Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: Thundersnow on November 01, 2020, 06:36:27 AM

Title: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 01, 2020, 06:36:27 AM
Happy November!

Freeze warning for tonight and tomorrow morning. Protect those plants you care about keeping alive outside a little longer.

Warming trend later in the week.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 01, 2020, 08:05:25 AM
Happy November!

Freeze warnI ing for tonight and tomorrow morning. Protect those plants you care about keeping alive outside a little longer.

Warming trend later in the week.
love the warming trend seeing ... nice warm up coming .dare I say might see 80 again ? Or ask
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 01, 2020, 12:42:33 PM
Here is how November is looking:

1) First freeze tonight for most TN locations

2) Quick warmup this week, possibly into next

3) Tropical system expected w/ enhanced SER

4) Cool down to N or BN conditions by mid-month
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 01, 2020, 01:05:21 PM
First official weather observation from Nashville 150 years ago today.

Posted on NWS FB page:

Quote
It was 150 years ago today, on November 1, 1870, that the NWS (then the U.S. Army Signal Corps) transmitted the very first weather observation for the city of Nashville, TN.

11/01/1870 at 7am: Barometric pressure that morning was 30.08", temperature 51į, north wind of 2 mph, and a fair sky.

11/01/2020 at 7am: Barometric pressure this morning was 30.21", temperature 54į, west wind of 7 mph, and a fair sky.

Even though there's a LOT different about the way we take observations today, the weather wasn't all that much different 150 years ago.  I'm pretty sure I'll be retired for the next one in 150 years!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 01, 2020, 04:03:46 PM
Mid to late Nov:

1) MJO trending toward the negative side, into the second quadrant (phases 7 and 8 ).

2) AO forecast to flip negative.


If this holds, I'm thinking some of you in our higher elevations catch some light snowfall this month.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on November 01, 2020, 05:05:36 PM
Tough drive from Chattanooga to Nashville today with the gusty winds. I drive a lower profile vehicle and it was still a struggle to keep it on the road at times. I saw a few near accidents also.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Brad on November 01, 2020, 06:03:05 PM
My wife just got home and said she saw a large meteorite on her drive home tonight. Bright and green fireball with a tail. Will be curious to see if anyone captured it on dash cams or security cameras.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 01, 2020, 06:53:54 PM
My wife just got home and said she saw a large meteorite on her drive home tonight. Bright and green fireball with a tail. Will be curious to see if anyone captured it on dash cams or security cameras.

I think there was some kind of near hit asteroid supposed to approach just before election.  ::wow::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 01, 2020, 07:13:38 PM
My wife just got home and said she saw a large meteorite on her drive home tonight. Bright and green fireball with a tail. Will be curious to see if anyone captured it on dash cams or security cameras.
It's 2020, that's the aliens showing up to rig the election.
👽 👽 👽
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on November 01, 2020, 09:38:00 PM
My wife just got home and said she saw a large meteorite on her drive home tonight. Bright and green fireball with a tail. Will be curious to see if anyone captured it on dash cams or security cameras.

I saw it also!! I was on S Mt Juliet Rd a little before 6 headed to Publix and BOOM, huge streaking Bolide that exploded in greens, blues and oranges in the southern sky. I've been fortunate enough to catch 5 or 6 in my life and that was by far the best one.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Eric on November 01, 2020, 09:46:55 PM
Re: the fireball, James Spann has numerous pics and videos on his FB page.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clay on November 02, 2020, 06:22:09 AM
Looks like no freeze at BNA with 34 this AM. Most even most city wx stations in the upper 20s to 32F. Really wonder if the increasing air traffic at BNA is creating at microclimate similar to MEM.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on November 02, 2020, 06:57:30 AM
I'm three miles from BNA and had 31 this morning.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JHart on November 02, 2020, 08:56:23 AM
We managed 25F in the Lascassas Valley this morning.  With the castor bean and coleus plants melting into putty under the rising sun, the growing season is over out here.  ::cold::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 02, 2020, 09:18:59 AM
We reached 30 in Fairview
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 02, 2020, 09:47:32 AM
Dropped to 30.7 last night. We only dipped below freezing for just over an hour and there was wind the whole time, so there really wasn't any frost to speak of. I suspect there isn't any plant damage either. Tonight may be a different story. Under calm winds I suspect we will be in the upper 20's in the outlying areas.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 02, 2020, 05:34:00 PM
Finally got home to check. Got down to 29 on the hill. Dropping much quicker this evening. Be interesting to see if the low lying areas get colder tonight. I bet we stay a little warmer at elevation. Wood stove is lit with a mix of white oak and locust.  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2020, 06:50:35 AM
Does look like we Are going to flirt with hitting 80 degrees by early next week  before another weaker cold front approaches late next week
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 03, 2020, 07:01:57 AM
28 last night. Spent 8 hours below freezing. Thatís it for the growing season this year.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2020, 07:05:53 AM
28 last night. Spent 8 hours below freezing. Thatís it for the growing season this year.
right on cue ... first week November  is average for our first good freeze in most of the state...
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2020, 11:33:09 AM
Todayís 12 z gfs  says fall severe wx season fixing start
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Eric on November 03, 2020, 12:10:59 PM
Todayís 12 z gfs  says fall severe wx season fixing start

(https://media.giphy.com/media/26gR2BU2Hrt9HSN6E/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 03, 2020, 01:27:19 PM
With the pattern that we are heading into and climatology, we aren't getting out of this month without at least one threat of severe weather.   

Bruce, go ahead and like your heart out  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 03, 2020, 04:01:20 PM
I spent a beautiful fall day in the woods near the house (I voted early).  Couldn't ask for better.

It looks like a very long stretch of dry and mild weather.  Ever warmer by the weekend with mid 70's here, leading to upper 70's early next week.  I'm going to relish every minute of it.

 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Curt on November 03, 2020, 04:18:04 PM
How could anyone not like sunny and 70 in November? After the first freeze, these warmer days with no bugs are the best.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 03, 2020, 04:29:23 PM
How could anyone not like sunny and 70 in November? After the first freeze, these warmer days with no bugs are the best.

I may be in minority but I prefer low 50's to low 60's in November, gets me in the thanksgiving mood
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2020, 04:53:05 PM
How could anyone not like sunny and 70 in November? After the first freeze, these warmer days with no bugs are the best.
hope still see few 80 even . November 84 repeat ?
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 04, 2020, 06:01:16 AM
I may be in minority but I prefer low 50's to low 60's in November, gets me in the thanksgiving mood

Yea muzzleloader season opens this weekend and rut is kicking in. Get rid of the 70s crap. Need 50s and 30s right now.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: nrgJeff on November 04, 2020, 08:38:49 AM
If dewpoints are going to get above 65 in November, well yes we deserve severe wx to track. However it looks like the low level jet will be squirrelly next week. Gap in the kinematics over our State is forecast (consistently) with more North and some Deep South with Eta remains. Guess I'll settle for just thunder.

Early next week high temps could make a run at 80 if fewer than 50% clouds. That's the tough part. However it looks like a nice weekend before the dewpoints come up. It's not that bad with the low sun angle. Still those dews without severe kind of feels like a rip-off.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 04, 2020, 09:46:52 AM
While I enjoy winter, I love a long stretch of "Indian summer" weather in the 60's & 70's a few weeks before Thanksgiving.  As Curt said, the insect population has been reduced by some frosty nights, and I can spend long days outdoors in the woods or on the deck without using bug repellent.  I live in a wooded environment so mid-summer can be miserable with mosquitoes and no-see-ums biting every last inch of exposed skin.  Haven't had that problem since our first night below freezing.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2020, 10:02:55 AM
If dewpoints are going to get above 65 in November, well yes we deserve severe wx to track. However it looks like the low level jet will be squirrelly next week. Gap in the kinematics over our State is forecast (consistently) with more North and some Deep South with Eta remains. Guess I'll settle for just thunder.

Early next week high temps could make a run at 80 if fewer than 50% clouds. That's the tough part. However it looks like a nice weekend before the dewpoints come up. It's not that bad with the low sun angle. Still those dews without severe kind of feels like a rip-off.
yeah even the Cooler bias gfs is showing nice run of warmer weather for November
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 04, 2020, 10:13:09 AM
While I enjoy winter, I love a long stretch of "Indian summer" weather in the 60's & 70's a few weeks before Thanksgiving.  As Curt said, the insect population has been reduced by some frosty nights, and I can spend long days outdoors in the woods or on the deck without using bug repellent.

Amen to the long Indian Summer. I'm fine with it right thru the first of the year. I know this is sacrilegious as a deer hunter and lover of winter weather. However, there are just too many positives that go along with warm and mostly dry in November and December. Many of us have more time off from Thanksgiving week thru the first of the year than at any other time during the year. If you have lots of farm work or enjoy outdoor pursuits(other than duck hunting) you really learn to appreciate the warm, dry, time off combo.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 04, 2020, 11:40:21 AM
Amen to the long Indian Summer. I'm fine with it right thru the first of the year. I know this is sacrilegious as a deer hunter and lover of winter weather. However, there are just too many positives that go along with warm and mostly dry in November and December. Many of us have more time off from Thanksgiving week thru the first of the year than at any other time during the year. If you have lots of farm work or enjoy outdoor pursuits(other than duck hunting) you really learn to appreciate the warm, dry, time off combo.

I love dry and warm for duck hunting, as long as north of here is Froze solid!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 04, 2020, 01:15:42 PM
While I enjoy winter, I love a long stretch of "Indian summer" weather in the 60's & 70's a few weeks before Thanksgiving.  As Curt said, the insect population has been reduced by some frosty nights, and I can spend long days outdoors in the woods or on the deck without using bug repellent.  I live in a wooded environment so mid-summer can be miserable with mosquitoes and no-see-ums biting every last inch of exposed skin.  Haven't had that problem since our first night below freezing.

Not sure where you live but the mosquitos were out in full force yesterday just 2 days after our first freeze!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2020, 02:40:50 PM
Not sure where you live but the mosquitos were out in full force yesterday just 2 days after our first freeze!
wasps still flying around also ...
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 04, 2020, 02:58:46 PM
Not sure where you live but the mosquitos were out in full force yesterday just 2 days after our first freeze!

On the east end about 30 miles from the NC border.  Spent 4 hours in the woods yesterday, and no bites even with short sleeves.  However, with upper 70's returning this weekend some zombie skeeters might return from the grave.   ::wow::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 04, 2020, 07:03:44 PM
The Evansville IN/Henderson KY EF-3 tornado day appeared in the CPC 8-14 analog set today.   
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 04, 2020, 07:06:47 PM
Any severe mischief that occurs next week or in the general 8-16 day timeframe is probably going to be more over the I-44 corridor into the Upper Midwest/Ontario.  That is where the best jet energy lies. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 04, 2020, 08:50:23 PM
Yep. The jet stream has dramatically lifted for now. That may change by the third week of the month. The AO is expected to be negative, according to the latest model simulations. The trend has remained consistent for the past week.

For the time being, warm weather, tropical storm development, and possible severe weather will dominate weather discussion.

I expect snowpack will rapidly begin building across the Plains after Thanksgiving and most Tennesseans will see their first flakes flying by late Nov. or early Dec.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 05, 2020, 12:24:07 PM
If anything, 2020 has taught me to live in (and enjoy) the moment because it's all we have--the right now.  The weather is nearly perfect, and will be through the middle of next week. I plan on making the most of it. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2020, 01:53:37 PM
Yep. The jet stream has dramatically lifted for now. That may change by the third week of the month. The AO is expected to be negative, according to the latest model simulations. The trend has remained consistent for the past week.

For the time being, warm weather, tropical storm development, and possible severe weather will dominate weather discussion.

I expect snowpack will rapidly begin building across the Plains after Thanksgiving and most Tennesseans will see their first flakes flying by late Nov. or early Dec.
in order to build a snowpack  In plains weíre going have to be taping in some artic air on a consistent basis . Guess time will tell
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 05, 2020, 02:29:43 PM
in order to build a snowpack  In plains weíre going have to be taping in some artic air on a consistent basis . Guess time will tell

And snowpack has done squat for us recently
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 05, 2020, 02:38:33 PM
in order to build a snowpack  In plains weíre going have to be taping in some artic air on a consistent basis . Guess time will tell

... Yes. Like, duh.

The jet's not going to be hanging out at 45 degrees North for that long. Trends suggest it will dip again, allowing cold air to come over the Plains, mix with an active storm track, and produce snowpack by the end of the month.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 05, 2020, 05:44:43 PM
It only takes a few strong winter storms to build a decent snowpack.  Current GFS shows good snow accumulations developing over the next few weeks in the northwest, southern Canada, and possibly the northern Plains.  It's November, and in our current climate I don't think we could ask for better. Snow=increasing cold north of here.  That will eventually force the polar jet southward and the snow pack will follow. 

In the meantime, have a drink and enjoy the 70's.  They're groovy, man! 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 05, 2020, 05:53:38 PM
Looks like sunny and 80 for about 3 days starting Saturday or Sunday. Lows of 60-62.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2020, 07:47:10 PM
Looks like sunny and 80 for about 3 days starting Saturday or Sunday. Lows of 60-62.
someone mentioned 80 earlier in the week I think.   I didnít believe it. Lol
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 06, 2020, 05:52:01 AM
Looks like Monday here is forecasted to be 80-82, wow.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 06, 2020, 08:17:29 AM
Looks like Monday here is forecasted to be 80-82, wow.

this is stupid weather, I may need to move lol :) , i HATE warm weather during the holiday months
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Crockett on November 06, 2020, 09:39:09 AM
this is stupid weather, I may need to move lol :) , i HATE warm weather during the holiday months

Yes, weather this warm during November is not okay. It sends deer into a nocturnal pattern right at the peak of pre-rut activity, which is unacceptable.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 06, 2020, 10:00:47 AM
Yes, weather this warm during November is not okay. It sends deer into a nocturnal pattern right at the peak of pre-rut activity, which is unacceptable.
I'm going to solve this age old deer hunting problem by taking the kids fishing tomorrow.  ;)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 06, 2020, 10:24:07 AM
Yes, weather this warm during November is not okay. It sends deer into a nocturnal pattern right at the peak of pre-rut activity, which is unacceptable.

Definitely won't make things easier on us for sure.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 06, 2020, 10:43:15 AM
I'm going to solve this age old deer hunting problem by taking the kids fishing tomorrow. 
there you go, go wet a hook... me and a good friend of mine been wearing the crappie out nice big slabs too... we been catching them bout 15 to 18 ft water on medium size minnows or white yellow color jig at the pump staion on the river, were going again tomorrow.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clay on November 06, 2020, 06:33:16 PM
A warm November usually translates to beautiful weather.. drop the hammer in December. ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 06, 2020, 06:39:55 PM
A warm November usually translates to beautiful weather.. drop the hammer in December. ::fingerscrossed::
need to drop the hammer when it counts, january....
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 06, 2020, 08:37:17 PM
A warm November usually translates to beautiful weather.. drop the hammer in December. ::fingerscrossed::

Yep get the warm out of itís system in November and then itíll be just in time for a pattern change come early December or so.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 06, 2020, 09:25:40 PM
Yep get the warm out of itís system in November and then itíll be just in time for a pattern change come early December or so.
it will just be a dry cold , December is second driest month year average wise ... January when action picks up .
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Crockett on November 07, 2020, 07:14:37 PM
Predictably, I saw one lone deer at mid-morning, as the heat climbed, and she looked like she was as miserable as I was. I stopped for lunch along a creek on my hike out and the skeeters and biting flies turns my arms into one big welt. This is not supposed to happen in November.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 07, 2020, 07:27:08 PM
Mosquitoes are back here as well after a brief respite after two good frosts.  I guess they crawled back out from under the fallen foliage after they realized the cold snap was a false alarm.  Their party continues. 

Appears upper 70's for the next several days, then a "cold" front drops temps to upper 60s/lower 70's.  Still far above normal for almost mid-November. 

Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 07, 2020, 07:43:55 PM
it will just be a dry cold , December is second driest month year average wise ... January when action picks up .

That isn't true. August, September, and October are our driest months.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 07, 2020, 08:17:18 PM
That isn't true. August, September, and October are our driest months.
august and September is helped by getting quite a bit afternoon thunderstorms which are scattered of course ...
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 08, 2020, 12:33:32 PM
81 in the early afternoon in November ceases to be "Indian Summer."  It's just plain summer in November.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 09, 2020, 07:19:13 PM
12zgfs says warm weather will pretty much hang around most of this month. ;D
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Crockett on November 09, 2020, 09:44:34 PM
81 in the early afternoon in November ceases to be "Indian Summer."  It's just plain summer in November.

It was 76 degrees when I stepped out of my vehicle at my hunting spot on top of the mountain yesterday afternoon. I was actually taken aback by just how stifling it felt. It was just plain hot. I don't know if I've ever personally experienced late fall temps this warm. I'm sure I have and have forgotten them, but I do know that this is too warm for my liking.

And I'm not personally opposed to stretches of sunny, mild weather so that we can enjoy outdoors activities. The older I get the more I hate cold weather (even if it does make deer hunting better to a point). But at 75-80 degrees, a lot of those outdoors activities (like hiking) begin to become a little uncomfortable. I don't like to sweat in November!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 10, 2020, 05:32:53 AM
Have you all forgotten November 2016 and December 2015?

Christmas Eve 2015 showcased 80 degrees and severe weather.

Early November 2016 had temperatures in the mid 80s in Knoxville, I recall.

I daresay that this, while not normal, is becoming more frequent in a warmer climate.

The 1991-2020 normals will be fascinating to compare to those of 1961-1990.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 10, 2020, 05:41:43 AM
Have you all forgotten November 2016 and December 2015?

Christmas Eve 2015 showcased 80 degrees and severe weather.

Early November 2016 had temperatures in the mid 80s in Knoxville, I recall.

I daresay that this, while not normal, is becoming more frequent in a warmer climate.

The 1991-2020 normals will be fascinating to compare to those of 1961-1990.
nice research .  Your spot on.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 10, 2020, 07:14:16 AM
Have you all forgotten November 2016 and December 2015?

Christmas Eve 2015 showcased 80 degrees and severe weather.

Early November 2016 had temperatures in the mid 80s in Knoxville, I recall.

I daresay that this, while not normal, is becoming more frequent in a warmer climate.

The 1991-2020 normals will be fascinating to compare to those of 1961-1990.

Lol or just last year 2019 we had almost a week stretch of like 70 around Christmas it was beautiful.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 10, 2020, 07:16:00 AM
12zgfs says warm weather will pretty much hang around most of this month. ;D

15 day is showing it turning much nicer after today for NW TN.  Couple days of 58-60 for highs and lows of 38-42.  The rest looks mid 60s and mid 40s.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 10, 2020, 08:09:33 AM
gosh it's hard to believe veterans day outbreak was 18 years ago!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 10, 2020, 08:24:56 AM
15 day is showing it turning much nicer after today for NW TN.  Couple days of 58-60 for highs and lows of 38-42.  The rest looks mid 60s and mid 40s.
not sure what model there going by there
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 10, 2020, 09:50:18 AM
Have you all forgotten November 2016 and December 2015?

Christmas Eve 2015 showcased 80 degrees and severe weather.

Early November 2016 had temperatures in the mid 80s in Knoxville, I recall.

I daresay that this, while not normal, is becoming more frequent in a warmer climate.

The 1991-2020 normals will be fascinating to compare to those of 1961-1990.
We had horrible flooding in 2015. I think it rained like 8 inches on Christmas day. Thundered all day long.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 10, 2020, 10:08:33 AM
Lol or just last year 2019 we had almost a week stretch of like 70 around Christmas it was beautiful.

beautiful is relative lol....Christmas is supposed to be cold, I hate any warm weather during holidays LOL!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 10, 2020, 10:28:54 AM
beautiful is relative lol....Christmas is supposed to be cold, I hate any warm weather during holidays LOL!

We know :)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 10, 2020, 11:09:20 AM
beautiful is relative lol....Christmas is supposed to be cold, I hate any warm weather during holidays LOL!
welcome to climate change man....
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 10, 2020, 11:54:23 AM
welcome to climate change man....

While I am not a total global warming climate change person, I do believe things are cyclic and we are definitely in the warm cycle LOL
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 10, 2020, 12:04:18 PM
While I am not a total global warming climate change person, I do believe things are cyclic and we are definitely in the warm cycle LOL
actually think I read up on some stuff where said weíre should be heading toward a colder cycle.with a near record solar minimum .
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 10, 2020, 02:04:33 PM
Unreal.  My weather station says 85.4 at 3 in the afternoon on November 10th. And it feels it.   
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 10, 2020, 03:26:25 PM
Since we've moved to monthly threads, which I like, this belongs here in the November thread:

Happy Birthday to the United States Marine Corps! Thank you to all the Devil Dogs on the board who volunteered and served to protect us and our nation.  ::flag::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 10, 2020, 03:50:09 PM
Since we've moved to monthly threads, which I like, this belongs here in the November thread:

Happy Birthday to the United States Marine Corps! Thank you to all the Devil Dogs on the board who volunteered and served to protect us and our nation.  ::flag::
sempfer fi. Usmc 82 - 86 served . Thanks
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 10, 2020, 06:00:55 PM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

No severe weather or cool weather anytime soon. 

May 2012/2018/Early Dec 1998 pattern to a tee. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 10, 2020, 08:46:50 PM
Looks like another frost on tap for next Monday night. Next week looks to be Much cooler than this week. Multiple lows below 40 and highs of 58-65.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 10, 2020, 10:37:45 PM
Looks like another frost on tap for next Monday night. Next week looks to be Much cooler than this week. Multiple lows below 40 and highs of 58-65.
after next week back in the 70s ...
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 10, 2020, 11:09:35 PM
Hard to believe this but 1 year ago this week I recorded a low temp of 16 degrees. The coldest temperature I saw all winter was in fall.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 11, 2020, 05:48:32 AM
after next week back in the 70s ...

Better be in the woods as much as possible from today through next Wednesday. Might be the best weather we get for prime time rut if it flips back warm after mid next week.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: snowdog on November 11, 2020, 11:51:00 AM
after next week back in the 70s ...

Not surprising considering we had a cool to temperate early fall. We'll likely get a nice cold snap soon although if it wants to stay above normal and flip around Christmas though first half of January, I'll allow it.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 11, 2020, 12:58:09 PM
Hmmm. The trend on the GFS has signaled more fronts moving through. I see a couple marks in the 70s and that's it

Looks like an N to AN rest of the month, but I wouldn't call it a torch
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 11, 2020, 01:15:22 PM
Hmmm. The trend on the GFS has signaled more fronts moving through. I see a couple marks in the 70s and that's it

Looks like an N to AN rest of the month, but I wouldn't call it a torch

Yea as of now I am seeing 1-2 days at 70 and the rest 50's and 60's. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: NismoWx on November 11, 2020, 01:54:30 PM
Better be in the woods as much as possible from today through next Wednesday. Might be the best weather we get for prime time rut if it flips back warm after mid next week.
I'm hunting tomorrow morning. Saw a good buck on Saturn Parkway in Spring Hill earlier.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 11, 2020, 05:21:41 PM
This front combined with Etaís moisture is really putting down the rain. Forecast was for up to 3/4Ē, but Iím now at 2.06Ē and itís still coming down hard.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 12, 2020, 06:02:37 AM
Long range 0z euro picking up lo 70s  start of thanksgiving week as the southeast ridge builds
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 12, 2020, 07:12:19 AM
Little frost here this morning and looks like another frost Sunday night and Monday
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 12, 2020, 07:52:42 AM
Little frost here this morning and looks like another frost Sunday night and Monday
still not a hard freeze in sight  Which weíre past due .
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 12, 2020, 08:13:42 AM
still not a hard freeze in sight  Which weíre past due .

I thought most everyone outside of the UHIs got toasted back on the 2nd or 3rd? Think we got down to 27.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 12, 2020, 08:26:41 AM
I thought most everyone outside of the UHIs got toasted back on the 2nd or 3rd? Think we got down to 27.
yeah. Your right coach .. some places got good freeze.  Looking ahead mostly I was applying
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 12, 2020, 08:38:40 AM
well last November was freezing and this year its been mostly warm, maybe we will have a December flip from last years warm temps and this year it will be cold :)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2020, 04:37:36 PM
I know we've had a few very warm days this month, but the rest of the month looks like a normal finish.

Reading this forum would make one think temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above normal for the rest of fall and winter, however.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2020, 04:43:25 PM
still not a hard freeze in sight  Which weíre past due .

It could easily change, but the most recent runs of the GFS have said otherwise.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 12, 2020, 05:56:23 PM
I'm not complaining much about the continued mild weather.  I've only used the heat pump a few mornings so far.  For 4 days straight, I've been able to open the windows.  Considering all the other "stuff" I'm handling, I really don't feel the need for a high electric bill. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 12, 2020, 05:58:56 PM
I'm not complaining much about the continued mild weather.  I've only used the heat pump a few mornings so far.  For 4 days straight, I've been able to open the windows.  Considering all the other "stuff" I'm handling, I really don't feel the need for a high electric bill.
exactly...  agree, best thing about a mild winter is save on the energy bill
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 14, 2020, 09:41:00 AM
That's the truth.

I'd be perfectly happy with a mild winter if I can witness a good winter storm. I'll take 3" and be happy with it. And we are all well aware that cold winters don't always mean more snowfall, and that warm winters don't always mean less.

2013-2014 in Nashville was our "snow dome" year when we received very little snow amid a very cold winter.

2015-2016 was a very warm winter overall, but Nashville cashed in on an 8" event in January. I remember Knoxville also had a couple of notable events as well.

I was luckier than most last season as I saw 2" in one event while most of you struggled to have anything more than one inch.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: wmp600 on November 14, 2020, 02:31:40 PM
This has been a wonderful fall. It's been nice to actually have different seasons for a change instead of one long summer. It would be nice to have some winter as long as it's not bitter cold.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 14, 2020, 03:38:23 PM
That's the truth.

I'd be perfectly happy with a mild winter if I can witness a good winter storm. I'll take 3" and be happy with it. And we are all well aware that cold winters don't always mean more snowfall, and that warm winters don't always mean less.

2013-2014 in Nashville was our "snow dome" year when we received very little snow amid a very cold winter.

2015-2016 was a very warm winter overall, but Nashville cashed in on an 8" event in January. I remember Knoxville also had a couple of notable events as well.


Correct.  Some of the coldest winters can be driest if the storm systems are suppressed, or they simply don't develop.  In a strong northwest flow pattern, clippers are usually all we have to produce snow around here.  A mild winter with one decent snow (3-4") would be a win for me at this point.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 14, 2020, 06:19:48 PM
If storms can gain supercelluar characteristics there could be a short-lived but noticeable tornado threat in the northern Ozarks of Missouri tonight.   

These are the type of events that can overperform.  Once they cross into KY/TN the instability lowers to nothing so these won't be a concern for our area.   
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on November 15, 2020, 11:08:39 AM
Starting to see a Thanksgiving SVR setup.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 15, 2020, 12:19:13 PM
Starting to see a Thanksgiving SVR setup.

We will have to wait and see.  I have seen a model or two showing it becoming a cut-off low. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 15, 2020, 01:59:28 PM
We will have to wait and see.  I have seen a model or two showing it becoming a cut-off low.
gfs been hinting at a cut off low
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 16, 2020, 06:50:59 AM
Seems like temps undercut overnight. OHX was showing a low of 36.

Well, Smyrna airport is showing a current temperature of 29 degrees a few minutes before 7:00.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 16, 2020, 07:33:57 AM
Seems like temps undercut overnight. OHX was showing a low of 36.

Well, Smyrna airport is showing a current temperature of 29 degrees a few minutes before 7:00.
low 30 here with forecast low of 34... skies cleared out faster than forecasted ...
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 16, 2020, 07:49:49 AM
Yep got a good feeze and another coming tomorrow night.  This November has been far from a torch in my opinion.  I think some of ya'll are starting to lose it from old age.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 16, 2020, 08:03:49 AM
Yep got a good feeze and another coming tomorrow night.  This November has been far from a torch in my opinion.  I think some of ya'll are starting to lose it from old age.

well there was several days in a row with mid 70's and low 80's , for November that is quite torchy :) ...it may end up all averaging out though
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 16, 2020, 08:29:39 AM
Yep got a good feeze and another coming tomorrow night.  This November has been far from a torch in my opinion.  I think some of ya'll are starting to lose it from old age.

Weird response.

 ::scratch::

Just noting that temperatures were colder than forecast overnight, that's all.

Yes, November has been warmer than normal up to this point.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 16, 2020, 08:49:06 AM
It has definitely been an above normal November. Once the month is settled, I wouldn't call it a torch, but statewide highs in the low to mid 80s in November are likely for the record books.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 16, 2020, 09:01:19 AM
Weird response.

 ::scratch::

Just noting that temperatures were colder than forecast overnight, that's all.

Yes, November has been warmer than normal up to this point.

Wasn't directed at your response.  Just stating 3-4 days of warm last week and everyone was up in arms yelling torch and cancel winter.  Just busting people's balls on here.  Schneezy is easy to bust lol.  Ive lurked on here for years and most posters tend to inflate everything.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 16, 2020, 09:56:29 AM
Wasn't directed at your response.  Just stating 3-4 days of warm last week and everyone was up in arms yelling torch and cancel winter.  Just busting people's balls on here.  Schneezy is easy to bust lol.  Ive lurked on here for years and most posters tend to inflate everything.
your torch going start mid January to most or if not all of February. At least for the winter part of it...
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 16, 2020, 10:02:30 AM
Wasn't directed at your response.  Just stating 3-4 days of warm last week and everyone was up in arms yelling torch and cancel winter.  Just busting people's balls on here.  Schneezy is easy to bust lol.  Ive lurked on here for years and most posters tend to inflate everything.

it wasn't just 3-4 days lol, it was a solid week of 70+ temps in November :)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 16, 2020, 10:06:01 AM
December 20th to January 15th. Be our best shot score a nice winter storm ... calling it now January 3rd major winter storm for most state wide .. dominated mainly by sleet .. but after the mid of January ... mmmm do I even have to tell u. Lol
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 16, 2020, 10:30:08 AM
December 20th to January 15th. Be our best shot score a nice winter storm ... calling it now January 3rd major winter storm for most state wide .. dominated mainly by sleet .. but after the mid of January ... mmmm do I even have to tell u. Lol

Bruce if I had to put money on anyone here it would probably be you.  Seems many of your predictions come to life.  But I am glad some don't lol mainly severe
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 16, 2020, 12:47:49 PM
Models are reaching a stronger consensus on the AO going negative by early December. You can view the latest update here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif


Our chances for cold air extending to the  Tennessee Valley are greater with a -AO. 


In the meantime, is anyone else eyeing potential severe weather Thanksgiving week? The GFS hints at one or two strong fronts moving through next week. This may be of concern as we draw near.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 16, 2020, 12:58:04 PM
In the meantime, is anyone else eyeing potential severe weather Thanksgiving week? The GFS hints at one or two strong fronts moving through next week. This may be of concern as we draw near.
I'm watching next week's weather closely as it will have a big impact on our Thanksgiving plans. We have friends who aren't traveling the way they usually do because of COVID so will be hosting here, IF the weather is dry and we can have tables set apart from each other out on our patio. We can keep a fire in our chiminea and manage if the temps are a bit chilly, but if it rains we're out of luck.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 16, 2020, 01:14:43 PM
I'm watching next week's weather closely as it will have a big impact on our Thanksgiving plans. We have friends who aren't traveling the way they usually do because of COVID so will be hosting here, IF the weather is dry and we can have tables set apart from each other out on our patio. We can keep a fire in our chiminea and manage if the temps are a bit chilly, but if it rains we're out of luck.
i got my eye out around that period too  strong trough coming down on euro around turkey day . Going negative tilted
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 16, 2020, 02:04:02 PM
i got my eye out around that period too  strong trough coming down on euro around turkey day . Going negative tilted

Is it looking like a heavy rain event also?  Historically we usually get a heavy rain event around that time.  Usually just before duck season opens.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 16, 2020, 03:33:32 PM
I'm watching next week's weather closely as it will have a big impact on our Thanksgiving plans. We have friends who aren't traveling the way they usually do because of COVID so will be hosting here, IF the weather is dry and we can have tables set apart from each other out on our patio. We can keep a fire in our chiminea and manage if the temps are a bit chilly, but if it rains we're out of luck.

Too bad Thanksgiving isn't this week.  It looks sunny all the way through the weekend with mild 60's returning. It would've been perfect for a Thanksgiving Charlie Brown style.

(http://basementrejects.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/charlie-brown-thanksgiving-1973-table-dinner.jpg)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 16, 2020, 06:04:29 PM
Too bad Thanksgiving isn't this week.  It looks sunny all the way through the weekend with mild 60's returning. It would've been perfect for a Thanksgiving Charlie Brown style.

(http://basementrejects.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/charlie-brown-thanksgiving-1973-table-dinner.jpg)
That's actually what we've been calling it - our Charlie Brown Thanksgiving!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: BRUCE on November 18, 2020, 12:48:42 PM
12z euro today , day before turkey day has be watched for severe wx potential , particular ark la Tex towards western parts midsouth ... low level shear is insane. Best instability little further west
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 18, 2020, 04:53:48 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html

Elevated fire danger tomorrow in NW TN and West KY.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 18, 2020, 07:32:21 PM
12z euro today , day before turkey day has be watched for severe wx potential , particular ark la Tex towards western parts midsouth ... low level shear is insane. Best instability little further west

Severe potential looks all but nonexistent for our area next week now. The GFS has turned a notch cooler. Will be interesting to be what happens south or SW of here, as Bruce mentioned.

Average to below average temperatures after Thanksgiving are more favorable in today's forecasts than those from Monday or yesterday. GFS has snowfall for the Smokies by the end of the month. Maybe there's a change on the horizon; however I have enough sense at this point to know a few runs of a model on one particular day is a drop in the bucket.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 21, 2020, 02:17:42 PM
The Euro, GFS, and CFS are drastically different at the end of the month.

The Euro would be a severe weather event, the earlier GFS shows a heavy rain event, but the latest GFS shows a Gulf Low, and the CFS said what storm?   
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 21, 2020, 05:13:15 PM
Ok.  Indian Summer was nice.  But I'm over it at this point.  Be gone!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on November 21, 2020, 07:23:31 PM
I'm hoping that between the temperature swings and dry conditions over the last week that my slight dry cough/throat tickle/sniffles over the last few days are because of just that, and not the dreaded word I won't say here. There has definitely been a small outbreak at work over the last week even though I don't spend much time at all in the office. Let's please get some rain in here to knock some of this dust out of the air. Starting to get a little freaked out over here.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 21, 2020, 07:36:37 PM
I'm hoping that between the temperature swings and dry conditions over the last week that my slight dry cough/throat tickle/sniffles over the last few days are because of just that, and not the dreaded word I won't say here. There has definitely been a small outbreak at work over the last week even though I don't spend much time at all in the office. Let's please get some rain in here to knock some of this dust out of the air. Starting to get a little freaked out over here.
Fingers crossed for you! Seasonal allergies this year are far more stressful now than they usually are.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 21, 2020, 09:29:08 PM
I'm hoping that between the temperature swings and dry conditions over the last week that my slight dry cough/throat tickle/sniffles over the last few days are because of just that, and not the dreaded word I won't say here. There has definitely been a small outbreak at work over the last week even though I don't spend much time at all in the office. Let's please get some rain in here to knock some of this dust out of the air. Starting to get a little freaked out over here.

I hear you- at the risk of talking about ďthatĒ topic, Iím on Day 6 out from being exposed to a positive case. Iím waiting on test results.

Every little throat tickle and stuffy nose will get your attention. Stay well.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 21, 2020, 09:38:37 PM
I'm hoping that between the temperature swings and dry conditions over the last week that my slight dry cough/throat tickle/sniffles over the last few days are because of just that, and not the dreaded word I won't say here. There has definitely been a small outbreak at work over the last week even though I don't spend much time at all in the office. Let's please get some rain in here to knock some of this dust out of the air. Starting to get a little freaked out over here.

Be well, my friend. Keep us updated.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 22, 2020, 08:17:04 AM
Fingers crossed for you! Seasonal allergies this year are far more stressful now than they usually are.

I hear you.  As a youngin' I had terrible allergies and asthma. Some of that has carried over into my later years, and whenever I feel my chest tighten a bit from allergies this fall, there is always some trepidation about the "other."
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 22, 2020, 09:17:30 PM
Looks wet this week. 3-4Ē widespread. I think Iím going to wind up with over 70Ē of rain for a third consecutive year. Iím not too far off.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 23, 2020, 07:40:40 AM
Good frost at my home this morning. Looks like a nice Thanksgiving week scene outside.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 24, 2020, 06:51:38 AM
Itís worth mentioning thereís a marginal risk on storms tomorrow: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20201124_0700.html (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20201124_0700.html)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 24, 2020, 08:23:55 AM
Good frost at my home this morning. Looks like a nice Thanksgiving week scene outside.

Quite the spread on temps. I had 41 at 6am on the hill at elevation, across town official reading was 27.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Crockett on November 24, 2020, 10:31:57 AM
Quite the spread on temps. I had 41 at 6am on the hill at elevation, across town official reading was 27.

The first thing I do every morning is check temps at my location and down in the valley in Oak Ridge. It's always easy to tell when that south wind has kicked up overnight!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 24, 2020, 10:45:30 AM
I'm ready for the hard freeze to come through. The ants in my yard are relentless this year. Those effers need to freeze to death already.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 24, 2020, 01:27:05 PM
I'm ready for the hard freeze to come through. The ants in my yard are relentless this year. Those effers need to freeze to death already.
I once heard on a discovery channel show that all the ants in the world weigh about the same as all the people in the world. That's a horrifying thought. Not sure if it's true anymore though.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 25, 2020, 08:58:33 AM
There is a small window today for severe weather.  I would probably expect to see at least Southern Middle TN down into Alabama get upgraded to a Slight Risk of severe weather as the HRRR is showing some cells that have just enough instability to go severe if it verifies across Central Alabama up into Southern Middle and Southeastern TN.   

It is far from a big-time outbreak, but it wouldn't be out of the question to see a storm or two trigger a tornado warning this afternoon in Southern Middle to perhaps Southeastern TN. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: snowdog on November 25, 2020, 09:53:49 AM
For those of you in the southern half of TN...

https://twitter.com/NashSevereWx/status/1331625820138385409 (https://twitter.com/NashSevereWx/status/1331625820138385409)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 25, 2020, 02:24:11 PM
Doesnít look like anything else is on the table to me. Absolutely nothing popping behind this initial round of rain.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 25, 2020, 06:28:40 PM
Doesnít look like anything else is on the table to me. Absolutely nothing popping behind this initial round of rain.

That rain shield over AL/GA lingered too long.   
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 26, 2020, 10:40:21 AM
Beautiful morning here for Thanksgiving.  Already 60 before noon.  Yeah, not exactly right for the season, but going to make the best of it. 

Hope everyone has a safe and blessed Thanksgiving day.