Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Curt on August 02, 2019, 04:37:03 PM

Title: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 02, 2019, 04:37:03 PM
Here ya go for winter months:

ENSO- on the way to neutral
PDO- positive with possible large warm pool in NE pacific
QBO- currently very positive but has peaked and should see deceasing through fall and winter
NAO- itís been negative all summer but who knows
Sun- we are nearing the solar minimum and in the quietist period nearing record books
Bruce- SER and lots of severe

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/26687211a25679b281d3a33038ccf322.jpg)
Canadian Seasonal Temps

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/52206ea700a8cd633f95bc83636a2e51.jpg)
CFS2

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/063a1ae4691dd209c7fac1ac3938b79d.jpg)
Last  yearís CFS2 at this time

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/75cb32810924484abaa10fe7a1a6413b.jpg)
Actuality. As much as it nailed it in the southeast, it sucked in the plains.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 02, 2019, 05:03:01 PM
In on the first page.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: mamMATTus on August 02, 2019, 08:19:06 PM
Here's my forecast: Another bust.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Matthew on August 02, 2019, 09:20:40 PM
I am ready for the active spring we are going to have already! 🤪
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Charles L. on August 03, 2019, 07:39:30 AM
I mean, this winter canít be any worse than last years...so that is already a positive.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 03, 2019, 07:49:32 AM
I mean, this winter canít be any worse than last years...so that is already a positive.
not quite so sure on that.... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Charles L. on August 03, 2019, 08:50:23 AM
not quite so sure on that.... lol

I didnít even see an inch of snow total. Only noticeable event was the 1/4Ē ice accretion we received on Dec 9th
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on August 03, 2019, 09:00:25 AM
2018-19 was only better than 2011-12 because at least it wasn't 76F in Rapid City, SD in 2018-19.  Even here in Western KY it was kinda blah last winter until you got closer to the Ohio River where snowfall was closer to average.

Other than that with a likely Neutral ENSO for 2019-20 the possibilities are pretty endless.  A Neutral ENSO only means that the ENSO will not play a role in the winter. Which means that other factors like PNA, MJO, etc. will be an even greater role than normal.   

I think the QBO may be the index to really watch this winter.  If it still is raging positive then you have to contend with another fast-moving/active jet stream that will make it harder for cold air to settle in place and also produce a setup that can feature even more flooding as storms attack nearly relentlessly. 

After the QBO it is all about either MJO (which I found out last winter sometimes is connected to our pattern and sometimes is not).  Last year when the MJO was favorable (Phase 8) it wasn't connected to our pattern but it certainly was connected when it was in crappy Phase 5 and 6 (funny how that works).  Then it is the PNA which went hard negative in February and caused Montana to have a Fab Feb instead of us.   



Post Merge: August 03, 2019, 09:09:37 AM
I would actually lean towards a pretty warm Canada/USA as a whole this upcoming winter.  El Nino's tend to scour out the cold air and the Northern Plains has had 3 straight winters of below-average which in a warming world is kinda odd. 

I think this is the winter where North Dakota and Montana get quite warm.  That means that our area unless we have a solid -NAO will probably be mild as well but if the core of the riding is to our northwest then we could sneak in some ULL's or even a Miller A bomb.  I would like to see the Atlantic Ocean cool a bit so that we can temper the SE Ridge at times.   

My gut at this time is like +1 to +3 winter for us but a +5 for North Dakota with no significant below average regions in much of the US or Canada.  With below average to average snowfall for our region.  A lot of the areas that did well last winter I think will take a big step back this winter in snowfall.     
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Matthew on August 03, 2019, 09:54:31 AM
 Well I am getting where I donít like cold anymore.  I love snow but seems all we get here is cold and dry or cold rain.  So a mild in the 50ís winter let it be or letís just keep fall like wx thru winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on August 03, 2019, 10:43:34 AM
Here's my forecast: Another bust.

Really going out on a limb with that forecast.  ;)

But for real, the past few winters have been so demoralizing. Bust after bust after bust.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2019, 10:48:17 AM
come christmas time... see se ridge develop... look for big svr. Outbreak.... word on street. Is that... jan feb more tornados plus svr potential... see big trough & se ridge develop... on feb 8 2020...
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 03, 2019, 10:52:39 AM
The anomalous warm pool - if it stays- in the NE PAC has huge implications for the short term indices  that drive cold air south like EPO and PNA.  Those wonít be evident until we get there. Itís definitely something to keep an eye on. Right now all we have a the big players and itís early. Looking at those I donít see any reason to proclaim warmth for all. In fact, the scales might be tipped in the other direction. As always, thereís a caveat like last winter- which behaved exactly like the winter of 52-53 where it should have been cold. But until we get closer to fall, let doom and gloom and bitterness from winterís past prevail.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Matthew on August 03, 2019, 01:32:40 PM
come christmas time... see se ridge develop... look for big svr. Outbreak.... word on street. Is that... jan feb more tornados plus svr potential... see big trough & se ridge develop... on feb 8 2020...


I predict another bust! 

Just messing with you Bruce!

One thing I predict will happen more than once is I44 Will get its big snows and we will get cold rain!!  Bet on it!
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2019, 03:55:06 PM

I predict another bust! 

Just messing with you Bruce!

One thing I predict will happen more than once is I44 Will get its big snows and we will get cold rain!!  Bet on it!

seen that happen... already we can see se ridge setup.... i44 get the winter wx. While se torches... expect lots of severe wx... in our area
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Matthew on August 03, 2019, 06:30:52 PM
In all  honesty I believe we have really no indication what this winter will be.  Snowy, cold or stormy, warm.  Wx is not predictable.  Every year we think we have it figured out then some other teleconnections will appear.  Last year it was the MJO.  Year before EPO.  Year before that PNA.  Nature and environment are a puzzle that will not be solved.  I wake up and what happens is going to happen. 
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 04, 2019, 07:04:07 AM
Last winter wasn't a total bust for the entire U.S.  The Northwest, northern Plains, and upper Midwest had one truly epic winter.  But the trough never made any progress eastward, despite models continually showing it week after week.  However, what really made last winter bite was our epic state-wide snowstorm that models showed for days slowly, painfully, and nearly completely evaporating over the course of a few day's worth of model runs.  It was like having the rug pulled out from under us in super slow motion.   Far worse and more painful than have it disappear in one day.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on August 05, 2019, 09:35:51 AM
Other than that with a likely Neutral ENSO for 2019-20 the possibilities are pretty endless.  A Neutral ENSO only means that the ENSO will not play a role in the winter. Which means that other factors like PNA, MJO, etc. will be an even greater role than normal.

Due to the low solar activity (we are between cycles from 24 to 25), we should see an active polar jet. The last winter that was between cycles was 2009/2010, and it was an unusually cold/stormy winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: bugalou on August 08, 2019, 05:09:55 PM
After the last two winters, its going to be hard to be worse so I can't help but feel positive about this winter.  Good analysis Curt, I am not so good at longer range stuff like this so I appreciate your effort.

Post Merge: August 08, 2019, 05:13:30 PM
Well I am getting where I donít like cold anymore.  I love snow but seems all we get here is cold and dry or cold rain.  So a mild in the 50ís winter let it be or letís just keep fall like wx thru winter.

I will permaban you for this type of crazy talk.  Watch your mouth.  ::shaking_finger::  ::rofl::
(I am kidding for those of you sarcasm deficient)
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 09, 2019, 07:41:30 AM
Let me flip a coin, then another and another. We have been talking about this for 10 years. When it comes down to it, Winter Wx is very local and is usually not widespread when it comes to moderate accumulations. My point being? We can have all the signs for a good Winter then have a good winter but for who? One in Nashville may say it was horrible while everyone around us had a epic winter.... Its fun to talk about, but events are too localized to make any assumptions any year.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: mamMATTus on August 09, 2019, 12:37:51 PM
Let me flip a coin, then another and another. We have been talking about this for 10 years. When it comes down to it, Winter Wx is very local and is usually not widespread when it comes to moderate accumulations. My point being? We can have all the signs for a good Winter then have a good winter but for who? One in Nashville may say it was horrible while everyone around us had a epic winter.... Its fun to talk about, but events are too localized to make any assumptions any year.

You nailed it. Last year was the last for getting my hopes up about any winter weather in TN. Itís a complete luck of the draw. When itís physically falling through the atmosphere, Iíll believe it. Not buying into anymore more models or winterwx forecasts.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on August 09, 2019, 05:19:49 PM
I'm a Vol fan, it's in my nature to get overly optimistic and then be let down...over and over and over and over.

So, with that said, this is our year. 14+" of pure white powdery crystalized goodness.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2019, 07:26:21 PM
Indifferent best describes my emotional state for this winter. 

After '09-10, I thought we might be turning a corner.  And, indeed, we had many "better" winters from 2009 until 2015, with a few duds in the mix.  But, overall, we definitely had some colder weather, and experienced our first sub-zero temperatures since 1994 for many of us.  But then our Super-Nino developed in late 2015, and it caused our winters to revert to pre-2009 style with few Arctic intrusions this far south.

So, after the last 3 winters that produced little, and especially after the last one--the winter with so much promise that gave us nothing, I'm indifferent.  Numb.  I don't feel anything except the dread of losing hours of daylight, and enduring multiple 35 degree rainy days. 
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 09, 2019, 08:04:44 PM
It's August and we're already complaining  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Drifter49 on August 09, 2019, 08:33:43 PM
It's August and we're already complaining  ::rofl::

Thatís how we roll


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 10, 2019, 07:05:13 AM
It's called 'venting.'  It's a very healthy exercise.  I feel better already.   8)
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2019, 09:49:50 AM
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0

Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February. 

It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW.  That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it. 

Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter.  A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.         
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 11, 2019, 12:41:25 PM
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0

Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February. 

It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW.  That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it. 

Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter.  A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.       
:D 8)....keep on preaching brother... ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: bugalou on August 11, 2019, 02:03:33 PM
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0

Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February. 

It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW.  That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it. 

Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter.  A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.       


Honestly doesn't sound half bad for those of us in the west of the state.  Memphis has picked up some pretty great winter events from bowling ball lows cutting off around the 4 corners and drifting east eventually.  Who needs a cold air source when you can just produce your own dynamically via a combination of low sun angle, short daylight, and adiabatic processes.  I honestly can't even remember a 5+ inch snow event here in the past 20 years that didn't happen with temps at 31/32 degrees during the duration of the event.

This doesn't really bode well for though of you east of Jackson though.  ::doh::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2019, 03:25:57 PM

Honestly doesn't sound half bad for those of us in the west of the state.  Memphis has picked up some pretty great winter events from bowling ball lows cutting off around the 4 corners and drifting east eventually.  Who needs a cold air source when you can just produce your own dynamically via a combination of low sun angle, short daylight, and adiabatic processes.  I honestly can't even remember a 5+ inch snow event here in the past 20 years that didn't happen with temps at 31/32 degrees during the duration of the event.

This doesn't really bode well for though of you east of Jackson though.  ::doh::

2005-06 is what came to mind looking at the monthlies.  It had that similar look and that winter allowed for Memphis to score a moderate snow event while Middle TN into Central KY got the I-65 warm nose.   

Take the monthlies with a grain of the world's finest salt. I reminder this time last year we were salivating over them because they showed the goods while torching the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 11, 2019, 06:42:28 PM
After last year, I have little faith in any long range forecasts--even Euro's.  It showed so much good stuff last winter that never materialized--and that was just 2-3 weeks out.  So how can I believe it 2-3 months (or more) out? 

In my youth, I remember August was the month I would get "pumped" about the coming winter.  I would re-read my NWS pamphlets and flyers about winter storms that I had collected over the years.  I would gaze at the U.S. map hanging on my bedroom wall behind it's plexiglass protection, and draw hypothetical winter storms while fantasizing about the "big one" hitting in the coming months.   

Oh, to be young again, and not living in a greenhouse world.  It's just hard to get excited about winter anymore.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 11, 2019, 08:35:41 PM
If the foggy days in August thing pans out , we are in the money.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on August 12, 2019, 07:35:37 AM
People bemoaning a warming planet forget that places around of us have seen record or close to record cold and snow. Last year it was the upper Midwest. A few years ago it was the upper Ohio Valley.

Just have to wait our turn.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 12, 2019, 07:46:25 AM
People bemoaning a warming planet forget that places around of us have seen record or close to record cold and snow. Last year it was the upper Midwest. A few years ago it was the upper Ohio Valley.

Just have to wait our turn.

Better hurry. I'm not gettin' any younger here.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Drifter49 on August 12, 2019, 07:47:20 AM
Better hurry. I'm not gettin' any younger here.   :laugh:

Iím right there with ya!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 12, 2019, 09:11:14 AM
People bemoaning a warming planet forget that places around of us have seen record or close to record cold and snow. Last year it was the upper Midwest. A few years ago it was the upper Ohio Valley.

Just have to wait our turn.
yeah... big ice glaciers melting at record pace up in anartic  regions... think  our turn done passed us by ... the 70s and early mid 80s was our turn...
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Crockett on August 12, 2019, 09:52:57 AM
yeah... big ice glaciers melting at record pace up in anartic  regions... think  our turn done passed us by ... the 70s and early mid 80s was our turn...

 ::shrug::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 12, 2019, 06:23:52 PM
::shrug::

Truth over facts.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 12, 2019, 07:57:39 PM
Truth over facts.
that is the truth... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 12, 2019, 08:15:06 PM
that is the truth... lol

Touchť.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on August 13, 2019, 07:12:22 AM
yeah... big ice glaciers melting at record pace up in anartic  regions... think  our turn done passed us by ... the 70s and early mid 80s was our turn...

Glaciers are melting in "Anartic"?
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 13, 2019, 11:20:47 AM
Just looked at the latest Euro Seasonal- itís definitely favoring a central trough with normal temps for now for the traditional 3 month winter periods. As mentioned- take em with a grain this far out. In other news, the raging QBO took a huge plunge downward in July. Most of the time, the QBO continues to drop and goes negative although 2016-2017 was an exception where it dropped to neutral and went positive again- which is rare. Itís just one piece of the puzzle to watch as we go through the fall. A neutral to negative QBO favors more arctic outbreaks and may be more prevalent since ENSO will be neutral for winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 18, 2019, 07:09:52 AM
If one is to believe most of the winter outlooks now appearing on YouTube, then a truly epic winter it will be.   ::)

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020 (https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020)

Of course, earlier in this decade, the eastern U.S. was the one cold anomaly during multiple mostly warm winters globally.  So, anything is possible. 

More noteworthy to me is that we're already upon 2020.  Wow, where did this decade go??
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 18, 2019, 07:20:51 AM
 ::sleeping:: ::sleeping::
If one is to believe most of the winter outlooks now appearing on YouTube, then a truly epic winter it will be.   ::)

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020 (https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020)

Of course, earlier in this decade, the eastern U.S. was the one cold anomaly during multiple mostly warm winters globally.  So, anything is possible. 

More noteworthy to me is that we're already upon 2020.  Wow, where did this decade go??
::sleeping::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 18, 2019, 07:49:57 AM
::sleeping:: ::sleeping:: ::sleeping::

Yeah, I think the bears have the right idea.  They sleep through it, too.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on August 18, 2019, 08:45:06 AM
The ENSO if I had to make a guess will be Cool Neutral that falls just short of La-Nina (think 2016-17 as far as ENSO strength is to be considered). 

As we saw last winter ENSO (especially weaker events) plays a pretty small role.  The subtropical jet was the only El-Nino thing that happened last winter.   
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Flash on August 22, 2019, 07:47:15 AM
This is likely a function of flawed memory, but outside of 2015-16, it does seem ENSO played a bigger role in last decade's winters than this decade. Seems the last three, in particular, have been a tutorial on what derails ENSO on being a driving factor. If you matrix out the teleconnections since 2000, my guess would be you'd have more agreeing patterns (lining up one way or another to good winter/bad winter) early on...and more conflicting patterns (higher bustable winter forecast %) the closer you get to present.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Thundersnow on August 22, 2019, 08:24:34 AM
The winter thread is to the fourth page, and it's still August? It's a blockbuster already.  ::cold:: ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on August 22, 2019, 05:23:12 PM
This is likely a function of flawed memory, but outside of 2015-16, it does seem ENSO played a bigger role in the last decade's winters than this decade. Seems the last three, in particular, have been a tutorial on what derails ENSO on being a driving factor. If you matrix out the teleconnections since 2000, my guess would be you'd have more agreeing patterns (lining up one way or another to good winter/bad winter) early on...and more conflicting patterns (higher bustable winter forecast %) the closer you get to present.

I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.

Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.   
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 23, 2019, 07:16:23 AM
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.

Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.   

With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.
Title: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 23, 2019, 07:51:46 AM
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.

Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.   

With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190823/ad269462af12078d1177d132095b78c9.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on August 23, 2019, 10:44:06 AM
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190823/ad269462af12078d1177d132095b78c9.jpg)

Interesting to compare Northern and Southern Hemisphere SSTs.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 24, 2019, 09:06:32 PM
Its almost time for the snow to start falling. Already signs above 10k feet that fall is coming.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Charles L. on August 25, 2019, 07:52:58 AM
Its almost time for the snow to start falling. Already signs above 10k feet that fall is coming.

I. Am. Ready.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on August 25, 2019, 10:34:17 AM
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190823/ad269462af12078d1177d132095b78c9.jpg)

If that stays I would look for a -EPO, +PNA, +PDO, +NAO, and +AO pattern.
The CFS2 now is on board that we will cool enough for a Weak La Nina episode or at least a Cool Neutral that is borderline.  That could create a variety of conditions that range from jet stream rising into Canada and causing winter death in Southern Canada and the USA with the murder weapon being zonal flow or if the EPO and PNA are strong enough it can be enough to send occasional troughs into the Central and perhaps Eastern USA (think our current pattern this summer).

Current Analogs (which bombed and went fail mode last year):
1952-53
1983-84
1995-96
2005-06
2017-18

If things go right in a +PNA/-EPO mixed with +NAO then 2013-14 would be a decent secondary analog just based on that. 

With this pattern, we may be looking at least a decent severe weather/tornado threat or two during the November-Early March timeframe.     

Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: mamMATTus on August 27, 2019, 01:00:39 PM
Hereís this yearís nickname for Winter 2019-2020: Polar Coaster.

Can you feel the hype and disappointment already?
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: cgauxknox on August 27, 2019, 02:36:18 PM
Hereís this yearís nickname for Winter 2019-2020: Polar Coaster.

Can you feel the hype and disappointment already?
::snowman:: ::cold:: ::drowning:: ::blowup:: ::panic:: ::twister:: ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on August 27, 2019, 04:23:23 PM
Hereís this yearís nickname for Winter 2019-2020: Polar Coaster.

Can you feel the hype and disappointment already?

Some of our posters need to stock up on Dramamine.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 27, 2019, 05:46:56 PM
Some of our posters need to stock up on Dramamine.
they may need something stronger than that... ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Greyhound on August 28, 2019, 10:23:27 AM
Some of our posters need to stock up on Dramamine.

More like Prozac, Xanax and Jack Daniels
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 28, 2019, 01:17:29 PM
Or you could pop some psychedelics and just pretend that the 35 degree rain is actually snow
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: joemomma on August 28, 2019, 03:44:22 PM
My outloook:

Might snow, might not.
Might be cold, might not.

Honestly, we don't know what it's going to be doing much more than 3 days from now, let alone 3 months.  Sure, we can look at trends and connections, but even those have failed us over the past couple of years.  Last year had all the players on the field (that we know of), but they didn't show up to the same game at the same time for most of us.  Sure, there were some that cashed in, but most of us didn't get to see much.

In the meantime, it's fun to track and *hopefully* get to cash in at some point.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on September 02, 2019, 09:25:05 AM
Since it is Labor Day and I won't have much time till October to post I decided to realize my pre thoughts for this winter.

After that sour taste that last winter left in my mouth where the exact opposite and I mean exact occurred than what is expected I have decided to stick my neck out again this winter.   

This winter is a bit fun because you have a variety of outlooks that range from Winter Cancel to Polar Coaster, mostly because there really isn't a strong ENSO signal or even a strong like I think the PNA will absolutely be + like you see in some winters.

This outlook assumes the following:  A very weak -ENSO (around -0.5 to -0.7C), + NAO (but not as a much as previous winters because the Atlantic isn't quite as warm as last year),  + AO, +PDO, +PNA, and solidly +QBO with a semi active Northern Stream.  There will also be times where zonal or semizonal flow will keep much of the colder air locked in the poles. 

Analogs used were a mix of 1952-53, 2005-06, and 2017-18, but also the overall pattern of this summer so far was taken into consideration.

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Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on September 02, 2019, 11:20:01 AM
I've started to look more into solar forcings. I find it interesting. As I stated earlier, we are in between solar cycles which leads to a Polar Coaster type setup (active polar jet).

However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.

Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on September 04, 2019, 02:58:24 PM
Weather Bell Prelim Outlook
-Plenty of potential for a severe winter.
-East will have to overcome early warmth.
-SST analogs are amazingly close to a blend of 2013-14 and 2014-15.
-Warm northeastern Pacific and cooler Nino1+2 usually a great cold signal.
-Snowfall should be generous.



Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on September 04, 2019, 08:33:59 PM
CSFV2 model ... ::blowtorch:: this December January February thus far...
Title: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on September 04, 2019, 08:34:54 PM
CSFV2 model ... ::blowtorch:: this December January February thus far...

Yep. And it was in 2013-14 and 2014-15 both of which had a warm northeast pacific. If the CFS2 is your argument on Sept 1 for warm or cold...you better try again.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/643a7af5bfb9b01933789dd68b86da88.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/40a7409616136da7bf8e2e7ef7a9ae07.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on September 04, 2019, 10:27:41 PM
Yep. And it was in 2013-14 and 2014-15 both of which had a warm northeast pacific. If the CFS2 is your argument on Sept 1 for warm or cold...you better try again.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/643a7af5bfb9b01933789dd68b86da88.jpg)[img width=600 height=452]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/40a7409616136da7bf8e2e7ef7a9ae07.jpg]
dont shoot the messenger ... wo... lighten up there Francis ... just stating what model shows...
Title: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on September 05, 2019, 07:16:12 AM
dont shoot the messenger ... wo... lighten up there Francis ... just stating what model shows...

Iím just having fun poking holes which let face it-  isnít that hard.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on September 24, 2019, 07:05:28 AM
After our ridgefest 2019 fall, I hope the Arctic unloads on the Southeast multiple times. We deserve it.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: mempho on October 06, 2019, 06:04:21 AM
I've started to look more into solar forcings. I find it interesting. As I stated earlier, we are in between solar cycles which leads to a Polar Coaster type setup (active polar jet).

However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.

Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.
We also had very low solar activity throughout the cycle, so this is the first time we've observed a minimum after a low max cycle. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on October 06, 2019, 08:45:44 PM
My analog set for this winter is

1952-53
2005-06
2013-14
2014-15
2017-18 

I would consider a mix of 2005-06 and 2013-14 to be the primary.  Not as warm as 2005-06 but not as cold as 2013-14 somewhere in the middle. 

Other factors I am looking at are
- Sea Level Temps and a possible +PNA/+NAO combo
- The Neutral ENSO that may act both like a Nina and a Nino at times
- Very active Northern Stream that we already saw with the Montana Blizzard and the flooding in the Upper Midwest. 
- Climate Change/Global Warming and Low Sunspot Activity also play a role.  They kinda counteract a bit in my outlook with a slight lean towards Climate Change. 

Summary:

- Expect what I think will be a very changeable winter with the potential for our area to be near or on a battleground zone between ridging and a northern stream system.  Meaning that I would probably expect at least 2 overrunning events that could be wintry or could be flooding and at least 1 severe weather threat for KY and TN.     

- I believe the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will probably have their 3rd below normal winter in the role due to the northern stream

- Warmer ocean water means that ridging will be factors on both the Pacific and Atlantic side.  At one point in the winter I would expect to see a very warm period all across the USA and Canada as these features will occasionally merge, especially if we linger around MJO phases 5 and 6. 

- Having a stronger northern stream means more energy to beat the ridge.  I would expect even SE TN and parts of the Deep South to have at least 1 legit threat even if they end up finishing the winter above average.   

- Here is something really interesting.  The SOI is leaning in more of a El-Nino direction but we have a Neutral to border Nina ENSO.  Meaning that we could see the Subtropical Jet come to life with the active Northern Stream.  I think we would have the chance to at one point to have a rare Triple Phase system, meaning a very strong system.   

Overall temperature wise I am not expecting a dud winter, but I am not also expecting a solid cold winter.  Something like a slightly more action-packed and slightly colder 2017-18 would probably be what I would forecast.  With everyone seeing at least 1 threat and potentially a solid winter for NW TN.   

Post Merge: October 06, 2019, 09:10:49 PM
[attachimg=1]

Outside of the coasts and the Desert SW/parts of the SE it might just be a Polar Coaster after all.   
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Flash on October 07, 2019, 07:25:36 AM
My analog set for this winter is

1952-53
2005-06
2013-14
2014-15
2017-18 

I would consider a mix of 2005-06 and 2013-14 to be the primary.  Not as warm as 2005-06 but not as cold as 2013-14 somewhere in the middle. 

Other factors I am looking at are
- Sea Level Temps and a possible +PNA/+NAO combo
- The Neutral ENSO that may act both like a Nina and a Nino at times
- Very active Northern Stream that we already saw with the Montana Blizzard and the flooding in the Upper Midwest. 
- Climate Change/Global Warming and Low Sunspot Activity also play a role.  They kinda counteract a bit in my outlook with a slight lean towards Climate Change. 

Summary:

- Expect what I think will be a very changeable winter with the potential for our area to be near or on a battleground zone between ridging and a northern stream system.  Meaning that I would probably expect at least 2 overrunning events that could be wintry or could be flooding and at least 1 severe weather threat for KY and TN.     

- I believe the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will probably have their 3rd below normal winter in the role due to the northern stream

- Warmer ocean water means that ridging will be factors on both the Pacific and Atlantic side.  At one point in the winter I would expect to see a very warm period all across the USA and Canada as these features will occasionally merge, especially if we linger around MJO phases 5 and 6. 

- Having a stronger northern stream means more energy to beat the ridge.  I would expect even SE TN and parts of the Deep South to have at least 1 legit threat even if they end up finishing the winter above average.   

- Here is something really interesting.  The SOI is leaning in more of a El-Nino direction but we have a Neutral to border Nina ENSO.  Meaning that we could see the Subtropical Jet come to life with the active Northern Stream.  I think we would have the chance to at one point to have a rare Triple Phase system, meaning a very strong system.   

Overall temperature wise I am not expecting a dud winter, but I am not also expecting a solid cold winter.  Something like a slightly more action-packed and slightly colder 2017-18 would probably be what I would forecast.  With everyone seeing at least 1 threat and potentially a solid winter for NW TN.   

Post Merge: October 06, 2019, 09:10:49 PM
(Attachment Link)

Outside of the coasts and the Desert SW/parts of the SE it might just be a Polar Coaster after all.

Great work! After last winter, I'll take this look. Snowchased to Mount Vernon last year and may do it again if this verifies. Also, I know many look down on '05-06 due to the January +10 temp anomalies and the busted snowcast of 2/10/06, but December/February was primed for decent action for most of our viewing areas. Seems the decadal trend has been 'one month on, two months off' for winter showing up in the DJF time frame so anytime you get 'two months on, one month off', take it and run.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2019, 03:39:42 PM
I would say if you want to look at it through the eyes of a winter weenie.  This outlook does assume a -EPO, +PNA, +AO, and +NAO.  If the latter two were to go negative or either neutral OR the EPO was strongly negative and the PNA or PDO strongly positive that it would overwhelm the +NAO/AO then that cold would shift over towards our area. 

The other not so good solution is the EPO doesn't cooperate then you may have a January 2006 repeat or even worse 2001-02 depending on how long that lasts.   

Those are my thoughts based on all of that, but there are so many pieces and scernaros that really anything from 2013-14 to 2005-06 to 2001-02 is possible.   
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: bugalou on October 10, 2019, 11:17:12 AM
I've started to look more into solar forcings. I find it interesting. As I stated earlier, we are in between solar cycles which leads to a Polar Coaster type setup (active polar jet).

However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.

Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.

I find this interesting.  So little is understood about how sun spot activity combined with Earth's orbit perturbations and its effects on the weather.  I can see how ocean current activity, sea temps, and this solar variables could combine in ways to really drive the weather.  While we have a decent understanding on the first two, data on the solar related variables is far less understood.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on October 10, 2019, 11:27:19 AM
I find this interesting.  So little is understood about how sun spot activity combined with Earth's orbit perturbations and its effects on the weather.  I can see how ocean current activity, sea temps, and this solar variables could combine in ways to really drive the weather.  While we have a decent understanding on the first two, data on the solar related variables is far less understood.
sun spot n solar r way over rated ... doubt it has much effect to be honest ... imo..
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: bugalou on October 10, 2019, 11:45:32 AM
sun spot n solar r way over rated ... doubt it has much effect to be honest ... imo..

The data out there shows its minor, but everything I have seen does not combine other factors.  There is not a lot of data here and I think calling it over rated is premature.
More over this does not factor minor changes in Earth's orbit from year to year.  Considering the the ice ages are thought to be caused by earth's orbit extending further out from the sun, and the fact that they are regular occurrences it would back some sort of long term oscillation in earth's mean distance from the sun. 
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2019, 03:11:57 PM
The space features are important like sunspot data.  The question becomes how much does the cooling influence of the sunspots compare to the warming influence of climate change/global warming.  I think the climate forcing is probably stronger than the solar, but that doesn't mean that we need to ignore the solar forcings as it may impact things like having an active northern jet stream which play a huge role in how our cool season goes down.   
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on October 11, 2019, 07:36:23 AM
The space features are important like sunspot data.  The question becomes how much does the cooling influence of the sunspots compare to the warming influence of climate change/global warming.  I think the climate forcing is probably stronger than the solar, but that doesn't mean that we need to ignore the solar forcings as it may impact things like having an active northern jet stream which play a huge role in how our cool season goes down.

I disagree. We don't even fully understand solar and it's impact. For the first time the IPCC will have solar forcings in their model output. A good video on solar forcings and climate change https://youtu.be/rEWoPzaDmOA (https://youtu.be/rEWoPzaDmOA)