Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Tropical Spin Zone => Topic started by: Thundersnow on April 03, 2020, 10:39:57 AM

Title: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on April 03, 2020, 10:39:57 AM
An active season is expected this year.

“A total of 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes are expected this season.
This is above the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.”

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-04-01-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-april-outlook
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: schneitzeit on April 03, 2020, 12:28:04 PM
An active season is expected this year.

“A total of 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes are expected this season.
This is above the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.”

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-04-01-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-april-outlook

Greeaaaaat. The last thing this country needs is a destructive hurricane season with billions of dollars in damages.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on April 03, 2020, 12:41:50 PM
We can't take any natural disasters of any kind for at least the next year. We need these storms to remain fish storms. Also, all fault lines need to sit still.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: NashRugger on April 03, 2020, 03:36:37 PM
We'll see what the developing El niño has to say.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BRUCE on April 03, 2020, 03:50:46 PM
We'll see what the developing El niño has to say.
more rain n flooding what it will say ...
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on May 13, 2020, 05:38:34 AM
We have a chance at the season's first tropical or subtropical storm forming off the southeast coast in the next few days. If it evolves into a named system it will be Arthur.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: gcbama on May 13, 2020, 11:56:32 AM
Hey all, when was the last time we had inland tropical storm warnings/advisories in our area....I seem to remember early to mid 2000's we had one here in middle Tennessee I think maybe Katrina? I was fascinated by it when it happened
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Mister2011 on May 13, 2020, 12:46:44 PM
Hey all, when was the last time we had inland tropical storm warnings/advisories in our area....I seem to remember early to mid 2000's we had one here in middle Tennessee I think maybe Katrina? I was fascinated by it when it happened

Katrina appears to be the last time on an almost state wide basis, west TN had some tropical storm warnings from Dennis during the summer of 2005. Appears TN had a bunch of Tropical Storm warnings and damage in Sept 16 and 17 2004, but can't really find what system that was associated with

Had some Topical Depression warnings in west TN from Ike in 2008 as well

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/choosedates.jsp?statefips=47%2CTENNESSEE
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on May 13, 2020, 01:38:08 PM
Katrina appears to be the last time on an almost state wide basis, west TN had some tropical storm warnings from Dennis during the summer of 2005. Appears TN had a bunch of Tropical Storm warnings and damage in Sept 16 and 17 2004, but can't really find what system that was associated with

Had some Topical Depression warnings in west TN from Ike in 2008 as well

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/choosedates.jsp?statefips=47%2CTENNESSEE
I’m pretty sure I was under one for Hurricane Michael. It was either Michael or Irma.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on May 13, 2020, 02:42:39 PM
I’m pretty sure I was under one for Hurricane Michael. It was either Michael or Irma.

Irma (2017) had Franklin, Lincoln, and Moore Counties under a Tropical Storm Warning.   
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on May 13, 2020, 04:25:31 PM
Hey all, when was the last time we had inland tropical storm warnings/advisories in our area....I seem to remember early to mid 2000's we had one here in middle Tennessee I think maybe Katrina? I was fascinated by it when it happened

I could've sworn I was under one when Opal came through Chattanooga in 95'.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on May 15, 2020, 10:24:54 AM
NOAA is saying that what is now Invest 90L off the coast of Florida has an 80% chance of development in the next 48 hours.  It looks like it will stay a fish storm, but these can cause rough surf and offshore conditions for the southeast coast, which will be a concern for those who are venturing out for vacations right now.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on May 17, 2020, 07:46:27 AM
Parts of NC are now under a tropical storm warning for impacts from Arthur even though it is projected to stay offshore. That puts our first mainland tropical system impact this year before the official start of hurricane season.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: TNHunter on May 17, 2020, 08:41:19 AM
Parts of NC are now under a tropical storm warning for impacts from Arthur even though it is projected to stay offshore. That puts our first mainland tropical system impact this year before the official start of hurricane season.

I don’t keep up with tropical weather very well but it seems the last few years there is often a tropical system close to Memorial wknd.  Then after that it goes dead awhile it seems
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on May 26, 2020, 07:51:44 AM
Long range GFS has a tropical storm/low end hurricane coming off the Yucatan Peninsula and landfalling along the Florida west coast.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on May 26, 2020, 07:56:39 AM
Long range GFS has a tropical storm/low end hurricane coming off the Yucatan Peninsula and landfalling along the Florida west coast.
Let's hope this is just the GFS being the GFS and we don't get a landfalling storm.  My gosh, we don't need more natural disasters (after the flooding in Michigan) on top of everything else our country has faced in 2020. 

I realize based on season projections my hope isn't rational as we should see an above average season this year, but we can still hope for a lucky break.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on May 26, 2020, 07:59:19 AM
Let's hope this is just the GFS being the GFS and we don't get a landfalling storm.  My gosh, we don't need more natural disasters (after the flooding in Michigan) on top of everything else our country has faced in 2020. 

I realize based on season projections my hope isn't rational as we should see an above average season this year, but we can still hope for a lucky break.

This the year of Murphy's Law I'm afraid. Anything that can go wrong, will lol. I certainly don't want anymore natural disasters. This country cannot handle that right now. This would be incredibly poor timing as well for my friends that just moved from Denver to Tampa.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on May 27, 2020, 07:24:06 AM
We have Tropical Storm Bertha right off the coast of South Carolina expected to move into South Carolina between Charleston and Georgetown, SC. 

That is 2 before June 1st.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on May 27, 2020, 07:33:59 AM
We have Tropical Storm Bertha right off the coast of South Carolina expected to move into South Carolina between Charleston and Georgetown, SC. 

That is 2 before June 1st.

Quote
This the year of Murphy's Law I'm afraid.
- mamMATTus

My gosh our country needs to catch a lucky break soon.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on May 27, 2020, 03:38:39 PM
Really wild looking radar again over the SE US today with Bertha making landfall and interacting with the large closed low over the lower MS valley.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: wfrogge on May 28, 2020, 08:28:52 AM
Let's hope this is just the GFS being the GFS and we don't get a landfalling storm.  My gosh, we don't need more natural disasters (after the flooding in Michigan) on top of everything else our country has faced in 2020. 

I realize based on season projections my hope isn't rational as we should see an above average season this year, but we can still hope for a lucky break.

Its still showing up on the GFS and now on the GDPS, and ECMWF. With no real flow to push things along my fear is we will get a system that just sits and spins in one spot for days like we are seeing with the ULL systems over TX/AR/LA/TN/MS right now
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on May 29, 2020, 06:47:48 PM
NHC is showing 40-60% development chances for two different areas, one in the mid Atlantic and the other on the Pacific side of Central America. The one near Central America is being watched to potentially cross into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. Pretty active pattern to watch for so early in the year.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BRUCE on May 31, 2020, 08:10:02 AM
ensembles starting to show a gulf coast landing hurricane within 10 days... most point toward the Louisiana coast line... ::coffee::
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BeetleChe13 on June 01, 2020, 08:53:03 AM
NHC this morning showing an 80% chance that Invest 93L/Remnants of Amanda will develop into a tropical system in the next 48 hours. Some models show it staying near the coast and re-entering the Pacific (which would be pretty unique), but most show it developing into a hurricane and hitting Louisana or northern part of Texas coast. Almost all of the models show it spinning in the Bay of Campeche for a couple of days first. Off to an active start.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: gcbama on June 01, 2020, 03:07:59 PM
this gulf system is def one to watch very intently
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on June 02, 2020, 05:54:38 AM
Jim Cantore is getting on board with the Gulf system. Early spaghetti models are favoring Texas but plenty of lines also go farther East to landfall in Louisiana. We may have a storm to actively track in a few days.

EDIT: We officially have TD3 now in the Gulf. NHC expects it to strengthen into TS Cristobal by later today.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Nash_LSU on June 02, 2020, 04:40:45 PM
Looking like there's the potential for a pretty decent rainmaker in the TN and OH valleys about a week out if this storm tracks west of us as currently modeled. 

I'm always weary to see Nola on the east side of a storm. Their pump situation is dubious on a good day, and the past couple months have been anything but good days. I used to work closely with S&WB when I lived there and I can almost guarantee they haven't been doing any of the needed maintenance the past couple of months to get the system ready for hurricane season. Local rumor mill is that some of the pumps are already on backup power because some power units are down.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on June 02, 2020, 04:48:31 PM
As expected we have an official Tropical Storm now, Cristobal. June 2 and we're already on our third named storm of the season. That doesn't necessarily predict a season as active as what's predicted but it does start checking the boxes on the number of named storms for the year. This far out I hope the whole Gulf coast is paying attention until we get a better idea of where this thing is going and how strong it will be when it gets there. With so much on the news already I'm afraid weather, even severe weather and hurricanes, may go under-reported and put people in danger.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on June 03, 2020, 06:43:51 AM
Right now it looks like we'll have a high-end TS impacting the Gulf coast by Sunday/Monday. The potential landfall right now is somewhere from Houston to Alabama, but it's expected to have much more activity to the east than the west of the core so heavy rain and wind may go a long way from landfall.

Local forecasts aren't picking up on the impacts for Tennessee yet, but if we continue to sit in between the steering high pressure areas I won't be surprised to see it move inland and drench parts or all of the state since more precipitation will be east of the storm track. With rivers and lakes high already this may be one to watch for us, and especially for impacts on a still flooded Mississippi River.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 08, 2020, 07:06:05 AM
It's unlikely to turn into much but NHC is showing a 60% chance of development with the system off the Carolina coast at the moment. It should put down heavy rain from the Carolinas all the way to New England in the next few days.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 09, 2020, 08:45:09 PM
While the impact should thankfully be minimal, TS Fay is the earliest F named storm on record. It's been relatively quiet in terms of damage so far but this has been a busy hurricane season already.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 21, 2020, 02:51:06 PM
There's a good chance of a tropical system, either storm or depression, forming in the Gulf in the next few days. It will probably be just a Texas/Louisiana impact with nothing coming into our area, but if it ends up a named storm it would add to the active season total so far. And also, it's something actually weather related to distract us from the non-weather things happening in the world.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 22, 2020, 09:35:55 AM
Completely different than the expected tropical development in the Gulf we suddenly have TS Gonzalo out in the Atlantic. It's way too early to reasonably discuss track or intensity at this point but by the weekend we may possibly have two named systems active.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on July 22, 2020, 01:54:00 PM
Here's the current forecast track for Gonzalo

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL072020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144224_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)

Note- this is the earliest on record for a G-named storm.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on July 22, 2020, 02:00:34 PM
The H-storm looks to follow in the Gulf.   
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 22, 2020, 02:08:13 PM
Here's the current forecast track for Gonzalo

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL072020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144224_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)

Note- this is the earliest on record for a G-named storm.
Thanks for posting this. It's still way out but the early track certainly looks like the classic path to come into the Gulf and blow up over warm water. I don't even want to think about the disruption right now if a major Hurricane prompts a large scale evacuation. We have to get a break in 2020 sooner or later, right?
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 23, 2020, 07:09:39 AM
Gonzalo should be a hurricane by tomorrow morning, but will likely weaken again once it starts interacting with land as it crosses the Windward Islands and then gets into Haiti/DR. The track still looks to eventually bring it into the Gulf, and once it's in that bathwater who knows?
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on July 23, 2020, 07:32:41 AM
00z GFS has a landfalling Gonzalo as a tropical storm hitting New Orleans around August 7th. I feel like this is almost a best case scenario with Gulf bathwater. I'll take this with a grain of salt.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 23, 2020, 11:30:41 AM
We've now got Tropical Storm Watches across most of the Texas coast for what is currently TD8.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on July 23, 2020, 12:08:02 PM
I wonder if Gonzalo ends up in Central America. The 5 day out look keeps it way far south, well south of Jamaica, even. It could certainly make a turn into the southern Gulf beyond that though.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: schneitzeit on July 24, 2020, 05:29:31 AM
The system in the Gulf is now Tropical Storm Hanna, expected to make landfall in southern Texas and Tamaulipas.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on July 24, 2020, 07:20:57 AM
Hanna is trending away from Matagorda Bay and more towards Deep South TX or even the border.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: schneitzeit on July 24, 2020, 07:59:26 AM
I wonder if Gonzalo ends up in Central America. The 5 day out look keeps it way far south, well south of Jamaica, even. It could certainly make a turn into the southern Gulf beyond that though.

It's very far south right now- parallel with Venezuela!
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 24, 2020, 09:01:34 AM
After record early 6th and 7th named storms of the season TS Hanna is the earliest ever H storm. We've also got a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa that's being watched. Weather is thankfully pretty calm for us locally but there's going to be lots to watch in the tropics for a while.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on July 24, 2020, 05:26:43 PM
Hanna is now forecast to make landfall just south of Corpus Christi as a CAT 1 Hurricane, which is not what that area needed especially since that area is one of the hardest hit areas currently in the world due to COVID-19.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: schneitzeit on July 24, 2020, 06:22:07 PM
I did not know that about the disease.

I saw the track has been revised to make landfall smack into SE Texas and then curve south across the border into Nuevo León and Coahuila.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on July 25, 2020, 08:03:07 AM
The good news about Hanna is it will make landfall in that no mans land area between Corpus and Brownsville that will be the worst of the winds.

Surge will be a concern for Corpus Christi.  Heavy rain, flooding, and tropical storm forced winds in very COVID-19 hard hit TX/MX border areas.   
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on July 27, 2020, 09:28:42 AM
I guess that's just a large MCV over lower LA this morning? Certainly looks like a tropical system. . .
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on July 28, 2020, 03:04:50 PM
The long term forecast cone of what will probably be TS Isaias by tonight most likely comes into FL as a tropical storm on Sunday, with a possibility of the coast of Georgia or South Carolina if it gets out to the eastern side of the forecast cone. Of course this many days out Sunday could be anything from sunny to a major hurricane somewhere between Mexico and New England, but it does seem worth watching to see how it develops.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Matthew on July 28, 2020, 06:57:58 PM
The long term forecast cone of what will probably be TS Isaias by tonight most likely comes into FL as a tropical storm on Sunday, with a possibility of the coast of Georgia or South Carolina if it gets out to the eastern side of the forecast cone. Of course this many days out Sunday could be anything from sunny to a major hurricane somewhere between Mexico and New England, but it does seem worth watching to see how it develops.
I have a niece in TB.  She bought lots of extra supplies before season started expecting it to be a bad season.  Hopefully it goes ots.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: StormNine on July 28, 2020, 07:29:40 PM
Land interaction and model-chaos combine to form the lowest confidence forecast of the season.  This thing could get sheared out over Puerto Rico or the Domincan Republic or somehow avoid most of the land and come out a hurricane where the answers lie between Gulf Coast impact, Florida impact, or Bahamas and then fish impact.   
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on July 29, 2020, 10:45:29 PM
And just like that Isaias formed and then started to take the right hand path and ride the Gulf Stream.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: gcbama on July 30, 2020, 08:27:35 AM
And just like that Isaias formed and then started to take the right hand path and ride the Gulf Stream.

we have had a few of these in the past few years they just ride right along the east coast of florida about 30 miles offshore, always interesting to see
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: mamMATTus on August 05, 2020, 11:22:23 AM
Fantasy Forecasts are now making the rounds for a system in the Gulf around the 20th at 300hrs+. Spann has already put out a disclaimer warning not to trust these social media posts.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 05, 2020, 06:24:43 PM
Fantasy Forecasts are now making the rounds for a system in the Gulf around the 20th at 300hrs+. Spann has already put out a disclaimer warning not to trust these social media posts.
Way out there in fantasy land but what a monster.  ::faint::
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: cgauxknox on August 05, 2020, 06:29:41 PM
It looks like we'll have plenty to talk about in the next couple of months. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BRUCE on August 06, 2020, 11:48:07 AM
 ::wow::
It looks like we'll have plenty to talk about in the next couple of months. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast
::wow::
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: dwagner88 on August 06, 2020, 03:17:43 PM
we have had a few of these in the past few years they just ride right along the east coast of florida about 30 miles offshore, always interesting to see
I have a theory that the SE coastline is shaped the way it is because this is a frequent storm path. Over several thousand years, a curve has been eroded into the coast along FL, GA, SC and NC.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: Thundersnow on August 06, 2020, 03:29:39 PM
I have a theory that the SE coastline is shaped the way it is because this is a frequent storm path. Over several thousand years, a curve has been eroded into the coast along FL, GA, SC and NC.

I've had the very same thought. On the other hand, maybe the shape of the coastline causes the storms to turn as they tend to do there.
Title: Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
Post by: BRUCE on August 06, 2020, 04:21:11 PM
I have a theory that the SE coastline is shaped the way it is because this is a frequent storm path. Over several thousand years, a curve has been eroded into the coast along FL, GA, SC and NC.
fact... I read that somewhere.