Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => TNWx Vault of Fame and Infamy => Topic started by: cgauxknox on April 09, 2020, 10:01:22 AM

Title: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: cgauxknox on April 09, 2020, 10:01:22 AM
It's enough of a topic of discussion I'm going with the suggestion to start a thread.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 09, 2020, 10:10:32 AM
https://youtu.be/w6wRC4XlmwA

James Spann's Weather XTreme video this morning. Good part starts at 3:00.

 ::wow:: ::wow:: ::wow::
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2020, 10:32:26 AM
https://youtu.be/w6wRC4XlmwA

James Spann's Weather XTreme video this morning. Good part starts at 3:00.

 ::wow:: ::wow:: ::wow::

Spann is the man......that LOW placement near st louis would be bad news for us if that were to occur I would think, like I say I guess spc and everybody else is going with euro for now
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 09, 2020, 11:36:39 AM
Could change but I don't see much support for a a severe weather threat north of the Highway 82 corridor...in-line with SPC's thinking. Looks like possible heavy rain maker and general thunderstorms for Tennessee itself...with I-20 and south as the focus for more significant severe weather potential.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2020, 11:42:44 AM
Could change but I don't see much support for a a severe weather threat north of the Highway 82 corridor...in-line with SPC's thinking. Looks like possible heavy rain maker and general thunderstorms for Tennessee itself...with I-20 and south as the focus for more significant severe weather potential.

been same kind of story for past decade, the big potential outbreaks have been from tupelo to Huntsville and places south from hwy 72 corridor, just interesting....not complaining about it though lol
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 09, 2020, 11:45:48 AM
I would imagine two threats could pop up here.

1) The main one and the most significant being LA/MS/AL/GA/and potentially adjacent parts of Arkansas and Tennessee.  These areas have the best large scale combo of all that you need for severe weather.  As of now likely expect at least a Moderate Risk of severe weather in at least some of those locations unless things drastically change. 

2) The triple point in Arkansas into Southeastern Missouri.  Anytime you have a strong powerhouse low-pressure system with abundant moisture return one always has to respect the triple-point setup.  The biggest caveat here would be the potential for storms to the south to rob the area of the ripe moisture return needed but if you can an EML or any sort of dry slot then I would expect the triple point to be a trouble spot.   
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2020, 11:55:37 AM
I would imagine two threats could pop up here.

1) The main one and the most significant being LA/MS/AL/GA/and potentially adjacent parts of Arkansas and Tennessee.  These areas have the best large scale combo of all that you need for severe weather.  As of now likely expect at least a Moderate Risk of severe weather in at least some of those locations unless things drastically change. 

2) The triple point in Arkansas into Southeastern Missouri.  Anytime you have a strong powerhouse low-pressure system with abundant moisture return one always has to respect the triple-point setup.  The biggest caveat here would be the potential for storms to the south to rob the area of the ripe moisture return needed but if you can an EML or any sort of dry slot then I would expect the triple point to be a trouble spot.

I am wondering if there will be storms along gulf early in the day that could inhibit moisture returns to the north....will be interesting but clearly the threat for now is central and southern ms/al/ga
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2020, 12:25:20 PM
I would imagine two threats could pop up here.

1) The main one and the most significant being LA/MS/AL/GA/and potentially adjacent parts of Arkansas and Tennessee.  These areas have the best large scale combo of all that you need for severe weather.  As of now likely expect at least a Moderate Risk of severe weather in at least some of those locations unless things drastically change. 

2) The triple point in Arkansas into Southeastern Missouri.  Anytime you have a strong powerhouse low-pressure system with abundant moisture return one always has to respect the triple-point setup.  The biggest caveat here would be the potential for storms to the south to rob the area of the ripe moisture return needed but if you can an EML or any sort of dry slot then I would expect the triple point to be a trouble spot.
spot on
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2020, 12:26:57 PM
I am wondering if there will be storms along gulf early in the day that could inhibit moisture returns to the north....will be interesting but clearly the threat for now is central and southern ms/al/ga
as now. No model is showing convection along the gulf coast at this time
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: wfrogge on April 09, 2020, 12:31:52 PM
as now. No model is showing convection along the gulf coast at this time

Too early to tell IMHO

But if we want to look at what is showing there is plenty of cloud cover and this is the first storm where the gulf is open for business. So its a possibility.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2020, 02:16:39 PM
There's going to be a ton of warm air advection northward which could spawn convection.  OHX and SPC both alluded to it.  We've all seen it happen with these kinds of setups.  Very rare that you get a crapvection-free warm sector across a large area.

as now. No model is showing convection along the gulf coast at this time

Not talking along the gulf coast.  The issue is with crapvection within the Tennessee Valley that would limit the northern expanse of the severe threat.  Plus, that's a mesoscale feature.  No model can see that yet.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2020, 02:37:02 PM
There's going to be a ton of warm air advection northward which could spawn convection.  OHX and SPC both alluded to it.  We've all seen it happen with these kinds of setups.  Very rare that you get a crapvection-free warm sector across a large area.

Not talking along the gulf coast.  The issue is with crapvection within the Tennessee Valley that would limit the northern expanse of the severe threat.  Plus, that's a mesoscale feature.  No model can see that yet.
gc bama was asking bout potential convection along gulf coast... yeah I can see some crap hanging around northern Alabama and north ms which could shunt the warm front
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2020, 03:44:51 PM
gc bama was asking bout potential convection along gulf coast... yeah I can see some crap hanging around northern Alabama and north ms which could shunt the warm front

Much like how april 27th we were mostly spared by the rain, never know what meso features will come into play
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 09, 2020, 03:52:26 PM
Much like how april 27th we were mostly spared by the rain, never know what meso features will come into play

4/24/2010 and 4/15/2011 are other examples of this as well. Both of those events are pretty similar on a macro scale to the projected Easter Weekend event.   
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2020, 03:58:14 PM
4/24/2010 and 4/15/2011 are other examples of this as well. Both of those events are pretty similar on a macro scale to the projected Easter Weekend event.

I have said it before, it has happened that way here several times in last decade, even the great flood of 2010 was supposed to be a severe weather outbreak here and turned into our record flood event
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2020, 04:02:04 PM
I have said it before, it has happened that way here several times in last decade, even the great flood of 2010 was supposed to be a severe weather outbreak here and turned into our record flood event

Twas also a severe weather event.  Multiple TORs.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: andyhb on April 09, 2020, 04:03:00 PM
Just gonna say that people looking for a big TN threat here barring some significant changes are barking up the wrong tree. Maybe it creeps into S Middle TN later on or E TN, but I don't see a major threat for Memphis/Nashville/the I-40 corridor at this time.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2020, 04:06:28 PM
Twas also a severe weather event.  Multiple TORs.

I mean nothing like it could have been....flooding was the prime story for us is what I was getting at
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2020, 04:07:33 PM
Just gonna say that people looking for a big TN threat here barring some significant changes are barking up the wrong tree. Maybe it creeps into S Middle TN later on or E TN, but I don't see a major threat for Memphis/Nashville/the I-40 corridor at this time.

Agreed it clearly looks like Jackson/Tuscaloosa and b-ham and points south look to see the brunt of this as of now
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2020, 03:09:00 AM
Big changes by spc... big north trend . Day 3 enhanced for midsouth. Tenn valley . Large moderate just to our south  day 3
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 10, 2020, 06:43:19 AM
MEM did a video on Facebook this morning with some VERY strong wording. Glad they're doing it. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200410/6058c0fcf6043b2debbce4b9801e240d.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 06:43:32 AM
My goodness poor MS and AL sitting on a powder keg on sundayÖ..will be close call for south of I-40 here in tn....might not have enough time to really destabilize once the warm front finally passes and convection leaves but there is still a good threat here as well...but Ms and AL is a powder keg....will be a High risk day at least by sunday, would not be shocked to see a day 2 high risk and the mod risk expand a little more north
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 10, 2020, 06:43:59 AM
:wow::wow:(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200410/7c8d2e312afe4df7cb4df333104f60e2.jpg)

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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 06:53:09 AM
:wow::wow:(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200410/7c8d2e312afe4df7cb4df333104f60e2.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I think we all knew that Jackson to b-ham corridor was prime Ö. what is concerning for us is the possibility of a northward trend as we are in enhanced zone now....IF early convection gets out of here and we have a few hours of clearing then we would be on powder keg also...Mississippi and Bama look to have several hours of destabilization....hard not to see the similarities to april 27

I think it could be a day that you look at radar and get a chilling effect seeing several rotating supercells....
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2020, 07:54:50 AM
My goodness poor MS and AL sitting on a powder keg on sundayÖ..will be close call for south of I-40 here in tn....might not have enough time to really destabilize once the warm front finally passes and convection leaves but there is still a good threat here as well...but Ms and AL is a powder keg....will be a High risk day at least by sunday, would not be shocked to see a day 2 high risk and the mod risk expand a little more north
trend keeps slowing down. Allowing better quality warm sector up to southern tennessee as now
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 08:11:24 AM
trend keeps slowing down. Allowing better quality warm sector up to southern tennessee as now

I do think I-40 and south "could" end up in moderate range places like deacturville, Hohenwald, Jackson, Columbia and points south,  but it will not be the same atmosphere that will be available in Ms and Al down there looks BRUTAL.....that said we will still probably see some really significant weather here as we are in hatched area....but maybe just not as numerous as to our south
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2020, 08:15:52 AM
I do think I-40 and south "could" end up in moderate range places like deacturville, Hohenwald, Jackson, Columbia and points south,  but it will not be the same atmosphere that will be available in Ms and Al down there looks BRUTAL.....that said we will still probably see some really significant weather here as we are in hatched area....but maybe just not as numerous as to our south
agree at this moment... but trend is going be big key on todayís runs
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 08:28:46 AM
agree at this moment... but trend is going be big key on todayís runs

true,,,things can always change, only thing that could hold us back for major potential is the lack of time to destabilize after the warm front convection pass by...at this point only looks like 2-3 hours....if that could be more like 4-5 hours then look out...but again places south are going to be destabilizing for 7-8 hours , look scary for them right now
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on April 10, 2020, 08:40:11 AM
Willing to bet a small sum of pennies we see a HIGH risk before it's all said and done with.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 08:43:34 AM
Willing to bet a small sum of pennies we see a HIGH risk before it's all said and done with.

Yep I said that earlier as well....I see a day 2 high risk happening honestly just to our south
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: wfrogge on April 10, 2020, 09:17:49 AM
few folks here have posted that the main threat is south of the state and that is true and most of those posts were before this new 3 day outlook so there is that as well.  With that said cover with your hand the threat to the south of us and look at the portions of our state that are enhanced risk and hatched..... Its more than 1/2 of the state at this time.

If the area just south of us wasn't under any risk and we were in the enhanced hatch 3 days out how would we react? Time to start ringing the severe weather threat alarms to all our friends IMHO.  Don't need to stress this too much for the folks here I know.... I am just alarmed myself
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 09:21:39 AM
few folks here have posted that the main threat is south of the state and that is true. With that said cover with your hand the threat to the south of us and look at the portions of our state that are enhanced risk and hatched..... Its more than 1/2 of the state at this time.

If the area just south of us wasn't under any risk and we were in the enhanced hatch 3 days out how would we react? Time to start ringing the severe weather threat alarms to all our friends IMHO

Don't disagree at all with that, 3 day enhanced is no joke and I think some of our state could end up in moderate.....but just 50-75 miles south of us will probably be in the HIGH category is all I was saying...a red letter day for midsouth and gulf states possibly
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JTM1988 on April 10, 2020, 09:37:58 AM
Question for someone: Seems like the NAM shows an initial threat of supercells from Shreveport(ish) to Birmingham with an additional wave developing further Northwest around the MS river south of Memphis around 21z and flying into Mid TN with really high STP and cape. I donít believe other models are showing this. Any chance thatís believable at the moment?


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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 10, 2020, 09:49:45 AM
Could change but I don't see much support for a a severe weather threat north of the Highway 82 corridor...in-line with SPC's thinking. Looks like possible heavy rain maker and general thunderstorms for Tennessee itself...with I-20 and south as the focus for more significant severe weather potential.

Said it could change... and the primary way it changes is the system overall slowing...which gives more time for the warm sector to push north and also puts the primary low a bit further west.

Certainly the trend in guidance is moving in that direction the last 12 hours. The 12z NAM is especially alarming regarding this. It is the NAM of course...but there is a trend. So Yes...if I was in TN I would begin to start treating this seriously (even if yes the greatest *confidence* in threat remains south of the state at this time)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 10:00:11 AM
Question for someone: Seems like the NAM shows an initial threat of supercells from Shreveport(ish) to Birmingham with an additional wave developing further Northwest around the MS river south of Memphis around 21z and flying into Mid TN with really high STP and cape. I donít believe other models are showing this. Any chance thatís believable at the moment?


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If supercells pop in N/W Mississippi late in afternoon then we will be in trouble as they trek northeast :( it is possible given trends
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 10:57:20 AM
alabamawx.com shows a nam model with a 10 stp over mid tn just as an fyi
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 10, 2020, 11:13:17 AM
 ::coffee::

This morning's Weather XTreme video. #SpannTheMan

https://youtu.be/CqG_b5Cczus?t=101
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 11:22:13 AM
::coffee::

This morning's Weather XTreme video. #SpannTheMan

https://youtu.be/CqG_b5Cczus?t=101

Any type of weather threat, I watch him for his analysis and advice.....NOBODY is better, and something else I like is he is not scared to question the spc or nws about warnings and other things and admits when things are a bust....humble man he is, and a fantastic meteorologist
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 10, 2020, 11:34:03 AM
GFS still isn't quite with the NAM and would keep the threat more contained south... as the warm front struggles to push north due to continued AM convection that day... so we will see. Still plenty of uncertainty yet.

Meanwhile...sign of the times here...
Quote
 
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... 
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. 
   
DAY ONE 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT 
 
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR 
THE TENNESSEE RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING TOMORROW. 
   
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN 
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF 
NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ENHANCED RISK 
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG I-40, AND A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE   
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES   
ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY   
RAINFALL. A FEW STRONG, LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE   
OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. 
 
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ALSO BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY. 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
EVENING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WHILE FOLLOWING   
ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES.
 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 11:44:32 AM
GFS still isn't quite with the NAM and would keep the threat more contained south... as the warm front struggles to push north due to continued AM convection that day... so we will see. Still plenty of uncertainty yet.

Meanwhile...sign of the times here...

yep the classic am convection scenario could spare us yet again :)....we shall see
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Lcwthrnut on April 10, 2020, 11:55:32 AM
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
EVENING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WHILE FOLLOWING   
ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES.

Also stay safe and do this responsibly!! Going to be an interesting 48 hours leading up to this.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 10, 2020, 12:15:47 PM
yep the classic am convection scenario could spare us yet again :)....we shall see

I wouldn't count on it this year.  Western and middle TN's relative luck with dodging big events seems to be up.  Its early April and we have already had confirmed Tornadoes in the Memphis, Jonesboro (AR), Jackson, and Nashville metro areas.  I for one am quite worried about this setup, especially falling on a holiday.  Saving grace may actually be the coronavirus and it limiting big events.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 10, 2020, 12:22:07 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/6v8cL1h.jpg)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 12:22:16 PM
I wouldn't count on it this year.  Western and middle TN's relative luck with dodging big events seems to be up.  Its early April and we have already had confirmed Tornadoes in the Memphis, Jonesboro (AR), Jackson, and Nashville metro areas.  I for one am quite worried about this setup, especially falling on a holiday.  Saving grace may actually be the coronavirus and it limiting big events.

True, all it would take is for things to the west to slow down a bit and allow more time for the rain shield to leave....for us it's a big threat for sure, ingredients will be there, it just looks more of a guarantee farther south that's the only reason we aren't in the mod risk zone as of yet
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 10, 2020, 12:25:11 PM
I was reminded this morning of 2009 Good Friday tornado in Murfreesboro and 2013's model madness for the Apr 11, 2013 MS/AL event that included a long track EF-3. That was the day I registered on this site.

To think, almost 10 years later, I'm sitting here doing the same thing, about to look up the 18z model runs, and hope it's not worse than the previous runs..
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on April 10, 2020, 12:26:56 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/6v8cL1h.jpg)
Help me out here. Whatís this showing?


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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 10, 2020, 12:33:01 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/6v8cL1h.jpg)

One thing to point out as it relates to this...and this assumes the NAM is right...the degree and orientation of lift near the triple point may argue the threat in this area (being Memphis/W-Middle TN/N MS/SE AR) might be more centered around a QLCS (though certainly with a tornado threat) vs the more discrete threat across the broad warm sector in Central MS/AL. The NAM reflectivity explicitly suggests this as well.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 12:33:18 PM
anybody else see the nam that showed STP of 10 over our area on alabamawx?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
anybody else see the nam that showed STP of 10 over our area on alabamawx?
yes. I did
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 12:37:05 PM
yes. I did

Do we know what our forecast soundings are showing yet? Tuscaloosa and Birmingham showed PDS situation based on modeling according to spann
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Curt on April 10, 2020, 12:39:45 PM
3k NAM looks like lots of convection through mid afternoon Sunday. There no more data just after 60 hours, but the main energy at that point is ejecting out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas with a dramatic increase in instability through central Arkansas. Central MS is ripe for tornadoes if something can get going early afternoon Sunday - although there may be a cap down there for awhile. Awaiting the euro but this mornings run would indicate cape near 2000 roaring back into West TN late Sunday afternoon.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 10, 2020, 12:43:46 PM
3k NAM looks like lots of convection through mid afternoon Sunday. There no more data just after 60 hours, but the main energy at that point is ejecting out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas with a dramatic increase in instability through central Arkansas. Central MS is ripe for tornadoes if something can get going early afternoon Sunday - although there may be a cap down there for awhile. Awaiting the euro but this mornings run would indicate cape near 2000 roaring back into West TN late Sunday afternoon.
If the Euro doesnt outright shoot this down, I would expect the Moderate risk to expand northward to include a good chunk of west TN.  Central MS will likely get a high risk bullseye.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 12:50:41 PM
If the Euro doesnt outright shoot this down, I would expect the Moderate risk to expand northward to include a good chunk of west TN.  Central MS will likely get a high risk bullseye.

I am with you, bullseye for high risk is ms and west central and north Bama and remembering storms in north ms could very well track into our area....Moderate risk I would think would include south of I-40 here in Tennessee just my opinion...I would think PDS watches will be a big part of the day sunday
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 10, 2020, 01:11:01 PM
I would probably hold off on a High Risk anywhere at least in the Day 2 timeframe (remember that has only happened like twice or maybe three times) until we see how the earlier convection will play out and we see how strong the CAP is in the warm sector of Central MS/AL.

This has High-Risk potential no doubt and at least a fairly widespread severe weather event is likely a slam dunk, but there are questions that need to be answered that will determine how high the tornado and especially significant tornado threat will go.   
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 10, 2020, 01:30:17 PM
 ::wow:: GFS 12z sounding for Murfreesboro, valid at 6pm CST. I haven't seen a slinky that straight in a while!

(https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2020041012_GFS_057_35.92,-86.37_severe_ml.png)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 01:35:46 PM
::wow:: GFS 12z sounding for Murfreesboro, valid at 6pm CST. I haven't seen a slinky that straight in a while!

(https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2020041012_GFS_057_35.92,-86.37_severe_ml.png)

That's what I was wanting to see, if any tn soundings were showing PDS situation, and indeed it is

Of course I am not well versed in actually understanding these charts/graphs that well, but PDS wording is scary
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 01:38:11 PM
I would probably hold off on a High Risk anywhere at least in the Day 2 timeframe (remember that has only happened like twice or maybe three times) until we see how the earlier convection will play out and we see how strong the CAP is in the warm sector of Central MS/AL.

This has High-Risk potential no doubt and at least a fairly widespread severe weather event is likely a slam dunk, but there are questions that need to be answered that will determine how high the tornado and especially significant tornado threat will go.

I can understand that......even april 27th wasn't a day 2 high risk.....But I could see it going either way
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 10, 2020, 01:43:42 PM
That's what I was wanting to see, if any tn soundings were showing PDS situation, and indeed it is

Of course I am not well versed in actually understanding these charts/graphs that well, but PDS wording is scary

That's the only one I saw. I wasn't expecting it in Mid TN.


Timing is everything in this event.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 10, 2020, 01:49:38 PM
The look doesn't improve much if at all throughout the evening as it progresses east.  ::wow::

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: wfrogge on April 10, 2020, 01:56:25 PM
yep the classic am convection scenario could spare us yet again :)....we shall see

Or it could give the afternoon storms OFBs to work with :) .  Going to be interesting watching this one play out
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 10, 2020, 01:58:57 PM
Also keep in mind.  Yes early convection can limit the threat but also enhance the threat as was seen in 2011 by leaving boundaries.  Still much unresolved but warm front near us can also add fuel.  Trends not liking. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 02:00:06 PM
Or it could give the afternoon storms OFBs to work with :) .  Going to be interesting watching this one play out

that is very true as well.....remains to be seen
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 03:27:24 PM
lol Idk what to think, I see stp values off the chart in nw bama northeast ms and places like perry, wayne, lewis, maury, williamson and Lawrence counties, but cape only getting to around 800'ish and mode at that time looks like a line?....maybe the shear is causing that number to be so high, it is quite impressive shear numbers
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 10, 2020, 03:50:08 PM
A combo of the 18z NAM/12z ECMWF is certainly a dangerous combo.
Title: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Curt on April 10, 2020, 03:51:31 PM
A combo of the 18z NAM/12z ECMWF is certainly a dangerous combo.
18z Nam pushes cape values to around 3000 into the Memphis metro early evening Sunday night with a squall line approaching. Some pretty ripe air after the CIN disappears.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 10, 2020, 03:57:04 PM
18z Nam pushes cape values to around 3000 into the Memphis metro early evening Sunday night with a squall line approaching. Some pretty ripe air after the CIN disappears.

Still some questions out there to be sure. Typical ones for these kinds of set ups. Progress of warm front vs advancing convection .... storm mode/evolution in the triple point region ... degree of surface convergence/forcing for broad warm sector discrete development. These are questions that separate a notable and still signifcant type event vs those that are broadly remembered in years following...
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 04:05:00 PM
18z Nam pushes cape values to around 3000 into the Memphis metro early evening Sunday night with a squall line approaching. Some pretty ripe air after the CIN disappears.

could that be a line of supercells like good Friday 09?
Or if cape gets that high before a line is even there in memphis could that mean we would be seeing discrete Mississippi spuercells crossing into our area? a lot to digest
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 04:20:21 PM
ohx discussion

 Should the
low track further north, and allow for additional instability to
reach the mid state, the potential for a few long track,
significant tornadoes will be possible as well.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 07:01:07 PM
any new model updates friends? I never have been good at locating them or navigating them so I always rely on you all :)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Runman290 on April 10, 2020, 07:18:04 PM
MRXís AFD this afternoon was definitely eye opening. Praying that it wonít be too bad in East TN or anywhere else.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 07:22:49 PM
MRXís AFD this afternoon was definitely eye opening. Praying that it wonít be too bad in East TN or anywhere else.

wow and they are usually very conservative , I do agree that somewhere around I-40 and south will "probably" be in moderate risk by sunday morning
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Runman290 on April 10, 2020, 07:44:07 PM
wow and they are usually very conservative , I do agree that somewhere around I-40 and south will "probably" be in moderate risk by sunday morning

They are usually the last to jump onto discussing severe weather and winter weather for that matter. When they use the word outbreak, I know things are serious.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 10, 2020, 07:44:56 PM
Well if true that planes have not been flying to sample data even though this system should be well sampled by now. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.  High bust potential to being a serious outbreak.  I hate using that word outbreak.  Definitely wx aware for the next 24-48 hours.  The earlier skew was definitely alarming for Murfreesboro which is next to me. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 10, 2020, 07:45:52 PM
They are usually the last to jump onto discussing severe weather and winter weather for that matter. When they use the word outbreak, I know things are serious.
I have not read it but they used word outbreak?  That is very rare indeed.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Runman290 on April 10, 2020, 07:48:24 PM
I have not read it but they used word outbreak?  That is very rare indeed.

First line in the long term discussion: A severe weather outbreak with the potential for tornadoes,
damaging winds, large hail, and flooding looks increasingly possible.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 10, 2020, 07:53:30 PM
First line in the long term discussion: A severe weather outbreak with the potential for tornadoes,
damaging winds, large hail, and flooding looks increasingly possible.
Thank you.  I read latest from OHX at 6 update.  They use outbreak also.  Seriously we have had enough thrown at us in TN.  Tornadoes to Virus.  We need a severe wx dome/shield over TN like our snow dome/shield.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 07:55:00 PM
if that low pressure is more north even by 50-75 miles then pretty much all of TN would be also on a powder keg even the northern half I would think
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 07:56:27 PM
Thank you.  I read latest from OHX at 6 update.  They use outbreak also.  Seriously we have had enough thrown at us in TN.  Tornadoes to Virus.  We need a severe wx dome/shield over TN like our snow dome/shield.

to be honest all things considering besides the march tornados we had this year...we have been VERY lucky the past decade being spared several times from supercells
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: angrypug on April 10, 2020, 08:27:11 PM
to be honest all things considering besides the march tornados we had this year...we have been VERY lucky the past decade being spared several times from supercells

I'm in Cookeville and all its takes is one super cell that goes tornadic to destroy a lot of families forever.  As bad as it has been here for infrastructure damage I can't imagine what Alabama went through in 2011 with multiple long lived F4's doing damage across the entire northern part of the state. As a life long weather enthusiast, seeing the damage here has given me a new perspective.  There are large steel beams just wrapped around tree's.  It not even describable unless you see the damage in person.  I had seen damage to places such as Moore and Joplin from videos but seeing it in person to friends homes and neighborhoods doesn't seem real.

And it may seem selfish, but this virus has taken away a good deal of the aid and volunteer help folks were receiving. A f4 tornado and this virus in the same month has been awful.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 10, 2020, 08:32:04 PM
It wouldn't surprise me to see a strong tornado tomorrow night/wee morning hours of Sunday in South-Central TX.  There is plenty of instability over there with a ramping up low-level jet.

As far as closer to home we are starting to see that trend of getting the unstable air into Tennessee.  The big concerns are those that have been stated storm mode, Capping in the warm sector, and clouds and crapvection out ahead. With such a powerhouse low and a rich quality airmass moving in it is almost certain we will have severe weather including a tornado threat.  The question will mainly hinge on the significant tornado threat. 

This setup is actually a lot like January 11th of this year meets say 4/24/2010 or 4/15/2011.  Combining a dynamic low pressure system and ample low level shear/turning with a rich airmass.   
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 10, 2020, 08:35:05 PM
I'm in Cookeville and all its takes is one super cell that goes tornadic to destroy a lot of families forever.  As bad as it has been here for infrastructure damage I can't imagine what Alabama went through in 2011 with multiple long lived F4's doing damage across the entire northern part of the state. As a life long weather enthusiast, seeing the damage here has given me a new perspective.  There are large steel beams just wrapped around tree's.  It not even describable unless you see the damage in person.  I had seen damage to places such as Moore and Joplin from videos but seeing it in person to friends homes and neighborhoods doesn't seem real.

And it may seem selfish, but this virus has taken away a good deal of the aid and volunteer help folks were receiving. A f4 tornado and this virus in the same month has been awful.

I am sorry that you all had to go through it.  We can compare this potential event to other events in history and say this is worse than "insert event here" but all it takes is one storm to change lives forever.  March 2-3rd of this year was a major lesson in that.  The lesson we all learned is that any threat needs to be taken seriously until otherwise proven that it is not. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on April 10, 2020, 08:37:37 PM
18z NAM3, 10pm Sunday night for Murfreesboro.

(https://i.imgur.com/BymS5do.png)

Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 08:40:18 PM
I'm in Cookeville and all its takes is one super cell that goes tornadic to destroy a lot of families forever.  As bad as it has been here for infrastructure damage I can't imagine what Alabama went through in 2011 with multiple long lived F4's doing damage across the entire northern part of the state. As a life long weather enthusiast, seeing the damage here has given me a new perspective.  There are large steel beams just wrapped around tree's.  It not even describable unless you see the damage in person.  I had seen damage to places such as Moore and Joplin from videos but seeing it in person to friends homes and neighborhoods doesn't seem real.

And it may seem selfish, but this virus has taken away a good deal of the aid and volunteer help folks were receiving. A f4 tornado and this virus in the same month has been awful.

very true just takes on supercell to devastate communities :(.....thank goodness in recent years we haven't had days of multiple supercells.....I hope that doesn't happen this weekend
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 08:43:02 PM
18z NAM3, 10pm Sunday night for Murfreesboro.

(https://i.imgur.com/BymS5do.png)

that's the second time today it has stated that hazard type is PDS tornado...the northward trend cannot be overlooked. It really will only take the low being a small distance farther north and west and we will be in a serious threat area. And things evolve as the event occurs....plenty of times we have went from a moderate risk in the morning to be upgraded by afternoon to high risk....not saying that will happen but weather has its own mind....also risk zones to me really indicate the coverage sometimes more then the severity...even in an enhanced zones you can very much get a few supercells maybe just not quite as much as a moderate or high risk zone
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 10, 2020, 08:59:03 PM
18z NAM3, 10pm Sunday night for Murfreesboro.

(https://i.imgur.com/BymS5do.png)
That's two different models in agreement now.. I posted the GFS earlier this morning. Unreal.


Edit: I just realized I posted the NAM, not the GFS.

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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 09:06:06 PM
what is scary is the fact that IF we do get unstable air in here, we will have some outflow boundaries to work with as well as somebody else mentioned earlier....if rain gets outta here say by noon or 1 pm then I think it would be time to be really concerned about that
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 10, 2020, 09:32:34 PM
0Z NAM is extraordinarily ominous
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on April 10, 2020, 09:32:59 PM
That's two different models in agreement now.. I posted the GFS earlier this morning. Unreal.


Edit: I just realized I posted the NAM, not the GFS.

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Now we know why they say the same thing!   ;D
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2020, 09:35:26 PM
0Z NAM is extraordinarily ominous

For our area? Missippi and Bama? or just overall for everybody?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 10, 2020, 09:36:46 PM
For our area? Missippi and Bama? or just overall for everybody?

Pretty much everybody.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on April 10, 2020, 09:49:19 PM
Pretty much everybody.

Concur.  Everyone south of the Ohio needs to be weather aware Sunday.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2020, 09:50:38 PM
Concur.  Everyone south of the Ohio needs to be weather aware Sunday.
wow large warm sector. Dews mid 60 edging in west Kentucky
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 10, 2020, 10:01:44 PM
On the flip side.... the two WRF models have the warm front struggling to get north of Highway 82 and keep the threat contained to MS/AL much like yesterdayís SPC outlook...
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: schneitzeit on April 10, 2020, 10:34:54 PM
Anyone else gonna get drunk and get ready for some big storms on Sunday?  >:D  8)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 10, 2020, 10:43:54 PM
Granted the NAM is usually aggressive on things but it is noteworthy that my location in KY has triggered a PDS Tornado sounding.   
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Runman290 on April 10, 2020, 10:44:58 PM
Looks like MRX might be backtracking on their last AFD. It may just be me, but on their recent Facebook post, it appears that theyíre saying only some areas in East Tn may see some severe thunderstorms. Thatís a big departure from the afternoon AFD.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 10, 2020, 10:51:06 PM
The Flash Flooding threat is legit with this one as well.  Do not underestimate it.  The latest GFS shows a swath of 5-7 inches of rain during this event.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 10, 2020, 10:57:41 PM
The NAM and GFS paint a different picture on both severe and flooding threats. 

The NAM is more unstable and dynamic and is faster with the warm front.  Therefore greater severe weather threat for TN but less of a flash flood threat.  The Flash Flood threat is from NE Arkansas into Kentucky/Southern Indiana. 

The GFS hangs things around Southern TN/North MS/AL area.  Therefore a lesser severe weather threat but rounds of heavy rain pound southern and eastern TN.  More significant flooding.  Wherever this front hangs out during the afternoon/early evening is going to have a flooding threat.  South of the flooding threat will be the main severe threat. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2020, 11:10:16 PM
We are within 2 hours away  from a brand new day 2 threat from SPC
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 10, 2020, 11:22:09 PM
Will be interesting.  Can we be saved  by the warm front hanging across this area with flooding rains or does warm front go north of us. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 11, 2020, 02:23:20 AM
Anyone else gonna get drunk and get ready for some big storms on Sunday?  >:D  8)

If you have a family or any responsibilities I would suggest staying sober for this.  Very ominous.  This is coming from a borderline alcoholic.  ;D
Title: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Michael on April 11, 2020, 05:31:17 AM
MRXís AFD at 3:55am April 11...
The bolded part of this quote is scary. (Near end of the quote)
Quote
Key messages continue unchanged from the previous forecast thinking:

1. A severe weather outbreak with the potential for tornadoes,
damaging winds, large hail, and flooding looks increasingly possible
on Easter Sunday into Sunday night. Area of greatest concern for
severe weather and flooding will be south and west of Knoxville.
2. High winds in the mountains and adjacent foothills of East
Tennessee Sunday.
3. Generally quiet weather next week with temps much below normal.

Sunday and Sunday night...

Rain chances will be ramping up Sunday morning as strong moisture
advection and frontogenetic forcing spread from SW to NE ahead of
the negatively-tilted shotrwave trough over the Plains. This initial
round of convection Sunday morning will be elevated as the surface
warm front remains well to our south. Moderate rainfall rates from
this round will prime the soil for the second round of heavier
rainfall in the late afternoon/evening. Through the day, the
southerly LLJ will be strengthening to around 60 kts in the evening,
and with an inversion located around mountain top height, we will
have a favorable setup for a mountain wave event that will produce
gusts of 70+ mph in the mountains and adjacent foothills. The High
Wind Watch will continue unchanged.

Supercells are expected to form across MS/AL Sunday afternoon, with
the steering flow taking them NE toward our area. Strong upper
divergence due to jet exit/entrance region coupling will allow these
storms to maintain their intensity into the evening. In addition,
the surface warm front will be lifting north, allowing for
convection to become surface-based. One uncertainty with this event
continues to be how far north that front will lift, which will
impact the northward extent of the tornado threat for our area. The
SPC Day 2 Outlook has expanded the Enhanced risk area northward,
which reflects the NAM`s trend of a more northward warm front. Near
and south of this front, which stretches from the northern Plateau
to SW NC, the NAM shows a favorable environment for supercells,
which overlaps with the strongest forcing aloft in the 03-06Z time
frame. Based on the 0-1 km SRH, LCL heights, 0-3 km CAPE, and STP
values from the NAM across the Plateau and southern Valley, and the
favorable jet coupling aloft, this event has the potential to pose
the most significant tornado threat we have had since April 27,
2011.
While the tornado threat is expected to be lower to the north
of the warm front, there will still be a threat of damaging straight-
line winds as a QLCS is expected to cross the area overnight along a
pre-frontal trough after 06Z. Heavy rain Sunday night may also
create flooding problems and bring river levels close to flood
stage. Rain amounts for the Sunday-Sunday night period are expected
to be 1.5-3.5 inch range for most spots. A Flood Watch may be needed
as we get closer to the event.

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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: cgauxknox on April 11, 2020, 06:47:29 AM
MRXís AFD at 3:55am April 11...
The bolded part of this quote is scary. (Near end of the quote)
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Knowing how conservative MRX is with their forecasting this is really concerning. Add to the overall situation the distractions of a pandemic and a major holiday and this setup could be very scary. I hope people are paying attention and taking this seriously.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 11, 2020, 07:48:06 AM
Now we know why they say the same thing!   ;D
Don't ask me how I messed that up. Twas a long day for me yesterday!

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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 11, 2020, 08:05:27 AM
The rainfall on the GFS is going to be a big issue here. We arenít totally saturated, but soil moisture is still above normal. Itís a 1-2 punch of convective supercells and flooding.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 11, 2020, 09:12:15 AM
The thing that makes the GFS less ominous severe weather-wise is what makes it more ominous in flooding for southern and eastern TN.  A slower movement of the warm front on top of very high PW rates. 

The NAM is still ultra aggressive to the point where it is likely an outlier.  The Euro provides a nice middle of the road solution that is probably the best to follow at this time. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 09:49:30 AM
from what I saw on alabamawx the radar they showed it was pretty much supercellular all over the midsouth....things are all over the place to me some people here say just heavy rain....some people say supercells?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 10:20:23 AM
If it is still rainy/messy here around 1pm I think we just won't have the time to get really unstable , but the wind energy here is tremendous so that could override the lack of instability?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JTM1988 on April 11, 2020, 10:35:09 AM
The thing that makes the GFS less ominous severe weather-wise is what makes it more ominous in flooding for southern and eastern TN.  A slower movement of the warm front on top of very high PW rates. 

The NAM is still ultra aggressive to the point where it is likely an outlier.  The Euro provides a nice middle of the road solution that is probably the best to follow at this time.

Seems like the most recent NAM and HRRR WRF-ARW are pretty similar with the event at the end of the run for TN. Both have the airmass recovering quickly late afternoon and convection initiating over Western MS and moving toward Middle TN.


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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: wmp600 on April 11, 2020, 11:06:24 AM
This morning Channel 2, Nashville, Jared Plushnick said there would be 3 waves. The first in the morning, followed by a mid day/afternoon which would produce the heavy, flooding rains. The third would be the severe again at night anywhere from 8-on which could start with severe cells out in front of a very fast moving line which could have 70+ mph winds. He said there's no doubt there would be severe but the location of the warm front would determine the degree of severity. He also said this all could & probably would change. The projected maps were all ready much different from last nights they were showing.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: ChrisPC on April 11, 2020, 11:11:28 AM
If you have a family or any responsibilities I would suggest staying sober for this.  Very ominous.  This is coming from a borderline alcoholic.  ;D

I was raised in a family that rarely drank, but had it in moderation. Iíd had some whiskey the night of March 2, but was aware enough to get the family in the downstairs closet! Iím definitely going to be aware for this.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 11:11:57 AM
This morning Channel 2, Nashville, Jared Plushnick said there would be 3 waves. The first in the morning, followed by a mid day/afternoon which would produce the heavy, flooding rains. The third would be the severe again at night anywhere from 8-on which could start with severe cells out in front of a very fast moving line which could have 70+ mph winds. He said there's no doubt there would be severe but the location of the warm front would determine the degree of severity. He also said this all could & probably would change. The projected maps were all ready much different from last nights they were showing.

I am seeing the second round possibly being a messy supercell setup south of 40 based on radars I have seen aslo the storm line in the late evening looks to be very broken could be a supercell line ?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: wmp600 on April 11, 2020, 11:16:00 AM
I am seeing the second round possibly being a messy supercell setup south of 40 based on radars I have seen aslo the storm line in the late evening looks to be very broken could be a supercell line ?
From what I remember he really was not as concerned on the 2nd round being overly severe as he was the flooding. The late evening looked to be very broken cells followed by the fast moving line.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Curt on April 11, 2020, 11:19:52 AM
Seems to be 2 threat areas.

1. In the moderate risk area looks like these would be the ďlonerĒ supercells that are surfaced based clearly in the warm sector and can produce the long tracked tornadoes we all fear. SPC does mention uncertainty in this area due to a strong cap (sure looks that way around the Jackson MS area on simulated radar for now) and also risk of elevated convection which would limit higher end tornado potential.

2. As if it was bad enough, the main energy ejects from the Arklatex in early afternoon with an evolving QLCS in central Arkansas. Elevated convection looks to die off in eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee about the same time with a push of instability northeastward across the MS river delta region. There are some off the chart parameters ahead of the line. As we all know, these can produce tornadoes just ahead and within the line just as Kevin mentioned the similarity to the devastating Germantown TN tornado in 1994. Even if not in the moderate area, this set up makes me nervous as weíve seen this play out in TN many times. Another thing to watch is potential triple point. Thereís some crazy deviations in instability over a really small area.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 11:26:43 AM
so many variables tomorrow.....it is really going to have to be a wait and see type of event....potential is very much real though
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2020, 11:36:20 AM
Seems to be 2 threat areas.

1. In the moderate risk area looks like these would be the ďlonerĒ supercells that are surfaced based clearly in the warm sector and can produce the long tracked tornadoes we all fear. SPC does mention uncertainty in this area due to a strong cap (sure looks that way around the Jackson MS area on simulated radar for now) and also risk of elevated convection which would limit higher end tornado potential.

2. As if it was bad enough, the main energy ejects from the Arklatex in early afternoon with an evolving QLCS in central Arkansas. Elevated convection looks to die off in eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee about the same time with a push of instability northeastward across the MS river delta region. There are some off the chart parameters ahead of the line. As we all know, these can produce tornadoes just ahead and within the line just as Kevin mentioned the similarity to the devastating Germantown TN tornado in 1994. Even if not in the moderate area, this set up makes me nervous as weíve seen this play out in TN many times. Another thing to watch is potential triple point. Thereís some crazy deviations in instability over a really small area.
the triple point itself has had me concerned all along with this system , like I eluded to earlier in this thread
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2020, 11:41:26 AM
A cell can get going along that boundary of it , it can produce a significant tornado there if it donít get ripped apart with the impressive wind shear
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 11, 2020, 11:42:51 AM
Seems to be 2 threat areas.

1. In the moderate risk area looks like these would be the ďlonerĒ supercells that are surfaced based clearly in the warm sector and can produce the long tracked tornadoes we all fear. SPC does mention uncertainty in this area due to a strong cap (sure looks that way around the Jackson MS area on simulated radar for now) and also risk of elevated convection which would limit higher end tornado potential.

2. As if it was bad enough, the main energy ejects from the Arklatex in early afternoon with an evolving QLCS in central Arkansas. Elevated convection looks to die off in eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee about the same time with a push of instability northeastward across the MS river delta region. There are some off the chart parameters ahead of the line. As we all know, these can produce tornadoes just ahead and within the line just as Kevin mentioned the similarity to the devastating Germantown TN tornado in 1994. Even if not in the moderate area, this set up makes me nervous as weíve seen this play out in TN many times. Another thing to watch is potential triple point. Thereís some crazy deviations in instability over a really small area.

This is about a good a synopsis as I could give so not much to add at this juncture. Definitely still plenty of uncertainty regarding storm scale specifics. Donít see SPCís next Day 2 changing much from where it is now.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2020, 11:44:42 AM
SPC next day 2 outlook update will be 1230 cst
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2020, 11:50:30 AM
It will be interesting to see if we can get some eml after the mornings convection
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 11, 2020, 12:00:28 PM
Other than maybe putting a 10% tornado and 30% wind hatching in Eastern Arkansas, West TN, Missouri Boothill perhaps into Western KY for the QLCS I don't see much that should change at this point in time.

Still very high-end potential in the Deep South but still also many questions to be answered as well. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 11, 2020, 12:20:45 PM
Agree.  We were in a hatched area yesterday.  Not sure we are now.  I have not looked closely this morning.  System seems to be slowing down.   Definitely many questions about this system still to be answered. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 11, 2020, 12:26:26 PM
The Del Rio to San Antonio, TX corridor is one to watch after midnight tonight. The SPC did add a 10% hatched risk and that area is prime to go as the low-level shear increases in a highly unstable airmass.  What happens down there will probably influence the rest of this event as well.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Susan on April 11, 2020, 12:47:05 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVVyyIGXQAIYXAv?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Susan on April 11, 2020, 12:48:53 PM
Tennessee

(https://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image23.png?a05a55aeb94fa28ca5766ad2b892d630)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 11, 2020, 12:56:57 PM
They did expand the 10% hatched risk a little further north into West/West Middle TN and did add an unhatched 45% wind zone.  If they decide to hatch the 45% wind in any of the Day 1 outlooks it becomes a Moderate Risk.   
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 01:08:08 PM
Agree.  We were in a hatched area yesterday.  Not sure we are now.  I have not looked closely this morning.  System seems to be slowing down.   Definitely many questions about this system still to be answered.

south and west of 40/65 is in hatched tornado risk

I still firmly believe as the final line is moving through it will be a broken line of supercells....alabamwx agrees :) lol
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 01:25:37 PM
did I miss something? I always though 45% wind was moderate risk?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 11, 2020, 01:30:15 PM
did I miss something? I always though 45% wind was moderate risk?

It has to be hatched to be a MDT
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 11, 2020, 01:46:12 PM
State of Alabama has announced tornado shelters take precedence over the Rona
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 11, 2020, 02:30:38 PM
Anyone have any skews for around this area? 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 03:14:09 PM
dixie alley is so interesting....our potential outbreaks are always so dirty and messy to forecast because of early convection ....nothing like the plains and central U.S.

And then again we have seen big PDS situations even when there was no sun warmed air and outbreaks that have started early in the day (april 2006) . Weather is wild
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 03:22:12 PM
either there is too much uncertainty and people aren't talking much, or I am just too obsessed with the weather and need a new hobby :)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 11, 2020, 03:39:14 PM
Corinth/ Tupelo at 9 pm on 18z nam. Not impressive at all just a few miles north.

[attachimg=1]

Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 03:47:18 PM
Corinth/ Tupelo at 9 pm on 18z nam. Not impressive at all just a few miles north.

(Attachment Link)

Hasn't murf been showing the pds situation also?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2020, 04:08:53 PM
Impressive afd from meg this evening ... written by one of the more conservative forecasters be honest
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 11, 2020, 04:15:43 PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
130 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY WE ARE ENJOYING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW SURFACE RH
VALUES. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND THAT IS
ALLOWING WEAK RETURN FLOW TO GET UNDERWAY. THINGS ARE GOING TO
CHANGED DRAMATICALLY DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS A SYSTEM NOW
BREWING JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES IS POISED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE. OVERNIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
FAR TO OUR NORTH AS THE SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
QUICKLY ADVECTS COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE MID STATE. SO LOOK FOR
SHOWERS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT, AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 2, WITH A MODERATE RISK AREA
TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH. WE DO EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY, AND SOME OF THESE MAY SPIN UP INTO SEVERE STORMS, BUT THE
PEAK TIME FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY WON'T OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THE
NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 18Z GIVES US AN SBCAPE OF ZERO,
BUT THE MUCAPE (875 MB) IS MORE THAN 1,000 J/KG. THAT'S BECAUSE
OF A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION THAT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE EVENING.
ALSO, THE 0-3 SRH AT 18Z TOPS 700 M2/S2. EVEN BY 00Z, SOME
REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP ARE STILL EVIDENT, WITH THE
0-3 KM SRH TOPPING 1,100 M2/S2 AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
STRENGTHENS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF
SEVERE CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AFTER 00Z. BY THEN, THE CAP SHOULD BE MOSTLY OR ENTIRELY
GONE, AND OUR INSTABILITY NUMBERS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING
THAT NARROW WINDOW CENTERED AROUND THE FROPA. IN ADDITION, STORM
TOTAL QPF'S REMAIN EXCESSIVE. FROM 06Z SUNDAY UNTIL 12Z MONDAY,
EXPECTED VALUES RANGE FROM MAYBE 1.5" AROUND CLARKSVILLE TO MORE
THAN 3" ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. SO FLASH
FLOODING IS GOING TO BE A THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT.
LOOKING AHEAD, NEXT WEEK PROMISES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL.
WE PROBABLY HAVEN'T EXPERIENCED OUR LAST FROST YET.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: ChrisPC on April 11, 2020, 04:50:50 PM
State of Alabama has announced tornado shelters take precedence over the Rona

Mississippi, too.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 11, 2020, 05:02:19 PM
So possibly we could be put back in a slight risk from reading the OHX discussion.  Seems just a line of severe storms and lots of rain.  Similar to other night.  Which is just fine.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Runman290 on April 11, 2020, 05:10:54 PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
411 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Easter Sunday will feature a significant severe weather outbreak
across much of the deep south, possibly affecting portions of
eastern Tennessee as well. The short term discussion will focus on
this.

A closed low over southern California and the Baja region this
afternoon, will shift east into Texas before transitioning to a
negatively tilted shortwave and lifting northeast across the
Arklamiss, middle Tennessee, and the Ohio River Valley Sunday and
Sunday night. Some phasing with northern stream energy will occur
during the day tomorrow, resulting in low pressure developing over
the Arklatex region before rapidly deepening and shifting north
towards the Great Lakes. Ahead of this system, a warm front
currently resides across the central GOMEX, with surface high
pressure east of the Appalachians. This warm front will surge north
tomorrow as wind fields strengthen across the deep south in response
to rapidly strengthening low pressure to our west, making it into
the TN valley sometime during the evening hours tomorrow. How far
north into the valley, and how quickly it gets there, will likely
play key factors in the amount of severe storms we see in our
forecast area. There remain some notable uncertainties, but if
things develop in favor of severe storms there could be some
significant severe weather in our area. In addition

Regarding severe storms.

By daybreak or very shortly thereafter, elevated showers with some
embedded thunder will be spreading into the forecast area from
the southwest. Showers will continue through much of the day
thereafter, with strong to severe thunderstorms likely to move in
from the southwest during the evening hours as better forcing
arrives and storms become more surface-based. Significant
uncertainties remain with regard to how far north the warm frontal
boundary makes it. Some models move the warm front northward into
the southern TN valley around/after 00z, perhaps as far north
Crossville southeast to Athens area. If this occurs, the southern
plateau as well as the southern TN Valley will be in the warm
sector and there will be a significant tornado risk, with 0-1km
SRH values in excess of 500 m2/s2 and some surface based
instability approaching 1,000 J/kg. On the other end of the
spectrum is the case where the warm front stops in northern
Alabama. In this case, convection in our forecast area would be
more elevated, lending itself to perhaps some limited damaging
wind threat in the case of the strongest storms. At this point
more guidance supports the warm front lifting into the TN valley,
which yields an enhanced damaging winds and perhaps tornado threat
in the south. With regards to hail tomorrow, all of the forecast
soundings seems to show little in the way of deep positive CAPE
profiles, with meager mid level lapse rates to go along with it.
As such, do not think the hail threat is all that great. Certainly
sustained, rotating updrafts may be able to generate some severe
sized hail, but think this will be the exception rather than the
rule.

Discrete warm sector convection in the evening would be quickly
followed by a QLCS convective mode closer to midnight as a squall
line approaches from the west. This will likely present the best
widespread wind threat of the event.

Regarding flash flooding.

This system will pump rich Gulf moisture northward into the southern
Appalachian region for a 12 to 18hr time period beginning during the
morning hours Sunday. This kind of signal in PWAT plumes is
certainly indicative of a flash flooding potential, but given the
areal extent of the higher deterministic rainfall amounts, there
is enough uncertainty to preclude a watch at this time. Currently
have storm total rainfall amounts of 3-4 inches over the central
and southern plateau areas, with 2-3 inch amounts over the
southeastern TN and western NC counties, and a general 1 to 2
inches elsewhere. If these rainfall amounts increase or become
more widespread, a need for a flash flood watch could certainly
arise.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2020, 05:29:15 PM
So possibly we could be put back in a slight risk from reading the OHX discussion.  Seems just a line of severe storms and lots of rain.  Similar to other night.  Which is just fine.
doubt seriously u will go back to a slight risk...
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 11, 2020, 07:14:23 PM
Mods/admins please see my note in the moderator forum on the general mod thread in regards to this system.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: wfrogge on April 11, 2020, 07:22:31 PM
So possibly we could be put back in a slight risk from reading the OHX discussion.  Seems just a line of severe storms and lots of rain.  Similar to other night.  Which is just fine.

Not so sure about that.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: schneitzeit on April 11, 2020, 07:26:46 PM
Is Nashville proper just going to get heavy rain?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 11, 2020, 07:47:25 PM
Its likely going to rain this weekend.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: ryandourius on April 11, 2020, 07:53:39 PM
Its likely going to rain this weekend.

Darn rain! It seems like it is always raining.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: memphishogfan on April 11, 2020, 08:50:03 PM
Can anybody pull a skew off of HRRR for hr 26 for NEA?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 11, 2020, 08:54:34 PM
How reliable is the HRRR? 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 08:57:55 PM
How reliable is the HRRR?

spann the man uses it :)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: RABBITT040 on April 11, 2020, 08:59:04 PM
So sounds like a lot of rain, from what everyone is saying. Maybe just a line of storms like normal?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 09:01:25 PM
So sounds like a lot of rain, from what everyone is saying. Maybe just a line of storms like normal?

Potential for much much more....all depends on morning rains imo
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: wmp600 on April 11, 2020, 09:08:11 PM
Flash flood watch for Nashville & areas east & south.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 11, 2020, 09:11:23 PM
Already a Tornado Warned cell in South-Central TX. The low-level jet I don't think has fully kicked in for that area as well.  I am afraid that part of the lone star state is in for a very long night.  That is also the start of the first round for Dixie Alley as well.  How that round unfolds as it moves into Lousiana tomorrow morning will be a key cog into the mystery of tomorrow's threat. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: memphishogfan on April 11, 2020, 09:21:05 PM
Iím interested to see how moisture flow is affected by the morning convection.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 11, 2020, 09:22:01 PM
The 00Z HRRR shows the South-Central TX party extending throughout the day across LA, MS, AL, perhaps far Southern Middle TN.  A large rain shield saves the day for most of Tennessee.

Remember that is just one solution of one model.  Others show more ominous situations. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 11, 2020, 09:23:08 PM
From the 00z NAM for Murfreesboro at 7pm..  ::shrug::

(https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2020041200_NAM_027_35.92,-86.45_severe_ml.png)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 09:29:39 PM
From the 00z NAM for Murfreesboro at 7pm..  ::shrug::

(https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2020041200_NAM_027_35.92,-86.45_severe_ml.png)

well it had been showing PDS situation so "just" tornado is an improvement :)

It's all about the rain shield and how that develops as is usual around here, if it occurs we could be spared again
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Curt on April 11, 2020, 09:49:39 PM
3k NAM still has a ton of convection through mid morning before tapering off some. It still shows an unstable air mass rushing in from the MS delta just ahead of the QLCS in Arkansas. Itís still fairly ominous albeit not the huge break in convection it showed on earlier runs. Nevertheless the air mass in front of the QLCS is awfully unstable with STP values through the roof for most of southwest Tn into middle.along with CAPE values approaching 3000 in the Memphis metro.

The HRR does pivot some instability into west TN but has a weaker solution on the QLCS. The HRR is not in its wheelhouse at that hour.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2020, 09:56:04 PM
hey curt...stp is off the chart for west of I-65 I noticed that also earlier today....what all goes into that model? I am guessing it cannot take into consideration convection beforehand and things like that...Ö? Because an stp of 12 is astronomical and that would normally warrant moderate or high risk I would think? Just trying to learn :) thanks for you help
Title: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Curt on April 11, 2020, 10:09:49 PM
hey curt...stp is off the chart for west of I-65 I noticed that also earlier today....what all goes into that model? I am guessing it cannot take into consideration convection beforehand and things like that...Ö? Because an stp of 12 is astronomical and that would normally warrant moderate or high risk I would think? Just trying to learn :) thanks for you help
Well STP is just a value of cape x LCL (base cloud height) x helicity x bulk wind difference x convective inhibition (precious crapvection limiting instability)

Any of these things can skew one way or another. Usually crapvection keeps going which isnít expected and can muddy up the instability. If I recall in the big flood in May 2010, we had night with potent energy coming through the trough- but the clouds bases were so high (LCL) it wasnít conducive for tornadoes. Lots of unexpected things can happen- however - a QLCS is a little more predictable. Maybe could see a moderate extended north some but doubt the QLCS would generate anything higher. I would imagine with the shear thereís a good bet of shorter track tornadoes ahead of or in the line.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on April 11, 2020, 10:15:28 PM
When is the nest SPC update?


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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2020, 10:37:39 PM
When is the nest SPC update?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 clock am
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: wfrogge on April 11, 2020, 10:38:38 PM
When is the nest SPC update?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

1 AM

I expect the moderate to move / expand northwest but stay moderate risk for now. Only minor changes
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2020, 10:42:51 PM
1 AM

I expect the moderate to move / expand northwest but stay moderate risk for now. Only minor changes
agree.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2020, 10:47:30 PM
I do think later updates by 1030am update tomorrow ... might see a shade of a high risk out for north central ms over to western edge Alabama
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: memphishogfan on April 12, 2020, 12:26:37 AM
Unreal winds over here in NEA right now.  Feels like Iím in a tropical storm.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: memphishogfan on April 12, 2020, 01:16:34 AM
Looks like SPC kept all the same except the TOR %

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif)

Quote
   Day 1 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   SOUTHEAST AR...NORTHERN LA...MUCH OF MS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AL
   AND FAR NORTHWEST GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely today into tonight,
   with the greatest threat expected from Louisiana through much of the
   Southeast and Tennessee Valley. Strong tornadoes, widespread
   damaging winds, and large hail are all possible.

   ...Synopsis...

   An outbreak of severe storms is expected today across portions of
   the Lower MS Valley into the Southeastern U.S. Intense storms
   capable of widespread damaging winds, large hail, and several strong
   tornadoes are possible with several rounds of storms from late
   morning into the overnight hours.

   ...ArkLaTex into the Southeast...

   Initially, convection is expected to be ongoing across east TX this
   morning, in association with a lead shortwave perturbation. Storm
   mode may be messy with this area of convection as it spreads
   east/northeast across northern LA/southern AR into northern MS and
   the TN Valley vicinity. However, strong warm advection will bring
   upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints as far north as I-20 by late
   morning/middday, as a 50+ kt southwesterly low level jet overspreads
   the lower MS Valley. As a result, any convection that is initially
   elevated above a modest EML should quickly become surface based.
   Additional convection is then expected to develop by early afternoon
   as a weak cap erodes across central and southern MS along a
   pre-frontal trough/confluence band. These storms will likely be more
   classic semi-discrete supercells, and spread eastward into AL by
   late afternoon, and northern GA during the evening. Large, curved
   hodographs and deep, rich boundary layer moisture in intense
   vertical shear will support long-lived supercells capable of
   producing significant tornadoes. Overnight, there is some potential
   for upscale growth into a LEWP/QLCS across eastern AL/GA into the FL
   Panhandle. Damaging wind and mesovortex tornadoes are possible with
   this convective mode as well.

   Further east, strong surface heating and increasing dewpoints will
   result in weak destabilization across the Carolinas in the vicinity
   of a weak surface trough. Upper forcing will remain weaker across
   this area, limiting storm coverage. However, a few cells could
   become intense, capable of a couple of tornadoes and severe
   wind/hail during the afternoon.

   ...Ozarks Vicinity to Lower OH Valley...

   Additional convection is expected to develop in association with the
   main mid/upper shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Plains
   through 00z, then northeastward across the OH Valley overnight.
   Storms are expected to develo across eastern OK during the afternoon
   and spread eastward into southern MO and AR. Some semi-discrete
   cells are possible initially, and will be capable of producing very
   large hail. However, low level shear will become veered and deep
   layer flow more parallel to a surface cold front, resulting in some
   upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. This could result
   in a corridor of intense, damaging winds from northern AR into
   western TN/KY during the evening/overnight hours. In addition to
   damaging wind potential, mesovortex tornadoes also will be possible
   with this activity.

   ...Mid-MS Valley into the Central Appalachians...

   Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon across
   northern MO into southern IA in strong warm advection ahead of the
   surface cold front. Marginally severe hail and wind will accompany
   these storms. During the evening and overnight hours, a surface low
   will continue to deepen as it lift northeast toward the Great Lakes.
   Additional storms will spread across the IN/OH and into portions of
   the central Appalachians posing a threat for locally strong wind
   gusts and isolated hail with the strongest cells.

   ..Leitman.. 04/12/2020
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: memphishogfan on April 12, 2020, 06:28:16 AM
Boy did this system hit the breaks overnight. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on April 12, 2020, 06:44:01 AM
Boy did this system hit the breaks overnight.
Whatís it showing??


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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Runman290 on April 12, 2020, 06:47:47 AM
Looks like SPC kept all the same except the TOR %

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif)

There was a small change to the Enhanced risk area. Some of the Eastern Valley including Knoxville has been downgraded to Slight Risk. That could change again depending on what happens with the uncertainties.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2020, 06:51:20 AM
Boy did this system hit the breaks overnight.
seems to be the trend for while now . Big question  will that allow more time to push warm from n through most part of  the mid south
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 06:53:15 AM
No clarity in how today may unfold. I could see scenarios locally from very little severe wise with the first round shunted south and the second whimpering.... to two full fledged rounds both with significant severe.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2020, 06:54:45 AM
No clarity in how today may unfold. I could see scenarios locally from very little severe wise with the first round shunted south and the second whimpering.... to two full fledged rounds both with significant severe.
yeah pretty confident first round be south of us kev
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2020, 06:57:58 AM
Will say this round of morning convection is really hauling butt to the east fast ...
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2020, 07:04:09 AM
Keep eye on that complex around red river valley... that could be the first problem of shot some significant severe later
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 07:42:07 AM
I'll be honest...looking at model data this morning I'm getting less and less confident on this whole event. I think the threat is hinging on what the complex in Texas does and probably will be the primary event. The triple point is looking more and more like it could be a non-event. But even the "main" event has a ton of uncertainty in storm mode/surface instability as it treks across MS eventually into AL and maybe adjacent TN. Not saying significant tornadoes couldn't still occur today.... but there seem more fail scenarios to me now than the other way around.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 07:52:17 AM
The complex in TX also appears to be shunting more East than modeled...which may hang the warm sector well south of forecast. Again we will see...but I'm increasingly pessimistic on this whole situation - at least for the immediate Mid-South.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2020, 07:54:52 AM
The complex in TX also appears to be shunting more East than modeled...which may hang the warm sector well south of forecast. Again we will see...but I'm increasingly pessimistic on this whole situation - at least for the immediate Mid-South.
yeah if I was chasing today I b little concerned . Looks messy . Thank god im working making triple time today lol. But I be on top of weather best I can
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 07:56:24 AM
SPC has expanded the MDT risk across much of AL into W GA...but has shrunk the Enhanced and tornado probs across the MEG area unsurprisingly. Still keeps significant tor probs across Middle TN
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 12, 2020, 07:58:41 AM
This is just round 1. I'm a bit scared.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 08:09:19 AM
12z HRRR is insistent on evolving a significant looking QLCS across the SE Memphis metro...but it's moving it across the surface stable layer with the surface-based instability actually just SE of the QLCS. Honestly doesn't make sense to me - but probably why SPC is maintaining 45% wind risk just south of the 40 corridor. Still - trends seem to favor this being south of this forecast.

Trying not to completely poo-poo on the threat locally haha...but just getting unconvinced.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on April 12, 2020, 08:15:09 AM
Not to also be left out, there is the potential for a pretty significant wind even as the low pressure traverses TN overnight, with widespread gusts over 50mph probable, especially in the mid state.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 08:17:36 AM
The gradient wind threat is not one to sleep on.  We may have a period of 50MPH wind gusts for a few hours after any storms.  With saturated ground that likely will cause isolated to even scattered power issues and some tree damage. 

The NWS offices in KY are mulling a High Wind Warning.   
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 08:19:05 AM
Yeah I haven't been looking at the gradient wind threat but MEG is also talking about a High Wind Warning....
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 08:23:18 AM
Both the MCS that is expected to move from the Arklatex region to Northern Mississippi and the CAP bust in South-Central Texas last night really cast a huge doubt on this whole situation for a severe weather standpoint. 

The MCS choking off moist unstable air from TN if not even N MS/N AL northward and the CAP bust representing a stronger than expected CAP are good trends for the please can you leave them alone haven't they been through enough already crowd.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on April 12, 2020, 08:29:20 AM
The gradient wind threat is not one to sleep on.  We may have a period of 50MPH wind gusts for a few hours after any storms.  With saturated ground that likely will cause isolated to even scattered power issues and some tree damage. 

The NWS offices in KY are mulling a High Wind Warning.
I'm a little surprised OHX isn't considering an upgrade as well, especially given the latest short-term model output. The HRRR paints a very broad brush of gusts up to near 50kts as well.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 08:59:29 AM
To be sure...the 12z observed soundings from JAN...LIX and SHV are all concerning from a warm sector standpoint. Impressive EML...STRONG veering wind profile...and very steep lapse rates for this region. Conditionally very volatile for any supercells as heating in the PBL tests the EML cap strength.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: cgauxknox on April 12, 2020, 09:47:09 AM
Looking at the forecast winds for Monday I'm wondering if our power outage and other issues might get worse after the storms pass.  With completely saturated ground and then winds in East TN of 20-30 mph on Monday trees that survive the initial storm may suffer damage or fall in the aftermath.  The main line will be the exciting part but I think the actual impacts may be longer than what we're thinking about at the moment.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Curt on April 12, 2020, 09:54:27 AM
3k NAM reversed course completely for Tennessee and is much less threatening. Thereís is little increase in instability late today for western but nothing like it showed last night. Southeast Tennessee has some instability but again- itís nothing over the top ominous. Warm sector just canít make it far enough north with all the storms.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 10:01:18 AM
I'm still interested to see how the QLCS near Shreveport evolves and how far north the threat makes - still insistent in modeling that it makes it to Memphis but we'll see...but I'm really focusing on the Golden Triangle area for the most significant tornado threat today.

Also - the second wave continues to appear to be closer to a non-event locally... HOWEVER the problem is it seems the convective line weakening causes a huge wake low and this is where the strong wind threat is coming from. The HRRR is really going nuts in it's latest run which is likely overdone but focus locally may need to shift to the potential for non-thunderstorm damaging winds late this evening
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 10:09:37 AM
The MCS may locally increase the strong tornado threat for areas in NE Lousiana into Central perhaps Southern Mississippi later on by laying an outflow boundary.

Which provides both a focus of backing winds and a source of lift that may be needed to break the Cap.   
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Curt on April 12, 2020, 10:09:46 AM
I'm still interested to see how the QLCS near Shreveport evolves and how far north the threat makes - still insistent in modeling that it makes it to Memphis but we'll see...but I'm really focusing on the Golden Triangle area for the most significant tornado threat today.

Also - the second wave continues to appear to be closer to a non-event locally... HOWEVER the problem is it seems the convective line weakening causes a huge wake low and this is where the strong wind threat is coming from. The HRRR is really going nuts in it's latest run which is likely overdone but focus locally may need to shift to the potential for non-thunderstorm damaging winds late this evening
HRR has some gusts nearing hurricane force into the Memphis area and northeast Arkansas. Definitely wake low material. Kinda caught me off guard.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 10:11:49 AM
HRR has some gusts nearing hurricane force into the Memphis area and northeast Arkansas. Definitely wake low material. Kinda caught me off guard.

Agreed. Wasn't really following it until I saw MEG say something about a High Wind Warning tonight which certainly raised my eyebrows
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 10:13:22 AM
There is a debris ball within that rotating MCS south of Shreveport, LA. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 10:39:10 AM
PDS Tornado Watch incoming for much of Central MS....may clip Northern MS as well. SE AR/NE LA too.

Feeling pretty safe much of the Memphis metro is going to escape a worthwhile severe threat at this point. Still monitoring. Focus needs to shift to high wind potential tonight....
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2020, 10:39:24 AM
some gravity waves being detected down south of here parts ms  and alabama
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 10:45:37 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0106_overview_big_wou.gif)
Quote
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
     Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Intense bowing line with a history of several tornadoes in
   northwest Louisiana will progress rapidly east-northeast this
   afternoon. Additional semi-discrete suprecells may develop ahead of
   the line as well across parts of northern and central Mississippi.
   Environment is supportive of several tornadoes, some of which will
   likely be strong in addition to potential widespread damaging winds.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 10:48:37 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0106_overview_big_wou.gif)

interesting.....it's as if they expect it to breakout before the heating of the day?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on April 12, 2020, 11:36:24 AM
New Day 1 update- looks like MDT risk has edged up into S Mid TN.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 11:36:37 AM
Bout ready to call it for Memphis severe wise on this one.... 1630 outlook continues trimming it back. MDT for wind edges up into S Middle TN
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 11:37:44 AM
just seems to much clutter for us to be able to get real severe weather....I even think north ms will escape the brunt of this....I would think the only area that can get discrete supercells would be Jackson ms over to demopolis alabama region, of course I could be wrong but everywhere else is dealing with SOAKING rains, how could anything form in that environment?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: justinmundie on April 12, 2020, 11:39:46 AM
just seems to much clutter for us to be able to get real severe weather....I even think north ms will escape the brunt of this....I would think the only area that can get discrete supercells would be Jackson ms over to demopolis alabama region, of course I could be wrong but everywhere else is dealing with SOAKING rains, how could anything form in that environment?

It won't if the warm front doesn't come through your area.

Bham is about to go from 65/59 to 78/71 real quick.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: VandyMachine on April 12, 2020, 11:40:57 AM
East of I65 and south of 40 IMO.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 11:41:54 AM
It won't if the warm front doesn't come through your area.

Bham is about to go from 65/59 to 78/71 real quick.

Even if it did, there is so much clutter here I don't see how anything "major" could occur ?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on April 12, 2020, 11:45:25 AM
Most of Mid TN is in a 10% hatched Tornado risk in new update. Straight line winds are the greatest risk (as mentioned).
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 12, 2020, 11:46:06 AM
Yazoo City already about to be under the gun. I could've put money down on that one.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 11:46:46 AM
Tornado Emergency for Monroe LA. ULM radar showing intense TDS on south side of town
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Curt on April 12, 2020, 11:48:37 AM
Bout ready to call it for Memphis severe wise on this one.... 1630 outlook continues trimming it back. MDT for wind edges up into S Middle TN
I agree. Warm sector just wasnít allowed to progress up this far north today with all the convection.

On another note, MEG might want to issue that high wind warning. HRR actually is increasing threat of about a 2 hour period of wind gusts of 60mph and isolated up to 80mph tonight.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 11:50:54 AM
I agree. Warm sector just wasnít allowed to progress up this far north today with all the convection.

On another note, MEG might want to issue that high wind warning. HRR actually is increasing threat of about a 2 hour period of wind gusts of 60mph and isolated up to 80mph tonight.

Per SPC ???? I don't see how? but that's why I am sitting on a couch and not at the nwsÖ.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS, THE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL OF WHICH MAY OCCUR FROM NORTHEAST LA THROUGH
NORTH-CENTRAL MS INTO NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 11:51:51 AM
Per SPC ???? I don't see how? but that's why I am sitting on a couch and not at the nwsÖ.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS, THE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL OF WHICH MAY OCCUR FROM NORTHEAST LA THROUGH
NORTH-CENTRAL MS INTO NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

Southern Middle TN has more time to destabilize. I still think it's up in the air...but more possble
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2020, 11:54:09 AM
I agree. Warm sector just wasnít allowed to progress up this far north today with all the convection.

On another note, MEG might want to issue that high wind warning. HRR actually is increasing threat of about a 2 hour period of wind gusts of 60mph and isolated up to 80mph tonight.
at work haven't time pull models up  whats the best two hour frame for those winds curt or kevin   hope get home get my patio furniture up lol
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 11:54:51 AM
Southern Middle TN has more time to destabilize. I still think it's up in the air...but more possble

Well I am in southern mid tn so I will watch....but that radar is nothing but solid rain coming for hours and hours....won't see a bit of sun today....but they know more than me
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: TNHunter on April 12, 2020, 11:55:31 AM
Had a feeling most of TN would escape the major severe threat.  Nearing mid month already hopefully weíll go non severe the next couple weeks and be out of our main severe season!
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 11:55:48 AM
at work haven't time pull models up  whats the best two hour frame for those winds curt or kevin   hope get home get my patio furniture up lol

Probably 11 PM to 2 AM for Jackson....couple hours earlier for MEM metro. 15z HRRR *has* to be overdone...I sure hope.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2020, 11:56:57 AM
Probably 11 PM to 2 AM for Jackson....couple hours earlier for MEM metro. 15z HRRR *has* to be overdone...I sure hope.
thanks man, I didn't want my furniture come sliding through my big bay windows in my dinning room lol
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Curt on April 12, 2020, 11:57:01 AM
Per SPC ???? I don't see how? but that's why I am sitting on a couch and not at the nwsÖ.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS, THE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL OF WHICH MAY OCCUR FROM NORTHEAST LA THROUGH
NORTH-CENTRAL MS INTO NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
Iím referring to Memphis area. Best instability state wide is on the far southern border later this afternoon. Overall thatís a huge NAM fail from yesterdayís forecasts in my area.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: TNHunter on April 12, 2020, 11:58:15 AM
Probably 11 PM to 2 AM for Jackson....couple hours earlier for MEM metro. 15z HRRR *has* to be overdone...I sure hope.

Iíd say way over done. Highly surprised if we see 60-80 mph gusts for 2 hours
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 11:59:23 AM
Monroe LA appears to have taken a very serious hit. Early reports of dozens of homes damaged/destroyed
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Drifter49 on April 12, 2020, 12:00:31 PM
56 degrees currently in Paris, hopefully it won't come up much. Just going to be ready for the high winds tonight.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 12:05:35 PM
MDT risk is up into Southern Middle TN.  10% hatched, 45% wind hatched.  The 10% tornado hatched is a little bit further north into Middle TN I believe as well. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: marjl21 on April 12, 2020, 12:05:53 PM
Is the HRRR basically developing a sting jet? Canít say I remember anything like that around here.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 12:09:01 PM
Iím referring to Memphis area. Best instability state wide is on the far southern border later this afternoon. Overall thatís a huge NAM fail from yesterdayís forecasts in my area.

oh I know curt it was just a question lol...I don't see how any of north ms or mid tn gets unstable, am I missing something...can you get really unstable when it is raining all day
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 12, 2020, 12:11:18 PM
Warm front is going thru Birmingham now.  Seems to be moving quickly.  First round of rain is just about thru.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 12:12:44 PM
tell you what....east central ms and central bama looks to have 2-3 hours of rain free air....could get ugly there....discrete supercells idk? but embedded supercells I could see
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 12, 2020, 12:13:40 PM
oh I know curt it was just a question lol...I don't see how any of north ms or mid tn gets unstable, am I missing something...can you get really unstable when it is raining all day
Remember those rain boundaries can fuel.  Also being close to the warm front on the south side of it can also increase dynamics.  They supercells can ride along it.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 12, 2020, 12:16:24 PM
tell you what....east central ms and central bama looks to have 2-3 hours of rain free air....could get ugly there....discrete supercells idk? but embedded supercells I could see
I remember when the tornado hit Murfreesboro.  It was chilly and seemed no way severe wx would happen.  Then a couple hours later an EF3 I watched form hit town.  It does not take much for environment to change quickly.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 12:17:21 PM
Remember those rain boundaries can fuel.  Also being close to the warm front on the south side of it can also increase dynamics.  They supercells can ride along it.

Y'all are helping me learn a lot :). Wouldn't you need some sort of rain free time for heating for that to come into play?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on April 12, 2020, 12:21:41 PM
From the ďfeels likeĒ perspective right now, it is chilly and wet here and doesnít ďfeelĒ like a severe day. I know that can change quickly with a warm sector intrusion.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 12:24:57 PM
Adjusted for storm motion/surface wind...the dervided hodograph from Jackson, MS VAD Wind Profile is really ominous. Whether the continued QLCS threat or from sustained supercells that can establish themselves in the warm sector...the Central MS threat is on the high end in the coming hours

(http://autumnsky.us/vad/imgs/5831a32c568c40b3af43409bc6ccc0e6.png)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 12:32:13 PM
Not saying the HRRR can't be right with the wind threat tonight locally...but worth pointing out how horrible it has handled this QLCS evolution. So while worth looking at for guidance...have to be cautious with the specific details going hours out at this moment...
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 12, 2020, 12:34:43 PM
The NAM continues to be much more ominous than the HRRR for southern middle. We shall see.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 12:39:44 PM
Adjusted for storm motion/surface wind...the dervided hodograph from Jackson, MS VAD Wind Profile is really ominous. Whether the continued QLCS threat or from sustained supercells that can establish themselves in the warm sector...the Central MS threat is on the high end in the coming hours

(http://autumnsky.us/vad/imgs/5831a32c568c40b3af43409bc6ccc0e6.png)

I have family just south of b-ham....I can see next outlook east ms and central bama under high risk, down that way is definitely the bulls eye and really has been all along
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 12:44:18 PM
is that the warm front from around oxford ms through north central alabama moving north?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Uncle Nasty on April 12, 2020, 12:56:05 PM
Well I am in southern mid tn so I will watch....but that radar is nothing but solid rain coming for hours and hours....won't see a bit of sun today....but they know more than me
The weather in the Chattanooga area has been great today! We had a quick 1 minute shower early this morning but that's been all. Sun is popping in and out. Great day for golf if the courses weren't closed due to Covid-19.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Susan on April 12, 2020, 01:08:35 PM
I've missed your input. 

Adjusted for storm motion/surface wind...the dervided hodograph from Jackson, MS VAD Wind Profile is really ominous. Whether the continued QLCS threat or from sustained supercells that can establish themselves in the warm sector...the Central MS threat is on the high end in the coming hours

(http://autumnsky.us/vad/imgs/5831a32c568c40b3af43409bc6ccc0e6.png)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 12, 2020, 01:14:30 PM
Latest GFS dumps nearly 6Ē of rain on KCHA tonight. We may escape a PDS tornado situation, but it looks like a PDS flash flooding situation to me.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 01:20:00 PM
is that the warm front from around oxford ms through north central alabama moving north?

The warm front is the southern edge of the precip field.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 01:22:50 PM
Things in Central MS are starting to break away from a QLCS mode into more of a clustered mode.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 12, 2020, 01:28:12 PM
Adjusted for storm motion/surface wind...the dervided hodograph from Jackson, MS VAD Wind Profile is really ominous. Whether the continued QLCS threat or from sustained supercells that can establish themselves in the warm sector...the Central MS threat is on the high end in the coming hours

(http://autumnsky.us/vad/imgs/5831a32c568c40b3af43409bc6ccc0e6.png)

Yikes.  I for one am happy to be on the north end of the state right now.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 01:38:31 PM
The warm front is the southern edge of the precip field.

so it is a long way from being in tn yet
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 01:44:03 PM
well looks like this messy rain will be out of s/w middle Tennessee around 3:30 or 4pm it looks like so we shall see if anything can destabilize after that I guess
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 12, 2020, 01:48:28 PM
Once this current rain sheild passes Memphis, it will be put up or shut up time in the next 3 - 4 hours.  I don't think we'll see much severe wise, but I have been wrong before. The non-convective wind threat will also be a wildcard and will start picking up behind the rain.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on April 12, 2020, 01:55:35 PM
You can see the warm front is just now getting up to middle AL, with a notable SSE bend in the front itself between Selma(SEM) & Prattville(IA9), and then it bends nearly due east into GA and then bends northeast in GA, with mid-60s DPs into Macon and Augusta. I personally see that as potential remnants of CAD from the last day or so.
(https://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/states/al.sfc.gif)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Susan on April 12, 2020, 02:05:30 PM
I don't think this image has been posted.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVbKn4eXgAAMvF6?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 02:09:57 PM
I don't think this image has been posted.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVbKn4eXgAAMvF6?format=jpg&name=small)

That particular tornado watch zone happens a lot where only tn/al border counties get watched and the threat usually stays south of the tn river, they include tn counties just in case something sneaks into those border towns like Loretto and Ardmore tn usually

I for one would be stunned if anything went severe north of Tupelo ms to Cullman AL in this round of storms.... currently 250 cape is just now passing birmingham
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 12, 2020, 02:26:03 PM
That particular tornado watch zone happens a lot where only tn/al border counties get watched and the threat usually stays south of the tn river, they include tn counties just in case something sneaks into those border towns like Loretto and Ardmore tn usually

I for one would be stunned if anything went severe north of Tupelo ms to Cullman AL in this round of storms.... currently 250 cape is just now passing birmingham
Still early.  Several hours till the threat is over and the warm front is moving quickly north.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 12, 2020, 02:31:04 PM
Interesting Tweet talking about why the cap to the south may be so stubborn today.  Very speculative but interesting none the less.

https://twitter.com/ryans_wx/status/1249411273412030466?s=20 (https://twitter.com/ryans_wx/status/1249411273412030466?s=20)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Curt on April 12, 2020, 02:40:58 PM
That squall line in MS so far is outrunning the instability just north of the warm front. Hope it stays that way. Convection has broken through the cap all around Jackson MS but doesnít look severe yet.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 12, 2020, 02:43:06 PM
Memphis may have sunshine in another hour or two. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on April 12, 2020, 02:48:39 PM
The rain shield over most of the state is so huge and overpowering now, I just donít see any way for a breakup and enough recovery of instability to create much of a threat for TN beyond heavy rain. Sounds like the wind threat maybe something to keep an eye on for later.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 12, 2020, 02:48:55 PM
40+ mph none convective gusts already being reported in central AR.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 02:53:01 PM
The rain shield over most of the state is so huge and overpowering now, I just donít see any way for a breakup and enough recovery of instability to create much of a threat for TN beyond heavy rain. Sounds like the wind threat maybe something to keep an eye on for later.

agreed even north ms and north bama might not get unstable
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 02:58:01 PM
is there supposed to be redevelopment of cells in west Mississippi and east ark? is that why counties there are still under the pds watch in mississippi? cause the storm line is past those areas
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 12, 2020, 03:01:03 PM
is there supposed to be redevelopment of cells in west Mississippi and east ark? is that why counties there are still under the pds watch in mississippi? cause the storm line is past those areas

If there is recovery of the atmosphere yes.  I am already getting sun peaking out here just south of Memphis.  Keep in mind the cold front is still in eastern OK.
There is a ton of uncertainty though, at least for the south western side of the state.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 03:10:28 PM
If there is recovery of the atmosphere yes.  I am already getting sun peaking out here just south of Memphis.  Keep in mind the cold front is still in eastern OK.
There is a ton of uncertainty though, at least for the south western side of the state.

GotchaÖ.cause for the moment the pds watch has not panned out at all "for now"
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 12, 2020, 03:13:53 PM
GotchaÖ.cause for the moment the pds watch has not panned out at all "for now"

The cap has been more stubborn to our south and none of the convection is transitioning to surface based.  It looks to have finally broke over the past 30 mins or so as Curt mentioned.  The storm mode has transitioned to linear now so it maybe a bust, but still to early to call especially the further east you go.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: acelam90 on April 12, 2020, 03:16:48 PM
Rain has stopped in Lakeland and sun is starting to peek out. Not sure if the rain has worked over things too much here if it's going to turn things bumpy later tonight.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 12, 2020, 03:34:33 PM
Tornado threat is about done for the western side of the state.  Might still get some wind/hail with the cold front passage later tonight, especially if things can warm some before sundown and raise dewpoints.  Threat to the south is going it be debated over next week.  Interesting unexpected warming of the cap combined with widespread elevated convection has really limited things thus far, but keep in mind its not over yet.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: InMemphis on April 12, 2020, 03:35:17 PM
Memphis is now in a 2% tornado risk. That's a change from that 10% hatched. I'm interested in seeing how the wind situation will play out tonight.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Susan on April 12, 2020, 03:38:18 PM
Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
204 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers have been pounding Middle Tennessee all morning, and a
line of enhanced echoes is currently making its way northward
across the mid state owing a weak surface trough or a meso-low
trying to spin off. The primary center of low pressure is still
situated near the Ozarks, and is forecast to move into the Ohio
Valley by 06Z while deepening to 991-993 mb. This will contribute
to a strong pressure gradient over Middle Tennessee for several
hours later this afternoon and tonight, hence the Wind Advisory.
Meanwhile, the environment across Middle Tennessee remains capped,
especially across the cooler northern zones. The NAM12 forecast
sounding for BNA valid at 21Z shows a SBCAPE of 0, but the MUCAPE
(900 mb) is nearly 500 J/Kg. The expected 0-3 SRH at the same
time is a whopping 1,160 m2/s2. We never really do get any SBCAPE
this far north, but the cap does erode somewhat as the surface
front approaches, and MUCAPE values should increase to around
1,000 J/kg, so the lift provided by the cold front should be able
to tap into that elevated instability. When combined with the
enormous shear values, don`t see any need to deviate from the
current severe weather messaging of damaging straight-line winds
and isolated tornadoes, especially south of I-40. Actual fropa
should occur between maybe 02Z and 07Z, with sharp subsidence
right behind the front. The surface low passes close enough to
Middle Tennessee that we will likely experience a swath of wrap-
around moisture toward morning and maybe some lingering showers
along the Cumberland Plateau Monday morning. Looking ahead, next
week looks to be much cooler than normal with only nominal chances
of rain. We could see areas of frost as late as Thursday morning.
Expect a pleasant warming trend by next weekend. After tonight,
we don`t see any severe weather risk at least through Saturday.

&&

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
336 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Updated suite of forecast products to mention Tornado Watch Number
109 for Wayne, Lawrence, and Giles Counties until 10 PM CDT.
Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction
grids. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

&&
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 12, 2020, 03:54:32 PM
Reed Timmer on tornado on the ground on his live feed in Mississippi
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: RABBITT040 on April 12, 2020, 03:55:15 PM
Busted  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on April 12, 2020, 03:56:25 PM
Huge debris signature on the south MS storm, current active TOR Emergency for what is thankfully an incredibly rural part of the state.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 03:58:25 PM
That is a rural part of MS but if it continues on its path it will eventually move into Laurel, MS.   
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 04:17:55 PM
Busted  ::blowtorch::

As far as being a PDS situation for that big of a watch I agree it's a bust it was evident the overshot it as soon as they issued that pds watch....but still some heavy stuff going on down there in the very southern end and even stuff firing up in central Louisiana headed north fast....guess we have to watch for development
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 12, 2020, 04:26:42 PM
That tornado in south Mississippi is an absolute monster on radar.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 04:29:50 PM
It crushed Bassfield, MS with a debris ball after it passed over.  If it holds together then Laurel, MS is in trouble.   
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on April 12, 2020, 04:30:30 PM
As far as being a PDS situation for that big of a watch I agree it's a bust it was evident the overshot it as soon as they issued that pds watch....but still some heavy stuff going on down there in the very southern end and even stuff firing up in central Louisiana headed north fast....guess we have to watch for development
No, it was not evident or else they wouldn't have put in the PDS wording. The cap was a little stronger than expected and the morning squall complex moved about 2 hours quicker.

That said, the main show is just starting in southern MS, so this is far from over and being a bust.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Lcwthrnut on April 12, 2020, 04:34:01 PM
Praying for this town. They just got demolished. extremely dangerous tornado.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 12, 2020, 04:37:09 PM
Busted  ::blowtorch::
Very premature comment.  Those storms erupting in Miss mean business.  From central AL to Northern AL to possibly Southern Mid TN should watch them closely.  Some of those could be long trackers.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 12, 2020, 04:43:45 PM
Are the storms in eastern OK associated with the cold front? If so, there is a long way to go. Iím guessing the intensity of the system is going to encourage more of a nocturnal threat than we would usually see this time of year.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 04:45:25 PM
Quote
SUMMARY...BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA, A VIOLENT 
TORNADO WITH POTENTIAL PEAK WINDS OF 170 TO 205 MPH (EF4-EF5) IS 
LIKELY ONGOING. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONALLY RARE EVENT. 
 
DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE SUPERCELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, CHARACTERIZED 
BY 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 400 M2/S2 AND MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG PER LATEST 
MESOANALYSIS DATA. RECENT RADAR SIGNATURES FROM KLIX AS OF 2112Z 
REVEAL AN INTENSE SUPERCELL CHARACTERIZED BY A 0.4 DEGREE ROTATIONAL 
VELOCITY OF AT LEAST 70 KT. A TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE HAS ALSO 
BEEN NOTED ON RECENT RADAR SCANS. THESE SIGNATURES ARE OCCURRING IN 
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STP GREATER THAN 7. PREVIOUS 
SIGNATURES WITHIN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTS PRODUCED 
TORNADO-DAMAGE-ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS FROM 170 TO 205 MPH AND 
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A LIKELY VIOLENT TORNADO. A LONG-TRACK 
TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BASED ON THE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY 
DURATION AND THE STORM MOVING WITHIN A FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM 
ENVIRONMENT. 

Put this MCD in the history books
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: byrdymush on April 12, 2020, 04:46:23 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200412/7251b698274c53d8498d938c391706f9.jpg)

Poor Bassfield!


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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 04:47:30 PM
The radar imagery out of SE MS is jaw dropping...astonishing...fascinating...and tragic
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 12, 2020, 04:47:46 PM
There is a another tornado with debris signature in Mississippi headed on same path as the first one .
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 04:49:59 PM
Soso, Sandersville, and Prentiss are all in trouble in Southern Mississippi.  A few short term models suggest these could track well into Central/Southern Alabama as well. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 04:50:36 PM
wow at those two cells in extreme south mississippi
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: JKT1987 on April 12, 2020, 04:54:15 PM
Based on radar data ALONE .... this storm in SE MS is in the upper echelon of all-time tornado producers. Waiting more concrete damage reports but fully expecting devastation for any of the small towns that are in the direct path of this....
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: cgauxknox on April 12, 2020, 04:54:35 PM
These southern MS storms seem to be lining up and tracking over the same areas. Terrifying.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 12, 2020, 04:59:05 PM
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Williamson, Rutherford, Southern Davidson, Southern Wilson.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 05:02:20 PM
Based on radar data ALONE .... this storm in SE MS is in the upper echelon of all-time tornado producers. Waiting more concrete damage reports but fully expecting devastation for any of the small towns that are in the direct path of this....

have they posted any pics or video yet....it looks to be a tremendous tornado :(
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 12, 2020, 06:11:54 PM
Maybe it's just me but that warm front just doesn't seem to be lifting further north. That changes quite a bit. Also, the time frame for the line in Arkansas looks like it won't make it into Middle TN until after midnight for sure.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 12, 2020, 06:13:15 PM
Some jaw dropping radar products from Twitter from the Tornadoes in southern MS:

(https://i.imgur.com/dLjwoaP.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/Ro6mEnT.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/nmaq9Z3.jpg)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: ryandourius on April 12, 2020, 06:13:54 PM
New Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Arkansas.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 12, 2020, 06:14:08 PM
Moving at 45ish eastward, and Ft Smith is 450mi from Nashville... Unless it picks up steam, it won't be here until tomorrow morning.

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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 06:19:53 PM
Some jaw dropping radar products from Twitter from the Tornadoes in southern MS:

(https://i.imgur.com/dLjwoaP.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/Ro6mEnT.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/nmaq9Z3.jpg)

the amount of debris flowing out of that is incredible!
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 12, 2020, 06:41:32 PM
I see 2 different signatures in NE Al currently a few miles apart. If that cell holds it will be making it's way into the southside of Chatt Metro within the next hour.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 06:44:01 PM
so for mid tn, is there any potential at all for development ahead of the squall...I know some models showed that earlier today that scattered development might show up around 9-10 pm? I think our environment might have just been raked over the coals?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 06:44:34 PM
That little cluster in NE AL is very impressive for how long it has lived.  It isn't really a QLCS in a traditional sense and it really isn't a supercell but it has been very impressive it started in East Texas and is now moving into Georgia.   
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: byrdymush on April 12, 2020, 06:46:14 PM
That little cluster in NE AL is very impressive for how long it has lived.  It isn't really a QLCS in a traditional sense and it really isn't a supercell but it has been very impressive it started in East Texas and is now moving into Georgia.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200412/50eab0a75860047026a338f8d3526ec2.jpg)
What exactly are we looking at here?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: RobD on April 12, 2020, 07:11:52 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200412/7251b698274c53d8498d938c391706f9.jpg)

Poor Bassfield!


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My oldest used to live in Hattiesburg & work in Monticello; drove through Bassfield every day. Hoping it missed most of the town.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: ryandourius on April 12, 2020, 07:15:30 PM
https://youtu.be/Mv29WALPJBU

https://youtu.be/loBFIZUPR0c

Only videos I could find right now. Some of the language in the first video is bad, but it is a basic human reaction.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: marjl21 on April 12, 2020, 07:43:18 PM
6 fatalities so far in MS  :'(

Should we expect anything here from that line in AR?  Looks like most of the models have it weakening/falling apart.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 12, 2020, 07:52:01 PM
The storm on the south side of Dalton heading towards Chatsworth bears watching. Pretty strong rotation. We actually have broad rotation showing on velocity overhead in eastern Hamilton county right now, but it seems all it is serving to do is produce absolutely torrential rainfall. These are some of the heaviest rain rates Iíve seen outside of some freak summer storms.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 07:52:20 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0369.html

The Duracell Cluster may make it all the way into far SE TN and into North Carolina.  This cluster of storms began back in NE Texas. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: c_phillips on April 12, 2020, 08:40:42 PM
Looks like a TDS NE of Tuscaloosa.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2020, 08:41:25 PM
looks like a tornado went through Tuscaloosa yet again :(
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 12, 2020, 09:11:55 PM
Watching cell currently that looks suspicious heading into Chatt Metro. Not warned currently but that may change as it heads toward Red Bank/Hixson/Middle Valley.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 12, 2020, 09:12:26 PM
That bowed segment in Eastern AR looks mean and on the up and up.  If it continues this trend Memphis and Desoto County may get wide spread 70-80 mph winds.  Certainly worth keeping and eye on as it gets closer.

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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2020, 09:28:09 PM
That bowed segment in Eastern AR looks mean and on the up and up.  If it continues this trend Memphis and Desoto County may get wide spread 70-80 mph winds.  Certainly worth keeping and eye on as it gets closer.

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seems like the line trying to strengthen further north also
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 12, 2020, 09:53:59 PM
Heads up Memphis Incoming 70 mph winds.

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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2020, 09:58:13 PM
Confirmed tornado near Trenton, GA may become a future problem for far SE TN especially those east / southeast of Chattanooga. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: byrdymush on April 12, 2020, 10:00:24 PM
Confirmed tornado near Trenton, GA may become a future problem for far SE TN especially those east / southeast of Chattanooga.
Been watching it. Have friends east of Chatt (East Brainerd/Ooletwah), family west of Chatt (Jasper/New Hope) and in NE AL. And Iím north of Memphis.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: ryandourius on April 12, 2020, 10:01:54 PM
New Severe Thunderstorm Watch for West TN 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2020, 10:14:04 PM
New Severe Thunderstorm Watch for West TN
yeah that line starting to turn up head ne now  got some serious wind in it
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2020, 10:19:51 PM
Hrrr May be on to something after all ...
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Runman290 on April 12, 2020, 10:20:46 PM
There was a confirmed tornado near Benton, which is in Polk County.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 12, 2020, 10:32:11 PM
Couplet passed just barely north of me. Power is out. It was very loud. No obvious damage but the center of the rotation was just to my north by about a mile.
Edit: touchdown confirmed. Still trying to get in touch with family. Was described in the warning text as large and extremely dangerous.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on April 12, 2020, 10:33:35 PM
Ooltewah just took a direct hit.  TDS rolled right through downtown.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on April 12, 2020, 10:34:22 PM
Couplet passed just barely north of me. Power is out. It was very loud. No obvious damage but the center of the rotation was just to my north by about a mile.

Glad you escaped.  Looked like a monster on radar.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: byrdymush on April 12, 2020, 10:37:14 PM
Ooltewah just took a direct hit.  TDS rolled right through downtown.
Was chatting with my friend when the tornado warning came out. I told her to take shelter. Sheís just south of Ooltewah. Waiting to hear from her...
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Uncle Nasty on April 12, 2020, 10:40:28 PM
Under the stairs at our house in a closet in Ooltewah Power was out even with underground utilities. Wind is still howling.

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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Uncle Nasty on April 12, 2020, 10:41:16 PM
Power came in a few minutes ago. Weather alarm going batshit crazy


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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on April 12, 2020, 10:41:30 PM
Probable TOG heading toward Cleveland...
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 12, 2020, 10:47:55 PM
Barely missed my Aunt's house in East Brainerd. They definitely have damage around the house from what they can see without power. Barely missed my friend's house in East Brainerd also.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Beth on April 12, 2020, 10:49:55 PM
Temp has been steadily climbing here most of the evening. Was at 57 at 6. Now up to 63.  The storms to the west look nasty. 😳
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 12, 2020, 10:50:35 PM
Couplet passed just barely north of me. Power is out. It was very loud. No obvious damage but the center of the rotation was just to my north by about a mile.
Edit: touchdown confirmed. Still trying to get in touch with family. Was described in the warning text as large and extremely dangerous.

Good to hear from you. You were one of the first people I thought of.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 12, 2020, 10:54:17 PM
My tenants report that the porch roof has blown off my old house.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 12, 2020, 11:42:23 PM
I tried to drive to my rental house, but there is too much damage. Itís a mess out there. All my close family are safe but there are multiple reports of entrapments. I saw at least 1 large structure fire from a distance.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: byrdymush on April 12, 2020, 11:49:43 PM
I tried to drive to my rental house, but there is too much damage. Itís a mess out there. All my close family are safe but there are multiple reports of entrapments. I saw at least 1 large structure fire from a distance.
I finally heard from my friend and theyíre okay. She lives east of East Brainerd and south of Ooltewah. Danger zone! She had posted a video about an hour before documenting the flooding around her house. I told her I was watching a cell trying to become something in Trenton. Then it got tornado warned. I told her I was hoping itíd stay south of Chatt (it did miss the city). Then it marched on up and, yeah. I donít like the feeling of helplessness watching it all unfold via radar and being so far away.

They donít have power. Said it sounded awful. I imagine sheís trying to keep all the kids calm and same.

Someone posted a video to Facebook of Main Street in Kimball TN and it looked like a full-blown river.


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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 13, 2020, 12:52:48 AM
I tried to drive to my rental house, but there is too much damage. Itís a mess out there. All my close family are safe but there are multiple reports of entrapments. I saw at least 1 large structure fire from a distance.
Glad you are ok sir.  If there is anything I can do or help in any way please let me know
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Uncle Nasty on April 13, 2020, 12:59:41 AM
Someone sent me this video. Someone on the scene at Shallowford Rd and Gunbarrel Rd very close to Hamilton Place Mall  and i75.



https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10222029330591765&id=1516270977



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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on April 13, 2020, 01:06:13 AM
Prayers and thoughts for those that were hit by the tornado towards Chatty.  Not a good year for TN.  Way too many tornadoes and deaths and damage this year.  Dealing with the virus only makes this worse.  My brother just this past week started getting his house rebuilt. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: ryandourius on April 13, 2020, 01:29:53 AM
Large and dangerous tornado on the ground NW of Yatesville, GA.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: CannedHeat on April 13, 2020, 02:04:15 AM
Chattanooga area/Hamilton county wasnít even under a tornado watch when they issued the tornado emergency.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 13, 2020, 04:49:36 AM
Prayers and thoughts for those that were hit by the tornado towards Chatty.  Not a good year for TN.  Way too many tornadoes and deaths and damage this year.  Dealing with the virus only makes this worse.  My brother just this past week started getting his house rebuilt.
just think. We still got.  Good 6 weeks in this pattern after this cooler few days this week . We go back active pattern ensembles suggest ...
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: ryandourius on April 13, 2020, 05:24:45 AM
Confirmed large tornado south of Hampton, SC. Debris ball evident on radar.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: ryandourius on April 13, 2020, 05:29:46 AM
Still impressive! Very pronounced.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: ryandourius on April 13, 2020, 06:02:08 AM
This is still on the ground and it just directly hit Walterboro, SC.

Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 13, 2020, 06:43:09 AM
Quote
Urgent - immediate broadcast requested
Evacuation Immediate
Tennessee emergency management Agency
Relayed by National Weather Service Morristown TN
544 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

The following message is transmitted at the request of the Tennessee emergency management Agency and Unicoi emergency manager.

Due to dangerous flooding, evacuate areas near the Temple Hill area from the mouth of the upper Higgins Creek northward to Bowman road, and the lower Section of Rice Creek.

Major flooding occurring as well across East TN. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 13, 2020, 07:18:21 AM
The area with damage in East Brainerd is very wide. Chattanooga Fire dept sent out a tweet. The area marked on the map is nearly a mile wide. Canít be sure if all of that is tornado related, but itís pretty shocking for something that spun up so quickly.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: byrdymush on April 13, 2020, 07:20:44 AM
The area with damage in East Brainerd is very wide. Chattanooga Fire dept sent out a tweet. The area marked on the map is nearly a mile wide. Canít be sure if all of that is tornado related, but itís pretty shocking for something that spun up so quickly.
https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2020/apr/13/severe-thunderstorms-cause-flooding-damage-hamilton-county-and-across-southeast-sunday/520501/

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200413/7869e0df18e3655b991cb0b171f27b53.jpg)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 13, 2020, 08:11:02 AM
Yesterday and last night featured the most tornado warnings issued by the NWS across the country since 3/2/12. 

Sadly hearing at least 18 fatalities occurred across Arkansas, Mississippi, and Georgia. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 13, 2020, 11:08:34 AM
Major damage and fatalities throughout South Carolina. 

This is why we have to take all threats seriously even those involving QLCS's.

There was quite a bit of wind damage yesterday with the one in Arkansas as well. 
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Uncle Nasty on April 13, 2020, 01:12:41 PM
Aerial photos of the E. Brainerd area.


https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10221024215013644&id=1190480053

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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: ryandourius on April 13, 2020, 01:36:53 PM
Aerial photos of the E. Brainerd area.


https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10221024215013644&id=1190480053

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Wow! It is amazing how quick that storm went from 0 to 60. Praying for all of those affected and with homes that were damaged. Tonight will be cold. I hope they can all stay warm and safe.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on April 13, 2020, 01:41:26 PM
Word is- the Chattanooga area tornado is being rated EF-3. I assume that may still be preliminary.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 13, 2020, 01:58:35 PM
I was finally able to make it over to my rental property. Somehow it is the only house on the street without significant roof damage. Only an aluminum deck awning was torn off. In worse news, all of the fences collapsed and every single tree is knocked over. The main path of the tornado missed the house by about 100 yards. The entire landscape behind the house has been changed. It was jaw dropping.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: byrdymush on April 13, 2020, 04:51:40 PM
Word is- the Chattanooga area tornado is being rated EF-3. I assume that may still be preliminary.
https://newschannel9.com/news/local/severe-weather-causes-major-local-damage-late-sunday-night

And sadly, multiple fatalities as well.
No tornado watch. An urgent tornado warning late on a Sunday evening that didnít give anyone much time to wake up/react/get to safety. Why would they have not been under a watch? Why werenít they warned earlier? A few of us were watching it down before it was warned in Trenton GA! I told my friend to watch that one - it looked like it was trying to become something in GA with a beeline toward S Chatt. She was able to get herself and 5 kids to safety.
And Iím a novice weather-nerdologist!!!

Is there some meteorological phenomena Iím missing that would have cause the watches/warnings to have not been issued earlier? Do the mountains usually nix things? Just seems so not right. (And why I took up weather nerdology - I trust no one!)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on April 13, 2020, 05:50:47 PM
Here's the thing, the wording in every single SVR or TOR watch includes the following blurb: "In AND close to the watch area." So, Hamilton County was adjacent to the watched counties in GA under the Peachtree City WFO, so there shouldn't have been a major surprise.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: byrdymush on April 13, 2020, 06:41:32 PM
Here's the thing, the wording in every single SVR or TOR watch includes the following blurb: "In AND close to the watch area." So, Hamilton County was adjacent to the watched counties in GA under the Peachtree City WFO, so there shouldn't have been a major surprise.
*WE* get that. But I imagine most normal people expect NWS/local news channels to prepare them for the impending possibilities. I wonder what Chatt new channels were saying, for anyone who happened to be up watching it...?


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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 13, 2020, 07:24:58 PM
*WE* get that. But I imagine most normal people expect NWS/local news channels to prepare them for the impending possibilities. I wonder what Chatt new channels were saying, for anyone who happened to be up watching it...?


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They were on wall to wall coverage starting at 6 PM. Our news market covers a lot of north GA as well, and earlier storms were warned in that area. They never broke coverage and were tracking this storm as it was warned in Dade county Ga. The trip over lookout mountain interrupted its inflow and it lifted over Walker county. I noticed the inflow notch strengthening over Catoosa County and moved my family to our safe place. The warning for Hamilton went off about 3 minutes later. TOR-E was about 2 minutes after we had power flashes and freight train noises outside.

Still no power here. Officially the longest outage of my life now. All my Coronavirus food supplies are trash. Iíll be buying a generator after this. I donít care if I never have to use it. I donít want to be caught this unprepared again.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: byrdymush on April 13, 2020, 07:36:30 PM
They were on wall to wall coverage starting at 6 PM. Our news market covers a lot of north GA as well, and earlier storms were warned in that area. They never broke coverage and were tracking this storm as it was warned in Dade county Ga. The trip over lookout mountain interrupted its inflow and it lifted over Walker county. I noticed the inflow birch strengthening over Catoosa County and moved my family to our safe place. The warning for Hamilton went off about 3 minutes later. TOR-E was about 2 minutes after we had power flashes and freight train noises outside.
Yikes!!!!! Glad to know it didnít come as a total surprise to everyone. The photos coming out of there are awful. Hamilton County Sheriff posted 50+.

I just think back to naive 2005 me, new to West TN (born and raised in always-amazing-weather southern California), who knew absolutely nothing about severe weather. If Tipton County didnít have tornado verbiage over it (watch, warning), I assumed no tornados - rain, wind, lighting - and didnít worry about it. Went to bed. Had no alerts set. Stupid girl.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on April 13, 2020, 07:38:06 PM
*WE* get that. But I imagine most normal people expect NWS/local news channels to prepare them for the impending possibilities. I wonder what Chatt new channels were saying, for anyone who happened to be up watching it...?


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I don't know about local market coverage since I am in Fort Jackson, SC, but it seems like it was very well covered in the tv market. Also, the NWS, as well as news media, did a good job of forewarning of the event days in advance. Like I said, a typical John/Jane Doe with a weather radio will hear the verbiage I mentioned earlier whether their specific county is in the watch or not.

I take a more hardline stance in that if people were caught unaware of the potential whatsoever, that's on them personally, because there was plenty of advance notice.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 13, 2020, 08:18:28 PM
Pretty sobering gallery from the Hamilton County Sheriffís Office. I drive by a lot of these homes almost every day.

 https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.2984267621593340&type=3 (https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.2984267621593340&type=3)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Uncle Nasty on April 13, 2020, 09:53:28 PM
They were on wall to wall coverage starting at 6 PM. Our news market covers a lot of north GA as well, and earlier storms were warned in that area. They never broke coverage and were tracking this storm as it was warned in Dade county Ga. The trip over lookout mountain interrupted its inflow and it lifted over Walker county. I noticed the inflow notch strengthening over Catoosa County and moved my family to our safe place. The warning for Hamilton went off about 3 minutes later. TOR-E was about 2 minutes after we had power flashes and freight train noises outside.

Still no power here. Officially the longest outage of my life now. All my Coronavirus food supplies are trash. Iíll be buying a generator after this. I donít care if I never have to use it. I donít want to be caught this unprepared again.
Is the food in your freezer still good? If it is and you have a lot you don't want to lose you are more than welcome to put it in our garage freezer. We can make room. We also have a little space available in the garage beer fridge. The freezer in that is 1/2 full. We live in Ooltewah about 1 mile from the exit

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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on April 13, 2020, 10:25:43 PM
For those who claimed bust.... Here's your crow. Would you like that with a fork? (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200414/9dfdc1a4538d582dd8309785c38d7c90.jpg)

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Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 14, 2020, 05:21:54 AM
Initial storm survey indicates than the path was 9 miles in length and just under a mile wide. I canít believe how wide the damage path is. I donít even think the Apison EF4 was that wide. Mustíve been a monster wedge.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 14, 2020, 05:23:36 AM
Is the food in your freezer still good? If it is and you have a lot you don't want to lose you are more than welcome to put it in our garage freezer. We can make room. We also have a little space available in the garage beer fridge. The freezer in that is 1/2 full. We live in Ooltewah about 1 mile from the exit

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I appreciate this a lot, but I have a standing offer from a relative to borrow a generator. The USDA says I have until tonight to save my frozen foods, but the refrigerated stuff is trash. My EPB app now says next Tuesday for power at my house. Apparently their entire distribution system from TVA for this side of town was destroyed.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 14, 2020, 08:07:16 AM
For those who claimed bust.... Here's your crow. Would you like that with a fork? (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200414/9dfdc1a4538d582dd8309785c38d7c90.jpg)

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I agree, I can eat it when I deserve it....my main point was I thought the original pds watch in ms was a bust because of how far north it reached into Mississippi all the way up to Corinth they ended up readjusting the watch ...it was always going to be a big event for central and southern portions of ms,al and Georgia. the shock to me is the chttanooga area storm, much like how Nashville and cookville shocked me...prayers for all who were impacted :(
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on April 14, 2020, 08:34:57 AM
I agree, I can eat it when I deserve it....my main point was I thought the original pds watch in ms was a bust because of how far north it reached into Mississippi all the way up to Corinth they ended up readjusting the watch ...it was always going to be a big event for central and southern portions of ms,al and Georgia. the shock to me is the chttanooga area storm, much like how Nashville and cookville shocked me...prayers for all who were impacted :(

I could be wrong, but I think every tornado watch that's hoisted inside a MDT risk has to be a PDS.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 14, 2020, 09:34:35 AM
I could be wrong, but I think every tornado watch that's hoisted inside a MDT risk has to be a PDS.

I didn't think so? but I could be wrong ?

that type of situation happens a lot though with these dixie alley events like this , they stretch the watch WAY to the north even though you could see the action was going to be farther south below tupelo for tornadoes. Same for the watch for alabama...the threat was very low for s/w middle Tennessee because it was raining all day long, yet the watch clipped s/w mid tn.....I guess maybe better safe than sorry?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: MemphisJDJ on April 14, 2020, 10:32:02 AM
There was a lot of uncertainty regarding the positioning and movement of the warm front, even after the issuance of the tornado watch
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 14, 2020, 10:55:29 AM
I could be wrong, but I think every tornado watch that's hoisted inside a MDT risk has to be a PDS.
think your right . One time it had to be a high risk for a pds watch
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 14, 2020, 08:30:04 PM
Update: still no power. I have a neighbor that works for an electric repair contractor used by our utility board. He said Saturday or Sunday at the earliest. Despite the relative lack of damage in my neighborhood, all of our tethers to the closest substation have been destroyed. They are essentially rebuilding all of East Brainerdís grid.

I was able to drive through some more areas today after doing some cleanup at my rental house. I have no doubt that this is going to be the costliest natural disaster in local history. A huge number of homes have terminal damage. Most homes in a 1.5 mile strip east of I-75 have damage. Iím talking hundreds of homes. Itís heartbreaking. If it had shifted a mile to the west it would have mostly taken out insured businesses that are closed anyway around the mall. This is just heartbreaking. And itís come at such a tragic time economically.

Latest update from the city echoes the above thoughts. It is estimated that 12000 properties in East Brainerd have been damaged.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on April 14, 2020, 11:03:18 PM
Wow, D-dub, our thoughts go out to you and everyone affected across Ooltewah/E Brainerd.  Knew it was gonna be bad by radar presentation as the TDS went right over Ooletewah proper.  Thankfully, there weren't more injured/killed.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 15, 2020, 12:16:24 PM
*WE* get that. But I imagine most normal people expect NWS/local news channels to prepare them for the impending possibilities. I wonder what Chatt new channels were saying, for anyone who happened to be up watching it...?


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Sadly, the reality of this I fear is there is nothing that can be done beyond what the NWS does already.  If people are not going to pay attention, they aren't going to pay attention.  I think it falls on enthusiasts like us to look out for our friends and family and hopefully there is some trickle down effect from that.  These big events will have people paying attention for a time, but it will eventually quiet down and t hey will again forget.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: bugalou on April 15, 2020, 12:21:01 PM
Update: still no power. I have a neighbor that works for an electric repair contractor used by our utility board. He said Saturday or Sunday at the earliest. Despite the relative lack of damage in my neighborhood, all of our tethers to the closest substation have been destroyed. They are essentially rebuilding all of East Brainerdís grid.

I was able to drive through some more areas today after doing some cleanup at my rental house. I have no doubt that this is going to be the costliest natural disaster in local history. A huge number of homes have terminal damage. Most homes in a 1.5 mile strip east of I-75 have damage. Iím talking hundreds of homes. Itís heartbreaking. If it had shifted a mile to the west it would have mostly taken out insured businesses that are closed anyway around the mall. This is just heartbreaking. And itís come at such a tragic time economically.

Latest update from the city echoes the above thoughts. It is estimated that 12000 properties in East Brainerd have been damaged.

If you need anything I think I speak for all of us, we are here to help in one way or another.  I'd love to help everyone everywhere effected, but will settle for doing what I can for people in our little community here.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Mister2011 on April 15, 2020, 01:25:06 PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8222029/Striking-photos-Mississippi-Tennessee-tornadoes.html

Don't know if anyone has posted these before and after satellite images of the Chattanooga Tornado

My little sister lives in an apartment complex 1,000 feet west of East Brained Elementary School... she is now obsessed (maybe gripped is a better word?) and will likely be joining this forum shortly. Been informing her about dual-pol and radarscope, most any family member has ever engaged me about weather  ;)

We all have that moment in our lives I think that led us here. Hopefully not as strong of an event for each of us that gave us the " weather bug" .

As others have echoed, please reach out if you need help. I do not live in Chatt but grew up there and have lots of family that are itching to do something for their community right now.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 15, 2020, 01:26:02 PM
Death count goes up by 1 as the 4 year old Chattanooga boy succumbs to his injuries. Man I am crushed over this one, especially after seeing the picture of the shape he was in. I was really pulling for him.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 15, 2020, 04:57:26 PM
Death count goes up by 1 as the 4 year old Chattanooga boy succumbs to his injuries. Man I am crushed over this one, especially after seeing the picture of the shape he was in. I was really pulling for him.
Apparently the father is also in critical condition and may not make it. They lived in a home which was built in 1998 on a lot that was made vacant by the 1997 Easter Sunday  F3 tornado. Time is a flat circle.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on April 15, 2020, 08:36:22 PM
Apparently the father is also in critical condition and may not make it. They lived in a home which was built in 1998 on a lot that was made vacant by the 1997 Easter Sunday  F3 tornado. Time is a flat circle.

No frickin' way.....
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 15, 2020, 10:03:18 PM
No frickin' way.....
Yeah itís crazy. They lived on a short street that leads to the East Brainerd ballpark. I was still playing little league when that storm hit, and I distinctly remember the houses on that street were demolished. Actually several houses in the adjacent streets were as well. They have now been damaged twice in 23 years on the same holiday. Path width of the 1997 storm was pretty narrow compared to this storm.

Survey has been posted:
 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=MRX (https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=MRX)
145 mph EF-3. Path width 1500 yds or 0.85 miles, length was 14.5 miles but this does not include the segment in Catoosa county Georgia. FFC hasnít surveyed that segment yet.

Looking at the MRX tornado database, this is by far the widest path of any tornado in Hamilton county. Itís nearly double the path width of the infamous Apison EF4 from the super outbreak.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on April 16, 2020, 12:03:54 AM
2 mile-wide tornado in MS.  ::wow::

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/04/15/record-wide-mississippi-tornado (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/04/15/record-wide-mississippi-tornado)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Mister2011 on April 16, 2020, 10:08:36 AM
These may not show up well, but sure can see the Chattanooga Tornado damage path on MODIS Satellite

Before (Saturday the 10th)
(https://i.imgur.com/puTjYBn.jpg)

After (15th)
(https://i.imgur.com/X6HNdad.jpg)
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 16, 2020, 10:45:48 AM
The public's anger has really built over the Chattanooga tornado, in particular towards the Hamilton County Gov. Honestly it does seem like the ball was dropped, bur the finger can't be pointed at just one.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 16, 2020, 11:23:02 AM
The public's anger has really built over the Chattanooga tornado, in particular towards the Hamilton County Gov. Honestly it does seem like the ball was dropped, bur the finger can't be pointed at just one.

I may be late to this, what is the anger about, poor response?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 16, 2020, 01:54:32 PM
I may be late to this, what is the anger about, poor response?

Poor response and lack of warning.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on April 16, 2020, 02:30:38 PM
Poor response and lack of warning.

Lack of warning is a tough one....that happens from time to time just like our 3-2-20 supercell that in some places never had a warning
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 16, 2020, 02:44:11 PM
Lack of warning is a tough one....that happens from time to time just like our 3-2-20 supercell that in some places never had a warning
I understand the short warning time on this one. It weakened substantially in North GA before quickly wrapping back up just before crossing into TN. The warning alert went off on my phone at 11:18. We lost power at 11:24. It still isn't back on. I've put 46 hours on my generator.

What surprises me most of all is that the storm mode at the time was linear. Who expects a mile-wide EF3 from a linear storm?
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 16, 2020, 06:29:51 PM
I understand the short warning time on this one. It weakened substantially in North GA before quickly wrapping back up just before crossing into TN. The warning alert went off on my phone at 11:18. We lost power at 11:24. It still isn't back on. I've put 46 hours on my generator.

What surprises me most of all is that the storm mode at the time was linear. Who expects a mile-wide EF3 from a linear storm?
It is uncommon but we had an F4 in 1997 that was embedded in glob of storms that you would never expect a tornado. We received over 10 inches of rain that night.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 16, 2020, 06:37:35 PM
Power is back! Finally had a hot shower. I feel like a different person.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 18, 2020, 08:47:44 PM
FFCís survey has come in. The path length has been revised to 20 miles. My tenants still have no power. I have lent them my generator. Access to that area is severely restricted since some scum of humanity was caught looting this week.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 21, 2020, 09:05:45 PM
Damage estimate is in:
 https://www.chattanoogan.com/2020/4/21/407888/Chattanooga-Tornado-Damage-Put-At-225.aspx (https://www.chattanoogan.com/2020/4/21/407888/Chattanooga-Tornado-Damage-Put-At-225.aspx)
Almost a quarter of a billion dollars.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on April 24, 2020, 07:09:27 PM
We had 28 million dollars in power grid damage from this storm. This exceeds the amount in EPBís service area from the super outbreak in 2011.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on May 10, 2020, 03:36:10 PM
I toured the tornado damage yesterday starting at the East Brainerd Rd end near Food City, down Gray/Jenkins Rd, down Standifer Gap and then on to Bill Reed Rd. Having grown up in and having spent at least a 3rd of my life directly in the area, I was overwhelmed to near the point of tears. It looked like a 3rd world country. Driving down some of those roads there were many areas I didn't even recognize. I've driven down those roads hundreds if not thousands of times. The mass amount of trees gone is unbelievable, which is going to end up having several negative implications.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on May 10, 2020, 09:21:38 PM
I toured the tornado damage yesterday starting at the East Brainerd Rd end near Food City, down Gray/Jenkins Rd, down Standifer Gap and then on to Bill Reed Rd. Having grown up in and having spent at least a 3rd of my life directly in the area, I was overwhelmed to near the point of tears. It looked like a 3rd world country. Driving down some of those roads there were many areas I didn't even recognize. I've driven down those roads hundreds if not thousands of times. The mass amount of trees gone is unbelievable, which is going to end up having several negative implications.
I havenít been down Standifer Gap yet. Gray Rd is probably the worst of it. There is a lot of high end EF-3 damage there. Most of the homes are a total loss. My wife rented a room in one of those houses during college. Itís gone. My best friend lived almost across the street from it. Also destroyed.

I learned this week from my tenants that apparently the roof at my old house is leaking during rain and has been since the storm. After climbing up there and inspecting, Iím definitely filing an insurance claim. There was a lot of damage that wasnít easily seen from the ground. As an engineer and not a storm surveyor, I would put the winds at my property in the 100-115 mph range. I kinda wish I had kept my weather station up. It probably would have been carried away, but I would love to see that data.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on May 18, 2020, 03:48:44 PM
Insurance estimate for damage at my rental house is nearly $12000. They are going to totally replace the roof. This is actually the first time in my life I'm having to file a homeowner's claim.
Title: Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on October 06, 2020, 07:26:11 PM
The paper had an article summarizing insurance claims from the Easter tornado.
Residential: 326.2 million
Commercial: 83.4 million
Auto: 21.7 million
Business interruption: 3.8 million
The total including some flooding damage and other miscellaneous stuff is $439.3 million. Costliest natural disaster ever for this area.

I post this because I finally closed out my insurance claim on our rental property. Wound up close to $17k. I actually feel lucky. The house was roughly 1000í away from homes that were total losses.