Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: NismoWx on March 24, 2020, 11:49:37 AM

Title: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2020, 11:49:37 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630_prt.gif)


(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn_prt.gif)


Quote
Day 1 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

   Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will be
   focused this afternoon and evening across the Tennessee Valley.

   ...TN Valley this afternoon/evening...
   A midlevel shortwave trough over AR/MO this morning will move
   eastward to the TN Valley by this evening, as an associated surface
   cyclone in OK develops eastward along a rain-reinforced boundary
   near the southern TN border.  Along and south of this surface
   boundary, dewpoints will remain in the mid 60s through the
   afternoon, beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km per 12z
   soundings.  The net result with daytime heating in cloud breaks will
   be moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) within the warm sector,
   in advance of the surface cyclone/midlevel trough.

   In the wake of the elevated convection this morning, additional
   thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon in the
   vicinity of southwestern TN/northern MS, south of the ongoing
   elevated storms in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet over
   northeast AR.  Storms will subsequently spread eastward across
   northern AL and southern middle TN through the evening.  Strong
   deep-layer vertical shear with long hodographs and effective bulk
   shear of 50-60 kt, as well as low-level hodograph curvature with 0-1
   km SRH near 200 m2/s2, will favor supercells.  Low-level shear could
   be enhanced some along the residual rain-cooled boundary that will
   likely shift northward into southern middle TN by mid afternoon.
   Farther south, some vertical mixing of moisture could introduce
   somewhat larger (15-20 F) temperature-dewpoint spreads from central
   MS into central AL this afternoon.  Thus, the most favorable
   corridor for tornadic storms will be in the zone of greater
   low-level shear and retained low-level moisture near the rain-cooled
   boundary, closer to the TN border this afternoon/evening.  The
   favorable near-storm environment, in combination with an expected
   discrete/cluster storm mode, may support a strong tornado or two.

   ..Thompson/Moore.. 03/24/2020
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 12:12:00 PM
am I wrong or is there very little north movement of warm front....I don't even think it has passed the tn/al border based on dew points?
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2020, 12:22:00 PM
am I wrong or is there very little north movement of warm front....I don't even think it has passed the tn/al border based on dew points?

Not yet.  Once the surface low moves out of the Ozarks, it'll pull it northward.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 12:48:36 PM
scattered showers all over the place in southern tn....by the time system gets here I don't see how we could destabilize enough for a supercell event....of course I am no meteorologist so I stand to be corrected lol
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: schneitzeit on March 24, 2020, 01:10:43 PM
Is it a myth that sixty degree Fahrenheit temperatures are too cool for severe storms?
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2020, 01:16:53 PM
Is it a myth that sixty degree Fahrenheit temperatures are too cool for severe storms?

Oh yes- I think the temp was right around there on the night of March 2-3 when that supercell raked across Middle TN...
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: schneitzeit on March 24, 2020, 01:18:07 PM
Oh yes- I think the temp was right around there on the night of March 2-3 when that supercell raked across Middle TN...

Wild, wild weather. It's strange to have severe wx in the mix today when it looks and feels like February outside.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 01:21:36 PM
but you do have to have some cape
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: wmp600 on March 24, 2020, 01:25:11 PM
Is this band coming through west Tennessee now, the second wave they have been talking about which is supposed to produce the severe weather?
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2020, 01:31:05 PM
Is this band coming through west Tennessee now, the second wave they have been talking about which is supposed to produce the severe weather?

This isn't round 2.  I think this is just a batch of elevated convection.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 01:35:57 PM
This isn't round 2.  I think this is just a batch of elevated convection.

if it keeps up though and moves into mid tn it will inhibit destabilization I would think
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2020, 01:39:47 PM
if it keeps up though and moves into mid tn it will inhibit destabilization I would think
But it also could leave a boundary for fuel.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2020, 01:47:16 PM
if it keeps up though and moves into mid tn it will inhibit destabilization I would think

Yes....

But it also could leave a boundary for fuel.

....and yes.

However, the biggest severe threat is slated to be south of I-40 so I don't think this little batch of elevated convection (it's still well north of the warm front) will do much harm to the overall plan.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 02:09:08 PM
interesting at 2pm there isn't a mesoscale discussion for our area yet
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on March 24, 2020, 02:13:41 PM
interesting at 2pm there isn't a mesoscale discussion for our area yet
yeah. I just checked that myself ... agree
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on March 24, 2020, 02:17:20 PM
interesting at 2pm there isn't a mesoscale discussion for our area yet
There was one a couple hours ago and the over all situation discussed back then hasn't substantially changed.

Also, not every watch gets a MD from the SPC, especially if it is the same area was covered by an earlier conversation.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 02:18:00 PM
looks to me like could just be a day it doesn't pan out for severe weather, lots of showery weather in west tn moving quickly east and air is not that unstable yet Ö.looks to me like north ms and alabama stand the best chance at seeing the rough stuff potentially but again I am NO meteorologist, just seeing the trend
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on March 24, 2020, 02:30:45 PM
Already several showers in SW TN and N MS are showing subtle signs of rotation.

It really won't take much to fully tap into the environment aloft and strengthen significantly. That said, I expect only a small number of supercells to be truly dangerous, owing to consolidation and some cells having true microscale ingredients to aid them further.

I honestly would NOT want to be in the HSV metro later this evening.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 02:33:34 PM
Already several showers in SW TN and N MS are showing subtle signs of rotation.

It really won't take much to fully tap into the environment aloft and strengthen significantly. That said, I expect only a small number of supercells to be truly dangerous, owing to consolidation and some cells having true microscale ingredients to aid them further.

I honestly would NOT want to be in the HSV metro later this evening.

I concur, north alabama will get it the worst, if it ends up happening possibly some in southern tn as well, but north alabama could get it pretty rough
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2020, 02:36:49 PM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0228.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0234 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2020



AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO MIDDLE

TENNESSEE...NORTHESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA



CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY



VALID 241934Z - 242130Z



PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT



SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE

DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  BY 5-7 PM CDT, THIS PROBABLY WILL

INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES,

PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTHEAST OF TUPELO MS INTO AREAS NEAR AND

NORTHWEST OF MUSCLE SHOALS AL, HUNTSVILLE AL AND THE SHELBYVILLE,

TULLAHOMA AREA OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.



DISCUSSION...AS ONE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES TO

PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH, TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,

THE EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER (70+ KT AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO DIG

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ARK-LA-TEX THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY

23-00Z.  AS THIS OCCURS, WEAK TO MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS

APPEAR LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER, ALONG

AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE NOW NEAR/JUST NORTH OF MEMPHIS

TN, MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE AL.



INSOLATION AND SURFACE DEW POINT INCREASES THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S

APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000

J/KG, WITH REMAINING INHIBITION BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE.

IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT IS

BECOMING CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,

INCLUDING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  WHILE THE FRONT MAY BECOME A FOCUS

FOR THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL

DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS

EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AT LEAST MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE REDEVELOPS EASTWARD FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN

ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS

WILL BECOME MOST CONDUCIVE TO TORNADIC SUPERCELLS NEAR/NORTHEAST OF

TUPELO MS, INTO THE MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE TN VICINITIES, AND

AREAS NEAR/WEST OF TULLAHOMA TN BY 5-7 PM CDT.  THIS WILL INCLUDE

POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.



..KERR/THOMPSON.. 03/24/2020

Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2020, 02:38:55 PM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0228.gif)

Being in Boro thatís a little to close for my comfort.  Move south please!  Or just fizzle!
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 02:44:11 PM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0228.gif)

agreed, as we were saying farther southern tn ( my area) and north alabama look to be in the firing line
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2020, 02:47:11 PM
Going to split some of this off to an event thread... stand by.

EDIT: Done. Please continue to discuss today's risk here.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 03:02:07 PM
the air in middle lewis county has definitely become unstable in the last hour, you can feel the humidity out there now
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2020, 03:06:19 PM
TORNADO WATCH for most of Mid TN, south of I-40 in effect until 10pm
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2020, 03:11:22 PM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0061_radar.gif)

Quote
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 61
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   305 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of
     Northern Alabama
     Northeastern Mississippi
     The southern half of western and middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected in the next
   couple of hours from western Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi
   into northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.  The storm
   environment will be favorable for tornadoes, including a strong
   tornado or two, in addition to damaging winds and large hail.
   Storms will spread eastward through late evening.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Huntsville AL to 55
   miles south southwest of Muscle Shoals AL. For a complete depiction
   of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU1).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

Post Merge: March 24, 2020, 03:14:27 PM
Experience says- always watch that Wayne/Lawrence/Giles County corridor this time of year.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2020, 03:16:44 PM
Dang some high probs
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2020, 03:19:08 PM
Cells like the one that just popped up in N AL are the ones that bear watching. It did not exist just a few minutes ago, and it already has the classic supercell "shape" although it's still fairly small.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 03:24:26 PM
Cells like the one that just popped up in N AL are the ones that bear watching. It did not exist just a few minutes ago, and it already has the classic supercell "shape" although it's still fairly small.

that one over tupelo as well it looks very nasty with hook forming on the west side traveling northeast

Post Merge: March 24, 2020, 03:35:42 PM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0061_radar.gif)

Post Merge: March 24, 2020, 03:14:27 PM
Experience says- always watch that Wayne/Lawrence/Giles County corridor this time of year.

Yep Waynesboro, Loretto , Pulaski area
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2020, 03:37:36 PM
Cells like the one that just popped up in N AL are the ones that bear watching. It did not exist just a few minutes ago, and it already has the classic supercell "shape" although it's still fairly small.
Courtesey of HUN... (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200324/b47fb846cb59c5f8d68cb7d78f6d3fa1.jpg)


Aaaand it's gone.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk



Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on March 24, 2020, 03:43:05 PM
The cell I have my eyes on first is approaching Fulton, MS. It is clearly rotating and has a terrific, in contaminated environment to its south and east for inflow.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 03:50:05 PM
storms having a hard time growing and reaching severe limits now, I think dynamics will come together a little later in the watch time near 65 corridor?
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2020, 03:59:04 PM
Breaks in clouds and sun in and out in Smyrna.  May not matter.  Seems some debris showers is working into area. 
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 04:19:05 PM
as quickly as these cells form and ramp up, they fizzle out.....weather is so interesting

Post Merge: March 24, 2020, 04:40:52 PM
cell about 15 minutes west of me seems to be ramping up in perry county

Post Merge: March 24, 2020, 04:42:23 PM
wayne county as well, it seems to have a clear hook?
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2020, 04:52:07 PM
Yeah- Wayne County cell bears watching... looks like a hail core popping, probably needs a SVR soon.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 04:54:56 PM
Yeah- Wayne County cell bears watching... looks like a hail core popping, probably needs a SVR soon.

idk how it isn't warned already?
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2020, 04:55:42 PM
Special statement so far-

Quote
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
450 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

TNZ056-058-093-094-242215-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Lewis TN-Perry TN-
450 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LEWIS...NORTHERN WAYNE...
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 450 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Olive Hill, or 9 miles west of Waynesboro, moving
east at 65 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hohenwald, Waynesboro, Flatwoods, Gordonsburg, Kimmins and
Henryville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: c_phillips on March 24, 2020, 04:59:52 PM
It is warned now. I am about to leave work in Columbia and make a beeline home to Lawrenceburg. Should be an interesting drive.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 05:00:25 PM
It is warned now. I am about to leave work in Columbia and make a beeline home to Lawrenceburg. Should be an interesting drive.

Oh gosh be careful....its moving 60mph east
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: andyhb on March 24, 2020, 05:01:17 PM
Got a bad feeling about that Wayne County storm.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2020, 05:02:59 PM
I think Waynesboro just got walloped by significant hail.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: c_phillips on March 24, 2020, 05:05:53 PM
Tune in to 97.5 out of Lawrenceburg for live radio coverage from a pretty good met.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 05:06:10 PM
Got a bad feeling about that Wayne County storm.

i agree been nervous on that one for a bit too
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2020, 05:06:41 PM
Wayne Co storm doing its best to rotate.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2020, 05:09:01 PM
It's hard to get a great read on it because of its distance from the nearest radar site.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 05:09:25 PM
Wayne Co storm doing its best to rotate.

yep clearly rotating
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on March 24, 2020, 05:11:27 PM
What's going to be interesting is how it'll interact with these approaching cells in Lawrence & Giles Counties and how/if they'll affect the updraft.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 24, 2020, 05:15:34 PM
guess there is not as much wind energy aloft as expected yet to bring more warnings, wayne storm the only one warned in the watch
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on March 24, 2020, 05:20:56 PM
guess there is not as much wind energy aloft as expected yet to bring more warnings, wayne storm the only one warned in the watch
There is another SVR warned cell in NE MS, with several other cells in MS really starting to consolidate and get their acts together. This is just getting started.

This cell in NE MS has decent mid-level rotation.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: BRUCE on March 24, 2020, 05:22:22 PM
guess there is not as much wind energy aloft as expected yet to bring more warnings, wayne storm the only one warned in the watch
these storms thus far having hard time getting rooted to the ground, rotation has been mainly elevated appears ::coffee::
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2020, 05:22:47 PM
There is another SVR warned cell in NE MS, with several other cells in MS really starting to consolidate and get their acts together. This is just getting started.

This cell in NE MS has decent mid-level rotation.

TOR Warning coming for that one. Brett Adair is on it.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2020, 05:26:16 PM
Looks like the storm north of Lawrenceburg is separating into 2 storms
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on March 24, 2020, 05:27:04 PM
Rotation has rapidly increased and is headed directly for Tishomingo.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2020, 05:29:52 PM
TOR Giles Lawrence
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2020, 05:30:13 PM
Warning for Lawrenceburg
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2020, 05:30:42 PM
Rotation has rapidly increased and is headed directly for Tishomingo.

That one looks like a serious concern.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2020, 05:31:28 PM
One sw of Columbia needs to be watched

Post Merge: March 24, 2020, 05:33:33 PM
Seems many are coming together
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2020, 05:36:10 PM
Brett Adair just reported large tornado on the ground, Tishomingo MS.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2020, 05:37:19 PM
ď At 534 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
  over Tishomingo, or near Tishomingo State Park, moving east at 40
  mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Ē
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on March 24, 2020, 05:37:36 PM
HSV has warned that same cell for southern Colbert County.

Now also has a CC drop confirmed.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on March 24, 2020, 05:39:01 PM
TDS Tishomingo

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2020, 05:39:59 PM
Watching on his live feed.  They are stuck.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on March 24, 2020, 05:49:40 PM
Tornado has likely cycled as velocities have come down a good bit and the CC is expanding to the NNE, showing debris falling in the forward flank downdraft. Had to be a fairly intense tornado to produce that type of signature.

Of course I said that and HSV fires this, which I'm not sure is warranted at this point now given velocity signature.

Quote
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
543 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ALLSBORO...MYNOT...MAUD...AND REDROCK!!!

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Colbert County in northwestern Alabama...

* Until 615 PM CDT.

* At 541 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was
  observed near Tishomingo State Park, moving east at 45 mph.

  TORNADO EMERGENCY for ALLSBORO...MYNOT...MAUD...AND REDROCK!!!
  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2020, 05:58:47 PM
Iím thinking from Lawrenceburg to Huntsville is the tornado threat.  Above Lawrenceburg should be fine
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on March 24, 2020, 06:00:59 PM
Iím thinking from Lawrenceburg to Huntsville is the tornado threat.  Above Lawrenceburg should be fine
That basically does match the ENHANCED risk verbatim.

Post Merge: March 24, 2020, 06:15:10 PM
Cell in northern Itawamba County, MS is consolidating its rotation very quickly NE of Mantachie.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2020, 06:26:53 PM
Looks like two areas of broad rotation trying to do something now....one over Petersburg and one just south of Shelbyville.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on March 24, 2020, 06:36:25 PM
The southern TOR warned cell just crossed over into AL and it looks nasty. It has everything going for it with regards to being the southernmost cell and moving into higher helicity.

Quote
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
629 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Franklin County in northwestern Alabama...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 629 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Red Bay, moving east at 40 mph.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2020, 06:40:39 PM
Watching the Lynchburg/Moore Co storm closely. It is really trying to get its act together again the last couple of scans.


Edit: Just warned.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: VandyMachine on March 24, 2020, 07:22:10 PM
Watching the Lynchburg/Moore Co storm closely. It is really trying to get its act together again the last couple of scans.


Edit: Just warned.

And it did I am afraid...
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NashRugger on March 24, 2020, 07:22:32 PM
Radar confirmed tornado over Sewanee.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on March 24, 2020, 07:24:02 PM
That's the same cell that was warned over Lawrence Co earlier.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: dwagner88 on March 25, 2020, 04:49:17 PM
Did we have any confirmed touchdowns from that nasty cell around Lynchburg to Sewanee? It was rotating like crazy on radar.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: Eric on March 25, 2020, 05:46:47 PM
Did we have any confirmed touchdowns from that nasty cell around Lynchburg to Sewanee? It was rotating like crazy on radar.

EF1 confirmed. I think.
Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: NismoWx on March 26, 2020, 06:11:20 PM
Franklin/Grundy County line. Unsure how many more surveys are pending. This is HUN's territory, not OHX. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200326/664a738fe29e898a8a9e267e83ff5479.jpg)

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Title: Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
Post by: gcbama on March 26, 2020, 09:06:43 PM
Franklin/Grundy County line. Unsure how many more surveys are pending. This is HUN's territory, not OHX. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200326/664a738fe29e898a8a9e267e83ff5479.jpg)

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that's actually a pretty decent track length almost 5 miles