Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Tropical Spin Zone => Topic started by: StormNine on September 12, 2020, 01:40:00 PM

Title: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: StormNine on September 12, 2020, 01:40:00 PM
Tropical Sally formed off the SW coast of Florida and is now expected to make landfall somewhere on the LA/MS coast later this week.  It's slow-motion means that both surge and heavy rainfall are legit threats.   
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: Nashville_Wx on September 12, 2020, 05:02:19 PM
Ughh! I like it like that
She working that back, I don't know how to act
Slow motion for me, slow motion for me
Slow motion for me, move in slow motion for me
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: StormNine on September 12, 2020, 08:11:44 PM
Conditions look to be quite favorable for Sally between now and her landfall.  The tropical wave in the western half of the GOM is actually helping in flinging more moist air into the eastern GOM.   

A rapid intensification period like her older sister Laura cannot be discounted at this point in time.   
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: cgauxknox on September 13, 2020, 05:37:15 AM
The track right now is showing Sally as a TD just south of Chattanooga by Friday morning. Will this be another one that we see eventually come off the east coast and redevelop into a tropical or subtropical system?
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: StormNine on September 13, 2020, 06:56:59 AM
The only slightly good news is that she is trending just a little bit faster.  Still some areas still look to have tropical storm conditions for 36 to 48 hours and the potential is there for a CAT 2 or even CAT 3 at landfall which is not good for SE LA or the MS gulf coast. 

Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: WXHD on September 13, 2020, 07:15:24 AM
Keeping a sharp eye on this one. We’re headed to Dauphin island,AL for fall break. Last summer we were run off the island by a hurricane. This summer the house we had reserved was damaged by a TS the week before our arrival. Waiting to see what this one brings. I do not like 2020. 
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: StormNine on September 13, 2020, 08:35:32 AM
The fact that Sally is moving a little bit faster than expected plus it is taking a little bit longer to get organized are the saving graces. 

Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: gcbama on September 13, 2020, 01:39:21 PM
The only slightly good news is that she is trending just a little bit faster.  Still some areas still look to have tropical storm conditions for 36 to 48 hours and the potential is there for a CAT 2 or even CAT 3 at landfall which is not good for SE LA or the MS gulf coast.

Are you thinking another rapid strengthening storm is coming....it just doesn't look that organized yet to me....but then again it still has about 30-36 hours to work with and lots of warm water
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: dwagner88 on September 13, 2020, 01:43:32 PM
The Euro says that Sally will eliminate my summer rainfall deficit. 8.4” of rain here. GFS is just under half that much. The track is very similar to Tropical Storm Lee which set a new 24 hr rainfall record of 10.4” here in 2011.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: StormNine on September 13, 2020, 02:09:31 PM
Are you thinking another rapid strengthening storm is coming....it just doesn't look that organized yet to me....but then again it still has about 30-36 hours to work with and lots of warm water

As of now it does look like these is some moderate shear around.  If that decreases then there could be a rapid strengthening period, she is a smaller storm so that means she can pick up strength faster. Since she is trending a bit faster as well as her organization issues I think the risk of anything higher than a borderline CAT 1/CAT 2 storm has gone down quite a bit since last night.  If she continues to trend faster than perhaps the storm surge threat may not be quite as bad, but still very significant.  Probably along the lines of Hurricane Isaac back in 2012. 
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: StormNine on September 13, 2020, 03:32:53 PM
Some models and now the NHC is showing a widespread 2-5 inches or rain from a cold front interacting with Sally's moisture across much of Middle and Eastern TN. With the events of today that is not good news.   
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: cgauxknox on September 14, 2020, 09:44:26 AM
It looks to me like Sally's inland track has shifted south since yesterday. Any ideas about what that means for the potential TN impacts?
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2020, 10:05:38 AM
It looks to me like Sally's inland track has shifted south since yesterday. Any ideas about what that means for the potential TN impacts?

If the euro is correct, maybe extreme SE Tennessee will get some rain directly from the hurricane, but no one else. Its much drier state wide.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: Eric on September 14, 2020, 10:29:57 AM
The further east Sally slides, the chances of Tennessee seeing measurable impacts decreases.  Once she makes landfall - wherever that may be - she's taking a hard right and moving on out.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: Thundersnow on September 14, 2020, 10:43:28 AM
The further east Sally slides, the chances of Tennessee seeing measurable impacts decreases.  Once she makes landfall - wherever that may be - she's taking a hard right and moving on out.

Nolensville will appreciate that.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: JKT1987 on September 14, 2020, 10:49:04 AM
Latest SFMR would support hurricane intensity at 80-90 mph
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: JKT1987 on September 14, 2020, 10:50:20 AM
Also pressure down into the mid-980s...a 10-15 mb drop in the last three hours
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: JKT1987 on September 14, 2020, 11:04:36 AM
NHC special advisory on the way
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: NismoWx on September 14, 2020, 11:36:40 AM
Slowpoke Sally is now Mustang Sally as a Cat 1 Hurricane. Can't say we're surprised, right?
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: gcbama on September 14, 2020, 12:23:37 PM
Slowpoke Sally is now Mustang Sally as a Cat 1 Hurricane. Can't say we're surprised, right?

quite a big jump to 90 mph in a short time....could we be seeing rapid intensification ?
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: gcbama on September 14, 2020, 01:59:09 PM
interesting, seems like people don't want to discuss weather anymore  :(
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: TNHunter on September 14, 2020, 02:09:05 PM
I think it is just because it is a tropical system.  Not many folks keep up with that in Tennessee.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: WXHD on September 14, 2020, 02:09:28 PM
Dauphin Island expecting 6-9’ surge. That’s where we’re “supposed” to go do fall break next month. Crap.
Title: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2020, 02:25:46 PM
Both US tropical models have Sally now making landfall along the MS/AL border, sparing NOLA. That’s good news for them but the surge up Mobile Bay could be more problematic.

Tennessee looks drier than ever on the latest Euro.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: dwagner88 on September 14, 2020, 02:49:41 PM
Both US tropical models have Sally now making landfall along the MS/AL border, sparing NOLA. That’s good news for them but the surge up Mobile Bay could be more problematic.

Tennessee looks drier than ever on the latest Euro.
No kidding. Euro went from 8.4" here to less than 0.50" in 24 hours. GFS actually ticked back up to just over 3" this afternoon. I really could use some rain from this. I'm running at about 50% normal since June.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: gcbama on September 14, 2020, 02:54:18 PM
I am thinking between Pascagoula ms and ft morgan if where the eye will pass
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: NismoWx on September 14, 2020, 03:47:30 PM
Sister lives within the potential storm surge in Chotcawatchee Bay. Told her if Sally moves just slightly north, she'll have ocean front property.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: gcbama on September 14, 2020, 04:01:58 PM
I am scared for anybody on dauphin island
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: NismoWx on September 14, 2020, 04:20:30 PM
Mustang Sally is now a CAT 2. This is going to catch a lot of people off guard around the MS/AL line.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: gcbama on September 14, 2020, 04:40:46 PM
I do believe she met threshold for rapid intensification , wasn't she at 65 mph this am and now 100 mph
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: StormNine on September 14, 2020, 05:01:00 PM
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Chattanooga is on the northeastern fringle of the flooding potential but it has definitely shifted towards the south more probably in relation to the eastward trend of Sally. 
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: Nash_LSU on September 15, 2020, 07:55:56 AM
She's just going to sit there and dump beaucoup rain on the coast for the next day. It's going to be a pretty bad flood event as she pushes surge northward and doesn't allow the rivers to drain to the south.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: dwagner88 on September 15, 2020, 11:16:49 AM
The Euro brought the rain back last night. Over 4" here, almost 12" just south in Rome, GA. Let's see if it sticks around for the 12Z run. The GFS is much lighter, with just under 2".
Aaaaannnd it’s gone again. No clue if it’s going to rain at all. It seems anything from a trace to 4” is on the table.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: StormNine on September 15, 2020, 07:28:12 PM
Sally is pretty much the Floriabama verison of Hurricane Isaac back in 2012. 

Slow-moving CAT 1 storm with lots of rain and probably a CAT 2/perhaps even CAT 3 style surge because it has been sitting there collecting water.   
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: Thundersnow on September 16, 2020, 07:45:46 AM
100 mph winds Sally just grinding the coast between Mobile and Pensacola overnight and this morning.

Looks like minimal impacts from remnants here now. My forecast only shows 20 percent shower chances through tomorrow before the cool down.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: NismoWx on September 16, 2020, 05:46:30 PM
Sister in Niceville made it through the storm. Cell service is really spotty, power goes in and out as it pleases, internet has been down all day, but the storm surge didn't make it as far into the neighborhood as forecast, thankfully.

They were unbelievably lucky. A five minute drive in any direction would put you driving into flood waters.

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Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: Thundersnow on September 17, 2020, 07:42:52 AM
Looks like it was rough on the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area also- took out a section of the pier at Gulf State Park.

Rain chances have been removed from the forecast here. Appears the remnants are clipping far E TN.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: cgauxknox on September 17, 2020, 07:47:05 AM
I saw a news report this morning claiming that Pensacola's 30 inches of rain fell in 4 hours. I don't know how accurate that is, but it's hard to even imagine rainfall that heavy. It would be like standing under a giant waterfall.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: dwagner88 on September 17, 2020, 10:13:50 AM
I saw a news report this morning claiming that Pensacola's 30 inches of rain fell in 4 hours. I don't know how accurate that is, but it's hard to even imagine rainfall that heavy. It would be like standing under a giant waterfall.
I think that might be a typo. Probably 24 hours. It likely isn’t physically impossible though. There was a town in Texas that recorded over 12” of rain in a hour during Harvey.

This was a swing and miss for us rainfall wise. Got under 0.40” here. And now the GFS is bone dry for 15 days straight. I’m probably finished mowing after this weekend.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: snowdog on September 17, 2020, 11:06:36 AM
This was a swing and miss for us rainfall wise. Got under 0.40” here. And now the GFS is bone dry for 15 days straight. I’m probably finished mowing after this weekend.

I've mowed my grass more this summer than just about any other I can remember. I'll be more than happy with a good dry stretch.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: Thundersnow on September 17, 2020, 11:08:36 AM
The extent of the effects here- getting breezy, presumably pressure gradient of the remnants moving by to the southeast.
Title: Re: Slowpoke Sally
Post by: NismoWx on September 17, 2020, 12:44:23 PM
The extent of the effects here- getting breezy, presumably pressure gradient of the remnants moving by to the southeast.

Can confirm. I have an eardrum that has ruptured twice in the last 2 years. It popped again yesterday.  ::shrug::