Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on April 13, 2019, 07:45:57 AM

Title: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 13, 2019, 07:45:57 AM
We have an active day ahead of us in the Deep South with a 5% tornado risk extending into SW Tennessee and then a threat in Middle and Eastern TN for tomorrow. 

Today has some high-end potential in Louisiana and Mississippi based on storm mode and tomorrow could feature one or two rounds of severe storms with all modes possible. 
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: cgauxknox on April 13, 2019, 07:49:29 AM
With an enhanced risk covering all of East TN for tomorrow this is a rare system for us.  Hopefully we just get some good fireworks without real damage, but it's concerning, particularly considering that it's likely to hit on Palm Sunday morning when many people are going to be out back and forth to church.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 13, 2019, 07:58:38 AM
junk convection along the ark la tex could dampen this  event bit... should help it from going to high risk... next weeks event has more potential... models been indicating that for while...
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 13, 2019, 08:03:00 AM
Latest update did not go high risk.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 13, 2019, 08:05:58 AM
Latest update did not go high risk.
they did expand the slight risk more north into Tennessee more
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 13, 2019, 10:09:58 AM
junk convection along the ark la tex could dampen this  event bit... should help it from going to high risk... next weeks event has more potential... models been indicating that for while...

That convection is due to the warm front.  Just south of that warm front is 2000-3000 Surface CAPE across SE TX/S LA.  Once that front moves north across Northern Louisiana than that highly unstable mass will gradually move into those areas. 
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: NashRugger on April 13, 2019, 10:32:38 AM
I'll say the highest threat area, from what I'm seeing and just a little bit of a forecaster's hunch is going to be from Winnfield, to Winnsboro, to Vicksburg, and bending slightly to Jackson.

Post Merge: April 13, 2019, 10:53:52 AM
Radar confirmed tornado just west of Hearne, TX. Velocities well over 100kts.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Charles L. on April 13, 2019, 11:18:28 AM
Looks like possibly dual tornadoes on the cell approaching Franklin, TX.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 13, 2019, 11:32:56 AM
Franklin, TX is about to take it on the chin.  Any of those discrete storms that can get going near that warm front in SE Texas are going to become problems. Another one near Kennard, TX may take off as well.   

Further east I do think current convection could shunt the greater risk a little bit to the south.  Think that NashRugger pretty much has the general zone of the greatest threat down pat.   

For us at home thinking that the tonight's threat is probably going to go to our south but with the strong low-pressure system approaching us we still cannot rule out an isolated spinup or damaging wind event across our area during the overnight/wee-morning hours.  There are a ton of questions on whether redevelopment can occur in the afternoon.  If it does the winds are mostly unidirectional meaning that storms will probably have more of a hail/wind threat with just an isolated tornado threat if they do form at all.   

Next week will be addressed after we get through this event because there are differences in how broad the trough is which can be the difference between a tornado outbreak or just another typical springtime cluster or squall line.   
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: BRUCE on April 13, 2019, 11:38:47 AM
Franklin, TX is about to take it on the chin.  Any of those discrete storms that can get going near that warm front in SE Texas are going to become problems. Another one near Kennard, TX may take off as well.   

Further east I do think current convection could shunt the greater risk a little bit to the south.  Think that NashRugger pretty much has the general zone of the greatest threat down pat.   

For us at home thinking that the tonight's threat is probably going to go to our south but with the strong low-pressure system approaching us we still cannot rule out an isolated spinup or damaging wind event across our area during the overnight/wee-morning hours.  There are a ton of questions on whether redevelopment can occur in the afternoon.  If it does the winds are mostly unidirectional meaning that storms will probably have more of a hail/wind threat with just an isolated tornado threat if they do form at all.   

Next week will be addressed after we get through this event because there are differences in how broad the trough is which can be the difference between a tornado outbreak or just another typical springtime cluster or squall line.
still think convection back building some going shunt this threat bit ... spc multi day threat next week is concerning ... seeing some early analog s coming aren’t good ...
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: NashRugger on April 13, 2019, 12:31:45 PM
still think convection back building some going shunt this threat bit ... spc multi day threat next week is concerning ... seeing some early analog s coming aren’t good ...
If you're going to say that, at least mention some of those dates.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 13, 2019, 12:54:59 PM
He mentions March 1952 on the other thread.  If someone wants to they can start the thread on the mid-week they can and we can separate that discussion into its own thread.  That one is going to start getting a lot of attention and hype after this event ends, severe weather lovers dream of sub 990mb lows in Iowa when they go to bed.   
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 13, 2019, 04:18:15 PM
Monster tornado in Louisiana. PDS warning.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Curt on April 13, 2019, 04:47:08 PM
Monster tornado in Louisiana. PDS warning.

Vicksburg MS looking really bad at the moment. Man I hope those folks are paying attention.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 13, 2019, 04:52:43 PM
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1ypKdvDnXdQJW
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 13, 2019, 04:56:46 PM
Every warning along the MS River is showing some rotation along that broken line.  Even if the transition to QLCS goes complete we still cannot rule out a strong tornado even in QLCS form across Mississippi.  The Vicksburg storm being the greatest concern at the near moment.   
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 13, 2019, 05:11:54 PM
Twins.

[attachimg=1]

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Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 13, 2019, 05:35:26 PM
Not that I’m trying to downplay in any way and maybe it’s still early, but I expected the radar to be more lit-up than it is right now.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: StormNine on April 13, 2019, 05:41:24 PM
Seeing blues on my CC near Phoniex, MS.  Meaning either hail or something got hit.   
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: mamMATTus on April 13, 2019, 09:01:37 PM
Already getting some rogue-looking cells in southern middle TN currently...
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Charles L. on April 13, 2019, 09:05:47 PM
Already getting some rogue-looking cells in southern middle TN currently...

The Giles County cell is trying its hardest to rotate. Earlier a cell passing just west of Lawrenceburg had solid rotation for one to two scans.

Post Merge: April 13, 2019, 09:26:30 PM
Impressive little hail core on the cell moving up east of Centerville.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Flash on April 13, 2019, 09:28:38 PM
Yowzers!

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Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Charles L. on April 13, 2019, 09:37:20 PM
Yowzers!

Not a bad supercell given the environment it is working with across middle TN.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Flash on April 13, 2019, 09:38:29 PM
Not a bad supercell given the environment it is working with across middle TN.

I'll get the GoPro rolling here in just a sec in case this thing holds together. Side note: Are ETVS's pretty much useless when mentioned?
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Charles L. on April 13, 2019, 09:40:26 PM
I'll get the GoPro rolling here in just a sec in case this thing holds together. Side note: Are ETVS's pretty much useless when mentioned?

ETVS?
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Flash on April 13, 2019, 09:49:02 PM
ETVS?

Radar Scope flagged that cell as ETVS...which I think means elevate TVS? I'm guessing this refers to broad circulation above a certain level with a standard TVS being lower to the ground.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: mmryan on April 14, 2019, 02:06:58 AM
My doorbell camera captured this. It is so neat.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on April 14, 2019, 07:01:28 AM
Wonder if we can get storms to re-fire today...
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Thundersnow on April 14, 2019, 07:11:26 AM
I was actually just reading OHX’s thoughts on that... doesn’t seem likely west of the Plateau:

Quote
We had thought there might be some additional
severe storms after this first batch as a cold front sweeps
across the area today, but this seems much less likely now. The
atmosphere will not have much time to recover from morning rain
before the front arrives. Still, there could be a few
thunderstorms reforming today, especially for the Plateau.

Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Charles L. on April 14, 2019, 07:33:12 AM
While the LA portion of yesterday’s MDT risk busted, you can’t say the same for MS and AL. Will be interesting to see what the final tally is and what the strongest tornado damage they find.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: JayCee on April 14, 2019, 07:35:29 AM
Typical April weather.  Possible severe followed by much cooler and mountain snowflakes.

Quote
The surface low associated with the Mississippi
Valley deep upper trough will be driving northeast through the
Ohio Valley while dragging the powerful cold front through the Mid
south around mid day into the afternoon. This will be where the
main threat of severe weather will occur with the best likelihood
of severe thunderstorms impacting Northeast Tennessee and
Southwest Virginia later this afternoon into the early evening
hours. Its very interesting because previous model runs (in recent
days) have been showing a high shear but low cape event, but
looking at the early morning model runs, cape doubles to triples
in magnitude to a moderate or even high category across Northeast
Tennessee. Of course, shear will not be a problem with bulk shear
at around 60-80 kts. Just not convinced capes will rise into the
1500-2000 j/kg range in this area during the afternoon,
instability should be more than sufficient as the front moves
through later today into the evening. The convective line pushes
east of the forecast area during the mid to late evening hours
bringing an end to the severe weather threat and heavier rain.
Some weak trailing upper level energy and relatively deep moisture
build east across mainly the northern half of the forecast area
behind the front bringing widely scattered showers and even a
snowflake or two in the higher terrain areas toward daybreak.

Post Merge: April 14, 2019, 07:42:29 AM
Even without storms, HRRR shows wind gusts approaching 50mph from the plateau eastward this afternoon.   ::wow::
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: schneitzeit on April 14, 2019, 10:45:52 AM
The band of moderate rainfall has passed through downtown Knoxville. What remains is some pop-up storms this afternoon. I have my fingers crossed for some severe weather action.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: JayCee on April 14, 2019, 11:19:38 AM
Looks rough from I-75 eastward later today.

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1102 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The initial line of storms has weakened considerably as it moves
into the eastern half of our area. Satellite shows clearing skies
over Middle TN that will allow for good surface heating and
destabilization this afternoon, in addition to strong warm
advection with the southerly flow. SBCAPE values are expected to
rise into the 1500-2000 J/kg range, and perhaps higher than that
in the southern Valley. This, combined with the dry air aloft and
continued high deep layer shear, will result in another round of
severe storms in the 3 pm to 9 pm time frame. Hi-res models show
redevelopment of storms near the I-75 corridor, taking the form of
supercells that evolve into a line as it moves east across NE TN
and SW VA.
Damaging winds will be the greatest threat due to the
dry air and strong winds aloft, and potential for bow segments
along the line. LCL heights and 0-1 SRH values also support a
tornado threat for the whole area, but favoring areas along I-75
as backing of surface winds may be difficult to achieve in the
shadow of the mountains in the northern Valley
. Hail may also be a
threat given the low WBZ heights, but it appears marginal (dime
to quarter- size) looking at CAPE profiles in forecast soundings.
Hi-res models are in good agreement that the storms will exit our
area around 10 pm.

For once, I'm glad I live in the shadow of the mountains. 


Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Crockett on April 14, 2019, 11:52:08 AM
SPC has removed the enhanced risk for all of East TN. Now just a slight risk across the eastern half of the state.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: JayCee on April 14, 2019, 12:38:29 PM
SPC has removed the enhanced risk for all of East TN. Now just a slight risk across the eastern half of the state.

A bit of good news.  The enhanced area is from eastern KY northeastward into Ohio now.

Clouds and even some light rain are lingering east of Knoxville.  That may be part of the reason for the change. 





Post Merge: April 14, 2019, 12:45:57 PM
Visiting folks in London, KY this weekend.  Looks like we could be under a Tornado Watch shortly.  The sun has been out here since about 10:00 a.m.

Quote
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky...Southern Ohio...Western West
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

   Valid 141725Z - 141930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Boundary layer destabilization is underway in eastern
   Kentucky with agitated cumulus now visible on satellite. Storm
   initiation is expected within the next 2-3 hours. Strong deep-layer
   wind profiles will support storm organization and supercells capable
   of all severe hazards. A tornado watch will be forthcoming in the
   next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a mid-level shortwave now approaching western
   Kentucky, low-level moisture return has begun to increase across the
   discussion area. An area of enhanced cumulus, per visible satellite,
   along a confluence axis has developed in eastern Kentucky. Given the
   continued vertical development of these clouds and latest guidance
   on timing from CAMs, storm initiation appears to be 2-3 hours away.
   Region VAD profiles show between 50-70 kts of flow from 850-700 mb.
   Accordingly, low-level hodographs are relatively large -- which has
   been sampled well by the JKL VAD -- along and south of a warm front
   now nearing Wilmington, OH. As heating and moistening of the
   boundary layer continues, MLCAPE values are forecast to reach around
   1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer flow will support effective bulk shear
   of 60-75 kts. This parameter space suggest supercell storms capable
   of all hazards. A tornado watch is likely in the next hour or two.
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Hank W on April 14, 2019, 05:44:59 PM
Not sure if anyone else was watching WTVA’s coverage from Tupelo last night, but there were some pretty comical moments. Matt Laubhan did a great job, just struggled to stay calm a few times. He did apologize to John later on air, but I sure got a kick out of these clips.  ::rofl::  ::rofl::  ::rofl::
https://awfulannouncing.com/local-networks/mississippi-meteorologist-snapped-his-fingers-at-coworker-on-air.html
Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: Greyhound on April 14, 2019, 06:07:01 PM
Very anticlimactic in Knoxville.  Got windy for a bit.....rained a little bit....sun's back out, a little cooler and breezy. 

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
Post by: MSR041933 on April 14, 2019, 10:04:08 PM
Had my first “close call” last night Marion\Franklin county AL storm.. Im not the best with reading the different velocity’s and CCs and even to my eye I knew there it had probably dropped another TOR and had for sure seen a well defined debris ball..we left our house around 11:15 and the rotation went either directly over the basement we took cover at, or just miles to the west.while at the same falling apart and broadening out..Spann had mentioned a few times that storm had a history of cycling and putting one on the ground. It was the the first time I can recall ever being so sure we would be riding out a tornado. Prayers to family’s of lost loved ones in Monroe county.