Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Curt on August 02, 2019, 04:37:03 PM

Title: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 02, 2019, 04:37:03 PM
Here ya go for winter months:

ENSO- on the way to neutral
PDO- positive with possible large warm pool in NE pacific
QBO- currently very positive but has peaked and should see deceasing through fall and winter
NAO- itís been negative all summer but who knows
Sun- we are nearing the solar minimum and in the quietist period nearing record books
Bruce- SER and lots of severe

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/26687211a25679b281d3a33038ccf322.jpg)
Canadian Seasonal Temps

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/52206ea700a8cd633f95bc83636a2e51.jpg)
CFS2

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/063a1ae4691dd209c7fac1ac3938b79d.jpg)
Last  yearís CFS2 at this time

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/75cb32810924484abaa10fe7a1a6413b.jpg)
Actuality. As much as it nailed it in the southeast, it sucked in the plains.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 02, 2019, 05:03:01 PM
In on the first page.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: mamMATTus on August 02, 2019, 08:19:06 PM
Here's my forecast: Another bust.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Matthew on August 02, 2019, 09:20:40 PM
I am ready for the active spring we are going to have already! 🤪
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Charles L. on August 03, 2019, 07:39:30 AM
I mean, this winter canít be any worse than last years...so that is already a positive.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 03, 2019, 07:49:32 AM
I mean, this winter canít be any worse than last years...so that is already a positive.
not quite so sure on that.... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Charles L. on August 03, 2019, 08:50:23 AM
not quite so sure on that.... lol

I didnít even see an inch of snow total. Only noticeable event was the 1/4Ē ice accretion we received on Dec 9th
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on August 03, 2019, 09:00:25 AM
2018-19 was only better than 2011-12 because at least it wasn't 76F in Rapid City, SD in 2018-19.  Even here in Western KY it was kinda blah last winter until you got closer to the Ohio River where snowfall was closer to average.

Other than that with a likely Neutral ENSO for 2019-20 the possibilities are pretty endless.  A Neutral ENSO only means that the ENSO will not play a role in the winter. Which means that other factors like PNA, MJO, etc. will be an even greater role than normal.   

I think the QBO may be the index to really watch this winter.  If it still is raging positive then you have to contend with another fast-moving/active jet stream that will make it harder for cold air to settle in place and also produce a setup that can feature even more flooding as storms attack nearly relentlessly. 

After the QBO it is all about either MJO (which I found out last winter sometimes is connected to our pattern and sometimes is not).  Last year when the MJO was favorable (Phase 8) it wasn't connected to our pattern but it certainly was connected when it was in crappy Phase 5 and 6 (funny how that works).  Then it is the PNA which went hard negative in February and caused Montana to have a Fab Feb instead of us.   



Post Merge: August 03, 2019, 09:09:37 AM
I would actually lean towards a pretty warm Canada/USA as a whole this upcoming winter.  El Nino's tend to scour out the cold air and the Northern Plains has had 3 straight winters of below-average which in a warming world is kinda odd. 

I think this is the winter where North Dakota and Montana get quite warm.  That means that our area unless we have a solid -NAO will probably be mild as well but if the core of the riding is to our northwest then we could sneak in some ULL's or even a Miller A bomb.  I would like to see the Atlantic Ocean cool a bit so that we can temper the SE Ridge at times.   

My gut at this time is like +1 to +3 winter for us but a +5 for North Dakota with no significant below average regions in much of the US or Canada.  With below average to average snowfall for our region.  A lot of the areas that did well last winter I think will take a big step back this winter in snowfall.     
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Matthew on August 03, 2019, 09:54:31 AM
 Well I am getting where I donít like cold anymore.  I love snow but seems all we get here is cold and dry or cold rain.  So a mild in the 50ís winter let it be or letís just keep fall like wx thru winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Nash_LSU on August 03, 2019, 10:43:34 AM
Here's my forecast: Another bust.

Really going out on a limb with that forecast.  ;)

But for real, the past few winters have been so demoralizing. Bust after bust after bust.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2019, 10:48:17 AM
come christmas time... see se ridge develop... look for big svr. Outbreak.... word on street. Is that... jan feb more tornados plus svr potential... see big trough & se ridge develop... on feb 8 2020...
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 03, 2019, 10:52:39 AM
The anomalous warm pool - if it stays- in the NE PAC has huge implications for the short term indices  that drive cold air south like EPO and PNA.  Those wonít be evident until we get there. Itís definitely something to keep an eye on. Right now all we have a the big players and itís early. Looking at those I donít see any reason to proclaim warmth for all. In fact, the scales might be tipped in the other direction. As always, thereís a caveat like last winter- which behaved exactly like the winter of 52-53 where it should have been cold. But until we get closer to fall, let doom and gloom and bitterness from winterís past prevail.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Matthew on August 03, 2019, 01:32:40 PM
come christmas time... see se ridge develop... look for big svr. Outbreak.... word on street. Is that... jan feb more tornados plus svr potential... see big trough & se ridge develop... on feb 8 2020...


I predict another bust! 

Just messing with you Bruce!

One thing I predict will happen more than once is I44 Will get its big snows and we will get cold rain!!  Bet on it!
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2019, 03:55:06 PM

I predict another bust! 

Just messing with you Bruce!

One thing I predict will happen more than once is I44 Will get its big snows and we will get cold rain!!  Bet on it!

seen that happen... already we can see se ridge setup.... i44 get the winter wx. While se torches... expect lots of severe wx... in our area
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Matthew on August 03, 2019, 06:30:52 PM
In all  honesty I believe we have really no indication what this winter will be.  Snowy, cold or stormy, warm.  Wx is not predictable.  Every year we think we have it figured out then some other teleconnections will appear.  Last year it was the MJO.  Year before EPO.  Year before that PNA.  Nature and environment are a puzzle that will not be solved.  I wake up and what happens is going to happen. 
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 04, 2019, 07:04:07 AM
Last winter wasn't a total bust for the entire U.S.  The Northwest, northern Plains, and upper Midwest had one truly epic winter.  But the trough never made any progress eastward, despite models continually showing it week after week.  However, what really made last winter bite was our epic state-wide snowstorm that models showed for days slowly, painfully, and nearly completely evaporating over the course of a few day's worth of model runs.  It was like having the rug pulled out from under us in super slow motion.   Far worse and more painful than have it disappear in one day.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on August 05, 2019, 09:35:51 AM
Other than that with a likely Neutral ENSO for 2019-20 the possibilities are pretty endless.  A Neutral ENSO only means that the ENSO will not play a role in the winter. Which means that other factors like PNA, MJO, etc. will be an even greater role than normal.

Due to the low solar activity (we are between cycles from 24 to 25), we should see an active polar jet. The last winter that was between cycles was 2009/2010, and it was an unusually cold/stormy winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: bugalou on August 08, 2019, 05:09:55 PM
After the last two winters, its going to be hard to be worse so I can't help but feel positive about this winter.  Good analysis Curt, I am not so good at longer range stuff like this so I appreciate your effort.

Post Merge: August 08, 2019, 05:13:30 PM
Well I am getting where I donít like cold anymore.  I love snow but seems all we get here is cold and dry or cold rain.  So a mild in the 50ís winter let it be or letís just keep fall like wx thru winter.

I will permaban you for this type of crazy talk.  Watch your mouth.  ::shaking_finger::  ::rofl::
(I am kidding for those of you sarcasm deficient)
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 09, 2019, 07:41:30 AM
Let me flip a coin, then another and another. We have been talking about this for 10 years. When it comes down to it, Winter Wx is very local and is usually not widespread when it comes to moderate accumulations. My point being? We can have all the signs for a good Winter then have a good winter but for who? One in Nashville may say it was horrible while everyone around us had a epic winter.... Its fun to talk about, but events are too localized to make any assumptions any year.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: mamMATTus on August 09, 2019, 12:37:51 PM
Let me flip a coin, then another and another. We have been talking about this for 10 years. When it comes down to it, Winter Wx is very local and is usually not widespread when it comes to moderate accumulations. My point being? We can have all the signs for a good Winter then have a good winter but for who? One in Nashville may say it was horrible while everyone around us had a epic winter.... Its fun to talk about, but events are too localized to make any assumptions any year.

You nailed it. Last year was the last for getting my hopes up about any winter weather in TN. Itís a complete luck of the draw. When itís physically falling through the atmosphere, Iíll believe it. Not buying into anymore more models or winterwx forecasts.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on August 09, 2019, 05:19:49 PM
I'm a Vol fan, it's in my nature to get overly optimistic and then be let down...over and over and over and over.

So, with that said, this is our year. 14+" of pure white powdery crystalized goodness.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2019, 07:26:21 PM
Indifferent best describes my emotional state for this winter. 

After '09-10, I thought we might be turning a corner.  And, indeed, we had many "better" winters from 2009 until 2015, with a few duds in the mix.  But, overall, we definitely had some colder weather, and experienced our first sub-zero temperatures since 1994 for many of us.  But then our Super-Nino developed in late 2015, and it caused our winters to revert to pre-2009 style with few Arctic intrusions this far south.

So, after the last 3 winters that produced little, and especially after the last one--the winter with so much promise that gave us nothing, I'm indifferent.  Numb.  I don't feel anything except the dread of losing hours of daylight, and enduring multiple 35 degree rainy days. 
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: schneitzeit on August 09, 2019, 08:04:44 PM
It's August and we're already complaining  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Drifter49 on August 09, 2019, 08:33:43 PM
It's August and we're already complaining  ::rofl::

Thatís how we roll


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 10, 2019, 07:05:13 AM
It's called 'venting.'  It's a very healthy exercise.  I feel better already.   8)
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2019, 09:49:50 AM
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0

Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February. 

It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW.  That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it. 

Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter.  A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.         
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 11, 2019, 12:41:25 PM
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0

Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February. 

It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW.  That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it. 

Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter.  A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.       
:D 8)....keep on preaching brother... ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: bugalou on August 11, 2019, 02:03:33 PM
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0

Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February. 

It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW.  That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it. 

Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter.  A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.       


Honestly doesn't sound half bad for those of us in the west of the state.  Memphis has picked up some pretty great winter events from bowling ball lows cutting off around the 4 corners and drifting east eventually.  Who needs a cold air source when you can just produce your own dynamically via a combination of low sun angle, short daylight, and adiabatic processes.  I honestly can't even remember a 5+ inch snow event here in the past 20 years that didn't happen with temps at 31/32 degrees during the duration of the event.

This doesn't really bode well for though of you east of Jackson though.  ::doh::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2019, 03:25:57 PM

Honestly doesn't sound half bad for those of us in the west of the state.  Memphis has picked up some pretty great winter events from bowling ball lows cutting off around the 4 corners and drifting east eventually.  Who needs a cold air source when you can just produce your own dynamically via a combination of low sun angle, short daylight, and adiabatic processes.  I honestly can't even remember a 5+ inch snow event here in the past 20 years that didn't happen with temps at 31/32 degrees during the duration of the event.

This doesn't really bode well for though of you east of Jackson though.  ::doh::

2005-06 is what came to mind looking at the monthlies.  It had that similar look and that winter allowed for Memphis to score a moderate snow event while Middle TN into Central KY got the I-65 warm nose.   

Take the monthlies with a grain of the world's finest salt. I reminder this time last year we were salivating over them because they showed the goods while torching the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 11, 2019, 06:42:28 PM
After last year, I have little faith in any long range forecasts--even Euro's.  It showed so much good stuff last winter that never materialized--and that was just 2-3 weeks out.  So how can I believe it 2-3 months (or more) out? 

In my youth, I remember August was the month I would get "pumped" about the coming winter.  I would re-read my NWS pamphlets and flyers about winter storms that I had collected over the years.  I would gaze at the U.S. map hanging on my bedroom wall behind it's plexiglass protection, and draw hypothetical winter storms while fantasizing about the "big one" hitting in the coming months.   

Oh, to be young again, and not living in a greenhouse world.  It's just hard to get excited about winter anymore.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 11, 2019, 08:35:41 PM
If the foggy days in August thing pans out , we are in the money.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on August 12, 2019, 07:35:37 AM
People bemoaning a warming planet forget that places around of us have seen record or close to record cold and snow. Last year it was the upper Midwest. A few years ago it was the upper Ohio Valley.

Just have to wait our turn.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 12, 2019, 07:46:25 AM
People bemoaning a warming planet forget that places around of us have seen record or close to record cold and snow. Last year it was the upper Midwest. A few years ago it was the upper Ohio Valley.

Just have to wait our turn.

Better hurry. I'm not gettin' any younger here.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Drifter49 on August 12, 2019, 07:47:20 AM
Better hurry. I'm not gettin' any younger here.   :laugh:

Iím right there with ya!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 12, 2019, 09:11:14 AM
People bemoaning a warming planet forget that places around of us have seen record or close to record cold and snow. Last year it was the upper Midwest. A few years ago it was the upper Ohio Valley.

Just have to wait our turn.
yeah... big ice glaciers melting at record pace up in anartic  regions... think  our turn done passed us by ... the 70s and early mid 80s was our turn...
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Crockett on August 12, 2019, 09:52:57 AM
yeah... big ice glaciers melting at record pace up in anartic  regions... think  our turn done passed us by ... the 70s and early mid 80s was our turn...

 ::shrug::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 12, 2019, 06:23:52 PM
::shrug::

Truth over facts.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 12, 2019, 07:57:39 PM
Truth over facts.
that is the truth... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 12, 2019, 08:15:06 PM
that is the truth... lol

Touchť.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on August 13, 2019, 07:12:22 AM
yeah... big ice glaciers melting at record pace up in anartic  regions... think  our turn done passed us by ... the 70s and early mid 80s was our turn...

Glaciers are melting in "Anartic"?
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 13, 2019, 11:20:47 AM
Just looked at the latest Euro Seasonal- itís definitely favoring a central trough with normal temps for now for the traditional 3 month winter periods. As mentioned- take em with a grain this far out. In other news, the raging QBO took a huge plunge downward in July. Most of the time, the QBO continues to drop and goes negative although 2016-2017 was an exception where it dropped to neutral and went positive again- which is rare. Itís just one piece of the puzzle to watch as we go through the fall. A neutral to negative QBO favors more arctic outbreaks and may be more prevalent since ENSO will be neutral for winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 18, 2019, 07:09:52 AM
If one is to believe most of the winter outlooks now appearing on YouTube, then a truly epic winter it will be.   ::)

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020 (https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020)

Of course, earlier in this decade, the eastern U.S. was the one cold anomaly during multiple mostly warm winters globally.  So, anything is possible. 

More noteworthy to me is that we're already upon 2020.  Wow, where did this decade go??
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: BRUCE on August 18, 2019, 07:20:51 AM
 ::sleeping:: ::sleeping::
If one is to believe most of the winter outlooks now appearing on YouTube, then a truly epic winter it will be.   ::)

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020 (https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020)

Of course, earlier in this decade, the eastern U.S. was the one cold anomaly during multiple mostly warm winters globally.  So, anything is possible. 

More noteworthy to me is that we're already upon 2020.  Wow, where did this decade go??
::sleeping::
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: JayCee on August 18, 2019, 07:49:57 AM
::sleeping:: ::sleeping:: ::sleeping::

Yeah, I think the bears have the right idea.  They sleep through it, too.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on August 18, 2019, 08:45:06 AM
The ENSO if I had to make a guess will be Cool Neutral that falls just short of La-Nina (think 2016-17 as far as ENSO strength is to be considered). 

As we saw last winter ENSO (especially weaker events) plays a pretty small role.  The subtropical jet was the only El-Nino thing that happened last winter.   
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Flash on August 22, 2019, 07:47:15 AM
This is likely a function of flawed memory, but outside of 2015-16, it does seem ENSO played a bigger role in last decade's winters than this decade. Seems the last three, in particular, have been a tutorial on what derails ENSO on being a driving factor. If you matrix out the teleconnections since 2000, my guess would be you'd have more agreeing patterns (lining up one way or another to good winter/bad winter) early on...and more conflicting patterns (higher bustable winter forecast %) the closer you get to present.
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Thundersnow on August 22, 2019, 08:24:34 AM
The winter thread is to the fourth page, and it's still August? It's a blockbuster already.  ::cold:: ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: StormNine on August 22, 2019, 05:23:12 PM
This is likely a function of flawed memory, but outside of 2015-16, it does seem ENSO played a bigger role in the last decade's winters than this decade. Seems the last three, in particular, have been a tutorial on what derails ENSO on being a driving factor. If you matrix out the teleconnections since 2000, my guess would be you'd have more agreeing patterns (lining up one way or another to good winter/bad winter) early on...and more conflicting patterns (higher bustable winter forecast %) the closer you get to present.

I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.

Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.   
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 23, 2019, 07:16:23 AM
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.

Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.   

With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.
Title: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: Curt on August 23, 2019, 07:51:46 AM
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.

Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.   

With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190823/ad269462af12078d1177d132095b78c9.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2019-2020
Post by: snowdog on August 23, 2019, 10:44:06 AM
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190823/ad269462af12078d1177d132095b78c9.jpg)

Interesting to compare Northern and Southern Hemisphere SSTs.