Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: Curt on April 27, 2020, 01:39:00 PM

Title: May 2020
Post by: Curt on April 27, 2020, 01:39:00 PM
Here we go with another month. We will be halfway through the year in 60 days. Unreal.

Outside of this weekend, 80ís are nowhere in sight through mid May. We may see some NW flow events but the cool pattern is going to stay. Absolutely zero complaints here.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on April 27, 2020, 02:23:31 PM
Here we go with another month. We will be halfway through the year in 60 days. Unreal.

Outside of this weekend, 80ís are nowhere in sight through mid May. We may see some NW flow events but the cool pattern is going to stay. Absolutely zero complaints here.

agreed :). also seems spring severe weather season is over as well, as usually early mid may things shift to the plains and Midwest...
soon will be time for heat and humidity and pop up storms and mcs storm systems
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on April 27, 2020, 02:42:47 PM
agreed :). also seems spring severe weather season is over as well, as usually early mid may things shift to the plains and Midwest...
soon will be time for heat and humidity and pop up storms and mcs storm systems
yeah Iím ready for the heat humidity too...bring it. Hoping praying for s strong NiŮa going winter ... NiŮo s. Suck
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on April 27, 2020, 03:41:15 PM
NiŮos suck? You're crazy, man. I love 35 degree rain.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 01, 2020, 10:10:55 AM
Today is the 10-year anniversary of one of the most widespread and devastating events in West and Middle Tennessee.  We have been going through so much this year in 2020 with the tornadoes and COVID that we don't even fully realize the historic events of just 10 years ago. 
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2020, 10:12:51 AM
Today is the 10-year anniversary of one of the most widespread and devastating events in West and Middle Tennessee.  We have been going through so much this year in 2020 with the tornadoes and COVID that we don't even fully realize the historic events of just 10 years ago.

Yep- I've been reflecting a lot on the events of that weekend. Crazy it's been a decade now.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 01, 2020, 12:58:09 PM
Since we're bored with no weather for the moment... who wants to take a crack at this. Name the date this product comes from  ;)

Code: [Select]
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE..INCLUDING WEST
TENNESSEE..NORTH MISSISSIPPI..EAST ARKANSAS..AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA..INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE..NORTH MISSISSIPPI..EAST
ARKANSAS..AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL..LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP UNSEASONABLY
MILD..MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE..A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST. THESE ARE ALL KEY INGREDIENTS FOR A MAJOR SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IGNITE AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A HIGH RISK MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A DANGEROUS SITUATION EXISTS WITH
STRONG POTENTIAL FOR KILLER TORNADOES..VERY LARGE HAIL..DEVASTATING
WINDSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD PROPERTY DAMAGE. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ERUPT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PERSONS LIVING IN WEST TENNESSEE..NORTH MISSISSIPPI..EAST
ARKANSAS..AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS
POTENTIAL DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO..COMMERCIAL RADIO..TV AND CABLE
TELEVISION OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 01, 2020, 02:25:01 PM
Since we're bored with no weather for the moment... who wants to take a crack at this. Name the date this product comes from  ;)

Code: [Select]
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE..INCLUDING WEST
TENNESSEE..NORTH MISSISSIPPI..EAST ARKANSAS..AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA..INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE..NORTH MISSISSIPPI..EAST
ARKANSAS..AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL..LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP UNSEASONABLY
MILD..MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE..A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST. THESE ARE ALL KEY INGREDIENTS FOR A MAJOR SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IGNITE AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A HIGH RISK MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A DANGEROUS SITUATION EXISTS WITH
STRONG POTENTIAL FOR KILLER TORNADOES..VERY LARGE HAIL..DEVASTATING
WINDSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD PROPERTY DAMAGE. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ERUPT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PERSONS LIVING IN WEST TENNESSEE..NORTH MISSISSIPPI..EAST
ARKANSAS..AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS
POTENTIAL DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO..COMMERCIAL RADIO..TV AND CABLE
TELEVISION OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

5-1-10? correction that can't be right because it says unseasonably mild air lol...I will guess super tuesday
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2020, 02:25:34 PM
Since we're bored with no weather for the moment... who wants to take a crack at this. Name the date this product comes from  ;)

Code: [Select]
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE..INCLUDING WEST
TENNESSEE..NORTH MISSISSIPPI..EAST ARKANSAS..AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA..INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE..NORTH MISSISSIPPI..EAST
ARKANSAS..AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL..LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP UNSEASONABLY
MILD..MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE..A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST. THESE ARE ALL KEY INGREDIENTS FOR A MAJOR SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IGNITE AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A HIGH RISK MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A DANGEROUS SITUATION EXISTS WITH
STRONG POTENTIAL FOR KILLER TORNADOES..VERY LARGE HAIL..DEVASTATING
WINDSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD PROPERTY DAMAGE. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ERUPT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PERSONS LIVING IN WEST TENNESSEE..NORTH MISSISSIPPI..EAST
ARKANSAS..AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS
POTENTIAL DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO..COMMERCIAL RADIO..TV AND CABLE
TELEVISION OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.
january 21 1999?
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 01, 2020, 02:54:01 PM
5-1-10? correction that can't be right because it says unseasonably mild air lol...I will guess super tuesday

Not bad guesses at all...but not correct

january 21 1999?

Bruce is the winner!!!  ;D



Okay here is (probably) an easy one. Two actually...in succession to see how things changed in a hurry. One issued at 9:45 PM...the next not until 4:03 AM the next morning. This was back when things were done on a state level....not CWA like today...

Code: [Select]
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH OF TENNESSEE TONIGHT. A
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CLARKSVILLE..NASHVILLE ..LAWRENCEBURG..AND
FAYETTEVILLE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS..JACKSON..UNION CITY AND PARIS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF EAST TENNESSEE. THEREFORE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
INCLUDING CROSSVILLE HAS BEEN CANCELED.

WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI MOVES NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THIS AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF FROM THE WEST BUT ICY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF WEST
AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT.

IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE..CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWER LINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED CAUSING THEM
TO FALL WITH POWER OUTAGES IN SOME AREAS. FLOODING IN SOUTH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS ALSO AGGRAVATING THE PROBLEMS. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER
LINES. DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

IN WEST TENNESSEE..THE PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER..MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT IN WEST TENNESSEE.
IN ADDITION..SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON TREES AND
POWER LINES IN THOSE COUNTIES OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.     

THE ICY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN..CONTINUE TO MONITOR TELEVISION..COMMERCIAL
RADIO..OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

Code: [Select]
...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE
UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING...
 
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WEST TENNESSEE UNTIL 8 AM
THIS MORNING. THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS...
JACKSON...DYERSBURG AND PARIS TENNESSEE.
 
FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER WEST TENNESSEE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DANGEROUS. AREA ROADS
ARE COVERED WITH ICE MAKING THEM EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS. THE ICE
HAS ALSO COLLAPSED POWER LINES THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN
TENNESSEE INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS...JACKSON AND DYERSBURG AREAS.
THUS MANY RESIDENTS ARE WITHOUT ELECTRICITY. TREES OR
LARGE TREE LIMBS ARE ALSO DOWN ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS.
 
DO NOT DRIVE WHERE ROADS ARE ICY UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF
YOU MUST DRIVE...TRAVEL WELL BELOW NORMAL SPEEDS. REMEMBER
ROADS ARE ESPECIALLY SLIPPERY OVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
PERSONS GOING OUT OF DOORS SHOULD ALSO STAY ALERT FOR FALLING
TREE LIMBS OR POWER LINES...WHICH MAY CAUSE INJURY OR DEATH.
 
IN AREAS OF POWER OUTAGES...NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK ON THE
ELDERLY SINCE PERSONS WILL BE WITHOUT HEAT DURING THE COLD
WEATHER.
 
MOST OF THE FREEZING RAIN WILL END BY 8 AM THIS MORNING BUT
ROADS WILL REMAIN ICY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME MELTING MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BUT
ICE MAY REMAIN OVER MANY LOCATIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
 
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION AND
RADIO STATIONS FOR FURTHER WEATHER UPDATES.

Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2020, 03:12:42 PM
Not bad guesses at all...but not correct

Bruce is the winner!!!  ;D



Okay here is (probably) an easy one. Two actually...in succession to see how things changed in a hurry. One issued at 9:45 PM...the next not until 4:03 AM the next morning. This was back when things were done on a state level....not CWA like today...

Code: [Select]
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH OF TENNESSEE TONIGHT. A
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CLARKSVILLE..NASHVILLE ..LAWRENCEBURG..AND
FAYETTEVILLE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS..JACKSON..UNION CITY AND PARIS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF EAST TENNESSEE. THEREFORE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
INCLUDING CROSSVILLE HAS BEEN CANCELED.

WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI MOVES NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THIS AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF FROM THE WEST BUT ICY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF WEST
AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT.

IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE..CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWER LINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED CAUSING THEM
TO FALL WITH POWER OUTAGES IN SOME AREAS. FLOODING IN SOUTH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS ALSO AGGRAVATING THE PROBLEMS. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER
LINES. DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

IN WEST TENNESSEE..THE PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER..MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT IN WEST TENNESSEE.
IN ADDITION..SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON TREES AND
POWER LINES IN THOSE COUNTIES OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.     

THE ICY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN..CONTINUE TO MONITOR TELEVISION..COMMERCIAL
RADIO..OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

Code: [Select]
...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE
UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING...
 
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WEST TENNESSEE UNTIL 8 AM
THIS MORNING. THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS...
JACKSON...DYERSBURG AND PARIS TENNESSEE.
 
FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER WEST TENNESSEE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DANGEROUS. AREA ROADS
ARE COVERED WITH ICE MAKING THEM EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS. THE ICE
HAS ALSO COLLAPSED POWER LINES THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN
TENNESSEE INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS...JACKSON AND DYERSBURG AREAS.
THUS MANY RESIDENTS ARE WITHOUT ELECTRICITY. TREES OR
LARGE TREE LIMBS ARE ALSO DOWN ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS.
 
DO NOT DRIVE WHERE ROADS ARE ICY UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF
YOU MUST DRIVE...TRAVEL WELL BELOW NORMAL SPEEDS. REMEMBER
ROADS ARE ESPECIALLY SLIPPERY OVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
PERSONS GOING OUT OF DOORS SHOULD ALSO STAY ALERT FOR FALLING
TREE LIMBS OR POWER LINES...WHICH MAY CAUSE INJURY OR DEATH.
 
IN AREAS OF POWER OUTAGES...NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK ON THE
ELDERLY SINCE PERSONS WILL BE WITHOUT HEAT DURING THE COLD
WEATHER.
 
MOST OF THE FREEZING RAIN WILL END BY 8 AM THIS MORNING BUT
ROADS WILL REMAIN ICY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME MELTING MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BUT
ICE MAY REMAIN OVER MANY LOCATIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
 
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION AND
RADIO STATIONS FOR FURTHER WEATHER UPDATES.

February 1994?
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 01, 2020, 03:14:01 PM
Not bad guesses at all...but not correct

Bruce is the winner!!!  ;D



Okay here is (probably) an easy one. Two actually...in succession to see how things changed in a hurry. One issued at 9:45 PM...the next not until 4:03 AM the next morning. This was back when things were done on a state level....not CWA like today...

Code: [Select]
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH OF TENNESSEE TONIGHT. A
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CLARKSVILLE..NASHVILLE ..LAWRENCEBURG..AND
FAYETTEVILLE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS..JACKSON..UNION CITY AND PARIS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF EAST TENNESSEE. THEREFORE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
INCLUDING CROSSVILLE HAS BEEN CANCELED.

WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI MOVES NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THIS AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF FROM THE WEST BUT ICY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF WEST
AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT.

IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE..CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWER LINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED CAUSING THEM
TO FALL WITH POWER OUTAGES IN SOME AREAS. FLOODING IN SOUTH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS ALSO AGGRAVATING THE PROBLEMS. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER
LINES. DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

IN WEST TENNESSEE..THE PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER..MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT IN WEST TENNESSEE.
IN ADDITION..SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON TREES AND
POWER LINES IN THOSE COUNTIES OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.     

THE ICY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN..CONTINUE TO MONITOR TELEVISION..COMMERCIAL
RADIO..OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

Code: [Select]
...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE
UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING...
 
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WEST TENNESSEE UNTIL 8 AM
THIS MORNING. THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS...
JACKSON...DYERSBURG AND PARIS TENNESSEE.
 
FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER WEST TENNESSEE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DANGEROUS. AREA ROADS
ARE COVERED WITH ICE MAKING THEM EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS. THE ICE
HAS ALSO COLLAPSED POWER LINES THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN
TENNESSEE INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS...JACKSON AND DYERSBURG AREAS.
THUS MANY RESIDENTS ARE WITHOUT ELECTRICITY. TREES OR
LARGE TREE LIMBS ARE ALSO DOWN ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS.
 
DO NOT DRIVE WHERE ROADS ARE ICY UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF
YOU MUST DRIVE...TRAVEL WELL BELOW NORMAL SPEEDS. REMEMBER
ROADS ARE ESPECIALLY SLIPPERY OVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
PERSONS GOING OUT OF DOORS SHOULD ALSO STAY ALERT FOR FALLING
TREE LIMBS OR POWER LINES...WHICH MAY CAUSE INJURY OR DEATH.
 
IN AREAS OF POWER OUTAGES...NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK ON THE
ELDERLY SINCE PERSONS WILL BE WITHOUT HEAT DURING THE COLD
WEATHER.
 
MOST OF THE FREEZING RAIN WILL END BY 8 AM THIS MORNING BUT
ROADS WILL REMAIN ICY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME MELTING MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BUT
ICE MAY REMAIN OVER MANY LOCATIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
 
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION AND
RADIO STATIONS FOR FURTHER WEATHER UPDATES.

94 right?

question does anybody remember the ice event in 98-99 I think it was...I know here in Hohenwald we had at least .75 inches of freezing rain during that storm, but I cannot find records of it...but I remember it well, was sledding for days in my front yard
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2020, 03:24:19 PM
94 right?

question does anybody remember the ice event in 98-99 I think it was...I know here in Hohenwald we had at least .75 inches of freezing rain during that storm, but I cannot find records of it...but I remember it well, was sledding for days in my front yard
beat me to it. Feb 94
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 01, 2020, 03:32:28 PM
Yep...figure that one is fairly easy. That was between the evening of Feb 10-11, 1994.

If you're wondering where this is from... the Iowa Environmental Mesonet has updated it's NWS Text archive to go back to 1993...so you can see all the various products being issued per office (as well as the national NWS centers) on a given day. Even now defunct products like the LFP and SFD (local forecast product and state forecast discussion). The stuff especially '95 and earlier is really scattershot so you may see something you may not... and gets more complete with time after that.

For TN...except for severe warnings...through the 90s again most stuff was issued on a state level so a lot of Middle/East TN events might be covered and found under the Memphis office. Things were a lot different in the NWS structure at that time. But...it's a fascinating new way to look into some events past.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2020, 03:37:17 PM
Yep...figure that one is fairly easy. That was between the evening of Feb 10-11, 1994.

If you're wondering where this is from... the Iowa Environmental Mesonet has updated it's NWS Text archive to go back to 1993...so you can see all the various products being issued per office (as well as the national NWS centers) on a given day. Even now defunct products like the LFP and SFD (local forecast product and state forecast discussion). The stuff especially '95 and earlier is really scattershot so you may see something you may not... and gets more complete with time after that.

For TN...except for severe warnings...through the 90s again most stuff was issued on a state level so a lot of Middle/East TN events might be covered and found under the Memphis office. Things were a lot different in the NWS structure at that time. But...it's a fascinating new way to look into some events past.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml
pick out another big event ... like playing this game lol
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 01, 2020, 03:43:49 PM
pick out another big event ... like playing this game lol

This one is too easy for Memphis
Code: [Select]
TORNADO WARNING UNTIL 400 PM FOR EASTERN SHELBY AND WESTERN FAYETTE
COUNTIES IN WEST TENNESSEE.
 
AT 330 PM..RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO ALONG THE FAYETTE-SHELBY
COUNTY LINE ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN MACON AND CORDOVA..ABOUT 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF EADS. THIS STORM CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50 MILES AN
HOUR AND WILL THREATEN THE OAKLAND AND MACON AREAS BEFORE 4 PM.
 
DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 72 NEAR GERMANTOWN..AND PARTS OF
THE HIGHWAY ARE BLOCKED BY TREES AND DEBRIS.
 
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM SITUATION. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

This below is **not** the same day...but something from SPC on a different day
Code: [Select]
REF WW NUMBER 0226...VALID TIL 0180Z
REF WW NUMBER 0228...VALID TIL 0210Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TN/AL/MS/ERN AR AND
EXTREME NW GA.  THIS AREA LIES TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E PBF 30 NNE MEM 40 ENE DYR 30 NE BNA 35 NNE CSV 40 N TYS
10 E TYS 25 E CHA 20 WNW RMG 30 SSE HSV CBM 30 SSE GWO 50 E MLU
35 NE MLU 30 E PBF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE PSB 35 W ABE TTN ACY 10 ENE WAL 10 E ORF 20 NNE RWI
25 SE CLT CSG 50 NNE MOB LFT 30 SW POE 25 ESE GGG 20 SSE TXK
20 W JBR PAH 25 NE EVV IND 30 SE SBN 15 SSW GRR 15 N LAN 25 E TOL
20 NW YNG PIT LBE 20 SE PSB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 45 S LFK
20 NW LFK 15 W GGG 25 WNW TXK 55 SE HRO CGI 25 SSW HUF 25 NNW LAF
CGX 20 WNW MKE 25 NNE GRB 25 E PLN ...CONT... 25 NE PBG 15 N BID
...CONT... 25 SSW MYR 25 SW SAV VLD AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 25 E 3HT
55 NNW CPR FCL 45 WSW CAO 25 SE LVS 25 SE GNT 40 SE E03 25 E PRC
25 NE IGM 20 ENE LAS 50 E TPH U31 15 NE WMC 45 E BNO 35 NNW 63S.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH SEASONABLY FAST WSW FLOW CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES.  UPPER TROF OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO SRN ONTARIO...AS ASSOCIATED
BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SWEEPS NE INTO WRN NY/PA.

AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MS VALLEY TROF EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING SRN
PORTION MOVES MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES.  E/W-
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY DRIFT
ONLY SLOWLY ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD...REINFORCED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ALONG IT LATER TODAY.   

...TN VALLEY...
EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS FEATURE REMAINS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FAST WSW JET ALOFT.
SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER E TX AT THE MOMENT.  CONTINUED ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING...SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE UVV AND
SEVERE THREAT ALONG BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.  PRESENCE
OF COMPARATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 12/
RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS WILL BE OFFSET BY INFLUX OF VERY RICH
GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THREAT WILL BE
HIGH FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.     

FARTHER N...WARM ADVECTION ABOVE COOL DOME ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH UPLIFT ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
SUGGESTS CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF ERN IND/OH/LWR MI.  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW
FOR SURFACE HEATING INVOF SURFACE LOW AS NEWD-MOVING COOL POOL
ROTATES NEWD ON N SIDE OF MID MS VALLEY UPPER JET.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THE MOMENT
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ENCOUNTERS REGION OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND FAST FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...CORFIDI...
Code: [Select]
STATUS REPORT ON WW NUMBER 228

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM 10 NW DYR TO 60 WSW MEM.

ONE INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR PARSONS TN AT 1922Z.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...RAPID FORMATION OF SEVERAL STRONG SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS HAS OCCURRED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THE STORMS ARE
CENTERED WITHIN THE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE LATEST SBCAPE IS
2500-3500 J/KG.  KOHX WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH 75 KNOT 500 MB WIND.  USING STORM MOTION
OF 250/40 KNOTS...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS NEAR 400 M2/S2.

SINCE AN EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS INCLUDING
A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES. 

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT 30 MINUTES FROM
CENTRAL TENNESSEE TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PERHAPS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. 
Code: [Select]
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

   TENNESSEE                         
   WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA                     

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES.  ALSO...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE
TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 228...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 230.  WATCH NUMBER 228...230 WILL
NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 400 PM CDT.  CONTINUE...WW 231...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF EXISTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED ROUGHLY E/W ACROSS WATCH REGION....WHERE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL FOCUS BENEATH EXIT REGION OF HIGH
LEVEL JET STREAK NOW ENTERING ERN AR. 

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES.  EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.  A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 480.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 01, 2020, 04:14:59 PM
Do the one for my Christmas blizzard that did not happen
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2020, 04:16:32 PM
This one is too easy for Memphis
Code: [Select]
TORNADO WARNING UNTIL 400 PM FOR EASTERN SHELBY AND WESTERN FAYETTE
COUNTIES IN WEST TENNESSEE.
 
AT 330 PM..RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO ALONG THE FAYETTE-SHELBY
COUNTY LINE ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN MACON AND CORDOVA..ABOUT 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF EADS. THIS STORM CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50 MILES AN
HOUR AND WILL THREATEN THE OAKLAND AND MACON AREAS BEFORE 4 PM.
 
DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 72 NEAR GERMANTOWN..AND PARTS OF
THE HIGHWAY ARE BLOCKED BY TREES AND DEBRIS.
 
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM SITUATION. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

This below is **not** the same day...but something from SPC on a different day
Code: [Select]
REF WW NUMBER 0226...VALID TIL 0180Z
REF WW NUMBER 0228...VALID TIL 0210Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TN/AL/MS/ERN AR AND
EXTREME NW GA.  THIS AREA LIES TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E PBF 30 NNE MEM 40 ENE DYR 30 NE BNA 35 NNE CSV 40 N TYS
10 E TYS 25 E CHA 20 WNW RMG 30 SSE HSV CBM 30 SSE GWO 50 E MLU
35 NE MLU 30 E PBF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE PSB 35 W ABE TTN ACY 10 ENE WAL 10 E ORF 20 NNE RWI
25 SE CLT CSG 50 NNE MOB LFT 30 SW POE 25 ESE GGG 20 SSE TXK
20 W JBR PAH 25 NE EVV IND 30 SE SBN 15 SSW GRR 15 N LAN 25 E TOL
20 NW YNG PIT LBE 20 SE PSB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 45 S LFK
20 NW LFK 15 W GGG 25 WNW TXK 55 SE HRO CGI 25 SSW HUF 25 NNW LAF
CGX 20 WNW MKE 25 NNE GRB 25 E PLN ...CONT... 25 NE PBG 15 N BID
...CONT... 25 SSW MYR 25 SW SAV VLD AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 25 E 3HT
55 NNW CPR FCL 45 WSW CAO 25 SE LVS 25 SE GNT 40 SE E03 25 E PRC
25 NE IGM 20 ENE LAS 50 E TPH U31 15 NE WMC 45 E BNO 35 NNW 63S.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH SEASONABLY FAST WSW FLOW CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES.  UPPER TROF OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO SRN ONTARIO...AS ASSOCIATED
BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SWEEPS NE INTO WRN NY/PA.

AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MS VALLEY TROF EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING SRN
PORTION MOVES MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES.  E/W-
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY DRIFT
ONLY SLOWLY ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD...REINFORCED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ALONG IT LATER TODAY.   

...TN VALLEY...
EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS FEATURE REMAINS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FAST WSW JET ALOFT.
SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER E TX AT THE MOMENT.  CONTINUED ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING...SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE UVV AND
SEVERE THREAT ALONG BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.  PRESENCE
OF COMPARATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 12/
RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS WILL BE OFFSET BY INFLUX OF VERY RICH
GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THREAT WILL BE
HIGH FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.     

FARTHER N...WARM ADVECTION ABOVE COOL DOME ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH UPLIFT ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
SUGGESTS CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF ERN IND/OH/LWR MI.  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW
FOR SURFACE HEATING INVOF SURFACE LOW AS NEWD-MOVING COOL POOL
ROTATES NEWD ON N SIDE OF MID MS VALLEY UPPER JET.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THE MOMENT
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ENCOUNTERS REGION OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND FAST FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...CORFIDI...
Code: [Select]
STATUS REPORT ON WW NUMBER 228

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM 10 NW DYR TO 60 WSW MEM.

ONE INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR PARSONS TN AT 1922Z.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...RAPID FORMATION OF SEVERAL STRONG SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS HAS OCCURRED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THE STORMS ARE
CENTERED WITHIN THE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE LATEST SBCAPE IS
2500-3500 J/KG.  KOHX WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH 75 KNOT 500 MB WIND.  USING STORM MOTION
OF 250/40 KNOTS...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS NEAR 400 M2/S2.

SINCE AN EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS INCLUDING
A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES. 

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT 30 MINUTES FROM
CENTRAL TENNESSEE TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PERHAPS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. 
Code: [Select]
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

   TENNESSEE                         
   WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA                     

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES.  ALSO...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE
TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 228...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 230.  WATCH NUMBER 228...230 WILL
NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 400 PM CDT.  CONTINUE...WW 231...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF EXISTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED ROUGHLY E/W ACROSS WATCH REGION....WHERE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL FOCUS BENEATH EXIT REGION OF HIGH
LEVEL JET STREAK NOW ENTERING ERN AR. 

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES.  EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.  A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 480.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
april 25 2011?  Couple days before the big outbreak ?
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2020, 04:49:22 PM
I do remember back in the day- probably 1980s- when weather products would be issued out of either Memphis or Kansas City, even for Middle TN.

This was in the days before the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. I remember listening to NOAA weather radio, and the watch text would be read as something like, "The National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City, Missouri, has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of West and Middle Tennessee." That's a blast from the past.

Severe products would come out of KC, but Winter products would come out of Memphis.

In Nashville, we would hear, "The National Weather Service in Memphis, Tennessee, has issued a Winter Storm Watch for portions of West and Middle Tennessee..."

That was in the days when Memphis was a bigger city than Nashville.

Good times.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 01, 2020, 05:17:12 PM
Quote
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
REST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID SOUTH. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO VIOLENT LARGE TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY OVER THE
ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY THEN RETREAT BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY. WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER THE MID SOUTH AND CAUSE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE THROUGH DAY SEVEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

POTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

Quote
YOU CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE
TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. YOU SHOULD STAY TUNED TO A RELIABLE SOURCE OF WEATHER
INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION
IF SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PROBABLY UNTIL AROUND 900 AM OR SO.

RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE NIGHT FOR SEVERAL
COUNTIES IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH RIVERS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THEIR BANKS. THROUGH TONIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.

Quote
.NOW...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER ALL THE WEST TENNESSEE COUNTIES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AS WELL AS NORTH WEST TENNESSEE. THE STORMS
ARE MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THE STORMS ARE STRONG AND
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 1 AM.

Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN TENNESSEE
  EAST CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE

* UNTIL 400 AM CDT

* AT 324 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  TORNADO OVER FRANKLIN...OR ABOUT 5 MILES EAST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE...
  3 MILES NORTHWEST OF NOLENSVILLE AT 340 AM CDT
  3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA VERGNE AT 355 AM CDT
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF SMYRNA AT 400 AM CDT

&&

LAT...LON 3594 8689 3581 8672 3589 8638 3605 8653

See if you can guess this string of events. 
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
May 2003?
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 01, 2020, 05:40:09 PM
april 25 2011?  Couple days before the big outbreak ?

Nope. Think back farther. A good bit.

I do remember back in the day- probably 1980s- when weather products would be issued out of either Memphis or Kansas City, even for Middle TN.

This was in the days before the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. I remember listening to NOAA weather radio, and the watch text would be read as something like, "The National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City, Missouri, has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of West and Middle Tennessee." That's a blast from the past.

Severe products would come out of KC, but Winter products would come out of Memphis.

In Nashville, we would hear, "The National Weather Service in Memphis, Tennessee, has issued a Winter Storm Watch for portions of West and Middle Tennessee..."

That was in the days when Memphis was a bigger city than Nashville.

Good times.

Yeah, SPC evolved I think around 97 so that's when it wasn't out of Kansas City anymore. The NWS restructure to local WFOs having full product control vs one office per state was gradual through the 90s and went all the way up until about 1999-2000. Again the big warning products (Tornado/Severe T'storm etc) were always issued office to office but things like general forecasts, discussions, and winter storm and non-precipitation events were handled out of Memphis.

In example lol (no guessing game here!)
Code: [Select]
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 364
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
1112 AM CDT THU JUN  9 1994

.A..THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR

     PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
     PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE
     PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON UNTIL 500 PM CDT.

LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JONESBORO
ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES EAST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.
$$

C... A FEW SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL SFC AND ALF TO 3 IN. EXTRM TURBC AND
SFC WND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CBS WITH MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN
WIND VECTOR 28025.

D... STG/SVR TSTMS CURRENTLY BOWING ACR CNTRL AR ARE XPCD TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS WRM MOIST VRY UNSTBL AIR FEEDS STORMS. STLT
IMAGERY AND MRNG MODELS SUG MID LVL CNVTVLY INDUCED VORT MAX AND
ASSOCD PVA WL INSTFY STORMS INTO AFTN.

E...OTR TSTMS... CONT...WW 362..WW 363..

...ANTHONY
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 01, 2020, 05:48:22 PM
Do the one for my Christmas blizzard that did not happen

Too painful  ;D

See if you can guess this string of events. 

My guess is somewhere part of May 2003 but which date (if those are all the same night) I'm not sure
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2020, 05:57:18 PM
im stumped right now...steven may be right event may 2003 or one during that two week period, it was extremely active...  april 98  the one steven posted? my guess
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 01, 2020, 06:00:36 PM
im stumped right now...steven may be right event may 2003 or one during that two week period, it was extremely active...  april 98  the one steven posted? my guess

I don't know if April 98 is a guess for mine or his....but one of them is right  ;) ;) ;D ;D

So one more example...through the 90s this is what it was. There was no AFD. It was the SFD. State Forecast Discussion. Issued by Memphis and covered all of Tennessee...and was not the public-friendly read that the AFD is today....at all...
Quote
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS, TN
246 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 1994

 NUMBER OF SFC BNDRYS AND UPR LVL FEATURES TO KEEP UP WITH IN MAKING
UPCOMING FCST. LATEST ADAP SHOWS AMS CONTS UNSTABLE ACRS TN. UPR/SFC
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS THAT BLASTED THRU WRN TN YESTERDAY IS NOW
APCHG CUMBERLAND PLATEAU CAUSING AREAS OF RAIN. EXPECT THIS FEATURE
TO CONT MOVG EWD TDA INTERACTING WITH MOIST/UNSTBL AMS OVR ERN TO
CAUSE SCT-NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS. MEANWHILE SFC FNT EXTENDS ACRS NRN TN
INTO CNTRL AR. CONVERGENCE BNDRY LIES FM CNTRL AR TO NRN MS AHEAD
OF THE FNT CAUSING SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THIS MRNG. THE FNT WL GRDLY SAG
SEWD TDA THRU WRN/MID TN CAUSING SCT TSTMS. ALSO WL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON TSTM COMPLEX OVR WRN KS. NGM H5 VORTICITY FCST INDICATES
THESE TSTMS COULD AFFECT WRN TN BY LATE IN THE DAY. WL LWR POPS TO
20% WRN/MID ZONES SAT WITH SOME HESITATION. HWVR, NGM DOES SHOW
LESS THAN 50% MEAN RH SPRDG INTO WRN/MID TN SAT BEHIND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER H5 S/WV THAT PASSES MNLY TO N OF TN. NOT MUCH ARGUMENT
WITH NGM MOS TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.

.MEM...NONE
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2020, 06:03:53 PM
Alright, I have one-
 
A watch and a warning from this event...

Quote
BULLETIN
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 103

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR

A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
A LARGE PORTION OF ALABAMA
A PORTION OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA

THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST IN THESE AREAS FROM 545 PM CDT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN AN AREA ALONG AND 70 MILES…60 NAUTICAL…EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM HUNTSVILLE ALABMAA TO 45 MILES…40 NAUTICAL SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE ALABAMA

PERSONS IN OR CLOSE TO THE TORNADO WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO BE ON THE WATCH FOR LOCAL WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS AND FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.


Quote
BULLETIN
TORNADO WARNING
EANS REQUESTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
ISSUED 9 PM CDT

A TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR PERSONS IN THE NORTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES OF LAMAR ÖMARION ÖFRANKLIN Ö LAUDERDALE AND LAWRENCE.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INTENSIFIED AGAIN OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF DAMAGE IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 65 TO 70 MPH.

RADAR AT JACKSON MISSISSIPPI REPORTS LARGE HAIL IS INDICATED IN THE SULLIGENT WINFIELD AREA OF LAMAR AND MARION COUNTIES.

CENTREVILLE RADAR REPORTS A HOOK ECHO INDICATING A POSSIBLE TORNADO IN GUIN IN SOUTHWEST MARION COUNTY.

TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHERÖPLACE AN EMERGENCY COLLECT CALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM ON 870-1811.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2020, 06:05:38 PM
I don't know if April 98 is a guess for mine or his....but one of them is right  ;) ;) ;D ;D

So one more example...through the 90s this is what it was. There was no AFD. It was the SFD. State Forecast Discussion. Issued by Memphis and covered all of Tennessee...and was not the public-friendly read that the AFD is today....at all...
yea   I guessed april 98 for stevens  and may 2003 second week, which was a very buisy two week period around here for one u posted kevin
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2020, 06:12:24 PM
Alright, I have one-
 
A watch and a warning from this event...
april 27 , 2011?
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2020, 06:16:45 PM
april 27 , 2011?

Good guess, but no...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 01, 2020, 06:33:30 PM
yea   I guessed april 98 for stevens  and may 2003 second week, which was a very buisy two week period around here for one u posted kevin
April 16, 1998 is mine  ;) :)
Good guess, but no...
That's 4/3/74

Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 01, 2020, 06:34:54 PM
There are some interesting things to be found within here LOL

Quote
ROUTINE ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE (URGENT NOTIFICATION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS, TN
844 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 1999

TO: ALL

FM: MEM

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT MEMPHIS IS CLOSED
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO A BOMB THREAT. WE WILL REOPEN AFTER
THE BUILDING IS SEARCHED. MEANWHILE..BACKUP OFFICES ARE ASKED TO
ASSUME ALL RESPONSIBILITIES.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JHart on May 01, 2020, 06:48:27 PM
I do remember back in the day- probably 1980s- when weather products would be issued out of either Memphis or Kansas City, even for Middle TN.

[Ö]
Severe products would come out of KC, but Winter products would come out of Memphis.

In Nashville, we would hear, "The National Weather Service in Memphis, Tennessee, has issued a Winter Storm Watch for portions of West and Middle Tennessee..."

That was in the days when Memphis was a bigger city than Nashville.

Good times.

That was in the days when we had winter storms.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2020, 06:57:40 PM
April 16, 1998 is mine  ;) :)That's 4/3/74
wow. Good guess... that event right there got me interested in severe weather right there... though we missed it to the east of us, thanks to a over night mcs coming out arkansas.  I was 11 years old then ... Jesus im getting old lol...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 01, 2020, 07:00:56 PM
LOL I bet if Curt was around he would get this one....

Code: [Select]
TRICKY FORECAST AGAIN. LACK OF GOES-8 DOESNT HELP MATTERS MUCH..HOPE
THEY CAN FIND THE PROBLEM.

SUSPECT ARCTIC FNT JUST NW OF MEM...AS M04(COVINGTON..TIPTON CO) DPT
DOWN TO 20 F...AND UNION CITY..DYR AND PARIS ALL HAVE DPTS IN TEENS.
WILL PRESENT VERIFICATION PROBLEM IN WEST..AS TEMPS WILL START
DROPPING..AND TRYING TO FIGURE 12Z TEMP FOR MAX.

BIGGER PROBLEM IS WITH VORT MAX DRIVING ARCTIC FRONT. EXPECT IT TO
WORK ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS STATE TODAY.
MOISTURE A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS MIDDLE AND EAST..THUS MOST POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATION. QPF FROM ETA/NGM RATHER SIMILAR..BUT WITH COLD
AIR..TUFF TO TELL WHAT FROZEN TO LIQUID RATIO WILL BE. WITH UPPER
LEVELS COOLING..WILL USE 15 TO 1 AS FIRST SHOT. BASICALLY..WILL GO
WITH AN INCH OR SO NW AND MO BOOTHEEL..LESS THAN AN INCH SW TN..1-3
MIDDLE..2-4 PLATEAU AND VALLEY..3-5 MOUNTAINS. MAY DEVELOP NARROW
BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW..BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT..AND CAN BE HANDLED
AS THEY SET UP.

THEREFORE..PLAN ON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLE TODAY AND EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL CALL IT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INSTEAD OF SNOW ADVISORY..BECAUSE I ALSO WANT TO HIT ON WIND CHILL IN
EAST EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA VALUE ON ITS OWN.
ALREADY SEEING ECHOES ACRS NRN AR..SRN MO.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING BEHIND SYSTEM...MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS STATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE COMING AT US FROM WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY..WILL WORRY ABOUT THAT LATER. NEW MRF SHOWS
FREEZER DOOR SHUTS BY SUNDAY..BUT LIKELY TO BE TUE/WED BEFORE AIRMASS
MODIFIES ENOUGH TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPS..FWC VALUES LOOK TOO WARM MOST AREAS..HAVE SHAVED ABOUT A
CATEGORY BOTH DAYS ON HIGHS..LOWS PRETTY CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

COORDINATION..SDF AND JAN. WRKZFP AVAILABLE FOR COMMENTS..WILL RUN
ZONES AT TOP OF HOUR..WSW BETWEEN 1015Z AND 1030Z.  10
Code: [Select]
...WINTRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE MID-SOUTH...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING.
AT 4 AM...THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM UNION CITY TO MEMPHIS TO THE
LITTLE ROCK AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID-SOUTH DURING THE DAY.

ALSO..AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR
LESS ACCUMULATION..BUT THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAKE UNTREATED HIGHWAYS
SLICK...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. DRIVERS WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE EXTRA CAUTION IN SNOWY AREAS.

FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...MOST AREAS SHOULD JUST SEE A DUSTING.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE FREEZING MARK BEFORE
MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS AROUND 10 MILES AN HOUR WILL COMBINE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TONIGHT TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES
AROUND ZERO.
 
IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME...DRESS WITH SEVERAL
LAYERS OF CLOTHING RATHER THAN ONE THICK LAYER.  THE AIR TRAPPED
BETWEEN LAYERS ACTS AS A GOOD INSULATOR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO..TV OR CABLE
TV STATION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
Code: [Select]
...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WEST TENNESSEE AND MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS...JACKSON AND DYERSBURG.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE COLD AIR HAS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH...BUT A
FEW AREAS MAY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES. THE SNOW WILL MAKE DRIVING
HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE SNOW SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNSET.

DUE TO SNOWFALL ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE...ROADS ARE BECOMING VERY
SLICK.  IF YOU ARE DRIVING...REDUCE YOUR SPEED AND USE EXTRA CAUTION
ON SNOW COVERED ROADS.  ALLOW EXTRA DRIVING TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.
Code: [Select]
...MEMPHIS RECORDS FIRST HEAVY SNOW IN XXXX YEARS...

AS OF 2 PM...THE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITE AT THE MEMPHIS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD RECORDED 3.6 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS IS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW RECORDED IN MEMPHIS SINCE JANUARY 6 AND 7, 1988. ON
THOSE DATES...NEARLY EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW PARALYZED THE CITY.

SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE ARE GENERALLY IN THE
THREE TO FOUR INCH RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING NEARLY FIVE INCHES.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 01, 2020, 07:53:29 PM
Mine is May 2003.  The one about the storms all along West TN is 5/4/2003, one of them is 5/5/2003 and the tornado warnings are from 5/11/2003.   
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 01, 2020, 07:58:09 PM
Here is a hazardous weather outlook from that tragic event 10 years ago. 

Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
411 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-022315-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
411 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE MID
SOUTH WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSSIBLE.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH...
OVER AREAS TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TO BATESVILLE...
INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA.   

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
THE MID SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE MID SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY.

WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE TO TEN INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS TO SEVENTEEN INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. EXPECT AN UPSWING IN SEVERE
WEATHER THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY AGAIN DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

OKULSKI
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 02, 2020, 08:58:19 AM
That -NAO, -AO, and +PNA combo that you crave is in action for about the next two weeks. 

That should mean a more favorable wintry (oops its May) which means some cooler weather. 
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Coach B on May 02, 2020, 02:16:51 PM
That -NAO, -AO, and +PNA combo that you crave is in action for about the next two weeks. 

Models showing 30s for lows again next weekend.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Curt on May 02, 2020, 04:24:41 PM
This one is too easy for Memphis
Code: [Select]
TORNADO WARNING UNTIL 400 PM FOR EASTERN SHELBY AND WESTERN FAYETTE
COUNTIES IN WEST TENNESSEE.
 
AT 330 PM..RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO ALONG THE FAYETTE-SHELBY
COUNTY LINE ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN MACON AND CORDOVA..ABOUT 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF EADS. THIS STORM CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50 MILES AN
HOUR AND WILL THREATEN THE OAKLAND AND MACON AREAS BEFORE 4 PM.
 
DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 72 NEAR GERMANTOWN..AND PARTS OF
THE HIGHWAY ARE BLOCKED BY TREES AND DEBRIS.
 
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM SITUATION. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

This below is **not** the same day...but something from SPC on a different day
Code: [Select]
REF WW NUMBER 0226...VALID TIL 0180Z
REF WW NUMBER 0228...VALID TIL 0210Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TN/AL/MS/ERN AR AND
EXTREME NW GA.  THIS AREA LIES TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E PBF 30 NNE MEM 40 ENE DYR 30 NE BNA 35 NNE CSV 40 N TYS
10 E TYS 25 E CHA 20 WNW RMG 30 SSE HSV CBM 30 SSE GWO 50 E MLU
35 NE MLU 30 E PBF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE PSB 35 W ABE TTN ACY 10 ENE WAL 10 E ORF 20 NNE RWI
25 SE CLT CSG 50 NNE MOB LFT 30 SW POE 25 ESE GGG 20 SSE TXK
20 W JBR PAH 25 NE EVV IND 30 SE SBN 15 SSW GRR 15 N LAN 25 E TOL
20 NW YNG PIT LBE 20 SE PSB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 45 S LFK
20 NW LFK 15 W GGG 25 WNW TXK 55 SE HRO CGI 25 SSW HUF 25 NNW LAF
CGX 20 WNW MKE 25 NNE GRB 25 E PLN ...CONT... 25 NE PBG 15 N BID
...CONT... 25 SSW MYR 25 SW SAV VLD AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 25 E 3HT
55 NNW CPR FCL 45 WSW CAO 25 SE LVS 25 SE GNT 40 SE E03 25 E PRC
25 NE IGM 20 ENE LAS 50 E TPH U31 15 NE WMC 45 E BNO 35 NNW 63S.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH SEASONABLY FAST WSW FLOW CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES.  UPPER TROF OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO SRN ONTARIO...AS ASSOCIATED
BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SWEEPS NE INTO WRN NY/PA.

AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MS VALLEY TROF EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING SRN
PORTION MOVES MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES.  E/W-
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY DRIFT
ONLY SLOWLY ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD...REINFORCED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ALONG IT LATER TODAY.   

...TN VALLEY...
EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS FEATURE REMAINS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FAST WSW JET ALOFT.
SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER E TX AT THE MOMENT.  CONTINUED ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING...SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE UVV AND
SEVERE THREAT ALONG BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.  PRESENCE
OF COMPARATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 12/
RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS WILL BE OFFSET BY INFLUX OF VERY RICH
GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THREAT WILL BE
HIGH FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.     

FARTHER N...WARM ADVECTION ABOVE COOL DOME ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH UPLIFT ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
SUGGESTS CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF ERN IND/OH/LWR MI.  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW
FOR SURFACE HEATING INVOF SURFACE LOW AS NEWD-MOVING COOL POOL
ROTATES NEWD ON N SIDE OF MID MS VALLEY UPPER JET.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THE MOMENT
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ENCOUNTERS REGION OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND FAST FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...CORFIDI...
Code: [Select]
STATUS REPORT ON WW NUMBER 228

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM 10 NW DYR TO 60 WSW MEM.

ONE INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR PARSONS TN AT 1922Z.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...RAPID FORMATION OF SEVERAL STRONG SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS HAS OCCURRED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THE STORMS ARE
CENTERED WITHIN THE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE LATEST SBCAPE IS
2500-3500 J/KG.  KOHX WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH 75 KNOT 500 MB WIND.  USING STORM MOTION
OF 250/40 KNOTS...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS NEAR 400 M2/S2.

SINCE AN EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS INCLUDING
A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES. 

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT 30 MINUTES FROM
CENTRAL TENNESSEE TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PERHAPS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. 
Code: [Select]
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

   TENNESSEE                         
   WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA                     

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES.  ALSO...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE
TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 228...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 230.  WATCH NUMBER 228...230 WILL
NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 400 PM CDT.  CONTINUE...WW 231...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF EXISTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED ROUGHLY E/W ACROSS WATCH REGION....WHERE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL FOCUS BENEATH EXIT REGION OF HIGH
LEVEL JET STREAK NOW ENTERING ERN AR. 

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES.  EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.  A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 480.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
November 27, 1994

Didnít see anyone with the answer but didnít look that hard.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Curt on May 02, 2020, 04:26:22 PM
Crockett- mid 80ís statewide. That should make you happy minus the below normal forecast coming up.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 02, 2020, 09:47:17 PM
If these HRRR runs aren't off their rocker an upgrade to Slight is a given for tomorrow.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Coach B on May 03, 2020, 07:07:18 AM
I hope the long range GFS is wrong. Looks like after the next couple of days we are going to have March in May.  ::)
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 03, 2020, 07:36:40 AM
The positive about that is after our summertime like severe threat today and tomorrow this cooldown would push any major severe threats to likely late May.  Often times but not all of the time that is when the severe weather threats especially your major tornado threats are shifted more towards the Plains and the Midwest and away from Dixie Alley.   
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 03, 2020, 09:12:22 AM
November 27, 1994

Didnít see anyone with the answer but didnít look that hard.

Nope you got that one...

Nice little MCS moving into Springfield, MO area. SPC has put up a slight risk across northern sections of state. Still a ways out but could be a threat for NW TN later today if it holds together.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 03, 2020, 10:43:48 AM
I would expect a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for NW TN (maybe as far south as Ripley-Jackson) within the next hour or two. MCS in SW MO is maintaining strength and probably will develop a cold pool which will increase the wind damage threat as it accelerates ESE into the afternoon. There is a bit of capping that might be a limiting factor with time and vertical shear is weaker further east....but cold pool development and increasing destabilization may overcome those.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 03, 2020, 10:44:07 AM
wondering if that might turn into a mini-derecho event...kind of has that look to it
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 03, 2020, 10:45:21 AM
I would expect a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for NW TN (maybe as far south as Ripley-Jackson) within the next hour or two. MCS in SW MO is maintaining strength and probably will develop a cold pool which will increase the wind damage threat as it accelerates ESE into the afternoon. There is a bit of capping that might be a limiting factor with time and vertical shear is weaker further east....but cold pool development and increasing destabilization may overcome those.

I agree given the east southeast movement looks like all of mid tn could get in on this if it holds together
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 03, 2020, 11:06:44 AM
Note that portions of the marginal risk in TN and KY upgraded to slight.

UPDATE: Now a portion that includes the northwest corner of the state has been upgraded to enhanced.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 03, 2020, 12:10:31 PM
Storm on the far SW flank should be monitored for the Memphis metro despite Memphis not officially in the new Severe T'Storm Watch. It is quite intense at the moment and moving in this direction. Again questions with capping with S/SE extent are a question so don't know if it will make it
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 03, 2020, 12:16:29 PM
Storm on the far SW flank should be monitored for the Memphis metro despite Memphis not officially in the new Severe T'Storm Watch. It is quite intense at the moment and moving in this direction. Again questions with capping with S/SE extent are a question so don't know if it will make it

I think the fact that the watch goes all the way to the 65 corridor is interesting...means they think it will.....severe wind probs are labeled as high in the watch, wasn't expecting that
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 03, 2020, 12:25:55 PM
I think the fact that the watch goes all the way to the 65 corridor is interesting...means they think it will.....severe wind probs are labeled as high in the watch, wasn't expecting that

SPC mesoanalysis shows a tongue of warmer 850 mb temperatures jutting into SW and SW Middle TN. That's the main inhibiting factor...in addition to being on the southern belt of stronger winds aloft. Moisture isn't as deep in this region as well
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 03, 2020, 12:30:48 PM
SPC mesoanalysis shows a tongue of warmer 850 mb temperatures jutting into SW and SW Middle TN. That's the main inhibiting factor...in addition to being on the southern belt of stronger winds aloft. Moisture isn't as deep in this region as well
yeah, that will put a pretty good cap on in the sw part of state more likely...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 03, 2020, 12:56:59 PM
Upper level cold pool could held modify and/or sustain the storms farther south, even though the storms may outrun & move south of better upper support. These storms will lay out a boundary that may support more convection later today into tonight when the capping may weaken some and a weak LLJ will develop.

A very summer-like scenario.


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Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 03, 2020, 01:22:08 PM
Upper level cold pool could held modify and/or sustain the storms farther south, even though the storms may outrun & move south of better upper support. These storms will lay out a boundary that may support more convection later today into tonight when the capping may weaken some and a weak LLJ will develop.

A very summer-like scenario.


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spc just put meso over our area for the exact thing ur talking bout rugger... cold pool is strengthen... spc thinks a short lived tornado or two chance is increasing later this afternoon
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 03, 2020, 01:40:49 PM
Looks to be strengthening as it approaches. DP is 70 so there is plenty of fuel.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 03, 2020, 01:43:04 PM
Tornado warning on the northern edge now.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 03, 2020, 01:57:45 PM
The northern half of the line looks like it has quite a bit of hail with it. I can see that still being the case as it enters northern middle TN.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Vols1 on May 03, 2020, 02:28:02 PM
Thatís a mean looking line of storms
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JKT1987 on May 03, 2020, 02:35:23 PM
Velocities and the rear-inflow jet are on a downward trend in the last half hour...so it does appear to be slowly weakening some. The northern apex in SW KY remains most organized...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 03, 2020, 02:45:12 PM
Poked my head into the NWS chat rooms...

PAH receiving multiple reports of trees down, powerlines down, a couple of roofs blown off, and a car overturned by high winds.

MEG seeing trees down in Eastern AR, some roof damage.

OHX concerned about large hail parameters.

That line ain't messing around, yall. Looks awfully derecho-y to me, if it holds together long enough.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 03, 2020, 03:02:49 PM
There is a whole set of power lines down in Dyersburg. No telling how long I will be without power.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 03, 2020, 03:06:38 PM
SPC updated Day 1.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif)
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 03, 2020, 03:51:36 PM
New warning for Clarksville is up to 80mph.

There is nothing really stopping this as itís fully matured.


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Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 03, 2020, 03:55:05 PM
70MPH wind gust reported in Dover.  The whole line from the KY/TN border down to Hardin County is nothing to mess with.  Probably not too dissimilar in impact to the damaging wind events of this past January and of last June. 
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 03, 2020, 03:59:03 PM
70MPH wind gust reported in Dover.  The whole line from the KY/TN border down to Hardin County is nothing to mess with.  Probably not too dissimilar in impact to the damaging wind events of this past January and of last June.

I inherited a trampoline in my tulip poplar from June last year. Neighbor decided to forego replacing it, thankfully.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 03, 2020, 04:11:04 PM
Possible tornadoes east of Charlotte and another east of Dickson.

No TOR warning though.


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Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 03, 2020, 04:14:28 PM
If this continues to hold together, bearing down on the Nashville area.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 03, 2020, 04:23:54 PM
Pretty aggressive wording in the warning that includes Williamson County, which is now in the line for the apex of the complex.


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Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 03, 2020, 04:27:51 PM
Family in separate locations from Pegram back to Burns reported very intense, power outages, and tree damage.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: WXHD on May 03, 2020, 04:29:20 PM
Hitting hard in Bellevue.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: wmp600 on May 03, 2020, 04:37:44 PM
We had a couple of minutes of very intense rain in Ashland City. Power is out at the moment.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 03, 2020, 04:57:20 PM
Max gust at BNA of 62kts, or 71mph.


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Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 03, 2020, 04:57:38 PM
Mom just sent a text saying they are without power in SW of Smyrna.

Smyrna Airport just recorded a 53kt (60mph) gust, which should be at my back door in the next few minutes.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 03, 2020, 04:58:25 PM
Whew! That was intense.

Power fluctuated off and on. It was never out for more than a few seconds at a time at our place in Nolensville.

Pretty sure winds in excess of 50 here.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Clay on May 03, 2020, 05:00:56 PM
Just got a call from Mom in Oak Hill. Several trees down including one that fell on the house. Driveway blocked in as well. Said it looked like a tornado came through. Going to grab a chainsaw once it's safe and head over to help.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 03, 2020, 05:06:40 PM
Iíll be surprised if this doesnít end up qualifying as a derecho.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: WXHD on May 03, 2020, 05:09:38 PM
NES is showing 128K without power. Iíve never seen it that high.

I hope it comes back online for those without. Iím sure there is lots of food in freezers and refrigerators.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: spanarkle08 on May 03, 2020, 05:09:59 PM
Lots of trees and signs,poles down in south Carroll Co and North Henderson Co
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: andyhb on May 03, 2020, 05:12:04 PM
A lot of 70-80 kt outbound bins showing up with that thing now to the east. **** of a year severe weather wise for the Nashville area.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 03, 2020, 05:15:26 PM
Pretty much all power out in Mt Juliet and including here in Lebanon at my place on 109. That was absolutely insane. That is one of the most intense storms I've ever been through. When power comes back on I'll upload some pics and video. Right now headed to Mt Juliet to see what the damage is since I work for Public Works.
Title: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 03, 2020, 05:29:24 PM
Likely confirmed tornado north of Carthage. Thereís probably a TDS but itís a little difficult to discern fully.


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Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 03, 2020, 06:01:38 PM
From Dickson Electric-

ďAs of 5pm, we have almost 20,000 customers in the dark. This is an unprecedented outage situation, and we will be working around the clock over the next several days to get power restored safely and quickly. If you need to report lines down, please call 911. If you need to report your power out, please call 615.446.9051.Ē
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 03, 2020, 07:03:14 PM
Iíll be surprised if this doesnít end up qualifying as a derecho.

Yep I called that this morning, you could see it had derecho potential as early as 1030 this morning
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 03, 2020, 07:32:58 PM
Yep I called that this morning, you could see it had derecho potential as early as 1030 this morning

It originated in Southeastern Kansas so it went the distance. It will depend on any surveys on whether the certain 75MPH/EF-1 tornado+ in a certain timeframe gets met to make it a derecho.

It is interesting how far these things can travel.  The one last June that hit Middle TN and the KY/TN border counties really hard started in Iowa and lasted all the way to the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of South Carolina.   
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on May 03, 2020, 07:38:52 PM
Wow!!

We got blasted here. Strongest winds I have seen in a long time. Knocked over two huge tulip poplars on our property :( Had marble-sized hail as well.

No power here either
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 03, 2020, 07:43:18 PM
It originated in Southeastern Kansas so it went the distance. It will depend on any surveys on whether the certain 75MPH/EF-1 tornado+ in a certain timeframe gets met to make it a derecho.

It is interesting how far these things can travel.  The one last June that hit Middle TN and the KY/TN border counties really hard started in Iowa and lasted all the way to the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of South Carolina.

They are one of the more fascinating events to track...I remember one started in Illinois and ended off the Delmarva region
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on May 03, 2020, 09:56:27 PM
Fortunately we were spared this one. Nothing to it but some gusty winds and light rain. Looked wicked on radar passing I-65 though.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 08:06:16 AM
If you liked yesterdayís severe weather . U like todayís even little better . Round 2 coming later with little better helicity... could be more of a super cellular mode especially just south of the warm front .. latest short range cam models showing pretty stout cells along I 40 corridor later ... look spc to upgrade an area to enhanced later outlooks ...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Greyhound on May 04, 2020, 08:28:57 AM
If you liked yesterdayís severe weather . U like todayís even little better . Round 2 coming later with little better helicity... could be more of a super cellular mode especially just south of the warm front .. latest short range cam models showing pretty stout cells along I 40 corridor later ... look spc to upgrade an area to enhanced later outlooks ...

Not a drop in Knoxville with yesterday's system.  I watched it on radar barreling through Middle TN and across the plateau, only to fall apart once it came into the valley. 
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 04, 2020, 08:44:43 AM
Yesterday was apparently one of the worst power outage events on record for the Nashville area per NES. I already saw an argument on Facebook from someone insisting they had a tornado at their house. Sorry, but the pic of the broken Bradford pear tree does not constitute proof.  ;)

The ferocity and sound of the winds were attention-getting for sure.

Many are still without power this morning. This is affecting not only people's refrigerated food but also capacity to work at home during the ongoing quarantine. Thankfully, ours did not stay out more than a few seconds during the height of the storm.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: snowdog on May 04, 2020, 08:47:57 AM
Yesterday was apparently one of the worst power outage events on record for the Nashville area per NES. I already saw an argument on Facebook from someone insisting they had a tornado at their house. Sorry, but the pic of the broken Bradford pear tree does not constitute proof.  ;)

The ferocity and sound of the winds were attention-getting for sure.

Many are still without power this morning. This is affecting not only people's refrigerated food but also capacity to work at home during the ongoing quarantine. Thankfully, ours did not stay out more than a few seconds during the height of the storm.

I've lived here all my life (42 years) and I've never seen a straight line wind event like that. Quite impressive.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 08:51:47 AM
Convection already firing back in Kansas and ne Oklahoma ... starting to grow
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: snowdog on May 04, 2020, 08:54:05 AM
If you liked yesterdayís severe weather . U like todayís even little better . Round 2 coming later with little better helicity... could be more of a super cellular mode especially just south of the warm front .. latest short range cam models showing pretty stout cells along I 40 corridor later ... look spc to upgrade an area to enhanced later outlooks ...

I don't think folks here in middle TN can take much more. One friend just got their roof replaced a couple weeks ago from the tornado, now they need it again. Another had siding replaced from the tornado recently only to have a tree fall and damage that portion of their house yesterday. The PTSD around this area is real.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 08:57:59 AM
I don't think folks here in middle TN can take much more. One friend just got their roof replaced a couple weeks ago from the tornado, now they need it again. Another had siding replaced from the tornado recently only to have a tree fall and damage that portion of their house yesterday. The PTSD around this area is real.
agree with you... yíall have taken on the chin pretty good this spring ...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: ChrisPC on May 04, 2020, 09:02:50 AM
I grew up on the Gulf Coast and have been through several Cat 1 hurricanes. This was identical. Hermitage and Donelson got hit in a lot of the same places as the tornado...

Trees that didnít fall two months ago did yesterday. This time, they were uprooted or split instead of twisted off. So many hollow oak trees just collapsed. Neighbors on both sides of me lost trees! No major damage, though.

I got off work last night, and had to drive around several downed trees. I even had to drive over power lines once or twice. NES had already disconnected them, though.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JHart on May 04, 2020, 09:03:44 AM
Meanwhile, although less extreme than the 00z run, the 06z run of the GFS continues to insist on an amazingly cold, possibly historic, pattern starting this weekend and lasting at least through the middle of next week with serious freeze threats across the eastern half of the state Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday mornings.  Mother nature's got some serious 'tude this year.   :(
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on May 04, 2020, 09:16:21 AM
Meanwhile, although less extreme than the 00z run, the 06z run of the GFS continues to insist on an amazingly cold, possibly historic, pattern starting this weekend and lasting at least through the middle of next week with serious freeze threats across the eastern half of the state Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday mornings.  Mother nature's got some serious 'tude this year.   :(
Ugh. Of course I finished planting all my flowers last week. Hopefully this cold snap moderates. Like every single cold snap the GFS shows all winter long.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 04, 2020, 09:18:34 AM
Sadly, a historic tree was lost in the storm yesterday at JT Moore school in Green Hills.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 09:19:35 AM
I don't think folks here in middle TN can take much more. One friend just got their roof replaced a couple weeks ago from the tornado, now they need it again. Another had siding replaced from the tornado recently only to have a tree fall and damage that portion of their house yesterday. The PTSD around this area is real.

agreed, I had a relative go through the Lebanon tornado and there is ptsd type feelings there also
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 09:21:22 AM
that's a massive hail core on that one cell in kansas
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 04, 2020, 09:28:22 AM
I'm getting a kick out of folks in Nashville complaining about power not being restored. I'm sorry, but clearly there are a TON of idiots that can grasp the fact NES is having to do a partial rebuild of their grid, particularly replacing and setting new poles. It's one of the largest outages in their history and will take days, and social distancing guidelines only exacerbate the wait. Your food spoiling is peanuts compared to more serious crap happening across the state.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: TNHunter on May 04, 2020, 09:51:08 AM
Meanwhile, although less extreme than the 00z run, the 06z run of the GFS continues to insist on an amazingly cold, possibly historic, pattern starting this weekend and lasting at least through the middle of next week with serious freeze threats across the eastern half of the state Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday mornings.  Mother nature's got some serious 'tude this year.   :(

Right. Makes you just want to shake Mother Nature and ask her what the heck she is thinking. She completely forgets about winter now days and the past two years has given us significant cold shots in May like an idiot.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on May 04, 2020, 10:16:13 AM
Lots of damage on my way to work this morning.

Several large trees downed on county roads, just like the ones on our farm. Big old tulip poplars. Makes me kinda sad, because I love tulip poplars!

Lots of signs were blown over on 840 as I drove toward the 65/840 interchange. However, I didn't see much damage in Cool Springs.

We were out of power for 8 hours yesterday evening. We had no cell service for a while either. Heck of a storm! Those winds got up to 70 mph, O swear!
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: snowdog on May 04, 2020, 10:16:56 AM
I'm getting a kick out of folks in Nashville complaining about power not being restored. I'm sorry, but clearly there are a TON of idiots that can grasp the fact NES is having to do a partial rebuild of their grid, particularly replacing and setting new poles. It's one of the largest outages in their history and will take days, and social distancing guidelines only exacerbate the wait. Your food spoiling is peanuts compared to more serious crap happening across the state.

I was grateful to get mine back so fast, knowing the size of their job. Those guys do a **** good job.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on May 04, 2020, 10:17:07 AM
Had several minutes of marble sized hail too
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on May 04, 2020, 10:17:42 AM
I was grateful to get mine back so fast, knowing the size of their job. Those guys do a **** good job.

They busted their tails over here. Power was out from Fairview to western Franklin. Thank God for those workers!
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 10:36:30 AM
Severe thunderstorm watches are starting to extend  se now into northern Arkansas
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2020, 10:37:48 AM
This is not a "one up" post. Electrical failures suck 100%. Memphis has been dealt so many blows over the years its almost comical.

1. July 2003 Hurricane Elvis- 339,000 customers out; electrical grid had a catastrophic failure and much of the grid had to be rebuilt
2. Ice Storm 1994- 200,000 customers out. so many trees on top of power lines it took weeks to rebuild
3. May 2017- 150,000 customers out
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 04, 2020, 10:40:32 AM
I'm getting a kick out of folks in Nashville complaining about power not being restored. I'm sorry, but clearly there are a TON of idiots that can grasp the fact NES is having to do a partial rebuild of their grid, particularly replacing and setting new poles. It's one of the largest outages in their history and will take days, and social distancing guidelines only exacerbate the wait. Your food spoiling is peanuts compared to more serious crap happening across the state.

I initially thought this too until it hit me that many of these people can't afford to replace the contents of their fridge/freezer, not to mention that it's an added trip out to the store. SIP is also still in place for Davidson for the most part. Would you want to be confined to the house without power on top of all the stress of the last 2 months? I wouldn't. Count me as one of those that already had to replace an entire fridge/freezer 2 months ago. I was getting pretty concerned I was going to have to do it again last night when I reached hour 4 without it.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 04, 2020, 10:44:02 AM
Based on radar trends I don't see how we don't end up getting slammed again later this afternoon.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 10:46:22 AM
Based on radar trends I don't see how we don't end up getting slammed again later this afternoon.
agreed....although I don't see it as being a derecho like yesterday but I could be wrong :)
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 10:51:59 AM
agreed....although I don't see it as being a derecho like yesterday but I could be wrong :)
interesting how itís going look when it gets into se Missouri  and ne Arkansas.   Got a cold pool building there also later
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Crockett on May 04, 2020, 10:58:20 AM
If you liked yesterdayís severe weather . U like todayís even little better . Round 2 coming later with little better helicity... could be more of a super cellular mode especially just south of the warm front .. latest short range cam models showing pretty stout cells along I 40 corridor later ... look spc to upgrade an area to enhanced later outlooks ...

Wait...there were idiots who actually liked yesterday's weather?  :o
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Crockett on May 04, 2020, 10:59:22 AM
Meanwhile, although less extreme than the 00z run, the 06z run of the GFS continues to insist on an amazingly cold, possibly historic, pattern starting this weekend and lasting at least through the middle of next week with serious freeze threats across the eastern half of the state Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday mornings.  Mother nature's got some serious 'tude this year.   :(

This is all Curt's fault! He's been praying for a cool spring and, apparently, he's living righteously.  :P
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 11:04:36 AM
Wait...there were idiots who actually liked yesterday's weather?  :o

C'mon now...you know what he meant......he meant if you found it interesting to track
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 04, 2020, 11:34:33 AM
Talked to my parents this morning. They didn't get power back until around 10pm last night, but fared well, otherwise. They have several dead oaks around their property, and as each storm blows through, they lose one or two.

My tulip poplar is leaning a bit after yesterday. That's the same tree that caught the neighbor's trampoline last summer. I sure hope it can weather the storms, because the way it's leaning now, it'll drop on my privacy fence and the neighbor's shed.


Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: ChrisPC on May 04, 2020, 11:39:10 AM
I initially thought this too until it hit me that many of these people can't afford to replace the contents of their fridge/freezer, not to mention that it's an added trip out to the store. SIP is also still in place for Davidson for the most part. Would you want to be confined to the house without power on top of all the stress of the last 2 months? I wouldn't. Count me as one of those that already had to replace an entire fridge/freezer 2 months ago. I was getting pretty concerned I was going to have to do it again last night when I reached hour 4 without it.

The tornado was only half a mile or so from my house. Our power was out for over two days, and a lot of our food went bad. We just bought groceries, and now itís out again! This time we have a cooler. Itís not a big financial hit for us, but I can just imagine how bad it is for some people.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 04, 2020, 11:41:20 AM
I initially thought this too until it hit me that many of these people can't afford to replace the contents of their fridge/freezer, not to mention that it's an added trip out to the store. SIP is also still in place for Davidson for the most part. Would you want to be confined to the house without power on top of all the stress of the last 2 months? I wouldn't. Count me as one of those that already had to replace an entire fridge/freezer 2 months ago. I was getting pretty concerned I was going to have to do it again last night when I reached hour 4 without it.
Food spoiling does suck, and I get that, but a lot of folks have irrational timeline in their mind of how quick power needs to be turned back on. That's what I was getting at, more directly.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Beth on May 04, 2020, 12:00:00 PM
We got hit hard in Dickson. We just got our power back on. Been out since 3:30 yesterday afternoon. No damage at our house but lots of trees and poles down all other. Dickson Electric said they had not had outages like this since 1994 ice storm.  Saying it could be weeks before some get their power back.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: snowdog on May 04, 2020, 12:10:55 PM
agreed....although I don't see it as being a derecho like yesterday but I could be wrong :)

At this point, I'm expecting it to rain Murder Hornets.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: WXHD on May 04, 2020, 12:29:15 PM
NES is saying some may be without power for 2 weeks.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 04, 2020, 01:04:56 PM
This is not a "one up" post. Electrical failures suck 100%. Memphis has been dealt so many blows over the years its almost comical.

1. July 2003 Hurricane Elvis- 339,000 customers out; electrical grid had a catastrophic failure and much of the grid had to be rebuilt
2. Ice Storm 1994- 200,000 customers out. so many trees on top of power lines it took weeks to rebuild
3. May 2017- 150,000 customers out

Funny you bring up Hurricane Elvis- I was thinking about that earlier... this is sort of looking like Nashville's Hurricane Elvis.

Hurricane Little Jimmy Dickens?
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 01:05:25 PM
Looks like a complex back in western mo. Trying take a derecho shape ... we  see how it plays out
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 04, 2020, 01:17:02 PM
I've spent more time on the BookFace than normal (today is my birthday, notifications aplenty). The general consensus from commenters is, "It came out of nowhere!" "We had no warning!"

BULL$H!+. OHX issued Svr Warnings upwards of an hour ahead of the actual line the minute it crossed over the TN River. Personal responsibility/accountability appears to be a thing of the past. They ignore "severe thunderstorms" because it doesn't say tornado. As we've seen, straight line winds can be catastrophic too, but you'd think this concept was new to the world.  ::bangingheadintowall::

I don't know why I take it personally when people claim to have no warning, but I do. MEG and OHX were very proactive yesterday and did a fine job of giving advanced warnings. 
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: bossfan2000 on May 04, 2020, 01:28:19 PM
I think what people probably mean is that they didn't wake up and hear/see "heads up" type warnings from the media, that things could get bad later in the day. We started the day at a level 1 risk, but 2 updates later were were level 3.

I get what you are saying, but in a sense, this one did escalate quickly (imo).
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: WXHD on May 04, 2020, 01:37:07 PM
I've spent more time on the BookFace than normal (today is my birthday, notifications aplenty). The general consensus from commenters is, "It came out of nowhere!" "We had no warning!"

BULL$H!+. OHX issued Svr Warnings upwards of an hour ahead of the actual line the minute it crossed over the TN River. Personal responsibility/accountability appears to be a thing of the past. They ignore "severe thunderstorms" because it doesn't say tornado. As we've seen, straight line winds can be catastrophic too, but you'd think this concept was new to the world.  ::bangingheadintowall::

I don't know why I take it personally when people claim to have no warning, but I do. MEG and OHX were very proactive yesterday and did a fine job of giving advanced warnings.

Happy Birthday!
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 01:38:26 PM
10 percent tornado hatched now from Springfield mo to ft. Smith Arkansas ...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 04, 2020, 01:45:13 PM
Funny you bring up Hurricane Elvis- I was thinking about that earlier... this is sort of looking like Nashville's Hurricane Elvis.

Hurricane Little Jimmy Dickens?
Hurricane Dolly, and this isn't up for discussion.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: aptrumpet on May 04, 2020, 01:54:15 PM
I think what people probably mean is that they didn't wake up and hear/see "heads up" type warnings from the media, that things could get bad later in the day. We started the day at a level 1 risk, but 2 updates later were were level 3.

I get what you are saying, but in a sense, this one did escalate quickly (imo).

Wilson county was warned it seemed with only 5-8 minutes for Mount Juliet to take cover.  Was watching it go past downtown Nashville wondering why they hadn't issued it yet for Wilson.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 04, 2020, 01:57:04 PM
Hurricane Dolly, and this isn't up for discussion.  ::coffee::

I was reserving Dolly for some mountain wave event in the Smokies, but that works.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 02:04:41 PM
Wide spread extensive damage from that bow coming out of Missouri... west tennessee have watch that one later especially i40 north ... running into a heated environment
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 02:06:41 PM
I've spent more time on the BookFace than normal (today is my birthday, notifications aplenty). The general consensus from commenters is, "It came out of nowhere!" "We had no warning!"

BULL$H!+. OHX issued Svr Warnings upwards of an hour ahead of the actual line the minute it crossed over the TN River.

yesterday they did very well, nws has good days and bad days....yesterday was good Ö.march supercell was very bad, it will happen like that from time to time
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 02:09:05 PM
from spc

Finally, low-level south-southwesterly flow is forecast to slowly
   strengthen through the evening across the Mid-South vicinity. This
   may support an increased threat for a couple tornadoes, mainly
   across parts of western/middle TN along the weak surface boundary
   where low-level flow will be locally backed to east-southeasterly.

Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 02:10:05 PM
from spc

Finally, low-level south-southwesterly flow is forecast to slowly
   strengthen through the evening across the Mid-South vicinity. This
   may support an increased threat for a couple tornadoes, mainly
   across parts of western/middle TN along the weak surface boundary
   where low-level flow will be locally backed to east-southeasterly.
just fixing post that  lol
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 02:33:58 PM
just fixing post that  lol

warm front passing now bruce it just got really juicy here in the 412 corridor didn't it
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 04, 2020, 02:49:09 PM
Keep an eye on initialization further west/southwest of the current activity.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0163_radar.gif)

Quote
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 163
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   235 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of
     Northwest Arkansas
     Southeast Kansas
     Southwest Missouri
     Eastern Oklahoma

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread large hail expected with scattered very large hail
       events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely

     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this
   afternoon along and ahead of a cold front surging southward into the
   watch area.  Supercells capable of very large hail and a few
   tornadoes are possible.  A strong tornado or two is also possible
   through the evening.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of Tulsa OK to 30
   miles north of Harrison AR. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: kristin on May 04, 2020, 02:53:40 PM
I initially thought this too until it hit me that many of these people can't afford to replace the contents of their fridge/freezer, not to mention that it's an added trip out to the store. SIP is also still in place for Davidson for the most part. Would you want to be confined to the house without power on top of all the stress of the last 2 months? I wouldn't. Count me as one of those that already had to replace an entire fridge/freezer 2 months ago. I was getting pretty concerned I was going to have to do it again last night when I reached hour 4 without it.

With the insurance company I work for, you can file a food loss claim and claim up to $500 with no deductible.  You will lose your loss free credit but sometimes it can be worth it.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: wmp600 on May 04, 2020, 03:03:05 PM
Severe TS watch until 10pm for West Tennessee.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 03:11:36 PM
gosh that looks derecho-ish again coming our way.....looks to me like that main line will be 8-9 pm for midstate
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on May 04, 2020, 03:15:49 PM
Has anybody tried turning 2020 off and then turning it back on again?  My gosh, storms, pandemic, murder hornets...

Let's all hope that tonight's storms are not a repeat of yesterday's in terms of their damage and disruption.  Another round of high winds is not going to help Middle TN restore power.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 03:16:51 PM
Nice hail core on the cell alone in ne Arkansas now...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 03:28:36 PM
Nice hail core on the cell alone in ne Arkansas now...

looks like two bow echos could come through this eve
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 03:29:35 PM
looks like two bow echos could come through this eve
yeah meg mentions two waves later
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 04, 2020, 03:33:50 PM
MRX still has up graphics from before the upgrade this afternoon. *Shocker*
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2020, 03:36:53 PM
That ďall alone cellĒ in northeast Arkansas has some staying power. Gonna clip the northern Memphis suburbs in a bit.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 03:39:57 PM
That ďall alone cellĒ in northeast Arkansas has some staying power. Gonna clip the northern Memphis suburbs in a bit.

it keeps pulsing up a hail core too, if I were between Memphis and jasckon I wouldn't play around with that cell
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 04:18:05 PM
interesting, things are sputtering a bit now in our region?
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Volduff64 on May 04, 2020, 05:22:09 PM
I donít see any sputtering but after yesterday and the tornadoes and Coronavirus, I wish it would.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 05:46:14 PM
I donít see any sputtering but after yesterday and the tornadoes and Coronavirus, I wish it would.

well that bow weakened for a minute but looks like it is ramping up now for real
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 04, 2020, 05:56:50 PM
We just had a flood with the first one. The second one is knocking on the door and looks to be packing a punch atm.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 06:00:28 PM
radar looks a lot worse than the one or two severe tstorm warnings that are out west of us....sure looks nasty
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 06:05:53 PM
if that cell near Lexington holds together its headed my way in lewis county, looks nasty
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on May 04, 2020, 06:30:16 PM
Was about to post some damage pics from my area, but I got an error message saying it failed a security check- can an admin check this plz?
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Beth on May 04, 2020, 06:32:22 PM
The Good Lord keeps trying to show us that we need to figure things out.  We have to believe in him and he will lead us in the way he wants us to go.  He is tired of giving us hints. He is for real now days.  Donít mean to upset nonbelievers but we really need to think about what all is going on right now.  Praying for safety for all this evening. 🙏🏻
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 04, 2020, 06:33:53 PM
There is a storm between Milan and Jackson that is generating a 4 inch hail core on radar.  Granted that is probably a bit overdone, but with a storm like that 2+ inch hail is probably a given.   
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: ryandourius on May 04, 2020, 06:42:58 PM
There is a storm between Milan and Jackson that is generating a 4 inch hail core on radar.  Granted that is probably a bit overdone, but with a storm like that 2+ inch hail is probably a given.

Not two inches but definitely a good hail storm. The ground is white.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 06:44:09 PM
they flubbed up the trajectory on the warning for Decatur county storm....it is moving more east than south

and as I typed it the rectified that lol
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 06:45:27 PM
Pitch black here. Like midnite
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: ryandourius on May 04, 2020, 06:50:20 PM
Mixed hail sizes from storm near Milan. Ground is coated and power is out. They said it will be hours before itís back on because of training storms.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 04, 2020, 06:51:54 PM
I would also say with those storms training I would not be surprised to see some flash flooding develop in that part of Tennessee as well.   
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 04, 2020, 06:52:55 PM
I donít know what verifies a flash flood warning but Iím pretty sure this should. Good grief !!!
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 04, 2020, 06:54:22 PM
Warm front is between the Boro & Shelbyville and I don't see any reason for it to make anymore northward progress now that we've been rain-cooled by a thunderstorm. North of that, just some noisy thunderstorms that will unfortunately stop all power restoration efforts.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 04, 2020, 06:59:06 PM
Southern Middle/Southeast TN it's your turn this time. Thankfully Nashville Metro looks like it will be spared.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 04, 2020, 07:01:47 PM
Centerville to Spring Hill to McMinnville is likely the northward extent of severe threat this evening.   
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 04, 2020, 07:03:30 PM
One saving grace even for them is that it looks more like a hail event that may transition to a flash flooding event as opposed to a widespread wind event.

Potentially still some rough storms and some hit or miss power issues but nothing that will cause power outages on a widespread note like yesterday. 
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 07:04:16 PM
Southern Middle/Southeast TN it's your turn this time. Thankfully Nashville Metro looks like it will be spared.

we got it yesterday also here in southern middle roofs blown off in hohenwald
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: WXHD on May 04, 2020, 07:06:06 PM
Nashville hasnít seen wind like last night since 2004. https://www.newschannel5.com/news/nws-sundays-damaging-derecho-was-the-worst-wind-event-since-2004
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: WXHD on May 04, 2020, 07:06:58 PM
An amazing rescue.

 https://www.wkrn.com/weather/weather-stories/hikers-severely-injured-when-storm-topples-large-tree/
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Sbeagles on May 04, 2020, 07:07:36 PM
we got it yesterday also here in southern middle roofs blown off in hohenwald
Blew underpinning off one side of my house and blew fence down. Got electricity back on today about 1.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 04, 2020, 07:17:52 PM
We finally got our flash flood warning.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 07:23:44 PM
could swear I thought I saw rotation on radar in perry co
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 04, 2020, 07:49:41 PM
well I must say this line is not what I expected....nothing like yesterday at all...that's a good thing for my area...heavy rain and lightning for sure but that's it, it did not hold together the intensity like yesterday :)
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on May 04, 2020, 08:09:19 PM
One saving grace even for them is that it looks more like a hail event that may transition to a flash flooding event as opposed to a widespread wind event.

Potentially still some rough storms and some hit or miss power issues but nothing that will cause power outages on a widespread note like yesterday.
If I lose power again tonight Iím moving to Phoenix.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: TNHunter on May 04, 2020, 08:32:31 PM
well I must say this line is not what I expected....nothing like yesterday at all...that's a good thing for my area...heavy rain and lightning for sure but that's it, it did not hold together the intensity like yesterday :)

Todays line was way worse for us here in my area of Dyer county.  Crazy winds, hail, and torrential rain. Havenít seen a storm like that in awhile.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 04, 2020, 08:39:18 PM
The C to G lightning is incredible, even in the non-severe part of the line. I've been watching it out the back door for over an hour now.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 09:00:06 PM
Lexington area just east me got 8 inches hail in spots
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on May 04, 2020, 09:23:09 PM
Lexington area just east me got 8 inches hail in spots

In depth????
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 04, 2020, 09:34:33 PM
KHTX should be going offline any minute now lol

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on May 04, 2020, 09:35:11 PM
My god, more trees got knocked down here. What the heck is going on?? Some of the trees we planted back in December have now been felled by another night of strong winds.

This time, the winds are coming from the EAST... it's so bizarre.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2020, 09:41:05 PM
In depth????
yep. Wild
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on May 04, 2020, 09:45:09 PM
yep. Wild

That is INSANE

We haven't had unstable conditions like this in how long???
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 04, 2020, 09:47:48 PM
What the **** is going on right now??? We are getting hit extremely hard in Lebanon right now and there is really nothing to indicate this on radar. I can only assume this is some type of microburst.  50-60mph gusts from east to west.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 04, 2020, 09:53:12 PM
Classic wake low event. And folks thought we would escape, Mother Nature said, **** NO!
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on May 04, 2020, 09:56:33 PM
What the **** is going on right now??? We are getting hit extremely hard in Lebanon right now and there is really nothing to indicate this on radar. I can only assume this is some type of microburst.  50-60mph gusts from east to west.

We just had that too in Fairview about 15-20 minutes ago. It's finally calmed down. I posted about it possibly being a microburst in a separate thread
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 04, 2020, 10:03:38 PM
I canít believe this wind behind the storms!
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 04, 2020, 10:12:19 PM
OHX-
Quote
High Wind Warning is in effect until midnight. Wind gusts up to 60 mph can be expected. Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Matthew on May 04, 2020, 10:18:41 PM
This is crazy.  I donít even want to know what is next🤦🏻‍♂️
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Scot on May 04, 2020, 10:29:27 PM
Please tell me weíre going to have a break from this crazy weather for awhile!  My word!  Somebodyís trying to tell us something it seems. YIKES!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 04, 2020, 10:32:21 PM
NES outage map has increased by almost 30K because of the Wake Low. Absolutely can't catch a break.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on May 05, 2020, 08:08:06 AM
I'm still without power from Sunday. After last night's wake low, I'm not sure I'll have it back anytime soon. Just made a grocery run on Sunday afternoon, too  ::doh:: So much for all of that food.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Clay on May 05, 2020, 08:54:29 AM
Just to add to the craziness.. GFS has freezing temps east of I-65 Friday night. Second week of May. Absolutely bonkers.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 05, 2020, 09:18:56 AM
wow...the storm line itself was not overly intense but it was strong here in lewis county, but after most of the heavy rain and intense lighting was gone  the wind got CRAZY intense knocking down trees/powerlines...got a pic of my street but idk how to post things lol.....but is that the "wake low" y'all are mentioning?
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 05, 2020, 12:54:51 PM
Some of the colder model runs are quite scary for many people in KY and Middle and East TN outside of urban heat islands. 

Not only could we shatter our latest freeze on record in places the length of the frost conditions could be another crushing blow to the area from Mother Nature. With some models suggesting temperatures dropping into the 20s with several consecutive hours of freeze/frost potential.  If the models continue it may even be worthy of a thread by itself. 
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 05, 2020, 01:10:19 PM
And then longer range ensembles are showing a good ole torch for late May, with the CFS showing a potentially very active phase then as well, particularly for the Plains.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JHart on May 05, 2020, 03:04:58 PM
Some of the colder model runs are quite scary for many people in KY and Middle and East TN outside of urban heat islands. 

There are trees in our area that have not recovered their vegetation from the last event about two weeks ago, when we were below freezing for nearly eight hours.  M'boro currently has a forecast low of 36 Friday and Saturday morning.  With calm winds Saturday night, we can easily take five-seven degrees off that temperature where I live.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 05, 2020, 05:14:36 PM
And then longer range ensembles are showing a good ole torch for late May, with the CFS showing a potentially very active phase then as well, particularly for the Plains.

The trend in previous years after having a really colder than normal period is to immediately flip-flop to the other extreme.  That doesn't surprise me and a building La-Nina probably means torchy times this summer and early Fall.   
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JHart on May 07, 2020, 06:41:32 AM
 My remote thermometer in the creek bottom measured a low of 33F this morning, while the thermometer at the house measured a low of 36F.  There was some slushy frost out in the yard Ö just a grim prelude to this weekend out here I'm afraid.

Observation:  I have seen no hummingbirds around this year; I usually see them by the first week of May.  Hopefully the frequent cold snaps have kept them further south this season since lows in the 20's would likely kill them.   :(
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: TNHunter on May 07, 2020, 07:12:32 AM
My remote thermometer in the creek bottom measured a low of 33F this morning, while the thermometer at the house measured a low of 36F.  There was some slushy frost out in the yard Ö just a grim prelude to this weekend out here I'm afraid.

Observation:  I have seen no hummingbirds around this year; I usually see them by the first week of May.  Hopefully the frequent cold snaps have kept them further south this season since lows in the 20's would likely kill them.   :(

You must not be on the west side of the state.  We have lots of hummingbirds now, started showing up last few days of March over here.  Have a friend around Nashville that doesnít seem them until late summer in his area.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 07, 2020, 07:16:11 AM
My wife saw one in our yard this week, so I actually just put out the feeder.

The last couple of years, I hadnít personally seen them until July. They certainly get active after that.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JHart on May 07, 2020, 08:13:26 AM
For the past couple of years, one hummingbird shows up in my yard in the first or second week of May.  It flits around where I always put the feeder and fusses at me until I set it up.  I don't know how long  hummingbirds live or if they are territorial, but I swear it is the same bird each year.  Others show up later in the summer.

So far, it hasn't showed up this year.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 07, 2020, 08:25:35 AM
The trend in previous years after having a really colder than normal period is to immediately flip-flop to the other extreme.  That doesn't surprise me and a building La-Nina probably means torchy times this summer and early Fall.

I hope not....the past two Septembers and early Octobers have been horrible with upper 80's and Low to mid 90's :(. I would like a few weeks in a row of 60's and 70's this fall :)
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 07, 2020, 08:42:48 AM
For the past couple of years, one hummingbird shows up in my yard in the first or second week of May.  It flits around where I always put the feeder and fusses at me until I set it up.  I don't know how long  hummingbirds live or if they are territorial, but I swear it is the same bird each year.  Others show up later in the summer.

So far, it hasn't showed up this year.

They (at least what I have observed) are FIERCELY territorial. They can be downright jerks to each other. I've seen one stake claim over the feeder before and basically stand watch over it, and if another one approaches, it dive bombs the other one. I've seen feeders where the birds tolerate each other feeding... maybe those are part of flock, but my experience with the ones we get are solitary and territorial.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Coach B on May 07, 2020, 09:00:01 AM
My remote thermometer in the creek bottom measured a low of 33F this morning, while the thermometer at the house measured a low of 36F. 

I've been wanting to do this for years. I've got a bottom field just down the hill from the house that is routinely much colder than up on the hill. Would also love to have one a couple hundred feet higher up on the ridge top. What is your setup for the remote temp?
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 07, 2020, 09:17:13 AM
Seen my first hummingbird last week pecking at my bay window ... I havenít put out any nectar yet ... planning on i this weekend...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 07, 2020, 09:33:53 AM
I've noticed a dramatic lack of bees in the area around my parents in north Murfreesboro. I have seen 1 in the 3 weeks I've been back here, and usually it's insane activity right now.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 07, 2020, 09:41:06 AM
I've noticed a dramatic lack of bees in the area around my parents in north Murfreesboro. I have seen 1 in the 3 weeks I've been back here, and usually it's insane activity right now.
That's because they're all at my house. Walter Hill has no bee shortage.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JHart on May 07, 2020, 10:31:46 AM
I've been wanting to do this for years. I've got a bottom field just down the hill from the house that is routinely much colder than up on the hill. Would also love to have one a couple hundred feet higher up on the ridge top. What is your setup for the remote temp?

My better half bought me an Acu-Rite remote station a couple of years ago that I have mounted on a treated timber about 300 feet from the house.  I believe it came from Costco.  It was about $100 and does a good job measuring rainfall, nighttime temperature, dew point, wind direction, and windchill.  The anemometer looks impressive but never measures speeds greater than 25 mph.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JHart on May 07, 2020, 10:34:20 AM
That's because they're all at my house. Walter Hill has no bee shortage.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
Send some this way Ö so far not a honeybee to be found in Lascassas.  We have clouds of carpenter bees, however.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 07, 2020, 11:01:11 AM
I've noticed a dramatic lack of bees in the area around my parents in north Murfreesboro. I have seen 1 in the 3 weeks I've been back here, and usually it's insane activity right now.

They emerged early in my immediate area around Nolensville. About a month ago, there were all kinds of honey bees, carpenter bees, and wasps swarming around... so much so it was risky to mow around the holly tree that was blooming out front, since bees had taken it over. People in our neighborhood were complaining. That was before some of the freezes we had a couple of weeks ago. They've largely disappeared since early on.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 07, 2020, 11:10:14 AM
Send some this way Ö so far not a honeybee to be found in Lascassas.  We have clouds of carpenter bees, however.
Neighbor, I've had honey bees in the flower bed and carpenter bees on the deck. I didn't have honeybees last spring.

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Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Coach B on May 07, 2020, 01:00:33 PM
I have been keeping bees for well over 10 years. They'll generally start flying on any sunny day in the 50s from mid February on. They are mostly working in the trees right now, especially Locust and Tulip Poplar. Some are on the privet as well. Currently have 9 hives in the yard and I don't think any of my very active kids have been stung. They usually won't bother you at all unless you tick them off while inspecting down in the hive.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Crockett on May 07, 2020, 01:35:43 PM
I have been keeping bees for well over 10 years. They'll generally start flying on any sunny day in the 50s from mid February on. They are mostly working in the trees right now, especially Locust and Tulip Poplar. Some are on the privet as well. Currently have 9 hives in the yard and I don't think any of my very active kids have been stung. They usually won't bother you at all unless you tick them off while inspecting down in the hive.

Honeybees have to be some of the most docile bees in nature. I have wanted to get into bee-keeping for a while; just can't seem to find the time to learn everything I need to know. (Same with raising chickens!)
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 07, 2020, 02:31:16 PM
Honeybees have to be some of the most docile bees in nature. I have wanted to get into bee-keeping for a while; just can't seem to find the time to learn everything I need to know. (Same with raising chickens!)
raising chickens is pretty good job... Iíve got into that., this is my fourth year raising chickens  ... got plenty eggs lol
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 07, 2020, 04:05:26 PM
I have been keeping bees for well over 10 years. They'll generally start flying on any sunny day in the 50s from mid February on. They are mostly working in the trees right now, especially Locust and Tulip Poplar. Some are on the privet as well. Currently have 9 hives in the yard and I don't think any of my very active kids have been stung. They usually won't bother you at all unless you tick them off while inspecting down in the hive.

They are all OVER my tulip poplar!! That explains so much. Thanks, Coach!!!
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on May 07, 2020, 08:54:27 PM
Anyone expecting to see snow flurries?

 ::snowman::
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 08, 2020, 06:17:33 AM
Ugh- have to take in those blame plants yet again...

Quote
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Nashville TN
306 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020

TNZ006-025>027-057>060-082100-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FZ.W.0004.200509T0600Z-200509T1400Z/
Montgomery-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-
Including the cities of Clarksville, Dickson, Ashland City,
Kingston Springs, Nashville, Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin,
Brentwood, and Columbia
306 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Areas of frost with lows in the lower 30s. Upper 20s in
  some spots.

* WHERE...Most of Middle Tennessee.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Frost and some freezing temperatures will
  occur again Saturday night into Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on May 08, 2020, 06:54:11 AM
Ugh. Just can't win. Finally got power back yesterday from Sunday's storm and now I have to worry about everything in the yard getting zapped back by the freeze.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: TNHunter on May 08, 2020, 08:10:57 AM
Yea this is just plain stupid
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 08, 2020, 10:09:47 AM
some big wind just came through lewis county...I would say gusts up to 35 for a few minutes there
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Mister2011 on May 08, 2020, 11:20:56 AM
Did the Covid discussion get locked?

I can see the discussion but no longer get an option to reply though I have that option in other posts

Tin foil hat time, but if I've gotten kicked off or had the ability to reply rescinded I'd appreciate knowing!
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 08, 2020, 11:36:29 AM
Did the Covid discussion get locked?

I can see the discussion but no longer get an option to reply though I have that option in other posts

Tin foil hat time, but if I've gotten kicked off or had the ability to reply rescinded I'd appreciate knowing!

It is locked. You're fine. I'm verifying as this was a moderator lock. Perhaps, a break is best in that thread anyway, but I'm confirming if that was intentional.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Mister2011 on May 08, 2020, 12:18:24 PM
It is locked. You're fine. I'm verifying as this was a moderator lock. Perhaps, a break is best in that thread anyway, but I'm confirming if that was intentional.

Thanks for the quick reply and check. My 3D ERI model of a cave-sinkhole-karst system decided to  ::cliff::  last night and now I have the re-run for the next few hours, giving me free time to post lol

Perhaps a break is a good idea  ::shrug::

Completely random but if anyone is ever interested in geology in our area, I get involved in some pretty cool projects that I would love to share with the intelligent people that frequent this forum. If you've ever seen a giant sinkhole, landslide, slope failure, random geological or geotechnical issues being fixed, you probably saw me standing near it (douchey humble brag  ::whistling::). If it failed again after repairs, that wasn't me   ::rofl::
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 08, 2020, 04:50:39 PM
The thread lock was actually unintentional, so it has been unlocked.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Eric on May 08, 2020, 11:10:08 PM
Thanks for the quick reply and check. My 3D ERI model of a cave-sinkhole-karst system decided to  ::cliff::  last night and now I have the re-run for the next few hours, giving me free time to post lol

Perhaps a break is a good idea  ::shrug::

Completely random but if anyone is ever interested in geology in our area, I get involved in some pretty cool projects that I would love to share with the intelligent people that frequent this forum. If you've ever seen a giant sinkhole, landslide, slope failure, random geological or geotechnical issues being fixed, you probably saw me standing near it (douchey humble brag  ::whistling::). If it failed again after repairs, that wasn't me   ::rofl::

I think StormNine is a geology nut, if memory serves.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JHart on May 09, 2020, 06:35:18 AM
It dropped to 30F out here (33F at the house).  That is not as cold as I feared, but still amazing for mid May.  There is heavy frost right up to the house. 

I expect at least two more frosty nights out here before sunrise Wednesday when hopefully this awful pattern finally ends.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 09, 2020, 07:55:38 AM
Mt Leconte picked up 2Ē of snow according to their FB page.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 09, 2020, 09:49:57 AM
My electric bill was $76 last month. Bet its cheaper than that for May. Blessing in disguise, if you ask me!


It was 60į in the house this morning because I didn't turn the heat on last night. That's what quilts are for!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Curt on May 09, 2020, 10:49:35 AM
Iíve been reading some old AFDís on the Iowa website. MEG had a winter weather advisory the night of the major ice storm in 1994. They finally upgraded hours into the event which makes sense with why so many people were caught off guard. Modeling- while not perfect- would not have missed that today 100%.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on May 09, 2020, 12:01:30 PM
My windshield was frozen over this morning.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 09, 2020, 04:05:33 PM
Iíve been reading some old AFDís on the Iowa website. MEG had a winter weather advisory the night of the major ice storm in 1994. They finally upgraded hours into the event which makes sense with why so many people were caught off guard. Modeling- while not perfect- would not have missed that today 100%.

I was looking at that as well.  A treasure-cove of information but it shows that we have learned a lot since the 90s even though it doesn't feel like we have sometimes.   

Quote
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FIRE UP WEST WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING VIA SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE BAND OF
RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD ITSELF SLIDE A BIT SLOWER EASTWARD THAN THE
STORMS THEMSELVES AMD WITH THE MORNING RAINFALL...OF AROUND AN INCH
OR MORE IN MANY PLACES ACROSS CWA...WOULD BE GOOD IDEA TO CONTINUE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. MAY WANT TO THINK ABOUT EXTENDING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO AT LEAST NRN PLATEAU WHERE STP FROM 88-D SHOWING VARIOUS
SPOTS OF INCH RAINFALL. WILL MAKE DECISION ON THIS WITH XMITTAL OF
BNAZFP. NOW FOR SEVERITY...I THINK THAT WITH ALL OF THE JETS LINING
UP OUT TO THE WEST...THEN ROUNDING THE UPPER TROF AND HEADING DUE
NORTH. THIS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE JET FEATURES ALSO DRAG WITH IT
THE BEST UVV WITH THE SYSTEM. MID TN WILL NOT ENTER A FAVORABLE JET
REGIME THAT WOULD LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERITY SO AT THIS POINT
LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FLOOD THREAT FOR THE CWA WITH THE LEAST THREAT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

The AFD above was from the NWS of Nashville on 5/5/1999 the day of the Linden, TN F/EF-4 tornado. 
 
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: TNHunter on May 09, 2020, 06:40:12 PM
I was looking at that as well.  A treasure-cove of information but it shows that we have learned a lot since the 90s even though it doesn't feel like we have sometimes.   

The AFD above was from the NWS of Nashville on 5/5/1999 the day of the Linden, TN F/EF-4 tornado. 
 

Not gonna lie, I could not imagine being bored enough to go back and read any of those lol!
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 09, 2020, 07:47:40 PM
I remember that 5/5/99 event. Seems like there were lots of lower end tornadoes with short damage paths. Seems like there were some touchdowns around Middle TN, but I recall being in Natchez Trace State Park shortly after that and seeing a lot of trees down... maybe a combo of tornadoes and a lot of straight line wind damage.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 09, 2020, 08:37:05 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/sp3/plot-to-be-fixed.php?lat=35.570&lon=88.309&zoom=280&mode=1&bdate=19990505/1200&edate=19990506/1200&torflag=1&windflag=1&hailflag=1&t01=0&t02=5&t03=0&t04=9999&t05=0&t06=9999&t07=0&t08=9999&t09=0&t10=9999&h01=0&h02=9999&w01=0&w02=9999&showt=0&legend=1&showh=0&showw=0&cntys=1

Outside of the Linden, TN tornado, most everything was widespread damaging winds and lower-end tornadoes.   
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: WXHD on May 10, 2020, 07:00:40 AM
3.3 magnitude earthquake went off at 3:33am this morning!

https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/3-3-magnitude-earthquake-recorded-at-333am-in-tennessee/
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Curt on May 10, 2020, 07:32:14 AM
Starting to see upper 80ís to 90 on the extended. Carbon copy that for the next 120 days.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: TNHunter on May 10, 2020, 09:08:16 AM
Starting to see upper 80ís to 90 on the extended. Carbon copy that for the next 120 days.

Man bring it on!  Ready for some heat and humidity.  Nothing like those early afternoon runs in the heat. Never have been able to get fired up about running in cool weather for some reason.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 10, 2020, 09:16:35 AM
Man bring it on!  Ready for some heat and humidity.  Nothing like those early afternoon runs in the heat. Never have been able to get fired up about running in cool weather for some reason.
100 percent agree with u, I always made my best times when I did my pt test in the marines hot humid weather... just always seem to help my endurance and stamina also
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: WXHD on May 10, 2020, 09:50:21 AM
My plants are desperate for some warmer lows. Iím looking forward to some 80ís as well.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Crockett on May 10, 2020, 10:11:53 AM
Starting to see upper 80ís to 90 on the extended. Carbon copy that for the next 120 days.

It's about time you started posting good news.  ;)
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Matthew on May 10, 2020, 09:09:34 PM
Where the heck did this wind come from?  Good grief.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on May 10, 2020, 09:14:49 PM
Man bring it on!  Ready for some heat and humidity.  Nothing like those early afternoon runs in the heat. Never have been able to get fired up about running in cool weather for some reason.

100 percent agree with u, I always made my best times when I did my pt test in the marines hot humid weather... just always seem to help my endurance and stamina also
There is something clinically wrong with both of you. I have to get up at 5 AM to run from June to September to avoid heat stroke. I did a 12 miler today on the TN RiverPark. It was glorious with low humidity and a nice breeze.

Got down to 35 here this morning. I didnít get up early enough to determine if there had been frost. I covered my planting beds with sheets just in case.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: JHart on May 11, 2020, 08:05:15 AM
The temperature out here bottomed out at 32F (36F at the house) yesterday morning and 34F (37F at the house) this morning with a bit of slushy frost on the rooftops each time.  I have lost count of the number of frosty nights we have had since April 15.  It has been at least a dozen.

I am sure similar things have happened in the past, but I don't recall ever experiencing so many spring cold outbreaks.  We've had "redbud winter", "dogwood winter", "locust winter", and today Ö "enough already" winter.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 11, 2020, 08:13:39 AM
Yeah- this may be either blackberry or cotton britches winter.

I feel like a broken record, but I really do think after the next couple of cool days, this is the last of it. Even OHX said this morning that the longest stretch of 80s since October will be kicking off on Thursday.

We'll be passing mid-May and approaching Memorial Day. It will be time to warm up for sure at this point.

With that said, I won't be surprised if we still flirt with upper 40s on a couple of nights in early June.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Curt on May 11, 2020, 08:36:27 AM
A developing La NiŮa is on the way this summer. This one looks to bottom out around -1.0 this fall and winter meaning itís weak to moderate. Water is finally cooling in the mid Atlantic but itís still warm for now. Hurricane season kicks off in 3 weeks and wouldnít be surprised to see lots of activity this summer. So far most longer range forecasts are normal temps for most of us with above normal rain west and dry conditions east. Would also not be surprised to see at least a week or 2 above normal conditions in July and August. Hopefully with a negative QBO plus La NiŮa- thereís a quick end to summer this year vs the endless one we had the last two. La NiŮa usually cools into fall at a decent rate.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 11, 2020, 08:38:59 AM
A developing La NiŮa is on the way this summer. This one looks to bottom out around -1.0 this fall and winter meaning itís weak to moderate. Water is finally cooling in the mid Atlantic but itís still warm for now. Hurricane season kicks off in 3 weeks and wouldnít be surprised to see lots of activity this summer. So far most longer range forecasts are normal temps for most of us with above normal rain west and dry conditions east. Would also not be surprised to see at least a week or 2 above normal conditions in July and August. Hopefully with a negative QBO plus La NiŮa- thereís a quick end to summer this year vs the endless one we had the last two. La NiŮa usually cools into fall at a decent rate.
think we see increase severe wx as fall moves in andnpossible a winter severe threat also... as se ridge usually accompany La NiŮa s . To go along with a pacific firehose  usually 🔥
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 12, 2020, 06:48:13 AM
If you think about it, every fall, thereís that one cold front that comes through- usually some time in October that really changes the seasons. After that, it never gets as warm again. Itís sort of a step down to winter after that. Then, perhaps, thereís a substantial front in late November or early December that puts us in the winter status quo.

We have a warm front coming up tomorrow that may be the spring counterpart that ushers us into our summertime pattern. Sure, weíll have a few more fronts with some changes of air mass with comparatively minor temperature fluctuations. It will probably be just a few more weeks before we completely settle into our status quo summertime pattern. But, weíll be largely there after tomorrow.

Today is still somewhat cool in the low 60s. Tomorrow is slightly milder in the low 70s... but look for some showers and possible thunderstorms ahead of a warm front when winds shift around to the south. Behind the front, a ridge builds in, and then get ready to be used to the 80s starting Thursday coming in on breezy south winds.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Beth on May 12, 2020, 07:53:38 AM
If you think about it, every fall, thereís that one cold front that comes through- usually some time in October that really changes the seasons. After that, it never gets as warm again. Itís sort of a step down to winter after that. Then, perhaps, thereís a substantial front in late November or early December that puts us in the winter status quo.

We have a warm front coming up tomorrow that may be the spring counterpart that ushers us into our summertime pattern. Sure, weíll have a few more fronts with some changes of air mass with comparatively minor temperature fluctuations. It will probably be just a few more weeks before we completely settle into our status quo summertime pattern. But, weíll be largely there after tomorrow.

Today is still somewhat cool in the low 60s. Tomorrow is slightly milder in the low 70s... but look for some showers and possible thunderstorms ahead of a warm front when winds shift around to the south. Behind the front, a ridge builds in, and then get ready to be used to the 80s starting Thursday coming in on breezy south winds.
I am so ready for warmer weather. My pool is open and beautiful but icy cold.  My granddaughter and I are still staying home as she has asthma and my immunities are not so great. So playing in a warmer pool would be great!  Have a great day TS!  :)
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: TNHunter on May 12, 2020, 08:15:52 AM
If you think about it, every fall, thereís that one cold front that comes through- usually some time in October that really changes the seasons. After that, it never gets as warm again. Itís sort of a step down to winter after that. Then, perhaps, thereís a substantial front in late November or early December that puts us in the winter status quo.

We have a warm front coming up tomorrow that may be the spring counterpart that ushers us into our summertime pattern. Sure, weíll have a few more fronts with some changes of air mass with comparatively minor temperature fluctuations. It will probably be just a few more weeks before we completely settle into our status quo summertime pattern. But, weíll be largely there after tomorrow.

Today is still somewhat cool in the low 60s. Tomorrow is slightly milder in the low 70s... but look for some showers and possible thunderstorms ahead of a warm front when winds shift around to the south. Behind the front, a ridge builds in, and then get ready to be used to the 80s starting Thursday coming in on breezy south winds.

Yep youíre right.  I know I am ready for warm weather but at the same time I know come September and dove and woodduck/teal  season  Iíll be begging for weather like the last week.  Itís funny how the body gets acclimated to weather.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on May 12, 2020, 08:40:29 AM
If you think about it, every fall, thereís that one cold front that comes through- usually some time in October that really changes the seasons. After that, it never gets as warm again. Itís sort of a step down to winter after that. Then, perhaps, thereís a substantial front in late November or early December that puts us in the winter status quo.

We have a warm front coming up tomorrow that may be the spring counterpart that ushers us into our summertime pattern. Sure, weíll have a few more fronts with some changes of air mass with comparatively minor temperature fluctuations. It will probably be just a few more weeks before we completely settle into our status quo summertime pattern. But, weíll be largely there after tomorrow.

Today is still somewhat cool in the low 60s. Tomorrow is slightly milder in the low 70s... but look for some showers and possible thunderstorms ahead of a warm front when winds shift around to the south. Behind the front, a ridge builds in, and then get ready to be used to the 80s starting Thursday coming in on breezy south winds.
Definitely looks like a summertime pattern for the next 2 weeks with almost daily chances of afternoon thundershowers. End of the month looks to be BN again on the GFS. Time will tell if it is on to something.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 12, 2020, 10:00:24 AM
We might still have a moderate cool snap, but mark it down... I think today will be the last day with daytime temps this cool until some time in the fall.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 12, 2020, 11:54:09 AM
Definitely looks like a summertime pattern for the next 2 weeks with almost daily chances of afternoon thundershowers. End of the month looks to be BN again on the GFS. Time will tell if it is on to something.
gfs on to something long range ... never   It may be on something . Worthless model
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 12, 2020, 08:15:49 PM
We might still have a moderate cool snap, but mark it down... I think today will be the last day with daytime temps this cool until some time in the fall.

We will be this cool again in October.  A few days after a string of Fall time 90s of course so that we skip the 60s/70s and go straight for the 50s.   
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: TNHunter on May 13, 2020, 07:41:51 AM
Supposed to be camping at Reelfoot Lake this Friday, Saturday, and Sunday night.  I canít decide whether to cancel or not.  Seems the rain will be scattered and not calling for high precip totals???
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 13, 2020, 08:07:27 AM
Supposed to be camping at Reelfoot Lake this Friday, Saturday, and Sunday night.  I canít decide whether to cancel or not.  Seems the rain will be scattered and not calling for high precip totals???
bluegill should be going on the bed too...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: TNHunter on May 13, 2020, 08:28:10 AM
bluegill should be going on the bed too...

Right...what are models looking like to you as far as rain? Iím not seeing much chance of severe storms
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 13, 2020, 09:03:38 AM
I have never In my life seen so many weekends ruined by rain like we have had the past 3 months....nice during week , nasty on weekend, and I am on vacation the 21st through the 27th , watch what happens lol
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 13, 2020, 09:34:19 AM
Right...what are models looking like to you as far as rain? Iím not seeing much chance of severe storms
yeah your right ... seems weíre heading towards that scattered variety summer stuff.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 13, 2020, 10:07:22 AM
I think we are done with significant tornado events at least a far as long tracked supercells go in Dixie Alley and possibly the southern and eastern parts of Tornado Alley as well.  Significant ridging in the Central/Eastern USA into the prime time of mid to late May should limit that. I will say that rapidly fading El-Nino to La-Nina events do tend to create major tornado events in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes area in June so that area will need to be watched.

That doesn't mean that we can't get tornado threats from MCS/Derecho events or even the remains of tropical systems, but the classic supercell event is probably not something to worry about especially in a summer where Central and Eastern USA ridging will likely dominate.   



Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 13, 2020, 11:55:14 AM
I think we are done with significant tornado events at least a far as long tracked supercells go in Dixie Alley and possibly the southern and eastern parts of Tornado Alley as well.  Significant ridging in the Central/Eastern USA into the prime time of mid to late May should limit that. I will say that rapidly fading El-Nino to La-Nina events do tend to create major tornado events in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes area in June so that area will need to be watched.

That doesn't mean that we can't get tornado threats from MCS/Derecho events or even the remains of tropical systems, but the classic supercell event is probably not something to worry about especially in a summer where Central and Eastern USA ridging will likely dominate.

Agreed major severe weather season is coming to a close until the fall more than likely, amazing what just ONE supercell can do (march tornado) , it could have even been worse had the easter threat occurred a little more north than it did, as has been the pattern the past 10 years the widespread multiple supercell outbreaks have stayed to our south with the exception of the tornado that hit Chattanooga area.
I think we had our share for this year and have been through a lot
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Curt on May 13, 2020, 04:16:02 PM
Models taking a hit on endless 80ís with a significant cold front early next week. Highs in the low 70ís and lows in the upper 40ís  before we head back towards climo.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Crockett on May 13, 2020, 06:46:52 PM
Models taking a hit on endless 80ís with a significant cold front early next week. Highs in the low 70ís and lows in the upper 40ís  before we head back towards climo.

FFS. I'm not one of those people who screams for 110 heat index values and 95% humidity (okay, maybe every now and then to get under folks' skin a little  ;D) but this is becoming completely ridiculous!
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 13, 2020, 08:00:36 PM
As long as itís still getting up to at least the 70s during the day, Iím okay with that.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 14, 2020, 06:55:40 AM
If youíre in Middle TN today and close to the route on this map, be on the lookout for the Blue Angels flyover around noon.[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 14, 2020, 09:14:50 AM
If youíre in Middle TN today and close to the route on this map, be on the lookout for the Blue Angels flyover around noon. (Attachment Link)
aw man...western middle gets the shaft :(
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 14, 2020, 09:38:42 AM
aw man...western middle gets the shaft :(
They are flying over the hospitals..

St Thomas Rutherford--M'boro
Stonecrest- Smyrna
Williamson Medical Center- Franklin

Then Belle Meade starts all the Nashville hospitals at St Thomas West, then on from there.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 15, 2020, 07:00:04 AM
Well, this should excite Curt. :)

http://nypost.com/2020/05/14/the-sun-has-entered-a-lockdown-period-which-could-cause-freezing-weather-famine (http://nypost.com/2020/05/14/the-sun-has-entered-a-lockdown-period-which-could-cause-freezing-weather-famine)
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: TNHunter on May 15, 2020, 07:09:49 AM
Well, this should excite Curt. :)

http://nypost.com/2020/05/14/the-sun-has-entered-a-lockdown-period-which-could-cause-freezing-weather-famine (http://nypost.com/2020/05/14/the-sun-has-entered-a-lockdown-period-which-could-cause-freezing-weather-famine)

Interesting read.  Will be interesting to see how it affects our weather if true.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 15, 2020, 08:13:15 AM
Hey everybody, since it is getting close to the time where weather will be rinse and repeat for a few months so not much to discuss unless we get a summer MCS or two in here this year, I just wanted to say I had a great spring talking with fellow weather enthusiasts!!!!
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 15, 2020, 09:34:35 AM
As active as 2020 has been severe weather-wise for the Eastern USA, Kansas just reported their first tornado of the year last night which is pretty rare for that state to have to wait till mid-May to get their first tornado.   
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Matthew on May 15, 2020, 11:49:24 AM
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/state/north-carolina/article242761546.html
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 15, 2020, 02:43:41 PM
 tornado watch is issued for New England and Northeast, not rare, but not common either
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 15, 2020, 02:57:21 PM
tornado watch is issued for New England and Northeast, not rare, but not common either
It is a bit ahead of the norm, particularly for Vermont. That state is peak in later June to early August, with the ultimate peak in the first 10 days of July.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Curt on May 15, 2020, 08:22:54 PM
Well, this should excite Curt. :)

http://nypost.com/2020/05/14/the-sun-has-entered-a-lockdown-period-which-could-cause-freezing-weather-famine (http://nypost.com/2020/05/14/the-sun-has-entered-a-lockdown-period-which-could-cause-freezing-weather-famine)
Ha! Well the sun is ridiculous quiet for sure. There is a lag time for just about every long term weather effect so we shall see. I do like warm weather- just no endless mid 90ís or above. I think I will be out of luck at some point this summer.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 15, 2020, 09:11:32 PM
I enjoy warm weather also but the relentless sauna that west Tennessee can be sucks.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on May 16, 2020, 09:31:33 AM
Looks like our first 90 degree day of the year may fall on my birthday, 5/24. Thatís actually very late. Weíve hit 90 in mid March before. And last October we hit 100 twice. So the cool season had a very late start and a corresponding late finish.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: TNHunter on May 16, 2020, 09:41:55 AM
Looks like our first 90 degree day of the year may fall on my birthday, 5/24. Thatís actually very late. Weíve hit 90 in mid March before. And last October we hit 100 twice. So the cool season had a very late start and a corresponding late finish.

Sure has.  Weather and itís patterns are simply amazing.  We can think we have things figured out but ole Mother Nature will show humans who is boss every time lol.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on May 16, 2020, 09:49:52 AM
Looks like our first 90 degree day of the year may fall on my birthday, 5/24. Thatís actually very late. Weíve hit 90 in mid March before. And last October we hit 100 twice. So the cool season had a very late start and a corresponding late finish.

Happy early birthday, homie! Hope 32 treats you well.

I for one don't mind the delayed hot weather. That nasty heat last October did a number on me. I hated it.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 17, 2020, 07:51:50 PM
Thatís a pretty impressive bowing structure entering Dickson. Iím surprised it doesnít have a warning on it. Looks like 50-60mph on radar.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 17, 2020, 08:23:45 PM
Thatís a pretty impressive bowing structure entering Dickson. Iím surprised it doesnít have a warning on it. Looks like 50-60mph on radar.
I'm watching the lightning from my couch, looking out my back door. 50+ miles away.

"Heat" lightning, as it were. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200518/117d7830804b05d8b8841c85f3f3023e.jpg)

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Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on May 18, 2020, 07:00:01 AM
Things could get interesting for some of us this evening per MRX:

Quote
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
tonight, some of which will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall that may lead to flooding. Some of the stronger storms
may also have the potential to producing damgaing wind gusts and
an isolated tornado.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on May 18, 2020, 12:00:36 PM
Decent little cell with a good bit of thunder coming through West Knoxville at the moment.  Feels like a classic summer afternoon storm.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 18, 2020, 06:56:49 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zDh_aOfxNQ

25 years ago today
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 18, 2020, 07:55:52 PM
I sure remember that day.

25 years ago. Wow...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on May 18, 2020, 09:35:04 PM
Looks like we are going to wind up with more than 2Ē of rain from these storms tonight. It also looks like essentially daily chances for the next 7 days. That first 90 degree day may be further off than I thought.

EDIT: I actually wound up with 3.50" in the bucket this morning. It poured almost all night.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: gcbama on May 19, 2020, 02:26:24 PM
I sure remember that day.

25 years ago. Wow...

I was 10 and that's when I got obsessed with weather....in lewis county we got the hailcore from the f4 in Lawrence county ...I kid you know it was grapefruit...we had massive hail damage...there are a few pics of that wedge f4 on ohxÖ.some of that damage I still say was an f5 but just my opinion...much like I still think a small section of the cookville storm was also f5, but high end f4 or f5 is like splitting hairs
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NashRugger on May 19, 2020, 07:58:48 PM
Record rainfall lead to major river rises, one of which pushed Wixom Lake to the brim and now that dam has failed. They're worried the larger downstream Sanford Lake Dam will fail as well, which will inundate Midland and eventually most of Saginaw.
https://weather.com/news/news/2020-05-19-severe-weather-impacts-michigan-flooding-ohio-flooding (https://weather.com/news/news/2020-05-19-severe-weather-impacts-michigan-flooding-ohio-flooding)
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on May 20, 2020, 07:28:41 AM
Man. The GFS is  ::drowning::
Thursday and maybe Friday are the only dry days coming up.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2020, 09:57:19 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/weather/michigan-dam-breaches/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0Uv8WktOHQYxB4c6GUnRyba5STXrc5hlTQzdRVZ58rwFdhCfZKOE8S8JU

9 Feet of water could be pouring into a town about the size of Lebanon, TN.   
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Lucas on May 20, 2020, 02:07:42 PM
There was a funnel cloud sighting in Williamson county today!

https://twitter.com/NWSNashville/status/1263173584823791616
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 20, 2020, 02:39:49 PM
There was a funnel cloud sighting in Williamson county today!

https://twitter.com/NWSNashville/status/1263173584823791616
cold core funnel... with that upper level low hanging around... usually and mostly harmless ...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Coach B on May 21, 2020, 06:47:49 AM
This ULL has been sitting on top if us, for what, four days? I don't remember one hanging around this long. Impressive!
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on May 21, 2020, 02:28:37 PM
This ULL has been sitting on top if us, for what, four days? I don't remember one hanging around this long. Impressive!
I'm ready for it to be gone. 5.10" in the bucket this week.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 22, 2020, 07:32:51 AM
That looks like a late summer MCS moving through Southern Middle TN right now...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Curt on May 22, 2020, 10:28:54 AM
La Nina conditions are starting to take off in the eastern and mid Pacific. This may foretell a really active Atlantic. Now how many make it to the coast could be a different story- but the risks looks elevated for an above normal hurricane season in the Atlantic.

Looking way out there...winter season already starting to look like a weak to perhaps mod La Nina and a negative QBO. Looking very 2017-2018 ish. Way too early for anything more than just a basic look.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 22, 2020, 03:54:48 PM
Any chance this line holds together into Middle TN? I wouldn't mind some thunder and lightning this evening.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Curt on May 22, 2020, 04:02:21 PM
Small bow with 70mph winds about to come directly through Memphis metro.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: byrdymush on May 22, 2020, 04:32:14 PM
Small bow with 70mph winds about to come directly through Memphis metro.
Iím sitting on my front porch just north of Memphis, with a view to the south and west. (Besides the houses and power lines of the subdivision, I have a great, slightly-elevated view of storms marching in from the west...when they donít come through in the middle of the night!!) Looks like the windiest parts will be scooting north of Memphis - where Iím sitting.
Tree leaves have turned and cooler breeze is picking up.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: byrdymush on May 22, 2020, 04:59:41 PM
Iím sitting on my front porch just north of Memphis, with a view to the south and west. (Besides the houses and power lines of the subdivision, I have a great, slightly-elevated view of storms marching in from the west...when they donít come through in the middle of the night!!) Looks like the windiest parts will be scooting north of Memphis - where Iím sitting.
Tree leaves have turned and cooler breeze is picking up.
Or not. It looked gnarly but we didnít see much. All along I40 has storm reports. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200522/bb53aaa9fe2d2c8238b59f65af15f4db.jpg)


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Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Curt on May 22, 2020, 05:27:08 PM
And with the snap of a finger...50,000 people in Memphis out of power to start  the holiday weekend.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Matthew on May 22, 2020, 06:07:24 PM
Is 2020 over with yet
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 22, 2020, 07:29:15 PM
Is 2020 over with yet
now its time for the intense hurricanes...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: bugalou on May 22, 2020, 08:56:19 PM
Quietly watching to the west to see what if anything can form MCS wise.  We are in a good spot for a long track derecho if things develop in the right way. Combined with bow earlier we could have a power free weekend for some in Memphis.

MEG is a little dismissive, but did mention the threat in the afternoon AFD.  There are also cells popping in west-central AR already so it's worth watching. Personally I get far more excited for derecho development than Tornados.

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Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: NismoWx on May 23, 2020, 07:29:22 AM
And with the snap of a finger...50,000 people in Memphis out of power to start  the holiday weekend.
I'm in your neck of the woods this weekend. Woke up to thunder in Horn Lake at 6. Scared the dog, and me, admittedly.

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Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 23, 2020, 07:30:24 AM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on May 23, 2020, 07:46:48 AM
(Attachment Link)

I laugh often in my line of work because I hear the phrase " The rainy season will be starting soon." When the **** has it ended in the last 3 years?
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: TNHunter on May 23, 2020, 07:52:26 AM
I laugh often in my line of work because I hear the phrase " The rainy season will be starting soon." When the **** has it ended in the last 3 years?

Right!  The Mississippi River has stayed close or at flood stage for not telling how many months out of the past 2 years. 
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 23, 2020, 09:52:16 AM
I laugh often in my line of work because I hear the phrase " The rainy season will be starting soon." When the h to the e to the double hockey sticks has it ended in the last 3 years?

Our climate has become a 9-month monsoon that starts in October and ends in late June or sometime in July depending on the year followed by Dantes Rings of H to the E to the double hockey sticks from Late July to at least early October sometimes a little later. 

With the growing La-Nina I pretty much expect this summer to be manageable through June maybe early July and then the SE Ridge takes over and doesn't let go from mid-July through October.   

Think 2005, 2010, 2018, 2019, with a splash of 2007.   
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 23, 2020, 10:45:49 AM
Our climate has become a 9-month monsoon that starts in October and ends in late June or sometime in July depending on the year followed by Dantes Rings of H to the E to the double hockey sticks from Late July to at least early October sometimes a little later. 

With the growing La-Nina I pretty much expect this summer to be manageable through June maybe early July and then the SE Ridge takes over and doesn't let go from mid-July through October.   

Think 2005, 2010, 2018, 2019, with a splash of 2007.
for what I been reading deep into, this winter se ridge going flex little more this winter... than previous winters... interesting see how that plays out.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: StormNine on May 23, 2020, 03:09:46 PM
[attachimg=1]

The southern suburbs of the Windy City may be getting a bit windier. 
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 24, 2020, 08:45:52 AM
It looks like we are going to have to deal with a cut off low all next week. Chance of rain and storms every day.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 24, 2020, 08:36:10 PM
I was robbed of my Spring. I can even leave the country to get away from the tilt of the earth ending the greatest season on earth.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on May 25, 2020, 07:23:21 AM
As we are likely to continue to see plenty of rain and high water in our Tennessee lakes in the near future please remember to be safe on the water this summer, especially near dams.  We again had a tragic fatality at Fort Loudon Dam near Knoxville yesterday when a fishing boat below the dam was unable to restart its motor and was pulled into the spillway discharge area.  One man miraculously survived, his friend did not and was found 3/4 of a mile downstream.  At the time of the accident the dam was spilling 250,000 gallons per second.  People simply can't imagine how much power is involved with that kind of flow rate.  Stay away from the areas immediately above and below dams; currents can be powerful, unpredictable, and deadly.  Let's hope that yesterday's tragedy will be the last one on our waterways this year.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on May 26, 2020, 02:12:08 PM
Very unusual precip movement across the SE today. Everything is moving from SE to NW. You don't see that too often.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: BRUCE on May 26, 2020, 02:48:01 PM
Very unusual precip movement across the SE today. Everything is moving from SE to NW. You don't see that too often.
kind like a tropical system ...
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 26, 2020, 03:49:38 PM
We do have quite a juicy fetch coming up from the south.
Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: wfrogge on May 27, 2020, 10:20:32 PM
Storm chasing season has been "meh" this year. A few funnels, lots of hail, and lost a drone in the inflow of the Tishomingo MS tornado.

Tonight gave me a treat with the storms over east Shelby County. A possible funnel, rainbow, and fire sky.

(https://scontent.fmem1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/101463416_211384993719322_3973583487469879296_o.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=rxOam38Z-wwAX_jW3H4&_nc_ht=scontent.fmem1-1.fna&oh=11c992dcd2580f8a3fb6c833d2846a4a&oe=5EF44927)

(https://scontent.fmem1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/100696670_211385063719315_5598822000156999680_o.jpg?_nc_cat=106&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=Q0wFoTXiUHMAX-J56KB&_nc_ht=scontent.fmem1-1.fna&oh=3f4147f093718bd88aa36696f7575da2&oe=5EF40921)

(https://scontent.fmem1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/100849354_211385110385977_6490393915873558528_o.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=_C0YZCUdQSoAX9T0XZN&_nc_ht=scontent.fmem1-1.fna&oh=ba2088cd2dcb7d7e035babf0e607d248&oe=5EF62037)

(https://scontent.fmem1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/100899542_211384980385990_6972469304398708736_o.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=NeziIhCubBoAX-icCAP&_nc_ht=scontent.fmem1-1.fna&oh=e9f3f44a9d53784a08eb2dfa46cba1be&oe=5EF612C8)

Title: Re: May 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on May 28, 2020, 11:37:59 PM
Weather looks nice this weekend- 70s/50s and should be low humidity. Good camping weather.

Looks like it heats up next week (covered in the June thread).