Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: cgauxknox on August 04, 2019, 11:31:09 AM

Title: Fall 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on August 04, 2019, 11:31:09 AM
Since we've already jumped into the winter forum I want to give us a chance to discuss the beautiful season that comes before  ::yum::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Crockett on August 04, 2019, 11:52:19 AM
When I think of fall, I think of crisp days with brilliant blue skies and a light breeze...apple cider and a smoker jam-packed with meats. It's been a while since we've had a true fall, wall to wall. Last year wasn't terrible once we got into the second half of October, but the first half of October was miserable and there were some warm stretches all the way through November. Obviously Fall 2017 was significantly warm, and Fall 2016 was almost miserably hot. Fall 2015 featured more above-average temperatures than not, and Fall 2014 had record-setting heat into the end of October.

We actually had a spring this year...hopefully we'll have a real fall as well.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on August 04, 2019, 11:56:45 AM
football, hay rides and fall severe makes my fall season ::guitar::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on August 04, 2019, 01:11:09 PM
Since we've already jumped into the winter forum I want to give us a chance to discuss the beautiful season that comes before  ::yum::
Ah yes . . . the best 2 weeks of the year.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on August 04, 2019, 01:17:22 PM
We actually had a spring this year...hopefully we'll have a real fall as well.
I have the same hopes.  I'd like a nice, long stretch of those great fall days where you need a jacket in the mornings and evenings but it's warm and sunny enough for just shirtsleeves during the day.  In terms of weather that's my favorite time of year, and when you add in college football, rich stews and homemade breads for dinner, and all the great color a real fall season makes for wonderful times leading into the holidays.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on August 04, 2019, 02:35:47 PM
Autumn has largely disappeared in the last decade.  It seems "fall" is now regulated to the first few weeks before Christmas. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 04, 2019, 03:17:47 PM
Autumn has largely disappeared in the last decade.  It seems "fall" is now regulated to the first few weeks before Christmas.
Maybe we can get a normal fall this year. We had a normal spring for the first time in forever.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on August 04, 2019, 04:15:15 PM
Here on the KY/TN border in the late 90s/early 00s our September Average High was 82F and October was 71 or 72F.

Now it is 85F/75F respectively.  Probably because of the switch from 1961-2000 and 1970-2010 data versus 1981-2010 data.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on August 04, 2019, 05:10:42 PM
Maybe we can get a normal fall this year. We had a normal spring for the first time in forever.

It would be awesome to have an October with highs in the 60's-70's and lows in the 40's for a change.  To me, that is fall in the Mid-south and Southern Apps.  Well, at least the fall I fondly remember. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on August 04, 2019, 06:15:24 PM
Here on the KY/TN border in the late 90s/early 00s our September Average High was 82F and October was 71 or 72F.

Now it is 85F/75F respectively.  Probably because of the switch from 1961-2000 and 1970-2010 data versus 1981-2010 data.
climate change ?...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on August 04, 2019, 06:56:10 PM
climate change ?...

Probably a mix of climate change, urban heat island effect (the area around Ft. Campbell where the measurements were taken has seen a lot of development),  and that we had some pretty cool years in the 60s and 70s.  Even versus the 90s our heat ridges seem to last a bit longer and have a bit more bite since the mid 2000s. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on August 05, 2019, 05:23:12 AM
Considering the strong heat ridges and record heat associated with them in Alaska and Europe, the lower 48 states have been fortunate this summer.  Our worst heat wave occurred in late May into June (outside of astronomical summer).  Even Texas has escaped the normal summer death ridge so far this year.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on August 14, 2019, 10:33:14 PM
The heat overall this summer hasn't been that bad. I say it's been cooler than the last few years as far as super hot days. Even on a lot of days when we have had a lot of humidity we have either had a breeze or plenty of clouds or both. The climate has been changing since the beginning of time, man don't know it's reason. We may be in for a cool down as much as we may be rising. Only God knows, man doesn't have a clue. Just my thoughts sorry for the rambling. Can't wait for fall and of course bring on winter. But for now, got to get all the grass cutting in I can. Need another rain soon here in Montgomery County, the western part of town has missed the last few rounds of weather. It's been a great year for mowing so far, need it to continue.  ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::rain::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on August 17, 2019, 04:57:27 PM
[attachimg=1]

September 2007-2018 has been warmer than the 1950-2007 average across 99% of the USA.   

September 2019 looks to be more of the same unless something tropical happens in the early to mid part of the month to change that.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Matthew on August 17, 2019, 09:17:31 PM
As long as fall break is perfect wx I will be happy.  To the beach then a soccer tournament in Pensacola.  🤞🏻
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on August 18, 2019, 08:55:03 AM
If I had to guess I would say we will probably be around +2.5 to +3 above the 1950-2007 average for September which is probably just a hair above the 1981-2010 average.   

One constant thing that is showing up in the long term and has been a thing for most of the summer is that most of the area (minus far East TN) has been in weakness between two ridges.  Which has allowed for cooler air to save us. Not as warm as 2018 or probably even 2007 but still warmer than average is the best call.

If we can at least have around an average October and November I would be okay with that.  November is actually the only month that has been solidly below average for our area this decade. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Crockett on August 19, 2019, 12:04:54 PM
I see the heat is taking a toll on us.  ::hot::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on August 19, 2019, 02:16:23 PM
Extended Euro looks decent for this time of year. Nice eastern trough should keep things reasonable.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on August 19, 2019, 04:19:25 PM
First ďbigĒ cool down with low temps well down into the 50ís making the horizon on the GFS as well. Although to be honest- we had mid 50ís several times in July. At least this is a sign the heat is peaking.

Last 90 days of temps in CDAS. That cold pool which has been present out west and in the plains is still there this summer.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190819/cb0914feb25a62774a52ce2dcaa6a2b1.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on August 20, 2019, 08:47:16 AM
Just a thought...can we actually discuss the actual weather pattern and leave the climate change opinions and banter for another thread?
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on August 20, 2019, 08:55:02 AM
Just a thought...can we actually discuss the actual weather pattern and leave the climate change opinions and banter for another thread?
agree ... think the pattern is just to boring to discuss at the moment... lol
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on August 20, 2019, 09:22:20 AM
agree ... think the pattern is just to boring to discuss at the moment... lol

Fall isnít actually here ďat the momentĒ. Itís a thread to discuss possible long range weather patterns as meteorological fall starts September 1.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on August 20, 2019, 09:32:09 AM
Just a thought...can we actually discuss the actual weather pattern and leave the climate change opinions and banter for another thread?

I wouldn't have a problem with that. But the banter was here, so I jumped into the discussion.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on August 20, 2019, 09:56:08 AM
I created a Climate Thread for the appropriate posts and moved them there.

Back to Fall 2019....
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 20, 2019, 05:05:07 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on August 20, 2019, 06:24:27 PM
(Attachment Link)
thats the problem ... getting that look at mid late August does us no good... outlook like that wonít be found in mid January book it...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 20, 2019, 06:43:47 PM
thats the problem ... getting that look at mid late August does us no good... outlook like that wonít be found in mid January book it...
While I agree that is a perfect look for winter, I could care less about January right now. My body feels like it is on fire everyday when I come in. I work outside everyday.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on August 20, 2019, 07:11:04 PM
While I agree that is a perfect look for winter, I could care less about January right now. My body feels like it is on fire everyday when I come in. I work outside everyday.
yeah agree... my job also outside least 95 percent time
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on August 21, 2019, 09:32:14 AM
My body feels like it is on fire everyday when I come in. I work outside everyday.

Ditto.

I'm in construction right now. These past two weeks have been awful.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: joemomma on August 21, 2019, 12:59:22 PM
Yup, being outside for any length of time is downright miserable.  I've lived here my whole life (40+ years) and never remember it being this miserable.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on August 21, 2019, 01:24:53 PM
As tough as it is outside during the day I am at least feeling those first hints that fall is coming.  Several of our evenings in Knoxville have been better than they are in the heart of summer and I'm noticing an occasional cool breeze even during the middle of the day.  It's still insanely hot most days, but those little teases of good weather are there if you watch for them. 

I also admit that it's very easy for me to say this as I earn a living at a desk, but I've been helping a friend build his house and have spent some long days working on his deck, or worse, doing work inside his still unpowered house with no A/C and no air moving at all.  Much respect to all of you that are out in this heat 40+ hours a week doing the work that keeps the world running for the rest of us.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: TNHunter on August 21, 2019, 01:25:54 PM
Maybe I am just crazy but I think it hasn't been that bad.  I don't know how this summer compares to past statistically but it has felt cooler than normal to me.  Haven't had any extensive heat outbreaks and plenty of moisture.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on August 21, 2019, 02:04:43 PM
Yup, being outside for any length of time is downright miserable.  I've lived here my whole life (40+ years) and never remember it being this miserable.

August 2007 was much worse IMO

But this stretch of heat is up there on the charts. I'm feeling the heat much more working construction at 22 than I was playing football in the heat at 10.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: joemomma on August 21, 2019, 02:19:44 PM
I was inside much more in '07 than I am now.  My new job requires a good bit of walking between buildings outside, and I'm certainly feeling it.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on August 21, 2019, 02:29:24 PM
Maybe I am just crazy but I think it hasn't been that bad.  I don't know how this summer compares to past statistically but it has felt cooler than normal to me.  Haven't had any extensive heat outbreaks and plenty of moisture.
guess we are just getting used to it...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on August 21, 2019, 03:22:07 PM
This Summer has been statistically normal. Nothing out of the ordinary. We normally have a week or 2 of peak heat which is where itís been. We havenít had a summer which I consider ridiculous in quite some time - with a steady stream of 100ís day after with no relief. The heat this year gets beat back about the time itís trying to get solid. Having numerous nights in June and July in the 50ís- including one morning in July where steam came off the pool like a Fall morning- there are no complaints from me. The colder temps this year as was all winter are just off to our northwest. Theyíve had record cold most of the year. Itís called balance.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on August 21, 2019, 06:44:38 PM
We have had a fairly steady round of heat the last few weeks.  SE TN even hit 100F.  With that being said August 2007 and Late July/August 2010 were much much worse.  I actually think 2010 may have even been worse than 2007 because the 2010 heatwave had high humidity and lows in the 80s for several days whereas the 2007 one was just really high temperatures for a really long time, like pretty much till the October 18th tornado outbreak that year stopped it.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on August 22, 2019, 10:52:27 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190822/8fbd384e51aee777f3823994577d7840.jpg)

Gfs 2m temps next weekend.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on August 22, 2019, 05:25:18 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190822/8fbd384e51aee777f3823994577d7840.jpg)

Gfs 2m temps next weekend.

That is a perfect way to start College Football Season.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on August 30, 2019, 04:33:56 PM
It appears weíre in for quite a stretch of dry weather as we head into the first week or meteorological fall.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 02, 2019, 05:58:17 PM
This first 7-10 days (at least) of meteorological fall looks like 90s and more 90s.

I used to get excited on Sept 1st because we could count on the first cool snap being just a couple of weeks away.  I donít really have that expectation anymore. I just assume itís probably going to be more or less hot into October.

Hears hoping we do get some sort of cool snap and taste of real fall this month.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 02, 2019, 06:51:06 PM
This first 7-10 days (at least) of meteorological fall looks like 90s and more 90s.

I used to get excited on Sept 1st because we could count on the first cool snap being just a couple of weeks away.  I donít really have that expectation anymore. I just assume itís probably going to be more or less hot into October.

Hears hoping we do get some sort of cool snap and taste of real fall this month.
yeah... back in my little boy days I can remember going to the local county fair first September...  better have you a pretty good jacket to during the night hours at least...  you can go in shorts and tank top... these days... lol
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Crockett on September 02, 2019, 07:42:57 PM
This first 7-10 days (at least) of meteorological fall looks like 90s and more 90s.

I used to get excited on Sept 1st because we could count on the first cool snap being just a couple of weeks away.  I donít really have that expectation anymore. I just assume itís probably going to be more or less hot into October.

Hears hoping we do get some sort of cool snap and taste of real fall this month.

Just a few days ago the GFS was consistently showing a sustained cool-down after the middle of this week. Now it looks like the heat will be back en force by Monday.  ::rant::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 02, 2019, 07:57:13 PM
Just a few days ago the GFS was consistently showing a sustained cool-down after the middle of this week. Now it looks like the heat will be back en force by Monday.  ::rant::

I wonder sometimes if the rules of weather patterns have changed, and the models work off the assumption of the old paradigm. The long range will try to sniff something out that is just no longer realistic in the new reality.

That may be crazy talk, but I really wonder.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 02, 2019, 08:06:55 PM
Just a few days ago the GFS was consistently showing a sustained cool-down after the middle of this week. Now it looks like the heat will be back en force by Monday.  ::rant::
thats the problem. It was the gfs showing it ... the euro never did... and continues to show much above average ..
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 03, 2019, 07:25:49 AM
Summer really lasts through September, on average, in our current reality. Last year, seemed most of Oct was a scorcher too.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 03, 2019, 08:39:13 AM
Summer really lasts through September, on average, in our current reality. Last year, seemed most of Oct was a scorcher too.

Could be worse. The CF6 for Nashville - September 1925 is  :o

Graphing the history of September CF6's out, it does seem there is less volatility nowadays. It would take something special for a September around here to mean out in the 60's again.

Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 03, 2019, 09:40:01 AM
Could be worse. The CF6 for Nashville - September 1925 is  :o

Graphing the history of September CF6's out, it does seem there is less volatility nowadays. It would take something special for a September around here to mean out in the 60's again.

Honestly it's not as bad as I thought. Where did you get the data, I'd like to play with it.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 03, 2019, 09:45:27 AM
Honestly it's not as bad as I thought. Where did you get the data, I'd like to play with it.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ohx (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ohx)
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 04, 2019, 04:19:04 AM
There is about a 2 maybe 3ish F change between September in the past 12-15ish years versus the total average.  The graph has a spread of 10 degrees so you don't see that trend quite as well.

With that being said this September does have work to do to get to 1925 status.  That month never featured a low below 60F and featured several 100+ days.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 04, 2019, 06:42:39 AM
The latest euro model guidance has us close to 100 next week couple s days at least ....
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 04, 2019, 06:59:32 AM
The latest euro model guidance has us close to 100 next week couple s days at least ....

Crazy how some of the hottest temps of 2019 may happen in September. At least you have shorter days and lower humidities to work with this time of year. Really, as long as the sun is set, it should feel good outside. Imagine if this was 1-2 months ago! Yikes.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 04, 2019, 07:29:29 AM
Crazy how some of the hottest temps of 2019 may happen in September. At least you have shorter days and lower humidities to work with this time of year. Really, as long as the sun is set, it should feel good outside. Imagine if this was 1-2 months ago! Yikes.
I could see temps nearing 100 for 2 to 3 days.... and with NO heat advisories too. Humidity should be low enough to offset the temps. In fact thatís what will contribute to higher temps during the day and a decent cool off at night.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Coach B on September 04, 2019, 07:33:38 AM
At least you have shorter days and lower humidities to work with this time of year. Really, as long as the sun is set, it should feel good outside.

Exactly! Its been very pleasant outside in the mornings and evenings the last few days. I've been able to get some things done without even breaking a sweat. Sure its hot in the afternoons, but you can feel the change on the way.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on September 04, 2019, 11:15:49 AM
This is a painfully boring weather pattern. We seem likely to go three full weeks with zero precip. At least it isnít sticky. Iíll take 96 and dry over 90 and humid any day.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 04, 2019, 11:51:35 AM
This is a painfully boring weather pattern. We seem likely to go three full weeks with zero precip. At least it isnít sticky. Iíll take 96 and dry over 90 and humid any day.
going take a fairly strong front coming through or a gulf system coming up. To break this pattern... not seeing either

Post Merge: September 04, 2019, 12:27:01 PM
going take a fairly strong front coming through or a gulf system coming up. To break this pattern... not seeing either
be honest... we been in a painful boring weather pattern for last few years seems... weather around here has become like watching paint dry....
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 04, 2019, 04:56:22 PM
I'd give anything for a gray, windy, drizzly 60 degree fall day about now. Soon.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 04, 2019, 04:57:39 PM
Crazy how some of the hottest temps of 2019 may happen in September. At least you have shorter days and lower humidities to work with this time of year. Really, as long as the sun is set, it should feel good outside. Imagine if this was 1-2 months ago! Yikes.

The hottest temperature of 2018 occurred in September as well.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 04, 2019, 06:54:28 PM
Might be better next week but heat index is currently 103 . We topped out at 107.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 05, 2019, 08:18:49 AM
I was so focused on the hurricane coverage and the fact it was so hot here in previous days that I missed the fact that we apparently had a frontal passage since yesterday. I detected a pleasant cool note to the breeze this morning that I wasn't expecting, and it appears the high today is forecast at 85.

Looks like it's going to get hot again next week though.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 05, 2019, 05:25:22 PM
The hottest temperature in 2019 has been 95F in the Hopkinsville/Clarksville area.  I like for that to be topped especially on Tuesday.  Probably looking at 97-98F if I had to guess and the 2nd year in the row where the hottest temperature of the year occurred in September.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: memphishogfan on September 05, 2019, 07:52:06 PM
I know a ton of farmers who are thankful for some dry hot weather right now.  Corn is drying out and being harvested right now as well as rice. Soybeans and cotton should start within the next week to 10 days.

After the trouble of last fall and small margins this year those guys could use all the dry weather they can get.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 05, 2019, 08:45:27 PM
If it wasn't for 1925 then this September would probably be one of the hottest on record.  The pattern looks very May 2018ish with a conjoined Sonora/Bermuda ridge and it will probably take a typhoon from the Pacific, a tropical storm from the Atlantic, or a potentially nasty severe/tornado outbreak across our region and up to the Midwest to break it.   

I don't think we will see that quite yet but October and November may feature one or more of those items that could break this ridge. 

Then the million dollar question becomes does it return in the winter months. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 05, 2019, 09:45:29 PM
If it wasn't for 1925 then this September would probably be one of the hottest on record.  The pattern looks very May 2018ish with a conjoined Sonora/Bermuda ridge and it will probably take a typhoon from the Pacific, a tropical storm from the Atlantic, or a potentially nasty severe/tornado outbreak across our region and up to the Midwest to break it.   

I don't think we will see that quite yet but October and November may feature one or more of those items that could break this ridge. 

Then the million dollar question becomes does it return in the winter months.
drum roll please.....
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 06, 2019, 07:04:18 AM
If it wasn't for 1925 then this September would probably be one of the hottest on record.  The pattern looks very May 2018ish with a conjoined Sonora/Bermuda ridge and it will probably take a typhoon from the Pacific, a tropical storm from the Atlantic, or a potentially nasty severe/tornado outbreak across our region and up to the Midwest to break it.   

I don't think we will see that quite yet but October and November may feature one or more of those items that could break this ridge. 

Then the million dollar question becomes does it return in the winter months.

I'm willing to put my $ on fall arriving late October/early November, Indian summer leading into Thanksgiving, a brief cool week in December to tease us, and then  ::blowtorch:: until late March when our snow window has closed.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 06, 2019, 07:22:41 AM
I'm willing to put my $ on fall arriving late October/early November, Indian summer leading into Thanksgiving, a brief cool week in December to tease us, and then  ::blowtorch:: until late March when our snow window has closed.

Someone is jaded.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 06, 2019, 07:29:15 AM
Someone is jaded skeptically salty.

Guilty as charged. Wouldn't blame anyone given how last winter turned out.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 06, 2019, 08:13:09 AM
Guilty as charged. Wouldn't blame anyone given how last winter turned out.

At least you had a nice snow chase early in the winter last year (I think that was you).

Iím one of the jaded ones too.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/ba/Jade_pendant.jpg/220px-Jade_pendant.jpg)

I just assume coolish to mild during the winter.... maybe a couple of cold dry days. The normal long range teases will fizzle per usual, and maybe weíll pull for a clipper or ULL that drops a dusting across the state line.

Iím always open to being turned around by a trend away from what weíve seen... but we shall see.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 06, 2019, 08:24:22 AM
Someone is jaded.

Lol I immediately thought of Aerosmith when I read his post.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 06, 2019, 08:33:23 AM
Someone is jaded.
who wouldnít be
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Charles L. on September 06, 2019, 02:05:59 PM
Iíve been outside a total of 10 minutes today and hated every minute of it. I canít wait for the 50s and 60s and tracking hour 384 snowstorms.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 06, 2019, 03:45:32 PM
Iíve been outside a total of 10 minutes today and hated every minute of it. I canít wait for the 50s and 60s and tracking hour 384 snowstorms.

 Meh 90ís in September is normal. 90ís in early October pisses me off.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 06, 2019, 05:49:06 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190906/b810d4b88749b9e738fb112afc340ee8.jpg)

Nice comparison of Septemberís in Tennessee pre 1940. There are some really warm years in the data set in the 20ís and 30ís.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 06, 2019, 06:05:05 PM
Really surprised to see so many years with 100+ temps during that time period.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 06, 2019, 07:49:46 PM
The problem recently we have been having is that it is extending into at least the first 1/3rd of October as well.

I could tolerate a hot September but October is unacceptable.   

Also, I wonder if a lot of those years were drought years and therefore prone to intense temperature rises. Especially when you look at the lows (unless that is factoring in the Smoky Mountains) but I don't recall the last time I saw a sub-40 low in September.  Drought years typically are prone to lower lows and higher highs just like an arid or semiarid climate.  In a relatively wet year like 2019, I feel like we shouldn't be quite this warm.   

Post Merge: September 06, 2019, 07:52:37 PM
The telecommunication combo predicted in the next week or two of + PNA, slightly +NAO, and -AO wouldn't be that bad in the wintertime especially if other factors are at least neutral to favorable. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 06, 2019, 08:09:23 PM
The problem recently we have been having is that it is extending into at least the first 1/3rd of October as well.

I could tolerate a hot September but October is unacceptable.   

Also, I wonder if a lot of those years were drought years and therefore prone to intense temperature rises. Especially when you look at the lows (unless that is factoring in the Smoky Mountains) but I don't recall the last time I saw a sub-40 low in September.  Drought years typically are prone to lower lows and higher highs just like an arid or semiarid climate.  In a relatively wet year like 2019, I feel like we shouldn't be quite this warm.   

Post Merge: September 06, 2019, 07:52:37 PM
The telecommunication combo predicted in the next week or two of + PNA, slightly +NAO, and -AO wouldn't be that bad in the wintertime especially if other factors are at least neutral to favorable.
exactly what I was going bring up... these 90s r slowly getting extended in part October ... before you know it ... we will be flirting with the 90 mark in November ......
Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 06, 2019, 08:16:24 PM
The problem recently we have been having is that it is extending into at least the first 1/3rd of October as well.

I could tolerate a hot September but October is unacceptable.   

Also, I wonder if a lot of those years were drought years and therefore prone to intense temperature rises. Especially when you look at the lows (unless that is factoring in the Smoky Mountains) but I don't recall the last time I saw a sub-40 low in September.  Drought years typically are prone to lower lows and higher highs just like an arid or semiarid climate.  In a relatively wet year like 2019, I feel like we shouldn't be quite this warm.   

Post Merge: September 06, 2019, 02:52:37 PM
The telecommunication combo predicted in the next week or two of + PNA, slightly +NAO, and -AO wouldn't be that bad in the wintertime especially if other factors are at least neutral to favorable.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190907/910b8a3bd728c9641220b5c929913f55.jpg)

Looks like some 90ís pre 1940 wasnít all that uncommon.

For the last 15 years, low 90ís occur 1 in 3 years. The latest 90 degree day I could find off Bartlettís station (Memphis Weather Net) was October 15, 2015. There are no 90 degree days in the last 15 days of October for the last 15 years at Bartlett. November has never recorded a 90 degree day in Tennessee since records began in 1885- it did hit 87 in 1916.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 06, 2019, 09:05:16 PM
Look at the lows in October with quite a few years having a trace or more of snowfall.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 06, 2019, 09:11:22 PM
Look at the lows in October with quite a few years having a trace or more of snowfall.

The biggest October snow event did occur in 1925, the same year that featured that horrid even by today's standards September heat wave.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Matthew on September 08, 2019, 05:39:39 PM
We are needing some serious rain.  Bad time to go dry when leaves are falling and trying to get ready for winter. Dry and leaves is not a good thing together.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 08, 2019, 06:00:25 PM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Mega North America Ridge.

Do notice the analogs.  2009, 2004, and 2005 appear 7 out of 10 times.  That is quite impressive.   

People remember 2009-10, but they forget that Fall 2009 was very warm and with the latest freeze on record for Middle TN.  That is not to say that our winter will be like 2009-10.  In matter of fact if you had to choose one especially from an ENSO standpoint then one would choose 2005.   

If that is the case then we could be set for a few tropical threats plus an epic and potentially dangerous fall severe weather season that could last into the winter months especially from the Mid-South up towards the Great Lakes region.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on September 08, 2019, 09:34:21 PM
exactly what I was going bring up... these 90s r slowly getting extended in part October ... before you know it ... we will be flirting with the 90 mark in November ......

We had high 80s in early November in 2016.

Summer just keeps getting longer and longer.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 09, 2019, 08:14:25 AM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Mega North America Ridge.

Do notice the analogs.  2009, 2004, and 2005 appear 7 out of 10 times.  That is quite impressive.   

People remember 2009-10, but they forget that Fall 2009 was very warm and with the latest freeze on record for Middle TN.  That is not to say that our winter will be like 2009-10.  In matter of fact if you had to choose one especially from an ENSO standpoint then one would choose 2005.   

If that is the case then we could be set for a few tropical threats plus an epic and potentially dangerous fall severe weather season that could last into the winter months especially from the Mid-South up towards the Great Lakes region.   

September/October 2010 was already pretty warm. I think we all know how the following winter/spring went.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Crockett on September 09, 2019, 01:17:16 PM
There have been two partial interstate closures in recent days due to small wildfires in the greater Knoxville area...the first on I-75 in Anderson County on Saturday, and now one on I-40 in Knoxville today.

We could be setting ourselves up for another wild wildfire season if this pattern doesn't break.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 10, 2019, 06:53:48 PM
Have not had time to dig very deep but the GFS has big changes in about 10 days. It also has a system coming out of the gulf that parks over Tennessee on Monday.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: NismoWx on September 10, 2019, 07:43:41 PM
Very grateful for the rain in Rutherford County right now!! My yard was beginning to crunch under foot.

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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on September 11, 2019, 09:01:53 AM
Very grateful for the rain in Rutherford County right now!! My yard was beginning to crunch under foot.

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Same. Got a great storm around 9:45 last night with high winds and around an inch of rain. That was the first rain in over 3 weeks here.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 11, 2019, 09:04:33 AM
Looks like the end of prolonged 90ís is in sight. Back half of September looks to finally shift a trough into the eastern 2/3rds- but not before a hurricane makes a run at the gulf or east coast.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 11, 2019, 10:50:09 AM
Yes- some of the longer-range forecasts show high temps finally dropping out of the 90s just about in time for astronomical fall in about 10 days. Looks like we're going to have to bake a little while longer before that though, but at least we can look forward to it.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 11, 2019, 11:10:23 AM
Yes- some of the longer-range forecasts show high temps finally dropping out of the 90s just about in time for astronomical fall in about 10 days. Looks like we're going to have to bake a little while longer before that though, but at least we can look forward to it.
yeah... high temps look to go from mid 90s to upper 80s ... Little bit helps...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 11, 2019, 11:17:52 AM
Bring on chilly evenings, chili, bonfires, s'mores, and wiener roasts... I'm ready!
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 11, 2019, 03:12:23 PM
yeah... high temps look to go from mid 90s to upper 80s ... Little bit helps...

Could be low to mid 80's for some depending on tropical cloud cover.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Crockett on September 11, 2019, 06:55:49 PM
(http://bengarrett.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/69809400_10157841849773258_8871841771269652480_o.jpg)

As hot as it was today, can you imagine doing this? This guy's name is Trinity Smith. He's an avid runner, and every 9/11 since 2002 he's spent the day running with the American flag in honor of the 9/11 victims. The last few years, he's been doing it in full turn-out gear. But it's not usually as hot as it was today. He doesn't run non-stop; he takes breaks, but he runs most of the day. I talked to him just a minute ago and he has no idea how many miles he's run (he looks like he's about to collapse), but another marathon runner who was running with him had completed 29 miles by mid-afternoon. So, it's easily in excess of 30 miles.

He's my age; we went to school together...which is to say that he's no spring chicken. I don't know how he does it.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 12, 2019, 08:46:54 AM
And the new euro weeklies are out...  get used to much above normal temps through October ...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: ryandourius on September 12, 2019, 09:10:01 AM
And the new euro weeklies are out...  get used to much above normal temps through October ...

When will it end?  ::blowtorch::  ::hot::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Beth on September 12, 2019, 10:35:12 AM
When will it end?  ::blowtorch::  ::hot::
I am glad! Heading to Orange beach for fall break the first of October. Hope the Hurricanes stay away!
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 12, 2019, 12:06:44 PM
I am glad! Heading to Orange beach for fall break the first of October. Hope the Hurricanes stay away!

While I can't say I'm glad, my thought is...pick a lane, fall. Either come now or come with a vengeance in November.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: bugalou on September 12, 2019, 05:12:34 PM
And the new euro weeklies are out...  get used to much above normal temps through October ...

Better in October than July.  Considering the mild and wet (until recently) summer we have had, I can deal with an above normal October and November.  Then let thinks tank for winter.  :) ::snowman::
Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 12, 2019, 08:07:40 PM
We havenít had a drop of rain since August 27th. 8/10 of the driest months on record at Memphis are either September or October.

If the month ended today, it would be the warmest September on record. Will have to see how the cool down evolves. I think itís fair to say it a rival for the Top Ten warmest and driest September at Memphis. UHI aside, looking at Bartlett station, itís still #2 - for now anyways. The cool down will put a dent in it- just depends on when and how cool in the last half of the month.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 13, 2019, 07:16:32 AM
This fall be like UT football. Maybe good times arrive at some point, but not anytime soon.

Current anthem until even the appearance of hope emerges: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU9JoFKlaZ0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU9JoFKlaZ0)

*Sigh* I just want to wear a windbreaker again.  ;)
Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 13, 2019, 04:06:29 PM
Good comparison of Euro weekly forecast to reality:

Euro Weekly Forecast 2m Temps from 6 weeks ago:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190913/9a97ab5ece95d7eb99b63d7e6078f4bd.jpg)


Reality for the forecasted week:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190913/2abd5d69f7fa032839916d0bbf27e705.jpg)

As good as the forecast was for the Southeast it sucked for the Northern Plains.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 14, 2019, 07:24:16 AM
I think the previously advertised cooldown has largely been lost in the long range. Maybe we drop below 90 for highs during the last few days of the month? Maybe?

Based on trends, I think outdoor pools can stay open a month longer compared to the past. October could be the new September... letís hope for some actual fall weather then.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 14, 2019, 07:42:09 AM
I would say we are looking at 90s or at least upper 80's on a consistent basis till at least October 10th with little to no rain, which may negatively impact the quality of our fall colors when they change in Late October/November. You need either a tropical system, recurving typoon, or a strong powerhouse low pressure system that would probably give us a tornado outbreak (see November 2002 and October 2007).   

The question will become do we change 1925 or 2018 when we went more winter like and skip fall, do we change 2007 like when we at least went to around average, or do we change 2016 like when we cool off but we still deal with the 70s and 80s for the remainder of fall and even into the winter months.

I am leaning towards the 2007 situation at this time.
Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 14, 2019, 08:36:07 AM
I would say we are looking at 90s or at least upper 80's on a consistent basis till at least October 10th with little to no rain...

I really hope youíre wrong about that... but, Iím afraid you may be right.

If the region gets locked into a warm dry fall, one begins to think about the specter of 2016. Itís not likely to play into the same setup hopefully. The Eastern US just has to be as vigilant about forest fires as they are in the west.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2019, 09:24:38 AM
I would say we are looking at 90s or at least upper 80's on a consistent basis till at least October 10th with little to no rain, which may negatively impact the quality of our fall colors when they change in Late October/November. You need either a tropical system, recurving typoon, or a strong powerhouse low pressure system that would probably give us a tornado outbreak (see November 2002 and October 2007).   

The question will become do we change 1925 or 2018 when we went more winter like and skip fall, do we change 2007 like when we at least went to around average, or do we change 2016 like when we cool off but we still deal with the 70s and 80s for the remainder of fall and even into the winter months.

I am leaning towards the 2007 situation at this time.
per long range models... this pattern not going away appears... keeping my pool open
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 14, 2019, 10:09:12 AM
My latest Fall Outlook takes into consideration the May/June 2018 like setup of the pattern meaning that a major something has to happen to break it.  Also that we are going from a El Nino to either a cool Neutral to weak Nina episode which typically favors ridging over our region.

My outlook is essentially a mix of 2007 and 2016 with a bit more of a 2007 lean.   

I do expect severe weather/tornado chances to start maybe in the 2nd half of October across the Midwest over to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes and extending to the South in November. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2019, 10:50:59 AM
My latest Fall Outlook takes into consideration the May/June 2018 like setup of the pattern meaning that a major something has to happen to break it.  Also that we are going from a El Nino to either a cool Neutral to weak Nina episode which typically favors ridging over our region.

My outlook is essentially a mix of 2007 and 2016 with a bit more of a 2007 lean.   

I do expect severe weather/tornado chances to start maybe in the 2nd half of October across the Midwest over to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes and extending to the South in November.
still learning a lot on enso stuff ... but reading a lot over American wx.  Some say weíre Pratically in a NiŮa state now
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2019, 11:52:13 AM
My latest Fall Outlook takes into consideration the May/June 2018 like setup of the pattern meaning that a major something has to happen to break it.  Also that we are going from a El Nino to either a cool Neutral to weak Nina episode which typically favors ridging over our region.

My outlook is essentially a mix of 2007 and 2016 with a bit more of a 2007 lean.   

I do expect severe weather/tornado chances to start maybe in the 2nd half of October across the Midwest over to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes and extending to the South in November.


Looking at current state of ENSO and where itís most likely going from CPC site...

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190914/c28cd74adaa9c1a6598e81c1ab7276f6.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190914/cf4e2917406348d60cff9e7f8c53f6ae.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190914/93f35bdd5b32cf1cdace4d8cdcd951c0.jpg)

Right now ENSO region 3.4(which is where official ENSO events are declared) is neutral with a warm west and cool east. The SOI is crashing at the moment so that will most likely keep any further cooling at bay- almost eliminating any chance of an official Nina. I think we stay neutral through winter at this point.

SST are almost identical to 2013 at this point- which also had an anomalous warm pool in the NE Pacific. Looking at fall 2013, it was also warm and dry in September with prolonged 90ís late into the month. October and November trended normal. December turned cold and dry - with a winter weather threat early. The St Jude Marathon was cancelled due to ice and temps in the mid teens.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 14, 2019, 04:52:38 PM
I can see a bit of a 2013-14 comparison especially mixed with a 2017-18.  Both look to feature a +PNA and a +NAO.  Less than impressive 1952-53, 2005-06, and yes even the dreaded 2016-17 are also possibilities.   

We can win in a +PNA/+NAO pattern but you have to get that EPO ridge and you cannot have a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska area or else we will have a Nationwide USA and Canadian torch similar to Jan 2006 or times during the 2016-17 winter.     

Post Merge: September 14, 2019, 05:01:21 PM
The Gulf of Alaska low is a big reason why we are having the heat we have been having and are expected to have till at least early October. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 14, 2019, 08:06:44 PM
I can see a bit of a 2013-14 comparison especially mixed with a 2017-18.  Both look to feature a +PNA and a +NAO.  Less than impressive 1952-53, 2005-06, and yes even the dreaded 2016-17 are also possibilities.   

We can win in a +PNA/+NAO pattern but you have to get that EPO ridge and you cannot have a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska area or else we will have a Nationwide USA and Canadian torch similar to Jan 2006 or times during the 2016-17 winter.     

Post Merge: September 14, 2019, 05:01:21 PM
The Gulf of Alaska low is a big reason why we are having the heat we have been having and are expected to have till at least early October.

Yikes.  :( If we're repeating 2016-17, there won't be anything worth talking about for quite a while.

Edit: It would be interesting to read threads from fall 2007-08. I imagine many on here would have thought that fall couldn't get any worse...but here we are hoping the next 6 months turn out more like 2007-08 than some of the more recent alternatives.

Edit 2: CB hinted at doing research on hot Septembers vs. subsequent winters. Is there really any correlation to be found there?
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: TNHunter on September 15, 2019, 10:52:21 AM
This is purely a guess but I bet there is a correlation between HOT falls and big switches to cold winters. Most of this is based purely on my experience duck hunting. Dry/hot falls typically usher in cold winters with lots of fronts and weather which equals lots of ducks for us on the west side of the state. Have had some great seasons after a dry and warm fall.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 15, 2019, 11:41:18 AM
Sept 1925 leads to an average to slightly above-average winter.

Sept 2009, 2010, and 2013 leads to below average winters.

Sept 2007 and 2008 leads to a slightly above average winter

Sept 2015, 2016, and 2018 leads to a blowtorch winter 

Mixed results but it should be noted that our last 3 warm Septembers led to warm winters.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 15, 2019, 04:48:05 PM
Sept 1925 leads to an average to slightly above-average winter.

Sept 2009, 2010, and 2013 leads to below average winters.

Sept 2007 and 2008 leads to a slightly above average winter

Sept 2015, 2016, and 2018 leads to a blowtorch winter 

Mixed results but it should be noted that our last 3 warm Septembers led to warm winters.   

Quite the spread. I guess part of the counter is 2015 and 2016 were heavily influenced by the same record NiŮo and this version looks to be significantly weaker. Also, in fewer mathematical words, we're due.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: wfrogge on September 15, 2019, 05:14:18 PM
Quite the spread. I guess part of the counter is 2015 and 2016 were heavily influenced by the same record NiŮo and this version looks to be significantly weaker. Also, in fewer mathematical words, we're due.

Note: If any of you are issuing winter weather forecasts the new few months, I suggest going  ::blowtorch:: for February until we buck this awful trend we've been in. December/January are open season, but February...I'll believe it when I see it.

My winter outlook says first state wide snow/ice event the second week of Jan. First state wide severe outbreak of 2020 will be the first week of Feb.

TLDR:  This winter is going to be a warm/wild ride
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: NismoWx on September 15, 2019, 06:42:55 PM
So what would it take to shift the ridge at this point? Honest question.

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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 15, 2019, 09:44:00 PM
So what would it take to shift the ridge at this point? Honest question.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
a serious potent system .... pattern changer it would lead to ... as it been discussed... before by Steven
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 16, 2019, 07:36:20 AM
Big ridges have been blowing up around the globe this summer. See France heat wave but also see the other side which was parts of Russia seeing record cool summer temps.

Was hoping we would dodge the bullet, but we didn't. Ohh well, it will break down soon and we can enjoy fall.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Matthew on September 16, 2019, 09:17:12 AM
I blew leaves yesterday.  Amazing how many have fallen already.  Soooo freaking dry.  Trees are not even gonna have colors.  Just brown and fall.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 16, 2019, 12:45:46 PM
I propose a new name for this month...

Secondaugust
or Septaugust

The leaves are dropping and the days may be getting shorter... but thereís really nothing resembling traditional fall weather to be seen.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on September 16, 2019, 12:55:10 PM
I blew leaves yesterday.  Amazing how many have fallen already.  Soooo freaking dry.  Trees are not even gonna have colors.  Just brown and fall.

The leaves are secondary- it might hit 100 today in the second half of September. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 16, 2019, 01:35:46 PM
this pattern is relentless....
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on September 16, 2019, 01:47:10 PM
this pattern is relentless....
Oh yeah, thanks to everyone who complained about "all the rain" earlier this summer.

Two things you never complain about around here:  1)rain in the summer 2)cold at any time of year.



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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Crockett on September 16, 2019, 02:55:27 PM
Y'all know that our weather is 5-7 degrees cooler here on the plateau on most days than the rest of the state. And NWS records only date back to 1960, so it's a very limited dataset that we have here, unfortunately.

But just for fun, I ran the data today, after we hit 90 degrees for the sixth time this month.

In 38 years prior to 1998, we had only 1 September with more than 5 days at 90+ degrees, only 3 Septembers with more than 3 days at 90+ degrees, and only 5 Septembers with more than 1 day at 90+ degrees. In the 21 years beginning 1998, we have had 5 Septembers with more than 5 days at 90+ degrees, 8 Septembers with more than 3 days at 90+ degrees, and 10 Septembers with more than 1 day at 90+ degrees.

Our disappearing autumn.  :(
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: joemomma on September 16, 2019, 03:19:05 PM
It almost seems as if the "seasons" have shifted a month or two forward.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on September 16, 2019, 04:08:37 PM
It almost seems as if the "seasons" have shifted a month or two forward.
Something I've thought about several times in recent years

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Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 16, 2019, 04:32:07 PM
Looks like Memphis hit 100 or slightly over for the first time in 4 years. Saving grace is mixing out of dew points around 60 with no heat index issue and longer nights so temps can drop 30 degrees or more. Itís more like the Texas pandhandle than Mid South.

Despite no rainfall in 3 weeks, we arenít even in a D0 drought.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 16, 2019, 04:49:05 PM
98F up to where IL/IN/KY meet today.

Post Merge: September 16, 2019, 05:16:44 PM
The pattern heading into October can be best described as a hot steaming pile of garbage.  Troughing off the coast of Alaska extending into the Pacific NW, Strong Heights over our area and to our east and a developing mini-drought all spell one thing.  Pumpkin Torch Latte Time.  One of the CDC analogs is Early October 2007 which saw Princeton, KY reach 98F setting the all time October record for the state of Kentucky and sending 90+F into the Great Lakes and Northeast breakng all time heat records.   

 ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 16, 2019, 07:33:35 PM
98F up to where IL/IN/KY meet today.

Post Merge: September 16, 2019, 05:16:44 PM
The pattern heading into October can be best described as a hot steaming pile of garbage.  Troughing off the coast of Alaska extending into the Pacific NW, Strong Heights over our area and to our east and a developing mini-drought all spell one thing.  Pumpkin Torch Latte Time.  One of the CDC analogs is Early October 2007 which saw Princeton, KY reach 98F setting the all time October record for the state of Kentucky and sending 90+F into the Great Lakes and Northeast breakng all time heat records.   

 ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch::

Better now than July/early August/heart of winter I guess...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: TNHunter on September 16, 2019, 08:28:17 PM
It almost seems as if the "seasons" have shifted a month or two forward.

I think this is it exactly.  I think we all need to re-train our brains from what used to be. Can pretty much bank of September and early October being summer like and late March and April being winter like. My observations anyway. This can be seen with migratory birds for sure. Might possibly get a decent push of ducks before thanksgiving if lucky, but then the big pushes show up early to mid February when the season is over.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: NismoWx on September 16, 2019, 09:06:15 PM
I think this is it exactly.  I think we all need to re-train our brains from what used to be. Can pretty much bank of September and early October being summer like and late March and April being winter like. My observations anyway. This can be seen with migratory birds for sure. Might possibly get a decent push of ducks before thanksgiving if lucky, but then the big pushes show up early to mid February when the season is over.
Definitely doesn't feel like deer season when it's 90+ either.

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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: TNHunter on September 16, 2019, 09:11:59 PM
Definitely doesn't feel like deer season when it's 90+ either.

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Right....I remember just 8-10 years ago the last few days of September and first few of October marked a nice cool spell that kicked off bow season.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on September 16, 2019, 09:33:43 PM
Looks like Memphis hit 100 or slightly over for the first time in 4 years. Saving grace is mixing out of dew points around 60 with no heat index issue and longer nights so temps can drop 30 degrees or more. Itís more like the Texas pandhandle than Mid South.

Despite no rainfall in 3 weeks, we arenít even in a D0 drought.
Memphis hits 100 for the first time in 4 years--on September 16th, no less.

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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on September 16, 2019, 09:37:07 PM
I think this is it exactly.  I think we all need to re-train our brains from what used to be. Can pretty much bank of September and early October being summer like and late March and April being winter like. My observations anyway. This can be seen with migratory birds for sure. Might possibly get a decent push of ducks before thanksgiving if lucky, but then the big pushes show up early to mid February when the season is over.
The only thing that keeps me from saying that this has happened is I know of no reason this would have happened.

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Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 16, 2019, 10:37:57 PM
Memphis hits 100 for the first time in 4 years--on September 16th, no less.

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Keep in mind, September 2010 was every bit as hot with 100 occurring on the 20th at Memphis (latest on record)and near 100 through the 25th. Weíve been here before.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on September 17, 2019, 01:07:29 AM
Keep in mind, September 2010 was every bit as hot with 100 occurring on the 20th at Memphis (latest on record)and near 100 through the 25th. Weíve been here before.
Then, came the winter of 2011- which was quite good.

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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 17, 2019, 04:06:48 AM
Keep in mind, September 2010 was every bit as hot with 100 occurring on the 20th at Memphis (latest on record)and near 100 through the 25th. Weíve been here before.
just think this time going further out on the heat lasting deep into October... biggest problem no is the lack of rain... its getting pretty serious , none in sight either... light a match on the grass... it burn just like hay...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 17, 2019, 08:14:44 AM
Good read from Joe DíAleo on MJO influence in fall where it starts to become influential again outside the summer months. A September and October Phase 8/1 are really warm across the central and eastern US- which is exactly where we are now. Most reliable MJO models have it in 8/1 for another 15 days- meaning above normal. I think Memphis records itís warmest September on record- and possibly its driest.

Sluggish as the MJO is currently- once it moves to phase 2 there should be an abrupt pattern change. Phase 2 / 3 is the coldest phase for September and October.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Coach B on September 17, 2019, 08:15:07 AM
https://twitter.com/NWSNashville/status/1173946952989519872

According to the Nashville NWS this is the second warmest start to September on record. However, what I found interesting was that most of those in the top ten are waaaay on back there in the records.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 17, 2019, 08:27:03 AM
The extended 0zrun last nite euro... just plain ugly as you can get ...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: TNHunter on September 17, 2019, 08:38:57 AM
The way I look at it, is mother nature always balances herself out in the end.  She is doing it now with the dry and hot balancing out wet and moderate summer we had here.  Maybe she will balance this phase out with cold and snow this winter lol.  ::fingerscrossed::

I have found the best way to handle this heat is go to the lake and enjoy it while it lasts.  We'll be complaining about cold drizzly 35 degree days soon enough!
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 17, 2019, 08:39:38 AM
If we can get into a week NiŮa. Which is quite possible by winter ... maybe we start seeing 84 85 winter pop up as top analog ... it was 70s through part December even ... then after New Years ... we all knew what happened then. I take a repeat ...lol

Post Merge: September 17, 2019, 08:40:35 AM
The way I look at it, is mother nature always balances herself out in the end.  She is doing it now with the dry and hot balancing out wet and moderate summer we had here.  Maybe she will balance this phase out with cold and snow this winter lol.  ::fingerscrossed::

I have found the best way to handle this heat is go to the lake and enjoy it while it lasts.  We'll be complaining about cold drizzly 35 degree days soon enough!
yeah. In late March into April ...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 17, 2019, 08:53:03 AM
When mother nature gives you summer in fall, you extend swim season. My kids are loving extra summer.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 17, 2019, 08:55:51 AM
When mother nature gives you summer in fall, you extend swim season. My kids are loving extra summer.

One of the few 'bright' spots. That and not having to mow as often, but that's mainly a precip issue. Spot mowing FTW!
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 17, 2019, 10:22:32 AM
While this weather sucks for September, it has nothing on 1980.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: NashRugger on September 17, 2019, 10:22:58 AM
I'd expect a massive expansion in the "abnormally dry" and "moderate drought" colors in most of TN, especially middle TN. I can tell you that much of NW Rutherford into SW Wilson County is about as dry and crispy as I'd seen in some time.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 17, 2019, 10:48:28 AM
While this weather sucks for September, it has nothing on 1980.

How so? At least speaking for BNA, 1980 and 2019 have similar temps through the 17th. Fall really came in with a force on the 24th that year. Some 90 degree days in October, but overall I'd rather take 1980 than 2019.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 17, 2019, 10:51:43 AM
How so? At least speaking for BNA, 1980 and 2019 have similar temps through the 17th. Fall really came in with a force on the 24th that year. Some 90 degree days in October, but overall I'd rather take 1980 than 2019.
The average high temp for the first 16 days of September 1980 was 98 degrees. Several days 100 +

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 17, 2019, 11:13:13 AM
On a side note, this graphic is pretty interesting...

(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XJLBCrV5M2U/XTO6XtFadsI/AAAAAAAAAVE/BADnrj3ym5EFwOB7sOUhPHWvnPoWGaXZACLcBGAs/s1600/Decade+In+Which+Each+U.S.+State+Initially+Set+Its+Hottest+Temperature.PNG)

I don't understand what is meant by "initially" recorded its hottest temperature. Maybe someone can help... I'm not sure what that map is really telling us. So, TN "initially recorded its hottest temperature" in the 1920s, I guess- but, what does that mean? There have been hotter temperatures since then. I know, for example, that Nashville's all time hottest was in the 1950s for a long time. But, then the all time highest record fell in 2012, I think it was.

It makes sense that the Plains states had record temperatures in the 1930s, during the Dust Bowl. But, it still isn't clear to me what statistic that map is really showing us.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 17, 2019, 11:31:45 AM
When mother nature gives you summer in fall, you extend swim season. My kids are loving extra summer.
yeah. Just maybe this year your family can enjoy turkey and dressing on the deck by the pool this year ... pretty amazing if we can do that ...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: bugalou on September 17, 2019, 03:06:20 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/iB8zy9A.jpg)

Dear God,

Make it stop.

Best Regards,
-bugalou
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on September 17, 2019, 03:27:04 PM
When is this f*cking heat going to F*CKING end????

There's no relief in sight anywhere in any forecast!
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 17, 2019, 06:49:33 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/iB8zy9A.jpg)

Dear God,

Make it stop.

Best Regards,
-bugalou

Yep might have hit 100 again. Record was 99 so we hit that. Should be in the way down each day slowly as heights lower with high pressure moving eastward. Still- DPís mixing out around 60 make it a dry West Texas heat.

On another note, Memphis is 15 inches above normal for precip this year to date- and only needs another couple inches to get the entire annual rainfall compete. Come pattern time change as the MJO heads to phase 2, we should be able to eek that out. Short term dryness is definitely increasing while long term is in great shape.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 17, 2019, 08:07:52 PM
Yep might have hit 100 again. Record was 99 so we hit that. Should be in the way down each day slowly as heights lower with high pressure moving eastward. Still- DPís mixing out around 60 make it a dry West Texas heat.

On another note, Memphis is 15 inches above normal for precip this year to date- and only needs another couple inches to get the entire annual rainfall compete. Come pattern time change as the MJO heads to phase 2, we should be able to eek that out. Short term dryness is definitely increasing while long term is in great shape.
short term drought  should only get drier as head into October... our driest month of the year per average
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: TNHunter on September 17, 2019, 08:10:42 PM
What about this tropical storm near Texas? Are we going to get any rain from it? NOAA discussion for west TN acts like we might and then mentions a cold front early next week that could bring rain and more seasonable temps?

Post Merge: September 17, 2019, 08:12:55 PM
Evening discussion:

Newly Developed tropical Storm Imelda may our best chance for relief from the Heat and rainfall. Imelda is currently near Houston and expected to drift slowly to the North. Its remnants should get caught up in strengthening Southwest flow by Saturday
and eventually turn to the Northeast. Guidance is in poor
agreement with this solution, but the GFS is the best case scenario for the Midsouth.

If we miss out on rain over the weekend, is appears more likely that a shortwave and associated cold front will approach the Midsouth early next week. Hopefully this will bring us conditions more typical of mid September than mid August along with some much needed rain.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 17, 2019, 08:15:10 PM
I mow for a living and probably will not mow most yards next week for the first time this year. Grass is struggling with heat. It is dry and things could use a drink but as Curt said we are in good shape in the big picture. I still have a couple ditches that I weedeat because they are to wet to mow.
Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 17, 2019, 08:55:10 PM
Lawncare companies are still staying on their schedule for fall aerating and seeding.

It seems ill-advised in this parching heat.

We let them do ours last week- and somehow I need to keep the grass well watered for three weeks...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on September 18, 2019, 04:32:20 AM


We'll be complaining about cold drizzly 35 degree days soon enough!

This is not something to complain about unless you're missing out in the snow.  Otherwise, it's very pleasant weather.


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on September 18, 2019, 04:41:17 AM
When is this f*cking heat going to F*CKING end????

There's no relief in sight anywhere in any forecast!
Well, the days get shorter thru Dec. 21st, so that should help push the highs down to  the 75/80 by Christmas.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on September 18, 2019, 04:48:52 AM




On another note, Memphis is 15 inches above normal for precip this year to date- and only needs another couple inches to get the entire annual rainfall compete. Come pattern time change as the MJO heads to phase 2, we should be able to eek that out. Short term dryness is definitely increasing while long term is in great shape.

Through the entire 384 hour run of the GFS, there's only 0.14" of precip.  At that rate, we'd not even pick up another inch for the rest of  year!



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on September 18, 2019, 07:27:25 AM
The GFS depicts a short break from the heat, but no real rain to speak of, then a return to the mid 90's around 10/1. More record heat could be on the way.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 18, 2019, 08:27:20 AM
The GFS depicts a short break from the heat, but no real rain to speak of, then a return to the mid 90's around 10/1. More record heat could be on the way.
euro long range looks like mid July pattern ... unreal
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 18, 2019, 01:18:24 PM
I can tell the humidity has backed off a bit- mid 60s DP. But, the air temps are still in the 90s- so the heat continues.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on September 18, 2019, 01:34:10 PM
euro long range looks like mid July pattern ... unreal

If possible, pics would be appreciated :) :) :)
For those of us too lazy or busy to look for ourselves
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 18, 2019, 07:07:19 PM
My son is in Upstate NY for work and he called to tell me it was 45 this morning. I hung up on him.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: joemomma on September 19, 2019, 08:07:29 AM
It was very pleasant outside this morning when I took the dog out.  There was a nice breeze, and the sun wasn't fully up yet.  It was already getting hot as I walked in to work this morning.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mamMATTus on September 19, 2019, 12:54:41 PM
End of 12z run offers a glimmer of hope with cooler temps starting to show up at the beginning of October. I wonít put too much faith in it right now though.

Also, looks like we could actually get some decent rain on Wednesday. Hope that actually turns out to be true.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 19, 2019, 02:11:37 PM
Looks like we get a few days reprieve as a trough finally swings through, but then right back in the frying pan.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 19, 2019, 03:37:59 PM
End of 12z run offers a glimmer of hope with cooler temps starting to show up at the beginning of October. I wonít put too much faith in it right now though.

Also, looks like we could actually get some decent rain on Wednesday. Hope that actually turns out to be true.
euro sure doesn't sho this... euro has a big fat ridge on top of us long range... gfs   stands garbage for sure... till euro on board... ::hot::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Crockett on September 20, 2019, 02:39:50 PM
The Tennessee Division of Forestry will require burn permits for all outdoors fires within 500 ft. of a forest, grassland, etc. beginning MONDAY. Typically, burn permits aren't required until October 15.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2019, 07:04:40 PM
This fire season could rival 2016 if the weather pattern doesn't change.  I was relatively wet in August 2016 (near 6" of rain), but this August only 3" fell.  And not a drop of water has fallen so far this September, compared to 1.6" in 2016 before the rain shut off.  It's very unnerving observing the dryness rapidly increasing with more rainless 90's coming next week.  The unusual heat is only accelerating evaporation, drying out the ground and vegetation.  The Smoky Mountains may live up to their name again this year, unfortunately. 





Post Merge: September 21, 2019, 05:53:02 AM
No relief in sight from the well-above normal temperatures.  At this point, I would settle for normal.

Quote
For Tuesday and Wednesday, flat upper ridge and surface ridging
across the southern Appalachians. Mid-level capping inversion and
dry airmass will keep conditions mostly dry. Highs will start to
approach near records by mid-week.


For Thursday, another frontal boundary will approach the area but
increasing upper ridge will suppress most convection with continue
unseasonably hot conditions. Near record highs anticipated.

For Friday, ECMWF and GFS agree with unseasonably strong upper
ridge/heights with mid-level capping inversion. End result, record
to near record highs and dry conditions.

By the end of next week, most areas will be entering moderate to severe drought status given the record heat.  Just as in 2016, rapidly deteriorating soil moisture conditions will make this fire season long and intense if rain doesn't return soon.

And this is not just Tennessee.  Most surrounding states are also showing signs of drought spreading at a rapid pace.  The question is: is this a short-term, "flash" drought that will end as winter rains set in, or the beginnings of something long-term, as we endured 06-07?  We haven't had a multi-year, statewide drought since back then, so it's something to watch this winter.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 21, 2019, 07:49:44 AM
Welcome back Jaycee.

The pattern in late September into probably at least the 10th of October is pretty much a copy and paste of Early October 2007.  The pattern that gave parts of Western KY a run at 100F on October 5th-6th of that year. 

It is everything hideous in a Fall pattern

- MJO phases 8 and 1 are awesome in the winter but downright horrid in the fall. 

- Western  USA Troughing is typically bad news anytime of the year but when you have a hyper ridge on the other side then it is very bad.

Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 21, 2019, 08:19:47 AM
The euro is dead set on most of us pushing 100 hundred late next week ...
Just unreal
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 21, 2019, 09:07:22 AM
[attachimg=1]

The 8-14 CPC is maxed out over KY and NE TN.  Mid 90s at least as far north as Southwest OH look likely in the extended range. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on September 21, 2019, 09:56:23 AM
The euro is dead set on most of us pushing 100 hundred late next week ...
Just unreal

Welcome to the 21st century.  ::hot::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on September 21, 2019, 11:12:16 AM
Iím in SE Maine this weekend for a wedding. Believe it or not itís pretty warm up here too. Not as bad as home, but way above normal.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2019, 11:44:48 AM
Leaf peepers are probably in for a disappointing fall color season.  Trees are shedding leaves by the bag full, and what color that appears will be fleeting.  Dark reds and burgundies are common in very dry autumns, especially on maples and red & white oaks, but the color quickly turns to brown when soil moisture is limited.

Today actually doesn't feel that bad outside with lower humidity, but I would gladly take a dewpoint of 70 right now if it meant a soaking rain.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mamMATTus on September 21, 2019, 12:43:50 PM
When the pattern changes, expect the opposite extreme. Temps will drop rapidly and will probably be tied in with a SVR outbreak/flooding. God it canít soon enough for us people that work outside.
Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 21, 2019, 02:59:30 PM
All this heat while an arctic air mass will infiltrate the west over the next 10 days with early snow even onto the northern plains. Ski resorts out west will start an early base( this makes this skier happy beyond belief).Itís all a balancing act which will eventually see the trough move east afterwards. Phase 1 of the MJO in Sept/Oct is a cold pattern out west which then shifts east in Phase 2.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 21, 2019, 03:30:31 PM
All this heat while an arctic air mass will infiltrate the west over the next 10 days with early snow even onto the northern plains. Ski resorts out west will start an early base( this makes this skier happy beyond belief).Itís all a balancing act which will eventually see the trough move east afterwards. Phase 1 of the MJO in Sept/Oct is a cold pattern out west which then shifts east in Phase 2.
if. Even it can get to phase two... going take awhile ...  going have a strong powerful system to wreck this crappy pattern
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 21, 2019, 03:55:29 PM
All this heat while an arctic air mass will infiltrate the west over the next 10 days with early snow even onto the northern plains. Ski resorts out west will start an early base( this makes this skier happy beyond belief).Itís all a balancing act which will eventually see the trough move east afterwards. Phase 1 of the MJO in Sept/Oct is a cold pattern out west which then shifts east in Phase 2.

When it does shift East then that is when one has to potentially worry about severe weather as a deep trough could spawn a pretty potent system especially when you factor in an active northern stream.  That is what ended the 2007 pattern and the severe weather the day after the Sevier County fire broke down the 2016 pattern for about 3 weeks.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 21, 2019, 04:30:28 PM
Day 10 Euro has the ridge visiting Hudson Bay. Impressive.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 21, 2019, 05:53:17 PM
 ::blowtorch::
Day 10 Euro has the ridge visiting Hudson Bay. Impressive.
::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2019, 05:56:15 PM
When it does shift East then that is when one has to potentially worry about severe weather as a deep trough could spawn a pretty potent system especially when you factor in an active northern stream.  That is what ended the 2007 pattern and the severe weather the day after the Sevier County fire broke down the 2016 pattern for about 3 weeks.   

Most don't realize how lucky this area was back in 2016.  If those fires had broke out a few weeks earlier in November before the pattern changed to wet in December, they would have spread over most of the Smokies, where roads are few and the only way to fight a fire would be by airplane or helicopter dropping water from above.  We really dodged a bullet, despite how bad it got, because it could've been a true natural disaster of historic proportions.   

Post Merge: September 21, 2019, 06:17:41 PM
All this heat while an arctic air mass will infiltrate the west over the next 10 days with early snow even onto the northern plains. Ski resorts out west will start an early base( this makes this skier happy beyond belief).Itís all a balancing act which will eventually see the trough move east afterwards. Phase 1 of the MJO in Sept/Oct is a cold pattern out west which then shifts east in Phase 2.

The west wins in the upcoming pattern.  A trough digs deep out there, building a ridge over us.  We may be in this for the long haul.  Drought loves to feed on itself, so I'm really worried this could last through most of our Autumn.  We've had two very wet years behind us, so the pendulum could be swinging the other way, and I hate that.  Give me soggy swamp over dry dust any day.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 21, 2019, 06:23:54 PM
There was a 100 acre field fire that threatened some homes in Oak Grove, KY across the state line from Clarksville, TN.  It took 4 firefighter departments to get rid of it.

Unfortunately, this may be just the beginning.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2019, 06:26:48 PM
Pray.  (Come on Hammer Time, tell us how it is)
https://youtu.be/QVgPUhY0UiE (https://youtu.be/QVgPUhY0UiE)

Yep, showin' my age.   ;D

Quote
The ridge really surges north Friday through Saturday as a deep
incoming trough across the western states amplifies the heights. The
GFS and ECMWF show the strong ridge in place beyond this extended
forecast period. So not only will we approach record max temps on
Friday and Saturday, records are in danger of being broken for the
next several days beyond this extended period
.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 22, 2019, 08:05:11 AM
Can we put the Great Blowtorch next to the Fall 2019 title as a play on words for the Great Pumpkin?   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on September 22, 2019, 08:11:15 AM
This is karma for this pumpkin spice sh*t and bringing out Christmas decorations in the middle of the summer
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 22, 2019, 08:25:41 AM
The 06Z GFS Temperatures at 1pm on 9/30 (probably need to add about 3 degrees to this due to our dry ground)

Nashville: 95F
Memphis: 94F
Cincinnati OH: 90F
Windsor ON: 84F 

Meanwhile Out West at that same time:
Great Falls, MT: 32F
Las Vegas, NV: 65F
Reno, NV: 44F
Spokane, WA: 47F
Yellowstone National Park, WY: 27F   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 22, 2019, 08:41:08 AM
The 06Z GFS Temperatures at 1pm on 9/30 (probably need to add about 3 degrees to this due to our dry ground)

Nashville: 95F
Memphis: 94F
Cincinnati OH: 90F
Windsor ON: 84F 

Meanwhile Out West at that same time:
Great Falls, MT: 32F
Las Vegas, NV: 65F
Reno, NV: 44F
Spokane, WA: 47F
Yellowstone National Park, WY: 27F
sounds like a good recipe for a big storm... brewing .mmm
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Matthew on September 22, 2019, 12:41:12 PM
James Spann
Yesterday Alabama had 19 wildfires statewide, bringing the total to 156 in the last 7 days and 313 in the last 30 days.

We can expect more fire starts, hotter, faster fires,  and erratic fire behavior in the dry air over Alabama. It is also harder to get containment lines to hold the fire when humidity is low. Be very careful if you have to do any outdoor burning!

Post Merge: September 22, 2019, 08:18:28 PM
There was a 100 acre field fire that threatened some homes in Oak Grove, KY across the state line from Clarksville, TN.  It took 4 firefighter departments to get rid of it.

Unfortunately, this may be just the beginning.

ĎSmoke-nadoí Spawned by Kentucky Fire
 https://www.weather.com/news/trending/video/smoke-nado-swirls-in-southern-kentucky-fire?pl=pl-the-latest
From The Weather Channel iPhone App
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 22, 2019, 08:24:42 PM
Hope everyone enjoys the fall chill of 85 degrees the next couple of days.  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Matthew on September 22, 2019, 08:28:08 PM
Hope everyone enjoys the fall chill of 85 degrees the next couple of days.  ::bagoverhead::

Wish it included rain
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 22, 2019, 08:54:31 PM
The GFS now keeps us all in the 80s next weekend and first part of next week. Euro still has mid 90s. Looks like maybe both try to break ridge around day 10.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on September 23, 2019, 06:16:52 AM
Happy first day of fall.

Despite the sun being at the same position and strength as in March, the weather won't cooperate with cooler temperatures.  Record highs in the low to mid 90's appear likely in most eastern valley locations Thursday-Sunday.  With no rain falling, along with record heat, drought is gaining ground each day.  Will this be another 2016, when large parts of Tennessee were in exceptional drought by Fall's end?  Hope not, but it's certainly heading in that direction. 

Post Merge: September 23, 2019, 08:17:59 AM
Current HRRR offers some hope for rain for parts of west/middle TN today, but amounts look too light and scattered to help much.  Nevertheless, just seeing water fall from the sky would feel good at this point.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 23, 2019, 08:55:11 AM
News flash... breaking news...just had about a 3 minute shower here at work ... first rain drop in little over a month ...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 23, 2019, 09:15:38 AM
Interesting DT WxRisk vid went out last night. He notes how Septembers this decade have been warmer, but the corollary has also been true in that March's have been cooler. I forget who said it, but the idea seasons are trending longer seems valid.

Point of confusion: I would think the amount of warm ePac water would ultimately lead to a ridge out west. Perhaps the axis of greatest AN anomalies + our death ridge being the strongest player on the board is enough to offset this. With each western trough reinforcing the ridge + a cooling ENSO region underneath these warm ST anomalies, it makes sense we're stuck repetitive pattern. I wonder if the #1 thing we need right now is for Canada to cool down.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 23, 2019, 10:30:00 AM
I wonder if the "delayed seasons" could be explained by...

1) Diminished ice cap and generally warmer temperatures above the Arctic Circle delaying the rate of seasonal cooldown in the late summer/early fall, which translates into extended warmth/delayed cooldown at lower latitudes.
2) A related change in oceans currents and general hemispheric flow in the spring time means less robust warming from the tropics into the continent, which creates the appearance of extended cooler than normal temperatures in the spring months. I wonder if this also explains less dynamic systems in the spring time (why spring time systems have seemed to be "meh" in these parts in recent years). The atmosphere is becoming more homogeneous and less dynamic with less extremes in temperature. The air masses have perhaps trended more uniform.

This is all speculation, and I probably don't completely know what I'm talking about.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Clay on September 23, 2019, 10:37:26 AM
I think it has to do with the jet stream slowing, also a byproduct of a warming arctic, where weather patterns get stuck much more readily.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 23, 2019, 10:41:37 AM
I think it has to do with the jet stream slowing, also a byproduct of a warming arctic, where weather patterns get stuck much more readily.

Probably a clearer, more succinct way of saying what I was trying to say in my second point above.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Crockett on September 23, 2019, 10:56:01 AM
It is amazing how many people there is who continue to insist that our climate isn't warming.

I'm not talking about people who don't believe in anthropogenic global warming; I'm skeptical of that as well. I'm talking about conservatives (of which I am one) who will argue until their face turns blue that the climate isn't changing at all. These are educated, otherwise intelligent people who are convinced that admitting that we're getting hotter is going to give a green light to the other side of the political equation to implement some sort of radical measures. Their latest argument is that "ground sensors" are showing warming because 30 years ago they were in uninhabited areas and now they're surrounded by concrete due to urban sprawl, and satellite data shows we haven't warmed at all.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on September 23, 2019, 01:39:42 PM
Never thought I would just be grateful for a cloudy day. 

The wind picking up today is a bit unnerving, especially looking at all the brown fields and trees shedding brown, dying leaves.  It's going to be a very long forest/wild fire season this fall. 

Post Merge: September 23, 2019, 02:51:17 PM
Fires have broken out in Cocke and Blount counties today.  Not surprised with the increase in wind--it was bound to start sooner than later.

https://www.wbir.com/ (https://www.wbir.com/)

This is going to get bad before it gets better. 

Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on September 23, 2019, 02:56:42 PM
The "Like" button isn't the right sentiment for JayCee's news but I do want to show my support for him getting the word out.  While we all hope there won't be any danger to homes, much less entire neighborhoods, this is a time for people in the mountains to put evacuation and communication plans together just in case.  After 2016 it's very disturbing to see these conditions developing, particularly with fires now starting to appear.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on September 23, 2019, 03:30:57 PM
The "Like" button isn't the right sentiment for JayCee's news but I do want to show my support for him getting the word out.  While we all hope there won't be any danger to homes, much less entire neighborhoods, this is a time for people in the mountains to put evacuation and communication plans together just in case.  After 2016 it's very disturbing to see these conditions developing, particularly with fires now starting to appear.

2016 was the worst fire season I've ever witnessed here.  I dread seeing anything similar, but the dryness/heat we are currently experiencing is actually worse than this time in 2016.  Southeast TN, around Chattanooga, might have been in worse shape in 2016, but we weren't as dry here (in central areas) in August and September.  It is alarming, to be quite honest.  I've been running the sprinkler on overtime in the wooded areas near the road at my home, in case someone tosses out a cigarette on the parched grass.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on September 23, 2019, 04:13:57 PM
We finally got some rain, but it's hard to be happy when 90s+ are still around next week.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mamMATTus on September 23, 2019, 05:10:03 PM
Signs of life, albeit sparse.[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on September 23, 2019, 05:37:42 PM
Doesn't look like any rain in most eastern areas.  Didn't really expect any. 

I remember many late September rainy days stuck in the 50's way back in the ancient decade of the 80's.  Now we have heat waves that break long-standing records.  It's a far cry from the Autumns I remember as a kid.

This dry pattern wouldn't be so bad if we could just cool down.  But we're going to sizzle well into early next week.  Just crazy. The Sun can't head south fast enough for me right now.  Go bake the Southern Hemisphere for awhile. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 23, 2019, 05:38:32 PM
Really interesting SST anomalies at the moment with the eastern PAC in La NiŮa territory and western PAC in El NiŮo territory. SOI continues to drop well into El NiŮo territory. Thatís quite the conflict.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on September 23, 2019, 06:37:35 PM
Chris Bailey argues for a flip to colder than normal weather for the second half of Autumn.  I guess that would be around late October or November.  He offers a few explanations, including the extremely warm water off the coast of Alaska.  That warm "blob" would argue for a ridge developing over western NA at some point.  I guess we'll see, but at least the current warmth may not last until December, as it did in 2016.  Keep hope alive.

Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on September 23, 2019, 08:34:58 PM
We had a brief downpour in Franklin this evening
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 23, 2019, 08:50:01 PM
Chris Bailey argues for a flip to colder than normal weather for the second half of Autumn.  I guess that would be around late October or November.  He offers a few explanations, including the extremely warm water off the coast of Alaska.  That warm "blob" would argue for a ridge developing over western NA at some point.  I guess we'll see, but at least the current warmth may not last until December, as it did in 2016.  Keep hope alive.

I'm all for keeping hope alive, but CB tends to over rely on analogs. Just my  ::twocents::. Similar to last year, this entry to autumn pattern is unique and could very well lead into another winter of unchartered territory. While I enjoy his thoughts, his reach for anything 'cool/cold' can feel like a thrown bone for clicks. Hopefully, his winter weather forecast verifies this year. Even in crappy setups, I root for our neighbor states .  ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Crockett on September 23, 2019, 11:14:26 PM
I'm all for keeping hope alive, but CB tends to over rely on analogs. Just my  ::twocents::. Similar to last year, this entry to autumn pattern is unique and could very well lead into another winter of unchartered territory. While I enjoy his thoughts, his reach for anything 'cool/cold' can feel like a thrown bone for clicks. Hopefully, his winter weather forecast verifies this year. Even in crappy setups, I root for our neighbor states .  ;D

Tbh, I removed Chris from my bookmarks a while back. I just got tired of the broken record. He's a smart guy and I enjoyed reading him for a long time but his cold/snow bias just gets in the way of his common sense.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on September 24, 2019, 06:56:35 AM
I'm all for keeping hope alive, but CB tends to over rely on analogs. Just my  ::twocents::. Similar to last year, this entry to autumn pattern is unique and could very well lead into another winter of unchartered territory. While I enjoy his thoughts, his reach for anything 'cool/cold' can feel like a thrown bone for clicks. Hopefully, his winter weather forecast verifies this year. Even in crappy setups, I root for our neighbor states .  ;D

I take his posts with a grain of salt these days.  He not only has a bias toward cold and wet with a drought ongoing; he has also developed a bit of an attitude.  He loves to call out local NWS offices in how they issue advisories, or if their forecasts fail to mirror his own hype during winter months.  True humility goes a long way with me in forgiving a busted forecast, but he shows little.  No one knows it all, and like you mention, I think we are in a state of climate flux that makes the usual analogs and teleconnections pretty useless these days.   Nevertheless, this time, I hope he's right.

Post Merge: September 24, 2019, 07:40:20 AM
Euro has most of TN baking in the middle to upper 90's into next Thursday.  It has to be one of the worst/longest heat waves for late September into October. 

GFS holds out hope for a change by the following weekend.  However, the Euro shows very light precipitation between now and next Thursday.  That's really bad.     
Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 24, 2019, 08:28:49 AM
I have a concern... and, I am desperately looking for something on the horizon to show it's unfounded.

I'm concerned that we've now reached a sort of tipping point. This may sound like an alarmist post- so be it.

I'm giving this until, let's say, October 15th. If we don't get a substantial cool spell by or at least imminent by that date, then something is very wrong. Right now, I don't trust any fleeting hints of cooler weather in the long range models past a week anymore than I would trust a snowstorm in 10 days in the winter.

I hope we get some cool 40-degree nights very soon as we normally would have in the past. That just seems very distantly removed from reality right now.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 24, 2019, 08:37:18 AM
I have a concern... and, I am desperately looking for something on the horizon to show it's unfounded.

I'm concerned that we've now reached a sort of tipping point. This may sound like an alarmist post- so be it.

I'm giving this until, let's say, October 15th. If we don't get a substantial cool spell by or at least imminent by that date, then something is very wrong. Right now, I don't trust any fleeting hints of cooler weather in the long range models past a week anymore than I would trust a snowstorm in 10 days in the winter.

I hope we get some cool 40-degree nights very soon as we normally would have in the past. That just seemed very distantly removed from reality right now.

What sort of tipping point?

The pattern just seems to be stuck. The trough in the West is giving them unusual cold. Snowing in the Rockies and some parts of Spokane may see a rare September snow. Warm and dry here, cold and wet there.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on September 24, 2019, 08:50:17 AM
I have a concern... and, I am desperately looking for something on the horizon to show it's unfounded.

I'm concerned that we've now reached a sort of tipping point. This may sound like an alarmist post- so be it.

I'm giving this until, let's say, October 15th. If we don't get a substantial cool spell by or at least imminent by that date, then something is very wrong. Right now, I don't trust any fleeting hints of cooler weather in the long range models past a week anymore than I would trust a snowstorm in 10 days in the winter.

I hope we get some cool 40-degree nights very soon as we normally would have in the past. That just seemed very distantly removed from reality right now.

I think many are feeling a sense of something being "off".   The present state of the oceans north of the equator is an example.  There is currently very little cool water (in respect to averages) anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere.  That's not normal, and has to be playing a part in the current pattern.  The Southern Hemisphere is in better shape, but there is a definite imbalance right now in ocean temperatures between both hemispheres. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 24, 2019, 08:56:36 AM
I have a concern... and, I am desperately looking for something on the horizon to show it's unfounded.

I'm concerned that we've now reached a sort of tipping point. This may sound like an alarmist post- so be it.

I'm giving this until, let's say, October 15th. If we don't get a substantial cool spell by or at least imminent by that date, then something is very wrong. Right now, I don't trust any fleeting hints of cooler weather in the long range models past a week anymore than I would trust a snowstorm in 10 days in the winter.

I hope we get some cool 40-degree nights very soon as we normally would have in the past. That just seems very distantly removed from reality right now.

This is where you look to the EPS and GEFS for guidance. Both lower heights and cool temps back down after the first few days of October. No need to be alarmist or irrational (as some have been in this thread already). The Western US will be significantly below normal for a while longer until global pressures change. Prolonged summer isnít fun but itís happened before.

I get tempted every day to quit posting altogether with all the whining and lack of rationale to explain weather patterns . Iím trying but itís hard.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 24, 2019, 09:48:55 AM
Well- we certainly don't want a schism or even tensions on the forum over this. So, I'll try to keep my own voicing of these kinds of concerns to a minimum. I appreciate the knowledge and interest shared from some of you too much to risk running anyone off or make it where anyone doesn't want to be here.

Like I said, I'm desperate for reassurance that we'll get back to normal at some point... cool weather in the fall, snow in the winter, etc.

It's just that the trends over recent years seem to be screaming loud and clear. I think what put me over the edge was a trip to Alaska in early August where we brought clothes to dress warmly, but instead we sweated in 80+ degree temperatures around Juneau. Anchorage hit an all time record high of 90 back in July. We saw a glacier that is said to be getting smaller every year. I saw that with my own eyes and saw old photos of the glacier when it was a lot bigger.

I used to be the first to say slow down... we have cycles where we have warmer periods and colder periods. There's not necessarily a long-term warming trend. We'll get back to colder. I just have a harder time maintaining that stance now. I'm not giving up. Let's hope that cold snap in the Pacific Northwest is a glimmer of hope for yet another year.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on September 24, 2019, 10:39:04 AM
I honestly don't see what the problem is posting concerns, feelings, worries, etc. about the weather in a weather forum.  Is it not open to discussion?  If we can only have one view and one way of looking at things here, then it's not an open forum, but just everyone marching to the beat of the same drum.  Is that what we have to do to be able to post anything here?  Then I'll be glad to be the one to bow out right now, because I'm not a follower, and voicing concerns/worries isn't being an alarmist. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 24, 2019, 10:44:15 AM
Warm can stay around to thanksgiving all I care ... hoping we stay above for awhile ...

Post Merge: September 24, 2019, 10:53:17 AM
0z euro long range keeps a 594dm ridge right on us pretty much...  pattern does seem stuck ....
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on September 24, 2019, 12:07:46 PM
Warm can stay around to thanksgiving all I care ... hoping we stay above for awhile ...

Post Merge: September 24, 2019, 10:53:17 AM
0z euro long range keeps a 594dm ridge right on us pretty much...  pattern does seem stuck ....
Why am I not shocked. Your just bitter, because outside of a hot September, spring was boring and the summer was just kind of average actually. Many cool days May-July and even some of august. These hot days will pass, it has happened before. Here's hoping you freezing your rear off this winter under a ton of snow and ice. ::rofl::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Crockett on September 24, 2019, 12:16:24 PM
2016 was the worst fire season I've ever witnessed here.  I dread seeing anything similar, but the dryness/heat we are currently experiencing is actually worse than this time in 2016.  Southeast TN, around Chattanooga, might have been in worse shape in 2016, but we weren't as dry here (in central areas) in August and September.  It is alarming, to be quite honest.  I've been running the sprinkler on overtime in the wooded areas near the road at my home, in case someone tosses out a cigarette on the parched grass.

I will say that while 2016 certainly showed those of us here in the east that we aren't immune to the crowning fires that represent extreme risk to life and property, it was still a huge exception to the rule. Obviously the 2016 Gatlinburg fire changed the way we view wildfires in East Tennessee. I doubt you'll ever again see the NPS content to just establish a fire line and let a fire burn itself out. But it was still an exception to the rule; a perfect storm where a bunch of circumstances lined up perfectly for a very deadly fire. However bad this wildfire season gets, and it definitely looks like it could be an exceptional one, I expect us to return to our typical East TN wildfires that stay in the understory and scorch acreage without posing a huge risk to structures or life.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 24, 2019, 12:30:38 PM
I will say in spite of everything else, today is very pleasant out... at least itís a bit more like you would expect in late September.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on September 24, 2019, 01:56:50 PM
I will say in spite of everything else, today is very pleasant out... at least itís a bit more like you would expect in late September.

It feels great out, at least to me. I'm off work today and I've been basking in the sun with a book to read.

It was chilly enough this morning at 7 that I actually had to put on a hoodie. It's hard to imagine that it will be nearly 100 degrees next week, but for now, I'm enjoying the dry air and cool breezes in the mornings.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mamMATTus on September 24, 2019, 05:18:39 PM
I think many are feeling a sense of something being "off".   The present state of the oceans north of the equator is an example.  There is currently very little cool water (in respect to averages) anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere.  That's not normal, and has to be playing a part in the current pattern.  The Southern Hemisphere is in better shape, but there is a definite imbalance right now in ocean temperatures between both hemispheres.

Do you have a source for this info? Not that I'm doubting you, I would just like to read more about it and spread that info.

Post Merge: September 24, 2019, 06:45:26 PM
Mark my words, the breakdown of this deathridge/pattern will coincide with a major severe weather outbreak. Book it.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 24, 2019, 08:45:04 PM
I honestly don't see what the problem is posting concerns, feelings, worries, etc. about the weather in a weather forum.  Is it not open to discussion?  If we can only have one view and one way of looking at things here, then it's not an open forum, but just everyone marching to the beat of the same drum.  Is that what we have to do to be able to post anything here?  Then I'll be glad to be the one to bow out right now, because I'm not a follower, and voicing concerns/worries isn't being an alarmist.

Thereís nothing wrong with stating an opinion even if itís contrary. An open forum is fine with contrasting points of view. I like a discussion based on rationale rather than speculation. Thatís basically all I am saying while being respectful.

Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on September 24, 2019, 08:57:33 PM
Do you have a source for this info? Not that I'm doubting you, I would just like to read more about it and spread that info.

Post Merge: September 24, 2019, 06:45:26 PM
Mark my words, the breakdown of this deathridge/pattern will coincide with a major severe weather outbreak. Book it.

SST today
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190925/bb00388725804d38efda64a9c9234cea.jpg)

SST Late Sept 2014
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190925/ee033bf64847eb92e82415ed2b75ac74.jpg)

SST were very similar with lots of warm water in the N Pac as well. The difference is general warming trends to El NiŮo in 3.4 in 2014, and some small cooling in 3.4 in 2019. Temperatures were normal in September 2014 vs warm 2019. The biggest story is a warm west PAC ENSO region and a cold east PAC ENSO region. Thatís a contrast that should makes some ďwavesĒ per se as we move out of the summer doldrums.

I donít have all the answers on why the MJO is slow moving through warm fall phases. I know Phases 8-1 causes certain global pressure changes that result in the Bermuda high staying in place. Itís gets replaced by a trough in the east in Phase 2. I think we see things change as it moves more that direction in early October. It may not be well below normal, but man would I love some days topping out in the low 70ís and lows in the 40ís.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: wfrogge on September 24, 2019, 09:18:04 PM
Warm can stay around to thanksgiving all I care ... hoping we stay above for awhile ...

Post Merge: September 24, 2019, 10:53:17 AM
0z euro long range keeps a 594dm ridge right on us pretty much...  pattern does seem stuck ....

Interested to see if this causes us to have one **** of an outbreak of severe weather. The longer it holds the more likely the swing on both ends will be extreme
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 25, 2019, 05:04:10 AM
Remember we have a very active northern stream.  Fall's with active northern streams can become active severe weather producers.

Montana is about to know all about that this upcoming weekend.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 25, 2019, 06:59:04 AM
Day 10 Euro FINALLY shows a decent cold front pushing through our area. Should cool is off into the mid 70s. ::guitar::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Scot on September 25, 2019, 07:41:37 AM
Thought I would stop by and see what was going on and after reading everything, all I can think of is the movie "The Day After Tomorrow".  Ha!!!
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 25, 2019, 09:45:20 AM
Thought I would stop by and see what was going on and after reading everything, all I can think of is the movie "The Day After Tomorrow".  Ha!!!

Pull up a chair and enjoy the drama.

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/6873df33d9992741a4e78f111fc43a61/tenor.gif)

Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 25, 2019, 02:25:50 PM
Day 10 Euro FINALLY shows a decent cold front pushing through our area. Should cool is off into the mid 70s. ::guitar::

and the 12z takes it away...   ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 25, 2019, 02:27:43 PM
and the 12z takes it away...   ::blowtorch::

Hey...model madness is still an upgrade to consistent LR  ::blowtorch:: with no end in sight.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 25, 2019, 05:10:59 PM
I donít care what the Euro says. Fall will arrive by the end of next week. Book it.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 25, 2019, 05:18:32 PM
I donít care what the Euro says. Fall will arrive by the end of next week. Book it.

Rumor has it, fall isn't coming until Vandy and UT football combine for more wins than the Memphis Tigers this season.

In other words, July in Christmas.   ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 25, 2019, 06:35:48 PM
Rumor has it, fall isn't coming until Vandy and UT football combine for more wins than the Memphis Tigers this season.

In other words, July in Christmas.   ::blowtorch::
yeah till euro gets consistent with it meh...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on September 26, 2019, 07:33:57 AM
Rain is falling at my house.  It's been so long I was actually confused as to what the sound was at first, but it really is water falling from the sky and hitting my roof!  I hope all of us get a much-needed drink from the small showers that come through today.

On another note the forecasts for TS Karen are all over the place but they do expect her to do a loop and at least start moving towards the U.S.  Will this be the tropical system we need to break the ridge?  There's a long time between now and then but it's at least something to have some hope in.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 26, 2019, 08:35:05 AM
Rain is falling at my house.  It's been so long I was actually confused as to what the sound was at first, but it really is water falling from the sky and hitting my roof!  I hope all of us get a much-needed drink from the small showers that come through today.

On another note the forecasts for TS Karen are all over the place but they do expect her to do a loop and at least start moving towards the U.S.  Will this be the tropical system we need to break the ridge?  There's a long time between now and then but it's at least something to have some hope in.

Glad you brought this up...because I've been getting mixed signals as to how current tropical activity must behave to weaken the ridge. Generally, I'd think we'd need Gulf activity to break the log jam. Last met post I read seemed to suggest a stronger Karen would enforce the ridge; a weaker, quick-to-fizzle Karen would be of more benefit. Honestly, I'm more focused on what's going in our cold, continental air source regions. Good to see some winter weather advisory products on the board.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 26, 2019, 08:53:26 AM
Glad you brought this up...because I've been getting mixed signals as to how current tropical activity must behave to weaken the ridge. Generally, I'd think we'd need Gulf activity to break the log jam. Last met post I read seemed to suggest a stronger Karen would enforce the ridge; a weaker, quick-to-fizzle Karen would be of more benefit. Honestly, I'm more focused on what's going in our cold, continental air source regions. Good to see some winter weather advisory products on the board.
just go read cut banks Montana nws forecast... awesome
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 26, 2019, 11:38:42 AM
They whiffed on todayís forecast. High was supposed to be 87. Currently 65 with a 12 mph north wind. How refreshing.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mamMATTus on September 26, 2019, 11:38:53 AM
Just fyi, this rain weíre getting right now around Nashville...GFS said so a week ago. Euro did not.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: TNHunter on September 26, 2019, 12:09:09 PM
Yep feels amazing outside.  Truck says 64 degrees! With that north wind there is almost a chill in the air.  Most areas picked up 0.5-1.25 inches of rain also the last 48 hours.  Way more than was forecasted for sure.  Just goes to show mother nature will do what she wants when she wants.  May as well throw all models out the window and check the weather the day of when you wake up. LOL
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 26, 2019, 03:19:45 PM
Euro keeps pushing the cold front further and further out, which is usually the case in these type situations. Breakdown ridges too quickly. Longer range ensembles still showing the cool down. Last few days of cooler temps has me ready for more.

Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: gcbama on September 26, 2019, 04:28:42 PM
I must say this has been a devastatingly long summer.

Yet again we are not going to have a lengthy fall season....mid 90's into early October is just horrible
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 27, 2019, 04:12:17 AM
[attachimg=1]

Where you need to go if you want to escape the everlasting 90s. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mamMATTus on September 27, 2019, 06:21:35 AM
(Attachment Link)

Where you need to go if you want to escape the everlasting 90s.

Hopefully this is going to get the snowpack going and help funnel cold to the southeast.
Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 27, 2019, 06:41:04 AM
Letís just hope the next week is it for the 90s- seems like long range is locking in on low 80s for the first weekend of October with temps maybe sliding to 70s highs 50s lows the following week... that is unless weíre being teased.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 27, 2019, 06:47:05 AM
Letís just hope the next week is it for the 90s- seems like long range is locking in on low 80s for the first weekend of October with temps maybe sliding to 70s highs 50s lows the following week... that is unless weíre being teased.

I'm tracking it like it was a snow chance, lol. Main run Euro is on the warmer end of ensembles in the extended. Main run ends with temps still in the 90s at day 10. Hope it is wrong.

Post Merge: September 27, 2019, 07:51:15 AM

I donít have all the answers on why the MJO is slow moving through warm fall phases. I know Phases 8-1 causes certain global pressure changes that result in the Bermuda high staying in place. Itís gets replaced by a trough in the east in Phase 2. I think we see things change as it moves more that direction in early October. It may not be well below normal, but man would I love some days topping out in the low 70ís and lows in the 40ís.

Check out the MJO forecast today. GFS has it stopping in Phase 1, doing a u-turn and heading backward from Phase 1 back into Phase 8. How often does that happen?
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 27, 2019, 08:26:09 AM
Letís just hope the next week is it for the 90s- seems like long range is locking in on low 80s for the first weekend of October with temps maybe sliding to 70s highs 50s lows the following week... that is unless weíre being teased.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
just a good ole tease job appears... says the king
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on September 27, 2019, 08:19:57 PM
First rain in nearly a month this evening.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 28, 2019, 08:20:57 AM
0zeuro finally starting hint at breaking the ridge down bit... 7 days ...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 28, 2019, 09:01:29 AM
It loos like on Thursday-Friday of next week we will finally get a longer-lasting front.  Some models are more aggressive and show days in the 70s with even some 60s for highs for the extended.  Some of the latest GFS runs and EPS runs show what I think is more accurate in that we get some relief from the heat but it still isn't quite to the level of real Fall conditions. 

Still, 75-85F is better than 91-99F.  The more consistent true fall pattern probably is going to require a strong continental storm with a severe weather/tornado threat, which I think we see in late October/Early November as we saw in years such as 2001, 2007, and 2010 (as ridging probably protects the Gulf Coast from any tropical threats)
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 28, 2019, 11:05:46 AM
It loos like on Thursday-Friday of next week we will finally get a longer-lasting front.  Some models are more aggressive and show days in the 70s with even some 60s for highs for the extended.  Some of the latest GFS runs and EPS runs show what I think is more accurate in that we get some relief from the heat but it still isn't quite to the level of real Fall conditions. 

Still, 75-85F is better than 91-99F.  The more consistent true fall pattern probably is going to require a strong continental storm with a severe weather/tornado threat, which I think we see in late October/Early November as we saw in years such as 2001, 2007, and 2010 (as ridging probably protects the Gulf Coast from any tropical threats)

MJO continues to wander through Phase 1 and 8 in the extended, which correlates to warmth in the Eastern US. So no real chance of true fall like weather on the horizon.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on September 29, 2019, 12:54:31 PM
I s'pose we'll set an all-time record high for October this year?  ::hot:: I think the current record for Oct. is 95 degrees
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 29, 2019, 03:33:10 PM
The all-time highest for the state of Kentucky is 98F which occurred in 2007.  With some forecast highs in Western KY in the 95-96 range I do wonder if some location might be able to get there.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on September 29, 2019, 03:49:07 PM
Tennessee seasons as of recent years:

Early Summer: Late April-June
Midsummer: July-September
Late Summer: October-Early November
Autumn: Mid November-December
Slightly cooler autumn: January
Spring: February-Mid April
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: TNHunter on September 29, 2019, 04:09:18 PM
Tennessee seasons as of recent years:

Early Summer: Late April-June
Midsummer: July-September
Late Summer: October-Early November
Autumn: Mid November-December
Slightly cooler autumn: January
Spring: February-Mid April

Iíll say:

Mid April-End of June- Spring
July-Mid October-Summer
Mid October-End of December-Fall
January-Mid April Winter

Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on September 29, 2019, 05:27:55 PM
Iíll say:

Mid April-End of June- Spring
July-Mid October-Summer
Mid October-End of December-Fall
January-Mid April Winter

May (especially Late May) and June have been quite a bit above average in recent years.  I would say the Spring/Summer transition occurs sometime in Mid-May.  We start to see our non-derecho severe weather threats leave us to the west and north at that time.

I do agree with September and Early October being lost to Summer though.  With only 2011 and 2017 being exceptions to that rule this decade. 

November to April is more of an anything goes timeframe. It could be cold and snowy and very wintry in parts or it could be a blowtorch that resembles late Spring in parts or all of the above.   

Post Merge: September 29, 2019, 05:40:24 PM
Spring: Late February (in a warmer year), Mid-March (in an average to below average ish year) to Early to Mid May.  Coincides with Spring Severe Weather Season

Summer:  Mid-May to at least the End of September

Fall: Early or Mid October to Early December 

Winter (with some Spring and Fall mixed in):  Whenever Winter feels like it.  Sometimes it is November, sometimes it doesn't get going to February and lasts till April. Sometimes it is a week or two in January. Sometimes it has better places to be than the Eastern USA and doesn't show up at all. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on September 29, 2019, 11:09:44 PM
Just in case it helps... we're now under 100 days until Christmas.  ::snowman:: ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on September 30, 2019, 07:11:46 AM
September and August are both sitting at 80.3 for BNA.  :o After today, I imagine September will officially end up warmer than August. If my math is correct, this has happened only five other times in recorded history. Interesting, two of these times occurred in the Dust Bowl era. There were two additional close calls during the 30's as well so I suppose August/September being close in mean temp isn't as absurd as once thought. Still, it's crazy to think this September was a full 3 degrees warmer than last year. Hopefully this is the last time in a LONG time we average about to 80+ in September.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 30, 2019, 08:24:24 AM
September and August are both sitting at 80.3 for BNA.  :o After today, I imagine September will officially end up warmer than August. If my math is correct, this has happened only five other times in recorded history. Interesting, two of these times occurred in the Dust Bowl era. There were two additional close calls during the 30's as well so I suppose August/September being close in mean temp isn't as absurd as once thought. Still, it's crazy to think this September was a full 3 degrees warmer than last year. Hopefully this is the last time in a LONG time we average about to 80+ in September.
this is the trend from here out afraid ... longer summers ...  just last 5 years been trending warmer Septemberís. And longer duration
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: southaven on September 30, 2019, 09:35:09 AM
I believe it is more of a shift than extending.  Son has played baseball for 10 years and I can tell you it gets harder to get games in until July due to rain and cold than it used to.  This year supports that in Memphis area.  Now winters are not nearly as cold I do agree.  We need to swap high school baseball and football season based on recent years.


June

Temperature
Average temperature: 77.7 degrees (1.9 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 86.2 degrees (2.7 degrees below average)
Average low temperature: 69.2 degrees (1.1 degrees below average)
Warmest temperature: 92 degrees (21st, 22nd)
Coolest temperature: 57 degrees (14th)
Heating Degrees Days: 0
Cooling Degree Days: 388 (50 below average)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Nine days recorded a high temperature of 90 degrees or warmer, 4.9 less than the average for June.

Precipitation
Monthly total: 9.51" (5.88" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 13 (4.0 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.80" (7th)
Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: Record daily rainfall set on June 7 (2.80")
Comments: The month ranked as the fifth wettest June on record. Eight days recorded more than 0.5" of rain and three days recorded over 1.0" of rain.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 30, 2019, 02:47:17 PM
Wow 12z euro says ... break out the jackets next week...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 30, 2019, 02:58:32 PM
Wow 12z euro says ... break out the jackets next week...

Nice little bowling ball rolling through.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on September 30, 2019, 03:02:02 PM
Nice little bowling ball rolling through.

What kind of temps is it showing?


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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on September 30, 2019, 04:59:16 PM
What kind of temps is it showing?


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low over nite mid upper 40s. Highs low 70s pretty much
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on September 30, 2019, 05:15:10 PM
What kind of temps is it showing?

Day time highs in the mid 50s, but it doesn't have ensemble support.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on September 30, 2019, 05:18:55 PM
I think many are feeling a sense of something being "off".   The present state of the oceans north of the equator is an example.  There is currently very little cool water (in respect to averages) anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere.  That's not normal, and has to be playing a part in the current pattern.  The Southern Hemisphere is in better shape, but there is a definite imbalance right now in ocean temperatures between both hemispheres.
Transatlantic and transpacific jet travel.  Too many private jets.

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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on October 01, 2019, 05:26:28 AM
Kentucky's October records are toast.

Louisville has a high of 98F.

Bowling Green: 97F

The statewide record is 98F and the record for the individual places for the month is around 91-95F.


Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 01, 2019, 10:05:34 AM
Here comes cooler weather on Friday, not that we might not have a 90 degree day again this year after Friday but it does look like we are finally headed toward fall like temps. ::popcorn:: ::guitar::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on October 01, 2019, 01:09:54 PM
We are currently tied with our all time October record high of 94. Should shatter it for the next 3 straight days. I imagine most places in TN will break the monthly record. Is our state record in jeopardy like in KY?
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on October 01, 2019, 04:49:14 PM
Nashville broke their all-time October record with a temperature of 95F.  The highest today in KY was in Cumberland County which hit 97F just 1F off from the record.  We have tomorrow and even now Thursday to get more shots at it.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on October 01, 2019, 06:44:07 PM
Broke our all time October record of 94 by 3 degrees. I think 97 seems likely tomorrow and Thursday as well. We have been consistently beating GFS forecast highs by 1-2 degrees.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on October 02, 2019, 05:35:41 AM
Looks like relief is on the way if we can get through the next two days. Itís going to be a gradual step down, but after the next two days in the upper 90s, Mondayís low 70s will feel pretty awesome. NWS OHX (Nashville) posted this on their FB page:

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on October 02, 2019, 02:05:04 PM
We have a shot at 100 this afternoon. Currently 98 and the dew points have mixed out. Still have a couple of hours left.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on October 02, 2019, 03:35:20 PM
Euro and Ensembles hint we may not get out of the 60's Tuesday and Wednesday. That'd be nice.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on October 02, 2019, 08:45:04 PM
We have a shot at 100 this afternoon. Currently 98 and the dew points have mixed out. Still have a couple of hours left.
Well, it happened. We touched 100 officially between 3 and 4 pm today. That's probably a new state record for the month. We could be even hotter tomorrow.

Average high for this date at KCHA is 78, btw. Anybody want to re-locate to Norway with me?
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on October 03, 2019, 04:11:34 AM
Well, it happened. We touched 100 officially between 3 and 4 pm today. That's probably a new state record for the month. We could be even hotter tomorrow.

Average high for this date at KCHA is 78, btw. Anybody want to re-locate to Norway with me?
100 in October!

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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 03, 2019, 01:27:50 PM
Last day of the heat for a good while, never can rule out another very warm day or 2 but I think we are trending to fall after today. Bring it on!  ::guitar::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: NashRugger on October 03, 2019, 02:46:38 PM
This 68 up here feels very refreshing. The tease is on the way, with the main entree coming early next week for y'all.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: TNHunter on October 03, 2019, 03:25:23 PM
I am ready for early next week.  Mid 70's are going to feel like mid 50's after this horrendous heat wave. 

Side note: When was the last time it snowed in Tennessee in October (mountains don't count)?  I have lived here 23 years and best I can remember I have never seen snow in Dyersburg (NW TN) in October.  Have seen several snows before Mid November though. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on October 03, 2019, 03:42:09 PM
Praying that today is the last day in the 90s for awhile...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 03, 2019, 04:06:46 PM
I am ready for early next week.  Mid 70's are going to feel like mid 50's after this horrendous heat wave. 

Side note: When was the last time it snowed in Tennessee in October (mountains don't count)?  I have lived here 23 years and best I can remember I have never seen snow in Dyersburg (NW TN) in October.  Have seen several snows before Mid November though.
I know in Montgomery County in 1993 it snowed on Halloween, it coated the ground but not the roads. Probably around a half to 3/4 inch, but it snowed from mid late afternoon until 9 or 10 that night I remember. It took a long time for any to stick. I also vaguely remember 1969 Halloween, from what I remember I think most fell during the day of Halloween or the night before. I was only 5 but can remember us getting a measurable snowfall on or the day before Halloween. There was at least 2 or 3 inches or more on the grass on Halloween night. I can barely remember walking in the snow to get candy. Them are my only memories of snow in October in the Clarksville area. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 03, 2019, 05:06:09 PM
I am ready for early next week.  Mid 70's are going to feel like mid 50's after this horrendous heat wave. 

Side note: When was the last time it snowed in Tennessee in October (mountains don't count)?  I have lived here 23 years and best I can remember I have never seen snow in Dyersburg (NW TN) in October.  Have seen several snows before Mid November though.
Halloween 1993 it snowed 4 inches.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on October 03, 2019, 10:42:50 PM
I know in Montgomery County in 1993 it snowed on Halloween, it coated the ground but not the roads. Probably around a half to 3/4 inch, but it snowed from mid late afternoon until 9 or 10 that night I remember. It took a long time for any to stick. I also vaguely remember 1969 Halloween, from what I remember I think most fell during the day of Halloween or the night before. I was only 5 but can remember us getting a measurable snowfall on or the day before Halloween. There was at least 2 or 3 inches or more on the grass on Halloween night. I can barely remember walking in the snow to get candy. Them are my only memories of snow in October in the Clarksville area. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Yep, remember the 93 snow. Remember it spitting or flurrying a few times in October as well but it's rare we get accumulating snow.
Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on October 04, 2019, 01:24:49 AM
Itís hard to believe weíre in the month when we should expect our first frost and freeze. The prolonged summer makes that seem impossibly far removed.

Iím seeing at least one long range forecast that has mid 60s mid 40s for next weekend.

Having been locked into the mid and upper 90s for so long, that doesnít even compute (for me at least).

The next week may be the sharpest transition from summer to fall weíve seen in living memory.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on October 04, 2019, 04:42:28 AM
Itís hard to believe weíre in the month when we should expect our first frost and freeze. The prolonged summer makes that seem impossibly far removed.

Iím seeing at least one long range forecast that has mid 60s mid 40s for next weekend.

Having been locked into the mid and upper 90s for so long, that doesnít even compute (for me at least).

The next week may be the sharpest transition from summer to fall weíve seen in living memory.
must be looking at accuweather  long range lol... 
Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on October 04, 2019, 05:31:09 AM
must be looking at accuweather  long range lol...

Weather.com actually- but, I figured it was probably showing what the latest GFS operational was showing or something like that. Iím obviously skeptical of it but also recognize it could happen.

Low 70s/low 50s are a confident look in the nearer term early next week anyway. Mid 60s/mid 40s is only 5 degrees or so lower than that. Even OHX acknowledged a cooler shot next weekend in their AFD, so the look must have some legs under it... itís just outside of 7 days and canít be taken to the bank.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on October 04, 2019, 06:50:24 AM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on October 04, 2019, 07:22:05 AM
We hit 100 again yesterday. Absolutely shattered every October temperature record on the books. 5 days this year in the triple digits, with the hottest day being Sept 17 at 103. I think we are going to be at least 98 this afternoon as well. This will be the last place in the state to clear this weak front. Probably won't see any significant cooling until tonight.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on October 04, 2019, 07:56:32 AM
Itís hard to believe weíre in the month when we should expect our first frost and freeze. The prolonged summer makes that seem impossibly far removed.

Iím seeing at least one long range forecast that has mid 60s mid 40s for next weekend.

Having been locked into the mid and upper 90s for so long, that doesnít even compute (for me at least).

The next week may be the sharpest transition from summer to fall weíve seen in living memory.

I know Curt originally mentioned the MJO a couple weeks ago. It's been in our warm Phases (8 and 1) for fall and it doesn't look to progress anytime soon. Interestingly enough, in winter that is our cold phase. If we could get that in winter everyone would be complaining about the cold and no snow due to suppression.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Shocker0 on October 04, 2019, 08:34:10 AM
I am ready for early next week.  Mid 70's are going to feel like mid 50's after this horrendous heat wave. 

Side note: When was the last time it snowed in Tennessee in October (mountains don't count)?  I have lived here 23 years and best I can remember I have never seen snow in Dyersburg (NW TN) in October.  Have seen several snows before Mid November though.

We may count as "mountains" but in Crossville on Halloween night in 2014 it snowed 2-3 inches. It was really breezy too. The trees still were in middle of fall colors.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on October 04, 2019, 08:39:36 AM
I know Curt originally mentioned the MJO a couple weeks ago. It's been in our warm Phases (8 and 1) for fall and it doesn't look to progress anytime soon. Interestingly enough, in winter that is our cold phase. If we could get that in winter everyone would be complaining about the cold and no snow due to suppression.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif)

Someone correct me if I'm off, but towards the end of this run, phase line looks like it's b-lining towards phase 2. I imagine we're a few months away from phase 8/1 being an advantage to us so maybe this hints at a step in the right direction.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on October 04, 2019, 09:47:01 AM
We may count as "mountains" but in Crossville on Halloween night in 2014 it snowed 2-3 inches. It was really breezy too. The trees still were in middle of fall colors.
I remember that event. It snowed 5" in Columbia, SC and 2' on Mt. LeConte that night. November 2014 turned out to be incredibly cold, but that was followed by a warm December.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on October 04, 2019, 03:38:25 PM
Anchorage Alaska has gone 19 months in row with above average temps ... something ponder on...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on October 05, 2019, 12:53:02 PM
Fire risk is going to be pretty extreme today across East TN with these gusty winds. If we canít get some rain tonight, it will be tomorrow as well. Iím a little surprised to not see a red flag warning today.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on October 05, 2019, 06:15:50 PM
I have a High of 62 and Low of 38 in the forecast for my location next weekend.  That makes my soul smile.   

The 60s with clouds and rain on Monday will make us happy as well.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mamMATTus on October 05, 2019, 09:15:18 PM
Does anyone know if these showers and storms were modeled that have formed over southern middle/eastern TN?? I was definitely not expecting that.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 06, 2019, 10:38:33 AM
Halloween 1993 it snowed 4 inches.
That's about what we would have had if it had all stuck, but we must have had higher ground temp because it took forever before it started sticking. But we probably got close to a inch in a spot or 2 from what I remember. I guessed between a half and 3/4 inches for the most part here. But it was pretty.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on October 06, 2019, 07:26:45 PM
There's a 20-25 acre fire burning in Sevier County right now.  Let's hope it gets contained and we get enough rain in the next couple of days to kill this high fire danger.

https://www.wate.com/news/top-stories/small-brush-fire-in-sevierville-on-saturday/
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: NismoWx on October 06, 2019, 11:07:39 PM
I don't think anyone expected this...

I hate the radar no man's land out there. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191007/ff5489f69e6db723bfa5f6340a042c48.jpg)

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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on October 07, 2019, 07:13:47 AM
Anyone notice those cold fronts in the extended aren't getting as much push south and east as expected once it gets closer to verification? Really impressive ridging this fall.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on October 07, 2019, 08:45:04 AM
It's difficult to say just how nice it is to have cool weather and a steady rain settling in this morning  ::rain::

I hope the whole board gets to enjoy the change we've been waiting on for so long.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on October 07, 2019, 09:08:46 AM
Ding Dong,
The Witch is Dead,
The Witch is Dead
Ding Dong,
The Wicked Witch is Dead

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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on October 07, 2019, 09:43:24 AM
Ding Dong,
The Witch is Dead,
The Witch is Dead
Ding Dong,
The Wicked Witch is Dead

She ain't dead yet, but she's close. Still a few 80+ degree days left in the forecast.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on October 07, 2019, 11:42:44 AM
Anyone notice those cold fronts in the extended aren't getting as much push south and east as expected once it gets closer to verification? Really impressive ridging this fall.
yeah. Going be a lot of broken 💕 when i44 gets clobbered with snow storm after snow storm ... but whatís new lol
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 07, 2019, 12:11:18 PM
Never have really seen where a early snowpack to our north and west helped us during winter lately, but that has to be a pretty good early season snowpack being established in the Montana and parts of the Dakota's and Wyoming area. Does anybody keep up with what is normal or average snowpack for the west and northwest areas for this time of year? Does anyone have a take on how it affects our winter weather or if it does and under what conditions is it most likely to affect our winter weather chances? I have heard others talk about it before and it just seems to me it doesn't produce the impact that some advertise many times, hope I am wrong and I probably am. Comments and thoughts welcomed. If this belongs in winter thread my apologies in advance. ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2019, 01:27:56 PM
Never have really seen where a early snowpack to our north and west helped us during winter lately, but that has to be a pretty good early season snowpack being established in the Montana and parts of the Dakota's and Wyoming area. Does anybody keep up with what is normal or average snowpack for the west and northwest areas for this time of year? Does anyone have a take on how it affects our winter weather or if it does and under what conditions is it most likely to affect our winter weather chances? I have heard others talk about it before and it just seems to me it doesn't produce the impact that some advertise many times, hope I am wrong and I probably am. Comments and thoughts welcomed. If this belongs in winter thread my apologies in advance. ::popcorn::

I will say this I haven't seen that much action in that neck of the words this time of year since 2013 and 2014.  Whether it helps us out later probably can't be answered but what it does show is that we have a strong northern stream of the jet stream at work.   

Post Merge: October 07, 2019, 01:37:31 PM
[attachimg=1]

Take a moment to awe yourselves at this temperature drop that Montana is about to experience. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: joemomma on October 07, 2019, 01:57:38 PM
Impressive.  We've been watching the Kevin Costner Yellowstone show for the past couple of weeks.  ALMOST makes you want to move out West.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on October 07, 2019, 08:08:50 PM
The break in the heat is welcome, but this was a pitiful rain event. Less than 0.15Ē here. Still very concerned about fires as we go through the month.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 07, 2019, 09:13:12 PM
We got 2.5 inches here, much needed. Hope everyone cashes in soon.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on October 08, 2019, 07:34:21 AM
We got 2.5 inches here, much needed. Hope everyone cashes in soon.

Dickson county was a smash spot on Sunday (check Cocorahs). Finished with a hair under 4" with a max 3.83"/hour rate at one point. I'm sure future rain events will reach east TN as the month rolls along.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on October 08, 2019, 07:54:17 AM
A recurving Typhoon could make things more interesting for the Western/Central USA in the long-range.  The broad nature of possible trough may also be of interest to us as we go later in October. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on October 08, 2019, 07:58:58 AM
A recurving Typhoon could make things more interesting for the Western/Central USA in the long-range.  The broad nature of possible trough may also be of interest to us as we go later in October.
hear you ... Iím so ready for a deep slp carved out in the souther. Plains around 985mb running through central Missouri ... with quality deep moisture out ahead of the frontal boundary ... ::whistling::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Eric on October 08, 2019, 11:34:03 AM
hear you ... Iím so ready for a deep slp carved out in the souther. Plains around 985mb running through central Missouri ... with quality deep moisture out ahead of the frontal boundary ... ::whistling::

Had to read this three times before it finally clicked.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on October 08, 2019, 05:52:25 PM
She ain't dead yet, but she's close. Still a few 80+ degree days left in the forecast.
Meanwhile, there are areas in the upper Midwest (not mountains) that will likely pick up more snow in one early October storm than we'll pick up all winter.

How that happens amazes me.

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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: mempho on October 08, 2019, 05:58:40 PM


hear you ... Iím so ready for a deep slp carved out in the souther. Plains around 985mb running through central Mississippi ... with quality deep moisture out ahead of the frontal boundary ... ::whistling::

FYP


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Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on October 08, 2019, 06:59:25 PM
The longer-range looks kinda battleground ish.  The ridge won't go away but we have a vigorous northern stream and associated systems chomping at the bits to our northwest.  We may get some gulf moisture as well which will help those who really need the rain.

After a solid 2 inches of rain plus a surprise, 1 inch of rain at the end of September may yard is back to green and is growing again.  If the rains continue I may have to even mow it. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: joemomma on October 09, 2019, 08:04:56 AM
I'm holding off making my final mow of the year as long as I can.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on October 09, 2019, 08:23:19 AM
It wonít be long now...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on October 09, 2019, 10:25:10 AM
It wonít be long now...

...until... what exactly?
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Greyhound on October 09, 2019, 10:35:50 AM
...until... what exactly?

Grammar Lessons?
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Eric on October 09, 2019, 11:36:08 AM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/voOhKPgzYsyPu/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on October 09, 2019, 01:07:28 PM
The crashing -SOI has doomed any threat of a La Nina emerging this fall or winter.   

It is looking now like a Warm Neutral with even a shot at a late-blooming Nino like 2014-15.  Quite a swing in the ENSO department
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 09, 2019, 03:34:27 PM
Me and my mowing partner have 63 yards in Montgomery County and we are still cutting but it has slowed down. We have about 30-35 yards that I imagine will get mowed at least 2 more times a few maybe 3, we have another 28-30 yards that will probably need it just one more time. But that is not counting getting leaves up for my customers that usually gets me through most of November and some years even into the first week of December.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: joemomma on October 10, 2019, 08:19:58 AM
Are we locked in on this cooler pattern at this point?
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2019, 08:21:01 AM
https://www.winterparkresort.com/the-mountain/mountain-cams
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on October 10, 2019, 12:45:59 PM
We made it, folks. We all survived the epic torchfest of 2019.

I hope you all are enjoying the nice weather!
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on October 11, 2019, 07:31:21 AM
Are we locked in on this cooler pattern at this point?

No. Cooler than 90s yes but we will mostly stay at or above avg according to long range Euro.

This ridge just won't die. Also the MJO will stay in our warm phases through most of fall. Almost unheard of. About as bad a hand as mother nature could of dealt us this fall.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: joemomma on October 11, 2019, 08:14:34 AM
Well I can deal with slightly above normal, but the 90s I'm done with. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on October 11, 2019, 08:24:59 AM
No. Cooler than 90s yes but we will mostly stay at or above avg according to long range Euro.

This ridge just won't die. Also the MJO will stay in our warm phases through most of fall. Almost unheard of. About as bad a hand as mother nature could of dealt us this fall.
well spoken... mjo isnít moving
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: TNHunter on October 11, 2019, 09:22:12 AM
Not sure what yíall are complaining about. Weather looks great here on out. Multiple days of highs in the 60s, several in the mid 70s and some lows in the 30ís with most in the upper 40ís to mid 50ís. Perfect year round weather!
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on October 11, 2019, 09:30:02 AM
well spoken... mjo isnít moving

Not the greatest at reading these, but it looks like this may creep back to the COD or move into phase 2? Short term...definitely 1. I still think the month's second-half finishes near average temp-wise.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on October 11, 2019, 01:57:58 PM
Due to our crazy ridging, the West is basically already in Winter. Hope they save some for us.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on October 11, 2019, 04:55:29 PM
57 in Hopkinsville but in the Dale Hollow Region in the KY/TN border near Celina it is in the 80s.

Tomorrow will feel like November and that will feel amazing.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Flash on October 11, 2019, 10:40:37 PM
At my location, it was 82 around 3, 69.5 at 6:30. 54 at 8. Now sitting at 49. What a front!
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 12, 2019, 06:41:44 AM
I really was not expecting it but we have frost on roofs this morning. This is gonna be the nicest weekend weíve had in forever.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: TNHunter on October 12, 2019, 04:51:30 PM
I really was not expecting it but we have frost on roofs this morning. This is gonna be the nicest weekend weíve had in forever.

Yep saw most the houses around mine had frost on the roof. Also have heard several groups of specklebellies going over
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Beth on October 12, 2019, 09:09:38 PM
We left Orange Beach yesterday morning with temp around 80. Spent the night with my brother in North Bama last night and woke up to some chilly weather this morn.  We only had short sleeves and shorts on. Had to warm up the truck before we got in as it was COLD!  Weather was wonderful all week in OB.  Hated to leave.  :) 8) ::cold::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JHart on October 13, 2019, 06:33:49 AM
Our temperature reached 31F in the creek bottom near the house.  Widespread slushy frost on rooftops and grass.  The grass surprised me since the ground is still so warm, but it probably helped that I haven't mowed in five weeks.   ::guitar::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on October 13, 2019, 07:30:14 AM
We have frost in Nolensville!

I think temps undercut forecast lows by a few degrees.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on October 13, 2019, 11:50:15 AM
A few folks ended up with a freeze.  32F at Lewisburg and Ft. Campbell and 29F at Crossville.   

We have a system next weekend that we may want to keep a close eye on.  I don't want to say anything more since it is about 1 week away and we know how fast things can change.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on October 13, 2019, 12:58:59 PM
We have a system next weekend that we may want to keep a close eye on.  I don't want to say anything more since it is about 1 week away and we know how fast things can change.
StormNine calling for a severe outbreak followed by accumulating snow.  ::yum:: Book it. ::rofl::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on October 13, 2019, 01:27:06 PM
A few folks ended up with a freeze.  32F at Lewisburg and Ft. Campbell and 29F at Crossville.   

We have a system next weekend that we may want to keep a close eye on.  I don't want to say anything more since it is about 1 week away and we know how fast things can change.
agree ...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on October 13, 2019, 06:46:24 PM
StormNine calling for a severe outbreak followed by accumulating snow.  ::yum:: Book it. ::rofl::

One of those has a higher probability than the other  8).   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on October 13, 2019, 08:50:34 PM
Never saw a drop of rain from this weekends front. Looks like the system mid week will miss to the south. We will be in D4 shortly if things donít improve. Wettest winter and spring ever to severe drought in a matter of a few months. Other than a quick inch from a thundershower in mid September, I havenít had any appreciable rain since mid August.
Title: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on October 13, 2019, 09:04:13 PM
Never saw a drop of rain from this weekends front. Looks like the system mid week will miss to the south. We will be in D4 shortly if things donít improve. Wettest winter and spring ever to severe drought in a matter of a few months. Other than a quick inch from a thundershower in mid September, I havenít had any appreciable rain since mid August.

Crazy times for sure. Memphis had its warmest September (like most) and itís 3rd driest September to boot. Add to that September was the 6th driest month on record- period.

And now- October is about to enter into the top 10 wettest Octoberís on record. Looks like some ups and downs over the next couples of weeks before a true below normal temp pattern sets in for the last week of October. Precip patterns are going to change too with much increased precip over the whole area.