Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => TNWx Vault of Fame and Infamy => Topic started by: Dyersburg Weather on January 19, 2016, 12:24:22 PM

Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 19, 2016, 12:24:22 PM
Let the party begin. All models are in agreement for a potential nice storm for most of Tennessee. Maybe since I started the thread I will get left out and the I40 corridor will cash in.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 19, 2016, 12:29:23 PM
If anyone EVER needed a 50-mile jog south it'd be this board.  Every member in Mid TN would get walloped.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 19, 2016, 12:30:06 PM
Let's bring this one home! Hoping all score here. Go Dyer Go! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cgauxknox on January 19, 2016, 12:30:43 PM
So how are the models reading for Knoxville?  What I've seen posted most often looks like we're too warm and the Friday storm will be all rain with us in the mid-40s.  But I'm also hearing rumblings about the temperature staying down and all that moisture coming down as snow onto cold ground.  I know things will come together better as we get closer but there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus yet.

Also, my wife is supposed to have 2 friends coming to Knoxville on Friday night, one from Nashville and another from Lynchburg, VA.  Am I right that travel out of both those places is looking doubtful?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 19, 2016, 12:32:35 PM

Also, my wife is supposed to have 2 friends coming to Knoxville on Friday night, one from Nashville and another from Lynchburg, VA.  Am I right that travel out of both those places is looking doubtful?
The one coming from Nashville might want to rethink it. The one coming from Lynchburg, VA might want to just forget about it.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 19, 2016, 12:34:43 PM
So how are the models reading for Knoxville?  What I've seen posted most often looks like we're too warm and the Friday storm will be all rain with us in the mid-40s.  But I'm also hearing rumblings about the temperature staying down and all that moisture coming down as snow onto cold ground.  I know things will come together better as we get closer but there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus yet.

Also, my wife is supposed to have 2 friends coming to Knoxville on Friday night, one from Nashville and another from Lynchburg, VA.  Am I right that travel out of both those places is looking doubtful?

Until Knoxville/East TN gets on the cold side of the low pressure system, all you'll see is rain with some minor accums.  The deformation band just happens to set up over N TN/S KY.  Travel both ways looks highly doubtful, yes.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cgauxknox on January 19, 2016, 12:35:25 PM
The one coming from Nashville might want to rethink it. The one coming from Lynchburg, VA might want to just forget about it.

Thanks Coach.  I figured the trip down 81 was going to be bad if not impossible.  The one coming from Nashville I'm afraid would, at best, have OK road conditions on either side but then run into really bad weather over the plateau.  She's lived the past several years in the South Pacific after growing up in Nashville so driving in snow is definitely not her strongest skill set.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 19, 2016, 12:43:05 PM
The euro verbatim had some weird precip hole around memohis lolz. Take with a grain of salt. No reason to think that would happen ESP given the GFS. Both make the phase very close to eastern Arkansas . GFS was 3-6 in Memphis metro, euro 1-2 with more in every direction lol. Too early for specifics. Euro is playing catch up
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 19, 2016, 12:53:44 PM
The euro verbatim had some weird precip hole around memohis lolz. Take with a grain of salt. No reason to think that would happen ESP given the GFS. Both make the phase very close to eastern Arkansas . GFS was 3-6 in Memphis metro, euro 1-2 with more in every direction lol. Too early for specifics. Euro is playing catch up

Here's the reasoning for that for those wondering...especially if you're looking at the snow maps verbatim. At the time the deformation axis is taking shape...it's traveling through the MEM metro and vicinity in that 66 to 72 hour time period. If you look at QPF...there's a healthy (if narrow) swath of liquid precip along and just south of the I-40 corridor. However...at hour 66 temperatures are still above freezing (34 at MEM to be specific) though by 72 it's well below. The result is Euro's clown map refuses to call that area of precip snow...even though with crashing surface temperatures and 850s in the 6 hours that follow...and the very nature of deformation axes...that precip would almost certainly be snow. If you look at Eurowx's snow map...it handles that precipitation axis more efficiently.

Granted...the strength and closing of the 500 mb low really benefits areas further N/E as it continues to organize...but Memphis is getting a decent snow if you read between the lines of the Euro. It's similar to the GFS to where things are just getting going though as it moves through this region so the corridor of snowfall is much more narrow with a sharper gradient defined. If a phase could occur even 6 hours earlier...the implications would be pretty great.

At this moment I'm cautiously optimistic in *some* snow potential for the metro with this event but there are a lot of uncertainties. Just as a slightly earlier phase could be really beneficial...just as likely at this stage is a later phase or different track that moves everybody's excitement today back to a place of sadness...lol.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: joemomma on January 19, 2016, 01:21:28 PM
How's this one looking for the plateau now?  Seems like I read somewhere that eastern TN wasn't going to do well?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on January 19, 2016, 01:36:27 PM
How's this one looking for the plateau now?  Seems like I read somewhere that eastern TN wasn't going to do well?
Northern plateau should do well. I don't think anyone in the valley needs to get excited about this right now. The low is not even close to being ideal for us. Could be a good one for far western TN though.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Crockett on January 19, 2016, 01:38:19 PM
How's this one looking for the plateau now?  Seems like I read somewhere that eastern TN wasn't going to do well?

Per 0z/6z/12z GFS, tomorrow will likely be the bigger snow-producer of the two for the northern plateau. Still rooting for a bit of a southeastern trend for Friday's system. :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: joemomma on January 19, 2016, 01:57:58 PM
Right on.  I'm technically towards the base of the plateau itself, just north of the Cookeville city limits but we tend to be more similar to plateau weather-wise than other areas west.
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 19, 2016, 02:05:13 PM
Here's the reasoning for that for those wondering...especially if you're looking at the snow maps verbatim. At the time the deformation axis is taking shape...it's traveling through the MEM metro and vicinity in that 66 to 72 hour time period. If you look at QPF...there's a healthy (if narrow) swath of liquid precip along and just south of the I-40 corridor. However...at hour 66 temperatures are still above freezing (34 at MEM to be specific) though by 72 it's well below. The result is Euro's clown map refuses to call that area of precip snow...even though with crashing surface temperatures and 850s in the 6 hours that follow...and the very nature of deformation axes...that precip would almost certainly be snow. If you look at Eurowx's snow map...it handles that precipitation axis more efficiently.

Granted...the strength and closing of the 500 mb low really benefits areas further N/E as it continues to organize...but Memphis is getting a decent snow if you read between the lines of the Euro. It's similar to the GFS to where things are just getting going though as it moves through this region so the corridor of snowfall is much more narrow with a sharper gradient defined. If a phase could occur even 6 hours earlier...the implications would be pretty great.

At this moment I'm cautiously optimistic in *some* snow potential for the metro with this event but there are a lot of uncertainties. Just as a slightly earlier phase could be really beneficial...just as likely at this stage is a later phase or different track that moves everybody's excitement today back to a place of sadness...lol.
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160119/afe3a741d16442663e69059e4ab48dc1.jpg)

Here's the Eurowx snow map. That's 3-5, maybe pushing 6 in the metro. Good googly moogly at Clarksville over the next 5 days!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 19, 2016, 02:09:37 PM
https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpl1/v/t34.0-12/fr/cp0/e15/q65/12570912_10205724944707326_269580562_n.jpg?efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&oh=c154bc356888ea0db3a908cb65cb9a4c&oe=56A138C0
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 19, 2016, 02:18:19 PM

https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpl1/v/t34.0-12/fr/cp0/e15/q65/12570912_10205724944707326_269580562_n.jpg?efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&oh=c154bc356888ea0db3a908cb65cb9a4c&oe=56A138C0

Maybe better for arkansaswx.com? Don't think the RGM goes out too far in the intermediate
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 19, 2016, 02:26:49 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160119/afe3a741d16442663e69059e4ab48dc1.jpg)

Here's the Eurowx snow map. That's 3-5, maybe pushing 6 in the metro. Good googly moogly at Clarksville over the next 5 days!
FWIW,  Say it phases 100 miles to the southwest.   

Then,  perhaps it's less likely to transfer to the coast?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 19, 2016, 02:33:02 PM
The Snowman concurs, Good Goodly Moogly! LOL!!! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: milodog1 on January 19, 2016, 02:33:20 PM
MRX has stepped up their wording for Friday night/Saturday. They think an area of deformation may set up over the valley.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 19, 2016, 02:59:45 PM
https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t35.0-12/fr/cp0/e15/q65/12596796_1132564060102186_1995742686_o.jpg?efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&oh=d1176a3b3fe09164a21b3c06719b7fb3&oe=56A14282. Unfortunately its the 18znam
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 19, 2016, 03:05:46 PM

https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t35.0-12/fr/cp0/e15/q65/12596796_1132564060102186_1995742686_o.jpg?efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&oh=d1176a3b3fe09164a21b3c06719b7fb3&oe=56A14282. Unfortunately its the 18znam

Nashville snow dome holds = you can book this one. 100% accurate. (http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160119/71b7d207ef3542a64c20d04d3d5bb76c.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 19, 2016, 03:19:44 PM
 I hope the Euro pans out after what I've seen on weather bell maps on accumulations' amount for Nashville area.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 19, 2016, 03:53:06 PM
From MEG re: Friday:

Quote
Discussion: A strong upper level trof will drop toward the southern plains late Wednesday night while low pressure begins to organize over the southern plains. Some light overrunning is possible late Wednesday night. Could be some light freezing rain across the north but confidence is quite low. Thursday through Friday, next storm system will quickly pivot into the area on Thursday. 12Z models are all in surprisingly good agreement with upper trof becoming negatively titled and closing off over the mid south. Meanwhile a rapidly developing surface low will move from south of the arklatex into southern middle Tennessee thu night. Expect rain to overspread the region Thursday and then we will see a changeover to snow Thursday night into Friday morning from nw to se as cold air wraps around the surface low. Of course whether any significant snow falls will depend on the track of the system. Right now the track of the upper low looks favorable for a band of heavy snow somewhere in the midsouth depending on where the deformation band sets up. All the 12Z models show a band somewhere across the area, the NAM is a little further north/west from eastern ar into nw tn, the GFS/ECMWF are hinting along the i-40 corridor. Way too early to pin down locations and amounts but confidence is increasing that parts of the midsouth could see significant winter weather thu night into Friday. Saturday, looks very chilly in the wake of the departing storm system with highs only in the 30s. Sunday through Tuesday, warming trend as another low pressure system tracks into the area with next chance for rain, could see a mix across the north as the system departs. Cooler for Tuesday as the system pulls away. Sjm

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 19, 2016, 03:59:48 PM
18z GFS

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_11.png)
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_12.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Michael on January 19, 2016, 04:02:19 PM
Looks to shifted south on 12z Euro vs last night's 00z Euro. Did GFS trend south and east?


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Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 19, 2016, 04:12:00 PM
What would be the ideal track of the low be to achieve maximum accumulation in a swath from Memphis to Nashville? I'm assuming Greenville MS to Greenville SC would be about perfect?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 19, 2016, 04:14:00 PM
What would be the ideal track of the low bto achieve maximum accumulation in a swath from
Memphis to Nashville? I'm assuming Greenville MS to Rome GA would be about perfect?


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Yes. If this low ends up moving south of TN, that would set us up for an excellent event Friday.
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 19, 2016, 10:02:45 PM
Welcome your foot of snow little rock and Jonesboro . Welcome your 1-2 inches Memphis. Per 0z GFS

Can we say Christmas blizzard redux 2012?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 19, 2016, 10:06:03 PM
00z GFS

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_10.png)
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_11.png)
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_12.png)
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_13.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 19, 2016, 10:33:56 PM
Seriously run has a few similarities and some differences for sure. The LP in December 2012 went well northeast than into east TN before the transfer.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 20, 2016, 12:13:43 AM
For those of you wondering about the 0z Euro...
(http://canitbesaturdaynow.com/images/fpics/3388/66b752520b526bfafa637a8d1fe0f1e8.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 20, 2016, 12:25:49 AM
0z Euro major hit for all but the MS River counties in TN. Thing really gets wound up as the low moves into AL and GA.

Euro text output:

1.4" for Memphis
9.7" for Jackson
6.9" for Nashville
1.6" for Chattanooga
3.8" for Knoxville
12.4" for Bristol
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 12:33:59 AM
0z Euro major hit for all but the MS River counties in TN. Thing really gets wound up as the low moves into AL and GA.

Euro text output:

1.4" for Memphis
9.7" for Jackson
6.9" for Nashville
1.6" for Chattanooga
3.8" for Knoxville
12.4" for Bristol

Smokin' something ? Memphis is easily 3-6
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 12:40:23 AM
Did my eyes play tricks on me or did the euro throw out 10-11 inches for ckv area? ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::WOW one can dream!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 20, 2016, 02:12:08 AM
Smokin' something ? Memphis is easily 3-6

Upon closer inspection, there may be an error with the text output - or some kind of dynamics beyond my understanding in play. .53 of QPF but insanely low ratios of 2:1 - 4:1.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 02:35:42 AM
New NAM run is absolutely hammering west TN with a deformation band by 9 AM Friday.

[attachimg=1]

 ::wow:: this run of the NAM is fantastic for middle TN too.

[attachimg=2] [attachimg=3]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 02:41:43 AM
HUGE shift SE with the snow band on this run.

0z Run...[attachimg=1]

6z Run...[attachimg=2]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 04:58:21 AM
LMK has issued a Winter Storm Watch for this threat. Saying 2-4" right now for South Central KY.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Michael on January 20, 2016, 05:15:10 AM
06z Hi-Res NAM. Congrats west tn!
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/2390ff17c1c8965882427fc975beb921.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on January 20, 2016, 05:25:53 AM
06z NAM is very Euroish. GFS still holding the heaviest snow back to the NW by about 100 miles. Got to think with the NAM making the switch, the GFS is probably playing catch-up as usual. But with two days out, still time for things to change.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 06:47:27 AM
Some pretty strong wording from MEG AFD:
Quote
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION AS A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND
SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN SOUTHEAST TX/LA. THE OBSERVED
TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT A
STRONGER...DEEPER AND MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS PREFERRED
. THIS
WOULD GENERALLY TAKE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN CENTRAL MS AND SOUTHWEST TN. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW
IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TYPES AND POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME-RANGE WILL NOT
BE DISCUSSED. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT DO SUGGEST A HIGH-
IMPACT EVENT...HOWEVER...AND THEY ARE DISCUSSED BELOW:

WHILE HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT
APPEARS THAT THE UPPER BOUND IN TERMS OF IMPACTS IS QUITE HIGH.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG FLOW NEAR
925 MB IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE WIND GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 40 MPH COINCIDENT WITH A TEXTBOOK BANDED HEAVY
SNOWFALL EVENT
. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE BUT THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS GIVEN THAT ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING...BUT DIFFER IN PLACEMENT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER
STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on January 20, 2016, 06:48:56 AM
Worth mentioning for the curious that all of the snow in the east tn valley in that nam clown falls today. It has no snow from the weekend system except in NE TN. Too much WAA on this side of the state.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 07:19:37 AM
Some pretty strong wording from MEG AFD:
While MEG did not use the "b"  word,  they certainly indicated that it was a possibility. 

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on January 20, 2016, 08:50:44 AM
I miss being able to lurk on these boards to get the latest information on the weather.  Chat is fine, but too difficult to try to scan back to read.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 08:55:15 AM
12z 4km NAM snowfall. Of the totals you see, reduce it by 2". The NAM paints 2" for today, so the rest it shows falling is for the Friday system.

[attachimg=1]


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 09:06:28 AM
12z 4km NAM snowfall. Of the totals you see, reduce it by 2". The NAM paints 2" for today, so the rest it shows falling is for the Friday system.

Looks much better for most of mid TN, especially the south. But it lost the huge accums in west TN. ::coffee::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cgauxknox on January 20, 2016, 09:10:00 AM
12z 4km NAM snowfall. Of the totals you see, reduce it by 2". The NAM paints 2" for today, so the rest it shows falling is for the Friday system.

(Attachment Link)

Even taking off the 2" this run gives East TN a solid event.  It looks like the line between a big snow and a couple of inches runs right through Knox county, which could be interesting.  Local forecasts still say lower 40's and rain on Friday, but the temps seem to get lower with every forecast.  I'm going to lose so much more potentially productive time watching this forum the second half of the week.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on January 20, 2016, 09:18:09 AM
anxiously awaiting Paul Heggen's blog, he pretty much nailed today's storm
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 09:19:53 AM
Gut Feeling: There are going to be some incredibly disappointed and bitter people come Friday.... and that's because somebody within close range of them is going to get a potentially once in a generation event.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 20, 2016, 09:20:42 AM
Quote
Thursday Night Rain before midnight, then rain and snow. Low around 31. Blustery, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Friday Snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a north northwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

I'd honestly cash out now w/ these grids. It's greedy to ask for more than 2 inches in these parts. ;)

But it will be hard to not be a little sour if there are +++ accumulations within a few counties.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on January 20, 2016, 09:32:41 AM
Pls post Hegen's blog when he does it.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on January 20, 2016, 09:36:06 AM
GFS says a couple of inches are possible even here Saturday morning. Bring it on, I'll be doing a 12 mile run in the national park rain, snow, or shine. Should be fun.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 09:39:06 AM
Someone in the Meg area is going to have near blizzard conditions- winds consistently show near 40-45 gusts with the heaviest band on Friday.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 20, 2016, 09:41:53 AM
Ok take two inches away gives me 11 inches of snow. That I'll work.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 09:51:54 AM
Closed off low over central ms on latest gfs. Umm
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 09:57:45 AM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/6734510ed5ae1736d24f6217af4b74fc.jpg)
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/46f673536318387c6fd12422ec5fb7ee.jpg)

Winds gusting past 40 mph in the snow areas along the MS River in these frames on the 12z GFS
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:06:18 AM
Starting to get model convergence now within 60 hours. Folks in the mid south need to keep a watchful eye on this.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 20, 2016, 10:09:44 AM
Starting to get model convergence now within 60 hours. Folks in the mid south need to keep a watchful eye on this.

Hubby is working is Chicago right now, and he was asking about how this storm was going to affect us.
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:10:07 AM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/2cc1974bb7a4c7c641842be82af4f18f.jpg)(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/773eaa5799ea739fce4b387872fe7fd2.jpg)

10m wind gusts at the same time frames above
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 10:11:45 AM
12zgfs says throw little thunder snow in to boot in the deform band
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 10:20:09 AM
Just for future reference, here is the Blizzard Warning criteria for both MEG and OHX...this, actually, may be the criteria for every NWS office.


Sustained wind or frequent gusts ≥ 35 mph & vsby ≤ 1/4 mile in snow and blowing snow for ≥ 3hrs
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:22:32 AM
Per MEG, winter storm watches likely by this afternoon
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 10:28:45 AM
If I'm in Memphis my biggest concern is this hasn't finished trending S/E yet. On the cusp of glory or misery here. Euro will be critical (which already had a tight gradient focused over the metro)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 10:34:31 AM
GFS says a couple of inches are possible even here Saturday morning. Bring it on, I'll be doing a 12 mile run in the national park rain, snow, or shine. Should be fun.
What are you training for?

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 20, 2016, 10:38:19 AM
Per MEG, winter storm watches likely by this afternoon
Safe to say OHX, MRX, even parts of HUN and even FFC may push the botton this afternoon/evening.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 10:39:42 AM
If I'm in Memphis my biggest concern is this hasn't finished trending S/E yet. On the cusp of glory or misery here. Euro will be critical (which already had a tight gradient focused over the metro)
I'm nervous.  That's all I have to say right now.

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 10:40:43 AM
Per MEG, winter storm watches likely by this afternoon
If things trend well on the models,  would they do a winter storm watch or a blizzard watch?

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk

Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:44:03 AM


(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/6da7ae2cfc1229f3b8861ddc305fab61.jpg)

12z GFS accums

(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/f1d5dbb6c1922d20b1cf57ce743d3aee.jpg)

12z nam


The place I wouldn't want to be is Jonesboro  for once.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 20, 2016, 10:44:17 AM
If things trend well on the models,  would they do a winter storm watch or a blizzard watch?

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk
I think a blizzard watch is very unlikely because of location and it's not exactly a sure thing.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:48:45 AM
Just looking at wind speeds euro also had 40 + gusts in the MS delta as did the GFS. Whoever gets that heavy snow band is going to see blizzard conditions at times.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 10:49:48 AM
I think a blizzard watch is very unlikely because of location and it's not exactly a sure thing.

Agreed. Too risky/too much uncertainity at this stage to issue a Blizzard Watch.
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:50:09 AM
This so much reminds me of December 2012 except further east.

Fayette Co seems to be the bullseye on most maps so far.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 20, 2016, 10:51:39 AM
What time on Friday are we talking about the snow arriving in the Nashville area?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 10:52:30 AM
This so much reminds me of December 2012 except further east.

Fayette Co seems to be the bullseye on most maps so far.

If this ends up missing Memphis barely to the east I may need to be tranquilized.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 20, 2016, 10:54:38 AM
They cancelled the warning and replaced with new watch.

Quote
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1134 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

.A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO EAST
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECONDARY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
KENTUCKY WHICH WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT TRAVEL AND COMMERCE ACROSS
THE REGION.

KYZ023-026-027-061>063-070>074-210000-
/O.CAN.KLMK.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160121T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLMK.WS.A.0002.160122T0000Z-160123T1200Z/
HANCOCK-OHIO-GRAYSON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-
ALLEN-BARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...BEAVER DAM...
HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...MORGANTOWN...BROWNS VILLE...HORSE CAVE...
MUNFORDVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW
1034 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

* TIMING...WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
  FRIDAY.

* MAIN IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTRY WEATHER ARE
  EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
  TRAVEL. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DANGEROUS. IF TRAVELING...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 10:55:56 AM
If this ends up missing Memphis barely to the east I may need to be tranquilized.
lmao... ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 10:59:47 AM
New graphic from MEG...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZLagb1UEAALY0H.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 11:02:18 AM

New graphic from MEG...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZLagb1UEAALY0H.jpg)

So far that's right on the money
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on January 20, 2016, 11:21:27 AM
Paul Heggen's latest blog

https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ash3211 on January 20, 2016, 11:26:42 AM
I am certainly not good at reading maps but does around the Dyersburg area looked to be getting passed over on the Friday storm? Thanks!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 11:29:43 AM
GFS Cobb has 9.4 at Memphis international- don't know if Cobb has ever been that generous
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 11:30:10 AM
Ensemble data concerns me as it doesn't have the TROWAL nearly as organized early on as the operational models. Basically the MEG area gets left out of much significant snowfall. Operational GGEM was similar. Must be honest I don't have great confidence right now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on January 20, 2016, 11:35:34 AM
Must be honest I don't have great confidence right now.

In snowfall for Tennessee, or just Memphis?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 11:37:45 AM
In snowfall for Tennessee, or just Memphis?

Moreso the MEG area. Maybe I'm relying on the Ensembles too much and their resolution isn't capable of handling a developing TROWAL early on (?)...but its apparent the means of both the GEFS (GFS) and EPS (ECMWF) have very low numbers across W TN and adjacent areas S/W then pick up E of the TN River rather steadily.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 20, 2016, 11:40:14 AM
12z Canadian says non event West of the TN River and monster event East of it.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 11:40:46 AM
Chat is down before Euro?  This will be 25 pages by this time next hour. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 11:41:43 AM
12z Canadian says non event West of the TN River and monster event East of it.

That's what I said 10 minutes but thanks for catching up....
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 11:42:06 AM
No doubt snowdog! LOL! ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on January 20, 2016, 11:44:03 AM
What is the all-time record snowfall for places like Memphis, Jackson, and Clarksville?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 11:47:11 AM
Hopefully will be 25 pages of fainting snow weenies
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 11:47:49 AM
What is the all-time record snowfall for places like Memphis, Jackson, and Clarksville?

I know for Nashville, it is 17" from a storm back in March 1892 (I think that was the year).  There were records of trains being stuck in snow drifts across Middle TN.  I believe Memphis and West TN had similar effects.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 11:49:21 AM
Euro is running, who is doing play by play?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 11:50:33 AM
So, high volume system use was overwhelming chat, and it had to be taken down.  I have a feeling that will remain the case through Friday's storm.

Looks like further discussion and analysis will be here.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 11:51:24 AM
Google hangout tonight?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 11:51:50 AM
The 24 hour record for CKV is 12 inches in 1917. I think it was in late Jan but I will have to check. In my lifetime here in CKV I have witnessed snows of 10 inches in 69 and 8 inches in 85, and 9 in march 08 but it didn't stay long. Of course several 6-7 inch snows in the mid 70's here that actually stacked on one another. But for a 24 hour period the biggest in my lifetime here was Dec 25,1969 10 inches in Montgomery county. I was 5 and barely remember it but it hooked me on snow I think. I would love to see the record fall, but I will take a 6 inch snow and run also. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 11:52:58 AM
I have a feeling the Euro is gonna make some very happy and others not so much but maybe it will be board wide.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 20, 2016, 11:55:06 AM
I have faith in the EURO!!!  Bring it home!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 11:57:42 AM
Ensemble data concerns me as it doesn't have the TROWAL nearly as organized early on as the operational models. Basically the MEG area gets left out of much significant snowfall. Operational GGEM was similar. Must be honest I don't have great confidence right now.
Honestly,  how can you remain objective about this?  I'm about to lose my mind.

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 11:57:58 AM
Come on Euro let's do this. A Tennessee Crusher! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 20, 2016, 12:00:11 PM
Come on Euro let's do this. A Tennessee Crusher! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Hope so. I'm not having that warm and fuzzy feeling at the moment. Hope it all goes well for us! ::yum::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 20, 2016, 12:00:42 PM
What is the all-time record snowfall for places like Memphis, Jackson, and Clarksville?

Memphis:
1. 18 inches, March 17, 1892
2. 17.3 inches, March 21-23, 1968
3. 14.3 inches, Dec. 22, 1963
4. 11.8 inches, Jan. 16, 1948
5. 9.6 inches, Jan. 7, 1884

The 17" snow in 1968 occurred during the Sanitation Workers Strike, which is why MLK was in Memphis throughout March and April 1968 until his assassination.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 20, 2016, 12:02:01 PM
The other weather people say it's digging south.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Tornado 73 on January 20, 2016, 12:02:34 PM
Come on Euro let's do this. A Tennessee Crusher! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Certainly north this run of the 0z.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 12:03:29 PM
Euro is north. Memphis is buried. Good lord
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 12:04:15 PM
Euro is north. Memphis is buried. Good lord
Buried in snow?

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 20, 2016, 12:04:36 PM
Someone says it's caving to the gfs
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 12:04:46 PM
Looks like ULL goes from from roughly Columbus, MS to Huntsville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 12:06:15 PM
!!ATTENTION!!

Due to the significance of Friday's winter storm, with high usage of the forum, especially since chat is down, we request that off topic conversation and banter be restricted.   Basically, think before you post, ask yourself-  is it helpful, and does it convey useful information to others.  This thread has the potential to be fast paced with a lot of posts coming in, so let's all do our part to limit anything that isn't helpful, as much as possible.

Thank you and carry on.  ::flag::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Tornado 73 on January 20, 2016, 12:07:15 PM
Euro is north. Memphis is buried. Good lord

How does this impact NE Arkansas?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 12:07:22 PM
Near 1" liquid equivalent along the I-40 corridor including the MEM metro. Surface temps start out marginal but I would think most/if not all of that is snow after 6-9z Friday. Good grief.

Nashville you're gonna love this run too. This is a generational storm for the forum as a whole...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 20, 2016, 12:08:16 PM
I'm on mobile. Euro looks colder? BNA looks like it goes to snow quickly? Someone help
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 12:09:31 PM
I'm on mobile. Euro looks colder? BNA looks like it goes to snow quickly? Someone help

You're buried. Don't worry.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 12:09:57 PM
Hearing Tennessee is getting hammered at hour 60.  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 12:11:07 PM
Deformation band sets up right across N TN.  12z Euro is a

(https://www.polkcountyiowa.gov/media/9965/stereotypical-bomb.jpg)

15" for CKV
10" for BNA/MQY/Lavergne
9" for Boro
16" for Dickson

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 20, 2016, 12:12:31 PM
Deformation band sets up right across N TN.  12z Euro is a

(https://www.polkcountyiowa.gov/media/9965/stereotypical-bomb.jpg)

15" for CKV
10" for BNA/MQY/Lavergne
9" for Boro
16" for Dickson

Let's cash out now!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 12:13:33 PM
Quite literally shaking right now. I'm not sure I've ever seen a more perfect scenario. It is too good to be true.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Btillman on January 20, 2016, 12:14:05 PM
New to site and love it....What does this mean for Tipton/ Lauderdale counties?  Have a school event saturday night and trying to determine what to do now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 20, 2016, 12:14:36 PM
Quite literally shaking right now. I'm not sure I've ever seen a more perfect scenario. It is too good to be true.

One can only hope it holds.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 20, 2016, 12:14:48 PM
So basically nobody is flying out of BNA until Sunday.  :P
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 12:14:55 PM
I'm on mobile. Euro looks colder? BNA looks like it goes to snow quickly? Someone help

Just sent you the PM of all PMs.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 12:15:19 PM
Looks like heaviest snow axis is from Camden, TN to Bowling Green, KY...roughly.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 12:16:19 PM
OMG!!!!!!!!!!! ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 12:17:04 PM
Ok everybody going to urge calm right now. Just chill.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 12:17:51 PM
Looks like heaviest snow axis is from Camden, TN to Bowling Green, KY...roughly.
Bullseye of 15" on Dickson.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 20, 2016, 12:18:11 PM
Euro gears up over central Ar on this run. Text data....

Little Rock - 5"
Jonesboro - 2"
Dyersburg - 3.9"
Olive Branch - 7.7"
Jackson - 13"
Nashville - 14.1"
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 12:19:40 PM
Ok everybody going to urge calm right now. Just chill.

Hopefully the ensembles hold serve on the Euro.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 12:21:07 PM
The progged totals are *probably* a tad high, with the realistic numbers being an inch or two less, given the warm(er) ground temps and previous rainfall.  Just something to watch out for.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 12:22:57 PM
The progged totals are *probably* a tad high, with the realistic numbers being an inch or two less, given the warm(er) ground temps and previous rainfall.  Just something to watch out for.

Im sure it will not be a problem for you to give up an inch of your 12.  8)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 12:27:20 PM
Im sure it will not be a problem for you to give up an inch of your 12.  8)

So long as BNA doesn't end up in the freaking "dry slot" or even on the fringe of it, I will be happy. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 12:27:47 PM
Let's step back a moment and analyze...

3-hourly data would be nice here and there are a few sources of that I'll be scouring out here shortly. Certainly in this dynamic setup a transition to a period of sleet before heavy snow is possible but how much/long is unknown. 925/850 maps off the Euro show a quick crash in these numbers from unfavorable to extremely favorable levels as heavy precip moves over the area...so much is happening so fast that 6-hourly maps aren't simply handling this precisely.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 12:30:56 PM
Let's step back a moment and analyze...

3-hourly data would be nice here and there are a few sources of that I'll be scouring out here shortly. Certainly in this dynamic setup a transition to a period of sleet before heavy snow is possible but how much/long is unknown. 925/850 maps off the Euro show a quick crash in these numbers from unfavorable to extremely favorable levels as heavy precip moves over the area...so much is happening so fast that 6-hourly maps aren't simply handling this precisely.

00z 4km NAM should help resolve that tonight. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 12:32:46 PM
Notice what happens in the Euro between hour 48 and 54...the low pressure nearly stalls at the MS/AL border as the explosive 500 mb TROWAL really takes shape in W TN and N MS. This is a classic situation and similar setups have resulted in extraordinarily large snowfall rates/totals. If this verifies there will be some unbelievable things happening in these areas Friday morning.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 12:33:17 PM
Its always good to go with a percentage rule when looking at these great clown maps. The Euro just showed me with 8 or 9" so I should be happy to get a quarter or a third of that. That would mean 2 or 3 inches. I will order that up and smile about it.  :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 12:36:29 PM
If this verifies there will be some unbelievable things happening in these areas Friday morning.

This is how I picture it...
(http://photo-viewbug.s3.amazonaws.com/media/mediafiles/2013/12/25/5652981_large.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 12:38:36 PM
As a side note, because of the snow bomb shown on the Euro our Sunday warmup is gone. Shows a low of 6 on Sunday morning for Nashville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cgauxknox on January 20, 2016, 12:38:57 PM
So does this shift south do enough to bring Knoxville and other areas of east TN into snow rather than rain?  I'm watching the discussion here closely as you guys often (OK, almost always) are faster and more accurate than the local mets on major events.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 20, 2016, 12:42:13 PM
So does this shift south do enough to bring Knoxville and other areas of east TN into snow rather than rain?  I'm watching the discussion here closely as you guys often (OK, almost always) are faster and more accurate than the local mets on major events.

We don't have to take responsibility for our forecasts.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: andyhb on January 20, 2016, 12:45:58 PM
Well there's that I-40 obliteration that people here have been talking about all these years...

Almost certain there would be periods TSSN with this as well. The 700 mb VVs are crazy with that band along with a decent amount of elevated instability and strong mid level height falls.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Crockett on January 20, 2016, 12:47:22 PM
So does this shift south do enough to bring Knoxville and other areas of east TN into snow rather than rain?  I'm watching the discussion here closely as you guys often (OK, almost always) are faster and more accurate than the local mets on major events.

Euro verbatim is light accums (advisory level) for the valley but there's potential for more.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Beth on January 20, 2016, 12:50:13 PM
Bullseye of 15" on Dickson.
I will gladly share! Lol  ;)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: angrypug on January 20, 2016, 12:51:09 PM
Clay Travis is posting the euro map.  We're now cursed and Guaranteed a cold rain.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 12:51:36 PM
Have to think MEG, OHX, and PAD issue Winter Storm Watches this afternoon. They may hold off until tonight to see the 0z runs, but I really don't see why you would hold off. You would be putting everyone in the WSW area anyway.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 12:52:29 PM
Clay Travis is posting the euro map.  We're now cursed and Guaranteed a cold rain.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And now people will be upset when they don't get those totals. I hate when he does that.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 12:53:02 PM
Boy, BNA is close to something historic according to text.  Another .6" QPF falls with Temps 33.7 to 32.0.  With roughly an inch of QPF below 32.  Amazing.  Thanks to WarEagle from AmericanWx. 

(https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-3027-0-29398500-1453314924.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 12:55:37 PM
Have to think MEG, OHX, and PAD issue Winter Storm Watches this afternoon. They may hold off until tonight to see the 0z runs, but I really don't see why you would hold off. You would be putting everyone in the WSW area anyway.

When asked on twitter if MEG was issuing watches this afternoon...the reply was simply "yes"
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: kristin on January 20, 2016, 12:56:33 PM
How's this looking for the plateau?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 12:57:35 PM
And now people will be upset when they don't get those totals. I hate when he does that.

What else is an attention-seeking @$$clown going to do?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 12:58:40 PM
CIPS analog, going off 12z NAM...

(http://i68.tinypic.com/33bhmpl.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 12:59:33 PM
The low track on the GEFS is a think of beauty. In reviewing the 12Z ensemble runs of both the GEM and GFS, both appear further south of their op runs. Not the bomb totals of the Euro, but very nice. What is this strange occurrence of multiple models actually agreeing on a significant snow for us 48 hours before the event? It. feels. weird.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Crockett on January 20, 2016, 01:00:49 PM
How's this looking for the plateau?

Crossville north does well on the latest Euro (6+"), higher amounts north and lesser amounts south. All models showing at least borderline WSW criteria for the upper Cumberland though.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 01:00:54 PM
Just looked at wind fields - dang winds just under the GFS but gusting to 40 at kmem.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: kristin on January 20, 2016, 01:07:44 PM
Crossville north does well on the latest Euro (6+"), higher amounts north and lesser amounts south. All models showing at least borderline WSW criteria for the upper Cumberland though.

Awesome!  Thank you!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 20, 2016, 01:12:01 PM

I'm on mobile. Euro looks colder? BNA looks like it goes to snow quickly? Someone help

Hate to break it to you Mundie... There's nothing anyone can do to help you...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 20, 2016, 01:24:16 PM
This forecast will a tough one for the PAH and MEG CWA's.  With the southward trend the northwestern edge of the band of heavy snow will be over these CWA's more than likely.  It should be noted that it pretty much goes from all to nothing with this band as well so we will likely see situations where 1 location had a dusting to an inch and another one 20-30 miles down the road may have 4 or more inches of snow on the ground.    A very sharp gradient which means that a 50 mile shift either way could put someone who was in or the near the sweet spot on the outside looking in and vice-versa.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RobD on January 20, 2016, 01:28:24 PM
I've just looked at the ensembles for the storm totals and it looks like it's sagging south enough now where the Louisville to Cincinnati corridor isn't going to get crushed, but that southern KY up 65 is going to receive significant snow. Timing wise: what time do you think the I 65 corridor is going to start getting snow that will affect driving on the interstate. Thinking about leaving for Cinci Thursday night instead of Friday morning because if we wait till Friday it will be a no go.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Vols1 on January 20, 2016, 01:30:10 PM
Are those snow totals like 15" realistic or like a clown map?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 01:31:47 PM
Are those snow totals like 15" realistic or like a clown map?

Clown totals.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 20, 2016, 01:33:51 PM
I've just looked at the ensembles for the storm totals and it looks like it's sagging south enough now where the Louisville to Cincinnati corridor isn't going to get crushed, but that southern KY up 65 is going to receive significant snow. Timing wise: what time do you think the I 65 corridor is going to start getting snow that will affect driving on the interstate. Thinking about leaving for Cinci Thursday night instead of Friday morning because if we wait till Friday it will be a no go.

Timing is one of the things that is quite a challenge. Some models don't show a changeover to snow or a wintry mix till wee morning Friday and some start Thursday night from about Bowling Green and north. I would even think about trying for late Thursday morning-early afternoon if you can just to be safe. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 01:33:58 PM
Are those snow totals like 15" realistic or like a clown map?

Clown totals...and nobody should take it literally. But...the realistics of this kind of setup ... are double digit totals possible if not likely somewhere...even if localized? The logical answer is yes
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 20, 2016, 01:34:10 PM
WSW issued by MEG.

Text:
Quote
...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...

.AN INTENSIFYING STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN
AND SOME THUNDER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ICE PELLETS BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
THE POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES. THE STORM WILL LIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.

MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-210600-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0001.160122T0600Z-160123T0000Z/
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-
PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-
ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-BENTON TN-LAUDERDALE-
TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...
HOLLY SPRINGS...ASHLAND...RIPLEY MS...CORINTH...IUKA...TUNICA...
SENATOBIA...BOONEVILLE...CLARKSDALE...MARKS. ..BATESVILLE...
OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...PONTOTOC...TUPELO...FULTON...CHARLE STON...
WATER VALLEY...COFFEEVILLE...BRUCE...CALHOUN CITY...HOUSTON...
OKOLONA...AMORY...ABERDEEN...TIPTONVILLE...U NION CITY...MARTIN...
DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MIL AN...HUNTINGDON...
CAMDEN...RIPLEY TN...COVINGTON...BROWNSVILLE...ALAMO...JACKS ON...
HENDERSON...LEXINGTON...PARSONS...DECATURVIL LE...BARTLETT...
GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLIN GTON...SOMERVILLE...
OAKLAND...BOLIVAR...SELMER...SAVANNAH
133 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...MINOR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW
  ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 OR MORE INCHES.

* TIMING...12AM CST FRIDAY MORNING TO 6PM CST FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 01:38:23 PM
(http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/16/01/20/f414bbebb4790de0a930952035c799bd.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RobD on January 20, 2016, 01:38:50 PM
Timing is one of the things that is quite a challenge. Some models don't show a changeover to snow or a wintry mix till wee morning Friday and some start Thursday night from about Bowling Green and north. I would even think about trying for late Thursday morning-early afternoon if you can just to be safe.

Thanks StormNine.

Sadly that's not an option. And it's to go to a memorial service, otherwise I'd just cancel now. The models that run later today have 3 hour ranges, no? I'm think we'll make the go/no go decision by 10pm tonight since others traveling with us have to come up from AL.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 01:40:22 PM
Watches for the entire MEG CWA. I would say less confidence from Jonesboro to Dyersburg northwestward. Cant believe Im saying south of Jonesboro and D'burg for once lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 20, 2016, 01:45:38 PM
Thanks StormNine.

Sadly that's not an option. And it's to go to a memorial service, otherwise I'd just cancel now. The models that run later today have 3 hour ranges, no? I'm think we'll make the go/no go decision by 10pm tonight since others traveling with us have to come up from AL.

The 00Z GFS runs at or just after that time but by 10pm we would have at least the 00Z Nam and the 18Z runs under our belt.   The NAM runs out to 84 hours in 3 hour ranges and the GFS should be about at that range tonight. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 01:48:18 PM
Im not complaining. I really appreciate this place but it sure is hard getting use to no chat. Had to stop myself a couple of times on things I should not post. ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 20, 2016, 01:48:34 PM
Watches for the entire MEG CWA. I would say less confidence from Jonesboro to Dyersburg northwestward. Cant believe Im saying south of Jonesboro and D'burg for once lol

Yeah, we'll see if LZK lines up.

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lzk/graphicast/image2.gif)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Tornado 73 on January 20, 2016, 01:49:48 PM
Watches for the entire MEG CWA. I would say less confidence from Jonesboro to Dyersburg northwestward. Cant believe Im saying south of Jonesboro and D'burg for once lol

I'm not giving up all hope until in the morning. I live in se Jonesboro and hoping for at least 3-4 inches of the white stuff. Looks epic for a lot of folks on this board.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RobD on January 20, 2016, 01:50:48 PM
The 00Z GFS runs at or just after that time but by 10pm we would have at least the 00Z Nam and the 18Z runs under our belt.   The NAM runs out to 84 hours in 3 hour ranges and the GFS should be about at that range tonight.

You're the best! Thanks.
I keep having flashbacks to those folks stuck for a day in their cars on I-65 in Elizabethtown last year and I'd prefer not to have that experience. But need substantial "proof" to convince the spouse.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 01:56:08 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/06f99c164ba51a00f22c02b2e461f7ea.jpg)

Eurowx accumulations. Have to remember too, GFS looks a lot different especially east of the Tennessee River 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Michael on January 20, 2016, 01:57:00 PM

Worth mentioning for the curious that all of the snow in the east tn valley in that nam clown falls today. It has no snow from the weekend system except in NE TN. Too much WAA on this side of the state.

NAM looking spot on for today. 4" IMBY northeast of Morristown.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 01:57:13 PM
That map puts all of west Tn minus Lake Co in play
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 01:59:39 PM
 http://youtu.be/y7EJZpZjWgA

Meg saying travel almost impossible due to blowing and heavy snow
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 02:02:25 PM
That map puts all of west Tn minus Lake Co in play

That is something you really never hear. Yall think I always do good. Lake county wins EVERY time.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 20, 2016, 02:02:54 PM
I hope to get to the grocery today before the local mets let on to the potential. I assume there'll be some gutsy calls tonight.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Michael on January 20, 2016, 02:06:40 PM
Based on today's snow totals across the state, which model at 48-72 hrs out was most accurate? NAM?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 02:15:30 PM
18z NAM is going to be south...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dave R on January 20, 2016, 02:18:41 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZMILxTUMAAycTK.png:large)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 02:20:44 PM
Not a whole lot of detail in the text of the WSW from OHX... still time to add that.  They just knew they needed to put it out.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 02:21:37 PM
Euro ensemble finally came around on 12z with the mean totals back farther S/W...though still better to the N/E.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 02:22:39 PM
Not to nitpik, but seems odd to leave out Wayne, Lawrence, and Giles. Maybe HUN wants them to hold off.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 20, 2016, 02:25:24 PM

Not to nitpik, but seems odd to leave out Wayne, Lawrence, and Giles. Maybe HUN wants them to hold off.
Right now those counties are still OHX. I think eventually they'll be turned over because it just makes sense, at least for Giles.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on January 20, 2016, 02:27:17 PM
I like where the models are at currently. We know how this has gone the last few years. Last minute shift to bury southeast TN and screwing everyone else  ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 02:29:12 PM
Impressive cyclonic structure of the system on the 18Z NAM... very symmetrical.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 02:30:11 PM
Right now those counties are still OHX. I think eventually they'll be turned over because it just makes sense, at least for Giles.
I knew that they were in OHX's CWA. Just figured HUN wants to hold off for their TN counties so OHX agreed to hold off. They actually have a SWS for those counties that has more detail than the WSW does. Calling for 1-3" there.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 20, 2016, 02:30:24 PM
18z NAM is 50-60 miles south, but for the SE half of MEG, it holds serve. Basically hammers the area bounded by I-40 on the north and MS Hwy 6 to the South.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 02:31:41 PM
NAM has a great dform band across mid TN during the day Friday. It is going to have some nice totals for all of mid TN. Looks se of the other models.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 02:32:29 PM
The pivoting of the deform band on the 18z run is pretty classic.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 02:33:09 PM
Amazing...



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 02:34:11 PM
18z NAM is a winner
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016012018/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_13.png)
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016012018/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png)
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016012018/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_15.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 02:35:18 PM
3 pm Friday

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 02:35:57 PM
[attach=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 20, 2016, 02:36:29 PM
Too close to being the edge for me lol...Oh well congrats is in order for some on the board to cash in big!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 02:42:36 PM
I think you will do okay drift, that run had me on the edge of the good stuff myself. I think were okay right now. This thing probably isn't through with it's shifting yet if history is any indication. It might not be big shifts but we don't need much of one. This could still be a good one for most if not all of us. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on January 20, 2016, 02:43:14 PM
I like where the models are at currently. We know how this has gone the last few years. Last minute shift to bury southeast TN and screwing everyone else  ::rofl::
I think our karma has run its course. I suspect come Saturday we will be the only city without snow in the state. At least we are basically guaranteed to see some light snow falling. Haven't seen that in the city yet this year.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 02:43:28 PM
I have a feeling as the 500mb low closes off...which is probably going to be somewhere in NE MS...there's going to be some explosive snowfall rates and thunder under that deform band. Right now...that looks most likely in W TN and N MS probably somewhere between I-40 and excuse me for using this line but it fits... the EF-4 tornado track of 12/23.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 20, 2016, 02:44:15 PM
I think you will do okay drift, that run had me on the edge of the good stuff myself. I think were okay right now. This thing probably isn't through with it's shifting yet if history is any indication. It might not be big shifts but we don't need much of one. This could still be a good one for most if not all of us. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

May the force be with us ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 02:45:20 PM
4km NAM snowfall totals. 15" up my way? yes please!

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on January 20, 2016, 02:45:49 PM
To quote Pat Benatar = This will be a "heart breaker, dream maker, love taker, don't you mess around with me. You're a heart breaker."  ::shaking_finger:: ::snowman:: ::scratch:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 02:49:26 PM
4km NAM snowfall totals. 15" up my way? yes please!

The gap in snow totals in west Tn is caused by sleet showing up on the 4K NAM in the deform band. IMO this would be snow and if this particular run verified most everyone would be happy.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 02:51:21 PM
For those wondering about those 4k totals in W TN...

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016012018/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_14.png)

I'll bet a large sum of money that does NOT happen like that...so the deform band just disappears for a few hours as 996 mb low is cranking in NW AL?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 02:52:32 PM
The gap in snow totals in west Tn is caused by sleet showing up on the 4K NAM in the deform band. IMO this would be snow and if this particular run verified most everyone would be happy.
Tell it like it is Dyer!!!!  ::applause:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 02:52:50 PM
4km NAM snowfall totals. 15" up my way? yes please!

Approaching all time record totals for Davidson County there... I see a little piece of yellow there, which is 18".

Again, just a clown map not to take literally... but, wow...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 02:53:20 PM
The gap in snow totals in west Tn is caused by sleet showing up on the 4K NAM in the deform band. IMO this would be snow and if this particular run verified most everyone would be happy.

It's not even showing sleet. It's showing nothing! LOL
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016012018/nam4km_ref_frzn_seus_14.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 20, 2016, 02:53:33 PM
FYI - Tidbits accum maps seem to be screwed up.

Here's the 10:1 from pivotal, which also seems odd with no snow back towards memphis.

(http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160120/18Z/f54/acc10_1snowrv.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 02:54:24 PM
For those wondering about those 4k totals in W TN...

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016012018/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_14.png)

I'll bet a large sum of money that does NOT happen like that...so the deform band just disappears for a few hours as 996 mb low is cranking in NW AL?

 ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 02:54:58 PM
Approaching all time record totals for Davidson County there... I see a little piece of yellow there, which is 18".

Again, just a clown map not to take literally... but, wow...

To have the Hi-Res Nam, Euro, Euro Ens and GFS Ens all showing a big hit for BNA?  I feel like we have been here before...less than a year ago.  Let's do it again.   ::guitar::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 02:55:26 PM
FYI - Tidbits accum maps seem to be screwed up.

Here's the 10:1 from pivotal, which also seems odd with no snow back towards memphis.

(http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160120/18Z/f54/acc10_1snowrv.png)

See my post above. the 4k nam just dissipates the deform band for a few hours. Not exactly how meteorology works in such situations...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 02:57:24 PM
OHX:

Quote
CURRENTLY UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
NOW EXITING TO OUR EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY GEARING UP IN
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS CAN BE SEEN IN LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS OUT OF EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW THEN TRACKS UP THROUGH
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA ON FRIDAY WHILE CLOSED 850
MBAR LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER. SOMEWHAT RARE TO
SEE CLOSED 700 MBAR LOW THIS FAR SOUTH BUT WE HAVE ONE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO...GOOD DEFORMATION ZONES DEVELOPS ACROSS TENNESSEE.
SO EVERYTHING STACKING UP FOR A GOOD SNOW EVENT HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY AND
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 20, 2016, 02:58:08 PM
OHX's WSW: "1-5in with locally higher amounts."

I swear, their conservatism, even in the face of model output showing widespread at least 3in, is just hilarious.

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 02:58:20 PM
MEG...

Quote
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE 
EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT DOUBLE DISTURBANCES SEEN IN THE ROCKIES 
AND HIGH PLAINS. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE 
AND DEEPEN IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARKS BEFORE LIFTING 
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. ON THE SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE WILL FORM IN LOUISIANA AND TRACK TO WESTERN NORTH 
CAROLINA. THIS TRACK WILL INITIALLY ALLOW MODERATELY WARM AND 
MOIST AIR TO REACH THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE 
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONLY THE FAR NORTH WILL BE IN QUESTION 
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION MAY BE 
FREEZING RAIN. A CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE PRESENT LATE 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS 
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO ALABAMA. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT ANY 
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION 
WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 
COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -2C. A BRIEF PERIOD 
OF SLEET APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE ELEVATED WARM 
LAYER ERODES. FORECAST SKEWT'S SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM SOUTHEAST 
ARKANSAS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO WEST TENNESSEE 
ALONG THE 500MB LOW TRACK. THIS AXIS POTENTIALLY COULD CREATE 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A HIGH 
MOISTURE CONTENT AND THIS COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS 
MAY CREATE DOWN TREE LIMBS/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITH 
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MORE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. HAVEN'T HAD TO 
MUCH TO TIME TO CHECK FOR POTENTIAL CSI FORMING...BUT SEEING THE 
MODELS TRANSITION THE UPPER TROUGH FROM OPEN TO A CLOSED LOW OVER 
THE ARKLAMISS CSI WOULD BE FAVORABLE JUST TO IT'S NORTHEAST. SNOWFALL 
RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE AN HOUR AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSNOW WOULD 
BE THE RESULT. THE STORM WILL LIFT OUT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS 
SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE 
LOW AND MID 20S...WITH WINDCHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE 
NORTH. HAVE REDUCED TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED SNOWPACK 
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUFFICIENT SUN HOWEVER SHOULD START THE 
THAWING PROCESS. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 03:00:44 PM
It's not even showing sleet. It's showing nothing! LOL
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016012018/nam4km_ref_frzn_seus_14.png)

Yeah. I was using 32k NAM Simulated and 4k NAM clown. You get what Im saying. LOL
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 03:02:44 PM
New Zone Forecast...

Quote
THURSDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN 

CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET 
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 
20 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH INCREASING TO 35 MPH AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.   
FRIDAY...WINDY. SNOW IN THE MORNING 
THEN SNOW LIKELY IN THE 
AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 
30S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. CHANCE 
OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matt on January 20, 2016, 03:04:17 PM
Holy smokes. This could be the biggest snow in my lifetime.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 03:07:18 PM
Great blog from Erik P at MemphisWeather.Net...

http://blog.memphisweather.net/2016/01/significant-winter-storm-likely-on.html
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 03:08:07 PM
OHX's WSW: "1-5in with locally higher amounts."

I swear, their conservatism, even in the face of model output showing widespread at least 3in, is just hilarious.

I don't blame them...I'd say 0-5" and the 5" could be rain or snow...because well Nashville.  Just issue a flash flood watch and winter storm watch.  Cover all bases. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 20, 2016, 03:09:07 PM
I don't blame them...I'd say 0-5" and the 5" could be rain or snow...because well Nashville.  Just issue a flash flood watch and winter storm watch.  Cover all bases.
And a wind advisory, I can see us hitting wind gust criteria.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 03:11:35 PM
That zone forecast would qualify for a Blizzard Warning. ::wow:: ::faint::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Brad on January 20, 2016, 03:12:15 PM
Paul's latest blog. https://4warnweather.wordpress.com

My parents are flying out of BNA Friday at 1pm to visit my sister/brother in law in Europe and my stubborn dad doesn't see any need to be concerned about flights (wait for it...) based on intellicast.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 03:13:07 PM
And a wind advisory, I can see us hitting wind gust criteria.

Weenie Suicide Watch for the counties that get dry slotted.  If it ends up being up the 65 corridor to Davidson...the watch goes to a Warning. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 20, 2016, 03:17:26 PM
So, you know the pest has to ask. Is there anything the 4K NAM could be picking up on, with what looks like erosion of the NW flank of the deformation band? Energy transfer?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: memphishogfan on January 20, 2016, 03:18:03 PM
I leave Memphis and move to the where the sweet spot had been, Memphis gets hit with blizzard.

Weather Weenie mode in full blown hacked off.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on January 20, 2016, 03:18:50 PM
OHX's WSW: "1-5in with locally higher amounts."

I swear, their conservatism, even in the face of model output showing widespread at least 3in, is just hilarious.

You also have to remember they are forecasting for a coverage area that ranges from 300 feet above sea level to 2000 feet above sea level.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 03:19:37 PM
So, you know the pest has to ask. Is there anything the 4K NAM could be picking up on, with what looks like erosion of the NW flank of the deformation band? Energy transfer?

Just bad data. With a 996 mb low in NW AL, there is no chance precip isn't there for northern MS and west TN. I don't think it is meteorologically possible for it to look like that image.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 03:19:56 PM
Next up... 18Z GFS (to commence in about 10 minutes or so).
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on January 20, 2016, 03:21:02 PM
Next up... 18Z GFS (to commence in about 10 minutes or so).

Watch it come up with a solution that completely misses us or is a total rain event at 34 :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 03:21:25 PM
I don't blame them...I'd say 0-5" and the 5" could be rain or snow...because well Nashville.  Just issue a flash flood watch and winter storm watch.  Cover all bases.

I think at this point they are doing the right thing. This is a totally different set up from years past. Classic Miller B. I understand the skepticism but I think BNA is in a good position on this one.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 03:24:43 PM
Watch it come up with a solution that completely misses us or is a total rain event at 34 :)

(http://www.computing.co.uk/IMG/500/223500/banned-stamp.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Lcwthrnut on January 20, 2016, 03:41:06 PM
You can tell the 18z gfs is running. The thread fell silent.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 03:43:27 PM
I have a feeling 18z GFS is going to be good for BNA...

Edit: 3 contour closed 700mb low sitting over Huntsville. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 03:45:24 PM
Hour 42 - LP centered between Tupelo and Starkville, MS.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 03:47:29 PM
No good for MEM that's for sure. Pretty awful run actually
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 03:48:10 PM
Takes a jog to the north.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 03:48:18 PM
 ::wow:: ;D

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 03:49:26 PM
850s look kind of wonky at hours 42 and 45. Then better by 48 and 51.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 03:49:57 PM
That may be just about the perfect run for BNA. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Chipper31 on January 20, 2016, 03:51:21 PM
There's a 9" difference between NAM-4km "24-hour snowfall" and "snow depth" at BNA. Caveat emptor...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 20, 2016, 03:52:19 PM
I live in the Vollintine-Evergreen neighborhood on the northwest side of Midtown, so I'm hoping it doesn't trend too much further east/south or else I could be in trouble.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 03:52:29 PM
It is certainly not Euro or Nam quality, but from Jackson to Nashville and along the northern tier all the way to Tri it gets the job done. Memphis....well
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 03:53:15 PM
GFS continues to want to put the heaviest snow band through southern into central/eastern KY.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CT_Yankee on January 20, 2016, 03:53:55 PM
Seems to me the "jog north" is something to be leery of.  Let's just hope it stays put and is not a trend...am I right?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 03:56:55 PM
Seems to me the "jog north" is something to be leery of.  Let's just hope it stays put and is not a trend...am I right?

Right - I don't think it was a significant jog to the north... and it is the 18Z (famous last words, however  ;) ).
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Andy on January 20, 2016, 03:57:11 PM
Can any of you guys make sense of the forecast discussion from MRX for East Tennessee? I live in Erwin, bordering the NC mountains. Sounds like we might stay all frozen precip here. I would think todays snowfall would cause temps to come in lower correct? We have had 5 inches here today.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 03:57:46 PM
Seems to me the "jog north" is something to be leery of.  Let's just hope it stays put and is not a trend...am I right?
GFS accum map has actually held pretty steady today. Well, except for that snow hole it put on Memphis on the 18Z.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 20, 2016, 03:58:54 PM
No good for MEM that's for sure. Pretty awful run actually

Why was it such a bad run for MEM?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 04:00:57 PM
Why was it such a bad run for MEM?

It has no snow lol. Deform band struggles to really get going until N/E (and even then it looks nothing like the NAM/ECMWF). This has actually been persistent GFS problem and it continues to give me real hits on confidence of the truly higher-end stuff...and especially has me worried in the MEM area that we are far from a lock.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 04:01:51 PM
Well, except for that snow hole it put on Memphis on the 18Z.

Maybe, it suffered from the same data issue as the 18Z NAM... which lost part of the deformation band for some reason.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 20, 2016, 04:03:13 PM
It has no snow lol. Deform band struggles to really get going until N/E (and even then it looks nothing like the NAM/ECMWF). This has actually been persistent GFS problem and it continues to give me real hits on confidence of the truly higher-end stuff...and especially has me worried in the MEM area that we are far from a lock.

THROW IT OUT!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 04:03:22 PM
Why was it such a bad run for MEM?

The 18z GFS sucked for almost everyone. Throw it out.  ::rofl::

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012018/gfs_asnow_seus_15.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 04:03:57 PM
Not too worried - yet. GFS has heavy precip in the deformation band at Memphis- doesn't show as snow since temps are 33-34. I bet that's probably snow. At least it didn't show it disappearing lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 04:04:13 PM
Not buying the 18z GFS clown map depth gradients either...

Switchover in Murfreesboro looks to be between H45-48. 

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_8.png)

Skew-T confirms switchover at H48:

(http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016012018_048_36.0--86.5.png)

There's another 12-16 hours of qpf falling with temps below 32F and all we muster is 2"?  Not buying it.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 20, 2016, 04:05:53 PM
The 18z GFS sucked for almost everyone. Throw it out.  ::rofl::

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012018/gfs_asnow_seus_15.png)
Look at eastern WV and western VA and how the highest mountains have significantly less snow, which meteorologically makes 0 sense. Throw that run away.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on January 20, 2016, 04:05:59 PM
The GFS initialized with 3" snow depth here. As nice as that would be, it isn't true. The clowns are probably way wrong.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 04:07:10 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/0bbf7817bf1f6f8014d88e3aa411cd28.jpg)

Here's precip at 36- couldn't ask for a better track for snow. Darn 850 temps better cooperate
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 04:07:20 PM
Maybe, it suffered from the same data issue as the 18Z NAM... which lost part of the deformation band for some reason.

No that's a definite different issue that lies within the 4km NAM's technical specifications. If that was a theme in that model itself it would have been hinted at in the 12km version which it clearly wasn't. I think the GFS's issue in general is it doesn't want to keep the 500 mb low closed and reopens it as it moves out of MS. Been an off-and-on issue for several runs. Also...there might be some feedback issues at play.

Either way...while I am saying throw out the 4km NAM...I wouldn't throw out the GFS because there are meteorological reasons that we could be seeing what is being depicted. Therefore...it is a plausible scenario. Especially if you are further S/W...I have to be hesitant to call this thing a lock yet...and definitely don't go crazy with these blockbuster numbers that the NAM/ECMWF want to insist on just yet.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on January 20, 2016, 04:07:48 PM
Can any of you guys make sense of the forecast discussion from MRX for East Tennessee? I live in Erwin, bordering the NC mountains. Sounds like we might stay all frozen precip here. I would think todays snowfall would cause temps to come in lower correct? We have had 5 inches here today.

Hi Andy, It appears we will all warm on Thursday for a while but it definitely looks like you will drop back to below freezing on Thursday evening. The NWS might be a little aggressive with your high of 43 considering your 5" of snow on the ground. We'll see....get ready for more accumulating snow late Friday and Saturday!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 04:07:49 PM
18z RGEM...

[attachimg=1][attachimg=2][attachimg=3]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 04:08:12 PM
So, the 12Z runs were magical, while the 18Z runs have thrown in some doubts.

Hopefully, we'll have more confidence in something, for better or worse, after the 0Zs tonights.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 04:09:20 PM
Not too worried - yet. GFS has heavy precip in the deformation band at Memphis- doesn't show as snow since temps are 33-34. I bet that's probably snow. At least it didn't show it disappearing lol

Well...not quite. The GFS's precip in the MEM that's heaviest is 3-6z...that's not associated with the deform band and before the dynamics are in play to changeover the precip. The deform band is toward 12z....which is much much lighter and also mostly SE of the MEM area entirely.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 20, 2016, 04:09:44 PM
Had to do a double take...my grids were just updated. Can't say I've seen these accumulation forecasts for a long time...

Quote
Thursday Night Rain before midnight, then rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet. Low around 31. Blustery, with a north wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday Snow. High near 32. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 04:15:07 PM
Again...will note this QPF panel does seem a bit suspicious and may imply some feedback issues...which would have implications on upstream QPF (which is N/E). So it may be a mix of technical and meteorological issues for what the 18z GFS depicts.

Still...doesn't help my confidence...especially if you're on the potential NW edge of the deformation axis with very little room for error to miss out with even slight jogs S/E.

(http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_prec_prec_042.gif)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 04:19:08 PM
Had to do a double take...my grids were just updated. Can't say I've seen these accumulation forecasts for a long time...

MEG better pray on the NAM/ECMWF lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 04:22:55 PM
Fresh OHX graphic:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZMihfxUgAAFzBY.png:large)

Seems a bit on the low end...  ::coffee::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 04:23:58 PM
MEG better pray on the NAM/ECMWF lol

Kevin what does WREG use as their in house model ? RPM ?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 04:24:20 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/0c0d5b6a9041979146d17845b0cb4bf8.jpg)

There's your 18z nam totals for the entire event
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 20, 2016, 04:26:28 PM
Ol Lisa Patton was happy to go all in. Said west of I-65 would see more than 3" and that number would probably go up... Lol I'm rolling with Lisa for better or worse.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 04:27:49 PM
Fresh OHX graphic:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZMihfxUgAAFzBY.png:large)

Seems a bit on the low end...  ::coffee::

Well with the rain & ground temps. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 04:28:38 PM
Kevin what does WREG use as their in house model ? RPM ?

You can input any model into that computer and show it but most of the time they just show the RPM...so most likely.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 20, 2016, 04:32:31 PM
Fresh OHX graphic:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZMihfxUgAAFzBY.png:large)

Seems a bit on the low end...  ::coffee::


Counter to my wish casting. OHX has done pretty good being on the low end the past couple of years. They can always revise up but, 3 will certainly get people's attention.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 04:33:30 PM
You can input any model into that computer and show it but most of the time they just show the RPM...so most likely.
Just watched the update at 4:15. It looked like one of us ran the model.  ;D Was absolutely perfect for all. Had Memphis dead center of deform band with it expanding as it goes east.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 04:34:30 PM
Here's your 18z nam simulated radar(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/c60ff20d866aa6d16d7211e7b95a6683.jpg)(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/129e3c960001f88aa01dc7278e17b972.jpg)(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/554654cbc865bc8600b50727d7f52a1c.jpg)(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/cb09f255446232a998f21db391eff061.jpg)(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160120/b26774a844e1d34ffb3edd462d53ea7a.jpg)

It's getting its act together right over Memphis. Could be bust could be boom. Certainly areas around Jackson could rock it as it really gets its act together. Look at the 32 line carefully. Obviously 850's are crashing so might be precip type issues. My experience with most of these types of events are a quick change from rain to snow - not sleet
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 04:52:19 PM
Did anyone see Ron Howes?  My sister just texted "he said Nashville east is all rain and only a trace of snow"?  Really?
How does a WSW even get issued if that is what happens.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on January 20, 2016, 04:54:42 PM
18z RGEM...

(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

I may be wrong, but I don't believe this model was close to correct for today's storm. At this time frame.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 20, 2016, 04:55:37 PM
Did anyone see Ron Howes?  My sister just texted "he said Nashville east is all rain and only a trace of snow"?  Really?
How does a WSW even get issued if that is what happens.

Southeast of Nashville that's certainly a possibility. But he's definitely not using any current model guidance that I've seen.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 04:56:58 PM
I may be wrong, but I don't believe this model was close to correct for today's storm. At this time frame.

It wasn't. It performed pretty horrible actually. Doesn't mean it will on this one necessarily...of course.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 04:57:15 PM
SREF plumes are starting to go up. There is a 3 inch mean for all of west Tn and goes up to 4 inches for BNA.

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: utvols235 on January 20, 2016, 04:58:09 PM
So it's not worth getting excited in Knoxville unlike the rest of the state?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 04:58:45 PM
Did anyone see Ron Howes?  My sister just texted "he said Nashville east is all rain and only a trace of snow"?  Really?
How does a WSW even get issued if that is what happens.

I'm not sure WTF Ron is looking at.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 04:58:54 PM
Southeast of Nashville that's certainly a possibility. But he's definitely not using any current model guidance that I've seen.

I told her I have no idea what he is looking at.  She said he said "only .2 to .5 of snow for Nashville"?  I understand being conservative but really?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 04:59:38 PM
I'm not sure WTF Ron is looking at.

Maybe he runs the snow dome?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CT_Yankee on January 20, 2016, 05:02:13 PM
Wasn't there a storm last year where we were looking at models 2 days ahead showing 6+ inches while Ron Howes said around 1", and at the last minute he ended up being right?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 05:05:05 PM
Fresh OHX graphic:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZMihfxUgAAFzBY.png:large)

Seems a bit on the low end...  ::coffee::

Considering what the models are suggesting, it does.

But, I can't fault them.  I even told family today that models are showing the potential for amazing accumulations, but I think we'll end up with a couple of inches.

I'm obviously rooting for what the models are suggesting.  But, cumulative experience leads me otherwise.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 05:05:24 PM
Wasn't there a storm last year where we were looking at models 2 days ahead showing 6+ inches while Ron Howes said around 1", and at the last minute he ended up being right?

I understand making your own forecast, but to differ SO MUCH from OHX?  I don't know,man.....
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CT_Yankee on January 20, 2016, 05:05:54 PM
I'm obviously rooting for what the models are suggesting.  But, cumulative experience leads me otherwise.

^^ This.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 05:14:47 PM
Preparing myself for the 0z runs to be a mass disaster for the MEM contingent if nobody else. GFS/GEFS just has me worried.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on January 20, 2016, 05:17:04 PM
GFS/GEFS just has me worried.

The more excited the folks on this board become the more cautious I get. 
Been here, and been crushed.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 05:19:08 PM
Ron Howes had the CKV area at 9 inches but not much anywhere else. It didn't make much sense overall. But I could tell he thought that this could be the one. Tonight all of the local mets looked like they wanted to pull the trigger. I am almost surprised they acted as up on it as they did this early compared with how the normally are a few days out. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 20, 2016, 05:19:47 PM
I understand making your own forecast, but to differ SO MUCH from OHX?  I don't know,man.....
This, because that's basically slapping the mets at OHX in the face. Going against them AND model outputs by that much is just a complete and utter lack of meteorological professionalism.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 05:23:55 PM
WPC snowfall probability of at least 4"

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 05:24:23 PM
Preparing myself for the 0z runs to be a mass disaster for the MEM contingent if nobody else. GFS/GEFS just has me worried.

Didn't last years choke job do the same.  Started looking bad late for Memphis, but Nashville was still good.  Then a model or two runs later right before the event Nashville lost it too.  Lets not start that trend again.  I hope you guys get buried....just be on the western edge of it...don't want BNA in the dry slot.   ::whistling::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cgauxknox on January 20, 2016, 05:24:34 PM
WATE in Knoxville tonight is saying rain on Friday then 2-4 inches of snow overnight into Saturday but they aren't really confident in the solutions at this point.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 20, 2016, 05:24:50 PM
Yeah I just read 10 pages, you all have been going nuts!  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 05:25:56 PM
Yeah I just read 10 pages, you all have been going nuts!  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

There seemed to be a bit of anxiety over the 18z suite.   ::sick::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 05:28:03 PM
Didn't last years choke job do the same.  Started looking bad late for Memphis, but Nashville was still good.  Then a model or two runs later right before the event Nashville lost it too.  Lets not start that trend again.  I hope you guys get buried....just be on the western edge of it...don't want BNA in the dry slot.   ::whistling::

Well we still ended up with a major sleet storm and I was personally fine with that (it was disappointing at the time of course lol). Plus we had good events later in the winter that made it a pretty great season overall for me.

The meteorology of this event strongly suggests the TROWAL will be there. Moreso than the GFS being exactly right with almost nothing as far as that explicitly...I'm worried that this is so close to sliding the wrong way and us being too far N/W...or the TROWAL doesn't get going until too late locally. So little room for error. Who knows we're all so jaded after so many heartbreaks lol.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 05:31:56 PM
Everybody is tense, a bunch of thoughts from the people on this board right now are ::pondering:: ::yum:: ::shaking_finger:: ::applause::::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::!!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 05:33:43 PM
Well we still ended up with a major sleet storm and I was personally fine with that (it was disappointing at the time of course lol). Plus we had good events later in the winter that made it a pretty great season overall for me.

The meteorology of this event strongly suggests the TROWAL will be there. Moreso than the GFS being exactly right with almost nothing as far as that explicitly...I'm worried that this is so close to sliding the wrong way and us being too far N/W...or the TROWAL doesn't get going until too late locally. So little room for error. Who knows we're all so jaded after so many heartbreaks lol.
I'm bringing all the optimism and hope with me I can muster my friend. Let's do this!!!! ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 05:35:52 PM
It was the 18z GFS/18z NAM.  18z runs are notoriously bunk anyway.  If the 0z runs go south, I'm done with weather.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 05:39:11 PM
personally im not worried with one bad 18zgfs run...lets see what the 0z nam does... then we go from there... almost about short range time shortly anyways... trowels r hard to model on the global models... thus far we have th king in our corner... who cares ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: iam calling for I 40 corridor 5 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts  being in center of the deform band... whoever that is :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 05:48:47 PM
latest SREF plume at NQA is about 3 inches. EURO ENS was 3-4 inches, EURO was about 6. 18z GEFS about 2
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 05:52:54 PM
And it's been slowly increasing over the last few runs
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 05:54:06 PM
MEG better pray on the NAM/ECMWF lol

MEG is going all in at this point. Looks to have 4 to 8 just about area wide.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 05:55:31 PM
These are the 18z GEFS members. If I'm in Memphis I'm sweating bullets for these 0z runs...just being honest...

Hope the GFS/GEFS is a fluke

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 05:56:35 PM
I like what I read on klzk afd out of little rock... they had from pinebluff to Brinkley 4 to 6 inches.... that's nice...  could be start of the deform band... and you would think that area of snow should get pulled to the ne with the slp moving ne but only increase in intensity as the slp deepens further east...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 05:57:44 PM

These are the 18z GEFS members. If I'm in Memphis I'm sweating bullets for these 0z runs...just being honest...

Hope the GFS/GEFS is a fluke

The 12 z GEFS wasn't much better. But honestly, we are within 48 hours. Def some guidance but I would think ops are better. 24 hours from now-its about now time
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 06:04:00 PM
its like this   if the gfs could speak... it would say, I am going on a island alone and win with scoring a big upset over the other global models... or I am just going to give up and become an outlier...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 06:07:10 PM
For what it's worth, the WPC noted in its heavy snow and icing discussion not long ago that it used a blend of the 0z EPS & 6z GEFS
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 06:08:55 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/xp8uw.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 06:12:09 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/xp8uw.jpg)

#win
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 06:14:22 PM
WPC Probs show north of I-40 in BNA as a 40% chance of great than 6" snow. 

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=2&day=null (http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=2&day=null)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 06:16:00 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/xp8uw.jpg.)
I am high  your right. high on this potential big snow storm... just stating my opinion that makes sense...whats wrong with that ... I worked hard n late today... just now getting chance to chime in
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 06:21:21 PM
I am high  your right. high on this potential big snow storm... just stating my opinion that makes sense...whats wrong with that ... I worked hard n late today... just now getting chance to chime in

It's okay...take a breath lol. Inhale especially....

 ;)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Farris_TN on January 20, 2016, 06:27:18 PM
I don't know what model WKRN Channel 2 uses but Lisa Patton went from having changeover from Rain to Snow occuring at 8-9 AM Friday on 5 o'clock news, to 3-4 PM on Friday on 6 o'clock news and not as much accumulating snow. She had around 3" in Clarksvilke.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 06:27:43 PM
This is what's in the NDFD right now (the WFO grids)...

[attach=1]

Clearly somebody is more aggressive than others...

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 06:33:17 PM
WREG out of Memphis is showing 7 inches in Memphis and NW Ms. 3 to 4 up this way.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 20, 2016, 06:34:06 PM
This is what's in the NDFD right now (the WFO grids)...

(Attachment Link)

Clearly somebody is more aggressive than others...
That's just absurd. At least there's continuity between OHX's Alabama border counties and HUN's CWA.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 20, 2016, 06:34:48 PM
I will be rooting for you all to get your much needed heavy snow event instead of wintry mix or cold rain.   The only concern is that because we are likely dealing with a deformation band that has a potentially sharp gradient there will be some big winners and some big losers unfortunately(or fortunately because I know a lot of Kentuckians who loved snow prior to the last winter now don't feel the same anymore, I'm not one of those Kentuckians lol).  Hopefully I-40 comes out on the winners team. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 06:35:58 PM
Time to decompress before the 0z suites drive everybody towards drink.  Fresh episodes of Curse of Oak Island and Mythbusters are on tap.  Dueces.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 06:37:52 PM
Time to decompress before the 0z suites drive everybody towards drink.  Fresh episodes of Curse of Oak Island and Mythbusters are on tap.  Dueces.

Before? I've already had two shots of jack. I need to calm down...several people have given me the hint lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 06:38:54 PM
Time to decompress before the 0z suites drive everybody towards drink.  Fresh episodes of Curse of Oak Island and Mythbusters are on tap.  Dueces.
I am going to kill time till 0z suits by watching Tennessee kick vandy butt in basketball 8 clock ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 06:39:10 PM
Before? I've already had two shots of jack. I need to calm down...several people have given me the hint lol

oops....  ::candle::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 06:40:19 PM
oops....  ::candle::

You were not the only one hahaha
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 20, 2016, 06:41:30 PM
Yeah, I have been trying to be calm, its been good other than the random outbursts ..... But that is ok right ?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 20, 2016, 06:42:29 PM
WREG out of Memphis is showing 7 inches in Memphis and NW Ms. 3 to 4 up this way.

To be fair they showed two models. One had the deformation band output from Memphis almost due south over I-55 and the second one had the deformation band from Jackson TN going north into KY. That last one only gives most of west tn .5 to 2 inches. Think the point they were trying to show is too much uncertainty this far out for a map showing accum.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on January 20, 2016, 06:55:34 PM
We have been burned so many times in the past.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 07:03:32 PM
We have been burned so many times in the past.

That makes me think of this:

Quote from: mempho on December 25, 2012, 01:57:27 PM
Kevin, 

Surely you can toss out all of your analyzses of what can go wrong and believe for 1 day.   It is Christmas,  you know.   ::)

Sent from my DroidX using Tapatalk 2

Actually I can't. I'm here to scientifically analyze what's going on...not "believe" in something else when the data is against it. I'm just as hopeful as I can be that something different happens in the end but I'm not being a very good forecaster if I'm always posting with my heart instead of my head.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 07:05:53 PM
To be fair they showed two models. One had the deformation band output from Memphis almost due south over I-55 and the second one had the deformation band from Jackson TN going north into KY. That last one only gives most of west tn .5 to 2 inches. Think the point they were trying to show is too much uncertainty this far out for a map showing accum.
Thanks for adding that. I did not see that. I only saw the RPM and the snow totals that had the heavier band from Shelby county down towards Tunica.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 07:11:06 PM
That makes me think of this:

Quote from: mempho on December 25, 2012, 01:57:27 PM
Kevin, 

Surely you can toss out all of your analyzses of what can go wrong and believe for 1 day.   It is Christmas,  you know.   ::)

Sent from my DroidX using Tapatalk 2

Actually I can't. I'm here to scientifically analyze what's going on...not "believe" in something else when the data is against it. I'm just as hopeful as I can be that something different happens in the end but I'm not being a very good forecaster if I'm always posting with my heart instead of my head.

For the love of God why would you bring up that disaster at a time like this ?  ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 07:13:27 PM
That makes me think of this:

Quote from: mempho on December 25, 2012, 01:57:27 PM
Kevin, 

Surely you can toss out all of your analyzses of what can go wrong and believe for 1 day.   It is Christmas,  you know.   ::)

Sent from my DroidX using Tapatalk 2

Actually I can't. I'm here to scientifically analyze what's going on...not "believe" in something else when the data is against it. I'm just as hopeful as I can be that something different happens in the end but I'm not being a very good forecaster if I'm always posting with my heart instead of my head.

Oh my don't bring this up now lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 07:18:32 PM
That makes me think of this:

Quote from: mempho on December 25, 2012, 01:57:27 PM
Kevin, 

Surely you can toss out all of your analyzses of what can go wrong and believe for 1 day.   It is Christmas,  you know.   ::)

Sent from my DroidX using Tapatalk 2

Actually I can't. I'm here to scientifically analyze what's going on...not "believe" in something else when the data is against it. I'm just as hopeful as I can be that something different happens in the end but I'm not being a very good forecaster if I'm always posting with my heart instead of my head.
Alas,  even I have become jaded....

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 07:36:57 PM
For the love of God why would you bring up that disaster at a time like this ?  ::rofl::

Alas,  even I have become jaded....

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk



Oh my don't bring this up now lol

Blame Kevin for saturating my brain with negativity lol... and this long wait on new data
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: pirates1 on January 20, 2016, 07:41:00 PM
I have a 9:30 Dr appointment Friday morning in Franklin.  Should I try to change it for after work tomorrow or leave it for Friday.  I keep seeing different times for storm hitting our area.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Lcwthrnut on January 20, 2016, 07:43:21 PM
Hurry up 8:30. And bring us some positive data!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 20, 2016, 07:44:10 PM
I have a 9:30 Dr appointment Friday morning in Franklin.  Should I try to change it for after work tomorrow or leave it for Friday.  I keep seeing different times for storm hitting our area.

I'd move it if at all possible, better safe than sorry.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 07:44:42 PM
Blame Kevin for saturating my brain with negativity lol... and this long wait on new data

LOL I know I will either look like a fool soon and feel great relief or will be partaking in additional shots hahaha
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 20, 2016, 07:47:42 PM
This will be remembered as the night TnWx turned into a therapy session.  ;)

0Z NAM should be rolling within the next hour.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 07:47:56 PM
New image from MEG...

at least there are no changes for Thursday/Friday  ::popcorn::

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 20, 2016, 07:48:08 PM
Hoping the for the best. .
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Lcwthrnut on January 20, 2016, 07:49:28 PM
New image from MEG

At least the confidence level is a 5 for Friday!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 20, 2016, 07:51:44 PM
Anxiety is high in our house. There's this hill just up the road where, while sledding at a young age, I fell in love with the most beautiful girl I'd ever seen. My wife knows this, I've told her. And, she knows that whenever it snows I'm going to go up to that hill and look for this girl. It hasn't snowed well enough in years. And, I haven't seen her there in many years. But I've got a feeling about this one. You see, we're moving this August, this will likely be my last opportunity to see her on this hill for a long time. She grew up on street 1 and I on street 2. My wife and I now live on street 3, all bisecting this magnificent hill. I'm hoping this storm performs. I feel like before we move, I have just one more chance to see this girl sledding this hill. I'm really looking forward to seeing this girl rocketing down the hill on her sled and hearing my son yell "Go Mom Go!" I'm ready for snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CloudyDay on January 20, 2016, 07:56:29 PM
Any chance temps underachieve tomorrow? If so, can that mess with the amount of moisture going into Friday?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 08:03:19 PM
00z NAM is a touch north with ULL thru 21 hr.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Tornado 73 on January 20, 2016, 08:05:18 PM
Nam is definitely north of the 18z run and looks liked it closed off earlier.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on January 20, 2016, 08:07:37 PM
NAM well north out to 27
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 08:08:44 PM
Precip field looks bigger at 27. Hmmmm
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 08:09:37 PM
Precip field looks bigger at 27. Hmmmm

Im at 33 and its much bigger than before with more snow into central AR
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 20, 2016, 08:10:16 PM
Definitely farther north but TONS more precip. Hour 33 looks great...

(http://models.weatherbell.com/nam/2016012100/memphis/nam_ref_memphis_12.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 20, 2016, 08:11:44 PM
Man it looks strong!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JTM1988 on January 20, 2016, 08:12:07 PM
That dry slot scares me


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 20, 2016, 08:12:15 PM
Not sure this pans out well for BNA yet, we shall see.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 08:13:08 PM
ULL closes off over north MS/sw TN
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 20, 2016, 08:13:39 PM
0z NAM has MEM switchover at 6am. That would be a disaster for the morning commute.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 20, 2016, 08:13:53 PM
Track really does not look too much different out to 33
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 08:15:04 PM
Way way more snow in Ark than previous runs.
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016012100/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_10.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on January 20, 2016, 08:15:12 PM
Totally different run from 18Z. Wow
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 08:15:19 PM
Come on let's do this!!!!  ::fingerscrossed::::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 08:16:24 PM
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016012100/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_11.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 08:16:57 PM
Track really does not look too much different out to 33

Looks similar to 12z at the surface... just a little more north than 18z
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 08:18:26 PM
GFS vs EURO in track.  Oh brother.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 08:19:18 PM
Well that wasn't the trend I was afraid of tonight with the 0z models...I'll say that much
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Tornado 73 on January 20, 2016, 08:19:36 PM
Way way more snow in Ark than previous runs.
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016012100/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_10.png)
Looks like yesterdays run.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CT_Yankee on January 20, 2016, 08:20:42 PM
I'm thinking that anyone getting their hopes up too much right now could be doing themselves a disservice. Just have a serious case of deja vu.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 20, 2016, 08:21:22 PM
Smh.... Not a great run if you live in Nashville in my opinion .Will see if the GFS follows this trend.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 08:23:29 PM
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016012100/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_12.png)
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016012100/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_13.png)
()
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on January 20, 2016, 08:23:49 PM
Little Rock went from maybe an inch on the previous two runs to a foot on this run...Sounds about right.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 08:24:53 PM
What the heck was that?  LOL.  BNA, you can't unsee what you just saw. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 08:25:51 PM
Doesn't look too bad to me for a lot of the state. But I will defer to better folks better at this than me. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Lcwthrnut on January 20, 2016, 08:26:16 PM
Well... All that praying must have paid off for Memphis!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 08:26:48 PM
I guess Jonesboro will get their usual snow storm.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 20, 2016, 08:27:54 PM
That low track is not good for MEM is it?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 20, 2016, 08:28:08 PM
Well... All that praying must have paid off for Memphis!

Yeah this run gives Memphis and counties along the river a good hit
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 20, 2016, 08:28:26 PM
I see that were back to a solution that will give me an up close and personal with the low.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 08:28:33 PM
Unreal.  I would bet the house that the GFS does the same.  Does it not run off some of the NAM data?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 08:29:51 PM
Doesn't look too bad to me for a lot of the state. But I will defer to better folks better at this than me. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

You still do excellent. The gradient for middle TN is tight. Joelton could get 6" while SE Davidson gets only an inch or so.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 08:30:14 PM
If I choose between the 0z NAM and 18z GFS I'm riding with the 0z NAM all day.............
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 20, 2016, 08:31:07 PM
That NAM run would be a crippling strike to NW TN and Kentucky and the Tennessee border counties that border Kentucky. Would be looking at locally up to a 1/2 inch plus of ice from SE Missouri running across southern KY plus a major snow hit along with gusty winds up to 25-35MPH. Tweets noticed that the trough took on more of a neutral tilt leading to the low going more poleward.  Still want to see if the GFS will follow the 00Z Nam and few of the in house models on the TV stations. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 08:32:26 PM
Boy, the NAM just put the ole screws to the I-40 corridor.  It's the NAM...what can you do.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 08:32:54 PM
0z NAM does look a lot better but I'm not totally buying that surface low to move that far north when it looks so great at 500mb...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 20, 2016, 08:34:03 PM
Still a good hit for West TN, NW MS. If you want to snow chase on Friday, I-40 between Little Rock and Jackson, TN is the place to go. Somebody along there is going to get walloped.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: marjl21 on January 20, 2016, 08:35:05 PM
Wow... The 4km nam is dropping 2'+ in western KY
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 08:35:40 PM

You still do excellent. The gradient for middle TN is tight. Joelton could get 6" while SE Davidson gets only an inch or so.
f

Just what Ron Howes was showing.  Well I am sure he has seen this soooooo many times he knows better to predict more than an inch for I40.   When will I learn?  Lol.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on January 20, 2016, 08:36:29 PM

You still do excellent. The gradient for middle TN is tight. Joelton could get 6" while SE Davidson gets only an inch or so.
I'd love to will this storm a bit further south for our Nashville brethren who have been so snow starved these past few years. That being said, if I'm chasing this, I'm heading for CKV.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JTM1988 on January 20, 2016, 08:36:30 PM

Wow... The 4km nam is dropping 2'+ in western KY

Which they also got...last year


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 20, 2016, 08:36:53 PM
Just curious...because I couldn't find it anywhere I looked. What is the timing criteria for a Winter Storm Warning? 36 or 24 hours out?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 08:37:14 PM
The way the 4km NAM resolves QPF/precipitation is beyond my ability to understand. How is this plausible?
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016012100/nam4km_ref_frzn_seus_10.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 08:38:19 PM
Which they also got...last year


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Paducah got 2 storms over 12" last year.  I was just reminded earlier today.  Sheesh.  The rich appear to might be getting richer.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 08:39:03 PM
Just curious...because I couldn't find it anywhere I looked. What is the timing criteria for a Winter Storm Warning? 36 or 24 hours out?

8-36 hours

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/?n=headlines
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 20, 2016, 08:40:22 PM
Just curious...because I couldn't find it anywhere I looked. What is the timing criteria for a Winter Storm Warning? 36 or 24 hours out?

Thought it varied per office for the timing
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 08:41:10 PM
The way the 4km NAM resolves QPF/precipitation is beyond my ability to understand. How is this plausible?
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016012100/nam4km_ref_frzn_seus_10.png)

IMO its not. It fills in the void a couple frames later but Im not buying that frame.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 08:41:42 PM
Don't worry guys. With that big a shift, come the 12z runs  tomorrow this system will give Tulsa a foot! I-44 here we come!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 20, 2016, 08:42:41 PM
This isn't even funny!  Deja Vu


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 20, 2016, 08:42:54 PM
Paducah got 2 storms over 12" last year.  I was just reminded earlier today.  Sheesh.  The rich appear to might be getting richer.

Ohio County got a 13'' with the Presidents Day Storm and 23'' with the March 4th-5th one. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 08:43:23 PM
Thought it varied per office for the timing

Moreso it varies based on confidence. If an office is highly confident...you can issue out to 36 hours. If not...you can basically holdoff until 12 hours or even real-time if it's ongoing (it would be an upgrade from an advisory...in that situation of course)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 20, 2016, 08:43:46 PM
4k NAM on Weatherbell (not sure if it's rendering differently on other sites so I thought I'd share)

(http://models.weatherbell.com/hires/2016012100/memphis/hires_ref_memphis_37.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 08:44:12 PM
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016012100/nam4km_asnow_seus_20.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 20, 2016, 08:45:28 PM
Unreal.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 20, 2016, 08:48:22 PM
So, the 4km cuts Sumner counties totals halfway through the county. Northern sections see 6" while southern sections see an inch at most.

 ::bangingheadintowall:: the SumnerSevereWx page would be fun to follow if that happened!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 20, 2016, 08:48:50 PM
Kevin,

Do you still think we have a high bust porential? What about you Trevor?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 20, 2016, 08:49:40 PM
Although this is a very plausible track, it is also an outlying solution. Need the GFS and euro to get on board until Nashvillians  starts to worry.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 08:50:31 PM
SREF plume mean went down for BNA on the 21z....now this.  Hmm. ::scratch::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 08:50:46 PM
Kevin,

Do you still think we have a high bust porential? What about you Trevor?

I have no idea. Ask me after the GFS lol. I suppose with the NAM N/W and the GFS S/E by definition there remains a great spread and thus...bust potential.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matt on January 20, 2016, 08:50:55 PM
Outlier? Perhaps. If the GFS and subsequently the Euro trend like the NAM, game over.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 20, 2016, 08:52:21 PM
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016012100/nam4km_asnow_seus_20.png)

Just to show the challenges the local NWS offices face look at the gradient shown in the PAH CWA.  Just a 25-30 mile shift could be the difference between a double digit snow and barely reaching an advisory level event according to that run.   Other model runs some significant gradients although not quite that pronounced.  The gradients are absolute nightmares for forecasters.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 20, 2016, 08:53:03 PM
So if everything holds, WSW by morning? Or do you think they'll wait?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 08:54:00 PM
Although this is a very plausible track, it is also an outlying solution. Need the GFS and euro to get on board until Nashvillians  starts to worry.

Clay you nailed it. The real solution might be in the middle somewhere.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 08:54:09 PM
Is not the NAM usually not so great?  Or has it gotten better?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 08:56:04 PM
Is not the NAM usually not so great?  Or has it gotten better?

The NAM is certainly not in the top tier...but we are getting within 48 hours when it starts performing better. But it's just the first model run tonight...the GFS has an entirely different scenario. Have to see what it does tonight.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 08:56:27 PM
Well the EURO is south of GFS.  The NAM is most north?  So the GFS has correct track?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 08:56:38 PM
Is not the NAM usually not so great?  Or has it gotten better?
if there ever was such thing... we are entering the nams deadly zone
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 08:56:55 PM
Is not the NAM usually not so great?  Or has it gotten better?

4k Nam this close has to be taken seriously. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 08:57:10 PM
The NAM is certainly not in the top tier...but we are getting within 48 hours when it starts performing better. But it's just the first model run tonight...the GFS has an entirely different scenario. Have to see what it does tonight.

Thanks
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 08:58:41 PM
4k Nam this close has to be taken seriously.

Hard to take the 4km NAM seriously at least when it isn't capable of properly resolving a deformation axis.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 08:58:52 PM
If I was a betting man , I say the GFS does not change that much and we will really be confused. ::scratch::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on January 20, 2016, 08:59:49 PM
Is not the NAM usually not so great?  Or has it gotten better?
It seems to be good within 48 hours or so at sniffing out trends. Not always, but has been the first to pick up on changes in the short term in times past.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 09:00:27 PM
WPCs surface low track from this afternoon....

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: SuperCell on January 20, 2016, 09:00:37 PM
The most snow I have seen since 2010 is 2 inches. If I get that it will be the best Storm in 5 years.  I am jealous of South Central KY the last few...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 09:00:59 PM
It seems to be good within 48 hours or so at sniffing out trends. Not always, but has been the first to pick up on changes in the short term in times past.

It is worth noting it was that infamous 21z run of the SREF...then the 0z NAM...that started changing the tune on the President's Day storm last year.
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 20, 2016, 09:01:21 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/6838dccf2843d369231696022b401bdf.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 09:01:32 PM
NAM really cut out some snowfall totals in the Mid-Atlantic too
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: memphishogfan on January 20, 2016, 09:01:47 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZNeuHZWkAAZTXl.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 20, 2016, 09:03:18 PM
Oz RGEM, very NAM-ish. Maybe even a little more bullish for Memphis, proper, with a deformation zone setting up along the MS River vs the Arkansas Delta.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 20, 2016, 09:06:07 PM
Been grilling, drinking and taking a break from things and man things have been jumping the last few hours in here. Don't have anything to add, but just want to say I hope everyone on the board cashes in. I know there's a huge boom or bust potential as in any winter weather event, but hopefully we can all get at least a decent snow out of this, whether it's 3-4 inches or a foot plus. I raise my drink to all the contributors and say this one's for yall LOL...Good luck everyone  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::popcorn:: ::yum::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 20, 2016, 09:06:50 PM
The NAM has the vertical resolution to sniff out warm air advection aloft that other models underestimate, however I've seen numerous setups where the NAM shift too far north and doubles back south.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 09:07:29 PM
Been grilling, drinking and taking a break from things and man things have been jumping the last few hours in here. Don't have anything to add, but just want to say I hope everyone on the board cashes in. I know there's a huge boom or bust potential as in any winter weather event, but hopefully we can all get at least a decent snow out of this, whether it's 3-4 inches or a foot plus. I raise my drink to all the contributors and say this one's for yall LOL...Good luck everyone  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::popcorn:: ::yum::
Got the Beer ready Drift!!!! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 20, 2016, 09:08:45 PM
When does the GFS run?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 20, 2016, 09:09:52 PM
Starting in about 30 minutes.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 20, 2016, 09:10:22 PM
The NAM has the vertical resolution to sniff out warm air advection aloft that other models underestimate, however I've seen numerous setups where the NAM shift too far north and doubles back south.
This. The NAM so many times is like, nope, nope, still nope. Then it turns into JKLOL, I'm going back to 3 days ago, y'all are fine.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 09:10:34 PM
one thing is almost for certain.... someone in a 250 mile radius  from Memphis... is going to get plastered... :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 20, 2016, 09:14:56 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/ae88c3fc56db8a8cf892fc0cd77d4f99.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Heath22 on January 20, 2016, 09:21:14 PM
Well it looks like balance has been restored to the universe. Nashville and specifically Southern Middle TN snow screwed, and VU kicking the crap out of UT in hoops.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: SuperCell on January 20, 2016, 09:23:29 PM
Feel like the game is a done deal. I am not ready to give up on the snow chances.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 09:23:44 PM
Well it looks like balance has been restored to the universe. Nashville and specifically Southern Middle TN snow screwed, and VU kicking the crap out of UT in hoops.
were is the dis like button at :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 09:24:57 PM
Oz RGEM, very NAM-ish. Maybe even a little more bullish for Memphis, proper, with a deformation zone setting up along the MS River vs the Arkansas Delta.

I would say so.  ::wow::

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016012100/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_12.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 20, 2016, 09:25:29 PM
And the anticipation builds!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 09:26:33 PM
I would say so.  ::wow::

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016012100/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_12.png)
HOLY HECK  998 slp  thundersnow anyone?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 20, 2016, 09:28:41 PM
HOLY HECK  998 slp  thundersnow anyone?

That would be awesome ::yum::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 20, 2016, 09:35:25 PM
The RGEM and NAM have me concerned for BNA and the southeastern burbs. There is gonna be the tightest of gradients in southeast middle. I'm really nervous were on the wrong side of it.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 20, 2016, 09:35:53 PM
That would be awesome ::yum::

For curiosity how close to Blizzard Warning would we be should something like that verify.  I believe you need 35MPH 3 hour period(not sure if sustained or gusting), and reduced visibility to a quarter of an mile.   I would say the stronger solutions might feature some near blizzard conditions at least locally.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 09:38:34 PM
At 500, GFS looks a lot like NAM through 27 hours.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 09:40:15 PM
At 500, GFS looks a lot like NAM through 27 hours.
yeah looks like its closed already
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 20, 2016, 09:41:49 PM
And AmericanWX has crashed.  ::drowning::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 20, 2016, 09:42:36 PM
Pivotal Weather is slowly crashing...running very slowly. Noticed it on this forum too. WeatherBell also not loading GFS at all for whatever reason.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 09:43:52 PM
The precip field looks to be bigger on the GFS as well.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 20, 2016, 09:44:59 PM
999mb at 9am on the GFS
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 20, 2016, 09:46:16 PM
Surface low looking very NAM-ish.  Deformation band is over KY.

I remember several instances where 48 hours out from an event the American suites went a little goofy but the Euro held steady.  Hopefully, this  idea still holds true.

Everybody S of I-40 gets screwed.  BNA gets a little, CKV gets its usual plastering.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 20, 2016, 09:47:04 PM
4-8" for metro Memphis, depending on where you are on this run of the GFS.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 09:47:39 PM
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_6.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JTM1988 on January 20, 2016, 09:48:30 PM
Looking very very gloomy for BNA.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 09:48:40 PM
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_7.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 09:51:17 PM
Well were going from a WSW to a possible FW to a WWA.  Lol.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 20, 2016, 09:51:49 PM
Can't figure out why it looks so bad for BNA with a 500mb ULL that tracks to our south,700mb low that tracks over Huntsville and a transfer at the base of the apps.  What am I missing?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 09:52:04 PM
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_8.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 09:52:05 PM
The spread of solutions on all these runs is fairly amazing (and drives one to drinking).

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 09:52:24 PM
wow  wonder when meg will go with some winter storm warnings?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 20, 2016, 09:52:52 PM
HOLY HECK  998 slp  thundersnow anyone?

(http://i.imgur.com/gKOvDe2.gif)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: memphishogfan on January 20, 2016, 09:53:23 PM
(http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160121/00Z/f066/acc10_1snowrv.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 20, 2016, 09:54:17 PM
My guess is MEG goes warning in the morning for Arkansas, West TN and NW MS.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 09:55:53 PM
(http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160121/00Z/f066/acc10_1snowrv.png)

Lets cash out with this and go drink beer.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 09:57:22 PM
Lets cash out with this and go drink beer.
I'm all in! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 20, 2016, 09:59:39 PM
Maybe they'll name this one Lobster Claw.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 09:59:56 PM
well  now it the king time soon... he is fixing to finish us all off with the final bomb....Memphis to Nashville epic snowstorm  coming up ::snowman:: good nite friends ::sleeping::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:00:19 PM
Wow just wow
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 10:00:25 PM
(http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160121/00Z/f066/acc10_1snowrv.png)
These gradients...

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 10:01:11 PM
Wow just wow
What are you wowing?

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:02:27 PM
the change from 18z to this. this run is almost identical to the nam, albeit much better for bna.

gradients? im thinking incredible pressure gradients = incredible wind
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 20, 2016, 10:02:57 PM
Hopefully the Euro looks better for Nashville and south. Plenty of time left. Does give me an uneasy feeling though. Seems like Nashville area and southern mid TN has been bypassed by the biggies in all directions the last few years.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 10:06:30 PM
the change from 18z to this. this run is almost identical to the nam, albeit much better for bna.

gradients? im thinking incredible pressure gradients = incredible wind
MEG has already stated (on Facebook) that they will not be issuing a blizzard warning. 



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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 10:07:19 PM
Yeah just a slight tick south would get Nashville into play much better for sure. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 10:08:59 PM
MEG has already stated (on Facebook) that they will not be issuing a blizzard warning. 



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There may need to be some consideration...

[attach=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 10:10:00 PM
Yeah just a slight tick south would get Nashville into play much better for sure. ::fingerscrossed:: :opcorn:: ::snowman::
You see that heavy band up in KY that roughly parallels I40 to the north?   

Move that south and that would be a fitting end to break the back of the snowdome.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:10:04 PM

There may need to be some consideration...

(Attachment Link)

wow gusts up to 45 in the metro, higher in NE AR.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 20, 2016, 10:10:39 PM
The whole transfer of energy to the East Coast is what is giving modeling trouble.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:13:09 PM
people in the northeast corridor have to be having fits now
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 20, 2016, 10:13:46 PM
Spencer Denton of WMCTV is going with 1-3" for MEM metro right now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 10:14:07 PM
There may need to be some consideration...

(Attachment Link)
I agree but that's what was posted.   I certainly understand the not wanting to do so (for obvious reasons). 

The counterbalance is that you don't want a situation where there are people stranded in cars in an actual blizzard (which I'm not sure that any storm on the record would have qualified).

Honestly,  I don't know- just nervously waiting.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 20, 2016, 10:14:19 PM
We're going to get better upper level data probably with the 6z and 12z runs as all offices in TX, and some others in the southern Plains, are releasing special balloons tonight.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 10:15:15 PM
You see that heavy band up in KY that roughly parallels I40 to the north?   

Move that south and that would be a fitting end to break the back of the snowdome.

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Yep I can see that band well being about 5 miles from the state line in Montgomery County. A slight shift south is much more welcome than any more shift north. LOL!!!! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 20, 2016, 10:15:46 PM
00Z cmc at 30 is a little south with the Low vs 00Z Gfs

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2016, 10:16:54 PM
00Z cmc at 30 is a little south with the Low vs 00Z Gfs
More than a little

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 20, 2016, 10:17:19 PM
Well if the Euro trends north tonight then the GFS has a streak going.  I suspect the Euro to trend north.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 20, 2016, 10:19:33 PM
These are been a trend, still very uncertain as we have a tight snow gradient.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 10:20:02 PM
GFS has ran. Waiting on Euro. Now is the time frame that chat is sorely missed.  :(
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 20, 2016, 10:20:29 PM
CMC is very 12z Euro-ish with the location of the heaviest snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 20, 2016, 10:23:23 PM
00Z GEM .... MEM get the shaft on this run... wtf...

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 10:24:12 PM
00z CMC

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012100/gem_asnow_seus_10.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:25:25 PM
cmc finally caved- looks almost like gfs and nam
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 10:26:33 PM
00Z GEM .... MEM get the shaft on this run... wtf...

Not as much as the 12z did...Trends...

[attach=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:28:27 PM
CMC is a solid 4-8 in the metro. It had to play catch up big time
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 20, 2016, 10:29:39 PM
Well it seems like we have a bit more consensus this evening. At least these aren't wildly diverging solutions.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 20, 2016, 10:30:24 PM
Its going to be a nail biter for us here in Davidson County. The gradient is going to be very close, very close.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 20, 2016, 10:33:51 PM
Its going to be a nail biter for us here in Davidson County. The gradient is going to be very close, very close.
I have a feeling you are going to be very right. I hope Nashville is on the right side of this. At least for some decent snowfall. I still like Nashville's chances but very much further east or southeast not so much right now. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 20, 2016, 10:34:38 PM
Spencer Denton of WMCTV is going with 1-3" for MEM metro right now.

(http://www.quickmeme.com/img/c1/c164063673c06376b71f1900529005eec817787066405f4de40788c1d2460058.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 10:34:59 PM
OMG Spencer Denton literally changed his snow accumulation map 3 times during the 10 PM news. Really???
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: aptrumpet on January 20, 2016, 10:35:22 PM
http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 20, 2016, 10:35:30 PM
Boy things have a lot different feel to them over here on the river than they did earlier today. I guess the good news is that it wouldn't take to much of a jog back to the south to restore hope, and even as it stands now we should get a little snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 10:35:57 PM
http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

Chat is not available due to server overload earlier
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:36:29 PM
Kev- not sure if you looked at 10m winds on gfs..... gust past 40mph for 3 frames...meaning well over 3 hours
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 10:37:11 PM
Everyone is waiting...

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 10:37:56 PM
Chat is not available due to server overload earlier

If you click on link it works !!!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 10:38:24 PM
Everyone is waiting...

Hahaha
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Crockett on January 20, 2016, 10:38:40 PM
I saw TVA's forecast earlier today and they're calling for a foot of snow in the Upper Cumberland Plateau (and parts of northern Middle TN). Bold call. I like it.  :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justme37221 on January 20, 2016, 10:39:26 PM
Its going to be a nail biter for us here in Davidson County. The gradient is going to be very close, very close.

Channel 2 would only say 3" plus west of Davidson. Channel 5 says 0.5" for Nashville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 10:39:56 PM
Anybody interested in some Bufkit? (Haven't said that in a while...)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:40:27 PM

Anybody interested in some Bufkit? (Haven't said that in a while...)

spill it
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 20, 2016, 10:40:45 PM
If you click on link it works !!!!!

Sure does..a few of in there now
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 20, 2016, 10:40:55 PM
https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtf1/v/t35.0-12/fr/cp0/e15/q65/12557141_10205732423854300_1658577823_o.jpg?efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&oh=1af1dd3af584e4bcd0d898a3866bc6d9&oe=56A24D65
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2016, 10:41:40 PM
Anybody interested in some Bufkit? (Haven't said that in a while...)

I am but I think a lot went to chat lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 20, 2016, 10:42:56 PM
Anybody interested in some Bufkit? (Haven't said that in a while...) ::coffee::
jonesboro please
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 20, 2016, 10:43:10 PM
https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtf1/v/t35.0-12/fr/cp0/e15/q65/12557141_10205732423854300_1658577823_o.jpg?efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&oh=1af1dd3af584e4bcd0d898a3866bc6d9&oe=56A24D65
That's not funny..  ::shaking_finger::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Heath22 on January 20, 2016, 10:44:05 PM
https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtf1/v/t35.0-12/fr/cp0/e15/q65/12557141_10205732423854300_1658577823_o.jpg?efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&oh=1af1dd3af584e4bcd0d898a3866bc6d9&oe=56A24D65

WOW, thats the snowdome on PED's.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cbrentv3 on January 20, 2016, 10:45:03 PM

Anybody interested in some Bufkit? (Haven't said that in a while...)
Murfreesboro please


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Crockett on January 20, 2016, 10:45:42 PM
https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtf1/v/t35.0-12/fr/cp0/e15/q65/12557141_10205732423854300_1658577823_o.jpg?efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&oh=1af1dd3af584e4bcd0d898a3866bc6d9&oe=56A24D65

Pretty sure posting clown maps like that could get a person banned around here right now.  :D
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 20, 2016, 10:45:47 PM
(http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/16/01/20/e57d57aaeb9491daf0534536ba607841.jpg)(http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/16/01/20/907f9f6dac7c855ccafcb34e5cb615f7.jpg)(http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/16/01/20/96d0782bc233e5ac5b75eb9a90a11bdb.jpg)(http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/16/01/20/558de08ddd1a4da805fc6152b4b4884b.jpg)


surface wind gusts during the snow hours for memphis metro
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: rbowman on January 20, 2016, 10:53:46 PM
I am going to kill time till 0z suits by watching Tennessee kick vandy butt in basketball 8 clock ::rofl::
How did that work out for you?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 20, 2016, 10:54:33 PM
There is honestly barely any difference between the 0z GFS and the 12z Euro from a surface perspective. Euro seems to be catching onto the dynamic cooling where the GFS and NAM are not. The dynamic cooling may not happen, and the Euro might be wrong. But I don't know that BNA needs a further south track as much as we need this thing to create some cold air like the euro is showing.

Crossing my fingers before I try to sleep. Can't stay up for the Euro. Got a breakfast meeting at 8:15.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 10:57:39 PM
12km NAM Bufkit

MEM... 4.5" SN - Max sustained wind 18kts
JBR... .49" ZR .2" IP 1.6" SN - Max sustained wind 20kts
Between LIT and MEM... 4.3" SN - Max sustained wind 19kts
MKL... 1.8" SN - Max sustained wind 20kts
BNA... 3.2" SN - Max sustained wind 14kts
CKV... 5.2" SN - Max sustained wind 18kts

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 20, 2016, 10:59:22 PM
12km NAM Bufkit

MEM... 4.5" SN - Max sustained wind 18kts
JBR... .49" ZR .2" IP 1.6" SN - Max sustained wind 20kts
Between LIT and MEM... 4.3" SN - Max sustained wind 19kts
MKL... 1.8" SN - Max sustained wind 20kts
BNA... 3.2" SN - Max sustained wind 14kts
CKV... 5.2" SN - Max sustained wind 18kts
really :-\ thanks still bud
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Heath22 on January 20, 2016, 10:59:51 PM
So this is a Miller B right? What makes the energy transfer instead of the first low staying intact?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 20, 2016, 11:04:01 PM
From the NWS Glossary

Quote
A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer:
Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and
Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than mile)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 11:08:37 PM
GFS Bufkit

MEM... 6.3" SN - Max sustained wind 28kts
JBR... .39" ZR 7.0" SN - Max sustained wind 31kts
Between LIT and MEM... .07" ZR 6.4" SN - Max sustained wind 27kts
MKL... 2.7" SN - Max sustained wind 21kts
BNA... 1.8" SN - Max sustained wind 11kts
CKV... 11.2" SN - Max sustained wind 13kts
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 20, 2016, 11:25:49 PM
00z GEFS members look vastly...vastly improved vs the 12 and 18z...
(http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/2016012100/ky/gefs_snow_ens_ky_17.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 20, 2016, 11:42:53 PM
Euro is rollin'.. updates coming in shortly.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 20, 2016, 11:52:33 PM
Meanwhile... the SPC has an Enhanced Risk across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwest Alabama. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1453355492803
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: memphishogfan on January 21, 2016, 12:02:34 AM
Am I seeing this right, is the Euro throwing the low out to the east coast.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Cody on January 21, 2016, 12:02:48 AM
Patiently waiting.......


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 21, 2016, 12:06:30 AM
Coastal transfer happens a bit more quickly on the Euro versus the GFS. This may be a more favorable run for Middle TN snow wise.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 12:11:26 AM
0z Euro pretty much holds serve with the 12z. Heaviest axis of precip from roughly Marks, MS to roughly Clarksville, TN. Memphis cashes in for 4-8" (W to E) and Nashville is progged for 7".
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 21, 2016, 12:12:48 AM
0z Euro pretty much holds serve with the 12z. Heaviest axis of precip from roughly Marks, MS to roughly Clarksville, TN. Memphis cashes in for 4-8" (W to E) and Nashville is progged for 7".
Sounds like a winner to me! 

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 21, 2016, 12:13:37 AM
Big swath of snow along the 40 corridor from BNA west.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 21, 2016, 12:15:37 AM
Big swath of snow along the 40 corridor from BNA west.
Widespread 4-8"?

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 21, 2016, 12:19:37 AM
Widespread 4-8"?

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If you drew a cone from Eastern Shelby County to Land Between the Lakes, and BNA. That's roughly where 8" plus inches falls at 10:1.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 21, 2016, 12:20:26 AM
If you drew a cone from Eastern Shelby County to Land Between the Lakes, and BNA. That's roughly where 7" plus inches falls at 10:1.
Very nice!

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: paderryb on January 21, 2016, 12:26:55 AM
I think I live under a warm bubble. Last year there was 4 inches of snow just 7 miles from my house and I got a dusting. It seems to always miss me by a hair.  :'(
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 21, 2016, 12:32:02 AM
Obviously any 10:1 clown map is not going take into account ground conditions. With that scenario, you can probably take 3/4 of that total to get the realistic number.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 12:36:18 AM
Do you honestly believe 10:1 will occur here?  I was thinking maybe 8:1 at least at 1st.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on January 21, 2016, 12:40:58 AM
I'm curious when MEG will issue WSW. Their confidence should be high especially after tonight's 0Z runs.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 12:45:04 AM
I'm curious when MEG will issue WSW. Their confidence should be high especially after tonight's 0Z runs.

Almost certainly with the AM package
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 12:45:36 AM
I think I live under a warm bubble. Last year there was 4 inches of snow just 7 miles from my house and I got a dusting. It seems to always miss me by a hair.  :'(

If euro model verifies I think you could see at least a couple of inches
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 02:31:12 AM
6z NAM continues the idea of a very sharp gradient across middle TN. This will be a feast or famine snowstorm it seems (which has been the idea all along, we just didn't know where that gradient would set up)
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 21, 2016, 02:57:42 AM
Almost certainly with the AM package
After sleeping for a bit,  I have to say I will be a little disappointed if they don't go with the blizzard warning:

 1) I do think it's a good call to go with (considering guidance)  and

 2) how many times are we ever going to be in this position again?





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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 02:59:04 AM
Looks as if LZK is sticking with this in their updated grids this morning.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 03:15:03 AM
After sleeping for a bit,  I have to say I will be a little disappointed if they don't go with the blizzard warning:

 1) I do think it's a good call to go with (considering guidance)  and

 2) how many times are we ever going to be in this position again?





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I don't know why I'm still awake first of all lol...

But if worst came to worst you can always upgrade. That actually almost happened in March 2008. Yes there are signals especially on the GFS that wind gusts could near criteria but its such a gutsy call to make honestly.

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 03:24:54 AM
LMK has upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. Calling for 3-6" for their counties bordering TN and 10-14" for their central counties.

They also mention the risk of 30-35 mph wind gusts and blowing snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 03:26:48 AM
Thunderstorms with freezing rain in Little Rock....look at the lightning!

[attach=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 21, 2016, 03:47:12 AM
I don't know why I'm still awake first of all lol...

But if worst came to worst you can always upgrade. That actually almost happened in March 2008. Yes there are signals especially on the GFS that wind gusts could near criteria but its such a gutsy call to make honestly.
I agree that it is a gutsy call and I honestly don't know if I could do it but:

1) It is (arguably) the right call

2) It will likely keep a lot of people off the roads and this will likely save lives if a blizzard does verify. Case in point,  we will have people at the office in a winter storm but a blizzard will almost assuredly keep people at home.   This is the culture a lot of places and there is an unwritten code so people feel compelled to venture out to go to work even if they don't think it's a good idea. 

As you said -  a very gutsy call and it will take a courageous individual or group of individuals to make it.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 03:55:54 AM
6z GFS pretty much holds serve. It looks to be a touch south from the 0z run, but not by much. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles say. I expect a few of them to be further south too.

When dealing with snow, a 25-50 mile shift in either direction can have huge implications for someone. So while it may not look like a big change from one run to the next, it is important to note any changes.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 21, 2016, 04:07:01 AM
6z GFS:

(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/024345b25730c5d51c605167bb40f895.jpg)

(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/b2a76f730ab35dcf3399f92f448d2945.jpg)

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 21, 2016, 04:08:31 AM
WPC siding with the Euro for the 0z suite,  citing initialization errors and poor handling of the stream regarding the GFS &  NAM.   

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 04:09:52 AM

A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF
THE MID-SOUTH WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COMBINING TO
PRODUCE NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DELTA REGION
OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 04:11:48 AM
Winter Storm Warnings now out for parts of middle TN.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TNZ008&warncounty=TNC165&firewxzone=TNZ501&local_place1=3%20Miles%20NNE%20Westmoreland%20TN&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=36.6008&lon=-86.2258#.VqCuZGBMFDs
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 04:13:28 AM
MEG...

Quote
A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF 
THE MID-SOUTH WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COMBINING TO 
PRODUCE NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DELTA REGION 
OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL 
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IF NOT 
IMPOSSIBLE BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... 
 
WHILE MODELS ARE NOT FULLY IN AGREEMENT...ENOUGH OF A CONSENSUS 
EXISTS TO UPGRADE MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH TO A WINTER STORM 
WARNING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH-END POTENTIAL APPARENT IN THIS 
EVENT. DETAILS ARE DISCUSSED BELOW: 
 
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DEPICTS A STRONG 
SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH WAVE-BREAK VERY NEAR THE MID-SOUTH WITH A 
SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MS. 
THIS IS A CLASSIC TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE MID-SOUTH. IN 
FACT...THE 4TH CLOSEST ANALOG TO THIS EVENT IS THE CHRISTMAS 
BLIZZARD OF 2012 WITH A NUMBER OF SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE TWO 
EVENTS APPARENT. 
 
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS LOUSIANA WITH THE 
LOW TRACKING ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING 
AS IT INTENSIFIES. PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NIGHT AS PARCELS ARE RAPIDLY FORCED UP A 
SLOPING FRONTAL SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RESERVOIR OF 
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH SUGGESTS THE 
VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 
THUNDER AS THE PRECIP EXPANDS NORTH. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION 
AS TO HOW THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL EVOLVE. AT THIS 
TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MIXED WITH 
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BEFORE 
MIDNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF THE FREEZING LINE FROM 
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FOR AREAS NEARER TO THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO...IT APPEARS 
THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS A WARM NOSE OF 
2-4 LOCATED NEAR 850 MB WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE. THE BEST 
TIME FRAME FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE FROM 3 AM TO 6 AM 
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR 
AROUND 6 AM FOR AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 
 
THE PERIOD BETWEEN 6 AM AND 3 PM ON FRIDAY IS OF MOST CONCERN. 
THIS IS THE TIMEFRAME WHEN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND 
COMMERCE ARE EXPECTED WITH TRAVEL POTENTIALLY BECOMING 
IMPOSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS ACROSS THE DELTA. WHILE 
TOTAL QPF VALUES OUTPUT BY MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY 
IMPRESSIVE...PATTERN RECOGNITION ALONG WITH MESOSCALE PROCESSESS 
SUGGEST THAT A HEAVY BANDED SNOWFALL EVENT WILL UNFOLD. CROSS 
SECTIONS TAKEN PERPENDICULAR TO THE DEFORMATION SHOW CLASSIC 
INDICATIONS THAT CONVECTIVE/THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE.
BY 12Z...A 
STRONG DRY SLOT WRAPS INTO THE CYCLONE WHICH STEEPENS AND FOLDS 
THETA SURFACES JUST SOUTHEAST OF MEMPHIS. UPRIGHT INSTABILITY IS 
EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH 
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED STATIC STABILITY FURTHER NORTHWEST WITHIN 
THE DEVELOPING TROWAL AIR STREAM. IF THIS WERE TO MATERIALIZE AS 
FORECAST...SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE 
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS.
THE OTHER METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLE POINTING TO 
A HIGH-END EVENT IN TERMS OF IMPACTS IS THE WINDS. 925 MB ARE 
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KTS ORIENTED FAVORABLY THROUGH THE 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. MOMEMTUM TRANSFER TOOLS YIELD WIND GUSTS 
FREQUENTLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BLIZZARD HEADLINES 
WERE CONSIDERED GIVEN THE EXPECTED PROLONGED VISIBILITY 
REDUCTIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE SIMPLY ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS 
EVOLUTION.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AT THIS POINT IS 
SEMANTICS...AND THE TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT REGARDLESS OF THE 
HEADLINE...THIS EVENT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY BY ALL PARTIES. 
 
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP EAST WITH 
NEW CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LIGHT TO 
MODERATE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING DEFORMATION BAND IS 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE. 
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT IT 
IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED. 
REGARDLESS...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MESOSCALE BANDING ARE ANTICIPATED.   

THIS EVENT SHOULD WIND DOWN IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD BUT 
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 04:18:20 AM
OMG at this new zone forecast for Shelby...

Quote
TONIGHT...WINDY. RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SNOW...SLEET AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SUNRISE. 
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 
30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY INCREASING TO NORTH 
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
   
FRIDAY...WINDY. SNOW AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE 
MORNING...THEN SNOW IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW 
ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 5 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 5 TO 
7 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH 
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.   

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. CLOUDY IN THE 
EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH DECREASING TO 
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 21, 2016, 04:19:30 AM
OMG at this new zone forecast for Shelby...
Just awesome!

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 21, 2016, 04:21:11 AM
MEG...
Question:  do they upgrade if modeling continues to support blizzard conditions or does this mean they are closing the door on it for good?

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 04:25:55 AM
OMG at this new zone forecast for Shelby...

Same for me in Desoto!  ::snowman:: ::flag::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 04:28:25 AM
Question:  do they upgrade if modeling continues to support blizzard conditions or does this mean they are closing the door on it for good?

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I would say the door is open for an upgrade but it would probably be a nowcast decision....
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 04:29:02 AM
Question:  do they upgrade if modeling continues to support blizzard conditions or does this mean they are closing the door on it for good?

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IMO, if it looks like the system is evolving where gusts of over 35 mph looks possible for a wide area, I think they have to go with the Blizzard Warning.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 04:30:41 AM
ROFL at this point forecast...

Friday Snow. Some thunder is also possible. Temperature falling to around 30 by 5pm. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 04:32:40 AM
Todd Demers on WREG just started the show with "When was the last time you were in a blizzard?  This is what tomorrow is shaping up to be".
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 04:40:38 AM
Winter Storm Warnings now out from MEG
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 04:44:27 AM
OHX has snow and freezing rain in zone forecasts even after 3PM tomorrow... is there a residual warm layer we need to worry about?  Hopefully 850s will crash fast enough to preclude ZR.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on January 21, 2016, 04:47:41 AM
Southern Mid TN screwed again as usual.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bluegrasspr on January 21, 2016, 04:54:36 AM
What about Knoxville, please? My daughter's birthday party is scheduled for Saturday with some out of town family traveling - what is the latest modeling saying for our area, please?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 05:02:23 AM
What about Knoxville, please? My daughter's birthday party is scheduled for Saturday with some out of town family traveling - what is the latest modeling saying for our area, please?

MRX is calling for up to 3" for Knoxville. These totals could change, so keep up with the latest! :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 05:17:14 AM
Same areas that got 12+" in the big storm last year are in the 10-14" zone for this one. Sigh. Not fair.

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: jbeasley10 on January 21, 2016, 05:19:15 AM
Any chance BNA will have a blizzard warning?   I don't think we have ever had one here.  That would be interesting
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 05:39:19 AM
My 1st call map. I will post my 2nd, and final, map later this evening.



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 05:54:21 AM
Southern Mid TN screwed again as usual.
Been a rough couple of years in southern middle TN for sure. Though, I think missing twice to AL last year was way worse. I used to feel superior towards the Nashville snow dome area, but I think its spread south.  ;D
I want the 12Z Euro and 18Z NAM look back from yesterday. Still some time and lots of winter left. ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 05:58:28 AM
ABC 24 making new fans in middle TN, not so many fans in their own DMA though. hahaha



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cliftown04 on January 21, 2016, 06:05:25 AM
Pretty amazing how the models have had a similar solution for days.  Where the bullseye will be who knows. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Chipper31 on January 21, 2016, 06:11:07 AM
ABC 24 making new fans in middle TN, not so many fans in their own DMA though. hahaha

Proof that once we start drawing outside of our own county borders, we stop caring TOO much about accuracy.  I try not to fall into that trap, but it's a struggle...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 06:20:58 AM
Nashvillians better hope that the Euro has the right idea. Otherwise I think we end up with little to nothing. If we can't get a full changeover with high rates, we are going to have a lot of melting.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 06:33:04 AM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/db0659b427390b267a5cb742d254445f.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 06:45:51 AM
Well, at least we still have the Euro here in middle TN.  Wow, what a change in 12 hours. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 06:50:45 AM
Nashvillians better hope that the Euro has the right idea. Otherwise I think we end up with little to nothing. If we can't get a full changeover with high rates, we are going to have a lot of melting.
Agreed. I think backside snow showers late tomorrow are a given. But they are not going to yield significant accumulations. We need a changeover with at least some good dynamics in place.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 21, 2016, 07:00:12 AM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image16.gif)

Well, for me, this graphic isn't too much different than the one they posted the other day except the amounts varied from 1.5 to 2.5 inches of snow. I got neither amounts. I did, however, receive the promised .10 inch of ice. I didn't really measure, but it appeared to be so, and a sleet dusting.

What is my take from all this? I fully expect a good COLD rain, another coating of ice, a coating of sleet, and an obligatory dusting of snow to cover it all.

If I get more, I'll be overjoyed.  'sigh'
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cgauxknox on January 21, 2016, 07:07:14 AM
[attachimg=1]

The valley in East TN looks to get just enough to tease us but people at elevation may cash in on the Friday/Saturday system.  Just the smallest shifts and we're looking at some big accumulations, but that seems to be the case statewide.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 21, 2016, 07:13:05 AM
I'm still holding out hope that we will see a last minute change in models like we've seen before. Other wise we'll hope to see a backside inch or two. Would like to see the winter storm warning verify down this way, but I'm not optimistic.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on January 21, 2016, 07:24:01 AM
(Attachment Link)

The valley in East TN looks to get just enough to tease us but people at elevation may cash in on the Friday/Saturday system.  Just the smallest shifts and we're looking at some big accumulations, but that seems to be the case statewide.

The far northeast corner, near the Tri-Cites, is the place to be for this one.  Mountain City will be the big winner in TN, I would imagine. (If a freakish dry-slot doesn't steal from them as a few models have shown). 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 07:34:49 AM
One day I will learn to not fall into this disappointment.
I really enjoyed Dec.  comfortable & short sleeves.  You knew  there was no chance of snow & did not even think about it.  The GFS is on a streak.  Funny how times have changed for winters here.  Heck even our local mets are different from NOAA in their forecast.  What they show barely would warrant a WWA.  Heck Ron has 0 for this area.  Sad that he is right again it would appear.  I watch 2 & 4.  I keep hoping one day a miracle will happen for Nash-Boro. That hope is just about totally gone.  Sigh.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 07:38:18 AM
There's a SVR warning down in Louisiana near the MS line.  So, there is still that aspect of this system to watch with an Enhanced risk on the Gulf coast


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 21, 2016, 07:39:19 AM
Looks like the typical winter we have had in the last few years. I think we get a dusting at best with temps staying above freezing for most of the event. LOTS OF COLD RAIN!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 07:40:38 AM
Guys, the event hasn't even started yet. No reason for all of this doom and gloom. The EURO is still in our camp. That is a great model to have in your corner.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Andy on January 21, 2016, 07:41:20 AM
My area in East Tn is forecast for around 8-12 inches. However we currently have 6+ on the ground. MRX does mention dry slotting , which may hold accumulation down. These is an incredibly dynamic system!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 07:41:24 AM
One day I will learn to not fall into this disappointment.
I really enjoyed Dec.  comfortable & short sleeves.  You knew  there was no chance of snow & did not even think about it.  The GFS is on a streak.  Funny how times have changed for winters here.  Heck even our local mets are different from NOAA in their forecast.  What they show barely would warrant a WWA.  Heck Ron has 0 for this area.  Sad that he is right again it would appear.  I watch 2 & 4.  I keep hoping one day a miracle will happen for Nash-Boro. That hope is just about totally gone.  Sigh.

If Ron Howe is saying Nashville will get nothing, he is being irresponsible at this juncture. Could it happen? Absolutely. But a 50 mile shift could mean significant accumulations and most models are eventually giving us a couple inches once the low pressure transfers. I don't have any kind words for that kind of Dave Brown forecasting.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mmk3742 on January 21, 2016, 07:48:29 AM
It figures we might finally get a decent snow when I am scheduled (and paid for my ticket already) to run in the zoo run run 5k Saturday.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 21, 2016, 07:51:02 AM
There's a SVR warning down in Louisiana near the MS line.  So, there is still that aspect of this system to watch with an Enhanced risk on the Gulf coast


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I was reading the OHX AFD and they said we had the possibility of hearing some thunder tonight so there is some potent energy with this system.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 07:52:33 AM
12z NAM is a hair south at 14 hours...still not all that different at 500mb than the 00z.

Also a little more positive tilt, may help it not wrap up as fast...we shall see.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2016, 07:56:50 AM
And it begins... Thunder sleet reported at little rock...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 07:57:03 AM
12z NAM H19 looks a bit more concentric at the surface than the 6z. 

WAA not nearly as evident on the 12z....

12z NAM much colder at the surface than 6z.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 07:58:25 AM
RobertWx, throwing out some hope...lol

Robert at Wxsouth hasn't changed his tune about the south track and all, and just posted thisL
The beginning of the storm is within the short range model's view now . Here is hour 18 (valid tonight). A powerful digging impluse phases into a developing cutoff in Louisiana. This will roll eastward tomorrow through MS, AL, GA and then the Carolinas, reaching the East Coast Saturday afternoon.
Blocking confluent stream in the far Northeast US will keep on forcing the main low in the South to cut more east than north. This has been fooling a lot of forecasters, as each time the models "think" the low will pull into Tennessee, they recognize the strength of the Northern Stream and the storm down south is forced to redevelop and cut more eastward, across Georgia into South Carolina late Friday night.
Growing signs of that deformation backside snow band to get northern Alabama, northern Georgia overnight, where I have more snow than all models,
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 07:59:52 AM
Better run for BNA thus far...ull and 700mb low further south
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 08:00:03 AM
Surface low stronger on the 12z (1004mb -> 1006mb on the 6z)..
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 08:00:47 AM
Changeover happening quicker to the NW on the 12z...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 08:01:29 AM
This is what we want to see.....should put deform band much closer to bna

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2016012112&var=ABSV&lev=700mb&hour=025 (http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2016012112&var=ABSV&lev=700mb&hour=025)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2016, 08:01:52 AM
Significant changes on 12z nam word is
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 08:02:25 AM
H25, MEM, MKL, CKV have all changed over.  That's 7am.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 08:03:52 AM
Surface low is maybe 50 miles further S compared to the 6z iteration.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 21, 2016, 08:04:26 AM
This is what we want to see.....should put deform band much closer to bna

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2016012112&var=ABSV&lev=700mb&hour=025 (http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2016012112&var=ABSV&lev=700mb&hour=025)

Looks like a Blizzarcane   ::lookaround::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 08:04:45 AM
Definitely colder. Helps the surface low isn't in far NW AL.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 08:04:51 AM
10am, MEM is getting blizzard'd.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 08:06:20 AM
T850s look MUCH better on the 12z than the 6z NAM.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 08:06:48 AM
11am, it's pouring snow in BNA.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 08:07:04 AM
MUCH BETTER RUN!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 08:07:38 AM
Wow, excellent look.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 08:07:49 AM
Bring it home!  Please!  Thanks for PBP!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 21, 2016, 08:09:45 AM
Positive step this morning. Good to see 12z nam moving in the right direction here in the short term.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 08:10:27 AM
I'll take that run of the 12z NAM all day, every day. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 08:10:38 AM
Wow, excellent look.

NAM, DON'T YOU DO IT!! BNA would be getting pounded in that frame.  Please let this be true.  LOL.   ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 08:10:52 AM
12z NAM keeps me frozen for the whole event but mostly sleet.  ::wow::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2016, 08:11:43 AM
Congrats Nashville.  Let's do this
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 08:12:54 AM
These clown maps should be fun to see!

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 08:13:47 AM
4k NAM will be interesting to see, but confidence just got a huge increase. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 08:15:58 AM
Hey Ron Howes...how you liking that NAM run? 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cbrentv3 on January 21, 2016, 08:17:06 AM

These clown maps should be fun to see!
that low is much further south. That is good.  Hope it is true. 


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 08:18:32 AM
Still snowing at this timeframe too, for all of middle TN.



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 08:19:51 AM
Low further south and a tad stronger on 12z NAM 4k vs its' 00z run. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 08:20:14 AM
It looks to be near impossible for this one to make everyone happy. The 12z 4k NAM taken verbatim has the deform band as sleet for west Tn during the heavy stuff and turns to a little snow on the end.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 08:23:23 AM
Roughly the 4k shows the transfer from Huntsville to Macon.  Very dynamic situation with high bust potential...but I like the set-up. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2016, 08:24:31 AM
It looks to be near impossible for this one to make everyone happy. The 12z 4k NAM taken verbatim has the deform band as sleet for west Tn during the heavy stuff and turns to a little snow on the end.
sleet won't be
Much issue dyer. 850s crashing to fast mostly snow
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 08:25:30 AM
It looks to be near impossible for this one to make everyone happy. The 12z 4k NAM taken verbatim has the deform band as sleet for west Tn during the heavy stuff and turns to a little snow on the end.

Soundings don't jive with that at all...I wouldn't worry...

(http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_NAM_024_KMEM_winter_sfc.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 08:30:34 AM
BEAST of a deformation zone at MEM on the 4k nam. show as snow not sleeet. near blizzard conditions
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 08:34:24 AM
Assuming the 12z GFS follows suit...I think we're coming to a pretty strong consensus in the main thrust of the deformation axis setting up along the S/E half of the MEM metro...much like the Euro. Appears to go gangbusters in the 12z to 15z timeframe with heaviest snowfall rates. That's slightly earlier than previous runs (by about 3 hours)....
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 08:35:20 AM
4km NAM gets my area to 33F at 9 AM and that is as high as we go. If temps turn out to be colder than modeled...watch out.

Pretty sure it tops Nashville out around 34F. Close, close call guys.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 08:37:50 AM
4km NAM gets my area to 33F at 9 AM and that is as high as we go. If temps turn out to be colder than modeled...watch out.

Pretty sure it tops Nashville out around 34F. Close, close call guys.

Any info for the Boro?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 08:41:33 AM
Any info for the Boro?

Looking at the 12km snow total map, it gives Rutherford County anywhere from 1-3". On this run there is still a sharp drop off in accumulation SE of Nashville, but there was a definite move SE with the biggest snows.

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 08:44:12 AM
Looking at the 12km snow total map, it gives Rutherford County anywhere from 1-3". On this run there is still a sharp drop off in accumulation SE of Nashville, but there was a definite move SE with the biggest snows.

Thank You
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 21, 2016, 08:45:10 AM
http://www.weather.gov/pah/hazardous_weather_snow

http://w2.weather.gov/media/lmk/briefing/Jan19_2016/Jan21_2016_4AM.pdf


^^ Quite the difference in snow thoughts here between PAH and LMK ^^ 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 21, 2016, 08:45:25 AM
Any info for the Boro?

As Frank Drebin would say, "Move along, there's nothing to see here."   :police:

(https://meirinthemiddle.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/nothing-to-see-here.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 08:49:07 AM
I like where the WPC's head is at...

(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif)
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 08:52:53 AM
MEG beefing up thundersnow- thoughts? Seen this forecasted before but not materialize except once when NOT forecasted.

Christmas Blizzard 2012 for Arkansas had lots of thundersnow

http://youtu.be/aC3KELKoKWw
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 08:55:01 AM
Soundings don't jive with that at all...I wouldn't worry...

(http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_NAM_024_KMEM_winter_sfc.png)

Thats why I put the verbatim in there. I was not buying.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 08:56:30 AM
One thought on the ground temps worries, I still have some pack here my ground is still covered. Even if it warms up today to a whopping 38 like my high is projected, I just can't see it taking too long to stick. My point is the ground cannot be that warm, and I just can't see it being a huge factor in snow totals, but just watch me be wrong.LOL! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 21, 2016, 08:57:36 AM
Lots of redbull gonna be needed tonight..
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 08:58:01 AM
MEG beefing up thundersnow- thoughts? Seen this forecasted before but not materialize except once when NOT forecasted.

The forecaster wrote MEG's AFD this morning posted this cross section analysis from the 6z NAM (that was referenced in the AFD). This is a classic slantwise convection setup that produces thundersnow under 500mb deformation axes.

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/690169616233013248

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZP5m8xUkAA4UuI.jpg)

Does have to verify of course. But all the modeled dynamical indicators suggest thunder would be a high probability. This isn't your average synoptic-scale snowstorm setup.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 08:58:56 AM
As Frank Drebin would say, "Move along, there's nothing to see here."   :police:

(https://meirinthemiddle.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/nothing-to-see-here.jpg)

Hopefully Servo we in the Boro can get in on some of the heavy snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 08:59:58 AM
The forecaster wrote MEG's AFD this morning posted this cross section analysis from the 6z NAM (that was referenced in the AFD). This is a classic slantwise convection setup that produces thundersnow under 500mb deformation axes.

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/690169616233013248

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZP5m8xUkAA4UuI.jpg)

Does have to verify of course. But all the modeled dynamical indicators suggest thunder would be a high probability. This isn't your average synoptic-scale snowstorm setup.

Storm chasing in a blizzard.  ::guitar::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 09:01:11 AM
One thought on the ground temps worries, I still have some pack here my ground is still covered. Even if it warms up today to a whopping 38 like my high is projected, I just can't see it taking too long to stick. My point is the ground cannot be that warm, and I just can't see it being a huge factor in snow totals, but just watch me be wrong.LOL! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Agree.  Even here in Smyrna.  I still have a dusting on snow in grassy areas.  A dusting I would have thought would have melted by now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 09:02:45 AM

The forecaster wrote MEG's AFD this morning posted this cross section analysis from the 6z NAM (that was referenced in the AFD). This is a classic slantwise convection setup that produces thundersnow under 500mb deformation axes.

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/690169616233013248

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZP5m8xUkAA4UuI.jpg)

Does have to verify of course. But all the modeled dynamical indicators suggest thunder would be a high probability. This isn't your average synoptic-scale snowstorm setup.

TSSN can up accums significantly. Good read man
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 09:03:53 AM
We are supposed to get to 35 today. We have not been above freezing since Sunday.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 09:04:34 AM
If those temps can crash just a few more degrees.  This whole area from Boro/Nash to Memphis could have a one heck of a winter storm.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 09:05:58 AM
The forecaster wrote MEG's AFD this morning posted this cross section analysis from the 6z NAM (that was referenced in the AFD). This is a classic slantwise convection setup that produces thundersnow under 500mb deformation axes.

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/690169616233013248

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZP5m8xUkAA4UuI.jpg)

Does have to verify of course. But all the modeled dynamical indicators suggest thunder would be a high probability. This isn't your average synoptic-scale snowstorm setup.


I stayed up reading papers on slantwise convection waiting for the AFD this morning lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 09:08:23 AM


I stayed up reading papers on slantwise convection waiting for the AFD this morning lol

Leisurely reading eh?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 09:09:04 AM

I stayed up reading papers on slantwise convection waiting for the AFD this morning lol

Ha! You were well prepared then  ;D
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BigPeter on January 21, 2016, 09:09:47 AM
If this ends up busting, I may just cry.   :'(
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 21, 2016, 09:11:56 AM
What time BUFKIT come in for nam?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Crockett on January 21, 2016, 09:12:57 AM
Can't enjoy the current snow because I have to be at the office.

Can't focus at the office because I'm hanging on every model run, every clown map and every TNWX post about the next snow.

The life of a weather weenie...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 09:15:00 AM
I am being totally honest when I say I like trends this morning. I so much want the I40 corridor buried. Been a long time coming.  ::snowman:: ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 09:19:40 AM
Well I feel we are 1 for 1 so far on model runs going in right direction.  Let us hope that the GFS follows & gives us snow weenies even more love.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 09:20:38 AM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/8087622fa789d2cd7addf22bdd89a726.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 21, 2016, 09:22:43 AM
Why is Memphis not under a wsw and I am? Says no accumulations for my area per weather channel and 3-5 for Memphis. My guess is this thing is going to shift 50 miles north or south and these totals for areas will change a lot in the next 24 hours. Seems like that happens every time. Fingers crossed is shifts south this time.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 09:23:52 AM
Why is Memphis not under a wsw and I am? Says no accumulations for my area per weather channel and 3-5 for Memphis. My guess is this thing is going to shift 50 miles north or south and these totals for areas will change a lot in the next 24 hours. Seems like that happens every time. Fingers crossed is shifts south this time.

Ummm Memphis is under a WSW?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: spanarkle on January 21, 2016, 09:25:56 AM
Basketball game tonight. Any idea on the timing of this??? Carroll Co.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 09:27:06 AM
Any bet takers on if any MEG counties get put under some type of blizzard warning? Seems like we might meet the criteria
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 21, 2016, 09:27:18 AM
Basketball game tonight. Any idea on the timing of this??? Carroll Co.

Shouldn't be any worries tonight.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 09:27:30 AM
12z NAM Bufkit totals...

MEM 6.7" (minor sleet)
JBR 1.3" (minor sleet/ 1/4" ZR)
MKL 4.6" (minor sleet)
BNA 1.2" (keep in mind there is a very sharp gradient N/W of the airport locale)
CKV 9.6" (minor sleet/ 1/2" ZR)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 09:27:57 AM
Basketball game tonight. Any idea on the timing of this??? Carroll Co.

Game tonight will be fine.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: utvols235 on January 21, 2016, 09:28:29 AM
Knoxville. Getting the shaft this time around
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 09:28:33 AM

Any bet takers on if any MEG counties get put under some type of blizzard warning? Seems like we might meet the criteria

Good grief if Crittenden Co got a blizzard warning in 2012 can't see why not someone this time.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 09:29:55 AM
On second look those BNA numbers look way off actually. Not sure what happened to the algorithm there...has very low ratios and extended period of RASN (which it doesn't accumulate and not sure is accurate)

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 09:31:13 AM
Any bet takers on if any MEG counties get put under some type of blizzard warning? Seems like we might meet the criteria

If it didn't happen this morning my guess is it won't unless it's a nowcast decision as something is unfolding. This morning was the forecast team that would have pulled the trigger...in fact one of them was the same person who pulled the trigger on the 2012 BZW.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 09:39:12 AM
12z GFS looks very much like the 12z NAM.  A hair colder than it's predecessor.  T850s crash sooner.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 09:40:02 AM
On second look those BNA numbers look way off actually. Not sure what happened to the algorithm there...has very low ratios and extended period of RASN (which it doesn't accumulate and not sure is accurate)

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 09:31:13 AM
If it didn't happen this morning my guess is it won't unless it's a nowcast decision as something is unfolding. This morning was the forecast team that would have pulled the trigger...in fact one of them was the same person who pulled the trigger on the 2012 BZW.

How far in advance did they issue the famous Crittenden  county BZW? I know that has little to no bearing on this system or when they might pull the trigger, just wondering.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 09:41:00 AM

How far in advance did they issue the famous Crittenden  county BZW? I know that has little to no bearing on this system or when they might pull the trigger, just wondering.

It was a now cast. Swing and a miss. Even Lee and st Francis were warned
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on January 21, 2016, 09:44:00 AM
Paul Heggen's latest blog:

https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/2016/01/21/january-21-more-snow-wellllllllllllllllllllll/

boo
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 09:46:48 AM
Bring on the goods ::yum:: ::yum:: ::yum::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 21, 2016, 09:50:18 AM
12z GFS Nice run for Middle TN
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 21, 2016, 09:50:19 AM
The silence as the GFS is coming out scares me


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 09:50:45 AM
GFS has way more sleet before the transition and has a huge hole over me up to Dyersburg lol. Memphis proper, nw ms, Nashville do well
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 09:51:18 AM
Bring on the goods ::yum:: ::yum:: ::yum::
I got my Beer ready drift! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 09:51:45 AM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/8429a3fa6d82585b55f49ece48a52723.jpg)

Not sure I'm buying that but ok
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 09:53:26 AM
If anything this run has wind gusts as high as any run so far along the MS River
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 09:55:04 AM
I know the RGEM busted big yesterday...but the 12z run for middle TN. wow



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 21, 2016, 09:55:56 AM
Sounds like things are shifting back for the better for BNA.  I sure hope so at least!


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 09:56:24 AM

(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/8429a3fa6d82585b55f49ece48a52723.jpg)

Not sure I'm buying that but ok

Can you post that graphic for us folks farther east in Middle TN?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 10:00:08 AM
12z GFS is also a noticeable shift SEward of the main band.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dave R on January 21, 2016, 10:01:53 AM
If only. Local mets are very skeptical of much of anything in Nashville.....
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZQWwNSWYAIOjUy.jpg:large)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: anwestbrooks on January 21, 2016, 10:04:14 AM
I'm in Kingsport (North West Tri-Cities). We have heard everything from 2 inches to 10 inches. It looks like a warm nose comes right I81 but stops just before the Tri-Cities. Can anyone make an educated guess on accum totals? We got 4/5 from yesterday's storm. We are at 32 now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 10:05:13 AM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/d52b212eaa611dd755522ee109c8a50e.jpg)

Huge gradient Davidson southeastward
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 10:07:11 AM
As I believe someone asked yesterday, can I cash out my chips and go home now?(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/c9e2cf99b4ced415d0ce82f83f8b6b99.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 21, 2016, 10:07:18 AM
why are those 2 gfs snowfall maps so different
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 21, 2016, 10:07:31 AM
That's just rude for Rutherford County.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 21, 2016, 10:08:15 AM
Paul Heggen's latest blog:

https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/2016/01/21/january-21-more-snow-wellllllllllllllllllllll/

boo

I was reading that a few minutes ago when I was picking up a prescription.  UNFORTUNATELY, I don't have a script for happy pills.

 8)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 10:09:08 AM
Kevin - some feedback issues on the GFS? That hole makes zero sense.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 21, 2016, 10:10:19 AM
That's just rude for Rutherford County.

Exactly, we needn't have our noses rubbed in it by the 50 Shades of Weather Graphics.   ::shaking_finger:: :P
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 10:11:20 AM

I was reading that a few minutes ago when I was picking up a prescription.  UNFORTUNATELY, I don't have a script for happy pills.

 8)

Paul readily admits he's "betting the under" for the Nashville area. Safest call for him to make and I can't blame him for doing so.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 10:11:53 AM
why are those 2 gfs snowfall maps so different

2nd one looks way better for some of us.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 10:13:31 AM
On to the 12Z EURO next, but we're getting to the point beyond the usefulness of the globals.  Another 12 hours, and we'll be getting into short range and nowcast.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 10:14:43 AM
Paul readily admits he's "betting the under" for the Nashville area. Safest call for him to make and I can't blame him for doing so.

Heggen trolling snow fans in that video a little bit.  LOL.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 10:15:17 AM
Crazy such a difference between those 2 maps.  Well it does appear Nashville is going to get some snow.  Now if we can just add Williamson & Rutherford to that list please!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 21, 2016, 10:18:04 AM
Paul readily admits he's "betting the under" for the Nashville area. Safest call for him to make and I can't blame him for doing so.


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Not blaming him either. I sure wouldn't forecast something that in MOST probabilities won't happen; it doesn't mean it won't make me sad. It is accepted.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 10:20:17 AM
What a roller coaster ride. I think models are starting to lock on to a solution. I may be on the outside looking in on this one.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 21, 2016, 10:21:35 AM
It was a now cast. Swing and a miss. Even Lee and st Francis were warned

That Christmas evening I drove from Marion to Hughes and then had to drive from Hughes to Marianna and cross the bridge at Helena to get back to my parents. Obviously a WSW would have sufficed for Lee County v a Blizzard Warning, but it was actually pretty strange because around Marianna ended up with several inches of snow and very gusty winds while I don't think Forrest City ended up with very much. I ended up sliding off Highway 1 in Lee County in a couple inches of snow, but I was luckily able to get back up on the road.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Vols1 on January 21, 2016, 10:22:34 AM
Is Dickson in a decent spot?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 10:24:01 AM
The Top 3 CIPS analogs.  To me looking at 500mb set-up the 1st one is pretty close to current set-up...but it was in March and a bit warmer. 

March 2nd 1994
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us0302.php (http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us0302.php)

Jan 7th 1996
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0107.php (http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0107.php)

Feb 22-23 1998
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0222.php (http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0222.php)

 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 10:25:31 AM


Not blaming him either. I sure wouldn't forecast something that in MOST probabilities won't happen; it doesn't mean it won't make me sad. It is accepted.

It's not hard to find the bright side in not getting walloped. Much easier to go about your weekend with no more than an inch or two of snow. For me the novelty wears off about 10 seconds after I realize that, believing Pauls forecast, I didn't bother preemptively raising up my windshield wipers.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 10:26:44 AM
Is Dickson in a decent spot?

Yep.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 10:26:48 AM

Not blaming him either. I sure wouldn't forecast something that in MOST probabilities won't happen; it doesn't mean it won't make me sad. It is accepted.

I'm guessing he made that before 12z data?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 21, 2016, 10:27:59 AM
Its looking like the sleet and freezing Rain going to eat into the Snow totals around the area.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 10:29:26 AM
I missed all the fun while in a meeting with a major client (and it was still super tempting to check my phone. I knew the NAM had come a bit south, but meeting started at 8:15)

Need the Euro to hold serve, maybe come in a bit cooler with dynamics same low pressure track. Dynamics are going to be key here for middle tennessee. We need convective banding to change us over early in order to get some decent totals.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 10:30:20 AM
I'm guessing he made that before 12z data?

Looks like it was posted before he would have had a chance to review the 12Z GFS.  The NAM was out though.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 10:33:57 AM
I missed all the fun while in a meeting with a major client (and it was still super tempting to check my phone. I knew the NAM had come a bit south, but meeting started at 8:15)

Need the Euro to hold serve, maybe come in a bit cooler with dynamics same low pressure track. Dynamics are going to be key here for middle tennessee. We need convective banding to change us over early in order to get some decent totals.

Since the others have come south a little, I fully expect the Euro to go NW. haha
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 21, 2016, 10:37:19 AM
Meanwhile just to my east, severe hail in Rockwall County.

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Beth on January 21, 2016, 10:39:06 AM
Is Dickson in a decent spot?
Depends on your location! If your in Charlotte or closer to Clarksville you will have more than enough snow! If your close to the interstate like me it will be a little less. Lol  ;D
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Lcwthrnut on January 21, 2016, 10:43:03 AM
Since the others have come south a little, I fully expect the Euro to go NW. haha

We want positive vibes!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 10:44:08 AM
I am still at 29 here in Montgomery County. I fully expect for temps to once again not make projected high of 38. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 10:44:48 AM
Dynamics are going to be key here for middle tennessee. We need convective banding to change us over early in order to get some decent totals.
I think that is within the realm of possibility. The 850 line is doing some funky things in the morning over middle TN in some of those bands, but I don't know if that's reflected in the snow totals. I think the potential is there for some good surprises to the south and east of the big totals if a band can get going. Of course that's a now casting thing that will be determined in the morning. If I was a public met I would be very cautious in how confident I appeared in my snow forecast.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Crockett on January 21, 2016, 10:45:54 AM
Winter storm forecasts always have bust potential in this part of the world, but this one has loads of bust potential -- both on the high side and low side of snow totals.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mtcards on January 21, 2016, 10:47:15 AM
Is Dickson in a decent spot?

Well, it could use a Red Lobster and a Jack in the Box.....but seriously, yes, I think Dickson will do well.   In most models the past few days they have always been inside the money zone, sometimes by a little and sometimes by a lot.  With the models trending South now, there is a little breathing room for error.  Still, if you live in North DC, you will see a bit more snow regardless of the actual solution.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 10:48:05 AM
12z Ukie at 30 hours.  I'd take that.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/21expfm.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 10:49:56 AM
We are starting to get in the HRRR range and the current run has the deform band setting up in Arkansas like last nights runs.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 10:50:34 AM
The Canadian is coming in south and east. Looks like it lowers snow amounts a bunch though and is pretty skimpy along the Mississippi.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 21, 2016, 10:53:12 AM
Confidence is very high that a major winter storm will impact several of us the amounts will shift around through the event because any trend even 20-30 is huge because there are very sharp gradients both on the NW and SE edge of this band.   I would say areas like Camden, Clarksville, Bowling Green, Dover, and Scottsville are about as close to a lock as you can get for a significant winter storm in our area.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 10:53:35 AM
(http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012115/memphis/hrrr_ref_memphis_16.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: marjl21 on January 21, 2016, 10:56:05 AM
Precip is exploding to our south and west... Lots of lightning as well, even back with the ULL over Dallas.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 10:56:13 AM
Ukie has roughly 1" of QPF in BNA with 2m's and 850's crashing. 

(http://i63.tinypic.com/b4ggld.jpg)

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 11:03:21 AM
12z CMC looks kind of like the Euro from the other day.  Takes more of a east route than ENE.  I like the look of that...

(http://i68.tinypic.com/aomi5y.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 21, 2016, 11:03:32 AM
Ukie has roughly 1" of QPF in BNA with 2m's and 850's crashing. 

(http://i63.tinypic.com/b4ggld.jpg)

Is it showing that the changeover happens fairly late in the day?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 11:05:34 AM
Is it showing that the changeover happens fairly late in the day?

Verbatim, going by a meteogram which is pretty crude, roughly looking at 18z...or noon. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 11:06:09 AM
experimental HRRR out to 24 hours (8am) looks like the changeover trying to happen along the I40 corridor in middle. 850s are below 0. 925 looks to have a bit of a warm nose, but heavy rates would likely pull down cold air and change it over. Again. Dynamics.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Vols1 on January 21, 2016, 11:06:31 AM
Yeah I live in SE Dickson county so I'll probably get the short lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: InMemphis on January 21, 2016, 11:08:46 AM
Any significant changes for the Memphis area?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 11:09:21 AM
experimental HRRR out to 24 hours (8am) looks like the changeover trying to happen along the I40 corridor in middle. 850s are below 0. 925 looks to have a bit of a warm nose, but heavy rates would likely pull down cold air and change it over. Again. Dynamics.

And Memphis is getting hammered and the 10M wind gusts would verify a Blizzard Warning for sure.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Chipper31 on January 21, 2016, 11:09:35 AM
Looks like it was posted before he would have had a chance to review the 12Z GFS.  The NAM was out though.

I had the 12z NAM (but not the 4km), the 12z RPM, and the 09z SREF.  Waiting for data from the GFS is like basing your investment strategy on Powerball.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 11:10:42 AM
I had the 12z NAM (but not the 4km), the 12z RPM, and the 09z SREF.  Waiting for data from the GFS is like basing your investment strategy on Powerball.

Point taken.   :D
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 11:12:14 AM
I had the 12z NAM (but not the 4km), the 12z RPM, and the 09z SREF.  Waiting for data from the GFS is like basing your investment strategy on Powerball.

What are the RPM's verification scores like at this range? Obviously I don't get to see multiple runs of it every day, but it seems like it can have some pretty serious off days.
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 11:12:47 AM
The Canadian is coming in south and east. Looks like it lowers snow amounts a bunch though and is pretty skimpy along the Mississippi.

Canadian - at least along the ms River- has less accumulations not because of precip but sleet then to a quick burst of heavy snow. Sleet is always going to do a number on accums. Sleet is possible just not buoying that with these dynamics

Looking a tad more- Cmc has almost 5-6 hours of freezing rain and blinding sleet at Memphis before 2 hours of moderate snow and 1-2 inches. Not sure maybe it's on to something. Experience tells me different.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 11:18:16 AM
Canadian - at least along the ms River- has less accumulations not because of precip but sleet then to a quick burst of heavy snow. Sleet is always going to do a number on accums. Sleet is possible just not buoying that with these dynamics

This.

The cooling is coming from the top down. Any convection will expedite the changeover. There won't be much sleet or freezing rain here except maybe the northern fringes as this starts organizing.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 11:26:24 AM

This.

The cooling is coming from the top down. Any convection will expedite the changeover. There won't be much sleet or freezing rain here except maybe the northern fringes as this starts organizing.

The hi res models are really the best place now to see specifics since we are short term.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 11:31:34 AM
NWS saying 5-7" for CKV, maybe higher.  2-4" for Rutherford Co, depending on changeover time.  Areas w/WSW not already under a warning will get a WWA tonight.  Maybe some ZR across N sections tonight if temps don't reach +32F today. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Vols1 on January 21, 2016, 11:36:24 AM
What's it showing for Dickson Eric?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 11:39:34 AM
What's it showing for Dickson Eric?

Sorry, man...haven't been focused on Dickson.  Best guess is several inches of snow...2-4", maybe more.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on January 21, 2016, 11:40:34 AM
Hope we don't end up with a situation of everyone deciding to leave work at the same time, once the snow begins.  Always makes a bad situation worse.  Hopefully, the local schools will make the decision to close schools early so folks can be off the road before the snow begins. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Vols1 on January 21, 2016, 11:43:43 AM
Thanks Eric. When does the next models come out? Maybe by tonight we will have a better idea about it all or just wait to nowcast?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on January 21, 2016, 11:44:37 AM
The whole area having a descent show of greater than 4 inches anymore is the same as winning the Powerball, over 1:292,210,000.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 11:45:48 AM
Thanks Eric. When does the next models come out? Maybe by tonight we will have a better idea about it all or just wait to nowcast?

Euro is spooling up now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 21, 2016, 11:46:45 AM
Thanks Eric. When does the next models come out? Maybe by tonight we will have a better idea about it all or just wait to nowcast?

The excitement is just about to start. The Euro runs any minute now.  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 11:47:25 AM
Hope we don't end up with a situation of everyone deciding to leave work at the same time, once the snow begins.  Always makes a bad situation worse.  Hopefully, the local schools will make the decision to close schools early so folks can be off the road before the snow begins.

I have to be at work at 6:30 tomorrow morning. I pray I am able to leave early/get home before it starts.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 11:47:35 AM
 ::wow::

(http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012116/memphis/hrrr_ref_memphis_16.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 11:49:14 AM

::wow::

(http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012116/memphis/hrrr_ref_memphis_16.png)

Wow at the huge dry slot
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bluegrasspr on January 21, 2016, 11:49:48 AM
Knoxville is holding at 34 degrees, projected high was supposed to be 39. Could the cooler temps speed up our changeover to snow later tonight/tomorrow, or will that be irrelevant by the time the moisture arrives?  Also, some forecasters are saying freezing rain could be a concern for Knoxville and the valley area - would that be just a brief period before changing to snow, or should we be worried about power outages?  Thanks to everyone who posts and shares their knowledge on this site - I really appreciate you tolerating questions from a newbie!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 11:50:10 AM
Wow at the huge dry slot

It seems the things that can go wrong are numerous.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 11:53:40 AM
Wow at the huge dry slot

Yep. That is where the HRRR is starting to explode the deform band. I suspect it crushes Memphis. That looks to be insane snow rates.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 11:55:10 AM
Three Points

1) I'm working on almost zero sleep and two teeth that are giving me fits of pain among the worst in my life. Was hoping it wouldn't flare up again before tomorrow but here we are. Will be trying my best but no guarantees.

2) Just a very cursory look at the GFS looks like a potential feedback issue we saw on one run a few days ago...but I'm not 100% on that. The break in QPF doesn't make sense and doesn't match up any other modeling data...which hints at a more of a model issue vs. a meteorological issue.

3) I see a lot of questions being raised about precip type. MEG's latest AFD is hinting at it too. I haven't looked at GFS soundings...obviously. But I didn't see any issues on NAM soundings. The Canadian doesn't have soundings...of course. At worst there is a small melting layer between 800-900 but it doesn't seem nearly warm enough to promote full melting. However MEG is hinting that the changeover might be overdone in their morning AFD so I don't know? Deformation bands like these rarely lead to primarily sleet....and any freezing rain potential should be limited to N/W in areas where surface temps linger near freezing before the deformation zone comes into play.

Sorry I can't be more helpful right now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WestKnoxNavster on January 21, 2016, 11:56:30 AM
Knoxville is holding at 34 degrees, projected high was supposed to be 39. Could the cooler temps speed up our changeover to snow later tonight/tomorrow, or will that be irrelevant by the time the moisture arrives?  Also, some forecasters are saying freezing rain could be a concern for Knoxville and the valley area - would that be just a brief period before changing to snow, or should we be worried about power outages?  Thanks to everyone who posts and shares their knowledge on this site - I really appreciate you tolerating questions from a newbie!
The local guys are throwing so many "if" out that it's unreal. Yeah, there's a lot of if, but they don't do any blogs to discuss into detail the if to the general public. My thinking, and I'm just a true amateur, is the freezing rain in the Knoxville area will be very brief tomorrow when it's working on changing over, but the further south you go the more risk there is. Really just depends on the temperature tomorrow. So far, the forecast highs have been all high. As far as today, I think we'll reach 40 as forecast.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 11:59:25 AM
MEG evaluating Blizzard warning. Also says sleet may occur for a couple hours before the changeover- thats actually worse for travelling.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 21, 2016, 12:01:37 PM
You guys are awesome!  I mean that!


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 12:01:52 PM
It is noon and we have had very little snow melt from yesterday. Our road still has a ton of slush on it. I know that is keeping our temp down. We are only at 30F and are predicted to hit a high of 38F.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 12:04:28 PM
Same thing here Charles, our situation is the same. We were 29 last hour, we may be at 30 but that's about it. I got a inch of snow in the yard now. I don't see us making 38 at all. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 12:05:18 PM
Euro buries W TN, up through CKV, but somehow loses the deformation band bwteen H30-36 as it transfers to the East Coast.  At H24, the low is over Tupelo, H30 it's just W of Atlanta and H36, it's in the Atlantic.

Clown map totals:

CKV 12"
BNA 8"
Boro 2"
MKL 11"
MEM 7-8"
Paris 12"
Cadiz 12"
PAH 4"
All of central KY 10"+
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 12:05:56 PM
looks like mermphis to jackson going to get crushed on the euro
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 12:07:01 PM
still digging in data, but euro looks to hold serve. Heaviest axis of snow from Hopkinsville to Paris Down to Arlington (ne burb of Memphis)

Looks like dynamically good things are happening for BNA. Looks like the dry slot is a bit further south and east. little to nothing for woodbury (southeast of the boro) Davidson County looks like 6-8 Clarksville looks to get double digits.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 12:07:06 PM
euro is 6-8 in shelby co, 5-7 davidson with a tight gradient to the southeast in Nashville metro
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Btillman on January 21, 2016, 12:09:48 PM
define buries
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 12:11:40 PM
Here is a 12z GFS sounding valid for KMEM at 12z Friday...
[attach=1]

There is a tiny (40mb thick) +0.4C max temp "warm nose" as seen there on the zoomed view. That's certainly not a freezing rain sounding. Hard to be convinced that's a sleet sounding...

How will it verify I suppose we'll see but....



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 21, 2016, 12:12:03 PM
Ha it seems like Perry County has been on the fine line of cashing in or getting very little every run. Its a good thing I've grown to love the "let's just see what happens" approach.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 12:12:13 PM
define buries

Bury - completely cover; cause to disappear or become inconspicuous.

In this case, W TN and CKV get "completely covered" by snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 21, 2016, 12:14:05 PM
Kevin, can you pull up BNA?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 12:17:59 PM
Kevin, can you pull up BNA?

[attachimg=1]

This is slightly more pronounced though still not super thick and with a max temp of only 0.8C. That's teetering on potential sleet but also note that layer is not saturated. If it was saturated it would be at freezing (the blue line indicates the wetbulb line)

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 12:18:31 PM
Getting good agreement on wind gusts now from ALL models. For at least 6 hours on the euro, along the MS River from Clarksdale to Memphis and Blytheville, winds look to gust to 40-45mph. MEG almost has to ponder the B-word
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 21, 2016, 12:20:00 PM
Thanks Kevin!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 12:20:28 PM
Getting good agreement on wind gusts now from ALL models. For at least 6 hours on the euro, along the MS River from Clarksdale to Memphis and Blytheville, winds look to gust to 40-45 for almost 6 hours.
MEG might pull trigger after getting all guidance.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 12:21:24 PM
MEG might pull trigger after getting all guidance.

I think it is a given they will. When all models are showing those gusts with snowfall, you have to act.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 12:22:45 PM
IF this comes to fruition, I'm not sure people in the mid south understand how disruptive this will be. This isnt our ordinary snow storm
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 12:24:22 PM
MEG will be doing a live Q&A on YouTube at 3 PM...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErECHJ2LKlE

Bookmark the above link perhaps if interested....
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 12:25:20 PM
Euro buries W TN, up through CKV, but somehow loses the deformation band bwteen H30-36 as it transfers to the East Coast.  At H24, the low is over Tupelo, H30 it's just W of Atlanta and H36, it's in the Atlantic.

Clown map totals:

CKV 12"
BNA 8"
Boro 2"
MKL 11"
MEM 7-8"
Paris 12"
Cadiz 12"
PAH 4"
All of central KY 10"+


Euro buries W TN, up through CKV, but somehow loses the deformation band bwteen H30-36 as it transfers to the East Coast.  At H24, the low is over Tupelo, H30 it's just W of Atlanta and H36, it's in the Atlantic.

Clown map totals:

CKV 12"
BNA 8"
Boro 2"
MKL 11"
MEM 7-8"
Paris 12"
Cadiz 12"
PAH 4"
All of central KY 10"+

Sigh.   ::candle::
Well at least the Nashville & west crew will get some snow. Well deserved & needed.

Thanks for info Eric.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 21, 2016, 12:26:27 PM
Charles looks like we start off getting dry slotted unless it fills in before it gets here.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: kristin on January 21, 2016, 12:27:14 PM
Does it still look like 2-4 on the plateau?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 12:30:41 PM
Charles looks like we start off getting dry slotted unless it fills in before it gets here.

The HRRRX, the one that goes out to 24 hours, shows it filling in.

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 12:32:11 PM

define buries

I like this one:

To overwhelm (an opponent) beyond hope of recovery.

Get yer snowblowers out!
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/ef310e81fb4853a6e21c0401ddc14054.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 21, 2016, 12:38:30 PM
I just read OHX's 11 AM AFD and it looks like it was pretty much c&p'd from the 5 AM one.

 ::whistling::

Deja vu all over again.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 12:39:53 PM
How does the Euro look at 700mb vs Nam or GFS?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 12:44:37 PM
How does the Euro look at 700mb vs Nam or GFS?

Sub 288 contour closed off over jasper al at noon on the euro.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 12:46:51 PM
How does the Euro look at 700mb vs Nam or GFS?

Euro seems to be quite a bit stronger...more isobars...more concentric.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: utvols235 on January 21, 2016, 12:47:52 PM
Knoxville now under winter storm warning
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 12:50:09 PM
WPC map...

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2ljgwoi.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 21, 2016, 12:52:35 PM
What does 75th percentile mean
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 12:53:08 PM
WPC map...

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2ljgwoi.jpg)

I like the cut of their jib - but I hate it for memphis. I wonder why they seem to be less confident about the deform band over there?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 12:53:16 PM
WPC map...

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2ljgwoi.jpg)
WPC map...

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2ljgwoi.jpg)

What does this map mean?  Sorry if stupid question.  It shows amount & also 75%?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 12:54:37 PM
Sub 288 contour closed off over jasper al at noon on the euro.

I'm just wondering, with ULL and 700 being south, if there is a chance the deform band could sort of rotate over BNA at it moves NW.  I guess it all depends on strength and transfer timing. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 21, 2016, 12:55:54 PM
Nws has just put Nashville back to 3-5 just a few min ago. Spring Hill back to 1-3. Things trending in a good direction.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cgauxknox on January 21, 2016, 12:56:59 PM
Knoxville now under winter storm warning

That escalated pretty quickly.  My wife is a nurse and scheduled to work 7AM - 7 PM tomorrow.  Based on the timing of the warning I'm afraid she might get stuck.  Even if road conditions are OK for me to go get her the hospital often likes to keep people on site to provide enough staff assuming others won't make it in. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 12:59:31 PM
What does 75th percentile mean

From WPC...
Percentile accumulations for 24-, 48-, or 72-hour intervals show filled contours of snowfall or freezing rain amounts for which the probability of observing that amount or less is given by the percentile level. For example, if the 75th percentile map shows six inches of snow at a location, then the probability of getting up to six inches of snow is 75% at that point. Conversely, there is only a 25% probability of snowfall exceeding six inches at the location in this example. Percentile accumulations increase as the percentile level increases. To illustrate this point, take the previous example, but instead of the 75th precentile map consider the 10th percentile map showing two inches of snow at the location. In this case, the probability of getting up to but no more than two inches of snow is just 10%. The probability of getting more than two inches is 90%; so, a significant accumulation of snow is likely.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 21, 2016, 01:01:04 PM
I just read about that 75th percentile map, think it basically means 75% chance of seeing up to that amount,  25% chance of seeing more
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 01:03:01 PM
FYI. The chat that we used last night is still working.  8)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Crockett on January 21, 2016, 01:05:19 PM
Here are the highlights of MRX's briefing this afternoon:

Midnight-7am: Patches of freezing rain along northern plateau; rain elsewhere.
7am-1pm: Wintry mix changing to snow along the tier of counties closest the TN/KY border, upper East TN and the mountains.
1pm-6pm: Snow, sometimes heavy, for northern plateau. Wintry mix northern TN, upper East TN. Heavy snow, near blizzard conditions in the mountains. Wintry mix southern plateau. Rain valley.
6pm-midnight: Snow for all.
Total accums:

(http://www.bengarrett.net/images/012116.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: toastido on January 21, 2016, 01:06:02 PM
FYI. The chat that we used last night is still working.  8)

Thanks for noting that.  Fixed.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 01:07:15 PM
FYI. The chat that we used last night is still working.  8)

The mobile chat uses as much - if not more of - server resources.  Until this system is over and done, the chat should be, and soon will be, off-limits. 

Thanks for noting that.  Fixed.  ::rofl::

Boom.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mmk3742 on January 21, 2016, 01:10:04 PM
Trend slightly southeast to Smyrna storm. That way I can justify buying the cool polar bear sled for my polar bear loving four year old.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Farris_TN on January 21, 2016, 01:12:58 PM
Has NashSevereWX posted lately? ... Just noticed on Twitter that he's saying the changeover in Nashville may not occur until between 4:00 PM and Dark...From what I've seen all the models today have trended back to a Noon time likely change for Nashville, correct?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 01:14:48 PM
How reliable is the WRF?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: a1star93 on January 21, 2016, 01:16:14 PM
Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WestKnoxNavster on January 21, 2016, 01:20:11 PM
I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna
I drive a school bus here in Knox county and didn't have to leave my bus but I had to take a lot of my kids back on January 28th, 2014 when the school system decided to go to school despite "snow starting after noon and 2-4" expected" and it started at 9a and they dismissed at 11:15 and 12.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 01:21:14 PM
From what I've seen all the models today have trended back to a Noon time likely change for Nashville, correct?
The 5KM ARW has the changeover at 10am on a Nashville-Franklin-Columbia-Waynesboro line.
5KM NMM also has the changeover at 10 on a Nashville to Centerville to Savannah line.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 21, 2016, 01:21:58 PM
Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

The two systems are very different in terms of setup, but timing may not be ideal for Middle TN in terms of closure decisions. At least in Memphis we should be changing over during or before rush hour.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 01:22:18 PM
Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

This system is pretty different from 1/16/2003 IMO.  That was a bowling ball superclipper low that came at us from the northwest out of NE and MO.

This one is coming at us more out of the southwest... really a different synoptic setup altogether.  The cold air was already in place, and it was snow start to finish on 2003.  This one will begin as rain.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 21, 2016, 01:24:02 PM
Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

Setup wise meterologically it is very different.  1/16/2003 was a smaller system that produced a locally heavier band of snow over the Nashville area.  This one is a huge southern Miller B turned nor'easter with abundant moisture.  Therefore the ceiling for more widespread significant snow is higher.   If I was the school system operate under "Better Safe than Sorry" principle because high winds 25-35MPH combined with snow and rapidly falling temperatures are no conditions for children to be under.  It is much better to blame the weatherman for missing school and to put children in harms way.  I'm confident that at least most schools will learn from what happened a few years ago in AL/GA/SE TN and make the right call. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: KG4GKE on January 21, 2016, 01:24:45 PM
I like the cut of their jib - but I hate it for memphis. I wonder why they seem to be less confident about the deform band over there?

General overall pessimism? Hard to say.  :P 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 01:25:01 PM
Multiple tornado warnings in SHV. Very dynamic system evolving.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: SuperCell on January 21, 2016, 01:25:36 PM
Hey Matthew, I wouldn't fret just yet. I live near Woodbury and feel pretty good about our chances. We are close to the big snow now. A small move south would get us in the money.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: a1star93 on January 21, 2016, 01:26:11 PM
This system is pretty different from 1/16/2003 IMO.  That was a bowling ball superclipper low that came at us from the northwest out of NE and MO.

This one is coming at us more out of the southwest... really a different synoptic setup altogether.  The cold air was already in place, and it was snow start to finish on 2003.  This one will begin as rain.

Thanks!  I couldn't remember if it came from our north or the south.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 01:27:37 PM
This system is pretty different from 1/16/2003 IMO.  That was a bowling ball superclipper low that came at us from the northwest out of NE and MO.

This one is coming at us more out of the southwest... really a different synoptic setup altogether.  The cold air was already in place, and it was snow start to finish on 2003.  This one will begin as rain.

True, but I'd be concerned about possible heavy snowfall rates if we get an earlier changeover. Big accums could be possible in the Nashville to Columbia to Lawrenceburg corridor if those bands of precip flip to snow in the 10-2 time period.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Stevo on January 21, 2016, 01:30:36 PM
Nashville's high today is supposed to be 40.  We are currently at 35.  If we don't hit our forecasted high  today, do you think that would have much of an impact tomorrow?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 21, 2016, 01:31:06 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZRF7ClXEAAQ8T8.png:large)

Updated snowfall graphic from MEG.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Michael on January 21, 2016, 01:31:32 PM

Here are the highlights of MRX's briefing this afternoon:

Midnight-7am: Patches of freezing rain along northern plateau; rain elsewhere.
7am-1pm: Wintry mix changing to snow along the tier of counties closest the TN/KY border, upper East TN and the mountains.
1pm-6pm: Snow, sometimes heavy, for northern plateau. Wintry mix northern TN, upper East TN. Heavy snow, near blizzard conditions in the mountains. Wintry mix southern plateau. Rain valley.
6pm-midnight: Snow for all.
Total accums:

(http://www.bengarrett.net/images/012116.jpg)

Where is this graphic? I don't see this on the NOAA site for MRX.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cbrentv3 on January 21, 2016, 01:32:03 PM

Nashville's high today is supposed to be 40.  We are currently at 35.  If we don't hit our forecasted high  today, do you think that would have much of an impact tomorrow?
I've got 41 here is n Murfreesboro.    Do you think with the rain pushing in from the SW  that Temps will go up??


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 01:36:09 PM
18z RAP has the changeover in Memphis proper around 3 am. Looks as if deformation zone sets up from just north of Memphis and basically follows the MS River down to Greenville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 01:37:28 PM
Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

Wednesday's storm was much more similar to Jan 03 at optically than this one. Actually there is really nothing similar about this storm and Jan 03.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 21, 2016, 01:38:22 PM
Temps will surely go up this evening. If nothing else, hours and hours of rain will warm the ground and air.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Crockett on January 21, 2016, 01:39:07 PM
Where is this graphic? I don't see this on the NOAA site for MRX.


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It was a slide from MRX's briefing this afternoon.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 01:39:23 PM
Nashville's high today is supposed to be 40.  We are currently at 35.  If we don't hit our forecasted high  today, do you think that would have much of an impact tomorrow?

Not really. Warm air aloft will come in overnight and were depending on the dynamics of the system to start pulling cold air aloft back down to change things over. It's a near certainty that it will be a rain to snow situation, regardless of surface temps today.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 01:45:56 PM
Through 6 am, RAP clown map is showing 8-12" from Little Rock down to Mena, AR. Things are getting going in MEG at the end of the run.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 21, 2016, 01:55:18 PM
18z NAM is rolling


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 21, 2016, 01:55:26 PM
Feel a bit bad for the folks over at LZK. Accumulations in AR seem all over the place.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 01:56:32 PM
SREF snowfall mean for Nashville is around 4".

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 01:56:48 PM
15Z SREF totals are up slightly statewide. Especially for nw middle TN.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 01:58:25 PM
When does it look like CKV's transition time will be at the moment. Best guesses from the best. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on January 21, 2016, 01:58:44 PM
Feel a bit bad for the folks over at LZK. Accumulations in AR seem all over the place.

Several of the public forecast maps look wonky.

MEG still has the headline map from earlier showing the larger swath of heavy snowfall along and west of the river, and their 1pm update showed the more likely area for it from Fayette County up to Jackson to Clarksville.

The LZK map shows Little Rock and Jonesboro cashing in with less along I-40 as you get to MEG's forecast area.

Coordination between offices would be helpful during events like this.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 01:59:47 PM
SREF Plume has taken a decent jump for BNA.  Now around 4.5" mean avg.

Hopkinsville around 7.5".   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 02:00:18 PM
SREF Plume has taken a decent jump for BNA.  Now around 4.25" mean avg.

It was around 2.5" earlier.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 02:01:48 PM
It was around 2.5" earlier.

Yeah, good jump...im guessing the 12z data ingest?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 02:02:24 PM
Yeah, good jump...im guessing the 12z data ingest?

Seems like a plausible guess.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 02:05:38 PM
SREF plume mean up to 5.25 for DYR
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 21, 2016, 02:06:49 PM
Several of the public forecast maps look wonky.

MEG still has the headline map from earlier showing the larger swath of heavy snowfall along and west of the river, and their 1pm update showed the more likely area for it from Fayette County up to Jackson to Clarksville.

The LZK map shows Little Rock and Jonesboro cashing in with less along I-40 as you get to MEG's forecast area.

Coordination between offices would be helpful during events like this.

Fortunately LZK's newer map does jive better with MEG. I know which LZK map you mean (it's still up on the front page of their site) but they updated it on Twitter and different outlets and I guess forgot to on the homepage.

Latest LZK:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZQ3GW4VIAA2C8p.png)

Whoops.. and another update!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZRQBJQUEAAAiB3.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 02:08:55 PM
Seems like a plausible guess.

Funny thing is it blends the members of ARW and NMB.  But if you seperate them, ARW show 3" average for BNA and NMB shows 6" avg.  LOL.  There are some real good members in the NMB group...one with 14" in BNA. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 02:09:50 PM
No major changes from the 18z to the 12z NAM.  Maybe a hair warmer at 850, but not much. 

Looking at skew-Ts from the 18z NAM, BNA changes over between 6-9am.  That's crazy early.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 02:10:25 PM
Starting to get to the point where the track shouldn't change much
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 02:12:21 PM
HUN going WWA for their CWA with a possible upgrade to Warning for TN counties if needed:
Quote
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC, HAVE 
 OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS (2 SEGMENTS FOR 
 STARTING AND ENDING TIMES). WE MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN SRN TN AND 
 FAR NW THAT COULD EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IF THE DEFORMATION SNOW 
 BAND SETS UP IN THESE AREAS, SO WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE AT A LATER 
  TIME IF THIS OCCURS. 

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 02:13:20 PM
Starting to get to the point where the track shouldn't change much

Yup, all about where any deform bands set up now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 02:14:27 PM
12km accumulation map. Still showing the huge gradient across middle TN.

[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 21, 2016, 02:15:05 PM
Starting to get to the point where the track shouldn't change much

Just the temps!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 02:16:20 PM
18z NAM clown.  These numbers are inflated, but you could make an argument where 50-60% of the total seems plausible.

(http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160121/18Z/f33/acc10_1snowrv.png)

Notice the tight gradient over Rutherford Co.  Holy smokes...Lavergne could see 3-4" where the Boro sees squadoosh.  Makes me glad I moved N.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 02:16:49 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/542c8b854b46281056738756cb61d96a.jpg)

Ouch that dry slot means serious business. South of desoto co on this run not good. Northern Shelby if pure gold here. Someone just north of the dry slot is gonna cash in big time
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 02:19:43 PM

12km accumulation map. Still showing the huge gradient across middle TN.

(Attachment Link)

Am I correct that if this verified it would be the first time in many years that the *entire state* had at least some snow accumulation on the same day?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 02:20:59 PM
The low placement on Tidbits 4k 18z NAM does something wonk from hour 12 to hour 15.  Anyone else see that?   ::scratch::

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 02:23:21 PM
Anyone with EPS mean...does the deform band placement match the op?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 02:24:27 PM
19z HRRR gives CKV a 33F rain at 3am.  That's a cold arse rain.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 02:24:34 PM

12km accumulation map. Still showing the huge gradient across middle TN.

(Attachment Link)

I'm in North Williamson which looks to be on the razors edge between feast and famine.  I guess for the **** of it, I'd like to see the system shift south another 30 miles... then go do some serious sledding!


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 02:25:33 PM
19z HRRR gives CKV a 33F rain at 3am.  That's a cold arse rain.
I just pray it doesn't stay at 33. LOL! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 02:28:37 PM
I just pray it doesn't stay at 33. LOL! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

BOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!  This coming from the guy who has a better chance of being buried than seeing 33 and rain for the event. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 02:31:22 PM
I'm in North Williamson which looks to be on the razors edge between feast and famine.  I guess for the **** of it, I'd like to see the system shift south another 30 miles... then go do some serious sledding!


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Models all day has shown me in a good spot, but this gradient is so tight I still am very nervous.

The 18z NAM wants to change Sumner/Macon over to snow by noon. So, pretty much, if we change over by noon then we are in for a HUGE event.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 02:31:49 PM
BOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!  This coming from the guy who has a better chance of being buried than seeing 33 and rain for the event.
I was just being sarcastic with him, I'm pulling for everybody man. It's funny my NWS service grids we are at 31 and the low tonight is 32. I am more worried about the sleet transitioning to snow. Sleet is the worst of driving conditions. Good luck to all. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 02:32:58 PM
Very pronounced dry slots starting to show up on the RAP and HRRR that give me pause.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 21, 2016, 02:33:18 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/542c8b854b46281056738756cb61d96a.jpg)

Ouch that dry slot means serious business. South of desoto co on this run not good. Northern Shelby if pure gold here. Someone just north of the dry slot is gonna cash in big time

Yikes. That would be an annoying gradient. Very nice totals though still for from Downtown and Midtown northward.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Lcwthrnut on January 21, 2016, 02:34:00 PM
The low placement on Tidbits 4k 18z NAM does something wonk from hour 12 to hour 15.  Anyone else see that?   ::scratch::

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 02:23:21 PM
Anyone with EPS mean...does the deform band placement match the op?
It looks like the low drops and goes west for me is that what your talking about!?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 02:34:27 PM
I just pray it doesn't stay at 33. LOL! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

(https://i.imgflip.com/xr3hc.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WH Jason on January 21, 2016, 02:35:37 PM
And Paul says he would bet heavily on Nashville receiving quite a low amount of snow:

https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/

It certainly will be interesting to watch over the next 24 hours.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dave R on January 21, 2016, 02:36:31 PM
And Paul says he would bet heavily on Nashville receiving quite a low amount of snow:

https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/

It certainly will be interesting to watch over the next 24 hours.

Not to say his thinking has changed but that was a lot of models ago.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 02:39:02 PM
Accuweather.com graphic. Something to keep in mind once the melting starts(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/e3a01cee1e757b5c27661089177f012b.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WH Jason on January 21, 2016, 02:39:27 PM
Not to say his thinking has changed but that was a lot of models ago.

Do you happen to know, generally speaking, how many models ago?  He posted it this morning, so I'm not exactly certain on how much fresh data has come since then.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 02:39:58 PM
Hope you Memphis boys aren't watching the 18z NAM4...

(http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160121/18Z/f45/snodrv.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NismoWx on January 21, 2016, 02:40:58 PM
Do you happen to know, generally speaking, how many models ago?  He posted it this morning, so I'm not exactly certain on how much fresh data has come since then.
Several. I believe he updated again around 1pm.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 02:41:30 PM
Do you happen to know, generally speaking, how many models ago?  He posted it this morning, so I'm not exactly certain on how much fresh data has come since then.

It was before the 12z GFS, which rolled out around 10am.  Since then, we've had the 12z Gfs, 12z Euro, 12z Canuck, 12z UKMET, 18z NAM, 21z SREF, 18z NAM4, etc..
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 02:42:06 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/xr3hc.jpg)
I meant nothing by it. I can delete it, I'm pulling for everybody. My concern when posting that was sleet, we've had a ton of it on most of our big systems. That was my paranoid sarcastic comment that come across wrong I guess. I'm pulling for Nashville. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 02:44:02 PM
I meant nothing by it. I can delete it, I'm pulling for everybody. My concern when posting that was sleet, we've had a ton of it on most of our big systems. That was my paranoid sarcastic comment that come across wrong I guess. I'm pulling for Nashville. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Don't worry about it.  I took it as such.

18z NAM4 looks really warm, FWIW.  Doesn't changeover for CKV until mid-morning.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 02:45:13 PM
I sure hope that isn't right for all of our sakes. ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 02:45:54 PM

Hope you Memphis boys aren't watching the 18z NAM4...

(http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160121/18Z/f45/snodrv.png)

Weatherbell is more generous with 3-4 in most of Shelby except less in eastern Shelby. North central ms definitely dry slotted except the delta.

Nam looks NOTHING like the 4k
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 02:46:38 PM
Don't worry about it.  I took it as such.

18z NAM4 looks really warm, FWIW.  Doesn't changeover for CKV until mid-morning.

The HRRRX is really warm too. ::shrug::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: jbmac25 on January 21, 2016, 02:49:41 PM
Charles L., what's up with the HRR warm trend?  Concerning?  Looking like more of a cold rain than anything?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 02:50:03 PM
Hope you Memphis boys aren't watching the 18z NAM4...

(http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160121/18Z/f45/snodrv.png)

(http://www.quickmeme.com/img/ef/ef7604a9b4453b40139ccf578f60ee0769fb4db1244d45185c617dad99bb5c7b.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on January 21, 2016, 02:51:00 PM
Weatherbell is more generous with 3-4 in most of Shelby except less in eastern Shelby. North central ms definitely dry slotted except the delta.

Nam looks NOTHING like the 4k

I live in SE Shelby. Starting to get a sick feeling in my stomach after feeling completely confident for 2-3 days.

If we get dry slotted in the 11th hour of this thing....
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 02:52:23 PM
What the heck is going on!!!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 21, 2016, 02:54:34 PM
The latest HRRR is thankfully pretty low on the ice(only a few hundreth's and up to a tenth in NW TN/TN-KY border) potential versus some other model runs particularly the NAM. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 02:54:58 PM
Charles L., what's up with the HRR warm trend?  Concerning?  Looking like more of a cold rain than anything?

No, far too early to be concerned. It will be something we need to watch closely though.
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 02:56:12 PM
I'm an admitted "foul-weather friend" on this forum hence my long absences from posting/reading threads but I seem to recall that the 18z models are generally considered as **** compared to the others?  Does this hold true on short term modeling as well?

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 21, 2016, 02:57:05 PM
So is it time to cliff dive in MEM?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 02:58:07 PM

So is it time to cliff dive in MEM?

Why exactly would anyone do that when EVERY mode except the fickle nam 4k - and that is not bad for most in Memphis- is the only one ?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 02:58:31 PM
We are in HRRR range, leave that NAM and GFS alone
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 02:58:39 PM
So is it time to cliff dive in MEM?

Not at all. Not every model is going to be an ace of spades. Everything is still looking good, as a whole, for Memphis to see a very decent snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 21, 2016, 02:58:45 PM
Hoping that's not a trend. No need to be too concerned yet though. Unless 18z GFS and the 0z suites continue it.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: SKEW-TIM on January 21, 2016, 02:59:21 PM
I am starting to sense NASHVILLE will be left out of the SNOW action... and may only  be Frozen Rain at best .
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 03:01:06 PM
Again, a moment of silence is appropriate:
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/86de7e6bc6726e394fe9f2194f34b922.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on January 21, 2016, 03:03:40 PM
Anyone trying to watch MEG's Youtube live update? Their twitter feed said they are live but I'm just getting "live stream is starting soon" on my end.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 21, 2016, 03:03:48 PM
MEG is doing a live update. I'm at work so can't watch.

Also NWS office in Little Rock has fallen a smidge below freezing and is experiencing freezing drizzle.

And JAN has a Winter Storm Warning and an SVR for Holmes County.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on January 21, 2016, 03:05:12 PM
MEG is doing a live update. I'm at work so can't watch.

Also NWS office in Little Rock has fallen a smidge below freezing and is experiencing freezing drizzle.

I am planning to watch. Will try to update their thoughts here as best I can. Still waiting on the stream to start.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cbrentv3 on January 21, 2016, 03:05:42 PM

I am starting to sense NASHVILLE will be left out of the SNOW action... and may only  be Frozen Rain at best .
Boro too.  Lame


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 03:07:10 PM
Guys, we need to remember that models are a PREDICTOR of what COULD happen. Even the short term modeling could be off. There is no need to be cliff diving.

We have seen events where models say one thing happens and we all get surprised. It happens.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 03:08:24 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErECHJ2LKlE
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 03:10:27 PM
MEG live
https://youtu.be/ErECHJ2LKlE

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 03:11:11 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErECHJ2LKlE


Oops... we both had same idea lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 03:11:55 PM
The latest HRRR is thankfully pretty low on the ice(only a few hundreth's and up to a tenth in NW TN/TN-KY border) potential versus some other model runs particularly the NAM.

From what I understand.  The HRRR is great with precip.  But terrible with temps.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on January 21, 2016, 03:11:59 PM
MEG afternoon briefing starting now.

Still rolling with a pre-dawn changeover in Memphis proper. Sticking with their current snowfall map with 4-6" in the Delta and 6-8 as you progress NE from Tipton.

Think there may be a longer period of freezing rain and sleet in NE Arkansas overnight with a more narrow window elsewhere. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 21, 2016, 03:12:59 PM
Look at this thing starting to wind up on the Vis Sat:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecvs.html
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on January 21, 2016, 03:15:21 PM
MEG:

Localized amounts up to 10". Confidence still very high in a major event for most of area.

Used "near-blizzard conditions likely" again in the youtube update.

Travel "difficult to impossible."

Pretty similar to their earlier update from this am.

MEG says specifically as of now they are not going with a Blizzard Warning. May flirt with those conditions at times but time constraint may prevent reaching that criteria.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 03:17:35 PM
As we start to nowcast remember you can get a good overview of temps and assumed falling precip at
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: joemomma on January 21, 2016, 03:23:17 PM
What happens to the precip over the plateau?  Looks like it goes dry...
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 03:24:24 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/9879f433f5befffc4528d9104c600dbf.jpg)

Last frame of HRR. Def dry slot about to be go bye bye along the river
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 21, 2016, 03:24:41 PM
Quote
NewsChannel 5 Retweeted
 Cuthbert Langley ‏@NC5_CLangley  6m6 minutes ago
#BREAKING: A state of emergency has been declared for #Tennessee as severe, winter weather looms.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: DocB on January 21, 2016, 03:30:03 PM

Well, the grocery store lines will now be insane after 5pm when many get off work.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 03:30:56 PM
Well, the grocery store lines will now be insane after 5pm when many get off work.

They were insane here an hour ago lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 03:31:58 PM
I meant nothing by it. I can delete it, I'm pulling for everybody. My concern when posting that was sleet, we've had a ton of it on most of our big systems. That was my paranoid sarcastic comment that come across wrong I guess. I'm pulling for Nashville. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

LOL, I was just having fun with ya.  It was all good.

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 03:32:50 PM
Weatherbell is more generous with 3-4 in most of Shelby except less in eastern Shelby. North central ms definitely dry slotted except the delta.

Nam looks NOTHING like the 4k

The 4k has been wonky with this storm all along.  Weird.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 03:34:20 PM
 ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

(http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012120/memphis/hrrr_ref_memphis_16.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: gruggett on January 21, 2016, 03:34:59 PM
Well, the grocery store lines will now be insane after 5pm when many get off work.
A lot of the bread is already gone at the Kroger in Germantown, TN.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 21, 2016, 03:36:10 PM
New map from OHX via Twitter:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZRi6e2UAAE_gyf.jpg:large)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 03:37:13 PM
New map from OHX via Twitter:

Increasing totals to the south and north a bit.  Leaving Nashville where it was pretty much. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: gruggett on January 21, 2016, 03:39:26 PM
18z GFS is loaded to hr24.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 03:40:25 PM
Anyone with Euro access, how did the EPS look vs Op...specifically in the set-up of the deform band?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 03:40:30 PM
OHX:

Quote
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY IS WHEN THE MAIN WINTER STORM ROLLS IN, AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES FRI MORNING, AND BECOME HEAVY BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS BY SUNSET FRI SHOULD BE BETWEEN 5 AND 8
INCHES.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLS EAST, A SWEEP OF SNOW WILL
ENGULF THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-STATE BY FRI EVENING, AND THEN
TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THIS STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, AND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS
IN OUR NORTHWEST WILL ALREADY BE IN THE TEENS. BY FRIDAY EVENING,
WIND CHILLS WILL REACH THE TEENS AREA-WIDE.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING COVERS ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS, FROM THE
WEST, FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNRISE SATURDAY ALL OF THE
MID STATE SHOULD BE UNDER A THICK BLANKET OF SNOW. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL NOT BE FIT FOR MAN NOR BEAST, AS WINDS WHISTLE OUT OF THE
NORTH, BLOWING THE SNOW AROUND, AND TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.

MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SATURDAY, DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW COVER, AND LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS.

WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE TEMPS PUSH BACK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ON
SUNDAY.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: willywee46 on January 21, 2016, 03:42:10 PM
I'll be in Clarksville with you Clarksville SnowMan!! Let's have some fun with this! Wanna come join us Charles?? ☃☃
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 03:42:40 PM
18z GFS looks a wee bit colder at the surface...with maybe a touch more qpf.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: InMemphis on January 21, 2016, 03:43:38 PM
Drove by the Germantown Kroger a few minutes ago and decided that it wasn't worth fighting the crowd. Hopefully at around 9 tonight it won't be too crowded.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 03:43:54 PM
Paul Heggan's RPM via Twitter...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZRlg4-U8AEH-5Q.jpg:large)

Quote
Paul Heggen ‏@PaulHeggenWSMV  1m1 minute ago
Several model runs (including the pictured RPM) now trending back to snowier in Nashville. Consistent inconsistency.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 03:46:25 PM


Quote
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE FIT FOR MAN NOR BEAST

Hehe - That's epic. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 03:46:44 PM
Paul Heggan's RPM via Twitter...
Lots of individual bands in there. Going to be some winners and losers.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CloudyDay on January 21, 2016, 03:47:38 PM
Where the low currently sits, is that on track with models?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on January 21, 2016, 03:48:29 PM
Drove by the Germantown Kroger a few minutes ago and decided that it wasn't worth fighting the crowd. Hopefully at around 9 tonight it won't be too crowded.

I went over lunch and had to park *behind* the store (as in, down the hill back by the shopping center on Poplar.)

Bread aisle was teetering on the brink but the beer cooler was full.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 03:50:09 PM
Quote
Bread aisle was teetering on the brink but the beer cooler was full.

The latter is about all one needs.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 03:51:19 PM
18z GFS is a mirror copy of the 12z euro. Memphis metro 3-4 along the river, 8 collierville/ Arlington, over a foot in Fayette. Dry slot starts at Savannah and screws the southern tn counties all the way to chatt. Nashville 5-7  gradient to the southeast although there is a nice 8 inch dot over Rutherford and eric
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 03:51:35 PM
Drove by the Germantown Kroger a few minutes ago and decided that it wasn't worth fighting the crowd. Hopefully at around 9 tonight it won't be too crowded.

By then there may not be anything to buy..Act quick!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 03:57:17 PM
18z GFS FWIW

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012118/gfs_asnow_seus_9.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 04:00:53 PM
I am getting more and more excited as we get closer. Now just hope I can get home from work before it gets too bad! ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 21, 2016, 04:01:42 PM
Quote
Discussion: 
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
As of 3pm... temperatures are slightly cooler in the north than guidance had previously suggested with readings still below freezing. elsewhere, temperature have rose above freezing with readings predominantly in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Moderate rain was detected over north Mississippi at this hour, with thunderstorms just to our immediate south. Latest surface analysis places a deepening low pressure system near the arklatex, with a stationary front strewn across central Louisiana and Mississippi. water vapor imagery depicts two Separate shortwaves, with one over the arklatex and another near the Oklahoma and Arkansas border. Short term, tonight through Saturday... a major winter storm will impact the entire mid-south beginning tonight and continuing through Friday night. The main concern this evening will be light icing over northeast Arkansas and portions of west Tennessee. The roads are already bad in these areas and temperature have failed to break the freezing mark this afternoon. freezing rain will be the primary p type through approximately midnight, with accumulations possibly reaching a tenth of an inch. The aforementioned low pressure system is expected to track across central Mississippi, keeping the mid-south on the north side of the low which is very favorable position for heavy accumulating snow. Rain and freezing rain is expected overspread the entire mid-south after midnight and then transistion to sleet as cold air wraps around the low. There is still some uncertainty as to how quickly this will occur, but model soundings suggest that it should not last longer than 2 hours and accumulations should remain under an inch or so. As the cold air cuts into the region from the northwest, snow will overspread the areas along and east of the river around sunrise tomorrow. Heavy snow will persist through the afternoon hours, as rates could exceed 1 inch per hour. As previously mentioned in earlier forecasts, there will be some instability to work with, so thundersnow and convective bands will be possible. The general model consensus is that the heaviest snow will likely fall along the i-40 corridor. This is nearly the worst case scenario for any commuters that must be on the road tomorrow. We urge everyone to take this forecast seriously tonight and avoid travel tomorrow if at all possible. Anywhere from 4 to 8 inches will fall in this corridor, with even higher amounts possible where any convective bands set up. Northeast Mississippi will likely see the least amount of snow, so upgraded the winter storm watch to a winter storm advisory. The heaviest snow fall will exit the region around 6 pm tomorrow, with lingering snow showers possible through about the 9pm hour. Very cold air will then move into the mid-south, preserving any snowfall on the ground and turning any melted snow into ice. As plenty of snow will be on the ground, i have went ahead and undercut guidance by a few degrees for Saturday morning. High pressure will build at the surface on Saturday and the sun should come out by Saturday afternoon. We should see some Decent melting due to the incoming solar radiation, albeit the cold air temperatures. Another cold night is expected on Saturday, before we see a nice warmup on Sunday. temperatures will climb into the upper 30s and 40s for Sunday, and most wintry precipitation should almost completely melt. The long term was heavily weighted with the superblend. It appears that temperatures will moderate and slight chance of rain will return to the mid-south beginning early next week. Ac3
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Aviation: 18Z taf Ifr to lifr conditions will persist over the next 24 hours as a significant winter storm develops impacting all taf sites. Prior to the arrival of the winter weather a line of thunderstorms will impact tup and now through around 21Z. Another round of thunderstorms is possible around 00Z at tup and meg, although confidence is not high that these storms will develop. East winds will shift more northerly overnight, increasing to 10-20kt prior to sunrise, then 25-35kt with gusts to 40kt tomorrow before 18Z. freezing rain and or freezing drizzle is expected at jbr where temperatures will remain subfreezing. Snow, heavy at times is expected to begin at jbr after 09Z, at mem between 10 and 12Z at mkl between 11 and 13Z and at tup after 15Z. Heavy snow May reduce visibility to less than 1/4sm. additionally, blowing snow could result in blizzard conditions during the day tomorrow.
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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: shaft311 on January 21, 2016, 04:02:09 PM


OHX?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RobD on January 21, 2016, 04:03:33 PM
Those far southern snow lines into MS & AL can't be right, can they? That's farther south than Tuscaloosa and Jackson, MS.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 04:03:44 PM
OHX?

Yes...sorry.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 04:05:22 PM
Not sure if anyone posted this earlier but SREF plume mean 4-5 in the Memphis area
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on January 21, 2016, 04:07:57 PM
Those far southern snow lines into MS & AL can't be right, can they? That's farther south than Tuscaloosa and Jackson, MS.


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Probably overdone as a whole but BMX did issue a WWA for their central AL counties and Spann said a dusting with localized amounts of an inch north of I-20 are possible. I have my doubts but if any convective bands extend that far south a quick thump wouldn't be out of the question.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 04:23:26 PM
In other news there is currently 4 TORS just south of Jackson Ms. What a dynanic system.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Woodvegas on January 21, 2016, 04:25:02 PM
18z GFS FWIW

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012118/gfs_asnow_seus_9.png)

Thank god one of the models finally put something other than 1 or 2 over Cannon and Rutherford Counties!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 21, 2016, 04:33:46 PM
In other news there is currently 4 TORS just south of Jackson Ms. What a dynanic system.

Not that far from the Winter Storm Warning as well. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 04:36:39 PM
18z GFS is a mirror copy of the 12z euro. Memphis metro 3-4 along the river, 8 collierville/ Arlington, over a foot in Fayette. Dry slot starts at Savannah and screws the southern tn counties all the way to chatt. Nashville 5-7  gradient to the southeast although there is a nice 8 inch dot over Rutherford and eric

Curt Eric & I & fellow Rutherford county residents are holding you to that 8"!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 21, 2016, 04:44:26 PM
Nws saying 3-5" for Franklin and 5-8" for Fairview now...Totals way up from earlier.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 04:44:37 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/c40cde901f484b2f8a8d373948f1cdd3.jpg)

Fwiw- 18z rgem total accumulations. East Arkansas looks left out but that's because it has precip as sleet not snow. Not sure that's correct but it's remotely possible
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 04:45:46 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160121/c40cde901f484b2f8a8d373948f1cdd3.jpg)

Fwiw- 18z rgem total accumulations. East Arkansas looks left out but that's because it has precip as sleet not snow. Not sure that's correct but it's remotely possible

I think it does the same for that dot just north of Nashville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CT_Yankee on January 21, 2016, 04:47:38 PM
Nws saying 3-5" for Franklin and 5-8" for Fairview now...Totals way up from earlier.

Where do you see this?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Susan on January 21, 2016, 04:48:08 PM
Appreciate all the information.  Seen a lot on snowfall totals, how is the timing for middle tennessee looking?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 04:50:30 PM
Appreciate all the information.  Seen a lot on snowfall totals, how is the timing for middle tennessee looking?

Here is the wording from the NWS forecast:

Quote
Rain before noon, then rain and snow between noon and 3pm, then snow after 3pm.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 04:59:42 PM
18z COBB totals(and with very low snow ratios- prob a tad too low?)

Memphis- GFS 4 with sustained winds of 30 mph for several hours; NAM 3 inches sustained winds at 20-25

BNA GFS 0.7(wth) nam 6

MKL GFS 1. Nam 10.2
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 04:59:52 PM
WSMV continues betting the under. Says all of Davidson Co gets 1"-2" by Saturday morning. Guess Ron Howe will call for a dusting on rooftops...


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 05:01:18 PM
The watch/warning map is impressive:
http://www.weather.gov/

Although that lack of pink up into southern middle TN looks awful, and that RGEM pic up above is maddening with the mid TN snow hole.  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 05:01:38 PM
WSMV continues betting the under. Says all of Davidson Co gets 1"-2" by Saturday morning. Guess Ron Howe will call for a dusting on rooftops...


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Betting the under works well, until it doesn't. If your job is to warn people of probabilities... well......
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 21, 2016, 05:03:36 PM
Where do you see this?
Weather channel forecast on my phone.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 05:04:02 PM
Could be wrong but always thought the heaviest band will set up 30 miles on either side of a Oakland TN to Clarksville line
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 05:04:17 PM
WSMV continues betting the under. Says all of Davidson Co gets 1"-2" by Saturday morning. Guess Ron Howe will call for a dusting on rooftops...


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His map is actually realistic. 2-4" for Nashville with the 4-6" contour not far away.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 21, 2016, 05:14:17 PM
Sitting at Cheddar's in Mount Juliet and Davis Nolan is at a table near me....shouldn't he be preparing for the impending Winter Storm?  HA!


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 05:14:34 PM
Listening to the Nashville discussion on the NWS they act like the border counties will start out as freezing rain and sleet right out of the gate. But they act like things won't really amp up until around 4 or 5 for the NW part of middle tenn. I hope we all a good one this time! We are at 32 in CKV. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: utvols235 on January 21, 2016, 05:22:55 PM
Could I get a report on the knoxville area. Getting a lot of conflicting reports. Some saying around an inch some are saying up to 5 inches. What should we expect?

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 21, 2016, 05:27:30 PM
Well, WTVF in Nashville gave a lackluster forecast. They do expect changeover around 10am-12pm but don't expect difficulties for travel until rush hour. No totals were given. It was definitely conservative. I have a tendency to side with them as well, giving low expectations.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 21, 2016, 05:31:21 PM
Who needs channel 2,4, and 5 when we have Tennessee Weather. ::coffee:: ::guitar:: ::snowman:: ::popcorn::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: utvols235 on January 21, 2016, 05:33:54 PM
Around 1-5 inches. Most likely.
Oh really? Imagine that...

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 21, 2016, 05:34:40 PM
Raining steady now in my local. Holding at 35. It was suppose to be 40 by now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NismoWx on January 21, 2016, 05:38:41 PM
Rain encroaching on Murfreesboro/Smyrna.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 05:40:20 PM
The latest RAP is spitting out insane totals for the Arkansas Delta - upwards of 2 feet. Accumulations practically disappear (1-4") on the East side of the river.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mmk3742 on January 21, 2016, 05:40:40 PM
I am planning to watch. Will try to update their thoughts here as best I can. Still waiting on the stream to start.

Curt Eric & I & fellow Rutherford county residents are holding you to that 8"!
Yup. I want it.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on January 21, 2016, 05:43:56 PM
The latest RAP is spitting out insane totals for the Arkansas Delta - upwards of 2 feet. Accumulations practically disappear (1-4") on the East side of the river.
The RAP is notorious for doing this with stronger storms. It was spitting out 18" totals in North Alabama during the miller A last February. Needless to say that didn't verify. I wouldn't put much stock in it.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 05:47:08 PM
I wish someone would punch Spencer Denton in the genitals. 

"@sdentonwx

A little concerned about a lack of moisture to the west.  What if we just see a few snow showers.  Just a thought."
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2016, 05:57:51 PM
I wish someone would punch Spencer Denton in the genitals. 

"@sdentonwx

A little concerned about a lack of moisture to the west.  What if we just see a few snow showers.  Just a thought."
sounds like he is related to dave brown... ;)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 06:01:31 PM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/335gt46.png)

HRR tomorrow morning. And with 50mph gusts per same run over Memphis metro
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 06:08:10 PM
Refreshing change in how WMC is covering the weather on TV now that Childers is in charge. Their in-house model is showing just 2" but they showed all the other model outputs, as well, to give the potential range.

Dave Brown would have called it a day with the RPM.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 06:08:19 PM
The latest RAP is spitting out insane totals for the Arkansas Delta - upwards of 2 feet. Accumulations practically disappear (1-4") on the East side of the river.

RAP has to be the worst model ever. Not sure why its even there anymore
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 06:15:24 PM
RAP has to be the worst model ever. Not sure why its even there anymore

Perhaps, but I do recall with the first storm last March - the one that slammed DeSoto Co and left Memphis high and dry, it seemed to handle where the gradients set up fairly well. I don't recall how it did on totals. We got about 5" in Olive Branch and my mother-in-law about 10 miles north saw just a few flakes. What a weird one that was.

Anyway, both the RAP and HRRR appear to be bringing the changeover significantly earlier now - between 2 and 3 am.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 06:23:39 PM
My point to click forecast says rain and snow after noon tomorrow and 1-2 inchs of snow and 1-2 inchs tomorrow night. I dont like that I want 5 inchs grrr. Maybe ill get under a good band of snow. Cant wait until this time tomorrow!

So 2-4" is not okay, but 5" is?  ::pondering::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 06:23:45 PM

His map is actually realistic. 2-4" for Nashville with the 4-6" contour not far away.

Yeah they updated the map from what they showed at 5. Here's their estimate. Lisa Spencer is attached to that arm:
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/91ff36b776b5bce04dbc14dd2263bf89.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 21, 2016, 06:24:44 PM
Looking at the hourly per NWS it has now changed the snow from starting at 5pm to 11am in location. I would guess this storm has shifted a bit southeast.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 06:26:34 PM

(http://i63.tinypic.com/335gt46.png)

HRR tomorrow morning. And with 50mph gusts per same run over Memphis metro

That's a freakin' blizzard. I guess it's not expected to last long enough to issue a warning.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Andy on January 21, 2016, 06:28:28 PM
Temps across the my area (Erwin TN)  are currently below freezing (colder than what model guidance is showing). I would imagine some of the current snow pack may help influence temperatures tomorrow morning,  leading to higher chances of wintry precip. Some of the latest HRRR has some areas across the lower terrain changing to heavy wet snow by around sunrise.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 06:29:31 PM
MEG has changed my WSW and it starts now.  :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 21, 2016, 06:30:59 PM
I thought my temp would rise some as moisture moved up out of the south. It started falling before the rain got here and has fallen to 35 currently.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: marjl21 on January 21, 2016, 06:32:42 PM
23Z HRRR has 1/4"+ of freezing rain and 7" of snow here by 8AM tomorrow with more to go.  Clarksville has over 1/2" of freezing rain with 5" of snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 06:33:44 PM
23Z HRRR has 1/4"+ of freezing rain and 7" of snow here by 8AM tomorrow with more to go.  Clarksville has over 1/2" of freezing rain with 5" of snow.

Sounds good to me!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 06:33:59 PM
Yeah they updated the map from what they showed at 5. Here's their estimate. Lisa Spencer is attached to that arm:
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/91ff36b776b5bce04dbc14dd2263bf89.jpg)


I hope that map busts something terrible in s mid TN. Huntsville met Brad Travis supposedly said that parts of north Bama could see 4-6" if the bands set up favorably so there's a chance.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 06:35:23 PM
(https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t34.0-12/12207677_10153869079752350_813167880_n.jpg?oh=45d1a72a5754820f30e70d6237061550&oe=56A3BC51)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 06:37:26 PM
(https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t34.0-12/12207677_10153869079752350_813167880_n.jpg?oh=45d1a72a5754820f30e70d6237061550&oe=56A3BC51)

yep this was it
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 06:38:18 PM

(https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t34.0-12/12207677_10153869079752350_813167880_n.jpg?oh=45d1a72a5754820f30e70d6237061550&oe=56A3BC51)

FLOG THAT MAN


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Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 06:39:43 PM
I have changed my avatar to Snowbird, as it shall remain until I see accumulating snow once again. So, in all likelihood Willy Wonka returns tomorrow. 


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 21, 2016, 06:44:10 PM
These are been a trend, still very uncertain as we have a tight snow gradient.

Just saw that on live TV. And to think I was starting to warm up to him.
(https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t34.0-12/12207677_10153869079752350_813167880_n.jpg?oh=45d1a72a5754820f30e70d6237061550&oe=56A3BC51)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 06:48:20 PM
I am trying to get "TennesseeWX.com Chatroom closed" on the Memphis TV5 scroll.... standby
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 06:49:18 PM
23z HRRR does not move the 32 line that far north of me. It bisects Allen County, KY before it starts drifting back south from 7-8 AM.

Each HRRR run recently has been keeping that 32F line closer to TN for the duration
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 06:51:01 PM
(https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t34.0-12/12207677_10153869079752350_813167880_n.jpg?oh=45d1a72a5754820f30e70d6237061550&oe=56A3BC51)


[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 06:51:42 PM
I assume we are now holding our collective breath until nowcasting starts?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 06:52:03 PM
Kind of interested in this first band approaching CKV from the south, we are at 32. I hope we don't get a lot of freezing rain. I wonder when the profiles for CKV would make a sleet transition. I also am wondering how heavy this first band is going to be. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 06:52:53 PM
Kind of interested in this first band approaching CKV from the south, we are at 32. I hope we don't get a lot of freezing rain. I wonder when the profiles for CKV would make a sleet transition. I also am wondering how heavy this first band is going to be. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

I'm with ya snowman  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 06:56:28 PM
Why do the on air mets use the RPM?  When the NWS does not use it.  Is it a lazy model they can look at & say yeah that is about right?  Lisa Patton at 6 showed it.  It had Nash getting 3.5 & Boro 3.4. Mt. Juliet 4.5.  Even it is predicting more than Lisa Spencer is.  Who knows.  A lot of different thoughts out there.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 06:58:48 PM
OHX just moved up the changeover times...

[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
[attachimg=3]
[attachimg=4]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 21, 2016, 07:03:03 PM
I am trying to get "TennesseeWX.com Chatroom closed" on the Memphis TV5 scroll.... standby

(http://i.imgur.com/sqotbJD.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 07:03:56 PM
(http://i.imgur.com/sqotbJD.jpg)

lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matt on January 21, 2016, 07:05:32 PM
(http://i.imgur.com/sqotbJD.jpg)

Fantastic
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2016, 07:08:20 PM
(http://i.imgur.com/sqotbJD.jpg)
ron childress looks stoned there...lmao.  thank god tim van horn is no longer around on wmc... cause he would cut those totals in half... lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 07:10:22 PM
Denton: Still holding steady with my snowfall map for now. Just remember, amounts will vary within the shaded areas. #wmc5 https://t.co/ycPuif8mjd

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2016, 07:14:13 PM
Denton: Still holding steady with my snowfall map for now. Just remember, amounts will vary within the shaded areas. #wmc5 https://t.co/ycPuif8mjd
not bad call map... decent chance of higher amounts possible
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 07:16:01 PM
ron childress looks stoned there...lmao.  thank god tim van horn is no longer around on wmc... cause he would cut those totals in half... lol

I would put money on the RPM having totals higher than that. It looks like he created his own totals for the color scheme.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 21, 2016, 07:17:18 PM
I hate the RPM.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 21, 2016, 07:18:27 PM
Wouldn't a quicker changeover as the NWS is now predicting mean higher totals?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 07:20:16 PM
Wouldn't a quicker changeover as the NWS is now predicting mean higher totals?


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It should - but honestly, at the totals we're at right now, that's enough to shut these cities down. No one in their right mind is gonna start throwing out anything higher than they are currently, even if they are confident, because the risk/reward doesn't make sense. Ok, so you predicted 4 inches and got 8... no one gets upset about that. You predict 8 and you get 2... people notice and get angry.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 21, 2016, 07:22:30 PM
I'm getting pretty excited about the potential!


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 21, 2016, 07:23:29 PM
It should - but honestly, at the totals we're at right now, that's enough to shut these cities down. No one in their right mind is gonna start throwing out anything higher than they are currently, even if they are confident, because the risk/reward doesn't make sense. Ok, so you predicted 4 inches and got 8... no one gets upset about that. You predict 8 and you get 2... people notice and get angry.
All politics.   

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: chelseaintn on January 21, 2016, 07:26:09 PM
Have to watch carefully to see when to head into work in Nashville in the AM. Have to be there at 1030. We can't call in without at least trying - ER's don't ever close.  :D
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Adam on January 21, 2016, 07:26:58 PM
It is probably past time for models, but the 0z HRRR has a 996 mb low that sits over NW Alabama for 6 hours. It hardly moves once it is there. I remember Kevin explaining that this is a classic move for a mid latitude cyclone. The cyclone literally pivots there for a long period of time while it strengthens.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 07:27:09 PM
Have to watch carefully to see when to head into work in Nashville in the AM. Have to be there at 1030. We can't call in without at least trying - ER's don't ever close.  :D

Thank you for all you do!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 21, 2016, 07:29:09 PM
Interesting...HRRR has the majority of precip in that gap falling as sleet and freezing rain.

(http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160122/0000Z/f015/acc10_1snowsc.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 07:29:53 PM
It is probably past time for models, but the 0z HRRR has a 996 mb low that sits over NW Alabama for 6 hours. It hardly moves once it is there. I remember Kevin explaining that this is a classic move for a mid latitude cyclone. The cyclone literally pivots there for a long period of time while it strengthens.

Right - your localized heavy snow areas are where this pivot occurs. The low pressure stops forward movement and the trough starts tilting and then the transfer occurs. This is a situation that happens much more often in the northeast than down here. But here we are.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 07:32:08 PM
Interesting...HRRR has the majority of precip in that gap falling as sleet and freezing rain.

(http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160122/0000Z/f015/acc10_1snowsc.png)

Sure does. If that's really snow then that map looks totally different. HRR picks up on the trowel through and its a doozy in west tn.

That's nearly 5 hours of sleet in Shelby Co before a changeover
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 07:33:37 PM
Gonna be a lot of disappointed kids (bid and small) in MEG if the short-term models keep trending this way.

My little boy has been jumping out of his shoes all night ready to play in the snow. Keep telling him there is no guarantee it will come...hope it does...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 07:42:23 PM
Gonna be a lot of disappointed kids (bid and small) in MEG if the short-term models keep trending this way.

My little boy has been jumping out of his shoes all night ready to play in the snow. Keep telling him there is no guarantee it will come...hope it does...

Prob a tad too early to call anything a disappointment? Even if it falls as sleet- which I doubt...that's a complete mess given winds that high.

Latest SREF at Millington avg 5-6 inches now. Tons clustered between 5-6 fairly tight.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 07:50:26 PM
Short term soundings show a warm nose aloft at 900-925 that persists for all of East Ark, West TN and NW MS for just about the duration of the storm. Seems odd to me. It's not present in KY, NE MS, South Ark or even SW and central MS. As if there is a pool of warm air above us that doesn't move or modified by the heavy precip.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Stevo on January 21, 2016, 07:53:16 PM
The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency has declared a State Of Emergency.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 07:55:23 PM

The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency has declared a State Of Emergency.

How rare is that for a winter storm hours before it gets cranking?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 07:56:23 PM
Freezing line is moving into NW Davidson County at 9 AM...this freezing line is quicker than what the 18z run had for Davidson.



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 07:59:06 PM
For BNA, 00z Nam looks pretty good to these eyes. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 21, 2016, 07:59:25 PM
I wish we had the chat right about now. Kevin or Trevor, any updated thoughts on MEM?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 21, 2016, 08:00:48 PM
For BNA, 00z Nam looks pretty good to these eyes.
I just hope it shoves to the Boro quickly enough for us to get good total snowfall.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 08:01:00 PM
By 1 pm freezing line has cleared Davidson.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 08:01:44 PM
If Nam is right and we change over around 9-10am...it shows a lot of snow to come.   ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Stevo on January 21, 2016, 08:04:02 PM
How rare is that for a winter storm hours before it gets cranking?


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My guess is due to the original timing in Middle TN, they are preparing for stranded drivers.  I am not sure though.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 08:06:17 PM
0Z NAM is just a classic trowel through the mid south. def some convective elements too. Winds still gusting to 40 in the Memphis metro at the height

(http://i68.tinypic.com/xdbjoj.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 08:09:12 PM
Nice event for almost everyone. Don't fret about the Murfreesboro hole guys! Everyone around you has 2-3", so you can assume 2-3" in Murfreesboro on this run.



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 08:11:18 PM
Going to assume the short term models are out to lunch on the thermal profile.

On to nowcasting. Precip really starting to blossom from Little Rock to Texarkana. Benton, AR, and a number of other stations SW of LZK are reporting snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Weazel on January 21, 2016, 08:11:40 PM
Guys I left my work in Lyles, Tn (approx 45 miles west of Nashville) and my truck read 30 degrees and it was raining, this was 6:20pm. Got home in Spring Hill and it was 35 degrees and raining. Now understand there is about 250-275 feet in elevation difference. Is this gonna be the factor in the haves and have nots?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 08:12:03 PM
Nice event for almost everyone. Don't fret about the Murfreesboro hole guys! Everyone around you has 2-3", so you can assume 2-3" in Murfreesboro on this run.

It is just dead set to set up the gradient over Davidson County.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 08:12:49 PM
I swear Ron Childres just said "the RPM is inline with the GFS and Euro"
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Brad on January 21, 2016, 08:14:01 PM
Not sure if this has been discussed but with all the rain, brine would be pointless. Noticed while driving tonight that I didn't see any brine on Old Hickory in Brentwood. Anyone seen brine trucks out?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 08:15:50 PM
It is just dead set to set up the gradient over Davidson County.

Yeah, and the 4km is even more cut throat with the gradient.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 08:16:18 PM
I find this interesting. My temp has fell to 29 and I have heavy freezing drizzle. Just talked to my son who is in Waverly headed to Dyersburg and he has moderate rain and 32 degrees.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 21, 2016, 08:16:36 PM
0Z NAM is just a classic trowel through the mid south. def some convective elements too. Winds still gusting to 40 in the Memphis metro at the height

(http://i68.tinypic.com/xdbjoj.png)
Holy crap! Numerous runs over the past few days have drug higher accumulation down the river into Perry Co... I'm glad to see theres still good potential here for something nice at this stage of the game.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 08:18:46 PM
Any reports of freezing rain out of this band moving north in middle tn yet? I'm at 32 so I will let you know here, looks like it's fixing to move into Montgomery County pretty soon. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 08:19:46 PM

Not sure if this has been discussed but with all the rain, brine would be pointless. Noticed while driving tonight that I didn't see any brine on Old Hickory in Brentwood. Anyone seen brine trucks out?

They'd already decided that brine would be useless since it would all wash away before doing any good. Was on the news this morning.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 08:19:55 PM
Look at the temp differences on the HRRR versus the NAM for 9 AM tomorrow.

NAM is first image and HRRR is second.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 08:21:45 PM
Yeah, and the 4km is even more cut throat with the gradient.

Nice horseshoe around BNA.  LOL.  Mundie would come unglued. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 08:22:42 PM
Look at the temp differences on the HRRR versus the NAM for 9 AM tomorrow.

NAM is first image and HRRR is second.

It is 29 here now with a stiff NE wind.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 21, 2016, 08:24:59 PM
Nice event for almost everyone. Don't fret about the Murfreesboro hole guys! Everyone around you has 2-3", so you can assume 2-3" in Murfreesboro on this run.
I WANT TWICE THAT! I didn't come back to TN on vacation from Texas to have this and not get decent totals.  >:D

Bright side, models paint low 70s for Dallas next weekend.  ::hot:: ::coffee::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 08:25:26 PM
Look at the temp differences on the HRRR versus the NAM for 9 AM tomorrow.

NAM is first image and HRRR is second.

Going by soundings of 00z 4k Nam and 01zHRRR for 9am..HRRR has BNA at 33 and 4k NAM has 32. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on January 21, 2016, 08:26:15 PM
0Z NAM is just a classic trowel through the mid south. def some convective elements too. Winds still gusting to 40 in the Memphis metro at the height

(http://i68.tinypic.com/xdbjoj.png)

I like this run... it looks like around three hours of ZR to begin with followed by about eight hours of snow.

Hours 7-10 ZR
Hours 11-19 Snow
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 21, 2016, 08:26:32 PM
Guys I left my work in Lyles, Tn (approx 45 miles west of Nashville) and my truck read 30 degrees and it was raining, this was 6:20pm. Got home in Spring Hill and it was 35 degrees and raining. Now understand there is about 250-275 feet in elevation difference. Is this gonna be the factor in the haves and have nots?


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All of that will have an effect. Models do atmosphere not topography. Be smart with your decisions.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 08:28:02 PM
Going by soundings of 00z 4k Nam and 01zHRRR for 9am..HRRR has BNA at 33 and 4k NAM has 32.

Oops. I just realized I linked an image to the 0z HRRR run. My bad!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 08:28:32 PM
Look at the temp differences on the HRRR versus the NAM for 9 AM tomorrow.

NAM is first image and HRRR is second.

Also 4k NAM is a little south of HRRR and the NAM is already starting the transfer...which will crash temps.  Those are the small details though that can have big effects. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 08:30:32 PM
Oops. I just realized I linked an image to the 0z HRRR run. My bad!

Stormlover is rubbing off on you. He does that about twice a day.  ::rofl:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 08:31:04 PM
I find this interesting. My temp has fell to 29 and I have heavy freezing drizzle. Just talked to my son who is in Waverly headed to Dyersburg and he has moderate rain and 32 degrees.

Got light freezing drizzle here as well.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 21, 2016, 08:32:10 PM
Stormlover is rubbing off on you. He does that about twice a day.  ::rofl:: ::rofl::

LOL! I want to ban you for that comment, but I will let it slide. haha just kidding.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Tornado 73 on January 21, 2016, 08:32:24 PM
SREF increased precip rates on the 21z run for the Mid-South.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 08:32:58 PM
Stormlover is rubbing off on you. He does that about twice a day.  ::rofl:: ::rofl::

That's just wrong lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 21, 2016, 08:33:22 PM
TWC Meteorologist: "All models have been fairly consistent on this, even models that are generally kind of awful, like the Canadian"

 ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Tornado 73 on January 21, 2016, 08:35:12 PM
It has been freezing drizzle here since 3 and 30 degrees.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 08:36:50 PM
TWC Meteorologist: "All models have been fairly consistent on this, even models that are generally kind of awful, like the Canadian"

 ::rofl::

(http://i.imgur.com/ZTW2Ixh.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 08:37:15 PM
Got a pretty decent NE breeze to.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 08:37:42 PM
SREF increased precip rates on the 21z run for the Mid-South.

You speak the truth. All stations in West Tn are in the 5.5 to 6 range. HOP the closest to Clarksville is up to 9.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 21, 2016, 08:38:04 PM
Not sure if this has been discussed but with all the rain, brine would be pointless. Noticed while driving tonight that I didn't see any brine on Old Hickory in Brentwood. Anyone seen brine trucks out?
news said they weren't putting trucks out because of the rain before the snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 21, 2016, 08:44:00 PM
The northern edge of that precipitation shield in Middle TN is indicating possible freezing rain moving into Montgomery and Robertson counties.  Could be about ready to kick things off in the TN/KY border counties very very soon.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: teachingsciatcms on January 21, 2016, 08:46:14 PM
Live in Northwest part of Dickson County and receiving  moderate freezing rain right now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 08:46:18 PM
Heads up guys- NOT a good night  for an I-65 road trip to the gulf coast...
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/54ea3e3c01d9eeff7a0d018ade3472cf.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 08:47:07 PM
Erik's meso temp map has 32 degree line down to Munford
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2016, 08:47:35 PM
The northern edge of that precipitation shield in Middle TN is indicating possible freezing rain moving into Montgomery and Robertson counties.  Could be about ready to kick things off in the TN/KY border counties very very soon.
cool... lets get this party started ::yum::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 08:51:50 PM
nam 4k now has about 3 inches in most of Shelby Co..with still a good bit of sleet before. Getting some pockets of 6 plus just west of the Ms River now too
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WH Jason on January 21, 2016, 08:54:03 PM
I just stepped out on my deck a moment ago and the freezing rain is starting to fall here in White House.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 08:55:06 PM
MEG has moved up the start of the WWA for NE MS. to 6 A.M

Quote
IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI SHOULD START BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE ADJUSTED
THE START TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST TO 9
AM CST.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 08:55:57 PM
Light freezing rain is falling in Montgomery County, we are at 32. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 08:59:30 PM
Still heavy freezing drizzle here with already a nice glaze on everything.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 09:02:35 PM
The party has begun. Let the rates pick up
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 21, 2016, 09:03:53 PM
Temps are even dropping here in SW Davidson County. PWS readying 33.5F and has been slowly dropping .
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 09:04:14 PM
I would like to add thank goodness for this place.  ::applause:: The other place argued about the current location of the UUL for four pages.  ::rant::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 09:07:19 PM
I think the key in the difference in the HRRR vs the NAM (for instance) is the timing of the heaviest precip in the MEM metro. HRRR has it 9 to 12z then tapering off wuickly while NAM is 12z or later. The HRRR may be too fast to allow snow because the column hasn't cooled that early yet. Just a theory. We will see.....
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: SKEW-TIM on January 21, 2016, 09:09:41 PM
I work for the State Dept of Commerce & Insurance... Just got a text
All State Offices in West Tenn. (Shelby,Tipton, Lauderdale,Dyer,Lake,Fayette,Haywood,Crockett,Gibson,Obion,Hardeman,Madison,
Weakley,McNairy, Chester,Henderson,Carroll,Henry,Hardin,and Decatur Counties) are closed FRIDAY

All other State office STATEWIDE will be closing at 12pm.. Pretty big deal, that rarely happens. Guess Gov. Haslam is taking this seriously!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: hurricaneguy on January 21, 2016, 09:10:26 PM
So what is everyone's thoughts on East TN, specifically Greene County? Is it looking more like a bust for this region due to the warm air and dry slots?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 09:10:52 PM
I think the key in the difference in the HRRR vs the NAM (for instance) is the timing of the heaviest precip in the MEM metro. HRRR has it 9 to 12z then tapering off wuickly while NAM is 12z or later. The HRRR may be too fast to allow snow because the column hasn't cooled that early yet. Just a theory. We will see.....

Good to see you here. How are you feeling ?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 09:12:36 PM
Good to see you here. How are you feeling ?

Awful. About 30 minutes of sleep and had to go to the doctor to get antibiotics and stronger pain meds.... So yea
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 09:13:47 PM
Awful. About 30 minutes of sleep and had to go to the doctor to get antibiotics and stronger pain meds.... So yea
Sorry to hear that Kevin, hope you get to feeling better. Hope you all cash in, heck I hope we all cash in! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 09:14:36 PM
I would like to add thank goodness for this place.  ::applause:: The other place argued about the current location of the UUL for four pages.  ::rant::

Because the ULL is not going where they want for their area
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 21, 2016, 09:16:31 PM
I work for the State Dept of Commerce & Insurance... Just got a text
All State Offices in West Tenn. (Shelby,Tipton, Lauderdale,Dyer,Lake,Fayette,Haywood,Crockett,Gibson,Obion,Hardeman,Madison,
Weakley,McNairy, Chester,Henderson,Carroll,Henry,Hardin,and Decatur Counties) are closed FRIDAY

All other State office STATEWIDE will be closing at 12pm.. Pretty big deal, that rarely happens. Guess Gov. Haslam is taking this seriously!!!
I do not believe our office will be closing.   They stated such.  I spoke with several people who are planning to drive into work like they typically would... I don't think the impact statements are getting through to most people.


While impact statements were good in theory,  I don't know that they translate into action they much.   
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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 09:16:56 PM
The RGEM shifted south again. Heaviest band now goes right through Davidson county. That seems suspect, but something to watch for
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 09:17:14 PM
Awful. About 30 minutes of sleep and had to go to the doctor to get antibiotics and stronger pain meds.... So yea

I know exactly how you feel. Just had a round with my wisdom tooth about a week ago. Had me physically sick.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 09:19:12 PM
Heavier precip is just about here, probably fixing to get slick out there. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WH Jason on January 21, 2016, 09:19:57 PM
The RGEM shifted south again. Heaviest band now goes right through Davidson county. That seems suspect, but something to watch for
I just saw that map a moment ago.  That would be total insanity should it come to be true lol.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: EastTNWX on January 21, 2016, 09:21:43 PM
So what is everyone's thoughts on East TN, specifically Greene County? Is it looking more like a bust for this region due to the warm air and dry slots?

I'm not sure what you consider a bust to be, but your winter storm warning for your county seat (Greeneville) is expecting 4-8 inches of snow for your area.

I live in Farragut and we are supposed to get 3-5".  I think if anyone gets busted it'll be the Chat area. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 21, 2016, 09:21:59 PM
Can you post the map for the Rgem plzzz
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 21, 2016, 09:22:11 PM
The RGEM shifted south again. Heaviest band now goes right through Davidson county. That seems suspect, but something to watch for
Has the changeover earlier. That gives the Nashville to Columbia corridor the heaviest accums in middle TN.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 21, 2016, 09:22:26 PM
Still heavy freezing drizzle here with already a nice glaze on everything.

Ryan Vaughan has been tweeting some power outage reports actually in between Jonesboro and Newport, AR. I know they've had on and off freezing drizzle and some freezing rain since last night.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Tornado 73 on January 21, 2016, 09:23:50 PM
Ryan Vaughan has been tweeting some power outage reports actually in between Jonesboro and Newport, AR. I know they've had on and off freezing drizzle and some freezing rain since last night.
500 without power 25 miles south of Jonesboro.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 09:26:30 PM
eastern AR is really filling in now on radar
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 21, 2016, 09:27:45 PM
Can you post the map for the Rgem plzzz
Nm i just saw it..lol at that....SE Rutherford County..dusting...NW Rutherford County..a foot.....lolololol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 09:28:26 PM
Latest HRRR gives Shelby Co 1/2". Latest RAP gives it 10".
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 09:28:42 PM
Can you post the map for the Rgem plzzz

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016012200/rgem_asnow_seus_13.png)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: aeasberry21 on January 21, 2016, 09:32:59 PM
Gfs running now. Is there a chat tonight?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 21, 2016, 09:34:35 PM
sooo the SLP is trying to go SE????

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 09:35:05 PM
Latest HRRR gives Shelby Co 1/2". Latest RAP gives it 10".

HRR is like .5 in in QPF at kmem as sleet. Lol rap went from 0'to 10?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: hurricaneguy on January 21, 2016, 09:36:02 PM
I'm not sure what you consider a bust to be, but your winter storm warning for your county seat (Greeneville) is expecting 4-8 inches of snow for your area.

I live in Farragut and we are supposed to get 3-5".  I think if anyone gets busted it'll be the Chat area.

For me I would consider a bust 2-3''. I'm hoping for 6'+
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 21, 2016, 09:36:08 PM
sooo the SLP is trying to go SE????
Well that's not the image i posted but ok...anyways it looks like it went SE from it's last location
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2016, 09:36:41 PM
not liking this sleety trend... could cut down on accumulations of snow
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 21, 2016, 09:36:57 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZS10ixWkAEqEB6.png:large)


Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 09:37:16 PM

not liking this sleety trend... could cut down on accumulations of snow

It's literally almost only Memphis proper where the model does that
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 09:38:11 PM
not liking this sleety trend... could cut down on accumulations of snow

If that's the case, it would cut into snowfall amounts, but hey sleet has staying power lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: SKEW-TIM on January 21, 2016, 09:39:19 PM
I do not believe our office will be closing.   They stated such.  I spoke with several people who are planning to drive into work like they typically would... I don't think the impact statements are getting through to most people.


While impact statements were good in theory,  I don't know that they translate into action they much.   
Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk


Do you work for the State?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 09:40:04 PM
GFS is 2" (maybe?) for Shelby Co. Less points South.

I sense epic bust.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2016, 09:40:49 PM
If that's the case, it would cut into snowfall amounts, but hey sleet has staying power lol
were is the dislike button at when you need it...? lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 09:42:11 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/96ac3240aad92936db056b55802f12ba.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 09:42:20 PM
GFS is 2" (maybe?) for Shelby Co. Less points South.

I sense epic bust.

Good
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 09:44:06 PM
Good

 ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Kevin Terry on January 21, 2016, 09:45:48 PM
Sorry I'm not in the mood to deal with people's pissiness. Just get over it. Bust. Who cares.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 09:46:21 PM
It's wearing me down to you you're not alone one minute it's the short-term model sucks and it's the global long-term model sucks
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 09:48:29 PM
Not sure if anyone has posted this yet or not...

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 09:48:57 PM
[attachimg=1]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet or not

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 09:49:23 PM

Good

Insert grumpy cat meme here. :)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 09:50:28 PM
GFS is trolling Memphis and Nashville
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Servpro on January 21, 2016, 09:51:33 PM
What is wrong with the chat?Biggest potential storm in a long time and its down?!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 09:52:20 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/13fb4c56493bc5e2e9305581ed238a3f.jpg)

DR-do you live 3 miles east of collierville in the gray zone that comprises 1/32 of Shelby Co? And why are we looking at the GFS for a nowcast?

Ok- I'm done now. No more justification
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 09:52:26 PM

What is wrong with the chat?Biggest potential storm in a long time and its down?!

It was taxing the server too much. 


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 09:52:36 PM
GFS is 2" (maybe?) for Shelby Co. Less points South.

I sense epic bust.


Nice try Ron Childres
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 09:53:36 PM
Quote
Ok- I'm done now. No more justification

None needed.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: EastTNWX on January 21, 2016, 09:54:17 PM
GFS is trolling Memphis and Nashville

And Knoxville...and Chattanooga...and Trade...which will for sure get the highest total in the state (except for maybe Roan Mtn)
Title: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 09:56:44 PM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/13fb4c56493bc5e2e9305581ed238a3f.jpg)

"I can't define hardcore weather porn, but I know it when I see it."
-Snowbird (aroused)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 09:57:06 PM
I see you in NE AR. blooming and rotating westward.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 21, 2016, 09:59:38 PM
Hey...I said 2".  :D

Eric Proseus had a good explanation tonight for the reduced totals for the area caught between the surface low and ULL. And that's where parts of the metro appear will end up.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 10:02:50 PM
I will not tolerate negative talk in my **** thread. It. Is. Going. To. Snow.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 21, 2016, 10:03:19 PM
Lisa Patton just showed the latest RPM. Almost all of Davidson in heavy snow around 8 AM.

This could get interesting.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 10:04:41 PM
WMC5 hold strong to 1-3 inches for the Memphis metro
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on January 21, 2016, 10:04:54 PM
You want bust potential?

February 10, 2006... Enough said...

I'll be happy with 3 inches. I'll be happy with two. This is Tennessee, the land of the bust. I'm getting older and I don't really care anymore. I'll take what I can get. What's fun about Tennessee winter is the unpredictability, and we lose some, but one day, we win big. This storm or next, that day is coming. Keep your spirits high and open on the shelf guys, it's gonna be alright
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 21, 2016, 10:05:32 PM
Memphis posters negativity - about to leave for the evening
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 21, 2016, 10:06:25 PM
News 2 updating changeover times!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 10:07:43 PM
Lisa Patton just showed the latest RPM. Almost all of Davidson in heavy snow around 8 AM.

This could get interesting.

Paul Heggen looking at that RPM...
(http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2372295/kansasmelting.gif)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Servpro on January 21, 2016, 10:08:23 PM
 ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::Even conservative Ron Howes on Channel 5 said start times looking earlier then previous thought. Great trend for BNA as the event has begun. Is this the one???
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 21, 2016, 10:09:47 PM
Paul Heggen looking at that RPM...
(http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2372295/kansasmelting.gif)
lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 21, 2016, 10:10:24 PM
News 2 updating changeover times!
From what they showed in the opening, change over was moved up to about 6 here. On news 2 at 6 the change over was about 8 a.m.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 10:11:21 PM
People we need chat tonight...no sign up just come on in...

http://www.chatzy.com/63279878929140 (http://www.chatzy.com/63279878929140)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 10:13:08 PM
People we need chat tonight...no sign up just come on in...

http://www.chatzy.com/63279878929140 (http://www.chatzy.com/63279878929140)

C'mon in the water's fine.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 21, 2016, 10:13:29 PM
People we need chat tonight...no sign up just come on in...

http://www.chatzy.com/63279878929140 (http://www.chatzy.com/63279878929140)

Only 10 spots! :(
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 21, 2016, 10:13:41 PM
From what they showed in the opening, change over was moved up to about 6 here. On news 2 at 6 the change over was about 8 a.m.
it was 2 pm here and now is 9am
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 10:14:12 PM
C'mon in the water's fine.

Max of 10
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 10:14:30 PM
People we need chat tonight...no sign up just come on in...

http://www.chatzy.com/63279878929140 (http://www.chatzy.com/63279878929140)
I was late to the party. Only 10 can get in free.  >:(
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: aubieman on January 21, 2016, 10:14:47 PM
NWS pinpoint forecast for Mboro (3-6 inches):
Friday Rain before 9am, then rain and snow between 9am and noon, then snow after noon. Temperature falling to around 31 by 5pm. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Friday Night Snow. Low around 26. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 10:15:19 PM
Only 10 spots! :(

Let me see if I can find one with at least 100...hold on
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: @NashSevereWx on January 21, 2016, 10:16:47 PM
Let's keep the convo here. Easier to follow. More inclusive.

BTW, someone tell me that BNA isn't going to dry slot.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 10:18:09 PM
[attachimg=1]

New from LZK

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JTM1988 on January 21, 2016, 10:18:10 PM
Sooo was basically the entire state of MS suppose to be dry right now?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: tntwilight on January 21, 2016, 10:20:05 PM

Let's keep the convo here. Easier to follow. More inclusive.

BTW, someone tell me that BNA isn't going to dry slot.

I'd love to provide comfort. I've been so burned by our wicked winter weather in the past this was a text to my wife earlier today:

"My one and only prediction for tomorrow:

Last year, I made some predictions about winter weather. I didn't do so well. So this year I'm trying a new and much improved approach. Here is my official one and only prediction for tomorrow:

Temperature:  Between 15 and 80

Condition:  Sunny, Cloudy, Rain, Freezing Rain, Sleet, and/or Snow

Accumulations (if any):  A dusting to 20 inches.

I'll be damned if I'm gonna be wrong this time.

Of course with my luck, it'll be like 90 and sunny tomorrow and I'll be wrong once again.

"

:)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 10:20:41 PM
Brief sleet in Franklin. Back to rain now.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Servpro on January 21, 2016, 10:23:21 PM
Did anyone watch Lisa Patton???? Get the sleds ready in Sumner County!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 21, 2016, 10:24:12 PM
Lisa Patton didn't change the snow totals at all even though it's moving in 5 hours or so earlier!?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 10:24:20 PM
I think Spencer Denton just popped on Facebook.... Welcome to forecasting Memphis weather!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 21, 2016, 10:24:39 PM
Snowing in Nashville by 7 am.(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/da293133d1a4475f4793a1bd10af4890.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Servpro on January 21, 2016, 10:25:28 PM
Lisa Patton didn't change the snow totals at all even though it's moving in 5 hours or so earlier!?
She should RGEM snow totals that were much higher then the forecasted amounts. BNA with 4 and Portland with 10.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 21, 2016, 10:26:38 PM
I realize what Lisa Patton just threw out there from RPM will never happen... but wow that was something to see. She also put Perry Co in 4-8".
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 10:29:43 PM
Sorry guys, I don't see a free private chat that will let in an unlimited number of people.  We can get more than 10, you just have to sign up.  If someone else has a better answer, I'm all ears.

http://www.chatzy.com/63279878929140 (http://www.chatzy.com/63279878929140)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WH Jason on January 21, 2016, 10:31:50 PM
I just set this up - Not certain on user limitations, but it does not state anything about one:

https://tlk.io/tennesseewx
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: chelseaintn on January 21, 2016, 10:32:02 PM
Maybe I am in the minority but I find the chat hard to follow if I am not hanging online every minute. The boards are nice in a time like this to be able to leave for a bit and then catch up. Granted each has its positives and negatives.

One thing is for sure when I leave for work in the AM I am packing a bag. I work in the ER so I am sure if we get a bunch of snow I can get a room in the inn. granted they will put us in unused patient beds but it will be warm and safe.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 10:36:02 PM
The chat is just for having fun...any "news" will still be posted to the board.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 10:38:42 PM
A steady freezing rain at 31 degrees, the trees are already glazed over. This might not be good. Hoping for a quick sleet transition and quicker snow transition. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 21, 2016, 10:39:22 PM
Any ground reports from just southwest of Little Rock?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 10:40:26 PM
Apparently, there seems to be a want for a chatroom.  If you initiate a chatroom beyond these walls, it will be unsanctioned and ungoverned by TennesseeWx staff.  I would honestly like to see the conversation stay here, but if you need a chatroom that bad, our Founding Fathers made that a possibility.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 21, 2016, 10:43:08 PM
Apparently, there seems to be a want for a chatroom.  If you initiate a chatroom beyond these walls, it will be unsanctioned and ungoverned by TennesseeWx staff.  I would honestly like to see the conversation stay here, but if you need a chatroom that bad, our Founding Fathers made that a possibility.

Chatting is what people do when their nervous.  I'm down for conversation.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 10:43:18 PM
Still just a light freezing drizzle here
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 10:49:33 PM
Any ground reports from just southwest of Little Rock?

I am checking live cameras and nothing to see yet
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 21, 2016, 10:49:46 PM
Anyone have bufkit info to share for certain cities?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 10:52:50 PM
I am checking live cameras and nothing to see yet

I've seen some images on Twitter from Little Rock mets
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 21, 2016, 10:53:19 PM
Traffic cams from Oak Grove and near Franklin, KY show enough precipitation to wet roads.  Since it is below freezing and the precipitation type is freezing rain we are likely beginning to see road conditions go down the drain in NW Middle TN and adjacent SW/South-Central KY. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 10:55:37 PM
I am checking live cameras and nothing to see yet

Check out JeffBaskinFOX16 on Periscope right now
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JTM1988 on January 21, 2016, 10:55:44 PM
The latest HRRR looks nice for BNA---I would like to post the GIF but not sure it would animate on the app


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Servpro on January 21, 2016, 10:59:08 PM
The latest HRRR looks nice for BNA---I would like to post the GIF but not sure it would animate on the app

Yes very nice. Almost 10 inches for me in Gallatin on that run. I will cash in on that!!
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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 10:59:44 PM
Looks like snow on some Arkansas webcams.... http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 21, 2016, 11:01:09 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0040.html

New Mesoscale outlook involves northern Middle TN and Northwestern TN. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 11:02:33 PM
Check out JeffBaskinFOX16 on Periscope right now

Yeah roads are a mess in Little Rock now
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 11:03:41 PM
Heavy freezing drizzle and 30 degrees for couple hours here.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 11:05:28 PM
Looks like BNA/Murfreesboro get the goods with the 3z HRRR.  Notice how the deformation zone fills back in towards the tail end of the run as it transitions.

(http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012203/tx/hrrr_2016012203_ref_15min_tx.gif)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 21, 2016, 11:05:55 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0040.html

New Mesoscale outlook involves northern Middle TN and Northwestern TN.
sounds like the start of the deform band
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 11:06:23 PM
Moderate freezing rain here in woodlawn. I can tell my road is glazed over here and the trees as well. I am sure roads are getting slick in Montgomery County at this time. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 21, 2016, 11:07:38 PM
Looks like BNA/Murfreesboro get the goods with the 3z HRRR.  Notice how the deformation zone fills back in towards the tail end of the run as it transitions.

(http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012203/tx/hrrr_2016012203_ref_15min_tx.gif)

Please sweet baby Jesus, plzzzz
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 11:08:30 PM
Update from JAN

1013 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

.UPDATE...

WINTER STORM IS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED WITH LATEST SATELLITE
DATA/OBSERVATIONS INDICATING STRONG LIFT/COOLING OVER WRN/CNTRL AR
INTO NRN LA ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED COLD CORE SYSTEM.
EXPECT INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES OVER SE AR/NE LA OVERNIGHT
WITH SUFFICIENT COOLING OF THE COLUMN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/SNOW
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. COOLING AND PRECIP TRANSITION WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE GREATEST LIFT GENERALLY HOLDS OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION INTO NORTH CENTRAL MS. THAT IS WHERE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE IN
EFFECT. THERE ARE NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THESE PRODUCTS WITH MODEL
TRENDS GENERALLY THE SAME FOR MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS. /EC/
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 21, 2016, 11:09:22 PM
Looks like BNA/Murfreesboro get the goods with the 3z HRRR.  Notice how the deformation zone fills back in towards the tail end of the run as it transitions.

(http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012203/tx/hrrr_2016012203_ref_15min_tx.gif)
This, ALL OF THIS!  ::wow:: ::yum::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 21, 2016, 11:09:43 PM
NWS office in Little Rock reports they have switched to mostly snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 11:10:19 PM
Looks like BNA/Murfreesboro get the goods with the 3z HRRR.  Notice how the deformation zone fills back in towards the tail end of the run as it transitions.

Wow, you ain't joking.  Plus it is backfilling as it ends. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: VandyMachine on January 21, 2016, 11:17:59 PM
I would buy that for a dollar!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 21, 2016, 11:18:32 PM
i-24 is a mess in Clarksville they have had to temporary shut down Exit 11.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: InMemphis on January 21, 2016, 11:20:42 PM
Just got in from shopping at the Germantown Kroger and it's still very crowded.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 11:23:12 PM
i-24 is a mess in Clarksville they have had to temporary shut down Exit 11.
Yeah I can tell by looking outside that things are slick. Do you think that CKV is still going to do good on the snow end stormnine. Nashville is going to be okay also I think, at least from what I can tell. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 11:29:16 PM
Noticing a nice glow to the trees
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 11:30:20 PM
I have saved that 03z HRRR animation for future use.   ::guitar::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 21, 2016, 11:30:51 PM
Yeah I can tell by looking outside that things are slick. Do you think that CKV is still going to do good on the snow end stormnine. Nashville is going to be okay also I think, at least from what I can tell. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Clarksville and the KY/TN border areas should be fine for snow lovers in matter of fact will likely be the big winners since we have the main deformation band moving through our area.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 21, 2016, 11:34:18 PM
Yeah I can tell by looking outside that things are slick. Do you think that CKV is still going to do good on the snow end stormnine. Nashville is going to be okay also I think, at least from what I can tell. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Dude, if you ask that one more time.  OF COURSE CKV IS GOING TO GET THEIRS!!!  In other news, portions of 101st are already closed due to ice.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 21, 2016, 11:34:32 PM
Low tonight in Nashville was supposed to be 36.

It's currently 34.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 21, 2016, 11:39:01 PM
It is 34 here in Smyrna at my location.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on January 21, 2016, 11:40:03 PM
BNA TAF says Nashville switches by 15z... Also 33.3 here and I'm out in Antioch
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 21, 2016, 11:40:53 PM
I would say we are pushing 1/4 inch of ice on trees and power lines. Still heavy freezing drizzle and 30 degrees.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 21, 2016, 11:42:51 PM
I would say we are pushing 1/4 inch of ice on trees and power lines. Still heavy freezing drizzle and 30 degrees.

You may be switching over pretty soon.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 11:43:08 PM
Dude, if you ask that one more time.  OF COURSE CKV IS GOING TO GET THEIRS!!!  In other news, portions of 101st are already closed due to ice.
I am aware of the ice, I took a little nap and was just wondering if there had been any changes with deformation banding. Excuse me for being a little nervous, in weather in the south nothing is certain. My main concern is this transitioning to sleet rather than a long period of freezing rain. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 11:43:17 PM
Down to 32 near my house in Olive Branch
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cbrentv3 on January 21, 2016, 11:43:43 PM
37 here in Murfreesboro hwy 231 south west side of town


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 11:45:19 PM
I would say we are pushing 1/4 inch of ice on trees and power lines. Still heavy freezing drizzle and 30 degrees.
Yikes dyer, we are getting freezing rain also. Trees and glazed and the streets are very slick. Good luck, I am going to go lay down for a few more hours and try to get up around 3. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wilsoncountygirl on January 21, 2016, 11:46:48 PM
BNA TAF says Nashville switches by 15z... Also 33.3 here and I'm out in Antioch

What time does 15z turn into? Also is Nashville or Lebanon going to see any type of wintry precipitation tonight? We are not supposed to get below 33 degrees until tomorrow afternoon.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 21, 2016, 11:48:28 PM
What time does 15z turn into? Also is Nashville or Lebanon going to see any type of wintry precipitation tonight? We are not supposed to get below 33 degrees until tomorrow afternoon.

15z is 6 hours ahead of central time.  So 9:00am.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on January 21, 2016, 11:50:12 PM
What time does 15z turn into? Also is Nashville or Lebanon going to see any type of wintry precipitation tonight? We are not supposed to get below 33 degrees until tomorrow afternoon.
I think we'll be below freezing before noon... And no not tonight, though if temps fall any more I may be wrong and we might see a bit of ice
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: teachingsciatcms on January 21, 2016, 11:50:50 PM
Don't want to go to sleep. Too many times when I've gotten up the next morning there has been nothing on the ground, and the news channel's saying it JUST missed us.

Do the models ever get to a point where, the majority of them agree on the outcome.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wilsoncountygirl on January 21, 2016, 11:51:10 PM
Wow that's much earlier than I thought. I was thinking it would happen around 12-3 but probably not stick under little later when temp drops below freezing. My hourly forecast says Lebanon will be above freezing until 6pm.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on January 21, 2016, 11:51:40 PM
Is it just me or does the low seem to be moving due east rather than ENE?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on January 21, 2016, 11:52:04 PM
Wow that's much earlier than I thought. I was thinking it would happen around 12-3 but probably not stick under little later when temp drops below freezing. My hourly forecast says Lebanon will be above freezing until 6pm.
Where are you getting your forecast?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 21, 2016, 11:52:47 PM
wunderground map shows a lighting strike near Stuttgart AR!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wilsoncountygirl on January 21, 2016, 11:53:49 PM
I checked weather.com a little earlier. Hourly forecast keeps up above freezing all day.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on January 21, 2016, 11:56:18 PM
I checked weather.com a little earlier. Hourly forecast keeps up above freezing all day.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna)

Use this. This is the National Weather Service. The Weather Channel is a joke as far as this kind of thing goes.

They basically spit out model data verbatim which if you notice is why their forecast changes often dramatically in a few hours' time
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 21, 2016, 11:58:27 PM
Heavy returns just to my south here, I'm wondering if this may transition to sleet under the heavier bands. We are at 30. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 21, 2016, 11:59:24 PM
Snow covered roads in Little Rock
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 22, 2016, 12:01:44 AM
Will not be much longer before Memphis gets some precip
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 12:04:01 AM
Anyone watching the low dance around on the 05z HRRR?  LOL.  What the heck?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: jbmac25 on January 22, 2016, 12:04:54 AM
Reading a lot of talk about the dry slot.  Making me nervous.  Please Lord, surely not after the late day models...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cloudcrash619 on January 22, 2016, 12:11:57 AM
Midnight observations have moderate snow in Little rock and light snow with 3/4 mi. visibility in El Dorado, which is near the Louisiana border.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2016, 12:14:52 AM
5z hrr getting much better for memphis
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 22, 2016, 12:15:39 AM
KATV met reporting ~3" in west Little Rock
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 22, 2016, 12:20:22 AM
Webcams showing River Market District in Downtown Little Rock covered.

Also, widespread power outages across NE AR and the Bootheel now. I have to say I'm surprised to see so many and the wind hasn't cranked up yet either.

It seems El Dorado and Batesville switched over to snow around the same time. Kind of unusual, although Batesville had been icing prior whereas El Dorado was rain.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cbrentv3 on January 22, 2016, 12:22:16 AM

Anyone watching the low dance around on the 05z HRRR?  LOL.  What the heck?
any changes for middle Tennessee


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Adam on January 22, 2016, 12:24:44 AM
any changes for middle Tennessee


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It looks really good for Middle Tennessee actually. Although at this point it is almost pointless to look at computer models. It is happening in front of us.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: memphishogfan on January 22, 2016, 12:26:19 AM
Had to take the newborn to LeBonheur today for some tests. Left memphis at 10:00 and it took 2 hrs to make a 1 hr drive home.  I have no idea how much ZR has fallen up here west of Blytheville but everything is coated.  We are so screwed when the wind comes in.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2016, 12:27:24 AM
I'm increasingly becoming concerned about ice for the higher elevations of Davidson County. Already 31.6F here in Oak Hill with moderate rain. Hopefully WAA will kick in before the changeover to snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 12:29:35 AM
It looks really good for Middle Tennessee actually. Although at this point it is almost pointless to look at computer models. It is happening in front of us.

I'm scared to go to bed, it's looking too good.  I know I will wake up, quick check the radar and models and be like... ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Adam on January 22, 2016, 12:30:17 AM
I'm increasingly becoming concerned about ice for the higher elevations of Davidson County. Already 31.6F here in Oak Hill with moderate rain. Hopefully WAA will kick in before the changeover to snow.
You are right to be concerned... The HRRR for the last few runs has kept the freezing line in the right in that area. Hopefully areas can at least warm up to 33 so they are not dealing with that.

Post Merge: January 22, 2016, 12:31:19 AM
I'm scared to go to bed, it's looking too good.  I know I will wake up, quick check the radar and models and be like... ::bangingheadintowall::
Just enjoy the ride. The time to look at computer models is over and the event is happening right now. Get some sleep and let us see what morning holds!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 12:34:21 AM
HRRR has really been struggling with deform band in west Tn just like models all week. It about lost it for a few runs and now has trended better. Latest run has 5 for Dyersburg , 6 for Jackson and 2 to 3 for Memphis.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: memphishogfan on January 22, 2016, 12:34:40 AM
Quote
NWS Little Rock ‏@NWSLittleRock  2m2 minutes ago
Heavy snow is falling at the NWS office...1.3 inches so far...1 inch in the last 20 minutes! #arwx
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2016, 12:39:16 AM
If there is any silver lining concerning the ice potential, it is the rainfall rates; should minimize accretion to an extent.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Simplex on January 22, 2016, 12:39:29 AM
Hey guys, been a lurker here for a while, thought I'd post...

Anyway anyone see the wind gusts on the latest HRRR for after 9am tomorrow? Looks like 50+ kts over West TN and then 60+ kt gusts over the Smokies?? Yikes
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 22, 2016, 12:41:19 AM
1" of snow in 20 minutes at the Little Rock NWS office.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WH Jason on January 22, 2016, 12:41:27 AM
The freezing rain up here in White House is getting ugly.  Fast.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 12:47:23 AM
Yeah got quite a bit of ice on the trees. The Heavy Snow coming in along with high winds spells lot of problems for this area.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 22, 2016, 12:49:04 AM
snow is really starting to amp up back over in Arkansas... even trying to back build over little rock...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 22, 2016, 12:50:13 AM
Rain/snow mix in Midtown Memphis
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 22, 2016, 12:50:21 AM
Quote
1240 AM     HEAVY SNOW       N LITTLE ROCK ARPT      34.83N 92.26W
01/22/2016  M2.4 INCH        PULASKI            AR   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            2.1 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN AT THE NWS OFFICE SINCE
            MIDNIGHT. SO FAR...IT IS AVERAGING CLOSE TO ONE INCH
            EVERY TWENTY MINUTES.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WH Jason on January 22, 2016, 12:50:46 AM
Yeah got quite a bit of ice on the trees. The Heavy Snow coming in along with high winds spells lot of problems for this area.

No kidding Ballpark.  You got any candles over at your place?  I'll get out the sled dogs and head your way lol.

Post Merge: January 22, 2016, 12:51:20 AM
Quote
[/quote1240 AM     HEAVY SNOW       N LITTLE ROCK ARPT      34.83N 92.26W
01/22/2016  M2.4 INCH        PULASKI            AR   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            2.1 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN AT THE NWS OFFICE SINCE
            MIDNIGHT. SO FAR...IT IS AVERAGING CLOSE TO ONE INCH
            EVERY TWENTY MINUTES.

And that is some SERIOUSLY intense rates.  Good lord.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2016, 12:53:13 AM

Rain/snow mix in Midtown Memphis

Awesome! Where did you find tha?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 22, 2016, 12:53:50 AM
2-3"Hour rates would be most excellent .
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 22, 2016, 12:54:13 AM
Awesome! Where did you find tha?

I have some flakes mixed in in Vollintine-Evergreen. Mostly light rain though.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 22, 2016, 12:54:40 AM
Awesome! Where did you find tha?

I have a buddy that lives in the Cooper/Young area and I trust him enough to take his word for it. Ron Childers also did a quick video saying they have rain about 10 minutes before my buddy said rain/snow
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2016, 12:56:16 AM
(http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/16/01/21/5ddd26bf31debc47fde73698c5d88d78.jpg)

The makings of a deformation band
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 12:57:25 AM
90 % rain 10 % sleet in Dyersburg 30 degrees. Major ice problems in NE Ark and SE Mo. They are starting to change to snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 22, 2016, 01:00:26 AM
The freezing line is basically right along the MS River between Shelby and Crittenden.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2016, 01:03:26 AM
kmem down to 33, west memphis at 30. almost guaranteeing all frozen
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 01:06:01 AM
Looking at the radar Snow is starting to transition everywhere very quickly.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 01:06:44 AM
29.6 here and pouring down rain.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 22, 2016, 01:07:07 AM
Quote
2.8 inches of snow at the NWS office so far...2.5 inches fell in the last hour alone! #arwx

I can't.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 01:07:36 AM
Freezing rain imby. HRRR still wants to get me above freezing later.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wfrogge on January 22, 2016, 01:08:00 AM
That band over the city of Memphis will lower temps as the precipitation falls.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on January 22, 2016, 01:14:53 AM
Currently 32.6 in Olive Branch.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 01:21:43 AM
The last few frames of the HRRR start to push the freezing line back NW. Why? ::shrug::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 22, 2016, 01:24:24 AM
Mailbox is icing over.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 22, 2016, 01:30:13 AM
Sleet in midtown
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sandra on January 22, 2016, 01:31:29 AM
32 in Millington.  I'm starting to get a glaze on
stuff.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 01:34:30 AM
The temp keeps dropping in Scottsville, KY. They currently sit at 29.4F.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: andyhb on January 22, 2016, 01:36:01 AM
The last few frames of the HRRR start to push the freezing line back NW. Why? ::shrug::

Should advise that the HRRR has largely been a joke with this in terms of the cold air advection and/or surface temps.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 01:38:12 AM
Should advise that the HRRR has largely been a joke with this in terms of the cold air advection and/or surface temps.

Yeah, I don't think we were suppose to have freezing rain for this long. Yay for now casting.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: InMemphis on January 22, 2016, 01:43:52 AM
Seems to be all rain right now in Germantown.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 22, 2016, 01:46:55 AM
About 60% Freezing Rain/40% Sleet right now. Very light glaze just forming. 32.4.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 01:49:48 AM
Freezing rain accumulation from the latest HRRR run (6z). And as Andy pointed out, these totals could even be further south since this model is not handling temps well.

IF, big if, this comes close to verifying and we get near 1/2" of ice and then snow on top...northern middle TN will be chaos.


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on January 22, 2016, 01:57:43 AM
31.8 light ZR and sleet.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 02:08:31 AM

Do you work for the State?
No.   Private business.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 02:09:40 AM
Freezing rain accumulation from the latest HRRR run (6z). And as Andy pointed out, these totals could even be further south since this model is not handling temps well.

IF, big if, this comes close to verifying and we get near 1/2" of ice and then snow on top...northern middle TN will be chaos.
I say that would be case the Charles snow on top of ice 30 mile gusts defiantly going to be chaos.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 02:11:37 AM
I say that would be case the Charles snow on top of ice 30 mile gusts defiantly going to be chaos.

Yes. It would be widespread issues, and not just on the roads.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 22, 2016, 02:15:05 AM
MEG must have updated their grids recently.  Now showing 4-9 inches for my point forecast.  Slight increase from earlier
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 03:19:46 AM
HRRR is still wanting to put Nashville into the snow fun by 10-11 AM.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: InMemphis on January 22, 2016, 03:24:42 AM
Glaze on elevated surfaces in Germantown.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 03:28:50 AM
MEG must have updated their grids recently.  Now showing 4-9 inches for my point forecast.  Slight increase from earlier
Me,  too.   I'm not sure what the thoughts were that went into that.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 03:31:27 AM
HRRR is still wanting to put Nashville into the snow fun by 10-11 AM.
RAP has it even earlier. 9 AM
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 03:33:07 AM
This is not good. We are at 1/2 inch of ice and still moderate freezing rain with 30 mph wind gust.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 03:34:55 AM
I really keep thinking they may go with the blizzard warning prior to the morning commute.  Guidance looks like it's pretty much a justifiable call.

I think it would make a huge difference in keeping people home today.   Several people I spoke with were planning long commutes into work this morning.   

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 22, 2016, 03:36:31 AM
This is not good. We are at 1/2 inch of ice and still moderate freezing rain with 30 mph wind gust.

Radar trends have you going to snow shortly
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 03:36:50 AM
This is not good. We are at 1/2 inch of ice and still moderate freezing rain with 30 mph wind gust.
No,  it's not.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 03:37:43 AM
Radar returns are filling in the gaps near Erin and Waverly. We are still at freezing rain and 31F. Ugh.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 03:38:02 AM
Just woke up is everything on track overall. I see icing issues everywhere? ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 03:38:03 AM
Radar trends have you going to snow shortly
Yes,  but his power situation is going to remain vulnerable  as snow and more wind get added to the equation.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 03:39:38 AM
Just woke up is everything on track overall. I see icing issues everywhere? ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Yep. You are still looking at a solid, big snow. And this ice we are getting will just increase our troubles.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 03:40:29 AM
This is not good. We are at 1/2 inch of ice and still moderate freezing rain with 30 mph wind gust.
Ouch! Be prepared for lights out soon. 1/2" seems to be the breaking point for lots of bad stuff happening, especially with those winds.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 03:43:15 AM
Luckily we have the best electric company in the state. As of 3:45 we are changing to an icy snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 22, 2016, 03:44:42 AM
We have definitely iced over here. No sign of sleet or snow yet though. All ZR.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 03:49:28 AM
Based on the zone forecasts (hourly weather graphs),  MEG has 3 hour window of gusts > 35 with snow.   

That's a blizzard!   

I wonder if they means the warning is coming.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 03:50:02 AM
I wonder if we will see any upgrades to the warnings from MEG or OHX with the next forecast package? Tishomingo and Prentiss in ne Miss for MEG and OHX's southwestern counties like Wayne and Lawrence would be possibly good candidates for an upgrade based on some projected amounts that I've seen.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: teachingsciatcms on January 22, 2016, 03:50:39 AM
In Northwest Dickson county , starting a Big turn to Sleet and Snow!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 03:53:10 AM
I wonder if we will see any upgrades to the warnings from MEG or OHX with the next forecast package? Tishomingo and Prentiss in ne Miss for MEG and OHX's southwestern counties like Wayne and Lawrence would be possibly good candidates for an upgrade based on some projected amounts that I've seen.
I have no idea but I'm guessing upgrades coming from MEG based on the zones.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on January 22, 2016, 03:53:59 AM
Little Rock ended up with 6" in 3 hours.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 03:54:25 AM
Area of precip just exploding over Tn River and LBL area, filling in the gap and pin wheeling this way. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 03:54:52 AM
Little Rock ended up with 6" in 3 hours.
Crazy!

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sarah on January 22, 2016, 03:55:51 AM
Very heavy sleet and medium to large flakes in eastern Dickson.
.25-.3 inch of ice accumulation previous.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 03:58:02 AM
After a 1/2 inch of ice ,just about a complete change to 100% snow. Roads are a complete disaster.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 03:58:29 AM
We have a .10" of ice and it has completely covered our leftover snow from Wednesday like a blanket.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: vanster67 on January 22, 2016, 04:02:34 AM
Stay safe everyone!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 22, 2016, 04:04:20 AM
Based on the zone forecasts (hourly weather graphs),  MEG has 3 hour window of gusts > 35 with snow.   

That's a blizzard!   

I wonder if they means the warning is coming.

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They did tell me late yesterday afternoon that it was still a possibility. 

Currently temperature profiles are quickly changing north to south.  I'm getting a sleet/freezing rain mixed right now in Olive Branch
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 04:09:32 AM
They did tell me late yesterday afternoon that it was still a possibility. 

Currently temperature profiles are quickly changing north to south.  I'm getting a sleet/freezing rain mixed right now in Olive Branch
Yes,  and the zone forecasts are literally saying blizzard.   This might be a once in a lifetime event here.   

I'm obviously hoping they issue the BZW (as a wx nut)  but I do think it could make a huge difference in keeping people home.   That's a big headline to say you're still going to work regardless. 

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 22, 2016, 04:09:48 AM
[attachimg=1]

Mesoscale Discussion

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 04:12:57 AM
(Attachment Link)

Mesoscale Discussion

Awesomeness   ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 04:13:49 AM
Awesomeness   ::snowman:: ::snowman::
It's Blizzard time,  baby!

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on January 22, 2016, 04:15:51 AM
Yes,  and the zone forecasts are literally saying blizzard.   This might be a once in a lifetime event here.   

I'm obviously hoping they issue the BZW (as a wx nut)  but I do think it could make a huge difference in keeping people home.   That's a big headline to say you're still going to work regardless. 

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I think they may be skeptical at this point of how long of a duration the heaviest snow will occur.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 04:16:32 AM
(Attachment Link)

Mesoscale Discussion

Serious question. When was the last time you saw that area wide for MEG ?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NWTNWeakley on January 22, 2016, 04:17:46 AM
WOW, Heavy sleet has just about all changed to heavy
snow here at my house in Weakley county. Accumulating quick and the wind is whipping.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clint on January 22, 2016, 04:18:17 AM
It's Blizzard time,  baby!

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I would be happy if we could just transition over to snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 22, 2016, 04:18:44 AM
New image out from Nashville but won't post for some reason
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2016, 04:19:01 AM
Sleet beginning to fall, might have had a few flakes mixed in.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NWTNWeakley on January 22, 2016, 04:20:43 AM
I don't post much but I really enjoy reading everyone's posts/ input on everything.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CloudyDay on January 22, 2016, 04:21:47 AM
Any changes for Gallatin in the forecast since last night?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 04:22:34 AM
I think they may be skeptical at this point of how long of a duration the heaviest snow will occur.
All it takes is considerable snow with frequent gusts to 35 and visibilities of 1/4 mile or less for a minimum of 3 hours.   

Many blizzard warnings are issued with much less accumulation and lower rates than what we are projected to get (and those are issued in the midwest/Alaska/etc.)


Regardless,  it's not my decision to make and I don't have their knowledge.   

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 04:24:59 AM
Any changes for Gallatin in the forecast since last night?

Earlier changeover to snow (around 8-9 AM). Still looking like 4-6" of snow for Gallatin.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 04:26:15 AM
All it takes is considerable snow with frequent gusts to 35 and visibilities of 1/4 mile or less for a minimum of 3 hours.   

Many blizzard warnings are issued with much less accumulation and lower rates than what we are projected to get (and those are issued in the midwest/Alaska/etc.)

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I dont know how long it will last but we just had blizzard conditions for about 30 seconds. Complete white out with the blowing snow.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 04:26:44 AM
I dont know how long it will last but we just had blizzard conditions for about 30 seconds. Complete white out with the blowing snow.  ::snowman::
Awesome!   

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on January 22, 2016, 04:27:08 AM
All it takes is considerable snow with frequent gusts to 35 and visibilities of 1/4 mile or less for a minimum of 3 hours.   

Many blizzard warnings are issued with much less accumulation and lower rates than what we are projected to get (and those are issued in the midwest/Alaska/etc.)


Regardless,  it's not my decision to make and I'm don't have their knowledge.   

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The HRRR starts dissolving the heaviest of it over MEM by 12Z. Just saying I think they're too scared to pull the trigger.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 04:32:12 AM
The HRRR starts dissolving it over MEM by 12Z. Just saying I think they're too scared to pull the trigger.
I doubt they are scared.  That's the nature of the business.   If they are really forecasting a blizzard,  then I have full confidence that they will issue the appropriate warning.

I have no reason to doubt them.   MEG has (historically)  been an office that issues based on what they actually believed and not skirted around issues for political reasons.

I'll add that I would be very surprised to see them not issue a blizzard warning and the post-verification show that it was an unwarned blizzard.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hank W on January 22, 2016, 04:33:20 AM
Covington over to all snow. Line is approaching Shelby very quickly.

Erik P in Bartlett has now also changed over. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 04:34:18 AM
Sleet and snow trying to mix in here in Montgomery County. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 04:45:54 AM
Up to .15" of ice. Ugly out there.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bretvol on January 22, 2016, 04:49:32 AM
Jackson has made the flip to all snow. Heavy sleet for the 15 minutes, then just like a light switch heavy snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 04:51:16 AM
Leland just showed exactrax accumulation map and it gave these totals...

Nashville 6.8"
Murfreesboro: 3.8"
Lafayette: 11"!!! ::wow::
Cookeville: 5.1"
Dickson: 9"
Clarksville: 4.6"
Fayetteville: 1"
McMinnville: 1"

That run puts the heaviest band right over the I-65 area.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JTM1988 on January 22, 2016, 04:52:06 AM
Looks like the latest HRRR keeps starts to switch Middle TN over even sooner. Maybe all of the BNA metro area by 8


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 04:52:16 AM
Still got all 3 precip types here but it's trying. I don't think it will be too much longer before we get a total flip. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 04:53:01 AM
MEG has indeed upgraded Tishomingo and Prentiss counties in northeast Mississippi to a warning. Be interesting to see if OHX will follow in upgrading its southwestern counties.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 04:53:33 AM
Leland just showed exactrax accumulation map and it gave these totals...

Nashville 6.8"
Murfreesboro: 3.8"
Lafayette: 11"!!! ::wow::
Cookeville: 5.1"
Dickson: 9"
Clarksville: 4.6"
Fayetteville: 1"
McMinnville: 1"

That run puts the heaviest band right over the I-65 area.
I hope he is somewhat off on CKV. LOL! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 04:54:10 AM
Heavy snow. It changed over at 3:45. We have well over an inch in a hour.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2016, 04:55:58 AM
all snow in arlington getting heavy
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 04:56:54 AM
Leland just showed exactrax accumulation map and it gave these totals...

Nashville 6.8"
Murfreesboro: 3.8"
Lafayette: 11"!!! ::wow::
Cookeville: 5.1"
Dickson: 9"
Clarksville: 4.6"
Fayetteville: 1"
McMinnville: 1"

That run puts the heaviest band right over the I-65 area.

Just to add a couple he had Columbia with 5.1 and Waynesboro with over 8!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 04:59:48 AM
I hope he is somewhat off on CKV. LOL! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

With the ice you've gotten you may not want more!

Post Merge: January 22, 2016, 05:02:00 AM
HRRR, whose temps have been okay but a bit off, show Nashville getting to freezing at 8 AM and snowing by then too.



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 05:02:45 AM
Down to 28 here, going to be a wild day for sure. The snowdome is gong to be crushed by the Tennessee Crusher named Jonah!!!LOL! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: HayleyH on January 22, 2016, 05:03:05 AM
I'm a nurse at Baptist Women's and it is frustrating to listening to everyone talk about how hyped this has been and how it isn't even doing anything.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CloudyDay on January 22, 2016, 05:04:46 AM
Every once in a while I can see a big flake fly through the flood light.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 05:05:31 AM
I hate to poach off of another board but the following was from Birmingham NWS met Matt Grantham:
Quote
It is looking more and more like NW AL may be in the money. Latest RAP does not show the trough really closing off until about 18z and then a deformation band strengthens across NW AL.
That band extends right across middle TN!  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 05:07:43 AM
HEAVY snow here. The kind you can see accumulate.  ::applause::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2016, 05:10:36 AM
heavy blinding snow now ground getting white
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: InMemphis on January 22, 2016, 05:12:08 AM
Transitioning to snow in Germantown.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Stevo on January 22, 2016, 05:12:54 AM
We have sleet and freezing rain here in Hendersonville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: adamrc on January 22, 2016, 05:22:18 AM
I have switched over all sleet/ice pellets in Bellevue.  My deck is already coated and very slick.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Servpro on January 22, 2016, 05:22:42 AM
Lets do this. It has been a long long long time!!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 05:26:58 AM
Lets do this. It has been a long long long time!!!!

What are you seeing in Gallatin?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Servpro on January 22, 2016, 05:29:45 AM
What are you seeing in Gallatin?

Sleet and a light glaze of ice.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 05:31:38 AM
50 percent snow 25% sleet and 25% freezing rain at the moment. 28 degrees. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 05:32:41 AM
Snow in Collierville!

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 05:36:06 AM
Up to 3 inches in 2 hours and still heavy snow.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2016, 05:37:19 AM
ridiculous snow rates at the moment
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 05:38:08 AM
Sleet and snow mixing with rain at my house 2 miles nw of downtown Nashville
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 05:40:20 AM
The latest RAP and HRRR simulated radars are really good for the Nashville metro and most of mid TN. Both pinwheel the heaviest deform band snow across middle TN thru the day. Nashville looks fantastic and even areas south and east of town do really well. If it pans out that way some of those snow maps they are showing on local TV need to be adjusted south of Nashville. Also confirms my thinking that OHX should upgrade Wayne, Lawrence, Giles, Marshall, and Bedford counties to a warning.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2016, 05:41:36 AM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/aad27ca7c7cde31e31bc08c3f8cd6cd5.jpg)(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/a1dfe48465e277156ce9735af3696011.jpg)

SN+
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 05:43:04 AM
Sleet/snow mix. Trees creak when the wind blows, thankfully the freezing rain looks to be over.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 22, 2016, 05:44:47 AM
32.5 degrees here with sleet/snow/rain.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2016, 05:44:57 AM
https://vimeo.com/152690201 (https://vimeo.com/152690201)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 05:47:54 AM
I'm having a hard time figuring out how this is going to work based on radar

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 05:48:06 AM
NWS service updated projections put CKV at 9.9 inches. I hope that's verifies. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: rbowman on January 22, 2016, 05:48:36 AM
Wow mix in north east lebanon!! Omg yay come on 5 inchs
I think you've got that made, but if that heavy deform band sets up shop over mid Tenn I'm going to hold out for a foot!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 05:49:24 AM
I'm having a hard time figuring out how this is going to work based on radar

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Upper level lows are a mindfrick. ITs not like watching a blob of precip move. Precip develops and falls apart as the ULL moves
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2016, 05:51:07 AM
Large area of sleet lifting northward into Davidson County should be nail in the coffin for clear roads before the changeover to snow.

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: jbmac25 on January 22, 2016, 05:52:59 AM
Sleet and snow mixing here in Goodletttsville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 05:52:59 AM
Report from family in Kingston Springs just west of Nashville... all white here, in the past 15 minutes everything is covered


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 05:53:33 AM
Upper level lows are a mindfrick. ITs not like watching a blob of precip move. Precip develops and falls apart as the ULL moves
That's what I'm saying.   We're not even in the deformation band which is where pretty much all of the modeled accumulations were supposed to come from.

I'm looking at that zone over in Arkansas and it appears to be detaching from the main precip shield.  I'm mentally comparing that to all the Sim radars images from models I've seen in the past 24 hours. 

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 05:54:24 AM
Kind of an oxymoron, but the sleet is accumulating pretty rapidly here.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cloudcrash619 on January 22, 2016, 05:54:52 AM
Had freezing rain and sleet earlier, then hit a dry period, and now it's picking back up as snow in OB.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Michael on January 22, 2016, 05:56:13 AM
Changeover to rain has not happened for the upper east tn valley. Been snowing all night. Additional 3" since midnight. Here in Russellville.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 05:58:04 AM
All ready getting accumulation on the roads with a sleet snow mix at my place.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CloudyDay on January 22, 2016, 06:02:54 AM
So, that heavy precipitation moving into the BNA area...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: tuxkilla on January 22, 2016, 06:04:23 AM
Sleet/few flakes just east of franklin.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: SKEW-TIM on January 22, 2016, 06:10:08 AM
WOW! snow has already started in Bellevue, was not expecting it so early.. 
Good size flakes , already covering the ground.guess I am staying put !!!!!

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Brad on January 22, 2016, 06:10:43 AM
Snow on the south side of Davidson. Roads already covered.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on January 22, 2016, 06:10:52 AM
WTVF reporting changeover to snow at their studios downtown. Lelan Statom posted video on Periscope.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Beth on January 22, 2016, 06:11:21 AM
Just got a nixle text saying all primary and secondary roads are quickly icing over and are becoming very hazardous in Dickson. Starting to turn white here too!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: tls37075 on January 22, 2016, 06:12:03 AM
Freezing rain/snow mixture in Hendersonville (Indian Lake Road area).    ::popcorn::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 06:18:28 AM
Looks like the snow line is roughly along HWY 70 in Dickson County, according to CCs on RadarScope, then it turns north.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 06:20:13 AM
Just woke up and looked at the HRRR and radar...and it is already snowing?  Is this the one, is it really going to happen today?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2016, 06:21:09 AM
Almost 100% snow here in Oak Hill, 32F w heavy dusting.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 06:21:42 AM
Just woke up and looked at the HRRR and radar...and it is already snowing?  Is this the one, is it really going to happen today?

Heavy returns south of BNA moving north...is that sleet or snow?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BRUCE on January 22, 2016, 06:22:02 AM
been snowing off n on pretty hard here... ground good white... afraid fixing to get dry slotted... o well... good luck to yall ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matt on January 22, 2016, 06:23:07 AM
Snow pouring in bellevue
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 06:23:53 AM

Heavy returns south of BNA moving north...is that sleet or snow?

South of BNA- rain mixed with sleet probably but the snow line is advancing


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 06:25:25 AM
Whoa- scratch that it's snowing in Nolensville!!!


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 06:25:45 AM
Sleet/snow mix still up this way. Concrete sidewalks and road, which had cleared in spots, are now covered again.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 22, 2016, 06:25:53 AM
Dry and windy in Linden.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 06:26:21 AM
I can confirm sleet mixing in in Almaville (Smyrna). Almost all sleet
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 06:26:59 AM
Getting covered fast here.... on southeast side of Nashville.... not even 6:30 AM.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2016, 06:27:10 AM
Heavy returns south of BNA moving north...is that sleet or snow?
I believe it is sleet transitioning to snow as it enters Davidson. I've already got a half inch.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 06:27:25 AM
Interstates are starting to look rough in Nashville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: DocB on January 22, 2016, 06:27:47 AM
Whoa- scratch that it's snowing in Nolensville!!!

Just made the drive from Nolensville to Smyrna - must have been just ahead of the line as I hit nothing but rain.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 06:27:58 AM
So, to go back to your question snowdog on those heavy returns south of BNA... uh.....
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 06:28:04 AM
Please let Smyrna changeover!   Please finally be a good snow!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 06:28:46 AM
Precip has exploded over the last few frames.  Is it starting to crank?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cliftown04 on January 22, 2016, 06:29:16 AM
Hope this can be a board wide 2+ inch snowstorm.  We really need to try to be positive even though their will be some bigger winners.  So Memphis,   dyersburg, Clarksville are on the board. Nashville is on its way. Plateau is a lock as usual.  Come on linden, waynesboro, lawrenceburg, and the rest of southern middle!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Frank P on January 22, 2016, 06:30:13 AM
Snow and sleet in Franklin near Cool Springs.  Started as rain,  sleet and snow mixture between 5:00 and 6:00... Looks to be mostly light snow right now...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 06:30:58 AM
Man here in Paris, it's pouring snow. I'd say about 2 inches
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 06:31:12 AM
Probably gotten about a half inch in the last hour here. Rates aren't quite as high as I would have expected. But if ratios pick up towards the end, I think 6 is possible in downtown Nashville. Maybe 7.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: rbowman on January 22, 2016, 06:31:19 AM
Snow in Hermitage. It has made it all across Davidson county now. To *+! with the snow dome!

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 06:31:43 AM
I'm about to get a piece of those heavy returns.  I'll report what it is, although I wonder if it will be sleet.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NismoWx on January 22, 2016, 06:32:04 AM
I can confirm sleet mixing in in Almaville (Smyrna). Almost all sleet
Still cold rain at 24 and Almaville, at least IMBY.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 22, 2016, 06:32:34 AM
Closer to an inch on my driveway.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on January 22, 2016, 06:34:19 AM
Total dud so far here in SE Shelby. Grass is barely white and radar trends are depressing. On to work it appears...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NismoWx on January 22, 2016, 06:34:29 AM
Still cold rain at 24 and Almaville, at least IMBY.

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(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/f88d6e25ba5715836f8b2cab84275811.jpg)

I hate using Wunder but just look at it!

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 06:34:35 AM
Still cold rain at 24 and Almaville, at least IMBY.

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You should see sleet soon.  I am all sleet now.  I am 5 miles to the west.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 06:34:39 AM
Very obvious transition line on CC right now. Looks like everyone north and west of a wobbly line from Mt Juliet to Lavergne to Franklin to just south of Fairview is all snow
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Spankadelphia on January 22, 2016, 06:35:56 AM
Just a dusting in Midtown so far.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NismoWx on January 22, 2016, 06:36:17 AM
You should see sleet soon.  I am all sleet now.  I am 5 miles to the west.
I can hear a pellet or two every now and then on the roof but nothing consistent yet. But it's near!

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 22, 2016, 06:36:31 AM
Heavy snow here Bellevue. This thing is just getting cranking. There will be some gaps and such over the next several hours. It looks like the radar is filling in tho.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 06:36:40 AM
Probably gotten about a half inch in the last hour here. Rates aren't quite as high as I would have expected. But if ratios pick up towards the end, I think 6 is possible in downtown Nashville. Maybe 7.

HRRR wants to paint a good line right over BNA.  Also, things stuck fast.  So much for ground temps eating some accums.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: OBstorm89 on January 22, 2016, 06:37:16 AM
Memphis got the shaft. Little Rock did great and so will Nashville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 06:37:52 AM
We have switched back to rain/ip mix in Mount Juliet...I am hoping it goes back to all snow soon. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Stevo on January 22, 2016, 06:38:07 AM
Nothing but snow and lots of it, here in Hendersonville! ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 22, 2016, 06:38:41 AM
Changeover occurred in Hopkinsville at 4am and we already have at least 1-2 inches.  I will get a measurement in about 45 minutes. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on January 22, 2016, 06:40:12 AM
Memphis got the shaft. Little Rock did great and so will Nashville.

Yep. Unreal. I could see areas east doing well to our detriment but LR getting 6" and is getting nothing is just cruel. Literally every direction from here except maybe due south seemed to come out better.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 06:41:09 AM
Just stepped out to inspect the precip here on the north side of Nolensville... 70/30 snow/sleet.  Moderate to heavy rates.  Everything is turning white.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Brad on January 22, 2016, 06:41:24 AM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/4bfe62a462fb87b0fb7a5729b8159905.jpg)

Can already see cars not being able to make it up a slight incline one street behind my house.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 06:41:35 AM
Half dollar sized flakes. Holy crap.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 06:41:50 AM
Total dud so far here in SE Shelby. Grass is barely white and radar trends are depressing. On to work it appears...

It does look like Memphis is already done.  Hard to believe- it all went downhill so quickly. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 06:42:13 AM
Come on dynamic cooling.  Get that sleet out of here.  I want the big one.  I don't want it eating into totals. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 06:43:18 AM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/56575bb1768bfe6ff993a3ec51eb9b74.jpg)
Hwy 79 on the east side of Paris
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 06:43:41 AM
Yep. Unreal. I could see areas east doing well to our detriment but LR getting 6" and is getting nothing is just cruel. Literally every direction from here except maybe due south seemed to come out better.

Oh well, we're used to it. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on January 22, 2016, 06:44:11 AM
All snow now in Hermitage. Cars and porches already turning white.  ::applause::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: aubieman on January 22, 2016, 06:45:17 AM
Can someone post the latest HRRR?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bonzomemphis on January 22, 2016, 06:45:21 AM
It does look like Memphis is already done.  Hard to believe- it all went downhill so quickly.

Give the short term models credit on this one. Several showed us hanging on to mixed precip longer and then the band nearly vanishing as energy moved east from 6-7 am. That's almost exactly what's happening. Our best window for QPF was 2-4 am when I was up earlier. Just didn't change over fast enough.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 06:45:55 AM
All snow now in Hermitage. Cars and porches already turning white.  ::applause::

Its gotta be close to turning over for me.  I'm just to your east and still seeing mostly rain/ip.  The waiting game...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 06:47:55 AM
Give the short term models credit on this one. Several showed us hanging on to mixed precip longer and then the band nearly vanishing as energy moved east from 6-7 am. That's almost exactly what's happening. Our best window for QPF was 2-4 am when I was up earlier. Just didn't change over fast enough.

We were never supposed to get much overnight, though.  We were supposed to catch the trowal but the trowal disappated. 

I'm not sure there's a lot of head scratching going on now but I'm not impressed with any of the computer models on this one. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2016, 06:48:41 AM
Massive snowflakes. Some were probably 1.5" in diameter.. ::cold::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Frank P on January 22, 2016, 06:49:15 AM
All light sleet now in north east Franklin...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Spankadelphia on January 22, 2016, 06:50:49 AM
The saddest words of tongue and pen,

KMEM busted again...
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cloudcrash619 on January 22, 2016, 06:52:56 AM
I knew this had decent bust potential so I was prepared, but its still disappointing. Nice call Spencer Denton  ::)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 06:53:40 AM
The saddest words of tongue and pen,

KMEM busted again...

Modeling showed peak conditions from mid-morning through early afternoon for the metro. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 06:54:08 AM
Would love for he RGEM latest to verify!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: OBstorm89 on January 22, 2016, 06:54:56 AM
Hrrr called this
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 06:56:48 AM
LOL, RGEM with a 15" bullseye over BNA. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 06:58:21 AM
Looks like I'm getting into the dry slot now (if that's the right technical term)... precip has slacked off.  But, plenty more to come.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 06:58:38 AM
LOL- there is an active MD out from SPC for us right now and we busted- this has to be some kind of record last-minute bust:

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0044.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...WRN TN...AND
   NRN/CNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

   VALID 220958Z - 221500Z

   SUMMARY...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF ERN AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
   PRECIPITATION MOVES EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z. HEAVY SNOW
   WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...09Z SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY RAIN IS OCCURRING
   EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF NRN MS...WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
   ONGOING OVER PARTS OF NERN AR AND WRN TN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
   CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF CNTRL INTO ERN AR. A SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR
   TCL/BHM AS OF 09Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AS THE UPPER LOW
   EVIDENT OVER THE ARKLAMISS LIKEWISE MOVES NEWD THIS MORNING.
   CONTINUED LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAA AROUND THE WRN HALF OF THESE FEATURES
   WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...AND
   THEN TO SNOW THROUGH 15Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AR...THE MO
   BOOTHEEL...WRN TN...AND NRN/CNTRL MS.

   FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH/HR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE FOR GENERALLY 1-3 HOURS BEFORE THE
   CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. DUAL-POL CC DATA FROM KNQA DEPICTS A
   LOWERING MELTING LAYER WITH TIME...SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO SLEET
   AND THEN SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BY 11-12Z. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1
   INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN AR INTO
   WRN TN/NRN MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
   LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN CNTRL/ERN AR. IN ADDITION...SOME
   CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
   MCD AREA...AND AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE IS NOT OUT OF THE
   QUESTION. FINALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY END FROM W TO E
   AROUND/AFTER 15Z AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MOVES E OF
   THE REGION.

   ..GLEASON.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34909222 35529205 36389083 36348970 36148858 35198854
               33868893 33118929 32808990 32489079 33749204 34909222
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 22, 2016, 06:59:37 AM
Looks like I'm going to have a while to dry out
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 22, 2016, 07:00:35 AM
Looks like the entirety of Mid Tn gets in on the deformation business.  The low just pivots right over BNA..

(http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012211/tx/hrrr_2016012211_ref_15min_tx.gif)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 07:01:06 AM
The fact we still have, roughly, 8-10 hours of snow still to go makes :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on January 22, 2016, 07:02:29 AM
HUGE flakes in Hermitage. Everything is already covered. Was just rain/sleet an hour ago.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2016, 07:03:25 AM
Closing in on 2" here in Oak Hill. The snow gods have been kind to my back yard thus far.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NismoWx on January 22, 2016, 07:04:01 AM
Definitely still rain, and only rain, I - 24 @ Almaville in Smyrna. Luckily I work about a mile from home..

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 07:05:15 AM
Hoping the heavy banding don't miss me just to the east. Still snowing good here though and good returns still too the south and west of me.  ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 22, 2016, 07:05:26 AM
Interstates are starting to stand still.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 07:05:54 AM
Looks like the entirety of Mid Tn gets in on the deformation business.  The low just pivots right over BNA..

I was asking about that yesterday.  I was really hoping that might happen. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 07:06:19 AM
Looks like the entirety of Mid Tn gets in on the deformation business.  The low just pivots right over BNA..

(http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012211/tx/hrrr_2016012211_ref_15min_tx.gif)

Sure hope that happens.  Still waiting to see even a snow flake here.  Just sleel/ip .
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 07:07:38 AM
HUGE flakes in Hermitage. Everything is already covered. Was just rain/sleet an hour ago.

Yep, just pounding snow between Hermitage and Mount Juliet.  WOW!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 07:08:09 AM
Friend just reported thunder in Sylvan Park
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: shaq725 on January 22, 2016, 07:08:44 AM
Just saw/heard thundersnow on West End  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on January 22, 2016, 07:08:58 AM
I want to congratulate all the ones getting that pretty snow. Nashville you have waited for years. I just hope the Snow gods will send some love to Manchester eventually, but serioulsy, congrats to all of you who have waited and been left out. I hope we get a few flakes before it ends.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: SKEW-TIM on January 22, 2016, 07:09:14 AM
Its pouring the snow here in Bellevue!!!!!!   This is EPIC!!!!   you guys enjoy , stay off the roads


https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1012095658849095&set=a.114957668562903.15143.100001460114738&type=3&theater
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2016, 07:11:26 AM
This is quickly becoming a fairly historic snowfall for Nashville.. we may rival January 16, 2003 on this day.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 07:11:32 AM
Back to just sleet here in Nolensville.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Spankadelphia on January 22, 2016, 07:12:16 AM
This was one of the best set ups we've had in years and it completely busted.  Memphis gets the shaft again.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 07:12:52 AM
Save some of the thundersnow for us! :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mmk3742 on January 22, 2016, 07:13:16 AM
Rain with a little sleet here Smyrna. My friend who lives ten miles away has a coating of snow already.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: DocB on January 22, 2016, 07:13:25 AM
Looks like I'm getting into the dry slot now (if that's the right technical term)... precip has slacked off.  But, plenty more to come.
Your dry slot made it to Smyrna airport - precip all but stopped for a moment. Waiting to see what happens next.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Beth on January 22, 2016, 07:13:56 AM
The wind is really blowing hard here! Hope we keep power as our lines are ice coated!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 22, 2016, 07:14:14 AM
Gave the clouds the stare down until some sleet finally fell out.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 07:14:28 AM
Man so close to great snow.  Please change soon here in Smyrna.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 07:14:48 AM
This was one of the best set ups we've had in years and it completely busted.  Memphis gets the shaft again.

Come on now. Ya'll have gotten several bowling balls over the last couple years with sick totals. Nashville hasn't seen more than 4 inches in 13 years
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on January 22, 2016, 07:14:54 AM
 ::applause::  Happy that Nashville and central TN finally seeing the snow you've waited too long for.  Hope the thumping is memorable and historic. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 07:15:22 AM
The deform band is starting to crank. Right over Nashville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 07:16:56 AM
Your dry slot made it to Smyrna airport - precip all but stopped for a moment. Waiting to see what happens next.

Take a look at the Huntsville radar. The lull will not last long.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 07:18:11 AM
Hoping CKV can get into the heavier returns like Nashville it is building to the south and west of me still. Good snow falling but not super heavy. Congrats Nashville! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 07:18:59 AM
Your dry slot made it to Smyrna airport - precip all but stopped for a moment. Waiting to see what happens next.

There will be breaks.  You will see banding with this, but things are just getting started.  Just sit back and enjoy the show. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 07:19:29 AM
Already 1" of snow imby. With the ice in the trees and on the road we are a mess.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 07:19:36 AM
For discussion of the epic bust in the Mid-South,

I've created a containment thread.  There is no need for us to poison this thread with negativity for those who are (rightfully and deservedly) look to be enjoying a great (perhaps generational) event that has been a long time coming.  Let's remember that our Nashville brethren have suffered arguably more than we have and try to be happy for them.  Our gripe thread is here:

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php?topic=3693.msg208202#msg208202

Let me be the first to say to our friends that are getting a great event:  congratuluations and enjoy it- we love all of you and this community here.  I have conflicting emotions- I'm happy for all of you yet a bit angered and bitter about what happened over this way. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on January 22, 2016, 07:21:11 AM
Way to go Nashville. I think after this storm Chattanooga will be back behind Nashville again in the 5 year running snow totals. This one storm may be enough to erase that deficit. Enjoy it, y'all deserve it.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 07:21:21 AM
There will be breaks.  You will see banding with this, but things are just getting started.  Just sit back and enjoy the show.

Like the sound of it.  I will feel much better when the flakes start flying here.  Been this close before to see it bust.  This might be the closest ever.  Now need to just cross the finish line.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2016, 07:21:51 AM
Mass chaos unfolding on Nashville roads. 440 has been shutdown as well as many main arteries in spots.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on January 22, 2016, 07:23:06 AM
Already 1" of snow imby. With the ice in the trees and on the road we are a mess.

Send to Cookeville quickly,  please.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 07:23:41 AM
Mass chaos unfolding on Nashville roads. 440 has been shutdown as well as many main arteries in spots.

Bad situation unfolding on the interstates. I have a really bad feeling we are going to see people stranded for hours because crews can't clean off the interstates due to congestion.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 22, 2016, 07:24:01 AM
Say 50/50 snow/sleet mix now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 07:24:44 AM
If you look at the HRRR and RAP snow totals...BNA is right in the middle of what looks like the deform band.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 07:25:43 AM
Latest HRRR snow accumulation map.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 07:25:58 AM
Mass chaos unfolding on Nashville roads. 440 has been shutdown as well as many main arteries in spots.

Been there done that in 2003, I feel sorry for those folks.  They won't make that mistake again.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on January 22, 2016, 07:26:33 AM
I got an email at 7:59 am saying that all state offices are now officially closed today. I think that decision should have been made much earlier. Many of the people stuck on the interstates now are probably state employees. Some of them may be critical to snow removal as well.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 07:26:47 AM
Latest HRRR snow accumulation map.

Yes please!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 22, 2016, 07:26:54 AM
Quote
US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
9 mins
Reports of thundersnow in Nashville at 715am! Yep, this storm system is so strong it is producing lightning and thunder while snowing - very rare for Tennessee!

via Facebook
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 07:27:23 AM
If you look at the HRRR and RAP snow totals...BNA is right in the middle of what looks like the deform band.

Yeah, I think you are correct. Wow. ::wow::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 07:29:13 AM
2 inches at my place. Greater than inch an hour rates.

I'm not kidding that I'm literally near tears. This will be more snow than I've seen at my house certainly since I was 12 (Jan 97 in memphis), and maybe since I was 3 (Jan 88 in memphis)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: SKEW-TIM on January 22, 2016, 07:29:29 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxkpzBjUsGY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxkpzBjUsGY)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Farris_TN on January 22, 2016, 07:29:40 AM
I experienced THUNDERSNOW in Goodlettsville at 7:16 AM...It was OUTSTANDING! My wife and kids looked at me like I was crazy HAHAHA
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 07:29:50 AM
Yeah, I think you are correct. Wow. ::wow::

Next couple of hours of radar will tell the tale...this thing looks like it is just starting to crank up.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: SKEW-TIM on January 22, 2016, 07:30:18 AM
2 inches at my place. Greater than inch an hour rates.

I'm not kidding that I'm literally near tears. This will be more snow than I've seen at my house certainly since I was 12 (Jan 97 in memphis), and maybe since I was 3 (Jan 88 in memphis)


this is EPIC for BNA
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: EastTNWX on January 22, 2016, 07:30:46 AM
Latest HRRR snow accumulation map.

It is beyond my comprehension that this storm could treat the valley like that.  Knoxville should not be getting nothing from this storm.  I hope Nash gets 7", but I hope the HRRR is wrong.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2016, 07:31:12 AM
3" on the old sundail here in Oak Hill as of 7:30am..
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 07:31:56 AM
HRRR doesn't start moving the snow out of Nashville/I-65 corridor until 3 pm.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 22, 2016, 07:32:05 AM

I got an email at 7:59 am saying that all state offices are now officially closed today. I think that decision should have been made much earlier. Many of the people stuck on the interstates now are probably state employees. Some of them may be critical to snow removal as well.
. My wife is one of them in Nashville.  She was already at work and now struggling to get home!


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JayCee on January 22, 2016, 07:33:18 AM
2 inches at my place. Greater than inch an hour rates.

I'm not kidding that I'm literally near tears. This will be more snow than I've seen at my house certainly since I was 12 (Jan 97 in memphis), and maybe since I was 3 (Jan 88 in memphis)

I think most on this board understand your pain, and the pure pleasure you're feeling right now.   ;)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 07:33:58 AM
3" on the old sundail here in Oak Hill as of 7:30am..

WOW!! Nowhere close to that just east of BNA. We have maybe an inch. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 07:34:24 AM
Looks like the heavier returns are going to barely miss here, oh so close. maybe we get a little lucky. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 07:35:19 AM
. My wife is one of them in Nashville.  She was already at work and now struggling to get home!


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I hope she makes it home! It ticks me off when they do stuff like this. They don't give their workers adequate notice.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 07:40:37 AM
I hope she makes it home! It ticks me off when they do stuff like this. They don't give their workers adequate notice.
Memphis...

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 07:42:45 AM
Been snowing and sleeting off and on here... as advertised by some of the modeling, I'm on the accumulation gradient on the southeast side with just a coating so far.  Congrats on the more significant accumulations in town!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 07:45:25 AM
Congrats Charles, Snowman, and Snowdog you guys enjoy. I got 3 inches already. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Lcwthrnut on January 22, 2016, 07:45:59 AM
Moderate sleet in hohenwald. Hoping this will transition quickly!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 22, 2016, 07:48:06 AM
All snow here now. Been snowing softball sized... ok half dollar size flakes for about 15 minutes. Healthy dusting already. Hope it keeps it up and I don't fall back into the giant break to my west.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 22, 2016, 07:49:01 AM
2 inches at my place. Greater than inch an hour rates.

I'm not kidding that I'm literally near tears. This will be more snow than I've seen at my house certainly since I was 12 (Jan 97 in memphis), and maybe since I was 3 (Jan 88 in memphis)


Me too man, I am shedding a tear. This is just beautiful, we have been waiting for this forever!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 07:49:14 AM
Yes.  Congrats on those getting snow.  As for here in Smyrna it is like watching paint dry.  Returns show it should be turning soon.  Would be very cruel if it does not.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NismoWx on January 22, 2016, 07:49:36 AM
Had about 2 minutes of sleet just now.. Then it stopped.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 22, 2016, 07:49:45 AM
Almost 4" here!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 07:50:36 AM
I am finally under one of the heavier bands and I can't see the church just 100 yards behind our house. Unreal.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 07:51:52 AM
Had about 2 minutes of sleet just now.. Then it stopped.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Moderate sleet here now.  Tiny flakes appear to be mixed in.  Could be just ice crystals. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2016, 07:52:36 AM
Man hope it turns big for Nashville. If ANY CITY has had crumbs since 2003 it's you guys. Keep up the great posts!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 07:53:05 AM
Looking at soundings for BNA, ratio's could be quite a bit better as go later in the day.  Will help squeeze this sucker for all it's worth. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: tntwilight on January 22, 2016, 07:53:24 AM
Ok, help me out here. I'm seeing some gaps (some pretty significant) in the radar, especially in western middle. Is this something that's going to change or is that to be expected?

Just wondering.

Thanks for any information. :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 22, 2016, 07:53:48 AM
I am finally under one of the heavier bands and I can't see the church just 100 yards behind our house. Unreal.

Insane huh, those bands have been training of Clay and Myself over the last hour. We are 1"+ rates here at the moment. Clay are you getting any fine flakes mixed in?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 22, 2016, 07:53:48 AM
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 07:56:11 AM
Insane huh, those bands have been training of Clay and Myself over the last hour. We are 1"+ rates here at the moment. Clay are you getting any fine flakes mixed in?

Hopefully these bands will pivot over Smyrna.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 07:58:56 AM
This thing just training right up I-65.  I still can't believe it. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 22, 2016, 07:59:41 AM
Still waiting on the changeover in north Murfreesboro. Come on warmer air, get the **** out!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 07:59:54 AM
Insane huh, those bands have been training of Clay and Myself over the last hour. We are 1"+ rates here at the moment. Clay are you getting any fine flakes mixed in?

It is incredible and radar shows the "hole" filling in over Murfreesboro and moving up this way!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 08:01:23 AM
Ok, help me out here. I'm seeing some gaps (some pretty significant) in the radar, especially in western middle. Is this something that's going to change or is that to be expected?

Just wondering.

Thanks for any information. :)

Upper level lows and the convective banding that comes with them is hard to predict. As it moves closer, it should fill in.

News 2 has been knocked off the air.

Thundersnow at my house
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Brad on January 22, 2016, 08:01:25 AM
Thundersnow just heard from Crieve Hall. Sounded like it was to the north.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 08:01:45 AM
It is incredible and radar shows the "hole" filling in over Murfreesboro and moving up this way!

Last few frames of radar make me confident this thing is getting cranked. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 08:02:34 AM
Channel 2 WKRN was just briefly knocked off the air by a lightning strike!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Volduff64 on January 22, 2016, 08:03:05 AM
Serious thundersnow in east Nashville
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 22, 2016, 08:03:25 AM
Channel 2 WKRN was just briefly knocked off the air by a lightning strike!!!

WOW!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 08:03:52 AM
Channel two just got knocked off line from thunder snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: tntwilight on January 22, 2016, 08:04:25 AM

Upper level lows and the convective banding that comes with them is hard to predict. As it moves closer, it should fill in.

News 2 has been knocked off the air.

Thundersnow at my house
Thanks for the response. Appreciate you taking the time.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on January 22, 2016, 08:04:33 AM
Channel 2 WKRN was just briefly knocked off the air by a lightning strike!!!

I thought I heard thunder just now!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 08:05:06 AM
At 2" up here! This is SN+. Amazing.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 08:05:11 AM
Still waiting on the changeover in north Murfreesboro. Come on warmer air, get the **** out!

Trying to stay positive.  Please.  Heavy sleet here now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: jbarnby on January 22, 2016, 08:05:50 AM
Thunder in NE Nashville.  4" near Opryland
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 08:10:10 AM
It is staring to snow in Alamaville near Williamson/840 line!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mmk3742 on January 22, 2016, 08:10:35 AM
Finally switched over to all sleet in Smyrna. Come on snow.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 08:10:47 AM
about to get something heavy here according to radar


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on January 22, 2016, 08:11:00 AM
We have 36F here in Lascassas with light rain.  The temperature has been steady since midnight, however, the wind has really picked up since 6:00AM.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on January 22, 2016, 08:11:37 AM
All of this TSSN is going to enhance snow totals significantly where it is occurring. I bet we see many double digit totals from I40 north in the Nashville area.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 08:12:06 AM
We appear to have lift off!  Hope it stays snow!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Farris_TN on January 22, 2016, 08:12:21 AM
OUTSTANDING!!!

Had THUNDERSNOW and LIGHTNING in Goodlettsville at 8:08 AM!!!!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 22, 2016, 08:12:46 AM
Snowing like crazy in spring hill
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on January 22, 2016, 08:13:49 AM
please share the love down here!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 08:14:13 AM
Wow on images coming off local media... just wow.  The city is to its knees just like 2003


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Beth on January 22, 2016, 08:14:33 AM
It's like a white out here in Dickson. Very heavy snow right now!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 22, 2016, 08:14:40 AM
Over 3 inches of snow(as of 45 mins ago) with white out conditions being reported at times across the area in the Hopkinsville area.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 08:14:52 AM
Well hello snow!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 22, 2016, 08:15:42 AM
Serious question...my wife is stuck on Hwy 70 in Hermitage. We live in Mount Juliet.  What do I do?????


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on January 22, 2016, 08:16:50 AM
Congrats to everyone that is cashing in!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 08:17:02 AM
Serious question...my wife is stuck on Hwy 70 in Hermitage. We live in Mount Juliet.  What do I do?????


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Tell her to get a hotel room. And do it fast. They will fill up.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 08:17:09 AM
Not as much here as hoptown, we need to get under a heavier band. Downtown looked like they were under a good one earlier, but the western part of the county missed out so far. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 22, 2016, 08:17:29 AM
Not one near her. She is near the Save A Lot


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 08:18:13 AM
4k NAM was generous with amounts around BNA with QPF totals. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 08:18:22 AM
I can not believe this is happening!  Little snow flakes with some sleet still but turning white!  Heck Yeah!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 22, 2016, 08:18:53 AM
We're mixing rain & snow in north Boro now. Hoping for a fast changeover.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on January 22, 2016, 08:20:26 AM
GO BORO!! Looks like you might cash in!!!  Please bring it a little further!!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NismoWx on January 22, 2016, 08:20:35 AM
Snow at Almaville and 24...FINALLY!

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on January 22, 2016, 08:21:13 AM
So this is what a deformation band looks like!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Beth on January 22, 2016, 08:21:19 AM
Not one near her. She is near the Save A Lot


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They telling people that if they are stuck in their cars to stay there until help comes. But I guess if Save a lot is open she might should go in it.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 08:22:33 AM
Snowing hard in Nolensville now


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 22, 2016, 08:23:02 AM
Snow mixing in with the rain now South of the 'Boro.

AND...submitted my first mPING report because I JUST finally got a smart phone. :D
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on January 22, 2016, 08:24:05 AM
Serv Crow you are offering help. Just push it to Manchester!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 08:25:38 AM
Maybe  this will be the storm that hits Nash/Boro /Frank & Manchester for once.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: SKEW-TIM on January 22, 2016, 08:25:51 AM
bout 2 1/2 inches right now in the Bellevue,,,big thick heavy snow ,perfect Sledding/skiing snow...wish I were in the Mountains right now
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 08:26:17 AM
Nashville Radar showing yellow and red moving up I-65 some intense snow bands.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 22, 2016, 08:26:27 AM
Serv Crow you are offering help. Just push it to Manchester!!!

I am pushing as hard as I can, but I'm old and I'll need some help.  ::bacon:: ::bacon:: ::bacon::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CloudyDay on January 22, 2016, 08:26:45 AM
South of Gallatin

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 08:26:54 AM
Congrats to all the Nashville folks. Looks like you will finally be in the sweet spot for a big one. Way overdue. Still just rain here in Lewisburg.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 22, 2016, 08:27:11 AM
Can't find my ruler atm. Beer for scale!Redneck Ruler[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 22, 2016, 08:27:31 AM
sleet mixing in in Siegel area in Mboro
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 08:27:53 AM
Someone from Nashville up into Franklin, KY are going to get double digit snowfall. That area has been getting very heavy snow for well over an hour now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: acollinkee on January 22, 2016, 08:28:13 AM
 ::bacon:: Almost 4in in Goodlettsville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Vols1 on January 22, 2016, 08:28:49 AM
Will more develope or is this the main show?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 08:28:59 AM
Maybe a tick under 4 inches right now. Somehow I can't find a ruler. Its  75% of the length of my middle finger to wrist.

Geez.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 08:29:07 AM
Snowing hardest it's been all morning in Nolensville right now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dapig on January 22, 2016, 08:29:35 AM
Scot I sent you a pm. Are you talking about save a lot just inside Wilson county?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 08:29:58 AM
5" inches of snow reported in Inglewood in East Nashville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: 10ec_dad on January 22, 2016, 08:30:51 AM
Snow has tapered of in Brentwood.

Radar looks dry to the south and west.

Any reason to think more snow will fall today?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 08:31:29 AM
Back to mostly sleet in here. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on January 22, 2016, 08:31:43 AM
We have a rain/snow mix here in Lascassas now.  The temperature has dropped to 35.5F.

We picked up 1.11 inches of rain overnight by the way.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 08:32:09 AM
Nashville to Bowling Green looks to be the jackpot. Its going to be huge. As the low pivots it sure looks like that band will just sit there. Its very hard to be jealous of Nashville because of all the strikeouts over the years for you.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Livdirt on January 22, 2016, 08:32:59 AM
Just switched to heavy snow and sleet in algood just north of cookeville
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 08:33:04 AM
Snow has tapered of in Brentwood.

Radar looks dry to the south and west.

Any reason to think more snow will fall today?

Yes, you are going to get pounded!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 08:34:22 AM
Nashville to Bowling Green looks to be the jackpot. Its going to be huge. As the low pivots it sure looks like that band will just sit there. Its very hard to be jealous of Nashville because of all the strikeouts over the years for you.

Agree.  Congrats to them.  It really sucks knowing less 20miles is a good snow.  Hope we cash out for some in the Boro.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 08:34:42 AM
Snow has tapered of in Brentwood.

Radar looks dry to the south and west.

Any reason to think more snow will fall today?

There's a small hole around there, but I still see quite a bit of activity on radar to your south and west.  As the low continues to rotate and pivot around, you can anticipate bands of snow to continue developing.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: 10ec_dad on January 22, 2016, 08:35:17 AM
Yes, you are going to get pounded!

As fun as that sounds, the radar does not show any more in the pipeline.

Do you expect it to rotate from the NW?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 08:35:25 AM
Just east of BNA, we have been in a lull for the past 15 to 20 minutes, while it has been pounding in Nashville.  Have around 2", where BNA has 4".  Shows you what 10 to 15 miles can mean in these bands.  Where they set-up and how long you can stay under them.  About to start back up here. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 08:37:19 AM
As fun as that sounds, the radar does not show any more in the pipeline.

Do you expect it to rotate from the NW?
Not sure what radar you are looking at. But that area looks great to me.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 08:37:23 AM

As fun as that sounds, the radar does not show any more in the pipeline.

Do you expect it to rotate from the NW?

What radar are you looking at?


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[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bossfan2000 on January 22, 2016, 08:37:31 AM
Finally switched over to snow here around 10 minutes ago. Pouring snow now (Rock Springs Rd between Nolensville and Smyrna)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 22, 2016, 08:39:46 AM
Total changeover now. Some sleet mixing with large snowflakes. It looks like north Murfreesboro finally got pushed over the edge.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: DocB on January 22, 2016, 08:40:14 AM
Snowing hardest it's been all morning in Nolensville right now.
Made the drive back from Smyrna to Nolensville. Went from rain, the slush @ I -24, then to all snow and now have about 1/2"+ here at the house.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dave R on January 22, 2016, 08:40:29 AM
Right at 2" in Newsom Station area of Bellevue
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: aubieman on January 22, 2016, 08:40:39 AM
Yep, Mboro finally getting some love.
(http://mrwgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Michael-Cera-Is-Excited-Things-Are-Finally-Happening-On-Arrested-Development.gif)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cliftown04 on January 22, 2016, 08:40:46 AM
Finally snow in northern Wayne.  Hoping for a good pivot!!!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on January 22, 2016, 08:40:59 AM
Just east of BNA, we have been in a lull for the past 15 to 20 minutes, while it has been pounding in Nashville.  Have around 2", where BNA has 4".  Shows you what 10 to 15 miles can mean in these bands.  Where they set-up and how long you can stay under them.  About to start back up here.

There's another band coming from the south, heading right for you.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 08:41:34 AM
Approaching 6" of snow in White House! Easily on their way to double digits.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 08:44:10 AM
Finally switched over to snow here around 10 minutes ago. Pouring snow now (Rock Springs Rd between Nolensville and Smyrna)

Thanks for update.  Means I should see some maybe heavier snow soon.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WH Jason on January 22, 2016, 08:46:54 AM
The snow here in White House is insanity!  Amazing stuff!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 08:47:27 AM
5 inches at my house now. measured. forgot I had a measuring tape.

I think north nashville could make a run at double digits
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 08:48:23 AM
The snow here in White House is insanity!  Amazing stuff!

Sumner county for the win! Any reports out of Hickman, Lewis, or Maury?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: glg72 on January 22, 2016, 08:49:22 AM
Steady snow in Mt. Pleasant (SW Maury) at 32 degrees
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Cody on January 22, 2016, 08:49:42 AM

Sumner county for the win! Any reports out of Hickman, Lewis, or Maury?

I've got .5 in Perry county. Light snow falling and a dry slot to our west. I see us getting maybe an inch. Will the west side of this build up any?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ENBP on January 22, 2016, 08:50:03 AM
As fun as that sounds, the radar does not show any more in the pipeline.

Do you expect it to rotate from the NW?

Loop the southern MS valley radar: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

That will give you a much better sense of the rotation of the precip with the ULL. This is not near over. Congrats.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 08:50:13 AM
5 inches at my house now. measured. forgot I had a measuring tape.

I think north nashville could make a run at double digits

Congrats Mundie!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: tls37075 on January 22, 2016, 08:50:38 AM
About 4-5 inches in Hendersonville so far. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 08:50:47 AM
Up to 6 inches now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 08:50:56 AM
TDOT or Public Works (not sure which) official said in interview on WKRN, "We're basically treading water right now" and we should expect no significant improvement on the roads until it stops snowing.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CT_Yankee on January 22, 2016, 08:51:40 AM
Still rain in at my location.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Lcwthrnut on January 22, 2016, 08:51:46 AM
I live in Lewis. Got light snowfall here. The grass is not covered but the roads are. Hoping we don't dry slot.  :-\
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: xuxa999 on January 22, 2016, 08:52:03 AM
Just measured over 6.5 inches in Forest Hills
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ENBP on January 22, 2016, 08:52:20 AM
5 inches at my house now. measured. forgot I had a measuring tape.

I think north nashville could make a run at double digits

There looks like a wide swath from parts of SW Davidson around to where you are to NW Davidson that look to be in a sweet spot. Very well deserved after the years of snow drought that you have put up with.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mmk3742 on January 22, 2016, 08:52:31 AM
All snow but very very light. Nothing in the ground yet except sleet in Smyrna near Almaville/old Nashville hwy.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on January 22, 2016, 08:52:40 AM
We have gone back to all rain here in Lascassas... just can't seem to make the transition this far east.  The temperature is 35.5F.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 08:52:46 AM
Sitting in these breaks for so long makes ya anxious.  Check window, check radar, repeat.   :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 08:53:49 AM
Well we still have moderate snow here and have officially reached 1/2 inch of ice and 6 inches  of snow.  ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: harlequin on January 22, 2016, 08:54:12 AM
Congrats guys! I didn't quite make it to an inch, but at least that's something.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 22, 2016, 08:54:51 AM
Anywhere from 3-4 inches in Hopkinsville with 9 inch drifts.  Congrats Nashville I'm happy for you all.  One snow shield down one more to go.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 22, 2016, 08:55:40 AM
I haven't been out yet to measure but I'm in North Franklin where until a few minutes ago it'd been snowing non stop since about 6:30.  Looks to be about 2 inches so far. 


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 08:55:50 AM
Sitting in these breaks for so long makes ya anxious.  Check window, check radar, repeat.   :)

Same for me.  Lol. Snowing here now lightly.  Need a fix of some heavy snow!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 08:56:06 AM
Even the lighter returns are still putting down some decent snow. Unbelievable storm unfolding for Nashville and parts of middle TN. Enjoy it!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 22, 2016, 08:57:22 AM
You can clearly see the pivot right...over...BNA.

(http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012213/tx/hrrr_2016012213_ref_15min_tx.gif)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: MylesDane on January 22, 2016, 08:58:00 AM
Still rain in at my location.

I'm by genesco and it's all sleet. Son lives in college grove and snowing hard there.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 22, 2016, 08:59:40 AM
Lol I think it'd be safe for Justin Bruce to take my area out of 5-9" expected snow. I have maybe 1/4" with the dry slot approaching.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: c0lbizzle on January 22, 2016, 09:02:27 AM
6 inches and Heavy Snow in the city of Goodlettsville!  ::flag::   ::snowman::

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Weazel on January 22, 2016, 09:02:44 AM
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/79195430706d14682324095214a9a3b4.jpg)

3 inches plus in Lyles now. Been heavy for about an hour and a half.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: joemomma on January 22, 2016, 09:04:49 AM
Cookeville and Monterey have transitioned over to snow finally.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 09:05:09 AM
You can clearly see the pivot right...over...BNA.

(http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012213/tx/hrrr_2016012213_ref_15min_tx.gif)

Yes. You can  also clearly see what models were trying to show and having problems with. The transfer to the coast. You can see the deform and pivot over this way dying out and the new one over Nashville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 22, 2016, 09:05:19 AM
OHX's snowfall forecast has already been achieved for Nashville, up to 5". I think they can safely revise that up to 7-10".
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 09:06:10 AM
Moderate snow now!  I am like a kid!  Snow dance!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 09:08:38 AM
My grids still say 7-11 inches, we seem to be barely missing the big returns just to the east. Unless we get under one of them I don't see it. Good snow though. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mmk3742 on January 22, 2016, 09:09:08 AM
Moderate snow now!  I am like a kid!  Snow dance!
Matthew we must be really close. Your weather is my weather lol.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on January 22, 2016, 09:10:58 AM
All of a sudden, we have graupel.  There must be some complicated **** going on  overhead here in Lascassas. Temperature is 35.5F.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on January 22, 2016, 09:11:29 AM
Only light snow here in Jackson, which I'm okay with because I didn't want "near blizzard conditions" that would have probably knocked the power out.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dapig on January 22, 2016, 09:12:00 AM
Scot glad the club could help get you wife home.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 09:12:30 AM
Sweet spot looks to be between Clarksville and BNA...they haven't seen a break since it started.  Just east of BNA I just can't seem to stay under a band.  I'm seeing more breaks than snow.  For now.  I'm guessing some of those better dynamics will move east...or at least I hope so. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 09:14:44 AM
Sleet and snow mixing in Lewisburg.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 09:16:15 AM
Rough guessimate of an inch here on the north side of Nolensville... or Brentiochaneridgeville, if you will.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 09:18:15 AM
Sweet spot looks to be between Clarksville and BNA...they haven't seen a break since it started.  Just east of BNA I just can't seem to stay under a band.  I'm seeing more breaks than snow.  For now.  I'm guessing some of those better dynamics will move east...or at least I hope so.

Looking like the last few frames shows the returns south of Murfreesboro are more solid instead of "bandy"
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 09:20:06 AM
Just hoping here in Almaville.  We stay in this heavy band for awhile.  Please!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: kristin on January 22, 2016, 09:20:54 AM
Seeing snow flakes for the first time here in Crossville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 09:21:14 AM
2 inch an hour rates right now. snow+ with huge flakes. Bigger than half dollars at times
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 09:21:28 AM
Charles just re measured it up to 8 Inches.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 22, 2016, 09:22:07 AM
BNA is officially closed. No flights arriving or departing until further notice.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 09:22:47 AM
Charles just re measured it up to 8 Inches.

You guys will end up with almost a foot. Unreal!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on January 22, 2016, 09:24:49 AM
Asking the experts a question...Will it honestly change over to any snow in southern mid tn?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 09:25:40 AM
All sleet now in Lewisburg. Still a lot of juice headed up I-65, but we need this thing to slow down and pivot. Its definitely dryer in sw middle TN than was forecast on the short-range models this morning.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on January 22, 2016, 09:26:49 AM
[attachimg=1]

Cookeville Spotter Cam - we are only about 40 minutes into the snow falling here...what a mess.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: randallarms on January 22, 2016, 09:27:02 AM
I know this might be a stupid question, but whats the 4 hour outlook for Dickson? another 2-3"? ive got employees still at work, trying to make a safe decision :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 09:28:09 AM
Radar returns coming up from Murfreesboro are looking much better for you and I snowdog! :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on January 22, 2016, 09:28:28 AM
Cookeville and Monterey have transitioned over to snow finally.

Way earlier than anticipated....
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 09:29:37 AM
Finally back under heavy returns here.  Boy you can tell when it starts...just huge flakes pounding.  Amazing. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 09:30:03 AM
Some parts of the city are probably going to surpass Jan '03.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Adam on January 22, 2016, 09:30:41 AM
Asking the experts a question...Will it honestly change over to any snow in southern mid tn?
Southern Middle Tennessee, (West of I-65), will transition in the next two hours. Lawrenceburg is at 32 with light freezing drizzle because we are not under a convective band.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 09:31:05 AM
Radar returns coming up from Murfreesboro are looking much better for you and I snowdog! :)

You been in teh same lull?  It stopped here for a while then had real tiny flakes for a while...now back under heavy rates. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 09:31:26 AM
Some parts of the city are probably going to surpass Jan '03.

Yeah. This looks like it is going to be historic for some areas.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 09:32:36 AM
I'm in a lull, but it looks like the gap is filling in from the south.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 09:32:57 AM
You been in teh same lull?  It stopped here for a while then had real tiny flakes for a while...now back under heavy rates.

Yeah. We had a 30 minute lull of just small flakes, but still coming down at a decent rate. Now we are back to very large flakes. I love the way radar looks downstream for us.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 09:33:09 AM
Some parts of the city are probably going to surpass Jan '03.

I measured 6 inches 45 minutes ago. Definitely at 7 now unless there has been some compacting.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clay on January 22, 2016, 09:33:22 AM
BNA is making a run for January 2003.. ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: DocB on January 22, 2016, 09:34:01 AM
I'm in a lull, but it looks like the gap is filling in from the south.
Yep - going outside to play during the lull now. Measure about 3/4" just west of town.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 09:34:20 AM
I measured 6 inches 45 minutes ago. Definitely at 7 now unless there has been some compacting.

You're just about at Jan '03 levels now.  The highest totals from that day were 7-9".
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 09:34:45 AM
Radar returns coming up from Murfreesboro are looking much better for you and I snowdog! :)

Wondering if being closer to transition line will enhance the snow here?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 09:36:00 AM
Giant flakes flying at a Heavy rate.
 ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 09:36:24 AM
You're just about at Jan '03 levels now.  The highest totals from that day were 7-9".

88 is in play as well. Maybe 96? I think we're close to this being historic for Nashville proper
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 09:37:56 AM
Wondering if being closer to transition line will enhance the snow here?

I think returns are strengthen because the system is gaining strength before it makes the transfer to the coast and smashes NC and the mid-Atlantic states.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 22, 2016, 09:38:08 AM
The heavy band is pretty much running up and down I-65 from Nashville metro up towards Bowling Green.  You need to evaluate your state in life if you are even thinking about non-essential travel between Nashville and Louisville on I-65.  Of course I-65 is closed north of Cave City anyway.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: rbowman on January 22, 2016, 09:40:51 AM
Hearing some rumbles of thunder in Hermitage with very heavy snow now.

Sent from my LG-H901 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Andy on January 22, 2016, 09:41:06 AM
I am so happy for you guys!!! We are dry slotted in Erwin Tn at this time, but I am fairly confident our time is coming!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: SuperCell on January 22, 2016, 09:42:19 AM
All snow now in Woodbury. The hills to the north, east, and south are snow covered already.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WH Jason on January 22, 2016, 09:43:09 AM
Eight inches on the ground here in White House!

 ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Post Merge: January 22, 2016, 09:43:50 AM
And it is literally snowing so hard right now I can barely see the house across the street from me.  It's just pouring.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Irishmagic on January 22, 2016, 09:45:47 AM
Congratulations to all who are getting snow from Chattanooga!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: aubieman on January 22, 2016, 09:46:03 AM
NWS now has Mboro at 4-9 inches today:

Today Rain and snow, becoming all snow after noon. High near 36. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Tonight Snow. Low around 24. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 09:46:20 AM
Starting to get some drifting snow going on here. You know you got some good snow when that starts to happen.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 22, 2016, 09:47:09 AM
OHX just upped totals...8" for CKV/BNA and 6" for Murfreesboro.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 22, 2016, 09:48:23 AM
OHX just upped totals...8" for CKV/BNA and 6" for Murfreesboro.

We're around 7 here in green hills!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 09:49:17 AM
Still snowing good here. Probably a solid 5 inches.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 09:50:09 AM
OHX just upped totals...8" for CKV/BNA and 6" for Murfreesboro.
Wow! They just upped them for Maury and Marshall to 3-7", not sure we'll get there. No accum here at all yet in Lewisburg.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: spanarkle on January 22, 2016, 09:51:30 AM
Paris with 5 inches and I am 22 miles south with not even an inch...wow
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 09:52:31 AM
They've yanked Giles up to 3-5 as well?? ::pondering:: ::scratch::

Upgrade to a warning on the way??
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cgauxknox on January 22, 2016, 09:52:48 AM
It's great to see all the excitement from Middle TN.  With the earlier than expected changeover for so many places is that expected to continue for East TN?  They haven't changed forecasts here, but it seems that everybody else has gotten into cold air and all snow hours ahead of what was forecast even this morning.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on January 22, 2016, 09:53:14 AM
We have light snow here in Lascassas now with a temperature of 35F.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: rrmeadows67 on January 22, 2016, 09:53:51 AM
How much more snow can we possibly see in the gallatin/hendersonville area for the rest of the day?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 09:55:27 AM
[attachimg=3]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 22, 2016, 09:58:18 AM
I really want to believe we will get 6 inches, but it's having a hard time accumulating in mboro, roads are still just wet in my neighbordhood and i have a dusting
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on January 22, 2016, 10:00:15 AM
2.5" in Antioch. Stuck between bands here. Still very happy to see what I've seen
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 10:01:11 AM
Were in a dry slot right now.  Please move along.  Need more snow!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: EastTNWX on January 22, 2016, 10:02:04 AM
It's great to see all the excitement from Middle TN.  With the earlier than expected changeover for so many places is that expected to continue for East TN?  They haven't changed forecasts here, but it seems that everybody else has gotten into cold air and all snow hours ahead of what was forecast even this morning.

Not likely, our temps are actually rising slowly.  The discussion from this AM says they likely overreached on the warnings/advisories. 

I would be ecstatic for an earlier changeover, but we are still looking at an 8-9pm changeover. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 22, 2016, 10:02:23 AM
Latest map from OHX kills Murfreesboro back down to maybe 3" at best.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 10:03:05 AM
I really want to believe we will get 6 inches, but it's having a hard time accumulating in mboro, roads are still just wet in my neighbordhood and i have a dusting

Yeah... I think the amounts we see start dropping off much southeast of Nashville.  I have a feeling I'll be lucky to get 2" here in Nolensville... depending on what this activity over the next couple of hours does.

It's going to be hard to approach what Nashville proper has seen at this point.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 22, 2016, 10:03:32 AM
Thanks to CodyPC for making me feel even better about today. He sent me a picture from his in-laws house who live about 4 miles from me as a crow flies and they have about 3 1/2-4".... I have maybe 1/2".. Just the way it is... ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Heath22 on January 22, 2016, 10:03:43 AM
I really want to believe we will get 6 inches, but it's having a hard time accumulating in mboro, roads are still just wet in my neighbordhood and i have a dusting

What part of the Boro you in? Here in Blackman area, ground is white and roads are slushy and starting to turn white.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: aubieman on January 22, 2016, 10:04:53 AM
Latest map from OHX kills Murfreesboro back down to maybe 3" at best.

Where are you seeing this?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CT_Yankee on January 22, 2016, 10:05:33 AM
Actually, the very latest is disappointing for anyone south of I-40/E of I-65. 
[attach=1]


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Cody on January 22, 2016, 10:06:29 AM

Thanks to CodyPC for making me feel even better about today. He sent me a picture from his in-laws house who live about 4 miles from me as a crow flies and they have about 3 1/2-4".... I have maybe 1/2".. Just the way it is... ::bangingheadintowall::

Hang in there bud lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: micahp on January 22, 2016, 10:07:40 AM
Where are you seeing this?


I'm 2 miles north of Walter Hill, point and click has me 5 - 10 inches.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Sbeagles on January 22, 2016, 10:08:21 AM
Hang in there bud lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Heck with it. I'm going fishing.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 22, 2016, 10:09:16 AM
What part of the Boro you in? Here in Blackman area, ground is white and roads are slushy and starting to turn white.

Siegel area.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 10:09:27 AM
The modeling was spot on for this event as far as setting up the tight gradients across middle TN.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: kristin on January 22, 2016, 10:10:34 AM
Actually, the very latest is disappointing for anyone south of I-40/E of I-65. 
(Attachment Link)

 ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: 10ec_dad on January 22, 2016, 10:11:22 AM
Actually, the very latest is disappointing for anyone south of I-40/E of I-65. 
(Attachment Link)

That looks about right. The heavy snow was exciting this morning in Williamson County but has calmed down considerably since 8 a.m.. As much as I would like to get "dumped on", as earlier suggested by others, it's just not going to happen in this neck of the woods. Still, it is a great snow to enjoy.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 10:11:28 AM
Actually, the very latest is disappointing for anyone south of I-40/E of I-65. 
I'm not sure what is going on. The point and click snow forecast is way up for parts of Lawrence, Giles, Maury, Marshall, and Rutherford counties???

Switched to all snow in Lewisburg.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ENBP on January 22, 2016, 10:11:37 AM
The modeling was spot on for this event as far as setting up the tight gradients across middle TN.

Yeah, it's gonna be boom or bust if that low pivots near your location.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 10:12:15 AM
Snowfall has picked up again in Nolensville... hopefully I can up my total... getting more solid coverage in the yard, although the grass is not yet covered.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: rrmeadows67 on January 22, 2016, 10:12:42 AM
Any chance we get a suprise and this keeps growing on the back end and last longer than expected in middle tenn?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 22, 2016, 10:13:14 AM
I'm not sure what is going on. The point and click snow forecast is way up for parts of Lawrence, Giles, Maury, Marshall, and Rutherford counties???

Switched to all snow in Lewisburg.
You and others need to realize updating a graphic is much faster than updating pinpoint/zone forecasts in the system. That takes hours to refine and execute before being published to the public.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Lcwthrnut on January 22, 2016, 10:13:47 AM
Saw this on my fb. To funny not to pass on!!

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 22, 2016, 10:15:56 AM
7 inches of snow reported in Bowling Green. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 10:17:12 AM
Rates have fallen slightly here, but snow is compacting a bit. Where I shoveled an 90 minutes ago probably has another 2 inches. But my total on unperturbed surfaces just went up 1 inch to 7 in that time.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 10:17:58 AM
You and others need to realize updating a graphic is much faster than updating pinpoint/zone forecasts in the system. That takes hours to refine and execute before being published to the public.
I get that. I'm just curious why my snow forecast went from 1-3 to 3-7.

BTW, the Hytop radar indicates a very heavy band setting up along I-65 in AL up into se middle TN. Of course, I'm guessing its mostly rain there but lets see if we can get it to spin up this way a bit. Maybe that's why the NWS upped the snow totals down this way.

Snow beginning to accumulate in Lewisburg.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 22, 2016, 10:21:05 AM
Have not seen it snow this hard with 1/4 to 1/2 dollar flakes in a long time for this long
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: bossfan2000 on January 22, 2016, 10:22:06 AM
pouring snow again here in west Smyrna...might be getting close to 2 inches now, half of that in the last 30-40 minutes.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 10:22:53 AM
It sure looks like precip is expanding across southern middle TN and northern Alabama. Snow picking up in intensity in Lewisburg.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 10:23:02 AM
Returns are increasing again over Clarksville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 10:24:07 AM
Snowfall intensifying here in Nolensville.  2" does look doable now... let's see what this activity pushing up from the south does.

Post Merge: January 22, 2016, 10:24:52 AM
It sure looks like precip is expanding across southern middle TN and northern Alabama. Snow picking up in intensity in Lewisburg.

Maybe we're seeing the advertised pivot.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 22, 2016, 10:25:08 AM
Returns are increasing again over Clarksville.
The pivot is beginning as everything is starting to orient themselves in a more NNE-SSW formation.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on January 22, 2016, 10:29:04 AM
Heavy snow in Lascassas!  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 22, 2016, 10:32:11 AM
It's been coming down pretty good here too, and blowing It's beautiful.

:)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 10:32:23 AM
Moderate  snow now here in Almaville/840
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 10:32:36 AM
11 inches plus now of snow. Trees our sagging to the ground. I sure if this keeps up we will lose power. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 10:33:34 AM
11 inches plus now of snow. Trees our sagging to the ground. I sure if this keeps up we will lose power. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Liked you for the snow, not the fact you could lose power. haha
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Stevo on January 22, 2016, 10:33:44 AM
News 2 just stated that the Nissan plant is closing and that all shifts are cancelled tomorrow.  That never happens.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: angrypug on January 22, 2016, 10:34:08 AM
Its snowing about as hard as I can remember ever seeing it snow right now in Cookeville. Its been pretty heavy last couple hours but its really really coming down at the moment.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 22, 2016, 10:35:23 AM
it is coming down the hardest it has been since it started now...and the radar doesnt even look that good over my house right now..mmk :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wilsoncountygirl on January 22, 2016, 10:37:42 AM
Wonder if the mail is coming today in Lebanon? I have a package that says out for delivery??? hmmm.... we shall see
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on January 22, 2016, 10:39:01 AM
Guys, I would greatly appreciate an update if you could give me one. I'm on top of Monteagle currently on my way to Pulaski,TN. I've gotta spend about an hour there doing an inspection and then headed back to Chattanooga hopefully to make my friend's 30th b-day party by 8EST. What kind of conditions can I expect on the way back? Thanks!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Crockett on January 22, 2016, 10:39:41 AM
Wonder if the mail is coming today in Lebanon? I have a package that says out for delivery??? hmmm.... we shall see

Haha. I've been tweeting my UPS driver to see if she has abandoned her route for the day since she has a package I've been waiting on. Sadly it isn't looking good.  :-\
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 10:39:56 AM
Pivot on me baby!!   ::guitar::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: kelmichelle on January 22, 2016, 10:40:37 AM
We finally have snow coming down in Shelbyville. Lunch is almost ready if you can make the drive...chicken  and dressing, mashed potatoes, fried okra, macaroni and cheese, pinto beans and corn bread! The life of a teacher on a snow day!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 10:41:20 AM
Yay for low sun angles too. Had this been in March we would be having more trouble seeing this accumulate at this time of day.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Stevo on January 22, 2016, 10:41:53 AM
Just out of curiosity, for the Hendersonville/Gallatin area, how long is this snow expected to last? 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: wilsoncountygirl on January 22, 2016, 10:42:22 AM
Pivot on me baby!!   ::guitar::

My USPS carrier has no fear so I won't be surprised to see her. UPS is another story.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Beth on January 22, 2016, 10:43:30 AM
We finally have snow coming down in Shelbyville. Lunch is almost ready if you can make the drive...chicken  and dressing, mashed potatoes, fried okra, macaroni and cheese, pinto beans and corn bread! The life of a teacher on a snow day!
Yummy! I would be there but we are close to 5 inches of snow in Dickson and I do not drive in snow!   :)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 10:44:46 AM
Just out of curiosity, for the Hendersonville/Gallatin area, how long is this snow expected to last?

Probably another 4-5 hours.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 22, 2016, 10:45:27 AM
Guys, I would greatly appreciate an update if you could give me one. I'm on top of Monteagle currently on my way to Pulaski,TN. I've gotta spend about an hour there doing an inspection and then headed back to Chattanooga hopefully to make my friend's 30th b-day party by 8EST. What kind of conditions can I expect on the way back? Thanks!
you should be OK if your heading to Chattanooga
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Vols1 on January 22, 2016, 10:46:04 AM
Ones it pivots will it strengthen or just kinda sit where it is?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 10:46:19 AM
I just got out in it and have been sitting on the porch in my carhartt jacket drinking beer. It's working, I am going back to the porch with another beer! LOL!!! ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Stevo on January 22, 2016, 10:46:33 AM
Probably another 4-5 hours.

 ::snowman:: ::guitar:: ::bacon::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 22, 2016, 10:48:27 AM
you should be OK if your heading to Chattanooga
missed the part of headed to Pulaski...I live in spring hill and have a 1/2 my sister lives in Lewisburg and it was just changing over so I don't know but I will tell you it is snowing really good and it won't take long for roads to be almost impassible
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: aubieman on January 22, 2016, 10:55:40 AM
Piling up fast now in Siegel/Walter Hill area of Murfreesboro. Looking at the radar SE of us, I like our chances to meet or beat the current OHX forecast.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 10:56:08 AM
Up to 4.5" :D
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: aubieman on January 22, 2016, 10:58:48 AM
What are the chances this is a top 10 event for Nashville? Would need to top 8.1, I believe. And from where does the official measurement come? Airport?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: aeasberry21 on January 22, 2016, 11:03:55 AM
Wow the hrrr for us here in Baxter was very impressive!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: hurricaneguy on January 22, 2016, 11:04:01 AM
Congrats to those getting snow. East TN will get the shaft on this one  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WXHD on January 22, 2016, 11:05:16 AM
Anyone have a good hrrr link?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: aeasberry21 on January 22, 2016, 11:06:43 AM
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=HRRR&p=acc10snow&rh=2016012215&fh=loop&r=rv&dpdt=
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 11:08:16 AM
Anyone have a good hrrr link?

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_memphis.php
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 11:09:54 AM
Looks like returns are losing punch, are we expecting anymore enhancement in precip this afternoon or is it losing punch and moving on to fast? ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 11:11:07 AM
missed the part of headed to Pulaski...I live in spring hill and have a 1/2 my sister lives in Lewisburg and it was just changing over so I don't know but I will tell you it is snowing really good and it won't take long for roads to be almost impassible

Roads went to awful in a hurry in Lewisburg. I mean two hands on the wheel put it in 4-low and hope to get home awful.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 11:13:16 AM
Roads went to awful in a hurry in Lewisburg. I mean two hands on the wheel put it in 4-low and hope to get home awful.

 ::snowman:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 11:24:13 AM
Congrats to all who got snow!  Especially Nashville!  Hopefully everyone in mid state will get at least a few inches.  Hopefully we get another big one in Feb.  for the whole state.
I do feel for the Memphis gang.  It sucks.  No other words to describe it. 

Hope Kevin you are feeling better health wise.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Stevo on January 22, 2016, 11:28:19 AM
Station Camp area of Hendersonville..(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/5f24f62fc4d72e07ee76f15f402b455d.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 11:28:48 AM
Back under a heavy snow band!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Matthew on January 22, 2016, 11:31:38 AM
Back under a heavy snow band!

Knock on wood.  I like where we are sitting from Nashville to Mt. Juliet to you to the Boro.  Looks to be pivoting right in this area.  Hope so!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 11:31:54 AM
Okay, I'm back... been snowing constantly for an hour or more... looks like we have about 3 inches.  I need to measure.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 11:45:04 AM
Just flurries here now. Maybe about over, but the wind is picking up
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 11:46:51 AM
Just flurries here now. Maybe about over, but the wind is picking up

The wind has picked up here too. Making whiteout conditions.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 11:49:49 AM
Radar showing another good hit of snow coming.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 11:50:58 AM
I would really like to see another couple of inches lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 11:53:00 AM
I would really like to see another couple of inches lol

I want it to keep snowing too. Thankfully I made have another 3-4 hours.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 11:58:01 AM
I measured... close to right at 2 inches in Nolensville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Lcwthrnut on January 22, 2016, 12:05:18 PM
Got a nice little snow event in Lewis county. Between 2.5-3"

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 22, 2016, 12:06:37 PM
Some beautiful pictures coming out of Middle TN...congratulations. Well overdue. Enjoy it!

Meanwhile, in the snow desert of Memphis (haha), another moderate band has set up across the river and looks to push into Shelby/DeSoto over the next hour or two. Not sure what the precip type is but can assume snow. If so, may drop a quick half inch.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 12:09:43 PM
I dont know the best way to do it but maybe someone has an idea. Need to make a thread or map that list the total for everyone. Very hard to keep up with in this thread.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 12:12:23 PM
Approaching right at 4 inches just west of CKV. It has been a blue collar effort. Would love to get another afternoon enhancement band before leaving. Still a fine somewhat steady snow is falling. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mudaddict on January 22, 2016, 12:15:40 PM
Heaviest snow yet, might break 3 inches if this holds up
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 12:17:23 PM
Just went out to get the mail and this snow/wind is brutal. ::cold::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NismoWx on January 22, 2016, 12:18:24 PM
I'm still working in it. Frackin cold!

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 12:18:31 PM
Approaching right at 4 inches just west of CKV. It has been a blue collar effort. Would love to get another afternoon enhancement band before leaving. Still a fine somewhat steady snow is falling. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

I'm measuring 4 to 5" in different spots..we'll call it 4.5".  Looking at the radar at 6am this morning I thought it would be more but the good stuff set-up just to the west of me.  It wasn't 1988 or 2003....but no complaints.  Enjoyed every flake.   ::guitar::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 12:19:40 PM
Some beautiful pictures coming out of Middle TN...congratulations. Well overdue. Enjoy it!

Meanwhile, in the snow desert of Memphis (haha), another moderate band has set up across the river and looks to push into Shelby/DeSoto over the next hour or two. Not sure what the precip type is but can assume snow. If so, may drop a quick half inch.
That band that stretches down the Ohio and Miss Rivers all the way to Memphis refuses to die. It has actually shown some enhancement.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 12:20:09 PM
I'm measuring 4 to 5" in different spots..we'll call it 4.5".  Looking at the radar at 6am this morning I thought it would be more but the good stuff set-up just to the west of me.  It wasn't 1988 or 2003....but no complaints.  Enjoyed every flake.   ::guitar::

That snow band west of Nashville moving east could give you another inch before all is said and done.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 12:21:14 PM
I have about 2" just southwest of Lewisburg.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 12:21:26 PM
I'm measuring 4 to 5" in different spots..we'll call it 4.5".  Looking at the radar at 6am this morning I thought it would be more but the good stuff set-up just to the west of me.  It wasn't 1988 or 2003....but no complaints.  Enjoyed every flake.   ::guitar::
Congrats Snowdog. I thought last night that things would work out up that way.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Cody on January 22, 2016, 12:23:01 PM
Not sure but watching the radar and it looks to be building in extreme west tn. Maybe this will continue?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 22, 2016, 12:24:07 PM
Fast approaching 3in near the VA hospital/Siegel schools complex in Murfreesboro.

Currently under an area of heavy snow with about 1/4-1/3 mile visibility.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: snowdog on January 22, 2016, 12:25:08 PM
Congrats Snowdog. I thought last night that things would work out up that way.

Thanks man.  I think the snow lovers in this area can finally breathe a sigh of relief.  It can snow more than a couple of inches in Nashville!!  It's been a long time coming.  Really close last year to a big snow and some got it today.  Bring on Fab Feb.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: angrypug on January 22, 2016, 12:29:25 PM
Still snowing pretty hard in Cookeville

(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/21a84b3ffbbc41a7b5cd750ca05c823c.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 12:35:33 PM
That snow band west of Nashville moving east could give you another inch before all is said and done.
Hoping for some good stubborn pinwheel enhancement Charles, would like to get another inch for sure. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Trevor on January 22, 2016, 12:36:59 PM
Coming down at a pretty good clip in Southaven.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 12:51:43 PM
Some beautiful pictures coming out of Middle TN...congratulations. Well overdue. Enjoy it!

Meanwhile, in the snow desert of Memphis (haha), another moderate band has set up across the river and looks to push into Shelby/DeSoto over the next hour or two. Not sure what the precip type is but can assume snow. If so, may drop a quick half inch.

We are the parched man in a desert at the end of a long, skinny hose.  Will someone please turn the faucet on so we may drink?

Post Merge: January 22, 2016, 12:53:07 PM
Not sure but watching the radar and it looks to be building in extreme west tn. Maybe this will continue?


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Would be a miracle bailout, that's for sure. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on January 22, 2016, 12:54:05 PM
The radar returns and Chattanooga forecast are not syncing up at all. I don't get it
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: jbarnby on January 22, 2016, 12:54:54 PM
Inglewood, East Nash, about 2 hrs ago

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 22, 2016, 12:54:59 PM
That snow band west of Nashville moving east could give you another inch before all is said and done.

I am getting close to 7" here close to Percy Warner Park... This latest band is really putting it down. Radar returns are not doing it justice . If you look at the radar the band has basically comes to a stop, with the back side building faster than it moves east. Amazing......
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 12:55:05 PM
Hopefully that little band rotating around the Paducah area can pivot down my way. Looking like it may, unless it falls apart beforehand.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 12:57:03 PM
Snow and wind have picked up here significantly for the moment.  Maybe we can hang on to this for a bit. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 12:58:22 PM
The wind has picked up for sure.Still just flurries for now.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CT_Yankee on January 22, 2016, 12:58:51 PM
I have about 2" just southwest of Lewisburg.
Maybe an inch up here so far and that's being generous.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 01:00:06 PM
Snow and wind have picked up here significantly for the moment.  Maybe we can hang on to this for a bit.

Radar trends look good. Hang in there.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mempho on January 22, 2016, 01:01:29 PM
I'll take it any way I can get it,  my friend. 

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 01:04:36 PM
Looks like there's some slight backbuilding in Stewart and Houston Co.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on January 22, 2016, 01:06:31 PM
Snow continues to fall in Cookeville. Straight down heavy style (not shown in this picture)....amazing event. Some of our rural areas northeast of me will likely push a foot of accumulation.

[attachimg=1]

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 01:07:31 PM
Getting a little excited about enhancement back to the north and west. Maybe good wrap afternoon enhancement? ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Thundersnow on January 22, 2016, 01:09:55 PM
Well, at least for Nashville, we'll be able to claim at least a statistically average winter for snowfall... with a lot of winter left to go.

Next one can belong to Memphis, although we won't refuse it here either.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 01:11:55 PM
I believe it's safe to say that the so called Nashville Snowdome has been broken! Here's to more in the future. ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 01:12:24 PM
Have hit the, at least, 12 hour mark of frozen precip! When I woke up at 1 AM we had freezing rain.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 22, 2016, 01:12:54 PM
Snow bands are actually coming in from the NW here now. Strong NE flow aloft is still really bringing in the moisture still. Interesting to watch the feature do this. Winds are picking up as well.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 01:14:12 PM
I'll say one thing, while we never have been under a super heavy band today it has snowed pretty steady the whole time. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 01:15:23 PM
That Paducah snow band is looking good. Keeps growing
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: collinsk on January 22, 2016, 01:16:06 PM
West looks to be filling in again?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: VandyMachine on January 22, 2016, 01:19:45 PM
Looks like it to me.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 01:27:23 PM
Yes let's get this wrap around right here, it would be a sweet ending. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 01:29:29 PM
Yeah that's a nice looking band rotating in West Ky. Come on down  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on January 22, 2016, 01:33:48 PM
We just reached 6" here in Hermitage. I was thinking 6-8" from the models earlier in the week, if it didn't bust. Another heavy band coming in now. It's blowing sideways!  ::lookaround::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 01:36:39 PM
Hit the magic number 12 inches and still snowing. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dave R on January 22, 2016, 01:37:20 PM
I am getting close to 7" here close to Percy Warner Park... This latest band is really putting it down. Radar returns are not doing it justice . If you look at the radar the band has basically comes to a stop, with the back side building faster than it moves east. Amazing......

I'm on the western edge of Bellevue and have 3 1/2". Quite a difference.....
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 01:38:16 PM
Up to 5.5". ::snowman:: another few hours of this level of snow and I should top out over 6"!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 22, 2016, 01:40:50 PM
About 2" in Franklin but that's plenty for me.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Andy on January 22, 2016, 01:41:44 PM
All of this has to move east right? Everyone here is getting pretty antsy in East Tn. I live on the NC line and still think we are going to do well. Am I wrong ?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 01:45:25 PM
We're creeping toward 5, if that band to the northwest holds up with might get close to 6 if we're very lucky. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 01:50:30 PM
Wind has really picked up now. Waiting for that band to swing on down lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 22, 2016, 01:53:24 PM
Really hoping the blob to my northwest holds together long enough to give Franklin a little more.  (http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/ef04934c1acbff448b8aec14f4a8db5a.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Vols1 on January 22, 2016, 01:56:47 PM
Anyone think that around Paducah will continue to develope and move south east towards Clarksville and Dickson?
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 01:57:34 PM
Anyone think that around Paducah will continue to develope and move south east towards Clarksville and Dickson?

At the moment, it looks entirely possible.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dave on January 22, 2016, 01:59:22 PM
I'm hoping it goes all the way to Franklin.

And Wonka is back, as promised. RIP Snowbird.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: VandyMachine on January 22, 2016, 02:00:39 PM
Anybody notice the snow pinwheel northeast of Mcminnville? Cool stuff!

(http://s30.postimg.org/4wn6tb51p/snow_pinwheel.jpg) (http://postimg.org/image/4wn6tb51p/)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 02:00:54 PM
I'm hoping it goes all the way to Franklin.

And Wonka is back, as promised. RIP Snowbird.


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I don't think you could have picked a more creepy Wonka. Haha
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: WestKnoxNavster on January 22, 2016, 02:02:42 PM
All of this has to move east right? Everyone here is getting pretty antsy in East Tn. I live on the NC line and still think we are going to do well. Am I wrong ?
What's this East Tn you speak of? Lol
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: adamrc on January 22, 2016, 02:03:09 PM
Snow has been and still is consistantly coming down at a moderate rate over the past couple of hours in Bellevue.  It keeps adding up.  It keeps developing every time I check the radar.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: NashRugger on January 22, 2016, 02:03:59 PM
Anybody notice the snow pinwheel northeast of Mcminnville? Cool stuff!

(http://s30.postimg.org/4wn6tb51p/snow_pinwheel.jpg) (http://postimg.org/image/4wn6tb51p/)
Almost a meso-low type feature because the surface low is in Alabama and the ULL is east of there and is filling.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: draelius on January 22, 2016, 02:08:06 PM
If we had seen overnight what we've seen in the last 15 minutes, we may have actually squeezed out 4-6". Full-fledged snow shower in Olive Branch ATM.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Coach B on January 22, 2016, 02:12:43 PM
I'm up to a full 3" after that last band southwest of Lewisburg. Much better than I thought we'd do at 9 this morning. Seems much more powdery than I would have figured.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 02:14:37 PM
I keep talking about that band coming out of W Ky, but as slowly as it seems to be moving an additional inch or more is not out of the question IMO
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ChrisPC on January 22, 2016, 02:14:48 PM
It's rotating right over OHX now. It keeps backbuilding, and now a heavy band is coming right at the Old Hickory-Donelson-Hermitage area.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Weatherdogg on January 22, 2016, 02:16:46 PM
I've got right around 1" now in NW Lincoln county and all within the last hour or so.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 02:17:04 PM
I keep talking about that band coming out of W Ky, but as slowly as it seems to be moving an additional inch or more is not out of the question IMO
That's my thinking too drift. Hope we get it! ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 22, 2016, 02:20:14 PM
I keep talking about that band coming out of W Ky, but as slowly as it seems to be moving an additional inch or more is not out of the question IMO
Impressive band at the moment. The light returns on the tail end down this way are not making it to the ground. I'll take my 6 inches and be very happy.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 02:22:10 PM
I haven't remeasured in at least 2 hours. Even with compacting, I've gotta have nearly 9 inches now. Where I shoveled when I had 6.5 inches, i've probably got 3 more. unbelievable.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 02:23:08 PM
It would take that band to hold together to get me close to 6. Would for sure be over 5. Getting close to 5 now. ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: angrypug on January 22, 2016, 02:24:02 PM
Up to a solid 6.5 in Cookeville, still snowing pretty hard.


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 02:26:04 PM
I would think with that backside catching the tail end of the main batch would help it keep going. It still looks good at the moment. ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Curt on January 22, 2016, 02:27:47 PM
Little Rock huge win at an under forecasted 8 inches. 40 and sunny there melting quick. Talk about no cold air behind this system. Geez.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 02:30:43 PM
This snow is definitely drier than I'd anticipated. Its not straight Colorado powder, but it doesn't make good snowmen or snowballs.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 22, 2016, 02:32:03 PM
I haven't remeasured in at least 2 hours. Even with compacting, I've gotta have nearly 9 inches now. Where I shoveled when I had 6.5 inches, i've probably got 3 more. unbelievable.

Your dues have been paid and you have been rewarded the sweet spot.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: ServoCrow on January 22, 2016, 02:33:38 PM
Snow just picked back up here. I didn't measure accurately, but I know we are definitely over the 3" mark.  I tried to get into the picture thread, but for some reason I can't. Here is my footprint in the yard.  ;D ::snowman::(http://i65.tinypic.com/o0pbwz.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: angrypug on January 22, 2016, 02:36:56 PM
From snow measuring board I put out last night, Cookeville (http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160122/a11917004f66d67ca4ac77ef8787fb78.jpg)


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 02:51:23 PM
Your dues have been paid and you have been rewarded the sweet spot.

This is true - though I wish it hadn't take 26 years to break 5 inches IMBY
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Eric on January 22, 2016, 02:52:55 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/ev46t4.jpg)
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: JHart on January 22, 2016, 02:54:28 PM
With just over 3 inches of snow, the grass in my front yard is covered for the first time since 2003.  I am now content with winter ... at least until the next opportunity. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: cgauxknox on January 22, 2016, 03:00:33 PM
The temps in Knoxville have started going back down; I don't think we ever got to the 39 degree high that they had forecast.  From the radar it looks like most of the moisture is continuing to spin over Middle TN so we'll see what happens.  There may be some serious time invested tonight in looking out at the streetlight to see when the snow starts after dark. 
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 22, 2016, 03:02:02 PM
Saw NashSevereWx just tweet that latest HRRR shows a possible additional 3 to 4 inches.   Thoughts?


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 03:03:11 PM
Saw NashSevereWx just tweet that latest HRRR shows a possible additional 3 to 4 inches.   Thoughts?


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If that other band from Paducah makes it down here, an additional 3-4" is very plausible.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Scot on January 22, 2016, 03:03:27 PM
Oh wow


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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Charles L. on January 22, 2016, 03:10:24 PM
Latest HRRR accumulated snowfall. The numbers may be a bit overdone, but the point is that we aren't done with this event yet.

[attachimg=1]

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 03:16:39 PM
If that other band from Paducah makes it down here, an additional 3-4" is very plausible.
I hope that band can make it here, it has been snowing steady here anyway for the most part. Kinda light steady,LOL! But that band seems to be making it. ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Brad on January 22, 2016, 03:18:48 PM
If that other band from Paducah makes it down here, an additional 3-4" is very plausible.

I'll be curious to see what it does. Looks to be moving almost straight south currently but hopefully as the system moves NE that blob will begin sliding SE. Would be a nice cherry on top if it stays together.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: aubieman on January 22, 2016, 03:21:15 PM
per @NashSevereWx 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZWo8jtWQAAR3_t.jpg:large)

Seems like a pipe dream, but it does seem to be stuck here for a while longer!
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 03:21:54 PM
That band out of KY has made some headway down here. Snow has picked up. Not heavy or anything, but a steadier general light snow ::snowman::

Post Merge: January 22, 2016, 03:32:29 PM
Oh yeah got a pretty good burst going on now
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: justinmundie on January 22, 2016, 03:37:03 PM
I've had a solid moderate snow since that last band passed.

Even if that band doesn't make it. 1.5 over the next 3 hours seems entirely possible at the rate its falling.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: vanster67 on January 22, 2016, 03:41:50 PM
If that happens,  we will have a foot or more here in Monterey.

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 22, 2016, 03:42:03 PM
Hope I get this band to boost my total a little anyway. It's been light but steady even though the radar doesn't show much. That band keeps getting closer, should boost returns a little anyway. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: mamMATTus on January 22, 2016, 03:44:57 PM
Aaaand the heaviest part of this band will come through as rain. Just unreal. We will get nothing out of this here[attachimg=1]

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Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 22, 2016, 03:46:21 PM
11-14 inch snow amounts are appearing in south-central KY locations.   
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: Drifter49 on January 22, 2016, 03:48:38 PM
I just want the roads that have been plowed recovered LOL
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: StormNine on January 22, 2016, 03:52:35 PM
Quote
That band out of KY has made some headway down here. Snow has picked up. Not heavy or anything, but a steadier general light snow ::snowman::


Same here in Hopkinsville.
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: BALLPARK on January 22, 2016, 03:53:06 PM
Another 2-3 inches would be ice cream on top of the cake. ::guitar::
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: jbeasley10 on January 22, 2016, 03:56:03 PM
8" in Goodlettsville.    Also a little sad for Chattanooga.   Bust for them
Title: Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
Post by: dwagner88 on January 22, 2016, 04:01:46 PM
8" in Goodlettsville.    Also a little sad for Chattanooga.   Bust for them