Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: schneitzeit on July 31, 2020, 10:05:17 PM

Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on July 31, 2020, 10:05:17 PM
We're four months from meteorological winter, and winter lovers nation-wide are apt to discuss what to expect this season.

So, let's talk about it.

La Niña is expected to develop during the autumn months[1], though we're not entirely confident in that just yet as we are currently in an ENSO-neutral pattern. La Niña events typically feature increased precipitation for the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, and commonly bring warmer than normal temperatures.

Last winter, we were stable in a weak/moderate El Niño. You can see the trends since 2008 here (credit to NOAA):

[attachimg=1]


Another factor to examine is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This phenomenon is indicated by the pressure discrepancy between the subpolar and subtropical latitudes (on a map, Greenland and the Azores). A +NAO typically results in warmer than normal temperatures in the Eastern U.S. We witnessed this last year [2]:

[attachimg=2]


Yet another factor to analyze is the Madden-Julian Oscillation. This eastward-moving tropical convective system is classified into eight different phases, and it status affects our temperature and precipitation anomalies on a weekly basis. The MJO often traverses the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool every 30-60 days. [3] Take a look, for instance, at the phases of the MJO and their effect on our temperature during the winter months:

[attachimg=3]

More importantly, however, the MJO is more of a short-range tool, as it varies on a weekly basis. So one really couldn't use the status of the MJO for a long-range forecast, if I am not mistaken. But it's yet another tool that helps an amateur weather enthusiast like myself gauge the climate as we descend into the cooler months.


I have simplified a tremendously complex process, and the best insight we have at the present time is probably our seasonal La Niña Watch. But I hope I have invited amiable discussion, and here's to, hopefully, a better winter than the recent ones our state as a whole has experienced. I know statistics just don't work this way, but let's be honest, we're past due for a decent winter.


Sources:

[1] https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
[2]https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/
[3]https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care#:~:text=The%20MJO%20consists%20of%20two,in%20the%20suppressed%20convective%20phase.


Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on July 31, 2020, 11:15:50 PM
Well, for better or worse, you now carry the burden of winter on your shoulders. May God have mercy on your soul.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on August 01, 2020, 08:24:10 AM
way early still... but I am going out. on a limb here, I am going with a warmer than average winter...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 01, 2020, 10:42:28 AM
[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]

We are passed due for a colder and snowier winter and typically a La-Nina should mean an active northern stream although with a SE Ridge, but other factors may dominate the ENSO which looks to be a fairly weak La-Nina.  Just like the MJO and the strong Polar Vortex dominated the El-Nino last winter and the MJO and -PNA dominated the El-Nino in 2018-19. 

With the unusual warmth in the Maritime area/Indian Ocean that is still a strong signal for MJO phases 4-6 the least favorable phases.  Add the very warm Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic Ocean plus the tendacy for a La-Nina to have a ridge component plus recent trends/climate change then I just don't see how you can forecast anything but warmer than average. We at times are still struggling with that pesky ridge off the west coast of Alaska.

In order for us to get below-average we are going to need a strongly -NAO/-AO (we haven't seen a -NAO since 2012-13 and we will likely need a 2010-11 style NAO/AO combo or a super strong -EPO/+PNA with a weaker polar vortex-like 2013-14, 2014-15, or that late Dec/Early January period of 2017-18).

It isn't impossible for us to have a colder/snowier than normal winter but more things are on team warms side than team cools side.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 01, 2020, 10:48:28 AM
Early Analogs:
1952-53
1983-84
2005-06
2016-17
2017-18

There may be some hope that December may be at least around average instead of a blowtorch like we are used to but either January and/or February go above to even way above average just on an analog approach.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 09, 2020, 07:15:57 AM
The Euro Monthlies are pretty much 2016-17 for the November-February timeframe.  Not too dissimilar from my outlook.  It looks like the Polar Vortex may be locked in the poles as well according to that.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on August 09, 2020, 07:48:02 AM
The Euro Monthlies are pretty much 2016-17 for the November-February timeframe.  Not too dissimilar from my outlook.  It looks like the Polar Vortex may be locked in the poles as well according to that.

I would take that. We had a couple snow days that year and duck season was a great one!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on August 14, 2020, 08:30:46 PM
August 13th Update from NOAA:

La Niña development probability has increased to 60%.

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml


Model averages from last month:

[attachimg=1]


Our suspicion of a Weak to Moderate La Niña are coming to fruition.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on August 16, 2020, 10:37:55 PM
Hoping we can get a -NAO this winter, or at least for part of it. We haven't had that in a long time, as evidenced by this chart. A negative NAO, on average, produces better winter weather down here. Take a look:

[attachimg=1]

In recent years, the good winter of 2010-2011 that witnessed a snowy December for TN featured a strong -NAO. Other examples include the record-breaking snowy winter of 1959-1960. You can also see when January 1985 had a -NAO.

The past several winters have all had +NAO patterns, which can make it trickier for snowmakers in Tennessee.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 16, 2020, 11:49:01 PM
I do not think it ultimately matters that much to be honest if you look at it in a IMBY prospective. Events are rarely state wide. Most snowfall events are even localized to area of counties. Winter 40 miles from here could be epic while I see 2" of snow for the year. I am done looking at the fine details this far out. Long range during winter should be 120hr out for TN. Where snowfall rides on 1-2 degree many of times its all a matter of luck really. It could really be that simple guys. No year is really better than another unless you are looking regionally. When is the last time that has happened? Vanilla way to look I know as it takes the fun out of forecasting. But snowfall in TN is many times hopes and dreams.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 17, 2020, 08:34:09 AM
As far as what we really really want snow we can have a favorable pattern and strike out (alas I-40 from Nashville to Memphis in 2013-14) and we can have a not as favorable pattern and sneak in some storms (alas 2015-16 or Chattanogga last Feb).

Obvisously the more favorable a winter you have the more oppurtunities you have but nothing is a 100% guarantee in the South. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on August 17, 2020, 09:29:05 AM
About the only thing that is close to guaranteed in a Tennessee winter is that us in Northwest Tennessee will USUALLY cash in at least once or twice while the rest of the state strikes out.  Lol now I just jinxed us and we will repeat last winter and watch Chattanooga actually cash in.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 17, 2020, 11:56:58 AM
About the only thing that is close to guaranteed in a Tennessee winter is that us in Northwest Tennessee will USUALLY cash in at least once or twice while the rest of the state strikes out.  Lol now I just jinxed us and we will repeat last winter and watch Chattanooga actually cash in.

Last winter we struck out.  In matter of fact there were places in Indiana that didn't even see 1 inch of snow total last winter.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on August 17, 2020, 12:42:21 PM
Last winter we struck out.  In matter of fact there were places in Indiana that didn't even see 1 inch of snow total last winter.

I was in a sweet spot last year. I managed to get 3" over the course of the winter.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on August 17, 2020, 12:43:33 PM
I have higher hopes for this winter than last.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: DocB on August 17, 2020, 01:34:25 PM
I have higher hopes for this winter than last.
It's 2020 - heck, I'm expecting ice storms with how this year has played out.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 17, 2020, 02:45:06 PM
It's 2020 - heck, I'm expecting ice storms with how this year has played out.

Or a Super Tuesday/Super Outbreak style outbreak on Christmas Day after 40-50MPH winds and blowing snow all across our area the week before.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on August 18, 2020, 08:26:07 AM
I was in a sweet spot last year. I managed to get 3" over the course of the winter.

Isn't that sad though, we get excited over 3 inches of snow for a total season now and call it a sweet spot :(  I remember about every other season getting about 3 snows a year that would put down 3-4 inches every time and every few years getting a big 6-8 inch snowfall.

Past 2 seasons I have had 1 inch total , I am hoping for a return to a double digit year this year for the first time in a decade
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on August 18, 2020, 08:57:50 AM
Isn't that sad though, we get excited over 3 inches of snow for a total season now and call it a sweet spot :(  I remember about every other season getting about 3 snows a year that would put down 3-4 inches every time and every few years getting a big 6-8 inch snowfall.

Past 2 seasons I have had 1 inch total , I am hoping for a return to a double digit year this year for the first time in a decade

Wow you have had it rough.  I have been teaching HS for 8 years.  My first 3-4 years we missed between 8-14 days each year.  The only year we haven't been out for snow at least a day was last year.  NW TN is definitely the sweet spot for snow most years. 17-18 winter we were out for 11 days straight early January.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on August 18, 2020, 10:05:17 AM
Wow you have had it rough.  I have been teaching HS for 8 years.  My first 3-4 years we missed between 8-14 days each year.  The only year we haven't been out for snow at least a day was last year.  NW TN is definitely the sweet spot for snow most years. 17-18 winter we were out for 11 days straight early January.

yep lately its that erin,paris Clarksville corridor that gets the snow, but the 412 corridor, we can get hit hard sometimes because that heavy gulf moisture sometimes only goes so far north and we get hammered and north of 40 gets nothing its always a crapshoot lol. I can remember 4 7+ inch snows here and several 4-6 inch snows, but as I said usually we would always average around 7-10 inches per season , we have not come close to that in at least 9 years
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on August 18, 2020, 11:23:22 AM
Wow, that would suck to have that bad of a streak!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on August 18, 2020, 11:31:29 AM
Wow, that would suck to have that bad of a streak!

yeah everybody gets upset at my pessimistic attitude on here during winter , lol well you go through a decade like that and see how you would be LOL
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: joemomma on August 18, 2020, 03:28:04 PM
I've jinxed us all by buying a 4x4 truck two years ago.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on August 18, 2020, 04:12:57 PM
I've jinxed us all by buying a 4x4 truck two years ago.

ugh trade it in LOL
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 18, 2020, 05:23:29 PM
Like every winter since the mid 2010s there are two things that we will very likely being going up against.   

- Warm Indian Ocean values leading to more time spent in MJO Phases 4-6 and higher amplitude events in those. 

- Warm ocean waters especially Gulf, Atlantic, and Caribbean. This would still be a signal for a strong SE Ridge and it means stronger warm air advection events and warm noses as well.   

We could have some 2014-15 or 2017-18 winter like-success but we have to rely on the EPO, PNA, and a weakened polar vortex and we have to have all three to counteract the MJO and the NAO that you know will be raging +.   

I am very concerned that we see another winter where you are stuck in MJO Phases 4-6, the polar vortex locks the cold air at the poles, and there is no significant sustained cold air to be found to our north leading to pretty much a mix of last winter and 2005-06.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 19, 2020, 07:58:31 AM
The Old Farmer's Almanac which usually showers us in cold and snow now is forecasting a warmer and drier winter for us.

You know the optisim isn't there when even the Old Farmer's Almanac is not on your side. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 19, 2020, 11:09:50 AM
Wow you have had it rough.  I have been teaching HS for 8 years.  My first 3-4 years we missed between 8-14 days each year.  The only year we haven't been out for snow at least a day was last year.  NW TN is definitely the sweet spot for snow most years. 17-18 winter we were out for 11 days straight early January.
  That 11 day stretch was as close to late 70s as you can get.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: mempho on August 31, 2020, 02:29:13 PM
Just a Reminder:  King Euro still owes us plus almost 7 years interest:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200831/aeb8c82768ae37e63919965d9f91ea94.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on August 31, 2020, 03:38:37 PM
Just a Reminder:  King Euro still owes us plus almost 7 years interest:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200831/aeb8c82768ae37e63919965d9f91ea94.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

YES PLEASE :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on August 31, 2020, 03:45:20 PM
Don't EURO and GFS burp out something ridiculous like that in the long range nearly every year?

Impressive to have held onto a 200+ hour clown map from 2014.  ::lookaround::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on August 31, 2020, 05:05:35 PM
old farmers almanac going with not so cold and not to wet for us this winter season.... :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 31, 2020, 05:41:32 PM
Outlook 2 out of 3:

Pretty much I took 2017-18 and copied and pasted on to a map. I also wrote 2018-19 and 2019-20 and dashed them out with a thick black line to show my displeasure towards such crappy winters.

I do think that 2017-18 is the top analog for this upcoming winter due to a few reasons.

1) Factors in Climate Change and overall background state

2) Similar ENSO strength

3) An active northern stream is present this summer that reminds me of that winter

4) Warmth in the Indian ocean

5) A very strong Sonora/Southwest Ridge along with ridging signals on the East Coast/Southeast/Western Atlantic   

[attachimg=1]

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Matthew on August 31, 2020, 06:09:50 PM
Outlook 2 out of 3:

Pretty much I took 2017-18 and copied and pasted on to a map. I also wrote 2018-19 and 2019-20 and dashed them out with a thick black line to show my displeasure towards such crappy winters.

I do think that 2017-18 is the top analog for this upcoming winter due to a few reasons.

1) Factors in Climate Change and overall background state

2) Similar ENSO strength

3) An active northern stream is present this summer that reminds me of that winter

4) Warmth in the Indian ocean

5) A very strong Sonora/Southwest Ridge along with ridging signals on the East Coast/Southeast/Western Atlantic   

(Attachment Link)
Agree totally with you outlook.  Honestly I don’t see how anyone can call for cold and snowy anymore.  I do believe we are in for a wet winter.  Seems winters are more wetter than normal.  I also expect a cooler than normal November and March.  All other months warm.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on August 31, 2020, 06:54:16 PM
Actually little to early to make my forecast ... I will do mine mid October ... I will have a full detail forecast as usual month by Month...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on August 31, 2020, 08:10:59 PM
Outlook 2 out of 3:

Pretty much I took 2017-18 and copied and pasted on to a map. I also wrote 2018-19 and 2019-20 and dashed them out with a thick black line to show my displeasure towards such crappy winters.

I do think that 2017-18 is the top analog for this upcoming winter due to a few reasons.

1) Factors in Climate Change and overall background state

2) Similar ENSO strength

3) An active northern stream is present this summer that reminds me of that winter

4) Warmth in the Indian ocean

5) A very strong Sonora/Southwest Ridge along with ridging signals on the East Coast/Southeast/Western Atlantic   

(Attachment Link)

Book 17-18! That was a **** of a January! Cold as balls!

We stayed out of school for like 11 days due to snow and ice. Wanting to say I was off more days that month than I taught.  Fought thick ice for about 3 straight weeks in January that duck season.  Reelfoot lake froze over solid, 5-6 inches thick. People walked all over it.

If I remember right it got frigid cold the week of Christmas and hardly let up through mid to late January. We had at least 2 good snows.

Pretty sure about January 10th or 11th we had a major warm up and the snow and ice started melting some.  It got to like 65 degrees on the 11th then that big he a huge system moved in and temps dropped like 40 degrees and it came a big ice/sleet storm then snowed hard on top of that until about noon on the 12th. Then stayed froze for about 2 weeks straight again.

Pics of that event
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on August 31, 2020, 08:30:36 PM
More
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on August 31, 2020, 10:01:43 PM
Wow. Let me pass out... jb going with warm pretty much except far nw of the country this winter  ::blowtorch::
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on September 01, 2020, 09:01:10 AM
Wow. Let me pass out... jb going with warm pretty much except far nw of the country this winter  ::blowtorch::
And that should the indication it won’t be right just based on that alone.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on September 01, 2020, 09:54:37 AM
And that should the indication it won’t be right just based on that alone.

yes maybe there's now a chance for us LOL
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on September 01, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
And that should the indication it won’t be right just based on that alone.
reverse physiology perhaps ...lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Crockett on September 01, 2020, 12:09:38 PM
Wow. Let me pass out... jb going with warm pretty much except far nw of the country this winter  ::blowtorch::

(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/840/283/350.png)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JHart on September 01, 2020, 06:16:19 PM
reverse physiology perhaps ...lol
I reversed some physiology last week leaning over to prune a hedge.  It's certainly put a chill on my ability to sit upright.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on September 01, 2020, 06:54:44 PM
I reversed some physiology last week leaning over to prune a hedge.  It's certainly put a chill on my ability to sit upright.

I totally did not notice that typo.

I'm starting to understand what Bruce means without reading the right words.   ::doh::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Matthew on September 01, 2020, 08:36:19 PM
yes maybe there's now a chance for us LOL
Well anyone want to bet that yes he swings and misses on his cold and snowy forecast but will hit a grandslam with this warmer forecast. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on September 02, 2020, 04:42:28 PM
Well anyone want to bet that yes he swings and misses on his cold and snowy forecast but will hit a grandslam with this warmer forecast.

His warm forecast in 2010-11 went about as well as his cold winter forecasts since then have went.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on September 02, 2020, 05:36:47 PM
His warm forecast in 2010-11 went about as well as his cold winter forecasts since then have went.
yeah but that winter 10 11 came to a quick halt... once that la nina got stronger...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on September 02, 2020, 06:16:45 PM
not sure where to put this but is anybody going to do a new college football thread :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on September 02, 2020, 07:34:23 PM
not sure where to put this but is anybody going to do a new college football thread :)

Already there- https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,3968.0.html
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on September 03, 2020, 01:47:05 PM
The QBO did a total head fake. It was headed negative, stopped a couple months ago and is now on the quick rise up. It’s the only year in ANY records it’s barely gone negative to start going positive. In all other cases, when it goes negative it tanks for 12 months. But it’s 2020 so why not buck all trends.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on September 25, 2020, 12:14:44 PM
There are some winter winner analogs and some winter loser analogs. As more pieces are coming together here is where we are now:

1. Weak to Mod La Nina- most models are peaking this La Nina in October and keeping it stable through the winter.
2. QBO- positive or westerly
3. PDO- mildly negative
3. AMO- positive as it has for the last 25 years
4. Solar- low- in fact we are in one of the lowest on record
5. IOD- negative (was ridiculously positive last winter)

As long as the La Nina doesn't get strong which is not forecast which would be a torch, I think there will be some chances for winter to be decent at times. 2010-2011 and 1995-96 are similar in fit to the 5 indexes above. There are some negative AMO winters that look similar to the other features that were mild. As always, the EPO, NAO, and AO are all transient so those will be short term reads. The JMA has a brutally cold northern plains and great lakes winter with more mild across the south. With cold air lurking, I would think that even with an overall mild winter, we could do nicely at times. the CFS2 is actually cold from the central plains into the east which def fits the 2010-11 and 1995-96 analogs. As usual, the Euro is a torch; I cant remember when it has caught any cold air past 2-3 weeks. As Storm said, a Sonoran ridge does look likely in the SW- which could swing a SW flow over the area at times. Does a SE ridge appear, too? Perhaps. Its a friend or foe depending on strength. More later as we get closer.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on September 25, 2020, 02:28:15 PM
There are some winter winner analogs and some winter loser analogs. As more pieces are coming together here is where we are now:

1. Weak to Mod La Nina- most models are peaking this La Nina in October and keeping it stable through the winter.
2. QBO- positive or westerly
3. PDO- mildly negative
3. AMO- positive as it has for the last 25 years
4. Solar- low- in fact we are in one of the lowest on record
5. IOD- negative (was ridiculously positive last winter)

As long as the La Nina doesn't get strong which is not forecast which would be a torch, I think there will be some chances for winter to be decent at times. 2010-2011 and 1995-96 are similar in fit to the 5 indexes above. There are some negative AMO winters that look similar to the other features that were mild. As always, the EPO, NAO, and AO are all transient so those will be short term reads. The JMA has a brutally cold northern plains and great lakes winter with more mild across the south. With cold air lurking, I would think that even with an overall mild winter, we could do nicely at times. the CFS2 is actually cold from the central plains into the east which def fits the 2010-11 and 1995-96 analogs. As usual, the Euro is a torch; I cant remember when it has caught any cold air past 2-3 weeks. As Storm said, a Sonoran ridge does look likely in the SW- which could swing a SW flow over the area at times. Does a SE ridge appear, too? Perhaps. Its a friend or foe depending on strength. More later as we get closer.
i am really getting excited about seeing a decent to potent severe wx outbreak also during mid late winter here ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Crockett on September 25, 2020, 02:38:12 PM
i am really getting excited about seeing a decent to potent severe wx outbreak also during mid late winter here ...

Over your house, of course.  ::)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Eric on September 25, 2020, 04:29:58 PM
i am really getting excited about seeing a decent to potent severe wx outbreak also during mid late winter here ...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/AMCyr6zWZ9zXy/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on September 25, 2020, 05:58:29 PM
I am a bit more pessimistic when it comes to the winter outlook, but there are some encourgaging signs.  The legion like Sonora ridge and +PNA structure is one of those.

Hint: if you are Bruce you don't like this because +PNA's tend to be more unfavorable for widespread severe weather. 

The Indian Ocean warmth and tendancy to be strung along Phases 4,5,6, and maybe some time in 7 is yuck.  The climate change warming effect cannot be ignored and with a weaker La-Nina there is always that SE Ridge effect. 

The big wildcard this winter is cue the media "the Polar Vortex" do we have those strong low pressure systems in the poles or in places like the Gulf of Alaksa where we don't want them, which bottle up the cold air way to our north.  Therefore the EPO and the Polar Vortex strength are key and are the reason why 2019-20 and that whole strand of late 90s/early 2000s winters went to crap for pretty much all of the USA and most of Canada.   

I think the two options for winter are:

The Bad: The EPO doesn't cooperate and the Polar Vortex remains too strong so pretty much a repeat of last winter mixed with some 52-53 and 98-99.  Severe weather chances would increase while winter weather chances decrease although a window would exist for an ice storm especially across western and northern areas of TN and points northwest.

The Better:  Some mix of 2017-18 and 1995-96. The 2nd half of February would still torch, but with a weaken polar vortex, some cold air storage from last winter, and the western ridge at times forcing troughing eastward thanks to a +PNA there would be at least one if not even a few periods of colder than average weather and winter storm threats.  Outside of later in February severe weather wouldn't be as much of an issue.  This would probably feature a very warm west and especially southwestern USA, average Pacific NW, below average Upper Midwest and possibility as far south as the Ohio Valley, and average to above-average but changeable Southeastern and East Coast regions. If we want to get colder in the Southeast and East Coast we would need a -NAO.       


Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on September 25, 2020, 07:17:27 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/AMCyr6zWZ9zXy/giphy.gif)
ok....
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on September 27, 2020, 04:30:07 PM
ok....
[/quote

I am going to be busy that day outside? Can you please be more detailed with the day and time?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on September 27, 2020, 11:01:18 PM
Here is my forecast for this winter.

[attachimg=1]



Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on September 27, 2020, 11:44:12 PM
Snowfall forecast for the state. It's probably doo-doo, but whatever. As with sports, I have fun making weather predictions.

We have a weak to possibly moderate La Nina that may strengthen the detested SE ridge, as analogs suggest. That will create some edging for good snows to our state's north and northwest, but with some buckling in the ridge and a favorable storm track (increased precipitation), I believe West Tennessee- especially NW Tennessee- could really benefit from this. Places like southern Middle Tennessee and the southern East TN Valley will too often be on the warm side of the storm tracks to witness snowfall. I think cities like Chattanooga could pick up some minor snow accumulation from an Alberta Clipper, but with a warm winter in the forecast for our region, it might require a combination of sufficient snowpack to our northwest and a -AO to create snowfall in Tennessee's southern reaches.

Bold predictions
1. Nashville gets the most snow of Tennessee's big four cities
2. Northwest Tennessee receives above average snowfall
3. Southern Middle Tennessee and the eastern Valley witness below normal snowfall
4. Tennessee has its first ice storm since 2015
5. Everyone in the state receives at least 1" of snow this winter

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on September 27, 2020, 11:56:29 PM
Snowfall forecast for the state. It's probably doo-doo, but whatever. As with sports, I have fun making weather predictions.

We have a weak to possibly moderate La Nina that may strengthen the detested SE ridge, as analogs suggest. That will create some edging for good snows to our state's north and northwest, but with some buckling in the ridge and a favorable storm track (increased precipitation), I believe West Tennessee- especially NW Tennessee- could really benefit from this. Places like southern Middle Tennessee and the southern East TN Valley will too often be on the warm side of the storm tracks to witness snowfall. I think cities like Chattanooga could pick up some minor snow accumulation from an Alberta Clipper, but with a warm winter in the forecast for our region, it might require a combination of sufficient snowpack to our northwest and a -AO to create snowfall in Tennessee's southern reaches.

Bold predictions
1. Nashville gets the most snow of Tennessee's big four cities
2. Northwest Tennessee receives above average snowfall
3. Southern Middle Tennessee and the eastern Valley witness below normal snowfall
4. Tennessee has its first ice storm since 2015
5. Everyone in the state receives at least 1" of snow this winter

(Attachment Link)
I will take the 12 inches of snow for Clarksville and run right now! ::popcorn::::fingerscrossed::::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on September 28, 2020, 07:26:31 AM
With cold air lurking, I would think that even with an overall mild winter, we could do nicely at times. the CFS2 is actually cold from the central plains into the east which def fits the 2010-11 and 1995-96 analogs.

I appreciate all of the winter thoughts. I don't really know anything, but am fine with the idea of an overall mild winter as long as we get a couple weeks in the deep freeze with some snow. Seems like at least some potential for that during the favored deep winter prime time. The older I get the more I enjoy a warm Nov-Dec and March.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: bugalou on September 30, 2020, 01:44:10 PM
Here is my forecast for this winter.

(Attachment Link)

Considering the pattern thus far, you are brave for going above normal in the North East.  Seems like its really the only place on the planet with consistent cold anomalies over the past 5+ years.  Last year's winter was mild there though on the other hand.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on September 30, 2020, 06:57:37 PM
Yep, I'm with Coach B, enjoy reading everyone's thoughts. Good job guys. Hopefully the colder and snowier forecasts are closer to correct. ;)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on September 30, 2020, 07:29:23 PM
We are now officially in a La Niña ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 01, 2020, 06:52:37 PM
Accuweather's winter forecast.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 01, 2020, 07:06:04 PM
It has quite a bit in common with the one I doctored up Sunday night. You can see the effect La Niña has on winter forecasting.

[attachimg=1]


I find Accuweather's "Snow at times" over Minnesota to be comically vague. Bold prediction, guys- there will be snow at times in Minnesota. How about being a little more specific and mention above or below normal snowfall?

Rain & Snow over the Great Lakes. How specific. You might as well write "Increasing daylight hours."
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 01, 2020, 07:17:32 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 01, 2020, 07:27:25 PM
Well all these seasonal predictions have been absolutely wrong for the past 3-4 years, so I’m expecting a banner winter. 12”+ IMBY.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: NashRugger on October 02, 2020, 09:52:08 PM
Accuweather's winter forecast.

(Attachment Link)
"Snow at times" for part of the Upper Midwest, how groundbreaking.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 03, 2020, 09:39:39 AM
Accuweather issued a forecast that didn't say record warm or record cold so that is something.   

By their sakes that is a pretty benign forecast.  I will be out with my final outlook but note I haven't been close to right since 2017-18.  I was okay on 2016-17 but I bombed 2015-16 and the last two winters. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2020, 10:49:42 AM
Accuweather issued a forecast that didn't say record warm or record cold so that is something.   

By their sakes that is a pretty benign forecast.  I will be out with my final outlook but note I haven't been close to right since 2017-18.  I was okay on 2016-17 but I bombed 2015-16 and the last two winters.
i am going with 98 99 winter ... seems like each week lately Niña is spiking upwards
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 03, 2020, 11:09:52 AM
"Snow at times" for part of the Upper Midwest, how groundbreaking.  ::coffee::

I know, I made fun of this in my post above
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 03, 2020, 12:21:57 PM
i am going with 98 99 winter ... seems like each week lately Niña is spiking upwards

98-99 is a solid secondary analog, but this La-Nina probably won't be quite as strong and we aren't coming off of a super El-Nino in the year before.  2005-06 and 2017-18 are probably better ones.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 04, 2020, 10:07:19 AM
The offical and final outlook.  I would have done this a little later but I will be crazy busy in the late October/November timeframe and probably wouldn't have extra time to do it. 

Overall I think we are heading for yet another warmer than average winter.  One thing that I think will be different this time around due to the ENSO signal and the fact it is 2020 so why not is the potential for an actual cold December with winter chances. Colder air in Canada and Siberia may allow us to build an early cold-air reservoir that we could use for a cold December. 

After that though some features that aren't going to be favorable include another year of crappy MJO due to warmth in the Indian Ocean, a La-Nina that tends to strengthen both the SW and SE Ridges as the winter goes on, and the constant struggle to find a -NAO/-AO.  There is also a signal that the dreaded Gulf of Alaska low pressure system which is what is driving the upcoming warmth towards the middle of this month will make frequent appearances.     

[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]

[attachimg=3]

[attachimg=4]

[attachimg=5]

[attachimg=6]

Overall there is some hope for some winter on the front-end, but the 2nd half of winter and probably even into March looks to feature more severe thunderstorm/tornado chances than winter chances.  If our December pattern doesn't verify and we don't score before January 20th then it will be time to punt this winter and head into spring.   

Outlook for Memphis:
Dec: -2.0
Jan: +0.4
Feb: +9.5
Snowfall: 4.1 inches

Outlook for Nashville:
Dec: -1.9
Jan: +0.9
Feb: +9.9
Snowfall: 4.9 inches

Outlook for Knoxville:
Dec: -1.5
Jan: +1.5
Feb: +9.0
Snowfall: 4.9 inches

Outlook for Bowling Green:
Dec: -2.1
Jan: +0.5
Feb: +9.5
Snowfall: 7.0 inches

Outlook for Chattanogga:
Dec: -1.6
Jan: +1.5
Feb: +9.1
Snowfall: 1.5 inches

I also predict at least one severe weather event in late January/February across our area that would at least verify a Moderate Risk (it doesn't have to be an offical Moderate Risk day either as we have had a lot of Oh! Crap Slight and Enhanced Risk days recently) either by wind or tornado.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 04, 2020, 12:35:49 PM
The offical and final outlook.  I would have done this a little later but I will be crazy busy in the late October/November timeframe and probably wouldn't have extra time to do it. 

Overall I think we are heading for yet another warmer than average winter.  One thing that I think will be different this time around due to the ENSO signal and the fact it is 2020 so why not is the potential for an actual cold December with winter chances. Colder air in Canada and Siberia may allow us to build an early cold-air reservoir that we could use for a cold December. 

After that though some features that aren't going to be favorable include another year of crappy MJO due to warmth in the Indian Ocean, a La-Nina that tends to strengthen both the SW and SE Ridges as the winter goes on, and the constant struggle to find a -NAO/-AO.  There is also a signal that the dreaded Gulf of Alaska low pressure system which is what is driving the upcoming warmth towards the middle of this month will make frequent appearances.     

(Attachment Link)

(Attachment Link)

(Attachment Link)

(Attachment Link)

(Attachment Link)

(Attachment Link)

Overall there is some hope for some winter on the front-end, but the 2nd half of winter and probably even into March looks to feature more severe thunderstorm/tornado chances than winter chances.  If our December pattern doesn't verify and we don't score before January 20th then it will be time to punt this winter and head into spring.   

Outlook for Memphis:
Dec: -2.0
Jan: +0.4
Feb: +9.5
Snowfall: 4.1 inches

Outlook for Nashville:
Dec: -1.9
Jan: +0.9
Feb: +9.9
Snowfall: 4.9 inches

Outlook for Knoxville:
Dec: -1.5
Jan: +1.5
Feb: +9.0
Snowfall: 4.9 inches

Outlook for Bowling Green:
Dec: -2.1
Jan: +0.5
Feb: +9.5
Snowfall: 7.0 inches

Outlook for Chattanogga:
Dec: -1.6
Jan: +1.5
Feb: +9.1
Snowfall: 1.5 inches

I also predict at least one severe weather event in late January/February across our area that would at least verify a Moderate Risk (it doesn't have to be an offical Moderate Risk day either as we have had a lot of Oh! Crap Slight and Enhanced Risk days recently) either by wind or tornado.
appreciate your thoughts steven, seem to be right on,,, but I would cut the total of snowfall for each describing city you mentioned in half... go with it then.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: bugalou on October 07, 2020, 09:20:35 AM
One commonality I am seeing in these forcasts is western TN being on the edges of above normal and below normal temps.  That makes me think a SE ridge being present in some for and arctic cold fronts are going to get hung up on the west end of the state.  Three words - Ice Ice Baby

(https://i.imgur.com/Wu15Lqq.png)

(word to  your mother  ::shaking_finger::  ::rofl:: )
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 07, 2020, 10:50:10 AM
One commonality I am seeing in these forcasts is western TN being on the edges of above normal and below normal temps.  The makes me think a SE ridge being present in some for and arctic cold fronts are going to get hung up on the west end of the state.  Three words - Ice Ice Baby

(https://i.imgur.com/Wu15Lqq.png)

(word to  your mother  ::shaking_finger::  ::rofl:: )
ice and severe wx potential will be two big things watch ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2020, 12:23:14 PM
It has been awhile since the I-44 corrdior in Missouri was hit by an ice storm I think that comes to an end this winter.

Could there be an additional threat further southeast that would depend on the SE ridging at the time. 

Lets not forget that the 2nd worst ice storm in the past 50 years for Tennessee occurred in a much warmer than average La-Nina winter.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 07, 2020, 04:39:58 PM
One of my predictions for the winter is we will see a statewide ice storm for the first time since 2015
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 08, 2020, 11:03:02 AM
[attachimg=1]

X means unfavorable for sustained cold and a check mark means favorable.   

Some of these are starting to become trends as we head further into the cool season.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 08, 2020, 11:07:28 AM
1954, 1988, 2007, and 2008 are starting to appear on this analog pattern list a lot. 

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: cgauxknox on October 08, 2020, 12:38:17 PM
With all the talk here about ice it's probably time to tune up my generator and gather some more firewood for this year. I was a student at UT when Knoxville got the one in '96 and the university actually closed for multiple days. Much of the city was without power for days and while campus never lost power it was still a strange stretch of days. We certainly don't need one of those again, but 2020 being 2020 we'll probably be iced in without power for Christmas...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: bugalou on October 08, 2020, 05:09:06 PM
All the progress models have made are great and credit to the people who made them happen and get better.

That said, I'd give up my left [RADIO EDIT] for a surprise winter storm that over produces this year.  It's been so long since we had something like this happen here near Memphis.  Last I can remember here was NYE 2000 going into 2001 when we got 4"-6" from a northern stream short wave that greatly over produced.  It had been cold all December too so it stuck instantly even on the roads.

Also FWIW, if I remember correctly the first winter after I moved from southern NJ back home here, the city I lived at up there got a surprise 2'+ storm and I was so mad.  One of my co workers there measured 31 inches of snow in his yard.  Now keep in mind where I lived got more snow chances than Memphis on average, but the actual amounts were not great due to proximity to the ocean, the biggest snow storm I witnessed while living there was around 8".  We had some heart breaking Miller B setups too where 1'+ was proded that ended in literal dustings.  ::bangingheadintowall::

I don't need 30"+ but" a good 5"+ event without a week of model chasing anxiety would be so nice.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clay on October 11, 2020, 05:33:51 PM
Interesting writeup by the WaPo on the winter of '59-'60. Knoxville logged 57, yes you read that correctly, 57" of snow that season; Nashville with a mere 38". Obviously the modern day arctic is far too warm to support sustained cold air of that magnitude at this latitude but in the grand scheme of long term climatology, it's hard to believe that happened only 60 years ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/22/sixty-years-ago-after-gentle-start-winter-stormed-back-south/
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 11, 2020, 06:56:43 PM
Interesting writeup by the WaPo on the winter of '59-'60. Knoxville logged 57, yes you read that correctly, 57" of snow that season; Nashville with a mere 38". Obviously the modern day arctic is far too warm to support sustained cold air of that magnitude at this latitude but in the grand scheme of long term climatology, it's hard to believe that happened only 60 years ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/22/sixty-years-ago-after-gentle-start-winter-stormed-back-south/

In the last 15 years we've had a few events that were a few degrees away from being major events. I think it is just a luck thing combined with us being in a warmer period this reducing our luck even more.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 11, 2020, 07:33:05 PM
The negative is that we are warmer and with this warmer state the I-40 corridor has become the I-20 corridor of the 1920s to mid-1990s and the I-40 corridor of that time is now I-64 if not even I-70 in places.   

The positive is that with increased moisture content although our winter storms have been reduced the ones that do form would be more likely to become warning type events and therefore more significant. 

Luck plays a role as well just ask Memphis to Jackson to Nashville to Lebanon back in 2013-14 or Southeast Missouri during the winters of 2014-15 and 2015-16.     
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 11, 2020, 08:18:35 PM
The negative is that we are warmer and with this warmer state the I-40 corridor has become the I-20 corridor of the 1920s to mid-1990s and the I-40 corridor of that time is now I-64 if not even I-70 in places.   

The positive is that with increased moisture content although our winter storms have been reduced the ones that do form would be more likely to become warning type events and therefore more significant. 

Luck plays a role as well just ask Memphis to Jackson to Nashville to Lebanon back in 2013-14 or Southeast Missouri during the winters of 2014-15 and 2015-16.   
within the next 10 years, i40 will become i10, sad but true
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JHart on October 12, 2020, 09:20:04 AM
within the next 10 years, i40 will become i10, sad but true
Well, at least I won't have to keep dragging my forty-year-old hibiscus trees into the garage every October.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Beth on October 12, 2020, 10:37:39 AM
Well, at least I won't have to keep dragging my forty-year-old hibiscus trees into the garage every October.
We have at 40 plants we have bring into our greenhouse. At least we have a golf cart that the back seat lays down for a place to haul them in.  I have a rubber tree that is 40 yrs old. We have to trim all the plants back to get them all in.  But it is a nice place to sit in the winter with our hibiscus and other flowers that bloom. 😊
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 12, 2020, 04:52:17 PM
Most of ya’ll seem to forget that late December 2017 through late January 2018 was cold as a well diggers butt! I honestly don’t wish to see it that cold for that long again for some time. The duck hunting sure was great.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on October 13, 2020, 07:38:27 AM
Was that the year where it was almost 0 degrees on New Years?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on October 13, 2020, 08:08:50 AM
Most of ya’ll seem to forget that late December 2017 through late January 2018 was cold as a well diggers butt! I honestly don’t wish to see it that cold for that long again for some time. The duck hunting sure was great.

Good point. I think for many, as with other recent cold shots, it failed to produce significant snowfall. Therefore, it gets forgotten or labeled as annoying and wasted cold.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 13, 2020, 08:21:19 AM
Good point. I think for many, as with other recent cold shots, it failed to produce significant snowfall. Therefore, it gets forgotten or labeled as annoying and wasted cold.

Could be, here in NW TN we scored big time on snow with that one.  Best I remember we missed about 2 weeks straight of school (I teach).
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 13, 2020, 11:04:38 AM
Scored on that one also. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 13, 2020, 11:21:25 AM
Good point. I think for many, as with other recent cold shots, it failed to produce significant snowfall. Therefore, it gets forgotten or labeled as annoying and wasted cold.

It was VERY cold, new years eve was frigid!!!!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 13, 2020, 11:52:35 AM
Scored on that one also. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
got close to 4 inches snow ⛄️ that one myself
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 13, 2020, 08:56:12 PM
If you like winter.  Don’t look at latest euro weeklies long ranger...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 14, 2020, 11:12:42 AM
If you like winter.  Don’t look at latest euro weeklies long ranger...

The last time it showed a cold LR forecast in the weeklies was Fall of 2015. We all know how that turned out. The Euro- even its ops model- has a hard time with any cold air past 7 days.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 14, 2020, 11:52:49 AM
The last time it showed a cold LR forecast in the weeklies was Fall of 2015. We all know how that turned out. The Euro- even its ops model- has a hard time with any cold air past 7 days.

Yep I wouldn't put any stock in any of them.  Watch the 15 day forecast and even it can be way wrong.  Put 10 different winter scenarios on a slip of paper and draw them out of a hat and you'll have about as good of odds as predicting what the winter weather will be.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 14, 2020, 03:29:07 PM
Good point. I think for many, as with other recent cold shots, it failed to produce significant snowfall. Therefore, it gets forgotten or labeled as annoying and wasted cold.
Yep. Cold and bone dry here. I set my front yard on fire with my new year's eve fireworks that year. It was about 17 degrees and very windy.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 14, 2020, 08:14:17 PM
If you like winter.  Don’t look at latest euro weeklies long ranger...

Crap, all hope is lost now.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 14, 2020, 09:01:05 PM
Crap, all hope is lost now.
yep.... never dismiss the euro .
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 15, 2020, 06:32:51 AM
yep.... never dismiss the euro .

Let's cancel winter. I'm already looking forward to spring.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2020, 08:42:05 AM
Let's cancel winter. I'm already looking forward to spring.

I'm not even tarping my pool this winter, we'll be swimming in January. Thanks, Euro.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 15, 2020, 08:43:26 AM
yep.... never dismiss the euro .
yep.... never dismiss the euro .
yep.... never dismiss the euro .

I assume you actually mean the euro seasonals-  vs the weeklies. I do give credence to the the euro operational but anyone should be skeptical of seasonal and weeklies. They’re bleak at best and always point to above normal temps after 2 weeks.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on October 15, 2020, 09:34:55 AM
I like the StormNine charts on page 6 and page 5. Just getting caught up. Even if December is not wall to wall cold, it's our best chance at some winter action. Blowtorch February is actually reasonable too. Note that it only takes one just right bowling ball to save a season though.

Looking to spring, I confess I also like severe wx. Bruce you have a friend here, lol! Back to that in a minute. First, some thoughts on Easter 2020.

I hate tornadoes in town. My heart broke when a Chattanooga 4-year old succumbed to his critical tornado injuries last spring. I'm a dad too and I can't imagine. For about 10 days (and we had two more potential set-ups) I was not into it at all. I kept watching radar and surface charts, praying the boundary stays south. It did both times.

However two weeks later the severe wx bug was back. One Thursday I was super tentative, still not ready. Then on a Saturday we had a low-top day with great visibility. I went out. Saw nothing, but it just felt good to get my mind back. Never went to the Plains due to a poor May pattern and covid concerns. However that's usually a thing for me.

So, La Nina? Peer reviewed research consensus is little correlation. However loosening the statistical requirements, I think we have all seen active La Nina years. They can also be active in transition. Still cool Central Pac. Warm right near South America. Trans Nino Index +TNI is one way to measure that. Could it happen this year? Perhaps.

So I feel apprehension in high risk days or when cities are impacted. However I do chase and I enjoy thunderstorms. Prefer a late May subtle ENH out on the Plains over MDT Dixie Alley.

VERY IMPORTANT: Never look at your phone while driving. Best to chase in pairs when the driver ONLY drives. If solo I pull all the way over and stop to look at charts. No exceptions!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: mamMATTus on October 15, 2020, 12:04:14 PM
I'm just not feeling a warm winter overall. I think it will be average temps and rainfall.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2020, 02:54:26 PM
Noaa released their winter forecast today ... warmer than average overall for us...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: joemomma on October 16, 2020, 08:20:05 AM
I have zero faith in any long term outlooks at this point.  You can watch trends/patterns/analogues, but mother nature has a way of throwing a wrench in the works more often than not.  I don't put much stock in anything more than a week out.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 16, 2020, 10:46:03 AM
I have zero faith in any long term outlooks at this point.  You can watch trends/patterns/analogues, but mother nature has a way of throwing a wrench in the works more often than not.  I don't put much stock in anything more than a week out.

Ding Ding Ding, we have a winner!  Nobody has a clue out past 15 days!  Might get be right a small % of time but that is it.  It is fun to try and guess what might happen but that is all it is.  Had a meteorology professor in college tell us that if someone thinks they know what will happen a season in advance, they are full of $hitt lol.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 16, 2020, 12:19:41 PM
Ding Ding Ding, we have a winner!  Nobody has a clue out past 15 days!  Might get be right a small % of time but that is it.  It is fun to try and guess what might happen but that is all it is.  Had a meteorology professor in college tell us that if someone thinks they know what will happen a season in advance, they are full of $hitt lol.
agree with u in  most of this u said... but one thing u can take to the bank is the colder winters we had seen 70s 80 s at times are gone, to much climate change weather we believe it or not. I am just glad I got to enjoy them during my childhood and younger days :D
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on October 16, 2020, 03:20:18 PM
When they update the Normals it'll be harder. For another several months, just always go above normal. Happy Weekend Y'all!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2020, 12:15:56 PM
Snowpack is building pretty well in Siberia
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 18, 2020, 01:19:23 PM
agree with u in  most of this u said... but one thing u can take to the bank is the colder winters we had seen 70s 80 s at times are gone, to much climate change weather we believe it or not. I am just glad I got to enjoy them during my childhood and younger days :D
You say that as fact but you don't know now more than me what the climate has in store. The climate has been changing since God made the world, it can change on a dime. And no we don't know how much man has affected it or not, the climate has a way of overcoming and healing itself. I don't know and you don't really know but we all got our opinions. You can go back and find warm stretches hundreds of years ago and further and cold always come back and I suspect it will again. Even scientist do not agree, only time will tell nobody knows for certain.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 18, 2020, 03:32:39 PM
You say that as fact but you don't know now more than me what the climate has in store. The climate has been changing since God made the world, it can change on a dime. And no we don't know how much man has affected it or not, the climate has a way of overcoming and healing itself. I don't know and you don't really know but we all got our opinions. You can go back and find warm stretches hundreds of years ago and further and cold always come back and I suspect it will again. Even scientist do not agree, only time will tell nobody knows for certain.
just interesting how temps average keeps moving up. Annually... hope I am wrong
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 18, 2020, 05:07:41 PM
Outside of Washington State my outlook and the NOAA outlook are very similar.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on October 18, 2020, 05:15:53 PM
Wait, we are still trying to forecast past 72hours for Winter. I stopped putting any faith in a Winter Outlook for the TN area... A majority of the snowfall that we get in this state is localized and seasonal averages can be had in a day. Fun to watch, but not worth the investment anymore.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 18, 2020, 05:25:14 PM
Wait, we are still trying to forecast past 72hours for Winter. I stopped putting any faith in a Winter Outlook for the TN area... A majority of the snowfall that we get in this state is localized and seasonal averages can be had in a day. Fun to watch, but not worth the investment anymore.
It is very tough to get a statewide hit for a snowstorm, it has happened but not lately for sure. One reason though is our state is long and systems cut alot, we are like a 4 way intersection it seems. I would love to see a good old fashioned southern slider, west to east straight across. I remember a good one in 85. Seems like we used to get them sliders more in the 70's and 80's.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 18, 2020, 05:35:30 PM
just interesting how temps average keeps moving up. Annually... hope I am wrong
No doubt we have been in a warmer period there is no doubt about that. I just remember in the 60's and 70's when we were in cold periods and many said ice age is coming. I go back and look at records and the temp swings have went back and forth alot through history. Not to say you might be on to something, but at the same time I am not buying anything. Mother nature has made many major moves since the earth has been here and I just have my doubts that scientist truly know what's around the corner in the next 20-30 years. I guess that's why we like weather especially here in Tennessee, it's tough to get snow but some years we can score and now and then we can score big, at least parts of the state can. It is hard to get the entire state involved at once but that again can happen. If we got snow all the time like up north our board probably wouldn't be as exciting. But we do need a good snow this year the last 2 years has been terrible for the entire state. We haven't had a half inch snow in the last 2 years here, a skimmer of ice in november of 18 and a few flurries last year that skimmed the ground in only spots. We need a 1-2 inch snow anyway, hopefully we will score before January this year. It looks like it will be tough after mid jan, of course mother nature can always change course. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 18, 2020, 06:52:55 PM
I would also say the stronger the Nina the slightly better we chance we have at having a March Hail-Mary. 

I would say Thanksgiving to Christmas and early to mid March are the better windows for snow.  I would also watch for an ice storm threat at anytime along the I-44 corridor and perhaps as far southeast as NW TN and West KY.  2021 could be a rather rough year for severe weather if the Central USA can avoid drought.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on October 19, 2020, 08:27:27 AM
Wait, we are still trying to forecast past 24 hours for Winter.

Fixed it for you, at least for western and middle TN. East gets 36 hours.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on October 19, 2020, 11:46:40 AM
1. I still favor a warmer than normal winter, especially the actual Tennessee Valley. Mid South could do better with cold air in place. Warm North Pac does favor a little cold air intrusion. However La Nina screams SER.

2. Climate change is observed, regardless of cause. We don't have to debate the climate models, but I will. Weekly forecasting is awful because it's too granular for the state of the art of the science. Monthly is not much better, especially second month. So many epic busts. However seasonal forecasting can add value over normals. Think years with a good ENSO signal and no unusual AO against it. Why does seasonal forecasting add more economic value than weekly or monthly? Simple. Seasonal does not attempt to get more granular than the state of the art of the science. Ten year climate forecast is far from granular, and quite frankly achievable.

So far climate models from 10-15 years ago nailed the higher impacts north and west. Minimal impacts Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley were forecast, and verified. These facts can be checked on CPC websites and looking at old academic journals. NO PEER REVIEWED journals forecast another ice age in the 1970s - just some media. Back 100 years ago British scientists first hypothesized Carbon related climate change. Peer reviewed science has always been to the warm side. In the 1980s and 1990s more scientists joined. By 2018 it was obvious. Despite two very weak solar cycles, temps and carbon kept climbing in lock-step without solar. That kind of divergence on a stock chart means something. Ditto here!

Do not @ me or quote me on this settled science on a weather forum. I will NOT answer. Good people can debate policy. Green New Deal? Skinny / Biden version? Nothing since India and China keep emitting? Oh but that has to be Off Topic, where I don't venture except for sports. Guess don't @ or quote me there either.

3. Spring is going to be stormy!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on October 19, 2020, 01:25:27 PM
nrgJeff- you sound like you have battle scars on that issue, lol. Don't worry- I for one won't be @'ing you on it.  :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 01:53:49 PM
1. I still favor a warmer than normal winter, especially the actual Tennessee Valley. Mid South could do better with cold air in place. Warm North Pac does favor a little cold air intrusion. However La Nina screams SER.

2. Climate change is observed, regardless of cause. We don't have to debate the climate models, but I will. Weekly forecasting is awful because it's too granular for the state of the art of the science. Monthly is not much better, especially second month. So many epic busts. However seasonal forecasting can add value over normals. Think years with a good ENSO signal and no unusual AO against it. Why does seasonal forecasting add more economic value than weekly or monthly? Simple. Seasonal does not attempt to get more granular than the state of the art of the science. Ten year climate forecast is far from granular, and quite frankly achievable.

So far climate models from 10-15 years ago nailed the higher impacts north and west. Minimal impacts Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley were forecast, and verified. These facts can be checked on CPC websites and looking at old academic journals. NO PEER REVIEWED journals forecast another ice age in the 1970s - just some media. Back 100 years ago British scientists first hypothesized Carbon related climate change. Peer reviewed science has always been to the warm side. In the 1980s and 1990s more scientists joined. By 2018 it was obvious. Despite two very weak solar cycles, temps and carbon kept climbing in lock-step without solar. That kind of divergence on a stock chart means something. Ditto here!

Do not @ me or quote me on this settled science on a weather forum. I will NOT answer. Good people can debate policy. Green New Deal? Skinny / Biden version? Nothing since India and China keep emitting? Oh but that has to be Off Topic, where I don't venture except for sports. Guess don't @ or quote me there either.

3. Spring is going to be stormy!

I'll @ you on this, there really isn't such a thing as settled science. Especially in a highly complex field with multiple variables, many still unknown, like meteorology. We've tried to simplify this complex system down to one variable, CO2, and call it settled. It's the height of hubris.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on October 19, 2020, 02:59:16 PM
Scientific theory is never settled 100%. Only Laws of Science are. Theory can change. Great example is micro-bursts. They laughed at Dr. Ted Fujita. Now every airport has a wind shear detection system.

However the dominant drivers of climate change are well understood. The science of greenhouse gasses is relatively simple compared to say complex micro-scale thunderstorm systems and tornadogenesis. The science of greenhouse gasses is general, not specific, which also adds much confidence.

I have an atmospheric science degree and am well versed in climate because I'm in the energy sector. Actually I have rarely debated the topic. I would not say I have battle scars. Just laying out my understanding since I'm still pretty new to the forum. However I've been a professional meteorologist for 25 years.

I'll @ you on this, there really isn't such a thing as settled science. Especially in a highly complex field with multiple variables, many still unknown, like meteorology. We've tried to simplify this complex system down to one variable, CO2, and call it settled. It's the height of hubris.

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 19, 2020, 03:06:08 PM
Hey, guy with a degree in this field who does this for a living, I'm going to @ you!

- Sincerely, schneitzeit (guy w/o a Bachelor's and no experience in your field)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 03:12:29 PM
However the dominant drivers of climate change are well understood.

I would completely disagree with that statement. Again, hubris.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 03:17:14 PM
Hey, guy with a degree in this field who does this for a living, I'm going to @ you!

- Sincerely, schneitzeit (guy w/o a Bachelor's and no experience in your field)

Check out the food the majority of hospitals feed Type 2 diabetics. But don't question it, they know all. Just keep eating it, trusting them and watch your condition continue to deteriorate.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on October 19, 2020, 03:18:17 PM
Please elaborate.
I would completely disagree with that statement. Again, hubris.

I have explained my positions with clear reasoning, solid logic, and comparisons to simply. All you have is crying, hubris.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 03:23:04 PM
Please elaborate.
I have explained my positions with clear reasoning and comparisons to other fields. All you have is crying, hubris.

Nah, I'm not opening that can of worms. I'll just say I disagree. People can look at the ridiculous climate models and judge for themselves. I don't deny we are warming, I deny we know why we are warming. Just for the record.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 19, 2020, 03:24:20 PM
Check out the food the majority of hospitals feed Type 2 diabetics. But don't question it, they know all. Just keep eating it, trusting them and watch your condition continue to deteriorate.

What in the heck does this have to do with the subject at hand? Comparing dietetics to meteorology is apples to oranges.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 19, 2020, 03:30:11 PM
The point in my post is I'm not going to argue with a qualified person in that field if I am not qualified. Snowdog, what are your qualifications? Do you have relevant experience that can effectively defend your claim?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 04:15:45 PM
The point in my post is I'm not going to argue with a qualified person in that field if I am not qualified. Snowdog, what are your qualifications? Do you have relevant experience that can effectively defend your claim?

80 years ago, Ancel Keys simplified heart disease to one metric. Cholesterol. In Climate Science, CO2 is the modern day version of Cholesterol and it is just as flawed as Keys hypothesis.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on October 19, 2020, 04:24:10 PM
Hey we all agree on one thing. It's so ironic that hospitals serve so much fried and junk food.

Anyway the Euro weeklies didn't change much. Going with the CFS and cold late next week, about Halloween. One week only makes sense. Indian Ocean and West Pac are still in a warm phase looking at the MJO. Also that tropical system crossing the Phils is heading to Vietnam, so not a Japan recurve situation this time. A little cold and then a mostly warmer than normal November perhaps.

Looking ahead, and hoping, maybe a change in the background state toward Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 04:29:58 PM
"Despite two very weak solar cycles, temps and carbon kept climbing in lock-step without solar."

This is a very problematic statement. There is MUCH more involved with solar mechanics besides solar cycles. To throw out solar, to me, is the wrong conclusion. Revisiting TSI assumptions or looking at other possible pathways would seem to be the more appropriate response.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 19, 2020, 04:44:22 PM
I know so little about the effects of solar mechanics on climate. That's something I need to improve on.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Drifter49 on October 19, 2020, 05:11:40 PM
Whew! That was a lot to absorb.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 20, 2020, 07:26:33 AM
I know so little about the effects of solar mechanics on climate. That's something I need to improve on.

That is something the industry in general needs to improve on. Even their assumptions on TSI look to be wrong. (hint: look at major solar events, TSI goes down, not up. Ruh Roh. So all that energy input gets incorrectly put on the wrong side of the ledger and that is just one example) This is why I picked up on how flippantly Jeff shrugged off solar. It's common in his profession. It's hubris, plain and simple. It's one of many reasons why climate models continue to vastly overstate the effect of CO2.

There looks to be a canary in the coal mine currently. With most of the industrialized world shutdown or partially shutdown for at least half the year this year, what effect do you think that has had on temp? Interesting study just came a few weeks ago on it.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 23, 2020, 08:08:57 AM
was anybody around for the 1963/64 new years snow storm in mid Tennessee?

8-15 inches was commonplace in that storm total especially south of I-40...how did that one happen ? I am curious as I know a lot of your are much smarter than me on specifics :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 23, 2020, 08:10:28 AM
was anybody around for the 1963/64 new years snow storm in mid Tennessee?

8-15 inches was commonplace in that storm total especially south of I-40...how did that one happen ? I am curious as I know a lot of your are much smarter than me on specifics :)
Lol maybe Bruce? No one else I assume. I wish we had some old enough to discuss the 1951 ice and snowstorm that crippled Memphis and Nashville.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 23, 2020, 08:32:21 AM
Lol maybe Bruce? No one else I assume. I wish we had some old enough to discuss the 1951 ice and snowstorm that crippled Memphis and Nashville.
i was around ... but still crawling mostly ... lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on October 23, 2020, 09:10:01 AM
was anybody around for the 1963/64 new years snow storm in mid Tennessee?

8-15 inches was commonplace in that storm total especially south of I-40...how did that one happen ? I am curious as I know a lot of your are much smarter than me on specifics :)

HUN has a good writeup on it:

https://www.weather.gov/hun/hunsur_1963-12-31

Quote
After a cold air mass pushed into the southern Gulf on December 29th , cold air advection filtered around high pressure in the Midwest and into the Deep South. The upper level trough amplified and on December 30, 1963, a wave developed on a front in the central Gulf. The frontal wave matured and moved northeast into northern Florida on the 31st. At this time, the upper level trough developed two closed lows along the northern Gulf coast. Most of the snow fell in Huntsville between noon and midnight on the 31st as the surface low moved across northern Florida. As the low made its way up the Eastern seaboard, snow from wrap-around moisture continued to fall through the morning hours of January 1, 1964.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 23, 2020, 09:32:24 AM
Man, good writeup. I really like the hourly breakdown citing light snow most hours. How much snow did they get back then if they had 17" total in Huntsville and the guy recording hourlies is looking out like...yeah, looks like light snow.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 23, 2020, 09:44:25 AM
Man, good writeup. I really like the hourly breakdown citing light snow most hours. How much snow did they get back then if they had 17" total in Huntsville and the guy recording hourlies is looking out like...yeah, looks like light snow.

I thought the same thing...LOL light snow and you end up with 17 inches
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on October 23, 2020, 09:46:51 AM
Years ago, before the text-to-voice bots took NOAA weather radio, one of the older guys at OHX (Bobby Boyd, I think) gave a discussion of the NYE/D snowstorm of '63/'64. I recorded it (on cassette tape probably... this would have been in the 1990s).

I wish I still had it. Being the weird kid I was, I listened to that over and over again, and can actually remember parts of it verbatim, probably not the whole thing. But, here were parts of it, particularly the beginning of it that I think I can remember word for word...

"It had been a cold day, with a high only 30 degrees in Nashville. Cirrus clouds filled the afternoon sky. And, by sunset, low clouds had begun to move in..."

He went on to say that light snow began falling by 7:00 PM. By later that evening, moderate snow and sleet began falling, and he gave temperatures, wind speed and direction. By some time New Years morning, when it tapered off, 13" of snow had fallen in Nashville, with depth packed down to 9" or 10".

Wish I had that recording. The way NWS offices archive text, maybe it can be found out on the internet somewhere.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 23, 2020, 09:47:11 AM
anybody know where the ohx article is for the Jan 2010 storm....it was the biggest snow of my lifetime in lewis county and I cannot find the article....I measured up to 9 inches in my yard with a little freezing rain mixed in, we were shut down for 4 days

or any article for that matter for middle Tennessee?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on October 23, 2020, 10:08:03 AM
Here's a writeup on the event from OHX: https://www.weather.gov/ohx/newyearsday1964snowstorm (https://www.weather.gov/ohx/newyearsday1964snowstorm)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 23, 2020, 10:50:11 AM
Years ago, before the text-to-voice bots took NOAA weather radio, one of the older guys at OHX (Bobby Boyd, I think) gave a discussion of the NYE/D snowstorm of '63/'64. I recorded it (on cassette tape probably... this would have been in the 1990s).

I wish I still had it. Being the weird kid I was, I listened to that over and over again, and can actually remember parts of it verbatim, probably not the whole thing. But, here were parts of it, particularly the beginning of it that I think I can remember word for word...

"It had been a cold day, with a high only 30 degrees in Nashville. Cirrus clouds filled the afternoon sky. And, by sunset, low clouds had begun to move in..."

He went on to say that light snow began falling by 7:00 PM. By later that evening, moderate snow and sleet began falling, and he gave temperatures, wind speed and direction. By some time New Years morning, when it tapered off, 13" of snow had fallen in Nashville, with depth packed down to 9" or 10".

Wish I had that recording. The way NWS offices archive text, maybe it can be found out on the internet somewhere.

Too bad, I'd like to hear that. Very interesting, thanks for sharing. Also interesting is how sleet was mixing in. Goes to show how a degree here or there is all the difference between a historic event and rain/sleet mix. As we are in a warmer regime now, we see quite a few of these near misses of course almost always breaking our heart.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 23, 2020, 12:36:18 PM
Too bad, I'd like to hear that. Very interesting, thanks for sharing. Also interesting is how sleet was mixing in. Goes to show how a degree here or there is all the difference between a historic event and rain/sleet mix. As we are in a warmer regime now, we see quite a few of these near misses of course almost always breaking our heart.

Yep. We’ll flip back cold again sometime. Some of us may get to enjoy it while others of us are dead maybe. Or maybe we are all dead when that happens, who knows.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 23, 2020, 12:45:11 PM
I just find it funny that I can't find an ohx recap of one of the most widespread snowstorms ( jan 2010) in the past 20 years
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 23, 2020, 01:33:56 PM
I just find it funny that I can't find an ohx recap of one of the most widespread snowstorms ( jan 2010) in the past 20 years
we got 9 inches that day  January 29th 2010 all fell during day time too
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 23, 2020, 01:50:18 PM
we got 9 inches that day  January 29th 2010 all fell during day time too

Didnt you guys get dumped on not long after that with a ULL?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 23, 2020, 01:52:27 PM
anybody know where the ohx article is for the Jan 2010 storm....it was the biggest snow of my lifetime in lewis county and I cannot find the article....I measured up to 9 inches in my yard with a little freezing rain mixed in, we were shut down for 4 days

or any article for that matter for middle Tennessee?
I feel like this one is barely ever mentioned. It was a huge bust for MRX. At one point Hamilton county was the only county in their entire CWA without a winter storm warning, and at that time we already had 2-3" on the ground. Dynamic cooling saved us from a 33 degree rain. I had to drive to Greenville SC during that storm. It also busted for them, but the opposite way. GSP called for 8-12". They actually got 0.75" ZR and a half inch of sleet. Wasn't fun to drive on.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 23, 2020, 02:13:23 PM
Didnt you guys get dumped on not long after that with a ULL?
That was less than a year earlier on March 1 2009. The 40 corridor between Arlington and Jackson had over a foot with 18 inches reported in parts of Fayette Co.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 23, 2020, 02:33:04 PM
That was less than a year earlier on March 1 2009. The 40 corridor between Arlington and Jackson had over a foot with 18 inches reported in parts of Fayette Co.

If I were to make a Jealous List of storms I missed out on that somewhere else in the State got, that would be #1. I remember you guys updating the thread back then, the pics, the videos...it was killing me. Just hammer time. You guys also had some thunder snow with that didn't you?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on October 23, 2020, 02:51:52 PM
For some of us 2009, 2010, and 2011 was a good run. Significant snows each year, some pretty good cold, and even a Christmas night snowfall in 2010. Seems like a long time ago.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 23, 2020, 02:58:13 PM
Lol maybe Bruce? No one else I assume. I wish we had some old enough to discuss the 1951 ice and snowstorm that crippled Memphis and Nashville.
My grandparents used to talk about the ice storm of 51. My dad was 7 and he remembers it. It hit clarksville pretty good also. I remember in the 1974 ice storm that hit northern middle tn, I was 10 and there power was out everywhere for several times. My grandparents said the 74 ice storm was the worst since 1951 but that 51 was worse overall and for the midstate as a whole. The individual blades of grass were coated in ice in the 74 storm. Trees were down everywhere and I remember how the gravel in the driveway was under clear ice, you could see the rocks up under ice and it was super slick. My dad was in the hospital in nashville at the time in 74 and you could see the ice cutoff at Germantown hill, it was spectacular looking at the ice cut off the line halfway down the hill going into nashville was so defined, it was awesome looking. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 23, 2020, 04:16:00 PM
we got 9 inches that day  January 29th 2010 all fell during day time too

I remember here in lewis county it started around 9:30 HEAVY snow for 2 hours, in two hours I had 3.5 inches of snow, then moderate until about 5 pm with about 9 inches then a little freezing rain mixed in....if not for that we would have easily had a foot here and possibly more....that was the 412 corridors dream day :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 23, 2020, 04:57:35 PM
That was less than a year earlier on March 1 2009. The 40 corridor between Arlington and Jackson had over a foot with 18 inches reported in parts of Fayette Co.

Heck even my county got around 4 inches out of that system.....was a big surprise

My fav ULL was I think in 2003? I got around 8 inches of surprise snow with that one :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 23, 2020, 05:31:56 PM
I remember here in lewis county it started around 9:30 HEAVY snow for 2 hours, in two hours I had 3.5 inches of snow, then moderate until about 5 pm with about 9 inches then a little freezing rain mixed in....if not for that we would have easily had a foot here and possibly more....that was the 412 corridors dream day :)
yeah that was one my favorite snow systems , mainly cause it all fell during daytime which was like the old fashioned snow ❄️ storms used to get here . Had has a meso for the i 40 corridor that day with heavy snow rates up to 2 inches per hour said
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 23, 2020, 05:35:32 PM
That was less than a year earlier on March 1 2009. The 40 corridor between Arlington and Jackson had over a foot with 18 inches reported in parts of Fayette Co.
i got 13 inches out the ull that storm , now curt I’m not that old buddy lol .  But me being born 62 guess I’m one the older ones ... but I stay young running and going gym a lot . Lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 23, 2020, 07:11:18 PM
Western TN is definitely the sweet spot for winter weather more times than not.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 24, 2020, 10:37:14 AM
Yep. We’ll flip back cold again sometime. Some of us may get to enjoy it while others of us are dead maybe. Or maybe we are all dead when that happens, who knows.

We'll all be long gone by the time that happens. The warming pattern is here to stay due to the positive feedback loop of warming oceans and diminishing sea ice + glaciers. There's not anything in store to grant us a "Little Ice Age" like there was during the 2nd Millennium.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 24, 2020, 11:25:19 AM
We'll all be long gone by the time that happens. The warming pattern is here to stay due to the positive feedback loop of warming oceans and diminishing sea ice + glaciers. There's not anything in store to grant us a "Little Ice Age" like there was during the 2nd Millennium.
plus 1. Bingo
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 24, 2020, 11:39:26 AM
I remember a BIG ice storm in my area it was late 90's that one was fun LOL. it was at least .75 inches thick here i am gonna try to find info on it, it never gets talked about either, we were stuck for days

And i seem to remember it being around the holidays in december
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 24, 2020, 11:57:40 AM
Western TN is definitely the sweet spot for winter weather more times than not.
No way. Northeast TN averages like 3-4x as much annually as Memphis.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 24, 2020, 12:26:29 PM
No way. Northeast TN averages like 3-4x as much annually as Memphis.
No doubt. The higher elevations of East Tennessee especially over 2000 for eek out more snow showers post cold front than anywhere in the state. Most of the state is subject to high end winter storms a few times each decade- just not persistent snow showers during the winter like those elevations. Terrain means everything. The only benefit west has in elevation ironically is low elevation and CAA for Arctic air masses that bleed down from the plains. It’s actually advantageous to drain those air masses and lock them in while they usually get stuck at the Cumberland Plateau.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 24, 2020, 01:37:14 PM
No doubt. The higher elevations of East Tennessee especially over 2000 for eek out more snow showers post cold front than anywhere in the state. Most of the state is subject to high end winter storms a few times each decade- just not persistent snow showers during the winter like those elevations. Terrain means everything. The only benefit west has in elevation ironically is low elevation and CAA for Arctic air masses that bleed down from the plains. It’s actually advantageous to drain those air masses and lock them in while they usually get stuck at the Cumberland Plateau.

Agreed, cookville to crossville area just averages more because they get little 1-2 inch snows a few times per year ..... to me that is just annoyance snow...unless i can get 3-5+ inches of snow in a storm i don't want it
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 24, 2020, 02:09:23 PM
Jamestown on the plateau their all-time average is around 20 inches of snow which is equivalent to the I-70 corridor in IL/IN.  Their 30-year average is probably a decent deal lower than that because they have had some lousy winters here recently especially the last two years and several years in the 2000s. 
 
Not only the elevation but the orographic lift helps them out.
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 24, 2020, 03:23:49 PM
The 2010 /11 La Niña strength and QBO are almost identical. There has been some warming just along the Alaskan pacific coast which might be crucial to having any cold later. SST look more similar to 2017/18 but the QBO was severely negative back then. I don’t think the SST back in the Eastern Indian Ocean are near as offensive as last year. Could be a real roller coaster in these parts for temps the CFS2 more warm although the IRI has cold. Its probably a combination of the 2 which what I think will have some serious temp boundary set ups which could go for or against. One thing I’m confident in is the northern and central plains having a long cold winter. Honestly, we don’t have long sustained cold winters here. They usually hit in a 2 to 4 week window. Doesn’t take much for a “success “ down here.

CFS

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201024/1983544f387957f089d84b3e3dff4e43.jpg)
IRI
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201024/030610b581ef0a41f2d4259b65b68c8d.jpg)





Or I could be completely wrong about all of it.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 24, 2020, 03:43:41 PM
The 2010 /11 La Niña strength and QBO are almost identical. There has been some warming just along the Alaskan pacific coast which might be crucial to having any cold later. SST look more similar to 2017/18 but the QBO was severely negative back then. I don’t think the SST back in the Eastern Indian Ocean are near as offensive as last year. Could be a real roller coaster in these parts for temps the CFS2 more warm although the IRI has cold. Its probably a combination of the 2 which what I think will have some serious temp boundary set ups which could go for or against. One thing I’m confident in is the northern and central plains having a long cold winter. Honestly, we don’t have long sustained cold winters here. They usually hit in a 2 to 4 week window. Doesn’t take much for a “success “ down here.

CFS

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201024/1983544f387957f089d84b3e3dff4e43.jpg)
IRI
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201024/030610b581ef0a41f2d4259b65b68c8d.jpg)





Or I could be completely wrong about all of it.
i definitely take another 2011 severe wx type in spring of 2021.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 24, 2020, 06:27:20 PM
No way. Northeast TN averages like 3-4x as much annually as Memphis.

Lol yea the mountains. They should do better. Memphis is way far south. More NW TN where I am at. We score a lot while y’all cry lol.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 24, 2020, 08:11:19 PM
Lol yea the mountains. They should do better. Memphis is way far south. More NW TN where I am at. We score a lot while y’all cry lol.

Must be all those swamps and Dollar Generals  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Drifter49 on October 24, 2020, 10:09:19 PM
Must be all those swamps and Dollar Generals  ::rofl::
Definitely the dollar general’s


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 25, 2020, 07:30:27 AM
Some models show the La Nina dropping down to -2C which is crazy strong, but then quickly warm us up back to Neutral by early Spring.  It is one of the sharpest drops and sharpest rises I have ever seen in the models.

It should be noted that ENSO models always weaken a El-Nino or La-Nina event a lot quicker in the early Spring than reality.   

If this is true based on what we are seeing than 1998-99 and 2007-08 become top analogs with perhaps a little 1988-89 and 2010-11 flavor.   

Interestingly enough with the exception of making December a bit warmer, it wouldn't change my winter outlook that much at least in KY/TN. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 25, 2020, 08:37:19 AM
Some models show the La Nina dropping down to -2C which is crazy strong, but then quickly warm us up back to Neutral by early Spring.  It is one of the sharpest drops and sharpest rises I have ever seen in the models.

It should be noted that ENSO models always weaken a El-Nino or La-Nina event a lot quicker in the early Spring than reality.   

If this is true based on what we are seeing than 1998-99 and 2007-08 become top analogs with perhaps a little 1988-89 and 2010-11 flavor.   

Interestingly enough with the exception of making December a bit warmer, it wouldn't change my winter outlook that much at least in KY/TN.
that sharp drop off that’s what is going activate us into the severe wx pattern ... chances Are fairly high for a major large scale severe outbreak somewhere Across the south late winter into next spring . Stay tuned
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 25, 2020, 07:17:42 PM
Must be all those swamps and Dollar Generals  ::rofl::

If only the rest of the world were only swamps and dollar generals it would be a much better place!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 26, 2020, 08:07:30 PM
https://youtu.be/YwehzWN4c_g


^^ Estimated daily snow depth from 1950 - 2015
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 26, 2020, 08:13:54 PM
Refresh my memory ( i am living vicariously through past winters) But didn't mid tennessee get 2 or 3 good snow events in Jan-Feb 2011?

I seem to remember getting a few storms that year with 3-5 inches each time wide spread in mid state
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on October 26, 2020, 09:35:20 PM
Refresh my memory ( i am living vicariously through past winters) But didn't mid tennessee get 2 or 3 good snow events in Jan-Feb 2011?

I seem to remember getting a few storms that year with 3-5 inches each time wide spread in mid state
January 10th was the big one down our way with a good swath of 6-12" across southern middle TN. Hung around a full week. The other snows I recorded were all 2" or less on Dec 12, 25, and 26th, Jan 26th, and Feb 7th and 9th.

You can find excellent records going way back on the NOWData page of the NWS:
https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ohx

*I've found much of the snowfall data is missing for my nearest location, but its solid for Nashville, Clarksville, and Crossville.