Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: Thundersnow on September 29, 2020, 09:06:30 AM

Title: October 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on September 29, 2020, 09:06:30 AM
First few days look nicely cool, very unlike last year (upper 90s to start the month).
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on September 29, 2020, 09:15:18 AM
It seems like a long time since October felt like October. Once the rain clears out today it looks like we've got a long stretch of absolutely beautiful fall weather. Sometimes it's the little things that make us happy  ::yum::  ;D  ::yum::
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: gcbama on September 29, 2020, 10:19:46 AM
It seems like a long time since October felt like October. Once the rain clears out today it looks like we've got a long stretch of absolutely beautiful fall weather. Sometimes it's the little things that make us happy  ::yum::  ;D  ::yum::

it is just plain LOVELY...been about 4 years :)
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: BRUCE on September 29, 2020, 11:19:10 AM
October is the driest month of the year...
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: TNHunter on September 30, 2020, 03:09:03 PM
This gusty SW wind is raining leaves off the trees!
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: StormNine on September 30, 2020, 05:01:18 PM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Today in past 7+ day outlooks we present to you:

1998-99's winter pattern (yes Bruce I know)     
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: gcbama on October 01, 2020, 09:03:48 AM
The past several days have been incredible and the next several will be as well.....I cannot believe we actually have an autumn this year, forgot what it felt like :)
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Coach B on October 02, 2020, 07:40:22 AM
Saw the first frost of the year this morning! You had to look real close, but it was there in a couple of the low lying ditches. Lots of readings in the 30s in rural west and middle TN on the 5:00 and 6:00 obs.

*Last year on this date the high was 99 in Nashville.  ::hot::
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: TNHunter on October 02, 2020, 08:22:37 AM
Saw the first frost of the year this morning! You had to look real close, but it was there in a couple of the low lying ditches. Lots of readings in the 30s in rural west and middle TN on the 5:00 and 6:00 obs.

*Last year on this date the high was 99 in Nashville.  ::hot::

Hit 41 here in NW TN, almost to the point where the heat had to come on in the truck and the windows had to be rolled up, but not quite yet. 
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: nrgJeff on October 02, 2020, 08:46:31 AM
I think fall foliage is still in good shape. We have perfect weather for the next 7-10 days; cool nights and warm days. We do need to avoid any hybrid system action around October 10-12. Fingers crossed no wet and windy.

Then the weather pattern looks still fairly dry on the ECMWF weeklies much of October. Weak fronts and scattered showers are not show stoppers. Just can't have a bowling ball come up with mountain wave winds. Barring a strange hybrid system, I like the outlook for colorful leaves.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: JHart on October 02, 2020, 10:13:09 AM
Saw the first frost of the year this morning! You had to look real close, but it was there in a couple of the low lying ditches. Lots of readings in the 30s in rural west and middle TN on the 5:00 and 6:00 obs.

*Last year on this date the high was 99 in Nashville.  ::hot::

The temperature dropped to 36F in the creek bed (39F at the house).  Definitely the chilliest we have seen out here since the first week of May.  Time to break out the Halloween inflatables.  ::guitar::
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Clay on October 02, 2020, 10:29:32 AM
41F IMBY. Sparta the big winner this AM at 34F.  ::cold::
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on October 02, 2020, 08:07:17 PM
Interesting tidbit:
https://www.chattanoogan.com/2020/10/2/416132/Tennessee-Valley-Has-Wettest-12-Month.aspx (https://www.chattanoogan.com/2020/10/2/416132/Tennessee-Valley-Has-Wettest-12-Month.aspx)
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: JHart on October 03, 2020, 08:40:53 AM
The creek bed chilled to 34F last night (37F at the house).  There was a good amount of slushy frost on the grass.  Mowing season is almost over. 

This weather is too perfect not to be outside.  We are headed to the sorghum festival at Muddy Pond up on the plateau today.  ::bacon::
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2020, 08:48:01 AM
The creek bed chilled to 34F last night (37F at the house).  There was a good amount of slushy frost on the grass.  Mowing season is almost over. 

This weather is too perfect not to be outside.  We are headed to the sorghum festival at Muddy Pond up on the plateau today.  ::bacon::
it is amazing outside perfect weather, we are headed to the pork n beans festival in medina tonite... you can eat all the beans u want, imagine the ole wife have me sleeping on the ole sofa tonite... ;)
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on October 03, 2020, 09:11:32 AM
We just got back in from a long walk at the park on a perfect fall morning. Now to put my feet up for pregame and a noon kickoff. GBO!
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: StormNine on October 03, 2020, 12:19:25 PM
The coming pattern after this cooldown strongly resembles October 2005. 

A very dry and pretty warm month, one of the driest months on record for our area. With this pattern Florida may be vulnerable later with a tropical threat though.   
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2020, 02:37:10 PM
Just a pretty fall day be outside after a big vols win again... getting a few pecans off ground from my tree ... bout week away from peek pecan season here
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2020, 04:28:14 PM
Know this donít apply to this topic ... but starting get mix info on our president tonite... word getting out next 48 hours very critical to president trump. Prayers go out to our president for a soeedy recovery
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Eric on October 03, 2020, 05:40:40 PM
Don't start with the politics y'all.  Thanks in advance.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2020, 06:06:14 PM
Don't start with the politics y'all.  Thanks in advance.
just applying that our president of the United States needs prayer ...  personally politics is not my thing anyways
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: ryandourius on October 03, 2020, 06:41:01 PM
Don't start with the politics y'all.  Thanks in advance.

The censorship attempts are unreal now. Revive the COVID thread for us. Haha
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on October 03, 2020, 06:56:52 PM
The censorship attempts are unreal now. Revive the COVID thread for us. Haha

Heck no. That thing was awful.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: ryandourius on October 05, 2020, 09:11:23 AM
Heck no. That thing was awful.

I 💯 percent agree with you there. It sure would of been nice to vent and say I told you so though.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: StormNine on October 05, 2020, 10:09:35 AM
Back on topic, some areas of Western KY had a freeze overnight.  We got down to 37F. 

We do look to warm back up and it appears like we have a very October 2005 pattern setting up that minus Delta's influence looks dry if you can avoid Delta.   
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on October 05, 2020, 06:36:42 PM
I'm seeing a brief warmup this week to high temperatures 5-10 degrees AN. After that, we appear to cool to about average. What do y'all see?
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: StormNine on October 05, 2020, 07:24:24 PM
Looks to me we are stuck in a lull/weakness between two ridges.  One in the Northeast and one from Texas to the Desert SW. 

That would prevent temperatures from getting too far above-average, but still warmish in the mid to long-range. Pattern is not too dissimilar from what we exprienced this summer at times.   
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on October 07, 2020, 01:33:59 PM
I do enjoy these warm, dry fall days... DP is still nice and low, so it's not summertime heat and humidity by any stretch, and I don't mind the reprieve from the chilliness immediately behind a cold front. It's sort of a hammock kind of day, and you can break out the shorts and t-shirt if you want.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Beth on October 07, 2020, 02:11:30 PM
I do enjoy these warm, dry fall days... DP is still nice and low, so it's not summertime heat and humidity by any stretch, and I don't mind the reprieve from the chilliness immediately behind a cold front. It's sort of a hammock kind of day, and you can break out the shorts and t-shirt if you want.

Indian Summer! Love it!  But the ragweed is not my friend! Thank goodness for Claritan!
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: snowdog on October 08, 2020, 10:11:55 PM
I do enjoy these warm, dry fall days... DP is still nice and low, so it's not summertime heat and humidity by any stretch, and I don't mind the reprieve from the chilliness immediately behind a cold front. It's sort of a hammock kind of day, and you can break out the shorts and t-shirt if you want.

Been up in the Black Hills of SD this week. Unseasonably warm up here. Went to Badlands today and it was 87.

Beautiful country up here though. I'd recommend it.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on October 09, 2020, 07:24:06 AM
Been up in the Black Hills of SD this week. Unseasonably warm up here. Went to Badlands today and it was 87.

Beautiful country up here though. I'd recommend it.

We're off a week lol. I was there the week before.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on October 10, 2020, 11:03:39 AM
Noticed an enhanced SE ridge beyond the 200+ hours of today's 0z GFS run

Temps cool after this weekend's AN tropical weather, but appear to rise again to AN in the long range--- we will see if this holds. Very dependent on the tropics
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: snowdog on October 10, 2020, 10:03:29 PM
We're off a week lol. I was there the week before.

They said they got a decent snow around labor day, but it was warm all week. I can't imagine driving those mountain roads in the snow. Glad we had good weather.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2020, 10:37:38 PM
Noticed an enhanced SE ridge beyond the 200+ hours of today's 0z GFS run

Temps cool after this weekend's AN tropical weather, but appear to rise again to AN in the long range--- we will see if this holds. Very dependent on the tropics

The long range may be a preview to what winter will be like.  With strong ridging in the Desert SW and along the I-81/I-95 corridors and a cool area in between.  Potentially setting up a battle ground zone from Middle TN through the I-44 area.

The Euro monthlies show a everybody in Canada and the USA minus a few select NW Canada and Pacific Northwest/High Plains locations after January is set on fire by warmth to record warmth this upcoming winter.   
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2020, 10:45:14 PM
The dive to -1.5C ish significant La-Nina conditions by November followed by a quick return to Neutral ENSO conditions by March is interesting.  It could be a significant but very short-lived event. 

We haven't recorded an winter that got down to -1.5C but it only -1.0C for only say like 3 tri-month periods.  The other option that typically happens is that models tend to want to end both Nino and Nina events too early. 
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on October 12, 2020, 10:48:43 AM
Foliage is definitely well on its way, and I'm optimistic we're going to see some nice color over the next week or two, with another cool snap this week with 60s/40s. Some young trees in my neighborhood are already peaking out with yellows, oranges, and reds. Seems like Delta didn't strip off too much at least in my area. Love this gradual stepdown like fall should be. Trees and plants should be able to slide gently into winter dormancy before the first hard freeze ends the growing season.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on October 12, 2020, 10:59:32 AM
This is the time of year, when it starts to be fun to look at forecasts for mountains of the Pacific Northwest.

Mount Rainier, WA:

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 24 by 3am. Wind chill values between 1 and 8. Windy, with a west southwest wind 24 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 14 by 5pm. Wind chill values between -1 and -11. Windy, with a west southwest wind 48 to 53 mph increasing to 55 to 60 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.



Nashville_Wx, if you're out there, this is your kind of weather. You're probably hiking in it.  >:D
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: TNHunter on October 12, 2020, 04:50:39 PM
This has been the best fall in years. Next 15 days looks to be nice and cool possibly BN.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: nrgJeff on October 15, 2020, 07:54:48 AM
Agree fall foliage will be great this year. Higher elevations of the Blue Ridge and Smoky Mtns were lit last weekend. We will take a drive and hike in the 3,000 FT range this weekend. Following weekend will be the 2,000 FT operation.

Regarding La Nina moderate but quick, storm chasers hope for a +TNI coming out of Nina. It would be warm waters right off South America, with continuing cool out in the 3.4 region. That's approximate. Google Trans Nina Index for pictures.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Curt on October 15, 2020, 08:17:13 AM
This has been the best fall in years. Next 15 days looks to be nice and cool possibly BN.
Fall foliage in the West is usually ok- but we are 2 weeks early with it here and itís lighting up. The next 2 weeks should be ideal.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2020, 08:29:48 AM
Fall foliage in the West is usually ok- but we are 2 weeks early with it here and itís lighting up. The next 2 weeks should be ideal.
always remember it being Alabama Tennessee game week is peak for fall foliage here... next week be getting close
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: TNHunter on October 15, 2020, 07:02:52 PM
Light misty rain tonight with a low of 38, only 6 degrees away from seeing snowflakes in West TN tonight mid October. Pretty cool.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on October 15, 2020, 07:50:43 PM
GFS believes our first freeze will arrive before the end of the month, around 10 days from now.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2020, 10:30:26 PM
Light misty rain tonight with a low of 38, only 6 degrees away from seeing snowflakes in West TN tonight mid October. Pretty cool.
Halloween night of 93 we got 2 n half inches snow that night here west tn area..
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: joemomma on October 16, 2020, 08:17:46 AM
I can remember snow on Halloween a couple of times in my life - '93 was one of them. 
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on October 16, 2020, 11:48:54 AM
Frost advisories are going up for tonight and tomorrow morning.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: gcbama on October 16, 2020, 01:16:32 PM
Frost advisories are going up for tonight and tomorrow morning.

this may be a dumb question....how cold do temps normally have to be for frost to form?
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: TNHunter on October 16, 2020, 02:03:17 PM
this may be a dumb question....how cold do temps normally have to be for frost to form?

32 degrees lol the freezing point of water.  Many people think it can form at higher temperatures because they see frost when the low was only 38 or whatever.  Where you see frost, the temperature on the surface of that material is 32 degrees.

I have heard of a lot of old timers talking about the poison in frost that kills plants lol.  They water their plants early in the morning to "wash off the poison" lol.  Old sayings
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: BRUCE on October 16, 2020, 02:05:21 PM
32 degrees lol the freezing point of water.  Many people think it can form at higher temperatures because they see frost when the low was only 38 or whatever.  Where you see frost, the temperature on the surface of that material is 32 degrees.
i have seen frost form at 36 degrees. F
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: TNHunter on October 16, 2020, 02:06:34 PM
Did you actually take a temperature reading at the surface where the frost was?  If you see frost and the air temperature is only 36-38 that doesn't mean at the surface of the material with frost isn't 32.  Cold air is more dense than warm air so it sinks.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on October 16, 2020, 02:12:50 PM
Frost can form with air temperatures above freezing, into the upper 30s.

I think it's a radiational cooling thing... exposed surfaces can actually cool below the ambient air temperature. Someone else might provide a more precise answer.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Crockett on October 16, 2020, 05:46:57 PM

I have heard of a lot of old timers talking about the poison in frost that kills plants lol.  They water their plants early in the morning to "wash off the poison" lol.  Old sayings

Don't laugh. It might not be poison but it works. When I put out my garden too early and there's frost in the forecast, I have actually turned on my sprinklers to keep frost from forming and killing the plants. Obviously that's not going to work if temps are cold enough for falling water to freeze on contact, but if that's the case then we're dealing with a freeze advisory/warning rather than a frosty advisory and that's gonna be an entirely different animal.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: TNHunter on October 16, 2020, 07:08:59 PM
Don't laugh. It might not be poison but it works. When I put out my garden too early and there's frost in the forecast, I have actually turned on my sprinklers to keep frost from forming and killing the plants. Obviously that's not going to work if temps are cold enough for falling water to freeze on contact, but if that's the case then we're dealing with a freeze advisory/warning rather than a frosty advisory and that's gonna be an entirely different animal.

I agree it does work, just thought the poison part was funny
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: gcbama on October 16, 2020, 10:19:29 PM
Frost can form with air temperatures above freezing, into the upper 30s.

I think it's a radiational cooling thing... exposed surfaces can actually cool below the ambient air temperature. Someone else might provide a more precise answer.

SO basically a freeze advisory means all ground surfaces will be at 32 or below and a frost advisory would mean some surfaces will be at 32 just not everything i gather is what the advisories mean? Always wondered why frost advisory would be issued for temps at 35-38 degrees
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Coach B on October 17, 2020, 06:42:09 AM
SO basically a freeze advisory means all ground surfaces will be at 32 or below and a frost advisory would mean some surfaces will be at 32 just not everything i gather is what the advisories mean?

They issue the freeze advisories when they expect the actual reported air temps to be below freezing throughout the area in question.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on October 17, 2020, 07:00:18 AM
SO basically a freeze advisory means all ground surfaces will be at 32 or below and a frost advisory would mean some surfaces will be at 32 just not everything i gather is what the advisories mean? Always wondered why frost advisory would be issued for temps at 35-38 degrees

Freeze warning is when near or sub-freezing air temperatures are expected for a period of time, which means thereís depth to things freezing... itís penetrating. Frost advisories are issued when air temps are expected to remain above freezing, but frost may form on surfaces, which is a risk for the most sensitive plants. The difference is- itís very ďsurface-y.Ē

Think of it like the difference between a plant getting some of its leaves damaged by frost forming and a freeze outright killing a plant because it froze within its stems to the core.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: JHart on October 17, 2020, 11:28:49 AM
This morning, the temperature dropped to 30F in the creek bottom about one hundred feet away from the house.  We had a heavy frost on the grass, but latent heat from the bricks and sidewalk protected the weary summer annuals.

Time for one final mow this afternoon before I surrender the yard to wild onions until April.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2020, 12:13:22 PM
12Z Goofus puts our first snowstorm on the map 10 days from now. Lol
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 18, 2020, 01:33:32 PM
Yep just seen that, I do think the midwest has a good chance. Would be nice to get a good snowpack to the northwest early in the year with staying power. But keeping it there without a quick melt is the concern, especially this time of year. The last snow in october in my area that actually covered the ground was Halloween of 1993, the first year I moved into woodlawn. It covered the grassy areas and most stayed on the ground through the next day. I remember when I was around 5 years old, I think it was 1969 that we had 3-4 inches on the ground Halloween night it snowed all day long and quit around dark. I remember the roads were slushy but the grass was covered. It can snow that early but it's rare and it's been awhile. But there have been a few good snows in early november if you go to the record books. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: BRUCE on October 18, 2020, 02:24:34 PM
12Z Goofus puts our first snowstorm on the map 10 days from now. Lol
not happening ... lol
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2020, 02:32:05 PM
not happening ... lol

Sure you don't want to cash out, Bruce? You're slated for 8". Seems legit  ::rofl:: ::shrug::
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: BRUCE on October 18, 2020, 02:39:15 PM
Sure you don't want to cash out, Bruce? You're slated for 8". Seems legit  ::rofl:: ::shrug::
i cash out now call it a winter man lol
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 18, 2020, 05:44:00 PM
Sure you don't want to cash out, Bruce? You're slated for 8". Seems legit  ::rofl:: ::shrug::
Your prediction for the winter early this month gave me 12 for the year, if I get that I will be watching your forecast in the future. I sure hope that comes to pass. I would cash out for 12 right now! Winter in Tennessee is like a box of chocolates you never know what your going to get. LOL!
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 10:35:47 AM
Really having a hard time leaving the 80 degree days behind us. Have a few more this week and flirting with a couple more in the long range.
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: BRUCE on October 19, 2020, 11:03:27 AM
Really having a hard time leaving the 80 degree days behind us. Have a few more this week and flirting with a couple more in the long range.
good thing ... enjoy low 80s this time year perfect late October weather
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: Coach B on October 19, 2020, 11:24:12 AM
good thing ... enjoy low 80s this time year perfect late October weather

I wholeheartedly agree with you on this. I'll take dry and warm all the way thru December. ::lookaround:: Then give me a couple of weeks of snow and the deep freeze in January.  ::snowman:: ::cold::
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: nrgJeff on October 19, 2020, 11:53:34 AM
Saturday October 17 on the Cherohala Skyway about 4,500 FT. I figure this coming weekend will be better between 3,000 and 4,000 FT where it was pretty green still.

[attach=1]
Title: Re: October 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on October 19, 2020, 05:01:17 PM
Really having a hard time leaving the 80 degree days behind us. Have a few more this week and flirting with a couple more in the long range.
Iíll not complain. We hit 100 twice last year in October. This is fantastic weather in comparison.