Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 03:23:33 AM

Title: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 03:23:33 AM
HRRR is still painting multiple waves of storms moving through and then has a broken line of storms moving through during the early evening hours.

It really keeps the cells isolated as far east as the TN River, then seems to transition more linear as it reaches I-65.

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 07:12:27 AM
New SPC outlook expands the ENH risk westward, now includes Memphis.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 09, 2019, 07:17:04 AM
So no big precip shield with the warm front.  Letís see what we can get popping.  Maybe a little sunlight will make its way down.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 07:17:17 AM
Saw a post on Facebook that said ďAt least when we spring forward tomorrow night we will lose an hour of rainfallĒ

(https://i.imgflip.com/2p54xn.jpg)

Thatís actually meme-worthy right there.

(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/84209439/at-least-when-we-spring-forward-tomorrow-night-we-will-lose-an-hour-of-rainfall.jpg)

(https://media.makeameme.org/created/thats-not-how-31g08n.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 07:22:37 AM
Having a hard time believing the atmosphere is going to destabilize that much without at least some sun.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 09, 2019, 07:26:50 AM
just took the dog for a brisk morning walk... starting to see the first sign of breaks in the sky... slowly
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 07:31:25 AM
60į DPs are already across SW TN moving NE through Jackson.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 09, 2019, 07:37:38 AM
2.13 in the bucket yesterday and last night. Flood warnings are backs again.  Model qpf was far too low. They all had under 1Ē.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 09, 2019, 07:40:25 AM
60į DPs are already across SW TN moving NE through Jackson.
They are moving north fast. Currently 63 dp in Memphis and 53 here.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 07:45:44 AM
They are moving north fast. Currently 63 dp in Memphis and 53 here.

Both the RAP and HRRR get the 60į+ DPs pretty far northward. Gets most of us into ~63-65į range.

Definitely two camps this morning. The GFS/NAM never get DPs above 62į and limit how far northward the 60į DPs get.

The Hi-Res short term models (HRRR and RAP) surge 63-65į DPs very far northward/eastward.

Letís see who wins out today.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 09, 2019, 07:45:48 AM
Definitely a noticeable change from about 2 am when I went outside and when I just let the dog out.  Socked Iím with clouds though.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 08:04:26 AM
HRRR from weather.us around 3pm today. That is quite a concerning look. Even between 11am-2pm today it looks even a little worse. May head south here soon toward Columbia for some chasing...I've heard Asgard Brewing is pretty awesome lol.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: Eric on March 09, 2019, 08:06:39 AM
Interesting developments this morning, for sure....
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 08:10:50 AM
If I were chasing today I would target the Savannah-Selmar corridor.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: StormNine on March 09, 2019, 08:38:04 AM
I think the HRRR and RAP will win the moisture return battle.  The main question is the storm mode as well. The HRRR is more aggressive with its storm mode and would support a potential outbreak, but some of the latest runs do get messy with the storm mode north of I-40.

The best chance for a strong tornado appears to be where MS/AL/TN come together.  Depending on how unstable things get there and the storm mode may be a brief window for a strong tornado in SE MO/SIL/Purchase of WKY.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 08:40:06 AM

The best chance for a strong tornado appears to be where MS/AL/TN come together.  Depending on how unstable things get there and the storm mode may be a brief window for a strong tornado in SE MO/SIL/Purchase of WKY.

Agreed. The best and most unstable ingredients really do look to come together around that area.

Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: spanarkle08 on March 09, 2019, 08:57:28 AM
Dew point 62 here in South Carroll Co.@  8:57
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 08:58:13 AM
SPC's morning update expanded the ENH risk area a bit.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190309_1300_prt.gif)

Note the hatched area covering the western half of the state.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1probotlk_20190309_1300_torn_prt.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 08:59:07 AM
Well this is just ugly...

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 08:59:46 AM
I think I might go ahead and split this out to a dedicated thread...

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 09:02:15 AM
Thread split- use this one for today's threat.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 09, 2019, 09:07:10 AM
Latest hrrr is jus plain nasty... along ms river super cells try to space out more...umm... Iím heading toward McNairy co with friends ... bout 30 minute drive for me
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: wfrogge on March 09, 2019, 09:40:28 AM
I got to pack and drive to Nashville for a flight so gotta keep this short with no pics. Low level jet is screaming and not liking the streaks on updraft helicity HRRR runs. The WRF-NSSL and HRRR are not showing a huge discrete supercell threat but is showing a mess of quasi linear storms that are just as deadly around these parts (Look at last weekend in AL and GA).  If I were able to tornado chase today, Memphis, Jackson, Savannah, Nashville, to I-65 would be my target and I think have the highest risk.  The pre frontal mess coming through right now in Memphis is dumping penny size hail so guessing some outflows will form for storms over the next 4 hours or so and would monitor those locations.  STP numbers on all runs scream danger for these locations as well.

A MDT risk being issued is not out of the question as well SRH is impressive, shear is good, and think hail might be a big talking point today with storms that go severe.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 09, 2019, 09:48:04 AM
Low Level Jet is definitely screaming today. I've been in and out today searching for sanity while my 3 year old has a play party and have noticed clouds are really moving.
Title: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Curt on March 09, 2019, 09:52:50 AM
HRR has a corridor of insane supercell values from Tunica to Collierville from 1-3pm. SIGTOR not far behind. I think we know now instability wonít be a problem. Should be plenty of time for storms now to clear before then albeit no sun.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
Post by: MSR041933 on March 09, 2019, 10:01:07 AM
HRRR from weather.us around 3pm today. That is quite a concerning look. Even between 11am-2pm today it looks even a little worse. May head south here soon toward Columbia for some chasing...I've heard Asgard Brewing is pretty awesome lol.

I set up in west Lawrence county..64 HWY AND NATCHEZ TRACE

(Attachment Link)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 09, 2019, 10:04:34 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0169.gif)

Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 0169
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0945 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

   Areas affected...northeast Arkansas and northern Mississippi
   northward into far southern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

   Valid 091545Z - 091815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected to develop through
   afternoon from northeast Arkansas across northern Mississippi and
   toward the Lower Ohio Valley. A few tornadoes and damaging winds
   will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...A warm front continues to lift north across eastern AR
   and now into southeast MO and western KY, with rapidly increasing
   shear profiles. While instability is weak, a line of storms along a
   cold front over AR, and any additional storms that develop ahead of
   the upper vorticity max, may have the potential to produce tornadoes
   and/or damaging winds. Instability will be the main limiting factor,
   but excessive shear profiles and favorable large-scale lift may
   mitigate this.

   Southern parts of the line will move slower across southern AR into
   MS, but here instability will be stronger, and hodographs will
   clearly favor supercells.

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 10:08:49 AM
First TOR just popped over Little Rock. 

Quote
The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Faulkner County in central Arkansas...
  Northeastern Pulaski County in central Arkansas...

* Until 1030 AM CST.

* At 954 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over West Little Rock, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Hank W on March 09, 2019, 10:41:32 AM
Likely torando with this one just SE of LIT. It has since weakened, but had a few pretty intense scans.
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: StormNine on March 09, 2019, 10:49:28 AM
80/50 probs on that Tornado Watch for West TN.  Not too far away from being a PDS. 

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 10:53:50 AM
Despite the messy convection we still have 250-500 CAPE already in SW and SW Middle TN with up to 1000CAPE in the Arklamiss region.   
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 09, 2019, 10:55:44 AM
Maybe Iím wrong but I just donít see the potential up here around the bootheel.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 10:56:25 AM
DPs are getting to 64-65į in and around Memphis. Gives more credence to the RAP/HRRR than the GFS/NAM

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 11:03:02 AM
Confirmed TOR near Mira, LA
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 09, 2019, 11:03:30 AM
DP up to 64 in Dyersburg.

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 11:15:15 AM
From Reed Timmer.
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: RABBITT040 on March 09, 2019, 11:17:29 AM
Looks like the have the torcon up to 7 now for west TN
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: bugalou on March 09, 2019, 11:20:12 AM
Memphis is going to be on the south side of the warm front near the triple point of the system.  Radar is showing mostly QLCS, but thing may turn south in a hurry as the system runs into the deeper moisture.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 11:22:40 AM
Memphis is going to be on the south side of the warm front near the triple point of the system.  Radar is showing mostly QLCS, but thing may turn south in a hurry as the system runs into the deeper moisture.

These cells are trying to take on more of a supercellular look, and I think that will continue as we move on into the afternoon hours.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: WXRocker on March 09, 2019, 11:23:29 AM
Hopkinsville might get a taste of weather today, but if I were a betting gal, I'd go chase in and around Jackson, maybe all the way over to Nashville.  But I'm old and lazy, so I'll just watch from the sidelines.   ::coffee::  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: bugalou on March 09, 2019, 11:27:27 AM
These cells are trying to take on more of a supercellular look, and I think that will continue as we move on into the afternoon hours.

Completely agree.  All my friends and family here always go to me for weather events and I just let them know be ready to take cover this afternoon. This is the first threat in a while for Memphis I am worried about.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 09, 2019, 11:28:08 AM
And just like that reed timmer reminds me, hey I went to school for this, memphishogfan, you didn't.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mempho on March 09, 2019, 11:28:25 AM
Memphis is going to be on the south side of the warm front near the triple point of the system.  Radar is showing mostly QLCS, but thing may turn south in a hurry as the system runs into the deeper moisture.
Oh-  that's not good at all.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 09, 2019, 11:29:34 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1104432578700996608 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1104432578700996608)

video of tornado warned storm around lonoke earlier.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Matthew on March 09, 2019, 11:32:57 AM
Well 61/61 in Boro.   I did not see the dewpoint getting that high already.  Now does that mean anything no but  that sure makes me pause.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 09, 2019, 11:33:45 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1104431507240828928 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1104431507240828928)

more video
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 11:35:07 AM
There are downpours popping up already here in Mid TN. These are a different character from the moderate rains of late... roaring downpours that mean business.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 09, 2019, 11:43:49 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1104436135688839168 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1104436135688839168)

 ::wow::
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: pirates1 on March 09, 2019, 11:48:02 AM
My son is flying home (BNA) from Corpus Christi Texas today.  Flight to Houston was good/on time.  He had a 3 hr layover in Houston and was supposed to Depart Houston at 2:10 and land here at 4:30.  They have delayed departure until 4:30 but warned there might be more delays.  What are yalls thoughts on this?  What is it supposed to be like I guess around 6?  And I know itís just an educated guess donít worry I wonít go off if guesses are off.  I just want a weather persons best estimate!  Thank you!!!
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: bugalou on March 09, 2019, 11:55:02 AM
My son is flying home (BNA) from Corpus Christi Texas today.  Flight to Houston was good/on time.  He had a 3 hr layover in Houston and was supposed to Depart Houston at 2:10 and land here at 4:30.  They have delayed departure until 4:30 but warned there might be more delays.  What are yalls thoughts on this?  What is it supposed to be like I guess around 6?  And I know itís just an educated guess donít worry I wonít go off if guesses are off.  I just want a weather persons best estimate!  Thank you!!!

Being both a weather nerd and aviation nerd, I would not be surprised by further delays.  It may even get canceled.  Convective storms and airplanes don't mix well.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Beth on March 09, 2019, 12:01:09 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1104436135688839168 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1104436135688839168)
If I lived in a trailor or a moduler I would be hanging out in a mall today or some place a little more safe!  We just got a loud tstorm and heavy down pour but no wind with it.
 ::wow::
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 09, 2019, 12:14:39 PM
Storms moving into NEA really starting to take a super look to them
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Hank W on March 09, 2019, 12:21:45 PM
West TN and North MS really junky right now. Will be interesting to see what kind of transition we see in the next hour or two.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: StormNine on March 09, 2019, 12:23:49 PM
With only an hour or so between the waves of precipitation we are looking at only 250-500CAPE for this event.  We could approach 1000CAPE at the TN/MS border depending on short-term trends.   

The best chance for a strong tornado is on the TN/MS border and points south.  The storms in NE Arkansas could form a line or broken line of storms.  If they can pick up forward speed and use their wind shear we could see a QLCS out of them.  It will be a close call as we are not all that unstable and we will be relying on dynamics and wind shear.   
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 12:30:59 PM
Iím on the fence about heading down to the Columbia area to sit and wait. Not sure if it will be worth it. No watch yet for Middle TN havenít seen an MD yet.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: StormNine on March 09, 2019, 12:41:45 PM
The storm east of Marmaduke, AR would probably be quite the supercell if it had any instability around it. 
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 12:44:07 PM
Iím on the fence about heading down to the Columbia area to sit and wait. Not sure if it will be worth it. No watch yet for Middle TN havenít seen an MD yet.

Crapvection may win the day. Will be something if the NAM turns out to the right.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 12:51:40 PM
Crapvection may win the day. Will be something if the NAM turns out to the right.

That's exactly why I'm on the fence. If I don't see at least an SVR or MD within the next hour I'm staying put & hanging around Metro. I wasn't expecting this much precip. Certainly not going to put myself in a position to where I can't see anything.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 12:59:34 PM
Honestly, looking at trends, Iíd put the biggest risk zone across NE MS, NW AL, and maybe as far north as the bottom two rows of counties in middle TN.

Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 01:03:49 PM
HRRR continues to hold with the discrete look later this afternoon.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 01:05:46 PM
HRRR continues to hold with the discrete look later this afternoon.

It sure doesnít want to give up on that idea, but given the expansiveness of the convection out ahead of the main line I am having my doubts.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 09, 2019, 01:09:14 PM
The past two SVR events the HRRR has learned me to take what its saying and cut it in half.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 01:12:09 PM
New TOR Warning in the bootheel of MO.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 01:16:19 PM
Looking at helicity values for later on I think I could luck out just by hanging around Franklin.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Hank W on March 09, 2019, 01:27:29 PM
Storms near Senatobia and Ripley, MS bear watching.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 01:29:43 PM
SERIOUS cloud-to-ground lightning with this line coming through Nashville right now.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: c_phillips on March 09, 2019, 01:36:11 PM
Storms near Senatobia and Ripley, MS bear watching.

The storm near Falkner, MS should have a warning based on what I am seeing.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: bugalou on March 09, 2019, 01:41:42 PM
I don't see the atmosphere recovering for any additional tornado threats for extreme west TN unless things clear our rapidly and we get some sunshine.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 01:44:34 PM
I don't see the atmosphere recovering for any additional tornado threats for extreme west TN unless things clear our rapidly and we get some sunshine.

I don't see anything major happening for TN in general now with this huge precip shield that's developed. Slight risk at best.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 01:48:49 PM
Yeah- the atmosphere is getting worked over good with convection exploding all over the place. I would say localized flooding may become more the concern.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: NashRugger on March 09, 2019, 01:50:07 PM
I'd honestly watch the area from just west of STL into central IL because we're clearing rapidly and we could destabilize just enough. Turning with height is pretty **** great and this could be an ideal low-CAPE/high shear event.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 01:50:47 PM
New Watch coming??

[attachimg=1]

Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 0172
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

   Areas affected...eastern Arkansas...northern Mississippi...western
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 13...

   Valid 091927Z - 092130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 13 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts remain possible
   across the region this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A large area of rain and thunderstorms extends from a
   warm advection zone across the Ohio Valley southwestward into the
   lower MS Valley along a cold front. As a result of the widespread
   precipitation, little if any further destabilization is expected
   north of the MS/TN border, while to the south, upstream heating is
   allowing a gradual increase in temperatures across LA, MS and AL.

   VAD winds from the region confirm strong to extreme shear profiles
   with effective SRH values of 500-600 m2/s2 common ahead of the cold
   front and across the Enhanced Risk area (MS into TN/KY).

   Possible areas for supercell and tornado development include:
   1) Storms moving out of southeast AR into northern MS, in closer
   proximity to warmer surface air mass yet still in a high-shear
   environment.
   2) Storms moving out of southeast MO and into western KY and
   southern IL, where the surface air mass is relatively cool but in a
   zone of better large-scale lift ahead of the upper vorticity max.
   3) Evolving out of the northeast-southwest oriented lines of storms
   currently over northern MS, which will move into middle TN and
   northern AL later today, in concert with ever-increasing low-level
   wind shear.

   ..Jewell.. 03/09/2019/quote]
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: StormNine on March 09, 2019, 01:52:21 PM
There are two rotating storms in N MS that are worth a watch.  One west of Corinth and one west of Holly Springs.  Other than that it is a slop fest.  The best jet dynamics are just too far away from the best instability.   
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 09, 2019, 01:57:17 PM
Heavy Rain, Wind and Lightning as to be expected.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 02:11:57 PM
New Day 1 Update:

Quote
SPC AC 091958

   Day 1 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

   Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening, from the
   Mississippi Delta region through portions of the lower Ohio and
   Tennessee Valleys. This will include potential for a couple of
   strong tornadoes, particularly across parts of northern Mississippi
   into middle Tennessee and northwestern Alabama, in addition to the
   risk for severe wind gusts and hail.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...
   Considerable adjustments have been made, largely to account for the
   continuing progression of synoptic and sub-synoptic features. 

   The base of the rapidly moving negatively-tilted short wave trough,
   now approaching the lower Ohio Valley, is forecast to begin pivoting
   northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes/Allegheny Plateau region
   through this evening.  As it does, stronger mid/upper forcing for
   large-scale ascent appears likely to become increasingly displaced
   from the unstable portion of the cyclone's warm sector, now
   generally confined to a plume of moist return flow across the
   northwest Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
   Valley.

   As the deep surface low center migrates from northwestern Missouri
   toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, there remains some
   potential for warm sector boundary layer destabilization across and
   north of the lower Ohio River by this evening, in the wake of the
   extensive ongoing convective development.  However, the extent to
   which this will become support of severe weather potential in the
   presence of strong shear remains uncertain, particularly with
   northward extent to the north of the Ohio River.

   The primary severe weather potential now seems increasingly focused
   across parts of northern Mississippi into portions of southern
   Middle Tennessee and northwest Alabama through early evening.  This
   is on the southern-most periphery of the stronger mid-level forcing,
   where the boundary layer has become weak to moderately unstable in
   the presence of low-level hodographs which are becoming very large
   and clockwise curved.  This environment appears supportive of
   discrete supercell storms which may become capable of producing a
   few tornadoes, a couple perhaps strong.  For further details on this
   region, please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion 172.

   ..Kerr.. 03/09/2019/quote]
Title: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 02:14:05 PM
TOR Hardin and McNairy.

New tornado watch just issued to include Middle TN.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: StormNine on March 09, 2019, 02:23:55 PM
The storm behind it in N MS really needs to be watched as well.   
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 02:25:47 PM
"Several tornadoes likely" used in the watch description. Why am I not seeing this?

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 02:28:05 PM
Perfect timing. Radarscope is having issues.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 02:28:38 PM
The storm behind it in N MS really needs to be watched as well.

Itís now warned.


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Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 09, 2019, 02:32:54 PM
[attachimg=1]Strong rotation on the southern storm around Corinth Ms
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 02:33:34 PM
Yeah seems like the network of region radars are 45 minutes behind. Warnings are showing up.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 02:37:09 PM
(Attachment Link) Strong rotation on the southern storm around Corinth Ms

Wow, that is a very strong couplet.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Susan on March 09, 2019, 02:40:15 PM
Why am I not seeing this?

Because you think sunshine and heat are required for tornadoes to develop.  They don't.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Beth on March 09, 2019, 02:41:17 PM
Wind is really picking up here now. Had been calm even during tstorms.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 09, 2019, 02:51:50 PM
Wow, that is a very strong couplet.
Confirmed touchdown with this one.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Curt on March 09, 2019, 02:53:45 PM
Thatís going through Big Hill Pond State Park- best kept secret in TN as far as state park systems go. Itís incredibly rural, rocky, and loaded with deer.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 03:00:05 PM
Because you think sunshine and heat are required for tornadoes to develop.  They don't.

Not even close. I'm well aware of the ingredients. Lots of crapvection today...that's why I haven't really been seeing much of a threat here in Middle TN.

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 03:25:59 PM
TOR just south and east of Huntsville currently.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 03:34:35 PM
Iím curious to see if this second supercell coming out of Hardin County can sustain itself longer into southern middle TN.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Lcwthrnut on March 09, 2019, 03:37:32 PM
Iím curious to see if this second supercell coming out of Hardin County can sustain itself longer into southern middle TN.

In the warning it says a tornado is on the ground now... spotters confirmed.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 03:38:20 PM
What are yíall using for radar? RadarScope is kaputz
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 03:38:58 PM
What are yíall using for radar? RadarScope is kaputz

Iím using the various NWS radars.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: cliftown04 on March 09, 2019, 03:41:09 PM
I am located on the Wayne co. Hardin Co. border also known as no man's land when it comes to radar coverage and t.v. coverage. I have been watching Weather Nation and they have actually done a fairly good job being on top of the tornado warned cells.  The last cell lost its severe parameters but dropped 0.97 inches in around 15 minutes!  I'm continuing to keep an eye on the storms still developing back to the southwest.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 03:42:43 PM
RadarScope is back up


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Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: c_phillips on March 09, 2019, 03:43:06 PM
In the warning it says a tornado is on the ground now... spotters confirmed.

The cell in western Hardin Co. is showing signs of rotating now.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Farris_TN on March 09, 2019, 03:45:25 PM
RadarScope is back up


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My radar on RadarScope is still not working. The base reflectivity worked for about 2 scans but is out again. Bad timing for this cause I love on these days.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 03:52:07 PM
This break in the action might be just the fuel needed to ramp things up.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Hank W on March 09, 2019, 03:55:36 PM
Will be interesting to watch the line approach areas of Eastern MS and NW AL this evening as they've had a pretty decent break in crapvection.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 03:56:12 PM
Those cells west of Nashville are starting to look rather interesting
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: c_phillips on March 09, 2019, 03:57:19 PM
This break in the action might be just the fuel needed to ramp things up.

I noticed it being a bit brighter outside my window and took a peak at the vis sat. It is showing an area of clearing in NE MS and NW AL.

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 04:08:15 PM
Another rotating storm taking almost the same track as the last two through NE MS.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 04:27:12 PM
My radar on RadarScope is still not working. The base reflectivity worked for about 2 scans but is out again. Bad timing for this cause I love on these days.

Yeah- it was briefly current, but now stale again.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Beth on March 09, 2019, 04:35:03 PM
My radarscope is working but it takes a while to load up. I am on the app on Ipad.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Flash on March 09, 2019, 04:36:22 PM
Near Mount Pleasant. Watching that one cell with 0.75" hail (radar indicated) comin' out me in about 20. Hopin' it holds together.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: wfrogge on March 09, 2019, 05:02:49 PM
My radarscope is working but it takes a while to load up. I am on the app on Ipad.

Its down for the super-res products use NOAA for the radar feed and base products for now
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: MSR041933 on March 09, 2019, 05:03:43 PM
Storms riding MS/TN state line look to be packing a punch but no warnings
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Curt on March 09, 2019, 05:04:49 PM
Clear skies with sun here.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: JayCee on March 09, 2019, 05:15:24 PM
I'm seeing evidence of Tennessee's micro-climates this evening, as I'm at 55 about 10 miles northeast of Sevierville, while the small airport at Sevierville records 70.   And as I type this, the temperature at my location has risen from 55 to 60.  And it's still rising.  Talk about freaky weather.   
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 05:19:37 PM
TOR warned cells down in MS look problematic.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 09, 2019, 05:22:15 PM
This line coming through most of Middle TN might not even produce an SVR. Unreal.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 09, 2019, 06:19:14 PM
I'm seeing evidence of Tennessee's micro-climates this evening, as I'm at 55 about 10 miles northeast of Sevierville, while the small airport at Sevierville records 70.   And as I type this, the temperature at my location has risen from 55 to 60.  And it's still rising.  Talk about freaky weather.
Wow. Iím still at 56 here with crazy heavy rain and wind.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: WXHD on March 09, 2019, 06:26:57 PM
The sky is distinctly purple here with rain.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 09, 2019, 06:28:19 PM
The sky is distinctly purple here with rain.

The hue is fitting as we near the Ides of March.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: StormNine on March 09, 2019, 06:46:22 PM
It is starting to look like that Middle TN is having about as much luck with severe weather to start off 2019 as it had with winter weather this past winter.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 06:47:36 PM
It is starting to look like that Middle TN is having about as much luck with severe weather to start off 2019 as it had with winter weather this past winter.

And Iíll gladly take it! 😂
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: NismoWx on March 09, 2019, 07:03:21 PM
Wasn't expecting that... (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190310/3ec7f7bd32fa7d691bcd98ab392d1f52.jpg)

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Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Flash on March 09, 2019, 07:05:01 PM
This line coming through most of Middle TN might not even produce an SVR. Unreal.

Outcome isn't surprising. We'll likely need to be in a moderate or high risk to see enhanced results.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: NashRugger on March 09, 2019, 07:05:58 PM
5 west of the Boro and moving northeast is the exact same position of the warning from the good Friday EF4, just a note.

There are 2 separate areas of rotation, one near Florence and the tornado-warned rotation over Blackman.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 07:18:02 PM
Storms suddenly got interesting as they got east of I-65.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: JHart on March 09, 2019, 07:21:35 PM
We just had about thirty seconds of moderate, but omnidirectional, wind with torrential rain out here off Cainesville Pike.  The peak wind gust was 22 mph.

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 07:23:27 PM
We are pushing thirty inches of rain for the year so far.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Jilly on March 09, 2019, 07:26:42 PM
Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
724 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

TNC015-149-189-100134-
/O.EXP.KOHX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190310T0130Z/
Rutherford TN-Wilson TN-Cannon TN-
724 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...SOUTHEASTERN
WILSON AND NORTHWESTERN CANNON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM CST...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, damaging winds remain likely and a Severe
Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3606 8612 3587 8599 3582 8632 3595 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 251DEG 41KT 3594 8614

$$

Shamburger
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: c_phillips on March 09, 2019, 07:27:21 PM
Can anyone explain the southwest moving radar returns between Centerville and Lexington?
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 07:28:33 PM
We just had about thirty seconds of moderate, but omnidirectional, wind with torrential rain out here off Cainesville Pike.  The peak wind gust was 22 mph.

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 07:23:27 PM
We are pushing thirty inches of rain for the year so far.

Wow- and barely into March.

I suspect some all time annual rainfall records are going to fall this year.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: NashRugger on March 09, 2019, 07:36:42 PM
Tracing the core of the circulation on velocity, it was nearly dead centerline of the Good Friday EF4 but not even 1/8 of a mile northwest of it across that side of the city. Remarkable that it wasn't any stronger or else we'd have a bad situation right now.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: JHart on March 09, 2019, 07:39:27 PM
Wow- and barely into March.

I suspect some all time annual rainfall records are going to fall this year.

Our rain gauge shows 2.86 inches of rain from this system, with 29.20 inches cumulative since January 1.

The record annual rainfall for Nashville is 70.12 inches, set in 1979.  Unless things change drastically, we have a good chance to at least scare the crap out of it this year.  ::drowning::


Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2019, 08:07:18 PM
So...this line decides to get its act together EAST of I-65, which no model showed whatsoever.

Meteorology...::shrug::
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: NismoWx on March 09, 2019, 08:11:00 PM
Tracing the core of the circulation on velocity, it was nearly dead centerline of the Good Friday EF4 but not even 1/8 of a mile northwest of it across that side of the city. Remarkable that it wasn't any stronger or else we'd have a bad situation right now.
I was sitting at Fulin's in Murfreesboro when the TOR Warning dropped. 50 cell phones went off and everyone acted like nothing was happening. I had been watching the storm on RS and just told my girlfriend that it was beginning to rotate, then about 60sec later the warning came out. Nonetheless, we have a serious problem with the public taking warnings seriously.

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Title: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2019, 08:11:10 PM
Skies are clearing here... stars are out.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Eric on March 09, 2019, 08:11:24 PM
I give up.  This thing performed about as expected for the area then we get a TOR warning.  Two LSRs: tree down in Browns Mill and power lines down across 231. 
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: NismoWx on March 09, 2019, 08:21:01 PM
I give up.  This thing performed about as expected for the area then we get a TOR warning.  Two LSRs: tree down in Browns Mill and power lines down across 231.
Where along 231? We just came up from Thompson to Jefferson, no problem.

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Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Eric on March 09, 2019, 08:30:56 PM
Where along 231? We just came up from Thompson to Jefferson, no problem.

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LSR said 4 S of Murfreesboro, but distance was estimated.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: NismoWx on March 09, 2019, 08:37:42 PM
LSR said 4 S of Murfreesboro, but distance was estimated.
Oh, South side.

What a strange evening.





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Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 09, 2019, 09:10:35 PM
This is nothing new, we have had storms for years. It has not been until recent years where every event is sensationalized by the media, public and long list of others. Its not by fault, its just that this has been the outcome of society and how we do things. If a couple stray over performers cause some grief, it may be better than the public not listening when it comes to a High threat or PDS.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 07:03:43 AM
Wow. Iím still at 56 here with crazy heavy rain and wind.

We actually had a pleasant day here yesterday.  Very little wind, and partial sunshine by afternoon thanks to downsloping.  I recorded nearly an inch of rain overnight, but skies are clear this morning with a beautiful, sunny day on tap near 70!   

Post Merge: March 10, 2019, 07:12:52 AM
Wow- and barely into March.

I suspect some all time annual rainfall records are going to fall this year.

Many locations may see their all-time annual precipitation records broken for the third time this decade.  That is unreal and something that hasn't happened since record keeping began. 
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: bugalou on March 10, 2019, 02:34:47 PM
Memphis got lucky with this system. The best dynamics pushed through just before peak afternoon heating.  Some super cells popped but not violently and rapidly needed for Tornadoes and there was a lot of half hearted junk convection. Another 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and I think we would have seen several tornadoes.

All the said flooding is going to start getting crazy in this pattern as we move towards spring.  None of the reservoirs in northern MS got anywhere near there winter pools.  ::drowning::
Title: Re: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 10, 2019, 03:47:03 PM
Memphis got lucky with this system. The best dynamics pushed through just before peak afternoon heating.  Some super cells popped but not violently and rapidly needed for Tornadoes and there was a lot of half hearted junk convection. Another 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and I think we would have seen several tornadoes.

All the said flooding is going to start getting crazy in this pattern as we move towards spring.  None of the reservoirs in northern MS got anywhere near there winter pools.  ::drowning::

Another 500-1000 j/kg and it would have been a tornado outbreak, without doubt. I donít use the term ďoutbreakĒ all too often.