Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => TNWx Vault of Fame and Infamy => Topic started by: Thundersnow on February 29, 2020, 06:32:16 AM

Title: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on February 29, 2020, 06:32:16 AM
Making the call to go ahead and kick off a thread. This will obviously exasperate the ongoing issue of high-running rivers in the region.

Hydrologic outlook from OHX:

Quote
Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
446 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

...Heavy Rain and Flooding Possible Sunday Night through
Wednesday...

Significantly above normal rainfall amounts have been
experienced across Middle Tennessee this year. As of this
morning, Nashville International Airport is around 8 inches above
normal and Crossville Memorial Airport is more than 9 inches
above normal.

The next wave of potentially heavy rainfall will be from Sunday
night through Wednesday of next week. It looks like the heaviest
bands of rainfall could produce five to seven inches of rainfall,
but there is still a significant amount of uncertainty where that
band will set up. For other locations across the mid state, at
least 2 to 3 inches of rainfall accumulation during this time
frame is expected. The bulk of this rainfall is expected Tuesday
into Tuesday night.

These forecast rainfall amounts, combined with already saturated
ground conditions, will likely lead to flooding along rivers,
creeks, streams, roadways, low lying areas, and other poor
drainage locations by Tuesday evening and last through the rest of
the week.

Residents throughout Middle Tennessee should continue to closely
monitor latest forecasts concerning heavy rainfall and flood
potential this weekend. For latest forecast updates and river
forecasts, visit our website at weather.gov/nashville.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: cgauxknox on February 29, 2020, 06:51:26 AM
MRX:
Quote
A slow moving weather system will begin to affect the region
Monday with rain spreading into the area. Tuesday and Wednesday
will see continued rainfall, some potentially heavy. There could
be flooding across the area by midweek, especially where the
heaviest rains are expected over the Cumberland Plateau, southeast
Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: cliftown04 on February 29, 2020, 07:18:49 AM
Once again it will be very interesting to see where those heavy rain bands set up. It is always interesting to me the media coverage a dusting of snow can get, but flooding threats seem ho-hum. I think it will take very little rain in a short amount of time to get local creeks out of their banks once again.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on February 29, 2020, 07:29:35 AM
Once again it will be very interesting to see where those heavy rain bands set up. It is always interesting to me the media coverage a dusting of snow can get, but flooding threats seem ho-hum. I think it will take very little rain in a short amount of time to get local creeks out of their banks once again.
well agree.  Some saying in the weather world that this spring flooding could even be biblical... pretty stout words
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Curt on February 29, 2020, 02:22:43 PM
Euro backs waaaaay off on precip totals across the state over the next 10 days. Looks like heavier rains are well further south.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: dwagner88 on February 29, 2020, 02:54:13 PM
Euro backs waaaaay off on precip totals across the state over the next 10 days. Looks like heavier rains are well further south.
I was wondering why MRX didnít issue any sort of hyrdologic outlook or HWO today. This must be the reason. The GFS and the Canadian are also trying to move the heavy rains south, but they both still have heavy totals in SE TN. Much less in middle and western though.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on February 29, 2020, 04:33:02 PM
I was wondering why MRX didnít issue any sort of hyrdologic outlook or HWO today. This must be the reason. The GFS and the Canadian are also trying to move the heavy rains south, but they both still have heavy totals in SE TN. Much less in middle and western though.
meg. Still going with areas of 5 inches rain with some even isolated higher totals next week
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Eric on February 29, 2020, 05:19:28 PM
Euro backs waaaaay off on precip totals across the state over the next 10 days. Looks like heavier rains are well further south.

Noticed the 12z GFS did the same thing.  Trend?  I have noticed that during these heavy rain scenarios the main axis does move around a bit.  Hopefully that crap stays south.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on February 29, 2020, 08:20:16 PM
Those model trends have influenced the wording of the latest hydrologic outlook, saying now 1-2" of rain over much of the region with 3-5" in southern counties.

That's not as concerning as the 5-7" suggested earlier, but it will still reinforce river rises.

Quote
Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
325 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

...Heavy Rain and Flooding Possible Monday into Wednesday...

An approaching storm will bring widespread rain to Middle
Tennessee beginning Sunday night and continuing into at least
Wednesday.

Heavy rain is possible...though not certain...on Monday and
Tuesday. Much of the region should receive at least 1 to 2
inches of rain. However, there is potential for an area of 3 to 5
inches to occur. The most likely location for this to happen is
across the southern counties of Middle Tennessee but this could
change in the next two days.

Most of the mid state had well above average rainfall over the
past 2 months. If very heavy rain occurs Monday into Wednesday,
flooding may occur along rivers, creeks, roads and low lying
areas.

Middle Tennessee residents should monitor the latest forecasts
concerning the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding over the
next few days. For the latest forecast updates and river
forecasts, visit our website at weather.gov/nashville.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: dwagner88 on February 29, 2020, 09:12:08 PM
I've noticed that these stationary/stalled boundaries almost always wind up further south than initially modeled. I won't be surprised if the heavy rain winds up south of I-20 at this point.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 02, 2020, 07:10:44 AM
A slight risk of severe storms has been introduced for the west half of the state today.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day1otlk_20200302_1200.html
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 02, 2020, 08:17:09 AM
A slight risk of severe storms has been introduced for the west half of the state today.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day1otlk_20200302_1200.html

looks like some wind gusts and hail could be on it's way, with as much rain as we had it won't take much to knock over a few trees today
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2020, 10:44:27 AM
Wow. They hatched our Hail threat 15 percent ... upped the winds  15 percent. Tornado went up to 5 percent ... I didnít see that coming be honest. Though nam was bit higher on instability
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 02, 2020, 11:04:41 AM
Wow. They hatched our Hail threat 15 percent ... upped the winds  15 percent. Tornado went up to 5 percent ... I didnít see that coming be honest. Though nam was bit higher on instability

lol I noticed that too and posted in the march thread by accident lol....
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2020, 11:44:11 AM
Latest hrr interesting ... 60 t dbz. Could see some significant hail later
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 02, 2020, 12:43:26 PM
I tweaked the thread title to reflect the shift of focus.

Serious flooding doesnít seem like such a concern as perhaps some severe weather.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: andyhb on March 02, 2020, 01:01:32 PM
W/Middle TN could get rather interesting tonight just looking at some of the progged RAP/HRRR soundings. What we have is a juxtaposition of very cold air aloft (500 mb temps approaching -20˚C) with resulting fat CAPE profiles despite somewhat marginal low level thermos, and very strong deep layer shear favoring long-lived supercells with very large hail.

Tornado potential is a bit more unclear, especially if the degree of cooling after dark sets in too quickly (or should moisture underperform somewhat). I wouldn't trust this in Dixie. Low level helicity rapidly increases post-00z with a 40-50 kt WSW LLJ and near southerly surface winds. Should we still have discrete, surface based cells by 01-02z, I would not be shocked to see a tornado or two (perhaps even a strong tornado) given favorable low level shear and considerable 0-3 km CAPE.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 02, 2020, 02:14:23 PM
W/Middle TN could get rather interesting tonight just looking at some of the progged RAP/HRRR soundings. What we have is a juxtaposition of very cold air aloft (500 mb temps approaching -20˚C) with resulting fat CAPE profiles despite somewhat marginal low level thermos, and very strong deep layer shear favoring long-lived supercells with very large hail.

Tornado potential is a bit more unclear, especially if the degree of cooling after dark sets in too quickly (or should moisture underperform somewhat). I wouldn't trust this in Dixie. Low level helicity rapidly increases post-00z with a 40-50 kt WSW LLJ and near southerly surface winds. Should we still have discrete, surface based cells by 01-02z, I would not be shocked to see a tornado or two (perhaps even a strong tornado) given favorable low level shear and considerable 0-3 km CAPE.

Thank you Andy for your input.  When you speak I listen.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2020, 02:26:45 PM
Thank you Andy for your input.  When you speak I listen.
need listen all time . Be honest . Lol

Post Merge: March 02, 2020, 02:28:26 PM
How I learned ...
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 02, 2020, 03:06:59 PM
need listen all time . Be honest . Lol

Post Merge: March 02, 2020, 02:28:26 PM
How I learned ...

Bruce I do listen.  I just donít listen to predictions 2 weeks away or a month away.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 02, 2020, 03:10:50 PM
Bruce I do listen.  I just donít listen to predictions 2 weeks away or a month away.

4 days out is about when I start paying attention to a "potential" weather threat...:)
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2020, 03:31:19 PM
need listen all time . Be honest . Lol

Post Merge: March 02, 2020, 02:28:26 PM
How I learned ...

My man needs to learn about prepositions.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2020, 04:14:56 PM
First meso out over northeast Arkansas...
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 02, 2020, 04:33:50 PM
initiation is a bit slower than I thought, but a new cell just popped up south of henderson
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2020, 04:36:15 PM
initiation is a bit slower than I thought, but a new cell just popped up south of henderson
latest hrr has slowed the timing down bit
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 02, 2020, 04:54:13 PM
this is where I think I differ from most.....while the event is underway is when I don't pay attention to models, I feel it's time to radar watch snd see the event unfold....as an honest question am I wrong? lol
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2020, 05:06:43 PM
this is where I think I differ from most.....while the event is underway is when I don't pay attention to models, I feel it's time to radar watch snd see the event unfold....as an honest question am I wrong? lol
nope...
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: mamMATTus on March 02, 2020, 05:28:47 PM
[attachimg=1]

Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 35
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   520 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of
     Northern Arkansas
     Southern Illinois
     Southwestern Indiana
     Western Kentucky
     Southeastern Missouri
     Northwestern Tennessee

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning from 520 PM
     until 100 AM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter likely
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should develop and increase in coverage and
   intensity through the evening over the watch area, with commensurate
   increase in mainly large-hail potential in a favorable supercell
   environment.  Tornadoes are possible, however, along with isolated
   severe gusts.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   either side of a line from 45 miles south of Harrison AR to
   Owensboro KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
   associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2020, 06:13:59 PM
Cells in southern Missouri getting their act together last 30 minutes
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: NismoWx on March 02, 2020, 06:37:27 PM
The 00z BNA sounding...

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=GIF:SKEWT&YEAR=2020&MONTH=03&FROM=0300&TO=0300&STNM=72327 (http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=GIF:SKEWT&YEAR=2020&MONTH=03&FROM=0300&TO=0300&STNM=72327)


 ::flag:: It's a little blustery.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: mamMATTus on March 02, 2020, 07:59:00 PM
[attach=1]

Not out of the realm of possibility that this Tor warned cell in Kentucky holds together and makes it's way into Bowling Green. Good signature currently and looks like there is even debris using CC scan. Definitely a large hail core as well.

Further south and west...trying to figure out what the hold up is. I expected a lot more activity right now and it's now 8pm CST.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2020, 08:21:21 PM
(Attachment Link)

Not out of the realm of possibility that this Tor warned cell in Kentucky holds together and makes it's way into Bowling Green. Good signature currently and looks like there is even debris using CC scan. Definitely a large hail core as well.

Further south and west...trying to figure out what the hold up is. I expected a lot more activity right now and it's now 8pm CST.
good question... spc sure holding on to same area new development... guess waiting for the short wave to pivot through from the west ...
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 02, 2020, 08:26:17 PM
looks like middle Tennessee might make it with not much weather to speak of?
I believe things would have initiated farther south than what it is, not even another meso discussion yet and its 8:30
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: mamMATTus on March 02, 2020, 08:29:13 PM
looks like middle Tennessee might make it with not much weather to speak of?
I believe things would have initiated farther south than what it is, not even another meso discussion yet and its 8:30

Think that is just about to happen. A few showers starting to pop.

Post Merge: March 02, 2020, 08:57:34 PM
I hate it when this stuff gets going late. I get amped and then I can't go to bed.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2020, 09:29:42 PM
Things just starting to get going central Arkansas
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 02, 2020, 10:41:43 PM
That cell near McKenzie needs to be watched.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 02, 2020, 11:05:44 PM
TOR- Benton and Henry Counties... rotation near Camden.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 02, 2020, 11:12:07 PM
Def starting to get some action
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 02, 2020, 11:16:56 PM
From the hail perspective, it looks beastly on radar.

Greater Nashville surrounding counties look to get in on this in the next couple of hours.

Late night threats like this not ideal, with reported TOGs earlier this evening.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 02, 2020, 11:18:28 PM
Itís now entering OHXís CWA with TOR for Houston and Humphreys.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Beth on March 02, 2020, 11:19:22 PM
Yes it is moving towards Dickson at a pretty fast clip.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 02, 2020, 11:22:01 PM
Stay safe. Itís been a really long time since Iíve seen a supe with this appearance in Middle TN.


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Post Merge: March 02, 2020, 11:27:09 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Clay on March 02, 2020, 11:30:41 PM
These are some LONG track discreet supercells.  ::wow::
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: mamMATTus on March 02, 2020, 11:36:45 PM
I really hate these nocturnal threats. Can't see anything which completely robs the situation of any joy. Have to be up at 6 and there's no way I can sleep when it looks like this thing is headed straight toward Nashville right now.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 02, 2020, 11:47:30 PM
Incredible.  Tracking straight at Davidson.  I donít see how that is not on ground.

Post Merge: March 02, 2020, 11:48:34 PM
Seems many are starting to pop up
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Beth on March 02, 2020, 11:57:56 PM
It went North of us into Charlotte. Looks like Ashland city and Northern part of of Nashville is going to get it now.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: mamMATTus on March 02, 2020, 11:59:17 PM
Ehhh...this cell really isn't changing course. Getting nervous.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Brad on March 03, 2020, 12:01:28 AM
Hoping for the best for all in the line of both of those cells. If the wind and thunder doesnít wake people up, the sound of hail sure will. 70dbz returns.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2020, 12:02:10 AM
This is a little too close for comfort. Please stay aware and let your friends and family in the path know to take shelter.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: andyhb on March 03, 2020, 12:30:28 AM
Need a tornado warning on the Nashville Cell now.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: mamMATTus on March 03, 2020, 12:31:48 AM
Need a tornado warning on the Nashville Cell now.

I was just about to say it looks like it's trying to wrap back up...

Post Merge: March 03, 2020, 12:37:55 AM
And we've got sirens in Hermitage
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: andyhb on March 03, 2020, 12:39:49 AM
HUGE DEBRIS BALL

Post Merge: March 03, 2020, 12:39:54 AM
HUGE DEBRIS BALL
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 12:40:32 AM
TAKE COVER


At 1238 AM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Nashville, moving east at 45 mph.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 12:41:01 AM
Channel 5 live  omg
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 12:42:16 AM
[attachimg=1]

oh no
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: WXHD on March 03, 2020, 12:46:15 AM
And.... weíre up. Fingers crossed for everyone.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Beth on March 03, 2020, 12:52:15 AM
What area of Nash?
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 12:55:12 AM
Why is a tornado emergency issued

Post Merge: March 03, 2020, 12:55:37 AM
North along I40

Post Merge: March 03, 2020, 12:57:14 AM
Channel 5 says debris falling from sky in old hickory north of tornado
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Beth on March 03, 2020, 12:57:32 AM
Touching down or just debris? My son is without power.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: WXHD on March 03, 2020, 12:58:20 AM
What area of Nash?

West. We fortunately avoided everything so far.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Nash_LSU on March 03, 2020, 12:58:41 AM
Video from midtown looking towards Germantown/metro center: https://mobile.twitter.com/shamnadoes/status/1234732582559997952

Just heard from a co-worker in Inglewood that they just got rocked hard by it. Looks like it took a path just a mile or so north of the one from 21 years ago.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 12:59:20 AM
Touching down or just debris? My son is without power.

Channel 5 showed it live.  It is still on ground.  Confirmed large tornado on ground still
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Beth on March 03, 2020, 12:59:56 AM
More storms heading our way from the west.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: memphishogfan on March 03, 2020, 01:06:06 AM
Man that that thing is not backing down. 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: andyhb on March 03, 2020, 01:07:12 AM
This sucker is a monster.

https://twitter.com/Nic_Goodridge/status/1234735341690638337
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Beth on March 03, 2020, 01:08:05 AM
My son works as campus police at Fisk and has apt. next to it. He said it was really a mess there. Roofs off buildings. Power lines down.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Brad on March 03, 2020, 01:10:51 AM
Wow.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200303/db631d5620e5a88ce25c3d3ef7363d70.jpg)
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: memphishogfan on March 03, 2020, 01:11:29 AM
Screen shot of the tweet above

(https://i.imgur.com/GKjVzEd.png)
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: WXHD on March 03, 2020, 01:14:04 AM
More storms heading our way from the west.

I hope not as severe.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Beth on March 03, 2020, 01:17:27 AM
I hope not as severe.
They donít look as severe yet. But it could be a long rest of the night.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 01:20:03 AM
Cells getting their act together further west around Jackson.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Nash_LSU on March 03, 2020, 01:28:00 AM
Yeah, that one due east of Jackson looks like it has potential.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 01:34:32 AM
My mom and brother family are alive.  Moms house sustained damage.  Brother house is a war zone.  They are in Lebanon
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 01:36:00 AM
My mom and brother family are alive.  Moms house sustained damage.  Brother house is a war zone.  They are in Lebanon

Sorry to hear the impact but thankful they made it through alive.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Scot on March 03, 2020, 01:36:09 AM
Safe in Mount Juliet but several friends here suffered significant damage.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: WXHD on March 03, 2020, 01:49:56 AM
Voting should be interesting in parts of Nashville tomorrow.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 01:51:06 AM
The next long tracker is now severe warned on a Parsons to Centerville trajectory. Looks like it may affect south of Nashville down the road.

Folks- Iím afraid itís one of those nights.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Heath22 on March 03, 2020, 01:51:11 AM
Wow, this is the absolute worst time for this to be happening. And now that cell that came through Nashville just tightened up and got warned again just west of Cookeville.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 01:51:45 AM
Voting should be interesting in parts of Nashville tomorrow.

Super Tuesday 2020 Outbreak now I guess.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 01:55:07 AM
https://twitter.com/chrisconte/status/1234743430091300864?s=20


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Scot on March 03, 2020, 01:57:12 AM
Have friends that lost their house here in Mount Juliet.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 01:58:49 AM
Check out the funnel from East Nash


https://twitter.com/Daniel_Alley/status/1234733638085902342?s=20


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 01:59:43 AM
Have friends that lost their house here in Mount Juliet.


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So sorry.

I fear the news of just how bad it is.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Scot on March 03, 2020, 02:00:26 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200303/1c914d92c71dcd364776e7b7eff08d16.jpg)


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 02:15:45 AM
Cookeville area may have been hit.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 03, 2020, 02:27:51 AM
 Iím almost certain this thing has touched down in every county from Camden to Cookeville.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 02:30:41 AM
Cookeville was confirmed hit. 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Jilly on March 03, 2020, 02:36:44 AM
Baxter & Cookeville got hit.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 02:41:22 AM
The activity coming in now seems more ďjunkyĒ and no warnings at this time which is fine by me.

Multiple injuries reported in Mount Juliet with searches ongoing.

Donelson Christian Elementary reportedly destroyed.

Thatís a scenario where itís good this happened at night.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 02:49:51 AM
WKRN:


Cookeville:  Marty Smith tells us: "North McBroom Chapel area. Homes destroyed and people trapped".


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 02:51:48 AM
[attachimg=1]West Wilson Middle School in Mt Juliet hit.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 03:05:45 AM

Reports coming in:
**The Basement East is gone - split in half
**Germantown heavily damaged
**Nashville Fire Dept. responding to 40+ collapsed buildings
**West Wilson Elementary School heavily damaged
**Reports Donaldson Academy is damaged
**40 at 109 in Lebanon closed due to power lines down
**Interstate 40 is closed both directions in Lebanon
**Damage at Fed Ex distribution center in Lebanon
**109 took a direct hit. Thorntonís heavily damaged.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 03:08:23 AM
I hate to say it- this is worse than Ď98.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 03:29:01 AM
I hate to say it- this is worse than Ď98.


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Much worse and over a lot more miles.  My brothers and moms areas are war zones. His house is destroyed and even his building holding his lawnmowers and etc is nowhere to be found.  Picked it up and took it. This is Lebanon area along 40
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: StormNine on March 03, 2020, 04:07:17 AM
Needless to say I am quite shocked waking up and seeing all of the damage and reports from Middle TN from Camden to Nashville to Lebanon to Cookeville. 

Daybreak I am sure will reveal quite a bit of horrifying damage. 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2020, 04:28:38 AM
Needless to say I am quite shocked waking up and seeing all of the damage and reports from Middle TN from Camden to Nashville to Lebanon to Cookeville. 

Daybreak I am sure will reveal quite a bit of horrifying damage.
wow. I wasnít expecting all this to be honest ... bad

Post Merge: March 03, 2020, 04:30:33 AM
Could this be the Oman for this spring?
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on March 03, 2020, 04:41:28 AM
Needless to say I am quite shocked waking up and seeing all of the damage and reports from Middle TN from Camden to Nashville to Lebanon to Cookeville. 

Daybreak I am sure will reveal quite a bit of horrifying damage.

We have been out after it came through. We weren't as bad as Nashville but still had loss of life.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: mamMATTus on March 03, 2020, 05:13:16 AM
I work for the City of Mt Juliet. I've been here since about 1. Can confirm heavy damage.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 05:42:06 AM
So far- 5 fatalities- 2 in East Nashville and 3 in Putnam County.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: cgauxknox on March 03, 2020, 05:53:14 AM
Terrible news to wake up to this morning. I was surprised to have the thunderstorms actually develop over East TN this morning but was shocked at the tornado event that stretched across so much of Middle.  I hope all of our members and your loved ones there are safe.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on March 03, 2020, 06:15:19 AM
So far- 5 fatalities- 2 in East Nashville and 3 in Putnam County.


6. We lost one that we got out of the remains of a house.

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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2020, 06:37:19 AM
May not be the proper time to discuss this ... but with the short range models trending worse late yesterday, I think a enhanced risk should have been warranted at the 730 pm update yesterday...
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Icestorm on March 03, 2020, 06:40:40 AM
Congratulations to all you that have been wanting severe weather y'all finally got it, especially BRUCE.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: TNHunter on March 03, 2020, 07:16:09 AM
Congratulations to all you that have been wanting severe weather y'all finally got it, especially BRUCE.

Right.  Never, ever get excited about this severe weather crap.  You know loss of life will happen with these events. Prayers to all those affected.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 07:18:22 AM
Congratulations to all you that have been wanting severe weather y'all finally got it, especially BRUCE.

Now is not the time.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Susan on March 03, 2020, 07:35:45 AM
Channel 5 has reported 9 dead, thus far.   :'(
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2020, 08:06:46 AM
Wow just saw a video of mt. Juliet area. Devastated
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2020, 08:12:15 AM
Emotions are running hot this morning.  Take a minute before hitting "post" and decide if it's worth it. 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 08:14:12 AM
gosh, the other day I mentioned I wonder if something would happen on this super Tuesday, I sure didn't want it to, how devastating! Some pics look like legit EF4 damage :(

I went to bed at 10:30 so I don't even know what happened, was everything discrete supercells? I hope there is a radar loop I can look at
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2020, 08:17:22 AM
gosh, the other day I mentioned I wonder if something would happen on this super Tuesday, I sure didn't want it to, how devastating! Some pics look like legit EF4 damage :(

I went to bed at 10:30 so I don't even know what happened, was everything discrete supercells? I hope there is a radar loop I can look at

Yes.  The storm that raked Nashville ---> Lebanon ----> Cookeville was a discrete supercell.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2020, 08:21:13 AM
Yes.  The storm that raked Nashville ---> Lebanon ----> Cookeville was a discrete supercell.
if Iím not mistaken. Pretty sure that cell was born right near dyersburg west tn. Just grew

Post Merge: March 03, 2020, 08:24:45 AM
Like take just minute and applaud Andy... he nailed this . People like him  Eric, Gossage  I really have learned and Listen to
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Brad on March 03, 2020, 08:25:40 AM
gosh, the other day I mentioned I wonder if something would happen on this super Tuesday, I sure didn't want it to, how devastating! Some pics look like legit EF4 damage :(

I went to bed at 10:30 so I don't even know what happened, was everything discrete supercells? I hope there is a radar loop I can look at

I didnít save a loop but did screenshot the couplet.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200303/4787e449228b276904b3b2caac756b06.jpg)
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 08:26:50 AM
I didnít save a loop but did screenshot the couplet.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200303/4787e449228b276904b3b2caac756b06.jpg)

omg, that's about as bad as it can look , you can even see the inflow winds racing into the circulation!
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2020, 08:37:50 AM
Woke up stunned, and Iím really sorry to hear whatís happened over in middle TN.  My thoughts and prayers are with those who woke up to deal with great loss, especially the gut wrenching kind of losing a loved one. 

Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 08:39:44 AM
it's amazing that a tornado this violent could be born out of a "slight" risk while people's guard is somewhat let down ,

There is just no way to know when a cell will decide to go rogue like the one last night did, and right in the middle of the night, just awful
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2020, 08:42:07 AM
it's amazing that a tornado this violent could be born out of a "slight" risk while people's guard is somewhat let down ,

There is just no way to know when a cell will decide to go rogue like the one last night did, and right in the middle of the night, just awful
short range models and cam clearly showed this event little worse as day progressed. Enhanced risk would been warranted my eyes by 730 pm outlook
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: joemomma on March 03, 2020, 08:44:49 AM
Thankfully we are safe just north of Cookeville city limits.  We lost power early this morning and had some wind/hail, but no damage that I saw as I was leaving for work.  Several I work with have lost homes, and some are still at the hospital.  Many structures/homes west of town out on 70 are gone - totally flattened. 

It seems that area favors the tornado track as they come through...perhaps something with the geography.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Sbeagles on March 03, 2020, 08:52:31 AM
Saw that storm begin to get its act together near the Mississippi river last night while at the Preds game and watched it develop and long track all the way into eastern Tn. Unreal really when you think about the power of a storm to carry that amount of intensity and ability to produce a strong long track tornado over the hilly terrain of middle Tennessee. One of our main food providers at a restaurant I own here in Linden is located in the Mt. Juliet area. They text me a while ago saying they will be closed until further notice. I feel for all those involved.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: ChrisPC on March 03, 2020, 09:00:44 AM
The phones and the weather radio went off, and I listened. I heard the PDS.  ::wow::

I grabbed my wife and kids and got in the closet under our stairs. We heard it! It was only half a mile away. I was in Kroger 36 hours ago, and now itís partially collapsed.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2020, 09:06:38 AM
it's amazing that a tornado this violent could be born out of a "slight" risk while people's guard is somewhat let down ,

There is just no way to know when a cell will decide to go rogue like the one last night did, and right in the middle of the night, just awful

Conditions were marginal last night.  The 0z balloon from OHX showed nothing extraordinary but the shear was legit.  And Bruce was right, Andy called it early on.  It wasn't a noteworthy tornado-making parameter space but enough components came together at the right time.  As far as the SLIGHT goes, the threat was conditional enough that an upgrade wasn't warranted.  Just because a deadly TOR happened inside a SLIGHT risk area doesn't mean there should've been an upgrade.  This came out at 2pm from the SPC:

Quote
Considered
   upgrade to enhanced risk, but given expected initiation near sunset
   when the boundary layer will be stabilizing, the window of
   opportunity for a more significant severe event appears relatively
   small.

And this from the 1am convective outlook:

Quote
Thunderstorms have developed late this afternoon/early this evening
   from far northern Arkansas/southern Missouri eastward to western
   Kentucky, near a weak surface low analyzed over southeastern
   Missouri and the associated warm/cold fronts.  Supercell wind
   profiles are observed across the region, while broken cloud cover
   from parts of Arkansas eastward aided modest/prior heating -- and
   thus development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.

   Given the environment, a few rotating storms have evolved, with
   attendant severe weather being reported locally.  With time, as the
   low shifts eastward and the cold front sags southeastward across
   Arkansas and the Arklatex region, additional/scattered storm
   development is expected.  While instability is lesser to the south
   -- owing to denser cloud cover which persisted through the day --
   ample shear suggests a few severe storms may evolve from northeast
   Texas eastward across Mississippi and western Alabama this
   evening/overnight.  However, greatest severe potential should remain
   farther north -- focused from northeast Arkansas and southeast
   Missouri eastward across the Mid South/Tennessee Valley area.

The event was localized and the SLIGHT risk highlighted it well.  There were 8 TOR reports and all but one were inside the SLGT risk contour. 

Via the Lead Forecaster at OHX:
Quote
ē This event was very unusual - a long track, tornadic supercell that crossed
nearly the length of Tennessee from west to east in a high shear (0-1km SRH around 500 m2/s2), low cape (MLCAPE 300ish J/Kg), poor thermodynamic environment (temperatures only in low to mid 60s with mid to upper 50 dewpoints)

That just proves how localized the threat really was.  The SLIGHT was justified, IMO.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: NashRugger on March 03, 2020, 09:14:33 AM
Nashville/Mt. Juliet tornado likely will be rated EF3, at minimum. Now, pending review of the single family homes in Mt. Juliet that were completely destroyed west of Mt. Juliet Road, it could be upgraded, but given tree damage directly adjacent to the home foundations, I see nothing to support higher than what I said above.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 09:35:25 AM
Conditions were marginal last night.  The 0z balloon from OHX showed nothing extraordinary but the shear was legit.  And Bruce was right, Andy called it early on.  It wasn't a noteworthy tornado-making parameter space but enough components came together at the right time.  As far as the SLIGHT goes, the threat was conditional enough that an upgrade wasn't warranted.  Just because a deadly TOR happened inside a SLIGHT risk area doesn't mean there should've been an upgrade.  This came out at 2pm from the SPC:

And this from the 1am convective outlook:

The event was localized and the SLIGHT risk highlighted it well.  There were 8 TOR reports and all but one were inside the SLGT risk contour. 

Via the Lead Forecaster at OHX:
That just proves how localized the threat really was.  The SLIGHT was justified, IMO.

I don't disagree at all....just shows sometimes weather is gonna do what it wants....thoughts and prayers with everybody affected :(
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 09:42:09 AM
Nashville/Mt. Juliet tornado likely will be rated EF3, at minimum. Now, pending review of the single family homes in Mt. Juliet that were completely destroyed west of Mt. Juliet Road, it could be upgraded, but given tree damage directly adjacent to the home foundations, I see nothing to support higher than what I said above.

I heard a report of a vehicle being lofted up on the upper (third I think) floor of a structure... just hearsay at this point though.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 09:43:30 AM
Nashville/Mt. Juliet tornado likely will be rated EF3, at minimum. Now, pending review of the single family homes in Mt. Juliet that were completely destroyed west of Mt. Juliet Road, it could be upgraded, but given tree damage directly adjacent to the home foundations, I see nothing to support higher than what I said above.

Some of those pics from Mt Juliet I thought I saw a bit of de-barking, sure was a strong one wasn't it, and the news keeps getting worse as the morning goes on
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 09:44:22 AM
I appreciate this board.  I am in shock this morning.  All my family is safe but my brother lost his house is lost and my moms has damage.  I called them to wake them up.  They had no idea.  My sisters house was 4 miles was complete devastation in Cookeville.  I called them also.  My heart is broken for my brothers neighborhood.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Susan on March 03, 2020, 09:45:58 AM
Sadly, the death number across the state has been increased to 19.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2020, 09:49:16 AM
I heard a report of a vehicle being lofted up on the upper (third I think) floor of a structure... just hearsay at this point though.

Yeah, Heather Mathis from NC5 posted the pic on Twitter.  There seemed to be some confusion.  Some suggested, given the viewpoint, it could've been a parking lot between the buildings (since there was another car in view) but she said her crew witnessed it first hand, so  ::scratch:: ...
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 09:50:11 AM
I appreciate this board.  I am in shock this morning.  All my family is safe but my brother lost his house is lost and my moms has damage.  I called them to wake them up.  They had no idea.  My sisters house was 4 miles was complete devastation in Cookeville.  I called them also.  My heart is broken for my brothers neighborhood.

but everybody is ok?
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: snowdog on March 03, 2020, 09:56:48 AM
Checking in, we got lucky here. Was in the path but it sort of skipped my house. Many friends have lost their homes or has been damaged in Mount Juliet. My kids middle school is West Wilson. Damage is pretty bad. Some houses completely destroyed.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2020, 09:58:19 AM
Checking in, we got lucky here. Was in the path but it sort of skipped my house. Many friends have lost their homes or has been damaged in Mount Juliet. My kids middle school is West Wilson. Damage is pretty bad. Some houses completely destroyed.

Good gracious...glad you and the family are OK.  Same goes for ChrisPC that posted earlier.  Thoughts go out for those affected....
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 10:02:19 AM
I appreciate this board.  I am in shock this morning.  All my family is safe but my brother lost his house is lost and my moms has damage.  I called them to wake them up.  They had no idea. 

That right there is sobering to hear... to know this forum played a role more than just hobbyists on a message board.

For me, I don't think the gravity of what occurred has yet sunk in. Props to Andy also with that word of concern last night.

We started monitoring that cell here when it was still back in West TN before it was even TOR-warned. Little did we know.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: snowdog on March 03, 2020, 10:04:11 AM
Good gracious...glad you and the family are OK.  Same goes for ChrisPC that posted earlier.  Thoughts go out for those affected....

Yeah, I lived in Hermitage for the 98 tornado and this one is much worse. Buddy sent pics from Triple Crown neighborhood in Mount Juliet, multiple houses completely leveled, many heavily damaged.

Post Merge: March 03, 2020, 10:06:30 AM
That right there is sobering to hear... to know this forum played a role more than just hobbyists on a message board.

For me, I don't think the gravity of what occurred has yet sunk in. Props to Andy also with that word of concern last night.

We started monitoring that cell here when it was still back in West TN before it was even TOR-warned. Little did we know.

I should've checked the board before going to bed. I wrote it off and turned off my phone when I went to bee without giving it a thought. Woke up to all **** breaking loose outside and sirens. Grabbed the kids and hit the basement.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Greyhound on March 03, 2020, 10:06:35 AM
Yeah, I lived in Hermitage for the 98 tornado and this one is much worse. Buddy sent pics from Triple Crown neighborhood in Mount Juliet, multiple houses completely leveled, many heavily damaged.
I was in Nashville at that time also.  Had just left McGavock HS shortly before it tore up the middle of the football field.

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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2020, 10:23:21 AM
Truly in shock this morning. This is the best tornado footage I've found so far.
https://twitter.com/daniel_alley/status/1234733638085902342
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Scot on March 03, 2020, 10:41:34 AM
All I live in Mount Juliet but am safe. Several friends have lost everything. However, a young man who now lives in Cookeville and is a youth minister has a daughter that is 4 and is missing.  They were all hiding in the hallway and woke up outside in a ditch.  This is devastating.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2020, 10:44:43 AM
All I live in Mount Juliet but am safe. Several friends have lost everything. However, a young man who now lives in Cookeville and is a youth minister has a daughter that is 4 and is missing.  They were all hiding in the hallway and woke up outside in a ditch.  This is devastating.


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My god.......
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 10:47:21 AM
All I live in Mount Juliet but am safe. Several friends have lost everything. However, a young man who now lives in Cookeville and is a youth minister has a daughter that is 4 and is missing.  They were all hiding in the hallway and woke up outside in a ditch.  This is devastating.


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it's things like this that rip your heart out :(
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 10:48:03 AM
My god.......

Unfortunately my sis lives in cookeville and knew the family.  She also has a fellow teacher friend who lost one child and another that has been flown to Vandy in critical condition
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2020, 10:49:10 AM
it's things like this that rip your heart out :(
i feel guilty this morning... I canít read  much more this. Sorry ☹️
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 10:53:04 AM
i feel guilty this morning... I canít read  much more this. Sorry ☹️

I remember talking a few weeks back that severe weather is fascinating but I am more scared of it now than ever before after seeing 2011. And I went from being excited about storms to being more of a concerned and proactive person in warning people in my family when they are coming and watching it like a hawk. I wish these storms would just stay in the plains over open fields

ALL it takes is on strong tornado hitting a downtown area to change/devastate lives forever
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 11:06:06 AM
Update: 21 fatalities
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: bugalou on March 03, 2020, 11:20:12 AM
I woke up with the thunder and saw the warning on radarscope but had no idea it was this bad.  Wow. 
Anyone on the board effected or need help?  RIP to the victims.  I really wish people would get Wx radios.  Cell alerts are great but not infallible.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 11:21:04 AM
Update: 21 fatalities

gosh it just gets worse and worse
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: andyhb on March 03, 2020, 11:32:00 AM
The damage I've seen from Cookeville is devastating and looks like a candidate for EF4.

This is the second Super Tuesday tornado event to take more than 20 lives in Middle TN and the second straight year that March 3 has seen more than 20 tornado related fatalities.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Susan on March 03, 2020, 11:33:08 AM
Nashville is getting a lot of coverage. Letís not forget Cookeville, their loss of live is up to 16.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Lcwthrnut on March 03, 2020, 11:34:25 AM
Update: 21 fatalities

Iím afraid this number will continue to rise. 16 alone in Putnam now... praying for everyone affected.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: andyhb on March 03, 2020, 11:35:09 AM
https://twitter.com/SteelersFanTN/status/1234877698461360129

(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/572509768741158932/684450365713809436/ESM0whvWsAo8vcW.png)
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 11:35:39 AM
The damage I've seen from Cookeville is devastating and looks like a candidate for EF4.

This is the second Super Tuesday tornado event to take more than 20 lives in Middle TN and the second straight year that March 3 has seen more than 20 tornado related fatalities.

I agree, Wilson county and Putnam really have some damage looking like ef4 .
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Nash_LSU on March 03, 2020, 11:35:57 AM
I should've checked the board before going to bed. I wrote it off and turned off my phone when I went to bee without giving it a thought. Woke up to all **** breaking loose outside and sirens. Grabbed the kids and hit the basement.

Me too. I thought it was going to be just some strong to severe storms closer to 3-4 am from the information around suppertime. I usually wake up around 1-2 and was planning on checking in then. I was woken up by the sirens before I got a chance to check in on the updated conditions. **** of a wake up.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 11:36:27 AM
Near my sisters house in Cookeville
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2020, 11:38:02 AM
https://twitter.com/SteelersFanTN/status/1234877698461360129

(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/572509768741158932/684450365713809436/ESM0whvWsAo8vcW.png)
what I think also for what Iím seeing
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 11:45:23 AM
I know we all love wx.  How about we wish for snow and no more severe wx.  As we see some of us have been directly affected.   Snow dog glad you and your family  are safe.

Again Andy thank you for alerting me to watch.  I stayed up and was able to call my brother whom would have never known what was heading his way if I had not called him.  His family was sound asleep.  The same for my mother and sisters family. 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Susan on March 03, 2020, 11:46:07 AM
News Channel 5 just showed helicopter footage from Cookeville.  Many homes with just the slab left, an entire cul-de-sac leveled.  Complete devastation.  Terrible. 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Jilly on March 03, 2020, 11:46:40 AM
President said he is visiting TN on Friday.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2020, 11:46:49 AM
From OHX:

Quote
Survey results so far: Mount Juliet (Wilson), at least EF-3 damage (155-160 mph). Donelson (Davidson), at least EF-3 damage (160-165 mph). This is just damage observed in these neighborhoods and it might possibly be the same tornado.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2020, 11:51:57 AM
I know we all love wx.  How about we wish for snow and no more severe wx.  As we see some of us have been directly affected.   Snow dog glad you and your family  are safe.

Again Andy thank you for alerting me to watch.  I stayed up and was able to call my brother whom would have never known what was heading his way if I had not called him.  His family was sound asleep.  The same for my mother and sisters family.
its a terrible situation but lives are lost in winter storms also. Just not by bunches...
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 11:53:13 AM
its a terrible situation but lives are lost in winter storms also. Just not by bunches...

I think that quote would have been better served for another time....emotions are still a bit raw bro :)
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 11:54:03 AM
I have been told by someone involved in the Cookeville search that a temporary morgue is being set up.  Bodies of families are being pulled out.  Estimate approximately around 30 have passed in Cookeville alone.  Pray this is not true.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2020, 11:56:24 AM
I think that quote would have been better served for another time....emotions are still a bit raw bro :)
why I said what I said earlier ... itís tough
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 12:00:41 PM
Cookeville search only has completed 30%
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: bugalou on March 03, 2020, 12:02:07 PM
I will buy anyone on the board a Wx radio that may not be able to afford it.  No questions asked just PM me. 
It breaks my heart seeing all the damage and realizing some of these people died being yanked out of bed. :(
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 12:07:24 PM
I will buy anyone on the board a Wx radio that may not be able to afford it.  No questions asked just PM me. 
It breaks my heart seeing all the damage and realizing some of these people died being yanked out of bed. :(

these southern nocturnal tornadoes are so horrible :(
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: schneitzeit on March 03, 2020, 12:14:48 PM
its a terrible situation but lives are lost in winter storms also. Just not by bunches...

If that's really your attitude about this right now, you need to go somewhere else. The death toll is up to 22 now, and will probably continue to rise. In the South, tornadoes are so much more destructive and deadly than winter storms.

Post Merge: March 03, 2020, 12:16:17 PM
these southern nocturnal tornadoes are so horrible :(

They are absolutely horrific. I cannot imagine waking up to my death like many of the victims did.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 12:20:53 PM
****Iím going say this once*****

STOP the bickering about severe fandom vs winter fandom. No one needs to be interested in comparing body counts in that right now.

Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: cgauxknox on March 03, 2020, 12:22:45 PM
I will buy anyone on the board a Wx radio that may not be able to afford it.  No questions asked just PM me. 
It breaks my heart seeing all the damage and realizing some of these people died being yanked out of bed. :(

Maybe this could be our opportunity to come together as a board and help our community. If someone would like to set up a fund to donate weather radios to the right place I'll gladly contribute.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: schneitzeit on March 03, 2020, 12:26:12 PM
If anyone wants to volunteer this weekend, check out Hands on Nashville's website.

https://www.hon.org/

I'm going to search for opportunities in Cookeville, too. I'll post the link(s) when I find something. I'm thinking about getting off work early on Friday and spending the weekend in Putnam County. Let me know if any of y'all are interested in riding with me to a volunteer site. I'll be happy to get you there and back. I'm based in Williamson County.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: bugalou on March 03, 2020, 12:32:07 PM
Maybe this could be our opportunity to come together as a board and help our community. If someone would like to set up a fund to donate weather radios to the right place I'll gladly contribute.

Agree!  This would be an awesome thing.  Will gladly contribute myself.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: ChrisPC on March 03, 2020, 12:36:12 PM
Did anyone else notice that WTVF 5 recorded this tornado out of the same back door as 1998? Itís eerie, to say the least! ::lookaround::
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: tnbassman on March 03, 2020, 01:03:30 PM
I found the stats attached from WKRN.COM. Unfortunately we are looking at a historic event for our state.
Prayers to all who are affected....



Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2020, 01:11:38 PM
This was found in a man's yard in Lebanon.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESMxf0eWkAAV28H?format=jpg&name=large)
Twitter @jerreev83
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 01:58:27 PM
was there any touchdown in Dickson or Cheatham county, I don't think I have seen that mentioned?

It also seems to me like it was a multivortex based on the damage swath...several pics of one house standing with moderate damage then another one flattened, that could be based on how sound the structures were too I guess though?
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: ChrisPC on March 03, 2020, 01:58:35 PM
I heard that a sheet of paper from DCA was found in Smith County.  ::faint::
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Sbeagles on March 03, 2020, 02:15:15 PM
All I live in Mount Juliet but am safe. Several friends have lost everything. However, a young man who now lives in Cookeville and is a youth minister has a daughter that is 4 and is missing.  They were all hiding in the hallway and woke up outside in a ditch.  This is devastating.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Just found out who this was a little while ago. Went to Freed-Hardeman with him, he lived next door. Unthinkable. Him and his wife are incredible people.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: harlequin on March 03, 2020, 03:11:53 PM
Wow, y'all....

Shocked by this! Thinking of Tennessee and home today. : ( I'm so sorry to those of you in the Mid State experiencing this.

Geez, so many places I have fond memories of in East Nashville are just wrecked.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2020, 03:35:06 PM
Per OHX:

Germantown/North Nashville EF2 - winds 125mph peak
East Nashville/Five Points EF3 - winds 136-140mph

Those two are the same tornado.  The damage path between Five Points and Mt Juliet hasn't been connected.  The Putnam Co TOR will be a different TOR and I think that survey will be done tomorrow.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: joemomma on March 03, 2020, 03:45:57 PM
I'd like to see the track/path once they get those maps done for Putnam.  I saw one earlier for the Nashville path.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 04:06:10 PM
I'd like to see the track/path once they get those maps done for Putnam.  I saw one earlier for the Nashville path.

from what I saw it almost looked like 2 circulations at the same time in Putnam county....?
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2020, 04:29:10 PM
Quote
Updated info from today's surveys:
Germantown/North Nashville: EF-2 (125 mph)
East Nashville/Five Points: EF-3 (136-140mph)
Donelson: EF-3 (160-165mph)
Mt. Juliet: EF-3 (155-160mph)

The damage in these neighborhoods is quite possibly from the same tornado. Stay tuned.

h/t OHX
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: joemomma on March 03, 2020, 04:34:39 PM
from what I saw it almost looked like 2 circulations at the same time in Putnam county....?

I'm not sure.  I know most of the damage was centered out towards the western end of 70.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Icestorm on March 03, 2020, 04:38:42 PM
I never ever want to see severe weather because of the possibility of property damage and lose of life, my prayers go out to all those who have suffered loss.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 03, 2020, 04:55:22 PM
The first tornado touchdown from this storm was outside of McKenzie. I was about to post about it needing a warning last night right before they issued one. I saw the damage from it this morning. Mostly tree damage that I saw. This storm literally developed right over my house. I was in shock when I woke up at 1 am and saw what was happening.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 04:59:54 PM
The first tornado touchdown from this storm was outside of McKenzie. I was about to post about it needing a warning last night right before they issued one. I saw the damage from it this morning. Mostly tree damage that I saw. This storm literally developed right over my house. I was in shock when I woke up at 1 am and saw what was happening.

I saw that storm pop up around 10'ish and I went to bed thinking it wasn't gonna do much, and then wake up this am to see devastation, a lone little cell just blew up in an environment I didn't think was too rich , amazing
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: snowdog on March 03, 2020, 05:01:27 PM
Per OHX:

Germantown/North Nashville EF2 - winds 125mph peak
East Nashville/Five Points EF3 - winds 136-140mph

Those two are the same tornado.  The damage path between Five Points and Mt Juliet hasn't been connected.  The Putnam Co TOR will be a different TOR and I think that survey will be done tomorrow.

If I had to guess, I'd say the it was the same tornado from East Nashville to Donelson to Hermitage to Mount Juliet to Lebanon. Or same cell. From what I can piece together it was jumping up and down. Jumped over me and for that I am grateful.

Have a good family friend who was also my daughter's teacher last year who was hospitalized with her small son. Non life threatening injuries but they lost everything. House collapsed around them.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on March 03, 2020, 05:22:16 PM
Camden is rated ef2 so far
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 03, 2020, 05:30:04 PM
After seeing what I've seen since 1:30am last night in person, I'd be shocked if Mt Juliet is anything less than EF-4.

Post Merge: March 03, 2020, 05:45:37 PM
Just to re-hash my night:
I live off OHB in Hermitage just south of 40. Left my apartment and just sat at the Shell gas station nearby & just monitored to the north...thought I was at a fairly safe distance. Moved further north over 40 and parked in the median in front of Tristar Med Center. I was there for maybe 5 minutes. Started to hear the faint vacuum sound grow louder and then began to see blue-green flashes off in the distance...I quickly realized they were working there way towards me. Managed to see a slight illumination of the top half of the funnel. High-tailed it south toward the OHB bridge at about 60 in sideways rain as everything goes black(while on the phone with OHX relaying what is happening). Get back to the apartment, monitor radar and wait for it to pass through Mt Juliet...I already knew what was happening. It was almost like a 6th sense.
Headed up to Mt Juliet about 1:30, all the while seeing the illuminated funnel as the lightning flashed traveling E on 40.

I'm too **** tired to type anymore I'll finish it later.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: NashRugger on March 03, 2020, 05:47:58 PM
The Mt. Juliet section intensity rating will hinge on the homes to the west of the middle school. I honestly donít see anything convincing beyond the current EF3 rating given the other damage indicators directly beside these homes.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2020, 06:08:15 PM
If I had to guess, I'd say the it was the same tornado from East Nashville to Donelson to Hermitage to Mount Juliet to Lebanon. Or same cell. From what I can piece together it was jumping up and down. Jumped over me and for that I am grateful.

Have a good family friend who was also my daughter's teacher last year who was hospitalized with her small son. Non life threatening injuries but they lost everything. House collapsed around them.

I think it was.  No official determination yet, though.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 03, 2020, 06:34:11 PM
This is where the storm started rotating. Talk about a long track supercell.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 07:26:03 PM
This is where the storm started rotating. Talk about a long track supercell.

(Attachment Link)

that warning polygon shows how much we cannot predict things correctly all the time....that cell went pretty much due east and not northeast
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Jilly on March 03, 2020, 07:27:57 PM
I'm 12 miles from Baxter as the crow flies... we were up and tracking it, in case I had to call neighbors & wake them up.
Volunteers are meeting Wed March 4th at 8am in Cookeville at 165 S. Jefferson for clean-up, need chainsaws, etc.
TTU is cancelling classes for a day of service, so students can help.
Also 1st Baptist Church in Sparta are meeting at the church at 7am to go to the Cookeville meeting.
https://uppercumberlandreporter.com/2020/03/as-our-community-stands-together/
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 07:44:44 PM
just curious for the storm structure side of things, the views I have seen seems to me as it was moving into Nashville it was a combo of a stovepipe and a wedge formation?

I still cannot believe it happened, even the mets seem stunned, it just was not a classic severe setup for something that strong to happen, that's what I cannot wrap my head around...we had a strong to violent long track tornado even without a "supercharged" environment, this is going to change the way I look at things going forward
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: NashRugger on March 03, 2020, 07:54:04 PM
just curious for the storm structure side of things, the views I have seen seems to me as it was moving into Nashville it was a combo of a stovepipe and a wedge formation?

I still cannot believe it happened, even the mets seem stunned, it just was not a classic severe setup for something that strong to happen, that's what I cannot wrap my head around...we had a strong to violent long track tornado even without a "supercharged" environment, this is going to change the way I look at things going forward
From the very few videos we've got, it's appearance evolved, just like intensity does. The first shot of it back NW of much of the city, basically near Tune Airport and The Nations, it appears like a stovepipe with a flared base. The view Sam Shamburger gave us showed it clearly being wrapped with the rain by the RFD flank and honestly, there was no full condensation funnel from cloud to ground. Then, as it moved on east towards Donelson and Hermitage, it appears to grow into a large v-shape, almost wedge.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 03, 2020, 08:21:30 PM
After seeing what I've seen since 1:30am last night in person, I'd be shocked if Mt Juliet is anything less than EF-4.

Post Merge: March 03, 2020, 05:45:37 PM
Just to re-hash my night:
I live off OHB in Hermitage just south of 40. Left my apartment and just sat at the Shell gas station nearby & just monitored to the north...thought I was at a fairly safe distance. Moved further north over 40 and parked in the median in front of Tristar Med Center. I was there for maybe 5 minutes. Started to hear the faint vacuum sound grow louder and then began to see blue-green flashes off in the distance...I quickly realized they were working there way towards me. Managed to see a slight illumination of the top half of the funnel. High-tailed it south toward the OHB bridge at about 60 in sideways rain as everything goes black(while on the phone with OHX relaying what is happening). Get back to the apartment, monitor radar and wait for it to pass through Mt Juliet...I already knew what was happening. It was almost like a 6th sense.
Headed up to Mt Juliet about 1:30, all the while seeing the illuminated funnel as the lightning flashed traveling E on 40.

I'm too **** tired to type anymore I'll finish it later.

some of mt Juliet and cookville does look like some possible ef4 stuff....any prelims on Lebanon?
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: ChrisPC on March 03, 2020, 08:48:52 PM
I didnít think much of the cell, until the hook formed around John C. Tune Airport. I realized it was heading right down 40! I live just less than a mile north of 40. I could have easily seen it from my back deck, but I was in the closet with my wife and kids. I heard/felt the low rumble, the windows shaking, and the transformers popping.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 08:59:17 PM
Iím hoping someone can help me understand how this type tornado was possible? The environment did not seem like the ingredients were there.  So what changed?  Was there a boundary layer there?  Especially for it to get stronger as it went into Cookeville.  Where the atmosphere should have been cooler.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Scot on March 03, 2020, 09:08:25 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200304/d051a968b28236fef19467fa16d3b2bd.jpg)

Prayers for them please. I just cannot imagine.  Iím heartbroken.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 09:15:18 PM
From Fox 17:

Quote
WZTV FOX 17 News, Nashville
 
TENNESSEE TORNADO UNACCOUNTED FOR - FLOOD YOUR FEEDS: Make sure friends and family see this! Here are the names of 77 people still unaccounted for after a deadly tornado ripped through Putnam County, killing adults and children: https://bit.ly/2vs5mht

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 09:19:24 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200304/d051a968b28236fef19467fa16d3b2bd.jpg)

Prayers for them please. I just cannot imagine.  Iím heartbroken.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think also the wife has passed away in surgery awhile ago.  The baby is in critical condition.  The father also. 
My niece who works in hospital said 22 are on ventilators.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2020, 09:24:24 PM
Y'all, take second to hug your kids, hug your wife, tell your friends you appreciate them.  Tell those close to you that you love them.  The next day, next hour, next minute isnt guaranteed.  Our brothers and sisters across this great state dont have that option anymore.  Respect one another, care for one another, appreciate one another.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2020, 09:26:30 PM
Quote
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
635 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

...NWS Continues Surveying Storm Damage in Middle Tennessee...

Survey teams today across Davidson, Wilson, and Smith Counties
have found the following:

John C Tune area: EF-2 (130 mph)
Germantown/North Nashville: EF-2 (125 mph)
East Nashville/Five Points: EF-3 (136-140 mph)
Donelson: EF-3 (160-165 mph)
Mt. Juliet: EF-3 (155-160 mph)
Lebanon in Smith County: EF-1

Please note: This is NOT a tornado count. We will work internally
to determine if we can connect damage paths from today`s surveys.
It is clear, however, that an EF-3 tornado impacted the Nashville
Metro area early this morning.

Storm surveys will continue on Wednesday with teams working in
Davidson and Wilson Counties. NWS Nashville still needs to survey
damage in Putnam County. This survey will begin once it becomes
safe to do so. Information is being released as soon as specific
locations are surveyed, but it will take considerable time to
cover all locations and make final conclusions. Results may be
adjusted over the coming days. Details and maps will be released
as soon as possible.

We ask for patience as these surveys take place. You can monitor
our website and social media posts from the National Weather
Service in Nashville for updates over the next couple of days.

$$

Schaper
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: TNHunter on March 03, 2020, 09:35:00 PM
Y'all, take second to hug your kids, hug your wife, tell your friends you appreciate them.  Tell those close to you that you love them.  The next day, next hour, next minute isnt guaranteed.  Our brothers and sisters across this great state dont have that option anymore.  Respect one another, care for one another, appreciate one another.

Could not have said it better.  Such a terrible situation, so sad. These storms are just ridiculous, sucks they even occur.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 03, 2020, 09:49:30 PM
From Fox 17:

(Attachment Link)

Unfortunately this lost is increasing at this time.  Many in Cookeville are not seeing people they thought would be on it.  Also my nephew who is part of helping in that area has told me there is 8-10 feet piles of rubble they can not move yet.  Needing equipment.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 08:12:02 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200304/d051a968b28236fef19467fa16d3b2bd.jpg)

Prayers for them please. I just cannot imagine.  Iím heartbroken.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I am a person of faith, but even still sometimes in times like this you have to look up at the heavens and ask why this happened, and I cannot imagine what this family is going through, a precious little baby girl is gone because of a stupid storm, so unfair :(, that family picture and her little smile is never gonna leave my mind now :(

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 08:23:30 AM
Iím hoping someone can help me understand how this type tornado was possible? The environment did not seem like the ingredients were there.  So what changed?  Was there a boundary layer there?  Especially for it to get stronger as it went into Cookeville.  Where the atmosphere should have been cooler.

that is what I have been asking as well, it makes no sense, nothing was there to indicate anything like that could happen according to spc and nws, maybe a quick spin up but that's it, heck cookville area wasn't even under ANY tornado probabilities at all from the spc let alone a strong to violent supercell, and middle Tennessee was only under 2% prob with no hatched area for anything significant.

Local mets take a lot of their cues from the nws / spc  for severe weather so the potential was downplayed, nobody really had their alert up for anything like this so everybody was caught off guard , weather is unpredictable but this one really seems like a Catastrophic miss on their part, they missed something....I will be interested to see if they ever discuss this...but bless their hearts and I appreciate the work they did yesterday staying on the air for as long as they did, you know they are just as heartbroken as anybody else
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: BRUCE on March 04, 2020, 08:31:04 AM
I am a person of faith, but even still sometimes in times like this you have to look up at the heavens and ask why this happened, and I cannot imagine what this family is going through, a precious little baby girl is gone because of a stupid storm, so unfair :(, that family picture and her little smile is never gonna leave my mind now :(

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 08:23:30 AM
that is what I have been asking as well, it makes no sense, nothing was there to indicate anything like that could happen according to spc and nws, maybe a quick spin up but that's it, heck cookville area wasn't even under ANY tornado probabilities at all from the spc let alone a strong to violent supercell, and middle Tennessee was only under 2% prob with no hatched area for anything significant.

Local mets take a lot of their cues from the nws / spc  for severe weather so the potential was downplayed, nobody really had their alert up for anything like this so everybody was caught off guard , weather is unpredictable but this one really seems like a Catastrophic miss on their part, they missed something....I will be interested to see if they ever discuss this...but bless their hearts and I appreciate the work they did yesterday staying on the air for as long as they did, you know they are just as heartbroken as anybody else
and again all you got to do is read Andy s late afternoon post... square on... but thatís beside the point now. God has a plan.  God bless families involved
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: TNHunter on March 04, 2020, 08:42:53 AM
and again all you got to do is read Andy s late afternoon post... square on... but thatís beside the point now. God has a plan.  God bless families involved

Andy did say it was a possibility.  But I don't know many people of the general public that would check this forum for a run down on what to expect.  Unless Andy is a local Met for that area, nobody would have seen his prediction. 

Are the casualties so high because people just weren't in their safe locations of their house and they were caught off guard?  I hope to learn from this event, appears to be an abnormally high number of casualties. 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 08:54:26 AM
Andy did say it was a possibility.  But I don't know many people of the general public that would check this forum for a run down on what to expect.  Unless Andy is a local Met for that area, nobody would have seen his prediction. 

Are the casualties so high because people just weren't in their safe locations of their house and they were caught off guard?  I hope to learn from this event, appears to be an abnormally high number of casualties.

middle of the night and event was downplayed since nobody expected anything more than a few pockets of hail or a damaging wind gust is my opinion....and 99% of Tennessee doesn't know a thing about this forum, it takes nws/spc and local mets to alert general public an nobody saw anything like this happening on that level...

not blaming because you cannot always be right, but something was missed by all three of those entities , again east of Nashville had "0%" tornado probs , and yet a strong/violent supercell took at least 19 lives in Putnam county, any way you look at it, that is a horrible failure, and like any job it is worth reviewing to see what went wrong in forecasting
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 09:25:01 AM
middle of the night and event was downplayed since nobody expected anything more than a few pockets of hail or a damaging wind gust is my opinion....and 99% of Tennessee doesn't know a thing about this forum, it takes nws/spc and local mets to alert general public an nobody saw anything like this happening on that level...

not blaming because you cannot always be right, but something was missed by all three of those entities , again east of Nashville had "0%" tornado probs , and yet a strong/violent supercell took at least 19 lives in Putnam county, any way you look at it, that is a horrible failure, and like any job it is worth reviewing to see what went wrong in forecasting

That supercell formed just east of the Mississippi well inside the SLIGHT risk contour and well inside the tornado risk contours.  Nobody could've forseen this rogue supercell would last the entire trip across the state.  But it did.  The SPC wasn't going to extend the risk just because of one storm that went rogue.  Was it a dangerous storm?  Yes, but local news outlets were on it wall-to-wall.  Andy highlighted the parameter space perfectly.  This storm got rooted to the surface, took advantage of favorable wind fields and available moisture and went ape- ::poo:: .  Nobody dropped the ball.  An ENHANCED risk would've helped no one.  A multitude of reasons can be given that led to these people being killed, but blaming the weather enterprise shouldn't be one of them.

In case you missed it, here's Andy's post:
Quote
W/Middle TN could get rather interesting tonight just looking at some of the progged RAP/HRRR soundings. What we have is a juxtaposition of very cold air aloft (500 mb temps approaching -20˚C) with resulting fat CAPE profiles despite somewhat marginal low level thermos, and very strong deep layer shear favoring long-lived supercells with very large hail.

Tornado potential is a bit more unclear, especially if the degree of cooling after dark sets in too quickly (or should moisture underperform somewhat). I wouldn't trust this in Dixie. Low level helicity rapidly increases post-00z with a 40-50 kt WSW LLJ and near southerly surface winds. Should we still have discrete, surface based cells by 01-02z, I would not be shocked to see a tornado or two (perhaps even a strong tornado) given favorable low level shear and considerable 0-3 km CAPE.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 09:37:57 AM
That supercell formed just east of the Mississippi well inside the SLIGHT risk contour and well inside the tornado risk contours.  Nobody could've forseen this rogue supercell would last the entire trip across the state.  But it did.  The SPC wasn't going to extend the risk just because of one storm that went rogue.  Was it a dangerous storm?  Yes, but local news outlets were on it wall-to-wall.  Andy highlighted the parameter space perfectly.  This storm got rooted to the surface, took advantage of favorable wind fields and available moisture and went ape- ::poo:: .  Nobody dropped the ball.  An ENHANCED risk would've helped no one.  A multitude of reasons can be given that led to these people being killed, but blaming the weather enterprise shouldn't be one of them.

In case you missed it, here's Andy's post:

never "blamed" , and everybody entitled to their opinion, I just feel like something was missed, again I am no meteorologist and andy had a great post but that doesn't count to notifying the general public...Ö.I think 95% of the reason of the death toll is the fact it was the middle of the night
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 09:56:46 AM
never "blamed" , and everybody entitled to their opinion, I just feel like something was missed, again I am no meteorologist and andy had a great post but that doesn't count to notifying the general public...Ö.I think 95% of the reason of the death toll is the fact it was the middle of the night

The tone of your post intimated you were blaming the SPC/NWS for not getting the alert out.  If I misread that I apologize, but I'm not sure what more the weather enterprise could've done.  The coverage of the storm was wall-to-wall.  I'm sure cellphone alerts were sent.  However, I'm sure some of these people had their phones on DND, vibrate, silent, etc (****, the Nashville mayor didn't know about his city until someone banged on his door at 3am).  How many of these families had weather radios?  How many heard the alerts and dismissed them?  I'm willing to bet quite a few (research indicates that the 'It won't happen to me' feeling of invincibility is 100% legit).  Yes, there were some people that did everything right and still ended up dying.  It's unfortunate, but it's gonna happen in Dixie.  The combo of nocturnal storm activity and population density is quite often a killer.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on March 04, 2020, 10:07:07 AM
My  ::twocents:: on the start of it over here. Jackson news was on the rotation of the storm long before a warning was ever put out. Carol county had a severe warning but no tornado warning. Here in Benton we had 4 minutes from warning until our dispatch lit up with 911 calls. Seems the could have put out the warning much sooner.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 10:22:21 AM
My  ::twocents:: on the start of it over here. Jackson news was on the rotation of the storm long before a warning was ever put out. Carol county had a severe warning but no tornado warning. Here in Benton we had 4 minutes from warning until our dispatch lit up with 911 calls. Seems the could have put out the warning much sooner.

There is something to that.  I think the thing was 1) moving quickly and 2) cycling rapidly.  Forward motion was 45-55mph, which is typical of southern supercells, and the warning for Nashville came out a few minutes before initial touchdown, but had been warned while over Dickson/Hickman Cos.   
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 10:28:14 AM
The tone of your post intimated you were blaming the SPC/NWS for not getting the alert out.  If I misread that I apologize, but I'm not sure what more the weather enterprise could've done.  The coverage of the storm was wall-to-wall.  I'm sure cellphone alerts were sent.  However, I'm sure some of these people had their phones on DND, vibrate, silent, etc (****, the Nashville mayor didn't know about his city until someone banged on his door at 3am).  How many of these families had weather radios?  How many heard the alerts and dismissed them?  I'm willing to bet quite a few (research indicates that the 'It won't happen to me' feeling of invincibility is 100% legit).  Yes, there were some people that did everything right and still ended up dying.  It's unfortunate, but it's gonna happen in Dixie.  The combo of nocturnal storm activity and population density is quite often a killer.

I guess I just rambled cause I feel like we are helpless sometimes and want to fix things :(  James spann ends up doing the same thing everytime something like this happens in Alabama he ends up blaming himself, he beat himself up real bad in 2011.

In the end it is up to us as individuals to pay attention to the weather I guess though in honesty

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 10:29:41 AM
There is something to that.  I think the thing was 1) moving quickly and 2) cycling rapidly.  Forward motion was 45-55mph, which is typical of southern supercells, and the warning for Nashville came out a few minutes before initial touchdown, but had been warned while over Dickson/Hickman Cos.

Hey y'all I am interested in how tornado emergencies are issued, and was there one issued with this storm? to me I don't think it makes a difference , but seems to me a confirmed tornado heading into a large metro would constitute the highest warning level possible?
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2020, 10:32:25 AM
I got into a ďdebateĒ with a person on social media last night (wisely or not- I tend to avoid it, but I was drawn into it because I was trying to help with an explanation).

The person asked/complained that they didnít get any cell phone alerts or anything in our specific area when the tornado hit the affected areas.

I explained that we were never under a warning (nor should we have been... the tornadic cell never approached our immediate area). I tried to explain the criteria for warnings and why we werenít warned. I was just trying to bring insight from the NWSís perspective, but the person argued with me that the tornado was only X miles from us and ďit could have gone anywhere.Ē

I let her have the last word as it was proving pointless.

The point is- people arenít going to understand how this all works and you canít win against their perception of things.

I have some more thoughts/observations about what occurred that night, but Iíll post more later.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 10:35:42 AM
Quote
Hey y'all I am interested in how tornado emergencies are issued, and was there one issued with this storm? to me I don't think it makes a difference , but seems to me a confirmed tornado heading into a large metro would constitute the highest warning level possible?

I asked this same question to OHX yesterday.  A PDS warning is for confirmed EF2/3 and a TORe is for confirmed EF4/5.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: dwagner88 on March 04, 2020, 10:38:28 AM
I asked this same question to OHX yesterday.  A PDS warning is for confirmed EF2/3 and a TORe is for confirmed EF4/5.
How can you have a confirmed EF-4/5 in the middle of the warning process? That doesn't get determined until days later.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 10:46:08 AM
How can you have a confirmed EF-4/5 in the middle of the warning process? That doesn't get determined until days later.

interesting, I remember one issued for maury county Tennessee about 9 or 10 years ago for just a radar indicated rotation close to columbia and nothing ever really touched down....they must have changed protocols?
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 10:50:24 AM
How can you have a confirmed EF-4/5 in the middle of the warning process? That doesn't get determined until days later.

Radar-estimated wind speeds?  I don't know....
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 04, 2020, 10:52:58 AM
As far as the "hows" everyone is asking about - it's not like this magically happened out of thin air.  The shear present was very high at 150+ knots in places.  High shear low cape environments can and have produced higher end tornadoes and a lot of people have studied this.  Another factor is the nocturnal warm front which can complicate the thermodynamics involved at the boundary layer.  All of this is well studied, but still not completely figured out so the degree of uncertainty forecasting these scenarios is higher than average.

IMO the slight risk verified - people are just so use to dismissing these. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC starts automatically issuing enhanced risk in these high shear low cape setups going forward.  Part of the reason this is so shocking is because the cell tracked along I-40 and essentially hit population centers along the way.  If the cell tracked 75 miles further south the death toll would be less and people would be much less shocked.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 04, 2020, 11:04:21 AM
Just FYI, Mt Juliet is getting upgraded to EF-4. Don't ask me how I know.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2020, 11:07:35 AM
I asked this same question to OHX yesterday.  A PDS warning is for confirmed EF2/3 and a TORe is for confirmed EF4/5.

When was the last NWS-issued TOR Emergency? I recall 4/27/11 and the El Reno, OK tornado in 2013.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 11:10:12 AM
As far as the "hows" everyone is asking about - it's not like this magically happened out of thin air.  The shear present was very high at 150+ knots in places.  High shear low cape environments can and have produced higher end tornadoes and a lot of people have studied this.  Another factor is the nocturnal warm front which can complicate the thermodynamics involved at the boundary layer.  All of this is well studied, but still not completely figured out so the degree of uncertainty forecasting these scenarios is higher than average.

IMO the slight risk verified - people are just so use to dismissing these. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC starts automatically issuing enhanced risk in these high shear low cape setups going forward.  Part of the reason this is so shocking is because the cell tracked along I-40 and essentially hit population centers along the way.  If the cell tracked 75 miles further south the death toll would be less and people would be much less shocked.

75 miles south would've put it in my living room.  No thanks.   ;D

I'm not sure Joe Q. Public knows the difference between a SLIGHT risk or an ENHANCED risk.  Moreover, 98% of people don't know what the weather's gonna do day-to-day without checking the app on their phone.  I'm afraid if the SPC starts issuing ENH risks for low CAPE/high shear events, they'll be downplayed due to the number of events we have that fit that category.  I think we just witnessed a one-off event that unfortunately hit populated areas.

And yes, Spann takes it serious when something like this happens in his viewing area.  He always asks what he could've done differently.  I think everyone involved during this event is thinking that, but honestly, the weather enterprise did all they could.

Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2020, 11:10:31 AM
When was the last NWS-issued TOR Emergency? I recall 4/27/11 and the El Reno, OK tornado in 2013.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornado_emergencies

Nvm, found a Wiki!
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 11:18:07 AM
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornado_emergencies

Nvm, found a Wiki!

 I checked wiki earlier also it shows the maury county tornado emergency when nothing even touched down....maybe that's why ohx is so conservative now on tornado emergencies ?
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 11:24:08 AM
I checked wiki earlier also it shows the maury county tornado emergency when nothing even touched down....maybe that's why ohx is so conservative now on tornado emergencies ?

There will be times when the radar presentation screams massive tornado and nothing drops.  I think that happened during the March 3, 2012 event... The supercell that dropped tennis balls across W Davidson Co and moved into downtown looked tremendous on radar but didn't drop due to high(er) LCLs.  I think I'm remembering that right.....who knows at this point.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 11:28:58 AM
There will be times when the radar presentation screams massive tornado and nothing drops.  I think that happened during the March 3, 2012 event... The supercell that dropped tennis balls across W Davidson Co and moved into downtown looked tremendous on radar but didn't drop due to high(er) LCLs.  I think I'm remembering that right.....who knows at this point.

I remember that one also.....all in all this just reinforces the thought that it only takes ONE storm in your neighborhood to change things forever
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2020, 11:29:30 AM
The tone of your post intimated you were blaming the SPC/NWS for not getting the alert out.  If I misread that I apologize, but I'm not sure what more the weather enterprise could've done.  The coverage of the storm was wall-to-wall.  I'm sure cellphone alerts were sent.  However, I'm sure some of these people had their phones on DND, vibrate, silent, etc (****, the Nashville mayor didn't know about his city until someone banged on his door at 3am).  How many of these families had weather radios?  How many heard the alerts and dismissed them?  I'm willing to bet quite a few (research indicates that the 'It won't happen to me' feeling of invincibility is 100% legit).  Yes, there were some people that did everything right and still ended up dying.  It's unfortunate, but it's gonna happen in Dixie.  The combo of nocturnal storm activity and population density is quite often a killer.

I again want to say thank you to this forum and to Andy.  Also I want to say thank you to the TV stations.  My brother was one of those ďIt wonít happen to meĒ individuals.  My mom and sister all were asleep with their phones on vibrate.  I got a hold of my mom with 15 min before it arrived at her house.  I called my brother 3 times.  He picked up on the 3rd vibration and said what is wrong?  He knew something was up with me calling so many times.  He and his family made it to the downstairs bathroom as tornado hit their house.  My sis I called her cell phone 2 times.  She still has a home phone so had to reach her by it.  She was shocked that our brother house had been hit and it was heading her way in Cookeville.  One question she does have is.  Her phone alert never went off.  Nor her daughter.  Now the weíre on vibrate so not sure it would have mattered.  So because of the news stations I was able to alert my family and possibly save my brothers family.  When I was with them yesterday his daughters thanked me.  My sister did also and my mom.  They always said I loved wx and would always give them heads up but nothing had ever happened.  They had gotten where they dismissed me.  Well they all said yesterday they will never not listen to me.  Also my brother in law bought a wx radio yesterday!  One thing we can all now take noted is the fact that in the type of environment even if slight or marginal never think a tornado can not form.  Even if labeled as only a spin up.  If the environment has just enough it can create a monster like the one Monday night.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 04, 2020, 11:30:28 AM
75 miles south would've put it in my living room.  No thanks.   ;D

I'm not sure Joe Q. Public knows the difference between a SLIGHT risk or an ENHANCED risk.  Moreover, 98% of people don't know what the weather's gonna do day-to-day without checking the app on their phone.  I'm afraid if the SPC starts issuing ENH risks for low CAPE/high shear events, they'll be downplayed due to the number of events we have that fit that category.  I think we just witnessed a one-off event that unfortunately hit populated areas.

And yes, Spann takes it serious when something like this happens in his viewing area.  He always asks what he could've done differently.  I think everyone involved during this event is thinking that, but honestly, the weather enterprise did all they could.

Oh I agree completely the SPC and weather folks in general did all they could and this disconnect is with the general public not following the weather.  The enhanced risk wouldn't likely change anything but we live in a world of governing by knee jerk reactions and some suit will force the SPC's hand.

Bottom line is being an adult you and your children's lives are in your hands and paying  attention to the weather and doing things like getting a weather radio is on you.  I won't say more out of sensitivity to the victims.  Ultimately all we can do as enthusiasts is spread the word the best we can and look out for our own friends and family.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2020, 11:36:20 AM
Just FYI, Mt Juliet is getting upgraded to EF-4. Don't ask me how I know.

Will be interesting the Cookeville rating.  My nephew who has seen first had the damage said itís in the realm of possibility it hit EF5.  I said those are not given out easily.  Maybe high end EF4.  Seeing it first hand and some pics it cleaned the whole ground.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 11:39:47 AM
Just FYI, Mt Juliet is getting upgraded to EF-4. Don't ask me how I know.

You know we have to ask....how do you know?
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 11:40:51 AM
I again want to say thank you to this forum and to Andy.  Also I want to say thank you to the TV stations.  My brother was one of those ďIt wonít happen to meĒ individuals.  My mom and sister all were asleep with their phones on vibrate.  I got a hold of my mom with 15 min before it arrived at her house.  I called my brother 3 times.  He picked up on the 3rd vibration and said what is wrong?  He knew something was up with me calling so many times.  He and his family made it to the downstairs bathroom as tornado hit their house.  My sis I called her cell phone 2 times.  She still has a home phone so had to reach her by it.  She was shocked that our brother house had been hit and it was heading her way in Cookeville.  One question she does have is.  Her phone alert never went off.  Nor her daughter.  Now the weíre on vibrate so not sure it would have mattered.  So because of the news stations I was able to alert my family and possibly save my brothers family.  When I was with them yesterday his daughters thanked me.  My sister did also and my mom.  They always said I loved wx and would always give them heads up but nothing had ever happened.  They had gotten where they dismissed me.  Well they all said yesterday they will never not listen to me.  Also my brother in law bought a wx radio yesterday!  One thing we can all now take noted is the fact that in the type of environment even if slight or marginal never think a tornado can not form.  Even if labeled as only a spin up.  If the environment has just enough it can create a monster like the one Monday night.

that's my takeaway as well now, "anything" is possible. With a marginal/slight risk I never thought a long track was possible and I do think this was a 1 in a 1,000 type situation where something happened to that storm in the marginal environment and it just blew up into a monster and then moved into an area that was not even highlighted for a tornado risk (Putnam) and dropped another monster tornado , going forward I just want to learn more on how it happened.

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 11:41:41 AM
You know we have to ask....how do you know?

some of that de barking really looked ef4'ish

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 11:43:06 AM
Will be interesting the Cookeville rating.  My nephew who has seen first had the damage said itís in the realm of possibility it hit EF5.  I said those are not given out easily.  Maybe high end EF4.  Seeing it first hand and some pics it cleaned the whole ground.

I haven't been able to find good images of the Cookeville damage much....given the Putnam county death toll though , it had to be bad :(
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2020, 11:44:21 AM
They have found another body in Cookeville. Was found buried.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 11:48:18 AM
They have found another body in Cookeville.

I am scared to think of what is going to be discovered in the next 24-48 hours :(
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: ChrisPC on March 04, 2020, 11:49:27 AM
I just sat in traffic for 20 minutes in Hermitage, going to work. The high voltage poles are folded like plastic straws. Those are two feet wide! Old brick construction is heavily damaged, with walls falling in. Cedar trees are shredded. High EF-3, easily.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 04, 2020, 11:49:50 AM
It's really time to start putting some hard blame on local tv stations. There really needs to be a call to action here. IMHO, they are the responsible party and deserve the most blame for a generally complacent public when it comes to severe weather events, at least around Nashville Metro. Just about every weather event here is a "Code Red Weather Alert." This is repeated over and over for just general thunderstorms, low threat activity and even extreme cold and heat.

I don't know about you all, but when I hear something said over and over again, it doesn't register or stand out anymore, especially if there have been several times when nothing has previously happened at all.

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 11:53:05 AM
You know we have to ask....how do you know?

NWS is here conducting surveys  ;)
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 04, 2020, 11:57:36 AM
I got into a ďdebateĒ with a person on social media last night (wisely or not- I tend to avoid it, but I was drawn into it because I was trying to help with an explanation).

The person asked/complained that they didnít get any cell phone alerts or anything in our specific area when the tornado hit the affected areas.

I explained that we were never under a warning (nor should we have been... the tornadic cell never approached our immediate area). I tried to explain the criteria for warnings and why we werenít warned. I was just trying to bring insight from the NWSís perspective, but the person argued with me that the tornado was only X miles from us and ďit could have gone anywhere.Ē

I let her have the last word as it was proving pointless.

The point is- people arenít going to understand how this all works and you canít win against their perception of things.

I have some more thoughts/observations about what occurred that night, but Iíll post more later.
I never count on pay any attention to cell phone alerts. There has been a few times we have had warnings with no alert. Also I received 3 the other night for warnings 100 miles to the north in Missouri.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 12:04:43 PM
so I just saw Cookeville and wilson county photos that I had not seen yet on the weather channel, it has to be mid range ef4 damage in those places, there are swaths of multiple homes that are obliterated :(

even a couple of spots where only slabs remain :(
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2020, 12:12:25 PM
Not sure what this means but they have asked all volunteers to leave the Cookeville areas hit. 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 04, 2020, 12:12:27 PM
I never count on pay any attention to cell phone alerts. There has been a few times we have had warnings with no alert. Also I received 3 the other night for warnings 100 miles to the north in Missouri.

Plus people put their phones on mute at night, cell phone towers can be disabled by winds or power loss, etc.  A wx radio that lives in your bedroom is what people really need.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: ChrisPC on March 04, 2020, 12:21:54 PM
I heard the Cheatham warning on my weather radio and wasnít worried. It was a bit of a nuisance. Weak rotation, very common. 10 minutes later, I heard the PDS, and saw the hook echo and debris ball on RadarScope. The phones went off before the radio! It was going down Highway 70, and I live just off it. I got the family and hunkered down under our staircase. Then, the rumble came...
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: pandadug on March 04, 2020, 12:30:04 PM
I remember when this stuff came through la vergne that night, it looked like the line had passed about 7:00pm and i was never really worried about the intensity that i had seen. I remember, however, a storm that was up in kentuky that looked to me like a supercell with a hook. I don't remember seeing anything in tn where the tornadic storm must have started.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 04, 2020, 12:30:25 PM
Not sure what this means but they have asked all volunteers to leave the Cookeville areas hit.
That's ominous.   :(
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 12:34:32 PM
I remember when this stuff came through la vergne that night, it looked like the line had passed about 7:00pm and i was never really worried about the intensity that i had seen. I remember, however, a storm that was up in kentuky that looked to me like a supercell with a hook. I don't remember seeing anything in tn where the tornadic storm must have started.

right before I went to bed around 10pm there was a little pop up shower nnear dyersburgÖ.it ended up blowing up and heading due east

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 12:35:12 PM
Not sure what this means but they have asked all volunteers to leave the Cookeville areas hit.

Oh no, I can only think of one reason :(
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2020, 12:48:04 PM
Good Heavens, I hate tornadoes.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: TNHunter on March 04, 2020, 01:08:55 PM

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 12:35:12 PM
Oh no, I can only think of one reason :(

Could be that volunteers are getting in the way of the professionals right now that need to do their jobs.  I know people are asked to leave because of that at times.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 01:15:04 PM
Plus people put their phones on mute at night, cell phone towers can be disabled by winds or power loss, etc.  A wx radio that lives in your bedroom is what people really need.

Until April 27, 2011 happens and the communications were wiped out by earlier rounds of convection.  I agree that a wx radio is the most reliable and cell service is typically available.  The only true way to know what's going on is to stay connected to *something* for the duration.  Is that feasible, though?  That's the $64,000 question.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: SluggerWx on March 04, 2020, 01:30:36 PM
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornado_emergencies

Nvm, found a Wiki!

Side note, thanks for the link. Back when I lived in Nashville (when the EF-4 went through 'Boro) I dove into a history/frequency of EF-4 & EF-5 tornadoes by year. I think Greensburg and Parkersburg had just hit at the EF-5 scale in the previous years, but I remember researching past tornadoes and generally realizing that EF-4 tornadoes occurred a little more frequently than I thought.

Your link of TORe's shows a little more recent look into some of the EF-4s in the last 10 years, and I was surprised again about how more frequently they occur than I realized.

While we haven't seen an 'official' EF-5 since 2013, outside of 2018 there have been at least 2 EF-4's every year since 2013.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 01:33:08 PM
Little more info about TORe's from OHX.

"on the tornado emergencies question, our criteria for those is multiple confirmed reports, plus a TDS, along with radar max rotational velocity and tds height near the typical EF4+ range (20,000 feet+)"

Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 01:38:17 PM
Little more info about TORe's from OHX.

"on the tornado emergencies question, our criteria for those is multiple confirmed reports, plus a TDS, along with radar max rotational velocity and tds height near the typical EF4+ range (20,000 feet+)"

thanks for the info!. I think that is not the best criteria to go by, but ohx is usually conservative though so that makes sense

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 01:39:42 PM
Side note, thanks for the link. Back when I lived in Nashville (when the EF-4 went through 'Boro) I dove into a history/frequency of EF-4 & EF-5 tornadoes by year. I think Greensburg and Parkersburg had just hit at the EF-5 scale in the previous years, but I remember researching past tornadoes and generally realizing that EF-4 tornadoes occurred a little more frequently than I thought.

Your link of TORe's shows a little more recent look into some of the EF-4s in the last 10 years, and I was surprised again about how more frequently they occur than I realized.

While we haven't seen an 'official' EF-5 since 2013, outside of 2018 there have been at least 2 EF-4's every year since 2013.

you are right now that I think of it too....they are a little more common than I thought....heck pilger outbreak had the twin ef4 supercell ( talk about scary)
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: SluggerWx on March 04, 2020, 01:51:29 PM
I again want to say thank you to this forum and to Andy.  Also I want to say thank you to the TV stations.  My brother was one of those ďIt wonít happen to meĒ individuals.  My mom and sister all were asleep with their phones on vibrate.  I got a hold of my mom with 15 min before it arrived at her house.  I called my brother 3 times.  He picked up on the 3rd vibration and said what is wrong?  He knew something was up with me calling so many times.  He and his family made it to the downstairs bathroom as tornado hit their house.  My sis I called her cell phone 2 times.  She still has a home phone so had to reach her by it.  She was shocked that our brother house had been hit and it was heading her way in Cookeville.  One question she does have is.  Her phone alert never went off.  Nor her daughter.  Now the weíre on vibrate so not sure it would have mattered.  So because of the news stations I was able to alert my family and possibly save my brothers family.  When I was with them yesterday his daughters thanked me.  My sister did also and my mom.  They always said I loved wx and would always give them heads up but nothing had ever happened.  They had gotten where they dismissed me.  Well they all said yesterday they will never not listen to me.  Also my brother in law bought a wx radio yesterday!  One thing we can all now take noted is the fact that in the type of environment even if slight or marginal never think a tornado can not form.  Even if labeled as only a spin up.  If the environment has just enough it can create a monster like the one Monday night.

Matthew - thank you so much for sharing! I remember reading after either Joplin or Moore ('13) that a significant contributing factor in reducing casualties was 'getting of the x' or taking some preventative precaution because of direct communication from a family/friend.

They are lucky to have you, and this approach continues to prove valuable in preventing additional tragedy.

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 01:55:44 PM
Little more info about TORe's from OHX.

"on the tornado emergencies question, our criteria for those is multiple confirmed reports, plus a TDS, along with radar max rotational velocity and tds height near the typical EF4+ range (20,000 feet+)"

That's an interesting snippet I never knew. Local WFOs have some active measures/knowledge/KPIs for projecting intensity based on radar returns.

In this example:
-Maxed velocity couplet
-TDS
-Debris signature @ 20,000 ft

That's interesting.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 02:07:24 PM
Matthew - thank you so much for sharing! I remember reading after either Joplin or Moore ('13) that a significant contributing factor in reducing casualties was 'getting of the x' or taking some preventative precaution because of direct communication from a family/friend.

They are lucky to have you, and this approach continues to prove valuable in preventing additional tragedy.

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 01:55:44 PM
That's an interesting snippet I never knew. Local WFOs have some active measures/knowledge/KPIs for projecting intensity based on radar returns.

In this example:
-Maxed velocity couplet
-TDS
-Debris signature @ 20,000 ft

That's interesting.

the wording bothered me just a tiny bit unless I am misreading it Ö. near ef4+ range.....an ef2 or 3 in a heavily populated area such as nashville is very dangerous also imo? But either way there were good warnings out last night whether tor e or not they did do the best they could
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: andyhb on March 04, 2020, 02:08:23 PM
Little more info about TORe's from OHX.

"on the tornado emergencies question, our criteria for those is multiple confirmed reports, plus a TDS, along with radar max rotational velocity and tds height near the typical EF4+ range (20,000 feet+)"

I'm going to call this out as nonsensically strict. An EF3 is perfectly capable of A) serious damage and B) a lot of fatalities. All they need to do is look at previous cases in their area (Gallatin 4/7/06, Lafayette 2/5/08) for proof of that. Plus, the TDS height thing is not an exact science, especially when characteristics of the actual parent storm itself can affect the max height a TDS reaches. It's a good measure for sure, but not meant to be a be-all/end-all. You can't set strict boundaries on experimental products like that (or even operational products).
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 02:13:41 PM
I'm going to call this out as nonsensically strict. An EF3 is perfectly capable of A) serious damage and B) a lot of fatalities. All they need to do is look at previous cases in their area (Gallatin 4/7/06, Lafayette 2/5/08) for proof of that. Plus, the TDS height thing is not an exact science, especially when characteristics of the actual parent storm itself can affect the max height a TDS reaches. It's a good measure for sure, but not meant to be a be-all/end-all. You can't set strict boundaries on experimental products like that (or even operational products).

I completely agree with you, I don't like the wording of that criteria, plus last night debris was floated 20,000 in air at just ef2 strength so that kind of throws that criteria off imo
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 02:29:01 PM
Capital Weather Gang (WaPo) article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/03/how-deadly-destructive-tornadoes-ravaged-nashville-tuesday/

Also pre-prelim survey in Cookeville reveals at least EF3 damage.  Still trying to access the hardest hit areas.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: BRUCE on March 04, 2020, 02:38:06 PM
I'm going to call this out as nonsensically strict. An EF3 is perfectly capable of A) serious damage and B) a lot of fatalities. All they need to do is look at previous cases in their area (Gallatin 4/7/06, Lafayette 2/5/08) for proof of that. Plus, the TDS height thing is not an exact science, especially when characteristics of the actual parent storm itself can affect the max height a TDS reaches. It's a good measure for sure, but not meant to be a be-all/end-all. You can't set strict boundaries on experimental products like that (or even operational products).
think that Gallatin tornado came on a day 60 percent probs .. that was crazy day
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 02:47:27 PM
think that Gallatin tornado came on a day 60 percent probs .. that was crazy day

yep 60 % probs by the afternoon outlooks....won't ever forget that, bruce I doubt they will ever do that again do you man?.....if they didn't break out the 60% on april 27th then when would they again?
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: BRUCE on March 04, 2020, 02:52:14 PM
yep 60 % probs by the afternoon outlooks....won't ever forget that, bruce I doubt they will ever do that again do you man?.....if they didn't break out the 60% on april 27th then when would they again?
yeah really. I mean everything that blew up on radar that day immediately went rotating
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: andyhb on March 04, 2020, 02:54:34 PM
As awful and destructive as that Cookeville tornado was, it was on a beeline for Tenn Tech before it dissipated...
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 03:12:45 PM
yeah really. I mean everything that blew up on radar that day immediately went rotating

you got that right bruce, I remember the first storm of the afternoon outbreak in alabama being a small shower with no lightning southwest of Cullman alabama, in 10 minutes it had a hail core and tornado warning....never see another day like that again I don't think

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 03:14:34 PM
As awful and destructive as that Cookeville tornado was, it was on a beeline for Tenn Tech before it dissipated...

I noticed that to , what do you think of those hardest hit Putnam county areas where some pics show only slabs and obliterated structures/homes....ef4 around 170-180?
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2020, 03:39:43 PM
It definitely looks like EF4 damage to me, too, gcbama. I suppose it matters whether or not they were brick or wood structures, and whether the homes destroyed were new or old.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: SluggerWx on March 04, 2020, 03:40:58 PM
So I matched the available Putnam Co. aerial footage up with Google Maps. I counted at least 38 foundations wiped clean - another three homes were shifted off their foundations by 50-100 yards.

Notable places on Google Maps:
-4 to 6 homes on the arch/horseshoe part of Charlton Square (two on interior of arch are back-to-back, one with in-ground pool and one with freestanding pool, then the home directly across the street)
-Every home on the south side of Hensley Drive (and the 1st and 3rd on the North side of Hensley Drive if you're turning in from N. McBroom Chapel Road)
-Three homes on Mockingbird Hill Cir
-First four homes on Echo Valley Dr (if turning from W Broad St)
-Echo Valley Market
-First three homes on East side of South Dr (almost across from Dipsy Doodle Drive Inn)
-Every home on Herald Ct (aside from the east-most and southern-most home in the cul-de-sac)

There were some older homes, but the Hensley Dr homes all look pretty new. Everything is just gone on Hensley Drive - literally every home on one side of the street plus two across the street.

Providing this info so you all can see the types of structures that were affected.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 03:42:11 PM
Baxter, TN.  Ground-scouring.  Indicative of EF4.  Survey ongoing.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESS3JcWWoAEAkeO?format=jpg&name=large)

(h/t @AlexApple)

NC5 helo.  I think that'll buff out.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESS-V5YX0Agh89u?format=jpg&name=small)

(h/t @HenryRothenberg)

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 03:56:03 PM
So I matched the available Putnam Co. aerial footage up with Google Maps. I counted at least 38 foundations wiped clean - another three homes were shifted off their foundations by 50-100 yards.

Notable places on Google Maps:
-4 to 6 homes on the arch/horseshoe part of Charlton Square (two on interior of arch are back-to-back, one with in-ground pool and one with freestanding pool, then the home directly across the street)
-Every home on the south side of Hensley Drive (and the 1st and 3rd on the North side of Hensley Drive if you're turning in from N. McBroom Chapel Road)
-Three homes on Mockingbird Hill Cir
-First four homes on Echo Valley Dr (if turning from W Broad St)
-Echo Valley Market
-First three homes on East side of South Dr (almost across from Dipsy Doodle Drive Inn)
-Every home on Herald Ct (aside from the east-most and southern-most home in the cul-de-sac)

There were some older homes, but the Hensley Dr homes all look pretty new. Everything is just gone on Hensley Drive - literally every home on one side of the street plus two across the street.

Providing this info so you all can see the types of structures that were affected.

Wonder how many of those homes were secured to the foundation *correctly*.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: ChrisPC on March 04, 2020, 04:08:32 PM
I wondered why I only saw two TV choppers go over Hermitage yesterday, and not three.  ::wow::
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 04:22:02 PM
We've got a long-tracker. 

Quote
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
420 PM CST WED MAR 4 2020

...UPDATE ON DAVIDSON/WILSON/SMITH COUNTY TORNADO...

NWS SURVEY TEAMS HAVE CONCLUDED THAT ONE LONG-TRACK TORNADO
OCCURRED IN DAVIDSON, WILSON, AND SMITH COUNTIES ON TUESDAY
MORNING. THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO STRETCHED ROUGHLY 50.25 MILES
FROM BEGINNING TO END, STARTING IN THE JOHN C TUNE AREA AND ENDING
3.50 MILES WEST OF GORDONSVILLE.

SURVEY TEAMS ARE CONTINUING TO WORK ON WHERE THIS TORNADO BEGAN
NEAR THE JOHN C TUNE AREA. THE FINAL TORNADO PATH REMAINS SUBJECT
TO REVISION AS TEAMS COMPLETE THEIR SURVEY.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 04, 2020, 04:24:33 PM
I'm going to call this out as nonsensically strict. An EF3 is perfectly capable of A) serious damage and B) a lot of fatalities. All they need to do is look at previous cases in their area (Gallatin 4/7/06, Lafayette 2/5/08) for proof of that. Plus, the TDS height thing is not an exact science, especially when characteristics of the actual parent storm itself can affect the max height a TDS reaches. It's a good measure for sure, but not meant to be a be-all/end-all. You can't set strict boundaries on experimental products like that (or even operational products).
You can add the Dyersburg April 2006 tornado to that list. I still disagree with that EF3 rating but thatís another story for another day
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2020, 04:37:42 PM
Just FYI, Mt Juliet is getting upgraded to EF-4. Don't ask me how I know.

Still waiting on that upgrade.....
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Jilly on March 04, 2020, 04:57:05 PM
Cookeville aerial footage
https://m.facebook.com/MayorRickyShelton/videos/632158534244501
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: joemomma on March 04, 2020, 05:01:10 PM
I do know that the damage out on West Broad (Highway 70) in Cookeville was a mix of newer subdivisions and older, existing homes.  By newer, I would guess in the last 10-15 years.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Jilly on March 04, 2020, 05:06:44 PM
https://www.facebook.com/61878358259/posts/10157922480078260/?d=n
Putnam County Emergency Management Agency
4 hrs
Facebook Message for tornado site volunteers:

An overwhelming number of volunteers have traveled to the site of the tornados to provide cleanup help for the victims of this devastating storm. While this represents our community well and shows the true volunteer spirit of our Upper Cumberland citizens, we now ask that you please stay clear of the area. So many people have showed up to help that it has congested the area and emergency vehicles and workers are unable to get to the areas in need. In the coming days there will be plenty of opportunities and our Emergency Management personnel will provide direction for volunteers wanting to help those in need.

Cookeville Police Chief,
Randy Evans
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2020, 05:28:13 PM
Unfortunately the body found earlier was up in a tree.  Reason for not being seen is he was wrapped in insulation and metal.  Another death was a husband carried his wife out with 2x4 in chest.  Just horrific stories.

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 05:37:53 PM
Cookeville aerial footage
https://m.facebook.com/MayorRickyShelton/videos/632158534244501

You can see the path of tornado when he makes the turn.  Also definitely when that tornado formed it got intense very quickly.  Iím thinking same cell but different tornado if correct.  Maybe the tornado was circulating. I remember there was no warning for some time before issuing it for Putman.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: angrypug on March 04, 2020, 06:16:48 PM
I seldom post but have been around forever and lurk all the time.   I live about two miles from the hardest hit areas here in cookeville.  Even though I keep up with weather more than the general public I was caught off guard by this BUT my phone did alert me with time to get up. In fact, being the weather nerd I am, I actually brought up RadarScope to see what was going on AND even dumber walked out on the back porch.

I had time to get up, get my phone, open radarscope and walk outside. Plenty of time to take shelter if I werenít an idiot. Within 30 seconds on the porch I saw the sky start lighting up with non stop flashes of transformers and at the same time saw radar.  I came to my senses and got downstairs ASAP.

As far as the volunteers, parts of cookeville were at a standstill this morning because of traffic. There may have simply been to many volunteers.

Damage is horrendous. I have no idea about the rating but there are brick homes with nothing left but a concrete slab. There is a large area of damage. We have had tornados in the past but damage was usually confined to a few houses. There is a wide area of severe damage.  Whatever the rating ends up being is actually unimportant, whatever rating it was, it was enough to destroy anything in its path.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: TNHunter on March 04, 2020, 06:48:02 PM
Gosh, just terrible. Continued prayers for those affected. Hopefully this is the only severe event we see for years to come.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: NashRugger on March 04, 2020, 06:50:23 PM
I wondered why I only saw two TV choppers go over Hermitage yesterday, and not three.  ::wow::
Technically, only NC 5 has a news helicopter, which is using a loaner until further notice. THP had both of their choppers up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 06:56:37 PM
I seldom post but have been around forever and lurk all the time.   I live about two miles from the hardest hit areas here in cookeville.  Even though I keep up with weather more than the general public I was caught off guard by this BUT my phone did alert me with time to get up. In fact, being the weather nerd I am, I actually brought up RadarScope to see what was going on AND even dumber walked out on the back porch.

I had time to get up, get my phone, open radarscope and walk outside. Plenty of time to take shelter if I werenít an idiot. Within 30 seconds on the porch I saw the sky start lighting up with non stop flashes of transformers and at the same time saw radar.  I came to my senses and got downstairs ASAP.

As far as the volunteers, parts of cookeville were at a standstill this morning because of traffic. There may have simply been to many volunteers.

Damage is horrendous. I have no idea about the rating but there are brick homes with nothing left but a concrete slab. There is a large area of damage. We have had tornados in the past but damage was usually confined to a few houses. There is a wide area of severe damage.  Whatever the rating ends up being is actually unimportant, whatever rating it was, it was enough to destroy anything in its path.

I am so glad you are ok....sure seems Putnam county got the worst out of this event :(, devestating
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: andyhb on March 04, 2020, 07:07:31 PM
Cookeville/Putnam Co. tornado upgraded to EF4 per NWS Nashville.

https://twitter.com/NWSNashville/status/1235369175700275200
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 07:08:44 PM
Cookeville aerial footage
https://m.facebook.com/MayorRickyShelton/videos/632158534244501

there is decently wide damage path and also within that path I think we can see evidence of a possible multi vortex system several spots within the main path seem to have sustained more intense damage at times...? heartbreaking, and even nws mets say it was not expected, especially that far east of 65 where it just did not seem like it was possible, I am still just stunned

And the Davidson county tornado lasted over 50 miles, we haven't had one like that in the midstate in a long time

Post Merge: March 04, 2020, 07:12:21 PM
Cookeville/Putnam Co. tornado upgraded to EF4 per NWS Nashville.

https://twitter.com/NWSNashville/status/1235369175700275200

Seeing those images I saw today of some homes with just slabs really took my breath away , looked like at the least an ef4......just terrible....I wish things like that would just stay in wide open fields away from civilization
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Nash_LSU on March 04, 2020, 07:22:11 PM
THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO STRETCHED ROUGHLY 50.25 MILES
FROM BEGINNING TO END, STARTING IN THE JOHN C TUNE AREA AND ENDING
3.50 MILES WEST OF GORDONSVILLE.

I'm still newish to weather tracking and always learning, plus my background is not in any sort of science, so maybe someone can answer my question: The tornado started right after the storm dropped off the Highland Rim. It then ran until Gordonsville and stopped right before you get a decent 500' or so elevation change. The tornado then formed again in Baxter and ran to the other side of Cookeville where the Plateau really makes a good climb. Is this just coincidence, or do the significant elevation changes play a part in how a storm can form a tornado and sustain it? It would make sense to me, but I'm certain much smarter people than myself have had that hypothesis and tested it and have an answer. 
Title: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Curt on March 04, 2020, 07:24:25 PM
Was in downtown Nashville today for a meeting. One would have no idea anything happened in the immediate downtown area. On the way out drive through Germantown, 6 blocks north of my meeting. Damage was continuous and only about 2 blocks wide. Def EF2 damage. The ďme tooĒ condos (I call them that because they look the same in every major city) fared relatively well. Older structures didnít.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: StormNine on March 04, 2020, 07:34:16 PM
Putnam County tornado confirmed to be an EF-4. 

First in Middle TN since Good Friday 2009. 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 08:13:47 PM
Putnam County tornado confirmed to be an EF-4. 

First in Middle TN since Good Friday 2009.

We got a lot of ef0-ef2 twisters in our area in the past decade, we have had a lull for quite a while in significant tornadoes.

 I myself must say I have gotten a bit ho hum as far as alert/concern even though I know middle Tennessee is part of dixie alley and we usually see 30-40 tornadoes every year on average, some years more some years less.

 I am wide awake now when it comes to severe threats, this situation was unique and not expected in SO many ways and reminds me no matter how advanced science becomes , nature is going to do what it wants and we have to be wary.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: BRUCE on March 04, 2020, 08:30:15 PM
Putnam County tornado confirmed to be an EF-4. 

First in Middle TN since Good Friday 2009.
so this officially puts this as a violent tornado... ef4 - ef5 labeled as viloent
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 08:37:11 PM
so this officially puts this as a violent tornado... ef4 - ef5 labeled as viloent

And bruceÖ.it was in an area not even highlighted for any tornado probs, I mean it blows my mind....if a spin up happened where there were no tornado probs I could see it, but a violent ef4? its nuts how it happened :(
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: NashRugger on March 04, 2020, 08:39:46 PM
Oh the wonders of a single supercell that not only modified its immediate environment, see METAR data from both JWN and BNA, but also broke through the convective inhibition and used every bit of helicity and stronger than anticipated advection of low level instability in a small window.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: BRUCE on March 04, 2020, 08:46:01 PM
And bruceÖ.it was in an area not even highlighted for any tornado probs, I mean it blows my mind....if a spin up happened where there were no tornado probs I could see it, but a violent ef4? its nuts how it happened :(
true. west Tennessee didn't get an up graded till 1030 am update, then it went from 2 percent to 5 percent.  fascinating be honest
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Mr. Golf on March 04, 2020, 08:56:06 PM
true. west Tennessee didn't get an up graded till 1030 am update, then it went from 2 percent to 5 percent.  fascinating be honest
Bruce, I could be wrong, but with the pdo gone negative and that should support strong troughs out west and sending intense jetstream energy east at times. Something to think about.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: BRUCE on March 04, 2020, 08:59:18 PM
Bruce, I could be wrong, but with the pdo gone negative and that should support strong troughs out west and sending intense jetstream energy east at times. Something to think about.
yeah I have noticed that myself, good catch.. could be interesting down the road. sorry guess should be in march thread
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 04, 2020, 09:16:29 PM
Y'all I have never been so emotionally distraught over a weather situation more in my life,

I simply just can't get that picture of a sweet little Hattie Collins smiling out of my head, I actually cried because you can tell in that picture that she was full of life.... I cannot imagine how the family is going to go forward.

 I just wish I could do something for that particular family, it has hurt my heart
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Scot on March 05, 2020, 02:04:57 AM
Y'all I have never been so emotionally distraught over a weather situation more in my life,

I simply just can't get that picture of a sweet little Hattie Collins smiling out of my head, I actually cried because you can tell in that picture that she was full of life.... I cannot imagine how the family is going to go forward.

 I just wish I could do something for that particular family, it has hurt my heart
A GoFundMe has been setup on their behalf.  I can confirm this is legit. 


https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-support-matt-and-macy-collins?utm_source=customer&utm_medium=copy_link-tip&utm_campaign=p_cp+share-sheet


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2020, 06:15:42 AM
Need a tornado warning on the Nashville Cell now.

(Andy- if youíll forgive me for putting you in the spotlight in all this again-)

I think it would be interesting to see a timeline of the OHX warning issuances from before midnight when the storm was still back around Camden until it was reaching Cookeville.

Iíve been trying to replay what I observed when all this was happening.

Around 11:00 PM, the TOR was issued for Benton County. We had been discussing the cell already at that point (see previous posts).

Looks like I was personally following it until about 11:30, when I decided to try to get some sleep. Maybe it started to not look as wound up on radar.

I think I actually fell asleep for an hour when I was awakened by lightning and thunder around 12:30 or so. So, I grabbed my phone to check the status. I seemed to remember looking at Radarscope and seeing NO red polygon (TOR) at that time, and the storm was already moving across Davidson County. And, at first, it didnít seem to have that classic flying eagle supercell look that it had earlier. *I actually thought for a moment that things were winding down, and we were in the clear.* That was about the time I saw Andyís post here:

Need a tornado warning on the Nashville Cell now.

That seems to confirm the storm was not TOR-warned for a time. Not sure if justified or not as a retrospective, or if the cell really did ramp up that quickly. So, I guess my question is... how much lead time was there for the first impact area? ISTM there was very little at best. By this point, it was too late...

HUGE DEBRIS BALL

Iím not sure what the timeline was once it left the Nashville-Lebanon area. By that point, I think a lot of us were distracted by the initial aftermath and trying to make sense of the news that was coming in. I honestly quit following the progress of the cell at that point by the time it approached Cookeville.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Michael on March 05, 2020, 07:02:50 AM
Im taking a Spotter Training course in Morristown tonight. Been wanting to take this course for a few years now. But location and my schedule never allowed it.

I used to live in Cookeville several years ago. I worked 4 years with one of the people that died in the Tornado. I had friends that had moved several years ago from Cookeville to a nearby town. Their old house...leveled completely. They have 2 kids. I also knew a few other people who lived just outside the path of this. Thankfully, they were ok.

Where I used to live was within 1 mile of the main path. This really hit home for me. I pray for the family whose loved one I worked with as well as all the others who lost loved ones.

I hope by taking this Spotter Training course that I can learn a little bit more than I do now about these storms. You never know when you may spot something in time to save others.

Praying for all you folks in Middle Tn that were either affected by these Tornadoes or knew someone who was.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 05, 2020, 07:06:04 AM
The Gibson county tornado is  the second confirmed tornado in this area in the last couple months with no warning issued. I watched it on radar for 15 minutes and could not believe there was not a warning. There was clear strong rotation. There is a 21 mile path per the survey  in Gibson and Carroll counties before warning was issued.
Title: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2020, 07:33:38 AM
I wonder if attention to TDS signatures play a role in this. Before that was a thing, TOR warnings would not verify more often than not when offices just had doppler velocities to look at without CC.

I wonder if thereís almost a hesitation to issue a warning without a TDS nowadays. I donít know if thatís the case though, since by the time debris is detected, itís too late.

The flip side is over-warning when ground truth usually doesnít verify. Iím not sure what the answer is.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2020, 07:44:32 AM
TS, I saw this yesterday as I read through a bunch of articles, tweets, opinions, etc.  Looks like the first warning for Davidson Co came at 1235a.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESMyrfIXkAA2Kzv.png)

Here's the text:

Quote
492
WFUS54 KOHX 030635
TOROHX
TNC037-165-189-030700-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0006.200303T0635Z-200303T0700Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1235 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Davidson County in Middle Tennessee...
  South central Sumner County in Middle Tennessee...
  West central Wilson County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 100 AM CST.

* At 1235 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Nashville, moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Nashville around 1240 AM CST.
  Madison around 1250 AM CST.
  Lakewood, Hermitage and Old Hickory around 1255 AM CST.
  Mount Juliet and Rural Hill around 100 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Berry
Hill, Percy Priest Lake and Bells Bend.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 201 and 225.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 81 and 92.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 43 and 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3613 8694 3623 8692 3631 8652 3610 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0635Z 264DEG 39KT 3619 8689

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

Schaper

Below is the radar from around 1230a.  Storm looks cluttered and not real organized.  Couplet is barely detectable. 

(https://i.imgur.com/LEmblUX.jpg)

Radar at 1236, shortly after the warning was issued.  Storm looks much better organized with a noticeable debris ball.  Looks like some of the data is contaminated, but there's a definite hook.

(https://i.imgur.com/KQMttya.jpg)
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 05, 2020, 09:16:43 AM
(Andy- if youíll forgive me for putting you in the spotlight in all this again-)

I think it would be interesting to see a timeline of the OHX warning issuances from before midnight when the storm was still back around Camden until it was reaching Cookeville.

Iíve been trying to replay what I observed when all this was happening.

Around 11:00 PM, the TOR was issued for Benton County. We had been discussing the cell already at that point (see previous posts).

Looks like I was personally following it until about 11:30, when I decided to try to get some sleep. Maybe it started to not look as wound up on radar.

I think I actually fell asleep for an hour when I was awakened by lightning and thunder around 12:30 or so. So, I grabbed my phone to check the status. I seemed to remember looking at Radarscope and seeing NO red polygon (TOR) at that time, and the storm was already moving across Davidson County. And, at first, it didnít seem to have that classic flying eagle supercell look that it had earlier. *I actually thought for a moment that things were winding down, and we were in the clear.* That was about the time I saw Andyís post here:

That seems to confirm the storm was not TOR-warned for a time. Not sure if justified or not as a retrospective, or if the cell really did ramp up that quickly. So, I guess my question is... how much lead time was there for the first impact area? ISTM there was very little at best. By this point, it was too late...

Iím not sure what the timeline was once it left the Nashville-Lebanon area. By that point, I think a lot of us were distracted by the initial aftermath and trying to make sense of the news that was coming in. I honestly quit following the progress of the cell at that point by the time it approached Cookeville.

I can remember it clearly.  I was watching the tv and reading this forum when it all happened.  The storm as Eric showed did not look healthy heading into Davidson then in one image later the storm was a totally different looking storm.  I think the NWS did a great job in issuing the  tornado warning for the did so very quickly. As we can see 5 min later after Andy post.  One thing I definitely do not understand was a PDS issued?  It was clearly on ground with channel 5 actually showing it live.  I am wondering do we take away tornado warnings to soon.  Looking at Eric pic it shows that same storm kept cycling. 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: mamMATTus on March 05, 2020, 11:55:41 AM
Still waiting on that upgrade.....

Maybe they changed their mind or my co-worker misinterpreted. Honestly though, we're literally talking about a negligible 1mph difference.

Post Merge: March 05, 2020, 12:05:02 PM
I followed that cell on Radarscope(Reflectivity/Velocity/CC) just west of Dickson up until it started coming towards me in Hermitage. It had weakened as it approached the Davidson County line. However, as it crossed over the line, the difference in appearance was almost night and day. It literally jumped from weak on one scan to a strong signature the next, and just continued to become more defined.

I am not a meteorologist or expert by any means, but it seems to me that if you've had a cell with a history of producing a tornado and it still has those characteristics, you go ahead and issue the TOR before it hits the Metro population, especially considering it's night time & a good chunk of the population is already asleep. I feel like initial SVR was the wrong call.
Title: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2020, 12:44:52 PM
One thing I definitely do not understand was a PDS issued? 

Iím pretty there was as I think I remember seeing that wording (ďthis is a particularly dangerous situationĒ) in a warning or update that said ďlarge and extremely dangerousĒ tornado on the ground. I think it was even a TOR-E

Maybe someone can find that specific warning.




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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: NashRugger on March 05, 2020, 02:55:45 PM
Iím pretty there was as I think I remember seeing that wording (ďthis is a particularly dangerous situationĒ) in a warning or update that said ďlarge and extremely dangerousĒ tornado on the ground. I think it was even a TOR-E

Maybe someone can find that specific warning.




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There were 2 PDS warnings but no Tornado Emergency declared. The end wording of each warning was "this is an emergency situation" was in place, however.

Post Merge: March 05, 2020, 03:00:53 PM
I am not a meteorologist or expert by any means, but it seems to me that if you've had a cell with a history of producing a tornado and it still has those characteristics, you go ahead and issue the TOR before it hits the Metro population, especially considering it's night time & a good chunk of the population is already asleep. I feel like initial SVR was the wrong call.
The storm was on the downtrend with regards to rotation leading up to the sudden intensification and subsequent TOR warning. This storm, while intense, caught a lot of weather forecasters by surprise in not only how quickly it intensified and produced, but the intensity of the most notable tornadoes in Nashville and Cookeville.

There will be some heavy research into this particular event because how quickly everything escalated. I've been forecasting for the Navy for 14 years, and still going, and even to my trained eye, I would've issued a SVR versus TOR in that moment like OHX did.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: andyhb on March 05, 2020, 03:04:41 PM
Going back to some of the posts on this page. The main reason why I mentioned the supercell needing the tornado warning was looking at the signature on the TDWR (and also some help from KHPX). As the image from KOHX was indeed a bit messy, using a second radar in the area really helped solidify that something bad was about to happen.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: ChrisPC on March 05, 2020, 04:33:44 PM
I seldom post but have been around forever and lurk all the time.   I live about two miles from the hardest hit areas here in cookeville.  Even though I keep up with weather more than the general public I was caught off guard by this BUT my phone did alert me with time to get up. In fact, being the weather nerd I am, I actually brought up RadarScope to see what was going on AND even dumber walked out on the back porch.

I had time to get up, get my phone, open radarscope and walk outside. Plenty of time to take shelter if I werenít an idiot. Within 30 seconds on the porch I saw the sky start lighting up with non stop flashes of transformers and at the same time saw radar.  I came to my senses and got downstairs ASAP.

I fell back to sleep after the first warning, then the PDS warning popped up. I looked at Radarscope and saw the clearly defined hook and debris ball. I could have easily seen it from my back porch, but I wasnít going to.

I went through Mount Juliet today, and it looks like a 1/4-mile wide bulldozer went through. Brick houses shattered like clay. I went down Central Pike in Hermitage, too. Thereís a massive hole through the woods there. I saw a small forest of cedar trees just mown down. Huge oaks are just twisted apart and thrown everywhere. Fiberglass insulation is covering the ground like snow.

If Cookeville is worse, I barely want to think about the horror those people went through.

Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Derrick on March 05, 2020, 08:25:52 PM
Hey guys Iím from cookeville Tn . Iíve kept up with this page ever since I was kid Iím glad to see itís still going strong.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: NashRugger on March 05, 2020, 09:53:26 PM
From NWS Nashville Twitter


BREAKING-SURVEY UPDATE: Four tornadoes have been found in Middle TN from March 3rd

Nashville EF-3 (165mph): 60.13 miles/800 yards
Smith/Putnam EF-0 (75mph): 5.88 miles/50 yards
Cookeville EF-4 (175mph): 8.21 miles/500 yards
SE Cookeville/Goffton EF-0 (75mph): 0.23 miles/25 yards

So the Nashville/Mt. Juliet/ Lebanon tornado path gained another almost 8 miles. Also, there is the probability it had touched down before the warning was issued, which is moot at this point.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 05, 2020, 10:02:19 PM
From NWS Nashville Twitter


BREAKING-SURVEY UPDATE: Four tornadoes have been found in Middle TN from March 3rd

Nashville EF-3 (165mph): 60.13 miles/800 yards
Smith/Putnam EF-0 (75mph): 5.88 miles/50 yards
Cookeville EF-4 (175mph): 8.21 miles/500 yards
SE Cookeville/Goffton EF-0 (75mph): 0.23 miles/25 yards

So the Nashville/Mt. Juliet/ Lebanon tornado path gained another almost 8 miles. Also, there is the probability it had touched down before the warning was issued, which is moot at this point.


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So is the Mt Juliet & Lebanon one considered the Nashville tornado? 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2020, 10:08:50 PM
If yall are free this weekend, Hands On Nashville still has some slots open to volunteer. I'll be out in Donelson tomorrow from 10am-1pm with the clean up team.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: NashRugger on March 05, 2020, 10:10:16 PM
So is the Mt Juliet & Lebanon one considered the Nashville tornado?
Yes, because it is one continuous path, obviously. A little over a 1/4 of its entire life on the ground was completely within the city limits of Nashville, which shows just how large a city it is in square miles.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2020, 11:10:40 PM
Here was channel 5 news station live as the tornado passed downtown Nashville.

https://youtu.be/C5XMnwzKu9E


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2020, 07:13:56 AM
Yoooo....

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1235883147478343681 (https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1235883147478343681)

I didn't realize is was this close to downtown.  Holy ::poo:: .....
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: cgauxknox on March 06, 2020, 07:24:44 AM
Yoooo....

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1235883147478343681 (https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1235883147478343681)

I didn't realize is was this close to downtown.  Holy ::poo:: .....
That track is just a bit north of where my grandparents' farm was.  Their farm was struck by two tornadoes in my lifetime, one sometime in the late 80s and another in 2003.  I've been told that I weathered another that closely missed the house as an infant but obviously don't remember that one.  After losing a second shed to a tornado (the house was miraculously never touched) they built a third one on the opposite side of the garden, which as far as I know is still standing.  Something about that location seems to draw tornadoes.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2020, 08:12:54 AM
Yoooo....

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1235883147478343681 (https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1235883147478343681)

I didn't realize is was this close to downtown.  Holy ::poo:: .....

Not to mention- it lifted just before a direct path to the hospital.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 06, 2020, 08:22:50 AM
what is so interesting about Putnam county is that an ef4 usually stays on the ground for a longer track than 8 miles, thankful it didn't
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: NashRugger on March 06, 2020, 09:08:26 AM
what is so interesting about Putnam county is that an ef4 usually stays on the ground for a longer track than 8 miles, thankful it didn't
The RFD rapidly undercut the circulation, most likely, thus killed it off quickly.

Here are a few examples of violent tornadoes that had even shorter path lengths to show that path length and width aren't indicative of intensity.
Jarrell, TX F5 on 5/27/97 was down for on 5.1 miles.
Oologah, OK F4 on 4/26/91 was only on the ground for 4 miles.
Elie, Manitoba EF5 on 6/22/07 was on the ground for 3.7 miles, but 40 minutes.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 06, 2020, 09:20:07 AM
but jarrell was on the ground for well over 45 minutes....that is easily the worst tornado situation I could ever imagine an ef5 barely moving at 1-2 mph Ö. that tornado has some of the worst damage stories you will ever read
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: andyhb on March 06, 2020, 11:18:28 AM
Yoooo....

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1235883147478343681 (https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1235883147478343681)

I didn't realize is was this close to downtown.  Holy ::poo:: .....

As bad as it was, we might be talking about 50 fatalities instead of 18 had it kept going like Nashville tornado did.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2020, 11:28:02 AM
Two really good Twitter threads from OHX (one former, currently in Vegas) mets talking about how the public perceives/receives severe weather threats.

https://twitter.com/dhawblitzel/status/1235966754746064899 (https://twitter.com/dhawblitzel/status/1235966754746064899)

https://twitter.com/ZombieTrev5k/status/1235973567348502528 (https://twitter.com/ZombieTrev5k/status/1235973567348502528)
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 06, 2020, 12:16:46 PM
A guy who works for me has a daughter who lives in Hermitage. She has an awesome ring doorbell video. She is still without power and is unable to send it yet.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 06, 2020, 02:08:23 PM
the fact that this storm had nothing but storm free air to the south has to be one of the biggest factors in it being such a long tracking supercell Ö. to keep a tornado on the ground for 55+ miles is no easy task at all....and for it to be able to pulse up again in Putnam county...this is one that will be studied and remembered..one supercell did such damage from west middle Tennessee to the plateau
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 06, 2020, 06:16:55 PM
IMO Tennessee St. and north Nashville have been overlooked in the coverage of this storm. I had no idea there was so much damage in that area. Today was the first time I have even seen it mentioned.
Title: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Brad on March 06, 2020, 09:52:02 PM
I wish I had a way to upload it but canít figure out through Tapatalk. I took a screen recording from a TDOT camera at I40/840 exit at 1:08 AM that shows a single car seemingly driving right into the storm (possibly the tornado), right before the camera freezes, assuming it lost power. Very eerie to watch.

I was 11 years old during the 1998 outbreak and traveled down to Tuscaloosa to help with recovery efforts a few years ago. But something about this one is just hard to get past.

A lot must have to do with how the probs werenít too high and early in the evening seemed like we might just get some garden variety overnight thunderstorms.

Wishing all the best to those on the board who were directly or indirectly affected.

[edit] see if this works.

https://youtu.be/HXHWDM8AiLI
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: harlequin on March 07, 2020, 02:42:00 PM
I would imagine the NWS will conduct a Service Assessment for 3/3. I hold the NWS in extremely high regard, and constantly direct people to get their forecasts directly from them, but these tornado warnings were a miss in some instances. I'm sorry to say.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/06/tennessee-tornado-tragedy-was-tied-lack-warning-awareness-readiness/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/06/tennessee-tornado-tragedy-was-tied-lack-warning-awareness-readiness/)

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/86/March_2%E2%80%933%2C_2020_tornado_outbreak_warnings_and_reports.png/1920px-March_2%E2%80%933%2C_2020_tornado_outbreak_warnings_and_reports.png)
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on March 07, 2020, 03:05:35 PM
I would imagine the NWS will conduct a Service Assessment for 3/3. I hold the NWS in extremely high regard, and constantly direct people to get their forecasts directly from them, but these tornado warnings were a miss in some instances. I'm sorry to say.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/06/tennessee-tornado-tragedy-was-tied-lack-warning-awareness-readiness/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/06/tennessee-tornado-tragedy-was-tied-lack-warning-awareness-readiness/)

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/86/March_2%E2%80%933%2C_2020_tornado_outbreak_warnings_and_reports.png/1920px-March_2%E2%80%933%2C_2020_tornado_outbreak_warnings_and_reports.png)

As well they should. We were getting 911 calls within a minute of the warning in Benton county. Our Ema director said that the tornado in Carrol county had been called into nws. Big ball dropped.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 07, 2020, 04:23:40 PM
They can't seem to win for losing though. I can remember not too long ago when it seemed the problem was "over-warning" when warnings were tripped by weak circulation. I remember the days even on this forum when our armchair mets would often respond with "meh" to a warned cell on radar. A lot of experience with that will cause a false sense of complacency. Even now, when I see a TOR, I tend to think "just a caution... probably nothing will happen."

This is not a simple or easy thing and should humble us to realize that there is still a lot of science to continue studying here. We discussed here in this thread just how rapidly this week's cell went from little to no signature on radar to full blown debris ball violent tornado... within minutes.

I think there was a threshold in the atmosphere that night that was hard to pinpoint or anticipate... how a cell can go from 0 to 900 in seconds in some cases it seemed.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: NashRugger on March 07, 2020, 07:28:45 PM
Iím beginning to wonder if the small shower the supercell ingested in eastern Cheatham County was the tipping point with the merger causing a sudden increase in upward vertical motion that allowed a storm that was already rooted at the surface to punch upwards more and aligned inflow & outflow perfectly to use the available helicity, which was outstanding, to produce a strong, long-track tornado.

Thereís some very microscale meteorology that will be studied with this storm.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: harlequin on March 07, 2020, 09:50:40 PM
They can't seem to win for losing though. I can remember not too long ago when it seemed the problem was "over-warning" when warnings were tripped by weak circulation. I remember the days even on this forum when our armchair mets would often respond with "meh" to a warned cell on radar. A lot of experience with that will cause a false sense of complacency. Even now, when I see a TOR, I tend to think "just a caution... probably nothing will happen."

This is not a simple or easy thing and should humble us to realize that there is still a lot of science to continue studying here. We discussed here in this thread just how rapidly this week's cell went from little to no signature on radar to full blown debris ball violent tornado... within minutes.

I think there was a threshold in the atmosphere that night that was hard to pinpoint or anticipate... how a cell can go from 0 to 900 in seconds in some cases it seemed.

I don't disagree at all. I remember the days of the QLCS blanket TORs, and I do think they were causing complacency. And I think the fact that MEG had quite a miss too proves that it was a very hard nowcast.

My family texts our group for every tornado warning, and I think I do a good job of telling them what is serious and what's not. I know they should take every warning serious, but my sister lives in Madison County, MS. I swear those sirens have gone off at least 6x this year it feels like.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: ChrisPC on March 08, 2020, 03:07:06 AM
They can't seem to win for losing though. I can remember not too long ago when it seemed the problem was "over-warning" when warnings were tripped by weak circulation. I remember the days even on this forum when our armchair mets would often respond with "meh" to a warned cell on radar. A lot of experience with that will cause a false sense of complacency. Even now, when I see a TOR, I tend to think "just a caution... probably nothing will happen."

This is not a simple or easy thing and should humble us to realize that there is still a lot of science to continue studying here. We discussed here in this thread just how rapidly this week's cell went from little to no signature on radar to full blown debris ball violent tornado... within minutes.

I think there was a threshold in the atmosphere that night that was hard to pinpoint or anticipate... how a cell can go from 0 to 900 in seconds in some cases it seemed.

Even as weather aware as I am, I got complacent when I saw the SVR warning. It looked unimpressive, and I went back to sleep. Ten minutes later, it was the textbook hook echo, with debris ball. It was coming right for me! It missed me by about 3-4 blocks. Even if people weíre awake, most fatalities would have still happened due to its sheer power.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Thundersnow on March 08, 2020, 06:47:41 AM
Itís been said the timing in the middle of night was bad, but I shutter to think of that hitting during the day actually.

The roadways full of commuters in some of those areas... DCA and West Wilson full of kids, with little time to assemble and take shelter... the various stores and restaurants that were hit, crowded with people...

There was no good time for a storm like that though. I think a lot about that neighborhood in Cookeville... whether those people were asleep or were able to take cover, if that even made a difference where houses were blown away. Similar to Nashville, the cell ramped up quickly again around Baxter, going from no TOR and an apparently less organized cell to producing a tornado again up to EF4 strength with very little lead time. Watch the channel 5 broadcast I posted earlier, and youíll see how fast the cell reorganized around Baxter and was soon at Cookevilleís doorstep.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 08, 2020, 12:52:23 PM
Part of the issue is radar coverage.  I was reading a twitter post of someone that showed the Cookeville tornado and the radar data from it.  There was zero indication of a Tornado due to the tilt limitations at that distance and the only clue from it was if you looked for debris with dual pol.  Keep in mind the "88" in WSR-88D NEXRAD is for 1988 when this was first deployed and the technology is amazing, but becoming dated despite software upgrades and enhanced modes like dual pol. There is only so much you can do with the base technology.  The next big thing is phased array radars, but with budgets being slashed for science and research, its not going to happen any time soon. This new radars would do amazing things for severe weather warnings and coverage as they do not have the lag time NEXRAD has and will be able to view the entire sky in near real-time with products derived from huge amounts data these arrays take in concurrently.  If anything, just deploying more WSR-88Ds in Tornado country to increase the grid resolution would be extremely helpful.

Also thought I would post this from twitter.  That is an impressive long track tornado family.
(https://i.imgur.com/F1iPGPJ.jpg)
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Scot on March 08, 2020, 12:55:46 PM
For those that were concerned about the family that lost their 4 year old in Cookeville. Here is the post he made this morning. 


https://www.facebook.com/637801065/posts/10157794592876066/?d=n


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 08, 2020, 01:01:35 PM
Iím beginning to wonder if the small shower the supercell ingested in eastern Cheatham County was the tipping point with the merger causing a sudden increase in upward vertical motion that allowed a storm that was already rooted at the surface to punch upwards more and aligned inflow & outflow perfectly to use the available helicity, which was outstanding, to produce a strong, long-track tornado.

Thereís some very microscale meteorology that will be studied with this storm.


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There was a quasi boundary at the surface also that may of been a factor caused by differential heating during daylight due to cloud cover to the south and more sunny skys to the north.  I think this provided just enough lift for initiation.  I know this will be well researched going forward and look forward to reading the papers.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2020, 02:29:46 PM
From a NES meteorologist

Quote
After a very long 3-4 days, some thoughts on the recent deadly #tornado outbreak in TN.
1. An off duty NWS employee can easily become part of the "general public" and go to bed unaware of the threats that exist. No social media post or media message will help if not checking.
10:33 AM ∑ Mar 6, 2020∑Twitter Web App
108
 Retweets
475
 Likes

Dan Hawblitzel
@dhawblitzel

Mar 6
Replying to
@dhawblitzel
2. WEA does you no good if you go to bed with your phone set to do not disturb. It is true you must have a second way to get warnings. In this case it was my dog waking me up. I need to follow our own advice on that one.
8
4
97

Dan Hawblitzel
@dhawblitzel

Mar 6
3. It's true that humans will often seek visual confirmation of a threat before acting, even a meteorologist. Even after seeing the warning, it wasn't until I saw the tornado approaching from my back deck that I scrambled to shelter with little time left. Precious minutes wasted.
1
6
88

Dan Hawblitzel
@dhawblitzel

Mar 6
4. Many (most?) people are relying on cell phones/WEA as their primary warning method now. Every person I spoke to mentioned this, mostly by having alerted them, but sometimes by being caught off guard because it didn't go off. Some mentioned how little lead time it provided.
1
3
73

Dan Hawblitzel
@dhawblitzel

Mar 6
5. I have had no time to perform a meteorological assessment of this event but it will be very interesting to see what, if any, mesoscale features hinted at potential long-track, strong/violent tornadoes. This surely goes beyond simple CAPE/helicity analysis.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Greyhound on March 08, 2020, 02:30:57 PM
For those that were concerned about the family that lost their 4 year old in Cookeville. Here is the post he made this morning. 


https://www.facebook.com/637801065/posts/10157794592876066/?d=n


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Heartbreaking


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Matthew on March 08, 2020, 06:30:47 PM
For those that were concerned about the family that lost their 4 year old in Cookeville. Here is the post he made this morning. 


https://www.facebook.com/637801065/posts/10157794592876066/?d=n


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

😭
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 09, 2020, 09:25:38 AM
I would imagine the NWS will conduct a Service Assessment for 3/3. I hold the NWS in extremely high regard, and constantly direct people to get their forecasts directly from them, but these tornado warnings were a miss in some instances. I'm sorry to say.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/06/tennessee-tornado-tragedy-was-tied-lack-warning-awareness-readiness/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/06/tennessee-tornado-tragedy-was-tied-lack-warning-awareness-readiness/)

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/86/March_2%E2%80%933%2C_2020_tornado_outbreak_warnings_and_reports.png/1920px-March_2%E2%80%933%2C_2020_tornado_outbreak_warnings_and_reports.png)

This is what I tried to say the other day that there was some major failure in the forecasting of that event, but of course people took it that I was "bashing" mets, I just thought I was stating a factÖ..that being said this article did put it much more eloquently than I can :).

Hopefully after studies are done on this event it could help warnings in the future. A lot of it I think has to do with wording....for one thing, I DESPISE the word "slight" in spc forecasts, I bet you 90% of people see/hear that and don't understand it
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: BRUCE on March 09, 2020, 10:04:21 AM
This is what I tried to say the other day that there was some major failure in the forecasting of that event, but of course people took it that I was "bashing" mets, I just thought I was stating a factÖ..that being said this article did put it much more eloquently than I can :).

Hopefully after studies are done on this event it could help warnings in the future. A lot of it I think has to do with wording....for one thing, I DESPISE the word "slight" in spc forecasts, I bet you 90% of people see/hear that and don't understand it
SPC should just get rid of the slight risk imo... start out marginal being your average general thunder storm with strong thunderstorm for good measure ... replace slight with enhanced .. thatís your severe weather thunderstorm hail wind general . Then course moderate be next level . Then big dog day will be high risk ...
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: NashRugger on March 09, 2020, 12:59:23 PM
Yeah, not gonna happen.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 09, 2020, 01:48:37 PM
Yeah, not gonna happen.


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I agree, and I KNOW they know more than I do, but they are quite a conservative bunch.....In most jobs if you make mistakes you get called out on it, so I just feel it is fair to point things out from time to time, there was at least one met at ohx who stated they just simply did not see this coming and it was totally unexpected...

I get it mother nature throws things that can shock everybody, but it is ok to admit that they had a bad night , the first warning for Davidson county was about 4 minutes after wsmv spotted the tight rotation, some areas where there were touchdowns had no warning at all....always room to get better in every job
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 09, 2020, 05:31:40 PM
This is what I tried to say the other day that there was some major failure in the forecasting of that event, but of course people took it that I was "bashing" mets, I just thought I was stating a factÖ..that being said this article did put it much more eloquently than I can :).

Hopefully after studies are done on this event it could help warnings in the future. A lot of it I think has to do with wording....for one thing, I DESPISE the word "slight" in spc forecasts, I bet you 90% of people see/hear that and don't understand it

I don't think the forecast was off at all.  People just have grown to not respect "slight" risk and the term in and off itself downplays the risk.  I am guilty of this myself - I didn't even check radarscope before bed.  The misses Harlequin mentioned were more in the issuance of near real time warnings which did happen, but I have seen the radar data and can completely understand how they did happen. The storm was a mess of mergers and between the radar distance and terrain sometime the data just wasn't there.

IMO the current rating system for severe weather is a total mess and I don't know how they thought adding a new category would be a good thing.  In my opinion they need to go with something simple.  Severe weather should be defined as convective storms that present threats to life and property.  Categories should be simple and clear:  on the low end: Possible, mid: Enhanced, and high: Very Likely.

This may be a little more controversial but I think the use of the Tornado Watch needs to be reworked.  I think all convective threats should be covered under Severe Thunder Storm Watches with specific wording in the the watch mentioning the severe weather modes.  Tornado Watches should then been issued closer to the event and be polygon based ahead of storm cells that have a history of tornado warnings and/or rotation.  Tornado watches should look like larger Tornado warning polygons but still smaller than the parent watch box.  This puts much more weight behind a watch and in this storms case places like Nashville and Cookesville would of had a heads up well ahead of time to at least be paying attention.  As it stands now I do not think the Tornado watch has much value at all to the public and this would take some reeducation but I also think it would help alert the public more, especially at night.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: NashRugger on March 09, 2020, 06:18:56 PM
Thereís only so much retooling and trying new categories, words, colorful pictures, etc that NOAA can produce and use but in the end, it is only the public itself to do what they wish with the information.

Over-warning leading to complacency, see Joplin, MO. Under-warning because of fear of crying wolf, see Plainfield, IL. I could use multiple other examples but these two are sort of anchors of the spectrum that a local NWS faces.

At this stage, the general public has to take responsibility for their actions.


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Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 10, 2020, 08:42:45 AM
I don't think the forecast was off at all.  People just have grown to not respect "slight" risk and the term in and off itself downplays the risk.  I am guilty of this myself - I didn't even check radarscope before bed.  The misses Harlequin mentioned were more in the issuance of near real time warnings which did happen, but I have seen the radar data and can completely understand how they did happen. The storm was a mess of mergers and between the radar distance and terrain sometime the data just wasn't there.

IMO the current rating system for severe weather is a total mess and I don't know how they thought adding a new category would be a good thing.  In my opinion they need to go with something simple.  Severe weather should be defined as convective storms that present threats to life and property.  Categories should be simple and clear:  on the low end: Possible, mid: Enhanced, and high: Very Likely.

This may be a little more controversial but I think the use of the Tornado Watch needs to be reworked.  I think all convective threats should be covered under Severe Thunder Storm Watches with specific wording in the the watch mentioning the severe weather modes.  Tornado Watches should then been issued closer to the event and be polygon based ahead of storm cells that have a history of tornado warnings and/or rotation.  Tornado watches should look like larger Tornado warning polygons but still smaller than the parent watch box.  This puts much more weight behind a watch and in this storms case places like Nashville and Cookesville would of had a heads up well ahead of time to at least be paying attention.  As it stands now I do not think the Tornado watch has much value at all to the public and this would take some reeducation but I also think it would help alert the public more, especially at night.

you know that is not a bad idea at all.....the tornado watch has been over used for years especially when there is a line of storms with a potential spin up...to me that should always be a severe t storm watch with different wording

This event if nothing else has just opened my eyes to a few things....I don't know that I can remember a strong long track tornado in a 2% area or a violent tornado in practically the 0% area.....it still is fascinating to me that this occurred. I guess any supercell really can do what it wants to, no matter what the forecast zone really is
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Eric on March 10, 2020, 08:46:10 AM
Thing about the tornado watch, it already is a polygon.  I'm not sure why the entire county gets "watched" once one gets hoisted, but that's the way it comes across.  Maybe that's part of the issue.  For example:

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2020/ww0036_overview_big_wou.gif)

This is the watch that was issued for Mid TN.  Notice the watch "box", especially the one across the Ozarks.  It's a watch polygon, very similar to the warning polygons. 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: NashRugger on March 10, 2020, 02:30:51 PM
All watch boxes show up like that when they're the one you've selected. I've seen multiple cases where some counties are within the lines of the SPC watch box but the local WFO is the deciding player as to specifically which counties they want in/out the watch, which is where you can also get coordinated localized extensions between the WFO and the SPC.

Getting down to carving watch boxes down to only portions of a county is most likely something that will not get implemented because that gets too fine of a scale for the SPC. That is why every watch box, regardless if SVR or TOR, is a coordinated effort.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 10, 2020, 02:41:14 PM

Getting down to carving watch boxes down to only portions of a county is most likely something that will not get implemented because that gets too fine of a scale for the SPC. That is why every watch box, regardless if SVR or TOR, is a coordinated effort.

Is it really though?  In this case for the TN system, putting a larger polygon around the I-40 corridor once the supercell track is seen seems fairly easy.  I am not saying it needs to be as tight as a TOR box, but tighter than the current watch boxes for tornadoes.  Tor watches would have much more value if they were working with windows within 2 hours and are issued after storms initiate.  The Severe Thunderstorm watch acts as the more general heads up before that.  Renaming it may be needed to avoid confusion and there is nothing preventing the normal use of PDS tags when a tstorm watch looks particularly nasty tornado wise.  I am really considering making an infographic that better explains what I am trying to say.

The watch/warning system hasn't been changed in 30+ years and IMO its old and tired and new ideas are needed even if my solution isn't it. 
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: gcbama on March 10, 2020, 03:41:47 PM
Is it really though?  In this case for the TN system, putting a larger polygon around the I-40 corridor once the supercell track is seen seems fairly easy.  I am not saying it needs to be as tight as a TOR box, but tighter than the current watch boxes for tornadoes.  Tor watches would have much more value if they were working with windows within 2 hours and are issued after storms initiate.  The Severe Thunderstorm watch acts as the more general heads up before that.  Renaming it may be needed to avoid confusion and there is nothing preventing the normal use of PDS tags when a tstorm watch looks particularly nasty tornado wise.  I am really considering making an infographic that better explains what I am trying to say.

The watch/warning system hasn't been changed in 30+ years and IMO its old and tired and new ideas are needed even if my solution isn't it.

There was an event several years ago and I have looked and looked for it. There was just ONE rogue tornado warned supercell and nothing else even on the radar I am wanting to say it was in Missouri or Illinois moving east, there was a tornado watch that was about 40 miles wide and extended east for about 150 miles because it was the only storm out there and nothing was going to compete with it.

I have to this day been unable to find it , but it was the weirdest watch I have ever seen , but it made perfect sense....if anybody is able to let me know the event I am talking about I would love to find it again lol
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: DocB on March 12, 2020, 12:35:04 PM
NOAA put this site together with satellite imagery of the path.
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/nashville/index.html
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: bugalou on March 12, 2020, 12:42:52 PM
Due to the exceptional nature of this event, I am going to go ahead and move it to our "Hall of Fame".  Feel free to continue discussion and post additional information, links, etc.
Title: Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
Post by: Jilly on March 12, 2020, 07:42:11 PM
Putnam County Emergency Management Agency
@PutnamEMATN
Our hearts are with all who have lost family or friends in the Super Tuesday Tornado. Our hearts are especially heavy today as another victim (adult male) has passed away due to injuries sustained during these devastating storms, bringing the total number of fatalities to 19.
3:37 PM ∑ Mar 12, 2020∑Twitter Web App
https://twitter.com/PutnamEMATN/status/1238202440283021312