Post by: Curt on August 02, 2019, 04:37:03 PM
ENSO- on the way to neutral
PDO- positive with possible large warm pool in NE pacific
QBO- currently very positive but has peaked and should see deceasing through fall and winter
NAO- it’s been negative all summer but who knows
Sun- we are nearing the solar minimum and in the quietist period nearing record books
Bruce- SER and lots of severe
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/26687211a25679b281d3a33038ccf322.jpg)
Canadian Seasonal Temps
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/52206ea700a8cd633f95bc83636a2e51.jpg)
CFS2
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/063a1ae4691dd209c7fac1ac3938b79d.jpg)
Last year’s CFS2 at this time
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/75cb32810924484abaa10fe7a1a6413b.jpg)
Actuality. As much as it nailed it in the southeast, it sucked in the plains.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 02, 2019, 05:03:01 PM
Post by: mamMATTus on August 02, 2019, 08:19:06 PM
Post by: Matthew on August 02, 2019, 09:20:40 PM
Post by: Charles L. on August 03, 2019, 07:39:30 AM
Post by: BRUCE on August 03, 2019, 07:49:32 AM
I mean, this winter can’t be any worse than last years...so that is already a positive.not quite so sure on that.... lol
Post by: Charles L. on August 03, 2019, 08:50:23 AM
not quite so sure on that.... lol
I didn’t even see an inch of snow total. Only noticeable event was the 1/4” ice accretion we received on Dec 9th
Post by: StormNine on August 03, 2019, 09:00:25 AM
Other than that with a likely Neutral ENSO for 2019-20 the possibilities are pretty endless. A Neutral ENSO only means that the ENSO will not play a role in the winter. Which means that other factors like PNA, MJO, etc. will be an even greater role than normal.
I think the QBO may be the index to really watch this winter. If it still is raging positive then you have to contend with another fast-moving/active jet stream that will make it harder for cold air to settle in place and also produce a setup that can feature even more flooding as storms attack nearly relentlessly.
After the QBO it is all about either MJO (which I found out last winter sometimes is connected to our pattern and sometimes is not). Last year when the MJO was favorable (Phase 8) it wasn't connected to our pattern but it certainly was connected when it was in crappy Phase 5 and 6 (funny how that works). Then it is the PNA which went hard negative in February and caused Montana to have a Fab Feb instead of us.
Post Merge: August 03, 2019, 09:09:37 AM
I would actually lean towards a pretty warm Canada/USA as a whole this upcoming winter. El Nino's tend to scour out the cold air and the Northern Plains has had 3 straight winters of below-average which in a warming world is kinda odd.
I think this is the winter where North Dakota and Montana get quite warm. That means that our area unless we have a solid -NAO will probably be mild as well but if the core of the riding is to our northwest then we could sneak in some ULL's or even a Miller A bomb. I would like to see the Atlantic Ocean cool a bit so that we can temper the SE Ridge at times.
My gut at this time is like +1 to +3 winter for us but a +5 for North Dakota with no significant below average regions in much of the US or Canada. With below average to average snowfall for our region. A lot of the areas that did well last winter I think will take a big step back this winter in snowfall.
Post by: Matthew on August 03, 2019, 09:54:31 AM
Post by: Nash_LSU on August 03, 2019, 10:43:34 AM
Here's my forecast: Another bust.
Really going out on a limb with that forecast. ;)
But for real, the past few winters have been so demoralizing. Bust after bust after bust.
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2019, 10:48:17 AM
Post by: Curt on August 03, 2019, 10:52:39 AM
Post by: Matthew on August 03, 2019, 01:32:40 PM
come christmas time... see se ridge develop... look for big svr. Outbreak.... word on street. Is that... jan feb more tornados plus svr potential... see big trough & se ridge develop... on feb 8 2020...
I predict another bust!
Just messing with you Bruce!
One thing I predict will happen more than once is I44 Will get its big snows and we will get cold rain!! Bet on it!
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2019, 03:55:06 PM
I predict another bust!
Just messing with you Bruce!
One thing I predict will happen more than once is I44 Will get its big snows and we will get cold rain!! Bet on it!
seen that happen... already we can see se ridge setup.... i44 get the winter wx. While se torches... expect lots of severe wx... in our area
Post by: Matthew on August 03, 2019, 06:30:52 PM
Post by: JayCee on August 04, 2019, 07:04:07 AM
Post by: snowdog on August 05, 2019, 09:35:51 AM
Other than that with a likely Neutral ENSO for 2019-20 the possibilities are pretty endless. A Neutral ENSO only means that the ENSO will not play a role in the winter. Which means that other factors like PNA, MJO, etc. will be an even greater role than normal.
Due to the low solar activity (we are between cycles from 24 to 25), we should see an active polar jet. The last winter that was between cycles was 2009/2010, and it was an unusually cold/stormy winter.
Post by: bugalou on August 08, 2019, 05:09:55 PM
Post Merge: August 08, 2019, 05:13:30 PM
Well I am getting where I don’t like cold anymore. I love snow but seems all we get here is cold and dry or cold rain. So a mild in the 50’s winter let it be or let’s just keep fall like wx thru winter.
I will permaban you for this type of crazy talk. Watch your mouth. ::shaking_finger:: ::rofl::
(I am kidding for those of you sarcasm deficient)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 09, 2019, 07:41:30 AM
Post by: mamMATTus on August 09, 2019, 12:37:51 PM
Let me flip a coin, then another and another. We have been talking about this for 10 years. When it comes down to it, Winter Wx is very local and is usually not widespread when it comes to moderate accumulations. My point being? We can have all the signs for a good Winter then have a good winter but for who? One in Nashville may say it was horrible while everyone around us had a epic winter.... Its fun to talk about, but events are too localized to make any assumptions any year.
You nailed it. Last year was the last for getting my hopes up about any winter weather in TN. It’s a complete luck of the draw. When it’s physically falling through the atmosphere, I’ll believe it. Not buying into anymore more models or winterwx forecasts.
Post by: snowdog on August 09, 2019, 05:19:49 PM
So, with that said, this is our year. 14+" of pure white powdery crystalized goodness.
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2019, 07:26:21 PM
After '09-10, I thought we might be turning a corner. And, indeed, we had many "better" winters from 2009 until 2015, with a few duds in the mix. But, overall, we definitely had some colder weather, and experienced our first sub-zero temperatures since 1994 for many of us. But then our Super-Nino developed in late 2015, and it caused our winters to revert to pre-2009 style with few Arctic intrusions this far south.
So, after the last 3 winters that produced little, and especially after the last one--the winter with so much promise that gave us nothing, I'm indifferent. Numb. I don't feel anything except the dread of losing hours of daylight, and enduring multiple 35 degree rainy days.
Post by: schneitzeit on August 09, 2019, 08:04:44 PM
Post by: Drifter49 on August 09, 2019, 08:33:43 PM
It's August and we're already complaining ::rofl::
That’s how we roll
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: JayCee on August 10, 2019, 07:05:13 AM
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2019, 09:49:50 AM
Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February.
It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW. That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it.
Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter. A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.
Post by: BRUCE on August 11, 2019, 12:41:25 PM
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0:D 8)....keep on preaching brother... ::fingerscrossed::
Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February.
It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW. That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it.
Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter. A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.
Post by: bugalou on August 11, 2019, 02:03:33 PM
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0
Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February.
It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW. That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it.
Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter. A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.
Honestly doesn't sound half bad for those of us in the west of the state. Memphis has picked up some pretty great winter events from bowling ball lows cutting off around the 4 corners and drifting east eventually. Who needs a cold air source when you can just produce your own dynamically via a combination of low sun angle, short daylight, and adiabatic processes. I honestly can't even remember a 5+ inch snow event here in the past 20 years that didn't happen with temps at 31/32 degrees during the duration of the event.
This doesn't really bode well for though of you east of Jackson though. ::doh::
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2019, 03:25:57 PM
Honestly doesn't sound half bad for those of us in the west of the state. Memphis has picked up some pretty great winter events from bowling ball lows cutting off around the 4 corners and drifting east eventually. Who needs a cold air source when you can just produce your own dynamically via a combination of low sun angle, short daylight, and adiabatic processes. I honestly can't even remember a 5+ inch snow event here in the past 20 years that didn't happen with temps at 31/32 degrees during the duration of the event.
This doesn't really bode well for though of you east of Jackson though. ::doh::
2005-06 is what came to mind looking at the monthlies. It had that similar look and that winter allowed for Memphis to score a moderate snow event while Middle TN into Central KY got the I-65 warm nose.
Take the monthlies with a grain of the world's finest salt. I reminder this time last year we were salivating over them because they showed the goods while torching the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Post by: JayCee on August 11, 2019, 06:42:28 PM
In my youth, I remember August was the month I would get "pumped" about the coming winter. I would re-read my NWS pamphlets and flyers about winter storms that I had collected over the years. I would gaze at the U.S. map hanging on my bedroom wall behind it's plexiglass protection, and draw hypothetical winter storms while fantasizing about the "big one" hitting in the coming months.
Oh, to be young again, and not living in a greenhouse world. It's just hard to get excited about winter anymore.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 11, 2019, 08:35:41 PM
Post by: snowdog on August 12, 2019, 07:35:37 AM
Just have to wait our turn.
Post by: JayCee on August 12, 2019, 07:46:25 AM
People bemoaning a warming planet forget that places around of us have seen record or close to record cold and snow. Last year it was the upper Midwest. A few years ago it was the upper Ohio Valley.
Just have to wait our turn.
Better hurry. I'm not gettin' any younger here. :laugh:
Post by: Drifter49 on August 12, 2019, 07:47:20 AM
Better hurry. I'm not gettin' any younger here. :laugh:
I’m right there with ya!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: BRUCE on August 12, 2019, 09:11:14 AM
People bemoaning a warming planet forget that places around of us have seen record or close to record cold and snow. Last year it was the upper Midwest. A few years ago it was the upper Ohio Valley.yeah... big ice glaciers melting at record pace up in anartic regions... think our turn done passed us by ... the 70s and early mid 80s was our turn...
Just have to wait our turn.
Post by: Crockett on August 12, 2019, 09:52:57 AM
yeah... big ice glaciers melting at record pace up in anartic regions... think our turn done passed us by ... the 70s and early mid 80s was our turn...
::shrug::
Post by: Curt on August 12, 2019, 06:23:52 PM
::shrug::
Truth over facts.
Post by: BRUCE on August 12, 2019, 07:57:39 PM
Truth over facts.that is the truth... lol
Post by: Curt on August 12, 2019, 08:15:06 PM
that is the truth... lol
Touché.
Post by: snowdog on August 13, 2019, 07:12:22 AM
yeah... big ice glaciers melting at record pace up in anartic regions... think our turn done passed us by ... the 70s and early mid 80s was our turn...
Glaciers are melting in "Anartic"?
Post by: Curt on August 13, 2019, 11:20:47 AM
Post by: JayCee on August 18, 2019, 07:09:52 AM
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020 (https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020)
Of course, earlier in this decade, the eastern U.S. was the one cold anomaly during multiple mostly warm winters globally. So, anything is possible.
More noteworthy to me is that we're already upon 2020. Wow, where did this decade go??
Post by: BRUCE on August 18, 2019, 07:20:51 AM
If one is to believe most of the winter outlooks now appearing on YouTube, then a truly epic winter it will be. ::)::sleeping::
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020 (https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020)
Of course, earlier in this decade, the eastern U.S. was the one cold anomaly during multiple mostly warm winters globally. So, anything is possible.
More noteworthy to me is that we're already upon 2020. Wow, where did this decade go??
Post by: JayCee on August 18, 2019, 07:49:57 AM
::sleeping:: ::sleeping:: ::sleeping::
Yeah, I think the bears have the right idea. They sleep through it, too.
Post by: StormNine on August 18, 2019, 08:45:06 AM
As we saw last winter ENSO (especially weaker events) plays a pretty small role. The subtropical jet was the only El-Nino thing that happened last winter.
Post by: Flash on August 22, 2019, 07:47:15 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on August 22, 2019, 08:24:34 AM
Post by: StormNine on August 22, 2019, 05:23:12 PM
This is likely a function of flawed memory, but outside of 2015-16, it does seem ENSO played a bigger role in the last decade's winters than this decade. Seems the last three, in particular, have been a tutorial on what derails ENSO on being a driving factor. If you matrix out the teleconnections since 2000, my guess would be you'd have more agreeing patterns (lining up one way or another to good winter/bad winter) early on...and more conflicting patterns (higher bustable winter forecast %) the closer you get to present.
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.
Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.
Post by: Curt on August 23, 2019, 07:16:23 AM
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.
Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.
Post by: Curt on August 23, 2019, 07:51:46 AM
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.
Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190823/ad269462af12078d1177d132095b78c9.jpg)
Post by: snowdog on August 23, 2019, 10:44:06 AM
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190823/ad269462af12078d1177d132095b78c9.jpg)
Interesting to compare Northern and Southern Hemisphere SSTs.
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 24, 2019, 09:06:32 PM
Post by: Charles L. on August 25, 2019, 07:52:58 AM
Its almost time for the snow to start falling. Already signs above 10k feet that fall is coming.
I. Am. Ready.
Post by: StormNine on August 25, 2019, 10:34:17 AM
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190823/ad269462af12078d1177d132095b78c9.jpg)
If that stays I would look for a -EPO, +PNA, +PDO, +NAO, and +AO pattern.
The CFS2 now is on board that we will cool enough for a Weak La Nina episode or at least a Cool Neutral that is borderline. That could create a variety of conditions that range from jet stream rising into Canada and causing winter death in Southern Canada and the USA with the murder weapon being zonal flow or if the EPO and PNA are strong enough it can be enough to send occasional troughs into the Central and perhaps Eastern USA (think our current pattern this summer).
Current Analogs (which bombed and went fail mode last year):
1952-53
1983-84
1995-96
2005-06
2017-18
If things go right in a +PNA/-EPO mixed with +NAO then 2013-14 would be a decent secondary analog just based on that.
With this pattern, we may be looking at least a decent severe weather/tornado threat or two during the November-Early March timeframe.
Post by: mamMATTus on August 27, 2019, 01:00:39 PM
Can you feel the hype and disappointment already?
Post by: cgauxknox on August 27, 2019, 02:36:18 PM
Here’s this year’s nickname for Winter 2019-2020: Polar Coaster.::snowman:: ::cold:: ::drowning:: ::blowup:: ::panic:: ::twister:: ::blowtorch::
Can you feel the hype and disappointment already?
Post by: snowdog on August 27, 2019, 04:23:23 PM
Here’s this year’s nickname for Winter 2019-2020: Polar Coaster.
Can you feel the hype and disappointment already?
Some of our posters need to stock up on Dramamine.
Post by: BRUCE on August 27, 2019, 05:46:56 PM
Some of our posters need to stock up on Dramamine.they may need something stronger than that... ;)
Post by: Greyhound on August 28, 2019, 10:23:27 AM
Some of our posters need to stock up on Dramamine.
More like Prozac, Xanax and Jack Daniels
Post by: schneitzeit on August 28, 2019, 01:17:29 PM
Post by: joemomma on August 28, 2019, 03:44:22 PM
Might snow, might not.
Might be cold, might not.
Honestly, we don't know what it's going to be doing much more than 3 days from now, let alone 3 months. Sure, we can look at trends and connections, but even those have failed us over the past couple of years. Last year had all the players on the field (that we know of), but they didn't show up to the same game at the same time for most of us. Sure, there were some that cashed in, but most of us didn't get to see much.
In the meantime, it's fun to track and *hopefully* get to cash in at some point.
Post by: StormNine on September 02, 2019, 09:25:05 AM
After that sour taste that last winter left in my mouth where the exact opposite and I mean exact occurred than what is expected I have decided to stick my neck out again this winter.
This winter is a bit fun because you have a variety of outlooks that range from Winter Cancel to Polar Coaster, mostly because there really isn't a strong ENSO signal or even a strong like I think the PNA will absolutely be + like you see in some winters.
This outlook assumes the following: A very weak -ENSO (around -0.5 to -0.7C), + NAO (but not as a much as previous winters because the Atlantic isn't quite as warm as last year), + AO, +PDO, +PNA, and solidly +QBO with a semi active Northern Stream. There will also be times where zonal or semizonal flow will keep much of the colder air locked in the poles.
Analogs used were a mix of 1952-53, 2005-06, and 2017-18, but also the overall pattern of this summer so far was taken into consideration.
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: snowdog on September 02, 2019, 11:20:01 AM
However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.
Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.
Post by: Curt on September 04, 2019, 02:58:24 PM
-Plenty of potential for a severe winter.
-East will have to overcome early warmth.
-SST analogs are amazingly close to a blend of 2013-14 and 2014-15.
-Warm northeastern Pacific and cooler Nino1+2 usually a great cold signal.
-Snowfall should be generous.
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: BRUCE on September 04, 2019, 08:33:59 PM
Post by: Curt on September 04, 2019, 08:34:54 PM
CSFV2 model ... ::blowtorch:: this December January February thus far...
Yep. And it was in 2013-14 and 2014-15 both of which had a warm northeast pacific. If the CFS2 is your argument on Sept 1 for warm or cold...you better try again.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/643a7af5bfb9b01933789dd68b86da88.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/40a7409616136da7bf8e2e7ef7a9ae07.jpg)
Post by: BRUCE on September 04, 2019, 10:27:41 PM
Yep. And it was in 2013-14 and 2014-15 both of which had a warm northeast pacific. If the CFS2 is your argument on Sept 1 for warm or cold...you better try again.dont shoot the messenger ... wo... lighten up there Francis ... just stating what model shows...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/643a7af5bfb9b01933789dd68b86da88.jpg)[img width=600 height=452]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/40a7409616136da7bf8e2e7ef7a9ae07.jpg]
Post by: Curt on September 05, 2019, 07:16:12 AM
dont shoot the messenger ... wo... lighten up there Francis ... just stating what model shows...
I’m just having fun poking holes
which let face it- isn’t that hard.
Post by: snowdog on September 24, 2019, 07:05:28 AM
Post by: mempho on October 06, 2019, 06:04:21 AM
I've started to look more into solar forcings. I find it interesting. As I stated earlier, we are in between solar cycles which leads to a Polar Coaster type setup (active polar jet).We also had very low solar activity throughout the cycle, so this is the first time we've observed a minimum after a low max cycle.
However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.
Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Post by: StormNine on October 06, 2019, 08:45:44 PM
1952-53
2005-06
2013-14
2014-15
2017-18
I would consider a mix of 2005-06 and 2013-14 to be the primary. Not as warm as 2005-06 but not as cold as 2013-14 somewhere in the middle.
Other factors I am looking at are
- Sea Level Temps and a possible +PNA/+NAO combo
- The Neutral ENSO that may act both like a Nina and a Nino at times
- Very active Northern Stream that we already saw with the Montana Blizzard and the flooding in the Upper Midwest.
- Climate Change/Global Warming and Low Sunspot Activity also play a role. They kinda counteract a bit in my outlook with a slight lean towards Climate Change.
Summary:
- Expect what I think will be a very changeable winter with the potential for our area to be near or on a battleground zone between ridging and a northern stream system. Meaning that I would probably expect at least 2 overrunning events that could be wintry or could be flooding and at least 1 severe weather threat for KY and TN.
- I believe the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will probably have their 3rd below normal winter in the role due to the northern stream
- Warmer ocean water means that ridging will be factors on both the Pacific and Atlantic side. At one point in the winter I would expect to see a very warm period all across the USA and Canada as these features will occasionally merge, especially if we linger around MJO phases 5 and 6.
- Having a stronger northern stream means more energy to beat the ridge. I would expect even SE TN and parts of the Deep South to have at least 1 legit threat even if they end up finishing the winter above average.
- Here is something really interesting. The SOI is leaning in more of a El-Nino direction but we have a Neutral to border Nina ENSO. Meaning that we could see the Subtropical Jet come to life with the active Northern Stream. I think we would have the chance to at one point to have a rare Triple Phase system, meaning a very strong system.
Overall temperature wise I am not expecting a dud winter, but I am not also expecting a solid cold winter. Something like a slightly more action-packed and slightly colder 2017-18 would probably be what I would forecast. With everyone seeing at least 1 threat and potentially a solid winter for NW TN.
Post Merge: October 06, 2019, 09:10:49 PM
[attachimg=1]
Outside of the coasts and the Desert SW/parts of the SE it might just be a Polar Coaster after all.
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: Flash on October 07, 2019, 07:25:36 AM
My analog set for this winter is
1952-53
2005-06
2013-14
2014-15
2017-18
I would consider a mix of 2005-06 and 2013-14 to be the primary. Not as warm as 2005-06 but not as cold as 2013-14 somewhere in the middle.
Other factors I am looking at are
- Sea Level Temps and a possible +PNA/+NAO combo
- The Neutral ENSO that may act both like a Nina and a Nino at times
- Very active Northern Stream that we already saw with the Montana Blizzard and the flooding in the Upper Midwest.
- Climate Change/Global Warming and Low Sunspot Activity also play a role. They kinda counteract a bit in my outlook with a slight lean towards Climate Change.
Summary:
- Expect what I think will be a very changeable winter with the potential for our area to be near or on a battleground zone between ridging and a northern stream system. Meaning that I would probably expect at least 2 overrunning events that could be wintry or could be flooding and at least 1 severe weather threat for KY and TN.
- I believe the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will probably have their 3rd below normal winter in the role due to the northern stream
- Warmer ocean water means that ridging will be factors on both the Pacific and Atlantic side. At one point in the winter I would expect to see a very warm period all across the USA and Canada as these features will occasionally merge, especially if we linger around MJO phases 5 and 6.
- Having a stronger northern stream means more energy to beat the ridge. I would expect even SE TN and parts of the Deep South to have at least 1 legit threat even if they end up finishing the winter above average.
- Here is something really interesting. The SOI is leaning in more of a El-Nino direction but we have a Neutral to border Nina ENSO. Meaning that we could see the Subtropical Jet come to life with the active Northern Stream. I think we would have the chance to at one point to have a rare Triple Phase system, meaning a very strong system.
Overall temperature wise I am not expecting a dud winter, but I am not also expecting a solid cold winter. Something like a slightly more action-packed and slightly colder 2017-18 would probably be what I would forecast. With everyone seeing at least 1 threat and potentially a solid winter for NW TN.
Post Merge: October 06, 2019, 09:10:49 PM
(Attachment Link)
Outside of the coasts and the Desert SW/parts of the SE it might just be a Polar Coaster after all.
Great work! After last winter, I'll take this look. Snowchased to Mount Vernon last year and may do it again if this verifies. Also, I know many look down on '05-06 due to the January +10 temp anomalies and the busted snowcast of 2/10/06, but December/February was primed for decent action for most of our viewing areas. Seems the decadal trend has been 'one month on, two months off' for winter showing up in the DJF time frame so anytime you get 'two months on, one month off', take it and run.
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2019, 03:39:42 PM
The other not so good solution is the EPO doesn't cooperate then you may have a January 2006 repeat or even worse 2001-02 depending on how long that lasts.
Those are my thoughts based on all of that, but there are so many pieces and scernaros that really anything from 2013-14 to 2005-06 to 2001-02 is possible.
Post by: bugalou on October 10, 2019, 11:17:12 AM
I've started to look more into solar forcings. I find it interesting. As I stated earlier, we are in between solar cycles which leads to a Polar Coaster type setup (active polar jet).
However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.
Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.
I find this interesting. So little is understood about how sun spot activity combined with Earth's orbit perturbations and its effects on the weather. I can see how ocean current activity, sea temps, and this solar variables could combine in ways to really drive the weather. While we have a decent understanding on the first two, data on the solar related variables is far less understood.
Post by: BRUCE on October 10, 2019, 11:27:19 AM
I find this interesting. So little is understood about how sun spot activity combined with Earth's orbit perturbations and its effects on the weather. I can see how ocean current activity, sea temps, and this solar variables could combine in ways to really drive the weather. While we have a decent understanding on the first two, data on the solar related variables is far less understood.sun spot n solar r way over rated ... doubt it has much effect to be honest ... imo..
Post by: bugalou on October 10, 2019, 11:45:32 AM
sun spot n solar r way over rated ... doubt it has much effect to be honest ... imo..
The data out there shows its minor, but everything I have seen does not combine other factors. There is not a lot of data here and I think calling it over rated is premature.
More over this does not factor minor changes in Earth's orbit from year to year. Considering the the ice ages are thought to be caused by earth's orbit extending further out from the sun, and the fact that they are regular occurrences it would back some sort of long term oscillation in earth's mean distance from the sun.
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2019, 03:11:57 PM
Post by: snowdog on October 11, 2019, 07:36:23 AM
The space features are important like sunspot data. The question becomes how much does the cooling influence of the sunspots compare to the warming influence of climate change/global warming. I think the climate forcing is probably stronger than the solar, but that doesn't mean that we need to ignore the solar forcings as it may impact things like having an active northern jet stream which play a huge role in how our cool season goes down.
I disagree. We don't even fully understand solar and it's impact. For the first time the IPCC will have solar forcings in their model output. A good video on solar forcings and climate change https://youtu.be/rEWoPzaDmOA (https://youtu.be/rEWoPzaDmOA)
Post by: BRUCE on October 18, 2019, 08:02:09 AM
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 18, 2019, 09:01:36 AM
Post by: Flash on October 18, 2019, 09:08:32 AM
Nws forecast for winter is out....going with above average temps this winter... not to far we’re close to way above average category... not much suprise to be honest
This is actually GREAT news for our prospects here (i.e. Winter 2010-11 started with ::blowtorch:: predictions September/October). Whatever the consensus is for the southeast, usually the opposite happens.
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2019, 09:50:25 AM
... not to far we’re close to way above average category... not much suprise to be honest
Wut
Post by: BRUCE on October 18, 2019, 10:42:43 AM
That means we will have a eventful winter, things usually go the opposite of what they put out. It's 50-50 at best. ::guitar:: ::snowman:: ::cold::nws has gone with above norms temps wise last few years actually....
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 18, 2019, 04:37:46 PM
nws has gone with above norms temps wise last few years actually....I think I will wait and see how it shakes before I take a October long range forecast to heart. And even if they are right on overall temps it does not mean we won't have winter weather. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::cold::
Post by: StormNine on October 18, 2019, 05:14:43 PM
nws has gone with above norms temps wise last few years actually....
NOAA busted big time last winter as well because they went Average for the SE and had the highest probabilities of Above Average is like Montana, Idaho, etc.
Post by: Curt on October 22, 2019, 01:18:49 PM
Post by: BRUCE on October 22, 2019, 02:37:17 PM
ENSO 3.4 pushing moderate El Niño territory with the huge SOI drop over the last 2 months. The pacific is cold east and warm central to west. A weak El Niño in the official region of 3.4 looks likely now. The NE PAC is still warm which is driving the negative EPO. If this continues which it should- the implications for arctic outbreaks should be on the upswing.which will only lead to suppression if artic does unload...
Post by: bugalou on October 23, 2019, 04:37:52 PM
which will only lead to suppression if artic does unload...
I'll take my chances on suppression versus just no cold air like the last 2 winters.
Post by: StormNine on October 23, 2019, 05:28:22 PM
Post by: Flash on October 23, 2019, 08:02:11 PM
I'll take my chances on suppression versus just no cold air like the last 2 winters.
I was thinking exactly the same thing when I ready his suppression remark. Usually, someone in our state/region cashes in during 'suppression winters'...or rather winters we find ourselves mentioning it more than once. Last winter I feel suppression was a major issue was 2013-14.
Post by: Charles L. on October 23, 2019, 09:41:00 PM
I too will take a suppression winter, because at least with a suppression winter we have the chance of seeing something wintry and not just torch all winter long.
Post by: BRUCE on October 23, 2019, 10:14:49 PM
Every winter we are in the battleground zone, thanks to geography.one bad as the other ... suppression will lead to winter storms all going way south of us... leaving us dry as bone
I too will take a suppression winter, because at least with a suppression winter we have the chance of seeing something wintry and not just torch all winter long.
Post by: Eric on October 24, 2019, 08:30:16 AM
one bad as the other ... suppression will lead to winter storms all going way south of us... leaving us dry as bone
That's fine, but as long as we're suppressed, it's gonna be cold.
Post by: TNHunter on October 24, 2019, 11:03:15 AM
Post by: Flash on October 24, 2019, 02:29:25 PM
Can't speak for the rest of the state, but in Northwest Tennessee we are pretty much always going to get a couple winter weather events. Even last years winter we still got 2 small snow events that got us out of school (I am a teacher). Most winters we get out for a week or maybe even two weeks for snow. Granted some we may get out for just 3-4 days. Guess NW TN is just in the sweet spot for Tennessee winter weather. Glad thats where I live!
I was in Camden last November for that first snow event. Seems if you're not above 1000+' ft, you want to be north of 40 and west of the Tennessee River if you want a 3-4" lock each year.
Post by: joemomma on October 24, 2019, 02:31:19 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 24, 2019, 03:00:35 PM
Can't speak for the rest of the state, but in Northwest Tennessee we are pretty much always going to get a couple winter weather events. Even last years winter we still got 2 small snow events that got us out of school (I am a teacher). Most winters we get out for a week or maybe even two weeks for snow. Granted some we may get out for just 3-4 days. Guess NW TN is just in the sweet spot for Tennessee winter weather. Glad thats where I live!You will learn that we are not liked during the winter.
Post by: Curt on October 24, 2019, 07:00:47 PM
You will learn that we are not liked during the winter.
Living in the northern part of the Memphis metro has its benefits that make the Desoto Co. folks grumble, too.
Post by: gcbama on October 24, 2019, 07:15:21 PM
Can't speak for the rest of the state, but in Northwest Tennessee we are pretty much always going to get a couple winter weather events. Even last years winter we still got 2 small snow events that got us out of school (I am a teacher). Most winters we get out for a week or maybe even two weeks for snow. Granted some we may get out for just 3-4 days. Guess NW TN is just in the sweet spot for Tennessee winter weather. Glad thats where I live!
it still baffles me how much it has changed.....90's and early 2000's was around an 8-10 inch average in my area along the 412 corridor …. a lot of times it was right on the edge of the cold air and the heaviest moisture and we would get slammed....hasn't happened since 2010-11 seasons for me in lewis county
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on October 24, 2019, 07:19:47 PM
I was in Camden last November for that first snow event. Seems if you're not above 1000+' ft, you want to be north of 40 and west of the Tennessee River if you want a 3-4" lock each year.
We have lucked out the last few years with at least 2 events. Might be ice, but I'll take it.
Post by: Clint on October 24, 2019, 08:43:00 PM
Living in the northern part of the Memphis metro has its benefits that make the Desoto Co. folks grumble, too.
Yep, this is true. Tipton, Lauderdale, and Dyer usually cash in our area. While Desoto, and southern Shelby are in the screw zone. We are usually in the mixed precipitation zone, while just a few miles up Hwy 51 a raging blizzard is under way.
Jonesboro to Dyersburg has always been the sweet spot.
Post by: schneitzeit on October 24, 2019, 09:58:26 PM
You will learn that we are not liked during the winter.
I talk a lot of ***** don't I
Post by: Clay on October 25, 2019, 12:30:00 AM
Post by: BRUCE on October 25, 2019, 01:02:37 AM
Since I'm a 90s baby, can I just experience one winter like 77-78?. I'm fine with it being once in a lifetime in Nashville.76 77 ?... it was snowier ...
Post by: StormNine on October 25, 2019, 05:05:35 AM
76 77 ?... it was snowier ...
76-77 was colder but 77-78 and 78-79 were snowier than 76-77 at least in Nashville and the KY stations. 76-77 was the coldest winter on record which is not likely to repeat in our current climate state. I think it is possible for us to get a 2009-10, 2013-14, and 2014-15 type winter and maybe even a 1984-85 type in our current state if the cards fall right.
Post by: BRUCE on October 25, 2019, 07:57:00 AM
76-77 was colder but 77-78 and 78-79 were snowier than 76-77 at least in Nashville and the KY stations. 76-77 was the coldest winter on record which is not likely to repeat in our current climate state. I think it is possible for us to get a 2009-10, 2013-14, and 2014-15 type winter and maybe even a 1984-85 type in our current state if the cards fall right.all I remember bout 77 was ... we missed nearly month school that January ... it snowed every Wednesday which was strange ... and each snow was 5 inches or greater ... winter 78 was colder with bit less ⛄️... but both years had lot ::snowman::
Post by: Flash on October 25, 2019, 11:02:08 AM
Since I'm a 90s baby, can I just experience one winter like77-7876-77?. I'm fine with it being once in a lifetime in Nashville.
Same here. It's like the Grizzlies or Titans winning a championship. Locals can ride the high out for decades whereas the significance fades for repeated contenders up north (looking at you, New England). Worst case, I'd like to ride a winter out somewhere that gets 3-4' of snow and see what's it like.
Post by: Thundersnow on October 25, 2019, 02:20:38 PM
Same here. It's like the Grizzlies or Titans winning a championship. Locals can ride the high out for decades whereas the significance fades for repeated contenders up north (looking at you, New England). Worst case, I'd like to ride a winter out somewhere that gets 3-4' of snow and see what's it like.
That was Nashville in the winter of 1959-1960:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wkrn.com/weather/when-were-nashvilles-5-snowiest-winters-biggest-snow-storms/amp/
It seems hard to get 3” of snow in a winter these days, to say nothing of 38.5”-
Crazy- someone should analyze the indices from that winter to see what was up.
Post by: gcbama on October 25, 2019, 04:59:41 PM
That was Nashville in the winter of 1959-1960:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wkrn.com/weather/when-were-nashvilles-5-snowiest-winters-biggest-snow-storms/amp/
It seems hard to get 3” of snow in a winter these days, to say nothing of 38.5”-
Crazy- someone should analyze the indices from that winter to see what was up.
I have always thought 85 would be insane to live through for this region....many record lows in the -10's with -40 and 150 wind chills and several snow rounds
Post by: StormNine on October 25, 2019, 05:16:47 PM
1959-60 was not that wild until February as it was a backloaded winter like 2014-15 was. 1959-60 had a pretty strong -NAO and even stronger -AO which helped out.
It hould be noted that we have an average -NAO this month. There is supposedly some correlation between October NAO and winter NAO. We are overdue for an -NAO and if we can get it that would be great.
Post by: BRUCE on October 25, 2019, 07:06:56 PM
we got well over30 inches snow that winter ... insane... especially after a blowtorch end to 1984
I have always thought 85 would be insane to live through for this region....many record lows in the -10's with -40 and 150 wind chills and several snow rounds
Post by: gcbama on October 25, 2019, 07:17:27 PM
we got well over30 inches snow that winter ... insane... especially after a blowtorch end to 1984
I am just happy with the average winters we used to have from 1990 to the early 2000's.....by average I mean two or three nice snow events of 3-4 inches a piece every winter. NOW we are lucky to get 3 inches in a season for the past 5-6 years and it is horrible
Post by: BRUCE on October 26, 2019, 07:59:41 AM
I am just happy with the average winters we used to have from 1990 to the early 2000's.....by average I mean two or three nice snow events of 3-4 inches a piece every winter. NOW we are lucky to get 3 inches in a season for the past 5-6 years and it is horribleyou can forget about ever seeing the winters we had in the 60s 70s early 80s... and it’s mans fault to mainly blame... that’s why get so jade about winter these days... we’re just fighting a loosing battle... notice now whenever we do get a decent snow.. it starts to melt just bout soon it stops snowing ... so I turned more a severe lover which i always loved anyways... now we don’t even get that anymore... weather to me has become so boring it’s a snooze fest for me... go vols and patriots...!
Post by: Crockett on October 26, 2019, 09:53:32 AM
you can forget about ever seeing the winters we had in the 60s 70s early 80s... and it’s mans fault to mainly blame...
Good grief. For someone who can't accurately predict a severe weather outbreak 5-7 days out, that's a bold prediction!
Post by: BRUCE on October 26, 2019, 10:34:13 AM
Good grief. For someone who can't accurately predict a severe weather outbreak 5-7 days out, that's a bold prediction!bold but true... go ahead be in denial... climate is changing to much
Post by: StormNine on October 26, 2019, 10:55:25 AM
While I think that our winters are getting warmer overall and that a repeat of the late 70s or even a winter like 1963-64 is very unlikely, we can still have good winters.
The trick is to get either a strongly -NAO/-AO (1959-60, 2009-10, 2010-11) and/or strongly -EPO/+PNA/+PDO (2013-14 and 2014-15) combo and to not have a Super El-Nino or La-Nina (above +1.7C). If we can have all of that then we will be good.
Having just a minor to moderately -NAO without the favorable EPO/PNA/PDO like 2005-06 and 2012-13 doesn't quite work it needs to be pretty negative if we don't get help from the 3 Pacific helpers.
My prediction of a +NAO, -EPO, and Neutral to Slightly + PNA/PDO and an active polar northern stream probably means that the brunt of the cold air spills in between both the West Coast and the Southeastern Ridges. Good for I-44 and perhaps even KY and West Tennessee, but not so great for the East Coast, East TN, or much of our Deep South friends. The PNA/PDO need to go raging + and/or the NAO needs to go Negative for them to have consistent cold and winter threats.
Post by: gcbama on October 26, 2019, 10:57:56 AM
bold but true... go ahead be in denial... climate is changing to much
it's cyclic it will turn around for us again one day bruce! :), we are BEYOND due a good snow event statewide ….. to me my favorite storm was the 2010 storm where all of TN and northern ms and bama got a good storm....of course the 412 corridor is where it was the best :) moderate snow started at 10am and did not end until after 8pm with a bit of sleet at the end....had 9-10 inches here it was fun to watch!!!
Post by: BRUCE on October 26, 2019, 01:05:39 PM
it's cyclic it will turn around for us again one day bruce! :), we are BEYOND due a good snow event statewide ….. to me my favorite storm was the 2010 storm where all of TN and northern ms and bama got a good storm....of course the 412 corridor is where it was the best :) moderate snow started at 10am and did not end until after 8pm with a bit of sleet at the end....had 9-10 inches here it was fun to watch!!!talking bout a overall classic winter we used to get...
Post Merge: October 26, 2019, 01:07:43 PM
I will backtrack my previous statement a bit. We can still get good winters it just requires a bit of a balancing act.that sound s like a good ice setup for us midsouth be honest
While I think that our winters are getting warmer overall and that a repeat of the late 70s or even a winter like 1963-64 is very unlikely, we can still have good winters.
The trick is to get either a strongly -NAO/-AO (1959-60, 2009-10, 2010-11) and/or strongly -EPO/+PNA/+PDO (2013-14 and 2014-15) combo and to not have a Super El-Nino or La-Nina (above +1.7C). If we can have all of that then we will be good.
Having just a minor to moderately -NAO without the favorable EPO/PNA/PDO like 2005-06 and 2012-13 doesn't quite work it needs to be pretty negative if we don't get help from the 3 Pacific helpers.
My prediction of a +NAO, -EPO, and Neutral to Slightly + PNA/PDO and an active polar northern stream probably means that the brunt of the cold air spills in between both the West Coast and the Southeastern Ridges. Good for I-44 and perhaps even KY and West Tennessee, but not so great for the East Coast, East TN, or much of our Deep South friends. The PNA/PDO need to go raging + and/or the NAO needs to go Negative for them to have consistent cold and winter threats.
Post by: StormNine on October 26, 2019, 03:38:17 PM
I am just happy with the average winters we used to have from 1990 to the early 2000's.....by average I mean two or three nice snow events of 3-4 inches a piece every winter. NOW we are lucky to get 3 inches in a season for the past 5-6 years and it is horrible
It may be different in your area but I thought that the late 90s and early 00's were pretty crappy. 96-97 was a front-loaded winter that ended by January 20th, 97-98 was a super-el nino that had one good storm, 98-99 was a less snowy version of 07-08, 99-00 was similar to 98-99, 00-01 was the best out of the series but was another front-loaded winter, and 01-02 was one surprise storm away from being 2011-12.
From 96-97 to 01-02 the only winters that get a grade higher than a D are 96-97 and 00-01 and those are probably C winters.
For say the Hopkinsville, Clarksville, Dover area I would rank the winters since 96-97 this way:
96-97: C
97-98: D+
98-99: D-
99-00: F
00-01: C+
01-02: F
02-03: A
03-04: C-
04-05: C-
05-06: C-
06-07: C-
07-08: B-
08-09: C
09-10: A-
10-11: A
11-12: F
12-13: D+
13-14: B
14-15: A
15-16: B-
16-17: F
17-18: B-
18-19: D-
Post by: Flash on October 26, 2019, 06:13:10 PM
It may be different in your area but I thought that the late 90s and early 00's were pretty crappy. 96-97 was a front-loaded winter that ended by January 20th, 97-98 was a super-el nino that had one good storm, 98-99 was a less snowy version of 07-08, 99-00 was similar to 98-99, 00-01 was the best out of the series but was another front-loaded winter, and 01-02 was one surprise storm away from being 2011-12.
From 96-97 to 01-02 the only winters that get a grade higher than a D are 96-97 and 00-01 and those are probably C winters.
For say the Hopkinsville, Clarksville, Dover area I would rank the winters since 96-97 this way:
96-97: C
97-98: D+
98-99: D-
99-00: F
00-01: C+
01-02: F
02-03: A
03-04: C-
04-05: C-
05-06: C-
06-07: C-
07-08: B-
08-09: C
09-10: A-
10-11: A
11-12: F
12-13: D+
13-14: B
14-15: A
15-16: B-
16-17: F
17-18: B-
18-19: D-
Shouldn't 01-02 be, at least, a D- then? Weird to think BNA had three more inches of snow that winter compared to 11-12. Anywho, here's how I'd grade the winters out (mostly from a Williamson county 825' perspective):
92-93: B+ (First local winter as a 6-year-old; we missed out on the superstorm, but having moved from CA, any snow was something to behold)
93-94: A (This is debatable depending on how you view the '94 ice storm; for me, January '94 was pretty special...one of the few times I've seen local creeks flash-freeze)
94-95: D
95-96: A+ (and this factors in missing the 3/21/96 8" snow being away on spring break; this winter will be remembered for snow depths up to my waist and watching the temp sensor drop to -2 on a drive to church)
96-97: B (I consider any 3-6" event an automatic B in my book)
97-98: C- (December was fun at least; driving home from DC after Christmas was still one of the scariest driving experiences of my dad's life)
98-99: D
99-00: D- (this was the first winter I realized some long term forecasts had cold biases; sad times for me...but hey Vince Carter and winning the 8th-grade science award helped)
00-01: B- (front-loaded, but man...December 2000 was something else)
01-02: D+
02-03: A+
03-04: C- (2/15/04 killed me; had I lived in Spring Hill/Thompson Station...this grade goes to a B)
04-05: F (big whiff on 12/22/04 was partially tempered by being out of state; still an annual amount of trace is an automatic 'F' in my book; this winter trumps 11-12 as the worst winter the last quarter-century IMO)
05-06: C- (RIP 2/10/06)
06-07: C-
07-08: B (3/7-8/08 to the rescue)
08-09: D+ (constant whiff after whiff; the 3/1/09 storm path is still an eye soar a decade later)
09-10: A (showchasing up to Murray State a few times this winter takes this from A- to A for me)
10-11: A
11-12: F
12-13: D+ (at least I was engaged prepping for a wedding most of this time)
13-14: D (Many would disagree...but this was the epic snowdome/suppression winter; an easy A for SE TN; however, for middle TN, I can't recall a winter that wasted so much arctic air)
14-15: B+ (too much ice, too little snow...February 2015 the last real February Nashville has seen)
15-16: A (major score on 1/22-23/16; 9th warmest winter somehow yielded the 28th snowiest winter at BNA ::shrug::)
16-17: F
17-18: C
18-19: D- (would have given a D+, but the blown hype adds insult to injury)
After all that, here's how I would rank my 'top 3'...
Top 3 Winters
95-96
02-03
10-11
Worst 3 Winters
04-05
11-12
18-19
Post by: Crockett on October 26, 2019, 07:49:10 PM
bold but true... go ahead be in denial... climate is changing to much
Denial based on what? The emotionalism of someone who wish-casts severe weather at the drop of a hat? The best winter of my lifetime here was 2010-2011. That’s hardly the distant past.
Post by: StormNine on October 26, 2019, 08:52:50 PM
Quote
Shouldn't 01-02 be, at least, a D- then?
Only got about 1 inch from that one. Plus that winter had a ton of hype surrounding it. People thought that winter was going to be what 2002-03 ended up being. I heard that even NOAA was thinking that 2001-02 was going to be cold. It was as much if not more than the 2011-12, 2014-15, and 2018-19 pre-hype.
Post by: Nashville_Wx on October 29, 2019, 08:38:47 AM
Post by: StormNine on October 29, 2019, 06:24:12 PM
Even the Nebraska Panhandle has been under at least an Advisory on 3 separate occasions and we are not even to Halloween yet.
Whether that can bleed into our area later still remains a mystery?
Post by: Curt on October 29, 2019, 09:05:08 PM
Post by: Curt on October 30, 2019, 10:30:13 AM
Post by: joemomma on October 30, 2019, 01:09:33 PM
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 30, 2019, 02:15:52 PM
you can forget about ever seeing the winters we had in the 60s 70s early 80s... and it’s mans fault to mainly blame... that’s why get so jade about winter these days... we’re just fighting a loosing battle... notice now whenever we do get a decent snow.. it starts to melt just bout soon it stops snowing ... so I turned more a severe lover which i always loved anyways... now we don’t even get that anymore... weather to me has become so boring it’s a snooze fest for me... go vols and patriots...!You have no true knowledge or evidence to back that up but go ahead if you must. Heck, actually 2010-11 was a winter that did favor compare favorably with winters of that era. We were way into double digits for total snowfall that year.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 30, 2019, 04:40:21 PM
You have no true knowledge or evidence to back that up but go ahead if you must. Heck, actually 2010-11 was a winter that did favor compare favorably with winters of that era. We were way into double digits for total snowfall that year.Actually the closest thing to the 70s we have had here was January 2018. Problem was it only lasted 10 days. Bruce was begging for it to quit.
Post by: Drifter49 on October 30, 2019, 04:42:51 PM
Actually the closest thing to the 70s we have had here was January 2018. Problem was it only lasted 10 days. Bruce was begging for it to quit.
I had the 70’s feeling a few weeks ago in Colorado...It was great!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: Mr. Golf on October 30, 2019, 04:48:42 PM
ENSO regions are about as lopsided as it can get. East PAC is +1 and west PAC is -1.3. The official ENSO region is weak Nino. #modoki
Curt, i dont mean to interlude, but its actually-1.3 in 1+2 region and between .5 and 1 in 4 region, which is west Pacific. I think if it holds we should get cold this winter a little more often than last winter from what i understand.
Post by: BRUCE on October 30, 2019, 04:51:03 PM
Actually the closest thing to the 70s we have had here was January 2018. Problem was it only lasted 10 days. Bruce was begging for it to quit.been so long we had 70 type winter forgot what they were... actually be nice to see one again for fun...
Post Merge: October 30, 2019, 04:56:52 PM
We did get those two back to back decent snows that January.. were nice
Post by: Curt on October 30, 2019, 05:31:00 PM
Curt, i dont mean to interlude, but its actually-1.3 in 1+2 region and between .5 and 1 in 4 region, which is west Pacific. I think if it holds we should get cold this winter a little more often than last winter from what i understand.
You are correct east is cold west is warm typo was my fault. That’s a Modoki look if there ever was one
Post by: StormNine on October 30, 2019, 05:35:51 PM
Post by: dwagner88 on October 30, 2019, 10:23:30 PM
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 31, 2019, 12:10:44 PM
Actually the closest thing to the 70s we have had here was January 2018. Problem was it only lasted 10 days. Bruce was begging for it to quit.I was just saying we have had some good winters since. And there is no factual basis for someone to say them types of winters can't happen again. He also said early 80's were the worst of the 80's and 83 was cold but dry, the 2 biggest winters in the 80's for my region was 85 and 88. We were well into double digit snowfall here in 2010 but I agree there were breaks in it that the 70's and 85 did not have. And you are right 2018 for a week was like the 70's were for a month. Also this morning we had a 5-10 minute burst of fine snow and sleet falling. I was headed home and was in town and folks in woodlawn called me and said it was snowing. As I got closer to woodlawn I ran into it. Didn't last long but it was coming down fast but it was very fine for the most part seen a few slightly bigger flakes now and then but they were still pretty small, it was snow on Halloween none the less. First time since 93. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Post by: gcbama on October 31, 2019, 01:59:13 PM
I was just saying we have had some good winters since. And there is no factual basis for someone to say them types of winters can't happen again. He also said early 80's were the worst of the 80's and 83 was cold but dry, the 2 biggest winters in the 80's for my region was 85 and 88. We were well into double digit snowfall here in 2010 but I agree there were breaks in it that the 70's and 85 did not have. And you are right 2018 for a week was like the 70's were for a month. Also this morning we had a 5-10 minute burst of fine snow and sleet falling. I was headed home and was in town and folks in woodlawn called me and said it was snowing. As I got closer to woodlawn I ran into it. Didn't last long but it was coming down fast but it was very fine for the most part seen a few slightly bigger flakes now and then but they were still pretty small, it was snow on Halloween none the less. First time since 93. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
All I know is the average winter used to be 7-10 inches of snow across the mid state with usually 2 or 3 decent events per winter.....this decade I only had 3 + inches for an entire winter season twice that i remember, 2010 and 2015. it has been a horribly below average decade
Post by: Charles L. on October 31, 2019, 04:20:30 PM
Post by: StormNine on October 31, 2019, 08:59:45 PM
He has 1995-96, 2003-04, 2007-08, and 2008-09 as analogs.
Post by: schneitzeit on October 31, 2019, 10:18:26 PM
Larry Cosgrove is going for normal to occasionally mild from Texas to our region with the best potential being back-loaded. The best cold is Upper Midwest to Interior Northeast and he thinks -NAO, -AO, and -EPO.
He has 1995-96, 2003-04, 2007-08, and 2008-09 as analogs.
Those winters were neither great nor bad. Heck, after the past few winters, I will jump for joy if we receive average snowfall.
Post by: NismoWx on November 01, 2019, 08:16:38 AM
I remember watching it snow from the tiny window in my sophomore English class and telling the teacher, "Bet they'll call school early." She laughed. Hard. Needless to say, in about 30 minutes, she was apologizing to me after the principal came over the TV and said we were dismissing at 11.
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
Post by: joemomma on November 01, 2019, 08:32:12 AM
Post by: Eric on November 01, 2019, 09:00:20 AM
2003 was great for Rutherford County. That was the year that it snowed ~6" from daylight to around lunch time. We wound up with 9" on my parents farm in Smyrna by the time that storm was over. People were stuck on the interstate most of the day.
I remember watching it snow from the tiny window in my sophomore English class and telling the teacher, "Bet they'll call school early." She laughed. Hard. Needless to say, in about 30 minutes, she was apologizing to me after the principal came over the TV and said we were dismissing at 11.
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
Yeah, but that was a rogue upper-level low that deepened once it rolled across the MS River and surprised everyone, meteorologists included. From what I remember, there was some bouts of cold but nothing to really write home about. That was 15-16 years ago, so who knows if I remember anything correctly.
Post by: NismoWx on November 01, 2019, 11:40:21 AM
Yeah, but that was a rogue upper-level low that deepened once it rolled across the MS River and surprised everyone, meteorologists included. From what I remember, there was some bouts of cold but nothing to really write home about. That was 15-16 years ago, so who knows if I remember anything correctly.
See, I didn't know what that was. I didn't have any winter meteorological knowledge at all then. Severe took up too much of my interests lol.
Post by: joemomma on November 01, 2019, 01:53:00 PM
Post by: dwagner88 on November 01, 2019, 08:29:22 PM
It was definitely a surprise. As best as I can remember (which isn't very good anymore) - there was talk of a few flurries/showers but nothing much was supposed to come of it. By lunch time it was becoming clear that they "missed" this one.This storm was the only time in my 32 years on earth that Chattanooga saw more than 1” of snow from a ULL.
Post by: gcbama on November 02, 2019, 02:29:49 PM
It was definitely a surprise. As best as I can remember (which isn't very good anymore) - there was talk of a few flurries/showers but nothing much was supposed to come of it. By lunch time it was becoming clear that they "missed" this one.
I do believe that was the last "bust" that was supposed to be nothing that turned out to be a big storm in our area
Post by: dwagner88 on November 02, 2019, 07:44:30 PM
Post by: StormNine on November 03, 2019, 07:39:39 AM
I will probably stick with my winter outlook as it does look like the SE Ridge will get in the way at times, but the active polar stream and colder air looks to have a bit more of a bite versus last year.
Post by: snowdog on November 04, 2019, 08:46:52 AM
Post by: joemomma on November 04, 2019, 10:24:26 AM
Post by: Curt on November 04, 2019, 11:18:48 AM
Euro hinting at some possible flakage next week. Both the main and ensemble have flurries flying. Maybe a "flurry dusting" as Bill Hall used to say.
Euro has a light snow cover and temps nearing the teens statewide early next week.
Post by: wfrogge on November 04, 2019, 11:29:59 AM
Post by: Michael on November 05, 2019, 10:43:28 AM
Guys and gals it’s still fall. My OCD takes over when I see short term discussion in a thread about next seasons weather :)
Last December 9th was 10-12 inches of "next seasons weather" in Northeast Tennessee ::shaking_finger:: ::evillaugh::
Post by: Thundersnow on November 05, 2019, 03:20:56 PM
Last December 9th was 10-12 inches of "next seasons weather" in Northeast Tennessee ::shaking_finger:: ::evillaugh::
If we're going to be even more nitpicky about it, "meteorological winter" begins December 1st, so in a sense that was winter. In climatology, the seasons don't go by the solstices and equinoxes, but by 3 whole months at a time. Winter is Dec - Feb, Spring: Mar - May, Summer: Jun - Aug, and Fall: Sep - Nov.
In any case, wfrogge's point is taken, it's November and Fall this month, anyway you cut it.
To muddy it up even more though... we do typically discuss "wintry weather" (ice, snow, etc.) in the "Winter Weather" forum regardless of the date. :D
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 05, 2019, 08:32:11 PM
Post by: Clint on November 05, 2019, 10:40:25 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/FWFdjzW.png)
Post by: Curt on November 05, 2019, 10:59:36 PM
Winter weather in November? ::pondering::
(https://i.imgur.com/FWFdjzW.png)
The audacity. That should be in the winter thread. I mean the Fall thread. I mean the winter thread.
Post by: Flash on November 06, 2019, 10:13:18 AM
Winter weather in November? ::pondering::
(https://i.imgur.com/FWFdjzW.png)
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019110612/gfs_asnow_us_25.png)
::snowman:: ::popcorn::
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 06, 2019, 10:15:47 AM
Post by: wfrogge on November 06, 2019, 04:09:25 PM
The audacity. That should be in the winter thread. I mean the Fall thread. I mean the winter thread.
Might get some severe weather in the next month. Time to post in the 2019 spring thread
Post by: cgauxknox on November 06, 2019, 04:19:45 PM
Might get some severe weather in the next month. Time to post in the 2019 spring thread::rofl::
Post by: Thundersnow on November 06, 2019, 05:08:45 PM
Where it gets tricky is when we have these "season" threads... which are fine for keeping a running dialog of discussion over the course of a season. We have a "Fall 2019" thread, where really anything taking place during this season could and should be discussed, regardless of the type of weather it is. Now, if some system of significance happens, a thread should be created in the appropriate subforum (depending on whether that falls under wintry, severe, or even tropical weather). As far as what the bar of "significance" is when that happens is a judgment call. I wouldn't expect every line of sub-severe storms or flurry to get its own thread... keeping it going in the generic "season" thread is fine.
I would say, if we're talking about "wintry weather" about to occur when it's not yet winter... yeah, probably best belongs in the "Fall" thread simply because that's the season we're still in. But, I don't get bent out of shape if someone brings that up in the "Winter 2019-2020" thread since it's understandable that someone wanting to talk about "wintry weather" might have the inclination to put it in the "winter" thread.
Clear as mud? ::twocents::
Post by: Michael on November 06, 2019, 07:42:44 PM
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: Nash_LSU on November 07, 2019, 07:55:23 AM
Post by: gcbama on November 07, 2019, 08:25:50 AM
Y'all, it's too early in the season for me to get my snow hopes crushed. I'm still recovering from last year.
yup......doubt there will be any moisture left at all with this one...it was never gonna be anything more than a flurry attack anyway
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 07, 2019, 08:59:36 AM
Y'all, it's too early in the season for me to get my snow hopes crushed. I'm still recovering from last year.With all due respect if anyone gets their snow hopes crushed for a minor even in November doesn't need to follow winter weather. Not that we can't hope to see some snow flying, nobody loves snow any more than me but if it doesn't snow this time around it will not affect my winter outlook or me one bit. Folks can get excited about the possibility of snow flying even if it is just flurries without it crushing them if it doesn't. Good gracious that is pretty extreme. I do realize your area in southern middle hasn't gotten too much snow lately, but a chance of flurries or a dusting in November shouldn't crush your hopes. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Post by: Beth on November 07, 2019, 09:08:42 AM
With all due respect if anyone gets their snow hopes crushed for a minor even in November doesn't need to follow winter weather. Not that we can't hope to see some snow flying, nobody loves snow any more than me but if it doesn't snow this time around it will not affect my winter outlook or me one bit. Folks can get excited about the possibility of snow flying even if it is just flurries without it crushing them if it doesn't. Good gracious that is pretty extreme. I do realize your area in southern middle hasn't gotten too much snow lately, but a chance of flurries or a dusting in November shouldn't crush your hopes. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Well said Snowman! We have seen flurries on Halloween and that is always rare in our area! I can’t see why we can’t hope for a few more flurries with next system. But we know we cannot throw in the towel and have a melt down if it doesn’t snow. It’s the South some times we are lucky and quite a bit of the time we aren’t. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Post by: joemomma on November 07, 2019, 09:15:43 AM
Post by: BRUCE on November 07, 2019, 10:12:35 AM
Anything that happens this time of year is a bonus. Has nothing to do with what will happen when "real" winter rolls around. It's Middle Tennessee - might snow, might not. Plain and simple.got a bonus last November .... don't be surprised if this be the coldest air all fall inter combine
Post by: Crockett on November 07, 2019, 10:15:07 AM
got a bonus last November .... don't be surprised if this be the coldest air all fall inter combine next coming u ...
(https://media.giphy.com/media/WO0MnJi3wOgzS/giphy.gif)
Post by: Matthew on November 07, 2019, 10:20:42 AM
got a bonus last November .... don't be surprised if this be the coldest air all fall inter combine next coming up
So this will be the coldest air and then it’s over! Well might as well go ahead and jump. ::cliff:: ::cliff::
Bruce is always right.
Post by: gcbama on November 07, 2019, 10:40:32 AM
got a bonus last November .... don't be surprised if this be the coldest air all fall inter combine
what happened last year in November ? I might be losing my mind cause I forget lol.....don't forget the 412 corridor got ZERO accumulation last year in middle tennessee so I tried to forget last winter lol
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 07, 2019, 11:07:13 AM
got a bonus last November .... don't be surprised if this be the coldest air all fall inter combine::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl::
Post by: BRUCE on November 07, 2019, 11:16:00 AM
what happened last year in November ? I might be losing my mind cause I forget lol.....don't forget the 412 corridor got ZERO accumulation last year in middle tennessee so I tried to forget last winter lolI got close to couple inches here... it melted pretty much later same day...and that pretty much ended the season... some colder shots came here n there... im looking at all forecast im seeing from major mets... nothing to get excited bout this season either... shall see
Post by: Flash on November 07, 2019, 11:45:18 AM
I got close to couple inches here... it melted pretty much later same day...and that pretty much ended the season... some colder shots came here n there... im looking at all forecast im seeing from major mets... nothing to get excited bout this season either... shall see
Well, we should all know after last year not to put [too much] hope in any winter weather forecast good or bad. That said, if you love ::blowtorch:: winters, Isotherm's 2019-20 Winter Weather Forecast is the one for you.
http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1228 (http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1228)
Pretty much a standard recipe for a snowless winter in the southeast. Can't really argue with him given the collapse of favorable Pacific telecons in recent weeks. Not to mention it's going to be a while before we get any help from the Atlantic. Will need a surprise 2010-11ish -NAO/-AO and/or a consistently negative QBO to spice things up.
Post by: Matthew on November 07, 2019, 11:59:43 AM
I got close to couple inches here... it melted pretty much later same day...and that pretty much ended the season... some colder shots came here n there... im looking at all forecast im seeing from major mets... nothing to get excited bout this season either... shall see
Looking at anything past a few days is worthless. Predicting anything past a few days is idiotic. Wx will not be predictable. Teleconnections change and the atmosphere right when we think we have it figured out another comes along.
Post by: Curt on November 07, 2019, 12:28:51 PM
I got close to couple inches here... it melted pretty much later same day...and that pretty much ended the season... some colder shots came here n there... im looking at all forecast im seeing from major mets... nothing to get excited bout this season either... shall see
Thrill us with your acumen.
Post by: lyngo on November 07, 2019, 01:08:34 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on November 07, 2019, 01:21:29 PM
Looking at anything past a few days is worthless. Predicting anything past a few days is idiotic. Wx will not be predictable. Teleconnections change and the atmosphere right when we think we have it figured out another comes along.
k
Post by: BRUCE on November 07, 2019, 01:27:33 PM
Seasonal forecasting is tough. There are just too many variables that can pop up with short lead times that are very hard to forecast more than a couple of weeks out. Someone mentioned Isotherm’s forecast for this winter which isn’t very promising at all. However, I believe he like many other seasonal forecasters didn’t fare very well last winter. I certainly can’t argue with his reasoning for his forecast but I just don’t think we’ve gotten to the point where we can predict what will happen over a 3 month period with a lot of accuracy. Besides, we’ve scored many times in the past with certain indices in the “wrong” phase. No two winters are ever really the same so I guess my point is to enjoy the season and who knows what it will bring us..agree with u... hard to get excited when 90 percent the winter forecast not calling but warm ... I like winter much as next guy... just jaded guess...
Post by: Crockett on November 07, 2019, 02:05:41 PM
Besides, it only takes one blockbuster event to make even a mild winter memorable. Case in point: the dynamic cooling storm of February 1998. I'll grant you that was a relatively narrow-scale event that didn't impact much of this board, but Winter 1997-1998 had been quite mild and uneventful (January featured +5 temps) until that event, which was the most spectacular snowstorm of my lifetime here on the Cumberland Plateau. And 1992-1993 was a complete dud before the blizzard. Temps were slightly below normal in December and February, but with no snow to show for it, and we were +6 in January during the heart of winter. Then came March...I'm pretty sure just about anyone on this board would be satisfied to torch through most of winter if it meant getting a repeat of the Blizzard of '93.
Post by: gcbama on November 07, 2019, 02:21:39 PM
Can I just remind everyone that NOAA was originally forecasting a warm November? We see how well that's turning out.
Besides, it only takes one blockbuster event to make even a mild winter memorable. Case in point: the dynamic cooling storm of February 1998. I'll grant you that was a relatively narrow-scale event that didn't impact much of this board, but Winter 1997-1998 had been quite mild and uneventful (January featured +5 temps) until that event, which was the most spectacular snowstorm of my lifetime here on the Cumberland Plateau. And 1992-1993 was a complete dud before the blizzard. Temps were slightly below normal in December and February, but with no snow to show for it, and we were +6 in January during the heart of winter. Then came March...I'm pretty sure just about anyone on this board would be satisfied to torch through most of winter if it meant getting a repeat of the Blizzard of '93.
Agreed, "seasonal forecasts" mean nothing in the day to day.
You can look for model "trends" for up to 5 days out but it is not a forecast in my opinion...I don't think winter precip should really be "forecasted" unless there is big time model agreement 36-48 hours out and even then it can still be a bust either way, last year proved that BIG time.
I am ready for a "positive" bust like 2003 :) that type of bust hasn't happened in a while lol
Post by: joemomma on November 07, 2019, 04:13:37 PM
Post by: bugalou on November 07, 2019, 04:50:44 PM
Post by: Curt on November 07, 2019, 05:34:07 PM
There is actually a mention of winter weather with the arctic fropa next week for the west side of the state. Will be brief anafrontal style of event but encouraging for early November! ::snowman::
I think some light sleet/ freezing rain/ snow is a decent bet post front. It’s been on models globals for quite some time. Nothing to write home about but nice to see the arctic open again. We should be near record lows too.
Post by: Michael on November 08, 2019, 01:26:56 PM
12z Euro with 1st 10-Day clown map of the season (for the Plateau)Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: snowdog on November 08, 2019, 02:26:11 PM
Upper Level Low, may the odds be ever in your favor.
Post by: Michael on November 08, 2019, 03:32:34 PM
Upper Level Low, may the odds be ever in your favor.I need it to hit the Northern Valley area. Near Rogersville. I’ll gladly accept a dusting this early in the season lol.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: joemomma on November 08, 2019, 03:58:58 PM
Post by: StormNine on November 08, 2019, 05:52:44 PM
Last year it was a colder and snowier than normal Southeast which went not well at all.
2017-18 it was a battleground winter with both cold and warm periods which decently verified.
This winter it appears that most long-range forecasters are going with a 2017-18 and 2014-15 mix. Featuring a colder than normal Northern and Central USA (some including mine extend into NW Tennessee) and a warmer than normal area closer to the Southeast coast with most of Tennessee being in the in between zone with far East trending warmer than average and NW trending a bit colder than average.
It also appears that we return to another winter of wetter than average as well.
As far as my outlook I will still go with it but I would probably flip December and January with December being the mild one and January being the cold central and averageish to even a bit above average west and east of the two major mountain changes.
That means we get another shot at seeing if we can score in Feb/Early March.
Post by: BRUCE on November 10, 2019, 01:41:11 PM
Post by: StormNine on November 10, 2019, 01:43:23 PM
The final outlook
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
[attachimg=3]
Since we have out winter threat I will see if I can do better with the anomalies again. Since we are acting like a Nino, since we might have a more neutral NAO and at times negative, and since we should have an overall -EPO I will again go with a very similar forecast that I had last winter. We also have an active northern stream even more so than this time last year and with a low solar min may help counteract the impacts of climate change.
I truly think that once we get past Christmas or New Years at the latest that areas like Springfield, MO; St Louis, MO; Chicago, IL; Tulsa, OK; will have a brutal stretch as they will be sandwiched in part by the EPO ridge to the West and either some sort of Greenland Block or a West Atlantic Ridge to the East. This brutal cold will likely extend into Kentucky and Tennessee (especially the western portions) at times. I am encouraged by SST trends in the Central and Northeastern Pacific that could lead to an Aluentian Island Low (we had a H Pressure there the last few winters instead) that could strengthen the ridge along the coast of Alaska to Washington State.
Analog Wise I am looking at some mix of 1940-41, 1987-88, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2006-07, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2017-18 but with a slightly stronger SE Ridge that will push the coldest departures more towards the I-44 and I-55 zones instead of the I-81 zone.
Post Merge: November 10, 2019, 02:05:33 PM
The Wolly Worm said so as well.
My for fun departures:
Memphis:
DEC: +5.0F
JAN: - 1.5F
FEB: - 6.0F
Total Snowfall: 7.5 Inches
Nashville:
DEC: +4.5F
JAN: -0.5F
FEB: -4.5F
Total Snowfall: 9.0 Inches
Knoxville:
DEC: +4.9F
JAN: AVERAGE
FEB: -2.9F
Total Snowfall: 7.5 Inches
Chattanooga:
DEC: +4.5F
JAN: -0.2F
FEB: -2.5F
Total Snowfall: 4.9 Inches
Bowling Green, KY
DEC: +5.0F
JAN: AVERAGE
FEB: -4.9F
Total Snowfall: 7.9 Inches
Other Cities for fun:
Springfield, MO
DEC: +5.9F
JAN: -3.5F
FEB: -10.0F
Total Snowfall: 37.5 Inches
Salt Lake City, UT
DEC: +4.0F
JAN: -1.0F
FEB: +0.5F
Total Snowfall: 37.0 Inches
Atlanta, GA
DEC: +3.5F
JAN: +0.9F
FEB: -1.9F
Total Snowfall: 1.5 Inches
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: Mr. Golf on November 10, 2019, 07:53:22 PM
I am going all in. I am a winter weather weenie and we will have Fab Feb and will not be denied no longer ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::cold::Hi steven. I have a question. Which phases of mjo are the best for us in regards to winter weather? I think they are 8-2, but wasn't totally sure. People claim we are in a modoki elniño, but i didn't think so lol.
The final outlook
(Attachment Link)
(Attachment Link)
(Attachment Link)
Since we have out winter threat I will see if I can do better with the anomalies again. Since we are acting like a Nino, since we might have a more neutral NAO and at times negative, and since we should have an overall -EPO I will again go with a very similar forecast that I had last winter. We also have an active northern stream even more so than this time last year and with a low solar min may help counteract the impacts of climate change.
I truly think that once we get past Christmas or New Years at the latest that areas like Springfield, MO; St Louis, MO; Chicago, IL; Tulsa, OK; will have a brutal stretch as they will be sandwiched in part by the EPO ridge to the West and either some sort of Greenland Block or a West Atlantic Ridge to the East. This brutal cold will likely extend into Kentucky and Tennessee (especially the western portions) at times. I am encouraged by SST trends in the Central and Northeastern Pacific that could lead to an Aluentian Island Low (we had a H Pressure there the last few winters instead) that could strengthen the ridge along the coast of Alaska to Washington State.
Analog Wise I am looking at some mix of 1940-41, 1987-88, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2006-07, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2017-18 but with a slightly stronger SE Ridge that will push the coldest departures more towards the I-44 and I-55 zones instead of the I-81 zone.
Post Merge: November 10, 2019, 02:05:33 PM
The Wolly Worm said so as well.
My for fun departures:
Memphis:
DEC: +5.0F
JAN: - 1.5F
FEB: - 6.0F
Total Snowfall: 7.5 Inches
Nashville:
DEC: +4.5F
JAN: -0.5F
FEB: -4.5F
Total Snowfall: 9.0 Inches
Knoxville:
DEC: +4.9F
JAN: AVERAGE
FEB: -2.9F
Total Snowfall: 7.5 Inches
Chattanooga:
DEC: +4.5F
JAN: -0.2F
FEB: -2.5F
Total Snowfall: 4.9 Inches
Bowling Green, KY
DEC: +5.0F
JAN: AVERAGE
FEB: -4.9F
Total Snowfall: 7.9 Inches
Other Cities for fun:
Springfield, MO
DEC: +5.9F
JAN: -3.5F
FEB: -10.0F
Total Snowfall: 37.5 Inches
Salt Lake City, UT
DEC: +4.0F
JAN: -1.0F
FEB: +0.5F
Total Snowfall: 37.0 Inches
Atlanta, GA
DEC: +3.5F
JAN: +0.9F
FEB: -1.9F
Total Snowfall: 1.5 Inches
Post by: Curt on November 10, 2019, 09:02:09 PM
Hi steven. I have a question. Which phases of mjo are the best for us in regards to winter weather? I think they are 8-2, but wasn't totally sure. People claim we are in a modoki elniño, but i didn't think so lol.
MJO: 8-3 usually result in the colder phases East of the Rockies from Nov- Feb.
Here’s the El Niño Modoki index per JAMSTEC:
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191111/f50f36c3ac77adae7e4ca1a66f869428.jpg)
Post by: gcbama on November 12, 2019, 11:22:41 AM
Post by: Coach B on November 12, 2019, 11:26:25 AM
Jan 29th 2010 snowstorm....does anybody have a middle Tennessee snowfall accumulation map for that one? I am pretty sure I measured 8.5 inches of snow at my house (the last big one for me) but I have not been able to find any maps or discussions about middle Tennessee ….that was the 412 corridor heavy snow band, and my personal favorite snow storm :)
Looks like there are 309 pages to read about it! Seems some of us were motor mouths back in the day. ::whistling::
https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2373.0.html
I got 5.4" most of which fell in a 2.5 hour window that afternoon. It was a total whiteout for a good while.
Post by: BRUCE on November 12, 2019, 11:27:21 AM
Jan 29th 2010 snowstorm....does anybody have a middle Tennessee snowfall accumulation map for that one? I am pretty sure I measured 8.5 inches of snow at my house (the last big one for me) but I have not been able to find any maps or discussions about middle Tennessee ….that was the 412 corridor heavy snow band, and my personal favorite snow storm :)yea that was a good one... deform band set right up along I 40 corridor .. with times 2 inches per hour rates ... I got 9 inches on that one
Post by: Thundersnow on November 12, 2019, 11:52:45 AM
MJO: 8-3 usually result in the colder phases East of the Rockies from Nov- Feb.
Here’s the El Niño Modoki index per JAMSTEC:
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191111/f50f36c3ac77adae7e4ca1a66f869428.jpg)
(https://i.imgflip.com/3g3zou.jpg)
Post by: gcbama on November 12, 2019, 01:47:38 PM
Looks like there are 309 pages to read about it! Seems some of us were motor mouths back in the day. ::whistling::
https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2373.0.html
I got 5.4" most of which fell in a 2.5 hour window that afternoon. It was a total whiteout for a good while.
yeah I remember it started at 10 am in lewis/maury county line , took me 2 hours to drive 20 miles and in that 2 hours already had 4 inches of snow, heaviest event I have been a part of, had there been wind it would have been blizzard like. then it snowed moderate like half inch an hour rate for about 7 -8 more hours at the very tail end of the event got some icing but not too much maybe a tenth.
What amazes me is even DURING the event how many different opinions was going on in here lol. And we think we can predict something more than three days out sometimes lol.
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2019, 02:05:15 PM
How do you think the winter season will play out, TNWX?
Post by: Crockett on November 12, 2019, 02:11:46 PM
How do you think the winter season will play out, TNWX?
This was our winter. On to spring now. >:D
Post by: BRUCE on November 12, 2019, 02:43:24 PM
GFS looks mild, but not torchy, in the long run. It looks like we return to average temperatures next week. I'm cool with that.repeat last season? Lol
How do you think the winter season will play out, TNWX?
Post by: Drifter49 on November 12, 2019, 02:45:08 PM
Of course Dyersburg will get it’s obligatory 10 inches of sleet
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Post by: BRUCE on November 12, 2019, 02:51:41 PM
Double digit snowfall statewide, even the Choo choo!meh... waa... will screw someone lol
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Post by: StormNine on November 12, 2019, 04:06:36 PM
Another difference is an area of cooling in the North-Central Pacific is starting to form and that could help place an Aleutian Island Low which would likely boost the EPO ridge.
Yes, the Atlantic is still pretty warm, but there is a trend between October NAO which trended - and winter NAO. Meaning that the chance for at least a neutral averaging NAO is pretty good with some potential to even get a Greenland Block at times. Serve an -EPO with that and everyone from Chicago to Dallas to Knoxville (even probably Chattanooga and Huntsville, AL) and points in between are happy.
Post by: Mr. Golf on November 12, 2019, 06:00:42 PM
Post by: Thundersnow on November 13, 2019, 06:04:58 AM
The last five years have brought both the warmest and the fifth warmest winter on record for Nashville.
What’s interesting about the other winters in the top five is that they also occurred within a few years of each other. In fact, the second and third warmest winters (which were the first and second warmest before 2016-2017 took the lead) were in back to back winters, 1948-49 and 1949-50.
It’s interesting to note that the following winter, 1950-51, brought historic storms to Tennessee as well as record cold, which are still on the books. Perhaps that winter was an outlier, although even January 1951 was very warm until the last few days and the first few days of February, which brought a historic winter weather sequence and deep freeze, unmatched by anything else in living memory or the records books.
The fourth warmest was just a few years later in 1956-57. Other than the anomaly of 1950-51, this was a very warm period.
Things changed in a big way in the winter of 1959-60, which still stands as the snowiest winter on record at a whopping 38.5” for Nashville. Then the 1960s and 1970s brought several very cold, snowy winters (not every year during that period, but still several notable examples).
Are we ever going to go back into a cycle of colder, snowier winters? Time will tell.
Post by: BRUCE on November 13, 2019, 06:36:02 AM
https://www.wkrn.com/special-reports/how-do-the-temperatures-of-the-last-10-winters-stack-up/i would like to say we’re heading in colder winters maybe... but you got add climate change into the equation...
The last five years have brought both the warmest and the fifth warmest winter on record for Nashville.
What’s interesting about the other winters in the top five is that they also occurred within a few years of each other. In fact, the second and third warmest winters (which were the first and second warmest before 2016-2017 took the lead) were in back to back winters, 1948-49 and 1949-50.
It’s interesting to note that the following winter, 1950-51, brought historic storms to Tennessee as well as record cold, which are still on the books. Perhaps that winter was an outlier, although even January 1951 was very warm until the last few days and the first few days of February, which brought a historic winter weather sequence and deep freeze, unmatched by anything else in living memory or the records books.
The fourth warmest was just a few years later in 1956-57. Other than the anomaly of 1950-51, this was a very warm period.
Things changed in a big way in the winter of 1959-60, which still stands as the snowiest winter on record at a whopping 38.5” for Nashville. Then the 1960s and 1970s brought several very cold, snowy winters (not every year during that period, but still several notable examples).
Are we ever going to go back into a cycle of colder, snowier winters? Time will tell.
Post by: Curt on November 13, 2019, 07:47:13 AM
https://www.wkrn.com/special-reports/how-do-the-temperatures-of-the-last-10-winters-stack-up/
The last five years have brought both the warmest and the fifth warmest winter on record for Nashville.
What’s interesting about the other winters in the top five is that they also occurred within a few years of each other. In fact, the second and third warmest winters (which were the first and second warmest before 2016-2017 took the lead) were in back to back winters, 1948-49 and 1949-50.
It’s interesting to note that the following winter, 1950-51, brought historic storms to Tennessee as well as record cold, which are still on the books. Perhaps that winter was an outlier, although even January 1951 was very warm until the last few days and the first few days of February, which brought a historic winter weather sequence and deep freeze, unmatched by anything else in living memory or the records books.
The fourth warmest was just a few years later in 1956-57. Other than the anomaly of 1950-51, this was a very warm period.
Things changed in a big way in the winter of 1959-60, which still stands as the snowiest winter on record at a whopping 38.5” for Nashville. Then the 1960s and 1970s brought several very cold, snowy winters (not every year during that period, but still several notable examples).
Are we ever going to go back into a cycle of colder, snowier winters? Time will tell.
Those periods match up nicely with the changes in the Atlantic Multidecadonal Oscillation.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191113/a5a4e19895041806031ae7993a03baa2.jpg)
#climatechange
Post by: BRUCE on November 14, 2019, 05:37:21 AM
Post by: Eric on November 14, 2019, 07:58:27 AM
Latest Epps long range will make most folks very happy around here... ::cold::
Only Epps I'm aware of....
(https://media.giphy.com/media/xT9DPjoFZaY3YBXoc0/giphy.gif)
Post by: StormNine on November 21, 2019, 05:09:49 PM
That Arctic Blocking looks like Gold. If the increased heights were closer to the West Coast of Canada and the USA we would be absolutely golden headed into winter.
Post by: Curt on November 21, 2019, 06:20:30 PM
Maybe we will actually fare better this go around than one day of arctic air vs last year’s fiasco.
Post by: Mr. Golf on November 21, 2019, 09:14:02 PM
Don’t look now....but a major SSW (strat warm) looks possible by early December. Hehe.Curt, i know JB has been excited about the chances of one like he usually is about anything like that lol. The -pna, imo, won't help us for a while due to the fact it puts too much troughing along the west coast. Not sure if its attributable to the unfavorable mjo phases. I believe we should have a few winter storm chances here, but i am always happy with just one, since we are in the south.
Maybe we will actually fare better this go around than one day of arctic air vs last year’s fiasco.
Post by: TNHunter on November 22, 2019, 09:02:50 AM
Post by: Curt on November 22, 2019, 09:11:17 AM
Curt, i know JB has been excited about the chances of one like he usually is about anything like that lol. The -pna, imo, won't help us for a while due to the fact it puts too much troughing along the west coast. Not sure if its attributable to the unfavorable mjo phases. I believe we should have a few winter storm chances here, but i am always happy with just one, since we are in the south.
If a SSW helps, the lag time is usually a few weeks behind. We wouldn’t see effects- if any- until mid December. That’s why a SSW in February is pointless for our area. The SSW of December 1984- early 1985 is by far the best example of cashing in. They don’t always work out though depending on size and position of displacement.
Post by: Mr. Golf on November 22, 2019, 03:10:07 PM
If a SSW helps, the lag time is usually a few weeks behind. We wouldn’t see effects- if any- until mid December. That’s why a SSW in February is pointless for our area. The SSW of December 1984- early 1985 is by far the best example of cashing in. They don’t always work out though depending on size and position of displacement.I agree curt. SSW events are tricky. We had a major event last winter but other things threw it off from what i understand. 84 85 was one of the best examples. I was only 5 so i dont remember it very good. Dr. Furtado from UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA said the Pacific has to cooperate for the SSW to be effective for us. He posts alot on twitter.
Post by: StormNine on November 23, 2019, 10:15:26 AM
A -PNA, forming -EPO ridge near the southern Alaskan coast, and some Northern Hemisphere blocking should bring the cold. An active subtropical jet due to a borderline El-Nino should provide the moisture.
Congrats Sierra Nevada and the ski resorts of Utah, Colorado, and northern New Mexico.
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 23, 2019, 10:53:23 AM
The end of November/beginning of December pattern looks to really favor the out West Ski Resorts that did very well last winter.
A -PNA, forming -EPO ridge near the southern Alaskan coast, and some Northern Hemisphere blocking should bring the cold. An active subtropical jet due to a borderline El-Nino should provide the moisture.
Congrats Sierra Nevada and the ski resorts of Utah, Colorado, and northern New Mexico.
Yup, heading to Tahoe and Mammoth for PSIA clinics, Glen Plake being one which I am super stoked about. Snowfall has been pretty rare this season in the Sierras so this up coming cycle should hopefully help. But I have my own concerns there going into the extended. Rockies are in the right spot, esp CO. December may start off a bit slow and ramp up with some chances of notable snowfall. For now let it rip along the West coast!
Post by: Thundersnow on November 23, 2019, 11:30:16 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/3hbse8.jpg)
Post by: schneitzeit on November 23, 2019, 04:57:44 PM
Post by: snowdog on November 23, 2019, 06:15:38 PM
Curse you for bringing that meme in here
I agree. One week ban for Thundersnow.
Post by: Curt on November 24, 2019, 05:52:26 PM
Post by: Flash on November 24, 2019, 06:11:44 PM
QBO quickly going easterly(negative). That’s a huge change from this time last year at the same time.
Yeah, that was a fatal nail most winter forecasts missed due to the timing of event vs. issuance. Let's hope this pattern continues.
Post by: Mr. Golf on November 24, 2019, 07:07:36 PM
QBO quickly going easterly(negative). That’s a huge change from this time last year at the same time.Curt, where do you go to find out how the qbo is doing? Where did you find that out?
Post by: StormNine on November 26, 2019, 04:52:45 AM
Yeah, that was a fatal nail most winter forecasts missed due to the timing of event vs. issuance. Let's hope this pattern continues.
That plus the -PNA drop in February was what doomed a lot of forecasts. There was still plently of cold air but the QBO and that -PNA placed that cold air in Western Canada into the Pacific NW and Upper Midwest. Great Falls, MT recorded a -27F departure in Feb. We weren't all that far away from a Fab Feb last winter.
Post by: Mr. Golf on November 26, 2019, 08:33:51 PM
Post by: StormNine on November 27, 2019, 03:33:16 PM
As predicted by several we will probably have a mild December Nationwide.
It is the classic relaxation although it doesn't look quite as warm as 2015 or even 2018. Probably 2014 is the better analog with alternating mild conditions with some modified cold shots for good measure.
Post by: Michael on November 27, 2019, 05:54:43 PM
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Post by: BRUCE on November 27, 2019, 09:12:46 PM
Interesting take on December from Ryan Maue’s group https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JHCuqU2dykthe mjo seems to be pretty stuck... and is in no hurry to get to the phase it needs to be to get some winter fun... ryan maue is oneof the bigger if not the biggest hype forecasters with winter weather... listen to him every winter...think we would be heading towards the second ice age... lol
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Post by: Michael on November 27, 2019, 09:15:53 PM
the mjo seems to be pretty stuck... and is in no hurry to get to the phase it needs to be to get some winter fun... ryan maue is on of the bigger if not the biggest hype forecasters with winter weather... listen to him every winter...think we would be heading towards the second ice age... lolI thought that it was Bastardi who was the hype master.
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Post by: Curt on November 27, 2019, 10:31:41 PM
I thought that it was Bastardi who was the hype master.You are correct. Ryan is NO hype. In fact, he’s no charisma. He’s a straight shooter.
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Post by: StormNine on November 28, 2019, 12:47:46 PM
We need ridging off the West Coast of Canada or the USA and not over the islands or the far western part of Alaska. Without a strong ENSO signal, the MJO becomes more vital than even usual.
Post by: Mr. Golf on November 28, 2019, 07:50:50 PM
MJO and the position of that ridge off the coast of Alaska will tell the tale of how winter after December 20th goes more so than the NAO/AO or even SSW events.Steven, happy Thanksgiving. What are your thoughts moving forward after dec 20th?
We need ridging off the West Coast of Canada or the USA and not over the islands or the far western part of Alaska. Without a strong ENSO signal, the MJO becomes more vital than even usual.
Post by: BRUCE on November 28, 2019, 08:05:38 PM
Steven, happy Thanksgiving. What are your thoughts moving forward after dec 20th?I would say pretty much the same I would imagine... ::sleeping::
Post by: Curt on November 29, 2019, 11:27:06 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191129/34846056b8dd518c155766bfeef40468.jpg)
Post by: snowdog on November 30, 2019, 08:28:34 PM
Post by: BRUCE on November 30, 2019, 09:06:19 PM
Bastardi comparing modeled strat warming in late December to the one that gave us a frigid January in 77.there will never be another 77 January type winter in our life time ... unfortunately
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2019, 10:13:29 PM
Bastardi comparing modeled strat warming in late December to the one that gave us a frigid January in 77.
I would be an insult to armchair meteorologists if I labeled myself as such, but I would like to state my opinion that I hardly take Bastardi seriously.
Post by: Michael on December 01, 2019, 04:06:41 AM
Monday would be a good time to visit Gatlinburg.
Guarantee 441 through Smokies will probably close late Sunday.
See @SmokiesRodsNPS on Twitter for road conditions.
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Post by: Charles L. on December 01, 2019, 04:39:52 AM
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
[attachimg=3]
Post by: vanster67 on December 01, 2019, 05:13:54 AM
Post by: Charles L. on December 01, 2019, 05:39:17 AM
I will take that and run.
I really think you have a great chance at seeing 1” of snow out of this.
Wouldn’t shock me at all to see OHX issue a Winter Wx Advisory for Cumberland, Putnam, Fentress, Pickett, and Overton counties.
They did have a SPS our early this morning for you guys, but they have since deleted it.
Post by: vanster67 on December 01, 2019, 05:54:03 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on December 01, 2019, 06:36:18 AM
Post by: snowdog on December 01, 2019, 06:44:05 AM
I would be an insult to armchair meteorologists if I labeled myself as such, but I would like to state my opinion that I hardly take Bastardi seriously.
I get that, but he's pretty good at what he does. People just need to remember he's going off modeled evolution which is likely incorrect and strat warmings have a mind of their own.
Likely we don't see a Jan 77 repeat, but their is optimism we may see a cold start to January.
Post by: vanster67 on December 01, 2019, 07:14:43 AM
Post by: Charles L. on December 01, 2019, 08:15:18 AM
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
[attachimg=3]
Post by: BRUCE on December 01, 2019, 08:48:29 AM
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 01, 2019, 10:25:12 AM
welcome to meteorological winter... let the disappointment begin... >:DWe can handle disappointment, just like you do with all them tornadoes you pull for that never materialize.Go look for a tornado! ::rofl::
Post by: BRUCE on December 01, 2019, 11:41:36 AM
We can handle disappointment, just like you do when the all them tornados you pull for never materialize.Go look for a tornado! ::rofl::come on near of finding a tornado than a little snow flake
Post Merge: December 01, 2019, 11:53:25 AM
We can handle disappointment, just like you do when the all them tornados you pull for never materialize.Go look for a tornado! ::rofl::besides. I like winters storms as much if not more than you do no matter what ur name is... climate change has taken its toll on my winter excitement and such ...
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 01, 2019, 12:51:55 PM
come on near of finding a tornado than a little snow flakeThat's your opinion, I highly doubt you like winter any more than me or anyone else on here. And I don't expect much here tonight in my area for your information. But the areas on the plateau have a chance and this is a winter forum. I am actually pulling for them on a winter forum, I don't think we are going to fall to pieces if it doesn't materialize. But it would be nice to talk about early season chances for some without you acting like you know what's going to happen, based on some of your predictions over the years the plateau kids need to break out the sleds!!!! ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Post Merge: December 01, 2019, 11:53:25 AM
besides. I like winters storms as much if not more than you do no matter what ur name is... climate change has taken its toll on my winter excitement and such ...
Post by: StormNine on December 01, 2019, 01:02:27 PM
I think 2006 and 2014 are the best analogs for this month.
In the short term the Cumberland Plateau has some potential tomorrow morning to get a little early December gift.
Post by: cgauxknox on December 01, 2019, 03:10:44 PM
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019
...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
.A storm system will produce widespread precipitation across the southern Appalachians Tonight through Monday night. Temperatures
will be cold enough to produce significant snowfall over the higher elevations, especially in places above 3000 feet. Locations across the Cumberland Plateau at or below 3000 feet will see less
snowfall, however still measurable amounts. In addition to snow, winds are expected to remain breezy in the mountains which will lead to hazardous driving conditions.
Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Northwest Greene-Washington-
Northwest Carter-Lee-Scott-Russell-
Including the cities of Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale,
Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston,
Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport,
Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Greeneville, Johnson City,
Elizabethton, Rose Hill, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye,
Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon
239 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
Post by: Flash on December 01, 2019, 04:29:35 PM
December is looking to run mild, but not as mild as 2018 and definitely not as mild as 2015. We will get some cool shots in between and it doesn't look like an extreme constant blowtorch. The subtropical jet is going to get active as well. Let us get through any unfavorable MJO runs and the unfavorable Pacific and it looks like we should have a chance to get things more favorable by around New Years.
I think 2006 and 2014 are the best analogs for this month.
In the short term the Cumberland Plateau has some potential tomorrow morning to get a little early December gift.
2006 and 2007 were pretty toasty for BNA from what I can recall. 2014 was more seasonal though still AN. Speaking of 2014, if you broaden out 'winter' to November-March, the 2014-15 analog looks decent through two months. Outside QBO/MJO doing something drastic, it makes sense to think patterns will take their 30-45 day turns with a weak ENSO. Either way, I expect December to be overcast mild as opposed to sunny warm.
Post by: BRUCE on December 01, 2019, 05:27:44 PM
Post by: Mr. Golf on December 01, 2019, 05:47:22 PM
Post by: BRUCE on December 01, 2019, 08:24:47 PM
December is usually pretty warm in weak niño or neutral patterns. I guess its about the mjo, qbo, and other things moving forward. The SSW will probably take a while to get going because, imo, the qbo is still westerly and usually easterly is best. Its fun tracking winter storms when we have chances here, but we are in the south.yeah we. Got a ways to go get the patternwe want mr. golf. Agree...
Post by: Matthew on December 01, 2019, 08:55:18 PM
If 2014. 2015 is a good analog... going have to wait till March to get the goods ::snowman::... that’s how that winter went
Bruce you should start your own wx site. Just call it fantasy tornado outbreaks. Spare us all your negative crap you spew.
Post by: BRUCE on December 01, 2019, 09:11:42 PM
someone sounds like they got their little panties in wad... what happened ? Bama loose ? Lmao
Bruce you should start your own wx site. Just call it fantasy tornado outbreaks. Spare us all your negative crap you spew.
Post by: Drifter49 on December 01, 2019, 09:26:20 PM
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Post by: schneitzeit on December 01, 2019, 09:34:25 PM
Post by: Charles L. on December 02, 2019, 02:22:05 AM
Post by: StormNine on December 02, 2019, 04:59:50 AM
Classic El-Nino like December pattern mid-month. Gulf of Alaska trough, subtropical jet signal with the weaker heights from Baja California to Texas, and Pacific air flooding North America.
Looks cloudy and damp so that will prevent us from going full blown torch and more of a situation like Flash described. A lot of 55/40F like days with clouds.
Post by: BRUCE on December 02, 2019, 05:36:34 AM
(Attachment Link)::sleeping::
Classic El-Nino like December pattern mid-month. Gulf of Alaska trough, subtropical jet signal with the weaker heights from Baja California to Texas, and Pacific air flooding North America.
Looks cloudy and damp so that will prevent us from going full blown torch and more of a situation like Flash described. A lot of 55/40F like days with clouds.
Post by: Curt on December 02, 2019, 07:36:02 AM
::sleeping:: ::sleeping::Just a thought here, Bruce. I get why someone might give you some grief when you dump all over their post despite the fact they could so the same every time you post about a severe weather event that doesn’t happen. Add in the difficulty to read one of your posts and it makes even more sense. Maybe you can show the same courtesy others give you despite? Maybe if you take some time to use some restraint and post substance over fragment, others will react differently. You’re knowledgeable and can add value which others would appreciate.
Post by: BRUCE on December 02, 2019, 08:18:00 AM
Just a thought here, Bruce. I get why someone might give you some grief when you dump all over their post despite the fact they could so the same every time you post about a severe weather event that doesn’t happen. Add in the difficulty to read one of your posts and it makes even more sense. Maybe you can show the same courtesy others give you despite? Maybe if you take some time to use some restraint and post substance over fragment, others will react differently. You’re knowledgeable and can add value which others would appreciate.curt to be honest... it’s hard bro... when ur as passionate as I am when it comes to weather... I’m the same way when it comes to my sports too. Don’t mean to be such a influence on this forum ... It’s hard to hide my passion when it comes to weather . There is nothing we can do about either ... just maybe I need step back and take a long break since we’re heading into a crummy pattern , besides work fixing to get extremely buisy for me
Post by: Thundersnow on December 02, 2019, 08:32:29 AM
Post by: snowdog on December 02, 2019, 06:04:15 PM
The biggest fights on TNWX happen in December. Last year, I got into it with a flat earther in what became a days-long charade of sh1tposting
Some people believe we live in a simulation and they can make interesting arguments for it. Oddly that viewpoint isnt viewed with nearly the disdain that flat Earth is. Why?
No, I don't believe it is flat or a simulation, but I find it interesting people get so worked up over others believing it is flat.
Our current lack of understanding of gravity has led us to make wild assumptions about dark energy and dark matter, neither of which have been found. No matter what you believe on this topic, a lot of it is built on faith.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 03, 2019, 07:26:20 PM
Post by: Curt on December 03, 2019, 10:51:05 PM
GFS has us in a really active pattern in the mid and long range.
Starting to see some major league arctic air entering the plains on the long range ensembles mid month like near 45 degree BN departures and actual temps nearing 30 to 35 below zero. Some of that will almost certainly bleed down southward. Being in a non La Niña, there perhaps won’t be too large of an impediment.
Post by: Mr. Golf on December 03, 2019, 11:16:22 PM
Starting to see some major league arctic air entering the plains on the long range ensembles mid month like near 45 degree BN departures and actual temps nearing 30 to 35 below zero. Some of that will almost certainly bleed down southward. Being in a non La Niña, there perhaps won’t be too large of an impediment.
Curt, the upcoming pattern is more Pacific driven if we get cold. Elniños usually are more Atlantic driven, meaning the nao has a tendency to be negative and ao if we are to get cold from there. I find it interesting because the ao and nao are both positive until further notice.
Post by: Curt on December 03, 2019, 11:23:32 PM
Curt, the upcoming pattern is more Pacific driven if we get cold. Elniños usually are more Atlantic driven, meaning the nao has a tendency to be negative and ao if we are to get cold from there. I find it interesting because the ao and nao are both positive until further notice.
Modified Pacific through about day 10 yes. Past that is pure arctic if this is what pans out per Euro Control via temp anomalies. That’s not Pacific air not even close. There are other hints of the same past day 10 as well. Effects of a strat warm and null phase of the MJO? Could be. It’s 10 days off but hints are there esp in the northern plains.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191204/c73760a54526ce0eddca69915929d2e7.jpg)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 04, 2019, 09:15:10 AM
Post by: Tom26 on December 04, 2019, 09:58:52 AM
Post by: gcbama on December 04, 2019, 10:44:06 AM
Here's hoping that this winter is full of snow for everybody. It looks promising right now according to forecasts that I have seen.
after last seasons total bust for me ( not even a tenth of an inch ) I will get excited when all models continue to show 5-7 inches of snow less than 24 hours away LOL!!!!
Post by: Thundersnow on December 04, 2019, 10:45:31 AM
I will get excited when all models continue to show 5-7 inches of snow less than 24 hours away LOL!!!!
And, be careful even then. That scenario has bitten us a few times in the past.
Post by: Tom26 on December 04, 2019, 11:02:19 AM
And, be careful even then. That scenario has bitten us a few times in the past.
Definitely this. I remember the storm back in Jan of 2010. Supposed to get all snow, 8 inches, and ended up being a slushy mess of 3.
Post by: gcbama on December 04, 2019, 12:08:19 PM
Definitely this. I remember the storm back in Jan of 2010. Supposed to get all snow, 8 inches, and ended up being a slushy mess of 3.
well actually we had around 9 inches of snow and just a bit of mixing at the end in that storm where I live....the 412 corridor was right along the transition zone so precip was HEAVY that day. interesting that I can never find any graphics of local snow accumulation for that Jan 2010 snow
Post by: Tom26 on December 04, 2019, 12:15:46 PM
well actually we had around 9 inches of snow and just a bit of mixing at the end in that storm where I live....the 412 corridor was right along the transition zone so precip was HEAVY that day. interesting that I can never find any graphics of local snow accumulation for that Jan 2010 snow
Yeah, some did well. Jefferson County, TN seemed to be the dividing line in East Tn between a lot of snow and half snow/half sleet. Just goes to show that you also can never predict how the entire state will do, even day of an event.
Post by: gcbama on December 04, 2019, 12:23:27 PM
Yeah, some did well. Jefferson County, TN seemed to be the dividing line in East Tn between a lot of snow and half snow/half sleet. Just goes to show that you also can never predict how the entire state will do, even day of an event.
part of the problem all local tv stations have is they stick with their modeling even during the event instead of watching the radar trends while it is happening
Post by: Tom26 on December 04, 2019, 12:26:51 PM
part of the problem all local tv stations have is they stick with their modeling even during the event instead of watching the radar trends while it is happening
For sure. And it often leads these same guys to be wrong. That's why I prefer to not listen much to certain TV mets, and instead engage in conversations with people like you guys and with mets that aren't on TV.
Post by: bugalou on December 04, 2019, 01:04:45 PM
Better now than January though.
Post by: gcbama on December 04, 2019, 01:58:44 PM
For sure. And it often leads these same guys to be wrong. That's why I prefer to not listen much to certain TV mets, and instead engage in conversations with people like you guys and with mets that aren't on TV.
James Spann in B-Ham is King of mets in my opinion, not a day goes by that I don't watch the weather xtreme video he puts out lol
Post by: Crockett on December 04, 2019, 02:09:28 PM
Next couple weeks looks to be good golfing and fishing weather. In my case construction weather as I am building a pergola in my back yard. ::blowtorch::
Better now than January though.
Gotta say, I'm not seeing it. Next week looks pretty darned cold after the cold front rolls through late Monday/early Tuesday, and the following week looks pretty much average for this time of year.
Post by: Tom26 on December 04, 2019, 04:19:45 PM
Gotta say, I'm not seeing it. Next week looks pretty darned cold after the cold front rolls through late Monday/early Tuesday, and the following week looks pretty much average for this time of year.
I was told today by a very reputable, close (non tv) meteorologist to keep an eye on Dec 15-25 for a potential snow system to roll through. Signals look good for it, all the way from Tn north
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 04, 2019, 04:24:00 PM
Post by: Matthew on December 04, 2019, 04:48:59 PM
Next couple weeks looks to be good golfing and fishing weather. In my case construction weather as I am building a pergola in my back yard. ::blowtorch::
Better now than January though.
I must be looking at wrong info. To me it looks chilly to cold to wet at least. Average to below average temps. Especially next week.
Post by: StormNine on December 04, 2019, 04:56:02 PM
What looks like zonal flow blah with a subtropical jet to our south like December 2006 is now an arctic push with a possible subtropical jet to our south and a pattern more similar to December 2009 although we don't have the help from the -NAO that 2009 featured.
Post by: bugalou on December 04, 2019, 06:58:53 PM
https://twitter.com/NWSMemphis/status/1201573059821473793?s=20
(https://twitter.com/NWSMemphis/status/1201573059821473793?s=20)
Post by: mamMATTus on December 04, 2019, 07:00:57 PM
Post by: StormNine on December 04, 2019, 07:07:41 PM
Already seeing forums and FB groups start with the chatter of late next week's *potential* system. What does the climatology say for this time of year for Tennessee? It's just about an overwhelming no. I'm keeping expectations very low. I've been through this letdown one too many times.
Mid-December isn't extremely climo favorable but there have been some events. December 2009 was decent from Nashville and especially from the Cumberland Plateau and eastward. December 2010 had some hits including Christmas Eve Night and NW TN had a hit in Early Dec 2013.
December 2000 and 2002 had a few West TN hits and last winter had an ice event for the KY/TN border and snow for far NE TN.
Climo is kinda favorable for West TN and far NE TN, but not as much elsewhere.
Post by: Crockett on December 04, 2019, 07:19:06 PM
Just going from the CPC and a tweet MEG posted (along with some other mets I follow on twitter, but I will just link this one).
https://twitter.com/NWSMemphis/status/1201573059821473793?s=20
(https://twitter.com/NWSMemphis/status/1201573059821473793?s=20)
I believe that's geared primarily towards the warm-up that's coming our way Sunday-Monday ahead of the next system.
Post by: mamMATTus on December 04, 2019, 09:04:05 PM
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2019, 05:44:18 AM
Today I finally took the snow-rated all-terrain tires off of my Subaru that I put on 3 years ago while living in Colorado. This can only mean one thing...it's going to snow of course.and last nites 0z euro run was ever so close to that... albeit it’s day 10....
Post by: marjl21 on December 05, 2019, 06:55:06 AM
1050+ high over MN/WI + slow moving phasing southern stream vort = 1-2’+ (yes, feet) from OK through AR and NW TN.
Post by: Tom26 on December 05, 2019, 07:25:00 AM
Don’t look at the at the 6z GFS unless you like to look at weenie maps ::shaking_finger::
1050+ high over MN/WI + slow moving phasing southern stream vort = 1-2’+ (yes, feet) from OK through AR and NW TN.
Here she comes
Post by: gcbama on December 05, 2019, 08:11:32 AM
Already seeing forums and FB groups start with the chatter of late next week's *potential* system. What does the climatology say for this time of year for Tennessee? It's just about an overwhelming no. I'm keeping expectations very low. I've been through this letdown one too many times.
100% agreed...10 days away is crazy to even think about a model being anything close to accurate...and even at that I saw mostly ice/sleet for mid tn on that one with snow in north ark and Kentucky.( typical)
But it at least possibly signifies good trends down the road :)
Post by: Flash on December 05, 2019, 08:20:41 AM
Post by: Eric on December 05, 2019, 08:20:59 AM
Post by: cgauxknox on December 05, 2019, 08:36:07 AM
I knew the roof would come off this place with that GFS run. ::bagoverhead::::cold:: ::yum:: ::coffee:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::rant:: ::cliff::
Post by: gcbama on December 05, 2019, 08:49:52 AM
From what I can tell looks like there was snow on the north side of the low for a while and then slow moving wrap around bands on the west side of the low as it passed by :) widespread 8-12+ inch snows for everybody
I think my dream scenario is to have mid 20's and a massive low near new orleans/moving northeast so mid tn gets the north side precip and the big wrap around bands on the west as it moves northeast...kinda like a nor easter off the jersey coast from when I was kid :).
Post by: Coach B on December 05, 2019, 09:03:10 AM
I think my dream scenario is to have mid 20's and a massive low near new orleans/moving northeast so mid tn gets the north side precip
The January 9-10th, 2011 storm was pretty good for S mid TN. Temp was solidly in the 20s, precip all snow, widespread 8-12", and roads were covered for 6 or 7 days. I would like a storm like that about every other year. ::snowman::
Post by: Thundersnow on December 05, 2019, 09:31:18 AM
Best storm of my childhood- Jan '88. Wide swath of heavy snow accumulations really from OK to NC, including TN.
We go about 8 inches west of Nashville.
(https://www.weather.gov/images/hun/stormsurveys/jan1988snow/sdaccummap.jpg)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 05, 2019, 09:33:00 AM
Post by: gcbama on December 05, 2019, 09:36:03 AM
This is when we reminiscence about past storms. ;D
Best storm of my childhood- Jan '88. Wide swath of heavy snow accumulations really from OK to NC, including most of TN.
We go about 8 inches west of Nashville.
Favorite Tennessee storm is either 2003 ...we got 8+ , and Jan 2010 got right around 8-9 inches.
Favorite New Jersey storm, I was a little kid in late 80's early 90's and there were a few nor easters that were around 12-16 inches of snow each time :)
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2019, 09:39:01 AM
Here it is just for kicks...since it won’t appear again. And never mind the 2 inches of freezing rain up the 40 corridor as well.
Post by: snowdog on December 05, 2019, 09:54:41 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191205/afd42df862c58df549686a6b6021d888.jpg)
Here it is just for kicks...since it won’t appear again. And never mind the 2 inches of freezing rain up the 40 corridor as well.
If this verifies, watch party at Dyer's house.
Post by: Thundersnow on December 05, 2019, 09:56:44 AM
For newcomers, this is where we amuse ourselves from the fantasies put out by models. Don't even blink an eye of disappointment when this goes away on subsequent runs.
Post by: gcbama on December 05, 2019, 10:09:28 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191205/afd42df862c58df549686a6b6021d888.jpg)
Here it is just for kicks...since it won’t appear again. And never mind the 2 inches of freezing rain up the 40 corridor as well.
Honestly I would NEVER want 30 inches of snow anywhere around here.....people would be in serious danger of that.
but even on this dream run , my county still gets screwed lol.
Post by: Tom26 on December 05, 2019, 10:23:52 AM
This is when we reminiscence about past storms. ;D
Best storm of my childhood- Jan '88. Wide swath of heavy snow accumulations really from OK to NC, including TN.
We go about 8 inches west of Nashville.
(https://www.weather.gov/images/hun/stormsurveys/jan1988snow/sdaccummap.jpg)
My all-time favorite snowstorm was in late January of 2016... we got three feet plus here in MD. I remember snow angels/snow cream/snowmen. I helped my Uncle clear out the stuff at his house and at the post office. Even sweeter memories as he ended up passing away from cancer a year later
My favorite in TN was back in 2009 when we ended up with 8 inches in East TN and were out of school the entire week.
Post by: gcbama on December 05, 2019, 10:27:39 AM
My all-time favorite snowstorm was in late January of 2016... we got three feet plus here in MD. I remember snow angels/snow cream/snowmen. I helped my Uncle clear out the stuff at his house and at the post office. Even sweeter memories as he ended up passing away from cancer a year later
My favorite in TN was back in 2009 when we ended up with 8 inches in East TN and were out of school the entire week.
My family in Jersey was sending me pictures of that blizzard....sure was something....they got 29 inches in that one
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2019, 10:28:17 AM
Post by: Eric on December 05, 2019, 10:32:21 AM
12z GFS says everyone enjoy your cool 45° rain
This is the most likely outcome.
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2019, 10:34:44 AM
12z GFS says everyone enjoy your cool 45° rain
Now that sounds reasonable. And I will be watching every model run until then. (Not).
Post by: Beth on December 05, 2019, 12:46:28 PM
Post by: gcbama on December 05, 2019, 12:57:47 PM
Not getting my hopes up. But we did have a couple of really decent snows right before Christmas I think it was 2010. I don’t think Nash got as much as we did in Dickson, but it was really pretty ::snowman::
that was the first white Christmas I remember here in Lewis county...it was great :)
Post Merge: December 05, 2019, 03:52:24 PM
I had a crazy thought....in Tennessee it is almost a better chance of severe weather than snow in December lol
Post by: StormNine on December 05, 2019, 06:14:02 PM
The Pacific setup here is actually pretty good. If you had some Greenland Blocking we would be a pot of gold in the extended.
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 05, 2019, 06:32:45 PM
(Attachment Link)Maybe we can score sometime in December without a -noa. I would love to have some blocking as well, but we can sometimes score without it if we have a good +PNA and good placement on big ridge out west. Of course timing is everything. At least we still got plenty of winter left. I hope we can keep the southern stream active throughout winter, if we can do that our chances go up that we have some winter weather at some point. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
The Pacific setup here is actually pretty good. If you had some Greenland Blocking we would be a pot of gold in the extended.
Post by: gcbama on December 05, 2019, 09:18:50 PM
Maybe we can score sometime in December without a -noa. I would love to have some blocking as well, but we can sometimes score without it if we have a good +PNA and good placement on big ridge out west. Of course timing is everything. At least we still got plenty of winter left. I hope we can keep the southern stream active throughout winter, if we can do that our chances go up that we have some winter weather at some point. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
I don't see how anything could ever be worse than last year with not even a tenth of an inch.....so this year HAS to be better LOL
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 06, 2019, 12:06:05 AM
I don't see how anything could ever be worse than last year with not even a tenth of an inch.....so this year HAS to be better LOLI wasn't comparing years, every year is a different animal in Tennessee. I have lived my entire life here, I have seen horrible winters and tremendous ones. Winter weather in Tennessee can vary from west to east or north to south. Rarely does all of Tennessee score a statewide snow. Many years parts of the state do much better than the others. But for all of Tennessee there are good years and bad years and lots of near misses. I think that is one of the main reasons people like it so much around here because we get just enough of it to enjoy it and not enough of it too get tired of it. Nothing changes like the weather. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Post by: BRUCE on December 06, 2019, 06:14:14 AM
Post Merge: December 06, 2019, 07:35:14 AM
Just another 100 miles further south with surface lo placement ... be catching some nice wrap around along backside of the slp... ::coffee::
Post by: Curt on December 06, 2019, 10:30:34 AM
Post by: Beth on December 06, 2019, 11:05:54 AM
TuesdayRain showers likely before 8am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 8am and 9am, then a chance of rain showers after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Post by: Charles L. on December 07, 2019, 11:14:22 AM
Post by: Beth on December 07, 2019, 01:56:40 PM
I will take the 12z CMC please and thank you.Yes! But the reality will probably be GA gets it again like last Dec. ::pondering::
Post by: Michael on December 07, 2019, 08:48:10 PM
https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/nam-218-all-ky-instant_ptype-1575763200-1575979200-1576065600-10.gif
Ok. I stink at making weather loop GIFs. Any suggestions to improve this?
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Post by: Charles L. on December 07, 2019, 09:56:07 PM
Post by: Curt on December 07, 2019, 10:19:59 PM
I will take that 0z GFS run too.
Gfs ramping up within 72 hours. 18z euro finally showed accums as well. We might have something here.
Post by: Clay on December 07, 2019, 10:46:49 PM
Gfs ramping up within 72 hours. 18z euro finally showed accums as well. We might have something here.Colder at the surface this run. Much improved.
Post by: AdamLewis on December 07, 2019, 11:03:06 PM
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Post by: Clint on December 08, 2019, 02:57:40 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/kkPIECR.png)
Post by: Tom26 on December 08, 2019, 04:22:53 AM
Post by: Charles L. on December 08, 2019, 04:23:52 AM
Quote
Rain will likely
increase in coverage and intensity Tuesday morning and afternoon,
as the 500mb trough axis crosses into the Ohio Valley. In
addition, cold air will be moving in, dropping temperatures
steadily through the day. With ongoing precip and falling
temperatures, a low chance for a light rain/snow mix exists late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to look like a non-event
for most locations in terms of wintry accumulation. At first
glance, the ECMWF/GFS 850mb 0C isotherm does not reach Middle
Tennessee until 00z or later on Wednesday. Thus, the approach to
this forecast package is to keep most everything liquid through
early evening on Tuesday. There may be a few flakes that mix in
late afternoon along the TN/KY border, though this remains to be
seen. As colder air and darkness sets in Tuesday night, any
remaining precipitation will start to mix with light snow. This is
especially true for locations along and east of the I-65
corridor. Higher resolution and medium range guidance both suggest
wet weather moves east of the area between 03z-06z Wednesday.
Since the cold air/precip overlap may only last a couple hours at
any given location, little to no snow accumulation is expected.
Better luck next time, snow enthusiasts
Post by: Tom26 on December 08, 2019, 04:27:13 AM
OHX isn’t biting at all.
Ahh... the great years of reading about all the downplaying that the NWS offices did down there up until the event started... blatantly ignoring all recent models and only going with what “usually” happens
Post by: Beth on December 08, 2019, 04:48:01 AM
Ahh... the great years of reading about all the downplaying that the NWS offices did down there up until the event started... blatantly ignoring all recent models and only going with what “usually” happensThey are “snow shy” now days! Just like us, they can’t get their hopes up yet. They will wait till Monday to sound the alarm and Krogers and Wallys get slammed! 😂😂😂
Post by: Tom26 on December 08, 2019, 04:51:46 AM
They are “snow shy” now days! Just like us, they can’t get their hopes up yet. They will wait till Monday to sound the alarm and Krogers and Wallys get slammed! 😂😂😂
Ha, definitely!
Post by: Michael on December 08, 2019, 07:57:50 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191208/32c5c11e2b0c6c876d2759a1d2ad552f.jpg)
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Post by: Charles L. on December 08, 2019, 08:47:16 AM
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2019, 08:48:48 AM
Post by: Charles L. on December 08, 2019, 08:54:45 AM
Another cold chasing moisture situation... ::bangingheadintowall::
The NAM and other models are showing a low form along the front, hence why we see the enhancement of moisture (especially along and behind the front in the cooler air mass) from Tuesday midday through Wednesday morning.
Now will that low form? That is the million dollar question.
Post by: StormNine on December 08, 2019, 09:38:29 AM
To get any accumulation you have to have heavier rates of snow and at this time this is unlikely at least on a widespread basis. (This could change though with a stronger wave behind the front)
Just because models show 1-3 inches of snow doesn't mean that all of that will accumulate. That is assuming that all the snow that falls will stick and with warm ground temperatures that is not going to happen.
Post by: snowdog on December 08, 2019, 10:31:36 AM
OHX isn’t biting at all.
Well, if they don't even have a pinky toe on board, no reason to get my hopes up over clown maps.
Post by: schneitzeit on December 08, 2019, 10:38:13 AM
Post by: Curt on December 08, 2019, 10:58:55 AM
Post by: Vols1 on December 08, 2019, 11:06:53 AM
Post by: Charles L. on December 08, 2019, 11:15:23 AM
When would this event be taking place? Tuesday night and Wednesday? If that low does form would that put more precipitation for Wednesday?
Timing looks to be Tuesday afternoon-late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning
Post by: Michael on December 08, 2019, 01:06:18 PM
Clearly the NAM is not backing off, honestly this run was even higher with totals.Sleet induced accumulation.
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Post by: Charles L. on December 08, 2019, 01:29:57 PM
Sleet induced accumulation.
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Considering what we got last year, I’ll take any frozen precip
Post by: StormNine on December 08, 2019, 01:58:16 PM
Per current modeling, looks like there’s potential for a 30-40 mile wide band of heavier snow inside a larger band of lighter precip. With temps in the 32-34 range, that would be a heavy wet snow. Inside that band I think there could be slushy ground accumulation if the rates hold up. Soil temps per 3k nam will be in the 30’s during the event so rate is critical. Maybe there’s zero accumulation who knows. I will say I’ve seen some pretty decent accumulations with heavy rates even after a warm air mass was present.
Snowfall rates are how you overcome warm ground temperatures. A good but extreme example was March 19-20th 1996 when temperatures were actually a few temperatures above freezing plus you had a more unfavorable sun angle (which you don't have to worry about in December) but the snowfall rates were extremely heavy and we were able to get a very widespread swath of 6-13 inches of snowfall across a good part of KY/TN despite all of the negative factors working against it.
The Deep South event 2 years ago is another good example as well.
Post by: Beth on December 08, 2019, 02:36:33 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 08, 2019, 02:52:53 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on December 08, 2019, 03:02:06 PM
If this verifies, the trend is showing mainly an "East of 65" storm.
[attachimg=1]
Post Merge: December 08, 2019, 03:06:58 PM
The SREF plumes for BNA average at a little over an inch of snowfall. The timing is Tuesday afternoon, with temperatures dropping throughout the day.
Post by: Clay on December 08, 2019, 03:59:15 PM
Post by: Clint on December 08, 2019, 03:59:25 PM
Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
158 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
Low level southerly flow will strengthen overnight, ahead of a
northern branch upper trof approaching from the central plains.
Nighttime temps to remain on the mild side, given extensive cloud
cover and low level warm advection.
The warm advection my drive some spotty light drizzle toward
morning. However, air above 850mb will remain dry, limiting chances
for measurable rain until later in the afternoon on Monday. Other
than light measurable rain, Monday`s weather will best be described
as windy, mild and humid.
PWB
.LONG TERM...
Initial focus is on infiltration of cold airmass on Tuesday. This
anafrontal oriented system spells abundant isentopic lift over the
cold dome thanks to decent jet energy in the southern branch that
kicks east during the day.
As with any of these types of systems how fast the cold airmass
sinks in is key to precipitation type and amount. The models are
now converging to at least a mixture at the close or to a changeover
with the potential for an accumulation. Model soundings and partial
thickness prognostications have their nuances depending on which
model you choose, nevertheless there is enough confidence to begin a
messaging effort to give people a heads-up that Tuesday could
present some wintriness across the region.
The overall pattern is one that gives us below average temperatures
for much of the rest of the week. Although nothing extreme, the
coldest readings are expected Wednesday morning and much of that
will be determined if there is indeed an accumulation of snow.
Following a dry and seasonably cold mid-week the models get a bit
divergent toward the weekend. Difficult to resolve the
differences between them since they have such various resolving
the southern branch shortwave. For now we must include some risk
of rainfall with temperatures generally seasonal, but suffice it
to say our confidence is low right now in making definitive
statements concerning the influence on upcoming outdoor week`s end
activities.
Belles
RGEM totals are ramping up as well.
(https://i.imgur.com/OiVHycQ.png)
Post by: JHart on December 08, 2019, 04:04:34 PM
Area Forecast DiscussionYou know it is getting real when NWS starts making up words. :D
National Weather Service Memphis TN
158 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019
...there is enough confidence to begin a
messaging effort to give people a heads-up that Tuesday could
present some wintriness across the region.
(https://i.imgur.com/OiVHycQ.png)
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2019, 04:08:43 PM
Post by: Charles L. on December 08, 2019, 04:08:55 PM
[attachimg=1]
Post by: Michael on December 08, 2019, 04:24:37 PM
https://www.weather.gov/mrx/snow
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Post by: Thundersnow on December 08, 2019, 04:28:08 PM
Quote
Tuesday
Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 4pm. High near 42. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Post by: Charles L. on December 08, 2019, 04:38:21 PM
Quote
Behind the cold front, things get interesting. Models are
producing quite a bit of post frontal QPF thanks to southwesterly
upper flow and a strong jet streak to the north of the area. This
will leave Middle Tennessee in the right entrance region of that
jet streak Tuesday/Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop through
the day on Tuesday and rain will transition to snow with a period
of sleet possible in between. Models, besides the Euro, seem bullish
with the snow amounts. There`s a couple of reasons for that.
Omega in the snow growth region is quite impressive for the
Tuesday time frame and frontogenesis is strong due our positioning
relative to the jet streak.
With any winter weather setup in Middle Tennessee, there are
always some potential red flags. First and the most frequent
question with post frontal snow events around here is how long
will moisture stick around. Model soundings show the low levels
beginning to dry out a couple hours after the rain to snow
transition. Seeder feeder processes may prolong the snow a couple
more hours, but it is something to take note of. Second, it will
take some time or decent snowfall rates to get snow to begin to
accumulate given warm, wet surfaces. Lastly, if there is a
prolonged transition from rain to sleet to snow, that will
obviously cut down on snow amounts. All this leads to a low
confidence forecast at this time, but we trended toward a slightly
snowier forecast. For most of the area, the current forecast is
for less than an inch. The northern Plateau and along the Kentucky
border could see a little more than an inch. There is plenty that
could change over the next 24-48 hours so stay tuned.
Post by: EastTNWX on December 08, 2019, 04:45:08 PM
Post by: Mr. Golf on December 08, 2019, 04:47:29 PM
I’m surprised there’s no thread yet, this looks like it’s turning into a legit winter event.I would personally wait until the 0z products tonight, but thats just me. Get a little more clarity imo.
Post by: Charles L. on December 08, 2019, 04:52:49 PM
I’m surprised there’s no thread yet, this looks like it’s turning into a legit winter event.
If one isn’t made by the time I wake up tomorrow morning I’ll start one.
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2019, 04:53:29 PM
I would personally wait until the 0z products tonight, but thats just me. Get a little more clarity imo.your within 48 hours already bro.. time ... lol
Post by: gcbama on December 08, 2019, 07:41:01 PM
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2019, 06:39:33 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191210/bdbb513367c41081075f2e7b0f6faf68.jpg)
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Post by: Thundersnow on December 10, 2019, 07:11:03 AM
Right where we want it at this time frame. At 7 days out. You never wanna be in the bullseye at 7 days out. Lol.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191210/bdbb513367c41081075f2e7b0f6faf68.jpg)
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...except, I would rather it be further southeast because of a general tendency toward a northwest trend.
Rarely have I seen snow to the north trend back in our direction. Give me more a suppressed solution and let the deep southerners get excited and then see if it “corrects” more our direction.
If the rain/snow line is already north of us at this range, then the game was already over before it started. JMO.
Maybe we’ll get more a dip in the jet stream than what we’re seeing here.
Post by: Clay on December 10, 2019, 07:43:13 AM
Post by: snowdog on December 10, 2019, 08:00:54 AM
https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1204142478632333313 (https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1204142478632333313)
Quote
Things are starting to look interesting leading up to the holidays..not only do we see a big storm brewing but we think changes await for durable cold in the central/eastern US. The idea is there & were not backing off it but we don't have a specific time frame YET. #natgas
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2019, 08:15:01 AM
Post by: snowdog on December 10, 2019, 08:43:32 AM
Eps model advertising a negative nao toward end month... we need that bad ... maybe fun times ahead if so...
Winter optimism from Bruce? It's a Christmas miracle. ::evillaugh::
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2019, 08:47:36 AM
Winter optimism from Bruce? It's a Christmas miracle. ::evillaugh::there really is a Santa Claus... lol. But that’s what it’s showing for now...
Post by: Michael on December 10, 2019, 09:32:27 AM
Eps model advertising a negative nao toward end month... we need that bad ... maybe fun times ahead if so...But what phase will MJO be in?
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Post by: Susan on December 10, 2019, 04:21:31 PM
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2019, 04:47:35 PM
http://www.frontierweather.com/WinterClimateDrivers.pdf
Post by: StormNine on December 10, 2019, 05:57:48 PM
This might be the best winter forecasting guide I've ever seen.
http://www.frontierweather.com/WinterClimateDrivers.pdf
That EPO, AO, and NAO graphic towards the end was really eye-opening. It shows that several factors are at play and that there really isn't one silver bullet for forecasting patterns.
.
Post Merge: December 10, 2019, 06:13:07 PM
[attachimg=1]
This is a classic +EPO pattern here. With the lower heights off the West Coast. It looks like someone wiped their butt with our winter pattern heading into Christmas.
This pattern and those analogs suggest that a "certain type" of weather might be more likely to occur than the typical winter weather we all know and love (most of us that is) during the hoilday season.
Post by: mamMATTus on December 10, 2019, 06:49:26 PM
Post by: Sbeagles on December 10, 2019, 06:53:49 PM
I have next to no hope for wintry weather wherever I am located within Tennessee. What I am hoping to hear is that a big snowstorm is going to hit Dallas right around NYE when I'm at the Winter Classic in the Cotton Bowl.I'll be there too! Hope its a Winter Classic winter storm for the city of Dallas! Go Preds!
Post by: mamMATTus on December 10, 2019, 06:55:49 PM
I'll be there too! Hope its a Winter Classic winter storm for the city of Dallas! Go Preds!Sweet! Go Preds!
Post by: StormNine on December 10, 2019, 07:38:20 PM
I have next to no hope for wintry weather wherever I am located within Tennessee. What I am hoping to hear is that a big snowstorm is going to hit Dallas right around NYE when I'm at the Winter Classic in the Cotton Bowl.
As craptastic as leading up to Christmas and probably Christmas itself will be there are some signs that things could switch at or just after New Years. We should time it around some more favorable MJO phases and the +EPO should at least start to work towards neutral. The NAO may go negative or neutral as well.
Post by: Mr. Golf on December 10, 2019, 08:03:40 PM
That EPO, AO, and NAO graphic towards the end was really eye-opening. It shows that several factors are at play and that there really isn't one silver bullet for forecasting patterns.Steven, i think with the ao trending more neutral or even negative in that timeframe, we should be cooler. Its still pretty far out to know anything.
.
Post Merge: December 10, 2019, 06:13:07 PM
(Attachment Link)
This is a classic +EPO pattern here. With the lower heights off the West Coast. It looks like someone wiped their butt with our winter pattern heading into Christmas.
This pattern and those analogs suggest that a "certain type" of weather might be more likely to occur than the typical winter weather we all know and love (most of us that is) during the hoilday season.
Post by: Scot on December 11, 2019, 08:44:33 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on December 11, 2019, 09:22:52 AM
I don't remember the busts as much when I was younger as they are now.
I don't know about that. I remember plenty of times when I was a kid in the 1980s when there was snow in the forecast, and expecting to be out of school the next day to only wake up and see a bare ground.
I think it happened plenty then- we are just burdened with having access to and discussing all these models in our little online weather fan community. So, we're just more aware of it.
Post by: CT_Yankee on December 11, 2019, 09:24:29 AM
So all I have heard the past two or three years is that meteorologist in Tennessee can't forecast snow and shouldn't even try anymore. Whether we like it or not, they absolutely have a right to feel the way they do because pretty much everyone that has been forecast has ended up being bust. I don't remember the busts as much when I was younger as they are now. What has changed? Wouldn't you think forecasting technology would be getting better instead of worse? How do meteorologist need to deal with this perception? It's getting to the point of the boy who cried wolf. Eventually, one won't "bust" and people aren't going to be prepared because they didn't believe it was going to happen. Typically, the call for a little bit of snow causes the bread and milk to be sold out but that doesn't even happen as much any more due to the lack of confidence in the forecast I do believe.
I disagree about this being a bust. The forecast was for 0-1". There were no winter wx advisories or warnings issued at any point. Areas to the south of Nashville did verify and even exceed the forecast. The general public and media created their own hype.
Post by: Scot on December 11, 2019, 09:26:05 AM
I think it happened plenty then- we are just burdened with having access to and discussing all these models in our little online weather fan community. So, we're just more aware of it.
I get your point, however, it isn't just us on this forum. People who don't keep up with weather at all are talking more and more about how the weather forecasters never get it right. Perhaps this is because of social media, however, everyone of the news station at least called for something and it didn't happen, and that is occurring more and more to the point that people are extremely jaded when it comes to the weather forecast and especially snow forecasts.
Post Merge: December 11, 2019, 09:27:00 AM
I disagree about this being a bust. The forecast was for 0-1". There were no winter wx advisories or warnings issued at any point. Areas to the south of Nashville did verify and even exceed the forecast. The general public and media created their own hype.Whether we on a weather forum think it was a bust or not, the regular non-weather forum person, views it as a bust. How do we get past that?
Post by: Crockett on December 11, 2019, 10:43:57 AM
So all I have heard the past two or three years is that meteorologist in Tennessee can't forecast snow and shouldn't even try anymore. Whether we like it or not, they absolutely have a right to feel the way they do because pretty much everyone that has been forecast has ended up being bust. I don't remember the busts as much when I was younger as they are now. What has changed? Wouldn't you think forecasting technology would be getting better instead of worse? How do meteorologist need to deal with this perception? It's getting to the point of the boy who cried wolf.
Thundersnow has already touched on what I was going to say. The fault is not meteorologists'. The fault is social media and our always-tuned-in, but always-short, attention spans, and public access to many of the same tools that mets use.
Back in the day, how much public chatter do you think there would've been about this system? Little to none, for sure. None of us would've been on this forum talking about it, none of us would've been on Facebook or Twitter talking about it, there would've been no nimrods posting clown maps on social media as if they're actual forecasts that should be taken literally, and the "general public" that doesn't follow the weather as closely as the rest of us would've been blissfully unaware that there was even the potential for accumulating snow.
Look at it this way: If you remove all the outside chatter and just focus on what was said by the NWS leading up to this event, would you consider this forecast a bust? No! As anticipation was building here on this forum, the NWS was only addressing the potential in AFDs (and "back in the day," we didn't even have access to those). Once it came time to make an actual forecast, the NWS was adamant that a winter weather advisory wasn't needed because the impacts would be negligible. I even saw some folks complaining because the NWS wasn't issuing a WWA -- as if the issuance of a product by the NWS actually makes meaningful snowfall more likely.
There's a reason the NWS and most broadcast meteorologists play it so conservatively. It's much easier to sound the alarm at the last minute, even after an event has begun, than to sound it too early and truly have egg on their face from an actual bust.
I don't think it busted at all. The NWS always called it what it turned out to be for most -- a nothing-burger. And I don't think the public discussion/anticipation of events like these is a bad thing at all. I just don't think the perception of a busted snow forecast is something meteorologists can fix. They did their job, and they did it well.
Post by: Scot on December 11, 2019, 10:54:21 AM
Thundersnow has already touched on what I was going to say. The fault is not meteorologists'. The fault is social media and our always-tuned-in, but always-short, attention spans, and public access to many of the same tools that mets use.
Back in the day, how much public chatter do you think there would've been about this system? Little to none, for sure. None of us would've been on this forum talking about it, none of us would've been on Facebook or Twitter talking about it, there would've been no nimrods posting clown maps on social media as if they're actual forecasts that should be taken literally, and the "general public" that doesn't follow the weather as closely as the rest of us would've been blissfully unaware that there was even the potential for accumulating snow.
Look at it this way: If you remove all the outside chatter and just focus on what was said by the NWS leading up to this event, would you consider this forecast a bust? No! As anticipation was building here on this forum, the NWS was only addressing the potential in AFDs (and "back in the day," we didn't even have access to those). Once it came time to make an actual forecast, the NWS was adamant that a winter weather advisory wasn't needed because the impacts would be negligible. I even saw some folks complaining because the NWS wasn't issuing a WWA -- as if the issuance of a product by the NWS actually makes meaningful snowfall more likely.
There's a reason the NWS and most broadcast meteorologists play it so conservatively. It's much easier to sound the alarm at the last minute, even after an event has begun, than to sound it too early and truly have egg on their face from an actual bust.
I don't think it busted at all. The NWS always called it what it turned out to be for most -- a nothing-burger. And I don't think the public discussion/anticipation of events like these is a bad thing at all. I just don't think the perception of a busted snow forecast is something meteorologists can fix. They did their job, and they did it well.
I agree with all of this but that still doesn't correct the issue. Are you all saying it isn't correctable? The people I hear talk about how meteorologists can no longer forecast are those that get their forecast from the news. They said it would snow. No, they never said it would be a lot but the fact that it did not snow at all made it a bust from a public perception. Sure you can place blame on the public all you want to for that but at some point the meteorologist have to admit that the forecast wasn't right. From the public's point of view, this was to them another case of snow being forecast and it not snowing. You're all right, I sure didn't expect much from this but I am on this forum. The average person is not and get their weather from the TV. It seems that you're saying that it's the general public's fault for listening to the meteorologist and that sure isn't good for the reputation of the profession.
Post by: Crockett on December 11, 2019, 11:54:28 AM
I agree with all of this but that still doesn't correct the issue. Are you all saying it isn't correctable? The people I hear talk about how meteorologists can no longer forecast are those that get their forecast from the news. They said it would snow. No, they never said it would be a lot but the fact that it did not snow at all made it a bust from a public perception. Sure you can place blame on the public all you want to for that but at some point the meteorologist have to admit that the forecast wasn't right. From the public's point of view, this was to them another case of snow being forecast and it not snowing. You're all right, I sure didn't expect much from this but I am on this forum. The average person is not and get their weather from the TV. It seems that you're saying that it's the general public's fault for listening to the meteorologist and that sure isn't good for the reputation of the profession.
Is it correctable? Probably not. It's a symptom of the society in which we live. People don't listen anymore, and they sure don't read. If the forecast is on the TV, they're listening with one ear and not watching at all, while they scroll through cat memes on Facebook. Then their mind latches on to one thing that stuck out to them during all of that. If you write something and it's more than a sentence, people don't read it. They glance at it, jump to something else, and their mind completely distorts the point that was being conveyed.
I can't speak for every broadcast met because there are a lot of them. Maybe there were some out there who overplayed it. All I'm saying is that of the NWS AFOs around here, they got it pretty much accurate. So, no, I'm not saying it's people's fault for listening to meteorologists. I'm saying it's their fault for only hearing what they want to hear. I see this all the time. I share weather info on Facebook. Nothing nearly as technical as what's discussed here, of course. But people are always asking me what the weather is going to do, and my job is disseminating info, so I try to keep them abreast. I try to highlight the possibilities, and if I mention model info I always include a disclaimer about how that's a single run of a single model, not a forecast, don't take it literally. And people always do. Always. That's why I would never post a clown map on FB in a million years anymore, no matter how many disclaimers it had posted with it. It never fails that when snow is in the forecast, someone will blow it out of proportion. I was at a restaurant a couple of weeks ago and some woman who didn't know me was talking about the weather and she said, "Crockett said on Facebook that we would see 4-5 inches." And I said, "Crockett sure as **** did not say that!" Lol.
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 11, 2019, 12:26:13 PM
Is it correctable? Probably not. It's a symptom of the society in which we live. People don't listen anymore, and they sure don't read. If the forecast is on the TV, they're listening with one ear and not watching at all, while they scroll through cat memes on Facebook. Then their mind latches on to one thing that stuck out to them during all of that. If you write something and it's more than a sentence, people don't read it. They glance at it, jump to something else, and their mind completely distorts the point that was being conveyed.Your right on what you say about people, but I will say as a teenager growing up in the 70's there was always plenty of speculation in the winter time especially in the good years of the mid and late 70's. Whether we were at a sporting event of the grocery store folks would be talking about possible snow next week or even the next week. I worked at a Winn-Dixie in the early 80's and can remember how crazy folks would go when the snow word came out. The one thing about then is that weather mets back then would speculate about possible upcoming events. Bill Hall and Tom Siler and even conservative Ron Kaiser would speculate. I remember forecast where one station was calling for 2-4 inches and one was calling for flurries and one calling for 1-2 inches. And sometimes their forecast were even further apart, they also used to go out on the limb a week ahead of time and adjust as they go. I know the technology wasn't as good but it was fun, and nearly always in the winter after every storm they would acknowledge hey we missed it, and sometimes even reference to their being someone on another channel that needed to be congratulated for hitting his forecast. Them were the good old days. I remember Siler hitting on 2 weeks out one time within 24 hours of what he predicted. That gave him the name the weather wizard. But Bill Hall was my favorite and I believe the most consistent, he was good at picking up the small details within 24 hours back in the day.
I can't speak for every broadcast met because there are a lot of them. Maybe there were some out there who overplayed it. All I'm saying is that of the NWS AFOs around here, they got it pretty much accurate. So, no, I'm not saying it's people's fault for listening to meteorologists. I'm saying it's their fault for only hearing what they want to hear. I see this all the time. I share weather info on Facebook. Nothing nearly as technical as what's discussed here, of course. But people are always asking me what the weather is going to do, and my job is disseminating info, so I try to keep them abreast. I try to highlight the possibilities, and if I mention model info I always include a disclaimer about how that's a single run of a single model, not a forecast, don't take it literally. And people always do. Always. That's why I would never post a clown map on FB in a million years anymore, no matter how many disclaimers it had posted with it. It never fails that when snow is in the forecast, someone will blow it out of proportion. I was at a restaurant a couple of weeks ago and some woman who didn't know me was talking about the weather and she said, "Crockett said on Facebook that we would see 4-5 inches." And I said, "Crockett sure as **** did not say that!" Lol.
Post by: Thundersnow on December 11, 2019, 02:12:24 PM
Is it correctable? Probably not. It's a symptom of the society in which we live. People don't listen anymore, and they sure don't read. If the forecast is on the TV, they're listening with one ear and not watching at all, while they scroll through cat memes on Facebook. Then their mind latches on to one thing that stuck out to them during all of that. If you write something and it's more than a sentence, people don't read it. They glance at it, jump to something else, and their mind completely distorts the point that was being conveyed.
I can't speak for every broadcast met because there are a lot of them. Maybe there were some out there who overplayed it. All I'm saying is that of the NWS AFOs around here, they got it pretty much accurate. So, no, I'm not saying it's people's fault for listening to meteorologists. I'm saying it's their fault for only hearing what they want to hear. I see this all the time. I share weather info on Facebook. Nothing nearly as technical as what's discussed here, of course. But people are always asking me what the weather is going to do, and my job is disseminating info, so I try to keep them abreast. I try to highlight the possibilities, and if I mention model info I always include a disclaimer about how that's a single run of a single model, not a forecast, don't take it literally. And people always do. Always. That's why I would never post a clown map on FB in a million years anymore, no matter how many disclaimers it had posted with it. It never fails that when snow is in the forecast, someone will blow it out of proportion. I was at a restaurant a couple of weeks ago and some woman who didn't know me was talking about the weather and she said, "Crockett said on Facebook that we would see 4-5 inches." And I said, "Crockett sure as **** did not say that!" Lol.
It's the same mentality where folks make a comment, trying to be smart or salty, when it rains.
Person: "Hey, it's raining! Was it supposed to rain today?"
Me: "Yes, there was a 30% of rain today."
Person, in response with a smirk and a snicker: "Well, I would say it's a 100% chance now, since it's raining!"
I've had that conversation a few times, and I have to roll my eyes. I try to explain that the percentage chance is really about the probability of rain in any given location and/or the percentage of the area that can expect rain. It may not be raining 5 miles down the road and may stay dry all day at that location. But, it can be like talking to a wall though, and people just don't get it.
Post by: gcbama on December 11, 2019, 02:14:00 PM
Your right on what you say about people, but I will say as a teenager growing up in the 70's there was always plenty of speculation in the winter time especially in the good years of the mid and late 70's. Whether we were at a sporting event of the grocery store folks would be talking about possible snow next week or even the next week. I worked at a Winn-Dixie in the early 80's and can remember how crazy folks would go when the snow word came out. The one thing about then is that weather mets back then would speculate about possible upcoming events. Bill Hall and Tom Siler and even conservative Ron Kaiser would speculate. I remember forecast where one station was calling for 2-4 inches and one was calling for flurries and one calling for 1-2 inches. And sometimes their forecast were even further apart, they also used to go out on the limb a week ahead of time and adjust as they go. I know the technology wasn't as good but it was fun, and nearly always in the winter after every storm they would acknowledge hey we missed it, and sometimes even reference to their being someone on another channel that needed to be congratulated for hitting his forecast. Them were the good old days. I remember Siler hitting on 2 weeks out one time within 24 hours of what he predicted. That gave him the name the weather wizard. But Bill Hall was my favorite and I believe the most consistent, he was good at picking up the small details within 24 hours back in the day.
Man, Bill Hall was great...always loved him saying we are in for valley rains and mountain snows :)
Miss him!
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 11, 2019, 05:48:40 PM
Post by: wfrogge on December 11, 2019, 08:40:01 PM
Happy hour of the GFS bringing the goods in the long range. Perfect setup statewide. What could go wrong?
GFS = what could go wrong
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on December 12, 2019, 07:06:00 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on December 12, 2019, 07:16:56 AM
Looks like the SPC gave half the state a day 5 15%
Interesting- since OHX doesn't even show thunder on Monday- showers likely with a high in the mid 50s. Their AFD said low instability on Monday. MEG just shows rain on Monday with highs in the low 50s.
SPC seems to be basing it on high shear. The individual NWS offices don't seem to impressed.
Post by: gcbama on December 12, 2019, 08:03:55 AM
Interesting- since OHX doesn't even show thunder on Monday- showers likely with a high in the mid 50s. Their AFD said low instability on Monday. MEG just shows rain on Monday with highs in the low 50s.
SPC seems to be basing it on high shear. The individual NWS offices don't seem to impressed.
I saw 500-750 cape for Monday....?
Post by: joemomma on December 12, 2019, 08:21:24 AM
Post by: BRUCE on December 12, 2019, 08:25:55 AM
Interesting- since OHX doesn't even show thunder on Monday- showers likely with a high in the mid 50s. Their AFD said low instability on Monday. MEG just shows rain on Monday with highs in the low 50s.vertical sheer looks be fairly high being modeled
SPC seems to be basing it on high shear. The individual NWS offices don't seem to impressed.
Post Merge: December 12, 2019, 08:32:47 AM
I saw 500-750 cape for Monday....?0z euro was the little more robust cape nearing 1000... those numbers r quite impressing for dead middle December ... work load got me tied down ... so I am behind on models ...
Post by: gcbama on December 12, 2019, 08:39:32 AM
vertical sheer looks be fairly high being modeled
Post Merge: December 12, 2019, 08:32:47 AM
0z euro was the little more robust cape nearing 1000... those numbers r quite impressing for dead middle December ... work load got me tied down ... so I am behind on models ...
I just do not like any severe weather in December....it's Christmastime and needs to be cold and chilly to keep me in the mood for Christmas lol. 2015 was HORRIBLE with the tornado outbreak passing right by me
Post by: TNHunter on December 12, 2019, 10:32:40 AM
I just do not like any severe weather in December....it's Christmastime and needs to be cold and chilly to keep me in the mood for Christmas lol. 2015 was HORRIBLE with the tornado outbreak passing right by me
Guess I have lived in the south to long but I don't associate Christmas with cold for some reason. Seems I have had way more warm Christmas days than cold. Think I have only seen a white Christmas once in the past 22 years I have lived here. In fact I pretty much associate December with mild temperatures now days lol. December can offer some really great warm sunny days.
Post by: BRUCE on December 12, 2019, 11:03:55 AM
Guess I have lived in the south to long but I don't associate Christmas with cold for some reason. Seems I have had way more warm Christmas days than cold. Think I have only seen a white Christmas once in the past 22 years I have lived here. In fact I pretty much associate December with mild temperatures now days lol. December can offer some really great warm sunny days.yeah. Chances are better for us getting severe weather in December than to get a winter storm these days ... sad
Post by: gcbama on December 12, 2019, 11:04:42 AM
yeah. Chances are better for us getting severe weather in December than to get a winter storm these days ... sad
I said same thing the other day lol
Post by: StormNine on December 12, 2019, 04:52:36 PM
I haven't been able to look into this as much because I have been quite busy but we are talking about a very dynamic storm if severe potential and winter storm potential are the same CWA. That isn't too uncommon west of the MS River but east of it it is pretty unique.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 12, 2019, 06:54:10 PM
There has been a bit of uncertainty as the NWS of Paducah mentions accumulating snowfall in SE MO/S IL/SW IN. That is the northern edge of the SPC outlook.The Euro did have the snow line right at the Tennessee line but now it has trended more towards the GFS with a warmer solution.
I haven't been able to look into this as much because I have been quite busy but we are talking about a very dynamic storm if severe potential and winter storm potential are the same CWA. That isn't too uncommon west of the MS River but east of it it is pretty unique.
Post by: snowdog on December 13, 2019, 08:40:12 AM
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2019, 09:41:39 AM
I might have to break out the grill for Christmas Dinner this year. ::blowtorch::I don't bother to even put it up anymore... I grill year around. 8)
Post by: Drifter49 on December 13, 2019, 09:53:51 AM
I don't bother to even put it up anymore... I grill year around. 8)Same here, I grill in most any kind of weather
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Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 13, 2019, 03:45:12 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 13, 2019, 04:57:49 PM
[attachimg=1]
Post by: schneitzeit on December 13, 2019, 04:59:57 PM
I've grilled in the snow plenty of times. ::yum::
If one has not grilled in the following conditions, then one is not a grillmaster:
- Thunderstorm
- Snowstorm
- Heavy rain
- Excessive wind (much harder to do if you have a charcoal grill instead of a gas grill)
- >100F
- <20F
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 13, 2019, 05:04:16 PM
If one has not grilled in the following conditions, then one is not a grillmaster:Yes, I agree high winds and charcoal grilling is the toughest for sure.
- Thunderstorm
- Snowstorm
- Heavy rain
- Excessive wind (much harder to do if you have a charcoal grill instead of a gas grill)
- >100F
- <20F
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2019, 05:17:05 PM
I’m sure we could find a way to screw it up but I’d sure like to see a setup like this about the first week of January.unfortunetly no matter if the slp is n a prime position for us to score ... still got get cold air source down ... or going be a cold rain in January too ☹️
(Attachment Link)
Post by: Matthew on December 13, 2019, 05:34:05 PM
unfortunetly no matter if the slp is n a prime position for us to score ... still got get cold air source down ... or going be a cold rain in January too ☹️
Bruce January prediction is out!
Cold Rains!
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 13, 2019, 06:08:36 PM
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2019, 07:28:41 AM
Post by: Scot on December 14, 2019, 07:29:44 AM
0z euro says break out the short sleeve shirts and shorts Christmas... don shoot me... im just a messenger..Ohhh we don’t blame you but you sure seem to enjoy telling us. Hmmmmmm
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Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2019, 07:32:38 AM
Ohhh we don’t blame you but you sure seem to enjoy telling us. Hmmmmmmhonestly... im ready for a good snow.... so i can enjoy it with the kids..
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Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 14, 2019, 08:44:05 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on December 14, 2019, 09:56:44 AM
Post by: Matthew on December 14, 2019, 10:48:12 AM
0z euro says break out the short sleeve shirts and shorts Christmas... don shoot me... im just a messenger..
Any severe wx in coming months? Gotta be with tornadoes right. Want to make sure I don’t lose my flip flops to go along with my short sleeves and shorts. I am glad Bruce is our seasonal wx forecaster.
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2019, 12:30:39 PM
Any severe wx in coming months? Gotta be with tornadoes right. Want to make sure I don’t lose my flip flops to go along with my short sleeves and shorts. I am glad Bruce is our seasonal wx forecaster.don't be looking for your snow shovel anytime soon im afraid. lol
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2019, 12:36:38 PM
Post by: Thundersnow on December 14, 2019, 12:47:47 PM
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2019, 12:53:14 PM
SPC pushes slight severe risk just south of the state on Monday- NWS offices showing thunderstorms on Monday afternoon in TN has we do get warm sectored with highs in the 60s.
That warm sector, too. What a contrast.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191214/ab3bee5ac9819ac0d1050abd4a03b58b.jpg)
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2019, 12:57:54 PM
SPC pushes slight severe risk just south of the state on Monday- NWS offices showing thunderstorms on Monday afternoon in TN has we do get warm sectored with highs in the 60s.yeah slp to far south
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2019, 04:48:26 PM