Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => TNWx Vault of Fame and Infamy => Topic started by: Kevin Terry on February 28, 2015, 10:33:08 PM

Title: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on February 28, 2015, 10:33:08 PM
Is this the last threat of the season? Will I-40 be finally crushed?

Only time will tell....
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 01, 2015, 12:52:13 AM
Is this the last threat of the season? Will I-40 be finally crushed?

Only time will tell....

0z Euro nicely answers the second question...thanks for playing along Euro!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 01, 2015, 04:13:25 AM
Is this the last threat of the season? Will I-40 be finally crushed?

Only time will tell....
Excellent!  Hopefully, you just started the greatest thread inforum history!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: BRUCE on March 01, 2015, 04:21:03 AM
the 6z nam is going to be more in line with the euro... though still not in frame hour wise... but already at 81 o 84.. much more aggressive with precip n cold coming in... though still not in the nams wheel house... interesting to watch it follow suit. ::snowman::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 01, 2015, 04:21:22 AM
Euro is an epic crush job for the I40 corridor.  I'm sure the clown is HOF worthy.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 01, 2015, 04:22:50 AM
the 6z nam is going to be more in line with the euro... though still not in frame hour wise... but already at 81 o 84.. much more aggressive with precip n cold coming in... though still not in the nams wheel house... interesting to watch it follow suit. ::snowman::
The new king looks the same as the old king?
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: BRUCE on March 01, 2015, 04:26:41 AM
The new king looks the same as the old king?
good question mempho... im liking the looks of the nam at the early stages... definelty more aggressive than latest gfs... which looks to be more in line with the euro... look for todays 12zgfs come back to its senses some today... if not surely by 0z tonight
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Coach B on March 01, 2015, 06:14:05 AM
GFS looks like a significant winter storm to me. It is quicker with the front and precip than the EURO, GEM, and NAM.  GFS has freezing temps in the 40 corridor before noon Wednesday where the GEM and NAM look to be later in the evening before it gets going.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Coach B on March 01, 2015, 06:42:38 AM
HUN:
Quote
...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE ENTIRE
REGION -- LIKELY HIGHER THAN ANY WINTER PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE HAD THUS
FAR
....... THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HAS BEEN RAISED

OHX:
Quote
THE WEATHER GETS INCREASINGLY SLOPPY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, AS THE SNOW AND SLEET DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE AND TEMPERATURES FALL.

MEG:
Quote
STILL LOOKING VERY
INTERESTING. THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS/06Z NAM PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPS. THE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER TROUGH HANGS WELL BACK TO THE
WEST WHILE STRONG...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS POINTS TOWARD A GOOD
DEAL OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP. THE 00Z ECMWF IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
WELL OVER AN INCH LIQUID BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE 06Z GFS HAS
LESS BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO FREEZING...SLEET AND THE SNOW AS THE COLD AIR DEPTH
DEEPENS FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO
TALK ABOUT AMOUNTS BUT SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP SEEMS POSSIBLE
OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE MIDSOUTH
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Coach B on March 01, 2015, 06:53:01 AM
BMX already out with a briefing highlighting the potential:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=mmbrief
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2015, 07:04:37 AM
This set-up is a "Winter Classic" we haven't seen around these parts in quite some time.  It's not a quick hitting low that rushes through, but a long lasting-over running type event that will be interesting (fun) to track.  It differs from the last two ice events as well, as it's not warm air pushing into and over cold air that is already in place, but cold air intruding into a warm air mass. I would think (hope) that it means the amount of freezing rain would be minimal.   ::fingerscrossed::

I think we've all had our fill of freezing rain this season.  ::whistling::


Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2015, 07:08:38 AM
From MRX:

Quote
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LOTS OF ACTION IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS WINTER IS TRYING TO HANG ON BUT SPRING IS ON
THE WAY. THE METEOROLOGICAL RESPONSE WILL BE PERIODS OF TIGHT
THERMAL AND HEIGHT GRADIENT WHICH LEAD TO A SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
SUPPLY OF ACTIVE WEATHER. TO START OFF...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING WITH
THE PROGRESSIVE BOUNDARY. AGAIN THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE ENDING. THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN
STATES UPPER TROUGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO
LEADS TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN
EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BUILDS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. UNFORTUNATELY THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER AND A TRAILING NORTHERN BRANCH
UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LIFT IN RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS STILL A
FEW DAYS OUT SO DETAILS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR ON HOW THIS PLAYS OUT BUT
WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT DOMINATING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BEHIND THE FRONT.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: cgauxknox on March 01, 2015, 07:18:05 AM
This set-up is a "Winter Classic" we haven't seen around these parts in quite some time.  It's not a quick hitting low that rushes through, but a long lasting-over running type event that will be interesting (fun) to track.  It differs from the last two ice events as well, as it's not warm air pushing into and over cold air that is already in place, but cold air intruding into a warm air mass. I would think (hope) that it means the amount of freezing rain would be minimal.   ::fingerscrossed::

I think we've all had our fill of freezing rain this season.  ::whistling::

So far it seems like more of the discussion has focused on areas southwest of us but the model images I've seen look like we're lined up for a solid snowfall in East TN as well.  Are we just too far out for the NWS discussions to start for East TN or is there more caution about whether or not the system makes it this far east?  The past couple of weeks have been a good education for me with much more discussion on here and more systems to track than I've seen before but I'm still a newbie.  Thoughts on the impact for East TN will be welcome.  ::coffee:: EDIT....and after posting this I saw the MRX info you shared; I need to read the whole thread before responding to things.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Adam on March 01, 2015, 07:24:35 AM
The 6z GFS was a truly horrible run for most of North Alabama. Huntsville goes from HR 90 to HR 102 with nothing but freezing rain. I really hope this does not happen in our area, but it has happened before and it will happen again. One thing I am curious about is where does the cold air get hung up. Last year we had serious problems with the cold air getting hung up in areas for multiple events. This seems like it is an extremely strong cold front though so it may not be any issue at all.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2015, 07:36:08 AM

HUN:
OHX:
MEG:

Wow... that is a big statement from HUN considering what has been seen already even in that area.


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Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2015, 08:25:38 AM
So far it seems like more of the discussion has focused on areas southwest of us but the model images I've seen look like we're lined up for a solid snowfall in East TN as well.  Are we just too far out for the NWS discussions to start for East TN or is there more caution about whether or not the system makes it this far east?  The past couple of weeks have been a good education for me with much more discussion on here and more systems to track than I've seen before but I'm still a newbie.  Thoughts on the impact for East TN will be welcome.  ::coffee:: EDIT....and after posting this I saw the MRX info you shared; I need to read the whole thread before responding to things.

This has a decent depiction of how things could happen.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html (http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html)

Right now, it would seem to me the heaviest snow totals could be slightly to our north and west.  But I'd say we'll see some accumulation.

Of course, in this situation, the Great Valley of Tennessee is tricky.  Cold, dense air sometimes has trouble getting over the Plateau and down into the valley.  It just depends on when/if it can get in here before the greatest lift, and the associated precipitation, exits to the east. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: SKEW-TIM on March 01, 2015, 08:38:44 AM
I dub thee "THOR"
(http://i60.tinypic.com/2iuyqt1.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 01, 2015, 09:01:21 AM
Cobb data for BNA from the 6z GFS:

2.1" SN
.10" ZR

Not...quite...sure I agree with those numbers.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2015, 09:15:09 AM
Cobb data for BNA from the 6z GFS:

2.1" SN
.10" ZR

Not...quite...sure I agree with those numbers.   ::coffee::

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GFRcfDfNRO8/U5MaHGTxP3I/AAAAAAAAAAg/35b8kkRSWW4/s1600/670px-Know-if-You-Are-Anemic-Step-1.jpg)

Those look a little anemic to me....
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 01, 2015, 09:42:01 AM
Cobb data for BNA from the 6z GFS:

2.1" SN
.10" ZR

Not...quite...sure I agree with those numbers.   ::coffee::
That's 10.5 inches using the multiplier. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on March 01, 2015, 10:00:05 AM
Well I am ready, let's get us that big snow for all of west and middle tn. And the east can go ahead and cash in again too as long as we score. Oops almost forgot one thing, my  ::popcorn::! LOL! ::snowman::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 01, 2015, 10:02:10 AM
Huge temperature gradient.

(http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/US/namUS_sfc_temp_084.gif)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Rich L. on March 01, 2015, 10:07:31 AM
Cobb data for BNA from the 6z GFS:

2.1" SN
.10" ZR

Not...quite...sure I agree with those numbers.   ::coffee::

I don't know what those numbers mean...lol
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 01, 2015, 10:18:39 AM
I don't know what those numbers mean...lol

Everyone's a comedian...unless you're being serious, Clark.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 01, 2015, 10:34:34 AM
12z GFS synopsis for BNA: column looks to become supportive of an all-snow solution around lunchtime on Wednesday before most of the moisture comes thorugh.  Per Curt and the text data, the qpf output is ~.35-.4 of liquid.  Under a projected ratio of 9-10:1, that's close to 4" of snow.  That's only one model run of many before Wednesday.  Take with a grain of salt (or two, if inclined).
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 01, 2015, 10:38:06 AM
For MEM...12z GFS is much closer to a pure sleet event with a warm nose around 750-800 mb...but a very strong subfreezing layer below it to allow for refreezing. There would be a changeover to snow...but probably after the heaviest QPF has exited. A good half inch or slightly more precip at temps below freezing...which reach MEM around 15z Wednesday.

GFS is close to a third wave that tracks just south of TN...across North MS/AL. If that could trend north...that would be more pure snow. That would be closer to the ECMWF solution last night...which a check of last night's 0z soundings indicate pure snow at both MEM and BNA...though MEM was a little close (but below the melting thresholding)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: snowdog on March 01, 2015, 10:49:03 AM
Take with a grain of salt (or two, if inclined).

Was wondering why model watching was bad for blood pressure.  Now I know...too much salt intake.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 01, 2015, 10:50:54 AM
Would urge a little caution. Yes...its the NAM at 84 hours...but its much slower with the progression of the cold front and thus any frozen precip is well northwest of the region. While normally it could be written off...it's very much in-line with last night's 00z UKMET.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 01, 2015, 10:59:42 AM
12z UKMET is holding very strong to a NAM-like solution...I have to say I don't think we should assume too much about what could happen here yet...
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Michael on March 01, 2015, 01:21:22 PM
Too much silence. GFS and EURO must not be good?


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Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 01, 2015, 01:23:15 PM
Too much silence. GFS and EURO must not be good?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

???????? Kevin and Eric posted what the 12z GFS showed for Memphis and Nashville.

And chat is talking about the Euro, which was a solid hit.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 01, 2015, 01:46:23 PM
OK...let's talk about this setup in general...then about the 12z ECMWF solution...

As mentioned days ago...the make or break here is where does the arctic front slow and/or stall...and no longer allow for a push of continued CAA before/as the second round of precipitation arrives. The second round appears pretty sure at this point...but for who and just what is way up in the air. As discussed above...we have a camp of the NAM/UKMET that are looking to stall early...and thus would keep wintry weather northwest of the region. Meanwhile...the GFS is the most aggressive...while the GGEM and ECMWF have slowed a bit since last night but still plenty speedy enough to bring winter precipitation into the region.

So Question 1: Is this the beginning of a "Northwest Trend"? No...not really...because there's no organized system to even trend NW here. This is all dependent on the timing of that front. If the front continues to slowly significantly...then yes...the swath of significant winter precip potential goes NW but that's not a NW trend in the traditional sense. And of course we have no idea if the models have latched onto the frontal speed yet for sure anyway...which means trends in any directions are possible...and that changes not only the character of the surface cold air but the depth of cold air aloft. Usually...arctic fronts move faster than modeled...and slowing trends are rare...but that doesn't mean it couldn't happen here.

Now...onto the Euro...as said the Euro is slower than last night...though not by a significant amount and not enough to change the character of significant winter precip into the region versus the 00z run. What has changed...that slight slowing trend has warmed the temperatures aloft some...so there is more freezing rain and sleet that would be dealt with vs. pure snow than we saw on the 00z Euro run...as both 850 and 700 mb temperatures have moved up to borderline to unfavorable levels for pure snow...though there's a decent period of snow to end the event that would result in appreciable accumulation. What's very weird about the ECMWF solution here...like the 00z run...it has a very thin stripe of intense QPF that literally sits on I-40 for 6-12 hours...dropping ~1.5" amounts in that time. No other model is anything near aggressive like this...and I'm not sure if that's because the Euro shows a band of enhanced frontogenesis there or something else. I'm not even sure it's realistic given there is no other model support for something at this level at this time.

But Question 2: If those intense precip rates verify...is the cold air going to get hung up ala March 2, 2014...refusing to move the freezing line South? Well...I would be stupid if said "No" to this...that was a lesson I promised myself I would learn after that event last year. If those heavy precip rates verified in those initial hours...the 850mb temps in that corridor are 7 to 10C. That would be ZR...and with those rates you have to assume latent heat release processes would be going on and have some effect. And if that band were to sit on top of I-40? Well...you can connect the dots. But for all of that to happen you have to put in a lot of assumptions in the 12z ECMWF verifying *exactly* as modeled...which is a bad bad assumption to make right now.

So...here's where we stand...we need to pin down the progression of the front in the days to come. That's going to determine what happens and where. There's basically two camps at this point though IMO...1) The front is rather fast and TN is within a significant ice/sleet/snow (just how much of what TBD) or 2) The front is slow and gets hung up north of I-40...and the second round of moisture just tracks well northwest anyway...and there's not much if any winter precipitation locally. Basically...WSW or bust? I think so...
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Susan on March 01, 2015, 02:03:24 PM
Thank you Kevin for taking the time to write that up. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2015, 02:18:26 PM
It appears this system is like every one we follow for the most part in our neck of the woods--borderline--and we'll just have to see how the models trend the next few days.  Comes down to the speed of the cold front, which is somewhat dependent on the strength of the big blue H pushing it southward. 

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9jhwbg_conus.gif)





Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 01, 2015, 03:03:21 PM
OHX is on-board:

Quote
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-STATE ATTM.  NAM IS SLOWEST...GFS IS THE FASTEST AND
THE EURO SITS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.  OVERALL...I HAVE GONE WITH
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE EURO TIMING REGARDING FRONTAL PASSAGE. 
POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD VERY WELL BE THE STORY OF THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH.  MODELS ARE...AND HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE
AMOUNT OF LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN
EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  WITH MIDDLE TN RESIDING IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS 140-170 KT JET...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SPIT OUT AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF QPF IN A ENVIRONMENT SOLIDLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF WEDNESDAY'S FRONT.
IF WE
WENT WITH A 10 TO 1 RATIO...AND EVEN ACCOUNTED FOR LATENT HEAT
RELEASE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT'S LIQUID RAINFALL...WE WOULD BE IN LINE
FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-STATE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS...THIS SET UP IS TYPICALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO THAT
KIND OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
WE USUALLY ONLY GET THOSE KIND OF SNOW
TOTALS WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING US TO THE SOUTH...MUCH LIKE LAST
WEEK. THAT SAID...DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY...I HAVE TO START
TALKING ABOUT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT I'M NOT GOING TO ATTACH ANY MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES TO THE
FORECAST ATTM.
PLENTY MORE TO COME REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THE MODELS TO FINALLY REALIZE THEY'RE OVERDOING
THE QPF AND BACK OFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JetJock on March 01, 2015, 05:00:29 PM
Very informative write up Kevin. Thanks for taking the time and effort to provide your insight.

Well done!  ::applause::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 01, 2015, 05:33:24 PM
18z GFS Cobb data for BNA:

2.1" SN
.44" IP
.61" ZR

No thanks. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: pirates1 on March 01, 2015, 06:36:28 PM
Eric---what does that translate to?
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 01, 2015, 06:40:07 PM
Eric---what does that translate to?

One helluva mess.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Coach B on March 01, 2015, 07:05:37 PM
Paducah's AFD had this to say concerning the new GFS:
Quote
IT IS IMPRESSIVE TO NOTE THAT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK ACTUALLY PICKED UP ON THE ORIENTATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE MID-WEEK COLD AIR SURGE BEING DEPICTED IN THE
CURRENT RANGE OF NUMERICAL MODEL SUITE. THE LATEST CHANGES IN THE
CONSTRUCTION OF THE PHYSICS AND RESOLUTION OF THE GFS APPEAR TO BE
SHOWING BETTER IMPROVEMENT.

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 01, 2015, 07:52:13 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_DiJ8_U4AAk-UB.png)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on March 01, 2015, 07:52:53 PM
It's COMING!!!! ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::!!!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 01, 2015, 08:46:31 PM
Well, if Eric's Cobb data is any indication of what this system is bringing, then I'm not excited.

Here's hoping that east TN stays on the warm side of this thing.  I really, really don't want more ZR.  Nothing enjoyable about it, whatsoever.  In fact, give me 60 and thunder.  It is March, after all. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 01, 2015, 09:11:40 PM
Simulated radar of the 0z NAM valid for late Wednesday night.

[attachimg=1]

Everything you see in orange and red is, more than likely, heavy sleet.

Look at how expansive the precip field is BEHIND the front.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: pirates1 on March 01, 2015, 09:21:21 PM
Crap!  What happened to the snow scenario?
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clay on March 01, 2015, 09:24:53 PM
The 0z NAM suggest 3-4" of snow and sleet for MEM/BNA Wed Night.

COBB results
MEM: .23 ZR .98 IP 1.1 SN
BNA: .18 ZR .53 IP .9 SN

Snow totals are probably too conservative.

#NAMdisclaimer
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dave R on March 01, 2015, 10:00:35 PM
OHX 8:34 pm

Quote
LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 18Z
NAM...18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...21Z SREF AND WPC CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE MID
STATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR EARLY MARCH MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVERRUNNING AREAS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS STILL REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND COULD
EASILY CHANGE...AS OF NOW FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE
CWA COULD GO THROUGH ALL PHASES OF PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW AS THE INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DEEPENS. MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT
ON TIMING WITH FRONT...WITH GFS FASTEST AND NAM SLOWEST...AND THIS
ALONG WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT AT 700MB WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP ENDS UP PREVAILING AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
ATTM...SEVERAL INCHES OF SLEET AND/OR SNOW CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED!

SHAMBURGER
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 01, 2015, 10:27:31 PM
Been trying to think back and I cannot recall a freezing rain / sleet storm this late in the season for the mid-South. Does anyone recall one?
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 01, 2015, 11:39:37 PM
Been trying to think back and I cannot recall a freezing rain / sleet storm this late in the season for the mid-South. Does anyone recall one?

Short memory lol. 5 inches of sleet here 3/2/14.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Southwest of the Boro on March 01, 2015, 11:41:44 PM
No, not this late.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 02, 2015, 12:00:25 AM
Short memory lol. 5 inches of sleet here 3/2/14.

Duh. Didn't make it this far south, but yes, that would be one.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Jilly on March 02, 2015, 12:40:07 AM
How much snow did BNA get 3/13/93? (Trying to remember...)  ::pondering:: Thanks.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 02, 2015, 12:50:46 AM

How much snow did BNA get 3/13/93? (Trying to remember...)  ::pondering:: Thanks.

Looks like 3" from Superstorm '93.

Amounts picked up quickly south and east of the city.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 02, 2015, 12:58:27 AM
Quick review...basically all modeling on board tonight with a significant winter storm for the Mid-South and much of TN. Still need to pin down the timing...with the NAM/UKMET notably slower but even they are buying into the event itself. Obviously...the exact types and amounts are up in the air...but I'm getting the feeling this is looking more sleet-ish with a strong subfreezing layer that exceeds the -6C guideline for refreezing despite a stout warm nose holding on. GFS and Euro both suggest however a changeover to snow with at least a few inches possible.

Of course data will continue to see shifts in the runs to come...but the general consensus appears to be building. What to really look for in the days to come (besides the precip type issue) is where that likely enhanced QPF band sets up and moves...as that is where totals will be enhanced. So long as the CAA is as strong as modeled tonight in the 900-950 mb layer...profiles would switch to sleet quickly enough to where a 'hangup' in surface temperatures ala 3/2/14 in the icing zone due to latent heat processes would be much less likely.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: MemphisJDJ on March 02, 2015, 03:52:26 AM
Winter Storm Watch from MEG Noon Wednesday until 6 AM Thursday
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 02, 2015, 04:16:45 AM
Quote
OUR MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WX AS
MUCH COLDER AIR SLAMS INTO MID TN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ENHANCING LIFT
ACROSS THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW PREVAILING BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (WITH SOME SLEET) COULD ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE MID STATE. AT THIS TIME WE THINK INTO
WARNING CRITERIA (MORE THAN 3)...BUT WE WANT TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH...MAYBE LATER TODAY IF MODEL
SUPPORT CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE SOME ICE POTENTIAL...BUT THIS
EVENT LOOKS LIKE MORE SNOW THAN ICE FOR MID TN. MANY QUESTIONS
REMAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE...BUT WE ARE
HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS UNDER PERFORM...THIS
EVENT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS AS POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET...AND ROADS BECOME SNOW/ICE COVERED AND SLICK. IMPACTS
WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OHX morning AFD.

The 6z NAM was slower with the timing and makes this more a late Wednesday night into Thursday morning event.

It did show quite a bit of sleet.

The 6z GFS continues to show a faster system and make this more of a Wednesday afternoon/evening event.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 02, 2015, 04:32:09 AM
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities

90-95% for Nashville to see, at least, 1" of snow

[attachimg=1]

And the WPC is going for moderate to high potential for at least 4" across middle TN too.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2015, 05:33:36 AM
Simulated radar of the 0z NAM valid for late Wednesday night.

(Attachment Link)

Everything you see in orange and red is, more than likely, heavy sleet.

Look at how expansive the precip field is BEHIND the front.

MUCH more precipitation behind the front than in front of the front.   ???
Anafront?

Quote
anafront


A front at which the warm air is ascending the frontal surface up to high altitudes.


With anafronts, precipitation may occur to the rear of the front and is sometimes associated with cyclogenesis.

Interesting... ::coffee::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2015, 05:36:55 AM
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities

90-95% for Nashville to see, at least, 1" of snow

(Attachment Link)

And the WPC is going for moderate to high potential for at least 4" across middle TN too.

Whatever ends up falling (hopefully snow), this looks to be mid/west Tennessee's winter weather event of the season.  ::applause::

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2015, 06:04:08 AM
MRX's take:

Quote
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN ATMOSPHERIC BATTLE IS IN
THE WORKS THIS WEEK AS A WELCOME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BULGES NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGING A HINT OF SPRING TO START THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS THE SEASONS BATTLE FOR DOMINANCE A DEEP
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMOVE THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO WINTER. THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME WARM AIR TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMPLIMENTS OF THE
PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
QUITE HIGH BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE BEING LIFTED BY A
WARM FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE NATION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE DEEP
RIVER OF MOIST AIR SPREADING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN STATES
UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FADE AWAY WITH EACH MODEL RUN WITH
INSTABILITY LACKING SO TRIMMED BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER KEEPING IT
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS ALSO CONTINUE A TREND OF SLOWING THE ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEARLY PARALLELING THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE OOZING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEEP RIVER OF MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES LEADING TO A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN FEATURES. HOWEVER...WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE
REGION WITH MOISTURE TRAILING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SOME SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
LATER MODEL RUNS FOR BETTER FOCUS ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Coach B on March 02, 2015, 06:13:17 AM
Pretty strong SWS from OHX. Watch likely from them later this afternoon:
Quote
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
539 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTER WEATHER MAY CAUSE MAJOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS ACROSS MID
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. THE COLDER AIR WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY...SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...AND THERE COULD
BE 3 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
.

TRAVEL WILL QUICKLY BECOME HAZARDOUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET. THE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAJOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE STORM SYSTEM
. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IF NEW DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL...A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
PEOPLE IN MID TENNESSEE...OR WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE AREA...SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR UPDATED WEATHER INFORMATION.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 02, 2015, 06:27:41 AM
6z NAM COBB for Nashville...

.16" of FRZ, .87" of IP, and .7" of snow

For Memphis...

.03" of FRZ, .92" of IP, and 1" of snow

For Bowling Green (BIG winners)...

.14" FRZ, 1.25" of IP, and 3.6" of snow


Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 06:35:20 AM
6z GFS much colder solution for BNA:

5.4" SN
.52" IP
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2015, 06:39:07 AM
6z GFS much colder solution for BNA:

5.4" SN
.52" IP
yep noticed that also... think that's going to be the trend also from here... Austin onick news 3 met... seems there is going to be more snow with this system... particular i40 north... liking the trends
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 02, 2015, 06:58:00 AM
yep noticed that also... think that's going to be the trend also from here...

I don't. The GFS is really on an island by itself giving us that much snow and less sleet/no freezing rain as well as being alone on timing.

I still am leaning towards a more sleet solution unless we see the NAM, CMC, UKMET and/or Euro start to show more snow.

Hopefully I am swayed today and the majority of the models start to show more snow, but I am not that confident the GFS still knows what to do.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: justinmundie on March 02, 2015, 07:03:46 AM
Euro has a little more snow as the GFS, but way more sleet. Its still the juciest of all models with like 1.5 total qpf frozen.

We'll start seeing forecast offices go with more specific totals in the afternoon package when the WS Watch is issued.

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Chipper31 on March 02, 2015, 07:09:50 AM
yep noticed that also... think that's going to be the trend also from here... Austin onick news 3 met... seems there is going to be more snow with this system... particular i40 north... liking the trends

For the last several years, the GFS' main utility to me has been as a visualization of what's NOT going to happen.  I'm taking everything from every model with a Gibraltar-sized grain of salt until the system is better-sampled...which means we've got another 24 hours of wild speculation, unfortunately.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: BRUCE on March 02, 2015, 07:11:24 AM
I don't. The GFS is really on an island by itself giving us that much snow and less sleet/no freezing rain as well as being alone on timing.

I still am leaning towards a more sleet solution unless we see the NAM, CMC, UKMET and/or Euro start to show more snow.

Hopefully I am swayed today and the majority of the models start to show more snow, but I am not that confident the GFS still knows what to do.
going to have to debate with u Charles on this bud... good debate is healthy though...   think models having hard time figuring the strength and push of this artic air... think results from that r models slightly over doing the warm nose at 700... think u see todays euro start to bite on that.. if not tonights 0z for sure with other globals... notice this mornings runs starting to show the ice getting further south now... tells me models starting to home in on this artic push... climo saysthis time year snow... though I remember last.. march quite well... though that was rare for that time year... models today going be interesting see how they handle the warm nose... I don't watch lot tv mets... but I do like news channel 3 out of Memphis... austen hinted on this this morning also... ::snowman::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 02, 2015, 07:14:18 AM
Quote
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LIKELY ACROSS MID-SOUTH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS MID-SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN
SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
ICE...SLEET AND SNOW ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
  SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ARE LIKELY.

* TIMING...6 AM CST WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: justinmundie on March 02, 2015, 07:20:40 AM
For the last several years, the GFS' main utility to me has been as a visualization of what's NOT going to happen.  I'm taking everything from every model with a Gibraltar-sized grain of salt until the system is better-sampled...which means we've got another 24 hours of wild speculation, unfortunately.

Thanks for chiming in Paul

For sure I used to feel that way - it is more of an unknown now since the parallel went operational. I don't feel like we've had enough time with it to determine how it behaves in certain situations... though it certainly does seem like its kept the bias of having too strong a northern stream, which may be why its pushing the cold air further south.

It was the first model to pick up on the strength of the cold air with this threat though. It had it a full 24 hours before the euro picked up on the strength of the cold and the second wave off the gulf.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 02, 2015, 07:23:14 AM
MEG already has 3 to 6 in my grids. Thats strong this far out.  ::fingerscrossed:: Heres to going out with a bang.  ::guitar::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 07:49:13 AM
OHX broke out the .gif generator this morning..

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image4.gif)
Quote
A strong cold front is foercast to plow across across northern and western parts of Middle Tennessee Wednesday morning, with temperatures rapidly falling out of the 50s and into the 30s. A wintry mix will develop over many of our northern and western counties...with precipitation likely switching over to all snow in the northwest by noon. Travel conditions are expected to become hazardous over those areas Wednesday morning, with wintry precipitation, along with worsening travel conditions, spreading across the rest of the Mid-State during the afternoon

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image16.gif)
Quote
By Wednesday evening, temperatures will have fallen into the lower and middle 20s over northern and western Middle Tennessee. Snow will be falling and accumulating and many roadways will likely be slick and hazardous. Meanwhile, a wintry mix will have spread into southern and eastern areas, along with worsening travel conditions. This mixed precipitation is expected to change to all snow by late evening, with snow continuing over most, if not all, of Middle Tennessee for the remainder of the night. Anyone planning travel across Middle Tennessee Wednesday night should realize that road conditions are expected to be very hazardous. Postponing travel plans would be a good idea if at all possible.

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image6.gif)
Quote
Thursday is expected to dawn with significant snow accumulations on the ground area-wide. Snow will be tapering off from the west, with mainly just flurries expected by mid-morning. It'll be feeling pretty raw outside by sunrise Thursday, with temperatures only in the upper teens to lower 20s, and gusty north winds producing wind chills in the single digits.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2015, 07:56:58 AM
OHX broke out the .gif generator this morning..

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image4.gif)
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image16.gif)
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image6.gif)

You all will have fun watching this one, I'm sure.  I bet everyone's eyes will be glued to the thermometer--watching it drop MINUTE BY MINUTE.   ::wow:: ::popcorn:: ::panic:: ::snow::

Yep, that's what I'd be doing.   ;)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 08:28:03 AM
9z SREF Plume plot for BNA.  Mean of ~2", with some clustering around 3".  That seems like a reasonable number to me.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150302&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BNA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 08:50:16 AM
12z NAM clown map.  Several people have mentioned that the InstantWxMaps clowns seem to pick up better on p-type gradients, thereby only showing actual snowfall.  If that's the case, this map seems reasonable.

(http://i62.tinypic.com/2a5gjnb.gif)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 09:17:17 AM
WPC discussion:

Quote
DAY 3...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL TX THROUGH NORTHERN LA
AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING DAY 3.
THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR BRINGING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FREEZING AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL
TX...NORTHERN LA THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR DEEP SOUTH INTO THE
INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC. THE MID LEVELS COOL OFF MORE SLOWLY...AS
THE FLOW SLOWLY BACKS. THIS SETUP SETS THE STAGE FOR FREEZING
RAIN...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL TX THROUGH
SOUTHERN AR INTO NORTHERN MS AND NORTHWEST AL SHOWED A CLASSIC
FREEZING RAIN PROFILE ON THIS AXIS. THE ABOVE SUPPORTS AN AREA OF
0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF FROM SOUTHERN AR ACROSS NORTHERN
AL...NORTHWEST AL AND SOUTHWEST TN.

FURTHER NORTH...THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO THE THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE COLUMN IS IN A STATE OF
TRANSITION...REACHING THE POINT WHERE IT CAN SUPPORT SNOW DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN INTO THE REGION (MOISTURE FLUX VALUES ARE VERY HIGH)...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR
THROUGH NORTHWEST TN/KY INTO MUCH OF WV. IN FACT...THE MOST RECENT
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOWED A NUMBER OF MEMBERS WITH 12+ INCH
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL CENTERED ON KY AND WV...AND MANY MEMBER WITH 8+
INCH POTENTIAL FROM AR INTO WESTERN PA. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE
IN TRANSITION...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST...SNOWFALL
VALUES FOR NOW ARE CAPPED AT LESS THAN A FOOT. HOWEVER...IF THERE
IS MORE IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS MUCH SNOW MAY RISE.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 09:19:34 AM
WPC:
Quote
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE N-CNTRL U.S. TUE
EVENTUAL STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHEAST THU MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/CMC
CONFIDENCE: A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z UKMET ARE TOWARD THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
EVENTUAL LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT FORMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WED AND
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKING EWD...AND THE 00Z GFS IS ON THE
FAST SIDE RELATIVE THE REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SREF/GEFS/EC
MEANS SUGGEST THE GFS IS TOO WEAK WITH A SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE
WHICH ALLOWS THE COLD FRONT TO MORE QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTH AND
EAST. THE ECMWF TRENDED SLOWER SINCE FOUR CYCLES AGO AND HAS BEEN
RATHER STEADY WITH ITS LAST TWO CYCLES. CURRENT ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUPPORT A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE SLOWER NAM/UKMET BUT ENSEMBLE
SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE AND PREFER TO STAY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 09:24:39 AM
Found this and thought it was interesting.  For amounts of qpf below an 1" 72 hours out, it looks like Euro verifies better than the other suites.

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m1_72h_lmv.gif)

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_72h_lmv.gif)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 02, 2015, 09:32:54 AM
Meanwhile.....weather weenies like me...

(https://farm1.staticflickr.com/73/162935562_daf31c14c3.jpg)

The M8B is the BEST forecasting model!!!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 09:42:32 AM
12z NAM Cobb data is in....   (SN = snow, IP = sleet, ZR = freezing rain)

Nashville - 3.6" SN, .78" IP, .19" ZR

Hopkinsville/Ft. Campbell - 3.5" SN, .91" IP, .34" ZR

Memphis - 4.3" SN, 1.15" IP, .15" ZR

Jackson - 2.6" SN, 1.21" IP, .20" ZR

Linden - 2.5" SN, 1.03" IP, .17" ZR

Paducah - 3.6" SN, .91" IP, .24" ZR

Bowling Green - 5.9" SN, .37" IP, .24" ZR

Crossville - 1.1" SN, .39" IP, .19" ZR
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 02, 2015, 09:45:37 AM
We wanted a board wide hit, and that run would do it for sure.

Winter Storm Warnings for everyone.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 02, 2015, 09:49:02 AM
We wanted a board wide hit, and that run would do it for sure.

Winter Storm Warnings for everyone.

(http://cdn.meme.am/instances/55558854.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 09:56:08 AM
We wanted a board wide hit, and that run would do it for sure.

Winter Storm Warnings for everyone.

Problem is, according to the NAM, the fun stops at the Plateau.  What sweet justice THAT would be.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 10:00:15 AM
12z GFS...I'll just leave this here.

(http://i58.tinypic.com/wjgrag.gif)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 02, 2015, 10:01:29 AM
12z NAM Cobb data is in....   (SN = snow, IP = sleet, ZR = freezing rain)

Nashville - 3.6" SN, .78" IP, .19" ZR

Hopkinsville/Ft. Campbell - 3.5" SN, .91" IP, .34" ZR

Memphis - 4.3" SN, 1.15" IP, .15" ZR

Jackson - 2.6" SN, 1.21" IP, .20" ZR

Linden - 2.5" SN, 1.03" IP, .17" ZR

Paducah - 3.6" SN, .91" IP, .24" ZR

Bowling Green - 5.9" SN, .37" IP, .24" ZR

Crossville - 1.1" SN, .39" IP, .19" ZR
I'll take it
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: justinmundie on March 02, 2015, 10:01:51 AM
The clown above is not a forecast. Lord please understand its not a forecast.

But - probably 60% of that is sleet. We're now looking at 1.5 inches of qpf as frozen with higher ratio snowfall to close it out. We may be getting our due for the lack of snow for not just the last 4 years, but the last decade.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 02, 2015, 10:04:32 AM
12z GFS...I'll just leave this here.

(http://i58.tinypic.com/wjgrag.gif)
On second thought, I'll take this one here right off the showroom floor!

Is this the best model solution I've ever seen at this range.  I believe it is!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 02, 2015, 10:05:57 AM
The clown above is not a forecast. Lord please understand its not a forecast.

But - probably 60% of that is sleet. We're now looking at 1.5 inches of qpf as frozen with higher ratio snowfall to close it out. We may be getting our due for the lack of snow for not just the last 4 years, but the last decade.
Is that a 14 to 16 pocket on KBNA?
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 10:08:27 AM
Is that a 14 to 16 pocket on KBNA?

It is, but its WAY overdone. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 02, 2015, 10:08:42 AM
Is that a 14 to 16 pocket on KBNA?

It looks like that pocket is over Columbia and Linden.

Of course not all snow, but man what a hit that would be.

 it is going to change, no doubt, but what an absurd run under 80 hours out!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Drmaynard on March 02, 2015, 10:11:17 AM
Problem is, according to the NAM, the fun stops at the Plateau.  What sweet justice THAT would be.

What sort of a monster would HOPE for more winter weather after what they've had the past three weeks?
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 02, 2015, 10:11:45 AM
It is, but its WAY overdone.
Yes. I know but a big hit for sure.  I guess we'll all be eagerly awaiting COBB on this one.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: justinmundie on March 02, 2015, 10:13:16 AM
Its about 50% overdone from an accum standpoint. Its like .9 qpf of sleet, so almost 2 inches of sleet, and then the rest is snow, about .5-.6 of qpf. Given that ratios are increasing as the event winds down, you could conceivably have 8 inches of snow on top of 2 inches of sleet. Which would be nuts.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 02, 2015, 10:16:11 AM
Quote
Charlie Neese retweeted
 Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore  1h1 hour ago
Can't rule out some flooding in that snow/ice/heavy rain mess as well.  Liquid QPF through Thursday morning 7am.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_GZ6qiU8AA3gqc.png)

via Twitter
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: WXHD on March 02, 2015, 10:22:55 AM
Its about 50% overdone from an accum standpoint. Its like .9 qpf of sleet, so almost 2 inches of sleet, and then the rest is snow, about .5-.6 of qpf. Given that ratios are increasing as the event winds down, you could conceivably have 8 inches of snow on top of 2 inches of sleet. Which would be nuts.

Would make for some great sledding though!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: BALLPARK on March 02, 2015, 10:34:19 AM
This would be a good time for everyone to get prepared with there winter emergency kit.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: aubieman on March 02, 2015, 10:36:30 AM
Might just patch this snow hole:

(http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201503/nsm_depth_2015030205_National.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Crockett on March 02, 2015, 10:38:10 AM
The 12z GFS can take a hike. Sorry for you Nashville folks rooting for snow, but I don't want it so I'm rooting against you all.  ;D
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2015, 10:46:27 AM
We wanted a board wide hit, and that run would do it for sure.

Winter Storm Warnings for everyone.

Problem is, according to the NAM, the fun stops at the Plateau.  What sweet justice THAT would be.

After almost a half inch of ice, and two significant snows, the board is more than welcome to get this one.  Already stated, I'd give up mine to see you guys get a decent one before the books are closed on 2014-15 Winter.  Not quite as enjoyable if everyone else isn't in on it.  Snowdog really needs this one. 

A real state-wide hit is about next to impossible, anyway.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Michael on March 02, 2015, 10:48:22 AM
Looks like us folks in East TN can sit back and watch this one. Maybe an inch or so in the valley. The last two weeks has already produced 12"+ total IMBY. I'll take a measly inch or so this go around. Good luck mid/west TN folks! Hope you see a lot!


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Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 11:21:22 AM
12z GFS Cobb numbers:

Nashville - 5.2" SN, 1.33" IP, .36" ZR

Ft. Campbell/Hopkinsville - 7.3" SN, .87" IP, .13" ZR

Memphis - 4.4" SN, 2.11" IP, .07" ZR

Jackson - 3.1" SN, 1.68" IP

Paducah - 7.3" SN, .35" ZR

Bowling Green - 7.6" SN, .62" IP, .19" ZR

Crossville - 1.2" SN, 1.25" IP, .33" ZR
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Michael on March 02, 2015, 11:46:39 AM
Just curious... how accurate is the COBB data? I see it posted a lot. I just learned where to find it a couple weeks ago. It seemed to be more accurate for the NAM moreso than the GFS during the multiple events we saw in East TN last week or so.


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Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 02, 2015, 11:50:28 AM
Quote
Justin Bruce ‏@just1nbruce  2m2 minutes ago
This is the state that I think gets screwed with winter weather Wednesday afternoon and evening.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_HDIhSUwAAd6xo.jpg)

Met humor....
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: BALLPARK on March 02, 2015, 11:51:05 AM
Check this website out with the break down of 12z GFS precips, temps and wind. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBNA
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on March 02, 2015, 11:55:25 AM
Everybody get their ::popcorn:: ready!! it's gonna  ::snowman::!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 02, 2015, 12:12:42 PM
Wait...screwed in which direction? The classic way (see two weeks ago, 3/2/14, 2/10/06, etc.) or the 1/16/2003, 3/8/2008 way?
Had to search for the full forecast which wasn't available via Twitter:

Quote
School Closings & Delays
Weather Alerts
We’ll be partly cloudy today with highs limited to the middle 40s this afternoon and a breeze from the northeast. Areas east and south of Nashville will have a mostly cloudy sky and slightly cooler temperatures.

THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE BEGINS:

A warm front tonight will keep temperatures in the low 40s as rain showers return to the area Tuesday morning. Occasional showers and possibly some thundershowers are in the forecast tomorrow as a southwest wind lifts temperatures to the 60s by the afternoon. It won’t be an all day washout.

A strong cold front pushes in Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, bringing a line of heavy rain and possibly some additional thunderstorms. Colder air pushes in with morning temps in the 50s quickly falling through the 40s and into the 30s by the early afternoon in Nashville on a north wind. That should change the rain to freezing rain, then sleet, then snow in the afternoon and evening, with a snow chance lasting into early Thursday morning.

If the ice and sleet start on schedule travel could be slippery by the Wednesday afternoon commute. It’s too early to know with confidence how much snow we could see, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a few inches of snow were on the ground by Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This could cause widespread travel problems as temps fall to the teens by Thursday morning. Thursday will be a very cold day for early March with temperatures only rising to the upper 20s. Friday might start in the low teens before we climb to the upper 30s in the afternoon on a mostly sunny sky.

50s should return by next weekend.

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 02, 2015, 12:32:50 PM
1600 MEMBERS!! CONGRATS!!!!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: dave on March 02, 2015, 12:51:25 PM
Great video analysis here of various models by WSMV's Paul Heggen:
https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/2015/03/02/march-4-winter-storm/


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Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clay on March 02, 2015, 02:09:40 PM
(http://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/59785493.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 02, 2015, 02:10:46 PM
Here is the in-a-nutshell results from LMK Conference Call regarding this week's storm via Jeremy Kappell (WDRB 41 Louisville):

http://fox41blogs.typepad.com/wdrb_weather/2015/03/nws-conference-call-concerning-approaching-winter-storm.html
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 02, 2015, 02:37:49 PM
Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
234 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NOON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PLENTY OF
RAIN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY SNOW
LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST
OF THE REGION TOMORROW WILL FALL TO HIGHS IN THE 20S BY THURSDAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT PASSES
ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN...TO A MIX OF PRECIP
CONSISTING OF FREEZING RAIN SLEET AND SNOW...AND FINALLY TO ALL
SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SNOWFALL AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH FREEZING
RAIN CAUSING ICE ACCUMULATION TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL. MAJOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
Quote
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...FROM NOON CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH NOON CST THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH UP TO A
  TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.


* MAIN IMPACT...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
  CREATE MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
  DAY ON FRIDAY.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING
  FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY WHICH MAY EXTEND
  HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
  WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mtcards on March 02, 2015, 02:51:09 PM
Im not buying the NAM until it gets consistent with it timing.  It may turn out to be right, but the last few runs have been waffling on the timing by significant amounts.   I dont buy the Euro either FWIW.   
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 02, 2015, 03:44:05 PM
Via NWS Nashville Facebook
Quote
Alright Middle Tennessee, it is time to deal with one more wintry mess. We have issued a winter storm watch for Wednesday at noon through Thursday at noon. We will see rain transition to a mix and then to all snow. Even after the snow ends travel conditions will remain hazardous due to cold temperatures through the end of the work week. At this point try not to focus solely on how much snow you are going to get as this may change as we get closer to the event. What you need to know is that we expect major travel impacts starting Wednesday afternoon. Check back frequently for the latest information.
(https://scontent-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/p600x600/10665777_801232183286401_5376183031664482167_n.jpg?oh=6b84e49075103e5e3ff2f4c7383a7728&oe=559697C3)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2015, 03:45:37 PM
Looks like my family in KY is sure in the run for a another big hit...

2-2.5 inches of rain, followed by 6-8 inches of snow.  Wowzers...what a forecast.   ::wow::

From JKL:

Quote
IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING
STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF
24 HOURS.

AS FOR SNOW RATIOS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN AT ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIP WHICH WOULD LOWER SNOW TOTALS A BIT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH WOULD ENSURE COLD
ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A STRONG MENTION
IN THE HWO. QPF VALUES WILL GO FROM 2 TO 2.50 INCHES AND SNOWFALL
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 03:51:10 PM
OHX:

Quote
AN INITIALLY SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE
FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  BECAUSE OF THIS
SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR AND A DEEP LAYER OF WARM AIR JUST ABOVE
IT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE INDICATIVE OF A
TRANSITION FROM THE LIQUID PRECIP TO A COUPLE OF HOURS OF FREEZING
RAIN...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN TO
ALL SNOW FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  IF THERE'S ANY GOOD NEWS...IT'S
THAT THE LOW 60S TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING MUCH ICE FROM DEVELOPING BEFORE THE CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET. THE DOWNSIDE...POST-FRONTAL QPFS ARE STILL WHAT
SEEM TO BE RIDICULOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. THESE POST-
FRONTAL WINTER SYSTEMS FOR MIDDLE TN USUALLY ONLY YIELD 1 TO 2
INCHES AT THE MOST...BUT WITH THE FACT THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN AN
UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR AWHILE NOW...THESE UNUSUALLY HIGH QPFS MAY NOT
BE TOO OUT OF LINE. I MAINTAIN THAT THEY ARE STILL A LITTLE TOO
HIGH...BUT EVEN STAYING ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE SNOW/SLEET
AMOUNT YIELDS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40...BUT
I'M STILL HOLDING ONTO 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THESE KINDS OF SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS WILL HAVE
MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MID-STATE...NOT ONLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT IS GOING TO BE VERY INTENSE. EVEN WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THU/FRI/SAT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS ON THURSDAY
MAY ONLY REACH 30 AT THE MOST...AND SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE LOOKING VERY LIKELY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
NORTHERN MIDDLE TN. THIS MEANS ANYTHING THAT REMAINS ON AREA
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY LESS TRAVELED SECONDARY ROADS...IS GOING TO
CONTINUE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

THE QUESTION WAS RAISED TODAY ABOUT OUR LAST COUPLE OF SYSTEMS
AND HOW THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER STUCK AROUND LONGER CREATING MORE
ICE THAN SNOW/SLEET. THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED...BUT WITH THIS SET UP...THIS IS LESS LIKELY TO
OCCUR AND IS WHY WE ARE FOCUSING MORE ON THE SLEET AND SNOW
POTENTIAL VS THE ICE POTENTIAL THIS TIME AROUND.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 03:54:08 PM
18z GFS clown map.   ::whistling::

(http://i61.tinypic.com/14mqfxu.gif)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 02, 2015, 04:24:53 PM
18z GFS clown map.   ::whistling::

(http://i61.tinypic.com/14mqfxu.gif)

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2015, 04:33:57 PM
Per MRX:

Quote
THE HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES BY THE EVENING COULD LEAD
TO AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD
OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE...QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER...SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT NEEDED ATTM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY MAKE IT`S
WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
FOLLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE IS STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SUBFREEZING AIR AND WHAT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS SUBFREEZING
AIRMASS HAS BEEN KNOWN TO GET HUNG UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
PLATEAU...SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHING THE ICING THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE VALLEY IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS
. SO THE QUESTION BECOMES...WHEN
DOES THIS AIR BLEED INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY? HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS OF
EAST TENNESSEE WILL SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS...FOLLOWED
BY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE VALLEY...SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION A COLD RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...BEFORE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS AND THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. HAVE TRIED TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIABILITY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED THIS
THINKING OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
VALLEY FOR NOW.

Whatever happens, looks like a good night for Pizza.  1-2 inches of rain looks pretty likely. I was hoping for thunderstorms, but instability seems to be lacking now. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 04:35:46 PM
Great video analysis here of various models by WSMV's Paul Heggen:
https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/2015/03/02/march-4-winter-storm/


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Great video.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: dave on March 02, 2015, 04:40:51 PM



(http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/03/02/5d5385c6704461b1b2ffa929037dd622.jpg)


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Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 02, 2015, 04:44:06 PM
(http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/03/02/5d5385c6704461b1b2ffa929037dd622.jpg)


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Don't bother.....they're......here!!!!   ::guitar:: ::rofl:: ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on March 02, 2015, 05:20:41 PM
As far fetched as some of these outputs seem... I must say this: The 1892, 1993, 1996, 2008, and 2009 storms, which all occurred in March, did spit out, in some areas, inordinate amounts of snow from 8 inches all the way to 28 inches. Nashville's biggest snow did happen in March of 1892, and the last 8"+ snowstorm officially recorded was in March of 1996. Furthermore, while Nashville did not officially measure significant accumulations in 2008 or 2009, some areas received up to 13" in 2008 and up to 18" in 2009.  While I do, as is the consensus on the board, feel that these maps are overdone, they are not without precedent, even if the setup is unique/rare. I'm taking 14-16" with a serious grain of salt, but I cannot fully discount this possibility, however rogue such a possibility may be.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2015, 05:37:56 PM
Enjoy your snow west and mid Tennesseans.  It will look like this soon enough.  ;D

(http://i62.tinypic.com/wik1si.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: working4xwife on March 02, 2015, 05:52:49 PM
Great video analysis here of various models by WSMV's Paul Heggen:
https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/2015/03/02/march-4-winter-storm/


Thats sums it up for me ......  ::bagoverhead...:bring it on :::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 02, 2015, 05:53:37 PM
I would like to cover some points as guidance continues to evolve today....

1) There's an obvious battle among guidance regarding the timing of the cold front that ushers in the colder air into the region. Essentially you have the GFS/ECMWF and its ensembles vs. the NAM/UKMET/GGEM (to an extent). WPC's afternoon model discussion leaned heavily toward the former model camp. At this point...I have to as well. Primarily...the GFS and ECMWF have the highest horizontal model resolution of the group. Therefore...they should be able to better resolve the speed of the arctic air...which in these situations tends to move faster...not slower. Both of these models have been very consistent in their timing since Friday-Saturday. Remember in these setups the low-level cold tends to leak down the MS River Valley/Delta faster...and get hung up in the Ozarks/Cumberland Plateau longer. I expect the same in this case. Essentially...W and Middle TN (especially along and W of I-65) are favored for the highest impact winter weather accumulations...all else being equal.

2) This setup is a pretty classic situation for training...overrunning convection...almost similar to a Spring flood. As the front stalls south of the region...the upper flow is parallel to the boundary (running SW-NE)...as the region sits in the favorable exit region of a powerful 120kt upper level jet with strong diffluence aloft. This creates an incredible lift regime to force convection that overruns the cold air. Where this regime sets up is key to who receives the heaviest amounts of precipitation...but the GFS and ECMWF have been pretty consistent in setting up that region roughly along I-40 Wednesday afternoon and evening. That could move with the remaining model margin of error...but so far it has been pretty consistent. And yes...I said convection. The GFS indicates incredible lift in the 700 mb region would indicate likely thunder. Also...QPF amounts could be underdone where convection sets up and persists.

3) Precipitation Types...This is obviously the toughest part. Right now GFS/ECMWF sounding data continues to indicate the CAA will be very strong in the surface to 900 mb layer...which should allow for a quick transition to sleet. A period of freezing rain would be possible as that occurs...but I'm not sure it would be beyond a few hours. The warm nose above 900 mb to around 700 mb is very strong...but as the layer below that cools...it will exceed the -6C threshold to allow for melted snowflakes (rain) to refreeze into sleet pellets. The warm nose will continue to cool through the evening...and eventually snow would occur. But the exact timing of that is even more uncertain...and really it's tough to say how much sleet vs. snow. Any snow that occurs would be fairly high ratio (perhaps as high as 20:1) as surface and temperatures aloft will have plummeted by that time. I feel rather confident that the period of freezing rain is brief enough to where surface temperatures won't stall out as we saw last March in the I-40 corridor due to the strong CAA just above the surface...but light icing could occur in that interim period.

4) I'm seeing some evidence in the chat of some members slightly confused by the "clown" maps indicating 10"+ of snow and thinking that's a realistic outcome. IT IS NOT. Most of those maps do nothing more than take the amount of liquid precipitation at/below 32...multiply it by 10 and call it snow. Unless there is a major trend colder/warmer in the days to come...this looks to be a majority SLEET event for those impacted by it. As said in point #3...some snow is still expected...and yes it may be accompanied by higher than average ratios...but most of that liquid will not be in that form. Nobody is calling for a snowstorm and certainly nobody is calling for double digit accumulations in Tennessee. Don't set your expectations on that...or else your disappointment on Wednesday is going to be enormous...and you're going to be ready to place blame on people that never said such to begin with.

5) I don't want to get fancy on snow/sleet accumulations since exact precipitation amounts and duration of each type will determine how exactly that plays out...and that's just simply impossible at this time. However...if the favored GFS/ECMWF camp holds to its solution...then high impacts can be expected. Multiple inches of one/both sleet and snow could effectively cripple the transportation network for a day or two...with cold air entrenched through at least Friday. This is not a certain outcome...but it would be wise to begin making preparations for such. Winds will be rather strong...gusts over 30 mph possible. So long as major icing doesn't come into play...and again I feel it's not at this time...this shouldn't be too much of a worry for things like power outages/tree damage...etc. If the changeover to snow occurs...could allow for blowing snow toward the end of the event. Probably wouldn't affect road conditions too much because if they are in fact packed with sleet...well that's not going anywhere or getting better anytime soon.

6) Back to the NAM...seems there was a minor freakout over it's 18z run and a lot of people are all of a sudden hedging their bets because of the perceived "better" job its done on systems this year. While the GFS has struggled lately...the upgraded resolution of the model should make it stronger in this type of setup...and the ECMWF being in-line with it bolsters that confidence for me. On the other hand...the NAM's "wins" the past two events came with how it handled the vertical profile and warm nose...and notably last Wednesday while GFS was woefully behind the NAM overreached and was too far Northwest in itself in where snow accumulations would occur. This is a *completely* different type of setup than both President's Day and last Wednesday...so don't carry over the NAM's perceived success as having any bearing here. As said in a previous post...this is not an organized SLP...there's no such thing as a "NW Trend" possible here in the sense you want to think of...as there was in the previous winter storms. Now...does that mean the chance it could be onto something is 0%? Of course not...but when looking at everything together...including ensemble data...the reasonable place to be is with the GFS/ECMWF. Again...this all comes down to the timing of that front to put the cold air into place...and history always argues to go fast vs. slow when faced with this scenario.

But...this event remains 48-60 hours out...so that does remain a bit of an "eternity" when talking about a Winter Storm in TN. Still...let's try to let cooler heads prevail for at least another 3 hours until the 0z NAM runs. ;-)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 02, 2015, 06:14:11 PM
(http://i61.tinypic.com/t9fu5i.png)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 02, 2015, 06:34:22 PM
I would like to cover some points as guidance continues to evolve today....

1) There's an obvious battle among guidance regarding the timing of the cold front that ushers in the colder air into the region. Essentially you have the GFS/ECMWF and its ensembles vs. the NAM/UKMET/GGEM (to an extent). WPC's afternoon model discussion leaned heavily toward the former model camp. At this point...I have to as well. Primarily...the GFS and ECMWF have the highest horizontal model resolution of the group. Therefore...they should be able to better resolve the speed of the arctic air...which in these situations tends to move faster...not slower. Both of these models have been very consistent in their timing since Friday-Saturday. Remember in these setups the low-level cold tends to leak down the MS River Valley/Delta faster...and get hung up in the Ozarks/Cumberland Plateau longer. I expect the same in this case. Essentially...W and Middle TN (especially along and W of I-65) are favored for the highest impact winter weather accumulations...all else being equal.

2) This setup is a pretty classic situation for training...overrunning convection...almost similar to a Spring flood. As the front stalls south of the region...the upper flow is parallel to the boundary (running SW-NE)...as the region sits in the favorable exit region of a powerful 120kt upper level jet with strong diffluence aloft. This creates an incredible lift regime to force convection that overruns the cold air. Where this regime sets up is key to who receives the heaviest amounts of precipitation...but the GFS and ECMWF have been pretty consistent in setting up that region roughly along I-40 Wednesday afternoon and evening. That could move with the remaining model margin of error...but so far it has been pretty consistent. And yes...I said convection. The GFS indicates incredible lift in the 700 mb region would indicate likely thunder. Also...QPF amounts could be underdone where convection sets up and persists.

3) Precipitation Types...This is obviously the toughest part. Right now GFS/ECMWF sounding data continues to indicate the CAA will be very strong in the surface to 900 mb layer...which should allow for a quick transition to sleet. A period of freezing rain would be possible as that occurs...but I'm not sure it would be beyond a few hours. The warm nose above 900 mb to around 700 mb is very strong...but as the layer below that cools...it will exceed the -6C threshold to allow for melted snowflakes (rain) to refreeze into sleet pellets. The warm nose will continue to cool through the evening...and eventually snow would occur. But the exact timing of that is even more uncertain...and really it's tough to say how much sleet vs. snow. Any snow that occurs would be fairly high ratio (perhaps as high as 20:1) as surface and temperatures aloft will have plummeted by that time. I feel rather confident that the period of freezing rain is brief enough to where surface temperatures won't stall out as we saw last March in the I-40 corridor due to the strong CAA just above the surface...but light icing could occur in that interim period.

4) I'm seeing some evidence in the chat of some members slightly confused by the "clown" maps indicating 10"+ of snow and thinking that's a realistic outcome. IT IS NOT. Most of those maps do nothing more than take the amount of liquid precipitation at/below 32...multiply it by 10 and call it snow. Unless there is a major trend colder/warmer in the days to come...this looks to be a majority SLEET event for those impacted by it. As said in point #3...some snow is still expected...and yes it may be accompanied by higher than average ratios...but most of that liquid will not be in that form. Nobody is calling for a snowstorm and certainly nobody is calling for double digit accumulations in Tennessee. Don't set your expectations on that...or else your disappointment on Wednesday is going to be enormous...and you're going to be ready to place blame on people that never said such to begin with.

5) I don't want to get fancy on snow/sleet accumulations since exact precipitation amounts and duration of each type will determine how exactly that plays out...and that's just simply impossible at this time. However...if the favored GFS/ECMWF camp holds to its solution...then high impacts can be expected. Multiple inches of one/both sleet and snow could effectively cripple the transportation network for a day or two...with cold air entrenched through at least Friday. This is not a certain outcome...but it would be wise to begin making preparations for such. Winds will be rather strong...gusts over 30 mph possible. So long as major icing doesn't come into play...and again I feel it's not at this time...this shouldn't be too much of a worry for things like power outages/tree damage...etc. If the changeover to snow occurs...could allow for blowing snow toward the end of the event. Probably wouldn't affect road conditions too much because if they are in fact packed with sleet...well that's not going anywhere or getting better anytime soon.

6) Back to the NAM...seems there was a minor freakout over it's 18z run and a lot of people are all of a sudden hedging their bets because of the perceived "better" job its done on systems this year. While the GFS has struggled lately...the upgraded resolution of the model should make it stronger in this type of setup...and the ECMWF being in-line with it bolsters that confidence for me. On the other hand...the NAM's "wins" the past two events came with how it handled the vertical profile and warm nose...and notably last Wednesday while GFS was woefully behind the NAM overreached and was too far Northwest in itself in where snow accumulations would occur. This is a *completely* different type of setup than both President's Day and last Wednesday...so don't carry over the NAM's perceived success as having any bearing here. As said in a previous post...this is not an organized SLP...there's no such thing as a "NW Trend" possible here in the sense you want to think of...as there was in the previous winter storms. Now...does that mean the chance it could be onto something is 0%? Of course not...but when looking at everything together...including ensemble data...the reasonable place to be is with the GFS/ECMWF. Again...this all comes down to the timing of that front to put the cold air into place...and history always argues to go fast vs. slow when faced with this scenario.

But...this event remains 48-60 hours out...so that does remain a bit of an "eternity" when talking about a Winter Storm in TN. Still...let's try to let cooler heads prevail for at least another 3 hours until the 0z NAM runs. ;-)
That is just one incredible post, Kevin.  Thanks for your contributions both here and in the past. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2015, 08:25:18 PM
This is one very interesting weather system.  This has the scent of many "classic" winter weather events from the 80's and 90's.  Let's face it--a "mature" cyclone in the our neck of the woods brings with it WAA, or the notorious "northwest trend."  That's why most of our BIG events in the Mid-South, Southeast, and the Southern Appalachians are slow moving Arctic/Polar fronts with small-scale "ripples" or low-pressure systems that aren't the typical mature cyclone that produces the heavy snows in the Midwest or Northeast.  Such powerhouses are the death knell for winter precipitation here (excluding the Super storm of 1993) due to their proclivity to pull too much warm air into our neighborhood, whether at the surface or aloft. 

One of the big snows in the infamous winter of 84-85 was around January 19-21.  It, too, was a slow moving Arctic front that dropped a good deal of snow around Mid-South and Lower Ohio Valley.  While this is March, not January, and the level of cold coming is not comparable to then, it's still a similar situation--a slow moving cold front with small scale low-pressures slowing the front and pulling moisture back into the cold air behind it.

Whatever happens, it's going to be fun to watch, even if my part of the state is only on the edge.  It certainly has the potential to be memorable.

Enjoy!   8)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 02, 2015, 09:16:57 PM
Cruised chat for a moment.  Heard the pelt, pelt of sleet falling, and it didn't seem to be a happy place.

Well, look at it this way.  It's March.  Severe weather season is almost here. 

(http://ffden-2.phys.uaf.edu/211_fall2010.web.dir/Levi_Cowan/images/cumulonimbus.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clay on March 02, 2015, 09:34:33 PM
Latest from OHX:

Quote
LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...00Z NAM...21Z
SREF...AND HPC CONTINUE OVERALL TREND FOR WINTER STORM ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF QPF BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CREATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RESULTANT DOMINANT PRECIP TYPES
AND ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR CWA. 00Z NAM IN PARTICULAR BRINGS COLD
FRONT MUCH MORE SLOWLY INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY VERSUS OTHER
MODELS AND KEEPS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STEADY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
DESPITE STRONG CAA. THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE AS THE POTENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG CAA SHOULD FORCE COLD FRONT
MORE QUICKLY/FURTHER THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRASTICALLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT A LA THE GFS/ECMWF. FORECAST ALREADY LEANS
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. OF
NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CONSIDERABLE WARM
NOSE AROUND 750MB FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE
FZRA/IP VERSUS SNOW. ALSO OF NOTE...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE NO
COMPARABLE SNOW EVENTS TO THIS ONE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH
SHOWS HOW UNUSUAL THIS UPCOMING WINTER STORM SETUP WILL BE.

SHAMBURGER
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 09:39:35 PM
Cruised chat for a moment.  Heard the pelt, pelt of sleet falling, and it didn't seem to be a happy place.

Well, look at it this way.  It's March.  Severe weather season is almost here. 

(http://ffden-2.phys.uaf.edu/211_fall2010.web.dir/Levi_Cowan/images/cumulonimbus.jpg)

Oh how I have missed thee, Mr. Cumulonimbus.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: cgauxknox on March 02, 2015, 09:51:56 PM
Please tell me this .5-3" of ice from a local met in Knoxville is a clown map  ::faint::  http://www.local8now.com/weather?device=tablet&c=y
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 10:04:18 PM
Please tell me this .5-3" of ice from a local met in Knoxville is a clown map  ::faint::  http://www.local8now.com/weather?device=tablet&c=y

Honestly, I have no idea.  Maybe somebody who has looked at East TN data can chime in.   ;)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clay on March 02, 2015, 10:12:46 PM
Not to sound like a broken record but to those of you, especially lurking, who haven't dealt with large amounts of sleet.. ala..the December '04 sleet-meggedon at MEM or either of last year's events across AR/Northwest TN, if your area receives 1-3" of sleet with measurable snow on top, many roads will be impassible for a week or more even given the sun angle. Sleet is like no other. Start making your preparations soon because the possibility is becoming more and more likely for West and Middle TN.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: RobD on March 02, 2015, 10:17:54 PM
I stopped at/called about 10 stores tonight for rock salt/deicer. The Home Depot salesman told me their shipments had been diverted to the northeast because they had a storm. Well, we're going to have one too. Grrr.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Cyrgeetar on March 02, 2015, 10:23:44 PM
I stopped at/called about 10 stores tonight for rock salt/deicer. The Home Depot salesman told me their shipments had been diverted to the northeast because they had a storm. Well, we're going to have one too. Grrr.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Try TSC on Columbia Pk. I picked up 80lbs yesterday
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2015, 10:25:37 PM
Wanted to pass along some info regarding the 0z model runs for tonight.  I know some of you folks don't do chat and that's perfectly understandable.  This update is aimed at you.

0z NAM - Basically resembled the goofy 18z run, but seems to be trending back towards the Euro/GFS solutions.  QPF amounts were lighter and shunted northward, but belief is those amounts will shift back towards the aforementioned GFS/Euro before kickoff.

0z GFS - Still revealed a bloody damned mess for Wednesday/Thursday.  QPF amounts are all over the place, with the mean being 4-6" of a snow/sleet combo.  The critical 850mb freezing line wants to get hung up somewhere near I-65 and that means less snow and more sleet for the greater Nashville area.  Areas across the northwest - say Clarksville, Dover, Hoptown - will see the greatest amounts of snow.  There also appears to be a possible of some convective elements in the greatest areas of qpf concentration.  This will undoubtedly lead to more qpf than modeled for those affected.

I expect the 0z Euro to "hold serve" and stay with the GFS idea.  The consensus is that the NAM is out to lunch, and OHX has eluded to this in their most recent AFD.  Like Clay said below, take the time NOW/TOMORROW to get what you need to get.  Whether it be food, drink, firewood, etc.  Once this stuff starts accumulating Wednesday evening, nobody needs to be going anywhere.  Driving will quickly become treacherous and discouraged.  If there's one bright spot, it appears the freezing rain threat is rather low.  Yay.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 03, 2015, 03:04:43 AM
6z NAM looks more like the 18z run than the 0z one.

It really is not fast on moving this front through, which hurts the totals in the end.

Not sure I buy it being THAT slow.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 03, 2015, 03:13:49 AM
The good ole 0z Canadian is a sleet/ice storm...

Freezing rain from a trace to just around 1/2" near Memphis/northern MS. [attachimg=1]

Sleet accumulation of 1-2" from Memphis up through Nashville. [attachimg=2]

Maybe 2-3" of snow for the northern/NW counties, but the snow is mostly in KY. Shocker.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: MemphisJDJ on March 03, 2015, 03:21:34 AM
MEGs throwing out the NAM
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 03, 2015, 03:42:52 AM
Local metro grids (MEM) going 3 to 5.  AFD issued at 3:05, which is quite early so close to a major winter event.  I could infer from that that this was an easy decision for them this go around. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 03, 2015, 04:10:06 AM
6z GFS is wow...still a very major winter storm. QPF is through the roof.

It keeps a very heavy corridor of intense precip right along I-40 across western and middle sections of TN. It is not giving up on that scenario.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Coach B on March 03, 2015, 05:16:43 AM
OHX holding strong with accums:
Quote
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SLEET TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SWITCH-OVER TO
SNOW, AND THIS IS STRONGLY CONSIDERED WHEN ESTIMATING SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES SOUTH, TO BETWEEN
4 AND 5 INCHES NORTH
. SINCE SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS ARE STILL
QUESTIONABLE, ESPECIALLY AS IT RELATES TO THE AMOUNT OF SLEET THAT
WILL BE PART OF THE MIX, WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
PLACE
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2015, 05:25:44 AM
MRX:

Quote
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS/RUNS WITH MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT WARMER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VA AND THE
EAST TN MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE FAVORED AREAS. A FEW
POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PULLS AWAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS ANOTHER BLAST OF
COLD AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S. THE COLD...DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.


Heavy rain, possible flooding seems to be the bigger threat in East TN.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 03, 2015, 05:55:30 AM
6z Cobb data for Bowling Green will make everyone here shake their head.

.28" of ZR, .78" of IP, and 11.4" of SN.  :o

Nashville...
.19" of ZR, 1.38" of IP, and 2.6" of SN.

Memphis...

.70" of ZR (gross), 1.91" of IP, and 1.8" of SN.



Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Coach B on March 03, 2015, 06:04:27 AM
6z Cobb data for Bowling Green will make everyone here shake their head.

.28" of ZR, .78" of IP, and 11.4" of SN.  :o

 ::bangingheadintowall:: ::shrug::
Missed to the south and east last week and to the northwest and north this week. lol

Actually, it's far from over yet and Nashville may very well get a very disruptive storm, but........
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 03, 2015, 06:06:36 AM
::bangingheadintowall:: ::shrug::

It's far from over yet and Nashville may very well get a very disruptive storm, but........

Yeah, not the snow amount we would want to see for Nashville, but over an inch of sleet with 1-2" of snow on top would make for disastrous travel.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 03, 2015, 06:25:25 AM
Meanwhile....signs are being put up along Interstates 65, 24, 40, and 75.


(http://i59.tinypic.com/5mibfo.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Sandra on March 03, 2015, 06:34:00 AM
For those who can't find salt in stores, get boxes of ice cream salt from grocery.  Krogers had them for 1.77.  Small box won't cover as much ground but just right for porch steps.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 03, 2015, 06:39:02 AM
For those who can't find salt in stores, get boxes of ice cream salt from grocery.  Krogers had them for 1.77.  Small box won't cover as much ground but just right for porch steps.

We've had three or four bags of salt for a few years and we've used them sparingly for that purpose only.  Great tip Sandra!!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Beth on March 03, 2015, 07:07:43 AM
For those who can't find salt in stores, get boxes of ice cream salt from grocery.  Krogers had them for 1.77.  Small box won't cover as much ground but just right for porch steps.
Also a friend of mine uses water softener that she gets at Tractor supply. She said it works great at melting ice! The last sleet and ice storm two weeks ago we could not find even regular salt on the store shelves here in Dickson! Salt was a scarse commodity here!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 03, 2015, 07:58:17 AM
Just wanted to repost this portion of last evening's AFD from OHX:

Quote
ALSO OF NOTE...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE NO
COMPARABLE SNOW EVENTS TO THIS ONE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH
SHOWS HOW UNUSUAL THIS UPCOMING WINTER STORM SETUP WILL BE
.

SHAMBURGER


 ::candle:: ::pondering:: ::pondering::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2015, 08:13:14 AM
WPC:

Quote
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC DURING DAY 2. AT THE SAME TIME...FALLING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGE TO BEGIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING HOW FAST THIS
OCCURS...WITH THE 00Z NAM/21Z SREF MEAN SHOWING THE SLOWEST
TRANSITION. THIS TREND HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW
CYCLES...AND THE TREND WOULD APPEAR TO MAKE THESE SOLUTIONS LOW
PROBABILITY EVENTS. A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ALLOWS THE
TRANSITION TO OCCUR SOONER...AND 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FROM SOUTHEAST
MO ACROSS KY/NORTHWEST TN INTO SOUTHERN OH...NORTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST PA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES WERE PLACED
ALONG THIS AXIS. THESE AMOUNTS WERE WELL SUPPORTED BY MEMBERS OF
THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...WITH NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN
OH IN THE CROSS HAIRS FOR 12+ INCH AMOUNTS.

THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE TOUGHER TO
DETERMINE...AS EVEN THE COLDER GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
TRANSITION ZONE WHICH FEATURED AN INCH OR TWO OF SLEET...EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TN. SOUTH OF
THIS LINE...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTHWARD...WITH MOST 00Z
MODEL SUITE MEMBERS SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING FROM CENTRAL TX ACROSS MUCH OF LA AND MS.
HOWEVER...WARM AIR REMAINS IN THE MID LEVELS...AS THE FLOW REMAINS
WEST SOUTHWEST. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED WARM AIR BETWEEN
750 AND 700 MB WITH PEAK TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS...SUPPORTING A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO. THERE WAS A MULTI
MODEL SIGNAL FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF ICE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERNMOST LA THROUGH WESTERN TN...WITH LOCAL 0.25
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AR.

Quote
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
  + COLD FRONT MOVING OUT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TODAY
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE N-CNTRL U.S. TUE
EVENTUAL STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHEAST THU MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE

BY TUE EVENING...TIMING DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR WITH A LEAD
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. THE 00Z UKMET REMAINS SLOWEST WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THE
00Z GFS BEGINS TO PULL AHEAD OF THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. THROUGH 12Z/04...ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHTS AT 500 MB
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH COMPARED TO SUN EVENING FOR LOCATIONS FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS TO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
SLOWER UKMET...BUT THE UKMET REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD.

BEYOND 12Z/04...THE 00Z NAM SHOWS UP AS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTLIER
WITH RESPECT TO ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHTS...AND THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 00Z GFS IS TOWARD THE FASTER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN TRENDS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
SLOWER GUIDANCE...PREFER TO STAY A BIT SLOWER THAN THE FASTER GFS.
THE SLOWER 12Z UKMET ADJUSTED FASTER WITH ITS 00Z RUN AND THE
FASTER 12Z ECMWF ADJUSTED SLOWER. CONVERGENCE! THEREFORE...SINCE
THE 00Z NAM IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED AND GIVEN THE TRENDING OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND CONSIDERATION OF THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEANS...A 00Z GFS/ECMWF BLEND IS PREFERRED...WHICH IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE LATEST 00Z UKMET.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Brian on March 03, 2015, 08:22:54 AM
We've had three or four bags of salt for a few years and we've used them sparingly for that purpose only.  Great tip Sandra!!
Our high school biology teacher taught us that salt makes plant cells expand explode and die.  I'm sure biology hasn't changed much since then so use your salt sparingly around sensitive plants or where you plan to plant.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 03, 2015, 08:27:42 AM
Our high school biology teacher taught us that salt makes plant cells expand explode and die.  I'm sure biology hasn't changed much since then so use your salt sparingly around sensitive plants or where you plan to plant.

True story. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: justinmundie on March 03, 2015, 08:30:46 AM
Review of the 12z NAM - its about 6 hours slower than the GFS/Euro and still a bit northwest with the heaviest axis of precipitation but over all, still a heavy sleet storm changing to snow for most. This is a good trend. It means that likely yesterday's runs were flukey and we're starting to narrow down a solution.

And if the NAM is just 3-6 hours too slow with surface temps, which I think is possible, you get considerably more sleet.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 03, 2015, 08:40:24 AM
Much more QPF on this run from the NAM. Very Euro/GFS like in that regard.  Still very slow with the freezing line, almost too slow.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 03, 2015, 08:53:48 AM
As has been mentioned quite a bit in chat....PLEASE do not let your guard down if you hear 1" - 2" of SLEET in the forecast.  Sleet is arguably the least-discussed/highest impact precip, and can be very, very dangerous.  It is SN'ICE and that is not NICE.

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Beth on March 03, 2015, 09:14:03 AM
(http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/03/03/b7a1ecb2e1360b9723684ef57b7bc93b.jpg)
(http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/03/03/ecad4cad6dcacf10dc302f5bf6e580b3.jpg)
This was our yard and driveway 2 weeks ago. This was not snow it was all sleet! The driveway was at least 2 inches thick and took 8 days for us to get it cleared. Sleet is just as slick as pure ice too. I wasn't brave enough to venture out but my daughter fell numerous times. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2015, 09:26:02 AM
12z NAM Cobb numbers:

Nashville - .3" SN, .78" IP, .06" ZR

Ft. Campbell/Hopkinsville - 4.9" SN, .48" IP, .17" ZR

Memphis - .7" SN, .64" IP, .10" ZR

Jackson - 1.0" SN, 1.07" IP, .53" ZR

Linden - .7" SN, .69" IP, .18" ZR

Paducah - 12.6" SN, .25" IP, .08" ZR

Bowling Green - 3.1" SN, .39" IP, ,07" ZR

Chattanooga - all rain
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Chipper31 on March 03, 2015, 10:25:29 AM
12z GFS did very little to change my overall thinking...SleetFest: The Unwanted Sequel.

https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/2015/03/03/march-4-5-winter-storm/ (https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/2015/03/03/march-4-5-winter-storm/)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2015, 10:32:45 AM
12z GFS did very little to change my overall thinking...SleetFest: The Unwanted Sequel.

https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/2015/03/03/march-4-5-winter-storm/ (https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/2015/03/03/march-4-5-winter-storm/)

Ugh... thanks for weighing in!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2015, 11:27:51 AM
Quote
Conference call with OHX just concluded.  Here's the Cliffnotes version:

- Few changes to previous forecast as modeling has changed.

- Moisture will be building today. 

- Best rain chances are tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon.

- Expect the rain to change to a wintry mix tomorrow afternoon, beginning in the NW counties.

- Expecting major travel impacts tomorrow evening and into Thursday.

- Very cold temps roll in Thursday.  Expect those travel impacts to hold into Friday.

- Freezing rain threat is minimal...may .10".

- Forecasted snow AND sleet accums: 4-6" across the NW and Upper Cumberland Plateau.  2-4" everywhere else.  Lowest accums will be across the far SE counties.

- Travel impacts will steadily go downhill through the day across the midstate.

- Most folks will probably not be able to get to work on Thursday.

- Expected changeover time: 12p-3p across the NW counties; 3-8p in Nashville, 8-12a across the southern I-24 corridor.

Modeling is still in a state of flux and these details can (and probably will change).  Stay tuned to your favored reliable weather source.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2015, 11:46:06 AM
(https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/q83/p180x540/11042672_801610156581937_6677582228439582998_n.jpg?oh=a6bfb49a3be94c9b3edab853582599a1&oe=558A1861)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 03, 2015, 11:57:13 AM
(https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/q83/p180x540/11042672_801610156581937_6677582228439582998_n.jpg?oh=a6bfb49a3be94c9b3edab853582599a1&oe=558A1861)

I don't know if they revised the wording just now but those totals include sleet:

(https://scontent-atl.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/q82/p600x600/11043257_801610939915192_2360453409056463070_n.jpg?oh=5696340123ad8b78bf18223c873a5125&oe=5591337F)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 03, 2015, 12:15:18 PM
(https://scontent-atl.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/11042956_801615379914748_8199473742499894112_n.jpg?oh=f3acf1c42912225144f1f84610e4c304&oe=5549255E)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 03, 2015, 12:40:39 PM
Is chat down?
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: WXHD on March 03, 2015, 12:54:45 PM
Does anyone know what the totals were for BNA on 2/16? I have it in my mind that we are looking at higher sleet amounts this time around. But, I'm crazy.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 03, 2015, 02:01:02 PM
 (http://i58.tinypic.com/259g6fd.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Storm Central on March 03, 2015, 02:57:03 PM
Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* EVENT...WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW.

* TIMING...BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
  UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
  LESS...CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS
  GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 03, 2015, 02:57:48 PM
**NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST**

Call #1 - 300 PM Tue 3/3/2015
Forecast Valid - 3/4-5/2015

Forecast Confidence: High (Event Occurrence) - Low (Types/Amounts)
Bust Potential: Low (Event Occurrence) - High (Types/Amounts)
Impact Level: High
Model Preference: GFS/ECMWF Blend


(http://i60.tinypic.com/15ckk0i.png)

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...

1) Precipitation Type: BRIEF SLEET TO SNOW. Amounts: 7-12"...isolated higher. BOOM - 12-16" ... BUST - 4-7"

2) Precipitation Type: BRIEF FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW. Amounts: 3-6"...isolated higher… GLAZE FREEZING RAIN. BOOM - 6-10” SNOW ... BUST - 1-3" SLEET

3) Precipitation Type: FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET…SNOW LATE. Amounts: 1.5-3"...isolated higher… ~2/10” FREEZING RAIN. BOOM - 3-5" SLEET/SNOW ... BUST – 1/2-1.5" SLEET 1/3” FREEZING RAIN

4) Precipitation Type: FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET…BRIEF SNOW LATE. Amounts: ~1/4” FREEZING RAIN… 1/2-1.5” SLEET/SNOW. BOOM – 1.5-3" SLEET/SNOW ... BUST - 1/3" FREEZING RAIN/SLEET

*Note - sleet/snow amounts represent a combined total of the two*

Discussion...Model guidance is beginning to converge on specifics regarding the overall synoptic setup that will lead to a major winter storm across the region Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. An unusually strong Arctic front will move southeast into the region through the day Wednesday, ushering in much colder air with it. At the same time, the front will slow if not stall somewhere over the lower Mid-South/TN Valley late Wednesday, as the upper level flow backs and becomes parallel to the boundary. As this occurs, a mid-level shortwave trough riding under a powerful 120+ kt upper-level jet will lead to strong amounts of lift and diffluence within its rear exit region, resulting in widespread moderate-heavy precipitation overrunning the colder air for a 12-18 hour period.

There have been some differences in the timing among guidance regarding the speed of the cold front, with the NAM/UKMET holding slower while the GFS/ECMWF hold faster. In the last 24 hours, these camps have begun converging on a blend, more so due to the slower ejection and backing of the upper trough, which slows the colder air slightly with eastward extent during the afternoon Wednesday, reorienting the cold front in a more direct southwest-northeast fashion. This forecast follows the still slightly faster GFS/ECMWF blend assuming an additional small bias to account for terrain effects expected on the progression of the initial surface cold air that these models are able to better capture with their horizontal resolution. Roughly…the surface freezing line should be entering NW Tennessee by Noon Wednesday, along a MEM to CKV axis around 3-5 PM, and from BNA to UOX (Oxford) at 7-9 PM, then crossing into the Cumberland Plateau and NW Sections of AL toward or after Midnight.

As strong lift increases in the afternoon hours, an axis of heavy precipitation is expected to develop and expand…and likely persist in near the same areas for several hours due to the parallel nature of the upper flow, creating something similar to a training effect. This axis appears likely to set up across Central and NE AR, far NW MS, W and NW Middle TN, and W and Central KY. In these areas, heavy precipitation rates and thunder will be possible, likely in some wintry precipitation form. Total wintry precipitation QPF could range from .75 to 1.5”…though there will likely be localized higher amounts where any convective precipitation moves and persists…which may significantly enhance precipitation totals. The exact location of this heavy precipitation axis is still uncertain and will be based on the precise timing/location of the cold front as the shortwave trough begins to eject. Minor shifts of 25-50 miles in either direction are possible…but are significant enough to where QPF amounts could alter greatly at any one location with such a shift.

What remains most uncertain is exact precipitation types and transition timing…and bust potential is rather high on this factor. Strong CAA in the surface to 900mb layer should move temperatures well below freezing in a fast manner, but the 850/700mb front will lag behind, resulting in a persistent warm nose that will take some time to completely erode. Completely eroding this warm layer will be critical to where the heaviest sleet vs snow falls as the precipitation axis slowly moves across. At this time, the most reasonable call is to place the predominant sleet vs. snow line running along a Clarksville, TN to Dyersburg, TN to Wynne, AR to Russellville, AR line.

North of there, a change to snow should occur earlier, though a period of heavy sleet and a glaze of freezing rain is likely. To the South, predominantly sleet can be expected after a period of moderate icing, then a change to snow late. The change to sleet will be precipitated by strong 900mb CAA which moves the subfreezing layer under the warm nose past -6C to as low as -10C within a few hours after the initial change from rain to freezing rain. Further NW, only brief sleet is expected before precipitation becomes all snow (with localized totals exceeding one foot possible), and further SE, mostly a freezing rain to sleet mixture is expected with a brief period ending as snow. Snow/Sleet amounts listed above represented a combined total of the two as exactly trying to pin down the transition will be near impossible. Any snow that does fall should fall at fairly high ratios (~15:1) as surface to 850mb temperatures will have cooled significantly by the time the warm nose is completely eroded.

Impacts...Significant impacts can be expected with this storm, as heavy amounts of sleet and snow will likely accumulate on roadways quickly and compact as cold air persists into Thursday and Friday. Travel will become treacherous and possibly impossible by late Wednesday into Thursday. Additionally, strong post frontal winds will create very low wind chills. Fortunately, significant icing is not expected with this system, though amounts in some areas at borderline ISW criteria with wind gusts approaching 30-35 mph could create isolated power outages…primarily in sections of NE MS, NW AL and S Middle TN. Ensure that preparations are completed tonight ahead of this storm’s arrival.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2015, 03:48:40 PM

Considering it's ice, this is one Winter Storm Watch I'm glad NOT to be in.

MRX seems to think a great deal is still "up in the air" (no pun intended) about this storm:

Quote
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MESSY WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COUPLED WITH
ENCROACHMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE NW. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGE OVER OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW AS THE
COLD AIR PUSHES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER ANY GIVEN AREA. HARDEST HIT
AREAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER QPFS...THUS NW PLATEAU AND
SW VA ESPECIALLY LEE AND WISE COUNTIES THERE. AMOUNTS OF WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.. AND TODAY/S
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THAT ARRIVAL...COULD BE A TREND
. SO
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIP IS LOW. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE PRECIP WANES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHETHER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS AROUND
CHA/TYS/TRI WILL BE NOTABLY IMPACTED IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS TIME. A
WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AND WILL INCLUDE THOSE METRO
AREAS...BUT STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2015, 03:54:52 PM
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...WE'VE HAD QUITE THE WARMUP TODAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE MID-STATE AND
WHILE THE SHOWER COVERAGE HASN'T BEEN GREAT...MANY ARE SEEING SOME
ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE...WHICH IS MITIGATING ANY THUNDER ATTM...BUT IT'S STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOMEONE TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
EVENING.

OUR APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM GETS RAMPED UP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.  WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE PLASTERED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  HERE AT HOME...WE ARE GOING TO RUN WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING STARTING AT 3 PM FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE
METRO AREA.  THIS START TIME IS A LITTLE LATER THAN I WOULD HAVE
SAID IT WAS GOING TO BE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF COLD AIR...AND A WARM ELEVATED
NOSE...IS GOING TO PRESENT CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET.  THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE'VE EXPERIENCED TODAY...AND
THAT WILL CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEGLIGIBLE IN THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS. 
AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SLEET
AS THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS BECOMES DEEPER...BUT THE WARM
NOSE HANGS ON TIGHT.  BY MIDNIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHWEST AS THE WARM NOSE FINALLY ERODES.  THROUGHOUT THE
SLEET/SNOW TIME FRAME...THE CONCERN IS STILL THE HIGH AMOUNT OF QPF
THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING.  THIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  FOR THIS REASON...WE ARE GOING TO HOLD ONTO
3-5 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA. 
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS KIND OF ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO CAUSE MAJOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

SIMILARLY TO THE NORTHWEST...THE REST OF THE MID-STATE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM THE RAIN TO THIS WINTRY MIX THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.  EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBED AREA...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.  1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA HAS WARRANTED ONLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ATTM.

THE KEY TO TOMORROW'S PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD LAYER BELOW THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE.  CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING 4-5KFT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS WHY WE'RE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE SLEET OVER THE FREEZING RAIN.  IF THE COLD LAYER
REMAINS MORE SHALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...THIS WOULD
LESSEN THE SLEET CONCERNS AND RAISE THE FREEZING RAIN TOTALS.  THIS
DEEP COLD LAYER THOUGH...HAS BEEN PREVALENT IN SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF
FORECAST MODELS.

AS I STATED EARLIER...WE HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE COLD AIR JUST GETS IN HERE LATER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WHAT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL
AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR IS GOING TO BE LIQUID.  THIS STILL SPELLS
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO THE WINTRY STUFF.  THIS
SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-STATE...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT MAY STILL HAVE LEFTOVER
SNOW/ICE FROM LAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.

THE OVERALL SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO GOING TO CAUSE THE SNOW TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...WE'RE GOING TO RUN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY AS
ACCUMULATION COULD CONTINUE ON THE PLATEAU.  WE SHOULD START RUNNING
OUT OF PRECIP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE WINTER FUN ISN'T OVER WHEN THE SNOW ENDS. 
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  EVEN
THOUGH WE WILL SEE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 THURSDAY...FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MIGHT JUST BARELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY.  BECAUSE
OF THIS...THE MELTING OF THE WINTRY STUFF ON THE GROUND MIGHT BE
VERY SLOW.  THE TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD BE LENGTHY...ESPECIALLY FOR
LESS TRAVELED ROADS.   BY SATURDAY THOUGH...WE SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 40S...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY FACILITATE A GOOD MELT.

ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS WINTRY WEATHER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO AT LEAST THAT'S SOMETHING TO
LOOK FORWARD TO.

UNGER
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 03, 2015, 03:55:14 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image3.gif)

Bah, humsleet.....
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 03, 2015, 04:14:05 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image9.gif)
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image7.gif)

WWA = no one paying attention
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 03, 2015, 04:31:55 PM
Meanwhile....I'm tired of hearing my family in Kentucky *gripe* about *another snow*....

 ::)

Servo is gonna put on her Sassy Hoverskirt!!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2015, 04:52:52 PM
Meanwhile....I'm tired of hearing my family in Kentucky *gripe* about *another snow*....

 ::)

Servo is gonna put on her Sassy Hoverskirt!!

My family lives near London, KY.  Just an hour and a half away.

I feel your pain.  ;)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: StormNine on March 03, 2015, 06:50:18 PM
One thing that makes this system so tough is that the changeover and timing of the changeover from rain to sleet or sleet to snow will be huge as far as amounts.  Even lighter amounts as far as impact will be significant due to rapidly falling temps.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: pirates1 on March 03, 2015, 07:28:37 PM
So Williamson County should not be too bad, right?  I see where they backed off and went with an advisory.  Maybe we won't get anything but rain.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Beth on March 03, 2015, 07:42:12 PM
Meanwhile....I'm tired of hearing my family in Kentucky *gripe* about *another snow*....

 ::)

Servo is gonna put on her Sassy Hoverskirt!!

Well it hurts when your brother south of you in Alabama brags about his 10 inches of snow last week. I think I need to move back to Bama to see a good snow again!  I need a Sassy Hoverskirt too! Do they have a website?
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 03, 2015, 08:30:34 PM
At first glance, the 0z NAM appears to bring the cold into the I40 corridor 3-4 hours sooner than previous runs. Also a good bit wetter than the previous runs, as it has shifted the axis of heavy precip right over the I40 corridor. QPFs approaching 2 inches from Little Rock to Memphis to Clarksville. Some of that will fall as rain...maybe 1.5" of some sort of frozen.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2015, 08:38:12 PM
So Williamson County should not be too bad, right?  I see where they backed off and went with an advisory.  Maybe we won't get anything but rain.
Do you not pay attention to any of the discussion that goes on around here?
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: justinmundie on March 03, 2015, 08:42:36 PM
The 0z NAM starts off tonights runs on a positive note. Colder quicker with frozen precipitation at BNA beginning early to mid evening, lasting until noon on Thursday as some snow. If the other models make a shift such as the NAMs - things could get crazy around here.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 03, 2015, 08:44:14 PM
Big difference in the 0z run from the 18z... best way to show this is with the accumulation map.

Just remember that this counts everything frozen as snow, so it will be skewed.

0z run (most recent)
[attachimg=1]

18z run
[attachimg=2]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: pirates1 on March 03, 2015, 09:16:05 PM
Do you not pay attention to any of the discussion that goes on around here?
I am on the very edge of Williamson County, less than half a mile from Maury County Line.  I just meant that it seems things are going to be worse on the other side of 40.  From what I am hearing the further South you go the less problems or accumulation.  I was being sarcastic (but hopeful) with hopefully we will get all rain.  I would much rather rain then sleet.  Yes sleet is a mess and I have family coming up next week from Texas that will cancel if there is any chance of if happening next week.  Didn't mean to offend anyone.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 03, 2015, 10:19:41 PM
**NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST**

Call #1 - 300 PM Tue 3/3/2015 *** Update 1020 PM Tue 3/3/2015
Forecast Valid - 3/4-5/2015


(http://i60.tinypic.com/15ckk0i.png)

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...

1) Precipitation Type: BRIEF SLEET TO SNOW. Amounts: 8-14"...isolated higher. BOOM - 14-18" ... BUST - 5-8"

2) Precipitation Type: BRIEF FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW. Amounts: 5-8"...isolated higher… GLAZE FREEZING RAIN. BOOM - 8-12” SNOW ... BUST - 3-5" SLEET/SNOW

3) Precipitation Type: FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET…SNOW LATE. Amounts: 2-5"...isolated higher… ~2/10” FREEZING RAIN. BOOM - 5-7" SLEET/SNOW ... BUST – 1-2" SLEET/SNOW 1/2” FREEZING RAIN

4) Precipitation Type: FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET…SNOW LATE. Amounts: ~1/3” FREEZING RAIN… 1-2” SLEET/SNOW. BOOM – 2-4" SLEET/SNOW ... BUST - 1/2-1" FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW

*Note - sleet/snow amounts represent a combined total of the two*

Update...Based on incoming 00z NAM/00z GFS guidance...which is continuing to converge towards a consensus solution...have updated amounts to reflect both an increase in QPF and enhanced possibility of higher snow totals as model soundings indicate a slight cooling aloft overnight Wednesday/Thursday morning as precipitation lingers that would promote a switch to snowfall...likely at high ratios (~15:1). Localized higher totals remain possible where convective precipitation and possible thunder occur. Amount totals remain a combined sleet/snow as the exact transition point remains difficult to pin down.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 03, 2015, 11:17:11 PM
Love Dave Brown's take on it. 1/4" - 1/2" sleet and 1" of snow for metro Memphis. Maybe 2" up around Dyersburg.

That guy is going to hang on to the end, isn't he?

And conversely, Tim Simpson says 4" for metro Memphis and that is probably conservative - and some areas will see 6-8".
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2015, 12:11:18 AM
The Euro, Canadian, GFS, and NAM have all increased snow prospects tonight along the 40 corridor in West/Mid TN. Good last minute trends to see.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 04, 2015, 04:12:54 AM
Not often that you see the word "blizzard" used in an AFD in TN but the MEG overnight AFD mentions "near blizzard" conditions.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Uncle Nasty on March 04, 2015, 05:30:08 AM
Not often that you see the word "blizzard" used in an AFD in TN but the MEG overnight AFD mentions "near blizzard" conditions.

Good luck Mempho! Man I hope like **** ya'll get dumped on, Nashville as well. I will be here in Chattanooga pulling for everyone.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 04, 2015, 05:34:13 AM
Good luck Mempho! Man I hope like **** ya'll get dumped on, Nashville as well. I will be here in Chattanooga pulling for everyone.
Thank you, uncle!   I'm glad you guys fit dumoed on last week.  A lot of peoole forget that you guys had a, long dry spell that only ended last year really. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 04, 2015, 05:44:49 AM
6z hi-res NAM (usual caveats and all)

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 05:57:49 AM
Quote
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...COLD AIR WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REPLACE OUR MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
READINGS WILL START TO TUMBLE OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT 3 AM CST, A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHED
FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS, AND SHOULD BE IN
THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 6 AM CST.

PREVIOUS PRECIP AND QPF GRIDS FROM THE LAST SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT
AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS, MAINLY DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE MAINLY A ZR/IP MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CSV-TO-
LAWRENCEBURG LINE. INDEED, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OVER THOSE
AREAS IN PARTICULAR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN AND BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE OUR ICE ACCUM GRIDS IF
NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN ZR BUT, OF COURSE, THAT COULD CHANGE. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX EVEN THOUGH IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING FOR THE
PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

DON`T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN OUR NW UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER NOON--PROBABLY AROUND 2 PM OR 3 PM IN THE CKV AREA. BY
NIGHTFALL EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE GETTING PRETTY SLOPPY
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM AREA, NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE TEMP PROBABLY WON`T REACH FREEZING
AT BNA UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. SO, EVEN THOUGH
NASHVILLE PROPER MAY NOT HAVE BAD ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRAVELERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY WORSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

TONIGHT, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. BY MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 6 AM CST OVER THE ENTIRE MID-STATE. STILL
LOOK FOR HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
NORTHWEST, RANGING TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE NORTH
WINDS WILL NOT. IN FACT, LOOK FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE MORNING, AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH. SNOW-COVERED SPOTS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER COULD SEE READINGS DROP TO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO WARM INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 06:02:27 AM
It's crunch time.  Here's hoping ya'll get the winter storm of your fantasies. Or at least of your better dreams.  ::sleeping::

Most of all, everyone stay safe.  Travel conditions look to go downhill in a hurry.  In the excitement, it's easy to get a lil' crazy... ::snow:: ::panic::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 06:05:52 AM
Good luck Mempho! Man I hope like **** ya'll get dumped on, Nashville as well. I will be here in Chattanooga pulling for everyone.

You and I will enjoy our 60 degrees here today.   ;)  Perhaps, we'll get lucky and hear a rumble of thunder.

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 06:11:43 AM
Quote
Justin Bruce ‏@just1nbruce  4m4 minutes ago
As the cold front crossed Nashville between 4 and 5 a.m. the temperature dropped 12°. It was 64° at 4 a.m. but we'll drop to 48° by 7 a.m.

All eyes on the temps today.

Dress for the weather at 3, not for the weather this morning.  #coldcoldrain

And add this gem from Facebook:

Quote
WKRN Neil Orne
3 hrs ·
63 degrees right now, snow this time tomorrow. Proof that "Mother Nature" is actually a guy. Can't make up its mind, all over the place, won't commit to a season, hot then cold, unable to plan, and drives the woman in his life crazy while trying to get dressed to go out. Wait, sorry, I'm trying to work out some personal stuff with this post. I'm better now, wait... no I'm not. I can't decide.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Farris_TN on March 04, 2015, 06:32:28 AM
Happy Winter Storm Day y'all!

I know that ice and stuff is dangerous, but it's time for NASHVILLE and MEMPHIS to join in on the Winter fun!

Most of the time NASHVILLE and MEMPHIS don't get along, but today we come together to avoid stupid Dome talk.

All those from NASHVILLE and MEMPHIS stand up, hold hands, and repeat after me:

Thunder is loud, Lightning is bright

The Snowdome is done, but not without a fight

It was a close call, the gradients were tight

An inch or more we'll get, it starts Wednesday night

Enjoy the Sleet and Snow, it's a beautiful kind of white

To quote Matthew McConaughey, "ALL RIGHT, ALL RIGHT, ALL RIGHT"




Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clint on March 04, 2015, 06:58:45 AM
6Z GFS Cobb Data

Memphis: SN 4.4", PL 1.20", ZR .26"
Nashville: SN 1.8", PL .66",  ZR .29"
Little Rock: SN 4.1", PL 1.40", ZR .28"
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: justinmundie on March 04, 2015, 07:10:14 AM
6Z GFS Cobb Data

Memphis: SN 4.4", PL 1.20", ZR .26"
Nashville: SN 1.8", PL .66",  ZR .29"
Little Rock: SN 4.1", PL 1.40", ZR .28"

The ratios for BNA on the 6z cobb are suspect to me. I'm not sure why we go from 12:1 then down to 7:1 - that's where probably the biggest forecast quandary is at this point. What kind of snow ratios do we get. If we're upwards of 15:1 BNA's total snow goes up to near 3 inches.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 07:12:41 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0112.gif)
Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0640 AM CST WED MAR 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHERN MO/FAR
   NORTHERN AR

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

   VALID 041240Z - 041745Z

   SUMMARY...MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON
   BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK
   INTO SOUTHERN MO/FAR NORTHERN AR AS COLDER AIR TRANSITIONS
   SOUTHEASTWARD. AT LEAST SOME SLEET/LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE
   EXPECTED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ALONG WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST OK AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO.

   DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA EARLY THIS
   MORNING...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN TANDEM
   WITH A SHARPENING/SOUTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR/SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING REFLECT INCREASINGLY COLDER CLOUD
   TOPS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND
   SOUTHERN/EASTERN OK INTO THE OZARKS.

   THE SURFACE WET-BULB 32F ISOLINE...WHICH LARGELY PARALLELS I-44 FROM
   OK INTO SOUTHERN MO AS OF 12Z/6 AM CST...CONTINUES TO STEADILY
   PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 15-25 MPH. AS THIS TREND
   CONTINUES...PROGRESSIVELY COLDER NEAR-SURFACE AIR WILL LEAD TO A
   TRANSITIONAL COMBINATION OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES BY LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK INTO
   SOUTHERN MO/FAR NORTHERN AR.

   SCATTERED/BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...BUT A COOLING
   ELEVATED WARM LAYER /ROUGHLY 825-700 MB/ SHOULD GENERALLY LEAD TO A
   DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE OF SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SNOW ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND
   SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT
   /12Z/ UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM SPRINGFIELD MO AND NORMAN
   OK...WHERE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WERE
   OBSERVED TO BE AS MUCH AS 1 DEG C COLDER THAN 06Z NAM/RECENT HRRR
   SOUNDINGS /FURTHER SUPPORTIVE OF A TREND TOWARD DOMINANT SLEET AND
   SOME SNOW/.

   ..GUYER.. 03/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...T SA...OUN...
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 07:29:41 AM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image10.gif)
Quote
Wintry weather begins this afternoon in the northwest and north- central areas, while the remainder of Middle Tennessee transitions from a mild rain to a cold rain. A strong cold front will push across the area, with temperatures rapidly falling out the 60s and into the 40s when it passes. During the afternoon, as the colder air moves in, you can expect temperatures to gradually fall through the 30s over about the northwestern half of the Mid-State
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 04, 2015, 07:37:31 AM
Cold air must have slowed down a lot. We're still in the mid-60s in DeSoto County.

Edit to add - looks like the cold front just passed through here with a noticeable turn in wind direction to the WNW. Temp down to 63.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on March 04, 2015, 08:21:04 AM
Chat is down for maintenance. Did it crash? Get your  ::popcorn:: ready it's gonna  ::snowman::!!!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Michael on March 04, 2015, 08:27:30 AM
64 in East TN at 9:25am. I feel like wearing shorts n no shirt! LoL. The breeze feels so warm! Tonight will be a different tune though.

West and Middle TN... Stay safe!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: wfrogge on March 04, 2015, 08:31:45 AM
MCD

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0112.html

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0112.gif)


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0640 AM CST WED MAR 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHERN MO/FAR
   NORTHERN AR

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

   VALID 041240Z - 041745Z

   SUMMARY...MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON
   BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK
   INTO SOUTHERN MO/FAR NORTHERN AR AS COLDER AIR TRANSITIONS
   SOUTHEASTWARD. AT LEAST SOME SLEET/LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE
   EXPECTED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ALONG WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST OK AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO.

   DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA EARLY THIS
   MORNING...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN TANDEM
   WITH A SHARPENING/SOUTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR/SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING REFLECT INCREASINGLY COLDER CLOUD
   TOPS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND
   SOUTHERN/EASTERN OK INTO THE OZARKS.

   THE SURFACE WET-BULB 32F ISOLINE...WHICH LARGELY PARALLELS I-44 FROM
   OK INTO SOUTHERN MO AS OF 12Z/6 AM CST...CONTINUES TO STEADILY
   PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 15-25 MPH. AS THIS TREND
   CONTINUES...PROGRESSIVELY COLDER NEAR-SURFACE AIR WILL LEAD TO A
   TRANSITIONAL COMBINATION OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES BY LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK INTO
   SOUTHERN MO/FAR NORTHERN AR.

   SCATTERED/BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...BUT A COOLING
   ELEVATED WARM LAYER /ROUGHLY 825-700 MB/ SHOULD GENERALLY LEAD TO A
   DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE OF SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SNOW ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND
   SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT
   /12Z/ UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM SPRINGFIELD MO AND NORMAN
   OK...WHERE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WERE
   OBSERVED TO BE AS MUCH AS 1 DEG C COLDER THAN 06Z NAM/RECENT HRRR
   SOUNDINGS /FURTHER SUPPORTIVE OF A TREND TOWARD DOMINANT SLEET AND
   SOME SNOW/.

   ..GUYER.. 03/04/2015
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: wfrogge on March 04, 2015, 08:40:20 AM
Sorry, I looked at the other pages in this thread but must have missed it.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Brian on March 04, 2015, 08:45:20 AM
So mamy time weather seems to come in 7 day patterns - I usually notice this during consecutive rainy weekends, but, this time it is for the third consecutive mid-week winter storm...

Updraft funk gonna give it to ya
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2015, 08:56:16 AM
12z NAM says we implode at H18...

(http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2015030412_F18_36.0000N_86.5000W.png)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Trevor on March 04, 2015, 08:59:20 AM
Got to school at about 7:45 and had to walk back out around 8:10. Noticeable difference in temps.


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Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 09:01:34 AM
Just got back from dropping off my son at MTSU and was looking at all those low, ominous clouds thinking to myself, "WOW, if this was March......."

ahem....carry on.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: WXHD on March 04, 2015, 09:18:46 AM
12z NAM says we implode at H18...

(http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2015030412_F18_36.0000N_86.5000W.png)
  I have never seen a sounding like that. wow.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Vols1 on March 04, 2015, 09:33:42 AM
What does that translate to Eric for us that can't read that lol
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2015, 09:45:09 AM
What does that translate to Eric for us that can't read that lol

It's bad data.  I just thought it funny.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: family04 on March 04, 2015, 09:45:33 AM
Updraft funk gonna give it to ya
[/quote]


Lol! That was great!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2015, 09:47:53 AM

12z NAM says we implode at H18...

(http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2015030412_F18_36.0000N_86.5000W.png)

(http://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/288/648/776.gif)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: RobD on March 04, 2015, 10:30:15 AM
For those of you in the Hillsboro Village area of Nashville, Hillsboro Hardware got 400 bags of rock salt in this am. They were below 200 bags at 9:30. I'd call before you go over.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: WXHD on March 04, 2015, 10:38:55 AM
For those of you in the Hillsboro Village area of Nashville, Hillsboro Hardware got 400 bags of rock salt in this am. They were below 200 bags at 9:30. I'd call before you go over.
  I was in there @815 while they were unloading them. I had no idea they'd go through that many so fast. That's 200 in an hour!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 04, 2015, 11:01:55 AM
Not sure if it's accurate but Jonesboro and Blytheville are both reporting light snow.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 11:09:37 AM
Blowing the roof off of the temperatures here today.   Approaching 70F.  Shorts and t-shirt weather, even with the wind.

Feels like this...

(http://www.bestourism.com/img/items/big/115/Maldives_A-relaxing-get-away_429.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: cgauxknox on March 04, 2015, 11:12:07 AM
Blowing the roof off of the temperatures here today.   Approaching 70F.  Shorts and t-shirt weather, even with the wind.

Feels like this...

(http://www.bestourism.com/img/items/big/115/Maldives_A-relaxing-get-away_429.jpg)

We're enjoying the same down the hill in Knoxville.  The boat listings on Craigslist are terribly tempting right about now but that should change by tomorrow morning  ::cold::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 11:30:39 AM
We're enjoying the same down the hill in Knoxville.  The boat listings on Craigslist are terribly tempting right about now but that should change by tomorrow morning  ::cold::

I'd imagine so.  ;) I'm wondering what is in store for the central valley.  Even MRX seems unsure when the cold air will make it in.  Honestly, I'm hoping for as little freezing rain as possible. 

Will the Plateau delay the arrival of the low-level below freezing temps long enough for the heaviest precipitation to be gone??  It's anybody's guess.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: dave on March 04, 2015, 11:54:53 AM
I might have missed an earlier post but many more counties have been added to the winter storm warning area


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Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 11:55:22 AM
Quote
WSWOHX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1128 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE
...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PLENTY OF
RAIN TO THE MID STATE TODAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
SOUTHWARD...YOU CAN EXPECT THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE REST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND THEN TO A
MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER MOST AREAS BY LATE NIGHT. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE PRECIPITATION
MAY NOT MIX WITH SNOW UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CROSSVILLE TO LAWRENCEBURG WILL PROBABLY SEE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION STAY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT. FOLKS IN THIS AREA...WHERE POTENTIAL IS GREATEST FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO ANY
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REGARDING ICE ACCUMULATION AS UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE.

MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MOST FREEZING RAIN CAUSING ICE
ACCUMULATION AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40...ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER...MAY SEE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.

MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO START DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TODAY...WITH
TRAVEL CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER OTHER AREAS TONIGHT...AS THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION SPREADS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IN
FACT...MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL LIKELY LAST ALL THE WAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO
THE TEENS.]
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2015, 12:01:12 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image_full9.gif)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2015, 12:03:10 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_RYvLZVEAAQS14.jpg:large)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: paderryb on March 04, 2015, 12:39:51 PM
Reported by Memphis news 3
[attachimg=2]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 12:50:05 PM
MRX's morning snowfall graphic for those in Eastern TN.  Meh...

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mrx/graphicast/image_full6.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 01:00:18 PM
High water issues spreading in Kentucky.

Via Twitter:

Paris, KY
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_RiaKyU8AEYWXJ.jpg:large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_RiYrUUoAAR3Tc.jpg:large)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 01:21:35 PM
Wow...we've really busted through the forecast highs today.  It's partly sunny, windy and 75!!  Might get into the upper 70's before all is said and done.  Feels friggin awesome after a month of cold. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: InMemphis on March 04, 2015, 01:22:38 PM
Church is still planned to go on as scheduled tonight. I typically leave for home at around 8. Should I just stay in tonight?
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 01:43:22 PM
MRX update:

Quote
TNZ012>015-035-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-050345-
/O.CON.KMRX.WS.W.0006.150305T0600Z-150305T2100Z/
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
SNEEDVILLE...WARTBURG...JONESVILLE...WISE... NORTON...GATE CITY...
LEBANON...ABINGDON
235 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* EVENT...WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW
  WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION AND 2 TO 4 INCHES
  OF SNOW.

* TIMING...BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
  CONTINUING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS. WHEN
  TRAVELING...SLOW DOWN AND DRIVE WITH CAUTION. GIVE YOURSELF
  EXTRA ROOM BETWEEN YOU AND THE VEHICLE AHEAD OF YOU. THE ICE
  ACCUMULATIONS MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES WITH LOCALIZED
  POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 04, 2015, 01:57:16 PM
Church is still planned to go on as scheduled tonight. I typically leave for home at around 8. Should I just stay in tonight?

The latest short term models show the conversion to frozen precip in Shelby Co between 4 and 6 pm. My guess is by 8, the streets will be getting slick.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 01:59:32 PM
MRX:
Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC AIR WILL TURN RAIN INTO A WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...

.RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
THE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING...PLUNGING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW FREEZING ESPECIALLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW.

TNZ040-041-071>074-085-086-100-101-050345-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0013.150305T0900Z-150305T2100Z/
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-MCMINN-
NORTHWEST MONROE-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...COSBY...MARYVILLE...
CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...ATHENS...M ADISONVILLE...
CLEVELAND...BENTON
235 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM
TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY.

* EVENT...WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW.

* TIMING...BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
  CONTINUING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN
  INCH. SLEET AND SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND/OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  DRIVING
AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
BE PREPARED FOR SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.


Quote
.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0004.150305T0600Z-150305T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0013.150305T0900Z-150305T2100Z/
HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-
NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-MEIGS-
HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...
MOUNTAIN CITY...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...
MORRISTOWN...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...
ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...
DANDRIDGE...DECATUR...CHATTANOOGA
235 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM
TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* EVENT...WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW.

* TIMING...BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
  CONTINUING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH. SLEET
  AND SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 02:00:42 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_RroXiUQAAYz_c.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_RrpzWVEAA3rJZ.jpg)

Within a 20 minute timespan in Palmyra, Indiana just NW of Louisville
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 04, 2015, 02:05:06 PM
Jonesboro and Dyersburg should be turning over in the next 30 minutes if they haven't already.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Zackman_06 on March 04, 2015, 02:09:46 PM
Nws in Huntsville has issued a winter storm warning for its area mainly for freezing rain and sleet
Quote
000
WWUS44 KHUN 041812
WSWHUN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1212 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.RAIN WILL BE ONGOING BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FIRST CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION
SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATING ON GROUND
AND ROAD SURFACES OVER THE AREA AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A HALF
AN INCH.

ALZ001>007-016-TNZ076-096-097-051100-
/O.UPG.KHUN.WS.A.0004.150305T0900Z-150305T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.W.0004.150305T0900Z-150305T2100Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE ...DECATUR...
CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHES TER
1212 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
  FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THURSDAY
  MORNING AND THEN TO SLEET DURING THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
  TENNESSEE VALLEY...INCLUDING LAUDERDALE... COLBERT...
  FRANKLIN...LAWRENCE... LIMESTONE...MADISON...MORGAN...AND CULLMAN
  COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND LINCOLN...MOORE...AND FRANKLIN
  COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO THREE
  TENTHS OF AN INCH AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A HALF AN INCH
  AREA LIKELY.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
  ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE DUE TO THE
  ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS AND BRIDGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE...SLEET...AND
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

ALZ008>010-051100-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.W.0004.150305T0900Z-150305T2100Z/
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE
1212 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
  FREEZING RAIN BY 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN TO SLEET DURING
  THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...INCLUDING
  MARSHALL...JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO THREE
  TENTHS OF AN INCH AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A HALF AN INCH
  ARE LIKELY.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
  ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE DUE TO THE
  ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS AND BRIDGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE...SLEET...AND
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

TT
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2015, 02:09:54 PM
Jonesboro and Dyersburg should be turning over in the next 30 minutes if they haven't already.
JBR just switched to PL.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Susan on March 04, 2015, 02:12:50 PM
JBR just switched to PL.

Clay, how does this match with what was forecasted? time wise
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Zackman_06 on March 04, 2015, 02:15:13 PM
Shouldn't be long in Clarksville 35 and heavy rain atm
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 02:18:03 PM
Quote
WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR ARKANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
200 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

ARZ001-003-010-029-042100-
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FAYETTEVILLE   SNOW      25  23  92 N14G21    30.12S VSB 1/2 WCI  13
FORT SMITH     LGT RAIN  35  31  85 N16       30.09R WCI  25
HARRISON       HVY SNOW  24  23  96 N8        30.14R VSB 1/4 WCI  15
BENTONVILLE    CLOUDY    25  18  74 NE18G28   30.17R WCI  11
ROGERS         LGT SNOW  22  19  89 N16       30.16S FOG     WCI   8
SILOAM SPGS    CLOUDY    25  16  68 NE18G25   30.17S WCI  11
HIGHFILL       LGT SNOW  24  20  84 N20G26    30.15S FOG     WCI  10
SPRINGDALE     LGT SNOW  25  21  86 NE12G23   30.15R VSB 1   WCI  14
$$

ARZ004-005-016-042100-
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BATESVILLE     CLOUDY    34  30  86 NW8G20    30.10R WCI  27
FLIPPIN        CLOUDY    27  19  74 CALM      30.16R
MTN HOME       SNOW      23  22  96 N8G20     30.15R VSB 1/4 WCI  14
$$

ARZ040-041-042100-
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
MENA           CLOUDY    41  39  93 N6        29.99R
MOUNT IDA      RAIN      41  39  93 VRB3      29.94F FOG
$$

ARZ009-017-025-026-028-042100-
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CORNING        MOCLDY    28  25  86 N22G35    30.11F WCI  15
JONESBORO      MIX PCPN  32  30  92 N18G26    30.08R FOG     WCI  20
NEWPORT        LGT RAIN  34  31  89 N26       30.09R WCI  21
WALNUT RIDGE   CLOUDY    30  25  80 N21       30.13R WCI  17
BLYTHEVILLE    MIX PCPN  31  28  89 N36G43    30.05S WCI  15
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 02:21:59 PM
https://4warnweather.wordpress.com/2015/03/04/update-march-4-5-winter-storm/

More from PH!!!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: NashRugger on March 04, 2015, 02:38:55 PM
Just a tidbit folks, you don't have to post the ENTIRE warning or advisory language, just the most pertinent info will suffice.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 04, 2015, 02:45:43 PM
I would expect Shelby County to start switching over in the next hour. The northern suburb surface temps are down to 33-35 range.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Storm Central on March 04, 2015, 02:55:44 PM
Quote
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E TN AND
PORTIONS OF SW VA AN SW NC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE
TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND
ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION
LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER
SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS
TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS
LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E
AREAS. WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY.

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2015, 03:00:21 PM
New timing graphic from OHX:

(https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/q84/p180x540/11014703_802407343168885_6847514587446612002_n.jpg?oh=32dfd35f8297b778adf1b30025d3fdd7&oe=558327E6&__gda__=1435877616_7a617bd7c4d36271d5dbdcd71d4cad75)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 04, 2015, 03:02:16 PM
West Memphis has changed over.

Hearing some reports of sleet mixing in with rain in western DeSoto Co.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 03:27:55 PM
MRX graphic for East Tennessee:

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mrx/graphicast/image_full2.jpg)
I noticed they put a WWA is NOT a downgrade.  I was always under the impression as far as amounts and impacts, it was a downgrade from a Winter Storm Warning.

On a different note, I got home from work and opened the windows.  It's 73F for the time being.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2015, 03:28:46 PM
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TIMING OF THE ONSET FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN DIFFICULT FOR THIS FORECAST. KEPT THE FORECAST
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH SOME TWEAKS TO BE DISCUSSED BELOW. STILL
LOOKING FOR AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY SOUTH OF I40. ADDED A BIT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION TO AREAS CLOSE TO THE AL BORDER AT AROUND 2 TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR SO. UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AS
WELL TO REFLECT IMPACTS OF THE ADDITIONAL ICE COMBINED WITH SLEET
AND SNOW INTO THURSDAY.

12Z MODELS ARE TRYING TO LINE UP A BIT BETTER...WITH THE GFS
SLOWLY CATCHING UP WITH THE NAM IN TERMS OF SURFACE TEMP TIMING
AND WARM NOSE DEPTH. NAM REMAINS THE WARMEST MODEL IN TERMS OF
SURFACE TEMPS HANGING ON ABOVE FREEZING A BIT LONGER AS WELL AS
HAVING THE STRONGEST WARM NOSE ALOFT...WITH THE SREF NOT TOO FAR
BEHIND. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW LONG FZRA WILL HANG AROUND
NORTHERN AREAS AS THIS WILL CUT INTO THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ADD A
BIT TO THE TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF ICE IN THE FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...REPORTS SHOW THE FZRA BAND TO BE A BIT THIN...BUT MAY
GROW AS THE COLD AIR RUNS SOUTHEASTWARD FASTER THIS EVENING AND
WARM AIR ALOFT HANGS AROUND. ALSO...THE ONSET OF SLEET FOLLOWING
FZRA MAY ALSO CUT INTO SNOW AMOUNTS IF THE WARM AIR ALOFT HANGS
OUT A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING AS WELL AS
LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

PRECIP TYPE SUMMARY FOR THE EVENT...THE NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS TO
GET THE MOST SNOW AS THEY WILL HAVE THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HAVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IN THE NW NORTH OF I40 AND WEST OF I65 WITH CLOSE TO
7 IN THE FAR NW TIP OF THE CWA WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE
NEIGHBORS AND IS JUST SHORT OF WPC THINKING. THE BULK OF THE CWA
LOOKS TO HAVE MAINLY SLEET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT
SURROUNDED BY FZRA AND A MIX IN THE BEGINNING OF THE FROZEN
TRANSITION IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE. MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER END BEING
CLOSER TO THE KY BORDER AND I65. NEAR THE AL BORDER AND AROUND
CROSSVILLE SHOULD SEE MAINLY FZRA AND SLEET WHEN THE FROZEN PRECIP
ARRIVES...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
IN DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN
AREAS. BROUGHT SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN JUST A BIT BUT ALSO INCREASED ICE
ACCUM TO A RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER FOR THIS AREA. 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA AS
WELL. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD AIR MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WARM AIR LINGERING ALOFT...PRECIP TYPES MAY VARY AND
MODIFY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED...STILL LOOKS COLD FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD AFTER THE EVENT AS COLD AIR STICKS AROUND. DOESNT LOOK AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER SNOW/SLEET/ICE AT THE SURFACE
WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA. FORTUNATELY BELOW ZERO 850 MB TEMPS DONT STICK
AROUND LONG...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MELT A LOT OF THE FROZEN PRECIP AND
IMPROVE TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MIDDLE TN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 03:38:58 PM
MRX AFD:
Quote
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT.  FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND
ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION
LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT
. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER
SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS
TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS
LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E
AREAS.
WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY.

Snow may be underdone for central valley?  Hmm, interesting.

Hard to believe by morning I'll be dealing with 30's when I'm basking in 70's right now.  What a PLUNGE. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2015, 04:00:27 PM
WPC crayon map...

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 04:17:06 PM
Our yard....
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/v/t1.0-9/11041733_10202368855300969_3540992726787869999_n.jpg?oh=77abb2d7bbeaceacda741831f10b2024&oe=557C38E5&__gda__=1435588784_fcb63b44786f1b729f8641834a055d5b)

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 04, 2015, 04:19:16 PM
State line and Goodman Rd corridors have gone over to sleet. Very fast transition - maybe 10 minutes of ZR.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 04:20:02 PM
WPC crayon map...

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif)

That appears to have expanded quite a bit.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: StormNine on March 04, 2015, 04:36:17 PM
Freezing rain in Oak Grove,KY according to traffic cameras. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2015, 04:53:28 PM
Not to be overlooked with this system... flooding:

Quote
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
416 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TNC021-027-037-043-087-111-149-159-165-169-187-189-050415-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FA.W.0001.150304T2216Z-150305T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RUTHERFORD TN-SMITH TN-SUMNER TN-TROUSDALE TN-WILLIAMSON TN-WILSON TN-
DICKSON TN-CHEATHAM TN-CLAY TN-DAVIDSON TN-JACKSON TN-MACON TN-
416 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY...
  SMITH COUNTY...
  SOUTHERN SUMNER COUNTY...
  TROUSDALE COUNTY...
  WILLIAMSON COUNTY...
  WILSON COUNTY...
  SOUTHERN DICKSON COUNTY...
  SOUTHERN CHEATHAM COUNTY...
  CLAY COUNTY...
  DAVIDSON COUNTY...
  JACKSON COUNTY...
  MACON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CST...

* AT 411 PM CST...FLOODING WAS REPORTED FROM WILSON CREEK IN THE
TOWN OF ARRINGTON IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM
AROUND I-40 NORTHWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA AND COULD LEAD TO FURTHER ROADS
BECOME FLOODED...ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND RIVERS BEFORE RAIN
CHANGES TO A WINTRY MIX.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...METRO
NASHVILLE...FRANKLIN...DICKSON...GALLATIN... LAFAYETTE AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN!

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 04:56:18 PM
I guess I'll have to close the windows soon.  Cold air sliding down the valley from the north.  I'm at 71, while areas to my northeast (Morristown) are now in the 50's.  Very interesting to watch the cold air progress in this way.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ (http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/)
Title: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: tncolts on March 04, 2015, 04:56:28 PM
Paul, from WSMV in Nashville from which a link to his video was posted earlier (thanks ServoCrow), is Nashville's new Bill Hall. I think someone made this reference last week or so. It isn't because he's right more than everybody else, at least for me anyway; it's because he tells you this is what the computers say, this is what I think, these are the other scenarios that could happen.

Bill always did that, plus the guy takes the time to do an extensive video of the whole process. I just really respect him for taking that approach.

Anyway.....back to the weather.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: tnwxdot on March 04, 2015, 05:19:03 PM
32* and sleet, the changeover has begun in Waverly
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 05:42:55 PM
Quote
NewsChannel 5 ‏@NC5  1m1 minute ago
#Storm5Alert: Winter weather in Clarksville has resulted in 8 traffic crashes & numerous reports of stuck vehicles in the last hour.

via Twitter
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JHart on March 04, 2015, 05:58:45 PM
Water has overtopped the road out here.  That's common in heavy rains, but I can only imagine what situations like that will be  for driving tomorrow morning.  ::drowning:: ::cold::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: StormNine on March 04, 2015, 06:26:49 PM
Moderate to heavy sleet in BG and 1.5 inches of sleet reported in Oak Grove, KY which is just across the state line from Clarksville. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 06:31:53 PM
Quote
WKRN ‏@WKRN  31s31 seconds ago
WILSON COUNTY EMA: "Many areas impassable w/water over road, esp. Watertown. Please DO NOT attempt to cross flood water!"
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2015, 06:43:47 PM
Mill Creek is running high in southeast Davidson County.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 07:05:14 PM
"Well that was a bit of a thing."

Alfred Hitchcock

 ::coffee::

#forumspaz
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 04, 2015, 07:07:22 PM
No precipitation here yet, but temps just dropped from 72 to 57 in a matter of an hour or so.  Cooler air definitely making it's presence felt now. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 07:15:51 PM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...

...VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS...

MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS OLD
MEXICO INTO THE OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LEADING EDGE OF
WINTER WEATHER NOW IN NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WILL CRAWL
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT CLARKSVILLE WITH RAIN AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE.

EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT CLARKSIVLLE
BY 02Z AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SIGINIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT
OUTLAW FIELD. SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL END AROUND 15Z THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES. LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT NASHVILLE LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET BETWEEN
01Z-02Z BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SLEET AROUND 02Z...THEN MIX WITH
SNOW BETWEEN 04Z-08Z...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AFTER 08Z WITH SNOW
CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
AT NASHVILLE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ABOUT AN HOUR.

THERES A DEEP WARM LAYER AT CROSSVILLE ON THE ORDER OF 8K WITH A
+8 CELSIUS TEMPS ON THE WARM NOSE AT 03Z. BY 06Z WARM LAYER IS
STILL DEEP WITH +8 ON THE NOSE WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 32 DEGREES
AND GETTING COLDER WITH A MINIMUM COLD LAYER AT -4 CELSIUS SO
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM 03Z TO 09Z THEN A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW 09Z-12Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING RAIN DURATION AT ANY OF THE FORECAST
LOCATIONS.


Good news.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 07:25:41 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_S9G6RUQAAlXBX.jpg)
Quote
Davis Nolan retweeted
 Sam Shamburger ‏@samshamNWS  8m8 minutes ago Nashville, TN
Fort Campbell KY radar CC shows sleet to snow transition very well, entering Stewart County #tnwx
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 07:35:53 PM
Quote
Davis Nolan ‏@DavisNolan  8m8 minutes ago
From National Weather Service spotter in Dickson County Charlotte starting to snow mixed precept temp 31°f
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 07:47:14 PM
Quote
Davis Nolan ‏@DavisNolan  43s44 seconds ago
From NWS spotter relayer NA4C: Houston County roads icy and dangerous Sheriffs dept working a lot of wrecks.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on March 04, 2015, 07:52:19 PM
Sevenmile Creek is real high, muddy and rising

Really loud too
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 07:56:51 PM
Understanding how HUGE this storm is....
Quote
Jeremy Kappell WDRB
Page Liked · 22 mins
WOW! So just how big is this storm? To give you an idea, a Winter Storm Warning is currently in effect from the Mexican Border all the way through Long Island, NY, or approximately 1,700 miles as the crow flies!!!]
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/11048280_864733076903376_5814091283890688255_n.png?oh=1fcc7524d30491dc92f19f68f3841080&oe=55941A65&__gda__=1435353821_5e340998d1d1db61859f1b71b080b8fb)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 08:01:28 PM
Quote
Davis Nolan ‏@DavisNolan  2m2 minutes ago
Report relayed via NWS ham radio from spotter: Bluebird Rd near the 2800 block in Wilson County is impassable due to flooding.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 08:38:25 PM
 
Quote
WKRN retweeted
 Wilson County EMA ‏@wilsonema  6m6 minutes ago
FLOODING IS OCCURRING! Rescue crews are currently rescuing a driver in flooded roadway! DO NOT drive in flood water! http://nixle.us/8LXGB

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 08:59:08 PM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
840 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR CLARKSVILLE AND CROSSVILLE WINTER PRECIP

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE UPDATED CLARKSVILLE`S FORECAST TO KEEP A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
UNTIL 04Z THEN ALL SNOW THROUGH 15Z THEN TAPERING TO FLURRIES. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

NOW...HERE`S A CHANGE THAT IS OF CONCERN. HAVE LIQUID RAIN AT
CROSSVILLE THROUGH 08Z THEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET UNTIL 14Z.
THAT IS 6 HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN (GLAZE ON SURFACES). ALL SNOW
AFTER 14Z AT CROSSVILLE. MODELS ARE MORE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN SCNARIO AT CROSSVILLE SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS INDICATED.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 04, 2015, 09:09:14 PM
FOX13 has a reporter at 385 and 240 where the precip has changed over to snow. Anyone else seeing that around the city.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Stevo on March 04, 2015, 09:21:11 PM
I know this has been asked in the past.  Can someone post the link for mobile chat?
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: StormNine on March 04, 2015, 09:31:16 PM
6 inches of snow in Morgantown.  Still about 1/8th of an inch of sleet here(little more on grassy areas) in Bowling Green.  Shows how thin the lines can be at times. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Drmaynard on March 04, 2015, 09:38:35 PM
Six hours of freezing rain for Crossville. Just what they were hoping for.

On the bright side, only 130 people in Cumberland County still have no power from the Feb 21 ice storm. Just in time!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 04, 2015, 09:45:42 PM
Just walked outside and we have a dusting of snow in Olive Branch.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: WXHD on March 04, 2015, 09:47:18 PM
I know this has been asked in the past.  Can someone post the link for mobile chat?
. I'm mobile and have no way of doing so. It has been asked and answered many times. I'll post in chat and see if someone can help.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: WXHD on March 04, 2015, 09:49:53 PM

Trevor
tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/mobile

Hope it works.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on March 04, 2015, 09:58:44 PM
Six hours of freezing rain for Crossville. Just what they were hoping for.

On the bright side, only 130 people in Cumberland County still have no power from the Feb 21 ice storm. Just in time!

That would be another disaster. I understand that many trees are just hanging on........
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 10:02:45 PM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
925 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN WORKING ACROSS THE MID-STATE...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NASHVILLE CURRENTLY IN
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REGIME...WITH SNOW NOT FAR BEHIND.

SHALLOW COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTHEAST BEHIND FRONT BUT
NEWEST NAM/RUC DATA SHOWING DEEP WARM NOSE STARTING JUST ABOVE
3KFT HANGING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE PLATEAU...AND
CHANGE OVER THERE EXPECTED MIDNIGHT TO 3AM. THIS SCENARIO MAY
TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY MORE ICING THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...
POSSIBLY AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR HIGHER THROUGH 8 OR 9AM
THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN END.

LOCALS INCLUDING AND WEST/SOUTH OF NASHVILLE EXPECTED TRANSITION
TO SLEET/SNOW LARGELY BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
LATER NEAR TO AL BORDER. WHILE ICE AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER THAN
1/4 INCH ON THE PLATEAU...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT EXPECTED
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE STILL VERY MUCH IN THE BALLPARK. THE
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHLAND RIM STILL LOOKING FOR 3-6 INCHES
SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
COULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW 6+ VERY EASILY.

CURRENT FORECAST ONLY NEEDS MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PLAN TO
RAISE ICE ACCUM PLATEAU. TEMPS RUNNING LITTLE COOLER...AND WITH
EXPECTED PCPN OVERNIGHT...WILL LOWER A BIT. WINTER STORM WARNING
CONTINUES.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on March 04, 2015, 10:18:29 PM
PLAN TO
RAISE ICE ACCUM PLATEAU.

That is just ugly!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 04, 2015, 10:46:51 PM
Meanwhile, in Kentucky....
(https://scontent-atl.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/11057244_822255984535295_4165398810416944681_n.jpg?oh=1797af68d176c4f8ef017b9706d7e3f8&oe=558C6AE8)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 04, 2015, 11:59:32 PM
Eastward progression has been incredibly slow. Won't be surprised to see some totals nearing 1 foot over NE Arkansas.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: StormNine on March 05, 2015, 12:05:08 AM
I-24 in Lyon/Trigg/Caldwell is shut down as well and many motorists are stranded.  Parts of Muhlenberg, Hopkins, and Ohio counties have at or close to 1 foot of snow.  One photograph showed 15 inches of snow in Hartford, KY
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2015, 12:49:37 AM
Radar returns really picking up upstream from BNA. It is about to be our turn. Snow sleet line is likely working its way down through Northern Davidson Co.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: draelius on March 05, 2015, 01:22:55 AM
MEG is upping accumulation totals for their CWA. 12"+ for Jonesboro to Dyersburg and points north. Up to 9" along the I40 corridor. Citing radar trends still showing precip all the way back into NE Texas.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: SuperCell on March 05, 2015, 02:31:00 AM
Sleet accumulating on grassy areas and elevated surfaces. Glaze of ice on all elevated surfaces also. Driveway still wet - for now...4 miles SE of Woodbury, TN.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: SuperCell on March 05, 2015, 03:15:22 AM
All heavy sleet now driveway is now covered.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 05, 2015, 03:18:00 AM
Light to moderate sleet falling here. It is accumulating very rapidly thanks to temps in the low 20's.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: WH Jason on March 05, 2015, 03:51:19 AM
Just started snowing here in White House within the last 30 minutes and it's coming down with a PURPOSE.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JTM1988 on March 05, 2015, 03:56:25 AM
The last gasp of air for the snow dome(http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/03/05/aff3f3a23df1f82f3711c160d77ec1e8.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2015, 04:55:45 AM
Been dumping snow for the last 30 mins, probably .75" already in Oak Hill. 21F
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 05:01:52 AM
The last gasp of air for the snow dome(http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/03/05/aff3f3a23df1f82f3711c160d77ec1e8.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Congratulations!  This really is an historic storm!  ::flag:: ::guitar::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2015, 05:21:05 AM
Snowfall still extends back towards Little Rock!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2015, 05:58:50 AM
snowing hard in north Jackson again ... 7 inches I just measured ::snowman::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ryandourius on March 05, 2015, 06:05:10 AM
snowing hard in north Jackson again ... 7 inches I just measured ::snowman::
5 miles North of Parsons, TN was able to measure 6 inches even at 4:30 AM
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: SKEW-TIM on March 05, 2015, 06:30:48 AM
pretty good snow in Bellevue

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 05, 2015, 07:13:00 AM
Snowing beautifully here; looks like some ice accretion, and sleet accumulation out there too.  I'll try and get out to measure in a bit.  I have to have coffee INput.

 ::coffee::

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JHart on March 05, 2015, 07:22:08 AM
We have picked up about 1.5 inches out here so far with a bit of drifting... and we may eke out a bit more.  Still not enough to cover the grass (that hasn't happened since 2003), but wow what a blessing to have the most intense snow come just after dawn.  I'm content.  :)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 05, 2015, 07:26:33 AM
4" up here on the Rim! Very nice event!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: cgauxknox on March 05, 2015, 07:49:09 AM
We are just barely above freezing with a steady rain in Knoxville; I suspect the changeover is coming soon.  I'm working from home but my wife, who is in healthcare, had to go in.  Our thought is that she'll be better off working through the day so that the rain can stop and TDOT will have a chance to treat the roads.  Of course this is the valley so we have a solid chance of 32.1 degrees and rain for the duration.  For once I'm actually hoping that's what happens.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 05, 2015, 07:51:05 AM
Sleeting again here... 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 05, 2015, 07:59:58 AM
Well...if I can't get a couple of inches of snow, then I will live vicariously through family members in Kentucky who keep whining and moaning.  Here is a photo at the home of one of my sibling's in Hardin County, Kentucky.  They have had three separate events of 6" or greater since January:
(https://scontent-atl.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/10471182_10154097674892524_9146893804061780599_n.jpg?oh=c1103704856a0c9c53788e26c01401d2&oe=5580A3E6)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: bbill on March 05, 2015, 08:08:50 AM
0.1 inch of sleet/freezing rain topped with 2.1" of Colorado-worthy powder.  Break out the skis!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 08:34:17 AM
Well...if I can't get a couple of inches of snow, then I will live vicariously through family members in Kentucky who keep whining and moaning.  Here is a photo at the home of one of my sibling's in Hardin County, Kentucky.  They have had three separate events of 6" or greater since January:
(https://scontent-atl.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/10471182_10154097674892524_9146893804061780599_n.jpg?oh=c1103704856a0c9c53788e26c01401d2&oe=5580A3E6)

Wow...that's an epic snow.  KY has had a very memorable winter this year.  2014-15 will be one of those you compare future winters to.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 08:36:31 AM
Sitting at 36 with heavy rain here.  More worried about flooding with this event, considering the fire hose of moisture still pointed toward East Tennessee. Creeks are already well out of their banks.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Drmaynard on March 05, 2015, 08:40:58 AM
As far as I can tell, we never changed over from sleet in Cookeville.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Uncle Nasty on March 05, 2015, 08:47:24 AM
So how much did/does Nashvile have? I have heard a dusting up to 9". That's a huge spread if verified!

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 08:50:52 AM
So how much did/does Nashvile have? I have heard a dusting up to 9". That's a huge spread if verified!

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

I've heard from about 1.5-3 inches or a little more in the chat room. 

Kentucky hit the snow jack-pot.  18-23 inches in parts of west-central Kentucky just southwest of Louisville.  Southeast KY looks to have about 3-5 inches.  My folks there said it didn't switch over to snow until around 4 a.m.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: cgauxknox on March 05, 2015, 08:56:58 AM
We transitioned to sleet a few minutes ago; happy to see that rather than ZR.  ::cold::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 09:00:41 AM
Thanks for the report.  Good to hear.  I think the cold in the upper levels is catching up with the cold air in the valley--since its moving slowly over the Plateau.  Hopefully, we'll go straight to sleet here too.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Sandra on March 05, 2015, 09:07:28 AM
Just got in from measuring.... Millington got a solid 4" on top of ice and sleet.  Not epic like KY, but great for us!
Lot of drifts that are higher around house and trees.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 05, 2015, 09:08:18 AM
The blowing snow is hard to measure. I come up with 1 inch of sleet and 9  inches of snow. Now time to catch Crappie.  ::flag::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on March 05, 2015, 09:20:33 AM
So how much did/does Nashvile have? I have heard a dusting up to 9". That's a huge spread if verified!

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk
More than dustings, the snow dome is history!! ::snowman::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2015, 09:21:13 AM
So how much did/does Nashvile have? I have heard a dusting up to 9". That's a huge spread if verified!

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

I'm pretty sure there's nothing even close to 9" in the immediate Nashville area... maybe 4" at most on the north side.  The far northwest parts of OHX's area saw higher amounts.  Generally 2-4" for the city.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Coach B on March 05, 2015, 09:24:09 AM
Got 1.1" total, with .1" or so of freezing rain and 1" of solid sleet. No snow. :(

I shouldn't complain since I did very well in 2009-2011 with big snows each year while Nashville struggled. Seems like maybe the Pulaski-Lewisburg-Murfreesboro area is going to be the screw zone for this year with big snows to our se last week and now this to our northwest. I know the Nashville folks feel much better with todays snow, but in my opinion a three inch snow does nothing more than put a small dent in the long term snow drought. Especially considering the potential of the last three weeks. I'll put together a winter grade sometime next week when we have a little better perspective.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Chipper31 on March 05, 2015, 09:31:00 AM
Nashville officially picked up 2.8" at BNA.  NWS measured exactly 2" at their office, as did I here in West Nashville.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 05, 2015, 09:38:00 AM
My stepbrother's stepdaughter is one of the stranded motorists on I-65 in Hardin County (Elizabethtown) KY.  The National Guard has been activated to help rescue people off of there.  My stepbrother has a very serious heart condition and has no business going on a rescue himself, but he is....(don't get me started on that subject).  I would appreciate any prayers for safety, not only for them, but for all those motorists and rescue personnel. 

If you are not familiar with that stretch of I-65SB as it approaches Elizabethtown, there is a steep grade descending into the area.  It is awful.

Quote
Elizabethtown Police Department
PHONE NUMBER FOR NATIONAL GUARD. IF YOU ARE STUCK ON I-65 OR KNOW SOMEONE WHO IS PLEASE CALL
270-765-5978.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 09:40:20 AM
Got 1.1" total, with .1" or so of freezing rain and 1" of solid sleet. No snow. :(

I shouldn't complain since I did very well in 2009-2011 with big snows each year while Nashville struggled. Seems like maybe the Pulaski-Lewisburg-Murfreesboro area is going to be the screw zone for this year with big snows to our se last week and now this to our northwest. I know the Nashville folks feel much better with todays snow, but in my opinion a three inch snow does nothing more than put a small dent in the long term snow drought. Especially considering the potential of the last three weeks. I'll put together a winter grade sometime next week when we have a little better perspective.

A little snow is better appreciated when knowledge of Kentucky's snow bonanza is ignored.  ;)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: egotalon on March 05, 2015, 09:45:41 AM
C'mon you lucky snow recipients.  Post some pics already, don't be so stingy with your snow.

All I got was about a 1/2 in of sleet.

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 09:46:49 AM
My stepbrother's stepdaughter is one of the stranded motorists on I-65 in Hardin County (Elizabethtown) KY.  The National Guard has been activated to help rescue people off of there.  My stepbrother has a very serious heart condition and has no business going on a rescue himself, but he is....(don't get me started on that subject).  I would appreciate any prayers for safety, not only for them, but for all those motorists and rescue personnel. 

If you are not familiar with that stretch of I-65SB as it approaches Elizabethtown, there is a steep grade descending into the area.  It is awful.


Wow, sorry to hear that.  Sure hope everything works out ok.  Keep us updated when you get news... :-\
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 05, 2015, 09:57:09 AM

Wow, sorry to hear that.  Sure hope everything works out ok.  Keep us updated when you get news... :-\

I also found out I have a second cousin and her family stranded further down the interstate near Bonnieville, another bad place, but it is less populated. 

Quote
SevereStudios ‏@severestudios  27m27 minutes ago
John Humphress is streaming live (when data is available) I-65, Elizabethtown, KY - Vehicles stuck after 21" of snow
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Charles L. on March 05, 2015, 10:27:47 AM
Fitting end to the winter season for the snowdome to be busted. Finally, now maybe we can stop hearing about it. Lol

For the year I have seen over 14" of snow. That is amazing!

I can now say I am ready for spring and on to tracking some storms.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Jason M on March 05, 2015, 10:33:02 AM
West TN easily verified on the forecast totals especially here in Gibson county...between 6 and 8 inches in the yard in most spots and a couple spots where there were 2 foot high drifts. I can't remember an actual snow here like this since I was a kid. I'll have some pics on once I figure out how to upload them from my phone  :P
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 10:34:01 AM
Quote
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. MODEST QPF EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANDED FLOOD AREAS AND
LANDSLIDE POTENTIAL.

SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS HAS SLIDE OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE
E TN VALLEY. WARNING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE ALONG PLATEAU WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REMAIN IN FLUX ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF FREEZING LINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.



I'm thinking not much gonna happen over here but some occasional sleet pellets.  The Valley never does well in slow creeping cold air masses.  Oozes in too slowly, like molasses. 

We did get a very beneficial late winter soaking rain (approaching 1.5 inches).  Good to see these now, in case we dry out later, as we sometimes do.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 10:38:09 AM
I also found out I have a second cousin and her family stranded further down the interstate near Bonnieville, another bad place, but it is less populated.

For Kentucky, this snow (and the winter for that matter) rivals any of the memorable ones I lived through up there.  1993-94 and 1995-96 were both epic seasons with events like this.  In January 94, I think every interstate was shut down at some point. 

I'm sorry to hear you have family stuck out in this.  Sure hope they get home safe and sound.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 05, 2015, 10:46:57 AM
For Kentucky, this snow (and the winter for that matter) rivals any of the memorable ones I lived through up there.  1993-94 and 1995-96 were both epic seasons with events like this.  In January 94, I think every interstate was shut down at some point. 

I'm sorry to hear you have family stuck out in this.  Sure hope they get home safe and sound.

Thanks.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on March 05, 2015, 11:05:48 AM
2.2" at my place...

Servo I hope your family is alright
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2015, 11:13:59 AM
I lift prayers for the safety of your family, Servo.  You - and them - will be in my thoughts today. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2015, 11:14:36 AM
Somebody sent me this across the TwitterWebs today...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_VsKamUIAAnjc5.jpg)

Fitting.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2015, 11:22:04 AM
(http://i57.tinypic.com/wlceh.jpg)

Good morning from Arlington!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: harlequin on March 05, 2015, 11:26:27 AM
A few shots from 740 this morning from my building in Midtown. Sorry, I'm too lazy to venture further out.

(http://cl.ly/image/0K1c1h2j1s0F/image2.JPG)
(http://cl.ly/image/3t2i3d0p1v3V/image3.JPG)
(http://cl.ly/image/3l2X1v3R250U/image4.JPG)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 05, 2015, 11:31:54 AM
Just got word that my Stepbrother's stedaughter is on her way home (THANK YOU JESUS). She was rescued by someone (not sure of all the details yet)...

My second cousin's family was supplied food and water by some locals and have gas and blankets so we are just awaiting word from them too.  At least they are maintaining communication still and that is also good.  Thanks for your prayers.

They work...I believe it.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 05, 2015, 11:46:25 AM
Radcliff, KY which is the city between E-town and Ft. Knox on 31W had a whopping 23.2" recorded for JUST yesterday...Incredible.

Quote
WAVE 3 Weather
3 mins ·
HIGHEST REPORTED SNOW TOTAL: 25.0" in Radcliff, KY. Measured carefully by co-op observer many times to be certain
.
Brian Goode WAVE TV

(https://scontent-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/10426228_865305000179517_968316542957364302_n.png?oh=2f7bdaf98273b65df3e0bd7078064cbf&oe=557B8FF6)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2015, 11:56:42 AM
My stepbrother's stepdaughter is one of the stranded motorists on I-65 in Hardin County (Elizabethtown) KY.  The National Guard has been activated to help rescue people off of there.  My stepbrother has a very serious heart condition and has no business going on a rescue himself, but he is....(don't get me started on that subject).  I would appreciate any prayers for safety, not only for them, but for all those motorists and rescue personnel. 

If you are not familiar with that stretch of I-65SB as it approaches Elizabethtown, there is a steep grade descending into the area.  It is awful.
Wow! Just getting on to hear your news! You know your family will be in my prayers! Asking God to cradle them in his hands and deliver them to safety. Hang in there and keep us updated! :(
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 05, 2015, 12:57:47 PM
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/11026059_788658574552748_354047092351105006_n.png?oh=d0b5a78850b15fe7e852086c1da7d7b2&oe=55864C12&__gda__=1435618259_054e9d6b9454c2472f2df1e8fc3360d1)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dave R on March 05, 2015, 01:37:13 PM
(http://i57.tinypic.com/dbmfpw.gif)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 03:03:40 PM
Just got word that my Stepbrother's stedaughter is on her way home (THANK YOU JESUS). She was rescued by someone (not sure of all the details yet)...

My second cousin's family was supplied food and water by some locals and have gas and blankets so we are just awaiting word from them too.  At least they are maintaining communication still and that is also good.  Thanks for your prayers.

They work...I believe it.

Yes.  They do.   :)

Glad you got some good news! 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 04:01:54 PM
Just curious...for those who already assigned grades for the winter...does Thor take it up another letter grade? Or does the fact we were ANOTHER 50-75 miles way from another HUGE storm cancel that out?

That's probably up to everyone's personal preference I would imagine.  Glass half empty, half full sort of thing.  ;)

Then again, it WAS over 20 inches in some places. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 05, 2015, 04:12:01 PM
So I guess I will be starting every winter weather thread from now on...won't I?
Title: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2015, 04:16:50 PM
Probably one of the first excellent radiational cooling nights I've seen in quite some time with a deep snowpack in Memphis metro . Winds should go light here after dark. KMEM set it's all time record low for March tonight
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2015, 04:17:24 PM
So I guess I will be starting every winter weather thread from now on...won't I?
Please do... :D
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2015, 04:17:29 PM
Ended up with just under 2.5" in my neighborhood, no complaints here!

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2015, 04:41:58 PM
Only about 1.5" here after some freezing rain this morning...which is fine. Too much snow makes traveling on foot difficult. Just enough snow creates the perfect time to get out and see scenes like this.

(http://www.bengarrett.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/3.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 05, 2015, 04:47:59 PM
Only about 1.5" here after some freezing rain this morning...which is fine. Too much snow makes traveling on foot difficult. Just enough snow creates the perfect time to get out and see scenes like this.

(http://www.bengarrett.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/3.jpg)

BEAUTIFUL!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 05, 2015, 04:50:43 PM
UPDATE!!!!

The National Guard just rescued my 2nd cousin's family after being on I-65 for 20+ hours.  One of them is staying with the vehicle, so the Guard can get gas to them and get the vehicle back to their home. The interstate is back open, although travel is (understandably) moving quite slowly.

Thanks for your thoughts and prayers, they sure help!! #2GTG !!!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2015, 05:03:17 PM
UPDATE!!!!

The National Guard just rescued my 2nd cousin's family after being on I-65 for 20+ hours.  One of them is staying with the vehicle, so the Guard can get gas to them and get the vehicle back to their home. The interstate is back open, although travel is (understandably) moving quite slowly.

Thanks for your thoughts and prayers, they sure help!! #2GTG !!!
that's great news... prayers answered.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 05:15:15 PM
UPDATE!!!!

The National Guard just rescued my 2nd cousin's family after being on I-65 for 20+ hours.  One of them is staying with the vehicle, so the Guard can get gas to them and get the vehicle back to their home. The interstate is back open, although travel is (understandably) moving quite slowly.

Thanks for your thoughts and prayers, they sure help!! #2GTG !!!
Awesome news.  Glad your mind can rest easy now. :)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 05:18:04 PM
Been getting a few hours of "hominy" snow, as my Grandmother called it.  Not quite sleet, not quite snow.  Turned the deck white, along with grassy surfaces, and my roof.  Sidewalk is totally iced over. 

Last vestiges of Thor...
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: NashRugger on March 05, 2015, 05:24:54 PM
I'm honestly glad we didn't receive what parts of Kentucky did because the flooding to come is going to be pretty severe.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Jason M on March 05, 2015, 05:49:51 PM
That's great news about the family Servo :) and I can't get any of the photos I took to upload...oh well if anyone wants to see them they are on my Facebook page....measured 8 inches here :)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 05, 2015, 06:30:09 PM
I'm honestly glad we didn't receive what parts of Kentucky did because the flooding to come is going to be pretty severe.


Considering it's ongoing even before the snow meltdown, this is going to be a long-term flood event.  There's no where for the snow to go.  The ground is saturated.

One bright spot is there are no major weather systems for the next seven days (as seen right now).  So there won't be a lot of rain to exasperate the situation .  Even so, with rivers already full, the flooding won't abate any time soon. 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2015, 06:39:49 PM
I'll say my grade bumps up to a B from a C for this winter. Got just under 4 inches of great powder here. Hardly any sleet and just a glaze of freezing rain. I think if we hadn't just missed out on 30 inches of snow over 3 weeks, Id probably give this winter an A. I think my total for the year is now greater than 2009/2010, so it's now the second highest seasonal total since I moved here in August 03.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Brian on March 05, 2015, 07:13:55 PM
55 degree temp drop in 28 hours (40 deg in 12)  pretty interesting system as a whole to hopefully end winter round these parts
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 05, 2015, 07:17:06 PM
Probably one of the first excellent radiational cooling nights I've seen in quite some time with a deep snowpack in Memphis metro . Winds should go light here after dark. KMEM set it's all time record low for March tonight
What is the all-time?
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 05, 2015, 07:20:00 PM
So I guess I will be starting every winter weather thread from now on...won't I?
Kevin, I will kickstart winter with a thread based on nothing.  This will somehow miraculously turn into a sleet storm.  Then, you will take over.  Next year, we just need to start in December!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 05, 2015, 07:37:00 PM
So I guess I will be starting every winter weather thread from now on...won't I?

100% agree. You are the designated thread starter but you only get about 75% credit. Eric and I get 25 % for bringing up what perfect setup we have been missing.  8)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2015, 08:08:07 PM

What is the all-time?

Looks to be 14
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 05, 2015, 08:26:51 PM
Here is a pic from around sunrise this morning. Exactly 12 inches on patio table.                                                                                                          (http://i57.tinypic.com/30swy6s.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 05, 2015, 08:39:03 PM
Looks to be 14

My forecast low is -2. Do not know if we make it but I assume it would obliterate record.  ::cold::
Title: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: tntwilight on March 05, 2015, 08:42:48 PM
I am thankful to finally have more than an inch of snow in my area of Centerville,TN during a single storm.  We ended up with a measured three inch snow with a half an inch to one inch of sleet underneath.  Also, there is a light glaze of freezing rain under the sleet.  From reading what others posted on the forum and the chat room, it seems this storm was closely on track with the modeled projections.  Yay!!!  I'm thankful for the members that post on this forum and the online chat.  You guys are AWESOME!!!  Thanks for keeping those of us less weather inclined snow lovers, up-to-date! 
 
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 05, 2015, 09:01:45 PM
Just before sunset on a cold and icy evening...
(http://i61.tinypic.com/1zbrz1c.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 05, 2015, 09:25:58 PM
100% agree. You are the designated thread starter but you only get about 75% credit. Eric and I get 25 % for bringing up what perfect setup we have been missing.  8)
Wait, now, at least I insisted that Kevin had to be the thread starter!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 05, 2015, 09:27:15 PM
Looks to be 14
Wow, I would've thought much lower.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: JayCee on March 06, 2015, 07:33:34 AM
I thought this was an interesting pic from eastern Kentucky.  Snow with rivers well out of their banks.

Also, you can plainly see from this vantage point that eastern Kentucky is just a more eroded version of the same plateau feature that heads south into Tennessee.

(http://i58.tinypic.com/1zxuus4.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Sandra on March 06, 2015, 08:35:57 AM
not sure if this will work. thought it was funny.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Sandra on March 06, 2015, 08:36:37 AM
Yea, it worked!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2015, 08:39:21 AM
(http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/03/06/22042ba964d7734190e86e7df263bf78.jpg)(http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/03/06/f0a74052bd7e4c50967400e4222ee8e7.jpg)

For archives
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: cd2play on March 06, 2015, 09:02:34 AM
To put things into perspective... Here it is MARCH... and this cold spell is colder than ANY of the temps we had the entire winter of 2011-12 and 2012-13.  LOL
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 06, 2015, 11:14:48 AM
Cleared my house dogs a trail this morning.  ::snowman::

(http://i58.tinypic.com/20gy0du.jpg)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: CT_Yankee on March 06, 2015, 02:17:11 PM
I ended up with a total of about 1/2" of sleet on top of 0.2" freezing rain, and just a trace of snow.  Not exactly a hit in my neck of the woods, but I'm glad to see BNA get rid of that "dome" and many of you end up with something to remember.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ChrisPC on March 06, 2015, 03:35:56 PM
This stuff is melting fast!  ::blowtorch::

It's that March sun angle. I brushed the snow off my car windshields today, and there was still ice from Wednesday night. An hour later, the glass was dry and clean. There isn't much, if any snow left on my cars this afternoon. My street is already clean and dry, and the sidewalk is getting there. Even a lot of the lawn is clearing out. This morning I still had a solid white snowpack of 3.5" all over it.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2015, 04:55:09 PM
Great vid of the snow storm overnight March 5 in case folks (most people) slept through it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ougAqZk1ogk
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on March 06, 2015, 06:16:19 PM
Still no grass showing in my yard, only place is right next to my porch about a foot out that has melted to the ground.  Still about 5 inches in my yard.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 06, 2015, 09:17:28 PM
I ended up with a total of about 1/2" of sleet on top of 0.2" freezing rain, and just a trace of snow.  Not exactly a hit in my neck of the woods, but I'm glad to see BNA get rid of that "dome" and many of you end up with something to remember.
Thank you!
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: mempho on March 07, 2015, 07:05:42 AM
Nice Satellite Image

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 07, 2015, 10:49:48 AM
If you like looking at "lots" of pics. Here is Dyer County.
If it ask you to register just put in a name. It is only a registry to keep up with views.

http://www.lenoxgirl.com/p901858188/h2F68C4A7#hbe7a75a
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 07, 2015, 12:23:46 PM
Via NWS Memphis...

Quote
Since 1928, this is only the 2nd time that Memphis has had 1" of snow on the ground for 3 or more consecutive days in March.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Spankadelphia on March 07, 2015, 03:39:23 PM
Yup.  This stuff had some serious staying power.  Kind of sad to see it melt away.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 09, 2015, 09:17:14 AM
Finally got us one of those train in the snow pics in Dyersburg.  ::applause::

(https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10450846_730199567097418_7560342261925222427_n.jpg?oh=76e061a40163ba575682c7a85d881985&oe=5590D38C&__gda__=1438336230_69323c57640d7bfe16a2f7fbc65aa0ff)
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Hank W on March 09, 2015, 11:21:44 AM
It's always amazing to see the way that individual bands can affect totals over such small areas. Shelby County had a pretty decent gradient that wasn't reported very well. I regret that I didn't get a chance to send in a report during the event. But Collierville and southeastern areas of Germantown only received around 2.5 sleet+snow. Whereas areas just as close as Midtown to Cordova were near 5. We forget sometimes that it's those little bands that will make or break you. This was a fun system to track from SWAD all the way through the event! Thanks to everyone who provided such great information.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: Kevin Terry on March 09, 2015, 12:39:04 PM
It's always amazing to see the way that individual bands can affect totals over such small areas. Shelby County had a pretty decent gradient that wasn't reported very well. I regret that I didn't get a chance to send in a report during the event. But Collierville and southeastern areas of Germantown only received around 2.5 sleet+snow. Whereas areas just as close as Midtown to Cordova were near 5. We forget sometimes that it's those little bands that will make or break you. This was a fun system to track from SWAD all the way through the event! Thanks to everyone who provided such great information.

I think one of the things that enhanced the totals in the Downtown-Cordova corridor was the changeover was perfectly timed to that insane initial band of 40-45 dbz that was over those areas. I never measured but I would legitimately guess rates were about 2"/hr...and it dumped about an inch in 30 minutes before moving NE. Areas further southeast saw a later changeover and missed those heavier returns as they had already moved through. As you say...those bands can make or break you.

Otherwise, I completely agree. It was a very fun system to track...to me at least it felt like a huge sigh of relief to finally get a legitimate winter storm that included heavy snow after years of disappointment. Finally a system most of the membership was able to seriously enjoy every step of the way without feeling like time and effort was wasted.
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: SKEW-TIM on March 09, 2015, 04:49:47 PM
took these last week, when cabin fever hit!

https://www.facebook.com/tsmith7101/posts/855403887851607?pnref=story
Title: Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
Post by: ServoCrow on March 10, 2015, 10:05:19 AM
took these last week, when cabin fever hit!

https://www.facebook.com/tsmith7101/posts/855403887851607?pnref=story

Great pictures!!