Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Tropical Spin Zone => Topic started by: cgauxknox on July 09, 2019, 05:24:14 AM

Title: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 09, 2019, 05:24:14 AM
With NHC still putting an 80% probability of this system developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by mid-week I decided to chance starting a thread on it.  Because we saw the MCV that will ultimately spawn this system come through Tennessee it seems like it's worth a thread just to have a place to go back to in the records.

As with all forms of severe weather I'm hoping for minimal impact and obviously no loss of life or property with this storm.  The unique aspect of a system swinging through Tennessee then down through the deep South and out to the Gulf to spawn as a tropical system and come back on shore is just so unique that as weather enthusiasts we have to watch it and see what happens.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: JayCee on July 09, 2019, 07:11:33 AM
This is a pretty unique system, dropping as a disturbance from the Midwest into the southeast U.S., then into the Gulf, only to turn around for second visit as a tropical system.  I've seen it happen with old frontal boundaries that linger off the coast for days, but nothing quite like this. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Mrs. WXHD on July 09, 2019, 07:16:19 AM
Thank you for starting the thread! My family is currently vacationing on Dauphin Island and are watching this closely. This will help us make an informed decision on whether to stay or head out early. Iíve never heard of a storm developing like this before.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 09, 2019, 07:43:32 AM
Thank you for starting the thread! My family is currently vacationing on Dauphin Island and are watching this closely. This will help us make an informed decision on whether to stay or head out early. Iíve never heard of a storm developing like this before.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I hope it holds off to let you finish your vacation!  Thankfully you're one of the smart ones who is monitoring forecasts and conditions so you don't get trapped.  As we've seen with other storms over the years, if you find yourself asking whether or not you should leave then the answer is yes!
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Thundersnow on July 09, 2019, 08:16:08 AM
Something needs to clear up the toxic algae problem in the Gulf... I hear MS beaches are closed.

This is an effect of the MS River running high and pumping out into the Gulf.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 10, 2019, 05:57:26 AM
Forecasts this morning are increasingly confident that this will be at least a Tropical Storm,  with a growing chance to reach hurricane status before landfall sometime this weekend.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Thundersnow on July 10, 2019, 08:34:07 AM
You can tell something is brewing in the Gulf... special marine warnings off LA and even a TOR warning around NOLA.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: JayCee on July 10, 2019, 08:44:24 AM
Track of the potential tropical system looks to go over areas that don't need a huge deluge of rain, mainly the lower Mississippi Valley.  Arkansas in particular would like to see it go somewhere else.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: dwagner88 on July 10, 2019, 10:12:01 AM
Looks like this won't bring much in the way of rain to this end of the state, but it will bring an end to the sunny weather. The GFS is predicting 100% cloud cover starting Friday morning 7/12 all the way through Saturday morning 7/20. Low temps are in the 60's and highs in the mid 80's for this entire period. It will be gloomy, but it won't be hot.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: memphishogfan on July 10, 2019, 10:44:11 AM
Huge flooding issues in NOLA already and the system isn't even organized yet.

oh and just for giggles the 3k NAM must be high as a kite.

(https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019071012/060/ref1km_ptype.us_se.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: mamMATTus on July 10, 2019, 11:03:28 AM
Whatever happens with this system after landfall, I want it staying far away from Middle TN. I want dry weather for an extended period of time.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Nash_LSU on July 10, 2019, 11:34:47 AM
oh and just for giggles the 3k NAM must be high as a kite.

 ::rofl:: Isn't that lower than the lowest ever recorded cyclone pressure? If that materializes, it's been good knowing y'all. I'll report conditions in Baton Rouge to y'all until it wipes me and everyone else in SLA off the face earth.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: JayCee on July 10, 2019, 01:02:02 PM
Looks like this won't bring much in the way of rain to this end of the state, but it will bring an end to the sunny weather. The GFS is predicting 100% cloud cover starting Friday morning 7/12 all the way through Saturday morning 7/20. Low temps are in the 60's and highs in the mid 80's for this entire period. It will be gloomy, but it won't be hot.

Hopefully, Thursday's front will bring some much needed rain here, but if not, I'll take the clouds and cooler temps.  Ground is cracked and parched from 2 weeks of little rain, and a long stretch of 90's.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 10, 2019, 01:54:50 PM
Even though this isn't predicted to stall out like Harvey (thankfully) the forecast is starting to talk about localized rain amounts of 2+ FEET.  Given what has already happened in New Orleans today and how oversaturated much of the area of potential impact is this is very concerning.  Almost regardless of where it goes it will probably have bad impacts on the ongoing Mississippi River flooding as well.

Just as national attention has largely ignored the slow-moving disaster that is this year's flooding up and down the Mississippi there seems to be relatively little interest in a TS or Hurricane that may have an impact well beyond its wind speed.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 10, 2019, 03:54:56 PM
NAM still NAMing at 18z.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: mamMATTus on July 10, 2019, 06:56:04 PM
I just saw the 4Warn in house model and it brings Barry right through Middle TN over the weekend. This is the exact opposite of what I wanted.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 10, 2019, 06:58:32 PM
They've got hurricane watches up for most of the Louisiana coast now.   News I was seeing during the day is seriously discussing the Mississippi topping 20 feet in New Orleans,  which would top the levees.   People are justifiably concerned about this one.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: WXHD on July 10, 2019, 08:39:29 PM
Weíre down here on Dauphin island. Seas have gotten rough, wind is constant. Itís kinda nice watching the change.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 11, 2019, 05:01:15 AM
Latest briefing from NHC:

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 110845
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE IS NOT A DEPRESSION YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE
SOON...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.5 North, longitude 88.2 West.  The system is moving toward the
west near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a west-northwest motion is expected on
Friday followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday.  On the
forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana
coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late
Friday.

Although the thunderstorm activity is not well organized at this
time, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: BRUCE on July 11, 2019, 05:45:07 AM
Meg already starting mention 5 to 6 inches rain for parts west Tennessee .. if models continue to hold
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 11, 2019, 06:00:45 AM
Meg already starting mention 5 to 6 inches rain for parts west Tennessee .. if models continue to hold
That certainly won't help the Mississippi flooding and could make the New Orleans event a long-lasting one.  I'm really getting concerned about just how much is going to pour into that watershed in the next week.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: dwagner88 on July 11, 2019, 06:57:37 AM
Meg already starting mention 5 to 6 inches rain for parts west Tennessee .. if models continue to hold
Something is happening. The GFS jumped to almost 7" for here. It had been showing under 2".
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Charles L. on July 11, 2019, 09:50:48 AM
The HWRF has this look for Sunday afternoon.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: BRUCE on July 11, 2019, 10:29:54 AM
The HWRF has this look for Sunday afternoon.

(Attachment Link)
interesting ... also depending weíre the center of the left over from Barry... anyone one the right hand side can see some severe threat... including some quick spin ups in the heavier bands ...
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: gcbama on July 11, 2019, 10:33:57 AM
I just saw the 4Warn in house model and it brings Barry right through Middle TN over the weekend. This is the exact opposite of what I wanted.

very confused with that, since the forecast track has the center off the coast of Louisiana on sat morning?
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: bugalou on July 11, 2019, 10:34:52 AM
interesting ... also depending weíre the center of the left over from Barry... anyone one the right hand side can see some severe threat... including some quick spin ups in the heavier bands ...

Thus far it looks like Memphis is going to be in the 'perfect' spot for mini supercell activity.  Aside from the obvious coastal impacts, it maybe a busy weekend for JAN, MEG, and maybe BNA with flooding and tornado warnings.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: dwagner88 on July 11, 2019, 10:51:20 AM
The HWRF has this look for Sunday afternoon.

(Attachment Link)
If the GFS has a similar track, I can see the reason for the big uptick in qpf. That track puts middle and east TN on the "dirty" side of the storm with a very strong moisture fetch from the gulf.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Thundersnow on July 11, 2019, 01:50:50 PM
This is a fascinating scenario with the complex that came through last weekend going into the Gulf and then coming back up as a TC to the same area.

It's like the little guy that went off to college (the Gulf) and will now come back home (to Tennessee) and raise havoc as a big shot.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: bugalou on July 11, 2019, 02:00:19 PM
This is a fascinating scenario with the complex that came through last weekend going into the Gulf and then coming back up as a TC to the same area.

It's like the little guy that went off to college (the Gulf) and will now come back home (to Tennessee) and raise havoc as a big shot.

Was it a MCS coming off  continent?  We may need to dig up a full satellite loop of that.  Home grown systems can be fascinating.

Post Merge: July 11, 2019, 02:01:30 PM
This thread is pinned until further notice.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Charles L. on July 11, 2019, 02:05:04 PM
Trying to get updates, but is Twitter down for anyone else?
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: bugalou on July 11, 2019, 02:08:19 PM
Trying to get updates, but is Twitter down for anyone else?

Twitter is down for me too.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 11, 2019, 02:10:22 PM
Twitter is down for me too.
downrightnow.com is showing a likely service disruption that started around half an hour ago.  It seems to be the whole platform rather than individual accounts.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Curt on July 11, 2019, 02:16:11 PM
Euro is getting in to its ďrefuse to budgeĒ mode taking Barry just west of the MS River Sunday and Sunday night. That should place much of Tennessee in a favorable position for copious amounts of tropical moisture. If that is where this ends up, there should be a decent sheer situation on the northeast flank- giving way to possible tornadoes albeit short lived. This actually could produce more tornadoes than we saw all spring.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 11, 2019, 03:28:59 PM
Latest  rainfall projections from NHC.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: StormNine on July 11, 2019, 07:45:44 PM
WPC latest outlook shows a widespread 5-7 inch rain event across SW Tennessee.  With the banded nature of the storms, it is possible that some areas could locally exceed 7 inches.   
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: BeetleChe13 on July 11, 2019, 08:24:37 PM
Former LaVergne resident here that relocated to Florida 3 years ago. I HAVE to say thank you to everyone for covering this storm and your dedication to all things weather, not just local weather. The only equivalent I have found for this place is flhurricane.com, but it not nearly as active or personable. This forum will always be home to me.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 12, 2019, 06:28:25 AM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 12, 2019, 07:11:05 AM
I wish there was some way Tennessee could get the good rain out of this system without all the flooding that will inevitably happen farther south of us.  The last news I was watching on Barry last night they were concerned that the storm was sitting and going so slowly over the Gulf.  Let's hope it picks up speed once it landfalls rather than dragging slow, training rain bands over areas that are already flooded.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Charles L. on July 12, 2019, 08:14:34 AM
Recon picking up surface winds north of 60 mph now (still waiting to see if any of those readings are flagged though)

Will be interesting to see if Barry makes a run towards hurricane status today, but regardless the flood threat is of highest concern and will be no matter what strength Barry makes landfall.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: dwagner88 on July 12, 2019, 08:27:33 AM
I wish there was some way Tennessee could get the good rain out of this system without all the flooding that will inevitably happen farther south of us.  The last news I was watching on Barry last night they were concerned that the storm was sitting and going so slowly over the Gulf.  Let's hope it picks up speed once it landfalls rather than dragging slow, training rain bands over areas that are already flooded.
They've actually been fortunate so far. The northern half of the storm has been almost totally devoid of convection until this morning. The heaviest rains have fallen over the open Gulf, not the coast.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 12, 2019, 10:40:09 AM
At the 10 CDT update Barry is at 65mph and 998mb, only crawling along at 5mph.  I won't be surprised to see it reach hurricane strength today.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: schneitzeit on July 12, 2019, 12:53:34 PM
This is getting interesting for those of us in the western half of the state.  ::yum::
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on July 12, 2019, 01:07:04 PM
This is getting interesting for those of us in the western half of the state.  ::yum::

We are going to need a bigger boat!
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: dwagner88 on July 12, 2019, 01:53:38 PM
Euro doesn't look too bad for NOLA in terms of rainfall. Only 1-3" as they get "dry-slotted". Amounts of 12-20" are just to their west. Not sure how much impact the surge will have though. I bet there isn't much leeway for the river backing up with the ongoing seasonal flooding.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: bugalou on July 12, 2019, 06:32:52 PM
Euro doesn't look too bad for NOLA in terms of rainfall. Only 1-3" as they get "dry-slotted". Amounts of 12-20" are just to their west. Not sure how much impact the surge will have though. I bet there isn't much leeway for the river backing up with the ongoing seasonal flooding.

NOLA's whole issue is with the MS river being so high in July.  Literally any backing up of the MS Barry can create could create a dangerous situation in a hurry even if it it doesnt rain a drop there.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Thundersnow on July 13, 2019, 09:09:32 AM
Mobile area is getting pounded by a training band.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 13, 2019, 10:08:57 AM
The 10 AM CDT advisory from NHC makes this an official Cat 1.  First landfalling hurricane of 2019.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Thundersnow on July 13, 2019, 10:21:42 AM
I guess I wasn't watching this as closely as I thought- I didn't realize it was making landfall already, until I noticed the diffused looking circulation on shore on radar and satellite. The core of the storm is pretty dry, with most of the precip well off to the east on the right side of the storm. I was watching the bands further east earlier and just assumed the center of circulation was still well off shore.

The core must be in a fairly hostile environment, which, by looking at it, is amazing that it was able to reach hurricane status.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Curt on July 13, 2019, 10:41:52 AM
I guess I wasn't watching this as closely as I thought- I didn't realize it was making landfall already, until I noticed the diffused looking circulation on shore on radar and satellite. The core of the storm is pretty dry, with most of the precip well off to the east on the right side of the storm. I was watching the bands further east earlier and just assumed the center of circulation was still well off shore.

The core must be in a fairly hostile environment, which, by looking at it, is amazing that it was able to reach hurricane status.

Those really disorganized systems usually get really lopsided usually on the east with precip. Current track is a tad further west than yesterday- now just west of Little Rock. The NAM has very little precip around Memphis. The euro has over 10 inches at Memphis with a never ending southerly component. One of those is wrong.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 13, 2019, 02:57:54 PM
Euro sticks to its guns.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: dwagner88 on July 13, 2019, 04:32:44 PM
As is tradition, interesting weather is happening, so HTX radar is down. I swear it has 100% reliability on clear, sunny days. Getting some heavy tropical downpours right now. Looks like Barry is interacting with the stalled front.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: JHart on July 13, 2019, 06:22:57 PM
A surprisingly strong gust front just passed through Lascassas.  My weather station recorded a maximum wind speed of 30 mph ---one of the highest speeds it has recorded this year.  We are still getting gusts close to 20 mph.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Charles L. on July 14, 2019, 07:12:52 AM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cliftown04 on July 14, 2019, 08:01:49 AM
As learned last Sunday, all it takes is one tropical downpour over your area and you can have flash flood issues. I think this tropical moisture will cause some localized problems. I think to much emphasis is put on the amounts in certain areas which are simply not able to be predicted.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: BRUCE on July 14, 2019, 03:23:04 PM
Tornado warning Madison co...

Post Merge: July 14, 2019, 03:40:29 PM
Rotation right now right over my house... itís in the upper levels right now... ne Madison co
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: mamMATTus on July 14, 2019, 03:44:51 PM
SO glad this system is staying away from Mt Juliet for the most part.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 14, 2019, 03:50:37 PM
Short term models are sucking. None of them that Iím aware of had this heavy band east of me.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cliftown04 on July 14, 2019, 04:04:47 PM
Serious band setting up near Tennessee River. Iím very curious how these totals play out. A few days ago that area was in a bullseye. Will those old predictions pan out?
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Matthew on July 14, 2019, 05:37:44 PM
Trying to predict which way this TD drifts is near impossible.  The heavy band is slowly working towards mid TN.  I would like a thunder storm rainy night to sleep to.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 15, 2019, 08:13:08 AM
From the radar this morning it looks like the whole state of Mississippi is seeing heavy rain.  I'm glad that New Orleans didn't take as much of a hit as some were expecting, but remain very concerned about the flood stage of the Mississippi river in the coming days and weeks.  It will take time for all the rainfall to make its way through the tributaries and into the river, and it won't take much of a rise to radically impact riverside communities that have already seen flooding almost all year.  Let's all hope that the potential for river flooding stays unmet just like the potential impact on New Orleans.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: BRUCE on July 15, 2019, 09:13:53 AM
From the radar this morning it looks like the whole state of Mississippi is seeing heavy rain.  I'm glad that New Orleans didn't take as much of a hit as some were expecting, but remain very concerned about the flood stage of the Mississippi river in the coming days and weeks.  It will take time for all the rainfall to make its way through the tributaries and into the river, and it won't take much of a rise to radically impact riverside communities that have already seen flooding almost all year.  Let's all hope that the potential for river flooding stays unmet just like the potential impact on New Orleans.
major flooding going now in southern. Central Louisiana ...
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Thundersnow on July 15, 2019, 10:49:58 AM
From warning text in LA, north of the Lake Charles area:

ďAt 1011 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. 6 to 12 inches of rain have
  fallen with isolated spots to 17 inches.Ē

Thatís just gross. Itís pretty much rainfall on the order of the 2010 floods here.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: cgauxknox on July 16, 2019, 06:43:30 AM
I'm reading some of the TWC coverage on Barry and they're reporting that an area near Cookeville received 6.09 inches already.  It looks like any flooding issues will be localized for most of Tennessee but as others on the board have been saying the people that do get caught by a heavy or training rain band will really get lots of water in a short period of time.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 16, 2019, 07:44:39 AM
There is an area in Arkansas that received 16 inches of rain last night. It looks like the train is trying to swing into west Tennessee.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: snowdog on July 16, 2019, 08:35:42 AM
I saw one quick shower from Barry, which is fine be me. We need to dry out as I'm tired of mowing my yard every 4 days.
Title: Re: Hurricane Barry
Post by: joemomma on July 16, 2019, 02:37:16 PM
I'm reading some of the TWC coverage on Barry and they're reporting that an area near Cookeville received 6.09 inches already.  It looks like any flooding issues will be localized for most of Tennessee but as others on the board have been saying the people that do get caught by a heavy or training rain band will really get lots of water in a short period of time.

It was absolutely dumping in Cookeville Sunday night.  I haven't seen rain like that in a long time.

On a side note, we were down in NW Florida last week and had minimal impacts from Barry until Thursday/Friday.  We ended up coming back early since Friday was going to be a wash.  It was neat seeing the sea go from fairly calm to down right gnarly in a 24-HR period.  Thursday we saw some of the biggest waves I've ever seen in the Gulf - 5-8' swells.