Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on July 26, 2020, 09:41:06 PM

Title: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on July 26, 2020, 09:41:06 PM
August is next weekend.  It looks like a pretty humid but not too extremely hot.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on July 29, 2020, 10:37:10 AM
After a heavy rain through this weekend, a fairly significant summer cold front will move through. Temps are below normal through the end of the extended period. Dew points look to drop into the 50s early next week meaning overnight lows could follow suit in a few places. At a minimum, I could see low 60s in most places outside of UHI. After this patten breaks, we will see if a true late summer heat takes hold. Crossing fingers for just plain normal. I think the hurricane season will start ramping up mid August too.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on July 29, 2020, 03:03:38 PM
Often times this time of year the Monsoon kicks off which displaces the Sonora Ridge aka the SW Ridge either to the Pacific Northwest or to our region or both.  At least through the first week of August it looks like the SW Ridge stays put in the Desert Southwest and builds up the west coast leading to troughs in Central part of the USA that make it even our way.

If that patterns holds much longer into August then the Gulf Coast will probably get popped with multiple hurricane threats because anything that is able to make it into the Gulf or Caribbean Sea will want to take that weakness. Although that gives us relief from the heat that could lead to even worse consequences for us and those to our south later on down the line.   
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Eric on July 29, 2020, 03:15:46 PM
Often times this time of year the Monsoon kicks off which displaces the Sonora Ridge aka the SW Ridge either to the Pacific Northwest or to our region or both.  At least through the first week of August it looks like the SW Ridge stays put in the Desert Southwest and builds up the west coast leading to troughs in Central part of the USA that make it even our way.

If that patterns holds much longer into August then the Gulf Coast will probably get popped with multiple hurricane threats because anything that is able to make it into the Gulf or Caribbean Sea will want to take that weakness. Although that gives us relief from the heat that could lead to even worse consequences for us and those to our south later on down the line.

OHX posted a GFS image of progged PWATs for the greater TN area a few days ago and I think the highest value was 2.65.  That's an insane amount of water in the atmosphere...near record levels they said.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Matthew on July 29, 2020, 10:13:58 PM
OHX posted a GFS image of progged PWATs for the greater TN area a few days ago and I think the highest value was 2.65.  That's an insane amount of water in the atmosphere...near record levels they said.
In other words frog stranglers.  Flash flooding almost a guaranteed.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on July 30, 2020, 10:57:23 AM
Quote
  ...Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinity...
   Sizable spread lingers within model output concerning the synoptic
   and sub-synoptic developments Saturday through Saturday night.  In
   general, though, it appears that the lower/mid tropospheric
   perturbation will be accompanied by 30-50 kt southerly to
   southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, across the warm sector
   of a modest, slowly deepening and northeastward migrating surface
   low.  Although mid-levels may be relatively warm, boundary-layer
   moisture characterized by surface dew points in excess of 70f may
   still contribute to CAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg by Saturday afternoon.
   This should be sufficient to support the initiation of vigorous
   thunderstorm development.

   Given this environment, including favorable ambient vertical
   vorticity, and perhaps modest clockwise curved low-level hodographs,
   some supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appear
   possible, in additional to upscale growing convection capable of
   producing potential damaging wind gusts.

This is associated with a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for Day 3.   
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: gcbama on July 30, 2020, 12:45:27 PM
This is associated with a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for Day 3.

quite interesting for August/summer
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: TNHunter on July 31, 2020, 07:16:18 AM
How much yíall want to bet that the first week of August is going to be cooler than the first week of October??? LOL
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on July 31, 2020, 01:45:15 PM
Like Dyer said...3 days ago every model had 4-5 inches of rain. And now..maybe half an inch. GFS has temps in the upper 70's and low 80's for a few days with much drier DP's. In fact, Tues morning might be close to record lows albeit the UHI will prevent it in reality. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few 50's. Its just a reminder that fall isn't far away now that we are in late summer.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 31, 2020, 02:36:34 PM
I have yet to see enough to even wet the pavement. Crazy.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on July 31, 2020, 03:47:01 PM
I have yet to see enough to even wet the pavement. Crazy.

And I've had nearly three inches in the past few days.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on July 31, 2020, 05:12:18 PM
Lol. Bypassed again. A whopping 0.09Ē in the gauge. Looks like the I-40 corridor in East TN did better.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on July 31, 2020, 07:15:19 PM
Wouldn't be surprised if there was a swirling cloud or 2 here right now lol

Title: August 2020
Post by: Curt on July 31, 2020, 07:25:26 PM
I donít know if Iíve ever seen such a pleasant August night for patio weather. (Oops July)
Title: August 2020
Post by: Curt on August 01, 2020, 11:54:14 AM
Only 70. At noon. In early August. And no rain. INCREDIBLE.

Youíre not going to see very many ULLís in August right on top of us with some mild CAA.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on August 01, 2020, 12:32:10 PM
Memphis will almost certainly break the record hi min...which is 83. Donít see the sun come into out in time. Many of the August record hi minimums were set in the last 10 years. Astounding.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2020, 01:41:18 PM
Memphis will almost certainly break the record hi min...which is 83. Donít see the sun come into out in time. Many of the August record hi minimums were set in the last 10 years. Astounding.

I'm inclined to believe that is evident of climate change in our region. Summers do appear to be getting cooler and wetter, on average (though 2012 and 2016 were major exceptions, with June 2012 breaking record highs from 1936).

Meteorological autumn in Tennessee has warmed significantly. There is no question about that. The average high in September for Nashville used to be about 80 in the late 20th century, but I would not at all be surprised if the average September high for BNA is 85 when the 1991-2020 normals are eventually compiled. I acknowledge some of that is from Nashville's urban growth and the resultant UHI effect, but still, there is no question our Septembers have become very, very warm compared with those of the mid 20th century. October, too, has become much warmer.

I think our climate is also getting wetter, and this may be reflected in the 1991-2020 data compared with the 1981-2010 normals.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: JHart on August 01, 2020, 02:20:58 PM
Gusty winds, intermittent clouds swirling around a low pressure center near the Ohio River, and instability showers Ö a perfect March weather setup on August 1st.  Why not, it is 2020 after all. ::shrug::
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Matthew on August 01, 2020, 04:22:55 PM
Gusty winds, intermittent clouds swirling around a low pressure center near the Ohio River, and instability showers Ö a perfect March weather setup on August 1st.  Why not, it is 2020 after all. ::shrug::
I was thinking same thing.  Been out mowing and trimming bushes in between nice showers.  Feels wonderful out.  I was thinking what month are we in. Iím mowing 2 times a week.  It seems weird to say that and to also say here we are water logged.  Would help to have so dry days.  This year is full of surprises.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on August 01, 2020, 04:37:39 PM
Some areas in Southern Illinois look like they won't get out of the 60s today. 
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2020, 05:18:22 PM
This is the most bizarre mid summer's day I've ever seen at this latitude. This is, on average, what most of Germany is like during the summer. We're stuck in a swirl of cool air originating in the Great Lakes region. It's 73 F here, but just over 100 miles SE in Chattanooga it's 88 F.

Speaking of Germany, Western Europe is expected to torch later in the week. Paris is looking at 101 degrees F high temperatures next Saturday. Madrid is going to hit the mid 100s. London may reach the upper 90s and The Ruhr may reach 100.  ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2020, 05:23:46 PM
Check out the heat wave in Spain this coming weekend:

https://www.theweather.com/spain.htm?d=saturday
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on August 01, 2020, 05:37:04 PM
This is the most bizarre mid summer's day I've ever seen at this latitude. This is, on average, what most of Germany is like during the summer. We're stuck in a swirl of cool air originating in the Great Lakes region. It's 73 F here, but just over 100 miles SE in Chattanooga it's 88 F.

Speaking of Germany, Western Europe is expected to torch later in the week. Paris is looking at 101 degrees F high temperatures next Saturday. Madrid is going to hit the mid 100s. London may reach the upper 90s and The Ruhr may reach 100.  ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch::
Itís been weird here too. Very windy. Almost like a March day, but dry and warm. 
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Matthew on August 01, 2020, 07:38:23 PM
One of the best rainbows Iíve seen ever.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on August 02, 2020, 08:05:42 AM
It's a perfect late September morning. Cool air, a nice breeze, low humidity...we had our breakfast on the sun porch with all the windows opened up and the fresh air has the house feeling the best it has in weeks. Enjoy the morning everyone!
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on August 03, 2020, 07:49:24 AM
The rain is tantalizingly close today, but looks like it will miss just to the east. The HWY 411 corridor is going to get plastered though. Isaias is interacting with the stalled frontal boundary over the mountains.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: nrgJeff on August 03, 2020, 10:53:05 AM
Last night was gorgeous. Never thought Td 65 would feel so good; but, it does after two weeks of ludicrous humidity. Agree with Curt it's nice out now. Should last much of the week.

Yes Schneitzeit, this summer has been a classic climate change signal. Lines up with numerical models and human forecasts, hot Pac NW and Canada, less of a signal Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Regrettably that fuels skepticism locally.

Serious question since I'm new: Are we allowed to talk Climate Change on the regular forecasts threads? Typically I might mention it as forecast reasoning; but, I do not debate causes unless I'm in a Climate thread.

Finally after this week looks like a little more like July for a couple weeks, where the North heat ridge oozes into the South. I can deal if the trade-off is a nice Sept. Not holding my breath through, lol!