Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Tropical Spin Zone => Topic started by: bugalou on May 18, 2019, 11:27:14 AM

Title: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 18, 2019, 11:27:14 AM
Hurricane season is nearly here.  Lets go.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 20, 2019, 07:41:13 PM
Subtropical Storm Andrea has formed; the season is officially under way.   https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-05-20-subtropical-storm-andrea-atlantic-bermuda
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 01, 2019, 08:59:23 AM
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-near-normal-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: BRUCE on June 01, 2019, 12:19:18 PM
should be a dull boring season overall in the atlantic basin... the shear will be rocking.... 
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 01, 2019, 12:46:36 PM
The gist of the outlook was near normal as an unfavorable El NiŮo pattern may be offset by above normal sea surface temperatures.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on July 07, 2019, 06:44:28 AM
There is a possibility that the MCV we currently have over Tennessee could move into the Gulf and spawn a tropical or subtropical system during the week.   If anything develops it will probably be minor,  but it isn't every day that we can track tropical weather that launches from our front porch.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: JayCee on July 07, 2019, 09:57:57 AM
I think this is the first time I've seen the NHC highlight a possible tropical threat that comes FROM the mid-south.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2)

Quote
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States is
forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
where a broad low pressure area will likely form in a few days.
Thereafter, upper-level winds support some development of this
system while it meanders near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast
through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: Charles L. on July 07, 2019, 10:41:31 AM
Chasing a Cat 1-Cat 2 hurricane is on my bucket list and one of these days Iíll do it.

So hard with work schedules and the time it takes to travel to the coast
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: Curt on July 07, 2019, 01:51:13 PM
Euro landfalls a hi end tropical storm or low end hurricane into southern LA next weekend with torrential rains up the Ms River basin. Yesterday the remnants were in east TN at this time so itís picking up on a western trend. That could certainly continue west.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 07, 2019, 06:32:38 PM
Ryan Vaughn has an animation of the current Euro run and as Curt said it rides the Mississippi all the way to Paducah. Long way to go

Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on July 08, 2019, 05:55:52 AM
NHC has upped the 5 day storm formation chance to 70 percent.  It was odd; I drove across Knoxville yesterday as the storms were active and it really felt like the kind of storms we see more at the coast than inland.  This system seems to be acting like what it may turn into later.

Quote
000
ABNT20 KNHC 080524
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States
is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a
couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and
a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the
low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For
more information about the rainfall threat, please see products
issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather
Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: JayCee on July 08, 2019, 07:59:32 AM
Storms missed most of my area yesterday.  Lots of thunder; little rain.  So far in July, I've only recorded a tenth of an inch.  Getting very dry. 

Euro keeps shunting the tropical system further west, missing most of Tennessee. 
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on July 08, 2019, 01:18:55 PM
NHC has upped their formation chance through 5 days to 80 percent this afternoon.  They seem increasingly confident that we'll see development of this system.

With all the flooding along the Mississippi already does it necessarily even matter if this turns into a named storm?  It seems to me that just a slow-moving tropical rainstorm could be very serious with all the water that's already standing in many places.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: Nash_LSU on July 09, 2019, 04:24:09 PM
I'm down in Baton Rouge this week visiting family and there are a lot of people starting to get nervous around here. The Mississippi is still really high and surge has been known to come a good ways up the river. It's usually not a problem because the river is typically back down to normal levels by the time hurricane season ramps up. Plaquemines and St. Bernard could see some pretty decent flooding if it comes ashore in central LA.

And who knows if Sewerage and Water Board in Nola have their stuff together for the season. Having worked with them for a few years when I worked on water management in Nola, they probably don't have their stuff together. Same ol' same 'ol for them. Best case scenarios for the pumps is an inch for the first hour and 1/2" for every hour after that, but that's assuming the pumps are at 100%, which I doubt the are.

Hurricane Isaac showed what happens when a slow Cat 1 pumps surge in to Pontchartrain and Maurepas and dumps rain inland. St. James Parish and the Northshore took that one on the chin.

Another issue is that they still have a barge sunk in Bayou Chene to protect Morgan City. When they close off the locks down south of Houma to block surge, any rain that falls north of there has no where to go for a few days. Could become a pretty serious flood threat for those inland a little bit.

Should be an interesting week for me model watching. I've been through four storms down here. I may get to add another notch on the belt this weekend, for better or worse.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on July 22, 2019, 01:23:20 PM
Invest 94L has formed in the Bahamas and has a medium chance of development as it swings northward along the Atlantic coast of Florida.  Right now it looks like it will fizzle out later in the week but it could be a rainy few days along the coast between now and then.

Post Merge: July 23, 2019, 08:52:16 AM
This system is now officially tropical depression 3, but it looks to be a fish storm that will burn out pretty quickly.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: bugalou on July 23, 2019, 11:38:01 AM
Invest 94L has formed in the Bahamas and has a medium chance of development as it swings northward along the Atlantic coast of Florida.  Right now it looks like it will fizzle out later in the week but it could be a rainy few days along the coast between now and then.

Post Merge: July 23, 2019, 08:52:16 AM
This system is now officially tropical depression 3, but it looks to be a fish storm that will burn out pretty quickly.

POOF! She gone!  ::rofl::
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on August 15, 2019, 05:34:29 PM
Anything brewing in the Atlantic?
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on August 15, 2019, 07:23:55 PM
Anything brewing in the Atlantic?

Nope...

Quote
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Rather quiet for mid August.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: StormNine on August 15, 2019, 08:12:55 PM
The Atlantic and Pacific both seem to be quiet so far.  The Atlantic could quickly ramp up when the Sahara ridge weakens and stops throwing dust into the Atlantic. 
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on September 02, 2019, 03:50:51 PM
While Dorian appropriately gets all the attention right now there are also 4 other tropical systems being watched right now,  2 with high chances of development.

https://www.wbir.com/mobile/article/weather/hurricane/tropical-disturbances-gulf/67-3e9b161a-9fae-4852-9acc-7ed33fac20cc?fbclid=IwAR3mQxaC-zdqOPnTSzt1_gwWsg4K28vc7kxEdT-iTWqHO-oEi1fDODidwWo
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: ryandourius on September 02, 2019, 05:18:21 PM
While Dorian appropriately gets all the attention right now there are also 4 other tropical systems being watched right now,  2 with high chances of development.

https://www.wbir.com/mobile/article/weather/hurricane/tropical-disturbances-gulf/67-3e9b161a-9fae-4852-9acc-7ed33fac20cc?fbclid=IwAR3mQxaC-zdqOPnTSzt1_gwWsg4K28vc7kxEdT-iTWqHO-oEi1fDODidwWo

Dorian deserves all the attention. The one coming off of Africa looks interesting.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on September 12, 2019, 10:42:54 AM
Invest 95L, which may be TS Humberto tomorrow, could have an interesting look for FL and the southeast.  Worth keeping an eye on.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: snowdog on September 12, 2019, 04:21:09 PM
Euro says Dorian part deux is coming (possible track, not intensity.)
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on September 12, 2019, 04:33:25 PM
Euro says Dorian part deux is coming (possible track, not intensity.)
Let's hope whatever it is doesn't track over the Bahamas.  With the damage they've suffered there even a day or two of rain could be a terrible burden.  Personally I'd be very happy to see a system track inland and give us some much-needed rain and break up this hot, dry weather.

Post Merge: September 13, 2019, 06:23:40 AM
This morning has almost all of the Bahamas under a tropical storm warning and most of the central Atlantic coast of Florida under a tropical storm watch for what is now Potential Tropical Cyclone 9.  It's still a disorganized system but the track shows it running along the Atlantic coast of Florida through the weekend and then trending northeast either along the Carolina coast or back offshore. 

The Bahamas really don't need the rain, much of the Southeast does; this is not the storm track that anybody would have hoped for.  Maybe things will change.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on September 14, 2019, 11:30:56 AM
We have TS Humberto north of the Bahamas, projected to become a hurricane but make a hard right turn out to sea and not affect the US, other than maybe some incoming swells. It could threaten Bermuda though.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on September 19, 2019, 04:48:37 AM
We've tied a modern record,  six simultaneous named storms across the Atlantic and Pacific.  https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/2019-09-18-six-named-storms-ties-record-atlantic-eastern-pacific.html?__twitter_impression=true

Post Merge: September 19, 2019, 01:22:30 PM
The flooding in Texas from Imelda looks horrible.  This is a case where what didn't look like much until it made landfall has turned out to be a significant disaster for a big region.  It may turn out to be the most damaging tropical system for the U.S. this year.
Title: Re: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on September 26, 2019, 02:17:47 PM
The Atlantic has continued active, but mostly fish storms lately.
Title: North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on September 28, 2019, 10:57:06 PM
In case anyone is interested or following, Lorenzo is a Cat 5 way out in the Atlantic. Itís the most most powerful on record that far east. It could affect the Azores and eventually even Ireland... though it shouldnít be near that strong then.