Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Tropical Spin Zone => Topic started by: cgauxknox on October 04, 2020, 04:42:47 PM

Title: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 04, 2020, 04:42:47 PM
NHC has issued a projected path for current Potential Tropical Cyclone 26, which will likely be Hurricane Delta and it will probably be active in the Gulf while current TS Gamma is still active. Gamma doesn't look to do much other than possibly hit the Yucatan with rain bands, but Delta is forecast to go into Louisiana as a hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday. A second instance of two active systems in the Gulf at the same time in the same season seems truly insane.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: StormNine on October 04, 2020, 05:31:49 PM
It would also be the first greek named storm to make landfall as a hurricane.  It could drop some very heavy rain across the same areas impacted by Sally.  Beta was the first US landfalling storm.   
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: Vols1 on October 04, 2020, 07:59:41 PM
If the models are true we could get some decent rain from it on Monday the 12th
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: StormNine on October 04, 2020, 08:25:01 PM
Some models want to drift Gamma north and potentially interact in some way with future Delta.   

We have a whole fraternity/sorority in the Gulf of Mexico.   
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: cgauxknox on October 04, 2020, 09:00:52 PM
The latest NHC update now has 26 with a 100% chance of development in 48 hours so Delta may be a named storm sometime tomorrow. While we enjoy beautiful fall weather here we'll have plenty to watch in the Gulf. As others have correctly mentioned this storm may be rolling over areas already badly hurt this season so even a lower intensity storm could cause major problems.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: cgauxknox on October 05, 2020, 05:47:29 AM
If the models are true we could get some decent rain from it on Monday the 12th
The NHC track this morning is showing a slight right-hand turn after landfall, not the boomerang swing we've seen in other systems this year, that brings it almost straight into Tennessee. If the track holds this may turn into one to watch for local weather impacts.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: WXHD on October 05, 2020, 08:27:08 AM
Were on Dauphin Island this week. Guess Ill have a front row seat.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: Thundersnow on October 05, 2020, 08:32:22 AM
Were on Dauphin Island this week. Guess Ill have a front row seat.

Glad that worked out for you after the last storm down there.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: WXHD on October 05, 2020, 09:00:38 AM
Glad that worked out for you after the last storm down there.

We have 100yds of beach to ourselves in each direction. Need passes to get through the check point to get our rental. The island is a ghost town. Were going all the way down to the west end today and may have the whole place to ourselves. There isnt any damage that Ive seen that I would consider significant/ devastating. Everything appears to be cosmetic. There is roofing and siding everywhere. Every house is on stilts and plenty are missing their stairs. Beautiful fall weather so far.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: cgauxknox on October 05, 2020, 09:20:36 AM
WXHD's spot at the moment sounds more than a little bit like paradise. Enjoy!
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: cgauxknox on October 05, 2020, 09:21:43 AM
Just saw NHC's latest update; we've officially got TS Delta.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: Thundersnow on October 05, 2020, 10:43:57 AM
Gamma Delta... sounds like the name of a girls sorority...

Heading to the beach for Fall Break, I guess?  :o  :P  ::doh::
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: WXHD on October 05, 2020, 03:21:44 PM
Gamma Delta... sounds like the name of a girls sorority...

Heading to the beach for Fall Break, I guess?  :o  :P  ::doh::

Yep. Weve taken and continue to take all precautions while traveling. Quarantine and virtual learning have starved our souls of fresh air and open views. Back to the grind soon enough, Ill be sure to get a weather report in first though!
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: StormNine on October 05, 2020, 04:07:15 PM
[attachimg=1]

Here are some Delta Gamma's.  May or may not be related to the current situation in the Gulf of Mexico. 
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: Eric on October 05, 2020, 04:11:42 PM
(Attachment Link)

Here are some Delta Gamma's.  May or may not be related to the current situation in the Gulf of Mexico.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/cO7pgxOH2HnOuaR084/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: cgauxknox on October 05, 2020, 04:41:44 PM
...and now back to our regularly scheduled program  ;D

NHC is now showing Delta reaching major hurricane status Wednesday then dropping back to just hurricane status on Thursday.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: schneitzeit on October 05, 2020, 06:10:24 PM
(Attachment Link)

Here are some Delta Gamma's.  May or may not be related to the current situation in the Gulf of Mexico.

Schneitzeit pulled a plenty of those in his ugrad days  8)
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: StormNine on October 05, 2020, 08:10:27 PM
Delta is looking to become a Major and with a westward trend will impact Cancun before popping off into the Gulf of Mexico.  Serious situation unfolding.   
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: cgauxknox on October 05, 2020, 09:12:13 PM
Discussions tonight are saying Delta may be the worst hurricane to hit Cancun in 15 years. It still looks like cooler water and some unfavorable winds take it out of major hurricane status before a U.S. landfall, but I wouldn't take anything for granted if I was on the Gulf coast.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: Vols1 on October 05, 2020, 09:13:50 PM
I think it slows down and goes into western Louisiana. Will be interesting to see what the other system does to it.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: cgauxknox on October 06, 2020, 06:02:27 AM
The updated track from overnight looks like Delta has slowed down but will spend more time as a major hurricane. While it still drops to regular hurricane status by landfall the longer it moves along as a major hurricane the more water it can push, which may raise the storm surge threat for the coast. Actual landfall looks to depend on when the storm makes that right hand turn, which will of course have implications for who gets the later weather inland as well.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: StormNine on October 06, 2020, 07:55:17 AM
I know this can chance but I have been impressed so far with the consistency of showing a Louisiana landfall.

Now that I say that watch that change and to where we have models making landfall in the TX/LA border and others in the FL Panhandle in about a day or two. 
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: Eric on October 06, 2020, 10:43:28 AM
TS to a CAT 4 in less than 24 hours.  Remarkable....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ejp9joIWsAIYSMi?format=png&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: StormNine on October 06, 2020, 11:20:59 AM
Pretty much every model is a Cancun to a Morgan City, LA hit. Amazing consistency.  May be time to start getting nervous in Central and Southeastern Louisiana.   
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: Thundersnow on October 06, 2020, 11:24:21 AM
Delta heading to the Delta.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: cgauxknox on October 06, 2020, 11:41:42 AM
TS to a CAT 4 in less than 24 hours.  Remarkable....
::wow::  ::wow::  ::wow::
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: StormNine on October 06, 2020, 02:34:53 PM
I really wish the NHC or whoever is in charge properly retires this name instead of sticking a year next to it if it does to Cancun what I think it may be about to do.   
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: StormNine on October 06, 2020, 05:32:09 PM
Latest forecast still has it as a 65MPH Tropical Storm not far from Greenville, MS.  If that verifies it could still produce tropical storm conditions as far north/northeast as Oxford or Tupelo,MS. 
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: cgauxknox on October 06, 2020, 06:47:05 PM
Watching TWC tonight and they're talking about Delta as a strong Cat 3 at Gulf coast landfall. There isn't much time left to prepare or effectively order evacuations. This could quickly get really scary.
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: schneitzeit on October 06, 2020, 09:16:53 PM
LSU moved their game to Columbia, MO because of the hurricane threat

Take notes, Gators
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: gcbama on October 06, 2020, 09:34:55 PM
LSU moved their game to Columbia, MO because of the hurricane threat



Take notes, Gators

i am thinking Bama ole miss may move to tuscaloosa instead of oxford or maybe a netural site somewhere in southeast since a tropical storm will be going on in north ms during game time
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: cgauxknox on October 07, 2020, 07:04:57 AM
While all the potential shuffling of college football games is unfortunate I have to wonder if there's a lot less concern this year than there would be otherwise. With such limited capacities and small crowd noise I don't know how much home field advantage there is this year. It's hard to find positives from COVID but maybe that sort of counts?
Title: Re: Another GoM Double Header
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2020, 07:36:58 AM
Cancun took a hit, but they sorta got lucky as Delta underwent an Eye-Replacement cycle causing it to come into Cancun as a CAT 2 versus a CAT 4/borderline CAT 5.   

The storm is now transitioning from a compact storm to a traditional GOM storm with a wider eye and larger wind field. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 07, 2020, 09:19:31 AM
Renamed the thread to be more Delta-specific, since Gamma was kind of meh.
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2020, 10:02:21 AM
Galveston is under a Tropical Storm Watch. Still no Hurricane Watches yet but figured that they probably need to be coming out in the next 3 hours since we are about 40-48 hours away from impact somewhere in Louisiana. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2020, 10:08:04 AM
The strike zone looks to be consistent as somewhere between Cameron and Morgan City. 

Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 07, 2020, 11:34:12 AM
The forecast cone now shows Delta as a Tropical Storm all the way into southern Arkansas. It will be interesting to see if it can actually hold together that well over land, but if it does I expect we may see widespread power outages from wind damage and potentially some inland flooding as well.
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2020, 12:13:37 PM
The latest track is only about 40 maybe 50 miles at most from where Laura made landfall about 6 weeks ago.   
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: mempho on October 07, 2020, 03:23:50 PM
i am thinking Bama ole miss may move to tuscaloosa instead of oxford or maybe a netural site somewhere in southeast since a tropical storm will be going on in north ms during game time
Tropical storm is playable plus I don't think it's in the interest of Ole Miss to move the game-  they will need plenty of help.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2020, 05:41:32 PM
A faster Hurricane Gustav is the best analog for this storm as far as intensity and impacts go. A CAT 2 that will probably contain a CAT 3 like surge and some wind potential. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 08, 2020, 06:22:13 AM
This morning's forecast cone looks like Delta is going to be much slower after landfall. It's showing as still in north Mississippi on Sunday morning rather than all the way into Kentucky or Virginia. That could really change inland flood risks.
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: StormNine on October 08, 2020, 06:55:09 AM
It also has trended slightly west towards another Cameron, LA landfall versus New Iberia.   
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: StormNine on October 08, 2020, 09:17:11 PM
Quote
ABBEVILLE, La. (KLFY) Vermilion Parish officials have issued a Mandatory Evaucation for any low lying areas prone to flooding and trailers. There is a Voluntary Evacuation for all areas below LA Hwy 14.

Here is the statement they released:

Effective immediately, the Vermilion Parish Police Jury has ordered a Mandatory Evacuation for these areas. If the storm maintains its current track and projected strength as a CAT 3 or higher, it will cause massive tidal flooding with a possible 11 foot or higher storm surge and catastrophic wind damage to structures in Vermilion Parish creating a very dangerous situation to include loss of life.

Evacuation for these areas are Mandatory: Any low lying areas prone to flooding and trailersThose choosing to stay and face this very dangerous storm must understand that rescue efforts cannot and will not begin until after the storm and surge has passed and it is sag.

Please evacuate and if you choose to stay and we cant get to you, write your name, address, social security number and next of kin and put it in a Ziploc bag in your pocket that it does not come to this!Expecting the worse but praying for the best.

BE SAFE AND GOD BLESS!!

Voluntary Evacuation for all areas below LA Hwy 14.

Even with a CAT 2 instead of a 3 landfall you will have a significant surge threat. Probably even more widespread than Laura even if it isn't as severe as Laura. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: mempho on October 08, 2020, 09:59:25 PM
So, it has to be on the back of your mind since it's 2020 but the fact that this storm is named Delta (and it's a potential major US landfall) and its slated to go thru the delta of the largest river in North America....

Well, I can just feel a wild card coming.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: dwagner88 on October 09, 2020, 07:57:43 AM
Wasn't expecting the rain so soon. It hasn't even made landfall yet.
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: StormNine on October 09, 2020, 10:21:10 AM
We give models a lot of grieve but they scored a huge win with Delta as far as landfall position.  Within the past 48-72 hours, they nailed the area between Cameron and Abbeville, LA as the landfall point and now it looks to make landfall east of Cameron or about 10-25 miles east of where Laura went.

They also had landfall pretty conistent at either a CAT 2 or 3 storm and now barring a rapid weakening phase it looks to come in as a 105MPH-110MPH CAT 2.
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: gcbama on October 09, 2020, 10:23:50 AM
We give models a lot of grieve but they scored a huge win with Delta as far as landfall position.  Within the past 48-72 hours, they nailed the area between Cameron and Abbeville, LA as the landfall point and now it looks to make landfall east of Cameron or about 10-25 miles east of where Laura went.

They also had landfall pretty conistent at either a CAT 2 or 3 storm and now barring a rapid weakening phase it looks to come in as a 105MPH-110MPH CAT 2.

GFS nailed this western track 3 days ago, quite impressive
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: Eric on October 09, 2020, 11:10:53 AM
GFS nailed this western track 3 days ago, quite impressive

GFS has done surprisingly well with the tropical events this season. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: gcbama on October 09, 2020, 11:38:21 AM
GFS has done surprisingly well with the tropical events this season.

if only our winter storm promises the GFS makes us 4 days in advance would pan out so well LOL!!!!!
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 09, 2020, 12:44:38 PM
if only our winter storm promises the GFS makes us 4 days in advance would pan out so well LOL!!!!!

Oh boy, here we go again  ::)
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: gcbama on October 09, 2020, 02:18:14 PM
Oh boy, here we go again  ::)

you know how butthurt I get over that LOL!
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: dwagner88 on October 09, 2020, 05:26:50 PM
Some of the globals are hinting at some training convection Sunday in the eastern TN valley. That could present some isolated very heavy rain totals if it comes to fruition. Looks like the GFS is alone in showing lighter rain amounts of around 1. Euro, UK, Canadian all have 2-3 widespread. The higher res models have pockets of 4-6, but they appear to be based on convection becoming rooted in isolated parts of the valley.
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 09, 2020, 07:33:46 PM
you know how butthurt I get over that LOL!

We'll start up a GoFundMe for you to retreat to a cabin in northern Michigan for a few days
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: mamMATTus on October 10, 2020, 05:59:21 PM
Gotta say I wasn't expecting to see this many TOR's in Georgia. Southeast TN needs to be on the lookout.
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2020, 07:02:50 PM
So far no reports out of the tornado warnings.  They might haver some rotation and bite but they aren't getting on the ground. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Delta (Another GoM Double Header)
Post by: dwagner88 on October 10, 2020, 10:47:43 PM
2.45 in the bucket today. Might get a storm total over 3 by tomorrow afternoon.