Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Eric on January 08, 2020, 07:02:53 AM

Title: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Eric on January 08, 2020, 07:02:53 AM
Let's keep all relevant banter about this event here.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on January 08, 2020, 07:09:19 AM
Whether the system goes severe or not we are looking at a record high for the day on Saturday in Knoxville if we get to the forecast high of 73.  With the rainfall on mostly saturated ground followed by days of rain in the following week water may be the long-term story of this sequence regardless.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2020, 07:37:12 AM
Interesting system thatís for sure ... todayís runs be critical on more meso data  thatís going be important ...
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2020, 08:14:04 AM
until something drastic changes  I am sticking with mainly ms/al getting the majority of the weather with possibly scattered severe warnings here...they will have more cape to deal with down there

Post Merge: January 08, 2020, 12:12:40 PM
really looking like tupelo to cullman and south of the 278 corridor in alabama will be the hot spot...things can change , but right now that's the way it looks

Post Merge: January 08, 2020, 04:01:30 PM
I just realized we are going on 8 years since the last high risk day in any part of tennessee
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: wfrogge on January 08, 2020, 11:57:20 PM
Chasing pretty far south of our state line but I expect numerous tornado warnings for Tennessee starting early Saturday and going throughout the day. Hopefully it ejects quickly and gets out of our area faster than models are showing right now.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Charles L. on January 09, 2020, 03:26:58 AM
Latest SPC update only has the very far southern tip of TN in the slight risk zone for Saturday.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: wfrogge on January 09, 2020, 07:51:01 AM
Latest SPC update only has the very far southern tip of TN in the slight risk zone for Saturday.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Its only day 3....

With the saturated ground and the crazy winds every model is showing we will have falling tree issues with the line at the very least.

Edit

Check this out


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on January 09, 2020, 08:42:23 AM
Its only day 3....

With the saturated ground and the crazy winds every model is showing we will have falling tree issues with the line at the very least.

It's a good thing my parents gave me a new chainsaw for my birthday last month; I've already used it this week after the wet ground finally got the best of a small, dead tree in our backyard.  Let's hope it doesn't get too much exercise on Sunday.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on January 09, 2020, 09:25:27 AM
Looking less likely that the flooding threat will materialize. Globals have really backed off on qpf. I suspect they are sniffing out Gulf Coast convection robbing moisture return.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Eric on January 09, 2020, 12:37:08 PM
Day 2 MDT issued for a small portion of the ArkLaTex for tomorrow.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 09, 2020, 04:23:51 PM
3k NAM

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 09, 2020, 04:39:04 PM
3k NAM

(Attachment Link)

just not enough cape up here for widespread event I don't think
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 10, 2020, 06:14:01 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200110/19298cb05c7dea7fc2ee6c90ee8bf618.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2020, 06:45:47 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200110/19298cb05c7dea7fc2ee6c90ee8bf618.jpg)
Umm. Interesting ...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Post Merge: January 10, 2020, 06:48:09 AM
just not enough cape up here for widespread event I don't think
winter cool severe season threat ... cape isnít as critical as in a true spring time
Event...  that slp placement going be some rough winds just to the se  of it for sure ...
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Eric on January 10, 2020, 06:59:43 AM
The MDT upgrade was due to the threat of severe wind gusts.  Not much tornado-making, but there's gonna be some pretty severe wind damage along that line I'm willing to bet.  Will that translate to Mid TN tomorrow?  Not sure.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: wfrogge on January 10, 2020, 07:40:18 AM
Hurricane Elvis part 2
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2020, 08:07:58 AM

Post Merge: January 10, 2020, 06:48:09 AM
winter cool severe season threat ... cape isnít as critical as in a true spring time
Event...  that slp placement going be some rough winds just to the se  of it for sure ...

I agree...however you really do need at least 400 or so cape for a widespread event in cool season...parts of ms and alabama will be around the 700-800's and we will be lucky to get in the 300's, so it is a reduced threat for us compared to Bama and MS tomorrow that's just my thinking bruce :)
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: justinmundie on January 10, 2020, 08:29:57 AM
The MDT upgrade was due to the threat of severe wind gusts.  Not much tornado-making, but there's gonna be some pretty severe wind damage along that line I'm willing to bet.  Will that translate to Mid TN tomorrow?  Not sure.

Didnít hatched tornado risk get moved up to Memphis?
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2020, 08:31:23 AM
Didnít hatched tornado risk get moved up to Memphis?

you are correct...just by a hair Memphis is in the hatched 10%
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Eric on January 10, 2020, 08:39:38 AM
Pretty neat description of a "cool-season" skew-T for those that are of inquiring minds.  (h/t @JackSillin)

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/8PTekyJ85Lf23fTLBIORU40hd29S90ttJbWBFGYwrfXnJB89GqO1F17MIXNcBTJazEMuB7FBE5AFHyb8cSeobFG7NEynL29OafKFM2kQRljI2IvdKaei7Jy6A9MW9wswXUrarUrLnO1XpNfIYhCt3wz0D8V6sQ_quEIRKZYhTb9y6LlZaZ8B5KCjSu8yjE9MX_i5KOpsgDyOPs50nkHVAEL_9-j6twSmtLDfwLO7gvsei5bgrTAh7P6tJheEsesFgFGFHAAd6s5C5-JU3xWy35bCLbUId-CO0oq4D7ChWiHPuHkO3rBKGHAR-NlfzWJtV5C-CccSjXddDK1csZsKFM_eK_PwTC4ugGZxIHGKyc8V_pnPw9R5paChNBljeRm70Wx3IIqPuP7W1YcKzJphnrrwnxRV4sShB33wBIBrpp-vRK5KGBwzREpPEHtOJ8YTrPSeiicNENgGTwiZyvqmSFb4ClVN-hEykK0_OD_UzztSDXyOnAAidSOsbW-7sPTPb-FJTESqh8PVkQkhYLleBY1GCYulfOGou2TF6AK5rOztm5ZPEMMsUjr-VA8RN_VuI4HoSnpiq8M-k2cFuw9Q07jQtYA9Fz9ctpYW4OqUljAYwzO8NcS6VgyMGgr2BG-glc_rhJuufil33X2_2yMsEmN_rE03M4EOj9U284_NJEhYuzSEaKtWwQ=w960-h720-no)

Post Merge: January 10, 2020, 09:15:07 AM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/hTDQBdMlPDEeewFFhl/giphy.gif)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EN7dzl7VAAIO4OF?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2020, 09:35:15 AM
interesting that SPC has discussion for central Oklahoma well west of the moderate risk area talking about supercells/tornadoes...?
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: wfrogge on January 10, 2020, 10:19:16 AM
interesting that SPC has discussion for central Oklahoma well west of the moderate risk area talking about supercells/tornadoes...?

Noticed last night that surface obs were not in line with models. Dew points were in the 60s into OK at that time.... This system might dangerously over perform for west Tennessee.

Edit.....

Latest HRRR models show what might end up being pre-frontal storms across West and Central Arkansas. Lets hope that does not happen.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Eric on January 10, 2020, 10:26:39 AM
First tornado watch of the day being discussed for SE Oklahoma as that area is becoming less and less capped. 

First TOR of the day...SE Oklahoma.  If you had that square, you win.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Charles L. on January 10, 2020, 11:07:30 AM
The prods on that OK TOR Watch are higher than I thought they would be...
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2020, 11:37:52 AM
hmmmm we are now in hatched area tomorrow? cape must be forecast to increase a bit?
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: justinmundie on January 10, 2020, 11:39:53 AM
hmmmm we are now in hatched area tomorrow? cape must be forecast to increase a bit?

If you read the discos - seems everyone agrees that models are undergoing moisture return and WAA.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Eric on January 10, 2020, 02:13:02 PM
SPC:
Quote
Intense background
   flow fields and associated very large hodographs will support both
   the threat for severe gusts with bowing segments in the squall line
   and a conditional risk for tornadoes with any supercell managing to
   develop ahead of the squall line or with stronger mesovortices.

Risk was elevated due to severe winds and not tornadoes, specifically.  But increased Tds and WAA will undoubtedly elevate instability, too.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2020, 04:19:08 PM
really turning into a nasty squall out west
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: StormNine on January 10, 2020, 04:56:56 PM
There is now a MDT risk in Memphis with the Enhanced Risk almost to US 45 tonight/wee morning hours.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2020, 05:16:52 PM
really turning into a nasty squall out west
derecheo? Mmm
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: StormNine on January 10, 2020, 05:20:17 PM
They pushed up the tip off time for UGA/Auburn from 7pm to 11am due to severe weather.

SW MO gets to have a severe weather cake and a winter weather cake with the same storm.   
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: mempho on January 10, 2020, 08:04:32 PM
Since 1950 the State of TN has only had 6 EF 3+ tornadoes and 2 EF4+ tornadoes.

This- while not impossible - double digit snowfalls would be a more common occurrence.

That doesn't mean that we won't see such an event but I wouldn't bet the house on it either.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2020, 08:15:32 PM
Since 1950 the State of TN has only had 6 EF 3+ tornadoes and 2 EF4+ tornadoes.

This- while not impossible - double digit snowfalls would be a more common occurrence.

That doesn't mean that we won't see such an event but I wouldn't bet the house on it either.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
jackson Madison county had had 3 Ef 4!tornadoes alone since 1999

Post Merge: January 10, 2020, 08:17:32 PM
Better chance getting severe weather here now then we see snow these days   Sad
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: mempho on January 10, 2020, 08:25:32 PM
jackson Madison county had had 3 Ef 4!tornadoes alone since 1999

Post Merge: January 10, 2020, 08:17:32 PM
Better chance getting severe weather here now then we see snow these days   Sad
In January, though?  I'm saying only for the month of January.  If there is an EF3+ anywhere in the state of TN, we'd be looking at a highly unusual event.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: mempho on January 10, 2020, 08:44:39 PM
SPC has gotten rid of the significant tornado risk as of the latest update so it looks like the EF3+ risk is (quite thankfully) mostly gone.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2020, 08:45:29 PM
Storms in West central Arkansas really starting to strengthen now....

Post Merge: January 10, 2020, 08:46:53 PM
Complementary of the lower level jet starting to really amp up
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Beth on January 10, 2020, 10:37:43 PM
If we have to have severe weather can we please wait till Spring. Snow or Sunny are my faves in January! 😊
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on January 10, 2020, 11:34:50 PM
Storms in West central Arkansas really starting to strengthen now....

Post Merge: January 10, 2020, 08:46:53 PM
Complementary of the lower level jet starting to really amp up

Did I... just read a BRUCE post with no misspellings or grammatical errors?

Holy sh1t
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Jason M on January 11, 2020, 12:47:55 AM
Tornado watch posted now including the river counties here in West TN 🤔 just got in from work and the wind is quite stiff already
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on January 11, 2020, 04:37:22 AM
The current map from MEG is the most colorful I've seen in a long time and maybe the most colorful ever at this hour of the morning. Hopefully we can see some excitement from this storm system but no damage.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Charles L. on January 11, 2020, 04:40:47 AM
Tunica just had a 79 mph wind gust. Wow power outages are going to be widespread over there.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: mempho on January 11, 2020, 05:06:32 AM
TOR for eastern parts of Desoto and Shelby

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: bugalou on January 11, 2020, 05:09:12 AM
Almost certain a Tornado passed just about a mile south of me.  Could not see anything but could hear it and it also looks like a debris ball was present on dual pol.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Charles L. on January 11, 2020, 05:11:20 AM
Almost certain a Tornado passed just about a mile south of me.  Could not see anything but could hear it and it also looks like a debris ball was present on dual pol.

Wow glad you are safe!

Debris ball still evident too, just not as pronounced as a few scans ago.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Hank W on January 11, 2020, 05:12:17 AM
TDS over eastern Desoto now and the local stations are talking about weak rotation saying wind is likely the bigger threat. Unreal.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: bugalou on January 11, 2020, 05:13:13 AM
Wow glad you are safe!

Debris ball still evident too, just not as pronounced as a few scans ago.

Me too.  First time I have felt fear over a Tornado since Super Tuesday.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Charles L. on January 11, 2020, 05:46:47 AM
Looks like a spin up trying to happen just NW of Benton, KY too...
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Ultra mag 1971 on January 11, 2020, 05:50:03 AM
Mother in law just called carport blown away in Fork Deere
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Charles L. on January 11, 2020, 06:49:27 AM
Now warnings pretty much up along the entire line. A TOR Warning in effect is far northern KY south of Evansville, IN.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: StormNine on January 11, 2020, 06:50:18 AM
That line is starting to get its act together.  It is positioned in a way that despite not that much instability it can maximize the jet energy and wind shear.  Potentially widespread damaging winds may be moving into Western Middle TN.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Charles L. on January 11, 2020, 07:00:40 AM
New Tornado Watch

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Sbeagles on January 11, 2020, 07:09:26 AM
Starting to bow out pretty good heading into Parsons
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Charles L. on January 11, 2020, 07:10:54 AM
Starting to bow out pretty good heading into Parsons

New warning on it says 70 mph wind gusts are possible

Post Merge: January 11, 2020, 07:11:50 AM
Also, an area of rotation is going over Cadiz, KY right now.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: OutsiderLuknIn on January 11, 2020, 07:16:51 AM
Power is cutting off and on in White House/Cottontown. Two times in the last 15 minutes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Charles L. on January 11, 2020, 07:34:37 AM
Tornado Warning for Humphreys County. Rotation just south of Waverly.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: wmp600 on January 11, 2020, 08:31:46 AM
Lots of wind & blinding heavy rain in Cheatham County near Ashland City. Some thunder.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Vols1 on January 11, 2020, 08:40:59 AM
Lots of wind and very heavy rain in southern Dickson. Most of the thunder has been after the main line.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: VandyMachine on January 11, 2020, 09:04:14 AM
Sun peeking out here. Temp 69F, wind is howling.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: StormNine on January 11, 2020, 10:12:52 AM
Widespread power issues in West KY at least 35k without power across a 6 County area.
Title: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Curt on January 11, 2020, 11:25:35 AM
Starting to see damage photos in Olive Branch. House damage in the Bethel Park area sure looks like at least EF1. That tornado looks like it might have been on the ground for a few miles too.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: bugalou on January 11, 2020, 11:35:30 AM
Starting to see damage photos in Olive Branch. House damage in the Bethel Park area sure looks like at least EF1. That tornado looks like it might have been on the ground for a few miles too.

Almost for certain it was just south of me.  I cannot visually confirm anything but it has that same roaring sound as when I saw the tornado on Super Tuesday in Southaven.   The debris ball came less than a mile from my house at its closest point.  Scary and you suddenly don't like severe weather when its that close to  your home.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on January 11, 2020, 11:55:32 AM
Guess what? No HTX radar. Business as usual. Iím actually in Huntsville today for a party. Having to use OHX for now.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: cgauxknox on January 11, 2020, 02:53:52 PM
From Sevier County EMA:

Update on the Raven Den Fire in Wears Valley as of 1415. The fire is approximately 60 acres in size with zero percent containment at this time. Mountain winds are expected to be 25-45 mph with gusts over 80 mph expected throughout the evening. The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina until 9pm. Damage assessment is ongoing. A shelter has been opened at the Pigeon Forge Community Center for anyone that has been affected.

Dudley Creek Bypass, Ridge Road and Baskins Creek Bypass are currently shut down in all directions due to downed trees and power lines. Please use caution while driving in all areas and we will post notification when those roads reopen.

The National Park Service has also closed Highway 441 to Cherokee, Little River Road and the Gatlinburg Bypass due to high winds and downed treesPlease use caution while driving in all areas and we will post notification when those roads reopen.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: StormNine on January 11, 2020, 05:10:04 PM
Quote
TNC025-067-112330-
/O.CON.KMRX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200111T2330Z/
Claiborne TN-Hancock TN-
604 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EST FOR
NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE AND NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 603 PM EST, a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles northeast of
Tazewell, or 13 miles west of Sneedville, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Claiborne and northwestern Hancock Counties.

Still going in East TN.  Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the Wears Valley area where the fire is at. 
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: bugalou on January 11, 2020, 05:54:49 PM
Tweet of loop of CC TDS from Desoto this morning: https://twitter.com/DanielGafford/status/1215954446833811456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
I was sheltered with my family and noticed this due south of where Radarscope had my GPS position at.  Talk about hairs standing up on the back of you neck.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: StormNine on January 11, 2020, 08:41:03 PM
The squall line/serial derecho is still going in the Carolinas.  This storm proves that if you are dynamic enough and can at least generate a suitable moisture return then you can rock a pretty potent cool-season event. Today had a lot of 3/1/2017 comparisons to it although TN as a whole didn't get hit quite as hard today as it did on that day.   

Post Merge: January 11, 2020, 08:41:52 PM
Tweet of loop of CC TDS from Desoto this morning: https://twitter.com/DanielGafford/status/1215954446833811456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
I was sheltered with my family and noticed this due south of where Radarscope had my GPS position at.  Talk about hairs standing up on the back of you neck.

That was a close call.   
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: dwagner88 on January 11, 2020, 08:51:12 PM
From Sevier County EMA:

Update on the Raven Den Fire in Wears Valley as of 1415. The fire is approximately 60 acres in size with zero percent containment at this time. Mountain winds are expected to be 25-45 mph with gusts over 80 mph expected throughout the evening. The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina until 9pm. Damage assessment is ongoing. A shelter has been opened at the Pigeon Forge Community Center for anyone that has been affected.

Dudley Creek Bypass, Ridge Road and Baskins Creek Bypass are currently shut down in all directions due to downed trees and power lines. Please use caution while driving in all areas and we will post notification when those roads reopen.

The National Park Service has also closed Highway 441 to Cherokee, Little River Road and the Gatlinburg Bypass due to high winds and downed treesPlease use caution while driving in all areas and we will post notification when those roads reopen.
I canít believe that anything could burn as wet as itís been. How did this fire start?
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Curt on January 12, 2020, 05:51:35 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200112/98c27cc4ce064d8107c4b46af0b76ac9.jpg)
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: bugalou on January 13, 2020, 11:54:43 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200112/98c27cc4ce064d8107c4b46af0b76ac9.jpg)

Just saw this.  Way too close to home.  This was even more close than I was super Tuesday. 
I am glad no one was hurt.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2020, 02:53:21 PM
I saw today that an EF2 tornado struck a town 30 miles west of Myrtle Beach, SC.

This January outbreak has to be pretty historic. This makes, what, nine different states that reported tornadoes?

Eight lives were lost as well. Winter outbreaks are so treacherous; people are least likely to expect powerful thunderstorms in mid-January, but when they strike, they are often rain-wrapped and nocturnal, especially in the Southeastern U.S.

Factoring in 1) higher population density and 2) mobile home residencies, the Southeast experiences deadlier outbreaks than the Plains do. Tornadoes can strike in our neck of the woods pretty much any time of the year, with the high summer and early autumn being the most rare time for them to occur.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: bugalou on January 13, 2020, 03:01:27 PM
I saw today that an EF2 tornado struck a town 30 miles west of Myrtle Beach, SC.

This January outbreak has to be pretty historic. This makes, what, nine different states that reported tornadoes?

Eight lives were lost as well. Winter outbreaks are so treacherous; people are least likely to expect powerful thunderstorms in mid-January, but when they strike, they are often rain-wrapped and nocturnal, especially in the Southeastern U.S.

Factoring in 1) higher population density and 2) mobile home residencies, the Southeast experiences deadlier outbreaks than the Plains do. Tornadoes can strike in our neck of the woods pretty much any time of the year, with the high summer and early autumn being the most rare time for them to occur.

And someone on reddit was trying to argue with me saying the SPC "busted hard" on Friday/Saturday.  I have no idea what they were talking about.  Though he claimed to be a "storm chaser" so was an obvious expert and knew way more than I did for sure.  ::)
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Eric on January 13, 2020, 03:07:31 PM
I saw today that an EF2 tornado struck a town 30 miles west of Myrtle Beach, SC.

This January outbreak has to be pretty historic. This makes, what, nine different states that reported tornadoes?

Eight lives were lost as well. Winter outbreaks are so treacherous; people are least likely to expect powerful thunderstorms in mid-January, but when they strike, they are often rain-wrapped and nocturnal, especially in the Southeastern U.S.

Factoring in 1) higher population density and 2) mobile home residencies, the Southeast experiences deadlier outbreaks than the Plains do. Tornadoes can strike in our neck of the woods pretty much any time of the year, with the high summer and early autumn being the most rare time for them to occur.

Bingo.  Found this data while completing my undergrad "thesis".  Maybe someone will find it interesting.

Quote
-Manufactured or mobile homes represent a fast growing portion of the US housing market.  Data retrieved from the United States Census Bureau (2013) indicated mobile homes accounted for 6.5% of total housing within the US, and in some localized areas, they accounted for 32.0% (Farmington, NM) and 29% (Yuma, AZ) of total housing, yet only a small percentage either contain or have access to a safe room or storm shelter.  Calculations performed by Merrell et al., (2006), indicate that tornado shelters provide cost-effective protection for residents of mobile homes.

-According to Storm Prediction Center Annual Killer Tornado Statistics (2016), 962 tornadic deaths have occurred since 2008.  Of those 962 deaths, 62% occurred while the victim was in a home and 50% of those that were killed in a home were in a mobile home.  Some of the most dangerous and damaging tornadoes in the US occur across portions of the Southeast (Gagan, Gerard, & Gordon, 2010).  According to a 2011 American Housing Survey, there are almost three million manufactured homes across the Deep South (Furman, 2012).  A large percentage of these homes do not have safe rooms available, and that presents a huge problem.

-About 35% of manufactured homes are located in parks nationally.

-The growing mobile home tornado problem has received considerable attention from scholars and has led to proposals to mandate installation of tornado shelters in mobile home parks (Simmons & Sutter, 2007b) and promoted the passing of the Federal Tornado Shelters Act, which provides a basis for grant funds in tornado-prone areas (Niederkrotenthaler et al., 2013) that can be used to build community shelters in manufactured mobile home parks.

-According to compiled data from a 2011 American Housing Survey report, 4.5% of Americans live in manufactured housing and in the bottom income quartile that number jumps up to 11.6% (Furman, 2014).  This data is supported by Yarnal and Aman (2009) as they argue that manufactured housing presents an affordable housing solution to owners with significantly lower incomes.  The shortage of available storm shelter options within manufactured housing is clearly a manifestation of resident and homeownerís available income, as they cannot afford the luxury. 

-It has been estimated that more than 25% of people living in manufactured housing subsist only on Social Security benefits (Furman, 2014), and there is reason to theorize that inadequate and unsafe manufactured housing is home to a relatively large number of disabled individuals (Furman, 2014).  The increasing population of elderly and disabled residing in mobile homes is contributing to the numbers of the unfortunate that are killed annually during storm season.  During the April 27, 2011 tornado event, 16.5% of the injured were aged greater than 65 (Niederkrotenthaler et al., 2014).  Between the years 1990 and 2001, data compiled by Merrell et al, (2006) indicates that 595 individuals were killed by tornadoes.  Nearly 50% of those were aged 50 and older.


Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Curt on January 13, 2020, 07:32:11 PM
The more pics I see from Lewisburg/ Olive Branch area, the more I think that was almost an EF3 tornado. Have to admit, my guard is usually down for QLCS spawned tornadoes, but they have wreaked havoc this year around here.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: bugalou on January 13, 2020, 08:22:54 PM
The more pics I see from Lewisburg/ Olive Branch area, the more I think that was almost an EF3 tornado. Have to admit, my guard is usually down for QLCS spawned tornadoes, but they have wreaked havoc this year around here.
Same.  I was up watching the storms and started to notice the hook on it and some large rotation and figured my wx radio would be blaring soon.  Usually my family goes to me on what they do next.  I knew it was QLCS but just due to how close it would be to me I sent everyone into the closet we use for shelter. When I saw a debris ball though I was surprised.  Just not use to these producing like you said.

It will be interesting to see if this is further studied.  I was watching the line ahead of time and it was actually weakening some in Eastern AR along the river and was moving eastward extremely slowly.  Some storms fired ahead of the line and they seemed to draw the rest of the line east.  The tornados happened as these cells all merged and the line accelerated eastward.



Sent from my GM1917 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Hank W on January 14, 2020, 09:50:24 AM
Tornado track overlaid on Google Maps.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1tfYf9IOH9BlFh8swgmstK7qsc2d3dgdV&shorturl=1&ll=34.81566495118048%2C-89.97076204999996&z=11
 (https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1tfYf9IOH9BlFh8swgmstK7qsc2d3dgdV&shorturl=1&ll=34.81566495118048%2C-89.97076204999996&z=11)
This one is a great reminder that it just takes one. We all look at potential of a big time severe weather day and sometimes let that be the judgment factor of how serious of an event it will be. But as James Spann says, if the whole system produces one tornado and it's over your neighborhood it's your April 27th, 2011. Doesn't take a major outbreak to cause devastation over one area.

As I mentioned the other day I was not impressed with local media. When we had the TDS on radar, one station popped it up for a moment, almost seemed confused by it and quickly went back to reflectivity. I flipped through all stations and not one was honed in on the fact that it had become radar confirmed much less showing the CC product. That is a problem. I understand that the Baron Tornado Index is a nice tool, but throwing out a confirmed debris signature in favor of some algorithm that was indicating high numbers on every single cell is ridiculous. Watched a little of KATV Little Rock the day before and some of James Spann and those guys were on top of it.

Glad all were safe other than some poor horses at a barn in Lewisburg.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: bugalou on January 14, 2020, 11:42:41 AM
Tornado track overlaid on Google Maps.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1tfYf9IOH9BlFh8swgmstK7qsc2d3dgdV&shorturl=1&ll=34.81566495118048%2C-89.97076204999996&z=11

This one is a great reminder that it just takes one. We all look at potential of a big time severe weather day and sometimes let that be the judgment factor of how serious of an event it will be. But as James Spann says, if the whole system produces one tornado and it's over your neighborhood it's your April 27th, 2011. Doesn't take a major outbreak to cause devastation over one area.

As I mentioned the other day I was not impressed with local media. When we had the TDS on radar, one station popped it up for a moment, almost seemed confused by it and quickly went back to reflectivity. I flipped through all stations and not one was honed in on the fact that it had become radar confirmed much less showing the CC product. That is a problem. I understand that the Baron Tornado Index is a nice tool, but throwing out a confirmed debris signature in favor of some algorithm that was indicating high numbers on every single cell is ridiculous. Watched a little of KATV Little Rock the day before and some of James Spann and those guys were on top of it.

Glad all were safe other than some poor horses at a barn in Lewisburg.


WREG did a good job.  Austin actually showed the CC product on air and explained it.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Tamlin on January 14, 2020, 10:07:15 PM
I drove through Lewisburg on my way home from work yesterday. Had you too me to rate it based on the damage, I would have said EF3. The neighborhood on the East side of Craft Rd, maybe 200 yards north of the school, looked obliterated to me. I couldn't/didn't drive up into it, but I have no idea how folks survived it based on the view from the street. The newer neighborhoods that sprung up next to the school were missed by about 100 yards. It came across an open field just north of the school, hit that barn with the horses that so many have posted pics of and then just tore through the neighborhood across the road.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2020, 11:41:39 AM
I drove through Lewisburg on my way home from work yesterday. Had you too me to rate it based on the damage, I would have said EF3. The neighborhood on the East side of Craft Rd, maybe 200 yards north of the school, looked obliterated to me. I couldn't/didn't drive up into it, but I have no idea how folks survived it based on the view from the street. The newer neighborhoods that sprung up next to the school were missed by about 100 yards. It came across an open field just north of the school, hit that barn with the horses that so many have posted pics of and then just tore through the neighborhood across the road.

No causalities what so ever.  Probably due to the almost 25 minutes heads up from the NWS. That is the one positive out of all this.
I am that guy who is on the front porch getting soaked watching the mayhem because my lust for weather overrides my better senses.  That said when I heard that distinct roar a tornado has I tucked tail and ran into the closet.  If it was enough to hear from a couple miles away it was a fairly significant tornado.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: bugalou on January 16, 2020, 03:32:55 PM
Has anyone seen the terminal radar data from the DeSoto tornadoes?  I reached out to NWS Memphis on twitter but they didn't have any loops or screenshots handy. I am going to look for it elsewhere, but I figured I'd ask here.
Title: Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
Post by: Hank W on January 18, 2020, 12:56:15 PM
Cool security cam video from Lewisburg. Hard to tell with the lighting, but kind of appears to be multi vortex.
https://www.facebook.com/636540655/posts/10158345858130656?d=n&sfns=mo