Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: Thundersnow on January 23, 2020, 07:23:55 AM

Title: February 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on January 23, 2020, 07:23:55 AM
Long range forecasts are getting into February now. So, discussion about weather in the upcoming month should take place here.

So, what will it be- more of the same or does Winter have a second half comeback in store for us?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 23, 2020, 07:26:49 AM
Long range forecasts are getting into February now. So, discussion about weather in the upcoming month should take place here.

So, what will it be- more of the same or does Winter have a second half comeback in store for us?
thanks for starting the February thread . Cause January is dead ...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 23, 2020, 11:12:59 AM
I feel like the 31st-8th time frame is going to set the tone for Feb. Not that we can't score a big event in late feb or early march, but it's gets tougher at that point in the season for it all too come together. I like the looks so far as we head into late Jan and Feb at the moment. That system in the 31st-1st time frame still looks interesting to me at the moment. Hopefully we can all get a good winter system or 2 before spring. Still cautiously optimistic that we get something to track over the next 2 weeks. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 23, 2020, 11:35:31 AM
it looks to be an active pattern....but here lately the storm usually comes 24-36 hours too late or too early....case in point we just wasted 3 days of actual REAL arctic air ,and the day after the cold air leaves...here comes the moisture

Hopefully in feb we can get at least ONE meeting of moisture and cold air :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 23, 2020, 11:42:19 AM
it looks to be an active pattern....but here lately the storm usually comes 24-36 hours too late or too early....case in point we just wasted 3 days of actual REAL arctic air ,and the day after the cold air leaves...here comes the moisture

Hopefully in feb we can get at least ONE meeting of moisture and cold air :)
agree... 12 z gfs is loaded with systems , and most of them take s good track for us to see at least rain change over to snow ... but temps still marginal . Hopefully things can change
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: TNHunter on January 24, 2020, 07:49:39 AM
Guess I'm not seeing it?  I'm not seeing much for winter weather activity end of January into early February.  Hopefully I am wrong, would be nice to get one decent event before mid February where hopefully our temps will be mid 60s and sunny for a while!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on January 24, 2020, 07:59:56 AM
The southern stream is loaded but the temperatures needed for winter are still locked up around the upper Midwest.  I say that, but the temps we're seeing now are climatologically normal.  The 0z Euro show a storm next weekend that carries potential (obvious disclaimer attached).  GFS doesn't even have a storm, so there's that.  At least it's something to watch.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 24, 2020, 08:18:22 AM
The southern stream is loaded but the temperatures needed for winter are still locked up around the upper Midwest.  I say that, but the temps we're seeing now are climatologically normal.  The 0z Euro show a storm next weekend that carries potential (obvious disclaimer attached).  GFS doesn't even have a storm, so there's that.  At least it's something to watch.
yep...!that storm on euro phases just bit earlier . Itís going be a monster of a apps runner .most of West and middle Tennessee would get hammered ...  ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on January 24, 2020, 08:25:12 AM
I feel like the 31st-8th time frame is going to set the tone for Feb. Not that we can't score a big event in late feb or early march, but it's gets tougher at that point in the season for it all too come together. I like the looks so far as we head into late Jan and Feb at the moment. That system in the 31st-1st time frame still looks interesting to me at the moment. Hopefully we can all get a good winter system or 2 before spring. Still cautiously optimistic that we get something to track over the next 2 weeks. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
I've had more snow after Valentine's day in the last 10 years than any other winter period. It doesn't last long that time of year, but it has been the most productive for this area.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on January 24, 2020, 08:29:14 AM
yep...!that storm on euro phases just bit earlier . Itís going be a monster of a apps runner .most of West and middle Tennessee would get hammered ...  ::coffee::

As it sits, I'll be happy with it...3-4" bullseye right over the homestead.  The HP is in a good enough spot, but isn't reeallll strong (1019mb).  Sixteen hours previous, another system tries to push through but gets slogged down.  I'm willing to bet that's the reason the low doesn't pull northward.  We'll see.  Next run it may be gone.

UPDATE:  12z GFS now has it.  And she's such a beaut.  Only problem?  200 hours out. 

12z GFS -
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020012412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png)

0z Euro -
(https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020012400/222/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png)

Digging a bit further, here is a 12z GFS skew-T for BNA at the same time as the above map -
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/gfs_2020012412_fh192_sounding_35.84N_87.05W.png)

35 effing degrees.  Just a few miles westward, it's 33F.  That's hilarious. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: justinmundie on January 24, 2020, 10:36:28 AM
Too bad there isn't just a hair more cold air on the day 9 storm. Could be a decent one all the way to NOLA if so.

If I had to guess though, dynamic cooling would take over. Euro's precipitation field doesn't make much sense though. I'll take Euro strength and GFS Precip please.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 24, 2020, 10:42:36 AM
As it sits, I'll be happy with it...3-4" bullseye right over the homestead.  The HP is in a good enough spot, but isn't reeallll strong (1019mb).  Sixteen hours previous, another system tries to push through but gets slogged down.  I'm willing to bet that's the reason the low doesn't pull northward.  We'll see.  Next run it may be gone.

UPDATE:  12z GFS now has it.  And she's such a beaut.  Only problem?  200 hours out. 

12z GFS -
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020012412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png)

0z Euro -
(https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020012400/222/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png)

Digging a bit further, here is a 12z GFS skew-T for BNA at the same time as the above map -
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/gfs_2020012412_fh192_sounding_35.84N_87.05W.png)

35 effing degrees.  Just a few miles westward, it's 33F.  That's hilarious.

LOL no matter what we are always 2-3 degrees to warm....I cannot remember the last acuumulation I got when it wasn't below freezing....pretty much hardly ever happens , yet I see so many other areas across the country get accumulations at 34 and 35 degrees....
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 24, 2020, 10:58:37 AM
As it sits, I'll be happy with it...3-4" bullseye right over the homestead.  The HP is in a good enough spot, but isn't reeallll strong (1019mb).  Sixteen hours previous, another system tries to push through but gets slogged down.  I'm willing to bet that's the reason the low doesn't pull northward.  We'll see.  Next run it may be gone.

UPDATE:  12z GFS now has it.  And she's such a beaut.  Only problem?  200 hours out. 

12z GFS -
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020012412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png)

0z Euro - 
(https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020012400/222/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png)

Digging a bit further, here is a 12z GFS skew-T for BNA at the same time as the above map -
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/gfs_2020012412_fh192_sounding_35.84N_87.05W.png)

35 effing degrees.  Just a few miles westward, it's 33F.  That's hilarious.
you would think there would be a bigger sheild of heavy wet wrap around snow behind that strong slp...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 24, 2020, 11:17:37 AM
The 12z GFS is close to glory the whole run. Starting with next weeks system. A little bit of everything. Couple of App Runners, a Miller A and a Arctic front.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 24, 2020, 11:28:38 AM
you would think there would be a bigger sheild of heavy wet wrap around snow behind that strong slp...

bruce you know that is my DREAM scenario a s/w to n/e moving low from Jackson ms up to Chattanooga with massive north and northwest wraparound snow...I always feel like that is what has given us our best accumulations :)....just need a little colder air :) lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on January 24, 2020, 03:56:06 PM
Going to be hard (but not impossible) to squeeze enough arctic air out these upcoming possible events. Look at the anomalies in our cold source region. Well above average. Artic air has just been locked up over Alaska this winter with an uncooperative AO.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1220803039826759684  (https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1220803039826759684)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 24, 2020, 04:33:59 PM
Going to be hard (but not impossible) to squeeze enough arctic air out these upcoming possible events. Look at the anomalies in our cold source region. Well above average. Artic air has just been locked up over Alaska this winter with an uncooperative AO.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1220803039826759684  (https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1220803039826759684)
at this point I love just to see a big heavy wet snow fall ...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on January 25, 2020, 11:14:30 AM
Last night's Euro & 12z GFS have both gone further south with next weekend's system. Suppression?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 25, 2020, 11:45:43 AM
I am no weather expert but it appears to me the first 10 days of February are snowless with average to above average temps. It seems the pattern continues to keep the cold air in Alaska and the lows form in Texas and ride up through Indiana. It looks like we may have two totally warm and wet winters in a row. Someone tell me I am seeing it wrong


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Title: February 2020
Post by: Curt on January 25, 2020, 12:27:48 PM
The amount of cold air entering the continental US in the long range on all ensembles is just staggering.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200125/f6ebf5df1ab39a2d381fb31416c5b2df.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 25, 2020, 12:40:00 PM
I assume this cold makes it down to Tennessee. Hopefully if that happens the timing can hook up with a-gulf low. When does the cold start showing up in the long range


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 25, 2020, 12:40:27 PM
The amount of cold air entering the continental US in the long range on all ensembles is just staggering.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200125/f6ebf5df1ab39a2d381fb31416c5b2df.jpg)
yeah something has to give ...interesting, see we can get it east of the Rockies
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on January 25, 2020, 12:41:52 PM
I assume this cold makes it down to Tennessee. Hopefully if that happens the timing can hook up with a-gulf low. When does the cold start showing up in the long range


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Itís going to come south- just how far is anyoneís guess. The MJO will be more cooperative at that time. Itís certainly got some potential to ooze south and hook up with the southern stream. Just where is the question.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 25, 2020, 12:48:01 PM
The storm I thought might have some potential for next weekend now looks like a total bust. Way to far south and no cold air even it it moves farther north


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on January 25, 2020, 03:20:12 PM
The storm I thought might have some potential for next weekend now looks like a total bust. Way to far south and no cold air even it it moves farther north


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Yes, right now the temps are just mediocre.  Hopefully that will change.  Hopefully it will snow a Foot on my Birthday Feb 15th.   ;D
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on January 25, 2020, 06:11:09 PM
Interesting that 18z GFS has the next weekend storm up in New England with a 958mb . For reference, Superstorm 93 lowest pressure was 960mb. Granted, this isnít as monstrous, but dang. Helluva Noríeaster though.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on January 25, 2020, 09:18:12 PM
The amount of cold air entering the continental US in the long range on all ensembles is just staggering.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200125/f6ebf5df1ab39a2d381fb31416c5b2df.jpg)

But does this honestly look promising? To me it looks like an extremely unfavorable setup with an eastern ridge and a western trough. Looks like a great setup for the northern plains. Not that they want to see snow. I canít imagine there are many winter scenarios with +10 temps in Wisconsin that result in snows in TN.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on January 26, 2020, 10:21:49 AM
But does this honestly look promising? To me it looks like an extremely unfavorable setup with an eastern ridge and a western trough. Looks like a great setup for the northern plains. Not that they want to see snow. I canít imagine there are many winter scenarios with +10 temps in Wisconsin that result in snows in TN.

Well itís one point in time. Last nights euro control dumped the arctic air directly into the middle of the country. Lots of moving parts and with the potential PV disruption, thereís going to be some wild runs. Hereís last nights euro control for the same period as the quoted pic.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200126/899d699622ea807097cbebade3603dff.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 26, 2020, 10:54:20 AM
I believe the wild runs have started....


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: JHart on January 26, 2020, 12:26:01 PM
I believe the wild runs have started....


Holy not-gonna-happen, Batman!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: wfrogge on January 26, 2020, 12:55:53 PM
I am uncertain on the certainty on the uncertainty
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on January 26, 2020, 02:27:32 PM
I know not to put stock in any one run of one model, but we all know this would be the one to nail it.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clint on January 26, 2020, 06:26:08 PM
The 18Z GFS continues to show Winter weather chances in February. If we can get this look inside 48 hours we may be in business.

(https://i.imgur.com/WAchR4z.gif)


Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on January 26, 2020, 09:38:04 PM
I know not to put stock in any one run of one model, but we all know this would be the one to nail it.

I know not to put stock in any one run of one model, but we all know this would be the one to nail it.

No, nope, Nada!   ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl::
Title: February 2020
Post by: Michael on January 27, 2020, 05:12:06 AM
Thought you West Tn folks might be interested in the 00z NAM for Wednesday/Thursday...(Edit: Just saw 06z...what snow? )
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200127/33dcf452fcf3710045d1d8e33b266679.jpg)


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 27, 2020, 08:10:51 AM
No, nope, Nada!   ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl::

LOL....the classic middle Tennessee snow dome  haha
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 27, 2020, 08:49:04 AM
LOL....the classic middle Tennessee snow dome  haha
its starting to turn into the Tennessee snow dome u mean... lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on January 27, 2020, 09:58:23 AM
Whatever happened to JayCee? He hasn't posted in months. I'm a little concerned.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 27, 2020, 10:07:59 AM
Whatever happened to JayCee? He hasn't posted in months. I'm a little concerned.
yeah you are correct , been awhile . Hope all is good. But there really has t been any weather to even mention in months either . Could be the reason .....
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on January 27, 2020, 11:32:02 AM
Whatever happened to JayCee? He hasn't posted in months. I'm a little concerned.
Yeah it's been awhile..Hey JayCee wave a hand to let us know you're still out there.

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 27, 2020, 12:40:30 PM
Good agreement with GFS and last nights Euro on something possible day 10. Long way to go but unusual for both to be showing it.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Greyhound on January 27, 2020, 12:49:16 PM
Yeah it's been awhile..Hey JayCee wave a hand to let us know you're still out there.

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I thought the same thing not too long ago and went back and looked at some of his last posts.  This was his last one on 9/24/19 in the General Weather thread.  Either way....hope he's doing ok!!

I honestly don't see what the problem is posting concerns, feelings, worries, etc. about the weather in a weather forum.  Is it not open to discussion?  If we can only have one view and one way of looking at things here, then it's not an open forum, but just everyone marching to the beat of the same drum.  Is that what we have to do to be able to post anything here?  Then I'll be glad to be the one to bow out right now, because I'm not a follower, and voicing concerns/worries isn't being an alarmist.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on January 27, 2020, 03:25:41 PM
I was also worried when I noticed William Brantley stopped posting daily weather data for Jackson, but I checked up on him and he is still active on Twitter
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 27, 2020, 03:32:21 PM
I was also worried when I noticed William Brantley stopped posting daily weather data for Jackson, but I checked up on him and he is still active on Twitter
yeah mr. William Brantley does a live radio weather broadcast local here in Jackson from time to time...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on January 28, 2020, 07:58:05 AM
I don't see much improvement on the horizon.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1221889155959066624 (https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1221889155959066624)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 28, 2020, 08:20:03 AM
I don't see much improvement on the horizon.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1221889155959066624 (https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1221889155959066624)
this has to be one of the most boring winter pattern I have ever imagined... itís relentless...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on January 28, 2020, 08:52:23 AM
Iím actually ready to put fertilizer down.  Yesterday turned out beautiful.  I will take sunny and 60 anytime in winter.  Especially a $100 electric bill!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on January 28, 2020, 08:57:38 AM
Especially a $100 electric bill!!!!!!!!!

There are benefits.  ::guitar::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 28, 2020, 09:10:32 AM
As Bruce has stated before, we continue to kick the can down the road just like last year and our chance at a winter event will soon be next winter. I have never seen two years back to back with both January and February being this bad if you want to track a winter event. If this happens again next year it may be the norm going forward


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on January 28, 2020, 09:35:32 AM
As Bruce has stated before, we continue to kick the can down the road just like last year and our chance at a winter event will soon be next winter. I have never seen two years back to back with both January and February being this bad if you want to track a winter event. If this happens again next year it may be the norm going forward

It's definitely rare to have back to back years this bad, but not unheard of. There are examples in Nashville history as far back as 1908/1909 which featured a trace of snowfall both years.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on January 28, 2020, 09:38:17 AM
My Facebook "Memories" is filled with posts from the winter storm 10 years ago.  The fact that I'm being reminded of that amidst our most recent snow slump is depressing.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 28, 2020, 10:16:35 AM
My Facebook "Memories" is filled with posts from the winter storm 10 years ago.  The fact that I'm being reminded of that amidst our most recent snow slump is depressing.
yes January 29th 2010 one my favorite winter storms . I got 8 inches imby
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 28, 2020, 10:35:11 AM
Luckily in Johnson City we had the 10 inch snow last December and a couple 2 inch snows very early this year. We usually have several events of 2 inches or more but that has not happened the last 2 winters. Our average low in January is 24 but we have only been below 30 a handful of times the whole month


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 28, 2020, 10:48:46 AM
yes January 29th 2010 one my favorite winter storms . I got 8 inches imby

yep me too bruceÖ.9 here in lewis county that storm.

I have totally given up hope for this winter, if a surprise happens I will be happy:), but I am done hoping for or looking for something to track...I will check on models every few days from now on but it is no longer a daily priority, it will be same old story I think this winter with mostly above average temps and a few days of cold rains , I am sure there will be at least one potential winter event somewhere down the road , but I am not gonna wishcast it to happen..

Trees are already starting to bud and spring will be here fast :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on January 28, 2020, 11:24:25 AM
Sad that November was colder than January.

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 28, 2020, 11:39:32 AM
Sad that November was colder than January.

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whats even worst is , we canít even get a fantasy storm to drull over ...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 28, 2020, 12:16:49 PM
whats even worst is , we canít even get a fantasy storm to drull over ...

for real, NOTHING even has come near being a "close call"
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 28, 2020, 02:40:41 PM
Still plenty of time left but the clock starts really ticking as we enter February. Trying to think even handed here on winter, as bad as Dec and January were there is still enough time for us to get a couple of good snows climo wise. It has been disheartening at times this winter when long range has thrown us big head fakes that we were going colder. Living here my entire 55 years I have seen the good, the bad, and the ugly over the years. I still think and hold out hope that the mid-state area in general is going to score a winter system or 2 before spring finally breaks. Of course it is very possible we get shut out and I can understand one thinking that. But I am going to stick with us getting at least 1 maybe even 2 events in February of at least a couple of inches at minimum. But I will admit, if we were somehow granted just one snow for the rest of the year but it would be at least 6 inch snowfall and stay around at least 3 full days I would take it. LOL! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: TNHunter on January 28, 2020, 02:48:06 PM
The last two Novembers have pretty much been the extent of our winter weather here on the west side of the state.  If next November is cold with a winter event then we're screwed.  Have had three Novembers with cold and a winter events in the past six years and all have lead into terrible winters.

Maybe just maybe this above normal temps will carry into spring and let us have a nice spring and not a dang cold gray spring.  It has been a couple of years since we have had a good solid spring, about like fall now days also.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on January 28, 2020, 02:54:55 PM
If I was going to put my chips down at this point I'd split my bet between absolutely nothing and a disastrous spring break storm in March.  We haven't had one of those in this century and I think we're overdue.

*This post does not imply any model guidance or actual meteorological evidence, just a gut feeling.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 28, 2020, 03:01:44 PM
Still plenty of time left but the clock starts really ticking as we enter February. Trying to think even handed here on winter, as bad as Dec and January were there is still enough time for us to get a couple of good snows climo wise. It has been disheartening at times this winter when long range has thrown us big head fakes that we were going colder. Living here my entire 55 years I have seen the good, the bad, and the ugly over the years. I still think and hold out hope that the mid-state area in general is going to score a winter system or 2 before spring finally breaks. Of course it is very possible we get shut out and I can understand one thinking that. But I am going to stick with us getting at least 1 maybe even 2 events in February of at least a couple of inches at minimum. But I will admit, if we were somehow granted just one snow for the rest of the year but it would be at least 6 inch snowfall and stay around at least 3 full days I would take it. LOL! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

considering the fact I have seen a total of six inches of snow since 2015 I would take that as well lol.....this is easily the worst 5 year period I have been through for snowfall
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 28, 2020, 03:10:33 PM
The extended for Johnson City for the next 15 days has trended much warmer the last 48 hours. It has gone from highs in the low 40ís and lows in the 20ís to rain every day and highs in the 50ís and lows in the 40ís and 30ís starting the middle of next week. This seems to have been the way the weather has trended the last 6 months


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 28, 2020, 04:54:19 PM
The extended for Johnson City for the next 15 days has trended much warmer the last 48 hours. It has gone from highs in the low 40ís and lows in the 20ís to rain every day and highs in the 50ís and lows in the 40ís and 30ís starting the middle of next week. This seems to have been the way the weather has trended the last 6 months


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last year as well....all 10 day out looks would show cold outbreaks only to moderate to mid 40's for highs
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 29, 2020, 06:45:01 AM
I usually want some cold and snow but I am ready to wave the white flag this winter again and move on to spring. The 15 day this morning shows a couple 60 degree highs next week then basically around 50 or so through the middle of February. The middle of February on the average highs for Tennessee start increasing pretty fast. Oh well, always next winter, lol. I wouldnít count on much


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: TNHunter on January 29, 2020, 07:30:48 AM
last year as well....all 10 day out looks would show cold outbreaks only to moderate to mid 40's for highs

Right....If the last two winters have done nothing else it should have reminded us all of how very little we actually know about weather beyond a couple of days.  I have seen literally almost every long range forecast busted by all the big time mets the past two years.  I am new to this who weather modeling things (have been watching models for about 3 years) and models to a newbie seem to be absolutely terrible IMO. I honestly wonder why we try to look at them beyond 5 days.  Maybe the past 3 years have just been tricky and different for the models or something, but they sure haven't been very accurate IMO.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on January 29, 2020, 08:31:15 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/3njsvv.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/3njsvv) (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 29, 2020, 08:33:42 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/3njsvv.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/3njsvv) (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
we got get into a classic northwest flow pattern to last more than a day or two to even get that ... been long time we even had a clipper  seems like
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 29, 2020, 09:10:44 AM
Right....If the last two winters have done nothing else it should have reminded us all of how very little we actually know about weather beyond a couple of days.  I have seen literally almost every long range forecast busted by all the big time mets the past two years.  I am new to this who weather modeling things (have been watching models for about 3 years) and models to a newbie seem to be absolutely terrible IMO. I honestly wonder why we try to look at them beyond 5 days.  Maybe the past 3 years have just been tricky and different for the models or something, but they sure haven't been very accurate IMO.

I am with you, I have felt for a while that the day mets went to a 7 day forecast things just got worse.....heck sometimes a 24 hour forecast busts so why think you can be accurate 7 days out lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on January 29, 2020, 10:52:09 AM
I am with you, I have felt for a while that the day mets went to a 7 day forecast things just got worse.....heck sometimes a 24 hour forecast busts so why think you can be accurate 7 days out lol

I have seen really nice bands of snow headed our way and sitting up half the night to see it.  Only to have dry air just eat it all up.  Snow is just very tricky in the south it seems. But perhaps that will change at least one year soon.  If you canít wait you may have to move north.  I have been watching Ski cams lately for my snow fix. Lol! Sad but true :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 29, 2020, 11:37:43 AM
System early next week holds some severe potential if we can develop a healthy warm sector...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on January 29, 2020, 12:17:47 PM
System early next week holds some severe potential if we can develop a healthy warm sector...

I know you said a healthy warm sector but not gonna happen.  This pattern set up spells cloudy cool rains.  With a splash of thunder thrown in.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on January 29, 2020, 12:39:40 PM
The +EPO is tough to beat.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 29, 2020, 05:05:18 PM
If the 18z GFS verifies they will have to activate the National Guard in some states.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 29, 2020, 07:06:17 PM
If the 18z GFS verifies they will have to activate the National Guard in some states.  ::rofl::
think I pass on that ... historic ice storm to our southeast of us... if that verified
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on January 29, 2020, 10:03:47 PM
I think I may move to Phoenix, then I could just enjoy hot weather and head to Flagstaff for a little snow lol

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on January 30, 2020, 07:06:17 AM
GFS is drunk in the long range. Still looks warm.

https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1222866275065573376 (https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1222866275065573376)

Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on January 30, 2020, 07:35:04 AM
The arctic front is going to get hung up somewhere in the extended with several waves. Someone even in our area has a decent shot to be in the cold side depending on HP strength.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 30, 2020, 07:37:07 AM
Euro at day 7.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on January 30, 2020, 08:05:54 AM
Euro at day 7.

(Attachment Link)

Dyersburg is 32F.  Nashville is 41F.  There would be riots.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: joemomma on January 30, 2020, 08:11:59 AM
Another cold chasing moisture scenario, what could go wrong lol.

In all seriousness, at least it is showing something...which is more than we have had up to this point.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on January 30, 2020, 08:33:37 AM
I'm still checking models daily, but feeling oddly ambivalent about the whole thing. Guess I'm getting old. ;D I do have this feeling something will flip late and we'll end up with an absolutely awful March. Maybe we can sneak in something big later. It's happened plenty of times before.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on January 30, 2020, 08:57:55 AM
I do have this feeling something will flip late and we'll end up with an absolutely awful March. Maybe we can sneak in something big later. It's happened plenty of times before.

Yeah, fall flipped late which also gave us a cold start in December. At some point the pattern will go cold for our area, late winter or early spring.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: joemomma on January 30, 2020, 11:17:38 AM
Makes sense... I think I mentioned it in another thread back in the fall...I think our seasons have shifted by a couple of months.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: bugalou on January 30, 2020, 12:24:14 PM
Another cold chasing moisture scenario, what could go wrong lol.

In all seriousness, at least it is showing something...which is more than we have had up to this point.

Not really - haven't seen the data completely but this looks like there is a low to our south versus on top or north of us which is when we get the cold chasing precip or anafrontal snow.

Post Merge: January 30, 2020, 12:26:29 PM
The arctic front is going to get hung up somewhere in the extended with several waves. Someone even in our area has a decent shot to be in the cold side depending on HP strength.

If there is a major ice event from this in TN, you guys owe me a beer - I called this a couple weeks ago just looking at the MJO/EPO/NAO forecasts.
And I probably just jinxed it trying to flex.   ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 30, 2020, 12:45:33 PM
Not really - haven't seen the data completely but this looks like there is a low to our south versus on top or north of us which is when we get the cold chasing precip or anafrontal snow.

Post Merge: January 30, 2020, 12:26:29 PM
If there is a major ice event from this in TN, you guys owe me a beer - I called this a couple weeks ago just looking at the MJO/EPO/NAO forecasts.
And I probably just jinxed it trying to flex.   ::rofl::
going have to get a artic front to come through first to worry bout ice storm ... Iím not seeing it yet .
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: bugalou on January 30, 2020, 01:28:46 PM
You really don't need a lot of cold air for ice, at least in ZR's case.  Just a shallow layer at the surface with at least some weak CAA at the boundary layer to deal with latent heat being released. 30.0 to 32.0 tend to be the sweet spot.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on January 30, 2020, 01:34:00 PM
You really don't need a lot of cold air for ice, at least in ZR's case.  Just a shallow layer at the surface with at least some weak CAA at the boundary layer to deal with latent heat being released. 30.0 to 32.0 tend to be the sweet spot.
Yep leads me to back to the 94 ice storm. It was 31 most of the the event in Greenville MS and it was devastating.

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 30, 2020, 01:40:34 PM
You really don't need a lot of cold air for ice, at least in ZR's case.  Just a shallow layer at the surface with at least some weak CAA at the boundary layer to deal with latent heat being released. 30.0 to 32.0 tend to be the sweet spot.
see weíre u coming from. And agree . But still need front come through and hang up just to the south so waves can run along boundary .. cause u have to deal with waa unless u get that frontal boundary come through...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on January 30, 2020, 01:56:53 PM
Then again, maybe we don't see a flip to cold even at the end of Feb. I'm usually not a negative Nancy, but this is as bad a two year winter stretch as I can remember (if it ends as currently modeled).

And if you can't tell, I like BAMWX on twitter. Props to them and Maue, they do a good job of just providing facts and leave out the wishcasting. Now, if you get into a decent pattern, you want to read some Bastardi to get excited. He has his time and place.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1222839308488454146 (https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1222839308488454146)

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1222957864119144449 (https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1222957864119144449)

Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: joemomma on January 30, 2020, 02:10:43 PM
Right on gents.  Fingers crossed!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on January 30, 2020, 02:43:42 PM
Then again, maybe we don't see a flip to cold even at the end of Feb. I'm usually not a negative Nancy, but this is as bad a two year winter stretch as I can remember (if it ends as currently modeled).

And if you can't tell, I like BAMWX on twitter. Props to them and Maue, they do a good job of just providing facts and leave out the wishcasting. Now, if you get into a decent pattern, you want to read some Bastardi to get excited. He has his time and place.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1222839308488454146 (https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1222839308488454146)

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1222957864119144449 (https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1222957864119144449)

Indeed.  Saw that this morning.  Might as well add this...

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1222702639957278723

Hey, PM me your Twitter @ if you want.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on January 30, 2020, 03:18:13 PM
Then again, maybe we don't see a flip to cold even at the end of Feb. I'm usually not a negative Nancy, but this is as bad a two year winter stretch as I can remember (if it ends as currently modeled).

And if you can't tell, I like BAMWX on twitter. Props to them and Maue, they do a good job of just providing facts and leave out the wishcasting. Now, if you get into a decent pattern, you want to read some Bastardi to get excited. He has his time and place.


BAMWX was frustrating me a couple weeks ago when everyone else got excited about the long range, but they ended up right. If you are still holding out hope, both ISOTHERM and GAWX(well respected folks found elsewhere) have been saying for weeks the best chance for below normal is going to be late February and March.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 30, 2020, 03:39:08 PM
BAMWX was frustrating me a couple weeks ago when everyone else got excited about the long range, but they ended up right. If you are still holding out hope, both ISOTHERM and GAWX(well respected folks found elsewhere) have been saying for weeks the best chance for below normal is going to be late February and March.
and thatís going be to late Iím afraid  ... even if that happens .
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on January 30, 2020, 04:34:33 PM
-AAM, the potential to quickly go from a Weak Nino to potentially straight La-Nina in the summer, and the tendency for the AO to stay + all argue that those who are hoping for a late February and March hail-mary may be disappointed. The weeklies are now very unfavorable in late Feb into March in a pattern that looks 2007/2017 like.   

Years with a similar pattern tend to have very warm to even record warm March's.  In several years the month of April is actually colder than March.   

This does spell a potential threat of concern and that is if the polar lows weaken and unleash that cold air that they are holding in say late March and especially April then the potential for a damaging freeze will be above average.   
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 30, 2020, 04:47:33 PM
please nobody bash me lol

But why do some people always seem shocked that a "long range" model forecast doesn't pan out?

Anything past 5 days is quite uncertain so why put faith in a computer model that's 9-10 days out especially when the history is always moderation will occur....it is rare that an arctic outbreak is correctly/accurately predicted more than 5 days out.....you can notice the trends and "potential" but so many bite the apple , I will admit I used to also but I am no longer shocked when it doesn't pan out in our favor :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clay on January 30, 2020, 05:53:29 PM
With the MJO heading into phase 3/4, if the system next week doesn't do it for us we may be punting until the end of the month.. Or potentially next winter.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 30, 2020, 06:12:27 PM
-AAM, the potential to quickly go from a Weak Nino to potentially straight La-Nina in the summer, and the tendency for the AO to stay + all argue that those who are hoping for a late February and March hail-mary may be disappointed. The weeklies are now very unfavorable in late Feb into March in a pattern that looks 2007/2017 like.   

Years with a similar pattern tend to have very warm to even record warm March's.  In several years the month of April is actually colder than March.   

This does spell a potential threat of concern and that is if the polar lows weaken and unleash that cold air that they are holding in say late March and especially April then the potential for a damaging freeze will be above average.
not quite sure we will ever see a freeze like w did back in early april 2007... that was a once lifetime event to be honest

Post Merge: January 30, 2020, 06:14:32 PM
please nobody bash me lol

But why do some people always seem shocked that a "long range" model forecast doesn't pan out?

Anything past 5 days is quite uncertain so why put faith in a computer model that's 9-10 days out especially when the history is always moderation will occur....it is rare that an arctic outbreak is correctly/accurately predicted more than 5 days out.....you can notice the trends and "potential" but so many bite the apple , I will admit I used to also but I am no longer shocked when it doesn't pan out in our favor :)
I really think the models aren't as accurate as they was at once to be honest, talking bout 7 to 10 days... course anything long than that is a crap shoot.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on January 30, 2020, 06:46:13 PM
not quite sure we will ever see a freeze like w did back in early april 2007... that was a once lifetime event to be honest

Post Merge: January 30, 2020, 06:14:32 PM
I really think the models aren't as accurate as they was at once to be honest, talking bout 7 to 10 days... course anything long than that is a crap shoot.

They were never "accurate".  So much computing power has been introduced that they're more powerful than ever.  The issue is, social media provides an avenue for everyone to discuss the inaccuracies.  Before SM, nobody cared about a 5-7 day forecast.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on January 30, 2020, 08:47:03 PM
I agree with Eric that models have never been quite that accurate past 5-7 days, especially because if something changes on Day 3-4 that is not depicted then it will impact the rest of the forecast. 

One also has to be aware of the bias that models have. Anybody can look at a model at face value and post it to social media, but it takes skill and especially experience to be able to now that certain models have certain biases or handle things differently.  The EURO sometimes hangs energy in the Southwestern US for too long, the GFS sometimes overestimates the northern stream, most models tend to be a bit too cold especially in the long-range.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: wfrogge on January 30, 2020, 10:02:13 PM
Bruce already pointed it out... Next week holds potential for severe storms before we get no snow.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on January 30, 2020, 10:45:29 PM
I gave up on winter before it even "started" so no surprises here for me.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on January 31, 2020, 07:10:27 AM
Bruce already pointed it out... Next week holds potential for severe storms before we get no snow.

In that vein, SPC already has areas denoted in subsequent days across the ArkLaMiss and Deep South. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on January 31, 2020, 08:03:52 AM
Who knows if right but signs point to a BN spring which is nothing new and the wet pattern to continue.  Actually to become wetter.  Cool and wet!  Yep that sounds about right. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: TNHunter on January 31, 2020, 08:18:42 AM
Who knows if right but signs point to a BN spring which is nothing new and the wet pattern to continue.  Actually to become wetter.  Cool and wet!  Yep that sounds about right.

Yipppeeee! A cool and wet spring after having sunny and almost 70 for a week at Christmas! Oh weather.................
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 31, 2020, 09:05:20 AM
Spring will come early this year ... n thank god for it. Long range is pointing mjo warm phases n staying
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: TNHunter on January 31, 2020, 09:48:05 AM
Spring will come early this year ... n thank god for it. Long range is pointing mjo warm phases n staying

Going to hold you to this Bruce.  I know nothing about long range MJO forecasts but are they as bad as the long range models?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on January 31, 2020, 10:15:31 AM
Who knows if right but signs point to a BN spring which is nothing new and the wet pattern to continue.  Actually to become wetter.  Cool and wet!  Yep that sounds about right.

See one of my recent posts.  In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend.   
The -AAM could in fact strengthen the SE Ridge as we head into Spring along with a quick collapse of the El-Nino into a La-Nina.  I think 2020 will end up being just one of those very warm years across the board similar to the 30s and years like 2012, 2016, and 2017 where we have a quick-hitting Spring and then an enteral Summer with drought potential towards the end. 

I think severe weather season could be pretty active early but I think it will also shut down early this year as well as ridging in the SE and South Central USA takes hold.   
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on January 31, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Man, the pipeline is ripe with available energy but the cold air can't past the influence(s) of the Atlantic ridge.  It's amazing, really.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 31, 2020, 10:41:40 AM
See one of my recent posts.  In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend.   
The -AAM could in fact strengthen the SE Ridge as we head into Spring along with a quick collapse of the El-Nino into a La-Nina.  I think 2020 will end up being just one of those very warm years across the board similar to the 30s and years like 2012, 2016, and 2017 where we have a quick-hitting Spring and then an enteral Summer with drought potential towards the end. 

I think severe weather season could be pretty active early but I think it will also shut down early this year as well as ridging in the SE and South Central USA takes hold.

You know, I used to love severe outbreaks and supercells etc, but as I am getting a bit older I really get a little more nervous than I used to, I think the near miss that we got here in the mid state on april 27th really got the power and deadly force of weather in my mind, had we gotten a little more sunshine that dat we would have been just as devastated as ms and al was
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 31, 2020, 03:32:45 PM
I am totally into all these big time events Steven pulled up... all fond memories they all have... what has happened to our weather ?  Last few years...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 31, 2020, 03:41:26 PM
I am totally into all these big time events Steven pulled up... all fond memories they all have... what has happened to our weather ?  Last few years...

Bruce...you know which event I don't think gets enough attention....May 1995 in middle Tennessee....that was a BAD day...that Ethridge ( Lawrence county) tornadic supercell dropped grapefruit hail in lewis county , many supercells that day
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 31, 2020, 09:12:52 PM
We canít even get a good frost in Johnson City of all places. At the base of mountains 6,000 feet high and being 1,800 feet we usually get nights in the 20ís if it is clear. It has been so cloudy and wet I can count the number of days below freezing since Christmas on one hand. It got down to 13 one night in the first 2 weeks of November when we got the 2 inch snow. I had no idea at the time that would be our coldest night all winter. The last two winters after the middle of December have non existent. The 10 inch snow last winter in early December was all we got except for about another inch that was not predicted. The northwest flow alone used to always give us several chances at 2 or 3 inches with usually 2 or 3 bigger events in an average winter. I donít think we have had one north west flow event in 2 years. Crazy stuff


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 01, 2020, 08:00:37 AM
The EPS has trended to a colder look in the long range. Not so much on the GEFS.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on February 01, 2020, 08:24:17 AM
The difference is how they handle the ridging around Alaska. 

The EPS is favorable because you see ridging extend into Alaska and Western Canada, therefore, forcing the colder air to spread to our region giving us hope. 

The GEFS is unfavorable because it shows the ridging off the west coast of Alaska in the same place it has been consistently these last two winters.  This allows for troughing anywhere from mainland Alaska to the Pacific NW and builds the SE Ridge allowing for a clear Winter Cancel and liftoff into an Early and potentially very warm Spring.   
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 01, 2020, 08:35:05 AM
The EPS has trended to a colder look in the long range. Not so much on the GEFS.
eps changes bout as much as I change my underwear, daily... long range mjo still blows... this pattern is locked in, die winter >:D
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2020, 10:40:13 AM
eps changes bout as much as I change my underwear, daily

I like that you felt you needed to add daily to your post. A good laugh to start the weekend.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 01, 2020, 11:18:08 AM
I like that you felt you needed to add daily to your post. A good laugh to start the weekend.
yeah, we might as well laugh, because it sure beats the h#ll out of crying... lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 01, 2020, 12:14:04 PM
The 15 day extended does not show Johnson City down to freezing one time through the next 2 weeks. I have never seen that here this time of year for 2 weeks. Our average low is 25 so the night we stay 40 or warmer,  there are several of those, we are over 15 degrees above average. A few years ago Johnson City got below 10 degrees at night 16 times in January with below zero 3 times. This winter is over but it will be interesting what happens next winter.  Can this same pattern go 3 years in a row. I didnít think it would hold 2 years in a row but that was dead wrong. I guess we wait to next winter now


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on February 01, 2020, 12:37:45 PM
I don't know if it is just wishful thinking but it seems like if you are in an unfavorable pattern that you can do better in a La Nina versus a Neutral/El-Nino.

If you are in a strongly +AO/+NAO pattern it just seems like having the northern stream of a La-Nina winter probably helps out especially if you are north of I-40 and west of I-65.

El-Nino's and Neutrals are amazing if either the NAO or both the EPO/PNA play along but if they don't they tend to be extra awful.   

Post Merge: February 01, 2020, 12:45:52 PM
The UKMET and some GFS Ensembles want to dangle a carrot in the eyes of the poor for those in West TN/KY by the end of next week.

Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 01, 2020, 01:43:42 PM
I don't know if it is just wishful thinking but it seems like if you are in an unfavorable pattern that you can do better in a La Nina versus a Neutral/El-Nino.

If you are in a strongly +AO/+NAO pattern it just seems like having the northern stream of a La-Nina winter probably helps out especially if you are north of I-40 and west of I-65.

El-Nino's and Neutrals are amazing if either the NAO or both the EPO/PNA play along but if they don't they tend to be extra awful.   

Post Merge: February 01, 2020, 12:45:52 PM
The UKMET and some GFS Ensembles want to dangle a carrot in the eyes of the poor for those in West TN/KY by the end of next week.
I was about to post about the UK. It really thumps eastern Arkansas and gives some love to west and most of middle Tennessee.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Hank W on February 01, 2020, 01:58:28 PM
Obvious Reed Timmer hype disclaimer but something to watch midweek.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200201/a1baccc1636318cfecd5b1d4b8392b19.jpg)


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: wfrogge on February 01, 2020, 03:09:34 PM
I don't know if it is just wishful thinking but it seems like if you are in an unfavorable pattern that you can do better in a La Nina versus a Neutral/El-Nino.

If you are in a strongly +AO/+NAO pattern it just seems like having the northern stream of a La-Nina winter probably helps out especially if you are north of I-40 and west of I-65.

El-Nino's and Neutrals are amazing if either the NAO or both the EPO/PNA play along but if they don't they tend to be extra awful.   

Post Merge: February 01, 2020, 12:45:52 PM
The UKMET and some GFS Ensembles want to dangle a carrot in the eyes of the poor for those in West TN/KY by the end of next week.

You know the pattern is crappy when we start to look at the ukmet
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 01, 2020, 03:09:46 PM
looks to be another classic severe weather below the ms and alabama state line
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 01, 2020, 03:52:50 PM
looks to be another classic severe weather below the ms and alabama state line
yeah really... its almost becoming biblical how we keep dodging big time weather events here weather its winter or severe weather, just hoping we can get into at least a solid moderate risk in spring board wide, then I will shut up if it verifies also
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clay on February 01, 2020, 04:04:08 PM
Don't look now.. GFS trying to pop a gulf low along the tail end of the frontal boundary Wednesday.  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 01, 2020, 04:06:47 PM
Don't look now.. GFS trying to pop a gulf low along the tail end of the frontal boundary Wednesday.  ::bagoverhead::
yeah but boy... the . ::bangingheadintowall::cold air is just marginal if it were to occur... but we would get a nice cool rain
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Scot on February 01, 2020, 04:13:05 PM
yeah but boy... the . ::bangingheadintowall::cold air is just marginal if it were to occur... but we would get a nice cool rain
I sure hope youíre not as miserable in real life.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 01, 2020, 04:23:56 PM
I sure hope youíre not as miserable in real life.


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just a big weather n sports freak dude
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Scot on February 01, 2020, 04:25:40 PM
just a big weather n sports freak dude
No, youíre the most negative person I have ever encountered.  Look back and every time someone posts something positive you be sure and say something negative. Itís tiresome and depressing.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 01, 2020, 04:31:54 PM
No, youíre the most negative person I have ever encountered.  Look back and every time someone posts something positive you be sure and say something negative. Itís tiresome and depressing.


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guess what, you got me wrong bro... I don't beat around the bush. I tell it like it is, don't like it. o well sorry... we had another person on this great site few years ago, who was quite knowledgeable by the way on weather, he was the same way and no one hardly bleep a word about it. I also learned quite a bit from him also as we became really good friends on the net. miss him to this day... when I see something positive, I promise I will get  ::guitar:: pumped up and talk good things about a system, until then enjoy the weather, because its the only weather you got... :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2020, 05:27:43 PM
I like big snows and severe wx is something to see but will pass on it in this area and not be disappointed if it ever comes to this area again.  I donít want to see anyoneís property to be lost and especially anyone to be hurt or killed.  So not sure why anyone would want a moderate to high risk to happen.  Yeah over open land and only fields sure all day long.  We donít have that type of landscape here.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 01, 2020, 09:58:02 PM
Not sure why you're so upset by what Bruce said.  Hes right.  The cold air - what there is - will not be deep, will be transient, if it's even cold enough for frozen.  I see nothing wrong with what he said, and I'm on Bruce's ass more than yall are.

0z GFS does present something and its within 100 hours.  Looks a bit moisture-starved on the northern flanks and temps extremely marginal but is something to follow.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 01, 2020, 11:14:58 PM
Models seem to under estimate the northern flank of precipitation on these setups most of the time. At this point it could go either way with only a small change. Itís not much at this point but our best chance so far.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clay on February 02, 2020, 01:04:29 AM
GFS is struggling with the timing of the phase. It's trending later and later, which is actually beneficial for us this time around.

Will also be interesting to see how this evolves for Central/Northern Texas considering their snow climo.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 02, 2020, 01:58:06 AM
Euro is little slower system , severe weather threat could sneak in southern portions of the state later Tuesday. Worth watching.  Probably better chance for severe than any winter weather that could cause a impact...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 02, 2020, 09:08:49 AM
Climo wise we are entering where severe wx will happen to the south of us.  To me looks like a lot of rain and cool for whole state. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 02, 2020, 09:37:15 AM
if today is any indication how I feel with these allergies, its going to be an epic allergy season this spring... im out enjoying the nice weather picking up dead limbs and etc, cleaning out flower beds... my allergies r killing me today, time to stock up on the Claritin.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 02, 2020, 09:51:55 AM
At the rate my grass is turning green.  I would say we will be mowing by end of Feb.  and trees will be budding.  Also Robins are in full force last few days in my yard.  Indications of a very early spring to me.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 02, 2020, 10:09:12 AM
fwiw, the 12zgfs was much further nw with frozen precip... it just shreds energy as moves further east
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 02, 2020, 10:31:10 AM
I'm in Denver, supposed to be 70 today and snow tomorrow. I would send pics but it may cause mutiny

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clay on February 02, 2020, 10:56:17 AM
At the rate my grass is turning green.  I would say we will be mowing by end of Feb.  and trees will be budding.  Also Robins are in full force last few days in my yard.  Indications of a very early spring to me.
After the mild start to this week, we'll have stinky Bradford Pears blooming by next weekend. Already seen a handful of cherry trees blooming.

On an somewhat related note, this winter's strong +AO has benefitted sea ice growth in the Arctic. For 2/1, the highest ice extent since 2009 (tied with '13).
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Crockett on February 02, 2020, 11:56:42 AM
I'm in Denver, supposed to be 70 today and snow tomorrow. I would send pics but it may cause mutiny

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I'm not gonna be upset. It's February now, and it's 60 degrees and sunny out today. Winter can go to ****!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on February 02, 2020, 12:53:56 PM
Looks like the severe threat on Wednesday stays south of the state line. East TN might get in on some action Weds night/Thurs morning though.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 02, 2020, 01:35:23 PM
Looks like the severe threat on Wednesday stays south of the state line. East TN might get in on some action Weds night/Thurs morning though.
ensembles starting pick up on a stronger system n further north... I know long range models been lousy, but there is some ensemble support at least for now. something to watch
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on February 02, 2020, 02:28:30 PM
Bruce may be on to something based on the general long-range pattern.  We could get some nice broad-based western/central US troughs out of this.  Remember the troughing is not the key itself it is the geometry of the trough.   

I will go ahead and say that I think severe season-wise we will have a fairly active season but it will end early.  I actually like our chance of ending our High-Risk drought on probably an occasion or two before the ridging in either the Central USA or the SE Ridge or a merge of both occur and take us right into Summer sometime in April-Early May, effectively ending at least our classic severe weather season.

This severe weather season will probably have a lot in common with years like 2002, 2006, and 2012 in that regard and I think the tornado activity will drop like a rock nationwide sometime in May through the early Summer as most severe weather events will probably be Derecho/MCS based that move along the US/Canada border.   
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Hank W on February 02, 2020, 05:13:27 PM
At the rate my grass is turning green.  I would say we will be mowing by end of Feb.  and trees will be budding.  Also Robins are in full force last few days in my yard.  Indications of a very early spring to me.
Just has a mosquito land on me sitting on my patio. Feb 2nd- wow.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 02, 2020, 06:35:29 PM
Cherry trees in downtown Chattanooga are in full bloom. Havenít seen any out in the burbs yet though.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 03, 2020, 07:51:26 AM
The Euro and CMC are showing frozen precipitation for the weekend.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 03, 2020, 08:30:52 AM
this so far has been the most consistently warm start and middle of winter that I can remember, other than the rainy days I have to say it's been quite beautiful actually :) even for a snow lover like me
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 03, 2020, 08:38:54 AM
CMC is an I-40 special. Euro is ice.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 03, 2020, 08:53:21 AM
CMC is an I-40 special. Euro is ice.


(Attachment Link)

that would be lovely.....one can always dream :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 03, 2020, 08:55:27 AM
The Euro and CMC are showing frozen precipitation for the weekend.
yeah euro doing its favorite thing, holding back energy to long to the sw
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: wfrogge on February 03, 2020, 08:57:57 AM
At the rate my grass is turning green.  I would say we will be mowing by end of Feb.  and trees will be budding.  Also Robins are in full force last few days in my yard.  Indications of a very early spring to me.

I agree.  The number of songbirds that have already migrated north kind of seals the deal for this winter.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 03, 2020, 09:15:20 AM
yeah euro doing its favorite thing, holding back energy to long to the sw
And GFS has nothing so thatís in our favor.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 03, 2020, 09:20:42 AM
I agree.  The number of songbirds that have already migrated north kind of seals the deal for this winter.

I don't think it is completely over...still 4-5 weeks where we may get a surprise...but it's not anything we can count on....more sunshine time every day we move towards march . 2 years in a row of a December and January torch , it's sad really :(
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 03, 2020, 10:30:47 AM
12zgfs says u want snow...  go to st.louis.... ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 03, 2020, 11:28:11 AM
sad, north central texas over 200 miles south of us has a winter storm watch and I haven't been under one in 3 years
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 03, 2020, 11:39:16 AM
sad, north central texas over 200 miles south of us has a winter storm watch and I haven't been under one in 3 years
yeah, Oklahoma City in bulls eye of 8 inches snow must be nice
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 03, 2020, 02:13:55 PM
They are predicting rain 13 of the next 15 days in Johnson City which is like Seattle. The sad thing is we have 2 or 3 lows come up out of the gulf in a perfect spot for snow and you have to go up to about 5,000 feet in elevation to be barely cold enough for snow. This pattern will just not let much cold air down our way even behind the fronts. The deep trough in the West, itís been there for two winters, gives us that southwest flow which canít penetrate our ridge. Frustrating with all this moisture. Of course if it was really cold it would shut off the moisture. Oh well, keep the umbrella handy


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 03, 2020, 02:36:18 PM
They are predicting rain 13 of the next 15 days in Johnson City which is like Seattle. The sad thing is we have 2 or 3 lows come up out of the gulf in a perfect spot for snow and you have to go up to about 5,000 feet in elevation to be barely cold enough for snow. This pattern will just not let much cold air down our way even behind the fronts. The deep trough in the West, itís been there for two winters, gives us that southwest flow which canít penetrate our ridge. Frustrating with all this moisture. Of course if it was really cold it would shut off the moisture. Oh well, keep the umbrella handy


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don't ever want to even see a nino for a while... to much southern stream which in return is flooding our region with milder air, course its plenty wet... hopefully we can get on track for some nina action later this year going into next winter... I take my chances that's for sure
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 03, 2020, 02:54:33 PM
I always hate nino winters. They are usually wet and warm. No chance this winter when the other factors have locked in all winter provided the big trough in the west and ridge in the east. Boone in North Carolina at 3,500 feet has only had 3 inches of snow this winter. Johnson City has had about 4 inches so far but we got that 2 inch snow in November that Boone did not get. Boone has plenty of winters with 35 inches or more.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: joemomma on February 03, 2020, 04:20:21 PM
That's got to be hitting the ski resorts there hard.

Although it's not the first time....I went there on a "ski" trip back in college, somewhere around '95 or '96 I guess, and there wasn't enough snow to ski.  We ended up golfing.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 03, 2020, 04:35:13 PM
Actually the ski slopes are just high enough they have been able to stay open since 2 weeks before Thanksgiving. Sugar Mountain has already had 37 inches of natural snow this winter. The last 7-10 days they have had around 10 inches with highs around freezing and lows in the 20ís. Their current base is 40-80 inches. They are getting some more snow this weekend after warm and rainy the next 3 days. Their lows are going to be in the mid 20ís Friday through Sunday night. Their elevation ranges from 4,100 to 5,300 so their base elevation at 4,100 has been just above the 4,000 foot cutoff for accumulating snow with temps below freezing the past 10 days. Just about the time they need a few cold nights to make snow the weather has cooperated. It has turned out to be decent for them given the crappy pattern. There has been more elevation snow for them than I can ever remember. Johnson City has been rain and 40 several times where they got accumulating snow and 30


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 03, 2020, 05:11:29 PM
Unfortunately latest weeklies still not looking good either moving forward ... ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on February 03, 2020, 05:15:18 PM
Record high for the day today of 74, beating the old record of 72 from 1986.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 03, 2020, 05:27:24 PM
The AO has been big time positive this entire winter after November. I donít think I have ever seen it stay that positive with no movement toward negative for 3 months solid. Hopefully it will change by next winter but Iím beginning to feel like I will have to see it to believe it. Can it do this 3 winters in a row?  I am now a believer it can but I hope Iím wrong


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: joemomma on February 04, 2020, 08:01:44 AM
Actually the ski slopes are just high enough they have been able to stay open since 2 weeks before Thanksgiving. Sugar Mountain has already had 37 inches of natural snow this winter. The last 7-10 days they have had around 10 inches with highs around freezing and lows in the 20ís. Their current base is 40-80 inches. They are getting some more snow this weekend after warm and rainy the next 3 days. Their lows are going to be in the mid 20ís Friday through Sunday night. Their elevation ranges from 4,100 to 5,300 so their base elevation at 4,100 has been just above the 4,000 foot cutoff for accumulating snow with temps below freezing the past 10 days. Just about the time they need a few cold nights to make snow the weather has cooperated. It has turned out to be decent for them given the crappy pattern. There has been more elevation snow for them than I can ever remember. Johnson City has been rain and 40 several times where they got accumulating snow and 30


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That's good to know - thanks for the info!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: wfrogge on February 04, 2020, 09:56:27 AM
I don't think it is completely over...still 4-5 weeks where we may get a surprise...but it's not anything we can count on....more sunshine time every day we move towards march . 2 years in a row of a December and January torch , it's sad really :(

There is nothing showing up over the next two weeks and long term shows no signs of enough cold pushing into our region to give us a shot.  You can have hope but really itís over unless something drastic changes.

But hey.... still weekly shots of severe weather for the southeast so thereís something to follow
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Crockett on February 04, 2020, 10:05:31 AM
At this point I think if anyone sees meaningful snowfall, it's going to be one of those rogue upper level lows. And we all know how frustrating and unpredictable those tend to be.  ::bangingheadintowall::

As much as I'm ready for spring, I'd take a big blast of arctic air if it would just help us dry out for a while. The 6z GFS has 8+ inches of rain for the next 2 weeks.  ::rain::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 04, 2020, 10:12:56 AM
At this point I think if anyone sees meaningful snowfall, it's going to be one of those rogue upper level lows. And we all know how frustrating and unpredictable those tend to be.  ::bangingheadintowall::

As much as I'm ready for spring, I'd take a big blast of arctic air if it would just help us dry out for a while. The 6z GFS has 8+ inches of rain for the next 2 weeks.  ::rain::
yeah some ensembles are showing over 10 inches rain same time frame
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 04, 2020, 10:14:33 AM
yeah some ensembles are showing over 10 inches rain same time frame
Yep that's the theme. If the cold was there, it would be drier than the Sahara.

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2020, 10:20:19 AM
Could be some pasty white car hoods come Friday morning.  See what the Euro has to say on the situation at lunch time.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 04, 2020, 10:21:15 AM
Yep that's the theme. If the cold was there, it would be drier than the Sahara.

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exactly, only good thing about ninos these years are, they are good for filling up your ponds and have to worry about flooding.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 04, 2020, 10:21:31 AM
At this point I think if anyone sees meaningful snowfall, it's going to be one of those rogue upper level lows. And we all know how frustrating and unpredictable those tend to be.  ::bangingheadintowall::

As much as I'm ready for spring, I'd take a big blast of arctic air if it would just help us dry out for a while. The 6z GFS has 8+ inches of rain for the next 2 weeks.  ::rain::

I am with you, very much ready for spring.....if there is going to be no real snow I would just prefer to move on... I got over my no snow winter blues about the first week of January since I saw nothing even remotely on the horizon as far as a system to track...if something happens I will be pleasantly surprised :).

the past two years there really has not been any weather to track lets be honest, no real snow/winter threat in 2 years and no real strong storm outbreak to track either, don't wish bad weather on anybody, just very boring weather for 700 days
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 04, 2020, 10:31:26 AM
I am with you, very much ready for spring.....if there is going to be no real snow I would just prefer to move on... I got over my no snow winter blues about the first week of January since I saw nothing even remotely on the horizon as far as a system to track...if something happens I will be pleasantly surprised :).

the past two years there really has not been any weather to track lets be honest, no real snow/winter threat in 2 years and no real strong storm outbreak to track either, don't wish bad weather on anybody, just very boring weather for 700 days
you take away the late winter snow we got march 2015, then we really haven't had much weather to track of any kind since 2011... outside few minor snow events mixed in here there, something has to give eventually..

Post Merge: February 04, 2020, 10:36:01 AM
Could be some pasty white car hoods come Friday morning.  See what the Euro has to say on the situation at lunch time.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png)
doubt if that would even stick to car hoods eric, lol its just to freaking wet and been to warm less we get some heavy returns
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 04, 2020, 12:32:11 PM
Euro trying to give some East Tn snowfall on Saturday


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Susan on February 04, 2020, 01:11:48 PM
Could be some pasty white car hoods come Friday morning.  See what the Euro has to say on the situation at lunch time.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png)

I'm optimistic we will receive flurries Thursday night and perhaps a measurable snow on Saturday, albeit a small one.  The Euro has been pretty accurate with snow forecasting this winter and both of these snowfalls have shown up on their models for several days now. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2020, 02:25:47 PM
12z Euro thinks there could be some sparse flurries late Friday into Saturday.  But that Saturday system needs to be watched.  A few degrees one way or the other could spell a nice surprise and/or disappointment for some.  GFS temps a bit warmer than the Euro.  As it sits verbatim, there could be an advisory-level event for the northern plateau.  Plenty of time for that to change, though.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 04, 2020, 04:26:43 PM
how sad... spots in central texas are forecast to have 6-12 inches of snow, and I have had a total of 4  since march 2015, burns me up when people much farther south than me get snow lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2020, 04:28:47 PM
how sad... spots in central texas are forecast to have 6-12 inches of snow, and I have had a total of 4  since march 2015, burns me up when people much farther south than me get snow lol

That's what happens when a baroclinic zone sets up between a Bermuda HP and a Rocky Mountain HP.  Somebody along that boundary will always get dumped on.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 04, 2020, 04:40:23 PM
That's what happens when a baroclinic zone sets up between a Bermuda HP and a Rocky Mountain HP.  Somebody along that boundary will always get dumped on.

central Oklahoma actually seems to do really well EVERY year ...I would say they are averaging 8-12 since the year 2000
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 04, 2020, 04:44:34 PM
central Oklahoma actually seems to do really well EVERY year ...I would say they are averaging 8-12 since the year 2000
they get a little everything pretty good...  advantage of being located right middle of the country...  blizzards to big tornado outbreaks ... always wanted move to okie city ... but got it made here lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 04, 2020, 04:57:48 PM
I'm optimistic we will receive flurries Thursday night and perhaps a measurable snow on Saturday, albeit a small one.  The Euro has been pretty accurate with snow forecasting this winter and both of these snowfalls have shown up on their models for several days now.

Me too, Susan. I'm in your neck of the woods.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 04, 2020, 04:58:52 PM
they get a little everything pretty good...  advantage of being located right middle of the country...  blizzards to big tornado outbreaks ... always wanted move to okie city ... but got it made here lol

I am ok with the big supercells out that way....at least you can see it approaching from miles away Ö. I am of the belief if I see that a potential f4-f5 is headed my way and it is about 5-6 miles away I am getting in the car and getting out of dodge....I am not risking being in a house without basement or underground shelter Ö I know how to drive and to go the opposite way of the twister :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 04, 2020, 05:04:09 PM
I am ok with the big supercells out that way....at least you can see it approaching from miles away Ö. I am of the belief if I see that a potential f4-f5 is headed my way and it is about 5-6 miles away I am getting in the car and getting out of dodge....I am not risking being in a house without basement or underground shelter Ö I know how to drive and to go the opposite way of the twister :)

I get ya. If I lived in a home I didn't trust to stick it out in, I would probably do the same. However, I have read that meteorologists, storm chasers and law enforcement officers almost unanimously advise against residents getting out and driving anywhere from an approaching tornado. Tornados can make 180 degree turns and are extremely unpredictable in real-time. It's almost impossible to out-drive them, too, as you have the following obstacles to overcome: 1) the winds blowing in the opposing direction, 2) other motorists, 3) uncertainty of the state of the roads by which you plan to escape.


Again, choosing not to drive is easier said than done. What if you're in a mobile home? A tornado rated EF-2 or higher approaching your residence is an automatic death sentence.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 04, 2020, 05:39:11 PM
It will probably snow this week. They just closed our school system for the rest of the week because of the flu.  Our granddaughter is thrilled. She never got sick because I have been giving her Elderberry syrup every morning since school started back in August.  :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 04, 2020, 05:46:16 PM
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall_v2/index.html?season=2008-2009&date=2019020412&version=3


Check this out if you haven't before. Snowfall by season dating back to '08.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 04, 2020, 05:56:11 PM
It shows Johnson City in the 1-2 foot category. This is right on target. Last year we had 14 inches and 4 years ago we had 23 inches. We have only had 4 inches this year. The last 2 years we have had no upslope northwest flow events. A good winter we can have 4 or 5 of those with 2 or 3 inches per event. The 10 inch snow last year helped that total big time


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 04, 2020, 06:01:27 PM
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall_v2/index.html?season=2008-2009&date=2019020412&version=3


Check this out if you haven't before. Snowfall by season dating back to '08.

that's a GREAT product! thanks!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 04, 2020, 06:15:49 PM
No problem!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clay on February 04, 2020, 06:25:14 PM
I am ok with the big supercells out that way....at least you can see it approaching from miles away Ö. I am of the belief if I see that a potential f4-f5 is headed my way and it is about 5-6 miles away I am getting in the car and getting out of dodge....I am not risking being in a house without basement or underground shelter Ö I know how to drive and to go the opposite way of the twister :)
Lack of visibility and a gridded road network make chasing so much more dangerous in the Southeast.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 04, 2020, 06:58:17 PM
Long range GFS and Euro look like dejavu from last February.  ::drowning::
Iíll buy the weekend snow threat when I see it on the ground. Both models look decent, but temps will of course be marginal.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Susan on February 04, 2020, 07:14:00 PM
Interesting, I'm pretty sure this morning's NWS 5-day forecast graphic had removed flurries from Thursday night, it is back now, but no mention in the discussion.  Not on the graphic for early Saturday either, but in the discussion.   ::shrug::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 04, 2020, 08:09:30 PM
just an honest question....how can people be talking about snow when the temps for the weekend are forecast mid and upper 40's?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2020, 08:31:37 PM
just an honest question....how can people be talking about snow when the temps for the weekend are forecast mid and upper 40's?

It could just be passing flurries emanating from an upper-level wave.  They typically "make" their own cold air. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clay on February 04, 2020, 09:55:41 PM
It could just be passing flurries emanating from an upper-level wave.  They typically "make" their own cold air.
Doesn't translate to the surface but 0z tries to go negative tilt with the trough. We're close to something more significant.
Title: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 04, 2020, 10:08:17 PM
00z GFS (96 hrs out)
My East Tn folk
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200205/f22cd24de67e8adb0ace4ca09b3714f3.jpg)


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2020, 07:15:54 AM
00z GFS (96 hrs out)
My East Tn folk
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200205/f22cd24de67e8adb0ace4ca09b3714f3.jpg)


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0z Euro says nope.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 05, 2020, 07:44:27 AM
0z Euro says nope.
Stop raining on East Tnís parade . Weíre getting enough rain as it is lol. Iím hopeful something flies Fri/Sat. Accumulation would be unlikely given warm saturated ground. But, I just wanna see it Snow, at least.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Flash on February 05, 2020, 07:58:34 AM
Not sure if I should feel a bit more optimistic this morning about our Friday snow chances. I'm sure the recent NAM runs have too much backend moisture, but in a temporary vacuum, I'm digging the trends, if not at least for the terrain-favored locations on the rim/plateau.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 05, 2020, 08:01:33 AM
Stop raining on East Tnís parade . Weíre getting enough rain as it is lol. Iím hopeful something flies Fri/Sat. Accumulation would be unlikely given warm saturated ground. But, I just wanna see it Snow, at least.


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Probably have to see if the King changes his mind today.  If not then we all will need boats instead of sleds for the next week or so.  ::snowman:: or ::drowning::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2020, 08:32:51 AM
0z Euro for the next ten days....

(https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020020500/240/qpf_acc.us_ov.png)

12z NAM3 skews show surface temps 33-35F, yet seem supportive of snow due to the very cold upper levels.  May see a bunch of splatting and melting but it's something.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 05, 2020, 08:38:48 AM
0z Euro for the next ten days....

(https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020020500/240/qpf_acc.us_ov.png)

12z NAM3 skews show surface temps 33-35F, yet seem supportive of snow due to the very cold upper levels.  May see a bunch of splatting and melting but it's something.
Yep looks a boat may be needed over the next couple of weeks.

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 05, 2020, 09:34:33 AM
0z Euro for the next ten days....

(https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020020500/240/qpf_acc.us_ov.png)

12z NAM3 skews show surface temps 33-35F, yet seem supportive of snow due to the very cold upper levels.  May see a bunch of splatting and melting but it's something.
That translates to 44 inches of snow for my area. Bring it. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 05, 2020, 09:54:19 AM
0z Euro for the next ten days....

(https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020020500/240/qpf_acc.us_ov.png)

12z NAM3 skews show surface temps 33-35F, yet seem supportive of snow due to the very cold upper levels.  May see a bunch of splatting and melting but it's something.
9.2Ē IMBY. Too bad itíll be 99% liquid


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2020, 10:18:24 AM
12z GFS trending colder with temps Thursday night into Friday...

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_7.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_8.png)

Majority of whatever falls will splat, but it's conceivable - even arguable - that some of the more favored snow spots could see an extremely fluffy 1/2" atop elevated surfaces.  The idea of snow falling, at the very least, is backed up by the 0z Euro, 12z NAM3 and 12z Canuck. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 05, 2020, 10:27:12 AM
12z GFS trending colder with temps Thursday night into Friday...

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_7.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_8.png)

Majority of whatever falls will splat, but it's conceivable - even arguable - that some of the more favored snow spots could see an extremely fluffy 1/2" atop elevated surfaces.  The idea of snow falling, at the very least, is backed up by the 0z Euro, 12z NAM3 and 12z Canuck.

Looks like a possible flurry fest..... but would be nice to see a few
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2020, 10:40:08 AM
SPC just upgraded portions of AL/MS to an ENHANCED risk.  I'd say that was unexpected...  ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 05, 2020, 12:38:06 PM
12k and 3k NAM are converging to the same solution re: Thursday/Friday flurryfest for Middle Tennessee
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on February 05, 2020, 01:41:22 PM
I got out for a couple of errands at lunch today and with the real rainfall barely started we've already got full ditches and water into roadways at some points. With the amount still coming we may see some road closures and other problems with high water by the weekend.  Next week might simply be a repeat of the same process.  ::drowning::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 05, 2020, 01:43:56 PM
If GFS & Euro are correct.  We are looking at a lot of rain.  As in 8-12Ē.  We are going to have serious flooding issues if that happens. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mudaddict on February 05, 2020, 02:44:58 PM
18z 3knam is interesting...just a casual 989mb low over the tri cities..
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2020, 03:32:42 PM
18z 3knam is interesting...just a casual 989mb low over the tri cities..

I think the NAM is having convective feedback issues which is leading to abnormally deep low pressure areas.  I think there was something about this floating across the Twitterwebs this morning.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 05, 2020, 04:06:55 PM
There is good agreement on models that most will see some flakes Thursday night and Friday.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2020, 04:13:50 PM
OHX:

Quote
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-STATE, DROPPING TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY. WHAT STINKS IS THAT WE MAY VERY WELL HAVE PLENTY
OF PRECIP LEFT OVER AS THE AIR GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY STUFF.
A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, TO POTENTIALLY
ALL SNOW IS IN THE WORKS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. I DO HAVE SOME VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TYPICAL AREAS WITH
THIS TYPE OF SET-UP -- ALONG THE KY/TN STATE LINE AND ON THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MODELS HAVE CLOSE TO AN INCH IN SEVERAL PLACES
I'VE MENTIONED, BUT WITH WARM, WET GROUNDS, I DON'T SEE THAT MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATING. A DUSTING TO A QUARTER INCH IS MORE LIKELY IN
THE AREAS I MENTIONED, WITH CLOSE TO AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS ON THE
PLATEAU BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS WE CLOSE IN ON THIS TIME FRAME,
WE'LL ANALYZE FURTHER FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY WINTER HEADLINES
THAT MAY BE NECESSARY.

IF THAT ISN'T ENOUGH, TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO WARM UP ENOUGH
BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN, BUT WE'LL
HAVE TO SEE ABOUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 05, 2020, 05:23:06 PM
OHX:
I doubt we will see much as soggy as the ground is right now. Oh wait, we might get a dusting on the trampoline though. How sad is that Granddaughter will be thrilled with that scarce amount? 😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clay on February 05, 2020, 05:29:05 PM
OHX:
Did an intern from Michigan write up that discussion?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 05, 2020, 05:44:29 PM
Did an intern from Michigan write up that discussion?

Lol! "What stinks is..."  ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on February 05, 2020, 06:05:44 PM
Straight Up Battleground Zone[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 05, 2020, 06:21:36 PM
Nws memphis ...immediate attention. Nws out memphis is issuing a flzzard  warning starting midnight tomorrow nite to 6 am Friday... traveling could become hazardous, because the driver in front of you may come to a complete stop and look up into the sky and wondering what the crap is falling. The snow may actually become light at times causing a mini white out to go along with winds from north 5 to 10 mph. Stay tuned to local radio or tv for weather changes ...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 05, 2020, 06:41:14 PM
I just wish the pattern would flip for a week and dry us out. Just looked at models every day for the rest of February and a big ridge in the southeast with low pressure providing warm and rain every day. I have never seen a pattern look exactly the same for 4 weeks. Usually a ridge gets knocked down a few days every so often. This pattern sucks


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 05, 2020, 06:58:07 PM
I just wish the pattern would flip for a week and dry us out. Just looked at models every day for the rest of February and a big ridge in the southeast with low pressure providing warm and rain every day. I have never seen a pattern look exactly the same for 4 weeks. Usually a ridge gets knocked down a few days every so often. This pattern sucks


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We've been so, so unlucky the past four or five weeks. The ground in my area is so saturated that I don't think it has properly dried out since the last freeze. Everything reeks of rot and decay. It's nasty. Factor in the warm temperatures and there are bugs out, too. This is some nasty weather.

What I would give for a cold spell... I don't care if it's snowless. We need a break from the rain so badly, but we just aren't going to get it.

Remember how wet last year's February was? This year may have it beat. We'll see.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on February 05, 2020, 07:59:17 PM
There are already multiple road closures for high water around East TN. If the storms impacting the plateau come into the valley this is going to get much worse.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Jilly on February 05, 2020, 08:22:08 PM
Did an intern from Michigan write up that discussion?
I don't see the "jeeze-o-pete" word in it? ::cold::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 05, 2020, 08:25:10 PM
SREF plumes for BNA showing snowfall trending up, up, up
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Greyhound on February 05, 2020, 08:27:11 PM
There are already multiple road closures for high water around East TN. If the storms impacting the plateau come into the valley this is going to get much worse.
Yeah.....t-storm warnings popping up for Cumberland and Fentress counties.  It will be here soon


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 05, 2020, 09:02:20 PM
Every storm cell track stretching all the way to south of lake Charles LA is aimed at East TN. Gonna be a long night.
Title: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 05, 2020, 09:27:24 PM
00z NAM 3k. Next 24hrs. We need a boat up here in East Tn. Heavy rain right now. Feels like a repeat of last February.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200206/f0f289b26023d63224441756eac1c70a.jpg)


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 05, 2020, 09:36:35 PM
00z NAM 3k. Next 24hrs. We need a boat up here in East Tn. Heavy rain right now. Feels like a repeat of last February.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200206/f0f289b26023d63224441756eac1c70a.jpg)




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And in August thru October we will be wishing for rain.
Repeat and rinse every year lately! 😖😖😖
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2020, 06:26:06 AM
Snowflakes falling in the burg. 34 degrees
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 07:35:18 AM
I'm hopeful we'll see some accumulation tonight.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: wfrogge on February 06, 2020, 07:57:38 AM
Put this out there a few weeks ago and it is still holding true.  The pattern for the south is ripe for severe weather through February going into March.  If nothing else it looks wet
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 06, 2020, 08:05:17 AM
Put this out there a few weeks ago and it is still holding true.  The pattern for the south is ripe for severe weather through February going into March.  If nothing else it looks wet
a lot going to depend on the strength and position of the se ridge ... but looks like prolong sw flow setting up
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Sbeagles on February 06, 2020, 08:35:39 AM
Recent heavy rains both locally and especially across eastern TN, with much more rain to come in the next 7-10 days has really upped the concern over major river flooding along the Tennessee River. Last year's record flooding at the end of February/first of March had us in boats rescuing people from their homes along the TN River. I hope that is not the case this year but wouldn't be surprised.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 06, 2020, 08:43:19 AM
Recent heavy rains both locally and especially across eastern TN, with much more rain to come in the next 7-10 days has really upped the concern over major river flooding along the Tennessee River. Last year's record flooding at the end of February/first of March had us in boats rescuing people from their homes along the TN River. I hope that is not the case this year but wouldn't be surprised.
think all this rain will mess up this years crappie fishing Blake? Afraid it will
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Sbeagles on February 06, 2020, 09:06:44 AM
think all this rain will mess up this years crappie fishing Blake? Afraid it will
Definitely. Last years flood had a huge impact on fishing. Between flooding and asian carp there isn't much need in fishing the stretch of water north of pickwick south of birdsong.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 06, 2020, 09:10:00 AM
Definitely. Last years flood had a huge impact on fishing. Between flooding and asian carp there isn't much need in fishing the stretch of water north of pickwick south of birdsong.

I fished Birdsong twice in the last few months with an ace crappie friend, it was awful. We fished hard and scraped up a few scrawny little crappie.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Hank W on February 06, 2020, 09:59:50 AM
Man let's hope this doesn't come to fruition. Both the TN and MS rivers are definitely under threat for potential flooding.

https://twitter.com/majorflood42/status/1225162391173976067?s=20 (https://twitter.com/majorflood42/status/1225162391173976067?s=20)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 10:25:53 AM
The period from 2018 through now surely has to be among the wettest in our recorded history.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: NismoWx on February 06, 2020, 10:46:14 AM
Flizzard and 35į in PAH. I did not dress appropriately for working in these conditions.

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Edit: it was 50į when I left Smyrna this morning.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on February 06, 2020, 10:49:16 AM
I fished Birdsong twice in the last few months with an ace crappie friend, it was awful. We fished hard and scraped up a few scrawny little crappie.

My area. A ton of guys out fishing and no luck. Now the cats on the other hand have still been pretty good.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2020, 11:24:34 AM
12z GFS says what SE ridge.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 06, 2020, 11:28:44 AM
12z GFS says what SE ridge.  ::shrug::
first run of such... course euro has been all on it... see if itís trend or gfs being gfs...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 06, 2020, 11:29:33 AM
12z GFS says what SE ridge.  ::shrug::
I don't know what's going on. We now have model agreement on flakes statewide this evening, even a fair shot at a little accumulation. Now, we've got the long range models flip-flopping to cold in the long range.  ::pondering::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 06, 2020, 11:36:09 AM
Certainly looks like the AO/NAO slips back towards negative - maybe more neutral than negative and the PNA goes positive.  That's the first indication of a teleconnection shift that we've seen come from numerical data in quite a while.  Even a neutral AO will allow us to be under the influence of a northwest flow.  Maybe we can squeeze out a few clippers before the calendar flips the page towards spring.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 12:37:09 PM
I am almost praying for a pattern change.

I need it so badly. One last shot ot of cold and dry would be beneficial for my garden. My plants are in trouble if these 8-12" rain totals that we have seen on the Euro verify. And that's on top of all of the rain we have received last month.

My whole yard is a giant mudhole. I would love for a nice, dry freeze to come in soon. But that ain't gonna happen.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2020, 12:52:14 PM
This winter is so similar to last winter. February was a deluge also if youíll recall.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2020, 01:10:03 PM
Most of yíall might already know but Pivotal now has hi-res Euro.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 06, 2020, 01:13:43 PM
I am almost praying for a pattern change.

I need it so badly. One last shot ot of cold and dry would be beneficial for my garden. My plants are in trouble if these 8-12" rain totals that we have seen on the Euro verify. And that's on top of all of the rain we have received last month.

My whole yard is a giant mudhole. I would love for a nice, dry freeze to come in soon. But that ain't gonna happen.

It sure has been spot on so far as far as the rainfall estimates hasn't it....lots of flash flooding for the south
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mudaddict on February 06, 2020, 02:29:41 PM
18z 3k nam gives me more snow tonight than I've seen in years. Please for once actually be correct lol.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 02:39:28 PM
I'll cash the fvck out on that 18z nam

2" IMBY
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 06, 2020, 02:41:50 PM
ok so I am obviously not AS smart as you guys are, but is this flurry/light snow just supposed to develop right on top of us....nothing on radar west of here?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 02:51:47 PM
Yeet. Humidity 87% according to my lil homemade weather station. So, the cold air that's rushing in behind that strong low will squeeze out some moisture that's still in the air. As the temps drop down to the mid 30s, the air will become saturated, and it's gon' snow/splat until it's 32ish.

That's thanks to the low being situated to our NE, so that moist gulf air still lingers in our location despite the fresh cold front


Hope I am right, plz correct me if not, for I am an armchair weather kid.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 06, 2020, 03:07:30 PM
Winter Weather Advisory for most of Mid TN.  Greater accums over the Plateau.  No big surprise there.

Post Merge: February 06, 2020, 03:08:31 PM
ok so I am obviously not AS smart as you guys are, but is this flurry/light snow just supposed to develop right on top of us....nothing on radar west of here?

A mid-level impulse will swing through tonight and fire off light precip. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: TNHunter on February 06, 2020, 03:11:15 PM
Getting a nice band of snow in Dyer County right now.  Won't stick but is pretty to watch
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 06, 2020, 03:20:48 PM
of course as usual I am not gonna get anything along the 412 corridor
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 06, 2020, 03:27:06 PM
Latest HRRR (20z) Kuchera has .5-1" for a good portion of MiddleTN. Bad thing is, it starts around midnight. In my younger days I would set the alarm and wake up to catch some of it...not these days.  ::sleeping::

edit: 18z NAM is being generous was well for MiddleTN. Do we have a little surprise brewing?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 06, 2020, 03:28:17 PM
Latest HRRR (20z) Kuchera has .5-1" for a good portion of MiddleTN. Bad thing is, it starts around midnight. In my younger days I would set the alarm and wake up to catch some of it...not these days.  ::sleeping::

yeah that much will fall but most will not stick been so rainy and warm lately
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 06, 2020, 03:32:52 PM
.2 qpf per 20z HRRR.  10:1 gets 2", but over half of that gets wasted on warm ground and marginal temps.  So goes the days of our lives.

Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 06, 2020, 03:37:44 PM
.2 qpf per 20z HRRR.  10:1 gets 2", but over half of that gets wasted on warm ground and marginal temps.  So goes the days of our lives.

All things considered, I'd be happy with a healthy dusting and surprised with an inch or more.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 04:16:56 PM
[attachimg=1]

We can see where OHX thinks the warm air will be. Note: this is where they expect accumulating snowfall. It appears that southern middle will experience minimal accumulation on the ground due to the warm air.

With temperatures on the Plateau below freezing for the entire event, I wouldn't be surprised for some places to come out of there with 3" or more. NAM is very robust with the QPF; HRRR less so, but its runs have been trending toward more QPF.

Like snowdog said, I'll be happy with 0.5" and thrilled with 1" or more. The accumulation all depends on the air temperatures. Where I am, temperatures will hang around 35 until the precipitation has moved on, so accumulation will occur if, and only if, the snow is heavy enough. If it's light then this will result in zilch.

Aside, everyone will be seeing some flakes tonight, and that's a small victory amid crappy warm winters like this one.

Post Merge: February 06, 2020, 04:19:45 PM
of course as usual I am not gonna get anything along the 412 corridor

I'm not too sure about that. I believe that you'll see snowfall heavy enough to at least coat the ground where you are.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 06, 2020, 04:28:55 PM
(Attachment Link)

We can see where OHX thinks the warm air will be. Note: this is where they expect accumulating snowfall. It appears that southern middle will experience minimal accumulation on the ground due to the warm air.

With temperatures on the Plateau below freezing for the entire event, I wouldn't be surprised for some places to come out of there with 3" or more. NAM is very robust with the QPF; HRRR less so, but its runs have been trending toward more QPF.

Like snowdog said, I'll be happy with 0.5" and thrilled with 1" or more. The accumulation all depends on the air temperatures. Where I am, temperatures will hang around 35 until the precipitation has moved on, so accumulation will occur if, and only if, the snow is heavy enough. If it's light then this will result in zilch.

Aside, everyone will be seeing some flakes tonight, and that's a small victory amid crappy warm winters like this one.

Post Merge: February 06, 2020, 04:19:45 PM
I'm not too sure about that. I believe that you'll see snowfall heavy enough to at least coat the ground where you are.

I am being 100 percent honest I have had no measurable snow in 3 years so I won't believe it until I see it....my heart has been hardened towards winter lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 05:00:19 PM
I am being 100 percent honest I have had no measurable snow in 3 years so I won't believe it until I see it....my heart has been hardened towards winter lol

We know   ;)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2020, 05:09:41 PM
It has been 34 degrees here all day. Perfect temps to start a good snow if we had a little more moisture to work with.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 05:12:28 PM
Temps have remained lower than what was forecasted IMBY, too.

Today's high was supposed to top 41 degrees, but my weather station at home reported a maximum of 38 today at 2pm. It's at 36.5 now.

Post Merge: February 06, 2020, 05:15:23 PM
It has been 34 degrees here all day. Perfect temps to start a good snow if we had a little more moisture to work with.

I hope you can cash in out in Dyersburg. You're right there on the line.

Seeing any flurries yet?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 06, 2020, 05:38:15 PM
Temps have remained lower than what was forecasted IMBY, too.

Today's high was supposed to top 41 degrees, but my weather station at home reported a maximum of 38 today at 2pm. It's at 36.5 now.

Post Merge: February 06, 2020, 05:15:23 PM
I hope you can cash in out in Dyersburg. You're right there on the line.

Seeing any flurries yet?
the key to getting accumulation tonight will be getting some heavier returns, if you happen to get     a heavier band should start to coat the ground plus that itself will drop the air temp even more....
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 05:39:10 PM
Yes sir! That's what I'm hoping for. Heavy wet snow can accumulate even if it's 37 degrees.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 06, 2020, 06:01:29 PM
We know   ;)

idk how you could know that...its not like I have mentioned it before LOL!!!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 06:06:40 PM
idk how you could know that...its not like I have mentioned it before LOL!!!

 ::lookaround::

Dude, it's ok. That's what this board is here for. Snow is so tricky to come around at this latitude and elevation. It's a treat when we get it.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 06, 2020, 06:07:00 PM
I see a small bit of blue starting in Eastern Arkansas on radar. Looks to be heading to the northeast.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 06, 2020, 06:09:49 PM
I see a small bit of blue starting in Eastern Arkansas on radar. Looks to be heading to the northeast.  ::snowman::

quite a bit of radar returns showing up west of Memphis and in Mississippi :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 06, 2020, 06:12:54 PM
Getting some light snow. Down to 33
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 06:24:28 PM
Fck it boys, I'm riding, idc anymore
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 06, 2020, 06:29:38 PM
Noticing the good returns just west of Memphis, thinking good vibes! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 06, 2020, 06:34:01 PM
Wife said it was snowing in Paris. I'm still in Denver, so I can't confirm or deny.
Just west of me in the mountains are getting hammered.
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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 06, 2020, 06:44:21 PM
Wife said it was snowing in Paris. I'm still in Denver, so I can't confirm or deny.
Just west of me in the mountains are getting hammered.
Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk
Your wife is correct Drift, spitting snow here in Montgomery County as well. Pretty good returns also showing up in eastern Arkansas. It is now picking up just slightly here. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 06, 2020, 06:45:23 PM
Your wife is correct Drift, spitting snow here in Montgomery County as well. Pretty good returns also showing up in eastern Arkansas. It is now picking up just slightly here. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
I did notice the precip seemed to be just blowing up out of nowhere.

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2020, 06:56:00 PM
Looks like a nice band is trying to get going from Memphis to Jackson. Good luck to everyone.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 07:26:12 PM
Memphis boys, what are y'all seeing? Temps IYBY?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 06, 2020, 07:37:04 PM
meg putting out wwa now...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 06, 2020, 07:39:09 PM
meg putting out wwa now...
Just got the alert myself.

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 06, 2020, 07:42:53 PM
Memphis boys, what are y'all seeing? Temps IYBY?
Showing 32 in Paris.

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: marjl21 on February 06, 2020, 07:47:44 PM
I can confirm a dusting on cars and nothing on the ground with light snow in Germantown based on cameras at my house. I can also confirm that it was sunny and 85 in Orlando with a slight sunburn after a day at the pool, since Iím out of town for our one snow day this winter  ::cliff::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2020, 07:50:35 PM
Light snow and 33



Post Merge: February 06, 2020, 07:58:29 PM
Roofs and car have gotten white rather quickly.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 06, 2020, 08:05:23 PM
I can confirm a dusting on cars and nothing on the ground with light snow in Germantown based on cameras at my house. I can also confirm that it was sunny and 85 in Orlando with a slight sunburn after a day at the pool, since Iím out of town for our one snow day this winter  ::cliff::
Well I would be just fine being in Orlando and 85! I do love me some snow but the cold gets to my cranky old bones. So I would take that over a dusting! 😊
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 06, 2020, 08:11:45 PM
Seeing tons on video in Memphis of moderate snow.

Down to 32 here now.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 06, 2020, 08:13:21 PM
Well I would be just fine being in Orlando and 85! I do love me some snow but the cold gets to my cranky old bones. So I would take that over a dusting! 😊
take that back Beth... ur not old. I was born 62 also.lol yeah 85 and pool weather sounds good too

Post Merge: February 06, 2020, 08:17:29 PM
Seeing tons on video in Memphis of moderate snow.

Down to 32 here now.
yeah the returns are starting to get little heavier around you curt
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clay on February 06, 2020, 08:21:48 PM
Just saw a video put of Bartlett. Grass looked completely covered
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 06, 2020, 08:27:15 PM
Getting some reports of heavy snow in the Memphis suburbs. Probably going to be some grassy accumulations fairly quickly Streets are wet and no surprise there.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2020, 08:30:34 PM
Getting some reports of heavy snow in the Memphis suburbs. Probably going to be some grassy accumulations fairly quickly Streets are wet and no surprise there.

Well- very interesting... I can see some returns increasing from that direction on BNA radar now.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: WXHD on February 06, 2020, 08:30:58 PM
So.... Metro Nashville schools closed for tomorrow. Iím a little embarrassed.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2020, 08:35:42 PM
Color me intrigued.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mempho on February 06, 2020, 08:36:09 PM
What is happening outside??? I can't actually believe it.

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2020, 08:41:12 PM
We would be in business here if we had the returns that are just south. We have a nice dusting with only light snow.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on February 06, 2020, 08:42:27 PM
Gotta be honest. Based on returns, Nashville Metro could end up with a couple of inches by tomorrow morning.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 06, 2020, 08:44:06 PM
So.... Metro Nashville schools closed for tomorrow. Iím a little embarrassed.
I think it is not just snow but Flu too. Friends at the School board told me.

Post Merge: February 06, 2020, 08:51:28 PM
It is snowing in Dickson!!!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 08:57:08 PM
Light snow shower here in Fairview.

 ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Sbeagles on February 06, 2020, 08:57:52 PM
Decent snow shower southwest of linden on river!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 06, 2020, 08:59:46 PM
If there's a surprise, the models don't see it. Hence the surprise, right? HRRR and Hi-Res NAM both showing between .5" to 1" but it's nowcast time anyway.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: fireghost239 on February 06, 2020, 09:00:05 PM
Roof tops and grass are white at my house in Southaven.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 06, 2020, 09:01:38 PM
time for radar and window watching, can't believe it, snow in lewis county and the radar returns aren't even heavy here yet :)

and as usual south of I-40 not in the wwa lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 09:04:19 PM
time for radar and window watching, can't believe it, snow in lewis county and the radar returns aren't even heavy here yet :)

and as usual south of I-40 not in the wwa lol

Told ya!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 06, 2020, 09:05:27 PM
Told ya!

oh ME of little faith lol.....but it's still sad this excited over a grassy .5-1 inch BUT beggers can't be choosers lol

Post Merge: February 06, 2020, 09:09:40 PM
BIG flakes here now in Hohenwald! and hours to go :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mudaddict on February 06, 2020, 09:18:41 PM
Getting some rain here in Mboro.....:(
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: lyngo on February 06, 2020, 09:22:43 PM
Saw a few flakes here in Hermitage when taking the dog out for the evening..
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 06, 2020, 09:24:25 PM
oh ME of little faith lol.....but it's still sad this excited over a grassy .5-1 inch BUT beggers can't be choosers lol

Post Merge: February 06, 2020, 09:09:40 PM
BIG flakes here now in Hohenwald! and hours to go :)
See!!! You are getting snow!! I think it will get better soon. Better than nothing! 😊😊😊
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 06, 2020, 09:24:25 PM
Starting to really maximize the dendritic zone as the disturbance is a couple hours from moving out this direction. Flakes are getting big and heavier with a little enhancement as predicted just east of Memohis.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 06, 2020, 09:28:33 PM
We canít complain about how small the flakes are tonight. Thank God we have snow instead of the dreary rain!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 06, 2020, 09:35:34 PM
Ok itís ridiculous heavy now. Wonít last that long but itís nice to look at. Ground getting a solid cover.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 06, 2020, 09:36:55 PM
Big flakes here now north Madison county .
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clay on February 06, 2020, 09:39:02 PM
Snow has commenced in Southern Davidson Co.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 09:45:08 PM
Snow flakes are slowly getting bigger in Fairview. Picking up in intensity
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Volduff64 on February 06, 2020, 09:53:08 PM
Snow has begun in East Nashville
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on February 06, 2020, 09:58:46 PM
So we're getting all of this in Nashville Metro from southern Middle TN plus what just moved through Memphis???
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 06, 2020, 10:03:21 PM
Nice looking returns just to my west in Stewart Co, snow should start to pick up here soon. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 10:07:52 PM
Ground is white here now.

If snow continues to fall at this rate and at 32F, we'll get an inch out of this. I'll take it!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 06, 2020, 10:26:52 PM
Snowing good here in woodlawn, grass is getting white.  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: bugalou on February 06, 2020, 10:30:10 PM
Got at least half an inch on the grass here with things ramping down. Too bad I was working and couldn't see it falling!

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 10:35:07 PM
Somewhere between a quarter and a half and inch here now
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mudaddict on February 06, 2020, 10:40:37 PM
Hopefully we can get a changeover soon, this 36 degree rain with snow 20 miles to my west is depressing.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on February 06, 2020, 10:42:41 PM
Rooftops & cars are turning white in Hermitage
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: RABBITT040 on February 06, 2020, 10:48:04 PM
About a half inch in Spring Hill and still snowing....
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mudaddict on February 06, 2020, 10:52:07 PM
Yay we have changeover! :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Volduff64 on February 06, 2020, 11:04:26 PM
Heavy band setting up north south over Nashville
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2020, 11:10:07 PM
We may end up with an inch, all set and done.

Nice little event in the middle of a gloomy winter. And a reminder that not only is there still hope, but also to cherish the little things.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 06, 2020, 11:17:42 PM
Still snowing here, ground is all white. I am guessing a quarter to half inch, we may make a run at a inch if we are lucky. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: lyngo on February 06, 2020, 11:26:15 PM
Ground white and looks like weíre going to get one last heavier band here in Hermitage.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: RABBITT040 on February 06, 2020, 11:56:11 PM
Just had a heavy band go through here in Spring Hill!! Awesome to see that when I did not think we would get anything this winter. Looks like 1Ē to 2Ē here!!!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clay on February 06, 2020, 11:59:30 PM
Almost an inch here!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 07, 2020, 02:42:09 AM
Slept through it all but just measured 1.6" on the snowboard!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 07, 2020, 05:36:50 AM
Looks like East Tn Valley may only eek a few flurries or mix outta this. And if the next 48hrs look like this 06z NAM 3k map, Iím gonna be pissed. ATL getting anything before we do aint right. The good ole East Tn Valley snow dome.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200207/d8bc72eee114432335a4281373084ff8.jpg)


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 07, 2020, 06:28:45 AM
1.5" in Fairview  ::snowman::
Title: February 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on February 07, 2020, 06:29:04 AM
Maybe an inch here- it is a beautiful sight on the ground and in the trees.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 07, 2020, 06:31:10 AM
Something you donít see often...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200207/4e25749a104cd53dbd6bbda2202a1842.jpg)


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 07, 2020, 07:30:27 AM
I even had a coating of slush on my back porch and my truck this morning. Wasn't expecting that. Looks like the ground was too warm for anything to stick there.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on February 07, 2020, 07:36:32 AM
About a 1/2 inch of snow here.  Enough to keep me at home and grading papers and to not get shut out during the winter months. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 07, 2020, 07:47:07 AM
About a 1/2 inch of snow here.  Enough to keep me at home and grading papers and to not get shut out during the winter months.
yeah. Thatís the main theme for this little event . We didnít get shut out .. now it makes me hungry for big dog . Thatís bad part

Post Merge: February 07, 2020, 07:53:54 AM
0z euro day 10... yeah I said it. So go ahead abuse me lol...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Sbeagles on February 07, 2020, 08:00:30 AM
Maybe a 1/2Ē here or little less. Nothing big but ranks up there with the biggest snow Iíve seen in 3years lol.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 07, 2020, 08:03:15 AM
Flizzard in Kingsport. Call in the Guard .


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 07, 2020, 08:07:39 AM
End up very close to one inch here... all on grass n cars . Drive into work was no problem
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 07, 2020, 08:09:25 AM
Got about a inch of car tops and elevated surfaces, about half to 3/4 on the ground and still snowing pretty good at the moment. Happy most of us at least got something, pretty good little system that kind of developed right over us. ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on February 07, 2020, 08:10:06 AM
We woke up to a decent dusting on the grass and are now at 33 with decent flurries.  It's not much but it is rather pretty and nice to watch.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 07, 2020, 08:13:17 AM
Had a little over an inch. Definitely an over performer. No telling how much we could've had if we didn't have surface temp issues because it snowed pretty good for a few hours.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 07, 2020, 08:17:26 AM
The models nailed it- for my area at least. First time in a long time they all reached a consensus and didn't budge 24 hours in advance.

I'm very happy with this. It's not much, but it's beautiful to look at nonetheless. Amid the mild, nasty weather, this was a lovely surprise that seemed to appear out of nowhere.

Hopefully this winter isn't finished yet. Based on the long range signaling an MJO shift into the negative phases, I think we have some more in store. It could very well be one of those strange winters where we only get some action at the very beginning and at the end.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 07, 2020, 08:27:43 AM
The models nailed it- for my area at least. First time in a long time they all reached a consensus and didn't budge 24 hours in advance.

They were very good yesterday with the accumulation for my area. I measured 1.6" on the snowboard, obviously there was less in the grass. I do have a little elevation going for me as I'm near 1000 feet. Kind of surprised we were never added to the advisory. I think the radar data is pretty poor for southwest middle TN and it gets unintentionally overlooked at times.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 07, 2020, 08:28:01 AM
This minor event was really well handled by the HRR. Probably ended up just with about 1.5. There was a 2 hour period of heavy snow so it was way more than a flizzard. Had we actually had cold temps previous more would have even stuck to the grassy areas. Either way- wrecks are aplenty this morning with bridges and overpasses a mess. And melting has already started too.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 07, 2020, 08:39:14 AM
1.5 inches imby in lewis county ( not in the wwa ) lol....people at nws forget that the west highland rim is anywhere from 900-1100 feet in elevation sometimes I think
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 07, 2020, 08:39:34 AM
We got about 1.5 inches.  I Love it with snow sticking to trees and bushes. And I have a very excited 8 yr old who is so ready to go out and play in it.  May have to take the golf cart for a spin and take pictures. 😁☃️❄️☃️
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 07, 2020, 08:42:42 AM
We got about 1.5 inches.  I Love it with snow sticking to trees and bushes. And I have a very excited 8 yr old who is so ready to go out and play in it.  May have to take the golf cart for a spin and take pictures. 😁☃️❄️☃️
yeah itís a pretty view this morning.. my 2 n half grandson and 4 old granddaughter were very excited  just to see that much
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 07, 2020, 08:43:22 AM
1.5 inches imby in lewis county ( not in the wwa ) lol....people at nws forget that the west highland rim is anywhere from 900-1100 feet in elevation sometimes I think

Same! I cashed in with 1.5" up here on the Rim, too. My house sits at 900 feet, which is 300' higher than Nashville.

Current temp: 29
Downtown Nashville: 33

UHI + Elevation makes a huge difference
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 07, 2020, 08:47:28 AM
Same! I cashed in with 1.5" up here on the Rim, too. My house sits at 900 feet, which is 300' higher than Nashville.

Current temp: 29
Downtown Nashville: 33

UHI + Elevation makes a huge difference

everytime I am coming home from work headed west the temp drops 3 degrees as we make the steady climb into my county....I am at 989 feet as compared to the 500's in Columbia, really makes a difference , that's why so many times I-65 corridor gets shafted and areas surrounding it get the white stuff :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 07, 2020, 08:49:16 AM
Concerning the snow potential for tonight, Chattanooga might receive more snow than they have gotten in five years. Models agree on 1-2" for Hamilton county.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 07, 2020, 08:57:38 AM
1.5 inches imby in lewis county ( not in the wwa ) lol....people at nws forget that the west highland rim is anywhere from 900-1100 feet in elevation sometimes I think

Agreed. Lots of places at or near 1000 feet in Lewis, Wayne, Lawrence, Marshall, Lincoln and other areas in south central and southwest middle TN.

Fun fact of the day that I've shared in the past:
The highest elevation on all of I-65 is in Marshall county right at 1200 feet between exits 27 and 32.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 07, 2020, 10:00:33 AM
We've added 0.4" since I measured at 6am this morning. I'm up to 1.9" now thanks to the persistent light snow and sub-freezing temperatures.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clay on February 07, 2020, 10:04:04 AM
1.0" officially at Nashville Int'l
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on February 07, 2020, 10:05:33 AM
1.5 inches imby in lewis county ( not in the wwa ) lol....people at nws forget that the west highland rim is anywhere from 900-1100 feet in elevation sometimes I think


Congrats on finally ending the streak.   
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 07, 2020, 10:26:46 AM

Congrats on finally ending the streak.

whew that was a long 700+ days lol....now lets get us one big widespread 5-7 snowfall this season down the road! :):):)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: JHart on February 07, 2020, 11:25:24 AM
We managed about one inch of slushy accumulation in Lascassas; and yes, my internal snow alarm woke me up a little past midnight so I got to see most of it fall.   :D

I am paying for that at work today, but the drive in was gorgeous.  What a sight for sore eyes!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 07, 2020, 01:01:58 PM
We have had some snow squalls in Johnson City today that would make the ground and road white then it would melt and come again. The temp is only 30 but the warm and wet ground  plus daylight does not allow it to stay long. If this would all have come at night we would have totaled 2 or 3 inches. Does the long range still look like crap for any cold and snow. The last time I looked it was looking a little better to maybe give us one shot before winter ends for a decent snow


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 07, 2020, 01:17:56 PM
We have had some snow squalls in Johnson City today that would make the ground and road white then it would melt and come again. The temp is only 30 but the warm and wet ground  plus daylight does not allow it to stay long. If this would all have come at night we would have totaled 2 or 3 inches. Does the long range still look like crap for any cold and snow. The last time I looked it was looking a little better to maybe give us one shot before winter ends for a decent snow


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[/quote todayís 12z runs are but warmer that last nights 0z suits... still no sign of much ao or nao change ... still looks stay positive to me along with a negative pna... hopefully it trend better in our favor ... todayís 12z euro hold severe with a potent system on end of the run still
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on February 07, 2020, 02:14:38 PM
The long-range pattern stinks for East TN and points East and South because of the -PNA and the Pacific Ridge is still too close to the West Coast of Alaska.  With a cold air mass nearby if that ridge were to be nudged a bit eastward then West TN/KY would possibly have a shot with an overrunning event that might extend into adjacent parts of Middle TN.   

Heavy rain and perhaps severe weather would be the main threats. Looks like a mix between January 2009 and February 2019 to be honest.   
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 07, 2020, 03:21:54 PM
Confidence is growing slightly that we could get a surprise down here tomorrow morning. FFC has already hoisted advisories for all of North Georgia. MRX will probably wait until the event is underway as per usual.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: cliftown04 on February 07, 2020, 03:56:29 PM
Iím very curious where this next round of rain next week will set up. If it parks over the Tennessee River watershed we are likely in for a repeat of last year.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 07, 2020, 05:25:09 PM
Iím very curious where this next round of rain next week will set up. If it parks over the Tennessee River watershed we are likely in for a repeat of last year.
Don't look at the 18Z GFS unless you bought a houseboat recently.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Sbeagles on February 07, 2020, 05:32:23 PM
Iím very curious where this next round of rain next week will set up. If it parks over the Tennessee River watershed we are likely in for a repeat of last year.
Last year was something like I had never seen. Would prefer to never see again, but this January and February so far have been very similar.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: WXHD on February 07, 2020, 08:30:57 PM
Red Buds are blooming here. As are cherry blossoms. I donít it concerning.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 07, 2020, 09:08:29 PM
Red Buds are blooming here. As are cherry blossoms. I donít it concerning.
Cherry trees havenít popped yet in the suburbs but they are in full bloom downtown. It would be great to see them covered in snow tomorrow morning.

Post Merge: February 08, 2020, 06:15:10 AM
And weíve got liftoff! Light snow, 30 degrees.

Post Merge: February 08, 2020, 06:56:56 AM
And after 45 minute I have matched my best snow total from the last 5ish years. Coming down hard at the moment.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on February 08, 2020, 06:57:34 AM
Advisories this morning are in effect for SE TN from Franklin County through Gatlinburg. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 08, 2020, 07:01:09 AM
Just not our year when you have this setup in February and donít get snow.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 08, 2020, 07:03:40 AM
Just not our year when you have this setup in February and donít get snow.

(Attachment Link)
just another big ole warm rain storm... while parts of gerogia under a winter storm warning, for 2 to 4 inches snow.. not fair
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: ChattSnow on February 08, 2020, 07:18:03 AM
Snowing pretty hard in Chattanooga

Post Merge: February 08, 2020, 07:22:10 AM
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 08, 2020, 07:36:03 AM
1.5Ē on my truck.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mempho on February 08, 2020, 07:53:57 AM
Okay-  that little bu of snow has me in the mood for the upcoming winter.  When do we think winter will kick in?

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 08, 2020, 07:54:59 AM
Okay-  that little bu of snow has me in the mood for the upcoming winter.  When do we think winter will kick in?

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2025

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 08, 2020, 07:55:59 AM
If we get lucky, lol


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Uncle Nasty on February 08, 2020, 07:59:50 AM
I posted this in the January thread on the 17th of January. I didn't make this prediction but was relaying what a local "weather nut" in Ooltewah was telling me. He said since he's retired he has time to kill and looks at weather charts and patterns year round. I just reposted what he told me. Not too bad considering he's an amateur met that just loves science. The first picture is the post from Jan 17th and the next few are current shots at our house. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200208/fd70017a37e47c17b92af28799619f15.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200208/9471c303e81d84ccbb13d83c94adfc4c.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200208/2151f27d67433900a1ff4fdfaf377edb.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200208/a34d0aa63557b441b3495fc8ffb6d003.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200208/82a31c65f1e178a943422e94f935fae9.jpg)

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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200208/fa674b055902b29b30c5a65f2ca2e811.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 08, 2020, 08:44:04 AM
Huge half dollar sized flakes are flying now. Got to be getting close to 3Ē on the elevated surfaces. The roads are white but they appear to be starting to slush up as the sun angle increases.


Biggest snowflakes Iíve ever seen now. Some are wider than my palm.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Uncle Nasty on February 08, 2020, 08:59:57 AM
Huge half dollar sized flakes are flying now. Got to be getting close to 3Ē on the elevated surfaces. The roads are white but they appear to be starting to slush up as the sun angle increases.


Biggest snowflakes Iíve ever seen now. Some are wider than my palm.
Accuracy of my measurements are relegated to a wooden yardstick and several measurements on our different patio tables. All were a solid 2+ inches. Still coming down hard too!(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200208/a18f70586202f002c19c4ab477dfac9e.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200208/1f2b49d8967222d003f3f34d268ffdaa.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200208/a341737086b89fd37a39c727a2781250.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 08, 2020, 09:04:13 AM
I just measured 4Ē on my back deck railing. 1.5Ē of that has fallen in the last 30 minutes.
Weíve officially reached winter storm warning criteria from MRX.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 08, 2020, 09:18:52 AM
Congrats to the Chattanooga area for scoring a snow, here is to too Knoxville cashing in on some also and good luck to all east tn folks. Enjoy it while it last. ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Uncle Nasty on February 08, 2020, 09:49:00 AM
Snow has just about ended here in Ooltewah. I need to take a final measurement. I can't get an accurate reading in the grass. Cleaning off my windshield it looked to be right at 4". It's the good, sloppy wet snow too.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200208/ab701ab94b673e5897ccdcc069688860.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200208/28660e4c582bc49d9447c8c12fbf85ed.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on February 08, 2020, 09:59:45 AM
It's been coming down hard for a while now in Knoxville and we've got a light coverage of everything except the roads. This won't turn into very much but it is a nice way to spend a Saturday by a warm fire.  ::snowman::  I hope everybody gets to enjoy a little bit of winter wonder before we go back to flooding next week. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 08, 2020, 10:07:24 AM
Looks like every interstate around Chattanooga is closed somewhere. I know TDOT wasnít expecting an event of this magnitude. None of us were.

BTW this event ratioed out at 15:1. Extremely rare to have anything over 10:1 in the southern valley, particularly with temps right around freezing. There was extreme dendrite growth and massive flake size that led to high ratios.
Title: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 08, 2020, 11:15:39 AM
Seems to be over performing in Morristown area. Woo hoo! Everything is white.

Over performing in much of East Tn.

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Title: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 08, 2020, 11:31:25 AM
Areas southeast of the line are getting a great over performing event. Coming down moderately in Morristown and many surrounding areas! (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200208/c892ea707312bd13efed6a2e5bf49f13.jpg)


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 08, 2020, 02:23:25 PM
A few pictures:

(https://i.imgur.com/nOgd8bj.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/zD8eTf6.jpg)

And a video from when it was puking giant snowballs:
 https://i.imgur.com/1eFjalV.mp4 (https://i.imgur.com/1eFjalV.mp4)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 08, 2020, 02:30:03 PM
A few pictures:

(https://i.imgur.com/nOgd8bj.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/zD8eTf6.jpg)

And a video from when it was puking giant snowballs:
 https://i.imgur.com/1eFjalV.mp4 (https://i.imgur.com/1eFjalV.mp4)
Awesome stuff! You in Chattanooga? We got maybe 1Ē in parts of Morristown. We looked like the cutoff line. More fell further south and east. Looks like you got about 4.5Ē?


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 08, 2020, 02:54:39 PM
Awesome stuff! You in Chattanooga? We got maybe 1Ē in parts of Morristown. We looked like the cutoff line. More fell further south and east. Looks like you got about 4.5Ē?

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Yep. Iím on the Georgia state line southeast of downtown. Was apparently in the sweet spot for once.

As quickly as it arrived, itís gone. From bare ground to 4+Ē back to bare ground in just over 8 hours. Wild weather.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 08, 2020, 03:53:09 PM
I'm so happy everyone in the state has finally seen some snowfall this winter. Especially Chattanooga. Poor Chatt has been shut out for 4 years until this morning.

I don't think we are done yet, either. This feels like one of those inverted winters.

We'll be above average for the near future, but we can see where the MJO is trending:

[attachimg=1]

The phases that are the most favorable for Tennessee snowfall in February and March are 8, 1, and 2. Of course, that doesn't mean everything, because all 4 of Tennessee's big cities witnessed snowfall since Thursday evening, all during phase 5.

The Rockies, Plains and Pacific Coast will be BN going into mid-February, but that might shift over here. Crossing my fingers for a Greenland Block to kill that pesky SE Ridge- not only for winter wx, but also to drive out the excessive rainfall.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2020, 07:06:04 PM
EPS and GEFS both show warm and wet to finish the month. We shall see.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 08, 2020, 08:43:47 PM
EPS and GEFS both show warm and wet to finish the month. We shall see.
ensembles shows this pattern not going anywhere least end of the month... not sure march yet little early , by then it be to late to salvage much winter im affraid
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on February 09, 2020, 07:17:31 AM
This pattern is stuck.  The only difference is that the EPO goes + during the last week of the month and the PNA goes neutral.  That may change us from warm to very wet to warm and perhaps not as wet as we head to March.   

If you are worried about a cool and lousy March to rub in a lousy winter then I wouldn't be worried.  I think we are going to 2016 or 2017 our Spring and have a pretty mild one and El-Nino's quick exit to a Nina state will help out with that.   Also the MJO does lose some of its influence as we head into Spring time and may not connect with the rest of the pattern.  Even a favorable phase may not make much of an impact.   

Post Merge: February 09, 2020, 07:22:21 AM
Due to the WPC putting a Moderate Risk out flooding and the SPC having an outlook highlighted decided to make the flooding/severe weather of this week a thread.   
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 09, 2020, 10:00:47 AM
As a owner of a mower service I welcome March turning warm, especially after the first 7-10 days of March. I love all seasons, but I never turn down a good snow even in middle late march even though they rarely happen. Hate late season cold with nothing to show for it, this will be a typical Tennessee winter if the very end of the month and first of march has another round of cold and a snow chance. Any long duration winter is pretty much out the window at this point, and while I am good with spring coming early I would not be one bit surprised if we don't have at least 1 more minor event like this past week or even a bigger one for some folks. It's staying power may not be long, but there is still time for winter to throw a jab or 2. One more good snow at the end of Feb or early March and then spring come roaring in, that is my favorite scenario. But it's weather, it makes up it's own mind. ::blowtorch:: ::cold:: ::rain:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 09, 2020, 12:55:56 PM
As a owner of a mower service I welcome March turning warm, especially after the first 7-10 days of March. I love all seasons, but I never turn down a good snow even in middle late march even though they rarely happen. Hate late season cold with nothing to show for it, this will be a typical Tennessee winter if the very end of the month and first of march has another round of cold and a snow chance. Any long duration winter is pretty much out the window at this point, and while I am good with spring coming early I would not be one bit surprised if we don't have at least 1 more minor event like this past week or even a bigger one for some folks. It's staying power may not be long, but there is still time for winter to throw a jab or 2. One more good snow at the end of Feb or early March and then spring come roaring in, that is my favorite scenario. But it's weather, it makes up it's own mind. ::blowtorch:: ::cold:: ::rain:: ::snowman::
your business is going to thrive this season snowman . Che Ching Che Ching....
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 09, 2020, 01:28:32 PM
On this date in 1994 the ice storm begins. From OHX:
Quote
On February 9, 1994...
A major winter weather event strikes the mid state. Temperature at Nashville at midnight is 70 degrees, but a strong cold front sweeps through, with temperatures falling throughout the day. By noon, snow begins as the temperature falls to 32 degrees, and changes to freezing rain by evening. At midnight, the temperature is 23 degrees. By the following morning, the ground is covered by an inch of snow and ice.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: bugalou on February 09, 2020, 01:45:30 PM
This pattern is stuck.  The only difference is that the EPO goes + during the last week of the month and the PNA goes neutral.  That may change us from warm to very wet to warm and perhaps not as wet as we head to March.   

If you are worried about a cool and lousy March to rub in a lousy winter then I wouldn't be worried.  I think we are going to 2016 or 2017 our Spring and have a pretty mild one and El-Nino's quick exit to a Nina state will help out with that.   Also the MJO does lose some of its influence as we head into Spring time and may not connect with the rest of the pattern.  Even a favorable phase may not make much of an impact.   

Post Merge: February 09, 2020, 07:22:21 AM
Due to the WPC putting a Moderate Risk out flooding and the SPC having an outlook highlighted decided to make the flooding/severe weather of this week a thread.

As I have said before I will trade a crap winter for a cool and rainy summer.  If the wet pattern sticks - good.  If a winter pattern wants to finally flip and occur in June or July, even better.  I always love those strong summer cold fronts that knock the temps down here into the 80s with no humidity to speak of.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 09, 2020, 01:47:29 PM
As I have said before I will trade a crap winter for a cool and rainy summer.  If the wet pattern sticks - good.  If a winter pattern wants to finally flip and occur in June or July, even better.
cool June and July in tennessee lol. Wishful thinking 🤔
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on February 09, 2020, 01:55:08 PM
July has actually not been that bad around these parts here recently.  I would take a July 2018 or 2019 and be okay with that considering we are in the South.  Last two years August and September ended up being warmer than July.


We do have a sudden change to a La-Nina coming this summer meaning that we are likely in for a hot one and we will probably dry out quite a bit by early Fall.  This also means that Hurricane Season will likely mean business this year but we may have a stout SE Ridge so we may be protected.  Our friends in Mexico, Bermuda, or Central America not so much.     
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: bugalou on February 09, 2020, 01:58:28 PM
July has actually not been that bad around these parts here recently.  I would take a July 2018 or 2019 and be okay with that considering we are in the South.  Last two years August and September ended up being warmer than July.


We do have a sudden change to a La-Nina coming this summer meaning that we are likely in for a hot one and we will probably dry out quite a bit by early Fall.  This also means that Hurricane Season will likely mean business this year but we may have a stout SE Ridge so we may be protected.  Our friends in Mexico, Bermuda, or Central America not so much.   

Same for the west side of the state.  Last summer we really only had about a week of extreme heat and the average level heat lasted a little longer into the fall this year.  Other than that it was not bad with lots of rain up until about September when it dried out for a while, but thats typical.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 09, 2020, 02:17:52 PM
yeah with incoming nina. should go back to a typical hot humid summer around here... be some good swimming weather this summer in the pool
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 09, 2020, 04:46:47 PM
The last few summers haven't been bad at all, a few super hot days but not too many overall. And lots of rain. I will take that all day. But this year I could see late summer having a hot and dry spell, hopefully we will be able to sneak in a few afternoon rains in to keep things from getting too dry. ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 09, 2020, 06:46:13 PM
The only really bad summers we had in the past decade were '12 and '16
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on February 10, 2020, 07:11:28 AM
Day 3 (Wednesday) severe risk:

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0830.gif)


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2020, 07:29:27 AM
If you had to choose,

1) 90+ degrees and sunny

or

2) 55 degrees and rain

Give me 2 all day everyday. I hate the heat.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: wfrogge on February 10, 2020, 07:52:06 AM
If you had to choose,

1) 90+ degrees and sunny

or

2) 55 degrees and rain

Give me 2 all day everyday. I hate the heat.


Move to Seattle ;)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 10, 2020, 08:20:05 AM
Guess everyone is made different... give me heat plus humidity any day of the week..
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Greyhound on February 10, 2020, 08:47:45 AM
Guess everyone is made different... give me heat plus humidity any day of the week..

Right there with you Bruce.  Below 70 is winter to me.  HATE the cold
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Crockett on February 10, 2020, 09:13:42 AM
If you had to choose,

1) 90+ degrees and sunny

or

2) 55 degrees and rain

Give me 2 all day everyday. I hate the heat.

That's gross.  ::shaking_finger::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: TNHunter on February 10, 2020, 09:49:16 AM
Give me heat.  I am an outdoors type person who can't stand being cooped up inside for more than about a day at a time.  55 and rain just plain sucks.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 10, 2020, 11:00:46 AM
If you had to choose,

1) 90+ degrees and sunny

or

2) 55 degrees and rain

Give me 2 all day everyday. I hate the heat.

You'd love Denmark.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2020, 11:12:43 AM
Guess everyone is made different... give me heat plus humidity any day of the week..

Yep, give me snow skiing over the beach any day. From July through September, I'm just miserable. I'm definitely made for the colder climate.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 10, 2020, 11:58:33 AM
I like experiencing all four seasons. It makes you look forward to the next one. The beach is awful, but so is long periods of 40s and 50s with rain.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 10, 2020, 12:16:00 PM
Well letís just hope itís not another cold rainy spring.  Watch pattern change right in time for spring. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 10, 2020, 12:20:56 PM
I like both snow and the beach, but I would pick snow and mountains if I had to choose
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: bugalou on February 10, 2020, 12:52:58 PM
Some of you folks claiming to like the heat and humidity should come to the west side of the state in August and prove it to me.   ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 10, 2020, 01:12:44 PM
Some of you folks claiming to like the heat and humidity should come to the west side of the state in August and prove it to me.   ::rofl::
i am here... 😝
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Crockett on February 10, 2020, 02:12:09 PM
Some of you folks claiming to like the heat and humidity should come to the west side of the state in August and prove it to me.   ::rofl::

I don't think anyone in their right mind likes endless heat and humidity. I think the argument is that if it is an either/or proposition, hot and humid (and dry) beats the heck out of 50s and rain.

I enjoy snow and cold, in moderation. And I also enjoy heat and humidity in moderation. I've said it before, but I like having a few days each summer where it's just flat-out hot and there's nothing to do but lay around a water source with something cold to drink. Unfortunately for those of you to the west, for it to be a nice 95 degrees here on the Cumberland Plateau, it has to feel like the bowels of **** in West Tennessee...so sorry, but not sorry.  ;D
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: StormNine on February 10, 2020, 05:35:24 PM
I realized especially last September-Early October with our high 90s and limited humidity that it is the humidity that is my enemy more so than the heat.  I didn't find the weather enjoyable but without the humidity, I realized that I could tolerate or at least get used to it.   Versus the heat of the Summer of 2016 where you had in my part of the world a 93-95 degree reading with dewpoints in the 75-80 range.  That was just absolutely miserable and made any outdoor activity downright dreadful. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: wfrogge on February 10, 2020, 07:06:40 PM
Some of you folks claiming to like the heat and humidity should come to the west side of the state in August and prove it to me.   ::rofl::

I have EIA and used to have issues when racing bikes in 55 degree temps but had zero issues when it was 100 degrees with high humidity. Now that I play golf I would take 100 degrees and humidity 10 times out of 10 over 55 and rain. The ball isn't going anywhere right now
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 10, 2020, 08:18:49 PM
Supposed to be 20 here Thursday morning. I will be able to ice skate from here to Georgia.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mempho on February 11, 2020, 04:41:40 AM
To actually hear that some people like the heat almost makes me angry.  I mean, the summers here are often almost wall-to-wall suffering to me.  Also, unlike the winters, there are usually few breaks.



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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 11, 2020, 05:44:11 AM
If you had to choose,

1) 90+ degrees and sunny

or

2) 55 degrees and rain

Give me 2 all day everyday. I hate the heat.
You can add 37 and rain to your poll. Donít forget the 15 mph north wind.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 11, 2020, 06:30:11 AM
90+ , The cold and damp hurts too much.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 11, 2020, 08:30:18 AM
the humidity is the issue in the southeast.....I remember the heat wave of 2012 very well as I was in a fireworks tent for that week and temps were around 110 every day but obviously hardly any humidity....

It was MUCH more comfortable than 85 degree temp and a 70 degree dewpoint :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 11, 2020, 08:43:34 AM
Long range prognosticators predict the the AO, NAO, and EPO will remain positive through the end of February.  Adios, winter.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2020, 08:59:28 AM
Long range prognosticators predict the the AO, NAO, and EPO will remain positive through the end of February.  Adios, winter.

(https://cdn.obsidianportal.com/assets/49133/pour-one-out.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 11, 2020, 09:03:51 AM
The winter of November 2019, you will be missed.

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 11, 2020, 09:30:55 AM
Long range prognosticators predict the the AO, NAO, and EPO will remain positive through the end of February.  Adios, winter.

I think we all knew that was coming when December and January went by with highs in the 50's and 60's most days without a real threat of any arctic invasion :(
Title: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 11, 2020, 09:41:40 AM
Meanwhile...06z GFS drops 11+ inches...of rain on Memphis next 8-9 days. Sheesh. I think weíve had close to that in East Tn last 8-9 days.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 11, 2020, 10:08:48 AM
Long range prognosticators predict the the AO, NAO, and EPO will remain positive through the end of February.  Adios, winter.

At this point, I think that's for the best. The plants are already making plans for an early spring. Everything I see around Nashville is running about two weeks ahead of schedule, and I fear a hard freeze. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 11, 2020, 10:38:52 AM
At this point, I think that's for the best. The plants are already making plans for an early spring. Everything I see around Nashville is running about two weeks ahead of schedule, and I fear a hard freeze.

I even saw a Bradford Pear already beginning to actually flower BEFORE valentines day!!!
If that doesn't signify an uneventful winter then idk what does lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 11, 2020, 10:45:48 AM
12 gfs ol man winter says I have a storm left in the tank. Just inside 200 hours pretty much a statewide event. What could go wrong? ::rofl::On the other hand maybe it will turn out to be right. It would be a nice way to cap off this overall bad winter and head into spring. Who knows, I'm just here for where the ride takes us to the end of the month. ::fingerscrossed:: ::guitar:: ::rain:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 11, 2020, 11:23:27 AM
12 gfs ol man winter says I have a storm left in the tank. Just inside 200 hours pretty much a statewide event. What could go wrong? ::rofl::On the other hand maybe it will turn out to be right. It would be a nice way to cap off this overall bad winter and head into spring. Who knows, I'm just here for where the ride takes us to the end of the month. ::fingerscrossed:: ::guitar:: ::rain:: ::snowman::
lets see what dr No has to say 12z time lol

Post Merge: February 11, 2020, 11:44:49 AM
Long range prognosticators predict the the AO, NAO, and EPO will remain positive through the end of February.  Adios, winter.
yeah. This winter really didnít even have a chance to be honest ... if next winter is another El NiŮo .. I will hibernate for 3 months lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 11, 2020, 11:58:36 AM
12 gfs ol man winter says I have a storm left in the tank. Just inside 200 hours pretty much a statewide event. What could go wrong? ::rofl::On the other hand maybe it will turn out to be right. It would be a nice way to cap off this overall bad winter and head into spring. Who knows, I'm just here for where the ride takes us to the end of the month. ::fingerscrossed:: ::guitar:: ::rain:: ::snowman::


I saw that. If it stays there for a few days something might be in the works. I am sure it will be gone by tomorrow


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 11, 2020, 12:23:41 PM
Ok. Why not. At least itís something to fantasize about. No way this gives the entire state a nice Winter Wonderland.

But...12z GFS FTW. 10 Day Accumulation.
Enjoy. Itís guaranteed to be gone on 18z run.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200211/eedfbe0067bb7888459361dda13b18c5.jpg)


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 11, 2020, 12:31:50 PM
Ok. Why not. At least itís something to fantasize about. No way this gives the entire state a nice Winter Wonderland.

But...12z GFS FTW. 10 Day Accumulation.
Enjoy. Itís guaranteed to be gone on 18z run.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200211/eedfbe0067bb7888459361dda13b18c5.jpg)


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would be lovely lol

Whats sad is we have had NOTHING but moisture for 6 weeks and 1.5 inches of snow to show for it :(Ö..one of these days we are going to get a REAL gulf low with cold air in place again like we used to and have a widespread 4-6 event.
 
We are having to get all excited over .5 to 1 inch and that stinks LOL. But at least we did get a little something this year
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 11, 2020, 01:07:57 PM
Long range prognosticators predict the the AO, NAO, and EPO will remain positive through the end of February.  Adios, winter.


Well I put down fertilizer on yard and is turning green quickly.  So many weeds from the rain and warmer temps.  My yard never really went dormant this winter.  Will be mowing soon.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 11, 2020, 01:55:44 PM
would be lovely lol

Whats sad is we have had NOTHING but moisture for 6 weeks and 1.5 inches of snow to show for it :(Ö..one of these days we are going to get a REAL gulf low with cold air in place again like we used to and have a widespread 4-6 event.
 
We are having to get all excited over .5 to 1 inch and that stinks LOL. But at least we did get a little something this year
4 to 6 inch snow? Lol. True gulf slp with cold artic air in place is good for 8 to 12 inches man. Like they say in the gym. Go big or go home

Post Merge: February 11, 2020, 02:01:19 PM
The same time frame gfs has us getting snow... the 12z eurogives us a severe setup lol... go figure . Wonder which one is correct ? Lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 11, 2020, 03:04:02 PM
4 to 6 inch snow? Lol. True gulf slp with cold artic air in place is good for 8 to 12 inches man. Like they say in the gym. Go big or go home


lol bruce I have only seen one or two widespread 6-12 in this state and that was 2010...

4-6 ( few pockets of 8+)  used to be a common gulf low scenario statewide back in the good ole days :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2020, 03:44:04 PM
It would be interesting to see the nighttime temp departures for DJM at BNA. We've probably set a record low for fewest number of nights in the teens this winter. A truly remarkable warm winter that I hope to never see again.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 11, 2020, 03:48:34 PM
4 to 6 inch snow? Lol. True gulf slp with cold artic air in place is good for 8 to 12 inches man. Like they say in the gym. Go big or go home

Post Merge: February 11, 2020, 02:01:19 PM
The same time frame gfs has us getting snow... the 12z eurogives us a severe setup lol... go figure . Wonder which one is correct ? Lol
More than likely, neither. But the time frame bears watching. More than likely it's a split the difference 50 degree rain, but it's weather nobody knows. ::popcorn::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 11, 2020, 04:12:31 PM
Ok. Why not. At least itís something to fantasize about. No way this gives the entire state a nice Winter Wonderland.

But...12z GFS FTW. 10 Day Accumulation.
Enjoy. Itís guaranteed to be gone on 18z run.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200211/eedfbe0067bb7888459361dda13b18c5.jpg)


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Gracious.  On the dim side, there couldn't be any more difference between the GooFuS and the Euro if they tried. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 11, 2020, 04:30:11 PM
More than likely, neither. But the time frame bears watching. More than likely it's a split the difference 50 degree rain, but it's weather nobody knows. ::popcorn::

Spot on.  I would bet some good money spring is going to be cool/cold and wet in the non frozen dept.

Post Merge: February 11, 2020, 04:31:23 PM
Anything past 5-6 days on models is fantasy.  To think used to be 10 days or more were fantasy.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 11, 2020, 04:41:02 PM

Anything past 5-6 days on models is fantasy.  To think used to be 10 days or more were fantasy.
[/quote]

all right somebody is on my side now too lol....anything past 5 days now is nothing more than wish-casting, models have very much declined in the past 2 years. Almost every forecasted arctic outbreak in the past 2 years seen in the 7-10 day forecasts turn into mid 40's for highs and upper twenties for
lows(just average winter temps)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: wfrogge on February 11, 2020, 08:32:32 PM
Spot on.  I would bet some good money spring is going to be cool/cold and wet in the non frozen dept.

Post Merge: February 11, 2020, 04:31:23 PM
Anything past 5-6 days on models is fantasy.  To think used to be 10 days or more were fantasy.

Spring is looking normal to warm for us.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 11, 2020, 08:48:18 PM
Spring is looking normal to warm for us.
thank god all signs pointing to a normal spring finally for a change this year
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 11, 2020, 09:05:35 PM
Spring is looking normal to warm for us.

Maybe and maybe not.  I am reading where itís not going to be a warm spring.  As I said above anything is a guess right now.  No one thought we would have another winter like last year.  Also the last several Marches have been colder than December and colder than normal.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 11, 2020, 09:09:59 PM
Maybe and maybe not.  I am reading where itís not going to be a warm spring.  As I said above anything is a guess right now.  No one thought we would have another winter like last year.  Also the last several Marches have been colder than December and colder than normal.
not sure weíre u reading. With La NiŮa building in spring going be warm . 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: TNHunter on February 11, 2020, 09:11:09 PM
Yea March and even April have gone down the toilet the past few years it seems. In Tennessee we have two seasons now, Summer and a cool winter lol. Seem to have lost our transition season of fall and spring.

Post Merge: February 11, 2020, 09:12:46 PM
not sure weíre u reading. With La NiŮa building in spring going be warm .

Bruce I hope you are right, however we canít get the weather right a week out nonetheless 4-6 weeks out
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 12, 2020, 07:09:34 AM
There is still something to keep an eye on next week. Also the 0z Euro came in a lot colder.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 12, 2020, 07:26:34 AM
I even saw a Bradford Pear already beginning to actually flower BEFORE valentines day!!!
If that doesn't signify an uneventful winter then idk what does lol
That's actually normal in this corner of the state. We had bradfords and cherry trees in full bloom covered in snow on Saturday.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 12, 2020, 11:02:32 AM
not sure weíre u reading. With La NiŮa building in spring going be warm .

Huge kelvin wave coming will almost certainly ensure El NiŮo conditions to continue. That might screw up the eventual mild to moderate La NiŮa forecast for fall and winter. Honestly- I would welcome a mild or moderate NiŮa to mix up the pacific a bit. The warm anomalies have been present since the super El NiŮo in 2016- with the exception of 17-18.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 12, 2020, 12:58:15 PM
Huge kelvin wave coming will almost certainly ensure El NiŮo conditions to continue. That might screw up the eventual mild to moderate La NiŮa forecast for fall and winter. Honestly- I would welcome a mild or moderate NiŮa to mix up the pacific a bit. The warm anomalies have been present since the super El NiŮo in 2016- with the exception of 17-18.

Yes looks like wet cooler conditions to continue.  Who knows because seems daily the long range models change.  One thing that is a main driver lately of pattern is the MJO.  Seems one is best to forecast by it first than the other teleconnections
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 12, 2020, 01:43:38 PM
The constant rain really has me down lately.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 12, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
The constant rain really has me down lately.
I'm worried

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 12, 2020, 02:30:40 PM
well as usual the last few yeas, any significant severe threat will be just south of the state line :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 12, 2020, 02:36:25 PM
well as usual the last few yeas, any significant severe threat will be just south of the state line :)
who says?....
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 12, 2020, 03:48:18 PM
well as usual the last few yeas, any significant severe threat will be just south of the state line :)

All it takes is a EF0/EF1 tornado to ruin an otherwise perfect day.

(http://imageshack.com/a/img923/8935/9KY80l.jpg)

Ask this guy.  That's what remains of a 30 x 30 barn that was relocated 50 yards by an EF0 just N of Centertown (Warren Co). 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 12, 2020, 03:59:52 PM
who says?....

the spc says bruce lol....we can't wish it to be a widespread event, just saying the odds are better below the tn state line for more widespread
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 12, 2020, 04:29:45 PM
All it takes is a EF0/EF1 tornado to ruin an otherwise perfect day.

(http://imageshack.com/a/img923/8935/9KY80l.jpg)

Ask this guy.  That's what remains of a 30 x 30 barn that was relocated 50 yards by an EF0 just N of Centertown (Warren Co).

Was that today?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 12, 2020, 04:54:00 PM
that line has really blown up right when I am heading into it after work
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 12, 2020, 05:10:33 PM
the spc says bruce lol....we can't wish it to be a widespread event, just saying the odds are better below the tn state line for more widespread
i miss understood u sorry , thought you were speaking about this coming spring lol.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Jilly on February 12, 2020, 06:46:10 PM
Sparta TN newspaper this week.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQnO0OPXUAAXHOk.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on February 13, 2020, 07:08:08 AM
Itís sure going to feel like winter the next two days.

That Hot Chocolate 5K Iím doing on Saturday morning is going to be brutal at the 20 degree forecast low. ::cold::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 13, 2020, 07:18:59 AM
0z Euro. This would suck . There are a few members of the EPS that plaster Tennessee. The CMC is very similar.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 13, 2020, 07:29:34 AM
0z Euro. This would suck . There are a few members of the EPS that plaster Tennessee. The CMC is very similar.

(Attachment Link)
because the euro forms another slp off the atlantic coast... could be correct

Post Merge: February 13, 2020, 10:16:11 AM
I see u 12z gfs...
Title: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 13, 2020, 11:02:35 AM
12z GFS; Overrunning precip with shallow cold air looking more and more likely overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Itís mostly a West of the plateau event although East gets some with elevation. Itís more than nuisance but not a knock out punch.

Worth noting itís not on the CMC as frozen at all with slightly warmer temps.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 13, 2020, 11:07:48 AM
12z GFS; Overrunning precip with shallow cold air looking more and more likely overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Itís mostly a West of the plateau event although East gets some with elevation. Itís more than nuisance but not a knock out punch.

Worth noting itís not on the CMC as frozen at all with slightly warmer temps.
looks like a solid 1 to 2 inch event with perhaps touch of icing
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 13, 2020, 11:26:02 AM
0z Euro is still a hard no.  See if the 12z does something different.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 13, 2020, 11:42:39 AM
On this date in 1960 Nashville received 5.4" of snow. This snowfall would be the beginning of one of the snowiest periods in TN history. Over the next five weeks Nashville would go on to total 31.1" of snow. Knoxville totaled a whopping 39.9" and Memphis even got in on the act with 14" total for the five week period. Hard to imagine.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 13, 2020, 11:43:10 AM
0z Euro is still a hard no.  See if the 12z does something different.

Euro> UKMET>CMC>GFS
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 13, 2020, 12:28:41 PM
On this date in 1960 Nashville received 5.4" of snow. This snowfall would be the beginning of one of the snowiest periods in TN history. Over the next five weeks Nashville would go on to total 31.1" of snow. Knoxville totaled a whopping 39.9" and Memphis even got in on the act with 14" total for the five week period. Hard to imagine.  ::snowman::

March 1-3 was a major ice storm state wide, too.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 13, 2020, 12:34:48 PM
Well if to be believed by models the MJO is heading to cold phases for us.  Just in time for spring to be delayed.  Cold rains and spring?  Say itís not so again. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Scot on February 13, 2020, 12:36:46 PM
A little northwest trend and we would be in the sweet spot on the 12z Euro by my untrained eye.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 13, 2020, 12:38:58 PM
Hmmm Euro

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 13, 2020, 12:39:39 PM
A little northwest trend and we would be in the sweet spot on the 12z Euro by my untrained eye.
yeah. It wonít take much either ... we got this where we want it this far out...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 13, 2020, 12:40:45 PM
Next frame

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 13, 2020, 12:43:47 PM
Euro pops a major snowstorm- just south of Tennessee mid week. Should be interesting to see if that can go north.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 13, 2020, 12:46:07 PM
Euro pops a major snowstorm- just south of Tennessee mid week. Should be interesting to see if that can go north.
yes curt. Very close to a bomb 💣 for us. Fingers crossed
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: joemomma on February 13, 2020, 12:55:15 PM
The temp sure did drop.  I went out at lunch and it's downright chilly!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 13, 2020, 01:07:07 PM
Euro pops a major snowstorm- just south of Tennessee mid week. Should be interesting to see if that can go north.
Looking at ďmodel trendĒ in Pivotal Weather, Euro is trending towards more of a winter storm (-hr168 on 12z run today).


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 13, 2020, 01:44:01 PM
A little northwest trend and we would be in the sweet spot on the 12z Euro by my untrained eye.

NW trend only occurs when we're shown as snow this far out. If it's shown south of here this far out, put money on the NW trend not happening and watching Birmingham to Atlanta to Charlotte getting hammered.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 13, 2020, 01:49:24 PM
Since itís 7 days out...you can count 100% on that changing.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 13, 2020, 01:57:56 PM
Euro pops a major snowstorm- just south of Tennessee mid week. Should be interesting to see if that can go north.

Queue the meltdown at other southern-based weather forums in 3.....2.....
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 13, 2020, 02:29:11 PM
I have seen systems go south of us like that before and it can happen. But still at 7-8 days out it being shown south of us is not a bad position to be in. That doesn't mean we score for sure, but at this point in the season I would rather it be just to our south that right on us 7-8 days out. More times than none it seems like there is a north or northwest movement, the next few days should be interesting watching to see how it unfolds. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Woodvegas on February 13, 2020, 04:32:48 PM
There is some potential at the end of next week. Iím upgrading from SNOW DEFCON 5 to 4.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 13, 2020, 04:35:07 PM
NW trend only occurs when we're shown as snow this far out. If it's shown south of here this far out, put money on the NW trend not happening and watching Birmingham to Atlanta to Charlotte getting hammered.

could not have said it better myself....when we need nw trend, it don't happen and north central Bama gets hammered, happened at least 2-3 times in the past 5-6 years

Maybe this year we break that :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 13, 2020, 08:28:57 PM
could not have said it better myself....when we need nw trend, it don't happen and north central Bama gets hammered, happened at least 2-3 times in the past 5-6 years

Maybe this year we break that :)

Dude, check your PMs.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clint on February 13, 2020, 11:13:25 PM
Looks like the system next week is coming in little more robust on the 0Z GFS than the 18Z.

(https://i.imgur.com/7EpmIFM.png)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 13, 2020, 11:42:20 PM
Looks like the system next week is coming in little more robust on the 0Z GFS than the 18Z.

(https://i.imgur.com/7EpmIFM.png)
Still -7 days out. Need it to lurk around us until 2-3 days out and then strengthen and move NW a tad. I got a feeling Euro about to drop a clown map.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 14, 2020, 05:44:19 AM
6z gfs says what snow? Lol. It is the 6z ...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 14, 2020, 07:03:26 AM
0z Euro wants to welcome all of us to Suppression City, where the grass is green and the weather is boring.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 14, 2020, 07:16:44 AM
0z Euro wants to welcome all of us to Suppression City, where the grass is green and the weather is boring.
The last four runs of Euro have been nothing, blizzard in Carolinas , major overrunning in the south and back to nothing. Crazy.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 14, 2020, 07:43:29 AM
Itís sure going to feel like winter the next two days.

That Hot Chocolate 5K Iím doing on Saturday morning is going to be brutal at the 20 degree forecast low. ::cold::


My son and I will be running also!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 14, 2020, 07:48:47 AM
Flurries in Dickson this morning.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on February 14, 2020, 08:18:18 AM
Yep- saw some light flakes flying over this way too.

We'll have to take what we can get.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 14, 2020, 08:48:14 AM
Some fluffy flurries here as well this morning. ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 14, 2020, 08:50:38 AM
Ditto. Very glittery in the sunlight.


Does anyone else foresee winter wx next week?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 14, 2020, 08:53:47 AM
Ditto. Very glittery in the sunlight.


Does anyone else foresee winter wx next week?
the trends on models hasnít been in our favor...  I Say that much
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 14, 2020, 08:54:28 AM
Ditto. Very glittery in the sunlight.


Does anyone else foresee winter wx next week?

(https://media.giphy.com/media/xUPGcoj2LKAkDOSahG/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 14, 2020, 08:58:10 AM
Next weekend weíre in Birmingham for first soccer tournament of year.  50-60 and sunny will be just perfect!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Greyhound on February 14, 2020, 09:50:42 AM
0z Euro wants to welcome all of us to Suppression City, where the grass is green and the weather is boring.

In other words....welcome back to reality
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 14, 2020, 10:18:08 AM
In other words....welcome back to reality

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWaX9OiDLKc

Post Merge: February 14, 2020, 01:20:25 PM
That 12z Euro.  LOL.  After a singular rain event early next week, there is nothing but a 1020mb HP sitting right over the southeast.  Couple brisk nights, but otherwise seasonal.  We've suffered with the summer doldrums, now we wither with the winter doldrums.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 14, 2020, 04:18:45 PM
18z GFS buries Central GA and Central SC next Thursday. ~6" in GA and around 1FT in SC  ::faint::  ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 14, 2020, 04:21:41 PM
18z GFS buries Central GA and Central SC next Thursday. ~6" in GA and around 1FT in SC  ::faint::  ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bagoverhead::
Right where we want it
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 14, 2020, 04:31:07 PM
Right where we want it

I have a feeling they'll be disappointed, too. Suppression may win.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 14, 2020, 04:45:16 PM
I have a feeling they'll be disappointed, too. Suppression may win.

I'll board any of these trains to the winter weather fantasy land, IYKWIM
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: bugalou on February 14, 2020, 05:28:48 PM
I mean, it's at least nice to have some fantasy material in the long range.  That's an improvement over the status quo the past several winter months.  :)  ::fingerscrossed::

...
...

 ::cliff::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 14, 2020, 06:01:52 PM
18z GFS buries Central GA and Central SC next Thursday. ~6" in GA and around 1FT in SC  ::faint::  ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bagoverhead::
talking about taking a gut shot .that would be a complete low blow there, be a tough way to end a crappy winter for us... >:D

Post Merge: February 14, 2020, 06:20:58 PM
while we cry about missing the winter storm on the 18zgfs, I will drool over another one in fantasy land. ;)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 14, 2020, 07:30:40 PM
talking about taking a gut shot .that would be a complete low blow there, be a tough way to end a crappy winter for us... >:D

Post Merge: February 14, 2020, 06:20:58 PM
while we cry about missing the winter storm on the 18zgfs, I will drool over another one in fantasy land. ;)
I assumed you saw that. Two runs in a row on GFS. A cutter that is literally a hurricane on land.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 14, 2020, 07:45:00 PM
I assumed you saw that. Two runs in a row on GFS. A cutter that is literally a hurricane on land.
yes I did... ::rofl:: insane isn't it?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 14, 2020, 08:40:54 PM
Euro doesnt even have the storm.  Until it does, you can count it out.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 15, 2020, 08:25:24 AM
I know I know I know, I will catch lot of negativity for this. But the gfs has been very consistent of showing a big time system . And last nights 0z euro is starting to show big trough digging in the four corners late frame ... hey letís just sit tight n watch things how they play out... it could be a big time severe setup, big time winter storm or just a plain ugly heavy flooding rain setup . Beside, weather is very boring for now ... but pretty amazing the consistency gfs been showing this ... everyone have a great weekend .😎
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 15, 2020, 10:52:08 AM
GFS moving towards the Euro.  This should come as a surprise to no one.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: bugalou on February 15, 2020, 11:28:23 AM
GFS moving towards the Euro.  This should come as a surprise to no one.

Eric I see you have joined team jaded.  Welcome!  ;D
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 15, 2020, 12:59:09 PM
Eric I see you have joined team jaded.  Welcome!  ;D

Not sure I ever left.  Until the Euro showed *something* the GFS was toast.  I'll gladly eat those words if the thing flip turns upside down.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 15, 2020, 01:17:35 PM
I know I know I know, I will catch lot of negativity for this. But the gfs has been very consistent of showing a big time system . And last nights 0z euro is starting to show big trough digging in the four corners late frame ... hey letís just sit tight n watch things how they play out... it could be a big time severe setup, big time winter storm or just a plain ugly heavy flooding rain setup . Beside, weather is very boring for now ... but pretty amazing the consistency gfs been showing this ... everyone have a great weekend .😎
12z models... are steady as she goes.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 15, 2020, 06:36:04 PM
What a squandered opportunity


[attachimg=1]


Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 16, 2020, 08:48:01 AM
What a squandered opportunity


(Attachment Link)
Looking at model trend loops, both the GFS and Euro have trended a tad north with precipitation last few runs. So close to something big. But, also 4-5 days out still too. Iím not gonna throw the towel in on this just yet. Considering how off models have been this winter, this could jog north last minute.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 16, 2020, 08:57:32 AM
I am having a awful hard time of restraining myself on these model runs going on. I leave it like that for now. ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 16, 2020, 09:16:39 AM
She's a trending, but I will stop there as well. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2020, 11:42:06 AM
Looking at model trend loops, both the GFS and Euro have trended a tad north with precipitation last few runs. So close to something big. But, also 4-5 days out still too. Iím not gonna throw the towel in on this just yet. Considering how off models have been this winter, this could jog north last minute.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Absolutely. The near 2" I received last week did not appear until 3 days in advance.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 16, 2020, 01:43:15 PM
But also notice the temps are trending warmer in actual forecast this coming week.  Models have been off with to cold anything past 5 days to only trend warmer 5 days in.  Until Euro says pay attention Iím out.

Footnote is anything that is not within 5 days.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mamMATTus on February 16, 2020, 02:34:31 PM
There's not going to be any wintry precip mid-week. Let it go lol.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 16, 2020, 02:49:52 PM
There's not going to be any wintry precip mid-week. Let it go lol.
Debbie Downer lol


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 16, 2020, 02:51:30 PM
There's not going to be any wintry precip mid-week. Let it go lol.
I'm sure there will be plenty around, just not in Tennessee.

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 16, 2020, 06:04:43 PM
Well donít tell anyone that in the other forum. They got their markers and crayons out and they are determined to make it happen no matter how bleak it looks! 😳😜😂
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2020, 07:24:35 PM
Well donít tell anyone that in the other forum. They got their markers and crayons out and they are determined to make it happen no matter how bleak it looks! 😳😜😂

Noobs.

My go-to is the Sharpie.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2020, 08:47:17 PM
To bad itís the 84hr NAM. Sure looks good.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: lyngo on February 16, 2020, 09:28:07 PM
To bad itís the 84hr NAM. Sure looks good.


(Attachment Link)

1051 High?   ::wow::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 16, 2020, 11:21:52 PM
The 0z gfs gives us a good ole kick in the gonads tonite... strong slp cuts right between Jackson and Nashville and buries Little Rock to St. Louis ...
Title: February 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on February 16, 2020, 11:23:54 PM
I got to hand it to the determination of some of you. I go pull up the NWS forecast and wonder what in the world youíre talking about.

I guess the models keep throwing bones. So, enjoy.

Looks like more rain this week with meh temps... maybe a chance to dry out more later in the week.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 16, 2020, 11:35:19 PM
The 0z gfs gives us a good ole kick in the gonads tonite... strong slp cuts right between Jackson and Nashville and buries Little Rock to St. Louis ...
solid 8 to 12 inches snow from Little Rock Arkansas tonstlouis Missouri  hour 234 blizzard like conditions
Title: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 17, 2020, 06:26:13 AM
Iíve been trying to tell you naysayers that Thursdayís system keeps trending north ever so slightly. Now look at the 0z Euro. For Thursday. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200217/8e45a1f0a0bbf646d29f1d03d9aa8bf7.jpg)


Now the 06z NAM...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200217/c8e3f77e896adadf60bba8e9b95352c8.jpg)


06z GFS (late to the party as usual) is headed towards Euro/NAM...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200217/38ef0d58de8cea1d2d06f4484d485e70.jpg)


We still have 72hrs or so. It may end up flurries or a dusting, or maybe nothing. I know temps are close as well. But itís got potential to at least snow. Considering the ďWinterĒ, Iíd be happy if it snows period. Accumulation or not.



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Title: February 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2020, 07:09:07 AM
solid 8 to 12 inches snow from Little Rock Arkansas tonstlouis Missouri  hour 234 blizzard like conditions

Thanks for giving a timeframe this time. Vague posts about some system- itís not obvious if itís a couple of days out, hour 384 or anytime else in between. Giving an hour on a model run- or a date- actually helps... for those of us not inclined to look up a model run and look it over all the way through.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on February 17, 2020, 07:58:23 AM
While we're all hoping for snow the flooding continues to take its toll on Tennessee.  2 homes have dropped into the Tennessee River in West Tennessee after a landslide: https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/national/homes-collapse-landslide-plunge-into-tennessee-river/IyajkHzbhtmjMIRnn4VH9K/
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2020, 08:08:11 AM
Temps are way too marginal for my liking.  Lowest temp I could find is 35F on the Plateau and most locations are 36-38F.  Y'all keep tryin' to reel her in, though.  I ain't mad at ya.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 17, 2020, 08:21:13 AM
Temps are way too marginal for my liking.  Lowest temp I could find is 35F on the Plateau and most locations are 36-38F.  Y'all keep tryin' to reel her in, though.  I ain't mad at ya.

Considering everyone else  ::cliff:: back in middle of January, I'm not ready to do that. I'm optimistic.  ;D Even if it is for 35 degree flurries.  ::rofl::

Although, I find it hard to believe a mid-Feb 1048-1050 High sitting in Northern Iowa only brings us temps 34-38F.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 17, 2020, 08:41:34 AM
Considering everyone else  ::cliff:: back in middle of January, I'm not ready to do that. I'm optimistic.  ;D Even if it is for 35 degree flurries.  ::rofl::

Although, I find it hard to believe a mid-Feb 1048-1050 High sitting in Northern Iowa only brings us temps 34-38F.
even though its showing 1048 high, these high pressures r not producing the deep cold air they would normally do because of the lack of deep snow cover to the north...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2020, 08:49:08 AM
I got to hand it to the determination of some of you. I go pull up the NWS forecast and wonder what in the world youíre talking about.

I guess the models keep throwing bones. So, enjoy.

Looks like more rain this week with meh temps... maybe a chance to dry out more later in the week.

LOL I do the same thing sometimes, but nothing wrong with wishcasting I guess :). sometimes it comes true
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2020, 10:16:16 AM
12z GFS cuts wayyyyy back on the snow totals across I-40 W of Little Rock.  So much so, that AR gets shut out.  Not that we were talking about a huge event anyway.

12z NAM12 gives a nice little event to the CAD areas of GA/NC/SC.  I don't buy it though.  Thermals look screwed up.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2020, 11:16:33 AM
what is everybody talking about possible snow this week....I just don't see it?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: wfrogge on February 17, 2020, 12:21:39 PM
what is everybody talking about possible snow this week....I just don't see it?

Fantasy lovers are..... sorry folks.


Killdeer birds are out in force today. I am outdoors a lot playing golf year round and donít remember these birds returning so early in the season before.  Good thing because mosquitos are out around Memphis
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 17, 2020, 12:21:54 PM
what is everybody talking about possible snow this week....I just don't see it?
i was getting hyped up bout another type system slightly down the road . Lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Thundersnow on February 17, 2020, 12:26:09 PM
Itís actually rather pleasant outside today.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 17, 2020, 12:38:45 PM
what is everybody talking about possible snow this week....I just don't see it?
Some people are conflating ďsnowĒ with ďmajor winter stormĒ. Also, the 12z Euro still shows a little wintry precipitation. Fyi, not all of us on here live in middle or west Tn.

If itís flyin, itís ďsnowĒ. Doesnít have to stick. Although, we all want accumulation, given the crappy winter Iím happy if flakes are flying.

Now, the 0z Euro may give me the finger. Lol. But until all models give me the finger, Iím holding out (wishcasting if you will) that flakes will fly Thursday.

We got enough Negative Nancies on here. Iím not adding to it lol.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2020, 12:49:57 PM
Some people are conflating ďsnowĒ with ďmajor winter stormĒ. Also, the 12z Euro still shows a little wintry precipitation. Fyi, not all of us on here live in middle or west Tn.

If itís flyin, itís ďsnowĒ. Doesnít have to stick. Although, we all want accumulation, given the crappy winter Iím happy if flakes are flying.

Now, the 0z Euro may give me the finger. Lol. But until all models give me the finger, Iím holding out (wishcasting if you will) that flakes will fly Thursday.

We got enough Negative Nancies on here. Iím not adding to it lol.


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I see, I guess that's my fault, to ME snow worth talking about is accumulating around 2 inches and above ( which actually happened for me last system :) )

It's been so very long since we had a true widespread gulf low snowstorm I almost forget what they look like and then I remember 2010 and 2011 and remember it can happen :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 17, 2020, 01:05:06 PM
I know the 10 inches we got in December 2018 was a system that did well in northeast Tennessee here in Johnson City but that was a reminder it still can happen but probably not this winter. I think Johnson City might get flurries Thursday or Thursday night but will be the best we can hope for right now


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2020, 02:27:02 PM
i was getting hyped up bout another type system slightly down the road . Lol

I am loving this wx today.  Sign me up for this everyday for some time.

Bruce you are persistent. Surely you are not excited about a system 8-10 days away?  Remember it will change and itís over 3-5 days away.  You should know to not get excited about anything past 3-5 days.  Actually 3 days!
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2020, 03:23:37 PM
We just got NAMíd


[attachimg=1]

Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2020, 03:34:29 PM
We just got NAMíd


(Attachment Link)

that's my type of map...one can dream lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on February 17, 2020, 03:54:51 PM
I just got in from a walk around the neighborhood and saw the first neighbor mowing grass.  My yard will get the same treatment this week.  It's February and we have to cut grass; based on the chaos theory of Tennessee weather expect 10 inches of snow in the middle of spring break next month.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2020, 04:01:54 PM
I'm loving this weather today. It makes up for last week's miserable rain!

Post Merge: February 17, 2020, 04:03:46 PM
We just got NAMíd


(Attachment Link)

Dyer, IF this comes to fruition, you KNOW that'll shift your way! It'll continue to edge north in future runs at the expense of Alabama and Mississippi

Like I said a few days ago, I'll take any train to winter wx fantasy land. I'm frickin' on.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 17, 2020, 04:06:39 PM
I'm loving this weather today. It makes up for last week's miserable rain!

Post Merge: February 17, 2020, 04:03:46 PM
Dyer, IF this comes to fruition, you KNOW that'll shift your way! It'll continue to edge north in future runs at the expense of Alabama and Mississippi

Like I said a few days ago, I'll take any train to winter wx fantasy land. I'm frickin' on.

I Love this weather too!!!  We spent the day out by a friendís house who lives on the Piney River.  The Piney is one of the prettiest rivers in our area.  I wish every day could be like today!  Beautiful!!! 8) 8) 8)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2020, 04:13:26 PM
That 18z NAM12 needs to put down the sake. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 17, 2020, 04:20:23 PM
That 18z NAM12 needs to put down the sake.
Iím telling you. This has been trending North last several runs...ever so slightly. And that 1045+ High be damned, aint producing upper 30s. Iíve been preaching this lol. Weíre DUE a last minute surprise. By last minute i mean <72 hours out. Granted, the NAM is probably too robust. But, itís coming around as is 18z GFS. But, itís always a tad behind. Now watch everything go poof next 24 hours .


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 17, 2020, 04:24:36 PM
Yep, Thursday beginning to look interesting. This look back earlier in winter would have generated several pages of model discussion. We've had a tendency on this forum over the years to either quit paying attention late in the winter, or get so jaded many just give up. I think we are likely to have multiple chances over the next four or five weeks.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2020, 04:29:57 PM
I think it's cause forecast temps are mid 40's during the timeframe, would take a massive forecast bust to create a snow event imo, but we can always hope.

 I am paying attention but from afar lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 17, 2020, 04:59:53 PM
I think it's cause forecast temps are mid 40's during the timeframe, would take a massive forecast bust

NAM has temps in the 33-36 range at noon Thursday, warm biased ICON has them near 40. Yes, it's the NAM at range, so its probably not right. However, we have a weak sliding wave with a well located high pressing in. All I'm saying is there is a chance. Late season is historically the most likely time for surprises.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 17, 2020, 05:04:49 PM
That 18z NAM12 needs to put down the sake.
no, it needs to share... >:D
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 17, 2020, 05:06:03 PM
NAM has temps in the 33-36 range at noon Thursday, warm biased ICON has them near 40. Yes, it's the NAM at range, so its probably not right. However, we have a weak sliding wave with a well located high pressing in. All I'm saying is there is a chance. Late season is historically the most likely time for surprises.
Glad someone is on my side lol


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 17, 2020, 05:07:54 PM
no, it needs to share... >:D
I'm all for sharing!

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 17, 2020, 05:26:45 PM
Glad someone is on my side lol


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You are not alone! Lol I'm not suggesting it's likely. I just always stay on the hunt.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2020, 05:33:36 PM
The gfs should be put down also.  Euro I follow.  When it says pay attention I will and thatís within three days

Post Merge: February 17, 2020, 07:38:11 PM
Well if weeklies are to be believed.  The first 3 weeks of March will be mostly BN. As a whole BN.  Yep Iíd say thatís about right for winter to show up in March.  Why not make March a winter month.  Add to the string of past March.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 17, 2020, 07:55:08 PM
Ugh! So our Spring break might be a winter break? 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: pirates1 on February 17, 2020, 08:32:59 PM
What does BN stand for in the post 2 above,
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2020, 08:35:37 PM
What does BN stand for in the post 2 above,

Below normal, I'm guessing.  With Bruce it could mean anything.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2020, 08:45:58 PM
That 18z NAM12 needs to put down the sake.

Put down the sake? What does that mean
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 17, 2020, 08:49:55 PM
Put down the sake? What does that mean
The sack I'm thinking

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 17, 2020, 08:59:27 PM
The gfs should be put down also.  Euro I follow.  When it says pay attention I will and thatís within three days

Post Merge: February 17, 2020, 07:38:11 PM
Well if weeklies are to be believed.  The first 3 weeks of March will be mostly BN. As a whole BN.  Yep Iíd say thatís about right for winter to show up in March.  Why not make March a winter month.  Add to the string of past March.
thank god weeklies been pretty terrible
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2020, 09:24:39 PM
Put down the sake? What does that mean

Sake.  Maybe I should've wrote it as sake'.  Japanese alcohol.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2020, 10:11:56 PM
What does BN stand for in the post 2 above,

Below Normal

Post Merge: February 17, 2020, 10:14:12 PM
thank god weeklies been pretty terrible

Wonder what the verification scores would be between your severe wx outlooks and the weeklies.  ::pondering:: 

Just messing with you Bruce
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 17, 2020, 10:14:40 PM
MRX starting to take note of the northward trend. Thatís unusual for them this quickly lol. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200218/39e37169817161c5c8d02775705eb65e.jpg)


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Heath22 on February 18, 2020, 12:53:52 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUuhBD7bf5Y

This guy is on board.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Beth on February 18, 2020, 06:20:45 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUuhBD7bf5Y

This guy is on board.

This video must have been made before King Euro said ďHa ha ha, NO!Ē   I sure would be hesitant to be counting on the Nam and GFS for a big snow.  ::pondering::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Scot on February 18, 2020, 08:23:12 AM
I do like where it seems the 12z NAM is headed.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 18, 2020, 08:28:35 AM
I do like where it seems the 12z NAM is headed.
12Z NAM looks like its coming north a bit to give almost the entire state at shot of snow Thursday morning.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 18, 2020, 08:33:26 AM
I do like where it seems the 12z NAM is headed.
tennessee just got nam d ...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 18, 2020, 08:33:39 AM
Full scale namming on the 12Z. Looks like 1-2" for most of the state. More at elevation and leaves out far NW corner and Chatty.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Crockett on February 18, 2020, 08:41:16 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUuhBD7bf5Y

This guy is on board.

That guy.  ;D Not only is he building a video off a single run of a single model, but he's cherry-picking frames from the model that fit his narrative of a "Southern snowstorm." Anything for views, I guess.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 18, 2020, 08:44:50 AM
12z NAM3 is......

......intriguing.  Especially for areas E of I-65.  I could see a scenario where the mountains could see minor accums, maybe some slushy accums on mailboxes and car hoods across the Plateau. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 18, 2020, 10:21:11 AM
No matter what happens in my neck of the woods, if parts of the state receive anything the gfs and nam will have won a bout with the euro. It does happen time to time, and it still may not but the euro does lose every now and then.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 18, 2020, 11:01:05 AM
Waiting on the Euro to say climb aboard. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: EastTNWX on February 18, 2020, 11:03:17 AM
No matter what happens in my neck of the woods, if parts of the state receive anything the gfs and nam will have won a bout with the euro. It does happen time to time, and it still may not but the euro does lose every now and then.

The NAM won the last battle with the snow event last weekend. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2020, 11:16:30 AM
I remember euro screwing up a few events last winter so I don't know what to believe anymore lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 18, 2020, 11:23:04 AM
I remember euro screwing up a few events last winter so I don't know what to believe anymore lol
Half the fun for me is being on the hunt and comparing the models and their changes. Things have picked up in the last week or so. We had some accumulation a little over a week ago and at least a chance for some this Thursday. Also, the long range is looking more and more likely to be below normal as we head into March.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 18, 2020, 11:23:41 AM
Bottom line is this.  Marginal temps at best.  Probably during daytime.  Warm ground.  All to me saying nada.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 18, 2020, 11:28:33 AM
Half the fun for me is being on the hunt and comparing the models and their changes. Things have picked up in the last week or so. We had some accumulation a little over a week ago and at least a chance for some this Thursday. Also, the long range is looking more and more likely to be below normal as we head into March.
below normal in March , wonít cut it much .. below normal in January then we can talk...

Post Merge: February 18, 2020, 11:30:09 AM
Prepare for more cool rains ...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Drifter49 on February 18, 2020, 11:36:11 AM
below normal in March , wonít cut it much .. below normal in January then we can talk...

Post Merge: February 18, 2020, 11:30:09 AM
Prepare for more cool rains ...
Be nice to get another one of those March 2014 sleetfests

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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 18, 2020, 11:37:20 AM
below normal in March , wonít cut it much .. below normal in January then we can talk...

Post Merge: February 18, 2020, 11:30:09 AM
Prepare for more cool rains ...

Come on Bruce, I know your game well, you are not going to bait me into it.  ;)

You know as well as I do, BN in early March can deliver the goods. We've seen it over and over. I'm not saying its going to happen, just that those who want can continue to hunt for it with a reasonable chance it happens.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2020, 11:41:25 AM
Half the fun for me is being on the hunt and comparing the models and their changes. Things have picked up in the last week or so. We had some accumulation a little over a week ago and at least a chance for some this Thursday. Also, the long range is looking more and more likely to be below normal as we head into March.
if nothing else thigs have gotten a bit more active on the winter front at least :), like I say , you just never know which models to trust anymore though LOL

as far as march goes, yes we can sometimes get slammed in march....is it normal and should it be expected...? NO.
Jan and Feb are by far the best chances in this area based on temps.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 18, 2020, 11:43:38 AM
Come on Bruce, I know your game well, you are not going to bait me into it.  ;)

You know as well as I do, BN in early March can deliver the goods. We've seen it over and over. I'm not saying its going to happen, just that those who want can continue to hunt for it with a reasonable chance it happens.
well you got 2008 2015... first come in mind . Course biggie lifetime storm 93 which most missed out on to the east ... pretty much all that stands out to me winter storm wise . Someone help me if Iím missing some more lol

Post Merge: February 18, 2020, 11:44:16 AM
Course there is march 1968 lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 18, 2020, 11:45:26 AM
We got a little snow in Nashville in March 2017
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 18, 2020, 11:48:26 AM
We were a day early on the February 28th 2009 big snow . Close
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2020, 11:50:58 AM
well you got 2008 2015... first come in mind . Course biggie lifetime storm 93 which most missed out on to the east ... pretty much all that stands out to me winter storm wise . Someone help me if Iím missing some more lol

Post Merge: February 18, 2020, 11:44:16 AM
Course there is march 1968 lol

I remember those and one or two also occurred during easter weekend as well, there was another unexpected late march early april event back in I think 04 or 05 , got 3 inches of snow during the night and then it melted the next day by 10 am because it was gonna be 60 degrees that day lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 18, 2020, 11:53:29 AM
I remember those and one or two also occurred during easter weekend as well, there was another unexpected late march early april event back in I think 04 or 05 , got 3 inches of snow during the night and then it melted the next day by 10 am because it was gonna be 60 degrees that day lol
yep... April 2004 never forget , my daughter was on spring break . Snowing like crazy got good slushy 2 half inches here melted same day
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 18, 2020, 11:59:49 AM
The 93 storm in Johnson City stands out for winter storms no matter the time of year. We got 25 inches, had thunder snow, snowdrifts of 6 feet, and almost down to zero even though it was March 12th. I think that is the hardest I have ever seen it snow for several hours. You had visibility of maybe 100 feet. A crazy storm


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: bugalou on February 18, 2020, 12:01:27 PM
below normal in March , wonít cut it much .. below normal in January then we can talk...

Memphis has had some good March storms.  Of course it melts quickly the next day because of the sun angle but the additional heat energy can also mean deeper lows.  I will take a March bowling ball that drops 5 or 6 inches and is melted 48 hours later than nothing at all.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 18, 2020, 12:01:55 PM
March holds many of the largest single snowfall events in the state. I feel better about the next 4 weeks then the last 4 , how about you guys :) Its been a tuff snow year here and out in the far West. Utah, Wyoming and Colorado are doing quite well, the Wasatch and Tetons doing extremely well so far. March will likely present several looks at Winter.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: bugalou on February 18, 2020, 12:06:44 PM
The 93 storm in Johnson City stands out for winter storms no matter the time of year. We got 25 inches, had thunder snow, snowdrifts of 6 feet, and almost down to zero even though it was March 12th. I think that is the hardest I have ever seen it snow for several hours. You had visibility of maybe 100 feet. A crazy storm


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To my point you wouldn't of had the 93 storm of the century at that latitude in January.  The additional heat contributes to a stronger southern jet and more big buckles in the polar jet.  The cold air is around this year its just been bottled up at the pole due to a stable PV. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 18, 2020, 12:07:53 PM
12z Euro not budging from previous 2 runs. Nearly 3 consecutive identical runs. It may be locked on. Basically gives East Tn higher elevations a brief shot of snow. Nothing for Carolinas. Quite different from NAM and GFS. Havenít seen the Canadian or UKMET.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2020, 12:08:18 PM
yep... April 2004 never forget , my daughter was on spring break . Snowing like crazy got good slushy 2 half inches here melted same day

it was pretty late april wasn't it bruceÖ.like around the 10th -20th? I had to go to Memphis that day woke up and it was about 28 degrees and it has snowed hard , pretty sure that is the record for most snow that late in the year...Mid April 3 inches of snow is NUTS this far south...but by 10 am it was already 40 degrees and wet streets, and by noon, it was all gone lol

Post Merge: February 18, 2020, 12:09:32 PM
March holds many of the largest single snowfall events in the state. I feel better about the next 4 weeks then the last 4 , how about you guys :) Its been a tuff snow year here and out in the far West. Utah, Wyoming and Colorado are doing quite well, the Wasatch and Tetons doing extremely well so far. March will likely present several looks at Winter.

my new jersey family have pretty much gotten squat this year too so far....they are used to 20+ every season
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 18, 2020, 12:19:14 PM
it was pretty late april wasn't it bruceÖ.like around the 10th -20th? I had to go to Memphis that day woke up and it was about 28 degrees and it has snowed hard , pretty sure that is the record for most snow that late in the year...Mid April 3 inches of snow is NUTS this far south...but by 10 am it was already 40 degrees and wet streets, and by noon, it was all gone lol

Post Merge: February 18, 2020, 12:09:32 PM
14 th be exact ... i did taxes next day lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: bugalou on February 18, 2020, 12:19:49 PM
Check out the nearly perfect circle the PV is in:

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1229828502268108800?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 18, 2020, 12:27:27 PM
To my point you wouldn't of had the 93 storm of the century at that latitude in January.  The additional heat contributes to a stronger southern jet and more big buckles in the polar jet.  The cold air is around this year its just been bottled up at the pole due to a stable PV.

Totally agree. That was a once in a life time storm. I will probably never see another one like that in Johnson City


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 18, 2020, 01:00:22 PM
Nashville's all time biggest snow came in late March. I remember a snow from march when I was young, it was either 72 or 73. I woke up at 4 in the morning and there was at least 8 inches of heavy wet snow on the ground and all in the trees like I have never seen. It was stuck on everything. It had quit snowing and was lightning off in the distance. I woke up around 7 and there was about 2-3 inches left on the ground and misting rain. The temp held steady in the upper 30's all day. By noon it was gone, but we did miss school that day. Big snows happen in March and history shows it, but it certainly doesn't happen every year but it can and will again at some point ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 18, 2020, 01:25:27 PM
I just checked the snowfall year to date on top of Sugar Mountain at 5,300 feet and they have had 44 inches of snow so far this winter. A good winter they will top 100 inches. There most in the last 10 years is 125 inches for a winter season. The 44 so far this winter is pretty amazing with the pattern we have seen all winter. I think they will hit 60 inches by the time winter is over. Most years they pick up 15 inches or more in March


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2020, 01:29:30 PM
Totally agree. That was a once in a life time storm. I will probably never see another one like that in Johnson City


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hurricane sandy almost spread the heavy snow that far south to the tri cities....about 100 miles northeast got walloped with 20+
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 18, 2020, 02:19:12 PM
Check out the nearly perfect circle the PV is in:

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1229828502268108800?

Really amazing considering most low solar years feature a negative or weak AO. I gambled on that in my winter forecast and busted big time.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 18, 2020, 02:30:22 PM
hurricane sandy almost spread the heavy snow that far south to the tri cities....about 100 miles northeast got walloped with 20+


Mt. LeConte in the Smokies at 6,600 feet got around 40 inches of snow from Sandy. They were in the mid 20ís with heavy snow and Johnson City was around 40 with lots of rain


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 18, 2020, 02:45:36 PM
18z NAM3 - for what it's worth - still holds serve for some flakeage, mainly S of 40 and E of 65.  Areas along the Plateau may see an inch.  Mountains could do slightly better.  We're squarely within the NAM's sweetspot so the globals should take a backseat.  The 0z NAM3 should be appointment viewing.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2020, 02:48:00 PM

Mt. LeConte in the Smokies at 6,600 feet got around 40 inches of snow from Sandy. They were in the mid 20ís with heavy snow and Johnson City was around 40 with lots of rain


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that is BEYOND too much for my liking, that is very dangerous getting tht much snow. anything in the 8-12 range is perfect to me....enough to cover everything and look like a winter wonderland for a few days, and then after being stuck for about 3 days lets get it melted so I don't get cabin fever lol

I can remember being a kid in NJ getting a decent 14-16 inch nor easter blizzard type storm with heavy wet snow and the wind blowing in the ocean over sea walls and power outages, roof collapses, was beautiful and eerily scary at the same time....and to think that was minor compared to a lot of the nor easters up that way
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: TNHunter on February 18, 2020, 03:44:36 PM
Lol and people were calling for an early arrival of spring.  The next 15 days is going to be pretty cold, colder stretch than most of the winter. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 18, 2020, 03:52:38 PM
18z NAM3 - for what it's worth - still holds serve for some flakeage, mainly S of 40 and E of 65.  Areas along the Plateau may see an inch.  Mountains could do slightly better.  We're squarely within the NAM's sweetspot so the globals should take a backseat.  The 0z NAM3 should be appointment viewing.
MRXís afternoon AFD is reluctant to go with the NAM, but is basically saying you got our attention.

From MRX AFD: ďWill continue to watch this system though as
things could change if the NAM is correct as it is slightly colder
and shows more QPFĒ


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: EastTNWX on February 18, 2020, 04:57:04 PM
The latest nam and gfs bring around 3 inches to the Knox area.
Title: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 18, 2020, 09:04:34 PM
Iím liking this NAM 3k. Continues to slowly beef up East Tn totals. Hopefully GFS follows suit.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200219/2f52ba6c6213b611e4a8465b82f2a419.jpg)


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 18, 2020, 09:26:22 PM
0z NAM3 really bahhumbugish for anyone outside East TN.  Surprised?  Nope.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 18, 2020, 09:35:58 PM
If anyone is wondering, yes I'm cheering against the insufferable North Carolinians from getting yet another big storm. May they have the coldest of rain.  >:D
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Crockett on February 18, 2020, 09:42:04 PM
Iím liking this NAM 3k. Continues to slowly beef up East Tn totals. Hopefully GFS follows suit.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200219/2f52ba6c6213b611e4a8465b82f2a419.jpg)


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Fear the SE trend.  >:D
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 18, 2020, 09:53:56 PM
Fear the SE trend.  >:D
Booo! We donít wish you missing snow.
I hope it over performs and we get 2-4Ē. Lol


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 19, 2020, 07:52:45 AM
Wow.  12z HRRR screws everyone.  Even NC.  Thermals are wayyyy off.  NAM3 is a good 6-8F colder than the HRRR. 

If anyone is wondering, yes I'm cheering against the insufferable North Carolinians from getting yet another big storm. May they have the coldest of rain.  >:D

You did this....congrats. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 19, 2020, 08:06:38 AM
This ain't it
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: mudaddict on February 19, 2020, 08:07:13 AM
I'll take one of the 12z nam plz
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 19, 2020, 08:07:48 AM
12Z NAM is back to a more robust solution for much of west and middle TN.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on February 19, 2020, 08:08:17 AM
I'll take one of the 12z nam plz

I wish, but the NAM has been the outlier here.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 19, 2020, 08:17:09 AM
If anyone is wondering, yes I'm cheering against the insufferable North Carolinians from getting yet another big storm. May they have the coldest of rain.  >:D
congrats North Carolina . Coast even
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 19, 2020, 08:19:39 AM
NAM12 much more robust than the NAM3, which is very snowy.  Given the look presented by the HRRR, though, I'm highly skeptical of the NAM.  It may be overdoing the precip shield and going extraordinarily low on temps, I don't know.

And for what it's worth, the 0z RGEM, 6z GFS, 0z Euro are very similar to the 12z HRRR.   ::coffee::

I wish, but the NAM has been the outlier here.

Seems to be the case.

Wish we could find an RPM forecast...
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 19, 2020, 08:44:08 AM
The 6z gfs... now has a apps runner just in the truncation time frame ... nice snow ⛄️ hit for west and middle Tennessee ...  just trying keep hope alive  :)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2020, 08:45:37 AM
When is the last time we actually had a REAL threat of a gulf Low winter storm? I know the past three years there has not been a true gulf low threat to even get excited about, but I honestly cannot remember the last one that was close enough to worry about
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 19, 2020, 08:54:08 AM
The 6z gfs... now has a apps runner just in the truncation time frame ... nice snow ⛄️ hit for west and middle Tennessee ...  just trying keep hope alive  :)

Yes.  H180 is a beauty.  Relevant issue at hand?  The 0z GFS had it about 200 miles further west and the 0z Euro didn't have it at all.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 19, 2020, 09:02:11 AM
Been watching this for over 8 days, haven't even talking on here much. If I had I am sure I would have been told to forget about it. LOL! I am not sweating it one way or another, my area is still just on the northern edge of the best of model solutions. I have really been thinking there was a good chance it snows on some of the folks on this forum, but didn't want to be called a wishcaster. Actually models at times have had snow well into Tennessee this week off an on. I know, we all know models. LOL! But had a feeling that others would be chiming in as we got closer. I guess being burnt on winter weather over the years hasn't took the fun out of watching and tracking even when it doesn't go my way, at least into or around mid-march I like to hold out hope. I get into it, but at the end of the day it doesn't discourage me to anger or nothing. As much as I love it I get over it quickly, that is a good thing. I enjoyed listening to folks talk on other sites particulary this storm and all folks thoughts about it. And good info guys over there on American Weather at the Tenn Valley forum. Good luck to all south and east of me, I have a feeling that many of you are going to get a surprise you were't expecting. Nothing big, but a ground covered with snow is better than a bare ground. ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 19, 2020, 09:41:18 AM
hurricane sandy almost spread the heavy snow that far south to the tri cities....about 100 miles northeast got walloped with 20+

I hiked up to the top of Leconte in 3ft drifts during that storm. It was unreal
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 19, 2020, 10:59:23 AM
12z GFS is a miss for most, even across NC.  There's gonna be some folks over there verrryyyy disappointed come tomorrow evening.  I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts these calls of 2-4" across portions of NC don't come close.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 19, 2020, 11:14:24 AM
12z GFS is a miss for most, even across NC.  There's gonna be some folks over there verrryyyy disappointed come tomorrow evening.  I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts these calls of 2-4" across portions of NC don't come close.
were you  going for gfs result ? Cause tropical tidbits  not working properly for me today lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 19, 2020, 11:16:11 AM
were I going for gfs result ? Cause tropical tidbits  not working properly for me today lol

Tropical Tidbits.  The GFS was running an hour behind normal.  It's up now.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 19, 2020, 11:35:19 AM
O boy, if we can only get that look at hour 120 on 12 zgfs. In April...

Post Merge: Yesterday at 11:42:41 AM
981 mb slp over northern Oklahoma that cuts on gfs fantasy land course  lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 19, 2020, 11:48:27 AM
Yes.  H180 is a beauty.  Relevant issue at hand?  The 0z GFS had it about 200 miles further west and the 0z Euro didn't have it at all.   ::coffee::

Bruce's "apps runner" has now turned into a Gulf Stream streaker. 

(https://media.giphy.com/media/PmXITGVkbPLs0nfCw6/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 19, 2020, 12:13:10 PM
12z Euro: GAME ON
Coming to the NAMs solution for tomorrow


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 19, 2020, 12:17:09 PM
Nearly all modeling continues to bring more moisture further north. 12z euro was almost lock and step with the 12z NAM. For example, QPF at Memphis is now at 0.25 to 0.30. If you can get decent rates, it should change to snow fairly easily. The southern counties in TN along with the southern plateau do decent. And by decent I mean itís a minor event if that.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 19, 2020, 12:22:27 PM
Yep, the 12Z Euro caved completely to the NAM. Looks like the accum maps are going to be very similar. Euro has 3" over southern middle TN, central and southern Plateau, and much of East TN.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 19, 2020, 12:42:16 PM
12z Euro.....

(https://media.giphy.com/media/3o6fIUOohyg4yegu1G/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 19, 2020, 12:51:41 PM
12z Euro.....

(https://giphy.com/gifs/sport-corso-3o6fIUOohyg4yegu1G)
reading other forum... would think a full blizzard weíre heading their way... lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Matthew on February 19, 2020, 12:52:49 PM
Is it bad Iím not even excited to see a flake?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 19, 2020, 12:54:01 PM
Is it bad Iím not even excited to see a flake?
jesus. I hope not ... we all are jaded.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Crockett on February 19, 2020, 01:13:43 PM
It doesn't happen often, but the Euro is just as stoned as the NAM for once.  ::rofl:: What would snowfall rates have to be for several inches of accumulation with ground temps being what they are, surface temps in the mid 30s, and a late February sun angle?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 19, 2020, 01:16:55 PM
What would snowfall rates have to be for several inches of accumulation with ground temps being what they are, surface temps in the mid 30s, and a late February sun angle?

Good question! I just know in my experience rates trump almost everything. If you can get it to snow hard enough the air and ground temps don't really matter. I think that is what is being represented on some of these accum maps across s middle TN and much of east TN.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Crockett on February 19, 2020, 01:27:06 PM
Good question! I just know in my experience rates trump almost everything. If you can get it to snow hard enough the air and ground temps don't really matter. I think that is what is being represented on some of these accum maps across s middle TN and much of east TN.

In southern Middle TN I can see it. And, obviously, the mountains should do okay. For the rest of us, I really don't see it.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: wfrogge on February 19, 2020, 01:42:05 PM
Looking long range.... more of the same pattern.....

Going to be a little wet
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: snowdog on February 19, 2020, 01:51:29 PM
It doesn't happen often, but the Euro is just as stoned as the NAM for once.  ::rofl:: What would snowfall rates have to be for several inches of accumulation with ground temps being what they are, surface temps in the mid 30s, and a late February sun angle?

This is where it is snowing and you hear the trickle down your downspout as it melts almost as fast as it falls. Sun angle today is roughly the same as it is in late October. Enjoy watching it fall, it won't be around long.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 19, 2020, 02:29:54 PM
If you want to add insult to injury at this point in a dismal winter- the EPS / Euro control is really cold and stormy through the first week of March. Wouldnít be surprised if we are looking at more chances of winter- just when we are ready to flip the season.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 19, 2020, 02:33:18 PM
MRX just issued WSW for Gatlinburg, Cades Cove, Elkmont and Hartford for 4a-10p tomorrow. 2Ē-4Ē possible with moderate to heavy snow at times.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TNZ074&warncounty=TNC155&firewxzone=TNZ074&local_place1=4%20Miles%20SSW%20Gatlinburg%20TN&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=35.6627&lon=-83.5119#.Xk2ZECVOmaM


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 19, 2020, 02:38:03 PM
I have a feeling - and one some know all too well - someone across the I-40 corridor from Knoxville to the East Coast is going to be highly upset.  This is a highly bustable forecast, on both sides of the equation.  Anxious to see how this verifies.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 19, 2020, 02:38:33 PM
If you want to add insult to injury at this point in a dismal winter- the EPS / Euro control is really cold and stormy through the first week of March. Wouldnít be surprised if we are looking at more chances of winter- just when we are ready to flip the season.
hopefully the CFSv2 is on to something  starting show a healthy La NiŮa forming . These cold rains are getting very old.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 19, 2020, 02:40:24 PM
18z NAM3 is a snowmaker for most E of 65 and S of 40 all the way to Myrtle Beach.  Accums spike in the mountains, but barely meet warning criteria.   ::coffee::

18z HRRR is squadoosh for most outside the Smokies.  I mean nothing but a few flakes scattered about.  Quite a difference in model suites that specialize in short-term forecasting.  It does spike 7-9" totals across the GSMNP.  Not sure I buy that. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on February 19, 2020, 02:40:50 PM
I have no idea what to think for tomorrow. I was very skeptical of the last event, and I was wrong. The NAM is extremely healthy-looking, and it was the only model to nail the high totals we saw week before last. I don't like trusting the NAM. Feels dirty somehow.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 19, 2020, 02:43:47 PM
I have a feeling - and one some know all too well - someone across the I-40 corridor from Knoxville to the East Coast is going to be highly upset.  This is a highly bustable forecast, on both sides of the equation.  Anxious to see how this verifies.

Bustable in both directions depending on what kind of official forecast and advisories we get. The 12Z EPS mean is up to 3" for much of southern middle TN, yet there is no way that will be in the official forecast. May end up being a nowcast/wait and issue til its falling kind of thing. Which is a nightmare for schools, etc.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 19, 2020, 02:52:08 PM
15z SREF has mean accums of 1.5" around Cookeville to 4" in a tight swath all the way to the Atlantic.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2020, 02:53:21 PM
another classic case of " will the moisture make it far north enough for middle Tennessee "
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 19, 2020, 02:55:44 PM
Bustable in both directions depending on what kind of official forecast and advisories we get. The 12Z EPS mean is up to 3" for much of southern middle TN, yet there is no way that will be in the official forecast. May end up being a nowcast/wait and issue til its falling kind of thing. Which is a nightmare for schools, etc.

I think that's way overdone.  OHX released their afternoon disco and mentioned barely a dusting for those outside the Plateau, given such warm ground.  I'm sure it'll fall like crazy, it just won't accumulate.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 19, 2020, 02:58:56 PM
I have no idea what to think for tomorrow. I was very skeptical of the last event, and I was wrong. The NAM is extremely healthy-looking, and it was the only model to nail the high totals we saw week before last. I don't like trusting the NAM. Feels dirty somehow.

I'm right there with you, albeit I'm talking more about Nashville area and not Chattanooga area. I didn't believe the models for the last minor event, and sure enough we got some white stuff and they proved me wrong. I don't know about this one, though. I just don't see this one materializing. It's going to be a temperature and/or available moisture problem. The soundings just don't look promising to me vs what the snowfall maps are showing. That's my non-scientific, jaded opinion. Models seem to be against me. I'd love to be wrong. 
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 19, 2020, 03:06:57 PM
OHX AFD:

Quote
Evaporative cooling will be in play during the morning
hours. As the sounding cools a mixture of rain and snow can be
expected. However, amounts will be light, and with the warm ground,
any accumulations will generally be just a half inch or less
.
Furthermore, any accumulation will be confined to mainly the higher
elevations of the southern and central Plateau. For this reason,
have decided not to issue any advisory at this time.
Look for the
precipitation to end along the Plateau in the late afternoon.

HUN:

Quote
Low level northeast flow (good ageostrophic response to the
upper jet) along with solid precipitation falling appear to induce
rapid cooling of low levels. In fact, a near freezing isothermal
profile develops around 14-17Z above the above freezing near surface
layer. This should yield a mix or change to snow in our higher
elevations, with a few flakes possibly mixing in valley areas. For
now, will be conservative on the valley snowfall given the
uncertainty of the cooling. Temps in valley area may have snow
falling with temps in the m-u30s. We may need to ramp this up
quickly if forecast sounding profiles persist in this fashion
. A
quick light accumulation on elevated surfaces is likely in a 1-3 hour
period late Thursday morning
.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 19, 2020, 03:08:41 PM
MRX being very cautious. Issued SWS for non Mtn areas of East Tn. ďUp to 1 inchĒ. If the NAM/Euro verifies, gonna be a huge bust by them. Iíd think theyíd rather bust over than under. Nowcast gonna be the thing. Letís see how 00z runs look tonight. If they donít budge, do they go with the models or stay conservative?


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Woodvegas on February 19, 2020, 03:27:56 PM
There is some potential at the end of next week. Iím upgrading from SNOW DEFCON 5 to 4.

Based on the 2/19 12Z Euro I'm upgrading to SNOW DEFCON 3. The trend has been mostly favorable but I'm not sold yet.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on February 19, 2020, 03:31:27 PM
MRX being very cautious. Issued SWS for non Mtn areas of East Tn. ďUp to 1 inchĒ. If the NAM/Euro verifies, gonna be a huge bust by them. Iíd think theyíd rather bust over than under. Nowcast gonna be the thing. Letís see how 00z runs look tonight. If they donít budge, do they go with the models or stay conservative?


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::panic:: ::panic:: Bread and milk!  ::panic:: ::panic::
More seriously, this has been fun to track.  As is usually the case with winter weather in East Tennessee, especially the valley, we'll know what's really going to happen once it is (or isn't) on the ground.  We'll see what they're saying at breakfast tomorrow.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2020, 03:34:42 PM
if we could just get a little extra lift and moisture in southern mid tn tomorrow I would be excited.....things are starting to develop out west so its really time to start nowcasting and radar watching rather than model output ( in my opinion lol )
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Crockett on February 19, 2020, 03:36:19 PM
MRX being very cautious. Issued SWS for non Mtn areas of East Tn. ďUp to 1 inchĒ. If the NAM/Euro verifies, gonna be a huge bust by them. Iíd think theyíd rather bust over than under. Nowcast gonna be the thing. Letís see how 00z runs look tonight. If they donít budge, do they go with the models or stay conservative?


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This might come across as condescending or something, and I don't mean for it to, but there is a reason that real meteorologists with real training and education are needed to compile these forecasts. If it were as simple as building a forecast based on a face-value interpretation of a model, anyone could do it. Frankly, I think it's the right call by MRX. I'll admit that the ECMWF jumping on board at the 11th hour lends a little credibility to what the NAM has been preaching, but it's still hard to believe. The conditions on the ground being depicted by those very same models just don't line up with the accumulations they're painting, and the HRRR seems to agree with that. If the HRRR starts to come around in the next few hours, I'll change my tune. I just don't see any way this presents travel concerns outside the mountains, which is what a WWA should be based on.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: bugalou on February 19, 2020, 03:45:03 PM
Someone should start a new thread in the winter section for this now that its nowcast time and it looks like someone will see a little of the frozen stuff out of  this.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: joemomma on February 19, 2020, 03:48:12 PM
TDOT was putting brine down at lunch on I-40 here in Cookeville.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2020, 03:58:19 PM
This might come across as condescending or something, and I don't mean for it to, but there is a reason that real meteorologists with real training and education are needed to compile these forecasts. If it were as simple as building a forecast based on a face-value interpretation of a model, anyone could do it. Frankly, I think it's the right call by MRX. I'll admit that the ECMWF jumping on board at the 11th hour lends a little credibility to what the NAM has been preaching, but it's still hard to believe. The conditions on the ground being depicted by those very same models just don't line up with the accumulations they're painting, and the HRRR seems to agree with that. If the HRRR starts to come around in the next few hours, I'll change my tune. I just don't see any way this presents travel concerns outside the mountains, which is what a WWA should be based on.

VERY WELL SAID! I have really learned my lesson this year, if it was model casting we could have over a foot of snow by now this season, it is so much more complicated than most of us could dream of, we can see ideas and trends but forecasting is out of our league Ö. I honestly think it is out of mets league more than 5 days out also really lol.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 19, 2020, 04:03:13 PM
Thread started in the winter section.  Continue the discussion there.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Michael on February 19, 2020, 04:27:05 PM
This might come across as condescending or something, and I don't mean for it to, but there is a reason that real meteorologists with real training and education are needed to compile these forecasts. If it were as simple as building a forecast based on a face-value interpretation of a model, anyone could do it. Frankly, I think it's the right call by MRX. I'll admit that the ECMWF jumping on board at the 11th hour lends a little credibility to what the NAM has been preaching, but it's still hard to believe. The conditions on the ground being depicted by those very same models just don't line up with the accumulations they're painting, and the HRRR seems to agree with that. If the HRRR starts to come around in the next few hours, I'll change my tune. I just don't see any way this presents travel concerns outside the mountains, which is what a WWA should be based on.
I agree. MRX is always most conservative.
Fyi...GFS now on board with Euro/NAM.

Gonna be an interesting 24 hours or so.


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Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 20, 2020, 07:58:07 AM
Looking ahead to next week, there's one helluva storm projected on the Euro.  The GFS has us on the cold side (weaker system)  and the Euro has us on the warm side.  No big surprise there, but the fact that both globals have it in some form or fashion is encouraging.  At least it's something else to watch for.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 20, 2020, 08:24:59 AM
Looking ahead to next week, there's one helluva storm projected on the Euro.  The GFS has us on the cold side (weaker system)  and the Euro has us on the warm side.  No big surprise there, but the fact that both globals have it in some form or fashion is encouraging.  At least it's something else to watch for.   ::coffee::
yes sir... ::coffee:: ::coffee:: ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Vols1 on February 20, 2020, 08:26:58 AM
Are we talking about Monday?
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 20, 2020, 08:27:56 AM
Are we talking about Monday?

No.  Wednesday/Thursday.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 20, 2020, 08:38:36 AM
Looking ahead to next week, there's one helluva storm projected on the Euro.  The GFS has us on the cold side (weaker system)  and the Euro has us on the warm side.  No big surprise there, but the fact that both globals have it in some form or fashion is encouraging.  At least it's something else to watch for.   ::coffee::
Totally different setup but the GFS actually kicked the Euro ass with todayís system. Especially in the medium range.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 20, 2020, 08:56:55 AM
Totally different setup but the GFS actually kicked the Euro ass with todayís system. Especially in the medium range.

That's kinda what has me intrigued.  Definitely worth paying attention to.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 20, 2020, 09:38:36 AM
Got a feeling todayís 12z runs going be very  interesting ...

Post Merge: Today at 11:07:36 AM
The gfs just keeps spitting out some bombs of slp in the long range ... amazing
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Coach B on February 20, 2020, 02:02:26 PM
Took a peek at the long range Euro, doesn't look like we are done with our winter weather chances. Multiple systems diving at us from the northwest, Plateau and mountains will be favored, but hopefully we can all get in the game again before we're done.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Eric on February 20, 2020, 02:15:09 PM
OHX already has their eyes on next Wed/Thurs.

Quote
After being in the warm sector several days, cold air sinks in behind
this second system...and exiting pcpn Wed night may end with a
brief wintry mix, especially on the Plateau
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 20, 2020, 02:31:50 PM
OHX already has their eyes on next Wed/Thurs.

Ah the classic ohx line "especially on the Plateau" :) lol

Post Merge: Today at 04:21:57 PM
well today was kind of neat.....still no gulf low threat this year and none on the horizon :( more sunshine everyday now....march 1st is less than two weeks away....really only 3-4 weeks left in the season , yet again running out of time for the third year in a row....
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Curt on February 20, 2020, 05:41:16 PM
12z Euro control is a nice bowling ball diving down that meets up with the STJ. Now thatís more like it for better chances of winter precip. A full phase would be really cool to watch right over our area. Has a decent shot to give the northeast itís first decent snow since November.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 20, 2020, 06:14:53 PM
12z Euro control is a nice bowling ball diving down that meets up with the STJ. Now thatís more like it for better chances of winter precip. A full phase would be really cool to watch right over our area. Has a decent shot to give the northeast itís first decent snow since November.
looks interesting for sure, hopefully it can produce more than this crappy dusting to half inch or so stuff we been dealing with last two weeks... I apologize if my jaded attitude toward winter came out on this post. lol
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: gcbama on February 20, 2020, 07:28:06 PM
looks interesting for sure, hopefully it can produce more than this crappy dusting to half inch or so stuff we been dealing with last two weeks... I apologize if my jaded attitude toward winter came out on this post. lol

bruce lol I agree, I am very jaded anymore, my last post shows it lol....we only have 3-4 more weeks of winter left, and this time of year with the days being longer and sun angle changing....idk if it will happen :(
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: BRUCE on February 20, 2020, 07:36:54 PM
bruce lol I agree, I am very jaded anymore, my last post shows it lol....we only have 3-4 more weeks of winter left, and this time of year with the days being longer and sun angle changing....idk if it will happen :(
true. Weíre heading in the period of winter weíre things are working against us ... but at the same time , these systems can be very dynamic  this time winter . Thatís why you hear the big March snows that happen from time to time . , but they are also kind rare . So there is that also.
Title: Re: February 2020
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 20, 2020, 07:51:54 PM
The odds are going down as we enter late feb and early march, but if things come together late winter can have big dog potential. More times than none it doesn't happen, but transition season can land a doozy sometimes. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::