Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: cgauxknox on August 04, 2019, 11:31:09 AM

Title: Fall 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on August 04, 2019, 11:31:09 AM
Since we've already jumped into the winter forum I want to give us a chance to discuss the beautiful season that comes before  ::yum::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Crockett on August 04, 2019, 11:52:19 AM
When I think of fall, I think of crisp days with brilliant blue skies and a light breeze...apple cider and a smoker jam-packed with meats. It's been a while since we've had a true fall, wall to wall. Last year wasn't terrible once we got into the second half of October, but the first half of October was miserable and there were some warm stretches all the way through November. Obviously Fall 2017 was significantly warm, and Fall 2016 was almost miserably hot. Fall 2015 featured more above-average temperatures than not, and Fall 2014 had record-setting heat into the end of October.

We actually had a spring this year...hopefully we'll have a real fall as well.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on August 04, 2019, 11:56:45 AM
football, hay rides and fall severe makes my fall season ::guitar::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on August 04, 2019, 01:11:09 PM
Since we've already jumped into the winter forum I want to give us a chance to discuss the beautiful season that comes before  ::yum::
Ah yes . . . the best 2 weeks of the year.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on August 04, 2019, 01:17:22 PM
We actually had a spring this year...hopefully we'll have a real fall as well.
I have the same hopes.  I'd like a nice, long stretch of those great fall days where you need a jacket in the mornings and evenings but it's warm and sunny enough for just shirtsleeves during the day.  In terms of weather that's my favorite time of year, and when you add in college football, rich stews and homemade breads for dinner, and all the great color a real fall season makes for wonderful times leading into the holidays.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on August 04, 2019, 02:35:47 PM
Autumn has largely disappeared in the last decade.  It seems "fall" is now regulated to the first few weeks before Christmas. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 04, 2019, 03:17:47 PM
Autumn has largely disappeared in the last decade.  It seems "fall" is now regulated to the first few weeks before Christmas.
Maybe we can get a normal fall this year. We had a normal spring for the first time in forever.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on August 04, 2019, 04:15:15 PM
Here on the KY/TN border in the late 90s/early 00s our September Average High was 82F and October was 71 or 72F.

Now it is 85F/75F respectively.  Probably because of the switch from 1961-2000 and 1970-2010 data versus 1981-2010 data.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on August 04, 2019, 05:10:42 PM
Maybe we can get a normal fall this year. We had a normal spring for the first time in forever.

It would be awesome to have an October with highs in the 60's-70's and lows in the 40's for a change.  To me, that is fall in the Mid-south and Southern Apps.  Well, at least the fall I fondly remember. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on August 04, 2019, 06:15:24 PM
Here on the KY/TN border in the late 90s/early 00s our September Average High was 82F and October was 71 or 72F.

Now it is 85F/75F respectively.  Probably because of the switch from 1961-2000 and 1970-2010 data versus 1981-2010 data.
climate change ?...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on August 04, 2019, 06:56:10 PM
climate change ?...

Probably a mix of climate change, urban heat island effect (the area around Ft. Campbell where the measurements were taken has seen a lot of development),  and that we had some pretty cool years in the 60s and 70s.  Even versus the 90s our heat ridges seem to last a bit longer and have a bit more bite since the mid 2000s. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: JayCee on August 05, 2019, 05:23:12 AM
Considering the strong heat ridges and record heat associated with them in Alaska and Europe, the lower 48 states have been fortunate this summer.  Our worst heat wave occurred in late May into June (outside of astronomical summer).  Even Texas has escaped the normal summer death ridge so far this year.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on August 14, 2019, 10:33:14 PM
The heat overall this summer hasn't been that bad. I say it's been cooler than the last few years as far as super hot days. Even on a lot of days when we have had a lot of humidity we have either had a breeze or plenty of clouds or both. The climate has been changing since the beginning of time, man don't know it's reason. We may be in for a cool down as much as we may be rising. Only God knows, man doesn't have a clue. Just my thoughts sorry for the rambling. Can't wait for fall and of course bring on winter. But for now, got to get all the grass cutting in I can. Need another rain soon here in Montgomery County, the western part of town has missed the last few rounds of weather. It's been a great year for mowing so far, need it to continue.  ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::rain::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on August 17, 2019, 04:57:27 PM
[attachimg=1]

September 2007-2018 has been warmer than the 1950-2007 average across 99% of the USA.   

September 2019 looks to be more of the same unless something tropical happens in the early to mid part of the month to change that.   
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Matthew on August 17, 2019, 09:17:31 PM
As long as fall break is perfect wx I will be happy.  To the beach then a soccer tournament in Pensacola.  🤞🏻
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on August 18, 2019, 08:55:03 AM
If I had to guess I would say we will probably be around +2.5 to +3 above the 1950-2007 average for September which is probably just a hair above the 1981-2010 average.   

One constant thing that is showing up in the long term and has been a thing for most of the summer is that most of the area (minus far East TN) has been in weakness between two ridges.  Which has allowed for cooler air to save us. Not as warm as 2018 or probably even 2007 but still warmer than average is the best call.

If we can at least have around an average October and November I would be okay with that.  November is actually the only month that has been solidly below average for our area this decade. 
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Crockett on August 19, 2019, 12:04:54 PM
I see the heat is taking a toll on us.  ::hot::
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on August 19, 2019, 02:16:23 PM
Extended Euro looks decent for this time of year. Nice eastern trough should keep things reasonable.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on August 19, 2019, 04:19:25 PM
First ďbigĒ cool down with low temps well down into the 50ís making the horizon on the GFS as well. Although to be honest- we had mid 50ís several times in July. At least this is a sign the heat is peaking.

Last 90 days of temps in CDAS. That cold pool which has been present out west and in the plains is still there this summer.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190819/cb0914feb25a62774a52ce2dcaa6a2b1.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on August 20, 2019, 08:47:16 AM
Just a thought...can we actually discuss the actual weather pattern and leave the climate change opinions and banter for another thread?
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on August 20, 2019, 08:55:02 AM
Just a thought...can we actually discuss the actual weather pattern and leave the climate change opinions and banter for another thread?
agree ... think the pattern is just to boring to discuss at the moment... lol
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on August 20, 2019, 09:22:20 AM
agree ... think the pattern is just to boring to discuss at the moment... lol

Fall isnít actually here ďat the momentĒ. Itís a thread to discuss possible long range weather patterns as meteorological fall starts September 1.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on August 20, 2019, 09:32:09 AM
Just a thought...can we actually discuss the actual weather pattern and leave the climate change opinions and banter for another thread?

I wouldn't have a problem with that. But the banter was here, so I jumped into the discussion.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: snowdog on August 20, 2019, 09:56:08 AM
I created a Climate Thread for the appropriate posts and moved them there.

Back to Fall 2019....
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 20, 2019, 05:05:07 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on August 20, 2019, 06:24:27 PM
(Attachment Link)
thats the problem ... getting that look at mid late August does us no good... outlook like that wonít be found in mid January book it...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 20, 2019, 06:43:47 PM
thats the problem ... getting that look at mid late August does us no good... outlook like that wonít be found in mid January book it...
While I agree that is a perfect look for winter, I could care less about January right now. My body feels like it is on fire everyday when I come in. I work outside everyday.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on August 20, 2019, 07:11:04 PM
While I agree that is a perfect look for winter, I could care less about January right now. My body feels like it is on fire everyday when I come in. I work outside everyday.
yeah agree... my job also outside least 95 percent time
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on August 21, 2019, 09:32:14 AM
My body feels like it is on fire everyday when I come in. I work outside everyday.

Ditto.

I'm in construction right now. These past two weeks have been awful.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: joemomma on August 21, 2019, 12:59:22 PM
Yup, being outside for any length of time is downright miserable.  I've lived here my whole life (40+ years) and never remember it being this miserable.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on August 21, 2019, 01:24:53 PM
As tough as it is outside during the day I am at least feeling those first hints that fall is coming.  Several of our evenings in Knoxville have been better than they are in the heart of summer and I'm noticing an occasional cool breeze even during the middle of the day.  It's still insanely hot most days, but those little teases of good weather are there if you watch for them. 

I also admit that it's very easy for me to say this as I earn a living at a desk, but I've been helping a friend build his house and have spent some long days working on his deck, or worse, doing work inside his still unpowered house with no A/C and no air moving at all.  Much respect to all of you that are out in this heat 40+ hours a week doing the work that keeps the world running for the rest of us.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: TNHunter on August 21, 2019, 01:25:54 PM
Maybe I am just crazy but I think it hasn't been that bad.  I don't know how this summer compares to past statistically but it has felt cooler than normal to me.  Haven't had any extensive heat outbreaks and plenty of moisture.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on August 21, 2019, 02:04:43 PM
Yup, being outside for any length of time is downright miserable.  I've lived here my whole life (40+ years) and never remember it being this miserable.

August 2007 was much worse IMO

But this stretch of heat is up there on the charts. I'm feeling the heat much more working construction at 22 than I was playing football in the heat at 10.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: joemomma on August 21, 2019, 02:19:44 PM
I was inside much more in '07 than I am now.  My new job requires a good bit of walking between buildings outside, and I'm certainly feeling it.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: BRUCE on August 21, 2019, 02:29:24 PM
Maybe I am just crazy but I think it hasn't been that bad.  I don't know how this summer compares to past statistically but it has felt cooler than normal to me.  Haven't had any extensive heat outbreaks and plenty of moisture.
guess we are just getting used to it...
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on August 21, 2019, 03:22:07 PM
This Summer has been statistically normal. Nothing out of the ordinary. We normally have a week or 2 of peak heat which is where itís been. We havenít had a summer which I consider ridiculous in quite some time - with a steady stream of 100ís day after with no relief. The heat this year gets beat back about the time itís trying to get solid. Having numerous nights in June and July in the 50ís- including one morning in July where steam came off the pool like a Fall morning- there are no complaints from me. The colder temps this year as was all winter are just off to our northwest. Theyíve had record cold most of the year. Itís called balance.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on August 21, 2019, 06:44:38 PM
We have had a fairly steady round of heat the last few weeks.  SE TN even hit 100F.  With that being said August 2007 and Late July/August 2010 were much much worse.  I actually think 2010 may have even been worse than 2007 because the 2010 heatwave had high humidity and lows in the 80s for several days whereas the 2007 one was just really high temperatures for a really long time, like pretty much till the October 18th tornado outbreak that year stopped it.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: Curt on August 22, 2019, 10:52:27 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190822/8fbd384e51aee777f3823994577d7840.jpg)

Gfs 2m temps next weekend.
Title: Re: Fall 2019
Post by: StormNine on August 22, 2019, 05:25:18 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190822/8fbd384e51aee777f3823994577d7840.jpg)

Gfs 2m temps next weekend.

That is a perfect way to start College Football Season.