Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Monthly Discussions and General Weather => Topic started by: Thundersnow on November 01, 2020, 06:36:27 AM

Title: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 01, 2020, 06:36:27 AM
Happy November!

Freeze warning for tonight and tomorrow morning. Protect those plants you care about keeping alive outside a little longer.

Warming trend later in the week.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 01, 2020, 08:05:25 AM
Happy November!

Freeze warnI ing for tonight and tomorrow morning. Protect those plants you care about keeping alive outside a little longer.

Warming trend later in the week.
love the warming trend seeing ... nice warm up coming .dare I say might see 80 again ? Or ask
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 01, 2020, 12:42:33 PM
Here is how November is looking:

1) First freeze tonight for most TN locations

2) Quick warmup this week, possibly into next

3) Tropical system expected w/ enhanced SER

4) Cool down to N or BN conditions by mid-month
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 01, 2020, 01:05:21 PM
First official weather observation from Nashville 150 years ago today.

Posted on NWS FB page:

Quote
It was 150 years ago today, on November 1, 1870, that the NWS (then the U.S. Army Signal Corps) transmitted the very first weather observation for the city of Nashville, TN.

11/01/1870 at 7am: Barometric pressure that morning was 30.08", temperature 51
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 01, 2020, 04:03:46 PM
Mid to late Nov:

1) MJO trending toward the negative side, into the second quadrant (phases 7 and 8 ).

2) AO forecast to flip negative.


If this holds, I'm thinking some of you in our higher elevations catch some light snowfall this month.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on November 01, 2020, 05:05:36 PM
Tough drive from Chattanooga to Nashville today with the gusty winds. I drive a lower profile vehicle and it was still a struggle to keep it on the road at times. I saw a few near accidents also.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Brad on November 01, 2020, 06:03:05 PM
My wife just got home and said she saw a large meteorite on her drive home tonight. Bright and green fireball with a tail. Will be curious to see if anyone captured it on dash cams or security cameras.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 01, 2020, 06:53:54 PM
My wife just got home and said she saw a large meteorite on her drive home tonight. Bright and green fireball with a tail. Will be curious to see if anyone captured it on dash cams or security cameras.

I think there was some kind of near hit asteroid supposed to approach just before election.  ::wow::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 01, 2020, 07:13:38 PM
My wife just got home and said she saw a large meteorite on her drive home tonight. Bright and green fireball with a tail. Will be curious to see if anyone captured it on dash cams or security cameras.
It's 2020, that's the aliens showing up to rig the election.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on November 01, 2020, 09:38:00 PM
My wife just got home and said she saw a large meteorite on her drive home tonight. Bright and green fireball with a tail. Will be curious to see if anyone captured it on dash cams or security cameras.

I saw it also!! I was on S Mt Juliet Rd a little before 6 headed to Publix and BOOM, huge streaking Bolide that exploded in greens, blues and oranges in the southern sky. I've been fortunate enough to catch 5 or 6 in my life and that was by far the best one.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Eric on November 01, 2020, 09:46:55 PM
Re: the fireball, James Spann has numerous pics and videos on his FB page.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clay on November 02, 2020, 06:22:09 AM
Looks like no freeze at BNA with 34 this AM. Most even most city wx stations in the upper 20s to 32F. Really wonder if the increasing air traffic at BNA is creating at microclimate similar to MEM.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on November 02, 2020, 06:57:30 AM
I'm three miles from BNA and had 31 this morning.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JHart on November 02, 2020, 08:56:23 AM
We managed 25F in the Lascassas Valley this morning.  With the castor bean and coleus plants melting into putty under the rising sun, the growing season is over out here.  ::cold::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 02, 2020, 09:18:59 AM
We reached 30 in Fairview
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 02, 2020, 09:47:32 AM
Dropped to 30.7 last night. We only dipped below freezing for just over an hour and there was wind the whole time, so there really wasn't any frost to speak of. I suspect there isn't any plant damage either. Tonight may be a different story. Under calm winds I suspect we will be in the upper 20's in the outlying areas.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 02, 2020, 05:34:00 PM
Finally got home to check. Got down to 29 on the hill. Dropping much quicker this evening. Be interesting to see if the low lying areas get colder tonight. I bet we stay a little warmer at elevation. Wood stove is lit with a mix of white oak and locust.  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 03, 2020, 06:50:35 AM
Does look like we Are going to flirt with hitting 80 degrees by early next week  before another weaker cold front approaches late next week
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 03, 2020, 07:01:57 AM
28 last night. Spent 8 hours below freezing. That
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 03, 2020, 07:05:53 AM
28 last night. Spent 8 hours below freezing. That
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 03, 2020, 11:33:09 AM
Today
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Eric on November 03, 2020, 12:10:59 PM
Today
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 03, 2020, 01:27:19 PM
With the pattern that we are heading into and climatology, we aren't getting out of this month without at least one threat of severe weather.   

Bruce, go ahead and like your heart out  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 03, 2020, 04:01:20 PM
I spent a beautiful fall day in the woods near the house (I voted early).  Couldn't ask for better.

It looks like a very long stretch of dry and mild weather.  Ever warmer by the weekend with mid 70's here, leading to upper 70's early next week.  I'm going to relish every minute of it.

 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Curt on November 03, 2020, 04:18:04 PM
How could anyone not like sunny and 70 in November? After the first freeze, these warmer days with no bugs are the best.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 03, 2020, 04:29:23 PM
How could anyone not like sunny and 70 in November? After the first freeze, these warmer days with no bugs are the best.

I may be in minority but I prefer low 50's to low 60's in November, gets me in the thanksgiving mood
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 03, 2020, 04:53:05 PM
How could anyone not like sunny and 70 in November? After the first freeze, these warmer days with no bugs are the best.
hope still see few 80 even . November 84 repeat ?
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 04, 2020, 06:01:16 AM
I may be in minority but I prefer low 50's to low 60's in November, gets me in the thanksgiving mood

Yea muzzleloader season opens this weekend and rut is kicking in. Get rid of the 70s crap. Need 50s and 30s right now.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: nrgJeff on November 04, 2020, 08:38:49 AM
If dewpoints are going to get above 65 in November, well yes we deserve severe wx to track. However it looks like the low level jet will be squirrelly next week. Gap in the kinematics over our State is forecast (consistently) with more North and some Deep South with Eta remains. Guess I'll settle for just thunder.

Early next week high temps could make a run at 80 if fewer than 50% clouds. That's the tough part. However it looks like a nice weekend before the dewpoints come up. It's not that bad with the low sun angle. Still those dews without severe kind of feels like a rip-off.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 04, 2020, 09:46:52 AM
While I enjoy winter, I love a long stretch of "Indian summer" weather in the 60's & 70's a few weeks before Thanksgiving.  As Curt said, the insect population has been reduced by some frosty nights, and I can spend long days outdoors in the woods or on the deck without using bug repellent.  I live in a wooded environment so mid-summer can be miserable with mosquitoes and no-see-ums biting every last inch of exposed skin.  Haven't had that problem since our first night below freezing.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 04, 2020, 10:02:55 AM
If dewpoints are going to get above 65 in November, well yes we deserve severe wx to track. However it looks like the low level jet will be squirrelly next week. Gap in the kinematics over our State is forecast (consistently) with more North and some Deep South with Eta remains. Guess I'll settle for just thunder.

Early next week high temps could make a run at 80 if fewer than 50% clouds. That's the tough part. However it looks like a nice weekend before the dewpoints come up. It's not that bad with the low sun angle. Still those dews without severe kind of feels like a rip-off.
yeah even the Cooler bias gfs is showing nice run of warmer weather for November
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 04, 2020, 10:13:09 AM
While I enjoy winter, I love a long stretch of "Indian summer" weather in the 60's & 70's a few weeks before Thanksgiving.  As Curt said, the insect population has been reduced by some frosty nights, and I can spend long days outdoors in the woods or on the deck without using bug repellent.

Amen to the long Indian Summer. I'm fine with it right thru the first of the year. I know this is sacrilegious as a deer hunter and lover of winter weather. However, there are just too many positives that go along with warm and mostly dry in November and December. Many of us have more time off from Thanksgiving week thru the first of the year than at any other time during the year. If you have lots of farm work or enjoy outdoor pursuits(other than duck hunting) you really learn to appreciate the warm, dry, time off combo.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 04, 2020, 11:40:21 AM
Amen to the long Indian Summer. I'm fine with it right thru the first of the year. I know this is sacrilegious as a deer hunter and lover of winter weather. However, there are just too many positives that go along with warm and mostly dry in November and December. Many of us have more time off from Thanksgiving week thru the first of the year than at any other time during the year. If you have lots of farm work or enjoy outdoor pursuits(other than duck hunting) you really learn to appreciate the warm, dry, time off combo.

I love dry and warm for duck hunting, as long as north of here is Froze solid!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 04, 2020, 01:15:42 PM
While I enjoy winter, I love a long stretch of "Indian summer" weather in the 60's & 70's a few weeks before Thanksgiving.  As Curt said, the insect population has been reduced by some frosty nights, and I can spend long days outdoors in the woods or on the deck without using bug repellent.  I live in a wooded environment so mid-summer can be miserable with mosquitoes and no-see-ums biting every last inch of exposed skin.  Haven't had that problem since our first night below freezing.

Not sure where you live but the mosquitos were out in full force yesterday just 2 days after our first freeze!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 04, 2020, 02:40:50 PM
Not sure where you live but the mosquitos were out in full force yesterday just 2 days after our first freeze!
wasps still flying around also ...
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 04, 2020, 02:58:46 PM
Not sure where you live but the mosquitos were out in full force yesterday just 2 days after our first freeze!

On the east end about 30 miles from the NC border.  Spent 4 hours in the woods yesterday, and no bites even with short sleeves.  However, with upper 70's returning this weekend some zombie skeeters might return from the grave.   ::wow::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 04, 2020, 07:03:44 PM
The Evansville IN/Henderson KY EF-3 tornado day appeared in the CPC 8-14 analog set today.   
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 04, 2020, 07:06:47 PM
Any severe mischief that occurs next week or in the general 8-16 day timeframe is probably going to be more over the I-44 corridor into the Upper Midwest/Ontario.  That is where the best jet energy lies. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 04, 2020, 08:50:23 PM
Yep. The jet stream has dramatically lifted for now. That may change by the third week of the month. The AO is expected to be negative, according to the latest model simulations. The trend has remained consistent for the past week.

For the time being, warm weather, tropical storm development, and possible severe weather will dominate weather discussion.

I expect snowpack will rapidly begin building across the Plains after Thanksgiving and most Tennesseans will see their first flakes flying by late Nov. or early Dec.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 05, 2020, 12:24:07 PM
If anything, 2020 has taught me to live in (and enjoy) the moment because it's all we have--the right now.  The weather is nearly perfect, and will be through the middle of next week. I plan on making the most of it. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 05, 2020, 01:53:37 PM
Yep. The jet stream has dramatically lifted for now. That may change by the third week of the month. The AO is expected to be negative, according to the latest model simulations. The trend has remained consistent for the past week.

For the time being, warm weather, tropical storm development, and possible severe weather will dominate weather discussion.

I expect snowpack will rapidly begin building across the Plains after Thanksgiving and most Tennesseans will see their first flakes flying by late Nov. or early Dec.
in order to build a snowpack  In plains we
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 05, 2020, 02:29:43 PM
in order to build a snowpack  In plains we
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 05, 2020, 02:38:33 PM
in order to build a snowpack  In plains we
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 05, 2020, 05:44:43 PM
It only takes a few strong winter storms to build a decent snowpack.  Current GFS shows good snow accumulations developing over the next few weeks in the northwest, southern Canada, and possibly the northern Plains.  It's November, and in our current climate I don't think we could ask for better. Snow=increasing cold north of here.  That will eventually force the polar jet southward and the snow pack will follow. 

In the meantime, have a drink and enjoy the 70's.  They're groovy, man! 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 05, 2020, 05:53:38 PM
Looks like sunny and 80 for about 3 days starting Saturday or Sunday. Lows of 60-62.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 05, 2020, 07:47:10 PM
Looks like sunny and 80 for about 3 days starting Saturday or Sunday. Lows of 60-62.
someone mentioned 80 earlier in the week I think.   I didn
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 06, 2020, 05:52:01 AM
Looks like Monday here is forecasted to be 80-82, wow.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 06, 2020, 08:17:29 AM
Looks like Monday here is forecasted to be 80-82, wow.

this is stupid weather, I may need to move lol :) , i HATE warm weather during the holiday months
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Crockett on November 06, 2020, 09:39:09 AM
this is stupid weather, I may need to move lol :) , i HATE warm weather during the holiday months

Yes, weather this warm during November is not okay. It sends deer into a nocturnal pattern right at the peak of pre-rut activity, which is unacceptable.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 06, 2020, 10:00:47 AM
Yes, weather this warm during November is not okay. It sends deer into a nocturnal pattern right at the peak of pre-rut activity, which is unacceptable.
I'm going to solve this age old deer hunting problem by taking the kids fishing tomorrow.  ;)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 06, 2020, 10:24:07 AM
Yes, weather this warm during November is not okay. It sends deer into a nocturnal pattern right at the peak of pre-rut activity, which is unacceptable.

Definitely won't make things easier on us for sure.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 06, 2020, 10:43:15 AM
I'm going to solve this age old deer hunting problem by taking the kids fishing tomorrow. 
there you go, go wet a hook... me and a good friend of mine been wearing the crappie out nice big slabs too... we been catching them bout 15 to 18 ft water on medium size minnows or white yellow color jig at the pump staion on the river, were going again tomorrow.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clay on November 06, 2020, 06:33:16 PM
A warm November usually translates to beautiful weather.. drop the hammer in December. ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 06, 2020, 06:39:55 PM
A warm November usually translates to beautiful weather.. drop the hammer in December. ::fingerscrossed::
need to drop the hammer when it counts, january....
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 06, 2020, 08:37:17 PM
A warm November usually translates to beautiful weather.. drop the hammer in December. ::fingerscrossed::

Yep get the warm out of it
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 06, 2020, 09:25:40 PM
Yep get the warm out of it
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Crockett on November 07, 2020, 07:14:37 PM
Predictably, I saw one lone deer at mid-morning, as the heat climbed, and she looked like she was as miserable as I was. I stopped for lunch along a creek on my hike out and the skeeters and biting flies turns my arms into one big welt. This is not supposed to happen in November.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 07, 2020, 07:27:08 PM
Mosquitoes are back here as well after a brief respite after two good frosts.  I guess they crawled back out from under the fallen foliage after they realized the cold snap was a false alarm.  Their party continues. 

Appears upper 70's for the next several days, then a "cold" front drops temps to upper 60s/lower 70's.  Still far above normal for almost mid-November. 

Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 07, 2020, 07:43:55 PM
it will just be a dry cold , December is second driest month year average wise ... January when action picks up .

That isn't true. August, September, and October are our driest months.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 07, 2020, 08:17:18 PM
That isn't true. August, September, and October are our driest months.
august and September is helped by getting quite a bit afternoon thunderstorms which are scattered of course ...
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 08, 2020, 12:33:32 PM
81 in the early afternoon in November ceases to be "Indian Summer."  It's just plain summer in November.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 09, 2020, 07:19:13 PM
12zgfs says warm weather will pretty much hang around most of this month. ;D
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Crockett on November 09, 2020, 09:44:34 PM
81 in the early afternoon in November ceases to be "Indian Summer."  It's just plain summer in November.

It was 76 degrees when I stepped out of my vehicle at my hunting spot on top of the mountain yesterday afternoon. I was actually taken aback by just how stifling it felt. It was just plain hot. I don't know if I've ever personally experienced late fall temps this warm. I'm sure I have and have forgotten them, but I do know that this is too warm for my liking.

And I'm not personally opposed to stretches of sunny, mild weather so that we can enjoy outdoors activities. The older I get the more I hate cold weather (even if it does make deer hunting better to a point). But at 75-80 degrees, a lot of those outdoors activities (like hiking) begin to become a little uncomfortable. I don't like to sweat in November!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 10, 2020, 05:32:53 AM
Have you all forgotten November 2016 and December 2015?

Christmas Eve 2015 showcased 80 degrees and severe weather.

Early November 2016 had temperatures in the mid 80s in Knoxville, I recall.

I daresay that this, while not normal, is becoming more frequent in a warmer climate.

The 1991-2020 normals will be fascinating to compare to those of 1961-1990.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 10, 2020, 05:41:43 AM
Have you all forgotten November 2016 and December 2015?

Christmas Eve 2015 showcased 80 degrees and severe weather.

Early November 2016 had temperatures in the mid 80s in Knoxville, I recall.

I daresay that this, while not normal, is becoming more frequent in a warmer climate.

The 1991-2020 normals will be fascinating to compare to those of 1961-1990.
nice research .  Your spot on.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 10, 2020, 07:14:16 AM
Have you all forgotten November 2016 and December 2015?

Christmas Eve 2015 showcased 80 degrees and severe weather.

Early November 2016 had temperatures in the mid 80s in Knoxville, I recall.

I daresay that this, while not normal, is becoming more frequent in a warmer climate.

The 1991-2020 normals will be fascinating to compare to those of 1961-1990.

Lol or just last year 2019 we had almost a week stretch of like 70 around Christmas it was beautiful.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 10, 2020, 07:16:00 AM
12zgfs says warm weather will pretty much hang around most of this month. ;D

15 day is showing it turning much nicer after today for NW TN.  Couple days of 58-60 for highs and lows of 38-42.  The rest looks mid 60s and mid 40s.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 10, 2020, 08:09:33 AM
gosh it's hard to believe veterans day outbreak was 18 years ago!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 10, 2020, 08:24:56 AM
15 day is showing it turning much nicer after today for NW TN.  Couple days of 58-60 for highs and lows of 38-42.  The rest looks mid 60s and mid 40s.
not sure what model there going by there
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 10, 2020, 09:50:18 AM
Have you all forgotten November 2016 and December 2015?

Christmas Eve 2015 showcased 80 degrees and severe weather.

Early November 2016 had temperatures in the mid 80s in Knoxville, I recall.

I daresay that this, while not normal, is becoming more frequent in a warmer climate.

The 1991-2020 normals will be fascinating to compare to those of 1961-1990.
We had horrible flooding in 2015. I think it rained like 8 inches on Christmas day. Thundered all day long.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 10, 2020, 10:08:33 AM
Lol or just last year 2019 we had almost a week stretch of like 70 around Christmas it was beautiful.

beautiful is relative lol....Christmas is supposed to be cold, I hate any warm weather during holidays LOL!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 10, 2020, 10:28:54 AM
beautiful is relative lol....Christmas is supposed to be cold, I hate any warm weather during holidays LOL!

We know :)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 10, 2020, 11:09:20 AM
beautiful is relative lol....Christmas is supposed to be cold, I hate any warm weather during holidays LOL!
welcome to climate change man....
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 10, 2020, 11:54:23 AM
welcome to climate change man....

While I am not a total global warming climate change person, I do believe things are cyclic and we are definitely in the warm cycle LOL
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 10, 2020, 12:04:18 PM
While I am not a total global warming climate change person, I do believe things are cyclic and we are definitely in the warm cycle LOL
actually think I read up on some stuff where said we
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 10, 2020, 02:04:33 PM
Unreal.  My weather station says 85.4 at 3 in the afternoon on November 10th. And it feels it.   
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 10, 2020, 03:26:25 PM
Since we've moved to monthly threads, which I like, this belongs here in the November thread:

Happy Birthday to the United States Marine Corps! Thank you to all the Devil Dogs on the board who volunteered and served to protect us and our nation.  ::flag::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 10, 2020, 03:50:09 PM
Since we've moved to monthly threads, which I like, this belongs here in the November thread:

Happy Birthday to the United States Marine Corps! Thank you to all the Devil Dogs on the board who volunteered and served to protect us and our nation.  ::flag::
sempfer fi. Usmc 82 - 86 served . Thanks
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 10, 2020, 06:00:55 PM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

No severe weather or cool weather anytime soon. 

May 2012/2018/Early Dec 1998 pattern to a tee. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 10, 2020, 08:46:50 PM
Looks like another frost on tap for next Monday night. Next week looks to be Much cooler than this week. Multiple lows below 40 and highs of 58-65.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 10, 2020, 10:37:45 PM
Looks like another frost on tap for next Monday night. Next week looks to be Much cooler than this week. Multiple lows below 40 and highs of 58-65.
after next week back in the 70s ...
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 10, 2020, 11:09:35 PM
Hard to believe this but 1 year ago this week I recorded a low temp of 16 degrees. The coldest temperature I saw all winter was in fall.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 11, 2020, 05:48:32 AM
after next week back in the 70s ...

Better be in the woods as much as possible from today through next Wednesday. Might be the best weather we get for prime time rut if it flips back warm after mid next week.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: snowdog on November 11, 2020, 11:51:00 AM
after next week back in the 70s ...

Not surprising considering we had a cool to temperate early fall. We'll likely get a nice cold snap soon although if it wants to stay above normal and flip around Christmas though first half of January, I'll allow it.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 11, 2020, 12:58:09 PM
Hmmm. The trend on the GFS has signaled more fronts moving through. I see a couple marks in the 70s and that's it

Looks like an N to AN rest of the month, but I wouldn't call it a torch
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 11, 2020, 01:15:22 PM
Hmmm. The trend on the GFS has signaled more fronts moving through. I see a couple marks in the 70s and that's it

Looks like an N to AN rest of the month, but I wouldn't call it a torch

Yea as of now I am seeing 1-2 days at 70 and the rest 50's and 60's. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: NismoWx on November 11, 2020, 01:54:30 PM
Better be in the woods as much as possible from today through next Wednesday. Might be the best weather we get for prime time rut if it flips back warm after mid next week.
I'm hunting tomorrow morning. Saw a good buck on Saturn Parkway in Spring Hill earlier.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 11, 2020, 05:21:41 PM
This front combined with Eta
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 12, 2020, 06:02:37 AM
Long range 0z euro picking up lo 70s  start of thanksgiving week as the southeast ridge builds
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 12, 2020, 07:12:19 AM
Little frost here this morning and looks like another frost Sunday night and Monday
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 12, 2020, 07:52:42 AM
Little frost here this morning and looks like another frost Sunday night and Monday
still not a hard freeze in sight  Which we
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 12, 2020, 08:13:42 AM
still not a hard freeze in sight  Which we
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 12, 2020, 08:26:41 AM
I thought most everyone outside of the UHIs got toasted back on the 2nd or 3rd? Think we got down to 27.
yeah. Your right coach .. some places got good freeze.  Looking ahead mostly I was applying
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 12, 2020, 08:38:40 AM
well last November was freezing and this year its been mostly warm, maybe we will have a December flip from last years warm temps and this year it will be cold :)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2020, 04:37:36 PM
I know we've had a few very warm days this month, but the rest of the month looks like a normal finish.

Reading this forum would make one think temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above normal for the rest of fall and winter, however.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2020, 04:43:25 PM
still not a hard freeze in sight  Which we
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 12, 2020, 05:56:23 PM
I'm not complaining much about the continued mild weather.  I've only used the heat pump a few mornings so far.  For 4 days straight, I've been able to open the windows.  Considering all the other "stuff" I'm handling, I really don't feel the need for a high electric bill. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 12, 2020, 05:58:56 PM
I'm not complaining much about the continued mild weather.  I've only used the heat pump a few mornings so far.  For 4 days straight, I've been able to open the windows.  Considering all the other "stuff" I'm handling, I really don't feel the need for a high electric bill.
exactly...  agree, best thing about a mild winter is save on the energy bill
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 14, 2020, 09:41:00 AM
That's the truth.

I'd be perfectly happy with a mild winter if I can witness a good winter storm. I'll take 3" and be happy with it. And we are all well aware that cold winters don't always mean more snowfall, and that warm winters don't always mean less.

2013-2014 in Nashville was our "snow dome" year when we received very little snow amid a very cold winter.

2015-2016 was a very warm winter overall, but Nashville cashed in on an 8" event in January. I remember Knoxville also had a couple of notable events as well.

I was luckier than most last season as I saw 2" in one event while most of you struggled to have anything more than one inch.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: wmp600 on November 14, 2020, 02:31:40 PM
This has been a wonderful fall. It's been nice to actually have different seasons for a change instead of one long summer. It would be nice to have some winter as long as it's not bitter cold.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 14, 2020, 03:38:23 PM
That's the truth.

I'd be perfectly happy with a mild winter if I can witness a good winter storm. I'll take 3" and be happy with it. And we are all well aware that cold winters don't always mean more snowfall, and that warm winters don't always mean less.

2013-2014 in Nashville was our "snow dome" year when we received very little snow amid a very cold winter.

2015-2016 was a very warm winter overall, but Nashville cashed in on an 8" event in January. I remember Knoxville also had a couple of notable events as well.


Correct.  Some of the coldest winters can be driest if the storm systems are suppressed, or they simply don't develop.  In a strong northwest flow pattern, clippers are usually all we have to produce snow around here.  A mild winter with one decent snow (3-4") would be a win for me at this point.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 14, 2020, 06:19:48 PM
If storms can gain supercelluar characteristics there could be a short-lived but noticeable tornado threat in the northern Ozarks of Missouri tonight.   

These are the type of events that can overperform.  Once they cross into KY/TN the instability lowers to nothing so these won't be a concern for our area.   
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on November 15, 2020, 11:08:39 AM
Starting to see a Thanksgiving SVR setup.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 15, 2020, 12:19:13 PM
Starting to see a Thanksgiving SVR setup.

We will have to wait and see.  I have seen a model or two showing it becoming a cut-off low. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 15, 2020, 01:59:28 PM
We will have to wait and see.  I have seen a model or two showing it becoming a cut-off low.
gfs been hinting at a cut off low
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 16, 2020, 06:50:59 AM
Seems like temps undercut overnight. OHX was showing a low of 36.

Well, Smyrna airport is showing a current temperature of 29 degrees a few minutes before 7:00.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 16, 2020, 07:33:57 AM
Seems like temps undercut overnight. OHX was showing a low of 36.

Well, Smyrna airport is showing a current temperature of 29 degrees a few minutes before 7:00.
low 30 here with forecast low of 34... skies cleared out faster than forecasted ...
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 16, 2020, 07:49:49 AM
Yep got a good feeze and another coming tomorrow night.  This November has been far from a torch in my opinion.  I think some of ya'll are starting to lose it from old age.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 16, 2020, 08:03:49 AM
Yep got a good feeze and another coming tomorrow night.  This November has been far from a torch in my opinion.  I think some of ya'll are starting to lose it from old age.

well there was several days in a row with mid 70's and low 80's , for November that is quite torchy :) ...it may end up all averaging out though
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 16, 2020, 08:29:39 AM
Yep got a good feeze and another coming tomorrow night.  This November has been far from a torch in my opinion.  I think some of ya'll are starting to lose it from old age.

Weird response.

 ::scratch::

Just noting that temperatures were colder than forecast overnight, that's all.

Yes, November has been warmer than normal up to this point.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 16, 2020, 08:49:06 AM
It has definitely been an above normal November. Once the month is settled, I wouldn't call it a torch, but statewide highs in the low to mid 80s in November are likely for the record books.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 16, 2020, 09:01:19 AM
Weird response.

 ::scratch::

Just noting that temperatures were colder than forecast overnight, that's all.

Yes, November has been warmer than normal up to this point.

Wasn't directed at your response.  Just stating 3-4 days of warm last week and everyone was up in arms yelling torch and cancel winter.  Just busting people's balls on here.  Schneezy is easy to bust lol.  Ive lurked on here for years and most posters tend to inflate everything.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 16, 2020, 09:56:29 AM
Wasn't directed at your response.  Just stating 3-4 days of warm last week and everyone was up in arms yelling torch and cancel winter.  Just busting people's balls on here.  Schneezy is easy to bust lol.  Ive lurked on here for years and most posters tend to inflate everything.
your torch going start mid January to most or if not all of February. At least for the winter part of it...
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 16, 2020, 10:02:30 AM
Wasn't directed at your response.  Just stating 3-4 days of warm last week and everyone was up in arms yelling torch and cancel winter.  Just busting people's balls on here.  Schneezy is easy to bust lol.  Ive lurked on here for years and most posters tend to inflate everything.

it wasn't just 3-4 days lol, it was a solid week of 70+ temps in November :)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 16, 2020, 10:06:01 AM
December 20th to January 15th. Be our best shot score a nice winter storm ... calling it now January 3rd major winter storm for most state wide .. dominated mainly by sleet .. but after the mid of January ... mmmm do I even have to tell u. Lol
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 16, 2020, 10:30:08 AM
December 20th to January 15th. Be our best shot score a nice winter storm ... calling it now January 3rd major winter storm for most state wide .. dominated mainly by sleet .. but after the mid of January ... mmmm do I even have to tell u. Lol

Bruce if I had to put money on anyone here it would probably be you.  Seems many of your predictions come to life.  But I am glad some don't lol mainly severe
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 16, 2020, 12:47:49 PM
Models are reaching a stronger consensus on the AO going negative by early December. You can view the latest update here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif


Our chances for cold air extending to the  Tennessee Valley are greater with a -AO. 


In the meantime, is anyone else eyeing potential severe weather Thanksgiving week? The GFS hints at one or two strong fronts moving through next week. This may be of concern as we draw near.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 16, 2020, 12:58:04 PM
In the meantime, is anyone else eyeing potential severe weather Thanksgiving week? The GFS hints at one or two strong fronts moving through next week. This may be of concern as we draw near.
I'm watching next week's weather closely as it will have a big impact on our Thanksgiving plans. We have friends who aren't traveling the way they usually do because of COVID so will be hosting here, IF the weather is dry and we can have tables set apart from each other out on our patio. We can keep a fire in our chiminea and manage if the temps are a bit chilly, but if it rains we're out of luck.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 16, 2020, 01:14:43 PM
I'm watching next week's weather closely as it will have a big impact on our Thanksgiving plans. We have friends who aren't traveling the way they usually do because of COVID so will be hosting here, IF the weather is dry and we can have tables set apart from each other out on our patio. We can keep a fire in our chiminea and manage if the temps are a bit chilly, but if it rains we're out of luck.
i got my eye out around that period too  strong trough coming down on euro around turkey day . Going negative tilted
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: TNHunter on November 16, 2020, 02:04:02 PM
i got my eye out around that period too  strong trough coming down on euro around turkey day . Going negative tilted

Is it looking like a heavy rain event also?  Historically we usually get a heavy rain event around that time.  Usually just before duck season opens.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 16, 2020, 03:33:32 PM
I'm watching next week's weather closely as it will have a big impact on our Thanksgiving plans. We have friends who aren't traveling the way they usually do because of COVID so will be hosting here, IF the weather is dry and we can have tables set apart from each other out on our patio. We can keep a fire in our chiminea and manage if the temps are a bit chilly, but if it rains we're out of luck.

Too bad Thanksgiving isn't this week.  It looks sunny all the way through the weekend with mild 60's returning. It would've been perfect for a Thanksgiving Charlie Brown style.

(http://basementrejects.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/charlie-brown-thanksgiving-1973-table-dinner.jpg)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 16, 2020, 06:04:29 PM
Too bad Thanksgiving isn't this week.  It looks sunny all the way through the weekend with mild 60's returning. It would've been perfect for a Thanksgiving Charlie Brown style.

(http://basementrejects.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/charlie-brown-thanksgiving-1973-table-dinner.jpg)
That's actually what we've been calling it - our Charlie Brown Thanksgiving!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 18, 2020, 12:48:42 PM
12z euro today , day before turkey day has be watched for severe wx potential , particular ark la Tex towards western parts midsouth ... low level shear is insane. Best instability little further west
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 18, 2020, 04:53:48 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html

Elevated fire danger tomorrow in NW TN and West KY.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 18, 2020, 07:32:21 PM
12z euro today , day before turkey day has be watched for severe wx potential , particular ark la Tex towards western parts midsouth ... low level shear is insane. Best instability little further west

Severe potential looks all but nonexistent for our area next week now. The GFS has turned a notch cooler. Will be interesting to be what happens south or SW of here, as Bruce mentioned.

Average to below average temperatures after Thanksgiving are more favorable in today's forecasts than those from Monday or yesterday. GFS has snowfall for the Smokies by the end of the month. Maybe there's a change on the horizon; however I have enough sense at this point to know a few runs of a model on one particular day is a drop in the bucket.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 21, 2020, 02:17:42 PM
The Euro, GFS, and CFS are drastically different at the end of the month.

The Euro would be a severe weather event, the earlier GFS shows a heavy rain event, but the latest GFS shows a Gulf Low, and the CFS said what storm?   
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 21, 2020, 05:13:15 PM
Ok.  Indian Summer was nice.  But I'm over it at this point.  Be gone!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on November 21, 2020, 07:23:31 PM
I'm hoping that between the temperature swings and dry conditions over the last week that my slight dry cough/throat tickle/sniffles over the last few days are because of just that, and not the dreaded word I won't say here. There has definitely been a small outbreak at work over the last week even though I don't spend much time at all in the office. Let's please get some rain in here to knock some of this dust out of the air. Starting to get a little freaked out over here.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 21, 2020, 07:36:37 PM
I'm hoping that between the temperature swings and dry conditions over the last week that my slight dry cough/throat tickle/sniffles over the last few days are because of just that, and not the dreaded word I won't say here. There has definitely been a small outbreak at work over the last week even though I don't spend much time at all in the office. Let's please get some rain in here to knock some of this dust out of the air. Starting to get a little freaked out over here.
Fingers crossed for you! Seasonal allergies this year are far more stressful now than they usually are.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 21, 2020, 09:29:08 PM
I'm hoping that between the temperature swings and dry conditions over the last week that my slight dry cough/throat tickle/sniffles over the last few days are because of just that, and not the dreaded word I won't say here. There has definitely been a small outbreak at work over the last week even though I don't spend much time at all in the office. Let's please get some rain in here to knock some of this dust out of the air. Starting to get a little freaked out over here.

I hear you- at the risk of talking about
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 21, 2020, 09:38:37 PM
I'm hoping that between the temperature swings and dry conditions over the last week that my slight dry cough/throat tickle/sniffles over the last few days are because of just that, and not the dreaded word I won't say here. There has definitely been a small outbreak at work over the last week even though I don't spend much time at all in the office. Let's please get some rain in here to knock some of this dust out of the air. Starting to get a little freaked out over here.

Be well, my friend. Keep us updated.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 22, 2020, 08:17:04 AM
Fingers crossed for you! Seasonal allergies this year are far more stressful now than they usually are.

I hear you.  As a youngin' I had terrible allergies and asthma. Some of that has carried over into my later years, and whenever I feel my chest tighten a bit from allergies this fall, there is always some trepidation about the "other."
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 22, 2020, 09:17:30 PM
Looks wet this week. 3-4
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 23, 2020, 07:40:40 AM
Good frost at my home this morning. Looks like a nice Thanksgiving week scene outside.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 24, 2020, 06:51:38 AM
It
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 24, 2020, 08:23:55 AM
Good frost at my home this morning. Looks like a nice Thanksgiving week scene outside.

Quite the spread on temps. I had 41 at 6am on the hill at elevation, across town official reading was 27.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Crockett on November 24, 2020, 10:31:57 AM
Quite the spread on temps. I had 41 at 6am on the hill at elevation, across town official reading was 27.

The first thing I do every morning is check temps at my location and down in the valley in Oak Ridge. It's always easy to tell when that south wind has kicked up overnight!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 24, 2020, 10:45:30 AM
I'm ready for the hard freeze to come through. The ants in my yard are relentless this year. Those effers need to freeze to death already.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 24, 2020, 01:27:05 PM
I'm ready for the hard freeze to come through. The ants in my yard are relentless this year. Those effers need to freeze to death already.
I once heard on a discovery channel show that all the ants in the world weigh about the same as all the people in the world. That's a horrifying thought. Not sure if it's true anymore though.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 25, 2020, 08:58:33 AM
There is a small window today for severe weather.  I would probably expect to see at least Southern Middle TN down into Alabama get upgraded to a Slight Risk of severe weather as the HRRR is showing some cells that have just enough instability to go severe if it verifies across Central Alabama up into Southern Middle and Southeastern TN.   

It is far from a big-time outbreak, but it wouldn't be out of the question to see a storm or two trigger a tornado warning this afternoon in Southern Middle to perhaps Southeastern TN. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: snowdog on November 25, 2020, 09:53:49 AM
For those of you in the southern half of TN...

https://twitter.com/NashSevereWx/status/1331625820138385409 (https://twitter.com/NashSevereWx/status/1331625820138385409)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 25, 2020, 02:24:11 PM
Doesn
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: StormNine on November 25, 2020, 06:28:40 PM
Doesn
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 26, 2020, 10:40:21 AM
Beautiful morning here for Thanksgiving.  Already 60 before noon.  Yeah, not exactly right for the season, but going to make the best of it. 

Hope everyone has a safe and blessed Thanksgiving day.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2020, 01:38:43 PM
Interesting forecast for my area tomorrow.  One of the few times you'll see widespread dense fog in the afternoon.  The temperature falling to the dewpoint and staying there for most of the day would be one way to do it.

Quote
Monday: Patchy fog in the morning, then widespread dense fog early in the afternoon. Rain showers in the morning. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. Snow showers likely late. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times early in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Temperatures falling into the mid 30s in the afternoon. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2020, 02:09:31 PM
OHX issued a WWA for the upper Plateau.
Title: Re: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2020, 03:41:53 PM
The NWS website makes the forecast confusing for even those of us who are armchair meteorologists. Currently this is my "zone" forecast for far northeastern Sevier County for Monday night.

Quote
Monday Night: Cloudy, colder. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Snow showers likely until early morning, then a chance of snow showers late. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation up to 3 inches. Lows in the lower to mid 20s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Snow accumulation up to three inches.  Seems a bit much.  Yet the "point and click" forecast says 1 inch or less.  Two different forecasts for the same area.  I've seen this for several years now, and for the average person who doesn't know better, it creates a lot of confusion, since most people don't bother with weather radios any longer.  Are all these forecasts computer generated now?   
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2020, 08:25:50 PM
So the NAM and HRRR both have this weird heavy band of snow that moves through Nashville and points south and east in the middle of the night. Check it out on the latest runs. Weird!

Hopefully Middle TN can cash in on some minor November accumulations. I'm a little more confident now. OHX is just sitting this one out for everyone but the Plateau though.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clay on November 29, 2020, 08:33:57 PM
So the NAM and HRRR both have this weird heavy band of snow that moves through Nashville and points south and east in the middle of the night. Check it out on the latest runs. Weird!

Hopefully Middle TN can cash in on some minor November accumulations. I'm a little more confident now. OHX is just sitting this one out for everyone but the Plateau though.
I will not stay up till 2 am. I will not stay up till 2am. I will not *pours a cup of coffee* stay up till 2 am.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2020, 08:35:16 PM
I will not stay up till 2 am. I will not stay up till 2am. I will not *pours a cup of coffee* stay up till 2 am.

I am such a freaking dork that I might set an alarm for 2-3am to see if this verifies. ::rofl::

I only live once, after all.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on November 29, 2020, 08:38:12 PM
Can anyone else not access the December thread from Tapatalk?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Eric on November 29, 2020, 08:54:29 PM
So the NAM and HRRR both have this weird heavy band of snow that moves through Nashville and points south and east in the middle of the night. Check it out on the latest runs. Weird!

Hopefully Middle TN can cash in on some minor November accumulations. I'm a little more confident now. OHX is just sitting this one out for everyone but the Plateau though.

Atmospheric profiles are marginal.  A degree one way or the other will determine drizzle vs. flizzard.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clay on November 29, 2020, 09:09:24 PM
50DBZ returns in Houston County must be sleet falling.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Eric on November 29, 2020, 09:24:48 PM
50DBZ returns in Houston County must be sleet falling.

Might be liquid at the ground.  That radar beam is kinda high up there.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 29, 2020, 09:48:02 PM
I will not stay up till 2 am. I will not stay up till 2am. I will not *pours a cup of coffee* stay up till 2 am.

Waffle house Brentwood?
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2020, 09:48:50 PM
So the NAM and HRRR both have this weird heavy band of snow that moves through Nashville and points south and east in the middle of the night. Check it out on the latest runs. Weird!

Hopefully Middle TN can cash in on some minor November accumulations. I'm a little more confident now. OHX is just sitting this one out for everyone but the Plateau though.
Latest run also has snow falling over most of middle TN, while raining just to the north in KY.  Interesting night ahead.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 29, 2020, 09:54:19 PM
Really hard rain falling here in western Montgomery County. I went out on the deck and turned the light on, every once in a while a a big drop of rain has a tiny ice piece in it. It quickly melts and probably won't last long. It is raining big drops of rain for sure, I bet it's snowing a thousand feet up right now. My temp says 39 here in woodlawn. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 29, 2020, 09:58:40 PM
NAM and HRRR are sniffing out some localized areas that could see accumulating snowfall if ground temps will support it. From my previous experience I can see higher terrain in Davidson and Williamson County picking up some accumulation on grassy areas and on surfaces other than the road. 02Z data suggests that that line is around 800ft. So there are going to be some areas in Brentwood that see large flakes flying. Further north onto the rim could see some white ground as well. Pretty much now casting localized events.... This is the fun in these storms IMO, it always was. More information and cross talk happen during storms than the BS that lead up to them , no offence.... Lets get back to the golden days of endless rants but with substance , and the ish.....


Here is a 02z image of snowfall output via 10:1  .... I am old and really dont care to remember the rules. Lmk if I need to remove , are we still PC?




[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Eric on November 29, 2020, 10:02:14 PM
Lmk if I need to remove , are we still PC?

You good.  Carry on.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 29, 2020, 10:15:00 PM
We need to get chat fired up! I feel a OG sneaky surprise for some in the morning . Most likely up on the Highland rim but could see some some snowfall rates strong enough for snow to try to accumulate in Nashville. Surface temps are going to be too warm after late morning IMO but freezing should extend down past 925mb so it will be pretty none the less.
Title: Re: Re: November 2020
Post by: Michael on November 29, 2020, 10:15:18 PM
For some of you Plateau folks and some just west of the Plateau. 00z NAM 3k just gave you guys a little more accumulation. Wouldn
Title: Re: Re: November 2020
Post by: Michael on November 29, 2020, 10:22:56 PM
WWA for Plateau

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TNZ032&warncounty=TNC141&firewxzone=TNZ032&local_place1=Cookeville%20TN&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=36.1569&lon=-85.5054#.X8Ryw-Q8KaM

Edit: Just saw this was posted earlier. Sorry for double post
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Beth on November 29, 2020, 10:30:17 PM
Getting some sleet mixing with rain here.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 29, 2020, 10:30:23 PM
1' People, check out high on leconte for obs......



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1032 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020


TNZ041-043-045-047-072-074-087-301200-
/O.CON.KMRX.WS.A.0001.201130T1200Z-201201T1700Z/
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter-
Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-
Including the cities of Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi,
Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico,
and Coker Creek
1032 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches in the higher elevations above 3000 feet, with localized
  spots of up to 12 inches. Lower elevations in the valley and
  downslope areas may only see 1 to 3 inches total.

* WHERE...The East Tennessee mountains.

* WHEN...From 7 AM EST Monday through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to accumulating
  and blowing snow. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Monday morning commute, but especially by Monday afternoon and
  evening and lasting through late Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 29, 2020, 10:30:54 PM
Getting some sleet mixing with rain here.

Can pick it up on radar. Good to have confirmation from the ground.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clay on November 29, 2020, 10:38:44 PM
Might be liquid at the ground.  That radar beam is kinda high up there.
Carbon copy out of CKV though too. Not improbable.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 29, 2020, 10:42:56 PM
Carbon copy out of CKV though too. Not improbable.
Looks like just all rain right now, but there was some tiny ice in the big drops earlier, not all of them just now and then. It is a cold rain that is for sure. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 29, 2020, 10:53:48 PM
Looks like just all rain right now, but there was some tiny ice in the big drops earlier, not all of them just now and then. It is a cold rain that is for sure. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
9/10 times...... We are waiting for that one In A Million  :P
Title: Re: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 30, 2020, 12:56:31 AM
Flakes starting to Fly in Bellevue. Rain is changing over to a Mix. Looks like heavier return brought some larger flakes down.

34.5F
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 30, 2020, 01:08:08 AM
SN mixing with the rain in Bellevue now. Temp has dropped 4F in the last hour. Down to 34F now with the help of these heavier returns that have been overhead. Temperatures may rebound here before starting the fall down throughout the day after this main area of precip passes through and we wait for NW flow to take heed. Coldest temps in the areas are pretty much overhead right at this moment. Pretty cool to see short range pick this up.  Good storm to start to the season. Tomorrow afternoon and evening the Plateau and Mountains turn white.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 30, 2020, 01:26:48 AM
Rain Changing over now to SN in Bellevue. Nice size flakes falling.

Temps are going to rebound now as heavier returns moves East. Almost had 33F at the surface , pretty cool.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on November 30, 2020, 01:54:20 AM
Big flakes flying in Lebanon off of 109. Definitely did not expect this.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on November 30, 2020, 06:22:42 AM
Today is the last day of November!

The OCD part of me was annoyed by posts talking about weather last night and today (still November) in the December thread. So, I split them off and merged them over here. If you
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 06:55:20 AM
Today is the last day of November!

The OCD part of me was annoyed by posts talking about weather last night and today (still November) in the December thread. So, I split them off and merged them over here. If you
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 07:10:04 AM
Eastern TN valley is looking too warm to see much snow on the last run of the HRRR (11z).  Very little changeover until the last of the moisture starts to pull out.  RAP seems to agree. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Beth on November 30, 2020, 07:12:41 AM
Looks like a decent band of snow moving down from St. Louis.  Might get a little bit from it.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 07:20:30 AM
Something interesting to note is the definite plume of snow coming off of Lake Michigan directed into KY and TN today (per HRRR).  Ever who gets under it could find a little increase in snow intensity.  Early in the period, it appears to be over upper middle TN, but shifts quickly over the northern plateau before heading into the eastern valley.   
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 30, 2020, 07:27:20 AM
Looks like a decent band of snow moving down from St. Louis.  Might get a little bit from it.
dry air taking place here now will just erode that away, as slp moves off to the northeast
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 07:54:04 AM
A true wintry mix is falling in Cool Springs. It's mostly sleet, with some rain and a couple of flakes mixed in.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 08:00:23 AM
dry air taking place here now will just erode that away, as slp moves off to the northeast

Well, the St. Louis radar is showing virga anyway, so I'd count on nothing from that.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 30, 2020, 08:20:59 AM
dry air taking place here now will just erode that away, as slp moves off to the northeast

The short range models are suggesting that when the upper trough back over Missouri swings through later this afternoon it will combine with some of the moisture fetch off of the lakes to produce the scattered snow showers. It works out that way fairly often. I don't know if its the moisture from the lakes combined with local topography, or what.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: EastTNWX on November 30, 2020, 08:50:26 AM
Temp is 39 in Farragut with 37dp.  Hopefully the cooler initialization will work in the valley
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 09:14:15 AM
Down to 39 in the foothills, as well.  Seems to be colder than the forecast that states down to 37 by 5pm.  Will we recover some this afternoon, then cool again later?  Not sure, but one thing of note is our forecast high was 61 yesterday, and I was stuck in the lower 50's all day.  If we can remain in the upper 30's, and get some sleet or snow falling at cloud level, the column above will cool and snow could fall sooner.  All speculation at this point, but it's what we do. 
 ::coffee::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 30, 2020, 09:22:50 AM
I am at 35 degrees , it's the moisture that is the issue to me or lack thereof?
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 30, 2020, 09:44:03 AM
I am at 35 degrees , it's the moisture that is the issue to me or lack thereof?
if the temps was sitting around 40 or so... moisture would not be a problem  >:D.  its just how we roll now. lol
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 30, 2020, 10:20:58 AM
if the temps was sitting around 40 or so... moisture would not be a problem  >:D.  its just how we roll now. lol

I know bruce lol....seems like when we have gulf potential, we rise to low 40's do to southerly flow and then 30's as it passes and squeeze a few flakes out on backside, been a while since we had a complete all snow event with cold air in place from the start
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 30, 2020, 10:22:57 AM
some of that moisture in southern Illinois is moving almost due south instead of east southeast so some of it could actually get here in mid state
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 30, 2020, 10:36:48 AM
Graupel/Light Snow starting to pick up in Bellevue/Nashville. With heavier returns streaming down from the North I believe areas are going to get a coating of snow esp in the higher elevations of Davidson and Williamson. Right now RH @ H7 are positioned just along the I-24 line. As time progresses this will move East but lower level moisture is still going to be transported in for some time from the North. 850's continue to drop and will likely squeeze out whatever we have left later as pockets of acceptable VV exists.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 10:41:15 AM
Graupel/Light Snow starting to pick up in Bellevue/Nashville.

Ditto Cool Springs
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 10:44:44 AM
Beginning to think the "precipitation type" mode of the HRRR isn't handling this system well.  Latest run shows much more rain in Kentucky for a big part of the day where it's already cold enough for snow, and in some areas, is already occurring.  Further, it shows snow falling in TN at the same time showing rain in areas much further north in KY.  Seems a little off. 

Precipitation rates will probably play a part in this as well.  As rates increase, and more snow falls from the clouds, it cools the column and more snow reaches the ground.  When rates decrease, light rain or drizzle occurs.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out as upper level divergence increases, and more cooling occurs aloft.

Quote
Increased divergence associated with a 120 knot upper
level jet lifting across the northern Gulf coast will promote an
increase in coverage of snow showers late this morning and into
tonight. Ascent will become maximized late this afternoon and into
the overnight hours
when cross sections depict increasing omega
in the DGZ.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 10:48:29 AM
Pretty nice band of snow here in Cool Springs.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 30, 2020, 10:51:29 AM
Pretty nice band of snow here in Cool Springs.
With heavier returns streaming down from the North I believe areas are going to get a coating of snow esp in the higher elevations of Davidson and Williamson. Right now RH @ H7 are positioned just along the I-24 line. As time progresses this will move East but lower level moisture is still going to be transported in for some time from the North. 850's continue to drop and will likely squeeze out whatever we have left later as pockets of acceptable VV exists. Turning into more SN here now, starting to coat raised surfaces
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 30, 2020, 10:57:35 AM
gosh it looks like west of 65 totally gets shafted from seeing snow in the air :(
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 11:01:21 AM
Precipitation expanding north of Nashville in KY, and dropping toward the mid-state. I'd say since it's already mixed or snowing, you'll stay that way as this drops in.  Enjoy!


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 30, 2020, 11:08:54 AM
gosh it looks like west of 65 totally gets shafted from seeing snow in the air :(

Not really shafted when you were never going to get much before. I am West of 65 its snowing here. You are a little far south and West. Returns could drift into that area and you seee some flakes....
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 30, 2020, 11:20:43 AM
Not really shafted when you were never going to get much before. I am West of 65 its snowing here. You are a little far south and West. Returns could drift into that area and you seee some flakes....

I knew I wasn't going to get much but would like to see a snow shower in the air for a few minutes lol
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 11:21:03 AM
Improving trend (and hopefully continues) for some eastern areas on the HRRR. Most of the morning's run showed little changeover in the lower elevations until most of the moisture had left.  Before the 15z run, Knoxville had a big goose egg. The 15z run showed a half-inch.  The 16z has it up to .9.  An earlier changeover to snow from previous runs was the cause.  Keep it comin'.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 11:23:13 AM
Improving trend (and hopefully continues) for some eastern areas on the HRRR. Most of the morning's run showed little changeover in the lower elevations until most of the moisture had left.  Before the 15z run, Knoxville had a big goose egg. The 15z run showed a half-inch.  The 16z has it up to .9.  An earlier changeover to snow from previous runs was the cause.  Keep it comin'.

Heck yeah, let's bring it to my former residence.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: snowdog on November 30, 2020, 11:32:55 AM
Quite a nice surprise out this morning. Started as graupel earlier this morning, now getting legitimate snow showers.

Starting to get a little coating on elevated and grassy surfaces.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 30, 2020, 11:36:46 AM
It's been snowing here all morning mainly light flurries but it has picked up a little bit in the last hour. We might see a dusting here this afternoon if we are real lucky. But there are for sure flakes falling west of I-65. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JHart on November 30, 2020, 11:46:11 AM
We are getting some decent snow showers out here in Lascassas at the moment.  There has been some brief whitening in the roof valleys during the heavier bursts.  Perhaps not much historically speaking, but this little event is quite a bit more than the fat nothing I was expecting.   ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Michael on November 30, 2020, 11:47:23 AM
Improving trend (and hopefully continues) for some eastern areas on the HRRR. Most of the morning's run showed little changeover in the lower elevations until most of the moisture had left.  Before the 15z run, Knoxville had a big goose egg. The 15z run showed a half-inch.  The 16z has it up to .9.  An earlier changeover to snow from previous runs was the cause.  Keep it comin'.

13z to 16z, Morristown went from 0.2 to 0.9  ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Beth on November 30, 2020, 11:52:50 AM
Getting small flakes here in Dickson but getting a bit bigger. And of course I have to drive to Franklin this afternoon.  But got a 4 wheel drive truck and should be fine in the blizzard.  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 30, 2020, 12:20:07 PM
NE Tennessee looking good for sure
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on November 30, 2020, 12:22:43 PM
We'd be looking pretty white here in Nashville if we were three degrees cooler. It's been coming down pretty nicely for a while now.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 12:25:18 PM
13z to 16z, Morristown went from 0.2 to 0.9  ::snowman::

Good to see an improvement from what short-term models were showing early this morning--basically rain.  I'm down to 37.8, so we don't have far to go to start seeing some mixing.  Hopefully soon. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 30, 2020, 12:25:38 PM
We'd be looking pretty white here in Nashville if we were three degrees cooler. It's been coming down pretty nicely for a while now.

Yes, as I stated last night, temps would be a couple degrees off for good accumulations. Even elevated surfaces had a hard time here when snowfall rates were decent. Highest of elevation here had a  brief coating. We have been in a lull for a little bit but now heavier returns are moving in from the NW.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 30, 2020, 12:28:18 PM
Good to see an improvement from what short-term models were showing early this morning--basically rain.  I'm down to 37.8, so we don't have far to go to start seeing some mixing.  Hopefully soon.

Thinking of heading out your way tomorrow morning.  They closed US441 last night @ 7PM so not getting into the upper elevations of the park by car. My AT setup is in Tahoe otherwise I would start skinning up. May bootpack it and try for some rare skiing in the park. I know Clingmans Dome rd will have the Great Smokey Mountain Ski Patrol monitoring and helping nordic skiiers on the road but are they ready for a madman like me :)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 30, 2020, 01:28:54 PM
Coming down the best it has all day right now. The patio tables out back are getting white as is my patio rail tops. It's coming down good anyway, pretty looking. It's also starting to stick on grassy areas. especially up close to trees and around the house. It is 34 here. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 30, 2020, 01:33:34 PM
We've still got rain and 39 in Knoxville but the changeover line on radar keeps getting closer. Snow or not it's cold and wet and I've lit the first fire of the season in my stove. If we can get some good flurries before dark it will really feel like the start of the Christmas season.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 30, 2020, 01:35:04 PM
Snow starting to actually stick here now too. Temperatures are dropping, snow has picked up. Profiles are supporting larger flake development and surface temps are droppoing. A dusting 1/4" of snow is def possible if rates pick up and drive the temp down to 31-32F on exposed surfaces .

Last burst of snow drove temp down to 33.3F here. Back to 33.5F withanother solid return about to be overhead. Small deviations in elevation are cool to watch play out here.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 30, 2020, 01:50:58 PM
Getting a little graupel mixed in with the rain here. MRX has a policy of never issuing a WWA for Hamilton county if the event doesn't effect the valley floor. I don't personally believe this policy makes sense. At least 20,000 people live over 2000' in the county. Many entire counties in MRX's CWA don't have that many people. They are almost certainly experiencing accumulating snow at this point.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: bluegrasspr on November 30, 2020, 01:51:30 PM
Seeing a few flurries mixing in here in Lenoir City (Loudon Co., SW of Knoxville).
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 30, 2020, 01:58:12 PM
It feels like it's been so long since we had the whole board tracking and talking a fun event during the day. Even without real accumulations this is a fun Monday we all really needed  ::yum::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 30, 2020, 02:07:03 PM
decent snow falling in lewis county....puts you in the Christmas mood even though its not much :)
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 30, 2020, 02:10:04 PM
decent snow falling in lewis county....puts you in the Christmas mood even though its not much :)

Glad you are not missing out. Been snowing pretty good in Lewisburg as well. I'm going to check out the high ridges south of town shortly.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 30, 2020, 02:11:02 PM
decent snow falling in lewis county....puts you in the Christmas mood even though its not much :)


Very Happy for you gcbama. I knew you would get some flakes out that way. This is better than I thought it would be TBH. Good moisture stream from 850mb from the NNE and cold enough temps with solid lower VV's.

** ALL snow here in Bellevue now . I am starting to get a dusting now and we are still looking good for the next several hours. Temperature has now hit 32.6F IMBY.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 30, 2020, 02:15:31 PM
Temps are definitely heading downhill in Knoxville now, down from 39 to 37 in pretty short order. I've got my fingers crossed for colder air and some snow before the moisture moves out.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 30, 2020, 02:26:09 PM

Very Happy for you gcbama. I knew you would get some flakes out that way. This is better than I thought it would be TBH. Good moisture stream from 850mb from the NNE and cold enough temps with solid lower VV's.



LOL you all know how much I love the winter weather :) on a side note that wind has some bite to it!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 30, 2020, 02:26:36 PM
Reporting SN here in Bellevue, moderate at times. 32.4F
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 02:26:42 PM
Temps are definitely heading downhill in Knoxville now, down from 39 to 37 in pretty short order. I've got my fingers crossed for colder air and some snow before the moisture moves out.

Dewpoint has dropped as well to 34.  It's been 36-38 all day up to the last hour.  I think the colder air is making it's push into the valley. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 30, 2020, 02:29:19 PM
Actually getting some flakes here now.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 02:30:38 PM
Quote
30 Nov 3:19 pm   36   34   93   27   W   14G26        9.00   Lt Snow   SCT015,SCT027,OVC044   28.75      29.79   T   

Light snow being reported at TYS at 3:19.  Temp dropped to 36!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 30, 2020, 02:31:39 PM
Here in woodlawn the ground is getting white in spots, the patio deck and tables are covered with a lite coating as well as bushes and some trees. It's starting to look pretty even though it won't be much accum. It's 32-33 degrees across the county. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 30, 2020, 02:37:20 PM
Light snow being reported at TYS at 3:19.  Temp dropped to 36!
The snow just started in West Knoxville - I've been waiting all day! I hope we get a rare board-wide event where we all at least get to see some fall.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 02:45:09 PM
Snow just starting to mix in here.  Can't really see it in the air yet, but the outline of slushy flakes are hitting the car windshield in my driveway.  Temperature has also dropped to 36.  Let the change happen before dark so we can enjoy the flakage.   ::guitar::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 02:50:08 PM
Really glad to hear snow is falling in Chatt. The snow showers are much more widespread across the forum area than what was modeled.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Curt on November 30, 2020, 03:10:27 PM
There have been snow showers and flurries this far west but the clearing line is now approaching. If winds can die off under clear skies, upper teens aren't out of the question outside the Memphis UHI- at least where clear skies prevail.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JHart on November 30, 2020, 03:13:35 PM
We have had steady snow all afternoon here in Lascassas.    Tree branches are turning white along the creek bed bordering our property--- a lovely winter day overall.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 03:14:10 PM
Transition to all snow is complete here as the temperature hit 35.  I've also noticed radar returns are increasing over east TN, with even some banding showing up over parts of Knox/Jefferson Counties. 

EDIT: HRRR now shows a solid 1.0-1.5" over the central valley.  I guess it could happen on grassy areas since nightfall is approaching, and temps will fall to near freezing shortly after. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Drifter on November 30, 2020, 03:24:44 PM
Here in southeastern Indiana we haven
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 03:29:16 PM
There have been snow showers and flurries this far west but the clearing line is now approaching. If winds can die off under clear skies, upper teens aren't out of the question outside the Memphis UHI- at least where clear skies prevail.

Wow! That definitely wasn't modeled. Thanks for sharing.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: joemomma on November 30, 2020, 03:45:43 PM
Snowing pretty good in Cookeville now, temp looks to be right on 32 in town.  It was 33 at lunch, and 31/32 outside of town.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clay on November 30, 2020, 03:48:56 PM
Snow beginning to stick on non paved surfaces in Antioch. Losing that all important solar heating.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2020, 04:21:52 PM
Temp down to 33 with slush accumulating on the deck and car top.  Occasionally comes down hard enough to reduce visibility.  But darkness approaches, so the daylight show is ending. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Beth on November 30, 2020, 04:30:27 PM
Got back from Franklin and good dusting here. Still coming down!
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 30, 2020, 04:33:54 PM
Down to 34 and sticking to the grass in Knoxville. Sadly we're losing daylight so the show is about over, but I'll still get to see it falling through the streetlights.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Michael on November 30, 2020, 04:39:27 PM
Just starting to mix in here in the northern East Tn Valley. Patchy areas of more snow than rain around Morristown to Rogersville. 34 and dropping.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Beth on November 30, 2020, 04:44:21 PM
Down to 34 and sticking to the grass in Knoxville. Sadly we're losing daylight so the show is about over, but I'll still get to see it falling through the streetlights.

I hate when you can
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: gcbama on November 30, 2020, 04:53:34 PM
I hate when you can
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 05:19:09 PM
Good  coating at my home in Fairview
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 05:21:10 PM
dry air taking place here now will just erode that away, as slp moves off to the northeast

Eat your crow, Debbie Downer.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 30, 2020, 05:24:38 PM
We've got a good dusting on grass and elevated surfaces now in Knoxville. Safe to say that this one overperformed.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 30, 2020, 05:41:59 PM
Good band just rolled thru. Laid down a solid 1/4". Still snowing lightly, temp down to 31 on the hill.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on November 30, 2020, 05:51:57 PM
We need a poster from Grundy or Van Buren county. I bet it's ripping good up there. They were below freezing hours ago up on top.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: WXHD on November 30, 2020, 06:00:48 PM
Beautiful afternoon in my neck of the woods. Are we ready for spring now?
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cbrentv318 on November 30, 2020, 06:09:33 PM
We need a poster from Grundy or Van Buren county. I bet it's ripping good up there. They were below freezing hours ago up on top.
Called someone from in Grundy county.    Ground is white and still snowing. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 30, 2020, 06:20:18 PM
Stopped snowing here in woodlawn a little over a hour ago, but looks like another band of flurries and or snow showers will swing through here in another hour or so before ending. Most of the ground is white here, all rooftops and elevated surfaces. Another round may completely cover the ground. Close to a quarter inch on my patio table. The woods looked pretty right before dark and snow is in many trees as well as the ground. It was a pretty afternoon as is snowed several hours sometimes moderately. Hope folks on the plateau and mountains get a overperformer, it seems like it might be. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 30, 2020, 06:26:45 PM
Eat your crow, Debbie Downer.
i take it medium rare lol
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 06:40:43 PM
i take it medium rare lol

Good man.

To be honest, I was thinking the exact same thing this morning. I love how this overperformed. Snow showers as far west as Memphis and accumulation matching or exceeding what the models were showing.

Smokies are getting hammered right now. Must be fun to be in Gatlinburg.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 06:44:09 PM
@Clarksville Snowman, let us know if those returns to the NNW of you verify in an hour or two. They might succumb to dry air, but it would be nice to get another kick out of this event.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on November 30, 2020, 06:55:18 PM
Good man.

To be honest, I was thinking the exact same thing this morning. I love how this overperformed. Snow showers as far west as Memphis and accumulation matching or exceeding what the models were showing.

Smokies are getting hammered right now. Must be fun to be in Gatlinburg.
no doubt, love to be walking down the strip right now. xmas lights every where, sipping on some of popcorns shine...
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 30, 2020, 07:33:39 PM
Full on heavy snow reported out of the mountains right now. Looking forward to the morning remote from Leconte. More snow for the mountains late in the week again it looks like. Nothing like this but it could reach advisory level.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: vanster67 on November 30, 2020, 07:36:29 PM
woke up to snow this am bout 6 oclock or so,  snowed all day.  still light snow here now in monterey.  3 inches in vehicle roof and bed of truck...  early Christmas present
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on November 30, 2020, 07:40:41 PM
SWS in effect for Knoxville now:

Quote
. Affected Area
Knox County
Description
...Wintry Conditions Overnight...

Areas of snow have moved across the region this evening producing between 1/2 and 1 inch over much of the area with localized heavier amounts. The snowfall is mainly over grassy and elevated surfaces. The snowfall intensity and coverage will diminish by 10 pm ET with only light snow showers or flurries anticipated in the valley by midnight.

As temperatures drop into the 20s tonight, freezing of the wet roadways is possible producing spotty black ice on bridges and overpasses. However, most roadways will remain wet due to relatively warm ground.

When traveling through early Tuesday morning, drive with caution and slow down. Give yourself extra time to reach your destination.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on November 30, 2020, 08:07:27 PM
Really nothing more than flurries here as expected. The radar tells the story. The plateau ate this alive with downsloping. We actually had breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon it was so strong.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 08:16:06 PM
Really nothing more than flurries here as expected. The radar tells the story. The plateau ate this alive with downsloping. We actually had breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon it was so strong.

This is one of those systems when Chattanooga gets shut out while the Plateau gets a pretty nice hit.

I would say "that sucks," but y'all got 4" last year, which is more than I've seen in almost 5 years now.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on December 01, 2020, 06:50:27 AM
Woke up to a few last flurries joining the snow already on the ground this morning. Now I have a craving for egg nog....  ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: joemomma on December 01, 2020, 07:11:44 AM
Had a solid 2" at the house just north of Cookeville.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2020, 07:20:49 AM
About 1.5" here, especially on car and deck where it started accumulating first.  MRX noted in an overnight discussion that it over performed in central valley.  Still have some flurries falling this morning.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Coach B on December 01, 2020, 07:27:58 AM
Officially measured .3" on the snow board. I thought overall the short range models did well for my location. Usually the low end snow totals on these models gets ignored away from the Plateau in marginal situations. But they nailed it this time.

Did anyone else think they saw some lake enhanced snow downstream of Kentucky and Barkley lakes? Sure looked like it to me yesterday, but it could have just been the way the bands/streamers set up.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on December 01, 2020, 08:14:18 AM
Had a very light dusting on the deck this morning. From talking to my employees, it sounds like east of hwy 411 was the cutoff for actual accumulation vs. just a dusting.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Bruce on December 01, 2020, 08:20:57 AM
only got a few good snow flurries here yesterday, put me in the christmas spirt little more while i was hanging outside christmas lights up.  times sure has changed, no one ever get excited over a dusting of snow up to even a inch or so even. glad for the ones that got to see that. just stating our snowfall expectations sure has taken a big hit over the years. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Michael on December 01, 2020, 09:06:38 AM
Still pouring snow here in the Northern East Tn Valley at 10am EST. Been like this off and on all night. But, only have around 0.5 inch on ground due to some melting. May have eeked out close to 1 inch total. Overall nice surprise.


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Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on December 01, 2020, 10:40:13 AM
only got a few good snow flurries here yesterday, put me in the christmas spirt little more while i was hanging outside christmas lights up.  times sure has changed, no one ever get excited over a dusting of snow up to even a inch or so even. glad for the ones that got to see that. just stating our snowfall expectations sure has taken a big hit over the years. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Any snow in this far south in November is exciting IMO
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2020, 10:54:13 AM
Snow showers and flurries have just now ended as noon approaches.  I'm seeing patches of blue sky appear as well.  The sun will make quick work of the snow cover if it appears, except in shady areas.

It was a nice little winter event for late November.  Any winter weather these days is a win. 
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Crockett on December 01, 2020, 05:55:42 PM
We ended up with about 3.5" here. I'll be honest: I never expected to see the kids out building snowmen and sledding on December 1.
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 01, 2020, 10:31:19 PM
@Clarksville Snowman, let us know if those returns to the NNW of you verify in an hour or two. They might succumb to dry air, but it would be nice to get another kick out of this event.
Sorry I did not get back to you last night I got busy with something. Yes, you are right dry air kinda took the punch out of that round. We did get a few light flurries but nothing like the afternoon round. I am glad most in east tn and the mountains did well. Hopefully we can score bigger with another system before Christmas! It was glad to see some snowfall, we got more yesterday than the last 2 years combined here if that helps tell you we are very due for a good one! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on December 02, 2020, 08:40:35 AM
We ended up with about 3.5" here. I'll be honest: I never expected to see the kids out building snowmen and sledding on December 1.

Wow- nice event there.