Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on July 26, 2020, 09:41:06 PM

Title: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on July 26, 2020, 09:41:06 PM
August is next weekend.  It looks like a pretty humid but not too extremely hot.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on July 29, 2020, 10:37:10 AM
After a heavy rain through this weekend, a fairly significant summer cold front will move through. Temps are below normal through the end of the extended period. Dew points look to drop into the 50s early next week meaning overnight lows could follow suit in a few places. At a minimum, I could see low 60s in most places outside of UHI. After this patten breaks, we will see if a true late summer heat takes hold. Crossing fingers for just plain normal. I think the hurricane season will start ramping up mid August too.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on July 29, 2020, 03:03:38 PM
Often times this time of year the Monsoon kicks off which displaces the Sonora Ridge aka the SW Ridge either to the Pacific Northwest or to our region or both.  At least through the first week of August it looks like the SW Ridge stays put in the Desert Southwest and builds up the west coast leading to troughs in Central part of the USA that make it even our way.

If that patterns holds much longer into August then the Gulf Coast will probably get popped with multiple hurricane threats because anything that is able to make it into the Gulf or Caribbean Sea will want to take that weakness. Although that gives us relief from the heat that could lead to even worse consequences for us and those to our south later on down the line.   
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Eric on July 29, 2020, 03:15:46 PM
Often times this time of year the Monsoon kicks off which displaces the Sonora Ridge aka the SW Ridge either to the Pacific Northwest or to our region or both.  At least through the first week of August it looks like the SW Ridge stays put in the Desert Southwest and builds up the west coast leading to troughs in Central part of the USA that make it even our way.

If that patterns holds much longer into August then the Gulf Coast will probably get popped with multiple hurricane threats because anything that is able to make it into the Gulf or Caribbean Sea will want to take that weakness. Although that gives us relief from the heat that could lead to even worse consequences for us and those to our south later on down the line.

OHX posted a GFS image of progged PWATs for the greater TN area a few days ago and I think the highest value was 2.65.  That's an insane amount of water in the atmosphere...near record levels they said.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Matthew on July 29, 2020, 10:13:58 PM
OHX posted a GFS image of progged PWATs for the greater TN area a few days ago and I think the highest value was 2.65.  That's an insane amount of water in the atmosphere...near record levels they said.
In other words frog stranglers.  Flash flooding almost a guaranteed.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on July 30, 2020, 10:57:23 AM
Quote
  ...Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinity...
   Sizable spread lingers within model output concerning the synoptic
   and sub-synoptic developments Saturday through Saturday night.  In
   general, though, it appears that the lower/mid tropospheric
   perturbation will be accompanied by 30-50 kt southerly to
   southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, across the warm sector
   of a modest, slowly deepening and northeastward migrating surface
   low.  Although mid-levels may be relatively warm, boundary-layer
   moisture characterized by surface dew points in excess of 70f may
   still contribute to CAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg by Saturday afternoon.
   This should be sufficient to support the initiation of vigorous
   thunderstorm development.

   Given this environment, including favorable ambient vertical
   vorticity, and perhaps modest clockwise curved low-level hodographs,
   some supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appear
   possible, in additional to upscale growing convection capable of
   producing potential damaging wind gusts.

This is associated with a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for Day 3.   
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: gcbama on July 30, 2020, 12:45:27 PM
This is associated with a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for Day 3.

quite interesting for August/summer
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: TNHunter on July 31, 2020, 07:16:18 AM
How much yíall want to bet that the first week of August is going to be cooler than the first week of October??? LOL
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on July 31, 2020, 01:45:15 PM
Like Dyer said...3 days ago every model had 4-5 inches of rain. And now..maybe half an inch. GFS has temps in the upper 70's and low 80's for a few days with much drier DP's. In fact, Tues morning might be close to record lows albeit the UHI will prevent it in reality. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few 50's. Its just a reminder that fall isn't far away now that we are in late summer.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 31, 2020, 02:36:34 PM
I have yet to see enough to even wet the pavement. Crazy.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on July 31, 2020, 03:47:01 PM
I have yet to see enough to even wet the pavement. Crazy.

And I've had nearly three inches in the past few days.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on July 31, 2020, 05:12:18 PM
Lol. Bypassed again. A whopping 0.09Ē in the gauge. Looks like the I-40 corridor in East TN did better.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on July 31, 2020, 07:15:19 PM
Wouldn't be surprised if there was a swirling cloud or 2 here right now lol

Title: August 2020
Post by: Curt on July 31, 2020, 07:25:26 PM
I donít know if Iíve ever seen such a pleasant August night for patio weather. (Oops July)
Title: August 2020
Post by: Curt on August 01, 2020, 11:54:14 AM
Only 70. At noon. In early August. And no rain. INCREDIBLE.

Youíre not going to see very many ULLís in August right on top of us with some mild CAA.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on August 01, 2020, 12:32:10 PM
Memphis will almost certainly break the record hi min...which is 83. Donít see the sun come into out in time. Many of the August record hi minimums were set in the last 10 years. Astounding.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2020, 01:41:18 PM
Memphis will almost certainly break the record hi min...which is 83. Donít see the sun come into out in time. Many of the August record hi minimums were set in the last 10 years. Astounding.

I'm inclined to believe that is evident of climate change in our region. Summers do appear to be getting cooler and wetter, on average (though 2012 and 2016 were major exceptions, with June 2012 breaking record highs from 1936).

Meteorological autumn in Tennessee has warmed significantly. There is no question about that. The average high in September for Nashville used to be about 80 in the late 20th century, but I would not at all be surprised if the average September high for BNA is 85 when the 1991-2020 normals are eventually compiled. I acknowledge some of that is from Nashville's urban growth and the resultant UHI effect, but still, there is no question our Septembers have become very, very warm compared with those of the mid 20th century. October, too, has become much warmer.

I think our climate is also getting wetter, and this may be reflected in the 1991-2020 data compared with the 1981-2010 normals.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: JHart on August 01, 2020, 02:20:58 PM
Gusty winds, intermittent clouds swirling around a low pressure center near the Ohio River, and instability showers Ö a perfect March weather setup on August 1st.  Why not, it is 2020 after all. ::shrug::
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Matthew on August 01, 2020, 04:22:55 PM
Gusty winds, intermittent clouds swirling around a low pressure center near the Ohio River, and instability showers Ö a perfect March weather setup on August 1st.  Why not, it is 2020 after all. ::shrug::
I was thinking same thing.  Been out mowing and trimming bushes in between nice showers.  Feels wonderful out.  I was thinking what month are we in. Iím mowing 2 times a week.  It seems weird to say that and to also say here we are water logged.  Would help to have so dry days.  This year is full of surprises.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on August 01, 2020, 04:37:39 PM
Some areas in Southern Illinois look like they won't get out of the 60s today. 
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2020, 05:18:22 PM
This is the most bizarre mid summer's day I've ever seen at this latitude. This is, on average, what most of Germany is like during the summer. We're stuck in a swirl of cool air originating in the Great Lakes region. It's 73 F here, but just over 100 miles SE in Chattanooga it's 88 F.

Speaking of Germany, Western Europe is expected to torch later in the week. Paris is looking at 101 degrees F high temperatures next Saturday. Madrid is going to hit the mid 100s. London may reach the upper 90s and The Ruhr may reach 100.  ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2020, 05:23:46 PM
Check out the heat wave in Spain this coming weekend:

https://www.theweather.com/spain.htm?d=saturday
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on August 01, 2020, 05:37:04 PM
This is the most bizarre mid summer's day I've ever seen at this latitude. This is, on average, what most of Germany is like during the summer. We're stuck in a swirl of cool air originating in the Great Lakes region. It's 73 F here, but just over 100 miles SE in Chattanooga it's 88 F.

Speaking of Germany, Western Europe is expected to torch later in the week. Paris is looking at 101 degrees F high temperatures next Saturday. Madrid is going to hit the mid 100s. London may reach the upper 90s and The Ruhr may reach 100.  ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch::
Itís been weird here too. Very windy. Almost like a March day, but dry and warm. 
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Matthew on August 01, 2020, 07:38:23 PM
One of the best rainbows Iíve seen ever.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on August 02, 2020, 08:05:42 AM
It's a perfect late September morning. Cool air, a nice breeze, low humidity...we had our breakfast on the sun porch with all the windows opened up and the fresh air has the house feeling the best it has in weeks. Enjoy the morning everyone!
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on August 03, 2020, 07:49:24 AM
The rain is tantalizingly close today, but looks like it will miss just to the east. The HWY 411 corridor is going to get plastered though. Isaias is interacting with the stalled frontal boundary over the mountains.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: nrgJeff on August 03, 2020, 10:53:05 AM
Last night was gorgeous. Never thought Td 65 would feel so good; but, it does after two weeks of ludicrous humidity. Agree with Curt it's nice out now. Should last much of the week.

Yes Schneitzeit, this summer has been a classic climate change signal. Lines up with numerical models and human forecasts, hot Pac NW and Canada, less of a signal Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Regrettably that fuels skepticism locally.

Serious question since I'm new: Are we allowed to talk Climate Change on the regular forecasts threads? Typically I might mention it as forecast reasoning; but, I do not debate causes unless I'm in a Climate thread.

Finally after this week looks like a little more like July for a couple weeks, where the North heat ridge oozes into the South. I can deal if the trade-off is a nice Sept. Not holding my breath through, lol!
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on August 03, 2020, 10:48:15 PM
Serious question since I'm new: Are we allowed to talk Climate Change on the regular forecasts threads? Typically I might mention it as forecast reasoning; but, I do not debate causes unless I'm in a Climate thread.

Within reason as long as it doesnít send a thread off topic on a rabbit trail, itís fine. Otherwise, as with any change of subject, it may warrant going to a separate thread. We donít have a heavy handed policy about that here like some places. It hasnít historically been a huge hot button issue here like other places. Knock on wood.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2020, 11:10:05 PM
Last night was gorgeous. Never thought Td 65 would feel so good; but, it does after two weeks of ludicrous humidity. Agree with Curt it's nice out now. Should last much of the week.

Yes Schneitzeit, this summer has been a classic climate change signal. Lines up with numerical models and human forecasts, hot Pac NW and Canada, less of a signal Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Regrettably that fuels skepticism locally.

Serious question since I'm new: Are we allowed to talk Climate Change on the regular forecasts threads? Typically I might mention it as forecast reasoning; but, I do not debate causes unless I'm in a Climate thread.

Finally after this week looks like a little more like July for a couple weeks, where the North heat ridge oozes into the South. I can deal if the trade-off is a nice Sept. Not holding my breath through, lol!

Be warned, nrgJeff, I am known as the forum hothead around here. I'm young, dumb, and actually ran some poor schmuck off the site two years ago.

Here's a list of people I've fought with:

Matthew
dwagner88
Crockett
Heath22
WXHD
snowdog
skillsweather (KIA Dec. 2018)
BRUCE (favorite target)
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on August 03, 2020, 11:39:51 PM
Easy, tiger.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on August 05, 2020, 08:17:03 AM
Be warned, nrgJeff, I am known as the forum hothead around here. I'm young, dumb, and actually ran some poor schmuck off the site two years ago.

Here's a list of people I've fought with:

Matthew
dwagner88
Crockett
Heath22
WXHD
snowdog
skillsweather (KIA Dec. 2018)
BRUCE (favorite target)
Dang looks like a hit list


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: gcbama on August 05, 2020, 08:26:47 AM
how about these past two mornings....just beautiful
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 05, 2020, 08:41:29 AM
Be warned, nrgJeff, I am known as the forum hothead manaround here. I'm young, dumb, and actually ran some poor schmuck off the site two years ago.

Here's a list of people I've fought with:

Matthew
dwagner88
Crockett
Heath22
WXHD
snowdog
skillsweather (KIA Dec. 2018)
BRUCE (favorite target)
man... had me worried minute. Got reading your post said young and dumb, thought you were  going add the other phrase to it ... lol
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Matthew on August 05, 2020, 09:31:59 AM
Incredible wx these last few days.  One can tell that days are now getting shorter and fall is calling soon.  How quickly time goes the older one gets.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on August 05, 2020, 09:41:03 AM
Incredible wx these last few days.  One can tell that days are now getting shorter and fall is calling soon.  How quickly time goes the older one gets.
I seem to have mixed feelings about the passage of time this year. On one hand it doesn't seem like we should be this deep into 2020, but on the other hand February of 2020, which was pre-pandemic, seems like a whole lifetime ago. In any case I'm looking forward to the change of seasons and hoping for some cool, crisp, fall air at a seasonally appropriate time this year.

And even if it's in the 90s on the 1st of September we're still putting up the fall decorations and I'm baking a batch of ginger snaps with pumpkin custard. COVID, the thermometer, and other opinions be darned fall is an excuse to be happy and celebrate and we're going to go all out for it this year!
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Coach B on August 05, 2020, 10:01:30 AM
I spied a couple of readings in the 50s in rural west Tennessee this morning on the hourly obs. Nice!
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Matthew on August 05, 2020, 10:46:46 AM
I must say Iím not exactly looking forward to fall with all the sickness that could be going on.  Now if this virus disappears after Nov. 3.  Iím going to lose my crap.  🤣🤣🤣
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: snowdog on August 05, 2020, 04:05:42 PM
And even if it's in the 90s on the 1st of September we're still putting up the fall decorations and I'm baking a batch of ginger snaps with pumpkin custard. COVID, the thermometer, and other opinions be darned fall is an excuse to be happy and celebrate and we're going to go all out for it this year!

Love it. Fall in Tennessee, doesn't get much better.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: gcbama on August 05, 2020, 04:09:31 PM
Love it. Fall in Tennessee, doesn't get much better.

I agree it's just never long enough :) lol. We go from blowtorch to a few nice weeks to cold mid November and usually stay cold and then bam right into spring in feb (at least the past few years)

I wish fall could really last 5-6 weeks here, our landscape is so beautiful in tennessee
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on August 05, 2020, 06:11:09 PM
I agree it's just never long enough :) lol. We go from blowtorch to a few nice weeks to cold mid November and usually stay cold and then bam right into spring in feb (at least the past few years)

I wish fall could really last 5-6 weeks here, our landscape is so beautiful in tennessee

I am not sure I would call what happened after November the last two years as cold  :)
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 07, 2020, 09:48:55 PM
Paris, France will be 15 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than Paris, Tennessee on Saturday.  ::hot::
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on August 08, 2020, 11:45:59 AM
Paris, France will be 15 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than Paris, Tennessee on Saturday.  ::hot::

Europe at least France and Germany has had a pretty manageable summer up until about a week ago. This may also cause some virus concerns as people will want to be indoors in the AC as well (for those places that have AC). 
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: TNHunter on August 10, 2020, 06:07:04 AM
Heat advisory here today. More like August now
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on August 10, 2020, 10:24:13 AM
The skies got really dark with the cell moving over West Knox county right now, along with heavy rain and a good bit of thunder. Somehow it feels right for back to school weather.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: nrgJeff on August 10, 2020, 10:33:37 AM
Some encouraging signs after midweek August won't be so brutal. ABNA Asian Bering Sea North America pattern has shifted. USA and Canada heat shifts from Great Lakes to West (esp. US Southwest). Over in Asia the Mongolia (plus parts of Eastern Siberia) and North China heat is broken. Ridge shifts to South China.

The trick in the USA is to avoid a Southeast ridge SER when the Great Lakes heat breaks. China will have it's own SER soon. So far looks like a Desert Southwest to Texas problem. Of course Texas is not too far from the Mid South. Mid Atlantic still has some hot days, which is not too far from Appalachia.

While heat risk remains, I'm cautiously optimistic that the ABNA switch will help August downshift. Now the ABNA never really hit us with intense heat; it was the Great Lakes menace. However the loss of a ridge up there might allow more fronts. Risk is SER ahead of them, stalling them. If that can be avoided, even seasonable heat with a little lower humidity would be welcome.

August is going to be August, but I am hopeful not much worse than seasonable or slightly AN temps. Probably not a heat blowout.  8)
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: gcbama on August 10, 2020, 02:50:24 PM
look at that derecho going on in Illinois, wonder if it makes it across the lake to Detroit?
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: gcbama on August 10, 2020, 04:38:36 PM
wow we don't even talk about a significant weather event like a derecho anymore lol
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: snowdog on August 10, 2020, 05:09:14 PM
wow we don't even talk about a significant weather event like a derecho anymore lol

Some of us enjoyed both a tornado and derecho this spring.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on August 10, 2020, 05:09:54 PM
I noticed that cluster moving through earlier- looked like Chicago area was getting rocked.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: NismoWx on August 10, 2020, 07:00:17 PM
I had a frog stranger parked over the house for close to an hour. Power flickered once when the storm topped out. Good thing the guy comes to mow on Tuesdays

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on August 10, 2020, 07:24:48 PM
There are so many 75+MPH wind gusts reports (black squares with white borders) in Iowa from today's derecho that the SPC page looks white because of all of the squares stacked on top of each other.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on August 10, 2020, 08:23:16 PM
Slight Risk issued for overnight. Didn't expect to see that.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: JHart on August 10, 2020, 09:13:59 PM
I had a frog stranger parked over the house for close to an hour. Power flickered once when the storm topped out. Good thing the guy comes to mow on Tuesdays

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

Meanwhile, ten miles away we picked up 0.01 inch in a three-minute shower.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on August 11, 2020, 11:49:34 AM
There's a line of storms firing along a boundary/axis that's not moving much, stretched from northwest to southeast from the NW corner of TN, down and over to about Columbia and Shelbyville. This is a recipe for localized flooding if it doesn't move on.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on August 11, 2020, 11:51:50 AM
Meanwhile, ten miles away we picked up 0.01 inch in a three-minute shower.
[mention]BRUCE [/mention] (https://media2.giphy.com/media/WqKjoaJLh1etnY96HB/giphy.gif)(https://media0.giphy.com/media/ckNtdJE7zHKton7So4/giphy.gif)[mention]BRUCE [/mention]
We
[mention]Crockett [/mention] is r
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Crockett on August 11, 2020, 12:59:44 PM
[mention]BRUCE [/mention] (https://media2.giphy.com/media/WqKjoaJLh1etnY96HB/giphy.gif)(https://media0.giphy.com/media/ckNtdJE7zHKton7So4/giphy.gif)[mention]BRUCE [/mention]
We
[mention]Crockett [/mention] is r

Wait, what?  ;D What is this?
Title: August 2020
Post by: Curt on August 11, 2020, 01:01:56 PM
Wait, what?  ;D What is this?
Um I didnít send this. Weird. Is it possible that I got hacked??

I have a new iPhone 11. Itís been in my back pocket while working today. Wonder if it was just the ďbuttĒ post of the ages. I did make some calls without knowing. I kinda like it though especially the Scooby Doo reference lol.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on August 11, 2020, 01:21:15 PM
Um I didnít send this. Weird. Is it possible that I got hacked??

I have a new iPhone 11. Itís been in my back pocket while working today. Wonder if it was just the ďbuttĒ post of the ages. I did make some calls without knowing. I kinda like it though lol.

I personally think it's an accurate assessment of the situation as well as the named individuals.

 ::rofl::
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on August 11, 2020, 01:23:09 PM
I personally think it's an accurate assessment of the situation as well as the named individuals.
Me too. I love it was Bruce AND Crockett
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Crockett on August 11, 2020, 01:46:42 PM
I am still as lost as a blind man in a hurricane. What is being implied here?  :o
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on August 11, 2020, 02:00:15 PM
I am still as lost as a blind man in a hurricane. What is being implied here?  :o
Nothing to implicate other than somehow it randomly picked 2 long time members. I really think these new phones are just over the top sensitive. I found a couple of texts that were word salad. Just bizarre all the way around.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on August 11, 2020, 02:19:37 PM
I am still as lost as a blind man in a hurricane. What is being implied here?  :o

A butt post by Curt and then a friendly jab by me- I added the rofl man to my post so it's not taken the wrong way.  ;)
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2020, 02:22:48 PM
I just started rolling after these last few posts.  ::rofl::  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on August 11, 2020, 02:49:55 PM
On another note...GFS Ensemble is picking up on another major cool down for this time of year in a week or so. The GFS is almost fall like with 70ís for highs and low 50ís at night.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 11, 2020, 03:18:15 PM
On another note...GFS Ensemble is picking up on another major cool down for this time of year in a week or so. The GFS is almost fall like with 70ís for highs and low 50ís at night.
saw that ... think Iím ready for it myself  even lol
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: TNHunter on August 11, 2020, 03:44:24 PM
On another note...GFS Ensemble is picking up on another major cool down for this time of year in a week or so. The GFS is almost fall like with 70ís for highs and low 50ís at night.

Wow...that would be awesome. Here is to hoping we have a true and early fall!
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: NismoWx on August 11, 2020, 05:46:49 PM
Meanwhile, ten miles away we picked up 0.01 inch in a three-minute shower.
Really? I thought for sure it extended that far east.. That stinks.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2020, 07:09:38 PM
The CPC has it on their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook.

The ridging in the Desert Southwest is really helping us avoid the worst of the heat that can get us this time of year.   
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: TNHunter on August 13, 2020, 08:31:45 PM
Not seeing these cool temps that Curt was telling us about a few days ago???  Iíd love some 70s and low 50s about now.  Iíve about had my fill of heat for the year. Ready to close that pool early!
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on August 14, 2020, 04:54:43 AM
It is still a 5-10 degree drop in temperature and a 10 point degree drop in dew point.  It may not be pure Fall-like, but it is whole lot better than Wenatchee, Washington having a low of 76 and a high of 104F next Monday with several 100 days to follow.   
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 14, 2020, 05:52:09 AM
Wake me up when November  gets here... this weather here is a snooze feast ... ::sleeping::
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: nrgJeff on August 14, 2020, 12:07:46 PM
Specifically, wake me up after the election in November. If no college hoops, wake me up in April after the time change. Well, maybe a ski break mid-winter.

Weather pattern looks fairly benign here heat-wise. Need to get through the Mountain flooding risk this weekend though. Couple days next week look lovely with low humidity.

Then teleconnections support the hottest anomalies Rockies/West to the Upper Midwest end of Aug. Leaves us seasonable temps. I'm not as optimistic as below normal temps for more than a few days at a time.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: JHart on August 14, 2020, 01:44:15 PM
Really? I thought for sure it extended that far east.. That stinks.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk
It all balances out in the long run.  A few years ago, while the sun shone in Walter Hill, we picked up three inches of rain in an hour, lightning set our neighbor's roof on fire, and a microburst caved in our garage door.  That summer day got a little too frisky for my taste and budget.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on August 14, 2020, 01:46:43 PM
Plenty of storms around this week, but I can't seem to buy a drop of rain. Nothing measurable in the bucket since last Sunday. Wednesday it thundered for about 2 hours straight but never rained.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on August 14, 2020, 01:56:09 PM
Not seeing these cool temps that Curt was telling us about a few days ago???  Iíd love some 70s and low 50s about now.  Iíve about had my fill of heat for the year. Ready to close that pool early!

Looks like a few days of low to mid 80's are possible with DP's perhaps in the 50's at night. Still a breeze for mid August and certainly the dog days of summer.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: TNHunter on August 14, 2020, 02:49:59 PM
Picked up just shy of 4 inches here this week.  Add that to the foot or more we have had in the last 30-40 days.  Jeez....please stop raining IMBY! LOL
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 14, 2020, 05:44:53 PM
Picked up just shy of 4 inches here this week.  Add that to the foot or more we have had in the last 30-40 days.  Jeez....please stop raining IMBY! LOL

Please let this be snow in a few months
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Beth on August 14, 2020, 07:28:39 PM
Wow! I bet we have had a good inch or more here this evening. Heavy rain for the last hour and a half!  Crazy! 
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: WXHD on August 14, 2020, 07:53:31 PM
Finally getting some rain. Iíve been in a drought dome as it has rained just a neighborhood or two over for the last several days.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on August 14, 2020, 08:19:44 PM
Another forecast bomb for the 2nd or 3rd day in a row now east of 65.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 14, 2020, 08:23:25 PM
I'm getting blasted for the second evening in row, right at the same time as yesterday.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on August 15, 2020, 08:53:32 AM
This heavy rain is just parked over a big chunk of East TN this morning. Not sure when it will move out but we're going to have flooding problems by that time. Stay safe out there everybody!
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 15, 2020, 10:08:23 AM
Williamson County has had dense fog the past few mornings. Feels like fall.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 15, 2020, 04:24:22 PM
Williamson County has had dense fog the past few mornings. Feels like fall.
Every fog in August is a snow this winter. Use to count them every year with my grandma growing up.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 15, 2020, 04:44:38 PM
Every fog in August is a snow this winter. Use to count them every year with my grandma growing up.

I've had at least three of them this week. I'll cash in now.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: TNHunter on August 15, 2020, 05:23:27 PM
Every fog in August is a snow this winter. Use to count them every year with my grandma growing up.

How well did that usually work out?
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 15, 2020, 08:41:38 PM
How well did that usually work out?
about like how many days in November you get thunder... lol actually this time last year was a much foggy august, so that tells u there
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: NismoWx on August 16, 2020, 01:42:53 AM
Hit fog again between Blackman and Walter Hill coming home. Hit a skunk, too.

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Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 16, 2020, 09:37:21 AM
Usually a cloud of fog over my back porch around 8:30PM in the evening.....
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Eric on August 16, 2020, 09:48:19 AM
Hit fog again between Blackman and Walter Hill coming home. Hit a skunk, too.

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That stinks.


I'll see myself out.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: NismoWx on August 16, 2020, 10:44:41 AM
That stinks.


I'll see myself out.
*groan*

Don't let the door knob hit ya where The Good Lord split ya!

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Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 16, 2020, 10:49:44 AM
How well did that usually work out?
Very well in the 70s and early 80s.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: TNHunter on August 16, 2020, 12:12:45 PM
Very well in the 70s and early 80s.

Getting old there 😉
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on August 16, 2020, 04:25:52 PM
That stinks.


I'll see myself out.

Ladies and gentlemen, he's here all week!
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on August 16, 2020, 07:49:41 PM
Dew point  at Memphis is 57 and Jonesboro is 52. Nice patio weather.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Matthew on August 16, 2020, 10:34:20 PM
Dew point  at Memphis is 57 and Jonesboro is 52. Nice patio weather.
On screen porch as I type this.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: TNHunter on August 17, 2020, 08:18:40 AM
The days are definitely starting to give hints to the fast approaching fall.  Sun angle is noticeably different each week driving to and from work, sitting in my classroom, or on the porch at home.  Saw a large migration of about 40-50 Mississippi Kites last Friday.  Had been seeing about 8-10 black bellied whistling ducks pretty regular all summer and they have vanished since the first week of August, as they are photo-migrators just like bluewing teal.  Nighthawks will soon start to migrate out of the area as well.  The resident geese are hitting cut silage fields much more regular and seen flying more often.  Not sure how many of ya'll are bird people, but you can check radar loops across the nation from the previous evening/night and you can see large concentrations of birds show up on radar. Mostly starlings, blackbirds, purple martins, swallows, herons, egrets, etc this time of year.  Even butterfly migrations have shown up on radar loops.

Here is a link to use for radar loops across the country to pick up on bird migrations.
 Can adjust it to better pick up on biological features.
 http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on August 17, 2020, 08:30:29 AM
Yep- about this time, the "tilt" starts to really gain momentum, which makes the shortening daylight at either end of the day more noticeable.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: nrgJeff on August 18, 2020, 01:28:47 PM
Yes TNHunter the shadows and sun angle hint of fall before the temps. Though I can't complain this week. Actually grabbed a jacket for an early morning call outside. Thanks for sharing about the birds too. They notice better than us.

Looks like reasonable temps for at least a week if not 10 days. End of August and early September might be a little hotter than normal. Other guidance keeps moderate. Either way the West and Plains seem to be the heat focus. Much will depend on tropical outcomes.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: StormNine on August 18, 2020, 03:36:40 PM
Some of the longer term models do suggest a more average September.

September just like December has tended to be a blowtorch city here recently so we see about that.  A lot will depend on the tropics as tropical storms do tend to strengthen ridges that they flank at least in the short-term. 

Here is Nashville's performace during the last 10 or so Septembers in departure from average:

2019: +8.9 (2nd Warmest on Record)  ::blowtorch::  ::blowtorch::
2018: +5.8 (7th or 8th Warmest on Record I believe)  ::blowtorch::
2017: +0.3
2016: +4.5  ::blowtorch::
2015: +2.6
2014: +1.5
2013: +1.6
2012:  -0.6
2011: -2.4 (multiple days in the 60s and 70s what the actual heck)   ::cold::
2010: +1.9
2009: +0.8
2008: +2.4
2007: +4.3  ::blowtorch::
2006: -0.1
2005:  +3.6  ::blowtorch::

Out of the last 15 or so Septembers, Nashville (since I remember a lot of these they were largely representive of the whole region)  has had the follow

4 Septembers that were average (+ or - 1 degree): 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2017

1 September that was solidly below average: 2011

5 September's that were pure torches (+3 or above): 2005, 2007, 2016, 2018, and 2019

The rest were still summer-like but not to the level of the pure torches. 

3 out of our last 4 September's were well above average in our area.   

Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: gcbama on August 18, 2020, 04:14:33 PM
Some of the longer term models do suggest a more average September.

September just like December has tended to be a blowtorch city here recently so we see about that.  A lot will depend on the tropics as tropical storms do tend to strengthen ridges that they flank at least in the short-term. 

Here is Nashville's performace during the last 10 or so Septembers in departure from average:

2019: +8.9 (2nd Warmest on Record)  ::blowtorch::  ::blowtorch::
2018: +5.8 (7th or 8th Warmest on Record I believe)  ::blowtorch::
2017: +0.3
2016: +4.5  ::blowtorch::
2015: +2.6
2014: +1.5
2013: +1.6
2012:  -0.6
2011: -2.4 (multiple days in the 60s and 70s what the actual heck)   ::cold::
2010: +1.9
2009: +0.8
2008: +2.4
2007: +4.3  ::blowtorch::
2006: -0.1
2005:  +3.6  ::blowtorch::

Out of the last 15 or so Septembers, Nashville (since I remember a lot of these they were largely representive of the whole region)  has had the follow

4 Septembers that were average (+ or - 1 degree): 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2017

1 September that was solidly below average: 2011

5 September's that were pure torches (+3 or above): 2005, 2007, 2016, 2018, and 2019

The rest were still summer-like but not to the level of the pure torches. 

3 out of our last 4 September's were well above average in our area.

2018 my cousin had outdoor wedding in LATE sept it was 93 and dewpoint in upper 60's it was miserable by that time of year should be mid to upper 70's MAYBE low 80's
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on August 18, 2020, 05:36:38 PM
2018 my cousin had outdoor wedding in LATE sept it was 93 and dewpoint in upper 60's it was miserable by that time of year should be mid to upper 70's MAYBE low 80's
My sister got married outside on 10/6/2018. It was 88. The ceremony was in a field with zero shade at 4 PM. Full tuxedos. I've never sweat so much while remaining stationary in my life.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: NismoWx on August 18, 2020, 09:59:11 PM
Definitely just had some small hail here accompanying a deluge. Wasn't expecting storms after dark but it's a welcomed surprise. My yard needed the rain. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200819/fc958fa4dac437a0fd476660c25dce6f.jpg)

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Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: TNHunter on August 19, 2020, 06:01:55 AM
The return to reality starts next week. Highs of 90 to low 90s.  Figures, dove season opens in about 10 days. September will likely torch and probably October, oh well what are you going to do.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: NismoWx on August 19, 2020, 06:09:57 AM
The return to reality starts next week. Highs of 90 to low 90s.  Figures, dove season opens in about 10 days. September will likely torch and probably October, oh well what are you going to do.  ::shrug::
What am I going to do? Go trim shooting lanes this morning before it gets back in the 90s!!

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Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: TNHunter on August 19, 2020, 02:39:22 PM
Wow, it is 90 degrees right now in Saskatoon, Canada 99 in Regina, Canada and only 79-80 here in west Tennessee.  Lol that is wild.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Matthew on August 19, 2020, 07:58:43 PM
These last few days especially afternoon and evenings have been beautiful sunsets and pleasant out. My opinion this has been a great summer.  Humid yes but we have had rain and everything is green.  Thank you 2020 for giving us a break from bad wx like we had early in 2020.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: bugalou on August 22, 2020, 02:25:43 PM
It's down hill from  here boys and girls!  It will be winter soon enough.  I really hope this ones more eventful than the past 3 years.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Curt on August 23, 2020, 03:24:12 PM
Long range GEFS picking up on a major cool down in about a week. Highs in the 60ís for early September.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: justinmundie on August 23, 2020, 03:28:13 PM
Regular GFS has been hinting too.

Itís almost like two hurricanes back to back create a weakness allowing the jet to buckle pretty hard.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: TNHunter on August 24, 2020, 05:34:12 PM
Almost hitting the best time of year. Canít wait to see the first high of 70-75 and low of 45-55 in the forecast.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Clay on August 24, 2020, 07:13:57 PM
Regular GFS has been hinting too.

Itís almost like two hurricanes back to back create a weakness allowing the jet to buckle pretty hard.
Even B'ham could get licked by an inland hurricane given a favorable track. Any history you know of?
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: bugalou on August 28, 2020, 09:57:51 AM
ooooo!

(https://i.imgur.com/UMCMduO.jpg)
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on August 28, 2020, 10:18:52 AM
GFS is showing something similar, too. Can't wait.

(https://media1.giphy.com/media/CiTLZWskt7Fu/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e478lonrcon4736xo1nw0n0yj8ly4vd6tc498br72vi&rid=giphy.gif)
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 29, 2020, 02:30:42 PM
It's like a pressure cooker outside. All of this rain plus a pretty hot day makes for sultry air.
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on August 30, 2020, 04:27:17 PM
This is a pretty suspect cell just west of Ashland City currently

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: NismoWx on August 30, 2020, 04:39:44 PM
This is a pretty suspect cell just west of Ashland City currently

(Attachment Link)
It's been holding some impressive structure since the TN River. I'm not around my computer to jump into Chat to see what OHX is saying about it.

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Title: Re: August 2020
Post by: nrgJeff on September 02, 2020, 09:44:12 AM
Looking for trouble Friday 8/28. Went to Franklin, Tenn first, knowing it's easier to adjust southwest than to northeast. Eventually had to drop down into North Alabama. Near Cullman, AL. Anyone surprised? LOL

I did not document any of those tornadoes (West Point or Eva, AL). However structure was rewarding on the chase.