Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: schneitzeit on July 31, 2020, 10:05:17 PM

Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on July 31, 2020, 10:05:17 PM
We're four months from meteorological winter, and winter lovers nation-wide are apt to discuss what to expect this season.

So, let's talk about it.

La Niña is expected to develop during the autumn months[1], though we're not entirely confident in that just yet as we are currently in an ENSO-neutral pattern. La Niña events typically feature increased precipitation for the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, and commonly bring warmer than normal temperatures.

Last winter, we were stable in a weak/moderate El Niño. You can see the trends since 2008 here (credit to NOAA):

[attachimg=1]


Another factor to examine is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This phenomenon is indicated by the pressure discrepancy between the subpolar and subtropical latitudes (on a map, Greenland and the Azores). A +NAO typically results in warmer than normal temperatures in the Eastern U.S. We witnessed this last year [2]:

[attachimg=2]


Yet another factor to analyze is the Madden-Julian Oscillation. This eastward-moving tropical convective system is classified into eight different phases, and it status affects our temperature and precipitation anomalies on a weekly basis. The MJO often traverses the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool every 30-60 days. [3] Take a look, for instance, at the phases of the MJO and their effect on our temperature during the winter months:

[attachimg=3]

More importantly, however, the MJO is more of a short-range tool, as it varies on a weekly basis. So one really couldn't use the status of the MJO for a long-range forecast, if I am not mistaken. But it's yet another tool that helps an amateur weather enthusiast like myself gauge the climate as we descend into the cooler months.


I have simplified a tremendously complex process, and the best insight we have at the present time is probably our seasonal La Niña Watch. But I hope I have invited amiable discussion, and here's to, hopefully, a better winter than the recent ones our state as a whole has experienced. I know statistics just don't work this way, but let's be honest, we're past due for a decent winter.


Sources:

[1] https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
[2]https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/
[3]https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care#:~:text=The%20MJO%20consists%20of%20two,in%20the%20suppressed%20convective%20phase.




[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on July 31, 2020, 11:15:50 PM
Well, for better or worse, you now carry the burden of winter on your shoulders. May God have mercy on your soul.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on August 01, 2020, 08:24:10 AM
way early still... but I am going out. on a limb here, I am going with a warmer than average winter...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 01, 2020, 10:42:28 AM
[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]

We are passed due for a colder and snowier winter and typically a La-Nina should mean an active northern stream although with a SE Ridge, but other factors may dominate the ENSO which looks to be a fairly weak La-Nina.  Just like the MJO and the strong Polar Vortex dominated the El-Nino last winter and the MJO and -PNA dominated the El-Nino in 2018-19. 

With the unusual warmth in the Maritime area/Indian Ocean that is still a strong signal for MJO phases 4-6 the least favorable phases.  Add the very warm Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic Ocean plus the tendacy for a La-Nina to have a ridge component plus recent trends/climate change then I just don't see how you can forecast anything but warmer than average. We at times are still struggling with that pesky ridge off the west coast of Alaska.

In order for us to get below-average we are going to need a strongly -NAO/-AO (we haven't seen a -NAO since 2012-13 and we will likely need a 2010-11 style NAO/AO combo or a super strong -EPO/+PNA with a weaker polar vortex-like 2013-14, 2014-15, or that late Dec/Early January period of 2017-18).

It isn't impossible for us to have a colder/snowier than normal winter but more things are on team warms side than team cools side.   

[attachment deleted by admin]

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Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 01, 2020, 10:48:28 AM
Early Analogs:
1952-53
1983-84
2005-06
2016-17
2017-18

There may be some hope that December may be at least around average instead of a blowtorch like we are used to but either January and/or February go above to even way above average just on an analog approach.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 09, 2020, 07:15:57 AM
The Euro Monthlies are pretty much 2016-17 for the November-February timeframe.  Not too dissimilar from my outlook.  It looks like the Polar Vortex may be locked in the poles as well according to that.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on August 09, 2020, 07:48:02 AM
The Euro Monthlies are pretty much 2016-17 for the November-February timeframe.  Not too dissimilar from my outlook.  It looks like the Polar Vortex may be locked in the poles as well according to that.

I would take that. We had a couple snow days that year and duck season was a great one!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on August 14, 2020, 08:30:46 PM
August 13th Update from NOAA:

La Niña development probability has increased to 60%.

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml


Model averages from last month:

[attachimg=1]


Our suspicion of a Weak to Moderate La Niña are coming to fruition.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on August 16, 2020, 10:37:55 PM
Hoping we can get a -NAO this winter, or at least for part of it. We haven't had that in a long time, as evidenced by this chart. A negative NAO, on average, produces better winter weather down here. Take a look:

[attachimg=1]

In recent years, the good winter of 2010-2011 that witnessed a snowy December for TN featured a strong -NAO. Other examples include the record-breaking snowy winter of 1959-1960. You can also see when January 1985 had a -NAO.

The past several winters have all had +NAO patterns, which can make it trickier for snowmakers in Tennessee.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 16, 2020, 11:49:01 PM
I do not think it ultimately matters that much to be honest if you look at it in a IMBY prospective. Events are rarely state wide. Most snowfall events are even localized to area of counties. Winter 40 miles from here could be epic while I see 2" of snow for the year. I am done looking at the fine details this far out. Long range during winter should be 120hr out for TN. Where snowfall rides on 1-2 degree many of times its all a matter of luck really. It could really be that simple guys. No year is really better than another unless you are looking regionally. When is the last time that has happened? Vanilla way to look I know as it takes the fun out of forecasting. But snowfall in TN is many times hopes and dreams.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 17, 2020, 08:34:09 AM
As far as what we really really want snow we can have a favorable pattern and strike out (alas I-40 from Nashville to Memphis in 2013-14) and we can have a not as favorable pattern and sneak in some storms (alas 2015-16 or Chattanogga last Feb).

Obvisously the more favorable a winter you have the more oppurtunities you have but nothing is a 100% guarantee in the South. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on August 17, 2020, 09:29:05 AM
About the only thing that is close to guaranteed in a Tennessee winter is that us in Northwest Tennessee will USUALLY cash in at least once or twice while the rest of the state strikes out.  Lol now I just jinxed us and we will repeat last winter and watch Chattanooga actually cash in.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 17, 2020, 11:56:58 AM
About the only thing that is close to guaranteed in a Tennessee winter is that us in Northwest Tennessee will USUALLY cash in at least once or twice while the rest of the state strikes out.  Lol now I just jinxed us and we will repeat last winter and watch Chattanooga actually cash in.

Last winter we struck out.  In matter of fact there were places in Indiana that didn't even see 1 inch of snow total last winter.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on August 17, 2020, 12:42:21 PM
Last winter we struck out.  In matter of fact there were places in Indiana that didn't even see 1 inch of snow total last winter.

I was in a sweet spot last year. I managed to get 3" over the course of the winter.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on August 17, 2020, 12:43:33 PM
I have higher hopes for this winter than last.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: DocB on August 17, 2020, 01:34:25 PM
I have higher hopes for this winter than last.
It's 2020 - heck, I'm expecting ice storms with how this year has played out.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 17, 2020, 02:45:06 PM
It's 2020 - heck, I'm expecting ice storms with how this year has played out.

Or a Super Tuesday/Super Outbreak style outbreak on Christmas Day after 40-50MPH winds and blowing snow all across our area the week before.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on August 18, 2020, 08:26:07 AM
I was in a sweet spot last year. I managed to get 3" over the course of the winter.

Isn't that sad though, we get excited over 3 inches of snow for a total season now and call it a sweet spot :(  I remember about every other season getting about 3 snows a year that would put down 3-4 inches every time and every few years getting a big 6-8 inch snowfall.

Past 2 seasons I have had 1 inch total , I am hoping for a return to a double digit year this year for the first time in a decade
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on August 18, 2020, 08:57:50 AM
Isn't that sad though, we get excited over 3 inches of snow for a total season now and call it a sweet spot :(  I remember about every other season getting about 3 snows a year that would put down 3-4 inches every time and every few years getting a big 6-8 inch snowfall.

Past 2 seasons I have had 1 inch total , I am hoping for a return to a double digit year this year for the first time in a decade

Wow you have had it rough.  I have been teaching HS for 8 years.  My first 3-4 years we missed between 8-14 days each year.  The only year we haven't been out for snow at least a day was last year.  NW TN is definitely the sweet spot for snow most years. 17-18 winter we were out for 11 days straight early January.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on August 18, 2020, 10:05:17 AM
Wow you have had it rough.  I have been teaching HS for 8 years.  My first 3-4 years we missed between 8-14 days each year.  The only year we haven't been out for snow at least a day was last year.  NW TN is definitely the sweet spot for snow most years. 17-18 winter we were out for 11 days straight early January.

yep lately its that erin,paris Clarksville corridor that gets the snow, but the 412 corridor, we can get hit hard sometimes because that heavy gulf moisture sometimes only goes so far north and we get hammered and north of 40 gets nothing its always a crapshoot lol. I can remember 4 7+ inch snows here and several 4-6 inch snows, but as I said usually we would always average around 7-10 inches per season , we have not come close to that in at least 9 years
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on August 18, 2020, 11:23:22 AM
Wow, that would suck to have that bad of a streak!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on August 18, 2020, 11:31:29 AM
Wow, that would suck to have that bad of a streak!

yeah everybody gets upset at my pessimistic attitude on here during winter , lol well you go through a decade like that and see how you would be LOL
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: joemomma on August 18, 2020, 03:28:04 PM
I've jinxed us all by buying a 4x4 truck two years ago.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on August 18, 2020, 04:12:57 PM
I've jinxed us all by buying a 4x4 truck two years ago.

ugh trade it in LOL
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 18, 2020, 05:23:29 PM
Like every winter since the mid 2010s there are two things that we will very likely being going up against.   

- Warm Indian Ocean values leading to more time spent in MJO Phases 4-6 and higher amplitude events in those. 

- Warm ocean waters especially Gulf, Atlantic, and Caribbean. This would still be a signal for a strong SE Ridge and it means stronger warm air advection events and warm noses as well.   

We could have some 2014-15 or 2017-18 winter like-success but we have to rely on the EPO, PNA, and a weakened polar vortex and we have to have all three to counteract the MJO and the NAO that you know will be raging +.   

I am very concerned that we see another winter where you are stuck in MJO Phases 4-6, the polar vortex locks the cold air at the poles, and there is no significant sustained cold air to be found to our north leading to pretty much a mix of last winter and 2005-06.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 19, 2020, 07:58:31 AM
The Old Farmer's Almanac which usually showers us in cold and snow now is forecasting a warmer and drier winter for us.

You know the optisim isn't there when even the Old Farmer's Almanac is not on your side. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 19, 2020, 11:09:50 AM
Wow you have had it rough.  I have been teaching HS for 8 years.  My first 3-4 years we missed between 8-14 days each year.  The only year we haven't been out for snow at least a day was last year.  NW TN is definitely the sweet spot for snow most years. 17-18 winter we were out for 11 days straight early January.
  That 11 day stretch was as close to late 70s as you can get.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: mempho on August 31, 2020, 02:29:13 PM
Just a Reminder:  King Euro still owes us plus almost 7 years interest:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200831/aeb8c82768ae37e63919965d9f91ea94.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on August 31, 2020, 03:38:37 PM
Just a Reminder:  King Euro still owes us plus almost 7 years interest:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200831/aeb8c82768ae37e63919965d9f91ea94.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

YES PLEASE :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on August 31, 2020, 03:45:20 PM
Don't EURO and GFS burp out something ridiculous like that in the long range nearly every year?

Impressive to have held onto a 200+ hour clown map from 2014.  ::lookaround::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on August 31, 2020, 05:05:35 PM
old farmers almanac going with not so cold and not to wet for us this winter season.... :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on August 31, 2020, 05:41:32 PM
Outlook 2 out of 3:

Pretty much I took 2017-18 and copied and pasted on to a map. I also wrote 2018-19 and 2019-20 and dashed them out with a thick black line to show my displeasure towards such crappy winters.

I do think that 2017-18 is the top analog for this upcoming winter due to a few reasons.

1) Factors in Climate Change and overall background state

2) Similar ENSO strength

3) An active northern stream is present this summer that reminds me of that winter

4) Warmth in the Indian ocean

5) A very strong Sonora/Southwest Ridge along with ridging signals on the East Coast/Southeast/Western Atlantic   

[attachimg=1]



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Matthew on August 31, 2020, 06:09:50 PM
Outlook 2 out of 3:

Pretty much I took 2017-18 and copied and pasted on to a map. I also wrote 2018-19 and 2019-20 and dashed them out with a thick black line to show my displeasure towards such crappy winters.

I do think that 2017-18 is the top analog for this upcoming winter due to a few reasons.

1) Factors in Climate Change and overall background state

2) Similar ENSO strength

3) An active northern stream is present this summer that reminds me of that winter

4) Warmth in the Indian ocean

5) A very strong Sonora/Southwest Ridge along with ridging signals on the East Coast/Southeast/Western Atlantic   

(Attachment Link)
Agree totally with you outlook.  Honestly I don’t see how anyone can call for cold and snowy anymore.  I do believe we are in for a wet winter.  Seems winters are more wetter than normal.  I also expect a cooler than normal November and March.  All other months warm.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on August 31, 2020, 06:54:16 PM
Actually little to early to make my forecast ... I will do mine mid October ... I will have a full detail forecast as usual month by Month...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on August 31, 2020, 08:10:59 PM
Outlook 2 out of 3:

Pretty much I took 2017-18 and copied and pasted on to a map. I also wrote 2018-19 and 2019-20 and dashed them out with a thick black line to show my displeasure towards such crappy winters.

I do think that 2017-18 is the top analog for this upcoming winter due to a few reasons.

1) Factors in Climate Change and overall background state

2) Similar ENSO strength

3) An active northern stream is present this summer that reminds me of that winter

4) Warmth in the Indian ocean

5) A very strong Sonora/Southwest Ridge along with ridging signals on the East Coast/Southeast/Western Atlantic   

(Attachment Link)

Book 17-18! That was a **** of a January! Cold as balls!

We stayed out of school for like 11 days due to snow and ice. Wanting to say I was off more days that month than I taught.  Fought thick ice for about 3 straight weeks in January that duck season.  Reelfoot lake froze over solid, 5-6 inches thick. People walked all over it.

If I remember right it got frigid cold the week of Christmas and hardly let up through mid to late January. We had at least 2 good snows.

Pretty sure about January 10th or 11th we had a major warm up and the snow and ice started melting some.  It got to like 65 degrees on the 11th then that big he a huge system moved in and temps dropped like 40 degrees and it came a big ice/sleet storm then snowed hard on top of that until about noon on the 12th. Then stayed froze for about 2 weeks straight again.

Pics of that event


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on August 31, 2020, 08:30:36 PM
More

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on August 31, 2020, 10:01:43 PM
Wow. Let me pass out... jb going with warm pretty much except far nw of the country this winter  ::blowtorch::
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on September 01, 2020, 09:01:10 AM
Wow. Let me pass out... jb going with warm pretty much except far nw of the country this winter  ::blowtorch::
And that should the indication it won’t be right just based on that alone.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on September 01, 2020, 09:54:37 AM
And that should the indication it won’t be right just based on that alone.

yes maybe there's now a chance for us LOL
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on September 01, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
And that should the indication it won’t be right just based on that alone.
reverse physiology perhaps ...lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Crockett on September 01, 2020, 12:09:38 PM
Wow. Let me pass out... jb going with warm pretty much except far nw of the country this winter  ::blowtorch::

(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/840/283/350.png)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JHart on September 01, 2020, 06:16:19 PM
reverse physiology perhaps ...lol
I reversed some physiology last week leaning over to prune a hedge.  It's certainly put a chill on my ability to sit upright.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on September 01, 2020, 06:54:44 PM
I reversed some physiology last week leaning over to prune a hedge.  It's certainly put a chill on my ability to sit upright.

I totally did not notice that typo.

I'm starting to understand what Bruce means without reading the right words.   ::doh::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Matthew on September 01, 2020, 08:36:19 PM
yes maybe there's now a chance for us LOL
Well anyone want to bet that yes he swings and misses on his cold and snowy forecast but will hit a grandslam with this warmer forecast. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on September 02, 2020, 04:42:28 PM
Well anyone want to bet that yes he swings and misses on his cold and snowy forecast but will hit a grandslam with this warmer forecast.

His warm forecast in 2010-11 went about as well as his cold winter forecasts since then have went.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on September 02, 2020, 05:36:47 PM
His warm forecast in 2010-11 went about as well as his cold winter forecasts since then have went.
yeah but that winter 10 11 came to a quick halt... once that la nina got stronger...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on September 02, 2020, 06:16:45 PM
not sure where to put this but is anybody going to do a new college football thread :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on September 02, 2020, 07:34:23 PM
not sure where to put this but is anybody going to do a new college football thread :)

Already there- https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,3968.0.html
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on September 03, 2020, 01:47:05 PM
The QBO did a total head fake. It was headed negative, stopped a couple months ago and is now on the quick rise up. It’s the only year in ANY records it’s barely gone negative to start going positive. In all other cases, when it goes negative it tanks for 12 months. But it’s 2020 so why not buck all trends.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on September 25, 2020, 12:14:44 PM
There are some winter winner analogs and some winter loser analogs. As more pieces are coming together here is where we are now:

1. Weak to Mod La Nina- most models are peaking this La Nina in October and keeping it stable through the winter.
2. QBO- positive or westerly
3. PDO- mildly negative
3. AMO- positive as it has for the last 25 years
4. Solar- low- in fact we are in one of the lowest on record
5. IOD- negative (was ridiculously positive last winter)

As long as the La Nina doesn't get strong which is not forecast which would be a torch, I think there will be some chances for winter to be decent at times. 2010-2011 and 1995-96 are similar in fit to the 5 indexes above. There are some negative AMO winters that look similar to the other features that were mild. As always, the EPO, NAO, and AO are all transient so those will be short term reads. The JMA has a brutally cold northern plains and great lakes winter with more mild across the south. With cold air lurking, I would think that even with an overall mild winter, we could do nicely at times. the CFS2 is actually cold from the central plains into the east which def fits the 2010-11 and 1995-96 analogs. As usual, the Euro is a torch; I cant remember when it has caught any cold air past 2-3 weeks. As Storm said, a Sonoran ridge does look likely in the SW- which could swing a SW flow over the area at times. Does a SE ridge appear, too? Perhaps. Its a friend or foe depending on strength. More later as we get closer.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on September 25, 2020, 02:28:15 PM
There are some winter winner analogs and some winter loser analogs. As more pieces are coming together here is where we are now:

1. Weak to Mod La Nina- most models are peaking this La Nina in October and keeping it stable through the winter.
2. QBO- positive or westerly
3. PDO- mildly negative
3. AMO- positive as it has for the last 25 years
4. Solar- low- in fact we are in one of the lowest on record
5. IOD- negative (was ridiculously positive last winter)

As long as the La Nina doesn't get strong which is not forecast which would be a torch, I think there will be some chances for winter to be decent at times. 2010-2011 and 1995-96 are similar in fit to the 5 indexes above. There are some negative AMO winters that look similar to the other features that were mild. As always, the EPO, NAO, and AO are all transient so those will be short term reads. The JMA has a brutally cold northern plains and great lakes winter with more mild across the south. With cold air lurking, I would think that even with an overall mild winter, we could do nicely at times. the CFS2 is actually cold from the central plains into the east which def fits the 2010-11 and 1995-96 analogs. As usual, the Euro is a torch; I cant remember when it has caught any cold air past 2-3 weeks. As Storm said, a Sonoran ridge does look likely in the SW- which could swing a SW flow over the area at times. Does a SE ridge appear, too? Perhaps. Its a friend or foe depending on strength. More later as we get closer.
i am really getting excited about seeing a decent to potent severe wx outbreak also during mid late winter here ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Crockett on September 25, 2020, 02:38:12 PM
i am really getting excited about seeing a decent to potent severe wx outbreak also during mid late winter here ...

Over your house, of course.  ::)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Eric on September 25, 2020, 04:29:58 PM
i am really getting excited about seeing a decent to potent severe wx outbreak also during mid late winter here ...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/AMCyr6zWZ9zXy/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on September 25, 2020, 05:58:29 PM
I am a bit more pessimistic when it comes to the winter outlook, but there are some encourgaging signs.  The legion like Sonora ridge and +PNA structure is one of those.

Hint: if you are Bruce you don't like this because +PNA's tend to be more unfavorable for widespread severe weather. 

The Indian Ocean warmth and tendancy to be strung along Phases 4,5,6, and maybe some time in 7 is yuck.  The climate change warming effect cannot be ignored and with a weaker La-Nina there is always that SE Ridge effect. 

The big wildcard this winter is cue the media "the Polar Vortex" do we have those strong low pressure systems in the poles or in places like the Gulf of Alaksa where we don't want them, which bottle up the cold air way to our north.  Therefore the EPO and the Polar Vortex strength are key and are the reason why 2019-20 and that whole strand of late 90s/early 2000s winters went to crap for pretty much all of the USA and most of Canada.   

I think the two options for winter are:

The Bad: The EPO doesn't cooperate and the Polar Vortex remains too strong so pretty much a repeat of last winter mixed with some 52-53 and 98-99.  Severe weather chances would increase while winter weather chances decrease although a window would exist for an ice storm especially across western and northern areas of TN and points northwest.

The Better:  Some mix of 2017-18 and 1995-96. The 2nd half of February would still torch, but with a weaken polar vortex, some cold air storage from last winter, and the western ridge at times forcing troughing eastward thanks to a +PNA there would be at least one if not even a few periods of colder than average weather and winter storm threats.  Outside of later in February severe weather wouldn't be as much of an issue.  This would probably feature a very warm west and especially southwestern USA, average Pacific NW, below average Upper Midwest and possibility as far south as the Ohio Valley, and average to above-average but changeable Southeastern and East Coast regions. If we want to get colder in the Southeast and East Coast we would need a -NAO.       


Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on September 25, 2020, 07:17:27 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/AMCyr6zWZ9zXy/giphy.gif)
ok....
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on September 27, 2020, 04:30:07 PM
ok....
[/quote

I am going to be busy that day outside? Can you please be more detailed with the day and time?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on September 27, 2020, 11:01:18 PM
Here is my forecast for this winter.

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Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on September 27, 2020, 11:44:12 PM
Snowfall forecast for the state. It's probably doo-doo, but whatever. As with sports, I have fun making weather predictions.

We have a weak to possibly moderate La Nina that may strengthen the detested SE ridge, as analogs suggest. That will create some edging for good snows to our state's north and northwest, but with some buckling in the ridge and a favorable storm track (increased precipitation), I believe West Tennessee- especially NW Tennessee- could really benefit from this. Places like southern Middle Tennessee and the southern East TN Valley will too often be on the warm side of the storm tracks to witness snowfall. I think cities like Chattanooga could pick up some minor snow accumulation from an Alberta Clipper, but with a warm winter in the forecast for our region, it might require a combination of sufficient snowpack to our northwest and a -AO to create snowfall in Tennessee's southern reaches.

Bold predictions
1. Nashville gets the most snow of Tennessee's big four cities
2. Northwest Tennessee receives above average snowfall
3. Southern Middle Tennessee and the eastern Valley witness below normal snowfall
4. Tennessee has its first ice storm since 2015
5. Everyone in the state receives at least 1" of snow this winter

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Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on September 27, 2020, 11:56:29 PM
Snowfall forecast for the state. It's probably doo-doo, but whatever. As with sports, I have fun making weather predictions.

We have a weak to possibly moderate La Nina that may strengthen the detested SE ridge, as analogs suggest. That will create some edging for good snows to our state's north and northwest, but with some buckling in the ridge and a favorable storm track (increased precipitation), I believe West Tennessee- especially NW Tennessee- could really benefit from this. Places like southern Middle Tennessee and the southern East TN Valley will too often be on the warm side of the storm tracks to witness snowfall. I think cities like Chattanooga could pick up some minor snow accumulation from an Alberta Clipper, but with a warm winter in the forecast for our region, it might require a combination of sufficient snowpack to our northwest and a -AO to create snowfall in Tennessee's southern reaches.

Bold predictions
1. Nashville gets the most snow of Tennessee's big four cities
2. Northwest Tennessee receives above average snowfall
3. Southern Middle Tennessee and the eastern Valley witness below normal snowfall
4. Tennessee has its first ice storm since 2015
5. Everyone in the state receives at least 1" of snow this winter

(Attachment Link)
I will take the 12 inches of snow for Clarksville and run right now! ::popcorn::::fingerscrossed::::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on September 28, 2020, 07:26:31 AM
With cold air lurking, I would think that even with an overall mild winter, we could do nicely at times. the CFS2 is actually cold from the central plains into the east which def fits the 2010-11 and 1995-96 analogs.

I appreciate all of the winter thoughts. I don't really know anything, but am fine with the idea of an overall mild winter as long as we get a couple weeks in the deep freeze with some snow. Seems like at least some potential for that during the favored deep winter prime time. The older I get the more I enjoy a warm Nov-Dec and March.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: bugalou on September 30, 2020, 01:44:10 PM
Here is my forecast for this winter.

(Attachment Link)

Considering the pattern thus far, you are brave for going above normal in the North East.  Seems like its really the only place on the planet with consistent cold anomalies over the past 5+ years.  Last year's winter was mild there though on the other hand.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on September 30, 2020, 06:57:37 PM
Yep, I'm with Coach B, enjoy reading everyone's thoughts. Good job guys. Hopefully the colder and snowier forecasts are closer to correct. ;)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on September 30, 2020, 07:29:23 PM
We are now officially in a La Niña ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 01, 2020, 06:52:37 PM
Accuweather's winter forecast.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 01, 2020, 07:06:04 PM
It has quite a bit in common with the one I doctored up Sunday night. You can see the effect La Niña has on winter forecasting.

[attachimg=1]


I find Accuweather's "Snow at times" over Minnesota to be comically vague. Bold prediction, guys- there will be snow at times in Minnesota. How about being a little more specific and mention above or below normal snowfall?

Rain & Snow over the Great Lakes. How specific. You might as well write "Increasing daylight hours."
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 01, 2020, 07:17:32 PM
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Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 01, 2020, 07:27:25 PM
Well all these seasonal predictions have been absolutely wrong for the past 3-4 years, so I’m expecting a banner winter. 12”+ IMBY.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: NashRugger on October 02, 2020, 09:52:08 PM
Accuweather's winter forecast.

(Attachment Link)
"Snow at times" for part of the Upper Midwest, how groundbreaking.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 03, 2020, 09:39:39 AM
Accuweather issued a forecast that didn't say record warm or record cold so that is something.   

By their sakes that is a pretty benign forecast.  I will be out with my final outlook but note I haven't been close to right since 2017-18.  I was okay on 2016-17 but I bombed 2015-16 and the last two winters. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2020, 10:49:42 AM
Accuweather issued a forecast that didn't say record warm or record cold so that is something.   

By their sakes that is a pretty benign forecast.  I will be out with my final outlook but note I haven't been close to right since 2017-18.  I was okay on 2016-17 but I bombed 2015-16 and the last two winters.
i am going with 98 99 winter ... seems like each week lately Niña is spiking upwards
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 03, 2020, 11:09:52 AM
"Snow at times" for part of the Upper Midwest, how groundbreaking.  ::coffee::

I know, I made fun of this in my post above
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 03, 2020, 12:21:57 PM
i am going with 98 99 winter ... seems like each week lately Niña is spiking upwards

98-99 is a solid secondary analog, but this La-Nina probably won't be quite as strong and we aren't coming off of a super El-Nino in the year before.  2005-06 and 2017-18 are probably better ones.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 04, 2020, 10:07:19 AM
The offical and final outlook.  I would have done this a little later but I will be crazy busy in the late October/November timeframe and probably wouldn't have extra time to do it. 

Overall I think we are heading for yet another warmer than average winter.  One thing that I think will be different this time around due to the ENSO signal and the fact it is 2020 so why not is the potential for an actual cold December with winter chances. Colder air in Canada and Siberia may allow us to build an early cold-air reservoir that we could use for a cold December. 

After that though some features that aren't going to be favorable include another year of crappy MJO due to warmth in the Indian Ocean, a La-Nina that tends to strengthen both the SW and SE Ridges as the winter goes on, and the constant struggle to find a -NAO/-AO.  There is also a signal that the dreaded Gulf of Alaska low pressure system which is what is driving the upcoming warmth towards the middle of this month will make frequent appearances.     

[attachimg=1]

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Overall there is some hope for some winter on the front-end, but the 2nd half of winter and probably even into March looks to feature more severe thunderstorm/tornado chances than winter chances.  If our December pattern doesn't verify and we don't score before January 20th then it will be time to punt this winter and head into spring.   

Outlook for Memphis:
Dec: -2.0
Jan: +0.4
Feb: +9.5
Snowfall: 4.1 inches

Outlook for Nashville:
Dec: -1.9
Jan: +0.9
Feb: +9.9
Snowfall: 4.9 inches

Outlook for Knoxville:
Dec: -1.5
Jan: +1.5
Feb: +9.0
Snowfall: 4.9 inches

Outlook for Bowling Green:
Dec: -2.1
Jan: +0.5
Feb: +9.5
Snowfall: 7.0 inches

Outlook for Chattanogga:
Dec: -1.6
Jan: +1.5
Feb: +9.1
Snowfall: 1.5 inches

I also predict at least one severe weather event in late January/February across our area that would at least verify a Moderate Risk (it doesn't have to be an offical Moderate Risk day either as we have had a lot of Oh! Crap Slight and Enhanced Risk days recently) either by wind or tornado.   


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Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 04, 2020, 12:35:49 PM
The offical and final outlook.  I would have done this a little later but I will be crazy busy in the late October/November timeframe and probably wouldn't have extra time to do it. 

Overall I think we are heading for yet another warmer than average winter.  One thing that I think will be different this time around due to the ENSO signal and the fact it is 2020 so why not is the potential for an actual cold December with winter chances. Colder air in Canada and Siberia may allow us to build an early cold-air reservoir that we could use for a cold December. 

After that though some features that aren't going to be favorable include another year of crappy MJO due to warmth in the Indian Ocean, a La-Nina that tends to strengthen both the SW and SE Ridges as the winter goes on, and the constant struggle to find a -NAO/-AO.  There is also a signal that the dreaded Gulf of Alaska low pressure system which is what is driving the upcoming warmth towards the middle of this month will make frequent appearances.     

(Attachment Link)

(Attachment Link)

(Attachment Link)

(Attachment Link)

(Attachment Link)

(Attachment Link)

Overall there is some hope for some winter on the front-end, but the 2nd half of winter and probably even into March looks to feature more severe thunderstorm/tornado chances than winter chances.  If our December pattern doesn't verify and we don't score before January 20th then it will be time to punt this winter and head into spring.   

Outlook for Memphis:
Dec: -2.0
Jan: +0.4
Feb: +9.5
Snowfall: 4.1 inches

Outlook for Nashville:
Dec: -1.9
Jan: +0.9
Feb: +9.9
Snowfall: 4.9 inches

Outlook for Knoxville:
Dec: -1.5
Jan: +1.5
Feb: +9.0
Snowfall: 4.9 inches

Outlook for Bowling Green:
Dec: -2.1
Jan: +0.5
Feb: +9.5
Snowfall: 7.0 inches

Outlook for Chattanogga:
Dec: -1.6
Jan: +1.5
Feb: +9.1
Snowfall: 1.5 inches

I also predict at least one severe weather event in late January/February across our area that would at least verify a Moderate Risk (it doesn't have to be an offical Moderate Risk day either as we have had a lot of Oh! Crap Slight and Enhanced Risk days recently) either by wind or tornado.
appreciate your thoughts steven, seem to be right on,,, but I would cut the total of snowfall for each describing city you mentioned in half... go with it then.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: bugalou on October 07, 2020, 09:20:35 AM
One commonality I am seeing in these forcasts is western TN being on the edges of above normal and below normal temps.  That makes me think a SE ridge being present in some for and arctic cold fronts are going to get hung up on the west end of the state.  Three words - Ice Ice Baby

(https://i.imgur.com/Wu15Lqq.png)

(word to  your mother  ::shaking_finger::  ::rofl:: )
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 07, 2020, 10:50:10 AM
One commonality I am seeing in these forcasts is western TN being on the edges of above normal and below normal temps.  The makes me think a SE ridge being present in some for and arctic cold fronts are going to get hung up on the west end of the state.  Three words - Ice Ice Baby

(https://i.imgur.com/Wu15Lqq.png)

(word to  your mother  ::shaking_finger::  ::rofl:: )
ice and severe wx potential will be two big things watch ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2020, 12:23:14 PM
It has been awhile since the I-44 corrdior in Missouri was hit by an ice storm I think that comes to an end this winter.

Could there be an additional threat further southeast that would depend on the SE ridging at the time. 

Lets not forget that the 2nd worst ice storm in the past 50 years for Tennessee occurred in a much warmer than average La-Nina winter.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 07, 2020, 04:39:58 PM
One of my predictions for the winter is we will see a statewide ice storm for the first time since 2015
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 08, 2020, 11:03:02 AM
[attachimg=1]

X means unfavorable for sustained cold and a check mark means favorable.   

Some of these are starting to become trends as we head further into the cool season.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 08, 2020, 11:07:28 AM
1954, 1988, 2007, and 2008 are starting to appear on this analog pattern list a lot. 

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: cgauxknox on October 08, 2020, 12:38:17 PM
With all the talk here about ice it's probably time to tune up my generator and gather some more firewood for this year. I was a student at UT when Knoxville got the one in '96 and the university actually closed for multiple days. Much of the city was without power for days and while campus never lost power it was still a strange stretch of days. We certainly don't need one of those again, but 2020 being 2020 we'll probably be iced in without power for Christmas...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: bugalou on October 08, 2020, 05:09:06 PM
All the progress models have made are great and credit to the people who made them happen and get better.

That said, I'd give up my left [RADIO EDIT] for a surprise winter storm that over produces this year.  It's been so long since we had something like this happen here near Memphis.  Last I can remember here was NYE 2000 going into 2001 when we got 4"-6" from a northern stream short wave that greatly over produced.  It had been cold all December too so it stuck instantly even on the roads.

Also FWIW, if I remember correctly the first winter after I moved from southern NJ back home here, the city I lived at up there got a surprise 2'+ storm and I was so mad.  One of my co workers there measured 31 inches of snow in his yard.  Now keep in mind where I lived got more snow chances than Memphis on average, but the actual amounts were not great due to proximity to the ocean, the biggest snow storm I witnessed while living there was around 8".  We had some heart breaking Miller B setups too where 1'+ was proded that ended in literal dustings.  ::bangingheadintowall::

I don't need 30"+ but" a good 5"+ event without a week of model chasing anxiety would be so nice.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clay on October 11, 2020, 05:33:51 PM
Interesting writeup by the WaPo on the winter of '59-'60. Knoxville logged 57, yes you read that correctly, 57" of snow that season; Nashville with a mere 38". Obviously the modern day arctic is far too warm to support sustained cold air of that magnitude at this latitude but in the grand scheme of long term climatology, it's hard to believe that happened only 60 years ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/22/sixty-years-ago-after-gentle-start-winter-stormed-back-south/
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 11, 2020, 06:56:43 PM
Interesting writeup by the WaPo on the winter of '59-'60. Knoxville logged 57, yes you read that correctly, 57" of snow that season; Nashville with a mere 38". Obviously the modern day arctic is far too warm to support sustained cold air of that magnitude at this latitude but in the grand scheme of long term climatology, it's hard to believe that happened only 60 years ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/22/sixty-years-ago-after-gentle-start-winter-stormed-back-south/

In the last 15 years we've had a few events that were a few degrees away from being major events. I think it is just a luck thing combined with us being in a warmer period this reducing our luck even more.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 11, 2020, 07:33:05 PM
The negative is that we are warmer and with this warmer state the I-40 corridor has become the I-20 corridor of the 1920s to mid-1990s and the I-40 corridor of that time is now I-64 if not even I-70 in places.   

The positive is that with increased moisture content although our winter storms have been reduced the ones that do form would be more likely to become warning type events and therefore more significant. 

Luck plays a role as well just ask Memphis to Jackson to Nashville to Lebanon back in 2013-14 or Southeast Missouri during the winters of 2014-15 and 2015-16.     
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 11, 2020, 08:18:35 PM
The negative is that we are warmer and with this warmer state the I-40 corridor has become the I-20 corridor of the 1920s to mid-1990s and the I-40 corridor of that time is now I-64 if not even I-70 in places.   

The positive is that with increased moisture content although our winter storms have been reduced the ones that do form would be more likely to become warning type events and therefore more significant. 

Luck plays a role as well just ask Memphis to Jackson to Nashville to Lebanon back in 2013-14 or Southeast Missouri during the winters of 2014-15 and 2015-16.   
within the next 10 years, i40 will become i10, sad but true
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JHart on October 12, 2020, 09:20:04 AM
within the next 10 years, i40 will become i10, sad but true
Well, at least I won't have to keep dragging my forty-year-old hibiscus trees into the garage every October.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Beth on October 12, 2020, 10:37:39 AM
Well, at least I won't have to keep dragging my forty-year-old hibiscus trees into the garage every October.
We have at 40 plants we have bring into our greenhouse. At least we have a golf cart that the back seat lays down for a place to haul them in.  I have a rubber tree that is 40 yrs old. We have to trim all the plants back to get them all in.  But it is a nice place to sit in the winter with our hibiscus and other flowers that bloom. 😊
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 12, 2020, 04:52:17 PM
Most of ya’ll seem to forget that late December 2017 through late January 2018 was cold as a well diggers butt! I honestly don’t wish to see it that cold for that long again for some time. The duck hunting sure was great.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on October 13, 2020, 07:38:27 AM
Was that the year where it was almost 0 degrees on New Years?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on October 13, 2020, 08:08:50 AM
Most of ya’ll seem to forget that late December 2017 through late January 2018 was cold as a well diggers butt! I honestly don’t wish to see it that cold for that long again for some time. The duck hunting sure was great.

Good point. I think for many, as with other recent cold shots, it failed to produce significant snowfall. Therefore, it gets forgotten or labeled as annoying and wasted cold.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 13, 2020, 08:21:19 AM
Good point. I think for many, as with other recent cold shots, it failed to produce significant snowfall. Therefore, it gets forgotten or labeled as annoying and wasted cold.

Could be, here in NW TN we scored big time on snow with that one.  Best I remember we missed about 2 weeks straight of school (I teach).
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 13, 2020, 11:04:38 AM
Scored on that one also. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 13, 2020, 11:21:25 AM
Good point. I think for many, as with other recent cold shots, it failed to produce significant snowfall. Therefore, it gets forgotten or labeled as annoying and wasted cold.

It was VERY cold, new years eve was frigid!!!!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 13, 2020, 11:52:35 AM
Scored on that one also. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
got close to 4 inches snow ⛄️ that one myself
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 13, 2020, 08:56:12 PM
If you like winter.  Don’t look at latest euro weeklies long ranger...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 14, 2020, 11:12:42 AM
If you like winter.  Don’t look at latest euro weeklies long ranger...

The last time it showed a cold LR forecast in the weeklies was Fall of 2015. We all know how that turned out. The Euro- even its ops model- has a hard time with any cold air past 7 days.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 14, 2020, 11:52:49 AM
The last time it showed a cold LR forecast in the weeklies was Fall of 2015. We all know how that turned out. The Euro- even its ops model- has a hard time with any cold air past 7 days.

Yep I wouldn't put any stock in any of them.  Watch the 15 day forecast and even it can be way wrong.  Put 10 different winter scenarios on a slip of paper and draw them out of a hat and you'll have about as good of odds as predicting what the winter weather will be.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 14, 2020, 03:29:07 PM
Good point. I think for many, as with other recent cold shots, it failed to produce significant snowfall. Therefore, it gets forgotten or labeled as annoying and wasted cold.
Yep. Cold and bone dry here. I set my front yard on fire with my new year's eve fireworks that year. It was about 17 degrees and very windy.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 14, 2020, 08:14:17 PM
If you like winter.  Don’t look at latest euro weeklies long ranger...

Crap, all hope is lost now.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 14, 2020, 09:01:05 PM
Crap, all hope is lost now.
yep.... never dismiss the euro .
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 15, 2020, 06:32:51 AM
yep.... never dismiss the euro .

Let's cancel winter. I'm already looking forward to spring.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2020, 08:42:05 AM
Let's cancel winter. I'm already looking forward to spring.

I'm not even tarping my pool this winter, we'll be swimming in January. Thanks, Euro.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 15, 2020, 08:43:26 AM
yep.... never dismiss the euro .
yep.... never dismiss the euro .
yep.... never dismiss the euro .

I assume you actually mean the euro seasonals-  vs the weeklies. I do give credence to the the euro operational but anyone should be skeptical of seasonal and weeklies. They’re bleak at best and always point to above normal temps after 2 weeks.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on October 15, 2020, 09:34:55 AM
I like the StormNine charts on page 6 and page 5. Just getting caught up. Even if December is not wall to wall cold, it's our best chance at some winter action. Blowtorch February is actually reasonable too. Note that it only takes one just right bowling ball to save a season though.

Looking to spring, I confess I also like severe wx. Bruce you have a friend here, lol! Back to that in a minute. First, some thoughts on Easter 2020.

I hate tornadoes in town. My heart broke when a Chattanooga 4-year old succumbed to his critical tornado injuries last spring. I'm a dad too and I can't imagine. For about 10 days (and we had two more potential set-ups) I was not into it at all. I kept watching radar and surface charts, praying the boundary stays south. It did both times.

However two weeks later the severe wx bug was back. One Thursday I was super tentative, still not ready. Then on a Saturday we had a low-top day with great visibility. I went out. Saw nothing, but it just felt good to get my mind back. Never went to the Plains due to a poor May pattern and covid concerns. However that's usually a thing for me.

So, La Nina? Peer reviewed research consensus is little correlation. However loosening the statistical requirements, I think we have all seen active La Nina years. They can also be active in transition. Still cool Central Pac. Warm right near South America. Trans Nino Index +TNI is one way to measure that. Could it happen this year? Perhaps.

So I feel apprehension in high risk days or when cities are impacted. However I do chase and I enjoy thunderstorms. Prefer a late May subtle ENH out on the Plains over MDT Dixie Alley.

VERY IMPORTANT: Never look at your phone while driving. Best to chase in pairs when the driver ONLY drives. If solo I pull all the way over and stop to look at charts. No exceptions!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: mamMATTus on October 15, 2020, 12:04:14 PM
I'm just not feeling a warm winter overall. I think it will be average temps and rainfall.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2020, 02:54:26 PM
Noaa released their winter forecast today ... warmer than average overall for us...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: joemomma on October 16, 2020, 08:20:05 AM
I have zero faith in any long term outlooks at this point.  You can watch trends/patterns/analogues, but mother nature has a way of throwing a wrench in the works more often than not.  I don't put much stock in anything more than a week out.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 16, 2020, 10:46:03 AM
I have zero faith in any long term outlooks at this point.  You can watch trends/patterns/analogues, but mother nature has a way of throwing a wrench in the works more often than not.  I don't put much stock in anything more than a week out.

Ding Ding Ding, we have a winner!  Nobody has a clue out past 15 days!  Might get be right a small % of time but that is it.  It is fun to try and guess what might happen but that is all it is.  Had a meteorology professor in college tell us that if someone thinks they know what will happen a season in advance, they are full of $hitt lol.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 16, 2020, 12:19:41 PM
Ding Ding Ding, we have a winner!  Nobody has a clue out past 15 days!  Might get be right a small % of time but that is it.  It is fun to try and guess what might happen but that is all it is.  Had a meteorology professor in college tell us that if someone thinks they know what will happen a season in advance, they are full of $hitt lol.
agree with u in  most of this u said... but one thing u can take to the bank is the colder winters we had seen 70s 80 s at times are gone, to much climate change weather we believe it or not. I am just glad I got to enjoy them during my childhood and younger days :D
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on October 16, 2020, 03:20:18 PM
When they update the Normals it'll be harder. For another several months, just always go above normal. Happy Weekend Y'all!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2020, 12:15:56 PM
Snowpack is building pretty well in Siberia
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 18, 2020, 01:19:23 PM
agree with u in  most of this u said... but one thing u can take to the bank is the colder winters we had seen 70s 80 s at times are gone, to much climate change weather we believe it or not. I am just glad I got to enjoy them during my childhood and younger days :D
You say that as fact but you don't know now more than me what the climate has in store. The climate has been changing since God made the world, it can change on a dime. And no we don't know how much man has affected it or not, the climate has a way of overcoming and healing itself. I don't know and you don't really know but we all got our opinions. You can go back and find warm stretches hundreds of years ago and further and cold always come back and I suspect it will again. Even scientist do not agree, only time will tell nobody knows for certain.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 18, 2020, 03:32:39 PM
You say that as fact but you don't know now more than me what the climate has in store. The climate has been changing since God made the world, it can change on a dime. And no we don't know how much man has affected it or not, the climate has a way of overcoming and healing itself. I don't know and you don't really know but we all got our opinions. You can go back and find warm stretches hundreds of years ago and further and cold always come back and I suspect it will again. Even scientist do not agree, only time will tell nobody knows for certain.
just interesting how temps average keeps moving up. Annually... hope I am wrong
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 18, 2020, 05:07:41 PM
Outside of Washington State my outlook and the NOAA outlook are very similar.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on October 18, 2020, 05:15:53 PM
Wait, we are still trying to forecast past 72hours for Winter. I stopped putting any faith in a Winter Outlook for the TN area... A majority of the snowfall that we get in this state is localized and seasonal averages can be had in a day. Fun to watch, but not worth the investment anymore.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 18, 2020, 05:25:14 PM
Wait, we are still trying to forecast past 72hours for Winter. I stopped putting any faith in a Winter Outlook for the TN area... A majority of the snowfall that we get in this state is localized and seasonal averages can be had in a day. Fun to watch, but not worth the investment anymore.
It is very tough to get a statewide hit for a snowstorm, it has happened but not lately for sure. One reason though is our state is long and systems cut alot, we are like a 4 way intersection it seems. I would love to see a good old fashioned southern slider, west to east straight across. I remember a good one in 85. Seems like we used to get them sliders more in the 70's and 80's.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 18, 2020, 05:35:30 PM
just interesting how temps average keeps moving up. Annually... hope I am wrong
No doubt we have been in a warmer period there is no doubt about that. I just remember in the 60's and 70's when we were in cold periods and many said ice age is coming. I go back and look at records and the temp swings have went back and forth alot through history. Not to say you might be on to something, but at the same time I am not buying anything. Mother nature has made many major moves since the earth has been here and I just have my doubts that scientist truly know what's around the corner in the next 20-30 years. I guess that's why we like weather especially here in Tennessee, it's tough to get snow but some years we can score and now and then we can score big, at least parts of the state can. It is hard to get the entire state involved at once but that again can happen. If we got snow all the time like up north our board probably wouldn't be as exciting. But we do need a good snow this year the last 2 years has been terrible for the entire state. We haven't had a half inch snow in the last 2 years here, a skimmer of ice in november of 18 and a few flurries last year that skimmed the ground in only spots. We need a 1-2 inch snow anyway, hopefully we will score before January this year. It looks like it will be tough after mid jan, of course mother nature can always change course. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 18, 2020, 06:52:55 PM
I would also say the stronger the Nina the slightly better we chance we have at having a March Hail-Mary. 

I would say Thanksgiving to Christmas and early to mid March are the better windows for snow.  I would also watch for an ice storm threat at anytime along the I-44 corridor and perhaps as far southeast as NW TN and West KY.  2021 could be a rather rough year for severe weather if the Central USA can avoid drought.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on October 19, 2020, 08:27:27 AM
Wait, we are still trying to forecast past 24 hours for Winter.

Fixed it for you, at least for western and middle TN. East gets 36 hours.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on October 19, 2020, 11:46:40 AM
1. I still favor a warmer than normal winter, especially the actual Tennessee Valley. Mid South could do better with cold air in place. Warm North Pac does favor a little cold air intrusion. However La Nina screams SER.

2. Climate change is observed, regardless of cause. We don't have to debate the climate models, but I will. Weekly forecasting is awful because it's too granular for the state of the art of the science. Monthly is not much better, especially second month. So many epic busts. However seasonal forecasting can add value over normals. Think years with a good ENSO signal and no unusual AO against it. Why does seasonal forecasting add more economic value than weekly or monthly? Simple. Seasonal does not attempt to get more granular than the state of the art of the science. Ten year climate forecast is far from granular, and quite frankly achievable.

So far climate models from 10-15 years ago nailed the higher impacts north and west. Minimal impacts Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley were forecast, and verified. These facts can be checked on CPC websites and looking at old academic journals. NO PEER REVIEWED journals forecast another ice age in the 1970s - just some media. Back 100 years ago British scientists first hypothesized Carbon related climate change. Peer reviewed science has always been to the warm side. In the 1980s and 1990s more scientists joined. By 2018 it was obvious. Despite two very weak solar cycles, temps and carbon kept climbing in lock-step without solar. That kind of divergence on a stock chart means something. Ditto here!

Do not @ me or quote me on this settled science on a weather forum. I will NOT answer. Good people can debate policy. Green New Deal? Skinny / Biden version? Nothing since India and China keep emitting? Oh but that has to be Off Topic, where I don't venture except for sports. Guess don't @ or quote me there either.

3. Spring is going to be stormy!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on October 19, 2020, 01:25:27 PM
nrgJeff- you sound like you have battle scars on that issue, lol. Don't worry- I for one won't be @'ing you on it.  :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 01:53:49 PM
1. I still favor a warmer than normal winter, especially the actual Tennessee Valley. Mid South could do better with cold air in place. Warm North Pac does favor a little cold air intrusion. However La Nina screams SER.

2. Climate change is observed, regardless of cause. We don't have to debate the climate models, but I will. Weekly forecasting is awful because it's too granular for the state of the art of the science. Monthly is not much better, especially second month. So many epic busts. However seasonal forecasting can add value over normals. Think years with a good ENSO signal and no unusual AO against it. Why does seasonal forecasting add more economic value than weekly or monthly? Simple. Seasonal does not attempt to get more granular than the state of the art of the science. Ten year climate forecast is far from granular, and quite frankly achievable.

So far climate models from 10-15 years ago nailed the higher impacts north and west. Minimal impacts Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley were forecast, and verified. These facts can be checked on CPC websites and looking at old academic journals. NO PEER REVIEWED journals forecast another ice age in the 1970s - just some media. Back 100 years ago British scientists first hypothesized Carbon related climate change. Peer reviewed science has always been to the warm side. In the 1980s and 1990s more scientists joined. By 2018 it was obvious. Despite two very weak solar cycles, temps and carbon kept climbing in lock-step without solar. That kind of divergence on a stock chart means something. Ditto here!

Do not @ me or quote me on this settled science on a weather forum. I will NOT answer. Good people can debate policy. Green New Deal? Skinny / Biden version? Nothing since India and China keep emitting? Oh but that has to be Off Topic, where I don't venture except for sports. Guess don't @ or quote me there either.

3. Spring is going to be stormy!

I'll @ you on this, there really isn't such a thing as settled science. Especially in a highly complex field with multiple variables, many still unknown, like meteorology. We've tried to simplify this complex system down to one variable, CO2, and call it settled. It's the height of hubris.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on October 19, 2020, 02:59:16 PM
Scientific theory is never settled 100%. Only Laws of Science are. Theory can change. Great example is micro-bursts. They laughed at Dr. Ted Fujita. Now every airport has a wind shear detection system.

However the dominant drivers of climate change are well understood. The science of greenhouse gasses is relatively simple compared to say complex micro-scale thunderstorm systems and tornadogenesis. The science of greenhouse gasses is general, not specific, which also adds much confidence.

I have an atmospheric science degree and am well versed in climate because I'm in the energy sector. Actually I have rarely debated the topic. I would not say I have battle scars. Just laying out my understanding since I'm still pretty new to the forum. However I've been a professional meteorologist for 25 years.

I'll @ you on this, there really isn't such a thing as settled science. Especially in a highly complex field with multiple variables, many still unknown, like meteorology. We've tried to simplify this complex system down to one variable, CO2, and call it settled. It's the height of hubris.

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 19, 2020, 03:06:08 PM
Hey, guy with a degree in this field who does this for a living, I'm going to @ you!

- Sincerely, schneitzeit (guy w/o a Bachelor's and no experience in your field)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 03:12:29 PM
However the dominant drivers of climate change are well understood.

I would completely disagree with that statement. Again, hubris.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 03:17:14 PM
Hey, guy with a degree in this field who does this for a living, I'm going to @ you!

- Sincerely, schneitzeit (guy w/o a Bachelor's and no experience in your field)

Check out the food the majority of hospitals feed Type 2 diabetics. But don't question it, they know all. Just keep eating it, trusting them and watch your condition continue to deteriorate.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on October 19, 2020, 03:18:17 PM
Please elaborate.
I would completely disagree with that statement. Again, hubris.

I have explained my positions with clear reasoning, solid logic, and comparisons to simply. All you have is crying, hubris.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 03:23:04 PM
Please elaborate.
I have explained my positions with clear reasoning and comparisons to other fields. All you have is crying, hubris.

Nah, I'm not opening that can of worms. I'll just say I disagree. People can look at the ridiculous climate models and judge for themselves. I don't deny we are warming, I deny we know why we are warming. Just for the record.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 19, 2020, 03:24:20 PM
Check out the food the majority of hospitals feed Type 2 diabetics. But don't question it, they know all. Just keep eating it, trusting them and watch your condition continue to deteriorate.

What in the heck does this have to do with the subject at hand? Comparing dietetics to meteorology is apples to oranges.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 19, 2020, 03:30:11 PM
The point in my post is I'm not going to argue with a qualified person in that field if I am not qualified. Snowdog, what are your qualifications? Do you have relevant experience that can effectively defend your claim?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 04:15:45 PM
The point in my post is I'm not going to argue with a qualified person in that field if I am not qualified. Snowdog, what are your qualifications? Do you have relevant experience that can effectively defend your claim?

80 years ago, Ancel Keys simplified heart disease to one metric. Cholesterol. In Climate Science, CO2 is the modern day version of Cholesterol and it is just as flawed as Keys hypothesis.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on October 19, 2020, 04:24:10 PM
Hey we all agree on one thing. It's so ironic that hospitals serve so much fried and junk food.

Anyway the Euro weeklies didn't change much. Going with the CFS and cold late next week, about Halloween. One week only makes sense. Indian Ocean and West Pac are still in a warm phase looking at the MJO. Also that tropical system crossing the Phils is heading to Vietnam, so not a Japan recurve situation this time. A little cold and then a mostly warmer than normal November perhaps.

Looking ahead, and hoping, maybe a change in the background state toward Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2020, 04:29:58 PM
"Despite two very weak solar cycles, temps and carbon kept climbing in lock-step without solar."

This is a very problematic statement. There is MUCH more involved with solar mechanics besides solar cycles. To throw out solar, to me, is the wrong conclusion. Revisiting TSI assumptions or looking at other possible pathways would seem to be the more appropriate response.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 19, 2020, 04:44:22 PM
I know so little about the effects of solar mechanics on climate. That's something I need to improve on.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Drifter on October 19, 2020, 05:11:40 PM
Whew! That was a lot to absorb.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 20, 2020, 07:26:33 AM
I know so little about the effects of solar mechanics on climate. That's something I need to improve on.

That is something the industry in general needs to improve on. Even their assumptions on TSI look to be wrong. (hint: look at major solar events, TSI goes down, not up. Ruh Roh. So all that energy input gets incorrectly put on the wrong side of the ledger and that is just one example) This is why I picked up on how flippantly Jeff shrugged off solar. It's common in his profession. It's hubris, plain and simple. It's one of many reasons why climate models continue to vastly overstate the effect of CO2.

There looks to be a canary in the coal mine currently. With most of the industrialized world shutdown or partially shutdown for at least half the year this year, what effect do you think that has had on temp? Interesting study just came a few weeks ago on it.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 23, 2020, 08:08:57 AM
was anybody around for the 1963/64 new years snow storm in mid Tennessee?

8-15 inches was commonplace in that storm total especially south of I-40...how did that one happen ? I am curious as I know a lot of your are much smarter than me on specifics :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 23, 2020, 08:10:28 AM
was anybody around for the 1963/64 new years snow storm in mid Tennessee?

8-15 inches was commonplace in that storm total especially south of I-40...how did that one happen ? I am curious as I know a lot of your are much smarter than me on specifics :)
Lol maybe Bruce? No one else I assume. I wish we had some old enough to discuss the 1951 ice and snowstorm that crippled Memphis and Nashville.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 23, 2020, 08:32:21 AM
Lol maybe Bruce? No one else I assume. I wish we had some old enough to discuss the 1951 ice and snowstorm that crippled Memphis and Nashville.
i was around ... but still crawling mostly ... lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on October 23, 2020, 09:10:01 AM
was anybody around for the 1963/64 new years snow storm in mid Tennessee?

8-15 inches was commonplace in that storm total especially south of I-40...how did that one happen ? I am curious as I know a lot of your are much smarter than me on specifics :)

HUN has a good writeup on it:

https://www.weather.gov/hun/hunsur_1963-12-31

Quote
After a cold air mass pushed into the southern Gulf on December 29th , cold air advection filtered around high pressure in the Midwest and into the Deep South. The upper level trough amplified and on December 30, 1963, a wave developed on a front in the central Gulf. The frontal wave matured and moved northeast into northern Florida on the 31st. At this time, the upper level trough developed two closed lows along the northern Gulf coast. Most of the snow fell in Huntsville between noon and midnight on the 31st as the surface low moved across northern Florida. As the low made its way up the Eastern seaboard, snow from wrap-around moisture continued to fall through the morning hours of January 1, 1964.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 23, 2020, 09:32:24 AM
Man, good writeup. I really like the hourly breakdown citing light snow most hours. How much snow did they get back then if they had 17" total in Huntsville and the guy recording hourlies is looking out like...yeah, looks like light snow.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 23, 2020, 09:44:25 AM
Man, good writeup. I really like the hourly breakdown citing light snow most hours. How much snow did they get back then if they had 17" total in Huntsville and the guy recording hourlies is looking out like...yeah, looks like light snow.

I thought the same thing...LOL light snow and you end up with 17 inches
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on October 23, 2020, 09:46:51 AM
Years ago, before the text-to-voice bots took NOAA weather radio, one of the older guys at OHX (Bobby Boyd, I think) gave a discussion of the NYE/D snowstorm of '63/'64. I recorded it (on cassette tape probably... this would have been in the 1990s).

I wish I still had it. Being the weird kid I was, I listened to that over and over again, and can actually remember parts of it verbatim, probably not the whole thing. But, here were parts of it, particularly the beginning of it that I think I can remember word for word...

"It had been a cold day, with a high only 30 degrees in Nashville. Cirrus clouds filled the afternoon sky. And, by sunset, low clouds had begun to move in..."

He went on to say that light snow began falling by 7:00 PM. By later that evening, moderate snow and sleet began falling, and he gave temperatures, wind speed and direction. By some time New Years morning, when it tapered off, 13" of snow had fallen in Nashville, with depth packed down to 9" or 10".

Wish I had that recording. The way NWS offices archive text, maybe it can be found out on the internet somewhere.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 23, 2020, 09:47:11 AM
anybody know where the ohx article is for the Jan 2010 storm....it was the biggest snow of my lifetime in lewis county and I cannot find the article....I measured up to 9 inches in my yard with a little freezing rain mixed in, we were shut down for 4 days

or any article for that matter for middle Tennessee?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on October 23, 2020, 10:08:03 AM
Here's a writeup on the event from OHX: https://www.weather.gov/ohx/newyearsday1964snowstorm (https://www.weather.gov/ohx/newyearsday1964snowstorm)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 23, 2020, 10:50:11 AM
Years ago, before the text-to-voice bots took NOAA weather radio, one of the older guys at OHX (Bobby Boyd, I think) gave a discussion of the NYE/D snowstorm of '63/'64. I recorded it (on cassette tape probably... this would have been in the 1990s).

I wish I still had it. Being the weird kid I was, I listened to that over and over again, and can actually remember parts of it verbatim, probably not the whole thing. But, here were parts of it, particularly the beginning of it that I think I can remember word for word...

"It had been a cold day, with a high only 30 degrees in Nashville. Cirrus clouds filled the afternoon sky. And, by sunset, low clouds had begun to move in..."

He went on to say that light snow began falling by 7:00 PM. By later that evening, moderate snow and sleet began falling, and he gave temperatures, wind speed and direction. By some time New Years morning, when it tapered off, 13" of snow had fallen in Nashville, with depth packed down to 9" or 10".

Wish I had that recording. The way NWS offices archive text, maybe it can be found out on the internet somewhere.

Too bad, I'd like to hear that. Very interesting, thanks for sharing. Also interesting is how sleet was mixing in. Goes to show how a degree here or there is all the difference between a historic event and rain/sleet mix. As we are in a warmer regime now, we see quite a few of these near misses of course almost always breaking our heart.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 23, 2020, 12:36:18 PM
Too bad, I'd like to hear that. Very interesting, thanks for sharing. Also interesting is how sleet was mixing in. Goes to show how a degree here or there is all the difference between a historic event and rain/sleet mix. As we are in a warmer regime now, we see quite a few of these near misses of course almost always breaking our heart.

Yep. We’ll flip back cold again sometime. Some of us may get to enjoy it while others of us are dead maybe. Or maybe we are all dead when that happens, who knows.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 23, 2020, 12:45:11 PM
I just find it funny that I can't find an ohx recap of one of the most widespread snowstorms ( jan 2010) in the past 20 years
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 23, 2020, 01:33:56 PM
I just find it funny that I can't find an ohx recap of one of the most widespread snowstorms ( jan 2010) in the past 20 years
we got 9 inches that day  January 29th 2010 all fell during day time too
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 23, 2020, 01:50:18 PM
we got 9 inches that day  January 29th 2010 all fell during day time too

Didnt you guys get dumped on not long after that with a ULL?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 23, 2020, 01:52:27 PM
anybody know where the ohx article is for the Jan 2010 storm....it was the biggest snow of my lifetime in lewis county and I cannot find the article....I measured up to 9 inches in my yard with a little freezing rain mixed in, we were shut down for 4 days

or any article for that matter for middle Tennessee?
I feel like this one is barely ever mentioned. It was a huge bust for MRX. At one point Hamilton county was the only county in their entire CWA without a winter storm warning, and at that time we already had 2-3" on the ground. Dynamic cooling saved us from a 33 degree rain. I had to drive to Greenville SC during that storm. It also busted for them, but the opposite way. GSP called for 8-12". They actually got 0.75" ZR and a half inch of sleet. Wasn't fun to drive on.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 23, 2020, 02:13:23 PM
Didnt you guys get dumped on not long after that with a ULL?
That was less than a year earlier on March 1 2009. The 40 corridor between Arlington and Jackson had over a foot with 18 inches reported in parts of Fayette Co.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on October 23, 2020, 02:33:04 PM
That was less than a year earlier on March 1 2009. The 40 corridor between Arlington and Jackson had over a foot with 18 inches reported in parts of Fayette Co.

If I were to make a Jealous List of storms I missed out on that somewhere else in the State got, that would be #1. I remember you guys updating the thread back then, the pics, the videos...it was killing me. Just hammer time. You guys also had some thunder snow with that didn't you?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on October 23, 2020, 02:51:52 PM
For some of us 2009, 2010, and 2011 was a good run. Significant snows each year, some pretty good cold, and even a Christmas night snowfall in 2010. Seems like a long time ago.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 23, 2020, 02:58:13 PM
Lol maybe Bruce? No one else I assume. I wish we had some old enough to discuss the 1951 ice and snowstorm that crippled Memphis and Nashville.
My grandparents used to talk about the ice storm of 51. My dad was 7 and he remembers it. It hit clarksville pretty good also. I remember in the 1974 ice storm that hit northern middle tn, I was 10 and there power was out everywhere for several times. My grandparents said the 74 ice storm was the worst since 1951 but that 51 was worse overall and for the midstate as a whole. The individual blades of grass were coated in ice in the 74 storm. Trees were down everywhere and I remember how the gravel in the driveway was under clear ice, you could see the rocks up under ice and it was super slick. My dad was in the hospital in nashville at the time in 74 and you could see the ice cutoff at Germantown hill, it was spectacular looking at the ice cut off the line halfway down the hill going into nashville was so defined, it was awesome looking. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 23, 2020, 04:16:00 PM
we got 9 inches that day  January 29th 2010 all fell during day time too

I remember here in lewis county it started around 9:30 HEAVY snow for 2 hours, in two hours I had 3.5 inches of snow, then moderate until about 5 pm with about 9 inches then a little freezing rain mixed in....if not for that we would have easily had a foot here and possibly more....that was the 412 corridors dream day :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 23, 2020, 04:57:35 PM
That was less than a year earlier on March 1 2009. The 40 corridor between Arlington and Jackson had over a foot with 18 inches reported in parts of Fayette Co.

Heck even my county got around 4 inches out of that system.....was a big surprise

My fav ULL was I think in 2003? I got around 8 inches of surprise snow with that one :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 23, 2020, 05:31:56 PM
I remember here in lewis county it started around 9:30 HEAVY snow for 2 hours, in two hours I had 3.5 inches of snow, then moderate until about 5 pm with about 9 inches then a little freezing rain mixed in....if not for that we would have easily had a foot here and possibly more....that was the 412 corridors dream day :)
yeah that was one my favorite snow systems , mainly cause it all fell during daytime which was like the old fashioned snow ❄️ storms used to get here . Had has a meso for the i 40 corridor that day with heavy snow rates up to 2 inches per hour said
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 23, 2020, 05:35:32 PM
That was less than a year earlier on March 1 2009. The 40 corridor between Arlington and Jackson had over a foot with 18 inches reported in parts of Fayette Co.
i got 13 inches out the ull that storm , now curt I’m not that old buddy lol .  But me being born 62 guess I’m one the older ones ... but I stay young running and going gym a lot . Lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 23, 2020, 07:11:18 PM
Western TN is definitely the sweet spot for winter weather more times than not.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 24, 2020, 10:37:14 AM
Yep. We’ll flip back cold again sometime. Some of us may get to enjoy it while others of us are dead maybe. Or maybe we are all dead when that happens, who knows.

We'll all be long gone by the time that happens. The warming pattern is here to stay due to the positive feedback loop of warming oceans and diminishing sea ice + glaciers. There's not anything in store to grant us a "Little Ice Age" like there was during the 2nd Millennium.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 24, 2020, 11:25:19 AM
We'll all be long gone by the time that happens. The warming pattern is here to stay due to the positive feedback loop of warming oceans and diminishing sea ice + glaciers. There's not anything in store to grant us a "Little Ice Age" like there was during the 2nd Millennium.
plus 1. Bingo
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 24, 2020, 11:39:26 AM
I remember a BIG ice storm in my area it was late 90's that one was fun LOL. it was at least .75 inches thick here i am gonna try to find info on it, it never gets talked about either, we were stuck for days

And i seem to remember it being around the holidays in december
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 24, 2020, 11:57:40 AM
Western TN is definitely the sweet spot for winter weather more times than not.
No way. Northeast TN averages like 3-4x as much annually as Memphis.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 24, 2020, 12:26:29 PM
No way. Northeast TN averages like 3-4x as much annually as Memphis.
No doubt. The higher elevations of East Tennessee especially over 2000 for eek out more snow showers post cold front than anywhere in the state. Most of the state is subject to high end winter storms a few times each decade- just not persistent snow showers during the winter like those elevations. Terrain means everything. The only benefit west has in elevation ironically is low elevation and CAA for Arctic air masses that bleed down from the plains. It’s actually advantageous to drain those air masses and lock them in while they usually get stuck at the Cumberland Plateau.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 24, 2020, 01:37:14 PM
No doubt. The higher elevations of East Tennessee especially over 2000 for eek out more snow showers post cold front than anywhere in the state. Most of the state is subject to high end winter storms a few times each decade- just not persistent snow showers during the winter like those elevations. Terrain means everything. The only benefit west has in elevation ironically is low elevation and CAA for Arctic air masses that bleed down from the plains. It’s actually advantageous to drain those air masses and lock them in while they usually get stuck at the Cumberland Plateau.

Agreed, cookville to crossville area just averages more because they get little 1-2 inch snows a few times per year ..... to me that is just annoyance snow...unless i can get 3-5+ inches of snow in a storm i don't want it
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 24, 2020, 02:09:23 PM
Jamestown on the plateau their all-time average is around 20 inches of snow which is equivalent to the I-70 corridor in IL/IN.  Their 30-year average is probably a decent deal lower than that because they have had some lousy winters here recently especially the last two years and several years in the 2000s. 
 
Not only the elevation but the orographic lift helps them out.
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 24, 2020, 03:23:49 PM
The 2010 /11 La Niña strength and QBO are almost identical. There has been some warming just along the Alaskan pacific coast which might be crucial to having any cold later. SST look more similar to 2017/18 but the QBO was severely negative back then. I don’t think the SST back in the Eastern Indian Ocean are near as offensive as last year. Could be a real roller coaster in these parts for temps the CFS2 more warm although the IRI has cold. Its probably a combination of the 2 which what I think will have some serious temp boundary set ups which could go for or against. One thing I’m confident in is the northern and central plains having a long cold winter. Honestly, we don’t have long sustained cold winters here. They usually hit in a 2 to 4 week window. Doesn’t take much for a “success “ down here.

CFS

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201024/1983544f387957f089d84b3e3dff4e43.jpg)
IRI
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201024/030610b581ef0a41f2d4259b65b68c8d.jpg)





Or I could be completely wrong about all of it.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 24, 2020, 03:43:41 PM
The 2010 /11 La Niña strength and QBO are almost identical. There has been some warming just along the Alaskan pacific coast which might be crucial to having any cold later. SST look more similar to 2017/18 but the QBO was severely negative back then. I don’t think the SST back in the Eastern Indian Ocean are near as offensive as last year. Could be a real roller coaster in these parts for temps the CFS2 more warm although the IRI has cold. Its probably a combination of the 2 which what I think will have some serious temp boundary set ups which could go for or against. One thing I’m confident in is the northern and central plains having a long cold winter. Honestly, we don’t have long sustained cold winters here. They usually hit in a 2 to 4 week window. Doesn’t take much for a “success “ down here.

CFS

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201024/1983544f387957f089d84b3e3dff4e43.jpg)
IRI
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201024/030610b581ef0a41f2d4259b65b68c8d.jpg)





Or I could be completely wrong about all of it.
i definitely take another 2011 severe wx type in spring of 2021.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 24, 2020, 06:27:20 PM
No way. Northeast TN averages like 3-4x as much annually as Memphis.

Lol yea the mountains. They should do better. Memphis is way far south. More NW TN where I am at. We score a lot while y’all cry lol.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 24, 2020, 08:11:19 PM
Lol yea the mountains. They should do better. Memphis is way far south. More NW TN where I am at. We score a lot while y’all cry lol.

Must be all those swamps and Dollar Generals  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Drifter on October 24, 2020, 10:09:19 PM
Must be all those swamps and Dollar Generals  ::rofl::
Definitely the dollar general’s


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Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 25, 2020, 07:30:27 AM
Some models show the La Nina dropping down to -2C which is crazy strong, but then quickly warm us up back to Neutral by early Spring.  It is one of the sharpest drops and sharpest rises I have ever seen in the models.

It should be noted that ENSO models always weaken a El-Nino or La-Nina event a lot quicker in the early Spring than reality.   

If this is true based on what we are seeing than 1998-99 and 2007-08 become top analogs with perhaps a little 1988-89 and 2010-11 flavor.   

Interestingly enough with the exception of making December a bit warmer, it wouldn't change my winter outlook that much at least in KY/TN. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 25, 2020, 08:37:19 AM
Some models show the La Nina dropping down to -2C which is crazy strong, but then quickly warm us up back to Neutral by early Spring.  It is one of the sharpest drops and sharpest rises I have ever seen in the models.

It should be noted that ENSO models always weaken a El-Nino or La-Nina event a lot quicker in the early Spring than reality.   

If this is true based on what we are seeing than 1998-99 and 2007-08 become top analogs with perhaps a little 1988-89 and 2010-11 flavor.   

Interestingly enough with the exception of making December a bit warmer, it wouldn't change my winter outlook that much at least in KY/TN.
that sharp drop off that’s what is going activate us into the severe wx pattern ... chances Are fairly high for a major large scale severe outbreak somewhere Across the south late winter into next spring . Stay tuned
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 25, 2020, 07:17:42 PM
Must be all those swamps and Dollar Generals  ::rofl::

If only the rest of the world were only swamps and dollar generals it would be a much better place!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 26, 2020, 08:07:30 PM
https://youtu.be/YwehzWN4c_g


^^ Estimated daily snow depth from 1950 - 2015
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 26, 2020, 08:13:54 PM
Refresh my memory ( i am living vicariously through past winters) But didn't mid tennessee get 2 or 3 good snow events in Jan-Feb 2011?

I seem to remember getting a few storms that year with 3-5 inches each time wide spread in mid state
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on October 26, 2020, 09:35:20 PM
Refresh my memory ( i am living vicariously through past winters) But didn't mid tennessee get 2 or 3 good snow events in Jan-Feb 2011?

I seem to remember getting a few storms that year with 3-5 inches each time wide spread in mid state
January 10th was the big one down our way with a good swath of 6-12" across southern middle TN. Hung around a full week. The other snows I recorded were all 2" or less on Dec 12, 25, and 26th, Jan 26th, and Feb 7th and 9th.

You can find excellent records going way back on the NOWData page of the NWS:
https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ohx

*I've found much of the snowfall data is missing for my nearest location, but its solid for Nashville, Clarksville, and Crossville.

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on October 29, 2020, 08:59:22 AM
Thought this was really good from BAMWX:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnnWXKVGzos&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=BAMWX
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 29, 2020, 10:22:00 AM
Thought this was really good from BAMWX:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnnWXKVGzos&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=BAMWX
great video coach... thanks for sharing I enjoyed it and watched whole thing... bout gave me a slight rise  in certain places lol... im ready
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on October 29, 2020, 11:21:32 AM
great video coach... thanks for sharing I enjoyed it and watched whole thing... bout gave me a slight rise  in certain places lol... im ready
Lord, Bruce TMI!  ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on October 29, 2020, 01:03:24 PM
great video coach... thanks for sharing I enjoyed it and watched whole thing... bout gave me a slight rise  in certain places lol... im ready

I figured you would like it, although maybe not as much as you described.  ::wow::

I was really impressed with their presentation. Obviously, they are going warm for us and gave a very well reasoned explanation. However, they touched on what could change that as well as emphasizing that cold and snow can certainly happen within an overall warm winter. I love it when weather pros take the time to explain their forecasts and are humble enough to point out what could go wrong with it or change it completely.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on October 29, 2020, 01:51:09 PM
I figured you would like it, although maybe not as much as you described.  ::wow::

I was really impressed with their presentation. Obviously, they are going warm for us and gave a very well reasoned explanation. However, they touched on what could change that as well as emphasizing that cold and snow can certainly happen within an overall warm winter. I love it when weather pros take the time to explain their forecasts and are humble enough to point out what could go wrong with it or change it completely.
They def have a well thought out presentation. The only downside is “it’s been like this since 2015” rationale. Also, I guess they’re counting on the Niña strengthening in 3.4 to >  negative 1.5. That region is still officially only moderate Nina territory. Most modeling bottoms this Niña out now and start to rapid recover to neutral by late spring. The running 3 month ONI in 2010 was negative 1.4 in September- and it bottomed out in 1.7. The latest ONI is negative 0.6 and will obviously tank in the next ONI reading.

Despite- I’ve had decent snow in 2015, 2016, 2017, a great 2018, and lackluster 2019 and 2020.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 29, 2020, 02:16:42 PM

Despite- I’ve had decent snow in 2015, 2016, 2017, a great 2018, and lackluster 2019 and 2020.

I would be happy at this point with just my standard average 6 inch snow season since I haven't had that in 9 years lol....for some reason though I am optimistic of a good 4-6 inch widespread storm this year :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: mamMATTus on October 29, 2020, 03:11:57 PM
I'm fairly disturbed over the news about arctic sea that's been released in the last couple of days. It's alarming.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 29, 2020, 03:25:11 PM
I would be happy at this point with just my standard average 6 inch snow season since I haven't had that in 9 years lol....for some reason though I am optimistic of a good 4-6 inch widespread storm this year :)
we. Haven’t averaged 6 inches of snow in quite awhile... snow averages have taken a pretty good hit for us since the 70 s
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 29, 2020, 04:57:47 PM
we. Haven’t averaged 6 inches of snow in quite awhile... snow averages have taken a pretty good hit for us since the 70 s

Whats sad is 6 is the average now because of bas seasons.....in my area average used to be 9.4 per season I remember the stat 20 years ago
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on October 29, 2020, 05:04:23 PM
Whats sad is 6 is the average now because of bas seasons.....in my area average used to be 9.4 per season I remember the stat 20 years ago

I remember when the annual snowfall average for Nashville was 11 inches. That was probably based on the 1950-1980 average.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 29, 2020, 06:37:35 PM
Sure average snowfall a year  from Memphis to Jackson is now 3 half. To 4 inches
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 29, 2020, 08:55:37 PM
I remember when the annual snowfall average for Nashville was 11 inches. That was probably based on the 1950-1980 average.

yep it was 9.4 in my town and 10-11 in nashville area....most of mid state north of hgwhy 64 corridor used to be 8-12 inch average a season which is quite a healthy season....so when people nowadays in news say it's  a rare snowstorm...well not "historically" really but recent history sucks..., just in my 34 years i have experienced at least 10-12 events of 4 inch plus snowfalls but none since 2011, the problem is the last 8-9 years have been terrible winter seasons for a lot of snow lovers
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 30, 2020, 01:17:14 AM
More snowfall average for you . Paducah averages 7 per year . Clarksville tennessee averages 5 per year  dyersburg and Jackson average 4 inches snow per. Year.  Memphis averages 3 per year
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 30, 2020, 05:59:50 AM
It would be fun to experience a 12in+ snowstorm here.  Lord everyone would lose their crap lol. Wouldn’t be able to find groceries for days with the way people are around here at the first hint of a snow. Crazy.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 30, 2020, 07:21:08 AM
It would be fun to experience a 12in+ snowstorm here.  Lord everyone would lose their crap lol. Wouldn’t be able to find groceries for days with the way people are around here at the first hint of a snow. Crazy.
I got 13 inches on February 28th 2009... heck of a storm with thunder snow, but it was totally gone in 2 days cause it was so late in winter
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 30, 2020, 08:08:05 AM
More snowfall average for you . Paducah averages 7 per year . Clarksville tennessee averages 5 per year  dyersburg and Jackson average 4 inches snow per. Year.  Memphis averages 3 per year

they have really come down over the past 15 years haven't they bruce, it used to be very common to have two events  a season of 3-5 widespread across the region
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Beth on October 30, 2020, 09:45:59 AM
The way this year has gone I would not doubt we have a ice storm then a blizzard before December 31.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on October 30, 2020, 01:15:02 PM
The last snow "storm" IMBY (4+) was 2015.  I've had a few ankle biters here and there since (some up to 2"), but most occurred overnight when I couldn't enjoy watching it descend (half the fun), and was gone a few hours after sunrise.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on October 30, 2020, 04:19:23 PM
The last snow "storm" IMBY (4+) was 2015.  I've had a few ankle biters here and there since (some up to 2"), but most occurred overnight when I couldn't enjoy watching it descend (half the fun), and was gone a few hours after sunrise.

last 4+ I had was 2011 :(
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 31, 2020, 08:14:06 AM
My last 4+ inch one was January 2018
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 31, 2020, 08:15:09 AM
The way this year has gone I would not doubt we have a ice storm then a blizzard before December 31.  ::rofl::

Then we go into January with a tornado outbreak followed by another ice storm just because 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on October 31, 2020, 08:49:00 AM
Mid to late November look interesting as the NAO/AO seem to both go into negative territory.  At the very least, it would mean below normal temps.  The last several winters seemed to be dominated by a moderate to strong positive Arctic Oscillation, especially last year.  Could we finally have a winter where they go negative and stay there for longer periods of time?  And would that override the La Nina SER enough to deliver some winter weather in our region?  And where will the cold air "dump?"  Our side of the globe, or elsewhere?  Time will tell the tale.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 31, 2020, 09:20:08 AM
Mid to late November look interesting as the NAO/AO seem to both go into negative territory.  At the very least, it would mean below normal temps.  The last several winters seemed to be dominated by a moderate to strong positive Arctic Oscillation, especially last year.  Could we finally have a winter where they go negative and stay there for longer periods of time?  And would that override the La Nina SER enough to deliver some winter weather in our region?  And where will the cold air "dump?"  Our side of the globe, or elsewhere?  Time will tell the tale.
looking like there will be a narrow window of possible negative nao... but it won’t last very long  as conditions  will go with typical modest. To strong Niña  enso
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on October 31, 2020, 02:04:56 PM
If we were to have a solidly -AO and -NAO that would override the stronger La-Nina at least to a degree.

Remember there is more to this than just a strong La-Nina.  2010-11 was a Strong La-Nina and 1917-18 was almost a Strong La-Nina, but in order for winter like those two to occur, you would need that AO and NAO to be negative. 

Probably our best situation is we keep the ridging in the Southwest have a strong northern stream and have a winter like 2007-08, 2008-09, and even 2017-18 to a degree where we are close enough to have a fighting chance. 2007-08 was actually a very solid winter for Southeastern Missouri which is pretty close to West TN.   

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 31, 2020, 04:51:15 PM
New month ... looks like the models starting hint at temps pushing 80 by late first week November going into mid month even ... 😀
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on October 31, 2020, 09:03:30 PM
If we were to have a solidly -AO and -NAO that would override the stronger La-Nina at least to a degree.

Remember there is more to this than just a strong La-Nina.  2010-11 was a Strong La-Nina and 1917-18 was almost a Strong La-Nina, but in order for winter like those two to occur, you would need that AO and NAO to be negative. 

Probably our best situation is we keep the ridging in the Southwest have a strong northern stream and have a winter like 2007-08, 2008-09, and even 2017-18 to a degree where we are close enough to have a fighting chance. 2007-08 was actually a very solid winter for Southeastern Missouri which is pretty close to West TN.

Was 17-18 a La Niña? That was a very cold winter, honestly would rather not see it get that cold.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on October 31, 2020, 10:03:13 PM
Was 17-18 a La Niña? That was a very cold winter, honestly would rather not see it get that cold.
started out La Niña but quickly translated to neutral...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on November 02, 2020, 08:38:51 AM
this is very random....has there ever been a blizzard watch/warning anywhere in the southeast
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Drifter on November 02, 2020, 08:41:45 AM
this is very random....has there ever been a blizzard watch/warning anywhere in the southeast
March 1993 Superstorm. I’m quite sure Birmingham was under one among some other places that I would have to look up.
What amazed me the most was that the national weather service offices pretty much nailed down that storm almost a week out, something that’s almost unheard of today.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on November 02, 2020, 09:19:37 AM
New month ... looks like the models starting hint at temps pushing 80 by late first week November going into mid month even ... 😀

Dang, I put my Man'kini away too soon....
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on November 02, 2020, 09:57:21 AM
Dang, I put my Man'kini away too soon....

The visual cannot be unseen. I googled and wish I hadn't.  ::doh::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: cgauxknox on November 02, 2020, 10:03:40 AM
The visual cannot be unseen. I googled and wish I hadn't.  ::doh::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 02, 2020, 10:21:12 AM
New month ... looks like the models starting hint at temps pushing 80 by late first week November going into mid month even ...
Might need to glance over they gill a bit. I don’t see anything nearing 80 even on the warm biased EURO, albeit low to mid 70’s perhaps. The same pattern we just saw with a massive HP barreling down through the central plains is going to repeat with snow and ice galore for them. It’s going to slowly push East and we cool off again with below normal temps again. It’s a nice and normal progression of the seasons.

Also the 2017-18 La Niña didn’t go neutral until summer. It was weak to moderate over the winter with a severely negative QBO. This La Niña is considered solid moderate with a positive QBO and negative PDO- almost a complete mimic of 2010 at this point.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2020, 11:31:14 AM
Might need to glance over they gill a bit. I don’t see anything nearing 80 even on the warm biased EURO, albeit low to mid 70’s perhaps. The same pattern we just saw with a massive HP barreling down through the central plains is going to repeat with snow and ice galore for them. It’s going to slowly push East and we cool off again with below normal temps again. It’s a nice and normal progression of the seasons.

Also the 2017-18 La Niña didn’t go neutral until summer. It was weak to moderate over the winter with a severely negative QBO. This La Niña is considered solid moderate with a positive QBO and negative PDO- almost a complete mimic of 2010 at this point.
that winter featured a negative nao ... not sure we going get the nao go negative this winter when it counts
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2020, 11:42:30 AM
3.4. Now down to negative 1.7 and going ... La Niña
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 02, 2020, 12:47:58 PM
that winter featured a negative nao ... not sure we going get the nao go negative this winter when it counts
No that’s not correct. The NAO was very positive for much of the winter including the cold spell and snow in January 2018. It’s easy to find this data on NCEP. Now the QBO index...that was severely negative.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201102/fe6f6c00d07059617ce28b21008d4c1b.jpg)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 02, 2020, 04:51:24 PM
March 1993 Superstorm. I’m quite sure Birmingham was under one among some other places that I would have to look up.
What amazed me the most was that the national weather service offices pretty much nailed down that storm almost a week out, something that’s almost unheard of today.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I watched old YouTube videos of that storm over the weekend.  Ah, memories.  With days like we've had lately, I wish hot tub time machines actually existed.  That would be my first stop.  And then '85 afterwards.

But, you're right.  They did get hit the target right on nearly a week out with that storm.  Pretty amazing for the early 90'.  Lately, even the almighty Euro seems to be losing it's mojo. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Matthew on November 02, 2020, 04:53:32 PM
To me this summer and fall have been perfect.  Plenty of rain but not blistering hot just humid.  Fall just right temps.  My new grass seed came up perfect. I feel good about winter.  I am thinking winter is going to be a good one.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 02, 2020, 05:00:06 PM
To me this summer and fall have been perfect.  Plenty of rain but not blistering hot just humid.  Fall just right temps.  My new grass seed came up perfect. I feel good about winter.  I am thinking winter is going to be a good one.

It has been an amazing spring, summer, and fall.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2020, 06:06:04 PM
To me this summer and fall have been perfect.  Plenty of rain but not blistering hot just humid.  Fall just right temps.  My new grass seed came up perfect. I feel good about winter.  I am thinking winter is going to be a good one.
i do like your confidence ...  saying
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 02, 2020, 07:11:05 PM
The Pacific pretty much mimics 2017 except that the Nina is stronger.   

Probably looking at a mix of 1998-99, 2007-08, and 2017-18 if that continues.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 02, 2020, 07:14:28 PM
It has been an amazing spring, summer, and fall.

No complaints overall about that.  My fall forecast is actually looking to verify pretty well or at least a whole lot better than my Summer 2020 or past two winter outlooks have. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Crockett on November 02, 2020, 10:34:49 PM
It has been an amazing spring, summer, and fall.

We had an actual spring, we've had an actual fall, and summer was very summer-like. Maybe we'll have an actual winter, too?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 04, 2020, 06:22:58 AM
The only month I would give a thumbs down to would be July, and only for the fact almost no rain fell IMBY that month, and it turned rather dry.  Thankfully, the 3 months following were wet, and the effects were minimal. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 04, 2020, 08:40:13 AM
Here is my non scientific input.  November is starting warm and going to be warm for awhile.  I think that is good, look at the past 2 Novembers that were cold, winter sucked because the pattern flipped after November.  Common sense would say that after at least a warm first half of November we should see a pattern switch by early to mid December maybe?  Seems to me weather goes in 4-6 week cycles or so.  I think sometimes there is too much effort and energy put into models and all that blah.  Just watch the patterns maybe?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on November 04, 2020, 08:45:54 AM
Yes just 10 days ago the Novie chatter was ridge west trough east. Nope!

However if the MJO can get out of those persistent warm phases (for Southeast US) maybe a pattern shift in December. Caution: I'm still not thinking 'that' cold.

My main winter pattern is that +ABNA we saw all summer. Torch north and west with near normal here. Remember the summer lows were high though. Could repeat in winter with no source region. Canada +20 makes arctic outbreaks meh.

My secondary pattern is what we are going into next week. SER galore. Might be some action in spring. I just hope it's a clean ridge in winter. I can do sunny. Warm cloudy is OK but I honestly prefer cold sun over any clouds.

Best shots at winter wx might be transitions between the two (either direction) where cold air can get in place before low press. Always difficult.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 04, 2020, 09:54:44 AM

I just hope it's a clean ridge in winter. I can do sunny. Warm cloudy is OK but I honestly prefer cold sun over any clouds.


Would have to agree.  Chilly sun beats endless dank, drizzly days in the 40's which can sometimes dominate our winters, especially in eastern areas near the mountains. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 04, 2020, 07:10:03 PM
Yes just 10 days ago the Novie chatter was ridge west trough east. Nope!

However if the MJO can get out of those persistent warm phases (for Southeast US) maybe a pattern shift in December. Caution: I'm still not thinking 'that' cold.

My main winter pattern is that +ABNA we saw all summer. Torch north and west with near normal here. Remember the summer lows were high though. Could repeat in winter with no source region. Canada +20 makes arctic outbreaks meh.

My secondary pattern is what we are going into next week. SER galore. Might be some action in spring. I just hope it's a clean ridge in winter. I can do sunny. Warm cloudy is OK but I honestly prefer cold sun over any clouds.

Best shots at winter wx might be transitions between the two (either direction) where cold air can get in place before low press. Always difficult.

Sounds very 98-99.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Michael on November 04, 2020, 07:18:17 PM
East Tennessee Winter Outlook from David Aldrich (aka “Captain Accurate”)
*scroll down on the link to his Winter Outlook. Pretty good take, I think.

http://www.captainaccurate.com/?fbclid=IwAR2JgiiY52h2_e8mYjANaHKtApo9mIo9nHGrmtAbZ2KJIMFXnUjSs_rInYg


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Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2020, 07:23:53 PM
Sounds very 98-99.   
i would take that winter repeat again in a heartbeat... nice sleet ice event first of year January 99, then little over two weeks later all **** broke loose... two big tornado outbreaks ... January 17th were a big ef4 hit Jackson that night with 17 fatalities ... then the monster tornado outbreak January 22... were Clarksville got hit really hard that night. that tornado that hit here in Jackson, was only 15 mph away from being officially a ef5 rated tornado
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: cgauxknox on November 04, 2020, 07:33:04 PM
I've seen plenty of our fellow citizens die this year already, don't need storm fatalities on top of it.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2020, 07:34:41 PM
I've seen plenty of our fellow citizens die this year already, don't need storm fatalities on top of it.
people also die in winter storms also, that's just weather... I hate it
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Crockett on November 04, 2020, 07:46:50 PM
people also die in winter storms also, that's just weather... I hate it

No you don't.

No. You. Don't.

Winter storms are a major inconvenience that sometimes involve fatalities or property damage and only deranged nuts actually wish for winter storms that cause either one. You literally cannot have severe weather without fatalities and property damage. And spare me the "I hope it happens over an open field" line. That's weak. No one has ever oohed and aahed over a weak spin-up that formed on one side of a cow pasture and lifted at the other side. People get excited by those debris signatures that are literally being created as property is being destroyed ... and accompanying property damage, inevitable, is injury or death.

Tracking severe weather and being fascinated by it when it happens is natural for any weather hobbyist. Cheerleading for severe weather to happen is fool's play.

Let's call a spade a spade. You make a lot of borderline comments about severe weather. But if you can't look at the comment you just made and see what it implies, you're crazy. You literally just said, In winter of '98-'99 we had an awesome tornado outbreak with 17 fatalities in Jackson and I'd take that again in a heartbeat." You're wishing for death and destruction when you make comments like that. Period!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 04, 2020, 08:18:05 PM
i would take that winter repeat again in a heartbeat... nice sleet ice event first of year January 99, then little over two weeks later all **** broke loose... two big tornado outbreaks ... January 17th were a big ef4 hit Jackson that night with 17 fatalities ... then the monster tornado outbreak January 22... were Clarksville got hit really hard that night. that tornado that hit here in Jackson, was only 15 mph away from being officially a ef5 rated tornado

Dang dude that’s a little cutthroat right there.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2020, 08:18:50 PM
No you don't.

No. You. Don't.

Winter storms are a major inconvenience that sometimes involve fatalities or property damage and only deranged nuts actually wish for winter storms that cause either one. You literally cannot have severe weather without fatalities and property damage. And spare me the "I hope it happens over an open field" line. That's weak. No one has ever oohed and aahed over a weak spin-up that formed on one side of a cow pasture and lifted at the other side. People get excited by those debris signatures that are literally being created as property is being destroyed ... and accompanying property damage, inevitable, is injury or death.

Tracking severe weather and being fascinated by it when it happens is natural for any weather hobbyist. Cheerleading for severe weather to happen is fool's play.

Let's call a spade a spade. You make a lot of borderline comments about severe weather. But if you can't look at the comment you just made and see what it implies, you're crazy. You literally just said, In winter of '98-'99 we had an awesome tornado outbreak with 17 fatalities in Jackson and I'd take that again in a heartbeat." You're wishing for death and destruction when you make comments like that. Period!
come on Crockett... I never have ever said that I wish that .  Was just stating a fact over a tornado that hit Madison county on January 17 on a Sunday nite year 1999 with destruction and unfortunately some fatalities... yeah there is no secret I love severe weather especially tornadoes ... hoping see a active late winter into spring next year  without the fatalities... that sound some better ? Sorry
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2020, 08:20:45 PM
Last post of the nite ... just think everyone is over the edge or just on it with the election going on ...  people are stressed out . Nite everyone  peace .
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 04, 2020, 08:57:58 PM
I can see both sides of this.

Bruce is expressing excitement for severe weather. We all know he's not wishing for anyone to die. Bruce has been on this site for 12 years now and we know him best as someone thrilled by tornadoes.

On the other hand, don't be surprised when people lash at you for wishing severe weather just for your own fascination. As we have seen in Nashville and Cookeville, tornadoes are deadly. A lot of Tennesseans have had their lives f**ked by the storms this year, and some were killed in their sleep. Some had no choice but to wait to die when they heard it coming.

And comparing winter weather fatalities to severe weather fatalities is futile. People often make the choice to drive in winter weather, and that's the vast majority of winter weather fatalities. If a strong tornado hits you, Satan penciled you in for that on that day, because you didn't put yourself there unless you wanted to die. Off the road, winter weather can only be responsible for power outages and some freak accidents.



Tl;dr. If Bruce wrote his posts better, people would be less apt to lambaste him.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on November 05, 2020, 07:21:10 AM
i would take that winter repeat again in a heartbeat... 17 fatalities

You're not right, Bruce. You are wishing for weather that kills people. That's not cool.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 05, 2020, 07:37:52 AM
You're not right, Bruce. You are wishing for weather that kills people. That's not cool.

Your quote is also a little misleading to anyone who didn't read his first post.  You altered that quote a little.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 05, 2020, 07:40:03 AM
i would take that winter repeat again in a heartbeat... nice sleet ice event first of year January 99, then little over two weeks later all **** broke loose... two big tornado outbreaks ... January 17th were a big ef4 hit Jackson that night with 17 fatalities ... then the monster tornado outbreak January 22... were Clarksville got hit really hard that night. that tornado that hit here in Jackson, was only 15 mph away from being officially a ef5 rated tornado

Here is the original post for anyone who is reading LSU's post.  Not the best but not as brutal.
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Drifter on November 05, 2020, 07:43:01 AM
Your quote is also a little misleading to anyone who didn't read his first post.  You altered that quote a little.
The ones that’s been here awhile know the way Bruce posts. Not worded the best, but I know he doesn’t wish death on anyone. He just gets excited about severe weather:


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Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 05, 2020, 07:52:53 AM
While I find severe weather exciting to track, I could do without any of it in our area anytime soon. This year has been hectic enough.

Mixing a deadly severe weather outbreak amid a pandemic and a crazy election is not what I want in our area. Our tolerance for any more chaos is minimal.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 05, 2020, 08:20:43 AM
While I find severe weather exciting to track, I could do without any of it in our area anytime soon. This year has been hectic enough.

Mixing a deadly severe weather outbreak amid a pandemic and a crazy election is not what I want in our area. Our tolerance for any more chaos is minimal.

Agree, unfortunately there is much chaos to come no matter who wins.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 05, 2020, 08:21:32 AM
Back to winter.  I am feeling that this winter will for sure be better than the past two.  I just can feel it in my bones!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on November 05, 2020, 08:48:25 AM
Back to winter.  I am feeling that this winter will for sure be better than the past two.  I just can feel it in my bones!

I am feeling a good winter event of widespread 4-6 inch snowstorm for tennesse this year :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: cgauxknox on November 05, 2020, 09:04:08 AM
I am feeling a good winter event of widespread 4-6 inch snowstorm for tennesse this year :)
::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 05, 2020, 09:19:55 AM
I am feeling a good winter event of widespread 4-6 inch snowstorm for tennesse this year :)

It will happen!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on November 05, 2020, 10:01:03 AM
ECMWF Monthly Charts are mostly warm; however, cluster analysis gives some hope. December has a minority cold cluster Southeast; but, little in the way of cold in the Arctic source.

January has a nice 500 mb break-down. 48% has Blocking plus a seasonably cold source region. Can we do that for a couple weeks?

[attachimg=2]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on November 05, 2020, 10:39:29 AM
what do you all think is worse....When we finally get an extended cold period of 10-14 days but NO moisture so it's wasted

OR plenty of moisture and a cold 38 degree rain because temps to warm
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2020, 11:14:13 AM
what do you all think is worse....When we finally get an extended cold period of 10-14 days but NO moisture so it's wasted

OR plenty of moisture and a cold 38 degree rain because temps to warm
thats a easy answer... extended period of true artic cold air no moisture be alot worse . Because we get plenty 36 to 38 degree rains ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 05, 2020, 11:29:01 AM
ECMWF Monthly Charts are mostly warm; however, cluster analysis gives some hope. December has a minority cold cluster Southeast; but, little in the way of cold in the Arctic source.

January has a nice 500 mb break-down. 48% has Blocking plus a seasonably cold source region. Can we do that for a couple weeks?

(Attachment Link)
I’ve almost given up in the long range EURO. The 46 day forecast - from 46 days ago- was so awful and skewed warm. In contrast, the CFS2 is now cold from the Rockies eastward for the Dec-Feb time frame. Just about every La Niña- even strong ones- have periods of arctic outbreaks. The dreadful 98-99- which followed the Super El Niño - had a brutal winter storm right before Christmas. I have a hard time buying that analog since it was a strong La Niña right after a super El Niño and with a negative QBO. The less strong the La Niña, the better chances of more arctic outbreaks.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 05, 2020, 02:31:19 PM
thats a easy answer... extended period of true artic cold air no moisture be alot worse . Because we get plenty 36 to 38 degree rains ...

I disagree. I like a deep freeze in our region, and they're usually accompanied by abundant sunshine. Consistent cold rain and with snow just out of reach is depressing to me.

But Tennessee is a rainy state, and this is what keeps our hills green.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 06, 2020, 03:33:54 AM
The euro seasonal s now showing not only above normal  but. Much above normal pretty much through December  temps wise ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on November 06, 2020, 10:46:02 AM
The much anticipated drop in the QBO failed. Just cut off like it did earlier in the 20-teens. Sun woke up too. Cancel winter.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 06, 2020, 01:38:41 PM
Life goes on.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 06, 2020, 05:12:21 PM
I'm not interested in participating in a doom and gloom chat about the lack of winter in November.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 06, 2020, 05:17:29 PM
The much anticipated drop in the QBO failed. Just cut off like it did earlier in the 20-teens. Sun woke up too. Cancel winter.
Not necessarily. It will take some time to dig out of a low solar. And keep in mind, 2010-2011 QBO was highly positive then too- and actually nearly identical in its rise to 2021.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 07, 2020, 08:03:19 AM
We have a decent to a good chance at a winter storm or major winter storm this upcoming winter if you can accept the fact it may be more of a wintry mix or even an ice storm instead of pure snow. 

La Nina's tend to feature an above-average chance of a March Hail-Mary so we might have reasonable hope for that as well.   

Lets face it the past two Modoki Weak El-Nino's stunk so we might as well try something different.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 07, 2020, 08:09:16 AM
We have a decent to a good chance at a winter storm or major winter storm this upcoming winter if you can accept the fact it may be more of a wintry mix or even an ice storm instead of pure snow. 

La Nina's tend to feature an above-average chance of a March Hail-Mary so we might have reasonable hope for that as well.   

Lets face it the past two Modoki Weak El-Nino's stunk so we might as well try something different.
can always remember when we were heading toward a weak el nino, i would get so excited... those used to be the best winters for us if you like snow and cold... and those winters were fun and i loved them. i have become so jaded about winter i dont even worry about it hardly anymore. this climate change is killing our winters as a whole pretty much across the globe.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: nrgJeff on November 07, 2020, 12:22:58 PM
The much anticipated drop in the QBO failed. Just cut off like it did earlier in the 20-teens. Sun woke up too. Cancel winter.

Not necessarily. It will take some time to dig out of a low solar. And keep in mind, 2010-2011 QBO was highly positive then too- and actually nearly identical in its rise to 2021.

I sharply disagree with the 2010-11 logic. That year followed cold years. If the deep solar minimum winters just failed, increased solar activity ain't bullish.

As for +QBO it is still rising after the drop failed 18 months ago. I'm not really cancelling winter; it's early. However none of the evidence above is helpful.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 07, 2020, 05:06:15 PM
I am debating on whether to keep my Winter Outlook especially for December or just go straight 1998-99 or 2019-20 and torch the entire USA. 

The very low amount of sea ice for this time of year in the arctic is going to be very concerning, might increase the strength of the polar vortex (meaning cold Alaska/North Pole and no one else), and the strong La Nina will pump up both SE and SW ridges.  Those ridges may at times merge like a summer heat wave.

Right now I will keep the Northern Plains colder than average because the active northern stream of a strong La Nina will probably kick in at times. 

Like 1998-99 this doesn't mean that we won't probably have a quick-hitting 2-4 week period sometime that could have winter potential especially of the ice form but other than that we are looking warm and very prone to tornado outbreaks.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 07, 2020, 05:38:49 PM
 ::coffee::
I am debating on whether to keep my Winter Outlook especially for December or just go straight 1998-99 or 2019-20 and torch the entire USA. 

The very low amount of sea ice for this time of year in the arctic is going to be very concerning, might increase the strength of the polar vortex (meaning cold Alaska/North Pole and no one else), and the strong La Nina will pump up both SE and SW ridges.  Those ridges may at times merge like a summer heat wave.

Right now I will keep the Northern Plains colder than average because the active northern stream of a strong La Nina will probably kick in at times. 

Like 1998-99 this doesn't mean that we won't probably have a quick-hitting 2-4 week period sometime that could have winter potential especially of the ice form but other than that we are looking warm and very prone to tornado outbreaks.
::coffee::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on November 07, 2020, 07:11:57 PM
lol gotta love these insane tn weather....refresh my memory but wasn't november last year quite cold? And now this year it might as well be spring break weather....i actually hate it to be this warm during holiday seasons
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 08, 2020, 07:00:50 AM
Record-setting La-Nina.  The quick bounce back is very likely overdone as it always is with both Nina's and Nino's

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 08, 2020, 07:22:09 AM
Outside of the North Cascades, which will likely have a blockbuster winter most of the US and Southern Canada is probably looking at a dud outside of probably a pretty good 3-4 week period which should probably occur sometime in or around the heart of January.   

I have completely backed off a cold December just because we won't have time to build a substantial cold air reservoir in that area. My hope is that this record-setting La-Nina allows for the arctic to have some very short-term healing in the future.  Of course, the long-term impacts of it are battling climate change.  Due to the rapid strengthening of the La-Nina, which will be the main control of the winter plus the sad state of the arctic, I will be posting and I promise it will be the final outlook.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 08, 2020, 08:19:03 AM
Outside of the North Cascades, which will likely have a blockbuster winter most of the US and Southern Canada is probably looking at a dud outside of probably a pretty good 3-4 week period which should probably occur sometime in or around the heart of January.   

I have completely backed off a cold December just because we won't have time to build a substantial cold air reservoir in that area. My hope is that this record-setting La-Nina allows for the arctic to have some very short-term healing in the future.  Of course, the long-term impacts of it are battling climate change.  Due to the rapid strengthening of the La-Nina, which will be the main control of the winter plus the sad state of the arctic, I will be posting and I promise it will be the final outlook.
this. Niña isn’t playing around . Models under estimated it bad... all the severe weather experts I know on line talk to or really sounding the alarm toward late winter into late this winter and early next spring ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 08, 2020, 12:10:16 PM
12" plus at the house and counting in South Lake Tahoe. 3-5" of QPF over the next 10 days forecast. 60-100" of snow likely above 6000ft by hour 240
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 08, 2020, 01:47:45 PM
The fact that the current pattern has similarities to 2006-07 La Nina isn't something I'm fond of.  After a mild and dry winter that year, we had a dry spring with a late April freeze followed by an intense summer drought.

Hopefully, this won't be history repeating itself. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 08, 2020, 02:04:09 PM
The fact that the current pattern has similarities to 2006-07 La Nina isn't something I'm fond of.  After a mild and dry winter that year, we had a dry spring with a late April freeze followed by an intense summer drought.

Hopefully, this won't be history repeating itself.
think goodness it’s not quite top 3 analog . We don’t need another extreme drought next summer
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 08, 2020, 02:19:32 PM
The fact that the current pattern has similarities to 2006-07 La Nina isn't something I'm fond of.  After a mild and dry winter that year, we had a dry spring with a late April freeze followed by an intense summer drought.

Hopefully, this won't be history repeating itself.

2006-07 was one of those El-Nino's that acted like a La-Nina.  2006-07 is actually very similar to 2018-19 in some ways except the cold shot that happened in Feb 2007 occurred in the East while the cold shot that happened in Feb 2019 occurred in the West/Upper Midwest.   

Really this winter is probably a mix between 1998-99 and 2017-18 with some 2007-08 thrown in at times.  We start off with a mild and drier period from now till around Christmas, have a pretty potent cold shot with some winter weather/ice threats (especially West and North TN westward to I-44) sometime between Christmas and Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and then go into a battleground zone pattern starting late January to Early April.  We might have some hail-mary winter threats and perhaps an ice threat for NW TN, but heavy rain and severe weather are going to be the main ones. The Pacific NW is going to get drilled during that late Jan-April period. 

We will have a very intense severe weather season, but the good news is that it will probably be fairly short-lived and may not last too long into April.  In which, either central ridging/drought forms and storm chasing season is essentially shut down nationwide or the southeast ridge rages on and pushes the main threat to the Plains and Upper Midwest.  I'm thinking a 2002, 2006 or 2012 type of severe weather season but potentially even more intense.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 08, 2020, 02:21:28 PM
12" plus at the house and counting in South Lake Tahoe. 3-5" of QPF over the next 10 days forecast. 60-100" of snow likely above 6000ft by hour 240

Winter sports-wise the North Cascades down to Stevens Pass is where it is going to be at.  Too bad the virus has the border shut down because Whistler is probably going to have an epic year. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 08, 2020, 02:28:42 PM
2006-07 was one of those El-Nino's that acted like a La-Nina.  2006-07 is actually very similar to 2018-19 in some ways except the cold shot that happened in Feb 2007 occurred in the East while the cold shot that happened in Feb 2019 occurred in the West/Upper Midwest.   

Really this winter is probably a mix between 1998-99 and 2017-18 with some 2007-08 thrown in at times.  We start off with a mild and drier period from now till around Christmas, have a pretty potent cold shot with some winter weather/ice threats (especially West and North TN westward to I-44) sometime between Christmas and Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and then go into a battleground zone pattern starting late January to Early April.  We might have some hail-mary winter threats and perhaps an ice threat for NW TN, but heavy rain and severe weather are going to be the main ones. The Pacific NW is going to get drilled during that late Jan-April period. 

We will have a very intense severe weather season, but the good news is that it will probably be fairly short-lived and may not last too long into April.  In which, either central ridging/drought forms and storm chasing season is essentially shut down nationwide or the southeast ridge rages on and pushes the main threat to the Plains and Upper Midwest.  I'm thinking a 2002, 2006 or 2012 type of severe weather season but potentially even more intense.   
2006 April was pretty intense  severe weather wise . We had a 60 percent tornado chance on one system .
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 08, 2020, 04:23:25 PM
Winter sports-wise the North Cascades down to Stevens Pass is where it is going to be at.  Too bad the virus has the border shut down because Whistler is probably going to have an epic year.

Yeah, Washington is going to get the goods. It just has to be cold as most of the resorts are at "lower" elevation. Crystal Mountain , Snowqualmie, Stephens Pass, Mt Baker will all gets the goods for sure. I plan on spending a week up there as some point. If Canada opens I am heading to Revelstoke, usually much better snow conditions. Still waiting for enough snow in Nashville to ski the golf course again. Its been a good 10 years.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 08, 2020, 05:27:26 PM
Yeah, Washington is going to get the goods. It just has to be cold as most of the resorts are at "lower" elevation. Crystal Mountain , Snowqualmie, Stephens Pass, Mt Baker will all gets the goods for sure. I plan on spending a week up there as some point. If Canada opens I am heading to Revelstoke, usually much better snow conditions. Still waiting for enough snow in Nashville to ski the golf course again. Its been a good 10 years.

Curt mentions the QBO and that is going to be an important factor.  1998-99 that pacific jet was ripping across the area.  That was great for Steven's Pass and Mt. Baker but horrible for the lower elevations as Arctic air was quickly replaced by Pacific air.  That jet along with the general La-Nina pattern was what set up the active severe weather of that winter.   

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 08, 2020, 05:32:33 PM
While we are on the topic and have this love affair with 1998-99, the events of December 23rd-24th of that winter go to show that even with a warm and unfavorable winter you can still get popped in the mouth by a winter storm. 

Areas especially south of and east of Nashville got absolutely rocked by freezing rain and sleet that even rivaled 1994 in some areas. We don't talk about that one so much because the tornado outbreaks of the following month outshined it, but that was a potent event.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on November 08, 2020, 05:47:21 PM
While we are on the topic and have this love affair with 1998-99, the events of December 23rd-24th of that winter go to show that even with a warm and unfavorable winter you can still get popped in the mouth by a winter storm. 

Areas especially south of and east of Nashville got absolutely rocked by freezing rain and sleet that even rivaled 1994 in some areas. We don't talk about that one so much because the tornado outbreaks of the following month outshined it, but that was a potent event.   

I cannot find articles on it but it was EASILY the worst ice storm i have ever been involved in, we had at least an inch of freezing rain here in lewis county , we called it our crystal christmas, it just exists in my memory only because i cannot find anything on it to read lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 08, 2020, 06:30:09 PM
While we are on the topic and have this love affair with 1998-99, the events of December 23rd-24th of that winter go to show that even with a warm and unfavorable winter you can still get popped in the mouth by a winter storm. 

Areas especially south of and east of Nashville got absolutely rocked by freezing rain and sleet that even rivaled 1994 in some areas. We don't talk about that one so much because the tornado outbreaks of the following month outshined it, but that was a potent event.   
by far the 98 99 winter. That stood out to me was the potent deadly tornado outbreaks  across the midsouth ... wild winter it was
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 08, 2020, 10:51:49 PM
Curt mentions the QBO and that is going to be an important factor.  1998-99 that pacific jet was ripping across the area.  That was great for Steven's Pass and Mt. Baker but horrible for the lower elevations as Arctic air was quickly replaced by Pacific air.  That jet along with the general La-Nina pattern was what set up the active severe weather of that winter.

Below 4000ft is usually pretty dicey. Most base elevations are not even about 850mb. Getting further south into the sierras we get based elevations from 6500-8000ft. Makes a big difference for sure. Common for rain at lake level and it be dumping mid mountain up. The next couple weeks are going to be insane. I have to work in PHX next week and then drive to LA. I will likely fly to Reno or drive from there and head back up to the lake. GFS and Euro are both very bullish on 2 storms next week. Major QPF output being shown.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 09, 2020, 12:53:50 PM
I'm thinking a 2002, 2006 or 2012 type of severe weather season but potentially even more intense.   

No 2011, please.  Not after a year like this one. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 09, 2020, 01:23:08 PM
Ya'll are cracking me up thinking you might have a clue what will happen months from now!  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 09, 2020, 01:31:37 PM
Ya'll are cracking me up thinking you might have a clue what will happen months from now!  ::rofl::

We do have clues- they're called analogs. For example, a La Niña winter is likely to be followed by enhanced tornadic activity in the spring.

No one's acting like we know what will happen. We're taking hints from ENSO and previous seasons. Conjectures about the weather are a hobby for many of us.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Crockett on November 09, 2020, 02:00:32 PM
We do have clues- they're called analogs. For example, a La Niña winter is likely to be followed by enhanced tornadic activity in the spring.

No one's acting like we know what will happen. We're taking hints from ENSO and previous seasons. Conjectures about the weather are a hobby for many of us.

Imagine...discussing the weather on a weather forum.  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: cgauxknox on November 09, 2020, 02:06:51 PM
Maybe we should take a vote on what to talk about. Nothing could possibly go wrong with just casting ballots and then counting them to arrive at a decision... ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: cliftown04 on November 09, 2020, 02:10:31 PM
I’m hoping this forum improves this winter. Surely we can agree about weather or else what in the world are you here for. The virus and politics has hit this board hard. This place was first class for years! I’m talking professional meteorologists, arm chair experts, and weather nerds!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 09, 2020, 02:16:02 PM
I am feeling a white Christmas will happen this year.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 09, 2020, 02:23:53 PM
I am feeling a white Christmas will happen this year.
all depends what you mean by saying white Christmas . Been a white Christmas for me last few years ... >  >:D
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on November 09, 2020, 02:37:14 PM
I’m hoping this forum improves this winter. Surely we can agree about weather or else what in the world are you here for. The virus and politics has hit this board hard. This place was first class for years! I’m talking professional meteorologists, arm chair experts, and weather nerds!

yes PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!! By now we all know where we stand on things, this IS a weather forum and occasionally some football talk :) , lets keep it that way
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 09, 2020, 05:52:57 PM
all depends what you mean by saying white Christmas . Been a white Christmas for me last few years ... >  >:D

Unless this is a sexual innuendo, I really don't get this one...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: cgauxknox on November 09, 2020, 06:08:19 PM
Unless this is a sexual innuendo, I really don't get this one...
Pretty sure he's talking about cocaine, which would explain his occasional bursts of frenzied excitement.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 09, 2020, 06:50:05 PM
Pretty sure he's talking about cocaine, which would explain his occasional bursts of frenzied excitement.  ::shrug::
yeah but it’s all a joke people  chill. Lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 09, 2020, 07:12:21 PM
Pretty sure he's talking about cocaine, which would explain his occasional bursts of frenzied excitement.  ::shrug::

Ooooohhhh.

Welp. This is how you know I wasn't around in the 80s!
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 10, 2020, 11:13:33 AM
Hmm moving away from the white Christmas topic...

First, state of ENSO - region 3.4 warmed a bit to 1.5. It’s the coldest part of the pacific. Most changes in the pacific have occurred there while some warming has actually been noted in the east Pac or region 1.2. Not sure how much more this La Niña will go- perhaps it sinks more but looks to be stabilized for now. Most modeling has it bottoming out close to now through the end of year. It’s well worth noting the North Pacific in the gulf of Alaska is anomalously warm. It’s further East this year although more warm off the west coast than.

I’ve been looking over some sea surface temp anomalies for other moderate to even strong La Niñas over the last 30 years. It’s really hard to find one that doesn’t have a cold North Pacific. I’m still looking for anything remotely close. Fall if 2017 perhaps although that La Niña didn’t seem to have the  basin wide presence this one has. 1998-99 strength of the Niña is similar- but wow at the cold Ne Pac vs where it is now. I think the general idea is how close the warm pool can push along the coast. It seems to affect where the ridge and trough set up - and subsequently where it ends up in the CONUS. Does it set up in the West only or does it set up even just a tad further east allowing cold air masses to push.  If the warm pool gets too far west like last year, the trough never really sets up consistently into the East.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 10, 2020, 02:15:42 PM
all depends what you mean by saying white Christmas . Been a white Christmas for me last few years ... >  >:D

Lord, Bruce. TMI.  Again. But I couldn't help but laugh.  You are crazy. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 10, 2020, 02:25:39 PM
Lord, Bruce. TMI.  Again. But I couldn't help but laugh.  You are crazy.
just little humor on what has been a stressful year ... :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on November 11, 2020, 08:51:40 AM
from Judah Cohen: ::blowtorch::
Quote
Cancel #winter! Now that I have your attention, first I wouldn't cancel winter second week of November but the predicted pattern has almost no redeeming qualities if you are a winter weather enthusiast, ridging in the ocean basins, no high-latitude blocking & strong #polarvortex.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1326527950959882241
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 11, 2020, 09:10:14 AM
from Judah Cohen: ::blowtorch::
https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1326527950959882241

It's going to be an interesting winter to watch.  So much and many people pointing to a warm winter.  Be interesting to see if they actually get it right or not.  It's ole mother nature we are talking about, she may have a big curveball coming???

My winter interests are pretty selfish, just need it to be cold and snow to about St. Louis really.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on November 11, 2020, 11:52:37 AM
from Judah Cohen: ::blowtorch::
https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1326527950959882241

Meh, Judah has been about as accurate in calling winters as election or pandemic modelers.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 11, 2020, 01:28:54 PM
Meh, Judah has been about as accurate in calling winters as election or pandemic modelers.
yeah. But if the la
Niña going to be strong as there seeing it. It will be a easy call. Appears to be heading that direction unfortunately
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 11, 2020, 07:05:30 PM
Try this analog for size:

1889-1890.  The warmest winter of the 19th century, extreme tornado events in January-March centered over the Mid-South/Ohio Valley, a very strong La-Nina, and the last time we had a suspected widespread coronavirus pandemic.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 11, 2020, 07:31:51 PM
Try this analog for size:

1889-1890.  The warmest winter of the 19th century, extreme tornado events in January-March centered over the Mid-South/Ohio Valley, a very strong La-Nina, and the last time we had a suspected widespread coronavirus pandemic.
were is the double  like  button at ... without the stupid virus of course
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Crockett on November 12, 2020, 09:58:52 AM
were is the double  like  button at ... without the stupid virus of course

Well, ****, just throw the virus in there too. If we're rooting for extreme tornado outbreaks we might as well be rooting for a few more tens of thousands coronavirus deaths to just really ratchet up the chaos!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 12, 2020, 10:01:28 AM
This La Niña isn’t going play around ... wish I could paste the graphic . Won’t let me.  But wow
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on November 12, 2020, 10:11:36 AM
Well, ****, just throw the virus in there too. If we're rooting for extreme tornado outbreaks we might as well be rooting for a few more tens of thousands coronavirus deaths to just really ratchet up the chaos!

I think he was just talking about the excitement of tracking severe weather not wishing for bad things on people?
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2020, 03:09:38 PM
This La Niña isn’t going play around ... wish I could paste the graphic . Won’t let me.  But wow
This La Niña isn’t going play around ... wish I could paste the graphic . Won’t let me.  But wow
Not really. There is nothing that different from other moderate - strong La Ninas according to SST maps- except the northeast Pacific. The November 1988/2010 La Niña was stronger at this point and that’s obvious from the pic:

November 1988
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201112/ba5fa359260db50fa6e806657c976354.jpg)



November 1998
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201112/44fb441e0c54d49ff79cf3a1fdac9f6b.jpg)

November 2010
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201112/51adf6e05b903b16a1a3b6ad795d712a.jpg)

Edit to add November 2017

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201112/7281ce9559b3d8c7bb16c6cf309e5269.jpg)



November 2020
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201112/ddb62d70042f77d8f7cd340cb9ca753c.jpg)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2020, 04:14:31 PM
That warm pool in the North Pacific is just weird.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2020, 04:46:45 PM
That warm pool in the North Pacific is just weird.

Yeah and good luck finding anything close to it in the satellite era- there's not. Most La Nina's have a cold pool in the NE PAC- and maybe this one develops a cold pool over the winter who knows. Doesn't look likely at this point since its so ridiculous warm there. A warm pool along the NA west coast generally argues for HP or the western ridge to set up in a position that allows more cold air to dump central and east. If its too far west the ridge sets up for the west to get the cold air and we get the SER. Right now its not along the coast but not as far west as it was last year. You can always bet La Nina's will have brutal cold in Canada available unless the ridge and trough get too far west too benefit anyone in Tennessee. Most of these winters while having some brutal cold periods were also had lots of warm periods. So even if the overall 4 month winter period averages warm, the "back and forth" of the ridge and trough leads to the cold from Canada being dumped down into our area at times. (I also added November 2017 SST anomalies to the previous post- there is more of a warm pool in the NE PAC).

Moderate to strong Nina's almost all have at least some periods- emphasize periods- of arctic air and a winter storm threat. Some but not all have severe too.

Winter 1988-89: Brutal cold period in Feb and then again in early March with a sleet storm mostly Arkansas and West TN. Little severe winter or spring

Winter 1998-99: pre Christmas ice storm and brutal cold in early January followed by a sharp reverse to warm and a 2 tornado outbreaks in Arkansas and the west half of Tennessee- as Bruce has reminded us over and over again.

Winter 2010-11: multiple winter storms in Jan and Feb with record cold followed by a severe spring and record MS River flood

Winter 2017-18: brutal cold mid Dec to mid Jan with back to back winter storms mostly west and north middle. Little to no severe.

So while Bruce is salivating over severe weather, this data shows one size doesn't fit all. Yes there are increased possibilities of cold and winter threats AND severe but nothing is guaranteed.

 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: bugalou on November 12, 2020, 05:58:06 PM
That warm pool in the North Pacific is just weird.
IMO and no I haven't done the calculations on it, but that warm patch may very well be more and more related to all the garbage, particularly plastics creating an ever deepening layer of semi buoyant debris that absorb much more solar energy than water.  Its going to become a semi permanent feature - watch.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 13, 2020, 04:47:36 AM
IMO and no I haven't done the calculations on it, but that warm patch may very well be more and more related to all the garbage, particularly plastics creating an ever deepening layer of semi buoyant debris that absorb much more solar energy than water.  Its going to become a semi permanent feature - watch.

That is a hypothesis worth exploring.   

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 13, 2020, 04:57:36 AM
Right now my updated Winter Thoughts don't have the time to make a map.

December:  Calm, warm, zonal flow dominated.  Probably a bit drier than normal but may have a cold shot or a flip somewhere during the last 5-10 days of the month. If that does occur there is a winter storm threat potentially. 

Analogs: 1998, 2007, 2017


January:  The classic La-Nina month with a battleground zone.  Our area especially west of I-65 and north of I-40 probably bounces between air masses.  East TN and South TN remain warm but still could get some cold shots and a sneaky winter threat.  The ice storm threat is probably the highest this month.  Can't also rule out a severe weather/heavy rain threat or two.  Looks average across NW TN temp wise and above-average elsewhere but changeable.   

Analogs 1974, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2009

February:  The first half resembles January and the second half is a pure blowtorch.  The biggest severe weather threat month.  Could be a winter storm threat early on as cold air retreats (think freezing rain to rain kinda event).  Depending on how strong the blowtorch is could be a Top 10 or even Top 5 warmest month on record statewide.   

Analogs 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2009, 2011, 2017, 2018
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 13, 2020, 09:18:11 AM
I'm still sticking to my guns. I think some of us on the board will see some flakes flying by week 2 of December.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Drifter on November 13, 2020, 09:29:22 AM
Right now my updated Winter Thoughts don't have the time to make a map.

December:  Calm, warm, zonal flow dominated.  Probably a bit drier than normal but may have a cold shot or a flip somewhere during the last 5-10 days of the month. If that does occur there is a winter storm threat potentially. 

Analogs: 1998, 2007, 2017


January:  The classic La-Nina month with a battleground zone.  Our area especially west of I-65 and north of I-40 probably bounces between air masses.  East TN and South TN remain warm but still could get some cold shots and a sneaky winter threat.  The ice storm threat is probably the highest this month.  Can't also rule out a severe weather/heavy rain threat or two.  Looks average across NW TN temp wise and above-average elsewhere but changeable.   

Analogs 1974, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2009

February:  The first half resembles January and the second half is a pure blowtorch.  The biggest severe weather threat month.  Could be a winter storm threat early on as cold air retreats (think freezing rain to rain kinda event).  Depending on how strong the blowtorch is could be a Top 10 or even Top 5 warmest month on record statewide.   

Analogs 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2009, 2011, 2017, 2018
I know it’s a Tennessee forum, but I’m living in southern Indiana until next summer, Seymour to be exact. Halfway between Louisville and Indianapolis. Would you be so kind to give some quick thoughts on this area? I expect it to be not much different than what you’re projecting for Tennessee.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 13, 2020, 09:38:39 AM
Credit to NOAA's website.

 ::coffee::

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 14, 2020, 08:17:17 AM
Quote
I know it’s a Tennessee forum, but I’m living in southern Indiana until next summer, Seymour to be exact. Halfway between Louisville and Indianapolis. Would you be so kind to give some quick thoughts on this area? I expect it to be not much different than what you’re projecting for Tennessee.

They may be a bit more favorable in January-Early February but the rest of it is about the same.  Being more towards SE Indiana hurts in a Nina year since a lot of storms and their impacts move Southwest to Northeast.  Meaning instead of being in the same boat that say St. Louis is in you are more so in the same boat that say Dyersburg, TN or Hopkinsville, KY is in.  The only difference is you may be prone to getting a clipper system or two that KY and TN doesn't get. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: bugalou on November 14, 2020, 11:58:06 AM
That is a hypothesis worth exploring.
Coming soon, Hurricanes in Cali!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 14, 2020, 07:24:48 PM
Coming soon, Hurricanes in Cali!

I am working on a fictional short story in 2021, that features a major blizzard across Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky, West and Western Middle Tennesse,  Southeast Missouri, and then into Indiana.  It also includes a fictional tornado outbreak across Georgia, Florida Panhandle, and into the Carolinas and a high wind event for everyone else. 

Why not add hurricanes to California in that.  I believe San Diego was hit by a tropical system in the 1800s perhaps so not too far from reality.  Not quite as crazy as Memphis getting 33 inches of snow with 80MPH wind gusts in the story and some areas of Southeastern Arkansas seeing 30 inches of snow.     

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 14, 2020, 08:03:56 PM
I am working on a fictional short story in 2021, that features a major blizzard across Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky, West and Western Middle Tennesse,  Southeast Missouri, and then into Indiana. 

Hey now, show some snow love for your friends in east TN.  ;)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 14, 2020, 08:39:43 PM
Hey now, show some snow love for your friends in east TN.  ;)
it must going be a major apps runner Jaycee... lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 15, 2020, 03:05:22 PM
At this point, I think this winter will be unpredictable--like most things these days.  Yes, we have a moderate to strong La Nina.  But we also have very warm water in the northeast Pacific. Normally, the two don't coincide. It seems we'll have periods of unusual warmth, but periods of cold mixed in.  When the pattern changes, watch out! A strong winter storm will ride the dividing line.  Right now, I would put west and middle TN in the best chance of seeing snow and ice when the pattern flips.  East TN may see their best chance of winter weather right after the flip if we can get at decent storm to come out of the Gulf.  Changeable would be the best description. Some days in the 70's, followed by a few barely above freezing.
It's obvious the climate is in a state of flux. Seasons don't follow the normal patterns.  We have autumns that are hot, followed by springs that are cold. 2020 is the first year in a long time that seemed "normal," despite the previous years of weather extremes.  But, I think this winter is treading new ground.  There are few, if any, analogs where we had a strong La Nina with warm water in the North Pacific.  Unusual patterns create unusual weather.  We'll just have to learn as we go.  I think there is a country song that says the same thing, but this year has been far from a dance.   ::blowtorch:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 15, 2020, 06:09:30 PM
I do think we have a short-lived period of true winter during this winter season. If we can squeak in a Strat Warming event with the active normal stream a period like that would likely open up sometime between New Years and Valentine's Day. 

La-Nina climo and analogs definitely support such a timeframe.  It would probably last 3-4 weeks at best, but that would be better than the last two winters.  The late January 2009 timeframe or the late December 98 to about the first 10 days or so of 1999 are about what we would be looking at.  Our risk of a winter storm and especially a ice storm would be probably above average at that time.   

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 16, 2020, 02:04:29 PM
Our current northern pacific pattern this month is matching up with the November of 98 pretty
Nicely ...  be interesting see were we go from here .
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 16, 2020, 02:45:04 PM
Thanks to all who have been contributing to this thread. I appreciate it. Many of you are inadvertently helping me learn about our climate and how to use analogs in weather forecasting.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Eric on November 16, 2020, 03:07:16 PM
Thanks to all who have been contributing to this thread. I appreciate it. Many of you are inadvertently helping me learn about our climate and how to use analogs in weather forecasting.

Singular best tip about using analogs in winter?

Don't use them.  Trying to nail down winter in Tennessee is like trying to hit a knuckle-slurve when you're expecting a fastball.  Teleconnections can give you a general idea - la nina, el nino, MJO, etc - but trying to use them for anything more than generalities is a wasted effort.  Three different sections dominate the state and all three carry vastly different climatological identities during the winter months.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 16, 2020, 03:09:52 PM
Our current northern pacific pattern this month is matching up with the November of 98 pretty
Nicely ...  be interesting see were we go from here .

No its not. I posted some maps last week that show some significant differences. The 98-99 La Nina at THIS time was warner east and colder west with a MUCH colder NE Pacific. The current La Nina is basin wide but coldest in the central region (3.4) than the others. In fact, the latest index for 3.4 warmed to -1.0 which is a significant change from the -1.7 a few weeks ago. The entire basin warmed in fact over the last week although keeping in mind that can change, too. A significant difference from almost all moderate- strong La Nina's is the ridiculous warm pool in the NE Pac. 2017-18 had one but nothing as warm as it is currently. If there's more warming over the next couple of weeks, this La Nina might start declining. We will have to see where it goes. The warming this week was significant though.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 16, 2020, 03:18:00 PM
No its not. I posted some maps last week that show some significant differences. The 98-99 La Nina at THIS time was warner east and colder west with a MUCH colder NE Pacific. The current La Nina is basin wide but coldest in the central region (3.4) than the others. In fact, the latest index for 3.4 warmed to -1.0 which is a significant change from the -1.7 a few weeks ago. The entire basin warmed in fact over the last week although keeping in mind that can change, too. A significant difference from almost all moderate- strong La Nina's is the ridiculous warm pool in the NE Pac. 2017-18 had one but nothing as warm as it is currently. If there's more warming over the next couple of weeks, this La Nina might start declining. We will have to see where it goes. The warming this week was significant though.
must be looking at wrong maps  Curt  seriously
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 16, 2020, 03:25:49 PM
must be looking at wrong maps  Curt  seriously
Seriously- these are all from NOAA:

November 1998
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201116/7f170d6105fb0ebda1d20fa92242e9a8.jpg)


Current 2020
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201116/e58d6b9941d0c1bff8025b716b7d792e.jpg)

Changes over the last week
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201116/0e432cab5470f4fb75654651c95b3acd.jpg)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Crockett on November 16, 2020, 03:47:17 PM
must be looking at wrong maps  Curt  seriously

Or maybe he just isn't blinded by an effort to wish-cast record warmth and severe weather outbreaks.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 16, 2020, 07:48:32 PM
See I posted a merit post... I get bashed. Lol people will see what this winter will be analog to. Not going worry or argue bout it.  Get used to warmer winters anyways due to big climate change taking over . Yeah I went there... 98 99 top analog this winter up coming
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 16, 2020, 10:18:45 PM
See I posted a merit post... I get bashed. Lol people will see what this winter will be analog to. Not going worry or argue bout it.  Get used to warmer winters anyways due to big climate change taking over . Yeah I went there... 98 99 top analog this winter up coming
No, I posted facts that were contrary to your anecdote. A thorough and productive discussion of your opinion would have been preferred.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 17, 2020, 04:18:27 AM
The strong Polar Vortex may be more of a problem for us than the Pacific.  contrary to the media, when you have a strong Polar Vortex especially one centered in Northern Siberia that acts to lock the cold air in the place and floods the mid-latitudes with Pacific air instead yuck!  These unusually strong PV's of the past 2 years may be a result of melting arctic ice in the past few years but I'm not fully sure.

If we can have a strat warming event or something comes through and causes it to buckle say next month or Early January then we would have a reservoir of cold arctic air to play with potentially.   When factored in with the La-Nina could create quite the battlezone for our area when and if that does occur.   


If it doesn't than we may resemble last winter more than we would like.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 17, 2020, 05:17:16 AM
I imagine that at least the first 3 weeks of December will probably be mild and dry with no major weather events.  Pretty much copy and paste from November but what happens with the polar vortex is important.  I do think at least some of it comes down and we have a 3-4 week of pretty solid winter that will resemble the late Dec/Early to Mid-January period of 1998-99 and 2017-18 sometime between Christmas and Valentine's Day before the Bruce portion of the winter takes over sometime in the 2nd half.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 17, 2020, 06:18:23 AM
The end of the 6Z run of the GFS seems to have upper heights building in eastern Canada that begin to poke up toward Greenland.  Correspondingly, long range outlooks forecast the NAO (along with AO) to dive toward negative territory.  Any amount of blocking in the polar regions may change up the weather as we head into December.  The question on my mind is: how low will it go, and how long will it last? 
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 17, 2020, 03:43:29 PM
Really nice and detailed winter outlook from Griteater at American Weather Forum. He goes with a mix of 1988-89 and 1893-94. Both were overall above average but punctuated by some severe cold spells and a couple of ice/snow threats. The February 1894 period ended with brutal cold temps and a huge snowstorm. I don't recall from their records on NCDC database that severe was a big factor.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S-f_HQdrNYZkrRw_6YhkFCkASa0WAZpa/view

21 pages BUT the gist is something I agree with:

Quote
I forecast a predominant +AO/+NAO winter combined with a North Pacific pattern that is  mixed, featuring a suppressed N Pac ridge at times keeping cold air bottled up to the north (target:  December), and a more poleward N Pac ridge at other times allowing cold air to spill south into the  lower 48 (target: February).

If you peep a little further on the NCDC website, March 1984 was anomalously warm month for the first 3 weeks followed by a severe late season cold spell and snow- which apparently did a number on the growing season.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 17, 2020, 04:22:12 PM
Really nice and detailed winter outlook from Griteater at American Weather Forum. He goes with a mix of 1988-89 and 1893-94. Both were overall above average but punctuated by some severe cold spells and a couple of ice/snow threats. The February 1894 period ended with brutal cold temps and a huge snowstorm. I don't recall from their records on NCDC database that severe was a big factor.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S-f_HQdrNYZkrRw_6YhkFCkASa0WAZpa/view

21 pages BUT the gist is something I agree with:

If you peep a little further on the NCDC website, March 1984 was anomalously warm month for the first 3 weeks followed by a severe late season cold spell and snow- which apparently did a number on the growing season.
lol. Sounds like going against the grain
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 17, 2020, 04:43:09 PM
Really nice and detailed winter outlook from Griteater at American Weather Forum. He goes with a mix of 1988-89 and 1893-94. Both were overall above average but punctuated by some severe cold spells and a couple of ice/snow threats. The February 1894 period ended with brutal cold temps and a huge snowstorm. I don't recall from their records on NCDC database that severe was a big factor.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S-f_HQdrNYZkrRw_6YhkFCkASa0WAZpa/view

21 pages BUT the gist is something I agree with:

If you peep a little further on the NCDC website, March 1984 was anomalously warm month for the first 3 weeks followed by a severe late season cold spell and snow- which apparently did a number on the growing season.

1988-89 had severe weather.  The Brentwood/Franklin tornado on Christmas Eve and then an F-4 hit somewhere in SW Indiana in January.  1893-94 not sure about.   1988-89 was very similar to a more subdued 2007-08 as far as the general pattern goes.   

There is an avenue for that type of winter described above to occur especially if a strat warming event occurs in January and helps send the PV down.  Not sure if I personally buy it, but in the long-range game there is a lot that can go right or wrong either way.   

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 17, 2020, 04:46:25 PM
1988-89 had severe weather.  The Brentwood/Franklin tornado on Christmas Eve and then an F-4 hit somewhere in SW Indiana in January.  1893-94 not sure about.   1988-89 was very similar to a more subdued 2007-08 as far as the general pattern goes.   

There is an avenue for that type of winter described above to occur especially if a strat warming event occurs in January and helps send the PV down.  Not sure if I personally buy it, but in the long-range game there is a lot that can go right or wrong either way.
You’re right about those for sure. Although they seemed to be loners if I recall rather than broads scale. I was mostly looking into the following spring seasons.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 17, 2020, 04:47:22 PM
lol. Sounds like going against the grain

Maybe, but sometimes going against the grain works.  There was a guy who went against the grain in 2018-19 and was laughed at it and his outlook was one of the only to verify.   A well-timed Strat Warming event could make his outlook verify nicely and our 1998-99 mixed with 2017-18 outlook not look as good.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 17, 2020, 04:51:33 PM
You’re right about those for sure. Although they seemed to be loners if I recall rather than broads scale. I was mostly looking into the following spring seasons.

1988 was also a drought year with a stout central US Ridge acting as a nice roadblock which is another factor that heavily influences severe weather season.  It is also why severe weather hasn't been quite that bad this fall season despite the unseasonably warm and moist air source and growing La-Nina.   

It does show that not all La-Nina springs mean twister land especially if you do get that ridging in the middle of the country.  With that being said Nina's that follow Nino's do have the legacy of having above-average severe weather seasons.  While an intoxicated Bruce dancing with tornadoes is far from a 100% chance there is that above-average risk.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 17, 2020, 04:54:17 PM
Maybe, but sometimes going against the grain works.  There was a guy who went against the grain in 2018-19 and was laughed at it and his outlook was one of the only to verify.   A well-timed Strat Warming event could make his outlook verify nicely and our 1998-99 mixed with 2017-18 outlook not look as good.
His overall forecast is warm which really isn’t against the grain. He’s smart to realize that most La Niña winters react to the position of the Pac ridge position - and can easily allow cold air to spill down into the lower 48. I think it’s a smart forecast.

Bruce means against the grain for not calling for multiple tornado outbreaks. There is always a risk with La Niña but previous data shows it not that pat.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 17, 2020, 05:08:04 PM
His overall forecast is warm which really isn’t against the grain. He’s smart to realize that most La Niña winters react to the position of the Pac ridge position - and can easily allow cold air to spill down into the lower 48. I think it’s a smart forecast.

Bruce means against the grain for not calling for multiple tornado outbreaks. There is always a risk with La Niña but previous data shows it not that pat.

The grain forecast is warm to very-warm with above-average tornado potential or at least what is mainstream in the weather land.  Most aren't as aggressive as Bruce about the severe weather part of course. The winters of 1998-99 and 2007-08 seem to be the default for some folks in weather forum land as to what a strong La-Nina is supposed to be like.  Kinda like Nirvana is the default to what Alternative Rock is even though there are many flavors of it.     
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 17, 2020, 05:10:44 PM
To be honest, I think if this winter stinks it up don't blame the Nina, it will be the MJO, the strong Polar Vortex, or the Pacific ridge sets too far to the west.  We can't pin it all on the ENSO because if we could then we wouldn't have had two crappy winters following a favorable west-based weak El-Nino series.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 17, 2020, 06:19:14 PM
I really hope we don't have any severe weather.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 19, 2020, 01:32:44 PM
Take with a grain of salt, but by the end of 12Z run of the GFS, positive (above normal) temperature anomalies cover nearly all of Canada.  Actually, it's difficult to find any truly cold air anywhere on our side of the globe by early December.  It will be difficult to get sustained cold here when the source region is well above seasonal temperatures.  The only saving grace is a decent snow pack continues to build over southeastern Canada (Quebec and Ontario) over the next two weeks per the forecast.  However, the provinces west of there are flooded with Pacific air it appears, and snowfall is below normal--especially in the lee of the Rockies.  Not a good look for early winter weather, but things can change.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 19, 2020, 02:32:36 PM
Take with a grain of salt, but by the end of 12Z run of the GFS, positive (above normal) temperature anomalies cover nearly all of Canada.  Actually, it's difficult to find any truly cold air anywhere on our side of the globe by early December.  It will be difficult to get sustained cold here when the source region is well above seasonal temperatures.  The only saving grace is a decent snow pack continues to build over southeastern Canada (Quebec and Ontario) over the next two weeks per the forecast.  However, the provinces west of there are flooded with Pacific air it appears, and snowfall is below normal--especially in the lee of the Rockies.  Not a good look for early winter weather, but things can change.
pacific region looks mild ... La Niña spitting out the pacific jet hose soon
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 20, 2020, 12:29:14 AM
To be honest, I think if this winter stinks it up don't blame the Nina, it will be the MJO, the strong Polar Vortex, or the Pacific ridge sets too far to the west.  We can't pin it all on the ENSO because if we could then we wouldn't have had two crappy winters following a favorable west-based weak El-Nino series.

I blame our geographical location. Its 2020 , so maybe we can pull something funky out of the bag by the end of year. Its a slow start in many places. Only 2 good snows so far out in the West. Mt Baker is getting the good over the next 15 days. PNW above H85 is getting clobbered..... Pattern will change and there will be more troughing/ridging setting up .... Fast Pacific , we know how this goes.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 20, 2020, 06:30:31 AM
I blame our geographical location. Its 2020 , so maybe we can pull something funky out of the bag by the end of year. Its a slow start in many places. Only 2 good snows so far out in the West. Mt Baker is getting the good over the next 15 days. PNW above H85 is getting clobbered..... Pattern will change and there will be more troughing/ridging setting up .... Fast Pacific , we know how this goes.
our geographic location used to not matter ... due to changes mainly to our climate unfortunately.... is the problem
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on November 20, 2020, 08:03:51 AM
our geographic location used to not matter

Agreed, we have talked before how snow averages used to be 3-4 inches higher than what they are now.....geography never used to matter before....most areas near 412 corridor and points north used to have averages of around 9-10 inches of snow per year and that's a really good season......however look at nashville's average now and it is around 6 inches because of lack of snow the past 15 years
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 20, 2020, 10:40:21 AM
our geographic location used to not matter ... due to changes mainly to our climate unfortunately.... is the problem

While that has played a roleif you look back over the past I believe that snowfall records here are a bit harder to figure over a given time as localized events have happen year to year. If the airport does not report it it never happened. Point being averages per county drastically changes. I have been here years before most of you showed up... We broke it down to the freaking T! What we learned was most storms come from a random wave that just happens to work with the cold , at the same time. As a whole yes it is getting warmer but we are in a terrible region for snowfall, even if we can get colder temps of the past. Urban heat islands , there is a lot that plays to this in the South.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on November 20, 2020, 11:29:25 AM
While that has played a roleif you look back over the past I believe that snowfall records here are a bit harder to figure over a given time as localized events have happen year to year. If the airport does not report it it never happened. Point being averages per county drastically changes. I have been here years before most of you showed up... We broke it down to the freaking T! What we learned was most storms come from a random wave that just happens to work with the cold , at the same time. As a whole yes it is getting warmer but we are in a terrible region for snowfall, even if we can get colder temps of the past. Urban heat islands , there is a lot that plays to this in the South.

Put in statistical terms, we have a very high standard deviation on snowfall averages in this region.

A single blockbuster storm could make the difference between a nothing season and a season that appears above normal. The "average" doesn't mean a whole lot with a tiny sample set. It's just a point in the middle between nil to low figures and higher outliers that all average out.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 20, 2020, 12:02:44 PM
Let's have a look at some "season-saving" events, where a single storm placed a winter snowfall at average or above average. These are to the best of my memory.

March 1993 Superstorm: 10-20+" totals for all of East Tennessee after almost nothing the entire winter.
March 7-8, 2008 Snowstorm: Pretty much statewide. Came in to the rescue after a lousy winter. High temperatures were in the 80s the weekend before this event.
March 1, 2009 Snowstorm: Smacked West Tennessee and produced significant snowfall in southern Middle Tennessee.
November 2011 Early Season Snowfall: West Tennessee locations such as Jackson pick up as much as 6" in this historically early snow. Nothing much to report after this storm, as the winter of 2011-2012 was very warm.
Winter Storm Jonas, January 22, 2016: Knockout snowfall totals for Nashville metro, especially north of the city. As much as 12" in Robertson and Sumner counties. The only season snowfall above 1 inch for the whole winter for most of those places.
December 10-11 2018 Snowstorm: Affecting NE Tennessee, this was a big snowstorm dropping 1 foot totals on the Tri-Cities. Nothing much to report after this.
February 8, 2020 Chattanooga Snowstorm: 4-5" of snow in a single day's storm produces Chattanooga's seasonal snowfall average.


It takes a single storm to make all the difference. It can come anywhere from November to March. I'm sure the board's older residents will give you some more instances. I was born in 1997 for goodness sakes, and I have that much to offer already.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on November 20, 2020, 12:02:50 PM
Put in statistical terms, we have a very high standard deviation on snowfall averages in this region.

A single blockbuster storm could make the difference between a nothing season and a season that appears above normal. The "average" doesn't mean a whole lot with a tiny sample set. It's just a point in the middle between nil to low figures and higher outliers that all average out.

I get what you are saying, however I distinctly remember almost every other winter from 90's until early 2000's we would get about 2 decent events of 3-5 inches across a lot of the mid- state whereas the past decade it is sparse at best. The past 4 years I have gotten about 4 inches of snow total in all those four years combined, so something has changed, but again I believe it's cyclical and will come back around at some point
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 20, 2020, 01:09:31 PM
I get what you are saying, however I distinctly remember almost every other winter from 90's until early 2000's we would get about 2 decent events of 3-5 inches across a lot of the mid- state whereas the past decade it is sparse at best. The past 4 years I have gotten about 4 inches of snow total in all those four years combined, so something has changed, but again I believe it's cyclical and will come back around at some point
i was a young boy during 70s  remember we get 3 to 4 snows a year   Easily
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on November 20, 2020, 02:33:20 PM
I get what you are saying, however I distinctly remember almost every other winter from 90's until early 2000's we would get about 2 decent events of 3-5 inches across a lot of the mid- state whereas the past decade it is sparse at best. The past 4 years I have gotten about 4 inches of snow total in all those four years combined, so something has changed, but again I believe it's cyclical and will come back around at some point

It's interesting to note the difference of perspective based on age and personal experience. I think I have about a decade of years on you. So, I remember growing up in the late 1970s and 1980s, coming of age in the early 1990s, and already well into adulthood in the early 2000s.

When we started this forum, I think around 2006, I remember a lot of discussion about, "it sure doesn't snow like it used to." My perception is there's basically been a snow drought in this region for most of the last 30 years, to be honest.

Back in those days I remember our comparing annual snowfall records back over the decades. I even created a graph that demonstrated snowfall trends over time in cities in TN.

The last 10 years were really not much worse than the 1990s in my mind. We had a few exception years with decent snowfall... such as 1996, 2003, and then around 2010-2011, but really that was about it. Other than that, a few spots "lucked out" with ULL systems that gave big events that missed the rest of the state. I noticed an uptick in snow around about 2010 and was hopeful the cycle might be turning a corner back to a longer term snowier pattern, but that didn't really pan out. So, there's kind of a IMBY (what happens "in my back yard") bias we all have to an extent.

So, all that to say- (and no jab intended on this)- it's a little funny to me when people say, oh it sure doesn't snow like it did in the 1990s and early 2000s, when I was thinking during those years, "it sure doesn't snow around here like it did back in the 1980s." :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 20, 2020, 02:54:12 PM
2014-15 was an uneventful winter until a two week "cold snap" in February and early March brought below zero temperatures into much of TN, along with multiple snow and ice events.  Strangely enough, that winter was the 19th warmest in the U.S.  And while we were in the ice box, much of the Northern Hemisphere was unusually warm.   We just happened to be in the sweet spot, where what cold there was in the Arctic was being directed into the eastern U.S.

Here is what NOAA had to say about February 2015:

Quote
In all, NOAA said about 30.6 percent of the country was “very warm” – meaning February was in the warmest 10 percent of the historical record – while 31.5 percent of the country was “very cold,” or in the coldest 10 percent historically. Out of the 1,442 months in NOAA’s dataset, only one other (October 1988) has ever seen very warm and very cold conditions each claim more than 30 percent of the country in the same month.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 20, 2020, 05:03:39 PM
Let's have a look at some "season-saving" events, where a single storm placed a winter snowfall at average or above average. These are to the best of my memory.

March 1993 Superstorm: 10-20+" totals for all of East Tennessee after almost nothing the entire winter.
March 7-8, 2008 Snowstorm: Pretty much statewide. Came in to the rescue after a lousy winter. High temperatures were in the 80s the weekend before this event.
March 1, 2009 Snowstorm: Smacked West Tennessee and produced significant snowfall in southern Middle Tennessee.
November 2011 Early Season Snowfall: West Tennessee locations such as Jackson pick up as much as 6" in this historically early snow. Nothing much to report after this storm, as the winter of 2011-2012 was very warm.
Winter Storm Jonas, January 22, 2016: Knockout snowfall totals for Nashville metro, especially north of the city. As much as 12" in Robertson and Sumner counties. The only season snowfall above 1 inch for the whole winter for most of those places.
December 10-11 2018 Snowstorm: Affecting NE Tennessee, this was a big snowstorm dropping 1 foot totals on the Tri-Cities. Nothing much to report after this.
February 8, 2020 Chattanooga Snowstorm: 4-5" of snow in a single day's storm produces Chattanooga's seasonal snowfall average.


It takes a single storm to make all the difference. It can come anywhere from November to March. I'm sure the board's older residents will give you some more instances. I was born in 1997 for goodness sakes, and I have that much to offer already.

I would add the Feb 2nd-4th 1998, December 23-24th 1998 (although that was largely sleet and freezing rain), the 2002 surprise snow, and December 22nd-23rd 2004 (for West and NW Middle TN) to that list.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 20, 2020, 08:06:00 PM
The PNA is looking to go positive as we head into December. 

If we had more cooperation in the arctic then I would be more excited, but a +PNA as long as it verifies and sticks around will prevent us from going full-blown torch. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on November 20, 2020, 09:45:44 PM
It's interesting to note the difference of perspective based on age and personal experience. I think I have about a decade of years on you. So, I remember growing up in the late 1970s and 1980s, coming of age in the early 1990s, and already well into adulthood in the early 2000s.

When we started this forum, I think around 2006, I remember a lot of discussion about, "it sure doesn't snow like it used to." My perception is there's basically been a snow drought in this region for most of the last 30 years, to be honest.

Back in those days I remember our comparing annual snowfall records back over the decades. I even created a graph that demonstrated snowfall trends over time in cities in TN.

The last 10 years were really not much worse than the 1990s in my mind. We had a few exception years with decent snowfall... such as 1996, 2003, and then around 2010-2011, but really that was about it. Other than that, a few spots "lucked out" with ULL systems that gave big events that missed the rest of the state. I noticed an uptick in snow around about 2010 and was hopeful the cycle might be turning a corner back to a longer term snowier pattern, but that didn't really pan out. So, there's kind of a IMBY (what happens "in my back yard") bias we all have to an extent.

So, all that to say- (and no jab intended on this)- it's a little funny to me when people say, oh it sure doesn't snow like it did in the 1990s and early 2000s, when I was thinking during those years, "it sure doesn't snow around here like it did back in the 1980s." :)

Makes sense to me, its clear to see those massive snows in 60's and 70's were alot bigger than anything from 90's and 2000's.
But there were more events not alot of massive ones though in 90's early 2000's than there have been in the past decade for me, perspective is right lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 21, 2020, 07:33:37 AM
The PNA is looking to go positive as we head into December. 

If we had more cooperation in the arctic then I would be more excited, but a +PNA as long as it verifies and sticks around will prevent us from going full-blown torch.
EPS is saying, not so fast my friend... ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 21, 2020, 09:21:07 AM
EPS is saying, not so fast my friend... ::blowtorch::

I'm really not sure what you're talking about. The EPS shows a dip in the heights by late Nov/ early Dec.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 21, 2020, 09:26:46 AM
I'm really not sure what you're talking about. The EPS shows a dip in the heights by late Nov/ early Dec.
going by latest temps map I observed
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 21, 2020, 12:32:22 PM
going by latest temps map I observed

I wouldn't call it a torch, man. Temps look average.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 21, 2020, 02:01:56 PM
If the polar vortex wasn't being a turd we would have a shot at below-average temperatures, but with the main ridging to our west and northwest, we should avoid the widespread torch temperatures we saw in 1998 and last year.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 21, 2020, 02:32:44 PM
If the polar vortex wasn't being a turd we would have a shot at below-average temperatures, but with the main ridging to our west and northwest, we should avoid the widespread torch temperatures we saw in 1998 and last year.   
that polar vortex is on steroids ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 21, 2020, 09:08:15 PM
going by latest temps map I observed

I'm still not sure what you saw that I missed, but this is the latest EPS run by Dec 1:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2020112112&fh=240

I would have posted an image, but the site will not allow me to at the present time.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 21, 2020, 09:39:45 PM
So shoot me, but, some of us might darn well be looking at our first winter event at the end of the month.

Stay tuned.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 21, 2020, 11:36:47 PM
So shoot me, but, some of us might darn well be looking at our first winter event at the end of the month.

Stay tuned.  ::snowman::
i can see the highest elevations of east tennessee maybe
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clint on November 22, 2020, 12:27:09 PM
 CMC  :o
(https://i.imgur.com/8dA6eva.png)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 22, 2020, 12:45:12 PM
Since I'm painfully wish-casting some snow, here's Bruce's version of what's to come  >:D

Thanksgiving Week: temps 60s.... possible severe

Nov 29 - Dec 5: temps 50s 60s... up to 70s by end of week... severe outbreak sw round texas plains area

Dec 6 - Dec 12: temps way above avg... humid... dry in se coast due to se ridge effect

Dec 13 - Dec 19: big severe outbreak... cold front moves thru mid south.... lot instability in ark. miss and west tn...

Christmas Week: ice storm for whole state of tenn and ky... then back to above normal temps... 70 on christmas day...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 23, 2020, 07:43:44 AM
CMC is really blasting the cold into the Ohio Valley and Upper MS River region. GFS, not so much, but does show a hard freeze around Nov 30-Dec 1
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 23, 2020, 08:37:39 AM
CMC is really blasting the cold into the Ohio Valley and Upper MS River region. GFS, not so much, but does show a hard freeze around Nov 30-Dec 1
cmc is cold bias . But I think we see our first hard freeze early December.  Per euro
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on November 23, 2020, 09:46:27 AM
cmc is cold bias . But I think we see our first hard freeze early December.  Per euro

first hard freeze? I have had temps at 27 and 28 about 3 times already ? whats going on out there in west tn?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 23, 2020, 11:03:48 AM
first hard freeze? I have had temps at 27 and 28 about 3 times already ? whats going on out there in west tn?

I have not dropped below 30 at my location yet. It would be my first hard freeze of the year as well.

Also, I thought your response to Bruce was Bruce responding to his own post for a second there  ;D
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BALLPARK on November 23, 2020, 11:09:42 AM
Since I'm painfully wish-casting some snow, here's Bruce's version of what's to come  >:D

Thanksgiving Week: temps 60s.... possible severe

Nov 29 - Dec 5: temps 50s 60s... up to 70s by end of week... severe outbreak sw round texas plains area

Dec 6 - Dec 12: temps way above avg... humid... dry in se coast due to se ridge effect

Dec 13 - Dec 19: big severe outbreak... cold front moves thru mid south.... lot instability in ark. miss and west tn...

Christmas Week: ice storm for whole state of tenn and ky... then back to above normal temps... 70 on christmas day...
Bruce you still predicting 50s-60s-70s for Nov 29 - Dec 5
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 23, 2020, 11:18:45 AM
Bruce you still predicting 50s-60s-70s for Nov 29 - Dec 5
high temps appear to be around 50 to uppers 50s range for highs . Could see some upper 40s for day or two for the plateau region.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on November 23, 2020, 11:50:51 AM
What a classic La-Nina like, wait a minute below average or at least temps in the SE, building heights in the northern plains, active subtropical jet, +PNA, who poured this Nino into my La Niña cake mix
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 23, 2020, 12:59:56 PM
What a classic La-Nina like, wait a minute below average or at least temps in the SE, building heights in the northern plains, active subtropical jet, +PNA, who poured this Nino into my La Niña cake mix

 ::snow::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on November 23, 2020, 02:15:25 PM
What a classic La-Nina like, wait a minute below average or at least temps in the SE, building heights in the northern plains, active subtropical jet, +PNA, who poured this Nino into my La Niña cake mix
lookout... get ready for the 40 degree rains again for least temporarily. ::sleeping::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 23, 2020, 03:29:26 PM
lookout... get ready for the 40 degree rains again for least temporarily. ::sleeping::

Someone pissed in Brucie's cheerios  ::)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 23, 2020, 04:21:47 PM
It's good to see some possible winter threats showing up over the next two weeks.  I'm not biting yet, but it's the pattern that has caught my interest.  PNA is going positive.  The NAO/AO are, at the very least, trending toward neutral. That says to me I might see frozen crystals falling from the sky at some point, even if they don't accumulate much.  That's huge for my latitude in early December in 2020.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 25, 2020, 12:06:05 PM
Last "winter" was bad for Tennessee, and even more so for those eastern seaboard cities like Philadelphia that went snowless.

Similarly, the winter of 2019-2020 was unbelievably warm and snowless in Moscow and the whole of Eastern Europe. Read this article for more information: https://abcnews.go.com/International/moscow-people-adjust-winter-snow-resort/story?id=69286450

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on November 25, 2020, 01:14:47 PM
A snowless winter in Moscow is like a summer without humidity in Tennessee.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 27, 2020, 01:29:10 PM
The day after Thanksgiving is a slow sales day. In my spare time today, I've compiled the weather records from OHX and created an easy-peasy Excel graph showing 121 seasons of snowfall. This spans from the 1899-1900 season to the 2019-2020 season. This is snowfall accumulation only, and note that totals at the airport in recent years may be lower than the vicinity due to the UHI effect from the airport.

Enjoy. Click for best resolution.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 27, 2020, 02:08:40 PM
I wonder if we have records from John C Tune , Smyrna airports?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 27, 2020, 02:45:44 PM
The day after Thanksgiving is a slow sales day. In my spare time today, I've compiled the weather records from OHX and created an easy-peasy Excel graph showing 121 seasons of snowfall. This spans from the 1899-1900 season to the 2019-2020 season. This is snowfall accumulation only, and note that totals at the airport in recent years may be lower than the vicinity due to the UHI effect from the airport.

Enjoy. Click for best resolution.

(Attachment Link)
In general, the 1920’s to 1950’s were poor snowfall producing years. Its easy to see the winter spike of 1917/18 before the 20’s came back with little to offer. There were some good years in that 30 year period however similar to the last 30 or so. That 30 year period was the start of the positive AMO phase. It turned negative from the early 60’s to mid 90’s then of course now it’s been negative since. Most likely that correlates to general low snowfall producing years with some heavy hitters from time to time. The positive AMO flips about every 30 years so it’s on borrowed time.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on November 27, 2020, 03:21:56 PM
The day after Thanksgiving is a slow sales day. In my spare time today, I've compiled the weather records from OHX and created an easy-peasy Excel graph showing 121 seasons of snowfall. This spans from the 1899-1900 season to the 2019-2020 season. This is snowfall accumulation only, and note that totals at the airport in recent years may be lower than the vicinity due to the UHI effect from the airport.

Enjoy. Click for best resolution.

(Attachment Link)

Proves my point of when i say when i was a kid/teenager in 90's and early 2000's we averaged much more snow than we have in past decade
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2020, 08:31:35 AM
Yep. The 1981-2010 annual average snowfall for Nashville is 6.4".

The past ten winters? 4.0"

When almost all of your winters are  ::blowtorch::, that'll happen.

To be fair, Nashville struck bad luck when it had a snow dome during the cold winter of 2013-2014. Everywhere around Nashville in all directions got more snow than we did that year. It sucked.
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on November 30, 2020, 03:05:42 PM
ENSO 3.4 warmed some since last week to -1.3. Outside of some cooling in region 3.0- and around Indonesia which is important...the basin was neutral or warmed some. It may be a bit premature, but we may have seen this Nina bottom out already. I don't see this being in record Nina territory like the infamous ONI of -2.0 in winter 73-74. Modeling has the basin on the rise anyways early next year. If the Indonesian waters can continue to cool we might actually see the MJO rotate some this winter vs last winter...meaning more volatile weather vs benign.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 30, 2020, 03:46:23 PM
ENSO 3.4 warmed about since last week to -1.3. Outside of some cooling in region 3.0- and around Indonesia which is important...the basin was neutral or warmed some. It may be a bit premature, but we may have seen this Nina bottom out already. I don't see this being in record Nina territory like the infamous ONI of -2.0 in winter 73-74. Modeling has the basin on the rise anyways early next year. If the Indonesian waters can continue to cool we might actually see the MJO rotate some this winter vs last winter...meaning more volatile weather vs benign.
I like volatile.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 03:59:39 PM
Bruce often gets blasted for saying he likes severe weather, but I'm boarding the "Interesting Weather" train, too. I like my weather a little crazy. That's what American weather is all about.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on November 30, 2020, 04:19:34 PM
I like volatile.

I can only assume you've never been married.   ::whistling::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 30, 2020, 07:55:36 PM
I can only assume you've never been married.   ::whistling::
30 years and counting. 8)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2020, 07:58:05 PM
30 years and counting. 8)

Congratulations, my man :D

A lot of people wish they had what you and your wife have
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on December 01, 2020, 10:26:20 AM
30 years and counting. 8)

Yeah, I'm 19 years into my life sentence. Joking, joking.  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 01, 2020, 10:43:45 AM
I'm still sticking to my guns. I think some of us on the board will see some flakes flying by week 2 of December.

Boom. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2020, 03:06:55 PM
This may end up being a front loaded winter if you look at some of the blocking showing up later in December.  The NAO/AO also seem to want to stay, at the very least, out of deeply positive territory for now.  If nothing else, this month won't be like last December. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 01, 2020, 03:25:22 PM
This may end up being a front loaded winter if you look at some of the blocking showing up later in December.  The NAO/AO also seem to want to stay, at the very least, out of deeply positive territory for now.  If nothing else, this month won't be like last December.
yeah, la nina 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 01, 2020, 04:23:19 PM
First day of December and much of Tennessee is on the board for the winter of 2020-2021.  ::snow::

Snowfall since September 30th, 2020:
[attachimg=1]

While the snow in that image is quite expansive, do note how marginal the snow cover over the contiguous U.S. is as of midnight on December 1:
[attachimg=2]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 01, 2020, 04:35:47 PM
12z models showing significant PV warmth (ie PV weakening)mid to late December. If its going to be of any benefit for winter weather lovers, that's when you need it- not mid February.
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 01, 2020, 05:17:38 PM
This may end up being a front loaded winter if you look at some of the blocking showing up later in December.  The NAO/AO also seem to want to stay, at the very least, out of deeply positive territory for now.  If nothing else, this month won't be like last December.
I think we will see a shift to cold for the western 2/3rds into late December with fairly variable weather for TN. If you weaken the PV- which is looking likely, you will see bitterly cold air invade the plains at some point - and will fight with the SER. That’s a typical La Niña pattern that can be beneficial and equally cruel.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on December 01, 2020, 07:07:57 PM
12z models showing significant PV warmth (ie PV weakening)mid to late December. If its going to be of any benefit for winter weather lovers, that's when you need it- not mid February.

For areas west of I-65 and north of I-40 the Nina ish battleground zone pattern is better than having a favorable pattern without real cold air. 

For those in Southern Middle TN and East TN you want to keep this pattern and hope for a strong ULL event or something that generates enough cold air to thread the needle.  Or at the very least something similar to last event but a bit stronger and at peak climo (late Jan-Feb).   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2020, 07:24:30 PM
I think we will see a shift to cold for the western 2/3rds into late December with fairly variable weather for TN. If you weaken the PV- which is looking likely, you will see bitterly cold air invade the plains at some point - and will fight with the SER. That’s a typical La Niña pattern that can be beneficial and equally cruel.

Sounds like a pattern that may favor west TN at some point.  In my mind changeable weather is better than what we've experienced the last few winters of endless warmth. Change is good.   ;)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 01, 2020, 08:28:08 PM
Sounds like a pattern that may favor west TN at some point.  In my mind changeable weather is better than what we've experienced the last few winters of endless warmth. Change is good.   ;)
And to clarify- I meant western 2/3rds of the CONUS - not Tennessee.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 06, 2020, 01:28:26 PM
Eps now has it much warmer average through first half January ... ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 06, 2020, 03:12:00 PM
EPS has been flopping back and forth the last few days. I think we will see periods of slightly above normal but also have bouts of below normal as well during and through most of January. I highly doubt we see much severe weather but maybe a thunderstorm or 2 is certainly possible in a warm period. I think that warm pool in the pacific is going to make it hard for a trough to stay locked in the west for long periods. I think there will be PNA ridges that pop now and again out there. Probably some seasonal to slightly above average temps at times but I think we will see bouts of cold air at times too. -NAO still pretty persistent on modeling as well, not that it is right. ::popcorn::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 06, 2020, 03:23:45 PM
EPS has been flopping back and forth the last few days. I think we will see periods of slightly above normal but also have bouts of below normal as well during and through most of January. I highly doubt we see much severe weather but maybe a thunderstorm or 2 is certainly possible in a warm period. I think that warm pool in the pacific is going to make it hard for a trough to stay locked in the west for long periods. I think there will be PNA ridges that pop now and again out there. Probably some seasonal to slightly above average temps at times but I think we will see bouts of cold air at times too. -NAO still pretty persistent on modeling as well, not that it is right. ::popcorn::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
towards the end of January going into February will favor a severe weather pattern as the teleconnections start to line up...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 07, 2020, 05:06:38 PM
towards the end of January going into February will favor a severe weather pattern as the teleconnections start to line up...

How on God's green earth could you know what teleconnections will look like in 60 days when the forecast skill for 14 days is low?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2020, 04:05:39 PM
https://www.weather.gov/lzk/windatabase.htm

NWS Little Rock now has a winter storm database featuring winter storms from as far back as 1819.The data is still being complied for 1950 onwards.  Its esp relevant for those in west and maybe even middle TN, maybe less so for East TN. However, its really fascinating and well done. the 1870's and 1880's were absolutely insane. You can also see the major snow drought from the 1920's through the end of the database. If one were to extrapolate further until the data set is complete, the 1950's stunk too for the most part minus a couple of blockbuster storms inc the ice/snow event of Jan 1951. I would also bet that starting in about 1960, winter storms increase all the way to about 1990 when they dove tail off again. That coincides nicely with the AMO state.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 09, 2020, 04:23:53 PM
https://www.weather.gov/lzk/windatabase.htm

NWS Little Rock now has a winter storm database featuring winter storms from as far back as 1819.The data is still being complied for 1950 onwards.  Its esp relevant for those in west and maybe even middle TN, maybe less so for East TN. However, its really fascinating and well done. the 1870's and 1880's were absolutely insane. You can also see the major snow drought from the 1920's through the end of the database. If one were to extrapolate further until the data set is complete, the 1950's stunk too for the most part minus a couple of blockbuster storms inc the ice/snow event of Jan 1951. I would also bet that starting in about 1960, winter storms increase all the way to about 1990 when they dove tail off again. That coincides nicely with the AMO state.

Excellent resource. Is there a way to remove the black overlay on the states not named AR though? I don't know if they purposely did that in case the rest is less accurate, but I do see the color spread over surrounding states for these storms for a brief moment until the black overlay renders.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2020, 04:40:35 PM
Excellent resource. Is there a way to remove the black overlay on the states not named AR though? I don't know if they purposely did that in case the rest is less accurate, but I do see the color spread over surrounding states for these storms for a brief moment until the black overlay renders.

I don't think you can. That's probably why extrapolating to West TN is so easy. NWS Little Rock has superb extracurricular items like this. Our office...not so much. and then there is MRX- maybe the least of any.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2020, 04:51:35 PM
I don't think you can. That's probably why extrapolating to West TN is so easy. NWS Little Rock has superb extracurricular items like this. Our office...not so much. and then there is MRX- maybe the least of any.
I have noticed that about Little Rock, they put out some good weather history info alot.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2020, 12:09:43 PM
This is more long range speculation, so I'm posting this here not to disrupt what may happen next week.

I have noticed the GFS has backed away from a warm Christmas on recent runs. There was a fairly pronounced SER on the simulations from yesterday and the day before, but it now appears to be more aggressive with pushing the cold down to the Tennessee Valley.

AO/NAO remain negative next week, with AO forecast to go strongly negative. It's a small piece to the puzzle, but it can't hurt our chances for snowfall. If we can sit just to the N, NW or West of the storm tracks we could be in business. This looks better than last December if you like it to feel seasonal around the holidays.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on December 10, 2020, 12:21:19 PM
This is more long range speculation, so I'm posting this here not to disrupt what may happen next week.

I have noticed the GFS has backed away from a warm Christmas on recent runs. There was a fairly pronounced SER on the simulations from yesterday and the day before, but it now appears to be more aggressive with pushing the cold down to the Tennessee Valley.

AO/NAO remain negative next week, with AO forecast to go strongly negative. It's a small piece to the puzzle, but it can't hurt our chances for snowfall. If we can sit just to the N, NW or West of the storm tracks we could be in business. This looks better than last December if you like it to feel seasonal around the holidays.

Yep, right now 10 day long range has + heights over the pole with a nice strong vortex over Hudson Bay.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 11, 2020, 11:43:29 AM
https://simonleewx.com/gefs-35-day-north-american-regimes/

This website links to a PHD who has some great plots for what the GEFS is predicting long term. Basically has it broken down into 4 categories:

https://fh004579.webs.act.reading.ac.uk/spv_ens/namer_regimes.png

For now, long term trends of the GEFS , 14 members show an Arctic Low setup, while 10 show an Alaskan Ridge. The Arctic Low scenario tends to pour arctic air into the west and attempt to push it east against an eastern ridge. The Alaskan high scenario is cold and stormy across most of the CONUS. What you dot want mid winter is the Pacific Trough pattern- its a blowtorch. If the GEFS is right, this should set up some sharp temp gradients across the country at some point.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on December 11, 2020, 04:45:41 PM
https://simonleewx.com/gefs-35-day-north-american-regimes/

This website links to a PHD who has some great plots for what the GEFS is predicting long term. Basically has it broken down into 4 categories:

https://fh004579.webs.act.reading.ac.uk/spv_ens/namer_regimes.png

For now, long term trends of the GEFS , 14 members show an Arctic Low setup, while 10 show an Alaskan Ridge. The Arctic Low scenario tends to pour arctic air into the west and attempt to push it east against an eastern ridge. The Alaskan high scenario is cold and stormy across most of the CONUS. What you dot want mid winter is the Pacific Trough pattern- its a blowtorch. If the GEFS is right, this should set up some sharp temp gradients across the country at some point.

To put some familiar dates on that

1) Arctic High would be a 2009-10, 2010-11 type of winter pattern

2) Arctic Low which 14 of the GEFS models show would be your battleground pattern.  So think 2007-08, 2008-09, and the second half of 2018-19

3) Alaskan Ridge the second most popular on the GEFS would be a 2013-14 and 2014-15 type pattern and also briefly late Dec/Early Jan 2017-18.  With a +NAO, but driven by a stout -EPO. 

4) Pacific Trough is your everyone but Alaska torches pattern.  The best example would be last winter but the winters of 1999-2000 and 2005-06 are also great examples. 

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2020, 03:30:50 PM
La Nina still warming a bit this week with Region 3.4 being the coldest at a moderate Nina. The eastern PAC is actually almost neutral. It could still make one more run to strengthen but  this may be where it bottoms out.

Niño 4: -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4: -1.2ºC
Niño 3 : -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2: -0.1ºC
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on December 14, 2020, 04:40:41 PM
La Nina still warming a bit this week with Region 3.4 being the coldest at a moderate Nina. The eastern PAC is actually almost neutral. It could still make one more run to strengthen but  this may be where it bottoms out.

Niño 4: -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4: -1.2ºC
Niño 3 : -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2: -0.1ºC

It is a very west-based Nina.  Not sure what that means as we continue through the rest of the winter though.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2020, 06:49:19 PM
It is a very west-based Nina.  Not sure what that means as we continue through the rest of the winter though.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201215/417f633e4276cedd8d1323e47c028777.jpg)

We would be in what’s called a classic CP or central based La Niña vs EP or East based.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2020, 06:57:47 PM
It is a very west-based Nina.  Not sure what that means as we continue through the rest of the winter though.
being west based would mean more than a better chance than average trough hangs out west, which we wouldnt want for winter weather.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2020, 06:59:08 PM
being west based would more than better chance than average trough hangs out west, which we wouldnt want for winter weather.
You gotta translate here Bruce.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2020, 07:03:50 PM
You gotta translate here Bruce.
would mean better chance the trough will set up shop west as the western ridge gets beat down by a western based nina even with the nina decaying sometime january..
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2020, 07:18:07 PM
my top 10 programs of all time are .... drum roll please.    number 10 is the tennessee vols. number 9 is michigan woverines... number 8 is florida state seminoles... number 7 florida gators... number 6 miami canes... number 5l ohio state buckeyes... number 4 isoklahoma sooners number 3 is usc trojans number 2 is nebraska corn huskers and number 1 is  excuse me as i puke  bad as i hate to say the crimson tide of alabama... >:D sorry notre dame  i dont like you.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Eric on December 14, 2020, 07:20:19 PM
Wrong thread dude.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2020, 07:21:48 PM
Wrong thread dude.
can u please fix that for me eric, sorry man lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on December 14, 2020, 11:31:49 PM
can u please fix that for me eric, sorry man lol

Paster still broken I see.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 15, 2020, 04:11:55 AM
Paster still broken I see.
that was just a joke , made that up lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on December 15, 2020, 08:29:28 AM
that was just a joke , made that up lol

Ohh, I know and it was a good one. I laughed at it more than I should, then again I'm a simpleton.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on December 17, 2020, 02:51:58 PM
Long range GFS shows some very wet times ahead for Kentucky and Tennessee toward year's end.  Looks like a strong front sets up shop in the area, and decides to rain on our New Year's parade and beyond.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 17, 2020, 03:02:36 PM
Long range GFS shows some very wet times ahead for Kentucky and Tennessee toward year's end.  Looks like a strong front sets up shop in the area, and decides to rain on our New Year's parade and beyond.
needs to be snow ⛄️ jay
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 17, 2020, 11:02:50 PM
Teleconnections from the GEFS extended which goes through the first 2/3rds of Jan:

AO negative to neutral
NAO negative to neutral
EPO positive
PNA neutral
MJO null tending towards colder phases

Even if just the EPO stays positive, you can bet cold air outbreaks are on the table.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 17, 2020, 11:06:39 PM
Teleconnections from the GEFS extended which goes through the first 2/3rds of Jan:

AO negative to neutral
NAO negative to neutral
EPO positive
PNA neutral
MJO null tending towards colder phases

Even if just the EPO stays positive, you can bet cold air outbreaks are on the table.
sounds like a good recipe for dry as a bone weather unfortunately...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 18, 2020, 12:54:22 AM
sounds like a good recipe for dry as a bone weather unfortunately...

No
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on December 18, 2020, 04:20:41 AM
Teleconnections from the GEFS extended which goes through the first 2/3rds of Jan:

AO negative to neutral
NAO negative to neutral
EPO positive
PNA neutral
MJO null tending towards colder phases

Even if just the EPO stays positive, you can bet cold air outbreaks are on the table.

Do you mean EPO negative, because +EPO is pretty much what we have this month and what we had most of last winter?     
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 18, 2020, 05:59:00 AM
Do you mean EPO negative, because +EPO is pretty much what we have this month and what we had most of last winter?   
Yes you are correct my bad. All the positive and negatives. The long range EPO would not be that favorable for cold outbreaks since its positive. The other teleconnections would be favorable however. Cant win ‘em all.

And let me edit a second. This is the long range GEFS EPO. The control is off the charts negative for awhile before going positive. The mean is a little on the positive side. The euro weeklies are more on the positive side - but they always go positive. I would say for winter weather- all hope isn’t lost here either.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201218/3bc39bf45f6fe146db34f65711ea7be9.jpg)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on December 18, 2020, 11:21:41 AM
The +EPO will hurt. The rest being at least semi-favorable would at least give us chances. As long as we are not finishing months +4 Or above we will have our chances. Whether we capitalize is of course a different story
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 19, 2020, 02:16:35 PM
The PV just got battered and it about to take another even more harsh beating over the next 10 days. Today’s runs are a full on PV split. That will have major ramifications down the road into mid January if we still have blocking. This is a complete opposite of 2019/20 where the PV was wrapped up tight.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on December 19, 2020, 02:45:23 PM
I think the timing of the PV falling apart and at least some potential to get a -NAO would really increase the odds that we see that 2-4 week period of strong winter potential starting sometime in early to mid-January. 

Our winter analogs of 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2017-18 had that 2-4 week period sometime in or around early to mid-January even if they did average warmer than normal.   
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 19, 2020, 04:25:40 PM
I think the timing of the PV falling apart and at least some potential to get a -NAO would really increase the odds that we see that 2-4 week period of strong winter potential starting sometime in early to mid-January. 

Our winter analogs of 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2017-18 had that 2-4 week period sometime in or around early to mid-January even if they did average warmer than normal.   
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201219/bb0a5fb270d7683bdcfc98a425329d1e.jpg)

Here are SSW events between 1958 and 2010. If you want winter for more than a week or two, you want a total split vs just a displacement - and you want it December or January. Late winter events would not do us much good other than a gross spring. The best examples for the more serious winters are Jan 1968, Jan 1977,  Dec 1984, Dec 1987, Jan 2009, and Jan 2010. You can find plenty of cold winters without a SSW, too. You can likewise find some with a displacement or split where it didn’t produce. It’s certainly helps up the ante though. There were no SSW events between 1990 and 1998(and 98 was just a displacement). That’s highly unusual given the history here and a part contributor to the piss poor winter period in the 90’s- although there were exceptions (superstorm 93, ice storm 94, winter 95-96, and the cold and snow of Jan 97.

Edit: add Jan ‘71 for a split as well. February ‘71 was cold and snowy in Tennessee.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 21, 2020, 04:13:00 AM
Europe seems to be getting all the artic air at this time... again.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 21, 2020, 10:38:27 AM
La Nina update: ENSO region 3.4 has now warmed to -0.9. The east cooled a bit and the west stayed the same. Its basically a borderline moderate basin wide La Nina. Its possible it tanks again but looking less likely week after week.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on December 21, 2020, 10:49:29 AM
La Nina update: ENSO region 3.4 has now warmed to -0.9. The east cooled a bit and the west stayed the same. Its basically a borderline moderate basin wide La Nina. Its possible it tanks again but looking less likely week after week.

It is starting to look like La-Nina is going to have less of an impact at least on the winter side of things than once though of.  Remember unless you get down to +1.5C or -1.5C or more the ENSO doesn't matter all that much. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 21, 2020, 03:18:50 PM
I cant remember that last time the Euro Weeklies had a - NAO/ -AO/+ EPO/neutral PNA forecast for all of January- but its there.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2020, 04:53:55 PM
Maybe the stars are aligning to give us the first decent winter in a long time.  It is the winter of the "Great Conjunction" after all. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on December 21, 2020, 05:41:14 PM
I cant remember that last time the Euro Weeklies had a - NAO/ -AO/+ EPO/neutral PNA forecast for all of January- but its there.

Outside of 2018, I haven't been this pumped about a January since 2014. 

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on December 21, 2020, 05:47:49 PM
Maybe the stars are aligning to give us the first decent winter in a long time.  It is the winter of the "Great Conjunction" after all.

Just saw the Great Conjunction. My front porch faces the SW so you walk out and there it is. Pretty cool.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on December 21, 2020, 06:23:43 PM
I looked at it through binoculars.  Very cool.  Could see the two separate planets of Jupiter and Saturn all in one field of view--something you can only do every 800 years or so. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on December 21, 2020, 07:05:12 PM
Outside of 2018, I haven't been this pumped about a January since 2014.
I have tried to block out the memory of January 2014. That month is the ultimate kick in the pants for Nashville's ongoing snow drought. Coldest January since 1985 and Nashville got less than a half inch of snow.  ::bangingheadintowall::
Still hard to imagine six years later.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on December 21, 2020, 08:07:27 PM
January with a -NAO is a pretty good signal for at least weather that doesn't torch.   

I have included two maps one that shows all La-Nina January's that have a negative or right at neutral NAO.  The second one takes out 1985 and 2011, which may be seen as extreme and unusual circumstances. Temperatures are still around average and probably a bit below if 1981-2010 or 1991-2020 averages are used even if one removes 1985 and 2011.   

The Northern Plains cold is probably a bit overdone if we have a +PNA.  I would say as long as nothing blindsides us at worst we repeat this month if the PV doesn't displace or split, but if it does then I think mid-month to the first week or so of February will be legit.  We will likely switch to our regularly scheduled blowtorch programing after Valentines Day.   

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 21, 2020, 08:36:30 PM
January with a -NAO is a pretty good signal for at least weather that doesn't torch.   

I have included two maps one that shows all La-Nina January's that have a negative or right at neutral NAO.  The second one takes out 1985 and 2011, which may be seen as extreme and unusual circumstances. Temperatures are still around average and probably a bit below if 1981-2010 or 1991-2020 averages are used even if one removes 1985 and 2011.   

The Northern Plains cold is probably a bit overdone if we have a +PNA.  I would say as long as nothing blindsides us at worst we repeat this month if the PV doesn't displace or split, but if it does then I think mid-month to the first week or so of February will be legit.  We will likely switch to our regularly scheduled blowtorch programing after Valentines Day.
now the question is, can we get more than just a cold dry pattern coming up next month... hopefully we can get into some type of split flow pattern so we can score a winter storm
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 21, 2020, 09:09:54 PM
Hope Hour:

Hoping for a good snow in January

And come March (I'm gonna say it)...

I'm interested in our severe potential.

Sorry if this offends some people. I'm not wishing for death and destruction. Don't freak out.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 22, 2020, 01:27:17 AM
Hope Hour:

Hoping for a good snow in January

And come March (I'm gonna say it)...

I'm interested in our severe potential.

Sorry if this offends some people. I'm not wishing for death and destruction. Don't freak out.
you won’t be alone . Promise
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 22, 2020, 07:57:46 AM
Anyone happen see the 0z euro long range? Interesting lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 22, 2020, 05:35:53 PM
Euro control has more snow and some brutal cold temps in the single digits statewide into early Jan.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 23, 2020, 08:16:50 AM
The euro ensembles are pretty much on board with a negative nao negative ao and now showing positive pna throughout most January ...epo looks get to neutral least ... nice looking snow storm showing back Oklahoma longer range by the way ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 23, 2020, 11:28:40 AM
Also note... this La Niña May try to give one last push as trade winds look get active in the western enso region. shouldn start to  see some cooling in the 3.4 region as also in the 4 region appears . Some things may start to get little interesting  severe weather wise come February ... we see
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on December 23, 2020, 07:19:39 PM
Also note... this La Niña May try to give one last push as trade winds look get active in the western enso region. shouldn start to  see some cooling in the 3.4 region as also in the 4 region appears . Some things may start to get little interesting  severe weather wise come February ... we see

Late February (there always seems to be a threat on or around the 24th in these types of winters) has always been a potential timeframe to watch for severe weather this winter.  Until then, unless you get a super dynamic system it is very likely just not going to happen.   

Until then our +EPO/-NAO combo will carry us through with our El-Nino ish like winter.  If the polar vortex does a displacement (it very likely won't split) then things get pretty fun for 3-5 weeks.  If it doesn't we probably have a January-February period that is actually probably going to be pretty similar to our two past Super El-Nino years (1998 and 2016).  We do appear to have a nice split flow pattern so it won't be a question of if but a question of when a potentially big storm with a winter threat forms and of course a question of who gets involved.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on December 23, 2020, 07:20:50 PM
The consistent -NAO being there pretty much ensures that we won't really ever torch at least probably through most of January, even if things aren't as cold as we would like.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clint on December 24, 2020, 09:08:44 AM
The 0Z Euro has a nice snow for Tennessee right after the New Years. Let's see if it holds.

(https://i.imgur.com/aY5emsn.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/62sJYCF.png)



Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 24, 2020, 09:24:43 AM
0z euro end of run... solid 6 inches snow some little higher
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on December 24, 2020, 10:25:37 AM
Long range Euro keeps looking good. Nice statewide hit at the end of the run.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 24, 2020, 12:28:12 PM
Just wow at all that energy digging in southwest on euro . Not finished running yet., but could be a big run for the midsouth coming here
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 24, 2020, 01:04:39 PM
Euro  ::rofl:: Looks like sleet is messing with these totals.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 24, 2020, 01:07:32 PM
That run of the euro says get ready for the new year snow lovers in Tennessee! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on December 24, 2020, 02:05:50 PM
Euro  ::rofl:: Looks like sleet is messing with these totals.

(Attachment Link)

I'll gladly take 25 inches of sleet.   ;D
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Matthew on December 24, 2020, 02:13:33 PM
🤣🤣🤣Well the way 2020 has gone why not.  I would believe it to be an historic rain storm.  That much sleet well obviously would be catastrophic.  So thankfully that’s not happening but wait .... it is 2020🤷🏻‍♂️
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 24, 2020, 02:14:56 PM
Euro  ::rofl:: Looks like sleet is messing with these totals.

(Attachment Link)
strong signal of a big storm system showing up on most models next week towards new years ... could get very interesting .
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Matthew on December 24, 2020, 02:15:23 PM
How have the verification scores been lately on these models?  Any improvement?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 24, 2020, 02:16:10 PM
That 25 inches of snow equals about 5 inches of sleet.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Matthew on December 24, 2020, 02:16:29 PM
strong signal of a big storm system showing up on most models next week towards new years ... could get very interesting .

It has but my guess is a huge rain storm.  Looks like dry conditions are not a worry yet.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 24, 2020, 02:19:00 PM
It has but my guess is a huge rain storm.  Looks like dry conditions are not a worry yet.
some big cold air lurking just north going try come down.  My guess we going see bunch ice
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: dwagner88 on December 24, 2020, 04:49:43 PM
It has but my guess is a huge rain storm.  Looks like dry conditions are not a worry yet.
Yep. GFS says  ::drowning:: ::drowning::
It’s about 2 months ahead of schedule. Someone has forgotten to tell Mother Nature that we traditionally flood in February now.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on December 24, 2020, 05:43:58 PM
It has but my guess is a huge rain storm.  Looks like dry conditions are not a worry yet.

Yep looks like big rain and possibly some thunderstorms....low looks to be to our north as usual :(

I was going by what i saw on gfs this am but maybe something has changed
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 24, 2020, 05:50:26 PM
Euro  ::rofl:: Looks like sleet is messing with these totals.

(Attachment Link)

What a joke.


Just like any model showing snow in Middle Tennessee in the long range.

Or the short range.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 24, 2020, 06:24:12 PM
Yep looks like big rain and possibly some thunderstorms....low looks to be to our north as usual :(

I was going by what i saw on gfs this am but maybe something has changed
euro does have slp
Way further south ... picking up on some nice wrap around ... but I still fear some ice issues  if frontal boundary stalls south of us... still to far even worry just yet
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on December 24, 2020, 06:30:23 PM
euro does have slp
Way further south ... picking up on some nice wrap around ... but I still fear some ice issues  if frontal boundary stalls south of us... still to far even worry just yet

BRUCE

Join our chat
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 25, 2020, 10:39:05 PM
Cold air a chasing the rain like .... Chasing the rain Away........Chasing the rain awwayyyy....... I got no job.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 26, 2020, 07:18:28 AM
Models are struggling with New Year’s system. GFS now has a carbon copy of Christmas Eve. The Euro has had four wildly different solutions the last four runs.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on December 26, 2020, 08:05:55 AM
Models are struggling with New Year’s system. GFS now has a carbon copy of Christmas Eve. The Euro has had four wildly different solutions the last four runs.

MRX agrees:

Quote
By mid week we will have another significant storm system headed our
way.  Slowed down approach of POPs by 6 hours in the grids, based on
new Euro run with deeper trough and slower movement.  We should have
a classic setup for a 12-18 hour Mountain Wave Wind event centered
right now around Thursday, with the timing differing in models. The
low level winds will be bringing up a lot of moisture, thereby
inducing some instability.  Have kept Thunder out for now, but could
see it possibly getting into southern parts of the area Thursday.

On the back side of this system the colder air could offer another
chance of snow around Thursday night into early Friday.  The overall
scenario is not too different from this White Christmas scenario,

but too early to know about available moisture, how quickly airmass
will cool, and how much lift there will be.  Looks like this precip
will taper off pretty quickly around Friday.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Coach B on December 26, 2020, 08:56:57 AM
DT with an excellent summary of the next month's potential:

https://youtu.be/YlCXrFCudpw
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on December 26, 2020, 11:36:23 AM
Euro  ::rofl:: Looks like sleet is messing with these totals.

(Attachment Link)

Ha- I just saw this image (now a couple of days old from that model run) posted on a community FB page a few minutes ago... getting folks stirred up over the big snow storm that’s coming after the first of the year. 🤣
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on December 26, 2020, 12:29:34 PM
Nice deformation band over Eastern Arkansas and west TN on the 12z Euro. Now it has my interest.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 26, 2020, 01:09:27 PM
Nice deformation band over Eastern Arkansas and west TN on the 12z Euro. Now it has my interest.
yeah 12 euro says happy New Years to east Arkansas and west tennessee . Nice little 1 to 3 inch swath
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 26, 2020, 01:23:16 PM
yeah 12 euro says happy New Years to east Arkansas and west tennessee . Nice little 1 to 3 inch swath

Oh boy this is going to be fun to watch pan out. At least they both said F you to the Bacon Muncher CMC
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on December 26, 2020, 03:26:01 PM
Oh boy this is going to be fun to watch pan out. At least they both said F you to the Bacon Muncher CMC

I had  ::bacon:: this morning.  And I liked it.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BALLPARK on December 26, 2020, 04:43:41 PM
Nice deformation band over Eastern Arkansas and west TN on the 12z Euro. Now it has my interest.
GFS 18Z looked like a nice hit for West TN and West KY.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 26, 2020, 05:02:06 PM
Joe bastardi just said in his video a major ssw event is under way.  Snowy January for the east
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 26, 2020, 05:04:46 PM
Yes 18Z GFS moves deformation zone into Western TN and KY. Sharp cutoff right @ I-65.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BALLPARK on December 26, 2020, 10:20:11 PM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020122700&fh=150
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 27, 2020, 12:18:52 PM
I can tell you if the next 15 days are close to what Operational runs are showing. Snow cover to the NW of us is going to be pretty decent. Less modified air gives us better odds during borderline events. Lots to look at in terms of what one or two misses to the NW does in regards to low level cold air. SER sets up after we could have really cold air at the surface ready for transport down into a overrunning event.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on December 28, 2020, 11:11:33 AM
Latest gfs ensembles are showing more of a Greenland block setting up within next couple weeks. That would provide us more of a true negative nao setting up. Like see the pacific get little better for us. But can’t have it all guess
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 31, 2020, 09:40:27 AM
Quote
If you look at the official forecast, this is why there
are still chances throughout the week. Those aforementioned
periods are just the best bets for stronger storms. There could be
one more storm the very end of the week into next weekend,
however, ensembles are hinting at the ridge rebuilding, which
would lead to the storm weakening and/or possibly being shifted
northward.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on January 01, 2021, 10:55:08 AM
Euro Weekly at mid month is a pretty good look. Solid west based NAO with a decent ridge to our west. Could definitely get a nice southern slider with that look.

(https://i.ibb.co/qn2thBm/euro-weekly-12-31.png)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 08, 2021, 02:26:30 PM
Eps now has it much warmer average through first half January ... ::blowtorch::

This didn't age well  ::)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2021, 02:29:13 PM
This didn't age well  ::)
well nothing in long range really does, no torch but its not cold yet to be honest either
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 08, 2021, 02:37:15 PM
well nothing in long range really does, no torch but its not cold yet to be honest either

(https://media.giphy.com/media/QmFVjU6nVTsS4/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2021, 01:25:58 PM
MJO is very weak. Forecast confidence for any phase is about to revert back to nil for the second time this winter.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2021, 03:49:39 PM
does anybody know the latest date some midstate areas have gotten an inch or more of snow? I honestly do remember snow one time around easter when i was a kid at some point, would have been 90's or early 2000's?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2021, 07:38:56 AM
does anybody know the latest date some midstate areas have gotten an inch or more of snow? I honestly do remember snow one time around easter when i was a kid at some point, would have been 90's or early 2000's?

I'd have to go with the late April snowstorm of 1910. Link: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVmHRG8U8AADxX5.png (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVmHRG8U8AADxX5.png)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on January 15, 2021, 12:59:26 PM
Really like using this site to see where the anomalous snow and cold is in the northern hemisphere... <hint> not on our side of the globe this year...yet.

 https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom (https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2021, 01:08:44 PM
Great resource, thank you
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Matthew on January 16, 2021, 01:12:04 PM
I have a lot of respect for this man.  He is one I pay attention to.  I do hope he’s wrong about this. People are still trying to recover from the tornadoes in March. 


Would like to get some input from others if ok.  Maybe this topic can be put in a different thread if admin would like.

Lowe’s has the above ground tornado shelters.  I have considered getting one and may pull the trigger soon since the above post by Fred.  How does everyone feel about an above ground shelter?  Recommendations or thoughts?

Apologize this is in winter thread.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2021, 02:07:53 PM
I have a lot of respect for this man.  He is one I pay attention to.  I do hope he’s wrong about this. People are still trying to recover from the tornadoes in March. 


Would like to get some input from others if ok.  Maybe this topic can be put in a different thread if admin would like.

Lowe’s has the above ground tornado shelters.  I have considered getting one and may pull the trigger soon since the above post by Fred.  How does everyone feel about an above ground shelter?  Recommendations or thoughts?

Apologize this is in winter thread.
talk bout severe anytime guess. Yeah been talking to a lot experts about this spring myself . Looking forward to very active potential violet spring as a chaser .
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2021, 03:25:28 PM
talk bout severe anytime guess. Yeah been talking to a lot experts about this spring myself . Looking forward to very active potential violet spring as a chaser .

I'm looking forward to a violet spring myself.  Along with redbuds and dogwoods.   ;)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 16, 2021, 03:28:12 PM
I'm looking forward to a violet spring myself.  Along with redbuds and dogwoods.   ;)

 ::rofl:: She is waiting for you Bruce. She has the winning nader ticket. Ill take snow white


(https://imgs.mygoldmusic.co.uk/images/61810?crop=16_9&width=660&relax=1&signature=3GVYZx1BcalBVgHbUk29q6plieA=)


(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-e3QV1Ilb0VM/UA_eL24WoMI/AAAAAAAAJPg/qnC4qVPP608/s320/stew.jpg)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Beth on January 16, 2021, 06:08:04 PM
Violets are very laid back and not violent at all.  😂😂😂
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2021, 06:56:32 PM
Violets are very laid back and not violent at all.  😂😂😂
ok I left out  letter. Hate this I phone . Lol think people know what I meant
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2021, 09:50:02 PM
ok I left out  letter. Hate this I phone . Lol think people know what I meant

Considering the previous year, and the ongoing "stuff", I had hoped you meant a violet spring. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Eric on January 16, 2021, 10:14:32 PM
ok I left out  letter. Hate this I phone . Lol think people know what I meant

My dude, you been leaving out letters and words since you got here.  Don't blame the tech when its the operator that needs a reset.   ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Matthew on January 16, 2021, 10:40:15 PM
My dude, you been leaving out letters and words since you got here.  Don't blame the tech when its the operator that needs a reset.   ::bagoverhead::

🤣🤣🤣
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Thundersnow on January 17, 2021, 12:36:04 AM
My dude, you been leaving out letters and words since you got here.  Don't blame the tech when its the operator that needs a reset.   ::bagoverhead::

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/7J26fDOzFJqPtO2Vxz/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 17, 2021, 02:46:51 AM
It must be a boring winter appears still I see...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on January 17, 2021, 06:20:01 AM
That Aleutian Island Ridge is not a good trend and the trend of losing the -EPO is very concerning as well. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 17, 2021, 09:18:17 AM
That Aleutian Island Ridge is not a good trend and the trend of losing the -EPO is very concerning as well.
agree, been reading over american wx some, the heavy hitters over there saying we are trending in the wrong direction for sure per latest trends 48 hours, hopefully it can change because i was starting to become little excited end of january.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 17, 2021, 09:56:49 AM
It must be a boring winter appears still I see...

No atic air Bruce no be happy. Most will say its been better than most with a glass half full not empty. I am sorry you feel this way.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 17, 2021, 10:24:24 AM
Re: severe potential, it's a good idea to prepare for what may be a destructive spring. I don't wish for any more in our area after last year's deadly tornadoes. However, severe weather is a fact of life, and it's good to know when to expect periods of enhanced activity. I am fascinated by tornadoes, and I get a pang of excitement myself when we are marked down for a high risk day, because I really enjoy tracking supercells. But in our area, I don't really care for it; they're often nocturnal, rain-wrapped, and obstructed by our hilly terrain. Conclusively, it's hard to see when these things are coming, especially at 12am when you're rushing your family and pets down to the basement.

Remember, Bruce, we lost 26 Tennesseans in last year's tornadoes in two separate events. I don't understand why you actively wish for violent weather knowing what results we will get. Again, severe weather is a fact of life, and there is nothing we can do but be prepared for it, but your comments toward these deadly outbreaks will piss off a lot of people.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 17, 2021, 10:39:07 AM
Re: severe potential, it's a good idea to prepare for what may be a destructive spring. I don't wish for any more in our area after last year's deadly tornadoes. However, severe weather is a fact of life, and it's good to know when to expect periods of enhanced activity. I am fascinated by tornadoes, and I get a pang of excitement myself when we are marked down for a high risk day, because I really enjoy tracking supercells. But in our area, I don't really care for it; they're often nocturnal, rain-wrapped, and obstructed by our hilly terrain. Conclusively, it's hard to see when these things are coming, especially at 12am when you're rushing your family and pets down to the basement.

Remember, Bruce, we lost 26 Tennesseans in last year's tornadoes in two separate events. I don't understand why you actively wish for violent weather knowing what results we will get. Again, severe weather is a fact of life, and there is nothing we can do but be prepared for it, but your comments toward these deadly outbreaks will piss off a lot of people.
great post man ... just don’t hate on me for my love severe weather. I wish no harm to no one. But I’m getting very excited for what maybe coming this spring
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 17, 2021, 10:40:49 AM
great post man ... just don’t hate on me for my love severe weather. I wish no harm to no one. But I’m getting very excited for what maybe coming this spring

I understand, I really, really do. Being excited for the power of Mother Nature =/= wishing for body bags. This is a weather forum. We share excitement for weather here.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 17, 2021, 01:41:24 PM
I understand, I really, really do. Being excited for the power of Mother Nature =/= wishing for body bags. This is a weather forum. We share excitement for weather here.

Yes,  but I find it hard to get pumped up by e EF-4 + coming through your neighborhood. But he , most human like watching destruction and death ::shrug::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on January 17, 2021, 02:09:16 PM
Considering the events of 2020/at least Early 2021, I would say hoping for any significant event even winter ones will get you some eye-rolls especially from people with only casual interests and the general public. 

It is probably a blessing in disguise for many areas that they haven't been hit hard this winter.  Remember snowy/icy roads impact travel including emergency travel and can increase the frequency of people doing to the hospital (think slipping on ice) and with the "thing that won't be named" still on the prowl that is a good thing.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: gcbama on January 17, 2021, 02:46:05 PM
I am just gonna be the glass half full guy, i got lucky so far this season with around 3 total inches of snow, wishing for a more actual significant event but even though pattern as of now doesn't look great i know there is still another 4+ weeks of winter where you don't know what could happen.....it's all good!

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on January 17, 2021, 06:19:21 PM
Pretty cool graphic from NashSevereWx on twitter showing annual snowfall for Nashville. Pretty amazing we've never seen a 20" year since the late 70s and they used to be quite common before that.

What would Nashville do these days if we saw a greater than 20" snowfall for the season? People wouldn't know what to do.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NashSevereWx/status/1350644597844824064 (https://mobile.twitter.com/NashSevereWx/status/1350644597844824064)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on January 18, 2021, 09:57:43 AM
Looks like the MJO decided to wake up. Most move to borderline 6/7 over the next few days before stalling. 7 looks more likely as time moves on but the skill is not that great. Ensembles going above normal on temps in the LR until the MJO get settled. At least this year the polar vortex is open for business vs the last 2. Hopefully the MJO moves into the colder phases 7-2 for February. If not- and they stall in or move backwards....well I won’t go there just yet.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 18, 2021, 11:08:34 AM
Have to cling to something for February and March. Stick a fork in January.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on January 18, 2021, 11:24:53 AM
Looks like the MJO decided to wake up. Most move to borderline 6/7 over the next few days before stalling. 7 looks more likely as time moves on but the skill is not that great. Ensembles going above normal on temps in the LR until the MJO get settled. At least this year the polar vortex is open for business vs the last 2. Hopefully the MJO moves into the colder phases 7-2 for February. If not- and they stall in or move backwards....well I won’t go there just yet.

The LR is good for the Pacific NW.  It really needs to be good for Utah and Colorado or else their water situation will turn dire, so hopefully, they can sneak some heavy snowmakers.   

As Nashville WX said we don't rely on snow much outside of our enjoyment but if places out West and especially Southwest don't get their snow then it is major water restriction time and wicked wildfire time come summer.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 18, 2021, 11:31:49 AM
The LR is good for the Pacific NW.  It really needs to be good for Utah and Colorado or else their water situation will turn dire, so hopefully, they can sneak some heavy snowmakers.   

As Nashville WX said we don't rely on snow much outside of our enjoyment but if places out West and especially Southwest don't get their snow then it is major water restriction time and wicked wildfire time come summer.
can u say La Niña pattern?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on January 18, 2021, 11:38:23 AM
I am still on the fence on whether we go 2008 style or 2012 style.  I think we will do one of the two. 

We go through our MJO or stay near COD, deal with the -PNA/+EPO, but have a colder air source above meaning that Feb/March turn battlezone like with a rapid increase in precipitation, changeable weather, and the potential for areas north of I-40 and I-65 to thread the needle for a winter event.  The potential is there for low amplitude troughs as you head into springtime along with a fading Nina that suggests that the state birds for Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee will all be the NOAA WX Radio.   

OR

We get stuck in MJO 6, have a huge ridge in the Central US that acts as a traffic jam, possibly lose the -NAO in the long-range and stay dry and warm, but with the occasional act of severe weather violence for any system that briefly dents the pattern.  In this case, we have a very active early spring that ends by mid-April and head into a 1930s or 2012 nearly continental drought.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 18, 2021, 01:58:13 PM
Throwing out Sept/Oct 2019, we've been spared of a long, hot, dry summer for a while. I must wonder if one is coming up.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Matthew on January 18, 2021, 02:55:19 PM
Usually by mid Feb I am ready for spring.  Just hope it’s not a cold spring again.  Ready for outdoors and soccer.  These 50-60 days are nice. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 18, 2021, 03:01:19 PM
Usually by mid Feb I am ready for spring.  Just hope it’s not a cold spring again.  Ready for outdoors and soccer.  These 50-60 days are nice.
last spring wasn’t cold actually. Rather pleasant . We had a spring for a change .
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 18, 2021, 03:14:20 PM
Usually by mid Feb I am ready for spring.  Just hope it’s not a cold spring again.  Ready for outdoors and soccer.  These 50-60 days are nice.

I think that goes for just about all of us. I start getting excited for spring weather in mid-late February unless I see some significant winter potential on the horizon.

Of course, February 15-March 15 is that time of year you can have balmy spring days, powerful severe weather, and a winter storm all in the same week.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 18, 2021, 08:44:35 PM
Yeah, a little over 25 days into Winter and you guys are ready for Spring? This is why it does not snow here you traitors  ::rofl:: ::snowman:: Everyone wants its their way, not natures way. Winter for me starts in early November through late May, June if its a long season. Get back on the horse, we still have 60 days left. The models are horrible....Well then why do you believe them into the extended. Until someone can predict the future , I am not sure how much I would get pissed models past day 10. As you know we have seen major changes within day 5 all the way to day 2 and 3. Point being, the snowfall we usually get is never modeled like the storms we track in the extended range. Who know wtf is going to happen here is really what I am trying to say. All i know is , ill take it whenever I can get it. Morel season starts once the snow melts an soil temps raise. I am down for the spring and summer,  just let me have my winter :P
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 18, 2021, 08:49:34 PM
Speaking of extended, I have to go to Indianapolis on the 24-28th. 12Z Euro really paints some strong through that area. Looking like a good chance to see a decent snowfall without having to get high.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on January 19, 2021, 09:05:28 AM
La Niña is now becoming fully west based with the coldest region in 4 and the warmest almost neutral region 1.2. This La Niña will start  dying off during the late winter from east to west as we already see. Region 4 being cold *may*keep the MJO out of phases 3-5 which are warmer this time of year. The colder phases in mid to late winter are 7-2.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 19, 2021, 09:16:54 AM
La Niña is now becoming fully west based with the coldest region in 4 and the warmest almost neutral region 1.2. This La Niña will start  dying off during the late winter from east to west as we already see. Region 4 being cold *may*keep the MJO out of phases 3-5 which are warmer this time of year. The colder phases in mid to late winter are 7-2.

Best we can do. Windows of opportunity will come. The overall pattern has had some flexibility this year. One thing we have not see in strong SER. I suspect this will come later in the Winter season, possible in spring depending on several things pretty hard to nail out even a month away. If the MJO has legs a moves into the late-early phases would yield better chances for anything frozen.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2021, 08:45:52 PM
Interesting look at February just going by ENSO analogs. Not good.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1351527234373361665 (https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1351527234373361665)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: TNHunter on January 21, 2021, 08:18:34 AM
About time to start our spring thread.  I am ready, even with over a week of duck season left.  Sunny and 70 degrees sounds awesome right about now.  I would take a repeat of last spring since we actually had one, minus the severe outbreak around Nashville.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 22, 2021, 02:50:54 PM
Any chance the MJO could head into the phases we like? It's finally moving out of the weak zone and into phase 6. Would be nice if we could catch 8, 1 and 2.
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2021, 04:43:17 PM
Any chance the MJO could head into the phases we like? It's finally moving out of the weak zone and into phase 6. Would be nice if we could catch 8, 1 and 2.
Euro has the MJO exclusively in 7 maybe on its way to 8 by mid to late February. Phase 7 in February is cold. The EPS has a negative WPO - and it’s control run is off the charts negative. It wants to create a central US trough in early February. The tail end of the control run today sends an arctic air mass directly into the center of the country. Time will tell. If the EPO goes that direction most likely the EPO will follow in some fashion even it’s just neutral to weak positive.

I just can’t imagine we get off this easy. Most winters are here have a 2-3 week focused period of “more harsh” conditions. There are some cards on the table. The last half of February and first of March 2015 is always proof that arctic air masses can occur without resistance.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2021, 05:16:57 PM
The cold in the center of country is what we need. There are a lot of ways for us to get snow but on this end of the state we need to be on the east side of the trough. Some usually get screwed with that setup.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Flash on January 22, 2021, 05:40:41 PM
Euro has the MJO exclusively in 7 maybe on its way to 8 by mid to late February. Phase 7 in February is cold. The EPS has a negative WPO - and it’s control run is off the charts negative. It wants to create a central US trough in early February. The tail end of the control run today sends an arctic air mass directly into the center of the country. Time will tell. If the EPO goes that direction most likely the EPO will follow in some fashion even it’s just neutral to weak positive.

I just can’t imagine we get off this easy. Most winters are here have a 2-3 week focused period of “more harsh” conditions. There are some cards on the table. The last half of February and first of March 2015 is always proof that arctic air masses can occur without resistance.

I can only hope and pray we get a repeat of that stretch (with less ice of course). The memories were many that winter.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on January 22, 2021, 07:12:13 PM
One positive about the upcoming long-range pattern is that we should become more stormy and therefore see more rain.  Areas west of I-65 are starting to need some rainfall.

As far as the general pattern I don't really like to bet against that late Feb/Early March, La-Nina climo it isn't really our friend and especially if the EPO isn't negative. The best case for the western half of TN and KY will be a 2008 situation where some of that cold air seeps in and times well with a March snow system, but 2012 can also happen if we aren't careful as well.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 23, 2021, 08:24:41 AM
One positive about the upcoming long-range pattern is that we should become more stormy and therefore see more rain.  Areas west of I-65 are starting to need some rainfall.

As far as the general pattern I don't really like to bet against that late Feb/Early March, La-Nina climo it isn't really our friend and especially if the EPO isn't negative. The best case for the western half of TN and KY will be a 2008 situation where some of that cold air seeps in and times well with a March snow system, but 2012 can also happen if we aren't careful as well.   
i would love to have another February 08 redo again. What a fun chase night that was .
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 23, 2021, 08:31:07 AM
Starting see April analogs of 2006 and 2011 come used commonly. Both were quite intense months. But severe should end late April first week May im seeing ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 23, 2021, 09:02:27 AM
Starting see April analogs of 2006 and 2011 come used commonly. Both were quite intense months. But severe should end late April first week May im seeing ...

Could you cite sources?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: snowdog on January 23, 2021, 09:41:28 AM
Current US snow depth map is pretty amazing, in a bad way for snow lovers, for the middle of January.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: WXHD on January 23, 2021, 10:05:10 AM
Current US snow depth map is pretty amazing, in a bad way for snow lovers, for the middle of January.
It seems Texas has been the big winner so far. And that ain’t right.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Hank W on January 23, 2021, 10:08:52 AM
Some good thoughts from Todd Yakoubian at KATV out of Little Rock.

https://www.arkansasweatherblog.com/post/my-state-of-the-winter-address-1
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 23, 2021, 10:17:05 AM
Could you cite sources?
top dogs all over it on American weather . Severe wx should rock this spring ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 23, 2021, 11:15:38 AM
The system on the 28th is inching close to a chance of snow. Something to watch. The GFS continues to have a bomb in the long range.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on January 23, 2021, 02:28:12 PM
Pattern looks eerily similar to 2008 (also a west based moderate La Niña) although nothing near as warm because of the NAO and AO. Wouldn’t be surprised to see thunderstorms over the next 2 weeks if not severe weather somewhere followed by a cool down for the rest of February. 2008 did not have a strat warm and now that we have a split polar vortex, at some point it’s going below normal. MJO looks to be headed to 8 by early February which is almost certainly why ensembles are cooling things off long range.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 23, 2021, 02:46:25 PM
top dogs all over it on American weather . Severe wx should rock this spring ...

Ahhhhhhhh
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: StormNine on January 23, 2021, 03:38:30 PM
Ahhhhhhhh

That -PNA severe weather pattern could lead to big snows out West in the late March-April timeframe if you want to look at the bright side of that.
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Curt on January 23, 2021, 05:05:19 PM
My prediction is a greater than normal chance for severe come April. My prediction is that Bruce will over predict severe for every  system from now until June. And then in the fall again too.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: BRUCE on January 23, 2021, 05:09:37 PM
My prediction is a greater than normal chance for severe come April. My prediction is that Bruce will over predict severe for every  system from now until June. And then in the fall again too.
least like my chances curt. Should be fun to track . I may actually get to knock the dust off my noaa weather radio and get to use it this season ...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 23, 2021, 05:43:02 PM
least like my chances curt. Should be fun to track . I may actually get to knock the dust off my noaa weather radio and get to use it this season ...


If you least like those chances, what chances do you not least like more?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 23, 2021, 05:44:50 PM
That -PNA severe weather pattern could lead to big snows out West in the late March-April timeframe if you want to look at the bright side of that.

Well, we will just have to wait till we hear what americanwx has to say. Then brucie can relay it over to us.