Post by: Thundersnow on February 24, 2019, 02:51:13 PM
Kinda hoping for a dry stretch at some point.
(No particular reason to put this in the Severe forum, other than that’s where we traditionally put the spring thread.)
Post by: Uncle Nasty on February 24, 2019, 03:38:46 PM
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Post by: WXHD on February 24, 2019, 07:14:45 PM
Post by: JayCee on February 25, 2019, 02:40:16 PM
One thing I highly recommend for the coming spring is mosquito repellent. They'll be feasting on us this year.
Post by: BRUCE on February 25, 2019, 02:56:41 PM
March into early April ... looks active stormy ...
Post by: StormNine on February 25, 2019, 04:22:21 PM
Looks like the CFS model. Mid to long range toolsniff patterns is firing severe wx second half
March into early April ... looks active stormy ...
If there is a -PNA I might score a winter threat during the 5 or so days I am in Utah right at the end of March/beginning of April.
Post by: Beth on February 26, 2019, 02:30:49 PM
Post by: JayCee on February 26, 2019, 02:36:59 PM
I am staying in this thread! Staying away from the winter one! I want this weather today till summer arrives. Please, no more snow and no more rain! 😎😎😎😎😎
Probably the sanest choice. The winter thread will make you go cray cray. ::cliff::
Post by: BRUCE on February 26, 2019, 06:44:30 PM
Post Merge: February 26, 2019, 07:59:06 PM
Accuweather predicting 525 tornadoes 🌪 from first March to the end may this spring ...I know. Accuweather ... lol
Post by: Crockett on February 26, 2019, 10:07:16 PM
That post was made days ago... when gfs was showing a threat .... course it has changed big time since .... lol
Post Merge: February 26, 2019, 07:59:06 PM
Accuweather predicting 525 tornadoes 🌪 from first March to the end may this spring ...I know. Accuweather ... lol
How in the name of fuh can Accuweather even make a prediction about the number of tornadoes with a straight face? Just another reason why friends don't let their weather un-savvy friends download the Accuweather app.
Post by: schneitzeit on February 26, 2019, 10:12:19 PM
Post by: StormNine on February 27, 2019, 04:36:11 AM
https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-03-27-april-may-june-tornadoes-peak-months
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2019, 05:21:02 AM
525 tornadoes in the USA during that timeframe is actually pretty close to average. It sounds like a lot but it is pretty much a more hyped way of saying an average spring severe weather season. Our March-May average in the USA is 537.guess. We have been way below average last 3 years or so ... overall thinking is uptick to more threats this spring ... I’m liking the mid to late March pattern coming ... looking out long range stuff... guess this should been put in spring thread ... my bad. Lol
https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-03-27-april-may-june-tornadoes-peak-months
Post by: Charles L. on February 27, 2019, 05:52:23 AM
https://t.co/NVhYvqXc7k
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2019, 06:32:53 AM
It may or may not snow in the next 5-7 days. But the Euro, CMC, and GFS all say next week is gonna be brutally cold for this time of year. Anywhere from 15-25 degrees below average. Lows on a couple models approach single digits next Wed/Thurs. Highs near freezing. Brrrrrr!!!!!yeah without doubt at all cold is coming ..and pretty impressive for this time year ... but theme this winter appears when cold here she dries up ... guess it’s good thing since we’re dealing with river flooding etc... be nice sneak a winter event in last second .... though I’m ready for spring....
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Post by: JayCee on February 27, 2019, 06:47:30 AM
After a very mild winter with flooding rains, we're in for a bad biting bug summer. We may need something like this just to survive it:
https://www.amazon.com/Mosquito-Repellant-Netting-Insects-Activities/dp/B07FNRBJRZ/ref=asc_df_B07FNRBJRZ/?tag=bingshoppinga-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid={creative}&hvpos={adposition}&hvnetw=o&hvrand={random}&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=e&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl={devicemodel}&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=&hvtargid=pla-4584482455164448&psc=1 (https://www.amazon.com/Mosquito-Repellant-Netting-Insects-Activities/dp/B07FNRBJRZ/ref=asc_df_B07FNRBJRZ/?tag=bingshoppinga-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid={creative}&hvpos={adposition}&hvnetw=o&hvrand={random}&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=e&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl={devicemodel}&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=&hvtargid=pla-4584482455164448&psc=1)
Post by: schneitzeit on February 27, 2019, 10:57:36 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2019, 06:03:16 AM
FWIW, the SPC is highlighting an area of potential severe weather risk on Day 4 or Sunday... mainly south of TN.
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day4prob_20190228_1200.gif)
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2019, 06:18:23 AM
FWIW, the SPC is highlighting an area of potential severe weather risk on Day 4 or Sunday... mainly south of TN.this threat has kept creeping north each model run... potential dangerous day for centeral Alabama and Georgia and further south.. cape along that area 2000jewles ...another big system have eye on next weekend ...for severe wx and heavy rain...
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day4prob_20190228_1200.gif)
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2019, 08:13:34 AM
Post by: Flash on February 28, 2019, 08:59:15 AM
Post by: JayCee on February 28, 2019, 10:08:48 AM
Post by: dwagner88 on March 01, 2019, 06:40:44 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2019, 08:18:32 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2019, 08:21:53 AM
Post by: Eric on March 01, 2019, 08:22:30 AM
Sunday's risk has been suppressed further south, really central MS/AL to the coast.
Was just fixing to post this. ::coffee:: ::coffee::
Post by: cgauxknox on March 01, 2019, 08:30:51 AM
We are having downpours of heavy rain over here in the foothills. Seems to be much heavier than what the models were showing.Same for the valley this morning and we had more than they expected yesterday as well. Things have mostly cleared from last weekend but I have to wonder how much it will really take on Sunday to re-flood some of the most vulnerable places.
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2019, 05:19:06 PM
Edit: Actually, I forgot what I poured out this morning, so .93 was the total for the whole event.
Post by: collinsk on March 01, 2019, 08:36:31 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2019, 07:24:44 AM
I have a feeling we're not done with the flooding yet.
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2019, 01:13:20 PM
Post by: StormNine on March 02, 2019, 01:31:00 PM
One negative will be we could see too many storm systems and not have enough time for sufficient moisture return between them, but as we go into Late April and May that could spell a sequence event.
I do think we are not done with flooding yet either, unfortunately.
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2019, 02:13:45 PM
Not to get Bruce too excited but if we can keep the -PNA then I think we will have an above average severe weather season both locally and nationally. Remember we have an active subtropical jet and a warmer than average Gulf of Mexico/west Atlantic. If the PNA shots up to the + side then our chances of an active severe weather season do take a hit.yeah like we’re we heading ... for both eyes on it
One negative will be we could see too many storm systems and not have enough time for sufficient moisture return between them, but as we go into Late April and May that could spell a sequence event.
I do think we are not done with flooding yet either, unfortunately.
Post by: gcbama on March 02, 2019, 04:02:20 PM
12z euro. Spells trouble brewing next weekend ...agreed .....bruce you and i have both said for a few weeks that this will be a very active severe season....i still stand by it
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2019, 11:14:29 AM
We're having another day of moderate rain, and will probably see an inch or so here. Another round of possible heavy rain will occur next weekend. At this rate, flooding will last deep into spring.
Post by: dwagner88 on March 03, 2019, 01:26:19 PM
Post by: cliftown04 on March 03, 2019, 01:39:21 PM
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2019, 01:45:03 PM
Post by: wfrogge on March 03, 2019, 03:00:19 PM
Both gfs and euro painting a wicked severe threat next weekend ... pretty remarkable how fast we recover from couple days of very cold temps ... gfs painting some 2000 cape over large portion midsouth ... something to watch closely as we draw near the next weekend
Good thing ill be in Orlando :(
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2019, 03:29:42 PM
It just thrills me to report that the GFS is showing another long duration heavy rain event Fri-Sun. It also dramatically underestimated rainfall for today’s system.
Approaching an inch and a half here, and it's still pouring.
Post by: justinmundie on March 04, 2019, 06:20:43 AM
Post by: dwagner88 on March 04, 2019, 08:32:05 AM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 08:48:53 AM
Fun fact: if it continues to rain at the same rate that it has year to date, KCHA will get 128.82" of rain this year. ::drowning::
Yuck
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2019, 09:05:08 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2019, 09:23:32 AM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 09:35:21 AM
After yesterday. Severe wx can move on. Very sad so many hurt or killed from the tornadoes.
Too many lives cut short yesterday.
Increase awareness, increase awareness, increase awareness.
A possible benefit of my generation's addiction to smartphones is warning systems are much more penetrable. Sadly, many older folks don't know these storms are coming unless they have the TV on or a family member or friend called.
Post by: BRUCE on March 04, 2019, 10:40:19 AM
Post by: NismoWx on March 04, 2019, 11:37:40 AM
Too many lives cut short yesterday.The problem with that is that the general public has become immune to the warnings. They don't take them seriously because they are so used to forecasts busting. Then they want to claim that they had no warning, when the SPC has been highlighting that for at least 4 days prior.
Increase awareness, increase awareness, increase awareness.
A possible benefit of my generation's addiction to smartphones is warning systems are much more penetrable. Sadly, many older folks don't know these storms are coming unless they have the TV on or a family member or friend called.
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 12:22:20 PM
Post by: NismoWx on March 04, 2019, 01:32:11 PM
Very true. A major issue is that many people assume the cell must be in a different part of the county if a warning is issued. For example: a storm going over Fairview tracking NW to Davidson County will sound off the sirens all over Williamson County, even though only a tiny sliver of Williamson is under a threat of a tornado. People hear the sirens so often they become immune to them, like you said. When you've heard the sirens go off 50 times during tornado outbreaks and not one tornado has ever hit you, you're apt to brush it off.Part of the polygon problem is that nobody knows where they are anymore without a GPS, especially the generation we're rearing now. That's why James Spann is so effective in the Birmingham market... He knows where EVERYTHING is, and can relate that to the public. That's something the NWS will never be able to duplicate, so it's up to the broadcast Mets to do it. Nashville doesn't have anyone qualified to do that since Bill Hall (may he rest in peace!) and Lisa Patton retired.
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Post by: Eric on March 04, 2019, 03:06:55 PM
Part of the polygon problem is that nobody knows where they are anymore without a GPS, especially the generation we're rearing now. That's why James Spann is so effective in the Birmingham market... He knows where EVERYTHING is, and can relate that to the public. That's something the NWS will never be able to duplicate, so it's up to the broadcast Mets to do it. Nashville doesn't have anyone qualified to do that since Bill Hall (may he rest in peace!) and Lisa Patton retired.
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
That's why the Mets in Nashville need to get down to street-level with their coverage. Some do, but don't do it often/well enough to be effective. Our social media message has and always will be hyper-local weather info your area, but as social-mediasts, we can only do so much. I think Bree Smith mentioned Nashville serving a 66-county area and I can guarantee they don't know all the hollows and bluffs across they area. If the person receiving the info doesn't know where the area, then that's a them problem and not a "you" problem.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 04, 2019, 05:21:41 PM
Post by: NismoWx on March 04, 2019, 05:28:53 PM
That's why the Mets in Nashville need to get down to street-level with their coverage. Some do, but don't do it often/well enough to be effective. Our social media message has and always will be hyper-local weather info your area, but as social-mediasts, we can only do so much. I think Bree Smith mentioned Nashville serving a 66-county area and I can guarantee they don't know all the hollows and bluffs across they area. If the person receiving the info doesn't know where the area, then that's a them problem and not a "you" problem.Absolutely. At some point, they have to learn personal responsibility and accountability. Part of me is like, okay Darwinism at its finest, but the part of me that spent 10yrs in Fire/EMS trying to SAVE lives has a bigger grasp of my heart. At least I can say I tried.
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Post by: mamMATTus on March 04, 2019, 07:06:37 PM
Post by: Beth on March 04, 2019, 08:33:29 PM
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2019, 10:47:16 PM
Not thrilled with Saturday's threat looking nocturnal.
I think it’s just going to be a rain event. Models backing off any severe.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 10:59:52 PM
I think it’s just going to be a rain event. Models backing off any severe.We won't be getting any severe WX in Knoxville, but areas a few hundred miles south and west of us may. What models have you looked at that indicate they are backing off from the severe threat? I haven't seen any indication of this
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 05:35:45 AM
I think it’s just going to be a rain event. Models backing off any severe.last nights 0z euro actually ramped up the threat for severe wx late Saturday ...
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2019, 05:49:54 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day5prob_20190305_1200.gif)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2019, 08:14:55 AM
Quote
Greater severe risk may
therefore remain farther south, from east Texas/Louisiana across the
Lower Mississippi Valley region, and possibly into the central Gulf
Coast states late.
Euro equally not impressive for TN, specifically. But QLCS spinups always know how to ruin the party.
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 02:52:54 PM
Severe threat, at least for TN, looks minimal. There may be a strong storm or two, given the insane amount of wind shear the GFS is predicting (over 1200 m2s2 along the Tn River :o :o :o ). Can't rule out the possibility of a few QLCS spinups. Greatest shot at anything severe may be along the same areas that got hit this past weekend. SPC even alluded to it...12z euro says. If this system fail for severe weather here... we got another chance after this system ... looks ha e much much better warm sector ....
Euro equally not impressive for TN, specifically. But QLCS spinups always know how to ruin the party.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 05, 2019, 02:59:54 PM
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 03:04:19 PM
No offense, Bruce, but you are always saying there is a severe threat whenever any weekend is coming up.going by models dude... seriously ...I’m not making this up....lol
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2019, 03:29:35 PM
going by models dude... seriously ...I’m not making this up....lol
What day you looking at? 12z Euro goes out to next Friday and I'm having a hard time picking up on anything worth noting outside the TN Valley.
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 03:34:33 PM
What day you looking at? 12z Euro goes out to next Friday and I'm having a hard time picking up on anything worth noting outside the TN Valley.192 hr moving from west ...
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2019, 03:40:23 PM
12z GFS ain't having any of it, by the way.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 05, 2019, 04:16:30 PM
The GFS lights up the East TN Valley pretty well, which is kind of rare this early in the season. Temperatures will be on the lower side (high 50s-low 60s) but I wouldn't rule out the chance of strong thunderstorms. I expect intense rainfall and high winds in Knoxville when this reaches us.
What is the look for the rest of the South?
Post Merge: March 05, 2019, 04:18:56 PM
Any input from our Memphis posters on this weekend's possible severe outbreak would be appreciated. I have friends there who always ask me about severe weather threats, but I've been busy this week and haven't been watching the models like I normally do
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2019, 07:06:05 PM
Quote
Getting into the day Saturday, by 12Z, the upper trough axis
looks to be over the high Plains, and will quickly surge eastward
and develop a negative tilt as the axis is along the MO River
Valley by 00Z Sunday. This will keep the southeast with strong
southerly flow, especially in the low levels, and allow for
strong WAA and moisture advection bringing dewpoints into the
upper 50s across the area. Soundings show very strong shear, with
0-6km shear values around 50 to even 80 knots depending on which
model you choose. The instability is a bit on the low side,
however enough MUCAPE and especially shear values exist,
with the best area currently west of I-65. Low level helicity
values are also strong, and 0-1km shear is 40 knots or higher
between the models as well. With all of the shear present,
especially in the low levels, will definitely need to keep an eye
on the evolution of this system for late Saturday afternoon
through early Sunday morning for severe thunderstorm potential.
Models have been pretty consistent on timing so far, so when short
term models get to be within range, there will be more solutions
to contribute to confidence on storm potential and timing.
Not to mention hinting at another system next week...
Quote
Models diverge a bit on
solutions for Monday and Tuesday, however the GFS and ECMWF have
been pretty consistent showing another strong trough and
associated cold front for Wednesday/Wednesday night, which has the
potential to be another severe weather threat. But, that`s still
way out towards the end of the model runs, so a lot can change
over the coming week in regards to the evolution of next week`s
system.
Post by: WXHD on March 05, 2019, 08:32:36 PM
Post by: wfrogge on March 05, 2019, 08:41:15 PM
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 09:15:03 PM
Not sure what some of you are looking at but that’s ok. Negative tilt trof and a screaming low level jet to me are spelling possible trouble for the western part of the state. Yeah things could change but we can’t forecast based on that can we?I give up.... im just glad were heading toward a active severe spring finally
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2019, 09:31:18 PM
Bruce called the event two weeks ago and, I’m inclined to listen to him this time too.
How did that one work out for Tennessee?
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 10:06:49 PM
How did that one work out for Tennessee?sad...your area was quite. But my area had tornado warning plus other storms with rotation
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2019, 10:36:53 PM
sad...your area was quite. But my area had tornado warning plus other storms with rotation
Okay, let me rephrase. How did it perform relative to the hype?
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2019, 10:40:52 PM
I give up.... im just glad were heading toward a active severe spring finally
After a couple of buckles of brief warm air, this pattern goes right back to where it is now on both GEFS and EPS. Granted 15 degrees below normal looks different in mid to late March than now... but the overall pattern wants to migrate back to a central trough.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 05, 2019, 10:55:39 PM
[attachimg=1]
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2019, 11:28:38 PM
Bruce called the event two weeks ago and, I’m inclined to listen to him this time too.
Hardly but listen your heart out. Its going to rain in the next 20 days, watch and see....
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2019, 07:42:16 AM
Quote
In the meantime, widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to expand across a large area from eastern portions of the central
and southern Plains early Day 4, eastward/northeastward across the
Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through
Sunday morning. Given the strength of this system, and the
accompanying/strong kinematic field, risk for at least isolated
severe storms remains evident -- including potential for damaging
winds and some tornado risk. However, a primary limiting factor
appears likely to be limited CAPE (in part due to the widespread
convective development). As such, will maintain only 15% risk at
this time, though strength of this system and accompanying
deep-layer wind field warrants attention in future outlooks.
OHX:
Quote
As for the potential of strong to svr tstms Sat afternoon into
Sat night, latest SPC reasoning has almost all of mid state
expect Upper Cumberland Region in a 15% svr wx outlook for
this time period. Forecasted CAPE values presently will
potentially be a limiting factor, but given the strength of this
system, it is certainly not out of the question that some strong
tstms to a few svr tstms could be possible. Will highlight this
possibility in the morning HWO issuance. Again, this potential
system the result of a strong sfc low developing across the cntrl
plains by Sat morning with a sfc frontal system draped across the
deep south. This strong sfc low will move quickly into the cntrl
Great Lakes Region by Sun morning, dragging a strong cold front
across the mid state region. A negatively tilted significant upper
level trough will develop across the cntrl U.S in association
with a strong upper level low pressure system across the northern
plains supporting pronounced swly upper level flow. This upper
level low will become stacked vertically quite close to the sfc
low by Sun morning also, moving that pronounced upper level
troughing right across the mid state region too. This type of
synoptic setup generally brings at least an organized line of
tstms thru the mid state region.
BMX:
Quote
A more significant trough is expected to move across the
Intermountain West & eject into the Plains on Saturday. Given
ongoing return flow across the Southern Plains & lower Mississippi
River Valley (MRV), the more amplified trough will quickly establish
downstream height rises as theta-e advection ramps up along an
intensifying low-level jet (LLJ) west of the MRV. As a result, a
broad area of convective weather is expected to develop to our west
near the ArkLaTex & quickly move eastward as a transient shortwave
rotates around the primary trough axis undergoing negative tilt.
Thereafter, the ongoing thunderstorm activity is expected to move
along an associated surface front & LLJ axis & enter the western
portions of our forecast area as early as late Saturday afternoon.
Given the forecast intensity of the LLJ (40-60 kts at 850mb),
increased moisture & instability availability, as well westerly deep-
layer shear vectors of ~40-60 kts, any complex of thunderstorms will
maintain possible severe characteristics as they quickly move
eastward. Despite losing diabatic heating, overnight SBCAPE values
of 250-750 J/kg will be plenty considering the large scale deep-
layer forcing & ample kinetic wind energy with this system.
Therefore, will continue to advertise a Slight Risk across the
entire CWA as damaging winds & tornadoes are possible given forecast
hodograph curvatures & 0-3 km SRH values as high as 450-600 m2/s2.
Felt this was the plan of action for now & will be able to fine-tune
the severe risk area as we get closer to the event. Timing will
still be generally advertised as Saturday & Saturday night (&
possibly into Sunday morning), though changes to this will be
sharpened in that coming days also.
JAN:
Quote
Confidence continues to increase that a least a portion of the Lower
MS River Valley will be impacted by severe weather on Saturday as a
powerful storm system swings across the country. An upper trough
will cross the Rockies Friday night, becoming closed and negatively
tilted as it begins to approach the MS River Valley on Saturday.
Southerly flow will further increase across our region ahead of this
feature, pulling more moist, unstable air into the region from the
tropics. Although the region will remain removed from the main
surface low and the better upper level height falls, there should
still be enough forcing, especially in the north, to support severe
weather. Impressive 0-6 km shear values ranging between 50-70 kts
and MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 j/kg will help support a severe
weather risk further south into the ArkLaMiss. Looking at the latest
CIPs Analog guidance, each of the top 8 analogs for Saturday support
severe weather in or near our region. The main threats to our region
on Saturday will be damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. These threats
will be advertised by a slight risk in our latest HWO.
Meh. Not impressed. Again, there will undoubtedly be some warnings along the line due to the amount of wind shear that'll be bantering about. Given the 2-3" of additional rainfall, downed trees may become an issue. ::coffee::
Post by: JayCee on March 06, 2019, 08:33:18 AM
0Z GFS at the end of its run has a '93 Superstorm rerun... ::rofl::
(Attachment Link)
I looked back at that run. Wow, that really was almost a carbon-copy of that event. It disappeared this morning. . .
Post by: BRUCE on March 06, 2019, 09:10:42 AM
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2019, 10:28:26 AM
12znam coming in hot... ::coffee::
If the warm sector can establish itself before crapvection overtakes it, there could be an improved parameter space W of the TN River. Still not seeing an established TOR threat, though. See what the NAM3 does with it later tonight.
Post by: mamMATTus on March 06, 2019, 11:53:52 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 06, 2019, 01:54:05 PM
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2019, 08:45:35 PM
For now, I am thinking a weakening QLCS with some severe threat with the worst of the threat centered in Southern Arkansas, but if the NAM were to verify we would be facing a greater magnitude threat. Still got plenty of time to watch it.
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 07:03:36 AM
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 07:15:19 AM
Post by: dwagner88 on March 07, 2019, 07:42:13 AM
No end in sight of the wet times according to the 6Z GFS. It puts most of middle and east TN in the bulls-eye of additional heavy rainfall with more than 5" possible over the next 10 days.00Z Euro has 4-5" here just by Monday morning. I didn't go any further than that.
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 08:05:24 AM
00Z Euro has 4-5" here just by Monday morning. I didn't go any further than that.
I don't think I can remember such a long, extremely wet pattern as this one has been. It actually started after our mini-drought ended in early 2017. We've had two wet summers back to back ('17 & '18), and since October we've been consistently well-above normal in rainfall. At some point, the pendulum has to swing back the other way, but I don't see that happening anytime soon. Hopefully, it won't swing as far to dry as we've been wet, or we'll have two+ years of extreme drought.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 07, 2019, 08:29:17 AM
Cold weather keeps us safe from precip these days. When it turns colder, that's a guarantee to halt the wet pattern. (tic)
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 08:35:58 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 10:46:17 AM
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 12:20:34 PM
Post by: StormNine on March 07, 2019, 12:29:39 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 01:42:40 PM
That middle of the week system looks to be quite the concerning flood/severe weather double threat.
Very much so. Low pressure heads off into the Great Lakes, leaving the cold front to stall right over the middle of TN with a southwest flow paralleling the front. Looks like waves of very heavy rain and strong storms for multiple days. Scary, considering how high the lakes and rivers are now, and our saturated ground. Recipe for disaster.
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 01:47:13 PM
Post Merge: March 07, 2019, 03:03:45 PM
Interesting afd from Little Rock disscusion just updated. ... tried pasting main part ... but didn’t work lol
Post by: memphishogfan on March 07, 2019, 03:28:06 PM
(https://i1.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2019030712_057_35.79--90.18.png)
Now back to reality that this won't happen and it will be 58 and rain saturday here in NEA.
Post Merge: March 07, 2019, 03:36:22 PM
I do find it funny that the models had that exact look for my area 3 days out two weeks ago. Ended up being nothing close to that.
Post by: justinmundie on March 07, 2019, 05:32:37 PM
System mid next week looking like a multiple day severe outbreak potential for sure ...
Post Merge: March 07, 2019, 03:03:45 PM
Interesting afd from Little Rock disscusion just updated. ... tried pasting main part ... but didn’t work lol
That’s what it looks like to me as well, especially down in central ms and Alabama. Broad trough with multiple pieces of energy rounding the base and a solid warm sector.
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 05:43:33 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2019, 04:19:06 AM
Post by: Curt on March 08, 2019, 07:06:00 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1552040278306)
Meg has a great handle on this- very conditional. Shear is plentiful- instability may not line up with with best dynamics. Could be explosive discrete development in the enhanced areas- or maybe nothing at all. Maybe today will shed more light with instability recovery.
Post by: dwagner88 on March 08, 2019, 07:31:31 AM
EDIT: above amounts are only for this weekend. All models agree on even more heavy rain next week.
Post by: Flash on March 08, 2019, 07:36:38 AM
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 08:11:07 AM
Meg has a great handle on this- very conditional. Shear is plentiful- instability may not line up with with best dynamics. Could be explosive discrete development in the enhanced areas- or maybe nothing at all. Maybe today will shed more light with instability recovery.
Evidenced perfectly by the CIPS analogs. Some have severe reports, others have squadoosh.
(http://i67.tinypic.com/29wwmzk.png)
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 11:41:45 AM
Post by: Curt on March 08, 2019, 11:43:15 AM
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 11:43:38 AM
Enhanced risk got expanded north....
(http://i65.tinypic.com/2u7t5zc.jpg)
Quote
...Eastern OK/TX into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys...
Complicated forecast scenario exists for Saturday morning into
afternoon across the region. An intense shortwave trough located
over the southern Plains Saturday morning will quickly eject
northeast toward the mid-MS Valley region by 00z. As this occurs,
subsidence on the back side of the wave and midlevel dry-slot will
move over portions of the lower MS Valley region, perhaps limiting
convective development from midday into the afternoon. Additionally,
stronger forcing for ascent will quickly shift northeast toward the
mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys by midday. Additionally, widespread showers
and thunderstorms, will be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across much of the warm sector. Some strong to severe storms are
possible early from far eastern OK/TX, spreading east/northeast
through the morning. As such, several flies in the ointment exist
regarding where the greater severe threat will materialize.
Given expected ongoing convection and widespread cloud cover across
the warm sector, destabilization will be limited to generally 1000
J/kg or less, with the axis of greatest instability expected from
late morning into early afternoon across the MS River Delta region
of eastern AR into far northwest MS/western TN and the MO
Bootheel/far western KY vicinity, and the Enhanced risk area has
been focused in this corridor. With the shortwave expected to
quickly eject northeastward, stronger forcing for ascent is expected
to exist further north than previously forecast. As such, a more
isolated to widely scattered severe threat is expected across much
of east TX into MS, and severe probs have been shifted northward to
reflect this.
Guidance continues to suggest a couple of waves of severe storms are
possible. The initial morning convection associated with the strong
low level jet and warm advection regime is expected to move across
much of the lower MS Valley by midday. Guidance then suggests
another round of convection will develop along the cold front during
the afternoon from southern MO into northern AR, and perhaps more
isolated development further south into northern AR and central MS.
This semi-discrete convection will have the potential for damaging
winds, hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon hours. Some
upscale growth into bowing line segments is expected with eastward
extent into the lower OH and TN Valley late in the afternoon and
evening hours.
Sounds much more like a response to data suggesting a damaging wind threat than anything else. Have to watch anything that barks ahead of the main line across MS.
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 11:50:45 AM
Post by: StormNine on March 08, 2019, 01:24:14 PM
Quote
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 10% - Enhanced
Wind: 30% - Enhanced
Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced
That is the one for tomorrow's event. This provides more insight into what the SPC is thinking about when it comes to hazards.
Post by: memphishogfan on March 08, 2019, 02:24:53 PM
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 03:28:26 PM
Quote
Location of the upper low has moved further southeast slightly,
but models have it a bit weaker as well. The trough will still be
largely negatively tilted by 00Z Sunday, with the axis over the
northern MS River Valley in the upper Midwest. The 850 mb LLJ
remains strong, with 50-70 knots out of the SSW ahead of the main
band of showers and thunderstorms. Severe parameters have not
changed much from previous runs except for the MUCAPE values have
decreased slightly as you go east of I-65. SPC has backed up the
slight risk to the west, however, it still remains for the I-65
corridor and west for tomorrow. Instability does fall off rapidly
after 00Z, so the severe threat may be limited to just a few hours
after sunset. Wind shear remains strong, both for 0-6km deep
layer shear at 50-80 knots and 0-1 km shear 40 to 50 knots. 0-3km
helicity is holding at 300-600 m2/s2, and evident in hodographs
per model soundings showing strong curvature in the low levels.
The main threats remain damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, some
hail, and flash flooding with any heavy rain during short time
periods.
Concerns/limitations for this event remain in place as mentioned
in yesterday's discussion. First, there may be 2 main bands of
showers and thunderstorms suggested by some CAM guidance, with
the question of how much of the atmosphere will be worked over by
the first round and limiting the second round. Morning showers
before the better instability moves in during the afternoon may
work over the area a bit, and could decrease the coverage of
strong to severe thunderstorms. Second, many soundings show a
stable shallow boundary layer, which may result in elevated
instability and may decrease the overall severe threat. Storms
that are rooted with surface instability will have much higher
chances for stronger winds reaching the surface, as well as the
potential for tornadic development. However, with the strong shear
in place, strong LLJ, and decent instability during the afternoon
and evening, both rounds of showers and thunderstorms will have
the potential for severe thunderstorms before the environment
weakens later in the evening.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2019, 04:11:56 PM
Quote
As the warm front surges north by 15Z. A second round of
thunderstorm activity will begin to push in from the west ahead of
a pre-frontal trof. This activity will quickly push east into
Middle Tennessee by midday as a third round of thunderstorm
activity will develop along the cold front. This activity will
push across the CWA during the late afternoon into the early
afternoon hours. This third round of activity is the one of most
concern as it will occur with the best instability. There have
been concerns that the potent shortwave would lift off to the
northeast before this convection would develop. The latest 18Z NAM
shows that the shortwave will be passing through the region just
as these thunderstorms will be developing. The Enhanced Risk has
been pushed to the north to align with the stronger forcing for
ascent than the previous DAY 2 issued early this morning. Greatest area
of concern for severe thunderstorms with the possibility of
tornadoes will be across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel
into Northwest Tennessee. South of this area, there remains
questions on how far removed from the forcing will the
thunderstorms still be able to become severe. The 12Z NSSL WRF
and 12Z HRRR show a vigorous line tracking across North
Mississippi while other CAM models show limited development south
of Interstate 40. Thus a lot of questions remain about tomorrow
and a lot it just comes down to timing of the shortwave. Stay
tuned for forecasts updates with the latest information.
Post by: dwagner88 on March 08, 2019, 04:25:36 PM
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 06:13:39 PM
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 06:20:58 PM
Each run of the hrrr is looking more almarming for tomorrow . Here done great job in the event last weekend ...
For once, I'd love for you to give specifics and not abstract postings. Not everyone has the time to look at the model sites. I know I don't.
Post by: Curt on March 08, 2019, 06:23:21 PM
For once, I'd love for you to give specifics and not abstract postings. Not everyone has the time to look at the model sites. I know I don't.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/a1eb95c164d3a7343ad72f42e53ea1d8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/ccaccd5af41ce2f5c82dc64e54eda96e.jpg)
That’s the extended HRR- and we know it can be fickle. Simulated radar tomorrow afternoon plus cape. It hasn’t even hit the short term more reliable HRR yet
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 06:27:58 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/a1eb95c164d3a7343ad72f42e53ea1d8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/ccaccd5af41ce2f5c82dc64e54eda96e.jpg)
That’s the extended HRR- and we know it can be fickle. Simulated radar tomorrow afternoon plus cape. It hasn’t even hit the short term more reliable HRR yet
Verbatim, I'd be concerned with those "tail end Charlie's". The embedded convection doesn't concern me too much.
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 06:29:18 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/a1eb95c164d3a7343ad72f42e53ea1d8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/ccaccd5af41ce2f5c82dc64e54eda96e.jpg)thanks. Helping me curt. Couldn’t post image ... dang it
That’s the extended HRR- and we know it can be fickle. Simulated radar tomorrow afternoon plus cape. It hasn’t even hit the short term more reliable HRR yet
Post by: StormNine on March 08, 2019, 06:34:14 PM
Post by: gcbama on March 08, 2019, 08:15:03 PM
Post Merge: March 08, 2019, 08:16:12 PM
on a side note I honestly cannot remember the last time we had a significant threat without a rain shield prior to the event which hampers the entire event
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 08:27:23 PM
again like the last event, don't see it being much of a tornadic threat here....west of tn river and south into Mississippi is what I am thinkinghrrr really want to recover the atmosphere quite nicely for latter in afternoon ... hrrr been on a roll lately
Post Merge: March 08, 2019, 08:16:12 PM
on a side note I honestly cannot remember the last time we had a significant threat without a rain shield prior to the event which hampers the entire event
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2019, 09:42:44 PM
Post by: Lcwthrnut on March 08, 2019, 10:22:24 PM
Post by: memphishogfan on March 08, 2019, 10:53:35 PM
Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 12:02:40 AM
Huge change tonight
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1552111268956)
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1552111334477)
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif?1552111403821)
Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 12:13:54 AM
Quote
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHEAST MS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through
the early evening. A strong tornado is possible from the confluence
of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern
Mississippi and northwest Alabama.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move
from the central/southern Great Plains to the lower MO Valley by mid
afternoon and subsequently into the Great Lakes after dark. An
intense 90kt 500mb speed max will translate east-northeast from OK
into the lower OH Valley by early evening. In the low levels, a
surface low will develop northeast from central KS to the IA/IL/MO
border by 6pm and into the central Great Lakes overnight. A warm
front over the Mid South will advance northward into the lower OH
Valley by peak heating and a composite dryline/Pacific front will
arc south-southeast from the low into eastern AR and southwestward
into east TX by mid afternoon before sweeping east across the OH
Valley late.
...Eastern OK/TX into the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys...
A complex forecast scenario with associated uncertainty
appropriately describes the risk for severe thunderstorms and
possible tornadoes across portions of the Mid South into the lower
OH Valley today. At the start of the period, a couple of clusters
of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across western
portions of the larger-risk area in parts of northeast TX into
eastern OK/western AR. Varying possible solutions are evident in
model data whether all or parts of this activity moves downstream
with intermittent intensification into the MS Valley during the day
or whether some of this activity weakens on the southern portion
near the Ark-La-Tex during the late morning. Hail, wind, and
perhaps a tornado or two are possible with the early-day storms over
the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.
Farther east, an adequately moist/destabilizing warm sector will
spread north and northeast in wake of the warm front with surface
dewpoints ranging from near 60 degrees F in the lower OH Valley to
the middle 60s farther south into TN/AR/MS/AL. Model guidance
correspondingly indicates weaker buoyancy will exist farther north
(MLCAPEs at or below 500 J/kg north of the OH river to 750-1250 J/kg
farther south) but extreme low-level shear. Hodographs become very
large by early-mid afternoon with flow increasing from 70-90kt in
the 850-500mb layer over the northern half of the Enhanced Risk
area. It seems plausible some attempts at storm development will
occur during the afternoon near the leading edge of the mid-level
dry slot. If the stronger updrafts become sustained, they will
likely evolve into supercells with tornado potential. A corridor of
possibility for supercell tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears
greatest from the OH/MS confluence southward into northern portions
of MS on the trailing portion of large-scale ascent moving away from
the area. As storms encounter weaker buoyancy farther east and
northeast during the evening, a transition to linear structures
capable primarily of damaging winds may occur.
..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/09/2019
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 12:17:30 PM
But after a cold late March, April appears warmer, and possibly stormy. Some long range models show a warm east U.S., and cold lingering in the High Plains and Rockies. That spells an active severe season in April, and a polar opposite to what we saw last year.
Post by: Curt on March 10, 2019, 12:23:13 PM
This won’t help to get things very warm quickly.
Post by: BRUCE on March 10, 2019, 12:35:12 PM
12Z GFS says we aren't done with winter just yet. Several cold shots appear on the horizon after mid month, and more frosts and freezing temperatures appear possible, if not likely. We may even see snow flying from time to time.preach it brother....
But after a cold late March, April appears warmer, and possibly stormy. Some long range models show a warm east U.S., and cold lingering in the High Plains and Rockies. That spells an active severe season in April, and a polar opposite to what we saw last year.
Post Merge: March 10, 2019, 12:40:39 PM
12Z GFS says we aren't done with winter just yet. Several cold shots appear on the horizon after mid month, and more frosts and freezing temperatures appear possible, if not likely. We may even see snow flying from time to time.been reading some thoughts over America wx ... some severe experst calling for a active severe eather season april to mid may...some thoughts from most saying calling least one violent outbreak across south... before things get active in the plains later... ::coffee::
But after a cold late March, April appears warmer, and possibly stormy. Some long range models show a warm east U.S., and cold lingering in the High Plains and Rockies. That spells an active severe season in April, and a polar opposite to what we saw last year.
Post by: Matthew on March 10, 2019, 02:33:28 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 03:03:47 PM
Post by: Charles L. on March 10, 2019, 03:58:12 PM
I'm lovin' it. Today's weather, that is. It's whetting my appetite for more. I hope we have some perfect 70's through most of April into May, before the summer heat sets in.
Same. If we aren’t going to get snow, then my next most favorite weather is sunny with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 04:47:55 PM
Same. If we aren’t going to get snow, then my next most favorite weather is sunny with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Outside of winter weather, spring and fall (the transition seasons) are my favorite. Unfortunately, the transition time seems to be shrinking.
Post by: StormNine on March 10, 2019, 05:49:46 PM
Post by: Curt on March 10, 2019, 08:42:09 PM
Post by: BRUCE on March 10, 2019, 08:59:04 PM
Going to see a massive Colorado cyclone on Wed and Thurs. Looks like northeast Colorado to South Dakota could get 20-30 inches of snow with 60 mph gusts.now. That is what you call a true blizzard there... wow
Post by: NashRugger on March 10, 2019, 10:42:18 PM
Going to see a massive Colorado cyclone on Wed and Thurs. Looks like northeast Colorado to South Dakota could get 20-30 inches of snow with 60 mph gusts.Classic Colorado Low track and bombing out and occluding rapidly, then filling as it moves towards/into the Midwest.
This is the Front Range's prime time of year for big snows.
Post by: cgauxknox on March 11, 2019, 04:27:11 AM
But, this really isn't a snow post, which is why it's in the spring thread. On Friday, a loaded barge (about 1,000 tons of material) broke loose below Fort Loudon Dam and traveled several miles downstream, being caught just 600 yards from a collision with a bridge on I-75. Obviously that kind of impact could structurally compromise a bridge and they had the interstate closed for a period of time until the barge was under control. This happened because of the incredibly high flow rate below Fort Loudon Dam, an environment we're likely to see throughout the Tennessee River system through the spring as we stay wet with already full reservoirs. Severe outbreaks get lots of press, and I admit to getting excited and watching them unfold, but this barge incident highlights the multitude of problems we may see from the incredible volume of water that has fallen on our region over the past several months, combined with what may still come in the spring.
An original article about the barge incident is available here https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/local/2019/03/10/what-happened-friday-nights-runaway-barge-loudon-county-i-75-bridge/3123557002/ for anybody who may be interested.
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2019, 08:54:41 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2019, 09:00:28 AM
West TN looks to receive the heaviest amounts in the next 7 days, while eastern areas see an inch or less.
(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1552312572)
Post by: schneitzeit on March 11, 2019, 09:01:11 AM
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2019, 09:06:31 AM
No offense, Matthew, but I find many of your posts to be unreasonably negative. I'm no meteorologist, but I wouldn't argue models are useless at all just because they can't always predict the future.
Let me correct my statement. Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 11, 2019, 09:17:18 AM
Let me correct my statement. Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days.
::pondering:: That's a safe bet in the winter season. 2018-2019 was painful for snow lovers and model watchers. It was like the State Farm commerical with the fisherman dangling the dollar in front of us and jerking it away when we tried to snatch it. We'd kill for even just a 1" event and couldn't get it. ::rant::
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2019, 09:33:13 AM
Let me correct my statement. Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days.
There was a huge shift in your outlook as winter progressed. And I get it. This winter left many of us feeling jaded and disappointed. And long-range models sucked this year.
Nevertheless, our current weather models are the best we've got, and the best fallible humans can come up with to predict future events in a dynamic and very chaotic system like Earth's weather. While far from perfect, or even good at times, they haven't been around that long in reality. Go back 50 years and look at what forecasters had to use. Tomorrow's weather was hard to forecast back then, and you could forget 3-5 days.
Having said that, I do understand your frustration with models and long range forecasts after this winter. We all had a bitter pill to swallow as winter progressed and our high hopes were dashed on the rocks of disappointment. But, all we can do is let it go and hope for something better next year.
In the meantime, have some ice cream. It always makes me feel better. ;)
Post by: NashRugger on March 11, 2019, 09:41:53 AM
Post by: JHart on March 11, 2019, 10:05:43 AM
The winter failed because of me. I moved to St. Louis on January 4th and a week later 11" got dumped. I took it with me, sorry about it. ::evillaugh::
Or, perhaps, St. Louis only got eleven inches because you were there. ::guitar::
Perspective, like commas, matters. :laugh:
Post by: Thundersnow on March 11, 2019, 11:36:37 AM
I guess I'm getting to an age when I realize life is too short to dwell on things like that. If we ever get another nice, big snowfall again, then I hope to enjoy that when the time comes. Until then, life goes on.
Post by: dwagner88 on March 11, 2019, 12:14:52 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 11, 2019, 12:50:46 PM
After that, any severe threat is marginal until late in the month. It will feel less like spring and more like November come time for the equinox. Fortunately, we are likely to dry out a bit along with the cooler air.
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2019, 02:02:52 PM
There was a huge shift in your outlook as winter progressed. And I get it. This winter left many of us feeling jaded and disappointed. And long-range models sucked this year.
Nevertheless, our current weather models are the best we've got, and the best fallible humans can come up with to predict future events in a dynamic and very chaotic system like Earth's weather. While far from perfect, or even good at times, they haven't been around that long in reality. Go back 50 years and look at what forecasters had to use. Tomorrow's weather was hard to forecast back then, and you could forget 3-5 days.
Having said that, I do understand your frustration with models and long range forecasts after this winter. We all had a bitter pill to swallow as winter progressed and our high hopes were dashed on the rocks of disappointment. But, all we can do is let it go and hope for something better next year.
In the meantime, have some ice cream. It always makes me feel better. ;)
I agree Jaycee. Models do help with near term. I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days. The models are not able to understand all the changes because it takes human input to help them understand. We don’t understand what is happening ourselves. The models for some reason have a cold bias these days. Only to be warmer as we get within 2-3 days. I see us slightly cooler to near normal when March ends. I can tolerate 55-60 and sunny. Just no 40’s and rain please. Soccer is much more enjoyable wo that!
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2019, 02:10:18 PM
I agree Jaycee. Models do help with near term. I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days. The models are not able to understand all the changes because it takes human input to help them understand. We don’t understand what is happening ourselves. The models for some reason have a cold bias these days. Only to be warmer as we get within 2-3 days. I see us slightly cooler to near normal when March ends. I can tolerate 55-60 and sunny. Just no 40’s and rain please. Soccer is much more enjoyable wo that!
The models sure screwed up today's forecast. We've had a half inch of rain on a day it wasn't supposed to rain at all here. Now that's model madness. :o
Post by: StormNine on March 11, 2019, 04:25:46 PM
The WPSD in house model showed 50MPH+ winds in NW TN and Western KY on Thursday and its expansive potentially sub 975MB strength suggests a very potent cyclone and a whole lot of wind advisories and high wind warnings needed across the country.
Post by: Curt on March 11, 2019, 05:30:00 PM
Our mid-week storm may be better known as "An American Wind Machine" versus any type of water attraction.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190311/b3ff1af6412a738752d90b08579d3b30.jpg)
The WPSD in house model showed 50MPH+ winds in NW TN and Western KY on Thursday and its expansive potentially sub 975MB strength suggests a very potent cyclone and a whole lot of wind advisories and high wind warnings needed across the country.
That **might** require a high wind warning. It’s just behind the front too
Post by: WXHD on March 11, 2019, 06:30:01 PM
I agree Jaycee. Models do help with near term. I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days.
As far as I know, the American Republican Party is the only political party in the whole world that denies, demeans and refuses to acknowledge “Climate Change.” Our global climate may be changing, much of it may be beyond our control. But locally, pollution is driving it. No matter who you are, your stream, creeks, rivers and oceans that just a few generations ago were safe to drink from and eat from are polluted. That’s changed and, those changes aren’t cyclical. Not being able to drink water from the Mississippi River is very much “Man Made.” There’s a multi-billion dollar industry that does nothing but clean water and sell it to us in a plastic bottle. The by-product of that is just dirtier water. You can say that this season or that season was just “due to sunspots.” But, sunspots aren’t why we have lead in our water, they’re not why we have pharmaceuticals in our water and, they’re surely not the reason we have air pollution. You and I are why we have these problems. And, you and I have to change. I know that wind and solar energy aren’t “free” but, coal and oil are doing nothing but getting rarer and more expensive. Anyone who doesn’t adapt is going to die and, our country is powerful enough to take the whole human species with. We are also, as individuals, numerous enough to bind together and make a difference.
More of the same ain’t going to help us. When you get a chance for your voice to be heard, be loud.
Post by: Icestorm on March 11, 2019, 06:56:54 PM
Post by: Charles L. on March 11, 2019, 07:13:22 PM
Wow someone needs a chill pill, in the end no matter what anyone says or does, we all will die, nothing will stop that. 😆
You’d make an excellent motivational speaker. I’d pay money to hear ya!
Post by: Thundersnow on March 11, 2019, 07:21:08 PM
Post by: Drifter49 on March 11, 2019, 07:26:50 PM
now. That is what you call a true blizzard there... wow
Hmmm I may have to get some of that.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: memphishogfan on March 11, 2019, 08:44:24 PM
Post by: WXHD on March 11, 2019, 09:11:16 PM
(https://i.gifer.com/JNs.gif)
I will upvote that every single time.
Post Merge: March 11, 2019, 09:33:33 PM
https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/ (https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/)
“Moore noted how “green” companies parasitize taxpayers via favorable regulations and subsidies ostensibly justified by the aforementioned narrative’s claimed threats, all while enjoying propagandistic protection across news media.”
::drowning::
Post by: Thundersnow on March 12, 2019, 09:48:27 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 12, 2019, 09:57:50 AM
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 12, 2019, 12:14:41 PM
I think it's been six months or better since I've seen these dark browns over Tennessee.
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
Not often I like to see dryer than normal on the map, but that is a good thing to see.
Post by: BRUCE on March 12, 2019, 12:18:55 PM
Not often I like to see dryer than normal on the map, but that is a good thing to see.really... even if it’s just for 5 days ....lol
Post by: JayCee on March 12, 2019, 02:18:07 PM
Not often I like to see dryer than normal on the map, but that is a good thing to see.
I prefer wet over dry myself, but we've had enough wet lately. We need a good long stretch of drier weather.
Local farmers have become concerned, as this is when they usually turn over the soil and fertilize to prepare for spring planting. They can't even get into the fields right now, much less work the soil.
Post by: StormNine on March 12, 2019, 05:33:34 PM
I don't think anyone would ever complain about how bad the winter sucked after a storm like that.
Post by: BRUCE on March 12, 2019, 05:41:00 PM
We should of all been born and raised in the Northern Nebraska Panhandle. We would get to see 18-24 inches of snow, 60-65MPH wind gusts, and even up to 1/4th of an inch of ice.that's about 10 years worth of winters for most of us... lol
I don't think anyone would ever complain about how bad the winter sucked after a storm like that.
Post by: JayCee on March 13, 2019, 10:07:06 AM
Post by: BRUCE on March 13, 2019, 10:30:01 AM
After Thursday, the next 7 days appear relatively cool by March standards. Frosts and near freezing temperatures look to occur over a big part of the area starting this weekend, and multiple days next week.yeah. But overall models r backing off some on the colder temps ... slightly cooler times than late March standards ... nothing extreme thank god
Post by: Matthew on March 13, 2019, 11:28:32 AM
Post by: Curt on March 13, 2019, 04:20:22 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 13, 2019, 05:45:42 PM
https://youtu.be/edKFsuiytCg (https://youtu.be/edKFsuiytCg)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 15, 2019, 07:14:02 AM
Things look stable for the next week.
Post by: JayCee on March 15, 2019, 07:34:54 AM
Appears we'll have a cool, but mostly dry week ahead, and one of the longest dry stretches we've seen since last October. Several frosty nights look likely with lows near freezing Saturday through Wednesday over much of TN. 6-10 & 8-14 day outlooks keep us below normal rain-wise, so no more flooding rains on the horizon.
Post by: BRUCE on March 15, 2019, 09:34:09 AM
The "bomb" only dropped .28" of rain here overnight with little fanfare. I think I saw a faint flash of distant lightning through sleepy eyes in the middle of the night, but that's about it.guess we need to enjoy the break... things look to ramp up end of the month... going into april
Appears we'll have a cool, but mostly dry week ahead, and one of the longest dry stretches we've seen since last October. Several frosty nights look likely with lows near freezing Saturday through Wednesday over much of TN. 6-10 & 8-14 day outlooks keep us below normal rain-wise, so no more flooding rains on the horizon.
Post by: JayCee on March 15, 2019, 09:56:45 AM
guess we need to enjoy the break... things look to ramp up end of the month... going into april
With a weak El Nino possibly sticking around through summer, I doubt we'll have many long dry stretches this spring. So, yeah, best enjoy this one.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 16, 2019, 06:24:29 AM
Post by: JHart on March 16, 2019, 08:17:29 AM
I'm sure they ended up with bean-cicles from time to time, but I don't recall it ever happening. :)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 16, 2019, 11:11:51 AM
Bradford pears are flowering, but we don’t care about those... in fact the more damage to be done to them, the better.
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2019, 12:14:38 PM
Post by: StormNine on March 16, 2019, 02:44:56 PM
The 8-14 day and potentially beyond pattern looks a bit concerning with troughing undercutting the western USA ridge. Our active subtropical jet will be a concern as well. It is a pattern that is favorable for the return of stormy weather if it verifies, but for now, it is time to enjoy our break.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 16, 2019, 04:41:04 PM
The tears of Big Blue Nation are raging. ::rofl::
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2019, 05:39:03 PM
River Flood Warning issued for Davidson County.post of year. .... go big orange ....
The tears of Big Blue Nation are raging. ::rofl::
Post by: StormNine on March 16, 2019, 06:27:25 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 16, 2019, 06:48:06 PM
If we can't beat you all in basketball or football we will beat you all in snowfall.
How our teams played today could very well escort both of us to Minneapolis. Aside from the subpar SEC officiating, that game was incredible to watch.
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2019, 07:01:29 PM
How our teams played today could very well escort both of us to Minneapolis. Aside from the subpar SEC officiating, that game was incredible to watch.yeah it had a final 4 feel to it...
Post Merge: March 16, 2019, 07:05:17 PM
If we can't beat you all in basketball or football we will beat you all in snowfall.sounds like you beat us in getting tornadoes 🌪 also
Post by: JayCee on March 17, 2019, 08:13:22 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on March 17, 2019, 08:21:44 AM
Post by: JHart on March 17, 2019, 08:35:32 AM
Post by: StormNine on March 17, 2019, 12:35:24 PM
- BRUCE
- Nashville WX if he is out West
- Park City, Utah
- Reed Timmer
- Sierra Nevada Mountain Range
- Vail, CO
- Vertical Video Stars who scream "CENSORED there is a CENSORED nader down it done lift that cow over there by grandpa we goin die but I gotta put it on Facebook live"
- Wind Farms in the Plains
Post by: Thundersnow on March 17, 2019, 01:36:33 PM
The long range pattern of Southwest troughing and the active Pacific Firehose (6 to 16 days out) on the 12Z GFS will make the following people happy:
- BRUCE
- Nashville WX if he is out West
- Park City, Utah
- Reed Timmer
- Sierra Nevada Mountain Range
- Vail, CO
- Vertical Video Stars who scream "CENSORED there is a CENSORED nader down it done lift that cow over there by grandpa we goin die but I gotta put it on Facebook live"
- Wind Farms in the Plains
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/4c/55/de4c55ae7996e4333b3ca889cb9ae120.gif)
Post by: StormNine on March 17, 2019, 02:27:23 PM
We have a nice string of nice days to enjoy before things go crazy again. Usually, in this pattern, the highs and lows are both underestimated because of clear skies and calmer winds really bring out the diurnal swings.
Post by: memphishogfan on March 17, 2019, 02:52:48 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 17, 2019, 02:53:45 PM
Post by: JayCee on March 17, 2019, 04:28:21 PM
I could go for a month of this weekends weather. Did yard work all day yesterday and am enjoying a nice sunny and 65 day today.
Saturday was a little chilly here, but today's 62 and blue sky was absolutely perfect!
Post by: schneitzeit on March 17, 2019, 04:42:52 PM
War Eagle !!!!!
When your students live in off-campus trailer parks and your biggest tradition is throwing toilet paper in trees, I guess you need to win in something every once in a while
30-24
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 17, 2019, 09:57:24 PM
When your students live in off-campus trailer parks and your biggest tradition is throwing toilet paper in trees, I guess you need to win in something every once in a whileI was more happy with UT beating Kentucky than I was Auburn winning today. I think UT left it on on the court Saturday and it showed today.
30-24
It is evident that you have never been to Auburn’s campus.One of the nicest ones around. We throw toilet paper and you paint a rock.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 17, 2019, 10:55:34 PM
Anywho, I didn't just make that up about Auburn students living in trailers- they live in literal trailers. It's a popular and affordable means of housing there. Thank goodness those twisters missed AU proper earlier this month.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/auburn/comments/60l3yo/admitted_veterinary_student_here_where_is_a/
http://gentillypark.com
Post by: BRUCE on March 18, 2019, 07:00:20 AM
Vols were gassed today. They are a bunch of 2 and 3 stars, and we have seen their ceiling against Kentucky.if they can beat Kentucky 2 out 3... they could beat anybody .... got tough draw early with cincy possible looming ... game be played in Columbus Ohio... cincy is very under seeded also ....
Anywho, I didn't just make that up about Auburn students living in trailers- they live in literal trailers. It's a popular and affordable means of housing there. Thank goodness those twisters missed AU proper earlier this month.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/auburn/comments/60l3yo/admitted_veterinary_student_here_where_is_a/
http://gentillypark.com
Post by: JayCee on March 18, 2019, 07:32:33 AM
Post by: StormNine on March 18, 2019, 09:19:13 PM
Whether that verifies who knows anymore especially when it comes to the GFS model suite. If it does that Vertical Video Vinnie may not get as much coverage.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 19, 2019, 05:29:49 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on March 19, 2019, 05:42:29 AM
http://sandhillsexpress.com/featured-news/portions-of-interstate-29-closed-highway-2-closed-at-nebraska-city-missouri-river-bridge/
Of course, all that water has to eventually empty into the Mississippi.
Post by: JayCee on March 19, 2019, 06:58:56 AM
Considering the flooding T-Snow mentioned above heading down the Missouri & Mississippi Rivers, it's a very good thing the heavy rain here has stopped for now. We don't need anymore runoff added to what's already heading our way.
Post by: Thundersnow on March 20, 2019, 07:13:41 AM
Post by: Coach B on March 20, 2019, 08:09:00 AM
Post by: dwagner88 on March 20, 2019, 08:21:13 AM
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 11:58:18 AM
I will never forget the gallatin tornado day in 2006 when the SPC had our area under high risk and 60% possibility of a tornado and hatched area...Have never seen that again. I took that day more serious than any severe weather event in my life
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 12:09:18 PM
I am hoping we get a good severe weather event coming up soon to track...as long as it doesn't hurt anybody or cause property damage....I am happy if it stays in wooded fields :). But there is some kind of adrenaline I get when a big severe event is forecast and REAL super cells occur...not the crapvection we have had the past few years...It is just fascinating to watch ( again as long as nobody is harmed ).yeah ... those days pretty rare ... the ole color black tornado 🌪 signator.... remember that day very well
I will never forget the gallatin tornado day in 2006 when the SPC had our area under high risk and 60% possibility of a tornado and hatched area...Have never seen that again. I took that day more serious than any severe weather event in my life
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 12:11:44 PM
Hey I wonder if you can find the disco on that ... love to go back read that from spc .... can someone please paste if they find it ... appreciate it
Post by: Eric on March 20, 2019, 12:18:01 PM
yeah ... those days pretty rare ... the ole color black tornado 🌪 signator.... remember that day very well
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 12:11:44 PM
Hey I wonder if you can find the disco on that ... love to go back read that from spc .... can someone please paste if they find it ... appreciate it
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060407_2000.html
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 12:21:51 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060407_2000.htmlthanks. Bro.... that kind wording just gives me chills....
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 01:28:29 PM
thanks. Bro.... that kind wording just gives me chills....
nice to know I am not the only one who obsesses about past high risk days and things like that LOL
another one I remember is the sequences of may 2003...I recall a tornado watch like 3 days in a row here in west middle tn...I was only 17 at the time so I am a bit foggy...I believe that was the Jackson TN F4? But the fact that it was day after day of moderate to high risk right around our area was quite frightening
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 01:37:56 PM
2006 april outbreak image....what was so wild was how EARLY in the day these super cells just exploded!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7555/2052/1600/0407ww0162_radar.0.jpg
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 02:00:43 PM
nice to know I am not the only one who obsesses about past high risk days and things like that LOLthat is correct. Sunday nite may 3 2003 ef4 just mile half from my house.... only damage I got were a couple windows knocked out by the golf ball hail it contained ....
another one I remember is the sequences of may 2003...I recall a tornado watch like 3 days in a row here in west middle tn...I was only 17 at the time so I am a bit foggy...I believe that was the Jackson TN F4? But the fact that it was day after day of moderate to high risk right around our area was quite frightening
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 01:37:56 PM
2006 april outbreak image....what was so wild was how EARLY in the day these super cells just exploded!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7555/2052/1600/0407ww0162_radar.0.jpg
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:03:43 PM
Think last high risk day we have had was late May 2011... that event effected mostly the Ohio valley regions think.... course 2011 was probably last true violent spring south has had ....
Post by: Eric on March 20, 2019, 02:38:19 PM
that is correct. Sunday nite may 3 2003 ef4 just mile half from my house.... only damage I got were a couple windows knocked out by the golf ball hail it contained ....
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:03:43 PM
Think last high risk day we have had was late May 2011... that event effected mostly the Ohio valley regions think.... course 2011 was probably last true violent spring south has had ....
March 2012, from what I can remember, was the last HIGH. If LCLs had been lower (caused by afternoon atmospheric mixing, IIRC), this one could've been really bad. Supercell dropped tennis balls across I-40 into Dickson/Nashville. Wall cloud spotted in Lavergne/Antioch.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk_20120302_2000.html
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 02:52:06 PM
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:54:31 PM
sorry eric...for some reason I didn't see your post lol. Also the april 2014 outbreak is another one where morning crapvection prevented us from having a really BIG outbreak here in Tennessee....happens a lot.
Lets not forget the 2010 floods were originally a high risk pds severe weather day however it just poured and poured and poured
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 03:12:08 PM
march 2012 was last high risk I remember that included our viewing area....theat was the Henryville Indiana tornado F4 and several others in KY and also several other ones in Ms and Alabama that day , another one of those weird scenarios where 100 miles north it was devastating and to our south they got slammed yet most of TN was sparedmay 2010 was the big yazoo city ms tornado 🌪....
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:54:31 PM
sorry eric...for some reason I didn't see your post lol. Also the april 2014 outbreak is another one where morning crapvection prevented us from having a really BIG outbreak here in Tennessee....happens a lot.
Lets not forget the 2010 floods were originally a high risk pds severe weather day however it just poured and poured and poured
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 03:29:45 PM
may 2010 was the big yazoo city ms tornado 🌪....
that one was a biggie....Hattiesburg is another tornado that has some great video to watch.
I have a question I was under the weather for a week or two and didn't keep up with things as much as I would have liked....
the outbreak which had that large tornado in Lee county Alabama, did spc ever increase risk to moderate or did they just leave it at enhanced all day? IMO spc has had a bad spring so far and was wondering about that particular day because I didn't get to keep a track of it that day....if it was not upgraded to at least a Moderate risk then I consider that a fail on their part for that day, 40 tornadoes several ef2 , an ef3 and ef4
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 03:40:08 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 20, 2019, 03:42:59 PM
http://www.philip-lutzak.com/weather/meteo361/project_3.htm
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 04:07:39 PM
Pretty sure it stayed enhanced.... I agree with you
again just an opinion, it leads to apathy among the casual average person when threats are not properly forecast...we all know how easy it can change through the day and understand...but the general public says "they cried wolf again" OR it gets under forecast such as the recent Alabama/Georgia outbreak then people really don't take it seriously at all.....it's hard
Post by: Eric on March 20, 2019, 04:17:01 PM
https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,99.210.html
Post by: JayCee on March 20, 2019, 05:35:38 PM
Quote
Biggest concern will be the low freezing levels which should allow
for some wintry precip to mix in over mainly higher elevation areas.
There will likely even be some light snow accumulations over some of
the higher mountain peaks mainly above 4000 feet, and will continue
to mention this in the HWO. In addition, there will be some limited
convective energy available, so some stronger showers may bring some
pea size hail even in valley locations Thursday due to the low
freezing levels.
Post by: StormNine on March 20, 2019, 07:29:31 PM
We are long overdue for a High Risk event as I believe we have the longest streak without a High Risk since they have been issued in the 1980s. 11/27/1994, 5/4 and 5/5/2003, 1/21/1999, 4/7/2006, and 2/5/2008 are also High Risk Days.
Post by: schneitzeit on March 20, 2019, 08:13:48 PM
Post by: NashRugger on March 20, 2019, 08:54:43 PM
that is correct. Sunday nite may 3 2003 ef4 just mile half from my house.... only damage I got were a couple windows knocked out by the golf ball hail it containedAnd later that night, early in the morning the next day, the north side of Murfreesboro got rocked, particularly from US 231 (Memorial Blvd) along De Jarnette Ln to near the rock quarry east of Hwy 96, were hit hard by hail larger than tennis balls embedded within a very destructive downburst. I was 15 at the time at Oakland HS and all the trees were stripped and shredded on their west and north faces, while the other side of De Jarnette, trees were stripped from west and south. Homes lost all windows and have siding beaten off and roofs pecked to bits.
Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 08:56:35 PM
may 2010 was the big yazoo city ms tornado 🌪....That tornado happened the weekend BEFORE the big flood, on April 24th.
Post by: ChrisPC on March 21, 2019, 07:28:53 AM
Post by: gcbama on March 21, 2019, 08:18:47 AM
I'm surprised 16 April 1998 wasn't a high risk day. That outbreak produced the only EF5 in Tennessee as well as the Nashville tornado.
it was a high risk day
Post by: Thundersnow on March 21, 2019, 08:19:54 AM
I remember the Yazoo City tornado well; my wife and I grew up near there. My wife’s cousin almost drove into the tornado. She and her kids got into a brick building just in time. Unfortunately, she passed away last year after a car accident.
I was actually in MS when that happened with my girlfriend at the time (now wife) and a group of friends in Oxford where she is from. I remember it being warm and humid, and the sun was shining. We were somewhere with the TV on with coverage out of Memphis for the storms further south in MS. I think the Yazoo City tornado had just happened.
Post by: gcbama on March 21, 2019, 08:25:55 AM
The last High Risk was either 03/02/2012 (Northern Middle and Northeast TN), 5/25/2011 (West TN and West Middle TN) or 4/27/2011 (Southern Middle or Southeastern TN).
We are long overdue for a High Risk event as I believe we have the longest streak without a High Risk since they have been issued in the 1980s. 11/27/1994, 5/4 and 5/5/2003, 1/21/1999, 4/7/2006, and 2/5/2008 are also High Risk Days.
some others are 4-8-98 for southern mid tn( the Birmingham f5 (I just happened to be in B-ham that day SCARY), the Nashville tornado outbreak, 2002 veterans day outbreak and the November outbreak in 2005 are also memorable since they happened so late in the year. We have had many more high risks than people realize I think
Post by: Eric on March 21, 2019, 08:44:33 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days
Post by: gcbama on March 21, 2019, 08:48:26 AM
SPC HIGH risk days...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days
I think people will be surprised at how many the mid state has had....Veterans day 2002 , Nov 2005 and the 2006 outbreak are 3 that were particularly scary
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2019, 09:17:27 AM
Off work today, so maybe I should head up there and see what happens. One last look at snow, in a winter I've only seen it twice. Tempting.
Post by: BRUCE on March 21, 2019, 09:41:48 AM
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2019, 02:48:12 PM
Post by: cgauxknox on March 21, 2019, 02:52:48 PM
Post by: StormNine on March 21, 2019, 04:03:55 PM
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 21, 2019, 04:35:52 PM
Post by: Thundersnow on March 21, 2019, 05:41:19 PM
I think we should probably be okay with that.
Post by: StormNine on March 21, 2019, 09:02:06 PM
Weather forecast for the foreseeable future looks cool to pleasantly mild... a couple of systems but nothing too gangbusters right now.
I think we should probably be okay with that.
I am pretty cool with that. Especially while we and areas upriver dry out. Since I am getting on a plane next weekend it would be nice to not have too many delays or crazy turbulence. It does look like things aren't as bad as they once appeared in the longer range (still may have one late March system to watch maybe).
I still think the 2nd half of this spring has an above average threat for a severe weather sequence event due to the tendency at times to have SW USA troughing and our active jet stream pattern.
Post by: gcbama on March 22, 2019, 08:31:39 AM
We have had several years where we had at least 2 High Risks per year. This is why this 7 or 8-year drought (depending on where you are at) is quite unusual.
agreed 100%. In our area going back to the 2011 april outbreak we had had a big rain shield a few hours before the event that prevents us from major outbreaks....it has happened so many times I cannot count....not saying it is a bad thing but just interesting that it keeps happening that way....also as I said yesterday the 2010 flood situation was a "high risk" severe day that turned into a rain shield also....quite interesting
Post by: BRUCE on March 22, 2019, 10:21:56 AM
agreed 100%. In our area going back to the 2011 april outbreak we had had a big rain shield a few hours before the event that prevents us from major outbreaks....it has happened so many times I cannot count....not saying it is a bad thing but just interesting that it keeps happening that way....also as I said yesterday the 2010 flood situation was a "high risk" severe day that turned into a rain shield also....quite interestingthe last really good severe outbreak I can recall that didn’t have rain sheiild most day was the Super Tuesday event ... late that afternoon we had a really nice dry punch break through ... before the action began... the air really got un stable quick that evening
Post by: gcbama on March 22, 2019, 11:30:22 AM
the last really good severe outbreak I can recall that didn’t have rain sheiild most day was the Super Tuesday event ... late that afternoon we had a really nice dry punch break through ... before the action began... the air really got un stable quick that evening
that one long track supercell that went from MS to KY fropped f2 damage 3 miles from me....you could hear it just over the hills here in lewis county
But just think april 2011....april 2014 were both potential disasters that we were spared from because of early morning/afternoon rains
Post by: BRUCE on March 22, 2019, 11:40:26 AM
that one long track supercell that went from MS to KY fropped f2 damage 3 miles from me....you could hear it just over the hills here in lewis countyit was a mcs came through late night early morning that screwed up the super 1974 outbreak for west Tennessee and east Arkansas ... but it set up outflow boundaries across middle and eastern Tennessee for a terrible situation we all know of course
But just think april 2011....april 2014 were both potential disasters that we were spared from because of early morning/afternoon rains
Post by: JayCee on March 23, 2019, 02:51:58 PM
Post by: schneitzeit on March 24, 2019, 07:53:01 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 24, 2019, 08:07:12 PM
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 09:34:56 AM
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 09:36:27 AM
Post by: memphishogfan on March 25, 2019, 09:54:32 AM
Out of curiosity. I know a negative AMO typically reduces the number of major tropical systems you have in a year, but what is its effects on Severe weather?
Post by: BRUCE on March 25, 2019, 11:13:48 AM
On to another topic....looks like the AMO might be finally flipping to negative. It’s been positive since 1996 and usually flips every 20-25 years. If its sustainable, it has lots of implications on climate over the next 2 decades.we already gotten a situation that’s causing implications on our climate.... it’s called global warming ... that’s bad enough.
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2019, 02:48:57 PM
On to another topic....looks like the AMO might be finally flipping to negative. It’s been positive since 1996 and usually flips every 20-25 years. If its sustainable, it has lots of implications on climate over the next 2 decades.
Now flip it! Flip it good!
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 03:12:23 PM
we already gotten a situation that’s causing implications on our climate.... it’s called global warming ... that’s bad enough.
Really just intending to bring up the sensible effects of the AMO- not bring global warming or politics into play here. This is something that can be measured however.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/d7b4d1b733d445948e16941e6ea7dc99.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/1f3adc585c471242626f0195f8bbce64.jpg)
Post by: JHart on March 25, 2019, 05:11:20 PM
Now flip it! Flip it good!
Well, thank you very much. Now that's stuck in my head. ::whistling::
Post by: Drifter49 on March 25, 2019, 05:13:43 PM
Now flip it! Flip it good!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: BRUCE on March 25, 2019, 05:28:33 PM
i hated that band with passion... wasn’t my type music back then lol
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2019, 06:10:55 PM
Really just intending to bring up the sensible effects of the AMO- not bring global warming or politics into play here. This is something that can be measured however.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/d7b4d1b733d445948e16941e6ea7dc99.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/1f3adc585c471242626f0195f8bbce64.jpg)
Well just means no severe wx at all Bruce and either cold rains or cold and dry for the winters😂
#welcometotennessee
Post by: Drifter49 on March 25, 2019, 06:31:55 PM
i hated that band with passion... wasn’t my type music back then lol
Ah more of a culture club guy
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 06:48:14 PM
Well just means no severe wx at all Bruce and either cold rains or cold and dry for the winters
#welcometotennessee
Negative AMO plus a negative PDO have displayed the coldest and snowiest periods for Tennessee by a long shot ie ‘60-‘96. Yes- they are drier, but as Storm59 has mentioned....cold dry winters usually mean precip has a better shot at being wintry. I’m waiting on the full switch to a negative AMO before making any conclusions on where climate is headed.
Post by: Drifter49 on March 25, 2019, 06:49:54 PM
Negative AMO plus a negative PDO have displayed the coldest and snowiest periods for Tennessee by a long shot ie ‘60-‘96. Yes- they are drier, but as Storm59 has mentioned....cold dry winters usually mean precip has w better shot at being wintry. I’m waiting on the full switch to a negative AMO before making any conclusions on where climate is headed.I definitely could use some 70’s and 80’s winters. Especially 70’s.
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Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2019, 07:16:26 PM
i hated that band with passion... wasn’t my type music back then lol
[attachimg=1]
Post by: mamMATTus on March 25, 2019, 08:53:01 PM