation where the snow starts.  I avoid the main drag of Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg at all costs, but the Cosby Campground area near me is perfect, as it gradually increases in elevation to 2,500ft near the campground parking.  And it's not nearly as overrun with tourists.  They don't have shopping centers and go-carts, so it's rather boring for those uninterested in a natural environment.
It sounds perfect to me!  I am not one to spend my time in the mountains shopping or at amusement parks.  I want to be in the mountains.  Snow or no snow. Lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2020, 10:16:22 AM
Yep. The arctic torching is so commonplace these days.

A town along the coast of the Arctic Sea in Siberia reached 100 degrees in June. That's within the Arctic Circle. The world's supply of cold air will continue to diminish as sea ice melts. (Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/arctic-temperature-record-100-4-degrees-earth-warmest-12000-years/)


The lack of summer warming has been one of the arguments used against the issue we're all well acquainted with by now.  The above normal temperatures seemed confined to the winter months. However, the record shattering warmth in the Arctic over the last 3-4 consecutive summers would seem to negate that argument. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2020, 10:42:19 AM
It sounds perfect to me!  I am not one to spend my time in the mountains shopping or at amusement parks.  I want to be in the mountains.  Snow or no snow. Lol

While I'm all for the jobs development brings, I wish we could've struck a better balance with nature on the TN side of the Smokies. What used to be a beautiful mountain valley now looks like a treeless asphalt and concrete scar running down the middle of Sevier County.  The actual mountains seem to be an afterthought now.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 29, 2020, 10:47:31 AM
I'll take several weak clippers across a season over a single gulf low.  Quantity >>>>> quality.

Different strokes i guess lol....i want one big system a year of 4-6+ inches....i couldn't care less for half inch clipper snow accumulations where you can see grass and leaves sticking through it lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 29, 2020, 11:27:04 AM
Different strokes i guess lol....i want one big system a year of 4-6+ inches....i couldn't care less for half inch clipper snow accumulations where you can see grass and leaves sticking through it lol
like they say down at the ole gym... go big or go home.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 29, 2020, 12:09:32 PM
Different strokes i guess lol....i want one big system a year of 4-6+ inches....i couldn't care less for half inch clipper snow accumulations where you can see grass and leaves sticking through it lol

Agree, dinky little snows are stupid and annoying. Need 4+
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2020, 12:12:53 PM
4 2" snows verses 1 6".   Tough call, but considering how quickly it disappears around here no matter how much we get, and the best part is watching it fall, I would take the 4 smaller snows.  IF they occur during the day, and not while I'm asleep.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 29, 2020, 01:26:41 PM
Bowling Green doesn't show that much of a decline, but you also have to take into account that Feb 2015 and them getting slammed by Winter Storm Jonas in 2016 is probably skewing it. 

You can see that warming trend and decreasing snowfall in the Salt Lake City graph.   

[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 29, 2020, 01:27:13 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 29, 2020, 02:48:48 PM
4 2" snows verses 1 6".   Tough call, but considering how quickly it disappears around here no matter how much we get, and the best part is watching it fall, I would take the 4 smaller snows.  IF they occur during the day, and not while I'm asleep.

i would agree, "IF" clippers gave me 2 inches of snow lol....but they don't so i would take a gulf system once a season that gave us a moderate heavy snow for several hours over multiple clippers any day :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Matthew on November 29, 2020, 06:29:51 PM
the positive pna will drive the sub tropical jet down towards the gulf coast if it gets to strong ... suppression leads to depression ... remember that .
Insert Debbie downer here.  You have said many times you want a +PNA lol.  Flip flop flip flop.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 30, 2020, 09:21:51 AM
GFS makes me think we may need to watch for a bit of ZR Thursday morning. Seems like the rebound to southerly flow frequently leaves a shallow cold pool in the valley for a bit.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 01, 2020, 09:10:21 AM
11Ē on Mt LeConte this morning and still snowing


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 01, 2020, 09:15:31 AM
welcome meteorology winter everyone! ::snowman::
Title: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 01, 2020, 12:41:23 PM
12z GFS...I see you. With binoculars at this point. But, Iím watching you! (Long Range)

Both Euro and GFS are so close to something this weekend. But, 4-5 days out, the potential is all we need at this point.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2020, 02:48:51 PM
Sun never made it out here today thanks to a strong northwest flow keeping the clouds locked in.  The high was 32.4, and while some snow melted from the ground, the trees are still outlined in white and my roof is even covered. Quite a treat.  It was probably the most wintry day here in two years.  Hopefully, not the last!  This has whetted my appetite for more.  ::yum::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 01, 2020, 08:06:15 PM
Interactive snowfall map from Mon/Tues event

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0LvXjEKWjFARev8ax2T2xxH7DZ8PPxDJLvbHypDNQympUILs_3lxegLHg#/4fe985838e464fb9bb980799443e01b6


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 02, 2020, 06:36:58 AM
So far December is looking rather cool. Another good cold shot coming in the long term right now. Funny how everyone was screaming torch city.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on December 02, 2020, 06:54:48 AM
Bunch of freezing fog around this morning. The trees are all white from it around the house. Dropped to 22.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 02, 2020, 07:59:58 AM
So far December is looking rather cool. Another good cold shot coming in the long term right now. Funny how everyone was screaming torch city.
everyone yelling also winter will be front loaded... cold shot long term is just that long term. fantasy land. would not suprise me if this will be the coldest air of this whole winter season were in now
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 02, 2020, 09:00:44 AM
everyone yelling also winter will be front loaded... cold shot long term is just that long term. fantasy land. would not suprise me if this will be the coldest air of this whole winter season were in now

Yea but highly doubt we see sustained days of 70+ which would be a torch
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 02, 2020, 09:08:19 AM
everyone yelling also winter will be front loaded... cold shot long term is just that long term. fantasy land. would not suprise me if this will be the coldest air of this whole winter season were in now

It's been fun watching you be wrong. You have been intensively negative for a whole month now about winter weather... for whatever reason.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JHart on December 02, 2020, 09:13:21 AM
We dropped into the teens here in the Lascassas Valley last night (18F at our house and 13F in the creek bed).  We only experienced that level of chill once last winter ... in November.

Similarities aside, my better half who has no interest in weather models but possesses an uncanny ability to forecast, says this season has a different "feel" to it than last winter.  For better or worse, I am taking that to the bank.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on December 02, 2020, 09:18:31 AM
13F in the creek bed

That's amazing... the power of radiational cooling in a low lying area.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 02, 2020, 09:23:36 AM
It's been fun watching you be wrong. You have been intensively negative for a whole month now about winter weather... for whatever reason.
now when u see me jump on the winter train, then u can better be getting ready for a good winter storm, until then, meh for what i seeing in long range. keep eye on the polar vortex
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 02, 2020, 09:42:37 AM
So far December is looking rather cool. Another good cold shot coming in the long term right now. Funny how everyone was screaming torch city.

I'll give Bastardi credit, he looks to have called it if we continue to see east based troughing.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1332817402304847876 (https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1332817402304847876)

It's predictive power beyond December, however, is moot. Of the 6, 2 were warm, 2 were cold and 2 were average.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1332818767517257730 (https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1332818767517257730)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 02, 2020, 09:48:56 AM
all right peeps lets be friendly lol...nobody knows what the season will hold in the cards for us...it's been a crapshoot the past decade and I think it will be the same this year, some cold shots and then days with average temps or temps in the 50's at times....hopefully during one of those cold shots we will have some good moisture in the air for some snow :)  But you just cannot trust long range models for winter storms....they are good at giving you an idea that something might be brewing but unless I see it within 48 hours of the event I won't put much stock in it, too many times in the past I have done that only to see it day by day totally shift track to KY or even worse SOUTH to Mississippi and Alabama lol....at least we did see some snow showers in my area Monday which was a nice little surprise :)

Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 02, 2020, 09:54:27 AM
I'll give Bastardi credit, he looks to have called it if we continue to see east based troughing.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1332817402304847876 (https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1332817402304847876)

It's predictive power beyond December, however, is moot. Of the 6, 2 were warm, 2 were cold and 2 were average.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1332818767517257730 (https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1332818767517257730)
Winter 1950-51 came in about 3 weeks. First was the Appalachian Snowstorm in November which covered the entire state followed by a smaller storm in early December. We torched until late January until the ice and snow storm of the ages hit west and middle (cold air never made it past the plateau). Temps hit -11 at Memphis and Nashville in early February. Just shows you a winter can be warm overall but with major winter storms. That year was a moderate to strong La NiŮa.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 02, 2020, 03:36:41 PM
I'd kill for a week like that of the Blizzard of '51.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: wmp600 on December 02, 2020, 03:45:38 PM
Winter 1950-51 came in about 3 weeks. First was the Appalachian Snowstorm in November which covered the entire state followed by a smaller storm in early December. We torched until late January until the ice and snow storm of the ages hit west and middle (cold air never made it past the plateau). Temps hit -11 at Memphis and Nashville in early February. Just shows you a winter can be warm overall but with major winter storms. That year was a moderate to strong La NiŮa.
The 1951 February was before I was born. But my parents said that all the water pipes in town froze. They had to go out & collect snow & melt it to have water. There were also power outages in the miserable cold. I hope I never have to live through something like that. The ice storm of 93 & the  17 below zero day in the 1980s was bad enough.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 02, 2020, 04:12:22 PM
I'd kill for a week like that of the Blizzard of '51.

I would LOVE 1963/64 new years snow, widespread 10-16 inches across the mid state :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 02, 2020, 04:17:04 PM
I'd also like to order a nice I-40 special. That way the whole state gets snow or some wintry precipitation. The last one I recall was 1/29/2010.

Hey, looks like some severe could be on the horizon along with winter weather threats this month. We could have some exciting weather coming up.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 02, 2020, 06:45:17 PM
I'd also like to order a nice I-40 special. That way the whole state gets snow or some wintry precipitation. The last one I recall was 1/29/2010.

Hey, looks like some severe could be on the horizon along with winter weather threats this month. We could have some exciting weather coming up.
yeah the aam is fixing to tank. And mjo is heading toward s more of La NiŮa pattern system around 15th bears watching
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 02, 2020, 07:18:45 PM
I'd also like to order a nice I-40 special. That way the whole state gets snow or some wintry precipitation. The last one I recall was 1/29/2010.


I much prefer a tn/al border special that way north of the tn border is in the cold air and everybody gets SNOW, i do not like ugly winter weather like sleet and ice at all lol. But yes luckily enough jan 2010 is the biggest snowfall i have had in lewis county at 9 inches
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2020, 09:50:02 PM
I'd kill for a week like that of the Blizzard of '51.
My grandparents used to tell me about that one. It was brutal, there are some great pictures from it. My grandparents showed me a few of them when I was younger. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2020, 09:54:28 PM
I would LOVE 1963/64 new years snow, widespread 10-16 inches across the mid state :)
My parents talk about that one, it was their senior year of high school and around 10 inches fell here. They said that was the most fun they had in snow as teenagers. It was a small town then, and many were going out and driving in it on New Years! LOL!
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 03, 2020, 08:18:02 AM
My parents talk about that one, it was their senior year of high school and around 10 inches fell here. They said that was the most fun they had in snow as teenagers. It was a small town then, and many were going out and driving in it on New Years! LOL!

It is an amazing accumulation map to look at pretty much the entire midstate saw at least 7 inches and west of 65 saw common 10-16 inches and on a holiday! How fun would that be :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2020, 08:39:19 AM
It is an amazing accumulation map to look at pretty much the entire midstate saw at least 7 inches and west of 65 saw common 10-16 inches and on a holiday! How fun would that be :)
o the good ole winters ... I loved hearing my great  grandmother talk bout the winters she saw . Early 1900s lol she said she remembered when the mighty Mississippi River frozen ...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Coach B on December 03, 2020, 09:01:16 AM
It is an amazing accumulation map to look at pretty much the entire midstate saw at least 7 inches and west of 65 saw common 10-16 inches and on a holiday! How fun would that be :)
Here you go:

https://www.weather.gov/images/hun/stormsurveys/newyears_1963/12311963_snow.png (https://www.weather.gov/images/hun/stormsurveys/newyears_1963/12311963_snow.png)

A bit unusual to see the north/south orientation of the snow accums. Was not good for far west and northeast TN, but the Nashville - Knoxville corridor and especially southern middle TN did fabulous. Would be a gcbama special!
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 03, 2020, 09:51:48 AM
Here you go:

https://www.weather.gov/images/hun/stormsurveys/newyears_1963/12311963_snow.png (https://www.weather.gov/images/hun/stormsurveys/newyears_1963/12311963_snow.png)

yep it is a fantastic snowmap for the midstate! I have always dreamed of Cold air being in place and a gulf low tracking east north east from Jackson MS towards Chattanooga so you get snow on the north side of the low and the heavy returns on the backside as it passes as well :)

A bit unusual to see the north/south orientation of the snow accums. Was not good for far west and northeast TN, but the Nashville - Knoxville corridor and especially southern middle TN did fabulous. Would be a gcbama special!
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 04, 2020, 07:55:24 AM
Well long term cold shot was just that, long term fantasy it seems.  The golden triangle area of MO is going to be above freezing for the next 15 days at least. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2020, 08:01:27 AM
Well long term cold shot was just that, long term fantasy it seems.  The golden triangle area of MO is going to be above freezing for the next 15 days at least.
good thing for us, puts more money in our pockets save on the heating bill for most ;)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 04, 2020, 09:31:58 AM
At least we saw a few snow flakes fly the first day of Dec. And honestly if it isnít going to snow I would rather it be sunny and warm. My 8 yr old and her friends can play outside and not drive us crazy. Lol!  :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 04, 2020, 09:47:55 AM
At least we saw a few snow flakes fly the first day of Dec. And honestly if it isnít going to snow I would rather it be sunny and warm. My 8 yr old and her friends can play outside and not drive us crazy. Lol!  :)

I am with you there, no point in being cold if it is not going to snow in my opinion :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 04, 2020, 03:22:21 PM
East Tn folks...
Mondayís system is currently right where we want it. Each model update gets slightly more promising. Weíre still ~72 hours out, give or take 6 hours. 12z Euro threw us a bone. Need NW trend on NAM and GFS. And maybe a slightly better organized Low to pull down enough cold air. Ifff, that little piece of energy dropping SE can meet up with that Low in time, we might could eek out a little something. Even the Valley.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 04, 2020, 07:03:45 PM
The longer I see the Central USA Ridge entrench itself as we go into the winter the more concerned I get about 1950s or 2012 style drought and not severe or winter weather for the Feb-Jun 2021 period.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2020, 07:16:53 AM
The longer I see the Central USA Ridge entrench itself as we go into the winter the more concerned I get about 1950s or 2012 style drought and not severe or winter weather for the Feb-Jun 2021 period.
with the steady declining pdo and the aam forecasted to start tanking, is a big red flag and disturbing signs of a violent severe season ahead starting late this winter going into spring. also with no major artic outbreaks coming down to far south this winter, the gom will be primed up early for plenty moisture coming north that will help spike dewpoints into these lake cutter systems.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2020, 08:11:44 AM
I think so, too. This coming severe season could be intense. La Nina winters typically bring a severe spring for Dixie Alley.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on December 05, 2020, 08:21:28 AM
I think so, too. This coming severe season could be intense. La Nina winters typically bring a severe spring for Dixie Alley.
Whereís the dislike button? Iíve had quite enough of that for one lifetime.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 05, 2020, 11:47:07 AM
The PNA looks to stay neutral through mid-December.  Unless something can undercut the ridging in the Western and Central USA then severe weather is not on the radar at least not yet.

Remember we just experienced a warm November in a La-Nina year with little to no severe weather to show for it.  Just because it is warm doesn't mean we get an active severe weather season.  2007 and this past November showed us that.

With that being said it is true that La-Nina's especially those that follow El-Ninos do tend to have active severe weather periods especially in the January-April timeframe.  That cannot be ignored, but it is also not a 100% guarantee that we repeat 1999, 2008, or 2011.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2020, 12:53:51 PM
East Tn folks...
Mondayís system is currently right where we want it. Each model update gets slightly more promising. Weíre still ~72 hours out, give or take 6 hours. 12z Euro threw us a bone. Need NW trend on NAM and GFS. And maybe a slightly better organized Low to pull down enough cold air. Ifff, that little piece of energy dropping SE can meet up with that Low in time, we might could eek out a little something. Even the Valley.


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Latest models have given me the finger regarding this post. Lol.
Models be like ďWhat system?Ē


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 05, 2020, 01:03:26 PM
Time for a drought after 2 really wet years. Would only make sense that Mother Nature balances her self out.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2020, 01:06:30 PM
The PNA looks to stay neutral through mid-December.  Unless something can undercut the ridging in the Western and Central USA then severe weather is not on the radar at least not yet.

Remember we just experienced a warm November in a La-Nina year with little to no severe weather to show for it.  Just because it is warm doesn't mean we get an active severe weather season.  2007 and this past November showed us that.

With that being said it is true that La-Nina's especially those that follow El-Ninos do tend to have active severe weather periods especially in the January-April timeframe.  That cannot be ignored, but it is also not a 100% guarantee that we repeat 1999, 2008, or 2011.   
not going by just because weíre going have warm winter , think u are ignoring the factors pdo going extremely negative also with the aam... those r two big time teleconnections produce severe pattern that begin later winter into spring ... now on the drought issue I do think next summer going be s very hot extremely dry period leading to drought conditions .
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2020, 01:49:19 PM
General announcement: Interested in classes taught by professional mets? Sign up on OHX's website!

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 05, 2020, 02:34:53 PM
The pattern heading into mid to late December

Alaska and the Yukon are  ::cold::

The Western and Central and Northeastern US and the rest of Canada are  ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch::

The Southeast is also  ::blowtorch:: but not quite as  ::blowtorch:: as other regions.

Overall a big pile of crap for everyone involved.  The Aleutian ridge is also back as well which adds to the steaming dumpster fire that is the upcoming pattern.

It is pretty much like taking 1999-2000, 2011-2012, and 2019-2020 hitting copy and pasting it into the rest of December.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 05, 2020, 02:36:37 PM
It is beginning to look like a Sunny and Warm Christmas for most of the US (outside of high alpine areas and Alaska) plus Southern Canada.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Coach B on December 05, 2020, 04:56:34 PM
It is beginning to look like a Sunny and Warm Christmas for most of the US (outside of high alpine areas and Alaska) plus Southern Canada.

Sounds good to me. I love a sunny and mild Christmas and New Year's. Once we get to week two of January I'll be ready for a couple of weeks of deep winter at some point before we end February.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2020, 07:13:23 PM
Potential winter events:

Dec 7-8 for far NE TN, SE KY, SW VA and the mountains

Dec 13-14. Definitely in play, but may be a cold chasing moisture scenario


The week of the 13th looks to start off well below normal and finish in a blowtorch; however, it's fantasy land, so take it with a grain of salt.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 06, 2020, 08:23:07 AM
Parts of Montana are going to be in the 60s.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 06, 2020, 08:25:55 AM
The La-Nina may cool a tenth or two tenth's of a degree but it doesn't look to go full-on Strong La-Nina.  Probably bottoming out between -1.2 and -1.4C or between 2017-18 and 1998-99/2007-08/2010-11's strength.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 06, 2020, 08:28:30 AM
Parts of Montana are going to be in the 60s.
so much for the snowpack up there, o wait. what snowpack? ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 06, 2020, 08:57:54 AM
Parts of Montana are going to be in the 60s.

Unbelievable. The continental and subpolar climates are torching.

Speaking of, 2020 will likely eclipse 2016 as the warmest year on Earth since weather records have been kept. The only consistently cold places in the world right now are Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) and over the E Pacific where La NiŮa is taking place.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 06, 2020, 09:06:08 AM
Unbelievable. The continental and subpolar climates are torching.

Speaking of, 2020 will likely eclipse 2016 as the warmest year on Earth since weather records have been kept. The only consistently cold places in the world right now are Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) and over the E Pacific where La NiŮa is taking place.
now you now why i am so jaded about winter weather, im also a realisitc person, i love winter storms just must as anyone. im affraid our winters are going in the wrong direction each year. :(
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 06, 2020, 09:41:41 AM
We may enter 2021 like we entered 2012. Hardly any snow outside the alpine regions in the contiguous U.S.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 06, 2020, 10:37:55 AM
Looks like another winter of low home heating bills.  Lookin' on the bright side. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 06, 2020, 10:49:21 AM
I do think sometime between New Years and Valentine's Day we will see a 3ish week period of winter. 

Very similar to 1998-99 and 1999-00 probably due to the La-Nina and that eventually a brief split of the PV. 

The mid to the end part of this month probably torches especially if we get our biggest enemy (High Pressure over the Aleutian Islands back) which introduces us to our other enemy which is the merged Bermuda/Sonora ridge complex like you see in a summer heatwave. The NAO/AO are up in the air but the trend is for them to potentially go moderately positive in the longer-range perhaps. We might start to see Canada and the Northern Plains trend a bit more favorable towards the end of the month but that remains to be seen. 

For now, the thing that is just killing us is our rapidly warming arctic and the increased presence of strong PV signatures.  Outside of a few elevation driven events or ULL miracles you just don't score when all the cold air is locked in Siberia.  It doesn't matter what the PNA, NAO, ENSO, or AO does if there isn't any true cold air there just isn't any true cold air.

Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 06, 2020, 10:54:51 AM
now you now why i am so jaded about winter weather, im also a realisitc person, i love winter storms just must as anyone. im affraid our winters are going in the wrong direction each year. :(

I am with ya bruce, i have become VERY jaded the past 5 seasons , i don't believe anything anymore until i see it happening on radar lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 06, 2020, 12:08:26 PM
Honestly, with current events less than desirable, a mild winter won't be a bad thing.  I don't think we need bitter cold with snow burying areas that are already distressed by other difficulties.  Further, grocery stores don't need the widespread panic and food hoarding a little snow in the south brings.  Many local stores already have supply issues of certain items, and a forecast with snow in it would add further strain to the system.  So, a warm winter is a merciful blessing for most.  I'll take it. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 06, 2020, 01:13:37 PM
Honestly, with current events less than desirable, a mild winter won't be a bad thing.  I don't think we need bitter cold with snow burying areas that are already distressed by other difficulties.  Further, grocery stores don't need the widespread panic and food hoarding a little snow in the south brings.  Many local stores already have supply issues of certain items, and a forecast with snow in it would add further strain to the system.  So, a warm winter is a merciful blessing for most.  I'll take it.

Warm weather especially over the Christmas to New Years' period and then in late Feb would move more people outdoors which can help out with another one of our 2020 problems.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 06, 2020, 01:17:56 PM
Warm weather especially over the Christmas to New Years' period and then in late Feb would move more people outdoors which can help out with another one of our 2020 problems.
exactly, thinking same... weíre planning on having a big ribeye steak on grill Christmas on back deck. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on December 06, 2020, 04:37:35 PM
Reed Timmer apparently sees a severe outbreak in the south mid-month.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 06, 2020, 04:40:29 PM
Reed Timmer apparently sees a severe outbreak in the south mid-month.
system around 15thish been showing up for a while now.  Thatís the one.  I got eye on it myself . The euro has low 60s dewpoints getting up to Kentucky Tennessee border .
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 06, 2020, 09:02:58 PM
Reed Timmer apparently sees a severe outbreak in the south mid-month.

Wake me when he DOESN'T see one.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 06, 2020, 09:43:38 PM
TN and NC currently hold the only winter weather advisory in the consus right now I believe
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 06, 2020, 10:18:21 PM
Wake me when he DOESN'T see one.
he not only one sees it... per American wx
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 07, 2020, 07:51:44 AM
I was remiss at how chilly it is going to be today. I'm glad we are getting several hard freezes in now. Low temps below freezing for Nashville are still BN at this point in met. winter, believe it or not.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 07, 2020, 10:23:33 AM
Definitely going to look for some severe weather between December 15th and 20th. Quick rise in temperatures followed by a cold front seems likely.

No, Bruce didn't hack my computer
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 07, 2020, 11:20:42 AM
Definitely going to look for some severe weather between December 15th and 20th. Quick rise in temperatures followed by a cold front seems likely.

No, Bruce didn't hack my computer

Hol' up.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/Zc74HFG3OZBLO/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 07, 2020, 11:24:01 AM
so much for the snowpack up there, o wait. what snowpack? ::blowtorch::
That is just not true Bruce. While we have a warm day, warm 60's even at elevation are not going to cause much melt in 1 day. Second almost all areas are at are over 100% snowpack with a fantastic storm cycle on the way. Instead of calling you names which you rightfully derseve these are the facts.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 07, 2020, 11:29:55 AM
That is just not true Bruce. While we have a warm day, warm 60's even at elevation are not going to cause much melt in 1 day. Second almost all areas are at are over 100% snowpack with a fantastic storm cycle on the way. Instead of calling you names which you rightfully derseve these are the facts.

Sun angle, not withstanding...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 07, 2020, 11:32:27 AM
That is just not true Bruce. While we have a warm day, warm 60's even at elevation are not going to cause much melt in 1 day. Second almost all areas are at are over 100% snowpack with a fantastic storm cycle on the way. Instead of calling you names which you rightfully derseve these are the facts.
yeah upper elevations above 7500 feet I agree with you. Iím talking mainly the flats and regular Terrian areas now ...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 07, 2020, 01:04:59 PM
There are some snowstorms on the latest runs of the global models that traverse the Upper Plains, which will definitely help build some much needed snowpack there. Temperatures appear AN to well AN in the northern U.S. and southern Canada, so we'll see how long the snowpack will last.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: nrgJeff on December 07, 2020, 01:39:37 PM
ECMWF just slowed down Saturday enough to put the warm sector from southern Middle Tennessee south. I mean, as long as we're jawboning severe...

That said it appears dynamics may outrun what little thermo we have in December. Probably Saturday will just be a watch college football day.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 07, 2020, 03:29:00 PM
Probably Saturday will just be a watch college football day.

Not if you're a Tennessee fan  ::cliff::

The only season I have left is tornado season. And the one when I desperately beg for a snowstorm for three to four months.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on December 07, 2020, 04:13:25 PM
Not if you're a Tennessee fan  ::cliff::
::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant::
I really think Nick Saban's long-term plan for sustainable winning seasons is to just infect the rest of college football with his assistant coaches so he knows how to beat the whole country. Deliberate or not, it certainly seems to be working around the SEC.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 07, 2020, 04:42:20 PM
AO and NAO are negative, EPO is positive, PNA is going slightly negative, MJO is in the null phase or forecast to move just inside Phase 5 or 6 but not strongly. Looks like lots of tugging forces to me. Until the MJO gets a "giddy up", I don't see any major torching or severe/winter...mostly seasonal with a few ups and downs.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 07, 2020, 05:27:01 PM
::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant::
I really think Nick Saban's long-term plan for sustainable winning seasons is to just infect the rest of college football with his assistant coaches so he knows how to beat the whole country. Deliberate or not, it certainly seems to be working around the SEC.
could not have said it any better... lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Matthew on December 07, 2020, 09:40:29 PM
AO and NAO are negative, EPO is positive, PNA is going slightly negative, MJO is in the null phase or forecast to move just inside Phase 5 or 6 but not strongly. Looks like lots of tugging forces to me. Until the MJO gets a "giddy up", I don't see any major torching or severe/winter...mostly seasonal with a few ups and downs.
What I see is around mostly 48-55 temps as highs after this week.  Donít see those kinda temps creating severe wx nor winter wx.  Seems close to seasonal to me.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 08, 2020, 08:18:28 AM
::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant::
I really think Nick Saban's long-term plan for sustainable winning seasons is to just infect the rest of college football with his assistant coaches so he knows how to beat the whole country. Deliberate or not, it certainly seems to be working around the SEC.

lol! that was a good one Ö.Being a Bama fan though I just cannot understand UT's futility for the past 13 years....a down stretch is one thing but this is ridiculous....UT should always be a 9-10 win team and in competition in the east division with the potential every few years of winning the SEC championship like florida and UGA Ö.this season I really thought they would win 7 which in an all sec year is a very good year but my goodness
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 08, 2020, 08:34:02 AM
lol! that was a good one Ö.Being a Bama fan though I just cannot understand UT's futility for the past 13 years....a down stretch is one thing but this is ridiculous....UT should always be a 9-10 win team and in competition in the east division with the potential every few years of winning the SEC championship like florida and UGA Ö.this season I really thought they would win 7 which in an all sec year is a very good year but my goodness

Tennessee is a dumpster fire.  I said forget watching after about game 4 this season, no fun to watch.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 08, 2020, 08:37:03 AM
Jeff, look at the mess you made  :laugh:
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 08, 2020, 08:44:18 AM
lol! that was a good one Ö.Being a Bama fan though I just cannot understand UT's futility for the past 13 years....a down stretch is one thing but this is ridiculous....UT should always be a 9-10 win team and in competition in the east division with the potential every few years of winning the SEC championship like florida and UGA Ö.this season I really thought they would win 7 which in an all sec year is a very good year but my goodness

It all started in 2008 when Hamilton and Haslem decided to fire Fulmer.  The subsequent failed coaching search landed on Dooley.  Three years of futility initiated another failed coaching search, which landed on Lyle.  Three years of adequate football but necrotic cancer in the locker room gave way to another failed coaching search which gave us Pruitt.  I'm not sure whether CJP is the answer but his mishandling of the QB position has raised yyyugggeee red flags.  He said yesterday that Bailey and Shrout will be 1A and 1B moving forward, and JG being demoted.  That's what should've happened after Georgia.  Maybe we beat Kentucky, still get shelled by Bama, beat Arkansas, beat Auburn, be a bit more competitive against Florida.  The difference between 2-6 and a possible 6-2/5-3 is tremendous.  There's some coaches on the staff that wear a ski mask when they pick up their checks.  Friend and Weinke need to GTFO.  Like on a rail.  Gone.  Ansley hasn't done squat with the DBs and Niedermeyer hasn't done squat with the LBs.  Where TF is Henry?  Where is QCrouch?  Why is Jeremy Banks guarding slot receivers?  There's coaching malpractice across the entirety of the defense.  Thankfully, this year is a "throwaway" year and all the extra playing time has helped the young guys and they'll be ready to piss vinegar when eligibility counts next year.  If not, Pruitt's out.

EDIT:  Will somebody more talented then me split off the last few football posts and toss them into the off-topic thread?  Thanks!   ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: joemomma on December 08, 2020, 09:03:23 AM
It all started in 2008 when Hamilton and Haslem decided to fire Fulmer.  The subsequent failed coaching search landed on Dooley.  Three years of futility initiated another failed coaching search, which landed on Lyle.  Three years of adequate football but necrotic cancer in the locker room gave way to another failed coaching search which gave us Pruitt.  I'm not sure whether CJP is the answer but his mishandling of the QB position has raised yyyugggeee red flags.  He said yesterday that Bailey and Shrout will be 1A and 1B moving forward, and JG being demoted.  That's what should've happened after Georgia.  Maybe we beat Kentucky, still get shelled by Bama, beat Arkansas, beat Auburn, be a bit more competitive against Florida.  The difference between 2-6 and a possible 6-2/5-3 is tremendous.  There's some coaches on the staff that wear a ski mask when they pick up their checks.  Friend and Weinke need to GTFO.  Like on a rail.  Gone.  Ansley hasn't done squat with the DBs and Niedermeyer hasn't done squat with the LBs.  Where TF is Henry?  Where is QCrouch?  Why is Jeremy Banks guarding slot receivers?  There's coaching malpractice across the entirety of the defense.  Thankfully, this year is a "throwaway" year and all the extra playing time has helped the young guys and they'll be ready to piss vinegar when eligibility counts next year.  If not, Pruitt's out.

EDIT:  Will somebody more talented then me split off the last few football posts and toss them into the off-topic thread?  Thanks!   ::bagoverhead::

Spot-on assessment. 

EDIT: Don't forget the Kiffin tomfoolery. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 08, 2020, 09:09:41 AM
Spot-on assessment. 

EDIT: Don't forget the Kiffin tomfoolery.

That's been blocked from memory.

Although, I wouldn't mind if he came back to Knoxville.  Imagine the damage he could do with the offensive weapons at his disposal now. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JHart on December 08, 2020, 09:14:27 AM
It has been a while since something like this has appeared in an  NWS discussion.  Anticipated this year but not encouraging.

000
FXUS64 KOHX 081133
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
533 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

After squeezing out some flurries on the Plateau yesterday morning,
it looks like we`re going to be dry for the rest of the workweek.
That`s unfortunate because the Drought Monitor is starting to light
up. For instance, we may be above normal for the year at BNA (~4.5
inches), but we`re already behind the 8-ball for the month of
December (almost an inch) and November ended up about 3 inches below
normal. Worse yet, our upcoming system isn`t showing much in the way
of soaking rains.
[...]
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........12
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 08, 2020, 09:38:33 AM
It all started in 2008 when Hamilton and Haslem decided to fire Fulmer.  The subsequent failed coaching search landed on Dooley.  Three years of futility initiated another failed coaching search, which landed on Lyle.  Three years of adequate football but necrotic cancer in the locker room gave way to another failed coaching search which gave us Pruitt.  I'm not sure whether CJP is the answer but his mishandling of the QB position has raised yyyugggeee red flags.  He said yesterday that Bailey and Shrout will be 1A and 1B moving forward, and JG being demoted.  That's what should've happened after Georgia.  Maybe we beat Kentucky, still get shelled by Bama, beat Arkansas, beat Auburn, be a bit more competitive against Florida.  The difference between 2-6 and a possible 6-2/5-3 is tremendous.  There's some coaches on the staff that wear a ski mask when they pick up their checks.  Friend and Weinke need to GTFO.  Like on a rail.  Gone.  Ansley hasn't done squat with the DBs and Niedermeyer hasn't done squat with the LBs.  Where TF is Henry?  Where is QCrouch?  Why is Jeremy Banks guarding slot receivers?  There's coaching malpractice across the entirety of the defense.  Thankfully, this year is a "throwaway" year and all the extra playing time has helped the young guys and they'll be ready to piss vinegar when eligibility counts next year.  If not, Pruitt's out.

EDIT:  Will somebody more talented then me split off the last few football posts and toss them into the off-topic thread?  Thanks!   ::bagoverhead::

Most of it boils down to Pruitt being so dumb that he can't manage anything that isn't within ten feet of him. The guy didn't even know what asparagus was.  ::rofl:: I mean, no matter how country you are, WHO in their flippin' 30s living in a developed country hasn't heard of asparagus?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 08, 2020, 12:24:39 PM
It has been a while since something like this has appeared in an  NWS discussion.  Anticipated this year but not encouraging.


.DISCUSSION...

After squeezing out some flurries on the Plateau yesterday morning,
it looks like we`re going to be dry for the rest of the workweek.
That`s unfortunate because the Drought Monitor is starting to light
up. For instance, we may be above normal for the year at BNA (~4.5
inches), but we`re already behind the 8-ball for the month of
December (almost an inch) and November ended up about 3 inches below
normal. Worse yet, our upcoming system isn`t showing much in the way
of soaking rains.
[...]
&&


DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........12


Unfortunately, this winter is developing a similar trend we observed in '06 that continued into '07, leading to one of the worst droughts the region has ever experienced.  Mother nature has a habit of balancing out wet periods with dry ones, and we've just experienced consecutive record breaking wet years since 2016.  Could much drier times be upon us?  ::scratch:: 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 08, 2020, 12:50:04 PM
12z Euro just smashed middle tennessee on the 15th. ::popcorn::  ::cold::::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 08, 2020, 01:06:51 PM
0z Euro just smashed middle tennessee on the 15th. ::popcorn::  ::cold::::snowman::

I did see that. Looks like the same kind of little system that we had back on the 30th, with a deformation band following the passage of a cold front and heavy rain.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 08, 2020, 01:27:43 PM
Unfortunately, this winter is developing a similar trend we observed in '06 that continued into '07, leading to one of the worst droughts the region has ever experienced.  Mother nature has a habit of balancing out wet periods with dry ones, and we've just experienced consecutive record breaking wet years since 2016.  Could much drier times be upon us?  ::scratch::

Makes sense, she always balances herself out.  About the only thing you can bet on in weather.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 08, 2020, 02:42:22 PM
12z Euro....

(https://media.giphy.com/media/iv895YWveVRTpi2h6x/giphy.gif)

12z GFS...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/xUOxfj5NYgqx0zmQik/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2020, 03:00:02 PM
12z Euro....

(https://media.giphy.com/media/iv895YWveVRTpi2h6x/giphy.gif)

12z GFS...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/xUOxfj5NYgqx0zmQik/giphy.gif)
run Derrick run ...lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 08, 2020, 03:43:03 PM
12z Euro. 

Somebody grab a rag...some paint dropped on the map. 

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on December 08, 2020, 03:45:40 PM
12z Euro. 

Somebody grab a rag...some paint dropped on the map.
Whatever spilled on that map knocked the snow dome from Nashville all the way over to Knox County, lol.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on December 08, 2020, 04:28:05 PM
12z Euro. 

Somebody grab a rag...some paint dropped on the map.

Call the loan officer, lock it in, and bring it home.  ::faint::

Congrats Sheb'vul

Too bad you don't want to be in the bullseye this far out.  ::)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 08, 2020, 04:32:34 PM
Call the loan officer, lock it in, and bring it home.  ::faint::

Congrats Sheb'vul

Too bad you don't want to be in the bullseye this far out.  ::)

I'm so glad someone else not in Shelbyville knows the local pronunciation  :laugh:  We used to live there.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 08, 2020, 04:44:25 PM
I Love Shebívul!  Some nice peeps down that way! 😘
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 08, 2020, 04:55:16 PM
12z Euro...Knoxville snow dome
Iíll take 0.3 in Morristown area this far out. Move that bullseye eastward please


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: justinmundie on December 08, 2020, 06:56:45 PM
Chiming in to remind my mid tenn folks that low pressures never run the spine of the apps. If that storm materializes like this it will either be 80 miles south or 80 miles north of the current track.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 08, 2020, 11:22:12 PM
Things seem to be trending more interesting for the 15th timeframe for the mid-state. GFS trending toward Euro a bit that run. Not near as intense as euro but a big move that direction from it's earlier runs. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 09, 2020, 12:47:27 AM
Wow!  Euro gives us a early Christmas snow!  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 09, 2020, 06:40:17 AM
Oh lawt! The Euro about to give 80% of the state an impressive snow storm! Each run getting more impressive. (Please dont yank this out from under us last minute. Still 4ish days out, lots can/will change lol)
(https://media0.giphy.com/media/14fnBD3MQslIGc/giphy.gif)


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 09, 2020, 07:03:05 AM
A 4 day out clown map...why not? It wonít happen, but nice to look at .
But, at 4 days out, youíd think some of us may have a shot at a little snow after seeing this Euro run, right? Even if it only ends up like our last snow.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201209/438301870aedb06cbadc8a7c31e486de.jpg)


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 09, 2020, 07:13:27 AM
Crazy how worlds apart the 00z Euro and 06z GFS are on something that is 4 days out. Which one starts caving to the other in next 24-48 hours? Euro seems to have been picking up steam with its solution last 3 runs. GFS has been locked on its solution for last three DAYS. The GFS is like a pissed off wife. It ainít budging .


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2020, 07:29:26 AM
A 4 day out clown map...why not? It wonít happen, but nice to look at .
But, at 4 days out, youíd think some of us may have a shot at a little snow after seeing this Euro run, right? Even if it only ends up like our last snow.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201209/438301870aedb06cbadc8a7c31e486de.jpg)


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i could remember when We get a system within 4 days out the models seem be locking on... now days canít trust them within 3 days... think modeling has gotten much worse last 10 years or so
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2020, 08:13:36 AM
i could remember when We get a system within 4 days out the models seem be locking on... now days canít trust them within 3 days... think modeling has gotten much worse last 10 years or so

ikr! years back I would be preparing for it....now it's like ho hum, lets wait another 48 hours :) Ö.but sure would be a nice surprise :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 09, 2020, 08:38:03 AM
Yes it is sad when you tell your kid, ďwe may get some snow next week, but lets wait till the day before till we get our hopes up.Ē   ;)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2020, 08:41:58 AM
The euro is notorious for over- phasing past day 4-5. The 6z euro control already lost it. Havenít looked at anything else though.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 09, 2020, 08:44:50 AM
i could remember when We get a system within 4 days out the models seem be locking on... now days canít trust them within 3 days... think modeling has gotten much worse last 10 years or so

 ::scratch::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 09, 2020, 08:51:18 AM
i could remember when We get a system within 4 days out the models seem be locking on... now days canít trust them within 3 days... think modeling has gotten much worse last 10 years or so

Sure seems that way.  I think people just expect to much from models really.  No way that storm is happening, just can't see it.  Has been a weird December, not overly warm here but really no colder in northern MO and into parts of South Dakota and North Dakota over the last several days.  That is going to change some soon. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2020, 08:55:21 AM
The euro is notorious for over- phasing past day 4-5. The 6z euro control already lost it. Havenít looked at anything else though.
yeah exactly what I was referring to... even the euro canít be trusted anymore just 4 days out. Where it used to be in its wheelhouse at 4 days or less.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 09, 2020, 09:28:28 AM
The euro is notorious for over- phasing past day 4-5. The 6z euro control already lost it. Havenít looked at anything else though.
(https://media3.giphy.com/media/U4VXRfcY3zxTi/giphy.gif)


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Matthew on December 09, 2020, 10:06:44 AM
That map happening will happen when Dana Patrick wins the  NASCAR championship.  Which we all know means. #NEVER! 🤣🤣🤣.  Should I have used Vandy football winning the college football playoffs?  Which has a better chance?🤷🏻‍♂️
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Heath22 on December 09, 2020, 10:24:30 AM
Not if you're a Tennessee fan  ::cliff::

The only season I have left is tornado season. And the one when I desperately beg for a snowstorm for three to four months.

You should probably watch this weekend. You will get to see one of those good ole curb stomping's of Vandy. They are pathetic. No way Pruitt can mess this one up.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 09, 2020, 10:31:00 AM
You should probably watch this weekend. You will get to see one of those good ole curb stomping's of Vandy. They are pathetic. No way Pruitt can mess this one up.

Wanna bet LOL
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2020, 10:47:10 AM
Wanna bet LOL
vandy by 6 points  my early call...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 09, 2020, 10:50:56 AM
You should probably watch this weekend. You will get to see one of those good ole curb stomping's of Vandy. They are pathetic. No way Pruitt can mess this one up.

I'm taking the Vandy +14. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 09, 2020, 12:04:23 PM
I'm taking the Vandy +14.

Heard Vandy had like 37 players left on the team. Guess they'll be recruiting the sorority houses this week for players.

Joking aside, I wouldnt bet this game with Bruce's money, moreless my own. TN should win by 30 but we've seen this story before.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 09, 2020, 12:31:31 PM
12z Euro done stole errbody's lunch money. 

He gon'.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2020, 01:06:58 PM
As we head towards Christmas, don't put away your coats!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2020, 01:17:38 PM
12z Euro done stole errbody's lunch money. 

He gon'.
Shocker.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Matthew on December 09, 2020, 01:31:12 PM
As we head towards Christmas, don't put away your coats!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Donít tell Bruce.  Heís expecting flip flops and severe wx.  🤷🏻‍♂️
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2020, 01:41:34 PM
As we head towards Christmas, don't put away your coats!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
remember what I was saying about model guidance these days.  Simply suck now... letís get it closer .  Wasting our time
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2020, 01:55:43 PM
remember what I was saying about model guidance these days.  Simply suck now... letís get it closer .  Wasting our time
Yeah yeah if it was showing severe 20 days out you would be all over it. Practice what ya preach, I don't need your sermon. I see no severe on the horizon either! HA!  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2020, 01:56:38 PM
 
Donít tell Bruce.  Heís expecting flip flops and severe wx.  🤷🏻‍♂️
::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2020, 02:17:59 PM
Yeah yeah if it was showing severe 20 days out you would be all over it. Practice what ya preach, I don't need your sermon. I see no severe on the horizon either! HA!  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
do tell me what u see then ... Iím intrigued.lol. You will be mowing lawns late February this season snowman ...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Coach B on December 09, 2020, 02:58:13 PM
As we head towards Christmas, don't put away your coats!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

I'm just now getting back into winter form by cruising the different avenues to take in weather info. I like to read what people who are way smarter than I am have to say. All of a sudden Eric Webb(@webberweather) is going into meltdown about the long range potential of all of the indicators(-NAO, -AO, TPV splits, AAM, SSWs, etc.) of winter weather in the southeast. Good stuff!   ::popcorn::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2020, 02:58:39 PM
Hey Bruce, how about we do December and January first. I just mentioned it showed cold possibilities toward Christmas, you do the same thing with severe all the time. So spare telling me to wait it's a forum, and I am in the winter part of the forum at that.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2020, 03:03:28 PM
Hey Bruce, how about we do December and January first. I just mentioned it showed cold possibilities toward Christmas, you do the same thing with severe all the time. So spare telling me to wait it's a forum, and I am in the winter part of the forum at that.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
just like messing with you snowman... hopefully we can finally score a big winter event this season bro...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 09, 2020, 03:09:17 PM
12z Euro done stole errbody's lunch money. 

He gon'.
(https://media4.giphy.com/media/VIQfHC9jAZbt6ojTdo/giphy.gif)


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 09, 2020, 03:30:41 PM
remember what I was saying about model guidance these days.  Simply suck now... letís get it closer .  Wasting our time

Every other Bruce post:

::deadhorse::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2020, 03:34:59 PM
Every other Bruce post:

::deadhorse::

hehehe funny, but it's a point that I think is kind of valid, models seem to get worse every winter??? But I am nowhere near as smart as a lot of you on here so I could be mistaken :)   
But I do remember days in the past where if a model was showing it about 4 days out then it was a pretty good bet....even 1993 superstorm most mets saw it 6 days ahead of time on the models...imagine if that had flip flopped like they do today how bad it would have been for the mets lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 09, 2020, 03:50:26 PM
Hey Bruce, how about we do December and January first. I just mentioned it showed cold possibilities toward Christmas, you do the same thing with severe all the time. So spare telling me to wait it's a forum, and I am in the winter part of the forum at that.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Ignore him, he is just being a troll. He will say he isn't, and that he's just being realistic, but when his posts appear to be stuck on some iteration of cynicism of winter weather potential, it's hard to believe otherwise. All he's offering are these long-range speculations about warm weather with nothing to back it up.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2020, 04:01:07 PM
just like messing with you snowman... hopefully we can finally score a big winter event this season bro...
I don't have no problem with a early mowing season as long as we score some winter action from now through Jan.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2020, 05:07:09 PM
Ignore him, he is just being a troll. He will say he isn't, and that he's just being realistic, but when his posts appear to be stuck on some iteration of cynicism of winter weather potential, it's hard to believe otherwise. All he's offering are these long-range speculations about warm weather with nothing to back it up.
a troll? to funny. i have been on this forum a long time, never been called that. may be calling kettle little black there a bit bro... but lets get back to weather discussion please. you may need to post less and listen and learn some more. your a tad wet behind the ears besides. :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 09, 2020, 05:13:25 PM
Well, I'll be! I'm glad your dial-up loaded in time to dish out that comeback.

Young and green I may be, but I'll wager you don't know much more than I do. And yes, you are being a troll by posting the same thing over and over. You're getting called out for it. Just take it.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on December 09, 2020, 05:37:52 PM
It's definitely time for a legitimate weather event of some sort, it's getting a bit testy in here...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 09, 2020, 05:45:42 PM
a troll? to funny. i have been on this forum a long time, never been called that. may be calling kettle little black there a bit bro... but lets get back to weather discussion please. you may need to post less and listen and learn some more. your a tad wet behind the ears besides. :)
Yes bruce we remember you saying that " Models are worse now than they were 10 years ago. First of all that is not even close to being true. Model verification has impvoved over the years. Second, there is a reason model performance has been poor lately? Do you know why? Look at heights @ 500mb. What have we been dealing with?? Cut off lows all over the consus which models have a extremely hard time with. What do you want a model to do 120+ hours out Bruce? Any small change upsteam causes major . As you can imagine this causes havok day to day.Models have a hard time figurring out when it will eject and snag on to the jet.This is not the model being crap. Its adjusting more to whats happening than it ever has before. So before making these assumptions that the models suck, undestand what is going on currently You have been here along time man, you should understand alot of this already.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2020, 05:49:49 PM
If you donít like what a member is posting there is an ignore button. You still can see quotes but itís a start. Until then be nice .
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 09, 2020, 07:38:39 PM
Deep breathís


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clay on December 09, 2020, 08:04:44 PM
Tennessee and Kentucky have a shot at catching a glimpse of Aurora Borealis tonight. Look across the northern horizon for a greenish tint to the sky!

(unless you live in far South Nashville and the nighttime is northern horizon polluted with city lights  ::bagoverhead::)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 09, 2020, 10:12:48 PM
That escalated quickly lol.

Dont look but the 00z GFS is starting to show a tiny bit of precip on Monday now. Yes, precip (basically rain) but wasnt showing anything at all while Euro was freaking out. Just something to watch. Might develop into something minor...might not. Still roughly 4 days out.
(https://media4.giphy.com/media/mmYy42RNrgA0w/giphy.gif)
 


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 09, 2020, 10:22:44 PM
That escalated quickly lol.

Dont look but the 00z GFS is starting to show a tiny bit of precip on Monday now. Yes, precip (basically rain) but wasnt showing anything at all while Euro was freaking out. Just something to watch. Might develop into something minor...might not. Still roughly 4 days out.
(https://media4.giphy.com/media/mmYy42RNrgA0w/giphy.gif)
 


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Well...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201210/9ea6a7e8a0d573d9f003e932affd15be.gif)


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 09, 2020, 10:49:33 PM
Pretty large change from the 12Z GFS run to the 00Z tonight. The wave diving down seem much less sheared out and more compact/rubust. We are going to need to keep
a eye on the ridge axis and how it makes it way down out of the plains. I am look to see if this start to want to close off much like the ealier runs of the
European. If this get wound up , its going to come further North. Temperatures are borderline but better dynamics under strong upper level system could be the
the key at snowfall vs rain... Isnt it always??? If you want my opinion, I think we are in also  fantastic time for winter WX. Its just a card show into the extended
We have been seeing many storms materialize at 72-100 hours in or so. Its the nature of our pattern, models are having to deal with a bunch of features, which
one get passed along, and which one floats and hangs out. Lots of rumble imo, just have to see if we time it right with the coler air. Models are pushing at
another Low Pressure passing south into the extended. Last but not least as snow cover builds to the North, January could be interetsing if this type of
pattern keeps up. We know the Pacific is going to likely continue being very fast with riding over california. Assuming the NAO bounces around there
could very well be a period of very cold air come down or the West get very cold and as ridge mvoes we are under strong NW flow. Alot of good things can happen
but we need to just kinda chill out a bit. Not much is different this year than most, we just view it different with tech. Listen but dont listen, these are
my opinions, from my head, not from another website or someone else. You have to KISS here for the weather. Look back and we can see these periods at times
produces quick hitting storms.
Title: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2020, 05:59:08 AM
Euro and GFS both show a system for Monday. A ďSouthern SliderĒ. Not organized well. But, has time to develop more, strengthen and pull more cold air down. Track and Strength gonna be key.

But, we legit got a system to watch over next ~96 hours. Fyi, both show a Wed system (albeit less organized for now).

Things gettin active!


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2020, 08:18:27 AM
okc to tulsa... looks like a nice winter shot coming their way :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 08:32:57 AM
We got start tapping into some colder air to have shot of a winter storm around here to be honest ...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2020, 09:08:46 AM
Winter is such a catch 22 here....I love the cold air when it snows but I don't like it when it is cold and doesn't snow LOL....in order for a good snow around here we need the cold air already in place so I constantly have to remind myself of that when it is cold and there isn't any precip that that's what we need in place before we have a chance at a good storm :)

Winter in Tennessee, what fun lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 10, 2020, 09:31:46 AM
Canada is getting much colder, that is good news. Our cold source is getting colder.  ::cold::  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2020, 10:12:01 AM
Last nights euro deterministic and control was just a tad too warm for snow but it wasnít far off at all. It needs to be a little stronger to pull some cold air down which really isnít that far off even if itís marginal.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 10, 2020, 10:36:14 AM
I'll be damned, though, if that's not a perfect track for snow.  12z Euro's going to be interesting. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2020, 10:42:34 AM
I'll be damned, though, if that's not a perfect track for snow.  12z Euro's going to be interesting.

I know look at that track :(
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 10, 2020, 10:46:16 AM
Cutter, slider, coastal runner, cutter.

Mother nature really mixing up her pitches.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2020, 11:41:50 AM
I know look at that track :(

I'm relieved it's not showing a big snowstorm right now. That would be a punch in the gut if we had one of them good ole sliders to track only for it to vanish.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 11:46:44 AM
I'm relieved it's not showing a big snowstorm right now. That would be a punch in the gut if we had one of them good ole sliders to track only for it to vanish.
remember just last winter we had several systems that would been perfect track for us. Countless. Gulf coast runners no cold air work with . Track wonít matter less deep cold air in place .  If we had stronger system yeah, but some would be left out with slp tracking more northeast with a stronger system waa would screw some of us to east especially
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2020, 12:19:18 PM
I'm relieved it's not showing a big snowstorm right now. That would be a punch in the gut if we had one of them good ole sliders to track only for it to vanish.

Either way it's a punch in the gut lol, I HATE chilly rains on a system that would be perfect if we had cold air, and then it would also suck if it just vanished as well lol....such is the Tennessee life :) It will happen one day for us !
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 12:25:29 PM
Either way it's a punch in the gut lol, I HATE chilly rains on a system that would be perfect if we had cold air, and then it would also suck if it just vanished as well lol....such is the Tennessee life :) It will happen one day for us !
big question is will it e in our life time bama...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2020, 12:31:59 PM
big question is will it e in our life time bama...

I am only 34 so surely :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2020, 12:35:08 PM
I would like to reorder a 1-29-2010 I-40 special. That's what this system's track looks like.

Middle Tennessee would also like to order another Jonas or a 1-16-03 Surprise.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2020, 12:39:38 PM
Euro took a small step in the right direction. Needs to strengthen more in order to get the cold air pulled in that we need. GFS solution is very similar, not as strong.

Fwiw, 2-3 days later another opportunity?


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on December 10, 2020, 12:40:31 PM
Classic cold chasing moisture on the Euro. If we could just get that low to close off. Does it really matter with yesterday-Saturday ground temps though?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 10, 2020, 12:46:49 PM
OHX is being being a little pessimistic about the Sunday and Wed. snow on their latest local forecast.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on December 10, 2020, 12:49:55 PM
Maybe Iím getting old, but Iíve come to appreciate mild days during the winter months. Itís rather nice out today.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 10, 2020, 01:16:57 PM
Maybe Iím getting old, but Iíve come to appreciate mild days during the winter months. Itís rather nice out today.
Same here TS!  And I am old with a lot of arthritis! Really though the only times I get really excited about snow is in December.  I think it was 2010 when we got a great snow snow a week or so before Christmas.  Loved it with Christmas lights reflecting on the snow.  And our girlie loves it any time like most children!   ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2020, 01:20:50 PM
OHX is being being a little pessimistic about the Sunday and Wed. snow on their latest local forecast.  ::snowman::
With the way models have been, I dont blame them. Plus, Sun/Mon still needs some help if its gonna be snow. That low needs to strengthen. Track looks good though. Wednesday is too far out to say one way or another. Anything beyond 3 days seems to be a crap shoot anymore.


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Title: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2020, 01:26:08 PM
Fwiw...latest AFD snippet from MRX:
 
Quote
  troughing will continue to influence much of the plains and
eastern CONUS. A stronger shortwave trough digs into the central
plains Sunday and into Monday. A weak surface low will accompany
this shortwave as it tracks into the Tennessee Valley Sunday night
or Monday. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC are in decent agreement regarding
the h50 pattern with only minor differences in the surface low
strength between the GFS/ECMWF and CMC. Moisture and ascent will
lift into the region late Sunday night and into Monday. Synoptic
scale ascent looks to become maximized between 00Z and 12Z Monday
when Q-vector convergence is strongest along with mid-upper level
PVA. The main questions is how much cold air will be able to advect
into the area before the QPF exits. While its a bit early still,
guidance is in decent agreement regarding thermal profiles with the
ECMWF a touch cooler than the GFS. At this point, I think there is
enough consensus at the moment to say that rain will change to snow
showers early Monday.
I would suspect most of the QPF pulls out of
the area before any meaningful snow can occur but again it is still
early and lot can change between now and Sunday night. Temperatures
will run above normal Sunday but will drop to near or below normal
for Monday.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 01:45:33 PM
Maybe Iím getting old, but Iíve come to appreciate mild days during the winter months. Itís rather nice out today.
currently 1 pm sitting at 71 degrees on December 10 not to shabby ...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Coach B on December 10, 2020, 01:59:02 PM
Maybe Iím getting old, but Iíve come to appreciate mild days during the winter months. Itís rather nice out today.

Welcome to the club! 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 10, 2020, 01:59:28 PM
Classic cold chasing moisture on the Euro. If we could just get that low to close off. Does it really matter with yesterday-Saturday ground temps though?

Bingo.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2020, 02:21:52 PM
Weíve reached our high of 60 here in NE TN.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2020, 02:25:17 PM
Bingo.
Northeast Tn had recent snow cover and nighttime temps below 32 last few days. Fri/Sat lows will be near 40, but not sure ground temps will be as much of an issue for us as it might be for middle/west folks.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2020, 02:25:46 PM
Classic cold chasing moisture on the Euro. If we could just get that low to close off. Does it really matter with yesterday-Saturday ground temps though?

It will take a lot to overcome that. Heavy rates, temps no higher than 32-33F, and preferably falling during hours with low or zero sunlight.

It's 70 here. Feels good though.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 02:29:52 PM
A lot of model support of the mjo heading phases 4 and 5 again... towards end this month. That wonít be good
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2020, 02:31:21 PM
Side note: snow piled up in Denver on September 8th, 2020, one day after temperatures in the upper 90s.

So if it's heavy enough, it doesn't matter that much.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2020, 02:32:31 PM
A lot of model support of the mjo heading phases 4 and 5 again... towards end this month. That wonít be good

It is currently stagnant in phase 5, but confidence of it trending in any direction is low
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 02:34:34 PM
It is currently stagnant in phase 5, but confidence of it trending in any direction is low
seen couple members showing heading towards phase 7... 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2020, 02:43:05 PM
[attachimg=1]

Dat MJO stubborn.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 10, 2020, 03:03:37 PM
Maybe Iím getting old, but Iíve come to appreciate mild days during the winter months. Itís rather nice out today.

It is a sign of age.  I lived for cold weather in my youth.  I didn't feel it.

After 40, it hurts.  If it ain't gonna snow, cold air blows. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2020, 03:42:53 PM
One of the things I enjoy most about winter is the feel of the air right before a winter storm. The air has a fresh, pleasant smell to it, too.

Though I prefer cold weather, I do like warm weather on the holidays. Being outside in nice weather on the holidays has created a lot of good memories for me. Conversely, if the weather is cool and rainy, I enjoy Christmas pastimes inside. I don't even mind nasty weather if I can coop up inside, relax, and cook some good meals.

Either way is a win-win. But if I had to pick, some flakes are pretty nice around Christmastime. I think that's something we could all agree on. Hard to believe it's been a full decade since the graciously snowy year of 2010. The White Christmas of '10 was magical for those of us who hadn't witnessed one before.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 03:48:00 PM
One of the things I enjoy most about winter is the feel of the air right before a winter storm. The air has a fresh, pleasant smell to it, too.

Though I prefer cold weather, I do like warm weather on the holidays. Being outside in nice weather on the holidays has created a lot of good memories for me. Conversely, if the weather is cool and rainy, I enjoy Christmas pastimes inside. I don't even mind nasty weather if I can coop up inside, relax, and cook some good meals.

Either way is a win-win. But if I had to pick, some flakes are pretty nice around Christmastime. I think that's something we could all agree on. Hard to believe it's been a full decade since the graciously snowy year of 2010. The White Christmas of '10 was magical for those of us who hadn't witnessed one before.
pleasant smell to it? Lol... I take u donít live near a paper mill plant .
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 10, 2020, 03:57:30 PM
pleasant smell to it? Lol... I take u donít live near a paper mill plant .

There is some truth there.  IIRC, there's a paper mill somewhere north of Chattanooga - Sweetwater or Athens, maybe - and every time you drive by there, I swear it smells like Oscar the Grouch's anus.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2020, 04:00:31 PM
pleasant smell to it? Lol... I take u donít live near a paper mill plant .

Paper mill smell is a special kind of awful.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 10, 2020, 04:00:58 PM
Just a FYI , It is going to snow Christmas. You heard it here first.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2020, 04:06:16 PM
Just a FYI , It is going to snow Christmas. You heard it here first.

I remember Uncle Nasty posted something like that back in January, and it verified two weeks later. I just hope you went to the same fortune teller.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2020, 04:07:46 PM
A lot of model support of the mjo heading phases 4 and 5 again... towards end this month. That wonít be good
Can you post that? Everything I see is null phase heading barely into 6. Once past there itís a crapshoot but 7 looks likely.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 10, 2020, 04:10:17 PM
There is some truth there.  IIRC, there's a paper mill somewhere north of Chattanooga - Sweetwater or Athens, maybe - and every time you drive by there, I swear it smells like Oscar the Grouch's anus.
Also right or wrong has been said to contribute to the dense fog that frequents the area. Most notable the fog that caused the multiple fatality pileup roughly 30 yesrs ago.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 10, 2020, 04:13:32 PM
I remember Uncle Nasty posted something like that back in January, and it verified two weeks later. I just hope you went to the same fortune teller.
Dyer has been known to start threads that knocked it out of the park. I remember once Bruce started one that was dead in a matter of hours


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2020, 04:27:37 PM
Dyer has been known to start threads that knocked it out of the park. I remember once Bruce started one that was dead in a matter of hours


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o.. big winter threat comin up late week... ripped big fart this evening n it smelt like we be get snow soon... teleconnections fixin line up 4 big storm



OKAY I'll stop I'll stop  ::rofl::

bruce I'm open season now
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 10, 2020, 04:44:38 PM
There is some truth there.  IIRC, there's a paper mill somewhere north of Chattanooga - Sweetwater or Athens, maybe - and every time you drive by there, I swear it smells like Oscar the Grouch's anus.

I'd say that is a pretty accurate description.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 04:57:15 PM
Can you post that? Everything I see is null phase heading barely into 6. Once past there itís a crapshoot but 7 looks likely.
yeah like  i said, there were few showed it heading into phase 7... paster not working lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 05:03:52 PM
going over some latest gfs ensembles... couple showing up to a foot of snow over central oklahoma early next week... ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 10, 2020, 05:28:34 PM
yeah lik i said, there were few showed it heading into phase 7... paster not working lol

I hate when either the ctrl or v keys act up. So aggravatin'. Thats technology for ya.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2020, 05:58:38 PM
I hate when either the ctrl or v keys act up. So aggravatin'. Thats technology for ya.

 ::rofl::  ::rofl::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 08:57:48 PM
Calling snowman . Clarksville snowman...check out 0z nam.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 10, 2020, 10:02:24 PM
This is what I am watching right now. Surface is important yes, but I am more concerned with the overall look at 500MB and where these features are at this time. Currently the first feature is getting some good data ingested tonight and the second looks to be around 12Z Saturday. Things are going to start tightening up as we get better data ingested. Why models have been all over the place is because of cut off features and the constant barrage on storms. Small moves change the game very quickly. So lets watch the features over the next day. The second feature needs to tighten up. I am not making a forecast just showing you what I am look at right now. Temperatures are going to be slightly too warm if we do not have some help dynamically. 



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 10:10:05 PM
Dyer has been known to start threads that knocked it out of the park. I remember once Bruce started one that was dead in a matter of hours


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/quote]now i did start thread for great may 2010 floods... there hasnt been anything exciting years to start one. lol when it comes time, i will
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 10:12:15 PM
Dyer has been known to start threads that knocked it out of the park. I remember once Bruce started one that was dead in a matter of hours


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i started the great flood of may 2010 thread, there hasnt been anything exciting for years for me to start one. when it does, i try another one
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 10, 2020, 10:14:03 PM
NAM vs GFS temperature profiles @ 925 are quite different, hence why you see the NAM likely showing SN. GFS has a hard time getting 925's down below 0C , much of the time spent just above. NAM profile has 925mb temps below freezing. No need to dig hard because its the extended range of the NAM but temp profiles are right on the border. As with the last storms here, heavier returns can bring cooler temps down from 925mb. Likely scenario is snow falling without really sticking to anything other than raised surfaces. But we have something to watch and enjoy no matter what the outcome. I fly out to Tahoe Sunday, or maybe Monday if we really get something sneak out of this. I am chasing a pacific storms that has been too far N. Starting to get some better agreement in the latest QPF totals into the Sierra. SO just like Here, I have been watching the pacific closely which is upstream and I can tell you its been frustrating. Anyways Cheers
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 10, 2020, 10:15:49 PM
Dyer has been known to start threads that knocked it out of the park. I remember once Bruce started one that was dead in a matter of hours


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now i did start thread for great may 2010 floods... there hasnt been anything exciting years to start one. lol when it comes time, i will

If we are using a 1/1000 year flood as exciting we are all safe from bruce for another 990 years lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 10:16:41 PM
NAM vs GFS temperature profiles @ 925 are quite different, hence why you see the NAM likely showing SN. GFS has a hard time getting 925's down below 0C , much of the time spent just above. NAM profile has 925mb temps below freezing. No need to dig hard because its the extended range of the NAM but temp profiles are right on the border. As with the last storms here, heavier returns can bring cooler temps down from 925mb. Likely scenario is snow falling without really sticking to anything other than raised surfaces. But we have something to watch and enjoy no matter what the outcome. I fly out to Tahoe Sunday, or maybe Monday if we really get something sneak out of this. I am chasing a pacific storms that has been too far N. Starting to get some better agreement in the latest QPF totals into the Sierra. SO just like Here, I have been watching the pacific closely which is upstream and I can tell you its been frustrating. Anyways Cheers
the gfs does show some heavier returns over the northern half of arkansas in form of heavy snow. but 850 temps are marginal
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 10, 2020, 10:23:59 PM
the gfs does show some heavier returns over the northern half of arkansas in form of heavy snow. but 850 temps are marginal
Are you looking at the simulated GFS radar or are you talking about 6Hr QPF? What I believe you are looking at are not returns because there is no simulated radar as far as I know for the GFS. Yes precip totals have increased over those areas. The very Northwestern area shows light to moderate snowfall with 850mb well below 0C , 925mb are marginal as I have said earlier.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2020, 10:30:58 PM
Are you looking at the simulated GFS radar or are you talking about 6Hr QPF? What I believe you are looking at are not returns because there is no simulated radar as far as I know for the GFS. Yes precip totals have increased over those areas. The very Northwestern area shows light to moderate snowfall with 850mb well below 0C , 925mb are marginal as I have said earlier.
yeah, qpf
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 10, 2020, 10:59:25 PM
yeah, qpf

Word, so we are seeing more QPF. I have not looked but let me know if the increase in QPF in those areas are from increased intensity or a longer duration of precipitation. Break it down into 1hr to 3hr increments if you need to. What we are wanting to find out is if the increased QPF in those areas are from heavier "returns" over the same period or a different duration in snowfall. Then we can say , higher returns caused more QPF or there is just overall more moisture. Its just playing with things and getting a feel for looking at QPF maps and trying to correlate it with intensity. We can see sim radar on many of the short range/hi res models, so its just interesting to note the relation, even if it doesn't mean crap at this time. Its about honing in on your skills. Let me know
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 10, 2020, 11:08:17 PM
Calling snowman . Clarksville snowman...check out 0z nam.
I saw it, still along ways to go. Could be a cold rain, temps are going to be key. I like the basic track, but temps look to be the key. At least it's something to watch, probably going to be several more runs before things start to become clear one way or another. ::popcorn::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 10, 2020, 11:32:47 PM
00Z 12NAM Version of the next 48 where I am heading Sunday. Several other storms to follow but this is now and will be part of what we are dealing with here eventually.This is my current baby I am watching... My place is just SW of the lake. Looking like .5  - .75" QPF at the house. Temperatures to start should be good down to 6000ft but will raise up to 7200 before dropping back down. Areas above 7500 will be all snow, with some favored upslope areas on the western sierras and along the crest could do 2" QPF. Those hot spots you are usually overdone. 

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest-conus/reno/total_precip_inch/1607644800/1607817600-BN937PF8d9Y.png)


GFS for reference which is better to use as a forecast and much more reasonable given this system and ones like it that come on. 1" QPF max S into the Sierras Ö This looks much more likely..

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/reno/total_precip_inch/1607644800/1607817600-1UaafHqu3d0.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on December 11, 2020, 10:32:28 AM
Air quality is in the orange zone today. That's pretty odd for this time of year. I wonder if there is some smoke in the air from somewhere.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 11, 2020, 11:45:50 AM
That's just going to be miserable, bone-soaking, cold-@$$ rain Sunday night, isn' t it....

Gotta give the Euro credit.  It sniffed it out before the GFS did but, like Curt mentioned, over-amplified it.  Oh well.  On to the next.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2020, 11:57:34 AM
That's just going to be miserable, bone-soaking, cold-@$$ rain Sunday night, isn' t it....

Gotta give the Euro credit.  It sniffed it out before the GFS did but, like Curt mentioned, over-amplified it.  Oh well.  On to the next.
the euro used to not over phase systems in past years... think all models gone to crap mostly. dont know what to go by on a forecast anymore.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 11, 2020, 12:06:50 PM
the euro used to not over phase systems in past years... think all models gone to crap mostly. dont know what to go by on a forecast anymore.

[/img]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2020, 12:08:05 PM
here is my conclusion on the model guidance we most use for forecasting.  GFSis to much northern stream bias.... EURO holds back energy in the sw to long and tends to over phase systems make them to strong ... CMC is just plain cold bias... NAM just over hypes about every system no matter if its hour 84 or hour 48... perhaps in my opinion the best model out there overall is the UKIE but it only goes out to 144 hours.... good luck forecasting ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 11, 2020, 01:19:07 PM
Sure looks like the first major Noríeaster is on tap for next week for the 95 corridor. Could be huge for them.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 11, 2020, 03:26:54 PM
Sure looks like the first major Noríeaster is on tap for next week for the 95 corridor. Could be huge for them.

Yep my relatives in east Jersey could get a big one
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2020, 04:18:31 PM
Oh, but what Sunday night's system could be  >:( It's just a tad too warm. The low is too close to us, and it looks like every location along the NW track except us will receive snowfall.

Unless things change, the midweek system looks the same, unless we get an unlikely SE trend.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 11, 2020, 04:39:22 PM
Oh, but what Sunday night's system could be  >:( It's just a tad too warm. The low is too close to us, and it looks like every location along the NW track except us will receive snowfall.

Unless things change, the midweek system looks the same, unless we get an unlikely SE trend.

I think we all knew that was the case :)...nothing to really track next 7 days to me
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Matthew on December 11, 2020, 10:20:41 PM
I think the best forecasting tools out there is the rocks.  Never wrong using rocks. They never break and are always reliable.  If wet itís raining.  If white itís snowing.  Dry means sunny.  Then pick them up to know temp. 🤷🏻‍♂️
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 11, 2020, 10:35:32 PM
Snowing at the cabin in Tahoe. Liking what I see. Hopefully I can get over Spooner Pass, its usually not bad @ 7000ish.. I will send it this way, I want a white Christmas in TN

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/norcal/total_precip_inch/1607731200/1607947200-IbDxplwwBaY.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 12, 2020, 12:23:54 AM
Oh and the Euro comes in with the kill! Keepings fingers crossed, we need this bad!


(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/norcal/total_precip_inch/1607731200/1607947200-OemLwgvYlBU.png)

Areas along the Crest will do 3-4' verbatim with at least 2' into South lake. QPF has been increasing with the second push it may just over perform. GFS has midweek storm as well. Ill stop messing up our local thread but something fun if you guy wana follow the next 7 days. I will likely start a Mtn Snow thread. I can still be a weenie!!

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/reno/total_snow_kuchera/1607731200/1607947200-igjkvlJhTHU.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 12, 2020, 06:34:36 AM
06z GFS 48hr QPF Totals 00z Sun through 00z Tues. If only the cold air had been available...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201212/569e12904a93b4190d3f70df599d6edf.jpg)


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 12, 2020, 06:56:47 AM
06z GFS 48hr QPF Totals 00z Sun through 00z Tues. If only the cold air had been available...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201212/569e12904a93b4190d3f70df599d6edf.jpg)


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thats something we all should be accustom  to by now in  this part of the world, you got good cold air going be bone dry... got plenty moisture usually going be to warm for snow n sleet. :D
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 12, 2020, 07:50:10 AM
Watching for a potential Nor'Easter system later next week.  It may or may not get parts of East TN involved we will have to wait and see.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 12, 2020, 09:38:26 AM
looks like oklahoma city is heading for a nice 3 to 4 inch snow tomorrow... not even winter yet and this will be their second winter storm, first one being a ice storm back november. ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 12, 2020, 10:05:52 AM
thats something we all should be accustom  to by now in  this part of the world, you got good cold air going be bone dry... got plenty moisture usually going be to warm for snow n sleet. :D

Excellent analysis
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 12, 2020, 10:10:18 AM
06z GFS 48hr QPF Totals 00z Sun through 00z Tues. If only the cold air had been available...
(https://uploads.t apatalk-cdn.com/20201212/569e12904a93b4190d3f70df599d6edf.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That would be a fantastic storms even at 10:1. One of the many that were never supposed to be but one we all wanted. I am happy to keep the active pattern around. Plenty of L pressure developing, we just need a ULL feature or a nice high in place to bright it in. Lots sneaking in under 120 hours still with this type of pattern we are in. Crest was supposed to do 6-12" last night in the Sierra. Moisture skid down the western slope, it was a bust. Second storm Sunday looks much better. My point, its easy even in the places it supposed to snow to not get what you wished for. Everyone deals with it relative to average.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 12, 2020, 10:15:10 AM
Excellent analysis
thanks man, rob while your out west, send some that snow our way. ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 12, 2020, 10:41:30 AM
thanks man, rob while your out west, send some that snow our way. ::snowman::

You got it man. We busted last night along the Eastern Slope. Heights were too much out of the NNW to push it up and over. But But, I am kinda of jumping up and down for Sunday and now what I thought was lost is back strong on Thursday. GFS had it , Euro wanted nothing to do with it Ö GFS looses it and Euro this sniffs it out again. Now the GFS is full blown again start Wedesday night. This is a legit system that could give us a nice 18-24" with more along the crest.


Check out the new 12Z GFS through 6Z Friday. 24 Hours Totals... At 10:1 that's easy math. We usually are more along the Kuchera output. Lots will change but the signal is was lost and is now back with global and ensemble support.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/reno/precip_24hr_inch/1607774400/1608271200-BPKiBUZIMMA.png)


**Some changes to the forecast this morning with a better chance for a  storm on Thursday. Outside of Thursday, the forecast hasn`t changed that much. The ensembles are in much better agreement this morning with that storm for Thursday with the EC ensemble gravitating significantly toward the GEFS ideas.**
Kuchera Totals through 06Z Friday. This actually happens we we go beast mode!
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/reno/total_snow_kuchera/1607774400/1608271200-FULIIojIxes.png)

Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 12, 2020, 11:46:31 AM
06z GFS 48hr QPF Totals 00z Sun through 00z Tues. If only the cold air had been available...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201212/569e12904a93b4190d3f70df599d6edf.jpg)

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While I'd rather see snow, it's good to some soaking rains as well.  Most of us have been running well below normal for the last two months in the precip. department since the tropics quit throwing storms our way.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 12, 2020, 11:55:33 AM
06z GFS 48hr QPF Totals 00z Sun through 00z Tues. If only the cold air had been available...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201212/569e12904a93b4190d3f70df599d6edf.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah totally sucks....used to it....i am jaded....i am always interested in everybody's optimism in here at times even when there was no chance this system was gonna do anything here people still were hoping :)....Nothing wrong with that, thats all we have had for years now lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 12, 2020, 11:58:40 AM
Starting to get the sense that a potential historic Noríeaster may be in the way.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 12, 2020, 12:01:24 PM
Yeah totally sucks....used to it....i am jaded....i am always interested in everybody's optimism in here at times even when there was no chance this system was gonna do anything here people still were hoping :)....Nothing wrong with that, thats all we have had for years now lol
kind sounds like me ...lol no doubt
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 12, 2020, 12:10:54 PM
kind sounds like me ...lol no doubt

Nothing wrong with hoping a storm will take a different track or more cold air will arrive......nothing wrong with wishing, i am just a realist when it comes to snow here lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 12, 2020, 12:16:02 PM
i wish i could take a trip up to my family in the trenton NJ area :) gonna be a big one next week it looks like :)

I get jealous every year when they send me their 12 inch+ storm pics lol
Title: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 12, 2020, 12:45:10 PM
Every single major global puts 20 or more inches of snow along and just NW of 95 corridor. Add 50 mph gusts..thats straight up blizzard material.  Still 5 days away. Thatís amazing consistency.

The second system for us on Tuesday looks a little interesting with the 540 line down the the souther border. It seems to lose whatever energy it had coming out of the southern plains before phasing for the Noríeaster.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 12, 2020, 01:05:22 PM
Every single major global puts 20 or more inches of snow along and just NW of 95 corridor. Add 50 mph gusts..thats straight up blizzard material.  Still 5 days away. Thatís amazing consistency.

The second system for us on Tuesday looks a little interesting with the 540 line down the the souther border. It seems to lose whatever energy it had coming out of the southern plains before phasing for the Noríeaster.

Forecast high temps in 40's for our area with "possible" 33 and 34 for a low, not too interesting to me :(
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on December 12, 2020, 01:47:09 PM
Is it just me or did all the radars on Radarscope have their range doubled?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 12, 2020, 02:28:02 PM
NW Oklahoma is the early winner so far this young winter in cashing in on winter threats. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 12, 2020, 05:32:44 PM
Every single major global puts 20 or more inches of snow along and just NW of 95 corridor. Add 50 mph gusts..thats straight up blizzard material.  Still 5 days away. Thatís amazing consistency.

The second system for us on Tuesday looks a little interesting with the 540 line down the the souther border. It seems to lose whatever energy it had coming out of the southern plains before phasing for the Noríeaster.

The midweek system for our area will be the Lite version of tomorrow night. Same temps, less rain.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 12, 2020, 09:02:23 PM
The HRRR wants to place a backside moderate to heavy band of snow across the Cumberland Plateau into Eastern KY on Sunday Night-Monday Morning. 

It is also pretty impressive for Northwestern and North-Central Arkansas showing 3-7 inches of snow.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 12, 2020, 09:31:02 PM
The HRRR wants to place a backside moderate to heavy band of snow across the Cumberland Plateau into Eastern KY on Sunday Night-Monday Morning. 

It is also pretty impressive for Northwestern and North-Central Arkansas showing 3-7 inches of snow.
yeah saw that nice deform band sets up over nw Arkansas
Title: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 12, 2020, 09:39:53 PM
The HRRR wants to place a backside moderate to heavy band of snow across the Cumberland Plateau into Eastern KY on Sunday Night-Monday Morning. 

It is also pretty impressive for Northwestern and North-Central Arkansas showing 3-7 inches of snow.
12k and 3k NAM pretty much change rain to snow across northern Arkansas and west TN into northern middle now.

Add the RGEM to that too.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 12, 2020, 10:08:24 PM
12k and 3k NAM pretty much change rain to snow across northern Arkansas and west TN into northern middle now.

Add the RGEM to that too.

Chances seem better across W TN for some wet snowflakes due to cooperating temps.  However, 34-35F profiles are common - from the NAM3 - across Mid TN.  Unless there's some crazy dynamic cooling, most of Mid TN may get shut out.  Plateau may score some flakes.
Title: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 12, 2020, 10:13:13 PM
Chances seem better across W TN for some wet snowflakes due to cooperating temps.  However, 34-35F profiles are common - from the NAM3 - across Mid TN.  Unless there's some crazy dynamic cooling, most of Mid TN may get shut out.  Plateau may score some flakes.
Nighttime is a plus - and there seems to be some ULL support swinging through on the back side of the low that is just now made it into the modeling which makes sense since itís actually on the map now.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 12, 2020, 10:24:09 PM
12k and 3k NAM pretty much change rain to snow across northern Arkansas and west TN into northern middle now.

Add the RGEM to that too.

Its because I am leaving. Always hate missing snow here. Thermals are going to be borderline, but a couple degrees cooler and we could see light snow accumulations along and north of I-40
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest-conus/chattanooga/total_snow_10to1/1607817600/1607979600-JPmfIxvueM0.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 12, 2020, 10:29:14 PM
Nighttime is a plus - and there seems to be some ULL support swinging through on the back side of the low that is just now made it into the modeling which makes sense since itís actually on the map now.

Thursday I mentioned that we would have to wait to today to see what type of UL support there was going to be. 1-2" of wet snow in the middle of the night is not 100% impossible here, just improbable until we see it tomorrow am on the 12Z suites. HRRR and Hi res models will continue to sniff out finer details and may have a better grasp on thermals right now.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 12, 2020, 10:32:14 PM
Ground temps are marginal.  Its gonna have to absolutely pour snow for it to accumulate on anything shorter than mailboxes and car hoods.  If it ever changes over.  Big if.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 12, 2020, 10:36:34 PM
Ground temps are marginal.  Its gonna have to absolutely pour snow for it to accumulate on anything shorter than mailboxes and car hoods.  If it ever changes over.  Big if.
i be happy just see some big wet flakes flying around .
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 12, 2020, 10:39:37 PM
Thursday I mentioned that we would have to wait to today to see what type of UL support there was going to be. 1-2" of wet snow in the middle of the night is not 100% impossible here, just improbable until we see it tomorrow am on the 12Z suites. HRRR and Hi res models will continue to sniff out finer details and may have a better grasp on thermals right now.
There was something similar in Nashville about 10 years ago in December. Rain changed to some decent wet snow in the evening hours. Short term modeling was all over it but it wasnít forecast. I was in Nashville working that day but someone might remember it better.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 12, 2020, 11:39:37 PM
There was something similar in Nashville about 10 years ago in December. Rain changed to some decent wet snow in the evening hours. Short term modeling was all over it but it wasnít forecast. I was in Nashville working that day but someone might remember it better.

I think I know the event but it didn't really have a chance to accumulate tho.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 13, 2020, 02:08:54 AM
There was something similar in Nashville about 10 years ago in December.

It seems like it snowed in 2010 no matter what happened. That year was good.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2020, 05:01:36 AM
Afd from Little Rock klzk sounds really interesting say least .
Title: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 13, 2020, 06:25:04 AM
FWIW...for you West and Middle Tn folks...
And given the projected precipitation rates, you should be able to overcome the warm ground temps to a certain extent. Iíd say most in the shown accumulation area could at least see a white ground, albeit for a very short time. Once precip stops, snow melt will win. This, of course, assuming nothing changes much over next 18-24 hours. But, wouldnít be surprised for some of you to score a little.

Not us East Tn folks turn, this time.

06z HRRR 36 hrs out
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201213/dbfcfc053045ad43d79352cf8ded2adb.jpg)

06z NAM 3k 36 hrs out
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201213/ea00d38b04b8f6c4f52b9035929b6cb9.jpg)



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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 13, 2020, 08:00:04 AM
FWIW...for you West and Middle Tn folks...
And given the projected precipitation rates, you should be able to overcome the warm ground temps to a certain extent. Iíd say most in the shown accumulation area could at least see a white ground, albeit for a very short time. Once precip stops, snow melt will win. This, of course, assuming nothing changes much over next 18-24 hours. But, wouldnít be surprised for some of you to score a little.

Not us East Tn folks turn, this time.

06z HRRR 36 hrs out
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201213/dbfcfc053045ad43d79352cf8ded2adb.jpg)

06z NAM 3k 36 hrs out
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201213/ea00d38b04b8f6c4f52b9035929b6cb9.jpg)



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Updated 12z HRRR out 34hrs
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201213/58bd4461b0f59b9eb2d57cc18b230786.jpg)


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2020, 08:01:35 AM
nws oklahoma city extended winter storm warning to cover greater okc area, short range models now showing up to 6 inches there today. snow is currently getting heavier now ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 13, 2020, 08:48:17 AM
nws oklahoma city extended winter storm warning to cover greater okc area, short range models now showing up to 6 inches there today. snow is currently getting heavier now ::snowman::

I want the whole country to get as much snow as possible. Snow cover is paltry right now.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on December 13, 2020, 09:35:10 AM
Updated 12z HRRR out 34hrs
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201213/58bd4461b0f59b9eb2d57cc18b230786.jpg)


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Looks about right as Clarksville always gets the heavy, wet stuff when down closer to Nashville gets the cold rain.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on December 13, 2020, 10:50:02 AM
Not a bad look on the GFS right now for Christmas Eve lol. Too bad that's post 200hrs and will disappear.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 13, 2020, 10:57:50 AM
Looks about right as Clarksville always gets the heavy, wet stuff when down closer to Nashville gets the cold rain.

I expect this will be a splat-melt event unless rates are as heavy as 1-2" per her hour. NW Tennessee and the Plateau could see some of the heavy wet stuff. Localized accumulations possible if it's heavy enough, but take a good long look at it as it will melt very quickly.

Wash, rinse, repeat for the midweek system. I'm moving on to what's ahead ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 13, 2020, 11:25:47 AM
Good grief. Perfect track for my location. About one degree from having snow until Christmas on the Latest HRR

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 13, 2020, 11:42:13 AM
These near hits sting, don't they?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BALLPARK on December 13, 2020, 11:47:46 AM
It does have my interest anyway.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2020, 11:53:18 AM
Good grief. Perfect track for my location. About one degree from having snow until Christmas on the Latest HRR

(Attachment Link)
i suspect if this were in middle of january, we be seeing a different ball game...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2020, 11:59:57 AM
long range ensembles , know its long range... but after christmas is picking up on some the best blocking pattern we have seen in years, heading ending of this month... we cant score out of that pattern im seeing. i dont know what we have to do, cause the southern stream looks buisy moving forward with a nice southerly storm track setting up. ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JHart on December 13, 2020, 12:01:08 PM
This morning's NWS discussion from Little Rock brings back memories of frustration for me as a kid in central Arksansas glued to my little weather radio in the 1970's, praying for those slight southward shifts that never came.

I will never forget (forgive) the great Christmas day snowstorm of 1975 ... NW Arkansas picked up over a foot while we sat in 33F rain all day.

Congratulations to that corner of the state ... it really has been a long time since a setup like this occurred for them.

[Edited for brevity]

888
FXUS64 KLZK 131736
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1136 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
[...]

...Over NWRN/WRN portions of the CWA...precip may start off a wintry
mix in the morning due to the moisture falling into dry air near the
SFC before the vertical thermal profile cools sufficiently to see
all snow. This transition to all snow could happen as early as late
morning for the NWRN counties...and a bit later across the west.
Expect the rain/mix to snow transition to slowly shift east across
the Ozarks during the afternoon hrs. Further south...expect all rain
for most...if not all of this event. However...there will be some
potential for a brief wintry mix late this evening into the early
morning hrs on Mon before the precip exits.


...have bumped snowfall forecasts storm totals from 1 to
4 inches...to 3 to 6 inches for Boone and Newton counties...with
locally higher amounts possible (some ensemble members are
suggesting amounts exceeding 6 inches for some locations). The
highest amounts look to remain SW of HRO in the SWRN portion of
Boone Co...and a good portion of Newton Co. As a result...have
upgraded the Winter Wx Adv to a Winter Storm Warning for these two
counties.


As for central AR...confidence remains fairly low for seeing any
impactful wintry wx. However...wouldn`t be surprised to see some
wintry precip in the form of a rain/sleet/snow mix...with maybe a
brief window of all snow right before the moisture exits to the
east. At this time though...temps should remain above freezing most
of the time...at least until the moisture exits and clouds clear by
sunrise Mon. As a result...no impacts are expected in central to
SRN/SERN AR...and with more isolated impacts for WRN AR.


&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight FOR Baxter-
Johnson-Marion-Pope-Searcy-Stone-Van Buren.


Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST
Monday FOR Cleburne-Fulton-Independence-Izard-Sharp.


Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight FOR Boone-Newton.


Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
tonight FOR Logan-Montgomery-Polk-Scott-Yell.

&&

$$


Aviation...JONES
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2020, 12:03:36 PM
This morning's NWS discussion from Little Rock brings back memories of frustration for me as a kid in central Arksansas glued to my little weather radio in the 1970's, praying for those slight southward shifts that never came.

I will never forget (forgive) the great Christmas day snowstorm of 1975 ... NW Arkansas picked up over a foot while we sat in 33F rain all day.

Congratulations to that corner of the state ... it really has been a long time since a setup like this occurred for them.

[Edited for brevity]

888
FXUS64 KLZK 131736
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1136 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
[...]

...Over NWRN/WRN portions of the CWA...precip may start off a wintry
mix in the morning due to the moisture falling into dry air near the
SFC before the vertical thermal profile cools sufficiently to see
all snow. This transition to all snow could happen as early as late
morning for the NWRN counties...and a bit later across the west.
Expect the rain/mix to snow transition to slowly shift east across
the Ozarks during the afternoon hrs. Further south...expect all rain
for most...if not all of this event. However...there will be some
potential for a brief wintry mix late this evening into the early
morning hrs on Mon before the precip exits.


...have bumped snowfall forecasts storm totals from 1 to
4 inches...to 3 to 6 inches for Boone and Newton counties...with
locally higher amounts possible (some ensemble members are
suggesting amounts exceeding 6 inches for some locations). The
highest amounts look to remain SW of HRO in the SWRN portion of
Boone Co...and a good portion of Newton Co. As a result...have
upgraded the Winter Wx Adv to a Winter Storm Warning for these two
counties.


As for central AR...confidence remains fairly low for seeing any
impactful wintry wx. However...wouldn`t be surprised to see some
wintry precip in the form of a rain/sleet/snow mix...with maybe a
brief window of all snow right before the moisture exits to the
east. At this time though...temps should remain above freezing most
of the time...at least until the moisture exits and clouds clear by
sunrise Mon. As a result...no impacts are expected in central to
SRN/SERN AR...and with more isolated impacts for WRN AR.


&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight FOR Baxter-
Johnson-Marion-Pope-Searcy-Stone-Van Buren.


Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST
Monday FOR Cleburne-Fulton-Independence-Izard-Sharp.


Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight FOR Boone-Newton.


Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
tonight FOR Logan-Montgomery-Polk-Scott-Yell.

&&

$$


Aviation...JONES

yeah i posted that earlier, hopefully it means better things to come for us down the road.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clint on December 13, 2020, 12:18:31 PM
Snowing in Eureka Springs Arkansas today. One of my favorite towns in the Ozarks.

(https://i.imgur.com/qdgvUPn.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 13, 2020, 01:14:05 PM
one thing that drives me nuts is the fact that in fayetville arkansas it is currently 35 with snow.....here in TN if it is 31, half the time it is still sleet or rain
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 13, 2020, 01:21:52 PM
one thing that drives me nuts is the fact that in fayetville arkansas it is currently 35 with snow.....here in TN if it is 31, half the time it is still sleet or rain
Fayetteville is getting shafted. Rain and 34. Itís snowing just to their north in Springdale though. Itís not far from over there too.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 13, 2020, 01:57:35 PM
I will be shocked if we get anything besides cold rain.   :-\
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clint on December 13, 2020, 03:00:26 PM
The 19Z RAP looks better for NW Tennessee.

(https://i.imgur.com/PZZU0sm.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/A2QHtwL.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 13, 2020, 03:44:32 PM
Euro, NAM 3k, HRRR all looking decent for west and mid tn.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 13, 2020, 05:54:30 PM
Great picture, Clint.

Maaaaaaybe I'll be pleasantly surprised. The mesoscale models are showing some heavy rates of the wet, white stuff for my area.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 13, 2020, 06:07:55 PM
That was just a nice quake here in Dyer county. Shook the house. 2.7 I think
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on December 13, 2020, 07:36:41 PM
Work is slow this week. If the pandemic didnít exist, I would seriously consider flying to NYC or Boston for this storm. Just canít risk it before seeing family for the holidays. Iíve always wanted to stay in a big east coast city for a noríeaster.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 13, 2020, 08:12:47 PM
Work is slow this week. If the pandemic didnít exist, I would seriously consider flying to NYC or Boston for this storm. Just canít risk it before seeing family for the holidays. Iíve always wanted to stay in a big east coast city for a noríeaster.

I live vicariously through my family in Jersey during nor'easters :) pics of 12-20 inches of snow come to me quite often from them

I was a kid during one up there YEARS ago, will never forget the sound of the wind snow up to the first floor windowsills from the drifts :), well over 20 years ago for me
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 14, 2020, 12:16:13 AM
Showing snow on radar in montgomery county, but I got a cold rain and at 38 degrees.Edited at 1:45 central time we have snow mixing with rain, still about 75 percent rain but it's trying to change over.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 14, 2020, 08:00:32 AM
 ::panic:: ::panic:: ::panic::


 ::bagoverhead::


(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020121406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 14, 2020, 08:09:38 AM
 ::rofl:: ^ Man, that would be so 2020 to have a Christmas Eve to Christmas Day blizzard in the Tennessee Valley.

No- it would be more 2020 to show a blizzard 5 days out, only for a severe outbreak when Christmas arrives.  ::doh::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 14, 2020, 08:49:56 AM
one thing that drives me nuts is the fact that in fayetville arkansas it is currently 35 with snow.....here in TN if it is 31, half the time it is still sleet or rain

I got 2" last year when it was 34 degrees the whole time.  >:D
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2020, 08:50:28 AM
::panic:: ::panic:: ::panic::


 ::bagoverhead::


(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020121406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png)
that there would shut the forum down lol...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 14, 2020, 09:06:09 AM
um I would like the LOW to be a little farther S/W :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2020, 09:53:26 AM
um I would like the LOW to be a little farther S/W :)
northwest  trend for the win lol...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 14, 2020, 10:47:42 AM
::rofl:: ^ Man, that would be so 2020 to have a Christmas Eve to Christmas Day blizzard in the Tennessee Valley.

No- it would be more 2020 to show a blizzard 5 days out, only for a severe outbreak when Christmas arrives.  ::doh::

Perfect!  Good excuse to stay home and not spread the virus.  ;)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 14, 2020, 12:36:34 PM
Yíall are behind. I told yíall a week ago about this snow we are getting Christmas.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 14, 2020, 07:27:05 PM
checked the forecast for the trenton NJ area ( my old home 25 years ago) expecting 9-15 inches of snow wed....lucky people LOL
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 14, 2020, 08:04:37 PM
The NAO actually looks to go and stay negative for the 2nd half of an actual winter month.

When did that happen?   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 14, 2020, 08:07:06 PM
If we can weaken the Polar Vortex then the cold air will be coming our way due to a -NAO and at least neutral to positive PNA signal that will keep ridging in the Western USA.

We may be about ready to have our shot at the 2-4 week winter window (maybe more if we are lucky) I have been talking about happening for months now.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 14, 2020, 08:07:35 PM
checked the forecast for the trenton NJ area ( my old home 25 years ago) expecting 9-15 inches of snow wed....lucky people LOL

That would send this place into utter chaos. Can you imagine how empty the shelves would be if we were expecting 1 foot or more of snow? People down here couldn't handle it.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 14, 2020, 08:17:22 PM
That would send this place into utter chaos. Can you imagine how empty the shelves would be if we were expecting 1 foot or more of snow? People down here couldn't handle it.

That Jan 2010 storm was like that here in my area, shelves bare and really for good reason....with 9 inches of snow here and a little layer of ice on top we couldnt move for 4 days being in the county with no tdot help lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2020, 08:17:28 PM
That would send this place into utter chaos. Can you imagine how empty the shelves would be if we were expecting 1 foot or more of snow? People down here couldn't handle it.
i got 13 inches on february 28th 2009, it was amazing with thunder snow. but it melted in two days cause it was nearing 70 couple days later
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 14, 2020, 11:29:31 PM
That Jan 2010 storm was like that here in my area, shelves bare and really for good reason....with 9 inches of snow here and a little layer of ice on top we couldnt move for 4 days being in the county with no tdot help lol

Well stores are already out of TP, so I hope you have some old newspaper around. About all its good for anyway.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 15, 2020, 08:41:18 AM
ahhhhh to be in NYC at Christmas time with a huge snowfall.....Central Park with a big blanket of snow, the Rockefeller tree Ö.. there is something magical about it when it snows in NYC in December, I have been there for it before during Christmas time and I have to say it is amazing....walking past macy's in the snow and ice skating, Hopefully the beauty of the snowfall will help lift peoples spirits up that way
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 15, 2020, 08:49:42 AM
ahhhhh to be in NYC at Christmas time with a huge snowfall.....Central Park with a big blanket of snow, the Rockefeller tree Ö.. there is something magical about it when it snows in NYC in December, I have been there for it before during Christmas time and I have to say it is amazing....walking past macy's in the snow and ice skating, Hopefully the beauty of the snowfall will help lift peoples spirits up that way
little walk through Central Park better watch your back.  Waiting get robbed there is what that park is good for now. My friend from Brooklyn was in marines with me we still keep in touch.  Itís sad
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on December 15, 2020, 08:56:39 AM
Yíall are behind. I told yíall a week ago about this snow we are getting Christmas.

I haven't forgotten what you said, mainly because I need someone to blame when my hopes get crushed  ;)

But for real, I hope you're right.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 15, 2020, 09:00:43 AM
little walk through Central Park better watch your back.  Waiting get robbed there is what that park is good for now. My friend from Brooklyn was in marines with me we still keep in touch.  Itís sad

well you have to know where to go in central park lol that's true ...and for sure once sun starts to set get out! lol but it is still beautiful bruceÖ.horse drawn sleigh rides in the snow at Christmas time in the park is a wonderful thing :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 15, 2020, 10:33:17 AM
NY today is much safer than it was back in the 80s.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 15, 2020, 10:37:07 AM
NY today is much safer than it was back in the 80s.

But not as safe as it was in the early 2000's. I used to feel comfortable in Manhattan at 3am. Not so much now but it was a hellhole in the 70's and a good chunk of the 80's.

If the 3k NAM is right, most of the I-95 Corridor is going to see way more sleet than snow.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 15, 2020, 10:58:20 AM
little walk through Central Park better watch your back.  Waiting get robbed there is what that park is good for now. My friend from Brooklyn was in marines with me we still keep in touch.  Itís sad

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 15, 2020, 11:05:15 AM
(Attachment Link)
no where is safe in New York City bro now...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 15, 2020, 11:06:33 AM
NY today is much safer than it was back in the 80s.

Truth I went and visited again in 98 and 2002 , both times was a good experience, it all depends on where you are at in the boroughs
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Scot on December 15, 2020, 11:21:16 AM
I like at least the potential showing up for Christmas Eve and Day on the 12z GFS.  Any possibility that time of year is amazing!!


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 15, 2020, 11:35:51 AM
look at west central ok showing out this year with snowfall
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on December 15, 2020, 11:46:52 AM
(Attachment Link)

This is exactly what I was thinking.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 15, 2020, 11:49:14 AM
This is exactly what I was thinking.

only snl fans will understand the meaning of that meme and how perfectly it was posted LOL.....there's one if every group, but bruce is alright in my book :)
NYC central park is beautiful when it snows....it's a fact, Jersey and NYC get a lot of crap and some of it is deserved but its still where I was born and was a little kid so it's sentimental to me :)
I could mention a lot about areas of Nashville and Memphis that are pretty rough but I wont lol :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 15, 2020, 11:55:17 AM
Latest HRR putting down a little surprise dusting to an inch tonight from Memphis to the TN River. We will see.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 15, 2020, 11:55:35 AM
only snl fans will understand the meaning of that meme and how perfectly it was posted LOL.....there's one if every group, but bruce is alright in my book :)
NYC central park is beautiful when it snows....it's a fact, Jersey and NYC get a lot of crap and some of it is deserved but its still where I was born and was a little kid so it's sentimental to me :)
I could mention a lot about areas of Nashville and Memphis that are pretty rough but I wont lol :)
yeah go over to orange mounds in Memphis... tell me your experience on that lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 15, 2020, 11:56:17 AM
(Attachment Link)

Good ole Debbie!   ::)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 15, 2020, 11:57:01 AM
Latest HRR putting down a little surprise dusting to an inch tonight from Memphis to the TN River. We will see.
lets reel this one in curt...  we need some snow man
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 15, 2020, 12:27:36 PM
lets reel this one in curt...  we need some snow man

would be a nice little surprise for some wouldn't it :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 15, 2020, 01:30:22 PM
Hey maybe we can get some minor accums out of this system

The HRRR in typical HRRR fashion wants to dust my backyard
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 15, 2020, 02:08:49 PM
Euro keeps showing a nice little artic blast coming around Christmas time.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 15, 2020, 02:32:30 PM
I am interested to see if a few counties may get blizzard warned in north central jersey and near NYC....talking gusts up to 50-55 mph in some places....I bet some places will get that sustained 35 mph needed and may verify as a blizzard
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 15, 2020, 02:58:22 PM
The heavy snow axis in the mid Atlantic and NE keeps getting pushed further and further to the NW. the 3k Nam has almost snow for DC, and much more sleet for Philly and NYC.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 15, 2020, 03:03:17 PM
I noticed that. That has to be insanely frustrating for those inside the D.C. snow hole.  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on December 15, 2020, 03:09:02 PM
The current radar trends south of Little Rock are interesting at least. Some very light precip breaking out that HRRR hasn't really caught onto. Not sure it's significant...but maybe worth watching.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 15, 2020, 03:24:19 PM
@Dyersburg Weather,

Re: White Christmas, check out this AccuWeather map

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 15, 2020, 03:28:36 PM
@Dyersburg Weather,

Re: White Christmas, check out this AccuWeather map

(Attachment Link)
so close ...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 15, 2020, 03:32:35 PM
The current radar trends south of Little Rock are interesting at least. Some very light precip breaking out that HRRR hasn't really caught onto. Not sure it's significant...but maybe worth watching.

Temps are not cold enough for snow??
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 15, 2020, 03:34:09 PM
@Dyersburg Weather,

Re: White Christmas, check out this AccuWeather map

(Attachment Link)

Nice to dream isn't it, I would be beyond happy !
At this point I would just like a traditional old fashioned Mid-TN winter with what used to be the average of 9-10 inches of snow per season :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on December 15, 2020, 03:34:54 PM
Par for the course for 2020:
https://www.chattanoogan.com/2020/12/15/419998/2020-Is-Officially-The-Wettest-Year.aspx (https://www.chattanoogan.com/2020/12/15/419998/2020-Is-Officially-The-Wettest-Year.aspx)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 15, 2020, 07:23:32 PM
Can anyone in West TN verify the frozen precip on the radar?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 15, 2020, 07:24:46 PM
Can anyone in West TN verify the frozen precip on the radar?
A birdie told me there was a sleet/snow mix in the Memphis area.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Ultra mag 1971 on December 15, 2020, 07:38:01 PM
Can anyone in West TN verify the frozen precip on the radar?
yes I can it was snowing a bit ago
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 15, 2020, 07:38:48 PM
Can anyone in West TN verify the frozen precip on the radar?
We had a round of snow come through. It was pretty lame.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 15, 2020, 07:59:49 PM
Can anyone in West TN verify the frozen precip on the radar?
currently got a cold 36 rain here thus far
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Volduff64 on December 15, 2020, 08:26:35 PM
Where is spring creek? Do they have a zip
Code?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 15, 2020, 08:48:21 PM
Where is spring creek? Do they have a zip
Code?
yeah it has its own zip code, small town community 15 miles north of jackson, bout 10 miles north of i 40.... madison county
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Volduff64 on December 15, 2020, 08:56:16 PM
Thanks that is really close to Medina. Some friends of mine the Pages are from there. Just wanted to know where your readings were coming in from
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 15, 2020, 09:07:50 PM
yet another classic 36 degree cold rain in tennessee
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 15, 2020, 09:43:02 PM
Wonder what Dyer is up too, haven't heard from him in a while. ::popcorn:
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 15, 2020, 10:07:16 PM
Thanks that is really close to Medina. Some friends of mine the Pages are from there. Just wanted to know where your readings were coming in from
im bout 5 miles from Medina
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 15, 2020, 10:56:50 PM
Wow 0z gfs tonite dropping hammer artic air around Christmas  .
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 15, 2020, 10:59:22 PM
Merry Christmas...from the 00z GFS

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201216/f05830211f39a836bf425fe94dedd647.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201216/91db1bbb41bf6e3f1c384ce953178f79.jpg)

And 18 hrs later (check out Knoxville above, then below)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201216/531b08f8f744bc95864ef14e41f82219.jpg)


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 15, 2020, 11:14:58 PM
According to that, colder in Tampa than Boston on Christmas.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 16, 2020, 05:52:04 AM
Harrisburg, PA to State College, PA area expecting 2Ē-3Ē PER HOUR later today and tonight. Sheesh what an intense NoríEaster!


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 16, 2020, 07:01:01 AM
Harrisburg, PA to State College, PA area expecting 2Ē-3Ē PER HOUR later today and tonight. Sheesh what an intense NoríEaster!


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awsome. Back in January 1985 we got 2  to 3 inch rates per hour. It was amazing 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 16, 2020, 07:58:28 AM
Man talk about D.C. getting the shaft. That sucks.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 16, 2020, 08:33:57 AM
As of now on the 15 day forecast I am not seeing much in the way of arctic air around Xmas? Looks like 2-3 days of temps like this week in the upper 30s and low 40s then back to the 50s after xmas.  Thats for west TN.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 16, 2020, 08:36:55 AM
As of now on the 15 day forecast I am not seeing much in the way of arctic air around Xmas? Looks like 2-3 days of temps like this week in the upper 30s and low 40s then back to the 50s after xmas.  Thats for west TN.
if the 0z gfs is correct... highs will struggle get out of the 20s day or two.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 16, 2020, 09:18:27 AM
if the 0z gfs is correct... highs will struggle get out of the 20s day or two.

0z Euro agrees. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 16, 2020, 09:22:17 AM
We'll know about 24 hours ahead of time. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 16, 2020, 10:57:18 AM
nor'easters are strange things....depending on track they take 30 miles can mean the difference in getting blasted with gusty wind with cold rain and getting a foot + of snow....the jersey shore will basically get solid rain while just northwest by about 30 miles near new Brunswick and Newark and NYC will get around a foot plus
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 16, 2020, 11:16:44 AM
nor'easters are strange things....depending on track they take 30 miles can mean the difference in getting blasted with gusty wind with cold rain and getting a foot + of snow....the jersey shore will basically get solid rain while just northwest by about 30 miles near new Brunswick and Newark and NYC will get around a foot plus

What was your favorite Nor'easter, gcbama?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 16, 2020, 12:03:37 PM
What was your favorite Nor'easter, gcbama?

lol well I was only a kid but I do remember one when I was little would have been between 88 and 91 of around a 10 inch plus type of snow, but I remember the WIND more than anything made big drifts up to bottom of windowsills , I also remember one around thanksgiving time idk if it was a nor'easter type storm but we had a good amount on thanksgiving :) .

By my parents have pics of the 70's nor'easters that were huge ! and of course I missed the 96 blizzard by just a few years dangit lol

That's the thing about winter up there it really is not much colder than here in TN at all , it just lasts MUCH longer, usually by mid October it is getting really cold and lasts through mid april to almost may
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 16, 2020, 12:27:36 PM
lol well I was only a kid but I do remember one when I was little would have been between 88 and 91 of around a 10 inch plus type of snow, but I remember the WIND more than anything made big drifts up to bottom of windowsills , I also remember one around thanksgiving time idk if it was a nor'easter type storm but we had a good amount on thanksgiving :) .

By my parents have pics of the 70's nor'easters that were huge ! and of course I missed the 96 blizzard by just a few years dangit lol

That's the thing about winter up there it really is not much colder than here in TN at all , it just lasts MUCH longer, usually by mid October it is getting really cold and lasts through mid april to almost may

in 2010 my home county of ocean county NJ had a town get 36 inches in that nor'easter in December Ö.. even they were crippled up there with all the equipment.

My favorite NJ snow though was 2002...after living in TN for many years we visited for chirstmas and on Christmas day it started snowing around 2pm , we ended up with about 7 -8 inches of beautiful powder :). Then went to NYC the next day all streets completely clear but snow was everywhere else and it was beautiful in central park( idc what bruce says LOL) people taking sleigh rides , and ice skating it was awesome but GOSH the wind through the canyons of buildings actually hurt !
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 16, 2020, 12:43:20 PM
in 2010 my home county of ocean county NJ had a town get 36 inches in that nor'easter in December Ö.. even they were crippled up there with all the equipment.

My favorite NJ snow though was 2002...after living in TN for many years we visited for chirstmas and on Christmas day it started snowing around 2pm , we ended up with about 7 -8 inches of beautiful powder :). Then went to NYC the next day all streets completely clear but snow was everywhere else and it was beautiful in central park( idc what bruce says LOL) people taking sleigh rides , and ice skating it was awesome but GOSH the wind through the canyons of buildings actually hurt !
I canít remember what year the smowmageddon happened where everyone from DC up the eastern seaboard got hammered with multiple storms. Iím pretty sure it was within the last 10 years.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 16, 2020, 12:45:19 PM
Dyer still holding you to that Christmas prediction. If anyone can nail it, itís you


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 16, 2020, 12:47:15 PM
I canít remember what year the smowmageddon happened where everyone from DC up the eastern seaboard got hammered with multiple storms. Iím pretty sure it was within the last 10 years.


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2013-14 here is NJ snow total from that year
https://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/NJ-Snow-Totals-FINAL-2013-14.png

you know you had a crazy year when the LOW end on the totals is around 40 inches lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JHart on December 16, 2020, 01:08:50 PM
lol well I was only a kid but I do remember one when I was little would have been between 88 and 91 of around a 10 inch plus type of snow, but I remember the WIND more than anything made big drifts up to bottom of windowsills , I also remember one around thanksgiving time idk if it was a nor'easter type storm but we had a good amount on thanksgiving :) .

It was 1990 ... I was there for Thanksgiving visiting my sister who was doing an internship for Axciom.  She was living in a condo in a town called Redbank I believe.  I watched it snow all night long, and then we went to the shore the next day and looked at the waves pressing up against the snow.  That is still the most flakeage I have ever seen from a single storm. 

I  was particularly impressed by the fact that weather forecasters predicted when, where, and how much snow would fall like making such a prediction was no big deal... and it wasn't.

I also remember that on the flight home, the stewardesses ran out of snacks before they got to me.  I must have given them a Baby Yoda look because I ended up with a muffin from first class.  I still feel special.

Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 16, 2020, 01:13:15 PM
It was 1990 ... I was there for Thanksgiving visiting my sister who was doing an internship for Axciom.  She was living in a condo in a town called Redbank I believe.  I watched it snow all night long, and then we went to the shore the next day and looked at the waves pressing up against the snow.  That is still the most flakeage I have ever seen from a single storm. 

I  was particularly impressed by the fact that weather forecasters predicted when, where, and how much snow would fall like making such a prediction was no big deal... and it wasn't.

Redbank was just about 15 miles from where i used to live in lakewood :) real close to the jersey shore....then we went to trenton....jersey shore with snow around is such a weird sight to see but cool!
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 16, 2020, 01:30:56 PM
Dyer still holding you to that Christmas prediction. If anyone can nail it, itís you


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Stock up on essentials. Jim Beam , cigarettes, ect.  >:D
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 16, 2020, 01:53:01 PM
the western edge of this storm is very much overperforming Ö. even Pitt looking like they will get around 8 inches out of this storm based on the trends, some quite heavy returns even still into eastern ohio
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 16, 2020, 01:54:35 PM
I canít remember what year the smowmageddon happened where everyone from DC up the eastern seaboard got hammered with multiple storms. Iím pretty sure it was within the last 10 years.


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I believe '09-10 is what you're referring to. Obama famously called it the "snowmageddon" winter, though he didn't coin the term.

'14-15 was Boston's knockout winter, particularly in January and February of that year.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 16, 2020, 02:14:43 PM
I believe '09-10 is what you're referring to. Obama famously called it the "snowmageddon" winter, though he didn't coin the term.

'14-15 was Boston's knockout winter, particularly in January and February of that year.

2013-14 was insane as well, as I posted the map earlier all areas of NJ that year saw 40+ inches of snow that season
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 16, 2020, 03:41:25 PM
oh to be in north jersey or nyc,,,,look at the radar returns in central NJ heading north , I will never see snow that heavy in my lifetime here
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 16, 2020, 03:54:36 PM
It does sound nice. I may drop by Paulie's for rigatoni and watch the snow fall.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 16, 2020, 04:11:24 PM
oh to have a gulf Low to go with the Christmas eve front :(
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 16, 2020, 04:51:53 PM
Seeing a disturbing trend in the Great Plains westward. 

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif)

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/)

Drought seems to be taking over the west, and it's spreading eastward into the Plains.  Little relief is forecast over the next two weeks. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Coach B on December 16, 2020, 08:07:42 PM
Seeing a few stray flurries out there tonight. Wasn't expecting that.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 16, 2020, 08:09:27 PM
I have 32 degrees and a frozen drizzle at my place.

Check out the NYC street cam:

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/fifthave/?cam=nyc5th_str
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 16, 2020, 10:50:36 PM
Just a every now and then flurry falling here earlier. You have to really be looking to even notice. ::rofl::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Coach B on December 17, 2020, 07:35:10 AM
00Z Canadian with a special delivery for Tennessee on Christmas. I'm getting old, can't figure out how to post screenshots.

Euro and GFS have some potential as well. All three give some white stuff, but get there in different ways. With the cold blast, I'd put better than average odds on getting something out of it.  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 17, 2020, 07:36:34 AM
00Z Canadian with a special delivery for Tennessee on Christmas. I'm getting old, can't figure out how to post screenshots.
yeah seen cmc. Nice hit for west middle Tennessee for sure and most eastern
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 17, 2020, 07:40:29 AM
0z Euro and 6z GFS with some frozen stuff on Christmas Eve but its transient.  I'm not buying it yet.  Anybody got the ensembles?  Curious about the agreement. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 17, 2020, 07:42:25 AM
The freezing drizzle, or whatever you want to call it, made for a beautiful sunrise this morning when the red sun matched the horizon. Everything was lightly glazed in ice. Nice and wintry. Temps down to 25F.

Regarding our potential Christmas surprise, I'm glad the GFS has the cold-chasing-moisture and the CMC has its own version.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 17, 2020, 08:57:52 AM
yeah seen cmc. Nice hit for west middle Tennessee for sure and most eastern

I put a lot of stock in James Spann when it comes to a week out type of forecast.....he says if you want snow on Christmas day looks like you have to be north of ohio river.....no one can tell, but there will be a system somewhere that looks for certain
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 17, 2020, 09:07:24 AM
I put a lot of stock in James Spann when it comes to a week out type of forecast.....he says if you want snow on Christmas day looks like you have to be north of ohio river.....no one can tell, but there will be a system somewhere that looks for certain
seems very plausible , if you wanting accumulating snowfall for Christmas...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 17, 2020, 09:14:09 AM
Guess it might be possible to get a quick shot of snow maybe but temps look to be in upper 40s low 50s right after xmas.  Unless I am totally missing something I am not seeing anything really cold.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 17, 2020, 09:14:47 AM
0z Euro and 6z GFS with some frozen stuff on Christmas Eve but its transient.  I'm not buying it yet.  Anybody got the ensembles?  Curious about the agreement.
Last night euro control - which is part of the euro ensemble did indeed have a Christmas Eve and day snow event for most of the state.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 17, 2020, 09:26:28 AM
my general rule is idc about snow unless it is a 3+ inch system BUT that changes for Christmas eve and Christmas day....I am perfectly fine with just having some flurries or brief snow shower on those days :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 17, 2020, 09:30:26 AM
my general rule is idc about snow unless it is a 3+ inch system BUT that changes for Christmas eve and Christmas day....I am perfectly fine with just having some flurries or brief snow shower on those days :)

Not gonna lie, last years sunny and almost 70 for a week around xmas was awesome also.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 17, 2020, 09:52:44 AM
Not gonna lie, last years sunny and almost 70 for a week around xmas was awesome also.

it is well documented that I believe in Christmas and New Years being cold....no chance I can get in Christmas spirit if it is warm lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on December 17, 2020, 10:00:38 AM
We've had light snow flurries almost all morning here.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 17, 2020, 10:19:17 AM
OK, 12z GFS, I see ya.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 17, 2020, 10:47:38 AM
Dyersburg Weather, you are THE MAN if you get this right.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 17, 2020, 11:14:10 AM
OK, 12z GFS, I see ya.   ::coffee::

what do we see? :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 17, 2020, 11:23:13 AM
what do we see? :)

Meh.  Just some wild-@$$ rumors of snow showers on Christmas Eve/Day. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 17, 2020, 11:30:03 AM
Letís end 2020 with a blizzard


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 17, 2020, 11:53:34 AM
Meh.  Just some wild-@$$ rumors of snow showers on Christmas Eve/Day.

make it happen :) lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 17, 2020, 11:55:42 AM
Hopefully this is showing up in another 7 days
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on December 17, 2020, 11:58:40 AM
Letís end 2020 with a blizzard


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That implies something good could come out of 2020 lol, and in the clutch on top of that. Don't hold your breath hahaha
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 17, 2020, 12:13:45 PM
That implies something good could come out of 2020 lol, and in the clutch on top of that. Don't hold your breath hahaha

Not if it's a massive blizzard that knocks out power for days followed by record cold
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 17, 2020, 12:18:31 PM
That implies something good could come out of 2020 lol, and in the clutch on top of that. Don't hold your breath hahaha
12z Canadian was a full blown ice storm followed an inch or two of sleet and snow west and middle. Yuck.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 17, 2020, 12:23:10 PM
That implies something good could come out of 2020 lol, and in the clutch on top of that. Don't hold your breath hahaha
be nice end year on good winter event kind like December 98...  then bout 3 weeks after change gears like we did end January 99 wouldnít Kevin? Lol talking bout going from dull weather to action filled
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on December 17, 2020, 12:25:10 PM
12z Canadian was a full blown ice storm followed an inch or two of sleet and snow west and middle. Yuck.

No thanks lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on December 17, 2020, 12:27:48 PM
Can someone post a picture of the maps right now the long range is showing. It will change 20 times but it would be fun to look at right now


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 17, 2020, 01:31:17 PM
Hey guys at least we got something to watch for in the next week leading up to Christmas. At least it is looking more and more like it will feel like winter on Christmas. I like the chances of at least some of our forum members to see snow flying sometimes on or around Christmas. I sure would love to see a forum wide hit, it was a Christmas Snow of 69 in Clarksville when I was 5 years old that got me hooked. I like our chances. ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 17, 2020, 01:35:02 PM
How rare is a White Christmas?

Years since records have been kept in Nashville with 1" or more of snow on the ground on Dec. 25:

1897
1962
1963
1969
2010


Recent years w/ a trace: 2002, 1995, 1992, 1989
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 17, 2020, 01:43:59 PM
How rare is a White Christmas?

Years since records have been kept in Nashville with 1" or more of snow on the ground on Dec. 25:

1897
1962
1963
1969
2010


Recent years w/ a trace: 2002, 1995, 1992, 1989

95 I believe was more than a trace unless they counted most of what fell as sleet with a light snow covering. Whatever it was, I've never seen anything like it in my 42 years. It froze solid after it fell, had a couple days below freezing after. It was like walking on solid ice, even on grassy surfaces. Made for some wild sledding.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 17, 2020, 01:47:28 PM
Nobody:

12z Euro: Y'all some gulliable-@$$ fools thinking its gonna snow around Christmas.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 17, 2020, 01:49:12 PM
That implies something good could come out of 2020 lol, and in the clutch on top of that. Don't hold your breath hahaha
No crippling blizzard that leads to devastation. If Bruce can do it, so can I
I do say it in jest.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Coach B on December 17, 2020, 02:30:52 PM
95 I believe was more than a trace unless they counted most of what fell as sleet with a light snow covering. Whatever it was, I've never seen anything like it in my 42 years. It froze solid after it fell, had a couple days below freezing after. It was like walking on solid ice, even on grassy surfaces. Made for some wild sledding.

1998 had to be close to an inch as well and its not even on their list.  ::pondering::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 17, 2020, 02:40:35 PM
How rare is a White Christmas?

Years since records have been kept in Nashville with 1" or more of snow on the ground on Dec. 25:

1897
1962
1963
1969
2010


Recent years w/ a trace: 2002, 1995, 1992, 1989
In 2004 we had a major sleet storm on the 22-23rd timeframe and a very cold through Christmas Day. It didn't snow or sleet on Christmas eve or day but we had a good 5 inches of sleet on everything including the roads the entire week. So I count it as a white christmas also, it was cloudy most of that christmas day as well. It qualified as a white christmas for me. LOL!
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 17, 2020, 02:43:53 PM
Observed a few light snow showers early this afternoon.  Didn't expect, so it was a nice surprise.  Otherwise, been a very cold, dark December day here. Good day for an adult beverage by the gas log fire. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 17, 2020, 03:44:41 PM
1998 had to be close to an inch as well and its not even on their list.  ::pondering::

Yeah, trying to remember if it was 95 or 98 that I wrote about regarding the solid ice. It may have been 98.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 17, 2020, 03:53:13 PM
Yeah, trying to remember if it was 95 or 98 that I wrote about regarding the solid ice. It may have been 98.

98 for sure, had a solid inch of freezing rain ice here in lewis county Christmas week
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 17, 2020, 04:16:00 PM
Nobody:

12z Euro: Y'all some gulliable-@$$ fools thinking its gonna snow around Christmas.
Euro can kiss my redneck a$$. Itís gonna snow Christmas.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: angrypug on December 17, 2020, 04:29:32 PM
This may not have counted for a white Christmas, but Christmas Eve 2017 we had a band of mod. to heavy snow come through Cookeville around 9pm and gave a quick dusting. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on December 17, 2020, 07:54:11 PM
This may not have counted for a white Christmas, but Christmas Eve 2017 we had a band of mod. to heavy snow come through Cookeville around 9pm and gave a quick dusting. 
Iíd count it. Without 2010, that amount of snow wouldíve amazed me on Christmas. 2010 was magical though. My favorite event of my lifetime (yes, more than the superstorm). It was modeled as a 33 degree rain up to a few hours before onset, then the NAM sniffed out a last minute phase that put us in the heavy snow for several hours. Perfect timing too. Started snowing right before sunrise and snowed almost all day.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 17, 2020, 10:25:50 PM
GFS better stop trippin'....
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 17, 2020, 10:32:36 PM
GFS better stop trippin'....

You beat me to it. I was coming here to post that it's still messing with us.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 18, 2020, 06:50:11 AM
Euro teasing East Tn for Christmas. Good news is both GFS and Euro are attempting to give us a White Christmas.
Weíre entering the 5-7 day range where they start getting their act a little more together. Things are still somewhat volatile with each update, but at least thereís some potential there. I just pray a clown map doesnt pop today. Because you know a 6-7 day out clown map for Christmas will go viral on FB . Euro almost gave us one last night (hello West VA). I see lots of coffee/late nights on the horizon lol.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 18, 2020, 07:27:43 AM
GFS better stop trippin'....
thats about all its doing is trippin and being wrong most time. lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2020, 07:53:09 AM
thats about all its doing is trippin and being wrong most time. lol

So, the guy who can't figure out how to use the paste function on his computer is criticizing advanced computer models?  ::)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 18, 2020, 08:14:03 AM
thats about all its doing is trippin and being wrong most time. lol

to me at best it would be a cold chasing rain thing anyway....but would be great to see a few flakes fly on Christmas eve or Christmas day :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 18, 2020, 08:14:26 AM
So, the guy who can't figure out how to use the paste function on his computer is criticizing advanced computer models?  ::)
yes sirsss  i is.  >:D
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2020, 08:16:14 AM
yes sirsss  i is.  >:D

Bruce you're a treat
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 18, 2020, 08:16:22 AM
This will be fun.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 18, 2020, 08:23:05 AM
This will be fun.
yes it will, particular second half january i see that... we all knew winter was going have good chance being front loaded. ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 18, 2020, 08:25:14 AM
Bruce you're a treat
all bout having little fun in here when the weather is so dull and boring like its been ::sleeping::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 18, 2020, 08:25:44 AM
yes it will, particular second half january i see that... we all knew winter was going have good chance being front loaded. ::blowtorch::

I wouldnt even say it has been front loaded lol.  Pretty lame so far.  Transient weather pattern right now.  Many days of wind 0-5 mph, same temp here as it is 300 miles north of here.  No snow north of here, snow line not even close.  Duck season sucks. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 18, 2020, 08:28:27 AM
I wouldnt even say it has been front loaded lol.  Pretty lame so far.  Transient weather pattern right now.  Many days of wind 0-5 mph, same temp here as it is 300 miles north of here.  No snow north of here, snow line not even close.  Duck season sucks.
just no true artic air coming down to drive the birds down our way, my friends say its been terrible season thus far
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 18, 2020, 08:30:02 AM
Worst than last year which is saying something
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 18, 2020, 08:31:20 AM
I wouldnt even say it has been front loaded lol.  Pretty lame so far.  Transient weather pattern right now.  Many days of wind 0-5 mph, same temp here as it is 300 miles north of here.  No snow north of here, snow line not even close.  Duck season sucks.

front loaded isn't even close to describing this winter lol....just recently had temps in the 70's, but technically we aren't even in winter yet lol wink wink
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Crockett on December 18, 2020, 09:38:12 AM
Both the GFS and the Euro showing a white Christmas for the plateau. What is this, 2020?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2020, 09:51:39 AM
Both the GFS and the Euro showing a white Christmas for the plateau. What is this, 2020?

And it's not that far out now, either. This is forecast for the night of Dec 23 to the morning of Dec 24. Anything can happen in 12 hours, let alone 6 days, but we're within a reasonable time frame now. What we know is we have a polar airmass coming into the Tennessee Valley right on Christmas Eve. What is always in question is when it meets the moisture available. Cold-chasing-moisture never produces big snows, but it can be nice for squeezing out a couple of inches at our latitude.

Timing is key. So far, areas to the west may be left out, but if the moisture can be stalled along the Apps then the eastern half of the state may be in business.

We'll see.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 18, 2020, 10:04:31 AM
even ohx discussion is mentioning a change to snow Ö. hmmmm
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2020, 10:12:02 AM
even ohx discussion is mentioning a change to snow Ö. hmmmm

From OHX:

Quote
The first part of next week will see temps above normal, as an upper
ridge passes, and eventually weakens early Wednesday as our next
system approaches. This system more potent than our Saturday system
and is expected to bring more widespread rain to the mid-state
Wednesday, and more so Wednesday night as a cold front/deep
moisture axis passes. This system also packing some very cold air,
of which we will likely see either mixed pcpn or all snow before
ending Thursday in many areas. This system also bringing a
secondary deep upper trough axis over the region on Friday, and
while moisture will be limited, some flurries/light snow showers
not out of the question.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 18, 2020, 10:15:38 AM
our classic colder temps chasing the moisture...  know how this ends. lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 18, 2020, 10:16:46 AM
From OHX:

Yeah, there's a secondary impulse that swings in post-FROPA on Christmas Day that has the best shot at something frozen.  I was going to post some maps this morning but got sidetracked.  I hope to be able to do that at some point today.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2020, 10:22:27 AM
Yeah, there's a secondary impulse that swings in post-FROPA on Christmas Day that has the best shot at something frozen.  I was going to post some maps this morning but got sidetracked.  I hope to be able to do that at some point today.

Noticed that too. It was less robust on the 12Z run of the GFS than the 6Z, but it'll fluctuate, of course.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 18, 2020, 10:26:49 AM
12z GFS says Merry Christmas lol


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 18, 2020, 10:31:43 AM
our classic colder temps chasing the moisture...  know how this ends. lol

I am not asking for much though on this one bruceÖ.just to have a few flakes fly on Christmas eve or Christmas day would be just fine for me , this is the ONLY time I am ok with it not accumulating is on Christmas time :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 18, 2020, 10:36:53 AM
12z GFS has been fairly dang consistent with this general idea.  It lost the secondary impulse on the 12z, save for the mountains.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020121812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_23.png)

Whatever happens will happen quick.  There's a tremendous amount of CAA behind the front.  Temps go from 45 ----> 24 in 12 hours.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 18, 2020, 11:12:52 AM
wondering when a thread might be started :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 18, 2020, 11:15:45 AM
Kuchera for 12z GFS shows 4.5" for BNA, 9" for the plateau and almost 9" for Knox. 3 hour skews on COD are interesting. The column cools dramatically.

We have historically seen these rain to snow events where the cold air comes in quicker and gives us a nice event but not really in the last 20 years, as our resident Debbie Downer has already alluded to, we almost always see cold chasing moisture these days. Plus, it is the GFS, so the amounts are for entertainment purposes only do not get emotionally invested (who am I kidding, it's snow on Christmas). #Disclaimer
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2020, 11:18:25 AM
 ::faint::  Wow.  12z GFS really trying to give some white Christmas hope.

After enduring a pretty strange and dark year, we all could use one.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 18, 2020, 11:19:31 AM
Well. Didnít take long, but maps starting to circulate FB lol.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2020, 11:22:58 AM
While any forecast is fantasy--and will change--I see it as hope for an inch or two.  That's good enough for me on Christmas morning.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 18, 2020, 11:27:13 AM
While any forecast is fantasy--and will change--I see it as hope for an inch or two.  That's good enough for me on Christmas morning.   

agreed expectations should really be for possible dusting half inch maybe but that is plenty for me on Christmas day.....any other time I want a lot more lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 18, 2020, 11:27:30 AM
There ya go, now ask yourself, have you been naughty or nice this year...

(https://i.ibb.co/cQYntKj/12z-GFSKuch12-18-20.jpg)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 18, 2020, 11:32:07 AM
There ya go, now ask yourself, have you been naughty or nice this year...

(https://i.ibb.co/cQYntKj/12z-GFSKuch12-18-20.jpg)

well that's not happening lol....would be nice for tn though lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 18, 2020, 11:35:25 AM
You know it's winter when we have to break out the COBB data...

12z GFS
BNA - 3.1"
XRW (Hopkinsville/Ft Campbell) - RA/SN
MCH (Manchester) - 11.1" under 17-23:1 ratios  ::wow:: ::wow::
KCSV (Crossville) - 10.7"
KCHA (Chattanooga) - 3.1" w/.5 ZR
O#K (Oak Ridge) - 9.4"
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2020, 11:39:29 AM
I'd say the upcoming Euro run will garner plenty of attention. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 18, 2020, 11:44:08 AM
I'd say the upcoming Euro run will garner plenty of attention.

Probably for the wrong reasons.   ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Huntermc18 on December 18, 2020, 11:46:32 AM
There ya go, now ask yourself, have you been naughty or nice this year...

(https://i.ibb.co/cQYntKj/12z-GFSKuch12-18-20.jpg)

West TN is relly getting the screw job here.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 18, 2020, 11:46:38 AM
CMC was a icy mix for middle TN.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 18, 2020, 11:48:23 AM
West TN is relly getting the screw job here.  ::shrug::

Easy to tell from the map where the GFS thinks the cold air will catch up to enough moisture to have fun with. Don't despair, it's likely most of us will be in the same boat with you before it is over.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 18, 2020, 11:52:53 AM
Easy to tell from the map where the GFS thinks the cold air will catch up to enough moisture to have fun with. Don't despair, it's likely most of us will be in the same boat with you before it is over.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/KGY78vaNYCha5zL1yK/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2020, 11:56:24 AM
West TN is relly getting the screw job here.  ::shrug::

Do yourself a favor and don't stock your emotions in model runs from five to seven days in advance of a winter storm. What's probable is we will all be sitting on the bench with you except for the highest peaks of the Apps.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 18, 2020, 12:00:05 PM
Do yourself a favor and don't stock your emotions in model runs from five to seven days in advance of a winter storm. What's probable is we will all be sitting on the bench with you except for the highest peaks of the Apps.

I do think flurries will fly but that might be it
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2020, 12:38:37 PM
Probably for the wrong reasons.   ::bagoverhead::

Looks like.  Euro smacks GFS, and says "what snow?"
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on December 18, 2020, 12:46:41 PM
Good ol' Mr. Positive Euro
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BALLPARK on December 18, 2020, 12:47:45 PM
Yeah euro says party is over until next run.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2020, 12:51:13 PM
Don't sweat it. Yesterday's 12Z ECMWF had zero snow for the whole state. It then had a huge hit for the eastern third on the 0Z, only to follow up with minor accumulations on today's run for the higher elevations. It'll go back and forth.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2020, 01:05:13 PM
In this type of event (cold chasing the precious moisture), the Euro is the more likely outcome, but it's still nearly a week away.  Bound to be more changes for the good and the bad until it get's closer.  I'd say the reality lies somewhere between them.  But what do I know?  ::scratch::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 18, 2020, 01:12:23 PM
GFS Ensembles aren't bad. They certainly aren't saying the op run is crazy. Will be interesting to see how many if any Euro members resemble the GFS.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Coach B on December 18, 2020, 01:40:05 PM
GFS Ensembles aren't bad. They certainly aren't saying the op run is crazy. Will be interesting to see how many if any Euro members resemble the GFS.

Looks like several of them have something resembling the GFS.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 18, 2020, 02:19:13 PM
Yíall sure are stressing out over nothing.  8)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 18, 2020, 02:41:50 PM
Yíall sure are stressing out over nothing.  8)

lol dyer :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: AdamLewis on December 18, 2020, 02:42:46 PM
There ya go, now ask yourself, have you been naughty or nice this year...

(https://i.ibb.co/cQYntKj/12z-GFSKuch12-18-20.jpg)

What programs/websites does everyone use to come up with these maps?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 18, 2020, 02:47:40 PM
What programs/websites does everyone use to come up with these maps?

Main ones here lately are tropicaltidbits.com for GFS, HRRR, NAM and pivotalweather.com for hi-res Euro stuff.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 18, 2020, 03:47:41 PM
What programs/websites does everyone use to come up with these maps?

Twisterdata.org and Tropicaltidbits are free. I use personally use weatherbell
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2020, 03:50:29 PM
All of those are good. I also like weather.us, though it is not as user-friendly as tropicaltidbits or pivotalweather.

The most mobile-friendly site is tropical tidbits.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 18, 2020, 04:00:16 PM
Yíall sure are stressing out over nothing.  8)
No doubt, White Christmas is coming to town! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2020, 04:13:48 PM
What programs/websites does everyone use to come up with these maps?

Another good website:

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2020, 04:18:05 PM
18Z GFS gives Euro the finger for the earlier slap down and says, "Here's your snow."



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2020, 04:25:42 PM
(https://media3.giphy.com/media/5zh6SdgSPo6u8LUCzZ/giphy.gif)

18Z GFS? Let's get freaky.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 18, 2020, 04:27:16 PM
18Z GFS gives Euro the finger for the earlier slap down and says, "Here's your snow."

would be nice, I think right now the idea is some sort of changeover could occur around tn river and points east how much? who knows
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 18, 2020, 04:32:35 PM
would be nice, I think right now the idea is some sort of changeover could occur around tn river and points east how much? who knows

I don't put confidence in any solution right now.  Looking for trends.  The Euro seems to go back and forth a bit more than the GFS.  Does that mean the GFS is correct?  No.  It's the GFS.  It's basically a waiting game.  Maybe by Monday we'll have a better idea what might happen.  Until then, have a good weekend, and don't worry about it!  ;)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 18, 2020, 04:34:08 PM
The GFS keeps getting better. And to remain so consistent this far out worries me. Iím waiting for the rug to be yanked out from under us by Tuesday


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 18, 2020, 04:47:17 PM
I don't put confidence in any solution right now.  Looking for trends.  The Euro seems to go back and forth a bit more than the GFS.  Does that mean the GFS is correct?  No.  It's the GFS.  It's basically a waiting game.  Maybe by Monday we'll have a better idea what might happen.  Until then, have a good weekend, and don't worry about it!  ;)

but it has been somewhat of a trend is all I am saying, not a solution but it has been on the books for 3 days now little hints, just enough to keep me intrigued
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Crockett on December 18, 2020, 04:50:04 PM
Taking the 18z GFS and cashing out now. Merry Christmas and see y'all week after next.  >:D
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 18, 2020, 06:43:42 PM
Just pulled the 18z GFS COBB data for Manchester - 2.4" of SN and 1.45 ZR.  Yeah, no.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 18, 2020, 07:34:33 PM
Just pulled the 18z GFS COBB data for Manchester - 2.4" of SN and 1.45 ZR.  Yeah, no.

Oh yeah!

(https://i.makeagif.com/media/10-13-2015/eUpMOe.gif) 





(Kidding)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 18, 2020, 08:37:05 PM
Oh yeah!

(http://width=320 height=240]https://i.makeagif.com/media/10-13-2015/eUpMOe.gif) 

Major lert. storm brewing in area west. Going to get cold and infusion with moisture max per nao and -pna . With positive RTO we will have some RNA turn into DNA then something will happen in 4 months , saw it, gona happen. Oh and its going to snow Christmas




Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 18, 2020, 10:06:01 PM
Oh yeah!

(http://width=320 height=240]https://i.makeagif.com/media/10-13-2015/eUpMOe.gif) 

Major lert. storm brewing in area west. Going to get cold and infusion with moisture max per nao and -pna . With positive RTO we will have some RNA turn into DNA then something will happen in 4 months , saw it, gona happen. Oh and its going to snow Christmas
Yep!  That sounds about right!  ;D
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 18, 2020, 10:11:41 PM
0z GFS holds serve for Christmas Eve.  The GFS may be wrong, but my God, is it going out in a blaze of glory. Just wildly consistent.

Looks like W TN gets the shaft.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 18, 2020, 10:20:53 PM
0z GFS holds serve for Christmas Eve.  The GFS may be wrong, but my God, is it going out in a blaze of glory. Just wildly consistent.

Looks like W TN gets the shaft.

Yep which is surprising bc normally we do well while yíall suffer. I donít care about snow in TN right now. We need a heavy band of snow over north central MO and IL something awful.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 18, 2020, 10:46:15 PM
The cmc has most western middle Tennessee 2 inches snow. But itís cmc
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 18, 2020, 10:47:01 PM
0z GEM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201219/ff3b72d0f0db76dacd6b0c6882a8a086.jpg)

0z GFS
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201219/be93e8b34f6034713b7bb5e6dc2352ea.jpg)


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: MemphisJDJ on December 19, 2020, 12:33:26 AM
0z Euro gives the shaft to the entire state as it puts down a wide swath of snow in the mid Mississippi River valley. Total yuck.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 19, 2020, 06:26:59 AM
Iíll say...the GFS is definitely persistent with its solution. Hard to believe its been so consistent at 5-7 days out. Euro still wavering.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on December 19, 2020, 06:43:24 AM
Forecast for Dburg, hope yíall are going to be colder if you want snow more than couple hours.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2020, 06:58:10 AM
Forecast for Dburg, hope yíall are going to be colder if you want snow more than couple hours.
till the euro hops on board, i would teeter the expectations for sure. ;)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 19, 2020, 07:26:19 AM
till the euro hops on board, i would teeter the expectations for sure. ;)
Teeter? Ok.

The euro deterministic and control are basically a St.Louis and Chicago snowstorm as the ULL support falls in behind the LP and moves NE. This actually makes more sense than a cold chasing moisture snow event.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2020, 07:33:00 AM
Teeter? Ok.

The euro deterministic and control are basically a St.Louis and Chicago snowstorm as the ULL support falls in behind the LP and moves NE. This actually makes more sense than a cold chasing moisture snow event.
pretty confident st.louis towards the chicago region will do well this week as support grows for those locations. but getting a decent snow pack there would help us for fuftrue systems hopefully down the line
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 19, 2020, 08:38:27 AM
till the euro hops on board, i would teeter the expectations for sure. ;)

I think I get it.  It's a teeter-totter forecast.

(https://foter.com/photos/276/metal-teeter-totter.jpg?s=pi)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2020, 08:42:28 AM
I think I get it.  It's a teeter-totter forecast.

(https://foter.com/photos/276/metal-teeter-totter.jpg?s=pi)
should explain the weather models there Jaycee... up and down lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 19, 2020, 10:07:31 AM
12z GFS still a go.  Not sure I've ever seen the GFS latch onto something with such ferocity.  I'm starting to think the solution its presenting is a ghost. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 19, 2020, 10:13:43 AM
12z GFS still a go.  Not sure I've ever seen the GFS latch onto something with such ferocity.  I'm starting to think the solution its presenting is a ghost.

The Euro's solution with the low presented near the Lakes makes more sense. What we could wish for is backside development if the low is not placed too far north. If that pans out (not likely), that would be a better snow producer for the whole state instead of the frontal passage chasing the moisture.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 19, 2020, 10:21:57 AM
The Euro's solution with the low presented near the Lakes makes more sense. What we could wish for is backside development if the low is not placed too far north. If that pans out (not likely), that would be a better snow producer for the whole state instead of the frontal passage chasing the moisture.


Yes my thoughts are Ö...The Euro's solution with the low presented near the Lakes makes more sense.wish for is backside development . If that pans out would be a better snow producer whole state instead frontal passage chasing moisture. See what I did there? ::rofl::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 19, 2020, 10:41:10 AM
12z GFS still a go.  Not sure I've ever seen the GFS latch onto something with such ferocity.  I'm starting to think the solution its presenting is a ghost.

The GFS is much more busy with additional energy coming down the back. Multiple pieces to watch per GFS and Euro. 12Z Tuesday until we see our main show really on the shore. GFS has been consistent with but I am watching what it does around the Tuesday timeframe out West. Just watch the overall H5 pattern, hard to really sniff out what thermals are going to be and how close the 925mb freezing levels follow 850's....
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2020, 10:45:46 AM
fwiw.  the cmc holding steady also, both the cmc and gfs been fairly consistent with the christmas setup... come to think about, the euro been very consistent also of showing nothing for us... lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 19, 2020, 10:50:29 AM
fwiw.  the cmc holding steady also, both the cmc and gfs been fairly consistent with the christmas setup... come to think about, the euro been very consistent also of showing nothing for us... lol

Excellent observation Bruce. What are you thoughts for the up and coming storm?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 19, 2020, 10:56:58 AM
fwiw.  the cmc holding steady also, both the cmc and gfs been fairly consistent with the christmas setup... come to think about, the euro been very consistent also of showing nothing for us... lol

Just yesterday you posted this about the GFS:

"thats about all its doing is trippin and being wrong most time. lol"

Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 19, 2020, 10:58:55 AM
Amazed at the consistency of the GFS.  It will either be an epic win, or an epic fail.   

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2020, 10:59:56 AM
Just yesterday you posted this about the GFS:

"thats about all its doing is trippin and being wrong most time. lol"
but its been very consistent and cant deny that...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 19, 2020, 11:03:14 AM
fwiw.  the cmc holding steady also, both the cmc and gfs been fairly consistent with the christmas setup... come to think about, the euro been very consistent also of showing nothing for us... lol
The 12z CMC did change some. None of the main band of rain changes to any winter precip. It does have snow showers state wide in Christmas Eve.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2020, 11:05:46 AM
The 12z CMC did change some. None of the main band of rain changes to any winter precip. It does have snow showers state wide in Christmas Eve.
still got swath of 1 to 2 inch snow same areas west towards middle Tennessee
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 19, 2020, 11:06:49 AM
The Euro's solution with the low presented near the Lakes makes more sense. What we could wish for is backside development if the low is not placed too far north. If that pans out (not likely), that would be a better snow producer for the whole state instead of the frontal passage chasing the moisture.

Depending on moisture return the Euro solution could feature severe weather although it likely wouldn't exist that much further north than I-20. Overall the Euro solution is not too different than what happened with a storm around Christmas in 2009.  That storm ended up setting us up for a great pattern for the rest of the winter, so here's to having this storm do the same for us.     
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 19, 2020, 11:06:56 AM
still got swath of 1 to 2 inch snow same areas west towards middle Tennessee
For now...but it may be migrating towards the euro. Hopefully the euro reverses course at noon- but what tells me it doesnít .
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 19, 2020, 11:27:55 AM
The 12z CMC did change some. None of the main band of rain changes to any winter precip. It does have snow showers state wide in Christmas Eve.

The CMC took a step to the Euro. I actually do not mind that solution at all. Cold chasing moisture is hard to benefit from.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 19, 2020, 11:44:53 AM
The UKMet now took a step towards the GFS with north of I-40 and east of I-65 being the winners.   

Model madness continues. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 19, 2020, 12:28:23 PM
Well, well, well.

The Euro actually stepped toward the GFS.

No significant accumulations, but it's a start.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 19, 2020, 12:37:40 PM
Well, well, well.

The Euro actually stepped toward the GFS.

No significant accumulations, but it's a start.

Sure did, albeit baby steps.  Still think its the right solution but will happily take the GFS.  Need run-to-run consistency now.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 19, 2020, 01:26:16 PM
Doesnt appear sampling has occurred yet. Typically, these consistent solutions change drastically within a couple updates after sampling. Im skeptical until probably 12z tomorrow.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 19, 2020, 01:39:17 PM
Well, well, well.

The Euro actually stepped toward the GFS.

No significant accumulations, but it's a start.

The Euro's teeter-tottering on this system makes me put a tiny sprinkling of Christmas hope in the GFS.  But I've been burned by both, so I'm not biting until maybe Monday.   Even so, the snow-lovin' kid in me is starting to get a bit excited.  I really wish he would grow up.   ::shaking_finger::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 19, 2020, 01:56:25 PM
GFS ensembles showing decent support for the op.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 19, 2020, 02:14:12 PM
Euro control back up statewide snow showers on Christmas Eve. Cold and a few flurries is a win in my book.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2020, 02:21:23 PM
Euro control back up statewide snow showers on Christmas Eve. Cold and a few flurries is a win in my book.
yeah. For Christmas. Itís a win in this part country
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 19, 2020, 02:42:56 PM
I have been forum following for 14 years and I know that the Day 3-5 timeframe is typically the heartbreaker.

With that being said on Tuesday you can probably get excited one way or another, but for once I am glad that it will at least be cold on Christmas. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 19, 2020, 04:07:07 PM
18z GFS holds.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2020, 04:18:57 PM
18z GFS holds.   ::coffee::
totally amazing... its just like we are seeing the same ole ::rofl:: run of the gfs last 3 days now lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 19, 2020, 04:21:30 PM
I should have started the thread a week ago.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 19, 2020, 04:23:05 PM
Either the GFS is stuck in a casual loop, or it's crazy like a fox.  I guess come Christmas we'll know which one. 

I did notice it's showing far less amounts in the eastern valley than any earlier run.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 19, 2020, 04:28:58 PM
The consistency is amazing. GFS last 12 consecutive runs for 18z 12-24.
 
Edit: Having issues posting the GIF.
I highly suggest looking at last 12 runs for 18z 12-24. Impressive

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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 19, 2020, 04:33:06 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201219/be496dbab98abaa4bf5ff82fe6dd0938.gif)
Here is last 12 updates from GFS for 18z 12-24. The consistency has been amazing.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2020, 04:36:55 PM
I should have started the thread a week ago.
start it dyer,,, you called it over week ago lol... hopefully euro can keep on getting better
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 19, 2020, 04:39:44 PM
I should have started the thread a week ago.
Crank it out Dyer! ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 19, 2020, 05:21:23 PM
Crank it out Dyer! ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
No! Wait until after 12z tomorrow. Lol. Let the models have time to sample this first.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 19, 2020, 05:25:22 PM
OHX mentions nearly zero forcing behind the front.  Without that, there's no way the GFS solution pans out.  Going to be an interesting few days, thats for sure.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 19, 2020, 05:42:34 PM
OHX don't think much about it, oh well they are throwing down the White Christmas buzzkill. Here's to keeping hope alive! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn::  ::cold::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 19, 2020, 05:45:21 PM
OHX don't think much about it, oh well they are throwing down the White Christmas buzzkill. Here's to keeping hope alive! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn::  ::cold::  ::snowman::

OHX is always too conservative on every event, severe weather or snow....yesterday they mentioned it, today they don't cause they don't know and nobody does this far out....by monday we will know if there is a real chance at this
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 19, 2020, 05:58:41 PM
I cannot blame any local meteorologist for being conservative. There is no reason to hype the public for a cold-chasing-moisture event, as those systems typically produce so little snow. If it does snow, this will not be a big hitter except for folks in the highest elevations.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 19, 2020, 09:01:24 PM
I really think we are looking at a similar situation as the 12/1 storm at this point which is still 4-5 days away.  Just enough forcing and orographic lift allow for higher elevations to at least get an advisory level while everyone else is at least treated to colder air and some snowflakes flying.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 19, 2020, 09:42:44 PM
I cannot blame any local meteorologist for being conservative. There is no reason to hype the public for a cold-chasing-moisture event, as those systems typically produce so little snow. If it does snow, this will not be a big hitter except for folks in the highest elevations.

What's worse than a storm disappearing 5 days out?  A storm disappearing the day it's supposed to happen after all the anticipation.  That's the real buzzkill.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 19, 2020, 09:44:56 PM
No! Wait until after 12z tomorrow. Lol. Let the models have time to sample this first.


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Take a look at 500mb map before rambling on about 12Z sampling for tomorrow.  The system we are monitoring does not land till around 00Z-12Z Tuesday.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 19, 2020, 10:06:05 PM
Finally starting to see a turn in the GFS.  0z still suggests frozen but has pulled off the craziness of the past few days.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 19, 2020, 10:18:35 PM
Finally starting to see a turn in the GFS.  0z still suggests frozen but has pulled off the craziness of the past few days.

Keeping a eye on the energy swinging around the back side. We are now starting to see h5 close off. Any of these upper level features could bring a period of snowfall if there is enough moisture left in the air. European popped a deformation zone up and the GFS is trying to do the same East of Nashville. CMC toys with this idea as well... Forecast is going to change quite a bit I have a feeling over the nest 48 hours, obviously.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 19, 2020, 10:20:13 PM
Finally starting to see a turn in the GFS.  0z still suggests frozen but has pulled off the craziness of the past few days.

It's shifting away from the possibility of the changeover from the moisture rushed in by the cold front and now developing some light snow showers behind it. The 00Z ICON has a similar solution. The 12Z CMC features this solution as well, so we'll see if we can add its 00Z solution to the crew.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 19, 2020, 10:21:41 PM
Keeping a eye on the energy swinging around the back side. We are now starting to see h5 close off. Any of these upper level features could bring a period of snowfall if there is enough moisture left in the air. European popped a deformation zone up and the GFS is trying to do the same East of Nashville. CMC toys with this idea as well... Forecast is going to change quite a bit I have a feeling over the nest 48 hours, obviously.

Sorry, man. I was typing my less-informed version of this right when you posted. Didn't mean to pretty much say the same thing.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 19, 2020, 10:25:55 PM
Sorry, man. I was typing my less-informed version of this right when you posted. Didn't mean to pretty much say the same thing.

No worries at all man, its your observation. I tend to agree.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 19, 2020, 10:33:15 PM
Great write-up from OHX this evening regarding the Wed/Thu system:

Quote
Then there is the much stronger weather system poised to impact
much of the Central and Eastern US Wednesday and Thursday. If one
were to look at model output verbatim, especially the GFS, they
may come to the conclusion that much of Middle Tennessee is under
the gun for accumulating snow on Christmas Eve. However, this
model output can be deceptive, and does not take into account
small-scale processes that could drive precipitation chances (or
lack thereof) behind the strong cold front that is progged to
sweep through our area some time Wednesday night or Thursday.
Looking at the forcing behind this front, there simply does not
appear to be the defined and prolonged source of lift that would
be required to produce any decent snowfall accumulations around
here.
That's not to say it won't snow at all, as very strong
frontogenetical forcing behind the front could certainly lead to a
band or two of light snow following frontal passage. But this
forcing will be moving very fast with the front itself and would
struggle to produce much more than a dusting.
It would take a
stronger surface wave riding up the boundary to produce much more
than this, which right now is not evident in any of the model
forecasts. Of course things could change, and the overall
evolution of this system is still quite a bit up in the air. But
for now it looks like a wet Wednesday and Thursday, then possibly
a few snowflakes before things turn colder heading into Christmas
Day.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=3&glossary=0 (https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=3&glossary=0)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 19, 2020, 11:10:11 PM
The gfs ensembles actually showed a slight increase in snow it seems. Either way still 5 days out, maybe we see some snow flying on christmas eve and christmas day. ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 19, 2020, 11:12:40 PM
I think we are going to see some snow showers. The models have been very consistent with it. It's Christmastime, and snow down here in December is a real treat.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 19, 2020, 11:18:28 PM
The gefs is better for most of the state
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 19, 2020, 11:30:43 PM
I think we are going to see some snow showers. The models have been very consistent with it. It's Christmastime, and snow down here in December is a real treat.

Which, I think, would suffice for most everybody.  Its Christmas.  Just seeing snow flitter through the air is gift enough.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 20, 2020, 12:08:29 AM
Which, I think, would suffice for most everybody.  Its Christmas.  Just seeing snow flitter through the air is gift enough.

Is the gift that keeps on giving clark
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 20, 2020, 12:53:10 AM
Euro is great news for East TN and much of Middle. It produces a low just east of the Apps after the front passes through. I like it!
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 20, 2020, 12:57:40 AM
Its like a lateral back into on comming traffic, now can we get to the otherwise.
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/vort500_z500/1608422400/1608876000-O8traiPJoZY.png)

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/rh700/1608422400/1608876000-X9lC8PYbDOU.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 20, 2020, 07:25:54 AM
OHX...

Quote
  Behind this passing front, significant cooling is expected on Thu, and especially Thu afternoon/evening as the closed upper low moves over the immediate vicinity. Thu afternoon, temps should be cool enough to see a changeover to a rain/snow mix across the northwest. Temps really plummet on Thu night and any linger pcpn likely to change to all snow. At this point however closed upper low will be moving to our east, and moisture will be limited. Thus we are not really setting up for significant snowfall. Thu night into early early Fri, the plateau could see an inch or so but elsewhere, trace amounts seem most probable. So some locations could have a dusting for Christmas morning.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 20, 2020, 08:17:12 AM
MRX this morning:

Quote
The GFS is
faster with the system than the ECMWF, but both bring the cold front
across the area between 18z Thursday and 0z Friday. Behind the
front, temperatures will quickly drop as very cold air advects into
the region with gusty NW winds. While differences exist with timing,
the GFS and ECMWF both indicate a southern vort max and favorable
jet dynamics producing a new surface low across the SE CONUS moving
NE along the front. This feature seems to be partially responsible
for the higher post-frontal precip across the forecast area in
recent model runs late Thursday and Thursday night.


Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 20, 2020, 10:33:58 AM
the gfs keeps trending in wrong direction if you want see even dusting. you see any flakes at all consider a win outside the higher elevations
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 20, 2020, 10:56:57 AM
Kuchera snow totals 12Z GFS.  Improved plateau eastward.

Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 20, 2020, 10:59:26 AM
Kuchera snow totals 12Z GFS.  Improved plateau eastward.
Would be a great time to be in the smokies.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 20, 2020, 11:09:24 AM
Would be a great time to be in the smokies.
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At this point, I would say the mountains will definitely have a white Christmas. 

I'm still not sold on the rest of us, but after several runs of decreasing snow amounts, the GFS has started trending back in other direction, at least for the plateau and eastern valley.  At the bare minimum, the GFS maintains middle and east TN will all see snow showers.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 20, 2020, 11:16:54 AM
GEFS mean snowfall through 12-26. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 20, 2020, 11:38:40 AM
I think the Northern Plateau (Cumberland County and points north) and of course anyone in East TN above 1,800 feet has a great chance above 55%.

Knoxville, Sevierville, and Morristown have a fighting chance probably between 25% and 50% and so do parts of the Eastern Highland Rim (Cookeville, Celina, Sparta).   

Everyone else is probably less than 25% but at least it isn't feeling like April.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 20, 2020, 12:12:28 PM
all i was ever even hoping for is just snow showers or flurries on eve or christmas day.....and that is still very possible, never thought we would get accumulations at all so i am not bothered at all by that, anybody hoping for accumulation by a cold chasing moisture event was really stretching there faith lol....but maybe somebody will get a half inch in mid tn somewhere
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 20, 2020, 01:21:32 PM
Euro took a definite step backwards.  Much less snow statewide.  Strangely, it even shows far less in the mountains.  Maybe around an inch or so on the plateau. 
Strange how the Euro trended toward the GFS, and the GFS trended toward the Euro for a time.  Now they both seem to be headed back toward their original solutions.  Yo-yo modeling makes for a forecaster's headache, I'm sure.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 20, 2020, 01:53:21 PM
Rain changing over to SN and the end. Dusting - 1/2 possible on the backside as it works it way to the Plateau where 1-2" would be possible in the higher elevations. 850-925 temps are pretty stacked with the surface obviously lagging behind. A step and look at another solution until we know where the Monday evenings systems comes ashore. I for one enjoy the spice during the xmas holiday :P Waking up to hot coco and watching snow flakes falling would be great, maybe a day too late but great. Not much more you can ask for xmas weather in TN.
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nashville/instant_ptype_3hr/1608465600/1608811200-DFujcA4Qh0I.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 20, 2020, 03:29:13 PM
Rain changing over to SN and the end. Dusting - 1/2 possible on the backside as it works it way to the Plateau where 1-2" would be possible in the higher elevations. 850-925 temps are pretty stacked with the surface obviously lagging behind. A step and look at another solution until we know where the Monday evenings systems comes ashore. I for one enjoy the spice during the xmas holiday :P Waking up to hot coco and watching snow flakes falling would be great, maybe a day too late but great. Not much more you can ask for xmas weather in TN.
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nashville/instant_ptype_3hr/1608465600/1608811200-DFujcA4Qh0I.png)

OHX
Quote
Colder air will quickly move in behind the front on Thursday and
could cause some lingering precipitation to mix with or change to
snow from west to east through the morning and early afternoon.
GFS remains rather aggressive with this post-frontal precipitation
and is thus producing snowfall amounts that are too high,
especially given the lack of deep moisture and a defined forcing
mechanism behind the front. Still, enough frontal forcing combined
with weak support aloft could support some light snow late
Wednesday into Thursday. If this were to occur (which still is
highly in question) any snowfall amounts would be a few tenths of
an inch at best. Another chance for light snowfall could come with
a secondary vort max late Thursday into Friday, particularly
across the Cumberland Plateau region. Will need to let models get
a better grasp on the eventual evolution of the main upper wave
before we can get too detailed on that though. Bottom line is
that Christmas Eve could end up with a few tenths of an inch of
snow, possibly even an inch in the higher elevations...but little
to no snow whatsoever is an equally possible outcome at this
point.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on December 20, 2020, 03:51:21 PM
GFS is also showing nuisance ZR next Sunday as the cold air is stubborn to retreat.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 20, 2020, 04:05:35 PM
Quote
Climatologically speaking,
such a deep trough should promote surface cyclogenesis somewhere
across the southeast or mid Atlantic during this time. The 20.00 and
20.12 suite of guidance is suggestive of this solution but again
there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding where this low sets up
and how strong the low will be. All of this will play an integral
role in how much moisture will be left over for potential wintry
precipitation. The official forecast as of this afternoon suggests
temperatures will fall behind the front late Thursday and into
Thursday night. Rain will change over to snow from west to east late
Thursday with light snow showers or flurries lingering across
northern portions of the forecast area through Friday. It is still
too early to forecast snow amounts with any amount of certainty.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 20, 2020, 04:17:14 PM
18z GFS

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 20, 2020, 06:26:27 PM


where is that from jaycee? :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 20, 2020, 07:26:13 PM
where is that from jaycee? :)

College of Dupage.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 20, 2020, 09:09:42 PM
where is that from jaycee? :)

Eric answered for me.  Good website, and user friendly. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 20, 2020, 10:29:24 PM
O0z GFS says, if that cat had nine lives, she just spent'em all.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 20, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
0z GFS continues to be a hit for East Tn. Obviously overdone on amounts (2Ē-6Ē).


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on December 21, 2020, 08:53:34 AM
0z GFS continues to be a hit for East Tn. Obviously overdone on amounts (2Ē-6Ē).


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I don't know about a "hit". Still looks like an event for elevated areas only. Even up into Kingsport is just a trace of accumulation, but JC gets a bit more. Basically nothing along I-75/I-81. Looks like a white Christmas for the Smokies though.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 21, 2020, 09:09:50 AM
I don't know about a "hit". Still looks like an event for elevated areas only. Even up into Kingsport is just a trace of accumulation, but JC gets a bit more. Basically nothing along I-75/I-81. Looks like a white Christmas for the Smokies though.
simply another high elevation event due to the lack of true artic air
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2020, 09:27:44 AM
6Z GFS through 12-26.  Note the small notch of little snow accumulation in far northeast TN.  That's probably caused by downsloping off of the Cumberland and Black Mountain ranges along the KY/VA border.

GFS does show other borderline events afterwards.  One appears near New Year's.  Looks like a quick shot of snow before turning to rain in TN. 

While nothing shown in modeling is hitting the "jackpot" currently, I'll take this pattern over anything we've had in the last 4 years.  At least it gives us something that's been in short supply the last few winters--hope. 

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2020, 09:35:42 AM
6Z GEFS mean is still robust for eastern areas. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 21, 2020, 09:35:54 AM

While nothing shown in modeling is hitting the "jackpot" currently, I'll take this pattern over anything we've had in the last 4 years.  At least it gives us something that's been in short supply the last few winters--hope.

idk seems like typical quick 2 day cold shots followed by warm ups to me? just hoping one of these cold shots we can get a good low pressure to our south on of these days :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2020, 09:39:17 AM
idk seems like typical quick 2 day cold shots followed by warm ups to me? just hoping one of these cold shots we can get a good low pressure to our south on of these days :)

That's a typical winter here.  Actually, this is atypical compared to the last 4 winters of torch on torch.   ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 21, 2020, 09:48:45 AM
That's a typical winter here.  Actually, this is atypical compared to the last 4 winters of torch on torch.   ::blowtorch::

I agree, past several season winter has been completely over by jan 31st it seems
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 21, 2020, 09:49:53 AM
I agree, past several season winter has been completely over by jan 31st it seems

The last two winters were over by the first week of December.  It is actually a joy to at least see some semblance of winter during actual winter.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 21, 2020, 09:51:49 AM
My early look at the models pretty much suggests a similar event to Dec 1st.

Areas that have some elevation will probably get at or very close to a solid advisory level event.  The Eastern Highland Rim and some places in East TN north of Knoxville may or may not also get involved.  Other than that it will be a cold Christmas and a victory compared to the 60s and 70s that have struck us 4 out of the last 6 years. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 21, 2020, 09:54:32 AM
simply another high elevation event due to the lack of true artic air

Yes because if there was true arctic air we will have snow. All this false "artic" air is the problem. Its just not cold enough to snow anywhere. No where is getting any snow
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on December 21, 2020, 09:57:55 AM
The event on December 1st was 2-3 inches around the Johnson City area. I am around 1,800 feet where I live in Johnson City. I would gladly take the 2-3 inches again. Time will tell


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 21, 2020, 10:05:21 AM
I will be happy even if it is just flurries on Christmas Eve.  I think I had windows open last Christmas.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2020, 10:07:50 AM
12Z GFS snow (Kuchera).  Posted 6Z earlier for comparison.  Definitely less on the plateau this round.  Heaviest snow along the TN/NC border, of course. 

Also, snow flurries/showers are pretty widespread over middle and eastern areas as the cold takes over and wrings out all the available moisture. 

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 21, 2020, 10:18:51 AM
12Z GFS snow (Kuchera).  Posted 6Z earlier for comparison.  Definitely less on the plateau this round.  Heaviest snow along the TN/NC border, of course. 

Also, snow flurries/showers are pretty widespread over middle and eastern areas as the cold takes over and wrings out all the available moisture.

I think snow flying early Friday morning will be a welcoming site for any on the board. The cold air is there, just not a part of the system. Anything extra that hand behind post frontal will change to snow. A 20-30 minute snow shower is hard to predict any hour out.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 21, 2020, 10:30:55 AM
12Z GFS shifts a lot of QPF back behind the 850 line this run. Its much more pronounced.. Pretty big changes from 00/06Z to now. 850's are also stacked up and ready to push through this run. Another look at the storm, similar outcome.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 21, 2020, 10:37:26 AM
When I was younger it seems like we had lots of events that would start out as rain but quickly or eventually change to snow. Many of them were good snows. Seems like these days the changeover happens at the very end or not at all. This is looking more and more like a east middle to east tn event. I do think the mountains are going to score. So far this year west and most of middle tn haven't been in a good spot even for these minor events. Until we get some real sustaining cold in the lower 48 we are going to be in the thread the needle position. I keep hearing that cold is coming in the long range and the PV is getting battered, I hope it comes to pass. Because I have a feeling it's January or bust. I do like how december has stayed on the cool side minus a few warm days and at least maybe Christmas will be cold. Maybe if I squint hard enough I will see a few flakes christmas eve. Rooting for everyone on the plateau. For my area I am looking toward January, any flakes for Christmas will be enjoyed stress free. I really hope January comes together for us in Tennessee. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2020, 10:40:26 AM
I think snow flying early Friday morning will be a welcoming site for any on the board. The cold air is there, just not a part of the system. Anything extra that hand behind post frontal will change to snow. A 20-30 minute snow shower is hard to predict any hour out.

For me in our part of the world a "white Christmas" is just getting snow to fall from the sky on that day.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 21, 2020, 10:44:35 AM
When I was younger it seems like we had lots of events that would start out as rain but quickly or eventually change to snow. Many of them were good snows. Seems like these days the changeover happens at the very end or not at all. This looks like a east middle to east tn event. I do think the mountains are going to score. So far this year west and most of middle tn haven't been in a good spot even for these minor events. Until we get some real sustaining cold in the lower 48 we are going to be in the thread the needle position. I keep hearing that cold is coming in the long range and the PV is getting battered, I hope it comes to pass. Because I have a feeling it's January or bust. I do like how december has stayed on the cool side minus a few warm days and at least maybe Christmas will be cold. Maybe if I squint hard enough I will see a few flakes christmas eve. Rooting for everyone on the plateau. For my area I am looking toward January, any flakes for Christmas will be enjoyed stress free. I really hope January comes together for us in Tennessee. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
great post snowman... your exactly right. The systems most would start out rain go to brief period sleet than just good ole snow with lots of heavy snow too . Then as the storm departed the artic express would come crashing down setting up for some nights of 0 to even below zero with a healthy snow packed ground to boot
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 21, 2020, 10:49:33 AM
When I was younger it seems like we had lots of events that would start out as rain but quickly or eventually change to snow. Many of them were good snows. Seems like these days the changeover happens at the very end or not at all. This is looking more and more like a east middle to east tn event. I do think the mountains are going to score. So far this year west and most of middle tn haven't been in a good spot even for these minor events. Until we get some real sustaining cold in the lower 48 we are going to be in the thread the needle position. I keep hearing that cold is coming in the long range and the PV is getting battered, I hope it comes to pass. Because I have a feeling it's January or bust. I do like how december has stayed on the cool side minus a few warm days and at least maybe Christmas will be cold. Maybe if I squint hard enough I will see a few flakes christmas eve. Rooting for everyone on the plateau. For my area I am looking toward January, any flakes for Christmas will be enjoyed stress free. I really hope January comes together for us in Tennessee. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

When is it not threading the needle here. We deal with what we are dealt, and its usually the same cards each year. When a Joker shows up in the deck we get snow. We just have a better chance when there are more in the deck. Thursday night gets into the teens here and Xmas barely over freezing....
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 21, 2020, 11:00:24 AM
SREF plumes aren't terrible for BNA. Then again, they ARE the SREF plumes so take it for what it is worth. But if you are looking to keep hope alive...there weren't many snowless members.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 21, 2020, 11:00:33 AM
great post snowman... your exactly right. The systems most would start out rain go to brief period sleet than just good ole snow with lots of heavy snow too . Then as the storm departed the artic express would come crashing down setting up for some nights of 0 to even below zero with a healthy snow packed ground to boot

Yep last time I had a successful rain change to snow event was march 2015 storm, and even then dry air came in quickly and only got about 3 inches, would have had at least 6 had the dry air not intruded .

As a kid some of my favorite nights in the 90's was waiting for the changeover to occur and see it in the porch lights and watch it for hours and wake up to a nice 4-5 inch snow blanket :), used to happen quite a bit back then....
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 21, 2020, 11:06:50 AM
12z NAM says don't worry about it.

(https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020122112/078/snod.us_ov.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 21, 2020, 11:14:28 AM
12z NAM says don't worry about it.

(https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020122112/078/snod.us_ov.png)

just gonna possibly see a few flurries or snow showers in my opinion, but for Christmas time that is still a nice possibility :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 11:17:29 AM
Initial accumulation forecast for Dec 24-25:

West TN to Middle TN, west of 65: Snow showers possible, no accumulation (add'l snow showers possible on Dec 25)
Middle TN, east of 65 to the Plateau: Dusting, locally higher
Plateau: Half inch to 1"; up to 2" with passing snow showers after additional changeover.
East TN Valley: Dusting to 0.5" from Chattanooga to Knoxville; 0.5-1" from Morristown to Tri-Cities
2000ft: 1-3"
3000ft: 2-4"
4000ft+: 4-6", locally up to 10" with orographic lift
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 21, 2020, 11:23:48 AM
When is it not threading the needle here. We deal with what we are dealt, and its usually the same cards each year. When a Joker shows up in the deck we get snow. We just have a better chance when there are more in the deck. Thursday night gets into the teens here and Xmas barely over freezing....
I was referring to when I was young in the 70's, we had many events that were not thread the needle. Forecasters actually predicted good snows 4-5 days out and it happened. We had bad or average winters then also but we had some great winters as well with many events. Even in the 60's when I was to little my parents told me about great winters. Then there was 71,74,76,77,78 and 85 to name a few. Many of them systems were big time winter systems and not thread the needle. I can also remember many times when we started out snow from the onset and it stuck on impact from the get go. That also seems so rare these days, usually even with a good snow it takes a bit to stick. It is pretty neat to see snow hit dry frozen ground and stick right off the bat. I think many on these boards would freak out if we had a winter like 76,78 or 85. They were awesome and they meant business. ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 21, 2020, 11:34:20 AM
I was referring to when I was young in the 70's, we had many events that were not thread the needle. Forecasters actually predicted good snows 4-5 days out and it happened. We had bad or average winters then also but we had some great winters as well with many events. Even in the 60's when I was to little my parents told me about great winters. Then there was 71,74,76,77,78 and 85 just too name a few. Many of them systems were big time winter systems and not thread the needle. I can also remember many times when we started out snow from the onset and it stuck on impact from the get go. That also seems so rare these days, usually even with a good snow it takes a bit to stick. It is pretty neat to see snow hit dry frozen ground and stick right off the bat. I think many on these boards would freak out if we had a winter like 76,78 or 85. They were awesome and they meant business. ::cold:: ::snowman::

best season I had recently I believe was the around 2010 2011 ish 3 events that came up through Mississippi got to events of 5 inches and another of 3 inches , most snow I remember in a season in my area in a long time, I do have pics of my grandma with about 8-10 inches and the back of the pic says 1988 :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 21, 2020, 12:13:34 PM
best season I had recently I believe was the around 2010 2011 ish 3 events that came up through Mississippi got to events of 5 inches and another of 3 inches , most snow I remember in a season in my area in a long time, I do have pics of my grandma with about 8-10 inches and the back of the pic says 1988 :)
In the winter of 76-77 we went on Christmas break Dec 19th and on the 4th of Jan we headed back to school. I was in the 6th grade. It started snowing that morning and by the time buses got to the schools they were told to stay and less than a hour later we were headed home. We didn't return to school till Feb 3rd. Snow never left the ground the entire month of January. It snowed every 4-5 days, at one point we had 10 inches of frozen snow you couldn't even make a print in it. We sled and played in snow the entire month. Ironically on the 4th of Feb we went to school and it started snowing again and we were sent home. We missed the next day and they announced if we missed one more day we wouldn't have to make any of it up as it would be declared a state of emergency. We never missed another day and had to go to school 4 saturdays straight for a half day. Luckily after I went to the first 3 my parents let me miss the 4th one because less and less kids were going. LOL! Great winter memories, my classmates still talk about it. Instead of snow day it was snow month! ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 12:28:40 PM
Euro told the NAM to go f*ck itself.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 21, 2020, 12:38:23 PM
Euro told the NAM to go f*ck itself.  ::snowman::

(https://media.giphy.com/media/kc0kqKNFu7v35gPkwB/giphy.gif)

Looked pretty dang similar to me.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 12:45:15 PM
Looked pretty dang similar to me.

12Z Euro has a pretty nice little event for NE TN. The 12Z NAM map you posted had nothing for the entire state.

[attachimg=1]

compared w/ 12z nam from your post:

[attachimg=2]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 21, 2020, 01:11:49 PM
12Z Euro has a pretty nice little event for NE TN. The 12Z NAM map you posted had nothing for the entire state.

(Attachment Link)

compared w/ 12z nam from your post:

(Attachment Link)

Shouldve been more clear.  Looked similar for Mid TN.  The Apps get plastered.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 01:20:53 PM
Shouldve been more clear.  Looked similar for Mid TN.  The Apps get plastered.

That's alright; yeah, we're not getting anything here, but we knew that to begin with. I think our best hope is some snow showers developing after the front passes through.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 01:29:22 PM
Good thing cd2play still isn't on this site.  ::)  Anyone remember him? He'd be raging at this whiff for Middle.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 21, 2020, 01:38:27 PM
Good thing cd2play still isn't on this site.  ::)  Anyone remember him? He'd be raging at this whiff for Middle.
yeah he is from Nashville... he is on over at southern wx forum
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 01:44:03 PM
yeah he is from Nashville... he is on over at southern wx forum

I used to lurk on here on high school and remember how grueling it was sifting through his "no snow" rants in 2014. Is he still like that now?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 21, 2020, 01:47:00 PM
Good thing cd2play still isn't on this site.  ::)  Anyone remember him? He'd be raging at this whiff for Middle.

While it stinks to be so close, this one i never expected anything more than maybe an hour or two of snow showers or flurries maybe on christmas eve, was never gonna be anything significant so for once my hopes were not up and i am not gonna rage LOL....cold chasing rain never works here anymore, but we have 6-8 weeks ahead of hoping something pans out :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 01:51:38 PM
While it stinks to be so close, this one i never expected anything more than maybe an hour or two of snow showers or flurries maybe on christmas eve, was never gonna be anything significant so for once my hopes were not up and i am not gonna rage LOL....cold chasing rain never works here anymore, but we have 6-8 weeks ahead of hoping something pans out :)

Oh, he would be typing post after post about how it will never snow here again  ::rofl::  It was a sight. Everything he posted was a meltdown about the lack of snow.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 21, 2020, 01:55:40 PM
Oh, he would be typing post after post about how it will never snow here again  ::rofl::  It was a sight. Everything he posted was a meltdown about the lack of snow.
There was another dude...Skillsweather that was the same way


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 21, 2020, 02:02:00 PM
Lol!  I remember him too.  I think several left us because we did not throw a tantrum every time it didnít snow.  No one can control Mother Nature, just a fact.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 02:03:09 PM
There was another dude...Skillsweather that was the same way


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Remember that night a couple years ago when I pissed him off and he posted a bunch of p*rno begging to be banned?

Yes, that happened  ;D
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 21, 2020, 02:09:40 PM
Oh, he would be typing post after post about how it will never snow here again  ::rofl::  It was a sight. Everything he posted was a meltdown about the lack of snow.

well I get upset when it is a system that looks to be a good one and then it doesn't work out lol....this one never was in that category hehe
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2020, 02:33:41 PM
In the winter of 76-77 we went on Christmas break Dec 19th and on the 4th of Jan we headed back to school. I was in the 6th grade. It started snowing that morning and by the time buses got to the schools they were told to stay and less than a hour later we were headed home. We didn't return to school till Feb 3rd. Snow never left the ground the entire month of January. It snowed every 4-5 days, at one point we had 10 inches of frozen snow you couldn't even make a print in it. We sled and played in snow the entire month. Ironically on the 4th of Feb we went to school and it started snowing again and we were sent home. We missed the next day and they announced if we missed one more day we wouldn't have to make any of it up as it would be declared a state of emergency. We never missed another day and had to go to school 4 saturdays straight for a half day. Luckily after I went to the first 3 my parents let me miss the 4th one because less and less kids were going. LOL! Great winter memories, my classmates still talk about it. Instead of snow day it was snow month! ::snowman::

'84-85 was that for me Snoman.  Missed 4 weeks straight.  I was in heaven.  ;D
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2020, 02:42:29 PM
Even though there won't be much snow on the ground with this event, snow showers will be abundant given the steep lapse rates associated with the deep, cold trough swinging through.  If you get under a good one, it will pour for a minute or three.  Considering that's a very rare thing these days, it's a win for Christmas in Tennessee.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 21, 2020, 02:48:09 PM
'84-85 was that for me Snoman.  Missed 4 weeks straight.  I was in heaven.  ;D

I remember back in the day just hoping to get a few snow days each winter. Meanwhile, today, kids are begging to go back to school because they are bored to tears.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2020, 02:51:10 PM
I remember back in the day just hoping to get a few snow days each winter. Meanwhile, today, kids are begging to go back to school because they are bored to tears.

Too much technology keeping the poor kid's brains on overdrive.  When all you have is 3 TV channels for entertainment, you FIND ways to not be bored.  ;)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 21, 2020, 02:59:46 PM
Is it the time steps that cause these accumulation jumps? Or what? Iíve noticed this before but never paid much attention. Just find it odd.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201221/90bc6f362208260b3cc1b5f2ca3bdb6a.jpg)


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 03:04:42 PM
The NAM is pretty unreliable beyond 48 to 60 hours.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 03:05:57 PM
I remember back in the day just hoping to get a few snow days each winter. Meanwhile, today, kids are begging to go back to school because they are bored to tears.

Their boredom could be helped if kids still read books for fun.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 21, 2020, 03:14:55 PM
Is it the time steps that cause these accumulation jumps? Or what? Iíve noticed this before but never paid much attention. Just find it odd.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201221/90bc6f362208260b3cc1b5f2ca3bdb6a.jpg)


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Maybe picking up on the convective nature of the snow showers behind the front.  Total guess, though.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2020, 04:48:41 PM
There will be an abundance of show showers.  "Additional waves of energy" could create a surprise for some here. 

Quote
The GFS and ECMWF do bring additional waves of energy into the area
with moisture residing in the DGZ and positive omega extending
through the DGZ. With such cold air aloft, decreased stability will
allow for the potential for snow showers Thursday night and into
Friday. I`m still not ready to discuss accumulation numbers at this
point, but the better chances of accumulating snow will be the
higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau, the Appalachians, and
portions of Southwest Virginia, and the northern valley. Gusty winds
from a strengthening post frontal pressure gradient will occur
across most of the area.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 21, 2020, 05:55:33 PM
OHX essentially stuck a fork in snow shower chances for everyone but some folks west of I-65, where the cold catches what moisture is left.  If those lobes of energy MRX speaks of rotates through i gotta believe some of the folks in the Plateau would see some snow showers.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2020, 06:31:59 PM
They don't even mention it for some reason.  It seems their discussion is only concerning the frontal precipitation, and the cold air does arrive too late to help much there.  But with so much cold air aloft, and steepening lapse rates, I would think there will be a good chance at least on the Plateau. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 21, 2020, 07:26:03 PM
to me this just simply looks DOA everybody. AT least christmas will be nice and chilly :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 08:55:14 PM
After it was acting up this morning, the Euro grabbed the NAM by its hair and said "who's your daddy?" Go figure, the 0Z NAM is in line with the 12Z Euro's solution. The key is it develops a low just to our east of the Apps, which produces some more snowfall for most of us.

It's still the NAM at 60+ hours, and restrictions do apply.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 21, 2020, 08:57:03 PM
to me this just simply looks DOA everybody. AT least christmas will be nice and chilly :)
Not Everybody. Us East Tn folk are still pretty much in this, for now.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 09:01:13 PM
to me this just simply looks DOA everybody. AT least christmas will be nice and chilly :)

I wouldn't say so. Nothing's certain. You and I won't see anything worth calling your grandmother about, but we're in play for Christmas Eve snow showers and even... gasp... a dusting. Not all is lost.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 10:12:01 PM
Oozie GFS is a better hit for East Tennessee.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 21, 2020, 10:19:03 PM
Oozie GFS is a better hit for East Tennessee.
NAM and GFS a little more robust as we get to inside 72 hrs out. Hope Euro follows suit.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on December 22, 2020, 06:12:02 AM
Christmas Eve into Christmas could be interesting per MRX

Quote
...Strong Storm System will Effect the Tennessee Valley and
Southern Appalachians Thursday and Christmas Day...

A strong storm system will move across the area Thursday and
Christmas Day. Moderate to heavy rain can be expected area-wide
for late Wednesday night and Thursday with Windy conditions
across the Mountains and Foothills of far east Tennessee.

The moderate to locally heavy rain may produce isolated runoff
problems and localized flooding.

Very cold air will build into the area on Thursday, and linger
through Friday night. Rain will change to snow Thursday afternoon
with a brief period of moderate to heavy snow possible, especially
across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Snow showers
will longer at least Friday morning.

Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible across northeast
Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and far east Tennessee Mountains.
For the Plateau, parts of the central valley, and southwest North
Carolina, snowfall of 1 inch is possible.

Travel late Thursday and Thursday night may become hazardous with
snow and ice covered roadways, especially across bridges and
overpasses.

The very cold airmass along wind breezy west to northwest winds
will produce dangerous wind chills from 5 below zero to 5 above
zero across the higher terrain for late Thursday through Friday
night.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the
latest updates on this situation.
 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 22, 2020, 07:15:47 AM
Euro is starting to see a winter threat for NYE now as well.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 22, 2020, 07:37:16 AM
As my username suggests.... it's snow time.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: NKnoxVol on December 22, 2020, 08:09:19 AM
Iím stunned MRX is saying up to an inch in the valley around Knoxville this far out. 2-4Ē in the higher elevations


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 22, 2020, 08:11:40 AM
I did all that I could to make it snow Christmas. Congrats to those who see flakes. Look on the bright side I at least made it cold. We could have had Bruce predicting tornados and 70 degrees.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 22, 2020, 08:13:45 AM
I did all that I could to make it snow Christmas. Congrats to those who see flakes. Look on the bright side I at least made it cold. We could have had Bruce predicting tornados and 70 degrees.
Hopefully this will open the gates for winter weather threats going into the new year and beyond.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 22, 2020, 08:14:12 AM
I did all that I could to make it snow Christmas. Congrats to those who see flakes. Look on the bright side I at least made it cold. We could have had Bruce predicting tornados and 70 degrees.
well I didnít cause I just didnít see it lol Dyer think your snow is going be bout week so late. Check out the 0z euro long range. Lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 22, 2020, 08:14:42 AM
well congrats to far east TN...looks like a real white Christmas chance over that way :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 22, 2020, 08:18:38 AM
6Z up from 0Z GFS from Plateau eastward.  Definitely trending in the right direction.  But is it correct?


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 22, 2020, 08:23:07 AM
Mean snowfall as seen by 6Z GEFS has definitely become more robust for eastern areas, but I'm not ready to pull the snow boots out until EURO run later today. 

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 22, 2020, 08:33:17 AM
Mean snowfall as seen by 6Z GEFS has definitely become more robust for eastern areas, but I'm not ready to pull the snow boots out until EURO run later today.

a cold chasing rain event showing significant accumulation as far south as alexander city alabama???
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on December 22, 2020, 08:41:19 AM
But is it correct?

(https://media4.giphy.com/media/3orifhNhn840GpMMPm/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47mshsytqrnv57s3ten650um47j28ik3lkk26slfbz&rid=giphy.gif)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 22, 2020, 08:43:26 AM
12Z NAM (Kuchera)

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 22, 2020, 08:52:31 AM
East Tn looking better for a White Christmas! Especially up here in the Northern Valley.

From MRX:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201222/4eae70c5caf0d9ca88a58f158c87e5de.jpg)

12z NAM3k:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201222/16ad9ced47e8b149d2e5f54f6b4d5783.jpg)



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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: WXHD on December 22, 2020, 09:05:21 AM
Weather was pleasant enough last night to drag the family out to see the winter solstice conjunction. I never tire of the wonders of our universe.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 22, 2020, 09:07:21 AM
However it plays out, this will be one of the most interesting Christmas Eve's in recent memory.  Heavy rain and mild for the first part of the day, followed by crashing temps, wind, and hopefully snow falling before dark.  That's a nice weather smorgasbord to dine on in late December.   

(http://insidestl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Smorgasbord.jpg)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: NKnoxVol on December 22, 2020, 09:08:10 AM
a cold chasing rain event showing significant accumulation as far south as alexander city alabama???
Thereís more to it than that. A small low pressure will form somewhere and ride the front up the apps.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 22, 2020, 09:16:27 AM
Thereís more to it than that. A small low pressure will form somewhere and ride the front up the apps.


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Oh I know, that's great news for you all in east Tn....looks like I will be lucky to see a flake fly here but you guys may actually really have a white Christmas!
Title: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 22, 2020, 09:28:12 AM
Last nights Euro Control on NYE(sorry not trying to trump the Christmas snow). You East Tennessee folks might want to break that one out.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201222/93a259ffb37f529233d713db2418fa8d.jpg)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 22, 2020, 09:30:06 AM
Last nights Euro Control on NYE(sorry not trying to trump the Christmas snow)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201222/93a259ffb37f529233d713db2418fa8d.jpg)

that would be lovely :)

would be like 63/64 storm :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 22, 2020, 09:54:38 AM
Last nights Euro Control on NYE(sorry not trying to trump the Christmas snow). You East Tennessee folks might want to break that one out.

We are looooooooooooong overdue for one of these.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 22, 2020, 09:56:04 AM
Leave it to a Memphian to post that map.  ;D
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 22, 2020, 09:58:11 AM
Leave it to a Memphian to post that map.  ;D

its really a great map for most of us though :)Ö..too bad its so far out lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 22, 2020, 10:14:51 AM
1993 superstorm, anybody remember how far out in advance models got that one right? Did the mets jump on board? just interested
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: WXHD on December 22, 2020, 10:28:37 AM
Last nights Euro Control on NYE(sorry not trying to trump the Christmas snow). You East Tennessee folks might want to break that one out.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201222/93a259ffb37f529233d713db2418fa8d.jpg)

That would be a nice way to end this year and begin anew.  Though, with the disappointment this year has brought, Iíd rather this slip from our grasp sooner than later.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 22, 2020, 10:29:05 AM
12z GFS much colder (read snowier) than it's predecessors.  Still think the Plateau wins here for those in Mid TN.  Could end up with some white car hoods. 

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020122212/gfs_asnow_seus_12.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 22, 2020, 10:31:12 AM
Last nights Euro Control on NYE(sorry not trying to trump the Christmas snow). You East Tennessee folks might want to break that one out.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201222/93a259ffb37f529233d713db2418fa8d.jpg)
Iíll cash my chips now while itís still there.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 22, 2020, 10:45:12 AM
NAM shows an abundance of snow showers for mid/east TN after the main system departs.  Some could put down a white coating for many.



Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 22, 2020, 10:51:14 AM
NAM shows an abundance of snow showers for mid/east TN after the main system departs.  Some could put down a white coating for many.

I'm trying not to freak out
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 22, 2020, 11:10:01 AM
Last nights Euro Control on NYE(sorry not trying to trump the Christmas snow). You East Tennessee folks might want to break that one out.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201222/93a259ffb37f529233d713db2418fa8d.jpg)
thats exactly what I was talking bout in the long range discussion lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 22, 2020, 11:19:42 AM
thats exactly what I was talking bout in the long range discussion lol

Are you on our winter bus now, Bruce?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clint on December 22, 2020, 11:22:55 AM
Are you on our winter bus now, Bruce?
Donít let Bruce fool you he loves Winter weather as much as the next person.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 22, 2020, 11:27:42 AM
Are you on our winter bus now, Bruce?
yes sir ... I want a front seat lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 22, 2020, 11:31:38 AM
Donít let Bruce fool you he loves Winter weather as much as the next person.

of course he does, he is just annoyed at our torch winters and close call misses the past several years lol....as am I
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 22, 2020, 11:52:42 AM
Latest AFD from MRX regarding Christmas Eve and Christmas:

Quote
  LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)...
An active extended period with two main systems. One during the
Christmas Eve/Christmas Day and the next one at the end of the
extended. Will focus most of this discussion on the Christmas
system which will potentially be quite impactful. The main
messages are the following:

1) Strong upper dynamics will tighten the pressure gradient
across the southern Appalachians late Wednesday afternoon through
around mid-morning Thursday. Models agree with a strong 850mb jet
of 50- 60kts setting the stage for a Mountain Wave High Wind Event
for Mountains and Foothills.

2) Strong boundary layer southerly jet will also pull abundant
moisture into a strengthen upper jet dynamics to produce a 6 hours
period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Isolated runoff issues
are possible with localized flooding.  Not expecting a widespread
flooding event.

3) Strong cold air advection behind frontal passage between 12-16Z
Thursday will allow rain to change to snow quickly in the afternoon.
A window of light to moderate snow is expected Thursday afternoon
and evening, some locally heavy northeast Tennessee and southwest
Virginia. Accumulating snow is expected especially areas along and
north and east of interstate 40 and 75, as well as, the
mountains.

4) Strong cold air advection Thursday will drop temperatures quickly
in the afternoon with very cold airmass for Thursday night through
Friday night. Temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees below
normal for Christmas day.

Now for the particulars...

For Wednesday, upper and surface ridging moves east with increasing
boundary layer jet producing a mild day with increasing cloud cover,
mainly mid and upper levels. Strengthening frontal boundary over
western Tennessee late and continued ridging in the Carolinas will
begin to produce high winds late in the Mountains and Foothills.

For Wednesday night, A southern and northern stream jets will deepen
a long-wave trough across the mid-section of the nation. Strong
upper jet forcing will produce strong AGV/Omega along the frontal
boundary. The 850mb jet will be near 50-60kts with good 850mb
inversion to induce strong Mountain Wave High Wind event across the
Mountains and Foothills. The 850mb Omega shows strong subsidence in
this area depicting the affects of the Mountain waves. Have issued a
High Wind Watch for these areas.

For Thursday and early Thursday night, the brunt of the jet forcing
and strong Omega within the increasing elevated frontal boundary
(500-700mb) will produce widespread rain. Some of the rain will be
moderate to locally heavy. The strong jet forcing will greatly
strengthening the frontal boundary with strong cold air advection
changing rain to snow across the entire area. However, the best mid-
level Omega, negative EPV of -0.5 to almost -1, and affects of
strengthening surface cyclogenesis will be across southwest
Virginia and northeast Tennessee.

These areas will likely see the heaviest of the snow accumulations
with some banding of the snow possible for a brief period of time.
Significant snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible there
and far east Tennessee Mountains. Snowfall of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inch
possible across the northern Plateau into the central Valley. Little
to no accumulations elsewhere.

A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for these areas if the
system persist for later runs.

For Christmas day, Snow showers or flurries will remain possible
across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee, and Mountains.
Another spoke of cold air aloft will also aid in the production of
snow showers northeast. Additional light accumulations possible
across the higher elevations. Main weather story will be the
abnormally cold temperatures.

The cold temperatures will persist Friday night and Saturday
morning, but moderate for Saturday into Sunday as upper trough
moves east.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 22, 2020, 12:36:18 PM
12z GEFS snow mean is...interesting.

(https://i.ibb.co/xJQD4L8/GEFS-12z-12-22-20.jpg)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 22, 2020, 12:40:15 PM
Latest Euro Christmas morning

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 22, 2020, 12:41:11 PM
About time for one of you from the east half of the state to fire up the thread. Merry Christmas from DW.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 22, 2020, 12:51:06 PM
12z GEFS snow mean is...interesting.

(https://i.ibb.co/xJQD4L8/GEFS-12z-12-22-20.jpg)

What the flip?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 22, 2020, 12:58:31 PM
This is interesting: Nashville set a record low on May 9 (35F) and a record high 6 months later on November 9 (83F).

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ohx
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 22, 2020, 01:00:02 PM
12z GEFS snow mean is...interesting.

(https://i.ibb.co/xJQD4L8/GEFS-12z-12-22-20.jpg)

Hope you all get some of that action.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 22, 2020, 01:03:31 PM
What the flip?

To me, the take away is that the ensembles are supportive of the op, which as Eric said, was colder (or faster with the cold, however you want to look at it).
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 22, 2020, 01:06:04 PM
To me, the take away is that the ensembles are supportive of the op, which as Eric said, was colder (or faster with the cold, however you want to look at it).

Would be great for you and me. We need a faster changeover!
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on December 22, 2020, 01:34:37 PM
What's the consensus on accuracy of the GEFS in regards to winter weather in TN?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on December 22, 2020, 01:39:45 PM
What's the consensus on accuracy of the GEFS in regards to winter weather in TN?
Not sure on accuracy, but that's an ensemble mean, not a forecast. I wouldn't bet the ranch on it.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 22, 2020, 01:46:40 PM
What's the consensus on accuracy of the GEFS in regards to winter weather in TN?

One member of the ensemble can skew the data. It's a good method to use for areas that have the best probability of receiving snowfall as opposed to raw snowfall totals.

GEFS Members showing snowfall down near the gulf coast probably aren't going to verify, but it is sensible to highlight those areas in light gray when creating the ensemble to represent they have a very minor chance of receiving snowfall. Conversely, areas with the pinks and purples have a very high probability of receiving snowfall.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 22, 2020, 02:23:18 PM
What's the consensus on accuracy of the GEFS in regards to winter weather in TN?

GEFS is the ensemble suite of the GFS. Like anything, it's usefulness depends on how you use it.
Title: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 22, 2020, 02:36:52 PM
About time for one of you from the east half of the state to fire up the thread. Merry Christmas from DW.
Lets do it different and wait until any advisories are issued. Dont wanna jinx anything

Edit: JayCee already did lol

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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 22, 2020, 02:38:40 PM
Lets do it different and wait until any advisories are issued. Dont wanna jinx anything

Edit: JayCee already did lol

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Our offices won't issue anything until flakes start falling. At least that's what OHX did on the Nov 30 event when some parts of the Plateau received more than 3".
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 22, 2020, 02:46:47 PM
Our offices won't issue anything until flakes start falling. At least that's what OHX did on the Nov 30 event when some parts of the Plateau received more than 3".

In fairness, OHX did hoist winter weather advisories for the Plateau foothills (Warren Co, eastward).  Once they saw the backbuilding upstream and ground-truth reports, more counties were added westward.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on December 22, 2020, 02:51:24 PM
GEFS is the ensemble suite of the GFS.

Gotcha. Still learning, so I may ask dumb questions from time to time. Thanks to y'all for taking the time to answer them.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 22, 2020, 04:42:12 PM
Gotcha. Still learning, so I may ask dumb questions from time to time. Thanks to y'all for taking the time to answer them.

No worries, and no question is dumb.  I know just enough to be dangerously stupid.   ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 23, 2020, 08:32:30 AM
Minot, ND will just know experience its first below-average temperature day of the month.

It is currently throwing up a +13 in a departure from average. Some areas on the Canadian border and probably into Canada are throwing departures from average in excess of +15.  This is even worse than what we had in December of 2015, which was around +11/+12.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 23, 2020, 11:07:06 AM
Minot, ND will just know experience its first below-average temperature day of the month.

It is currently throwing up a +13 in a departure from average. Some areas on the Canadian border and probably into Canada are throwing departures from average in excess of +15.  This is even worse than what we had in December of 2015, which was around +11/+12.

Not very La-Nina-ish for northern regions.  Temperatures more associated with her kid brother. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 23, 2020, 12:47:55 PM
Not very La-Nina-ish for northern regions.  Temperatures more associated with her kid brother.

December will look a look like a strong El-Nino when it comes to temperature departures from average.  With average to even pockets of below-average temperatures in the Southeast and above-average elsewhere peaking in the Northern Plains.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 26, 2020, 09:33:12 AM
Seasonal snowfall. You can see where the Mid MS River Valley is lacking. I can't help but think there are some major snowstorms coming that way soon for places like Chicago and STL.

Title: December 2020
Post by: Michael on December 26, 2020, 10:13:51 AM
12z GFS Giving Mid Tn folks a payback for Christmas...on NYE

Yaíll might wanna go look. Those are impressive amounts. Im not jinxing it with a map lol.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 26, 2020, 10:22:37 AM
As Michael said, 12ZGFS has 6+ amounts in middle TN.  2-3 eastward. Also seems to have more freezing rain/sleet in the transition than the Christmas system had, especially mid-state. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 26, 2020, 10:41:42 AM
*yawns*

Cold chasing moisture... where have I seen that before?  ;)

Sorry guys, that's another one that just ain't it, more than likely. I'll be patient for the next opportunity.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on December 26, 2020, 10:45:32 AM
The NWS for the Tri-Cities area says as of right now the event for Thursday night and Friday is looking almost identical to Christmas Eve. We are 5 days out so there may be nothing by then


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 26, 2020, 10:49:10 AM
*yawns*

Cold chasing moisture... where have I seen that before?  ;)

Sorry guys, that's another one that just ain't it, more than likely. I'll be patient for the next opportunity.

This actually could turn into something, I am very eager to see the ECMWF take in a little bit on the upper level features. 925mb temps are out and ahead of 850mb which kinda pictures a strong low level cold air push than the last event. 12Z GFS is screaming lots of Ice for Nashville to the Plateau before the warm layer gives and we go to all snow. Think of this like the last event just further West. I actually like the chances again this go around and what this sets up after.





THIS is new. This is what we want in middle TN. A slight track deviation obviously has high costs. But the signal is there and this is a new take. Very nice looking setup at h5 , through staying positive long enough to pick up a wave out of the southern stream turn negative and pop that low pressure in southern AL into GA.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1608984000/1609459200-LeDpzfrfbe0.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 26, 2020, 10:54:41 AM
This actually could turn into something, I am very eager to see the ECMWF take in a little bit on the upper level features. 925mb temps are out and ahead of 850mb which kinda pictures a strong low level cold air push than the last event. 12Z GFS is screaming lots of Ice for Nashville to the Plateau before the warm layer gives and we go to all snow. Think of this like the last event just further West. I actually like the chances again this go around and what this sets up after.

GFS was decently accurate with the Christmas system before losing it and went back and forth with amounts.  It actually outperformed the Euro that had eastern TN only getting an inch or 2 most runs, even as it got closer.  Euro only had a handful of runs that showed heavy snow here.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 26, 2020, 10:59:15 AM
GFS was decently accurate with the Christmas system before losing it and went back and forth with amounts.  It actually outperformed the Euro that had eastern TN only getting an inch or 2 most runs, even as it got closer.  Euro only had a handful of runs that showed heavy snow here.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/vort500_z500/1608984000/1609416000-cvoqXLSpqkY.png)

Really close to cutting off and coming West
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/vort500_z500/1608984000/1609459200-LVcKCnDDSo4.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 26, 2020, 11:03:56 AM
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/vort500_z500/1608984000/1609416000-cvoqXLSpqkY.png)

Really close to cutting off and coming West
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/vort500_z500/1608984000/1609459200-LVcKCnDDSo4.png)

Definitely something good to watch.  May not work out, but west/middle TN could at least see more flakes flying with this system than Christmas Eve. 
Title: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 26, 2020, 11:11:02 AM
Canadian is like - what snowstorm are any of you taking about? Youíll get severe weather and 70ís while Oklahoma gets a blizzard.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 26, 2020, 11:11:15 AM
Definitely something good to watch.  May not work out, but west/middle TN could at least see more flakes flying with this system than Christmas Eve.

Would be a good way to start off 2021. CMC is almost comical @ 500MB with a low shooting NE out of SE TX to west of Memphis. hahaha
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 26, 2020, 11:13:13 AM
Canadian is like - what snowstorm are any of you taking about? Youíll get severe weather and 70ís while Oklahoma gets a blizzard.

Makes you wonder what the ECMWF is going to give us  ::rofl::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 26, 2020, 11:15:47 AM
OHX...

Quote
As the system exits the area, we could see a brief changeover to snow, but don't expect a big winter weather trouble maker.
 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Beth on December 26, 2020, 11:31:11 AM
I wonít get to excited unless it is showing it the day before. Just a little jaded this year. I think the icing on the cake was the bomb on Christmas morning. Thankful no lives were lost but wonder whats next.  A big snow would help my attitude a whole lot!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 26, 2020, 11:38:59 AM
I wonít get to excited unless it is showing it the day before. Just a little jaded this year. I think the icing on the cake was the bomb on Christmas morning. Thankful no lives were lost but wonder whats next.  A big snow would help my attitude a whole lot!  ::snowman::

Yeah, that's the attitude adjustment I am talking about! Its about time we run out of bread and milk here.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 26, 2020, 11:52:21 AM
Yeah, that's the attitude adjustment I am talking about! Its about time we run out of bread and milk here.

Don't forget the eggs and cheese lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 26, 2020, 11:54:36 AM
Canadian is like - what snowstorm are any of you taking about? Youíll get severe weather and 70ís while Oklahoma gets a blizzard.

Bruce is on board then.   ::guitar::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 26, 2020, 12:02:52 PM
y'all this next one does have a chance to be exactly like east tn storm only 150 miles farther west. it sure would be nice.

even ohx is lost on what to forecast lol, they don't even have rain mentioned in forecast in my area , who knows what it will do , hoping it works out
Title: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 26, 2020, 01:27:29 PM
Don't forget the eggs and cheese lol
Yíall spelled alcohol wrong!


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 26, 2020, 01:30:38 PM
Yíall spelled alcohol wrong!


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It does keep you warm (or numb) when the power goes out for 7 hours. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 26, 2020, 01:33:47 PM
So looking at the 12Z GFS vs Euro you see where the European goes Neural then Negative tilt much sooner than the GFS. This depends on how these features within the H5 pattern phase. The small UUL over the Soutern Dakotas on the Euro wants to keep a tug on the 540 low over TX. The GFS relaxes the Northern wave and lets it move on ahead. When does it go neutral to positive depends on when the northern and southern steam meet. Maybe more so what effect the northern stream has on the southern.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 26, 2020, 01:45:03 PM
OHX...

Quote
As the system exits the area Thursday night, a brief change to snow may occur as the precipitation tapers off. At this time, we do not expect any significant accumulation or travel problems. The new year is expected to begin dry and seasonably cool.
 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 26, 2020, 01:53:02 PM
OHX...

OHX never has my confidence during the winter season, very wishy washy when it comes to their winter weather forecasting, they issue advisories and warnings many times with nothing to show for it...and other times nothing is issued and people get 2-3 inches of snow lol, winter here is such a crapshoot i guess you just really have to wait until the "day of" to really know what happens, however in that statement they are not even mentioning the chances of a new Low developing
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 26, 2020, 01:59:17 PM
OHX never has my confidence during the winter season, very wishy washy when it comes to their winter weather forecasting, they issue advisories and warnings many times with nothing to show for it...and other times nothing is issued and people get 2-3 inches of snow lol, winter here is such a crapshoot i guess you just really have to wait until the "day of" to really know what happens, however in that statement they are not even mentioning the chances of a new Low developing
little early be saying no accumulation be honest ... there just going with norms around here this far out
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 26, 2020, 02:03:23 PM
little early be saying no accumulation be honest ... there just going with norms around here this far out

Which is exactly what they should do.  Climatology beats mixed up modeling all day long.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 26, 2020, 02:45:31 PM
Which is exactly what they should do.  Climatology beats mixed up modeling all day long.

True, just saying that nothing right now is really a forecast,nobody is sure what is going to happen, but there is a system to watch closely :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 26, 2020, 03:25:31 PM
True, just saying that nothing right now is really a forecast,nobody is sure what is going to happen, but there is a system to watch closely :)

And yet, OHX still has to put out a forecast.  Do they wish cast or go with climatology and experience? 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Coach B on December 26, 2020, 03:44:03 PM
And yet, OHX still has to put out a forecast.  Do they wish cast or go with climatology and experience?
Having to give specific forecasts several days out or even accumulation forecasts the day before an event puts mets in a tough spot. I think they are better off giving those boom, bust, most likely forecasts that we sometimes see. I know that is not going to happen out past day three or four, but I think many of us look for that type of info in the AFDs. Sometimes they put it in there and sometimes not.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 26, 2020, 04:24:25 PM
And yet, OHX still has to put out a forecast.  Do they wish cast or go with climatology and experience?

Oh i agree, just saying its a crapshoot, i don't disagree at all, but i do wish they would discuss all angles a little bit more
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 26, 2020, 04:25:23 PM
Having to give specific forecasts several days out or even accumulation forecasts the day before an event puts mets in a tough spot. I think they are better off giving those boom, bust, most likely forecasts that we sometimes see. I know that is not going to happen out past day three or four, but I think many of us look for that type of info in the AFDs. Sometimes they put it in there and sometimes not.

It's not an easy job in the best of times.  In reality, many more counties shoud've been put in the winter storm warning in east TN.  A friend in northeast TN near Bristol had 3 inches.  Areas southwest of there saw 4+ inches of snow.  All the forecasters have to go on is what the models show. In fairness, even the short range models (HRRR/NAM) started to show more than 4 inches down to Knoxville.  But the past and climatology says that happens less often than it does.  This was one of those time it happened.  But I've been under a WSW before, and saw less than 3 inches.  Again, it's a tough job in the best of times.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 26, 2020, 04:30:24 PM
It's not an easy job in the best of times.  In reality, many more counties shoud've been put in the winter storm warning in east TN.  A friend in northeast TN near Bristol had 3 inches.  Areas southwest of there saw 4+ inches of snow.  All the forecasters have to go on is what the models show. In fairness, even the short range models (HRRR/NAM) started to show more than 4 inches down to Knoxville.  But the past and climatology says that happens less often than it does.  This was one of those time it happened.  But I've been under a WSW before, and saw less than 3 inches.  Again, it's a tough job in the best of times.
The "day of" events it's time to kind of not pay attention to models and focus on radar, thats one thing that interests me . During 2015 march snow they kept showing my area being under snow for hours on their models on tv yet i saw the radar drying up quick but they kept showing that model saying we have several hours of snow left . When the event is happening i just don't see the point paying attention to a model ....just my opinion
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 26, 2020, 04:44:46 PM
The "day of" events it's time to kind of not pay attention to models and focus on radar, thats one thing that interests me . During 2015 march snow they kept showing my area being under snow for hours on their models on tv yet i saw the radar drying up quick but they kept showing that model saying we have several hours of snow left . When the event is happening i just don't see the point paying attention to a model ....just my opinion

I agree with you.  I remember times when I was experiencing heavy snow and MRX was being conservative (as they usually are), and never even issued an advisory.  They make mistakes.  As humans do.  I guess as I've aged, I've learned to forgive that.  Because if they forecast snow and nothing happens (and that's often in the TN valley) they are reamed for the mistake.  I'm just saying it's a tough job.  In my youth, I wanted that job.  But I'm glad I'm not a career meteorologist in this day.  Too many armchair weathermen are just as bad as armchair coaches these days. Especially when it comes to UT football.   ;D
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clint on December 26, 2020, 04:48:27 PM
18Z GFS  ::snowman::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 26, 2020, 04:57:23 PM
Yeah 18zgfs just said itís happy hour. All drinks on me... lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: gcbama on December 26, 2020, 06:13:07 PM
Yeah 18zgfs just said itís happy hour. All drinks on me... lol

If that low would form more towards new orleans i would feel better about most of us getting some heavy moisture in the cold air....it would take my dream northeast track i have always wanted to be on that heavy backside moisture for hours :)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on December 26, 2020, 10:13:30 PM
0z GFS slams the MS River/OH River confluence.  Dyersburg gets obliterated.  Not much else for anybody east of Jackson.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: MemphisJDJ on December 26, 2020, 10:18:15 PM
0z GFS is looking mighty icy before a changeover to snow for us in the Memphis metro
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 26, 2020, 10:25:13 PM
Obliterate me.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 26, 2020, 10:30:25 PM
Looks like nice hit bout up to the Tennessee River on 0zgfs...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BALLPARK on December 26, 2020, 10:37:15 PM
The Blocking is in the North Atlantic on this run just like the video from earlier today.
Title: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 26, 2020, 10:43:55 PM
2 inches of freezing rain on the NW side of the ULL followed by 4 inches of snow? Iíve never seen freezing rain here with that kind of scenario. Those 850ís are wonk.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 26, 2020, 10:46:15 PM
Oz GFS actually is a pretty good hit for all of west tn extending into nw middle tn. Good hit all the way through springfield and then big dropoff. ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 26, 2020, 11:09:01 PM
CMC is way NW for an I44 win. Went back and checked the euro control at 18z. It verified close to that. Kind of expecting the Euro to go well west tonight but hope Iím wrong.

Pretty decent negative NAO and AO at that time although itís a little misplaced but mostly for east coast snow storms. Iím a little surprised itís trying to cut on the earlier euro that far west. Itís  finishing out 2020 so why not buck every trend.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: MemphisJDJ on December 26, 2020, 11:14:02 PM
2 inches of freezing rain on the NW side of the ULL followed by 4 inches of snow? Iíve never seen freezing rain here with that kind of scenario. Those 850ís are wonk.

I was just thinking the same thing myself. Doesn't make since to have a warm nose with the placement of the LP and not within a dry slot
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 26, 2020, 11:29:24 PM
I was just thinking the same thing myself. Doesn't make since to have a warm nose with the placement of the LP and not within a dry slot
all of that will work it self out as it gets closer...main thing we can take in this so far is a major winter storm may be on the table for the area... even the CMC was big winter storm back just to the nw of us.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clint on December 26, 2020, 11:42:54 PM
Here's the 0Z UKMET... Arkansas does well.
(https://i.imgur.com/Z43dPfS.png)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 26, 2020, 11:44:21 PM
Here's the 0Z UKMET... Arkansas does well.
(https://i.imgur.com/Z43dPfS.png)
Christmas Blizzard 2012 at least itís not Oklahoma.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 26, 2020, 11:47:40 PM
Christmas Blizzard 2012 at least itís not Oklahoma.
yea agree, would love to see the slp take a route more towards that apps a bit.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 26, 2020, 11:53:15 PM
Actually thatís an encouraging sign it may not cut back too far west. Goodness- 30 miles to the east and itís in business. Sorry Bruce 60 miles for you.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Curt on December 27, 2020, 12:26:43 AM
For some reason Iím up. Euro only went 500 miles to the west. Geez. Cmc and euro are identical.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: MemphisJDJ on December 27, 2020, 12:28:56 AM
Welp. That was one ugly run. Eastern Oklahoma comes out a winner.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2020, 12:29:29 AM
For some reason Iím up. Euro only went 500 miles to the west. Geez. Cmc and euro are identical.
yep me too still up. Plasters eastern Oklahoma.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 27, 2020, 04:49:45 AM
Model madness going on. Unlike our Christmas Eve storm, they are thoroughly confused about this one.

This appears to be a lot of sleet and I'm sure it's amplifying those totals, such as in the 0Z GFS. This may be an Arkansas storm that nudges the NW'ern corner of TN. Areas between I-44 and I-55 are the early winners.

I know it's early to make such a judgment, but if you're more than 50 miles east of I-55 I'd go ahead and assume heavy rain and wind will be the prevailing elements of this system. Not seeing anything wintry in store that's plausible east of Jackson.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on December 28, 2020, 12:01:26 AM
The wind is absolutely roaring right now. Reminds me of the wake low from earlier this year.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 28, 2020, 10:12:06 AM
The New Year's Eve storm track mimics what a tropical storm does.  Very interesting and rare to see that kind of track in the winter.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 29, 2020, 11:36:13 AM
Some drought relief for Texas over the next 3 days suffering under moderate to exceptional drought conditions.  Good see that, as we don't want intense drought in the southern Plains heading into spring.  It doesn't usually bode well for those who hate hot, dry summers.  2012 comes to mind. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 29, 2020, 01:43:41 PM
Some drought relief for Texas over the next 3 days suffering under moderate to exceptional drought conditions.  Good see that, as we don't want intense drought in the southern Plains heading into spring.  It doesn't usually bode well for those who hate hot, dry summers.  2012 comes to mind.

Sometimes it can also lead to increased and more intense severe weather events later on in 2021 because that dry air can be advected into the system and clear out any junk convection setting the stage for more intense rounds of storms. 2008 and 2011 along with 2012 are recent examples of that. It can also cause drought to spread eastward as well. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 29, 2020, 01:52:23 PM
Alpine, Texas is the place to be for a snow chase with this one.  As the storm occludes things get disorganized which is why things have been on a downward trend especially north of the KS/OK border.  This is probably going to be a historic storm for the Big Bend region of Texas up into the Permian Basin.

The Euro is showing up to 12-13 inches of snow across the
Chihuahuan Desert region of Mexico and far SW Texas. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 29, 2020, 02:00:13 PM
GFS has a heavy sleetstorm for our friends in Paducah, Kentucky. I'm not sure they want any of that, though.

NAM has the heaviest ice totals right along the Ohio River.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Drifter on December 29, 2020, 02:01:26 PM
GFS has a heavy sleetstorm for our friends in Paducah, Kentucky. I'm not sure they want any of that, though.

NAM has the heaviest ice totals right along the Ohio River.
Iíll take a sleetfest, it has staying power.


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 29, 2020, 02:10:40 PM
Iíll take a sleetfest, it has staying power.


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Yep.  Sure does.  I'll take a truckload of that over freezing rain.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 29, 2020, 02:15:54 PM
Sometimes it can also lead to increased and more intense severe weather events later on in 2021 because that dry air can be advected into the system and clear out any junk convection setting the stage for more intense rounds of storms. 2008 and 2011 along with 2012 are recent examples of that. It can also cause drought to spread eastward as well.

Considering that, I hope they get several more deluges out that way.  I love crapvection.  Just regular, run-of-the-mill storms that are 'nader killers. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 30, 2020, 10:50:20 AM
The 3k NAM has Alpine, TX receiving 32 inches of snow lol.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 30, 2020, 10:54:59 AM
Just for historic purposes lol.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on December 30, 2020, 07:19:07 PM
Well I canít give an accurate yearly rain total yet due to the coming precip tomorrow, but I think I have a new record. I was at 45.4Ē when I switched weather stations on June 19. I have had 30.78Ē since then (more than half of that from tropical systems) for a total so far of 76.18Ē. 3rd year running over normal, and the second consecutive year with 70Ē+. Weíve been living in a bonafide temperate rainforest for the past 3 years.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 30, 2020, 07:32:41 PM
 35 degree rain all night. Nothing sucks more.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 30, 2020, 09:30:58 PM
35 degree rain all night. Nothing sucks more.

33F and rain?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 31, 2020, 09:26:45 AM
33F and rain?

Few Febs ago, we had 29 and rain.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 31, 2020, 09:34:23 AM
Few Febs ago, we had 29 and rain.

I thought I remembered hard rain 2 degree below freezing here. Was that one a overrunning event? Very warm layer aloft , our love 850mb WAA push...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 31, 2020, 09:47:28 AM
Few Febs ago, we had 29 and rain.

2015 Ice Storm. Yuck
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: snowdog on December 31, 2020, 11:08:50 AM
I thought I remembered hard rain 2 degree below freezing here. Was that one a overrunning event? Very warm layer aloft , our love 850mb WAA push...

Yeah, pretty sure models had us around 8-10" but lost a lot of that to heavy rain below freezing. Ended up being a pretty nasty ice storm with a few inches of snow on top. I think in my backyard, if my memory is correct, it finally switched over around 28 degrees. One of the more frustrating winter storms I've endured.

A lot of people had water damage from the ice damns in their gutters. I remember going around and beating the gutters with a pole a couple of times. Awful.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on December 31, 2020, 11:27:25 AM
Yeah, that "ice jam" event was awful. We had water damage at the church building from ice blocked gutters causing water to back up, and I think melting on the roof exploited leak spots. I think it was exasperated with a rain event a few days after the sleet event. Scraping ice off the sidewalk was like chiseling away concrete.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on December 31, 2020, 03:14:28 PM
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/pacific-record-breaking-extratropical-storm-mk/?fbclid=IwAR2lvknl_ipiJBwOkKsE99SApDZvI7jxwBCZaN9IddoBZTDj1mYIhrI53kM

921MB low maybe.

The western Aleutian Islands will get to find out tonight as they ring in the New Year with a potential record-breaking storm.   
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 31, 2020, 03:19:39 PM
Yeah, pretty sure models had us around 8-10" but lost a lot of that to heavy rain below freezing. Ended up being a pretty nasty ice storm with a few inches of snow on top. I think in my backyard, if my memory is correct, it finally switched over around 28 degrees. One of the more frustrating winter storms I've endured.

A lot of people had water damage from the ice damns in their gutters. I remember going around and beating the gutters with a pole a couple of times. Awful.

Oh I think I remember that now. I loved that storm lol
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 31, 2020, 03:26:30 PM
Happy New Year all!  Hope 2021 brings snow to everyone!  ::snowman:: 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JHart on January 01, 2021, 09:23:59 AM
We ended the year with 58.34 inches of rain here in the Lascassas Valley.  That is about ten inches above average and about ten inches less than we received in 2019.   ::rain::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on January 01, 2021, 02:15:44 PM
2020 was the wettest year I've seen since moving to TN in 2003.  61.46" was recorded, but I was out of town much of July.  Despite a wet year, I only had 1.04" in July (or thereabouts).  Several young trees I had planted last year were nearly defoliated when I returned.  That dry trend was quickly reversed in August, and thereafter, thanks to the tropics sending one storm after another toward the Southern Appalachians.  The busy 2020 hurricane season definitely saved this area from an autumn drought. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: StormNine on January 01, 2021, 02:49:17 PM
West and Middle TN mostly finished December with +1 to +2 departures from normal with East TN ranging from -1 to average, which is good for our second coldest December since 2010 for most areas, which just shows you how warm December has been this past decade. 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Clint on January 01, 2021, 04:28:56 PM
West and Middle TN mostly finished December with +1 to +2 departures from normal with East TN ranging from -1 to average, which is good for our second coldest December since 2010 for most areas, which just shows you how warm December has been this past decade.
Thanks for the update... After checking the NOWdata on NOAA's website, I get the below departure data for December, 2020.

Memphis +.4 (Used data from Memphis WFO instead of the Airport)
Nashville +1.3
Chattanooga +1.1
Knoxville -.9
 
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: JayCee on January 03, 2021, 06:11:13 PM
West and Middle TN mostly finished December with +1 to +2 departures from normal with East TN ranging from -1 to average, which is good for our second coldest December since 2010 for most areas, which just shows you how warm December has been this past decade.

Best December here since before 2015.  Actually felt like winter for a change.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2021, 01:38:08 PM
Winter is coming! All the warm weather wishcasters can jump ship!

 ::snowman::


they will b able to jump back on by mid late January .. lol




How did your prediction work out, Bruce?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on January 13, 2021, 05:10:09 PM




How did your prediction work out, Bruce?

Iíd say he has been dead on considering our area hasnít seen but a trace of snow, ole schneezy boy.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Scot on January 13, 2021, 05:45:58 PM
Iíd say he has been dead on considering our area hasnít seen but a trace of snow, ole schneezy boy.
You serious Clark?


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Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2021, 06:16:23 PM
I’d say he has been dead on considering our area hasn’t seen but a trace of snow, ole schneezy boy.

That sucks for you, I guess. What I'm referring to are temperatures, and that it hasn't torched at all this winter. As per usual, however, meteorology is hard for you to understand
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on January 13, 2021, 06:43:29 PM
That sucks for you, I guess. What I'm referring to are temperatures, and that it hasn't torched at all this winter. As per usual, however, meteorology is hard for you to understand

Agreed it hasnít torched. Meh, I imagine I have more meteorology classes under my belt.  Didnít you say recently that you graduated HS just last year or so? Carry on...
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2021, 06:50:18 PM
Agreed it hasnít torched. Meh, I imagine I have more meteorology classes under my belt.  Didnít you say recently that you graduated HS just last year or so? Carry on...

Even hyperbole in this situation gives you no gratification for retaliation, because we're in the same generation. Make sense, or do you need an explanation?
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: TNHunter on January 13, 2021, 09:02:47 PM
Even hyperbole in this situation gives you no gratification for retaliation, because we're in the same generation. Make sense, or do you need an explanation?

No, I literally thought you were in college right now. Might not be you.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2021, 09:19:41 PM
No, I literally thought you were in college right now. Might not be you.

I'm (literally) not in college at the present time But I shall finish that matter soon.

Now go back into hiding and then come out a few weeks later when you want to troll, and we will do this dance again. Trolling is my job, damnit. 

Well, sometimes it's Bruce's, and other times it's Nashville_Wx's. But mostly mine. Otherwise, the three of us wouldn't have so many posts.  ;D
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Eric on January 13, 2021, 09:29:57 PM
I'm (literally) not in college at the present time But I shall finish that matter soon.

Now go back into hiding and then come out a few weeks later when you want to troll, and we will do this dance again. Trolling is my job, damnit. 

Well, sometimes it's Bruce's, and other times it's Nashville_Wx's. But mostly mine. Otherwise, the three of us wouldn't have so many posts.  ;D

Of all the posts on this site, this one may be the most legit.
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 13, 2021, 10:31:30 PM
I'm (literally) not in college at the present time But I shall finish that matter soon.

Now go back into hiding and then come out a few weeks later when you want to troll, and we will do this dance again. Trolling is my job, damnit. 

Well, sometimes it's Bruce's, and other times it's Nashville_Wx's. But mostly mine. Otherwise, the three of us wouldn't have so many posts.  ;D

Eat a bag of hot dogs. :laugh: I like to mess around but I dont troll on peoples love for weather. There is only one person that takes that role. Back in the day we actually talked about the weather, rather than reading what someone else whore on another forum. Those days seem to be lone gone. Nows its just whining and complaining with a little weather mixed in  ::rofl::
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2021, 08:18:35 AM
Like to mess around? Me too

(https://i.gifer.com/2GwB.gif)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 14, 2021, 08:23:35 AM
Like to mess around? Me too

(https://i.gifer.com/2GwB.gif)

(https://media1.giphy.com/media/3ohzdGJK7RQ3v7HknC/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47b0rg0ciemze510ajqilvpm1tzn8jjlgush5zxsd0&rid=giphy.gif)
Title: Re: December 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2021, 01:31:06 PM
yes it will, particular second half january i see that... we all knew winter was going have good chance being front loaded. ::blowtorch::

Bump