Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Thundersnow on February 24, 2019, 02:51:13 PM

Title: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on February 24, 2019, 02:51:13 PM
Friday will be March 1st. Time to start the thread and own it.

Kinda hoping for a dry stretch at some point.

(No particular reason to put this in the Severe forum, other than thatís where we traditionally put the spring thread.)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Uncle Nasty on February 24, 2019, 03:38:46 PM
 (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190224/45a2c97063aae50278fc1a14190e79e8.jpg)

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: WXHD on February 24, 2019, 07:14:45 PM
Iím in. I am done with winter. Did my best to get sunburnt today.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on February 25, 2019, 02:40:16 PM
The first half of March appears cold, but from the building upper air heights afterwards, the cold doesn't seem to linger on forever like last spring.  Maybe after an abysmal winter we can at least have a decent transition season to summer with 60's and 70's.   I'm sure we'll still have cold shots here and there, but last year the cold moved in and stayed until May.   

One thing I highly recommend for the coming spring is mosquito repellent.  They'll be feasting on us this year. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on February 25, 2019, 02:56:41 PM
Looks like the CFS model. Mid to long range toolsniff patterns is firing severe wx second half
March into early April ... looks active stormy ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on February 25, 2019, 04:22:21 PM
Looks like the CFS model. Mid to long range toolsniff patterns is firing severe wx second half
March into early April ... looks active stormy ...

If there is a -PNA I might score a winter threat during the 5 or so days I am in Utah right at the end of March/beginning of April.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Beth on February 26, 2019, 02:30:49 PM
I am staying in this thread!  Staying away from the winter one!  I want this weather today till summer arrives.  Please, no more snow and no more rain!  😎😎😎😎😎
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on February 26, 2019, 02:36:59 PM
I am staying in this thread!  Staying away from the winter one!  I want this weather today till summer arrives.  Please, no more snow and no more rain!  😎😎😎😎😎

Probably the sanest choice.  The winter thread will make you go cray cray.     ::cliff::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on February 26, 2019, 06:44:30 PM
That post was made days ago... when gfs was showing a threat .... course it has changed big time since .... lol

Post Merge: February 26, 2019, 07:59:06 PM
Accuweather predicting 525 tornadoes 🌪 from first March to the end may this spring ...I know. Accuweather ... lol
Title: Re: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Crockett on February 26, 2019, 10:07:16 PM
That post was made days ago... when gfs was showing a threat .... course it has changed big time since .... lol

Post Merge: February 26, 2019, 07:59:06 PM
Accuweather predicting 525 tornadoes 🌪 from first March to the end may this spring ...I know. Accuweather ... lol

How in the name of fuh can Accuweather even make a prediction about the number of tornadoes with a straight face? Just another reason why friends don't let their weather un-savvy friends download the Accuweather app.
Title: Re: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on February 26, 2019, 10:12:19 PM
I'm an avid fan of Crackuweather's 90-day forecast.
Title: Re: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on February 27, 2019, 04:36:11 AM
525 tornadoes in the USA during that timeframe is actually pretty close to average.  It sounds like a lot but it is pretty much a more hyped way of saying an average spring severe weather season.   Our March-May average in the USA is 537.
https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-03-27-april-may-june-tornadoes-peak-months
Title: Re: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2019, 05:21:02 AM
525 tornadoes in the USA during that timeframe is actually pretty close to average.  It sounds like a lot but it is pretty much a more hyped way of saying an average spring severe weather season.   Our March-May average in the USA is 537.
https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-03-27-april-may-june-tornadoes-peak-months
guess. We have been way below average last 3 years or so ... overall thinking is uptick to more threats this spring ... Iím liking the mid to late March pattern coming ... looking out long range stuff... guess this should been put in spring thread ... my bad. Lol
Title: Re: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Charles L. on February 27, 2019, 05:52:23 AM
Great article about that AccuWeather nonsense.

https://t.co/NVhYvqXc7k
Title: Re: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2019, 06:32:53 AM
It may or may not snow in the next 5-7 days. But the Euro, CMC, and GFS all say next week is gonna be brutally cold for this time of year. Anywhere from 15-25 degrees below average. Lows on a couple models approach single digits next Wed/Thurs. Highs near freezing. Brrrrrr!!!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
yeah without doubt at all cold is coming ..and pretty impressive for this time year ... but theme this winter appears when cold here she dries up ... guess itís good thing since weíre dealing  with river flooding etc... be nice sneak a winter event in last second ....  though Iím ready for spring....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on February 27, 2019, 06:47:30 AM
Hopefully temps in the lower 20's next week will mean I'll have 10 less mosquitos to deal with.  They are already out and looking for blood. 

After a very mild winter with flooding rains, we're in for a bad biting bug summer.  We may need something like this just to survive it:

https://www.amazon.com/Mosquito-Repellant-Netting-Insects-Activities/dp/B07FNRBJRZ/ref=asc_df_B07FNRBJRZ/?tag=bingshoppinga-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid={creative}&hvpos={adposition}&hvnetw=o&hvrand={random}&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=e&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl={devicemodel}&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=&hvtargid=pla-4584482455164448&psc=1 (https://www.amazon.com/Mosquito-Repellant-Netting-Insects-Activities/dp/B07FNRBJRZ/ref=asc_df_B07FNRBJRZ/?tag=bingshoppinga-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid={creative}&hvpos={adposition}&hvnetw=o&hvrand={random}&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=e&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl={devicemodel}&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=&hvtargid=pla-4584482455164448&psc=1)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on February 27, 2019, 10:57:36 AM
61 and sunshine in Knoxville, yes please!
Title: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2019, 06:03:16 AM

FWIW, the SPC is highlighting an area of potential severe weather risk on Day 4 or Sunday... mainly south of TN.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day4prob_20190228_1200.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2019, 06:18:23 AM
FWIW, the SPC is highlighting an area of potential severe weather risk on Day 4 or Sunday... mainly south of TN.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day4prob_20190228_1200.gif)
this threat has kept creeping north each model run... potential dangerous day for centeral Alabama and Georgia and further south.. cape along that area 2000jewles ...another big system have eye on next weekend ...for severe wx and heavy rain...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2019, 08:13:34 AM
Euro definitely more aggressive in terms of instability.  So much so, I wonder if it's overdoing it.  The GFS has a fraction of the instability and its confined the southern end of Mississippi.  Euro also depicts a tremendously moist warm sector, that may be overdone.  We know how the dew point situation worked out with the past event.  GFS surface winds are also out of the west(?).  Not sure I've seen that with a SLP.  Whatever it is, all I see is a conditional threat along and south of the I-20/59 corridor.  If the higher SBCAPE values and Tds are realized, there may be something to it.  I'm skeptical.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Flash on February 28, 2019, 08:59:15 AM
Hate to say it, but the D4 system looks like the better severe weather parameters will be to our south and the better wintry weather parameters will be to our north. This is the time of year where we're caught in that awkward tween stage.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on February 28, 2019, 10:08:48 AM
After yesterday's beautiful weather, I'm not looking forward to the level of cold coming next week.  I could deal with it much better if snow accumulations were involved, but if it ain't gonna snow, it might as well be 65 and sunny.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 01, 2019, 06:40:44 AM
Iíve got 4x the rain that the GFS had modeled to this point on the 12z yesterday. It had around 0.25Ē. Iím very close to 1Ē and itís still raining. Crossed 20Ē for the year this morning.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2019, 08:18:32 AM
We are having downpours of heavy rain over here in the foothills.   Seems to be much heavier than what the models were showing. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2019, 08:21:53 AM
Sunday's risk has been suppressed further south, really central MS/AL to the coast.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 01, 2019, 08:22:30 AM
Sunday's risk has been suppressed further south, really central MS/AL to the coast.

Was just fixing to post this.   ::coffee:: ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on March 01, 2019, 08:30:51 AM
We are having downpours of heavy rain over here in the foothills.   Seems to be much heavier than what the models were showing.
Same for the valley this morning and we had more than they expected yesterday as well.  Things have mostly cleared from last weekend but I have to wonder how much it will really take on Sunday to re-flood some of the most vulnerable places.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2019, 05:19:06 PM
Ended up recording .75" of rain, with .70 being run-off. 


Edit: Actually, I forgot what I poured out this morning, so .93 was the total for the whole event.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: collinsk on March 01, 2019, 08:36:31 PM
I hope spring comes in earnest soon.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2019, 07:24:44 AM
After a very cold, January-like week, next weekend looks much more like March.  Mild and stormy. 

I have a feeling we're not done with the flooding yet.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2019, 01:13:20 PM
12z euro. Spells trouble brewing next weekend ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 02, 2019, 01:31:00 PM
Not to get Bruce too excited but if we can keep the -PNA then I think we will have an above average severe weather season both locally and nationally.  Remember we have an active subtropical jet and a warmer than average Gulf of Mexico/west Atlantic.  If the PNA shots up to the + side then our chances of an active severe weather season do take a hit. 
 
One negative will be we could see too many storm systems and not have enough time for sufficient moisture return between them, but as we go into Late April and May that could spell a sequence event.   

I do think we are not done with flooding yet either, unfortunately. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2019, 02:13:45 PM
Not to get Bruce too excited but if we can keep the -PNA then I think we will have an above average severe weather season both locally and nationally.  Remember we have an active subtropical jet and a warmer than average Gulf of Mexico/west Atlantic.  If the PNA shots up to the + side then our chances of an active severe weather season do take a hit. 
 
One negative will be we could see too many storm systems and not have enough time for sufficient moisture return between them, but as we go into Late April and May that could spell a sequence event.   

I do think we are not done with flooding yet either, unfortunately.
yeah like weíre we heading ... for both eyes on it
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 02, 2019, 04:02:20 PM
12z euro. Spells trouble brewing next weekend ...
agreed .....bruce you and i have both said for a few weeks that this will be a very active severe season....i still stand by it
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2019, 11:14:29 AM
I took a drive around parts of east Tennessee yesterday, and I was surprised to still see flooded areas.  Some fields were full of water, and there were a lot of ponds where ponds don't usually exist.  I assume the water is just taking time to drain considering the water table is probably near the surface.

We're having another day of moderate rain, and will probably see an inch or so here.  Another round of possible heavy rain will occur next weekend.  At this rate, flooding will last deep into spring.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 03, 2019, 01:26:19 PM
It just thrills me to report that the GFS is showing another long duration heavy rain event Fri-Sun. It also dramatically underestimated rainfall for todayís system.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: cliftown04 on March 03, 2019, 01:39:21 PM
Yes we only had a little over an inch here this morning and the amount of run off was amazing. Not to mention how long it is taking the Tennessee River to recede. The forecast of 3-4Ē+ Would be concerning.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 03, 2019, 01:45:03 PM
Both gfs and euro painting a wicked severe threat next weekend ... pretty remarkable how fast we recover from couple days of very cold temps ... gfs painting some 2000 cape over large portion midsouth ... something to watch closely as we draw near the next weekend
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: wfrogge on March 03, 2019, 03:00:19 PM
Both gfs and euro painting a wicked severe threat next weekend ... pretty remarkable how fast we recover from couple days of very cold temps ... gfs painting some 2000 cape over large portion midsouth ... something to watch closely as we draw near the next weekend

Good thing ill be in Orlando :(
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2019, 03:29:42 PM
It just thrills me to report that the GFS is showing another long duration heavy rain event Fri-Sun. It also dramatically underestimated rainfall for todayís system.

Approaching an inch and a half here, and it's still pouring. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: justinmundie on March 04, 2019, 06:20:43 AM
FV3 sim radar looks erm interesting next weekend over a large area
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 04, 2019, 08:32:05 AM
Fun fact: if it continues to rain at the same rate that it has year to date, KCHA will get 128.82" of rain this year.  ::drowning::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 08:48:53 AM
Fun fact: if it continues to rain at the same rate that it has year to date, KCHA will get 128.82" of rain this year.  ::drowning::

Yuck
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2019, 09:05:08 AM
After yesterday.  Severe wx can move on.  Very sad so many hurt or killed from the tornadoes.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2019, 09:23:32 AM
We've been extremely blessed to have had such a long stretch of time without major severe weather outbreaks.  But this year my be different.  Starting next weekend into next week, it looks pretty stormy.  I'm not looking forward to a violent spring, if it's coming. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 09:35:21 AM
After yesterday.  Severe wx can move on.  Very sad so many hurt or killed from the tornadoes.

Too many lives cut short yesterday.

Increase awareness, increase awareness, increase awareness.

A possible benefit of my generation's addiction to smartphones is warning systems are much more penetrable. Sadly, many older folks don't know these storms are coming unless they have the TV on or a family member or friend called.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 04, 2019, 10:40:19 AM
Since weíre in now met spring... I just put this here from now on... 12z gfs holds serve ... it really wanting to bomb out the slp over north central Missouri ... low level shear out the ying yang ... warm sector looks reach bout southern Illinois ...  gfs ejects the trough quicker than the euro... letís see how euro 12z comes in....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: NismoWx on March 04, 2019, 11:37:40 AM
Too many lives cut short yesterday.

Increase awareness, increase awareness, increase awareness.

A possible benefit of my generation's addiction to smartphones is warning systems are much more penetrable. Sadly, many older folks don't know these storms are coming unless they have the TV on or a family member or friend called.
The problem with that is that the general public has become immune to the warnings. They don't take them seriously because they are so used to forecasts busting. Then they want to claim that they had no warning, when the SPC has been highlighting that for at least 4 days prior.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 12:22:20 PM
Very true. A major issue is that many people assume the cell must be in a different part of the county if a warning is issued. For example: a storm going over Fairview tracking NW to Davidson County will sound off the sirens all over Williamson County, even though only a tiny sliver of Williamson is under a threat of a tornado. People hear the sirens so often they become immune to them, like you said. When you've heard the sirens go off 50 times during tornado outbreaks and not one tornado has ever hit you, you're apt to brush it off.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: NismoWx on March 04, 2019, 01:32:11 PM
Very true. A major issue is that many people assume the cell must be in a different part of the county if a warning is issued. For example: a storm going over Fairview tracking NW to Davidson County will sound off the sirens all over Williamson County, even though only a tiny sliver of Williamson is under a threat of a tornado. People hear the sirens so often they become immune to them, like you said. When you've heard the sirens go off 50 times during tornado outbreaks and not one tornado has ever hit you, you're apt to brush it off.
Part of the polygon problem is that nobody knows where they are anymore without a GPS, especially the generation we're rearing now. That's why James Spann is so effective in the Birmingham market... He knows where EVERYTHING is, and can relate that to the public. That's something the NWS will never be able to duplicate, so it's up to the broadcast Mets to do it. Nashville doesn't have anyone qualified to do that since Bill Hall (may he rest in peace!) and Lisa Patton retired.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2019, 03:06:55 PM
Part of the polygon problem is that nobody knows where they are anymore without a GPS, especially the generation we're rearing now. That's why James Spann is so effective in the Birmingham market... He knows where EVERYTHING is, and can relate that to the public. That's something the NWS will never be able to duplicate, so it's up to the broadcast Mets to do it. Nashville doesn't have anyone qualified to do that since Bill Hall (may he rest in peace!) and Lisa Patton retired.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

That's why the Mets in Nashville need to get down to street-level with their coverage.  Some do, but don't do it often/well enough to be effective.  Our social media message has and always will be hyper-local weather info your area, but as social-mediasts, we can only do so much.  I think Bree Smith mentioned Nashville serving a 66-county area and I can guarantee they don't know all the hollows and bluffs across they area.  If the person receiving the info doesn't know where the area, then that's a them problem and not a "you" problem. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 04, 2019, 05:21:41 PM
I was sitting here trying to remember the last blue bird day like today. I honestly canít remember.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: NismoWx on March 04, 2019, 05:28:53 PM
That's why the Mets in Nashville need to get down to street-level with their coverage.  Some do, but don't do it often/well enough to be effective.  Our social media message has and always will be hyper-local weather info your area, but as social-mediasts, we can only do so much.  I think Bree Smith mentioned Nashville serving a 66-county area and I can guarantee they don't know all the hollows and bluffs across they area.  If the person receiving the info doesn't know where the area, then that's a them problem and not a "you" problem.
Absolutely. At some point, they have to learn personal responsibility and accountability. Part of me is like, okay Darwinism at its finest, but the part of me that spent 10yrs in Fire/EMS trying to SAVE lives has a bigger grasp of my heart. At least I can say I tried.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 04, 2019, 07:06:37 PM
Not thrilled with Saturday's threat looking nocturnal.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Beth on March 04, 2019, 08:33:29 PM
The NWS did say that the tornado that hit Lee County was a F4. The hardest hit area with the most fatalities were mobile/modular homes.  Prayers for them! 🙏🏻
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 04, 2019, 10:47:16 PM
Not thrilled with Saturday's threat looking nocturnal.

I think itís just going to be a rain event.  Models backing off any severe.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 04, 2019, 10:59:52 PM
I think itís just going to be a rain event.  Models backing off any severe.
We won't be getting any severe WX in Knoxville, but areas a few hundred miles south and west of us may. What models have you looked at that indicate they are backing off from the severe threat? I haven't seen any indication of this
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 05:35:45 AM
I think itís just going to be a rain event.  Models backing off any severe.
last nights 0z euro actually ramped up the threat for severe wx late Saturday ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2019, 05:49:54 AM
Wow- really big area the SPC is highlighting for Day 5 or Saturday:

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day5prob_20190305_1200.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2019, 08:14:55 AM
Severe threat, at least for TN, looks minimal.  There may be a strong storm or two, given the insane amount of wind shear the GFS is predicting (over 1200 m2s2 along the Tn River   :o :o :o ).  Can't rule out the possibility of a few QLCS spinups.  Greatest shot at anything severe may be along the same areas that got hit this past weekend.  SPC even alluded to it...

Quote
Greater severe risk may
   therefore remain farther south, from east Texas/Louisiana across the
   Lower Mississippi Valley region, and possibly into the central Gulf
   Coast states late.

Euro equally not impressive for TN, specifically.  But QLCS spinups always know how to ruin the party.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 02:52:54 PM
Severe threat, at least for TN, looks minimal.  There may be a strong storm or two, given the insane amount of wind shear the GFS is predicting (over 1200 m2s2 along the Tn River   :o :o :o ).  Can't rule out the possibility of a few QLCS spinups.  Greatest shot at anything severe may be along the same areas that got hit this past weekend.  SPC even alluded to it...

Euro equally not impressive for TN, specifically.  But QLCS spinups always know how to ruin the party.
12z euro says. If this system fail for severe weather here... we got another chance after this system ... looks ha e much much better warm sector ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 05, 2019, 02:59:54 PM
Bruce, you are always saying there is a severe threat whenever any weekend is coming up  ;D
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 03:04:19 PM
No offense, Bruce, but you are always saying there is a severe threat whenever any weekend is coming up.
going by models dude... seriously ...Iím not making this up....lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2019, 03:29:35 PM
going by models dude... seriously ...Iím not making this up....lol

What day you looking at?  12z Euro goes out to next Friday and I'm having a hard time picking up on anything worth noting outside the TN Valley.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 03:34:33 PM
What day you looking at?  12z Euro goes out to next Friday and I'm having a hard time picking up on anything worth noting outside the TN Valley.
192 hr moving from west ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2019, 03:40:23 PM
Ahh yes, the ole QLCS conundrum.  Meh.  It's still 200+ hours out.  The parent SLP may be in Alberta by then.   ::shrug::

12z GFS ain't having any of it, by the way. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 05, 2019, 04:16:30 PM
Back to this weekend's threat:

The GFS lights up the East TN Valley pretty well, which is kind of rare this early in the season. Temperatures will be on the lower side (high 50s-low 60s) but I wouldn't rule out the chance of strong thunderstorms. I expect intense rainfall and high winds in Knoxville when this reaches us.

What is the look for the rest of the South?

Post Merge: March 05, 2019, 04:18:56 PM
Any input from our Memphis posters on this weekend's possible severe outbreak would be appreciated. I have friends there who always ask me about severe weather threats, but I've been busy this week and haven't been watching the models like I normally do
Title: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2019, 07:06:05 PM
OHX thoughts on the system- theyíre certainly paying attention:

Quote
Getting into the day Saturday, by 12Z, the upper trough axis
looks to be over the high Plains, and will quickly surge eastward
and develop a negative tilt as the axis is along the MO River
Valley by 00Z Sunday. This will keep the southeast with strong
southerly flow, especially in the low levels, and allow for
strong WAA and moisture advection bringing dewpoints into the
upper 50s across the area. Soundings show very strong shear, with
0-6km shear values around 50 to even 80 knots depending on which
model you choose. The instability is a bit on the low side,
however enough MUCAPE and especially shear values exist,
with the best area currently west of I-65. Low level helicity
values are also strong, and 0-1km shear is 40 knots or higher
between the models as well. With all of the shear present,
especially in the low levels, will definitely need to keep an eye
on the evolution of this system for late Saturday afternoon
through early Sunday morning for severe thunderstorm potential.
Models have been pretty consistent on timing so far, so when short
term models get to be within range, there will be more solutions
to contribute to confidence on storm potential and timing.

Not to mention hinting at another system next week...

Quote
Models diverge a bit on
solutions for Monday and Tuesday, however the GFS and ECMWF have
been pretty consistent showing another strong trough and
associated cold front for Wednesday/Wednesday night, which has the
potential to be another severe weather threat. But, that`s still
way out towards the end of the model runs, so a lot can change
over the coming week in regards to the evolution of next week`s
system.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: WXHD on March 05, 2019, 08:32:36 PM
Bruce called the event two weeks ago and, Iím inclined to listen to him this time too.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: wfrogge on March 05, 2019, 08:41:15 PM
Not sure what some of you are looking at but thatís ok. Negative tilt trof and a screaming low level jet to me are spelling possible trouble for the western part of the state.  Yeah things could change but we canít forecast based on that can we?   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 09:15:03 PM
Not sure what some of you are looking at but thatís ok. Negative tilt trof and a screaming low level jet to me are spelling possible trouble for the western part of the state.  Yeah things could change but we canít forecast based on that can we?
I give up.... im just glad were heading toward a active severe spring finally
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2019, 09:31:18 PM
Bruce called the event two weeks ago and, Iím inclined to listen to him this time too.

How did that one work out for Tennessee?
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2019, 10:06:49 PM
How did that one work out for Tennessee?
sad...your area was quite. But my area had tornado warning plus other storms with rotation
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2019, 10:36:53 PM
sad...your area was quite. But my area had tornado warning plus other storms with rotation

Okay, let me rephrase. How did it perform relative to the hype?
Title: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2019, 10:40:52 PM
I give up.... im just glad were heading toward a active severe spring finally

After a couple of buckles of brief warm air, this pattern goes right back to where it is now on both GEFS and EPS. Granted 15 degrees below normal looks different in mid to late March than now... but the overall pattern wants to migrate back to a central trough.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 05, 2019, 10:55:39 PM
0Z GFS at the end of its run has a '93 Superstorm rerun...  ::rofl::

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2019, 11:28:38 PM
Bruce called the event two weeks ago and, Iím inclined to listen to him this time too.

Hardly but listen your heart out. Its going to rain in the next 20 days, watch and see....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2019, 07:42:16 AM
SPC:
Quote
In the meantime, widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast
   to expand across a large area from eastern portions of the central
   and southern Plains early Day 4, eastward/northeastward across the
   Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through
   Sunday morning.  Given the strength of this system, and the
   accompanying/strong kinematic field, risk for at least isolated
   severe storms remains evident -- including potential for damaging
   winds and some tornado risk.  However, a primary limiting factor
   appears likely to be limited CAPE (in part due to the widespread
   convective development).
As such, will maintain only 15% risk at
   this time, though strength of this system and accompanying
   deep-layer wind field warrants attention in future outlooks.

OHX:
Quote
As for the potential of strong to svr tstms Sat afternoon into
Sat night, latest SPC reasoning has almost all of mid state
expect Upper Cumberland Region in a 15% svr wx outlook for
this time period. Forecasted CAPE values presently will
potentially be a limiting factor, but given the strength of this
system, it is certainly not out of the question that some strong
tstms to a few svr tstms could be possible. Will highlight this
possibility in the morning HWO issuance. Again, this potential
system the result of a strong sfc low developing across the cntrl
plains by Sat morning with a sfc frontal system draped across the
deep south. This strong sfc low will move quickly into the cntrl
Great Lakes Region by Sun morning, dragging a strong cold front
across the mid state region. A negatively tilted significant upper
level trough will develop across the cntrl U.S in association
with a strong upper level low pressure system across the northern
plains supporting pronounced swly upper level flow. This upper
level low will become stacked vertically quite close to the sfc
low by Sun morning also, moving that pronounced upper level
troughing right across the mid state region too. This type of
synoptic setup generally brings at least an organized line of
tstms thru the mid state region.

BMX:
Quote
A more significant trough is expected to move across the
Intermountain West & eject into the Plains on Saturday. Given
ongoing return flow across the Southern Plains & lower Mississippi
River Valley (MRV), the more amplified trough will quickly establish
downstream height rises as theta-e advection ramps up along an
intensifying low-level jet (LLJ) west of the MRV. As a result, a
broad area of convective weather is expected to develop to our west
near the ArkLaTex & quickly move eastward as a transient shortwave
rotates around the primary trough axis undergoing negative tilt.
Thereafter, the ongoing thunderstorm activity is expected to move
along an associated surface front & LLJ axis & enter the western
portions of our forecast area as early as late Saturday afternoon.
Given the forecast intensity of the LLJ (40-60 kts at 850mb),
increased moisture & instability availability, as well westerly deep-
layer shear vectors of ~40-60 kts, any complex of thunderstorms will
maintain possible severe characteristics as they quickly move
eastward. Despite losing diabatic heating, overnight SBCAPE values
of 250-750 J/kg will be plenty considering the large scale deep-
layer forcing & ample kinetic wind energy with this system.
Therefore, will continue to advertise a Slight Risk across the
entire CWA as damaging winds & tornadoes are possible given forecast
hodograph curvatures & 0-3 km SRH values as high as 450-600 m2/s2.
Felt this was the plan of action for now & will be able to fine-tune
the severe risk area as we get closer to the event. Timing will
still be generally advertised as Saturday & Saturday night (&
possibly into Sunday morning), though changes to this will be
sharpened in that coming days also.

JAN:
Quote
Confidence continues to increase that a least a portion of the Lower
MS River Valley will be impacted by severe weather on Saturday as a
powerful storm system swings across the country. An upper trough
will cross the Rockies Friday night, becoming closed and negatively
tilted as it begins to approach the MS River Valley on Saturday.
Southerly flow will further increase across our region ahead of this
feature, pulling more moist, unstable air into the region from the
tropics. Although the region will remain removed from the main
surface low and the better upper level height falls, there should
still be enough forcing, especially in the north, to support severe
weather. Impressive 0-6 km shear values ranging between 50-70 kts
and MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 j/kg will help support a severe
weather risk further south into the ArkLaMiss. Looking at the latest
CIPs Analog guidance, each of the top 8 analogs for Saturday support
severe weather in or near our region. The main threats to our region
on Saturday will be damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. These threats
will be advertised by a slight risk in our latest HWO.

Meh.  Not impressed.  Again, there will undoubtedly be some warnings along the line due to the amount of wind shear that'll be bantering about.  Given the 2-3" of additional rainfall, downed trees may become an issue.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 06, 2019, 08:33:18 AM
0Z GFS at the end of its run has a '93 Superstorm rerun...  ::rofl::

(Attachment Link)

I looked back at that run.  Wow, that really was almost a carbon-copy of that event.  It disappeared this morning. . .
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 06, 2019, 09:10:42 AM
12znam coming in hot... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2019, 10:28:26 AM
12znam coming in hot... ::coffee::

If the warm sector can establish itself before crapvection overtakes it, there could be an improved parameter space W of the TN River.  Still not seeing an established TOR threat, though.  See what the NAM3 does with it later tonight.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: mamMATTus on March 06, 2019, 11:53:52 AM
Honestly not seeing much of a threat with the latest 12z runs of GFS/NAM.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 06, 2019, 01:54:05 PM
Much like the last system, there may not be widespread severe weather, but the widespread strong winds could be as damaging.  Looks like another weekend of 50+ wind gusts.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2019, 08:45:35 PM
The NAM would be a more ominous event for our general area versus the GFS.  Usually, the NAM is overkill, but it if is not or the GFS and/or Euro trend to it then we will really need to watch our area.

For now, I am thinking a weakening QLCS with some severe threat with the worst of the threat centered in Southern Arkansas, but if the NAM were to verify we would be facing a greater magnitude threat.  Still got plenty of time to watch it. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 07:03:36 AM
No end in sight of the wet times according to the 6Z GFS.  It puts most of middle and east TN in the bulls-eye of additional heavy rainfall with more than 5" possible over the next 10 days. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 07:15:19 AM
Spc  seems think west Tennessee n part Tennessee valley  will have the best chance of severe weather now Saturday ... look for a 30 percent zone in tomorrow update ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 07, 2019, 07:42:13 AM
No end in sight of the wet times according to the 6Z GFS.  It puts most of middle and east TN in the bulls-eye of additional heavy rainfall with more than 5" possible over the next 10 days.
00Z Euro has 4-5" here just by Monday morning. I didn't go any further than that.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 08:05:24 AM
00Z Euro has 4-5" here just by Monday morning. I didn't go any further than that.

I don't think I can remember such a long, extremely wet pattern as this one has been.  It actually started after our mini-drought ended in early 2017.  We've had two wet summers back to back ('17 & '18), and since October we've been consistently well-above normal in rainfall.  At some point, the pendulum has to swing back the other way, but I don't see that happening anytime soon.  Hopefully, it won't swing as far to dry as we've been wet, or we'll have two+ years of extreme drought.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 07, 2019, 08:29:17 AM
It's a good thing we caught a break with the cold pattern.

Cold weather keeps us safe from precip these days. When it turns colder, that's a guarantee to halt the wet pattern. (tic)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 08:35:58 AM
Spc appears be putting lot stock in the nam model ...it establishes  pretty stout eml which helps clear out the crap convection our ahead the trough ... gfs and and euro seem be caving toward the nam... short range stuff going be interesting to watch for trends ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 10:46:17 AM
12Z GFS not looking good if you are sick of heavy rain.  It shows a system stalling out around the mid-state area near the middle of the month, dropping copious amounts of water. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 12:20:34 PM
Appears 12zgfs has lowered the slp on this system a bit .... nam still holding to a fairly good severe threat for most midsouth ... gfs starting cave toward nam bit more ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 07, 2019, 12:29:39 PM
That middle of the week system looks to be quite the concerning flood/severe weather double threat.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 01:42:40 PM
That middle of the week system looks to be quite the concerning flood/severe weather double threat.

Very much so.  Low pressure heads off into the Great Lakes, leaving the cold front to stall right over the middle of TN with a southwest flow paralleling the front.  Looks like waves of very heavy rain and strong storms for multiple days.  Scary, considering how high the lakes and rivers are now, and our saturated ground.  Recipe for disaster. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 07, 2019, 01:47:13 PM
System mid next week looking like a multiple day severe outbreak potential for sure ...

Post Merge: March 07, 2019, 03:03:45 PM
Interesting afd from Little Rock disscusion  just updated. ...  tried pasting main part ... but didnít work lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 07, 2019, 03:28:06 PM
My one moment of excitement for this spring provided by these horrible models.

(https://i1.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2019030712_057_35.79--90.18.png)

Now back to reality that this won't happen and it will be 58 and rain saturday here in NEA.


Post Merge: March 07, 2019, 03:36:22 PM
I do find it funny that the models had that exact look for my area 3 days out two weeks ago.  Ended up being nothing close to that.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: justinmundie on March 07, 2019, 05:32:37 PM
System mid next week looking like a multiple day severe outbreak potential for sure ...

Post Merge: March 07, 2019, 03:03:45 PM
Interesting afd from Little Rock disscusion  just updated. ...  tried pasting main part ... but didnít work lol

Thatís what it looks like to me as well, especially down in central ms and Alabama. Broad trough with multiple pieces of energy rounding the base and a solid warm sector.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 07, 2019, 05:43:33 PM
18Z GFS continues the worrisome trend of a stalled front bringing with it very heavy rain to middle Tennessee over the next 10 days (most of it falls late next week).  It shows 5-8" in areas from the Plateau westward to Nashville.  West TN gets some impressive amounts as well, while east TN seems to escape the brunt of it. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2019, 04:19:06 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1552040278306)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 08, 2019, 07:06:00 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1552040278306)

Meg has a great handle on this- very conditional. Shear is plentiful- instability may not line up with with best dynamics. Could be explosive discrete development in the enhanced areas- or maybe nothing at all. Maybe today will shed more light with instability recovery.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 08, 2019, 07:31:31 AM
The euro is on its own showing 4-6Ē of rain over NE AL, NW GA, and SE TN. Much lower amounts shown on the GFS. Local guys are calling for 1-2Ē here. Somebody is going to be very wrong.
EDIT: above amounts are only for this weekend. All models agree on even more heavy rain next week.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Flash on March 08, 2019, 07:36:38 AM
6z GFS hints at some sneaky lift in west KY. Could be a combo of diurnal heating/mixing/lapse rates? STP values seem higher just east of the current 'enhanced risk' as outlined by SPC. Still, I think if the SPC is going to adjust the 'Enhanced Risk', it will be to the north. Otherwise, not seeing much reason for excitement east of the TN River. Saving my gas $ for the next 'Moderate Risk'.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 08:11:07 AM
Meg has a great handle on this- very conditional. Shear is plentiful- instability may not line up with with best dynamics. Could be explosive discrete development in the enhanced areas- or maybe nothing at all. Maybe today will shed more light with instability recovery.

Evidenced perfectly by the CIPS analogs.  Some have severe reports, others have squadoosh.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/29wwmzk.png)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 11:41:45 AM
Enhanced risk got expanded north....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 08, 2019, 11:43:15 AM
3k NAM doesnít look all that impressive for redevelopment tomorrow afternoon.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 11:43:38 AM
Enhanced risk got expanded north....

(http://i65.tinypic.com/2u7t5zc.jpg)

Quote
...Eastern OK/TX into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys...
   Complicated forecast scenario exists for Saturday morning into
   afternoon across the region. An intense shortwave trough located
   over the southern Plains Saturday morning will quickly eject
   northeast toward the mid-MS Valley region by 00z. As this occurs,
   subsidence on the back side of the wave and midlevel dry-slot will
   move over portions of the lower MS Valley region, perhaps limiting
   convective development from midday into the afternoon. Additionally,
   stronger forcing for ascent will quickly shift northeast toward the
   mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys by midday. Additionally, widespread showers
   and thunderstorms, will be ongoing at the beginning of the period
   across much of the warm sector. Some strong to severe storms are
   possible early from far eastern OK/TX, spreading east/northeast
   through the morning.  As such, several flies in the ointment exist
   regarding where the greater severe threat will materialize.

   Given expected ongoing convection and widespread cloud cover across
   the warm sector, destabilization will be limited to generally 1000
   J/kg or less, with the axis of greatest instability expected from
   late morning into early afternoon across the MS River Delta region
   of eastern AR into far northwest MS/western TN and the MO
   Bootheel/far western KY vicinity, and the Enhanced risk area has
   been focused in this corridor. With the shortwave expected to
   quickly eject northeastward, stronger forcing for ascent is expected
   to exist further north than previously forecast. As such, a more
   isolated to widely scattered severe threat is expected across much
   of east TX into MS, and severe probs have been shifted northward to
   reflect this.

   Guidance continues to suggest a couple of waves of severe storms are
   possible. The initial morning convection associated with the strong
   low level jet and warm advection regime is expected to move across
   much of the lower MS Valley by midday. Guidance then suggests
   another round of convection will develop along the cold front during
   the afternoon from southern MO into northern AR, and perhaps more
   isolated development further south into northern AR and central MS.
   This semi-discrete convection will have the potential for damaging
   winds, hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon hours. Some
   upscale growth into bowing line segments is expected with eastward
   extent into the lower OH and TN Valley late in the afternoon and
   evening hours.

Sounds much more like a response to data suggesting a damaging wind threat than anything else.  Have to watch anything that barks ahead of the main line across MS. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 11:50:45 AM
Appears anywhere along n just south warm front has the potential produce tornado ....guess extended north as the better dynamics get pulled north with slp...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 08, 2019, 01:24:14 PM
Now Day 2 outlooks include this on the bottom:

Quote
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  10%     - Enhanced
   Wind:     30%     - Enhanced
   Hail:     30% SIG - Enhanced

That is the one for tomorrow's event.  This provides more insight into what the SPC is thinking about when it comes to hazards. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 08, 2019, 02:24:53 PM
Is it just me or is this thing playing out exactly like it did two weeks ago?
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 03:28:26 PM
OHX:

Quote
Location of the upper low has moved further southeast slightly,
but models have it a bit weaker as well. The trough will still be
largely negatively tilted by 00Z Sunday, with the axis over the
northern MS River Valley in the upper Midwest. The 850 mb LLJ
remains strong, with 50-70 knots out of the SSW ahead of the main
band of showers and thunderstorms. Severe parameters have not
changed much from previous runs except for the MUCAPE values have
decreased slightly as you go east of I-65. SPC has backed up the
slight risk to the west, however, it still remains for the I-65
corridor and west for tomorrow. Instability does fall off rapidly
after 00Z, so the severe threat may be limited to just a few hours
after sunset. Wind shear remains strong, both for 0-6km deep
layer shear at 50-80 knots and 0-1 km shear 40 to 50 knots. 0-3km
helicity is holding at 300-600 m2/s2, and evident in hodographs
per model soundings showing strong curvature in the low levels.
The main threats remain damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, some
hail, and flash flooding with any heavy rain during short time
periods.

Concerns/limitations for this event remain in place as mentioned
in yesterday's discussion. First, there may be 2 main bands of
showers and thunderstorms suggested by some CAM guidance, with
the question of how much of the atmosphere will be worked over by
the first round and limiting the second round. Morning showers
before the better instability moves in during the afternoon may
work over the area a bit, and could decrease the coverage of
strong to severe thunderstorms. Second, many soundings show a
stable shallow boundary layer, which may result in elevated
instability and may decrease the overall severe threat. Storms
that are rooted with surface instability will have much higher
chances for stronger winds reaching the surface, as well as the
potential for tornadic development. However, with the strong shear
in place, strong LLJ, and decent instability during the afternoon
and evening, both rounds of showers and thunderstorms will have
the potential for severe thunderstorms before the environment
weakens later in the evening.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2019, 04:11:56 PM
MEG

Quote
As the warm front surges north by 15Z. A second round of
thunderstorm activity will begin to push in from the west ahead of
a pre-frontal trof. This activity will quickly push east into
Middle Tennessee by midday as a third round of thunderstorm
activity will develop along the cold front. This activity will
push across the CWA during the late afternoon into the early
afternoon hours. This third round of activity is the one of most
concern as it will occur with the best instability. There have
been concerns that the potent shortwave would lift off to the
northeast before this convection would develop. The latest 18Z NAM
shows that the shortwave will be passing through the region just
as these thunderstorms will be developing. The Enhanced Risk has
been pushed to the north to align with the stronger forcing for
ascent than the previous DAY 2 issued early this morning. Greatest area
of concern for severe thunderstorms with the possibility of
tornadoes will be across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel
into Northwest Tennessee. South of this area, there remains
questions on how far removed from the forcing will the
thunderstorms still be able to become severe. The 12Z NSSL WRF
and 12Z HRRR show a vigorous line tracking across North
Mississippi while other CAM models show limited development south
of Interstate 40. Thus a lot of questions remain about tomorrow
and a lot it just comes down to timing of the shortwave. Stay
tuned for forecasts updates with the latest information.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 08, 2019, 04:25:36 PM
Dejavu all over again. Every single model has once again grossly underestimated qpf today. Iíve got 0.65Ē in the bucket. Looks like the UK was the closest to being correct, but it was still low. Even the euro, which has by far the heaviest rains this weekend, is way behind.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 06:13:39 PM
Each run of the hrrr is looking more almarming for tomorrow . Here done great job in the event last weekend ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 06:20:58 PM
Each run of the hrrr is looking more almarming for tomorrow . Here done great job in the event last weekend ...

For once, I'd love for you to give specifics and not abstract postings.  Not everyone has the time to look at the model sites.  I know I don't.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 08, 2019, 06:23:21 PM
For once, I'd love for you to give specifics and not abstract postings.  Not everyone has the time to look at the model sites.  I know I don't.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/a1eb95c164d3a7343ad72f42e53ea1d8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/ccaccd5af41ce2f5c82dc64e54eda96e.jpg)

Thatís the extended HRR- and we know it can be fickle. Simulated radar tomorrow afternoon plus cape. It hasnít even hit the short term more reliable HRR yet
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 08, 2019, 06:27:58 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/a1eb95c164d3a7343ad72f42e53ea1d8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/ccaccd5af41ce2f5c82dc64e54eda96e.jpg)

Thatís the extended HRR- and we know it can be fickle. Simulated radar tomorrow afternoon plus cape. It hasnít even hit the short term more reliable HRR yet

Verbatim, I'd be concerned with those "tail end Charlie's".  The embedded convection doesn't concern me too much.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 06:29:18 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/a1eb95c164d3a7343ad72f42e53ea1d8.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190309/ccaccd5af41ce2f5c82dc64e54eda96e.jpg)

Thatís the extended HRR- and we know it can be fickle. Simulated radar tomorrow afternoon plus cape. It hasnít even hit the short term more reliable HRR yet
thanks. Helping me curt.  Couldnít post image ... dang it
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 08, 2019, 06:34:14 PM
Those SE Arkansas/North Mississippi tail-end storms have the most potential if the HRRR is on to something and depending on instability potentially the storms out ahead of the mass in S IL/W KY.  Remember even though the HRRR did a good job last weekend in the Deep South it has a history of really overblowing things in our neck of the woods.  The Groundhog Day Bust of 2016 and the event two weekends ago are examples of that. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 08, 2019, 08:15:03 PM
again like the last event, don't see it being much of a tornadic threat here....west of tn river and south into Mississippi is what I am thinking

Post Merge: March 08, 2019, 08:16:12 PM
on a side note I honestly cannot remember the last time we had a significant threat without a rain shield prior to the event which hampers the entire event
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 08, 2019, 08:27:23 PM
again like the last event, don't see it being much of a tornadic threat here....west of tn river and south into Mississippi is what I am thinking

Post Merge: March 08, 2019, 08:16:12 PM
on a side note I honestly cannot remember the last time we had a significant threat without a rain shield prior to the event which hampers the entire event
hrrr really want to recover the atmosphere quite nicely for latter in afternoon ... hrrr been on a roll lately
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 08, 2019, 09:42:44 PM
Reed Timmer staying in Memphis tonight. He is targeting Eastern Arkansas and boot heel as it stands now.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Lcwthrnut on March 08, 2019, 10:22:24 PM
Saw a post on Facebook that said ďAt least when we spring forward tomorrow night we will lose an hour of rainfallĒ
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 08, 2019, 10:53:35 PM
Completely off topic but Reed was in Colorado yesterday. You have to pay me a bunch of money to do as much driving as he does.

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 12:02:40 AM
Huge change tonight

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1552111268956)

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1552111334477)

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif?1552111403821)


Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 12:13:54 AM
Quote
Day 1 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
   OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHEAST MS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
   gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through
   the early evening.  A strong tornado is possible from the confluence
   of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern
   Mississippi and northwest Alabama.

   ...Synopsis...
   A vigorous, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move
   from the central/southern Great Plains to the lower MO Valley by mid
   afternoon and subsequently into the Great Lakes after dark.  An
   intense 90kt 500mb speed max will translate east-northeast from OK
   into the lower OH Valley by early evening.  In the low levels, a
   surface low will develop northeast from central KS to the IA/IL/MO
   border by 6pm and into the central Great Lakes overnight.  A warm
   front over the Mid South will advance northward into the lower OH
   Valley by peak heating and a composite dryline/Pacific front will
   arc south-southeast from the low into eastern AR and southwestward
   into east TX by mid afternoon before sweeping east across the OH
   Valley late.

   ...Eastern OK/TX into the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys...
   A complex forecast scenario with associated uncertainty
   appropriately describes the risk for severe thunderstorms and
   possible tornadoes across portions of the Mid South into the lower
   OH Valley today.  At the start of the period, a couple of clusters
   of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across western
   portions of the larger-risk area in parts of northeast TX into
   eastern OK/western AR.  Varying possible solutions are evident in
   model data whether all or parts of this activity moves downstream
   with intermittent intensification into the MS Valley during the day
   or whether some of this activity weakens on the southern portion
   near the Ark-La-Tex during the late morning.  Hail, wind, and
   perhaps a tornado or two are possible with the early-day storms over
   the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.

   Farther east, an adequately moist/destabilizing warm sector will
   spread north and northeast in wake of the warm front with surface
   dewpoints ranging from near 60 degrees F in the lower OH Valley to
   the middle 60s farther south into TN/AR/MS/AL.  Model guidance
   correspondingly indicates weaker buoyancy will exist farther north
   (MLCAPEs at or below 500 J/kg north of the OH river to 750-1250 J/kg
   farther south) but extreme low-level shear.  Hodographs become very
   large by early-mid afternoon with flow increasing from 70-90kt in
   the 850-500mb layer over the northern half of the Enhanced Risk
   area.  It seems plausible some attempts at storm development will
   occur during the afternoon near the leading edge of the mid-level
   dry slot.  If the stronger updrafts become sustained, they will
   likely evolve into supercells with tornado potential.  A corridor of
   possibility for supercell tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears
   greatest from the OH/MS confluence southward into northern portions
   of MS on the trailing portion of large-scale ascent moving away from
   the area.  As storms encounter weaker buoyancy farther east and
   northeast during the evening, a transition to linear structures
   capable primarily of damaging winds may occur.

   ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/09/2019
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 12:17:30 PM
12Z GFS says we aren't done with winter just yet.  Several cold shots appear on the horizon after mid month, and more frosts and freezing temperatures appear possible, if not likely.  We may even see snow flying from time to time.

But after a cold late March, April appears warmer, and possibly stormy.  Some long range models show a warm east U.S., and cold lingering in the High Plains and Rockies.  That spells an active severe season in April, and a polar opposite to what we saw last year.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 10, 2019, 12:23:13 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190310/c927a67e091693eaf1b39abc49ee6eab.jpg)

This wonít help to get things very warm quickly.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 10, 2019, 12:35:12 PM
12Z GFS says we aren't done with winter just yet.  Several cold shots appear on the horizon after mid month, and more frosts and freezing temperatures appear possible, if not likely.  We may even see snow flying from time to time.

But after a cold late March, April appears warmer, and possibly stormy.  Some long range models show a warm east U.S., and cold lingering in the High Plains and Rockies.  That spells an active severe season in April, and a polar opposite to what we saw last year.
preach it brother....

Post Merge: March 10, 2019, 12:40:39 PM
12Z GFS says we aren't done with winter just yet.  Several cold shots appear on the horizon after mid month, and more frosts and freezing temperatures appear possible, if not likely.  We may even see snow flying from time to time.

But after a cold late March, April appears warmer, and possibly stormy.  Some long range models show a warm east U.S., and cold lingering in the High Plains and Rockies.  That spells an active severe season in April, and a polar opposite to what we saw last year.
been reading some thoughts over America wx ... some severe experst calling for a active severe eather season april to mid may...some thoughts from most saying calling least one violent outbreak across south... before things get active in the plains later... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 10, 2019, 02:33:28 PM
One thing we all should have learned last several years is the wx wonít be predictable.  Anything past 5 days is going to change.  I donít believe in any LR or MR forecast.  The models have no clue what they are doing.  From the MJO to the PNA to NAO to AO to Who knows what we be said next is affecting the wx patterns.  Bottom line to me is only pay attention to no more than 3 days. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 03:03:47 PM
I'm lovin' it.  Today's weather, that is.  It's whetting my appetite for more.  I hope we have some perfect 70's through most of April into May, before the summer heat sets in. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 10, 2019, 03:58:12 PM
I'm lovin' it.  Today's weather, that is.  It's whetting my appetite for more.  I hope we have some perfect 70's through most of April into May, before the summer heat sets in.

Same. If we arenít going to get snow, then my next most favorite weather is sunny with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2019, 04:47:55 PM
Same. If we arenít going to get snow, then my next most favorite weather is sunny with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Outside of winter weather, spring and fall (the transition seasons) are my favorite.  Unfortunately, the transition time seems to be shrinking. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 10, 2019, 05:49:46 PM
+PNA and the expected MJO should keep us in some cooler than normal weather after this week.  The +PNA will probably last through my trip out west (just because lol but at least that will give me some nice sunny weather). That kinda matches with El-Nino springtime conditions as well as they tend to feature active late-April/May periods severe wise. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 10, 2019, 08:42:09 PM
Going to see a massive Colorado cyclone on Wed and Thurs. Looks like northeast Colorado to South Dakota could get 20-30 inches of snow with 60 mph gusts.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 10, 2019, 08:59:04 PM
Going to see a massive Colorado cyclone on Wed and Thurs. Looks like northeast Colorado to South Dakota could get 20-30 inches of snow with 60 mph gusts.
now. That is what you call a true blizzard  there... wow
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: NashRugger on March 10, 2019, 10:42:18 PM
Going to see a massive Colorado cyclone on Wed and Thurs. Looks like northeast Colorado to South Dakota could get 20-30 inches of snow with 60 mph gusts.
Classic Colorado Low track and bombing out and occluding rapidly, then filling as it moves towards/into the Midwest.

This is the Front Range's prime time of year for big snows.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on March 11, 2019, 04:27:11 AM
We spent the weekend in northern VA, which meant driving in snow almost the whole way from Knoxville on Friday and watching it accumulate nicely on Friday night, followed by everything melting on Saturday.  It wasn't much, but like most of the rest of the board is as much as I've seen this season.

But, this really isn't a snow post, which is why it's in the spring thread.  On Friday, a loaded barge (about 1,000 tons of material) broke loose below Fort Loudon Dam and traveled several miles downstream, being caught just 600 yards from a collision with a bridge on I-75.  Obviously that kind of impact could structurally compromise a bridge and they had the interstate closed for a period of time until the barge was under control.  This happened because of the incredibly high flow rate below Fort Loudon Dam, an environment we're likely to see throughout the Tennessee River system through the spring as we stay wet with already full reservoirs.  Severe outbreaks get lots of press, and I admit to getting excited and watching them unfold, but this barge incident highlights the multitude of problems we may see from the incredible volume of water that has fallen on our region over the past several months, combined with what may still come in the spring.

An original article about the barge incident is available here https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/local/2019/03/10/what-happened-friday-nights-runaway-barge-loudon-county-i-75-bridge/3123557002/ for anybody who may be interested.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2019, 08:54:41 AM
2 days ago models said sunny and mid 60ís for Monday.  Well obviously that is not gonna happen.  Low 50ís and rain.  Models are useless these days it seems.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2019, 09:00:28 AM
Thankfully, the models were wrong about Wednesday's extreme heavy rain event they were showing last week with a stalled front.  While we'll see rain later this week, it's nothing out of the ordinary for March.

West TN looks to receive the heaviest amounts in the next 7 days, while eastern areas see an inch or less. 

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1552312572)

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 11, 2019, 09:01:11 AM
No offense, Matthew, but I find many of your posts to be unreasonably negative. I'm no meteorologist, but I wouldn't argue models are useless at all just because they can't always predict the future.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2019, 09:06:31 AM
No offense, Matthew, but I find many of your posts to be unreasonably negative. I'm no meteorologist, but I wouldn't argue models are useless at all just because they can't always predict the future.

Let me correct my statement.  Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 11, 2019, 09:17:18 AM
Let me correct my statement.  Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days.

 ::pondering:: That's a safe bet in the winter season. 2018-2019 was painful for snow lovers and model watchers. It was like the State Farm commerical with the fisherman dangling the dollar in front of us and jerking it away when we tried to snatch it. We'd kill for even just a 1" event and couldn't get it. ::rant::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2019, 09:33:13 AM
Let me correct my statement.  Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days.

There was a huge shift in your outlook as winter progressed.  And I get it.  This winter left many of us feeling jaded and disappointed.  And long-range models sucked this year. 

Nevertheless, our current weather models are the best we've got, and the best fallible humans can come up with to predict future events in a dynamic and very chaotic system like Earth's weather.  While far from perfect, or even good at times, they haven't been around that long in reality.  Go back 50 years and look at what forecasters had to use.  Tomorrow's weather was hard to forecast back then, and you could forget 3-5 days. 

Having said that, I do understand your frustration with models and long range forecasts after this winter.  We all had a bitter pill to swallow as winter progressed and our high hopes were dashed on the rocks of disappointment.  But, all we can do is let it go and hope for something better next year. 

In the meantime, have some ice cream.  It always makes me feel better.   ;)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: NashRugger on March 11, 2019, 09:41:53 AM
The winter failed because of me. I moved to St. Louis on January 4th and a week later 11" got dumped. I took it with me, sorry about it.  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JHart on March 11, 2019, 10:05:43 AM
The winter failed because of me. I moved to St. Louis on January 4th and a week later 11" got dumped. I took it with me, sorry about it.  ::evillaugh::

Or, perhaps, St. Louis only got eleven inches because you were there.   ::guitar::

Perspective, like commas, matters.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 11, 2019, 11:36:37 AM
This winter didn't have much effect on me because, honestly, I think I've been jaded for years when it comes to winter weather. I never really felt it coming into this winter... and, I never really bought into any of the optimistic assessments earlier on. It's just par for the course.

I guess I'm getting to an age when I realize life is too short to dwell on things like that. If we ever get another nice, big snowfall again, then I hope to enjoy that when the time comes. Until then, life goes on.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 11, 2019, 12:14:52 PM
I left my dogs outside today. Wasnít expecting rain at all.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 11, 2019, 12:50:46 PM
Thursday looks stormy. I'm wishful for some interesting severe weather on that day.

After that, any severe threat is marginal until late in the month. It will feel less like spring and more like November come time for the equinox. Fortunately, we are likely to dry out a bit along with the cooler air.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2019, 02:02:52 PM
There was a huge shift in your outlook as winter progressed.  And I get it.  This winter left many of us feeling jaded and disappointed.  And long-range models sucked this year. 

Nevertheless, our current weather models are the best we've got, and the best fallible humans can come up with to predict future events in a dynamic and very chaotic system like Earth's weather.  While far from perfect, or even good at times, they haven't been around that long in reality.  Go back 50 years and look at what forecasters had to use.  Tomorrow's weather was hard to forecast back then, and you could forget 3-5 days. 

Having said that, I do understand your frustration with models and long range forecasts after this winter.  We all had a bitter pill to swallow as winter progressed and our high hopes were dashed on the rocks of disappointment.  But, all we can do is let it go and hope for something better next year. 

In the meantime, have some ice cream.  It always makes me feel better.   ;)

I agree Jaycee.  Models do help with near term.  I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days.  The models are not able to understand all the changes because it takes human input to help them understand.  We donít understand what is happening ourselves.  The models for some reason have a cold bias these days.  Only to be warmer as we get within 2-3 days.  I see us slightly cooler to near normal when March ends.  I can tolerate 55-60 and sunny.  Just no 40ís and rain please.  Soccer is much more enjoyable wo that! 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2019, 02:10:18 PM
I agree Jaycee.  Models do help with near term.  I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days.  The models are not able to understand all the changes because it takes human input to help them understand.  We donít understand what is happening ourselves.  The models for some reason have a cold bias these days.  Only to be warmer as we get within 2-3 days.  I see us slightly cooler to near normal when March ends.  I can tolerate 55-60 and sunny.  Just no 40ís and rain please.  Soccer is much more enjoyable wo that!

The models sure screwed up today's forecast.  We've had a half inch of rain on a day it wasn't supposed to rain at all here.  Now that's model madness.   :o
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 11, 2019, 04:25:46 PM
Our mid-week storm may be better known as "An American Wind Machine" versus any type of water attraction.   

The WPSD in house model showed 50MPH+ winds in NW TN and Western KY on Thursday and its expansive potentially sub 975MB strength suggests a very potent cyclone and a whole lot of wind advisories and high wind warnings needed across the country.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 11, 2019, 05:30:00 PM
Our mid-week storm may be better known as "An American Wind Machine" versus any type of water attraction.   

The WPSD in house model showed 50MPH+ winds in NW TN and Western KY on Thursday and its expansive potentially sub 975MB strength suggests a very potent cyclone and a whole lot of wind advisories and high wind warnings needed across the country.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190311/b3ff1af6412a738752d90b08579d3b30.jpg)

That **might** require a high wind warning. Itís just behind the front too
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: WXHD on March 11, 2019, 06:30:01 PM
I agree Jaycee.  Models do help with near term.  I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days.

As far as I know, the American Republican Party is the only political party in the whole world  that denies, demeans and refuses to acknowledge ďClimate Change.Ē Our global  climate may be changing, much of it may be beyond our control. But locally, pollution is driving it. No matter who you are, your stream, creeks, rivers and oceans that just a few generations ago were safe to drink from and eat from are polluted. Thatís changed and, those changes arenít cyclical. Not being able to drink water from the Mississippi River is very much ďMan Made.Ē Thereís a multi-billion dollar industry that does nothing but clean water and sell it to us in a plastic bottle. The by-product of that is just dirtier water. You can say that this season or that season was just ďdue to sunspots.Ē  But, sunspots arenít why we have lead in our water, theyíre  not why we have pharmaceuticals in our water and, theyíre surely not the reason we have air pollution. You and I are why we have these problems. And, you and I have to change. I know that wind and solar energy arenít ďfreeĒ but, coal and oil are doing nothing but getting rarer and more expensive. Anyone who doesnít adapt is going to die and, our country is powerful enough to take the whole human species with. We are also, as individuals, numerous enough to bind together and make a difference.

More of the same ainít going to help us. When you get a chance for your voice to be heard, be loud.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Icestorm on March 11, 2019, 06:56:54 PM
Wow someone needs a chill pill, in the end no matter what anyone says or does, we all will die, nothing will stop that. 😆
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Charles L. on March 11, 2019, 07:13:22 PM
Wow someone needs a chill pill, in the end no matter what anyone says or does, we all will die, nothing will stop that. 😆

Youíd make an excellent motivational speaker. Iíd pay money to hear ya!
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 11, 2019, 07:21:08 PM
(https://i.gifer.com/JNs.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Drifter49 on March 11, 2019, 07:26:50 PM
now. That is what you call a true blizzard  there... wow

Hmmm I may have to get some of that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 11, 2019, 08:44:24 PM
https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/ (https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: WXHD on March 11, 2019, 09:11:16 PM
(https://i.gifer.com/JNs.gif)

I will upvote that every single time.

Post Merge: March 11, 2019, 09:33:33 PM
https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/ (https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2019/03/07/greenpeace-founder-global-warming-hoax-pushed-corrupt-scientists-hooked-government-grants/)


ďMoore noted how ďgreenĒ companies parasitize taxpayers via favorable regulations and subsidies ostensibly justified by the aforementioned narrativeís claimed threats, all while enjoying propagandistic protection across news media.Ē

 ::drowning::



Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 12, 2019, 09:48:27 AM
FWIW- SPC does have a slight risk for parts of Mid and West TN on Thursday.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 12, 2019, 09:57:50 AM
I think it's been six months or better since I've seen these dark browns over Tennessee.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 12, 2019, 12:14:41 PM
I think it's been six months or better since I've seen these dark browns over Tennessee.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)

Not often I like to see dryer than normal on the map, but that is a good thing to see.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 12, 2019, 12:18:55 PM
Not often I like to see dryer than normal on the map, but that is a good thing to see.
really... even if itís just for 5 days ....lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 12, 2019, 02:18:07 PM
Not often I like to see dryer than normal on the map, but that is a good thing to see.

I prefer wet over dry myself, but we've had enough wet lately.   We need a good long stretch of drier weather.

Local farmers have become concerned, as this is when they usually turn over the soil and fertilize to prepare for spring planting.  They can't even get into the fields right now, much less work the soil. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 12, 2019, 05:33:34 PM
We should of all been born and raised in the Northern Nebraska Panhandle.  We would get to see 18-24 inches of snow, 60-65MPH wind gusts, and even up to 1/4th of an inch of ice. 

I don't think anyone would ever complain about how bad the winter sucked after a storm like that.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 12, 2019, 05:41:00 PM
We should of all been born and raised in the Northern Nebraska Panhandle.  We would get to see 18-24 inches of snow, 60-65MPH wind gusts, and even up to 1/4th of an inch of ice. 

I don't think anyone would ever complain about how bad the winter sucked after a storm like that.
that's about 10 years worth of winters for most of us... lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 13, 2019, 10:07:06 AM
After Thursday, the next 7 days appear relatively cool by March standards.  Frosts and near freezing temperatures look to occur over a big part of the area starting this weekend, and multiple days next week. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 13, 2019, 10:30:01 AM
After Thursday, the next 7 days appear relatively cool by March standards.  Frosts and near freezing temperatures look to occur over a big part of the area starting this weekend, and multiple days next week.
yeah. But overall models r backing off some on the colder temps ... slightly cooler times than late March standards ... nothing extreme thank god
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Matthew on March 13, 2019, 11:28:32 AM
Models have a cold bias these days.  Used to be only the CMC did.  When it gets with in 2-3 days they are usually much warmer.  I will take near 60 and sunny next week.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Curt on March 13, 2019, 04:20:22 PM
80 mph wind gusts at Denver Intl with heavy snow reported.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 13, 2019, 05:45:42 PM
Get ready for some wind.  This system is packin'  it. 

https://youtu.be/edKFsuiytCg (https://youtu.be/edKFsuiytCg)
Title: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 15, 2019, 07:14:02 AM
Though thankfully not much in TN so far, it seems like weíve started an active tornado season compared to previous years.

Things look stable for the next week.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 15, 2019, 07:34:54 AM
The "bomb" only dropped .28" of rain here overnight with little fanfare.  I think I saw a faint flash of distant lightning through sleepy eyes in the middle of the night, but that's about it. 

Appears we'll have a cool, but mostly dry week ahead, and one of the longest dry stretches we've seen since last October.  Several frosty nights look likely with lows near freezing Saturday through Wednesday over much of TN.  6-10 & 8-14 day outlooks keep us below normal rain-wise, so no more flooding rains on the horizon.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 15, 2019, 09:34:09 AM
The "bomb" only dropped .28" of rain here overnight with little fanfare.  I think I saw a faint flash of distant lightning through sleepy eyes in the middle of the night, but that's about it. 

Appears we'll have a cool, but mostly dry week ahead, and one of the longest dry stretches we've seen since last October.  Several frosty nights look likely with lows near freezing Saturday through Wednesday over much of TN.  6-10 & 8-14 day outlooks keep us below normal rain-wise, so no more flooding rains on the horizon.
guess we need to enjoy the break... things look to ramp up end of the month... going into april
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 15, 2019, 09:56:45 AM
guess we need to enjoy the break... things look to ramp up end of the month... going into april

With a weak El Nino possibly sticking around through summer, I doubt we'll have many long dry stretches this spring.  So, yeah, best enjoy this one. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 16, 2019, 06:24:29 AM
I am glad we have this cool, dry pattern for the next week... besides the chance to dry out we look to dip below freezing a few nights. Good to still see that in mid March as it should slow down the emergence of flowering vegetation to give things a better chance in case we get a late freeze later on.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JHart on March 16, 2019, 08:17:29 AM
I am expecting a late freeze --- my grandparents used to say "Winter lingers when Easter is late."  As a kid in central Arkansas, I remember the 'old folks' planting their corn and beans on Good Friday every year.

I'm sure they ended up with bean-cicles from time to time, but I don't recall it ever happening.  :)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 16, 2019, 11:11:51 AM
Buds on a lot of trees are ďpregnantĒ... and some redbuds and a few other flowering trees have started. Hopefully, not the fruit trees yet.

Bradford pears are flowering, but we donít care about those... in fact the more damage to be done to them, the better.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2019, 12:14:38 PM
Looks like on model guiadance and ensembles ... 26 27 th period got a nice amp system to produce widespread  severe...  just looking down road bit....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 16, 2019, 02:44:56 PM
For now, we get a week of nice weather.

The 8-14 day and potentially beyond pattern looks a bit concerning with troughing undercutting the western USA ridge.  Our active subtropical jet will be a concern as well.  It is a pattern that is favorable for the return of stormy weather if it verifies, but for now, it is time to enjoy our break.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 16, 2019, 04:41:04 PM
River Flood Warning issued for Davidson County.

The tears of Big Blue Nation are raging.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2019, 05:39:03 PM
River Flood Warning issued for Davidson County.

The tears of Big Blue Nation are raging.  ::rofl::
post of year. .... go big orange ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 16, 2019, 06:27:25 PM
If we can't beat you all in basketball or football we will beat you all in snowfall. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 16, 2019, 06:48:06 PM
If we can't beat you all in basketball or football we will beat you all in snowfall.

How our teams played today could very well escort both of us to Minneapolis. Aside from the subpar SEC officiating, that game was incredible to watch.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2019, 07:01:29 PM
How our teams played today could very well escort both of us to Minneapolis. Aside from the subpar SEC officiating, that game was incredible to watch.
yeah it had a final 4 feel to it...

Post Merge: March 16, 2019, 07:05:17 PM
If we can't beat you all in basketball or football we will beat you all in snowfall.
sounds like you beat us in getting tornadoes 🌪 also
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 17, 2019, 08:13:22 AM
Got down to 29 this morning & looks like several more frosts and/or freezes possible over the next 5 days. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 17, 2019, 08:21:44 AM
Yeah- heavy frost here- about as white as it got here all winter...
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JHart on March 17, 2019, 08:35:32 AM
After protecting my bay tree in the garage all season, I set it outside last week to get some sun and lost all of its buds to last nights  frickn' unpredicted 24F.  Words can't describe how much I hate this winter.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 17, 2019, 12:35:24 PM
The long range pattern of Southwest troughing and the active Pacific Firehose (6 to 16 days out) on the 12Z GFS will make the following people happy:

- BRUCE
- Nashville WX if he is out West
- Park City, Utah
- Reed Timmer
- Sierra Nevada Mountain Range
- Vail, CO
- Vertical Video Stars who scream "CENSORED there is a CENSORED nader down it done lift that cow over there by grandpa we goin die but I gotta put it on Facebook live"   
- Wind Farms in the Plains   

Title: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 17, 2019, 01:36:33 PM
The long range pattern of Southwest troughing and the active Pacific Firehose (6 to 16 days out) on the 12Z GFS will make the following people happy:

- BRUCE
- Nashville WX if he is out West
- Park City, Utah
- Reed Timmer
- Sierra Nevada Mountain Range
- Vail, CO
- Vertical Video Stars who scream "CENSORED there is a CENSORED nader down it done lift that cow over there by grandpa we goin die but I gotta put it on Facebook live"   
- Wind Farms in the Plains

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/4c/55/de4c55ae7996e4333b3ca889cb9ae120.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 17, 2019, 02:27:23 PM
Sassy and classy  8) 

We have a nice string of nice days to enjoy before things go crazy again. Usually, in this pattern, the highs and lows are both underestimated because of clear skies and calmer winds really bring out the diurnal swings.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: memphishogfan on March 17, 2019, 02:52:48 PM
I could go for a month of this weekends weather. Did yard work all day yesterday and am enjoying a nice sunny and 65 day today.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 17, 2019, 02:53:45 PM
War Eagle !!!!!
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 17, 2019, 04:28:21 PM
I could go for a month of this weekends weather. Did yard work all day yesterday and am enjoying a nice sunny and 65 day today.

Saturday was a little chilly here, but today's 62 and blue sky was absolutely perfect!
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 17, 2019, 04:42:52 PM
War Eagle !!!!!

When your students live in off-campus trailer parks and your biggest tradition is throwing toilet paper in trees, I guess you need to win in something every once in a while

30-24
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 17, 2019, 09:57:24 PM
When your students live in off-campus trailer parks and your biggest tradition is throwing toilet paper in trees, I guess you need to win in something every once in a while

30-24
I was more happy with UT beating Kentucky than I was Auburn winning today. I think UT left it on on the court Saturday and it showed today.
It is evident that you have never been to Auburnís campus.One of the nicest ones around. We throw toilet paper and you paint a rock.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 17, 2019, 10:55:34 PM
Vols were gassed today. They are a bunch of 2 and 3 stars, and we have seen their ceiling against Kentucky.

Anywho, I didn't just make that up about Auburn students living in trailers- they live in literal trailers. It's a popular and affordable means of housing there. Thank goodness those twisters missed AU proper earlier this month.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/auburn/comments/60l3yo/admitted_veterinary_student_here_where_is_a/

http://gentillypark.com
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 18, 2019, 07:00:20 AM
Vols were gassed today. They are a bunch of 2 and 3 stars, and we have seen their ceiling against Kentucky.

Anywho, I didn't just make that up about Auburn students living in trailers- they live in literal trailers. It's a popular and affordable means of housing there. Thank goodness those twisters missed AU proper earlier this month.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/auburn/comments/60l3yo/admitted_veterinary_student_here_where_is_a/

http://gentillypark.com
if they can beat Kentucky 2 out 3... they could beat anybody .... got tough draw early with cincy possible looming ... game be played in Columbus Ohio... cincy is very under seeded also ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 18, 2019, 07:32:33 AM
In the realm of weather, it was below 32F here again this morning (30), and we might have at least 2 more nights of freezing temperatures in the foothills.  It could be the longest stretch of freezing weather at night outside of the short "Arctic outbreak" in January.  Considering it's mid-March, that shows what a terrible winter we've endured here. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 18, 2019, 09:19:13 PM
Look at the 12Z and 18Z GFS suite with its warm Southwestern USA and colder than normal SE after the March 25th/27th severe threat.  Pretty much did a flip in the long range. 

Whether that verifies who knows anymore especially when it comes to the GFS model suite.  If it does that Vertical Video Vinnie may not get as much coverage. 

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 19, 2019, 05:29:49 AM
If the GFS is to be believed we finally get the blocking that we have been looking for. Looks to be a cold end of March and start of April.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 19, 2019, 05:42:29 AM
Record flooding is occurring in Nebraska and other areas in the upper Midwest. Thereís a 70-mile stretch of interstate closed on I-29, the main route between Kansas City and Omaha. A nuclear power plant is cut off and is only accessible by helicopter to bring in supplies.

http://sandhillsexpress.com/featured-news/portions-of-interstate-29-closed-highway-2-closed-at-nebraska-city-missouri-river-bridge/

Of course, all that water has to eventually empty into the Mississippi.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 19, 2019, 06:58:56 AM
Yet another freeze this morning--down to 28.  On my way to work, I noticed temperatures as low as 25 in some open valleys.  One more night near or below freezing is being forecast IMBY tonight.  And another frost is certainly possible Friday night with lows in the mid-30's projected here. 

Considering the flooding T-Snow mentioned above heading down the Missouri & Mississippi Rivers, it's a very good thing the heavy rain here has stopped for now.  We don't need anymore runoff added to what's already heading our way.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 20, 2019, 07:13:41 AM
The equinox is at 4:58 PM CDT. Incidentally, there will also be a full moon tonight... first one to occur on the first day of spring in 19 years, for what thatís worth.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Coach B on March 20, 2019, 08:09:00 AM
Pretty good inversion this morning. I was much warmer than recent nights with a low of 33. Temp on the hill was 36 when I left but just down the road hit 25 along a lower field. Saw as low as 23 on the official obs.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: dwagner88 on March 20, 2019, 08:21:13 AM
I was colder this morning than yesterday during the freeze warning. 28 yesterday, 27 today.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 11:58:18 AM
I am hoping we get a good severe weather event coming up soon to track...as long as it doesn't hurt anybody or cause property damage....I am happy if it stays in wooded fields :). But there is some kind of adrenaline I get when a big severe event is forecast and REAL super cells occur...not the crapvection we have had the past few years...It is just fascinating to watch ( again as long as nobody is harmed ).

I will never forget the gallatin tornado day in 2006 when the SPC had our area under high risk and 60% possibility of a tornado and hatched area...Have never seen that again. I took that day more serious than any severe weather event in my life
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 12:09:18 PM
I am hoping we get a good severe weather event coming up soon to track...as long as it doesn't hurt anybody or cause property damage....I am happy if it stays in wooded fields :). But there is some kind of adrenaline I get when a big severe event is forecast and REAL super cells occur...not the crapvection we have had the past few years...It is just fascinating to watch ( again as long as nobody is harmed ).

I will never forget the gallatin tornado day in 2006 when the SPC had our area under high risk and 60% possibility of a tornado and hatched area...Have never seen that again. I took that day more serious than any severe weather event in my life
yeah ... those days pretty rare ... the ole color black tornado 🌪 signator.... remember that day very well

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 12:11:44 PM
Hey I wonder if you can find the disco on that ... love to go back read that from spc .... can someone please paste if they find it ... appreciate it
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 20, 2019, 12:18:01 PM
yeah ... those days pretty rare ... the ole color black tornado 🌪 signator.... remember that day very well

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 12:11:44 PM
Hey I wonder if you can find the disco on that ... love to go back read that from spc .... can someone please paste if they find it ... appreciate it

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060407_2000.html
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 12:21:51 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060407_2000.html
thanks. Bro.... that kind wording just gives me chills....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 01:28:29 PM
thanks. Bro.... that kind wording just gives me chills....

nice to know I am not the only one who obsesses about past high risk days and things like that LOL

another one I remember is the sequences of may 2003...I recall a tornado watch like 3 days in a row here in west middle tn...I was only 17 at the time so I am a bit foggy...I believe that was the Jackson TN F4? But the fact that it was day after day of moderate to high risk right around our area was quite frightening

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 01:37:56 PM
2006 april outbreak image....what was so wild was how EARLY in the day these super cells just exploded!

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7555/2052/1600/0407ww0162_radar.0.jpg
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 02:00:43 PM
nice to know I am not the only one who obsesses about past high risk days and things like that LOL

another one I remember is the sequences of may 2003...I recall a tornado watch like 3 days in a row here in west middle tn...I was only 17 at the time so I am a bit foggy...I believe that was the Jackson TN F4? But the fact that it was day after day of moderate to high risk right around our area was quite frightening

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 01:37:56 PM
2006 april outbreak image....what was so wild was how EARLY in the day these super cells just exploded!

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7555/2052/1600/0407ww0162_radar.0.jpg
that is correct.  Sunday nite may 3 2003 ef4 just mile half from my house.... only damage I got were a couple windows knocked out by the golf ball hail it contained ....

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:03:43 PM
Think last high risk day we have had was late May 2011... that event effected mostly the Ohio valley regions think.... course 2011 was probably last true violent spring south has had ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 20, 2019, 02:38:19 PM
that is correct.  Sunday nite may 3 2003 ef4 just mile half from my house.... only damage I got were a couple windows knocked out by the golf ball hail it contained ....

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:03:43 PM
Think last high risk day we have had was late May 2011... that event effected mostly the Ohio valley regions think.... course 2011 was probably last true violent spring south has had ....

March 2012, from what I can remember, was the last HIGH. If LCLs had been lower (caused by afternoon atmospheric mixing, IIRC), this one could've been really bad.  Supercell dropped tennis balls across I-40 into Dickson/Nashville.  Wall cloud spotted in Lavergne/Antioch.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk_20120302_2000.html
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 02:52:06 PM
march 2012 was last high risk I remember that included our viewing area....theat was the Henryville Indiana tornado F4 and several others in KY and also several other ones in Ms and Alabama that day , another one of those weird scenarios where 100 miles north it was devastating and to our south they got slammed yet most of TN was spared

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:54:31 PM
sorry eric...for some reason I didn't see your post lol. Also the april 2014 outbreak is another one where morning crapvection prevented us from having a really BIG outbreak here in Tennessee....happens a lot.

Lets not forget the 2010 floods were originally a high risk pds severe weather day however it just poured and poured and poured
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 03:12:08 PM
march 2012 was last high risk I remember that included our viewing area....theat was the Henryville Indiana tornado F4 and several others in KY and also several other ones in Ms and Alabama that day , another one of those weird scenarios where 100 miles north it was devastating and to our south they got slammed yet most of TN was spared

Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 02:54:31 PM
sorry eric...for some reason I didn't see your post lol. Also the april 2014 outbreak is another one where morning crapvection prevented us from having a really BIG outbreak here in Tennessee....happens a lot.

Lets not forget the 2010 floods were originally a high risk pds severe weather day however it just poured and poured and poured
may 2010 was the big yazoo city ms tornado 🌪....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 03:29:45 PM
may 2010 was the big yazoo city ms tornado 🌪....

that one was a biggie....Hattiesburg is another tornado that has some great video to watch.

I have a question I was under the weather for a week or two and didn't keep up with things as much as I would have liked....

the outbreak which had that large tornado in Lee county Alabama, did spc ever increase risk to moderate or did they just leave it at enhanced all day? IMO spc has had a bad spring so far and was wondering about that particular day because I didn't get to keep a track of it that day....if it was not upgraded to at least a Moderate risk then I consider that a fail on their part for that day, 40 tornadoes several ef2 , an ef3 and ef4
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2019, 03:40:08 PM
Pretty sure it stayed enhanced.... I agree with you
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 20, 2019, 03:42:59 PM
Might have posted before but here is an awesome write up on April 2 2006.

http://www.philip-lutzak.com/weather/meteo361/project_3.htm
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 20, 2019, 04:07:39 PM
Pretty sure it stayed enhanced.... I agree with you

again just an opinion, it leads to apathy among the casual average person when threats are not properly forecast...we all know how easy it can change through the day and understand...but the general public says "they cried wolf again" OR it gets under forecast such as the recent Alabama/Georgia outbreak then people really don't take it seriously at all.....it's hard
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 20, 2019, 04:17:01 PM
For you newcomers - and old timers that like to reminisce  - here's our thread for the April 7, 2006 event.

https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,99.210.html
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 20, 2019, 05:35:38 PM
Could be some "noteworthy" weather tomorrow.  Nothing extraordinary, but simply worthy of noticing.

Quote
Biggest concern will be the low freezing levels which should allow
for some wintry precip to mix in over mainly higher elevation areas.
There will likely even be some light snow accumulations over some of
the higher mountain peaks mainly above 4000 feet, and will continue
to mention this in the HWO. In addition, there will be some limited
convective energy available, so some stronger showers may bring some
pea size hail even in valley locations Thursday due to the low
freezing levels.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 20, 2019, 07:29:31 PM
The last High Risk was either 03/02/2012 (Northern Middle and Northeast TN), 5/25/2011 (West TN and West Middle TN) or 4/27/2011 (Southern Middle or Southeastern TN).

We are long overdue for a High Risk event as I believe we have the longest streak without a High Risk since they have been issued in the 1980s.  11/27/1994, 5/4 and 5/5/2003, 1/21/1999, 4/7/2006, and 2/5/2008 are also High Risk Days.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: schneitzeit on March 20, 2019, 08:13:48 PM
I'm surprised 16 April 1998 wasn't a high risk day. That outbreak produced the only EF5 in Tennessee as well as the Nashville tornado.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: NashRugger on March 20, 2019, 08:54:43 PM
that is correct.  Sunday nite may 3 2003 ef4 just mile half from my house.... only damage I got were a couple windows knocked out by the golf ball hail it contained
And later that night, early in the morning the next day, the north side of Murfreesboro got rocked, particularly from US 231 (Memorial Blvd) along De Jarnette Ln to near the rock quarry east of Hwy 96, were hit hard by hail larger than tennis balls embedded within a very destructive downburst. I was 15 at the time at Oakland HS and all the trees were stripped and shredded on their west and north faces, while the other side of De Jarnette, trees were stripped from west and south. Homes lost all windows and have siding beaten off and roofs pecked to bits.


Post Merge: March 20, 2019, 08:56:35 PM
may 2010 was the big yazoo city ms tornado 🌪....
That tornado happened the weekend BEFORE the big flood, on April 24th.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: ChrisPC on March 21, 2019, 07:28:53 AM
I remember the Yazoo City tornado well; my wife and I grew up near there. My wifeís cousin almost drove into the tornado. She and her kids got into a brick building just in time. Unfortunately, she passed away last year after a car accident.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 21, 2019, 08:18:47 AM
I'm surprised 16 April 1998 wasn't a high risk day. That outbreak produced the only EF5 in Tennessee as well as the Nashville tornado.


it was a high risk day
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 21, 2019, 08:19:54 AM
I remember the Yazoo City tornado well; my wife and I grew up near there. My wifeís cousin almost drove into the tornado. She and her kids got into a brick building just in time. Unfortunately, she passed away last year after a car accident.

I was actually in MS when that happened with my girlfriend at the time (now wife) and a group of friends in Oxford where she is from. I remember it being warm and humid, and the sun was shining. We were somewhere with the TV on with coverage out of Memphis for the storms further south in MS. I think the Yazoo City tornado had just happened.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 21, 2019, 08:25:55 AM
The last High Risk was either 03/02/2012 (Northern Middle and Northeast TN), 5/25/2011 (West TN and West Middle TN) or 4/27/2011 (Southern Middle or Southeastern TN).

We are long overdue for a High Risk event as I believe we have the longest streak without a High Risk since they have been issued in the 1980s.  11/27/1994, 5/4 and 5/5/2003, 1/21/1999, 4/7/2006, and 2/5/2008 are also High Risk Days.

some others are 4-8-98 for southern mid tn( the Birmingham f5 (I just happened to be in B-ham that day SCARY), the Nashville tornado outbreak, 2002 veterans day outbreak and the November outbreak in 2005 are also memorable since they happened so late in the year. We have had many more high risks than people realize I think

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Eric on March 21, 2019, 08:44:33 AM
SPC HIGH risk days...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 21, 2019, 08:48:26 AM
SPC HIGH risk days...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days

I think people will be surprised at how many the mid state has had....Veterans day 2002 , Nov 2005 and the 2006 outbreak are 3 that were particularly scary
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2019, 09:17:27 AM
The Sun is peeking out here, which makes the convective nature of the HRRR later this afternoon highly plausible for east TN.  No severe weather, but convective T-showers with hail are very possible.  And it would be a good day to head to the mountains, as the HRRR shows some pretty intense snow showers there later today.

Off work today, so maybe I should head up there and see what happens.  One last look at snow, in a winter I've only seen it twice.  Tempting.

Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 21, 2019, 09:41:48 AM
Happy official first full day of spring everyone....
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2019, 02:48:12 PM
My folks in London, KY just sent me a pick of their back deck covered in sleet.  Those showers are now moving into and through the plateau and into the valley.  The sun is out here now after the rain ended, adding to the instability, so we may see some interesting weather this evening. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: cgauxknox on March 21, 2019, 02:52:48 PM
We've got bright sunshine here at the moment but the clouds to the north/northwest are very dark.  I agree that this could be an interesting evening to watch for weather developing,  with some potential excitement that shouldn't be connected to much if any risk of real damage.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 21, 2019, 04:03:55 PM
We have had several years where we had at least 2 High Risks per year.  This is why this 7 or 8-year drought (depending on where you are at) is quite unusual.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 21, 2019, 04:35:52 PM
Nothing wrong with a Tornado drought.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: Thundersnow on March 21, 2019, 05:41:19 PM
Weather forecast for the foreseeable future looks cool to pleasantly mild... a couple of systems but nothing too gangbusters right now.

I think we should probably be okay with that.
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: StormNine on March 21, 2019, 09:02:06 PM
Weather forecast for the foreseeable future looks cool to pleasantly mild... a couple of systems but nothing too gangbusters right now.

I think we should probably be okay with that.

I am pretty cool with that.  Especially while we and areas upriver dry out.  Since I am getting on a plane next weekend it would be nice to not have too many delays or crazy turbulence.  It does look like things aren't as bad as they once appeared in the longer range (still may have one late March system to watch maybe). 

I still think the 2nd half of this spring has an above average threat for a severe weather sequence event due to the tendency at times to have SW USA troughing and our active jet stream pattern. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 22, 2019, 08:31:39 AM
We have had several years where we had at least 2 High Risks per year.  This is why this 7 or 8-year drought (depending on where you are at) is quite unusual.

agreed 100%. In our area going back to the 2011 april outbreak we had had a big rain shield a few hours before the event that prevents us from major outbreaks....it has happened so many times I cannot count....not saying it is a bad thing but just interesting that it keeps happening that way....also as I said yesterday the 2010 flood situation was a "high risk" severe day that turned into a rain shield also....quite interesting
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 22, 2019, 10:21:56 AM
agreed 100%. In our area going back to the 2011 april outbreak we had had a big rain shield a few hours before the event that prevents us from major outbreaks....it has happened so many times I cannot count....not saying it is a bad thing but just interesting that it keeps happening that way....also as I said yesterday the 2010 flood situation was a "high risk" severe day that turned into a rain shield also....quite interesting
the last really good severe outbreak I can recall that didnít have rain sheiild most day was the Super Tuesday event ... late that afternoon we had a really nice dry punch break through ... before the action began... the air really got un stable quick that evening
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: gcbama on March 22, 2019, 11:30:22 AM
the last really good severe outbreak I can recall that didnít have rain sheiild most day was the Super Tuesday event ... late that afternoon we had a really nice dry punch break through ... before the action began... the air really got un stable quick that evening

that one long track supercell that went from MS to KY fropped f2 damage 3 miles from me....you could hear it just over the hills here in lewis county

But just think april 2011....april 2014 were both potential disasters that we were spared from because of early morning/afternoon rains
Title: Re: Spring 2019
Post by: BRUCE on March 22, 2019, 11:40:26 AM
that one long track supercell that went from MS to KY fropped f2 damage 3 miles from me....you could hear it just over the hills here in lewis county

But just think april 2011....april 2014 were both potential disasters that we were spared from because of early morning/afternoon rains
it was a mcs came through late night early morning that screwed up the super 1974 outbreak for west Tennessee and east Arkansas ... but it set up outflow boundaries across middle and eastern Tennessee for a terrible situation we all know of course
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 23, 2019, 02:51:58 PM
Desert air has invaded east TN today with dewpoints in the teens.  Relative humidity is down to 10-15% with temps in the low 60's.  The atmosphere doesn't get much drier in these parts. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on March 24, 2019, 07:53:01 PM
Severe storms are firing up in MO and AR
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 24, 2019, 08:07:12 PM
I donít expect much around here. The DPs dropped down to 48 here this afternoon. Currently at 51. HRR continues to have a cluster of storms coming through around Memphis and north Mississippi
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 09:34:56 AM
Storms toppled the NBC production set of Bluff City Law overnight in downtown Memphis. Given the ďcoolĒ conditions I surprised at how fierce they got in the metro last night.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 09:36:27 AM
On to another topic....looks like the AMO might be finally flipping to negative. Itís been positive since 1996 and usually flips every 20-25 years. If its sustainable, it has lots of implications on climate over the next 2 decades.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on March 25, 2019, 09:54:32 AM
(https://media.tenor.com/images/3f11da33a1724b320fa7e24ad20b460b/tenor.gif)

Out of curiosity.  I know a negative AMO typically reduces the number of major tropical systems you have in a year, but what is its effects on Severe weather?

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 25, 2019, 11:13:48 AM
On to another topic....looks like the AMO might be finally flipping to negative. Itís been positive since 1996 and usually flips every 20-25 years. If its sustainable, it has lots of implications on climate over the next 2 decades.
we already gotten a situation thatís causing  implications on our climate....  itís called global warming ... thatís bad enough.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2019, 02:48:57 PM
On to another topic....looks like the AMO might be finally flipping to negative. Itís been positive since 1996 and usually flips every 20-25 years. If its sustainable, it has lots of implications on climate over the next 2 decades.

Now flip it!  Flip it good! 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 03:12:23 PM
we already gotten a situation thatís causing  implications on our climate....  itís called global warming ... thatís bad enough.

Really just intending to bring up the sensible effects of the AMO- not bring global warming or politics into play here. This is something that can be measured however.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/d7b4d1b733d445948e16941e6ea7dc99.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/1f3adc585c471242626f0195f8bbce64.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JHart on March 25, 2019, 05:11:20 PM
Now flip it!  Flip it good!

Well, thank you very much.  Now that's stuck in my head.  ::whistling::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Drifter49 on March 25, 2019, 05:13:43 PM
Now flip it!  Flip it good!




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 25, 2019, 05:28:33 PM



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
i hated that band with passion... wasnít my type music back then lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 25, 2019, 06:10:55 PM
Really just intending to bring up the sensible effects of the AMO- not bring global warming or politics into play here. This is something that can be measured however.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/d7b4d1b733d445948e16941e6ea7dc99.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190325/1f3adc585c471242626f0195f8bbce64.jpg)

Well just means no severe wx at all Bruce and either cold rains or cold and dry for the winters😂

#welcometotennessee
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Drifter49 on March 25, 2019, 06:31:55 PM
i hated that band with passion... wasnít my type music back then lol

Ah more of a culture club guy


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on March 25, 2019, 06:48:14 PM
Well just means no severe wx at all Bruce and either cold rains or cold and dry for the winters

#welcometotennessee

Negative AMO plus a negative PDO have displayed the coldest and snowiest periods for Tennessee by a long shot ie Ď60-Ď96. Yes- they are drier, but as Storm59 has mentioned....cold dry winters usually mean precip has a better shot at being wintry. Iím waiting on the full switch to a negative AMO before making any conclusions on where climate is headed.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Drifter49 on March 25, 2019, 06:49:54 PM
Negative AMO plus a negative PDO have displayed the coldest and snowiest periods for Tennessee by a long shot ie Ď60-Ď96. Yes- they are drier, but as Storm59 has mentioned....cold dry winters usually mean precip has w better shot at being wintry. Iím waiting on the full switch to a negative AMO before making any conclusions on where climate is headed.
I definitely could use some 70ís and 80ís winters. Especially 70ís.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on March 25, 2019, 07:16:26 PM
i hated that band with passion... wasnít my type music back then lol

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on March 25, 2019, 08:53:01 PM
WxSouth just mentioned a "significant weather event" for the southeast early next week. Not sure exactly what he's referencing there. A Gulf Low does appear to form early next week and move northeast but don't really see a severe threat right now.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 26, 2019, 06:54:57 AM
Ah more of a culture club guy


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I can see Bruce rockin' out to Karma Chameleon.   ::rofl::

Post Merge: March 26, 2019, 07:25:12 AM
In the realm of weather, Euro shows a brief cold shot late in the weekend with possible freezing weather by Monday morning.  Red Bud winter?  Mine are preparing for their show this week with buds one or two days from opening.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Nash_LSU on March 26, 2019, 07:49:49 AM
Middle TN is full on redbud winter right now, though it doesn't seem as cold as typical redbud winters. No complaints from me on that. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on March 26, 2019, 08:01:04 AM
I can see Bruce rockin' out to Karma Chameleon.

He's a man without conviction.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 26, 2019, 08:18:08 AM
He's a man without conviction.
dokken. Cinderella. Motley crew. Iron Maiden. Rush. Ozzy. Were some of my favorite 80 bands...then the 90s came Alice In Chains my favorite all time band ... followed by soundgarden. Nirvana...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on March 26, 2019, 08:47:08 AM
dokken. Cinderella. Motley crew. Iron Maiden. Rush. Ozzy. Were some of my favorite 80 bands...then the 90s came Alice In Chains my favorite all time band ... followed by soundgarden. Nirvana...
Add in Metallica, Guns N Roses, Poison, we could have a pretty good soundtrack for the forum.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 26, 2019, 09:16:13 AM
No Tequila Sunrise over here today.  A dark, gray drizzle day in the foothills as moisture is trapped on this side of the mountains, and may linger all day. 

Meanwhile, the sun shines bright on the rest of Tennessee and my old KY home.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on March 26, 2019, 03:43:06 PM
Add in Metallica, Guns N Roses, Poison, we could have a pretty good soundtrack for the forum.

This is East Tennessee, so you can't leave out Steve Earle either
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on March 26, 2019, 04:53:26 PM
Every Winter and or Spring gets a theme song for example:

Spring 2011:  Crazy Train by Ozzy Osbourne

Winter 2011-12: Harvester of Sorrow by Metallica

Winter 2016-17:  Sea of Sorrow by Alice in Chains   

The theme song of Winter 2018-19:  Foolin by Def Leppard 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 26, 2019, 04:56:43 PM
What a calm (and some would even say boring) pattern we're in. I'm not going to complain though.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 26, 2019, 05:03:11 PM
From MRX this afternoon:

Quote
Behind the front we will get a nice push of continental air, with
high pressure diving south through the plains. After highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s on Saturday, temps will drop nearly 20
degrees on Sunday with highs reaching only into the 50s. Expect to
see lows in the 30s Sunday night. Temperatures will moderate some
into early next week, but will still be notably cooler than
normal.

We better enjoy these "nice pushes of continental air" over the coming weeks, because soon they won't be pushing down here too often. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on March 27, 2019, 06:38:09 AM
Every Winter and or Spring gets a theme song for example:

Spring 2011:  Crazy Train by Ozzy Osbourne

Winter 2011-12: Harvester of Sorrow by Metallica

Winter 2016-17:  Sea of Sorrow by Alice in Chains   

The theme song of Winter 2018-19:  Foolin by Def Leppard
Disappointing winter after disappointing winter for years on end: Same Ol Situation by Motley Crue.

schneitzeit, feel free to jump in here with some Rammstein references for us; severe weather season is a perfect match for their music.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 27, 2019, 06:57:46 AM
After another frosty morning, looks like a warm-up is in store today pushing us into the middle to upper 60s... next couple of days look nice into the 70s with shower and storm chance into the weekend, then temperatures drop back into the 50s for highs on Sunday/Monday. Wash, rinse, repeat.

I like this gradually stepping up and back pattern we've seen- we haven't gone ridiculously warm for days at a time. We creep up to a mild day or two and then drop back to cool- near or just below freezing nights, but not exceptionally cold.

It beats some years where we jump to anomalously warm weather, like 80 degrees, well before its time, and then there's a brutal cold snap. I prefer this gentler roller-coaster ride toward the warm season.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 27, 2019, 07:22:11 AM
Dropped to 33 here, giving us a morning of widespread frost. 

I noticed yesterday's record high of 83 was in '07.  As T-Snow said, I prefer this March of cool to mild over the ridiculous early warmth of that year, which led to a very ugly and dead spring after several late hard freezes in early April.  So far this year, things are progressing normally with the redbuds just about to bloom, while most other hardwoods are still dormant.  The buds are swelling on most oaks and hickories, so in another few weeks, leaves will be emerging on cue.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 27, 2019, 07:43:28 AM
Dropped to 33 here, giving us a morning of widespread frost. 

I noticed yesterday's record high of 83 was in '07.  As T-Snow said, I prefer this March of cool to mild over the ridiculous early warmth of that year, which led to a very ugly and dead spring after several late hard freezes in early April.  So far this year, things are progressing normally with the redbuds just about to bloom, while most other hardwoods are still dormant.  The buds are swelling on most oaks and hickories, so in another few weeks, leaves will be emerging on cue.
agree with you .. been nice March to be honest ... cool mornings nice afternoons ... loving the little dry spell been getting here n there ... breaking ground time for the ole garden ... just hope we can get a nice severe event or two in heart of spring ... April to mid May ... havenít had time 👀 at long range stuff.. due to work ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on March 27, 2019, 05:00:06 PM
agree with you .. been nice March to be honest ... cool mornings nice afternoons ... loving the little dry spell been getting here n there ... breaking ground time for the ole garden ... just hope we can get a nice severe event or two in heart of spring ... April to mid May ... havenít had time 👀 at long range stuff.. due to work ...

There's really nothing on the horizon for severe weather through the next 10-14 days. Kinda disappointing.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: wfrogge on March 28, 2019, 11:26:59 AM
There is a day 3 risk for west Tennessee. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 29, 2019, 09:27:36 AM
Chris Bailey's take on what April could have in store for us (and those bored with the current pattern should crack a smile).

Quote
I think this is setting the tone for April to be a warmer than normal month around here. No, every single day wonít be like the above map, but the average for the month should skew toastier than normal. Itís also likely to be an above normal rainfall and severe weather month.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 29, 2019, 11:26:59 AM
Chris Bailey's take on what April could have in store for us (and those bored with the current pattern should crack a smile).

If above normal rainfall, then we should be all the more appreciative of the drier pattern of late.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 30, 2019, 04:42:01 AM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190330_1200.html

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190330_1200_prt.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 30, 2019, 06:54:20 AM
Looks like a warm and windy day today, with the warmest temperatures here so far this spring in the mid-upper 70's.  But the bottom drops out tomorrow with low 50's being forecast.  A freeze watch has also been issued for much of the state for Monday morning.  Lows could once again drop into the 20's.  Pretty typical yo-yo weather for early spring. Thankfully, only my Japanese maple and a cherry tree have leafed out.  I guess it's time to pull out the big buckets. 

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on March 30, 2019, 09:08:22 AM
I'm happy that spring is progressing in a more timely manner this year. Last year went straight from cold to hot, but so far this year, we've warmed up at a reasonable pace. I'm glad we are getting what looks to be the last freeze in on the morning of April 1st- when spring arrives foo early, the weather gets nasty very quickly.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on March 30, 2019, 12:49:00 PM
Slight Risk has actually been expanded farther north into Kentucky. I think we might actually get some decent thunder & lightning later. About time too. Itís been a quiet spring for the most part so far...hope that changes soon.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 30, 2019, 02:36:34 PM
The next cool snap with freezing temperatures coming tomorrow into Monday could very well be the last one until fall.

Quote
This means that
midweek ridging will allow us to reach the 70s in parts of the
Valley from Wednesday through Saturday. But the southerly winds that
will prompt that warm-up will also draw up Gulf moisture ahead of
the next worthwhile shortwave trough that will roll past the MS
Valley Thursday and bring us showery weather from late Thursday
through Friday night. There will be no post-frontal cool down,
however, as the next trough moves into the southern plains Saturday,
quickly ridging us once again.
Precip from this second event will
probably hold off until next Sunday at least.

Looking ahead, the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks are showing decent
signals for an expectation of warmer than average temperatures.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on March 30, 2019, 03:10:36 PM
been a very boring severe season in our area so far...other than the one slight bust "moderate risk bust" there really hasn't been much of any threat.

I wonder if the trends of quieter severe springs is going to continue again this year
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 30, 2019, 04:06:15 PM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0251.gif)

Quote
   Mesoscale Discussion 0251
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

   Areas affected...Southeastern Arkansas...western through northern
   Mississippi...and western through Middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

   Valid 302052Z - 302215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection will continue to gradually develop across the
   discussion area over the next several hours, posing a threat for
   hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado.  A WW issuance may
   eventually be needed pending convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Although most of the pre-frontal warm sector has been
   capped through the afternoon, recent radar/satellite indicates
   localized breaches of the inversion associated with gradually
   deepening convection near/north of Jackson, TN and also along the
   cold front near Bradley/Drew counties in Arkansas.  These trends
   should continue through the remainder of the afternoon in response
   to convergence along the front, continued surface
   warming/destabilization, and the glancing influence of a shortwave
   trough centered over Missouri.  Strong deep shear (around 50 kts)
   and weak surface-based instability (around 1000-1250 J/kg) will
   support a gradually increasing risk of damaging wind gusts and hail
   with convection that can deepen and mature along and ahead of the
   front.  Veered low-level flow will limit the overall tornado risk,
   although an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out -
   especially where localized backing enhances SRH.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 03/30/2019
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 30, 2019, 06:10:40 PM
Quite the cold front advancing across TN this evening.  Temps in the mid 40's in northwest TN, but in the 70's from Nashville eastward.  Enjoy.  It may be the last time we see this until the Sun retreats at the end of the year. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 30, 2019, 06:41:55 PM
Any word on ground from storm heading toward Smyrna
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on March 30, 2019, 06:46:25 PM
Any word on ground from storm heading toward Smyrna
The tornadic storm will miss Smyrna, and likely go south of a majority of Murfreesboro.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on March 30, 2019, 06:47:11 PM
Nasty look to the Spring Hill storm.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 30, 2019, 06:51:54 PM
Quote
rea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
739 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to issue a wind advisory for the remainder of this
evening through early morning. Increasing 850mb jet will produce
windy conditions across the Mountains and breezy conditions
elsewhere.

Line of showers and thunderstorms over middle Tennessee will
continue move quickly east northeast. Airmass will be quite a bit
less unstable over our area. Still expect showers and some
thunderstorms with limited instability but strong upper dynamics.
Due to the 50-60kts 850mb jet, main concern will be the potential
of strong to possible damaging winds. Main area of concern is
along and west of interstate 75.

Line of convection will quickly move through by early Sunday
morning with return of dry conditions soon just before/after
sunrise.

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 30, 2019, 08:23:58 PM
Solid Spring so far, enjoying the weather or lack there of.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 31, 2019, 10:05:23 AM
seeing things coming to life finally weather wise ... 7 days out n further.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on March 31, 2019, 11:20:40 AM
seeing things coming to life finally weather wise ... 7 days out n further.

Yep seeing the same.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on March 31, 2019, 12:58:53 PM
The 2nd week of April has been showing promising signs in the longer range models. That said, it's hard to put much faith in them with how terribly they performed, namely the in the Southeast, this past winter.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Beth on March 31, 2019, 01:22:49 PM
We got lucky yesterday with the weather! Had my granddaughterís 7th birthday. Had 12 kids here from 1-3 p.m.  It was windy but the rain held off till it was over thank goodness! 😊
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 01, 2019, 08:00:03 AM
Got down to 28 last night IMBY, so the freeze warning was a good call.

Happy April!  I guess if I had to pick one month and call it my favorite, it would be this one.  It's the month of rebirth, and transformation.  Trees and plants that are bare and lifeless at the beginning of the month, are lush with new growth by month's end.  It's warm, but not excessively hot and humid.  Days get longer, and Sun moves higher.  It's just feels good to be alive.

Enjoy the blue skies and sunshine today!
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 01, 2019, 10:49:58 AM
Yep- amazing to notice the transformation of the countryside from all the trees that will be leafing out this month.

I hope this morning does turn out to be our last brush with freezing temps. Certainly, a later freeze would cause damage. Come Wednesday, it appears 70s rule for a while, and even close to 80 by the weekend. I don't think there are any other significant cool downs in sight. Oh, there will be a cool snap or two, but hopefully we stay above freezing from here on out.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 01, 2019, 02:05:04 PM
The great weather we're having almost makes up for that awful winter.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 01, 2019, 09:19:38 PM
If models r correct.... severe weather fixing pick up big time ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 02, 2019, 06:57:00 AM
If models r correct.... severe weather fixing pick up big time ....

(http://i67.tinypic.com/33dcv92.jpg)

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 02, 2019, 07:29:58 AM
Yep- amazing to notice the transformation of the countryside from all the trees that will be leafing out this month.

I hope this morning does turn out to be our last brush with freezing temps. Certainly, a later freeze would cause damage. Come Wednesday, it appears 70s rule for a while, and even close to 80 by the weekend. I don't think there are any other significant cool downs in sight. Oh, there will be a cool snap or two, but hopefully we stay above freezing from here on out.

After the warmth late week into the weekend, I'd say most trees will have leaves emerging.  Hopefully, this cold snap with freezing temperatures is the last one.  Looking into the long range, I'd say it probably is.  Usually after the 15th we're done with the 20's. 

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 02, 2019, 07:40:31 AM
After the warmth late week into the weekend, I'd say most trees will have leaves emerging.  Hopefully, this cold snap with freezing temperatures is the last one.  Looking into the long range, I'd say it probably is.  Usually after the 15th we're done with the 20's. 

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif)

And I'm here for all of it.  ::hot::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 02, 2019, 01:54:49 PM
The Sun never managed to appear as forecast yet, so we're stuck in the upper 40's, instead of the expected low 60's. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on April 02, 2019, 02:02:00 PM
The sun finally broke through in the valley after a wetter than expected start; maybe it's headed your way JayCee!
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 02, 2019, 03:19:49 PM
The sun finally broke through in the valley after a wetter than expected start; maybe it's headed your way JayCee!

Good to know!  The western horizon is brightening somewhat, so maybe I'll see a decent sunset! 

Just now hit 50, so I'd say the 61 that was forecast is well out of reach. 

Post Merge: April 02, 2019, 05:42:37 PM
After several weeks of near to below normal rainfall (for a nice change), it appears the old winter pattern may reassert itself for a time after this week.  Below normal temperatures just to our north, and above normal warmth to our south puts us back in the battle ground between the two.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif)

Above normal rainfall looks likely in that pattern, and with it being April, above normal precipitation usually means severe weather at some point, especially looking at the contrast in temperatures from north to south.  Unlike the last two wet and cold Aprils, this one looks wet and warm, and potentially more unstable. 

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif)


Post Merge: April 03, 2019, 08:24:04 AM
Got colder last night than forecast, which is logical since we didn't get as warm as forecast yesterday.  Flirted with the freezing mark at 32.8, and actually had a heavy frost on the cars.  Could be the last one until next October. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Flash on April 03, 2019, 12:54:07 PM
Good to know!  The western horizon is brightening somewhat, so maybe I'll see a decent sunset! 

Just now hit 50, so I'd say the 61 that was forecast is well out of reach. 

Post Merge: April 02, 2019, 05:42:37 PM
After several weeks of near to below normal rainfall (for a nice change), it appears the old winter pattern may reassert itself for a time after this week.  Below normal temperatures just to our north, and above normal warmth to our south puts us back in the battle ground between the two.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif)

Above normal rainfall looks likely in that pattern, and with it being April, above normal precipitation usually means severe weather at some point, especially looking at the contrast in temperatures from north to south.  Unlike the last two wet and cold Aprils, this one looks wet and warm, and potentially more unstable

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif)


Post Merge: April 03, 2019, 08:24:04 AM
Got colder last night than forecast, which is logical since we didn't get as warm as forecast yesterday.  Flirted with the freezing mark at 32.8, and actually had a heavy frost on the cars.  Could be the last one until next October.

As long as we can see greater instability more consistently, I'm cool (pun intended?) with whatever April has to offer.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 03, 2019, 02:19:15 PM
System on todayís 12z euro ... is raisaung my eye brows ... week out still 4. 11. Pushing cape values 2000 into Tennessee ... get the winds off that run veer back little more ... boom... but plenty time watch for that one
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 03, 2019, 03:00:02 PM
Sunday could see some big boomers roaming about the MRX area:

Quote
A weak warm front lifting north
Sunday morning will likely support precipitation along this
boundary.  Point forecast soundings indicate several hundred joules
of CAPE using a most unstable parcel trace. 
This elevated
instability would indicate chances of thunderstorms to accompany
this lifting boundary as well.  Once the front lifts, the area will
become embedded into the warm sector airmass. After a lull in the
afternoon, precipitation will move back into the area Sunday
afternoon and evening.
A lot of questions still remain in regards
to instability and overall shear, but models have been persistent in
showing increased instability parameters. While shear looks to
remain on the weak side, the co-location of instability, and weak
shear would support chances of multi-cellular convection as well
.
Will carry chance to likely PoPs Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening.

Probably nothing extreme, but it should make for an interesting day.  I've missed seeing the cumulonimbus building and roaming through the sky. 


EDIT:  The 8-14 day outlook I posted above just updated and changed.  That sure looks like a very active and stormy pattern to me.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 03, 2019, 03:45:33 PM
Today marks the 45th anniversary of Super Outbreak Ď74.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Beth on April 03, 2019, 04:16:40 PM
Today marks the 45th anniversary of Super Outbreak Ď74.
Yes it is!  I still have nightmares from it. My older brother worked as a telephone operator at Bell South in Decatur Ala. He worked second shift.  They had a big map in the room they were in.  People would call in screaming that a funnel was approaching their home and they were in bathrooms and halls and where ever they thought was safe. The operators could hear the roar of it and when it would hit the horrifying screams of the families. Then the line would go dead. The supervisers would put push pins in the map of where the calls came in from and report to 911.  It was on a Wednesday night and so many Churches were full.  Most were wiped out in Athens, and so many town in North Alabama.  Just slabs of cement left. A big mobile home park that was 30 miles away was gone. The last big funnel was headed straight at our neighborhood.  But veered a quarter of a mile and wiped out another large neighborhood.  We were without power for several days. We had large pieces of mobile homes in our front yard from the mobile home about 30 miles away.  I have never seen such devastation in my life and hope I never have to see it again. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 03, 2019, 05:27:12 PM
System on todayís 12z euro ... is raisaung my eye brows ... week out still 4. 11. Pushing cape values 2000 into Tennessee ... get the winds off that run veer back little more ... boom... but plenty time watch for that one

Dude, do you not ever review what you write before posting? What may seem like an interesting comment to you is irritating for the rest of us. I have no idea what you just said.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 03, 2019, 07:46:29 PM
Today marks the 45th anniversary of Super Outbreak Ď74.
the outbreak that got me interested in severe weather... when I was 11 years old... remember it well....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 03, 2019, 09:48:22 PM
the outbreak that got me interested in severe weather... when I was 11 years old... remember it well....

Much better, thanks  ::applause::

The '74 Super Outbreak must have been terrifying. To compare it to something I have been alive for, I try to imagine the 2011 outbreak without all of the amenities available at that time, such as accessing severe alerts and doppler radar on your phone. In 1974, you would have had no idea what was coming unless someone called you or if you had the TV on. Without the TV or a phone call for a warning, you wouldn't know it was in your path until you saw it or heard it. Terrifying.

Did West and Middle TN have tornado sirens in the 1970s? To this day, Knoxville has no tornado sirens. Tornadoes are very rare here, but all it takes is the correct setup (like April 27, 2011) and we will wish we had them when it's too late. I know this is not how statistics work, but the Knoxville metro is overdue for tornadoes. It's been quiet over here since I've lived here.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 03, 2019, 10:15:12 PM
Much better, thanks  ::applause::

The '74 Super Outbreak must have been terrifying. To compare it to something I have been alive for, I try to imagine the 2011 outbreak without all of the amenities available at that time, such as accessing severe alerts and doppler radar on your phone. In 1974, you would have had no idea what was coming unless someone called you or if you had the TV on. Without the TV or a phone call for a warning, you wouldn't know it was in your path until you saw it or heard it. Terrifying.

Did West and Middle TN have tornado sirens in the 1970s? To this day, Knoxville has no tornado sirens. Tornadoes are very rare here, but all it takes is the correct setup (like April 27, 2011) and we will wish we had them when it's too late. I know this is not how statistics work, but the Knoxville metro is overdue for tornadoes. It's been quiet over here since I've lived here.

It was really after 1998 before tornado sirens were a thing in Nashville.

Growing up, I remember when tornado sirens were something youíd find in the Midwest and plains, in Tornado Alley. We didnít have them here.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 03, 2019, 10:43:37 PM
It was really after 1998 before tornado sirens were a thing in Nashville.

Growing up, I remember when tornado sirens were something youíd find in the Midwest and plains, in Tornado Alley. We didnít have them here.
we had them here west Tennessee early 70s ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 04, 2019, 07:29:38 AM
Stormy times are looming ahead.  Sunday looks interesting, and even beyond into next week.

Quote
RAP soundings are showing a fair amount of potential instability for
Sunday afternoon,
although weak 0-6km shear values. This indicates
that we should mostly see multi-cells of pulse convection with non-
rotating updrafts. That said, CAPE values are high enough,
particularly in the more southern areas of the CWA, that severe
storms can`t be entirely ruled out at this point.

The period of potential thunderstorms also looks to extend beyond
the weekend
. As the GFS and Euro models are becoming more in
agreement, they show an area of developing low pressure over the
Great Plains. This area of cyclogenesis will form a weak semi-
baroclinic low pressure center that will slowly track eastward. The
slow movement of the deepening low will lead to an extended period
of showers and thunderstorms for the first few days of next week.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on April 04, 2019, 07:36:59 AM
It was really after 1998 before tornado sirens were a thing in Nashville.

Growing up, I remember when tornado sirens were something youíd find in the Midwest and plains, in Tornado Alley. We didnít have them here.
We still don't have them here. The rumor is that TVA is opposed to them because they could cause confusion between the nuclear plant sirens and potential tornado sirens. We have had 17 tornadoes in Hamilton county in the last 10 years, causing 13 fatalities and 350 injuries. Most were on 4/27/2011.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JHart on April 04, 2019, 07:56:54 AM
Dude, do you not ever review what you write before posting? What may seem like an interesting comment to you is irritating for the rest of us. I have no idea what you just said.

Meh... you need to grade some freshman math homework.  After that, you can translate almost anything.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: spanarkle08 on April 04, 2019, 11:39:30 AM
the outbreak that got me interested in severe weather... when I was 11 years old... remember it well....

I was 12 and living right smack in the middle of it in Franklin County by Tims Ford Dam.  Only had 3 channels so TV didn't help us, we turned it off so it would not get struck by lightning.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 04, 2019, 12:21:23 PM
Gfs is going along with the euro... both looking like balls to the wall chances of severe weather ... active times indeed ahead ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on April 04, 2019, 04:46:46 PM
We still don't have them here. The rumor is that TVA is opposed to them because they could cause confusion between the nuclear plant sirens and potential tornado sirens. We have had 17 tornadoes in Hamilton county in the last 10 years, causing 13 fatalities and 350 injuries. Most were on 4/27/2011.
That's bullshyt because there is a plethora of sirens in northern Alabama along with the Brown's Ferry nuclear plant.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on April 04, 2019, 06:02:39 PM
That's bullshyt because there is a plethora of sirens in northern Alabama along with the Brown's Ferry nuclear plant.
Interesting. I didnít know they had them near the plant. I think in the age of the smartphone it matters a bit less than it did in the past, but I canít believe there wasnít more of a push to install them after the super outbreak.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2019, 04:49:30 AM
Well now...

Day 3 Outlook (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day3otlk_20190405_0730.html)

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day3otlk_20190405_0730_prt.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on April 05, 2019, 05:55:03 AM
That might be the largest slight risk Iíve ever seen lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on April 05, 2019, 07:18:07 AM
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 05, 2019, 07:41:32 AM
Mesoscale uncertainties.  Not sure where the kinematics lineup with the best thermodynamics.  Ongoing convection likely an issue, as well.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 05, 2019, 07:43:52 AM
Mesoscale uncertainties.  Not sure where the kinematics lineup with the best thermodynamics.  Ongoing convection likely an issue, as well.
only in Tennessee... state for crap convection... lol but the system I have eye on is little further out anyways ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 05, 2019, 09:09:35 AM
sunday system will be crapvection with clouds and some thunder imo

btw if anybody is interested, the May 1995 event was my introduction to severe weather....I was 9 and we had just moved to Mid Tn from New Jersey in 1991....I remember 2 minutes of softball hail in Hohenwald...and looking back at the radar loop for that date we had a HUGE discrete supercell with the hail core right over us....from that moment on I was hooked to severe weather.

That is a forgotten outbreak that was VERY intense
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on April 05, 2019, 10:12:17 AM
Mid week next week- pattern looks chilly for awhile. Wouldnít be surprised if thereís some frost issues mid month.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2019, 10:13:41 AM
sunday system will be crapvection with clouds and some thunder imo

btw if anybody is interested, the May 1995 event was my introduction to severe weather....I was 9 and we had just moved to Mid Tn from New Jersey in 1991....I remember 2 minutes of softball hail in Hohenwald...and looking back at the radar loop for that date we had a HUGE discrete supercell with the hail core right over us....from that moment on I was hooked to severe weather.

That is a forgotten outbreak that was VERY intense

May 18, 1995... I was CAMPING with family not far from Hohenwald off Natchez Trace.  ::wow:: :o

We took cover in a building... as some golf ball sized hail fell outside.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2019, 10:20:15 AM
Mid week next week- pattern looks chilly for awhile. Wouldnít be surprised if thereís some frost issues mid month.

Thank you Curt...  :P

(https://media.giphy.com/media/hnzsXgI9Ka0r6/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on April 05, 2019, 10:23:15 AM
Thank you Curt...  :P

(https://media.giphy.com/media/hnzsXgI9Ka0r6/giphy.gif)

IKR? I want a 2 month long period of 70ís for highs and 50ís for lows before the 3.5 month doldrums of upper 80ís to mid 90ís kicks in.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 05, 2019, 10:39:59 AM
Mid week next week- pattern looks chilly for awhile. Wouldnít be surprised if thereís some frost issues mid month.
dogwood winter.... nothing unusual ... then you have blackberry winter... then comes the good ole heat humidity ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2019, 11:53:12 AM
dogwood winter.... nothing unusual ... then you have blackberry winter... then comes the good ole heat humidity ....

(https://66.media.tumblr.com/0f0770decb75eb23f510a7569039493a/tumblr_ok67brnS1E1u501aoo1_400.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 05, 2019, 01:52:02 PM
sunday system will be crapvection with clouds and some thunder imo

btw if anybody is interested, the May 1995 event was my introduction to severe weather....I was 9 and we had just moved to Mid Tn from New Jersey in 1991....I remember 2 minutes of softball hail in Hohenwald...and looking back at the radar loop for that date we had a HUGE discrete supercell with the hail core right over us....from that moment on I was hooked to severe weather.

That is a forgotten outbreak that was VERY intense

That outbreak along with the sequence that it was associated with was pretty intense.  1995 was a lot like 2003 and 2004 in which you had a slow start to the severe weather season but then you had a sequence (a week or two of non-stop severe weather) that put those years into the noteworthy category.  In 1995, we had the big hail/tornado outbreak of the 18th, but we also had a serial derecho a few nights before that and there were a few plains and even Northeastern USA events in the mix in 95.

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 05, 2019, 02:02:20 PM
may 2003 was a scary one....day after day of moderate and high risks and PDS watches. I can remember being under a tornado watch for about 16 hours starting one afternoon all the way until the next morning in that sequence.  the amount of cape for day after day was amazing
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 05, 2019, 05:56:00 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/2mxpiya.jpg)

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2q8zr7t.jpg)

(http://i64.tinypic.com/1zeh2fb.jpg)

Just because I don't want to contribute to extending the life of the Winter thread I will post them here. These are some snow photos I took when I was up in the Wasatch Mountains (Alta/Snowbird) a few days ago.  Alta had about 6 inches of snow before I ventured up there and about 150 inches of snow cover.  I believe it is the same system or part of the same system that will give us storm chances later on.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 05, 2019, 06:13:13 PM
Mid week next week- pattern looks chilly for awhile. Wouldnít be surprised if thereís some frost issues mid month.

After this winter, I'm skeptical of cold in the long range.  It either evaporates altogether, or it's greatly reduced in intensity by the time it actually arrives.  This time, I would be happy for either.  Give me 65-75 during the day, and lows in the 50's through Memorial Day, and I'll forgive Mother Nature for this past winter. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 06, 2019, 03:03:54 PM
another interestingly slow start to the severe weather season, odd to be at the end of the first week of april without yet having a "big" severe threat.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 06, 2019, 04:45:04 PM
What an awesome day in east TN.  76 this afternoon and plenty of sun.  But heavy rain could be on the way.

Quote
With the low positioned to our southwest, abundant moisture from the
Gulf gets advected into our area. Soundings show PW values ranging
from 1.25 to 1.5 inches by Monday afternoon, which is maxed out for
this time of year climatologically. This will allow for potentially
heavy rainfall. WPC is currently highlighting a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. Also, there could be a few strong storms, with
the main threats being small hail and isolated damaging winds.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on April 06, 2019, 04:47:51 PM
What an awesome day in east TN.  76 this afternoon and plenty of sun.  But heavy rain could be on the way.
We enjoyed a long walk this morning and went kayaking this afternoon.  Early spring days in East TN don't get any better than this. The sunshine was a welcome forecast bust as we were supposed to be cloudy most of the day.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on April 06, 2019, 08:53:24 PM
TOR Warning in effect just south of Memphis in Desoto County, MS.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 06, 2019, 08:56:45 PM
TOR Warning in effect just south of Memphis in Desoto County, MS.
outstanding circulation with that cell
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2019, 07:06:16 AM
Yesterday's sun and warmth really brought out the dogwoods and redbuds.  The woods around the house look like a painting, and are alive with lavender and white patches that stand out against the emerging green of the hardwoods.  It's hard to avert my gaze and do the needed work around the house, but that's what I plan on doing today.  The colors of spring don't last long, so I need to slow down and live in the moment--something that's so hard to do in today's hyper-active, overstimulated world.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Flash on April 07, 2019, 08:39:16 AM
Any evidence today's Slight Risk may be upgraded?
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on April 07, 2019, 08:48:55 AM
Any evidence today's Slight Risk may be upgraded?

No, if anything I think we could get downgraded. SPC already trimmed the northern/NW sections of the slight risk zone and moved most of middle TN out of the 15% hail risk.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Flash on April 07, 2019, 10:23:05 AM
No, if anything I think we could get downgraded. SPC already trimmed the northern/NW sections of the slight risk zone and moved most of middle TN out of the 15% hail risk.

Thanks! Busy on-the-go day. Havenít been able to check latest guidance. Feel/eye tests line up with your thinking.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2019, 10:44:09 AM
Per MRX, it sounds more active in eastern areas than originally forecast yesterday and early this morning.  They've increased rain chances from 40-50% to 70% for later today, and some storms could be rowdy hail producers.


Quote
rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1017 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...
An area of showers across northeast Tennessee and southwest
Virginia will move northeast and diminish this morning. The main
area of convection is currently across west Tennessee. These
storms are weakening but satellite and radar does show a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) associated with it. This MCV will move
across the region this afternoon and evening increasing coverage
and intensity of the storms.

The latest NAM soundings show MLCAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg north to
2000+ J/Kg across the southern valley. Hail CAPEs and WBZ heights suggest
isolated stronger storms could produce up to quarter inch. Enough
boundary layer winds and thermodynamic (DCAPEs of 500-700 J/kg) to
produce strong gusty winds. Also, PWs increasing this afternoon to
1.2 to 1.4 inches producing a threat of locally heavy rains.

Given the above, isolated strong to possible severe storms by mid
to late afternoon into the evening hours.


Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 07, 2019, 11:19:53 AM
if we can establish a nice healthy warm sector... system on 0zeuro has some serious legs to be a significant severe wx event with tornadoes late next week ::coffee:: worth keeping eye on
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 07, 2019, 11:39:09 AM
This system is just an isolated severe system as the MCS over SE TX will likely impede the flow of richer moisture return into our area.

The mid-week system probably doesn't have good enough moisture return.

There is a system next weekend that may have some more potential but again how far north does the richer moisture get to, or will be dynamic enough to where that won't be an issue?

The issue is our storms are still too close together and there is not enough time to allow for sufficient moisture return in between the storms (2005 and 2017 kinda had that problem).  Once we get to Late April and May this pattern could lead to a Severe Weather/Tornado Sequence if it remains because you don't have to wait that long that time of year to build richer moisture/instability, but in Early April typically that is not the case.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Flash on April 07, 2019, 11:45:50 AM
if we can establish a nice healthy warm sector... system on 0zeuro has some serious legs to be a significant severe wx event with tornadoes late next week ::coffee:: worth keeping eye on

Great post! From the concise analysis to the prepositions!  8)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 07, 2019, 12:47:14 PM
Good job Bruce! That was readable and informative.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2019, 02:43:51 PM
Thanks to the clouds dissipating, allowing for a sunny afternoon, our temperatures have climbed to near 80.  With the dewpoint at 65, we have our first official "muggy" day of the 2019 Muggy Season in east TN. 

Post Merge: April 07, 2019, 04:00:11 PM
And on cue, large, building cumulus have developed, and I hear the sound of distant thunder growling toward the mountains, as storms have developed there.  Today feels like a preview of summertime. 

Post Merge: April 07, 2019, 05:20:19 PM
Just endured our first intense round of storms in 2019.  No warnings, but plenty of lightning, gusty winds and torrential rain.  Cooled us down from 79 to 65.  Good sleepin' weather.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 07, 2019, 05:46:15 PM
The still air and the high humidity almost gives you a taste of summer out there. 


Meanwhile, the Mountain West is far from done as parts of Wyoming and Utah look to experience blizzard conditions with the midweek system with 10+ inches of snow and 50+MPH wind gusts. Anyone going to Vegas next week will likely have to deal with dust and or sandstorms as well. That one probably won't likely be very impactful for us but the system later on next weekend may need to be watched.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 08, 2019, 05:40:57 AM
Oz euro run raises some concern ... especially if we can establish a healthy warm sector in advance ....  later this weekend ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 08, 2019, 06:17:02 AM
Note a Day 4 risk...

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2019/day4prob_20190408_1200.gif)

Quote
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

   Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   By day 4 (Thursday), somewhat greater moisture will be advected
   northward ahead of the surface low with dewpoints in the 50s F. It
   still appears likely that a band of storms will develop along the
   trailing cold front as this boundary intercepts the destabilizing
   boundary layer across the middle MS, OH and TN Valleys. Despite an
   expected marginal thermodynamic environment, some risk for damaging
   wind will exist given strength of low-mid level winds and strong
   vertical shear supportive of a few embedded meso-vortices and bowing
   structures. Have introduced a 15% probability to account for this
   possibility.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Beth on April 08, 2019, 06:22:07 AM
It was not fun getting woke up by a extremely loud clap of thunder at 3 a.m. this morning.😡
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 08, 2019, 06:34:50 AM
This early morning complex is actually tripping a TOR down in north Alabama between Huntsville and Fort Payne.

EDIT: warning text says CONFIRMED tornado near Guntersville.  I believe that is based on a TDS showing up on CC.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 08, 2019, 06:40:46 AM
As an aside, you know weíve turned a corner in spring when temperatures no longer drop significantly behind a weather system, although the front late in the week does have some cooler air behind it... upper 60s on Saturday as opposed to 70s. But, that's the only day not in the 70s to even near 80 some days.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 08, 2019, 07:13:26 AM
As an aside, you know weíve turned a corner in spring when temperatures no longer drop significantly behind a weather system, although the front late in the week does have some cooler air behind it... upper 60s on Saturday as opposed to 70s. But, that's the only day not in the 70s to even near 80 some days.

This April looks more like true spring, as opposed to last year or the year before when we endured some really cold temperatures and hard freezes well into the month.  No complaints here.  This is better than staying in the 40's & 50's until May, then jumping to near 90 with nothing in between.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on April 08, 2019, 07:15:10 AM
The GFS is bordering on excessive rainfall for the next 7 days. Almost 6Ē shown here.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on April 08, 2019, 07:43:56 AM
New TOR Warning for Franklin County, TN. Rotation is near Sewanee.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 08, 2019, 07:56:07 AM
This April looks more like true spring, as opposed to last year or the year before when we endured some really cold temperatures and hard freezes well into the month.  No complaints here.  This is better than staying in the 40's & 50's until May, then jumping to near 90 with nothing in between.
agree with ... can we finally have a true spring for once ... April showers and some severe threats like old times ... brief cool spells after strong systems ...
Last April around this time we had snow flurries falling ... yuck
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on April 08, 2019, 08:05:10 AM
agree with ... can we finally have a true spring for once ... April showers and some severe threats like old times ... brief cool spells after strong systems ...
Last April around this time we had snow flurries falling ... yuck

Snow flurries??? What are those? We donít have snow here. 😂
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: snowdog on April 08, 2019, 08:05:41 AM
Had strong lightning wake me up the past couple of nights, nice to have some severe but not too severe weather.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on April 08, 2019, 08:26:24 AM
The GFS is bordering on excessive rainfall for the next 7 days. Almost 6Ē shown here.

Honestly I feel like itís the new norm for Chattanooga
Title: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on April 08, 2019, 09:27:57 AM
Looking at the euro for any severe over the next week in our neck of the woods and there is very little instability. Past the weekend, it takes 2 surface lows directly over Memphis from day 7 to 10. If thatís what happens, the best chances for severe are well south of Tennessee where the best instability and warm sector lies. We- however- will get hosed with heavy rain. In some cases it shows 5-7 inches of rain over the next 10 days.

All of this is subject to change of course. If the surface low on the 15th storm system gets pulled back to the northwest some, then we can build a much richer atmosphere.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 08, 2019, 10:20:36 AM
It does look like we're heading back into a very wet pattern. 

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)

At least we had a decent break, but if the heavy rain train moves back into town, it won't take long for flooding to reoccur.  The ground may not be saturated any longer, but it's certainly not dry, either. 

 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Susan on April 08, 2019, 12:18:18 PM
I dislike waiting to hear if there will or will not be little league baseball tonight.   ::shrug::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 08, 2019, 03:53:43 PM
Hard hit Nebraska receiving 7 to locally near 20 inches of wet snow is not what the doctor ordered in that state with the upcoming system.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 06:41:34 AM
Very latest models r slowly trending slp further nw each run ... on late saturdays system ... increasing instability ... areas south I 40 May come into play for some severe weather late that night ... southern middle Tennessee probably has best shot for severe wx in the state ... 0z euro would be super cells in front of intense qlcs  down further south ... ne miss and northern central Alabama ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on April 09, 2019, 06:50:32 AM
Hard hit Nebraska receiving 7 to locally near 20 inches of wet snow is not what the doctor ordered in that state with the upcoming system.
There are 40-50 inch snow amounts showing up in SD to western MN- combined with blizzard conditions. Those people have to be so tired at this point. Those areas have probably logged one of if not the coldest of snowiest winters of their lifetime.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on April 09, 2019, 06:52:12 AM
Very latest models r slowly trending slp further nw each run ... on late saturdays system ... increasing instability ... areas south I 40 May come into play for some severe weather late that night ... southern middle Tennessee probably has best shot for severe wx in the state ... 0z euro would be super cells in front of intense qlcs  down further south ... ne miss and northern central Alabama ...

I will give you that as the warm front comes back through late Saturday night. Things could get dicey- at least will get loud with thunder and of course- heavy rain. Itís basically the like winter pattern is back again- just adjusted for spring.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 06:56:16 AM
There are 40-50 inch snow amounts showing up in SD to western MN- combined with blizzard conditions. Those people have to be so tired at this point. Those areas have probably logged one of if not the coldest of snowiest winters of their lifetime.
yeah good thing the NCAA championship game was last nite ... day two later... weather could have impacted that game ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 09, 2019, 08:15:06 AM
9 days into the month, and already over 2" of rain here with plenty more showing up in the next 7 days. 

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1554815477)

We may be on pace to have another record wet year.  Pretty amazing. 

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2019, 09:18:35 AM
ugh when will things get cranking....already had the WORST winter of my lifetime and not a hint of a "real" outbreak and it is almost mid april
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 09:28:24 AM
ugh when will things get cranking....already had the WORST winter of my lifetime and not a hint of a "real" outbreak and it is almost mid april
if you like severe weather. Both gfs and euro say hold on ... your chance is coming... very active times showing ahead ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 09, 2019, 09:47:05 AM
ugh when will things get cranking....already had the WORST winter of my lifetime and not a hint of a "real" outbreak and it is almost mid april

That's hardly a bad thing.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2019, 10:10:46 AM
That's hardly a bad thing.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/JmWCEiyTiKTMQ/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 10:12:05 AM
That's hardly a bad thing.
yea... if you like pure boring weather... we seen enough that for most part state for quite awhile.... not hoping for bad destruction or etc. to property or lives... just time to see a uptick in some very exciting weather ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2019, 10:47:13 AM
as I have said before NOBODY wants damage injuries etc...it is just fascinating to go through a severe outbreak and you always learn something new during every outbreak
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 09, 2019, 10:51:21 AM
as I have said before NOBODY wants damage injuries etc...it is just fascinating to go through a severe outbreak and you always learn something new during every outbreak

Come on. You don't get an "outbreak" of severe weather without damage and injuries. It's literally impossible.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 11:10:19 AM
as I have said before NOBODY wants damage injuries etc...it is just fascinating to go through a severe outbreak and you always learn something new during every outbreak
i am sure glad Iím not the only one now that like violent weather ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2019, 11:12:18 AM
Come on. You don't get an "outbreak" of severe weather without damage and injuries. It's literally impossible.



 everybody knows it is impossible to get an outbreak without damage or injuries around here ....but out in the plains it's possible with all of the miles of open fields:)


Post Merge: April 09, 2019, 11:14:09 AM
bruce I can almost guarantee 80-90 percent of meteorologists get into the field because they are fascinated by the extremes....tornadoes/hail/ hurricanes /blizzards etc....not the calm tranquil Hawaii weather, so we are not in the minority
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 11:25:27 AM
Turn your head if you donít like severe weather ... cause next weeks system 17th starting show some serious legs growing with that one .... plenty time course ....

Post Merge: April 09, 2019, 11:29:34 AM
The 12z gfs continues tick further nw with slp placement ... something we got to watch see if trend or a hiccup
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2019, 11:30:40 AM
.... plenty time course ....

I'm convinced the "o" and "f" buttons on whatever keyboard/phone Bruce is using are broken and the spellcheck feature kicks out "of".  Only reasonable explanation.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 11:32:15 AM
I'm convinced the "o" and "f" buttons on whatever keyboard/phone Bruce is using are broken and the spellcheck feature kicks out "of".  Only reasonable explanation
that will be correct homer... my bad
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2019, 11:35:06 AM
that will be correct homer... my bad

(https://media.giphy.com/media/3o7TKVUn7iM8FMEU24/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 09, 2019, 11:53:14 AM


 everybody knows it is impossible to get an outbreak without damage or injuries around here ....but out in the plains it's possible with all of the miles of open fields:)


Ah, I must've misread your post. I didn't realize you were rooting for a severe weather outbreak out in the open plains where no one would see it.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2019, 11:57:44 AM
Ah, I must've misread your post. I didn't realize you were rooting for a severe weather outbreak out in the open plains where no one would see it.

LOL crockett ...I gotta give you props! your sarcasm was a thing of beauty on that one  ::applause::
I wish more people good take some good sarcasm and not get tore up over it lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 09, 2019, 12:56:48 PM
Y'all take a break from your bickering and step outside for a few. It's glorious out there! Sunny and pleasant, a hammock kind of day. That looks to be the case over the next couple of days. I took a walk on the lunch hour- invigorates to take on the rest of the day.  8)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2019, 01:14:21 PM
Y'all take a break from your bickering and step outside for a few. It's glorious out there! Sunny and pleasant, a hammock kind of day. That looks to be the case over the next couple of days. I took a walk on the lunch hour- invigorates to take on the rest of the day.  8)

We aren't bickering lol. crockett responded to me with a fantastic sarcastic line...I loved it, I am being serious I thought it was really funny and gave him some props!
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on April 09, 2019, 01:49:02 PM
Turn your head if you donít like severe weather ... cause next weeks system 17th starting show some serious legs growing with that one .... plenty time course ....

Post Merge: April 09, 2019, 11:29:34 AM
The 12z gfs continues tick further nw with slp placement ... something we got to watch see if trend or a hiccup

Bruce, I thought it was the weekend system that was showing legs??? I canít keep up.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 01:57:26 PM
Bruce, I thought it was the weekend system that was showing legs??? I canít keep up.
the one this weekend going be a doozy itself correct... but it going favor the Dixie area... the second few days after 17th got my attention... course we got time for a lot changes ... just glad see little more action possibilities Charles
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 09, 2019, 02:13:40 PM
Bruce, I thought it was the weekend system that was showing legs???

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/hEEs2P_vVBo/hqdefault.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2019, 02:14:02 PM
*tries in vain to find those prepositions*
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 02:19:27 PM
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/hEEs2P_vVBo/hqdefault.jpg)
mmmm sexy...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 09, 2019, 02:25:03 PM
Tornadoes are gonna flow from the sky like manna from heaven!

Or...we're just moving into a typical -- yet still somewhat subdued -- April weather pattern. I'll give Bruce credit, though. He can generate Day 7-9 fantasy outbreaks better than the GFS can generate Day 15 fantasy snowstorms, and the U.S. government has spent millions on that old computer.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 09, 2019, 02:41:59 PM
The more I look at historical data we are not AS tornado outbreak prone in the midstate as I used to think we were. Seems to be a big outbreak every 5-7 years with a few minor events in between.

MS and Alabama Southern and Central Ark on the other hand seem to be much more prone to actual supercell outbreaks , usually once a year at least and I honestly think "in my opinion" the only correlation is the fact that so many times here in Tennessee we get a rain shield prior to the event that slightly lessens the threat...?

Don't get me wrong we get plenty but just not as much as the "deep" south
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 02:52:06 PM
If next weeks threat still looks potent and credibility to it by Friday or Saturday ... I may start the thread on that baby... been long long long time I started one lol... Iím just chomping at the bit to start one ... Eric curt Jaycee crocket  Steven? Dyer ? Ok? Lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2019, 03:32:11 PM
If next weeks threat still looks potent and credibility to it by Friday or Saturday ... I may start the thread on that baby... been long long long time I started one lol... Iím just chomping at the bit to start one ... Eric curt Jaycee crocket  Steven? Dyer ? Ok? Lol

You do you, bruh...I got no time to track fantasy outbreaks.  I've got 60 sheets of drywall sitting under a tarp on my front porch that need to be hung. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 03:35:24 PM
You do you, bruh...I got no time to track fantasy outbreaks.  I've got 60 sheets of drywall sitting under a tarp on my front porch that need to be hung.
i can finish drywall Sheetrock Eric... need help bro ... you sound like you got job ahead of you ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 09, 2019, 03:38:00 PM
i can finish drywall Sheetrock Eric... need help bro ... you sound like you got job ahead of you ....

I can finish it, too.  Problem is I don't want to.  Guess if I hang 2-3 sheets a night and 4-5 on the weekend, I can have them hung in about 2-3 weeks.  I'm not going to rush myself like I would've ten years ago...maybe five years ago, even.  Slow and steady wins the race.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 09, 2019, 04:33:44 PM
*tries in vain to find those prepositions*

*as well as a few auxiliary verbs and the occasional conjunction*
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: andyhb on April 09, 2019, 08:34:31 PM
I can't read Bruce's posts worth a sh*t in here.

Also, yeah this weekend and next week are going to have to be watched, I will agree there. Ensemble guidance has a strong signal for a large longwave trough moving into the Central US and it would certainly make for some severe potential Tues-Thurs (most likely the latter two days in that stretch). One of the better signals at that range I've seen in awhile tbh.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2019, 08:47:54 PM
I can't read Bruce's posts worth a sh*t in here.

Also, yeah this weekend and next week are going to have to be watched, I will agree there. Ensemble guidance has a strong signal for a large longwave trough moving into the Central US and it would certainly make for some severe potential Tues-Thurs (most likely the latter two days in that stretch). One of the better signals at that range I've seen in awhile tbh.
sorry. Lol you know me .... get little carried away ... next week is going be interesting
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 09, 2019, 09:24:23 PM
I can't read Bruce's posts worth a sh*t in here.

some. severe outbreak... some time next week. Need. thread for system?... i dont know what mean when say can't read posts... any way... get ready for big svr wx outbreak.. mississipi... alabama... ark.. west tn. spot rotation week out...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on April 10, 2019, 07:20:30 AM
If youíre looking for SVR last nightís 00z run has it for Sunday.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2019, 07:28:37 AM
If youíre looking for SVR last nightís 00z run has it for Sunday.
system next week is just down right nasty ... bulk shear is insane... plenty instability this one...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 10, 2019, 09:38:48 AM
system next week is just down right nasty ... bulk shear is insane... plenty instability this one...

we have all seen STP numbers and other values maxed out over our area just 24 hours before the event....only to bust.

One week out from an event is not something I will trust just yet lol. But Bruce you are like me, grasping to any chance for something to track. Been SUCH a boring year so far
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2019, 12:28:58 PM
12z gfs holds serve on a potential severe wx outbreak  mid next week ... for ark. Tn ms. Ala...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 10, 2019, 12:31:18 PM
12z gfs holds serve on a potential severe wx outbreak  mid next week ... for ark. Tn ms. Ala...

LOL! This is almost exactly what my last post said, where I was speaking Bruce.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: snowdog on April 10, 2019, 02:54:18 PM
12z gfs holds serve on a potential severe wx outbreak  mid next week ... for ark. Tn ms. Ala...

The GFS is likely to show it raining doughnuts that far out, what is the Euro showing?
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 10, 2019, 03:50:07 PM
The GFS is likely to show it raining doughnuts that far out, what is the Euro showing?

(https://media.giphy.com/media/fQYiTxVVJnAn4wxZT8/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 10, 2019, 04:05:06 PM
 Things do look concerning for this weekend south and southwest of our area.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2019, 04:22:04 PM
Things do look concerning for this weekend south and southwest of our area.
so does next midweek... over a larger area... euro was concerning run still...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 10, 2019, 06:40:54 PM
The Arklamiss area looks downright ugly on Saturday-Saturday Evening. Factor in an evening low level jet then things can get very hairy fast.

By what I am seeing next week the mid-week system is worth a watch, but with the dismal 6-10 day record of the models, I will still remain a bit skeptical till we get to Sunday.  Unlike the weekend system, we should easily be in the warm-sector with that system based on what is currently modeled.     
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 10, 2019, 10:01:49 PM
This almost got passed me- today was the 10th anniversary of the Good Friday tornado in Murfreesboro.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2019, 10:19:29 PM
0z nam is plain good ole tornado 🌪 outbreak for Louisiana . South central ms... later Saturday ....

Post Merge: April 11, 2019, 05:41:05 AM
****. This pollen killing me already....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on April 11, 2019, 06:36:06 AM
Kind of surprised the SPC didnít go hatched with the risk zone for Saturday. They even mention the risk for significant tornadoes.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2019, 06:45:00 AM
Kind of surprised the SPC didnít go hatched with the risk zone for Saturday. They even mention the risk for significant tornadoes.
yeah ... think they will go hatched eventually ... I can see Saturday being moderate risk over the 30 percent zone
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 11, 2019, 07:36:20 AM
The last few days have been absolutely perfect.  Temps in the upper 70's to near 80 during the day under blue skies, while the nights drop to near 50 making for perfect open-window sleeping weather.  Nothing beats dozing off to owls asking who is responsible for this fine weather, and the peeps singing in a chorus around the pond.  This April is a true gift compared to the previous two years. . .
(http://www.vfh-walddorf.de/resources/hands_clapping.gif)

. . .and I'm enjoying every minute of it because we know what's coming.   ::hot::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 11, 2019, 08:13:26 AM
I think the sole reason they didn't go hatched - yet - is the realization there could be some limiting factors with how storms grow upscale.  That will change, I'm sure, once data gets straightened out.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NismoWx on April 11, 2019, 10:37:56 AM
A friend in Louisiana just shared this. That "outbreak," word just runs all over me every time I see it on Facebook. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190411/16ac0d71ccb50dc9d88427d02051bd1e.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2019, 11:42:38 AM
12gfs is coming in real hot next week.. is a widespread outbreak .... lot model watching for this
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JTM1988 on April 11, 2019, 11:49:59 AM
12gfs is coming in real hot next week.. is a widespread outbreak .... lot model watching for this


Seems like further west (MO, AR, LA) on Wednesday has the greatest potential. While still sufficient, seems the EHI and Cape decrease a little bit with the Thursday event further east.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2019, 11:52:08 AM

Seems like further west (MO, AR, LA) on Wednesday has the greatest potential. While still sufficient, seems the EHI and Cape decrease a little bit with the Thursday event further east.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
cape Thursday still pushing close 1200 j ... for Thursday parts midsouth ....

Post Merge: April 11, 2019, 11:53:17 AM
cape Thursday still pushing close 1200 j ... for Thursday parts midsouth ....
a lot going be hang on the timing of this one ... just little to far out still determine
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 11, 2019, 11:57:28 AM
We may not be done with cold weather.  A cold shot with legs and possible freezing or frosty temps is showing up around 4/21.  Even some snow possible in the higher elevations.   :P
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 11, 2019, 12:03:38 PM
We may not be done with cold weather.  A cold shot with legs and possible freezing or frosty temps is showing up around 4/21.  Even some snow possible in the higher elevations.   :P

(https://media2.giphy.com/media/BWRvAkS36LxcSpPIjJ/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: wfrogge on April 11, 2019, 12:23:42 PM
North Louisiana looks to get a rain wrapped tornado wedge fest on Saturday

Uploaded folder is full on this server. Get your own hodos ;)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Beth on April 11, 2019, 01:17:23 PM
We may not be done with cold weather.  A cold shot with legs and possible freezing or frosty temps is showing up around 4/21.  Even some snow possible in the higher elevations.   :P
It better not happen!  I have all my flowers and house plants out of my greenhouse.  😡 lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 11, 2019, 01:51:29 PM
on the next week severe threat I will almost bet that the Wed convection will spread another rain shield over our area and limit cape/instability as it has the past several years.

our "best" I use that term as a catch 22 , severe chances are when there was no previous day convection to our south/west, and the storms "initiate" over our area
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 11, 2019, 01:58:12 PM
12 z euro ... is a very nasty run for next week ... outbreak .
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 11, 2019, 03:19:49 PM
Some higher elevation snowfall possible if the GFS is correct around that day 8-10 in East Mountains. Easy chase as most trailheads would stay liquid. Above 850mb could squeeze out some fat sticky flake. Would make amazing pictures with the Rhodo
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Drifter49 on April 11, 2019, 03:23:13 PM
Iím back in Tennessee for some severe weather.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: snowdog on April 11, 2019, 03:29:23 PM
(http://www.majorgeeks.com/news/file/11402_spring2.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 11, 2019, 05:36:10 PM
It better not happen!  I have all my flowers and house plants out of my greenhouse.  😡 lol

Considering every tree around my house is now leafing out thanks to the 80 degree weather, I certainly don't want another hard freeze this late!  Cooler weather maybe, but nothing below freezing, please. 

Post Merge: April 11, 2019, 05:43:17 PM
Some higher elevation snowfall possible if the GFS is correct around that day 8-10 in East Mountains. Easy chase as most trailheads would stay liquid. Above 850mb could squeeze out some fat sticky flake. Would make amazing pictures with the Rhodo

If nothing else, mountain weather (even in east TN) is rarely boring.  Winds are gusting up there tonight to 60mph. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on April 11, 2019, 07:18:15 PM
We may not be done with cold weather.  A cold shot with legs and possible freezing or frosty temps is showing up around 4/21.  Even some snow possible in the higher elevations.   :P
The good thing is that just the week prior was modeled to be a lot colder than it has been and I fully expect models to back off the cold again.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: wfrogge on April 11, 2019, 09:32:11 PM
I know we are a Tennessee forum but Saturday's event to our south could be bigger than anything this region has seen in a long time.  If you have family anywhere in southern AR or all of LA tell them to be weather aware.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 12, 2019, 01:11:12 AM
A lot of active weather. You have to somewhat welcome shots of cooler air to serve way to good thunderstorms and or severe weather outbreaks. I am in Denver Sunday - Tues then out to Tahoe for 3-4 days to get in some riding. Epic season and now that we have 50's during the day, its like spring at 6k+ with great corn snow. Back Friday and maybe in time for some cooler weather. Morel season has been fantastic so far, looking to get more time in. I think some good weather is ahead for everyone.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: MSR041933 on April 12, 2019, 04:38:36 AM
Moderate issued for the suspected areas
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2019, 05:24:04 AM
Tennessee is included in the Day 3 with an Enhanced Risk from the Cumberland Plateau and eastward.

It appears to be dynamics driven as low-level lapse rates are not as impressive so likely damaging winds will be the main threat with a line or broken lines of storms.  Isolated tornadoes are also possible. 

Tomorrow from Arklatex to Arklamiss looks quite impressive. If the storm mode is able to stay discrete and they avoid a messy storm mode then strong to violent tornadoes are possible across that area.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 12, 2019, 07:30:26 AM
Disco from SPC regarding Sunday:

Quote
Day 3 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
   OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/severe thunderstorms are anticipated Sunday -- centered over
   the mid and upper Ohio Valley, and central and southern
   Appalachians.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong mid- and upper-level trough exiting the Plains early in the
   period is expected to advance steadily east across the
   Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and central Gulf Coast states,
   reaching a position from the lower Great Lakes to the southern
   Appalachians/Southeast late in the period.

   At the surface, a deepening low is forecast to shift east-northeast
   across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then across the central
   Appalachians to the Hudson Valley vicinity by the end of the period.
   Widespread thunderstorms -- and a broad severe risk -- will
   accompany this system.

   ...The Ohio Valley and central Appalachians south to the
   Southeast...
   Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing in a
   north-south band from Indiana to Alabama early in the period, ahead
   of the advancing cold front.  As modest heating of a moistening
   pre-frontal warm sector commences, 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE
   is expected to evolve ahead of the ongoing band of convection, from
   the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast.  This should result in a gradual
   intensification of storms through the afternoon, aided by a very
   strong deep-layer wind field accompanying this storm system --
   including 80 to 100 kt south-southwest flow at mid levels.

   Primary storm mode is progged to be banded/loosely linear, with
   embedded/complex bows and rotating updrafts.  Damaging winds will
   likely be the primary threat, though tornadoes will also be possible
   across much of the area -- particularly near and west of the
   mountains.  Risk should diminish gradually through the evening,
   though local wind risk may persist through the end of the period.


East TN is not often in the bulls-eye of the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather forecast, so when we are, I sit up and take notice. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on April 12, 2019, 11:40:18 AM
Hey guys, can somebody give me their thoughts on when the rain will move into mid tn tomorrow? Fixing to go mow all I can today, what are my odds of getting in any mowing tomorrow. I've been busy and haven't had time to keep up.Thanks in advance.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 12, 2019, 12:38:11 PM
Good grief. The HRR is downright scary for Louisiana and south Arkansas tomorrow. Tried to post pic but will not let me.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2019, 01:08:20 PM
Good grief. The HRR is downright scary for Louisiana and south Arkansas tomorrow. Tried to post pic but will not let me.

south ark/Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama have definitely been the big "winner/loser" in the past decade as far as dixie alley goes hands down. We seem to be on the fringes in the past few years which I guess is not a bad thing
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on April 12, 2019, 02:20:38 PM
East TN is not often in the bulls-eye of the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather forecast, so when we are, I sit up and take notice.
I'm the same way.  It's certainly warmed up and gotten windy this afternoon ahead of the system.  I'm glad the ground has had some opportunity to dry out and that the trees aren't fully leafed out yet; the combination of those two factors may save us some damage and power outages with this system.  I think Sunday is going to be a good one to stay home and read a good book while things go crazy outside.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 12, 2019, 02:46:36 PM
More soggy days ahead over the next 7:

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1555098203)

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 12, 2019, 04:24:33 PM
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 12, 2019, 04:55:41 PM
Shreveport Monroe north Alexandria ....looks quite quite dangerous....I believe there "might" be a chance of a small high risk zone down that way tomorrow
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: wfrogge on April 12, 2019, 07:11:34 PM
Shreveport Monroe north Alexandria ....looks quite quite dangerous....I believe there "might" be a chance of a small high risk zone down that way tomorrow

Fairly confident we get one. The question is does it come with the first day one or the second outlook
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 12, 2019, 11:00:24 PM
Summer's a 'comin.  Saw the first lightning bugs tonight. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 13, 2019, 02:24:08 AM
Summer's a 'comin.  Saw the first lightning bugs tonight.
wow thatís awful early for seeing those flying around... to much of the ole popcorn Sutton juice? Lol
Title: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 13, 2019, 05:22:09 AM
Beyond this weekendís activity, the SPC is already painting large risk areas for next week. The Day 6 risk covers nearly the whole state for Thursday.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 13, 2019, 06:38:25 AM
Beyond this weekendís activity, the SPC is already painting large risk areas for next week. The Day 6 risk covers nearly the whole state for Thursday.
shoudlnt be a shock ... models coming agreement ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on April 13, 2019, 07:01:58 AM
I think it is time for a thread no later than tomorrow night for the mid-week threat coming up. When I see a risk outlined that far in advance certain events start to come to mind given the time of year.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 13, 2019, 07:16:54 AM
Even this weekendís system probably deserves its own thread.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 13, 2019, 07:47:49 AM
I went ahead and started the weekend thread.  If someone else wants to start the mid-week thread then we can go ahead and get that started.  I probably won't look at the mid-week threat much until tomorrow if not Monday anyway because of the weekend threat and that I will be kinda busy.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 13, 2019, 08:53:47 AM
Summer's a 'comin.  Saw the first lightning bugs tonight.

Already? Wow. They don't normally come out until May.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 13, 2019, 11:26:09 AM
An analog starting see early is March 21 1952... ouch... on next weeks system

Post Merge: April 13, 2019, 12:23:31 PM
If 12zgfs verifies. High risk for parts midsouth per verbatim ... winds backed  just perfect ... directional shear ....broading base trough .... with cape pushing 2000j ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Hank W on April 13, 2019, 01:53:46 PM
An analog starting see early is March 21 1952... ouch... on next weeks system

Post Merge: April 13, 2019, 12:23:31 PM
If 12zgfs verifies. High risk for parts midsouth per verbatim ... winds backed  just perfect ... directional shear ....broading base trough .... with cape pushing 2000j ....
Start the thread!
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 13, 2019, 04:12:32 PM
Already? Wow. They don't normally come out until May.

I was pretty surprised myself.  I live in a deeply wooded area, and I usually see them sooner compared to the suburbs or the city, but this is early even for me.   

I did some research.  Firefly emergence depends strongly on temperature and soil moisture, and they love wet conditions.  I suppose our recent long stretch of very wet and mild weather could be playing a part in some appearing extremely early, just like with the mosquitoes I noticed back in February. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on April 14, 2019, 01:50:33 PM
47 with drizzle in Memphis while sunny and 75 in Nashville and nearing 80 in Cookeville
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 15, 2019, 06:41:01 AM
A little frosty this morning.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JHart on April 15, 2019, 07:13:12 AM
We reached 32F briefly this morning before clouds thankfully moved in.  That translates to a 43F temperature drop in 18 hours --- amazing for this region.

What lengths Mother Nature will go to each spring to kill my wisteria buds.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 16, 2019, 07:11:18 AM
35 here this morning in London, KY.  Heavy frost.

Looks like another cold shot (by spring standards) coming this Saturday.  Going from 80 on Thursday, to 56 on Saturday, then back to 70 on Easter.  Typical April weather in Tennessee. 

The late week system looks interesting for the mountains of east TN/NC.  Strong system wrapping up nearby may bring high elevations some decent spring snow Saturday. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 16, 2019, 12:26:41 PM
Beautiful out. Just beautiful.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 16, 2019, 06:02:18 PM
MRX concerning late week system:

Quote
The trough will begin to take on a negative tilt Friday night with
strong divergence aloft before transitioning to a cut off low. A
TROWAL and deformation zone will develop over the area around the
newly formed cut off low. The more eastern warm air will be pulled
around the low and ride up over the wedge of cold air at the surface
and produce more rain overnight. Combined with the increasing cold
air advection reducing the temperatures, some areas of higher
elevation are likely to see snow and higher winds develop for Friday
night.

The cut off low will persist for much of Saturday with cool, wet,
windy conditions for most of eastern Tennessee while elevations over
3000 feet look to remain cold with snow.
The main forcing
mechanism`s for the precipitation will be orographic lift, the
TROWAL and deformation zone. The Euro shows a break from the rain
for the more southwestern counties, the GFS and Canadian models
maintain the precip potential until Saturday night. The low looks
to finally move off to the northeast by Sunday morning, with
increased warm air advection from the southwest and higher
pressure moving in behind it.

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 20, 2019, 07:46:49 AM
Alright, letís bring this thread back to the top.

After todayís chilly, damp weather, I love itís already a memory by tomorrow with temps back in the 70s.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 20, 2019, 12:33:40 PM
Minus this very short-lived cool snap we are at least getting a spring this year so that is a good thing.   Now if we can have a Fall that starts in September instead of late October or November that would be great. 

El-Nino springs typically can get pretty active severe weather wise in May and Early June so I don't think we are done with that threat at this time, but we shouldn't have to worry about it for at least the next 7-10 days.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 20, 2019, 01:18:31 PM
Alright, letís bring this thread back to the top.

After todayís chilly, damp weather, I love itís already a memory by tomorrow with temps back in the 70s.

70's during the day, 50's at night would be good for the next 3 weeks. But we all know how this will play out as soon as the middle of May comes around.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JHart on April 20, 2019, 04:57:59 PM
We got 2.6 inches of rain with fog, gusty wind, and temperatures stuck in the low forties for two days.  I won't say it Ö

Where was this ULL in January?

Ö well, there I said it.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 20, 2019, 06:03:09 PM
Today's high was 50 with gusty winds and light rain.  After today, I'll probably never see weather like this again until October or November, so I won't complain.  Three months from now I might be wishing for a day like this.

Post Merge: April 21, 2019, 06:18:12 AM
It looks like we get back on the fast track toward spring today.  Hope everyone enjoys a beautiful and blessed Easter Sunday. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JHart on April 21, 2019, 06:35:54 AM
The temperature dropped to 32F out here just before dawn this morning.  There was slushy frost in spots on the grass and even a little ice on the porch roof, but no apparent vegetation damage.

Good bye, Winter of 18/19.  Really Ö good bye.  I am shoving you onto the driver's seat, slamming the door, and giving the car a shove.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: snowdog on April 21, 2019, 09:44:26 AM
Today's high was 50 with gusty winds and light rain.  After today, I'll probably never see weather like this again until October or November, so I won't complain.  Three months from now I might be wishing for a day like this.

Truth. Snowdog enjoyed winter's last gasp this weekend. It always seems like it takes forever to get that first cool front in late Sept/early October.

Till then, about time to hit the pool, throw some cornhole, shoot some fireworks and drink a few beers. Hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable summer.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 21, 2019, 10:45:29 AM
Truth. Snowdog enjoyed winter's last gasp this weekend. It always seems like it takes forever to get that first cool front in late Sept/early October.

Till then, about time to hit the pool, throw some cornhole, shoot some fireworks and drink a few beers. Hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable summer.

And BBQ.  Summer's not summer without some lip-smackin' Memphis style BBQ to complement the beer you mentioned.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 21, 2019, 11:15:30 AM
And BBQ.  Summer's not summer without some lip-smackin' Memphis style BBQ to complement the beer you mentioned.

Unpopular opinion: BBQ is severely overrated.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2019, 11:36:37 AM
And BBQ.  Summer's not summer without some lip-smackin' Memphis style BBQ to complement the beer you mentioned.
i would rather have me a good mess of crappie fillet s .. French fries and white beans and some good ole hush puppies  yum yum ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 21, 2019, 11:42:07 AM
I figured once church service was over, we'd come out to sunshine, but it's still dark 'n cloudy in the foothills and temps stuck at 53.   TDOT cams show sunshine in Knoxville, though, so I'll enjoy my 50's for a short while longer. 

Post Merge: April 21, 2019, 07:35:03 PM
Summer is fast approaching.  I heard my first Chuck's will's widow (a close relative of the eastern Whippoorwill) this evening from the woods behind the house.  A perfect ending to a perfect day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck-will%27s-widow (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck-will%27s-widow)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: snowdog on April 22, 2019, 06:41:15 AM
Unpopular opinion: BBQ is severely overrated.

Lol, I always had my doubts about Crockett.  ::shrug::

Post Merge: April 22, 2019, 06:42:16 AM
And BBQ.  Summer's not summer without some lip-smackin' Memphis style BBQ to complement the beer you mentioned.

True, I should've added grillin' and smokin' to my list.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 22, 2019, 07:28:47 AM
Unpopular opinion: BBQ is severely overrated.

Communist
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 22, 2019, 07:36:17 AM
After a short interlude, it's back to spring with very comfortable temperatures from 75-80, and cool nights in the 50's, making for perfect sleeping weather.  I have to say, this April is one of the best I've seen in a long time despite a few cold hiccups here and there--which is normal for April.  Compared to the last two springs, this one makes the grade.   

Enjoy these nights in the 50's.  The can't last forever. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 22, 2019, 09:08:49 AM
After a short interlude, it's back to spring with very comfortable temperatures from 75-80, and cool nights in the 50's, making for perfect sleeping weather.  I have to say, this April is one of the best I've seen in a long time despite a few cold hiccups here and there--which is normal for April.  Compared to the last two springs, this one makes the grade.   

Enjoy these nights in the 50's.  The can't last forever.

I was starting to think the seasons of spring and fall had become extinct. It's been kinda nice to have a true spring season this year.

Post Merge: April 22, 2019, 09:11:46 AM
Communist

Meh. If that meat was really worth eating, it wouldn't have to be slathered with all that BBQ sauce. And it wouldn't have to be cooked so long to get all the nastiness out. I think the point of BBQ is to take the absolute worst cuts of meat you can get from a pig or a cow and slather it in sauce to make it taste better.

I mean, it's not terrible. It's edible. It's meat, after all, which makes it better than green leafy stuff or roots. But a filet of fish, a ribeye, pan-fried chicken, et cetera and so on, are all better options.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 22, 2019, 09:19:36 AM
I was starting to think the seasons of spring and fall had become extinct. It's been kinda nice to have a true spring season this year.

Post Merge: April 22, 2019, 09:11:46 AM
Meh. If that meat was really worth eating, it wouldn't have to be slathered with all that BBQ sauce. And it wouldn't have to be cooked so long to get all the nastiness out. I think the point of BBQ is to take the absolute worst cuts of meat you can get from a pig or a cow and slather it in sauce to make it taste better.

I mean, it's not terrible. It's edible. It's meat, after all, which makes it better than green leafy stuff or roots. But a filet of fish, a ribeye, pan-fried chicken, et cetera and so on, are all better options.

I'm a BBQ fan, but not a fan of excessive sauce.

If it's smoked/cooked properly, it doesn't need sauce.

I like my ribs with dry rub.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on April 22, 2019, 09:33:41 AM
Well unless something drastically changes it looks like another year without a major march/april severe event across the mid state

always a chance that early to mid may could bring something but not as likely
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 22, 2019, 09:41:47 AM
I'm a BBQ fan, but not a fan of excessive sauce.

If it's smoked/cooked properly, it doesn't need sauce.

I like my ribs with dry rub.

Exactly!  With good cuts of meat cooked perfectly, and just a little sauce on the bun, you can't beat it with a heaping helping of crispy fries. 

I've made myself hungry thinking about it.   ::bacon::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 23, 2019, 07:23:32 PM
[attachimg=1]

2019 has been a pretty active year for some areas. Not so much for many others.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 23, 2019, 07:40:41 PM
I was starting to think the seasons of spring and fall had become extinct. It's been kinda nice to have a true spring season this year.

Post Merge: April 22, 2019, 09:11:46 AM
Meh. If that meat was really worth eating, it wouldn't have to be slathered with all that BBQ sauce. And it wouldn't have to be cooked so long to get all the nastiness out. I think the point of BBQ is to take the absolute worst cuts of meat you can get from a pig or a cow and slather it in sauce to make it taste better.

I mean, it's not terrible. It's edible. It's meat, after all, which makes it better than green leafy stuff or roots. But a filet of fish, a ribeye, pan-fried chicken, et cetera and so on, are all better options.

Ah, so you dislike barbecue and vegetables.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on April 23, 2019, 07:46:15 PM
(Attachment Link)

2019 has been a pretty active year for some areas. Not so much for many others.

Yep. Honestly, looking at the big picture, it hasnít been a slow start. I, for one, am glad we are missing out. I can watch it from afar!
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2019, 07:49:25 PM
(Attachment Link)

2019 has been a pretty active year for some areas. Not so much for many others.
wouldnt suprise me our severe wx or rather lack of i should say... may just be over already ... jet already showing signs heading pretty far north long range... time for the old pulse type and mcs season I guess ... high cape events no shear type stuff ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: harlequin on April 23, 2019, 08:55:10 PM
I was back home in Memphis over the weekend and I could definitely tell it has been a wet start to the year. Missed that deciduous canopy!

Meanwhile, in the Bay Area today we had a record hot day. It didn't get this hot last summer.

Quote
93 Santa Rosa > 90 in 1946
89 Hollister > 84 in 2004
88 KSFO > 85 in 1959
88 KNUQ > 86 in 1946
87 Carmel Valley > 85 in 1966
87 Oakland Museum > 80 in 1999
92 King City == 92, 1977
91 Gilroy == 91, 1987
90 Redwood City == 90, 1946

Quote
Several weather stations in the North Bay hills above 1500 feet are reporting 5 am temperatures from 70-75 degrees. These warm temperatures will quickly mix down to the surface this morning.  Afternoon highs from 85-90 across the North Bay valleys
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 24, 2019, 06:37:43 AM
We had a 3.6 earthquake in Dyersburg a few minutes ago. If that was a 3.6 , I would hate to feel a 6.0. It felt like the whole house moved 2 feet.  ::wow::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2019, 06:52:33 AM
We had a 3.6 earthquake in Dyersburg a few minutes ago. If that was a 3.6 , I would hate to feel a 6.0. It felt like the whole house moved 2 feet.  ::wow::
yeah Iím at work outside today... felt a little jolt myself ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: TNHunter on April 24, 2019, 07:09:52 AM
Yep biggest quake I have experienced.  Whole house and floor creaked, it was long enough to make me go into the mode of thinking okay this is the real deal.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 24, 2019, 07:21:23 AM
Ah, so you dislike barbecue and vegetables.

Not all of them. Just the ones that lack starch.  ;)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 24, 2019, 07:23:54 AM
Tennessee is becoming the earthquake capitol of the south. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: spanarkle08 on April 24, 2019, 08:58:00 AM
Windows rattled hear in Clarksburg....thought a helicopter was coming over. Biggest shake we have had here in a long while
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NismoWx on April 24, 2019, 01:32:12 PM
That's the New Madrid fault firing off. Unrelated to the quakes in Eastern TN. I'd pay attention to the next few days if I lived up there.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on April 24, 2019, 05:17:56 PM
That's the New Madrid fault firing off. Unrelated to the quakes in Eastern TN. I'd pay attention to the next few days if I lived up there.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I just posted this in the geology section.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NismoWx on April 25, 2019, 08:06:23 AM
You people are the only ones in my life that would appreciate this level of nerdiness. Columbus, MS (KGWX) radar.

Add that to the list of sites I've seen. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190425/8506799507e7a189f7d8e973f34e9fea.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190425/22ba536e5df839077c86c8f8dbe426c3.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190425/f2f58b3686b2d5fca61b2fa9f3e76831.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 26, 2019, 08:17:54 AM
Looks like a real taste of summer next week with temps pushing well into the 80's on multiple days in a row.  A bit early for that, but, hopefully, we are not done with the 70's just yet.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2019, 03:26:46 PM
5-10 inches of snow in Chicago tomorrow night? Very possible and would be the most that late in history.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 26, 2019, 03:37:05 PM
5-10 inches of snow in Chicago tomorrow night? Very possible and would be the most that late in history.

Fox News will be saying this is evidence against global warming in nothing flat.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 26, 2019, 07:11:07 PM
Fox News will be saying this is evidence against global warming in nothing flat.

While CNN will be proclaiming it as evidence in favor of AGW.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 27, 2019, 07:01:35 AM
The epic winter that won't quit in the Midwest.

Quote
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Rain transitioning to a heavy, very wet snow by noon,
  then continuing into this evening. Total snow accumulations of 3
  to 7 inches will be possible by this evening, with the highest
  amounts across northern portions of Ogle and DeKalb counties.
  Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible for
  several hours this afternoon into this evening. Northeast winds
  will also gust as high as 35 mph late this afternoon and
  evening.


In late April they can have it.

And today is the day.  Hard to believe 8 long years ago east TN was about to experience a tornado outbreak like none other in recent history.  I will never forget it. 


https://www.weather.gov/mrx/april272011outbreak (https://www.weather.gov/mrx/april272011outbreak)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JHart on April 27, 2019, 07:29:19 AM
We managed 36F down here in the creek bottom last night.  With the AO negative, the NAO forecast to go strongly negative, and the PNA forecast to go positive, I suspect we have a few more frosty nights in store over the next two weeks.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 27, 2019, 08:28:36 AM
While CNN will be proclaiming it as evidence in favor of AGW.
I guess I wouldn't know. The only time I have ever watched CNN was during a flight delay at the Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson Airport.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 27, 2019, 10:45:18 AM
With the AO negative, the NAO forecast to go strongly negative, and the PNA forecast to go positive, I suspect we have a few more frosty nights in store over the next two weeks.


What cruel irony that what we needed 3 months ago finally shows up in the middle of spring. 

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 27, 2019, 05:41:24 PM
The epic winter that won't quit in the Midwest.
 

In late April they can have it.

And today is the day.  Hard to believe 8 long years ago east TN was about to experience a tornado outbreak like none other in recent history.  I will never forget it. 


https://www.weather.gov/mrx/april272011outbreak (https://www.weather.gov/mrx/april272011outbreak)

I love tracking severe storms and tornadoes but I would be 100% fine with never seeing anything like 4/27/2011 ever again.   

April 27th also featured some pretty rough severe weather days in Kentucky (1970 or 71) and Arkansas (2014).   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 28, 2019, 10:34:35 PM
It sure has dried up in a hurry. I'm not complaining. This has been one of the most pleasant spring seasons I can recall. Although I don't truly mind the heat and would actually prefer it to be a little warmer than it has been in April, we also haven't had much in the way of cold snaps, so I'll take it.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 28, 2019, 10:51:03 PM
It sure has dried up in a hurry. I'm not complaining. This has been one of the most pleasant spring seasons I can recall. Although I don't truly mind the heat and would actually prefer it to be a little warmer than it has been in April, we also haven't had much in the way of cold snaps, so I'll take it.

We're going to approach 90 in Knoxville on Tuesday. You and I may be different, but that **** sure is hot enough for me in April.

Post Merge: April 28, 2019, 10:51:44 PM
ETA: do we really censor "damŮ"?

Well, now I know.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 29, 2019, 08:47:10 AM
Our weather will take a more summer-like turn for much of us this week.  Temps well into the 80's, and some humidity creeping in.  A ridge will keep most of the fronts to our west with western TN close enough to the Plains trough to experience more rain than far eastern areas.

As long as we don't completely dry out, I'm enjoying the recent drier and sunnier times.  I hope we get at least a half inch of rain this coming Friday for newly planted bushes, trees, and a few tomato plants I'm setting out this week.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on April 29, 2019, 09:35:11 AM
Other than a couple of days in the low to mid 80ís, LR still shows a trend for BN temps. Finally, a year with a real spring. Iím rooting for no 90ís until July(wishful thinking).
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on April 29, 2019, 11:45:15 AM
I'm with the others who are really enjoying a real spring.  We also desperately need the dry weather.  I was helping a friend drywall his new house that's on Fort Loudon Lake outside Knoxville and it's still at full summer pool if not a bit higher.  With the flooding still happening on the Mississippi the Tennessee River system has to hold water and if we get into another wet period things could get very difficult.

I'm also glad we aren't dealing with high temps just yet.  We're having our ductwork replaced this week and it was torn out this morning so we've got a couple of window units to keep the house cool until at least Thursday afternoon and maybe Friday.  The stuff we're replacing was installed when they built the house in 1968; nothing lasts anymore... ::shrug::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 29, 2019, 05:34:03 PM
Heat and summer go hand in hand in Tennessee, but cool-ish summers do happen from time to time.  As long as we don't have a summer similar to 2007, 2012 or 2016, then I won't complain. . .much. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 29, 2019, 06:08:35 PM
Heat and summer go hand in hand in Tennessee, but cool-ish summers do happen from time to time.  As long as we don't have a summer similar to 2007, 2012 or 2016, then I won't complain. . .much.

August 2007 in particular was awful.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 30, 2019, 01:38:32 PM
For the first time in a while , it feels juicy outside. DP is 70.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2019, 02:06:37 PM
For the first time in a while , it feels juicy outside. DP is 70.
yeah... were is the shear at now when you need it? Lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2019, 02:14:01 PM
Holy ::poo:: .....

https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/2889314801209756/
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on April 30, 2019, 02:18:53 PM
Holy ::poo:: .....

https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/2889314801209756/

Did you see the birds flying in it? Lol!
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on April 30, 2019, 02:56:33 PM
Holy ::poo:: .....

https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/2889314801209756/
That poof when it crossed the pond and sucked a bunch of water up  ::wow::

I didn't watch the whole thing but it appeared to stay in open country and not damage any homes so I feel OK just being amazed at the phenomenon guessing that nobody was hurt.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on April 30, 2019, 03:26:49 PM
yeah... were is the shear at now when you need it? Lol

Like the old teases of winter.

I-44
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2019, 03:47:44 PM
Tornado outbreak ongoing across the Ozarks.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on April 30, 2019, 03:55:53 PM
Bergman, AR

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5bZlvnW4AA3U_s.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 30, 2019, 04:37:41 PM
Holy ::poo:: .....

https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/2889314801209756/

Best. Tornado. Video. Ever.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 30, 2019, 05:14:55 PM
There are 4 storms between Tulsa, OK and Branson, MO that could have tornadoes on them and could even sneak in a brief significant tornado if things fall right. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 01, 2019, 06:19:14 AM
Holy ::poo:: .....

https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/2889314801209756/

I think this is the first tornado video I've ever seen from a drone.  Pretty amazing view you can't get from ground level. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 01, 2019, 12:47:17 PM
Looks like we could *maybe* get some strong storms at the end of next week based on last nightís Euro run. Thatís a huge maybe.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 01, 2019, 02:11:39 PM
I think this is the first tornado video I've ever seen from a drone.  Pretty amazing view you can't get from ground level.

Actually, the more I watched this (it was hard not to watch over and over), the more I thought I had seen something like this before.  Not quite the same, but similar.  Then I remembered this:

https://youtu.be/WrK2ytxS83w (https://youtu.be/WrK2ytxS83w)

Probably only children of the 80's would remember that one.  "Get your VCR machine going!"   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Greyhound on May 01, 2019, 02:15:02 PM
Big recycling plant fire in Knoxville right now. 

https://www.wate.com/news/local-news/authorities-responding-to-north-knoxville-fire/1970373194
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2019, 02:21:23 PM
Big recycling plant fire in Knoxville right now. 

https://www.wate.com/news/local-news/authorities-responding-to-north-knoxville-fire/1970373194
you know itís s slow severe wx season going for Us when talking bout a industry on 🔥... hate to hear and hope all goes well at the location of fire ... but Jesus ... this weather canít be anymore boring than it has been lately ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 01, 2019, 02:23:38 PM
Big recycling plant fire in Knoxville right now. 

https://www.wate.com/news/local-news/authorities-responding-to-north-knoxville-fire/1970373194

Wow, MRX radar shows the smoke plume.


https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MRX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
 (https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MRX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on May 01, 2019, 02:29:13 PM
Big recycling plant fire in Knoxville right now. 

https://www.wate.com/news/local-news/authorities-responding-to-north-knoxville-fire/1970373194

Word is that no one was hurt, but this might take days to put out.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 01, 2019, 02:38:22 PM
It's turned into a pretty windy day here; that can't be helping things on the ground at the recycling fire. It's definitely spreading the smoke more which may mean a bigger evacuation zone.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2019, 03:09:29 PM
Wow, MRX radar shows the smoke plume.


https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MRX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
 (https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MRX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2nvk10.png)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on May 01, 2019, 03:39:13 PM
you know itís s slow severe wx season going for Us when talking bout a industry on 🔥... hate to hear and hope all goes well at the location of fire ... but Jesus ... this weather canít be anymore boring than it has been lately ....

Burned down or leveled by a tornado. What's the damned difference?  >:D ::whistling::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 01, 2019, 04:31:25 PM
honest to goodness I cannot remember a more boring 5-6 months of weather....we had NO winter precip at all, and hardly anything more than a whimper of a severe season and it is just about over already....

I have a feeling summer will be miserable this year :(
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2019, 05:08:16 PM
Burned down or leveled by a tornado. What's the damned difference?  >:D ::whistling::
one is by fire...  other is tornado damaging winds ... thatís called weather ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on May 01, 2019, 08:34:22 PM
I may be in the minority here, but I couldn't care less if we have severe weather here or not. If I wanted to live under the near-constant threat of severe weather in the spring, I'd move to Oklahoma.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2019, 10:01:03 PM
I may be in the minority here, but I couldn't care less if we have severe weather here or not. If I wanted to live under the near-constant threat of severe weather in the spring, I'd move to Oklahoma.
definetly minority.... yes... especially if you like weather
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 02, 2019, 07:58:11 AM
you know itís s slow severe wx season going for Us when talking bout a industry on 🔥... hate to hear and hope all goes well at the location of fire ... but Jesus ... this weather canít be anymore boring than it has been lately ....

It was a topic of discussion not because the thing was burning, but because the smoke plume was clearly evident on radar.  Last time I checked, radar was still an instrument used by the meteorological enterprise.  Everyday can't be a wedgefest, Bruce.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 08:06:28 AM
It was a topic of discussion not because the thing was burning, but because the smoke plume was clearly evident on radar.  Last time I checked, radar was still an instrument used by the meteorological enterprise.  Everyday can't be a wedgefest, Bruce.

We are under a 2% tornado risk zone today. If I donít see, at least, 5 wedges then I am calling it a BUST!
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 02, 2019, 08:44:02 AM
How can peeps complain about this weather because wedges aren't falling from sky, but love summer heat and humidity when the sun shines endlessly for weeks on end?  Now, that's boring.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: snowdog on May 02, 2019, 08:45:29 AM
We are under a 2% tornado risk zone today. If I donít see, at least, 5 wedges then I am calling it a BUST!

Today is your lucky day....

(https://eschooltoday.com/science/simple-machines/images/what-is-a-wedge-simple-machine.jpg)

(https://jf-na-cdn.justfab.com/media/images/products/WE1825573-0001/WE1825573-0001-2_295x430.jpg)

(https://pingmediastage.azureedge.net/mediastorage/mediastorage/ping-na/medialibrary/clubs/wedges/glide/glide_wedge_mouseover_300x300.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/hneJsd5.jpg)

(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/513kVuXwt%2BL.jpg)

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 02, 2019, 09:19:37 AM
Ah, Accuweather has graced us with their long range summer forecast. 

http://a.msn.com/04/en-us/AAALL9W?ocid=se (http://a.msn.com/04/en-us/AAALL9W?ocid=se)

(https://kercommunications.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/throw-away.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2019, 01:41:39 PM
Little Rock area is under a tornado warning currently little rotation with cell
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: c_phillips on May 02, 2019, 01:53:37 PM
Little Rock area is under a tornado warning currently little rotation with cell

The storm spawning that tornado warning is impressive on radar. It looks to have transformed into a meso low.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 01:56:09 PM
Little Rock area is under a tornado warning currently little rotation with cell

Yep, and that area isnít even under a Marginal risk for severe storms today.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 02, 2019, 01:59:14 PM
The storm spawning that tornado warning is impressive on radar. It looks to have transformed into a meso low.

Nah, just the surface low.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2m3gsx3.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 01:59:30 PM
If there was a little more sheer Northeast Arkansas it would be a bad day
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 02, 2019, 01:59:56 PM
Yep, and that area isnít even under a Marginal risk for severe storms today.

Amazing what an area of low pressure can do....and its only 1014mb, at that.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 02:06:57 PM
Maybe I'm wrong but it looks like all those storms along the line are getting their act together even up to around Newport
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2019, 02:09:29 PM
Maybe I'm wrong but it looks like all those storms along the line are getting their act together even up to around Newport
yep feeding off the instability ... really soupy out now ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 02:10:04 PM
Maybe I'm wrong but it looks like all those storms along the line are getting their act together even up to around Newport

I am noticing that too. One near Tuckerman definitely needs to be watched closely.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 02:16:53 PM
We got an inch of rain up here this morning and I figured that would put an end to any severe threat.  Its the first time in a while I've felt heavy muggy air. 73/70 here right now. 1500-2000 ML Cape right now. Just no shear thankfully.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2019, 02:17:00 PM
Meso discussion now out over eastern ark 40 percent chance of watch issuance
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 02:19:16 PM
Meso discussion now out over eastern ark 40 percent chance of watch issuance

They just  issued a TOR Watch for eastern AR and one county in the MO bootheel.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 02:21:37 PM
Must not be expecting this to last much longer.  They didn't even take the watch to the river.

Post Merge: May 02, 2019, 02:31:46 PM
Well that was fun while it lasted.  Guess its back to work.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 02:38:46 PM
New TOR Warning on the cell we have all been watching. It is just SE of Swifton.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2019, 02:43:44 PM
Wonder if spc is going throw a enhanced next update here shortly on us... there is adequate shear over meg area  per meg ... along with cape pushing 2500
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 02:48:08 PM
I think a Slight risk will suffice.

The Plateau is starting to light up too with SVR warnings. Definitely gained some steam over that way in the last ~30 minutes.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 03:05:36 PM
SPC said the window was very narrow for SVR in NEA so I doubt they push an enhanced if things are trending downward
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2019, 03:09:58 PM
SPC said the window was very narrow for SVR in NEA so I doubt they push an enhanced if things are trending downward
they did keep it slight risk... but went with 5 percent probs for most east ark extreme west tn
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 03:12:52 PM
SPC you never cease to amaze me.  You talk about a narrow window over to around Crowleyís Ridge, issue watch to Ridge, then increase TOR probs east of it.



Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 02, 2019, 04:45:24 PM
Just had a quick downpour with some lightning bolts hitting nearby.  Nothing outlandish, but I can find enjoyment in a typical daily thunderstorm.  A large cumulonimbus towering in the sky is always awe inspiring to me, and while heavy rain, wind, and lightning with no destruction may not be news worthy, it's far more enjoyable, especially with a cold drink in hand while watching the show on the porch.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 04:52:32 PM
Got a report of shingles off homes in the Fairvue Plantation neighborhood in Gallatin. Radar was estimating winds upwards of 60+ at the time this storm went through there.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 05:13:48 PM
Followed that TOR in NEA all the way to passed Dell and gave up. Wish I had stuck with it.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 05:17:18 PM
There are numerous rotating cells in eastern AR currently. Only one warned but I see 3 other areas that could get warned if it tightens up even a little.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 02, 2019, 05:41:26 PM
Tornado watch for north half oh West Tennessee.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2019, 05:56:22 PM
Best signature of the day is currently just SW of Senath, MO.

Also a solid area of rotation in NW Dyer County moving towards Ridgely.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 02, 2019, 06:51:53 PM
Iím on a tornado in lake county. Pics to come.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 02, 2019, 07:03:09 PM
The storm Dyer is on is the best looking storm that Tennessee has seen all year.  It is an actual supercell with actual rotation.

Post Merge: May 02, 2019, 07:04:59 PM
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 02, 2019, 07:41:47 PM

A large cumulonimbus towering in the sky is always awe inspiring to me
They were piling up as high as they could go over Knoxville this evening,  although no storms so far.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/qArTbHoBzoextCzSA
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2019, 08:27:33 PM
Did Dyer survive the great chase?  Iím kinda jealous. I followed that rotation that went over Blytheville but had to give up to go be daddy.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 02, 2019, 08:45:05 PM
[attachimg=2]Iím alive. Trying to get pics to upload. Sure wish we could post videos.



Post Merge: May 02, 2019, 08:49:15 PM
[attachimg=1][attachimg=3]

[attachment deleted by admin]

[attachment deleted by admin]

[attachment deleted by admin]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: WXHD on May 03, 2019, 06:50:10 AM
Just under 1/2in overnight. My yard was happy to drink it up.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 03, 2019, 07:08:25 AM
(Attachment Link) Iím alive. Trying to get pics to upload. Sure wish we could post videos.



Post Merge: May 02, 2019, 08:49:15 PM
(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

(http://i64.tinypic.com/20z2zif.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 03, 2019, 07:17:53 AM
Just under 1/2in overnight. My yard was happy to drink it up.

It's amazing that despite how wet we were for a 6 month period, just a few weeks of a strengthening spring sun pulls the excess moisture right back out.  Not to mention all the trees soaking it up as lush spring growth emerges.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 03, 2019, 09:00:42 AM
Most of East TN under a slight risk tomorrow.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 03, 2019, 09:12:31 AM
The top pic in my post was a screenshot from my video. It is white because it was in the middle of Mississippi River. If you look close, you can see the spray just above tree line.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 03, 2019, 12:03:33 PM
Had some intense, but non-severe storms, just roll through the foothills.  Strong winds, and torrential rain, along with vivid lightning.  Now the sun is peaking back out. 

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on May 03, 2019, 07:56:00 PM
I actually had storms at 6 AM this morning. Pretty unusual for this time of year. In other news, the GFS is returning to an extremely wet pattern long term.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 04, 2019, 06:42:40 AM
It looks like several rounds of storms are coming through TN today.  For eastern areas, things really get active after lunch.  And despite the SPC shifting the slight risk south into the Carolinas, leaving east TN in the marginal risk, the current HRRR shows some pretty intense, and possibly severe storms, developing over east TN later today. It could be a bad day for the festivals and activities taking place in Knoxville this afternoon.

I plan on firing up the grill, making some cold drinks, and throwing some steaks on the fire while watching nature's show from the porch.  Ah, now that's a perfect Saturday!
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2019, 06:58:58 AM
Models starting to converge on a active severe weather pattern mid late next week ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 04, 2019, 07:58:04 AM
West TN is already in a Day 6. That is extremely high confidence this far in advance.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on May 04, 2019, 09:52:29 AM
Pretty strong storm moving through my area right now. The thunder is very faint, as though it is occurring in the highest parts of the convection.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 04, 2019, 12:42:11 PM
So dark as the storms approach, that street lights have come on next door.  It feels more like twilight at midday.  Thunder rumbling loud enough to make the windows rattle.  Putting the grilling on hold for just a moment.   ;D

It's pretty obvious where the greatest instability is by looking at the radar.  While heavy rain is occurring north of I-40, areas south of there are in true convection. 

Wind is gusting over 25-30mph and I'm amazed at how dark it is at the moment.  It's as dark as 8:30 or so at night after the sun sets.   ::candle::  The rain is blinding currently.  I can't see across the street.



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2019, 01:26:06 PM
Thursday afternoon might have some teeth around here. Decent instability shows up from morning into afternoon. One thing looks more certain- another 2-3 inch rain event. After that - well below normal temp. This might be my favorite spring.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 04, 2019, 01:43:32 PM
Severe T-Storm warning was just issued for the storms after they moved through my area. 

Quote
TNC029-041900-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190504T1900Z/
Cocke TN-
227 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR COCKE COUNTY...

At 227 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Newport, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Newport, Parrottsville, Bybee, Del Rio, Round Mountain, Cosby,
Hartford and Max Patch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

I witnessed the wind and rain, but didn't see the hail.  In the meantime, it's time to start on the steaks!



Post Merge: May 04, 2019, 01:50:17 PM
Thursday afternoon might have some teeth around here. Decent instability shows up from morning into afternoon. One thing looks more certain- another 2-3 inch rain event. After that - well below normal temp. This might be my favorite spring.

A wet late spring usually equates to a cooler summer.  Wet ground, along with lush vegetation full of water, usually keeps a death ridge from developing and living long in that location--at least early on (June-July).  I'm not complaining!
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 05, 2019, 06:57:58 AM
spc starting to mention super cells firing out in front of the frontal boundary Thursday... shear values now showing 40  60 knts on models... cape values on models reaching 2500... this one may be finally have chance to get interesting for us...  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 05, 2019, 07:10:21 AM
Over 2" of rain and counting with rain coming down at daybreak this morning.  The temperature is 60, so it's a pleasant morning to open the windows and listen to the rain in the trees while making breakfast.  But I wouldn't complain to see the sun at some point this afternoon.  This type of weather (gray skies, continuous rain for 12 hours) reminds me too much of the winter we just endured. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 05, 2019, 02:32:22 PM
if the models hold pretty much like todays 12z runs... ere looking at a pretty good severe event Thursday... models seem to be slowing thin gs time wise down bit... putting frontal boundary late afternoon Thursday... gfs soulution bit more concerning with wind fields supportive of super cells out ahead... euro seems to be heading toward gfs type soulution... wed threat looks to be serious threat also further west... think spc have a 30percent circle over the southern plains n Ozarks in mornings update... then Tuesday morning see  30 percent zone further east for Thursday event.... were within 100 hours of this threat... maybe time for a separate thread for this ... but im not starting it. lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 05, 2019, 02:46:23 PM
A sunny afternoon after plenty of rainfall.  Some dry days ahead, but as was mentioned, the next round of storms and heavy rain is coming in on Thursday:

Quote
Ahead of this low
pressure system...southerly flow will increase low level moisture
and a minor impulse in the upper flow will produce a chance of
convection across the region during the Wednesday afternoon/evening
time frame.  The cold front will push in on Thursday.  At this
point...deep moisture will be in place and with significant
additional moisture accompanying the front...expect to see a well
organized line of thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall.



Post Merge: May 05, 2019, 04:49:49 PM
No sign of extreme summer heat on the horizon.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif)

Post Merge: May 05, 2019, 07:16:26 PM
Very little drought to speak of going into late spring.  Never a bad thing in May.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 05, 2019, 08:29:42 PM
spc starting to mention super cells firing out in front of the frontal boundary Thursday... shear values now showing 40  60 knts on models... cape values on models reaching 2500... this one may be finally have chance to get interesting for us...  ::coffee::

LOL bruceÖ.I am not biting yet after our past busts over 72 hours out...BUT it does bear watching :) If by tomorrow evening it still is showing up this way, I may take a few nibbles :)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 06, 2019, 07:34:24 AM
6 days in, and already up to 2.5" of rain for May.  I think don't I've ever seen the trees so heavy and lush with new growth.  Some of the oak saplings around the house are bending over from the weight of it.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 06, 2019, 07:51:03 AM
ArkLaMiss looks like the spot again for severe come Thursday/Friday. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 06, 2019, 08:10:21 AM
MRX says "meh."  Western areas stand a better chance compared to eastern TN.

Quote
On Thursday, shortwave energy originating from the longwave trough
across the Western CONUS will lead to PVA and height falls across
the forecast area. A surface low will also track northeast from the
Great Plains to the Great Lakes by Thursday night with a trailing
cold front. The NAEFS and ECMWF show PW values near 1.5 to 1.7
inches late Thursday, which is near the 95th percentile. While this
would seem to favor a heavy rain and localized flooding threat,
there are a few mitigating factors that could limit overall QPF.
First, the surface low and best forcing is north of the region. In
addition, the low will be beginning the occlusion process late
Thursday night with the cold front forward motion slowing
. In this
more weakly forced environment, widespread heavy convection appears
less likely. The GFS has been consistent with showing convection to
our south limiting convection further north across our area, and
this scenario is definitely possible
. Regardless, there will be
enough moisture in the atmosphere for some heavier downpours and at
least localized flooding with thunderstorms. Furthermore, with the
surface low and best dynamics north of the area, the overall severe
threat appears marginal.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on May 06, 2019, 09:24:56 AM
Bad timing for the dying leftovers Wednesday night here, then the dynamics stink on Thursday for frontal passage. No doubt there will be thunderstorms- but as of now the severe threat for anything major just isnít there. What is there is heavy rain al day Saturday in the ďcool airĒ. Temps look well below normal after this weekend for quite some time. We might make it to June with no 90 degree temps.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 06, 2019, 09:57:56 AM
The amount rain weíve been seeing the last few years nationwide has been pretty extraordinary.  Almost no drought anywhere in the U.S., and looking at the next 7 days, I donít think thereís any on the horizon.

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1557154852)

The wetness in the Plains will keep any death ridge from developing there any time soon.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: MSR041933 on May 06, 2019, 11:25:49 AM
Bad timing for the dying leftovers Wednesday night here, then the dynamics stink on Thursday for frontal passage. No doubt there will be thunderstorms- but as of now the severe threat for anything major just isnít there. What is there is heavy rain al day Saturday in the ďcool airĒ. Temps look well below normal after this weekend for quite some time. We might make it to June with no 90 degree temps.
Not complaining any about lack of 90 degree weather...and SPC trimmed their day 4 back to the west a good bit
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 06, 2019, 04:05:23 PM
It does occasionally happen but it is hard to get a big tornado event east of the Mississippi after the first of May.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 06, 2019, 04:40:24 PM
looks like we are gonna get away without having a single flake of snow through winter and no severe outbreaks in the mid state...well south of 1-40 anyway no snow flakes lol.

Maybe the fall season will bring some sort of interesting weather as far as severe events go
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 06, 2019, 05:41:00 PM
Thankful for a much needed dry, and perfectly pleasant, day.  We didn't even crack 80, but there was nary a cloud visible after the morning fog burned away. 

Our dry time won't last long, as active weather starts to creep back in by Wednesday.  After that, there isn't a day free from rain chances into early next week.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 06, 2019, 06:37:55 PM
although it has been a crazy boring first 5 months of the year....I must say this is the first time in at least 10-15 years that I can remember having 4-6 weeks of a TRUE spring and I must say it has been lovely :)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 06, 2019, 09:12:59 PM
There appears to be an increasing signal for a flooding event with multiple rounds of severe storms from Austin/San Antonio over towards the Arklamiss area.

For that area that will cause some flooding concerns, but for us, that could effectively block the rich moisture return needed for severe storms (at least on a widespread level) across our area. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 07, 2019, 06:56:55 AM
I assume our weather pattern is still being influenced by the weak El Nino, as the current GFS shows heavy precipitation over much of Texas and the south, while there is a minimum near and just north of the Ohio River.  Also, parts of central and southern CA are pretty wet by May standards.  I think this wet pattern is here to stay for awhile.  Nothing new.  Been wet here since the end of 2016. 

Speaking of El Nino, I stumbled across this news article this morning.  Pretty interesting.

http://theconversation.com/el-nino-has-rapidly-become-stronger-and-stranger-according-to-coral-records-115560 (http://theconversation.com/el-nino-has-rapidly-become-stronger-and-stranger-according-to-coral-records-115560)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 07, 2019, 08:24:27 AM
After a classic "panhandle magic" day for storm chasers today, it appears that MCS and maybe even a squall line will damper the threat for the Plains tomorrow and for our area on Thursday.     

Now it looks like the biggest threat with this system across the US after today will be across South-Central TX to Arklamiss and will probably have a bigger flooding threat than a severe weather threat.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 07, 2019, 02:58:22 PM
Todayís weather been absolutely perfect...upper 80s with little good ole humidity ... so ready for the 90s... hopefully end May we can getting the heat humidity going
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 07, 2019, 05:10:39 PM
Todayís weather been absolutely perfect...upper 80s with little good ole humidity ... so ready for the 90s... hopefully end May we can getting the heat humidity going

Are you insane? Heat, humidity and perfect don't belong in the same sentence.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 07, 2019, 06:05:04 PM
Meanwhile, the higher elevation locations in Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and perhaps even the Nebraska Panhandle will soon get to enjoy some more snow.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Matthew on May 07, 2019, 10:57:05 PM
https://theconversation.com/el-nino-has-rapidly-become-stronger-and-stranger-according-to-coral-records-115560
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 08, 2019, 03:55:53 AM
https://theconversation.com/el-nino-has-rapidly-become-stronger-and-stranger-according-to-coral-records-115560

JayCee literally just posted this.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 08, 2019, 07:47:29 AM
Are you insane?

(https://www.bing.com/th?id=OGC.3a9f3dfd70cc19d974e1a928a85898d5&pid=1.7&rurl=https%3a%2f%2fmedia.giphy.com%2fmedia%2fi7RGfLvttaxTa%2fgiphy.gif&ehk=Y%2fRsL12%2b0v%2b5sc2ExrIsYg)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 08, 2019, 01:09:02 PM
While we're fortunately able to complain about the lack of exciting weather here, and get to enjoy the first real spring in many years, we need to remember that big parts of the country are suffering from serious flooding issues.  A video from TWC (https://weather.com/news/weather/video/watch-frightening-moment-levee-fails-in-davenport-iowa) shows a temporary levee failing in Davenport, IA.  The fact they're hiding behind temporary levees indicates a pretty bad situation already, but with enough water to breach them (or maybe it was a badly built levee, I don't know) and flood waters from such breaches remaining for multiple days I'm afraid the midwest is facing a slow-moving disaster through late spring and early summer.

My only thought as to why it is getting very little media attention is that it's a slow-moving disaster.  Something more suddenly destructive, or involving terribly compromising information about some politician or party, would probably get wall to wall coverage on our 24 hour news cycle.  When there is eventually a major, newsworthy flood from this event most people are going to think there was no warning and it hadn't been building for weeks or months with high levels up and down the Mississippi.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 08, 2019, 04:22:01 PM
While we're fortunately able to complain about the lack of exciting weather here, and get to enjoy the first real spring in many years, we need to remember that big parts of the country are suffering from serious flooding issues.  A video from TWC (https://weather.com/news/weather/video/watch-frightening-moment-levee-fails-in-davenport-iowa) shows a temporary levee failing in Davenport, IA.  The fact they're hiding behind temporary levees indicates a pretty bad situation already, but with enough water to breach them (or maybe it was a badly built levee, I don't know) and flood waters from such breaches remaining for multiple days I'm afraid the midwest is facing a slow-moving disaster through late spring and early summer.

My only thought as to why it is getting very little media attention is that it's a slow-moving disaster.  Something more suddenly destructive, or involving terribly compromising information about some politician or party, would probably get wall to wall coverage on our 24 hour news cycle.  When there is eventually a major, newsworthy flood from this event most people are going to think there was no warning and it hadn't been building for weeks or months with high levels up and down the Mississippi.

Flood events typically do not get the coverage they deserve.  The May 2010 floods hardly registered on the national scale.  One thing is that floods are not as seen as sexy/appealing as other disasters that do a lot of damage in the short term (e.g. earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes). The negative of that lack of coverage is it sends a message to Joe and Joellen Public that floods are really not that big of a deal which has occasionally lead to deadly results.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 08, 2019, 05:38:12 PM
The bowing segment of storms that has moved through Texas  and now Louisiana has been a mean one. It has had countless tornado warnings.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 08, 2019, 07:28:46 PM
The bowing segment of storms that has moved through Texas  and now Louisiana has been a mean one. It has had countless tornado warnings.

It is moving at 50-70MPH as well.  It may try to make a run at derecho status if it can maintain itself across Mississippi.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 09, 2019, 09:01:43 AM
It is moving at 50-70MPH as well.  It may try to make a run at derecho status if it can maintain itself across Mississippi.

A Summer derecho is always fascinating to watch....all of that heat and humidity just fueling a derecho around the ring of fire high pressure is something to behold
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 09, 2019, 09:11:41 AM
By the spc has taken midsouth out the slight risk zone today.. pushed it south.. we canít even get a decent squall line anymore these days.... go figure ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 09, 2019, 09:27:09 AM
By the spc has taken midsouth out the slight risk zone today.. pushed it south.. we canít even get a decent squall line anymore these days.... go figure ...

Bruce I tried to tell ya last week not to bite on this one lol....this has got to be the most boring season of all time don't ya think
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: MSR041933 on May 09, 2019, 09:54:00 AM
Bruce I tried to tell ya last week not to bite on this one lol....this has got to be the most boring season of all time don't ya think
Nah
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 09, 2019, 09:59:49 AM
We have had a few springs that lacked a notable severe weather event.  2005 and 2015 come to mind.  2004 was pretty calm nationwide than the last 7-10 days just went bonkers and continued straight on to November.   

It should be noted that 2005 gave us November 5-6th and 15th and 2015 gave us the December 23rd event. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 09, 2019, 10:16:03 AM
Nah
[/quoI

IDK lol....we haven't even had a threat since we had that moderate risk bust day 6 weeks or so ago, sure has ben sleepy lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 09, 2019, 12:52:09 PM
We've got a TOR in Tennessee now, Franklin County along the AL border. Let's hopen for no injuries or lost homes, but things are spinning up a bit with this first round of several days of storms.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 09, 2019, 01:12:48 PM
Donít look now, but there are multiple Tors in progress along the TN/Al line right now. This is pretty surprising.

Post Merge: May 09, 2019, 01:52:16 PM
My dad is currently in Fort Payne, AL taking shelter at the Tractor Supply. A bit nervous right now.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 09, 2019, 01:56:29 PM
My dad is currently in Fort Payne, AL taking shelter at the Tractor Supply. A bit nervous right now.
Best wishes to your Dad!  It reminds me of the tortuously long time it took me to get through to my parents when the Good Friday tornado went straight through their neighborhood in Murfreesboro.  Fortunately they were both fine and so was the house, but it was tough not knowing.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 09, 2019, 02:44:46 PM
Best wishes to your Dad!  It reminds me of the tortuously long time it took me to get through to my parents when the Good Friday tornado went straight through their neighborhood in Murfreesboro.  Fortunately they were both fine and so was the house, but it was tough not knowing.

All good! No tornado that I know of but definitely sounding like there was some straight-line wind damage.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 09, 2019, 04:23:16 PM
After a soggy weekend, next week looks as good as it gets for May:

Quote
Monday
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 70.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 72.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Wednesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77.

You can't beat upper 40's in mid May; not to mention my utility bill is hitting record low territory with this weather, so keep it comin'.

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 09, 2019, 05:21:52 PM
There as a report of a tornado right on the TN/AL state line between Hazel Green, AL and Fayetteville, TN with that line of storms.  Damage so far appears to be trees on houses and things of that nature.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 10, 2019, 07:54:25 AM
South middle and east TN about to get another super soaker. 

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif?1557492462703)

But a decent break in the wet times may arrive after this latest soaking. 

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)

Also, early next week continues to trend cooler with highs Monday and Tuesday only in the upper 60's for some of us.  Considering the strong May Sun angle, that's a pretty cool air mass coming in. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Beth on May 10, 2019, 08:06:36 AM
We usually see a cool snap around Motherís Day.  I think the coming cool snap is blackberry winter as the blackberry bushes are in full bloom.  8)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 10, 2019, 08:17:26 AM
We usually see a cool snap around Motherís Day.  I think the coming cool snap is blackberry winter as the blackberry bushes are in full bloom.  8)
that is correct... after that ... we know whatís ahead then...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: MSR041933 on May 10, 2019, 09:35:55 AM
South middle and east TN about to get another super soaker. 

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif?1557492462703)

But a decent break in the wet times may arrive after this latest soaking. 

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)

Also, early next week continues to trend cooler with highs Monday and Tuesday only in the upper 60's for some of us.  Considering the strong May Sun angle, that's a pretty cool air mass coming in.
Looks like heaven to me for may..keep it coming cause we all knows whatís in store in August (humid heat)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 10, 2019, 04:36:21 PM
The overall pattern, notably the 500mb level, is showing signs of a classic setup for the Plains roughly between 5/16-19 timeframe.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Beth on May 10, 2019, 06:23:05 PM
I am so ready for heat and humidity! Pool is open now. Our 7 yr old granddaughter has already been swimming every afternoon.  Mimi needs the water a bit warmer!  8)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 12, 2019, 12:05:01 PM
There is cause for some alarm in the medium to long range models.  The 500mb looks good for an active Plains sequence starting Friday. Some 2004 comparisons have been made although I personally think it is too early to make those claims at this point. The question will be does the SE Ridge get beat down enough or will we have a strong enough system that we could also get involved later down the line. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 12, 2019, 04:58:03 PM
Just got back home from KY visiting mom on her big day.  Looks like we had nearly 2 inches of rain IMBY since Friday.  Creeks are running high, and the ground is soaked.  Some dry days and sunshine would be welcome.

Oh, and happy Mother's Day to any mothers here!
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 13, 2019, 06:49:00 AM
So do we re-open the fall thread for this week?  Cool, crisp, and sunny this morning in Knoxville.  I'm going to try and soak this up so I can remember it when we're 95 degrees with 96% humidity in July.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 13, 2019, 07:55:50 AM
It certainly felt like fall this past weekend.  There was a definite chill in the air up in KY. 

As long as we remain in a wet pattern, we may have humidity, but extreme heat will have a hard time gaining a foothold with saturated soils going into late spring.  The Sun will be too busy trying to dry the ground and evaporating all the excess moisture from lush vegetation to add much heat to the atmosphere.  And we aren't the only area that's wet.  The southern & central Plains are also running well above normal in rainfall this spring with much of the area currently experiencing flooding.  That's normally where summer heat waves begin, as a huge ridge develops there and expands eastward over us.  That's not going to happen anytime soon with saturated soils sapping all the solar radiation.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 13, 2019, 08:35:13 AM
Several forecasters in various capacities (NOAA, academia, and private companies) are starting to really latch onto roughly May 19-25 period.

The overall synoptic pattern looks HIGHLY favorable for some extremely active weather for the Plains and into the Midwest. Even though it's 5-7 days out, I'd almost lock this in, at least in the modeled synoptic pattern. As we all know, smaller mesoscale features will make or break.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 13, 2019, 09:16:46 AM
Well looks like we escape yet another severe weather spring season without a major event and for once enjoying some actual spring temps :)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 13, 2019, 09:25:09 AM
Raleigh is getting rocked right now!

Post Merge: May 13, 2019, 09:36:43 AM
Several forecasters in various capacities (NOAA, academia, and private companies) are starting to really latch onto roughly May 19-25 period.

The overall synoptic pattern looks HIGHLY favorable for some extremely active weather for the Plains and into the Midwest. Even though it's 5-7 days out, I'd almost lock this in, at least in the modeled synoptic pattern. As we all know, smaller mesoscale features will make or break.

Thatís well over a week away. Thatís some extremely high confidence this far in advance. If it comes to fruition I wonder if maybe we get impacted possibly toward the end of the month.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 13, 2019, 09:59:32 AM
Well looks like we escape yet another severe weather spring season without a major event and for once enjoying some actual spring temps :)
and now we return you to your regular schedule boring weather pattern as itís in progress....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 13, 2019, 11:12:30 AM
Raleigh is getting rocked right now!

Post Merge: May 13, 2019, 09:36:43 AM
Thatís well over a week away. Thatís some extremely high confidence this far in advance. If it comes to fruition I wonder if maybe we get impacted possibly toward the end of the month.
I personally have some pretty decent confidence this far out given model agreement and consistent overall upper level pattern. As I said, I'm confident in that but the devil lies in the details with the finer parts that could make or break a day.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on May 13, 2019, 11:20:20 AM
It certainly felt like fall this past weekend.  There was a definite chill in the air up in KY. 

As long as we remain in a wet pattern, we may have humidity, but extreme heat will have a hard time gaining a foothold with saturated soils going into late spring.  The Sun will be too busy trying to dry the ground and evaporating all the excess moisture from lush vegetation to add much heat to the atmosphere.  And we aren't the only area that's wet.  The southern & central Plains are also running well above normal in rainfall this spring with much of the area currently experiencing flooding.  That's normally where summer heat waves begin, as a huge ridge develops there and expands eastward over us.  That's not going to happen anytime soon with saturated soils sapping all the solar radiation.

As much as I have enjoyed a "true" spring without jumping straight from winter to summer, low 60s in mid May is a little weird. Not too weird if it only lasts a day or 2; we can call that blackberry winter. But when I look at the cool and damp pattern that seems to be stretching on without an end in sight, I begin to suspect that I'll be griping right alongside Bruce here shortly.  ;D The GFS had been hinting at the first widespread 90s by Memorial Day weekend. Now it's showing wet and cool for that weekend. Bleh.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 13, 2019, 02:32:15 PM
Never fear, warmer weather will appear.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: wfrogge on May 13, 2019, 02:55:28 PM
Well looks like we escape yet another severe weather spring season without a major event and for once enjoying some actual spring temps :)


Chickens...... hatch..... donít count
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 13, 2019, 03:41:54 PM
you KNOW it has been a BORING year when everybody is salivating at a potential severe threat over the plains 6 days out lol....

when I see a significant threat for our area 48 hours in advance with consistent agreement, then I will bite. Long range didn't pan out in winter over our area and so far hasn't panned out as far as severe weather in our region more than 3 days out either.....

Bruce what is going on with all this snooze-fest weather lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 13, 2019, 04:29:27 PM
you KNOW it has been a BORING year when everybody is salivating at a potential severe threat over the plains 6 days out lol....

when I see a significant threat for our area 48 hours in advance with consistent agreement, then I will bite. Long range didn't pan out in winter over our area and so far hasn't panned out as far as severe weather in our region more than 3 days out either.....

Bruce what is going on with all this snooze-fest weather lol

Do we need to rant/gripe/whine thread about this?  ;)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 14, 2019, 04:21:10 AM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Every outlook from Day 4 to 8 is highlighted.  Severe/Tornado Outbreak Sequence is of concern especially points north and west of our region but D6 may push it into our region and we may have activity further on down the line.

Remember we have had some outbreaks in our history at the end of May.  5/27/1917, the late May 2000 sequence, and 5/30/2004 come to mind.  Even for us severe weather season is not over.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 14, 2019, 05:31:45 AM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Every outlook from Day 4 to 8 is highlighted.  Severe/Tornado Outbreak Sequence is of concern especially points north and west of our region but D6 may push it into our region and we may have activity further on down the line.

Remember we have had some outbreaks in our history at the end of May.  5/27/1917, the late May 2000 sequence, and 5/30/2004 come to mind.  Even for us severe weather season is not over.
and what you know... spc has western areas mid south in risk already day 6... including parts west Tennessee... going be honest... havenít looked at a model in two weeks... so I guess I keep one eye open... but sure the same ole same ole start pop up .. another ark la Tex deal...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 14, 2019, 07:04:35 AM
We were breaking record highs with mid 90s last year at this time. Itís a nice 47 degrees currently.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 14, 2019, 07:21:56 AM
Last year, we skipped the great season of spring.  April was setting record lows with a cold rain falling most of the month.  It was about this time that we flipped the switch from early March to July, skipping April and May altogether.  It's been awesome to actually have a real spring this year. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 14, 2019, 07:39:15 AM
Last year, we skipped the great season of spring.  April was setting record lows with a cold rain falling most of the month.  It was about this time that we flipped the switch from early March to July, skipping April and May altogether.  It's been awesome to actually have a real spring this year.
agree... now if we can only cash in on a true spring severe event... would cap off a perfect spring ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 14, 2019, 08:12:36 AM
I donít think weíll completely escape some active severe weather for those who are missing it this year.  Late spring/summer MCS/MCC season may be particularly active, IMO, once summertime heat and humidity build, adding energy and instability above very wet ground widespread across the Plains and southeast. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 14, 2019, 08:35:54 AM
Do we need to rant/gripe/whine thread about this?  ;)

HAHA...I guess it is never right to complain about a lack of severe weather since it can damage....just wanting something to track in our area for once....It's been quite a long time since we had a true supercell threat in our area....I do think this year we may see a true derecho or two though during summer
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 14, 2019, 12:46:37 PM
The hits keep coming. 

1 foot+ snow expected over the Sierra Nevada Mountain range.  Hopefully, California can harness all of this water for future droughts.

While the Plains, Upper Midwest, and perhaps parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Upper South get impacted by severe weather the Wasatch Mountains will get to experience accumulating snow for nearly every time it happens.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 14, 2019, 08:24:30 PM
The amount of snow the Intermountain west, namely Colorado and Utah, have seen this past winter are practically heaven-sent with being well-above average that'll contribute to heavy runoff into rivers, particularly the Colorado.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 15, 2019, 07:52:49 AM
Spc still has parts mid south in risk for Sunday... slightly ever so went further east with threat... havenít dug into models much... sure it will be mainly a damaging wind threat for us as the main energy rapidly moves in the Great Lakes ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Flash on May 15, 2019, 10:09:01 AM
Spc still has parts mid south in risk for Sunday... slightly ever so went further east with threat... havenít dug into models much... sure it will be mainly a damaging wind threat for us as the main energy rapidly moves in the Great Lakes ....

I'll take ANY threat right now 'enhanced' or higher regardless of its specialty.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 15, 2019, 10:44:20 AM
nothing gonna happen for us it looks like....and it makes sense, this is the time of year where 80-90 percent of severe outbreaks are over the plains/upper midwest....our season for a possible tornado outbreak is basically over,

but a derecho around the ring of fire may be in our future come summertime, and the fall tornado season oct/nov is only 5 months away. Time to enjoy pool weather and backyard bbq's in the coming weeks
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 15, 2019, 06:07:41 PM
It looks like the initial round for the Plains and possibly over to our area on Sunday will probably be tempered by Veer-Back-Veer wind profiles. This means that storms will be more likely to run into each other and cluster up.  Typically Veer-Back-Veer setups feature a decent wind/hail threat but not really a solid tornado threat because the storm mode becomes more a multi-cell cluster versus the discrete or at least semi-discrete supercell mode that you want for a more noteworthy tornado threat. 

https://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/03/30/how-to-forecast-tornadoes-looking-for-what-could-go-wrong/

For more info on Veer-Back-Veer check the link above.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on May 15, 2019, 07:03:41 PM
Lord have mercy,  in this quiet severe weather season, I just drove through the worst hailstorm of my lifetime in Arlington.  Canít believe I have a windshield left.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 16, 2019, 06:54:59 AM
Long range models starting to pickup on the seasons first 90 plus degree days around the Memorial Day weekend area .... right on time ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 16, 2019, 07:04:23 AM
At least we are stair-stepping our way into summer heat this year, unlike previous years.  This weekend's mid/upper 80's should acclimate us to what's coming.  I've been enjoying these weeks of open window sleeping.  It feels like I'm camping out every night dozing off to the whippoorwill song. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on May 16, 2019, 07:28:07 AM
Good news for us ďcoolĒ summer people. JJA period on ensembles still shows below normal averages with above normal precip. Most likely the wet spring set the stage for more of the same. I think we see an early start to hurricane season too.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 16, 2019, 07:44:04 AM
Good news for us ďcoolĒ summer people. JJA period on ensembles still shows below normal averages with above normal precip. Most likely the wet spring set the stage for more of the same. I think we see an early start to hurricane season too.
doubt it very seriously we see much of a hurricane season ... with the El NiŮo taking hold plus slightly increasing as we march along the year... and Jma accuracy hasnít been up to snuff to be honest with you... would nt put much stock into that long range one way or the other ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on May 16, 2019, 08:24:23 AM
Good news for us ďcoolĒ summer people. JJA period on ensembles still shows below normal averages with above normal precip. Most likely the wet spring set the stage for more of the same. I think we see an early start to hurricane season too.
Glad to see some good news on this front. The long range GFS has been very hot post day 7 for a few runs in a row now.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on May 16, 2019, 09:25:24 AM
I will never understand you people who like to sit in the house all summer and watch it rain.  >:D
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 16, 2019, 09:38:46 AM
I will never understand you people who like to sit in the house all summer and watch it rain.  >:D
yeah... really... done enough that this past winter.... blah... lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 16, 2019, 10:08:16 AM
I will never understand you people who like to sit in the house all summer and watch it rain.  >:D

More like weekends on the deck enjoying sunshine and low 80ís while slow cooking some BBQóyour fav! ::flag::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 16, 2019, 10:19:17 AM
I will never understand you people who like to sit in the house all summer and watch it rain.  >:D

Ha- really. Not enough rain is not good either though. I like a summer with normal temperatures. Upper 80s to around 90 is just fine. I like enough 90 degree days that the pool water feels good. But, a good thunderstorm with a half inch of rain one or two days a week is good with me (not an all day rain, but I'll happily give up an hour or two in an afternoon for a nice watering of the lawns and gardens).
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on May 16, 2019, 10:20:47 AM
doubt it very seriously we see much of a hurricane season ... with the El NiŮo taking hold plus slightly increasing as we march along the year... and Jma accuracy hasnít been up to snuff to be honest with you... would nt put much stock into that long range one way or the other ...

An early start doesnít mean I think the season will go gangbusters. Those are 2 entirely different comparisons.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on May 16, 2019, 10:22:14 AM
I will never understand you people who like to sit in the house all summer and watch it rain.  >:D

Hang on. I enjoy lots of sunshine in the summer and pool time. I just donít like extended periods of drought and heat. The good news is regardless, Fall is never that far away.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Crockett on May 16, 2019, 10:56:30 AM
Hang on. I enjoy lots of sunshine in the summer and pool time. I just donít like extended periods of drought and heat. The good news is regardless, Fall is never that far away.

Regarding hurricane season, as long as there are no cyclones in the gulf during the last week of June, we good. If I sat through all this wet weather in Tennessee last fall/winter/spring only to go on vacation and get rained on, I'm quitting weather.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 16, 2019, 11:45:30 AM
Going go out on a limb bit here... think Tuesday has and will be the better chance for a decent severe event for the mid south ... gfs is showing fairly high instability and decent shear ... as for now timing is a lot better also coming in late afternoon early evening Tuesday ... to early to dig In on the main impacts just yet
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 16, 2019, 12:35:39 PM
I can't speak for everyone here, but my perfect summer day is sunny with temperatures pushing 90 by afternoon, but with the sky filling up with towering cumulus, and the sound of distant thunder as the afternoon progresses.  By 5pm, the thunder growls louder and the sky grows darker, punctuated by a sudden cooling wind, and a quick 30 minute downpour.  By 6, the sky clears for a nice, cooler evening with the yard and garden well watered. 

So, all day rain under cloudy skies?  Heck no, but the weather freak in me wouldn't mind an intense 30 minute storm at least every other day.  It brings back some of my best summer memories growing up.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 16, 2019, 03:31:48 PM
Going go out on a limb bit here... think Tuesday has and will be the better chance for a decent severe event for the mid south ... gfs is showing fairly high instability and decent shear ... as for now timing is a lot better also coming in late afternoon early evening Tuesday ... to early to dig In on the main impacts just yet

Bruce don't do it ...... don't torture yourself LOL....:). I am waiting for fall severe season
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 17, 2019, 05:30:55 AM
We had rain so heavy the roar of it on the roof woke me around 2AM and lasted for quite a while.  We even got some thunder and lightning, although it was oddly still with no wind.  To pop up like that completely unexpected was a bit surprising. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 17, 2019, 08:20:03 AM
Bruce is striking out more than Bryce Harper. 

I'd stay away from starting any threads, my dude.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: snowdog on May 17, 2019, 09:34:45 AM
Southeast heat "death-ridge" looks likely.  ::hot::

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1129394347869388801 (https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1129394347869388801)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 17, 2019, 10:20:56 AM
Bruce is striking out more than Bryce Harper. 

I'd stay away from starting any threads, my dude.
lol. Just wish I was getting paid like Bryce. Trust me i will but chance still see some Tuesday
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 17, 2019, 04:23:06 PM
Monday in the plains looks to either feature a widespread tornado outbreak or feature the MCS/potential Derecho of the year.

Backed winds, a nasty shear/CAPE combo, and weak to non-existant cap. 

Our threat on Tuesday (for West TN, West KY, NW MS peeps) is one we will probably not know till Monday Night/Early Tuesday because the overnight activity will determine our Tuesday threat level or lack of.  We could have a mean MCS moving our way, a decent to even significant severe weather event, or what we have been having so far this year which is pretty much nothing.   It all depends on Monday/Early Tuesday's activity.     
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 17, 2019, 04:50:12 PM
Monday in the plains looks to either feature a widespread tornado outbreak or feature the MCS/potential Derecho of the year.

Backed winds, a nasty shear/CAPE combo, and weak to non-existant cap. 

Our threat on Tuesday (for West TN, West KY, NW MS peeps) is one we will probably not know till Monday Night/Early Tuesday because the overnight activity will determine our Tuesday threat level or lack of.  We could have a mean MCS moving our way, a decent to even significant severe weather event, or what we have been having so far this year which is pretty much nothing.   It all depends on Monday/Early Tuesday's activity.   
well agree... Tuesday has a chance...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on May 17, 2019, 05:24:46 PM
Looks like we jump straight from the 80ís to the mid 90ís this year. GFS has record heat late next week.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 17, 2019, 08:31:11 PM
First true "death ridge" of the summer.  It's death to any precipitation or cooling thunderstorm that would attempt to develop. 

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 17, 2019, 09:55:03 PM
Very large tornado in progress near Dodge City, KS, and well over 160kts GTG on velocities.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Flash on May 18, 2019, 07:07:35 AM
First true "death ridge" of the summer.  It's death to any precipitation or cooling thunderstorm that would attempt to develop. 

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)

As much as I despise death ridges, if thereís any consolation, itís the fact rarely is our state smack dab in the middle of them. The way this year has started should somewhat put any summer 2007/2012 repeat talks to rest.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 18, 2019, 08:46:41 AM
day 3 moderate risk for southern plains... wish I  was on vacation..lol  only bad thing im seeing on hodos... is  the cap isn't very strong... things could get messy little... keeping it from getting upgraded latter to a high risk
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 18, 2019, 09:31:44 AM
Abilene, TX was hit by something earlier this morning.  A friend who works at a  nursing facility there had to evacuate the building as the walls were knocked down.

Monday looks fierce for strong to violent tornadoes (if the storm mode is able to stay discrete-semi-discrete) or if it stays a MCS then widespread 70-100MPH+ will likely occur instead.

Tuesday will depend on Monday.  West KY/TN might get involved but they will likely require a boundary or something to break the cap.   

Our first widespread 90s should follow.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 18, 2019, 09:43:21 AM
First truly muggy morning in the foothills with dewpoints nearing the upper 60's.  Welcome to summer, about on time, as we close in on Memorial Day.

As we boil under the ridge, the west sees well below normal temps under the trough.  The Plains are in for some very stormy times being caught in the middle. 


Post Merge: May 18, 2019, 09:49:56 AM
As much as I despise death ridges, if thereís any consolation, itís the fact rarely is our state smack dab in the middle of them. The way this year has started should somewhat put any summer 2007/2012 repeat talks to rest.


Thankfully, we've had an abundance of rain this winter/spring, unlike 2007.  We started that summer with drought conditions already well underway, so there was little hope to avoid record heat that year.  That was the worst summer in the last two decades for the entire southeast U.S., leaving Georgia trying to re-draw the border with Tennessee just to gain access to our river.

That court dispute was just recently struck down:

https://newschannel9.com/news/local/tennessee-border-dispute-dead-after-georgia-governor-vetoes-bill-seeking-land-water-05-14-2019 (https://newschannel9.com/news/local/tennessee-border-dispute-dead-after-georgia-governor-vetoes-bill-seeking-land-water-05-14-2019)
 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 18, 2019, 10:24:43 AM
Itís like someone flipped a switch- BAM itís summer from now on I guess. ::hot::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 18, 2019, 11:03:16 AM
The HRRR is showing some discrete cells managing to get into MEG's western counties in AR before everything falls apart.  Maybe worth keeping an eye on today for those of us on the western side of the state.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 18, 2019, 02:34:05 PM
After being juicy here the last couple of days with DP around 70 the strong south wind must be pulling dry air. DP has fell all day. Down to 60 at the moment.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 18, 2019, 02:50:33 PM
After being juicy here the last couple of days with DP around 70 the strong south wind must be pulling dry air. DP has fell all day. Down to 60 at the moment.
doubt that. They just mixed out for now ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 18, 2019, 04:08:37 PM
Some unforecasted showers are popping up on radar in Mid TN
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 18, 2019, 04:46:11 PM
One advantage to living near mountains is storms can roll off in the heat of the afternoon.  We just had about a third of inch in a quick cooling downpour after a cloudless day near 90.  I'm down to 73 now. I don't have to water the tomatoes now.  Perfect.

And just noticed a severe t-storm warning has been issued for neighboring Blount County for one of these mountain induced thunderstorms.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 18, 2019, 05:28:37 PM
We're getting wind and thunder in west Knoxville now from the warned storms coming north out of Blount County.   I do like a good thunderstorm at the end of a hot summer day.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Mister2011 on May 18, 2019, 05:29:13 PM
Yep, just got a ton of hail (little bigger than pea sized), heavy rain, and wind near Meghee Tyson!

Most hail I've seen in a while, looked like a dusting of snow  ::snowman::

61 MPH gust at TYS  ::wow::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 18, 2019, 05:43:24 PM
Knoxville is under a Significant Weather Advisory now until 7. Torrential rain and high winds at the house right now.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 18, 2019, 05:43:30 PM
There are some discrete cells firing up in MEGs CWA and are worth some vigilance. We are just barely on the edge of the enhanced threat line, but all it takes is one storm to do damage.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 18, 2019, 06:07:33 PM
We're getting wind and thunder in west Knoxville now from the warned storms coming north out of Blount County.   I do like a good thunderstorm at the end of a hot summer day.

Been a good ending to a hot day.  After pushing 90, I'm ending the day at 68 with a good breeze from the outflow coming from the storms heading to my west out of Blount Co.  Not too shabby.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 18, 2019, 06:18:21 PM
There are some discrete cells firing up in MEGs CWA and are worth some vigilance. We are just barely on the edge of the enhanced threat line, but all it takes is one storm to do damage.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
good call bugalou... storm just ne of pine bluff is tornado warned ....

Post Merge: May 18, 2019, 06:34:20 PM
Monday looking down right gruesome for southern plains that afternoon ... classic dry line setup with perfect vertical shear for rotation cells...could be our first high risk setup of year ... parameters could also support our first ef5 tornado 🌪 this year ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 18, 2019, 06:44:13 PM
Taken from the discrete cell headed into Shelby County (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190518/ec97692ec7fd47ec3473c9d63b8af110.jpg)

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 18, 2019, 06:48:38 PM
SVR Tístorm Watch now in effect for Memphis
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 18, 2019, 07:06:18 PM
Been a pretty interesting day for a weather nerd.  Storms that developed off the mountains sent a gust front into the east TN valley, and the storms survived well into northeast TN.  And even though the storms are long gone from the mountains, and the sun is peaking out as it sets, we are still hearing rumbling thunder from the decaying anvil tops that linger here from the spider web lightning that continues to fill the sky.  Pretty awesome to see with no rain falling, and the sun slipping below the horizon. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 18, 2019, 07:40:51 PM
Nothing severe but the gust front in NEA is throwing up an impressive dust storm. Near 0 visibility in some spots that I drove through. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 19, 2019, 08:15:14 AM
https://www.facebook.com/20435490078/posts/10156082379105079?s=633774285&v=e&sfns=mo

...for those who need a storm chasing fix.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 19, 2019, 01:20:26 PM
Areas of upstate NY have been placed in both a TOR Watch and SVR Tístorm Watch before Macon has even been placed in either.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 19, 2019, 06:25:13 PM
Looks like tomorrow is the day. Nw Texas into Oklahoma looks to be ripe for significant tornadoes.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 19, 2019, 06:28:30 PM
Some interesting mini supercells firing south of Memphis.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 19, 2019, 07:10:09 PM
There will be a whole lot of chaser convergence pretty much anywhere from Lubbock/Amarillo over to West/Southwest Oklahoma.  Hope everyone from chasers to the towns themselves is ready for it.  This event has gotten the hype so everybody who has the means to chase whether they are experienced or whether they don't know what they are doing but they have a Snapchat and Instagram account will be out there.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 19, 2019, 07:20:48 PM
There will be a whole lot of chaser convergence pretty much anywhere from Lubbock/Amarillo over to West/Southwest Oklahoma.  Hope everyone from chasers to the towns themselves is ready for it.  This event has gotten the hype so everybody who has the means to chase whether they are experienced or whether they don't know what they are doing but they have a Snapchat and Instagram account will be out there.   
give anything to be right there with them .... jealous .
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on May 19, 2019, 07:27:21 PM
There will be a whole lot of chaser convergence pretty much anywhere from Lubbock/Amarillo over to West/Southwest Oklahoma.  Hope everyone from chasers to the towns themselves is ready for it.  This event has gotten the hype so everybody who has the means to chase whether they are experienced or whether they don't know what they are doing but they have a Snapchat and Instagram account will be out there.   
And the nice thing about that area is the population density is about as low as anywhere. You get the awe without the damage (hopefully- some people and cows do live there).
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 19, 2019, 07:35:46 PM
Seriously, if anyone here wants to commit to a 2020 chase I will commit to taking 2 weeks off work as well as helping fund hotels, food, and gas.  Id consider myself a journeyman at storm chaser meteorology and would like someone with more experience than me involved. Its really something I want to do once.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 19, 2019, 08:26:11 PM
The big question is the storm mode especially up around the more populated areas along I-40.  If it is messy then widespread severe weather is still likely but it becomes more of a severe thunderstorm and not as much of a tornado outbreak, and the strong to violent tornado threat is drastically reduced.   If stays discrete or semi-discrete then it is trouble for both areas along I-40 as well as the areas further south/southwest towards Childress and perhaps even as far south as parts of the Permian Basin. 

For chasing probably the Lubbock to Childress, TX to Altus, OK corridor probably holds the most promise and is the best shot for truly discrete storms. 

The weak cap holds the key between a severe slop fest and a true plains outbreak.     
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 19, 2019, 08:37:31 PM
Seriously, if anyone here wants to commit to a 2020 chase I will commit to taking 2 weeks off work as well as helping fund hotels, food, and gas.  Id consider myself a journeyman at storm chaser meteorology and would like someone with more experience than me involved. Its really something I want to do once.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
I canít commit at the moment but I am seriously interested.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 19, 2019, 08:41:29 PM
really looks like a red letter day shaping up for the good people of texas and Oklahoma.....I am feeling a high risk coming at some point tomorrow a little west and south of okc down into north texas
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 19, 2019, 09:11:50 PM
The HRRR also suggests locally up to 11 inches of rain in places from Central Oklahoma to far SW Missouri on top of the severe weather/tornadoes.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Drifter49 on May 19, 2019, 09:14:30 PM
I canít commit at the moment but I am seriously interested.

Is Bruce gonna be driving the crazy train


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 19, 2019, 09:56:59 PM
[attachimg=2]

The HRRR 0Z run presents:

Dance With the Supercells   

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 19, 2019, 10:28:38 PM
90 contour poping up south central Oklahoma ...

Post Merge: May 19, 2019, 10:37:18 PM
If spc puts much stock In the latest hrrr... there will be a High risk put out by them in morning update ...

Post Merge: May 20, 2019, 01:56:59 AM
90 contour poping up south central Oklahoma ...

Post Merge: May 19, 2019, 10:37:18 PM
If spc puts much stock In the latest hrrr... there will be a High risk put out by them in morning update ...
bingo... high risk it is ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 06:38:15 AM
Quote
   RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon along the instability
   corridor from Childress, Texas northeastward to Clinton, Oklahoma
   show MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50
   to 65 kt range. In addition, hodographs are large and looped with
   0-1 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt range.
This environment
   should be very favorable for supercells and tornadoes. 0-3 km
   storm-relative helicities are forecast to steadily increase from
   about 300 m2/s2 in the late afternoon to about 450 m2/s2 by early
   evening as an anomalously strong low-level jet becomes better
   focused. This will be ideal for a tornado outbreak with strong
   tornadoes upstream and to the west of the low-level jet.

Yikes!!! 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 20, 2019, 06:45:47 AM
Yikes!!!
yeah this environment screams violent tornadoes 🌪 even ... good chance we will see   First ef5 of this season ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 06:49:40 AM
Looking like a, mainly, later afternoon/evening event too...lasting through the night as well.

This may be one we remember for years to come.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 20, 2019, 07:06:11 AM
It's not often you see wording like this:

Quote
   ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Across the Southern Plains Today Into
   Tonight...

   ...Southern and Central Plains...
   An impressive and potent upper-level trough will move quickly
   eastward across the Desert Southwest today as a powerful 75 to 90
   knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the trough. Ahead of the
   system, a corridor of strong instability is forecast across the
   Southern Plains from west Texas into the eastern Texas Panhandle and
   eastward into western and central Oklahoma. This combined with steep
   mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level shear will be very
   favorable for severe storms. As the mid-level jet ejects
   northeastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon and
   evening, a tornado outbreak is likely across the southern Plains.
   The tornado outbreak is expected to continue into the overnight
   period. This event should result in a significant threat to life and
   property.

Meanwhile, we're settling into a dry pattern for the next week. With highs in the 90s and little rainfall, I may have to water the fescue late week.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 20, 2019, 07:18:43 AM
Today is the anniversary of the devastating Moore, OK tornado of 2013.  Of course, that same year on 5/31, the widest tornado on record occurred at El Reno, OK.  This time of the year is just not good for Oklahoma.

It's a good time to remember the Twistex team that lost their lives during that El Reno tornado.  I've watched about every YouTube video of that monster, and it never ceases to amaze me how massive that circulation was.  It was something out of a movie like Twister.  Here's hoping nothing similar happens this May.



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 08:02:11 AM
The High Risk just jumped east to include Oklahoma City and the surrounding metro area.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 20, 2019, 08:07:55 AM
The High Risk just jumped east to include Oklahoma City and the surrounding metro area.
Honestly couldn't be much worse of an actual date, save for May 3rd.

Nearly all OKC metro area schools are closed today because of the threat.

The true meat of the discussion for the new update.
Quote
A serious outbreak of destructive, tornadic supercells is likely
   over parts of this region this afternoon into evening, especially in
   the high- and moderate-risk areas.  Given the expected fast storm
   motions, especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the
   best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their
   already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustain
   wide, long-track tornadoes.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 08:29:47 AM
Tinker AFB is closing.  Never heard of an armed forces installation closing for a weather threat.  I'm sure it happens, but its a first for me.

This sounding though...Midland, TX

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2ce0ne1.png)

(h/t @WxDeFlitch via andyhb)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 08:40:56 AM
I am really feeling bad for the people in Moore today.  Its the anniversary of their most recent F-5 and the fact that this major threat is happening today has GOT to have those poor people on edge.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 20, 2019, 08:41:10 AM
This is the kind of thing I hope busts.

I suspect we might see some shock and awe storm chase videos airing by tonight.

Hope/pray for the safety and good decisions of storm chasers... and that no one becomes a statistic.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Drifter49 on May 20, 2019, 08:42:06 AM
I am really feeling bad for the people in Moore today.  Its the anniversary of their most recent F-5 and the fact that this major threat is happening today has GOT to have those poor people on edge.

I definitely donít want to be there!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 09:27:55 AM
 ::wow:: ::wow:: ::wow:: :o :o :o

Quote
ďGiven the expected fast storm motions, especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustain wide, long-track tornadoes.Ē

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/1130463314180550656
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: MSR041933 on May 20, 2019, 10:38:44 AM
Tinker AFB is closing.  Never heard of an armed forces installation closing for a weather threat.  I'm sure it happens, but its a first for me.

This sounding though...Midland, TX

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2ce0ne1.png)

(h/t @WxDeFlitch via andyhb)

👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 11:20:29 AM
looks like a pds watch coming by 1pm
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 11:37:17 AM
Up to 45% hatched TOR zone now...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 20, 2019, 11:44:54 AM
Up to 45% hatched TOR zone now...
yeah  it includes all the Oklahoma city metro also... fairly highly populated area... ::wow::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 11:58:57 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/mcd0699.gif)

IIRC, convective rolls are indicative of a highly favorable environment for tornadic development.  Or maybe that was gravity waves?  Seems one of the two (or both) were noticed during the Super Outbreak of 74 and again in 2011.

OUN WCM said in chat that they'll be zipping out tornado warnings based on storm characteristics (supercellular) and not radar data due to atmospheric conditions. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 20, 2019, 12:01:44 PM
The crest of the roll acts as a focusing mechanism for stronger upward vertical motion, thus higher chances of breaking a cap, if one exists, and in general allowing for thunderstorm development.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 20, 2019, 12:02:00 PM
If I could somehow slip into a portal to OK in the next hour Iíd be a happy man.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 12:03:54 PM
The crest of the roll acts as a focusing mechanism for stronger upward vertical motion, thus higher chances of breaking a cap, if one exists, and in general allowing for thunderstorm development.

SPC disco mentioned a free warm sector so I'm not sure how much of a cap there is.  If they're mentioning explosive development, its unlikely there's any inhibition.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 20, 2019, 12:22:42 PM
(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/CONUS/02/1250x750.jpg)

Definitely see the convective rolls on satellite
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 01:21:55 PM
Our first storms are beginning to form.  It won't be too much longer before we have a slew of severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings all over TX/OK.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 01:23:40 PM
Our first storms are beginning to form.  It won't be too much longer before we have a slew of severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings all over TX/OK.

Watching on GR3 now.  It looks like junk convection ATM, but I bet it blooms to monsters here in the next 30 minutes.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 01:30:23 PM
PDS Watch already hoisted...18z balloon data already coming in.  Let's just say things aren't looking good...  :o ::wow:: ::wow::

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/mcd0702.gif)

Post Merge: May 20, 2019, 01:34:40 PM
PDS inbound for Norman/Ok City...

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/mcd0703.gif)

(http://i68.tinypic.com/314oz6h.png)

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1130542973060562946
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 01:42:20 PM
All probs are maxed out on the Oklahoma PDS watch.  Only the 2nd time that has ever happened.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 01:42:58 PM
All probs are maxed out on the Oklahoma PDS watch.  Only the 2nd time that has ever happened.

The only other time?

4/27/11
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 20, 2019, 01:53:33 PM
Things escalating quickly. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 01:57:16 PM
The only other time?

4/27/11

Correct.  We have 3 storms in the Southern TX Panhandle that have a world of potential.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 02:01:41 PM
PDS Watch already hoisted...18z balloon data already coming in.  Let's just say things aren't looking good...  :o ::wow:: ::wow::

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/mcd0702.gif)

Post Merge: May 20, 2019, 01:34:40 PM
PDS inbound for Norman/Ok City...

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/mcd0703.gif)

(http://i68.tinypic.com/314oz6h.png)

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1130542973060562946

Jesus.  People are going to die today.  :(
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 02:06:04 PM
Jesus.  People are going to die today.  :(

Reallllly hope you're wrong, but admittedly know you're probably right. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 02:17:20 PM
Jesus.  People are going to die today.  :(

The only saving grace is that there is still a lot of rural areas around if the storms can avoid going near I-40 or I-35 at peak intensity.  It also will depend on making sure that safe chasing is conducted and the amateurs and lookie loo's are managed.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 02:22:22 PM
Storms are popping.  Just got the first TOR:

Quote
469
WFUS54 KLUB 201921
TORLUB
TXC125-345-201945-
/O.NEW.KLUB.TO.W.0014.190520T1921Z-190520T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
221 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Dickens County in northwestern Texas...
  Southern Motley County in northwestern Texas...

* Until 245 PM CDT.
   
* At 221 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 4 miles northeast of Mcadoo, or 12 miles northwest of
  Dickens, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Matador, Mcadoo and Roaring Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3368 10097 3372 10104 3387 10104 3412 10091
      3394 10063
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 217DEG 43KT 3377 10096

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

26



Post Merge: May 20, 2019, 02:24:39 PM
Thus far storms are pretty close together.  This maybe detrimental to Tornado formation.  Way to early to say for sure though.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 02:25:48 PM
That one is already showing some good signs of rotation.  The one heading towards Paducah, TX will probably need to be watched as well.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 02:26:24 PM
Tornado Tech has a funnel on camera:
https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 02:30:23 PM
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 02:31:40 PM
Is it just me are or things more "clustery" than discrete ? Obviously still a bad day....and plenty of time for things to change
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 02:38:08 PM
Really messy presentation thus far.  Nothing is going to get going with storms so bunched up.
It does look like new cells are starting to pop in SW OK though that may be worth watching.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 20, 2019, 02:45:09 PM
Really messy presentation thus far.  Nothing is going to get going with storms so bunched up.
It does look like new cells are starting to pop in SW OK though that may be worth watching.
thinking all along was the second batch of convection was going to be the main show... these are just laying down outflows .... latest hrrr has a lot more spacing between cells with the cells later... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 20, 2019, 02:47:12 PM
Really messy presentation thus far.  Nothing is going to get going with storms so bunched up.
It does look like new cells are starting to pop in SW OK though that may be worth watching.
Yep, as expected so far though.

It's not even 1500 so the stronger cells will become more dominant and will rob and kill other less intense cells.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 20, 2019, 02:59:15 PM
TOR for the storm south of El Reno.  Couplet has been getting stronger the last few scans.

Also, a forklift driver in El Reno has been rushed to the hospital after being struck by lightening per Twitter.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 03:02:49 PM
The Paducah/Russellville, TX supercell cluster will prove to be an early test to Nashville Rugger's hypothesis.   It looks like the Russellville, TX one will probably run into the Paducah, TX storm.  It could kill both storms or it could make the Paducah, TX one dominant and capable of producing significant tornadoes.  We will find out soon enough.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 20, 2019, 03:04:53 PM
As of right now, my $$$ is on the Paducah cell becoming the dominant as it is in front, larger over all, and also has complete unrestricted inflow from the south and east. The last note appears to hold true for at least the next 30-60 minutes.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 03:07:14 PM
Really messy presentation thus far.  Nothing is going to get going with storms so bunched up.
It does look like new cells are starting to pop in SW OK though that may be worth watching.

Ok so I wasn't alone thinking it was a bit messy/and clustery lol
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 03:11:05 PM
There's no cap so a frog fart could spawn a supercell.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 03:11:16 PM
As of right now, my $$$ is on the Paducah cell becoming the dominant as it is in front, larger over all, and also has complete unrestricted inflow from the south and east. The last note appears to hold true for at least the next 30-60 minutes.

Agree completely and wouldn't be surprised to see a couple new cells pop NE of this one.

Post Merge: May 20, 2019, 03:48:20 PM
Radar presentation has improved.  Things look to be getting dangerous over the next couple hours.  Several good looking cells already warned.

Post Merge: May 20, 2019, 03:51:09 PM
Cell near Kirkland/Childress is about to produce a tornado. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 03:52:19 PM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/mcd0705.gif)

Quote
Short-term model guidance has trended away from a possible scenario
   of discrete storm development over south-central OK.  The most
   probable scenario involves several tornadic supercells likely moving
   across southwest OK and approaching the I-40 corridor west of the
   OKC metro.

Thank God.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 03:54:35 PM
Cell north of OKC is about to or is current producing a tornado.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 20, 2019, 03:56:48 PM
Cell north of OKC is about to or is current producing a tornado.
It's been producing for nearly 20 minutes, with two separate tornadoes for a while.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 03:58:27 PM
Cell near Texola and Erick appears to have some debris on DP CC with a decent couplet.  Almost certainly a tornado on the ground there.

Post Merge: May 20, 2019, 04:05:04 PM
meh.  Everything is going QLS
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 04:07:20 PM
It's been producing for nearly 20 minutes, with two separate tornadoes for a while.

Yep.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2hwmgk5.png)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 04:11:29 PM
Unless things really start cranking in next hour....it is not going to be a discrete type of outbreak...still "very dangerous" but not as bad as it could have been imo
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 04:14:58 PM
Looks like most of the convection is N of the warm/stationary front.  Nearly zero convection in the true warm sector.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 04:15:18 PM
Radar feeds are getting hammered, making it hard to now-cast.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 04:16:15 PM
Unless things really start cranking in next hour....it is not going to be a discrete type of outbreak...still "very dangerous" but not as bad as it could have been imo

I think it is still too early to tell, even if within the next hour things still arenít cranking.

Give it until ~7-8 pm

Also, Lubbock radar site just got hammered by winds of 70-80 mph from what it looks like.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 04:17:46 PM
I think it is still too early to tell, even if within the next hour things still arenít cranking.

Give it until ~7-8 pm

LLJ, FTW.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 04:18:06 PM
I think it is still too early to tell, even if within the next hour things still arenít cranking.

Give it until ~7-8 pm

Yeah those cells in Texas look to mean business if they can get into OK where the greater shear is present.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 04:37:12 PM
Those cells south of Lubbock are ones to watch. Over the next few hours they are going to be moving into a very unstable airmass, with plenty of shear to boot.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 04:44:32 PM
The lead storm in TX (near Estelline) needs a Tornado Warning.  If that far SW OK can bust through the CAP it has strong to violent tornado potential.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 20, 2019, 04:47:25 PM
Those cells coming out of north Texas panhandle starting to get better spaced apart also...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 04:48:19 PM
The lead storm in TX (near Estelline) needs a Tornado Warning.  If that far SW OK can bust through the CAP it has strong to violent tornado potential.   

That's the cell to watch....it is quite bite itself....that one could be scary
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on May 20, 2019, 05:05:11 PM
Looks like a hook is racing toward Mangum, OK
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 05:14:13 PM
The Magnum, OK storm has the best rotation and display I have seen all day.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 20, 2019, 05:17:29 PM
Large tornado on the ground with that once live on KOCO news
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 05:20:42 PM
The Magnum, OK storm has the best rotation and display I have seen all day.

First long tracker of the day it looks like
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 05:27:41 PM
Downtown Magnum just dodged a bullet.  Tornadoes on the ground near Perry, OK. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 05:42:23 PM
Tight couplet on the cell SE of Odessa, TX.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 05:48:20 PM
Reports that a tornado tracked southeast of Odessa and Midland.  Thankfully it may have mostly impacted oil fields and not the towns themselves. 

Post Merge: May 20, 2019, 05:52:00 PM
There is a freaking Winter Weather Advisory in the Nebraska Panhandle in late May.  I repeat a freaking Winter Weather Advisory in the Nebraska Panhandle in late May.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 20, 2019, 06:56:09 PM
Another cell getting its act together SE of Midland. One of the better radar presentations of the day.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 07:08:27 PM
The West TX cells have obtained enough separation to allow for optimum tornado formation.  Unlike the hotmess that is occurring from SW Missouri down across Oklahoma.     
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 20, 2019, 07:12:58 PM
That, the crashing OFB from the northwest, and then (probably biggest factor) has been the incredibly saturated atmosphere limiting/inhibiting explosive storm growth.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 07:40:24 PM
The fine folks of Oklahoma are about to forget all about the underperforming severe/tornado event because a major flash flooding event is in progress now.   You have some heavy thunderstorms just moving southwest to northeast like a train. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 08:05:59 PM
I feel bad for SPC and the NWS offices. They are going to get bombs tossed at them tommorow with such an under performing event. I'm not going to call it a bust as there have been tornados today, but its still going to be perceived this way.

Quite honestly, it maybe time to reanalyze our models.  There have been a rash of false positives of lately and I cannot explain. All data pointed towards a major event today but thus far it seems we have gotten a low end medium risk event.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 08:52:28 PM
I feel bad for SPC and the NWS offices. They are going to get bombs tossed at them tommorow with such an under performing event. I'm not going to call it a bust as there have been tornados today, but its still going to be perceived this way.

Quite honestly, it maybe time to reanalyze our models.  There have been a rash of false positives of lately and I cannot explain. All data pointed towards a major event today but thus far it seems we have gotten a low end medium risk event.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Agreed.....I thought a high risk was warranted because it was a substantial threat....30% chances also means that there is a 70% chance it might not occur.

The problem is, at 3-4 pm I think we could ALL tell it was not gonna be as bad as predicted and spc/nws would not back down from the "multiple discrete cell" talk or back down from a high risk....should have backed it down to a MOD risk when it became evident.

Now in just speaking of weather comparisons, this one reminds me of our 2010 flood event....mod and high risk turned into our massive floods of training thunderstorms
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 20, 2019, 08:55:39 PM
We need to invest a ton into actual weather forecasting and shift funding away from the global warming division. Also maybe just stop referring to past events as a comparison of what MIGHT happen.  Same goes for Mets as well.  They deserve part of the heck they catch tomorrow.  I saw so many references to 2011 today on social media.  Can we not just say here is what might happen if the cards fall right so pay close attention to the weather today?

Instead we get a public in which most canít even find themselves in a map all worked up with visions of F5 tornados and hundreds dead.  People take that as gospel truth these days and canít see that weather has a lot of variables that can prevent an event. 

Common sense weather coverage went out the door with ratings wars and Mets making Facebook videos showing every computer run and what might be.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 20, 2019, 09:05:44 PM
We need to invest a ton into actual weather forecasting and shift funding away from the global warming division. Also maybe just stop referring to past events as a comparison of what MIGHT happen.  Same goes for Mets as well.  They deserve part of the heck they catch tomorrow.  I saw so many references to 2011 today on social media.  Can we not just say here is what might happen if the cards fall right so pay close attention to the weather today?

Instead we get a public in which most canít even find themselves in a map all worked up with visions of F5 tornados and hundreds dead.  People take that as gospel truth these days and canít see that weather has a lot of variables that can prevent an event. 

Common sense weather coverage went out the door with ratings wars and Mets making Facebook videos showing every computer run and what might be.

You said that better than I ever could have :) . 2011 was a once every 40 year type of an event. This system is a very bad severe weather event without a doubt.....but comparing events to past events before the current one even happens is a mistake that many mets/stations do and scares the general public. Bottom line is, there was a significant threat today and spc/nws did their best....
but again I think I posted around 3 or 4 pm today it was evident at that time the massive supercell outbreak was not going to materialize yet they kept using discrete supercell talk/high risk and pds watches....I think that is why people will complain about the good hard working people at spc
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 20, 2019, 09:11:28 PM
I personally think a lot of prayers were answered this evening... plain and simple....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 20, 2019, 09:12:27 PM
We need to invest a ton into actual weather forecasting and shift funding away from the global warming division. Also maybe just stop referring to past events as a comparison of what MIGHT happen.  Same goes for Mets as well.  They deserve part of the heck they catch tomorrow.  I saw so many references to 2011 today on social media.  Can we not just say here is what might happen if the cards fall right so pay close attention to the weather today?

Instead we get a public in which most canít even find themselves in a map all worked up with visions of F5 tornados and hundreds dead.  People take that as gospel truth these days and canít see that weather has a lot of variables that can prevent an event. 

Common sense weather coverage went out the door with ratings wars and Mets making Facebook videos showing every computer run and what might be.

Those days are long gone my friend. Once the general public gained access to online weather models and forums, every idiot in the world is now an amateur forecaster and preaches each run as the gospel. I do believe that NOAA/NWS etc have a responsibility at this point in time to take this issue seriously and come up with a solution.

As far as putting more funding towards forecasting/models, Obama cut 36 million from NWS in 2012. Trump wants to cut 75 million from NWS in his new budget. Don't see that getting any better anytime soon unfortunately.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2019, 09:37:33 PM
Really with this setup, the safety fails worked.  This was a classic big picture setup.  The 500mb was perfect, plenty of CAPE, a raging low-level jet, you name it.  As always gets discussed it is the small issues.  This is a field where if a wind vector is supposed to blow due south and it veers slightly off then you just changed the storm mode.  In this case, it was storm spacing, an overzealous outflow boundary,  and a little bit of CIN in south-central Oklahoma that worked to cause this event to underperform.   

With that being said I do think caution needs to be used when determining threats.  We need to stay away from past comparisons and focus on the threats.  We do need to focus our attention at making our models especially our short term models better (the HRRR struggles with capping and CIN and that kinda stuff). 

In reality, we still have some work to do and sometimes events bust.  We had this same conversation with 02/23/2019, 04/05/2017, 02/28/2011, 04/24/2009, 04/10/2008, and 04/11/2005. This isn't something that has recently happened we have struggled at times with false positives.   

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 20, 2019, 09:42:09 PM



As far as putting more funding towards forecasting/models, Obama cut 36 million from NWS in 2012. Trump wants to cut 75 million from NWS in his new budget. Don't see that getting any better anytime soon unfortunately.

Bingo.  People don't care until it affects them but it affects them eventually because people don't care.  I think its completely stupid to underfund an agency that helps predict phenomenon that can literally cost billions of dollars to states, yet  the first busted forecast is used as fodder to cut budgets. In sciences that are not completely understood, politics provide zero value towards the goal of better understanding it, and can actively trigger negative feedback loops driven by non scientific people. These people feel like they are doing something but in the end they are just damaging all of us as the weather does not factor in politics or opinion. It will do what it does despite all the rhetoric.

We must do better as forces abiding by the laws of nature will continue on regardless of humans.

Sent from my P027 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 20, 2019, 09:42:49 PM
I personally think a lot of prayers were answered this evening... plain and simple....

Bruce just laid one out for us.   ::applause:: ::applause::

In all seriousness, the risk warranted the HIGH.  Forecasters can't get washed up in what will happen.  They must forecast what COULD happen.  I'm sure this threat will be dissected again and again, and I'm far from a degreed scientist, but it seems to me that the warm front didn't progress as far north as had been forecast and the inhibition eroded much earlier than anticipated allowing junk convection with the odd supercell to become the primary storm mode.  Just throwing ::poo:: and seeing what sticks.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 20, 2019, 10:03:09 PM
Still some pretty good cells going right now just north of Abilene. The one near Hamlin right now is textbook.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 20, 2019, 10:49:37 PM
I personally think a lot of prayers were answered this evening... plain and simple....

Very true

All in all it was just a weird day.  The one cell that put down a decent tornado was done after 5 min.  I watched on KOCO and it went from wedge to rope in the blink of the eye, when it normally would have become a long tracked nightmare. 

Thankful either way.  While I love watching everything unfold and the awesomeness of a tornado, Iíve been through my fair share and wouldnít wish that on anybody. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 21, 2019, 06:53:06 AM
After some of the monster storms of recent years, they certainly deserve a break or bust or whatever you call it.  While the chasers were probably disappointed, the actual residents who live there are breathing a sigh of relief, along with prayers of thanks. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 21, 2019, 08:40:00 AM
Seeing snow photos from friends and family east of the front range in Colorado (Colorado Springs and other places). Looks like a heavy, wet snow. Doesn't look like that cold air will ever make it anywhere near here.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Flash on May 21, 2019, 11:32:53 AM
We need to invest a ton into actual weather forecasting and shift funding away from the global warming division. Also maybe just stop referring to past events as a comparison of what MIGHT happen.  Same goes for Mets as well.  They deserve part of the heck they catch tomorrow.  I saw so many references to 2011 today on social media.  Can we not just say here is what might happen if the cards fall right so pay close attention to the weather today?

Instead we get a public in which most canít even find themselves in a map all worked up with visions of F5 tornados and hundreds dead.  People take that as gospel truth these days and canít see that weather has a lot of variables that can prevent an event. 

Common sense weather coverage went out the door with ratings wars and Mets making Facebook videos showing every computer run and what might be.

I think it's okay to mention past events in the frame of, 'This is the most comprehensive setup since'...but I agree that many in the weather community have become too analog-dependent (I learned this hard way when composing my winter weather forecast last year). While it doesn't hurt to use analogs for internal reference, external mention should be minimized in this social media age since audiences at large lack context. Each present set of values and indices will forever be unique to the second in time they occur in. That's part of the foundation of meteorology.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: schneitzeit on May 21, 2019, 01:31:48 PM
We need to invest a ton into actual weather forecasting and shift funding away from the global warming division.

I disagree with this sentiment entirely.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 21, 2019, 01:56:05 PM
I think it's okay to mention past events in the frame of, 'This is the most comprehensive setup since'...but I agree that many in the weather community have been become too analog-dependent (I learned this hard way when composing my winter weather forecast last year). While it doesn't hurt to use analogs for internal reference, external mention should be minimized in this social media age since audiences at large lack context. Each present set of values and indices will forever be unique to the second in time they occur in. That's part of the foundation of meteorology.


I think part of the problem is I heard some mets the day of and before this outbreak say " we ARE going to have a major outbreak...we ARE going to have multiple long track violent tornadoes" . That is ALWAYS a mistake to do.
Nobody is better at it in my opinion than James Spann , and he will usually say something to the effect of just explaining the dynamics of the storm system and that things are possible but we will just have to watch radar trends as the event develops...and that is what should have been done yesterday.
Nothing wrong with having a high risk because it was warranted .... however once radar trends began to show that it was just NOT going to happen (by as early as 3pm everything was clustered and becoming congealed) threats should have been reduced.
There needs to be a way to reduce a PDS tornado watch during the event into a standard tornado watch also if things are not developing imo
Title: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 21, 2019, 04:42:51 PM
I will say- it's kind of amazing that there's been such a dynamic system out west and into the Plains, bringing snow, severe weather, and flooding... and, we get quite literally nothing from it. It appears to be getting gradually hotter and drier over the next few days. That ridge is stout.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 21, 2019, 05:31:49 PM
I will say- it's kind of amazing that there's been such a dynamic system out west and into the Plains, bringing snow, severe weather, and flooding... and, we get quite literally nothing from it. It appears to be getting gradually hotter and drier of the next few days. That ridge is stout.
yeah. afraid our weather  fixing to get into snooze fest mode big time now ... just the way we roll now these days ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on May 21, 2019, 06:57:20 PM
My sister is in Denver for work this week. She sent me a picture of their snow. Obviously a very dynamic system.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 21, 2019, 07:32:25 PM
Looks like the NWS radar is down. As in all of it. Poof.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 21, 2019, 07:39:16 PM
Wow, how does that happen?  And is it just via internet viewing?  Surely, local NWS offices can still view their own radar.   ::pondering::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 21, 2019, 08:42:32 PM
Today certainly wasn't a bust for the STL area, with a violent tornado in the far western edge of the metro and numerous funnel clouds, including 3 I saw from my apartment tower in Central West End.

Good times and all the sirens you could ever want to hear.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 21, 2019, 09:58:05 PM
I think this is a great idea that needs to be repeated everywhere.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/billboards-to-display-active-tornado-warnings-in-nashville?fbclid=IwAR2p0i9G4-FT7NCxYFHn7v0zw06AEKalPPnYFlp3pTSRGYKl8yqLs_anhVY (https://www.newschannel5.com/news/billboards-to-display-active-tornado-warnings-in-nashville?fbclid=IwAR2p0i9G4-FT7NCxYFHn7v0zw06AEKalPPnYFlp3pTSRGYKl8yqLs_anhVY)

Quote
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) ó New digital billboards in Nashville won't be advertising the next new product, but rather keeping you safe by alerting you to issued Tornado Warnings.

Wingate Media will be displaying Tornado Warnings on its digital billboards, when the alerts are issued by the National Weather Service. Wingate Media President Ike Wingate said the idea came from a local billboard company advertising in Arkansas.Storm 5 meteorologist Bree Smith understands the importance in alerting the public in the event of severe weather.

"Sirens and severe weather warnings are how you know you're in danger and you can't make the right decision to get to safety if you don't know you need to do that," said Smith/

From now and into the future the Wingate Media billboards will be displaying active NWS tornado warnings in Nashville.

"I think billboards are great; anyway that we can get the information out there is going to empower people to make the decision that they need to seek shelter," said Smith.

The National Weather Service will send out an alert for a tornado warning in the Nashville Davidson County areas; the same alerts people get on cellphone, TV and radio, and now those same tornado warnings will be displayed on thedigital billboards.

"In the event of severe weather obviously moments matter, seconds can save lives .When it comes to having something that can serve the community well if we can be a use in that, we want to do that," said Wingate.

Wingate says the digital billboards in Nashville will be at Murfreesboro Pike and Polk Avenue, and Lebanon Road and Fesslers Lane.

"We want to be there in that moment, so they see it and they take shelter because in that situation a few minutes can make all the difference," said Wingate.

The billboards will be electronically synced with alerts from the NWS, meaning they disappear when the warnings expire.

There are similar digital tornado billboards in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 22, 2019, 09:54:16 AM
The dying line of showers has entered West TN. That's all that's left of the system that caused all the hubbub out west earlier this week.

Doesn't look like it will make it this far east... with mostly sunny skies in the forecast here.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 22, 2019, 09:55:06 AM
The dying line of showers has entered West TN. That's all that's left of the system that caused all the hubbub out west earlier this week.

Doesn't look like it will make it this far east with mostly sunny skies in the forecast.

NEXT!  ::coffee::

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 10:18:02 AM
♫♫ Where in the world is Carmen San Diego upper level ridge? ♫♫

(https://i.imgur.com/xFLb9R4.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 22, 2019, 11:37:05 AM
Parts of NE OK, SE KS, & W MO upgraded to a MDT risk in both severe weather and flooding potential.

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 02:37:14 PM
PDS tornado watch for parts of TX and OK. Quite surprised and this day is likely to be the sneaker of the period.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 22, 2019, 02:37:19 PM


Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 10:18:02 AM
♫♫ Where in the world is Carmen San Diego upper level ridge? ♫♫

(https://i.imgur.com/xFLb9R4.jpg)

And it burns burns burns, the ring of fire, the ring of fire. ♫♫
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2019, 02:42:35 PM
First time I have seen a PDS Watch issued in less than a MDT risk since 01/07/2008 in the Ozarks.     

After an underperforming High-Risk day that is a very gutsy call by the Storm Prediction Center.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 22, 2019, 02:56:41 PM
wow how the weather is so unpredictable.....now today looks like more of a supercell threat than Monday when Monday looked like a devastating situation prior to the event...Today there is less cloud cover no rain shield to break through....will be interesting to watch

If that cell near Lawton begins to rotate it will be on direct path for OKC metro
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 22, 2019, 03:29:57 PM
wow how the weather is so unpredictable.....now today looks like more of a supercell threat than Monday when Monday looked like a devastating situation prior to the event...Today there is less cloud cover no rain shield to break through....will be interesting to watch

If that cell near Lawton begins to rotate it will be on direct path for OKC metro

It's already gusting out. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2019, 03:33:33 PM
The watch that is actually in the Moderate Risk area is also a PDS. 

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 03:38:52 PM
The Geronimo, OK appears to be rotating.  It might have a life after all.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 22, 2019, 03:44:14 PM
The watch that is actually in the Moderate Risk area is also a PDS. 

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 03:38:52 PM
The Geronimo, OK appears to be rotating.  It might have a life after all.   

Yeah.  Chalk one up for the storm.  I'll shut up now.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2019, 03:58:15 PM
It appears the best wind shear is east of I-35.  In order for said storm to have a better tornado threat, it will need to make it to I-35.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 22, 2019, 04:00:18 PM
Dammit I have work I need to do, stop mother nature.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 22, 2019, 04:03:43 PM
Two cells E of Ok City already starting to wrap up into mini kidney beans.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 22, 2019, 04:06:43 PM
Tulsa and OKC metro both have cells headed their way.....stands to be seen if they will rotate

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 04:08:06 PM
Tulsa and OKC metro both have cells headed their way.....stands to be seen if they will rotate

the ones s/w of Tulsa though seem to have a better structure to them
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2019, 04:23:26 PM
The storm near Crescent, OK needs to be watched as well.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 22, 2019, 04:24:29 PM
TOR.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 22, 2019, 04:31:10 PM
Tulsa and OKC metro both have cells headed their way.....stands to be seen if they will rotate

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 04:08:06 PM
the ones s/w of Tulsa though seem to have a better structure to them

and there it is s/w of Tulsa tornado....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2019, 04:51:14 PM
This is another case of two storms are about to collide so what will happen?

Sometimes it grows into a nasty mean supercell.  Sometimes it disrupts both storms and causes them to collapse.   

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 05:21:56 PM
That southern storm south of Tulsa might become a problem. It took out the northern storm and now we need to see if it can produce. Eric got the last laugh as that original storm has dissipated.   

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 05:34:39 PM
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 22, 2019, 07:23:16 PM
Don't look now, but a TOR-warned supe is heading for the Joplin metroplex.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2019, 07:29:17 PM
Likely tornado on the ground moving to or just west of Picher, Oklahoma. A famous abandoned town due to environmental pollution and an EF-4 tornado in 2008.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 22, 2019, 07:31:56 PM
Likely tornado on the ground moving to or just west of Picher, Oklahoma. A famous abandoned town due to environmental pollution and an EF-4 tornado in 2008.

Yep...heading towards Joplin.

TORe in effect just W of Joplin.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2019, 07:41:26 PM
That MO/OK/KS tri-state has been a hotspot for significant tornadoes especially since 2000.

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 07:54:41 PM
Good rotation signatures near Tightwad, MO; Deerfield, MO; and Riverton, KS.  The latter which may threaten Joplin.  It looks like it might pass just north of Joplin but it will be a close call.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 22, 2019, 07:55:25 PM
TORe for Joplin.  NO bueno.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2019, 07:58:29 PM
The rotation has strengthened on the southern end of the storm near Galena which means now a storm track to Joplin.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 22, 2019, 07:59:19 PM
The northern MO radar hole strikes again. Also, like Eric mentioned, confirmed tornado on the KS/MO border heading eastward towards Joplin.

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 08:10:57 PM
Hoping a tornado didnít just hit Glasgow, MO head on. Rotation went right over that town.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2019, 08:14:30 PM
The tornado is on the ground between Carl Junction and Joplin.  Just north of the 2011 tornado that occurred 8 years to the day.   

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 08:23:04 PM
Big ball of blue on the CC = no good.

TOE for Oronogo, MO

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 22, 2019, 08:45:34 PM
https://twitter.com/skydrama/status/1131368834156437504?s=21 (https://twitter.com/skydrama/status/1131368834156437504?s=21)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2019, 09:11:52 PM
That supercell is still going over Golden City, MO.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 22, 2019, 09:23:25 PM
That supercell is still going over Golden City, MO.
Very likely a major tornado with that one.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 22, 2019, 09:25:18 PM
Nasty supercell just NW of Columbia, MO too.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2019, 09:31:37 PM
A concerning storm is also moving towards Jay, OK.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 22, 2019, 09:38:42 PM
Nasty supercell just NW of Columbia, MO too.

Confirmed tornado on this cell now
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2019, 09:40:47 PM
Confirmed tornado north of Greenfield, MO from the supercell that keeps on giving. 

Post Merge: May 22, 2019, 09:45:49 PM
1 fatal in Golden City, MO

Large tornado on the ground in Jay, OK 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 22, 2019, 09:50:38 PM
New tornado on the cell BEHIND the prolific supercell of the evening. Just north of Golden City, MO.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 22, 2019, 10:30:08 PM
Weber Falls is being evacuated because two barges have come loose from Port of Muskogee
And are free riding the heavy current to the dam there at Weber Falls. The barges have already hit one bridge and they expect barges to bust through dam causing catastrophic flooding to Weber Falls and then head to the I40 bridge. The same I40 bridge that collapsed in the early 2000ís and killed numerous motorists due to a barge hitting it. I-40 is also currently closed in that area.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 23, 2019, 06:07:02 AM
I'm seeing reports this morning of potentially "catastrophic" damage from the tornado that went straight through the middle of Jefferson City, MO overnight.  Sadly this has developed into an active severe weather week in spite of the early week miss.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 23, 2019, 06:21:59 AM
Weber Falls is being evacuated because two barges have come loose from Port of Muskogee
And are free riding the heavy current to the dam there at Weber Falls. The barges have already hit one bridge and they expect barges to bust through dam causing catastrophic flooding to Weber Falls and then head to the I40 bridge. The same I40 bridge that collapsed in the early 2000ís and killed numerous motorists due to a barge hitting it. I-40 is also currently closed in that area.

Update on that- the barges were thankfully located and secured upstream from the dam. They were apparently still tied together and had run aground on a rock jetty.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 23, 2019, 06:23:21 AM
I'm seeing reports this morning of potentially "catastrophic" damage from the tornado that went straight through the middle of Jefferson City, MO overnight.  Sadly this has developed into an active severe weather week in spite of the early week miss.

Yes saw that... it apparently hit JC at 11:43 PM last night.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 23, 2019, 07:20:06 AM
(http://i64.tinypic.com/ogji4o.png)

By looking at it superficially, easily an EF3.  Maybe an EF4.  Will certainly have to wait for the survey.  Joplin dodged the bullet, but it nailed Jeff City instead.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NismoWx on May 23, 2019, 08:01:04 AM
I'm watching this one closely. I'm headed to Vincennes, IN. Two frames ago, it looked like it was trying to wrap around the tail. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190523/46247698e8694074f2e28a0e254527db.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: NismoWx on May 23, 2019, 08:06:04 AM
6 minutes apart. Sheeet. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190523/32dde4d1fc1b3a5af9573623d5e0d3e8.jpg)



 Edit: now it's warned.
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk


Yes, I have my warning layer on. It just isn't warned. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190523/ae56d69d0fd4d4efc63f015a7c1a9ede.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 23, 2019, 10:55:48 AM
Thanks to the era of social media mayhem, this is happening:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/its-a-ticking-time-bomb-meteorologist-claims-storm-chasers-are-becoming-mobs-who-block-roads-create-traffic-jams-and-drive-on-the-wrong-side-of-highways-in-a-desperate-quest-to-capture-viral-content/ar-AABKSNc?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/its-a-ticking-time-bomb-meteorologist-claims-storm-chasers-are-becoming-mobs-who-block-roads-create-traffic-jams-and-drive-on-the-wrong-side-of-highways-in-a-desperate-quest-to-capture-viral-content/ar-AABKSNc?ocid=ientp)

I first saw evidence of this with the EL Reno tornado on YouTube.  The sad thing is, most aren't doing this for science, but for the thrill and the number of likes on Facebook.  You never saw this sort of thing before the era of social media, and the term "going viral."
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 23, 2019, 11:20:18 AM
Thanks to the era of social media mayhem, this is happening:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/its-a-ticking-time-bomb-meteorologist-claims-storm-chasers-are-becoming-mobs-who-block-roads-create-traffic-jams-and-drive-on-the-wrong-side-of-highways-in-a-desperate-quest-to-capture-viral-content/ar-AABKSNc?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/its-a-ticking-time-bomb-meteorologist-claims-storm-chasers-are-becoming-mobs-who-block-roads-create-traffic-jams-and-drive-on-the-wrong-side-of-highways-in-a-desperate-quest-to-capture-viral-content/ar-AABKSNc?ocid=ientp)

I first saw evidence of this with the EL Reno tornado on YouTube.  The sad thing is, most aren't doing this for science, but for the thrill and the number of likes on Facebook.  You never saw this sort of thing before the era of social media, and the term "going viral."

I see it like this: We live in a free country and the chasers have every right to be out as anyone else. However, my support for them stops when they are blatantly breaking traffic laws, interfering with EM, and using any type of strobe on their vehicle trying to look pseudo official. I also think the storm chase community should do a whole lot more to organize car pooling just to try and attempt to have less cars on the road.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 23, 2019, 11:21:01 AM
Thanks to the era of social media mayhem, this is happening:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/its-a-ticking-time-bomb-meteorologist-claims-storm-chasers-are-becoming-mobs-who-block-roads-create-traffic-jams-and-drive-on-the-wrong-side-of-highways-in-a-desperate-quest-to-capture-viral-content/ar-AABKSNc?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/its-a-ticking-time-bomb-meteorologist-claims-storm-chasers-are-becoming-mobs-who-block-roads-create-traffic-jams-and-drive-on-the-wrong-side-of-highways-in-a-desperate-quest-to-capture-viral-content/ar-AABKSNc?ocid=ientp)

I first saw evidence of this with the EL Reno tornado on YouTube.  The sad thing is, most aren't doing this for science, but for the thrill and the number of likes on Facebook.  You never saw this sort of thing before the era of social media, and the term "going viral."

No, and very soon, some of these people are going to get hurt and/or killed. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 23, 2019, 01:04:04 PM
I see it like this: We live in a free country and the chasers have every right to be out as anyone else. However, my support for them stops when they are blatantly breaking traffic laws, interfering with EM, and using any type of strobe on their vehicle trying to look pseudo official. I also think the storm chase community should do a whole lot more to organize car pooling just to try and attempt to have less cars on the road.

I agree to a point.  If they want to risk their own life, that's one thing.  There are more than "free" to run up to the nearest tornado and wave hello.  However, when they are putting others at risk for a selfish need to catch the best video shots, I have a problem with it. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 23, 2019, 01:45:21 PM
I agree to a point.  If they want to risk their own life, that's one thing.  There are more than "free" to run up to the nearest tornado and wave hello.  However, when they are putting others at risk for a selfish need to catch the best video shots, I have a problem with it.

You can chase storms and still follow the traffic laws, allow EM through, and just generally be respectful to the situation.  If a town has been hit by a tornado avoid driving through it to get to your next storm.  Pull off the road for sirens.  Pay attention to more than just your camera.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mempho on May 23, 2019, 02:07:42 PM
I agree to a point.  If they want to risk their own life, that's one thing.  There are more than "free" to run up to the nearest tornado and wave hello.  However, when they are putting others at risk for a selfish need to catch the best video shots, I have a problem with it.
We do have laws against endangering others. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 23, 2019, 02:23:56 PM
You can chase storms and still follow the traffic laws, allow EM through, and just generally be respectful to the situation.  If a town has been hit by a tornado avoid driving through it to get to your next storm.  Pull off the road for sirens.  Pay attention to more than just your camera.

That's the problem, perhaps.  They are too caught up in the adrenaline of the chase, or getting that perfect shot to think straight.  They have "tunnel vision."   

Maybe I'm just too old to understand the fascination with social media and pouring so much time and energy into it, and it's not just tornadoes.  People fall off cliffs attempting to get that perfect pic or video to rack up the "likes", go viral, and win the popularity contest.  Maybe that's what it boils down to--the same contest that begins in high school never really ends. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 23, 2019, 04:26:42 PM
Prelim survey of Jeff City TOR is EF3.  Survey still ongoing...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 23, 2019, 05:59:03 PM
Snowbird, UT still has 116 inches of snow on the ground heading into Memorial Day Weekend.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on May 24, 2019, 08:42:09 AM
Snowbird, UT still has 116 inches of snow on the ground heading into Memorial Day Weekend.

Alta and snowbird look to extend their season past July 4th- latest on record I think.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: ryandourius on May 25, 2019, 04:11:52 PM
I find it absolutely astonishing that the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma have been under nonstop tornado watches for over the last week. Those people cannot catch a break. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: MSR041933 on May 25, 2019, 04:46:37 PM
And D4 has a 30% that looks to b a doozy👀👀
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 25, 2019, 05:10:21 PM
I find it absolutely astonishing that the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma have been under nonstop tornado watches for over the last week. Those people cannot catch a break.
that's why they call it tornado alley...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: MSR041933 on May 26, 2019, 12:23:26 AM
El Reno just took a direct hit and the reports do not look good. Buildings completely destroyed and 2by4s look to be impaled into the ground...saw a report of 34 missing and also UNCONFIRMED reports of 9 fatalities at a hotel/motel that took a direct hit..not good..incredible debris ball associated with that storm appears to line up with type of damage reports coming in..looks to be EF3 type damage

Post Merge: May 26, 2019, 12:34:05 AM
[attachimg=1]
 From twitter of Tyler Stanfield

Post Merge: May 26, 2019, 12:36:04 AM
El Reno just took a direct hit and the reports do not look good. Buildings completely destroyed and 2by4s look to be impaled into the ground...saw a report of 34 missing and also UNCONFIRMED reports of 9 fatalities at a hotel/motel that took a direct hit..not good..incredible debris ball associated with that storm appears to line up with type of damage reports coming in..looks to be EF3 type damage

Post Merge: May 26, 2019, 12:34:05 AM
(Attachment Link)
 From twitter of Tyler Stanfield


Post Merge: May 26, 2019, 12:40:45 AM
Also looks to be ANOTHER TOR on ground..appears it could track through to the south side of Tulsa..100MPH+ velocity scans and debris ball..same QLCS spin up from El Reno storm.

[attachment deleted by admin]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 26, 2019, 09:49:30 AM
El Reno, OK and tornadoes seem to go together like peanut butter and jelly.  This is the 3rd such deadly tornado occurrence in the El-Reno area this decade (2011, 2013, and now this one).   

Post Merge: May 26, 2019, 09:58:49 AM
Today may be a doozy in far E Colorado/Western KS and down into the panhandles of OK and TX.  A Moderate Risk including very large hail and tornadoes strikes again.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Charles L. on May 27, 2019, 08:10:33 PM
Another west TN earthquake. 2.9 near Ridgely.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 27, 2019, 09:31:41 PM
Tornado headed for the Dayton, OH metro area currently. This cell doesn't show signs of weakening. If it holds together it could make it all the way to Columbus.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 27, 2019, 09:37:32 PM
Nationwide 2019, is so far our most active year for tornadoes since 2011. We would have to have record low (at or worse than 2012) tornado activity from June to December for 2019 not to finish at least average.  With that being said nationwide we are not anywhere close to the number of tornadoes that 2008 and 2011 saw. 

It may be hard to believe that locally since Tennessee and even most of Kentucky and Northern Alabama have been practical dead zones for tornadoes so far this year. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png

Post Merge: May 27, 2019, 09:39:35 PM
Tornado headed for the Dayton, OH metro area currently. This cell doesn't show signs of weakening. If it holds together it could make it all the way to Columbus.

Pretty significant debris signature on the northern storm using CC. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 27, 2019, 09:48:31 PM
The center of circulation looks like it's about to go directly through where my best friend's parents live. They are just south of Englewood on the other side of 70. I'm a bit worried.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 27, 2019, 09:49:08 PM
[attachimg=1]

Post Merge: May 27, 2019, 09:51:11 PM
That rotation just got a lot brighter.  We have now a tornado on the ground.  It is also moving ESE putting Dayton proper and especially the northside of Dayton in danger. 

Post Merge: May 27, 2019, 09:53:57 PM
[attachimg=1]

Looks like a debris signature.

Post Merge: May 27, 2019, 09:59:36 PM
Quote
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
       
At 1056 PM EDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
over Trotwood, moving east at 35 mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY. This is
a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. Radar shows tornado debris in the
         air.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Tornado impact is imminent for Trotwood and North Dayton, Ohio. 

Post Merge: May 27, 2019, 10:00:55 PM
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 27, 2019, 10:03:32 PM
Oh god it's moving southeast toward the heart of Dayton.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 27, 2019, 10:07:32 PM
Dayton (especially the north side needs a miracle).  If it continues to hold a town that knows all about tornadoes will be next (Xenia, Ohio). 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 27, 2019, 10:14:44 PM
Dayton (especially the north side needs a miracle).  If it continues to hold a town that knows all about tornadoes will be next (Xenia, Ohio).

As of now it's headed straight towards there.

Post Merge: May 27, 2019, 10:18:13 PM
There's now another hook echo forming with another cell that is about to take the same exact path  ::wow::
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 27, 2019, 10:23:40 PM
The one to the NW is starting to get its act together and so is the one near Marysville, OH to the Northeast. 

Post Merge: May 27, 2019, 10:27:32 PM
Nasty rotation may pass just to the north of Xenia but if it takes another ESE turn it will be very close. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: MSR041933 on May 27, 2019, 10:29:41 PM
Big Big Problems for trotwood ..search and rescue crews blocked by trees sounds like there multiple reports of people trapped
Montgomery county fire and rescue feed just went down
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 27, 2019, 10:36:43 PM
Another big problem is there is storm just east of Englewood (just northeast of the first tracker) that looks like it may be or perhaps is producing another tornado.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 27, 2019, 10:40:28 PM
Another big problem is there is storm just east of Englewood (just northeast of the first tracker) that looks like it may be or perhaps is producing another tornado.

Confirmed on ground in Vandalia.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 27, 2019, 10:40:45 PM
Tornado on the ground with the 2nd storm moving towards Shiloah and NE Dayton which appeared to both be devastated by the first tornado.   

Post Merge: May 27, 2019, 10:46:41 PM
Looks like NE Dayton and Riverside will be experiencing its 2nd tornado of the night. 

Post Merge: May 27, 2019, 11:31:21 PM
[attachimg=1]

Based on traffic and radar you can see a generalized zone of at least the most intense damage which by preliminary reports is likely at EF-3 or greater. 

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 28, 2019, 06:39:31 AM
No word yet from friendís parents...just found out they live in Trotwood. Iím trying hard not to fear the worst right now.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: chelseaintn on May 28, 2019, 06:48:26 AM
I have been talking to friend in the Dayton area. They are all in the Beavercreek/Fairborn area. Widespread damage. One friend said that the neighborhood where I used to live was hit bad. Miraculously so far no deaths reported. One tornado hit very close to the Airforce museum. Some base housing was destroyed. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 28, 2019, 08:18:21 AM
The greater Kansas City area looks to be under the gun today... meanwhile we canít get a drop of rain here all sudden... the grounds top soil is really starting to dry out fast ....
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 28, 2019, 08:28:47 AM
Sadly, there was at least 1 fatality in Celina, OH (northwest part of the state).  The Dayton Proper area thankfully has not recorded any deaths and only 3 injuries at this time.  If that stays that way it will be a victory for the National Weather Service and the local EMS crews.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: snowdog on May 28, 2019, 08:49:06 AM
The greater Kansas City area looks to be under the gun today... meanwhile we canít get a drop of rain here all sudden... the grounds top soil is really starting to dry out fast ....

That nasty deathridge southeast of us starts to breakdown late this week into the weekend. Everyone will be fighting for those pop-up storms as we get into a better pattern for them.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 28, 2019, 08:55:12 AM
....and the Midwest buys another MDT risk.  Jesus.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1559051696013)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 28, 2019, 12:22:34 PM
The saving grace today is that things are bit more unidirectional meaning that the significant tornado window is shorter before things go MCS.  Still, watch near the warm front from Central KS over to Kansas City Metro.

After tomorrow, ridging appears in the Central USA and things will start to calm down quite a bit and things turn more summertime.     

Post Merge: May 28, 2019, 06:24:35 PM
The Lawrence, KS area has decided to play the latest round of the late afternoon/evening destructive tornado sweepstakes.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 28, 2019, 06:35:55 PM
Looks really bad. Tornado emergency.


[attachimg=1]




[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 28, 2019, 06:43:54 PM
Looks really bad. Tornado emergency.


(Attachment Link)

the warning states "large destructive" headed right for kc metro area....could be a horrible scene if it holds together :(. That is some hook echo and debris cloud...very tight couplet
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 28, 2019, 06:44:40 PM
Tornado Emergency for Kansas City, KS.  If this storm doesn't forward propagate and transition to a MCS very quickly then things will likely get very ugly.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 28, 2019, 06:51:29 PM
watching it on fox 4 Kansas city....the inflow of clouds are unreal

Post Merge: May 28, 2019, 06:56:08 PM
my God its classicly perfect supercell
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 28, 2019, 07:00:06 PM
https://livestormchasing.com/map

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 28, 2019, 07:03:40 PM
https://www.kmbc.com/nowcast
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 28, 2019, 07:20:34 PM
The storm is starting to take on a bowed out shape.  The conversion from supercell with significant tornadoes to a MCS with 70+ MPH wind gusts looks to have begun.  Still remember that MCS's can produce tornadoes and even an isolated strong one (e.g. El Reno, OK a few days ago). 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: ryandourius on May 28, 2019, 08:17:11 PM
My friend Rick Hendrix posted this. His son barely missed the path of the tornado in Kansas City today.


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: gcbama on May 28, 2019, 08:26:53 PM
STRANGE severe season when my home state of New Jersey has seen more supercells today than we have seen all year in Tennessee
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 28, 2019, 08:35:08 PM
All tornadoes that hit around the Dayton area last night are all preliminary EF-3's.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 28, 2019, 09:21:52 PM
Most of the tornado damage I saw in the Dayton area reminded me of the Jefferson City, MO damage but just more of it.  A high-end EF-3 appears to be a good call unless there is something construction wise that warrants an upgrade to EF-4.

Some of the damage today in Eastern KS may warrant something higher than EF-3 but the surveyors have to see what type of construction was done in order for that to occur.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 29, 2019, 06:25:57 AM
Wow. We do have weather after all... severe storm watch parts west tenn till noon...  line just near batesville Arkansas  trying bow out some. Moving east ...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 29, 2019, 07:06:44 AM
Today is the last day of the sequence. On Friday we don't have any severe threats highlighted for anywhere. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Eric on May 29, 2019, 08:00:43 AM
Getting the party started early, apparently...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7vBpsdU8AI6-Qf.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 29, 2019, 09:47:26 AM
Saw where Reed Timmer successfully launched a rocket into the tornado in Kansas. The tornado took the sensor to over 30000 feet.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 29, 2019, 03:00:00 PM
That storm on the Logan/Butler (KY) line looks pretty mean especially from a hail prespective.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 29, 2019, 05:10:39 PM
Broad rotation on the storm riding the Arkansas/ Missouri line. Currently severe warned.

Post Merge: May 29, 2019, 05:19:34 PM
Tornado in the Canton Texas area has been on the ground for a while.

Post Merge: May 29, 2019, 05:26:12 PM
Ark/ Mo storm now tornado warned.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 30, 2019, 07:53:17 AM
The KY side of things has gotten quite a bit of rain in the past 24 hours.  With a few locations receiving up to 4 inches of rain.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 30, 2019, 08:57:10 AM
 ::fingerscrossed:: that we get some of that action over the next few days.  Top soil pretty parched here now. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 30, 2019, 02:07:14 PM
Precipitable Water values of 1.5 inches of more cover the entire state starting next week.

Meaning better rain chances and that those rains could be heavy.  Unfortunately areas like Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois, and parts of Western Kentucky that don't need it will be getting more and more of it.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 30, 2019, 05:43:39 PM
Unfortunately areas like Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois, and parts of Western Kentucky that don't need it will be getting more and more of it.

The images and video coming out of there are heartbreaking.  Large tracts of land along the Arkansas river look like inland seas.  Many of flooded areas aren't even considered to be in a flood plain.  That's bad, since most people don't have flood insurance.   
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 31, 2019, 04:45:28 AM
I am at the time of year I don't really dig into models everyday cause the weather just becomes to stagnant boring... but spc 4 to 8 days cast says by day 6 wed... severe potential from Ozarks to mid south...
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 31, 2019, 05:16:36 AM
Thankful that I squeezed out .31" of rain during a brief downpour overnight that produced 3 claps of thunder. Nothing beats dozing in and out of sleep listening to rain on the roof. 
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 31, 2019, 08:07:56 PM
There is a large day 3 enhanced area. Parts of Kansas, Missouri and Illinois.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Curt on June 01, 2019, 12:57:08 PM
https://youtu.be/LqYCe_LT1jI


Fall severe...in Chile yesterday
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on June 02, 2019, 06:06:49 AM
Could be an active day over much of the area (mainly east per HRRR):

Quote
Main forecast concern is expected scattered storm development
this afternoon through early evening. A frontal boundary will
approach the Tennessee valley late this afternoon and evening. Air
mass ahead of the front will become moderately unstable with
MLCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/Kg. DCAPEs of 700- 900 J/Kg, mid-level dry
air with Theta-E difference of 25-30 will produce strong and gusty
winds with storms, possiblly damaging winds. Decent lapse rates
producing Hail CAPEs of 400-600 J/Kg and favorable WBZ of
9500-10,000ft could produce 1/2 to 1 inch size hail with the
stronger storms. Will highlight the marginal risk of severe storms
in the HWO.

Good day to fire up the grill and watch the sky for giant cauliflower to go with my steak.

(http://eo.ucar.edu/webweather/images/498.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Greyhound on June 02, 2019, 08:22:45 AM
Could be an active day over much of the area (mainly east per HRRR):

Good day to fire up the grill and watch the sky for giant cauliflower to go with my steak.

(http://eo.ucar.edu/webweather/images/498.gif)
Hmmm......I'm not really seeing much on the HRRR.  Thinking about floating the yaks down a river today, and definitely don't want to be caught in a storm. Had that happen last year, and never want a repeat!!

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: JayCee on June 02, 2019, 09:11:24 AM
Hmmm......I'm not really seeing much on the HRRR. 
Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk

It does look pretty anemic as far as coverage is concerned.  MRX is going with 30-50% pops over the east TN valley, which may be optimistic.  Dewpoints have recovered into the middle 60's over the central valley, so moisture is available.  I guess we'll see what "pops" later today.   

Post Merge: June 02, 2019, 03:25:33 PM
Looks like MRX should've followed the short range models output and put pops at 20 or less, because that's the coverage so far today.

Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 03, 2019, 05:58:19 AM
I kinda want to put this in the Summer thread since itís meteorological summer now, but Iíll put it here since itís severe related.

From the OHX AFD. At least weíll get a break from the hot dry weather if nothing else:

Quote
Its not too early to discuss severe weather potential for the
weekend. For Saturday the GFS has -8C for LIs and negative
Showalter. Cape is in the 2000+J/kg range. Any helicity is west
of the area and low shear for us. Parameters look a bit stronger
on Sunday. The Euro which remember takes the low further south and
more over us doesn/t have as strong of parameters for Middle
Tennessee.

This will be worth watching the next couple of days. At this time
will not mention anything in the HWO as SPC and WPC does not have
any highlights for Middle Tennessee.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: bugalou on June 03, 2019, 06:11:08 PM
I kinda want to put this in the Summer thread since itís meteorological summer now, but Iíll put it here since itís severe related.

From the OHX AFD. At least weíll get a break from the hot dry weather if nothing else:

If its severe and synopticly driven this is the right place IMO.  I miss thunder and lightning already, so I am looking forward to it.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 05, 2019, 06:31:51 AM
Upper East TN is included in a slight risk today.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on June 05, 2019, 06:40:41 AM
Just a little thunder and a quick burst of rain and we've lost power in West Knoxville.  It popped on and off several times very quickly and now is really out.  It's acting like there's a real issue that may keep us in the dark for a while today.
Title: Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
Post by: joemomma on June 05, 2019, 02:59:25 PM
We had a few rumbles of thunder this morning, but nothing intense.  Right now, you can cut it with a knife outside and the sky is looking pretty angry.  I'd say it's going to start popping off within the next few minutes.  I'm inside concrete walls so I can't hear anything, but it looks angry for sure.