Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on February 09, 2020, 07:21:09 AM

Title: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: StormNine on February 09, 2020, 07:21:09 AM
The WPC has a Moderate Risk out for flooding for Southern parts of the state and the SPC has 2/12 highlighted for severe weather. 


These two events combined lead to the creation of a thread.   
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-14th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: mamMATTus on February 09, 2020, 08:47:42 AM
Was coming here to say the Reed Timmer hype train is already running strong this morning for Wednesday, but maybe I stand corrected.
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-14th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: dwagner88 on February 09, 2020, 08:55:06 AM
While the snow yesterday was much appreciated, it certainly didnít help lower our flash flood guidance. This week may present a greater flooding threat than last February in this area.
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: cliftown04 on February 09, 2020, 02:09:37 PM
Iím wondering if the river forecasts that are found on NOAA are based on current river conditions or already figure in upcoming precipitation. This upcoming pattern has me very worried about the Tennessee River.
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 09, 2020, 02:28:57 PM
Iím wondering if the river forecasts that are found on NOAA are based on current river conditions or already figure in upcoming precipitation. This upcoming pattern has me very worried about the Tennessee River.
They include precipitation for the next 48 hours.
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: gcbama on February 09, 2020, 03:18:20 PM
so interesting that for several years now higher probs for severe weather remain cutoff to the state line....
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: Sbeagles on February 09, 2020, 03:28:20 PM
They include precipitation for the next 48 hours.
I was just wondering about this same question. Current forecast at Perryville is 373.76' with it still rising at the end of the projection. Last year we got to 378.2'.
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: cbrentv318 on February 09, 2020, 03:50:00 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200209/527a110422d66c8f3e3914900fab6b31.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: cliftown04 on February 09, 2020, 03:50:29 PM
I guess if I had any major interests along the Tennessee River I would plan on it reaching last years levels based on the current projections and forecast. It is amazing that we will be right at or near record levels two straight years.
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: Matthew on February 09, 2020, 04:52:38 PM
If the models are right.  Add another 7-8Ē to these areas the next 10 days and we might just have record levels.  If happens I could see schools out again this week.
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: dwagner88 on February 09, 2020, 06:06:52 PM
If the models are right.  Add another 7-8Ē to these areas the next 10 days and we might just have record levels.  If happens I could see schools out again this week.
Honestly, with the ground as saturated as it is, a poorly timed training cell could shut down schools at this point. Nowhere for the water to go.
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: StormNine on February 12, 2020, 07:51:38 PM
That line over the Cumberland Plateau has produced some widespread strong to severe thunderstorm gusts.  I could see a situation where the dynamics may carry at least some severe threat through East TN despite very little instability. 
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: cgauxknox on February 12, 2020, 08:25:19 PM
That line over the Cumberland Plateau has produced some widespread strong to severe thunderstorm gusts.  I could see a situation where the dynamics may carry at least some severe threat through East TN despite very little instability.

Knox County just came into the warning for that line so we'll see how well it holds together.
Title: Re: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)
Post by: gcbama on February 12, 2020, 09:18:55 PM
Knox County just came into the warning for that line so we'll see how well it holds together.

In southern middle Tennessee on highway 412 large trees all over the road as I was traveling, it almost looked like a microburst occurred