Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on December 22, 2019, 09:19:23 AM

Title: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on December 22, 2019, 09:19:23 AM
The long-range GFS and Euro are in different worlds.  Usually what you expect when a pattern change is on the horizon.

To be honest things can go either way.  There is quite a bit of disagreement on both the MJO (some want to go into craptastic Phase Blowtorch Everybody 6) whereas others want to go to 7 and eventually 8 although it will be a low amplitude but still will make some impact.  The biggest impacts come from what happens to the PV.  If it goes to Alaska then it is cold Alaska/NW Canada and mild everyone else.   If it goes to Baffin Bay/Eastern Canada then you could get some blocking around Greenland and potentiall the NE Pacific and it is game on.   

With MJO

Blowtorch phases: 4,5,6

Transition phases: 3,7

Phases you like: 8,1,2

Just like with anything else there are other variables and especially during low amp phases other factors such as EPO, what happens around Alaska, NAO, ENSO, etc. must also be taken into account. 

Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on December 22, 2019, 04:52:50 PM
Weíve been below normal for nearly all of November and a good chunk of December. That warm up we thought might happen earlier was delayed- and now itís here. Itís going to be warm for about a week starting tomorrow before it progressively cools off again after the first of the year. There is a massive amount of cold air building in central Alaska and NW Canada- nearly 50 to 70 below. Thatís going to go south at some point. Until then - Merry Christmas!
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on December 22, 2019, 06:33:29 PM
[attachimg=1]

A very low confidence call.  A lot will depend on where the Polar Vortex sets up.  If it goes over Alaska and pumps up the +EPO then there will be no significant below average areas except for Alaska/NW Canada.  If it goes to Siberia we probably deal with just cold enough air and average conditions. If it goes to the Baffin Bay area then I am too warm.

This is pretty much the middle call.  A mix of January 2004, 2007, and 2015. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 22, 2019, 06:39:32 PM
Weíve been below normal for nearly all of November and a good chunk of December. That warm up we thought might happen earlier was delayed- and now itís here. Itís going to be warm for about a week starting tomorrow before it progressively cools off again after the first of the year. There is a massive amount of cold air building in central Alaska and NW Canada- nearly 50 to 70 below. Thatís going to go south at some point. Until then - Merry Christmas!
question is as always, how far south does it penetrate. vs going east. good chance most of the cold air will just sweep across Canada from west to east... especially if we cant build a fairly steep ridge out west... from my past experiences of weather I have seen doesn't guarantee most of much of the artic air will dump south... now long range models r starting to pick up above average temps through first week January... as steven said, this is pretty much up in the air... got a lot of model watching to do see what trends ::coffee::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Thundersnow on December 23, 2019, 05:04:46 PM
Admin note- after some discussion among the team, we are going to make a slight topic organization change. Rather than the traditional "season" threads that we have always done (such as Winter 2019-2020), we are going to try a "monthly" approach to threads. We feel this will make more sense to discuss things by month rather than continue in an ever-growing season thread, which can get quite long and harder to search in.

From this point forward, please discuss anything pertaining to weather after January 1, 2020 in this thread. For any remaining discussion about weather in December, please discuss that in the December 2019 thread:

https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,3910.msg240201/topicseen.html#new
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 24, 2019, 05:32:57 AM
Day 10 on the 0z euro... well we see.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on December 24, 2019, 11:01:40 AM
LR trends aint our friends. MJO, AO, PNA, NAO, and EPO all headed in the wrong direction for the New Year. The good news is its early and the factors that held them in place last year aren't near as prevalent. The polar vortex is too strong right now and wont let go. There should be plenty of time for disruption. If we are talking all of these factors come Jan 31...well then that's a different story.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 24, 2019, 11:13:33 AM
LR trends aint our friends. MJO, AO, PNA, NAO, and EPO all headed in the wrong direction for the New Year. The good news is its early and the factors that held them in place last year aren't near as prevalent. The polar vortex is too strong right now and wont let go. There should be plenty of time for disruption. If we are talking all of these factors come Jan 31...well then that's a different story.
yeah a major red flag 🚩 for sure
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on December 24, 2019, 11:18:01 AM
yeah a major red flag 🚩 for sure

I'm a little shocked it only took you 12 minutes to respond.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 24, 2019, 11:21:52 AM
I'm a little shocked it only took you 12 minutes to respond.
actually was fixing post that ... disappointed I am actually ... ready for a good ⛄️
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on December 24, 2019, 02:38:37 PM
That pattern does appear to get better after the first week of January. Itís LR so lets see. Would like to see the PV not get wrapped so tight though. That reminds me of that relentless 2011-2012 winter.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on December 24, 2019, 03:10:43 PM
With 70s on Christmas, Old Man Winter owes us snow lovers a good January and February.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on December 24, 2019, 04:02:50 PM
That pattern does appear to get better after the first week of January. Itís LR so lets see. Would like to see the PV not get wrapped so tight though. That reminds me of that relentless 2011-2012 winter.

There were some trends that the PV gets broken down fairly quickly.  That is just one set of model runs and I imagine we will see some more craptastic ones as well that remind us of 2011-12, which I consider to be the worst winter of all-time generally. 

The chances of a White New Years are even worse than a White Christmas with 2001 being the last time any of us saw that.   Even Evansville, IN has only recorded a white New Years 4% of the time.   Of course we won't see one this winter either. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on December 24, 2019, 07:11:38 PM
There were some trends that the PV gets broken down fairly quickly.  That is just one set of model runs and I imagine we will see some more craptastic ones as well that remind us of 2011-12, which I consider to be the worst winter of all-time generally. 

The chances of a White New Years are even worse than a White Christmas with 2001 being the last time any of us saw that.   Even Evansville, IN has only recorded a white New Years 4% of the time.   Of course we won't see one this winter either.

Due to low solar forcing currently, I'd wager on a breakdown of the PV.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on December 25, 2019, 08:22:14 AM
A fantasy range storm on Jan 8th would hit the entire state with a low tracking the preferred Texarkana to Tupelo track.  Cant wait to watch this fall apart as medium range models are in scope
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on December 26, 2019, 02:00:00 PM
MJO phase's 4-6, a potential record-setting +AO, +NAO (I guess the whole October -NAO thing is something we can throw out the window just like the October Siberia snowcover  and the Wolly Worms), and a -SOI equaling a more La-Nina like state.   

Add to that the PV over Alaska and we have a pretty unfavorable first 10-15 days of January setting up if you are a winter fan. 

One could still score but it would require a February 2002 style of threading the needle between the temporary cold shots and subtropical jet impulses.  The good thing about having a pretty progressive pattern is that you could line things up just right if you are lucky.   

Not all hope is lost we will get to store up quite a bit of cold air up to our north and if the MJO doesn't park in Phases 5 and 6 then one could become optimistic about our chances at times between MLK day into February or perhaps even in the early Spring.   

What could happen on the opposite and dreadful side is that we have a repeat of 2011-12 due to strong PV at the poles, hanging around in MJO 4-6 too long, or have a sustained -PNA/ninaish pattern, but then we tap into that arctic air in late March-April.  That would be the hallmark of a devastating freeze event.

We are either going to go the 1959-60, 2006-07 or 2014-15 way and have a backloaded winter or go the 2001-02, 2011-12, 2016-17, or 2018-19 way and have a dud.  We will likely find out by Jan 31st where we are heading.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 26, 2019, 02:03:56 PM
Iím beginning like our chances Of some severe weather  this winter with those teleconnections ... pattern actually behaving like a NiŮa be honest
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: mamMATTus on December 26, 2019, 06:25:24 PM
The forecast is really starting to worry me for those of us going to see the Preds in Dallas on NYD. I've got a lot of money invested in this and I really hope the rain can hold off until late afternoon/early evening.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on December 26, 2019, 08:10:41 PM
If you are into winter sports the winner here and in the upcoming pattern are resorts in the Desert SW and Four Corners region.   That is the only area outside of Alaska that has the best shot at consistent below-average temperatures through January 10th.

Post Merge: December 26, 2019, 08:21:21 PM
The last January to average a -PNA was 2008.

Interestingly enough we actually had a few minor threats during that month despite a strong +NAO,+AO. I-44/Southeast Missouri over towards the Ohio River and points north did decent. There was even a minor event in Southern Middle TN that month.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Mr. Golf on December 26, 2019, 10:42:00 PM
It's interesting whats going on in the pattern with unfavorable teleconnections. The soi has dropped off dramatically since monday. Imo, it should lead to a stormy, potentially cold pattern later. We are definitely in the warm phases of mjo. If the mjo dont get free from them, we are screwed blewed and tattooed. I guess we never should root for any weak niŮo. I actually thought niŮos focus in the more niŮo phases of 8 1 and 2, but dont look that way.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on December 27, 2019, 08:35:44 AM
Good Twitter thread with pics from BAMWx. Looks like we are punting the last 10 days of Dec and first 15 of January. Not real happy about it, but what can you do.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1210551940406489088 (https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1210551940406489088)

Quote
For now over the next 15 days which will be the first half of JAN its full on torch expected with only intermittent shots of cold air. You can spin it anyway you want this is not a cold pattern and there's ZERO blocking. Bottom line: Until the NAM state changes and the SOURCE of cold comes back into a favorable position you will not get durable cold in the central/eastern US it just will not happen. Look at the last 5 years friends.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2019, 08:50:55 AM
This winter arrives mid Marchand runs to mid April , then it will be off to summer ... thatís bout how it will play out  lol
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on December 27, 2019, 11:20:03 AM
I just hate it when it takes so long for winter to really begin....quite annoying
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clay on December 27, 2019, 02:09:38 PM
I'm not that worried. Yes, it's mild but these patterns take 4-6 weeks to cycle through. We set record lows back in November.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 27, 2019, 02:51:32 PM
I'm not that worried. Yes, it's mild but these patterns take 4-6 weeks to cycle through. We set record lows back in November.
negative pna holding  still...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on December 27, 2019, 03:22:18 PM
It's interesting whats going on in the pattern with unfavorable teleconnections. The soi has dropped off dramatically since monday. Imo, it should lead to a stormy, potentially cold pattern later. We are definitely in the warm phases of mjo. If the mjo dont get free from them, we are screwed blewed and tattooed. I guess we never should root for any weak niŮo. I actually thought niŮos focus in the more niŮo phases of 8 1 and 2, but dont look that way.

This is a Warm Neutral borderline Nino but not an official El-Nino. 

I wasn't aware that there was a big link between the MJO and ENSO 

I do agree that we are in an unfavorable pattern for the long run.  The only areas that will do decent would be higher elevations in the Southwest.  If we can score a -EPO later on then things may gradually become more favorable in in late January-February when we should (keyword should) also be in a more favorable MJO phase.     
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on December 27, 2019, 04:31:16 PM
I'm not that worried. Yes, it's mild but these patterns take 4-6 weeks to cycle through. We set record lows back in November.

I hate losing the period Dec 20-Jan 20. It's our prime cold period with lowest sun angle. Seems recently we've rarely cashed in during this period as our winter weather seems more backloaded.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on December 27, 2019, 04:45:29 PM
I hate losing the period Dec 20-Jan 20. It's our prime cold period with lowest sun angle. Seems recently we've rarely cashed in during this period as our winter weather seems more backloaded.

agreed by late jan on average temps start rising again and daylight hangs around longer....hopefully mid jan pans out
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: mempho on December 27, 2019, 10:11:59 PM
I hate losing the period Dec 20-Jan 20. It's our prime cold period with lowest sun angle. Seems recently we've rarely cashed in during this period as our winter weather seems more backloaded.
Yes, we just have so much sun after that.  It seems late December thru January is just so important.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on December 28, 2019, 09:12:45 AM
Snowcover with enough cold air typically last the longest in Dec to Early February. Unless you have Top 10 cold(March 1960 or Feb 2015) or major sleet to encase the snow (March 2014) snow after Valentine's day doesn't seem to stick around.

It should be noted that especially here recently that winter storms prior to Jan 15th are a bit rare.  Only 3 to 4% of all New Years had snow.

Outside of recent November's only December 09 and 10 and the early January 2011 big dogs are the only events I recall since 2005.

Post Merge: December 28, 2019, 01:10:40 PM
Look the latest Euro is trying to dangle a carrot in front of the faces of the poor.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on December 28, 2019, 06:55:59 PM
Snowcover with enough cold air typically last the longest in Dec to Early February. Unless you have Top 10 cold(March 1960 or Feb 2015) or major sleet to encase the snow (March 2014) snow after Valentine's day doesn't seem to stick around.

It should be noted that especially here recently that winter storms prior to Jan 15th are a bit rare.  Only 3 to 4% of all New Years had snow.

Outside of recent November's only December 09 and 10 and the early January 2011 big dogs are the only events I recall since 2005.

Post Merge: December 28, 2019, 01:10:40 PM
Look the latest Euro is trying to dangle a carrot in front of the faces of the poor.

problem is past 15 years ,snows have not been common before OR after January lol!!!
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on December 28, 2019, 09:07:06 PM
So L.A. and most of Southern California got some pretty good snowfall today while we have been in the mid to upper 60s.  That is just crazy!  Mother Nature is really confused right now. 🤪🤪🤪🤪
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 29, 2019, 03:41:58 AM
Seems models starting to agree on winter making a appearance around second week January ... there is some ensemble support of the nao and perhaps ao turning negative... look for a storm system also around that timeframe , could be or first winter storm to track ...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on December 29, 2019, 08:15:21 AM
Seems models starting to agree on winter making a appearance around second week January ... there is some ensemble support of the nao and perhaps ao turning negative... look for a storm system also around that timeframe , could be or first winter storm to track ...

I noticed this too, Bruce. Let's hope it happens!

Meanwhile, I'm totally okay with wearing shorts on my runs
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Susan on December 30, 2019, 10:20:11 PM
I donít know the statistics but as an old Nashville area native, yíall seem to bailing on our winter way too early.  I have always considered our ďsnow timeĒ to be the last two weeks of January and first two weeks of February. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on December 30, 2019, 10:45:30 PM
Well if itís not gonna snow I agree give me warm temps to ease the heating bill.  Also some dry wx would be nice.  Flooding is gonna become an issue even greater if donít.  More heavy rain on Thursday.  One met said looks like if go by models. Out to hour 384 he counted 5 systems with another on its heals.  Now of course fantasy rain storms but still the active pattern looks to continue.  Only problem is itís rain!
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2019, 04:20:17 AM
Well if itís not gonna snow I agree give me warm temps to ease the heating bill.  Also some dry wx would be nice.  Flooding is gonna become an issue even greater if donít.  More heavy rain on Thursday.  One met said looks like if go by models. Out to hour 384 he counted 5 systems with another on its heals.  Now of course fantasy rain storms but still the active pattern looks to continue.  Only problem is itís rain!
what elnino Enso is good for, just a bunch of rain it seems...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on December 31, 2019, 08:26:01 AM
I donít know the statistics but as an old Nashville area native, yíall seem to bailing on our winter way too early.  I have always considered our ďsnow timeĒ to be the last two weeks of January and first two weeks of February.

mid jan to early feb is prime time...BUT my worry is that it is already December 31st and we have not had any real extended cold shots yet (4-5 days) . I feel like it has been this way the past 3 years , it takes too long to get any real cold air going and then it's too late when it finally starts arriving :(
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2019, 08:31:09 AM
mid jan to early feb is prime time...BUT my worry is that it is already December 31st and we have not had any real extended cold shots yet (4-5 days) . I feel like it has been this way the past 3 years , it takes too long to get any real cold air going and then it's too late when it finally starts arriving :(
yeah and still no signs in long range either ... and thus far itís been right unfortunately...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: mempho on December 31, 2019, 08:40:19 AM
mid jan to early feb is prime time...BUT my worry is that it is already December 31st and we have not had any real extended cold shots yet (4-5 days) . I feel like it has been this way the past 3 years , it takes too long to get any real cold air going and then it's too late when it finally starts arriving :(
It is NYE and  I just went out to 384 on the GFS (1/15) and there's not even a hint of frozen precip in sight.  That's relatively rare to not see even a single frame of SN, FRZN, or PL at this time of year...

Furthermore, the coldest minimum temp I see on the whole run is 27 (and the warmest is 65).   This is a full zonal flow winter ala 2011-2012 going on thusfar. 

The polar vortex must be closed for business for a while. That will likely either mean a 2011-12 repeat (where Eurasia got the massive cold dump after the "superchilled" PV broke down) - OR- we get in on the action on the North American side this time- which would put record-breaking cold somewhere in the US.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on December 31, 2019, 09:11:22 AM
It is NYE and  I just went out to 384 on the GFS (1/15) and there's not even a hint of frozen precip in sight.  That's relatively rare to not see even a single frame of SN, FRZN, or PL at this time of year...

Furthermore, the coldest minimum temp I see on the whole run is 27 (and the warmest is 65).   This is a full zonal flow winter ala 2011-2012 going on thusfar. 

The polar vortex must be closed for business for a while. That will likely either mean a 2011-12 repeat (where Eurasia got the massive cold dump after the "superchilled" PV broke down) - OR- we get in on the action on the North American side this time- which would put record-breaking cold somewhere in the US.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

The good news is the cold air has been on this side of the globe. Letís see what happens when the MJO collapses. The AAM is moving into favorable phases as well. Gotta get through the warm up after the coming cold spell. I think this sums it up nicely.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191231/1f014b8339c6ef0ab3610414aef300c3.jpg)

Some of you need to go back and look at the Tennessee winters of the 1920ís through the 1950ís on the NCDC website. Those winters are similar to the last 20 years or so. There a really decent event every now and then but wow at the warm winters of the 1930ís.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/cd/cd.html
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on December 31, 2019, 10:02:40 AM
It is NYE and  I just went out to 384 on the GFS (1/15) and there's not even a hint of frozen precip in sight.  That's relatively rare to not see even a single frame of SN, FRZN, or PL at this time of year...

Furthermore, the coldest minimum temp I see on the whole run is 27 (and the warmest is 65).   This is a full zonal flow winter ala 2011-2012 going on thusfar. 

The polar vortex must be closed for business for a while. That will likely either mean a 2011-12 repeat (where Eurasia got the massive cold dump after the "superchilled" PV broke down) - OR- we get in on the action on the North American side this time- which would put record-breaking cold somewhere in the US.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

local mets are making me laugh lately...."it will get cold after this front passes"....um no it's not, it's just back to average....I can only remember one REAL cold snap and that was in late nov for two days.

Winters here are just horrible now....it's getting hard to just keep AVERAGE temps , let alone anything below average to bring snow chances
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2019, 10:39:31 AM
We are just playing kick the ole can down the road tune again.. get to the can nothing happens ... letís kick it some more .
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on December 31, 2019, 10:45:19 AM
We are just playing kick the ole can down the road tune again.. get to the can nothing happens ... letís kick it some more .

We had plenty of arctic air this season. How quickly you forget. Patterns change requires patience and foresight. Sometimes they donít happen ala 2019 and sometimes they happen with dramatic changes. Complaining every day that your backyard hasnít had snow wonít help.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2019, 10:46:45 AM
The good news is the cold air has been on this side of the globe. Letís see what happens when the MJO collapses. The AAM is moving into favorable phases as well. Gotta get through the warm up after the coming cold spell. I think this sums it up nicely.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191231/1f014b8339c6ef0ab3610414aef300c3.jpg)

Some of you need to go back and look at the Tennessee winters of the 1920ís through the 1950ís on the NCDC website. Those winters are similar to the last 20 years or so. There a really decent event every now and then but wow at the warm winters of the 1930ís.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/cd/cd.html
yeah but even back then like 30s and what... warmer winter always found away to get a good winter storm each year ... these days we just about go snowless unless you count flizzards ...

Post Merge: December 31, 2019, 10:49:23 AM
We had plenty of arctic air this season. How quickly you forget. Patterns change requires patience and foresight. Sometimes they donít happen ala 2019 and sometimes they happen with dramatic changes. Complaining every day that your backyard hasnít had snow wonít help.
agree with u 100 percent curt... but it gets frustrating to be honest .. nothing we can do about it what so ever... just got keep plugging away n hope things change drastically in the pacific... thatís the big culprit there.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on December 31, 2019, 11:03:05 AM
yeah but even back then like 30s and what... warmer winter always found away to get a good winter storm each year ... these days we just about go snowless unless you count flizzards ...

Post Merge: December 31, 2019, 10:49:23 AM
agree with u 100 percent curt... but it gets frustrating to be honest .. nothing we can do about it what so ever... just got keep plugging away n hope things change drastically in the pacific... thatís the big culprit there.


Did you ACTUALLY look at those winters? Many were snowless. The dust bowl was brutal for those 10 years which didnít help.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2019, 11:07:26 AM

Did you ACTUALLY look at those winters? Many were snowless. The dust bowl was brutal for those 10 years which didnít help.
remember my great grandmother talking bout those days like it was yesterday ... said one year the Mississippi River froze down this way...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on December 31, 2019, 11:11:30 AM
We had plenty of arctic air this season. How quickly you forget. Patterns change requires patience and foresight. Sometimes they donít happen ala 2019 and sometimes they happen with dramatic changes. Complaining every day that your backyard hasnít had snow wonít help.

idk curt....I think that depends on your point of view...to me arctic air is high's in mid 20's and lows single digits and low teens....that has not happened much this season...I think I have had four nights in the teens scattered throughout Ö. to me artic air hangs around longer than the one or two day cold snaps we have had...but that's just me :)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on December 31, 2019, 11:16:07 AM
remember my great grandmother talking bout those days like it was yesterday ... said one year the Mississippi River froze down this way...

The MS River froze over in the winter of 39-40. The winters preceding it 36/37, 37/38, and 38/39 were incredibly warm and snowless outside the higher elevations of the state. The winter of 39/40 had a 3 week period of brutal cold and snow. Most of the 1940's with a couple of exceptions were nothing to write home about either. In fact, minus the epic ice and snow of 1951 for west and middle, and Knoxville's heaviest snowfall on record in Nov 1952- the 50's sucked. Then came the 60's/70's/and 80's and subsequent increase in snowfall and more frequent arctic outbreaks.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on December 31, 2019, 11:26:06 AM
too bad the 1963 new years eve storm is not repeating itself again.....would LOVE to see something like that snowfall accumulation map nowadays :)...a widespread 8-12 inch snowfall and s/w mid tn getting 12-16 inches of snow :)

I have always hoped for a s/w to north northeast moving low with cold air in place to get accumulations like that on the north side and wrap around....maybe one day it will happen again :)

Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2019, 11:33:08 AM
too bad the 1963 new years eve storm is not repeating itself again.....would LOVE to see something like that snowfall accumulation map nowadays :)...a widespread 8-12 inch snowfall and s/w mid tn getting 12-16 inches of snow :)

I have always hoped for a s/w to north northeast moving low with cold air in place to get accumulations like that on the north side and wrap around....maybe one day it will happen again :)
the winters of 1962 and 1963 were just pure  brutal ... I was a baby amongst that area ... mom and daddy always told
Me some horror stories bout times I got sick and liked no made it to the hospital due to extreme cold
And deep snow on ground

Post Merge: December 31, 2019, 11:37:32 AM
too bad the 1963 new years eve storm is not repeating itself again.....would LOVE to see something like that snowfall accumulation map nowadays :)...a widespread 8-12 inch snowfall and s/w mid tn getting 12-16 inches of snow :)

I have always hoped for a s/w to north northeast moving low with cold air in place to get accumulations like that on the north side and wrap around....maybe one day it will happen again :)
o the good ole wrap around snow systems ... they were fun... watch the rain turn into big wet snow flakes gradually and get colder than start to accumulate ... I miss the good ole clippers we used to get ... got get into a good nw flow pattern there
Title: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on December 31, 2019, 11:37:38 AM
The AMO flipped in the late 50ís ó> snowier and colder with winters along with a negative PDO. Itís hard to find a winter from 1960 to 1988 that didnít perform well.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on December 31, 2019, 12:13:27 PM
the winters of 1962 and 1963 were just pure  brutal ... I was a baby amongst that area ... mom and daddy always told
Me some horror stories bout times I got sick and liked no made it to the hospital due to extreme cold
And deep snow on ground

Post Merge: December 31, 2019, 11:37:32 AM
o the good ole wrap around snow systems ... they were fun... watch the rain turn into big wet snow flakes gradually and get colder than start to accumulate ... I miss the good ole clippers we used to get ... got get into a good nw flow pattern there

I was in my home state of New Jersey for Christmas I am pretty sure in 2002?

Christmas around noon time we had a low pressure mini nor' easter form around cape may nj and just rode the jersey shore and gave us a quick 8-10 inch wrap around wet snow on Christmas day. Then we wen to NYC the next day( yeah they actually can clean the streets fast up there lol ) and I gotta say , heavy snow in central park is just wonderful to see.

But back to the point a real wrap around low with a lot of moisture can dump the snow down FAST since the bands just train over you from northeast to southwest...I remember a few ULL's doing that to us here in the mid state in the 2000's
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on December 31, 2019, 01:23:41 PM
idk curt....I think that depends on your point of view...to me arctic air is high's in mid 20's and lows single digits and low teens....that has not happened much this season...I think I have had four nights in the teens scattered throughout Ö. to me artic air hangs around longer than the one or two day cold snaps we have had...but that's just me :)

But remember brutal arctic air can suppress moisture.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2019, 01:33:21 PM
But remember brutal arctic air can suppress moisture.
very true... but best case scenario is to get a big winter storm then come the brutal artic air behind the system .. thatís how u get the foundation for a good ole winter like we used to get ...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: mempho on December 31, 2019, 01:53:18 PM


The good news is the cold air has been on this side of the globe. Letís see what happens when the MJO collapses. The AAM is moving into favorable phases as well. Gotta get through the warm up after the coming cold spell. I think this sums it up nicely.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191231/1f014b8339c6ef0ab3610414aef300c3.jpg)


Do you have a decent map showing this anomalously cold air on our side of the globe?  Also, is there anything preventing it from escaping via some cross-polar flow?






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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: mempho on December 31, 2019, 01:55:00 PM
The AMO flipped in the late 50ís ó> snowier and colder with winters along with a negative PDO. Itís hard to find a winter from 1960 to 1988 that didnít perform well.
We've been waiting on it to flip back ever since this forum started.  When does this happen?

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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on December 31, 2019, 02:01:57 PM
I honestly do not understand all the complaining about this winter. What good does it do?  And when Curt and others dig hard to find a hopeful glance of winter weather then so many doubt it or find a way to shoot holes in it.  And honestly if it isnít going to be brutally cold or snow then I am fine with mild temps. I love being outdoors so bring on the sun and 60s.  Much rather have that than cold a## rain.  ;)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2019, 02:05:55 PM
I honestly do not understand all the complaining about this winter. What good does it do?  And when Curt and others dig hard to find a hopeful glance of winter weather then so many doubt it or find a way to shoot holes in it.  And honestly if it isnít going to be brutally cold or snow then I am fine with mild temps. I love being outdoors so bring on the sun and 60s.  Much rather have that than cold a## rain.  ;)
yes. It is what it is
Title: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on December 31, 2019, 02:08:01 PM


Do you have a decent map showing this anomalously cold air on our side of the globe?  Also, is there anything preventing it from escaping via some cross-polar flow?






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Hereís todayís GEFS 2M temp anomaly for day 15- nearing 40 below normal in Canada in January. The euro ensemble mean looks about  same. The euro control has a huge push southeast. Give me a SER and a southeastward moving arctic air mass any day.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191231/1589b91b14669b38b82a51bd9d8e489f.jpg)

We need high pressure to build northeast across Alaska which in turn creates the neutral to negative EPO. When the MJO collapses or rotates past the maritimes (4-6), a better chance of tapping into that arctic air happens. We donít have to have a SSW to get cold down here.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on December 31, 2019, 02:08:54 PM


Do you have a decent map showing this anomalously cold air on our side of the globe?  Also, is there anything preventing it from escaping via some cross-polar flow?






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we have got to develop ridge out west and like see it fairly tall one at that... pacific is flooding us with mild pacific air... anyone see our negative nao anywhere ? Lol

Post Merge: December 31, 2019, 02:11:48 PM
We need some blocking curt ... correct
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on December 31, 2019, 02:40:47 PM
We've been waiting on it to flip back ever since this forum started.  When does this happen?

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It flipped in the mid 90ís and runs on 20-30 year cycles. Itís thought that we are nearing the end of this cycle esp when you see drops like we did in 2017. Perhaps it was the precursor. The transition period has ups and downs until it fully transitions- then there is no question. Youíre stuck for quite some time.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191231/eaf540ea6075d7dab325cc22eef65e99.jpg)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 01, 2020, 12:05:03 AM
Happy new year everyone ....
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cgauxknox on January 01, 2020, 06:58:40 AM
Looks like we're starting the new year with an almost statewide flood watch. Everybody stay safe out there as it comes in tomorrow!
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on January 01, 2020, 07:37:24 AM
Happy New Year! I am Thankful for all of our members here.  Thanks for all the explanations and keeping us informed on our weather. I have been in this group over 10 yrs now and it will always be my favorite group.  Enjoy this New Year and treasure your family every day. 🎊🎉❤️🙏🏻
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 01, 2020, 09:00:02 AM
Happy New Year to everyone may it be a blessed one and may we actually have a Fab Feb that verifies. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 01, 2020, 09:09:55 AM
Happy New Year to everyone may it be a blessed one and may we actually have a Fab Feb that verifies.
February? lol... doubt mother nature knows when we flip the calendar to the next month... this pattern seems very relentless... >:(
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: dwagner88 on January 01, 2020, 10:54:01 AM
Happy new year everyone! We begin 2020 in Hamilton county already under a preemptive flood warning for the coming rain event. I ended 2019 with 76.12Ē of rain. 2020 also begins with a wet pattern.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 01, 2020, 04:13:52 PM
Till about January 20ish at least

The long-range is not only warmer than average, but with a stout SE Ridge (thanks -PNA, unusually warm ocean temps, and MJO Phases 4-6) and rich subtropical jet it will support a pattern that is favorable for multiple rain events some of which could be heavy.  My river flood sensors are in full effect.  In matter of fact this January 2020 has a lot in common with February 2019 and January 2007 both which featured a heavy rain event somewhere in the Miss River/Lower Ohio River Valley area. 

Severe weather events are also possible in this pattern although they will likely have to overcome poor to mediocre lapse rates and therefore instability due to the influence of the subtropical jet. 


Switching to the long-range.

Will we flip the pattern between January 21st and St. Patrick's Day?  The chances are about 50/50%.  I would think our PV would weaken by the end of January but cold in KY/TN/N MS etc. it will come down to 3 things.

PNA, NPO (pretty much is there a LP or HP off the west coast of Alaska), and MJO.  If it is January 30th/31st and we are looking at the models and see the MJO spinning like a 90s helicopter decoration around MJO phases 4,5,6 and a high-pressure system off the west-coast of Alaska then we can make like a Dallas Cowboys fan and wait till next year.  If we can get a +PNA, the HP is off the coast of the Pacific NW, and MJO is either in COD (the circle) or phases 7,8,1, and 2 in Late January-Early February then we can salvage that.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 01, 2020, 04:28:00 PM
Till about January 20ish at least

The long-range is not only warmer than average, but with a stout SE Ridge (thanks -PNA, unusually warm ocean temps, and MJO Phases 4-6) and rich subtropical jet it will support a pattern that is favorable for multiple rain events some of which could be heavy.  My river flood sensors are in full effect.  In matter of fact this January 2020 has a lot in common with February 2019 and January 2007 both which featured a heavy rain event somewhere in the Miss River/Lower Ohio River Valley area. 

Severe weather events are also possible in this pattern although they will likely have to overcome poor to mediocre lapse rates and therefore instability due to the influence of the subtropical jet. 


Switching to the long-range.

Will we flip the pattern between January 21st and St. Patrick's Day?  The chances are about 50/50%.  I would think our PV would weaken by the end of January but cold in KY/TN/N MS etc. it will come down to 3 things.

PNA, NPO (pretty much is there a LP or HP off the west coast of Alaska), and MJO.  If it is January 30th/31st and we are looking at the models and see the MJO spinning like a 90s helicopter decoration around MJO phases 4,5,6 and a high-pressure system off the west-coast of Alaska then we can make like a Dallas Cowboys fan and wait till next year.  If we can get a +PNA, the HP is off the coast of the Pacific NW, and MJO is either in COD (the circle) or phases 7,8,1, and 2 in Late January-Early February then we can salvage that.
like I said earlier and over again... elninos arenít good for nothing but rain ... to much sub tropical influence
Title: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 01, 2020, 05:11:52 PM
There is a ton of cold air available this year unlike last year. Western and central Canada will be nearly 40 degrees below normal by the end of the model runs. If we can get the MJO out if the maritimes, and it should as Steven pointed out in the last 10 days of January- I could easily see a scenario with cold air pushing against the SER which usually means a battle zone with ice.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 01, 2020, 05:46:43 PM
If and itís a big if still the pattern does change ... it be more than likely early February before we feel the effects of the change... cause usually have a lapse time period of approximately two weeks ...  so hopefully  by end next week ... long range should start to look better ...  be interesting see how models react to a potential change
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Vols1 on January 01, 2020, 08:14:42 PM
Any chance of a little surprise Saturday with the ULL?
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Cody on January 01, 2020, 11:10:53 PM
1 low temp below freezing for the next 10 days. Whatís happening?


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: mempho on January 02, 2020, 06:16:13 AM
Congrats Mexico, South Texas, Lake Charles, Panama City, and Tallahassee.

Look at it this way--at least we get as much as Philly/DC/Baltimore. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200102/10e95af719a345625cf0c2ecb317408a.jpg)

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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 02, 2020, 07:11:05 AM
1 low temp below freezing for the next 10 days. Whatís happening?


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i know... but I really donít want to go there . Lol
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on January 02, 2020, 08:21:35 AM
Folks should keep an eye on next weekend for severe weather. What an odd weather pattern for winter.......
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 02, 2020, 08:22:41 AM
Folks should keep an eye on next weekend for severe weather. What an odd weather pattern for winter.......
if we can get the sub jet to relax just bit ... could be game on... we see
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 02, 2020, 08:34:45 AM
gotta love Tennessee.....you can get ALL the cold rains you want in winter time, followed by above average temps for the majority of the season lol. I actually don't mind the fact that Dec and early Jan are going to be 6 weeks of wasted meteorological winter....since it has already been so bad , I am not hoping for much at all this year since the past 2 years have killed my winter precip hopes and no pattern change in near sight and the fact that soon we will be having more daylight....the odds are shrinking

Anything that comes in the next few weeks winter precip - wise will just be an unexpected surprise for me :)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 02, 2020, 08:42:19 AM
gotta love Tennessee.....you can get ALL the cold rains you want in winter time, followed by above average temps for the majority of the season lol. I actually don't mind the fact that Dec and early Jan are going to be 6 weeks of wasted meteorological winter....since it has already been so bad , I am not hoping for much at all this year since the past 2 years have killed my winter precip hopes and no pattern change in near sight and the fact that soon we will be having more daylight....the odds are shrinking

Anything that comes in the next few weeks winter precip - wise will just be an unexpected surprise for me :)
no worries man... the gfs has us getting close 10 inches rain over next two weeks ... drown our sorrows with that . Lol
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 02, 2020, 09:00:26 AM
no worries man... the gfs has us getting close 10 inches rain over next two weeks ... drown our sorrows with that . Lol

LOL...Ö.I just cannot ever remember snowfall being such a rarity as it is now Ö. when I was a kid we got 2 or 3 good snow events every year....it's been since 2015 now since I last saw JUST 2 or more inches of snow....that's pretty pathetic
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Thundersnow on January 02, 2020, 11:01:51 AM
The general mood among watchers of the LR for the eastern US is not great right now, for winter weather fans, that is.

I remember back in the day (10+ years ago), when everyone would hop on to see the 0Z GFS come out, anxiously awaiting frame by frame. I did that myself. There were usually fantasy storms with cold shots, a suppressed look, etc... not that big storms came to fruition all that often. But, the excitement just doesn't seem to be there anymore. Maybe models have improved. Maybe, the weather, indices, climate, whatever you want to attribute it to, has changed, and maybe it will change again. Maybe, I'm just getting old. I expect the rest of the annual "cool" season to play out blandly as usual and not expect much, while we carry on with life. In the mean time, watch out for flooding over the next couple of days.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 02, 2020, 11:09:35 AM
I felt like I was looking at January 1999 in that latest GFS with the active northern stream.   

Not saying that the events of that month will exactly plan out, but I do expect us to have both flooding and severe weather threats as we go through January.

One of the CPC analogs is January 2002 which featured a major flooding event similar to last year across the state.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 02, 2020, 11:11:13 AM
The general mood among watchers of the LR for the eastern US is not great right now, for winter weather fans, that is.

I remember back in the day (10+ years ago), when everyone would hop on to see the 0Z GFS come out, anxiously awaiting frame by frame. I did that myself. There were usually fantasy storms with cold shots, a suppressed look, etc... not that big storms came to fruition all that often. But, the excitement just doesn't seem to be there anymore. Maybe models have improved. Maybe, the weather, indices, climate, whatever you want to attribute it to, has changed, and maybe it will change again. Maybe, I'm just getting old. I expect the rest of the annual "cool" season to play out blandly as usual and not expect much, while we carry on with life. In the mean time, watch out for flooding over the next couple of days.

agreed...something has changed to where now It really is a rare thing to get real extended cold or decent snowfall amounts . I think it is more on a every 5-7 year type of cycle now....what people consider cold now is just average temperatures....and we get excited over even a half inch of snow nowadays Ö. how things have changed

Post Merge: January 02, 2020, 11:11:56 AM
I felt like I was looking at January 1999 in that latest GFS with the active northern stream.   

Not saying that the events of that month will exactly plan out, but I do expect us to have both flooding and severe weather threats as we go through January.

One of the CPC analogs is January 2002 which featured a major flooding event similar to last year across the state.

I remember that January of 1999 the day of the Clarksville tornado there was also big floods in my area in s/w mid tn
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 02, 2020, 11:13:55 AM
Nashville WX if you are here or you are a poster into winter sports go ahead and book a flight to Seattle now for the 2nd and/or 3rd week of Janaury. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on January 02, 2020, 11:47:45 AM
And then you have this desperate person at the NWS who is determined to see a snow flake. 
(Dicksonís Saturday Forecast)
A chance of rain before noon, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 02, 2020, 03:45:31 PM
I felt like I was looking at January 1999 in that latest GFS with the active northern stream.   

Not saying that the events of that month will exactly plan out, but I do expect us to have both flooding and severe weather threats as we go through January.

One of the CPC analogs is January 2002 which featured a major flooding event similar to last year across the state.

I agree with these.  I have been looking at models and it spells flooding and severe wx possibly.  Rain and more rain is a definite.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 02, 2020, 05:48:07 PM
Sure are missing some golden opportunities with the storm track. One after the other on GFS.

[attachimg=2]
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: mempho on January 03, 2020, 04:52:09 AM
Sure are missing some golden opportunities with the storm track. One after the other on GFS.

(Attachment Link)
Yes, but that storm track is based on the firehose pattern we're in.  I don't get too worked up over that.  Now, cold pattern storms outside our meteorological window for heavy snow (such as catching significant backside cold rain in November and April) are certainly ones where I think about opportunities...



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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: mempho on January 03, 2020, 04:54:38 AM
So, according to this guy, maybe we're perma-screwed (if you read between the lines)...permanently long summers, transitional quick cold in late fall, then nothing til spring.

Long summers, little snow, little severe. The delayed seasons--could they be more than random?


https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1212398179490160644?s=09



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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 03, 2020, 05:32:19 AM
Please make it stop ... ::drowning::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 03, 2020, 06:46:05 AM
Please make it stop ... ::drowning::

It'll stop right around spring and go cold and dry.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: dwagner88 on January 03, 2020, 07:14:24 AM
We got lucky with a dry slot this morning giving some of this water an opportunity to run off. Had 2.50" as of this morning. Places just to the west are likely over 4" and still getting rain this morning.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: NismoWx on January 03, 2020, 07:58:44 AM
I felt like I was looking at January 1999 in that latest GFS with the active northern stream.   

Not saying that the events of that month will exactly plan out, but I do expect us to have both flooding and severe weather threats as we go through January.

One of the CPC analogs is January 2002 which featured a major flooding event similar to last year across the state.
That was the year the (pre EF) F4/5 hit Barfield also, yes? Or was that 97?

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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on January 03, 2020, 08:06:19 AM
So, according to this guy, maybe we're perma-screwed (if you read between the lines)...permanently long summers, transitional quick cold in late fall, then nothing til spring.

Long summers, little snow, little severe. The delayed seasons--could they be more than random?


https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1212398179490160644?s=09



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For the past decade this has been our pattern.  Pretty obvious something is happening so maybe he is right.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 03, 2020, 08:12:36 AM
When was the last winter we had a true negative nao and ao?during winter months i am referring to...  ?
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Thundersnow on January 03, 2020, 10:16:00 AM
It almost seems like- a dominant status quo zonal pattern sets in for mid-winter nearly every year now.

During the transition seasons of fall and spring, blocking and polar air masses are more easily dislodged.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 03, 2020, 10:54:24 AM
When was the last winter we had a true negative nao and ao?during winter months i am referring to...  ?

2012-13, but the Pacific was not favorable that winter.  2010-11 is the last really signficiant -NAO/-AO. 

There is now some research being conducted that suggests the warm waters near Australia/New Zealand (the same pattern responsible for the current major event going on in that area) leads to extended time in MJO phases 4-5 which are two of our three warm phases.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 03, 2020, 11:21:20 AM
I just wish for jan 2010 and jan 2011 to come back :)Ö.a whole decade since my last good winter :(
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Tamlin on January 03, 2020, 11:56:37 AM
So, according to this guy, maybe we're perma-screwed (if you read between the lines)...permanently long summers, transitional quick cold in late fall, then nothing til spring.

Long summers, little snow, little severe. The delayed seasons--could they be more than random?


https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1212398179490160644?s=09



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Man made climate change deniers are the only ones who still believe this is some kind of random weather pattern. It's not. It's the new normal. Piece of advice: get used to it. Winters as you knew them are effectively over. And no, that doesn't mean it won't ever snow again or even get cold again. And I know some of you will be chomping at the bit the next time it hits 15 degrees to jump all over Facebook and post your "What climate change?" memes. But the science really is settled (to get political with you).
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Icestorm on January 03, 2020, 02:29:49 PM
LOL!!!!!
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 03, 2020, 02:33:51 PM
Man made climate change deniers are the only ones who still believe this is some kind of random weather pattern. It's not. It's the new normal. Piece of advice: get used to it. Winters as you knew them are effectively over. And no, that doesn't mean it won't ever snow again or even get cold again. And I know some of you will be chomping at the bit the next time it hits 15 degrees to jump all over Facebook and post your "What climate change?" memes. But the science really is settled (to get political with you).
could be s early nominee for post of the year
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 03, 2020, 03:10:06 PM
Everyone is entitled to an opinion when it comes to climate change and global warming for or against. We do have an ongoing climate change discussion in another section of the forum. Feel free to express your opinions there without shaming someone for their beliefs- again- for or against.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on January 03, 2020, 03:56:05 PM
Next Friday/Saturday still looks like it might be a severe event for us and points south of TN.  Lets see how it looks after this weekend when mid range models are in range.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2020, 07:40:38 AM
Extended latest euro sure looks more like a NiŮa pattern... lol... late Friday still Bears watching ... 0z has a healthier warm sector ... better surface dew points ...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: JHart on January 04, 2020, 12:10:47 PM
We just experienced a brief graupel shower with the sun shining here in Lascassas.  Cool.  Literally and figuratively.

Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 04, 2020, 12:53:56 PM
I could see possible severe next weekend as modeled- not a major outbreak but some severe. Letís see where the next 7 days goes. Looks like a big quick warm up in between cold shots in this progressive pattern. Still nothing like the absolute torches of January 2006 for endless days of warmth.

By day 10, minus 40 degree temps are coming into the northern plains east of the Rockies. Wow.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 04, 2020, 01:18:02 PM
The models are trending a bit faster with our journey through the MJO craptastic Phases 4-6.  If that continues we should be in either Phase 8 or COD by the end of the month.  We have the cold air on our side as well.  I feel like Montana/Most of Washington State/Idaho Panhandle up into NW Canada should finish January below average along with possibly the Desert SW.   

We just need something to break down or move the Aleutian Island Ridge and the MJO to go into those favorable phases to move that cold air on over. 

Now if the Aleutian Island Ridge doesn't move and we circle back into MJO Phase 5 by the end of the month then it will be time to cue the violin. For now there is still some hope for a back-loaded winter. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2020, 01:24:23 PM
Wow euro 12z ... that pattern screams severe weather outbreak with likely a big event on the table
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Vols1 on January 04, 2020, 01:38:12 PM
When Bruce?
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 04, 2020, 01:46:44 PM
There are two systems to watch.  One next weekend and the other early next week (13th-14thish).

The Euro has a very impressive low track for the weekend system ArklaTex to Central IL that is typically a classic track for severe concerns from TN southward and perhaps also right near the low track as well.  The Euro also has a lot of convection hanging around the Gulf Coast area which would throw a wrench into the idea of an even greater event.

Another system tries to run up KY/TN early next week that might be a severe threat but more than likely a heavy rain threat. 

The Euro has a widespread 5-9 inches of rain from these two events so don't skip over the flooding threat while looking at the severe threat. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on January 04, 2020, 02:03:47 PM
If the models hold like they have over the past 5 days we will need to start a thread for next weekend soon. Nothing is ever a lock this far out but the consistency and what is being shown makes me nervous.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 04, 2020, 05:02:22 PM
Had more wintry weather today. Yeah, it was light, but as bad as we've all complained it is the third wintry precip event this early winter/fall.

Post Merge: January 04, 2020, 05:05:16 PM
The models are trending a bit faster with our journey through the MJO craptastic Phases 4-6.  If that continues we should be in either Phase 8 or COD by the end of the month.  We have the cold air on our side as well.  I feel like Montana/Most of Washington State/Idaho Panhandle up into NW Canada should finish January below average along with possibly the Desert SW.   

We just need something to break down or move the Aleutian Island Ridge and the MJO to go into those favorable phases to move that cold air on over. 

Now if the Aleutian Island Ridge doesn't move and we circle back into MJO Phase 5 by the end of the month then it will be time to cue the violin. For now there is still some hope for a back-loaded winter.

Yeah, it doesn't look like we are going to lock into this craptastic pattern, so that's good.

I was hoping we wouldn't see a typical backloaded Nino type pattern and see a good January, but that looks to be out of cards. Now hoping we see a Fab Feb.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 04, 2020, 05:48:15 PM
well yet another wasted January....more severe threats than snow chances
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 04, 2020, 05:51:30 PM
Had more wintry weather today. Yeah, it was light, but as bad as we've all complained it is the third wintry precip event this early winter/fall.

Post Merge: January 04, 2020, 05:05:16 PM
Yeah, it doesn't look like we are going to lock into this craptastic pattern, so that's good.

I was hoping we wouldn't see a typical backloaded Nino type pattern and see a good January, but that looks to be out of cards. Now hoping we see a Fab Feb.
hoping we see a early spring myself ... this pattern sucks for winter here

Post Merge: January 04, 2020, 05:53:29 PM
Appears even ole Bastardi has thrown in the towel for winter mainly eastern half country
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 04, 2020, 05:55:49 PM
hoping we see a early spring myself ... this pattern sucks for winter here

Post Merge: January 04, 2020, 05:53:29 PM
Appears even ole Bastardi has thrown in the towel for winter mainly eastern half country

nothing in next 7-10 days to give me confidence in the future for any kind of snow this month....pattern has to break big time and just nothing to hope for yet :(
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 04, 2020, 07:20:15 PM
Well I will take 50-60 and sunny all winter.  Always better than 33-45 rains.   Come on early spring and please be spring not a cold spring.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 04, 2020, 07:28:59 PM
We have a thread somewhere for all the complaining. It is January 4th. Some want to complain about winter but we had over 5 feet of snow at my location this past decade. I promise we did not in the 90s.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 05, 2020, 04:30:11 AM
wow the 0z euro is amped up... SPC  already got a day 6 and 7 higlighed with parts of west Tennessee in it... sure it will change in more runs coming up... but a big severe weather event is looking likely plus some major flooding potential ::drowning::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on January 05, 2020, 06:53:00 AM
We have a thread somewhere for all the complaining. It is January 4th. Some want to complain about winter but we had over 5 feet of snow at my location this past decade. I promise we did not in the 90s.

I agree. The complaining gets out of control over here at times.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 05, 2020, 08:36:27 AM
Wow. 0z euro putting down 8 to 12 inches rain over ne  Arkansas se Missouri and western Kentucky ... this up coming weekend
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cliftown04 on January 05, 2020, 09:30:46 AM
Wow those are scary numbers. It will be interesting to see where that axis of heavy rain sets up. Iíll be curious if we see any movement on the next model runs. If it were modeled snow we know it would steadily creep back north but since itís rain...Tennessee River is already in minor flood.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Flash on January 05, 2020, 10:12:29 AM
We have a thread somewhere for all the complaining. It is January 4th. Some want to complain about winter but we had over 5 feet of snow at my location this past decade. I promise we did not in the 90s.

Excellent perspective and a refreshing contrast to the negative Nancy's on regional forums giving up already. I'm punting January like most, but going all in for Fab Feb. **Puts chips on the table** As a math major and decent DFS player, the string of wretched Feb's has to come to an end at some point. Even if this February does suck, maybe we can score a March '18 repeat. Either way, the pattern is going to flip at some point. I think especially for your area, Dyer, you can cash in well past the end of met winter. Whatever happens the next 2/3 months, considering I haven't seen snow yet this winter, if WPC puts at moderate risk down for 4"+ anywhere in TN, I will be chasing.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 05, 2020, 11:31:59 AM
Letís get back focused on the next two systems please ... there is another thread on ranting and complaining ...
Title: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Michael on January 05, 2020, 02:18:48 PM
Timeout! Stop your arguing and look at Tuesdayís weather!

Folks (Upper East Tn in particular)...
The 12z NAM 3k for Tuesday

Just coming in...18z puts Middle Tn, north of 40 in on it too.


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: dwagner88 on January 05, 2020, 04:41:39 PM
The GFS and Euro are in agreement on basically statewide flooding by mid week next week. First event is over the weekend, but it is followed too closely by another rain event early the following week. Too much water in a drainage basin that is already saturated.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 05, 2020, 04:52:23 PM
The CFS, GFS, and EURO have all consistently shown a widespread 3-6inches of rain from both the weekend system the one early the following week with some models showing as much as 12-13 inches.   

That combined with the potential for strong to severe storms on the weekend system means that we got ourselves a situation to watch.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 05, 2020, 05:19:29 PM
The 18z GFS is drunk. Donít believe me take a look.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cbrentv318 on January 05, 2020, 06:12:28 PM
The 18z GFS is drunk. Donít believe me take a look.
Drunk or high?


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: dwagner88 on January 05, 2020, 06:17:47 PM
MRX currently has an HWO in effect that is totally blank. All it says is ďNo hazardous weather expectedĒ.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 05, 2020, 06:23:23 PM
The 18z GFS is drunk. Donít believe me take a look.

Sleet storm in Mexico? Seems legit.


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on January 05, 2020, 06:40:19 PM
Drunk or high?


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Historic ice storm for Jackson MS
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 05, 2020, 07:15:10 PM
I pay no attention to the 18z and the 6z runs of the gfs...for that matter, pretty much the gfs it self... ::rofl:: these days
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 05, 2020, 08:43:58 PM
It wouldn't take much fo an ice storm to strike the I-44 corridor with the Mid-January pattern.  The Deep South or the Gulf of Mexico that is just not happening.   

Post Merge: January 06, 2020, 04:16:42 AM
The latest SPC 4-8 day outlook has expended the severe risk to much of the state. 

Although latest model runs have been trending a tad bit weaker and further to the southeast with the low actually tracking through West/Middle TN instead of from Arkansas to Illinois.  At this time it doesn't look like the SPC buys that slightly eastward trend.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2020, 09:16:49 AM
It wouldn't take much fo an ice storm to strike the I-44 corridor with the Mid-January pattern.  The Deep South or the Gulf of Mexico that is just not happening.   

Post Merge: January 06, 2020, 04:16:42 AM
The latest SPC 4-8 day outlook has expended the severe risk to much of the state. 

Although latest model runs have been trending a tad bit weaker and further to the southeast with the low actually tracking through West/Middle TN instead of from Arkansas to Illinois.  At this time it doesn't look like the SPC buys that slightly eastward trend.

these systems are usually a ms/al situation in the winter with a few storms possibly crossing the state line to southern tn before weakening ...but we got to keep an eye on it
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Drifter49 on January 06, 2020, 09:39:03 AM
I'm just replying so I'll get notifications lol

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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2020, 01:29:09 PM
the latest run of todays euro long range, holds on to a negative pdo and negative pna fairly consistently... course we all know what the nao and ao are doing... ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 06, 2020, 02:24:23 PM
the latest run of todays euro long range, holds on to a negative pdo and negative pna fairly consistently... course we all know what the nao and ao are doing...  ::blowtorch::

Actually the EPS is cold in the long range and has a +PNA
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2020, 02:58:54 PM
lets see if it quits teasing us this time... or it keeps wanting play kick the can down the ole road...

Post Merge: January 06, 2020, 03:27:40 PM
appears greatest severe threat going be along sw ark too .north ms north alabama and perhaps far north as southern middle Tennessee... main threat appears to be damaging winds by far with the lack of directional shear... fairly sharp trough so broke embeded supper cells look to be the main thing... front tries to go merridonal so look for some training of cells for us with potential for some flash flooding in the midsouth  ::drowning::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on January 06, 2020, 03:36:13 PM
lets see if it quits teasing us this time... or it keeps wanting play kick the can down the ole road...

Post Merge: January 06, 2020, 03:27:40 PM
appears greatest severe threat going be along sw ark too .north ms north alabama and perhaps far north as southern middle Tennessee... main threat appears to be damaging winds by far with the lack of directional shear... fairly sharp trough so broke embeded supper cells look to be the main thing... front tries to go merridonal so look for some training of cells for us with potential for some flash flooding in the midsouth  ::drowning::

The #1 analog for this system is 2/5/2008.... Super Tuesday outbreak
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2020, 04:33:24 PM
The #1 analog for this system is 2/5/2008.... Super Tuesday outbreak

But that was a real supercell outbreak before it became linear...that long supercell from MS to north of Nashville dropped a tornado 2 miles from my home around 7pm and that was incredibly scary...it was LOUD even at that distance...one of the few times we have had a high risk and i was legitimately nervous....I just wonder if this has anything close to that potential ?? If so could be bad news
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 06, 2020, 06:06:03 PM
At least we are getting fantasy storms now. GFS is a thing of beauty long range.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 06, 2020, 06:36:50 PM
Is the long range beginning to show signs of a pattern flip. I live in Johnson City at around 1,800 feet. We got the one big snow last year in early December with 10 inches and only a couple 1-2 inch snows during January. This year we have had a couple 2 inch snows and a good dusting this past Saturday night. Very limited on chances for snow even for us lately. We usually get several 2 or 3 inch snows from a north west flow that provides an upslope effect but the last few years there has been even limited cold weather. Just hoping for a flip before the end of January. This is a great site with some very good posters


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2020, 07:41:24 PM
Is the long range beginning to show signs of a pattern flip. I live in Johnson City at around 1,800 feet. We got the one big snow last year in early December with 10 inches and only a couple 1-2 inch snows during January. This year we have had a couple 2 inch snows and a good dusting this past Saturday night. Very limited on chances for snow even for us lately. We usually get several 2 or 3 inch snows from a north west flow that provides an upslope effect but the last few years there has been even limited cold weather. Just hoping for a flip before the end of January. This is a great site with some very good posters


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the eps model, which is pretty good super long range model... is indicating a pattern change around 20th January, showing a positive pna which puts the ridge out west.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 06, 2020, 07:45:59 PM
Hopefully that will take place and kicking the can down the road as you have stated wonít happen like it did last year for most of the winter


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 06, 2020, 07:56:28 PM
the eps model, which is pretty good super long range model... is indicating a pattern change around 20th January, showing a positive pna which puts the ridge out west.


The last really snowy winter in Johnson City was 95-96. We had a white ground for 6 straight weeks. It snowed  around 18 inches the 20th or so of January and then we got 10 inches around the first of February and then another 8 inches 2 days later. The temperature fell to 15 below zero after the 8 inch snow. We had several other small snows. I am 64 and lived in Johnson City my whole life and that winter really stands out. In 76-77 was the coldest but not much snow. We only got above 32 two or three days in January


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2020, 08:03:08 PM

The last really snowy winter in Johnson City was 95-96. We had a white ground for 6 straight weeks. It snowed  around 18 inches the 20th or so of January and then we got 10 inches around the first of February and then another 8 inches 2 days later. The temperature fell to 15 below zero after the 8 inch snow. We had several other small snows. I am 64 and lived in Johnson City my whole life and that winter really stands out. In 76-77 was the coldest but not much snow. We only got above 32 two or three days in January


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[/quote76 77 winter was one of my favorites here in west tn... I was in eight grade then, missed school almost the entire month of January and first week of February or so, never forget it... it snowed every wed, loca met in Memphis name of dave brown, he called it weird Wednesday s... each snow was at least range from 5 to 10 inches with brutal cold... 77 78 was very cold winter here also, just little less snow here in west compared to 76 77
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on January 06, 2020, 08:15:47 PM
This is January in the south.  Stop all that snow talk. Itís cold rain season   ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 06, 2020, 08:55:39 PM
I can see the event Saturday going a few different ways....the low pressure doesn't go far enough north , or it ends up going around Paducah and puts us in the danger zone, but I feel like it will be cloudy/rainy before the event in that scenario and would possibly inhibit development?
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Michael on January 06, 2020, 08:56:39 PM
If you wanna good laugh... Map Time!
Jan 22.....Go check out 18z GFS. Iíd post it but am afraid of getting scoffed at lol.


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Flash on January 06, 2020, 08:57:37 PM
the eps model, which is pretty good super long range model... is indicating a pattern change around 20th January, showing a positive pna which puts the ridge out west.

The PNA appears to be heading in the right direction.  West, maybe middle, TN can work with a near neutral PNA assuming other telecons cooperate. NAO/EPO/PNA all seem to be heading in better directions in the mid-term...

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 06, 2020, 09:21:59 PM
If you wanna good laugh... Map Time!
Jan 22.....Go check out 18z GFS. Iíd post it but am afraid of getting scoffed at lol.


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post it. We need some good humor in here lol
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Michael on January 06, 2020, 10:52:11 PM
post it. We need some good humor in here lol
Of course it disappeared on 00z, as expected. But here was the 18z run for 1-22-20
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200107/f9182944fac306ee21bc2e689e4f121c.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2020, 04:02:04 AM
0z runs have increased the severe potential here pretty significant  including tornadoes
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 07, 2020, 04:59:48 AM
0z runs have increased the severe potential here pretty significant  including tornadoes

The Euro did.  The GFS is a Deep South event because it is too quick and southeast with the low not allowing enough time for TN to destabilize.  It looks like the SPC is leaning towards the Euro, more likely because of the GFS's bias towards being too fast/progressive. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2020, 05:10:29 AM
The Euro did.  The GFS is a Deep South event because it is too quick and southeast with the low not allowing enough time for TN to destabilize.  It looks like the SPC is leaning towards the Euro, more likely because of the GFS's bias towards being too fast/progressive.
im just bout done looking at gfs ... havenít looked at that model I say for  months now be honest ...not to say the gfs can score a coupe here n there still, but that model has regressed over the last couple years ... so I mainly look over  the euro model really well.

Post Merge: January 07, 2020, 06:38:18 AM
Meg. Already going with a 4 out possible 5 for impacts of severe  weather ...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 07, 2020, 08:05:40 AM
The PNA appears to be heading in the right direction.  West, maybe middle, TN can work with a near neutral PNA assuming other telecons cooperate. NAO/EPO/PNA all seem to be heading in better directions in the mid-term...

I'm interested in seeing if that strong PV starts breaking down by the end of January. Solar forcing says it should. If we can get it to fragment and get our other teleconnections to cooperate, we could be in business. The waiting game continues.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Eric on January 07, 2020, 10:46:55 AM
12z GFS still hanging on to the idea of a cold-air-chasing-precip scenario (with minimal accumulations) next week but has zero support from the Euro.  Confidence is very low something will materialize out of that, but still something to watch.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 07, 2020, 11:10:10 AM
im just bout done looking at gfs ... havenít looked at that model I say for  months now be honest ...not to say the gfs can score a coupe here n there still, but that model has regressed over the last couple years ... so I mainly look over  the euro model really well.

Post Merge: January 07, 2020, 06:38:18 AM
Meg. Already going with a 4 out possible 5 for impacts of severe  weather ...

I still say it is way to early to be calling for " outbreak" by any nws office over 70-80 hours away from event.
SPC states the greatest threat from east texas to central ms and alabama and that is what I have been thinking from the start....but time will tell....that LOW could very well go a bit farther north and really get us into unstable air, just a bit too far out to really know, but the idea is on the table
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2020, 11:24:38 AM
I still say it is way to early to be calling for " outbreak" by any nws office over 70-80 hours away from event.
SPC states the greatest threat from east texas to central ms and alabama and that is what I have been thinking from the start....but time will tell....that LOW could very well go a bit farther north and really get us into unstable air, just a bit too far out to really know, but the idea is on the table
yeah agree, be nice to see slp get little stronger so it would trend further north in time  waiting on the 12z euro now. lol
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 07, 2020, 11:33:53 AM
I believe something is brewing for the Jan 17-25 timeframe. Time will tell.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on January 07, 2020, 12:39:15 PM
I believe something is brewing for the Jan 17-25 timeframe. Time will tell.

Winter or severe? Been out of the loop.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2020, 12:55:50 PM
Winter or severe? Been out of the loop.
another severe weather threat early next week... then the se ridge gets beat down some... with artic air lurking to our north, active southern jet you got the making of a potential ice storm in the period dyer is referring to... something to watch towards  the end of the month
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on January 07, 2020, 01:00:02 PM
The next two weeks look warm.... unless you are looking at the goofy runs and hoping for a miracle.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: dwagner88 on January 07, 2020, 01:26:08 PM
Globals have backed off on some of the heavier rains today and pushed it south into Georgia. Hope that trend holds.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Eric on January 07, 2020, 01:39:27 PM
The next two weeks look warm.... unless you are looking at the goofy runs and hoping for a miracle.

Looking at the goofy runs?  Yes.

Hoping for a miracle?  We live in Tennessee. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 07, 2020, 01:46:00 PM
Looking at the goofy runs?  Yes.

Hoping for a miracle?  We live in Tennessee.
we need to hit a hail marry then... lol
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 07, 2020, 03:27:38 PM
It's what happens after the next 10-12 days that matters to most, still a lot of time left for winter to leave it's mark. Not saying it will or won't, but certainly not throwing in the towel for a good winter event or maybe in more who knows. It's early January plenty of time for things to change. Long range looks seem to indicate possible pattern change in the works. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 07, 2020, 08:54:39 PM
Saturday is a tough call as far as severe weather goes especially our portion. 

Dynamically we have a low pressure that is almost in a perfect area for a Dixie Outbreak which looks to track from about SE Oklahoma to SE Missouri and then up into Indiana/Ohio.   A nice sharp negatively tilted trough with a strong jet streak and very good moisture return especially for a cool-season event. 

The main negatives look to be lapse rates which really tank the instability down to a few hundred CAPE and a really saturated environment complete with the possibility of convection firing everywhere.  If we can get some clearing in the warm sector then severe weather even significant severe weather is on the table because it doesn't take much this time of year, but if not it will be a struggle to see things get going especially on the northern edge of things.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on January 07, 2020, 10:39:12 PM
Independent of the weather, there's another severe situation brewing this week...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Eric on January 08, 2020, 07:03:20 AM
Went ahead and pulled the trigger on an event thread for this weekend. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cgauxknox on January 08, 2020, 07:06:14 AM
Independent of the weather, there's another severe situation brewing this week...
Connected to actual weather there was a magnitude 4.9 earthquake in southwestern Iran early this morning.  We've also had the earthquakes in an already vulnerable Puerto Rico this week.  While we naturally focus on what's happening near us there has been quite a bit of activity in recent days.  Let's all hope that the only destruction we see in the Middle East is natural rather than man made.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 08, 2020, 08:14:14 AM
CFS hinting at a turnaround towards the end of the month and a good cold period after that. See a pic in the link below from Bastardi. We shall see.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1214888252756373505 (https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1214888252756373505)

Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2020, 08:19:33 AM
CFS hinting at a turnaround towards the end of the month and a good cold period after that. See a pic in the link below from Bastardi. We shall see.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1214888252756373505 (https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1214888252756373505)
take what jb says with grain salt ...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 08, 2020, 09:36:32 AM
Who cares about JB when model support- esp Euro control- shows a possible overrunning event somewhere in the 17-20th timeframe, and then a brutal arctic air mass coming right into the area after. Better enjoy the warmer temps while there here. Plenty of model support moving forward for this scenario. Its really hard to fight a 1050 high in the plains in mid winter. Its pretty simple. The MJO collapse or movement into the colder phases will move the cold air- which is sufficiently present this side of the globe- southward.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 08, 2020, 10:18:15 AM
Who cares about JB when model support- esp Euro control- shows a possible overrunning event somewhere in the 17-20th timeframe, and then a brutal arctic air mass coming right into the area after. Better enjoy the warmer temps while there here. Plenty of model support moving forward for this scenario. Its really hard to fight a 1050 high in the plains in mid winter. Its pretty simple. The MJO collapse or movement into the colder phases will move the cold air- which is sufficiently present this side of the globe- southward.
uh. Ok...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 08, 2020, 10:24:17 AM
take what jb says with grain salt ...

Take long range models or long rage forecasters with a grain of salt.

However, right now, the extended looks cold. Hopefully, it keeps that look.

It's ok to be optimistic. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2020, 10:32:04 AM
Who cares about JB when model support- esp Euro control- shows a possible overrunning event somewhere in the 17-20th timeframe, and then a brutal arctic air mass coming right into the area after. Better enjoy the warmer temps while there here. Plenty of model support moving forward for this scenario. Its really hard to fight a 1050 high in the plains in mid winter. Its pretty simple. The MJO collapse or movement into the colder phases will move the cold air- which is sufficiently present this side of the globe- southward.

I just keep remembering last season ( jan or feb) about 2 weeks out it was supposed to be so cold in the mid south that some people on this site even said they feared for the lives of hunters because it was going to get so cold so fast Ö.. it never materialized and at most it was a two day cold snap with lows in the mid to upper teens...cold yes but not that drastic since we do normally hit teens several nights in the winter season

I just cannot trust anything anymore more than 4-5 days out and even then its a bit of a stretch...long range modeling to me is nothing more than putting the idea of a trend that may be coming but the details to me are just not trustworthy until 4-5 days out....BUT I hope the end of January brings us a good surprise :)

Post Merge: January 08, 2020, 10:32:36 AM
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: joemomma on January 08, 2020, 11:24:33 AM
Just looked at the forecast for the area around Billings, MT and they are expecting some brutal cold in the coming days.  Some of that has to work it's way down towards us, I would think.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 08, 2020, 12:02:16 PM
uh. Ok...

uh ok- coming from someone who tries to nail down every severe weather event 10 days out.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2020, 12:10:18 PM
uh ok- coming from someone who tries to nail down every severe weather event 10 days out.

that's kind of funny hehe...sorry bruce :). it's amazing...I always thought it was just me and my brother who argued and bickered about weather, it's nice to know I am not alone :)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 08, 2020, 12:15:05 PM
that's kind of funny hehe...sorry bruce :). it's amazing...I always thought it was just me and my brother who argued and bickered about weather, it's nice to know I am not alone :)

Hey now, I like Bruce. He's ours and we claim him.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 08, 2020, 12:22:21 PM
Hey now, I like Bruce. He's ours and we claim him.

I like everybody here :)...we're just a bunch of weather nerds :)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 08, 2020, 01:15:32 PM
Day 10 EURO

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Woodvegas on January 08, 2020, 04:11:48 PM
Who cares about JB when model support- esp Euro control- shows a possible overrunning event somewhere in the 17-20th timeframe, and then a brutal arctic air mass coming right into the area after. Better enjoy the warmer temps while there here. Plenty of model support moving forward for this scenario. Its really hard to fight a 1050 high in the plains in mid winter. Its pretty simple. The MJO collapse or movement into the colder phases will move the cold air- which is sufficiently present this side of the globe- southward.

Yeah I agree. It looks like a good setup for an overrunning event. I just hope I don't end up on the warm side of it!
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 08, 2020, 05:54:47 PM
What I am seeing in the long-range if it holds is probably a pretty decent pattern for West TN.  SE TN and the Carolinas probably not so much, but the High and placement of brutally cold air over the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains and the impact of some ridging along the SE coast are good for areas like the Interstate 44 corridor over towards West TN (especially NW TN and Arkansas).   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 08, 2020, 07:25:54 PM
Yeah I agree. It looks like a good setup for an overrunning event. I just hope I don't end up on the warm side of it!
Worst case scenario is that you are on the cold side of it but not quite enough for snow and you get ice. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 08, 2020, 11:16:35 PM
The 0zgfs at 168hrs is showing a 1050mb high coming down the plains. Tries to develop a winter event a few days after i believe.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Eric on January 09, 2020, 07:31:51 AM
6z GFS has popped *something* near Day 10, but the 0z Euro has squadoosh.  No big surprise there.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 09, 2020, 08:19:00 AM
6z GFS has popped *something* near Day 10, but the 0z Euro has squadoosh.  No big surprise there.
0z euro
Backed way off from the cold temps too long range also

Post Merge: January 09, 2020, 08:37:29 AM
0z euro
Backed way off from the cold temps too long range also
amazing at the ski resorts in eastern half country shutdown due to lack of snow or even cold to make snow ...☹️
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 09, 2020, 09:13:09 AM
Looked liked 6 gfs had a storm around the 16th that falls apart. Then had like a 30 hour snowfall around hour 270. LOL! The main thing I am liking is seeing the southern jet still active with colder air appearing to be moving in during the longer range. Nothing certain but it's looking more promising down the road. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 09, 2020, 09:21:02 AM
For entertainment only. The GFS has the perfect Tennessee storm around day 12.

Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cgauxknox on January 09, 2020, 09:24:12 AM
12 days out with the GFS, what could go wrong?  Book it.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Eric on January 09, 2020, 10:33:57 AM
For entertainment only. The GFS has the perfect Tennessee storm around day 12.

Which means it'll be pasting the I-44 corridor by next Friday.  Cool to look at though. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: joemomma on January 09, 2020, 11:12:57 AM
For entertainment only. The GFS has the perfect Tennessee storm around day 12.

I'd buy that for a dollar.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Flash on January 09, 2020, 01:03:10 PM
Which means it'll be pasting the I-44 corridor by next Friday.  Cool to look at though.

I only ask for something reasonably chase-able at this point. Assigning 44 as a cut-off, this looks promising news either way. Who would have thought clown maps would be this refreshing?
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 09, 2020, 01:11:44 PM
For entertainment only. The GFS has the perfect Tennessee storm around day 12.

If we divide snow totals by days out. That gives BNA 7/12ths of an inch. I'll take it.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: jfranklin on January 09, 2020, 01:49:55 PM
If we divide snow totals by days out. That gives BNA 7/12ths of an inch. I'll take it.

So I see you're using my formula, created in 2011.  :D

I'm going to post this here first for consumption by the meteorologic community.  I'm going to go ahead and say that this only applies to Nashville.

For the purposes of predicting snow, science has failed us, time and time again. I present to you now the product of years* of research. Where models fail, my formula succeeds.

BEHOLD!

The Nashville Snow Formula:

if d = the number of days until the event, and i = the highest modeled snowfall for Nashville, then the actual accumulations will be i / d.

For example, if the models show a monster 5 days away that will give us 8 inches:
d = 5
i = 8

actual would be 8 / 5 = 1.6 inches.

If we're 2 days away and it's showing 5 inches, 5 / 2 = 2.5 inches.

The only exception is d can never be 1. Once you're a day away, d remains 2 for the remainder of the forecast period. So even inside 1 day (which is actually nowcasting time), the formula dictates snow totals will STILL be half of what's predicted.  ::evillaugh::

You're welcome!  ::rofl::


* - minutes

I demand royalties!
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Coach B on January 09, 2020, 01:59:22 PM
If we divide snow totals by days out. That gives BNA 7/12ths of an inch. I'll take it.
I'd say this is a fantastic formula based on Nashville's ability in the last 20 years to be the undisputed king of snowfalls of less than an inch.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 09, 2020, 02:39:44 PM
So I see you're using my formula, created in 2011.  :D

I demand royalties!

I'll give you 7/12ths of BNA's snowtotal this year in feet.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: mudaddict on January 09, 2020, 06:36:02 PM
the 18z GFS is crazy cold in the long range...as usual :0
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 09, 2020, 09:15:57 PM
Real pattern change is looking more likely as we move toward the last 10-12 days of Jan and into the first of Feb. Still a ways out but starting to like how things are looking down the road. ::fingerscrossed:: ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 09, 2020, 10:51:45 PM
Yes seems the signs on models is winter is to make an appearance and might stay for a visit instead of a drive by.  We shall see.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clay on January 10, 2020, 12:11:39 AM
What if I told you the GFS has single digit temps in the Florida Panhandle with 6" on the Gulf Coast? Would you believe me?

Edit: Commence SouthernWX meltdown.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2020, 12:17:19 AM
What if I told you the GFS has single digit temps in the Florida Panhandle with 6" on the Gulf Coast? Would you believe me?
i would say April fools...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 10, 2020, 12:46:20 AM
What if I told you the GFS has single digit temps in the Florida Panhandle with 6" on the Gulf Coast? Would you believe me?

Edit: Commence SouthernWX meltdown.
I would say we got it right were we want it. Let the trend begin.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 10, 2020, 03:00:26 AM
And the 0z euro says ... what pattern change lol
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on January 10, 2020, 06:47:51 AM
And the 0z euro says ... what pattern change lol
Hope King Euro was drunk that last run. But if he says the same today I will have to believe him. 🤞🏻
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Flash on January 10, 2020, 08:32:32 AM
Hope King Euro was drunk that last run. But if he says the same today I will have to believe him. 🤞🏻

I'll have to check the EPS and see if that last Euro run stands alone. Better to lean on ensembles at this stage. I know the 12z run looked promising yesterday...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 10, 2020, 08:48:27 AM
I'll have to check the EPS and see if that last Euro run stands alone. Better to lean on ensembles at this stage. I know the 12z run looked promising yesterday...

The European control has a beast of an arctic air mass spilling down to the central Plains into our area in about 10 days. Thatís just past where the operational run would be.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 10, 2020, 09:32:30 AM
Everything seems to be looking good with the exception of the Euro Op. Even it's own ensembles look cold from what I am hearing. Pulling for a FLIP! ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 10, 2020, 09:33:32 AM
Everything seems to be looking good with the exception of the Euro Op. Even it's own ensembles look cold from what I am hearing. Pulling for a FLIP! ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

It is just nice to finally see a HINT that things are not too far down the road :):):)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 10, 2020, 09:39:36 AM
Everything seems to be looking good with the exception of the Euro Op. Even it's own ensembles look cold from what I am hearing. Pulling for a FLIP! ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

As we've seen in the past with pattern changes, sometimes the models are a little quick with them. We shall see.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 11, 2020, 09:38:03 AM
Just wondering if the pattern flip is still looking positive. Starting a week from today the long range on my phone indicates a huge cool down for Johnson  City with highs around 40 and lows in the 20ís for the period of the 18th through the 24th. This is the first time all winter the long range has even been around the average for a solid week


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on January 11, 2020, 09:53:00 AM
Just wondering if the pattern flip is still looking positive. Starting a week from today the long range on my phone indicates a huge cool down for Johnson  City with highs around 40 and lows in the 20ís for the period of the 18th through the 24th. This is the first time all winter the long range has even been around the average for a solid week


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The Euro is finally coming around showing cold and possibly snow on last nights run. But donít get too excited because who knows, it might change on the next run today.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2020, 04:19:01 PM
Eps was nt as promising on pattern change as earlier this past week ... looks to be another transient cool shot coming later month ...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 11, 2020, 05:05:02 PM
It is all about that MJO MOJO JOJO.  Right now we have quite a bit of uncertainity on what happens with that after say next weekend. 

Most at least take us into Phase 7.  Remember that phases 3 and 7 are the pattern changing phases.  With 3 being the changer to a warmer pattern and 7 a cooler one.  Some takes us into 7 then 8 then COD which is our best bet.  Some take us into 7 then COD which is okay.  Others stop right before COD and go 6 to COD and potentially back through 5 and 6 which is not favorable. 

If we cannot stay away from MJO phases 5 and 6 then our chances for sustained cold late month into February go down. 

There is reason for optimism but there is also a chance the Lucy is about to Charlie Brown us as well.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 11, 2020, 05:51:53 PM
It is all about that MJO MOJO JOJO.  Right now we have quite a bit of uncertainity on what happens with that after say next weekend. 

Most at least take us into Phase 7.  Remember that phases 3 and 7 are the pattern changing phases.  With 3 being the changer to a warmer pattern and 7 a cooler one.  Some takes us into 7 then 8 then COD which is our best bet.  Some take us into 7 then COD which is okay.  Others stop right before COD and go 6 to COD and potentially back through 5 and 6 which is not favorable. 

If we cannot stay away from MJO phases 5 and 6 then our chances for sustained cold late month into February go down. 

There is reason for optimism but there is also a chance the Lucy is about to Charlie Brown us as well.   
kicking the can down the old road 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 11, 2020, 06:40:36 PM
As long as we don't go backwards into Phases 5-6 after next weekend then I think we will be at least okay. 

Also the PNA, NAO, AO go to around Neutral versus being super unfavorable. 


Post Merge: January 11, 2020, 06:42:08 PM
Washington State is looking to get pasted over the next week.  Two snowfalls look likely in Seattle and the Cascades is going tobe counting additional snowfall this week in feet.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2020, 09:41:00 AM
long range now going with pretty much positive nao and positive ao for much of February... per weeklies.  what else is new here >:D

Post Merge: January 12, 2020, 09:42:29 AM
so any cooler shots of air coming look pretty much transient down the pike...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 12, 2020, 10:23:31 AM
Some places in NW Washington State will face several inches of snow with 60MPH winds at the same time.  That would be nice to chase if you had a few days of supplies with you.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 12, 2020, 01:33:41 PM
I still like our chances we get pattern flip, at least it is something to watch for over the next few days. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2020, 03:18:06 PM
Think we are on a record breaking pace to have the quietest winter thread since forum started ...☹️
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: dwagner88 on January 12, 2020, 03:22:11 PM
Some places in NW Washington State will face several inches of snow with 60MPH winds at the same time.  That would be nice to chase if you had a few days of supplies with you.
Iíd love to park a nice RV at snoqualmie pass for the next week. Should be several feet of snow there.

On a local note, I canít remember ever seeing so many consecutive days of convective precipitation forecast in January. GFS says around 2Ē, almost all of it convective. Very odd for January.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2020, 03:33:56 PM
Some places in NW Washington State will face several inches of snow with 60MPH winds at the same time.  That would be nice to chase if you had a few days of supplies with you.
pacific northwest and Rockies. R having a killer winter ... there year seems
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on January 12, 2020, 04:05:14 PM
If you like severe weather then this 1/2 of the winter is for you. Upper 60s with a few systems that will bring a thunderstorm or two
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 12, 2020, 05:08:41 PM
If you like severe weather then this 1/2 of the winter is for you. Upper 60s with a few systems that will bring a thunderstorm or two

I donít see any chances of severe wx in the modeling.  I see seasonal to cooler than average after this week.  Wet cool to cold.  We can score with seasonal temps.  Iíd say better chances to be wet and cool/cold to possibly snow/ice than severe wx anytime soon.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 12, 2020, 05:48:15 PM
All ensembles go BN temp wise starting next weekend - coincidentally when the MJO emerges through 7- and end up here for temp anomalies on day 15 for a reversal of fortune and in the heart of winter.
GEFS
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200112/2f53ffd786dab25ecf2bd1fa432eccf4.jpg)

Canadian
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200112/000cf56b7230d249568b88ae1fed2f67.jpg)

Euro
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200112/e75654fde7b9c7a3d008476020b9944e.jpg)

The Euro control has a snowstorm through the entire state in the 11-15.






Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Michael on January 12, 2020, 07:00:32 PM
GFS keeps hinting at something in the 10-16. Something to watch for sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 12, 2020, 07:27:46 PM
All ensembles go BN temp wise starting next weekend - coincidentally when the MJO emerges through 7- and end up here for temp anomalies on day 15 for a reversal of fortune and in the heart of winter.
GEFS
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200112/2f53ffd786dab25ecf2bd1fa432eccf4.jpg)

Canadian
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200112/000cf56b7230d249568b88ae1fed2f67.jpg)

Euro
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200112/e75654fde7b9c7a3d008476020b9944e.jpg)

The Euro control has a snowstorm through the entire state in the 11-15.

Donít see any severe wx in those maps.  ::whistling:: ::whistling::🤷🏻‍♂️
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on January 12, 2020, 08:17:32 PM
Donít see any severe wx in those maps.  ::whistling:: ::whistling::🤷🏻‍♂️

GEFS has a strong signal for severe but ok..... Guess we will see
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 12, 2020, 08:23:13 PM
Not seeing signs still of any artic air coming down here to us least next 10 days
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: mempho on January 13, 2020, 05:13:43 AM
Not seeing signs still of any artic air coming down here to us least next 10 days
Could it be possible that March is colder than January?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2020, 05:25:15 AM
Could it be possible that March is colder than January?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
you can count on a below average temp wise March ...  thatís for sure
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 13, 2020, 05:29:27 AM
Not seeing signs still of any artic air coming down here to us least next 10 days
Donít know what you consider arctic air but all models have us much colder after day 6. Not brutal cold but perfect if you want snow.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2020, 05:59:03 AM
Donít know what you consider arctic air but all models have us much colder after day 6. Not brutal cold but perfect if you want snow.
seasonal averages pretty much ... remember weíre approaching our coldest climate average  time ...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Coach B on January 13, 2020, 07:29:53 AM
seasonal averages pretty much ... remember weíre approaching our coldest climate average  time ...

Seasonal will be a big change from what will end up being FOUR straight weeks with every day above normal. In addition, seasonal can get the job done in late January through mid February. Probably wont lock in the Arctic for an extended period, but we are clearly headed toward a major pattern change that should at least provide us some opportunities. Come on Bruce, it beats the last month of NO opportunities! ;)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2020, 08:29:02 AM
Donít know what you consider arctic air but all models have us much colder after day 6. Not brutal cold but perfect if you want snow.

I think he is like me...true arctic air is highs in the mid twenties and lows in single digits for more than a 48 hour period.....a high of mid 30's is not really arctic to me but that's just my opinion....
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Eric on January 13, 2020, 08:41:37 AM
I think he is like me...true arctic air is highs in the mid twenties and lows in single digits for more than a 48 hour period.....a high of mid 30's is not really arctic to me but that's just my opinion....

If the depth of the cold air is too deep you risk 1) suppression and/or 2) the air being so dry it's hard to get precip through the column.  As long as we get temps in the upper 20s - low 30s, we'll get snow.  Most of our BEST snows have occurred with the precip 29-34F.  The air carries more water, therefore the snowfall is wet and heavy.  If the temps get too low, the ratios jump up and you get finer and finer flakes, which leads to more snow but less accumulation (if that makes sense).
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2020, 08:52:32 AM
Lows at night coming up could support some snow ... highs temps wonít   Mid 40 wonít cut it . Highs low mid 30s.  Low temps mid to lower 20s is artic to me
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cgauxknox on January 13, 2020, 08:55:57 AM
I've found that using the wonderful ignore feature is helpful, but every time the ignored message shows up I translate it in my head as a profane insult to my desire for seasonal weather.  Oh well ::shrug::, it seems better to imagine it than experience the actual communication.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Scot on January 13, 2020, 08:56:24 AM
So why do the well respected meteorologist that I follow on Twitter talk about a pattern flip and cold snap being modeled but then I come here and see the exact opposite from some people?  Are the meterologists wrong?  Or are the people here just being antagonistic or just plain negative?
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Thundersnow on January 13, 2020, 08:56:36 AM
When I look long range, I look at temps before anything else. Got to see some near or sub-freezing highs before I even get interested, to be honest. A best-case scenario night-time snow that melts off by 10 AM the next morning, is just not that interesting to me. But, that may now be our best case scenario, since it seems gone are the days of snow-packed roads with snow on the ground days on end, at least in this part of the country. We'll see if that ever changes if some kind of cyclical index ever comes back in our favor.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2020, 09:09:46 AM
When I look long range, I look at temps before anything else. Got to see some near or sub-freezing highs before I even get interested, to be honest. A best-case scenario night-time snow that melts off by 10 AM the next morning, is just not that interesting to me. But, that may now be our best case scenario, since it seems gone are the days of snow-packed roads with snow on the ground days on end, at least in this part of the country. We'll see if that ever changes if some kind of cyclical index ever comes back in our favor.
agree exactly ... heck the snow melts now so fast itís crazy... even while itís snowing at night , snow accumulates but soon it stops Starts slowly melt though temps are slightly below freezing ... miss the good ole winters growing up... really do. I have just became to jaded guess
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2020, 09:10:15 AM
If the depth of the cold air is too deep you risk 1) suppression and/or 2) the air being so dry it's hard to get precip through the column.  As long as we get temps in the upper 20s - low 30s, we'll get snow.  Most of our BEST snows have occurred with the precip 29-34F.  The air carries more water, therefore the snowfall is wet and heavy.  If the temps get too low, the ratios jump up and you get finer and finer flakes, which leads to more snow but less accumulation (if that makes sense).

I don't disagree :) I wasn't talking about snow though, somebody asked about what they thought true arctic air meant so I replied with what I consider arctic air....:) But we cannot have highs in the low 40's and night time lows in the upper twenties for real good snow that sticks around a while...I would like a big gulf low in cold air followed by an arctic shot to keep it around for more than a day or two :)

I agree ...a temp of 29 is perfect if it holds steady and doesn't warm up lol...I cannot remember the last time that temps were above 32 and I got snow though to be honest....it seems like it HAS to be freezing or below and even then the past few years it has been more sleet than anything...of course last year I did not even get a dusting of snow lol

Post Merge: January 13, 2020, 09:12:37 AM
agree exactly ... heck the snow melts now so fast itís crazy... even while itís snowing at night , snow accumulates but soon it stops Starts slowly melt though temps are slightly below freezing ... miss the good ole winters growing up... really do. I have just became to jaded guess

2010 and 2011 are the last years that the snow stuck around for 2-3 days in my area...in 2010 storm here we had around 8-10 inches and it was day 3 after the storm before we saw any melting at all. It was beautiful
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Eric on January 13, 2020, 09:13:48 AM
So why do the well respected meteorologist that I follow on Twitter talk about a pattern flip and cold snap being modeled but then I come here and see the exact opposite from some people?  Are the meterologists wrong?  Or are the people here just being antagonistic or just plain negative?

No.  Yes.

Post Merge: January 13, 2020, 09:14:17 AM
I don't disagree :) I wasn't talking about snow though, somebody asked about what they thought true arctic air meant so I replied with what I consider arctic air....:) But we cannot have highs in the low 40's and night time lows in the upper twenties for real good snow that sticks around a while...I would like a big gulf low in cold air followed by an arctic shot to keep it around for more than a day or two :)

I agree ...a temp of 29 is perfect if it holds steady and doesn't warm up lol...I cannot remember the last time that temps were above 32 and I got snow though to be honest....it seems like it HAS to be freezing or below and even then the past few years it has been more sleet than anything...of course last year I did not even get a dusting of snow lol


Yes, agreed.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cgauxknox on January 13, 2020, 09:40:51 AM
So why do the well respected meteorologist that I follow on Twitter talk about a pattern flip and cold snap being modeled but then I come here and see the exact opposite from some people?  Are the meterologists wrong?  Or are the people here just being antagonistic or just plain negative?
[attach=1]
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Coach B on January 13, 2020, 11:00:52 AM
2010 and 2011 are the last years that the snow stuck around for 2-3 days in my area...in 2010 storm here we had around 8-10 inches and it was day 3 after the storm before we saw any melting at all. It was beautiful

I agree we are overdue a good one followed by some real cold. We squandered some great cold snaps in both 2014 and 2015. February 2015 was almost unbelievable that we could be that cold with only nuisance snows. However, you only have to go back to January 2018 to find one that hung around awhile. We had nearly 2" on January 16th followed by three nights of single digits. There was solid snow cover still around four days later, at least over here. No it wasn't a biggie, but we had roads looking like this four days later:
https://twitter.com/BeasleyTres/status/954111477392334848
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2020, 11:07:34 AM
I agree we are overdue a good one followed by some real cold. We squandered some great cold snaps in both 2014 and 2015. February 2015 was almost unbelievable that we could be that cold with only nuisance snows. However, you only have to go back to January 2018 to find one that hung around awhile. We had nearly 2" on January 16th followed by three nights of single digits. There was solid snow cover still around four days later, at least over here.

I don't believe I got in on that one...but to me 2 inches of snow is just bothersome....4+ is what I like...but shoot after past 3 seasons 2 inches of snow would be like a blizzard for me LOL
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Crockett on January 13, 2020, 12:30:48 PM
Nothing beats a good Gulf low with an arctic air mass following behind it, then a clipper system that lays down a couple inches of new snow a day or two later. We used to have way more of those setups than we do now.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2020, 01:07:04 PM
Nothing beats a good Gulf low with an arctic air mass following behind it, then a clipper system that lays down a couple inches of new snow a day or two later. We used to have way more of those setups than we do now.

2011 that happened last for me...nice 4 inch snow from gulf followed by a clipper next night with light powdery inch or so of snow...stuck around for 3 days :)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: bugalou on January 13, 2020, 01:14:44 PM
At this point just give us a bowling ball low from the 4 corners to give us 5 inches of snow at 31 degrees and it all melts the next day.  Its easy.

I do think late jan early feb has some hope though still.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Charles L. on January 13, 2020, 01:37:46 PM
Iím to the point where even a 1-2Ē snow day would suffice.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2020, 02:14:19 PM
At this point just give us a bowling ball low from the 4 corners to give us 5 inches of snow at 31 degrees and it all melts the next day.  Its easy.

I do think late jan early feb has some hope though still.  ::fingerscrossed::

so easy yet hasn't happened in years  :(
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 13, 2020, 02:46:03 PM
Well the positive mojo continues!  Starting this weekend the colder air arrives and just maybe the tracking bus gets rolling
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: bugalou on January 13, 2020, 02:56:25 PM
Nothing beats a good Gulf low with an arctic air mass following behind it, then a clipper system that lays down a couple inches of new snow a day or two later. We used to have way more of those setups than we do now.

Yeah that would be great assuming I have a week off work, a bottle of Xanax, and a couple liters of vodka to get me past the model mayhem in the days leading up to the event.  Having an actual winter storm forecasted a few days out is even more stressful than dealing with snow drought.  That said when it finally happens its euphoric!  ::rofl::

Kids reading, don't be like uncle bugalou - say no to bad habits like meteorology.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2020, 03:06:15 PM
I know this has been a frustrating winter, and as a snow lover myself, I share the frustration... but can some of y'all please take the complaints and wishful thinking to the rant thread? I visit this thread for forecasting and I am frankly tired of sifting through pages of doom-and-gloom posts, as if it will never snow down here again. Mild weather like this during Tennessee winters is not out of the ordinary, as anyone who has lived here longer than 20 years would know by now. We had a pretty frigid November, so the jet was bound to deliver mild air to our region at some point.

There's roughly 60% of winter remaining- a percentage that is fairly flexible- and a pattern change is certainly on the horizon. Some of TN's biggest snowstorms occurred in March.

P.S. Think the mid 1990s-2010s is the only period of warm winters with little snowfall here? Check out how the winters of the 1920s-mid 1950s were.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Eric on January 13, 2020, 03:20:41 PM
Weeks 3-4 look very "winter-like" as far as temps go.  (h/t @RyanMaue)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOMOL6FXsAE6OPJ?format=png&name=medium)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Crockett on January 13, 2020, 03:32:48 PM
I know this has been a frustrating winter, and as a snow lover myself, I share the frustration... but can some of y'all please take the complaints and wishful thinking to the rant thread? I visit this thread for forecasting and I am frankly tired of sifting through pages of doom-and-gloom posts, as if it will never snow down here again. Mild weather like this during Tennessee winters is not out of the ordinary, as anyone who has lived here longer than 20 years would know by now. We had a pretty frigid November, so the jet was bound to deliver mild air to our region at some point.

There's roughly 60% of winter remaining- a percentage that is fairly flexible- and a pattern change is certainly on the horizon. Some of TN's biggest snowstorms occurred in March.

P.S. Think the mid 1990s-2010s is the only period of warm winters with little snowfall here? Check out how the winters of the 1920s-mid 1950s were.

I think we need a thread for complaining about winter complainers.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2020, 03:41:29 PM
I know this has been a frustrating winter, and as a snow lover myself, I share the frustration... but can some of y'all please take the complaints and wishful thinking to the rant thread? I visit this thread for forecasting and I am frankly tired of sifting through pages of doom-and-gloom posts, as if it will never snow down here again. Mild weather like this during Tennessee winters is not out of the ordinary, as anyone who has lived here longer than 20 years would know by now. We had a pretty frigid November, so the jet was bound to deliver mild air to our region at some point.

There's roughly 60% of winter remaining- a percentage that is fairly flexible- and a pattern change is certainly on the horizon. Some of TN's biggest snowstorms occurred in March.

P.S. Think the mid 1990s-2010s is the only period of warm winters with little snowfall here? Check out how the winters of the 1920s-mid 1950s were.
come here for a forecast , no snow for the next 10 days ... there is your forecast ...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 13, 2020, 03:41:45 PM
I think we need a thread for complaining about winter complainers.

I think its just cause there is nothing to really track so what else is there to chat about lol :)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 13, 2020, 04:18:25 PM
come here for a forecast , no snow for the next 10 days ... there is your forecast ...

Add to that no severe wx either!!
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2020, 05:34:19 PM
Add to that no severe wx either!!
actually better chance severe than there is a flurry ... mid week.   Sad
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 13, 2020, 07:06:43 PM
actually better chance severe than there is a flurry ... mid week.   Sad


I donít think anyone is or was expecting any chance of flurry or cold this week. 🤦🏻‍♂️
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: bugalou on January 13, 2020, 08:13:37 PM
I think its just cause there is nothing to really track so what else is there to chat about lol :)
Bingo.  Plus you know all the time I love spending with you fine folks.

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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: mamMATTus on January 13, 2020, 09:37:46 PM
Pretty decent rogue cell over Lebanon currently with some small hail. Didn't see that one coming.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Thundersnow on January 13, 2020, 09:53:07 PM
Pretty decent rogue cell over Lebanon currently with some small hail. Didn't see that one coming.

Iíve been watching that guy. Itís a fast mover too... been traversing Mid TN SW to NE over the last couple of hours.


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cgauxknox on January 14, 2020, 04:53:06 AM
Waking up this morning to torrential rain and a little bit of thunder. Crazy storm for mid January.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Thundersnow on January 14, 2020, 06:13:21 AM
From this weekend through next week, at least it looks like near to below average temps. Perhaps, some days not getting above 40. So, thatís a start.

Thereís enough model consistency to expect a colder pattern. Now, whether itís something that will produce or not- well, weíll see.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 14, 2020, 08:45:41 AM
From this weekend through next week, at least it looks like near to below average temps. Perhaps, some days not getting above 40. So, thatís a start.

Thereís enough model consistency to expect a colder pattern. Now, whether itís something that will produce or not- well, weíll see.

true...at this point I would take some "average" winter temps, even though average doesn't produce snow here, at least it would be a start :)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 14, 2020, 08:50:57 AM
Euro currently has the MJO going into Phase 7 then up and back into Phase 6 again. If that happens, it won't be good. We continue to watch and wait for winter 2020 to arrive.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2020, 08:53:37 AM
Euro currently has the MJO going into Phase 7 then up and back into Phase 6 again. If that happens, it won't be good. We continue to watch and wait for winter 2020 to arrive.
exactly what Iím seeing from the euro also. Till that changes my optimism is going be limited still towards us getting a snow ...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 14, 2020, 09:10:50 AM
exactly what Iím seeing from the euro also. Till that changes my optimism is going be limited still towards us getting a snow ...

The glimmer of hope is that it is going back into Phase 6 at the very end of the run. That could definitely change over the next few days.

Sadly, I think it is pretty certain we aren't going to go through the cold phases for us. I think the best hope at this point is it goes neutral or a very weak signal back into Phase 6 and hope some of the other teleconnections come into play.
Title: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2020, 09:32:31 AM
The glimmer of hope is that it is going back into Phase 6 at the very end of the run. That could definitely change over the next few days.

Sadly, I think it is pretty certain we aren't going to go through the cold phases for us. I think the best hope at this point is it goes neutral or a very weak signal back into Phase 6 and hope some of the other teleconnections come into play.

The euro also had it dying in phase 6- and it corrected. Known bias to kill the MJO way too early. Itís been pretty bad this year. and whatís funny is the ocean diagrams in the euro show a nice healthy phase 8 in the 11-15. I bet it has to correct like it always does. The CFS has actually done a much better job.
Title: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2020, 09:40:44 AM
And by the way, I will take the MJO dying into the upper left quadrant any day. Stalls in the quarter - when I looked at this a few years ago- lead to a really decent winter pattern in our neck of the woods. Thatís exactly where February 15 went.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: TNHunter on January 14, 2020, 09:54:58 AM
Curt, I admire your optimism about cold showing up.  You have been optimistic since late fall.  I hope you are right eventually for all our sake!
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 14, 2020, 10:05:09 AM
Curt, I admire your optimism about cold showing up.  You have been optimistic since late fall.  I hope you are right eventually for all our sake!

It's gonna show up...more likely just a few cold snaps here and there since we are almost through what should be our heart of winter and we have averaged high 50's to low 60's for highs all the way through it :(
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 14, 2020, 10:12:46 AM
Curt always brings good weather points and facts to the table. I love hearing his thoughts even when they aren't good, I enjoy it. And I am optimistic also that we turn colder and hopefully will have some shots at winter weather over the next month. Just need the southern stream to stay active or somewhat active. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 14, 2020, 10:45:44 AM
The euro also had it dying in phase 6- and it corrected. Known bias to kill the MJO way too early. Itís been pretty bad this year. and whatís funny is the ocean diagrams in the euro show a nice healthy phase 8 in the 11-15. I bet it has to correct like it always does. The CFS has actually done a much better job.

Yeah, it's been showing a phase 7 to neutral for a few days now. The last couple of runs shows it going back into 6. Like I said, its late in the run. Just something to monitor.

Also interesting, with the MJO predicted to go neutral, all the teleconnections look to go "neutralish" by the end of Jan. AO, NAO, PNA, all going near neutral.

A driverless pattern, should be interesting.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2020, 10:55:14 AM
Southern jet really active on the 12zgfs... big question now.  Can we get some quality cold air in to meet up with these waves showing one after another... just not quite sure
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 14, 2020, 11:04:45 AM
One thing for sure is the pattern is changing to a colder one.  Average to below average.  Usually law of averages is a pattern holds for about 6 weeks.  I like our chances of having winter mischief.  Also if 6 weeks does come to fruition then that puts spring right on time.  Also if some LR models are right we will want the warmer temps after all is said and done.  Not giving up hope.

I have a friend in BC that since last week has had temps -10 and more.  So cold temps are on our side of globe also.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2020, 06:46:03 AM
Eps model back to a warm look for east. Cold out west again... not seeing a true pattern change to be honest ... just some cold day or two  very transient still... going into February looks actually above average  Hope Iím wrong
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Eric on January 15, 2020, 07:01:30 AM
It's in voodoo land, but isn't she a beaut.  Nice little bowling ball low coming out of Arkansas.  Gone on the next run, guaranteed.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020011500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_55.png)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: TNHunter on January 15, 2020, 08:18:00 AM
To be honest, winter has jacked around long enough and had enough time to show its face.  Come February not many people are thinking about snow, most have their eyes set on the emergence of spring soon.  Would take a warm above average February with sunny days.  Get the fishing and outdoor season started early.  Cold February and March is miserable. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: WXHD on January 15, 2020, 10:15:33 AM
My tulips are already budding.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on January 15, 2020, 10:24:23 AM
Looks cold and dry next week.  But thatís the way it has been for two years now. Hopefully it will at least get rid of a few insects that have been emerging lately.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Thundersnow on January 15, 2020, 10:40:47 AM
Looks cold and dry next week.  But thatís the way it has been for two years now. Hopefully it will at least get rid of a few insects that have been emerging lately.

I'm pretty sure I saw a mayfly in the garage the other day.  ::doh::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2020, 11:23:26 AM
Looks cold and dry next week.  But thatís the way it has been for two years now. Hopefully it will at least get rid of a few insects that have been emerging lately.
this cold coming get rid of insects...? Wish

Post Merge: January 15, 2020, 11:24:32 AM
I got buttercups coming out the ground now ... dead middle January , I never seen them that early .
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 15, 2020, 11:31:45 AM
I got buttercups coming out the ground now ... dead middle January , I never seen them that early .

We've had plenty of warm January's before. This isn't the first and won't be the last.

I remember back around 2007 or 2008, the whole east had a crazy warm January and mets on Accuweather (much more popular back then) were joking about mowing their yards in January.

While we've been warm, Alaska is seeing ridiculous cold for them and that is saying something. We just got the wrong pattern this January, if you like snow and cold.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2020, 11:43:59 AM
this cold coming get rid of insects...? Wish

Post Merge: January 15, 2020, 11:24:32 AM
I got buttercups coming out the ground now ... dead middle January , I never seen them that early .

I have some pet toads that I keep in my garage.  They have not even hibernated this year and are already thinking its spring doing mating calls.  I am going to have to bring them inside if it does get cold because their bio rhythms are fubared from the warmth.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on January 15, 2020, 12:09:26 PM
I have some pet toads that I keep in my garage.  They have not even hibernated this year and are already thinking its spring doing mating calls.  I am going to have to bring them inside if it does get cold because their bio rhythms are fubared from the warmth.

That is really cool.  My granddaughter we are raising would love to do that. She is in the gifted program at school and loves doing that with salamanders and newts.  How did you get started and what kind of frogs are they?
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Coach B on January 15, 2020, 01:01:23 PM
Buttercups pop up early every year at some point. Next week looks cold. Will probably be dry, but that's how we have done it for the last couple of decades so no surprise there. Either way the pattern is changing. The last month and a half outside of a two day cold spell in December has given us no chance of wintry weather. While whats being modeled now may not be the greatest winter weather pattern ever, it is worlds different from what we've been dealing with. I discovered in the great winter of wasted opportunities in 2015 is that all I really need is a week of cold with snow cover at some point to be mostly satisfied. We didn't get it that year until the third week of February. So there is still plenty of time.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 15, 2020, 02:42:31 PM
Yep it we don't have any snow by mid febuary, things will not be looking good. That's the way it goes some years, I wish we could at least get a couple of 2-4 inch type events this year at least. At this point I would take a couple of 2 inch events, but not giving up on winter yet. The next 2 weeks and just how much of a step down we have will probably go along way in determining our chances of seeing much winter weather this year. There is always a punchers chance of a big dog in march but for better chances our best time is approaching. Historically our best winter weather potential is last of jan and first 2 weeks of feb. All we can do is hope.  ::fingerscrossed::::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 15, 2020, 04:17:56 PM
We got a couple of 2 inch snows in Johnson City this winter plus a dusting one other time. In good years we get between 20 and 30 inches. Last year we got the 10 inches in early December and another 2 inch snow and the rest of winter was rain. It seems the last time we had a real snowy winter was 95-96 with over 40 inches. The last 10 years there has only been one winter of over 20 inches. I think our average has been 13.3 inches and where I live is 1,800 feet. Take away the 10 inch snow last winter and we only got 2 more inches. We are only at 4 inches this year so unless something really changes there is not much chance of getting 10 inches. The top of Sugar Mountain at 5,300 feet only has 19 inches so far and I have seen them get 125 for a full winter. We can only hope


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2020, 07:30:45 PM
Happy hour GFS always comes through.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on January 16, 2020, 06:07:20 AM
Any thing 10 days away does not make me hopeful any more.  If it is 2 days I get excited.  But my fingers are 🤞🏻
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2020, 08:21:34 AM
Time frame January 25th to February 7th roughly has my interest, with the pna and ao nao look to go neutral at least .alo tonhelp will be mjo looks to be in phase 8... this couldnand more likely going be our best shot to score a winter storm outside some suprise shot later... southern jet looks stay very active during this time. Keep fingers crossed friends ...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: VandyMachine on January 16, 2020, 08:52:27 AM
Time frame January 25th to February 7th roughly has my interest, with the pna and ao nao look to go neutral at least .alo tonhelp will be mjo looks to be in phase 8... this couldnand more likely going be our best shot to score a winter storm outside some suprise shot later... southern jet looks stay very active during this time. Keep fingers crossed friends ...

This Bruce post I can get behind 😜.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 16, 2020, 09:40:21 AM
Where is it!? We need some ⛄️
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 16, 2020, 09:49:54 AM
Happy hour GFS always comes through.


(Attachment Link)

Beautiful lol....at least we will finally be getting our first REAL cold snap since November, hopefully they will come for often and actually become a pattern and we can get at least just ONE good gulf low to dump down some snow :)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: bugalou on January 16, 2020, 11:08:35 AM
The west based negative NAO that appears to be setting up and the active southern stream screams ice storm for a large swath of the area (along with some good snows for *someone*).  This setup is going to put much of TN on the base of the trough of the polar jet and the west based NAO is going to flatten that out.  The southern stream is going to want to jump that like a ramp and overrun it, especially going in to Feb as the cold sinks and spreads out.

If things develop like this we will likely have an fairly active period for a few weeks.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2020, 11:24:28 AM
The west based negative NAO that appears to be setting up and the active southern stream screams ice storm for a large swath of the area (along with some good snows for *someone*).  This setup is going to put much of TN on the base of the trough of the polar jet and the west based NAO is going to flatten that out.  The southern stream is going to want to jump that like a ramp and overrun it, especially going in to Feb as the cold sinks and spreads out.

If things develop like this we will likely have an fairly active period for a few weeks.
period like I said ... has a good chance to develop a storm that phases ...  start looking for some fantasy storms to pop on the models here soon... some could be big dogs too...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on January 16, 2020, 11:35:12 AM
Really don't understand what you guys are seeing. I give up on winter outside of a rogue snowflake or flurry.....
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: bugalou on January 16, 2020, 11:47:08 AM
Really don't understand what you guys are seeing. I give up on winter outside of a rogue snowflake or flurry.....

Not sure where you are looking but its out there.  See this video its informative:
https://youtu.be/pIJDvQPnXFw
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 16, 2020, 03:08:07 PM
Everyone should be enjoying saving some money on heating this month. Mine kicks on once a day and it really doesn't even need to, its just stretching its legs so it doesn't seize up.   ::bagoverhead::

Post Merge: January 16, 2020, 03:23:32 PM
Not sure where you are looking but its out there.  See this video its informative:
https://youtu.be/pIJDvQPnXFw

I think we are going to need more time, unfortunately. Good post by BAMWX today.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1217809331976052740 (https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1217809331976052740)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 16, 2020, 03:41:01 PM
Well it sure looks like another head fake with a cold period coming up.  Which does not surprise me.  Models have become quiet unpredictable after 5 days.  10 days is fantasy land anymore.  Who is right GFS or Euro?  I know which one my bet will be placed on.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Coach B on January 16, 2020, 03:56:22 PM
I think we are going to need more time, unfortunately. Good post by BAMWX today.

I think you are right. Looks like a couple steps forward this weekend and then a step back. Hopefully we can squeeze in a good week or two of winter sometime in February. El Ninos are fully capable of that. We may end up hoping for nothing more than a Hail Mary storm somewhere in there, but we've done that before too. The one good thing about the next two or three weeks is that they are the peak of our winter weather climo. So we could conceivably sneak something in without major cold, but it'll take some luck.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clay on January 16, 2020, 05:29:46 PM
If any consolation, this has been a disastrous start to winter for the entire eastern half of the country. Philly still sitting at a trace of snow.  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cbrentv318 on January 16, 2020, 07:08:35 PM
Not sure where you are looking but its out there.  See this video its informative:
https://youtu.be/pIJDvQPnXFw
Do you watch POW Ponder on Weather? He is from Dallas.
https://youtu.be/U6yCtrkMOv8



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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 17, 2020, 01:08:42 PM
Nashville is currently sitting at +12 above normal for this month which rivals 1890 and 2006 as the warmest start to a January.  I do feel like we should at least be around average for the 2nd half but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Top 12 or even Top 10 finish for this month just due to how warm we started.   

Post Merge: January 17, 2020, 05:12:03 PM
Stevens Pass, Washington has reported 149 inches of snow so far this month.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Uncle Nasty on January 17, 2020, 06:01:10 PM
February 7th, 2020 for a major part of Tennessee, northern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. There will be a 1 day window depending on speed so let's go with February 6-8th time frame. Don't ask how I know just mark it down. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200117/cad12e8199d3b76ff4108acff0b79af2.jpg)

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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on January 17, 2020, 06:46:37 PM
The Euro's latest MJO forecast is fool's gold: We enter phases 7 and 8 for a few days, only to sink back to where we are now.

Conversely, the GFS is bullish on below normal temperatures in the Eastern U.S., showing us entering phases 7 and 8 without pause.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 18, 2020, 08:34:17 AM
After this 3 day period of cold coming up Sunday through Tuesday it shows back in the 50ís through February 1st. Time for a flip seems to be slipping away


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 18, 2020, 09:13:44 AM
One huge problem with this winter is that the thing that has for the most part been on our side these past 8-10 years the -EPO has been strongly + this year. That just allows for nice mild Pacific air to flood the USA and most of Canada.   

The combination of an unfavorable MJO, unfavorable EPO, and unusually warm SST's fueled by climate change across the Northern Hemisphere is looking like it will be too much to overcome even with a favorable ENSO and even if the Atlantic was to become favorable it would be too little against those 3. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 18, 2020, 11:01:13 AM
I used to get upset at no snow but donít these days.  I would much rather have 50ís than just dry cold or cold rain.  If it snows then that would be awesome.  One thing we have learned past few years is models are lost after 10 days. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: bugalou on January 18, 2020, 11:16:58 AM
One huge problem with this winter is that the thing that has for the most part been on our side these past 8-10 years the -EPO has been strongly + this year. That just allows for nice mild Pacific air to flood the USA and most of Canada.   

The combination of an unfavorable MJO, unfavorable EPO, and unusually warm SST's fueled by climate change across the Northern Hemisphere is looking like it will be too much to overcome even with a favorable ENSO and even if the Atlantic was to become favorable it would be too little against those 3.

The EPO driven subtropical jet has been insane this year.  The west coast cashed in for sure pretty much from LA to Seattle and northwards into CA.  Sadly for us its just rain and transient cool/warm shots.  This pattern has been in place for 2 months time though and I still think we will have a couple chances for something in Feb.  Australia is finally getting some widespread rains so the MJO is finally moving.  I still have hope folks.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: JHart on January 18, 2020, 01:25:02 PM
It appears we will have yet another winter of discontent... and mildew.  :-\
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 18, 2020, 01:41:16 PM
The EPO driven subtropical jet has been insane this year.  The west coast cashed in for sure pretty much from LA to Seattle and northwards into CA.  Sadly for us its just rain and transient cool/warm shots.  This pattern has been in place for 2 months time though and I still think we will have a couple chances for something in Feb.  Australia is finally getting some widespread rains so the MJO is finally moving.  I still have hope folks.  ::fingerscrossed::

The chances, especially for NW TN, are there just based on climo.  It is very rare for West KY or NW TN to go an entire Dec-Feb event without at least one Advisory level event.  The last time that occurred in that area was 1991-92. 

Even the crapfest winters of 2001-02, 2011-12, and 2016-17 featured at least one advisory level event during the 3 winter months.  There are still some model uncertainties on what the polar vortex does but some are showing it taking its cold air and dumping it on Russia/East Europe like in 2011-12 and the GFS wants to give us a shot.  The MJO progression is uncertain with some looping back into Phase 5/6 after a short stay in 7 and others going to 7, 8, and COD which is more favorable. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 18, 2020, 01:42:27 PM
The Euro gives eastern Arkansas and Memphis a dusting on Tuesday.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Charles L. on January 18, 2020, 02:11:40 PM
It appears we will have yet another winter of discontent... and mildew.  :-\

These allergies have taken a beating to my body so far. Everything is so damp.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 18, 2020, 02:32:19 PM
 :(
These allergies have taken a beating to my body so far. Everything is so damp.
:(

Post Merge: January 18, 2020, 02:35:33 PM
These allergies have taken a beating to my body so far. Everything is so damp.
never seen the grass get this green this early.  Unreal...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 18, 2020, 02:52:49 PM
as usual we will get our quick cold shot with no moisture and then moderating temps right away :(
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on January 18, 2020, 04:24:14 PM
So far, this is the warmest January I can remember.

But I'm only 22, so that doesn't say too much  ;D


Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: wfrogge on January 18, 2020, 04:26:00 PM
I still donít see this cold that yíall are.  All I see is warm and if we get a system with this warm it might lead to some severe [attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Thundersnow on January 18, 2020, 06:32:35 PM
I still donít see this cold that yíall are.  All I see is warm and if we get a system with this warm it might lead to some severe (Attachment Link)

Uh- not supposed to get out of the 30s for the next three days.

But, thatís about all the cold air to be seen in the near future after it warms up later in the week.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 18, 2020, 10:40:54 PM
I still donít see this cold that yíall are.  All I see is warm and if we get a system with this warm it might lead to some severe (Attachment Link)

Just because that map shows warmer than average temps does not mean way above normal.  From what I see is 50ís. Which gonna be hard to have severe wx with those temps.  Iíd say letís just enjoy.  A lot of bushes are starting to green up I have noticed.  My worries are a freeze later that kills a lot of vegetation
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 18, 2020, 11:11:03 PM
Just because that map shows warmer than average temps does not mean way above normal.  From what I see is 50ís. Which gonna be hard to have severe wx with those temps.  Iíd say letís just enjoy.  A lot of bushes are starting to green up I have noticed.  My worries are a freeze later that kills a lot of vegetation
and your surprised if that happens... itís the new norms... not going snow. Hope it stays warm at least we can enjoy being outside ... biggest plus to me is lower heating bills . Best part... severe weather season canít get here fast enough for me....
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: bugalou on January 19, 2020, 12:23:16 AM
I still donít see this cold that yíall are.  All I see is warm and if we get a system with this warm it might lead to some severe (Attachment Link)

Thats because we are just looking at signals in the pattern. Its still nearly impossible to predict things that fair out, but we can look at the pattern and the forecasts for those oscillation signals and derive a general feel for what could happen if things evolve in this fashion.

Also keep in mind TN is a big state.  Things from me are generally said with western TN in mind.  The pattern is likely not great either way for east TN IMO (sorry guys!).
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 19, 2020, 04:16:51 AM
Thats because we are just looking at signals in the pattern. Its still nearly impossible to predict things that fair out, but we can look at the pattern and the forecasts for those oscillation signals and derive a general feel for what could happen if things evolve in this fashion.

Also keep in mind TN is a big state.  Things from me are generally said with western TN in mind.  The pattern is likely not great either way for east TN IMO (sorry guys!).
pattern really donít look to good for anyone east of Rockies  for winter ... even the northeast  is far behind snowfall averages
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 19, 2020, 07:39:04 AM
The last time and only time both Nashville and Memphis had a winter where all 3 months finished +5 or greater was 1889-1890, which was a Strong La-Nina winter.

My prediction is for February to finish about +3 for Memphis and +4 to +4.9 for Nashville.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 19, 2020, 08:31:52 AM
The last time and only time both Nashville and Memphis had a winter where all 3 months finished +5 or greater was 1889-1890, which was a Strong La-Nina winter.

My prediction is for February to finish about +3 for Memphis and +4 to +4.9 for Nashville.   
we are at our coldest average right now climo wise... we only go up average temp wise from here ...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 19, 2020, 09:47:24 AM
It should also be noted that winters that have an unfavorable EPO and are above average for most of the USA tend to feature extreme warmth in the month of March (see 2007, 2012, 2016, and 2017).  The idea of throwing up a hail mary in March is quite unlikely because on past winters with this setup.  We will need to figure out some way to thread the needle in February.   

Since we have cold air bottled up in the Arctic if we have a blowtorch Feb-March then a big concern would develop for a late March-April freeze.  2017's occurred soon enough into March to not be a huge problem but 2007 was and if the 2012 April frost was a few degrees cooler than it would have been a problem.  We would need to hope that either the pattern maintains through April or the pattern is very progressive to limit the impact of possible Freeze.   
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Drifter49 on January 19, 2020, 09:49:46 AM
RIP winter 2019/2020

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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 19, 2020, 09:59:47 AM
Might have to stay up late tonight and see some flakes. That dusting in November was a long time ago.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 19, 2020, 10:44:22 AM
All I know is this cold wo snow sucks.  Give me sunny and 50ís & 60ís. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: StormNine on January 19, 2020, 06:33:11 PM
The pattern model for the end of this month stinks but it isn't the blowtorch that Christmas to 1/15 was. 

It resembles more of a classic El-Nino with an active subtropical jet and a Pacific invasion over Canada and the northern tier of the USA.  Probably more of a Portland, OR or Eureka, CA torch with mild and gray days instead of the predominantly altering sunny/stormy blowtorch conditions we saw before. 

Post Merge: January 19, 2020, 06:36:59 PM
https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,3932.0.html

We do have a vault where one can nominate past events from 2006-present so one doesn't have to dig for it. Think of it as the TN and surrounding areas Hall of Fame.  I will also include an occasional pre-2006 event with a detailed event summary as well as time allows.   

I already nominated 3 winter events.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 19, 2020, 08:22:35 PM
The pattern model for the end of this month stinks but it isn't the blowtorch that Christmas to 1/15 was. 

It resembles more of a classic El-Nino with an active subtropical jet and a Pacific invasion over Canada and the northern tier of the USA.  Probably more of a Portland, OR or Eureka, CA torch with mild and gray days instead of the predominantly altering sunny/stormy blowtorch conditions we saw before. 

Post Merge: January 19, 2020, 06:36:59 PM
https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,3932.0.html

We do have a vault where one can nominate past events from 2006-present so one doesn't have to dig for it. Think of it as the TN and surrounding areas Hall of Fame.  I will also include an occasional pre-2006 event with a detailed event summary as well as time allows.   

I already nominated 3 winter events.
i call upper 50s lower 60s in middle end January blowtorch...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Icestorm on January 20, 2020, 03:40:37 AM
Currently I have snow flurries and 19 degrees.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: NismoWx on January 20, 2020, 05:46:47 AM
Flurries and 21įF, IMBY.

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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2020, 06:05:41 AM
Currently I have snow flurries and 19 degrees.
well you can officially now say... you didnít get shut out this winter at least... lol.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2020, 06:41:08 AM
Very light snow and 19. Little bit of lake enhancement maybe?
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on January 20, 2020, 07:08:41 AM
Flurries here and 18 degrees!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2020, 08:46:04 AM
We have flurries here. Temp is 19.Yeah!! ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: dwagner88 on January 20, 2020, 08:46:33 AM
I even have a few flakes in the air on this side of the plateau. 24 degrees and no sun.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 20, 2020, 08:54:43 AM
This weekend looks interesting in Johnson City for maybe a little light snow. The long range has been trending colder for Saturday and Sunday with highs now in the upper 30ís and lows around 30. Nothing to get to excited about but this winter has been tough to find anything exciting for snow. We had a couple of 2 inch events by December 10th and only a dusting since. It will probably trend warmer by the weekend. It still shows precipitation here Saturday and Sunday as of now


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Drifter49 on January 20, 2020, 09:04:03 AM
I'm in Jackson and seeing a few flakes down this way

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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cgauxknox on January 20, 2020, 09:11:38 AM
Just a few flurries here and there in West Knoxville at the moment, but the wind chill is no joke!  ::cold::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2020, 09:29:42 AM
I'm in Jackson and seeing a few flakes down this way

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10 4  on that... :D
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: JHart on January 20, 2020, 09:45:19 AM
We are getting a nice snow shower out here in Lascassas at the moment. It is a pleasant surprise Ö and if I squint, I can even see a little white along the edge of sidewalk.  #blizzardof2020  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2020, 09:52:13 AM
I think this a fetch off Lake Michigan fwiw... the wind direction is right.

This may be our token mid-winter snow day this year. Make of it what you can.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2020, 09:59:44 AM
i call upper 50s lower 60s in middle end January blowtorch...

I call it perfect wx. 


As for today cold and a flizzard is not fun at all. Just a smack in face by winter.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on January 20, 2020, 10:05:43 AM
I am enjoying it. But I definitely would not want to be out in it. My almost 8 yr old granddaughter would prefer more though.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: joemomma on January 20, 2020, 10:06:05 AM
Still getting some light snow in Cookeville.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 20, 2020, 10:13:55 AM
I was just checking the extended for this week and the weather channel extended for Sugar Mountain shows 5-8 inches for Friday and 3-5 inches for Friday night. It will probably change by tomorrow but that is the first time all winter they have shown that even for those guys. They are 45 minutes east of Johnson City but we are 1,800 feet and they are 4,000 to 5,000. There must be a gulf low suppose to form with marginal cold air


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2020, 11:13:17 AM
A decent coating at my parents house in Westmoreland.[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2020, 11:23:47 AM
I call it perfect wx. 
No. Perfect weather is mid 90s... seriously

As for today cold and a flizzard is not fun at all. Just a smack in face by winter.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on January 20, 2020, 11:51:52 AM
Flurries are tapering off here
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2020, 01:57:45 PM
We still have a few flurries flying here.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 20, 2020, 02:01:16 PM
how sad and snow starved we must be to get excited about a few flurries lol
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2020, 02:15:39 PM
how sad and snow starved we must be to get excited about a few flurries lol
thinking same thing... pic saw earlier I mean appreciate nice pics ... but I seen many frost that made ground much more whiter lol
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2020, 02:19:19 PM
thinking same thing... pic saw earlier I mean appreciate nice pics ... but I seen many frost that made ground much more whiter lol

Sorry, thought this was a weather forum? ::shrug::

Guess Iíll just leave and stop posting.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 20, 2020, 02:37:00 PM
Sorry, thought this was a weather forum? ::shrug::

Guess Iíll just leave and stop posting.

that's not what I meant at all....I just meant in years past flurries never excited me...and now they do because I haven't seen accumulating snow for 2 straight winters so far lol
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: bugalou on January 20, 2020, 03:02:07 PM
Lack of winter is putting us in withdrawal and cranky.   ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Icestorm on January 20, 2020, 03:57:22 PM
Well Bruce, maybe we will get back to severe weather soon and you'll get a tornado to drop right down on your house and destroy it, since that's what you desire. Look I posted with nothing misspelled. LOL! Wish Bruce could.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2020, 04:01:20 PM
Well Bruce, maybe we will get back to severe weather soon and you'll get a tornado to drop right down on your house and destroy it, since that's what you desire. Look I posted with nothing misspelled. LOL! Wish Bruce could.
u cheated ... Iím sure

Post Merge: January 20, 2020, 04:03:10 PM
Lack of winter is putting us in withdrawal and cranky.   ::rofl::
get used to it... lol
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2020, 04:21:42 PM
Deep winter kind of day. I appreciate at least a taste of all four seasons so I like a few days like this. Never saw the sun, high was only 24, and flakes in the air nearly all day. Only thing that could have made it better would have been to have a little snow on the ground.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on January 20, 2020, 04:23:29 PM
Sorry, thought this was a weather forum? ::shrug::

Guess Iíll just leave and stop posting.

Donít you dare leave Charles!  I always enjoy your posts.  Otherís need to learn to just chill out. I think the flurries have been quite nice to watch today.  Would much rather have that than devastation, destruction, and loss of life. 

CAN WE PLEASE QUIT BEING RUDE IN HERE?  So many of us have been in this forum for many years and we pull together when we need too.  The weather is probably the only thing that we cannot control.  Yes a really nice Snowstorm would be awesome. Some years it just doesnít happen.  I believe it will happen again.
Patience is a Virtue! And lots of  ::bacon:: is great too!!! 😊
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2020, 04:30:12 PM
Donít you dare leave Charles!  I always enjoy your posts.  Otherís need to learn to just chill out. I think the flurries have been quite nice to watch today.  Would much rather have that than devastation, destruction, and loss of life. 

CAN WE PLEASE QUIT BEING RUDE IN HERE?  So many of us have been in this forum for many years and we pull together when we need too.  The weather is probably the only thing that we cannot control.  Yes a really nice Snowstorm would be awesome. Some years it just doesnít happen.  I believe it will happen again.
Patience is a Virtue! And lots of  ::bacon:: is great too!!! 😊
enjoy the weather, because itís the only weather we have ... lol
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2020, 04:39:34 PM
Afternoon AFD from OHX. They don't rule out a dusting overnight. As cold as it is it wouldn't take much:

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
223 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Well, today has been an unexpected treat for some. Flurries and
light snow have led to several spots in Middle TN seeing brief
accumulations. I did see one picture from Lafayette that looked to
be close to a half inch based on grass covering. However, for most,
flurries were the story for the day, giving those who had the day
off a pretty view. For those who want more of the same, I don`t
think you`re going to have to wait long as an upper level impulse is
expected to dive into the region this evening and provide more
flurries overnight. Regional radar is showing this feature back
over central MO at forecast time. A dusting isn`t out of the
question for areas southwest of the Metro area,
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cgauxknox on January 20, 2020, 04:46:38 PM
CAN WE PLEASE QUIT BEING RUDE IN HERE?  So many of us have been in this forum for many years and we pull together when we need too.  The weather is probably the only thing that we cannot control.  Yes a really nice Snowstorm would be awesome. Some years it just doesnít happen.  I believe it will happen again.
Patience is a Virtue! And lots of  ::bacon:: is great too!!! 😊

 ::applause::  ::applause::  ::applause::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2020, 06:04:44 PM
The snow on radar moving into NE Arkansas is making it to the ground. My dad has a heavy dusting just south of Poplar Bluff
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on January 20, 2020, 06:45:32 PM
It's been flurrying throughout the day here. Nothing too fascinating, but a day like today does serve as a reminder that winter, while largely absent, is still with us. All it takes is a cold punch.

Others called me strange- and they may be right- but I found it to be quite nice out today. The forested areas were speckled with frozen ponds, coated with a dusting. And compliments of the hard freeze, the ground was no longer wet mush.


Here's the latest MJO forecast, released by NOAA. It appears to buckle back towards the winter enthusiasts' side: phases 8, 1, and 2. Those are the phases that can Make February Winter Again. Forecasting beyond one week out is capricious, of course, but observing the trends is what matters.

Bugalou, I believe you mentioned something about thunderstorms finally gracing Australia, which is could be a harbinger of change for our corner of the world, correct? I have hope things will change. Even the unbelievably torchy winter of 2011-2012 featured a few cold shots with a couple of light snowfalls; I recall some wet snow falling and sticking in mid-February of 2012. Plenty of time left, don't get too discouraged.

Post Merge: January 20, 2020, 06:46:38 PM
As promised

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2020, 07:08:46 PM
It's been flurrying throughout the day here. Nothing too fascinating, but a day like today does serve as a reminder that winter, while largely absent, is still with us. All it takes is a cold punch.

Others called me strange- and they may be right- but I found it to be quite nice out today. The forested areas were speckled with frozen ponds, coated with a dusting. And compliments of the hard freeze, the ground was no longer wet mush.


Here's the latest MJO forecast, released by NOAA. It appears to buckle back towards the winter enthusiasts' side: phases 8, 1, and 2. Those are the phases that can Make February Winter Again. Forecasting beyond one week out is capricious, of course, but observing the trends is what matters.

Bugalou, I believe you mentioned something about thunderstorms finally gracing Australia, which is could be a harbinger of change for our corner of the world, correct? I have hope things will change. Even the unbelievably torchy winter of 2011-2012 featured a few cold shots with a couple of light snowfalls; I recall some wet snow falling and sticking in mid-February of 2012. Plenty of time left, don't get too discouraged.

Post Merge: January 20, 2020, 06:46:38 PM
As promised

(Attachment Link)
everything I read n searched ... this bad boy is heading back to phase 4 and 5 late this month ...☹️
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2020, 08:06:27 PM
Donít you dare leave Charles!  I always enjoy your posts.  Otherís need to learn to just chill out. I think the flurries have been quite nice to watch today.  Would much rather have that than devastation, destruction, and loss of life. 

CAN WE PLEASE QUIT BEING RUDE IN HERE?  So many of us have been in this forum for many years and we pull together when we need too.  The weather is probably the only thing that we cannot control.  Yes a really nice Snowstorm would be awesome. Some years it just doesnít happen.  I believe it will happen again.
Patience is a Virtue! And lots of  ::bacon:: is great too!!!

Well said, Beth. For those rude posters, those that troll, those that post inaccurate info, or those that just plain get on your nerves....we have a nice ďignoreĒ feature. If youíre not quoted often, itís a good chance your ignored and probably donít even know it.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on January 20, 2020, 08:22:56 PM
everything I read n searched ... this bad boy is heading back to phase 4 and 5 late this month ...☹️

Could you provide some sources? I would like to read them

Post Merge: January 20, 2020, 08:27:55 PM
Well said, Beth. For those rude posters, those that troll, those that post inaccurate info, or those that just plain get on your nerves....we have a nice ďignoreĒ feature. If youíre not quoted often, itís a good chance your ignored and probably donít even know it.

Conversely, could we also do an @ feature? That would be useful 👍
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2020, 08:30:04 PM
Could you provide some sources? I would like to read them

Post Merge: January 20, 2020, 08:27:55 PM
Conversely, could we also do an @ feature? That would be useful 👍
that would be American wx my friend.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cbrentv318 on January 20, 2020, 08:36:53 PM
Could you provide some sources? I would like to read them

Post Merge: January 20, 2020, 08:27:55 PM
Conversely, could we also do an @ feature? That would be useful




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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: TNHunter on January 20, 2020, 09:08:23 PM
This winter has been really close to a carbon copy of last years winter. Snow and cold early November, warm and wet December and early January. Quick cold shot with a dusting of snow MLK weekend and then back to warm and wet to end January.

Pretty sure the events from last year to this years winter are really really close.  Kind of weird to have 2 such similar winters back to back like that IMO. Yíall agree?
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2020, 09:52:53 PM
Hopefully the MJO does a head fake into 6 before leaving quickly. GEFS has it leaving 6 quickly and heading to 1-2. This is not a torch pattern by any stretch. High temps almost never leave the 40ís and most lows are close to freezing.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2020, 11:13:12 PM
everything I read n searched ... this bad boy is heading back to phase 4 and 5 late this month ...☹️

Seems one would learn when predicting severe wx months in advance that never happens.  Why would you believe what the mojo forecast is more than 10 days out.  Letís just enjoy the wx we have that you said and see what happens.  Wx should not make our daily lives miserable.  Yeah some days wx sucks but some days wx is fabulous.  It all evens out eventually.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2020, 04:12:31 AM
Hopefully we all can learn something from this frustrating winter we are having again. Just because the coldest weather is on our side globe doesnít mean it will automatically make down to the lower 48 states  . You can thank the crummy pacific for spilling in mostly pacific air to us.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2020, 07:17:54 AM
Thought this was great info from OHX in regards to yesterday's weather being quite different than was forecast. As a lifelong resident I've seen the day after a winter storm or strong cold front work out like yesterday numerous times.

Quote
National Weather Service Nashville TN
225 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Well, it looks like those few models that held on to the cloud
cover yesterday morning through the day were correct. Overall,
models were not any help with the snow in the morning into the
afternoon, and that seems to be the case when an unresolved (in
the models) low cloud deck comes in with temperatures in the mid
teens to low 20s at the surface. Initial thought without diving
into the data too deep from yesterday morning is that some weak
lift was able to squeeze out some larger flakes in the snow growth
zone which just happened to coincide with the moisture in the low
cloud deck. Since the models not only did not have the low
clouds, and did not have clouds in the afternoon, they were not
able to resolve the snow/flurries potential yesterday morning.
Something to keep in mind in case those conditions develop in the
future, and satellite/radar trends look to keep cloud cover and
snow potential much longer.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: joemomma on January 21, 2020, 12:55:19 PM
What are the chances this weekend's rain/snow mix is more snow than rain in Big South Fork?  Thinking about getting some hiking/camping in, and would much prefer snow to rain.  The last couple of days it has gone from rain to rain/snow.  Hoping the trend continues.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Crockett on January 21, 2020, 02:12:50 PM
What are the chances this weekend's rain/snow mix is more snow than rain in Big South Fork?  Thinking about getting some hiking/camping in, and would much prefer snow to rain.  The last couple of days it has gone from rain to rain/snow.  Hoping the trend continues.

It looks like rain to me, unfortunately.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2020, 03:36:26 PM
I saw where the CMC had a major upgrade with two new super computers. Supposed to put the GFS a distant third in verification.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on January 21, 2020, 04:15:22 PM
That's awesome! O, Canada...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2020, 04:52:22 PM
I saw where the CMC had a major upgrade with two new super computers. Supposed to put the GFS a distant third in verification.
Wouldn't take much to do that lol

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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2020, 07:17:45 PM
I saw where the CMC had a major upgrade with two new super computers. Supposed to put the GFS a distant third in verification.

Gfs is actually 4th in verification behind UKMET, CMC, and of course the Euro.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2020, 07:22:50 PM
Gfs is actually 4th in verification behind UKMET, CMC, and of course the Euro.
and number 5 is the gefs...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2020, 07:27:08 PM
and number 5 is the gefs...

No the GEFS is an ensemble not a single operational run. Itís purpose and resolution is complete different than operations runs- as is the EPS (Euro Ensemble) and Canadian Ensemble.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2020, 07:37:46 PM
No the GEFS is an ensemble not a single operational run. Itís purpose and resolution is complete different than operations runs- as is the EPS (Euro Ensemble) and Canadian Ensemble.
it does run 3 times daily correct?
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2020, 07:40:50 PM
it does run 3 times daily correct?

GEFS and EPS run 4xís. Canadian ensemble runs twice.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: dwagner88 on January 22, 2020, 07:39:23 AM
The GFS is trying to suggest that the precip Thursday could begin briefly as ZR. Doesn't take much of that to cause major issues.
Title: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2020, 08:46:00 AM
Thereís good agreement on MJO and itís progression now. Most every model does a quick loop-d- loop next week in low amplitude 5 or 6 before its march back into the middle of the COD. That should help push moderate colder air back into the central US by early February. We are going to have an active southern jet. Climo can still argue for some rather juicy systems that can use the cold air. If you want more winter like conditions, February will probably be more conducive than January- as is the norm around these parts as of late.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2020, 09:30:04 AM
Thereís good agreement on MJO and itís progression now. Most every model does a quick loop-d- loop next week in low amplitude 5 or 6 before its march back into the middle of the COD. That should help push moderate colder air back into the central US by early February. We are going to have an active southern jet. Climo can still argue for some rather juicy systems that can use the cold air. If you want more winter like conditions, February will probably be more conducive than January- as is the norm around these parts as of late.

I'm interested to see what drives the pattern come first part of Feb and how it plays out. All teleconnections seem to be going neutralish, except AO it is still positive. I'm also shocked the PV has remained as strong as it is, that is very unusual for low solar years.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2020, 11:17:39 AM
End of month system looks interesting to me. Right now looks like a miller a type effecting more of east tn. But there is time for that system to have a nw trend to it. I like the look at 9-10 days out. Just something I think bears watching especially for east tn at the moment. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 22, 2020, 11:20:45 AM
End of month system looks interesting to me. Right now looks like a miller a type effecting more of east tn. But there is time for that system to have a nw trend to it. I like the look at 9-10 days out. Just something I think bears watching especially for east tn at the moment. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
ensembles of Gfs has this a major apps runner ... get enough cold air things could get interesting last of this month which I have been honking about . ::coffee::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on January 22, 2020, 11:23:01 AM
This week's cold weather is more sustained than what was forecasted. A few days ago, local mets expected my area to see temperatures cresting 50 by today, but now we aren't expected to get above 45. We may not even hit the 50s until early next week. Finally, we have returned to what is daytime average- though the nighttime lows will be a little warmer than average.

Post Merge: January 22, 2020, 11:28:56 AM
ensembles of Gfs has this a major apps runner ... get enough cold air things could get interesting last of this month which I have been honking about . ::coffee::

Um... No you haven't "been honking about" this. All due respect, Bruce, none of your recent posts have suggested anything like that. In fact, you've shrugged off other posts indicating that a more wintry pattern will be in the cards for us.

Come on man, I'm not trying to be a jerk, but I do believe you're just making things up  ::pondering::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 22, 2020, 11:38:44 AM
This week's cold weather is more sustained than what was forecasted. A few days ago, local mets expected my area to see temperatures cresting 50 by today, but now we aren't expected to get above 45. We may not even hit the 50s until early next week. Finally, we have returned to what is daytime average- though the nighttime lows will be a little warmer than average.

Post Merge: January 22, 2020, 11:28:56 AM
Um... No you haven't "been honking about" this. All due respect, Bruce, none of your recent posts have suggested anything like that. In fact, you've shrugged off other posts indicating that a more wintry pattern will be in the cards for us.

Come on man, I'm not trying to be a jerk, but I do believe you're just making things up  ::pondering::
either u have a very short memory or you r being a jerk... go back n read.  I say period January 25 th to February 8th holds some winter potential...  just read back  . Jesus
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: cgauxknox on January 22, 2020, 11:41:44 AM
So does anybody have a recommendation for a good weather forum?  If I want middle school kind of drama I'm sure I can stream something from the CW....
 ::bangingheadintowall::  ::rant::  ::bangingheadintowall::  ::rant::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 22, 2020, 11:54:39 AM
Time frame January 25th to February 7th roughly has my interest, with the pna and ao nao look to go neutral at least .alo tonhelp will be mjo looks to be in phase 8... this couldnand more likely going be our best shot to score a winter storm outside some suprise shot later... southern jet looks stay very active during this time. Keep fingers crossed friends ...
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Scot on January 22, 2020, 11:55:13 AM
pattern really donít look to good for anyone east of Rockies  for winter ... even the northeast  is far behind snowfall averages

Bruce, maybe you thought you posted this on another forum?

Post Merge: January 22, 2020, 11:58:48 AM
that would be American wx my friend.

Bruce, this one too?
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: schneitzeit on January 22, 2020, 11:58:52 AM
either u have a very short memory or you r being a jerk... go back n read.  I say period January 25 th to February 8th holds some winter potential...  just read back  . Jesus

I apologize for not sifting back through your previous eighteen posts to find your prediction. Perhaps if you tried posting with correct grammar, the rest of us could interpret what you are trying to say. It isn't hard to do.

And excuse me for trying to be civil. Take a hint from others that you should write in proper English and provide sources when you wish to post (often errant) predictions. I probably would have noticed your prediction if the past dozen or so posts from you hadn't been tripe. You are a God-awful poster.

TchŁss
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Crockett on January 22, 2020, 12:01:46 PM
Let's drop the name-calling and personal insults, please. We can disagree -- even harshly -- without that.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 22, 2020, 12:03:19 PM
I apologize for not sifting back through your previous eighteen posts to find your prediction. Perhaps if you tried posting with correct grammar, the rest of us could interpret what you are trying to say. It isn't hard to do.

And excuse me for trying to be civil. Take a hint from others that you should write in proper English and provide sources when you wish to post (often errant) predictions. I probably would have noticed your prediction if the past dozen or so posts from you hadn't been tripe. You are a God-awful poster.

TchŁss
dont have much time to spend on social media ... sorry feel that way bout way i post ... I got a real life outside this forum . Promise u
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Mister2011 on January 22, 2020, 12:03:41 PM
Long time lurker... posts like these are why I will always be a lurker and stick to AmericanWx. Cant believe someone seriously is dogging someone about grammar... on a weather enthusiast forum...

Why people gotta get so butt-hurt??  ::pondering:: ::whistling::

 ::flag:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 22, 2020, 12:07:31 PM
I just wish people would remember nobody on this forum is a nuclear physicist or has the AMS seal of approval that I know of, and all anybody can post is their personal "opinion" on what they think might happen, and we all have a right to do it respectfully without getting bashed.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: bugalou on January 22, 2020, 12:44:33 PM
Back to the weather folks.
I realize the lack of events is making us all cranky, but lets not turn on each other.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2020, 12:52:34 PM
It's hard enough making predictions 5 days out much less 10 days out. But the models are trending in a better direction at the very end of the month. Historically our peak time for winter storms is generally the last of jan and the first of feb, that is no big secret. That system on the 31st-1st for 9-10 days out is in a good spot at the moment, that doesn't mean we will get a snow. But I feel that the 31st-7th time frame could be a good chance for at least some of the forum. At least the pattern seems to be changing going into Febuary in general. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: gcbama on January 22, 2020, 01:43:53 PM
Back to the weather folks.
I realize the lack of events is making us all cranky, but lets not turn on each other.

agreed
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on January 22, 2020, 03:51:45 PM
I just think that everyone needs a big dose of  ::bacon:: ::bacon:: ::bacon:: ;)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: ryandourius on January 22, 2020, 04:46:19 PM
Long time lurker... posts like these are why I will always be a lurker and stick to AmericanWx. Cant believe someone seriously is dogging someone about grammar... on a weather enthusiast forum...

Why people gotta get so butt-hurt??  ::pondering:: ::whistling::

 ::flag:: ::snowman::

Agreed!
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2020, 04:49:00 PM
I apologize for not sifting back through your previous eighteen posts to find your prediction. Perhaps if you tried posting with correct grammar, the rest of us could interpret what you are trying to say. It isn't hard to do.

And excuse me for trying to be civil. Take a hint from others that you should write in proper English and provide sources when you wish to post (often errant) predictions. I probably would have noticed your prediction if the past dozen or so posts from you hadn't been tripe. You are a poster I might not always agree with but glad you're here.

TchŁss

Fixed that for you.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Michael on January 22, 2020, 05:10:31 PM
Ok. I break this argument forum for some potential winter weather in the 2 weeks...

13 days out. What could go wrong? (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200122/5b2675e190291af72fc925eb063fe330.jpg)

But what really has my attention is this thing...9 days out. Been showing up for multiple runs now. Still time to get more organized before running up the coast. Plus, itís SE of us. NW trend? (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200122/502b12f05f0385a37d977cdbdb3f8319.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Eric on January 22, 2020, 07:13:30 PM
I think some of us need to take a step back and have a cup of chill the *&^% out.  This is a weather forum.  Always has been, always will be.  Do we disagree?  Yes.
 The key is to do it as civil as possible.  If that proves difficult, you'll do it somewhere else.

 Bruce has become a favorite target of some - me included.  But for him to be labeled anything other than Bruce wont be tolerated.

If anyone has an issue with another poster contact your Admin staff via PM. 
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Nash_LSU on January 22, 2020, 07:17:28 PM
13 days out. What could go wrong?

Welcome to Tennessee - where nothing can possibli go wrong...Possibly go wrong. Huh! That's the first that's ever gone wrong.

Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Eric on January 22, 2020, 07:19:23 PM
Ok. I break this argument forum for some potential winter weather in the 2 weeks...

13 days out. What could go wrong? (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200122/5b2675e190291af72fc925eb063fe330.jpg)

But what really has my attention is this thing...9 days out. Been showing up for multiple runs now. Still time to get more organized before running up the coast. Plus, itís SE of us. NW trend? (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200122/502b12f05f0385a37d977cdbdb3f8319.jpg)


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That storm is like a Victoria's Secret supermodel - she's very easy to look at but the chances of you landing that are nil.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Michael on January 22, 2020, 07:34:32 PM
That storm is like a Victoria's Secret supermodel - she's very easy to look at but the chances of you landing that are nil.
Itís the earlier storm (2nd snapshot posted) Iím actually interested in at this point.


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2020, 08:41:16 PM
That storm is like a Victoria's Secret supermodel - she's very easy to look at but the chances of you landing that are nil.
Speak for yourself.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Cody on January 22, 2020, 09:49:37 PM
When was the last time middle TN had a Winter Storm Warning?


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 22, 2020, 10:18:38 PM
Not sure about middle Tennessee but Johnson City did last year in early December and we got 10 or 11 inches of snow.  We usually get one or more a winter up our way but sometimes they donít pan out. Being at 1,800 feet helps and 45 minutes from all the ski slopes in western North Carolina. The ski slopes at 4,000 to 5,500 feet usually get several a winter and sometimes we get nothing so the elevation is a huge factor when you have marginal Cold air like this year. Sugar Mountain has 21 inches year to date and we have around 4


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: mamMATTus on January 22, 2020, 10:53:52 PM
When was the last time middle TN had a Winter Storm Warning?


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For the Nashville area, I believe at the latest would have been January 22, 2016 and the most recent, January 15-16, 2018, but don't quote me on that.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2020, 11:44:11 PM
Not sure about middle Tennessee but Johnson City did last year in early December and we got 10 or 11 inches of snow.  We usually get one or more a winter up our way but sometimes they donít pan out. Being at 1,800 feet helps and 45 minutes from all the ski slopes in western North Carolina. The ski slopes at 4,000 to 5,500 feet usually get several a winter and sometimes we get nothing so the elevation is a huge factor when you have marginal Cold air like this year. Sugar Mountain has 21 inches year to date and we have around 4


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That event really overperformed for East TN.. was definitely jealous.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Coach B on January 23, 2020, 06:14:13 AM
When was the last time middle TN had a Winter Storm Warning?


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I've seen the map on this by weather service office in the last week or so on Twitter. I think they are getting it through the Iowa State website.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: dwagner88 on January 23, 2020, 07:13:32 AM
That event really overperformed for East TN.. was definitely jealous.
Overperformed for me as well. Over 4 inches of 35 degree rain.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Eric on January 23, 2020, 07:55:02 AM
Speak for yourself.  ::rofl::

(https://media.giphy.com/media/3oz8xLd9DJq2l2VFtu/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 23, 2020, 08:10:10 AM
I think the Tri Cities got all snow and Knoxville just mostly rain during the event last year in December. It was calling for 4-6 inches and a couple of places in the Tri Cities got 13 inches so it definitely was on the high end of snowfall. Boone, North Carolina, at 3,500 feet got 24 inches so it was definitely an elevation type event. Cold air was marginal. We were at 31 with heavy snow at 1,800 feet and Knoxville was at 35 and rain at 800 feet


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Michael on January 23, 2020, 07:07:08 PM
Overperformed for me as well. Over 4 inches of 35 degree rain.
I was right at the cutoff. Less than 10 miles up the road had 10Ē. I got 4Ē of Snow while at my parents house about 10 mikes southwest of me...nothing but rain.


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Michael on January 24, 2020, 12:43:45 PM
Meant to post this on the 21st. 35 years ago...Knoxville hit an actual temp of -24F. Coldest temp ever recorded for Knoxville. Wow. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200124/94574fb3a7ee0a8add8902cc74c3830b.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Michael on January 24, 2020, 12:58:57 PM
I may be looking at it wrong, but it appears 12z Euro is hinting at a potential Miller B setup around Feb 1-2? GFS is a little more robust and further NW. This southern ďsystemĒ has been showing up for around the Feb 1 timeframe on GFS off and on for a few days now. Itís shown up on Euro a couple times or so now. Since Euro is showing it too, itís peaking my interest. It may end up a nothing burger, but it gives us something to keep our eye on. Who knows?


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on January 24, 2020, 01:02:56 PM
What is a Miller B setup and how does if affect Tennessee.  I just donít see enough cold air but hopefully that can change


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: BRUCE on January 24, 2020, 01:15:27 PM
What is a Miller B setup and how does if affect Tennessee.  I just donít see enough cold air but hopefully that can change


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miller b is when the storm transfer to a storm usually off se coast. Usually good for the far se part of country . Miller a is much better for us
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Michael on January 24, 2020, 01:24:01 PM
miller b is when the storm transfer to a storm usually off se coast. Usually good for the far se part of country . Miller a is much better for us
Us East Tn folks can score off both Miller A and B. But, yes, A is better. B just depends on when/where the transfer of energy occurs. Sometimes it screws us East Tn folk and blows up in VA.


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Beth on January 24, 2020, 03:43:47 PM
I may be looking at it wrong, but it appears 12z Euro is hinting at a potential Miller B setup around Feb 1-2? GFS is a little more robust and further NW. This southern ďsystemĒ has been showing up for around the Feb 1 timeframe on GFS off and on for a few days now. Itís shown up on Euro a couple times or so now. Since Euro is showing it too, itís peaking my interest. It may end up a nothing burger, but it gives us something to keep our eye on. Who knows? [emoji1696


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We have a February thread now. You might want to post in there if it Feb. related.  Thanks!😊
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Michael on January 24, 2020, 10:24:16 PM
We have a February thread now. You might want to post in there if it Feb. related.  Thanks!
But it could occur on Jan 31


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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: dwagner88 on January 25, 2020, 09:27:12 PM
Meant to post this on the 21st. 35 years ago...Knoxville hit an actual temp of -24F. Coldest temp ever recorded for Knoxville. Wow. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200124/94574fb3a7ee0a8add8902cc74c3830b.jpg)


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This event also tied Chattanoogaís all time record low. My parents were in a rental cabin in Gatlinburg. They lost power, ran out of firewood, and allegedly resorted to burning the furniture to stay warm.

Sadly, this was the last time a subzero temperature was recorded in Chattanooga. It hasnít happened in my lifetime.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Clint on January 26, 2020, 11:09:05 AM
The 12km NAM for midweek with temps in the mid-thirties during this time.

(https://i.imgur.com/bexSTXt.png)
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 26, 2020, 03:55:06 PM
The 12km NAM for midweek with temps in the mid-thirties during this time.

(https://i.imgur.com/bexSTXt.png)
The NAM continues to show frozen precipitation for much of northern Tennessee. The Euro is not far off of this also.
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Uncle Nasty on February 06, 2020, 07:01:41 PM
February 7th, 2020 for a major part of Tennessee, northern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. There will be a 1 day window depending on speed so let's go with February 6-8th time frame. Don't ask how I know just mark it down. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200117/cad12e8199d3b76ff4108acff0b79af2.jpg)

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Well, I blew it. I tried to reel this one in back on January 17th. It looks like some folks will see a little accumulation but it's not what I had in mind. Everything was in place except for the main ingredient, "Cold air". Anyone who gets snow,
 enjoy!

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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2020, 08:28:11 PM
Well, I blew it. I tried to reel this one in back on January 17th. It looks like some folks will see a little accumulation but it's not what I had in mind. Everything was in place except for the main ingredient, "Cold air". Anyone who gets snow,
 enjoy!

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Still got time... did that mountain man come down out of the hills again and give you the prediction?
Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: Uncle Nasty on February 07, 2020, 04:16:36 AM
Still got time... did that mountain man come down out of the hills again and give you the prediction?
Haha, no. There's a local guy in Ooltewah that is a weather nut. He kept hammering about that timeframe where a major winter storm was on all the charts and models he uses. He was emphatic. . He got the winter storm part right, since technically it's winter. We just didn't have the cold air to work with.

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Title: Re: January 2020 Discussion
Post by: dwagner88 on February 08, 2020, 06:31:07 PM
Well, I blew it. I tried to reel this one in back on January 17th. It looks like some folks will see a little accumulation but it's not what I had in mind. Everything was in place except for the main ingredient, "Cold air". Anyone who gets snow,
 enjoy!

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Quick! Give me some lottery numbers!