Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Thundersnow on February 24, 2019, 02:51:13 PM

Title: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on February 24, 2019, 02:51:13 PM
Friday will be March 1st. Time to start the thread and own it.

Kinda hoping for a dry stretch at some point.

(No particular reason to put this in the Severe forum, other than thatís where we traditionally put the spring thread.)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Uncle Nasty on February 24, 2019, 03:38:46 PM
 (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190224/45a2c97063aae50278fc1a14190e79e8.jpg)

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Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: WXHD on February 24, 2019, 07:14:45 PM
Iím in. I am done with winter. Did my best to get sunburnt today.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on February 25, 2019, 02:40:16 PM
The first half of March appears cold, but from the building upper air heights afterwards, the cold doesn't seem to linger on forever like last spring.  Maybe after an abysmal winter we can at least have a decent transition season to summer with 60's and 70's.   I'm sure we'll still have cold shots here and there, but last year the cold moved in and stayed until May.   

One thing I highly recommend for the coming spring is mosquito repellent.  They'll be feasting on us this year. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on February 25, 2019, 02:56:41 PM
Looks like the CFS model. Mid to long range toolsniff patterns is firing severe wx second half
March into early April ... looks active stormy ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on February 25, 2019, 04:22:21 PM
Looks like the CFS model. Mid to long range toolsniff patterns is firing severe wx second half
March into early April ... looks active stormy ...

If there is a -PNA I might score a winter threat during the 5 or so days I am in Utah right at the end of March/beginning of April.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Beth on February 26, 2019, 02:30:49 PM
I am staying in this thread!  Staying away from the winter one!  I want this weather today till summer arrives.  Please, no more snow and no more rain!  😎😎😎😎😎
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on February 26, 2019, 02:36:59 PM
I am staying in this thread!  Staying away from the winter one!  I want this weather today till summer arrives.  Please, no more snow and no more rain!  😎😎😎😎😎

Probably the sanest choice.  The winter thread will make you go cray cray.     ::cliff::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on February 26, 2019, 06:44:30 PM
That post was made days ago... when gfs was showing a threat .... course it has changed big time since .... lol

Post Merge: February 26, 2019, 07:59:06 PM
Accuweather predicting 525 tornadoes 🌪 from first March to the end may this spring ...I know. Accuweather ... lol
Title: Re: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Crockett on February 26, 2019, 10:07:16 PM
That post was made days ago... when gfs was showing a threat .... course it has changed big time since .... lol

Post Merge: February 26, 2019, 07:59:06 PM
Accuweather predicting 525 tornadoes 🌪 from first March to the end may this spring ...I know. Accuweather ... lol

How in the name of fuh can Accuweather even make a prediction about the number of tornadoes with a straight face? Just another reason why friends don't let their weather un-savvy friends download the Accuweather app.
Title: Re: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on February 26, 2019, 10:12:19 PM
I'm an avid fan of Crackuweather's 90-day forecast.
Title: Re: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on February 27, 2019, 04:36:11 AM
525 tornadoes in the USA during that timeframe is actually pretty close to average.  It sounds like a lot but it is pretty much a more hyped way of saying an average spring severe weather season.   Our March-May average in the USA is 537.
https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-03-27-april-may-june-tornadoes-peak-months
Title: Re: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2019, 05:21:02 AM
525 tornadoes in the USA during that timeframe is actually pretty close to average.  It sounds like a lot but it is pretty much a more hyped way of saying an average spring severe weather season.   Our March-May average in the USA is 537.
https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-03-27-april-may-june-tornadoes-peak-months
guess. We have been way below average last 3 years or so ... overall thinking is uptick to more threats this spring ... Iím liking the mid to late March pattern coming ... looking out long range stuff... guess this should been put in spring thread ... my bad. Lol
Title: Re: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Charles L. on February 27, 2019, 05:52:23 AM
Great article about that AccuWeather nonsense.

https://t.co/NVhYvqXc7k
Title: Re: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2019, 06:32:53 AM
It may or may not snow in the next 5-7 days. But the Euro, CMC, and GFS all say next week is gonna be brutally cold for this time of year. Anywhere from 15-25 degrees below average. Lows on a couple models approach single digits next Wed/Thurs. Highs near freezing. Brrrrrr!!!!!


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yeah without doubt at all cold is coming ..and pretty impressive for this time year ... but theme this winter appears when cold here she dries up ... guess itís good thing since weíre dealing  with river flooding etc... be nice sneak a winter event in last second ....  though Iím ready for spring....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on February 27, 2019, 06:47:30 AM
Hopefully temps in the lower 20's next week will mean I'll have 10 less mosquitos to deal with.  They are already out and looking for blood. 

After a very mild winter with flooding rains, we're in for a bad biting bug summer.  We may need something like this just to survive it:

https://www.amazon.com/Mosquito-Repellant-Netting-Insects-Activities/dp/B07FNRBJRZ/ref=asc_df_B07FNRBJRZ/?tag=bingshoppinga-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid={creative}&hvpos={adposition}&hvnetw=o&hvrand={random}&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=e&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl={devicemodel}&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=&hvtargid=pla-4584482455164448&psc=1 (https://www.amazon.com/Mosquito-Repellant-Netting-Insects-Activities/dp/B07FNRBJRZ/ref=asc_df_B07FNRBJRZ/?tag=bingshoppinga-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid={creative}&hvpos={adposition}&hvnetw=o&hvrand={random}&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=e&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl={devicemodel}&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=&hvtargid=pla-4584482455164448&psc=1)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on February 27, 2019, 10:57:36 AM
61 and sunshine in Knoxville, yes please!
Title: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2019, 06:03:16 AM

FWIW, the SPC is highlighting an area of potential severe weather risk on Day 4 or Sunday... mainly south of TN.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day4prob_20190228_1200.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2019, 06:18:23 AM
FWIW, the SPC is highlighting an area of potential severe weather risk on Day 4 or Sunday... mainly south of TN.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day4prob_20190228_1200.gif)
this threat has kept creeping north each model run... potential dangerous day for centeral Alabama and Georgia and further south.. cape along that area 2000jewles ...another big system have eye on next weekend ...for severe wx and heavy rain...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2019, 08:13:34 AM
Euro definitely more aggressive in terms of instability.  So much so, I wonder if it's overdoing it.  The GFS has a fraction of the instability and its confined the southern end of Mississippi.  Euro also depicts a tremendously moist warm sector, that may be overdone.  We know how the dew point situation worked out with the past event.  GFS surface winds are also out of the west(?).  Not sure I've seen that with a SLP.  Whatever it is, all I see is a conditional threat along and south of the I-20/59 corridor.  If the higher SBCAPE values and Tds are realized, there may be something to it.  I'm skeptical.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Flash on February 28, 2019, 08:59:15 AM
Hate to say it, but the D4 system looks like the better severe weather parameters will be to our south and the better wintry weather parameters will be to our north. This is the time of year where we're caught in that awkward tween stage.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on February 28, 2019, 10:08:48 AM
After yesterday's beautiful weather, I'm not looking forward to the level of cold coming next week.  I could deal with it much better if snow accumulations were involved, but if it ain't gonna snow, it might as well be 65 and sunny.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 01, 2019, 06:40:44 AM
Iíve got 4x the rain that the GFS had modeled to this point on the 12z yesterday. It had around 0.25Ē. Iím very close to 1Ē and itís still raining. Crossed 20Ē for the year this morning.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2019, 08:18:32 AM
We are having downpours of heavy rain over here in the foothills.   Seems to be much heavier than what the models were showing. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2019, 08:21:53 AM
Sunday's risk has been suppressed further south, really central MS/AL to the coast.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 01, 2019, 08:22:30 AM
Sunday's risk has been suppressed further south, really central MS/AL to the coast.

Was just fixing to post this.   ::coffee:: ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on March 01, 2019, 08:30:51 AM
We are having downpours of heavy rain over here in the foothills.   Seems to be much heavier than what the models were showing.
Same for the valley this morning and we had more than they expected yesterday as well.  Things have mostly cleared from last weekend but I have to wonder how much it will really take on Sunday to re-flood some of the most vulnerable places.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2019, 05:19:06 PM
Ended up recording .75" of rain, with .70 being run-off. 


Edit: Actually, I forgot what I poured out this morning, so .93 was the total for the whole event.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: collinsk on March 01, 2019, 08:36:31 PM
I hope spring comes in earnest soon.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2019, 07:24:44 AM
After a very cold, January-like week, next weekend looks much more like March.  Mild and stormy. 

I have a feeling we're not done with the flooding yet.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2019, 01:13:20 PM
12z euro. Spells trouble brewing next weekend ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 02, 2019, 01:31:00 PM
Not to get Bruce too excited but if we can keep the -PNA then I think we will have an above average severe weather season both locally and nationally.  Remember we have an active subtropical jet and a warmer than average Gulf of Mexico/west Atlantic.  If the PNA shots up to the + side then our chances of an active severe weather season do take a hit. 
 
One negative will be we could see too many storm systems and not have enough time for sufficient moisture return between them, but as we go into Late April and May that could spell a sequence event.   

I do think we are not done with flooding yet either, unfortunately. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2019, 02:13:45 PM
Not to get Bruce too excited but if we can keep the -PNA then I think we will have an above average severe weather season both locally and nationally.  Remember we have an active subtropical jet and a warmer than average Gulf of Mexico/west Atlantic.  If the PNA shots up to the + side then our chances of an active severe weather season do take a hit. 
 
One negative will be we could see too many storm systems and not have enough time for sufficient moisture return between them, but as we go into Late April and May that could spell a sequence event.   

I do think we are not done with flooding yet either, unfortunately.
yeah like weíre we heading ... for both eyes on it
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 02, 2019, 04:02:20 PM
12z euro. Spells trouble brewing next weekend ...
agreed .....bruce you and i have both said for a few weeks that this will be a very active severe season....i still stand by it
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2019, 11:14:29 AM
I took a drive around parts of east Tennessee yesterday, and I was surprised to still see flooded areas.  Some fields were full of water, and there were a lot of ponds where ponds don't usually exist.  I assume the water is just taking time to drain considering the water table is probably near the surface.

We're having another day of moderate rain, and will probably see an inch or so here.  Another round of possible heavy rain will occur next weekend.  At this rate, flooding will last deep into spring.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 03, 2019, 01:26:19 PM
It just thrills me to report that the GFS is showing another long duration heavy rain event Fri-Sun. It also dramatically underestimated rainfall for todayís system.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: cliftown04 on March 03, 2019, 01:39:21 PM
Yes we only had a little over an inch here this morning and the amount of run off was amazing. Not to mention how long it is taking the Tennessee River to recede. The forecast of 3-4Ē+ Would be concerning.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2019, 01:45:03 PM
Both gfs and euro painting a wicked severe threat next weekend ... pretty remarkable how fast we recover from couple days of very cold temps ... gfs painting some 2000 cape over large portion midsouth ... something to watch closely as we draw near the next weekend
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: wfrogge on March 03, 2019, 03:00:19 PM
Both gfs and euro painting a wicked severe threat next weekend ... pretty remarkable how fast we recover from couple days of very cold temps ... gfs painting some 2000 cape over large portion midsouth ... something to watch closely as we draw near the next weekend

Good thing ill be in Orlando :(
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2019, 03:29:42 PM
It just thrills me to report that the GFS is showing another long duration heavy rain event Fri-Sun. It also dramatically underestimated rainfall for todayís system.

Approaching an inch and a half here, and it's still pouring. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: justinmundie on March 04, 2019, 06:20:43 AM
FV3 sim radar looks erm interesting next weekend over a large area
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 04, 2019, 08:32:05 AM
Fun fact: if it continues to rain at the same rate that it has year to date, KCHA will get 128.82" of rain this year.  ::drowning::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 08:48:53 AM
Fun fact: if it continues to rain at the same rate that it has year to date, KCHA will get 128.82" of rain this year.  ::drowning::

Yuck
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2019, 09:05:08 AM
After yesterday.  Severe wx can move on.  Very sad so many hurt or killed from the tornadoes.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2019, 09:23:32 AM
We've been extremely blessed to have had such a long stretch of time without major severe weather outbreaks.  But this year my be different.  Starting next weekend into next week, it looks pretty stormy.  I'm not looking forward to a violent spring, if it's coming. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 09:35:21 AM
After yesterday.  Severe wx can move on.  Very sad so many hurt or killed from the tornadoes.

Too many lives cut short yesterday.

Increase awareness, increase awareness, increase awareness.

A possible benefit of my generation's addiction to smartphones is warning systems are much more penetrable. Sadly, many older folks don't know these storms are coming unless they have the TV on or a family member or friend called.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 04, 2019, 10:40:19 AM
Since weíre in now met spring... I just put this here from now on... 12z gfs holds serve ... it really wanting to bomb out the slp over north central Missouri ... low level shear out the ying yang ... warm sector looks reach bout southern Illinois ...  gfs ejects the trough quicker than the euro... letís see how euro 12z comes in....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: NismoWx on March 04, 2019, 11:37:40 AM
Too many lives cut short yesterday.

Increase awareness, increase awareness, increase awareness.

A possible benefit of my generation's addiction to smartphones is warning systems are much more penetrable. Sadly, many older folks don't know these storms are coming unless they have the TV on or a family member or friend called.
The problem with that is that the general public has become immune to the warnings. They don't take them seriously because they are so used to forecasts busting. Then they want to claim that they had no warning, when the SPC has been highlighting that for at least 4 days prior.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 12:22:20 PM
Very true. A major issue is that many people assume the cell must be in a different part of the county if a warning is issued. For example: a storm going over Fairview tracking NW to Davidson County will sound off the sirens all over Williamson County, even though only a tiny sliver of Williamson is under a threat of a tornado. People hear the sirens so often they become immune to them, like you said. When you've heard the sirens go off 50 times during tornado outbreaks and not one tornado has ever hit you, you're apt to brush it off.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: NismoWx on March 04, 2019, 01:32:11 PM
Very true. A major issue is that many people assume the cell must be in a different part of the county if a warning is issued. For example: a storm going over Fairview tracking NW to Davidson County will sound off the sirens all over Williamson County, even though only a tiny sliver of Williamson is under a threat of a tornado. People hear the sirens so often they become immune to them, like you said. When you've heard the sirens go off 50 times during tornado outbreaks and not one tornado has ever hit you, you're apt to brush it off.
Part of the polygon problem is that nobody knows where they are anymore without a GPS, especially the generation we're rearing now. That's why James Spann is so effective in the Birmingham market... He knows where EVERYTHING is, and can relate that to the public. That's something the NWS will never be able to duplicate, so it's up to the broadcast Mets to do it. Nashville doesn't have anyone qualified to do that since Bill Hall (may he rest in peace!) and Lisa Patton retired.

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Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2019, 03:06:55 PM
Part of the polygon problem is that nobody knows where they are anymore without a GPS, especially the generation we're rearing now. That's why James Spann is so effective in the Birmingham market... He knows where EVERYTHING is, and can relate that to the public. That's something the NWS will never be able to duplicate, so it's up to the broadcast Mets to do it. Nashville doesn't have anyone qualified to do that since Bill Hall (may he rest in peace!) and Lisa Patton retired.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

That's why the Mets in Nashville need to get down to street-level with their coverage.  Some do, but don't do it often/well enough to be effective.  Our social media message has and always will be hyper-local weather info your area, but as social-mediasts, we can only do so much.  I think Bree Smith mentioned Nashville serving a 66-county area and I can guarantee they don't know all the hollows and bluffs across they area.  If the person receiving the info doesn't know where the area, then that's a them problem and not a "you" problem. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 04, 2019, 05:21:41 PM
I was sitting here trying to remember the last blue bird day like today. I honestly canít remember.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: NismoWx on March 04, 2019, 05:28:53 PM
That's why the Mets in Nashville need to get down to street-level with their coverage.  Some do, but don't do it often/well enough to be effective.  Our social media message has and always will be hyper-local weather info your area, but as social-mediasts, we can only do so much.  I think Bree Smith mentioned Nashville serving a 66-county area and I can guarantee they don't know all the hollows and bluffs across they area.  If the person receiving the info doesn't know where the area, then that's a them problem and not a "you" problem.
Absolutely. At some point, they have to learn personal responsibility and accountability. Part of me is like, okay Darwinism at its finest, but the part of me that spent 10yrs in Fire/EMS trying to SAVE lives has a bigger grasp of my heart. At least I can say I tried.

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Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 04, 2019, 07:06:37 PM
Not thrilled with Saturday's threat looking nocturnal.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Beth on March 04, 2019, 08:33:29 PM
The NWS did say that the tornado that hit Lee County was a F4. The hardest hit area with the most fatalities were mobile/modular homes.  Prayers for them! 🙏🏻
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2019, 10:47:16 PM
Not thrilled with Saturday's threat looking nocturnal.

I think itís just going to be a rain event.  Models backing off any severe.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 10:59:52 PM
I think itís just going to be a rain event.  Models backing off any severe.
We won't be getting any severe WX in Knoxville, but areas a few hundred miles south and west of us may. What models have you looked at that indicate they are backing off from the severe threat? I haven't seen any indication of this
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 05:35:45 AM
I think itís just going to be a rain event.  Models backing off any severe.
last nights 0z euro actually ramped up the threat for severe wx late Saturday ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2019, 05:49:54 AM
Wow- really big area the SPC is highlighting for Day 5 or Saturday:

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day5prob_20190305_1200.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2019, 08:14:55 AM
Severe threat, at least for TN, looks minimal.  There may be a strong storm or two, given the insane amount of wind shear the GFS is predicting (over 1200 m2s2 along the Tn River   :o :o :o ).  Can't rule out the possibility of a few QLCS spinups.  Greatest shot at anything severe may be along the same areas that got hit this past weekend.  SPC even alluded to it...

Quote
Greater severe risk may
   therefore remain farther south, from east Texas/Louisiana across the
   Lower Mississippi Valley region, and possibly into the central Gulf
   Coast states late.

Euro equally not impressive for TN, specifically.  But QLCS spinups always know how to ruin the party.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 02:52:54 PM
Severe threat, at least for TN, looks minimal.  There may be a strong storm or two, given the insane amount of wind shear the GFS is predicting (over 1200 m2s2 along the Tn River   :o :o :o ).  Can't rule out the possibility of a few QLCS spinups.  Greatest shot at anything severe may be along the same areas that got hit this past weekend.  SPC even alluded to it...

Euro equally not impressive for TN, specifically.  But QLCS spinups always know how to ruin the party.
12z euro says. If this system fail for severe weather here... we got another chance after this system ... looks ha e much much better warm sector ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 05, 2019, 02:59:54 PM
Bruce, you are always saying there is a severe threat whenever any weekend is coming up  ;D
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 03:04:19 PM
No offense, Bruce, but you are always saying there is a severe threat whenever any weekend is coming up.
going by models dude... seriously ...Iím not making this up....lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2019, 03:29:35 PM
going by models dude... seriously ...Iím not making this up....lol

What day you looking at?  12z Euro goes out to next Friday and I'm having a hard time picking up on anything worth noting outside the TN Valley.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 03:34:33 PM
What day you looking at?  12z Euro goes out to next Friday and I'm having a hard time picking up on anything worth noting outside the TN Valley.
192 hr moving from west ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2019, 03:40:23 PM
Ahh yes, the ole QLCS conundrum.  Meh.  It's still 200+ hours out.  The parent SLP may be in Alberta by then.   ::shrug::

12z GFS ain't having any of it, by the way. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 05, 2019, 04:16:30 PM
Back to this weekend's threat:

The GFS lights up the East TN Valley pretty well, which is kind of rare this early in the season. Temperatures will be on the lower side (high 50s-low 60s) but I wouldn't rule out the chance of strong thunderstorms. I expect intense rainfall and high winds in Knoxville when this reaches us.

What is the look for the rest of the South?

Post Merge: March 05, 2019, 04:18:56 PM
Any input from our Memphis posters on this weekend's possible severe outbreak would be appreciated. I have friends there who always ask me about severe weather threats, but I've been busy this week and haven't been watching the models like I normally do
Title: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2019, 07:06:05 PM
OHX thoughts on the system- theyíre certainly paying attention:

Quote
Getting into the day Saturday, by 12Z, the upper trough axis
looks to be over the high Plains, and will quickly surge eastward
and develop a negative tilt as the axis is along the MO River
Valley by 00Z Sunday. This will keep the southeast with strong
southerly flow, especially in the low levels, and allow for
strong WAA and moisture advection bringing dewpoints into the
upper 50s across the area. Soundings show very strong shear, with
0-6km shear values around 50 to even 80 knots depending on which
model you choose. The instability is a bit on the low side,
however enough MUCAPE and especially shear values exist,
with the best area currently west of I-65. Low level helicity
values are also strong, and 0-1km shear is 40 knots or higher
between the models as well. With all of the shear present,
especially in the low levels, will definitely need to keep an eye
on the evolution of this system for late Saturday afternoon
through early Sunday morning for severe thunderstorm potential.
Models have been pretty consistent on timing so far, so when short
term models get to be within range, there will be more solutions
to contribute to confidence on storm potential and timing.

Not to mention hinting at another system next week...

Quote
Models diverge a bit on
solutions for Monday and Tuesday, however the GFS and ECMWF have
been pretty consistent showing another strong trough and
associated cold front for Wednesday/Wednesday night, which has the
potential to be another severe weather threat. But, that`s still
way out towards the end of the model runs, so a lot can change
over the coming week in regards to the evolution of next week`s
system.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: WXHD on March 05, 2019, 08:32:36 PM
Bruce called the event two weeks ago and, Iím inclined to listen to him this time too.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: wfrogge on March 05, 2019, 08:41:15 PM
Not sure what some of you are looking at but thatís ok. Negative tilt trof and a screaming low level jet to me are spelling possible trouble for the western part of the state.  Yeah things could change but we canít forecast based on that can we?   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 09:15:03 PM
Not sure what some of you are looking at but thatís ok. Negative tilt trof and a screaming low level jet to me are spelling possible trouble for the western part of the state.  Yeah things could change but we canít forecast based on that can we?
I give up.... im just glad were heading toward a active severe spring finally
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2019, 09:31:18 PM
Bruce called the event two weeks ago and, Iím inclined to listen to him this time too.

How did that one work out for Tennessee?
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 10:06:49 PM
How did that one work out for Tennessee?
sad...your area was quite. But my area had tornado warning plus other storms with rotation
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2019, 10:36:53 PM
sad...your area was quite. But my area had tornado warning plus other storms with rotation

Okay, let me rephrase. How did it perform relative to the hype?
Title: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2019, 10:40:52 PM
I give up.... im just glad were heading toward a active severe spring finally

After a couple of buckles of brief warm air, this pattern goes right back to where it is now on both GEFS and EPS. Granted 15 degrees below normal looks different in mid to late March than now... but the overall pattern wants to migrate back to a central trough.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 05, 2019, 10:55:39 PM
0Z GFS at the end of its run has a '93 Superstorm rerun...  ::rofl::

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2019, 11:28:38 PM
Bruce called the event two weeks ago and, Iím inclined to listen to him this time too.

Hardly but listen your heart out. Its going to rain in the next 20 days, watch and see....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2019, 07:42:16 AM
SPC:
Quote
In the meantime, widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast
   to expand across a large area from eastern portions of the central
   and southern Plains early Day 4, eastward/northeastward across the
   Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through
   Sunday morning.  Given the strength of this system, and the
   accompanying/strong kinematic field, risk for at least isolated
   severe storms remains evident -- including potential for damaging
   winds and some tornado risk.  However, a primary limiting factor
   appears likely to be limited CAPE (in part due to the widespread
   convective development).
As such, will maintain only 15% risk at
   this time, though strength of this system and accompanying
   deep-layer wind field warrants attention in future outlooks.

OHX:
Quote
As for the potential of strong to svr tstms Sat afternoon into
Sat night, latest SPC reasoning has almost all of mid state
expect Upper Cumberland Region in a 15% svr wx outlook for
this time period. Forecasted CAPE values presently will
potentially be a limiting factor, but given the strength of this
system, it is certainly not out of the question that some strong
tstms to a few svr tstms could be possible. Will highlight this
possibility in the morning HWO issuance. Again, this potential
system the result of a strong sfc low developing across the cntrl
plains by Sat morning with a sfc frontal system draped across the
deep south. This strong sfc low will move quickly into the cntrl
Great Lakes Region by Sun morning, dragging a strong cold front
across the mid state region. A negatively tilted significant upper
level trough will develop across the cntrl U.S in association
with a strong upper level low pressure system across the northern
plains supporting pronounced swly upper level flow. This upper
level low will become stacked vertically quite close to the sfc
low by Sun morning also, moving that pronounced upper level
troughing right across the mid state region too. This type of
synoptic setup generally brings at least an organized line of
tstms thru the mid state region.

BMX:
Quote
A more significant trough is expected to move across the
Intermountain West & eject into the Plains on Saturday. Given
ongoing return flow across the Southern Plains & lower Mississippi
River Valley (MRV), the more amplified trough will quickly establish
downstream height rises as theta-e advection ramps up along an
intensifying low-level jet (LLJ) west of the MRV. As a result, a
broad area of convective weather is expected to develop to our west
near the ArkLaTex & quickly move eastward as a transient shortwave
rotates around the primary trough axis undergoing negative tilt.
Thereafter, the ongoing thunderstorm activity is expected to move
along an associated surface front & LLJ axis & enter the western
portions of our forecast area as early as late Saturday afternoon.
Given the forecast intensity of the LLJ (40-60 kts at 850mb),
increased moisture & instability availability, as well westerly deep-
layer shear vectors of ~40-60 kts, any complex of thunderstorms will
maintain possible severe characteristics as they quickly move
eastward. Despite losing diabatic heating, overnight SBCAPE values
of 250-750 J/kg will be plenty considering the large scale deep-
layer forcing & ample kinetic wind energy with this system.
Therefore, will continue to advertise a Slight Risk across the
entire CWA as damaging winds & tornadoes are possible given forecast
hodograph curvatures & 0-3 km SRH values as high as 450-600 m2/s2.
Felt this was the plan of action for now & will be able to fine-tune
the severe risk area as we get closer to the event. Timing will
still be generally advertised as Saturday & Saturday night (&
possibly into Sunday morning), though changes to this will be
sharpened in that coming days also.

JAN:
Quote
Confidence continues to increase that a least a portion of the Lower
MS River Valley will be impacted by severe weather on Saturday as a
powerful storm system swings across the country. An upper trough
will cross the Rockies Friday night, becoming closed and negatively
tilted as it begins to approach the MS River Valley on Saturday.
Southerly flow will further increase across our region ahead of this
feature, pulling more moist, unstable air into the region from the
tropics. Although the region will remain removed from the main
surface low and the better upper level height falls, there should
still be enough forcing, especially in the north, to support severe
weather. Impressive 0-6 km shear values ranging between 50-70 kts
and MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 j/kg will help support a severe
weather risk further south into the ArkLaMiss. Looking at the latest
CIPs Analog guidance, each of the top 8 analogs for Saturday support
severe weather in or near our region. The main threats to our region
on Saturday will be damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. These threats
will be advertised by a slight risk in our latest HWO.

Meh.  Not impressed.  Again, there will undoubtedly be some warnings along the line due to the amount of wind shear that'll be bantering about.  Given the 2-3" of additional rainfall, downed trees may become an issue.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 06, 2019, 08:33:18 AM
0Z GFS at the end of its run has a '93 Superstorm rerun...  ::rofl::

(Attachment Link)

I looked back at that run.  Wow, that really was almost a carbon-copy of that event.  It disappeared this morning. . .
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 06, 2019, 09:10:42 AM
12znam coming in hot... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2019, 10:28:26 AM
12znam coming in hot... ::coffee::

If the warm sector can establish itself before crapvection overtakes it, there could be an improved parameter space W of the TN River.  Still not seeing an established TOR threat, though.  See what the NAM3 does with it later tonight.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 06, 2019, 11:53:52 AM
Honestly not seeing much of a threat with the latest 12z runs of GFS/NAM.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 06, 2019, 01:54:05 PM
Much like the last system, there may not be widespread severe weather, but the widespread strong winds could be as damaging.  Looks like another weekend of 50+ wind gusts.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2019, 08:45:35 PM
The NAM would be a more ominous event for our general area versus the GFS.  Usually, the NAM is overkill, but it if is not or the GFS and/or Euro trend to it then we will really need to watch our area.

For now, I am thinking a weakening QLCS with some severe threat with the worst of the threat centered in Southern Arkansas, but if the NAM were to verify we would be facing a greater magnitude threat.  Still got plenty of time to watch it. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 07:03:36 AM
No end in sight of the wet times according to the 6Z GFS.  It puts most of middle and east TN in the bulls-eye of additional heavy rainfall with more than 5" possible over the next 10 days. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 07:15:19 AM
Spc  seems think west Tennessee n part Tennessee valley  will have the best chance of severe weather now Saturday ... look for a 30 percent zone in tomorrow update ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 07, 2019, 07:42:13 AM
No end in sight of the wet times according to the 6Z GFS.  It puts most of middle and east TN in the bulls-eye of additional heavy rainfall with more than 5" possible over the next 10 days.
00Z Euro has 4-5" here just by Monday morning. I didn't go any further than that.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 08:05:24 AM
00Z Euro has 4-5" here just by Monday morning. I didn't go any further than that.

I don't think I can remember such a long, extremely wet pattern as this one has been.  It actually started after our mini-drought ended in early 2017.  We've had two wet summers back to back ('17 & '18), and since October we've been consistently well-above normal in rainfall.  At some point, the pendulum has to swing back the other way, but I don't see that happening anytime soon.  Hopefully, it won't swing as far to dry as we've been wet, or we'll have two+ years of extreme drought.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 07, 2019, 08:29:17 AM
It's a good thing we caught a break with the cold pattern.

Cold weather keeps us safe from precip these days. When it turns colder, that's a guarantee to halt the wet pattern. (tic)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 08:35:58 AM
Spc appears be putting lot stock in the nam model ...it establishes  pretty stout eml which helps clear out the crap convection our ahead the trough ... gfs and and euro seem be caving toward the nam... short range stuff going be interesting to watch for trends ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 10:46:17 AM
12Z GFS not looking good if you are sick of heavy rain.  It shows a system stalling out around the mid-state area near the middle of the month, dropping copious amounts of water. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 12:20:34 PM
Appears 12zgfs has lowered the slp on this system a bit .... nam still holding to a fairly good severe threat for most midsouth ... gfs starting cave toward nam bit more ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 07, 2019, 12:29:39 PM
That middle of the week system looks to be quite the concerning flood/severe weather double threat.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 01:42:40 PM
That middle of the week system looks to be quite the concerning flood/severe weather double threat.

Very much so.  Low pressure heads off into the Great Lakes, leaving the cold front to stall right over the middle of TN with a southwest flow paralleling the front.  Looks like waves of very heavy rain and strong storms for multiple days.  Scary, considering how high the lakes and rivers are now, and our saturated ground.  Recipe for disaster. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 01:47:13 PM
System mid next week looking like a multiple day severe outbreak potential for sure ...

Post Merge: March 07, 2019, 03:03:45 PM
Interesting afd from Little Rock disscusion  just updated. ...  tried pasting main part ... but didnít work lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 07, 2019, 03:28:06 PM
My one moment of excitement for this spring provided by these horrible models.

(https://i1.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2019030712_057_35.79--90.18.png)

Now back to reality that this won't happen and it will be 58 and rain saturday here in NEA.


Post Merge: March 07, 2019, 03:36:22 PM
I do find it funny that the models had that exact look for my area 3 days out two weeks ago.  Ended up being nothing close to that.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: justinmundie on March 07, 2019, 05:32:37 PM
System mid next week looking like a multiple day severe outbreak potential for sure ...

Post Merge: March 07, 2019, 03:03:45 PM
Interesting afd from Little Rock disscusion  just updated. ...  tried pasting main part ... but didnít work lol

Thatís what it looks like to me as well, especially down in central ms and Alabama. Broad trough with multiple pieces of energy rounding the base and a solid warm sector.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 05:43:33 PM
18Z GFS continues the worrisome trend of a stalled front bringing with it very heavy rain to middle Tennessee over the next 10 days (most of it falls late next week).  It shows 5-8" in areas from the Plateau westward to Nashville.  West TN gets some impressive amounts as well, while east TN seems to escape the brunt of it. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2019, 04:19:06 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1552040278306)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 08, 2019, 07:06:00 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1552040278306)

Meg has a great handle on this- very conditional. Shear is plentiful- instability may not line up with with best dynamics. Could be explosive discrete development in the enhanced areas- or maybe nothing at all. Maybe today will shed more light with instability recovery.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 08, 2019, 07:31:31 AM
The euro is on its own showing 4-6Ē of rain over NE AL, NW GA, and SE TN. Much lower amounts shown on the GFS. Local guys are calling for 1-2Ē here. Somebody is going to be very wrong.
EDIT: above amounts are only for this weekend. All models agree on even more heavy rain next week.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Flash on March 08, 2019, 07:36:38 AM
6z GFS hints at some sneaky lift in west KY. Could be a combo of diurnal heating/mixing/lapse rates? STP values seem higher just east of the current 'enhanced risk' as outlined by SPC. Still, I think if the SPC is going to adjust the 'Enhanced Risk', it will be to the north. Otherwise, not seeing much reason for excitement east of the TN River. Saving my gas $ for the next 'Moderate Risk'.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 08:11:07 AM
Meg has a great handle on this- very conditional. Shear is plentiful- instability may not line up with with best dynamics. Could be explosive discrete development in the enhanced areas- or maybe nothing at all. Maybe today will shed more light with instability recovery.

Evidenced perfectly by the CIPS analogs.  Some have severe reports, others have squadoosh.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/29wwmzk.png)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 11:41:45 AM
Enhanced risk got expanded north....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 08, 2019, 11:43:15 AM
3k NAM doesnít look all that impressive for redevelopment tomorrow afternoon.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 11:43:38 AM
Enhanced risk got expanded north....

(http://i65.tinypic.com/2u7t5zc.jpg)

Quote
...Eastern OK/TX into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys...
   Complicated forecast scenario exists for Saturday morning into
   afternoon across the region. An intense shortwave trough located
   over the southern Plains Saturday morning will quickly eject
   northeast toward the mid-MS Valley region by 00z. As this occurs,
   subsidence on the back side of the wave and midlevel dry-slot will
   move over portions of the lower MS Valley region, perhaps limiting
   convective development from midday into the afternoon. Additionally,
   stronger forcing for ascent will quickly shift northeast toward the
   mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys by midday. Additionally, widespread showers
   and thunderstorms, will be ongoing at the beginning of the period
   across much of the warm sector. Some strong to severe storms are
   possible early from far eastern OK/TX, spreading east/northeast
   through the morning.  As such, several flies in the ointment exist
   regarding where the greater severe threat will materialize.

   Given expected ongoing convection and widespread cloud cover across
   the warm sector, destabilization will be limited to generally 1000
   J/kg or less, with the axis of greatest instability expected from
   late morning into early afternoon across the MS River Delta region
   of eastern AR into far northwest MS/western TN and the MO
   Bootheel/far western KY vicinity, and the Enhanced risk area has
   been focused in this corridor. With the shortwave expected to
   quickly eject northeastward, stronger forcing for ascent is expected
   to exist further north than previously forecast. As such, a more
   isolated to widely scattered severe threat is expected across much
   of east TX into MS, and severe probs have been shifted northward to
   reflect this.

   Guidance continues to suggest a couple of waves of severe storms are
   possible. The initial morning convection associated with the strong
   low level jet and warm advection regime is expected to move across
   much of the lower MS Valley by midday. Guidance then suggests
   another round of convection will develop along the cold front during
   the afternoon from southern MO into northern AR, and perhaps more
   isolated development further south into northern AR and central MS.
   This semi-discrete convection will have the potential for damaging
   winds, hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon hours. Some
   upscale growth into bowing line segments is expected with eastward
   extent into the lower OH and TN Valley late in the afternoon and
   evening hours.

Sounds much more like a response to data suggesting a damaging wind threat than anything else.  Have to watch anything that barks ahead of the main line across MS. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 11:50:45 AM
Appears anywhere along n just south warm front has the potential produce tornado ....guess extended north as the better dynamics get pulled north with slp...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 08, 2019, 01:24:14 PM
Now Day 2 outlooks include this on the bottom:

Quote
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  10%     - Enhanced
   Wind:     30%     - Enhanced
   Hail:     30% SIG - Enhanced

That is the one for tomorrow's event.  This provides more insight into what the SPC is thinking about when it comes to hazards. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 08, 2019, 02:24:53 PM
Is it just me or is this thing playing out exactly like it did two weeks ago?
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 03:28:26 PM
OHX:

Quote
Location of the upper low has moved further southeast slightly,
but models have it a bit weaker as well. The trough will still be
largely negatively tilted by 00Z Sunday, with the axis over the
northern MS River Valley in the upper Midwest. The 850 mb LLJ
remains strong, with 50-70 knots out of the SSW ahead of the main
band of showers and thunderstorms. Severe parameters have not
changed much from previous runs except for the MUCAPE values have
decreased slightly as you go east of I-65. SPC has backed up the
slight risk to the west, however, it still remains for the I-65
corridor and west for tomorrow. Instability does fall off rapidly
after 00Z, so the severe threat may be limited to just a few hours
after sunset. Wind shear remains strong, both for 0-6km deep
layer shear at 50-80 knots and 0-1 km shear 40 to 50 knots. 0-3km
helicity is holding at 300-600 m2/s2, and evident in hodographs
per model soundings showing strong curvature in the low levels.
The main threats remain damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, some
hail, and flash flooding with any heavy rain during short time
periods.

Concerns/limitations for this event remain in place as mentioned
in yesterday's discussion. First, there may be 2 main bands of
showers and thunderstorms suggested by some CAM guidance, with
the question of how much of the atmosphere will be worked over by
the first round and limiting the second round. Morning showers
before the better instability moves in during the afternoon may
work over the area a bit, and could decrease the coverage of
strong to severe thunderstorms. Second, many soundings show a
stable shallow boundary layer, which may result in elevated
instability and may decrease the overall severe threat. Storms
that are rooted with surface instability will have much higher
chances for stronger winds reaching the surface, as well as the
potential for tornadic development. However, with the strong shear
in place, strong LLJ, and decent instability during the afternoon
and evening, both rounds of showers and thunderstorms will have
the potential for severe thunderstorms before the environment
weakens later in the evening.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2019, 04:11:56 PM
MEG

Quote
As the warm front surges north by 15Z. A second round of
thunderstorm activity will begin to push in from the west ahead of
a pre-frontal trof. This activity will quickly push east into
Middle Tennessee by midday as a third round of thunderstorm
activity will develop along the cold front. This activity will
push across the CWA during the late afternoon into the early
afternoon hours. This third round of activity is the one of most
concern as it will occur with the best instability. There have
been concerns that the potent shortwave would lift off to the
northeast before this convection would develop. The latest 18Z NAM
shows that the shortwave will be passing through the region just
as these thunderstorms will be developing. The Enhanced Risk has
been pushed to the north to align with the stronger forcing for
ascent than the previous DAY 2 issued early this morning. Greatest area
of concern for severe thunderstorms with the possibility of
tornadoes will be across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel
into Northwest Tennessee. South of this area, there remains
questions on how far removed from the forcing will the
thunderstorms still be able to become severe. The 12Z NSSL WRF
and 12Z HRRR show a vigorous line tracking across North
Mississippi while other CAM models show limited development south
of Interstate 40. Thus a lot of questions remain about tomorrow
and a lot it just comes down to timing of the shortwave. Stay
tuned for forecasts updates with the latest information.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 08, 2019, 04:25:36 PM
Dejavu all over again. Every single model has once again grossly underestimated qpf today. Iíve got 0.65Ē in the bucket. Looks like the UK was the closest to being correct, but it was still low. Even the euro, which has by far the heaviest rains this weekend, is way behind.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 06:13:39 PM
Each run of the hrrr is looking more almarming for tomorrow . Here done great job in the event last weekend ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 06:20:58 PM
Each run of the hrrr is looking more almarming for tomorrow . Here done great job in the event last weekend ...

For once, I'd love for you to give specifics and not abstract postings.  Not everyone has the time to look at the model sites.  I know I don't.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 08, 2019, 06:23:21 PM
For once, I'd love for you to give specifics and not abstract postings.  Not everyone has the time to look at the model sites.  I know I don't.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/a1eb95c164d3a7343ad72f42e53ea1d8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/ccaccd5af41ce2f5c82dc64e54eda96e.jpg)

Thatís the extended HRR- and we know it can be fickle. Simulated radar tomorrow afternoon plus cape. It hasnít even hit the short term more reliable HRR yet
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 06:27:58 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/a1eb95c164d3a7343ad72f42e53ea1d8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/ccaccd5af41ce2f5c82dc64e54eda96e.jpg)

Thatís the extended HRR- and we know it can be fickle. Simulated radar tomorrow afternoon plus cape. It hasnít even hit the short term more reliable HRR yet

Verbatim, I'd be concerned with those "tail end Charlie's".  The embedded convection doesn't concern me too much.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 06:29:18 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/a1eb95c164d3a7343ad72f42e53ea1d8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/ccaccd5af41ce2f5c82dc64e54eda96e.jpg)

Thatís the extended HRR- and we know it can be fickle. Simulated radar tomorrow afternoon plus cape. It hasnít even hit the short term more reliable HRR yet
thanks. Helping me curt.  Couldnít post image ... dang it
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 08, 2019, 06:34:14 PM
Those SE Arkansas/North Mississippi tail-end storms have the most potential if the HRRR is on to something and depending on instability potentially the storms out ahead of the mass in S IL/W KY.  Remember even though the HRRR did a good job last weekend in the Deep South it has a history of really overblowing things in our neck of the woods.  The Groundhog Day Bust of 2016 and the event two weekends ago are examples of that. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 08, 2019, 08:15:03 PM
again like the last event, don't see it being much of a tornadic threat here....west of tn river and south into Mississippi is what I am thinking

Post Merge: March 08, 2019, 08:16:12 PM
on a side note I honestly cannot remember the last time we had a significant threat without a rain shield prior to the event which hampers the entire event
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 08:27:23 PM
again like the last event, don't see it being much of a tornadic threat here....west of tn river and south into Mississippi is what I am thinking

Post Merge: March 08, 2019, 08:16:12 PM
on a side note I honestly cannot remember the last time we had a significant threat without a rain shield prior to the event which hampers the entire event
hrrr really want to recover the atmosphere quite nicely for latter in afternoon ... hrrr been on a roll lately
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2019, 09:42:44 PM
Reed Timmer staying in Memphis tonight. He is targeting Eastern Arkansas and boot heel as it stands now.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Lcwthrnut on March 08, 2019, 10:22:24 PM
Saw a post on Facebook that said ďAt least when we spring forward tomorrow night we will lose an hour of rainfallĒ
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 08, 2019, 10:53:35 PM
Completely off topic but Reed was in Colorado yesterday. You have to pay me a bunch of money to do as much driving as he does.

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 12:02:40 AM
Huge change tonight

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1552111268956)

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1552111334477)

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif?1552111403821)


Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 12:13:54 AM
Quote
Day 1 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
   OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHEAST MS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
   gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through
   the early evening.  A strong tornado is possible from the confluence
   of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern
   Mississippi and northwest Alabama.

   ...Synopsis...
   A vigorous, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move
   from the central/southern Great Plains to the lower MO Valley by mid
   afternoon and subsequently into the Great Lakes after dark.  An
   intense 90kt 500mb speed max will translate east-northeast from OK
   into the lower OH Valley by early evening.  In the low levels, a
   surface low will develop northeast from central KS to the IA/IL/MO
   border by 6pm and into the central Great Lakes overnight.  A warm
   front over the Mid South will advance northward into the lower OH
   Valley by peak heating and a composite dryline/Pacific front will
   arc south-southeast from the low into eastern AR and southwestward
   into east TX by mid afternoon before sweeping east across the OH
   Valley late.

   ...Eastern OK/TX into the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys...
   A complex forecast scenario with associated uncertainty
   appropriately describes the risk for severe thunderstorms and
   possible tornadoes across portions of the Mid South into the lower
   OH Valley today.  At the start of the period, a couple of clusters
   of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across western
   portions of the larger-risk area in parts of northeast TX into
   eastern OK/western AR.  Varying possible solutions are evident in
   model data whether all or parts of this activity moves downstream
   with intermittent intensification into the MS Valley during the day
   or whether some of this activity weakens on the southern portion
   near the Ark-La-Tex during the late morning.  Hail, wind, and
   perhaps a tornado or two are possible with the early-day storms over
   the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.

   Farther east, an adequately moist/destabilizing warm sector will
   spread north and northeast in wake of the warm front with surface
   dewpoints ranging from near 60 degrees F in the lower OH Valley to
   the middle 60s farther south into TN/AR/MS/AL.  Model guidance
   correspondingly indicates weaker buoyancy will exist farther north
   (MLCAPEs at or below 500 J/kg north of the OH river to 750-1250 J/kg
   farther south) but extreme low-level shear.  Hodographs become very
   large by early-mid afternoon with flow increasing from 70-90kt in
   the 850-500mb layer over the northern half of the Enhanced Risk
   area.  It seems plausible some attempts at storm development will
   occur during the afternoon near the leading edge of the mid-level
   dry slot.  If the stronger updrafts become sustained, they will
   likely evolve into supercells with tornado potential.  A corridor of
   possibility for supercell tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears
   greatest from the OH/MS confluence southward into northern portions
   of MS on the trailing portion of large-scale ascent moving away from
   the area.  As storms encounter weaker buoyancy farther east and
   northeast during the evening, a transition to linear structures
   capable primarily of damaging winds may occur.

   ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/09/2019
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 12:17:30 PM
12Z GFS says we aren't done with winter just yet.  Several cold shots appear on the horizon after mid month, and more frosts and freezing temperatures appear possible, if not likely.  We may even see snow flying from time to time.

But after a cold late March, April appears warmer, and possibly stormy.  Some long range models show a warm east U.S., and cold lingering in the High Plains and Rockies.  That spells an active severe season in April, and a polar opposite to what we saw last year.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 10, 2019, 12:23:13 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190310/c927a67e091693eaf1b39abc49ee6eab.jpg)

This wonít help to get things very warm quickly.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 10, 2019, 12:35:12 PM
12Z GFS says we aren't done with winter just yet.  Several cold shots appear on the horizon after mid month, and more frosts and freezing temperatures appear possible, if not likely.  We may even see snow flying from time to time.

But after a cold late March, April appears warmer, and possibly stormy.  Some long range models show a warm east U.S., and cold lingering in the High Plains and Rockies.  That spells an active severe season in April, and a polar opposite to what we saw last year.
preach it brother....

Post Merge: March 10, 2019, 12:40:39 PM
12Z GFS says we aren't done with winter just yet.  Several cold shots appear on the horizon after mid month, and more frosts and freezing temperatures appear possible, if not likely.  We may even see snow flying from time to time.

But after a cold late March, April appears warmer, and possibly stormy.  Some long range models show a warm east U.S., and cold lingering in the High Plains and Rockies.  That spells an active severe season in April, and a polar opposite to what we saw last year.
been reading some thoughts over America wx ... some severe experst calling for a active severe eather season april to mid may...some thoughts from most saying calling least one violent outbreak across south... before things get active in the plains later... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 10, 2019, 02:33:28 PM
One thing we all should have learned last several years is the wx wonít be predictable.  Anything past 5 days is going to change.  I donít believe in any LR or MR forecast.  The models have no clue what they are doing.  From the MJO to the PNA to NAO to AO to Who knows what we be said next is affecting the wx patterns.  Bottom line to me is only pay attention to no more than 3 days. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 03:03:47 PM
I'm lovin' it.  Today's weather, that is.  It's whetting my appetite for more.  I hope we have some perfect 70's through most of April into May, before the summer heat sets in. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 10, 2019, 03:58:12 PM
I'm lovin' it.  Today's weather, that is.  It's whetting my appetite for more.  I hope we have some perfect 70's through most of April into May, before the summer heat sets in.

Same. If we arenít going to get snow, then my next most favorite weather is sunny with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 04:47:55 PM
Same. If we arenít going to get snow, then my next most favorite weather is sunny with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Outside of winter weather, spring and fall (the transition seasons) are my favorite.  Unfortunately, the transition time seems to be shrinking. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 10, 2019, 05:49:46 PM
+PNA and the expected MJO should keep us in some cooler than normal weather after this week.  The +PNA will probably last through my trip out west (just because lol but at least that will give me some nice sunny weather). That kinda matches with El-Nino springtime conditions as well as they tend to feature active late-April/May periods severe wise. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 10, 2019, 08:42:09 PM
Going to see a massive Colorado cyclone on Wed and Thurs. Looks like northeast Colorado to South Dakota could get 20-30 inches of snow with 60 mph gusts.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 10, 2019, 08:59:04 PM
Going to see a massive Colorado cyclone on Wed and Thurs. Looks like northeast Colorado to South Dakota could get 20-30 inches of snow with 60 mph gusts.
now. That is what you call a true blizzard  there... wow
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: NashRugger on March 10, 2019, 10:42:18 PM
Going to see a massive Colorado cyclone on Wed and Thurs. Looks like northeast Colorado to South Dakota could get 20-30 inches of snow with 60 mph gusts.
Classic Colorado Low track and bombing out and occluding rapidly, then filling as it moves towards/into the Midwest.

This is the Front Range's prime time of year for big snows.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on March 11, 2019, 04:27:11 AM
We spent the weekend in northern VA, which meant driving in snow almost the whole way from Knoxville on Friday and watching it accumulate nicely on Friday night, followed by everything melting on Saturday.  It wasn't much, but like most of the rest of the board is as much as I've seen this season.

But, this really isn't a snow post, which is why it's in the spring thread.  On Friday, a loaded barge (about 1,000 tons of material) broke loose below Fort Loudon Dam and traveled several miles downstream, being caught just 600 yards from a collision with a bridge on I-75.  Obviously that kind of impact could structurally compromise a bridge and they had the interstate closed for a period of time until the barge was under control.  This happened because of the incredibly high flow rate below Fort Loudon Dam, an environment we're likely to see throughout the Tennessee River system through the spring as we stay wet with already full reservoirs.  Severe outbreaks get lots of press, and I admit to getting excited and watching them unfold, but this barge incident highlights the multitude of problems we may see from the incredible volume of water that has fallen on our region over the past several months, combined with what may still come in the spring.

An original article about the barge incident is available here https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/local/2019/03/10/what-happened-friday-nights-runaway-barge-loudon-county-i-75-bridge/3123557002/ for anybody who may be interested.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2019, 08:54:41 AM
2 days ago models said sunny and mid 60ís for Monday.  Well obviously that is not gonna happen.  Low 50ís and rain.  Models are useless these days it seems.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2019, 09:00:28 AM
Thankfully, the models were wrong about Wednesday's extreme heavy rain event they were showing last week with a stalled front.  While we'll see rain later this week, it's nothing out of the ordinary for March.

West TN looks to receive the heaviest amounts in the next 7 days, while eastern areas see an inch or less. 

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1552312572)

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 11, 2019, 09:01:11 AM
No offense, Matthew, but I find many of your posts to be unreasonably negative. I'm no meteorologist, but I wouldn't argue models are useless at all just because they can't always predict the future.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2019, 09:06:31 AM
No offense, Matthew, but I find many of your posts to be unreasonably negative. I'm no meteorologist, but I wouldn't argue models are useless at all just because they can't always predict the future.

Let me correct my statement.  Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 11, 2019, 09:17:18 AM
Let me correct my statement.  Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days.

 ::pondering:: That's a safe bet in the winter season. 2018-2019 was painful for snow lovers and model watchers. It was like the State Farm commerical with the fisherman dangling the dollar in front of us and jerking it away when we tried to snatch it. We'd kill for even just a 1" event and couldn't get it. ::rant::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2019, 09:33:13 AM
Let me correct my statement.  Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days.

There was a huge shift in your outlook as winter progressed.  And I get it.  This winter left many of us feeling jaded and disappointed.  And long-range models sucked this year. 

Nevertheless, our current weather models are the best we've got, and the best fallible humans can come up with to predict future events in a dynamic and very chaotic system like Earth's weather.  While far from perfect, or even good at times, they haven't been around that long in reality.  Go back 50 years and look at what forecasters had to use.  Tomorrow's weather was hard to forecast back then, and you could forget 3-5 days. 

Having said that, I do understand your frustration with models and long range forecasts after this winter.  We all had a bitter pill to swallow as winter progressed and our high hopes were dashed on the rocks of disappointment.  But, all we can do is let it go and hope for something better next year. 

In the meantime, have some ice cream.  It always makes me feel better.   ;)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: NashRugger on March 11, 2019, 09:41:53 AM
The winter failed because of me. I moved to St. Louis on January 4th and a week later 11" got dumped. I took it with me, sorry about it.  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JHart on March 11, 2019, 10:05:43 AM
The winter failed because of me. I moved to St. Louis on January 4th and a week later 11" got dumped. I took it with me, sorry about it.  ::evillaugh::

Or, perhaps, St. Louis only got eleven inches because you were there.   ::guitar::

Perspective, like commas, matters.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 11, 2019, 11:36:37 AM
This winter didn't have much effect on me because, honestly, I think I've been jaded for years when it comes to winter weather. I never really felt it coming into this winter... and, I never really bought into any of the optimistic assessments earlier on. It's just par for the course.

I guess I'm getting to an age when I realize life is too short to dwell on things like that. If we ever get another nice, big snowfall again, then I hope to enjoy that when the time comes. Until then, life goes on.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 11, 2019, 12:14:52 PM
I left my dogs outside today. Wasnít expecting rain at all.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 11, 2019, 12:50:46 PM
Thursday looks stormy. I'm wishful for some interesting severe weather on that day.

After that, any severe threat is marginal until late in the month. It will feel less like spring and more like November come time for the equinox. Fortunately, we are likely to dry out a bit along with the cooler air.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2019, 02:02:52 PM
There was a huge shift in your outlook as winter progressed.  And I get it.  This winter left many of us feeling jaded and disappointed.  And long-range models sucked this year. 

Nevertheless, our current weather models are the best we've got, and the best fallible humans can come up with to predict future events in a dynamic and very chaotic system like Earth's weather.  While far from perfect, or even good at times, they haven't been around that long in reality.  Go back 50 years and look at what forecasters had to use.  Tomorrow's weather was hard to forecast back then, and you could forget 3-5 days. 

Having said that, I do understand your frustration with models and long range forecasts after this winter.  We all had a bitter pill to swallow as winter progressed and our high hopes were dashed on the rocks of disappointment.  But, all we can do is let it go and hope for something better next year. 

In the meantime, have some ice cream.  It always makes me feel better.   ;)

I agree Jaycee.  Models do help with near term.  I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days.  The models are not able to understand all the changes because it takes human input to help them understand.  We donít understand what is happening ourselves.  The models for some reason have a cold bias these days.  Only to be warmer as we get within 2-3 days.  I see us slightly cooler to near normal when March ends.  I can tolerate 55-60 and sunny.  Just no 40ís and rain please.  Soccer is much more enjoyable wo that! 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2019, 02:10:18 PM
I agree Jaycee.  Models do help with near term.  I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days.  The models are not able to understand all the changes because it takes human input to help them understand.  We donít understand what is happening ourselves.  The models for some reason have a cold bias these days.  Only to be warmer as we get within 2-3 days.  I see us slightly cooler to near normal when March ends.  I can tolerate 55-60 and sunny.  Just no 40ís and rain please.  Soccer is much more enjoyable wo that!

The models sure screwed up today's forecast.  We've had a half inch of rain on a day it wasn't supposed to rain at all here.  Now that's model madness.   :o
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 11, 2019, 04:25:46 PM
Our mid-week storm may be better known as "An American Wind Machine" versus any type of water attraction.   

The WPSD in house model showed 50MPH+ winds in NW TN and Western KY on Thursday and its expansive potentially sub 975MB strength suggests a very potent cyclone and a whole lot of wind advisories and high wind warnings needed across the country.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 11, 2019, 05:30:00 PM
Our mid-week storm may be better known as "An American Wind Machine" versus any type of water attraction.   

The WPSD in house model showed 50MPH+ winds in NW TN and Western KY on Thursday and its expansive potentially sub 975MB strength suggests a very potent cyclone and a whole lot of wind advisories and high wind warnings needed across the country.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190311/b3ff1af6412a738752d90b08579d3b30.jpg)

That **might** require a high wind warning. Itís just behind the front too
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: WXHD on March 11, 2019, 06:30:01 PM
I agree Jaycee.  Models do help with near term.  I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days.

As far as I know, the American Republican Party is the only political party in the whole world  that denies, demeans and refuses to acknowledge ďClimate Change.Ē Our global  climate may be changing, much of it may be beyond our control. But locally, pollution is driving it. No matter who you are, your stream, creeks, rivers and oceans that just a few generations ago were safe to drink from and eat from are polluted. Thatís changed and, those changes arenít cyclical. Not being able to drink water from the Mississippi River is very much ďMan Made.Ē Thereís a multi-billion dollar industry that does nothing but clean water and sell it to us in a plastic bottle. The by-product of that is just dirtier water. You can say that this season or that season was just ďdue to sunspots.Ē  But, sunspots arenít why we have lead in our water, theyíre  not why we have pharmaceuticals in our water and, theyíre surely not the reason we have air pollution. You and I are why we have these problems. And, you and I have to change. I know that wind and solar energy arenít ďfreeĒ but, coal and oil are doing nothing but getting rarer and more expensive. Anyone who doesnít adapt is going to die and, our country is powerful enough to take the whole human species with. We are also, as individuals, numerous enough to bind together and make a difference.

More of the same ainít going to help us. When you get a chance for your voice to be heard, be loud.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Icestorm on March 11, 2019, 06:56:54 PM
Wow someone needs a chill pill, in the end no matter what anyone says or does, we all will die, nothing will stop that. 😆
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 11, 2019, 07:13:22 PM
Wow someone needs a chill pill, in the end no matter what anyone says or does, we all will die, nothing will stop that. 😆

Youíd make an excellent motivational speaker. Iíd pay money to hear ya!
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 11, 2019, 07:21:08 PM
(https://i.gifer.com/JNs.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Drifter49 on March 11, 2019, 07:26:50 PM
now. That is what you call a true blizzard  there... wow

Hmmm I may have to get some of that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 11, 2019, 08:44:24 PM
https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/ (https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: WXHD on March 11, 2019, 09:11:16 PM
(https://i.gifer.com/JNs.gif)

I will upvote that every single time.

Post Merge: March 11, 2019, 09:33:33 PM
https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/ (https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/)


ďMoore noted how ďgreenĒ companies parasitize taxpayers via favorable regulations and subsidies ostensibly justified by the aforementioned narrativeís claimed threats, all while enjoying propagandistic protection across news media.Ē

 ::drowning::



Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 12, 2019, 09:48:27 AM
FWIW- SPC does have a slight risk for parts of Mid and West TN on Thursday.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 12, 2019, 09:57:50 AM
I think it's been six months or better since I've seen these dark browns over Tennessee.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 12, 2019, 12:14:41 PM
I think it's been six months or better since I've seen these dark browns over Tennessee.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)

Not often I like to see dryer than normal on the map, but that is a good thing to see.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 12, 2019, 12:18:55 PM
Not often I like to see dryer than normal on the map, but that is a good thing to see.
really... even if itís just for 5 days ....lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 12, 2019, 02:18:07 PM
Not often I like to see dryer than normal on the map, but that is a good thing to see.

I prefer wet over dry myself, but we've had enough wet lately.   We need a good long stretch of drier weather.

Local farmers have become concerned, as this is when they usually turn over the soil and fertilize to prepare for spring planting.  They can't even get into the fields right now, much less work the soil. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 12, 2019, 05:33:34 PM
We should of all been born and raised in the Northern Nebraska Panhandle.  We would get to see 18-24 inches of snow, 60-65MPH wind gusts, and even up to 1/4th of an inch of ice. 

I don't think anyone would ever complain about how bad the winter sucked after a storm like that.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 12, 2019, 05:41:00 PM
We should of all been born and raised in the Northern Nebraska Panhandle.  We would get to see 18-24 inches of snow, 60-65MPH wind gusts, and even up to 1/4th of an inch of ice. 

I don't think anyone would ever complain about how bad the winter sucked after a storm like that.
that's about 10 years worth of winters for most of us... lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 13, 2019, 10:07:06 AM
After Thursday, the next 7 days appear relatively cool by March standards.  Frosts and near freezing temperatures look to occur over a big part of the area starting this weekend, and multiple days next week. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 13, 2019, 10:30:01 AM
After Thursday, the next 7 days appear relatively cool by March standards.  Frosts and near freezing temperatures look to occur over a big part of the area starting this weekend, and multiple days next week.
yeah. But overall models r backing off some on the colder temps ... slightly cooler times than late March standards ... nothing extreme thank god
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 13, 2019, 11:28:32 AM
Models have a cold bias these days.  Used to be only the CMC did.  When it gets with in 2-3 days they are usually much warmer.  I will take near 60 and sunny next week.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 13, 2019, 04:20:22 PM
80 mph wind gusts at Denver Intl with heavy snow reported.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 13, 2019, 05:45:42 PM
Get ready for some wind.  This system is packin'  it. 

https://youtu.be/edKFsuiytCg (https://youtu.be/edKFsuiytCg)
Title: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 15, 2019, 07:14:02 AM
Though thankfully not much in TN so far, it seems like weíve started an active tornado season compared to previous years.

Things look stable for the next week.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 15, 2019, 07:34:54 AM
The "bomb" only dropped .28" of rain here overnight with little fanfare.  I think I saw a faint flash of distant lightning through sleepy eyes in the middle of the night, but that's about it. 

Appears we'll have a cool, but mostly dry week ahead, and one of the longest dry stretches we've seen since last October.  Several frosty nights look likely with lows near freezing Saturday through Wednesday over much of TN.  6-10 & 8-14 day outlooks keep us below normal rain-wise, so no more flooding rains on the horizon.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 15, 2019, 09:34:09 AM
The "bomb" only dropped .28" of rain here overnight with little fanfare.  I think I saw a faint flash of distant lightning through sleepy eyes in the middle of the night, but that's about it. 

Appears we'll have a cool, but mostly dry week ahead, and one of the longest dry stretches we've seen since last October.  Several frosty nights look likely with lows near freezing Saturday through Wednesday over much of TN.  6-10 & 8-14 day outlooks keep us below normal rain-wise, so no more flooding rains on the horizon.
guess we need to enjoy the break... things look to ramp up end of the month... going into april
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 15, 2019, 09:56:45 AM
guess we need to enjoy the break... things look to ramp up end of the month... going into april

With a weak El Nino possibly sticking around through summer, I doubt we'll have many long dry stretches this spring.  So, yeah, best enjoy this one. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 16, 2019, 06:24:29 AM
I am glad we have this cool, dry pattern for the next week... besides the chance to dry out we look to dip below freezing a few nights. Good to still see that in mid March as it should slow down the emergence of flowering vegetation to give things a better chance in case we get a late freeze later on.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JHart on March 16, 2019, 08:17:29 AM
I am expecting a late freeze --- my grandparents used to say "Winter lingers when Easter is late."  As a kid in central Arkansas, I remember the 'old folks' planting their corn and beans on Good Friday every year.

I'm sure they ended up with bean-cicles from time to time, but I don't recall it ever happening.  :)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 16, 2019, 11:11:51 AM
Buds on a lot of trees are ďpregnantĒ... and some redbuds and a few other flowering trees have started. Hopefully, not the fruit trees yet.

Bradford pears are flowering, but we donít care about those... in fact the more damage to be done to them, the better.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2019, 12:14:38 PM
Looks like on model guiadance and ensembles ... 26 27 th period got a nice amp system to produce widespread  severe...  just looking down road bit....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 16, 2019, 02:44:56 PM
For now, we get a week of nice weather.

The 8-14 day and potentially beyond pattern looks a bit concerning with troughing undercutting the western USA ridge.  Our active subtropical jet will be a concern as well.  It is a pattern that is favorable for the return of stormy weather if it verifies, but for now, it is time to enjoy our break.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 16, 2019, 04:41:04 PM
River Flood Warning issued for Davidson County.

The tears of Big Blue Nation are raging.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2019, 05:39:03 PM
River Flood Warning issued for Davidson County.

The tears of Big Blue Nation are raging.  ::rofl::
post of year. .... go big orange ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 16, 2019, 06:27:25 PM
If we can't beat you all in basketball or football we will beat you all in snowfall. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 16, 2019, 06:48:06 PM
If we can't beat you all in basketball or football we will beat you all in snowfall.

How our teams played today could very well escort both of us to Minneapolis. Aside from the subpar SEC officiating, that game was incredible to watch.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2019, 07:01:29 PM
How our teams played today could very well escort both of us to Minneapolis. Aside from the subpar SEC officiating, that game was incredible to watch.
yeah it had a final 4 feel to it...

Post Merge: March 16, 2019, 07:05:17 PM
If we can't beat you all in basketball or football we will beat you all in snowfall.
sounds like you beat us in getting tornadoes 🌪 also
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 17, 2019, 08:13:22 AM
Got down to 29 this morning & looks like several more frosts and/or freezes possible over the next 5 days. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 17, 2019, 08:21:44 AM
Yeah- heavy frost here- about as white as it got here all winter...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JHart on March 17, 2019, 08:35:32 AM
After protecting my bay tree in the garage all season, I set it outside last week to get some sun and lost all of its buds to last nights  frickn' unpredicted 24F.  Words can't describe how much I hate this winter.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 17, 2019, 12:35:24 PM
The long range pattern of Southwest troughing and the active Pacific Firehose (6 to 16 days out) on the 12Z GFS will make the following people happy:

- BRUCE
- Nashville WX if he is out West
- Park City, Utah
- Reed Timmer
- Sierra Nevada Mountain Range
- Vail, CO
- Vertical Video Stars who scream "CENSORED there is a CENSORED nader down it done lift that cow over there by grandpa we goin die but I gotta put it on Facebook live"   
- Wind Farms in the Plains   

Title: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 17, 2019, 01:36:33 PM
The long range pattern of Southwest troughing and the active Pacific Firehose (6 to 16 days out) on the 12Z GFS will make the following people happy:

- BRUCE
- Nashville WX if he is out West
- Park City, Utah
- Reed Timmer
- Sierra Nevada Mountain Range
- Vail, CO
- Vertical Video Stars who scream "CENSORED there is a CENSORED nader down it done lift that cow over there by grandpa we goin die but I gotta put it on Facebook live"   
- Wind Farms in the Plains

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/4c/55/de4c55ae7996e4333b3ca889cb9ae120.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 17, 2019, 02:27:23 PM
Sassy and classy  8) 

We have a nice string of nice days to enjoy before things go crazy again. Usually, in this pattern, the highs and lows are both underestimated because of clear skies and calmer winds really bring out the diurnal swings.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 17, 2019, 02:52:48 PM
I could go for a month of this weekends weather. Did yard work all day yesterday and am enjoying a nice sunny and 65 day today.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 17, 2019, 02:53:45 PM
War Eagle !!!!!
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 17, 2019, 04:28:21 PM
I could go for a month of this weekends weather. Did yard work all day yesterday and am enjoying a nice sunny and 65 day today.

Saturday was a little chilly here, but today's 62 and blue sky was absolutely perfect!
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 17, 2019, 04:42:52 PM
War Eagle !!!!!

When your students live in off-campus trailer parks and your biggest tradition is throwing toilet paper in trees, I guess you need to win in something every once in a while

30-24
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 17, 2019, 09:57:24 PM
When your students live in off-campus trailer parks and your biggest tradition is throwing toilet paper in trees, I guess you need to win in something every once in a while

30-24
I was more happy with UT beating Kentucky than I was Auburn winning today. I think UT left it on on the court Saturday and it showed today.
It is evident that you have never been to Auburnís campus.One of the nicest ones around. We throw toilet paper and you paint a rock.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 17, 2019, 10:55:34 PM
Vols were gassed today. They are a bunch of 2 and 3 stars, and we have seen their ceiling against Kentucky.

Anywho, I didn't just make that up about Auburn students living in trailers- they live in literal trailers. It's a popular and affordable means of housing there. Thank goodness those twisters missed AU proper earlier this month.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/auburn/comments/60l3yo/admitted_veterinary_student_here_where_is_a/

http://gentillypark.com
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 18, 2019, 07:00:20 AM
Vols were gassed today. They are a bunch of 2 and 3 stars, and we have seen their ceiling against Kentucky.

Anywho, I didn't just make that up about Auburn students living in trailers- they live in literal trailers. It's a popular and affordable means of housing there. Thank goodness those twisters missed AU proper earlier this month.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/auburn/comments/60l3yo/admitted_veterinary_student_here_where_is_a/

http://gentillypark.com
if they can beat Kentucky 2 out 3... they could beat anybody .... got tough draw early with cincy possible looming ... game be played in Columbus Ohio... cincy is very under seeded also ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 18, 2019, 07:32:33 AM
In the realm of weather, it was below 32F here again this morning (30), and we might have at least 2 more nights of freezing temperatures in the foothills.  It could be the longest stretch of freezing weather at night outside of the short "Arctic outbreak" in January.  Considering it's mid-March, that shows what a terrible winter we've endured here. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 18, 2019, 09:19:13 PM
Look at the 12Z and 18Z GFS suite with its warm Southwestern USA and colder than normal SE after the March 25th/27th severe threat.  Pretty much did a flip in the long range. 

Whether that verifies who knows anymore especially when it comes to the GFS model suite.  If it does that Vertical Video Vinnie may not get as much coverage. 

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 19, 2019, 05:29:49 AM
If the GFS is to be believed we finally get the blocking that we have been looking for. Looks to be a cold end of March and start of April.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 19, 2019, 05:42:29 AM
Record flooding is occurring in Nebraska and other areas in the upper Midwest. Thereís a 70-mile stretch of interstate closed on I-29, the main route between Kansas City and Omaha. A nuclear power plant is cut off and is only accessible by helicopter to bring in supplies.

http://sandhillsexpress.com/featured-news/portions-of-interstate-29-closed-highway-2-closed-at-nebraska-city-missouri-river-bridge/

Of course, all that water has to eventually empty into the Mississippi.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 19, 2019, 06:58:56 AM
Yet another freeze this morning--down to 28.  On my way to work, I noticed temperatures as low as 25 in some open valleys.  One more night near or below freezing is being forecast IMBY tonight.  And another frost is certainly possible Friday night with lows in the mid-30's projected here. 

Considering the flooding T-Snow mentioned above heading down the Missouri & Mississippi Rivers, it's a very good thing the heavy rain here has stopped for now.  We don't need anymore runoff added to what's already heading our way.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 20, 2019, 07:13:41 AM
The equinox is at 4:58 PM CDT. Incidentally, there will also be a full moon tonight... first one to occur on the first day of spring in 19 years, for what thatís worth.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Coach B on March 20, 2019, 08:09:00 AM
Pretty good inversion this morning. I was much warmer than recent nights with a low of 33. Temp on the hill was 36 when I left but just down the road hit 25 along a lower field. Saw as low as 23 on the official obs.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 20, 2019, 08:21:13 AM
I was colder this morning than yesterday during the freeze warning. 28 yesterday, 27 today.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 11:58:18 AM
I am hoping we get a good severe weather event coming up soon to track...as long as it doesn't hurt anybody or cause property damage....I am happy if it stays in wooded fields :). But there is some kind of adrenaline I get when a big severe event is forecast and REAL super cells occur...not the crapvection we have had the past few years...It is just fascinating to watch ( again as long as nobody is harmed ).

I will never forget the gallatin tornado day in 2006 when the SPC had our area under high risk and 60% possibility of a tornado and hatched area...Have never seen that again. I took that day more serious than any severe weather event in my life
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 12:09:18 PM
I am hoping we get a good severe weather event coming up soon to track...as long as it doesn't hurt anybody or cause property damage....I am happy if it stays in wooded fields :). But there is some kind of adrenaline I get when a big severe event is forecast and REAL super cells occur...not the crapvection we have had the past few years...It is just fascinating to watch ( again as long as nobody is harmed ).

I will never forget the gallatin tornado day in 2006 when the SPC had our area under high risk and 60% possibility of a tornado and hatched area...Have never seen that again. I took that day more serious than any severe weather event in my life
yeah ... those days pretty rare ... the ole color black tornado 🌪 signator.... remember that day very well

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 12:11:44 PM
Hey I wonder if you can find the disco on that ... love to go back read that from spc .... can someone please paste if they find it ... appreciate it
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 20, 2019, 12:18:01 PM
yeah ... those days pretty rare ... the ole color black tornado 🌪 signator.... remember that day very well

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 12:11:44 PM
Hey I wonder if you can find the disco on that ... love to go back read that from spc .... can someone please paste if they find it ... appreciate it

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060407_2000.html
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 12:21:51 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060407_2000.html
thanks. Bro.... that kind wording just gives me chills....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 01:28:29 PM
thanks. Bro.... that kind wording just gives me chills....

nice to know I am not the only one who obsesses about past high risk days and things like that LOL

another one I remember is the sequences of may 2003...I recall a tornado watch like 3 days in a row here in west middle tn...I was only 17 at the time so I am a bit foggy...I believe that was the Jackson TN F4? But the fact that it was day after day of moderate to high risk right around our area was quite frightening

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 01:37:56 PM
2006 april outbreak image....what was so wild was how EARLY in the day these super cells just exploded!

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7555/2052/1600/0407ww0162_radar.0.jpg
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 02:00:43 PM
nice to know I am not the only one who obsesses about past high risk days and things like that LOL

another one I remember is the sequences of may 2003...I recall a tornado watch like 3 days in a row here in west middle tn...I was only 17 at the time so I am a bit foggy...I believe that was the Jackson TN F4? But the fact that it was day after day of moderate to high risk right around our area was quite frightening

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 01:37:56 PM
2006 april outbreak image....what was so wild was how EARLY in the day these super cells just exploded!

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7555/2052/1600/0407ww0162_radar.0.jpg
that is correct.  Sunday nite may 3 2003 ef4 just mile half from my house.... only damage I got were a couple windows knocked out by the golf ball hail it contained ....

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:03:43 PM
Think last high risk day we have had was late May 2011... that event effected mostly the Ohio valley regions think.... course 2011 was probably last true violent spring south has had ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 20, 2019, 02:38:19 PM
that is correct.  Sunday nite may 3 2003 ef4 just mile half from my house.... only damage I got were a couple windows knocked out by the golf ball hail it contained ....

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:03:43 PM
Think last high risk day we have had was late May 2011... that event effected mostly the Ohio valley regions think.... course 2011 was probably last true violent spring south has had ....

March 2012, from what I can remember, was the last HIGH. If LCLs had been lower (caused by afternoon atmospheric mixing, IIRC), this one could've been really bad.  Supercell dropped tennis balls across I-40 into Dickson/Nashville.  Wall cloud spotted in Lavergne/Antioch.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk_20120302_2000.html
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 02:52:06 PM
march 2012 was last high risk I remember that included our viewing area....theat was the Henryville Indiana tornado F4 and several others in KY and also several other ones in Ms and Alabama that day , another one of those weird scenarios where 100 miles north it was devastating and to our south they got slammed yet most of TN was spared

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:54:31 PM
sorry eric...for some reason I didn't see your post lol. Also the april 2014 outbreak is another one where morning crapvection prevented us from having a really BIG outbreak here in Tennessee....happens a lot.

Lets not forget the 2010 floods were originally a high risk pds severe weather day however it just poured and poured and poured
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 03:12:08 PM
march 2012 was last high risk I remember that included our viewing area....theat was the Henryville Indiana tornado F4 and several others in KY and also several other ones in Ms and Alabama that day , another one of those weird scenarios where 100 miles north it was devastating and to our south they got slammed yet most of TN was spared

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:54:31 PM
sorry eric...for some reason I didn't see your post lol. Also the april 2014 outbreak is another one where morning crapvection prevented us from having a really BIG outbreak here in Tennessee....happens a lot.

Lets not forget the 2010 floods were originally a high risk pds severe weather day however it just poured and poured and poured
may 2010 was the big yazoo city ms tornado 🌪....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 03:29:45 PM
may 2010 was the big yazoo city ms tornado 🌪....

that one was a biggie....Hattiesburg is another tornado that has some great video to watch.

I have a question I was under the weather for a week or two and didn't keep up with things as much as I would have liked....

the outbreak which had that large tornado in Lee county Alabama, did spc ever increase risk to moderate or did they just leave it at enhanced all day? IMO spc has had a bad spring so far and was wondering about that particular day because I didn't get to keep a track of it that day....if it was not upgraded to at least a Moderate risk then I consider that a fail on their part for that day, 40 tornadoes several ef2 , an ef3 and ef4
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 03:40:08 PM
Pretty sure it stayed enhanced.... I agree with you
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 20, 2019, 03:42:59 PM
Might have posted before but here is an awesome write up on April 2 2006.

http://www.philip-lutzak.com/weather/meteo361/project_3.htm
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 04:07:39 PM
Pretty sure it stayed enhanced.... I agree with you

again just an opinion, it leads to apathy among the casual average person when threats are not properly forecast...we all know how easy it can change through the day and understand...but the general public says "they cried wolf again" OR it gets under forecast such as the recent Alabama/Georgia outbreak then people really don't take it seriously at all.....it's hard
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 20, 2019, 04:17:01 PM
For you newcomers - and old timers that like to reminisce  - here's our thread for the April 7, 2006 event.

https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,99.210.html
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 20, 2019, 05:35:38 PM
Could be some "noteworthy" weather tomorrow.  Nothing extraordinary, but simply worthy of noticing.

Quote
Biggest concern will be the low freezing levels which should allow
for some wintry precip to mix in over mainly higher elevation areas.
There will likely even be some light snow accumulations over some of
the higher mountain peaks mainly above 4000 feet, and will continue
to mention this in the HWO. In addition, there will be some limited
convective energy available, so some stronger showers may bring some
pea size hail even in valley locations Thursday due to the low
freezing levels.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 20, 2019, 07:29:31 PM
The last High Risk was either 03/02/2012 (Northern Middle and Northeast TN), 5/25/2011 (West TN and West Middle TN) or 4/27/2011 (Southern Middle or Southeastern TN).

We are long overdue for a High Risk event as I believe we have the longest streak without a High Risk since they have been issued in the 1980s.  11/27/1994, 5/4 and 5/5/2003, 1/21/1999, 4/7/2006, and 2/5/2008 are also High Risk Days.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 20, 2019, 08:13:48 PM
I'm surprised 16 April 1998 wasn't a high risk day. That outbreak produced the only EF5 in Tennessee as well as the Nashville tornado.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: NashRugger on March 20, 2019, 08:54:43 PM
that is correct.  Sunday nite may 3 2003 ef4 just mile half from my house.... only damage I got were a couple windows knocked out by the golf ball hail it contained
And later that night, early in the morning the next day, the north side of Murfreesboro got rocked, particularly from US 231 (Memorial Blvd) along De Jarnette Ln to near the rock quarry east of Hwy 96, were hit hard by hail larger than tennis balls embedded within a very destructive downburst. I was 15 at the time at Oakland HS and all the trees were stripped and shredded on their west and north faces, while the other side of De Jarnette, trees were stripped from west and south. Homes lost all windows and have siding beaten off and roofs pecked to bits.


Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 08:56:35 PM
may 2010 was the big yazoo city ms tornado 🌪....
That tornado happened the weekend BEFORE the big flood, on April 24th.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: ChrisPC on March 21, 2019, 07:28:53 AM
I remember the Yazoo City tornado well; my wife and I grew up near there. My wifeís cousin almost drove into the tornado. She and her kids got into a brick building just in time. Unfortunately, she passed away last year after a car accident.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 21, 2019, 08:18:47 AM
I'm surprised 16 April 1998 wasn't a high risk day. That outbreak produced the only EF5 in Tennessee as well as the Nashville tornado.


it was a high risk day
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 21, 2019, 08:19:54 AM
I remember the Yazoo City tornado well; my wife and I grew up near there. My wifeís cousin almost drove into the tornado. She and her kids got into a brick building just in time. Unfortunately, she passed away last year after a car accident.

I was actually in MS when that happened with my girlfriend at the time (now wife) and a group of friends in Oxford where she is from. I remember it being warm and humid, and the sun was shining. We were somewhere with the TV on with coverage out of Memphis for the storms further south in MS. I think the Yazoo City tornado had just happened.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 21, 2019, 08:25:55 AM
The last High Risk was either 03/02/2012 (Northern Middle and Northeast TN), 5/25/2011 (West TN and West Middle TN) or 4/27/2011 (Southern Middle or Southeastern TN).

We are long overdue for a High Risk event as I believe we have the longest streak without a High Risk since they have been issued in the 1980s.  11/27/1994, 5/4 and 5/5/2003, 1/21/1999, 4/7/2006, and 2/5/2008 are also High Risk Days.

some others are 4-8-98 for southern mid tn( the Birmingham f5 (I just happened to be in B-ham that day SCARY), the Nashville tornado outbreak, 2002 veterans day outbreak and the November outbreak in 2005 are also memorable since they happened so late in the year. We have had many more high risks than people realize I think

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 21, 2019, 08:44:33 AM
SPC HIGH risk days...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 21, 2019, 08:48:26 AM
SPC HIGH risk days...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days

I think people will be surprised at how many the mid state has had....Veterans day 2002 , Nov 2005 and the 2006 outbreak are 3 that were particularly scary
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2019, 09:17:27 AM
The Sun is peeking out here, which makes the convective nature of the HRRR later this afternoon highly plausible for east TN.  No severe weather, but convective T-showers with hail are very possible.  And it would be a good day to head to the mountains, as the HRRR shows some pretty intense snow showers there later today.

Off work today, so maybe I should head up there and see what happens.  One last look at snow, in a winter I've only seen it twice.  Tempting.

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 21, 2019, 09:41:48 AM
Happy official first full day of spring everyone....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2019, 02:48:12 PM
My folks in London, KY just sent me a pick of their back deck covered in sleet.  Those showers are now moving into and through the plateau and into the valley.  The sun is out here now after the rain ended, adding to the instability, so we may see some interesting weather this evening. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on March 21, 2019, 02:52:48 PM
We've got bright sunshine here at the moment but the clouds to the north/northwest are very dark.  I agree that this could be an interesting evening to watch for weather developing,  with some potential excitement that shouldn't be connected to much if any risk of real damage.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 21, 2019, 04:03:55 PM
We have had several years where we had at least 2 High Risks per year.  This is why this 7 or 8-year drought (depending on where you are at) is quite unusual.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 21, 2019, 04:35:52 PM
Nothing wrong with a Tornado drought.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 21, 2019, 05:41:19 PM
Weather forecast for the foreseeable future looks cool to pleasantly mild... a couple of systems but nothing too gangbusters right now.

I think we should probably be okay with that.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 21, 2019, 09:02:06 PM
Weather forecast for the foreseeable future looks cool to pleasantly mild... a couple of systems but nothing too gangbusters right now.

I think we should probably be okay with that.

I am pretty cool with that.  Especially while we and areas upriver dry out.  Since I am getting on a plane next weekend it would be nice to not have too many delays or crazy turbulence.  It does look like things aren't as bad as they once appeared in the longer range (still may have one late March system to watch maybe). 

I still think the 2nd half of this spring has an above average threat for a severe weather sequence event due to the tendency at times to have SW USA troughing and our active jet stream pattern. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 22, 2019, 08:31:39 AM
We have had several years where we had at least 2 High Risks per year.  This is why this 7 or 8-year drought (depending on where you are at) is quite unusual.

agreed 100%. In our area going back to the 2011 april outbreak we had had a big rain shield a few hours before the event that prevents us from major outbreaks....it has happened so many times I cannot count....not saying it is a bad thing but just interesting that it keeps happening that way....also as I said yesterday the 2010 flood situation was a "high risk" severe day that turned into a rain shield also....quite interesting
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 22, 2019, 10:21:56 AM
agreed 100%. In our area going back to the 2011 april outbreak we had had a big rain shield a few hours before the event that prevents us from major outbreaks....it has happened so many times I cannot count....not saying it is a bad thing but just interesting that it keeps happening that way....also as I said yesterday the 2010 flood situation was a "high risk" severe day that turned into a rain shield also....quite interesting
the last really good severe outbreak I can recall that didnít have rain sheiild most day was the Super Tuesday event ... late that afternoon we had a really nice dry punch break through ... before the action began... the air really got un stable quick that evening
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 22, 2019, 11:30:22 AM
the last really good severe outbreak I can recall that didnít have rain sheiild most day was the Super Tuesday event ... late that afternoon we had a really nice dry punch break through ... before the action began... the air really got un stable quick that evening

that one long track supercell that went from MS to KY fropped f2 damage 3 miles from me....you could hear it just over the hills here in lewis county

But just think april 2011....april 2014 were both potential disasters that we were spared from because of early morning/afternoon rains
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 22, 2019, 11:40:26 AM
that one long track supercell that went from MS to KY fropped f2 damage 3 miles from me....you could hear it just over the hills here in lewis county

But just think april 2011....april 2014 were both potential disasters that we were spared from because of early morning/afternoon rains
it was a mcs came through late night early morning that screwed up the super 1974 outbreak for west Tennessee and east Arkansas ... but it set up outflow boundaries across middle and eastern Tennessee for a terrible situation we all know of course
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 23, 2019, 02:51:58 PM
Desert air has invaded east TN today with dewpoints in the teens.  Relative humidity is down to 10-15% with temps in the low 60's.  The atmosphere doesn't get much drier in these parts. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on March 24, 2019, 07:53:01 PM
Severe storms are firing up in MO and AR
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 24, 2019, 08:07:12 PM
I donít expect much around here. The DPs dropped down to 48 here this afternoon. Currently at 51. HRR continues to have a cluster of storms coming through around Memphis and north Mississippi
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 09:34:56 AM
Storms toppled the NBC production set of Bluff City Law overnight in downtown Memphis. Given the ďcoolĒ conditions I surprised at how fierce they got in the metro last night.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 09:36:27 AM
On to another topic....looks like the AMO might be finally flipping to negative. Itís been positive since 1996 and usually flips every 20-25 years. If its sustainable, it has lots of implications on climate over the next 2 decades.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on March 25, 2019, 09:54:32 AM
(https://media.tenor.com/images/3f11da33a1724b320fa7e24ad20b460b/tenor.gif)

Out of curiosity.  I know a negative AMO typically reduces the number of major tropical systems you have in a year, but what is its effects on Severe weather?

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 25, 2019, 11:13:48 AM
On to another topic....looks like the AMO might be finally flipping to negative. Itís been positive since 1996 and usually flips every 20-25 years. If its sustainable, it has lots of implications on climate over the next 2 decades.
we already gotten a situation thatís causing  implications on our climate....  itís called global warming ... thatís bad enough.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2019, 02:48:57 PM
On to another topic....looks like the AMO might be finally flipping to negative. Itís been positive since 1996 and usually flips every 20-25 years. If its sustainable, it has lots of implications on climate over the next 2 decades.

Now flip it!  Flip it good! 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 03:12:23 PM
we already gotten a situation thatís causing  implications on our climate....  itís called global warming ... thatís bad enough.

Really just intending to bring up the sensible effects of the AMO- not bring global warming or politics into play here. This is something that can be measured however.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/d7b4d1b733d445948e16941e6ea7dc99.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/1f3adc585c471242626f0195f8bbce64.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JHart on March 25, 2019, 05:11:20 PM
Now flip it!  Flip it good!

Well, thank you very much.  Now that's stuck in my head.  ::whistling::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Drifter49 on March 25, 2019, 05:13:43 PM
Now flip it!  Flip it good!




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 25, 2019, 05:28:33 PM



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
i hated that band with passion... wasnít my type music back then lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2019, 06:10:55 PM
Really just intending to bring up the sensible effects of the AMO- not bring global warming or politics into play here. This is something that can be measured however.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/d7b4d1b733d445948e16941e6ea7dc99.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/1f3adc585c471242626f0195f8bbce64.jpg)

Well just means no severe wx at all Bruce and either cold rains or cold and dry for the winters😂

#welcometotennessee
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Drifter49 on March 25, 2019, 06:31:55 PM
i hated that band with passion... wasnít my type music back then lol

Ah more of a culture club guy


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 06:48:14 PM
Well just means no severe wx at all Bruce and either cold rains or cold and dry for the winters

#welcometotennessee

Negative AMO plus a negative PDO have displayed the coldest and snowiest periods for Tennessee by a long shot ie Ď60-Ď96. Yes- they are drier, but as Storm59 has mentioned....cold dry winters usually mean precip has a better shot at being wintry. Iím waiting on the full switch to a negative AMO before making any conclusions on where climate is headed.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Drifter49 on March 25, 2019, 06:49:54 PM
Negative AMO plus a negative PDO have displayed the coldest and snowiest periods for Tennessee by a long shot ie Ď60-Ď96. Yes- they are drier, but as Storm59 has mentioned....cold dry winters usually mean precip has w better shot at being wintry. Iím waiting on the full switch to a negative AMO before making any conclusions on where climate is headed.
I definitely could use some 70ís and 80ís winters. Especially 70ís.


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Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2019, 07:16:26 PM
i hated that band with passion... wasnít my type music back then lol

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Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on March 25, 2019, 08:53:01 PM
WxSouth just mentioned a "significant weather event" for the southeast early next week. Not sure exactly what he's referencing there. A Gulf Low does appear to form early next week and move northeast but don't really see a severe threat right now.