Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => TNWx Vault of Fame and Infamy => Topic started by: Curt on April 23, 2011, 02:08:01 PM

Title: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 23, 2011, 02:08:01 PM
Please start posting about MS River or any other river flooding here.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 23, 2011, 02:13:04 PM
For future reference for MS River at Memphis:

Quote
48.7 This is a record flood.
48 Riverside Drive on the Memphis water front and Tom Lee Park is flooded.
44 there is significant flooding occurring along both banks of the river in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi
43.2 Water begins to go over lowest dike around Alan Steam Plant ash settling ponds
40 Homsteads on Robinson Cruso Island are flooding. There is extensive backwater flooding along the Wolf and Loosahatchie River in western Shelby County.
34 Camp on Robinson Road right inside the levee is totally flooded. Roads to industries inside the levee south of West Memphis are flooding.
32.5 Harbortown boat ramp at the mouth of the Wolf River is covered. Robinson Road is under water north of Interstate 40. Access roads to fields in extreme southwest Shelby County are flooded in spots.
31 Most of the farmland west of Memphis is under water. Dacus Lake Road north of Interstate 40 is flooded.



Quote
Historical Crests
(1) 48.70 ft on 02/10/1937
(2) 45.80 ft on 04/23/1927
(3) 40.76 ft on 03/14/1997
(4) 40.50 ft on 05/08/1973
(5) 40.50 ft on 02/22/1950
(6) 40.30 ft on 03/07/1975
(7) 40.20 ft on 05/22/1961
(8 )  39.20 ft on 04/06/1945
(9) 39.20 ft on 05/15/1983
(10) 39.10 ft on 06/01/1995
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 23, 2011, 02:28:48 PM
I'm only quoting warnings from Cairo and downriver.

Quote
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT CARUTHERSVILLE
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 12 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS...36.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY APRIL 15 AND WILL CONTINUE
  RISING TO NEAR 45.5 FEET BY FRIDAY MAY 6
.  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY
  BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
AT 45.0 FEET, THE FRONTLINE LEVEE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UP AND
DOWN FROM CHIC IN DYER COUNTY COULD BE TOPPED.
  ALL AREAS THAT ARE
PROTECTED BY THE FRONTLINE LEVEE COULD FLOOD..

Quote
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT TIPTONVILLE
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 12 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS...39.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 37.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
  RISING TO NEAR 48.0 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MAY 4.  ADDITIONAL RISES
  MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
AT 47.0 FEET, PORTIONS OF THE TIPTONVILLE LEVEE EXTENSION ARE OVER
TOPPED AT THIS LEVEL.  EVACUATIONS IN THE LOW AREAS OF TIPTONVILLE
ARE NECESSARY.

Quote
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OHIO RIVER AT CAIRO.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 12:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 51.1 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 40.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 58.5 FEET BY
  TUESDAY MAY 3RD.
* IMPACT...AT 59.5 FEET...THIS FLOOD WILL EXCEED THE HIGHEST STAGE ON
  RECORD.


Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 23, 2011, 08:39:09 PM
As many of you know, I work at the casinos in Tunica.  I will try to get some pictures from the top of the Horseshoe Casino Hotel once this thing peaks (assuming we will not have to close!  ::wow:: )

I will say, thing are coming together to have a pretty big event on the ole Mississippi this year.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 12:18:10 PM
Caruthersville, MO has just been upgraded to record flooding forecast. Helena, AR has just been upgraded to moderate flooding forecast.

Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLOOD WARNING FOR  
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT CARUTHERSVILLE  
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.  
* AT 11 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS...37.6 FEET.  
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET.  
* THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE  AND WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR  
  47.0 FEET BY FRIDAY MAY 6.  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE  
  THEREAFTER.  
AT 49.0 FEET, TIPTONVILLE OBION LEVEE SYSTEM IS TOPPED..    

Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLOOD WARNING FOR  
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT HELENA  
* FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.  
* AT 11 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS...39.4 FEET.  
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 44.0 FEET.  
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SATURDAY APRIL 30 AND  
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 51.5 FEET BY TUESDAY MAY 10. ADDITIONAL  
  RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.  
AT 51.0 FEET,  LOADING DOCKS NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES ARE FLOODED.  

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 12:22:42 PM
Memphis crest has been rasied to 44.0 feet...just below major flood

Quote
MEMPHIS        34  31.5  +0.7 32.3 32.9 33.6 34.7 35.7 44.0 05/08A 04/27A
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 24, 2011, 01:14:51 PM
Memphis crest has been rasied to 44.0 feet...just below major flood


And now are are fliriting with flooding on the level of 1927. That flood allowed the army corps to do some serious work on the levees, which should prevent the kind of catastrophic flooding seen way back when. Nontheless, there is only so much much that the levees can hold back, even with current standards as such. 44 feet will most likely flood much more than just Arkansas fields. The Wolf river usually backs up significantly into homes and businesses in north Memphis at levels lower than that.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: StormNine on April 24, 2011, 01:19:40 PM
The Ohio River at Cairo may approach 60feet.  Higher than 1937 levels, and I believe may be high enough in Far West KY on both the Ohio and MS to be able to topple of levees.  Top of protection at Cairo IL is 64 feet.  Some towns along the MS and OH river do not have levee or dam protection those towns could be devastated. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: justinmundie on April 24, 2011, 01:48:38 PM
Was it 2001 when the wolf river flooded all of cbhs's athletic fields?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 24, 2011, 02:06:04 PM
Was it 2001 when the wolf river flooded all of cbhs's athletic fields?

Yup. That was due to heavy rains in the Wolf River basin. I want to say it had close to a record crest in Germantown. With the MS River rising and not allowing tributaries to empty, they simply get backed up; any heavy rains in their basins would most certainly aggrevate. I have never seen the kinf of flooding along the MS river that we may see in my lifetime so far; so its impacts even as far in as G'town could be impacted somewhat.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 24, 2011, 02:07:42 PM
And not to look to far out, but another heavy rain maker looks to be on tap for next weekend.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 24, 2011, 03:13:47 PM
This is going to be a very interesting next few weeks at work for me being right next to the river and all!
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 24, 2011, 07:14:00 PM
 How do things look for downtown Memphis?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 24, 2011, 07:38:39 PM
How do things look for downtown Memphis?

According to the NWS at 48 ft Tom Lee Park and Riverside Drive go under. 48 ft has only been eclipsed once, in 1937. Downtown's elevation protects it pretty well. Backwater flooding will be the big threat in Shelby County. Memphis doesn't have to deal with potential levee overtopping or levee breaches like the Delta areas and floodplains do.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 24, 2011, 08:31:11 PM
MEG has also issued a PDS Flash Flood Watch.  There is not yet a thread about the severe weather threat over the next few days (25th thru the 27th), but I think both the flooding and the severe could each be major events at this time and this could be a big deal for all of us. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 24, 2011, 08:34:00 PM
Also, on a side note...it looks like Memphis in May might be hit by yet another weather event.  A major river flood that floods Tom Lee Park could wipe the whole event out. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2011, 08:35:26 PM
MEG has also issued a PDS Flash Flood Watch.  There is not yet a thread about the severe weather threat over the next few days (25th thru the 27th), but I think both the flooding and the severe could each be major events at this time and this could be a big deal for all of us. 
thats why i think this system is called, pick your own poison storm threat. tornadoes, floods, wind damage and large hail. yeah there is a thread mempho 25th to 27th. severe threat.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 24, 2011, 08:36:56 PM
  There is not yet a thread about the severe weather threat over the next few days (25th thru the 27th),

Its over here:
http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2890.msg128045.html#msg128045 (http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2890.msg128045.html#msg128045)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 24, 2011, 09:56:05 PM
Also, on a side note...it looks like Memphis in May might be hit by yet another weather event.  A major river flood that floods Tom Lee Park could wipe the whole event out. 

If the Mississippi stays within forecast levels then Tom Lee Park shouldn't be flooded, and if it does I don't think it would flood until after the concerts. But I wonder if the high volume or danger from such high water would affect anything. Plus some models are showing a heavy rain threat next weekend too.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on April 24, 2011, 10:32:04 PM
If the Mississippi stays within forecast levels then Tom Lee Park shouldn't be flooded, and if it does I don't think it would flood until after the concerts. But I wonder if the high volume or danger from such high water would affect anything. Plus some models are showing a heavy rain threat next weekend too.

Music fest will be fine... The concern would be for BBQ fest on May 12-14. Of course, if Tom Lee Park is flooded, my first floor apartment on Mud Island will probably be flooded as well. I'll try to post pics of Mud Island as the water rises... Already out of it's banks onto the lower level of the river park.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 10:41:50 PM
As of now...the river crest on Memphis is forecast to be 5/8. I believe that's the one weekend that nothing is happening on Tom Lee Park. Couldn't time it better ;)

As mentioned...needs to get to 48 feet to flood out Tom Lee Park and Riverside Drive. So far...that is not forecast...but I wouldn't rule it out if QPF is much more than currently forecast. Also have to remember river forecasts only account for next 48 hours of QPF (normally 24...but they are extending it for this event)...and Today's crest was updated this morning...so it hasn't factored in anything expected Tuesday-Wednesday yet. Should things hold...the crest will likely go up further.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 24, 2011, 10:55:45 PM

Quote
Hey guys... Id like to share how serious this is for my extended family. My step-dad's parents have lived at an run Daily's Boat Dock and Island 40 Chute in Marion since at least as far back as the 70s... Im guessing that they have always lived over there. When the river gets high, they load up bass boats with their belongings that cant get wet and tie them to the house. When they first built over there, the river came up high enough to go up half way up the walls. They then had the house lifted, and put the garage under the house. As the water rises, it never really gets into the house...

My step dad tells stories of being in high school and having to row the boat to the levee to catch the bus.. or his mom would take the boat to the levee and hop in the car to go to the store, and boat her groceries back to the house.

But this River flooding is going to be bad. They are currently packing up all their belongings, all their furniture, and even the carpet. They fully expect the river to sweep the house off its foundation. The 30 acres of land... the 10 acres of pecan trees.. They say will be useless when the river goes down.

My step dad said that if the levee breaks at Cairo IL it will take 5-7 minutes for Marion AR to flood. If the levee breaks at Marion, the river will extend all the way over to the Court House and sweep all the houses off their foundations.

Its a very scary thought for me, thinking about my step dads parents. The boat dock was their business and to walk away from that is a wild thought.

My step dad is in farming. He said that if they breached the levee up north somewhere, it probably will not help to relieve any of the pressure down there. The levee would break before it was topped, because as water saturates the bottom it would act like a sand castle with waves running along side the wall.


Goodness Chris. I hope the best for your family.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 24, 2011, 11:14:58 PM
Here is some info about the New Madrid Floodway. Its basically ag land 35 miles long designed to flood on purpose when MS River overflows. I dont know of it has been used since its design in 1928. I bet its about to be on "go" mode in the near future.

Quote
The Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway is a component of the Mississippi River and Tributaries (MR&T) Project, and is located on the west bank of the Mississippi River in southeast Missouri just below the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. The construction and operation of the floodway was authorized by the 1928 Flood Control Act and later modified by the 1965 Flood Control Act. The purpose of the floodway is to lower flood stages upstream and adjacent to the floodway during major flood events. The Floodway is some 35 miles in length and varies from 4 to 12 miles in width. It comprises about 205 square miles of alluvial valley land. The primary features of the floodway are the setback (mainline) levee, which extends from Birds Point, Missouri, to New Madrid, Missouri, and the frontline levee which is located on the west bank of the river and generally follows its alignment. Within the frontline levee, there are two fuseplug sections. These sections were designed and built 2 feet flower than the remaining portions of the frontline levee. The upper fuseplug section is 11 miles in length and is located in the northernmost reach of the frontline levee. The lower fuseplug is 5 miles in length and is located in the extreme lower end of the frontline levee. In addition, there is an existing 1500-foot gap which is located between the setback levee and the end of the frontline levee. This opening currently provides a drainage outlet for interior run-off and allows flood backwaters to enter the floodway.  
  
The existing Plan of Operation for the Floodway was reviewed by Missouri state officials in November 1985 and approved by the President, MRC, in January 1986. The plan required modification to the frontline levee which includes raising 12,500 feet of the upper fuseplug and 7,500 feet of the lower fuseplug and installing horizontal polyethylene pipe in three crevasse locations. These crevasse locations are designated as Inflow, Inflow/Outflow No. 1 and Inflow/Outflow No. 2. In addition to the modifications to the frontline levee, all materials, including the blasting agent which will be pumped into the pipes in the levee, and equipment necessary to place the floodway into operation have been acquired by the Memphis District.
  
In order to assure adequate water access to the crevasse sites access lanes are required from the Mississippi River to and along the designated crevasses. With a project design flood rate of rise, approximately 2 feet per day, initial preparation of floodway is required when the stage at the Cairo, IL, gage is approximately 59 feet; completion of preparation of the Inflow Crevasse at 60 feet; and operation of the floodway begins upon order of the President, MRC.

Cairo is estimated to have a record crest at 60 feet.

(http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/9066/67966265.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:02:10 AM
Hey guys... Id like to share how serious this is for my extended family. My step-dad's parents have lived at an run Daily's Boat Dock and Island 40 Chute in Marion since at least as far back as the 70s... Im guessing that they have always lived over there. When the river gets high, they load up bass boats with their belongings that cant get wet and tie them to the house. When they first built over there, the river came up high enough to go up half way up the walls. They then had the house lifted, and put the garage under the house. As the water rises, it never really gets into the house...

My step dad tells stories of being in high school and having to row the boat to the levee to catch the bus.. or his mom would take the boat to the levee and hop in the car to go to the store, and boat her groceries back to the house.

But this River flooding is going to be bad. They are currently packing up all their belongings, all their furniture, and even the carpet. They fully expect the river to sweep the house off its foundation. The 30 acres of land... the 10 acres of pecan trees.. They say will be useless when the river goes down.

My step dad said that if the levee breaks at Cairo IL it will take 5-7 minutes for Marion AR to flood. If the levee breaks at Marion, the river will extend all the way over to the Court House and sweep all the houses off their foundations.

Its a very scary thought for me, thinking about my step dads parents. The boat dock was their business and to walk away from that is a wild thought.

My step dad is in farming. He said that if they breached the levee up north somewhere, it probably will not help to relieve any of the pressure down there. The levee would break before it was topped, because as water saturates the bottom it would act like a sand castle with waves running along side the wall.

When I was at MEG in March 2008 during that big flood event...they were being advised to closely monitor for a possible levee break at Cairo then. I actually don't know if that ever got out publicly. They were very concerned about it. Fortunately it didn't happen. The river only reached 53' feet then though...hopefully it can hold up again.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 25, 2011, 12:13:06 AM
When I was at MEG in March 2008 during that big flood event...they were being advised to closely monitor for a possible levee break at Cairo then. I actually don't know if that ever got out publicly. They were very concerned about it. Fortunately it didn't happen. The river only reached 53' feet then though...hopefully it can hold up again.

If the river goes as high as forcasted now, I do not see us getting away with no levees breaking.  I am concerned about where I work.  Harrah's is actually on a natural lake and will likely be closed when the river crests.  We were about 6" away from closing in 2008.  As far as the other casinos I work at, we are inside the levee but the land is raised all around the casinos and they are on artificial ponds. The land is about 5' lower than the levee itself.  We may be pushing it with the river getting that high.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:23:10 AM
If the river goes as high as forcasted now, I do not see us getting away with no levees breaking.  I am concerned about where I work.  Harrah's is actually on a natural lake and will likely be closed when the river crests.  We were about 6" away from closing in 2008.  As far as the other casinos I work at, we are inside the levee but the land is raised all around the casinos and they are on artificial ponds. The land is about 5' lower than the levee itself.  We may be pushing it with the river getting that high.

Unfortunately...you're correct. Weaker levee systems at the least will likely see some breaching and perhaps could just be completely overtopped. We saw this in 2008...2009 and 2010 in a few cases that may not be as extreme as this one will be. Certainly the risk is there and hopefully people will be properly advised of what to do just in case it happens. As is standard...levee or dam breaches and overtoppings will require a Flash Flood Warning by the WFO as an addition to whatever was already the case if/when they occur.

The other big problem will be backwater flooding. Here in Shelby County...the Wolf and Loosahatchie are going to create big problems in at least NW/W Shelby County. I'm not sure honestly how far East this could work with these levels. This will of course be repeated in every county adjacent to the river...with the worst effects upstream. The Missouri Bootheel and NW TN could be severely impacted with extensive flooding...full evacuations of towns may be required there in a few cases.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 01:09:09 AM
When I was at MEG in March 2008 during that big flood event...they were being advised to closely monitor for a possible levee break at Cairo then. I actually don't know if that ever got out publicly. They were very concerned about it. Fortunately it didn't happen. The river only reached 53' feet then though...hopefully it can hold up again.

I don't how a break at Cairo would have bad consequences several counties downstream. I thought it was a typo in WFayetteTN's post the first time. A break at Cairo would obviously be awful for surrounding Cairo but would a break cause flooding all the way to Crittenden County? Am I reading the context wrong?

I'm curious as to backwater flooding in Shelby though. The Wolf is only a couple miles north of me here in Midtown. I'm assuming the Wolf in western Shelby is pretty protected since it's so populated.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:10:32 AM
I don't how a break at Cairo would have bad consequences several counties downstream. I thought it was a typo in WFayetteTN's post the first time. A break at Cairo would obviously be awful for surrounding Cairo but would a break cause flooding all the way to Crittenden County? Am I reading the context wrong?

I'm curious as to backwater flooding in Shelby though. The Wolf is only a couple miles north of me here in Midtown. I'm assuming the Wolf in western Shelby is pretty protected since it's so populated.

I'm not sure myself...but we were notified that a break upstream at Cairo would cause rapid rises all the way downstream the river to at least the Caruthersville and Tiptonville stages...so apparently there is some risk if it breaks...not sure if this may be outdated now by newer technology and developments or so forth.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 01:14:25 AM
I'm not sure myself...but we were notified that a break upstream at Cairo would cause rapid rises all the way downstream the river to at least the Caruthersville and Tiptonville stages...so apparently there is some risk if it breaks...not sure if this may be outdated now by newer technology and developments or so forth.

How?  Wouldn't that cause more water to go over the banks at Cairo, leaving less water flowing downstream toward Arkansas?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:15:38 AM
How?  Wouldn't that cause more water to go over the banks at Cairo, leaving less water flowing downstream toward Arkansas?

Like I said...I don't honestly know. This was relayed through ACE during the 2008 flood event within a conference call.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 25, 2011, 01:27:27 AM
How?  Wouldn't that cause more water to go over the banks at Cairo, leaving less water flowing downstream toward Arkansas?

I dont know how it works either. I will try to get some clarification in the next few days and let you know. Logic would tell me that if you relieved the restrictions in one place and it flooded out, it would relieve pressure downstream. I also thought that 5-7 min was quite fast to get that far.  I honestly do not know.. will check though.

There was a breach near Marion before. I dont know the details (year, size, etc), but if that creates a weakness for a future breach, I would say this event would definitely test it.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 01:32:10 AM
If the river goes as high as forcasted now, I do not see us getting away with no levees breaking.  I am concerned about where I work.  Harrah's is actually on a natural lake and will likely be closed when the river crests.  We were about 6" away from closing in 2008.  As far as the other casinos I work at, we are inside the levee but the land is raised all around the casinos and they are on artificial ponds. The land is about 5' lower than the levee itself.  We may be pushing it with the river getting that high.

An interesting fact Tunica County is that it survived 1927 and 1937 fairly intact. 1937 had boils but they contained them. In 1927 the levee broke on the Arkansas side parallel to Tunica and then of course broke further downstream burying the lower Delta in up to 30 ft of water.

I'd imagine the casinos will have to close this time. I remember how high 2008 was. In 1997 some casinos closed and never came back, but there weren't the permanent type structures Tunica has now.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 01:34:43 AM
Hah, well glad to see I'm not the only one confused. Interesting nonetheless.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2011, 03:32:56 AM
I am researching more info, but I do believe that in addition to the New Madrid Floodway, there is another major floodway that will drain several basins(MS, St. Francis) through the agricultural and mostly uninhabited lands if the Missouri bootheel into the Big Lake NWR in northern Missisippi County Arkansas. Big Lake is a vast area of water and swamplands, that if flooded, I would guess cause major flooding through the MS alluvial plain. I need to look at more info to be specific though.

This diversion system along with the inability of tributaries of east Arkansas to drain into the swollen MS is what I would believe cause the most problems on the west side of the MS River. My understanding is that in both '27 (much less protection from the Army Corp) and '37, much of Eastern Arkansas on both sides of Crowley's Ridge were covered with some depth of water. Perhaps we need to look in this case at not just the MS, but the St. Francis and Tyronza, especially for Crittenden Co problems.



From the encyclopedia of Arkansas History and Culture (http://www.encyclopediaofarkansas.net/encyclopedia/entry-detail.aspx?entryID=4878):

Quote
Arkansas’s floodwaters came from tributary streams no longer able to drain effectively due to the cresting Mississippi River. Specifically, Bayou de View as well as the Black, Cache, L’Anguille, Little Red, Spring, Strawberry, St. Francis, Tyronza, and White rivers spilled across agriculture terrain mostly bare of crops that time of year. While the Arkansas River was at flood stage at Van Buren (Crawford County) for only one day, the White River exceeded flood stages below Calico Rock (Izard County), and the St. Francis River had considerable flooding from January into March. The largely rural, agricultural Delta saw the spread of the floodwaters into tenants’ and sharecroppers’ homes and communities already struggling from the effects of drought, the Great Depression, and the Dust Bowl.

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 07:21:06 AM
Its over here:
http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2890.msg128045.html#msg128045 (http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2890.msg128045.html#msg128045)

Thanks....I thought it was really odd that noone was talking about this one and I guess I chalked it up to a combination of severe fatigue and Easter weekend.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: dwagner88 on April 25, 2011, 07:59:21 AM
It looks to me like the highest totals will be in the MO bootheel. Latest HPC forecast has an additional 6-8 inches on top of the 6 or so inches that has already fallen. HPC forecasts only represent basin-average rainfall so isolated amounts are likely to be much higher.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 08:05:15 AM
The problem to pin down are the locations that could see training thunderstorms...not just rain. Whoever gets those will see a drastic increase in rainfall totals not forecasted by the HPC maps or the local offices.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2011, 08:13:04 AM
all depends were the warm frontal boundary lies at. were the training will be takiing place. looks to be across the boothill reachiing through very lower ohio valley region.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 08:24:57 AM
The problem to pin down are the locations that could see training thunderstorms...not just rain. Whoever gets those will see a drastic increase in rainfall totals not forecasted by the HPC maps or the local offices.

Yep. Everyone got a lot of rain in West and Middle Tennessee last May, but the worst stuff was on an access from just west of Franklin up to just east of Hendersonville, if I remember correctly. We had two separate lines of intense thunderstorms that just sat on that area for hours with some of the most intense rain I've seen.

Sunday morning, which is when the worst flooding occurred in East Nashville, I was sitting on the porch watching the monsoon and manhole covers started popping up because the sewers were full.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 08:49:43 AM
...BREAKING...

Quote
POPLAR BLUFF, MO (KAIT) – The Poplar Bluff Police Department has ordered a mandatory evacuation for the southern portion of Poplar Bluff.

According to the Poplar Bluff Police Department, the levee on Black River near Butler County Road 607 has been compromised, and a catastrophic failure was imminent.

The areas included in the mandatory evacuation are between the areas south of the Black River, and East of Highway WW (Ditch Road.)

The police are asking residents who live in this area to move to higher ground immediately. They're also asking residents east of Highway WW to monitor the water levels in their neighborhood and to make preparations to move if necessary.

A shelter has been set up at the Black River Coliseum.

If you have any questions or concerns you're asked to contact the Poplar Bluff Police Department at 573-686-8685.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 08:54:49 AM
If there's any good news...portions of the OH Valley are not getting the rain amounts they were expected to. That could have eventual downstream effects into the MS. We'll see what the updated river forecasts in a few hours looks like...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:56:55 AM
Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LEVEE ON THE BLACK RIVER IN BUTLER COUNTY
MISSOURI

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 927 AM CDT...THE FAILURE OF A LEVEE ON THE BLACK RIVER WAS
REPORTED BY BUTLER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THE LOCATION OF THE
LEVEE FAILURE WAS NEAR COUNTY ROAD 607 SOUTHEAST OF POPLAR
BLUFF.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:00:27 AM
KAIT is reporting more than 1000 homes are being evacuated in Poplar Bluff...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: toastido on April 25, 2011, 10:06:51 AM
KAIT is reporting more than 1000 homes are being evacuated in Poplar Bluff...

And to think... this thing is just getting started... ::drowning::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 10:14:16 AM
I looked at the map, and Poplar Bluff is not on the Mississippi but on a tributary that drains into the St. Francis River watershed, which ultimately flows into the Mississippi River well south of Memphis.  So, the water there won't immediately affect TN counties.  However, there are plenty of other tributaries and the Mississippi itself that are carrying similar runoff downstream...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:59:43 AM
Updated LMRFC 48-hour QPF...this will be factored into updated MS River forecasts shortly...
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/lmrfc/precip/qpf/12z/48_2011042512f048.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 11:35:02 AM
Hearing early information that MS River crests may be further raised again shortly in update coming momentarily...not sure how reliable but we'll see soon...2 more foot raise in Memphis crest will move it into a major flood and very close to record levels...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:05:36 PM
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2011/apr/25/near-record-flooding-memphis-along-mississippi-riv/

Quote
Memphis will experience near-record flooding along the Mississippi River early next month, and river stages could surpass the historic crest of the great flood of 1937 if the Midwest continues to receive heavy amounts of rain, forecasters said this morning.

The river currently is forecast to crest on May 8 at 44 feet -- the highest level since 1937. But when the forecast is updated later today, "it will go higher," said National Weather Service meteorologist Danny Gant.

The all-time record stage at Memphis of 48.7 feet, set on Feb. 10, 1937, is in jeopardy, Gant said.

The forecast already has prompted the cancellation of the 30th Annual Outdoors Inc. Canoe & Kayak Race, scheduled for May 7, because the parking area on Mud Island will be underwater, race director Joe Royer announced.

It's too early to predict how the high water might affect the Memphis In May International Festival on Tom Lee Park, but a river stage of around 50 feet would flood parts of Riverside Drive, Gant said. Other low-lying areas near Downtown, including The Pyramid parking lot and the U.S. Coast Guard facilities on Wolf River Harbor, also could be inundated.

Meantime, Col. Vernie Reichling, district commander for the Corps of Engineers in Memphis, announced stepped-up preparations to fight flooding along much of the Lower Mississippi River.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 01:28:00 PM
Updated graphic from OHX:

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image2.gif)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:29:21 PM
Quote
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG continues Flood Warning for the St. Francis River at St. Francis [AR] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG extends time of Flood Warning for the St. Francis River at Lake City [AR] valid at Apr 26, 7:00 PM CDT till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG extends time of Flood Warning for the St. Francis River at Madison [AR] valid at Apr 27, 11:40 PM CDT till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 5:40 AM CDT for the Obion River near Martin [TN] till Apr 28, 10:25 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 10:00 PM CDT for the Obion River near Obion [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 7:00 PM CDT for the Obion River near Bogota [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 4:16 PM CDT for the South Fork Forked Deer River at Jackson [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 9:34 PM CDT for the South Fork Forked Deer River near Halls [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 2:05 PM CDT for the Wolf River at Germantown [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 5:54 AM CDT for the Wolf River at Rossville [MS] till Apr 28, 7:00 AM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 3:00 PM CDT for the North Fork Forked Deer River at Dyersburg [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 28, 1:00 PM CDT for the Hatchie River near Bolivar [TN] till Apr 29, 1:00 AM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 29, 1:00 AM CDT for the Hatchie River at Rialto [TN] till Apr 29, 7:00 AM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 7:27 PM CDT for the Loosahatchie River at Arlington [TN] till Apr 28, 2:21 AM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 10:55 AM CDT for the Coldwater River near Sarah [MS] till Apr 28, 5:09 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 28, 7:00 PM CDT for the Talahatchie River at Locopolis [MS] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 28, 11:00 PM CDT for the Talahatchie River near Swan Lake [MS] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 8:36 AM CDT for the Little Talahatchie River at Etta [MS] till Apr 28, 6:13 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 5:59 AM CDT for the Town Creek at Tupelo [MS] till Apr 27, 9:26 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 11:09 AM CDT for the Tombigbee River at Bigbee [MS] till Apr 28, 9:40 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 11:00 PM CDT for the Tombigbee River near Amory [MS] till Apr 28, 6:00 PM CDT
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:48:10 PM
MS River forecast has still not updated yet...running way late from the LMRFC...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 01:52:37 PM
MS River forecast has still not updated yet...running way late from the LMRFC...

A guy just came in to my office (as I'm office weatherman) to ask me why it would be running late.  I said that things often run late when they're looking at major events...not sure what else I could say. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 25, 2011, 02:17:50 PM
A guy just came in to my office (as I'm office weatherman) to ask me why it would be running late.  I said that things often run late when they're looking at major events...not sure what else I could say. 

Id have to say they have bigger fish to fry. Come back to the lesser priority later.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 02:19:26 PM
Id have to say they have bigger fish to fry. Come back to the lesser priority later.

MEG isn't in charge of the River forecasts...they only relay the forecasts and warnings. That lies with the LMRFC. All they do is river forecasts...so I don't know what's been keeping them. They have gotten the smaller river stuff as evidenced by all those warnings...nothing updated on the MS...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 02:41:10 PM
Press Conference upcoming at 3:00 PM from Memphis/Shelby County Mayors regarding MS River flood impacts on their jurisdiction.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 02:45:21 PM
New QPF forecast from the LMRFC...
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/lmrfc/precip/qpf/18z/48_2011042518f048.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 02:58:29 PM
Press Conference upcoming at 3:00 PM from Memphis/Shelby County Mayors regarding MS River flood impacts on their jurisdiction.

I have a quick question and you might be the only person who would know.  Anyway, if I look at the advanced hydrologic prediction center page for Memphis, I notice that they don't give any indicators of what happens beyond 48.0 feet other than noting that 48.7 feet is the record.  I'd assume that no more major events would occur if it happened to hit 50 or even 55 feet.  I realize that we would be talking about an extremely low priority event, but I would imagine that it's simply a matter of measuring elevation.  For instance, one thing I'd like to know is what it would take to flood homes on Mud Island but it might very well be that these are flood-proof locations since the primary driver of Memphis becoming a major city was it's "flood-proof" location right on the Mississippi River (flood plains of the Wolf/Loosahatchie Rivers notwithstanding...speaking primarily of downtown only here).

Furthermore, it appears to me that most of the water does flood somewhere and I'd assume that it primarily goes into the Arkansas side but I'd also be curious as to what the levels are for inundation for places like West Memphis and Marion.  

Anyway, the "current" (not so current) forecast is for 44.0 and we know what happens at 48.0 and that 48.7 is the record but, even if this is purely an academic exercise, I think it would be an interesting thing to know as concern will inevitably grow.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 03:02:03 PM
I have a quick question and you might be the only person who would know.  Anyway, if I look at the advanced hydrologic prediction center page for Memphis, I notice that they don't give any indicators of what happens beyond 48.0 feet other than noting that 48.7 feet is the record.  I'd assume that no more major events would occur if it happened to hit 50 or even 55 feet.  I realize that we would be talking about an extremely low priority event, but I would imagine that it's simply a matter of measuring elevation.  For instance, one thing I'd like to know is what it would take to flood homes on Mud Island but it might very well be that these are flood-proof locations since the primary driver of Memphis becoming a major city was it's "flood-proof" location right on the Mississippi River (flood plains of the Wolf/Loosahatchie Rivers notwithstanding...speaking primarily of downtown only here).

Furthermore, it appears to me that most of the water does flood somewhere and I'd assume that it primarily goes into the Arkansas side but I'd also be curious as to what the levels are for inundation for places like West Memphis and Marion. 

Those are great questions but unfortunately I don't know much about what happens beyond what's on the AHPS page. My vague understanding is something like 55 feet would flood all of Mud Island and Harbor Town...and a similar level to start flooding well into Crittenden County (including West Memphis)...but even then I don't know that confidently. Hopefully we won't be testing above the record anyway...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 03:05:47 PM
Hopefully we won't be testing above the record anyway...

I hope not, as well.  Let me know if you happen to find out over the next few days when they're issuing forecasts that are (hopefully) well below the astronomical levels I was alluding to.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 03:13:58 PM
FWIW...it was noted on the previous page...but the Wolf and Loosahatchie rivers are expected to go into Minor Flooding in the next few days at Germantown and Arlington. Thus far...significant impacts are not expected but future rainfall will ultimately determine that. This will be separate to backwater flooding that will occur later in the week and especially next week that will mostly impact W and NW Shelby County. Whether significant impacts occur as far east as those two gages...TBD...

Several other area rivers will go into either Minor or Moderate Flooding in the next few days. The St. Francis River in AR will go into Major Flooding
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 03:17:21 PM
Those are great questions but unfortunately I don't know much about what happens beyond what's on the AHPS page. My vague understanding is something like 55 feet would flood all of Mud Island and Harbor Town...and a similar level to start flooding well into Crittenden County (including West Memphis)...but even then I don't know that confidently. Hopefully we won't be testing above the record anyway...

But West Memphis has a levee. The entire AR side does. I'd expect the flood threat to be much more dire there because it's an actual flood plain. Levee breaches/overtoppng would have to occur to flood most populated portions of Crittenden County. IMO the situation there would be a lot more serious than Memphis...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 03:22:20 PM
But West Memphis has a levee. The entire AR side does. I'd expect the flood threat to be much more dire there because it's an actual flood plain. Levee breaches/overtoppng would have to occur to flood most populated portions of Crittenden County. IMO the situation there would be a lot more serious than Memphis...


Very true. Memphis..especially Downtown Memphis...would be fine in almost any imaginable scenario. Yes...Tom Lee Park...Riverside Drive and maybe the Pyramid could flood...but it would not be conceivable to have a "Nashville" here. Harbor Town would certainly be at most risk and even then it would take something incredible. The backwater flooding will be what causes eventual evacuations (if they occur) in Shelby County. Crittenden County would take much more direct MS River Floodwaters.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 03:24:33 PM
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/1927_LA_Flood_Map.jpg (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/1927_LA_Flood_Map.jpg)

^ There's a map of areas that flooded in 1927. It's old, but it's pretty interesting. Of course, levees have been improved since then and most of the aerial extent of the flooding occurred because of levee breaks. The backwater flooding is pretty extensive in Shelby...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 03:24:46 PM
Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A 
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR OVERTOPPED LEVEES UPSTREAM OF... 
  CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... 
 
* UNTIL 915 PM CDT 
 
* AT 318 PM CDT...LEVEES ON THE BLACK RIVER ARE BEING OVERTOPPED IN   
BUTLER COUNTY MISSOURI. WATER OVERTOPPING LEVEES WILL SPREAD   
DOWNSTREAM INTO CLAY COUNTY AND WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING NEAR THE   
BLACK RIVER.   
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2011, 03:26:06 PM
One of the worst hit communities in Shelby Co in the 27/37 floods was Frayser.... as if that community needs anything else to devalue properties.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 03:27:37 PM
One of the worst hit communities in Shelby Co in the 27/37 floods was Frayser.... as if that community needs anything else to devalue properties.

I remember them being hit pretty hard in the '97 flood...and of course we're likely going over those levels...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 03:29:45 PM
Quote
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE IMMINENT FAILURE OF A LEVEE REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* AT 255 PM CDT...COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS INDICATED
THE LEVEE ALONG THE BLACK RIVER FROM POPLAR BLUFF TO QULIN HAS BEEN
COMPROMISED IN SIX LOCATIONS.
WATER IS TOPPING THE LEVEE AT SEVERAL
POINTS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL FAILURE OF THE LEVEE SYSTEM
BETWEEN POPLAR BLUFF AND QULIN.

THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS SOUTH AND EAST OF POPLAR BLUFF TO HH
HIGHWAY...AND IS BOUNDED BY THE BLACK RIVER TO THE EAST AND STATE
HIGHWAY 142 TO THE WEST. COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE ALREADY EVACUATED
APPROXIMATELY 500 STRUCTURES...WHICH IMPACTS ABOUT 1000 PEOPLE...IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CITY OF POPLAR BLUFF.


This again why the FFW for Clay County...waters could reach downstream there if this breaks...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 03:32:08 PM
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/1927_LA_Flood_Map.jpg (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/1927_LA_Flood_Map.jpg)

^ There's a map of areas that flooded in 1927. It's old, but it's pretty interesting. Of course, levees have been improved since then and most of the aerial extent of the flooding occurred because of levee breaks. The backwater flooding is pretty extensive in Shelby...

That map I had looked at not long before you posted it.  It has prompted me to search my home and the homes of various family members to see just what our vulnerability is.  

I'm currently searching addresses and looking at the FEMA flood maps for various places in Shelby County.  I have to say that I'm surprised by the extent of areas within the 1% flood plain (1% chance of occurrence in a year).  
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: ultra mag on April 25, 2011, 03:43:51 PM
 Was just told by a unconfirmed source that they may blow the levee around the heloise area to relieve some pressure.Note this is unconfirmed at this time just wandering if anyone else had heard this?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 04:20:18 PM
Quote
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
348 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE, TN HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

  CUMBERLAND RIVER AT CLARKSVILLE AFFECTING MONTGOMERY COUNTY
  HARPETH RIVER NEAR KINGSTON SPRINGS AFFECTING CHEATHAM COUNTY
  HARPETH RIVER AT BELLEVUE AFFECTING DAVIDSON AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
  RED RIVER NEAR PORT ROYAL AFFECTING MONTGOMERY AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES

.UPCOMING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE TO SEVEN INCHES ARE FORECASTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL CAUSE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.
EXPECT FLOODING ON THE HARPETH RIVER FROM BELLEVUE THROUGH KINGSTON SPRINGS...
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND RIVER NEAR CLARKSVILLE...AND ALONG THE RED RIVER NEAR
PORT ROYAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT IMMINENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

TNC037-187-260848-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FL.A.0004.110427T1200Z-110428T1222Z/
/BELT1.1.ER.110427T2200Z.110427T2330Z.110428T0600Z.NO/
348 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE, TN HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR
  THE HARPETH RIVER AT BELLEVUE
* FROM 04/27 07:00 UNTIL 04/28 07:22
* AT 02PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.8 FEET
* THE RIVER IS FORECASTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
* AT 21.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO FLOOD THE PARKING LOT AT THE HARPETH VALLEY
  GOLF CENTER.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: dwagner88 on April 25, 2011, 04:27:48 PM
FWIW...it was noted on the previous page...but the Wolf and Loosahatchie rivers are expected to go into Minor Flooding in the next few days at Germantown and Arlington. Thus far...significant impacts are not expected but future rainfall will ultimately determine that. This will be separate to backwater flooding that will occur later in the week and especially next week that will mostly impact W and NW Shelby County. Whether significant impacts occur as far east as those two gages...TBD...

Several other area rivers will go into either Minor or Moderate Flooding in the next few days. The St. Francis River in AR will go into Major Flooding
Memphis must drain better than Chattanooga. South Chickamauga creek is the largest tributary to the TN river here. A 3 inch rainfall puts it in minor flood. A 6-8"+ rainfall puts it straight into major flooding. I shudder to think what would happen if we got a 13 inch rainfall like BNA did last year. The flood of record on the creek (may 2003), was caused by a 3 day rainfall of 8 inches.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 25, 2011, 04:29:48 PM
I live 1 mile from that location and gauge.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 04:37:58 PM
Memphis crest has been raised to 45.0 feet...still 1 foot below major flood...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 04:41:14 PM
Memphis crest has been raised to 45.0 feet...still 1 foot below major flood...

Interesting, but a little less what I thought I was going to hear.  On another note, the main campus of the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville has been closed due to flooding on campus.  Lots of developments occurring in the "natural state" today. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 04:43:15 PM
I live 1 mile from that location and gauge.

(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/belt1_hg.png)

Flood impacts (according to water level in feet):

Quote
30 WATER MAY APPROACH PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 100. THIS IS ROUGHLY THE 100 YEAR FLOOD LEVEL.
25 WATER BEGINS TO FLOOD PORTIONS OF OLD HARDING PIKE.
24 WATER REACHES THE CLUB HOUSE OF THE HARPETH VALLEY GOLF CENTER.
21 WATER BEGINS TO FLOOD THE PARKING LOT AT THE HARPETH VALLEY GOLF CENTER.
20 WATER BEGINS TO FLOOD THE HARPETH VALLEY GOLF CENTER AND THE ENSWORTH HIGH SCHOOL ATHLETIC FIELDS.
16 THE ACCESS ROAD AND THE PARKING LOT OF THE HARPETH RIVER STATE PARK ARE COMPLETELY INUNDATED.
14 WATER BEGINS TO INUNDATE THE PARKING LOT OF THE HARPETH RIVER STATE PARK AT HIGHWAY 100.

By the way, saying the water "begins" to flood portions of Old Harding Pike at 25 feet is inaccurate.  I've seen that road under water by the golf center a few times... which would be floods under 20 feet, according to what I'm seeing in the historical record.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 25, 2011, 05:06:12 PM
I received a response from my friend at the ACE. He said that even if there was a breach up north, there is still the same amount of volume of water that has to flow south, so a breach up north would not help us down here. A breach to the south would surely help our area, to relieve a bit of the pressure. He said they are already sending barges with explosives up to Cairo. The plan is to blow the levee there when the level reaches 52 feet. Its currently at 50.  (Or maybe its at 60 now, and when it hits 62 they will blow the levee.. for some reason i suddenly got confused on my numbers).  And it would not matter which side they blew, East bank or West Bank.


Also, according to the River stage site at www.srh.noaa.gov/meg at 48 feet, tom lee park and riverside drive are under water. So I would think that mud island would be in trouble by that point. but that is just my (uneducated) opinion.

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 05:10:46 PM
I received a response from my friend at the ACE. He said that even if there was a breach up north, there is still the same amount of volume of water that has to flow south, so a breach up north would not help us down here. A breach to the south would surely help our area, to relieve a bit of the pressure. He said they are already sending barges with explosives up to Cairo. The plan is to blow the levee there when the level reaches 52 feet. Its currently at 50.  (Or maybe its at 60 now, and when it hits 62 they will blow the levee.. for some reason i suddenly got confused on my numbers).  And it would not matter which side they blew, East bank or West Bank.


Also, according to the River stage site at www.srh.noaa.gov/meg at 48 feet, tom lee park and riverside drive are under water. So I would think that mud island would be in trouble by that point. but that is just my (uneducated) opinion.



I believe (I have no hard data) that the developed areas of Mud Island are significantly higher in elevation than Tom Lee Park.  I'm pretty sure of this. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 05:16:24 PM
I received a response from my friend at the ACE. He said that even if there was a breach up north, there is still the same amount of volume of water that has to flow south, so a breach up north would not help us down here.
   

::pondering::

Common sense would seem to tell me that keeping water confined to the channel with levies would force more volume between the levies.  But, maybe it doesn't work that way.

It all has to drain back into the river at some point at any rate though, I guess.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on April 25, 2011, 05:22:00 PM
I believe (I have no hard data) that the developed areas of Mud Island are significantly higher in elevation than Tom Lee Park.  I'm pretty sure of this. 

I tend to agree... Got back in town today after being away all weekend and was able to get a good look at things.  MOST of the houses and apartments will be fine.  A few of the houses on the backside of the island might have issues.  The real problem may end up being access... The southern end of Island Drive in front of Harbor Town and near the roundabout is several feet lower than the rest of the island and may come close to flooding as we get around 44-45' and probably will flood if we go higher.  The back access to the island on the north end of the Wolf River Lagoon is even lower and will probably flood around 41-42'.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: toastido on April 25, 2011, 06:28:00 PM
Unconfirmed... but interesting.

http://www.tweetdeck.com/twitter/ehatt493/~2rvA3

Quote
JimCantore 11 mins
DAM FAILURE! RT @ehatt493 Lake Jericho Dam "in the initial stages of failure" in Henry Cnty, KY The Town of Sulfur is http://deck.ly/~2rvA3
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Dave R on April 25, 2011, 09:47:16 PM
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/belt1_hg.png)

Flood impacts (according to water level in feet):

By the way, saying the water "begins" to flood portions of Old Harding Pike at 25 feet is inaccurate.  I've seen that road under water by the golf center a few times... which would be floods under 20 feet, according to what I'm seeing in the historical record.

Any idea at what level the Coley Davis soccer fields start flooding?  Somewhere between 15 and 17.....
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 06:35:22 AM
Quote
NWS reports initial failure of Lake Jericho dam; flooding imminent in Sulphur


Posted: Apr 26, 2011 6:28 AM CDT
Updated: Apr 26, 2011 6:30 AM CDT
 

SULPHUR, KY (WAVE) - The National Weather Service has reported that the dam at Lake Jericho is in the initial stages of failure.

The NWS reported the dam was in the initial stages of breaching at 6:16 a.m. Tuesday after residents were ordered to move to higher ground about 6:30 p.m. Monday.

If the dam at Lake Jericho fails completely, the small town of Sulphur in Henry County could be flooded.

Anyone who lives in the area should evacuate immediately.

We'll bring you the latest information as soon as it becomes available.

Copyright 2011 WAVE News. All rights reserved.

Sulphur is just NE of Louisville
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 08:12:33 AM
Quote
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
 COUNTIES...BENTON...CHEATHAM...CLAY...DAVIDS ON...DICKSON...
 HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...MACON...MONTGOMERY...R OBERTSON...
 STEWART...SUMNER AND TROUSDALE.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
  MIDDLE TENNESSEE. 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN NORTH
  MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
  LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 24 HAVE
  ALREADY RECEIVED THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
  PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 13
  INCHES POSSIBLE.

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 12:49:27 PM
Per my parents people along the Mississippi are taking this seriously, as they should. People are paying a lot of attention to the long-term flood threat.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: KG4GKE on April 26, 2011, 01:58:38 PM
Per my parents people along the Mississippi are taking this seriously, as they should. People are paying a lot of attention to the long-term flood threat.

very true. We've had a lot of requests for information regarding flood stages for Mud Island, West Memphis, anything west of Millington towards the River, and what time frame those areas (plus lots of others) would see. I'm looking for information on those areas and will pass them along if/when I find them.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 27, 2011, 09:20:53 AM
Memphis in May officials are already looking for alternate locations to hold BBQ fest in case any of you are worried. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 27, 2011, 10:38:01 AM
Memphis in May officials are already looking for alternate locations to hold BBQ fest in case any of you are worried. 

lol... My house maybe washed away but at least I will be able to go get some BBQ!  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 27, 2011, 02:37:38 PM
Memphis in May officials are already looking for alternate locations to hold BBQ fest in case any of you are worried. 

Army Corps of Engr spokesperson was on 98.1FM this morning. He said at 44-45 feet the water level is about a foot from entering Tom Lee Park. But he said that Barge traffic would cause waves that would splash up into the park. At that time (roughly 730am) MIM was looking into a possible move, but nothing was set. Its great to start looking now. They have some time.

He also mentioned in this interview that there was a possibility of an "artificial breach" of the levee at Dyersburg, but that wont really help much down here.

He also confirmed that Mud Island housing is higher elevation than Tom Lee Park. So regardless, this is good news for them.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 27, 2011, 03:15:29 PM
Army Corps of Engr spokesperson was on 98.1FM this morning. He said at 44-45 feet the water level is about a foot from entering Tom Lee Park. But he said that Barge traffic would cause waves that would splash up into the park. At that time (roughly 730am) MIM was looking into a possible move, but nothing was set. Its great to start looking now. They have some time.

He also mentioned in this interview that there was a possibility of an "artificial breach" of the levee at Dyersburg, but that wont really help much down here.

He also confirmed that Mud Island housing is higher elevation than Tom Lee Park. So regardless, this is good news for them.

Heard on the news that developed areas of Mud Island would flood in the mid-50s.  Of course, that would be way worse than even the record.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 27, 2011, 03:52:18 PM
FYI...Tunica just announced most (maybe all) of its casinos will be closing on a staggered basis as flood waters rise at the MS River...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 27, 2011, 03:53:24 PM
Quote
As part of the active planning by The Tunica Convention & Visitors Bureau, in cooperation with local and state emergency management personnel to ensure the safety of our visitors and employees, casino properties will be closing on a staggered schedule based in forecasted water levels affecting access to the properties.

All visitors must be off the property by 2 p.m. on the designated day.  This anticipated closing schedule is based on current forecasts and is subject to change based on weather conditions.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Resorts Casino Tunica

Friday, April 29, 2011

Bally’s Casino Tunica

Sunday, May 1, 2011

Fitz Casino Tunica

Hollywood Casino Tunica

Sam’s Town Casino Tunica

Harrah’s Casino Tunica

Monday, May 2, 2011

GoldStrike Casino Tunica

Horseshoe Casino Tunica

Roadhouse Casino Tunica
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Eric on April 27, 2011, 03:54:14 PM
Wow....you know things are getting bad when the casinos decide to close.   ;D
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 27, 2011, 04:18:44 PM
BTW...did check...appears those casino closures include all 9 major properties in Tunica. I'm sure bugalou will have more detailed info when he can check in...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 27, 2011, 05:03:59 PM
LZK AFD indicates the potential for another slow-moving front:

Quote
CONTINUED DRY FRIDAY WITH SOME MODERATING TEMPS AS A
SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. SATURDAY STARTS DRY THEN SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENTERS FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE MORNING TO
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SAGS INTO AR. GFS AND ECMWF
SIMILAR WITH THEIR TIMING WITH THE FRONT NEAR WESTERN AR AROUND
00Z. THEN DRIFTING THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL AR OVERNIGHT. UPPER FLOW
AGAIN BECOMES SOME WHAT PARALLEL AND THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER
SOUTH AR. THIS WOULD AGAIN HAVE TO BE WATCH.
TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 27, 2011, 07:21:23 PM
The flash flooding in NW MS is extensive. This afternoon there was water for miles on the sides of Highway 61 between Tunica and Clarksdale. My dad emptied our 7 inches rain gauge twice over two days.

Quite a few homes are flooded. There's also pretty extensive wind/tornado damage across the southern half of the county.

Keep in mind this flooding is not related to the river at all. There are no other rivers or creeks in the county besides the Mississippi.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 27, 2011, 07:53:44 PM
My uncle has extensive farmland behind the main levee. They have private levees back there that protect the farmland to some extent. Tomorrow or Friday they will blow the private levees (at major financial loss) to alleviate future pressure on the main levee. He said that they are expecting a crest at 51 ft at the Riverpark.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 27, 2011, 08:04:22 PM
In Piperton, on Hwy 196 just north of Wolf River Bridges, there is a hunting area of wetlands.. water was up on both sides not quite as high as May 2010, but just past there before the smaller creek bridges, water was flowing over the road. FD was out there allowing people to slowly cross in one lane, but I opted to turn around and find another route. I was in my truck and didnt want to be that guy that didnt make it... so I was able to double back and take 205 Collierville Arlington Rd up. It was very high there but still several feet below the road.

There wasnt really another good place to post this but this was flood related.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 27, 2011, 08:35:50 PM
BTW...did check...appears those casino closures include all 9 major properties in Tunica. I'm sure bugalou will have more detailed info when he can check in...

All casinos are closing per the Mississippi Gaming Commission.  Sams Town and Fitz closed Yesterday, Resorts and Ballys today.  Harrah's will likely close Sunday and Horseshoe and Roadhouse will close Monday.  I have no info on Gold Strike or Hollywood, but they will be closed by Monday as that was the deadline.  Harrah's is on a natural lake and the actual casino will likely be fine, but the walkway bridges will likely have to be disengaged and power may have to be disconnected.  At casino center efforts to sandbag and build water walls are already underway.  For those familiar with Casino Center you know the land is built up quite a bit to prevent flooding, but they are still expecting it to be over topped.  To what degree is not yet know.  I will still get some pictures as close to the peak of this as I safely can.

All this adds up to a ton of work for me and I will likely be working 48 hours straight starting Sunday. :(
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 27, 2011, 08:41:19 PM
The flash flooding in NW MS is extensive. This afternoon there was water for miles on the sides of Highway 61 between Tunica and Clarksdale. My dad emptied our 7 inches rain gauge twice over two days.

Quite a few homes are flooded. There's also pretty extensive wind/tornado damage across the southern half of the county.

Keep in mind this flooding is not related to the river at all. There are no other rivers or creeks in the county besides the Mississippi.

To add, Highway 61 north of star landing road in Desoto county was closed today due to water being over the road in the swamp in the area.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 27, 2011, 09:37:07 PM
Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A LEVEE FAILURE IN...
  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF POCAHONTAS...

* UNTIL 115 AM CDT

* AT 911 PM CDT...A LEVEE ON THE BLACK RIVER AT POCAHONTAS FAILED
  CAUSING FLASH FLOODING OF IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AREAS...MAINLY
  ON THE EAST BANK OF THE RIVER.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE COLLEGE CITY...O`KEAN...POCAHONTAS AND
  PORTIA

KAIT is reporting significant and rapid flash flooding taking place in Pocahontas...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 28, 2011, 12:53:37 AM
KAIT is reporting significant and rapid flash flooding taking place in Pocahontas...

A levee failure...there's already enough salt in the wound today
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 28, 2011, 12:19:49 PM
A levee failure...there's already enough salt in the wound today

I believe this levee was along the Black River.. which doesnt directly feed back into the MS until south of Memphis, right?

Though I do have a friend who has water in her apt "up to the toilet seat" in Jonesboro AR.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on April 28, 2011, 12:45:46 PM
Rainfall forcast for the weekend... This will only add to the problems.

(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/p120i12.gif)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 28, 2011, 01:31:26 PM
I believe this levee was along the Black River.. which doesnt directly feed back into the MS until south of Memphis, right?

That appears to be the case.  Looking at the map, the Black flows into the St. Francis... which empties into the Mississippi south of Memphis.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 28, 2011, 01:32:41 PM
Rainfall forcast for the weekend... This will only add to the problems.

(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/p120i12.gif)

:| That map better be wrong.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 28, 2011, 01:41:53 PM
according to a combo of MEG and LZK AFD, saturday is a rain and tstorm day from sat night til monday morning... then a slow moving front comes through by end of next week. but not stationary as this last one was... but  I suspect it would have a severe potential. Im curious to see the long range models on that one. Of course it would be in a new thread.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 28, 2011, 03:12:47 PM
according to a combo of MEG and LZK AFD, saturday is a rain and tstorm day from sat night til monday morning... then a slow moving front comes through by end of next week. but not stationary as this last one was... but  I suspect it would have a severe potential. Im curious to see the long range models on that one. Of course it would be in a new thread.

Looks a little more progressive so far which should mean that the severe/flooding setup is not as bad as the last go around...but still not good.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 28, 2011, 03:27:41 PM
Looks a little more progressive so far which should mean that the severe/flooding setup is not as bad as the last go around...but still not good.

At least it doesn't look like it will be too severe for this area.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 28, 2011, 04:57:21 PM
Pic from Caruthersville Mo. Supposed to rise 4.9 more feet. This will be close  ::fingerscrossed::

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 05:24:41 PM
Wolf River at Germantown now expected to crest at 26.5 feet..already approaching 26 feet. Getting very close to evacuation levels for portions of Germantown and Collierville.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 05:44:46 PM
Not Good News...as Shelby County State of Emergency is declared...

Quote
By as early as Sunday, floodwater from the rising Mississippi River will be creeping across more than 2,200 Shelby County properties, threatening hundreds of homes and businesses and even some schools, authorities said today.

At the 41-foot stage on the Memphis gauge, which is expected over the weekend, the Mississippi’s overflow will affect 383 single-family homes, more than 500 commercial and industrial properties, 350 apartment units and eight schools, according to a briefing at the Shelby County emergency operations center.

The affected properties, although not specifically identified, lie mostly along the Wolf River downstream from Raleigh, on the Loosahatchie River across North Shelby County and near Nonconnah Creek west of Perkins. They have a total assessed value of $360.7 million.

The effects will only increase next week as the river rises beyond the 41-foot level toward a forecast crest of 45 feet on May 10.

Authorities, however, haven’t made specific projections for that level yet. Instead, they are working up estimates at two-foot intervals, with the effects from a 43-foot stage to be assessed Friday.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 05:56:45 PM
You can see the Wolf River at Hollywood St. already beginning to see the effects of backwater flow from the MS...
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/hlyt1_hg.png)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 28, 2011, 05:57:48 PM
Wolf River at Germantown now expected to crest at 26.5 feet..already approaching 26 feet. Getting very close to evacuation levels for portions of Germantown and Collierville.

I was just reading the warning.  At 27 feet, roads in eastern Shelby County start flooding.  I'm guessing that Germantown Parkway and Hwy 385 should still be OK, however.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 06:01:02 PM
ABC24 is showing an image from Shelby County EMA showing the areal extent of flooding at 41ft...am going to search around to find...looks highly detailed...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 28, 2011, 06:06:10 PM
Wolf River at Germantown now expected to crest at 26.5 feet..already approaching 26 feet. Getting very close to evacuation levels for portions of Germantown and Collierville.

I had not been out since this morning...the water level rise has been astounding since taking the same path early this morning. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 28, 2011, 06:07:56 PM
You can see the Wolf River at Hollywood St. already beginning to see the effects of backwater flow from the MS...
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/hlyt1_hg.png)

That is really not good.  That means that the Wolf will not be able to drain the additional rainwater still coming into the river through its basin.  I'm starting to wonder if we're not looking at a significant event here if we get some of the model projections for rainfall this weekend.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 28, 2011, 06:11:12 PM
I was just reading the warning.  At 27 feet, roads in eastern Shelby County start flooding.  I'm guessing that Germantown Parkway and Hwy 385 should still be OK, however.

Water appeared to be close to Farm Road coming across Shelby Farms a few minutes ago.  I checked the FEMA flood maps on Monday and my house is not in the 100 year flood plain but I'm not sure what kind of reading they are considering to be a 100 year reading.  I mean, I want to say that means we're safe but I know that it's pretty critical to know how they drew those lines. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 28, 2011, 06:13:28 PM
ABC24 is showing an image from Shelby County EMA showing the areal extent of flooding at 41ft...am going to search around to find...looks highly detailed...

I heard that Shelby Co. EMA was refusing to release the map projections until they finalize their evacuation plans.  I do not agree with the decision not to release. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 06:15:40 PM
I heard that Shelby Co. EMA was refusing to release the map projections until they finalize their evacuation plans.  I do not agree with the decision not to release. 

ABC24 said that information is being released Tomorrow (specific addresses for flooding) which is when evacuations will begin. That should still allow for plenty of time for people to get out...41 feet is not expected until Sunday.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 28, 2011, 06:22:12 PM
What is the significance of 41 ft? Isn't the forecast crest 45?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 06:23:09 PM
What is the significance of 41 ft? Isn't the forecast crest 45?

That's the first stage of significant flooding for Shelby Co. They are working on 43 and 45 ft maps that will be released once completed...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Drew_ on April 28, 2011, 06:23:30 PM
All this adds up to a ton of work for me and I will likely be working 48 hours straight starting Sunday. :(

48 hours? is that even legal for them to ask you to do that?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 28, 2011, 06:24:25 PM
ABC24 said that information is being released Tomorrow (specific addresses for flooding) which is when evacuations will begin. That should still allow for plenty of time for people to get out...41 feet is not expected until Sunday.

I understand that but I guess I don't understand why they would bother withholding it.  It would seem to me that giving people an extra day for preparations would be a good thing.  If they release tomorrow, then a lot of people may not find out in time to make arrangements for doing personally important things like finding a place for their pets, gathering important documents stored in their homes.  Every hour you have between knowing and evacuation zero hour is pretty valuable.  I'll be honest.  I'd be upset if they withheld that info from me for a day.  
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 28, 2011, 06:46:14 PM
Not Good News...as Shelby County State of Emergency is declared...


Big news with this next week. My goodness...45 feet will begin to displace folks next week. While downtown sits on high ground, those tributaries lie way to low to combat this.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 06:51:02 PM
I understand that but I guess I don't understand why they would bother withholding it.  It would seem to me that giving people an extra day for preparations would be a good thing.  If they release tomorrow, then a lot of people may not find out in time to make arrangements for doing personally important things like finding a place for their pets, gathering important documents stored in their homes.  Every hour you have between knowing and evacuation zero hour is pretty valuable.  I'll be honest.  I'd be upset if they withheld that info from me for a day.  

I don't think its anything malicous. They just want to get it right. If they have this down to specific addressees and properties that will be inundated and need to evacuate...they're working with very detailed data.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 28, 2011, 06:53:55 PM
48 hours? is that even legal for them to ask you to do that?

Comes with the territory working in IT.  I enjoy my job and this is a break from the daily grind, though it is a ton of work.  The fact that I have vacation later next week helps too :).
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 07:01:38 PM
Haven't confirmed this but am hearing the Wolf is beginning to flow into the CBHS Football field...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 28, 2011, 07:03:19 PM
Haven't confirmed this but am hearing the Wolf is beginning to flow into the CBHS Football field...
This must mean that Wolf may crest above 26.5 I would think.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 07:04:11 PM
This must mean that Wolf may crest above 26.5 I would think.

Currently 26.05 right now...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 28, 2011, 07:07:33 PM
Haven't confirmed this but am hearing the Wolf is beginning to flow into the CBHS Football field...

My manager at work told me that his wife saw flooding at Baptist Memorial East, and said that the wolf river is coming up almost to the sidewalk at Humphreys, if I'm understanding him correctly.  I wonder if it's worth taking a look.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 07:10:23 PM
I think we can confirm this
(http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg620/scaled.php?tn=0&server=620&filename=a0lef.jpg&xsize=640&ysize=640)

Wow...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 28, 2011, 07:12:55 PM
I have been working in Tunica for over 10 years and have seen the river go up and down numerous times.   I have never ever saw it rise as dramatically and as fast as it has in the past 2 days.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 28, 2011, 07:15:21 PM
I think we can confirm this
(http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg620/scaled.php?tn=0&server=620&filename=a0lef.jpg&xsize=640&ysize=640)

Wow...

I think it flooded in the 2001 flood, but just wow. Looks like crest should take place over the next 12 hours.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 28, 2011, 07:39:21 PM
I think we can confirm this
(http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg620/scaled.php?tn=0&server=620&filename=a0lef.jpg&xsize=640&ysize=640)

Wow...

And I think, by extension, that confirms what my manager was saying.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 28, 2011, 07:53:52 PM
We're planning to drive to Oxford, MS, driving through the outskirts of Memphis taking I-240 to 385 to Hacks Cross to the HWY that goes to Holly Springs... tomorrow evening.

Should we expect any problems on this route?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 28, 2011, 07:56:52 PM
We're planning to drive to Oxford, MS, driving through the outskirts of Memphis taking I-240 to 385 to Hacks Cross to the HWY that goes to Holly Springs... tomorrow evening.

Should we expect any problems on this route?
wow youre coming all the way into 240??? Want a faster way or are you meaning to go through the city?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 07:58:30 PM
Just went down to CBHS fields...definitely underwater...already a few feet higher than the picture above. Also a few feet of water on Walnut Bend Rd just East of Germantown Pkway...starting go get VERY close to the homes and businesses there...over by the Lowe's. Surprised they have not closed Walnut Bend off yet. Water is no more than 5 feet below the Germantown Pkway Bridge at the city limit. Shelby Farms is basically a Lake...especially the Germantown Pkway end. LOTS of sightseers out in this area. Definitely haven't seen anything like this in this area...not since this area was developed. Much worse than the 2001 flooding.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 28, 2011, 08:02:03 PM
Just went down to CBHS fields...definitely underwater...already a few feet higher than the picture above. Also a few feet of water on Walnut Bend Rd just East of Germantown Pkway...starting go get VERY close to the homes and businesses there...over by the Lowe's. Surprised they have not closed Walnut Bend off yet. Water is no more than 5 feet below the Germantown Pkway Bridge at the city limit. Shelby Farms is basically a Lake...especially the Germantown Pkway end. LOTS of sightseers out in this area. Definitely haven't seen anything like this in this area...not since this area was developed. Much worse than the 2001 flooding.

I would like to take a look myself.

EDIT: We often use Walnut Bend as a back route to avoid Germantown Parkway, so this'll really clog up traffic.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 28, 2011, 08:06:56 PM
I don't think its anything malicous. They just want to get it right. If they have this down to specific addressees and properties that will be inundated and need to evacuate...they're working with very detailed data.

I understand that.  Kevin, do you know how the current projections compare to the 100 year flood plain maps drawn by FEMA?  We're talking substantially lower, right?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 28, 2011, 08:08:06 PM
wow youre coming all the way into 240??? Want a faster way or are you meaning to go through the city?

This is the route my wife taught me to go.  ;)

As a crow flies, it's definitely not the shortest route.  But I think she likes this way because you can drive faster than some of the slower speed limits through the little towns, etc.

If you can recommend a better way, I'd be willing to hear it. :)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 28, 2011, 08:11:33 PM
I have been working in Tunica for over 10 years and have seen the river go up and down numerous times.   I have never ever saw it rise as dramatically and as fast as it has in the past 2 days.

My uncle broke his levees this afternoon.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 08:11:41 PM
They re-raised the crest to 27ft now...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 28, 2011, 08:13:19 PM
This is the route my wife taught me to go.  ;)

As a crow flies, it's definitely not the shortest route.  But I think she likes this way because you can drive faster than some of the slower speed limits through the little towns, etc.

If you can recommend a better way, I'd be willing to hear it. :)

Nix that...196 is closed as well as 205 due to Wolf River flooding. Oh well...you could always get off at Jackson and take Hwy18 south past Bolivar where it turns into Hwy 7 to Holly Springs and Oxford. May save you mileage and a few minutes.

for future reference...

- I-40 to Arlington and take exit 24, Hwy 385 (will be complete to Collierville and beyond next year)
- 385 ends at Macon Rd where you will exit and take a left
-  A mile down the road, take a right on Hwy 196 and follow it until it dead ends into Hwy 72 in Piperton (just to the east of C'ville)
- Take a left (east) on Hwy 72 for a mile to Hwy 311 and take a right. You are only about 10 miles from Holly Springs where you can catch Hwy 7

Its really not as complicated as it sounds   ;D and it sure beats the heck out of freakin' 240, esp with construction near Walnut Grove and Poplar...its being widened and believe you me...major delays in the near future.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 28, 2011, 08:15:08 PM
I think we can confirm this
(http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg620/scaled.php?tn=0&server=620&filename=a0lef.jpg&xsize=640&ysize=640)

Wow...

Wouldn't this be well above I-240 in elevation?  It sits by an walnut grove overpass over I-240...maybe I'm getting this wrong.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 28, 2011, 08:19:36 PM
They re-raised the crest to 27ft now...

Yup...thats what I thought. Homes are about to be in jeopardy if there are any more rises. Caution in Germantown /C'ville.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 28, 2011, 08:21:38 PM
Thanks for the tips Curt!

I had heard that 385 at Arlington will be the way to go in the future.  Just isn't completed yet.  Good to know that's a year away.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 09:00:20 PM
Being told those businesses on Walnut Bend are now evacuating...water up to the doors on many of them...wasn't near that high when I was there 90 minutes ago...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 28, 2011, 09:01:17 PM
For the Wolf River @ Germantown

AT 26.0 FEET...HUMPHREYS BOULEVARD AT WALNUT GROVE ROAD INTERSECTION
  IS FLOODED. WEST BOUND LANE OF HUMPHREYS BOULEVARD WEST OF GERMANTOWN
  PARKWAY IS FLOODING. AGRICENTER FARM ROAD IS FLOODED. RV PARK AT
  AGRICENTER IS FLOODING.



AT 27.0 FEET...HIGHWAYS 205, 196 AND 194 ARE FLOODED AND
  IMPASSABLE. SEVERAL HOMES ARE FLOODED. FLETCHER CREEK IS BACKING
  UP. EVACUATIONS ARE NECESSARY NEAR THE RIVER.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 28, 2011, 09:25:10 PM
Hoping for the best for all who are potentially affected by floods in the Memphis area.  We can relate here in Nashville...

The Harpeth River (the stream that got me last year) crested at 15.8 feet in Bellevue this morning and is now falling.  Fortunately, we did not receive the copious amounts of rain that would have caused any significant problems.

By contrast, the river crested at 33 feet on May 3rd last year.  The effects of that were devastating on many businesses and homes (including my own).
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 28, 2011, 09:41:13 PM
Hoping for the best for all who are potentially affected by floods in the Memphis area.  We can relate here in Nashville...

The Harpeth River (the stream that got me last year) crested at 15.8 feet in Bellevue this morning and is now falling.  Fortunately, we did not receive the copious amounts of rain that would have caused any significant problems.

By contrast, the river crested at 33 feet on May 3rd last year.  The effects of that were devastating on many businesses and homes (including my own).

My best friend here at school went home last year to a home gutted by the Little Harpeth. She mentioned earlier today how the timing of this flood and the last flood are so similar.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 28, 2011, 09:48:24 PM
Being told those businesses on Walnut Bend are now evacuating...water up to the doors on many of them...wasn't near that high when I was there 90 minutes ago...

I can confirm. I was told by a friend that police were barricading off Walnut Bend at 845p as she drove by the area.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 28, 2011, 09:54:29 PM
Whats interesting about river flooding is the role that development and clear cutting play. We know at what point a river will start flooding, but subtle changes in landscape can have drastically different effects at a certain stage. I cant think of any new development along the Wolf that would make a huge change now from recent years. However, one difference today may be the rapidly rising MS River. These tributaries just cant empty as fast.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2011, 10:00:12 PM
I can confirm. I was told by a friend that police were barricading off Walnut Bend at 845p as she drove by the area.

Glad they did that. It was already getting a little too high to cross when I did it at 7:45. What's amazing was that it had risen over the road a good foot or two in the half hour from when I first drove through there...when I came through it wasn't more than maybe 6-10" on it...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 28, 2011, 10:58:32 PM
I can confirm. I was told by a friend that police were barricading off Walnut Bend at 845p as she drove by the area.

I can also confirm.  I attempted to take Walnut Bend after being around the Wolf River, and it's blocked off by police.  Right where it dips before climbing the hill is where the flooding is.

Also, Baptist East Memorial and Humphreys are starting to have issues.  Parts of the parking lot, including where the traffic signal is in the parking lot, are flooded.  As my manager had said, it appears the water is backing up out of the sewage system.  Humphreys is not flooded, but near Walnut Grove on the Wolf River side, but the water is getting very close to the road--at some points the water is getting within a foot of the road.  I also see some water starting to come out of the sewage system on the side of Humphreys, but all lanes still appear passable.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 28, 2011, 11:02:25 PM
Do any of the crest forecasts take completely into account the rain forecast this weekend into Monday?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 28, 2011, 11:06:17 PM
Wolf seems to be slightly above the newest revised forecast at this time at 26.6 feet:

(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/gert1_hg.png)

I hope all the homes and businesses that expect to get flooded @ 27 feet have evacuated.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 28, 2011, 11:14:22 PM
Wolf seems to be slightly above the newest revised forecast at this time at 26.6 feet:

(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/gert1_hg.png)

I hope all the homes and businesses that expect to get flooded @ 27 feet have evacuated.

OK, the crest is tomorrow.  That's good.

If the next system takes its time getting here, then we could avoid serious problems.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 28, 2011, 11:25:11 PM
Do any of the crest forecasts take completely into account the rain forecast this weekend into Monday?

MEG AFD update @ 10:36 pm...

Quote
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY
SERVE TO WORSEN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. MORE
DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES...BUT
SOMETHING TO REMAIN UPDATED ON OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 29, 2011, 12:25:45 AM
Do any of the crest forecasts take completely into account the rain forecast this weekend into Monday?

I wanna say that Kevin, back before the outbreak, said that they only look 24 hours ahead, and they dont account for local rainfall totals. I could be wrong, Ive been wrong before.  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 29, 2011, 12:33:08 AM
Tonights GFS is stalling the front over the MEG area...with about 3.5-4 inches of rain Sat and Sun at KMEM. Not good. Got to think that will have some ramification on the crest.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 29, 2011, 01:58:13 AM
I wanna say that Kevin, back before the outbreak, said that they only look 24 hours ahead, and they dont account for local rainfall totals. I could be wrong, Ive been wrong before.  ::bagoverhead::

I'm pretty sure that 24 hours is correct. That's what I've read various places (including the NWS) several times. Kevin said that for the this event (the heavy rain earlier in the week) that they were looking up to 48 hours ahead. I doubt they they are still doing that.

I have no idea on how rainfall of any magnitude will affect the future crest. IDK how long those rains take to runoff into the river, etc.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 29, 2011, 01:59:32 AM
while searching for road closure lists, i found an article on wmc that said the MS river is rising faster than expected. There was no other information. it was vague and only indicated that. no further details.

I didnt watch the video that accompanied the story. I assumed the text was the same thing.
http://www.wmctv.com/story/14527520/mississippi-river-rising-faster-than-expected-in-memphis (http://www.wmctv.com/story/14527520/mississippi-river-rising-faster-than-expected-in-memphis)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 29, 2011, 02:08:51 AM
while searching for road closure lists, i found an article on wmc that said the MS river is rising faster than expected. There was no other information. it was vague and only indicated that. no further details.

I didnt watch the video that accompanied the story. I assumed the text was the same thing.
http://www.wmctv.com/story/14527520/mississippi-river-rising-faster-than-expected-in-memphis (http://www.wmctv.com/story/14527520/mississippi-river-rising-faster-than-expected-in-memphis)

That's from Wednesday.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 29, 2011, 02:12:10 AM
The Wolf River at Germantown is about to crest in the next few hours.  It is then forecast to begin a steady decline and exit flood stage by Sunday.  We'll see what happens with new rainfall, however.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 29, 2011, 02:20:10 AM
The Wolf River at Germantown is about to crest in the next few hours.  It is then forecast to begin a steady decline and exit flood stage by Sunday.  We'll see what happens with new rainfall, however.

It will also eventually start to backup...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: elicoleman on April 29, 2011, 02:37:01 AM
Have a friend who lives right off Walnut Bend who still can't back into her cove because of the flooding. Just drove by there a few minutes ago, definitely see what she means. I think her property is okay, just that a portion of the cove is just too deep to drive in.

Also, was just at Kroger getting groceries and overheard an officer saying that they were going to completely close off Humphries between Germantown Rd and Kirby. Wouldn't be surprised if they did the same thing north bound Humphries between Shady Grove and Walnut Grove .

While at work tonight, I was taking a delivery up Collierville-Arlington Rd to Raleigh-LaGrange near Spring Creek Ranch and they had blocked off to 1 lane and had planned to completely shut it down by sunset.

One positive is that it looks like they took dense fog out of the forecast from 4a-10a. Thank God, I can't imagine if the fog had gotten so dense that you couldn't see the flooded roadways until it was too late. That would be horrible.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 29, 2011, 02:47:12 AM


While at work tonight, I was taking a delivery up Collierville-Arlington Rd to Raleigh-LaGrange near Spring Creek Ranch and they had blocked off to 1 lane and had planned to completely shut it down by sunset.
 

What are the specifics on the lane closure? its on Coll-Arl Rd? Is that north or south of ral-lagrange?  Also, Ral-lagrange is split right there.. the part that come from hwy 196 is south of the leg that goes to Houston Levee. This would be good to know in case I attempt to come in via Ral-Lagrange from Fayette County. (assuming Ral-Lagrange is passable on that leg).
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: elicoleman on April 29, 2011, 02:58:00 AM
What are the specifics on the lane closure? its on Coll-Arl Rd? Is that north or south of ral-lagrange?  Also, Ral-lagrange is split right there.. the part that come from hwy 196 is south of the leg that goes to Houston Levee. This would be good to know in case I attempt to come in via Ral-Lagrange from Fayette County. (assuming Ral-Lagrange is passable on that leg).

The area I'm talking about is Collierville-Arlington Rd just north of Shelton Rd (which is South of Ral-La). Basically at sunset, they weren't going to let anyone go north past Shelton Rd or south of Ral-La.

When I went up there around 6:30 this evening, water was already on the northbound lane and looked to be rising still. They basically were stopping traffic and letting a few cars go at a time.

I don't believe any part of Raleigh-LaGrange will be shutdown but don't quote me on that.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 07:17:39 AM
The Wolf River at Germantown is about to crest in the next few hours.  It is then forecast to begin a steady decline and exit flood stage by Sunday.  We'll see what happens with new rainfall, however.
It will also eventually start to backup...

Maybe I'm not understanding this correctly, but it's hard for the Wolf River water level to drop below the Mississippi River water level, right?  I realize that there are some elevation changes, but, it would seem to me, that the Mississippi River being so near a record (@ 45 feet) would have mean major problems for the Wolf and Loosahatchie.


However, it quickly became apparent to me that we don't have any historical information as the Wolf River in Germantown, for instance, the earliest reading I can find is in the early 70s and that's not going to help me find out what the effects are for the Wolf if the big river goes to near the record stage it had in the 1920s.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 07:19:08 AM
BTW, the Wolf is exactly on the forecast line this morning....26.81 feet
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 08:26:36 AM
BTW, the Wolf is exactly on the forecast line this morning....26.81 feet

Wolf has crested at his level and is now beginning to slowly fall....
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 29, 2011, 08:35:17 AM
Wolf has crested at his level and is now beginning to slowly fall....

Great news!  Thanks.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 08:56:52 AM
Wolf has crested at his level and is now beginning to slowly fall....

So, does that mean that there will be no more problems out of the Wolf or would there be another crest as the Mississippi rises (not taking into account any future heavy rain events)?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 08:58:58 AM
So, does that mean that there will be no more problems out of the Wolf or would there be another crest as the Mississippi rises (not taking into account any future heavy rain events)?

There will be backwater flooding on the Wolf but I don't know if that will extend as far East as the Germantown/Collierville areas. That may be more of an issue for western parts of it that run towards Raleigh and Bartlett.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 09:00:31 AM
Also, the morning rush from the east is basically an unworkable situation.  Radio reports were that, at least twice, people have removed the barricades in order to drive through flooded roadways to get where they were going.  

Traffic is so bad right now in the eastern suburbs that I hope noone truly needs emergency services.  All of the alternate routes are severely clogged up.  It took me about 1h10m to get from Cordova to the Poplar/240 area.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 09:01:58 AM
There will be backwater flooding on the Wolf but I don't know if that will extend as far East as the Germantown/Collierville areas. That may be more of an issue for western parts of it that run towards Raleigh and Bartlett.

I've been wondering the same...if it would back up and, if so, how far and how much.  IDK, I can't find any detailed projections.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 29, 2011, 09:09:17 AM
Also, the morning rush from the east is basically an unworkable situation.  Radio reports were that, at least twice, people have removed the barricades in order to drive through flooded roadways to get where they were going.  

Traffic is so bad right now in the eastern suburbs that I hope noone truly needs emergency services.  All of the alternate routes are severely clogged up.  It took me about 1h10m to get from Cordova to the Poplar/240 area.

Thanks for the report.  This reinforces my thought that we don't need to venture into that area this evening on the way to north MS...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 09:53:03 AM
Looks like the Wolf isn't as much falling as its holding stable for now. Stages are fluctuating between 26.7 and 26.9 ft for the last two hours. Still should see a steady fall shortly...but it will be slow at first.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 29, 2011, 10:07:47 AM
Looks like the Wolf isn't as much falling as its holding stable for now. Stages are fluctuating between 26.7 and 26.9 ft for the last two hours. Still should see a steady fall shortly...but it will be slow at first.

I wonder what effect 4 inches of rain this weekend combined with water backing up out of the Mississippi River would have on the stages.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 10:26:34 AM
I wonder what effect 4 inches of rain this weekend combined with water backing up out of the Mississippi River would have on the stages.

Still TBD. If forecasts holds the River will be back well below flood stage by that point...at least at the Germantown Gauge.

Looks like the official crest will be 26.91 feet. 3rd Highest Crest in history...about one foot below the 27.98 record in 1984 and 1995.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 29, 2011, 10:28:13 AM
The Loosahatchie is on a rapid decline. Didnt come close to last year's crest in Arlington.

I dont think Gtown and places east will have to worry about "backup" flooding. Raleigh westward is a totally different story. The Loosahatchie will most likely cause major problems in Millington/Lucy/Woodstock areas as well.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 10:42:01 AM
The Loosahatchie is on a rapid decline. Didnt come close to last year's crest in Arlington.

I dont think Gtown and places east will have to worry about "backup" flooding. Raleigh westward is a totally different story. The Loosahatchie will most likely cause major problems in Millington/Lucy/Woodstock areas as well.

It seems like the key to the backup flooding issue would be to compare the water level of the Mississippi in terms of elevation to areas in eastern Shelby County.  If we took the elevation of the actual water surface at flood stage and compared it to topographical maps, we might get a good idea. 

My initial conjecture would be that you're correct and that there are few, if any, areas of Germantown and Collierville that are close in elevation to the water surface elevation on the Mississippi. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 10:50:54 AM
Right here, I have a decent reference point for making some educated guesses on backwater flooding.  This page says that the water surface elevation of the MS River was 224.53 feet ASL during the March 1997 river flood:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=msriverflooding (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=msriverflooding)

The crest per this page was 40.76 feet on the Memphis gauge:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=meg&gage=memt1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1%22 (http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=meg&gage=memt1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1%22)

Now, if we go with the 45 foot forecast, we can add 4.24 feet to the 224.53 ft./ASL to get 228.77 feet ASL as the areas that are vulnerable to flooding in the Wolf and Loosahatchie basins in Memphis.

Is my reasoning correct?

If so, it's just a matter of getting a handle on elevations based on what we know.  Here's the list of highest historical crests for the MS River @ Memphis.  

Historical Crests
(1) 48.70 ft on 02/10/1937
(2) 45.80 ft on 04/23/1927
(3) 40.76 ft on 03/14/1997
(4) 40.50 ft on 05/08/1973
(5) 40.50 ft on 02/22/1950
(6) 40.30 ft on 03/07/1975
(7) 40.20 ft on 05/22/1961
(8) 39.20 ft on 04/06/1945
(9) 39.20 ft on 05/15/1983
(10) 39.10 ft on 06/01/1995

Also, it could be that some areas are below that yet protected due to higher land that separates them from the MS and its tributaries.  That's another thing to check before assessing whether an area will get flooded and I am willing to be that it's a significant matter in some places in Shelby County.

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 29, 2011, 10:59:31 AM
Still TBD. If forecasts holds the River will be back well below flood stage by that point...at least at the Germantown Gauge.

Looks like the official crest will be 26.91 feet. 3rd Highest Crest in history...about one foot below the 27.98 record in 1984 and 1995.

My understanding is that the rain starts Saturday night, but the forecast is dropping below flood state on Sunday, so it would be very close, actually.  This is at Germantown.



Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 29, 2011, 11:29:50 AM
Aside from tributary flooding, which could be major, this side of the river has a huge advantage from catastrophic flooding...elevation. Compared to the alluvial plain in east Arkansas , this side of the river is at least 100 feet higher in places. The elevation in Shelby Co begins a farily rapid ascent the further east one goes. Elevation of downtown is about 200-250ft vs 450 in eastern Shelby and up to almost 700ft at the highest point in eastern Fayette Co. The Missisippi and Arkansas delta areas basically take the brunt for downtown and most of the city outisde the wolf and loosahatchie tributaries. Again, those low lying areas are very vulnerable and major flooding is likely. Sadly, many of these areas are low income areas.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 12:11:57 PM
Aside from tributary flooding, which could be major, this side of the river has a huge advantage from catastrophic flooding...elevation. Compared to the alluvial plain in east Arkansas , this side of the river is at least 100 feet higher in places. The elevation in Shelby Co begins a farily rapid ascent the further east one goes. Elevation of downtown is about 200-250ft vs 450 in eastern Shelby and up to almost 700ft at the highest point in eastern Fayette Co. The Missisippi and Arkansas delta areas basically take the brunt for downtown and most of the city outisde the wolf and loosahatchie tributaries. Again, those low lying areas are very vulnerable and major flooding is likely. Sadly, many of these areas are low income areas.

Even looking at the tributaries themselves, from an elevation perspective, they seem to be well above even the backwater flooding level of 238.77 ASL that would occur in an absolutely epic 55 foot crest on the Miss. River.

It appears that the risk from tributary flooding will mostly occur if we get more heavy rain events in which the tributaries themselves will be much slower in draining than they typically are.  Another rain event with 5-10" or so over 3-4 days would be most unwelcome in the eastern suburbs.  Other than the limitations imposed on the river flows themselves, however, the cresting of the Mississippi doesn't seem like it should have an effect in, say, Germantown by itself.  

This seems to indicate to me that the Wolf has made its highest crest so long as there is no more rain on the way.  Of course, there is more rain potential and that could complicate things because even a little bit of water in your home/business can do quite a bit of damage.

EDIT:  I might have babbled a bit, but I was trying to say that the risk for Germantown is increased, but the Mississippi alone is not going to back up and push enough water in to flood Germantown.  It doesn't appear to be even remotely close to what is possible.  However, the increased risk is due to the lack of drainage of the basin in any future heavy rain events.  Therefore, if we were to see an exact repeat of this week during the next week, the flooding situation in Germantown would be far worse this week because the drainage rate is slower (not to mention saturated soils and otherwise).  In fact, any heavy rain event in the short term will probably get elevated flood watch status from what I can tell. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 29, 2011, 12:12:51 PM
12z GFS is not encouraging....front stalls out even longer over the mid south with hvy rain possibilities through Tuesday.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 29, 2011, 12:15:33 PM
Even looking at the tributaries themselves, from an elevation perspective, they seem to be well above even the backwater flooding level of 238.77 ASL that would occur in an absolutely epic 55 foot crest on the Miss. River.

It appears that the risk from tributary flooding will mostly occur if we get more heavy rain events in which the tributaries themselves will be much slower in draining than they typically are.  Another rain event with 5-10" or so over 3-4 days would be most unwelcome in the eastern suburbs.  Other than the limitations imposed on the river flows themselves, however, the cresting of the Mississippi doesn't seem like it should have an effect in, say, Germantown by itself. 

This seems to indicate to me that the Wolf has made its highest crest so long as there is no more rain on the way.  Of course, there is more rain potential and that could complicate things because even a little bit of water in your home/business can do quite a bit of damage.

This.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 12:24:52 PM
12z GFS is not encouraging....front stalls out even longer over the mid south with hvy rain possibilities through Tuesday.

Hmmm...I totaled the buffkit for the 0z run and it gave Memphis 3.31" but it was not all at once and was spread out over 2.5 to 3 days which is a lot better than getting 3" in a few hours for the eastern suburbs.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 12:48:39 PM
This is probably only temporary...but MS River has stalled at Memphis and starting to get below forecast now...
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/memt1_hg.png)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 29, 2011, 12:54:44 PM
Good news.  The HPC has lowered its 5-day QPF forecast for the Mid-South.  At day 5, the HPC forecast shows high pressure dominating the region.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 01:36:47 PM
MS River at Memphis still holding at 38.44 feet Its been holding there for 5 hours straight...was forecast to be at 39.0 feet right now. Again...don't know if this is temporary or would even have any effect on eventual levels.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 29, 2011, 01:37:41 PM
Good news.  The HPC has lowered its 5-day QPF forecast for the Mid-South.  At day 5, the HPC forecast shows high pressure dominating the region.

I dont think I would classify this as good news from the HPC:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

This is not what one wants to see in the MS/OH River basins whiile a major flood is taking place.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 29, 2011, 01:50:05 PM
I dont think I would classify this as good news from the HPC:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

This is not what one wants to see in the MS/OH River basins whiile a major flood is taking place.

My apologies.  I thought it had updated.  I had been looking at Days 4-5.  ::doh::

The forecasts have actually been increasing QPF over time, then.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 29, 2011, 02:01:04 PM
My apologies.  I thought it had updated.  I had been looking at Days 4-5.  ::doh::

The forecasts have actually been increasing QPF over time, then.

No sweat! Easy to do. GFS actually puts about 2.5 inches of rain at KMEM but more in every direction around. I think the threat for a 3-4 inch rainfall is likely with more in eastern AR, MO Bootheel, NW TN.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 02:23:15 PM
This is probably only temporary...but MS River has stalled at Memphis and starting to get below forecast now...
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/memt1_hg.png)


It's hard to tell for sure but there doesn't seem to be much variance from forecast levels if you look through the all the hydrographs for the upstream gauges.  
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 02:31:39 PM
MS River at Memphis still holding at 38.44 feet Its been holding there for 5 hours straight...was forecast to be at 39.0 feet right now. Again...don't know if this is temporary or would even have any effect on eventual levels.

Hard to say for sure...it could be a variance caused by it being less than forecast but it could also be any of several things like short-term bottlenecks or maybe they took out a levy somewhere to relieve some pressure.  Or...perhaps there's a slight delay in rises as a whole new geographical area gets inudated as a natural barrier is being overtopped or breach.  We both know it can't stay at 38.44 for very long whether the forecast is going to verify or not.

I must say, I find this hydrology subject very interesting and I'm somewhat surprised by it. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 02:40:10 PM
No sweat! Easy to do. GFS actually puts about 2.5 inches of rain at KMEM but more in every direction around. I think the threat for a 3-4 inch rainfall is likely with more in eastern AR, MO Bootheel, NW TN.

Thanks for telling me that.  I was actually feeling better after looking at the 12z Buffkit only.  That's what I get for just looking at verbatim output.  Now, you're ruined my good vibes.   :D
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 29, 2011, 03:05:31 PM
This is probably only temporary...but MS River has stalled at Memphis and starting to get below forecast now...
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/memt1_hg.png)


I think the lower river maybe just filling in a bit more than expected.  The gauge at the Tunica river park has actually spiked up at a higher rate thus far today:
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/trpm6_hg.png)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 29, 2011, 03:15:51 PM
Idk about Memphis being lower but my uncle says it's higher in Tunica than they expected.

He is in constant contact with the levee board.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 03:20:01 PM
I'm starting to wonder if something is wrong with the gauge...its been stuck at 38.44' feet since this morning...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 29, 2011, 03:22:44 PM
I'm starting to wonder if something is wrong with the gauge...its been stuck at 38.44' feet since this morning...

It's a little hard to believe that the level would stay so precisely unchanged for so long if the gauge was really working.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 29, 2011, 03:26:23 PM
Idk about Memphis being lower but my uncle says it's higher in Tunica than they expected.

He is in constant contact with the levee board.

I am at work and have been watching it and it is definitely raising higher than expected here.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 03:27:59 PM
It's a little hard to believe that the level would stay so precisely unchanged for so long if the gauge was really working.

Its hard to be 100% sure but my guess is its malfunctioned now. Every other gauge and report indicates its still rising. Hopefully if that's the case it can be fixed pretty soon...we kind of need accurate information there.

Hollywood Gauge up the Wolf continues to go up...due to backwater flooding...
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/hlyt1_hg.png)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 29, 2011, 03:53:34 PM
NWS MEG:

Quote
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OUT OF THE MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS TO
EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING AND MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>008-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-300500-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.A.0008.110501T0000Z-110503T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-
LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-
HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
HELENA...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...SOUTHAVE N...OLIVE BRANCH...
CORINTH...IUKA...TUNICA...UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...
DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...HUNTINGDON... COVINGTON...JACKSON...
LEXINGTON...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERV ILLE...MEMPHIS...
MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH
339 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
 MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST TENNESSEE...
 INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST ARKANSAS...CLAY...
 CRAIGHEAD...CRITTENDEN...CROSS...GREENE...LA WRENCE...LEE...
 MISSISSIPPI...PHILLIPS...POINSETT...RANDOLPH AND ST. FRANCIS.
 IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ALCORN...BENTON...DESOTO...MAR SHALL...
 TATE...TIPPAH...TISHOMINGO AND TUNICA. IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
 DUNKLIN AND PEMISCOT. IN WEST TENNESSEE...CARROLL...CHESTER...
 CROCKETT...DECATUR...DYER...FAYETTE...GIBSON ...HARDEMAN...
 HARDIN...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...HENRY...LAKE. ..LAUDERDALE...
 MADISON...MCNAIRY...OBION...SHELBY...TIPTON AND WEAKLEY.

* FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 2 TO 5
  INCHES OF RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES ARE
  POSSIBLE.

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SATURATED
  SOILS ARE EXPECTED TO EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS THE
  WATCH AREA AND MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on April 29, 2011, 03:59:43 PM
Quote
...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
.
.
.
* PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 2 TO 5
  INCHES OF RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES ARE
  POSSIBLE.

Oh crap.  ::doh::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on April 29, 2011, 04:03:33 PM
I'm starting to wonder if something is wrong with the gauge...its been stuck at 38.44' feet since this morning...

I've followed the river quite regularly over the last few years and have seen this happen a few times.  The gauge will read a constant level for a few hours and then correct itself finally.  Trust me, its still rising.  Now the highest I've ever seen.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 04:05:14 PM
I've followed the river quite regularly over the last few years and have seen this happen a few times.  The gauge will read a constant level for a few hours and then correct itself finally.  Trust me, its still rising.  Now the highest I've ever seen.

My only hope is officials and such don't start thinking the river has stopped rising and halt plans. LMRFC already delayed the raise to 41ft at Memphis to Monday Morning this afternoon based on these morning readings...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on April 29, 2011, 04:24:06 PM
Ughhh... really???

(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/Forecast.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 29, 2011, 04:50:49 PM
My only hope is officials and such don't start thinking the river has stopped rising and halt plans. LMRFC already delayed the raise to 41ft at Memphis to Monday Morning this afternoon based on these morning readings...

Totally agree. With everything going on down here in the days to come I hope they take a serious look at this to make sure it's accurate.

I drive in on Riverside each morning and try to stop to take a look near the Mud Island River park. Using some basic reference points in the park it definitely looks to be up from this morning.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 29, 2011, 05:12:23 PM
Totally agree. With everything going on down here in the days to come I hope they take a serious look at this to make sure it's accurate.

I drive in on Riverside each morning and try to stop to take a look near the Mud Island River park. Using some basic reference points in the park it definitely looks to be up from this morning.

I was looking through Action News 5's Photos on facebook (the link is in the dave brown thread) and in there somewhere .. there was a photo from wednesday where water was ankle deep in the park across from harbor town on mud island. people were standing out in it.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 29, 2011, 05:17:27 PM
I was looking through Action News 5's Photos on facebook (the link is in the dave brown thread) and in there somewhere .. there was a photo from wednesday where water was ankle deep in the park across from harbor town on mud island. people were standing out in it.

Yep. The Greenbelt Park on Mud Island by Island Drive is the only land portion of our side of the river that completely floods (assuming we don't have an epic flood that gets up over 48 or 49 feet - I think at that point Tom Lee Park is under water at least for a few yards, but it will be a stretch to get there even this year.)

The craziest thing about the annual floods of the Greenbelt area is the stuff that turns up once the waters recede. You'll often drive down there in mid to late May after the water level lowers and see HUGE tree trunks, tires, occasionally some small appliances - you name it - that the river has pushed up to the banks.

That's when it really dawned on me how powerful the river is. It can push large items around like toys and leave them there once it recedes. Lord only knows the stuff that's at the bottom of the riverbed that we don't know about.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 29, 2011, 05:29:02 PM
My fear when driving over the wolf river bridges when the water is up to the road, with the current strong enough to move small appliances, is that the support gets washed out or you see the bridge crumble out from under the road in water safety videos.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 29, 2011, 05:31:26 PM
I am still really curious how future rainfall will affect the crest.

I really hope after the crest the river goes down quickly so the casinos can reopen. It's definitely going to really hurt the economy of the region.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 06:06:50 PM
WREG just said MEG told Shelby County EMA to expect the Memphis crest to be ~46.5 feet...not 45 feet as currently forecast (and so far on official forecast it remains that)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on April 29, 2011, 06:23:27 PM
WREG just said MEG told Shelby County EMA to expect the Memphis crest to be ~46.5 feet...not 45 feet as currently forecast (and so far on official forecast it remains that)

I wonder if that is accounting for the rainfall with the next system, whereas the official forecast only takes into account the next 24 hours...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 06:23:32 PM
Shelby Co 41ft Flood Maps...
(http://www.abc24.com/media/lib/10/9/7/5/975240b4-366b-499b-9979-8e8da8e14f82/Original.jpg)
(http://www.abc24.com/media/lib/10/8/8/f/88f5f2bd-a565-4edd-9a97-cd7d078f2e6c/Original.jpg)
(http://www.abc24.com/media/lib/10/0/5/e/05e306b0-51eb-4708-86ce-441830fbe6b4/Original.jpg)
(http://www.abc24.com/media/lib/10/5/7/8/57835f57-83d4-49f1-a015-71e17a05dff5/Original.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 29, 2011, 06:26:10 PM
I wonder if that is accounting for the rainfall with the next system, whereas the official forecast only takes into account the next 24 hours...

I think the implication is that MEG in its unofficial estimate is taking into account the forecast rain this weekend into next week.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 06:39:01 PM
I think the implication is that MEG in its unofficial estimate is taking into account the forecast rain this weekend into next week.

Possibly so.

Memphis gauge still reading 38.44 feet for the 10th hour...assuming an error at this point...though nobody has confirmed that other than indicating the river still seems to be rising.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 29, 2011, 06:47:57 PM
Not sure how this will affect points downstream if it happens...

Quote
CAPE GIRARDEAU, Mo. -- A federal judge on Friday gave the Army Corps of Engineers the go-ahead to intentionally break a Mississippi River levee in southeastern Missouri to spare a flood-threatened Illinois town just upriver.
U.S. District Judge Stephen Limbaugh Jr.'s ruling followed a five-hour Thursday hearing over Missouri's bid to halt the possible intentional levee break.

The corps has proposed using explosives to blow a 2-mile-wide hole through the Birds Point levee in southeast Missouri's Mississippi County, arguably to ease waters rising around the upstream town of Cairo, Ill., near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers.

The corps halted its preparation for the break Thursday, saying it needed until the weekend to assess whether a sustained crest of the Ohio at Cairo would demand the extraordinary step.

The river's crest at the Cairo flood wall could reach 60.3 feet -- nearly a foot above its record high -- as early as Sunday, corps spokesman Jim Pogue said. The wall protects the town up to 64 feet, but there's concern the crest could last up to five days, putting extra pressure on it.

Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee all want the corps to move forward with the plan. Missouri had sought a temporary restraining order to block the detonation. It was not immediately clear early Friday whether Missouri planned to appeal Limbaugh's denial of the order.

John McManus, an assistant Missouri attorney general, had argued the break would unleash a torrent of water that would carve a channel through prime farmland, flood about 90 homes and displace 200 people.

The rush of water also stood to cause an environmental catastrophe, sweeping away everything from fertilizer to diesel fuel, propane tanks, pesticides and other toxins, McManus and some of the four witnesses who testified for the state suggested Thursday.

Attorneys for the corps and the state of Illinois countered that the farmers already have land that's flooded and have been given ample notice to clear their properties of anything toxic. The state of Illinois and the town of Cairo argue the well-being of Cairo's 2,800 residents outweighs farmland that would be swallowed up by the rush.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 29, 2011, 07:11:30 PM
Geez...latest GFS ups the ante on rainfall in and around KMEM to almost 5 inches. Little Rock is over 7 inches. Yes its over a 3 day period but the ground is saturated. Couldnt be worse timing. I am no hydrologist, and not hyping, but would think potential exsists for higher, maybe significantly higher than 45.0 on the gauge at Memphis.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 29, 2011, 07:36:34 PM
I wonder what stage of the Wolf River at Germantown would imply that Germantown Parkway is flooded.  It would probably take a huge volume of water to do so, though, because most of the plain north of the Wolf River would have to fill up.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2011, 08:30:34 PM
MEG is reporting a stage of 39.0 feet this evening at Memphis in their FLS update. Not sure if this is estimated or was a manual reading.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 29, 2011, 09:23:10 PM
MEG is reporting a stage of 39.0 feet this evening at Memphis in their FLS update. Not sure if this is estimated or was a manual reading.

Don't know when they took it, but that would be pretty much on forecast.  I'm not sure why the gauge is not working/updating.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 29, 2011, 09:41:51 PM
Not sure how this will affect points downstream if it happens...

curt blowing a levee upstream has no change for down stream  i posted explanation somewhere else. Search for ACE and youll find it. The same vol of water still has to flow dn stream. If breach was south of mem it would help relieve pressure upstream. Sorry im on an ipod. Kbd is aweful.



Cu
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 29, 2011, 10:40:09 PM
curt blowing a levee upstream has no change for down stream  i posted explanation somewhere else. Search for ACE and youll find it. The same vol of water still has to flow dn stream. If breach was south of mem it would help relieve pressure upstream. Sorry im on an ipod. Kbd is aweful.



Cu

The reason for why that is escapes me, but apparently this is true. Blowing the levee up in New Madrid will help Cairo... not areas downstream.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on April 29, 2011, 11:24:28 PM
http://www.mvm.usace.army.mil/Readiness/bpnm/bpnminfo.asp (http://www.mvm.usace.army.mil/Readiness/bpnm/bpnminfo.asp)

Sounds like the floodway would fill, lowering levels above and adjacent to the floodway, but there is a draiage area at the southern end of floodway near New Madrid. This would allow the water to flow back into the Mississippi River, having no effect to crests downstream.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 29, 2011, 11:26:53 PM
The reason for why that is escapes me, but apparently this is true. Blowing the levee up in New Madrid will help Cairo... not areas downstream.
The land up north is higher and the water has to drain somewhere unfortunately.  :-\
I will say the spike in the river level today in Tunica was a bit alarming to me.  I marked a power pole near the entrance of casino center as a reference point when I came in to work this morning.  by the time I left the water had risen 1.5'-2' beyond that point.  If we get any decent rain this weekend I fear we will be looking at an all time high and the risk of Core of Engineers levees on the MS river being breached may become a reality in this area.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 30, 2011, 02:13:24 AM
Clearly this is the most threatening flood in any of our lifetime.

Historically the levees have failed on the AR side and then failed in the southern part of the Delta.

Also, the levee was weakened somme by the previous flood in March and I would also expect the major 2008 flood and the floods in 2009/2010 created some weaknesses. I believes it unusual to have floods that many years in a row all the way up to the levee. At the very least I expect some boils and leaking to occur somewhere between Caruthersville and Greenville.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on April 30, 2011, 09:36:46 AM
The gauge at Memphis is working now... Up to 39.93 ft.  Looks to be slightly ahead of projections.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 30, 2011, 10:10:14 AM
The gauge at Memphis is working now... Up to 39.93 ft.  Looks to be slightly ahead of projections.

We are now in the moderate flooding stage.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: dwagner88 on April 30, 2011, 10:25:48 AM
HPC forecast calls for 6-8 inches across eastern Arkansas again in the next five days. I just cannot fathom where all of that water is going to go.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2011, 12:48:47 PM
The gauge at Memphis is working now... Up to 39.93 ft.  Looks to be slightly ahead of projections.
I wonder if more "manual" readings will be needed in the future. It looks like it was corrected this morning. But at 11a it was 39.96 and at 12p it was 39.96. The next update is at 1p so if it is 39.96, I suspect it is hung again.


On a related note, in dryer seasons, the river is sometimes at a Negative reading. What is the true depth of the river? I know that 39 feet is not the bottom floor of the river to to the top. Anyone have a resource for this or know how the "depth" process works?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 01:14:29 PM
Did they blow the NM Levee? I notice several upstream locations are running below forecasts or even falling now...
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/nmdm7_hg.png)
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/tptt1_hg.png)
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/crtm7_hg.png)

LMRF is confirming these stages as accurate. Cairo is still on track though...
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/ciri2_hg.png)



Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 01:23:39 PM
I wonder if more "manual" readings will be needed in the future. It looks like it was corrected this morning. But at 11a it was 39.96 and at 12p it was 39.96. The next update is at 1p so if it is 39.96, I suspect it is hung again.


On a related note, in dryer seasons, the river is sometimes at a Negative reading. What is the true depth of the river? I know that 39 feet is not the bottom floor of the river to to the top. Anyone have a resource for this or know how the "depth" process works?

Memphis just updated to 40ft even...so still working as of now. FYI...new forecast information also just in...no changes to crests...still expecting 45.0 ft on 5/10 as of now...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 30, 2011, 01:41:55 PM
Memphis just updated to 40ft even...so still working as of now. FYI...new forecast information also just in...no changes to crests...still expecting 45.0 ft on 5/10 as of now...

Strange.  I see the forecast for the Wolf River at Germantown was updated this morning as well, and it shows the stage continuing to decline steadily.  It does not seem to be affected by the rains that are forecast starting tonight into next week.

Is it that the rain is not enough to have an effect, or is the rain not being taken into account yet?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 01:47:00 PM
Strange.  I see the forecast for the Wolf River at Germantown was updated this morning as well, and it shows the stage continuing to decline steadily.  It does not seem to be affected by the rains that are forecast starting tonight into next week.

Is it that the rain is not enough to have an effect, or is the rain not being taken into account yet?

Some of the rain is...but not all. They only account for 24-hour QPF.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: StormNine on April 30, 2011, 02:25:35 PM
 According to WPSD they are setting the explosives in Wickliffe KY instead of Hickman KY closer to Cairo IL.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 03:03:38 PM
MEG is asking that if you come across any river flooding...please report it to them. They're trying to make an accurate as an assessment as possible...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=meg
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 03:07:20 PM
Shelby County EMA is in the process of issuing a Civil Emergency for Shelby County...probably evacuations coming...

Weather Radios will alert when issued...and will scroll on local television...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on April 30, 2011, 03:12:46 PM
Was there ever an assessment for 45 feet or higher? I only saw 41.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 03:13:53 PM
Was there ever an assessment for 45 feet or higher? I only saw 41.

It hasn't been released to my knowledge. Perhaps that will be coming with this new information.

Fox 13 is advising a mayoral press conference coming at 4 PM which they will be carrying live on TV. That will have details I'm sure.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 03:20:56 PM
Action News 5
FLOODING UPDATE: The EMA says all Shelby County residents should take flood precautions now and be prepared to leave homes and businesses. According to the National Weather Service, damaging flood waters will likely reach the inside of homes and businesses in areas throughout Shelby County.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 03:32:51 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY MEMPHIS TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
MEMPHIS SHELBY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

FLOOD WARNING

ALL SHELBY RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTION NOW...ESPECIALLY
IF YOU LIVE WITHIN THE 100 YEAR FLOOD PLAIN OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS...TO BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE HOMES AND BUSINESSES IF
FLOODING OCCURS.

NEAR RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT
BORDERS SHELBY COUNTY.

A MESSAGE FROM THE SHELBY COUNTY MAYOR MARK H. LUTTRELL...THIS IS
THE TIME TO GATHER ALL IMPORTANT ITEMS AND BE READY TO LEAVE YOUR
PROPERTY. THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY PORTIONS OF SHELBY
COUNTY COULD BE AFFECTED BY THE RISING WATERS.

A C WHARTON...THE MAYOR OF MEMPHIS ADDED...WE WANT TO REASSURE OUR
CITIZENS THAT DISASTER TEAMS ARE IN PLACE AND WILL BE DOING
EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO KEEP EVERYONE SAFE.

SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE QUICKLY RISING IN THE WESTERN AREA OF SHELBY
COUNTY AND WILL LIKELY BACK UP INTO NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR CREEKS AND
STREAMS. FLOOD WATERS MAY ALSO RISE INTO NEIGHBORHOODS THROUGH
STORM DRAINS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN EACH DAY WITH THE CONTINUAL
RISE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 

GO IMMEDIATELY TO HIGHER GROUND IF WATER STARTS TO RISE. AVOID
FLOOD WATERS.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 30, 2011, 05:01:29 PM
Found out about this via my wife getting a text message....people are seriously freaking out about this part:

Quote
ALL SHELBY RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTION NOW...ESPECIALLY
IF YOU LIVE WITHIN THE 100 YEAR FLOOD PLAIN OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS...TO BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE HOMES AND BUSINESSES IF
FLOODING OCCURS.

I mean, I am correct if I tell them that their risk is almost zero if they live in a reasonably elevated spot (with the exception of flash flooding).  I don't won't to tell people wrong but there are people that are upset by this and I don't see any reason to believe that all of the homes in Shelby Co. are subject to any reasonable possibility of flooding. 

Any reason that I'm wrong before I tell people not to worry?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 05:23:12 PM
Found out about this via my wife getting a text message....people are seriously freaking out about this part:

I mean, I am correct if I tell them that their risk is almost zero if they live in a reasonably elevated spot (with the exception of flash flooding).  I don't won't to tell people wrong but there are people that are upset by this and I don't see any reason to believe that all of the homes in Shelby Co. are subject to any reasonable possibility of flooding. 

Any reason that I'm wrong before I tell people not to worry?

If you're within the 100-year flood plain..as the message says...you need to be prepared to leave. All areas may not necessarily flood...but the chance is there depending on exact levels on certain rivers...streams and creeks.

Are all homes are going to flood in Shelby County? Definitely not...if you're within the 500-year levels...it wouldn't hurt to check things out just in case...but most flood waters will not get to those levels. The one exception may be in the Frayser/Raleigh areas and also around Lucy/Millington and Shelby Forest...near the most significant backwater flooding on the Wolf and Loosahatchie. 45ft will be approaching 500-year levels most likely. If you're not within any of those areas...there's no reason for concern unless we get a heavy thunderstorm and flash flood situation in one particular area...which that's anybody's guess right now.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on April 30, 2011, 05:23:34 PM
Per KFVS, a mandatory evacuation of Cairo has been ordered by the mayor, effective at midnight tonight.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 06:07:38 PM
Staysafeshelby.us has a zip code by zip code breakdown of potential flood impacts through Sunday.

http://staysafeshelby.us/SCImpact_043011b.pdf

Its a very large file...so it may take some time to load...plus site traffic has been high and the site occasionally is crashing.

Here is an overview map...the pdf is much more detailed (outlining potential street closure areas)...
(http://i52.tinypic.com/280l36e.png)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 30, 2011, 06:12:44 PM
Water is in the hotel parking lot at Harrah's Casino now, and is beginning to back out of the storm drains in the lot.  With heavy rain tonight and no drainage, flash flooding may become a concern in this localized area.  
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2011, 06:12:55 PM
people are seriously freaking out about this

To take it to the level of winter warnings and people buying up all the milk and bread in the store,  Soon we will be seeing people walking around the grocery store with arm floaties and life preservers on.
 ::cliff::    ::rain::

/sarcasm
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 30, 2011, 06:32:56 PM
Pic of flooding from MS at the Harrah's Hotel

(http://i.imgur.com/QuKeM.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2011, 06:34:11 PM
Staysafeshelby.us has a zip code by zip code breakdown of potential flood impacts through Sunday.

http://staysafeshelby.us/SCImpact_043011b.pdf

Its a very large file...so it may take some time to load...plus site traffic has been high and the site occasionally is crashing.

Here is an overview map...the pdf is much more detailed (outlining potential street closure areas)...

I reviewed the map and I dont see how some of these areas they have marked as flooding will be flooding.. like sections of I240 and Bill Morris Pkwy... I dont see the water getting high enough to flood these. Maybe Ive got a different definition of "flooding"... Im thinking Flood = impassable.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 30, 2011, 06:35:44 PM
Tunica Riverpark is already at 50 feet. I'm assuming this is a pretty new gauge because that already puts it above its record. I'm a little concerned because it seems most other gauges are expecting another 4-5 ft rise, but at 53 ft this happens:

Quote
53   Water begins to go over levee at Casino Strip.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 06:41:38 PM
I reviewed the map and I dont see how some of these areas they have marked as flooding will be flooding.. like sections of I240 and Bill Morris Pkwy... I dont see the water getting high enough to flood these. Maybe Ive got a different definition of "flooding"... Im thinking Flood = impassable.

I agree...I don't know where some of those projections are coming from. Perhaps they are talking about on-ramps or service roads adjacent to them that will be lower.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 30, 2011, 07:13:45 PM
How can we help here from Nashville? Food, water, clothes, which area will need it the most?? We need a open line to areas that need aid. Have people in Alabama right now, some of us can come West.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 30, 2011, 07:46:14 PM
It looks like the heavy rain/marginal severe threat is starting to our west.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 30, 2011, 07:49:46 PM
PDS FFW is out.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2011, 07:53:36 PM
PDS FFW is out.

Where can I find this? I looked in the usual places but apparently not the right places  ::candle::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2011, 07:54:35 PM
I dont think this has been posted yet. It appears to be a little higher total from the last one I saw of max 3.5" in E AR.


(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/meg/graphicast/image_full3.gif)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 30, 2011, 07:59:45 PM
Where can I find this? I looked in the usual places but apparently not the right places  ::candle::
Quote
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
  AND WEST TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... IN EAST
  ARKANSAS...CLAY...CRAIGHEAD...CRITTENDEN...C ROSS...
  GREENE...LAWRENCE...LEE...MISSISSIPPI...PHIL LIPS...POINSETT...
  RANDOLPH AND ST. FRANCIS. IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ALCORN...
  BENTON...COAHOMA...DESOTO...MARSHALL...PANOL A...QUITMAN...
  TATE...TIPPAH...TISHOMINGO AND TUNICA. IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  DUNKLIN AND PEMISCOT. IN WEST TENNESSEE...CARROLL...CHESTER...
  CROCKETT...DECATUR...DYER...FAYETTE...GIBSON ...HARDEMAN...
  HARDIN...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...HENRY...LAKE. ..LAUDERDALE...
  MADISON...MCNAIRY...OBION...SHELBY...TIPTON AND WEAKLEY.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION!

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES
  OF RAIN IN A WIDE SWATH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
  I-40.

* THERE IS A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS RAINFALL ON ALREADY
  SATURATED SOILS WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND EXACERBATE
  ONGOING FLOODING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SEVERELY IMPACT MUCH OF
  THE MIDSOUTH. NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES...EVACUATION OF HOMES NEAR
  RISING FLOOD WATER...AND RECORD HIGH RIVER CRESTS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLOOD WATERS THREATEN. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND EVACUATE WHEN ADVISED TO DO SO. DO NOT DRIVE
THROUGH FLOOD WATERS! THE ROADWAY UNDERNEATH MAY BE WASHED OUT.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 30, 2011, 08:01:58 PM
Quote
THE LLJ WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT THEREBY LESSENING THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...SO THE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL ALSO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY MORNING. A RENEWED SURGE OF MOISTURE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SPARK THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER
NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...WEST TN...AND NWRN MS. 00Z 5-DAY HPC QPF
HAS INCREASED TO WIDESPREAD 5 OR 6 INCHES NORTH OF I-40...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES EXISTS WHERE STORMS TRAIN THE MOST.

GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ON WHAT IS
ALREADY A VERY SERIOUS AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING SITUATION...ISSUED
A PDS FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
NATURE OF THE SITUATION EVOLVING OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH.

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2011, 08:11:38 PM


cool thanks. I cant say recall ever seeing a PDS flash flood watch.. but I do see the urgency... just dont recall ever seeing one before.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2011, 08:28:53 PM
cool thanks. I cant say recall ever seeing a PDS flash flood watch.. but I do see the urgency... just dont recall ever seeing one before.
i thought the last flash flood watch was also a pds... early this week ::shrug::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 30, 2011, 08:31:27 PM
i thought the last flash flood watch was also a pds... early this week ::shrug::

Yeah, it was. I can see how it got lost in the shuffle though. Before the earlier one I had never seen on before either.

Actually, the one issued by MEG on April 24, 2011 was the first PDS Flash Flood Watch ever.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2011, 08:33:50 PM
Yeah, it was. I can see how it got lost in the shuffle though. Before the earlier one I had never seen on before either.

Actually, the one issued by MEG on April 24, 2011 was the first PDS Flash Flood Watch ever.

ahh yes, i do remember the chatter on the forum about how strange the pds flash flood watch was..  ::doh::  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 30, 2011, 08:34:33 PM
Quote
0430 PM     FLOOD            1 NW DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS   35.14N 90.06W
04/30/2011                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            WOLF RIVER REPORTED IN YARDS AND CLOSE TO HOMES IN THE
            HARBOR TOWN NEIGHBORHOOD.
Quote
0415 PM     FLOOD            3 NW GERMANTOWN         35.12N 89.83W
04/30/2011                   SHELBY             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHELBY COUNTY SHERIFF TRAINING ACADEMY BEING EVACUATED
            OFF OF DOVES CREST AVENUE. ALSO SHELBY CO SHERIFF GUN
            RANGE UNDERWATER.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: cliftown04 on April 30, 2011, 09:04:47 PM
I dont understand why they did a PDS watch for all of west TN.  I can possibly undertand the Memphis/Mississippi River area, but I dont feel it is at all waranted as far east as me over along the Hardin, Decatur Co. border.  I seriously hope the term PDS does not begin getting overused because I believe it will loose its effectiveness.  Talking with family and friends I have already heard many questioning the over use of  recent Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warnings in our area.  Just a feeling, and I know they must be a tough call for those issuing as well.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2011, 09:09:20 PM
The storms in central arkansas have formed a nice squall line with a discrete cell in ne tx thats gone TOR..
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 09:41:07 PM
At least for the moment...the Wolf River gauges at both Hollywood St and Raleigh are falling (and have been all day) instead of rising...despite the MS River continuing to rise. Probably residual water from the rainfall event moving out...as levels at Both Germantown and Rossville are dropping drastically.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 30, 2011, 09:51:32 PM
Cairo is at 59.32, which puts it .18 from 59.5. When it crosses 59.5 it will be the highest crest on record.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2011, 10:00:59 PM
Cairo is at 59.32, which puts it .18 from 59.5. When it crosses 59.5 it will be the highest crest on record.

wow that just 2 5/32 inches.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on April 30, 2011, 10:03:00 PM
I'm starting to feel a little bit of disbelief that this might actually be happening.  I think the turning point for me was seeing bugalou's picture of the parking lot filling up at Harrah's in Tunica.  It was like seeing the first waves cross the dunes in a storm, I guess.  I know it's coming and I hope we end up a lot better than expected but it's a very uneasy feeling.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Sbeagles on April 30, 2011, 10:12:12 PM
I dont understand why they did a PDS watch for all of west TN.  I can possibly undertand the Memphis/Mississippi River area, but I dont feel it is at all waranted as far east as me over along the Hardin, Decatur Co. border.  I seriously hope the term PDS does not begin getting overused because I believe it will loose its effectiveness.  Talking with family and friends I have already heard many questioning the over use of  recent Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warnings in our area.  Just a feeling, and I know they must be a tough call for those issuing as well.
As far as Hardin and Decatur Co goes it could be because of the Tennessee river flooding. It is by no means in the same condition as the Mississippi but it is very high already and is still rising fairly quickly. Its come up just over a foot today judging by my back yard. The situation going on along the Mississippi river is just unbelievable. So sad to see this developing story.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2011, 10:31:43 PM
Sirens are going off in Mississippi County, Arkansas. There is no severe weather there yet. I wonder why they would be going off now? Could it be a levee breach?   ::shrug::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on April 30, 2011, 10:53:49 PM
Sirens are going off in Mississippi County, Arkansas. There is no severe weather there yet. I wonder why they would be going off now? Could it be a levee breach?   ::shrug::

Weird. It's not even raining in the county. I'd expect if there was a levee breach for a flash flood warning to be issued.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 10:56:30 PM
MS River Earlier Today looking towards West Memphis...Photo by Keith Crawford...
(http://i.imgur.com/16j8R.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Johnny on April 30, 2011, 10:57:00 PM
I'm just going to be popping in here for a second, and I really only read the first page and I saw that there was a PDS Flash Flood watch? That was the first one ever issued right? I really don't see the point..
MS River Earlier Today looking towards West Memphis...Photo by Keith Crawford...
(http://i.imgur.com/16j8R.jpg)

Wow.. I haven't been downtown since all this flooding and such, I might go down there tomorrow.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2011, 11:02:21 PM
I'm just going to be popping in here for a second, and I really only read the first page and I saw that there was a PDS Flash Flood watch? That was the first one ever issued right? I really don't see the point..
Wow.. I haven't been downtown since all this flooding and such, I might go down there tomorrow.

Its not the first ever issued. The ones last week were PDS...and were a coordinated effort by WFO MEG...LZK and PAH. Those were the first PDS FFA ever issued. You can argue whether they add anything to it...but be sure to be making the same argument for Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches...its no different. ;)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2011, 11:06:10 PM
MS River Earlier Today looking towards West Memphis...Photo by Keith Crawford...
(http://i.imgur.com/16j8R.jpg)

The guy that shot these pics also posted 14 others on Facebook. Tom Lee Park, Summer Drive in , CBHS, the Summer Bus lot, putt putt, the Germantown Causeway lol, Dewitt Spain Airport, some ball fields in Raleigh.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on April 30, 2011, 11:24:38 PM
MS River Earlier Today looking towards West Memphis...Photo by Keith Crawford...
(http://i.imgur.com/16j8R.jpg)

Is there a repository of these images?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 30, 2011, 11:36:40 PM
MS River Earlier Today looking towards West Memphis...Photo by Keith Crawford...
(http://i.imgur.com/16j8R.jpg)

I will be taking my pictures from the top of the Horseshoe casino hotel tomorrow.   This will be the last opportunity I will get because they will be starting the water wall later tomorrow night which will essentially isolate the casinos at casino center from the rest of the world unless you have a boat or a helicopter.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on April 30, 2011, 11:39:04 PM
I'm starting to feel a little bit of disbelief that this might actually be happening.  I think the turning point for me was seeing bugalou's picture of the parking lot filling up at Harrah's in Tunica.  It was like seeing the first waves cross the dunes in a storm, I guess.  I know it's coming and I hope we end up a lot better than expected but it's a very uneasy feeling.

Yeah it is crazy!  The water was actually coming up from the storm drains!  The temporary solution was they sandbagged the drains closed and are pumping the water out.  This wont last very long though as the water was about 8" from the concrete wall that separates the parking lot with the lake/river.  Harrah's will be closed at 5AM this coming morning though.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Drew_ on May 01, 2011, 12:23:23 AM
is the front going to stall out over us and to our north?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2011, 12:25:36 AM
is the front going to stall out over us and to our north?

stationary front is going to stall just to our south.. the storms are going to run along the boundary. Like Jackson TN to Clarksdale MS...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2011, 12:34:09 AM
How are they arranging aid to people that are going to be displaced other than the red cross?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 01, 2011, 02:07:00 AM
I honestly don't know Nashville_wx.

Serious flash flooding occurring north of Little Rock.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 01, 2011, 04:19:31 AM
MEG seems very worried.
Quote
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EVENT
JUST BEGINNING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST
WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD WHILE SEVERAL WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5
TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VALUES ARE ALSO
QUITE IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT HEAVY RAINFALL
IS VERY LIKELY. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LARGE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40...THAT COULD RECEIVE 4
INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN WITH UP TO 8 INCHES IN SPOTS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAIL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF I-40 WITH AREAS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI RECEIVING MUCH LESS...PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES.

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2011, 07:50:09 AM
There is a storm report out of Lonoke AR. "6.71 inches of rain from a cocorahs site. About a foot of water over hwy 67 1.5 mile north of exit 16."
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 01, 2011, 10:22:02 AM
We've probably gotten somewhere near the higher end of 3-4" here.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2011, 10:32:08 AM
We've probably gotten somewhere near the higher end of 3-4" here.

Pretty amazing as I haven't even had an inch here...closer to 1/2" actually. North of I-40 (especially W/NW Shelby County) has been a sharp dividing line this morning. Haven't heard of any major flooding issues...however...to this point. Looks like the front has lifted a little north this morning taking most of Shelby County out of the rainfall axis...for now.

Some good news...models are backing off a bit with rainfall amounts...beginning to shift them slightly north and west of here in Memphis with the front hanging up a bit further north than before (as we're seeing some this morning perhaps). Would not be helpful to the MS River...but the smaller rivers and especially flash flooding could be relieved some if that happens. Would be 2-4" of additional rainfall instead of 4-7". Still a lot...but a big difference...we'll see how it plays out.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2011, 10:38:59 AM
MS River/Memphis gauge at 41ft even this morning. Pretty close if just ever so slightly under forecast.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2011, 10:53:58 AM
Quote
TNC157-021553-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FL.W.0078.110502T1042Z-110505T0048Z/
/GERT1.2.ER.110502T1042Z.110504T0000Z.110504T1848Z.NO/
1053 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  THE WOLF RIVER AT GERMANTOWN
* FROM EARLY TOMORROW UNTIL WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 9 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS...16.5 FEET AND RISING.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 25.0 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.5 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 25.0 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR AND NATURE TRAILS ALL ALONG
THE WOLF RIVER WILL BE FLOODED. 

$$

TNC047-157-020920-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FL.W.0079.110501T2028Z-110502T0920Z/
/ARLT1.1.ER.110501T2028Z.110502T0000Z.110502T0320Z.NO/
1053 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  THE LOOSAHATCHIE RIVER AT ARLINGTON
* FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL TONIGHT.
* AT 10 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS...12.2 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 21.0 FEET THIS EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 21.0 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER MAY
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT.
ROADS DOWNSTREAM FROM ARLINGTON WILL LIKELY FLOOD AND THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD LOWLAND FLOODING.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 01, 2011, 03:05:26 PM
Pretty amazing as I haven't even had an inch here...closer to 1/2" actually. North of I-40 (especially W/NW Shelby County) has been a sharp dividing line this morning. Haven't heard of any major flooding issues...however...to this point. Looks like the front has lifted a little north this morning taking most of Shelby County out of the rainfall axis...for now.

Some good news...models are backing off a bit with rainfall amounts...beginning to shift them slightly north and west of here in Memphis with the front hanging up a bit further north than before (as we're seeing some this morning perhaps). Would not be helpful to the MS River...but the smaller rivers and especially flash flooding could be relieved some if that happens. Would be 2-4" of additional rainfall instead of 4-7". Still a lot...but a big difference...we'll see how it plays out.

Yeah, it's been a sharp divide. I was basing my guess on radar and what I'd seen here on campus. But I had to run an errand and I think I might have overestimated. Around 3" is probably more accurate. My folks at home have only seen sprinkles. Still not good though.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 01, 2011, 03:51:21 PM
The Memphis gauge is a smidge above forecast, but the other gauges seem like they have stalled for a bit.

Cairo still rising...

EDIT:
Actually Osceola is a bit ahead of forecast.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 01, 2011, 09:57:26 PM
Some pictures as promised.  It was wild to see from the 15th floor of horseshoe.  It was water as far on the horizon as I could see looking west.

Harrah's Parking Lot
(http://i.imgur.com/rByQI.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/2qJPV.jpg)

Harrah's Ramp Entrance:
(http://i.imgur.com/EV4LL.jpg)

Water wall being built at Casino Center from Horseshoe Hotel 15th Floor:
(http://i.imgur.com/8mn8g.jpg)


Looking North and west from the Horseshoe Hotel 15th Floor:
(http://i.imgur.com/oaF3g.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/Y6HtP.jpg)



Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 01, 2011, 09:59:03 PM
Here is a couple of Youtube Videos that show a brief panoramic view from the Horseshoe Hotel.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVG88IllFeA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8d1wYEmG_8

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 01, 2011, 11:27:21 PM
Quote
ARC035-077-MSC033-143-TNC157-030251-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MEMT1.2.ER.110426T2330Z.110510T1200Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
952 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MEMPHIS
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 09 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 41.5 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 34.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
  RISING TO NEAR 45.0 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY
  BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.

Question... I thought 45 was supposed to be the eventual crest?


Thanks for the pics, bug. I haven't gotten to go home (finals/internship) and I've checking out pics on Facebook. People are very upset and worried down there...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 01, 2011, 11:41:18 PM
Yep. Even the updated map from MEG has a crest of 45.0 on May 10. Maybe they expect it to hang around that vicinity from Tuesday May 3 until May 10.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 01, 2011, 11:44:27 PM
Question... I thought 45 was supposed to be the eventual crest?


Thanks for the pics, bug. I haven't gotten to go home (finals/internship) and I've checking out pics on Facebook. People are very upset and worried down there...

I was quite striking to me... As far as I could see was all water.  It is also crazy how quickly it is rising.  At one point today it rose around 6 inches in 2 hours time.  I fear how high this thing will go.
I get to go under the bridges at Harrah's tomorrow that connect the barge with the land to inspect our fiber optic cabling.  At around 45' on the Memphis gauge we will likely have to disengage the bridges from the barge and may have to preemptively severe our cabling.  Fun times!
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2011, 12:28:24 AM
Yep. Even the updated map from MEG has a crest of 45.0 on May 10. Maybe they expect it to hang around that vicinity from Tuesday May 3 until May 10.

What happened to that report of NWS MEG telling wreg3 about a new crest of 46.5, taking into account the rain fall? I havent heard much more about that lately. It seems over the last few reports, MS River at memphis has been a little higher than forecast each reading.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 02, 2011, 12:03:02 PM
Here is a picture from this morning of me standing in from of Harrah's preparing to inspect our fiber optic cabling:
(http://i.imgur.com/rJ05E.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 12:25:00 PM
Great pic.

Memphis gauge has consistently been running above the forecast.

Tunica gauge is at 52.88.

Quote
53.5   Levee around Casino Strip could be topped. Lucky Lane to Fitzgerald's Casino is flooding. Willow's Camp Headquarters is flooded.
53   Water begins to go over levee at Casino Strip.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 12:28:00 PM
Weird. Tiptonville's gauge has spiked. Either it wasn't updating for two days or something, but it has spiked to 49.14. That puts it 2 feet above forecast.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 12:29:01 PM
Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  ALEXANDER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT MONDAY.

* AT 954 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A BREECH IN THE
FAYETTEVILLE LEVEE JUST SOUTH OF THE RAILROAD BRIDGE AT THEBES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING THAT WILL LIKELY CLOSE PARTS OF
HIGHWAY 3. IT WILL ALSO AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF OLIVE BRANCH AND
EVENTUALLY CAIRO.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  OLIVE BRANCH...
  HORSESHOE LAKE CONSERVATION AREA...
  TAMMS...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 02, 2011, 12:31:49 PM
Here is a picture from this morning of me standing in from of Harrah's preparing to inspect our fiber optic cabling

Looks like you're going to need some scuba gear!

Drove home from Paris to Memphis this AM... Heard on the radio (KFKQ out of Paris/Union City) that they are going to blow the Bird's Point levee at 1PM today, per the Lake Co. TN Mayor.  

Back on the home front, they issued evacuation orders for several of the homes on Mud Island effective 10AM this morning.  They are mostly on the back edge of the island near the Wolf River Lagoon.  The part of Island Drive that runs east-west along the north end of the Wolf River Lagoon will likely begin flooding by later this week.  The water is only within 2-3 feet of the road in several places.  2nd street north of Island Drive is closed.

I think that we will see an increase in the forcasted crest here at Memphis soon.  The river is rising much more rapidly than predicted (looks to be about 24 hours ahead of forecast).  They increased the crest on the Ohio River at Paducah today from 54 ft to 58.5 ft. They also increased Cairo to 63 ft (flood wall only protects to 64 ft).  Lake Barkley (Cumberland River) and Kentucky Lake (Tennessee River) are essentially at the top of the dams, and they have had to start opening the flood gates, allowing more water to enter the Ohio River.  I think we will see this translate south, with crests going up at least a foot or two (hopefully not more.)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 12:39:16 PM
I agree. Cairo's forecast held steady at 60.5 until it was at 60 and still rising, so they upped it 63.

If they know now the crest is too low they should update it. Otherwise it's irresponsible.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2011, 01:49:15 PM
Looks like West Memphis and Marion are starting to have some troubles from the rain.
West Memphis schools are out. Many roads are closed in West Memphis and Marion. From what I see on Facebook, there isnt much communication within the city to alert the residents of the scope.

Here is one photo from northwest West Memphis near the corner of Lehr St and Ross Rd. You are looking down Lehr toward Ross. That is the 10 Mile Bayou that is crossing "under" Lehr.

(http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc421/wxcm/LehratRoss10mibayouwestmemphis5-2-11.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2011, 02:52:13 PM
LMRFC hasn't released new MS River Forecast information yet...they've updated other river information in their area...however. You have to think at least a small crest increase is inevitable...but they've been holding to 45 for a while. MEG has been hinting at a higher crest to local officials...but MEG doesn't issue the forecasts...so they can only go by the official information.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2011, 03:01:54 PM
Here is a picture from this morning of me standing in from of Harrah's preparing to inspect our fiber optic cabling:
(http://i.imgur.com/rJ05E.jpg)

hey bugalou, are those company issued waders?  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 03:50:46 PM
My aunt lives in Marion, AR in the River Trace subdivision. All 3 entrances are underwater..

We are somewhere between 5 and 6 inches here from this event.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 03:55:14 PM
LMRFC hasn't released new MS River Forecast information yet...they've updated other river information in their area...however. You have to think at least a small crest increase is inevitable...but they've been holding to 45 for a while. MEG has been hinting at a higher crest to local officials...but MEG doesn't issue the forecasts...so they can only go by the official information.

With Memphis already over 42.5 I concur that an increase of some magnitude is inevitable.

Two "imminent" levee failures are occurring in Paducah's CWA.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2011, 04:14:35 PM
My aunt lives in Marion, AR in the River Trace subdivision. All 3 entrances are underwater..

We are somewhere between 5 and 6 inches here from this event.

Here is a photo from one of the entrances. Ironically the cross roads are Marion Lake Rd & Cypress Rd. This photo was taken around 3pm.

(http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc421/wxcm/rivertraceentrance5-2-11.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2011, 04:29:49 PM
Being told Shelby County EMA is being briefed that an official crest adjustment to 48ft will be made this afternoon...

EDIT...here it is...
Quote
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MEMPHIS 
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* RIVER STAGE AT MEMPHIS FORECAST TO BE THE HIGHEST SINCE 1937. 
* AT 04 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 42.6 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 34.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR   
  48.0 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY   
  BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. 
* AT 40.0 FEET...HOMSTEADS ON ROBINSON CRUSO ISLAND ARE FLOODING.   
  THERE IS EXTENSIVE BACKWATER FLOODING ALONG THE WOLF AND LOOSAHATCHIE   
  RIVER IN WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY. 
* AT 48.0 FEET...RIVERSIDE DRIVE ON THE MEMPHIS WATER FRONT AND TOM   
  LEE PARK IS FLOODED. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on May 02, 2011, 04:34:32 PM
Being told Shelby County EMA is being briefed that an official crest adjustment to 48ft will be made this afternoon...

EDIT...here it is...

Yikes!  That is near the record.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 04:34:56 PM
Ha, I know that road, WFayette. The swamp is right behind her house.


Whoa. That is quite a crest.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 04:38:48 PM
Helena went up a lot...
Quote
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT HELENA
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* RIVER STAGE AT HELENA FORECAST TO BE THE HIGHEST SINCE 1937.
* AT 04 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 49.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 44.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE  AND WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR
  56.0 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY
  BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.

* AT 51.0 FEET...LOADING DOCKS NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES ARE FLOODED.
* AT 55.0 FEET...HIGHWAY 79 BETWEEN CODY AND MARIANNA, AKANSAS IS FLOODED.

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2011, 04:42:24 PM
All other MS River points were adjusted upward as well...

These are the new numbers...
Tiptonville...51.5ft (previous 50.0) Record Flooding Exceeding 47.8
Caruthersville...49.5ft (previous 48.0) Record Flooding Exceeding 46.0
Osceola...47.5ft (previous 45.5) Major Flooding 3.4ft Short of Record
Memphis...48.0ft (previous 45.0) Major Flooding (Upgrade of Level) to 0.7ft Short of Record
Helena...56.0ft (previous 52.5) Major Flooding  (Upgrade of Level) to 4.2ft Short of Record
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2011, 04:44:59 PM
*Breaking*

Cairo Levee Decision will be Announced at 5 PM...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: ultra mag on May 02, 2011, 04:51:04 PM
 Just saw a pic on another site showing water running over birds point levee.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: justinmundie on May 02, 2011, 04:58:33 PM
Does 48 feet top the levees in West Memphis? Geez... I can't imagine what the west side of the river looks like if Tom Lee and Riverside are under water.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mooncar on May 02, 2011, 05:06:28 PM
I live in Crittenden Co. AR. in Proctor. The levee is basically in my front yard.  No one on this side of the river  is saying anything. Deductive reasoning leads me to believe that I should pack up and leave now. I have not seen this amount of water in my  lifetime and was just wondering what a flood of this magnitude would do. I cant get a solid answer on the actual height of the levees in this area or what kind of shape they are in. Any info?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on May 02, 2011, 05:11:42 PM
Wolf River at Germantown is still forecasted to go to 25 ft, which is less than the crest last Friday.  That probably won't deteriorate, because the backwater from the Mississippi won't really reach that far and because SE Shelby Co. and points east would not be getting as much rain as areas to the north and northwest.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2011, 05:15:58 PM
...Birds Point Levee WILL be blown Tonight between 9 PM and Midnight...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 05:44:39 PM
...Birds Point Levee WILL be blown Tonight between 9 PM and Midnight...

Did they provide any concrete info on how this will affect downstream?

I know we've talked about it a couple of times, but I'd like some official word. I'm sure others would too.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Jason M on May 02, 2011, 05:51:33 PM
Did they provide any concrete info on how this will affect downstream?


Good question. Wonder if any will flow into the Obion River downstream... it's already almost over highway 45E here in gibson county, or the Forked Deer river, it's almost over the highway too  ::faint::

I truly thought that the flooding we got here last year was something that would not be repeated for a long, long, long time. Two years in a row? It's truly mind-boggling...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2011, 06:05:35 PM
Did they provide any concrete info on how this will affect downstream?

I know we've talked about it a couple of times, but I'd like some official word. I'm sure others would too.

Im not an official word, but Ive talked to a friend of mine who worked as an intern a couple years for the Corps and whos dad has worked for them for many years. They tell me that if there is a breach to the north, the same volume of water has to flow downstream, so there is no relief. That is why it doesnt matter what happens to the north. If there was a breach to the south, it would allow some level of relief to the north.

You might comb around on the Army Corp of Engineers, Memphis website and see if you find anything official there. If you do, Id love to read it too.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 07:38:08 PM
Yeah, that makes sense. I perused the Corps' website earlier trying to find the height of various points on the levees. I'm unaware of any spillways down south that they could blow...

You can tell that the ground here really can't hold anymore water. After 10 minutes of a downpour water is coming into the first floor hallway of my building. Last week it took two hours of torrential rain to do that.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2011, 07:40:14 PM
MEG...
Quote
BASED ON DISCUSSION WITH THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS...THEY DO NOT FEEL 
LIKE ANY UPSTREAM OPERATIONS AT THE BIRD POINT LEVEE WILL HAVE A 
DIRECT IMPACT AT MEMPHIS...AND ONLY MINIMAL IMPACT IF ANY UPSTREAM 
AT TIPTONVILLE AND CARUTHERSVILLE. THE RELEASE OF WATER FROM 
BEHIND THE LEVEE WILL SIMPLY NOT ADD ANY ADDITIONAL WATER TO THE 
RIVER SYSTEM...JUST CHANGE THE PATH THAT THE WATER TAKES GETTING 
INTO THE RIVER SYSTEM. THANKS TO THE CORPS FOR A FANTASTIC 
DISCUSSION EARLIER TODAY. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 07:45:19 PM
MEG...

Thanks! Actually, I didn't think it would add water. My thinking was it would relieve pressure. I feel like that is what others here thought too.

Also, this is sort of random, but does anyone know if the Metal Museum of Memphis is expected to flood?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 08:20:28 PM
Wow, Natchez is forecast to crest at 65 ft, almost a full 7 feet above their all time record from 1937!
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2011, 08:29:03 PM
Bird Point Levee Operation will begin within the hour according to the ACE. Also...The decorative lights on the Hernando Desoto (I-40) Bridge have been shut off as MLGW has removed the transformers which control their electricity in order to prevent damage. They are located under the bridge and will be flooded...they were already within a foot of the water when removed earlier Today.

As far as the metal museum...I haven't heard anything but it seems that area will be high enough to not be affected.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2011, 08:52:50 PM
MIM BBQ Contest Next Weekend is being moved to Tiger Lane @ The Fairgrounds according to Fox 13...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2011, 09:01:45 PM
Live video of the blow

http://www.kfvs12.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?vt1=l&d1=0&ClipId1=mms%3A%2F%2Fa1820.l1185555873.c11855.n.lm.akamaistream.net%2FD%2F1820%2F11855%2Fv0001%2Freflector%3A55873&LiveURI=mms%3A%2F%2Fa1820.l1185555873.c11855.n.lm.akamaistream.net%2FD%2F1820%2F11855%2Fv0001%2Freflector%3A55873&h1=LIVE (http://www.kfvs12.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?vt1=l&d1=0&ClipId1=mms%3A%2F%2Fa1820.l1185555873.c11855.n.lm.akamaistream.net%2FD%2F1820%2F11855%2Fv0001%2Freflector%3A55873&LiveURI=mms%3A%2F%2Fa1820.l1185555873.c11855.n.lm.akamaistream.net%2FD%2F1820%2F11855%2Fv0001%2Freflector%3A55873&h1=LIVE)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2011, 09:19:02 PM
Live video of the blow

http://www.kfvs12.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?vt1=l&d1=0&ClipId1=mms%3A%2F%2Fa1820.l1185555873.c11855.n.lm.akamaistream.net%2FD%2F1820%2F11855%2Fv0001%2Freflector%3A55873&LiveURI=mms%3A%2F%2Fa1820.l1185555873.c11855.n.lm.akamaistream.net%2FD%2F1820%2F11855%2Fv0001%2Freflector%3A55873&h1=LIVE (http://www.kfvs12.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?vt1=l&d1=0&ClipId1=mms%3A%2F%2Fa1820.l1185555873.c11855.n.lm.akamaistream.net%2FD%2F1820%2F11855%2Fv0001%2Freflector%3A55873&LiveURI=mms%3A%2F%2Fa1820.l1185555873.c11855.n.lm.akamaistream.net%2FD%2F1820%2F11855%2Fv0001%2Freflector%3A55873&h1=LIVE)

Well, they are onsite. Waiting for the horn to blow signaling 5 minutes. Not sure what we can see at night... but worth a look.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2011, 09:31:54 PM
I am just getting the weather and news with that site

They are in standby mode. Apparently, at 9p ACE started a check to make sure all personnel were out of the breach area. The news crew kind of jumped the gun, on it.... and now they are standing around waiting. But as soon as they hear the 5 minute horn, they will be live on site.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 02, 2011, 09:46:59 PM
Live video of the blow

http://www.kfvs12.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?vt1=l&d1=0&ClipId1=mms%3A%2F%2Fa1820.l1185555873.c11855.n.lm.akamaistream.net%2FD%2F1820%2F11855%2Fv0001%2Freflector%3A55873&LiveURI=mms%3A%2F%2Fa1820.l1185555873.c11855.n.lm.akamaistream.net%2FD%2F1820%2F11855%2Fv0001%2Freflector%3A55873&h1=LIVE (http://www.kfvs12.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?vt1=l&d1=0&ClipId1=mms%3A%2F%2Fa1820.l1185555873.c11855.n.lm.akamaistream.net%2FD%2F1820%2F11855%2Fv0001%2Freflector%3A55873&LiveURI=mms%3A%2F%2Fa1820.l1185555873.c11855.n.lm.akamaistream.net%2FD%2F1820%2F11855%2Fv0001%2Freflector%3A55873&h1=LIVE)

Nice find Chris!
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 02, 2011, 10:06:34 PM
The levee just blew... they will blow the levee in two other places overnight to create outflow tracts.  Too bad they didn't blow it during the day so you could see what was happening.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2011, 10:10:13 PM
They said they prefer to blow during the day, but the ACE thought they could not wait until morning. The 2nd blow will be between 1-4a,  then the 3rd breach which creates the new outflow point between 10a-12p. It will create a 130,000 acre lake.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2011, 10:10:56 PM
Nice find Chris!

Thanks Curt!  ::bacon:: for everyone!
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: ultra mag on May 02, 2011, 10:12:18 PM
thanks
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 02, 2011, 10:28:51 PM
First blast at the Birds Point was set off. Historic moment here....
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2011, 10:29:24 PM
According to the comments on Facebook, the explosion was felt in Dyersburg TN, Wilson AR, Caruthersville MO... I wonder what effect this has on the New Madrid Fault.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 02, 2011, 10:44:44 PM
Yes, I heard it was felt all the way down past the bootheel. Crazy...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 02, 2011, 10:45:25 PM
We heard and felt it in Dyersburg.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 02, 2011, 11:28:42 PM
According to the comments on Facebook, the explosion was felt in Dyersburg TN, Wilson AR, Caruthersville MO... I wonder what effect this has on the New Madrid Fault.

I doubt it did anything but one of the leading theories is that small quakes usually release pressure so it's unlikely that it would have a negative effect. 

On the other hand...I've heard it postulated that the weight of ice on the continent and the release of that weight had something to do with the New Madrid quake of 1812.  Although I'm not buying that theory either, there will obviously be a lot of additional water weight in the center of the North American continent.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 02, 2011, 11:39:12 PM
(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/ciri2_hg.png)

This shows the effect of blowing the levee very well... They also lowered forecasts for the upstream gauges.  Paducah crest down to 55.5 from 58.5.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 02, 2011, 11:48:14 PM
(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/ciri2_hg.png)

This shows the effect of blowing the levee very well... They also lowered forecasts for the upstream gauges.  Paducah crest down to 55.5 from 58.5.

I am guessing blowing a levee to our south isn't an option as the river is into the alluvial plain at that point and would likely flood hundreds of thousands of acres of land and lots of delta cities...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 03, 2011, 12:18:05 AM
The OH River based crests were lowered...everything else stayed the same...except New Madrid and Tiptonville crests were slightly increased...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 03, 2011, 12:27:41 AM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
OBION COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY UNION CITY TN
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1118 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
OBION COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

FLOOD WARNING.

ALL RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING IN OBION COUNTY
SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTION NOW TO BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE HOMES AND
BUSINESSES IF FLOODING OCCURS.

IF YOU EVACUATE YOUR HOME...PLEASE SECURE YOUR PROPERTY BY CLOSING
AND LOCKING ALL DOORS...TURN OFF THE MAIN POWER TO YOUR HOME...AND
PLACE A WHITE FLAG OR CLOTH ON THE FRONT OF YOUR HOME TO ALERT
RESPONDERS THAT YOU HAVE LEFT.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE REQUESTED TO BEGIN IMMEDIATE VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION:

RESIDENTS OF THE AREA OF HIGHWAY 157...WALNUT LOG...AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...EVEN NUMBERED HOUSES ON WEST HIGHWAY 22 FROM HOLLOWAY ROAD
TO SAMBURG...THE TOWN OF SAMBURG...RESIDENCES IN THE LAKE DRIVE AREA
OF SAMBURG...AND ALL RESIDENCES TO THE OBION COUNTY LINE AT THE
REELFOOT LAKE SPILLWAY.

SHELTERS ARE OPEN AT SECOND BAPTIST CHURCH IN UNION CITY AND SOUTH
FULTON BAPTIST CHURCH. ADDITIONAL SHELTER LOCATIONS WILL BE RELEASED
AS AVAILABLE.


Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1039 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE JACKSON
COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

JACKSON COUNTY AUTHORITIES HAVE ISSUED AN EVACUATION NOTICE FOR RESIDENTS
IN THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS AROUND JACKSONPORT AND DIAZ. THIS
INCLUDES RESIDENTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 BETWEEN HIGHWAY 18 AND
HIGHWAY 37. THE ROADS IN THE AREA WILL SOON BE IMPASSABLE DUE TO
FLOODING ALONG THE WHITE RIVER.

Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BIRDS POINT NEW MADRID FLOODWAY LEVEE
ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND NEW MADRID
COUNTIES.

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT TUESDAY

* AT 1004 PM CDT...THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS REPORTED THAT
THE BIRDS POINT NEW MADRID FLOODWAY HAS BEEN ACTIVATED. FLOODWATERS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE FLOODWAY OVERNIGHT.

THE FLOODWAY HAS BEEN EVACUATED. BECAUSE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OPERATIONS...PLEASE CHECK WITH LOCAL AUTHORITIES IF TRAVELING NEAR
THIS AREA. DO NOT DRIVE AROUND BARRIERS!
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 03, 2011, 01:35:47 AM
They said it would likely take 24 hrs for the new floodplain to fill. Here is a link to Cairo's drop since the blast at 10p.

http://www2.mvr.usace.army.mil/WaterControl/shefgraph-wotem2.cfm?sid=OH111&d=3&dt=S (http://www2.mvr.usace.army.mil/WaterControl/shefgraph-wotem2.cfm?sid=OH111&d=3&dt=S)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 03, 2011, 01:45:24 AM
The levee board is patrolling behind the levee in Tunica County to keep looters out.

The homes in Tunica Cutoff are on stilts and water has been going into them since this afternoon.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 03, 2011, 02:02:33 AM
The end of the rain is near!  ::guitar::   ::yum::

(http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc421/wxcm/clearingline.jpg)


So itll be tuesday afternoon, but I can see the end....   ::bacon::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 03, 2011, 10:03:07 AM
Ha, I know that road, WFayette. The swamp is right behind her house.


Whoa. That is quite a crest.

Marion dropped sand bags and 15 loads of gravel to build up the road. The entrance is usable again. Marion Lake Rd @ Cypress Rd.

(http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc421/wxcm/rivertraceaftergraveldump.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 03, 2011, 10:53:19 AM
I find it disturbing that people are calling this the flood of the century or even a 500-year flood.  I might be wrong about this but aren't we just building higher walls on the bathtub and, hence, creating a situation in which the river gauge readings are going to be inordinately high by not allowing the water to spread across the alluvial plain?

Look at the 1927 flood and this is an event in which the current forecast is for us to exceed this flood on the gauge here in Memphis (1927 crest in Memphis was 45.80 on 04/23/1927).  Now, all up and down the river we have these high levees (such as West Memphis, for example, whose lowest point on the levee is 53 feet from what I read).  So, all up and down the river, we build the levees higher and higher and squeeze the water into a more confined space and, so the readings themselves will obviously go higher the more we compress the water as it just stacks up vertically more than horizontally.  However, we have not changed the volume of water at all.

So, I have a couple of questions that I hope we can shed some light on:

1)  What was flood protection like in 1927 and 1937 and are we constricting the water a great deal more now than we were then?

2)  Is there any way we can compare water volume between these historic events and what we are seeing or expecting now?

3)  If we are just constricting the water more now, doesn't that mean that the real game up and down the river is that you want the place with the highest levee system or floodwall on a given stretch of river (provided the levee doesn't break) the one that remains dry in a 100-year or greater flood?  After all, if the water just keeps piling up, wouldn't it just eventually overtop the lowest levee or break the weakest one as it eventually has to find a release valve?

4)  If the above is correct, doesn't this, in fact, make flooding worse in places like Shelby County that have previously relied almost entirely on elevation as it would seem to artificially increase the water level?

I'm just thinking out loud and hoping for some feedback.  Thanks.

EDIT:  Oh, here's a 1927 inundation map from wiki just for some visual on this:


(http://oi52.tinypic.com/f23mhf.jpg)


Here's a link with of the original (much larger) map:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/1927_LA_Flood_Map.jpg (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/1927_LA_Flood_Map.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 03, 2011, 11:10:01 AM
Its definitely a 100-year flood...so "flood of the century" I think would be applicable...at least in MS River terms (which had little impact to be dealt in last year's 1000-year event).
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 03, 2011, 11:40:27 AM
Looking at the updated Shelby Co. flood map for May 10th, this would suggest that tributaties would severaly back up all the way to the eastern borders. In fact, I'm not sure, but it almost loks like portions of 240 on the north loop would be closed. Perhaps those are bridges with water underneath, not sure.

http://www.staysafeshelby.us/RW_050311.pdf
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 03, 2011, 11:52:09 AM
I haven't seen any support to say the backwater flooding is going to get that far East. I have to think the EMA is operating under "worst-case" circumstances that the Wolf and Loosahatchie are going to remain in flood that long...thus increasing their impacts...though all the forecasts show them falling well below flood stage in the next day (and in fact so far they're not reaching the higher forecast levels anyway).
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 03, 2011, 11:54:29 AM
Quote
DYERSBURG, TN -
(WMC-TV) - Dyersburg Mayor John Holden issued an urgent notice late Tuesday morning, saying residents in parts of the city should evacuate.

With the North Fork of the Forked Deer River forecasted to crest at 28 feet tomorrow night, significant flooding is expected in Southtown, Evansville, the southern end of Cotton Villa at Rosemont Cove, River Ridge Cove, and Delta Pine Ave.

Holden said people living in these areas should begin evacuating. Other areas may be affected as well.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 03, 2011, 12:05:45 PM
Yeah I'm just referring to the map suggestion that backwater flooding would be much more extensive on this version. I have seen the wolf river flood the ball fields off 240 and Warford. I could see a record crest come perilously close to 240.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 03, 2011, 12:13:49 PM
The Commercial Appeal has posted some great images from the flood of 1927 and 1937 out of their (and other) archives...

http://www.commercialappeal.com/photos/galleries/great-flood-1927-and-record-flood-1937/
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 03, 2011, 12:15:35 PM
Yeah I'm just referring to the map suggestion that backwater flooding would be much more extensive on this version. I have seen the wolf river flood the ball fields off 240 and Warford. I could see a record crest come perilously close to 240.

I actually just drove through that area, and it looks like in a few places it may be close... Water looked to be 4-5 feet below road level beside the west bound lanes along that strech by the baseball fields.  Just a rough estimation though while driving by at 70 MPH.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 03, 2011, 12:33:52 PM
Some photos from Mud Island, taken today at around 43.5 ft.

Island Place at Island Drive (behind my apartment)
(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/100_0010.jpg)

Greenbelt Park (notice the 45 ft mark for the previous crest estimate)
(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/100_0012.jpg)

Parking lot near Harbor Town
(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/100_0018.jpg)

The only area where I would be concerned about the river coming close to the Island Drive... seems like it would have to get over 50 ft.  Hard to tell in the pic, but the road is just about even with the walkway.
(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/100_0022.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bonzomemphis on May 03, 2011, 01:10:22 PM
Some photos from Mud Island, taken today at around 43.5 ft.


Great pics. I went down to the island yesterday and drove up and down it. It's very, very high (certainly as high as I've ever seen it)...but I honestly expected it to be a bit worse just eyeballing it. I agree with you - I will be surprised if it gets up to the street and any major closures have to take place.

One thing that really jumped out to me in the CA's photo gallery of the floods earlier in the 20th century was the following caption:

"Before it was confined by levees, the Mississippi overflow from the runoff of 31 states regularly created a lake almost as large as Ireland."

 ::wow::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: ChrisPC on May 03, 2011, 01:11:00 PM
I find it disturbing that people are calling this the flood of the century or even a 500-year flood.  I might be wrong about this but aren't we just building higher walls on the bathtub...


Actually, we've made the river deeper, too. It's at sea level all the way to just south of Natchez. It's even deeper than that until Baton Rouge. They tried to extend that further, but rocks just north of Baton Rouge won't allow it.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 03, 2011, 01:12:41 PM
Its definitely a 100-year flood...so "flood of the century" I think would be applicable...at least in MS River terms (which had little impact to be dealt in last year's 1000-year event).



Actually, we've made the river deeper, too. It's at sea level all the way to just south of Natchez. It's even deeper than that until Baton Rouge. They tried to extend that further, but rocks just north of Baton Rouge won't allow it.

I guess I'm a little confused.  If 1927, 1937, and present are all 100 year floods...I mean, is this even right?  Secondly, if the water is constrained within the modern system of levees and floodwalls, doesn't that mean that the water would be higher than it is now if we had the same amount of water volume?

Either I'm wrong about something or :

1)  we've had an anamolous number of 100-year floods within the last 100 (3) or
2) 100-year flood doesn't actually mean once in 100 years or
3) the historical reference events are much more rare than 100 year floods or
4)  our modern reference point for 100-year flood takes only gauge readings and ignores the effects of constraining the water to the immediate riverfront areas

I'm a little bit confused because I can see that the 1927 flood inundated so much area that I have to think that there was a lot of water volume that, if it were to happen today, would still be constrained within the system of levees and floodwalls and the readings on the river would be much higher...I don't know...maybe I've lost the forest for the trees on this one or the trees for the forest...not sure.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 03, 2011, 01:22:51 PM
Some photos from Mud Island, taken today at around 43.5 ft.



I was just down there.  It sounds like you used to live in my old complex or one of the ones adjacent to it.  I lived in Island Park.  I had to run down to a client about a mile and a half from the back entrance to Mud Island, so I thought I would take a look.  I immediately noticed that the water coming in on the backside entrance on the south side of the road...which was very high.  I then noticed that road closure that you took a picture of.  Then, the immense amount of flood tourists and, of course, the water.  I lived there for 4 years and saw it in flood stage three times, I believe, but nothing like that.  I don't believe I ever saw it cover the second tier of the park entirely.  It was pretty amazing that it looked to be about 5 feet deep on the second tier parking lot just on the far north end of the island where I lived.  And the trees on the riverfront on the first tier were so deep in the water...pretty amazing stuff.  

It appeared to me without measuring that there's about 6-8 feet of vertical clearance before the north end of Island Drive and those apartments start getting some flooding.  

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: ChrisPC on May 03, 2011, 01:27:03 PM
The same thing was asked during the floods here last year. "100-year flood" simply means there's a 1 in 100 chance of it happening. Since it's totally random, it can happen more often.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 03, 2011, 03:07:34 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
OBION COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY UNION CITY TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
242 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE OBION
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY UNION CITY TENNESSEE.

...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF RIVES...

ALL RESIDENTS OF THE TOWN OF RIVES IN OBION COUNTY SHOULD TAKE
ACTION NOW TO BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE HOMES AND BUSINESSES IF
FLOODING OCCURS.

...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF OBION...

ALL RESIDENTS OF THE TOWN OF OBION IN OBION COUNTY SHOULD TAKE
ACTION NOW TO BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE HOMES AND BUSINESSES IF
FLOODING OCCURS. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE SUGGESTED IN THE TOWN
OF OBION FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS: OBION AVENUE...TROY
AVENUE...FIRST STREET TO ELEVENTH STREET...WEST MAIN STREET FROM
FOURTEENTH TO FIFTEENTH STREET...AND HURT STREET FROM BROADWAY TO
TROY ROAD.

.RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...

IF YOU EVACUATE YOUR HOME...PLEASE SECURE YOUR PROPERTY BY CLOSING
AND LOCKING ALL DOORS...TURN OFF THE MAIN POWER TO YOUR HOME...AND
PLACE A WHITE FLAG OR CLOTH ON THE FRONT DOOR OF YOUR HOME TO
ALERT RESPONDERS THAT YOU HAVE LEFT.

FLOODING IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN RIVES AND OBION WITH POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL RISE IN FLOOD WATERS.

A SHELTER IS OPEN AT SECOND BAPTIST CHURCH IN UNION CITY. ADDITIONAL
SHELTER LOCATIONS WILL BE RELEASED AS AVAILABLE.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
MAYOR HOLDEN OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
223 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE MAYOR
HOLDEN OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE.

URGENT NOTICE....FLOOD WARNING AND EVACUATION NOTICE FROM THE
CITY OF DYERSBURG.

MAY 03, 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FOR
THE NORTH FORK OF THE FORKED DEER RIVER AT DYERSBURG.

THE CITY OF DYERSBURG IS RECOMMENDING EVACUATIONS IN SOUTHTOWN,
EVANSVILLE, THE SOUTHERN END OF COTTON VILLA AT ROSEMONT
COVE...RIVER RIDGE COVE AND DELTA PINE AVE AT THIS TIME. OTHER
AREAS MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 03, 2011, 04:01:35 PM
I emailed my ACoE friend yesterday to ask him how deep the MS River is (on thing Ive always wondered). I referenced the gauge and how I knew that was not the depth, because in the summertime, the reading on the gauge is sometimes negative. Here is the response I got from him. Very interesting stuff:

The river bottom is not flat so the depth varies depending on where you are.
The gauge is based on some reference plane usually and is arbitrary. All they need to know is at what point on the gauge something floods.

There are millions of tons of sand and sediment that move down the river every day so the depth is constantly changing as sediment moves and is deposited. The Corps of Engineers maintains a 9 foot deep channel so many feet wide year round. The problem areas are surveyed on a regular basis to determine the depth at a given point on the gauge and then they will have an idea of what it will be in lower water. The depth really doesn't matter otherwise. The thing that matters is how high the water will be on the surrounding land in flood stage. I have no idea what the depth is at zero other than they will be maintaining a 9 foot deep channel. In low water the width of the channel will be reduced.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 03, 2011, 04:35:53 PM
Looks like the effects of the Bird's Point levee blow are being felt all the way down to Memphis.   The river has trended ever so slightly down the last few hours. I imagine that will change when they blow the release levees.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 03, 2011, 04:45:38 PM
Looks like the effects of the Bird's Point levee blow are being felt all the way down to Memphis.   The river has trended ever so slightly down the last few hours. I imagine that will change when they blow the release levees.

Interesting to see that...don't know if its Bird's Point related though. Some upstream locations are still rising...though most of them are running below forecast now (some well below)...those updated high crests yesterday don't look as certain to me now...though I don't know if that impacts Memphis in the end. Osceola like Memphis is still running close to forecast.

Also note the Wolf@Germantown is falling considerable and doesn't look like it will touch flood stage...much less the 25.0 they've been going with. I imagine they cancel the warning there soon. That should be further good news for East parts of the County. Loosahatchie@Arlington is in flood but also doesn't look as if it will reach its forecast.

Who knows...perhaps LMRFC went crazy with their forecasts yesterday and we won't end up seeing those bear out. We'll hope at least

EDIT...here is a new EMA Map...they've taken out the flooding zones for the East half of Shelby...
(http://memphisflood.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/FloodMap0503.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Jason M on May 03, 2011, 05:26:46 PM
Couple images from the Obion river area between Milan and Bradford on highway 45E
(http://i51.tinypic.com/11vjqpw.jpg)(http://i56.tinypic.com/vq37z5.jpg)

Doesn't need to rise much more to close the highway down completely...cant even make out where the actual river is looking at the shot from the bridge.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 03, 2011, 05:56:50 PM
For those in Tipton County...

The Covington Leader is running a page with lots of updates. Included is a link to a map of projected flood areas from Tipton County officials that is being updated daily...
http://www.covingtonleader.com/pages/flood
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 03, 2011, 05:58:27 PM
I got some pictures inside of Casino Center in front of Horseshoe today.  The water is already coming over the raised up land in many places.  This will likely be the last I see of this area (dry) until the river lowers.  You will also see the water wall they have been constructing.

(http://i.imgur.com/a49A0.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/O92K1.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/TeLck.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/2yh0w.jpg)

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 03, 2011, 06:23:22 PM
NASA images of Birds Point Levee Effects...

Before...
(http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50442/missrv_amo_2011119.jpg)

After...
(http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50442/missrv_amo_2011123.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Jason M on May 03, 2011, 06:36:07 PM
Wow... that big a difference just from breaching one levee...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Jason M on May 03, 2011, 08:32:18 PM
Haven't been back out yet, but according to the TDOT smartmap highway 45E north of Milan is closed due to flooding at the Obion river. Also highway 77 between Milan and Trenton is flooded again also...not a good night for heading north from Jackson unless you know the back roads in this area. I will head back out in the morning and get more accurate info for anyone's benefit that might need to head up this way.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 03, 2011, 09:43:52 PM
New Madrid is rising again and Osceola never stopped. Memphis seems about as forecast.

The updated forecasts seem pretty accurate to me. If they hadn't risen the crests we would be significantly above forecast.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 03, 2011, 10:18:22 PM
http://www.facebook.com/pages/DeSoto-County-Sheriffs-Department/202274436457942 (http://www.facebook.com/pages/DeSoto-County-Sheriffs-Department/202274436457942)

The DeSoto County Sheriffs Dept has excellent flooding photos in one of their albums. They have added a bunch of casino shots from today, but they also have quite shocking photos from April 27/28. I knew Tunica/north Coahoma was flooding bad but wow...

(http://i201.photobucket.com/albums/aa218/HarlequhnBoy/218378_212767338741985_202274436457942_843906_3822051_o.jpg)
(http://i201.photobucket.com/albums/aa218/HarlequhnBoy/210376_212766122075440_202274436457942_843898_2346423_o.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 04, 2011, 09:05:35 AM
They ran out of explosives for blowing the exit hole in the New Madrid floodway.  The conspiracy theorists are going to have a field day with this one. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 04, 2011, 09:40:28 AM
They ran out of explosives for blowing the exit hole in the New Madrid floodway.  The conspiracy theorists are going to have a field day with this one. 

What??? How do you run out of explosives? They should be able to get/make more.  I guess the good news is this should lower crests a little downstream as a large chunk of the water is now sitting in the Bird's Point-New Madrid Lake.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2011, 10:29:40 AM
Meh..just read that the blast for today is just slightly delayed due to delivery of the slurry mixture. Army Corps said it shouldnt make a difference in the overall plan. The second blast yesterday was near New Madrid, which means that the floodway is already spilling into the MS River. The 3rd and delayed blast will open up another hole directly into the river in another position just to the northeast of New Madrid.  When asked how long water would be in the floodway...Army Corps responded with "late summer or early fall". Quite sad for those farmers.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 04, 2011, 11:35:39 AM
Meh..just read that the blast for today is just slightly delayed due to delivery of the slurry mixture. Army Corps said it shouldnt make a difference in the overall plan. The second blast yesterday was near New Madrid, which means that the floodway is already spilling into the MS River. The 3rd and delayed blast will open up another hole directly into the river in another position just to the northeast of New Madrid.  When asked how long water would be in the floodway...Army Corps responded with "late summer or early fall". Quite sad for those farmers.

Not in their overall plan, no...but, by not detonating the exit hole on time, they are allowing water to pool higher.  According to the NWS discussion, water in the floodway would be about a foot higher than expected.  

This doesn't sound like much but one foot of vertical elevation in such a relatively flat area can make a huge difference.  For instance, a lot of people in that area have probably built their structures (homes, barns, etc.) on a slightly elevated foundation so that they would not sustain flood damage.  It is my understanding that they had told the people living there that the floodway would be between x and y feet deep, so I could see that one foot might make a difference to people.  Hopefully, that's not the case, but I do think it's a pretty big mistake.  Why not have a little extra explosive on hand anyway considering the situation?  

I'm not really defending the people who work the land there in that they knew the risks beforehand and they should have taken steps to prepare and a foot shouldn't make a difference, but I can't see any reason for the Corps of Engineers to take all reasonable measures possible to not exacerbate a bad situation and a decision that was, to put it mildly, very unpopular.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 04, 2011, 11:42:42 AM
What??? How do you run out of explosives? They should be able to get/make more.  I guess the good news is this should lower crests a little downstream as a large chunk of the water is now sitting in the Bird's Point-New Madrid Lake.

They were told they lived in a floodway, not a lake.  You can't let it pool.  They need to stick to their word and blow the exit hole and let us get what we have coming to us.  Fair is fair.  They blew the levee to save upstream locations and kept to their word by doing so.  Now, they have to finish the job and stick with the plan.  I'm not sure, but I think I'd say the same thing if I had a home/property in jeopardy down here. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2011, 11:43:57 AM
Yeah I'm no expert, but I would agree with you on the logistical aspect of having EVERYTHING in place to pull off such a monumental operation. I would think that yes..water would pool higher for a longer period of time for the NM floodway. How would this affect downstream crests? I still think it has no bearing. That water will empty back into the river. Delaying the 3rd break may affect the timing of the crest to me, not the height. Just my under-educated ::twocents::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 04, 2011, 11:52:30 AM
Here is the official response on the questions about upstream levee breaches. The first quote is my question, the second quote is the answer.

Quote
I have heard from several different sources that a levee breach to the north does not help downstream because the same volume of water has to flow downstream regardless. Is there an official resource where I can read about this? Or can you confirm this information from an ACE perspective? Thanks.



Quote
The operation of the floodway does provide the benefit of lower stages on the Lower Mississippi River just upstream of New Madrid, the city of Cairo, the Upper Mississippi River, and the Lower Ohio River. Use of the floodway is to maintain the integrity of the Mississippi River & Tributaries levee system, and to benefit communities in the area. There is a short-term benefit in stage immediately downstream of New Madrid, but ultimately, crest stages downstream of New Madrid will not be significantly affected.
Memphis District Corps of Engineers
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2011, 11:56:41 AM
BTW- while it is sobering to see the flooded homes and ag land, one must know the risks of living within that particular flood plain. My guess is, depeneding on how long the land has been owned and assuming its been farmed, the break even has already been met on such rich soil that is extremely well suited for crops.

AND...the feds are reimbursing the floodway victims for ALL losses...including loss of productivity.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 04, 2011, 12:12:38 PM
This flood has caused me to learn so much about the river and the river valley.  I'm sure that many of you took for granted what I learned here but I'll risk looking ignorant and share anyway.  For instance, remember that laughable map in the 2012 or some other thread that showed Memphis sitting on the ocean?

Well, while it's still laughable, I do now understand what their theory is.  Basically, the entire alleuvial plain (known as the Mississippi Embayment or, in common parlance, the Mississippi Delta) was open ocean (or really a large bay or sea coming off the Gulf of Mexico) due to a partial (but eventually failed) continental rift.  This rift fracture is still there in the crust but is buried under tons of sediment that was deposited over the rift area when it was an active delta region where the Mississippi dumps into the Gulf of Mexico.  This weak spot in the earth's crust is now known as the (you guessed it) New Madrid Fault. Here is an image which captures the best estimations by scientists of the Gulf coastline over time:

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1c/SE-USshoreline.svg/726px-SE-USshoreline.svg.png)

Basically, the Mississippi deposited sediment through an active delta region which deposited soil and sediment at the mouth of the river over time.  This filled in the area which had rifted apart with soils and sediments.  As the land filled in, the active delta region advanced further and further south from where it once was in southeast Missorri until today where it is in southeast Louisiana (it actually regressed in recent years due to Katrina destroying much of the newer land created). The region which was filled in and is no longer a true active river delta (although it is commonly called such) is the Mississippi embayment.


And here is a topo map of the embayment  (by the way, prior to the rift, the Ouchaita, Boston, and Ozark mountains and plateau were part of a the greater Appalachian range and, if you'll notice look closely, you'll see that Memphis sits on a bluff that is part of that chain so we do live in the mountains, after all  ;D ) :

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b4/Mississippi_Embayment_relief_map_2.svg/311px-Mississippi_Embayment_relief_map_2.svg.png)

As for the 2012 theory that gives Memphis its much coveted and joked about ocean-effect snow..they seem to think that earthquakes will occur that will cause subsidence and liquefication of the soil or something like that....which makes for an interesting theory but hardly realistic.  If something that drastic were to occur...I doubt many of us Memphians would still be around to discuss it anyway.   ???

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on May 04, 2011, 12:28:18 PM
Just thinking about what you said... an interesting feature in eastern Arkansas (shown on the map) is Crowley's Ridge.  We were just driving through there a month ago, and I was thinking how there was this narrow range of hills that looks like the hills of Tennessee rising up from the alluvial plain in eastern Arkansas.

Thinking of it in terms of the ancient sea that is theorized to have come up through there, I wonder if Crowley's Ridge was something like a line of barrier islands off the "coast" of the Ozark Plateau?

Fascinating for sure.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2011, 12:38:20 PM
Just happened to see TWC a few minutes ago (I rarely watch). They said MS river would crest at 46.5 on Friday morning, only causing moderate flooding. Not sure where they get their info from, as it appears wrong on creat estimates and crest day.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Eric on May 04, 2011, 01:43:54 PM
Man...not only are ya'll fightin' the waters, now you gotta fight the gators.  Found this on Twitter taken at Horseshoe Lake in Dyer Co. :

(http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpic/photos/full/291167385.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAJF3XCCKACR3QDMOA&Expires=1304535550&Signature=hWvKMzztgbB0b7VcsEmt%2BXgVg4s%3D)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on May 04, 2011, 01:51:55 PM
 ::wow::

Didn't know that gators ever came that far north...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mooncar on May 04, 2011, 02:09:14 PM
I know there is one swimming around in the canals of Horseshoe Lake in Arkansas. Just looked at the pics.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2011, 02:21:06 PM
::wow::

Didn't know that gators ever came that far north...

Quote
When you think of wildlife in downtown Memphis, you think of Beale Street. You may want to start thinking about McKellar Lake.

Omar Davis was bass fishing Sunday when he saw something more interesting..an alligator. Even park rangers were surprised. "To see one in Tennessee of course if very unique," says ranger David England.

England told us there are alligators in McKellar Lake, at least two of them. He says one is roughly 4-5 feet in length the other is bigger at 6-7 feet. He can't say for sure where they came from but he says there are theories, "down in Florida and the Gulf Coast they're fairly common and evidently now they are migrating up the Mississippi River."

We took a trek through T.O. Fuller State Park. We found deer tracks, and what looked like raccoon tracks, but no alligators. We thought we spotted one..turned out it was just a tire. It's probably better we didn't see any gators. "We're not advocating that anybody goes out and tries to approach these animals," says England, "any wild animal because there is some danger involved.

England says alligators are not typically aggressive as long as they're left alone. If the idea of an alligator bite isn't enough to keep you away from the reptiles consider this...alligators are a protected species in Tennessee so it's illegal to harass them.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 04, 2011, 03:24:21 PM
Just thinking about what you said... an interesting feature in eastern Arkansas (shown on the map) is Crowley's Ridge.  We were just driving through there a month ago, and I was thinking how there was this narrow range of hills that looks like the hills of Tennessee rising up from the alluvial plain in eastern Arkansas.

Thinking of it in terms of the ancient sea that is theorized to have come up through there, I wonder if Crowley's Ridge was something like a line of barrier islands off the "coast" of the Ozark Plateau?

Fascinating for sure.

I saw that and my first thought was that it was probably a spot where the rift initially tore at one side and then at the other side leaving it as essentially a mountainous island ridge (not unlike most islands in the Pacific) in the middle of the ocean.  According to scientists, these mountains were once quite high but erosion was very quick be geological standards in our area.  Anyway, I think the answer is yes in that they were much live barrier islands. 

Now, I'd have to look back and compare the periods when this all occurred for the climatic data but I imagine that western Tennessee was one of the snowier places on the planet if the climate was anywhere close to ours due to the proximity of the ocean, the number of days in winter with a cold northwest flow prevailing, the quick availability of cold, continental air from that direction , relative warmth of the water, and high orographic lifting due to the rapid rise from sea level to perhaps 1,000 feet elevation or better (guesstimated based on erosion of the estimates of higher peaks in AR/MO).  It would be nothing like what the Sea of Japan does today to the mountains surrounding Nagono but it would have been quite significant. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 04, 2011, 03:32:59 PM
Heads-up to any of you traveling west:

I-40 in Arkansas is closed due to flooding coming over the highway near the White River around mile marker 202...and the detour is quite significant.

Quote
Westbound traffic will detour at Brinkley and be directed on Highway 49 north to Fair Oaks, then Highway 64 west to Bald Knob and then Highway 67 south to Little Rock. Eastbound traffic will exit at Hazen and be directed to Highway 63 to Stuttgart, Highway 165 to DeWitt, Highway 1 to Marvell. At Marvell, motorists can take Highway 49 north to Brinkley, Highway 1 to Forrest City or  Highway 49 to Helena.
Both detours mean more than 100 miles of travel on non-Interstate highways, and each route includes two-lane roads.
It is impossible to project when lanes will reopen, AHTD said.
For more information on flooded highways visit www.arkansashighways.com and go to “Flood Information.”


http://www.thetrucker.com/News/Stories/2011/5/4/TRAFFICALERTFloodingclosesI-40ineastArkansas.aspx (http://www.thetrucker.com/News/Stories/2011/5/4/TRAFFICALERTFloodingclosesI-40ineastArkansas.aspx)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on May 04, 2011, 03:36:34 PM
I saw that and my first thought was that it was probably a spot where the rift initially tore at one side and then at the other side leaving it as essentially a mountainous island ridge (not unlike most islands in the Pacific) in the middle of the ocean.  According to scientists, these mountains were once quite high but erosion was very quick be geological standards in our area.  Anyway, I think the answer is yes in that they were much live barrier islands. 

Now, I'd have to look back and compare the periods when this all occurred for the climatic data but I imagine that western Tennessee was one of the snowier places on the planet if the climate was anywhere close to ours due to the proximity of the ocean, the number of days in winter with a cold northwest flow prevailing, the quick availability of cold, continental air from that direction , relative warmth of the water, and high orographic lifting due to the rapid rise from sea level to perhaps 1,000 feet elevation or better (guesstimated based on erosion of the estimates of higher peaks in AR/MO).  It would be nothing like what the Sea of Japan does today to the mountains surrounding Nagono but it would have been quite significant. 

Here's another point of interest I came across recently when I was reading about Crowley's Ridge (which was before the flooding situation but more when I was reading up on the local geology in association with recent seismic activity in Arkansas).  Apparently, the native plants and wildlife on Crowley's Ridge are more in sync with wildlife in the hills of Tennessee than wildlife in the Ozarks... which are a lot closer.  I found that to be interesting.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: InMemphis on May 04, 2011, 03:40:34 PM
Will snakes be a big issue?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 04, 2011, 03:40:42 PM
I think it would be better just avoiding AR until this resolves...
(http://static.ow.ly/photos/original/b9cb.gif)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 04, 2011, 03:51:03 PM
Here's another point of interest I came across recently when I was reading about Crowley's Ridge (which was before the flooding situation but more when I was reading up on the local geology in association with recent seismic activity in Arkansas).  Apparently, the native plants and wildlife on Crowley's Ridge are more in sync with wildlife in the hills of Tennessee than wildlife in the Ozarks... which are a lot closer.  I found that to be interesting.

Very, very interesting.  Thanks for sharing.  I'd think the area west of the ridge was filled in by the Arkansas River in large part.  
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 04, 2011, 03:53:16 PM
I think it would be better just avoiding AR until this resolves...



Wow...that's obscene.  I'm guessing the more direct detours are also through flooded areas because there are some roads of equivalent standards that are closer to I-40.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Jason M on May 04, 2011, 03:54:39 PM
Being that I-40 is possibly the most travelled road in the nation, that will cause a lot of problems for many people...especially companies that rely on 18-wheelers for timely delivery of goods. Those off-interstate roads in arkansas especially would be tricky for a truck driver.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 04, 2011, 03:55:43 PM
Looks like the Memphis gauge has stalled for now...between 44.46 and 44.48 feet this afternoon. Running a bit below forecast now (expected to be 45.0 at 7 PM Tonight...probably won't be hit). Not sure if this is Bird's Point related or something else (possibly just random). Obviously it will begin rising again soon...though the rates of increase will be slowing over time as we get closer to crest...as would be expected.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 04, 2011, 04:00:50 PM
Looks like the Memphis gauge has stalled for now...between 44.46 and 44.48 feet this afternoon. Running a bit below forecast now (expected to be 45.0 at 7 PM Tonight...probably won't be hit). Not sure if this is Bird's Point related or something else (possibly just random). Obviously it will begin rising again soon...though the rates of increase will be slowing over time as we get closer to crest...as would be expected.

It stalled the other day but, as long as that water keeps pooling up in the New Madrid Floodway, that will mean more water that is being dammed up instead of flowing down river, so I'd think that would have an effect since all of that water volume has been temporarily "taken out" of the system.  The floodway diverts about 20% of the overall flow and it has only one exit for the moment so I'm guessing that 10% of the water is being held up and awaiting its release.  It will be interesting to see if we get a spike after the second hole is blown (I believe we will).  Also, it could just be that the gauge is not reading again.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 04, 2011, 06:49:36 PM
I think it would be better just avoiding AR until this resolves...
(http://static.ow.ly/photos/original/b9cb.gif)


Wow!  Glad I saw this!  I have a trip to AR in the morning.  Looks like I will be taking the scenic route.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 04, 2011, 07:30:40 PM
They are heightening some of the levees in NW MS. Vicksburg is building a special flood wall.

It seems like some of the worst effects below MO from this will be felt outside of W TN... in AR and MS.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 04, 2011, 07:36:11 PM
This is a good group to see some of the effects in MS. They're quite a few evacuations going on..

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Mississippi-Yazoo-Backwater-Flood-Updates-created-May-3-2011/117655291651095?ref=ts (http://www.facebook.com/pages/Mississippi-Yazoo-Backwater-Flood-Updates-created-May-3-2011/117655291651095?ref=ts)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 04, 2011, 09:01:53 PM
They are heightening some of the levees in NW MS. Vicksburg is building a special flood wall.

It seems like some of the worst effects below MO from this will be felt outside of W TN... in AR and MS.

Like Memphis, the cities of Vicksburg and Natchez are elevated and don't really require a floodwall except to protect the newly-developed areas and those operations that are directly on the riverfront.

The only reason Memphis is a major or mid-major city in the United States is because of its enviable position that is right on the Mississippi River but elevated on a bluff that is basically flood-proof.  While there are a few areas that have been developed in the flood plain in the Memphis area, they are amazingly quite limited and the core of the city is basically immune to flooding from the river itself.  Anyway, all of us are probably here because of this.  West Memphis, on the other hand, would not probably even exist to the extent it does without the more recent innovation of the levee system.  If you'll notice, even the small cities along the river in the area (like Dyersburg) are all on the Tennessee side of the river due to the elevation. If you look back at the topo map I posted earlier, the alluvial plain itself is basically devoid of meaningful cities (except the one mentioned above).  The cities in the plain usually have geographic features that protect it from flooding or are offshoots of elevated cities that only took root after the more modern levee system was completed in the 20th century.

Look at eastern Arkansas cities:

Jonesboro (sits atop Crowley's Ridge which we were speaking of a few posts back)
Blytheville (not sure, but I think it's elevated)
Wynne (on Crowley's Ridge, as well)
Forrest City (also on Crowley's Ridge)
Pine Bluff (it's in the name)
Helena-West Helena (also on Crowley's Ridge)


Even in Mississippi, the major cities sit at a protected elevation:

Natchez- sits on a bluff almost 150' above the river (has astonishing views of the river well below)
Vicksburg- also elevated and was one of the primary refugee destinations for the 1927 flood along with Memphis

Greenville and Greenwood might be exceptions (not sure on this)

But...the locations of the larger communities are not an accident.  While New Orleans is in a terrible location, the real estate at the confluence of the MS River and the GOM is understandably premium and the city itself is in an astonishingly great location when you look at the alternatives that are reasonably close to the GOM along the river.  I'll put it this way...further south would not have been an option and it was necessary to have the port very close to the end because, in the pre-steamboat era, people use to float wooden cargo boats down the river to New Orleans where it could be picked up by ocean-going sailing ships.  The wooden cargo boats, called flatboats (I think), were dismantled in New Orleans.  Obviously, these boats were cheaply made, so I have to think they were probably dangerous.  The danger wasn't over when they got to New Orleans, either.  The people who operated these early cargo vessels would sell their cargo in New Orleans and walk back to home where they would eventually come back with a new load.  One of the principal roads (basically a trail) used to get back was the Natchez Trace.  Since the cargo boat workers were loaded down with money and taking it home, the Natchez Trace became a very dangerous road due to the number of thieves that would lay in wait for them to come up the Trace with pockets full of money.  A lot of people got killed this way.

Oops....I rambled quite a bit but I'll post it
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2011, 09:33:18 PM
Its hypothesized that the Ohio River ran east and MS west of Crowleys Ridge at one time before both rivers changed courses to the present meeting place at Cairo. CR would have been an island between the 2 rivers and fossils found only on the ridge (ie mastadons) would be the result of animals travelling on the ridge between the 2 rivers. As TS pointed out, the flora and fauna is much more similar to the Apps than the Delta and Ozarks, making it a rarity west of the MS. Its also believed that it is rising in elevation due to the "plate" shift within the New Madrid Fault Zone. Whatever it is, it was a godsend in 1927/1937 for flood victims in the area who sought the only high ground bewtween Memphis and the Ozarks. The ridge nearly dumps into the MS River at Helena, which is where it was believed that originally, the Ohio and MS met at one time.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: ChrisPC on May 04, 2011, 10:01:14 PM
Like Memphis, the cities of Vicksburg and Natchez are elevated and don't really require a floodwall except to protect the newly-developed areas and those operations that are directly on the riverfront.

Even in Mississippi, the major cities sit at a protected elevation:

Natchez- sits on a bluff almost 150' above the river (has astonishing views of the river well below)
Vicksburg- also elevated and was one of the primary refugee destinations for the 1927 flood along with Memphis

Greenville and Greenwood might be exceptions (not sure on this)


I'm originally from Mississippi; in fact, my wife actually grew up next to the Yazoo. Her friends and family on Facebook have been posting flood updates. Apparently, the Yazoo has no floodgates, and is now backing up into the lower MS Delta.  ::faint::

Greenwood is directly on the Yazoo. It has levees, but they're relatively small. Greenville is on an oxbow lake (Lake Ferguson) on the Mississippi. It has bigger levees, but those will probably be topped and the old downtown will flood.

FWIW, Greenville was economically decimated in the 1927 flood, much like New Orleans in Katrina. It's never been the same, and many parts of it are like a ghost town today. This crest is forecast to be only a foot lower than '27.  :(
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: PigsEye on May 04, 2011, 10:17:34 PM
Its hypothesized that the Ohio River ran east and MS west of Crowleys Ridge at one time before both rivers changed courses to the present meeting place at Cairo. CR would have been an island between the 2 rivers and fossils found only on the ridge (ie mastadons) would be the result of animals travelling on the ridge between the 2 rivers. As TS pointed out, the flora and fauna is much more similar to the Apps than the Delta and Ozarks, making it a rarity west of the MS. Its also believed that it is rising in elevation due to the "plate" shift within the New Madrid Fault Zone. Whatever it is, it was a godsend in 1927/1937 for flood victims in the area who sought the only high ground bewtween Memphis and the Ozarks. The ridge nearly dumps into the MS River at Helena, which is where it was believed that originally, the Ohio and MS met at one time.

I've been trying to register so I could post this same thing.  In high school, we did a 6 week camping trip spending time in the 6 natural divisions of Arkansas.  While we were in Wynne, visited with Larry Loeman (sp?) - you old guys may remember him from the show Real People.  He was employed by the state of Arkansas at that time and they wanted to fire him for his long hair and porkchop sideburns.  He's considered one of the authorities on Crowley's Ridge.  The ridge is formed from loess (wind-blown dust, in this case generated from rocks that were crushed by glaciers.)  The interesting thing about the loess on Crowley's Ridge is that it most resembles loess that is found in China, so there is some postulation that either the loess there and Arkansas originated in the same place.

If you look at the topo maps, you'll notice that there is a gap in the Ridge at Marianna.  One of the rivers cut through there at one time.  Off the top of my head, I think it's called the Marianna cut.

If you want to hunt for fossils from the era when the area was ocean floor, go to Levasque outside Wynne.  There's a creek that cuts into the base and exposes rocks there.  In the 45 minutes or so we spent there, 6 shark teeth were found.

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: PigsEye on May 04, 2011, 10:25:00 PM
Back to the flood, my grandparents lived in Helena in both 27 and 37 and have photos they took at the time of the floods.  I'll be at my parents for Mother's Day and will see if I can find them to scan them.

I eat dinner with a 90 year old gentleman every Tuesday night.  Last night I asked him about the floods.  He lived in Hot Springs in 37 but lived in Biscoe in 27.  Biscoe is on the Cache River.  He said the last train to come through town brought typhoid shots and they made everyone get a shot.  They had gone into DeVall's Bluff to buy groceries before the store was flooded.  By the time the water reached it's crest, it was into the second floor of the grocery store.  He said they stayed at the farm until they ran out of supplies.  Fortunately it was on a little rise.  At that point, they loaded into a boat and headed out.  Didn't reach dry land in town until on main street in Brinkley.  That's about 15 miles.

As an aside, and it may have already been mentioned and I missed it, Rising Tide by John Barry is a good history of the flood of 1927.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 04, 2011, 10:33:44 PM
Like Memphis, the cities of Vicksburg and Natchez are elevated and don't really require a floodwall except to protect the newly-developed areas and those operations that are directly on the riverfront.


Look at eastern Arkansas cities:

Jonesboro (sits atop Crowley's Ridge which we were speaking of a few posts back)
Blytheville (not sure, but I think it's elevated)
Wynne (on Crowley's Ridge, as well)
Forrest City (also on Crowley's Ridge)
Pine Bluff (it's in the name)
Helena-West Helena (also on Crowley's Ridge)


Even in Mississippi, the major cities sit at a protected elevation:

Natchez- sits on a bluff almost 150' above the river (has astonishing views of the river well below)
Vicksburg- also elevated and was one of the primary refugee destinations for the 1927 flood along with Memphis

Greenville and Greenwood might be exceptions (not sure on this)



I'm pretty familiar with the geography of the Delta. I grew up there and have family in all those towns, minus Natchez. I've traveled most of western MS pretty extensively.

Vicksburg is indeed building an emergency flood wall to protect newer developments. Greenville is at a low elevation and requires the levees for protection. There are plenty of other Delta towns that are going to be inundated and staggering farm losses are going to occur (see Haley Barbour's press conference today). This is the Corps' latest flood map for the south Delta. Potential breaches are not taken into account.
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/jan/Weather_Events/Hydro/MS_River/MS_River_C3.png)



Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 04, 2011, 10:40:34 PM
Also, Tiptonville broke its all time record crest this evening.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2011, 10:44:57 PM
Back to the flood, my grandparents lived in Helena in both 27 and 37 and have photos they took at the time of the floods.  I'll be at my parents for Mother's Day and will see if I can find them to scan them.

I eat dinner with a 90 year old gentleman every Tuesday night.  Last night I asked him about the floods.  He lived in Hot Springs in 37 but lived in Biscoe in 27.  Biscoe is on the Cache River.  He said the last train to come through town brought typhoid shots and they made everyone get a shot.  They had gone into DeVall's Bluff to buy groceries before the store was flooded.  By the time the water reached it's crest, it was into the second floor of the grocery store.  He said they stayed at the farm until they ran out of supplies.  Fortunately it was on a little rise.  At that point, they loaded into a boat and headed out.  Didn't reach dry land in town until on main street in Brinkley.  That's about 15 miles.

As an aside, and it may have already been mentioned and I missed it, Rising Tide by John Barry is a good history of the flood of 1927.

Welcome to the forum, PigsEye! Thanks for your input. I understand the river at Memphis during the '37 flood was 3.5 miles wide, and in some places in MS, nearly 30-40 miles wide. Amazing stuff. The corps' activity of '27 really salvaged the entire MS valley from Cario to NOLA. This flood will test the system for sure.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 04, 2011, 10:56:08 PM
One has to question what impact levees have on nature's design.  While I know they are critical in protecting cities, its hard to see their longer term impact on a river.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2011, 11:05:38 PM
One has to question what impact levees have on nature's design.  While I know they are critical in protecting cities, its hard to see their longer term impact on a river.

Great point bug. River valleys by nature are supposed to flood. While dredging and channelization prevent harm to mankind and property, the environmental impacts are substantial.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 04, 2011, 11:17:39 PM
More pics and a video from what has become more of a daily adventure than 'work' today. :)
They are all at Harrah's Casino.  We are on our daily run to inspect the fiber optic cabling.  We got good news today, it looks like our cabling is going to hold out!  One less head ache for me!

Video of the boat ride:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnDhfW5Z6Ww

Here are the pics.  (The bird house shot is my favorite)
(http://i.imgur.com/B8sEK.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/50Wr1.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/XIAGX.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/cabyd.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/ZDfyE.jpg)

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 05, 2011, 12:14:06 AM
Two things to note.

1. I love southern history, and reading all these stories from people who lived during the 27 and 37 floods, and life in the area back then are fascinating. Im really enjoying this.

2. I spoke to my ACE friend around lunch today. He said the delay was because the fuses kept getting wet from the river, as it was rising faster than forecast. And apparently this was causing some problems on getting things to detonate on schedule. I didnt have long to take to him, as it was a busy day at the office, so I didnt get much more detail. Ill call him back in the next day or two and maybe get some more info from him. We dont normally talk every day. Im not sure if the rising water was causing them to use more of the slurry mix than they expected to, but it is what it is.

 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 05, 2011, 12:43:00 AM
I understand the river at Memphis during the '37 flood was 3.5 miles wide, and in some places in MS, nearly 30-40 miles wide. Amazing stuff. The corps' activity of '27 really salvaged the entire MS valley from Cario to NOLA. This flood will test the system for sure.

How was the MS Valley salvaged in 1927? It's regarded as the most destructive flood in US History and the river was 60 miles wide around Greenville. Maybe you got '37 and '27 mixed up? Anyway, I have to agree with you that this flood will test the system.

I'm pretty bummed to be honest. In Tunica County all part-time county employees were laid off today and workers at the mall in Tunica were put on winter hours because it's so dead. My daddy said it was eerie how there weren't any cars on 61. I'm worried casinos won't want to reopen (some have water in them already) and also the interesting "levee culture" as I call it won't be the same. By levee culture I mean Tunica Cutoff. Everyone knows times are tough already and this is a big hit to the county.

And Tunica aside I think the damage is going to be much worse from Bolivar County southward.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 05, 2011, 05:10:37 AM
WMC is going to have live streaming coverage at 530 as Chopper 5 flies over floodwaters.

Also they delayed the third explosion until 1 p.m. today.


I finally got to watch Governor Barbour's conference... pretty foreboding.

Quote
"We're not talking a 100-year flood," said Peter Nimrod, chief engineer for the Greenville-based Mississippi Levee Board. "It's way beyond a 100-year flood."


Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 05, 2011, 07:37:25 AM
How was the MS Valley salvaged in 1927? It's regarded as the most destructive flood in US History and the river was 60 miles wide around Greenville. Maybe you got '37 and '27 mixed up? Anyway, I have to agree with you that this flood will test the system.

I'm pretty bummed to be honest. In Tunica County all part-time county employees were laid off today and workers at the mall in Tunica were put on winter hours because it's so dead. My daddy said it was eerie how there weren't any cars on 61. I'm worried casinos won't want to reopen (some have water in them already) and also the interesting "levee culture" as I call it won't be the same. By levee culture I mean Tunica Cutoff. Everyone knows times are tough already and this is a big hit to the county.

And Tunica aside I think the damage is going to be much worse from Bolivar County southward.


Sorry, salvaged AFTER with the Flood Control Act of 1928. If you think '37 was bad, it was nothing compared to what it could have been with out taming the river in the years after '27. 1950 was another year in which major work was done to shore up the levees. My point was...as bad as flooding will be in the coming weeks, it could have been worse, pending levee breaches. That work came with a price through as it changed the landscape of the area, especially east AR, which contained many more wetlands than what is seen today, which are few.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 05, 2011, 08:48:06 AM
How was the MS Valley salvaged in 1927? It's regarded as the most destructive flood in US History and the river was 60 miles wide around Greenville. Maybe you got '37 and '27 mixed up? Anyway, I have to agree with you that this flood will test the system.

I'm pretty bummed to be honest. In Tunica County all part-time county employees were laid off today and workers at the mall in Tunica were put on winter hours because it's so dead. My daddy said it was eerie how there weren't any cars on 61. I'm worried casinos won't want to reopen (some have water in them already) and also the interesting "levee culture" as I call it won't be the same. By levee culture I mean Tunica Cutoff. Everyone knows times are tough already and this is a big hit to the county.

And Tunica aside I think the damage is going to be much worse from Bolivar County southward.


The hit to Tunica is crazy!  It is amazing how much things change there with the casinos closed.  If it makes you feel any better Caesar's (Harrahs, Horseshoe, and Roadhouse) have no plans to leave that I am aware of and we have invested quite a bit of money in the flood wall and various other operations to minimize our damage.  We have put a ton of effort in this week and I am feeling pretty good about our properties.  I have heard Bally's and Resorts may cut their loses and leave the market, but that is just rumors at this point.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 05, 2011, 09:40:25 AM
WMC is going to have live streaming coverage at 530 as Chopper 5 flies over floodwaters.

Also they delayed the third explosion until 1 p.m. today.


I finally got to watch Governor Barbour's conference... pretty foreboding.




is that 0530 or 1730 on Chopper 5?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 05, 2011, 11:28:22 AM
Sorry, salvaged AFTER with the Flood Control Act of 1928. If you think '37 was bad, it was nothing compared to what it could have been with out taming the river in the years after '27. 1950 was another year in which major work was done to shore up the levees. My point was...as bad as flooding will be in the coming weeks, it could have been worse, pending levee breaches. That work came with a price through as it changed the landscape of the area, especially east AR, which contained many more wetlands than what is seen today, which are few.

Got'cha. I'd imagine 1927 had a lot more water than this one in 2011 since levees breached in over 140 locations along the river but it still managed to be in the top 2 crests at almost every gauge.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 05, 2011, 11:38:03 AM
The hit to Tunica is crazy!  It is amazing how much things change there with the casinos closed.  If it makes you feel any better Caesar's (Harrahs, Horseshoe, and Roadhouse) have no plans to leave that I am aware of and we have invested quite a bit of money in the flood wall and various other operations to minimize our damage.  We have put a ton of effort in this week and I am feeling pretty good about our properties.  I have heard Bally's and Resorts may cut their loses and leave the market, but that is just rumors at this point.

That's good to hear that they have no plans of leaving! I hope once this is over that the recovery turnover is quick. But I've read the water will stay pretty high through early June.

is that 0530 or 1730 on Chopper 5?


It was 0530.

Overall I feel like all areas will get through this without catastrophic disaster (although the effects are already major... but I feel confident nothing like 1927 will occur). If we do then we'll know the levee system can withstand about the worst we know of.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 05, 2011, 03:22:24 PM
At least with this new flood we're learning about lots of new impact statements...most of these were never incorporated before last week (crest still 48.0 on early morning the 11th)...3 PM stage is 45.43 feet.

* AT 44.0 FEET...WATER HAS BACKED UP THE LOOSAHATCIE RIVER TO AROUND HIGHWAY  
  14.  THE WOLF RIVER HAS BACKED UP TO NEAR JACKSON AVENUE.  NONCONNAH CREEK  
  HAS BACKED UP TO LAMAR AVENUE.  BACKWATER IS RISING AND SPREADING OUT ALONG  
  THE MENTIONED TRIBUTARIES.  
* AT 45.0 FEET...THE ROAD TO SEWAGE TREATMENT PLANT IS FLOODED.  
* AT 46.0 FEET...THE SOUTH END OF TOM LEE PARK BEGINS TO FLOOD. RIVERSIDE  
  DRIVE AT BEALE STREET IS BEGINNING TO FLOOD.  
* AT 47.0 FEET...NORTH EVACUATION ROAD FROM HARBORTOWN IS UNDER WATER.  
  DWELLINGS ON THE NORTH END OF THE MEMPHIS HARBOR ARE BEGINNING TO FLOOD.  
* AT 48.0 FEET...RIVERSIDE DRIVE IN MEMPHIS AND TOM LEE PARK ARE  
  FLOODED.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Jason M on May 05, 2011, 06:22:41 PM
Somehow,  ??? , the Forked Deer and Obion rivers have receded around 3-4 ft here in Gibson county. I know they drain into the Mississippi in Dyer county but I don't see how they are draining with the Mississippi as high as it is... I'm wondering could this end up being even worse than they have forecast for downstream (southern Dyer county south past Coahoma county )? all that water that has drained from here is no doubt heading that way. And to think it may not recede to even minor flood stage till june  ::wow:: ::wow::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 05, 2011, 06:28:29 PM
Not sure how reliable it is...but caught the tail end of a report on ABC24 this evening that said Memphis/Shelby EMA will announce the evacuation of 20,000 people in their morning briefing tomorrow...moving those people to a "tent city". Didn't hear anything else.

They (EMA) did say this afternoon that they would have something to "go over in detail" tomorrow...thus to prepare for a longer-than-normal briefing...but wouldn't say what...not sure where ABC24 is getting their information or again...if that's actually what's going to happen.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 05, 2011, 06:30:39 PM
Anybody heard from marjl21?  Wondering how much clearance he'll have with the expected crest.  It's hard for me to make out from the maps but it looks like my old place at Island Park on the north end is in the "possibly flooded" category.  It sounded like marjl21 lived near there.  Hope everything goes OK...   ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 05, 2011, 06:33:43 PM
Not sure how reliable it is...but caught the tail end of a report on ABC24 this evening that said Memphis/Shelby EMA will announce the evacuation of 20,000 people in their morning briefing tomorrow...moving those people to a "tent city". Didn't hear anything else.

They (EMA) did say this afternoon that they would have something to "go over in detail" tomorrow...thus to prepare for a longer-than-normal briefing...but wouldn't say what...not sure where ABC24 is getting their information or again...if that's actually what's going to happen.

That number sounds real high compared for the maps I'm looking at on staysafeshelby.  I haven't been touring around anywhere except for dropping by my old place on Mud Island on Tuesday to see what it looked like...it's gonna be close...a foot or two extra would really do a number but thankfully there hasn't been much rain in the drainage basin since early this week.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 05, 2011, 08:02:02 PM
Anybody heard from marjl21?  Wondering how much clearance he'll have with the expected crest.  It's hard for me to make out from the maps but it looks like my old place at Island Park on the north end is in the "possibly flooded" category.  It sounded like marjl21 lived near there.  Hope everything goes OK...   ::fingerscrossed::

Things are fine here... I live in the Estates at River Pointe, and the Wolf River Lagoon is now up to the back of the property.  Lucky for us, the apartment complex sits about 8-10 feet above the land behind us that is flooded.  It would take about a 51-52 ft crest to even start effecting the property, and probably another foot to start getting into apartments. 

The big worry is of course access... Most people I've talked to don't seem very concerned.  Water is closer to the back exit, and I think the 47 ft estimate seems pretty acurate.  As far as the area near the roundabout, it looks as though it should be fine as well.  We will know more after the weekend.  The only threat there is one low area between the first greenbelt parking lot and the entrance to HarborTown.  There is a sewer drain on the side of the street, and you can see the water in the drain a few feet down.  If the water rises up, I could see that causing water to be 6-12" over parts of the road (southbound side, less on the northbound side).  Will that be enough for them to close Mud Island? I really hope not.  It seems like something that can be prevented with a few sandbags and a water pump to pump the water back over the small rise torward the parking lot.  I don't see any areas that would flood directly on Island Dr (North of the roundabout) from the river encroaching on the road (as long as we crest around 48 ft)

The staysafeshelby.us maps for Mud Island don't seem very accurate.  They show several areas of possible flooding along Island Drive and then my apartment complex that won't come close to flooding.  I'm interested to see the updated maps that are supposed to be up sometime tonight. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 05, 2011, 08:26:55 PM
Thanks for the update marjl. Glad you are safe. I still think the areas with the most danger lie along the backwater of the wolf, loosahatchie, big creek, and nonconnah creek areas. Homes and businesses in those areas are already flooding and it will only get worse. I haven't heard anything about 20k evacuations, but will be watching carefully tomorrow. Does anyone know if the 3rd levee was blown near New Madrid?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 05, 2011, 08:41:50 PM
Does anyone know if the 3rd levee was blown near New Madrid?

It was blown at 2:35 PM today per ACoE Twitter.

http://twitter.com/#!/MemphisDistrict (http://twitter.com/#!/MemphisDistrict)

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 05, 2011, 08:47:29 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
820 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A MANDATORY EVACUTION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITIES OF COTTON
PLANT...MCCLELLAND AND GREGORY...ALL IN WOODRUFF COUNTY. WATER IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTOP THE LEVEE ALONG THE WHITE RIVER...AND THE
CACHE RIVER IS ALSO RUNNING HIGH.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 05, 2011, 08:58:18 PM
The country view mobile home park in North Memphis...which evacuated first as they begin flooding at 38-40 feet...now looks like this...
(http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg619/scaled.php?tn=0&server=619&filename=btmbw.jpg&xsize=640&ysize=640)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 05, 2011, 09:09:08 PM
Wow... That's terrible!
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 05, 2011, 09:11:28 PM
East bound lanes of I-40 in Eastern AR now closed due to the White River.

Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
902 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

DUE TO FLOOD WATERS ON INTERSTATE 40...THE EAST BOUND LANES ARE
NOW CLOSED. TRAFFIC IS BEING DIVERTED FROM EXIT 193 AT HAZEN SOUTH
TO STUTTGART ON HIGHWAY 63. AT HIGHWAY 165...TRAFFIC WILL HEAD
SOUTH TO DE WITT...AND THEN HEAD EAST ON HIGHWAY 1 TO MARVELL.
TRAFFIC CAN THEN CONTINUE NORTH ON HIGHWAY 1 THROUGH MARIANNA TO
FORREST CITY...OR GO NORTH ON HIGHWAY 49 TO BRINKLEY.

IN ADDITION...THE WEST BOUND LANES REMAIN CLOSED. TRAFFIC IS
BEING DIVERTED FROM EXIT 216 TO HIGHWAY 49 NORTH AT BRINKLEY
ARKANSAS. AT HIGHWAY 64 AT FAIR OAKS...TRAFFIC WILL THEN HEAD WEST
TO BALD KNOB. AT HIGHWAY 67...167...TRAFFIC WILL HEAD SOUTH
TOWARDS NORTH LITTLE ROCK...AND RECONNECT WITH INTERSTATE 40.

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 05, 2011, 10:34:25 PM
I made it to my destination in AR despite the White River's every effort to stop me.  Miles upon miles of AR 14 is underwater west of Newport, AR.  The flooding in this area was pretty crazy and was up to the roofs of some of the houses and barns on the side of the road. 

Southern MS is going to be in very bad shape south of AR city between the combination of the White river and the MS river...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 05, 2011, 10:39:52 PM
Per Channel 3 video, storm drains on Riverside have overflowed. It is now closed due to flooding at Union. Water is lapping on the road anyways from the harbor.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on May 05, 2011, 10:52:30 PM
The country view mobile home park in North Memphis...which evacuated first as they begin flooding at 38-40 feet...now looks like this...
(http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg619/scaled.php?tn=0&server=619&filename=btmbw.jpg&xsize=640&ysize=640)

That certainly brings back memories...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: justinmundie on May 06, 2011, 06:20:32 AM
Per Channel 3 video, storm drains on Riverside have overflowed. It is now closed due to flooding at Union. Water is lapping on the road anyways from the harbor.

That in my opinion is the most crazy thing. We had major flashflooding in my neighborhood last year... It went down, then Monday as the Cumberland started rising, water came up the sewer system from the river and flooded the same places again
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 06, 2011, 08:04:27 AM
Quote
In the meantime, north of Downtown, the city's busiest general-aviation airport was underwater. General DeWitt Spain Airport flooded when a temporary berm, or levee, built as part of an emergency effort to protect the facility, experienced a "catastrophic failure," said John Greaud, vice president of operations for the Memphis-Shelby County Airport Authority.


Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 06, 2011, 08:48:36 AM
Things are fine here... I live in the Estates at River Pointe, and the Wolf River Lagoon is now up to the back of the property.  Lucky for us, the apartment complex sits about 8-10 feet above the land behind us that is flooded.  It would take about a 51-52 ft crest to even start effecting the property, and probably another foot to start getting into apartments. 

The big worry is of course access... Most people I've talked to don't seem very concerned.  Water is closer to the back exit, and I think the 47 ft estimate seems pretty acurate.  As far as the area near the roundabout, it looks as though it should be fine as well.  We will know more after the weekend.  The only threat there is one low area between the first greenbelt parking lot and the entrance to HarborTown.  There is a sewer drain on the side of the street, and you can see the water in the drain a few feet down.  If the water rises up, I could see that causing water to be 6-12" over parts of the road (southbound side, less on the northbound side).  Will that be enough for them to close Mud Island? I really hope not.  It seems like something that can be prevented with a few sandbags and a water pump to pump the water back over the small rise torward the parking lot.  I don't see any areas that would flood directly on Island Dr (North of the roundabout) from the river encroaching on the road (as long as we crest around 48 ft)

The staysafeshelby.us maps for Mud Island don't seem very accurate.  They show several areas of possible flooding along Island Drive and then my apartment complex that won't come close to flooding.  I'm interested to see the updated maps that are supposed to be up sometime tonight. 

Thanks for the reply.  It's sort of amazing how Mud Island is basically dry even in the worst flood situations.  When I lived there, people would sometimes term it as flood-proof.  While I certainly do not believe that, it would take a flood of epic proportions to flood the island. 

I was wondering about that north end, though, based on the maps.  It did not seem like it was that much lower to the eye, but it look like the vertical clearance would be close for most of the island, so I was wondering. 

As for access, even if there are problems, they will only take place right around the crest and should be very short in duration (perhaps a day or so).  All in all, it would not be a big deal.

BTW, this flood has actually increased my confidence in Mud Island's ability to withstand a flood and I would buy confidently in this regard if I ever returned as a homeowner.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 06, 2011, 09:13:20 AM
As for access, even if there are problems, they will only take place right around the crest and should be very short in duration (perhaps a day or so).  All in all, it would not be a big deal.

Except that they are forecasting the river to stay near the crest for 5-7 days.  The new map for Mud Island (38103) now shows all of Island Dr in the possibly flooded area.  Don't agree with that at all....
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 06, 2011, 10:35:35 AM
Kevin,

Who is the older guy with Memphis NWS who speaks at the EMA conferences...raspy voice?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 10:36:30 AM
10AM Memphis reading is 45.97ft...just barely under the 46' major flood state. Should exceed that by sometime this afternoon.

BTW...its been seen quite a bit Today by people all over the country (lots of talk about it)...but just a stunning Commercial Appeal Front Page this morning...

(http://webmedia.newseum.org/newseum-multimedia/dfp/jpg6/lg/TN_CA.jpg)

 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 10:39:45 AM
Kevin,

Who is the older guy with Memphis NWS who speaks at the EMA conferences...raspy voice?

That's Dr. Gene Rench...he's their service hydrologist. He handles their morning briefings.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 06, 2011, 10:50:06 AM
That's Dr. Gene Rench...he's their service hydrologist. He handles their morning briefings.
Thanks. He makes me laugh.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 10:56:14 AM
Thanks. He makes me laugh.

LOL! Yeah...he has an interesting way of making his points...always has.  :D Really nice guy though...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 06, 2011, 10:56:54 AM
Same pic up close. Hard to believe we have a little more than 2 feet to go.

(http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/1446/6floodt607.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/269/6floodt607.jpg/)

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 11:23:17 AM
Memphis gauge now at 46.1...officially major flood stage...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 11:27:21 AM
Exactly as predicted...with 46 feet the river is now spilling over into Riverside drive at Beale...yesterday water just coming up through the storm drains as Curt mentioned...

(http://c0013759.cdn1.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/x2_5ea86df)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 06, 2011, 11:34:58 AM
Exactly as predicted...with 46 feet the river is now spilling over into Riverside drive at Beale...yesterday water just coming up through the storm drains as Curt mentioned...

(http://c0013759.cdn1.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/x2_5ea86df)


Just amazing footage that will obviously get much worse in the next week. We may never see Riverside covered again in our lifetime.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 11:41:12 AM
ACE is reporting "Levee seepage" in Marion, AR. They say no imminent threat...but are closely monitoring...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 12:00:10 PM
Another view of Riverside and Tom Lee Park...slowly getting inundated...
(http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpic/photos/large/292556579.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAJF3XCCKACR3QDMOA&Expires=1304702171&Signature=Qk%2BpH3OifrTL1eDDhzkYGkG04%2Fw%3D)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 06, 2011, 12:04:56 PM
Another view of Riverside and Tom Lee Park...slowly getting inundated...
(http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpic/photos/large/292556579.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAJF3XCCKACR3QDMOA&Expires=1304702171&Signature=Qk%2BpH3OifrTL1eDDhzkYGkG04%2Fw%3D)


Yup looks like Tom Lee Park will be underwater soon.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 12:16:43 PM
Highway 51 at Watkins is being shut down...reported 2 feet of water at that intersection...going to cause major problems and backups in that area...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 06, 2011, 12:45:48 PM
Somewhat good news for Mud Island...  Per WREG, Mayor AC Wharton said that they have plans in place to bring in contractors to artificially raise the elevation of Island Drive to keep Mud Island open, if needed.   ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 06, 2011, 01:28:12 PM
ACE is reporting "Levee seepage" in Marion, AR. They say no imminent threat...but are closely monitoring...

Yes. I can verify this. My mom was talking to one of the local farmers. He said that rain water is muddy. seep water is clear. The fields are wetter than they normally are around the levees and the water is clear and has current.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 01:41:57 PM
Perhaps a bit of good news...New Madrid...Tiptonville and Caruthersville crests have been lowered...New Madrid has already crested two feet under and two days earlier than forecast...and the Tiptonville crest was lowered nearly 3ft...with Caruthersville lowered a foot and a half. No change to any other downstream locations...though we'll have to see if perhaps the crests may end up being slightly lower and slightly earlier than indicated given the upstream conditions. Hard to tell...especially when you add in potential Bird Point effects.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 02:31:04 PM
MEG now telling EMA that crest at Memphis shouldn't last more than 3-4 days with a rapid decline rather than 4-7 days and a slow decline as first thought...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 06, 2011, 03:08:32 PM
28 day forecast has Memphis below 20ft by the end of the period.good news in the longer term but the damage will have already (and is being) done in the short term.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 06, 2011, 03:27:13 PM
Well needless this to say this has been a dramatic end to the school year here, as most students at my school are from out of town, there has been a lot of worry from parents and misinformation.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 04:28:26 PM
MS River Traffic at Caruthersville has been re-opened due to lowered crest predictions...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 04:31:56 PM
MEG says they don't believe there's much of a chance to exceed 48' at Memphis anymore due to lower-than-expected and earlier-than-expected crests taking place upstream...and no additional rainfall upstream before crest...they are still holding to the 48foot level for now though rather than dropping it that far downstream (or at Osceola)...

EDIT...and not surprisingly...MEG is now taking criticism from the media for the comments at the morning briefing. As hinted...Dr Rench has a "unique" if not funny way of saying things...and unfortunately it hasn't come across the right way with folks. Probably won't see him back at the briefings now...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 06, 2011, 04:48:22 PM
I can see that. For a lot of people this is a very serious situation and having significant impacts on their life, particularly in areas along the river outside of Memphis where there is no bluff. For them it's not about the gauge crossing some number and breaking records...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 04:54:59 PM
Updated look of Riverside@Beale from Lauren Lee of Fox13...
(http://i54.tinypic.com/2s9qc8j.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 07:30:13 PM
A closer image of Riverside (or...more appropriately...River) @ Beale...from Peter Edmiston...
(http://i56.tinypic.com/2h3afsn.jpg)

Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 06, 2011, 08:29:35 PM
A closer image of Riverside (or...more appropriately...River) @ Beale...from Peter Edmiston...
(http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpic/photos/large/292787105.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAJF3XCCKACR3QDMOA&Expires=1304729144&Signature=Zh3oE5OInOJ2IAUBgB%2FM3ZE4EW8%3D)


Kevin. Some of your pictures arent showing up. There is no photo and there is no link.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 06, 2011, 08:32:06 PM
28 day forecast has Memphis below 20ft by the end of the period.good news in the longer term but the damage will have already (and is being) done in the short term.

Youre saying in 28 days we are at 20 feet? Thats hard to believe.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 09:11:15 PM
Kevin. Some of your pictures arent showing up. There is no photo and there is no link.
I re-uploaded the last two...see if that helps...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 06, 2011, 10:52:38 PM
This is a picture of the well-known Cedar Bar to Delta locals. This building is rather high on stilts... :\

(http://i201.photobucket.com/albums/aa218/HarlequhnBoy/230236_10150179451394637_74485154636_6582191_1308146_n.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 06, 2011, 11:03:26 PM
If anyone has a link to some new casino pics I'd appreciate it!
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 11:12:47 PM
If anyone has a link to some new casino pics I'd appreciate it!
I haven't seen any real new ones in the last couple of days. I'm sure bugalou will be the one to have some of the latest ones if/when he checks in...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 06, 2011, 11:19:28 PM
I haven't seen any real new ones in the last couple of days. I'm sure bugalou will be the one to have some of the latest ones if/when he checks in...

I am out of town in the Ozarks at the moment.  It is nice to be high and dry here, though all the rivers/creeks here are still trending above average.  I will be back in town right in time for the crest of the MS and will try to get some more pictures of Horseshoe and Harrah's.  So far though, it looks like between some luck and some awesome work by our facilities team that there will be little long term damage to our properties.  The trends of a rapidly falling crest are also positive.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 11:21:26 PM
I am out of town at the moment in the Ozarks at the moment.  It is nice to be high and dry here, though all the rivers/creeks here are still trending above average.  I will be back in town right in time for the crest of the MS and will try to get some more pictures of Horseshoe and Harrah's.  So far though, it looks like between some luck and some awesome work by our facilities team that there will be little long term damage to our properties.  The trends of a rapidly falling crest are also positive.

Oh...that's right...forgot you were out of town! :D

Glad to hear it sounds like the properties themselves will have little damage. Hopefully that means they will be able to re-open sooner than later when the waters recede...which will certainly be needed after such an extended closure.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 06, 2011, 11:28:37 PM
Oh...that's right...forgot you were out of town! :D

Glad to hear it sounds like the properties themselves will have little damage. Hopefully that means they will be able to re-open sooner than later when the waters recede...which will certainly be needed after such an extended closure.

Bally's and Sam's town aren't sitting so pretty.  Last I heard they were completely cut lose, off their moorings, and tethered by rope.  Fitz is also in a pretty perilous situation as well.  I am thankful on our good luck thus far with our properties.  The pictures I have been posting have been from where we have been inspecting our fiber optic cabling at the Harrah's property.  If we were to lose that cabling, we could be looking at $250,000 to $1,000,000 in damages.  That would be just the cabling, aside from any other damages.

I have heard rumors Colony Capital (owner of Resorts and Ballys) may take their insurance payment and get out of this market.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 11:30:09 PM
BTW...I've been reading a lot of rumors Today of the river going to like 55 or 60 feet...and that the NWS is trying to "hide" the real crest information from the public. I realize nobody here believes that's happening...but just so much misinformation out there...everything suggests the 48' crest is on track to this point with perhaps a small margin of error on either side...

46.6 the final hourly reading for this Friday...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 06, 2011, 11:31:16 PM
Bally's and Sam's town aren't sitting so pretty.  Last I heard they were completely cut lose, off their moorings, and tethered by rope.  Fitz is also in a pretty perilous situation as well.  I am thankful on our good luck thus far with our properties.  The pictures I have been posting have been from where we have been inspecting our fiber optic cabling at the Harrah's property.  If where were to lose that cabling, we could be looking at $250,000 to $1,000,000 in damages.  That would be just the cabling, aside from any other damages.

I have heard rumors Colony Capital (owner of Resorts and Ballys) may take their insurance payment and get out of this market.

Oh wow...that's definitely a bit discouraging. Hope that doesn't bear out...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 06, 2011, 11:33:35 PM
BTW...I've been reading a lot of rumors Today of the river going to like 55 or 60 feet...and that the NWS is trying to "hide" the real crest information from the public. I realize nobody here believes that's happening...but just so much misinformation out there...everything suggests the 48' crest is on track to this point with perhaps a small margin of error on either side...

46.6 the final hourly reading for this Friday...

Yeah I have been hearing that as well.  I have tried to explain to everyone that levels can vary greatly between gauges and can be quite different.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: PigsEye on May 07, 2011, 12:49:47 AM
Bally's and Sam's town aren't sitting so pretty.  Last I heard they were completely cut lose, off their moorings, and tethered by rope.  Fitz is also in a pretty perilous situation as well.  I am thankful on our good luck thus far with our properties.  The pictures I have been posting have been from where we have been inspecting our fiber optic cabling at the Harrah's property.  If we were to lose that cabling, we could be looking at $250,000 to $1,000,000 in damages.  That would be just the cabling, aside from any other damages.

I have heard rumors Colony Capital (owner of Resorts and Ballys) may take their insurance payment and get out of this market.

I've heard the same on those 2 from some other casino employees.

Are you trout fishing?  I know the rivers are full, but some fish are being caught.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 07, 2011, 09:31:39 AM
I've heard the same on those 2 from some other casino employees.

Are you trout fishing?  I know the rivers are full, but some fish are being caught.

I have just been hiking so far.  I am hoping to get some fishing done Sunday.  :)
I am going to try and get some pictures of the White river on my way back.  The flooding it caused around Newport was pretty jaw dropping.  The path we had to take to avoid the flooding added about 2 hours on to our trip out here.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 07, 2011, 09:43:32 AM
I have just been hiking so far.  I am hoping to get some fishing done Sunday.  :)
I am going to try and get some pictures of the White river on my way back.  The flooding it caused around Newport was pretty jaw dropping.  The path we had to take to avoid the flooding added about 2 hours on to our trip out here.
Hope you are near my favorite place in the Ozarks, Buffalo Point.

Meanwhile, MS River now at 47.6ft, expected to start levelling off here over the next 72hours. 48 looks very likely, especially with that nice bactch of heavy rain moving in, which totally is catching me by surpirse. At least it will be brief.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 07, 2011, 09:48:15 AM
I believe that 47.6 reading is wrong...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 07, 2011, 09:57:20 AM
I believe that 47.6 reading is wrong...

Hmmm looking at the hydrograph, it should be around 46.9 from extrapoloation of yday. I see the observed data has a sharp increase for this obs. Weird for sure.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: justinmundie on May 07, 2011, 10:12:58 AM
BTW...I've been reading a lot of rumors Today of the river going to like 55 or 60 feet...and that the NWS is trying to "hide" the real crest information from the public. I realize nobody here believes that's happening...but just so much misinformation out there...everything suggests the 48' crest is on track to this point with perhaps a small margin of error on either side...

46.6 the final hourly reading for this Friday...


I can understand how the rumors got started. Crest information for the Cumberland at Nashville ended up being too low by about 10 percent up until it became clear it was going to bust badly sometime Monday. By then, people realized the forecasts were considerably low and started freaking out.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 07, 2011, 10:29:04 AM
Hmm, more rain today really? Shouldn't be a big deal... .5-1" from Memphis north but still...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 07, 2011, 10:31:59 AM
Perfect time for the gauge to break...now people are freaking out that its rising a foot an hour...   ::doh::

Should be somewhere between 46.8 and 46.9 in reality. The overnight observations were actually suggesting a real flattening out...as is happening in Osceola. Wouldn't say cresting yet for sure...but the not the rises we were seeing all last week...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 07, 2011, 10:38:54 AM
48 looks to be a good number regardless. Kudos to LMRFC for an amazing job so far. Honestly, numbers within a few more inches or records aren't the most important thing. Damge has and is being done. The EMA-city-county coordination has been second to none.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 07, 2011, 10:42:48 AM
48 looks to be a good number regardless. Kudos to LMRFC for an amazing job so far. Honestly, numbers within a few more inches or records aren't the most important thing. Damge has and is being done. The EMA-city-county coordination has been second to none.

Agreed...I think everyone has been doing a great job so far with accurate and coordinated information. Everything has worked very well so far with no major problems. Not sure what more you can ask for in a once-in-a-lifetime event most likely.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 07, 2011, 11:45:16 AM
As people freak out...MEG takes a very unusual step in calming fears...they issued an SPS!
Quote
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1143 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-072100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
1143 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2011

...THE MEMPHIS GAGE ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS NOT FUNCTIONING
   CORRECTLY...

THE LAST CORRECT READING WAS 46.83 FEET AT 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING.

HERE IS THE PROJECTED ESTIMATED STAGES:

AT 1 PM CDT 46.9 FEET

AT 7 PM CDT 47.0 FEET

THE MEMPHIS CORPS OF ENGINEERS HAS TECHNICIANS WORKING ON THE
GAGE AND WILL RESTORE IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 07, 2011, 01:21:09 PM
New forecast keeps crest at 48.0ft...but has moved it up to Monday Night/Tuesday Morning with a slow fall thereafter. They are estimating the 12p stage at 46.8 ft...same as this morning.

Seems like the idea of an earlier crest than first thought will work out. Still wouldn't be surprised if we flatten out at something lik 47.5 instead of 48 (again...given what's happened upstream)...but it will be close. Shouldn't have to worry about much if any above 48 at least...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 07, 2011, 01:48:11 PM
BTW...I've been reading a lot of rumors Today of the river going to like 55 or 60 feet...and that the NWS is trying to "hide" the real crest information from the public. I realize nobody here believes that's happening...but just so much misinformation out there...everything suggests the 48' crest is on track to this point with perhaps a small margin of error on either side...

46.6 the final hourly reading for this Friday...

I've never known the NWS to hide anything; especially the local offices.  That said...WTH with the spike on the gauge?

EDIT:  I see, it's broken. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 07, 2011, 01:51:42 PM
I've never known the NWS to hide anything; especially the local offices.  That said...WTH with the spike on the gauge?

See the SPS above. Its a malfunction. The gauges are automated...so they're subject to occasional error. Probably happens more times than we can count when nobody is looking...just bad timing this go-around....
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 07, 2011, 01:56:44 PM
**Gauge is fixed...readings will reflect that next hour***

Reading is officially 47.04 right now...pretty much right on forecast...


Quote
..THE MEMPHIS GAGE HAS BEEN REPAIRED ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
 
THE LATEST READING WAS 47.04 FEET AS OF 110 PM CDT. 
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 07, 2011, 02:01:46 PM
Kevin, I'm with you on this probably going just under the forecast.  We have the gauges upstream to look at and we don't have any primary tributaries between the Ohio River and here.  South of here, the Arkansas and its tributaries could make the story a little different.  The effects of the floodway should be fully realized by now, as well (of which there were supposed to be none in the long-term).
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: mempho on May 07, 2011, 02:13:19 PM
**Gauge is fixed...readings will reflect that next hour***

Reading is officially 47.04 right now...pretty much right on forecast...



FYI, people are freaking out about this reading on the WREG "talk to 3" chatbox.  Also, a new rumor I saw on there that I've never heard before is that they are evacuating Walls, MS because they plan on blowing up the levee.  Sounds like BS to me (after all, it took a federal judge to rule about Bird's Point).
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 07, 2011, 03:15:34 PM
Via Dan Price...Perhaps Ironic...but the Tom Lee Memorial at Tom Lee Park is now surrounded by water...
(http://i56.tinypic.com/sb08cg.jpg)

More of the Park is becoming inundated all the way to this portion of Riverside now...
(http://i54.tinypic.com/54xi5w.jpg)

Finally...from David Cox...Today's view of Riverside and Beale...
(http://i55.tinypic.com/2ustok7.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 07, 2011, 04:39:19 PM
And of course EMA clarified the whole gauge situation at the 4 PM briefing...and almost immediately people started calling the EMA and NWS liars...saying they are intentionally altering and lowering the gauge numbers now and that the spikes are actually what is happening... ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 07, 2011, 05:03:25 PM
.  Also, a new rumor I saw on there that I've never heard before is that they are evacuating Walls, MS because they plan on blowing up the levee.
Lovely.     ::doh::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 07, 2011, 05:18:35 PM
And of course EMA clarified the whole gauge situation at the 4 PM briefing...and almost immediately people started calling the EMA and NWS liars...saying they are intentionally altering and lowering the gauge numbers now and that the spikes are actually what is happening... ::bangingheadintowall::

Who is doing that?
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 07, 2011, 05:24:57 PM
Who is doing that?

People on both Facebook and Twitter...every once in a while you get a "no way would they be doing that"...but most people's comments range from "they're going to be wrong with their crest" to the outright conspiracy theories mentioned above...

Here's a selection...
"yea I'm pretty sure the NWS is wrong (as usual) on this....go to Memphis TN Great Flood of 2011 page and see the photos of the differences between yesterday and today. its rising fast!"

"So what your saying is....the guage been wrong. The river is actually at 47.123 and y'all want us to BELIEVE it's gonna take 3 days for it to rise .877 to crest at 48.0?
Awe okay."

" I think they're withholding the truth from us"

"I have known from day 1 that it was going to be 50-53 by may 10th from a city employee. They think lying will control the louting."

" So putting peoples lives in danger is better than looting? Wow, and these are the people that are supposed to be helping us! I think we should all pack up and move to florida :)"

" Yes they are withholding the truth, there is no doubt that that they are wrong about it going up less than an inch in the next 36 hrs.."
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 07, 2011, 05:56:36 PM
People on both Facebook and Twitter...every once in a while you get a "no way would they be doing that"...but most people's comments range from "they're going to be wrong with their crest" to the outright conspiracy theories mentioned above...

Here's a selection...
"yea I'm pretty sure the NWS is wrong (as usual) on this....go to Memphis TN Great Flood of 2011 page and see the photos of the differences between yesterday and today. its rising fast!"

"So what your saying is....the guage been wrong. The river is actually at 47.123 and y'all want us to BELIEVE it's gonna take 3 days for it to rise .877 to crest at 48.0?
Awe okay."

" I think they're withholding the truth from us"

"I have known from day 1 that it was going to be 50-53 by may 10th from a city employee. They think lying will control the louting."

" So putting peoples lives in danger is better than looting? Wow, and these are the people that are supposed to be helping us! I think we should all pack up and move to florida :)"

" Yes they are withholding the truth, there is no doubt that that they are wrong about it going up less than an inch in the next 36 hrs.."

Definitely Obama's fault.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on May 07, 2011, 06:12:20 PM
People on both Facebook and Twitter...every once in a while you get a "no way would they be doing that"...but most people's comments range from "they're going to be wrong with their crest" to the outright conspiracy theories mentioned above...

Here's a selection...
"yea I'm pretty sure the NWS is wrong (as usual) on this....go to Memphis TN Great Flood of 2011 page and see the photos of the differences between yesterday and today. its rising fast!"

"So what your saying is....the guage been wrong. The river is actually at 47.123 and y'all want us to BELIEVE it's gonna take 3 days for it to rise .877 to crest at 48.0?
Awe okay."

" I think they're withholding the truth from us"

"I have known from day 1 that it was going to be 50-53 by may 10th from a city employee. They think lying will control the louting."

" So putting peoples lives in danger is better than looting? Wow, and these are the people that are supposed to be helping us! I think we should all pack up and move to florida :)"

" Yes they are withholding the truth, there is no doubt that that they are wrong about it going up less than an inch in the next 36 hrs.."

Yup.  Those are your usual conspiracy theorists.  They can get so annoying after a while.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 07, 2011, 06:21:38 PM
Love that they're in a snit about 7 inches difference :)
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 07, 2011, 07:53:58 PM
Well I haven't any people IRL say anything like that.

Besides Delta residents, though, most people I've conversed with about the flood are college students and their families. If I have to explain one more time that Memphis is on a bluff....
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 07, 2011, 08:01:49 PM
Well I haven't any people IRL say anything like that.

Besides Delta residents, though, most people I've conversed with about the flood are college students and their families. If I have to explain one more time that Memphis is on a bluff....

LOL...I bet that can be annoying too. This event certainly teaches us part of why the founders of Memphis chose this particular spot on the bluff...not without problems but we're not seeing all of downtown under water unless we're in something like a 2500+ year event...very fortunate...we don't even require levees for most of the downtown area like most other MS River cities to protect it.

The sad thing about the crest...its really pretty basic math if you think about it. As a crest occurs...the rate of rise is going to slow tremendously as it reaches the peak...just like any basic curve on a graph. Obviously that's what the hydrographs show starting to occur and continuing to occur in the forecast...people just assume its going to rise a foot or more a day until Wednesday then all of a sudden it stops...like a triangle I guess.  :D
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on May 07, 2011, 08:22:20 PM
LOL...I bet that can be annoying too. This event certainly teaches us part of why the founders of Memphis chose this particular spot on the bluff...not without problems but we're not seeing all of downtown under water unless we're in something like a 2500+ year event...very fortunate...we don't even require levees for most of the downtown area like most other MS River cities to protect it.

The sad thing about the crest...its really pretty basic math if you think about it. As a crest occurs...the rate of rise is going to slow tremendously as it reaches the peak...just like any basic curve on a graph. Obviously that's what the hydrographs show starting to occur and continuing to occur in the forecast...people just assume its going to rise a foot or more a day until Wednesday then all of a sudden it stops...like a triangle I guess.  :D

People seem to assume the same with the length of days and the angle of the sun throughout the year.
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 07, 2011, 08:55:50 PM
beneficii:
your avatar is perfect for discussing the conspiracy theorists on this "MEG liar" crap... lol  :o : :panic::
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 07, 2011, 09:18:35 PM
LOL...I bet that can be annoying too. This event certainly teaches us part of why the founders of Memphis chose this particular spot on the bluff...not without problems but we're not seeing all of downtown under water unless we're in something like a 2500+ year event...very fortunate...we don't even require levees for most of the downtown area like most other MS River cities to protect it.

The sad thing about the crest...its really pretty basic math if you think about it. As a crest occurs...the rate of rise is going to slow tremendously as it reaches the peak...just like any basic curve on a graph. Obviously that's what the hydrographs show starting to occur and continuing to occur in the forecast...people just assume its going to rise a foot or more a day until Wednesday then all of a sudden it stops...like a triangle I guess.  :D

Indeed it has! One of my best friend here is from Austin, TX and the parents came up today. They wanted to "make sure they got their baby out before Memphis went under water" and they then expressed concern about their future river crossing back into Lousiana... I was chuckling to myself a bit.



I can confirm that a couple of problems with levees are starting to occur in the NW Delta. My dad said a boil developed in Tunica County and they are dumping 1,600 pounds of sand on it. He also farms some in Coahoma County and he "heard" there was another boil down near Clarksdale. I'm sure it's nothing particularly pressing, but still shows the levees are feeling the strain of this (as they should in an event of this magnitude).

The FB group for the Mississippi River/Yazoo Basin has been pretty informative. I expect the worst levee problems to start to occur down there...
Title: Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 07, 2011, 09:22:02 PM
LOL. I can imagine the worry for the out-of-towners. :D Keep us updated on the levee situation down there. Hopefully they will hold as they have been upstream so far...
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 08, 2011, 09:04:15 AM
Quote
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
520 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-081400-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
520 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2011

...THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER GAGE AT MEMPHIS IS NOT FUNCTIONING
PROPERLY...

THE LATEST CORRECT READING WAS 47.23 FEET AT 2 AM CDT.

LATEST PROJECTED FORECAST READINGS:

AT 7 AM CDT 47.51 FEET.

AT NOON CDT 47.58 FEET.

THE MEMPHIS CORPS OF ENGINEERS HAS TECHNICIANS WORKING ON THE
GAGE AND WILL RESTORE IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 08, 2011, 11:09:59 AM
Looks like the gauge is back working again...47.54 at 10 AM.

Appears Osceola is beginning to crest at 47.5ft...yet again cresting earlier by a day and slightly lower by a half foot than predicted (and these were already adjusted predictions). I think we may see Memphis start cresting as early as tomorrow morning...there's not much room for it to be a lot lower than forecast at this point so it will come in somewhere between 47.5 and 48.0...just depending on how soon cresting begins.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 08, 2011, 11:36:48 AM
47.6 at 11 AM...

Meanwhile...looks like the MS River scale model at Mud Island is now actually part of the river...
(http://i56.tinypic.com/250jor8.jpg)

The flagpole area now also appears to be its own island...
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 08, 2011, 12:15:53 PM
Osceola crest has been lowered to 47.7 by tomorrow morning though it still appears a crest is occurring now or will at least before Today is over. Memphis remains 48.0 on Tuesday Morning. At this point I do think LMRFC is playing continuous catch-up like they have the past several days as the upstream crests have been occurring...I still think Memphis could crest as early as this time tomorrow...its taken about 24 hours for the crest to travel from Caruthersville to Osecola...and the distance to Memphis is about the same...

Osceola hydrograph...
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/osga4_hg.png)
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 08, 2011, 12:45:48 PM
Here's some real irony...

On this day...May 8...that Tom Lee Park and the Tom Lee Statue become further inundated (see the pictures from yesterday)...this is the actual day that the steamboat Norman sank in 1925...prompting Tom Lee to make those heroic rescues of 32 people from the water 86 years ago!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Lee_Park#Sinking_of_the_M.E.Norman
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Drew_ on May 08, 2011, 02:53:53 PM
wow the guy couldn't even swim and went in anyway...a real hero for sure.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 08, 2011, 04:48:54 PM
Usace press conf on now, says crest will not start dropping for a wk to 10 days.
Loosahatichie will back up until ms river gets below 47. Largest concern is the vol of water headed to vicksburg and natchez. There's talk of blowing lake ponchatrain.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: justinmundie on May 08, 2011, 05:39:59 PM
Saw this on twitter. Is it safe to assume this gauge isn't accurate? If not, how did they measure stuff in prior floods?

http://yfrog.com/h797dtepj
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 08, 2011, 05:56:45 PM
Saw this on twitter. Is it safe to assume this gauge isn't accurate? If not, how did they measure stuff in prior floods?

http://yfrog.com/h797dtepj

The Beale St gauge is the old gauge...that was used in the historic floods. It's 1.7 feet lower in base elevation than the base elevation at the current gauge used Today...which is an automated (computer) gauge...so the records have been adjusted to account for that. You have to subtract 1.7' from its level to get the actual reading you would see on the automated gauge Today. Its located further downriver south of the old I-55 bridge near the Metal Museum.

This is a part of the problem with the "conspiracy theories" going on about the NWS and them "lying" about the real numbers. People are seeing that and assuming its near 49' right now. They've been explaining this difference at every press briefing but nobody seems to want to understand this very simple issue...

MEG has been taking manual readings at the Beale St gauge when we've had the malfunctions the past few days...applying that 1.7' subtraction when taking it. The manual readings and the automated readings (when working properly) have lined up near perfectly with that 1.7' difference that is to be expected. Officially...the river is still under 48 feet.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: ChrisPC on May 08, 2011, 09:18:58 PM
Usace press conf on now, says crest will not start dropping for a wk to 10 days.
Loosahatichie will back up until ms river gets below 47. Largest concern is the vol of water headed to vicksburg and natchez. There's talk of blowing lake ponchatrain.

Do you mean the Bonnet Carre spillway? That's been used several times to relieve pressure. Apparently, they also might open the Morganza floodway, which also has been used a few times. It follows the path of the Atchafalaya River. This river actually flows straight south into the Gulf from the Mississippi and Red rivers, and probably would be the main channel by now, if not for man.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 08, 2011, 09:23:04 PM
Looks like the Memphis gauge is down again but the readings are just simply missing ("M" on the Army Corps Site) now instead of the false spikes or dips we were getting before...which is probably a good thing given what's happened the last two times.

MEG sent out their evening flood statement shortly ago saying 47.7 as of 8 PM...which is about the same as the last correct readings.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 08, 2011, 09:26:38 PM
Just got back into town and things are pretty crazy down here.  The police are checking ID's of people trying to get on Mud Island at the base of the Auction Street bridge, which means it took me 30 minutes to go about a block and a half (because of red lights/traffic coming from three directions onto the bridge).  Looks like they made an artificial levee out of two of the traffic lanes in front of HarborTown on Island Drive by dumping about 3 feet of gravel/sand on the road.  No sign of water anywhere on the roads yet, so we should be fine.  Just the inconvience of coming and going everyday this week.  Much better than being evacuated or flooded out though!  I'll be getting lots of pictures tomorrow.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 08, 2011, 09:34:37 PM
Just to add what I was saying earlier about the current gauge and Beale St. gauge...this information comes from a paper done within the Army Corps of Engineers...

Quote
The highest river stage at Memphis was recorded February 9, 1937, when the river reached 50.4 feet on the Beale Street gauge (234.31 feet NGVD).

So...subtract the 1.7 foot difference mentioned earlier...and you get 48.7 ft...which is the equivalent record level on the new gauge setting used in the modern era. Just to confirm the records were in fact adjusted for this change and that the Beale St numbers will run higher than the current NWS automated gauge (when working properly of course!)

Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 09, 2011, 08:43:38 AM
Some fantastic news...looks like the river really leveled out last night...between 47.5 and 47.7. Appears we're cresting even earlier than I was thinking may occur. Suppose we could creep up another tenth or two...but starting to look like we'll come just barely short of the 48' mark...repeating the upstream trends of an early and low crest.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 09, 2011, 09:48:21 AM
The gauge is offline again...but they are continuing to take estimated manual readings. The readings aren't getting into the system...however. The latest estimated reading was 47.7 at 7 AM. Unfortunately...don't know if it will be back up Today to get the actual highest crest point...we may have to settle for a "best guess" 47.7 or 47.8 crest when all is said and done...

The Tunica gauge has also been offline since yesterday...so not sure if it will be back up before crest.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Charles L. on May 09, 2011, 09:54:10 AM
Here are the latest predictions...

Quote
LATEST PROJECTED FORECAST READINGS:

AT 1 PM CDT 47.9 FEET.

AT 7 PM CDT 48.0 FEET.

Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 09, 2011, 10:03:17 AM
***Temporary Gauge has been Set Up at Memphis***

http://www2.mvr.usace.army.mil/WaterControl/shefdata2.cfm?sid=FS103&d=7&dt=S

Latest reading is 47.78

EDIT...looks like they are trying to get this integrated into AHPS. MEG has also issued an SPS repeating this info above...
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 09, 2011, 10:37:10 AM
Per Twitter...Diane Sawyer from ABC News is in Memphis Today and will be anchoring their evening news from Memphis tonight. Time Magazine is also apparently in town doing a piece about the flooding. Pretty much every other network and news organization has at least one person in Memphis today as well. Still being overshadowed some by the Bin Laden news...but at least the flooding is getting national coverage.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 09, 2011, 11:28:33 AM
11AM reading on the (temporary) Memphis gauge now at 47.82...may be making one more push here for 48ft in the coming hours.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 09, 2011, 01:00:02 PM
I was driving back from Marion yesterday evening, and was behind KFOR ch4 truck as they exited onto Riverside drive. Downtown was packed like a friday night.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: marjl21 on May 09, 2011, 02:16:06 PM
Mud Island Pics near crest

Water behind my apartment
(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/100_0023.jpg)

North end of Island Drive (note water over the road in the foreground and more significantly in the distance)
(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/100_0039.jpg)

Temporary Levee over Island Drive to keep traffic flowing
(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/100_0025.jpg)

(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/100_0032.jpg)

Looking south from the roundabout torwards the RiverPark
(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/100_0034.jpg)

Wolf River nearly covering the rail bridge just west of Highway 51 (the railroad is covered through this area)
(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/100_0038.jpg)
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 09, 2011, 02:59:53 PM
Nice pics marjl!

2p reading at the temporary site was 47.84...oh so close to technically being 47.9. MEG now says the crest should be as early as 7p Tonight...which seems pretty reasonable...we're technically in cresting phase right now...just a slow process of course.

Would really like to see some updated Tunica pics...haven't seen any since Saturday...especially now with their gauge broken too and no estimated/temporary readings coming from there.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 09, 2011, 03:16:16 PM
Some good news...Eastbound I-40 through the White River is now open...Westbound lanes will remain closed though until the water recedes further.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 09, 2011, 05:58:06 PM
I was driving back from Marion yesterday evening, and was behind KFOR ch4 truck as they exited onto Riverside drive. Downtown was packed like a friday night.

Apparently, KFOR4 is out of Oklahoma.
Everyone is showing up to the party!

(http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc421/wxcm/kfor4.jpg)
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: toastido on May 09, 2011, 05:59:15 PM
Is the Pyramid under water yet? ;)
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 09, 2011, 06:11:19 PM
Apparently, KFOR4 is out of Oklahoma.
Everyone is showing up to the party!

(http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc421/wxcm/kfor4.jpg)


They're here in Memphis covering the NBA Playoffs (Grizzlies vs OKC Thunder)...not the flooding...I have to imagine.

Is the Pyramid under water yet? ;)

LOL...no. Its one of the few areas of downtown that do need a levee to protect it...and those levees are holding. Its empty anyway...wouldn't hurt if it flooded.  :D It has been the operations center of sandbagging operations this past week...however.

At any rate...Memphis led all of the network newscasts this evening. Not sure we've had a story that would've done that since the MLK assassination...to be honest.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 09, 2011, 07:05:53 PM
Some good news...Eastbound I-40 through the White River is now open...Westbound lanes will remain closed though until the water recedes further.
LOL... I literally was 30 minutes into the detour on my way home when they announced this!  All I could do was laugh.  On the detour though I got to go though Clarendon south of I40 on the white river.  It appeared that town was hit pretty hard by flooding on the White river.  There was a very large Red Cross presence there.

On a related note, hat's off to AR's handling of the detour.  There were lots of signs to direct the way with a police presence at every turn.  They even had the National guard MPs in place so local law enforcement was not too stretched with this task.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 09, 2011, 07:28:29 PM
Here are a couple of pics from the crest in Dyer County. The first pic is a 2000 acre farm that is supposed to be protected by a 15 ft levy. The second pic is water to the top of the Great River Road. You have to be familiar with this levy to appreciate this. The water against this levy is 20 to 30 ft deep.


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 09, 2011, 10:18:49 PM
They're here in Memphis covering the NBA Playoffs (Grizzlies vs OKC Thunder)...not the flooding...I have to imagine.

Ahh... didnt think of this   ::doh::   ::bagoverhead::  ... but they did slow to about 20mph on the bridge when they got over mud island... thats why I immediately thought of the flooding coverage.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 09, 2011, 11:55:14 PM
Looks like Memphis has crested. Now the slow fall, which wont mean alot for those already flooded. The extent of the flooding along the tributaries is extensive, and just about as exptected. The total cost of the MS River flooding from Cairo to New Orleans is going to be just massive.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 10, 2011, 07:15:57 AM
hey bugalou, since youre back in town, any chance you could run down and snap us some new casino pics?
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WXHD on May 10, 2011, 10:01:29 AM
Boston's Big Picture always does a wonderful job. Some amazing photo's.

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/05/mississippi_river_flooding.html
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 10, 2011, 10:34:59 AM
hey bugalou, since youre back in town, any chance you could run down and snap us some new casino pics?

I will try.  This video shows some pretty awesome footage though.

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/mississippi-river-flooding-levees-hold-13568432
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 10, 2011, 10:35:15 AM
Looks like the official crest was 47.85 though there was a small spike to 47.87 after the crest was called at 2 AM...it will probably fluctuate around the crest level for the rest of the day...before the slow fall begins. Probably will remain in major flood (46ft) into the weekend.

Hilariously...still reading conspiracy theories this morning...people believing the river really crested at 50 or 52 feet...beyond the record...and that the NWS didn't want to give Memphis a record even though cities both upstream and downstream have/will be setting a new record. Have to wonder how and even why people manage to think up this stuff. At any rate...I think we all know that if we were really 52 feet...this would be far worse than it is.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 10, 2011, 10:40:32 AM
Looks like the official crest was 47.85 though there was a small spike to 47.87 after the crest was called at 2 AM...it will probably fluctuate around the crest level for the rest of the day...before the slow fall begins. Probably will remain in major flood (46ft) into the weekend.

Hilariously...still reading conspiracy theories this morning...people believing the river really crested at 50 or 52 feet...beyond the record...and that the NWS didn't want to give Memphis a record even though cities both upstream and downstream have/will be setting a new record. Have to wonder how and even why people manage to think up this stuff. At any rate...I think we all know that if we were really 52 feet...this would be far worse than it is.

There are a whole lot of these type of people too.  ::)  I frequently lurk godlikeproductions.com as I find them very entertaining.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 10, 2011, 10:47:48 AM
I will try.  This video shows some pretty awesome footage though.

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/mississippi-river-flooding-levees-hold-13568432

Hope you can get some pictures. Ever since the gauge has been down I've been wanting to see how much things have changed. Saw some news video out of there yesterday...which gave a bit of perspective. I also saw pictures out of the Tunica cutoff where they're saying the homes there may be a complete loss...and that it would be better for people to just completely relocate inland and demolish that whole area when the waters recede. May be the worst off so far of anybody in the region.

Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 10, 2011, 10:52:42 AM
Front Page of MSNBC.com has a very large picture of Tunica featured as its main headline...

(http://msnbcmedia2.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/g-cvr-110510-miss-flooding-815a.grid-8x2.jpg)
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 10, 2011, 10:53:28 AM
Hope you can get some pictures. Ever since the gauge has been down I've been wanting to see how much things have changed. Saw some news video out of there yesterday...which gave a bit of perspective. I also saw pictures out of the Tunica cutoff where they're saying the homes there may be a complete loss...and that it would be better for people to just completely relocate inland and demolish that whole area when the waters recede. May be the worst off so far of anybody in the region.


That wouldn't surprise me.  While I was at the barge at Harrah's last week I was really struck by the strength of the current more than the volume of the water.  Anything in more than a foot of water is likely to sustain a lot of structural damage if it isn't just completely washed away.

I also look forward to all the dead fish laying around everywhere once this goes down here.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 10, 2011, 11:00:19 AM
Front Page of MSNBC.com has a very large picture of Tunica featured as its main headline...

(http://msnbcmedia2.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/g-cvr-110510-miss-flooding-815a.grid-8x2.jpg)

Ironically enough, the flood may have a silver lining for my company.  Many of the other casinos aside from Gold Strike did not put up many counter measures and the ones at Horseshoe and Road House are holding up quite well.  We may be poised to reopen much earlier than some of the other casinos.  The damage at Harrah's is looking to be quite minor as well.  The first floor of the hotel is mostly parking garage and the only real buildings we have flooded is warehouse space.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 10, 2011, 11:12:50 AM
Ironically enough, the flood may have a silver lining for my company.  Many of the other casinos aside from Gold Strike did not put up many counter measures and the ones at Horseshoe and Road House are holding up quite well.  We may be poised to reopen much earlier than some of the other casinos.  The damage at Harrah's is looking to be quite minor as well.  The first floor of the hotel is mostly parking garage and the only real buildings we have flooded is warehouse space.

Yeah...I'm going to be very interested how soon the casinos will be able to reopen and what kind of cleanup will be necessary. Will depend on just how fast the waters recede and what has to be done for cleanup. Glad to hear that maybe your company will have the lighter load of the others.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 10, 2011, 02:24:11 PM
We just had our PR person on CNN talking about our casinos.  Seeing my everyday job on CNN so often is a little surreal to me!

We are starting to already talk about reopening.  Horseshoe and Roadhouse maybe be reopen in as little as two weeks baring and major catastrophe which is good news for not just me, but the economy in Northern Tunica county as well.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 10, 2011, 02:53:23 PM
Fantastic panoramic view of the Mississippi River @ Memphis...29 Floors Up...Taken earlier Today by Patrick T. Mullins...
(http://www.patricktmullins.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Memphis-Panoramic-River-Stage-47_87ft-5_10_20111-1024x364.jpg)

Much larger full resolution picture here...
http://www.patricktmullins.com/mississippi-river-flood-photos-2011/

Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: toastido on May 10, 2011, 02:55:09 PM
(http://i54.tinypic.com/3492rme.png)

One of our local mets, known for his typos.  (He's the one that said the storms were pooping up earlier in the year.)

So, has the river actually crested, or is that just hearsay?
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 10, 2011, 02:57:19 PM
(http://i54.tinypic.com/3492rme.png)

One of our local mets, known for his typos.  (He's the one that said the storms were pooping up earlier in the year.)

So, has the river actually crested, or is that just hearsay?

LOL!

Yes...it crested this morning at Memphis...though its still in crest near/at the same highs (47.7 - 47.9ft)...and won't begin to recede significantly for several more days.


Edited to Add...since we went over to a new page...all make sure again to check out that panoramic viewpoint from Memphis a couple of posts back. Amazing shot!
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 10, 2011, 03:12:58 PM
Fantastic panoramic view of the Mississippi River @ Memphis...29 Floors Up...Taken earlier Today by Patrick T. Mullins...
(http://www.patricktmullins.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Memphis-Panoramic-River-Stage-47_87ft-5_10_20111-1024x364.jpg)

Much larger full resolution picture here...
http://www.patricktmullins.com/mississippi-river-flood-photos-2011/



Wow, just wow. Although keeping life and personal property is most important, I would say that Mud Island River Park will be closed for some time to come. It looks to me that the ampitheater may be flooded as well. Obviously the south end of the island is lower than Harbor Town.

Am hearing reports that nearly 3500 homes and business have sustained significant water damage, and that number may be raised soon. There are rampant reports of snakes; I cant imagine moving back into some of those homes.

The total cost of this disaster from one end to the other will be just staggering.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 10, 2011, 03:25:24 PM
Here is a little persective on what should be visible looking at the Mud Island Park:

(http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/5607/normalmemphisskyline288.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/854/normalmemphisskyline288.jpg/)

(http://img40.imageshack.us/img40/303/memphispanoramicriverst.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/40/memphispanoramicriverst.jpg/)





Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 10, 2011, 03:33:24 PM
Good perspective shot, Curt. Really shows you just how much water has come up on Mud Island. Going to be a massive cleanup there once its all gone.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 10, 2011, 03:54:02 PM
Commercial Appeal is putting out a special edition tomorrow on the flooding. Will likely be a keeper for future generations...I'm sure...
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 10, 2011, 04:06:59 PM
Some pictures of Harrahs, Roadhouse, and Horseshoe from today:

(http://i.imgur.com/fsJ1K.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/AyxS1.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/iNIBG.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/qnGoy.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/fctnp.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/MO7vS.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/rZveS.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/vHINY.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/iU5Om.jpg)
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 10, 2011, 04:40:04 PM
Nice pics bugalou! Thanks for getting them!

Definitely looks like your work there is keeping the water back. Good job!
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 10, 2011, 04:46:55 PM
I have access to a whole bunch of aerial photos taken of the Tunica Casinos yesterday.  Here are a few below (including one of the River Park). If anyone has a web server, I will share the entire set (100+ pics).

(http://i.imgur.com/dksDY.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/TTfyh.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/9wmW4.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/EIU3e.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/qcL5E.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/sEo8N.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/zB3cv.jpg)

Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 10, 2011, 05:53:17 PM
Wow...fantastic images! Would definitely like to see some more if we have somebody that could host them...

Meanwhile...NASA images Today of Memphis Before and After...
(http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50549/memphis_tm5_2010111.jpg)
(http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50549/memphis_tm5_2011130.jpg)

Follow the link and download the large image if you can...it has the entire perspective from about Caruthersville to Tunica...quite an image...

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=50549&src=eoa-iotd
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 10, 2011, 06:51:17 PM
Hope you can get some pictures. Ever since the gauge has been down I've been wanting to see how much things have changed. Saw some news video out of there yesterday...which gave a bit of perspective. I also saw pictures out of the Tunica cutoff where they're saying the homes there may be a complete loss...and that it would be better for people to just completely relocate inland and demolish that whole area when the waters recede. May be the worst off so far of anybody in the region.



Yeah, Tunica Cutoff is 6 miles west of Tunica. Everyone is saying they won't be able to come back but it will be interesting to see how they will enforce that. Homes there are almost sure to be a total loss.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 10, 2011, 08:44:37 PM
I have access to a whole bunch of aerial photos taken of the Tunica Casinos yesterday.  Here are a few below (including one of the River Park). If anyone has a web server, I will share the entire set (100+ pics).

Ive got a webserver. Give me some time to figure out how to add you an acct, and Ill send you a username and password. Its been dormant for quite some time. I was using it with some server side slideshow prog for concert pics ive taken, but removed it when too many security holes were discovered. There have been several updates to the software since then though. Im going to have to remember how to do that.

EDIT: Actually everything is still pretty much intact. I just need to upgrade the gallery software. Bugalou: shoot me a private mail message. Ive got a couple questions for you as I set it up.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on May 10, 2011, 10:02:10 PM
Jon Stewart's making fun of the media coverage of the flooding on the Daily Show.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Timothy on May 10, 2011, 11:42:29 PM
Jon Stewart's making fun of the media coverage of the flooding on the Daily Show.

This guy?

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_5gB0MyH_Pyg/S_rb6yUEJtI/AAAAAAAAA1I/VOeZWAmWL-w/s400/jonstewart.jpg)

Didn't see the spot of him making fun of the coverage, but sometimes I think he just makes fun of stuff because he can whether it makes sense(or its in good taste) or not. If its in the media its fair game to him.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: beneficii on May 11, 2011, 12:51:19 AM
There is coverage of the flooding on Nikkei's news service.  The article focused on Memphis and Shelby County, even mentioning Shelby County by name.

EDIT: It's also on FNN, on video.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 11, 2011, 03:29:08 AM
Tunica has actually gotten some pretty extensive coverage today. Strange to see very familiar faces on the news. Huffington Post's article here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/11/mississippi-delta-braces-for-historic-flooding_n_860362.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/11/mississippi-delta-braces-for-historic-flooding_n_860362.html)
^Mentions economic damage in dollars so far in Memphis)

Anderson Cooper coverage here (love that he mentions he mispronounced the name)... This will probably be the weathe event of the century on a local level. Not that it won't be a huge even for the record books over a large area, I just can't see anything being bigger than this in the county because it's so rural. It would take a lot to get national coverage like this.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/05/11/flooding/index.html?hpt=C1 (http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/05/11/flooding/index.html?hpt=C1)
^Good casino shots and pretty excellent coverage.


Reading some articles it's interesting to see that the flash flood from April 26/27 caused quite a lot of damage, particularly in Desoto, Tunica, Coahoma. I was surprised it didn't get more attention.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: ChrisPC on May 11, 2011, 11:02:46 AM
Fox News is live from Casino Center right now. CNN and HLN were actually live in front of Gold Strike, showing the barriers.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 12, 2011, 12:38:59 AM
People downriver seem to be surprised how bad it already is... not that the river is running above forecast down there. I guess it's just the reality of it.

Locally the Tunica Cutoff residents are very angry because they aren't allowed back. I don't quite understand the anger. Obviously their homes will be flooded for another week or so and once the water recedes below their homes the roads will be underwater until very late May. I guess they want to be allowed back to see the extent of the damage? I'm been around a few Cutoff residents and I can't quite tell if they just want back to see the damage or what.

I wonder how much monetary damage this flood is going to cost. I'd imagine several billion at the least.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 12, 2011, 06:13:50 AM
People downriver seem to be surprised how bad it already is... not that the river is running above forecast down there. I guess it's just the reality of it.

Locally the Tunica Cutoff residents are very angry because they aren't allowed back. I don't quite understand the anger. Obviously their homes will be flooded for another week or so and once the water recedes below their homes the roads will be underwater until very late May. I guess they want to be allowed back to see the extent of the damage? I'm been around a few Cutoff residents and I can't quite tell if they just want back to see the damage or what.

I wonder how much monetary damage this flood is going to cost. I'd imagine several billion at the least.

Projected cost in Shelby Co alone so far is 320 million, which will most likely go higher. As a whole, from Cairo to NOLA, projections are now at 4 billion. So that's 2 billion disasters within a month.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on May 12, 2011, 07:08:23 AM
It makes me cringe to think of water sitting in some of those houses for an extended period of time as this is being described.  My house was flooded for about a day and a half last year, and that was bad enough.

The way this sounds, some structures may be in flood water for a week or two...
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 12, 2011, 07:42:30 AM
Is Tunica Cutoff on the river side of the levee?

Even when the water goes down, theres going to be a mold problem, snakes, dead fish....among other things...

I went and checked out  the levee at Daily's Boat Dock in Marion on Mothers Day. Since Im technically family, I was able to walk up on the levee. They have a boat locked up to a telephone pole nearby so they can go out and move the dock everyday, and move the bird feeders higher into the trees. If you move the boat, theres 10 inch nightcrawlers...and if you scratch the gravel road right at the water line, there are hundreds of worms in the ground, trying to escape the water. Just think of the houses that are submerged. All that sediment that is moving through (assuming its on the river side of the levee)... Youre going to have to bulldoze those houses and burn everything. Theres no way youre going to dry out and move back in down there. And of course, when these people evacuated, they werent allowed to move their furniture out, right? They just grabbed a few important things on short notice and split, right? I had Hurricane Elvis damage back in '03. It rained in my house for a couple weeks before my insurance co got their act together and got me covered up... We tore down everything to the studs and bleached everything... It was open and dry for a couple years while I fought with my ins co and was dealing with my re-builder's filing of Ch 7 bankruptcy, so there was plenty of time to air out... but then again, my place wasnt submerged. Just going through that headache, I can only imagine what these people are going to have to deal with.

And what about mosquito problems? How much worse is this flooding going to be on that issue?
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 12, 2011, 09:41:14 AM
Thanks to WFayetteTN, I was able to get all the pictures I was talking about earlier of the flooding at the Tunica casinos online where everyone can see them.  I will be adding more as I get them.

http://basichookup.com/flood/thumbnails.php?album=1
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 12, 2011, 10:09:33 AM
Thanks to WFayetteTN, I was able to get all the pictures I was talking about earlier of the flooding at the Tunica casinos online where everyone can see them.  I will be adding more as I get them.

http://basichookup.com/flood/thumbnails.php?album=1

You can go to http://www.memphisareaflood.com (http://www.memphisareaflood.com) and get there too. If any of the other regulars on here have any flood photos you want to share, youre welcome to register on the site and upload them. Right now they are all in one folder. I need to look into organization, in my documentation.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 12, 2011, 01:00:29 PM
The unofficial word so far is Horseshoe and Roadhouse will reopen next weekend.  Needless to say next week is going to be very busy for me as we bring up all the computer servers and network infrastructure.  No word yet for Harrah's as it has taken some water damage (nothing major yet though it seems).  I assume Gold strike will be on pace to open with Horseshoe, but I really have no idea about the other casinos.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: PigsEye on May 12, 2011, 02:08:28 PM
Projected cost in Shelby Co alone so far is 320 million, which will most likely go higher. As a whole, from Cairo to NOLA, projections are now at 4 billion. So that's 2 billion disasters within a month.

$500 million in crop losses in Arkansas.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 12, 2011, 02:48:05 PM
$500 million in crop losses in Arkansas.

I can only imagine what the Birds Point Floodway loss is. But then again, there is a slight difference between knowing youre in a floodway...and flooding in areas that wouldnt normally flood.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 12, 2011, 03:12:11 PM
Wow, I had no idea about the Old River Control Structure/Atchafalaya/Morganza Spillway stuff. Fascinating.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: InMemphis on May 12, 2011, 05:47:57 PM
Have there been any confirmed snake bites?
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 12, 2011, 06:52:51 PM
Possible first fatality in Memphis as a body was found in the floodwaters of North Memphis near Wells Station and Orchi. I have a feeling more may come to light as the waters go down. Hope not but afraid so.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 12, 2011, 08:26:01 PM
Thanks to WFayetteTN, I was able to get all the pictures I was talking about earlier of the flooding at the Tunica casinos online where everyone can see them.  I will be adding more as I get them.

http://basichookup.com/flood/thumbnails.php?album=1

Wow. Great stuff! Thanks for posting all of them...and to WFayette for setting it up to allow it!
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 12, 2011, 08:29:47 PM
FYI...Commercial Appeal is reporting this evening that President Obama...who is going to be in Memphis on Monday...will be touring flood damage and meeting with flood victims and local officials/responders.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 12, 2011, 08:32:35 PM
FYI...Commercial Appeal is reporting this evening that President Obama...who is going to be in Memphis on Monday...will be touring flood damage and meeting with flood victims and local officials/responders.

I wonder if he will come down to the casinos.  It seems like everyone else on a national level has.  I hope not though, work is already a circus right now without a presidential visit. :)
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 12, 2011, 08:35:21 PM
Wow. Great stuff! Thanks for posting all of them...and to WFayette for setting it up to allow it!

Glad to share!  I have a bunch more ground level pics I will upload there at some point too.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 12, 2011, 10:57:57 PM
If anyone else has flood pictures to share, you can register an acct (free) and I'll add you to the uploader group. Right now Ive got it kinda locked down. http://www.memphisareaflood.com (http://www.memphisareaflood.com) is my redirector so its easier to remember.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on May 14, 2011, 11:37:52 AM
Here is video of the measures someone took to save their house from flooding on the White River in Arkansas:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgKsehkcIF8&feature=channel_video_title (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgKsehkcIF8&feature=channel_video_title)

Pretty amazing... and impressive.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 14, 2011, 06:49:02 PM
I almost forgot to mention this last week on Thursday: A sink hole opened up in the ground at the Harrah's Casino RV park.  I am not sure if this is related to the river flooding or not.  The park is about a half a mile from the levee system so it was probably just a coincidence.   I will try and get some pictures next week.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: ChrisPC on May 14, 2011, 10:43:54 PM
Here is video of the measures someone took to save their house from flooding on the White River in Arkansas:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgKsehkcIF8&feature=channel_video_title (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgKsehkcIF8&feature=channel_video_title)

Pretty amazing... and impressive.

My wife's grandma lives about half a mile from the Yazoo River in MS, and her neighbor is building a levee around both their houses.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 15, 2011, 09:09:44 AM
I almost forgot to mention this last week on Thursday: A sink hole opened up in the ground at the Harrah's Casino RV park.  I am not sure if this is related to the river flooding or not.  The park is about a half a mile from the levee system so it was probably just a coincidence.   I will try and get some pictures next week.
I think theres going to be alot of problems like this come up when the water drops. Flowing water over roads for extended time.. I bet theres going to be alot of places that are washed out or very weak. I sure wouldnt wanna be the guy who drives on them for the first time. but Im sure sinkholes will be happening around alot too.  ill be interested to see the pics.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WXRocker on May 16, 2011, 03:56:07 PM
No matter what, this is going to be hellish for infrastructure.  The damage will be widespread and intense.  My heart goes out to all of the folks who are going to have to not only deal with the immediate damage but the long term damage as well.  Mental and emotional toll is going to be incredible. :(
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: BRUCE on May 16, 2011, 04:20:42 PM
i know things are slowly getting better ... with the river receading n such... but i am afraid a big rain maker is shaping up later this week or by the weekend... a cold front looks to stall out around the midsouth according to the gfs latest runs. we just dont need this heavy rain while people are trying to recover getting back home and cleaning up their area. something to watch as the week goes along.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: justinmundie on May 16, 2011, 04:33:39 PM
i know things are slowly getting better ... with the river receading n such... but i am afraid a big rain maker is shaping up later this week or by the weekend... a cold front looks to stall out around the midsouth according to the gfs latest runs. we just dont need this heavy rain while people are trying to recover getting back home and cleaning up their area. something to watch as the week goes along.

You have to remember that part of what caused this flood is snow melt from up north.

Your biggest floods most often coincide in some way with snow melt up river... the exception being, of course, 1993.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: StormNine on May 16, 2011, 07:56:37 PM
Remember last year there were a lot of problems with sinkholes and things like that.  Including when I-24 developed a big sinkhole in Grundy County.  Also mosquitoes will be a big issue as well as things will remain damp for awhile.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 17, 2011, 06:44:49 AM
You have to remember that part of what caused this flood is snow melt from up north.

Your biggest floods most often coincide in some way with snow melt up river... the exception being, of course, 1993.

While snow melt played some role, the biggest player in this was flood were the two heavy rain events and a couple other heavy rain events up in the Ohio Valley.

The flood during March was more a snow melt flood, coupled with some heavy rain to the north.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on May 17, 2011, 07:08:57 AM
I would think the snow melt was the bigger player here. Without it I doubt you would have anything of this magnitude.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: justinmundie on May 17, 2011, 11:20:14 AM
While snow melt played some role, the biggest player in this was flood were the two heavy rain events and a couple other heavy rain events up in the Ohio Valley.

The flood during March was more a snow melt flood, coupled with some heavy rain to the north.

What was the river level at before the rains hit? I'm pretty sure it was all ready above normal due to snow melt.

The mississippi is a giant river. It requires way more than a few days of torrential rains to get that thing to rise. There was clearly a lot of rain, with significant flooding on the tributaries, but without the spring rise of the river... we' wouldn't have come close to historic.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on May 17, 2011, 11:51:33 AM
I seem to recall early flooding concerns voiced about the Mississippi from the snowmelt alone before the spring systems aggravated the situation.

Both factors weigh into what is happening, IMO.

Note: snowmelt is actually at peak in parts of the northern Rockies, right now.  I noticed some flash flood warnings were in effect just a day or two ago up in Idaho and other areas just because of snowmelt from record snowfall in some of those areas over the course of the winter.

The mountain streams carrying off the snowmelt east of the Divide ultimately empty into the Mississippi.  Snowmelt has been ongoing for a couple of months now.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 17, 2011, 04:28:56 PM
If I had to assign a % cause to snowmelt and hvy rains, it would be 1/3 snowmelt, 2/3 hvy rain episodes. Timing of each also played a huge role as well. The historical Lower MS River floods (below the confluence of OH River at Cairo IL) all shared in common a much wetter than avg OH Valley season in addition to heavier flows from the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. The '93 MS River flood never really affected locations below New Madrid as most of the repeated hvy rain events only involved the mid and upper MS River valleys. The river was wide enough below New Madrid to absorb all of that rain/snowmelt. So IMO, it wasnt as much snowmelt per se, as it was the timing of the snow melt in combo with the heavy rains the area experienced in March and April. We always have a rise in the spring due to snowmelt here; its usually not a big deal by itself.

FYI- Ball State Uninv is studying the costs of this particular flood. In Memphis alone, they now estimate $750 million in damages, with the distinct possibility that it tops 1 billion before its all said and done. The total costs of the flood will most likely go down as one of the largest disasters in modern history.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on May 17, 2011, 04:58:11 PM
Yep... a perfect storm combination of factors is leading to this flooding event.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 17, 2011, 07:15:50 PM
I have noticed some pretty major seepage under the levees coming up casino center drive past old 61.  The fields are beginning to flood and there is constantly running water in the drainage ditches.  It's probably not a big deal, but I have never seen this happen before with previous flooding.

Here are some pictures of the sink holes at the Harrah's RV park.  It is unclear what if anything the river had to do with this and it is likely due to the heavy rains.  This is about 1/2 mile from the Levee system.

(http://i.imgur.com/JZJWP.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/z1YPD.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/0tpUr.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/o6cNW.jpg)
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: ChrisPC on May 18, 2011, 02:10:48 PM
Fox News reporting one casino already open, some others to open this weekend.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 18, 2011, 03:26:29 PM
Fox News reporting one casino already open, some others to open this weekend.

Gold Strike beat us to the punch and opened today.  Roadhouse will be opened Thursday morning and Horseshoe Friday.  We were on target to open Horseshoe today or Thursday but some events happened (which I cannot disclose yet unfortunately) this past weekend to cause the delay.  Either way it goes we should be up and running for the weekend.  Our current target for Harrah's is next Friday but that of course is very tentative still. 

I have not heard much about the other casinos other than the damage at Ballys was "extensive".
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 18, 2011, 05:15:39 PM
I have noticed some pretty major seepage under the levees coming up casino center drive past old 61.  The fields are beginning to flood and there is constantly running water in the drainage ditches.  It's probably not a big deal, but I have never seen this happen before with previous flooding.

Here are some pictures of the sink holes at the Harrah's RV park.  It is unclear what if anything the river had to do with this and it is likely due to the heavy rains.  This is about 1/2 mile from the Levee system.

(http://i.imgur.com/JZJWP.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/z1YPD.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/0tpUr.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/o6cNW.jpg)

The seepage is ok as long as the water is clear. When sand starts coming out in the water, that is where the concern will be of potential levee deterioration.

When the river is high there is always seepage to some degree around west memphis/marion.

Just remember, rain water is muddy, river seepage is clear.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 19, 2011, 04:32:40 AM
What was the river level at before the rains hit? I'm pretty sure it was all ready above normal due to snow melt.

The mississippi is a giant river. It requires way more than a few days of torrential rains to get that thing to rise. There was clearly a lot of rain, with significant flooding on the tributaries, but without the spring rise of the river... we' wouldn't have come close to historic.

Right, the flood would not have been of this magnitude without the snow melt. But the snow melt occurs every year; therefore I see the heavy rain as being the more anomalous factor here.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 19, 2011, 04:37:25 AM
http://www.highwatermusicfestival.com/ (http://www.highwatermusicfestival.com/)

Some Tunica residents are throwing a High Water Music Festival this Saturday for local flood victims. Come if you can!

Watching the events continue to unfold downriver has been amazing.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on May 19, 2011, 07:05:25 AM
But the snow melt occurs every year;

But apparently it was much more this year compared to most years.  Heavier than normal snowfall in places up north led to more snowmelt runoff than normal...
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on May 19, 2011, 07:29:17 AM
But apparently it was much more this year compared to most years.  Heavier than normal snowfall in places up north led to more snowmelt runoff than normal...

Yep, the upper Mississippi river area had a record snowpack during the last winter.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: justinmundie on May 19, 2011, 10:52:03 AM
Right, the flood would not have been of this magnitude without the snow melt. But the snow melt occurs every year; therefore I see the heavy rain as being the more anomalous factor here.

Right - and my point at the beginning is that it takes an INSANE amount of rain to make the mississippi rise to the levels we just saw without upstream influences, such as snow melt.

It would take twice the amount of rain received, I would think to reach that level without snow melt
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on May 19, 2011, 11:39:23 AM
But apparently it was much more this year compared to most years.  Heavier than normal snowfall in places up north led to more snowmelt runoff than normal...

That's probable. I'd like some hard figures to see how unusual the snow melt was this year compared to the past. The Mississippi already had a somewhat significant flood in March of this year. Anyway, the flood couldn't have happened without the snowmelt. The main key, a Curt points out, to a big flood on the lower MS is snowmelt and heavy rain in the Ohio Valley.

I had the opportunity to go behind the levee to go check out some hunting camps around Dundee, MS. The water is still very high, there are a lot of snakes (people weren't exaggerating). Most of the hunting camps are total losses.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on May 19, 2011, 01:21:45 PM
The main key, a Curt points out, to a big flood on the lower MS is snowmelt and heavy rain in the Ohio Valley.

No question about that.

I think the point in all this is that both excessive snowmelt further upstream and also heavy rain events this spring are contributing to this.

Without either, I don't think we would be seeing nearly the event that's occurring on the Mississippi.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: aubieman on May 19, 2011, 01:52:51 PM
Correct me if I my thinking is wrong, because I don't claim to know much about flooding, but does the fact that there are more flood controls upstream mean that the southern portions of the MS face more water than they would have otherwise.  For example, might the events of the 1920s and 1930s have involved more water flowing in the river but lower levels on the southern end because the river had already diffused so much water along the way?
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Thundersnow on May 19, 2011, 02:30:34 PM
Correct me if I my thinking is wrong, because I don't claim to know much about flooding, but does the fact that there are more flood controls upstream mean that the southern portions of the MS face more water than they would have otherwise.  For example, might the events of the 1920s and 1930s have involved more water flowing in the river but lower levels on the southern end because the river had already diffused so much water along the way?

Well, I think ultimately, the water doesn't really "diffuse."  I suppose it might evaporate some if more river bottomland is allowed to flood further north.  But, I don't know if that makes much difference, since most of the water is going to naturally go downstream, where the Mississippi River eventually catches it all.  I suppose some of the water might diffuse into the general water table which would otherwise go downstream into the river if contained within the channel.  But, that's speculation, and I don't know how much difference that makes IMLTAO (in my less than amateur opinion).

One thing the levy system does do, I think is slow the whole river system down from evacuating the flood water more quickly.  Levies were blown to alleviate flood water upstream (which says to me that the levies are slowing down the water's receding).  Yet, blowing those levies apparently made no appreciable difference downstream, though it did speed up the flood water's receding upstream.

The only exception to that is the situation with the Morganza Spillway and the Mississippi and Atchalafaya Rivers, which is a whole different ballgame...
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 19, 2011, 04:05:48 PM
BTW- the record MS floods of 1937 occurred in January...not spring when the typical snowmelt occurs. It was all due to repeated heavy rains in both the OH/MS/TN River Valleys from fall into winter. The big difference now is that levees in the Lower MS Valley have been reinforced, and may of its tributaties "cut" per se to allow for a narrower but much faster flowing river system. The levees have performed exceptionally well this go around as designed. Had this protection not been there, you can bet that loss of life would be high.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 19, 2011, 09:55:30 PM
I am happy to report Roadhouse reopened today!  During the reopening festivities, we donated $50,000 to the Red Cross for flood victims in the Mid-South.
Horseshoe should be opened around lunch time tomorrow.  Everyone one come on down!
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Curt on May 20, 2011, 08:58:28 AM
I am happy to report Roadhouse reopened today!  During the reopening festivities, we donated $50,000 to the Red Cross for flood victims in the Mid-South.
Horseshoe should be opened around lunch time tomorrow.  Everyone one come on down!

Avatar = me laugh hard
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: StormNine on May 20, 2011, 09:37:39 AM
 The MS. River flood this year was likely caused by Heavy Rains that fell particularity from Eastern Arkansas into Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.  Along with the record snowfall melt which helped keep the rivers higher.  I will say mostly the rainfall, but the snow-melt probably had something to do with it as well.  The past major lower MS. River floods have also been big time Ohio River floods(1927,1937,1997,2011) which is a tributary of the Mississippi.  So when all that heavy rain runs into the Ohio it needs somewhere to go.  That somewhere to go is the mighty Mississippi and all rivers want to follow gravity downward.  Downward is the Gulf of Mexico.  Even though areas in Louisiana and Southern Mississippi have drought issues.  The big time flood crest and force of gravity are too much to handle to prevent record flooding down that way as well. 
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: ChrisPC on May 20, 2011, 09:59:51 AM
I am happy to report Roadhouse reopened today!  During the reopening festivities, we donated $50,000 to the Red Cross for flood victims in the Mid-South.
Horseshoe should be opened around lunch time tomorrow.  Everyone one come on down!

Can you get me a deal on a room?  ;D
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 21, 2011, 08:33:45 PM
Avatar = me laugh hard

Yep, we are getting to that time of year where that ridge will be mentioned in every other AFD week after week!
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: PigsEye on May 22, 2011, 12:32:06 AM
More flooding photos.  I apologize in advance if these have already been posted.  I spent the last week in FL with the Mouse and am trying to catch up.

http://deltacouncil.weebly.com/flood-image-database.html (http://deltacouncil.weebly.com/flood-image-database.html)
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on May 22, 2011, 06:47:06 PM
Harrah's is still on track to be open by this Friday.  Thank goodness for that too.  I know no one cares, but this has been a hellacious month for me work wise.  Lots and lots of 12-14 hour days!  I am ready for everything to be back to normal.

Now that Horseshoe is open, I can explain what happened there to delay the opening:  Basically the sewer backed up into the barge and into Bluesville due to the river being higher than the sewer level.  Nasty stuff but we have an army of workers attacking it and we are pretty much recovered and cleaned up.   The damage in Bluesville was pretty extensive but it will be fixed and back to normal in a couple weeks.  I have a picture of me in my hazmat gear I will have to post on here this week.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 26, 2011, 02:28:37 PM
A slight river increase in the coming days up north. Shouldnt affect Memphis, I dont think. We are steadily trucking down, so we're good to go.. but this is based on the rainfall in MO/OH.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmrfc-mississippiandohioriverforecast (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmrfc-mississippiandohioriverforecast)
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: PigsEye on June 01, 2011, 01:23:17 PM
Arkansas Business article on flooding and comparison to 27/37.
http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article.aspx?aID=127050.54928.139194
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: bugalou on June 19, 2011, 11:59:37 PM
Not sure if this belongs in a new thread but the worst of all the river flooding seems to be just beginning to those to our north:

Here is a video of water over topping a levee that was shot a couple days ago on the Missouri River.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvE0o3DaXOE&feature=player_embedded

Several Levee failures/overtops have occurred over the past few days on various tributaries of the MS river to our north.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on June 24, 2011, 09:29:58 PM
Breaking News...

WREG and WMC are reporting the Chisholm Lake Store in Lauderdale County suffered a partial collapse a short time ago after a large portion of the floor fell in. Tonight was the grand re-opening of the store following the floods. They are reporting there are injuries including people who were flown to the Med in Memphis. Have to assume the floor collapse is probably due to stress on the structure after the water damage it received in the flood given the timing. Hope the injuries will end up being few and/or minor.

UPDATE...WMC is reporting 3 people injured. 2 were flown to the Med...one transported to another Hospital by ambulance. No word on conditions...
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: Memphis Weather on November 18, 2011, 03:58:09 PM
MAJOR BUMP!

Only bumping this to report some good news...not directly affecting TN but for this area. Its a total non-surprise (in fact I think somewhere in here we speculated about this happening) but the Tunica Riverpark gauge is becoming an official forecast point along the MS River next month with their own separate warnings/statements.

Flood stage will be 41 feet, with moderate flooding at 46 and major at 52. The record crest, set this year of course, was 58.45 feet.

More info...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/meg/Tunica_RiverPt.pdf

BTW...some info about this year's event that was not reported but subtly added to AHPS recently...the official crest of the Memphis gauge was determined to be 48.03 feet, a few inches above the gauge readings (remember there were tons of problems with malfunctioning during the crest time), and pretty much dead-on with the forecast crest of 48.0.
Title: Re: Major River Flooding April-May'11
Post by: harlequin on November 18, 2011, 04:36:17 PM
I saw that on MEG's homepage! That's pretty cool...

People who lived behind the levee in Tunica County definitely aren't returning very quickly. Probably a smart decision on their part, but it's still sad to see Tunica Cutoff not being the fun redneck bar hangout it used to be. :(