Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on March 13, 2019, 05:34:54 AM

Title: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: StormNine on March 13, 2019, 05:34:54 AM
With the potential for 40-50MPH+ winds in parts of our area as well as two risks of severe weather (West TN today and West/Middle TN into the Ohio Valley tomorrow), it is time for another thread.   
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 13, 2019, 06:56:33 AM
New Day 1

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: JayCee on March 13, 2019, 07:04:25 AM
New Day 1

(Attachment Link)

Spring severe weather circles are ones I don't mind being left out of.  It may have something to do with 100ft trees around my house. 
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Beth on March 13, 2019, 08:28:37 AM
I am really scared since Newschannel 5 posted this on FB.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/national/snow-rain-hail-70-million-are-in-the-path-of-bomb-cyclone-set-to-strike-the-central-us
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: JHart on March 13, 2019, 08:45:45 AM
You have to be wary of anything named "Ulmer."  ::)
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: JayCee on March 13, 2019, 09:34:11 AM
I am really scared since Newschannel 5 posted this on FB.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/national/snow-rain-hail-70-million-are-in-the-path-of-bomb-cyclone-set-to-strike-the-central-us
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

That's the trending and viral weather term for this winter--da "bomb."   ::)  The media just can't help themselves. 
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: memphishogfan on March 13, 2019, 09:56:53 AM
Love it when forecast offices throw shade at the SPC in their AFD's

Quote
In the past it`s been tough this time of the year to see numerous severe storms that are defined with an enhanced risk...which is in effect for the western and southern counties. The east and north is outlooked with a slight risk which seems more appropriate for the entire area as experience suggests.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 13, 2019, 11:14:26 AM
Love it when forecast offices throw shade at the SPC in their AFD's

can we blame them? spc so far has been a bit woeful in their over forecasting of severe events this year. I was still so shocked that they left the enhanced risk during the last event after it had rained ALL day .Slight risk yes...enhanced for our area I think not
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: bugalou on March 13, 2019, 11:19:48 AM
can we blame them? spc so far has been a bit woeful in their over forecasting of severe events this year. I was still so shocked that they left the enhanced risk during the last event after it had rained ALL day .Slight risk yes...enhanced for our area I think not

They were on point with the threat last week IMO, we just got lucky it came through slightly early.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 13, 2019, 11:51:56 AM
They were on point with the threat last week IMO, we just got lucky it came through slightly early.

In the day before yes I agree on point...however by 11:30 the day of the event it was apparent that the rain shield was not going anywhere imo should have been reduced to slight risk in our area...maybe I am being to critical lol...but so many people that are not weather buffs look at situations like that as crying wolf and that is why apathy sets in to the general public I think. So when there is a real threat they think " we have seen this movie before"

 maybe I listen to james spann  too much but I am in agreement with him on a lot of his severe weather discussions when it comes to this

Post Merge: March 13, 2019, 11:56:13 AM
on a side note...can anybody remember the last really big severe event in our area (discrete supercells) was Dec 2015 really the last situation like that or am I forgetting one? I know in 2017 I had a random supercell come through my area and produce an EF1 here in lewis county but not a widespread situation.

Seems like the past 3-4 years anytime there is a substantial "moderate" threat we have a lot of cloud cover and rain shields(crapvection) during the day right over mid tn and places like central Mississippi and alabama end up with the worst of it? Don't get me wrong , it is not like I want supercells coming into my area, I just find it very interesting that it keeps happening that way
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: ryandourius on March 13, 2019, 12:55:12 PM
There is a real ominous feeling in the air here in West TN. Seems like tonight may prove very interesting.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 13, 2019, 01:52:59 PM
There is a real ominous feeling in the air here in West TN. Seems like tonight may prove very interesting.
It is definitely warm but DP is just 54 here. SE wind bringing dry air into the mix instead of gulf moisture.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: bugalou on March 13, 2019, 01:56:30 PM
There is a real ominous feeling in the air here in West TN. Seems like tonight may prove very interesting.

Ominous would be the sun coming out for an hour or two.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: memphishogfan on March 13, 2019, 02:05:32 PM
sun has been in and out all day here.  Like Dyer said, the SSE wind is whats keeping us from all out war tonight.  70/58 here in Manila. 

We have been having talks all afternoon about what to do about Church tonight since it looks to be getting here during those hours.  Without a real TOR chance most of the staff wont go with cancelling so hopefully that gulf moisture stays south of here.

Post Merge: March 13, 2019, 02:35:33 PM
Enhanced was removed this morning, wouldn't be surprised to see the slight trimmed back to just ARKLAMISS area. 
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: bugalou on March 13, 2019, 02:48:18 PM
SPC has removed the enhanced risk for today.  All slight now.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: memphishogfan on March 13, 2019, 03:26:12 PM
Sun has been out for a good hour here.  69/60 at last check.

Lack of a true southern wind really killing off any instability.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: StormNine on March 13, 2019, 05:17:07 PM
I am really scared since Newschannel 5 posted this on FB.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/national/snow-rain-hail-70-million-are-in-the-path-of-bomb-cyclone-set-to-strike-the-central-us
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

Someone in the media is about to call this thing a snowcane or something like that.  I can almost sense it. 
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: memphishogfan on March 13, 2019, 06:41:04 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/6uGhT1O4sxpi8/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 13, 2019, 06:44:22 PM
97 mph wind gust at Colorado Springs airport.  What a huge storm. Crazy wind from Texas to North Dakota.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: schneitzeit on March 13, 2019, 07:08:01 PM
That's incredible. Not every year you witness these kinds of winter storms.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 13, 2019, 07:26:52 PM
That's incredible. Not every year you witness these kinds of winter storms.
This is a once in lifetime storm. Even for these areas that get storms on a regular basis.

Post Merge: March 13, 2019, 07:34:12 PM
Currently broad circulation on storm moving towards Tunica Ms and looks like a squall line developing along Mississippi River
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: ryandourius on March 13, 2019, 07:41:22 PM
Squall line looks to be forming. I am seeing some imbedded rotation on that storm in MS. I figured it was going to storm tonight. Still will be marginal. We had all the right ingredients this time minus the gulf air flow.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: StormNine on March 13, 2019, 07:56:23 PM
That warned bow echo looking storm does look to be moving in the general direction of Memphis.  Does have a damaging wind look to it.  It won't take much for these storms to bring down the strong winds from up above.   

Post Merge: March 13, 2019, 08:02:35 PM
As dreamy as having snow with 80-90MPH winds sounds it is likely producing ice storm level power issues.  The wind by itself would do that but add on the weight of the snow then you have a serious power infrastructure threat.  I do wonder if some of their power lines are buried underground due to the High Plains being so prone to wind storms and if that is the case it would limit that threat.   

If we ever had 80MPH winds and heavy snow or even just 50-60MPH winds and heavy snow we would probably be dealing with Ice Storm 94 style outages with all of our trees and above ground powerlines.   
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 04:20:11 AM
SPC has put the heart of middle Tennessee in enhanced with 10 percent tornado threat.... today
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Simplex on March 14, 2019, 05:19:04 AM
Hey folks, I usually just lurk here when I'm back in town but figured I'd post due to the inactivity.

HRRR sure looks spooky tommorrow afternoon for the mid state, hopefully the word gets out in  time.

Sig Tor looks ghastly last couple HRRR runs[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: NismoWx on March 14, 2019, 05:24:49 AM
Hey folks, I usually just lurk here when I'm back in town but figured I'd post due to the inactivity.

HRRR sure looks spooky tommorrow afternoon for the mid state, hopefully the word gets out in  time.

Sig Tor looks ghastly last couple HRRR runs (Attachment Link)
Mercy. If that were to verify....!



I was concerned when I got to work at 0400 and I took off my hoody because I was sweating.. Outside.. At 0400...in mid-March!! Work truck dashboard said 63į in Smyrna.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Simplex on March 14, 2019, 05:29:11 AM
06Z 3KM NAM looking grim as well.

Lets hope for some crapvection to our south  ::fingerscrossed::[attachimg=1]

Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: ryandourius on March 14, 2019, 05:30:11 AM
I just got woke up by a screeching weather radio. Tornado Watch just issued for West TN, Eastern Arkansas and the MO Boothill.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Simplex on March 14, 2019, 05:32:38 AM
Updraft Helicty tracks[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: NismoWx on March 14, 2019, 05:43:39 AM
Updraft Helicty tracks (Attachment Link)
That was actually pretty accurate last Saturday, FWIW, especially east of 65.


I'll be in Memphis until 1300ish, then I'll be heading back to Smyrna. Should be a fun ride home.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: cgauxknox on March 14, 2019, 05:46:40 AM
I just stepped outside and the feel of the air this morning is just spooky.   It's warm and heavy with a steady breeze,  before 7 AM in mid March.  I hope the models miss on the severity of the threat in Middle TN,  but I'm also hoping they're right about the lack of a real threat in East TN.  I have to be out for a meeting tonight at about the time things should really get started,  so it may be interesting.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Thundersnow on March 14, 2019, 06:09:01 AM
Thereís a TOR on a cell in E AR at this early hour. Could be the start of a busy day.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: ryandourius on March 14, 2019, 06:10:04 AM
Storms in Arkansas now taking on supercelluar structures. First tornado warning of the day just issued.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 06:14:35 AM
Storms in Arkansas now taking on supercelluar structures. First tornado warning of the day just issued.
good call  just fixing post that cell looking rough
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: OutsiderLuknIn on March 14, 2019, 06:25:50 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190314/0b93ecf5f3a125f51bc385e99a3a499d.jpg) These were on my back porch. Youíre looking at them when theyíre in my neighbors yard about 75 feet away.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Thundersnow on March 14, 2019, 06:34:54 AM
That cell lost its look on velocities, and the TOR was allowed to expire. There are some SVRs still in E AR.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: mamMATTus on March 14, 2019, 06:45:31 AM
Did not expect things to ramp up to this level.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: JayCee on March 14, 2019, 06:56:37 AM
The microclimates of east TN always fascinate me.  While areas to my west are seeing winds gust to 25mph this morning, a pocket in east TN where I reside is dead calm.  Once the sun gets up and mixing takes place, we'll start to see wind here, but for now, there's not even a slight breeze blowing.  This always happens when there are southerly winds blowing over the mountains.  We seem to be in a protected pocket where the winds remain elevated, but don't reach the ground until a sufficient amount of mixing takes place. 
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Matthew on March 14, 2019, 07:14:14 AM
Dew point is only 56.  We shall see.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Charles L. on March 14, 2019, 07:15:13 AM
Dew point is only 56.  We shall see.

It is in the low to mid 60s across western KY just ahead of the front, so I expect them to rise here too throughout the day.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 07:17:47 AM
One cell in eastern ark... approaching west ridge... could go tornadic soon .. gaining some rotation each velocity scan
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 14, 2019, 07:33:01 AM
Currently 70 with a DP of 66 here.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: NismoWx on March 14, 2019, 07:47:17 AM
I-40 @ 43mm looking SE. For once, I don't want to see blue skies. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190314/319db522868707dad6d93e498f29debb.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: mamMATTus on March 14, 2019, 09:21:26 AM
The air feels too stable in Nashville right now.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Eric on March 14, 2019, 09:31:55 AM
The air feels too stable in Nashville right now.

There's a cap around 5000' that's supposed to erode by the afternoon. 
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: bellatrixr on March 14, 2019, 09:44:32 AM
Chris Bailey & WAVE TV report damage in Paducah from tornado.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: spanarkle08 on March 14, 2019, 09:48:04 AM
So is this pretty much over in West TN?
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 14, 2019, 09:54:49 AM
is it just me or does it look like things aren't going to fire up until east of 65 in our region?
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 10:02:01 AM
So is this pretty much over in West TN?
yes...
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Matthew on March 14, 2019, 10:10:18 AM
I am trying to load pics of paducah tornado but it wonít let me. 
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: NismoWx on March 14, 2019, 10:13:00 AM
I am trying to load pics of paducah tornado but it wonít let me.
PAH had a near miss at the NWS office from that one.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 14, 2019, 10:17:03 AM
yes...

idk bruce I am seeing redevelopment on the ms river? or am I dreaming lol
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Beth on March 14, 2019, 10:19:31 AM
Go to WKYT.com and it shows the tornado there.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Flash on March 14, 2019, 10:27:05 AM
The air feels too stable in Nashville right now.

It's stable, but unlike past threats, we're 66į/55į at mid-morning with southerly winds/gusts both over 30 mph. For the Debbie Downer's on here, I get the cap and the lack of parent low proximity, but it's too early to punt.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 10:33:15 AM
idk bruce I am seeing redevelopment on the ms river? or am I dreaming lol
surface winds here are getting more a west component now.  But I see what u are saying
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: mamMATTus on March 14, 2019, 10:34:31 AM
It's stable, but unlike past threats, we're 66į/55į at mid-morning with southerly winds/gusts both over 30 mph. For the Debbie Downer's on here, I get the cap and the lack of parent low proximity, but it's too early to punt.

Itís definitely in the change process right now. The air has a more soupy feel to it within the last 30 mins to an hour.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Flash on March 14, 2019, 10:35:35 AM
Itís definitely in the change process right now. The air has a more soupy feel to it within the last 30 mins to an hour.

Sun just came out downtown.

Post Merge: March 14, 2019, 10:41:26 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0206.gif)

Quote
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 23 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado watch 23 will be allowed to expire at 17Z. A
   downstream watch is not likely in the near term.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has weakened across tornado watch 23 with little if any lightning remaining. No additional storm intensification is expected in the next few hours. Therefore, the tornado watch will be allowed to expire at 17Z with no downstream watch likely in the near term. An additional tornado watch may beneeded by later this afternoon in at least portions of this area as low-level moisture advection and heating through breaks in the clouds leads to some destabilization.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 14, 2019, 10:55:09 AM
fascinating how 80-90 percent of recent severe events just die and fail to materialize for mid tn
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 11:01:07 AM
fascinating how 80-90 percent of recent severe events just die and fail to materialize for mid tn
seems like mid Tennessee has gotten bit more severe weather than west Tennessee actually ... course Nothing been really huge

Post Merge: March 14, 2019, 11:02:18 AM
seems like mid Tennessee has gotten bit more severe weather than west Tennessee actually ... course Nothing been really huge
in a span of 5 years or so ...
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 14, 2019, 11:02:42 AM
seems like mid Tennessee has gotten bit more severe weather than west Tennessee actually ... course Nothing been really huge

that's what I mean bruce...no big big event to speak of in quite a while....and this one looks like it is going to flare up east of 65 in my opinion.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Cyrgeetar on March 14, 2019, 11:08:53 AM
Williamson Co schools are dismissing early due to severe weather at dismissal time


Time to get the kids
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Matthew on March 14, 2019, 11:09:28 AM
Like Eric said earlier.  It is this afternoon the chance.  I could see us having some rough wx this afternoon. DP is 59.  Paducah was not expecting bad wx.  They had several storms train over them.  A lot can happen especially with sun peeking thru.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Flash on March 14, 2019, 11:18:27 AM
fascinating how 80-90 percent of recent severe events just die and fail to materialize for mid tn

(https://media.giphy.com/media/bgs0PbjKdYTrG/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 11:19:39 AM
that's what I mean bruce...no big big event to speak of in quite a while....and this one looks like it is going to flare up east of 65 in my opinion.
agree with you
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: mamMATTus on March 14, 2019, 11:21:51 AM
Williamson Co schools are dismissing early due to severe weather at dismissal time


Time to get the kids

Welp, itís pretty much a given now that nothing is going to happen lol.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Flash on March 14, 2019, 11:21:55 AM
that's what I mean bruce...no big big event to speak of in quite a while....and this one looks like it is going to flare up east of 65 in my opinion.

15z HRRR would disagree. Be mindful of recency bias.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 11:23:42 AM
If pressure falls were greater with this system ... we would be looking at a more formidable tornado threat for sure ....across most tennessee
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: NashRugger on March 14, 2019, 11:24:36 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5GCO9ZOzYo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5GCO9ZOzYo)

WPSD in Paducah caught it live.

Post Merge: March 14, 2019, 11:34:01 AM
If pressure falls were greater with this system ... we would be looking at a more formidable tornado threat for sure ....across most tennessee
Perhaps. This system did bomb and do an almost instant occlusion so it's been filling almost since yesterday, with it now at 988mb and rising. Also, there is some slight veering of the winds in the mid levels that curtails a touch.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: mamMATTus on March 14, 2019, 11:53:42 AM
Sun is really breaking through in Green Hills currently. Some of you have cashed in too early Iím pretty sure. Iím going to go with storms firing about 20 miles west of Nashville.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 11:56:14 AM
They hatched the tornado risk middle tn. Tornado watching coming soon. Per meso
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: collinsk on March 14, 2019, 11:58:34 AM
I was wondering if one would come for our area. I think we might have things fire up in Mid TN later this afternoon too.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: bellatrixr on March 14, 2019, 12:05:50 PM
TOR warning Hardin county
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: JayCee on March 14, 2019, 12:11:05 PM
fascinating how 80-90 percent of recent severe events just die and fail to materialize for mid tn

I'd call that a blessing.   ;)
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Beth on March 14, 2019, 12:12:30 PM
Tornado Watch just went out till 7 tonight.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 14, 2019, 12:33:13 PM
It was really windy yesterday as expected but nothing like what we are seeing now. Good grief. I would expect we are having multiple gust in the 50s.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: RABBITT040 on March 14, 2019, 12:34:58 PM
Here we go....
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: mamMATTus on March 14, 2019, 12:42:22 PM
This now looks like a more legit threat than Saturday. Public will scoff at this one today.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Beth on March 14, 2019, 12:44:06 PM
Indiana is covered up in Tornado warnings.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Matthew on March 14, 2019, 12:44:55 PM
Miss is also getting more tornado warnings.

DP is 61 in Boro.  This is going to be interesting what these storms do.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: JayCee on March 14, 2019, 12:49:21 PM
Multiple TOR warnings for southern Indiana and northwest Ky. 
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: mamMATTus on March 14, 2019, 12:55:32 PM
Are these storms directly west of Nashville the main threat or is that supposed to be a little later in the afternoon?
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Charles L. on March 14, 2019, 12:56:13 PM
The two cells down near the AL border are taking on the kidney bean shape...
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Matthew on March 14, 2019, 12:58:50 PM
The two cells down near the AL border are taking on the kidney bean shape...

Agree.  They are looking very healthy out by themselves
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: WXRocker on March 14, 2019, 01:20:52 PM
Meanwhile, in Hopkinsville...

(https://gph.to/2T2plc8)
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Matthew on March 14, 2019, 01:21:40 PM
Looking like the storms are loosing some punch.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 14, 2019, 01:21:50 PM
interesting how quickly they lose rotation once the cross into TN from the south

Post Merge: March 14, 2019, 01:22:32 PM
to the north supercell city....same to the south...yet tn it is losing punch....not that I want it to happen I just don't understand it lol
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Flash on March 14, 2019, 01:30:08 PM
interesting how quickly they lose rotation once the cross into TN from the south

Post Merge: March 14, 2019, 01:22:32 PM
to the north supercell city....same to the south...yet tn it is losing punch....not that I want it to happen I just don't understand it lol

Your constant negativity is constant. Chill out.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 14, 2019, 01:31:31 PM
Your constant negativity is constant. Chill out.

whats negative about saying I don't understand? Its in the form of a question
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Beth on March 14, 2019, 01:40:05 PM
whats negative about saying I don't understand? Its in the form of a question
Have you ever been through a major outbreak of tornadoes?  They may be fascinating but not so much when your left with a concrete slab and half of your family missing.  So just be thankful that we have not had any so far.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 14, 2019, 01:43:57 PM
Have you ever been through a major outbreak of tornadoes?  They may be fascinating but not so much when your left with a concrete slab and half of your family missing.  So just be thankful that we have not had any so far.

please read my entire quote....it states "not saying I want it to happen...I just don't understand" I would never want a tornado to happen however the meteorology behind this on is interesting to me how the rotation to the north and to our south is quite strong and currently with storms in TN it is not. And yes I have lived here since I was 5 years old in 1991 so I have seen my fare share of storms/outbreaks
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 01:44:19 PM
Have you ever been through a major outbreak of tornadoes?  They may be fascinating but not so much when your left with a concrete slab and half of your family missing.  So just be thankful that we have not had any so far.
i can understand his thoughts ... yeah I been in one . Seen several violent tornadoes 🌪 up close .... sure he donít want see one.  But itís the storm monger in us ... just part of it
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Charles L. on March 14, 2019, 01:44:37 PM
interesting how quickly they lose rotation once the cross into TN from the south

Post Merge: March 14, 2019, 01:22:32 PM
to the north supercell city....same to the south...yet tn it is losing punch....not that I want it to happen I just don't understand it lol

Up north they have the better upper level dynamics, where as those south are further from the dynamics, but they seem to be making up for it in terms of instability.

Right now we are kind of in the sweet spot (too far from the dynamics/not unstable enough), but that can change this afternoon as instability builds.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: NashRugger on March 14, 2019, 01:44:40 PM
interesting how quickly they lose rotation once the cross into TN from the south

Post Merge: March 14, 2019, 01:22:32 PM
to the north supercell city....same to the south...yet tn it is losing punch....not that I want it to happen I just don't understand it lol
Read some of the SPC previous MESO discussions and they can usually give you reasoning for "xyz" at "such and such areas."
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 01:47:39 PM
Up north they have the better upper level dynamics, where as those south are further from the dynamics, but they seem to be making up for it in terms of instability.

Right now we are kind of in the sweet spot (too far from the dynamics/not unstable enough), but that can change this afternoon as instability builds.
that perfect example u donít have to have high instability to have a large tornado .... seen plenty outbreaks where shear is very high low cape ...
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Beth on March 14, 2019, 01:55:04 PM
i can understand his thoughts ... yeah I been in one . Seen several violent tornadoes 🌪 up close .... sure he donít want see one.  But itís the storm monger in us ... just part of it
Sorry! I was not trying to be rude.  Living through the outbreak in 74 in North Bama was pretty traumatic. At 12 yrs old and losing half of your classmates it just kind of does some thing to you. It was a night from ****. To me tornadoes mean destruction of property, injuries, and death.  But I do understand the fascination that others have for them. 😊
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: RABBITT040 on March 14, 2019, 01:58:23 PM
I am not a expert but that looks like rotation.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 01:59:25 PM
 ::cliff:: I
Sorry! I was not trying to be rude.  Living through the outbreak in 74 in North Bama was pretty traumatic. At 12 yrs old and losing half of your classmates it just kind of does some thing to you. It was a night from ****. To me tornadoes mean destruction of property, injuries, and death.  But I do understand the fascination that others have for them. 😊
remember that day very well... was same age here ... though course it was east of us ... that day onward inspired my excitement of severe wx.... like I said. I feel very bad sick to my stomacha see some after effects of one ... sure u was very scared from that event Beth ... sorry
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Charles L. on March 14, 2019, 02:00:11 PM
I am not a expert but that looks like rotation.

You would be correct. Need to watch it closely to see if it tightens up.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 14, 2019, 02:05:51 PM
Lawrence county storm may have a chance to do something if it moves a little more east than north away from rain cooled air...a lot of crapvection in between cells today
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: mamMATTus on March 14, 2019, 02:21:54 PM
Wow that threat disappeared quick as the cells approached Nashville.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: JayCee on March 14, 2019, 02:23:31 PM
Sorry! I was not trying to be rude.  Living through the outbreak in 74 in North Bama was pretty traumatic. At 12 yrs old and losing half of your classmates it just kind of does some thing to you. It was a night from ****. To me tornadoes mean destruction of property, injuries, and death.  But I do understand the fascination that others have for them. 😊

I was 3 y/o, living in northern KY.  We didn't have a basement, and tornadoes were dropping all around us.  We ended up huddling in our concrete cistern listening to the wind take down several large maple trees in our yard, and the sound of power lines popping and exploding.  Things like that you don't forget even at that age. 
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 14, 2019, 02:25:16 PM
Wow that threat disappeared quick as the cells approached Nashville.

past several events have been so interesting to me ... the storms look angry coming out of Mississippi only to fizzle ... not saying they won't build back up later across east middle but It is just really interesting
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Charles L. on March 14, 2019, 02:28:22 PM
Wow that threat disappeared quick as the cells approached Nashville.

The sounding data OHX just got back showed very marginal instability, but very high shear.

Again, looks like we arenít going to get them to come together for an active day. Thank goodness.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 14, 2019, 02:32:31 PM
The sounding data OHX just got back showed very marginal instability, but very high shear.

Again, looks like we arenít going to get them to come together for an active day. Thank goodness.

Seems like in Mid Tn we have to have both to really get a big threat, seems that Ms and Alabama can get a few tornadoes just based off of instability, got to love weather , it is truly fascinating :)
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: BRUCE on March 14, 2019, 02:36:30 PM
Seems like in Mid Tn we have to have both to really get a big threat, seems that Ms and Alabama can get a few tornadoes just based off of instability, got to love weather , it is truly fascinating :)
places to the north of us. Have less instability even. Like Kentucky Indiana .. shear along is keeping the tornado threat up there alive
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Charles L. on March 14, 2019, 02:37:01 PM
Seems like in Mid Tn we have to have both to really get a big threat, seems that Ms and Alabama can get a few tornadoes just based off of instability, got to love weather , it is truly fascinating :)

They have upper level support too, it is just they are more unstable (higher CAPE, sufficient lapse rates, etc)

Just like with winter weather, it all has to come together just right to have a big severe day.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: gcbama on March 14, 2019, 02:47:20 PM
places to the north of us. Have less instability even. Like Kentucky Indiana .. shear along is keeping the tornado threat up there alive

agreed....the sheer up there is quite sufficient , to our south just a bit more unstable than we are here
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Matthew on March 14, 2019, 02:52:58 PM
Better to err on caution side but schools gonna get a lot of crap over closing early
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Charles L. on March 14, 2019, 02:56:57 PM
Better to err on caution side but schools gonna get a lot of crap over closing early

Iíve come to find that schools get a lot of crap for anything they do. People arenít happy no matter what they do.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Eric on March 14, 2019, 02:59:39 PM
Like I tell the people I argue with on FB about it, its about minimizing risk for ALL involved. 
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Charles L. on March 14, 2019, 03:03:12 PM
The cells moving into central AL are looking very threatening.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Coach B on March 14, 2019, 03:34:33 PM
Iíve come to find that schools get a lot of crap for anything they do. People arenít happy no matter what they do.

I can verify the accuracy of this statement!  ;)   I will say that we get way more complaints when we don't close than when we do.

For us, today's event was all about the timing. If the storms were forecast to come thru before 1 or after 5 it would have been different. That 2-5 window is very problematic with all of the student drivers and loaded buses out there. Tor Watch going up and warned storms in NE Miss sealed the deal.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: Matthew on March 14, 2019, 04:07:55 PM
No matter what happened today it has turned out to be a wonderful afternoon and quite comfortable.   Also not as much rain fell which means my daughter soccer tournament will go on starting tomorrow.
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: JayCee on March 14, 2019, 05:33:54 PM
People arenít happy. . . .

Amen. 
Title: Re: March 13th/14th High Wind Threat/Severe Storms Possible
Post by: StormNine on March 14, 2019, 07:03:26 PM
A tornado hit the town of Vernon, MI near Flint.  We also have a confirmed tornado northwest of the Clanton, AL area.  This event even though it didn't verify in Tennessee certainly has a broad reach.