Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on December 08, 2019, 05:26:02 PM

Title: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: StormNine on December 08, 2019, 05:26:02 PM
This is the first time I have started a thread about a current winter threat.  Wish me and wish us luck.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 08, 2019, 05:59:19 PM
Best of luck on the thread start, it's going to come together.Let the snow times roll!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: mamMATTus on December 08, 2019, 08:29:57 PM
Rob at WxSouth is on board for TN.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: snowdog on December 08, 2019, 09:01:14 PM
Hi-Res NAM Ferrier was pretty scant on accums.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Cody on December 08, 2019, 09:38:45 PM
Let the clown maps begin!


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Clint on December 08, 2019, 09:58:29 PM
The 0Z RGEM continues to ramp up QPF. Below is at hour 48 with the precipitation still covering west and middle Tennessee.

(https://i.imgur.com/RR3Obzz.png)
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Cody on December 08, 2019, 09:59:21 PM
The 0Z RGEM continues to ramp up QPF. Below is at hour 48 with the precipitation still covering west and middle Tennessee.

(https://i.imgur.com/RR3Obzz.png)
Drool. This may overachieve on another level!


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Michael on December 08, 2019, 10:13:57 PM
00z GFS
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191209/75970538fc47a84026f230da87d45b65.jpg)


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Cody on December 08, 2019, 10:15:52 PM
00z GFS
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191209/75970538fc47a84026f230da87d45b65.jpg)


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Goodness.....HOLD!


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Michael on December 08, 2019, 10:18:56 PM
Goodness.....HOLD!


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With sleet and a warm ground, Iíd say 1/3 of that at best.


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Cody on December 08, 2019, 10:19:42 PM
With sleet and a warm ground, Iíd say 1/3 of that at best.


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Iíll take it


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Sbeagles on December 08, 2019, 10:25:09 PM
With sleet and a warm ground, Iíd say 1/3 of that at best.


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25% of that would be more snow than Iíve seen in last two winters combined lol.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Cody on December 08, 2019, 10:25:37 PM
25% of that would be more snow than Iíve seen in last two winters combined lol.
Amen


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Charles L. on December 09, 2019, 02:40:07 AM
The 6z NAM runs...YIKES.

The short range Canadian would almost hit our yearly average in one storm. Sheesh. (It is DEFINITELY overkill)

Post Merge: December 09, 2019, 03:44:51 AM
Current map from OHX...

[attachimg=1]

And from LMK...

[attachimg=2]
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: cliftown04 on December 09, 2019, 06:54:32 AM
This setup sure makes me nervous. Hoping for a good surprise!
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Beth on December 09, 2019, 07:22:51 AM
Bring on the snow!  It is so pretty to see the Christmas lights look beautiful in the snow!  This snow was in Dec 2010 and right around this same time.  I love it with the Christmas lights on!
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: TNHunter on December 09, 2019, 07:55:04 AM
All the local stations showing nada for Dyersburg area.  Weather.com is showing like 20% chance of flurries.  NOAA showing maybe half inch here at most.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: snowdog on December 09, 2019, 08:02:12 AM
The 6z NAM runs...YIKES.

The short range Canadian would almost hit our yearly average in one storm. Sheesh. (It is DEFINITELY overkill)

SREF is interesting as it has 2 model suites making up it's ensembles. The ARW has a mean of 6" which would lean more towards the RGEM and the NMB has a mean of 1" which would be more in line with the NAM (and the EURO is closer to that solution).
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: wfrogge on December 09, 2019, 08:11:36 AM
What is it with interstate 40 and these storms?  Is it just because of luck that the interstate is at the right angle from southwest to northeast that snow potential typically parallels it or is there some sort of MS bluff Native American voodoo going on here 
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Cody on December 09, 2019, 08:16:16 AM
What is it with interstate 40 and these storms?  Is it just because of luck that the interstate is at the right angle from southwest to northeast that snow potential typically parallels it or is there some sort of MS bluff Native American voodoo going on here
Happens almost every year. We will have temps crashing hard and once it hits the interstate it magically stalls


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Charles L. on December 09, 2019, 08:21:24 AM
12z NAM runs are coming in much better than the 6z runs.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: snowdog on December 09, 2019, 08:27:41 AM
12z NAM runs are coming in much better than the 6z runs.

Looking at Kuchera on the 3k, it seems to fall in line with OHX's thinking for middle TN.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Charles L. on December 09, 2019, 08:29:34 AM
Looking at Kuchera on the 3k, it seems to fall in line with OHX's thinking for middle TN.

Yep. Generally 1-2Ē. Would gladly take that
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2019, 08:38:38 AM
Yep. Generally 1-2Ē. Would gladly take that

that would be more than what I saw ALL of last years winter lol
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: snowdog on December 09, 2019, 08:49:26 AM
Yep. Generally 1-2Ē. Would gladly take that

Big winner on that run (Nam 3k) was just west of Knoxville, coming in at 4.5".
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Cody on December 09, 2019, 08:50:48 AM
Big winner on that run (Nam 3k) was just west of Knoxville, coming in at 4.5".
Would be their 3rd measurable snowfall this year already.


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Michael on December 09, 2019, 09:44:22 AM
My East Tn brethren...Central & Northern Valley looking good on 12z NAM 3k.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191209/2342d23c069415779b04b8dd25db5ff4.jpg)


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2019, 09:52:37 AM
wow... 12zgfs  ::snowman::

Post Merge: December 09, 2019, 09:54:04 AM
it builds the slp bit further west... moves out slower also nice hit along I 40 corridor
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2019, 10:30:58 AM
wow... 12zgfs  ::snowman::

Post Merge: December 09, 2019, 09:54:04 AM
it builds the slp bit further west... moves out slower also nice hit along I 40 corridor

for some reason I keep thinkin s/w middle Tennessee will get a decent little accumulation I think the slightly heavier moisture will be there
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2019, 10:34:53 AM
12z Rgem
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191209/272297096ad8abca35153a9381061944.jpg)

12z GFS

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191209/94169052453b4e6c7a9e53264ca56440.jpg)

Itís really getting late in the game on these models. The Euro has not been near as friendly.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2019, 10:44:38 AM
Wish the best for all wanting snow. Right now looks like a sharp cutoff gradient to the northwest of the main precip shield. Looking to be a close call, hopefully everybody can get some snow. If we barely miss I may not have to go far, if we get a little northwest trend maybe southern and west ky can get involved. My friend from Crofton which is in northern Christian county is worried he is going to miss, I told him nothing is set in stone yet. I do think there will be some winners and losers with this system, I just hope it's not many losers. It's going to be a interesting 24 hours watching it unfold. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: justinmundie on December 09, 2019, 10:45:22 AM
So - Bíham got a great storm like this right before I moved in dec 17. Now that Iím down here, Iím fairly confident this is gonna be a hit for yíall, just because of my absence
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Eric on December 09, 2019, 10:48:49 AM
12z Rgem
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191209/272297096ad8abca35153a9381061944.jpg)

12z GFS

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191209/94169052453b4e6c7a9e53264ca56440.jpg)

Itís really getting late in the game on these models. The Euro has not been near as friendly.

0z Euro has a solid 2-3" swath from TUP ---> Murfreesboro ---> Jamestown.  That seems a bit over-aggressive. 
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2019, 10:57:30 AM
0z Euro has a solid 2-3" swath from TUP ---> Murfreesboro ---> Jamestown.  That seems a bit over-aggressive.

there are quite a bit showing 2-3 plus swath though...whats up with that? Seems quite a bit for post frontal moisture but seems to me it keeps going up the closer we get to the event?
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2019, 11:01:48 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191209/410b5ac0c972caa77c9cb4b1e0b7ac48.jpg)

9z SREF average- keep in mind this is 10:1 ratios which might actually generous
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2019, 11:06:27 AM
there are quite a bit showing 2-3 plus swath though...whats up with that? Seems quite a bit for post frontal moisture but seems to me it keeps going up the closer we get to the event?
models r clearly picking up on another impulse that rides up the frontal boundary., which will help to throw in more precip in the  colder air
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2019, 11:10:07 AM
well it's obvious ohx doesn't know what to do quite yet, 20 hours away and nothing advisory wise yet

if a little impules rides the front as the cold air arrives we could easily see 2-3 inches in a s/w to northeast swath
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Crockett on December 09, 2019, 11:23:52 AM
well it's obvious ohx doesn't know what to do quite yet, 20 hours away and nothing advisory wise yet

if a little impules rides the front as the cold air arrives we could easily see 2-3 inches in a s/w to northeast swath

That's not unusual. There's plenty of time for them to evaluate the 12z model suite and issue an advisory with this afternoon's forecast package.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Eric on December 09, 2019, 11:25:43 AM
well it's obvious ohx doesn't know what to do quite yet, 20 hours away and nothing advisory wise yet

if a little impules rides the front as the cold air arrives we could easily see 2-3 inches in a s/w to northeast swath

A WWA probably won't be issued until later tonight or early tomorrow.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Charles L. on December 09, 2019, 11:27:35 AM
well it's obvious ohx doesn't know what to do quite yet, 20 hours away and nothing advisory wise yet

if a little impules rides the front as the cold air arrives we could easily see 2-3 inches in a s/w to northeast swath

Most Winter Wx Advisories get issued ~ 12 hours before the event begins. So Iíd say we will see come out this evening.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2019, 11:30:06 AM
Most Winter Wx Advisories get issued ~ 12 hours before the event begins. So Iíd say we will see come out this evening.

I thought I remembered them being 24 hours? but then again its been so long since a real winter threat happened I forget :)
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Eric on December 09, 2019, 11:36:09 AM
I thought I remembered them being 24 hours? but then again its been so long since a real winter threat happened I forget :)

That's a winter storm watch, I believe.

No, winter storm watch is 48 hours and a winter storm warning is 24 hours.  I think.   ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2019, 11:43:37 AM
That's a winter storm watch, I believe.

No, winter storm watch is 48 hours and a winter storm warning is 24 hours.  I think.   ::bagoverhead::
10  4... I have seen some wwa get upgraded to a winter storm warning after the event got underway... not saying this will be the case
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2019, 11:47:15 AM
10  4... I have seen some wwa get upgraded to a winter storm warning after the event got underway... not saying this will be the case

have seen that happen plenty of times back in the day when we would "bust" in the right direction :) lol

I still remember the "heavy snow warnings" from back in the day

Post Merge: December 09, 2019, 11:54:29 AM
it really seems in mid tn south of 1-40 and east of tn river that models are showing several hours of snowfall.....

The overall style of this setup reminds me a bit of march 2015?
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2019, 11:55:53 AM
have seen that happen plenty of times back in the day when we would "bust" in the right direction :) lol

I still remember the "heavy snow warnings" from back in the day

Post Merge: December 09, 2019, 11:54:29 AM
it really seems in mid tn south of 1-40 and east of tn river that models are showing several hours of snowfall.....

The overall style of this setup reminds me a bit of march 2015?
aww   miss the good ole heavy snow warnings... back when we had some true winters.  lol
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: schneitzeit on December 09, 2019, 12:04:08 PM
10  4... I have seen some wwa get upgraded to a winter storm warning after the event got underway... not saying this will be the case

Eighty-six on WSWs in TN, over.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2019, 01:37:15 PM
http://wxcaster.com/legends/TotalSnowFall_Legend-new.png

wouldn't this be nice :)Ö.I just find it odd the closer we get the higher the models are going?
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: snowdog on December 09, 2019, 01:50:29 PM
15z SREF, 3k NAM and Euro all seem to be converging on OHX's graphics. I'd say they have a pretty good handle on this.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2019, 01:51:30 PM
15z SREF, 3k NAM and Euro all seem to be converging on OHX's graphics. I'd say they have a pretty good handle on this.

I say widespread 1-2 with maybe a 3 inch total somewhere Ö definitely wwa material
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: snowdog on December 09, 2019, 01:56:15 PM
I say widespread 1-2 with maybe a 3 inch total somewhere Ö definitely wwa material

I'd say cut that in half. Heavy dusting to an inch and I don't know how widespread it would be. Maybe some pockets of 1-2" up on the plateau.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2019, 02:05:00 PM
There is going to be some very big large wet snow flakes with this setup... moisture content pretty high... to bad ground temps not quite there yet ... but the heavier bands will cause accumulation s on the grassy surfaces ...
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Heath22 on December 09, 2019, 02:28:02 PM
Hey guys. I have to drive to Memphis from Murfreesboro tomorrow and then back. Should I be worried about this threat?
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2019, 02:29:19 PM
Hey guys. I have to drive to Memphis from Murfreesboro tomorrow and then back. Should I be worried about this threat?
ground temps should save most problems on pavement
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: schneitzeit on December 09, 2019, 02:35:09 PM
Hey guys. I have to drive to Memphis from Murfreesboro tomorrow and then back. Should I be worried about this threat?

I think the major roadways will be just fine. Be cautious on bridges, especially later in the day tomorrow. But much of this winter event will take place above freezing, so the only possible way accumulation can occur on the asphalt is during a very heavy band of snow. The warm temperatures today play to your advantage.

Keep your eyes open for ice in the evening hours. 40 and 840 will be fine, but once you get off those roadways, you could run into trouble if it's dark out.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2019, 02:37:24 PM
I think the major roadways will be just fine. Be cautious on bridges, especially later in the day tomorrow. But much of this winter event will take place above freezing, so the only possible way accumulation can occur on the asphalt is during a very heavy band of snow. The warm temperatures today play to your advantage.

Keep your eyes open for ice in the evening hours. 40 and 840 will be fine, but once you get off those roadways, you could run into trouble if it's dark out.
i be more worried bout bridges over passes Wednesday morning early .. temps getting down mid lo 20s anything wet will freeze
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Eric on December 09, 2019, 02:38:13 PM
Hey guys. I have to drive to Memphis from Murfreesboro tomorrow and then back. Should I be worried about this threat?

I think the major roadways will be just fine. Be cautious on bridges, especially later in the day tomorrow. But much of this winter event will take place above freezing, so the only possible way accumulation can occur on the asphalt is during a very heavy band of snow. The warm temperatures today play to your advantage.

Keep your eyes open for ice in the evening hours. 40 and 840 will be fine, but once you get off those roadways, you could run into trouble if it's dark out.

Bingo.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2019, 03:37:35 PM
MEG. Down playing this event tomorrow big time ... no hint at all of issuing wwa... any where in midsouth ... saying mainly a rain snow mix...
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2019, 03:43:45 PM
MEG. Down playing this event tomorrow big time ... no hint at all of issuing wwa... any where in midsouth ... saying mainly a rain snow mix...

this is one time I do not agree...i could be wrong, there is just some reason i think it pans out
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Coach B on December 09, 2019, 03:44:06 PM
HUN is interested:
Quote
Taking a look at cross sections and determining deformation zones,
there is a period of time where enhanced lift at 700mb occurs
overhead, and therefore may enhance snowfall rates tomorrow evening.
Though this is a small ~3 hour window, this may lead to higher
snowfall rates for a few select locations across the area
. Overall,
snowfall totals look to be around a dusting to half an inch in NW AL
and Srn Middle TN, dwindling as you head to the South/East. A few
spots in Nrn areas may receive up to 1", which is Winter Weather
Advisory Criteria for our office. For now, will not officially be
issuing that just yet, and will allow one more run of the models to
come in for the midnight shift to officially decide to pull the
trigger. Confidence is not high enough at this point today to issue
that product this far out.

Assuming we get a little deformation banding setting up,
realistically, we could see 1-1.5" in some spots, if not a little
higher.
Some short-term models have gone with MUCH higher amounts,
but am not biting on that given the current atmospheric profiles in
place.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Eric on December 09, 2019, 03:45:34 PM
MEG. Down playing this event tomorrow big time ... no hint at all of issuing wwa... any where in midsouth ... saying mainly a rain snow mix...

Which kinda lines up with the HRRR and NAM3.  The main show - such as it is - doesn't get rolling until the main package of precip moves E of MEG.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Coach B on December 09, 2019, 03:49:48 PM
I do not trust the RGEM at all but it continues to show some bursts of heavier snow tomorrow afternoon and evening southeast of a Memphis to Nashville line.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Charles L. on December 09, 2019, 03:56:55 PM
Which kinda lines up with the HRRR and NAM3.  The main show - such as it is - doesn't get rolling until the main package of precip moves E of MEG.

The HRRR is very ugly for even me. I am hoping and wishcasting that it fails badly tomorrow. Haha
Title: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2019, 03:58:47 PM
Which kinda lines up with the HRRR and NAM3.  The main show - such as it is - doesn't get rolling until the main package of precip moves E of MEG.
The 18z NAM 3k looks best for the MS Delta- it has one inch amounts for the 40 corridor southward- and thatís about it. There some isolated 3-4 inch amounts just southwest of Memphis- but thatís by far and away the largest accumulation anywhere around.
Title: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2019, 04:13:42 PM
I keep waiting on the GFS to just go poof...but it doesnít yet. RGEM is more robust than the NAM 3k with the northern extent but it did refine it more than it had been. It also has places just south of Memphis with Kuchera totals of 3-4 inches.

The only completely ďno flakesĒ scenario is you guessed it- NW Tennessee.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Eric on December 09, 2019, 04:34:01 PM
I keep waiting on the GFS to just go poof...but it doesnít yet. RGEM is more robust than the NAM 3k with the northern extent but it did refine it more than it had been. It also has places just south of Memphis with Kuchera totals of 3-4 inches.

The only completely ďno flakesĒ scenario is you guessed it- NW Tennessee.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/9jEaPxN9eZWmI/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2019, 04:35:52 PM
Cold front seems to moving in at pretty good clip according to nws at paducah, I see were Rolla,Missouri has winds out of the northwest and is down to 35. Many places in Missouri missed their high today by almost 20 degrees. Maybe it's no impact to us, but it's almost nowcasting and I like to check things like that out. Looking at radar and the moisture stream from new mexico to texas, should make for a interesting Tuesday to see where things set up. Just observations, it looks like the bulk of precip over texas is north of dallas and heading more into southeast Oklahoma and central texas at the moment. But it does trail all the way back into new mexico. ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2019, 04:41:29 PM
Cold front seems to moving in at pretty good clip according to nws at paducah, I see were Rolla,Missouri has winds out of the northwest and is down to 35. Many places in Missouri missed their high today by almost 20 degrees. Maybe it's no impact to us, but it's almost nowcasting and I like to check things like that out. Looking at radar and the moisture stream from new mexico to texas, should make for a interesting Tuesday to see where things set up. Just observations, it looks like the bulk of precip over texas is north of dallas and heading more into southeast Oklahoma and central texas at the moment. But it does trail all the way back into new mexico. ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Here's to hoping we get a nice training effect for 5-6 hours while the cold air is here...instead of the moisture rushing out :)
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2019, 04:44:19 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/9jEaPxN9eZWmI/giphy.gif)
yeah. Really! Lol
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: schneitzeit on December 09, 2019, 05:12:42 PM
I really can't get excited for this at all. This is a classic bust situation.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Charles L. on December 09, 2019, 05:19:48 PM
I really can't get excited for this at all. This is a classic bust situation.

I never truly get excited until I see the snow start falling.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: justinmundie on December 09, 2019, 05:27:41 PM
So - wanted to chime in again.

This sucker is going to be very dependent on precip rates Iím afraid. 850s and surface are marginal and it seems like heavier returns are pulling cold air to the surface. Thatís why these excessive totals are showing up. And also why the metros are showing considerably less accumulation. Elevation is gonna matter a ton in the Nashville metro.

I think everyone on the board outside of north west Tennessee will see snow. But if you get unlucky enough to not get some really heavy rates, you may not see much.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Beth on December 09, 2019, 05:32:06 PM
I really can't get excited for this at all. This is a classic bust situation.
It is true that it could be a bust. But I have seen some pretty good snows here in middle TN that came from the track this storm is coming in at. But even if it doesnít stick it will be fun to see snow at this time of year. Snow around Christmas is my favorite.  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: a1star93 on December 09, 2019, 05:45:43 PM
it'll be fun just to watch it snow during the day.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2019, 05:54:57 PM
 I like a early season system like this, lots of uncertainty. I like that. It could be a bust or could be a pleasant surprise for some. But there is also a chance it could overperform a little bit, for sure it could go either way. I am hopeful but know full well this could go a few different ways. It could miss to my south, the temp and the snow rates aren't enough for much snow to stick. Or we could get under some good banding, and the temps could fall enough for us to get a measurable snowfall. Either way it will be fun tracking and maybe if it misses me I won't have far to go. Maybe we will get a surprise and most if not all of Tennessee cashes in on at least a little snow.  ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 09, 2019, 06:08:30 PM
this is just one of those situations to start radar watching , we have a decent enough of an idea that something " could" occur, now lets just watch wait and see. I say 1-2 more common that what the mets think but I guess that's why they get paid and I don't lol
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: wfrogge on December 09, 2019, 06:09:07 PM
In order to bust there must be a forecast to bust.  My local office isnít forecasting anything more than an inch at best.  Right now we are on target
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2019, 06:25:33 PM
In order to bust there must be a forecast to bust.  My local office isnít forecasting anything more than an inch at best.  Right now we are on target
Your right it's not that big a bust, what would be bust is if we end up with 1-3 over a wide area that causes some travel problems, especially in west and middle tn where they really aren't expecting more than a dusting to inch. Really most NWS offices saying a dusting to a inch with possible higher amounts on plateau is a good call, of course it could end up being less or more than that and that is the fun of watching it unfold.  ::yum:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: wfrogge on December 09, 2019, 06:47:21 PM
With the amount of moisture this system had out west there is a chance it could in fact over perform. Can't wait to see what happens
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2019, 07:35:57 PM
It's 57 in Cape Girardeau, 43 in Farmington just to the north and 30 in Rolla just to the west of Farmington. The wind has now shifted out of the NW in the Cape. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: EastTNWX on December 09, 2019, 07:37:30 PM
Grain of salt alert but the November event over performed for my neck of the woods, I wouldnít be surprised to see this over perform if everyone keeps a grounded expectation on amounts.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 09, 2019, 07:43:13 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/9jEaPxN9eZWmI/giphy.gif)
We shall see. You know how we roll.  8)
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Flash on December 09, 2019, 07:53:26 PM
It is true that it could be a bust. But I have seen some pretty good snows here in middle TN that came from the track this storm is coming in at. But even if it doesnít stick it will be fun to see snow at this time of year. Snow around Christmas is my favorite.  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Completely agree, Beth. Any snow that takes place before Christmas and after March 1 is really bonus, cherry on the parfait type stuff as far as I'm concerned. 'Tis the season for the weather to feel like the season we're in.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: dwagner88 on December 09, 2019, 08:02:52 PM
So - wanted to chime in again.

This sucker is going to be very dependent on precip rates Iím afraid. 850s and surface are marginal and it seems like heavier returns are pulling cold air to the surface. Thatís why these excessive totals are showing up. And also why the metros are showing considerably less accumulation. Elevation is gonna matter a ton in the Nashville metro.

I think everyone on the board outside of north west Tennessee will see snow. But if you get unlucky enough to not get some really heavy rates, you may not see much.
Well . . . not everyone. Iím 0/4 on anafronts in the last 4 years.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: schneitzeit on December 09, 2019, 08:04:40 PM
HRRR says no to anyone west of the Plateau.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Flash on December 09, 2019, 08:05:22 PM
Latest HRRR is not impressed. Taken verbatim, looks more like a sleety base situation with some powdered sugar on top. I think NWS-Nash adjusting amounts 0-1" (with point click forecasts stating 'less than half inch' for most metro locales) was a wise call. From a pure snow perspective, we may only have a few hours before it scoots on out. Sure hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Thundersnow on December 09, 2019, 08:05:38 PM
We shall see. You know how we roll.  8)

Yes- we do.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2019, 08:17:32 PM
3k NAM never gets any precip much further north than 40 from Memphis to Nashville. It does linger snow and sleet along this corridor with temps down to the low. 30ís. If you can get some decent rates, thatís the area that can probably get some kind of accumulation. There looks to be appear to be a sharp cutoff. Usually someone just to the south gets a decent precip rate. We shall see.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Beth on December 09, 2019, 09:11:29 PM
They just delayed Dickson Co. Schools for 2 hours.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2019, 09:47:06 PM
Maybe the GFS scores a coup? It just consistently brings hefty accumulating snow across the state. Itís late in the game for a global, but man if the new GFS is really that bad even at the last minute- itís hard to ever believe it moving forward.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Woodvegas on December 09, 2019, 09:50:08 PM
According to the Pivotal Weather snow maps the 12/10 0Z GFS looks pretty good for a major portion of TN. Of course snow amount does not necessarily mean snow accumulation.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Beth on December 09, 2019, 09:54:57 PM
I wonder if NWS will change their forecast again with new gfs run?   They had lowered it to 30% chance of sleet & snow tonight and just cloudy tomorrow. I bet their scratching their heads now.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: wfrogge on December 09, 2019, 09:55:04 PM
According to the Pivotal Weather snow maps the 12/10 0Z GFS looks pretty good for a major portion of TN. Of course snow amount does not necessarily mean snow accumulation.

I would never trust the GFS this close to the event..... In fact I would never trust the GFS  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Cody on December 09, 2019, 09:56:08 PM
Why in the world are schools opening 2 hours late?


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Beth on December 09, 2019, 09:58:46 PM
Why in the world are schools opening 2 hours late?


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Well thatís Dickson County for you. Lol
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: schneitzeit on December 09, 2019, 10:00:20 PM
HRRR is the odd one out, showing warmer temperatures than the rest of the models. This is why no accumulation is showing up in that model.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2019, 10:07:11 PM
Looks like changeover occurring on the outer western edge of precip shield back in Arkansas. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: mamMATTus on December 09, 2019, 10:13:41 PM
I wonder if NWS will change their forecast again with new gfs run?   They had lowered it to 30% chance of sleet & snow tonight and just cloudy tomorrow. I bet their scratching their heads now.

My guess is that they are sticking mainly with climo.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Woodvegas on December 09, 2019, 10:13:52 PM
I would never trust the GFS this close to the event..... In fact I would never trust the GFS  ::evillaugh::

Do you have any data showing that GFS verification scores are worse 12 hours from an event than the short range models or is this just dogma?
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Thundersnow on December 09, 2019, 10:24:16 PM
Why in the world are schools opening 2 hours late?


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I wondered the same. But, I seem to remember an explanation about a similar situation before. If they make the decision to delay now, that buys time to watch trends unfold in the morning. If they open at normal time, they might close by late morning if thereís a changeover anyway.

If this thing is a bust, then just open late and carry on. If snow develops by mid/late-morning, then close the remainder of the day and spare the trouble of sending buses out and then back again for a really short day.

OHX is suggesting a changeover in Nashville possibly as early as 11:00AM... presumably it would come earlier for Dickson.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2019, 10:26:32 PM
Do you have any data showing that GFS verification scores are worse 12 hours from an event than the short range models or is this just dogma?

Even if a global has been off base, it should be catching on to the plan right before an event. Itís probably about to take that solution right off the cliff or least likely take a  huge victory lap.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: tntwilight on December 09, 2019, 10:27:11 PM
Why in the world are schools opening 2 hours late?


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The answer, to me anyway, is to bye time without having to commit to using a snow day.  With this kind of uncertainty, using the two hour delay approach, puts everyone (especially parents/guardians) on notice that the current situation potentially warrants further consideration.

At least thatís my opinion as to why youíd exercise this option at this point.  I have to say, in this particular situation, I donít necessarily disagree with using this approach. If nothing happens, or if it appears that nothing will happen, then you save the snow day ó if it looks like something may happen, then you use the full day.

Thereís no doubt, this makes it difficult for the parties involved; but, that in itself doesnít mean itís the wrong call.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: tntwilight on December 09, 2019, 10:31:00 PM
I wondered the same. But, I seem to remember an explanation about a similar situation before. If they make the decision to delay now, that buys time to watch trends unfold in the morning. If they open at normal time, they might close by late morning if thereís a changeover anyway.

If this thing is a bust, then just open late and carry on. If snow develops by mid/late-morning, then close the remainder of the day and spare the trouble of sending buses out and then back again for a really short day.

OHX is suggesting a changeover in Nashville possibly as early as 11:00AM... presumably it would come earlier for Dickson.

My apologies Thundersnow, I was typing my reply when you posted your answer.
Title: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Thundersnow on December 09, 2019, 10:31:39 PM
I do think itís a fair compromise and better option than pre-emptively closing. So many snow days have been wasted that way, when the forecast didnít work out.


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: wfrogge on December 09, 2019, 10:34:16 PM
Do you have any data showing that GFS verification scores are worse 12 hours from an event than the short range models or is this just dogma?

It's a medium range outlook that is not intended to be used this close to an event. Typically it will overdo everything and show the "worst possible scenario" possibly because of the sampling it takes into consideration. To me it makes sense because by the time you see the GFS run, hours have passed since the sampling of data and in these setups a few miles of movement of the front and or cold air push could mean the difference between all rain for everybody and snow for the state.

We are in the range of the Hi Res models now and should question what the GFS shows.  Many will argue that inside of 12 hours even the Hi Res models shouldn't be followed and its time to look at real readings, soundings, and radar returns (nowcasting).
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Beth on December 09, 2019, 11:14:08 PM
I wondered the same. But, I seem to remember an explanation about a similar situation before. If they make the decision to delay now, that buys time to watch trends unfold in the morning. If they open at normal time, they might close by late morning if thereís a changeover anyway.

If this thing is a bust, then just open late and carry on. If snow develops by mid/late-morning, then close the remainder of the day and spare the trouble of sending buses out and then back again for a really short day.

OHX is suggesting a changeover in Nashville possibly as early as 11:00AM... presumably it would come earlier for Dickson.
Believe me!  I would much rather them be safe than sorry.  I think it was a good call. A lot of parents are complaining about it but they really should something in place when this happens. They stated that their daycare would be open.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Charles L. on December 10, 2019, 12:01:53 AM
A lot of parents are complaining about it but they really should something in place when this happens. They stated that their daycare would be open.

What!? Parents complaining about school being delayed!? 😂😂

Itís one of those lose/lose situations. Unless it is coming a blizzard you will never have consensus on parents thinking if school should be open or closed.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2019, 12:08:38 AM
For once, a clown map actually has me in the sweet spot. Iíll take this and cash out, thanks
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191210/1658016c3e5a2acc7e2156c3d4c7eb7f.jpg)


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Charles L. on December 10, 2019, 02:30:46 AM
The HRRR says nada for everyone.

Honestly, at this point, I think if anyone (even the Plateau counties) see 1Ē that would be the max.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: OutsiderLuknIn on December 10, 2019, 05:45:31 AM
Some sleet mixing in and pinging on the windows in White House/Cottontown


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: OutsiderLuknIn on December 10, 2019, 05:49:44 AM
Some sleet mixing in and pinging on the windows in White House/Cottontown


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: NismoWx on December 10, 2019, 05:53:05 AM
Dashboard says 37, big wet flakes and sleet I-24 @ Joelton exit. Temp was 42 downtown BNA.

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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: marjl21 on December 10, 2019, 06:05:35 AM
Woke up to sleeting pinging the window here In Memphis.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: cliftown04 on December 10, 2019, 06:14:04 AM
Itís nowcast time Iím curious as to thoughts on moisture available today. The radar looks pretty juicy out to the west. Thoughts?
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: OutsiderLuknIn on December 10, 2019, 06:18:49 AM
Mostly sleet in White House now. Coming down at a pretty good clip.


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Brad on December 10, 2019, 06:50:24 AM
Rain mixed with sleet at my house in Crieve Hall - South Nashville.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: wfrogge on December 10, 2019, 07:07:15 AM
With the current temps, no short range models showing any accumulation, and not a single weather advisory issued this system is done.  Enjoy the pretty stuff falling for a little bit. At least we got that
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Clay on December 10, 2019, 07:22:38 AM
Switching from sleet over to sleet/snow mix IMBY.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Coach B on December 10, 2019, 07:44:48 AM
Latest HRRR is a little better with at least minor accums from I 40 south thru most of west and middle TN. Seems to line up with the radar which is looking pretty juicy all the way back to Texas along I 40. No significant southward shift of that precip yet.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 10, 2019, 07:56:25 AM
Just don't look like it will make it up my way. Everytime it looks like it is it dries up to my west and south. There have been a handful of snow granular or pellets fall, otherwise dry all the way around. Hopefully someone will get under some good returns to our south. ::snowman::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2019, 08:03:40 AM
Only snow flake I have seen , on way in to work snow was mixing in along hwy 70 interstate meet ... time say NEXT
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2019, 08:06:59 AM
look at the northward push of moisture in arky and Louisiana? not much due east movement...that could be here around lunch?
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2019, 08:10:24 AM
Looking at radar returns, it seems to me that Memphis (and perhaps BNA) may actually be in a good spot.  Enhanced moisture is feeding in downstream while temps are diving. Meanwhile, the progression of this feature towards the south and east is quite slow.

If not for the modeling showing otherwise, I'd expect higher rates here to cool the boundary layer to below freezing in this situation...

... but we all know that's not predicted to happen and we know that these cities usually find a way out of the snow trap.

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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Coach B on December 10, 2019, 08:12:58 AM
The regional radar looks good from Little Rock to Memphis, but when you pull up the individual radars it appears much of the precip is not reaching the ground.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2019, 08:14:20 AM
Looking at radar returns, it seems to me that Memphis (and perhaps BNA) may actually be in a good spot.  Enhanced moisture is feeding in downstream while temps are diving. Meanwhile, the progression of this feature towards the south and east is quite slow.

If not for the modeling showing otherwise, I'd expect higher rates here to cool the boundary layer to below freezing in this situation...

... but we all know that's not predicted to happen and we know that these cities usually find a way out of the snow trap.

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that's my thinking....there is a big northward movement to the moisture Ö. so who knows :)
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2019, 08:14:54 AM
look at the northward push of moisture in arky and Louisiana? not much due east movement...that could be here around lunch?
Just wrote a reply on that while you were typing.  This has definitely caught my eye but I'm not sure if we've act deviated from what models were showing, so I'm tempering my enthusiasm for the moment.

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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Coach B on December 10, 2019, 08:15:19 AM
look at the northward push of moisture in arky and Louisiana? not much due east movement...that could be here around lunch?

Lots of gulf moisture feeding in back in east Texas and Louisiana. Going to be fun day of temp and radar watching.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Charles L. on December 10, 2019, 08:16:00 AM
Gotta remember we have dry air filtering in throughout the day which will erode some of this moisture streaming in from the west and SW
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2019, 08:18:32 AM
The regional radar looks good from Little Rock to Memphis, but when you pull up the individual radars it appears much of the precip is not reaching the ground.
That would mean the column is still getting fed cold, dry air but I'd think that moisture content inbound will saturate the column soon regardless.  Also gonna leave room for some dynamic cooling in the boundary layer.



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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: wfrogge on December 10, 2019, 08:23:43 AM
A lot of that moisture you guys are seeing on radar is not hitting the ground as evaporation starts to take its toll.  With that said at least we have something on radar falling from high up versus typical situations where we get nothing :)

Hope that somebody on the board lucks out with this one.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: acollinkee on December 10, 2019, 08:36:29 AM
Flurries in Hendersonville
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2019, 08:38:13 AM
what I am realizing with each passing year is how difficult it is for mid tn to get snow.....either not enough cold air or not enough moisture.... seems we are about the only region that struggles with this as much....heck northern and central Alabama has seen more snow than me this decade lol
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2019, 08:38:27 AM
A lot of that moisture you guys are seeing on radar is not hitting the ground as evaporation starts to take its toll.  With that said at least we have something on radar falling from high up versus typical situations where we get nothing :)

Hope that somebody on the board lucks out with this one.
Agree but that's not actually a bad thing when you combine it with all that Gulf moisture transport.... That would allow for some cooling.  Now, will these two things properly balance?

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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Thundersnow on December 10, 2019, 08:44:25 AM
The regional radar looks good from Little Rock to Memphis, but when you pull up the individual radars it appears much of the precip is not reaching the ground.

I noticed the same... the infamous radar "hole" where adjacent radars are picking up precip in the upper levels.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: snowdog on December 10, 2019, 08:46:00 AM
Anyone in Jackson seeing snow?
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2019, 08:49:46 AM
Anyone in Jackson seeing snow?
light snow started bout 20 minutes ago here work... got me in the Christmas spirit ...
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Thundersnow on December 10, 2019, 08:55:51 AM
Saw some graupel falling on the way into work toward Brentwood this morning.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: snowdog on December 10, 2019, 08:59:58 AM
Saw some graupel falling on the way into work toward Brentwood this morning.

Two winter precip events, albeit very light, before Christmas. Off to a good start.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Coach B on December 10, 2019, 09:00:37 AM
Switched to sleet in Lewisburg.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: joemomma on December 10, 2019, 09:01:11 AM
Mixed precip in northern Putnam County at this point.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Sbeagles on December 10, 2019, 09:03:33 AM
We've had off and on sleet in Linden since about 5 this morning. Just not heavy enough to see any type of accumulation.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2019, 09:12:32 AM
Well this is lame
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Flash on December 10, 2019, 09:17:59 AM
Light snow on and off at the bluff from what I'm hearing. Over by the airport now. My eyes could be deceiving me, but the precip shield looks to be backbuilding a little bit.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2019, 09:34:01 AM
Can confirm light snow in my neck of the woods.

Post Merge: December 10, 2019, 09:37:05 AM
I daresay the HRRR has been increasing the snow zone the past few runs.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2019, 09:38:53 AM
Decently snowing at the moment here
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: cbrentv318 on December 10, 2019, 09:46:30 AM
Snow with sleet here in Murfreesboro.


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Shocker0 on December 10, 2019, 09:52:04 AM
Switched over to snow in the last 5-10 minutes in Cookeville according to this weather camera:

https://putnamcountytn.gov/cookeville-live-square

Still 33 and raining in Crossville :O
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2019, 09:53:04 AM
Snow with sleet here in Murfreesboro.

The amount of snow falling is MUCH lighter than what the radar returns are showing in lewis county

Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: WXHD on December 10, 2019, 09:55:53 AM
Flurries in Creive Hall, Nashville.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Woodvegas on December 10, 2019, 09:56:58 AM
It's a medium range outlook that is not intended to be used this close to an event. Typically it will overdo everything and show the "worst possible scenario" possibly because of the sampling it takes into consideration. To me it makes sense because by the time you see the GFS run, hours have passed since the sampling of data and in these setups a few miles of movement of the front and or cold air push could mean the difference between all rain for everybody and snow for the state.

We are in the range of the Hi Res models now and should question what the GFS shows.  Many will argue that inside of 12 hours even the Hi Res models shouldn't be followed and its time to look at real readings, soundings, and radar returns (nowcasting).

Yes that is the conventional thinking and you see similar comments posted not infrequently on weather message boards but it doesn't really answer the question I posed... are the verification scores for the GFS and ECMWF worse than short range models such as  the HRRR 12 hours or even 6 hours prior to an event? Are progged QPF totals significantly different between the GFS or ECMWF and the short range models? Snow depth is of course multi-factorial and all models struggle with it. "Nowcasting" certainly is important but seems somewhat limited to me in predicting QPF totals (not type) 6 hours before an event.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Shocker0 on December 10, 2019, 09:57:34 AM
Moderate sleet now falling in Crossville
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2019, 10:04:22 AM
If I just looked at the composite radar, I would be thrilled. When you look at the precip depiction, you really see whatís hitting the ground. Obviously the hi res models correctly picked up on some drying in the upper atmosphere that wouldnít allow for dendrite formation. If it had made it to the ground, the GFS scenario might have been in play.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Eric on December 10, 2019, 10:06:52 AM
Yes that is the conventional thinking and you see similar comments posted not infrequently on weather message boards but it doesn't really answer the question I posed... are the verification scores for the GFS and ECMWF worse than short range models such as  the HRRR 12 hours or even 6 hours prior to an event? Are progged QPF totals significantly different between the GFS or ECMWF and the short range models? Snow depth is of course multi-factorial and all models struggle with it. "Nowcasting" certainly is important but seems somewhat limited to me in predicting QPF totals (not type) 6 hours before an event.

I'm not sure I've seen verification scores between globals and mesoscale suites.  In my eyes, that's a green apple-to-red apple comparison.  The GFS - and Euro alike - has very poor resolution as you get closer to an event.  Can they still be used for guidance?  Absolutely.  It's a data source, and as such, should be utilized but the confidence it's given should be attenuated in lieu of the other mesoscale sources - HRRR, NAM3, etc,, especially within 6-12 hours of an event.  Everything wfrogge said makes absolutely perfect sense, at least in my eyes.  But to answer your specific question re: verification between medium-range and mesoscale suites, I've got to believe that the GFS/Euro suites would fare much worse than the HRRR/NAM3 just due to resolution alone.  It's an interesting discussion, either way. 
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2019, 10:11:02 AM
We so often get screwed by dry air. This is what boxed my location out of November's minor event.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: wfrogge on December 10, 2019, 10:14:48 AM
Yes that is the conventional thinking and you see similar comments posted not infrequently on weather message boards but it doesn't really answer the question I posed... are the verification scores for the GFS and ECMWF worse than short range models such as  the HRRR 12 hours or even 6 hours prior to an event? Are progged QPF totals significantly different between the GFS or ECMWF and the short range models? Snow depth is of course multi-factorial and all models struggle with it. "Nowcasting" certainly is important but seems somewhat limited to me in predicting QPF totals (not type) 6 hours before an event.

Well the GFS didnt pan out this time (so far) and you can track the next few events to see if there is a pattern.  A lot of us have done just that and it shows the evidence does support the presented fact that the GFS isnt that great at short range (inside of 18 hours). On top of that the GFS has well documented issues far as reliability goes. An upgrade to it happened earlier this year in an attempt to address some of them but I don't see much improvement.

Just take a look at the last three runs of the GFS regarding snow totals for today. Right now it has me at 3.2 inches with snow falling and that's not even close to what is going on real time. Pretty much what is happening real time right now is what the Hi Res models were showing yesterday afternoon.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2019, 10:21:29 AM
dry air aloft wins again....

I think I will move in with my family in Jersey for the winter months so I can experience real snow every year lol
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2019, 10:23:25 AM
Yep. It sucks. Every single "event" here turns out to be either a fraction of forecast or a big nothing burger.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Eric on December 10, 2019, 10:31:11 AM
HRRR and NAM3 picked up on the dry air theory yesterday.  Not sure why it's such a surprise this morning.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2019, 10:38:04 AM
HRRR and NAM3 picked up on the dry air theory yesterday.  Not sure why it's such a surprise this morning.
cause. Think a lot people were riding the gfs all the way home... even during short range time ... now many feelings hurt cause that ... hrrr is the best short range model imo
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Beth on December 10, 2019, 10:38:17 AM
I am sure the plateau will eventually get moist enough for it to snow there.  It almost always does.  :-\
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Coach B on December 10, 2019, 10:57:24 AM
Cartops turning white in Lewisburg. Temp down to 32.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Charles L. on December 10, 2019, 11:12:20 AM
Quickly looking like SE middle TN are going to be the winners from this event. Congrats to those who are seeing/saw snow!
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Susan on December 10, 2019, 11:22:12 AM
cause. Think a lot people were riding the gfs all the way home... even during short range time

only the wishcasters
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2019, 11:25:03 AM
only the wishcasters
most certain a great point Susan ... agree
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Susan on December 10, 2019, 11:26:48 AM
Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1046 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Dry air continues to move in rapidly behind the front, but also
cold air near the surface is moving in faster than previously
forecasted as well.
Dewpoints upstream are already in the teens,
and dewpoints in the low 20s are in place in Nashville and
northwest in the mid state. Models that were hinting at low level
dry air over the past few days were even on the conservative side
as subsidence behind the front took over in the mid levels which
translated downward pretty quickly. The dry air below the clouds
is helping to evaporate snow aloft, leaving behind mainly light
snow and still some sleet for areas seeing surface temps below 35
this morning. Closer to the front southeast of Nashville,
rain/sleet/snow is the main mix in the transition from all rain to
all snow, and that may be the area that has the best shot to see
accumulation later this afternoon.
Short term models do have some
bands developing and moving into the southeast/Plateau this
afternoon, and soundings show that it may be saturated enough to
get around a half inch to maybe an inch of snow especially at
higher elevations.


Adjusted temperatures today to account for the faster moving cold
air, as well as dewpoints for the drier air at the surface. PoPs
adjusted as well to account for latest guidance. Overall, storm
total snow grid has not changed much, putting a dusting to a few
tenths for most of the mid state west of I-65, up to a half inch
further east towards the Plateau, and up to an inch/around an inch
for the Plateau and southeast. If the dry air wins out and moves
through faster, those amounts will be on the high side as the
heavier snow will evaporate. But, still enough short term models
are banking on moisture holding on for the east/southeast, so
didn`t want to back off on amounts on there just yet.

Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2019, 11:28:17 AM
only the wishcasters

I really thought we could squeeze out 1-2 out of this one....oh well....no biggie. We all know gulf lows are normally our only real hope so still waiting on one of those to come through for us again :)
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Woodvegas on December 10, 2019, 11:31:05 AM
Well the GFS didnt pan out this time (so far) and you can track the next few events to see if there is a pattern.  A lot of us have done just that and it shows the evidence does support the presented fact that the GFS isnt that great at short range (inside of 18 hours). On top of that the GFS has well documented issues far as reliability goes. An upgrade to it happened earlier this year in an attempt to address some of them but I don't see much improvement.

Just take a look at the last three runs of the GFS regarding snow totals for today. Right now it has me at 3.2 inches with snow falling and that's not even close to what is going on real time. Pretty much what is happening real time right now is what the Hi Res models were showing yesterday afternoon.

I never expected the GFS to verify in regards to snow accumulation in this scenario. I'm not sure if it will verify as to progged QPF (not type), maybe, maybe not. In situations like this vertical resolution should be critical and models with superior vertical resolution and that handle dry air involvement will win out. In storms where the entire air column is below freezing and dry air is not an issue I'm not sure that the medium range models are that bad. Just rambling thoughts here... not trying to be critical in any way.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Thundersnow on December 10, 2019, 11:33:16 AM
I really thought we could squeeze out 1-2 out of this one....oh well....no biggie. We all know gulf lows are normally our only real hope so still waiting on one of those to come through for us again :)

Weíve done quite well with bowling ball ULLs in the northwest flow also- but, thatís a different setup than we have now.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2019, 11:42:32 AM
I really thought we could squeeze out 1-2 out of this one....oh well....no biggie. We all know gulf lows are normally our only real hope so still waiting on one of those to come through for us again :)
if we can ever get a sustain negative nao ... we can get a southern sider and the whole
Board would be very happy  example January 1988
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 10, 2019, 11:43:22 AM
HRRR and NAM3 picked up on the dry air theory yesterday.  Not sure why it's such a surprise this morning.
Your right, it should never be discounted. I am going to pay attention to hrrr and nam3 much closer from here on out. I have seen this type of situation going on today happen before. Without that dry air aloft the gfs may not have been that far off on it's totals. Temp wise my area was 32 at 7 this morning, I have to believe we would have had some snow stick if atmosphere had been saturated. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2019, 11:50:42 AM
HRRR and NAM3 picked up on the dry air theory yesterday.  Not sure why it's such a surprise this morning.

Well, you have to remember a few things. Those of us who are not anywhere near as educated as you are with weather forecasting and modeling are less apt to take most models with a grain of salt. For example, the WRF, RGEM and NAM12k (among other short range models) all showed a light accumulation event for most of the state. It's true that NAM3k and HRRR correctly called this situation, but some folks like myself cross our fingers hoping that those two outliers just might be wrong.

I know it's only December, and we hardly see snow this early in the season, but swing-and-miss systems like this compounded with the dismal past few winters make us more edgy and more wishful for some snow.   ::snowman::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2019, 11:51:30 AM
Your right, it should never be discounted. I am going to pay attention to hrrr and nam3 much closer from here on out. I have seen this type of situation going on today happen before. Without that dry air aloft the gfs may not have been that far off on it's totals. Temp wise my area was 32 at 7 this morning, I have to believe we would have had some snow stick if atmosphere had been saturated. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

at least we had something to monitor and it's still 3 weeks until January :)
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: EastTNWX on December 10, 2019, 12:17:30 PM
Things seem to be trending nicely here in the eastern part of the state.  Temps are cooling faster than expected and dry air wonít be an issue so much. 
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: cgauxknox on December 10, 2019, 12:46:50 PM
Things seem to be trending nicely here in the eastern part of the state.  Temps are cooling faster than expected and dry air wonít be an issue so much.
We've dropped 15 degrees IMBY since before dawn this morning and everything is sopping wet; it's going to feel wintry whether we get accumulating snow or not!  ::cold::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: VandyMachine on December 10, 2019, 12:49:45 PM
Not looking bad here (Cannon County, up the hill toward Mcminnville).

(https://i.ibb.co/DgdBDjw/Snow-12-10-19.jpg) (https://ibb.co/DgdBDjw)

This is already more than I got all last winter. Count this and the two dustings & I have more than doubled my snow totals from last year..lol.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2019, 01:09:48 PM
We've dropped 15 degrees IMBY since before dawn this morning and everything is sopping wet; it's going to feel wintry whether we get accumulating snow or not!  ::cold::
Has it changed over in Knoxville yet? Iím up northeast of Morristown (currently in Kingsport) but live near Morristown.


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: EastTNWX on December 10, 2019, 01:15:32 PM
Not yet but I expect it will change for you first.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2019, 01:16:04 PM
Not looking bad here (Cannon County, up the hill toward Mcminnville).

(https://i.ibb.co/DgdBDjw/Snow-12-10-19.jpg) (https://ibb.co/DgdBDjw)

This is already more than I got all last winter. Count this and the two dustings & I have more than doubled my snow totals from last year..lol.

Nice!! I'm happy somebody in the Mid-State is getting something out of this
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2019, 01:29:16 PM
wishing all this moisture would have reached the ground.....would have had a really good event
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: EastTNWX on December 10, 2019, 01:29:30 PM
North Knox county is starting to change over from what I hear....only about 12 hours earlier than the current forecast!
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Clay on December 10, 2019, 01:32:28 PM
wishing all this moisture would have reached the ground.....would have had a really good event
Just measured about 3" of virga IMBY.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2019, 01:35:32 PM
Just measured about 3" of virga IMBY.

BWAHAHAHAHA..... yep I think a lot of us have several inches of virga in our yards
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Coach B on December 10, 2019, 01:46:14 PM
Snowing again lightly here. Probably had .2" or .3" of slushy accumulation on the grass and elevated surfaces at the peak earlier. The short range models and the GFS did a great job picking up on all of that Virga.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Eric on December 10, 2019, 02:03:06 PM
Well, you have to remember a few things. Those of us who are not anywhere near as educated as you are with weather forecasting and modeling are less apt to take most models with a grain of salt. For example, the WRF, RGEM and NAM12k (among other short range models) all showed a light accumulation event for most of the state. It's true that NAM3k and HRRR correctly called this situation, but some folks like myself cross our fingers hoping that those two outliers just might be wrong.

I know it's only December, and we hardly see snow this early in the season, but swing-and-miss systems like this compounded with the dismal past few winters make us more edgy and more wishful for some snow.   ::snowman::

I get it.  Trust me, I do.  I've got a wife and two kids that yearn for snow.  We moved to Warren Co (McMinnville) and the first thing I get asked is "Will we see more snow that Rutherford Co?"  My heart says yes, but my brain says I hope so.  The problem with the models you listed - WRF, RGEM, NAM12 - are more medium-range than mesoscale.  Like earluer, no model suite should be discounted since it is a valid data source.  However, there's a period where that tool has essentially reached the end of it's usefulness.  At that point, we migrate to another tool.  Even up until yesterday, the GFS was painting a veritable white-out from Memphis to the Smokies even as the NAM3 and HRRR were indicating something wholly different.  Once we see such different solutions between model suites, we need to start looking at WHY they're different.  You see enough winters in Tennessee and you get jaded.  You see modeled events, and instead of thinking to yourself "Yeah, here comes the snow", it's more "OK.  There's an event modeled.  What could go wrong?  What can we see that may make this thing bust?"  It has to be a total paradigm shift in your mind when dealing with snow events in Tennessee - just like severe weather, to be honest.  Bruce, God love him, is adamant there's going to be a severe weather event on "x" date.  Personally, the first thing I do is look at the models and see what could go wrong, and I swear it's not to bust his chops (well...maybe a small part is). 
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: ChattSnow on December 10, 2019, 02:16:22 PM
It has changed to snow in northern Chattanooga.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: bluegrasspr on December 10, 2019, 02:18:57 PM
It has changed to snow in northern Chattanooga.

A few flurries are starting to mix in here in Lenoir City.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 10, 2019, 02:23:59 PM
I get it.  Trust me, I do.  I've got a wife and two kids that yearn for snow.  We moved to Warren Co (McMinnville) and the first thing I get asked is "Will we see more snow that Rutherford Co?"  My heart says yes, but my brain says I hope so.  The problem with the models you listed - WRF, RGEM, NAM12 - are more medium-range than mesoscale.  Like earluer, no model suite should be discounted since it is a valid data source.  However, there's a period where that tool has essentially reached the end of it's usefulness.  At that point, we migrate to another tool.  Even up until yesterday, the GFS was painting a veritable white-out from Memphis to the Smokies even as the NAM3 and HRRR were indicating something wholly different.  Once we see such different solutions between model suites, we need to start looking at WHY they're different.  You see enough winters in Tennessee and you get jaded.  You see modeled events, and instead of thinking to yourself "Yeah, here comes the snow", it's more "OK.  There's an event modeled.  What could go wrong?  What can we see that may make this thing bust?"  It has to be a total paradigm shift in your mind when dealing with snow events in Tennessee - just like severe weather, to be honest.  Bruce, God love him, is adamant there's going to be a severe weather event on "x" date.  Personally, the first thing I do is look at the models and see what could go wrong, and I swear it's not to bust his chops (well...maybe a small part is).

agreed.....a while back I spat on this event...and then things looked more promising even up until 24 hours and I actually believed for the first time in years that this would be a chance at a decent little event, please remember I did not even have one tenth of an inch of snow last year so I am coming off the worst winter in my lifetime as far as snow ( don't get much worse than zero lol )so that clouded my judgement I think as far as wishful thinking lol
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: dwagner88 on December 10, 2019, 02:28:22 PM
Wow. Already have a wintry mix in Chattanooga right now. Wasn't expecting that. Temp is 37 though.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: cgauxknox on December 10, 2019, 02:35:55 PM
Just changed over to snow in West Knoxville; as others have said probably around 12 hours earlier than forecast since locally we weren't supposed to switch until the overnight hours.  We're only down to 39 degrees so we won't see any accumulations this early, but I suspect that will change.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Beth on December 10, 2019, 02:48:55 PM
I am beyond the threat of snow any more. If anything can happen to interfere with it then I most certainly will believe it will happen!  I am sure we will have a nice cold rain for Christmas Eve. I know, Waa Waa! Lol.  But I am happy for all who have or are seeing some.  Treasure it!  ::rant:: ::rant:: ::rant::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: joemomma on December 10, 2019, 03:31:21 PM
We have transitioned from moderate to light snow, to nothing for an hour or two, and now are back to graupel here in northern Putnam.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Charles L. on December 10, 2019, 04:52:17 PM
Looks like northern AL are the real winners. Huntsville looks like they easily have 1/2Ē if not 1Ē on the ground.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Woodvegas on December 10, 2019, 05:03:50 PM
Bradyville, TN in Cannon County at 3:30 pm...

(https://oi1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff501/Woodvegas/th_9B6CA47B-E267-47EF-A92C-CC59D278D8CA_zpskmm1alm9.jpeg) (http://s1239.photobucket.com/user/Woodvegas/media/9B6CA47B-E267-47EF-A92C-CC59D278D8CA_zpskmm1alm9.jpeg.html)

(https://oi1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff501/Woodvegas/th_10986F21-62BF-4B78-A9D6-8C5FF6346498_zps2hy9lnmm.jpeg) (http://s1239.photobucket.com/user/Woodvegas/media/10986F21-62BF-4B78-A9D6-8C5FF6346498_zps2hy9lnmm.jpeg.html)
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: dwagner88 on December 10, 2019, 05:32:51 PM
We are at about 50/50 snow and sleet here and it is starting to stick to the elevated surfaces. Wind is frigid. In my mind this has already way overperformed. We usually totally whiff when cold chases moisture.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: snowdog on December 10, 2019, 05:52:58 PM
It snows south of I-40?
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Coach B on December 10, 2019, 06:04:20 PM
It snows south of I-40?
Yes, Huntsville with the surprise inch again. How many times in the last decade have they outperformed Memphis and Nashville?
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: dwagner88 on December 10, 2019, 06:12:23 PM
It snows south of I-40?
Sort of. If I get more then 0.50Ē it will be the most Iíve seen in almost 5 years. Feb 2015 was our last significant event.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2019, 06:32:29 PM
Coming down good in Upper East Tn. Ground is white and many areas. Hearing of 1Ē-2Ē already around areas north of Knoxville.


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: cgauxknox on December 10, 2019, 06:48:00 PM
Snow is coming down hard in West Knoxville now, beautiful Christmas scene for my drive home  ::yum::
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: mamMATTus on December 10, 2019, 06:54:42 PM
Things I know beyond a shadow of a doubt: The Nashville sNOw dome is a very real thing along with Chattanooga being in one of the worst geographic locations in the country for snow chances with the southern end-opening valley that allows warm air to funnel through. I'll continue to take my new approach of not believing in any accumulating snow forecast until it is actively falling and accumulating on surfaces.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: dwagner88 on December 10, 2019, 07:18:12 PM
Got some 40dbz convective elements in north Alabama working their way this direction. Could get interesting.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: StormNine on December 10, 2019, 07:28:45 PM
Calling for up to 3 inches of snow in the Southern Plateau. 

The main thing that happened with this event was the front was faster so therefore it pushed the event further south.   
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2019, 08:32:47 PM
Right at 1Ē in Northeast Hamblen County (about 4 miles NE of Morristown). Still coming down moderately.


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2019, 08:37:46 PM
Right at 1Ē in Northeast Hamblen County (about 4 miles NE of Morristown). Still coming down moderately.


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Some heavier returns near Knoxville currently. Hopefully heads my way. Could push me closer to 2Ē.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191211/f8ec107e1f1b36673dd0527fa29bddfd.jpg)


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Coach B on December 10, 2019, 09:02:01 PM
I ended up with .4" total for the day. First round in the middle of day laid down a couple of tenths which partially melted. Got another good coating about dark.
Title: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Michael on December 11, 2019, 03:00:11 AM
From MRX...Reported East TN Snow Totals
Maynardville in Union County appears to be the winner at 3.0Ē.
Most areas saw a Trace to 2Ē.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MRX&product=LSR&issuedby=MRX


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Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Thundersnow on December 11, 2019, 05:42:43 AM
Congrats to those who saw snow!
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Eric on December 11, 2019, 08:15:49 AM
Some thoughts from OHX:

Quote
Well that was a very busy evening shift full of wintry fun! Some post-event thoughts from my fried brain: Snow forecasting in Tennessee is always a challenge, and this event was no exception. Despite snow falling aloft all day long, a layer of dry air from the surface to 700mb evaporated nearly all of it that fell across the northwest two-thirds of Middle Tennessee. Over our southern and eastern counties, however, low levels were saturated and anywhere from a dusting to over 3Ē of snow fell. From what Iíve seen, models handled this event quite poorly with some like the GFS showing this dry layer well, yet still spitting out unreasonable 3-6Ē snow accumulations for the entire cwa. Our staff wisely ignored the models and kept forecast snow amounts low (0-1Ē) which ended up being quite close to reality - except the higher elevations of our Cumberland Plateau counties overachieved (as usual) with 2-3+Ē. This event was yet another reminder to not treat model output as gospel, as we unfortunately see people doing all the time on social media.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2019, 08:22:25 AM
Some thoughts from OHX:
smart move.. always ignore the gfs lol...
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: cgauxknox on December 11, 2019, 08:22:42 AM
It's a beautiful morning in East Tennessee:
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 11, 2019, 08:27:00 AM
Yes, Huntsville with the surprise inch again. How many times in the last decade have they outperformed Memphis and Nashville?

They have have at least 4 or 5 events in the past decade of 3+ inches of snow in north alabama which is pathetic for the rest of us in middle tn to think about( excluding n/w sections )
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: snowdog on December 11, 2019, 08:28:10 AM
Some thoughts from OHX:

Some thoughts from Yoda:

Quote
Our column, unsaturated it was.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2019, 08:40:57 AM
They have have at least 4 or 5 events in the past decade of 3+ inches of snow in north alabama which is pathetic for the rest of us in middle tn to think about( excluding n/w sections )
agree... back in 70 s and winters 80s. That hardly ever happen ... Decatur Alabama got two inches
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Thundersnow on December 11, 2019, 08:58:56 AM
Some thoughts from OHX:

Quote
Our staff wisely ignored the models and kept forecast snow amounts low (0-1Ē) which ended up being quite close to reality

Just goes to show- we can criticize the forecast office of "playing it conservative" when a model is bullish, but more often than not, it works out for them. The short-term models that saw the dry air were indeed our sign.

Quote
This event was yet another reminder to not treat model output as gospel, as we unfortunately see people doing all the time on social media.

BOOM! I heard that.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: gcbama on December 11, 2019, 09:02:06 AM
that was the BIGGEST virga storm I have ever seen Ö.I mean EVER.

My area was in dark blue radar returns for 10 hours...normally that would have been 6-8 inches of snow.....and of course yet again not even a tenth of an inch, that is what is depressing. You know you are cursed when radar shows it and mother nature still decides to give you nothing lol
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Thundersnow on December 11, 2019, 09:16:50 AM
that was the BIGGEST virga storm I have ever seen Ö.I mean EVER.

My area was in dark blue radar returns for 10 hours...normally that would have been 6-8 inches of snow.....and of course yet again not even a tenth of an inch, that is what is depressing. You know you are cursed when radar shows it and mother nature still decides to give you nothing lol

The composite radar is really the problem when it comes to virga. I remember some impressive "virga storms" back in the early days of internet looking at the intellicast composite maps showing all the blue in the '90s.

Looking at the local radar though yesterday, at least on RadarScope on my phone, it didn't "lie" so much. The tell-tale sign was seeing the "hole" of no precip within 30 or so miles of the radar site. The outer range of the radar further out would show precip, like for example, over the Fort Campbell/Clarksville area from the Nashville radar site. But, when you went to the Fort Campbell radar, it showed a similar "hole" over that area, but precip falling over the Nashville area, oddly enough. That effect (for those who don't know) is because the radar beam naturally elevates up with distance. So, the further out from the radar site you go, the higher up in the atmosphere it's reading any precipitation. Basically, snow was falling high up, and distant radar sites see it. The closer radar sites, of course, don't see anything at the lower levels.

But, a composite radar basically combines overlapping radar coverage areas, which creates the illusion that it's snowing all over the place, when it's only falling high up, in reality.

I'm not sure how you effectively solve that with a composite radar.
Title: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Curt on December 11, 2019, 09:58:17 AM
smart move.. always ignore the gfs lol...

I havenít had a chance to comment with being hectic busy.

Take every model into account. It might nail the next one. And as far wish-casting- lets give credit to just about everyone on this board that knows when they see  an outlier. I didnít see anyone taking that to the bank. I was shocked that the GFS couldnít pick up on what even other globals were seeing. As far as globals, the euro started picking up on the southward trend 2 days earlier. The 3k NAM picked up on the precip barely making it above 40 from Memphis to Nashville. It actually had snowfall totals overdone in the areas that saw some accumulation. The RGEM was overdone.

And now the post day griping. It happens and people will say ďit snows more further south now than hereĒ. I remember debunking that last year with some snowfall amounts from around the region. Almost every single time over the last decade, the further north one is will generally will do better on average. The only exception in the last decade I could find was Little Rock which has had really decent winters in the last 10 years.

Keeping in mind we live in the south,  this decade IMBY was better than the previous 10, and most certainly the 90ís.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Crockett on December 11, 2019, 10:35:05 AM
The HRRR absolutely nailed this yesterday when it began to pick up on the secondary divergence, which really enhanced snowfall across a limited area of the northern plateau once darkness fell. The gradient was quite sharp, and I was on the wrong side of it; we only had a glorified dusting here at the house. But just about 20 minutes east, the state highway was closed due to multiple accidents after a period of moderate snowfall. They got around 3 inches in that area, and the HRRR nailed the gradient as well as amounts.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Hank W on December 11, 2019, 11:04:48 AM
Quote
From what Iíve seen, models handled this event quite poorly with some like the GFS showing this dry layer well, yet still spitting out unreasonable 3-6Ē snow accumulations for the entire cwa. Our staff wisely ignored the models and kept forecast snow amounts low (0-1Ē) which ended up being quite close to reality - except the higher elevations of our Cumberland Plateau counties overachieved (as usual) with 2-3+Ē. This event was yet another reminder to not treat model output as gospel, as we unfortunately see people doing all the time on social media.
Great reminder of how much more NWS knows than we do. We have all learned to take the models with a grain of salt, but most of us can't help but start to buy in when the event is 36 hours out and every model, even NAM 3k, is showing large pockets of 3+ inches with some...cough RGEM, GFS...showing some insane numbers. Granted the 3k had the lowest totals, but it was the outlier. Obviously the ground temps had to be taken into account and we have all been burned enough times to know to cut down on those numbers, but even if you take 1/3 of what models were showing, it still would have been a decent December event. But give the credit to the NWS mets, they dug much deeper than the precip and accum maps and sniffed this one out from the start. And congrats to the folks who have snow on the ground!
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: EastTNWX on December 11, 2019, 11:31:48 AM
Great reminder of how much more NWS knows than we do.

This goes both ways though, as the MRX office busted on the low end for both this storm and the November event.  They basically did the same thing as the Nash office did but were wrong.  At the end of the day they're just people that do the exact same thing that the uber hobbyists do on this and other forums.  They just happen to get paid for it.  The big takeaway from this to me is to emphasize that models are just a small part of the puzzle; climatology and local geographic features are larger pieces and instinct itself is the biggest piece. 

Post Merge: December 11, 2019, 11:32:38 AM
I ended up with a little over an inch here in Farragut for the event. 
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Crockett on December 11, 2019, 11:42:00 AM
At the end of the day they're just people that do the exact same thing that the uber hobbyists do on this and other forums.  They just happen to get paid for it. 

How many people do you think there are active on this forum who could stand in a room with anyone from the NWS and match wits on weather? I can think of one or two who might be able to hold their own.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2019, 01:03:25 PM
At the end of the day they're just people that do the exact same thing that the uber hobbyists do on this and other forums.  They just happen to get paid for it.

I disagree entirely
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Coach B on December 11, 2019, 01:31:27 PM
Sat pic shows exactly who got the significant snow. Noticed the stripe of accumulation in Giles, Marshall, and Bedford counties.

https://ibb.co/wNq9B68 (https://ibb.co/wNq9B68)

Well, I guess the best I can do is a link. Can't remember how to post a pic.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: EastTNWX on December 11, 2019, 03:35:50 PM
How many people do you think there are active on this forum who could stand in a room with anyone from the NWS and match wits on weather? I can think of one or two who might be able to hold their own.

No offense intended. 
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Crockett on December 11, 2019, 03:47:28 PM
No offense intended.

I'm not offended...I'm not a meteorologist and I couldn't hold a candle to them either.  ;D
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: EastTNWX on December 11, 2019, 04:06:27 PM
I'm not offended...I'm not a meteorologist and I couldn't hold a candle to them either.  ;D

Iím sure your local office Mets are great, what I said was not specific to them and wasnít really the subject of my original comment anyway.  I worked closely with one of the MCO Mets and while he was a good guy I trust that more than a couple here would be capable replacements..and he worked a far more difficult region than the mid south.  That is apart from the point I made that models arenít as important as local knowledge and experience anyway.
Title: Re: Dec 10-11th Snow Event
Post by: Coach B on December 12, 2019, 10:54:35 AM
Final totals from OHX:

Quote
...DECEMBER 10, 2019 SNOWFALL REPORTS...
..MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...BEDFORD COUNTY...
BELL BUCKLE 2.0 SE           0.8 IN    0700 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             
1.2 SW SHELBYVILLE           0.8 IN    1130 PM 12/10   COOP                 
SHELBYVILLE 7.5 NW           0.3 IN    0700 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             

...CANNON COUNTY...
WOODBURY 4.0 SE              0.9 IN    0510 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             

...COFFEE COUNTY...
MANCHESTER 6.5 ENE           0.8 IN    0700 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             
MANCHESTER                   0.4 IN    0600 AM 12/11   COOP                 
MANCHESTER 2.4 NNW           0.3 IN    0500 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
12 S CROSSVILLE              3.0 IN    0841 PM 12/10   SOCIAL MEDIA
PLEASANT HILL                3.0 IN    0745 PM 12/10   SOCIAL MEDIA
CROSSVILLE 6.9 S             2.5 IN    0700 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             
BIG LICK                     2.5 IN    0620 PM 12/10   BROADCAST MEDIA
CROSSVILLE 4.7 S             2.0 IN    0800 AM 12/11   COCORAHS
LAKE TANSI                   2.0 IN    0700 PM 12/10   SOCIAL MEDIA
3 NW FAIRFIELD GLADE         2.0 IN    0640 PM 12/10   SOCIAL MEDIA             
FAIRFIELD GLADE 0.1 NNW      1.8 IN    0700 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             

...DE KALB COUNTY...
1.7 E SMITHVILLE             0.5 IN    0700 AM 12/11   COOP                 

...FENTRESS COUNTY...
JAMESTOWN 3.1 SE             0.7 IN    0530 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             
ALLARDT                      0.5 IN    0930 AM 12/11   COOP                 
CLARKRANGE 6.0 NE            0.5 IN    0700 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             

...GILES COUNTY...
PULASKI                      0.1 IN    0600 AM 12/11   COOP                 

...GRUNDY COUNTY...
COALMONT                     2.5 IN    0630 PM 12/10   SOCIAL MEDIA
MONTEAGLE                    2.5 IN    0727 PM 12/10   SOCIAL MEDIA
PALMER MOUNTAIN              2.2 IN    0630 PM 12/10   EMERGENCY MNGR       
BEERSHEBA SPRINGS 2.1 ENE    1.7 IN    0501 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             

...MARSHALL COUNTY...
LEWISBURG 6.2 SSE            1.3 IN    0730 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             

...MAURY COUNTY...
COLUMBIA 1.2 SSW             0.1 IN    0700 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             

...OVERTON COUNTY...
RICKMAN 3.8 ESE              0.4 IN    0700 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             

...PUTNAM COUNTY...
MONTEREY 3.9 W               1.0 IN    0800 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             
1.8 NW MONTEREY              1.0 IN    0600 AM 12/11   COOP                 
COOKEVILLE                   0.8 IN    0415 PM 12/10   BROADCAST MEDIA     
COOKEVILLE 3.9 E             0.5 IN    0700 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             

...VAN BUREN COUNTY...
FALL CREEK FALLS ST PARK     2.0 IN    0719 AM 12/11   COOP                 

...WARREN COUNTY...
MCMINNVILLE 8.5 ESE          2.0 IN    0700 AM 12/11   COCORAHS
4 ESE VIOLA                  0.9 IN    0635 PM 12/10   SOCIAL MEDIA             
MORRISON 1.9 SSW             0.5 IN    0600 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             

...WHITE COUNTY...
SPARTA                       1.0 IN    0445 PM 12/10   BROADCAST MEDIA     
SPARTA 8.6 NW                0.9 IN    0700 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             
SPARTA 2.0 WSW               0.5 IN    0800 AM 12/11   COCORAHS             
1.6 N SPARTA                 0.2 IN    0800 AM 12/11   COOP                 

...WILLIAMSON COUNTY...
2.2 N SPRING HILL            0.1 IN    1200 AM 12/11   COOP                 
SPRING HILL 2.2 N            0.1 IN    1159 PM 12/10   COCORAHS