Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: bugalou on May 18, 2019, 11:18:24 AM

Title: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on May 18, 2019, 11:18:24 AM
It's around the corner, may as well get the thread going.  Here's to hoping we manage 4 or 5 pages here by September.  ::hot:: ::sleeping::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on May 18, 2019, 12:04:33 PM
Per my weather station, at 1 pm it's 86 with a dewpoint of 70 giving a heat index of 91.  Yep, it's summer.

The one disadvantage to living in the woods after a wet spring is: trees full of water make my environment more humid thanks to transpiration.   ::hot::  My dewpoint is significantly higher than Knoxville's, where they remain in the lower 60's.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 21, 2019, 09:52:43 AM
NWS summer forecast.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on May 21, 2019, 10:18:19 AM
NWS summer forecast.

(Attachment Link)
I'll take a relatively low chance of above normal temps for a summer forecast in East TN.  Naturally this comes out as we're forecast to challenge if not break record high temps at the end of this week, but the season isn't defined by a single week.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: gcbama on May 21, 2019, 11:12:25 AM
Here's to hoping for good summer heat for pools/river activities ...but with lower dew points :)

I remember the heat wave year of 2012 . Even though we were hitting 108 to 115 every day for about 8 days here in lewis county, it was a dry desert type of heat...that felt MUCH better than 90 degrees with a 70 plus dew point.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Flash on May 21, 2019, 11:27:43 AM
NWS summer forecast.

(Attachment Link)

That's a lot of blue for them...even on a 0.5 month map.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on May 21, 2019, 05:20:23 PM
NWS summer forecast.

(Attachment Link)

While that's a temperture forecast, it looks very wet to me.  A mean trough just to our west would not only keep the Gulf of Mexico wide open, but would set up a boundary right over us, enhancing lift and rainfall.  Storms would be around almost daily.  Reminds me of 2013.

The same 3 month outlook says little chance of widespread, extreme drought anywhere in the U.S. this year. 

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif)
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mempho on May 21, 2019, 06:10:22 PM
I've had enough summer now-  ready for it to be over.

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Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on May 22, 2019, 09:52:03 AM
NWS summer forecast.

(Attachment Link)

Certainly looks like frequent troughing is going to be a thing and the polar jet may have spurts of above normal strength for summer.  This has been the case for the past few summers.  West TN looks stormy to me in this general setup.  :)
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on May 22, 2019, 09:56:49 AM
Certainly looks like frequent troughing is going to be a thing and the polar jet may have spurts of above normal strength for summer.  This has been the case for the past few summers.  West TN looks stormy to me in this general setup.  :)

I hope so... with the forecast over the next week, we're cutting into that surplus of rainfall we received earlier in the year. I turned on the sprinklers last night, because it's about to be hot and dry for several days.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on May 22, 2019, 04:07:12 PM
I hope so... with the forecast over the next week, we're cutting into that surplus of rainfall we received earlier in the year. I turned on the sprinklers last night, because it's about to be hot and dry for several days.

You don't have to tell me twice.  I absolutely hate long stretches of oppressive heat.  Its awesome occasionally for lake trips and swimming and such, but I need variety in my weather.  One of the main reasons I won't move to Las Vegas despite probably being able to advance in my job faster there.

It gets event worse once the ground drys up and those heat ridges anchor in place and you get weeks without a drop of rain.  ::blowtorch::  At least we have a long way to go there as wet as its been for the past several months.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: gcbama on May 22, 2019, 04:09:10 PM
You don't have to tell me twice.  I absolutely hate long stretches of oppressive heat.  Its awesome occasionally for lake trips and swimming and such, but I need variety in my weather.  One of the main reasons I won't move to Las Vegas despite probably being able to advance in my job faster there.

It gets event worse once the ground drys up and those heat ridges anchor in place and you get weeks without a drop of rain.  ::blowtorch::  At least we have a long way to go there as wet as its been for the past several months.

Thank goodness we had that big surplus back in Feb or we might be in trouble already!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on May 22, 2019, 06:00:42 PM
I hope so... with the forecast over the next week, we're cutting into that surplus of rainfall we received earlier in the year. I turned on the sprinklers last night, because it's about to be hot and dry for several days.

I've learned to appreciate wet patterns that can wear on your nerves with too much rain.  I would rather be too wet than too dry. 

And despite an extremely wet pattern from late last year until now, just one week without rain in this heat will begin to dry out the topsoil.  There may be plenty of moisture deeper in the ground, but most food crops can't touch it, along with the widely planted fescue in most lawns.  Yes, too much rain has it's own problems, but too little water is worse.  Life wouldn't exist here at all without it. 

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 06:06:05 PM
And speaking of too little water, this has got to be the driest 7 day rainfall forecast for TN in the last two years.

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1558566229)
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Crockett on May 22, 2019, 08:00:20 PM
This weather is almost perfect. A few rain showers every few days would be nice, but I've been getting a lot of outside work and hiking accomplished. It was 90 today, but maybe the most comfortable 90 I've ever felt with the low humidity and a constant breeze. I hardly even broke a sweat.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on May 23, 2019, 07:40:21 AM
MRX's morning disco reads more like August than May with fronts dying a slow death north of the Ohio River.

Quote
The ridge flattens over the weekend as a frontal boundary moves down
into the Ohio River Valley and becomes east-to-west oriented. Though
the front remains well off to our north, the flattening of the ridge
may help to spark an isolated shower or storm across our high
terrain and up into SWVA. Sunday night/Monday morning another
impulse rolls through the west-to-northwest flow and into our area.
This will again allow for slight chance/chance POPs across the high
terrain, NETN, and SWVA. Models were previously showing this impulse
coming through on Monday which gave us our best shot of precip of
the extended. However, now it looks like it exits by Monday morning
so most areas stay dry now on Monday. The ridge re-strengthens Monday
afternoon through Tuesday.

Wednesday a shortwave trough and trailing front swing up into the
Great Lakes Region. This weak trailing front approaches our area
giving us another shot of slight chance POPs, though this time
areawide.

Liquid sunshine will be in short supply for most of us through next Wednesday.  Could be worse though.  Check out my sister's location near Columbia, SC:

Quote
Saturday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Calm wind.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 73.
Sunday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 100.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 74.
Memorial Day
Sunny and hot, with a high near 101.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 100.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99.


No thanks; I'll be content with 93 this weekend.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Crockett on May 23, 2019, 10:11:45 AM
I just ran the numbers and was surprised to see that, as of today, 2019 is still the wettest YTD on record here (our records only go back to about 1950 so it's an abbreviated record...but, still, the wettest YTD in the last 70 years, which is impressive in itself). We'll finally succumb to 1975 by the end of next week when the month ends, barring a rogue thunderstorm between now and then. We received 33.44" of rain through May 1975. We're sitting on 33.12" of rain this year.

Still, it's hard to believe that after all that rain we had from September-April, I'm actually breaking out the sprinklers for the lawn this week.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mempho on May 23, 2019, 02:04:51 PM
If this ridge holds for much longer than progged, we will roast and the Midwest will just be endless piles of debris .

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Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on May 28, 2019, 05:27:34 PM
It's obvious the precipitation pendulum has swung solidly in the other direction from wet to dry over the TN valley.  TYS has just recorded their longest stretch of precipitation-free days since November 2017 (10).  Looking at the extended, it's quite possible they could go another 10 days with only scattered storms being forecast with a weakening front around Thursday. 

Quote
While we will see a reprieve from the near record heat, rain
chances remain low across the region through the extended.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Charles L. on May 28, 2019, 06:31:07 PM
Terrible situation unfolding for the suburbs of SW Kansas City. Strong couplet and tornado debris confirmed
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Crockett on May 28, 2019, 07:16:21 PM
It's obvious the precipitation pendulum has swung solidly in the other direction from wet to dry over the TN valley.  TYS has just recorded their longest stretch of precipitation-free days since November 2017 (10).  Looking at the extended, it's quite possible they could go another 10 days with only scattered storms being forecast with a weakening front around Thursday.

It once looked like appreciable rain for most this weekend with widely scattered storms as the ridge breaks down. Now it looks like it's going to be hit-or-miss for all of us for at least the next 7 days and maybe until around June 5-7. Unbelievable about-face by Ma Nature. I broke down and put the sprinklers on my lawn this evening. It's completely parched. My new grass that was so lush a couple of weeks ago is toast, and even my established lawn is turning brown in places that usually only turn brown once every few summers during mild droughts (shallow areas over septic tank, etc.). I can't say I saw this coming a few weeks ago.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on May 29, 2019, 08:48:40 AM
It once looked like appreciable rain for most this weekend with widely scattered storms as the ridge breaks down. Now it looks like it's going to be hit-or-miss for all of us for at least the next 7 days and maybe until around June 5-7. Unbelievable about-face by Ma Nature. I broke down and put the sprinklers on my lawn this evening. It's completely parched. My new grass that was so lush a couple of weeks ago is toast, and even my established lawn is turning brown in places that usually only turn brown once every few summers during mild droughts (shallow areas over septic tank, etc.). I can't say I saw this coming a few weeks ago.

My lawn is also looking less happy.  10 rainless days has seriously drained the top soil of moisture.  A May heat wave isn't helping.

I knew mother nature had a tendency to balance the books, and she's doing so with a vengeance in Tennessee right now.   She's so moody these days. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: WXHD on May 29, 2019, 08:56:41 AM
Iíve had less than 2 inches of rain this month. I donít like running my irrigation if I can help it but, itís definitely needed the last few days.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on May 29, 2019, 09:03:28 AM
Iíve had less than 2 inches of rain this month. I donít like running my irrigation if I can help it but, itís definitely needed the last few days.
yeah... June looking hot n dry... whatís new ... right?
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on May 29, 2019, 09:12:02 AM
Actually we should start to get a NW flow for awhile. Should be fortunate for some. Looks like more normal summer weather to me. Nothing blistering.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on May 30, 2019, 02:08:40 PM
That NW Flow pattern is good news for us but very bad news for areas like Missouri, Arkansas, and Illinois who absolutely don't need the rain.  The flooding would be more isolated to scattered in nature but still not needed for those areas.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on May 30, 2019, 05:15:19 PM
It's been hot, but not the typical late summer heat we see later.  The difference is a stiff wind has been blowing with this heat wave, unlike the stagnant, breeze-less airmass we see in July. However, at the same time, the wind has really dried out the soil.  A good soaking is needed for new gardens trying to get established.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on May 31, 2019, 11:56:11 AM
The fine folks of OK and KS have to love the latest GFS runs that show 9-11 inches of additional rainfall during the first half of June.   

Edit:  Tennessee is shown to receive some decent rainfall (widespread 2-4 inches on model output) as well during this tiemframe.  Remember since it is summer time you will have areas that get locally much less and areas that get locally much more.   
Title: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on May 31, 2019, 04:12:45 PM
Pretty ironic that smoke from the Canadian prairie wildfires is making its down through record flood waters in Arkansas and into the Memphis area.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190531/1fab9e2025e930acc874eaab4be028bf.jpg)
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on May 31, 2019, 04:20:15 PM
Now this is more like it.  5 o'clock and 74 with a good breeze.  I'm finally able to open the windows again. 



Post Merge: June 01, 2019, 07:09:40 AM
The result of record heat and little rain during the last two weeks of May:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TN (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TN)






Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 01, 2019, 09:51:30 PM
CFS V2 supports a Weak El-Nino decaying to a Neutral by winter.  An Neutral ENSO essentially means that ENSO will not play a role in the winter and that it will be about the MJO, PNA, NAO, AO, QBO, etc..
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 02, 2019, 09:57:34 AM
CFS V2 supports a Weak El-Nino decaying to a Neutral by winter.  An Neutral ENSO essentially means that ENSO will not play a role in the winter and that it will be about the MJO, PNA, NAO, AO, QBO, etc..

After last winter's epic fail for TN, even though it seemed all the stars had aligned for something epic, I'm feeling "meh" about that season, overall. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on June 02, 2019, 04:18:31 PM
CFS V2 supports a Weak El-Nino decaying to a Neutral by winter.  An Neutral ENSO essentially means that ENSO will not play a role in the winter and that it will be about the MJO, PNA, NAO, AO, QBO, etc..

The AMO has been solidly negative now for almost 18 months. We might finally be seeing the flip from positive since 1996. Itís a big driver especially for winter. The last negative AMO was the period from about 1960 to the mid 90ís.

QBO is about as positive as can be as of the last reading in April. Iím guessing itís a slow drop from there although can it go negative before winter is anyoneís guess.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mempho on June 03, 2019, 05:05:47 AM
After last winter's epic fail for TN, even though it seemed all the stars had aligned for something epic, I'm feeling "meh" about that season, overall.
At least it's a season that's not characterized by swamp heat.



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Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 03, 2019, 07:54:04 AM
At least it's a season that's not characterized by swamp heat.



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Yep, there is that.   8)

After a dry start, it looks like some wet times are ahead later this week for TN.  No complaints here.  I've only seen .35" of rain over the last two weeks, so a good soaking would be welcome. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on June 03, 2019, 12:26:22 PM
CFS V2 supports a Weak El-Nino decaying to a Neutral by winter.  An Neutral ENSO essentially means that ENSO will not play a role in the winter and that it will be about the MJO, PNA, NAO, AO, QBO, etc..
actually the last couple weeks the El NiŮo has gotten bit stronger for what I have been gathering ...  see how it goes from here ....
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 04, 2019, 06:08:35 AM
It appears our current dry snap will be over in a snap after this week.  However, Arkansas doesn't need a drop of what's coming.


(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1559646330)

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 04, 2019, 05:24:41 PM
Good grief. What a forecast.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 04, 2019, 09:05:41 PM
With Precipitable Water values of 2 inches and the fact that it is a cut-off low (aka a low that will form storms that are in no hurry) it is hard for me not to think that someone is probably going to see significant flash flooding out of this thing during sometime in the Friday-Sunday timeframe. 

Post Merge: June 05, 2019, 08:46:45 AM
One thing that could ease any flooding concerns is the excess moisture along the Gulf Coast.  This could limit our heavy rain threat here back home.  We will still have a soggy weekend but the flooding rains may be restricted to within 50-100 miles from the Gulf Coast. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 05, 2019, 12:07:20 PM
That cluster along the TX/LA Gulf Coast looks like a moisture robber, but I suspect we'll still see some new development this afternoon.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on June 05, 2019, 01:09:21 PM
Slug of deep moisture along gulf appears be heading north ever so slowly ... could be indicator of our weather actually ... things arenít going move very fast ... so flooding could be concern later weekend especially low laying areas ....
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 05, 2019, 02:31:55 PM
Had several rounds of brief heavy rain here today, but with little fanfare.  No observable lightning or strong winds.  Pretty tame weather that added up to about .25-.75" of rain around the area.  Glad to see the garden get a good watering, but some thunder would be welcome.  We get Plain Jane rain all winter.  Summer rain is supposed to have a few sparks to go along with it to make it more interesting.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 05, 2019, 02:55:35 PM
Here is a crazy fact. The Mississippi River has been above flood stage here all but 5 days this year.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Crockett on June 05, 2019, 07:03:37 PM
Had several rounds of brief heavy rain here today, but with little fanfare.  No observable lightning or strong winds.  Pretty tame weather that added up to about .25-.75" of rain around the area.  Glad to see the garden get a good watering, but some thunder would be welcome.  We get Plain Jane rain all winter.  Summer rain is supposed to have a few sparks to go along with it to make it more interesting.   

Lightning struck a transformer right outside my office window this morning. There were certainly some "sparks." I just about soiled myself...I thought the lil' Korean man had launched his missile at Oak Ridge and missed by about 40 miles.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on June 05, 2019, 08:01:08 PM
I took the trash out tonight and it's just beautiful.   The air is fresh and just a bit cool with a nice breeze.   There are some real benefits to the start of this wet spell.  Now all I need is just enough dry weather on Friday to see the Smokes play.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 05, 2019, 09:28:25 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on June 05, 2019, 10:07:34 PM
(Attachment Link)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190606/a55e2541243afd62df06d11bc886361a.jpg)

Euro seasonal matches well and that BN temp scheme is AN on precip. Euro seasonal continues the El NiŮo into early winter with another modoki look. Surely we canít screw that up twice.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mempho on June 06, 2019, 05:01:26 AM
(Attachment Link)
So beautifuuuullll!!!

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Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on June 06, 2019, 06:15:24 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190606/a55e2541243afd62df06d11bc886361a.jpg)

Euro seasonal matches well and that BN temp scheme is AN on precip. Euro seasonal continues the El NiŮo into early winter with another modoki look. Surely we canít screw that up twice.
trust me. It will be easy to screw it up... cause weíre getting pattern we need in June... lol when December January arrive... be a complete reversal ... watch lol
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 06, 2019, 06:18:26 AM
So beautifuuuullll!!!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

The question is- will it be a rain-chasing snow scenario or suppression city? I think our best chance is when the pattern relaxes, and we get a disturbance from the Southwest that phases with energy in the northern stream with cold air in place, or an overrunning event, perhaps a southern slider

Oh wait- never mind.

Enjoy any breaks we get!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 06, 2019, 10:56:04 AM
Current MRX radar shows why flash flooding is a possibility this weekend.  Pockets of heavy rain have just developed, and are moving very slowly and/or moving over the same area.   And it's just Thursday, and we have 4-5 more days of this. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: dwagner88 on June 06, 2019, 11:19:49 AM
Current MRX radar shows why flash flooding is a possibility this weekend.  Pockets of heavy rain have just developed, and are moving very slowly and/or moving over the same area.   And it's just Thursday, and we have 4-5 more days of this.
I think WNC will be the target area for flooding over the weekend. We may see spots of flash flooding on this side of the mountains, but we will also be getting downsloped all weekend. I'm thinking that gulf coast convection is going to further limit the rain amounts here. I'm guessing 2-3" average with isolated 5-6" for those stuck under heavier cells.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 06, 2019, 07:21:59 PM
Most of the flash flood warnings are actually in Kentucky this evening. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: WXHD on June 06, 2019, 08:13:23 PM
Happy to report that weíre up to .13Ē for the day and month!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JHart on June 06, 2019, 08:38:26 PM
Happy to report that weíre up to .13Ē for the day and month!

Congratulations.  That is 0.10" more than we have gotten up here.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mempho on June 07, 2019, 04:08:31 AM
trust me. It will be easy to screw it up... cause weíre getting pattern we need in June... lol when December January arrive... be a complete reversal ... watch lol
I'm just thrilled to not have relentless heat.

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Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on June 07, 2019, 06:46:01 AM
Unofficial totals overnight of 8 to 9 inches in of rain in Germantown and Collierville areas under that relentless band overnight. Nonconnah Creek in SE Shelby hit a record 27.5 feet.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 07, 2019, 07:56:09 AM
Unofficial totals overnight of 8 to 9 inches in of rain in Germantown and Collierville areas under that relentless band overnight. Nonconnah Creek in SE Shelby hit a record 27.5 feet.

Friends' apartment was flooded... somewhere in that area.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 07, 2019, 08:08:47 AM
Moderate rain falling this morning under a dark sky.  Rain doesn't look to last long here, as most of it is retreating northward, currently.

Surrounding radars aren't impressive this morning, with most of the steady, heavier rain falling to our north in KY.  The exception is parts of middle TN and northern Plateau, where there's some decent returns and pockets of heavy rain.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Charles L. on June 07, 2019, 08:13:30 AM
Moderate rain falling this morning under a dark sky.  Rain doesn't look to last long here, as most of it is retreating northward, currently.

Surrounding radars aren't impressive this morning, with most of the steady, heavier rain falling to our north in KY.  The exception is parts of middle TN and northern Plateau, where there's some decent returns and pockets of heavy rain.

I need it out of Nashville before Vandyís Super Regional game at 5 pm. My hope in that occurring isnít high though.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 07, 2019, 10:19:28 AM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
922 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Davidson County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 1230 PM CDT.

* At 922 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to
  begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Nashville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Hermitage,
  Bellevue, Antioch, Berry Hill, Beaman Park, Bells Bend, Percy
  Priest Lake and Whites Creek.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 192 and 221.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 75 and 93.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 38 and 61.

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on June 07, 2019, 01:20:28 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1137052396360798208

In Germantown this morning

Pretty hefty rainfall amounts from overnight:
Memphis Intl 3.76
NWS Memphis 4.52
Olive Branch MS 8.70
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mempho on June 07, 2019, 07:40:00 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1137052396360798208

In Germantown this morning

Pretty hefty rainfall amounts from overnight:
Memphis Intl 3.76
NWS Memphis 4.52
Olive Branch MS 8.70
That's my friend's house...

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Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Crockett on June 07, 2019, 08:19:25 PM
Faithway Assembly Church, across from LaFollette Middle School in Campbell County...
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: dwagner88 on June 07, 2019, 08:23:32 PM
Faithway Assembly Church, across from LaFollette Middle School in Campbell County...
Was just about to post about that area. Looks like 6-8Ē has fallen. Similar situation to Germantown last night but in very mountainous terrain. Overall the coverage has been very spotty though. Iím only just now crossing 1Ē for the whole event.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Crockett on June 07, 2019, 08:26:33 PM
Was just about to post about that area. Looks like 6-8Ē has fallen. Similar situation to Germantown last night but in very mountainous terrain. Overall the coverage has been very spotty though. Iím only just now crossing 1Ē for the whole event.

Yes, we're just across the mountain and while it's rained off and on all day, heavy at times, we've probably had only 1-1.5" today.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on June 07, 2019, 09:36:35 PM
Well,  we got to the top of the 7th at the Smokes game before the rain got us and cancelled the game.   They were losing badly anyway,  but it was a shame to miss the after game fireworks and concert.   

From the local news it looks like Campbell County has been hit pretty hard tonight. I hope everybody comes through this system IK.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 08, 2019, 08:04:39 AM
Only .25 at my house. It does not look like we are getting much more. On another note 70s for highs all week.  ::applause::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 08, 2019, 08:55:01 AM
We've had about a half inch total with this system so far.  Thanks to a downsloping flow, we might be lucky to get 1-1.5" before it's done.

But wow--summer is taking a vacation day of it's own late week.

Quote
As this second system closes off across the Great Lakes, our winds
aloft will become westerly and drying will resume, except for light
precip mainly along and north of I-40 Thursday. This Great Lakes
system, however, will usher in some unseasonably cool temperatures
for mid June, with min temps Friday morning in the low to mid 50s
across the Valley, and sunny highs in the 70s to near 80 on Friday
afternoon with lower humidity
! Warmer temperatures and muggy air
will return for the weekend.

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on June 08, 2019, 10:04:58 AM
Itís reported now that Germantown received 10 inches of rain in 3 hours night before last. Nearly 200 homes if not more flooded during that time. Despite insurance coverage and also keep in mind Germantown probably has one if the highest per capita incomes in the state- lots of this damage wont be covered due to lack of flood insurance. There are lots of complaints from residents about the drainage system. Iím not sure any municipality maybe outside New Orleans can handle that amount so quick.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: dwagner88 on June 08, 2019, 11:43:51 AM
We've had about a half inch total with this system so far.  Thanks to a downsloping flow, we might be lucky to get 1-1.5" before it's done.

But wow--summer is taking a vacation day of it's own late week.
GFS gets KCHA down to 47 Friday morning. That would almost certainly be a record.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mempho on June 08, 2019, 05:50:02 PM
GFS gets KCHA down to 47 Friday morning. That would almost certainly be a record.
Next week looks to be the most insanely good week I've ever seen for summer.  I've never seen more than about 2 to 3 days that goodm

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Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Flash on June 09, 2019, 08:45:04 AM
I know we're only 8/9 days into the month, but I find it fascinating BNA is +3.9 on the month so far. Gun to head, I would have assumed near +0-0.5 the way highs have been lately. My initial thought is we're not reaching average lows with the capped radiation/muggy air mass keeping temp differentials at a minimum. Plus, I have recently wondered how much a booming Nashville metro is contributing to the overall UHI effect...but that's another convo for another day.

At any rate, while I know CPC has its issues on their temp probability seasonal forecasts, taken face value, I'm diggin' the 1.5 month outlook...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2)
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 09, 2019, 05:58:09 PM
Probably not going to be a fun Monday in Mt Juliet tomorrow [attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 10, 2019, 07:05:02 AM
Downsloping flow kept most of the foothills east of Knoxville drier this weekend.  I recorded less than an inch (.84) from Thursday until this morning in periods of light rain.  Hopefully, we'll see some more today over this way. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Clay on June 10, 2019, 10:52:38 AM
Gonna be some chilly hippies on the Farm in Manchester. 51 for the low Thursday Night.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Beth on June 10, 2019, 11:13:44 AM
I totally do not understand why they do not close Cummings Falls State park when there is rain in their area.  Two people died there last year with multiple people rescued. And same yesterday. And a two year old lost his life and they had to save 64 people.  They know that gorge floods when there is rain.  Just very sad! 😖😢
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: WXHD on June 10, 2019, 02:56:55 PM
Gonna be some chilly hippies on the Farm in Manchester. 51 for the low Thursday Night.  ::cold::

You canít buy weather like that. Perfect weather for festival goers.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 11, 2019, 05:44:45 AM
Woke up to a perfect 57 this morning.  A breath of fresh air for mid-June, and it doesn't happen too often--especially considering this cool snap will stick around for an entire week.  Thursday night looks glorious with upper 40's for many of us. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cbrentv318 on June 11, 2019, 09:31:12 PM
Gonna be some chilly hippies on the Farm in Manchester. 51 for the low Thursday Night.  ::cold::
Any update on the storms for Bonnaroo tomorrow and timeframe?


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Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 12, 2019, 12:15:07 PM
The GFS just received a major upgrade.

[url] https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-us-global-weather-forecast-model [\url]
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 13, 2019, 09:13:58 AM
The GFS just received a major upgrade.

[url] https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-us-global-weather-forecast-model [\url]

FV3 was abysmal last winter.  Let's hope this upgrade works.

In the meantime, it will feel more like a mid-October day today.  Temperatures will struggle to get to 70 with gusty winds to 30 mph.  That will almost put a chill in the air for cold-natured people, but I'm lovin' it.   ::guitar::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on June 13, 2019, 10:51:44 AM
In the meantime, it will feel more like a mid-October day today.  Temperatures will struggle to get to 70 with gusty winds to 30 mph.  That will almost put a chill in the air for cold-natured people, but I'm lovin' it.   ::guitar::
I'm having odd cravings for firepits, college football, and pumpkin spice.  After a nice, long spring this preview of fall is quite a treat.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: gcbama on June 13, 2019, 11:37:29 AM
I'm having odd cravings for firepits, college football, and pumpkin spice.  After a nice, long spring this preview of fall is quite a treat.

I said that to my dad the other day....that it felt like it was time for the 3rd Saturday in October :) roll tide btw lol
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Flash on June 13, 2019, 05:29:48 PM
My wife is the best, ya'll. Can't even. Man...she's good!

https://youtu.be/Nbvys-XwNrg (https://youtu.be/Nbvys-XwNrg)
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: NismoWx on June 13, 2019, 07:27:34 PM
My wife is the best, ya'll. Can't even. Man...she's good!

https://youtu.be/Nbvys-XwNrg (https://youtu.be/Nbvys-XwNrg)
James Spann is the man!!!!!! What a guy.. Congrats on #3, Flash!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 13, 2019, 07:55:20 PM
My wife is the best, ya'll. Can't even. Man...she's good!

https://youtu.be/Nbvys-XwNrg (https://youtu.be/Nbvys-XwNrg)

That's pretty awesome man congrats!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 14, 2019, 07:47:18 AM
Touched 49F this morning.  Pretty awesome for June 14th!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Coach B on June 14, 2019, 01:59:36 PM
Had to turn the heat on in the truck on the way into town this morning. Don't think the AC in the house has been on since Sunday night.  Five full days with no AC in June:  ::applause::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: gcbama on June 14, 2019, 03:04:39 PM
Had to turn the heat on in the truck on the way into town this morning. Don't think the AC in the house has been on since Sunday night.  Five full days with no AC in June:  ::applause::

I must be way to hot natured lol....it has been hot in the house to me...A/C on every day lol.
But then again I cannot open windows much due to allergies so that makes it hotter in the house
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Charles L. on June 14, 2019, 05:55:59 PM
I must be way to hot natured lol....it has been hot in the house to me...A/C on every day lol.
But then again I cannot open windows much due to allergies so that makes it hotter in the house

Same. My allergies have been kicking my tail this year.

Another reason why I love winter
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: dwagner88 on June 14, 2019, 09:15:02 PM
Weather station says I bottomed out at 48. Ducktown was 45 this morning. If only I could have willed myself out of bed early enough to go for a run. I recently got a promotion, and the added time and stress has been cramping my running schedules bit. Taking a well-earned vacation to Isle of Palms SC next week.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 15, 2019, 07:27:41 AM
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1560601969

Rain service, rain service, who ordered rain service.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cliftown04 on June 15, 2019, 08:56:39 AM
Yes please bring the rain. We received less than an inch last week here at my location!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: rocket41 on June 15, 2019, 09:39:18 PM
My family and I will be on the fourth floor of a hotel in Oklahoma City tonight. Weíve been upgraded to a moderate risk for the MCS headed this way. How concerned should I be?
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 16, 2019, 11:00:21 AM
My family and I will be on the fourth floor of a hotel in Oklahoma City tonight. Weíve been upgraded to a moderate risk for the MCS headed this way. How concerned should I be?

How did you all fare?  I know there was a petty nasty line of storms moving through.

Typically skyscrapers and big business buildings/big hotels  can withstand any widespread damaging wind and even most tornadoes.  Not sure about EF3+ (there have been hotel collapses in those). 

As far as skyscrapers the biggest threat is debris from the windows breaking.  That is what happened during the Atlanta Tornado of 2008 which was an EF-2.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: rocket41 on June 16, 2019, 06:11:58 PM
We are good. Local meteorologists were on top of it. Saw some very impressive lightning and 50-60 mph winds. Things escalated throughout the day going from slight to moderate risk and when I checked the radar that line looked nasty.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 17, 2019, 08:27:27 AM
Woke up in the middle of the night to lightning and thunder. I looked on radar and saw an isolated popup cell just to my west (it wasn't something existing that moved into the area... it fired up from nothing).

When convection pops up in the middle of the night, you know there's some decent instability in place. Looks like a stormy week ahead.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JHart on June 17, 2019, 09:10:41 AM
WKRN's 10:00 PM  "Future-Tracker" run did a surprisingly good job modeling last night's convection, at least in my neighborhood.  It showed storms popping around 3:00 AM along I-65.  Davis wasn't buying it, but at 2:45 AM --- boom, I got 0.63 inches of verification.

Even blind squirrels find sometimes find a nut.

Post Merge: June 17, 2019, 09:13:51 AM
Woke up in the middle of the night to lightning and thunder.

...funny how the night moves.  ::guitar::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Brad on June 17, 2019, 12:10:41 PM
Woke up in the middle of the night to lightning and thunder. I looked on radar and saw an isolated popup cell just to my west (it wasn't something existing that moved into the area... it fired up from nothing).

When convection pops up in the middle of the night, you know there's some decent instability in place. Looks like a stormy week ahead.

Yes this thing popped up out of nowhere directly over my neighborhood (Crieve Hall in South Nashville). It was an angry little cell with some noisy thunder, heavy rain and gusty winds - Iíd guess 45mph which knocked power out for several minutes.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on June 17, 2019, 01:46:48 PM
We're getting a little bit of thunder and some brief downpours with pop-up storms this afternoon.  Somebody posted earlier about things being pretty unstable and that seems to be the case right now.  It actually feels like a more traditional summer with some heat and afternoon storms.  It's been a few years since we got to enjoy one like this.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 17, 2019, 05:43:38 PM
The homeplace was on the southeast edge of some intense convection this afternoon.  I received a half inch, while just to my northwest, well over an inch fell.  Conversely, just to my southeast it was mostly dry.  Typical summertime storms, and they had plenty of lightning to go with the heavy rain.

In the meantime, Cocke and Jefferson Counties reported wind damage and power outages caused by wind gusts approaching 60 mph.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: WXHD on June 17, 2019, 07:34:51 PM
Yes this thing popped up out of nowhere directly over my neighborhood (Crieve Hall in South Nashville). It was an angry little cell with some noisy thunder, heavy rain and gusty winds - Iíd guess 45mph which knocked power out for several minutes.

My business is right there on Trousdale. Got there this morning and the proof of rain was clear. I live in Bellevue, we canít buy rain over here. The number of times that Iíve opened the doors in the morning to see that itís rained there and not here is comical. Thereís a voodoo doll, or scooter, buried under I-65.

To be fair, we are at .05Ē for the day. So, maybe my property taxes are getting me something.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Susan on June 17, 2019, 08:47:25 PM
Was not expecting a tornado tonight. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: NismoWx on June 17, 2019, 08:53:30 PM
Was not expecting a tornado tonight.
I don't think any of us were. That thing blew up out of nowhere, it seemed. Then spun out just as fast as it started.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: andyhb on June 17, 2019, 11:54:02 PM
Wednesday could be very interesting in the Mid South. Models have converged on an unseasonably strong shortwave with a 500 mb max in excess of 55 kts moving across the area with seasonably high instability and good low level lapse rates. Would not be shocked to see a regional severe weather event across the area with that. Not your typical late June pattern, that's for certain.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 18, 2019, 07:00:54 AM
Iím happy to save on watering the grass for a week.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Flash on June 18, 2019, 07:19:25 AM
Wednesday could be very interesting in the Mid South. Models have converged on an unseasonably strong shortwave with a 500 mb max in excess of 55 kts moving across the area with seasonably high instability and good low level lapse rates. Would not be shocked to see a regional severe weather event across the area with that. Not your typical late June pattern, that's for certain.

I think my morning may have been made. Anytime I pop in and see an Andy post, I get giddy.

  ::twister::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 18, 2019, 12:41:13 PM
This has been the most interesting June is recent memory weather wise.  Let hope the action continues.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on June 18, 2019, 01:48:38 PM
I think my morning may have been made. Anytime I pop in and see an Andy post, I get giddy.

  ::twister::
interesting shortwave for this time year no doubt... but with the front every thing pretty much linear to me... could see a bow shape wind damage threat though ...  with the wind fields showing on euro today
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 18, 2019, 03:30:11 PM
I expected the Slight to be expanded further south and east and thatís exactly what happened.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 18, 2019, 04:01:32 PM
MCS formation, it is what makes summer time tracking kinda fun but also very tricky for forecasters.

Anything from a nothingburger to a decent severe weather threat with potentially widespread damaging winds and even a few tornadoes is on the table tomorrow.   

It all depends on how the expected MCS that forms tonight in KS/OK/SW MO/W ARK behaves as it moves eastward tomorrow morning.  It also will depend on where outflow boundaries set up as well.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Greyhound on June 19, 2019, 08:41:27 AM
This has been the most interesting June is recent memory weather wise.  Let hope the action continues.

NO!!!  For the past three weeks I've been trying to find a few consistent dry days so I can stain and paint my deck/railing.  I need a few days for it to dry out, then a few days after the work is done for everything to dry.  After that is done.....Party On!!!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Crockett on June 19, 2019, 09:15:57 AM
NO!!!  For the past three weeks I've been trying to find a few consistent dry days so I can stain and paint my deck/railing.  I need a few days for it to dry out, then a few days after the work is done for everything to dry.  After that is done.....Party On!!!

I'll second your motion. This weather pattern is ridiculous! Only the misguided ones who like to spend their summer sitting by the window and watching it rain are fond of  this pattern.  >:D
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on June 19, 2019, 09:36:24 AM
One thing about storms rolling through in the afternoons is that you sometimes get really beautiful sunsets like this one last night.  While I couldn't capture the added magic of very active fireflies the picture says a lot about the beautiful moments we're catching in between storms.
[attach=1]
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 19, 2019, 10:08:52 AM
I'll second your motion. This weather pattern is ridiculous! Only the misguided ones who like to spend their summer sitting by the window and watching it rain are fond of  this pattern.  >:D

It's not just that though.  Frequent rain in the summer keeps it cooler, even on days it doesn't rain due to ground moisture.  Once you lose the ground moisture the death ridge starts setting up and before you know it its 3 weeks in of no rain and 100+ degree temps.   This is why I never complain when it storms in the summer.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 19, 2019, 10:19:48 AM
It's not just that though.  Frequent rain in the summer keeps it cooler, even on days it doesn't rain due to ground moisture.  Once you lose the ground moisture the death ridge starts setting up and before you know it its 3 weeks in of no rain and 100+ degree temps.   This is why I never complain when it storms in the summer.

Crockett loves for the rest of the state to bake near 100 so he can have his 90-degree day on the upper Plateau.  >:D  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 19, 2019, 01:40:24 PM
Crockett loves for the rest of the state to bake near 100 so he can have his 90-degree day on the upper Plateau.  >:D  ::blowtorch::

 ::rofl:: 
Well I guess getting gypped all the time with winter weather there makes him hate the rest of us a little bit.  :P
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: TNHunter on June 19, 2019, 06:56:00 PM
I'll second your motion. This weather pattern is ridiculous! Only the misguided ones who like to spend their summer sitting by the window and watching it rain are fond of  this pattern.  >:D

Glad someone is getting rain. We havenít had much of any rain in 3-4 weeks now at my house in the Dyersburg area. Swamp is already 18 inches low and so are my local ponds. We need a good 2-4 inches bad.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Clay on June 19, 2019, 07:44:03 PM
Marble sized hail and damaging winds near Lenox Village.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 19, 2019, 08:17:57 PM
Glad someone is getting rain. We havenít had much of any rain in 3-4 weeks now at my house in the Dyersburg area. Swamp is already 18 inches low and so are my local ponds. We need a good 2-4 inches bad.

Even in a wet pattern, there are still some areas that get much less in the summer season.  I've only had about 2.3" here IMBY.  That's certainly not excessive for June.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 19, 2019, 08:32:20 PM
Glad someone is getting rain. We havenít had much of any rain in 3-4 weeks now at my house in the Dyersburg area. Swamp is already 18 inches low and so are my local ponds. We need a good 2-4 inches bad.
Where are you located. I live in town. I had 4.25 in May and 1.5 so far in June. This month sort of reminds me of winter. We have been modeled to get about 15 inches the last two weeks.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 19, 2019, 08:47:31 PM
Pretty much missed anything significant in Hermitage. Disappointing, but that also means Mt Juliet was spared which is great for me considering I know a lot of construction sites could use a major break from heavy rain.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 19, 2019, 09:15:14 PM
Major wind coming into Little Rock with a bowing segment.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: TNHunter on June 19, 2019, 09:42:22 PM
Where are you located. I live in town. I had 4.25 in May and 1.5 so far in June. This month sort of reminds me of winter. We have been modeled to get about 15 inches the last two weeks.

Live near the Middle School. I have about an inch for June. Models have definitely way over done rain totals lately for sure.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 19, 2019, 09:53:43 PM
I heard on WSMV earlier tonight that a 2nd wave was supposed to be make it into the area overnight from Arkansas but I'm just not seeing that happening.
Title: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on June 19, 2019, 09:55:36 PM
Major wind coming into Little Rock with a bowing segment.


(Attachment Link)

Huge wind storm moving just east of Little Rock. If it can hold together should cross into the Memphis metro in the next couple of hours. Plenty of cape available.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190620/c3ef686b10ebcafde2d240998ff69245.jpg)
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: NashRugger on June 19, 2019, 10:31:40 PM
Seems like north Murfreesboro took a good smack from line. My parents subdivision alone has numerous uprooted and snapped trees, including a mature sycamore in their yard.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Crockett on June 19, 2019, 10:34:27 PM
Crockett loves for the rest of the state to bake near 100 so he can have his 90-degree day on the upper Plateau.  >:D  ::blowtorch::

It's summer! It's supposed to be hot! Y'all gripe too much.  ;D

I'll gladly take a little excessive heat if it means plenty of dry weather for outdoors activities that can't be enjoyed during the cooler months. So far, we haven't had many rain-free days in June. That doesn't mean it's rained all day every day by any means...but the threat of rain has been there on an almost daily basis.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 20, 2019, 05:12:19 AM
Just periods of rain overnight here, but with little fanfare.  Little wind or lightning, or at least not enough to wake me up.

Now, Friday and Saturday night might be a different story.

Quote
For Friday night into Saturday, models agree with a vigorous MCS
developing over the mid-west late Friday and Friday night, then
moving southeast toward the southern Appalachians/east Tennessee
valley. This MCS and associated MCV will be feed by southwesterly
boundary layer jet enhancing isentropic lift. Timing of this MCS
into the region is different between models, however, they agree
with a moderately unstable airmass as mid-level lapse rates steepen.
Strong gusty winds, potentially damaging, hail up to quarter size
and torrential rainfall are possible.

A break in the convection is likely in the wake of the storms
Saturday.

For Saturday night and Sunday, the GFS and ECMWF suggest another MCS
will develop over the Ohio valley and ridge southeast into the
region. Models do not show as steep mid-level lapse rates reducing
the CAPES some, but still heavy rainfall and strong/gusty winds are
anticipated.

At least it's the weekend, so loss of sleep isn't a big deal.  ::sleeping::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on June 20, 2019, 05:15:29 AM
It's an early start with active warnings in southeast Tennessee. Unusual to see at this hour; we'll see if this is a preview of the day to come.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 20, 2019, 05:59:10 AM
It's an early start with active warnings in southeast Tennessee. Unusual to see at this hour; we'll see if this is a preview of the day to come.

Looks like that line may hold together long enough to give Knoxville and surrounding areas some rough weather this morning, although the last few frames of the MRX radar loop shows a definite weakening trend.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on June 20, 2019, 06:21:35 AM
Some fairly good size trees Down in south Madison county per local news this morning ... with the complex that came through after midnite...
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on June 20, 2019, 06:32:28 AM
Looks like that line may hold together long enough to give Knoxville and surrounding areas some rough weather this morning, although the last few frames of the MRX radar loop shows a definite weakening trend.
We're under a warning of our own now and the heavy rain just started.  This may make for a tough commute for some - stay safe out there everybody!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: NismoWx on June 20, 2019, 07:14:07 AM
Seems like north Murfreesboro took a good smack from line. My parents subdivision alone has numerous uprooted and snapped trees, including a mature sycamore in their yard.


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I'm in Walter Hill and can verify. Several trees down in my neighborhood from the first round. We had sustained 60mph winds for a good 20 minutes last night.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 20, 2019, 08:33:20 AM
Remember the Green Hills area this morning in the wake of storms that toppled potted plants last night.

#wewillrebuild
#wearegreenhills

lol


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 20, 2019, 09:02:21 AM
Storms weakened once again before hitting my area.  Mainly just some gusty showers that were dissipating.  We're getting just enough rain this week to keep it from getting dry, but nothing excessive compared to areas to my northwest, especially southeast KY. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 20, 2019, 11:08:46 AM
We had some pretty decent wind here - maybe 45 mph gust - but nothing crazy.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 20, 2019, 04:25:08 PM
Quote
Tornado Warning
TNC093-202145-
/O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0003.190620T2119Z-190620T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Morristown TN
519 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Knox County in east Tennessee...

* Until 545 PM EDT.

* At 518 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 7 miles north of Knoxville, moving southeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  northeastern Knox County, including the following locations...
  Maloneyville, House Mountain State Park, Mascot, Halls, Kimberlin
  Heights and Seymour.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on June 20, 2019, 04:44:06 PM
Sunny and windy in West Knoxville but some loud thunder surprised me.   Then the TOR came out. We seem to be seeing some of the same discrete severe cell formation that happened with this front over the past couple of days. We're definitely getting enough interesting things to watch with,  thankfully,  very little damage in Tennessee so far.   Let's hope it stays that way.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 20, 2019, 04:57:17 PM
Memphis airport reported 67 mph with last nights storm. That thing had a punch for a long ways.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: gcbama on June 20, 2019, 08:19:59 PM
I am thinking a possible derecho / bow echo event tomorrow
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 20, 2019, 09:33:04 PM
Lost power earlier this evening thanks to that TOR warned storm that was in Knox moving southeast over my area.  Rain and wind was intense, along with some very vivid lightning, but thankfully no tornado.  But taking a close look at the radar, it was obvious the storm had the signature of rotation. It was quite the exciting evening after work.  I didn't get to eat supper until 8:00.  That's very late for me.

Post Merge: June 21, 2019, 07:23:03 AM
The Sun reaches the Tropic of Cancer today and ends it's northward journey.  Happy Summer Solstice. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Greyhound on June 21, 2019, 07:45:23 AM
This is a pic of the storm over East Knoxville yesterday.  View is on Callahan Rd looking towards the storm that came over Dry Gap Pike. ó at Rusty Wallace Honda.  Not my picture.....saw it on Stalkbook.

Also, here's a time lapse video of the storm moving through and showing some rotation:  https://www.facebook.com/drinnon.womble/videos/o.77637487695/10214711304880768/?type=2&theater
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 21, 2019, 08:47:04 AM
Lost power earlier this evening thanks to that TOR warned storm that was in Knox moving southeast over my area.  Rain and wind was intense, along with some very vivid lightning, but thankfully no tornado.  But taking a close look at the radar, it was obvious the storm had the signature of rotation. It was quite the exciting evening after work.  I didn't get to eat supper until 8:00.  That's very late for me.

Post Merge: June 21, 2019, 07:23:03 AM
The Sun reaches the Tropic of Cancer today and ends it's northward journey.  Happy Summer Solstice. 

So, today begins our transition to winter.  ;)  ::cold:: ::snowman::

Post Merge: June 21, 2019, 08:53:42 AM
How would you like this?

(there's a heat advisory in effect for that area)

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on June 21, 2019, 08:55:33 AM
So, today begins our transition to winter.  ;)  ::cold:: ::snowman::

Post Merge: June 21, 2019, 08:53:42 AM
How would you like this?

(there's a heat advisory in effect for that area)

(Attachment Link)
yeah... longest daylight day of the season... daylight gets shorter from here out... ;D
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Flash on June 21, 2019, 09:00:46 AM
So, today begins our transition to winter.  ;)  ::cold:: ::snowman::

Post Merge: June 21, 2019, 08:53:42 AM
How would you like this?

(there's a heat advisory in effect for that area)

(Attachment Link)

After last year's 'winter,' I'm relieved to be on the other side. Honestly, I haven't felt this good about summer in a while. Still need a couple months before I open myself up to inevitable disappointment.  ;)
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 21, 2019, 09:12:31 AM
This is a pic of the storm over East Knoxville yesterday.  View is on Callahan Rd looking towards the storm that came over Dry Gap Pike. ó at Rusty Wallace Honda.  Not my picture.....saw it on Stalkbook.

Also, here's a time lapse video of the storm moving through and showing some rotation:  https://www.facebook.com/drinnon.womble/videos/o.77637487695/10214711304880768/?type=2&theater

A true super cell in east TN.  Doesn't happen too often, but this was one of them.

I'm amazed at the amount/intensity of lightning in these types of storm.  Long before the sky even grew dark at my house, and while the storm was in northwest Knox County, I was hearing loud growls of thunder with the Sun still out.  It was almost a continuous rumbling.  I knew it was going to pack a punch from that alone. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: gcbama on June 21, 2019, 09:13:51 AM
so does anybody think the complex in Missouri will be officially labeled a derecho event....so far it has been a massive bow, ongoing for quite a few hours and shows no signs of stopping
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on June 21, 2019, 09:52:20 AM
so does anybody think the complex in Missouri will be officially labeled a derecho event....so far it has been a massive bow, ongoing for quite a few hours and shows no signs of stopping
yea I do ... should only get stronger as it moves se...better cape later this afternoon... wouldnít suprise me spc pop a enchanced over the west middle Tennessee area
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 21, 2019, 09:55:30 AM
HRRR says from Nashville eastward to the mountains could be under the gun late tonight into tomorrow morning.  Looks like a very active time through the weekend into next week.

Quote
For Tonight, a warm frontal boundary over the mid-Mississippi
valley into the northern Gulf Coast states will begin to lift
northeast as low-level southwesterly jet increases. Another MCS
will likely develop over the mid-west and slide southeast toward
Tennessee/southwest Virginia early Saturday morning.

For Saturday, model soundings are in fairly good agreement in
showing increased mid-level lapse rates and boundary layer
moisture. This will increase the CAPEs over the area. NAM shows
CAPEs increasing to 2500-3000 J/Kg with DCAPEs of 1300-1500 J/Kg
which will be favorable for damaging winds. The Wind Damage Index
is well over 1. Also the steep mid-level lapse rates will produce
high Hail CAPEs so large hail will be a concern with the stronger
storms.

The main questions for late Friday night and Saturday is timing of
the convection. If the storms move through in the morning, then
the atmosphere will not be able to recover. Will include the
potential of strong to severe storms in the HWO for late tonight
and Saturday.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 21, 2019, 09:57:00 AM
so does anybody think the complex in Missouri will be officially labeled a derecho event....so far it has been a massive bow, ongoing for quite a few hours and shows no signs of stopping

It has to last at least 6 hours, have 60+ MPH across the span of the MCS, and travel at least 250 miles.  I also believe there has to be at least a few 75MPH+ winds or EF-1 or greater tornadoes to be classified as a derecho. 

The last one I know for sure that was a derecho was one that occurred in Late June 2018.  Actually there were two that day one that started on the KY/TN border and went through AL and another one that tracked from SE Iowa down to West TN.  Hurricane Elvis "2003" and the extensive squall line on 3/1/2017 were also derechoes. 

Post Merge: June 21, 2019, 09:58:06 AM
Watch that leading bow as it approaches St. Louis it may take a southward/southeastwardly turn.  If it does and maintains its strength then Western KY/TN could be impacted.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: gcbama on June 21, 2019, 10:05:12 AM
yea I do ... should only get stronger as it moves se...better cape later this afternoon... wouldnít suprise me spc pop a enchanced over the west middle Tennessee area

well the trajectory is more east south east, looks to me more of a north of 40 east of 65 threat...UNLESS that other complex behind the main one dives a little more south....but who knows , sometimes they take an even harder right turn southeast so...it just bears close monitoring....I am glad for once my prediction came true :) lol
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 21, 2019, 10:52:02 AM
It may take a harder southeastwardly turn as it impacts St. Louis as there is a weak frontal boundary that goes approximately from St. Louis down towards the I-24 corridor of S IL/W KY.   

Post Merge: June 21, 2019, 10:53:47 AM
Quote
Given storm intensity, some areal expansion along the
   southern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414 may be needed across
   northeast KS. Current storm motion is southeastward at 40-45 kt,
   which is faster than the leading MCS
. As result, these two systems
   may eventually interact, although when this occurs and the resulting
   effects are uncertain.

This is interesting  ::pondering::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 21, 2019, 12:28:26 PM
The Day 1 has been updated and a large Enhanced area has been added that includes most of northern Middle TN.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: gcbama on June 21, 2019, 12:56:51 PM
It has to last at least 6 hours, have 60+ MPH across the span of the MCS, and travel at least 250 miles.  I also believe there has to be at least a few 75MPH+ winds or EF-1 or greater tornadoes to be classified as a derecho. 

The last one I know for sure that was a derecho was one that occurred in Late June 2018.  Actually there were two that day one that started on the KY/TN border and went through AL and another one that tracked from SE Iowa down to West TN.  Hurricane Elvis "2003" and the extensive squall line on 3/1/2017 were also derechoes. 

Post Merge: June 21, 2019, 09:58:06 AM
Watch that leading bow as it approaches St. Louis it may take a southward/southeastwardly turn.  If it does and maintains its strength then Western KY/TN could be impacted.

The one that impressed me the most was 2012....started in Iowa/Illinois and ended up in the Delmarva and Atlantic City NJ region!!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on June 21, 2019, 01:53:39 PM
TWC is officially calling the storm that rolled through the Carilinas yesterday a Derecho, so if today's St Louis storm earns the classification it will be 2 in 2 days.  Very interesting.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 21, 2019, 03:08:53 PM
The initial MCS is restrengthening and looks to have completed a right turn.  It is looking like it may be the initial (St. Louis area) MCS that impacts us and not the one behind it.  The one behind it may die out gradually because it is moving into an increasingly capped environment.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: gcbama on June 21, 2019, 03:18:09 PM
The initial MCS is restrengthening and looks to have completed a right turn.  It is looking like it may be the initial (St. Louis area) MCS that impacts us and not the one behind it.  The one behind it may die out gradually because it is moving into an increasingly capped environment.   

I think west of 65 and south of 40 is safe.....north of 40 and east of 65 looks more like the target

Post Merge: June 21, 2019, 04:10:14 PM
I think west of 65 and south of 40 is safe.....north of 40 and east of 65 looks more like the target

Hmmmm the western "derecho" is really ramping up....looks like west of 65 is in play also
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 21, 2019, 04:58:57 PM
How great are the chances of seeing a UFO/shelf cloud entering into the Nashville Metro area in a few hours? I want to try and position myself to see it if possible.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 21, 2019, 05:32:12 PM
Donít know if it makes it here but things are rocking to my NW.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 21, 2019, 06:04:31 PM
The one that impressed me the most was 2012....started in Iowa/Illinois and ended up in the Delmarva and Atlantic City NJ region!!

Funny you mention that.  That derecho hit Atlantic City and surrounding areas just a couple weeks before I moved up there.  My house was in Galloway which is an inland suburb of Atlantic city and the neighborhood I was in lost power for over a week due to the storm damage.  They were just getting power back on when I was moving in.  Apparently there were 100+mph gusts in this area and it took down lots of power poles.

That sequence of events ended up being beneficial for me and my neighbors there as we never lost power later in the year when Hurricane Sandy hit.  While we had hours and hours of 75-110mph winds, we never lost power since most of the poles and infrastructure was just installed and was in tip top shape from the derecho earlier in the year.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on June 21, 2019, 06:09:23 PM
New watch our now which extends southwest of Memphis. Not one single model predicted this as far SW. Not good for those who still donít have power from overnight Wednesday night.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 21, 2019, 06:15:50 PM
Those storms are lined up like an invading army. Very exciting.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 21, 2019, 06:17:03 PM
It literally went from 106 to 76 in 30 seconds. Sustained winds of 35 with gusts in the 40s. Looks to be slowly sinking south.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 21, 2019, 06:27:15 PM
Uh oh- TOR for Trigg Co KY... near Cadiz
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: wmp600 on June 21, 2019, 06:30:58 PM
My sister in Paris, TN says winds are terrible & power out debris all over her yard. She says it's pretty scary no rain or thunder just wind.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 21, 2019, 06:31:37 PM
I have this bad feeling we're about to have a mass power outage here around Nashville.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 21, 2019, 06:37:03 PM
The wind out front means business. It has been howling for 20 minutes. Rain just started. Some damage being reported around the county.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Ultra mag 1971 on June 21, 2019, 06:41:36 PM
Wind tough here also
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: WXHD on June 21, 2019, 07:01:50 PM
Excitement seems to be matching my way. Wow, someone put a bow on it!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Charles L. on June 21, 2019, 07:05:07 PM
Ft Campbell reported a wind gust of 63 mph, no doubt some other areas near there were higher.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 21, 2019, 07:09:51 PM
The line headed into Memphis screams wind storm between the broken up precip presentation, its odd forward propagation, and just the screaming forward speed.  Looks like one of those situations where the wind is going to come up hot and heavy before the rain.  Everyone in Memphis metro needs to batten down the hatches.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: memphishogfan on June 21, 2019, 07:17:37 PM
We had one heck of a dust storm on this side of the river.  All the dry farmland provided ample dirt.  It was like standing in a sandblaster
Title: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 21, 2019, 07:21:48 PM
TOR for Robertson County.

This may be a boardwide storm line that affects nearly everyone.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 21, 2019, 07:32:03 PM
Metro Nashville now SVR warned.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 21, 2019, 07:35:04 PM
Ended up with only .10 of rain. How the heck did that happen ?
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on June 21, 2019, 07:44:50 PM
The watch areas keep moving east with most of East TN now in the watch area.  It might be a loud night for us in Knoxville.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 21, 2019, 07:47:45 PM
Good night to watch for fireflies and heat lightning!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 21, 2019, 07:52:58 PM
I'd say there's a good chance something is spinning near Goodlettsville/Hendersonville right now
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: WXHD on June 21, 2019, 08:12:47 PM
WOW. Wow. That was an incredible front. Watching it from my own yard, it was surreal. If we hadnít had the rain earlier this week it would have been really bad. That was intense and makes a top 3 weather experience for me.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 21, 2019, 08:14:55 PM
Good description of what I just saw: BLACK. I have not seen the skyline that dark since April 27th.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: NismoWx on June 21, 2019, 08:23:50 PM
Good description of what I just saw: BLACK. I have not seen the skyline that dark since April 27th.

My mother just called to say the same thing, minus the 4/27 reference. I'm currently in the TOR polygon in Walter Hill. Power is flickering.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: WXHD on June 21, 2019, 08:25:23 PM
31K without power in Nashville.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Clay on June 21, 2019, 08:26:50 PM
Here we go again with the stupid sirens in Downtown Nashville and all across Davidson County.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 21, 2019, 08:28:21 PM
Finally got power back here in Hopkinsville.  The worst wind I have experienced since 3/1/2017 but thankfully no noteworthy damage in at least my part of town.

We have had two 75MPH+ gusts with this line in the PAH CWA so this will go down as a Derecho.     
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: NashRugger on June 21, 2019, 08:29:01 PM
80mph winds mentioned in latest wording, northern Rutherford County is the bullseye.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: TNHunter on June 21, 2019, 08:35:04 PM
Ended up with only .10 of rain. How the heck did that happen ?

I wish I could have got that lol didnít even get enough in the gauge to see. Crazy how the rain has eluded this area for weeks now
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 21, 2019, 08:46:34 PM
Line appears to be re-strengthening
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Charles L. on June 21, 2019, 08:48:14 PM
Well, that was intense. Parents lost two trees in their yard. Somehow we kept power, though it did flicker a few times.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 21, 2019, 08:51:58 PM
Springfield, TN reported an 80MPH gust when this derecho passed through.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Jilly on June 21, 2019, 09:14:44 PM
60-65mph winds between Smithville and Sparta. Been awhile since I've seen that much sustained wind.
Just in time for ham radio yearly "field day."
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 21, 2019, 09:19:31 PM
Bullseye McMinnville[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Charles L. on June 21, 2019, 09:21:20 PM
A tree on a house in Cookeville, Livingston reporting tree damage, and a TOR warning for downtown McMinnville. This line isnít losing much power at all as it moves ESE.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: NismoWx on June 21, 2019, 09:35:10 PM
We got nailed with the radar indicated 80+mph winds. Neighbor's trampoline is in the tree on the fence. We lost a couple of branches off the tulip poplar that just peeled off the tree. One neighbor lost his plastic mailbox, another had his basketball goal thrown across/into the road. I took a walk around our cul-de-sac looking for damage. Luckily we all kept our shingles and siding. Daylight will reveal more, though.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190622/d7edb8131020b65903935e94f85e4262.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190622/dc9615d5ce226b9f6044cbc548b30f3d.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190622/e5079bca92e50ec5735f7d69431f738b.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190622/9fa2a73933ee7171009ee033c4bed80a.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Charles L. on June 21, 2019, 09:48:23 PM
Finally got an Enhanced severe risk zone that verified, and actually over performed.

Seems like we will get some sort of damage report from every county, in middle TN anyways, out of this. You donít see that every day!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 21, 2019, 10:16:35 PM
Pretty amazing light show has been going on here since 9:30.  Started out as a dim flickering in the air, and it has steadily increased in brightness and intensity.  Now, as the storms approach Knoxville, the western sky is lighting up with intense flashes.  Living in an area with little artificial lightning makes for awesome nighttime storm viewing. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Charles L. on June 21, 2019, 10:19:00 PM
One fatality confirmed up in Allen County, KY this evening.

Man was killed when a tree fell onto his truck. Horrible.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 21, 2019, 10:34:38 PM
Doesn't make a lot of sense that the SPC didn't include areas north-northeast of Knoxville in the severe t-storm watch.  Storms are roaring through there now with all of them currently warned. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Clay on June 22, 2019, 12:28:24 AM
From tonight's storms:

Credit: @DHdeeder on Twitter


Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 22, 2019, 05:22:11 AM
Twigs and small branches litter the yard, but other than that, escaped the damage and extreme winds that occurred before the MCS started to weaken.  Had nearly a half inch of rain.  Next one approaching the Ohio River this morning, but mostly flood warnings associated with it, and not severe.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 22, 2019, 08:27:11 AM
Next complex coming down out of Kentucky.

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on June 22, 2019, 09:08:22 AM
Next complex coming down out of Kentucky.
this one doesn't have much of a punch to it thus far
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 22, 2019, 09:12:15 AM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

I think it is safe to call last night a Derecho.  I am not sure if the GA/SC stuff was part of the main system or not since I crashed right after the storms pushed out of Middle TN.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on June 22, 2019, 10:42:05 AM
Looks like the main focus for meso is about to shift west into Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas. One of those might sneak over this way overnight tomorrow but those folks are about to get drilled for a few days.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 22, 2019, 11:10:02 AM
One fatality confirmed up in Allen County, KY this evening.

Man was killed when a tree fell onto his truck. Horrible.

Looking at the reports the ground-zero of the worst of the winds and even potenitally a few embedded tornadoes appears to have occurred from about Trigg and Christian County Kentucky and then ESE around the KY/TN border across Robertson County TN, Simpson and Allen County KY, and over into Sumner and Macon Counties in TN.  That is also closer to where you had the two MCS's merge.   I think when that first MCS merged with the main one coming from the west it caused the whole thing to ramp up.     

Post Merge: June 22, 2019, 11:16:32 AM
It does look like every county in Middle TN and maybe even East TN had a damaging wind report. 

For Middle TN that is probably the first time that has occurred since maybe 7/13/2004.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 22, 2019, 12:13:05 PM
Looks like the next one is showing up northwest of Paducah.

The one this morning came through with little fanfare, other than winds picking up for a few minutes, a drop in temperatures and a few minutes of rainfall.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on June 22, 2019, 12:26:22 PM
Meanwhile at Alta UT

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190622/da15a9fa47a7a53fb14120723d981b4f.jpg)

And itís snowing today. Passes for next season just went on sale before this season is over.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 22, 2019, 02:21:45 PM
[attachimg=1]

Here is an image from Hopkinsville from last nights storm taken from a Grain Bin and pointing to the southern/southwestern side of town and just beyond.   

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Charles L. on June 22, 2019, 03:58:55 PM
Clarksville just got hit again with a severe thunderstorm.

It is dropping down I-24 too and radar is picking up 70 mph winds.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 22, 2019, 05:27:40 PM
We have a regular pipeline of daily convective complexes thatís set up over our area.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 22, 2019, 07:13:56 PM
Pretty much the entire CONUS east of the rockies is a soup of meso boundaries with large swaths moderate to high CAPE. The next 24 to 36 hours will be pretty hard to call as far as storms go.  A cold front comes through Sunday night/monday morning to wipe the slate clean finally.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 23, 2019, 01:16:19 PM
Parts of W TN are under a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Meanwhile, Friday's storms have been officially listed as a Derecho and tracked from Nebraska to Charleston, SC.   

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/national/line-of-storms-leaves-1-000-mile-path-of-destruction-impacting-four-us-major-cities?fbclid=IwAR3XtWZASuxwxeFmWrmE7NwFSxMS3L-qNZXzOPhjZM-DCZdxQrA7Ag19O80
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 23, 2019, 01:30:40 PM
Looks like another robust MSC is shaping up for today and will likely have more effects on western TN than the last round.  There is already a big deep cold pool, ample cape that will only get higher as the sun warms the boundary layer, and slightly increased shear ahead of the line.  Would be worth paying attention to the weather today, especially if you are outdoors.  I can see another solid derecho developing from this with wide spread severe winds.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 23, 2019, 03:03:13 PM
Widespread 70MPH winds and tornado warnings and yet SE Missouri is only in a Marginal Risk of Severe Storms even as of the latest 20Z outlook.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on June 23, 2019, 03:21:37 PM
Looks likes itís going to cross the river in the next hour or 2. HRR has some really heavy rain overnight too.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on June 23, 2019, 03:37:28 PM
That line over eastern ark starting to get its act together ... intensifying as it moves east... almost starting take shape as couple bowing segments ....
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 23, 2019, 04:49:37 PM
Strong gust front on the front end. Not much else at my location. The more severe part is around Paducah.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 23, 2019, 05:08:52 PM
Impressive blooming of fresh new cells around Memphis metro. Lets see how this plays out.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 23, 2019, 05:11:55 PM
Very little lightning with this line.

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Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 23, 2019, 05:18:32 PM
There is a concert at snowden grove   amphitheater down here going on right now. I Iive  close enough to hear music. They are still playing despite the line of storms right on our door step.    Very stupid IMO and this is how people get hurt.

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Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: WXHD on June 23, 2019, 06:16:00 PM
Very little lightning with this line.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

How much snow can I expect in my backyard?
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 23, 2019, 06:37:54 PM
About to see what the line is all about.  Doesn't look near as threatening along the KY/TN as Friday did.  The part that passed to the north of me was pretty significant.  Moors Marina in Marshall County has been significantly damaged and a church lost its roof in Smithland which is just east of Paducah.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 24, 2019, 01:37:06 PM
(http://www.weather.gov/images/mrx/graphicast/image7.png?9d98d8cff7b9d002f5fe40451431a193)

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT

Watch currently covers all of east TN. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 25, 2019, 03:04:42 PM
https://www.wlky.com/article/video-shows-kentucky-marina-get-hit-by-tornado-as-boaters-dock-just-feet-away/28184964

Some pretty wild video from Sunday's severe storms across Western KY.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Crockett on June 25, 2019, 04:55:30 PM
The majority of this board is certainly getting their wish thus far this summer...rain, rain and more rain.

Meanwhile, I'm at St. George Island in Florida and I found weather that would make Bruce smile (not severe weather, but a close second)... not a cloud in sight and heat index in the 100s every day.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: schneitzeit on June 25, 2019, 06:59:08 PM
Are we drying out for the next several days? Middle TN is heading for the dog days of summer, with temperatures in the 90s and lots of sun. Bring it!   8)
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 26, 2019, 08:17:41 AM
North America had theirs in 2017.  Now it's South America's turn.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/video/science/the-only-total-solar-eclipse-of-2019-is-coming-in-july/vi-AADpi62?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/video/science/the-only-total-solar-eclipse-of-2019-is-coming-in-july/vi-AADpi62?ocid=ientp)

Post Merge: June 26, 2019, 08:42:18 AM
The majority of this board is certainly getting their wish thus far this summer...rain, rain and more rain.

Meanwhile, I'm at St. George Island in Florida and I found weather that would make Bruce smile (not severe weather, but a close second)... not a cloud in sight and heat index in the 100s every day.

Not been bad at all on this side of the state.  Probably ending the month here with 3.9", which is pretty much "normal."  Had a lot more Sun than rain. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: gcbama on June 26, 2019, 08:54:46 PM
one thing i LOVE about summer is in the evening looking off in the distance at the anvil clouds from thunderstorms and seeing the lightning. From Hohenwald I could clearly see that pop up storm in Decatur county and it was pretty
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: mamMATTus on June 26, 2019, 09:43:04 PM
Uh, where did all these storms come from? This was not in the forecast.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 27, 2019, 06:49:03 AM
This is gonna be the biggest rain of the month for my house and it was not forecasted.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 27, 2019, 07:00:17 AM
This is gonna be the biggest rain of the month for my house and it was not forecasted.

Ah, if we could only have a few of those this winter, but with snow.   
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: gcbama on June 27, 2019, 09:37:42 AM
Uh, where did all these storms come from? This was not in the forecast.

When it comes to summer, if there is decent humidity I do not model watch/pay much attention to forecast....it's just radar watching/cloud watching because I have seen so many "mostly sunny" forecast turn into gully washers and "mosty cloudy with storms" turn into a sunny day. Anything in the summer forecast more than three days out will most likely change by the time you actually get there lol

Unless there is a front or something really tangible in the area , summer is too hard to predict precip-wise in my opinion
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 27, 2019, 10:09:16 AM
Uh, where did all these storms come from? This was not in the forecast.

Go ole meso low from yesterday's convection.  I love summer storms sometimes.  ::yum::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Crockett on June 27, 2019, 11:31:53 AM
North America had theirs in 2017.  Now it's South America's turn.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/video/science/the-only-total-solar-eclipse-of-2019-is-coming-in-july/vi-AADpi62?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/video/science/the-only-total-solar-eclipse-of-2019-is-coming-in-july/vi-AADpi62?ocid=ientp)

Post Merge: June 26, 2019, 08:42:18 AM
Not been bad at all on this side of the state.  Probably ending the month here with 3.9", which is pretty much "normal."  Had a lot more Sun than rain.

Maybe not in your neck of the woods, where you're benefited by downsloping effect. However, the northern plateau is going to wind up about an inch or so shy of a June record for rainfall.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on June 27, 2019, 01:42:35 PM
Go ole meso low from yesterday's convection.  I love summer storms sometimes.  ::yum::

This comes from being married to a Oxford, MS girl for nine years, but I first read that as "Go Ole Miss low..."  ::lookaround::  ::doh::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JHart on June 27, 2019, 04:46:53 PM
With last night's rain, we have reached 47.48 inches total for the year out here Ö about the annual average for Nashville.  We picked up 6.53 inches so far this month. ::drowning::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 27, 2019, 05:25:59 PM
We ended up with 2.1 inches this morning.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: dwagner88 on June 27, 2019, 06:36:27 PM
With last night's rain, we have reached 47.48 inches total for the year out here Ö about the annual average for Nashville.  We picked up 6.53 inches so far this month. ::drowning::
Wow. After getting 35Ē here by the end of March, itís actually been fairly dry since. Only up to 40.5Ē for the year.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JHart on June 27, 2019, 06:53:59 PM
Wow. After getting 35Ē here by the end of March, itís actually been fairly dry since. Only up to 40.5Ē for the year.
  We have had at least double average (sometimes triple) each month since October, with the exception of May, which was about half of average.

We missed the flood that came to Murfreesboro tonight, however.  Impressive sight just off to our west for a while.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on June 27, 2019, 08:11:30 PM
This comes from being married to a Oxford, MS girl for nine years, but I first read that as "Go Ole Miss low..."  ::lookaround::  ::doh::
As long as you don't randomly start talking about hotty toddy, we will be fine.

Sent from my P027 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on June 28, 2019, 08:28:42 AM
Interesting evening yesterday.  A very tiny, isolated storm developed as I drove home from work.  Apparently, it was strong enough to produce something akin to a microburst, as the rain shaft and the associated updraft collapsed.  The road on the way home was covered with small twigs and leaves when I drove through where the storm moved through.  There was also running water on the sides of the road, so it really dropped a deluge over a small area. 

MRX says more could come over the following days:

Quote
Locally heavy rain and lightning strikes will be the main impacts,
but DCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates could allow for isolated wet microbursts.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on June 28, 2019, 02:28:23 PM
MRX wasn't kidding with their forecast - we went from hot and sunny to thunder with a frog-strangling rain in just a few minutes.  This means I don't have to water the garden tonight!  ::rain::

Post Merge: June 28, 2019, 02:37:47 PM
40 mph wind and reports of hail have bumped this up to a SWA for Knox and Anderson counties, pretty good little storm for us.

Post Merge: June 28, 2019, 02:47:08 PM
And the SWA got bumped to a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. This on got bad enough I squeezed the truck into the garage in case of hail but we got lucky and didn't see any.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 30, 2019, 12:56:00 PM
There is not a death ridge showing up on models yet. Looks like carbon copy normal dog days of summer for the next 10 days or more. Actually a little cool down in the long range but we will see if that happens.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: StormNine on June 30, 2019, 07:21:48 PM
The trend this summer, in general, is probably to ride the edge of the stronger ridges similar to how we did in 2016 and even last year.   That means that we will still be prone to summertime popups and maybe even another MCS event here or there to go with our hot, hazy, and humid.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: snowdog on June 30, 2019, 10:43:18 PM
Is it almost October yet?  ::hot::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on June 30, 2019, 10:56:04 PM
If we just get to the low 90ís on a regular basis ...Iím ok. Itís the endless 95 to 100 days that linger well into September that irk me. As Dyer mentioned, LR globals picking up on a cool air mass in about 10 days infiltrating the central US. I can handle this kind of summer if we get occasional breaks. After all, we are only about 60 days from metrological fall.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 01, 2019, 06:52:30 AM
The Mississippi River continues to be above flood stage. It is currently 6 feet above flood. Today makes 140 consecutive days and all but 5 days this year. There are thousands of acres in Lauderdale and Dyer counties that will not get planted this year.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on July 01, 2019, 07:08:48 AM
Jesus ... itís summer in the mid south... everyone. Thatís lived here for lil bit at least should be used to heat humidity ... hope it linger till first October personally myself ...
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on July 01, 2019, 08:11:15 AM
Jesus ... itís summer in the mid south... everyone. Thatís lived here for lil bit at least should be used to heat humidity ... hope it linger till first October personally myself ...

So...youíre actually upset that people donít want heat and humidity?
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Thundersnow on July 01, 2019, 08:36:16 AM
Jesus ... itís summer in the mid south... everyone. Thatís lived here for lil bit at least should be used to heat humidity ... hope it linger till first October personally myself ...

There must be static on the line. We didn't get all that. Please retransmit.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on July 01, 2019, 09:11:01 AM
So...youíre actually upset that people donít want heat and humidity?
no. Just think we should be prepared for what summer time around is like ... to be honest ... not been bad summer at all ... but people think weíre going see highs average 80 around here should know better lol

Post Merge: July 01, 2019, 09:16:21 AM
Three things certain in life... death... taxes... and summer time in the midsouth...
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on July 01, 2019, 09:17:10 AM
no. Just think we should be prepared for what summer time around is like ... to be honest ... not been bad summer at all ... but people think weíre going see highs average 80 around here should know better lol

Ok gotcha - you sounded perturbed. I donít think anyone has an expectation that highs will be below 80 for at least 60-90days. I thought I was explicitly clear regarding my dislike for endless mid 90ís but now Iím being redundant.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: snowdog on July 01, 2019, 05:05:56 PM
Anyone seen the freak hail storm pics from Guadalajara? Pretty amazing. Feet of hail accumulated. I didn't even know that was possible.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on July 01, 2019, 05:19:30 PM
Anyone seen the freak hail storm pics from Guadalajara? Pretty amazing. Feet of hail accumulated. I didn't even know that was possible.

Pretty amazing- the cars looked like they were dodging icebergs in the streets.

How about this straight line wind video from South Texas last week?

https://youtu.be/V_3j7xr14sk
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 01, 2019, 05:30:58 PM
Screenshot from video of truck driving through hail.   ::wow::

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on July 01, 2019, 05:31:54 PM
Pretty amazing- the cars looked like they were dodging icebergs in the streets.

How about this straight line wind video from South Texas last week?

https://youtu.be/V_3j7xr14sk
Holy crap. I would love to witness that (from a reenforced concrete building ).

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on July 01, 2019, 07:09:45 PM
On this date in weather history, Knoxville hit it's all time record high of 105F in 2012.  Hope that record remains unchallenged for a very long time. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: snowdog on July 01, 2019, 11:05:04 PM
Pretty amazing- the cars looked like they were dodging icebergs in the streets.

How about this straight line wind video from South Texas last week?

https://youtu.be/V_3j7xr14sk

Wow. Seems like there has been a more active jet this late spring vs recent years. Both here and in Europe, where France saw extreme highs and Turkey saw the lows.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on July 02, 2019, 07:02:51 AM
Typical July weather this week, but with storms increasing over Rocky Top as the week progresses.  Hey, Mother Nature likes to provide her own fireworks for the 4th.  The rain will be welcome IMBY. 

I hope everyone here has a safe and enjoyable Independence Day.   ::flag:: ::flag::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: dwagner88 on July 02, 2019, 11:46:34 AM
We hit 95 officially yesterday. We are running a little bit ahead today. I'm guessing 97, which will match the highest temp from the memorial day heatwave. The humidity is worse now though.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on July 03, 2019, 01:08:07 PM
I am in Tunica today for work and i noticed something I have never seen in my 20 years of coming down here. It seems the MS river has been so high for so long the water table has seemed to come up and all the low places on the dry side of the levees have become ponds.  This has resulted in crystal clear ponds to spot the landscape within about a mile or so of the levee.  Its pretty cool.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: WXHD on July 03, 2019, 03:08:58 PM
Thanks to a pop up, we just lost about 10 degrees of heat and almost 20 degrees of heat index. Feels good!
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: cgauxknox on July 03, 2019, 08:55:54 PM
Mother Nature is putting on some nice fireworks with the line coming into West Knoxville.   Everybody enjoy a fun and safe Independence Day tomorrow!   ::flag::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: dwagner88 on July 03, 2019, 10:18:53 PM
AC just went out. Turns out the dogs had loosened a connector and it frayed. I did a hack job fix in the dark. Itís working again now. Hope it holds tomorrow. I donít want to pay for an emergency July 4th service call.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on July 04, 2019, 07:23:19 AM
If warm water off the northwest coast of North America is good for our winters, this might help.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/a-giant-heat-dome-over-alaska-is-set-to-threaten-all-time-temperature-records/ar-AADO5K4?ocid=spartanntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/a-giant-heat-dome-over-alaska-is-set-to-threaten-all-time-temperature-records/ar-AADO5K4?ocid=spartanntp)
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on July 04, 2019, 08:30:21 AM
Happy 4th everyone... semper fi... ::flag::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: memphishogfan on July 05, 2019, 10:49:50 AM
Got a much needed 1.5 here this morning as stuff kept redeveloping over us. 


On another note. Anchorage International hit 90 for the first time in recorded history yesterday.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on July 05, 2019, 04:06:29 PM
Got a much needed 1.5 here this morning as stuff kept redeveloping over us. 


On another note. Anchorage International hit 90 for the first time in recorded history yesterday.

I guess JB should rethink his theory that the Arctic is only warming in winter. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 05, 2019, 05:22:06 PM
Very intense scary looking line just moved in here. No warning but itís ripping.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on July 06, 2019, 08:25:31 AM
The warmth in Alaska is pretty amazing.  It's coming on the heels of an all-time record warm June.  Fairbanks has been pushing into the middle and upper 80's for multiple days.  It's crazy that they are as warm right now as we are.

While a warm "spell" isn't unusual for them (especially in modern times), to have a record warm month followed up by Anchorage shattering their all-time record high is a bit unnerving.  This isn't normal by any means.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: dwagner88 on July 06, 2019, 10:00:45 AM
Finally got some decent rain yesterday. 1.3Ē in about 30 minutes. Iíve noticed that the GFS has been extremely accurate with our high temperatures over the last week. It consistently predicted high 90ís each day. MRX went with low to mid 90ís and wound up busting. If it continues to be accurate this coming week, triple digits are possible Wednesday. Convection is also forecast for the same time frame though, and that could hold down temps a bit.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on July 06, 2019, 02:51:34 PM
Very little rain in the central TN valley today--on a day we were supposed to see widespread convection.  Earlier this week, heavy rain was forecast Friday-Sunday, but yet to see more than a few drops here.  Getting rather dry, and a decent storm would be most welcome.

Post Merge: July 07, 2019, 12:29:42 PM
Came home from a family visit to wilted and browning grass.  The sun has cooked the ground, and rain is badly needed.  All on a weekend it was supposed to rain.  This is why I never whine and complain about a wet pattern.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: snowdog on July 08, 2019, 08:14:10 AM
I can never decide which is worse, low humidity and 100+ temps, or high humidity and low 90's.

It's awful out there today.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: BRUCE on July 08, 2019, 08:40:49 AM
I can never decide which is worse, low humidity and 100+ temps, or high humidity and low 90's.

It's awful out there today.
all good... your getting the best of both worlds ...  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on July 09, 2019, 07:51:42 AM
The new norm for a warming world.  People go to Alaska to enjoy the beach.

Watch out Myrtle Beach--you have competition for those tourist dollars now. 




Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: gcbama on July 09, 2019, 10:59:52 AM
I can never decide which is worse, low humidity and 100+ temps, or high humidity and low 90's.

It's awful out there today.

I would always 100+ with low humidity over 80's and 90's with 70 plus dewpoints

the massive heat wave of 2012, we hit 110+ 6 days in a row ( dry heat) in lewis county and it was still more comfortable than 90 with high humidity
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: dwagner88 on July 09, 2019, 04:06:18 PM
We needed a heat advisory today. Airport is 99 with a DP of 70 right now. Heat index is 108. It is awful out there.

Post Merge: July 09, 2019, 08:49:45 PM
We needed a heat advisory today. Airport is 99 with a DP of 70 right now. Heat index is 108. It is awful out there.
All of this heat has put a lot of energy and moisture into the air. Getting a lot of rain over the last hour. Some places are over 4Ē.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: snowdog on July 10, 2019, 02:14:48 PM
Poor Ryan Maue getting Twitter mobbed today.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 10, 2019, 03:58:30 PM
Rain is definitely more widespread than the 30% chance we had. Heavy rain in places. It has thundered at my house for two hours but not much here yet.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: schneitzeit on July 10, 2019, 04:24:14 PM
Strong storms in Williamson County right now. Gusts are intense; they appear to be in excess of 40 mph.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: dwagner88 on July 11, 2019, 01:31:02 PM
Finally seeing the sun for the first time today. Another decent rain event this morning with 1.70" falling. We are quickly making up for that dry June.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on July 11, 2019, 04:57:52 PM
Some areas were big winners in the central valley, other areas near me saw a trace. 
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 11, 2019, 05:13:31 PM
Iím sure itís a mirage but the GFS continues to show crazy cool for July in the long range. Highs in 70s and lows in 50s statewide.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: JayCee on July 11, 2019, 06:02:46 PM
Iím sure itís a mirage but the GFS continues to show crazy cool for July in the long range. Highs in 70s and lows in 50s statewide.

Not sure why the GFS exists, since even the NWS seems to throw it out most of the time--winter or summer.


Quote
and its exact track, we could have more widespread
convection. The GFS is currently one of the most bullish on QPF for
Saturday,
and unsurprisingly, is one of the eastern and generally
weaker track solutions which brings a broad 850mb jet and strong low-
level convergence into our area. Other guidance continues to place
the strongest 850mb flow to our west
, and this would keep our area
drier. At this time, tend to lean more toward the ECMWF and Canadian
which keep the majority of convection to our south and west.

You know something is wrong with your computer guidance model when even the Canadian beats it.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Crockett on July 12, 2019, 04:04:42 PM
I have officially had enough heat. It can cool off now.  ;D

(No more rain, though, please!)
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: bugalou on July 12, 2019, 06:45:21 PM
Barry will bring some good practice to those looking to sharpen their radar reading skills for TVSes from KDGX to KNQA (and maybe some high res from TMEM).  I know many people user radar scope on mobile and it is indeed a fabulous app, but for learning I would still recommended GRLevel3.  It is still my go to for any major event here and the the quad panel I go with (Base Reflectivity, Base velocity, storm relative velocity, correlation coefficient) look awesome on a nice big 4k ultra HD monitor.  I have two Dell 28" UHD monitors so I often get two quad panel sessions of GRL3 up at two different sites (or at different tilts depending on the situation)
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Curt on July 16, 2019, 04:02:26 PM
Advertised ďcool downĒ still on track for the medium to long range starting Monday. A cool dry airmass should clear out the humid soup and send highs down into the 80ís maybe through months end with an eastern trough. A couple of 50ís are showing up for overnight lows too.
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Charles L. on July 16, 2019, 05:16:29 PM
Advertised ďcool downĒ still on track for the medium to long range starting Monday. A cool dry airmass should clear out the humid soup and send highs down into the 80ís maybe through months end with an eastern trough. A couple of 50ís are showing up for overnight lows too.

I am ready for the ❄️
Title: Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 16, 2019, 05:41:29 PM
I am ready for the ❄️
Only a couple weeks away from the winter thread.