Post by: Curt on August 02, 2019, 04:37:03 PM
ENSO- on the way to neutral
PDO- positive with possible large warm pool in NE pacific
QBO- currently very positive but has peaked and should see deceasing through fall and winter
NAO- it’s been negative all summer but who knows
Sun- we are nearing the solar minimum and in the quietist period nearing record books
Bruce- SER and lots of severe
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/26687211a25679b281d3a33038ccf322.jpg)
Canadian Seasonal Temps
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/52206ea700a8cd633f95bc83636a2e51.jpg)
CFS2
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/063a1ae4691dd209c7fac1ac3938b79d.jpg)
Last year’s CFS2 at this time
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190802/75cb32810924484abaa10fe7a1a6413b.jpg)
Actuality. As much as it nailed it in the southeast, it sucked in the plains.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 02, 2019, 05:03:01 PM
Post by: mamMATTus on August 02, 2019, 08:19:06 PM
Post by: Matthew on August 02, 2019, 09:20:40 PM
Post by: Charles L. on August 03, 2019, 07:39:30 AM
Post by: BRUCE on August 03, 2019, 07:49:32 AM
I mean, this winter can’t be any worse than last years...so that is already a positive.not quite so sure on that.... lol
Post by: Charles L. on August 03, 2019, 08:50:23 AM
not quite so sure on that.... lol
I didn’t even see an inch of snow total. Only noticeable event was the 1/4” ice accretion we received on Dec 9th
Post by: StormNine on August 03, 2019, 09:00:25 AM
Other than that with a likely Neutral ENSO for 2019-20 the possibilities are pretty endless. A Neutral ENSO only means that the ENSO will not play a role in the winter. Which means that other factors like PNA, MJO, etc. will be an even greater role than normal.
I think the QBO may be the index to really watch this winter. If it still is raging positive then you have to contend with another fast-moving/active jet stream that will make it harder for cold air to settle in place and also produce a setup that can feature even more flooding as storms attack nearly relentlessly.
After the QBO it is all about either MJO (which I found out last winter sometimes is connected to our pattern and sometimes is not). Last year when the MJO was favorable (Phase 8) it wasn't connected to our pattern but it certainly was connected when it was in crappy Phase 5 and 6 (funny how that works). Then it is the PNA which went hard negative in February and caused Montana to have a Fab Feb instead of us.
Post Merge: August 03, 2019, 09:09:37 AM
I would actually lean towards a pretty warm Canada/USA as a whole this upcoming winter. El Nino's tend to scour out the cold air and the Northern Plains has had 3 straight winters of below-average which in a warming world is kinda odd.
I think this is the winter where North Dakota and Montana get quite warm. That means that our area unless we have a solid -NAO will probably be mild as well but if the core of the riding is to our northwest then we could sneak in some ULL's or even a Miller A bomb. I would like to see the Atlantic Ocean cool a bit so that we can temper the SE Ridge at times.
My gut at this time is like +1 to +3 winter for us but a +5 for North Dakota with no significant below average regions in much of the US or Canada. With below average to average snowfall for our region. A lot of the areas that did well last winter I think will take a big step back this winter in snowfall.
Post by: Matthew on August 03, 2019, 09:54:31 AM
Post by: Nash_LSU on August 03, 2019, 10:43:34 AM
Here's my forecast: Another bust.
Really going out on a limb with that forecast. ;)
But for real, the past few winters have been so demoralizing. Bust after bust after bust.
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2019, 10:48:17 AM
Post by: Curt on August 03, 2019, 10:52:39 AM
Post by: Matthew on August 03, 2019, 01:32:40 PM
come christmas time... see se ridge develop... look for big svr. Outbreak.... word on street. Is that... jan feb more tornados plus svr potential... see big trough & se ridge develop... on feb 8 2020...
I predict another bust!
Just messing with you Bruce!
One thing I predict will happen more than once is I44 Will get its big snows and we will get cold rain!! Bet on it!
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2019, 03:55:06 PM
I predict another bust!
Just messing with you Bruce!
One thing I predict will happen more than once is I44 Will get its big snows and we will get cold rain!! Bet on it!
seen that happen... already we can see se ridge setup.... i44 get the winter wx. While se torches... expect lots of severe wx... in our area
Post by: Matthew on August 03, 2019, 06:30:52 PM
Post by: JayCee on August 04, 2019, 07:04:07 AM
Post by: snowdog on August 05, 2019, 09:35:51 AM
Other than that with a likely Neutral ENSO for 2019-20 the possibilities are pretty endless. A Neutral ENSO only means that the ENSO will not play a role in the winter. Which means that other factors like PNA, MJO, etc. will be an even greater role than normal.
Due to the low solar activity (we are between cycles from 24 to 25), we should see an active polar jet. The last winter that was between cycles was 2009/2010, and it was an unusually cold/stormy winter.
Post by: bugalou on August 08, 2019, 05:09:55 PM
Post Merge: August 08, 2019, 05:13:30 PM
Well I am getting where I don’t like cold anymore. I love snow but seems all we get here is cold and dry or cold rain. So a mild in the 50’s winter let it be or let’s just keep fall like wx thru winter.
I will permaban you for this type of crazy talk. Watch your mouth. ::shaking_finger:: ::rofl::
(I am kidding for those of you sarcasm deficient)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 09, 2019, 07:41:30 AM
Post by: mamMATTus on August 09, 2019, 12:37:51 PM
Let me flip a coin, then another and another. We have been talking about this for 10 years. When it comes down to it, Winter Wx is very local and is usually not widespread when it comes to moderate accumulations. My point being? We can have all the signs for a good Winter then have a good winter but for who? One in Nashville may say it was horrible while everyone around us had a epic winter.... Its fun to talk about, but events are too localized to make any assumptions any year.
You nailed it. Last year was the last for getting my hopes up about any winter weather in TN. It’s a complete luck of the draw. When it’s physically falling through the atmosphere, I’ll believe it. Not buying into anymore more models or winterwx forecasts.
Post by: snowdog on August 09, 2019, 05:19:49 PM
So, with that said, this is our year. 14+" of pure white powdery crystalized goodness.
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2019, 07:26:21 PM
After '09-10, I thought we might be turning a corner. And, indeed, we had many "better" winters from 2009 until 2015, with a few duds in the mix. But, overall, we definitely had some colder weather, and experienced our first sub-zero temperatures since 1994 for many of us. But then our Super-Nino developed in late 2015, and it caused our winters to revert to pre-2009 style with few Arctic intrusions this far south.
So, after the last 3 winters that produced little, and especially after the last one--the winter with so much promise that gave us nothing, I'm indifferent. Numb. I don't feel anything except the dread of losing hours of daylight, and enduring multiple 35 degree rainy days.
Post by: schneitzeit on August 09, 2019, 08:04:44 PM
Post by: Drifter49 on August 09, 2019, 08:33:43 PM
It's August and we're already complaining ::rofl::
That’s how we roll
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: JayCee on August 10, 2019, 07:05:13 AM
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2019, 09:49:50 AM
Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February.
It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW. That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it.
Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter. A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.
Post by: BRUCE on August 11, 2019, 12:41:25 PM
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0:D 8)....keep on preaching brother... ::fingerscrossed::
Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February.
It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW. That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it.
Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter. A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.
Post by: bugalou on August 11, 2019, 02:03:33 PM
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0
Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February.
It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW. That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it.
Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter. A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.
Honestly doesn't sound half bad for those of us in the west of the state. Memphis has picked up some pretty great winter events from bowling ball lows cutting off around the 4 corners and drifting east eventually. Who needs a cold air source when you can just produce your own dynamically via a combination of low sun angle, short daylight, and adiabatic processes. I honestly can't even remember a 5+ inch snow event here in the past 20 years that didn't happen with temps at 31/32 degrees during the duration of the event.
This doesn't really bode well for though of you east of Jackson though. ::doh::
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2019, 03:25:57 PM
Honestly doesn't sound half bad for those of us in the west of the state. Memphis has picked up some pretty great winter events from bowling ball lows cutting off around the 4 corners and drifting east eventually. Who needs a cold air source when you can just produce your own dynamically via a combination of low sun angle, short daylight, and adiabatic processes. I honestly can't even remember a 5+ inch snow event here in the past 20 years that didn't happen with temps at 31/32 degrees during the duration of the event.
This doesn't really bode well for though of you east of Jackson though. ::doh::
2005-06 is what came to mind looking at the monthlies. It had that similar look and that winter allowed for Memphis to score a moderate snow event while Middle TN into Central KY got the I-65 warm nose.
Take the monthlies with a grain of the world's finest salt. I reminder this time last year we were salivating over them because they showed the goods while torching the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Post by: JayCee on August 11, 2019, 06:42:28 PM
In my youth, I remember August was the month I would get "pumped" about the coming winter. I would re-read my NWS pamphlets and flyers about winter storms that I had collected over the years. I would gaze at the U.S. map hanging on my bedroom wall behind it's plexiglass protection, and draw hypothetical winter storms while fantasizing about the "big one" hitting in the coming months.
Oh, to be young again, and not living in a greenhouse world. It's just hard to get excited about winter anymore.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 11, 2019, 08:35:41 PM
Post by: snowdog on August 12, 2019, 07:35:37 AM
Just have to wait our turn.
Post by: JayCee on August 12, 2019, 07:46:25 AM
People bemoaning a warming planet forget that places around of us have seen record or close to record cold and snow. Last year it was the upper Midwest. A few years ago it was the upper Ohio Valley.
Just have to wait our turn.
Better hurry. I'm not gettin' any younger here. :laugh:
Post by: Drifter49 on August 12, 2019, 07:47:20 AM
Better hurry. I'm not gettin' any younger here. :laugh:
I’m right there with ya!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: BRUCE on August 12, 2019, 09:11:14 AM
People bemoaning a warming planet forget that places around of us have seen record or close to record cold and snow. Last year it was the upper Midwest. A few years ago it was the upper Ohio Valley.yeah... big ice glaciers melting at record pace up in anartic regions... think our turn done passed us by ... the 70s and early mid 80s was our turn...
Just have to wait our turn.
Post by: Crockett on August 12, 2019, 09:52:57 AM
yeah... big ice glaciers melting at record pace up in anartic regions... think our turn done passed us by ... the 70s and early mid 80s was our turn...
::shrug::
Post by: Curt on August 12, 2019, 06:23:52 PM
::shrug::
Truth over facts.
Post by: BRUCE on August 12, 2019, 07:57:39 PM
Truth over facts.that is the truth... lol
Post by: Curt on August 12, 2019, 08:15:06 PM
that is the truth... lol
Touché.
Post by: snowdog on August 13, 2019, 07:12:22 AM
yeah... big ice glaciers melting at record pace up in anartic regions... think our turn done passed us by ... the 70s and early mid 80s was our turn...
Glaciers are melting in "Anartic"?
Post by: Curt on August 13, 2019, 11:20:47 AM
Post by: JayCee on August 18, 2019, 07:09:52 AM
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020 (https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020)
Of course, earlier in this decade, the eastern U.S. was the one cold anomaly during multiple mostly warm winters globally. So, anything is possible.
More noteworthy to me is that we're already upon 2020. Wow, where did this decade go??
Post by: BRUCE on August 18, 2019, 07:20:51 AM
If one is to believe most of the winter outlooks now appearing on YouTube, then a truly epic winter it will be. ::)::sleeping::
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020 (https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=winter+outlook+2019-2020)
Of course, earlier in this decade, the eastern U.S. was the one cold anomaly during multiple mostly warm winters globally. So, anything is possible.
More noteworthy to me is that we're already upon 2020. Wow, where did this decade go??
Post by: JayCee on August 18, 2019, 07:49:57 AM
::sleeping:: ::sleeping:: ::sleeping::
Yeah, I think the bears have the right idea. They sleep through it, too.
Post by: StormNine on August 18, 2019, 08:45:06 AM
As we saw last winter ENSO (especially weaker events) plays a pretty small role. The subtropical jet was the only El-Nino thing that happened last winter.
Post by: Flash on August 22, 2019, 07:47:15 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on August 22, 2019, 08:24:34 AM
Post by: StormNine on August 22, 2019, 05:23:12 PM
This is likely a function of flawed memory, but outside of 2015-16, it does seem ENSO played a bigger role in the last decade's winters than this decade. Seems the last three, in particular, have been a tutorial on what derails ENSO on being a driving factor. If you matrix out the teleconnections since 2000, my guess would be you'd have more agreeing patterns (lining up one way or another to good winter/bad winter) early on...and more conflicting patterns (higher bustable winter forecast %) the closer you get to present.
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.
Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.
Post by: Curt on August 23, 2019, 07:16:23 AM
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.
Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.
Post by: Curt on August 23, 2019, 07:51:46 AM
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.
Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190823/ad269462af12078d1177d132095b78c9.jpg)
Post by: snowdog on August 23, 2019, 10:44:06 AM
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190823/ad269462af12078d1177d132095b78c9.jpg)
Interesting to compare Northern and Southern Hemisphere SSTs.
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 24, 2019, 09:06:32 PM
Post by: Charles L. on August 25, 2019, 07:52:58 AM
Its almost time for the snow to start falling. Already signs above 10k feet that fall is coming.
I. Am. Ready.
Post by: StormNine on August 25, 2019, 10:34:17 AM
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190823/ad269462af12078d1177d132095b78c9.jpg)
If that stays I would look for a -EPO, +PNA, +PDO, +NAO, and +AO pattern.
The CFS2 now is on board that we will cool enough for a Weak La Nina episode or at least a Cool Neutral that is borderline. That could create a variety of conditions that range from jet stream rising into Canada and causing winter death in Southern Canada and the USA with the murder weapon being zonal flow or if the EPO and PNA are strong enough it can be enough to send occasional troughs into the Central and perhaps Eastern USA (think our current pattern this summer).
Current Analogs (which bombed and went fail mode last year):
1952-53
1983-84
1995-96
2005-06
2017-18
If things go right in a +PNA/-EPO mixed with +NAO then 2013-14 would be a decent secondary analog just based on that.
With this pattern, we may be looking at least a decent severe weather/tornado threat or two during the November-Early March timeframe.
Post by: mamMATTus on August 27, 2019, 01:00:39 PM
Can you feel the hype and disappointment already?
Post by: cgauxknox on August 27, 2019, 02:36:18 PM
Here’s this year’s nickname for Winter 2019-2020: Polar Coaster.::snowman:: ::cold:: ::drowning:: ::blowup:: ::panic:: ::twister:: ::blowtorch::
Can you feel the hype and disappointment already?
Post by: snowdog on August 27, 2019, 04:23:23 PM
Here’s this year’s nickname for Winter 2019-2020: Polar Coaster.
Can you feel the hype and disappointment already?
Some of our posters need to stock up on Dramamine.
Post by: BRUCE on August 27, 2019, 05:46:56 PM
Some of our posters need to stock up on Dramamine.they may need something stronger than that... ;)
Post by: Greyhound on August 28, 2019, 10:23:27 AM
Some of our posters need to stock up on Dramamine.
More like Prozac, Xanax and Jack Daniels
Post by: schneitzeit on August 28, 2019, 01:17:29 PM
Post by: joemomma on August 28, 2019, 03:44:22 PM
Might snow, might not.
Might be cold, might not.
Honestly, we don't know what it's going to be doing much more than 3 days from now, let alone 3 months. Sure, we can look at trends and connections, but even those have failed us over the past couple of years. Last year had all the players on the field (that we know of), but they didn't show up to the same game at the same time for most of us. Sure, there were some that cashed in, but most of us didn't get to see much.
In the meantime, it's fun to track and *hopefully* get to cash in at some point.
Post by: StormNine on September 02, 2019, 09:25:05 AM
After that sour taste that last winter left in my mouth where the exact opposite and I mean exact occurred than what is expected I have decided to stick my neck out again this winter.
This winter is a bit fun because you have a variety of outlooks that range from Winter Cancel to Polar Coaster, mostly because there really isn't a strong ENSO signal or even a strong like I think the PNA will absolutely be + like you see in some winters.
This outlook assumes the following: A very weak -ENSO (around -0.5 to -0.7C), + NAO (but not as a much as previous winters because the Atlantic isn't quite as warm as last year), + AO, +PDO, +PNA, and solidly +QBO with a semi active Northern Stream. There will also be times where zonal or semizonal flow will keep much of the colder air locked in the poles.
Analogs used were a mix of 1952-53, 2005-06, and 2017-18, but also the overall pattern of this summer so far was taken into consideration.
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
Post by: snowdog on September 02, 2019, 11:20:01 AM
However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.
Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.
Post by: Curt on September 04, 2019, 02:58:24 PM
-Plenty of potential for a severe winter.
-East will have to overcome early warmth.
-SST analogs are amazingly close to a blend of 2013-14 and 2014-15.
-Warm northeastern Pacific and cooler Nino1+2 usually a great cold signal.
-Snowfall should be generous.
Post by: BRUCE on September 04, 2019, 08:33:59 PM
Post by: Curt on September 04, 2019, 08:34:54 PM
CSFV2 model ... ::blowtorch:: this December January February thus far...
Yep. And it was in 2013-14 and 2014-15 both of which had a warm northeast pacific. If the CFS2 is your argument on Sept 1 for warm or cold...you better try again.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/643a7af5bfb9b01933789dd68b86da88.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/40a7409616136da7bf8e2e7ef7a9ae07.jpg)
Post by: BRUCE on September 04, 2019, 10:27:41 PM
Yep. And it was in 2013-14 and 2014-15 both of which had a warm northeast pacific. If the CFS2 is your argument on Sept 1 for warm or cold...you better try again.dont shoot the messenger ... wo... lighten up there Francis ... just stating what model shows...
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/643a7af5bfb9b01933789dd68b86da88.jpg)[img width=600 height=452]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/40a7409616136da7bf8e2e7ef7a9ae07.jpg]
Post by: Curt on September 05, 2019, 07:16:12 AM
dont shoot the messenger ... wo... lighten up there Francis ... just stating what model shows...
I’m just having fun poking holes
which let face it- isn’t that hard.
Post by: snowdog on September 24, 2019, 07:05:28 AM
Post by: mempho on October 06, 2019, 06:04:21 AM
I've started to look more into solar forcings. I find it interesting. As I stated earlier, we are in between solar cycles which leads to a Polar Coaster type setup (active polar jet).We also had very low solar activity throughout the cycle, so this is the first time we've observed a minimum after a low max cycle.
However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.
Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Post by: StormNine on October 06, 2019, 08:45:44 PM
1952-53
2005-06
2013-14
2014-15
2017-18
I would consider a mix of 2005-06 and 2013-14 to be the primary. Not as warm as 2005-06 but not as cold as 2013-14 somewhere in the middle.
Other factors I am looking at are
- Sea Level Temps and a possible +PNA/+NAO combo
- The Neutral ENSO that may act both like a Nina and a Nino at times
- Very active Northern Stream that we already saw with the Montana Blizzard and the flooding in the Upper Midwest.
- Climate Change/Global Warming and Low Sunspot Activity also play a role. They kinda counteract a bit in my outlook with a slight lean towards Climate Change.
Summary:
- Expect what I think will be a very changeable winter with the potential for our area to be near or on a battleground zone between ridging and a northern stream system. Meaning that I would probably expect at least 2 overrunning events that could be wintry or could be flooding and at least 1 severe weather threat for KY and TN.
- I believe the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will probably have their 3rd below normal winter in the role due to the northern stream
- Warmer ocean water means that ridging will be factors on both the Pacific and Atlantic side. At one point in the winter I would expect to see a very warm period all across the USA and Canada as these features will occasionally merge, especially if we linger around MJO phases 5 and 6.
- Having a stronger northern stream means more energy to beat the ridge. I would expect even SE TN and parts of the Deep South to have at least 1 legit threat even if they end up finishing the winter above average.
- Here is something really interesting. The SOI is leaning in more of a El-Nino direction but we have a Neutral to border Nina ENSO. Meaning that we could see the Subtropical Jet come to life with the active Northern Stream. I think we would have the chance to at one point to have a rare Triple Phase system, meaning a very strong system.
Overall temperature wise I am not expecting a dud winter, but I am not also expecting a solid cold winter. Something like a slightly more action-packed and slightly colder 2017-18 would probably be what I would forecast. With everyone seeing at least 1 threat and potentially a solid winter for NW TN.
Post Merge: October 06, 2019, 09:10:49 PM
[attachimg=1]
Outside of the coasts and the Desert SW/parts of the SE it might just be a Polar Coaster after all.
Post by: Flash on October 07, 2019, 07:25:36 AM
My analog set for this winter is
1952-53
2005-06
2013-14
2014-15
2017-18
I would consider a mix of 2005-06 and 2013-14 to be the primary. Not as warm as 2005-06 but not as cold as 2013-14 somewhere in the middle.
Other factors I am looking at are
- Sea Level Temps and a possible +PNA/+NAO combo
- The Neutral ENSO that may act both like a Nina and a Nino at times
- Very active Northern Stream that we already saw with the Montana Blizzard and the flooding in the Upper Midwest.
- Climate Change/Global Warming and Low Sunspot Activity also play a role. They kinda counteract a bit in my outlook with a slight lean towards Climate Change.
Summary:
- Expect what I think will be a very changeable winter with the potential for our area to be near or on a battleground zone between ridging and a northern stream system. Meaning that I would probably expect at least 2 overrunning events that could be wintry or could be flooding and at least 1 severe weather threat for KY and TN.
- I believe the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will probably have their 3rd below normal winter in the role due to the northern stream
- Warmer ocean water means that ridging will be factors on both the Pacific and Atlantic side. At one point in the winter I would expect to see a very warm period all across the USA and Canada as these features will occasionally merge, especially if we linger around MJO phases 5 and 6.
- Having a stronger northern stream means more energy to beat the ridge. I would expect even SE TN and parts of the Deep South to have at least 1 legit threat even if they end up finishing the winter above average.
- Here is something really interesting. The SOI is leaning in more of a El-Nino direction but we have a Neutral to border Nina ENSO. Meaning that we could see the Subtropical Jet come to life with the active Northern Stream. I think we would have the chance to at one point to have a rare Triple Phase system, meaning a very strong system.
Overall temperature wise I am not expecting a dud winter, but I am not also expecting a solid cold winter. Something like a slightly more action-packed and slightly colder 2017-18 would probably be what I would forecast. With everyone seeing at least 1 threat and potentially a solid winter for NW TN.
Post Merge: October 06, 2019, 09:10:49 PM
(Attachment Link)
Outside of the coasts and the Desert SW/parts of the SE it might just be a Polar Coaster after all.
Great work! After last winter, I'll take this look. Snowchased to Mount Vernon last year and may do it again if this verifies. Also, I know many look down on '05-06 due to the January +10 temp anomalies and the busted snowcast of 2/10/06, but December/February was primed for decent action for most of our viewing areas. Seems the decadal trend has been 'one month on, two months off' for winter showing up in the DJF time frame so anytime you get 'two months on, one month off', take it and run.
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2019, 03:39:42 PM
The other not so good solution is the EPO doesn't cooperate then you may have a January 2006 repeat or even worse 2001-02 depending on how long that lasts.
Those are my thoughts based on all of that, but there are so many pieces and scernaros that really anything from 2013-14 to 2005-06 to 2001-02 is possible.
Post by: bugalou on October 10, 2019, 11:17:12 AM
I've started to look more into solar forcings. I find it interesting. As I stated earlier, we are in between solar cycles which leads to a Polar Coaster type setup (active polar jet).
However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.
Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.
I find this interesting. So little is understood about how sun spot activity combined with Earth's orbit perturbations and its effects on the weather. I can see how ocean current activity, sea temps, and this solar variables could combine in ways to really drive the weather. While we have a decent understanding on the first two, data on the solar related variables is far less understood.
Post by: BRUCE on October 10, 2019, 11:27:19 AM
I find this interesting. So little is understood about how sun spot activity combined with Earth's orbit perturbations and its effects on the weather. I can see how ocean current activity, sea temps, and this solar variables could combine in ways to really drive the weather. While we have a decent understanding on the first two, data on the solar related variables is far less understood.sun spot n solar r way over rated ... doubt it has much effect to be honest ... imo..
Post by: bugalou on October 10, 2019, 11:45:32 AM
sun spot n solar r way over rated ... doubt it has much effect to be honest ... imo..
The data out there shows its minor, but everything I have seen does not combine other factors. There is not a lot of data here and I think calling it over rated is premature.
More over this does not factor minor changes in Earth's orbit from year to year. Considering the the ice ages are thought to be caused by earth's orbit extending further out from the sun, and the fact that they are regular occurrences it would back some sort of long term oscillation in earth's mean distance from the sun.
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2019, 03:11:57 PM
Post by: snowdog on October 11, 2019, 07:36:23 AM
The space features are important like sunspot data. The question becomes how much does the cooling influence of the sunspots compare to the warming influence of climate change/global warming. I think the climate forcing is probably stronger than the solar, but that doesn't mean that we need to ignore the solar forcings as it may impact things like having an active northern jet stream which play a huge role in how our cool season goes down.
I disagree. We don't even fully understand solar and it's impact. For the first time the IPCC will have solar forcings in their model output. A good video on solar forcings and climate change https://youtu.be/rEWoPzaDmOA (https://youtu.be/rEWoPzaDmOA)