Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Curt on November 10, 2019, 07:21:06 AM

Title: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Curt on November 10, 2019, 07:21:06 AM
This should help alleviate where to post over the next 48 hours given the arctic front and chances for light snow. Itís worthy of its own thread given early in the season.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 10, 2019, 07:58:32 AM
BOOM! Let's get us a little coating of snow! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: StormNine on November 10, 2019, 08:10:39 AM
Reminder:

Before getting too excited that the models show 2-4 inches of snow across a large part of TN (except for the GFS that keeps it closer to the KY/TN border and points north).  Realize that due to a warm and wet ground that you should only take about half of what is being depicted.  In reality, a 2-4 inch event is probably a 1-2 inch event and around 1 inch is probably a dusting to a half-inch.

Just a note from your friendly I have been burned by models for like 14 years weather poster.   
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on November 10, 2019, 08:19:41 AM

Just a note from your friendly I have been burned by models for like 14 years weather poster.   
::rofl::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 10, 2019, 08:24:38 AM
Reminder:

Before getting too excited that the models show 2-4 inches of snow across a large part of TN (except for the GFS that keeps it closer to the KY/TN border and points north).  Realize that due to a warm and wet ground that you should only take about half of what is being depicted.  In reality, a 2-4 inch event is probably a 1-2 inch event and around 1 inch is probably a dusting to a half-inch.

Just a note from your friendly I have been burned by models for like 14 years weather poster.   
Yep, no doubt I will take a inch of snow in November and run right now. LOL! ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Charles L. on November 10, 2019, 09:44:18 AM
GFS holds serve with a nice dusting-1Ē event for most.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on November 10, 2019, 10:03:56 AM
Knoxville looks like a sweet spot in the most recent runs. Too bad I'm not living there rn
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: mamMATTus on November 10, 2019, 10:56:41 AM
Is there any chance we can get arctic air to rush in quicker?
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: BRUCE on November 10, 2019, 11:02:10 AM
Is there any chance we can get arctic air to rush in quicker?
not really... front gets here West Tennessee late afternoon tomorrow...most the precip is out ahead the frontal boundary... classic cold air chasing moisture ...

Post Merge: November 10, 2019, 11:03:59 AM
But it will be two Novemberís back to back we see flakes... thatís good... just hope this doesnít turn out like last winter ...
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Charles L. on November 10, 2019, 11:42:10 AM
The Euro is also showing a nice November snow! An area wide dusting-1Ē would be great to see.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 10, 2019, 12:52:51 PM
RGEM

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clint on November 10, 2019, 02:34:07 PM
18Z NAM 12km

(https://i.imgur.com/PEu7UAp.png)
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Curt on November 10, 2019, 02:36:55 PM
If the RGEM is close to being correct, this is more than just a nuisance event esp for being so early in the season. Near Memphis, it has up to 0.10 in QPF In freezing rain, half to one inch of sleet(up the entire 40 corridor) and a half inch of snow. The warm ground and early in the season event may help limit. Should be interesting to see this play out. NWS has been downplaying the frozen part and rightly so but it could be an over achiever for this early in the season standard.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Flash on November 10, 2019, 03:29:23 PM
I know this sounds petty, but Iím about to go mow my lawn. If we get a half inch, I want it to look like more.  >:D
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on November 10, 2019, 03:56:40 PM
I know this sounds petty, but Iím about to go mow my lawn. If we get a half inch, I want it to look like more.  >:D

Ha- you know I have done the same thing in the past for the same reason- lower that blade.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on November 10, 2019, 03:57:35 PM
15Z SREF Plumes:


TN

MEM: Trace
BNA: 1.4"
CHA: 0.5"
TYS: 2.0"
TRI: 1.8"
CSV: 0.6" (seems low given the others)


KY

PAH: 1.8"
HOP: 1.7"
BWG: 2.1"


AL

HSV: Trace

Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: snowdog on November 10, 2019, 04:00:44 PM
It's going to be a good winter when we are breaking out SREF plumes in early November.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on November 10, 2019, 04:02:59 PM
It's going to be a good winter when we are breaking out SREF plumes in early November.

Hope so! Not to be negative, but although accumulating snow occurred in Mississippi last November, the rest of the season was a total dud.

This coming winter's setup is very different, thank goodness.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 10, 2019, 04:17:44 PM
15Z SREF Plumes:


TN

MEM: Trace
BNA: 1.4"
CHA: 0.5"
TYS: 2.0"
TRI: 1.8"
CSV: 0.6" (seems low given the others)


KY

PAH: 1.8"
HOP: 1.7"
BWG: 2.1"


AL

HSV: Trace
Good action, try to get me a CKV reading next time. Thanks for the info though, like looking at that stuff. At least we have something to follow tomorrow afternoon and night, even if minor with it being so early in the season it's fun. Would be nice for most to get a little even if it's a half inch to a inch it would be fun to see early Tuesday morning. Anything more than that is a great start hopefully for more weather in the coming months. ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Flash on November 10, 2019, 04:51:12 PM
Good action, try to get me a CKV reading next time. Thanks for the info though, like looking at that stuff. At least we have something to follow tomorrow afternoon and night, even if minor with it being so early in the season it's fun. Would be nice for most to get a little even if it's a half inch to a inch it would be fun to see early Tuesday morning. Anything more than that is a great start hopefully for more weather in the coming months. ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Generally, I'd advise people to cut the plumes in half. That said, 1.4" for BNA is double where it was earlier this AM. Good trends still holding it seems.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: dwagner88 on November 10, 2019, 05:35:20 PM
I am not expecting any accumulation outside elevated areas, but I do think everyone will see some flakes fly. Canít ask for much more than that this early in the season. Watch for flash freezing on bridges. That is going to be an issue.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: StormNine on November 10, 2019, 06:17:04 PM
It coming through at night may counteract the warm ground temperatures somewhat.  I wouldn't expect much on roads although you do have to worry about Black Ice in the morning.  If one goes under a heavier band then you could see about 1 inch on grassy or elevated surfaces.  It is still early so a dusting to a half-inch should suffice for most.  Now if it is February 10th and we are in this position then that is another story. 
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Curt on November 10, 2019, 07:43:07 PM
Latest SREF (21z) Snow Amounts
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191111/1b0d3e7b9a0972e4c53ddea7b9e65390.jpg)

Sleet Amounts
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191111/f5a85da3e58cdf0df38df71831a0bee0.jpg)

I think NWS is counting on warm ground temps to limit any accumulation of either. Short term modeling should be interesting overnight.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: StormNine on November 10, 2019, 08:20:59 PM
The HRRR 0Z is pretty consistent with the SREF.  The key to getting anyone into a solid Advisory event will be rates.  Lighter rates won't do much.  Heavier rates could net someone 1+ inch of snow and maybe some sleet on top.   

Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: snowdog on November 10, 2019, 09:55:21 PM
Good to see the ol I-40 snow line on the SREF.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on November 10, 2019, 10:24:26 PM
0Z HRRR holds serve with a swath of 2" across the Mid-State.

I'm confident that I can expect at least a half inch in my area. I'll take it!
Title: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Michael on November 10, 2019, 10:43:35 PM
00z Hi-Res NAM isnít as bullish
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191111/96cffa3d82886fa5b5c3efa1bd2aeb3f.jpg)

00z GFS though (NE TN FTW!)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191111/2ba5ba437b65229c935d7e215197c202.jpg)


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Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on November 11, 2019, 04:22:17 AM
OHX has introduced ďpossibly mixed with freezing rainĒ to the zones. I guess thatís the dense Arctic air wedging in under still relatively warmer air above it.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: snowdog on November 11, 2019, 06:37:16 AM
Last night's Euro main run is in good agreement with the ensembles, around an inch for BNA.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: pirates1 on November 11, 2019, 07:08:40 AM
When you say around an inch for BNA you mean total not what actually sticks, right?  So enough for a nuisance getting to school in WillCo tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: snowdog on November 11, 2019, 07:32:22 AM
When you say around an inch for BNA you mean total not what actually sticks, right?  So enough for a nuisance getting to school in WillCo tomorrow.

Honestly, I dont know. Depends on the algorithm.

If you want local detail, best to use your local weather office forecast. They have the professional expertise needed for the finer details.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: gcbama on November 11, 2019, 08:07:23 AM
I think yet again another near miss.....ky will get 1-2 inches
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 11, 2019, 08:09:53 AM
I think yet again another near miss.....ky will get 1-2 inches
For your area you are probably right, you are awful far south. You might see a passing flurry though.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Beth on November 11, 2019, 08:17:04 AM
I canít believe we have a snow threat to even follow this time of year, lol. Although one Nov. my Mother and I had a yardsale in her basement and there was a light dusting on of snow on the ground.  It was one of the best yardsales we ever had.  And the only one around too. Lol!  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: wfrogge on November 11, 2019, 09:23:13 AM
I need everybody in the state to turn your AC on and open your windows soon as the cold front passes. Its the only way we will get accumulating ::guitar:: snow.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: bugalou on November 11, 2019, 10:15:30 AM
I need everybody in the state to turn your AC on and open your windows soon as the cold front passes. Its the only way we will get accumulating ::guitar:: snow.

With this kind of cold your AC would actually be warming up the air.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: gcbama on November 11, 2019, 10:42:39 AM
For your area you are probably right, you are awful far south. You might see a passing flurry though.

I just never ever trust cold front snows anywayÖ.not a lot of moisture with those ...now low pressure then hardly any accumulation imo
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Michael on November 11, 2019, 10:49:42 AM
My East Tn folks...12z NAM 3k...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191111/56f4aa6e6fd6e46d47c3f1d54829c435.jpg)


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Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Michael on November 11, 2019, 10:57:09 AM
Winter Weather Advisory for Plateau and Mountains
https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TNZ013&warncounty=TNC013&firewxzone=TNZ013&local_place1=4%20Miles%20SSW%20Newcomb%20TN&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=36.4832&lon=-84.2268#.XcmR_CVOmaM



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Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: bugalou on November 11, 2019, 11:37:15 AM
I have a feeling MEG will go with WWA despite being under advisery criteria just for the fact a flash freeze is highly likely on wet surfaces and this being such an early season event (what ever amounts of winter precip do fall).
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Michael on November 11, 2019, 12:39:03 PM
12z models all show accumulations of 1Ē+ for East Tn, Valley included.


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Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: joemomma on November 11, 2019, 01:01:03 PM
Saw a Twitter post regarding some rain moving in earlier than modeled - what does this mean for the snow tonight, if anything?
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: wfrogge on November 11, 2019, 01:06:45 PM
Saw a Twitter post regarding some rain moving in earlier than modeled - what does this mean for the snow tonight, if anything?

Means nothing
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Charles L. on November 11, 2019, 01:08:36 PM
Winter Wx Advisories expanded to the KY/TN border. I would be content with 1/2Ē snow out of this event, and if the HRRR is to be believed that may be the best case scenario for anyone in middle TN.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: mempho on November 11, 2019, 01:26:48 PM
I have a feeling MEG will go with WWA despite being under advisery criteria just for the fact a flash freeze is highly likely on wet surfaces and this being such an early season event (what ever amounts of winter precip do fall).
I've never seen a flash freeze materialize here.

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Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: wfrogge on November 11, 2019, 01:40:16 PM
I've never seen a flash freeze materialize here.

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Yeah, flash freezing is quite rare everywhere and even more so in our neck of the woods.  The winds are going to be blowing hard with depoints dropping. Evaporation will happen quickly.  **** TDOT didnt even bother spraying brine this time in my neck of the woods
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Susan on November 11, 2019, 01:43:01 PM
Quote
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
138 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

TNZ005>009-023>031-056>065-075-077>080-093>095-121000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Houston-Humphreys-
Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-Perry-
Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-
White-Bedford-Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield,
Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Erin,
Tennessee Ridge, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson,
Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet,
Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro,
Linden, Lobelville, Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood,
Columbia, Lewisburg, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Woodbury,
Smithville, Sparta, Shelbyville, Tullahoma, Manchester,
McMinnville, Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton, Waynesboro,
Lawrenceburg, and Pulaski
138 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

...Good Chance of Light Snow Accumulations Tonight...

An approaching cold front has brought rain showers into Middle TN,
but by early this evening, a cold air mass following the frontal
system will help to change the rain briefly to a rain/snow/sleet
mix and eventually over to all snow.

Snowfall accumulations are expected to be light, with up to around
an inch possible on the northern Cumberland Plateau, and a
dusting up to around a half inch elsewhere.


Travel impacts should be minimal west of the Cumberland Plateau.
However, some slick spots will be possible on area roadways,
especially on bridges and overpasses. Travel impacts will be
possible across the Plateau Tuesday morning due to slightly more
snowfall.

Wind chills may be one of the larger impacts Tuesday morning, with
low teen to single digit wind chills possible across all of
Middle TN.

Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 11, 2019, 02:05:08 PM
Paducah office saying they are going to expand the WWA for their entire area. They say that colder air is moving in quicker than expected conditions should deteriorate after dark. Read it in the forecast discussion.  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: gcbama on November 11, 2019, 02:09:56 PM
Paducah office saying they are going to expand the WWA for their entire area. They say that colder air is moving in quicker than expected conditions should deteriorate after dark. Read it in the forecast discussion.  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

I agree, I said it yesterday I think, most all of ky will get a nice wide area of 1-2 inches of snow,  they will have a lot more moisture when the cold air arrives than we will I think
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: bugalou on November 11, 2019, 02:14:46 PM
I've never seen a flash freeze materialize here.

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If it can happen, this is the type of system that can do it as the dew points aren't going to crash immediately with the anafrontal element.  More over its more about the possibility of it happening somewhere in the CWA combined with falling frozen precip.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 11, 2019, 02:24:21 PM
I agree, I said it yesterday I think, most all of ky will get a nice wide area of 1-2 inches of snow,  they will have a lot more moisture when the cold air arrives than we will I think
I am located in northwest middle tn about 5 miles from the Kentucky border. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on November 11, 2019, 02:26:21 PM
I remember a very distinct flash freeze event back in December 1989. If you don't remember, that was a frigidly cold month.

I was a freshman in high school, and it was during final exams before Christmas break. It was raining and in the 40s. An arctic front came crashing in, and the rain changed to sleet, and temps dropped quickly into the 20s. The water on the streets froze, and the area became a skating rink around Nashville. There were wrecks everywhere.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Beth on November 11, 2019, 02:36:58 PM
I remember a very distinct flash freeze event back in December 1989. If you don't remember, that was a frigidly cold month.

I was a freshman in high school, and it was during final exams before Christmas break. It was raining and in the 40s. An arctic front came crashing in, and the rain changed to sleet, and temps dropped quickly into the 20s. The water on the streets froze, and the area became a skating rink around Nashville. There were wrecks everywhere.
I remember that!  I lived in Charlotte park in West Nashville.  It took hours for my husband to get home from work.  That was a rough December!
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: JHart on November 11, 2019, 03:03:45 PM
I remember a very distinct flash freeze event back in December 1989. If you don't remember, that was a frigidly cold month.

I was a freshman in high school, and it was during final exams before Christmas break. It was raining and in the 40s. An arctic front came crashing in, and the rain changed to sleet, and temps dropped quickly into the 20s. The water on the streets froze, and the area became a skating rink around Nashville. There were wrecks everywhere.

I was a graduate student at Vanderbilt at the time.  I remember driving home to Arkansas the next day, and the radiator on my car froze just east of Memphis.  I nearly died trying to hitch a ride into Forrest City.  The air temperature was -2F at the time.  My hitching attempt was unsuccessful, and I was blown into a ditch by a semi.  Returning wet and rapidly freezing to the car, I discovered the radiator had thawed enough to restart the vehicle.  Over the next hour I slowly drove the car into Forrest City where I was able to call my Dad.

I don't care ever to relive that.   ::cold:: ::cold:: ::cold::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: BRUCE on November 11, 2019, 03:09:41 PM
I was a graduate student at Vanderbilt at the time.  I remember driving home to Arkansas the next day, and the radiator on my car froze just east of Memphis.  I nearly died trying to hitch a ride into Forrest City.  The air temperature was -2F at the time.  My hitching attempt was unsuccessful, and I was blown into a ditch by a semi.  Returning wet and rapidly freezing to the car, I discovered the radiator had thawed enough to restart the vehicle.  Over the next hour I slowly drove the car into Forrest City where I was able to call my Dad.

I don't care ever to relive that.   ::cold:: ::cold:: ::cold::
yeah remember it well too ... didnít get out of the single digits for high that Friday ...
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Curt on November 11, 2019, 03:52:21 PM
Thunderstorms over central Arkansas currently- that may be an issue for multiple precip types vs all snow for the small window later tonight.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: wfrogge on November 11, 2019, 03:55:21 PM
Thunderstorms over central Arkansas currently- that may be an issue for multiple precip types vs all snow for the small window later tonight.

Saw this and when I look at the rapid refresh models it shows some heavy precipitation in the frozen variety when it hits the MS river.  Might pull down some cold air and move up the predicted timeline for ice/snow :)
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on November 11, 2019, 03:56:51 PM
MEG says sleet has started in NE Ark. isnít that a couple hours ahead of schedule?


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Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: wfrogge on November 11, 2019, 04:01:07 PM
MEG says sleet has started in NE Ark. isnít that a couple hours ahead of schedule?


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mPING reports around the Little Rock area say sleet too
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: joemomma on November 11, 2019, 04:05:25 PM
Maybe this thing over-performs.  Won't hurt my feelings at all.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Charles L. on November 11, 2019, 04:06:33 PM
Freezing temps are starting to enter western KY.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: gcbama on November 11, 2019, 04:08:45 PM
unless that area between little rock and Fayetteville fills in a lot with moisture in the next little bit a lot of people are going to be disappointed
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on November 11, 2019, 04:18:48 PM
MEG says sleet has started in NE Ark. isnít that a couple hours ahead of schedule?


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NWS Paducah, KY branch reported that the front is advancing faster than the forecast.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 11, 2019, 04:34:53 PM
Paducah down to 32-33 we are at 41 here. ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Flash on November 11, 2019, 05:06:29 PM
Paducah down to 32-33 we are at 41 here. ::guitar:: ::snowman::

49 in the Bluff. Seems Clarksville often splits the difference in setups like this.

Edit: Now down to 44. Dropped 5 degrees in 10-15 minutes. Crazy!
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on November 11, 2019, 05:12:32 PM
Latest HRRR (22Z) is more bullish.

In this "cold chasing moisture" scenario, the front is arriving faster than forecast. Let's hope that trend continues tonight. I'd like to see some snow!

My hope is an inch on the grass and nothing on the roads. My expectation is half an inch on the grass with patches of ice on the roads.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 11, 2019, 05:14:53 PM
Moderate wintry mix in the burg. 33 degrees
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Flash on November 11, 2019, 05:16:50 PM
Latest HRRR (22Z) is more bullish.

In this "cold chasing moisture" scenario, the front is arriving faster than forecast. Let's hope that trend continues tonight. I'd like to see some snow!

My hope is an inch on the grass and nothing on the roads. My expectation is half an inch on the grass with patches of ice on the roads.

Yeah, even the hourlies on the weather apps have advanced by an hour. I know thatís hardly a trustworthy reference point, but interesting nonetheless. 
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 11, 2019, 05:17:52 PM
Down to 38 here in Montgomery County. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 11, 2019, 05:55:08 PM
We have had crazy heavy sleet the last 30 minutes. Have not been out but I know cars are covered.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Drifter49 on November 11, 2019, 06:07:06 PM
Wife just said it was sleeting at Paris Landing.


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Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Drifter49 on November 11, 2019, 06:10:35 PM
MEG just threw up the WWA.


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Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: snowdog on November 11, 2019, 06:19:37 PM
We have had crazy heavy sleet the last 30 minutes. Have not been out but I know cars are covered.

The sleet capitol of TN.

Well Dyer has his sleet, now Charles needs his usual 1/2" of snow and we'll call it a day.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Charles L. on November 11, 2019, 06:22:34 PM
The sleet capitol of TN.

Well Dyer has his sleet, now Charles needs his usual 1/2" of snow and we'll call it a day.

😂😂 itís coming!
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 11, 2019, 06:31:23 PM
That's a very heavy band of precip around the paris,tn area. Sleet mixing in here now. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: StormNine on November 11, 2019, 06:43:54 PM
Snow/sleet mix here in Hopkinsville with already a solid dusting on elevated surfaces. 
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on November 11, 2019, 06:44:06 PM
For those of you fellow youngins who have Snapchat (and those hip parents and grandparents), check out Snapchat Maps for locals' updates on winter wx. People from West TN are posting sleet and heavy snow falling. Not much in the way of accumulation, but that part of the state wasn't expecting very much to begin with.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 11, 2019, 06:51:59 PM
Sleet and snow falling here in woodlawn, really coming down good but even heavier returns just to the west. Paris is getting something heavy according to radar looks. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 11, 2019, 06:53:45 PM
Snowing now. I am hearing reports of slick roads in southern Obion county from the heavy sleet. I assume that was the reason for the WWA.
Title: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Curt on November 11, 2019, 06:54:44 PM
32 degree line closing in on Memphis metro. Iím hearing sleet on the windows now.

Edit all sleet here now
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: gcbama on November 11, 2019, 07:08:25 PM
412 gets screwed again
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on November 11, 2019, 07:31:44 PM
Sleet here in Jackson now.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Flash on November 11, 2019, 07:38:41 PM
Doing a little chasing on Hwy 48 and can confirm the sleet/rain line around Cumberland Furnace. Hopefully not too long until that hits 70.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 11, 2019, 07:38:41 PM
Looks like a band of snow trying to form in eastern Arkansas. Still light snow here atm. Roofs and cars are white

Obion County

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Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 11, 2019, 07:46:09 PM
Ground is white here. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Beth on November 11, 2019, 07:49:02 PM
Sleet mixing with rain here in South Dickson.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: marjl21 on November 11, 2019, 07:50:35 PM
Still all liquid falling in Germantown, but there is already a glaze of ice on trees, power lines, and cars.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Beth on November 11, 2019, 08:44:00 PM
Snow mixing in now!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on November 11, 2019, 08:55:49 PM
Sleet mixed with rain in Fairview.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: spanarkle08 on November 11, 2019, 09:00:23 PM
Back porch iced over in Clarksburg...noticed Madison Co has called off school tomorrow
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 11, 2019, 09:41:45 PM
There have been numerous accidents in the Clarksville area. Ground is covered and it is still snowing. Some roads are very slick from what I am hearing. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clay on November 11, 2019, 09:42:50 PM
Sleet at Nippers Corner/ South Nashville.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 11, 2019, 09:48:21 PM
Still in the air coming in from MSP. Howís the drive gona be from the airport to West Nashville??
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on November 11, 2019, 09:56:21 PM
Still in the air coming in from MSP. Howís the drive gona be from the airport to West Nashville??

I would say wet streets... with a rain/sleet and maybe snow mix by the time youíre making that drive, depending on when you land.

I bet slick patches develop later into the night, early morning hours.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on November 11, 2019, 10:03:39 PM
I'd say this is it for us in my neck of the woods. Radar is drying up and we just got some light sleet.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clay on November 11, 2019, 10:13:50 PM
Correlation Coefficient paints a sleet/snow changeover line roughly from Dickson to Downtown Nashville to Mt Juliet. Anyone confirm?
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: mamMATTus on November 11, 2019, 10:14:26 PM
Mixed sleet/freezing rain in Hermitage and itís definitely accreting on cars and elevated surfaces. Iíd say by more morning my apartment steps are going to be pretty icy and I might have some problems opening my car doors.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: EastTNWX on November 11, 2019, 10:19:44 PM
I'd say this is it for us in my neck of the woods. Radar is drying up and we just got some light sleet.

Did you move out there recently? I thought you were a Knoxvillian?
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: mamMATTus on November 11, 2019, 10:26:29 PM
Thatís a very solid band just west of Dickson moving due East.

Post Merge: November 11, 2019, 10:38:16 PM
Radar says we have transitioned to full on snow but thatís not the case just yet. Still mostly FZR and sleet with flakes starting to mix in.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clay on November 11, 2019, 10:48:09 PM
KBNA reporting snow as of 10:30pm
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on November 11, 2019, 10:51:56 PM
Did you move out there recently? I thought you were a Knoxvillian?

I have been there for school but I'm currently living elsewhere
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Clay on November 11, 2019, 10:57:38 PM
Snow mixing in IMBY
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 11, 2019, 11:50:08 PM
OHB in bellevue on the hills were starting to get covered and was very slick coming in. That was around 11:25pm
Title: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Michael on November 12, 2019, 12:44:49 AM
Is it snowing or at least sleeting in Starkville, MS?


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Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Brad on November 12, 2019, 04:05:10 AM
Just woke up and looked at the radar. East TN looks to be getting hammered. Near Jefferson City briefly showed some 50 dbz returns! Seems like a lot more moisture in place over there which I suppose was expected but still!

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191112/178c6217d8006379f570a1a354c31acf.jpg)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191112/05696b6f41c50c1517f68b3e2dfb9713.jpg)
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: mempho on November 12, 2019, 04:39:00 AM
KMEM forecasted high of 29 on 11/12!!!  That is crazy stuff.  Look at these temps versus the record low maximum temp-  this is an almost unbelievable in terms of magnitude (from MEG) :

Quote
Below is a table consisting of our climate sites, the forecasted high today, and the record low maximum temperature with the year it occurred.
Memphis...29...37 (1920)
Jackson...27...40 (1976)
Jonesboro...29...39 (2014)
 Tupelo...32...43 (1968)
[/quote ]



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Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: cgauxknox on November 12, 2019, 04:41:36 AM
Yards and cars are covered with snow in Knoxville this morning but the roads seem to be clear. It's a nice treat to see some on the ground so early.
Title: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Michael on November 12, 2019, 05:13:28 AM
Snowing good here in NE TN. Ground is solid white. Will post pics after daylight. Just eyeballing my deck, looks close to 1/2Ē on ground and currently light snow. Iím located between Morristown and Rogersville.


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Title: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2019, 06:30:51 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191112/3c28de2c4995a6b7a5decc30f5be98a4.jpg)

Nice MS River Effect snow bands with a due north wind over warm water.

Downtown Memphis is about to be under one heck of a band for this area anyways. Gusty north winds should make the bridge crossing interesting.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Michael on November 12, 2019, 06:47:17 AM
A solid 1Ē. Still light snow coming down. Should end shortly here in NE Hamblen County.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191112/97dda8601b131e9399a8833d187d0308.jpg)


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Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: RobD on November 12, 2019, 06:49:36 AM
KMEM forecasted high of 29 on 11/12!!!  That is crazy stuff.  Look at these temps versus the record low maximum temp-  this is an almost unbelievable in terms of magnitude (from MEG) :


And to think that we broke all kinds of records a mere 5 weeks ago for record high maximum temps!
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: cgauxknox on November 12, 2019, 07:14:35 AM
I had an early morning appointment so had to go out before daybreak and clear off the truck.  This snow is like wet concrete; classic for what we see when we get accumulation with temps hovering just above freezing.  The roads were completely clear, just wet.  I'm hoping that some sunlight and wind during the day will dry them out before they have a chance to get black ice with the cold temperatures tonight.  Local news is saying we may break a record for overnight lows.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: StormNine on November 12, 2019, 07:16:32 AM
This airmass is so cold that if it were January we would still be 15-20 degrees below average.

A far cry from the 95-100F temperatures a little over a month ago that we thought we would never get rid of. 
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: fireghost239 on November 12, 2019, 07:31:41 AM
Getting a nice lake effect snow off the river in downtown Memphis. Side streets are white.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2019, 07:35:27 AM
Getting a nice lake effect snow off the river in downtown Memphis. Side streets are white.

Thereís actually fairly intense dbzís with that band. Enjoy the rarity!
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: dwagner88 on November 12, 2019, 07:44:31 AM
The first strikeout of the year comes early for Chattanooga! Honestly wasn't expecting anything, but I didn't even see a flake this morning. We had about 30 minutes of light sleet. That's it.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Susan on November 12, 2019, 08:06:17 AM
The models locked onto this cold front 8 days ago, then stayed consistent with a light snow forecast.  I am most excited over the accuracy of the forecasting.  Hopefully, it will stay this way.   ::applause::
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: joemomma on November 12, 2019, 08:31:33 AM
Probably a 1/2" (maybe more in spots) in north Cookeville on grass/elevated surfaces.  Nothing to speak of on the roads.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 12, 2019, 09:18:54 AM
I would say wet streets... with a rain/sleet and maybe snow mix by the time youíre making that drive, depending on when you land.

I bet slick patches develop later into the night, early morning hours.

So you know my area well. I landed at 10:30 and it was just start to change to solid mix at BNA. 32F at the airport, 30F by 440, and 29 by the time I got to 40 West by whitebridge. As soon as I got to the hill on OHB coming up it was starting to get a little slick. The hill between 70-100 there where my house is close to was just getting covered and I was sliding around enough to have to go into winter driving mode. So thank you for your comment, it was pretty spot on :)
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2019, 10:09:03 AM
We finished with a dusting on grassy surfaces in Fairview. Nothing special, but it's November and I'll take it!

The dry air aloft inhibited the heavy returns on the radar from reaching the ground here. Had that not been the case, we would have gotten an inch.
Title: Re: Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
Post by: Michael on November 12, 2019, 10:14:22 AM
Not bad. Models were as accurate as you could expect for East Tn Valley.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191112/b96ba0deb78a5a0114baa3d306cb20f8.jpg)


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