Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Tropical Spin Zone => Topic started by: Thundersnow on April 03, 2020, 10:39:57 AM

Title: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on April 03, 2020, 10:39:57 AM
An active season is expected this year.

A total of 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes are expected this season.
This is above the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-04-01-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-april-outlook
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: schneitzeit on April 03, 2020, 12:28:04 PM
An active season is expected this year.

A total of 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes are expected this season.
This is above the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-04-01-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-april-outlook

Greeaaaaat. The last thing this country needs is a destructive hurricane season with billions of dollars in damages.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on April 03, 2020, 12:41:50 PM
We can't take any natural disasters of any kind for at least the next year. We need these storms to remain fish storms. Also, all fault lines need to sit still.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: NashRugger on April 03, 2020, 03:36:37 PM
We'll see what the developing El nio has to say.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BRUCE on April 03, 2020, 03:50:46 PM
We'll see what the developing El nio has to say.
more rain n flooding what it will say ...
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on May 13, 2020, 05:38:34 AM
We have a chance at the season's first tropical or subtropical storm forming off the southeast coast in the next few days. If it evolves into a named system it will be Arthur.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: gcbama on May 13, 2020, 11:56:32 AM
Hey all, when was the last time we had inland tropical storm warnings/advisories in our area....I seem to remember early to mid 2000's we had one here in middle Tennessee I think maybe Katrina? I was fascinated by it when it happened
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Mister2011 on May 13, 2020, 12:46:44 PM
Hey all, when was the last time we had inland tropical storm warnings/advisories in our area....I seem to remember early to mid 2000's we had one here in middle Tennessee I think maybe Katrina? I was fascinated by it when it happened

Katrina appears to be the last time on an almost state wide basis, west TN had some tropical storm warnings from Dennis during the summer of 2005. Appears TN had a bunch of Tropical Storm warnings and damage in Sept 16 and 17 2004, but can't really find what system that was associated with

Had some Topical Depression warnings in west TN from Ike in 2008 as well

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/choosedates.jsp?statefips=47%2CTENNESSEE
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on May 13, 2020, 01:38:08 PM
Katrina appears to be the last time on an almost state wide basis, west TN had some tropical storm warnings from Dennis during the summer of 2005. Appears TN had a bunch of Tropical Storm warnings and damage in Sept 16 and 17 2004, but can't really find what system that was associated with

Had some Topical Depression warnings in west TN from Ike in 2008 as well

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/choosedates.jsp?statefips=47%2CTENNESSEE
Im pretty sure I was under one for Hurricane Michael. It was either Michael or Irma.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on May 13, 2020, 02:42:39 PM
Im pretty sure I was under one for Hurricane Michael. It was either Michael or Irma.

Irma (2017) had Franklin, Lincoln, and Moore Counties under a Tropical Storm Warning.   
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on May 13, 2020, 04:25:31 PM
Hey all, when was the last time we had inland tropical storm warnings/advisories in our area....I seem to remember early to mid 2000's we had one here in middle Tennessee I think maybe Katrina? I was fascinated by it when it happened

I could've sworn I was under one when Opal came through Chattanooga in 95'.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on May 15, 2020, 10:24:54 AM
NOAA is saying that what is now Invest 90L off the coast of Florida has an 80% chance of development in the next 48 hours.  It looks like it will stay a fish storm, but these can cause rough surf and offshore conditions for the southeast coast, which will be a concern for those who are venturing out for vacations right now.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on May 17, 2020, 07:46:27 AM
Parts of NC are now under a tropical storm warning for impacts from Arthur even though it is projected to stay offshore. That puts our first mainland tropical system impact this year before the official start of hurricane season.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: TNHunter on May 17, 2020, 08:41:19 AM
Parts of NC are now under a tropical storm warning for impacts from Arthur even though it is projected to stay offshore. That puts our first mainland tropical system impact this year before the official start of hurricane season.

I dont keep up with tropical weather very well but it seems the last few years there is often a tropical system close to Memorial wknd.  Then after that it goes dead awhile it seems
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on May 26, 2020, 07:51:44 AM
Long range GFS has a tropical storm/low end hurricane coming off the Yucatan Peninsula and landfalling along the Florida west coast.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on May 26, 2020, 07:56:39 AM
Long range GFS has a tropical storm/low end hurricane coming off the Yucatan Peninsula and landfalling along the Florida west coast.
Let's hope this is just the GFS being the GFS and we don't get a landfalling storm.  My gosh, we don't need more natural disasters (after the flooding in Michigan) on top of everything else our country has faced in 2020. 

I realize based on season projections my hope isn't rational as we should see an above average season this year, but we can still hope for a lucky break.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on May 26, 2020, 07:59:19 AM
Let's hope this is just the GFS being the GFS and we don't get a landfalling storm.  My gosh, we don't need more natural disasters (after the flooding in Michigan) on top of everything else our country has faced in 2020. 

I realize based on season projections my hope isn't rational as we should see an above average season this year, but we can still hope for a lucky break.

This the year of Murphy's Law I'm afraid. Anything that can go wrong, will lol. I certainly don't want anymore natural disasters. This country cannot handle that right now. This would be incredibly poor timing as well for my friends that just moved from Denver to Tampa.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on May 27, 2020, 07:24:06 AM
We have Tropical Storm Bertha right off the coast of South Carolina expected to move into South Carolina between Charleston and Georgetown, SC. 

That is 2 before June 1st.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on May 27, 2020, 07:33:59 AM
We have Tropical Storm Bertha right off the coast of South Carolina expected to move into South Carolina between Charleston and Georgetown, SC. 

That is 2 before June 1st.

Quote
This the year of Murphy's Law I'm afraid.
- mamMATTus

My gosh our country needs to catch a lucky break soon.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on May 27, 2020, 03:38:39 PM
Really wild looking radar again over the SE US today with Bertha making landfall and interacting with the large closed low over the lower MS valley.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: wfrogge on May 28, 2020, 08:28:52 AM
Let's hope this is just the GFS being the GFS and we don't get a landfalling storm.  My gosh, we don't need more natural disasters (after the flooding in Michigan) on top of everything else our country has faced in 2020. 

I realize based on season projections my hope isn't rational as we should see an above average season this year, but we can still hope for a lucky break.

Its still showing up on the GFS and now on the GDPS, and ECMWF. With no real flow to push things along my fear is we will get a system that just sits and spins in one spot for days like we are seeing with the ULL systems over TX/AR/LA/TN/MS right now
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on May 29, 2020, 06:47:48 PM
NHC is showing 40-60% development chances for two different areas, one in the mid Atlantic and the other on the Pacific side of Central America. The one near Central America is being watched to potentially cross into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. Pretty active pattern to watch for so early in the year.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BRUCE on May 31, 2020, 08:10:02 AM
ensembles starting to show a gulf coast landing hurricane within 10 days... most point toward the Louisiana coast line... ::coffee::
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BeetleChe13 on June 01, 2020, 08:53:03 AM
NHC this morning showing an 80% chance that Invest 93L/Remnants of Amanda will develop into a tropical system in the next 48 hours. Some models show it staying near the coast and re-entering the Pacific (which would be pretty unique), but most show it developing into a hurricane and hitting Louisana or northern part of Texas coast. Almost all of the models show it spinning in the Bay of Campeche for a couple of days first. Off to an active start.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: gcbama on June 01, 2020, 03:07:59 PM
this gulf system is def one to watch very intently
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on June 02, 2020, 05:54:38 AM
Jim Cantore is getting on board with the Gulf system. Early spaghetti models are favoring Texas but plenty of lines also go farther East to landfall in Louisiana. We may have a storm to actively track in a few days.

EDIT: We officially have TD3 now in the Gulf. NHC expects it to strengthen into TS Cristobal by later today.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Nash_LSU on June 02, 2020, 04:40:45 PM
Looking like there's the potential for a pretty decent rainmaker in the TN and OH valleys about a week out if this storm tracks west of us as currently modeled. 

I'm always weary to see Nola on the east side of a storm. Their pump situation is dubious on a good day, and the past couple months have been anything but good days. I used to work closely with S&WB when I lived there and I can almost guarantee they haven't been doing any of the needed maintenance the past couple of months to get the system ready for hurricane season. Local rumor mill is that some of the pumps are already on backup power because some power units are down.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on June 02, 2020, 04:48:31 PM
As expected we have an official Tropical Storm now, Cristobal. June 2 and we're already on our third named storm of the season. That doesn't necessarily predict a season as active as what's predicted but it does start checking the boxes on the number of named storms for the year. This far out I hope the whole Gulf coast is paying attention until we get a better idea of where this thing is going and how strong it will be when it gets there. With so much on the news already I'm afraid weather, even severe weather and hurricanes, may go under-reported and put people in danger.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on June 03, 2020, 06:43:51 AM
Right now it looks like we'll have a high-end TS impacting the Gulf coast by Sunday/Monday. The potential landfall right now is somewhere from Houston to Alabama, but it's expected to have much more activity to the east than the west of the core so heavy rain and wind may go a long way from landfall.

Local forecasts aren't picking up on the impacts for Tennessee yet, but if we continue to sit in between the steering high pressure areas I won't be surprised to see it move inland and drench parts or all of the state since more precipitation will be east of the storm track. With rivers and lakes high already this may be one to watch for us, and especially for impacts on a still flooded Mississippi River.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 08, 2020, 07:06:05 AM
It's unlikely to turn into much but NHC is showing a 60% chance of development with the system off the Carolina coast at the moment. It should put down heavy rain from the Carolinas all the way to New England in the next few days.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 09, 2020, 08:45:09 PM
While the impact should thankfully be minimal, TS Fay is the earliest F named storm on record. It's been relatively quiet in terms of damage so far but this has been a busy hurricane season already.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 21, 2020, 02:51:06 PM
There's a good chance of a tropical system, either storm or depression, forming in the Gulf in the next few days. It will probably be just a Texas/Louisiana impact with nothing coming into our area, but if it ends up a named storm it would add to the active season total so far. And also, it's something actually weather related to distract us from the non-weather things happening in the world.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 22, 2020, 09:35:55 AM
Completely different than the expected tropical development in the Gulf we suddenly have TS Gonzalo out in the Atlantic. It's way too early to reasonably discuss track or intensity at this point but by the weekend we may possibly have two named systems active.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on July 22, 2020, 01:54:00 PM
Here's the current forecast track for Gonzalo

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL072020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144224_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)

Note- this is the earliest on record for a G-named storm.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on July 22, 2020, 02:00:34 PM
The H-storm looks to follow in the Gulf.   
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 22, 2020, 02:08:13 PM
Here's the current forecast track for Gonzalo

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL072020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144224_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)

Note- this is the earliest on record for a G-named storm.
Thanks for posting this. It's still way out but the early track certainly looks like the classic path to come into the Gulf and blow up over warm water. I don't even want to think about the disruption right now if a major Hurricane prompts a large scale evacuation. We have to get a break in 2020 sooner or later, right?
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 23, 2020, 07:09:39 AM
Gonzalo should be a hurricane by tomorrow morning, but will likely weaken again once it starts interacting with land as it crosses the Windward Islands and then gets into Haiti/DR. The track still looks to eventually bring it into the Gulf, and once it's in that bathwater who knows?
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on July 23, 2020, 07:32:41 AM
00z GFS has a landfalling Gonzalo as a tropical storm hitting New Orleans around August 7th. I feel like this is almost a best case scenario with Gulf bathwater. I'll take this with a grain of salt.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 23, 2020, 11:30:41 AM
We've now got Tropical Storm Watches across most of the Texas coast for what is currently TD8.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on July 23, 2020, 12:08:02 PM
I wonder if Gonzalo ends up in Central America. The 5 day out look keeps it way far south, well south of Jamaica, even. It could certainly make a turn into the southern Gulf beyond that though.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: schneitzeit on July 24, 2020, 05:29:31 AM
The system in the Gulf is now Tropical Storm Hanna, expected to make landfall in southern Texas and Tamaulipas.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on July 24, 2020, 07:20:57 AM
Hanna is trending away from Matagorda Bay and more towards Deep South TX or even the border.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: schneitzeit on July 24, 2020, 07:59:26 AM
I wonder if Gonzalo ends up in Central America. The 5 day out look keeps it way far south, well south of Jamaica, even. It could certainly make a turn into the southern Gulf beyond that though.

It's very far south right now- parallel with Venezuela!
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 24, 2020, 09:01:34 AM
After record early 6th and 7th named storms of the season TS Hanna is the earliest ever H storm. We've also got a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa that's being watched. Weather is thankfully pretty calm for us locally but there's going to be lots to watch in the tropics for a while.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on July 24, 2020, 05:26:43 PM
Hanna is now forecast to make landfall just south of Corpus Christi as a CAT 1 Hurricane, which is not what that area needed especially since that area is one of the hardest hit areas currently in the world due to COVID-19.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: schneitzeit on July 24, 2020, 06:22:07 PM
I did not know that about the disease.

I saw the track has been revised to make landfall smack into SE Texas and then curve south across the border into Nuevo Len and Coahuila.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on July 25, 2020, 08:03:07 AM
The good news about Hanna is it will make landfall in that no mans land area between Corpus and Brownsville that will be the worst of the winds.

Surge will be a concern for Corpus Christi.  Heavy rain, flooding, and tropical storm forced winds in very COVID-19 hard hit TX/MX border areas.   
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on July 27, 2020, 09:28:42 AM
I guess that's just a large MCV over lower LA this morning? Certainly looks like a tropical system. . .
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 28, 2020, 03:04:50 PM
The long term forecast cone of what will probably be TS Isaias by tonight most likely comes into FL as a tropical storm on Sunday, with a possibility of the coast of Georgia or South Carolina if it gets out to the eastern side of the forecast cone. Of course this many days out Sunday could be anything from sunny to a major hurricane somewhere between Mexico and New England, but it does seem worth watching to see how it develops.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Matthew on July 28, 2020, 06:57:58 PM
The long term forecast cone of what will probably be TS Isaias by tonight most likely comes into FL as a tropical storm on Sunday, with a possibility of the coast of Georgia or South Carolina if it gets out to the eastern side of the forecast cone. Of course this many days out Sunday could be anything from sunny to a major hurricane somewhere between Mexico and New England, but it does seem worth watching to see how it develops.
I have a niece in TB.  She bought lots of extra supplies before season started expecting it to be a bad season.  Hopefully it goes ots.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on July 28, 2020, 07:29:40 PM
Land interaction and model-chaos combine to form the lowest confidence forecast of the season.  This thing could get sheared out over Puerto Rico or the Domincan Republic or somehow avoid most of the land and come out a hurricane where the answers lie between Gulf Coast impact, Florida impact, or Bahamas and then fish impact.   
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on July 29, 2020, 10:45:29 PM
And just like that Isaias formed and then started to take the right hand path and ride the Gulf Stream.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: gcbama on July 30, 2020, 08:27:35 AM
And just like that Isaias formed and then started to take the right hand path and ride the Gulf Stream.

we have had a few of these in the past few years they just ride right along the east coast of florida about 30 miles offshore, always interesting to see
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on August 05, 2020, 11:22:23 AM
Fantasy Forecasts are now making the rounds for a system in the Gulf around the 20th at 300hrs+. Spann has already put out a disclaimer warning not to trust these social media posts.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 05, 2020, 06:24:43 PM
Fantasy Forecasts are now making the rounds for a system in the Gulf around the 20th at 300hrs+. Spann has already put out a disclaimer warning not to trust these social media posts.
Way out there in fantasy land but what a monster.  ::faint::
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on August 05, 2020, 06:29:41 PM
It looks like we'll have plenty to talk about in the next couple of months. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BRUCE on August 06, 2020, 11:48:07 AM
 ::wow::
It looks like we'll have plenty to talk about in the next couple of months. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast
::wow::
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on August 06, 2020, 03:17:43 PM
we have had a few of these in the past few years they just ride right along the east coast of florida about 30 miles offshore, always interesting to see
I have a theory that the SE coastline is shaped the way it is because this is a frequent storm path. Over several thousand years, a curve has been eroded into the coast along FL, GA, SC and NC.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on August 06, 2020, 03:29:39 PM
I have a theory that the SE coastline is shaped the way it is because this is a frequent storm path. Over several thousand years, a curve has been eroded into the coast along FL, GA, SC and NC.

I've had the very same thought. On the other hand, maybe the shape of the coastline causes the storms to turn as they tend to do there.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BRUCE on August 06, 2020, 04:21:11 PM
I have a theory that the SE coastline is shaped the way it is because this is a frequent storm path. Over several thousand years, a curve has been eroded into the coast along FL, GA, SC and NC.
fact... I read that somewhere.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on August 09, 2020, 02:56:45 PM
There's an emerging system just off the coast of Africa that NHC is putting at a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days. Given the track record so far this season and the overall favorable conditions it will be worth watching.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on August 10, 2020, 12:06:36 PM
There's an emerging system just off the coast of Africa that NHC is putting at a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days. Given the track record so far this season and the overall favorable conditions it will be worth watching.
Both the 2 day and 5 day outlooks are now up to 60% probability of development.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on August 10, 2020, 07:23:08 PM
The Gulf is ripe for an explosion of wind and water. I fear the worst.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: schneitzeit on August 10, 2020, 09:30:36 PM
The Gulf is ripe for an explosion of wind and water. I fear the worst.

The Gulf is America's metaphorical bathtub.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on August 11, 2020, 02:22:40 PM
NHC has updated tropical system formation probability of the system in the Gulf up to 90% in the next 48 hours. That's about as absolute as you can get with a weather forecast.

I saw one way too early spaghetti model on a weather site I follow that has many of the tracks headed straight into the east coast of the U.S., with just a couple swinging north and back out to sea. We're reasonably several days out from anything even resembling reliable tracks, but formation is all but certain and we've got very favorable conditions for a strong system coming across the Atlantic and landfalling in the U.S. Let's all hope for a fish storm, we don't need any more catastrophes in 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on August 11, 2020, 08:09:38 PM
Officially a TD now, will be Josephine if it reaches TS strength.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Nash_LSU on August 12, 2020, 07:14:48 AM
As of now, it looks to be a potential Bermuda-only problem. Not ideal, but landfalls are rare there, so percentages are on their side.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on August 14, 2020, 06:57:01 AM
The track for Josephine thankfully looks to take a hard right and stay a fish storm rather than getting to the U.S., which is great news.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: ryandourius on August 14, 2020, 07:36:02 AM
The computer models are picking up on something getting into the Gulf area this weekend or early next week. We will see how it goes.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on August 14, 2020, 07:04:02 PM
And just like that we've got TS Kyle off the Virginia coast. It's headed almost due East into the Atlantic but it really seems to have come from nowhere.

I'll be honest, storms like this scare me. If a sizeable hurricane ramps up suddenly without giving people the chance to prepare or evacuate it could be really disastrous. The weather may be boring where we are but the Atlantic is getting nuts.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: schneitzeit on August 14, 2020, 08:27:18 PM
Wow. Is that pretty uncommon to see tropical storms spawn in latitudes that far north? VA is about 37-38⁰N.

You're right, Knox, it does appear it's going to veer ENE with the warmest waters, I suppose with the direction of the Gulf Stream.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Nash_LSU on August 17, 2020, 09:58:09 AM
Double-header action forming as we head in to the peak. Canadian is showing back-to-back hits between MS and the Panhandle. GFS is showing one of these going in to TX as a Cat3. Definitely something to keep our eyes on.

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png)
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: NismoWx on August 17, 2020, 02:02:25 PM
Double-header action forming as we head in to the peak. Canadian is showing back-to-back hits between MS and the Panhandle. GFS is showing one of these going in to TX as a Cat3. Definitely something to keep our eyes on.

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png)

Welp, I'll be in Destin Friday. Flying down to see my sister and the kids before I go back to work. Hopefully they'll both fizzle out and turn into the Yucatan.

Edit: Looks like a 50/50 shot there..

(https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif)
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Nash_LSU on August 17, 2020, 04:15:22 PM
If you're sticking around until Wednesday and believe the Canadian this far out, I, uh, have some bad news for you.  ::drowning::

(https://i.imgur.com/CirVETF.png)
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: NismoWx on August 17, 2020, 05:13:20 PM
If you're sticking around until Wednesday and believe the Canadian this far out, I, uh, have some bad news for you.  ::drowning::

(https://i.imgur.com/CirVETF.png)
Nope, I fly home Monday morning. My sister and parents may not be far behind, if that's holds

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on August 19, 2020, 08:49:20 AM
The computer models are picking up on something getting into the Gulf area this weekend or early next week. We will see how it goes.
You got onto this one early. It's now being discussed as Invest 97L with an 80% chance of development in the next 5 days as it comes into the Gulf. Models are all over the place, from the Florida panhandle to Mexico, but something is going to happen.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: gcbama on August 19, 2020, 02:25:47 PM
You got onto this one early. It's now being discussed as Invest 97L with an 80% chance of development in the next 5 days as it comes into the Gulf. Models are all over the place, from the Florida panhandle to Mexico, but something is going to happen.

yep who knows exactly how it will go , but something is gonna happen along with Invest 98
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BeetleChe13 on August 19, 2020, 06:54:45 PM
yep who knows exactly how it will go , but something is gonna happen along with Invest 98

I agree. The wave behind them is particularly juicy as well, so I hope NHC's discussion that it will face inhospitable conditions past Cabo Verde holds true. The models seems to be having a hard time with the systems so far this year, mostly because the systems have had difficulty forming a clear, closed LLC. This has led to several small surprises already, and I don't think it'll change in the immediate future. I've got my hurricane kit prepared and am staying on my toes. Anyone else think the peak this year will be a little later than usual? Considering the conditions haven't been ideal up to this point, I think it's just getting started. My two cents is the season will kick into high gear mid-September to early October because of the MJO and La Nina forecasts.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on August 20, 2020, 06:19:10 AM
We've now got TD13 with a forecast cone largely riding up the FL peninsula. Too early to really believe the track, but it looks like some kind of Gulf coast landfall is increasingly likely, with the Atlantic coast not completely out of the question.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Nash_LSU on August 20, 2020, 06:51:50 AM
Yeah, most models are on board for a Gulf storm. Seeing everything from a weak TS to Cat 3 somewhere between Morgan City to Apalachee Bay.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: NismoWx on August 20, 2020, 10:13:22 AM
TD13 and TD14, with 13 expected to reach TS status by the end of the day. It's about to get nautical in the Gulf!(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200820/9a031973f73c78cd119a6e5927c26526.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200820/a0d421b44176f41453aba3c42a708615.jpg)

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Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on August 20, 2020, 10:25:45 AM
The potential of nearly simultaneous landfalling systems, both in Gulf, is just insane. For those that have a better understanding of the dynamics, will two storms this close to each other somewhat minimize the total energy available to either and keep both weaker than they might be otherwise? I'm sure similar things have happened before but I certainly can't remember it.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Matthew on August 20, 2020, 10:40:16 AM
I have a lot of friends and family that live on the west side around Tampa. 
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Matthew on August 20, 2020, 10:41:41 AM
The potential of nearly simultaneous landfalling systems, both in Gulf, is just insane. For those that have a better understanding of the dynamics, will two storms this close to each other somewhat minimize the total energy available to either and keep both weaker than they might be otherwise? I'm sure similar things have happened before but I certainly can't remember it.
What is also going to be interesting to watch is how many tornadoes will be going off in parts of the United States at the same time along with flooding rains. Were talking multiple states as both storms come into the US. Only in 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on August 20, 2020, 01:20:30 PM
The potential of nearly simultaneous landfalling systems, both in Gulf, is just insane. For those that have a better understanding of the dynamics, will two storms this close to each other somewhat minimize the total energy available to either and keep both weaker than they might be otherwise? I'm sure similar things have happened before but I certainly can't remember it.

I was wondering the exact same thing. Surely it would have too. This is certainly a best case scenario for sure.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: gcbama on August 20, 2020, 02:03:10 PM
TD13 and TD14, with 13 expected to reach TS status by the end of the day. It's about to get nautical in the Gulf!(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200820/9a031973f73c78cd119a6e5927c26526.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200820/a0d421b44176f41453aba3c42a708615.jpg)

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what are the upper dynamics looking like in 5 days? sheer / dry air? obviously the gulf waters are always ripe but it depends on everything else
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Matthew on August 20, 2020, 03:40:39 PM
what are the upper dynamics looking like in 5 days? sheer / dry air? obviously the gulf waters are always ripe but it depends on everything else
Sheer and dry air look to be gone leaving a perfect environment for the second storm that looks to track eastern gom.  Now of course were still talking 3-4 days out so anything can change. If models are right and this tracks right along the west side of FL then its worse case  scenario with storm surge.  Also the inland impacts will be very interesting as if will the storms stall or be pulled out but some areas could see unreal rain amounts.  Especially with 2 systems jogging along slowly that close together.  Lots to see what happens.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on August 20, 2020, 05:46:47 PM
While the potential double gulf systems are interesting, my sights are set on Labor Day week. Im working from home now, so I decided to do so from a beach condo that week. I need a change of scenery. Isle of Palms SC is the destination. We usually go for the week of July 4th. Weve never been during peak hurricane season before.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on September 01, 2020, 05:45:58 PM
Amazing- its just September 1st, and we are already at the O-storm in the Atlantic basin.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 07, 2020, 11:56:30 AM
We officially have TS Paulette now in the Atlantic and good odds of seeing TS Rene develop before the day is over. The peak of the season looks to stay very interesting.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on September 07, 2020, 12:23:08 PM
It is all but certain that we are going to Greek Names this year.  I wonder if we get an landfalling Alpha or Beta.   
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 08, 2020, 06:03:20 AM
Rene is now a named storm. Based on the current forecast cones it looks like both could be fish storms, but I've been seeing discussions that the high pressure over the Atlantic is likely to swing storms south into the U.S. coast. It's a long time from now for either storm so for now we can just check the daily updates and see what develops.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 08, 2020, 08:09:09 AM
In addition to the big storms swirling way out in the Atlantic the system near Bermuda may end up landfalling as a weak TS somewhere in the Carolinas within the next 2-3 days. We may be dealing with warm, boring weather locally but there's plenty to track right now.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BeetleChe13 on September 08, 2020, 05:04:49 PM
[attach=1][attach=1]And now a wave behind them to monitor that hasn't even emerged off of Africa yet. Definitely hitting peak season.

Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on September 09, 2020, 07:26:54 AM
In addition to the big storms swirling way out in the Atlantic the system near Bermuda may end up landfalling as a weak TS somewhere in the Carolinas within the next 2-3 days. We may be dealing with warm, boring weather locally but there's plenty to track right now.
Im at isle of palms SC all week this week. Its been very windy since Sunday, and it rained all day yesterday and last night. There has been brilliant lightning off shore the entire time weve been here. Ive kinda suspected something was brewing. At least it hasnt been hot. High temps have been in the low 80s. Overall its been nice despite the rain.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 09, 2020, 07:28:30 AM
(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link) And now a wave behind them to monitor that hasn't even emerged off of Africa yet. Definitely hitting peak season.
Discussion I saw last night says that third wave coming off Africa soon is much more concerning to us in the U.S. Right now it's expected to track farther south than the two currently out there, which means a greater chance that it comes into the Gulf or the east coast and doesn't get carried off north as a fish storm. I think it's the one for us to focus on in the next week plus.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BeetleChe13 on September 09, 2020, 11:14:08 PM
Discussion I saw last night says that third wave coming off Africa soon is much more concerning to us in the U.S. Right now it's expected to track farther south than the two currently out there, which means a greater chance that it comes into the Gulf or the east coast and doesn't get carried off north as a fish storm. I think it's the one for us to focus on in the next week plus.

I definitely agree this one is particularly concerning, though I would love the season to finish with fish storms and low ACE. Also, there's now another disturbance off the east coast of FL that will track over the FL peninsula this weekend and into the eastern GOMEX. I think this one might take people by surprise.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 10, 2020, 05:46:47 AM
Also, there's now another disturbance off the east coast of FL that will track over the FL peninsula this weekend and into the eastern GOMEX. I think this one might take people by surprise.
Saw a tweet from Jim Cantore on that one this morning. He's not saying anything other than keep an eye on it, but it has the potential to turn into a storm over the weekend. Craziness.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 11, 2020, 09:06:18 AM
The disturbance off the southern tip of FL right now has a 40% chance of development in 2 days but 60% in 5 days. It looks likely that we'll have a storm in the Gulf early next week.

The area that just came off the coast of Africa is essentially guaranteed to develop (90% in 5 days) and the tracks I've seen have it swinging south of the last 2 named systems with a good chance of getting to the U.S. It may be the biggest thing to watch for a while as it has plenty of time to develop and pretty much everything is in play this far out. There's also yet another system that's still over land in Africa at the moment that may turn into something in the longer time frame. Tropical forecasters are going to stay very busy.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on September 11, 2020, 04:53:30 PM
We will be using Greek Names by the end of this month. 
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Eric on September 11, 2020, 08:29:25 PM
Looks like TD19 may stall somewhere along the GoM.  That would suck.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 12, 2020, 06:33:09 AM
The forecast cone had TD19 coming into the LA/MS coastline as a TS midweek. Stuff off the coast of Africa is looking pretty healthy at the moment too. The peak of the season may be one for the record books.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: TNHunter on September 12, 2020, 01:51:32 PM
Never have been interested in tropical systems at all but it seems a lot of the tropical weather nerds are chattering a lot on TV about the rest of this season.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 13, 2020, 05:34:45 AM
TD20 is looking to eventually swing north and follow the pattern right now if fish storms coming off of Africa. That track pattern is a lucky break for the U.S.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 13, 2020, 06:38:11 PM
TD20 is now forecast to be a major hurricane by Thursday, but the track looks to stay over open water.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BRUCE on September 13, 2020, 08:26:32 PM
TD20 is looking to eventually swing north and follow the pattern right now if fish storms coming off of Africa. That track pattern is a lucky break for the U.S.
yeah, keep pumping up that southeastern ridge this winter... ::yum::
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 14, 2020, 10:38:22 AM
We will be using Greek Names by the end of this month.
Well, today we're up to Vicky, so Wilfred will be the last name in the book. With another complex already coming off the African coast I doubt it will take the rest of the month to hit the Greek names.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on September 14, 2020, 02:11:31 PM
I noticed there was no "U" named storm- apparently because U names aren't very common. Same with X, Y, and Z.

I can think of a few U names-

Ulysses
Uriah
Uzziah
Ursula
Uhura... c'mon NHC, be creative!
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2020, 02:18:37 PM
I noticed there was no "U" named storm- apparently because U names aren't very common. Same with X, Y, and Z.

I can think of a few U names-

Ursula
Ulysses
Uriah
Uzziah
Uhura... c'mon NHC, be creative!
i got one... uanus...👍
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on September 14, 2020, 02:30:29 PM
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c0/1d/f5/c01df5f583f3bf9e0ee6935a7f5f99a7.gif)
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on September 15, 2020, 07:10:44 PM
I have a question that may need to be answered after 2020.

Do Greek names get retired?

If Hurricane Epislon runs up the East Coast and causes a lot of damage because it is 2020 does it get retired and if it does a Roman or Arabic name get used in its place? 
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 16, 2020, 08:50:45 AM
We've got a system in the southern Gulf showing a 60% chance of development in 5 days and another off the coast of Africa showing a 50% in 2 days and 70% in 5 days. If both develop that will give us Alpha by the end of the weekend. And we've still got 4 active, named storms on the map, down from yesterday's 5. It's hard to believe what we're seeing with storm formation right now.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: snowdog on September 16, 2020, 11:15:07 AM
Bring on Hurricane Aphrodite...
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on September 16, 2020, 12:07:22 PM
Names from Greek Mythology? I'm in.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: NismoWx on September 16, 2020, 01:20:47 PM
I laughed way too hard at this... (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200916/509789d578f53a7fcebccf41cd7d6f6c.jpg)

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Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: TNHunter on September 16, 2020, 02:15:52 PM
Seems they actually got something right this spring predicting an active tropical season
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: gcbama on September 16, 2020, 02:20:14 PM
I laughed way too hard at this... (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200916/509789d578f53a7fcebccf41cd7d6f6c.jpg)

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o my gosh, maybe not as hard as I laughed LOL!!!!!! I find it so funny!
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 17, 2020, 07:45:54 AM
The system in the southern Gulf is now at 90% chance of development inside of 48 hours, with NHC expecting a north or northeast track by the weekend. This one may be worth watching considering the rapid development we've seen over the Gulf with recent storms.

Also, Teddy is now a hurricane and expected to reach major hurricane status tomorrow. It looks to stay a fish storm. We've been incredibly lucky that so many of these have just taken that right hand turn into the Atlantic and not made their way towards the U.S. As active and destructive as this season has been we really could have had it much worse.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: JKT1987 on September 18, 2020, 09:47:33 AM
With Wilfred being named in the far east ATL this morning....TD 22 will now begin the Greek alphabet once it is classified as a TS. Possible TX threat though the track/intensity is highly uncertain.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: JKT1987 on September 18, 2020, 11:26:46 AM
National Hurricane Center
NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Alpha, located near the coast of Portugal, at 1230 PM AST (1630 UTC).

Well nevermind then. I guess it will be Beta for Texas!
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 18, 2020, 11:45:03 AM
In other news it looks like there's a good chance Teddy plows into Nova Scotia as a hurricane around the middle of next week. When was the last time they had a hurricane warning? This is just a bizarre tropical season.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on September 18, 2020, 04:53:57 PM
Beta in the Gulf.  We might get all the way to like Nu if this continues.  Remember we are only about 55% maybe 60% through the season as the peak is around September 10th.   There is nothing stopping at least 7-9 more named storms by the end of November. 
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 19, 2020, 07:27:42 AM
I have a question that may need to be answered after 2020.

Do Greek names get retired?

If Hurricane Epislon runs up the East Coast and causes a lot of damage because it is 2020 does it get retired and if it does a Roman or Arabic name get used in its place?
I saw the following from WATE in Knoxville this morning:
Quote
If any of the Greek alphabet named storms reach the criteria to be retired, the storms will be retired using the year attached to the Greek alphabet letter, but the actual name itself will still be available for use.

For example, if Subtropical Storm Alpha becomes an intense storm that warrants the name being retired, the name Alpha 2020 will be retired, but Alpha itself will still be available for future storms.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: bugalou on September 19, 2020, 12:01:40 PM
In regard to the naming system for Tropical storms, I am of the opinion it needs to be changed.  Here is my proposal:

Eliminate the Greek alphabet scheme. Then, stop having an exclusive list for every season specifically.  Just release a new list when the previous one is near exhaustion, and then role to A when the old list is done. Also, we shouldn't start over at A, on a new list, at the end of a season, just pick up where we left off from last.  It also fixes the issue with all the beginning lettered names being retired at a higher rate than the back end of the alphabet.  We really gain no scientific benefit by limiting a pool of names season to season.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on September 19, 2020, 05:36:59 PM
In regard to the naming system for Tropical storms, I am of the opinion it needs to be changed.  Here is my proposal:

Eliminate the Greek alphabet scheme. Then, stop having an exclusive list for every season specifically.  Just release a new list when the previous one is near exhaustion, and then role to A when the old list is done. Also, we shouldn't start over at A, on a new list, at the end of a season, just pick up where we left off from last.  It also fixes the issue with all the beginning lettered names being retired at a higher rate than the back end of the alphabet.  We really gain no scientific benefit by limiting a pool of names season to season.

I agree with everything although I do think one list needs to be Greek mythology based.  Not the letters but the actual Greek God and Godesses.  Add the Q's and U's and Z's if you can as well just because a Hurricane Zeus would be need.  A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Uranus would unite this country in memes. 
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on September 24, 2020, 07:42:25 PM
Getting some lightning from the remnants of Beta tonight. Wasnt expecting that. Im also right at 2 of much needed rain.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on September 24, 2020, 09:15:06 PM
Beta is trying its best to make up for Sallys miss last week. 3.50 and its still pouring down.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: JayCee on September 25, 2020, 06:44:36 AM
Even though it will become background noise to all the other events of 2020, east TN observed something as rare as a solar eclipse overnight when it was traversed by it's first tropical system named with a Greek letter.  Considering how rare it is to even see the Greek alphabet used in the Atlantic basin, Beta could be the only one for many decades, if it ever happens again.  Or it could happen next year, as bizarre as the roaring 20's have started.

Although Beta was no "top dog" of the season, it still managed to drop 2.55" of rain here in 24 hours.  It's the heaviest 24 hour rain event IMBY since 4/13.  Thanks, Beta.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on September 25, 2020, 10:46:27 AM
Wound up with 4.35" here. It's the most since the night of the tornado.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on September 28, 2020, 02:51:39 PM
Just got back from a long weekend on Tybee Island, GA. Spotted this sign and thought it might be appreciated:
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on October 02, 2020, 07:44:14 PM
We've got Gamma in the Gulf, probably going somewhere into Mexico.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: ryandourius on October 03, 2020, 05:55:01 PM
We've got Gamma in the Gulf, probably going somewhere into Mexico.

More concerned with the one forecast to form behind Gamma.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on October 03, 2020, 06:06:16 PM
More concerned with the one forecast to form behind Gamma.
I agree, that's one to watch closely.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on October 04, 2020, 07:27:14 AM
Projections for that area of disturbance below Cuba have jumped up to a 70% chance of development in 2 days and 80% within 5 days. I'm not seeing anything yet on the possibility of a track that would bring it towards a landfall, and it's really too early for anything to be reliable, but we'll almost definitely have Delta by mid-week.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on October 19, 2020, 08:42:37 AM
TD27, probably future Hurricane Epsilon, is now active in the Atlantic. Early forecasts are saying it isn't a threat to the U.S., but it is headed East/Northeast. Maybe a future nor'easter for the northeast rather than a tropical landfall?
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on October 20, 2020, 06:30:37 AM
NHC now has a forecast cone out for Epsilon and it should hang a right and stay out to sea. That's good news after so many storms making landfall this year. Will this be our last named storm of the season?
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on October 20, 2020, 06:52:48 AM
The season continues for another month until the end of November. It may slow down out in the Atlantic, but I wouldnt rule out something still popping in the Caribbean.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on October 24, 2020, 12:16:28 PM
The season continues for another month until the end of November. It may slow down out in the Atlantic, but I wouldnt rule out something still popping in the Caribbean.
Guess what? 95L in the Caribbean has a 90% chance of development. Seems like yet another threat for the northern Gulf coast. Probably wont be strong due to water temps, but it may bring more rain to our area by late next week.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on October 25, 2020, 07:33:22 AM
Looks like Zeta is going to be a hurricane, and forecasts are starting to show heavy rain for East TN on Wednesday and Thursday.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: JayCee on October 25, 2020, 10:02:04 AM
Since September 1st, I've recorded nearly 8.5" of rain, making it the wettest autumn here in the last 5 years.  However, nearly all of that rain was connected with tropical systems coming out of the Gulf.  Take those away, and it would've been extremely dry, similar to the trend of hot, dry autumns we've experienced as of late.  Considering the fires ravaging multiple states in the west, I'm grateful our fire season may be a non-event this year thanks to the hyper-active tropics. 
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on October 26, 2020, 09:12:02 PM
GFS is pretty crazy with continuing activity in the tropics over the next 2 weeks. Several separate systems. Another gyre storm next weekend.