Post by: Thundersnow on February 24, 2019, 02:51:13 PM
Kinda hoping for a dry stretch at some point.
(No particular reason to put this in the Severe forum, other than that’s where we traditionally put the spring thread.)
Post by: Uncle Nasty on February 24, 2019, 03:38:46 PM
Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk
Post by: WXHD on February 24, 2019, 07:14:45 PM
Post by: JayCee on February 25, 2019, 02:40:16 PM
One thing I highly recommend for the coming spring is mosquito repellent. They'll be feasting on us this year.
Post by: BRUCE on February 25, 2019, 02:56:41 PM
March into early April ... looks active stormy ...
Post by: StormNine on February 25, 2019, 04:22:21 PM
Looks like the CFS model. Mid to long range toolsniff patterns is firing severe wx second half
March into early April ... looks active stormy ...
If there is a -PNA I might score a winter threat during the 5 or so days I am in Utah right at the end of March/beginning of April.
Post by: Beth on February 26, 2019, 02:30:49 PM
Post by: JayCee on February 26, 2019, 02:36:59 PM
I am staying in this thread! Staying away from the winter one! I want this weather today till summer arrives. Please, no more snow and no more rain! 😎😎😎😎😎
Probably the sanest choice. The winter thread will make you go cray cray. ::cliff::
Post by: BRUCE on February 26, 2019, 06:44:30 PM
Post Merge: February 26, 2019, 07:59:06 PM
Accuweather predicting 525 tornadoes 🌪 from first March to the end may this spring ...I know. Accuweather ... lol
Post by: Crockett on February 26, 2019, 10:07:16 PM
That post was made days ago... when gfs was showing a threat .... course it has changed big time since .... lol
Post Merge: February 26, 2019, 07:59:06 PM
Accuweather predicting 525 tornadoes 🌪 from first March to the end may this spring ...I know. Accuweather ... lol
How in the name of fuh can Accuweather even make a prediction about the number of tornadoes with a straight face? Just another reason why friends don't let their weather un-savvy friends download the Accuweather app.
Post by: schneitzeit on February 26, 2019, 10:12:19 PM
Post by: StormNine on February 27, 2019, 04:36:11 AM
https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-03-27-april-may-june-tornadoes-peak-months
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2019, 05:21:02 AM
525 tornadoes in the USA during that timeframe is actually pretty close to average. It sounds like a lot but it is pretty much a more hyped way of saying an average spring severe weather season. Our March-May average in the USA is 537.guess. We have been way below average last 3 years or so ... overall thinking is uptick to more threats this spring ... I’m liking the mid to late March pattern coming ... looking out long range stuff... guess this should been put in spring thread ... my bad. Lol
https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-03-27-april-may-june-tornadoes-peak-months
Post by: Charles L. on February 27, 2019, 05:52:23 AM
https://t.co/NVhYvqXc7k
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2019, 06:32:53 AM
It may or may not snow in the next 5-7 days. But the Euro, CMC, and GFS all say next week is gonna be brutally cold for this time of year. Anywhere from 15-25 degrees below average. Lows on a couple models approach single digits next Wed/Thurs. Highs near freezing. Brrrrrr!!!!!yeah without doubt at all cold is coming ..and pretty impressive for this time year ... but theme this winter appears when cold here she dries up ... guess it’s good thing since we’re dealing with river flooding etc... be nice sneak a winter event in last second .... though I’m ready for spring....
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Post by: JayCee on February 27, 2019, 06:47:30 AM
After a very mild winter with flooding rains, we're in for a bad biting bug summer. We may need something like this just to survive it:
https://www.amazon.com/Mosquito-Repellant-Netting-Insects-Activities/dp/B07FNRBJRZ/ref=asc_df_B07FNRBJRZ/?tag=bingshoppinga-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid={creative}&hvpos={adposition}&hvnetw=o&hvrand={random}&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=e&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl={devicemodel}&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=&hvtargid=pla-4584482455164448&psc=1 (https://www.amazon.com/Mosquito-Repellant-Netting-Insects-Activities/dp/B07FNRBJRZ/ref=asc_df_B07FNRBJRZ/?tag=bingshoppinga-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid={creative}&hvpos={adposition}&hvnetw=o&hvrand={random}&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=e&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl={devicemodel}&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=&hvtargid=pla-4584482455164448&psc=1)
Post by: schneitzeit on February 27, 2019, 10:57:36 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2019, 06:03:16 AM
FWIW, the SPC is highlighting an area of potential severe weather risk on Day 4 or Sunday... mainly south of TN.
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day4prob_20190228_1200.gif)
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2019, 06:18:23 AM
FWIW, the SPC is highlighting an area of potential severe weather risk on Day 4 or Sunday... mainly south of TN.this threat has kept creeping north each model run... potential dangerous day for centeral Alabama and Georgia and further south.. cape along that area 2000jewles ...another big system have eye on next weekend ...for severe wx and heavy rain...
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day4prob_20190228_1200.gif)
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2019, 08:13:34 AM
Post by: Flash on February 28, 2019, 08:59:15 AM
Post by: JayCee on February 28, 2019, 10:08:48 AM
Post by: dwagner88 on March 01, 2019, 06:40:44 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2019, 08:18:32 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2019, 08:21:53 AM
Post by: Eric on March 01, 2019, 08:22:30 AM
Sunday's risk has been suppressed further south, really central MS/AL to the coast.
Was just fixing to post this. ::coffee:: ::coffee::
Post by: cgauxknox on March 01, 2019, 08:30:51 AM
We are having downpours of heavy rain over here in the foothills. Seems to be much heavier than what the models were showing.Same for the valley this morning and we had more than they expected yesterday as well. Things have mostly cleared from last weekend but I have to wonder how much it will really take on Sunday to re-flood some of the most vulnerable places.
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2019, 05:19:06 PM
Edit: Actually, I forgot what I poured out this morning, so .93 was the total for the whole event.
Post by: collinsk on March 01, 2019, 08:36:31 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2019, 07:24:44 AM
I have a feeling we're not done with the flooding yet.
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2019, 01:13:20 PM
Post by: StormNine on March 02, 2019, 01:31:00 PM
One negative will be we could see too many storm systems and not have enough time for sufficient moisture return between them, but as we go into Late April and May that could spell a sequence event.
I do think we are not done with flooding yet either, unfortunately.
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2019, 02:13:45 PM
Not to get Bruce too excited but if we can keep the -PNA then I think we will have an above average severe weather season both locally and nationally. Remember we have an active subtropical jet and a warmer than average Gulf of Mexico/west Atlantic. If the PNA shots up to the + side then our chances of an active severe weather season do take a hit.yeah like we’re we heading ... for both eyes on it
One negative will be we could see too many storm systems and not have enough time for sufficient moisture return between them, but as we go into Late April and May that could spell a sequence event.
I do think we are not done with flooding yet either, unfortunately.
Post by: gcbama on March 02, 2019, 04:02:20 PM
12z euro. Spells trouble brewing next weekend ...agreed .....bruce you and i have both said for a few weeks that this will be a very active severe season....i still stand by it
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2019, 11:14:29 AM
We're having another day of moderate rain, and will probably see an inch or so here. Another round of possible heavy rain will occur next weekend. At this rate, flooding will last deep into spring.
Post by: dwagner88 on March 03, 2019, 01:26:19 PM
Post by: cliftown04 on March 03, 2019, 01:39:21 PM
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2019, 01:45:03 PM
Post by: wfrogge on March 03, 2019, 03:00:19 PM
Both gfs and euro painting a wicked severe threat next weekend ... pretty remarkable how fast we recover from couple days of very cold temps ... gfs painting some 2000 cape over large portion midsouth ... something to watch closely as we draw near the next weekend
Good thing ill be in Orlando :(
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2019, 03:29:42 PM
It just thrills me to report that the GFS is showing another long duration heavy rain event Fri-Sun. It also dramatically underestimated rainfall for today’s system.
Approaching an inch and a half here, and it's still pouring.
Post by: justinmundie on March 04, 2019, 06:20:43 AM
Post by: dwagner88 on March 04, 2019, 08:32:05 AM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 08:48:53 AM
Fun fact: if it continues to rain at the same rate that it has year to date, KCHA will get 128.82" of rain this year. ::drowning::
Yuck
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2019, 09:05:08 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2019, 09:23:32 AM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 09:35:21 AM
After yesterday. Severe wx can move on. Very sad so many hurt or killed from the tornadoes.
Too many lives cut short yesterday.
Increase awareness, increase awareness, increase awareness.
A possible benefit of my generation's addiction to smartphones is warning systems are much more penetrable. Sadly, many older folks don't know these storms are coming unless they have the TV on or a family member or friend called.
Post by: BRUCE on March 04, 2019, 10:40:19 AM
Post by: NismoWx on March 04, 2019, 11:37:40 AM
Too many lives cut short yesterday.The problem with that is that the general public has become immune to the warnings. They don't take them seriously because they are so used to forecasts busting. Then they want to claim that they had no warning, when the SPC has been highlighting that for at least 4 days prior.
Increase awareness, increase awareness, increase awareness.
A possible benefit of my generation's addiction to smartphones is warning systems are much more penetrable. Sadly, many older folks don't know these storms are coming unless they have the TV on or a family member or friend called.
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 12:22:20 PM
Post by: NismoWx on March 04, 2019, 01:32:11 PM
Very true. A major issue is that many people assume the cell must be in a different part of the county if a warning is issued. For example: a storm going over Fairview tracking NW to Davidson County will sound off the sirens all over Williamson County, even though only a tiny sliver of Williamson is under a threat of a tornado. People hear the sirens so often they become immune to them, like you said. When you've heard the sirens go off 50 times during tornado outbreaks and not one tornado has ever hit you, you're apt to brush it off.Part of the polygon problem is that nobody knows where they are anymore without a GPS, especially the generation we're rearing now. That's why James Spann is so effective in the Birmingham market... He knows where EVERYTHING is, and can relate that to the public. That's something the NWS will never be able to duplicate, so it's up to the broadcast Mets to do it. Nashville doesn't have anyone qualified to do that since Bill Hall (may he rest in peace!) and Lisa Patton retired.
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Post by: Eric on March 04, 2019, 03:06:55 PM
Part of the polygon problem is that nobody knows where they are anymore without a GPS, especially the generation we're rearing now. That's why James Spann is so effective in the Birmingham market... He knows where EVERYTHING is, and can relate that to the public. That's something the NWS will never be able to duplicate, so it's up to the broadcast Mets to do it. Nashville doesn't have anyone qualified to do that since Bill Hall (may he rest in peace!) and Lisa Patton retired.
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
That's why the Mets in Nashville need to get down to street-level with their coverage. Some do, but don't do it often/well enough to be effective. Our social media message has and always will be hyper-local weather info your area, but as social-mediasts, we can only do so much. I think Bree Smith mentioned Nashville serving a 66-county area and I can guarantee they don't know all the hollows and bluffs across they area. If the person receiving the info doesn't know where the area, then that's a them problem and not a "you" problem.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 04, 2019, 05:21:41 PM
Post by: NismoWx on March 04, 2019, 05:28:53 PM
That's why the Mets in Nashville need to get down to street-level with their coverage. Some do, but don't do it often/well enough to be effective. Our social media message has and always will be hyper-local weather info your area, but as social-mediasts, we can only do so much. I think Bree Smith mentioned Nashville serving a 66-county area and I can guarantee they don't know all the hollows and bluffs across they area. If the person receiving the info doesn't know where the area, then that's a them problem and not a "you" problem.Absolutely. At some point, they have to learn personal responsibility and accountability. Part of me is like, okay Darwinism at its finest, but the part of me that spent 10yrs in Fire/EMS trying to SAVE lives has a bigger grasp of my heart. At least I can say I tried.
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Post by: mamMATTus on March 04, 2019, 07:06:37 PM
Post by: Beth on March 04, 2019, 08:33:29 PM
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2019, 10:47:16 PM
Not thrilled with Saturday's threat looking nocturnal.
I think it’s just going to be a rain event. Models backing off any severe.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 10:59:52 PM
I think it’s just going to be a rain event. Models backing off any severe.We won't be getting any severe WX in Knoxville, but areas a few hundred miles south and west of us may. What models have you looked at that indicate they are backing off from the severe threat? I haven't seen any indication of this
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 05:35:45 AM
I think it’s just going to be a rain event. Models backing off any severe.last nights 0z euro actually ramped up the threat for severe wx late Saturday ...
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2019, 05:49:54 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day5prob_20190305_1200.gif)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2019, 08:14:55 AM
Quote
Greater severe risk may
therefore remain farther south, from east Texas/Louisiana across the
Lower Mississippi Valley region, and possibly into the central Gulf
Coast states late.
Euro equally not impressive for TN, specifically. But QLCS spinups always know how to ruin the party.
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 02:52:54 PM
Severe threat, at least for TN, looks minimal. There may be a strong storm or two, given the insane amount of wind shear the GFS is predicting (over 1200 m2s2 along the Tn River :o :o :o ). Can't rule out the possibility of a few QLCS spinups. Greatest shot at anything severe may be along the same areas that got hit this past weekend. SPC even alluded to it...12z euro says. If this system fail for severe weather here... we got another chance after this system ... looks ha e much much better warm sector ....
Euro equally not impressive for TN, specifically. But QLCS spinups always know how to ruin the party.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 05, 2019, 02:59:54 PM
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 03:04:19 PM
No offense, Bruce, but you are always saying there is a severe threat whenever any weekend is coming up.going by models dude... seriously ...I’m not making this up....lol
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2019, 03:29:35 PM
going by models dude... seriously ...I’m not making this up....lol
What day you looking at? 12z Euro goes out to next Friday and I'm having a hard time picking up on anything worth noting outside the TN Valley.
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 03:34:33 PM
What day you looking at? 12z Euro goes out to next Friday and I'm having a hard time picking up on anything worth noting outside the TN Valley.192 hr moving from west ...
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2019, 03:40:23 PM
12z GFS ain't having any of it, by the way.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 05, 2019, 04:16:30 PM
The GFS lights up the East TN Valley pretty well, which is kind of rare this early in the season. Temperatures will be on the lower side (high 50s-low 60s) but I wouldn't rule out the chance of strong thunderstorms. I expect intense rainfall and high winds in Knoxville when this reaches us.
What is the look for the rest of the South?
Post Merge: March 05, 2019, 04:18:56 PM
Any input from our Memphis posters on this weekend's possible severe outbreak would be appreciated. I have friends there who always ask me about severe weather threats, but I've been busy this week and haven't been watching the models like I normally do
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2019, 07:06:05 PM
Quote
Getting into the day Saturday, by 12Z, the upper trough axis
looks to be over the high Plains, and will quickly surge eastward
and develop a negative tilt as the axis is along the MO River
Valley by 00Z Sunday. This will keep the southeast with strong
southerly flow, especially in the low levels, and allow for
strong WAA and moisture advection bringing dewpoints into the
upper 50s across the area. Soundings show very strong shear, with
0-6km shear values around 50 to even 80 knots depending on which
model you choose. The instability is a bit on the low side,
however enough MUCAPE and especially shear values exist,
with the best area currently west of I-65. Low level helicity
values are also strong, and 0-1km shear is 40 knots or higher
between the models as well. With all of the shear present,
especially in the low levels, will definitely need to keep an eye
on the evolution of this system for late Saturday afternoon
through early Sunday morning for severe thunderstorm potential.
Models have been pretty consistent on timing so far, so when short
term models get to be within range, there will be more solutions
to contribute to confidence on storm potential and timing.
Not to mention hinting at another system next week...
Quote
Models diverge a bit on
solutions for Monday and Tuesday, however the GFS and ECMWF have
been pretty consistent showing another strong trough and
associated cold front for Wednesday/Wednesday night, which has the
potential to be another severe weather threat. But, that`s still
way out towards the end of the model runs, so a lot can change
over the coming week in regards to the evolution of next week`s
system.
Post by: WXHD on March 05, 2019, 08:32:36 PM
Post by: wfrogge on March 05, 2019, 08:41:15 PM
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 09:15:03 PM
Not sure what some of you are looking at but that’s ok. Negative tilt trof and a screaming low level jet to me are spelling possible trouble for the western part of the state. Yeah things could change but we can’t forecast based on that can we?I give up.... im just glad were heading toward a active severe spring finally
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2019, 09:31:18 PM
Bruce called the event two weeks ago and, I’m inclined to listen to him this time too.
How did that one work out for Tennessee?
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 10:06:49 PM
How did that one work out for Tennessee?sad...your area was quite. But my area had tornado warning plus other storms with rotation
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2019, 10:36:53 PM
sad...your area was quite. But my area had tornado warning plus other storms with rotation
Okay, let me rephrase. How did it perform relative to the hype?
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2019, 10:40:52 PM
I give up.... im just glad were heading toward a active severe spring finally
After a couple of buckles of brief warm air, this pattern goes right back to where it is now on both GEFS and EPS. Granted 15 degrees below normal looks different in mid to late March than now... but the overall pattern wants to migrate back to a central trough.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 05, 2019, 10:55:39 PM
[attachimg=1]
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2019, 11:28:38 PM
Bruce called the event two weeks ago and, I’m inclined to listen to him this time too.
Hardly but listen your heart out. Its going to rain in the next 20 days, watch and see....
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2019, 07:42:16 AM
Quote
In the meantime, widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to expand across a large area from eastern portions of the central
and southern Plains early Day 4, eastward/northeastward across the
Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through
Sunday morning. Given the strength of this system, and the
accompanying/strong kinematic field, risk for at least isolated
severe storms remains evident -- including potential for damaging
winds and some tornado risk. However, a primary limiting factor
appears likely to be limited CAPE (in part due to the widespread
convective development). As such, will maintain only 15% risk at
this time, though strength of this system and accompanying
deep-layer wind field warrants attention in future outlooks.
OHX:
Quote
As for the potential of strong to svr tstms Sat afternoon into
Sat night, latest SPC reasoning has almost all of mid state
expect Upper Cumberland Region in a 15% svr wx outlook for
this time period. Forecasted CAPE values presently will
potentially be a limiting factor, but given the strength of this
system, it is certainly not out of the question that some strong
tstms to a few svr tstms could be possible. Will highlight this
possibility in the morning HWO issuance. Again, this potential
system the result of a strong sfc low developing across the cntrl
plains by Sat morning with a sfc frontal system draped across the
deep south. This strong sfc low will move quickly into the cntrl
Great Lakes Region by Sun morning, dragging a strong cold front
across the mid state region. A negatively tilted significant upper
level trough will develop across the cntrl U.S in association
with a strong upper level low pressure system across the northern
plains supporting pronounced swly upper level flow. This upper
level low will become stacked vertically quite close to the sfc
low by Sun morning also, moving that pronounced upper level
troughing right across the mid state region too. This type of
synoptic setup generally brings at least an organized line of
tstms thru the mid state region.
BMX:
Quote
A more significant trough is expected to move across the
Intermountain West & eject into the Plains on Saturday. Given
ongoing return flow across the Southern Plains & lower Mississippi
River Valley (MRV), the more amplified trough will quickly establish
downstream height rises as theta-e advection ramps up along an
intensifying low-level jet (LLJ) west of the MRV. As a result, a
broad area of convective weather is expected to develop to our west
near the ArkLaTex & quickly move eastward as a transient shortwave
rotates around the primary trough axis undergoing negative tilt.
Thereafter, the ongoing thunderstorm activity is expected to move
along an associated surface front & LLJ axis & enter the western
portions of our forecast area as early as late Saturday afternoon.
Given the forecast intensity of the LLJ (40-60 kts at 850mb),
increased moisture & instability availability, as well westerly deep-
layer shear vectors of ~40-60 kts, any complex of thunderstorms will
maintain possible severe characteristics as they quickly move
eastward. Despite losing diabatic heating, overnight SBCAPE values
of 250-750 J/kg will be plenty considering the large scale deep-
layer forcing & ample kinetic wind energy with this system.
Therefore, will continue to advertise a Slight Risk across the
entire CWA as damaging winds & tornadoes are possible given forecast
hodograph curvatures & 0-3 km SRH values as high as 450-600 m2/s2.
Felt this was the plan of action for now & will be able to fine-tune
the severe risk area as we get closer to the event. Timing will
still be generally advertised as Saturday & Saturday night (&
possibly into Sunday morning), though changes to this will be
sharpened in that coming days also.
JAN:
Quote
Confidence continues to increase that a least a portion of the Lower
MS River Valley will be impacted by severe weather on Saturday as a
powerful storm system swings across the country. An upper trough
will cross the Rockies Friday night, becoming closed and negatively
tilted as it begins to approach the MS River Valley on Saturday.
Southerly flow will further increase across our region ahead of this
feature, pulling more moist, unstable air into the region from the
tropics. Although the region will remain removed from the main
surface low and the better upper level height falls, there should
still be enough forcing, especially in the north, to support severe
weather. Impressive 0-6 km shear values ranging between 50-70 kts
and MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 j/kg will help support a severe
weather risk further south into the ArkLaMiss. Looking at the latest
CIPs Analog guidance, each of the top 8 analogs for Saturday support
severe weather in or near our region. The main threats to our region
on Saturday will be damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. These threats
will be advertised by a slight risk in our latest HWO.
Meh. Not impressed. Again, there will undoubtedly be some warnings along the line due to the amount of wind shear that'll be bantering about. Given the 2-3" of additional rainfall, downed trees may become an issue. ::coffee::
Post by: JayCee on March 06, 2019, 08:33:18 AM
0Z GFS at the end of its run has a '93 Superstorm rerun... ::rofl::
(Attachment Link)
I looked back at that run. Wow, that really was almost a carbon-copy of that event. It disappeared this morning. . .
Post by: BRUCE on March 06, 2019, 09:10:42 AM
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2019, 10:28:26 AM
12znam coming in hot... ::coffee::
If the warm sector can establish itself before crapvection overtakes it, there could be an improved parameter space W of the TN River. Still not seeing an established TOR threat, though. See what the NAM3 does with it later tonight.
Post by: mamMATTus on March 06, 2019, 11:53:52 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 06, 2019, 01:54:05 PM
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2019, 08:45:35 PM
For now, I am thinking a weakening QLCS with some severe threat with the worst of the threat centered in Southern Arkansas, but if the NAM were to verify we would be facing a greater magnitude threat. Still got plenty of time to watch it.
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 07:03:36 AM
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 07:15:19 AM
Post by: dwagner88 on March 07, 2019, 07:42:13 AM
No end in sight of the wet times according to the 6Z GFS. It puts most of middle and east TN in the bulls-eye of additional heavy rainfall with more than 5" possible over the next 10 days.00Z Euro has 4-5" here just by Monday morning. I didn't go any further than that.
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 08:05:24 AM
00Z Euro has 4-5" here just by Monday morning. I didn't go any further than that.
I don't think I can remember such a long, extremely wet pattern as this one has been. It actually started after our mini-drought ended in early 2017. We've had two wet summers back to back ('17 & '18), and since October we've been consistently well-above normal in rainfall. At some point, the pendulum has to swing back the other way, but I don't see that happening anytime soon. Hopefully, it won't swing as far to dry as we've been wet, or we'll have two+ years of extreme drought.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 07, 2019, 08:29:17 AM
Cold weather keeps us safe from precip these days. When it turns colder, that's a guarantee to halt the wet pattern. (tic)
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 08:35:58 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 10:46:17 AM
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 12:20:34 PM
Post by: StormNine on March 07, 2019, 12:29:39 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 01:42:40 PM
That middle of the week system looks to be quite the concerning flood/severe weather double threat.
Very much so. Low pressure heads off into the Great Lakes, leaving the cold front to stall right over the middle of TN with a southwest flow paralleling the front. Looks like waves of very heavy rain and strong storms for multiple days. Scary, considering how high the lakes and rivers are now, and our saturated ground. Recipe for disaster.
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 01:47:13 PM
Post Merge: March 07, 2019, 03:03:45 PM
Interesting afd from Little Rock disscusion just updated. ... tried pasting main part ... but didn’t work lol
Post by: memphishogfan on March 07, 2019, 03:28:06 PM
(https://i1.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2019030712_057_35.79--90.18.png)
Now back to reality that this won't happen and it will be 58 and rain saturday here in NEA.
Post Merge: March 07, 2019, 03:36:22 PM
I do find it funny that the models had that exact look for my area 3 days out two weeks ago. Ended up being nothing close to that.
Post by: justinmundie on March 07, 2019, 05:32:37 PM
System mid next week looking like a multiple day severe outbreak potential for sure ...
Post Merge: March 07, 2019, 03:03:45 PM
Interesting afd from Little Rock disscusion just updated. ... tried pasting main part ... but didn’t work lol
That’s what it looks like to me as well, especially down in central ms and Alabama. Broad trough with multiple pieces of energy rounding the base and a solid warm sector.
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 05:43:33 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2019, 04:19:06 AM
Post by: Curt on March 08, 2019, 07:06:00 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1552040278306)
Meg has a great handle on this- very conditional. Shear is plentiful- instability may not line up with with best dynamics. Could be explosive discrete development in the enhanced areas- or maybe nothing at all. Maybe today will shed more light with instability recovery.
Post by: dwagner88 on March 08, 2019, 07:31:31 AM
EDIT: above amounts are only for this weekend. All models agree on even more heavy rain next week.
Post by: Flash on March 08, 2019, 07:36:38 AM
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 08:11:07 AM
Meg has a great handle on this- very conditional. Shear is plentiful- instability may not line up with with best dynamics. Could be explosive discrete development in the enhanced areas- or maybe nothing at all. Maybe today will shed more light with instability recovery.
Evidenced perfectly by the CIPS analogs. Some have severe reports, others have squadoosh.
(http://i67.tinypic.com/29wwmzk.png)
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 11:41:45 AM
Post by: Curt on March 08, 2019, 11:43:15 AM
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 11:43:38 AM
Enhanced risk got expanded north....
(http://i65.tinypic.com/2u7t5zc.jpg)
Quote
...Eastern OK/TX into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys...
Complicated forecast scenario exists for Saturday morning into
afternoon across the region. An intense shortwave trough located
over the southern Plains Saturday morning will quickly eject
northeast toward the mid-MS Valley region by 00z. As this occurs,
subsidence on the back side of the wave and midlevel dry-slot will
move over portions of the lower MS Valley region, perhaps limiting
convective development from midday into the afternoon. Additionally,
stronger forcing for ascent will quickly shift northeast toward the
mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys by midday. Additionally, widespread showers
and thunderstorms, will be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across much of the warm sector. Some strong to severe storms are
possible early from far eastern OK/TX, spreading east/northeast
through the morning. As such, several flies in the ointment exist
regarding where the greater severe threat will materialize.
Given expected ongoing convection and widespread cloud cover across
the warm sector, destabilization will be limited to generally 1000
J/kg or less, with the axis of greatest instability expected from
late morning into early afternoon across the MS River Delta region
of eastern AR into far northwest MS/western TN and the MO
Bootheel/far western KY vicinity, and the Enhanced risk area has
been focused in this corridor. With the shortwave expected to
quickly eject northeastward, stronger forcing for ascent is expected
to exist further north than previously forecast. As such, a more
isolated to widely scattered severe threat is expected across much
of east TX into MS, and severe probs have been shifted northward to
reflect this.
Guidance continues to suggest a couple of waves of severe storms are
possible. The initial morning convection associated with the strong
low level jet and warm advection regime is expected to move across
much of the lower MS Valley by midday. Guidance then suggests
another round of convection will develop along the cold front during
the afternoon from southern MO into northern AR, and perhaps more
isolated development further south into northern AR and central MS.
This semi-discrete convection will have the potential for damaging
winds, hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon hours. Some
upscale growth into bowing line segments is expected with eastward
extent into the lower OH and TN Valley late in the afternoon and
evening hours.
Sounds much more like a response to data suggesting a damaging wind threat than anything else. Have to watch anything that barks ahead of the main line across MS.
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 11:50:45 AM
Post by: StormNine on March 08, 2019, 01:24:14 PM
Quote
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 10% - Enhanced
Wind: 30% - Enhanced
Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced
That is the one for tomorrow's event. This provides more insight into what the SPC is thinking about when it comes to hazards.
Post by: memphishogfan on March 08, 2019, 02:24:53 PM
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 03:28:26 PM
Quote
Location of the upper low has moved further southeast slightly,
but models have it a bit weaker as well. The trough will still be
largely negatively tilted by 00Z Sunday, with the axis over the
northern MS River Valley in the upper Midwest. The 850 mb LLJ
remains strong, with 50-70 knots out of the SSW ahead of the main
band of showers and thunderstorms. Severe parameters have not
changed much from previous runs except for the MUCAPE values have
decreased slightly as you go east of I-65. SPC has backed up the
slight risk to the west, however, it still remains for the I-65
corridor and west for tomorrow. Instability does fall off rapidly
after 00Z, so the severe threat may be limited to just a few hours
after sunset. Wind shear remains strong, both for 0-6km deep
layer shear at 50-80 knots and 0-1 km shear 40 to 50 knots. 0-3km
helicity is holding at 300-600 m2/s2, and evident in hodographs
per model soundings showing strong curvature in the low levels.
The main threats remain damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, some
hail, and flash flooding with any heavy rain during short time
periods.
Concerns/limitations for this event remain in place as mentioned
in yesterday's discussion. First, there may be 2 main bands of
showers and thunderstorms suggested by some CAM guidance, with
the question of how much of the atmosphere will be worked over by
the first round and limiting the second round. Morning showers
before the better instability moves in during the afternoon may
work over the area a bit, and could decrease the coverage of
strong to severe thunderstorms. Second, many soundings show a
stable shallow boundary layer, which may result in elevated
instability and may decrease the overall severe threat. Storms
that are rooted with surface instability will have much higher
chances for stronger winds reaching the surface, as well as the
potential for tornadic development. However, with the strong shear
in place, strong LLJ, and decent instability during the afternoon
and evening, both rounds of showers and thunderstorms will have
the potential for severe thunderstorms before the environment
weakens later in the evening.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2019, 04:11:56 PM
Quote
As the warm front surges north by 15Z. A second round of
thunderstorm activity will begin to push in from the west ahead of
a pre-frontal trof. This activity will quickly push east into
Middle Tennessee by midday as a third round of thunderstorm
activity will develop along the cold front. This activity will
push across the CWA during the late afternoon into the early
afternoon hours. This third round of activity is the one of most
concern as it will occur with the best instability. There have
been concerns that the potent shortwave would lift off to the
northeast before this convection would develop. The latest 18Z NAM
shows that the shortwave will be passing through the region just
as these thunderstorms will be developing. The Enhanced Risk has
been pushed to the north to align with the stronger forcing for
ascent than the previous DAY 2 issued early this morning. Greatest area
of concern for severe thunderstorms with the possibility of
tornadoes will be across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel
into Northwest Tennessee. South of this area, there remains
questions on how far removed from the forcing will the
thunderstorms still be able to become severe. The 12Z NSSL WRF
and 12Z HRRR show a vigorous line tracking across North
Mississippi while other CAM models show limited development south
of Interstate 40. Thus a lot of questions remain about tomorrow
and a lot it just comes down to timing of the shortwave. Stay
tuned for forecasts updates with the latest information.
Post by: dwagner88 on March 08, 2019, 04:25:36 PM
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 06:13:39 PM
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 06:20:58 PM
Each run of the hrrr is looking more almarming for tomorrow . Here done great job in the event last weekend ...
For once, I'd love for you to give specifics and not abstract postings. Not everyone has the time to look at the model sites. I know I don't.
Post by: Curt on March 08, 2019, 06:23:21 PM
For once, I'd love for you to give specifics and not abstract postings. Not everyone has the time to look at the model sites. I know I don't.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/a1eb95c164d3a7343ad72f42e53ea1d8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/ccaccd5af41ce2f5c82dc64e54eda96e.jpg)
That’s the extended HRR- and we know it can be fickle. Simulated radar tomorrow afternoon plus cape. It hasn’t even hit the short term more reliable HRR yet
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 06:27:58 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/a1eb95c164d3a7343ad72f42e53ea1d8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/ccaccd5af41ce2f5c82dc64e54eda96e.jpg)
That’s the extended HRR- and we know it can be fickle. Simulated radar tomorrow afternoon plus cape. It hasn’t even hit the short term more reliable HRR yet
Verbatim, I'd be concerned with those "tail end Charlie's". The embedded convection doesn't concern me too much.
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 06:29:18 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/a1eb95c164d3a7343ad72f42e53ea1d8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/ccaccd5af41ce2f5c82dc64e54eda96e.jpg)thanks. Helping me curt. Couldn’t post image ... dang it
That’s the extended HRR- and we know it can be fickle. Simulated radar tomorrow afternoon plus cape. It hasn’t even hit the short term more reliable HRR yet
Post by: StormNine on March 08, 2019, 06:34:14 PM
Post by: gcbama on March 08, 2019, 08:15:03 PM
Post Merge: March 08, 2019, 08:16:12 PM
on a side note I honestly cannot remember the last time we had a significant threat without a rain shield prior to the event which hampers the entire event
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 08:27:23 PM
again like the last event, don't see it being much of a tornadic threat here....west of tn river and south into Mississippi is what I am thinkinghrrr really want to recover the atmosphere quite nicely for latter in afternoon ... hrrr been on a roll lately
Post Merge: March 08, 2019, 08:16:12 PM
on a side note I honestly cannot remember the last time we had a significant threat without a rain shield prior to the event which hampers the entire event
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2019, 09:42:44 PM
Post by: Lcwthrnut on March 08, 2019, 10:22:24 PM
Post by: memphishogfan on March 08, 2019, 10:53:35 PM
Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 12:02:40 AM
Huge change tonight
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1552111268956)
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1552111334477)
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif?1552111403821)
Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 12:13:54 AM
Quote
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHEAST MS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through
the early evening. A strong tornado is possible from the confluence
of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern
Mississippi and northwest Alabama.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move
from the central/southern Great Plains to the lower MO Valley by mid
afternoon and subsequently into the Great Lakes after dark. An
intense 90kt 500mb speed max will translate east-northeast from OK
into the lower OH Valley by early evening. In the low levels, a
surface low will develop northeast from central KS to the IA/IL/MO
border by 6pm and into the central Great Lakes overnight. A warm
front over the Mid South will advance northward into the lower OH
Valley by peak heating and a composite dryline/Pacific front will
arc south-southeast from the low into eastern AR and southwestward
into east TX by mid afternoon before sweeping east across the OH
Valley late.
...Eastern OK/TX into the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys...
A complex forecast scenario with associated uncertainty
appropriately describes the risk for severe thunderstorms and
possible tornadoes across portions of the Mid South into the lower
OH Valley today. At the start of the period, a couple of clusters
of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across western
portions of the larger-risk area in parts of northeast TX into
eastern OK/western AR. Varying possible solutions are evident in
model data whether all or parts of this activity moves downstream
with intermittent intensification into the MS Valley during the day
or whether some of this activity weakens on the southern portion
near the Ark-La-Tex during the late morning. Hail, wind, and
perhaps a tornado or two are possible with the early-day storms over
the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.
Farther east, an adequately moist/destabilizing warm sector will
spread north and northeast in wake of the warm front with surface
dewpoints ranging from near 60 degrees F in the lower OH Valley to
the middle 60s farther south into TN/AR/MS/AL. Model guidance
correspondingly indicates weaker buoyancy will exist farther north
(MLCAPEs at or below 500 J/kg north of the OH river to 750-1250 J/kg
farther south) but extreme low-level shear. Hodographs become very
large by early-mid afternoon with flow increasing from 70-90kt in
the 850-500mb layer over the northern half of the Enhanced Risk
area. It seems plausible some attempts at storm development will
occur during the afternoon near the leading edge of the mid-level
dry slot. If the stronger updrafts become sustained, they will
likely evolve into supercells with tornado potential. A corridor of
possibility for supercell tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears
greatest from the OH/MS confluence southward into northern portions
of MS on the trailing portion of large-scale ascent moving away from
the area. As storms encounter weaker buoyancy farther east and
northeast during the evening, a transition to linear structures
capable primarily of damaging winds may occur.
..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/09/2019
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 12:17:30 PM
But after a cold late March, April appears warmer, and possibly stormy. Some long range models show a warm east U.S., and cold lingering in the High Plains and Rockies. That spells an active severe season in April, and a polar opposite to what we saw last year.
Post by: Curt on March 10, 2019, 12:23:13 PM
This won’t help to get things very warm quickly.
Post by: BRUCE on March 10, 2019, 12:35:12 PM
12Z GFS says we aren't done with winter just yet. Several cold shots appear on the horizon after mid month, and more frosts and freezing temperatures appear possible, if not likely. We may even see snow flying from time to time.preach it brother....
But after a cold late March, April appears warmer, and possibly stormy. Some long range models show a warm east U.S., and cold lingering in the High Plains and Rockies. That spells an active severe season in April, and a polar opposite to what we saw last year.
Post Merge: March 10, 2019, 12:40:39 PM
12Z GFS says we aren't done with winter just yet. Several cold shots appear on the horizon after mid month, and more frosts and freezing temperatures appear possible, if not likely. We may even see snow flying from time to time.been reading some thoughts over America wx ... some severe experst calling for a active severe eather season april to mid may...some thoughts from most saying calling least one violent outbreak across south... before things get active in the plains later... ::coffee::
But after a cold late March, April appears warmer, and possibly stormy. Some long range models show a warm east U.S., and cold lingering in the High Plains and Rockies. That spells an active severe season in April, and a polar opposite to what we saw last year.
Post by: Matthew on March 10, 2019, 02:33:28 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 03:03:47 PM
Post by: Charles L. on March 10, 2019, 03:58:12 PM
I'm lovin' it. Today's weather, that is. It's whetting my appetite for more. I hope we have some perfect 70's through most of April into May, before the summer heat sets in.
Same. If we aren’t going to get snow, then my next most favorite weather is sunny with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 04:47:55 PM
Same. If we aren’t going to get snow, then my next most favorite weather is sunny with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Outside of winter weather, spring and fall (the transition seasons) are my favorite. Unfortunately, the transition time seems to be shrinking.
Post by: StormNine on March 10, 2019, 05:49:46 PM
Post by: Curt on March 10, 2019, 08:42:09 PM
Post by: BRUCE on March 10, 2019, 08:59:04 PM
Going to see a massive Colorado cyclone on Wed and Thurs. Looks like northeast Colorado to South Dakota could get 20-30 inches of snow with 60 mph gusts.now. That is what you call a true blizzard there... wow
Post by: NashRugger on March 10, 2019, 10:42:18 PM
Going to see a massive Colorado cyclone on Wed and Thurs. Looks like northeast Colorado to South Dakota could get 20-30 inches of snow with 60 mph gusts.Classic Colorado Low track and bombing out and occluding rapidly, then filling as it moves towards/into the Midwest.
This is the Front Range's prime time of year for big snows.
Post by: cgauxknox on March 11, 2019, 04:27:11 AM
But, this really isn't a snow post, which is why it's in the spring thread. On Friday, a loaded barge (about 1,000 tons of material) broke loose below Fort Loudon Dam and traveled several miles downstream, being caught just 600 yards from a collision with a bridge on I-75. Obviously that kind of impact could structurally compromise a bridge and they had the interstate closed for a period of time until the barge was under control. This happened because of the incredibly high flow rate below Fort Loudon Dam, an environment we're likely to see throughout the Tennessee River system through the spring as we stay wet with already full reservoirs. Severe outbreaks get lots of press, and I admit to getting excited and watching them unfold, but this barge incident highlights the multitude of problems we may see from the incredible volume of water that has fallen on our region over the past several months, combined with what may still come in the spring.
An original article about the barge incident is available here https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/local/2019/03/10/what-happened-friday-nights-runaway-barge-loudon-county-i-75-bridge/3123557002/ for anybody who may be interested.
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2019, 08:54:41 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2019, 09:00:28 AM
West TN looks to receive the heaviest amounts in the next 7 days, while eastern areas see an inch or less.
(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1552312572)
Post by: schneitzeit on March 11, 2019, 09:01:11 AM
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2019, 09:06:31 AM
No offense, Matthew, but I find many of your posts to be unreasonably negative. I'm no meteorologist, but I wouldn't argue models are useless at all just because they can't always predict the future.
Let me correct my statement. Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 11, 2019, 09:17:18 AM
Let me correct my statement. Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days.
::pondering:: That's a safe bet in the winter season. 2018-2019 was painful for snow lovers and model watchers. It was like the State Farm commerical with the fisherman dangling the dollar in front of us and jerking it away when we tried to snatch it. We'd kill for even just a 1" event and couldn't get it. ::rant::
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2019, 09:33:13 AM
Let me correct my statement. Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days.
There was a huge shift in your outlook as winter progressed. And I get it. This winter left many of us feeling jaded and disappointed. And long-range models sucked this year.
Nevertheless, our current weather models are the best we've got, and the best fallible humans can come up with to predict future events in a dynamic and very chaotic system like Earth's weather. While far from perfect, or even good at times, they haven't been around that long in reality. Go back 50 years and look at what forecasters had to use. Tomorrow's weather was hard to forecast back then, and you could forget 3-5 days.
Having said that, I do understand your frustration with models and long range forecasts after this winter. We all had a bitter pill to swallow as winter progressed and our high hopes were dashed on the rocks of disappointment. But, all we can do is let it go and hope for something better next year.
In the meantime, have some ice cream. It always makes me feel better. ;)
Post by: NashRugger on March 11, 2019, 09:41:53 AM
Post by: JHart on March 11, 2019, 10:05:43 AM
The winter failed because of me. I moved to St. Louis on January 4th and a week later 11" got dumped. I took it with me, sorry about it. ::evillaugh::
Or, perhaps, St. Louis only got eleven inches because you were there. ::guitar::
Perspective, like commas, matters. :laugh:
Post by: Thundersnow on March 11, 2019, 11:36:37 AM
I guess I'm getting to an age when I realize life is too short to dwell on things like that. If we ever get another nice, big snowfall again, then I hope to enjoy that when the time comes. Until then, life goes on.
Post by: dwagner88 on March 11, 2019, 12:14:52 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 11, 2019, 12:50:46 PM
After that, any severe threat is marginal until late in the month. It will feel less like spring and more like November come time for the equinox. Fortunately, we are likely to dry out a bit along with the cooler air.
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2019, 02:02:52 PM
There was a huge shift in your outlook as winter progressed. And I get it. This winter left many of us feeling jaded and disappointed. And long-range models sucked this year.
Nevertheless, our current weather models are the best we've got, and the best fallible humans can come up with to predict future events in a dynamic and very chaotic system like Earth's weather. While far from perfect, or even good at times, they haven't been around that long in reality. Go back 50 years and look at what forecasters had to use. Tomorrow's weather was hard to forecast back then, and you could forget 3-5 days.
Having said that, I do understand your frustration with models and long range forecasts after this winter. We all had a bitter pill to swallow as winter progressed and our high hopes were dashed on the rocks of disappointment. But, all we can do is let it go and hope for something better next year.
In the meantime, have some ice cream. It always makes me feel better. ;)
I agree Jaycee. Models do help with near term. I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days. The models are not able to understand all the changes because it takes human input to help them understand. We don’t understand what is happening ourselves. The models for some reason have a cold bias these days. Only to be warmer as we get within 2-3 days. I see us slightly cooler to near normal when March ends. I can tolerate 55-60 and sunny. Just no 40’s and rain please. Soccer is much more enjoyable wo that!
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2019, 02:10:18 PM
I agree Jaycee. Models do help with near term. I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days. The models are not able to understand all the changes because it takes human input to help them understand. We don’t understand what is happening ourselves. The models for some reason have a cold bias these days. Only to be warmer as we get within 2-3 days. I see us slightly cooler to near normal when March ends. I can tolerate 55-60 and sunny. Just no 40’s and rain please. Soccer is much more enjoyable wo that!
The models sure screwed up today's forecast. We've had a half inch of rain on a day it wasn't supposed to rain at all here. Now that's model madness. :o
Post by: StormNine on March 11, 2019, 04:25:46 PM
The WPSD in house model showed 50MPH+ winds in NW TN and Western KY on Thursday and its expansive potentially sub 975MB strength suggests a very potent cyclone and a whole lot of wind advisories and high wind warnings needed across the country.
Post by: Curt on March 11, 2019, 05:30:00 PM
Our mid-week storm may be better known as "An American Wind Machine" versus any type of water attraction.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190311/b3ff1af6412a738752d90b08579d3b30.jpg)
The WPSD in house model showed 50MPH+ winds in NW TN and Western KY on Thursday and its expansive potentially sub 975MB strength suggests a very potent cyclone and a whole lot of wind advisories and high wind warnings needed across the country.
That **might** require a high wind warning. It’s just behind the front too
Post by: WXHD on March 11, 2019, 06:30:01 PM
I agree Jaycee. Models do help with near term. I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days.
As far as I know, the American Republican Party is the only political party in the whole world that denies, demeans and refuses to acknowledge “Climate Change.” Our global climate may be changing, much of it may be beyond our control. But locally, pollution is driving it. No matter who you are, your stream, creeks, rivers and oceans that just a few generations ago were safe to drink from and eat from are polluted. That’s changed and, those changes aren’t cyclical. Not being able to drink water from the Mississippi River is very much “Man Made.” There’s a multi-billion dollar industry that does nothing but clean water and sell it to us in a plastic bottle. The by-product of that is just dirtier water. You can say that this season or that season was just “due to sunspots.” But, sunspots aren’t why we have lead in our water, they’re not why we have pharmaceuticals in our water and, they’re surely not the reason we have air pollution. You and I are why we have these problems. And, you and I have to change. I know that wind and solar energy aren’t “free” but, coal and oil are doing nothing but getting rarer and more expensive. Anyone who doesn’t adapt is going to die and, our country is powerful enough to take the whole human species with. We are also, as individuals, numerous enough to bind together and make a difference.
More of the same ain’t going to help us. When you get a chance for your voice to be heard, be loud.
Post by: Icestorm on March 11, 2019, 06:56:54 PM
Post by: Charles L. on March 11, 2019, 07:13:22 PM
Wow someone needs a chill pill, in the end no matter what anyone says or does, we all will die, nothing will stop that. 😆
You’d make an excellent motivational speaker. I’d pay money to hear ya!
Post by: Thundersnow on March 11, 2019, 07:21:08 PM
Post by: Drifter49 on March 11, 2019, 07:26:50 PM
now. That is what you call a true blizzard there... wow
Hmmm I may have to get some of that.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: memphishogfan on March 11, 2019, 08:44:24 PM
Post by: WXHD on March 11, 2019, 09:11:16 PM
(https://i.gifer.com/JNs.gif)
I will upvote that every single time.
Post Merge: March 11, 2019, 09:33:33 PM
https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/ (https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/)
“Moore noted how “green” companies parasitize taxpayers via favorable regulations and subsidies ostensibly justified by the aforementioned narrative’s claimed threats, all while enjoying propagandistic protection across news media.”
::drowning::
Post by: Thundersnow on March 12, 2019, 09:48:27 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 12, 2019, 09:57:50 AM
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 12, 2019, 12:14:41 PM
I think it's been six months or better since I've seen these dark browns over Tennessee.
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
Not often I like to see dryer than normal on the map, but that is a good thing to see.
Post by: BRUCE on March 12, 2019, 12:18:55 PM
Not often I like to see dryer than normal on the map, but that is a good thing to see.really... even if it’s just for 5 days ....lol
Post by: JayCee on March 12, 2019, 02:18:07 PM
Not often I like to see dryer than normal on the map, but that is a good thing to see.
I prefer wet over dry myself, but we've had enough wet lately. We need a good long stretch of drier weather.
Local farmers have become concerned, as this is when they usually turn over the soil and fertilize to prepare for spring planting. They can't even get into the fields right now, much less work the soil.
Post by: StormNine on March 12, 2019, 05:33:34 PM
I don't think anyone would ever complain about how bad the winter sucked after a storm like that.
Post by: BRUCE on March 12, 2019, 05:41:00 PM
We should of all been born and raised in the Northern Nebraska Panhandle. We would get to see 18-24 inches of snow, 60-65MPH wind gusts, and even up to 1/4th of an inch of ice.that's about 10 years worth of winters for most of us... lol
I don't think anyone would ever complain about how bad the winter sucked after a storm like that.
Post by: JayCee on March 13, 2019, 10:07:06 AM
Post by: BRUCE on March 13, 2019, 10:30:01 AM
After Thursday, the next 7 days appear relatively cool by March standards. Frosts and near freezing temperatures look to occur over a big part of the area starting this weekend, and multiple days next week.yeah. But overall models r backing off some on the colder temps ... slightly cooler times than late March standards ... nothing extreme thank god
Post by: Matthew on March 13, 2019, 11:28:32 AM
Post by: Curt on March 13, 2019, 04:20:22 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 13, 2019, 05:45:42 PM
https://youtu.be/edKFsuiytCg (https://youtu.be/edKFsuiytCg)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 15, 2019, 07:14:02 AM
Things look stable for the next week.
Post by: JayCee on March 15, 2019, 07:34:54 AM
Appears we'll have a cool, but mostly dry week ahead, and one of the longest dry stretches we've seen since last October. Several frosty nights look likely with lows near freezing Saturday through Wednesday over much of TN. 6-10 & 8-14 day outlooks keep us below normal rain-wise, so no more flooding rains on the horizon.
Post by: BRUCE on March 15, 2019, 09:34:09 AM
The "bomb" only dropped .28" of rain here overnight with little fanfare. I think I saw a faint flash of distant lightning through sleepy eyes in the middle of the night, but that's about it.guess we need to enjoy the break... things look to ramp up end of the month... going into april
Appears we'll have a cool, but mostly dry week ahead, and one of the longest dry stretches we've seen since last October. Several frosty nights look likely with lows near freezing Saturday through Wednesday over much of TN. 6-10 & 8-14 day outlooks keep us below normal rain-wise, so no more flooding rains on the horizon.
Post by: JayCee on March 15, 2019, 09:56:45 AM
guess we need to enjoy the break... things look to ramp up end of the month... going into april
With a weak El Nino possibly sticking around through summer, I doubt we'll have many long dry stretches this spring. So, yeah, best enjoy this one.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 16, 2019, 06:24:29 AM
Post by: JHart on March 16, 2019, 08:17:29 AM
I'm sure they ended up with bean-cicles from time to time, but I don't recall it ever happening. :)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 16, 2019, 11:11:51 AM
Bradford pears are flowering, but we don’t care about those... in fact the more damage to be done to them, the better.
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2019, 12:14:38 PM
Post by: StormNine on March 16, 2019, 02:44:56 PM
The 8-14 day and potentially beyond pattern looks a bit concerning with troughing undercutting the western USA ridge. Our active subtropical jet will be a concern as well. It is a pattern that is favorable for the return of stormy weather if it verifies, but for now, it is time to enjoy our break.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 16, 2019, 04:41:04 PM
The tears of Big Blue Nation are raging. ::rofl::
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2019, 05:39:03 PM
River Flood Warning issued for Davidson County.post of year. .... go big orange ....
The tears of Big Blue Nation are raging. ::rofl::
Post by: StormNine on March 16, 2019, 06:27:25 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 16, 2019, 06:48:06 PM
If we can't beat you all in basketball or football we will beat you all in snowfall.
How our teams played today could very well escort both of us to Minneapolis. Aside from the subpar SEC officiating, that game was incredible to watch.
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2019, 07:01:29 PM
How our teams played today could very well escort both of us to Minneapolis. Aside from the subpar SEC officiating, that game was incredible to watch.yeah it had a final 4 feel to it...
Post Merge: March 16, 2019, 07:05:17 PM
If we can't beat you all in basketball or football we will beat you all in snowfall.sounds like you beat us in getting tornadoes 🌪 also
Post by: JayCee on March 17, 2019, 08:13:22 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on March 17, 2019, 08:21:44 AM
Post by: JHart on March 17, 2019, 08:35:32 AM
Post by: StormNine on March 17, 2019, 12:35:24 PM
- BRUCE
- Nashville WX if he is out West
- Park City, Utah
- Reed Timmer
- Sierra Nevada Mountain Range
- Vail, CO
- Vertical Video Stars who scream "CENSORED there is a CENSORED nader down it done lift that cow over there by grandpa we goin die but I gotta put it on Facebook live"
- Wind Farms in the Plains
Post by: Thundersnow on March 17, 2019, 01:36:33 PM
The long range pattern of Southwest troughing and the active Pacific Firehose (6 to 16 days out) on the 12Z GFS will make the following people happy:
- BRUCE
- Nashville WX if he is out West
- Park City, Utah
- Reed Timmer
- Sierra Nevada Mountain Range
- Vail, CO
- Vertical Video Stars who scream "CENSORED there is a CENSORED nader down it done lift that cow over there by grandpa we goin die but I gotta put it on Facebook live"
- Wind Farms in the Plains
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/4c/55/de4c55ae7996e4333b3ca889cb9ae120.gif)
Post by: StormNine on March 17, 2019, 02:27:23 PM
We have a nice string of nice days to enjoy before things go crazy again. Usually, in this pattern, the highs and lows are both underestimated because of clear skies and calmer winds really bring out the diurnal swings.
Post by: memphishogfan on March 17, 2019, 02:52:48 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 17, 2019, 02:53:45 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 17, 2019, 04:28:21 PM
I could go for a month of this weekends weather. Did yard work all day yesterday and am enjoying a nice sunny and 65 day today.
Saturday was a little chilly here, but today's 62 and blue sky was absolutely perfect!
Post by: schneitzeit on March 17, 2019, 04:42:52 PM
War Eagle !!!!!
When your students live in off-campus trailer parks and your biggest tradition is throwing toilet paper in trees, I guess you need to win in something every once in a while
30-24
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 17, 2019, 09:57:24 PM
When your students live in off-campus trailer parks and your biggest tradition is throwing toilet paper in trees, I guess you need to win in something every once in a whileI was more happy with UT beating Kentucky than I was Auburn winning today. I think UT left it on on the court Saturday and it showed today.
30-24
It is evident that you have never been to Auburn’s campus.One of the nicest ones around. We throw toilet paper and you paint a rock.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 17, 2019, 10:55:34 PM
Anywho, I didn't just make that up about Auburn students living in trailers- they live in literal trailers. It's a popular and affordable means of housing there. Thank goodness those twisters missed AU proper earlier this month.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/auburn/comments/60l3yo/admitted_veterinary_student_here_where_is_a/
http://gentillypark.com
Post by: BRUCE on March 18, 2019, 07:00:20 AM
Vols were gassed today. They are a bunch of 2 and 3 stars, and we have seen their ceiling against Kentucky.if they can beat Kentucky 2 out 3... they could beat anybody .... got tough draw early with cincy possible looming ... game be played in Columbus Ohio... cincy is very under seeded also ....
Anywho, I didn't just make that up about Auburn students living in trailers- they live in literal trailers. It's a popular and affordable means of housing there. Thank goodness those twisters missed AU proper earlier this month.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/auburn/comments/60l3yo/admitted_veterinary_student_here_where_is_a/
http://gentillypark.com
Post by: JayCee on March 18, 2019, 07:32:33 AM
Post by: StormNine on March 18, 2019, 09:19:13 PM
Whether that verifies who knows anymore especially when it comes to the GFS model suite. If it does that Vertical Video Vinnie may not get as much coverage.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 19, 2019, 05:29:49 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on March 19, 2019, 05:42:29 AM
http://sandhillsexpress.com/featured-news/portions-of-interstate-29-closed-highway-2-closed-at-nebraska-city-missouri-river-bridge/
Of course, all that water has to eventually empty into the Mississippi.
Post by: JayCee on March 19, 2019, 06:58:56 AM
Considering the flooding T-Snow mentioned above heading down the Missouri & Mississippi Rivers, it's a very good thing the heavy rain here has stopped for now. We don't need anymore runoff added to what's already heading our way.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 20, 2019, 07:13:41 AM
Post by: Coach B on March 20, 2019, 08:09:00 AM
Post by: dwagner88 on March 20, 2019, 08:21:13 AM
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 11:58:18 AM
I will never forget the gallatin tornado day in 2006 when the SPC had our area under high risk and 60% possibility of a tornado and hatched area...Have never seen that again. I took that day more serious than any severe weather event in my life
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 12:09:18 PM
I am hoping we get a good severe weather event coming up soon to track...as long as it doesn't hurt anybody or cause property damage....I am happy if it stays in wooded fields :). But there is some kind of adrenaline I get when a big severe event is forecast and REAL super cells occur...not the crapvection we have had the past few years...It is just fascinating to watch ( again as long as nobody is harmed ).yeah ... those days pretty rare ... the ole color black tornado 🌪 signator.... remember that day very well
I will never forget the gallatin tornado day in 2006 when the SPC had our area under high risk and 60% possibility of a tornado and hatched area...Have never seen that again. I took that day more serious than any severe weather event in my life
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 12:11:44 PM
Hey I wonder if you can find the disco on that ... love to go back read that from spc .... can someone please paste if they find it ... appreciate it
Post by: Eric on March 20, 2019, 12:18:01 PM
yeah ... those days pretty rare ... the ole color black tornado 🌪 signator.... remember that day very well
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 12:11:44 PM
Hey I wonder if you can find the disco on that ... love to go back read that from spc .... can someone please paste if they find it ... appreciate it
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060407_2000.html
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 12:21:51 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060407_2000.htmlthanks. Bro.... that kind wording just gives me chills....
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 01:28:29 PM
thanks. Bro.... that kind wording just gives me chills....
nice to know I am not the only one who obsesses about past high risk days and things like that LOL
another one I remember is the sequences of may 2003...I recall a tornado watch like 3 days in a row here in west middle tn...I was only 17 at the time so I am a bit foggy...I believe that was the Jackson TN F4? But the fact that it was day after day of moderate to high risk right around our area was quite frightening
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 01:37:56 PM
2006 april outbreak image....what was so wild was how EARLY in the day these super cells just exploded!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7555/2052/1600/0407ww0162_radar.0.jpg
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 02:00:43 PM
nice to know I am not the only one who obsesses about past high risk days and things like that LOLthat is correct. Sunday nite may 3 2003 ef4 just mile half from my house.... only damage I got were a couple windows knocked out by the golf ball hail it contained ....
another one I remember is the sequences of may 2003...I recall a tornado watch like 3 days in a row here in west middle tn...I was only 17 at the time so I am a bit foggy...I believe that was the Jackson TN F4? But the fact that it was day after day of moderate to high risk right around our area was quite frightening
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 01:37:56 PM
2006 april outbreak image....what was so wild was how EARLY in the day these super cells just exploded!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7555/2052/1600/0407ww0162_radar.0.jpg
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:03:43 PM
Think last high risk day we have had was late May 2011... that event effected mostly the Ohio valley regions think.... course 2011 was probably last true violent spring south has had ....
Post by: Eric on March 20, 2019, 02:38:19 PM
that is correct. Sunday nite may 3 2003 ef4 just mile half from my house.... only damage I got were a couple windows knocked out by the golf ball hail it contained ....
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:03:43 PM
Think last high risk day we have had was late May 2011... that event effected mostly the Ohio valley regions think.... course 2011 was probably last true violent spring south has had ....
March 2012, from what I can remember, was the last HIGH. If LCLs had been lower (caused by afternoon atmospheric mixing, IIRC), this one could've been really bad. Supercell dropped tennis balls across I-40 into Dickson/Nashville. Wall cloud spotted in Lavergne/Antioch.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk_20120302_2000.html
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 02:52:06 PM
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:54:31 PM
sorry eric...for some reason I didn't see your post lol. Also the april 2014 outbreak is another one where morning crapvection prevented us from having a really BIG outbreak here in Tennessee....happens a lot.
Lets not forget the 2010 floods were originally a high risk pds severe weather day however it just poured and poured and poured
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 03:12:08 PM
march 2012 was last high risk I remember that included our viewing area....theat was the Henryville Indiana tornado F4 and several others in KY and also several other ones in Ms and Alabama that day , another one of those weird scenarios where 100 miles north it was devastating and to our south they got slammed yet most of TN was sparedmay 2010 was the big yazoo city ms tornado 🌪....
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:54:31 PM
sorry eric...for some reason I didn't see your post lol. Also the april 2014 outbreak is another one where morning crapvection prevented us from having a really BIG outbreak here in Tennessee....happens a lot.
Lets not forget the 2010 floods were originally a high risk pds severe weather day however it just poured and poured and poured
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 03:29:45 PM
may 2010 was the big yazoo city ms tornado 🌪....
that one was a biggie....Hattiesburg is another tornado that has some great video to watch.
I have a question I was under the weather for a week or two and didn't keep up with things as much as I would have liked....
the outbreak which had that large tornado in Lee county Alabama, did spc ever increase risk to moderate or did they just leave it at enhanced all day? IMO spc has had a bad spring so far and was wondering about that particular day because I didn't get to keep a track of it that day....if it was not upgraded to at least a Moderate risk then I consider that a fail on their part for that day, 40 tornadoes several ef2 , an ef3 and ef4
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 03:40:08 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 20, 2019, 03:42:59 PM
http://www.philip-lutzak.com/weather/meteo361/project_3.htm
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 04:07:39 PM
Pretty sure it stayed enhanced.... I agree with you
again just an opinion, it leads to apathy among the casual average person when threats are not properly forecast...we all know how easy it can change through the day and understand...but the general public says "they cried wolf again" OR it gets under forecast such as the recent Alabama/Georgia outbreak then people really don't take it seriously at all.....it's hard
Post by: Eric on March 20, 2019, 04:17:01 PM
https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,99.210.html
Post by: JayCee on March 20, 2019, 05:35:38 PM
Quote
Biggest concern will be the low freezing levels which should allow
for some wintry precip to mix in over mainly higher elevation areas.
There will likely even be some light snow accumulations over some of
the higher mountain peaks mainly above 4000 feet, and will continue
to mention this in the HWO. In addition, there will be some limited
convective energy available, so some stronger showers may bring some
pea size hail even in valley locations Thursday due to the low
freezing levels.
Post by: StormNine on March 20, 2019, 07:29:31 PM
We are long overdue for a High Risk event as I believe we have the longest streak without a High Risk since they have been issued in the 1980s. 11/27/1994, 5/4 and 5/5/2003, 1/21/1999, 4/7/2006, and 2/5/2008 are also High Risk Days.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 20, 2019, 08:13:48 PM
Post by: NashRugger on March 20, 2019, 08:54:43 PM
that is correct. Sunday nite may 3 2003 ef4 just mile half from my house.... only damage I got were a couple windows knocked out by the golf ball hail it containedAnd later that night, early in the morning the next day, the north side of Murfreesboro got rocked, particularly from US 231 (Memorial Blvd) along De Jarnette Ln to near the rock quarry east of Hwy 96, were hit hard by hail larger than tennis balls embedded within a very destructive downburst. I was 15 at the time at Oakland HS and all the trees were stripped and shredded on their west and north faces, while the other side of De Jarnette, trees were stripped from west and south. Homes lost all windows and have siding beaten off and roofs pecked to bits.
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 08:56:35 PM
may 2010 was the big yazoo city ms tornado 🌪....That tornado happened the weekend BEFORE the big flood, on April 24th.
Post by: ChrisPC on March 21, 2019, 07:28:53 AM
Post by: gcbama on March 21, 2019, 08:18:47 AM
I'm surprised 16 April 1998 wasn't a high risk day. That outbreak produced the only EF5 in Tennessee as well as the Nashville tornado.
it was a high risk day
Post by: Thundersnow on March 21, 2019, 08:19:54 AM
I remember the Yazoo City tornado well; my wife and I grew up near there. My wife’s cousin almost drove into the tornado. She and her kids got into a brick building just in time. Unfortunately, she passed away last year after a car accident.
I was actually in MS when that happened with my girlfriend at the time (now wife) and a group of friends in Oxford where she is from. I remember it being warm and humid, and the sun was shining. We were somewhere with the TV on with coverage out of Memphis for the storms further south in MS. I think the Yazoo City tornado had just happened.
Post by: gcbama on March 21, 2019, 08:25:55 AM
The last High Risk was either 03/02/2012 (Northern Middle and Northeast TN), 5/25/2011 (West TN and West Middle TN) or 4/27/2011 (Southern Middle or Southeastern TN).
We are long overdue for a High Risk event as I believe we have the longest streak without a High Risk since they have been issued in the 1980s. 11/27/1994, 5/4 and 5/5/2003, 1/21/1999, 4/7/2006, and 2/5/2008 are also High Risk Days.
some others are 4-8-98 for southern mid tn( the Birmingham f5 (I just happened to be in B-ham that day SCARY), the Nashville tornado outbreak, 2002 veterans day outbreak and the November outbreak in 2005 are also memorable since they happened so late in the year. We have had many more high risks than people realize I think
Post by: Eric on March 21, 2019, 08:44:33 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days
Post by: gcbama on March 21, 2019, 08:48:26 AM
SPC HIGH risk days...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days
I think people will be surprised at how many the mid state has had....Veterans day 2002 , Nov 2005 and the 2006 outbreak are 3 that were particularly scary
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2019, 09:17:27 AM
Off work today, so maybe I should head up there and see what happens. One last look at snow, in a winter I've only seen it twice. Tempting.
Post by: BRUCE on March 21, 2019, 09:41:48 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2019, 02:48:12 PM
Post by: cgauxknox on March 21, 2019, 02:52:48 PM
Post by: StormNine on March 21, 2019, 04:03:55 PM
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 21, 2019, 04:35:52 PM
Post by: Thundersnow on March 21, 2019, 05:41:19 PM
I think we should probably be okay with that.
Post by: StormNine on March 21, 2019, 09:02:06 PM
Weather forecast for the foreseeable future looks cool to pleasantly mild... a couple of systems but nothing too gangbusters right now.
I think we should probably be okay with that.
I am pretty cool with that. Especially while we and areas upriver dry out. Since I am getting on a plane next weekend it would be nice to not have too many delays or crazy turbulence. It does look like things aren't as bad as they once appeared in the longer range (still may have one late March system to watch maybe).
I still think the 2nd half of this spring has an above average threat for a severe weather sequence event due to the tendency at times to have SW USA troughing and our active jet stream pattern.
Post by: gcbama on March 22, 2019, 08:31:39 AM
We have had several years where we had at least 2 High Risks per year. This is why this 7 or 8-year drought (depending on where you are at) is quite unusual.
agreed 100%. In our area going back to the 2011 april outbreak we had had a big rain shield a few hours before the event that prevents us from major outbreaks....it has happened so many times I cannot count....not saying it is a bad thing but just interesting that it keeps happening that way....also as I said yesterday the 2010 flood situation was a "high risk" severe day that turned into a rain shield also....quite interesting
Post by: BRUCE on March 22, 2019, 10:21:56 AM
agreed 100%. In our area going back to the 2011 april outbreak we had had a big rain shield a few hours before the event that prevents us from major outbreaks....it has happened so many times I cannot count....not saying it is a bad thing but just interesting that it keeps happening that way....also as I said yesterday the 2010 flood situation was a "high risk" severe day that turned into a rain shield also....quite interestingthe last really good severe outbreak I can recall that didn’t have rain sheiild most day was the Super Tuesday event ... late that afternoon we had a really nice dry punch break through ... before the action began... the air really got un stable quick that evening
Post by: gcbama on March 22, 2019, 11:30:22 AM
the last really good severe outbreak I can recall that didn’t have rain sheiild most day was the Super Tuesday event ... late that afternoon we had a really nice dry punch break through ... before the action began... the air really got un stable quick that evening
that one long track supercell that went from MS to KY fropped f2 damage 3 miles from me....you could hear it just over the hills here in lewis county
But just think april 2011....april 2014 were both potential disasters that we were spared from because of early morning/afternoon rains
Post by: BRUCE on March 22, 2019, 11:40:26 AM
that one long track supercell that went from MS to KY fropped f2 damage 3 miles from me....you could hear it just over the hills here in lewis countyit was a mcs came through late night early morning that screwed up the super 1974 outbreak for west Tennessee and east Arkansas ... but it set up outflow boundaries across middle and eastern Tennessee for a terrible situation we all know of course
But just think april 2011....april 2014 were both potential disasters that we were spared from because of early morning/afternoon rains
Post by: JayCee on March 23, 2019, 02:51:58 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 24, 2019, 07:53:01 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 24, 2019, 08:07:12 PM
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 09:34:56 AM
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 09:36:27 AM
Post by: memphishogfan on March 25, 2019, 09:54:32 AM
Out of curiosity. I know a negative AMO typically reduces the number of major tropical systems you have in a year, but what is its effects on Severe weather?
Post by: BRUCE on March 25, 2019, 11:13:48 AM
On to another topic....looks like the AMO might be finally flipping to negative. It’s been positive since 1996 and usually flips every 20-25 years. If its sustainable, it has lots of implications on climate over the next 2 decades.we already gotten a situation that’s causing implications on our climate.... it’s called global warming ... that’s bad enough.
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2019, 02:48:57 PM
On to another topic....looks like the AMO might be finally flipping to negative. It’s been positive since 1996 and usually flips every 20-25 years. If its sustainable, it has lots of implications on climate over the next 2 decades.
Now flip it! Flip it good!
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 03:12:23 PM
we already gotten a situation that’s causing implications on our climate.... it’s called global warming ... that’s bad enough.
Really just intending to bring up the sensible effects of the AMO- not bring global warming or politics into play here. This is something that can be measured however.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/d7b4d1b733d445948e16941e6ea7dc99.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/1f3adc585c471242626f0195f8bbce64.jpg)
Post by: JHart on March 25, 2019, 05:11:20 PM
Now flip it! Flip it good!
Well, thank you very much. Now that's stuck in my head. ::whistling::
Post by: Drifter49 on March 25, 2019, 05:13:43 PM
Now flip it! Flip it good!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: BRUCE on March 25, 2019, 05:28:33 PM
i hated that band with passion... wasn’t my type music back then lol
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2019, 06:10:55 PM
Really just intending to bring up the sensible effects of the AMO- not bring global warming or politics into play here. This is something that can be measured however.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/d7b4d1b733d445948e16941e6ea7dc99.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/1f3adc585c471242626f0195f8bbce64.jpg)
Well just means no severe wx at all Bruce and either cold rains or cold and dry for the winters😂
#welcometotennessee
Post by: Drifter49 on March 25, 2019, 06:31:55 PM
i hated that band with passion... wasn’t my type music back then lol
Ah more of a culture club guy
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 06:48:14 PM
Well just means no severe wx at all Bruce and either cold rains or cold and dry for the winters
#welcometotennessee
Negative AMO plus a negative PDO have displayed the coldest and snowiest periods for Tennessee by a long shot ie ‘60-‘96. Yes- they are drier, but as Storm59 has mentioned....cold dry winters usually mean precip has a better shot at being wintry. I’m waiting on the full switch to a negative AMO before making any conclusions on where climate is headed.
Post by: Drifter49 on March 25, 2019, 06:49:54 PM
Negative AMO plus a negative PDO have displayed the coldest and snowiest periods for Tennessee by a long shot ie ‘60-‘96. Yes- they are drier, but as Storm59 has mentioned....cold dry winters usually mean precip has w better shot at being wintry. I’m waiting on the full switch to a negative AMO before making any conclusions on where climate is headed.I definitely could use some 70’s and 80’s winters. Especially 70’s.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2019, 07:16:26 PM
i hated that band with passion... wasn’t my type music back then lol
[attachimg=1]
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: mamMATTus on March 25, 2019, 08:53:01 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 26, 2019, 06:54:57 AM
Ah more of a culture club guy
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I can see Bruce rockin' out to Karma Chameleon. ::rofl::
Post Merge: March 26, 2019, 07:25:12 AM
In the realm of weather, Euro shows a brief cold shot late in the weekend with possible freezing weather by Monday morning. Red Bud winter? Mine are preparing for their show this week with buds one or two days from opening.
Post by: Nash_LSU on March 26, 2019, 07:49:49 AM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 26, 2019, 08:01:04 AM
I can see Bruce rockin' out to Karma Chameleon.
He's a man without conviction.
Post by: BRUCE on March 26, 2019, 08:18:08 AM
He's a man without conviction.dokken. Cinderella. Motley crew. Iron Maiden. Rush. Ozzy. Were some of my favorite 80 bands...then the 90s came Alice In Chains my favorite all time band ... followed by soundgarden. Nirvana...
Post by: cgauxknox on March 26, 2019, 08:47:08 AM
dokken. Cinderella. Motley crew. Iron Maiden. Rush. Ozzy. Were some of my favorite 80 bands...then the 90s came Alice In Chains my favorite all time band ... followed by soundgarden. Nirvana...Add in Metallica, Guns N Roses, Poison, we could have a pretty good soundtrack for the forum.
Post by: JayCee on March 26, 2019, 09:16:13 AM
Meanwhile, the sun shines bright on the rest of Tennessee and my old KY home.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 26, 2019, 03:43:06 PM
Add in Metallica, Guns N Roses, Poison, we could have a pretty good soundtrack for the forum.
This is East Tennessee, so you can't leave out Steve Earle either
Post by: StormNine on March 26, 2019, 04:53:26 PM
Spring 2011: Crazy Train by Ozzy Osbourne
Winter 2011-12: Harvester of Sorrow by Metallica
Winter 2016-17: Sea of Sorrow by Alice in Chains
The theme song of Winter 2018-19: Foolin by Def Leppard
Post by: Thundersnow on March 26, 2019, 04:56:43 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 26, 2019, 05:03:11 PM
Quote
Behind the front we will get a nice push of continental air, with
high pressure diving south through the plains. After highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s on Saturday, temps will drop nearly 20
degrees on Sunday with highs reaching only into the 50s. Expect to
see lows in the 30s Sunday night. Temperatures will moderate some
into early next week, but will still be notably cooler than
normal.
We better enjoy these "nice pushes of continental air" over the coming weeks, because soon they won't be pushing down here too often.
Post by: cgauxknox on March 27, 2019, 06:38:09 AM
Every Winter and or Spring gets a theme song for example:Disappointing winter after disappointing winter for years on end: Same Ol Situation by Motley Crue.
Spring 2011: Crazy Train by Ozzy Osbourne
Winter 2011-12: Harvester of Sorrow by Metallica
Winter 2016-17: Sea of Sorrow by Alice in Chains
The theme song of Winter 2018-19: Foolin by Def Leppard
schneitzeit, feel free to jump in here with some Rammstein references for us; severe weather season is a perfect match for their music.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 27, 2019, 06:57:46 AM
I like this gradually stepping up and back pattern we've seen- we haven't gone ridiculously warm for days at a time. We creep up to a mild day or two and then drop back to cool- near or just below freezing nights, but not exceptionally cold.
It beats some years where we jump to anomalously warm weather, like 80 degrees, well before its time, and then there's a brutal cold snap. I prefer this gentler roller-coaster ride toward the warm season.
Post by: JayCee on March 27, 2019, 07:22:11 AM
I noticed yesterday's record high of 83 was in '07. As T-Snow said, I prefer this March of cool to mild over the ridiculous early warmth of that year, which led to a very ugly and dead spring after several late hard freezes in early April. So far this year, things are progressing normally with the redbuds just about to bloom, while most other hardwoods are still dormant. The buds are swelling on most oaks and hickories, so in another few weeks, leaves will be emerging on cue.
Post by: BRUCE on March 27, 2019, 07:43:28 AM
Dropped to 33 here, giving us a morning of widespread frost.agree with you .. been nice March to be honest ... cool mornings nice afternoons ... loving the little dry spell been getting here n there ... breaking ground time for the ole garden ... just hope we can get a nice severe event or two in heart of spring ... April to mid May ... haven’t had time 👀 at long range stuff.. due to work ...
I noticed yesterday's record high of 83 was in '07. As T-Snow said, I prefer this March of cool to mild over the ridiculous early warmth of that year, which led to a very ugly and dead spring after several late hard freezes in early April. So far this year, things are progressing normally with the redbuds just about to bloom, while most other hardwoods are still dormant. The buds are swelling on most oaks and hickories, so in another few weeks, leaves will be emerging on cue.
Post by: mamMATTus on March 27, 2019, 05:00:06 PM
agree with you .. been nice March to be honest ... cool mornings nice afternoons ... loving the little dry spell been getting here n there ... breaking ground time for the ole garden ... just hope we can get a nice severe event or two in heart of spring ... April to mid May ... haven’t had time 👀 at long range stuff.. due to work ...
There's really nothing on the horizon for severe weather through the next 10-14 days. Kinda disappointing.
Post by: wfrogge on March 28, 2019, 11:26:59 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 29, 2019, 09:27:36 AM
Quote
I think this is setting the tone for April to be a warmer than normal month around here. No, every single day won’t be like the above map, but the average for the month should skew toastier than normal. It’s also likely to be an above normal rainfall and severe weather month.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 29, 2019, 11:26:59 AM
Chris Bailey's take on what April could have in store for us (and those bored with the current pattern should crack a smile).
If above normal rainfall, then we should be all the more appreciative of the drier pattern of late.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 30, 2019, 04:42:01 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190330_1200_prt.gif)
Post by: JayCee on March 30, 2019, 06:54:20 AM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 30, 2019, 09:08:22 AM
Post by: mamMATTus on March 30, 2019, 12:49:00 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 30, 2019, 02:36:34 PM
Quote
This means that
midweek ridging will allow us to reach the 70s in parts of the
Valley from Wednesday through Saturday. But the southerly winds that
will prompt that warm-up will also draw up Gulf moisture ahead of
the next worthwhile shortwave trough that will roll past the MS
Valley Thursday and bring us showery weather from late Thursday
through Friday night. There will be no post-frontal cool down,
however, as the next trough moves into the southern plains Saturday,
quickly ridging us once again. Precip from this second event will
probably hold off until next Sunday at least.
Looking ahead, the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks are showing decent
signals for an expectation of warmer than average temperatures.
Post by: gcbama on March 30, 2019, 03:10:36 PM
I wonder if the trends of quieter severe springs is going to continue again this year
Post by: Thundersnow on March 30, 2019, 04:06:15 PM
Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 0251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019
Areas affected...Southeastern Arkansas...western through northern
Mississippi...and western through Middle Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 302052Z - 302215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Convection will continue to gradually develop across the
discussion area over the next several hours, posing a threat for
hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. A WW issuance may
eventually be needed pending convective trends.
DISCUSSION...Although most of the pre-frontal warm sector has been
capped through the afternoon, recent radar/satellite indicates
localized breaches of the inversion associated with gradually
deepening convection near/north of Jackson, TN and also along the
cold front near Bradley/Drew counties in Arkansas. These trends
should continue through the remainder of the afternoon in response
to convergence along the front, continued surface
warming/destabilization, and the glancing influence of a shortwave
trough centered over Missouri. Strong deep shear (around 50 kts)
and weak surface-based instability (around 1000-1250 J/kg) will
support a gradually increasing risk of damaging wind gusts and hail
with convection that can deepen and mature along and ahead of the
front. Veered low-level flow will limit the overall tornado risk,
although an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out -
especially where localized backing enhances SRH.
..Cook/Grams.. 03/30/2019
Post by: JayCee on March 30, 2019, 06:10:40 PM
Post by: Matthew on March 30, 2019, 06:41:55 PM
Post by: NashRugger on March 30, 2019, 06:46:25 PM
Any word on ground from storm heading toward SmyrnaThe tornadic storm will miss Smyrna, and likely go south of a majority of Murfreesboro.
Post by: Charles L. on March 30, 2019, 06:47:11 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 30, 2019, 06:51:54 PM
Quote
rea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
739 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to issue a wind advisory for the remainder of this
evening through early morning. Increasing 850mb jet will produce
windy conditions across the Mountains and breezy conditions
elsewhere.
Line of showers and thunderstorms over middle Tennessee will
continue move quickly east northeast. Airmass will be quite a bit
less unstable over our area. Still expect showers and some
thunderstorms with limited instability but strong upper dynamics.
Due to the 50-60kts 850mb jet, main concern will be the potential
of strong to possible damaging winds. Main area of concern is
along and west of interstate 75.
Line of convection will quickly move through by early Sunday
morning with return of dry conditions soon just before/after
sunrise.
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 30, 2019, 08:23:58 PM
Post by: BRUCE on March 31, 2019, 10:05:23 AM
Post by: mamMATTus on March 31, 2019, 11:20:40 AM
seeing things coming to life finally weather wise ... 7 days out n further.
Yep seeing the same.
Post by: NashRugger on March 31, 2019, 12:58:53 PM
Post by: Beth on March 31, 2019, 01:22:49 PM
Post by: JayCee on April 01, 2019, 08:00:03 AM
Happy April! I guess if I had to pick one month and call it my favorite, it would be this one. It's the month of rebirth, and transformation. Trees and plants that are bare and lifeless at the beginning of the month, are lush with new growth by month's end. It's warm, but not excessively hot and humid. Days get longer, and Sun moves higher. It's just feels good to be alive.
Enjoy the blue skies and sunshine today!
Post by: Thundersnow on April 01, 2019, 10:49:58 AM
I hope this morning does turn out to be our last brush with freezing temps. Certainly, a later freeze would cause damage. Come Wednesday, it appears 70s rule for a while, and even close to 80 by the weekend. I don't think there are any other significant cool downs in sight. Oh, there will be a cool snap or two, but hopefully we stay above freezing from here on out.
Post by: schneitzeit on April 01, 2019, 02:05:04 PM
Post by: BRUCE on April 01, 2019, 09:19:38 PM
Post by: Eric on April 02, 2019, 06:57:00 AM
If models r correct.... severe weather fixing pick up big time ....
(http://i67.tinypic.com/33dcv92.jpg)
Post by: JayCee on April 02, 2019, 07:29:58 AM
Yep- amazing to notice the transformation of the countryside from all the trees that will be leafing out this month.
I hope this morning does turn out to be our last brush with freezing temps. Certainly, a later freeze would cause damage. Come Wednesday, it appears 70s rule for a while, and even close to 80 by the weekend. I don't think there are any other significant cool downs in sight. Oh, there will be a cool snap or two, but hopefully we stay above freezing from here on out.
After the warmth late week into the weekend, I'd say most trees will have leaves emerging. Hopefully, this cold snap with freezing temperatures is the last one. Looking into the long range, I'd say it probably is. Usually after the 15th we're done with the 20's.
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif)
Post by: Eric on April 02, 2019, 07:40:31 AM
After the warmth late week into the weekend, I'd say most trees will have leaves emerging. Hopefully, this cold snap with freezing temperatures is the last one. Looking into the long range, I'd say it probably is. Usually after the 15th we're done with the 20's.
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif)
And I'm here for all of it. ::hot::
Post by: JayCee on April 02, 2019, 01:54:49 PM
Post by: cgauxknox on April 02, 2019, 02:02:00 PM
Post by: JayCee on April 02, 2019, 03:19:49 PM
The sun finally broke through in the valley after a wetter than expected start; maybe it's headed your way JayCee!
Good to know! The western horizon is brightening somewhat, so maybe I'll see a decent sunset!
Just now hit 50, so I'd say the 61 that was forecast is well out of reach.
Post Merge: April 02, 2019, 05:42:37 PM
After several weeks of near to below normal rainfall (for a nice change), it appears the old winter pattern may reassert itself for a time after this week. Below normal temperatures just to our north, and above normal warmth to our south puts us back in the battle ground between the two.
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif)
Above normal rainfall looks likely in that pattern, and with it being April, above normal precipitation usually means severe weather at some point, especially looking at the contrast in temperatures from north to south. Unlike the last two wet and cold Aprils, this one looks wet and warm, and potentially more unstable.
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif)
Post Merge: April 03, 2019, 08:24:04 AM
Got colder last night than forecast, which is logical since we didn't get as warm as forecast yesterday. Flirted with the freezing mark at 32.8, and actually had a heavy frost on the cars. Could be the last one until next October.
Post by: Flash on April 03, 2019, 12:54:07 PM
Good to know! The western horizon is brightening somewhat, so maybe I'll see a decent sunset!
Just now hit 50, so I'd say the 61 that was forecast is well out of reach.
Post Merge: April 02, 2019, 05:42:37 PM
After several weeks of near to below normal rainfall (for a nice change), it appears the old winter pattern may reassert itself for a time after this week. Below normal temperatures just to our north, and above normal warmth to our south puts us back in the battle ground between the two.
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif)
Above normal rainfall looks likely in that pattern, and with it being April, above normal precipitation usually means severe weather at some point, especially looking at the contrast in temperatures from north to south. Unlike the last two wet and cold Aprils, this one looks wet and warm, and potentially more unstable.
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif)
Post Merge: April 03, 2019, 08:24:04 AM
Got colder last night than forecast, which is logical since we didn't get as warm as forecast yesterday. Flirted with the freezing mark at 32.8, and actually had a heavy frost on the cars. Could be the last one until next October.
As long as we can see greater instability more consistently, I'm cool (pun intended?) with whatever April has to offer.
Post by: BRUCE on April 03, 2019, 02:19:15 PM
Post by: JayCee on April 03, 2019, 03:00:02 PM
Quote
A weak warm front lifting north
Sunday morning will likely support precipitation along this
boundary. Point forecast soundings indicate several hundred joules
of CAPE using a most unstable parcel trace. This elevated
instability would indicate chances of thunderstorms to accompany
this lifting boundary as well. Once the front lifts, the area will
become embedded into the warm sector airmass. After a lull in the
afternoon, precipitation will move back into the area Sunday
afternoon and evening. A lot of questions still remain in regards
to instability and overall shear, but models have been persistent in
showing increased instability parameters. While shear looks to
remain on the weak side, the co-location of instability, and weak
shear would support chances of multi-cellular convection as well.
Will carry chance to likely PoPs Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening.
Probably nothing extreme, but it should make for an interesting day. I've missed seeing the cumulonimbus building and roaming through the sky.
EDIT: The 8-14 day outlook I posted above just updated and changed. That sure looks like a very active and stormy pattern to me.
Post by: Thundersnow on April 03, 2019, 03:45:33 PM
Post by: Beth on April 03, 2019, 04:16:40 PM
Today marks the 45th anniversary of Super Outbreak ‘74.Yes it is! I still have nightmares from it. My older brother worked as a telephone operator at Bell South in Decatur Ala. He worked second shift. They had a big map in the room they were in. People would call in screaming that a funnel was approaching their home and they were in bathrooms and halls and where ever they thought was safe. The operators could hear the roar of it and when it would hit the horrifying screams of the families. Then the line would go dead. The supervisers would put push pins in the map of where the calls came in from and report to 911. It was on a Wednesday night and so many Churches were full. Most were wiped out in Athens, and so many town in North Alabama. Just slabs of cement left. A big mobile home park that was 30 miles away was gone. The last big funnel was headed straight at our neighborhood. But veered a quarter of a mile and wiped out another large neighborhood. We were without power for several days. We had large pieces of mobile homes in our front yard from the mobile home about 30 miles away. I have never seen such devastation in my life and hope I never have to see it again.
Post by: schneitzeit on April 03, 2019, 05:27:12 PM
System on today’s 12z euro ... is raisaung my eye brows ... week out still 4. 11. Pushing cape values 2000 into Tennessee ... get the winds off that run veer back little more ... boom... but plenty time watch for that one
Dude, do you not ever review what you write before posting? What may seem like an interesting comment to you is irritating for the rest of us. I have no idea what you just said.
Post by: BRUCE on April 03, 2019, 07:46:29 PM
Today marks the 45th anniversary of Super Outbreak ‘74.the outbreak that got me interested in severe weather... when I was 11 years old... remember it well....
Post by: schneitzeit on April 03, 2019, 09:48:22 PM
the outbreak that got me interested in severe weather... when I was 11 years old... remember it well....
Much better, thanks ::applause::
The '74 Super Outbreak must have been terrifying. To compare it to something I have been alive for, I try to imagine the 2011 outbreak without all of the amenities available at that time, such as accessing severe alerts and doppler radar on your phone. In 1974, you would have had no idea what was coming unless someone called you or if you had the TV on. Without the TV or a phone call for a warning, you wouldn't know it was in your path until you saw it or heard it. Terrifying.
Did West and Middle TN have tornado sirens in the 1970s? To this day, Knoxville has no tornado sirens. Tornadoes are very rare here, but all it takes is the correct setup (like April 27, 2011) and we will wish we had them when it's too late. I know this is not how statistics work, but the Knoxville metro is overdue for tornadoes. It's been quiet over here since I've lived here.
Post by: Thundersnow on April 03, 2019, 10:15:12 PM
Much better, thanks ::applause::
The '74 Super Outbreak must have been terrifying. To compare it to something I have been alive for, I try to imagine the 2011 outbreak without all of the amenities available at that time, such as accessing severe alerts and doppler radar on your phone. In 1974, you would have had no idea what was coming unless someone called you or if you had the TV on. Without the TV or a phone call for a warning, you wouldn't know it was in your path until you saw it or heard it. Terrifying.
Did West and Middle TN have tornado sirens in the 1970s? To this day, Knoxville has no tornado sirens. Tornadoes are very rare here, but all it takes is the correct setup (like April 27, 2011) and we will wish we had them when it's too late. I know this is not how statistics work, but the Knoxville metro is overdue for tornadoes. It's been quiet over here since I've lived here.
It was really after 1998 before tornado sirens were a thing in Nashville.
Growing up, I remember when tornado sirens were something you’d find in the Midwest and plains, in Tornado Alley. We didn’t have them here.
Post by: BRUCE on April 03, 2019, 10:43:37 PM
It was really after 1998 before tornado sirens were a thing in Nashville.we had them here west Tennessee early 70s ...
Growing up, I remember when tornado sirens were something you’d find in the Midwest and plains, in Tornado Alley. We didn’t have them here.
Post by: JayCee on April 04, 2019, 07:29:38 AM
Quote
RAP soundings are showing a fair amount of potential instability for
Sunday afternoon, although weak 0-6km shear values. This indicates
that we should mostly see multi-cells of pulse convection with non-
rotating updrafts. That said, CAPE values are high enough,
particularly in the more southern areas of the CWA, that severe
storms can`t be entirely ruled out at this point.
The period of potential thunderstorms also looks to extend beyond
the weekend. As the GFS and Euro models are becoming more in
agreement, they show an area of developing low pressure over the
Great Plains. This area of cyclogenesis will form a weak semi-
baroclinic low pressure center that will slowly track eastward. The
slow movement of the deepening low will lead to an extended period
of showers and thunderstorms for the first few days of next week.
Post by: dwagner88 on April 04, 2019, 07:36:59 AM
It was really after 1998 before tornado sirens were a thing in Nashville.We still don't have them here. The rumor is that TVA is opposed to them because they could cause confusion between the nuclear plant sirens and potential tornado sirens. We have had 17 tornadoes in Hamilton county in the last 10 years, causing 13 fatalities and 350 injuries. Most were on 4/27/2011.
Growing up, I remember when tornado sirens were something you’d find in the Midwest and plains, in Tornado Alley. We didn’t have them here.
Post by: JHart on April 04, 2019, 07:56:54 AM
Dude, do you not ever review what you write before posting? What may seem like an interesting comment to you is irritating for the rest of us. I have no idea what you just said.
Meh... you need to grade some freshman math homework. After that, you can translate almost anything.
Post by: spanarkle08 on April 04, 2019, 11:39:30 AM
the outbreak that got me interested in severe weather... when I was 11 years old... remember it well....
I was 12 and living right smack in the middle of it in Franklin County by Tims Ford Dam. Only had 3 channels so TV didn't help us, we turned it off so it would not get struck by lightning.
Post by: BRUCE on April 04, 2019, 12:21:23 PM
Post by: NashRugger on April 04, 2019, 04:46:46 PM
We still don't have them here. The rumor is that TVA is opposed to them because they could cause confusion between the nuclear plant sirens and potential tornado sirens. We have had 17 tornadoes in Hamilton county in the last 10 years, causing 13 fatalities and 350 injuries. Most were on 4/27/2011.That's bullshyt because there is a plethora of sirens in northern Alabama along with the Brown's Ferry nuclear plant.
Post by: dwagner88 on April 04, 2019, 06:02:39 PM
That's bullshyt because there is a plethora of sirens in northern Alabama along with the Brown's Ferry nuclear plant.Interesting. I didn’t know they had them near the plant. I think in the age of the smartphone it matters a bit less than it did in the past, but I can’t believe there wasn’t more of a push to install them after the super outbreak.
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2019, 04:49:30 AM
Day 3 Outlook (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day3otlk_20190405_0730.html)
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day3otlk_20190405_0730_prt.gif)
Post by: mamMATTus on April 05, 2019, 05:55:03 AM
Post by: cgauxknox on April 05, 2019, 07:18:07 AM
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: Eric on April 05, 2019, 07:41:32 AM
Post by: BRUCE on April 05, 2019, 07:43:52 AM
Mesoscale uncertainties. Not sure where the kinematics lineup with the best thermodynamics. Ongoing convection likely an issue, as well.only in Tennessee... state for crap convection... lol but the system I have eye on is little further out anyways ....
Post by: gcbama on April 05, 2019, 09:09:35 AM
btw if anybody is interested, the May 1995 event was my introduction to severe weather....I was 9 and we had just moved to Mid Tn from New Jersey in 1991....I remember 2 minutes of softball hail in Hohenwald...and looking back at the radar loop for that date we had a HUGE discrete supercell with the hail core right over us....from that moment on I was hooked to severe weather.
That is a forgotten outbreak that was VERY intense
Post by: Curt on April 05, 2019, 10:12:17 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2019, 10:13:41 AM
sunday system will be crapvection with clouds and some thunder imo
btw if anybody is interested, the May 1995 event was my introduction to severe weather....I was 9 and we had just moved to Mid Tn from New Jersey in 1991....I remember 2 minutes of softball hail in Hohenwald...and looking back at the radar loop for that date we had a HUGE discrete supercell with the hail core right over us....from that moment on I was hooked to severe weather.
That is a forgotten outbreak that was VERY intense
May 18, 1995... I was CAMPING with family not far from Hohenwald off Natchez Trace. ::wow:: :o
We took cover in a building... as some golf ball sized hail fell outside.
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2019, 10:20:15 AM
Mid week next week- pattern looks chilly for awhile. Wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some frost issues mid month.
Thank you Curt... :P
(https://media.giphy.com/media/hnzsXgI9Ka0r6/giphy.gif)
Post by: Curt on April 05, 2019, 10:23:15 AM
Thank you Curt... :P
(https://media.giphy.com/media/hnzsXgI9Ka0r6/giphy.gif)
IKR? I want a 2 month long period of 70’s for highs and 50’s for lows before the 3.5 month doldrums of upper 80’s to mid 90’s kicks in.
Post by: BRUCE on April 05, 2019, 10:39:59 AM
Mid week next week- pattern looks chilly for awhile. Wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some frost issues mid month.dogwood winter.... nothing unusual ... then you have blackberry winter... then comes the good ole heat humidity ....
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2019, 11:53:12 AM
dogwood winter.... nothing unusual ... then you have blackberry winter... then comes the good ole heat humidity ....
(https://66.media.tumblr.com/0f0770decb75eb23f510a7569039493a/tumblr_ok67brnS1E1u501aoo1_400.gif)
Post by: StormNine on April 05, 2019, 01:52:02 PM
sunday system will be crapvection with clouds and some thunder imo
btw if anybody is interested, the May 1995 event was my introduction to severe weather....I was 9 and we had just moved to Mid Tn from New Jersey in 1991....I remember 2 minutes of softball hail in Hohenwald...and looking back at the radar loop for that date we had a HUGE discrete supercell with the hail core right over us....from that moment on I was hooked to severe weather.
That is a forgotten outbreak that was VERY intense
That outbreak along with the sequence that it was associated with was pretty intense. 1995 was a lot like 2003 and 2004 in which you had a slow start to the severe weather season but then you had a sequence (a week or two of non-stop severe weather) that put those years into the noteworthy category. In 1995, we had the big hail/tornado outbreak of the 18th, but we also had a serial derecho a few nights before that and there were a few plains and even Northeastern USA events in the mix in 95.
Post by: gcbama on April 05, 2019, 02:02:20 PM
Post by: StormNine on April 05, 2019, 05:56:00 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/2q8zr7t.jpg)
(http://i64.tinypic.com/1zeh2fb.jpg)
Just because I don't want to contribute to extending the life of the Winter thread I will post them here. These are some snow photos I took when I was up in the Wasatch Mountains (Alta/Snowbird) a few days ago. Alta had about 6 inches of snow before I ventured up there and about 150 inches of snow cover. I believe it is the same system or part of the same system that will give us storm chances later on.
Post by: JayCee on April 05, 2019, 06:13:13 PM
Mid week next week- pattern looks chilly for awhile. Wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some frost issues mid month.
After this winter, I'm skeptical of cold in the long range. It either evaporates altogether, or it's greatly reduced in intensity by the time it actually arrives. This time, I would be happy for either. Give me 65-75 during the day, and lows in the 50's through Memorial Day, and I'll forgive Mother Nature for this past winter.
Post by: gcbama on April 06, 2019, 03:03:54 PM
Post by: JayCee on April 06, 2019, 04:45:04 PM
Quote
With the low positioned to our southwest, abundant moisture from the
Gulf gets advected into our area. Soundings show PW values ranging
from 1.25 to 1.5 inches by Monday afternoon, which is maxed out for
this time of year climatologically. This will allow for potentially
heavy rainfall. WPC is currently highlighting a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. Also, there could be a few strong storms, with
the main threats being small hail and isolated damaging winds.
Post by: cgauxknox on April 06, 2019, 04:47:51 PM
What an awesome day in east TN. 76 this afternoon and plenty of sun. But heavy rain could be on the way.We enjoyed a long walk this morning and went kayaking this afternoon. Early spring days in East TN don't get any better than this. The sunshine was a welcome forecast bust as we were supposed to be cloudy most of the day.
Post by: Charles L. on April 06, 2019, 08:53:24 PM
Post by: BRUCE on April 06, 2019, 08:56:45 PM
TOR Warning in effect just south of Memphis in Desoto County, MS.outstanding circulation with that cell
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2019, 07:06:16 AM
Post by: Flash on April 07, 2019, 08:39:16 AM
Post by: Charles L. on April 07, 2019, 08:48:55 AM
Any evidence today's Slight Risk may be upgraded?
No, if anything I think we could get downgraded. SPC already trimmed the northern/NW sections of the slight risk zone and moved most of middle TN out of the 15% hail risk.
Post by: Flash on April 07, 2019, 10:23:05 AM
No, if anything I think we could get downgraded. SPC already trimmed the northern/NW sections of the slight risk zone and moved most of middle TN out of the 15% hail risk.
Thanks! Busy on-the-go day. Haven’t been able to check latest guidance. Feel/eye tests line up with your thinking.
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2019, 10:44:09 AM
Quote
rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1017 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2019
.DISCUSSION...
An area of showers across northeast Tennessee and southwest
Virginia will move northeast and diminish this morning. The main
area of convection is currently across west Tennessee. These
storms are weakening but satellite and radar does show a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) associated with it. This MCV will move
across the region this afternoon and evening increasing coverage
and intensity of the storms.
The latest NAM soundings show MLCAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg north to
2000+ J/Kg across the southern valley. Hail CAPEs and WBZ heights suggest
isolated stronger storms could produce up to quarter inch. Enough
boundary layer winds and thermodynamic (DCAPEs of 500-700 J/kg) to
produce strong gusty winds. Also, PWs increasing this afternoon to
1.2 to 1.4 inches producing a threat of locally heavy rains.
Given the above, isolated strong to possible severe storms by mid
to late afternoon into the evening hours.
Post by: BRUCE on April 07, 2019, 11:19:53 AM
Post by: StormNine on April 07, 2019, 11:39:09 AM
The mid-week system probably doesn't have good enough moisture return.
There is a system next weekend that may have some more potential but again how far north does the richer moisture get to, or will be dynamic enough to where that won't be an issue?
The issue is our storms are still too close together and there is not enough time to allow for sufficient moisture return in between the storms (2005 and 2017 kinda had that problem). Once we get to Late April and May this pattern could lead to a Severe Weather/Tornado Sequence if it remains because you don't have to wait that long that time of year to build richer moisture/instability, but in Early April typically that is not the case.
Post by: Flash on April 07, 2019, 11:45:50 AM
if we can establish a nice healthy warm sector... system on 0zeuro has some serious legs to be a significant severe wx event with tornadoes late next week ::coffee:: worth keeping eye on
Great post! From the concise analysis to the prepositions! 8)
Post by: schneitzeit on April 07, 2019, 12:47:14 PM
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2019, 02:43:51 PM
Post Merge: April 07, 2019, 04:00:11 PM
And on cue, large, building cumulus have developed, and I hear the sound of distant thunder growling toward the mountains, as storms have developed there. Today feels like a preview of summertime.
Post Merge: April 07, 2019, 05:20:19 PM
Just endured our first intense round of storms in 2019. No warnings, but plenty of lightning, gusty winds and torrential rain. Cooled us down from 79 to 65. Good sleepin' weather.
Post by: StormNine on April 07, 2019, 05:46:15 PM
Meanwhile, the Mountain West is far from done as parts of Wyoming and Utah look to experience blizzard conditions with the midweek system with 10+ inches of snow and 50+MPH wind gusts. Anyone going to Vegas next week will likely have to deal with dust and or sandstorms as well. That one probably won't likely be very impactful for us but the system later on next weekend may need to be watched.
Post by: BRUCE on April 08, 2019, 05:40:57 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on April 08, 2019, 06:17:02 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day4prob_20190408_1200.gif)
Quote
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
By day 4 (Thursday), somewhat greater moisture will be advected
northward ahead of the surface low with dewpoints in the 50s F. It
still appears likely that a band of storms will develop along the
trailing cold front as this boundary intercepts the destabilizing
boundary layer across the middle MS, OH and TN Valleys. Despite an
expected marginal thermodynamic environment, some risk for damaging
wind will exist given strength of low-mid level winds and strong
vertical shear supportive of a few embedded meso-vortices and bowing
structures. Have introduced a 15% probability to account for this
possibility.
Post by: Beth on April 08, 2019, 06:22:07 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on April 08, 2019, 06:34:50 AM
EDIT: warning text says CONFIRMED tornado near Guntersville. I believe that is based on a TDS showing up on CC.
Post by: Thundersnow on April 08, 2019, 06:40:46 AM
Post by: JayCee on April 08, 2019, 07:13:26 AM
As an aside, you know we’ve turned a corner in spring when temperatures no longer drop significantly behind a weather system, although the front late in the week does have some cooler air behind it... upper 60s on Saturday as opposed to 70s. But, that's the only day not in the 70s to even near 80 some days.
This April looks more like true spring, as opposed to last year or the year before when we endured some really cold temperatures and hard freezes well into the month. No complaints here. This is better than staying in the 40's & 50's until May, then jumping to near 90 with nothing in between.
Post by: dwagner88 on April 08, 2019, 07:15:10 AM
Post by: Charles L. on April 08, 2019, 07:43:56 AM
Post by: BRUCE on April 08, 2019, 07:56:07 AM
This April looks more like true spring, as opposed to last year or the year before when we endured some really cold temperatures and hard freezes well into the month. No complaints here. This is better than staying in the 40's & 50's until May, then jumping to near 90 with nothing in between.agree with ... can we finally have a true spring for once ... April showers and some severe threats like old times ... brief cool spells after strong systems ...
Last April around this time we had snow flurries falling ... yuck
Post by: Charles L. on April 08, 2019, 08:05:10 AM
agree with ... can we finally have a true spring for once ... April showers and some severe threats like old times ... brief cool spells after strong systems ...
Last April around this time we had snow flurries falling ... yuck
Snow flurries??? What are those? We don’t have snow here. 😂
Post by: snowdog on April 08, 2019, 08:05:41 AM
Post by: mamMATTus on April 08, 2019, 08:26:24 AM
The GFS is bordering on excessive rainfall for the next 7 days. Almost 6” shown here.
Honestly I feel like it’s the new norm for Chattanooga
Post by: Curt on April 08, 2019, 09:27:57 AM
All of this is subject to change of course. If the surface low on the 15th storm system gets pulled back to the northwest some, then we can build a much richer atmosphere.
Post by: JayCee on April 08, 2019, 10:20:36 AM
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
At least we had a decent break, but if the heavy rain train moves back into town, it won't take long for flooding to reoccur. The ground may not be saturated any longer, but it's certainly not dry, either.
Post by: Susan on April 08, 2019, 12:18:18 PM
Post by: StormNine on April 08, 2019, 03:53:43 PM
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 06:41:34 AM
Post by: Curt on April 09, 2019, 06:50:32 AM
Hard hit Nebraska receiving 7 to locally near 20 inches of wet snow is not what the doctor ordered in that state with the upcoming system.There are 40-50 inch snow amounts showing up in SD to western MN- combined with blizzard conditions. Those people have to be so tired at this point. Those areas have probably logged one of if not the coldest of snowiest winters of their lifetime.
Post by: Curt on April 09, 2019, 06:52:12 AM
Very latest models r slowly trending slp further nw each run ... on late saturdays system ... increasing instability ... areas south I 40 May come into play for some severe weather late that night ... southern middle Tennessee probably has best shot for severe wx in the state ... 0z euro would be super cells in front of intense qlcs down further south ... ne miss and northern central Alabama ...
I will give you that as the warm front comes back through late Saturday night. Things could get dicey- at least will get loud with thunder and of course- heavy rain. It’s basically the like winter pattern is back again- just adjusted for spring.
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 06:56:16 AM
There are 40-50 inch snow amounts showing up in SD to western MN- combined with blizzard conditions. Those people have to be so tired at this point. Those areas have probably logged one of if not the coldest of snowiest winters of their lifetime.yeah good thing the NCAA championship game was last nite ... day two later... weather could have impacted that game ....
Post by: JayCee on April 09, 2019, 08:15:06 AM
(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1554815477)
We may be on pace to have another record wet year. Pretty amazing.
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2019, 09:18:35 AM
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 09:28:24 AM
ugh when will things get cranking....already had the WORST winter of my lifetime and not a hint of a "real" outbreak and it is almost mid aprilif you like severe weather. Both gfs and euro say hold on ... your chance is coming... very active times showing ahead ....
Post by: Crockett on April 09, 2019, 09:47:05 AM
ugh when will things get cranking....already had the WORST winter of my lifetime and not a hint of a "real" outbreak and it is almost mid april
That's hardly a bad thing.
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2019, 10:10:46 AM
That's hardly a bad thing.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/JmWCEiyTiKTMQ/giphy.gif)
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 10:12:05 AM
That's hardly a bad thing.yea... if you like pure boring weather... we seen enough that for most part state for quite awhile.... not hoping for bad destruction or etc. to property or lives... just time to see a uptick in some very exciting weather ...
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2019, 10:47:13 AM
Post by: Crockett on April 09, 2019, 10:51:21 AM
as I have said before NOBODY wants damage injuries etc...it is just fascinating to go through a severe outbreak and you always learn something new during every outbreak
Come on. You don't get an "outbreak" of severe weather without damage and injuries. It's literally impossible.
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 11:10:19 AM
as I have said before NOBODY wants damage injuries etc...it is just fascinating to go through a severe outbreak and you always learn something new during every outbreaki am sure glad I’m not the only one now that like violent weather ...
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2019, 11:12:18 AM
Come on. You don't get an "outbreak" of severe weather without damage and injuries. It's literally impossible.
everybody knows it is impossible to get an outbreak without damage or injuries around here ....but out in the plains it's possible with all of the miles of open fields:)
Post Merge: April 09, 2019, 11:14:09 AM
bruce I can almost guarantee 80-90 percent of meteorologists get into the field because they are fascinated by the extremes....tornadoes/hail/ hurricanes /blizzards etc....not the calm tranquil Hawaii weather, so we are not in the minority
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 11:25:27 AM
Post Merge: April 09, 2019, 11:29:34 AM
The 12z gfs continues tick further nw with slp placement ... something we got to watch see if trend or a hiccup
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2019, 11:30:40 AM
.... plenty time course ....
I'm convinced the "o" and "f" buttons on whatever keyboard/phone Bruce is using are broken and the spellcheck feature kicks out "of". Only reasonable explanation.
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 11:32:15 AM
I'm convinced the "o" and "f" buttons on whatever keyboard/phone Bruce is using are broken and the spellcheck feature kicks out "of". Only reasonable explanationthat will be correct homer... my bad
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2019, 11:35:06 AM
that will be correct homer... my bad
(https://media.giphy.com/media/3o7TKVUn7iM8FMEU24/giphy.gif)
Post by: Crockett on April 09, 2019, 11:53:14 AM
everybody knows it is impossible to get an outbreak without damage or injuries around here ....but out in the plains it's possible with all of the miles of open fields:)
Ah, I must've misread your post. I didn't realize you were rooting for a severe weather outbreak out in the open plains where no one would see it.
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2019, 11:57:44 AM
Ah, I must've misread your post. I didn't realize you were rooting for a severe weather outbreak out in the open plains where no one would see it.
LOL crockett ...I gotta give you props! your sarcasm was a thing of beauty on that one ::applause::
I wish more people good take some good sarcasm and not get tore up over it lol
Post by: Thundersnow on April 09, 2019, 12:56:48 PM
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2019, 01:14:21 PM
Y'all take a break from your bickering and step outside for a few. It's glorious out there! Sunny and pleasant, a hammock kind of day. That looks to be the case over the next couple of days. I took a walk on the lunch hour- invigorates to take on the rest of the day. 8)
We aren't bickering lol. crockett responded to me with a fantastic sarcastic line...I loved it, I am being serious I thought it was really funny and gave him some props!
Post by: Charles L. on April 09, 2019, 01:49:02 PM
Turn your head if you don’t like severe weather ... cause next weeks system 17th starting show some serious legs growing with that one .... plenty time course ....
Post Merge: April 09, 2019, 11:29:34 AM
The 12z gfs continues tick further nw with slp placement ... something we got to watch see if trend or a hiccup
Bruce, I thought it was the weekend system that was showing legs??? I can’t keep up.
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 01:57:26 PM
Bruce, I thought it was the weekend system that was showing legs??? I can’t keep up.the one this weekend going be a doozy itself correct... but it going favor the Dixie area... the second few days after 17th got my attention... course we got time for a lot changes ... just glad see little more action possibilities Charles
Post by: JayCee on April 09, 2019, 02:13:40 PM
Bruce, I thought it was the weekend system that was showing legs???
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/hEEs2P_vVBo/hqdefault.jpg)
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2019, 02:14:02 PM
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 02:19:27 PM
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/hEEs2P_vVBo/hqdefault.jpg)mmmm sexy...
Post by: Crockett on April 09, 2019, 02:25:03 PM
Or...we're just moving into a typical -- yet still somewhat subdued -- April weather pattern. I'll give Bruce credit, though. He can generate Day 7-9 fantasy outbreaks better than the GFS can generate Day 15 fantasy snowstorms, and the U.S. government has spent millions on that old computer.
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2019, 02:41:59 PM
MS and Alabama Southern and Central Ark on the other hand seem to be much more prone to actual supercell outbreaks , usually once a year at least and I honestly think "in my opinion" the only correlation is the fact that so many times here in Tennessee we get a rain shield prior to the event that slightly lessens the threat...?
Don't get me wrong we get plenty but just not as much as the "deep" south
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 02:52:06 PM
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2019, 03:32:11 PM
If next weeks threat still looks potent and credibility to it by Friday or Saturday ... I may start the thread on that baby... been long long long time I started one lol... I’m just chomping at the bit to start one ... Eric curt Jaycee crocket Steven? Dyer ? Ok? Lol
You do you, bruh...I got no time to track fantasy outbreaks. I've got 60 sheets of drywall sitting under a tarp on my front porch that need to be hung.
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 03:35:24 PM
You do you, bruh...I got no time to track fantasy outbreaks. I've got 60 sheets of drywall sitting under a tarp on my front porch that need to be hung.i can finish drywall Sheetrock Eric... need help bro ... you sound like you got job ahead of you ....
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2019, 03:38:00 PM
i can finish drywall Sheetrock Eric... need help bro ... you sound like you got job ahead of you ....
I can finish it, too. Problem is I don't want to. Guess if I hang 2-3 sheets a night and 4-5 on the weekend, I can have them hung in about 2-3 weeks. I'm not going to rush myself like I would've ten years ago...maybe five years ago, even. Slow and steady wins the race.
Post by: Thundersnow on April 09, 2019, 04:33:44 PM
*tries in vain to find those prepositions*
*as well as a few auxiliary verbs and the occasional conjunction*
Post by: andyhb on April 09, 2019, 08:34:31 PM
Also, yeah this weekend and next week are going to have to be watched, I will agree there. Ensemble guidance has a strong signal for a large longwave trough moving into the Central US and it would certainly make for some severe potential Tues-Thurs (most likely the latter two days in that stretch). One of the better signals at that range I've seen in awhile tbh.
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 08:47:54 PM
I can't read Bruce's posts worth a sh*t in here.sorry. Lol you know me .... get little carried away ... next week is going be interesting
Also, yeah this weekend and next week are going to have to be watched, I will agree there. Ensemble guidance has a strong signal for a large longwave trough moving into the Central US and it would certainly make for some severe potential Tues-Thurs (most likely the latter two days in that stretch). One of the better signals at that range I've seen in awhile tbh.
Post by: schneitzeit on April 09, 2019, 09:24:23 PM
I can't read Bruce's posts worth a sh*t in here.
some. severe outbreak... some time next week. Need. thread for system?... i dont know what mean when say can't read posts... any way... get ready for big svr wx outbreak.. mississipi... alabama... ark.. west tn. spot rotation week out...
Post by: mamMATTus on April 10, 2019, 07:20:30 AM
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2019, 07:28:37 AM
If you’re looking for SVR last night’s 00z run has it for Sunday.system next week is just down right nasty ... bulk shear is insane... plenty instability this one...
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2019, 09:38:48 AM
system next week is just down right nasty ... bulk shear is insane... plenty instability this one...
we have all seen STP numbers and other values maxed out over our area just 24 hours before the event....only to bust.
One week out from an event is not something I will trust just yet lol. But Bruce you are like me, grasping to any chance for something to track. Been SUCH a boring year so far
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2019, 12:28:58 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on April 10, 2019, 12:31:18 PM
12z gfs holds serve on a potential severe wx outbreak mid next week ... for ark. Tn ms. Ala...
LOL! This is almost exactly what my last post said, where I was speaking Bruce.
Post by: snowdog on April 10, 2019, 02:54:18 PM
12z gfs holds serve on a potential severe wx outbreak mid next week ... for ark. Tn ms. Ala...
The GFS is likely to show it raining doughnuts that far out, what is the Euro showing?
Post by: Eric on April 10, 2019, 03:50:07 PM
The GFS is likely to show it raining doughnuts that far out, what is the Euro showing?
(https://media.giphy.com/media/fQYiTxVVJnAn4wxZT8/giphy.gif)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 10, 2019, 04:05:06 PM
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2019, 04:22:04 PM
Things do look concerning for this weekend south and southwest of our area.so does next midweek... over a larger area... euro was concerning run still...
Post by: StormNine on April 10, 2019, 06:40:54 PM
By what I am seeing next week the mid-week system is worth a watch, but with the dismal 6-10 day record of the models, I will still remain a bit skeptical till we get to Sunday. Unlike the weekend system, we should easily be in the warm-sector with that system based on what is currently modeled.
Post by: Thundersnow on April 10, 2019, 10:01:49 PM
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2019, 10:19:29 PM
Post Merge: April 11, 2019, 05:41:05 AM
****. This pollen killing me already....
Post by: Charles L. on April 11, 2019, 06:36:06 AM
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2019, 06:45:00 AM
Kind of surprised the SPC didn’t go hatched with the risk zone for Saturday. They even mention the risk for significant tornadoes.yeah ... think they will go hatched eventually ... I can see Saturday being moderate risk over the 30 percent zone
Post by: JayCee on April 11, 2019, 07:36:20 AM
(http://www.vfh-walddorf.de/resources/hands_clapping.gif)
. . .and I'm enjoying every minute of it because we know what's coming. ::hot::
Post by: Eric on April 11, 2019, 08:13:26 AM
Post by: NismoWx on April 11, 2019, 10:37:56 AM
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2019, 11:42:38 AM
Post by: JTM1988 on April 11, 2019, 11:49:59 AM
12gfs is coming in real hot next week.. is a widespread outbreak .... lot model watching for this
Seems like further west (MO, AR, LA) on Wednesday has the greatest potential. While still sufficient, seems the EHI and Cape decrease a little bit with the Thursday event further east.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2019, 11:52:08 AM
cape Thursday still pushing close 1200 j ... for Thursday parts midsouth ....
Seems like further west (MO, AR, LA) on Wednesday has the greatest potential. While still sufficient, seems the EHI and Cape decrease a little bit with the Thursday event further east.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post Merge: April 11, 2019, 11:53:17 AM
cape Thursday still pushing close 1200 j ... for Thursday parts midsouth ....a lot going be hang on the timing of this one ... just little to far out still determine
Post by: JayCee on April 11, 2019, 11:57:28 AM
Post by: Crockett on April 11, 2019, 12:03:38 PM
We may not be done with cold weather. A cold shot with legs and possible freezing or frosty temps is showing up around 4/21. Even some snow possible in the higher elevations. :P
(https://media2.giphy.com/media/BWRvAkS36LxcSpPIjJ/giphy.gif)
Post by: wfrogge on April 11, 2019, 12:23:42 PM
Uploaded folder is full on this server. Get your own hodos ;)
Post by: Beth on April 11, 2019, 01:17:23 PM
We may not be done with cold weather. A cold shot with legs and possible freezing or frosty temps is showing up around 4/21. Even some snow possible in the higher elevations. :PIt better not happen! I have all my flowers and house plants out of my greenhouse. 😡 lol
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2019, 01:51:29 PM
our "best" I use that term as a catch 22 , severe chances are when there was no previous day convection to our south/west, and the storms "initiate" over our area
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2019, 01:58:12 PM
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 11, 2019, 03:19:49 PM
Post by: Drifter49 on April 11, 2019, 03:23:13 PM
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: snowdog on April 11, 2019, 03:29:23 PM
Post by: JayCee on April 11, 2019, 05:36:10 PM
It better not happen! I have all my flowers and house plants out of my greenhouse. 😡 lol
Considering every tree around my house is now leafing out thanks to the 80 degree weather, I certainly don't want another hard freeze this late! Cooler weather maybe, but nothing below freezing, please.
Post Merge: April 11, 2019, 05:43:17 PM
Some higher elevation snowfall possible if the GFS is correct around that day 8-10 in East Mountains. Easy chase as most trailheads would stay liquid. Above 850mb could squeeze out some fat sticky flake. Would make amazing pictures with the Rhodo
If nothing else, mountain weather (even in east TN) is rarely boring. Winds are gusting up there tonight to 60mph.
Post by: NashRugger on April 11, 2019, 07:18:15 PM
We may not be done with cold weather. A cold shot with legs and possible freezing or frosty temps is showing up around 4/21. Even some snow possible in the higher elevations. :PThe good thing is that just the week prior was modeled to be a lot colder than it has been and I fully expect models to back off the cold again.
Post by: wfrogge on April 11, 2019, 09:32:11 PM
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 12, 2019, 01:11:12 AM
Post by: MSR041933 on April 12, 2019, 04:38:36 AM
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2019, 05:24:04 AM
It appears to be dynamics driven as low-level lapse rates are not as impressive so likely damaging winds will be the main threat with a line or broken lines of storms. Isolated tornadoes are also possible.
Tomorrow from Arklatex to Arklamiss looks quite impressive. If the storm mode is able to stay discrete and they avoid a messy storm mode then strong to violent tornadoes are possible across that area.
Post by: JayCee on April 12, 2019, 07:30:26 AM
Quote
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms are anticipated Sunday -- centered over
the mid and upper Ohio Valley, and central and southern
Appalachians.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid- and upper-level trough exiting the Plains early in the
period is expected to advance steadily east across the
Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and central Gulf Coast states,
reaching a position from the lower Great Lakes to the southern
Appalachians/Southeast late in the period.
At the surface, a deepening low is forecast to shift east-northeast
across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then across the central
Appalachians to the Hudson Valley vicinity by the end of the period.
Widespread thunderstorms -- and a broad severe risk -- will
accompany this system.
...The Ohio Valley and central Appalachians south to the
Southeast...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing in a
north-south band from Indiana to Alabama early in the period, ahead
of the advancing cold front. As modest heating of a moistening
pre-frontal warm sector commences, 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE
is expected to evolve ahead of the ongoing band of convection, from
the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. This should result in a gradual
intensification of storms through the afternoon, aided by a very
strong deep-layer wind field accompanying this storm system --
including 80 to 100 kt south-southwest flow at mid levels.
Primary storm mode is progged to be banded/loosely linear, with
embedded/complex bows and rotating updrafts. Damaging winds will
likely be the primary threat, though tornadoes will also be possible
across much of the area -- particularly near and west of the
mountains. Risk should diminish gradually through the evening,
though local wind risk may persist through the end of the period.
East TN is not often in the bulls-eye of the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather forecast, so when we are, I sit up and take notice.
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on April 12, 2019, 11:40:18 AM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 12, 2019, 12:38:11 PM
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2019, 01:08:20 PM
Good grief. The HRR is downright scary for Louisiana and south Arkansas tomorrow. Tried to post pic but will not let me.
south ark/Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama have definitely been the big "winner/loser" in the past decade as far as dixie alley goes hands down. We seem to be on the fringes in the past few years which I guess is not a bad thing
Post by: cgauxknox on April 12, 2019, 02:20:38 PM
East TN is not often in the bulls-eye of the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather forecast, so when we are, I sit up and take notice.I'm the same way. It's certainly warmed up and gotten windy this afternoon ahead of the system. I'm glad the ground has had some opportunity to dry out and that the trees aren't fully leafed out yet; the combination of those two factors may save us some damage and power outages with this system. I think Sunday is going to be a good one to stay home and read a good book while things go crazy outside.
Post by: JayCee on April 12, 2019, 02:46:36 PM
(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1555098203)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 12, 2019, 04:24:33 PM
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2019, 04:55:41 PM
Post by: wfrogge on April 12, 2019, 07:11:34 PM
Shreveport Monroe north Alexandria ....looks quite quite dangerous....I believe there "might" be a chance of a small high risk zone down that way tomorrow
Fairly confident we get one. The question is does it come with the first day one or the second outlook
Post by: JayCee on April 12, 2019, 11:00:24 PM
Post by: BRUCE on April 13, 2019, 02:24:08 AM
Summer's a 'comin. Saw the first lightning bugs tonight.wow that’s awful early for seeing those flying around... to much of the ole popcorn Sutton juice? Lol
Post by: Thundersnow on April 13, 2019, 05:22:09 AM
Post by: BRUCE on April 13, 2019, 06:38:25 AM
Beyond this weekend’s activity, the SPC is already painting large risk areas for next week. The Day 6 risk covers nearly the whole state for Thursday.shoudlnt be a shock ... models coming agreement ....
Post by: mamMATTus on April 13, 2019, 07:01:58 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on April 13, 2019, 07:16:54 AM
Post by: StormNine on April 13, 2019, 07:47:49 AM
Post by: schneitzeit on April 13, 2019, 08:53:47 AM
Summer's a 'comin. Saw the first lightning bugs tonight.
Already? Wow. They don't normally come out until May.
Post by: BRUCE on April 13, 2019, 11:26:09 AM
Post Merge: April 13, 2019, 12:23:31 PM
If 12zgfs verifies. High risk for parts midsouth per verbatim ... winds backed just perfect ... directional shear ....broading base trough .... with cape pushing 2000j ....
Post by: Hank W on April 13, 2019, 01:53:46 PM
An analog starting see early is March 21 1952... ouch... on next weeks systemStart the thread!
Post Merge: April 13, 2019, 12:23:31 PM
If 12zgfs verifies. High risk for parts midsouth per verbatim ... winds backed just perfect ... directional shear ....broading base trough .... with cape pushing 2000j ....
Post by: JayCee on April 13, 2019, 04:12:32 PM
Already? Wow. They don't normally come out until May.
I was pretty surprised myself. I live in a deeply wooded area, and I usually see them sooner compared to the suburbs or the city, but this is early even for me.
I did some research. Firefly emergence depends strongly on temperature and soil moisture, and they love wet conditions. I suppose our recent long stretch of very wet and mild weather could be playing a part in some appearing extremely early, just like with the mosquitoes I noticed back in February.
Post by: Curt on April 14, 2019, 01:50:33 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 15, 2019, 06:41:01 AM
Post by: JHart on April 15, 2019, 07:13:12 AM
What lengths Mother Nature will go to each spring to kill my wisteria buds.
Post by: JayCee on April 16, 2019, 07:11:18 AM
Looks like another cold shot (by spring standards) coming this Saturday. Going from 80 on Thursday, to 56 on Saturday, then back to 70 on Easter. Typical April weather in Tennessee.
The late week system looks interesting for the mountains of east TN/NC. Strong system wrapping up nearby may bring high elevations some decent spring snow Saturday.
Post by: schneitzeit on April 16, 2019, 12:26:41 PM
Post by: JayCee on April 16, 2019, 06:02:18 PM
Quote
The trough will begin to take on a negative tilt Friday night with
strong divergence aloft before transitioning to a cut off low. A
TROWAL and deformation zone will develop over the area around the
newly formed cut off low. The more eastern warm air will be pulled
around the low and ride up over the wedge of cold air at the surface
and produce more rain overnight. Combined with the increasing cold
air advection reducing the temperatures, some areas of higher
elevation are likely to see snow and higher winds develop for Friday
night.
The cut off low will persist for much of Saturday with cool, wet,
windy conditions for most of eastern Tennessee while elevations over
3000 feet look to remain cold with snow. The main forcing
mechanism`s for the precipitation will be orographic lift, the
TROWAL and deformation zone. The Euro shows a break from the rain
for the more southwestern counties, the GFS and Canadian models
maintain the precip potential until Saturday night. The low looks
to finally move off to the northeast by Sunday morning, with
increased warm air advection from the southwest and higher
pressure moving in behind it.
Post by: Thundersnow on April 20, 2019, 07:46:49 AM
After today’s chilly, damp weather, I love it’s already a memory by tomorrow with temps back in the 70s.
Post by: StormNine on April 20, 2019, 12:33:40 PM
El-Nino springs typically can get pretty active severe weather wise in May and Early June so I don't think we are done with that threat at this time, but we shouldn't have to worry about it for at least the next 7-10 days.
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 20, 2019, 01:18:31 PM
Alright, let’s bring this thread back to the top.
After today’s chilly, damp weather, I love it’s already a memory by tomorrow with temps back in the 70s.
70's during the day, 50's at night would be good for the next 3 weeks. But we all know how this will play out as soon as the middle of May comes around.
Post by: JHart on April 20, 2019, 04:57:59 PM
Where was this ULL in January?
… well, there I said it.
Post by: JayCee on April 20, 2019, 06:03:09 PM
Post Merge: April 21, 2019, 06:18:12 AM
It looks like we get back on the fast track toward spring today. Hope everyone enjoys a beautiful and blessed Easter Sunday.
Post by: JHart on April 21, 2019, 06:35:54 AM
Good bye, Winter of 18/19. Really … good bye. I am shoving you onto the driver's seat, slamming the door, and giving the car a shove.
Post by: snowdog on April 21, 2019, 09:44:26 AM
Today's high was 50 with gusty winds and light rain. After today, I'll probably never see weather like this again until October or November, so I won't complain. Three months from now I might be wishing for a day like this.
Truth. Snowdog enjoyed winter's last gasp this weekend. It always seems like it takes forever to get that first cool front in late Sept/early October.
Till then, about time to hit the pool, throw some cornhole, shoot some fireworks and drink a few beers. Hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable summer.
Post by: JayCee on April 21, 2019, 10:45:29 AM
Truth. Snowdog enjoyed winter's last gasp this weekend. It always seems like it takes forever to get that first cool front in late Sept/early October.
Till then, about time to hit the pool, throw some cornhole, shoot some fireworks and drink a few beers. Hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable summer.
And BBQ. Summer's not summer without some lip-smackin' Memphis style BBQ to complement the beer you mentioned.
Post by: Crockett on April 21, 2019, 11:15:30 AM
And BBQ. Summer's not summer without some lip-smackin' Memphis style BBQ to complement the beer you mentioned.
Unpopular opinion: BBQ is severely overrated.
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2019, 11:36:37 AM
And BBQ. Summer's not summer without some lip-smackin' Memphis style BBQ to complement the beer you mentioned.i would rather have me a good mess of crappie fillet s .. French fries and white beans and some good ole hush puppies yum yum ...
Post by: JayCee on April 21, 2019, 11:42:07 AM
Post Merge: April 21, 2019, 07:35:03 PM
Summer is fast approaching. I heard my first Chuck's will's widow (a close relative of the eastern Whippoorwill) this evening from the woods behind the house. A perfect ending to a perfect day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck-will%27s-widow (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck-will%27s-widow)
Post by: snowdog on April 22, 2019, 06:41:15 AM
Unpopular opinion: BBQ is severely overrated.
Lol, I always had my doubts about Crockett. ::shrug::
Post Merge: April 22, 2019, 06:42:16 AM
And BBQ. Summer's not summer without some lip-smackin' Memphis style BBQ to complement the beer you mentioned.
True, I should've added grillin' and smokin' to my list.
Post by: schneitzeit on April 22, 2019, 07:28:47 AM
Unpopular opinion: BBQ is severely overrated.
Communist
Post by: JayCee on April 22, 2019, 07:36:17 AM
Enjoy these nights in the 50's. The can't last forever.
Post by: Crockett on April 22, 2019, 09:08:49 AM
After a short interlude, it's back to spring with very comfortable temperatures from 75-80, and cool nights in the 50's, making for perfect sleeping weather. I have to say, this April is one of the best I've seen in a long time despite a few cold hiccups here and there--which is normal for April. Compared to the last two springs, this one makes the grade.
Enjoy these nights in the 50's. The can't last forever.
I was starting to think the seasons of spring and fall had become extinct. It's been kinda nice to have a true spring season this year.
Post Merge: April 22, 2019, 09:11:46 AM
Communist
Meh. If that meat was really worth eating, it wouldn't have to be slathered with all that BBQ sauce. And it wouldn't have to be cooked so long to get all the nastiness out. I think the point of BBQ is to take the absolute worst cuts of meat you can get from a pig or a cow and slather it in sauce to make it taste better.
I mean, it's not terrible. It's edible. It's meat, after all, which makes it better than green leafy stuff or roots. But a filet of fish, a ribeye, pan-fried chicken, et cetera and so on, are all better options.
Post by: Thundersnow on April 22, 2019, 09:19:36 AM
I was starting to think the seasons of spring and fall had become extinct. It's been kinda nice to have a true spring season this year.
Post Merge: April 22, 2019, 09:11:46 AM
Meh. If that meat was really worth eating, it wouldn't have to be slathered with all that BBQ sauce. And it wouldn't have to be cooked so long to get all the nastiness out. I think the point of BBQ is to take the absolute worst cuts of meat you can get from a pig or a cow and slather it in sauce to make it taste better.
I mean, it's not terrible. It's edible. It's meat, after all, which makes it better than green leafy stuff or roots. But a filet of fish, a ribeye, pan-fried chicken, et cetera and so on, are all better options.
I'm a BBQ fan, but not a fan of excessive sauce.
If it's smoked/cooked properly, it doesn't need sauce.
I like my ribs with dry rub.
Post by: gcbama on April 22, 2019, 09:33:41 AM
always a chance that early to mid may could bring something but not as likely
Post by: JayCee on April 22, 2019, 09:41:47 AM
I'm a BBQ fan, but not a fan of excessive sauce.
If it's smoked/cooked properly, it doesn't need sauce.
I like my ribs with dry rub.
Exactly! With good cuts of meat cooked perfectly, and just a little sauce on the bun, you can't beat it with a heaping helping of crispy fries.
I've made myself hungry thinking about it. ::bacon::
Post by: StormNine on April 23, 2019, 07:23:32 PM
2019 has been a pretty active year for some areas. Not so much for many others.
Post by: schneitzeit on April 23, 2019, 07:40:41 PM
I was starting to think the seasons of spring and fall had become extinct. It's been kinda nice to have a true spring season this year.
Post Merge: April 22, 2019, 09:11:46 AM
Meh. If that meat was really worth eating, it wouldn't have to be slathered with all that BBQ sauce. And it wouldn't have to be cooked so long to get all the nastiness out. I think the point of BBQ is to take the absolute worst cuts of meat you can get from a pig or a cow and slather it in sauce to make it taste better.
I mean, it's not terrible. It's edible. It's meat, after all, which makes it better than green leafy stuff or roots. But a filet of fish, a ribeye, pan-fried chicken, et cetera and so on, are all better options.
Ah, so you dislike barbecue and vegetables.
Post by: Charles L. on April 23, 2019, 07:46:15 PM
(Attachment Link)
2019 has been a pretty active year for some areas. Not so much for many others.
Yep. Honestly, looking at the big picture, it hasn’t been a slow start. I, for one, am glad we are missing out. I can watch it from afar!
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2019, 07:49:25 PM
(Attachment Link)wouldnt suprise me our severe wx or rather lack of i should say... may just be over already ... jet already showing signs heading pretty far north long range... time for the old pulse type and mcs season I guess ... high cape events no shear type stuff ....
2019 has been a pretty active year for some areas. Not so much for many others.
Post by: harlequin on April 23, 2019, 08:55:10 PM
Meanwhile, in the Bay Area today we had a record hot day. It didn't get this hot last summer.
Quote
93 Santa Rosa > 90 in 1946
89 Hollister > 84 in 2004
88 KSFO > 85 in 1959
88 KNUQ > 86 in 1946
87 Carmel Valley > 85 in 1966
87 Oakland Museum > 80 in 1999
92 King City == 92, 1977
91 Gilroy == 91, 1987
90 Redwood City == 90, 1946
Quote
Several weather stations in the North Bay hills above 1500 feet are reporting 5 am temperatures from 70-75 degrees. These warm temperatures will quickly mix down to the surface this morning. Afternoon highs from 85-90 across the North Bay valleys
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 24, 2019, 06:37:43 AM
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2019, 06:52:33 AM
We had a 3.6 earthquake in Dyersburg a few minutes ago. If that was a 3.6 , I would hate to feel a 6.0. It felt like the whole house moved 2 feet. ::wow::yeah I’m at work outside today... felt a little jolt myself ...
Post by: TNHunter on April 24, 2019, 07:09:52 AM
Post by: Crockett on April 24, 2019, 07:21:23 AM
Ah, so you dislike barbecue and vegetables.
Not all of them. Just the ones that lack starch. ;)
Post by: JayCee on April 24, 2019, 07:23:54 AM
Post by: spanarkle08 on April 24, 2019, 08:58:00 AM
Post by: NismoWx on April 24, 2019, 01:32:12 PM
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
Post by: bugalou on April 24, 2019, 05:17:56 PM
That's the New Madrid fault firing off. Unrelated to the quakes in Eastern TN. I'd pay attention to the next few days if I lived up there.
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
I just posted this in the geology section.
Post by: NismoWx on April 25, 2019, 08:06:23 AM
Add that to the list of sites I've seen. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190425/8506799507e7a189f7d8e973f34e9fea.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190425/22ba536e5df839077c86c8f8dbe426c3.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190425/f2f58b3686b2d5fca61b2fa9f3e76831.jpg)
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
Post by: JayCee on April 26, 2019, 08:17:54 AM
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2019, 03:26:46 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on April 26, 2019, 03:37:05 PM
5-10 inches of snow in Chicago tomorrow night? Very possible and would be the most that late in history.
Fox News will be saying this is evidence against global warming in nothing flat.
Post by: Crockett on April 26, 2019, 07:11:07 PM
Fox News will be saying this is evidence against global warming in nothing flat.
While CNN will be proclaiming it as evidence in favor of AGW.
Post by: JayCee on April 27, 2019, 07:01:35 AM
Quote
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...Rain transitioning to a heavy, very wet snow by noon,
then continuing into this evening. Total snow accumulations of 3
to 7 inches will be possible by this evening, with the highest
amounts across northern portions of Ogle and DeKalb counties.
Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible for
several hours this afternoon into this evening. Northeast winds
will also gust as high as 35 mph late this afternoon and
evening.
In late April they can have it.
And today is the day. Hard to believe 8 long years ago east TN was about to experience a tornado outbreak like none other in recent history. I will never forget it.
https://www.weather.gov/mrx/april272011outbreak (https://www.weather.gov/mrx/april272011outbreak)
Post by: JHart on April 27, 2019, 07:29:19 AM
Post by: schneitzeit on April 27, 2019, 08:28:36 AM
While CNN will be proclaiming it as evidence in favor of AGW.I guess I wouldn't know. The only time I have ever watched CNN was during a flight delay at the Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson Airport. ::rofl::
Post by: JayCee on April 27, 2019, 10:45:18 AM
With the AO negative, the NAO forecast to go strongly negative, and the PNA forecast to go positive, I suspect we have a few more frosty nights in store over the next two weeks.
What cruel irony that what we needed 3 months ago finally shows up in the middle of spring.
Post by: StormNine on April 27, 2019, 05:41:24 PM
The epic winter that won't quit in the Midwest.
In late April they can have it.
And today is the day. Hard to believe 8 long years ago east TN was about to experience a tornado outbreak like none other in recent history. I will never forget it.
https://www.weather.gov/mrx/april272011outbreak (https://www.weather.gov/mrx/april272011outbreak)
I love tracking severe storms and tornadoes but I would be 100% fine with never seeing anything like 4/27/2011 ever again.
April 27th also featured some pretty rough severe weather days in Kentucky (1970 or 71) and Arkansas (2014).
Post by: Crockett on April 28, 2019, 10:34:35 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on April 28, 2019, 10:51:03 PM
It sure has dried up in a hurry. I'm not complaining. This has been one of the most pleasant spring seasons I can recall. Although I don't truly mind the heat and would actually prefer it to be a little warmer than it has been in April, we also haven't had much in the way of cold snaps, so I'll take it.
We're going to approach 90 in Knoxville on Tuesday. You and I may be different, but that **** sure is hot enough for me in April.
Post Merge: April 28, 2019, 10:51:44 PM
ETA: do we really censor "damñ"?
Well, now I know.
Post by: JayCee on April 29, 2019, 08:47:10 AM
As long as we don't completely dry out, I'm enjoying the recent drier and sunnier times. I hope we get at least a half inch of rain this coming Friday for newly planted bushes, trees, and a few tomato plants I'm setting out this week.
Post by: Curt on April 29, 2019, 09:35:11 AM
Post by: cgauxknox on April 29, 2019, 11:45:15 AM
I'm also glad we aren't dealing with high temps just yet. We're having our ductwork replaced this week and it was torn out this morning so we've got a couple of window units to keep the house cool until at least Thursday afternoon and maybe Friday. The stuff we're replacing was installed when they built the house in 1968; nothing lasts anymore... ::shrug::
Post by: JayCee on April 29, 2019, 05:34:03 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on April 29, 2019, 06:08:35 PM
Heat and summer go hand in hand in Tennessee, but cool-ish summers do happen from time to time. As long as we don't have a summer similar to 2007, 2012 or 2016, then I won't complain. . .much.
August 2007 in particular was awful.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 30, 2019, 01:38:32 PM
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2019, 02:06:37 PM
For the first time in a while , it feels juicy outside. DP is 70.yeah... were is the shear at now when you need it? Lol
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2019, 02:14:01 PM
https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/2889314801209756/
Post by: schneitzeit on April 30, 2019, 02:18:53 PM
Holy ::poo:: .....
https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/2889314801209756/
Did you see the birds flying in it? Lol!
Post by: cgauxknox on April 30, 2019, 02:56:33 PM
Holy ::poo:: .....That poof when it crossed the pond and sucked a bunch of water up ::wow::
https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/2889314801209756/
I didn't watch the whole thing but it appeared to stay in open country and not damage any homes so I feel OK just being amazed at the phenomenon guessing that nobody was hurt.
Post by: memphishogfan on April 30, 2019, 03:26:49 PM
yeah... were is the shear at now when you need it? Lol
Like the old teases of winter.
I-44
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2019, 03:47:44 PM
Post by: memphishogfan on April 30, 2019, 03:55:53 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5bZlvnW4AA3U_s.jpg)
Post by: Thundersnow on April 30, 2019, 04:37:41 PM
Holy ::poo:: .....
https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/2889314801209756/
Best. Tornado. Video. Ever.
Post by: StormNine on April 30, 2019, 05:14:55 PM
Post by: JayCee on May 01, 2019, 06:19:14 AM
Holy ::poo:: .....
https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/2889314801209756/
I think this is the first tornado video I've ever seen from a drone. Pretty amazing view you can't get from ground level.
Post by: mamMATTus on May 01, 2019, 12:47:17 PM
Post by: JayCee on May 01, 2019, 02:11:39 PM
I think this is the first tornado video I've ever seen from a drone. Pretty amazing view you can't get from ground level.
Actually, the more I watched this (it was hard not to watch over and over), the more I thought I had seen something like this before. Not quite the same, but similar. Then I remembered this:
https://youtu.be/WrK2ytxS83w (https://youtu.be/WrK2ytxS83w)
Probably only children of the 80's would remember that one. "Get your VCR machine going!" ::rofl::
Post by: Greyhound on May 01, 2019, 02:15:02 PM
https://www.wate.com/news/local-news/authorities-responding-to-north-knoxville-fire/1970373194
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2019, 02:21:23 PM
Big recycling plant fire in Knoxville right now.you know it’s s slow severe wx season going for Us when talking bout a industry on 🔥... hate to hear and hope all goes well at the location of fire ... but Jesus ... this weather can’t be anymore boring than it has been lately ....
https://www.wate.com/news/local-news/authorities-responding-to-north-knoxville-fire/1970373194
Post by: JayCee on May 01, 2019, 02:23:38 PM
Big recycling plant fire in Knoxville right now.
https://www.wate.com/news/local-news/authorities-responding-to-north-knoxville-fire/1970373194
Wow, MRX radar shows the smoke plume.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MRX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
(https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MRX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
Post by: schneitzeit on May 01, 2019, 02:29:13 PM
Big recycling plant fire in Knoxville right now.
https://www.wate.com/news/local-news/authorities-responding-to-north-knoxville-fire/1970373194
Word is that no one was hurt, but this might take days to put out.
Post by: cgauxknox on May 01, 2019, 02:38:22 PM
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2019, 03:09:29 PM
Wow, MRX radar shows the smoke plume.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MRX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
(https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MRX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
(http://i68.tinypic.com/2nvk10.png)
Post by: Crockett on May 01, 2019, 03:39:13 PM
you know it’s s slow severe wx season going for Us when talking bout a industry on 🔥... hate to hear and hope all goes well at the location of fire ... but Jesus ... this weather can’t be anymore boring than it has been lately ....
Burned down or leveled by a tornado. What's the damned difference? >:D ::whistling::
Post by: gcbama on May 01, 2019, 04:31:25 PM
I have a feeling summer will be miserable this year :(
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2019, 05:08:16 PM
Burned down or leveled by a tornado. What's the damned difference? >:D ::whistling::one is by fire... other is tornado damaging winds ... that’s called weather ....
Post by: schneitzeit on May 01, 2019, 08:34:22 PM
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2019, 10:01:03 PM
I may be in the minority here, but I couldn't care less if we have severe weather here or not. If I wanted to live under the near-constant threat of severe weather in the spring, I'd move to Oklahoma.definetly minority.... yes... especially if you like weather
Post by: Eric on May 02, 2019, 07:58:11 AM
you know it’s s slow severe wx season going for Us when talking bout a industry on 🔥... hate to hear and hope all goes well at the location of fire ... but Jesus ... this weather can’t be anymore boring than it has been lately ....
It was a topic of discussion not because the thing was burning, but because the smoke plume was clearly evident on radar. Last time I checked, radar was still an instrument used by the meteorological enterprise. Everyday can't be a wedgefest, Bruce.
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 08:06:28 AM
It was a topic of discussion not because the thing was burning, but because the smoke plume was clearly evident on radar. Last time I checked, radar was still an instrument used by the meteorological enterprise. Everyday can't be a wedgefest, Bruce.
We are under a 2% tornado risk zone today. If I don’t see, at least, 5 wedges then I am calling it a BUST!
Post by: JayCee on May 02, 2019, 08:44:02 AM
Post by: snowdog on May 02, 2019, 08:45:29 AM
We are under a 2% tornado risk zone today. If I don’t see, at least, 5 wedges then I am calling it a BUST!
Today is your lucky day....
(https://eschooltoday.com/science/simple-machines/images/what-is-a-wedge-simple-machine.jpg)
(https://jf-na-cdn.justfab.com/media/images/products/WE1825573-0001/WE1825573-0001-2_295x430.jpg)
(https://pingmediastage.azureedge.net/mediastorage/mediastorage/ping-na/medialibrary/clubs/wedges/glide/glide_wedge_mouseover_300x300.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/hneJsd5.jpg)
(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/513kVuXwt%2BL.jpg)
Post by: JayCee on May 02, 2019, 09:19:37 AM
http://a.msn.com/04/en-us/AAALL9W?ocid=se (http://a.msn.com/04/en-us/AAALL9W?ocid=se)
(https://kercommunications.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/throw-away.jpg)
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2019, 01:41:39 PM
Post by: c_phillips on May 02, 2019, 01:53:37 PM
Little Rock area is under a tornado warning currently little rotation with cell
The storm spawning that tornado warning is impressive on radar. It looks to have transformed into a meso low.
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 01:56:09 PM
Little Rock area is under a tornado warning currently little rotation with cell
Yep, and that area isn’t even under a Marginal risk for severe storms today.
Post by: Eric on May 02, 2019, 01:59:14 PM
The storm spawning that tornado warning is impressive on radar. It looks to have transformed into a meso low.
Nah, just the surface low.
(http://i68.tinypic.com/2m3gsx3.gif)
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 01:59:30 PM
Post by: Eric on May 02, 2019, 01:59:56 PM
Yep, and that area isn’t even under a Marginal risk for severe storms today.
Amazing what an area of low pressure can do....and its only 1014mb, at that.
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 02:06:57 PM
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2019, 02:09:29 PM
Maybe I'm wrong but it looks like all those storms along the line are getting their act together even up to around Newportyep feeding off the instability ... really soupy out now ...
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 02:10:04 PM
Maybe I'm wrong but it looks like all those storms along the line are getting their act together even up to around Newport
I am noticing that too. One near Tuckerman definitely needs to be watched closely.
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 02:16:53 PM
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2019, 02:17:00 PM
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 02:19:16 PM
Meso discussion now out over eastern ark 40 percent chance of watch issuance
They just issued a TOR Watch for eastern AR and one county in the MO bootheel.
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 02:21:37 PM
Post Merge: May 02, 2019, 02:31:46 PM
Well that was fun while it lasted. Guess its back to work.
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 02:38:46 PM
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2019, 02:43:44 PM
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 02:48:08 PM
The Plateau is starting to light up too with SVR warnings. Definitely gained some steam over that way in the last ~30 minutes.
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 03:05:36 PM
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2019, 03:09:58 PM
SPC said the window was very narrow for SVR in NEA so I doubt they push an enhanced if things are trending downwardthey did keep it slight risk... but went with 5 percent probs for most east ark extreme west tn
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 03:12:52 PM
Post by: JayCee on May 02, 2019, 04:45:24 PM
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 04:52:32 PM
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 05:13:48 PM
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 05:17:18 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 02, 2019, 05:41:26 PM
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 05:56:22 PM
Also a solid area of rotation in NW Dyer County moving towards Ridgely.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 02, 2019, 06:51:53 PM
Post by: StormNine on May 02, 2019, 07:03:09 PM
Post Merge: May 02, 2019, 07:04:59 PM
[attachimg=1]
Post by: cgauxknox on May 02, 2019, 07:41:47 PM
They were piling up as high as they could go over Knoxville this evening, although no storms so far.
A large cumulonimbus towering in the sky is always awe inspiring to me
https://photos.app.goo.gl/qArTbHoBzoextCzSA
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 08:27:33 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 02, 2019, 08:45:05 PM
Post Merge: May 02, 2019, 08:49:15 PM
[attachimg=1][attachimg=3]
Post by: WXHD on May 03, 2019, 06:50:10 AM
Post by: Eric on May 03, 2019, 07:08:25 AM
(Attachment Link) I’m alive. Trying to get pics to upload. Sure wish we could post videos.
Post Merge: May 02, 2019, 08:49:15 PM
(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)
(http://i64.tinypic.com/20z2zif.jpg)
Post by: JayCee on May 03, 2019, 07:17:53 AM
Just under 1/2in overnight. My yard was happy to drink it up.
It's amazing that despite how wet we were for a 6 month period, just a few weeks of a strengthening spring sun pulls the excess moisture right back out. Not to mention all the trees soaking it up as lush spring growth emerges.
Post by: mamMATTus on May 03, 2019, 09:00:42 AM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 03, 2019, 09:12:31 AM
Post by: JayCee on May 03, 2019, 12:03:33 PM
Post by: dwagner88 on May 03, 2019, 07:56:00 PM
Post by: JayCee on May 04, 2019, 06:42:40 AM
I plan on firing up the grill, making some cold drinks, and throwing some steaks on the fire while watching nature's show from the porch. Ah, now that's a perfect Saturday!
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2019, 06:58:58 AM
Post by: mamMATTus on May 04, 2019, 07:58:04 AM
Post by: dwagner88 on May 04, 2019, 09:52:29 AM
Post by: JayCee on May 04, 2019, 12:42:11 PM
It's pretty obvious where the greatest instability is by looking at the radar. While heavy rain is occurring north of I-40, areas south of there are in true convection.
Wind is gusting over 25-30mph and I'm amazed at how dark it is at the moment. It's as dark as 8:30 or so at night after the sun sets. ::candle:: The rain is blinding currently. I can't see across the street.
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2019, 01:26:06 PM
Post by: JayCee on May 04, 2019, 01:43:32 PM
Quote
TNC029-041900-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190504T1900Z/
Cocke TN-
227 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR COCKE COUNTY...
At 227 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Newport, moving
northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
Newport, Parrottsville, Bybee, Del Rio, Round Mountain, Cosby,
Hartford and Max Patch.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
&&
I witnessed the wind and rain, but didn't see the hail. In the meantime, it's time to start on the steaks!
Post Merge: May 04, 2019, 01:50:17 PM
Thursday afternoon might have some teeth around here. Decent instability shows up from morning into afternoon. One thing looks more certain- another 2-3 inch rain event. After that - well below normal temp. This might be my favorite spring.
A wet late spring usually equates to a cooler summer. Wet ground, along with lush vegetation full of water, usually keeps a death ridge from developing and living long in that location--at least early on (June-July). I'm not complaining!
Post by: BRUCE on May 05, 2019, 06:57:58 AM
Post by: JayCee on May 05, 2019, 07:10:21 AM
Post by: BRUCE on May 05, 2019, 02:32:22 PM
Post by: JayCee on May 05, 2019, 02:46:23 PM
Quote
Ahead of this low
pressure system...southerly flow will increase low level moisture
and a minor impulse in the upper flow will produce a chance of
convection across the region during the Wednesday afternoon/evening
time frame. The cold front will push in on Thursday. At this
point...deep moisture will be in place and with significant
additional moisture accompanying the front...expect to see a well
organized line of thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall.
Post Merge: May 05, 2019, 04:49:49 PM
No sign of extreme summer heat on the horizon.
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif)
Post Merge: May 05, 2019, 07:16:26 PM
Very little drought to speak of going into late spring. Never a bad thing in May.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/)
Post by: gcbama on May 05, 2019, 08:29:42 PM
spc starting to mention super cells firing out in front of the frontal boundary Thursday... shear values now showing 40 60 knts on models... cape values on models reaching 2500... this one may be finally have chance to get interesting for us... ::coffee::
LOL bruce….I am not biting yet after our past busts over 72 hours out...BUT it does bear watching :) If by tomorrow evening it still is showing up this way, I may take a few nibbles :)
Post by: JayCee on May 06, 2019, 07:34:24 AM
Post by: Eric on May 06, 2019, 07:51:03 AM
Post by: JayCee on May 06, 2019, 08:10:21 AM
Quote
On Thursday, shortwave energy originating from the longwave trough
across the Western CONUS will lead to PVA and height falls across
the forecast area. A surface low will also track northeast from the
Great Plains to the Great Lakes by Thursday night with a trailing
cold front. The NAEFS and ECMWF show PW values near 1.5 to 1.7
inches late Thursday, which is near the 95th percentile. While this
would seem to favor a heavy rain and localized flooding threat,
there are a few mitigating factors that could limit overall QPF.
First, the surface low and best forcing is north of the region. In
addition, the low will be beginning the occlusion process late
Thursday night with the cold front forward motion slowing. In this
more weakly forced environment, widespread heavy convection appears
less likely. The GFS has been consistent with showing convection to
our south limiting convection further north across our area, and
this scenario is definitely possible. Regardless, there will be
enough moisture in the atmosphere for some heavier downpours and at
least localized flooding with thunderstorms. Furthermore, with the
surface low and best dynamics north of the area, the overall severe
threat appears marginal.
Post by: Curt on May 06, 2019, 09:24:56 AM
Post by: JayCee on May 06, 2019, 09:57:56 AM
(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1557154852)
The wetness in the Plains will keep any death ridge from developing there any time soon.
Post by: MSR041933 on May 06, 2019, 11:25:49 AM
Bad timing for the dying leftovers Wednesday night here, then the dynamics stink on Thursday for frontal passage. No doubt there will be thunderstorms- but as of now the severe threat for anything major just isn’t there. What is there is heavy rain al day Saturday in the “cool air”. Temps look well below normal after this weekend for quite some time. We might make it to June with no 90 degree temps.Not complaining any about lack of 90 degree weather...and SPC trimmed their day 4 back to the west a good bit
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 06, 2019, 04:05:23 PM
Post by: gcbama on May 06, 2019, 04:40:24 PM
Maybe the fall season will bring some sort of interesting weather as far as severe events go
Post by: JayCee on May 06, 2019, 05:41:00 PM
Our dry time won't last long, as active weather starts to creep back in by Wednesday. After that, there isn't a day free from rain chances into early next week.
Post by: gcbama on May 06, 2019, 06:37:55 PM
Post by: StormNine on May 06, 2019, 09:12:59 PM
For that area that will cause some flooding concerns, but for us, that could effectively block the rich moisture return needed for severe storms (at least on a widespread level) across our area.
Post by: JayCee on May 07, 2019, 06:56:55 AM
Speaking of El Nino, I stumbled across this news article this morning. Pretty interesting.
http://theconversation.com/el-nino-has-rapidly-become-stronger-and-stranger-according-to-coral-records-115560 (http://theconversation.com/el-nino-has-rapidly-become-stronger-and-stranger-according-to-coral-records-115560)
Post by: StormNine on May 07, 2019, 08:24:27 AM
Now it looks like the biggest threat with this system across the US after today will be across South-Central TX to Arklamiss and will probably have a bigger flooding threat than a severe weather threat.
Post by: BRUCE on May 07, 2019, 02:58:22 PM
Post by: mamMATTus on May 07, 2019, 05:10:39 PM
Today’s weather been absolutely perfect...upper 80s with little good ole humidity ... so ready for the 90s... hopefully end May we can getting the heat humidity going
Are you insane? Heat, humidity and perfect don't belong in the same sentence.
Post by: StormNine on May 07, 2019, 06:05:04 PM
Post by: Matthew on May 07, 2019, 10:57:05 PM
Post by: mamMATTus on May 08, 2019, 03:55:53 AM
https://theconversation.com/el-nino-has-rapidly-become-stronger-and-stranger-according-to-coral-records-115560
JayCee literally just posted this.
Post by: JayCee on May 08, 2019, 07:47:29 AM
Are you insane?
(https://www.bing.com/th?id=OGC.3a9f3dfd70cc19d974e1a928a85898d5&pid=1.7&rurl=https%3a%2f%2fmedia.giphy.com%2fmedia%2fi7RGfLvttaxTa%2fgiphy.gif&ehk=Y%2fRsL12%2b0v%2b5sc2ExrIsYg)
Post by: cgauxknox on May 08, 2019, 01:09:02 PM
My only thought as to why it is getting very little media attention is that it's a slow-moving disaster. Something more suddenly destructive, or involving terribly compromising information about some politician or party, would probably get wall to wall coverage on our 24 hour news cycle. When there is eventually a major, newsworthy flood from this event most people are going to think there was no warning and it hadn't been building for weeks or months with high levels up and down the Mississippi.
Post by: StormNine on May 08, 2019, 04:22:01 PM
While we're fortunately able to complain about the lack of exciting weather here, and get to enjoy the first real spring in many years, we need to remember that big parts of the country are suffering from serious flooding issues. A video from TWC (https://weather.com/news/weather/video/watch-frightening-moment-levee-fails-in-davenport-iowa) shows a temporary levee failing in Davenport, IA. The fact they're hiding behind temporary levees indicates a pretty bad situation already, but with enough water to breach them (or maybe it was a badly built levee, I don't know) and flood waters from such breaches remaining for multiple days I'm afraid the midwest is facing a slow-moving disaster through late spring and early summer.
My only thought as to why it is getting very little media attention is that it's a slow-moving disaster. Something more suddenly destructive, or involving terribly compromising information about some politician or party, would probably get wall to wall coverage on our 24 hour news cycle. When there is eventually a major, newsworthy flood from this event most people are going to think there was no warning and it hadn't been building for weeks or months with high levels up and down the Mississippi.
Flood events typically do not get the coverage they deserve. The May 2010 floods hardly registered on the national scale. One thing is that floods are not as seen as sexy/appealing as other disasters that do a lot of damage in the short term (e.g. earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes). The negative of that lack of coverage is it sends a message to Joe and Joellen Public that floods are really not that big of a deal which has occasionally lead to deadly results.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 08, 2019, 05:38:12 PM
Post by: StormNine on May 08, 2019, 07:28:46 PM
The bowing segment of storms that has moved through Texas and now Louisiana has been a mean one. It has had countless tornado warnings.
It is moving at 50-70MPH as well. It may try to make a run at derecho status if it can maintain itself across Mississippi.
Post by: gcbama on May 09, 2019, 09:01:43 AM
It is moving at 50-70MPH as well. It may try to make a run at derecho status if it can maintain itself across Mississippi.
A Summer derecho is always fascinating to watch....all of that heat and humidity just fueling a derecho around the ring of fire high pressure is something to behold
Post by: BRUCE on May 09, 2019, 09:11:41 AM
Post by: gcbama on May 09, 2019, 09:27:09 AM
By the spc has taken midsouth out the slight risk zone today.. pushed it south.. we can’t even get a decent squall line anymore these days.... go figure ...
Bruce I tried to tell ya last week not to bite on this one lol....this has got to be the most boring season of all time don't ya think
Post by: MSR041933 on May 09, 2019, 09:54:00 AM
Bruce I tried to tell ya last week not to bite on this one lol....this has got to be the most boring season of all time don't ya thinkNah
Post by: StormNine on May 09, 2019, 09:59:49 AM
It should be noted that 2005 gave us November 5-6th and 15th and 2015 gave us the December 23rd event.
Post by: gcbama on May 09, 2019, 10:16:03 AM
Nah
[/quoI
IDK lol....we haven't even had a threat since we had that moderate risk bust day 6 weeks or so ago, sure has ben sleepy lol
Post by: cgauxknox on May 09, 2019, 12:52:09 PM
Post by: mamMATTus on May 09, 2019, 01:12:48 PM
Post Merge: May 09, 2019, 01:52:16 PM
My dad is currently in Fort Payne, AL taking shelter at the Tractor Supply. A bit nervous right now.
Post by: cgauxknox on May 09, 2019, 01:56:29 PM
My dad is currently in Fort Payne, AL taking shelter at the Tractor Supply. A bit nervous right now.Best wishes to your Dad! It reminds me of the tortuously long time it took me to get through to my parents when the Good Friday tornado went straight through their neighborhood in Murfreesboro. Fortunately they were both fine and so was the house, but it was tough not knowing.
Post by: mamMATTus on May 09, 2019, 02:44:46 PM
Best wishes to your Dad! It reminds me of the tortuously long time it took me to get through to my parents when the Good Friday tornado went straight through their neighborhood in Murfreesboro. Fortunately they were both fine and so was the house, but it was tough not knowing.
All good! No tornado that I know of but definitely sounding like there was some straight-line wind damage.
Post by: JayCee on May 09, 2019, 04:23:16 PM
Quote
Monday
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 70.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 72.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Wednesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77.
You can't beat upper 40's in mid May; not to mention my utility bill is hitting record low territory with this weather, so keep it comin'.
Post by: StormNine on May 09, 2019, 05:21:52 PM
Post by: JayCee on May 10, 2019, 07:54:25 AM
(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif?1557492462703)
But a decent break in the wet times may arrive after this latest soaking.
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
Also, early next week continues to trend cooler with highs Monday and Tuesday only in the upper 60's for some of us. Considering the strong May Sun angle, that's a pretty cool air mass coming in.
Post by: Beth on May 10, 2019, 08:06:36 AM
Post by: BRUCE on May 10, 2019, 08:17:26 AM
We usually see a cool snap around Mother’s Day. I think the coming cool snap is blackberry winter as the blackberry bushes are in full bloom. 8)that is correct... after that ... we know what’s ahead then...
Post by: MSR041933 on May 10, 2019, 09:35:55 AM
South middle and east TN about to get another super soaker.Looks like heaven to me for may..keep it coming cause we all knows what’s in store in August (humid heat)
(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif?1557492462703)
But a decent break in the wet times may arrive after this latest soaking.
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
Also, early next week continues to trend cooler with highs Monday and Tuesday only in the upper 60's for some of us. Considering the strong May Sun angle, that's a pretty cool air mass coming in.
Post by: NashRugger on May 10, 2019, 04:36:21 PM
Post by: Beth on May 10, 2019, 06:23:05 PM
Post by: StormNine on May 12, 2019, 12:05:01 PM
Post by: JayCee on May 12, 2019, 04:58:03 PM
Oh, and happy Mother's Day to any mothers here!
Post by: cgauxknox on May 13, 2019, 06:49:00 AM
Post by: JayCee on May 13, 2019, 07:55:50 AM
As long as we remain in a wet pattern, we may have humidity, but extreme heat will have a hard time gaining a foothold with saturated soils going into late spring. The Sun will be too busy trying to dry the ground and evaporating all the excess moisture from lush vegetation to add much heat to the atmosphere. And we aren't the only area that's wet. The southern & central Plains are also running well above normal in rainfall this spring with much of the area currently experiencing flooding. That's normally where summer heat waves begin, as a huge ridge develops there and expands eastward over us. That's not going to happen anytime soon with saturated soils sapping all the solar radiation.
Post by: NashRugger on May 13, 2019, 08:35:13 AM
The overall synoptic pattern looks HIGHLY favorable for some extremely active weather for the Plains and into the Midwest. Even though it's 5-7 days out, I'd almost lock this in, at least in the modeled synoptic pattern. As we all know, smaller mesoscale features will make or break.
Post by: gcbama on May 13, 2019, 09:16:46 AM
Post by: mamMATTus on May 13, 2019, 09:25:09 AM
Post Merge: May 13, 2019, 09:36:43 AM
Several forecasters in various capacities (NOAA, academia, and private companies) are starting to really latch onto roughly May 19-25 period.
The overall synoptic pattern looks HIGHLY favorable for some extremely active weather for the Plains and into the Midwest. Even though it's 5-7 days out, I'd almost lock this in, at least in the modeled synoptic pattern. As we all know, smaller mesoscale features will make or break.
That’s well over a week away. That’s some extremely high confidence this far in advance. If it comes to fruition I wonder if maybe we get impacted possibly toward the end of the month.
Post by: BRUCE on May 13, 2019, 09:59:32 AM
Well looks like we escape yet another severe weather spring season without a major event and for once enjoying some actual spring temps :)and now we return you to your regular schedule boring weather pattern as it’s in progress....
Post by: NashRugger on May 13, 2019, 11:12:30 AM
Raleigh is getting rocked right now!I personally have some pretty decent confidence this far out given model agreement and consistent overall upper level pattern. As I said, I'm confident in that but the devil lies in the details with the finer parts that could make or break a day.
Post Merge: May 13, 2019, 09:36:43 AM
That’s well over a week away. That’s some extremely high confidence this far in advance. If it comes to fruition I wonder if maybe we get impacted possibly toward the end of the month.
Post by: Crockett on May 13, 2019, 11:20:20 AM
It certainly felt like fall this past weekend. There was a definite chill in the air up in KY.
As long as we remain in a wet pattern, we may have humidity, but extreme heat will have a hard time gaining a foothold with saturated soils going into late spring. The Sun will be too busy trying to dry the ground and evaporating all the excess moisture from lush vegetation to add much heat to the atmosphere. And we aren't the only area that's wet. The southern & central Plains are also running well above normal in rainfall this spring with much of the area currently experiencing flooding. That's normally where summer heat waves begin, as a huge ridge develops there and expands eastward over us. That's not going to happen anytime soon with saturated soils sapping all the solar radiation.
As much as I have enjoyed a "true" spring without jumping straight from winter to summer, low 60s in mid May is a little weird. Not too weird if it only lasts a day or 2; we can call that blackberry winter. But when I look at the cool and damp pattern that seems to be stretching on without an end in sight, I begin to suspect that I'll be griping right alongside Bruce here shortly. ;D The GFS had been hinting at the first widespread 90s by Memorial Day weekend. Now it's showing wet and cool for that weekend. Bleh.
Post by: JayCee on May 13, 2019, 02:32:15 PM
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif)
Post by: wfrogge on May 13, 2019, 02:55:28 PM
Well looks like we escape yet another severe weather spring season without a major event and for once enjoying some actual spring temps :)
Chickens...... hatch..... don’t count
Post by: gcbama on May 13, 2019, 03:41:54 PM
when I see a significant threat for our area 48 hours in advance with consistent agreement, then I will bite. Long range didn't pan out in winter over our area and so far hasn't panned out as far as severe weather in our region more than 3 days out either.....
Bruce what is going on with all this snooze-fest weather lol
Post by: Thundersnow on May 13, 2019, 04:29:27 PM
you KNOW it has been a BORING year when everybody is salivating at a potential severe threat over the plains 6 days out lol....
when I see a significant threat for our area 48 hours in advance with consistent agreement, then I will bite. Long range didn't pan out in winter over our area and so far hasn't panned out as far as severe weather in our region more than 3 days out either.....
Bruce what is going on with all this snooze-fest weather lol
Do we need to rant/gripe/whine thread about this? ;)
Post by: StormNine on May 14, 2019, 04:21:10 AM
Every outlook from Day 4 to 8 is highlighted. Severe/Tornado Outbreak Sequence is of concern especially points north and west of our region but D6 may push it into our region and we may have activity further on down the line.
Remember we have had some outbreaks in our history at the end of May. 5/27/1917, the late May 2000 sequence, and 5/30/2004 come to mind. Even for us severe weather season is not over.
Post by: BRUCE on May 14, 2019, 05:31:45 AM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/and what you know... spc has western areas mid south in risk already day 6... including parts west Tennessee... going be honest... haven’t looked at a model in two weeks... so I guess I keep one eye open... but sure the same ole same ole start pop up .. another ark la Tex deal...
Every outlook from Day 4 to 8 is highlighted. Severe/Tornado Outbreak Sequence is of concern especially points north and west of our region but D6 may push it into our region and we may have activity further on down the line.
Remember we have had some outbreaks in our history at the end of May. 5/27/1917, the late May 2000 sequence, and 5/30/2004 come to mind. Even for us severe weather season is not over.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 14, 2019, 07:04:35 AM
Post by: JayCee on May 14, 2019, 07:21:56 AM
Post by: BRUCE on May 14, 2019, 07:39:15 AM
Last year, we skipped the great season of spring. April was setting record lows with a cold rain falling most of the month. It was about this time that we flipped the switch from early March to July, skipping April and May altogether. It's been awesome to actually have a real spring this year.agree... now if we can only cash in on a true spring severe event... would cap off a perfect spring ....
Post by: JayCee on May 14, 2019, 08:12:36 AM
Post by: gcbama on May 14, 2019, 08:35:54 AM
Do we need to rant/gripe/whine thread about this? ;)
HAHA...I guess it is never right to complain about a lack of severe weather since it can damage....just wanting something to track in our area for once....It's been quite a long time since we had a true supercell threat in our area....I do think this year we may see a true derecho or two though during summer
Post by: StormNine on May 14, 2019, 12:46:37 PM
1 foot+ snow expected over the Sierra Nevada Mountain range. Hopefully, California can harness all of this water for future droughts.
While the Plains, Upper Midwest, and perhaps parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Upper South get impacted by severe weather the Wasatch Mountains will get to experience accumulating snow for nearly every time it happens.
Post by: NashRugger on May 14, 2019, 08:24:30 PM
Post by: BRUCE on May 15, 2019, 07:52:49 AM
Post by: Flash on May 15, 2019, 10:09:01 AM
Spc still has parts mid south in risk for Sunday... slightly ever so went further east with threat... haven’t dug into models much... sure it will be mainly a damaging wind threat for us as the main energy rapidly moves in the Great Lakes ....
I'll take ANY threat right now 'enhanced' or higher regardless of its specialty.
Post by: gcbama on May 15, 2019, 10:44:20 AM
but a derecho around the ring of fire may be in our future come summertime, and the fall tornado season oct/nov is only 5 months away. Time to enjoy pool weather and backyard bbq's in the coming weeks
Post by: StormNine on May 15, 2019, 06:07:41 PM
https://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/03/30/how-to-forecast-tornadoes-looking-for-what-could-go-wrong/
For more info on Veer-Back-Veer check the link above.
Post by: Curt on May 15, 2019, 07:03:41 PM
Post by: BRUCE on May 16, 2019, 06:54:59 AM
Post by: JayCee on May 16, 2019, 07:04:23 AM
Post by: Curt on May 16, 2019, 07:28:07 AM
Post by: BRUCE on May 16, 2019, 07:44:04 AM
Good news for us “cool” summer people. JJA period on ensembles still shows below normal averages with above normal precip. Most likely the wet spring set the stage for more of the same. I think we see an early start to hurricane season too.doubt it very seriously we see much of a hurricane season ... with the El Niño taking hold plus slightly increasing as we march along the year... and Jma accuracy hasn’t been up to snuff to be honest with you... would nt put much stock into that long range one way or the other ...
Post by: dwagner88 on May 16, 2019, 08:24:23 AM
Good news for us “cool” summer people. JJA period on ensembles still shows below normal averages with above normal precip. Most likely the wet spring set the stage for more of the same. I think we see an early start to hurricane season too.Glad to see some good news on this front. The long range GFS has been very hot post day 7 for a few runs in a row now.
Post by: Crockett on May 16, 2019, 09:25:24 AM
Post by: BRUCE on May 16, 2019, 09:38:46 AM
I will never understand you people who like to sit in the house all summer and watch it rain. >:Dyeah... really... done enough that this past winter.... blah... lol
Post by: JayCee on May 16, 2019, 10:08:16 AM
I will never understand you people who like to sit in the house all summer and watch it rain. >:D
More like weekends on the deck enjoying sunshine and low 80’s while slow cooking some BBQ—your fav! ::flag::
Post by: Thundersnow on May 16, 2019, 10:19:17 AM
I will never understand you people who like to sit in the house all summer and watch it rain. >:D
Ha- really. Not enough rain is not good either though. I like a summer with normal temperatures. Upper 80s to around 90 is just fine. I like enough 90 degree days that the pool water feels good. But, a good thunderstorm with a half inch of rain one or two days a week is good with me (not an all day rain, but I'll happily give up an hour or two in an afternoon for a nice watering of the lawns and gardens).
Post by: Curt on May 16, 2019, 10:20:47 AM
doubt it very seriously we see much of a hurricane season ... with the El Niño taking hold plus slightly increasing as we march along the year... and Jma accuracy hasn’t been up to snuff to be honest with you... would nt put much stock into that long range one way or the other ...
An early start doesn’t mean I think the season will go gangbusters. Those are 2 entirely different comparisons.
Post by: Curt on May 16, 2019, 10:22:14 AM
I will never understand you people who like to sit in the house all summer and watch it rain. >:D
Hang on. I enjoy lots of sunshine in the summer and pool time. I just don’t like extended periods of drought and heat. The good news is regardless, Fall is never that far away.
Post by: Crockett on May 16, 2019, 10:56:30 AM
Hang on. I enjoy lots of sunshine in the summer and pool time. I just don’t like extended periods of drought and heat. The good news is regardless, Fall is never that far away.
Regarding hurricane season, as long as there are no cyclones in the gulf during the last week of June, we good. If I sat through all this wet weather in Tennessee last fall/winter/spring only to go on vacation and get rained on, I'm quitting weather.
Post by: BRUCE on May 16, 2019, 11:45:30 AM
Post by: JayCee on May 16, 2019, 12:35:39 PM
So, all day rain under cloudy skies? Heck no, but the weather freak in me wouldn't mind an intense 30 minute storm at least every other day. It brings back some of my best summer memories growing up.
Post by: gcbama on May 16, 2019, 03:31:48 PM
Going go out on a limb bit here... think Tuesday has and will be the better chance for a decent severe event for the mid south ... gfs is showing fairly high instability and decent shear ... as for now timing is a lot better also coming in late afternoon early evening Tuesday ... to early to dig In on the main impacts just yet
Bruce don't do it ...... don't torture yourself LOL....:). I am waiting for fall severe season
Post by: cgauxknox on May 17, 2019, 05:30:55 AM
Post by: Eric on May 17, 2019, 08:20:03 AM
I'd stay away from starting any threads, my dude.
Post by: snowdog on May 17, 2019, 09:34:45 AM
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1129394347869388801 (https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1129394347869388801)
Post by: BRUCE on May 17, 2019, 10:20:56 AM
Bruce is striking out more than Bryce Harper.lol. Just wish I was getting paid like Bryce. Trust me i will but chance still see some Tuesday
I'd stay away from starting any threads, my dude.
Post by: StormNine on May 17, 2019, 04:23:06 PM
Backed winds, a nasty shear/CAPE combo, and weak to non-existant cap.
Our threat on Tuesday (for West TN, West KY, NW MS peeps) is one we will probably not know till Monday Night/Early Tuesday because the overnight activity will determine our Tuesday threat level or lack of. We could have a mean MCS moving our way, a decent to even significant severe weather event, or what we have been having so far this year which is pretty much nothing. It all depends on Monday/Early Tuesday's activity.
Post by: BRUCE on May 17, 2019, 04:50:12 PM
Monday in the plains looks to either feature a widespread tornado outbreak or feature the MCS/potential Derecho of the year.well agree... Tuesday has a chance...
Backed winds, a nasty shear/CAPE combo, and weak to non-existant cap.
Our threat on Tuesday (for West TN, West KY, NW MS peeps) is one we will probably not know till Monday Night/Early Tuesday because the overnight activity will determine our Tuesday threat level or lack of. We could have a mean MCS moving our way, a decent to even significant severe weather event, or what we have been having so far this year which is pretty much nothing. It all depends on Monday/Early Tuesday's activity.
Post by: dwagner88 on May 17, 2019, 05:24:46 PM
Post by: JayCee on May 17, 2019, 08:31:11 PM
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
Post by: NashRugger on May 17, 2019, 09:55:03 PM
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Post by: Flash on May 18, 2019, 07:07:35 AM
First true "death ridge" of the summer. It's death to any precipitation or cooling thunderstorm that would attempt to develop.
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
As much as I despise death ridges, if there’s any consolation, it’s the fact rarely is our state smack dab in the middle of them. The way this year has started should somewhat put any summer 2007/2012 repeat talks to rest.
Post by: BRUCE on May 18, 2019, 08:46:41 AM
Post by: StormNine on May 18, 2019, 09:31:44 AM
Monday looks fierce for strong to violent tornadoes (if the storm mode is able to stay discrete-semi-discrete) or if it stays a MCS then widespread 70-100MPH+ will likely occur instead.
Tuesday will depend on Monday. West KY/TN might get involved but they will likely require a boundary or something to break the cap.
Our first widespread 90s should follow.
Post by: JayCee on May 18, 2019, 09:43:21 AM
As we boil under the ridge, the west sees well below normal temps under the trough. The Plains are in for some very stormy times being caught in the middle.
Post Merge: May 18, 2019, 09:49:56 AM
As much as I despise death ridges, if there’s any consolation, it’s the fact rarely is our state smack dab in the middle of them. The way this year has started should somewhat put any summer 2007/2012 repeat talks to rest.
Thankfully, we've had an abundance of rain this winter/spring, unlike 2007. We started that summer with drought conditions already well underway, so there was little hope to avoid record heat that year. That was the worst summer in the last two decades for the entire southeast U.S., leaving Georgia trying to re-draw the border with Tennessee just to gain access to our river.
That court dispute was just recently struck down:
https://newschannel9.com/news/local/tennessee-border-dispute-dead-after-georgia-governor-vetoes-bill-seeking-land-water-05-14-2019 (https://newschannel9.com/news/local/tennessee-border-dispute-dead-after-georgia-governor-vetoes-bill-seeking-land-water-05-14-2019)
Post by: Thundersnow on May 18, 2019, 10:24:43 AM
Post by: bugalou on May 18, 2019, 11:03:16 AM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 18, 2019, 02:34:05 PM
Post by: BRUCE on May 18, 2019, 02:50:33 PM
After being juicy here the last couple of days with DP around 70 the strong south wind must be pulling dry air. DP has fell all day. Down to 60 at the moment.doubt that. They just mixed out for now ...
Post by: Thundersnow on May 18, 2019, 04:08:37 PM
Post by: JayCee on May 18, 2019, 04:46:11 PM
And just noticed a severe t-storm warning has been issued for neighboring Blount County for one of these mountain induced thunderstorms.
Post by: cgauxknox on May 18, 2019, 05:28:37 PM
Post by: Mister2011 on May 18, 2019, 05:29:13 PM
Most hail I've seen in a while, looked like a dusting of snow ::snowman::
61 MPH gust at TYS ::wow::
Post by: cgauxknox on May 18, 2019, 05:43:24 PM
Post by: bugalou on May 18, 2019, 05:43:30 PM
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Post by: JayCee on May 18, 2019, 06:07:33 PM
We're getting wind and thunder in west Knoxville now from the warned storms coming north out of Blount County. I do like a good thunderstorm at the end of a hot summer day.
Been a good ending to a hot day. After pushing 90, I'm ending the day at 68 with a good breeze from the outflow coming from the storms heading to my west out of Blount Co. Not too shabby.
Post by: BRUCE on May 18, 2019, 06:18:21 PM
There are some discrete cells firing up in MEGs CWA and are worth some vigilance. We are just barely on the edge of the enhanced threat line, but all it takes is one storm to do damage.good call bugalou... storm just ne of pine bluff is tornado warned ....
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Post Merge: May 18, 2019, 06:34:20 PM
Monday looking down right gruesome for southern plains that afternoon ... classic dry line setup with perfect vertical shear for rotation cells...could be our first high risk setup of year ... parameters could also support our first ef5 tornado 🌪 this year ....
Post by: bugalou on May 18, 2019, 06:44:13 PM
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Post by: Charles L. on May 18, 2019, 06:48:38 PM
Post by: JayCee on May 18, 2019, 07:06:18 PM
Post by: memphishogfan on May 18, 2019, 07:40:51 PM
Post by: Thundersnow on May 19, 2019, 08:15:14 AM
...for those who need a storm chasing fix.
Post by: Charles L. on May 19, 2019, 01:20:26 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 19, 2019, 06:25:13 PM
Post by: bugalou on May 19, 2019, 06:28:30 PM
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Post by: StormNine on May 19, 2019, 07:10:09 PM
Post by: BRUCE on May 19, 2019, 07:20:48 PM
There will be a whole lot of chaser convergence pretty much anywhere from Lubbock/Amarillo over to West/Southwest Oklahoma. Hope everyone from chasers to the towns themselves is ready for it. This event has gotten the hype so everybody who has the means to chase whether they are experienced or whether they don't know what they are doing but they have a Snapchat and Instagram account will be out there.give anything to be right there with them .... jealous .
Post by: Curt on May 19, 2019, 07:27:21 PM
There will be a whole lot of chaser convergence pretty much anywhere from Lubbock/Amarillo over to West/Southwest Oklahoma. Hope everyone from chasers to the towns themselves is ready for it. This event has gotten the hype so everybody who has the means to chase whether they are experienced or whether they don't know what they are doing but they have a Snapchat and Instagram account will be out there.And the nice thing about that area is the population density is about as low as anywhere. You get the awe without the damage (hopefully- some people and cows do live there).
Post by: bugalou on May 19, 2019, 07:35:46 PM
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Post by: StormNine on May 19, 2019, 08:26:11 PM
For chasing probably the Lubbock to Childress, TX to Altus, OK corridor probably holds the most promise and is the best shot for truly discrete storms.
The weak cap holds the key between a severe slop fest and a true plains outbreak.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 19, 2019, 08:37:31 PM
Seriously, if anyone here wants to commit to a 2020 chase I will commit to taking 2 weeks off work as well as helping fund hotels, food, and gas. Id consider myself a journeyman at storm chaser meteorology and would like someone with more experience than me involved. Its really something I want to do once.I can’t commit at the moment but I am seriously interested.
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Post by: gcbama on May 19, 2019, 08:41:29 PM
Post by: StormNine on May 19, 2019, 09:11:50 PM
Post by: Drifter49 on May 19, 2019, 09:14:30 PM
I can’t commit at the moment but I am seriously interested.
Is Bruce gonna be driving the crazy train
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Post by: StormNine on May 19, 2019, 09:56:59 PM
The HRRR 0Z run presents:
Dance With the Supercells
Post by: BRUCE on May 19, 2019, 10:28:38 PM
Post Merge: May 19, 2019, 10:37:18 PM
If spc puts much stock In the latest hrrr... there will be a High risk put out by them in morning update ...
Post Merge: Yesterday at 01:56:59 AM
90 contour poping up south central Oklahoma ...bingo... high risk it is ....
Post Merge: May 19, 2019, 10:37:18 PM
If spc puts much stock In the latest hrrr... there will be a High risk put out by them in morning update ...
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 06:38:15 AM
Quote
RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon along the instability
corridor from Childress, Texas northeastward to Clinton, Oklahoma
show MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50
to 65 kt range. In addition, hodographs are large and looped with
0-1 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt range. This environment
should be very favorable for supercells and tornadoes. 0-3 km
storm-relative helicities are forecast to steadily increase from
about 300 m2/s2 in the late afternoon to about 450 m2/s2 by early
evening as an anomalously strong low-level jet becomes better
focused. This will be ideal for a tornado outbreak with strong
tornadoes upstream and to the west of the low-level jet.
Yikes!!!
Post by: BRUCE on May 20, 2019, 06:45:47 AM
Yikes!!!yeah this environment screams violent tornadoes 🌪 even ... good chance we will see First ef5 of this season ....
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 06:49:40 AM
This may be one we remember for years to come.
Post by: Thundersnow on May 20, 2019, 07:06:11 AM
Quote
...Tornado Outbreak Expected Across the Southern Plains Today Into
Tonight...
...Southern and Central Plains...
An impressive and potent upper-level trough will move quickly
eastward across the Desert Southwest today as a powerful 75 to 90
knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the trough. Ahead of the
system, a corridor of strong instability is forecast across the
Southern Plains from west Texas into the eastern Texas Panhandle and
eastward into western and central Oklahoma. This combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level shear will be very
favorable for severe storms. As the mid-level jet ejects
northeastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon and
evening, a tornado outbreak is likely across the southern Plains.
The tornado outbreak is expected to continue into the overnight
period. This event should result in a significant threat to life and
property.
Meanwhile, we're settling into a dry pattern for the next week. With highs in the 90s and little rainfall, I may have to water the fescue late week.
Post by: JayCee on May 20, 2019, 07:18:43 AM
It's a good time to remember the Twistex team that lost their lives during that El Reno tornado. I've watched about every YouTube video of that monster, and it never ceases to amaze me how massive that circulation was. It was something out of a movie like Twister. Here's hoping nothing similar happens this May.
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 08:02:11 AM
Post by: NashRugger on May 20, 2019, 08:07:55 AM
The High Risk just jumped east to include Oklahoma City and the surrounding metro area.Honestly couldn't be much worse of an actual date, save for May 3rd.
Nearly all OKC metro area schools are closed today because of the threat.
The true meat of the discussion for the new update.
Quote
A serious outbreak of destructive, tornadic supercells is likely
over parts of this region this afternoon into evening, especially in
the high- and moderate-risk areas. Given the expected fast storm
motions, especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the
best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their
already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustain
wide, long-track tornadoes.
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 08:29:47 AM
This sounding though...Midland, TX
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2ce0ne1.png)
(h/t @WxDeFlitch via andyhb)
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 08:40:56 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on May 20, 2019, 08:41:10 AM
I suspect we might see some shock and awe storm chase videos airing by tonight.
Hope/pray for the safety and good decisions of storm chasers... and that no one becomes a statistic.
Post by: Drifter49 on May 20, 2019, 08:42:06 AM
I am really feeling bad for the people in Moore today. Its the anniversary of their most recent F-5 and the fact that this major threat is happening today has GOT to have those poor people on edge.
I definitely don’t want to be there!
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Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 09:27:55 AM
Quote
“Given the expected fast storm motions, especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustain wide, long-track tornadoes.”
https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/1130463314180550656
Post by: MSR041933 on May 20, 2019, 10:38:44 AM
Tinker AFB is closing. Never heard of an armed forces installation closing for a weather threat. I'm sure it happens, but its a first for me.
This sounding though...Midland, TX
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2ce0ne1.png)
(h/t @WxDeFlitch via andyhb)
👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 11:20:29 AM
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 11:37:17 AM
Post by: BRUCE on May 20, 2019, 11:44:54 AM
Up to 45% hatched TOR zone now...yeah it includes all the Oklahoma city metro also... fairly highly populated area... ::wow::
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 11:58:57 AM
IIRC, convective rolls are indicative of a highly favorable environment for tornadic development. Or maybe that was gravity waves? Seems one of the two (or both) were noticed during the Super Outbreak of 74 and again in 2011.
OUN WCM said in chat that they'll be zipping out tornado warnings based on storm characteristics (supercellular) and not radar data due to atmospheric conditions.
Post by: NashRugger on May 20, 2019, 12:01:44 PM
Post by: mamMATTus on May 20, 2019, 12:02:00 PM
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 12:03:54 PM
The crest of the roll acts as a focusing mechanism for stronger upward vertical motion, thus higher chances of breaking a cap, if one exists, and in general allowing for thunderstorm development.
SPC disco mentioned a free warm sector so I'm not sure how much of a cap there is. If they're mentioning explosive development, its unlikely there's any inhibition.
Post by: memphishogfan on May 20, 2019, 12:22:42 PM
Definitely see the convective rolls on satellite
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 01:21:55 PM
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 01:23:40 PM
Our first storms are beginning to form. It won't be too much longer before we have a slew of severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings all over TX/OK.
Watching on GR3 now. It looks like junk convection ATM, but I bet it blooms to monsters here in the next 30 minutes.
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 01:30:23 PM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/mcd0702.gif)
Post Merge: Yesterday at 01:34:40 PM
PDS inbound for Norman/Ok City...
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/mcd0703.gif)
(http://i68.tinypic.com/314oz6h.png)
https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1130542973060562946
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 01:42:20 PM
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 01:42:58 PM
All probs are maxed out on the Oklahoma PDS watch. Only the 2nd time that has ever happened.
The only other time?
4/27/11
Post by: memphishogfan on May 20, 2019, 01:53:33 PM
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 01:57:16 PM
The only other time?
4/27/11
Correct. We have 3 storms in the Southern TX Panhandle that have a world of potential.
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 02:01:41 PM
PDS Watch already hoisted...18z balloon data already coming in. Let's just say things aren't looking good... :o ::wow:: ::wow::
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/mcd0702.gif)
Post Merge: Yesterday at 01:34:40 PM
PDS inbound for Norman/Ok City...
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/mcd0703.gif)
(http://i68.tinypic.com/314oz6h.png)
https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1130542973060562946
Jesus. People are going to die today. :(
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 02:06:04 PM
Jesus. People are going to die today. :(
Reallllly hope you're wrong, but admittedly know you're probably right.
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 02:17:20 PM
Jesus. People are going to die today. :(
The only saving grace is that there is still a lot of rural areas around if the storms can avoid going near I-40 or I-35 at peak intensity. It also will depend on making sure that safe chasing is conducted and the amateurs and lookie loo's are managed.
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 02:22:22 PM
Quote
469
WFUS54 KLUB 201921
TORLUB
TXC125-345-201945-
/O.NEW.KLUB.TO.W.0014.190520T1921Z-190520T1945Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
221 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019
The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Dickens County in northwestern Texas...
Southern Motley County in northwestern Texas...
* Until 245 PM CDT.
* At 221 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 4 miles northeast of Mcadoo, or 12 miles northwest of
Dickens, moving northeast at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* Locations impacted include...
Matador, Mcadoo and Roaring Springs.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
&&
LAT...LON 3368 10097 3372 10104 3387 10104 3412 10091
3394 10063
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 217DEG 43KT 3377 10096
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN
$$
26
Post Merge: Yesterday at 02:24:39 PM
Thus far storms are pretty close together. This maybe detrimental to Tornado formation. Way to early to say for sure though.
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 02:25:48 PM
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 02:26:24 PM
https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 02:30:23 PM
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 02:31:40 PM
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 02:38:08 PM
It does look like new cells are starting to pop in SW OK though that may be worth watching.
Post by: BRUCE on May 20, 2019, 02:45:09 PM
Really messy presentation thus far. Nothing is going to get going with storms so bunched up.thinking all along was the second batch of convection was going to be the main show... these are just laying down outflows .... latest hrrr has a lot more spacing between cells with the cells later... ::coffee::
It does look like new cells are starting to pop in SW OK though that may be worth watching.
Post by: NashRugger on May 20, 2019, 02:47:12 PM
Really messy presentation thus far. Nothing is going to get going with storms so bunched up.Yep, as expected so far though.
It does look like new cells are starting to pop in SW OK though that may be worth watching.
It's not even 1500 so the stronger cells will become more dominant and will rob and kill other less intense cells.
Post by: memphishogfan on May 20, 2019, 02:59:15 PM
Also, a forklift driver in El Reno has been rushed to the hospital after being struck by lightening per Twitter.
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 03:02:49 PM
Post by: NashRugger on May 20, 2019, 03:04:53 PM
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 03:07:14 PM
Really messy presentation thus far. Nothing is going to get going with storms so bunched up.
It does look like new cells are starting to pop in SW OK though that may be worth watching.
Ok so I wasn't alone thinking it was a bit messy/and clustery lol
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 03:11:05 PM
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 03:11:16 PM
As of right now, my $$$ is on the Paducah cell becoming the dominant as it is in front, larger over all, and also has complete unrestricted inflow from the south and east. The last note appears to hold true for at least the next 30-60 minutes.
Agree completely and wouldn't be surprised to see a couple new cells pop NE of this one.
Post Merge: Yesterday at 03:48:20 PM
Radar presentation has improved. Things look to be getting dangerous over the next couple hours. Several good looking cells already warned.
Post Merge: Yesterday at 03:51:09 PM
Cell near Kirkland/Childress is about to produce a tornado.
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 03:52:19 PM
Quote
Short-term model guidance has trended away from a possible scenario
of discrete storm development over south-central OK. The most
probable scenario involves several tornadic supercells likely moving
across southwest OK and approaching the I-40 corridor west of the
OKC metro.
Thank God.
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 03:54:35 PM
Post by: NashRugger on May 20, 2019, 03:56:48 PM
Cell north of OKC is about to or is current producing a tornado.It's been producing for nearly 20 minutes, with two separate tornadoes for a while.
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 03:58:27 PM
Post Merge: Yesterday at 04:05:04 PM
meh. Everything is going QLS
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 04:07:20 PM
It's been producing for nearly 20 minutes, with two separate tornadoes for a while.
Yep.
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2hwmgk5.png)
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 04:11:29 PM
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 04:14:58 PM
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 04:15:18 PM
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 04:16:15 PM
Unless things really start cranking in next hour....it is not going to be a discrete type of outbreak...still "very dangerous" but not as bad as it could have been imo
I think it is still too early to tell, even if within the next hour things still aren’t cranking.
Give it until ~7-8 pm
Also, Lubbock radar site just got hammered by winds of 70-80 mph from what it looks like.
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 04:17:46 PM
I think it is still too early to tell, even if within the next hour things still aren’t cranking.
Give it until ~7-8 pm
LLJ, FTW.
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 04:18:06 PM
I think it is still too early to tell, even if within the next hour things still aren’t cranking.
Give it until ~7-8 pm
Yeah those cells in Texas look to mean business if they can get into OK where the greater shear is present.
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 04:37:12 PM
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 04:44:32 PM
Post by: BRUCE on May 20, 2019, 04:47:25 PM
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 04:48:19 PM
The lead storm in TX (near Estelline) needs a Tornado Warning. If that far SW OK can bust through the CAP it has strong to violent tornado potential.
That's the cell to watch....it is quite bite itself....that one could be scary
Post by: schneitzeit on May 20, 2019, 05:05:11 PM
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 05:14:13 PM
Post by: memphishogfan on May 20, 2019, 05:17:29 PM
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 05:20:42 PM
The Magnum, OK storm has the best rotation and display I have seen all day.
First long tracker of the day it looks like
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 05:27:41 PM
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 05:42:23 PM
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 05:48:20 PM
Post Merge: Yesterday at 05:52:00 PM
There is a freaking Winter Weather Advisory in the Nebraska Panhandle in late May. I repeat a freaking Winter Weather Advisory in the Nebraska Panhandle in late May.
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 06:56:09 PM
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 07:08:27 PM
Post by: NashRugger on May 20, 2019, 07:12:58 PM
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 07:40:24 PM
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 08:05:59 PM
Quite honestly, it maybe time to reanalyze our models. There have been a rash of false positives of lately and I cannot explain. All data pointed towards a major event today but thus far it seems we have gotten a low end medium risk event.
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Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 08:52:28 PM
I feel bad for SPC and the NWS offices. They are going to get bombs tossed at them tommorow with such an under performing event. I'm not going to call it a bust as there have been tornados today, but its still going to be perceived this way.
Quite honestly, it maybe time to reanalyze our models. There have been a rash of false positives of lately and I cannot explain. All data pointed towards a major event today but thus far it seems we have gotten a low end medium risk event.
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Agreed.....I thought a high risk was warranted because it was a substantial threat....30% chances also means that there is a 70% chance it might not occur.
The problem is, at 3-4 pm I think we could ALL tell it was not gonna be as bad as predicted and spc/nws would not back down from the "multiple discrete cell" talk or back down from a high risk....should have backed it down to a MOD risk when it became evident.
Now in just speaking of weather comparisons, this one reminds me of our 2010 flood event....mod and high risk turned into our massive floods of training thunderstorms
Post by: memphishogfan on May 20, 2019, 08:55:39 PM
Instead we get a public in which most can’t even find themselves in a map all worked up with visions of F5 tornados and hundreds dead. People take that as gospel truth these days and can’t see that weather has a lot of variables that can prevent an event.
Common sense weather coverage went out the door with ratings wars and Mets making Facebook videos showing every computer run and what might be.
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 09:05:44 PM
We need to invest a ton into actual weather forecasting and shift funding away from the global warming division. Also maybe just stop referring to past events as a comparison of what MIGHT happen. Same goes for Mets as well. They deserve part of the heck they catch tomorrow. I saw so many references to 2011 today on social media. Can we not just say here is what might happen if the cards fall right so pay close attention to the weather today?
Instead we get a public in which most can’t even find themselves in a map all worked up with visions of F5 tornados and hundreds dead. People take that as gospel truth these days and can’t see that weather has a lot of variables that can prevent an event.
Common sense weather coverage went out the door with ratings wars and Mets making Facebook videos showing every computer run and what might be.
You said that better than I ever could have :) . 2011 was a once every 40 year type of an event. This system is a very bad severe weather event without a doubt.....but comparing events to past events before the current one even happens is a mistake that many mets/stations do and scares the general public. Bottom line is, there was a significant threat today and spc/nws did their best....
but again I think I posted around 3 or 4 pm today it was evident at that time the massive supercell outbreak was not going to materialize yet they kept using discrete supercell talk/high risk and pds watches....I think that is why people will complain about the good hard working people at spc
Post by: BRUCE on May 20, 2019, 09:11:28 PM
Post by: mamMATTus on May 20, 2019, 09:12:27 PM
We need to invest a ton into actual weather forecasting and shift funding away from the global warming division. Also maybe just stop referring to past events as a comparison of what MIGHT happen. Same goes for Mets as well. They deserve part of the heck they catch tomorrow. I saw so many references to 2011 today on social media. Can we not just say here is what might happen if the cards fall right so pay close attention to the weather today?
Instead we get a public in which most can’t even find themselves in a map all worked up with visions of F5 tornados and hundreds dead. People take that as gospel truth these days and can’t see that weather has a lot of variables that can prevent an event.
Common sense weather coverage went out the door with ratings wars and Mets making Facebook videos showing every computer run and what might be.
Those days are long gone my friend. Once the general public gained access to online weather models and forums, every idiot in the world is now an amateur forecaster and preaches each run as the gospel. I do believe that NOAA/NWS etc have a responsibility at this point in time to take this issue seriously and come up with a solution.
As far as putting more funding towards forecasting/models, Obama cut 36 million from NWS in 2012. Trump wants to cut 75 million from NWS in his new budget. Don't see that getting any better anytime soon unfortunately.
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 09:37:33 PM
With that being said I do think caution needs to be used when determining threats. We need to stay away from past comparisons and focus on the threats. We do need to focus our attention at making our models especially our short term models better (the HRRR struggles with capping and CIN and that kinda stuff).
In reality, we still have some work to do and sometimes events bust. We had this same conversation with 02/23/2019, 04/05/2017, 02/28/2011, 04/24/2009, 04/10/2008, and 04/11/2005. This isn't something that has recently happened we have struggled at times with false positives.
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 09:42:09 PM
As far as putting more funding towards forecasting/models, Obama cut 36 million from NWS in 2012. Trump wants to cut 75 million from NWS in his new budget. Don't see that getting any better anytime soon unfortunately.
Bingo. People don't care until it affects them but it affects them eventually because people don't care. I think its completely stupid to underfund an agency that helps predict phenomenon that can literally cost billions of dollars to states, yet the first busted forecast is used as fodder to cut budgets. In sciences that are not completely understood, politics provide zero value towards the goal of better understanding it, and can actively trigger negative feedback loops driven by non scientific people. These people feel like they are doing something but in the end they are just damaging all of us as the weather does not factor in politics or opinion. It will do what it does despite all the rhetoric.
We must do better as forces abiding by the laws of nature will continue on regardless of humans.
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Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 09:42:49 PM
I personally think a lot of prayers were answered this evening... plain and simple....
Bruce just laid one out for us. ::applause:: ::applause::
In all seriousness, the risk warranted the HIGH. Forecasters can't get washed up in what will happen. They must forecast what COULD happen. I'm sure this threat will be dissected again and again, and I'm far from a degreed scientist, but it seems to me that the warm front didn't progress as far north as had been forecast and the inhibition eroded much earlier than anticipated allowing junk convection with the odd supercell to become the primary storm mode. Just throwing ::poo:: and seeing what sticks.
Post by: mamMATTus on May 20, 2019, 10:03:09 PM
Post by: memphishogfan on May 20, 2019, 10:49:37 PM
I personally think a lot of prayers were answered this evening... plain and simple....
Very true
All in all it was just a weird day. The one cell that put down a decent tornado was done after 5 min. I watched on KOCO and it went from wedge to rope in the blink of the eye, when it normally would have become a long tracked nightmare.
Thankful either way. While I love watching everything unfold and the awesomeness of a tornado, I’ve been through my fair share and wouldn’t wish that on anybody.
Post by: JayCee on May 21, 2019, 06:53:06 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on May 21, 2019, 08:40:00 AM
Post by: Flash on May 21, 2019, 11:32:53 AM
We need to invest a ton into actual weather forecasting and shift funding away from the global warming division. Also maybe just stop referring to past events as a comparison of what MIGHT happen. Same goes for Mets as well. They deserve part of the heck they catch tomorrow. I saw so many references to 2011 today on social media. Can we not just say here is what might happen if the cards fall right so pay close attention to the weather today?
Instead we get a public in which most can’t even find themselves in a map all worked up with visions of F5 tornados and hundreds dead. People take that as gospel truth these days and can’t see that weather has a lot of variables that can prevent an event.
Common sense weather coverage went out the door with ratings wars and Mets making Facebook videos showing every computer run and what might be.
I think it's okay to mention past events in the frame of, 'This is the most comprehensive setup since'...but I agree that many in the weather community have become too analog-dependent (I learned this hard way when composing my winter weather forecast last year). While it doesn't hurt to use analogs for internal reference, external mention should be minimized in this social media age since audiences at large lack context. Each present set of values and indices will forever be unique to the second in time they occur in. That's part of the foundation of meteorology.
Post by: schneitzeit on May 21, 2019, 01:31:48 PM
We need to invest a ton into actual weather forecasting and shift funding away from the global warming division.
I disagree with this sentiment entirely.
Post by: gcbama on May 21, 2019, 01:56:05 PM
I think it's okay to mention past events in the frame of, 'This is the most comprehensive setup since'...but I agree that many in the weather community have been become too analog-dependent (I learned this hard way when composing my winter weather forecast last year). While it doesn't hurt to use analogs for internal reference, external mention should be minimized in this social media age since audiences at large lack context. Each present set of values and indices will forever be unique to the second in time they occur in. That's part of the foundation of meteorology.
I think part of the problem is I heard some mets the day of and before this outbreak say " we ARE going to have a major outbreak...we ARE going to have multiple long track violent tornadoes" . That is ALWAYS a mistake to do.
Nobody is better at it in my opinion than James Spann , and he will usually say something to the effect of just explaining the dynamics of the storm system and that things are possible but we will just have to watch radar trends as the event develops...and that is what should have been done yesterday.
Nothing wrong with having a high risk because it was warranted .... however once radar trends began to show that it was just NOT going to happen (by as early as 3pm everything was clustered and becoming congealed) threats should have been reduced.
There needs to be a way to reduce a PDS tornado watch during the event into a standard tornado watch also if things are not developing imo
Post by: Thundersnow on May 21, 2019, 04:42:51 PM
Post by: BRUCE on May 21, 2019, 05:31:49 PM
I will say- it's kind of amazing that there's been such a dynamic system out west and into the Plains, bringing snow, severe weather, and flooding... and, we get quite literally nothing from it. It appears to be getting gradually hotter and drier of the next few days. That ridge is stout.yeah. afraid our weather fixing to get into snooze fest mode big time now ... just the way we roll now these days ....
Post by: dwagner88 on May 21, 2019, 06:57:20 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 21, 2019, 07:32:25 PM
Post by: JayCee on May 21, 2019, 07:39:16 PM
Post by: NashRugger on May 21, 2019, 08:42:32 PM
Good times and all the sirens you could ever want to hear.
Post by: mamMATTus on May 21, 2019, 09:58:05 PM
https://www.newschannel5.com/news/billboards-to-display-active-tornado-warnings-in-nashville?fbclid=IwAR2p0i9G4-FT7NCxYFHn7v0zw06AEKalPPnYFlp3pTSRGYKl8yqLs_anhVY (https://www.newschannel5.com/news/billboards-to-display-active-tornado-warnings-in-nashville?fbclid=IwAR2p0i9G4-FT7NCxYFHn7v0zw06AEKalPPnYFlp3pTSRGYKl8yqLs_anhVY)
Quote
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) — New digital billboards in Nashville won't be advertising the next new product, but rather keeping you safe by alerting you to issued Tornado Warnings.
Wingate Media will be displaying Tornado Warnings on its digital billboards, when the alerts are issued by the National Weather Service. Wingate Media President Ike Wingate said the idea came from a local billboard company advertising in Arkansas.Storm 5 meteorologist Bree Smith understands the importance in alerting the public in the event of severe weather.
"Sirens and severe weather warnings are how you know you're in danger and you can't make the right decision to get to safety if you don't know you need to do that," said Smith/
From now and into the future the Wingate Media billboards will be displaying active NWS tornado warnings in Nashville.
"I think billboards are great; anyway that we can get the information out there is going to empower people to make the decision that they need to seek shelter," said Smith.
The National Weather Service will send out an alert for a tornado warning in the Nashville Davidson County areas; the same alerts people get on cellphone, TV and radio, and now those same tornado warnings will be displayed on thedigital billboards.
"In the event of severe weather obviously moments matter, seconds can save lives .When it comes to having something that can serve the community well if we can be a use in that, we want to do that," said Wingate.
Wingate says the digital billboards in Nashville will be at Murfreesboro Pike and Polk Avenue, and Lebanon Road and Fesslers Lane.
"We want to be there in that moment, so they see it and they take shelter because in that situation a few minutes can make all the difference," said Wingate.
The billboards will be electronically synced with alerts from the NWS, meaning they disappear when the warnings expire.
There are similar digital tornado billboards in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas.