Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => TNWx Vault of Fame and Infamy => Topic started by: SKEW-TIM on April 20, 2011, 10:38:57 AM

Title: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 20, 2011, 10:38:57 AM
Okay, I'm not sure if this even merits it yet but I'm gonna go ahead and start a thread for Thursday April 20th. NWS OHX has issued 50% chance of T-Storms- Based off of my limited knowledge. Here are my thoughts, please feel free to comment.

I see no significant CAPE or LI, Dewpoints look okay and Temps and I think if I am reading it right from twisterdata, I see a weaker cap at mid levels.  

So, Here it goes, Let see if I win or fail on this one.... I see us getting some T-storms but because we have no CAPE or LI, these will not be supercells? So any convection we get won't produce copious amounts of storms with more instabilty......      ??? Nashville has little chance of severe, better chance to the south?      
Title: Re: Thursday April 21st
Post by: toastido on April 20, 2011, 10:46:04 AM
Day 2 outlook (for tomorrow (21st)):

(http://i52.tinypic.com/s66gw2.png)

Quote
  DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
   TO OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
   NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
   OCCURS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH UPPER 50S F TO MIDDLE
   60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF
   A MODESTLY SHARPENING SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE.
   
   HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR WHAT COULD BE A MULTI-ROUND OF
   SEVERE HAIL /LIKELY THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR THE PERIOD/...WITH THE
   GREATEST CERTAINTY/COVERAGE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   INITIALLY...ELEVATED TSTMS...SOME CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...ARE
   LIKELY TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
   ADJACENT ARKLATEX/OZARKS. A PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY
   MAINTAIN SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED
   BASIS...DURING THE DAY TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWARD RETURNING
   SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE/ATTENDANT MOIST SECTOR.
   
   FARTHER SOUTHWEST...ACROSS WESTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN TX...A
   RELATIVELY STRONG CAP COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED MODEST LARGE SCALE
   FORCING COINCIDENT WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE PROVIDES
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF ANY SURFACE BASED
   TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
   VARIABILITY ALSO STILL EXISTS AT THIS JUNCTURE REGARDING THE DRYLINE
   POSITION AND THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE NORTHWARD RETURNING MOIST
   SECTOR. BUT PROVIDED ISOLATED SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
   POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS GRAZE THE REGION AND A
   50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET NOCTURNALLY DEVELOPS...THE MOST LIKELY/HIGHEST
   CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IS FOR TSTMS TO INCREASE AFTER DARK WITHIN A
   CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
   LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. GIVEN MODERATE ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH AMPLE SHEAR
   THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ...INTERIOR GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...
   TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY ALONG THE STALLING
   WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY...THE
   DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PULSE-TYPE
   WIND/HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE...AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAIN
   DESTABILIZATION...COMBINED WITH NEBULOUS LARGE SCALE
   FORCING/WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...PRECLUDES SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...CENTRAL ROCKIES TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   TIED TO THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH TSTMS INCREASING
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
   OF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM UT INTO NORTHERN
   CO/SOUTHERN WY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT MODEST
   PW/POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT REMOTE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/20/2011
Title: Re: April 21/22nd
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 20, 2011, 10:55:15 AM
geez
Title: Re: April 21/22nd
Post by: Eric on April 20, 2011, 11:30:22 AM
I guess I'll say it....does this "threat" even warrant a thread?   ::bagoverhead::

Anywho, here's my take.  I've seen piles of doggie doo that have more potential for us than this system.  One, there's a ENE surface wind component.  Two, dew points are in the 40Fs.  Three, there's a 1020+mb HP sitting over the Great Lakes.  Four, lifted indices are WAY positive.  Five, there's hardly any energy coming through the 500mb level.  Six, there's almost a ridge-like amplitude at the H5 level.  Seven, the upper level jet structure is way north of here, so we get no upper level help.  Eight, it looks like we're going to be socked in with a cloud deck given the saturation levels at H7.

The only thing this "event" has going for it is little to no convective inhibition, but without all the other party goers, it means very little.

 ::twocents::
Title: Re: April 21/22nd
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 20, 2011, 11:33:43 AM
I guess I'll say it....does this "threat" even warrant a thread?   ::bagoverhead::

Anywho, here's my take.  I've seen piles of doggie doo that have more potential for us than this system.  One, there's a ENE surface wind component.  Two, dew points are in the 40Fs.  Three, there's a 1020+mb HP sitting over the Great Lakes.  Four, lifted indices are WAY positive.  Five, there's hardly any energy coming through the 500mb level.  Six, there's almost a ridge-like amplitude at the H5 level.  Seven, the upper level jet structure is way north of here, so we get no upper level help.  Eight, it looks like we're going to be socked in with a cloud deck given the saturation levels at H7.

The only thing this "event" has going for it is little to no convective inhibition, but without all the other party goers, it means very little.

 ::twocents::

glad I'm not the only one seeing this as a bust- 
Title: Re: April 21/22nd
Post by: Eric on April 20, 2011, 11:34:53 AM
glad I'm not the only one seeing this as a bust- 

It's not really a bust when there's little to no potential for anything.  It's a non-event....not a bust.
Title: Re: April 21/22nd
Post by: Curt on April 20, 2011, 11:36:07 AM
Its a ways off, but next Monday and Tuesdays threat probably deserves a thread more so than tomorrow and Sat.
Title: Re: April 21/22nd
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 20, 2011, 11:46:30 AM
Its a ways off, but next Monday and Tuesdays threat probably deserves a thread more so than tomorrow and Sat.

I agree...and because of that...I think we can transition this thread to include both possibilities just in case something still pops up later this week.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 20, 2011, 11:51:58 AM
Thanks!
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Crockett on April 20, 2011, 01:48:31 PM
Never missing an opportunity to hype, Accuweather.com is predicting 300 more tornadoes for the South over the next two weeks.

Henry Margusity made the prediction in a blog post, then Accuweather formulated a news release that was emailed to reporters predicting the same. Of course, without the major outbreak over the weekend, such predictions are never made. But since Accuweather realizes that everyone is tuned in to what's happening weather-wise right now...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Eric on April 20, 2011, 02:47:56 PM
Looking at some of the data for next Tuesday, if I'm reading it right (which is ALWAYS up for debate), it could be potentially a red latter day for folks in and around the ArkLaTex.  We're still several model runs away from getting a clear picture, but the signs are there......  ::wow::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 04:55:14 AM
latest model data is indicating a big time severe event along with some flooding issues as well. this one will need to be  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: harlequin on April 21, 2011, 06:28:22 AM
Wow, the midnight run of the GFS had 8.3 inches of rain in Memphis in the next 180 hours (most near the latter end of the run). Probably won't happen, but wow...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Crockett on April 21, 2011, 06:52:32 AM
I wish whoever is praying for these storms and rain would stop so I can get a garden in the ground.  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: DocB on April 21, 2011, 07:34:19 AM
I wish whoever is praying for these storms and rain would stop so I can get a garden in the ground.  ::bangingheadintowall::
I'll second that! I just want a weekend where I don't have to mow ::mowing::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Charles L. on April 21, 2011, 07:36:06 AM
Appears Friday evening we could be looking at another round of severe weather...especially north of I-40.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: justinmundie on April 21, 2011, 08:54:34 AM
I wish whoever is praying for these storms and rain would stop so I can get a garden in the ground.  ::bangingheadintowall::

Clearly whoever is praying for rain, is loved by God more than you. ;)

Or maybe God isn't a vending machine, and prayer doesn't work that way.

Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: spanarkle on April 21, 2011, 08:58:20 AM
They say the front is gonna move back north sometime today. Do you guys think we will be able to play baseball this afternoon in West Tn. ?  Thanks
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Crockett on April 21, 2011, 09:12:58 AM
Clearly whoever is praying for rain, is loved by God more than you. ;)

Sorry, I'm not praying for sunshine.

Quote
Or maybe God isn't a vending machine, and prayer doesn't work that way.



Or maybe you're just too uptight to get a joke.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Eric on April 21, 2011, 10:02:58 AM
Looking at some of the data for next Tuesday, if I'm reading it right (which is ALWAYS up for debate), it could be potentially a red letter day for folks in and around the ArkLaTex.  We're still several model runs away from getting a clear picture, but the signs are there......  ::wow::

 ::whistling::

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif)

Quote
FOR DAY 5/MONDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED A SEVERE RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS. WHILE TIMING/SPATIAL
   DETAILS VARY TO A DEGREE...REASONABLE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT A
   SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST AIRMASS TO
   THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. AS SUCH...SEVERE STORMS SEEM
   LIKELY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION.

 :D :D :D :D
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: toastido on April 21, 2011, 10:23:59 AM
Clearly whoever is praying for rain, is loved by God more than you. ;)

Sorry, I'm not praying for sunshine.

Quote
Or maybe God isn't a vending machine, and prayer doesn't work that way.



Or maybe you're just too uptight to get a joke.

BAZINGA!
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Charles L. on April 21, 2011, 11:15:24 AM
::whistling::

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif)

 :D :D :D :D


Verified! ;D ;)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Eric on April 21, 2011, 11:16:33 AM
Verified! ;D ;)

LOL!  This weather stuff isn't so hard.   ::rofl::



 ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 21, 2011, 11:56:51 AM
I'm quite concerned for the MEG area for either/both Monday and Tuesday Night...something big in one form or another could be in the offing. We shall see...a long way out still.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 21, 2011, 12:06:33 PM
I'm quite concerned for the MEG area for either/both Monday and Tuesday Night...something big in one form or another could be in the offing. We shall see...a long way out still.

Wait... do what?  Is this Kevin speaking??

Just messing with you. ;)

I'm sure a lot of folks should sit up and pay attention when Kevin is concerned. ::wow::

A system to keep an eye on for sure, from the sound of it...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 21, 2011, 12:15:38 PM
Wait... do what?  Is this Kevin speaking??

Just messing with you. ;)

I'm sure a lot of folks should sit up and pay attention when Kevin is concerned. ::wow::

A system to keep an eye on for sure, from the sound of it...

My account has not been hijacked...I can confirm  :D

As usual...all the caveats that we've been seeing this year still apply...and I'm not attaching any specifics at this point...but there's enough to be concerned for some high-end weather event revolving around severe weather or/both flooding.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 21, 2011, 01:13:26 PM
I'm quite concerned for the MEG area for either/both Monday and Tuesday Night...something big in one form or another could be in the offing. We shall see...a long way out still.

 ::faint::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 21, 2011, 02:17:24 PM
Tuesday Morning?
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 21, 2011, 02:18:19 PM
. What about timing issues? If the spc d5 box stays put wouldn't it push through here in the next morning?

There are certainly timing issues that could crop up...and obviously what we see now may not stay that way 5-6 days from now...but based on what I've seen Today both threats Monday and Tuesday Night happen in the 0z to 6z time frame for this region.

SPC's Day 5 region should be expanded further North/East than it is...IMO...and there should be one directly over the MEG area on Day 6. Hopefully we'll see that tomorrow should models stay consistent.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 21, 2011, 02:25:25 PM
. What about timing issues? If the spc d5 box stays put wouldn't it push through here in the next morning?

I suspect there's enough uncertainly in timing at this range where a frontal passage could occur anywhere between peak heating and the wee hours of the morning at this point.  It's probably a little bit early to nail down timing.  The SPC text says Monday/Monday night severe threat for the Arklatex region.  Depending on the movement of the system, that might mean during the day on Tuesday.

Or, we might find out that models are either too slow or too fast with this system as we get closer.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 21, 2011, 02:35:32 PM
I suspect there's enough uncertainly in timing at this range where a frontal passage could occur anywhere between peak heating and the wee hours of the morning at this point.  It's probably a little bit early to nail down timing.  The SPC text says Monday/Monday night severe threat for the Arklatex region.  Depending on the movement of the system, that might mean during the day on Tuesday.

Or, we might find out that models are either too slow or too fast with this system as we get closer.

If it pushes through Memphis in morning, It will be pushing through nashville in the afternoon-  ::lookaround:: Not good
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 21, 2011, 02:44:31 PM
If it pushes through Memphis in morning, It will be pushing through nashville in the afternoon-  ::lookaround:: Not good

Of course it could change...but right now to me (as indicated) this looks like an evening threat for the Memphis/MEG area...and more overnight/morning for Nashville...for both days...but again obviously this could change.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 21, 2011, 02:44:58 PM
If it pushes through Memphis in morning, It will be pushing through nashville in the afternoon-  ::lookaround:: Not good

The point is... we don't know the time of passage for either Memphis or Nashville at this point.  We probably need to get a couple of days closer before we have a better idea.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 21, 2011, 02:46:39 PM
The point is... we don't know the time of passage for either Memphis or Nashville at this point.  We probably need to get a couple of days closer before we have a better idea.

Yeah that is true, Does anyone have any ideas yet on what may be driving this one? Is there anything like an outflow boundary to trigger it. Or is just too early to say yet....... 
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 21, 2011, 02:51:13 PM
Yeah that is true, Does anyone have any ideas yet on what may be driving this one? Is there anything like an outflow boundary to trigger it. Or is just too early to say yet....... 

Outflow boundaries are a mesoscale process that we won't have any handle on their presence and impacts until literally hours before we see things unfold. We can't pick them out on model data. Right now this is a classically driven low pressure system with a broad based upper trough and associated dynamics.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 21, 2011, 02:53:46 PM
Thanks guys, i should have read the write up. In a rush this morning .

No worries. Fact is we shouldn't be too concerned with timing yet...that's to be pinned down later...and this could be one of those events where timing may not have a significant impact on severe chances anyway (could impact things like storm mode and such...but just way too soon to say for sure).
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Shanti on April 21, 2011, 02:55:31 PM
Yup! France is definitely looking better and better..  ;)...Guess Its time to buy that generator I've been wanting for some time now..The last thing we need is another flooding event..oh no just remembered I'm suppose to be driving towards Memphis on Tuesday night..that might change now..time will tell.. ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 21, 2011, 03:22:21 PM
Can you guys do me a favor and make this a daytime event over here?   Thanks.   ;)
 
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Milodog2 on April 21, 2011, 03:55:40 PM
Henry Margusity over on accuweather is acting like next week could be a super outbreak. Says between monday and thursday could be up to 200 tornados. Is this what you guys a seeing also?
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Curt on April 21, 2011, 03:57:41 PM
AFD Memphis

Quote
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER...ALMOST IDENTICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WILL GIVE THE MIDSOUTH A GOOD SHOT AT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ONE OR BOTH BEING SIGNIFICANT
OUTBREAKS - PARTICULARLY AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS EACH NIGHT AND
LENGTHENS THE HODOGRAPHS. PROLONGED FETCH OF MOISTURE LADEN AIR
SHOULD BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. STORM
MODE AND TIMING ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE DYNAMICS AND
SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO HIGHER END EVENTS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Curt on April 21, 2011, 04:01:43 PM
Henry Margusity over on accuweather is acting like next week could be a super outbreak. Says between monday and thursday could be up to 200 tornados. Is this what you guys a seeing also?

You know to provide a doomsday scenario at this juncture is irresponsible. If we see the same parameters Sunday night, it would certainly be more prudent to heed some caution. But even then to predict 200 tornadoes is well....ridiculous...esp at this point.

Bottom line, severe looks likely Mon/Tues, and there is potential for a higher end event as well.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 21, 2011, 04:03:14 PM
Henry Margusity over on accuweather is acting like next week could be a super outbreak.

Not to diminish the potential threat of this storm system, but I wouldn't put much stock in Accuweather hyping an event.  They call for storms rivaling Superstorm '93 and Superoutbreak '74 multiple times every year, it seems like.  ;)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 04:57:19 PM
tell you after just getting off work a min ago. glancing at models ... o super outbreak is very possible. whats kind of eary is, the through is close being the same setup in the april 74 event. the jst may not be quite as strong. but bottom line there is reason of being very concerned
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: StormNine on April 21, 2011, 05:06:34 PM
With all the heavy rains falling along the Ohio River, and across the northern-mid portions of the MS river valley.  I would a little on down the line be very concerned with river flooding for both the OH River, MS River, and some of their tributaries. 
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 21, 2011, 05:16:42 PM
Just as with potential winter storms or any other system more than 72 hours out, it isn't wise to compare a storm to the historical "unlikely to be surpassed" events in a lifetime.

The best we can say is that there is, right now, a significant potential for severe weather in our part of the world next week.  Let's just relax right now and watch it unfold.  What the models show now is not likely to be exactly what the models show 24, 48, or 72 hours from now.

Someone is inevitably going to pop up and cry Armagedden.  ;) But, that just isn't necessary at this point.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: harlequin on April 21, 2011, 05:21:31 PM
With all the heavy rains falling along the Ohio River, and across the northern-mid portions of the MS river valley.  I would a little on down the line be very concerned with river flooding for both the OH River, MS River, and some of their tributaries. 

Indeed. The MS River will likely go above flood stage for the second time as far south as Memphis. It will already be within 1 foot of flood stage at Memphis as a result of rain that has already fallen.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 21, 2011, 05:25:55 PM
Needless to say, people in this area (including yours truly) are going to tend to be edgy at the thought of a heavy rain event and flooding.

But, like SO '74 and SS '93, the May Flood of '10 is not likely to be contested in not only our lifetime but a number of lifetimes.

It does sound like we need to pay attention to potential flooding risks though.


Hard to believe it will be 1 year in a couple of weeks.....
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: StormNine on April 21, 2011, 05:40:49 PM
I can't believe it is almost a year.  I will always remember going on here, and watching 4 and 5 the coverage.  I will always remember the severe weather and flooding occurring pretty much side by side.  With this round I am more concerned about the rain, and especially the rain that will fall north of the Ohio River moving into the major rivers.  I don't think Flash Flooding will as bad as some of our historical major events(May 2010,and that event in August on the Plateau hopefully not anywhere near those events), but more of River Flooding of the major rivers. 
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Eric on April 21, 2011, 07:22:44 PM
Holy crap!  Why must every single storm that appears on numerical data be referred to as the next SO '74, or SS '93, or the May Floods, or ST '08?  Even if the setups are "similar", there's no freakin' guarantee the results will be.  Sheesh..... ::bangingheadintowall::

*rant off*
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 07:30:23 PM
Holy crap!  Why must every single storm that appears on numerical data be referred to as the next SO '74, or SS '93, or the May Floods, or ST '08?  Even if the setups are "similar", there's no freakin' guarantee the results will be.  Sheesh..... ::bangingheadintowall::

*rant off*
dont think anyone is saying it will be like that eric. there is just comparisons on placements of the players that MAY take the field early next week. in reality there is never two storms alike.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 21, 2011, 08:18:10 PM
I'm quite concerned for the MEG area for either/both Monday and Tuesday Night...something big in one form or another could be in the offing. We shall see...a long way out still.
(http://www.gifsoup.com/view1/1221779/fred-heartattack-o.gif)



 :D

Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Milodog2 on April 21, 2011, 08:44:14 PM
Holy crap!  Why must every single storm that appears on numerical data be referred to as the next SO '74, or SS '93, or the May Floods, or ST '08?  Even if the setups are "similar", there's no freakin' guarantee the results will be.  Sheesh..... ::bangingheadintowall::

*rant off*

Hope you under stand I was just quoting, not predicting
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 08:58:14 PM
I can't believe it is almost a year.  I will always remember going on here, and watching 4 and 5 the coverage.  I will always remember the severe weather and flooding occurring pretty much side by side.  With this round I am more concerned about the rain, and especially the rain that will fall north of the Ohio River moving into the major rivers.  I don't think Flash Flooding will as bad as some of our historical major events(May 2010,and that event in August on the Plateau hopefully not anywhere near those events), but more of River Flooding of the major rivers. 
seriously , i would be more concerned about the severe setup here. course were days out. but it screams tornadoes...models are hinting most of the heavy rain may be off to the west. still could be some flooding issues, especially along rivers.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Charles L. on April 21, 2011, 09:03:32 PM
Hope you under stand I was just quoting, not predicting

Not intended for you Milodog...;)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Crockett on April 21, 2011, 09:10:47 PM
Hope you under stand I was just quoting, not predicting

I don't want to speak for Eric, but I'm guessing he was referring to the post by TS09, who said that a super outbreak could be possible next week and that the setup is the same as 4/3/74.

I haven't read Henry Margusity's blog the past couple of days, but earlier this week he was saying there could be 200 tornadoes over the next two weeks. Has he decided to get more specific with his predictions and say they'll all happen in one fell swoop next week? Either way, I'm skeptical. Not that it can't happen; just that Margusity loves to hype. I think most people are skeptical of his predictions, just as they're skeptical of Joe Bastardi's winter storm predictions.

Everyone is obviously free to their own interpretation of pending storm systems. The problem is that when you constantly go around throwing out buzz words like "tornado outbreak" and "super outbreak," people start to regard you as another Chicken Boy-Who-Cried-Wolf Little.

That can apply to Margusity and weather forum weenies alike.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 21, 2011, 09:14:07 PM
Has he decided to get more specific with his predictions and say they'll all happen in one fell swoop next week?



Not really, he just made a map of a possible MAJOR OUTBREAK  :D

(http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2011/590x392_04211714_severe1.png)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Adam on April 21, 2011, 09:16:13 PM
Wow he Is screaming Major Outbreak for Louisiana to Pennsilvannia. I'd say he is going to bust bad. He reminds me of Bistardi with Winter Weather. ::shrug::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 09:17:44 PM
dont get me wrong, i know ole henry can hype with the best mets out there. but looking at most models... they do scream some very concern. were still few days out, so i will be ::coffee::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Charles L. on April 21, 2011, 09:18:00 PM
Wow he Is screaming Major Outbreak for Louisiana to Pennsilvannia. I'd say he is going to bust bad. He reminds me of Bistardi with Winter Weather. ::shrug::

They are all about ratings. Whatever will get people over to their site...they will use.

Do they know this is a good map? No, but if it gets peoples attention and causes them to come back to AccuWeather the next day to see further updates...it is a win for them.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Adam on April 21, 2011, 09:18:51 PM
They are all about ratings. Whatever will get people over to their site...they will use.

Do they know this is a good map? No, but if it gets peoples attention and causes them to come back to AccuWeather the next day to see any updates...it is a win for them.
Unfortunately yes this is all correct. TWC is about the same way.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 09:19:07 PM
Wow he Is screaming Major Outbreak for Louisiana to Pennsilvannia. I'd say he is going to bust bad. He reminds me of Bistardi with Winter Weather. ::shrug::
people down joe alot, but bastardi, give him credit. he is one of the better long range gurus around.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Adam on April 21, 2011, 09:21:46 PM
Wow he Is screaming Major Outbreak for Louisiana to Pennsilvannia. I'd say he is going to bust bad. He reminds me of Bistardi with Winter Weather. ::shrug::
[/quotepeople down joe alot, but bastardi, give him credit. he is one of the better long range gurus around.
 
All I know is that he was wrong alot this year. As for severe weather I have learned that it is alot like Winter weather. If you don't have on key variable working for you then you probably will not have severe weather. The models might not even pick up on it either. It all depends on the dynamics.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 21, 2011, 09:22:47 PM
Its kind of funny that when I say I am "quite concerned" that I still come off as one of the most conservative ones on here. As already suggested by several...some people just need to take a breather and let the models start sorting these things out over the next few days. This is far from a lock in most aspects...concern doesn't always translate to reality...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 09:23:02 PM
meg seems to be biting early on this system, also. course that has been mentioned by curt earlier. going to be fun keeping up with these 2 big systems next week.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Timothy on April 21, 2011, 09:31:20 PM
cyclonicjunkie, where did you get that map from at accuweather, can't seem to find it anywhere?
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 21, 2011, 09:34:24 PM
cyclonicjunkie, where did you get that map from at accuweather, can't seem to find it anywhere?

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/48697/an-insane-outbreak-of-severe-weather-next-week.asp
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Timothy on April 21, 2011, 09:40:52 PM
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/48697/an-insane-outbreak-of-severe-weather-next-week.asp

wonder how much this will pan out, or if he will look like a big joke for making that map
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 21, 2011, 09:47:13 PM
wonder how much this will pan out, or if he will look like a big joke for making that map


The way I read his blog it sounds like he is saying 100-200 seperate tornados during this 25th-28th event. I cannot for the life of me see that verifying. Maybe hes talking TOR reports and not actual Tornados  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Matthew on April 21, 2011, 10:03:00 PM
Not really, he just made a map of a possible MAJOR OUTBREAK  :D

(http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2011/590x392_04211714_severe1.png)

Quite a colorful map there.  Plenty of time to watch the models.  Kevin even saying the word concern is an eye opener.  We all know that usually a big storm (did not say outbreak) the models will lock the players on the field kinda early.  Seems this is that time frame.  The way the weather has been this year.  I would not rule out anything.  All the states have had their days (north/south/west/east) of us. Just maybe our turn is up.  Will be interesting to see how this unfolds and to hear what Kevin, Eric, & Fred have to say in the next couple of days.  IF (BIG IF) a big storm is coming.  I hope it is daytime and not nighttime.  Tired of staying up and my kids waking up!!
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Milodog2 on April 21, 2011, 10:34:15 PM
Its kind of funny that when I say I am "quite concerned" that I still come off as one of the most conservative ones on here. As already suggested by several...some people just need to take a breather and let the models start sorting these things out over the next few days. This is far from a lock in most aspects...concern doesn't always translate to reality...

You are conservative, border line Debbie downer but I will say you and a few others is the reason I patrol this board. I feel as if I can get a better handle on up coming events because of the info on this board, then what locales give us on TV (and I am friends with a local TV met). When I try to get the word out to friends of possable sever weather, they either don't care or don't understand. People need to realise while severe weather does not happen in East Tenn that much, their life could change in 30 sec or less. Keep up the good work MW and others.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Matthew on April 21, 2011, 10:39:17 PM
After reading Memphis evening weather discussion.  I must say it is quite  ::wow::.  It seems most of the weather outlets believe that west and middle TN will have multiple rounds of severe weather.  Most seem to believe this is a high end impact event.  COULD be some long days and nights coming up.  If by Sunday the players are on the field still.  We ALL should make sure to let people know to pay attention to the weather.  As we all know already this year.  TOO MANY lives have been lost!
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Milodog2 on April 21, 2011, 10:41:42 PM
Agree Matt
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 21, 2011, 10:59:50 PM
You are conservative, border line Debbie downer but I will say you and a few others is the reason I patrol this board. I feel as if I can get a better handle on up coming events because of the info on this board, then what locales give us on TV (and I am friends with a local TV met). When I try to get the word out to friends of possable sever weather, they either don't care or don't understand. People need to realise while severe weather does not happen in East Tenn that much, their life could change in 30 sec or less. Keep up the good work MW and others.

Thanks :) I try to play it as accurate as possible...as you folks know. I don't concern easily...especially this early...but I do have legitimate concerns on this one. I as well as all the others here will surely be updating over the weekend as possible...and we'll just see if this trends less intense as we get closer.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Milodog2 on April 21, 2011, 11:10:35 PM
Thanks, keep us updated. This goes for everyone not just Kevin.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Matthew on April 21, 2011, 11:12:05 PM
Thanks :) I try to play it as accurate as possible...as you folks know. I don't concern easily...especially this early...but I do have legitimate concerns on this one. I as well as all the others here will surely be updating over the weekend as possible...and we'll just see if this trends less intense as we get closer.
That is what makes this site awesome.  You are realistic!  So am I.  Sometimes folks like us may seem negative are down but we are not!  We just face the truth and tell the facts!  Something our govt needs to do!!!  Stop spending!  Enough of short rant!  Not back to our regular schedule programming!  Will be very interesting how SPS makes there maps in the next few days?  
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 11:13:12 PM
Thanks, keep us updated. This goes for everyone not just Kevin.
next week has gotten my attention as everyone knows by now. i will do my best to help too ::coffee::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 11:15:47 PM
That is what makes this site awesome.  You are realistic!  So am I.  Sometimes folks like us may seem negative are down but we are not!  We just face the truth and tell the facts!  Something our govt needs to do!!!  Stop spending!  Enough of short rant!  Not back to our regular schedule programming!  Will be very interesting how SPS makes there maps in the next few days?  

i will say they will have us in a circle on day 5. thats counting tomorrow as day one. that will be updated in the wee morning hours.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 11:20:04 PM
wouldnt be suprised to see us in a over lapping circle to cover west tn. and e arkie both monday and tuesday time frames.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Milodog2 on April 21, 2011, 11:25:25 PM
next week has gotten my attention as everyone knows by now. i will do my best to help too ::coffee::

Thanks, I lean on you guys cause my weather knowledge is elementary.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 11:31:30 PM
Thanks, I lean on you guys cause my weather knowledge is elementary.
you are so welcome. well taking a glance at the 0zgfs, it seems to hold serve... looking like the second trough is going to be the strongest to me. late tuesday into early wed. time frame. first one isnt  nothing to sneez at by anymeans just yet.  course i like to hear kevin, eric, and fred oppinion on this also. along with toast. they are excellent at severe weather. well its off to the oz euro ::coffee::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 11:43:21 PM
you are so welcome. well taking a glance at the 0zgfs, it seems to hold serve... looking like the second trough is going to be the strongest to me. late tuesday into early wed. time frame. first one isnt  nothing to sneez at by anymeans just yet.  course i like to hear kevin, eric, and fred oppinion on this also. along with toast. they are excellent at severe weather. well its off to the oz euro ::coffee::
cant forget my friend charles also. who is going to make a very good met soon. there are some good weather knowledgeble friends on this forum
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Milodog2 on April 21, 2011, 11:49:21 PM
I would never want personal injury or property damage but what I would give to see one tornado or just a rotating wall cloud would make my day.
Going to bed, will check in tomorrow. (got a tee time at 1:07, ready for a day off work).
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2011, 11:59:29 PM
Thanks, keep us updated. This goes for everyone not just Kevin.
i would love to get a close up shot of a legit ef5 wedge... running on the ground in nothing but a open field... just miles n miles of open field. no injury or harm. thats why i plan on going to the plains soon. ::guitar:: well nite folks
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 22, 2011, 12:26:30 AM
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/48697/an-insane-outbreak-of-severe-weather-next-week.asp

OMG!!!! ::rofl::

Quote
An Insane Outbreak of Severe Weather Next Week

Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: harlequin on April 22, 2011, 12:33:38 AM
OMG!!!! ::rofl::



Reading the comments under the post make me cringe more than the actual post...

My least favorite thing about overhyping events is that even if a significant event materializes it doesn't seem as significant because it wasn't as big as the hype. It works the same way for severe weather outbreaks as it does for winter weather events. If a couple of days out we have model runs or hype for a 12" snow storm and the models change a few days out and we get 3" then people are still disappointed, though 3" is still a big deal technically here.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: vanster67 on April 22, 2011, 06:09:25 AM
lG'Morning everyone!  Looking forward to reading everyones thoughts about the possibilities of this coming weeks severe weather! 
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 22, 2011, 08:32:41 AM
Risk area barely moves from Day 4 to Day 5 (just inches east):

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2011/day48prob_20110422_1200.gif)

Quote
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011
   
   VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 /THU.
   4-28/...WITH RESPECT TO A LARGE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING
   ACROSS THE WRN CONUS.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT/EVOLVE SLOWLY
   EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH DAY 7...AND AS IT
   DOES...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD
   ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   WITH PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ADVECTING
   GULF MOISTURE NWD...AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE -- BEING
   ENHANCED EACH AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING
   CYCLE.  WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE ADVANCING
   SYSTEM...SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED/POTENTIALLY-SEVERE CONVECTION.  AS A RESULT...A
   MULTIPLE-DAY PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN
   THREAT AREA SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME. 
   
   WILL HIGHLIGHT A THREAT AREA FROM E TX NWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO
   ERN OK/WRN AR/SWRN MO FOR DAY 4 /MON. 4-25/...WHERE RELATIVELY
   SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
   AND SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
   
   A SIMILAR THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE DAY 5...AS THE INITIAL SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH EJECTS NNEWD AND A SECOND SHORT-WAVE FEATURE DIGS SEWD
   TOWARD/INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.
   
   ATTM...SPECIFICS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GET MORE DIFFICULT TO
   DISCERN DAY 6 /WED. 4-27/ AND BEYOND...AS THE FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE
   MS VALLEY.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/22/2011


Day 5 risk just barely includes the Memphis area.  But, as it is right now, there's too much uncertainty for the SPC to even include much of the state in a risk.  The world-ending deal from Accuweather is not exactly a sure thing.  ;)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Adam on April 22, 2011, 09:18:32 AM
What in the world is a Hodograph? ::shrug::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 22, 2011, 09:24:20 AM
What in the world is a Hodograph? ::shrug::

It's used to graph hodos.











 ;)

This should help: http://www.stormtrack.org/library/chasing/hodo.htm (http://www.stormtrack.org/library/chasing/hodo.htm)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Adam on April 22, 2011, 09:25:50 AM
Thanks Thundersnow. So it is the measure of vertical winds in the atmosphere.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 22, 2011, 09:27:42 AM
Thanks Thundersnow. So it is the measure of vertical winds in the atmosphere.

Yep... it basically shows how winds are blowing in different directions in different levels of the atmosphere.

Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Adam on April 22, 2011, 09:29:23 AM
Yep... it basically shows how winds are blowing in different directions in different levels of the atmosphere.


Ahh thats neat. So they can tell if they are twisting or just blowing one direction.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 22, 2011, 09:32:45 AM
Ahh thats neat. So they can tell if they are twisting or just blowing one direction.

Essentially, yes.  And, when a storm develops and grows tall enough, it will get caught up in winds blowing in different directions.  The wind around the top of the cloud will be blowing at a different direction compared to the wind at the base of the cloud.

That can cause rotation in the cell...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: toastido on April 22, 2011, 10:04:15 AM
Essentially, yes.  And, when a storm develops and grows tall enough, it will get caught up in winds blowing in different directions.  The wind around the top of the cloud will be blowing at a different direction compared to the wind at the base of the cloud.

That can cause rotation in the cell...

Not to mention, looping hodographs indicate strong turning in the atmosphere, which can aid in supercell longevity, and, if conditions are right along the surface, maintaining a strong rotating updraft to sustain strong/long-track tornadoes.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 22, 2011, 12:26:12 PM
A quick look at 12z data does not change my thoughts/concerns much. Severe weather and/or flooding remains quite possible if not likely in the MEG area as well as other portions of the state sometime between Monday and Wednesday. For my region specifically...I'm currently pinning down areas West of I-55 on Monday Night...North of I-40 on Tuesday Evening...and East of the Mississippi River on Early Wednesday (and spreading East through the day)...but this remains subject to significant change.

Uncertainties exist with exact timing and storm modes...and thus it remains too soon to say whether one or more of these events becomes a significant outbreak. The regions of greatest risk that may end up evolving are still not completely determinable. It could encompass portions/all of TN...or it may remain one or more directions removed from the state.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 22, 2011, 02:13:24 PM
The European...FWIW...is notably slower with the whole Monday-Wednesday progression. Monday would probably stay west of the state all together...Tuesday if anything happened if would be West and very very late that night (Euro seems to have this wave being very insignificant...might not be a big deal anywhere)...and Wednesday would probably be the main show for everybody.

MEG area at all times is impacted overnight or morning hours (before noon)...so that could make it a bit less ominous should it pan out...as we've seen with virtually every system so far this season. We'll see if the European's timing is better...honestly given MEG would yet again miss out on the worst based on timing...probably the way to go... ;)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 22, 2011, 02:26:19 PM
Just hope we don't get into a pattern of training thunderstorms pounding the area for two days.

Been there, done that.  Got pictures.  ;)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Eric on April 22, 2011, 02:28:52 PM
Just hope we don't get into a pattern of training thunderstorms pounding the area for two days.

Been there, done that.  Got pictures.  ;)

At least you didn't get a lousy t-shirt.   :D
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 22, 2011, 02:30:14 PM
Just hope we don't get into a pattern of training thunderstorms pounding the area for two days.

Been there, done that.  Got pictures.  ;)

Hopefully you won't have to take anymore ;)

Afraid though there will be significant flooding somewhere in the MS/OH/TN Valley Regions before all is said and done...perhaps though the worst will stay just NW of us...MO/IL/KY look to take the brunt at this point. And obviously...even if flooding is significant its going to take a whole whole lot to outdo one year ago...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: toastido on April 22, 2011, 02:39:05 PM
At least you didn't get a lousy t-shirt.   :D


I did... ;)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 22, 2011, 02:40:16 PM
yeah keviin after looking at the 12z gfs, it looks very concerning for the meg area just like you said .this just doesnt look like just a line situation to me either. could get some discreted way ahead of the line this time. the euro is much slower. northern arkansas and parts of south central missouri may need a boat
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 22, 2011, 02:42:43 PM
yeah keviin after looking at the 12z gfs, it looks very concerning for the meg area just like you said .this just doesnt look like just a line situation to me either. could get some discreted way ahead of the line this time. the euro is much slower. northern arkansas and parts of south central missouri may need a boat

I'm still undecided on storm mode. There are several factors that could lead to a linear-dominant mode...especially Tuesday and Wednesday. I don't see support for a widespread warm sector producing discrete cells at this point...but supercells will certainly be a factor at some point...if the timing is slower most of that will stay both west and east of the MEG area...however...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 22, 2011, 03:01:33 PM
Just hope we don't get into a pattern of training thunderstorms pounding the area for two days.

Been there, done that.  Got pictures.  ;)

I was always one who never really gave that much thought to flooding. But after all that mess from last May,  I have learned to have a healthy respect for flash flooding. I live in Bellevue which was one of the harder hit areas of Nashville. After spending 2 days stranded while a third of my subdivision was underwater, I was able to get out by boat. There are still alot of signs of the flood that still linger. I too have pictures. It took a month to get back to sleeping comfortably at night. Seeing a strong thunderstorm is one thing but seeing a torential downpour that just sits and dumps rain is a another. I hope I never have to see the sheer damage to lives and property again that a system like that brings.  So from now on when we get a flash flood warning or watch. I will perk up take notice-almost on edge . I hope everyone takes those just serious as they do severe thunderstorm or tornado watches and warnings.     
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 22, 2011, 03:08:44 PM
I live in Bellevue which was one of the harder hit areas of Nashville.

Tell me about it.

Bellevue was where I lived too... until the water was about 6 feet deep inside my house out there...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: harlequin on April 22, 2011, 04:00:54 PM
It definitely looks like the potential 6"+ amounts will likely be over Arkansas, Missouri, and northeastward. This will definitely significant increase the crests on the Mississippi River. This could of course shift, but I'd expect TN to be in the 2-4" inch range rather than anything drastic.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Eric on April 22, 2011, 04:01:31 PM
After years of sitting around here soaking up the copious amounts of weather knowledge, I found myself wanting to finally put it all together...I wanted to try to make sense of all the meteorological data that is out there.  So, behold my initial attempt at an EFD....Eric's Forecast Discussion.

I will preface this by saying THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST....it is only my personal interpretations/opinions of the impending weather system that looks to affect us in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.  This EFD is generally based off the GFS (since the data is readily accessible).

This system looks to be a double-barrell blast to the Mississippi valley.  Initially, beginning late Sunday/early Monday, there are going to be some folks that might very well be underwater.  The HPC has highlighted a bulls-eye of over 9 inches of rain over the mid-Mississippi Valley.  The last time I personally saw THAT much qpf highlighted on a map, was last May.  We all know how that one turned out.  I'm not going to venture into this part of the event, but will focus more on the severe weather threat that looks to follow the first round.

Early Tuesday afternoon, the energy that will feed this system is beginning to filter down into OK, where it pops a sub-1000mb surface low over the TX panhandle.  The surface low looks to strengthen, and in doing so, the wind fields begin to strengthen as well with a 100kt jet max entering the western sections of AR.  The shortwave at H5 takes on a subtle positive tilt as it translates northeastward.  There is a short window here, once the shortwave goes positive, that a threat for discrete activity could present itself across AR, stretching down into the northern sections of LA.  All the components are there: H7 is dry, thermodynamics are nearly perfect, instability levels are perfect, lifted indices are insanely high (-10 to -12 in spots).  The mitigating factors, though, that should limit the extent of this threat are crucial ones.  Looking at the progged skew-T for Little Rock, there is a slight temperature inversion above 850mb.  It doesn't look very deep, but could very well hold until more forcing arrives from the west that will break it.  Two, the lower level wind fields don't look all that impressive to me out ahead of the cold front.  

Here's where things start going bonkers.  As the shortwave migrates northeastward, it goes completely negative and closes itself off over Kansas City, with the upper level jet stream rounding the base directly overtop the mid-Mississippi Valley.  That should provide enough divergence to one, destroy any temperature inversion that was still present, and two, allow for rapid thunderstorm development, given the presence of all the other factors that will be present (CAPE, thermodynamics, Theta-E).

This beast of a system then decides to close itself off at H7.  Honestly, I can't remember seeing a stacked system in the middle of spring before.  She's gonna have so much energy, she won't know what to do with it all.  The system itself looks to slow down a bit....not sure why.  The Euro is about 6-12 hours behind the GFS, and the Canuck is even slower.  I hate to speculate, but the Euro and the Canuck might be seeing this hiccup and it could be screwing up their respective resolutions...I don't know.  FWIW, the UKMET and the DGEX are more in line with the GFS is selling, so that's where I'm placing my money right now.  

Tennessee begins to feel this system's effect early Wednesday morning as an intense QLCS rips through the MidSouth.  With a 100kt+ jet max in support, there could very well be numerous reports of wind damage with this system, in light of the fact that the wind fields pre-frontal passage aren't that impressive (15-20kt).  The QLCS should migrate eastward as the 992mb stacked low heads off to the northeast.  By 7pm Wednesday, the QLCS looks to impact BNA with strengthening upper level support via a 110kt jet max flowing almost due west to east.  There could be numerous reports of wind damage in the BNA area as well.  By midnight, the QLCS has reached the eastern portions of the state having weakened ever so slightly.  

Given the strength/dynamics of this system, I don't think the possibility of discrete activity is all that great except over areas of the ArkLaTex where the thermodynamics/kinematics will be the greatest.  Of course, if the threat for discrete activity DID increase, virtually all the progged skew-Ts from across the ArkLaTex into AR extreme west TN are supportive of a tornadic threat with large, clockwise hodographs.

While the severe threat looks mightily impressive, if the first round of water hangs around any longer than it's progged, it could have dire consequences for the subsequent round, either by delaying the onset OF severe weather or rendering the threat non-existent.  We just won't know that until the day of.

Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Shanti on April 22, 2011, 04:02:26 PM
Tell me about it.

Bellevue was where I lived too... until the water was about 6 feet deep inside my house out there...

I was spared..luckily... living near Chaffins Barn..we had a Class 3 rapid going around our house in the lot next to us...It went right around us!!!..we didn't get flooded only the basement..our house was floating! the rain water was coming in through the concrete floors and the side of house..we used a shop vac continuously to try and keep the level down..until the power went out!!..then It was time to make homemade syphon to aid in that..at least it was coming out as fast as it was coming in...lots of friends were affected by it..we were one of the lucky ones..I hope this won't be a flooding event again.. ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 22, 2011, 04:06:55 PM
Great discussion Eric! Can't disagree with much of what you said...a very plausible solution...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 22, 2011, 04:09:37 PM
It definitely looks like the potential 6"+ amounts will likely be over Arkansas, Missouri, and northeastward. This will definitely significant increase the crests on the Mississippi River. This could of course shift, but I'd expect TN to be in the 2-4" inch range rather than anything drastic.

Yes...the flash flood component will be there...but most likely the river flooding days from now (well after this event) will be more problematic as those very heavy rainfall amounts runoff and then move downstream the OH/MS/TN Rivers and their various tributaries.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 22, 2011, 04:34:02 PM
FYI - just so people are aware...I'm NOT going to be around much to provide updates Tonight and pretty much all day Saturday. If I have some time...I may try to make a few brief posts...but otherwise I'll be mostly out of pocket until Sunday for any big detailed analysis or discussion. Of course...I think you guys will make it just fine. ;) We have many knowledgeable people around who will continue to share their thoughts as they are able to.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: ams30721us on April 22, 2011, 07:40:59 PM
 ::faint::

WOW

From the St Louis NWS

Quote
i can't relay this in strong enough terms...this is the strongest signature I've seen on radar in my 12 years in the weather service


Quote
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN ST. CHARLES...WEST
CENTRAL ST. LOUIS AND SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

...DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY...


AT 729 PM CDT...RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW
MELLE...OR NEAR LAKE ST. LOUIS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. PAUL...DARDENNE PRAIRIE...O'FALLON...COTTLEVILLE...WELDON
SPRING...ST. PETERS...CHESTERFIELD...HARVESTER AND GOLDEN EAGLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW.

Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: ams30721us on April 22, 2011, 07:45:05 PM
Live Stream:

http://www.kmov.com/home/Click-here-for-frequent-live-weather-updates-120462049.html
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: toastido on April 22, 2011, 07:56:30 PM
Bad thing is, that sucker is tracking directly over the radar site..

Radar is useless at this juncture until it passes..

(http://i52.tinypic.com/fuuyjd.png)

Also, AMS, I Deleted the last post I made because I did finally see that quote in chat...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Adam on April 22, 2011, 08:00:02 PM
Why does that happen on the Radar? That might be the best radar signature i have ever seen on radar.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: ams30721us on April 22, 2011, 08:03:20 PM
Two confirmed Tornadoes on the ground now by Spotters with both storms now...St Louis City under Warning now..Cards stadium now evacuated!
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: toastido on April 22, 2011, 08:06:02 PM
Yep.. I'd say that sucker is on the ground..
(http://i56.tinypic.com/219bgr8.png)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Charles L. on April 22, 2011, 08:07:50 PM
KPLR News 11 had to take cover, they are in the Maryland Heights community...very dangerous situation. Hopefully they aren't gone long.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: ams30721us on April 22, 2011, 08:08:51 PM
Quote
Time: 2011-04-23 00:56 UTC
Event: 0 TORNADO
Source: trained spotter
Remark: possible rain wrapped tornado. debris observed in field off of highway 30 near st clair lonedell city limits
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: toastido on April 22, 2011, 08:08:59 PM
OMG...    :o :o :o

This is a BASE scan too, not even Storm Relative..

(http://i56.tinypic.com/67mhkx.png)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: ams30721us on April 22, 2011, 08:13:36 PM
Yep you can see that debris ball very nice. Esp at theat level since its so close to the radar site.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: toastido on April 22, 2011, 08:13:51 PM
Quote
ST. LOUIS,MO (STL) ASOS  reports Tornado KSTL 230111Z 29022G34KT 240V310 3SM +FC -TSRA FEW020 BKN050CB OVC090 22/19 RMK TORNADO B10 W MOV E AO2 PK WND 29034/0111 CONS LTGICCGCC ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV E P0001

Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Adam on April 22, 2011, 08:14:43 PM
Very nice inflow on the first storm. ::wow::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: ams30721us on April 22, 2011, 08:16:07 PM
Yep trained weather observer on duty at the airport is reporting a Tornado on the ground!!
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: ams30721us on April 22, 2011, 08:19:17 PM
Quote
Time: 2011-04-23 01:14 UTC
Event: 0 TORNADO
Source: official nws obs
Remark: observer at stl reports tornado at lambert field moving east
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: ams30721us on April 22, 2011, 08:21:02 PM
Quote
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
816 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

ILC119-163-MOC189-510-230145-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-110423T0145Z/
ST. CLAIR IL-MADISON IL-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
816 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS...
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS CITY...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

...DAMAGING TORNADO MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TOWARDS
THE NORTH PART OF THE CITY...

AT 814 PM CDT...THE TOWER AT LAMBERT AIRPORT REPORTED A TORNADO. 
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FERGUSON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

TAKE SHELTER NOW!
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DELLWOOD...JENNINGS...BLACK JACK...BELLEFONTAINE NEIGHBORS...
  RIVERVIEW...SPANISH LAKE...VENICE...MADISON...GRANITE CITY...
  WASHINGTON PARK...PONTOON BEACH...EDWARDSVILLE...BROOKLYN...
  FAIRMONT CITY...HARTFORD...ROXANA...MITCHELL AND POAG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: ams30721us on April 22, 2011, 08:26:24 PM
Quote
0821 PM TORNADO HAZELWOOD 38.78N 90.36W 04/22/2011 ST. LOUIS MO STORM CHASER CHASERS REPORT DAMAGE AND DEBRIS NEAR EXIT 236 ON I70...TREES DAMAGED...CELL PHONE TOWER BENT OVER...FLAG POLE AT AIRPORT BENT OVER...INTERSTATE SIGNS DOWN AND SMALL DEBRIS ON THE INTERSTATE

Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 22, 2011, 08:29:28 PM
watching this pattern unfold for the last 2 weeks, then what may lay ahead... this pattern kind of reminds me of the may 03 pattern. does anybody else agree with that.?
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: ams30721us on April 22, 2011, 08:30:19 PM
Wow!!!!

KMOV just got a picture from the Airport...We got Vans that have gone airborn over fences!
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: toastido on April 22, 2011, 08:35:57 PM
I gotta give TWC credit.. They've preempted regular programming and commercials to go wall-to-wall on this storm..
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: ams30721us on April 22, 2011, 08:39:05 PM
I gotta give TWC credit.. They've preempted regular programming and commercials to go wall-to-wall on this storm..

Oh they have been doing this a few months now for significant weather.  I started a thread on it a few months ago. They have done way more better this year!
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Charles L. on April 22, 2011, 08:49:48 PM
Reports coming in do not sound good. St. Louis County EMS reporting people trapped in their vehicles on I-70 and also hearing reports of people trapped at the STL Airport...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: ams30721us on April 22, 2011, 08:51:37 PM
HOLY SNIKES:

Quote
Time: 2011-04-23 01:43 UTC
Event: 0 TORNADO
Source: emergency mngr
Remark: air national guard building damaged...and structural damage to buildings at the airport...and cars flipped

Quote
Time: 2011-04-23 01:34 UTC
Event: 0 TORNADO
Source: emergency mngr
Remark: tractor trailers standing on end.

Extensive damage at Lambert Airport!
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Milodog2 on April 22, 2011, 08:53:59 PM
Can not visualize a tractor trailer truck standing on it's end.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Timothy on April 22, 2011, 09:58:33 PM
Paducah getting into it

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
938 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  CENTRAL POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  EASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  NORTHERN BALLARD COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY..
.

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT.

* AT 936 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF LA CENTER...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  LA CENTER...
  KARNAK...
  WEST PADUCAH...
  NEW COLUMBIA...
  METROPOLIS...
  BROOKPORT...
 PADUCAH...
  LONE OAK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO IMPLEMENT YOUR TORNADO PLAN OF ACTION. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A HOME OR BUILDING.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3707 8912 3729 8912 3736 8853 3707 8852
      3707 8854 3707 8856 3703 8851 3697 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 268DEG 54KT 3718 8908

$$

Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: harlequin on April 22, 2011, 10:17:36 PM
The FAA reports that
Quote
Due to TORNADO DAMAGE, the Lambert-St Louis International Airport (STL) was closed as of Apr 22 at 08:54 PM CDT.  The date/time when the airport is expected to reopen is not known.

No fatalities have been reported; just a few injuries.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 22, 2011, 11:44:11 PM
looking at the 0z gfs. at hour 114 super cells r firing around east arkansas and west tn north miss. the lower level jet looks to be screaming late tuesday evening . ::wow::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 22, 2011, 11:50:07 PM
looking at the 0z gfs. at hour 114 super cells r firing around east arkansas and west tn north miss. the lower level jet looks to be screaming late tuesday evening . ::wow::
Hard to get supercells North of the low ;) That's pretty much either leftover from Tuesday or cool-sectored heavy rainfall.

Low track is way south this run...runs right along I-40...will be interesting to see what happens...could shift the best (Wed) threat to MS/AL and perhaps Southern Middle TN...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 22, 2011, 11:58:03 PM
the surface low looks north of us to me kevin. though not very far. but still looks like we are in the warm sector. and just below the surface low which is deepening and the help of a strong low level jet, it could get intersting. ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 22, 2011, 11:59:28 PM
the surface low looks north of us to me kevin. though not very far. but still looks like we are in the warm sector. and just below the surface low which is deepening and the help of a strong low level jet, it could get intersting. ::popcorn::

The surface low is just north of us...it runs near I-40 as mentioned...but the "supercells" you claim to see in the GFS would not be occurring in the warm sector...that was my point...the GFS is not trying to develop supercells there...its just typical heavy rainfall banding happening north/west of the low.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 23, 2011, 12:05:10 AM
To me Tuesday evening still looks to be the most significant threat to the MEG area...and it may stay just west again...back towards Little Rock. Wednesday's threat comes through here in the morning with a low track that's going to be within the margin of error of nothing or higher-end severe potential. Not much confidence can be put in that. Monday evening into overnight also has severe potential...though again it may be Little Rock's area taking the brunt. MEG's area may once again escape the worst just simply by timing of these features...but it still remains to be seen for sure. Somebody will be getting a big event sometime in this three-day period...however. We'll see if we can keep up the good luck we've been running...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2011, 12:10:06 AM
i have to agree with you kevin. i think at this time anything is possbile. its going to be close. tomorrows models will be important... just for trends alone. major sever event looks to be shaping up early next week... who gets the brunt of it, time wil tell.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 23, 2011, 12:14:11 AM
Yawwwwn, anywhere but here...stupid FedEx weather machine.

Personally...when it comes to tornado events...fine by me. We've had enough issues with QLCS events recently...no reason to up that to something tornadic.

Of course...don't take my comments as assuming my concern is not still there for this immediate area. Its there...it may be somewhat less than it was a couple of days ago when these shortwaves were modeled to be targeting us at severe weather prime-time (late afternoon/evening)...but its still there.

As an edit...my words from this morning...still very much applicable...

A quick look at 12z data does not change my thoughts/concerns much. Severe weather and/or flooding remains quite possible if not likely in the MEG area as well as other portions of the state sometime between Monday and Wednesday. For my region specifically...I'm currently pinning down areas West of I-55 on Monday Night...North of I-40 on Tuesday Evening...and East of the Mississippi River on Early Wednesday (and spreading East through the day)...but this remains subject to significant change.

Uncertainties exist with exact timing and storm modes...and thus it remains too soon to say whether one or more of these events becomes a significant outbreak. The regions of greatest risk that may end up evolving are still not completely determinable. It could encompass portions/all of TN...or it may remain one or more directions removed from the state.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 23, 2011, 12:24:24 AM
Final point for the night from me...please don't ignore or brush off the potential heavy rain and flooding...flash/areal/river...that will all be possible...in favor of being solely focused on severe weather potential. Depending on how things go this could be the more significant...widespread and life-threatening aspect of this event...such as was the case May 2010 (again...NO direct comparisons being made).

(http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/04/23/00/GFS_3_2011042300_F120_PCPIN_96_HR.png)

That's it for me tonight...again my time will be limited through the day tomorrow...updates though when/if possible...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2011, 12:56:46 AM
my final post of tonight. fwiw. the 0z euro is more north with the slp. over southern illinois and indiana. timing seems some slower than the gfs. but still painting a severe weather event.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 23, 2011, 02:55:37 AM
After years of sitting around here soaking up the copious amounts of weather knowledge, I found myself wanting to finally put it all together...I wanted to try to make sense of all the meteorological data that is out there.  So, behold my initial attempt at an EFD....Eric's Forecast Discussion.

I will preface this by saying THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST....it is only my personal interpretations/opinions of the impending weather system that looks to affect us in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.  This EFD is generally based off the GFS (since the data is readily accessible).

This system looks to be a double-barrell blast to the Mississippi valley.  Initially, beginning late Sunday/early Monday, there are going to be some folks that might very well be underwater.  The HPC has highlighted a bulls-eye of over 9 inches of rain over the mid-Mississippi Valley.  The last time I personally saw THAT much qpf highlighted on a map, was last May.  We all know how that one turned out.  I'm not going to venture into this part of the event, but will focus more on the severe weather threat that looks to follow the first round.

Early Tuesday afternoon, the energy that will feed this system is beginning to filter down into OK, where it pops a sub-1000mb surface low over the TX panhandle.  The surface low looks to strengthen, and in doing so, the wind fields begin to strengthen as well with a 100kt jet max entering the western sections of AR.  The shortwave at H5 takes on a subtle positive tilt as it translates northeastward.  There is a short window here, once the shortwave goes positive, that a threat for discrete activity could present itself across AR, stretching down into the northern sections of LA.  All the components are there: H7 is dry, thermodynamics are nearly perfect, instability levels are perfect, lifted indices are insanely high (-10 to -12 in spots).  The mitigating factors, though, that should limit the extent of this threat are crucial ones.  Looking at the progged skew-T for Little Rock, there is a slight temperature inversion above 850mb.  It doesn't look very deep, but could very well hold until more forcing arrives from the west that will break it.  Two, the lower level wind fields don't look all that impressive to me out ahead of the cold front.  

Here's where things start going bonkers.  As the shortwave migrates northeastward, it goes completely negative and closes itself off over Kansas City, with the upper level jet stream rounding the base directly overtop the mid-Mississippi Valley.  That should provide enough divergence to one, destroy any temperature inversion that was still present, and two, allow for rapid thunderstorm development, given the presence of all the other factors that will be present (CAPE, thermodynamics, Theta-E).

This beast of a system then decides to close itself off at H7.  Honestly, I can't remember seeing a stacked system in the middle of spring before.  She's gonna have so much energy, she won't know what to do with it all.  The system itself looks to slow down a bit....not sure why.  The Euro is about 6-12 hours behind the GFS, and the Canuck is even slower.  I hate to speculate, but the Euro and the Canuck might be seeing this hiccup and it could be screwing up their respective resolutions...I don't know.  FWIW, the UKMET and the DGEX are more in line with the GFS is selling, so that's where I'm placing my money right now.  

Tennessee begins to feel this system's effect early Wednesday morning as an intense QLCS rips through the MidSouth.  With a 100kt+ jet max in support, there could very well be numerous reports of wind damage with this system, in light of the fact that the wind fields pre-frontal passage aren't that impressive (15-20kt).  The QLCS should migrate eastward as the 992mb stacked low heads off to the northeast.  By 7pm Wednesday, the QLCS looks to impact BNA with strengthening upper level support via a 110kt jet max flowing almost due west to east.  There could be numerous reports of wind damage in the BNA area as well.  By midnight, the QLCS has reached the eastern portions of the state having weakened ever so slightly.  

Given the strength/dynamics of this system, I don't think the possibility of discrete activity is all that great except over areas of the ArkLaTex where the thermodynamics/kinematics will be the greatest.  Of course, if the threat for discrete activity DID increase, virtually all the progged skew-Ts from across the ArkLaTex into AR extreme west TN are supportive of a tornadic threat with large, clockwise hodographs.

While the severe threat looks mightily impressive, if the first round of water hangs around any longer than it's progged, it could have dire consequences for the subsequent round, either by delaying the onset OF severe weather or rendering the threat non-existent.  We just won't know that until the day of.



Great discussion Eric, I enjoyed reading it. Looks like a verifiable forecast to me. I think the warm sector will be alot wider than what is being modeled. Thus creating a widespread discrete threat IMO. Other than that I fully agree with your (professional like) forecast.

Once again great job. (http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTJvRLB70f47D8BmLgBHFbVdytyylsPjdM6OnWh3m0WoZSMqakS&t=1)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Twisted on April 23, 2011, 05:47:35 AM
I just wanted to say thanks to you guys! I have been lurking here for a while. I am afraid of tornadoes as I was in a F-3 in Pinellas Park Fl. In 1993 while living in a mobile home (I was a teenager then). There was no tornado warning that day. I recently decided to help deal with my fear by learning as much as I can about them. You guys have been by far the best source of information I have found. I live in Tipton County (Munford area) now. We are still doing repairs from last Tuesday's storm. Anyway I just wanted to thank you guys, it helps to know what to expect before it gets here. You guys are great.......now I will go back to lurking.

Btw when you guys talk about Memphis getting weather. Please don't forget us in Tipton County. The local weather men forget us all the time.  :)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2011, 06:57:44 AM
this morning afd from meg... they are going bullish... saying long track tornadoes possible late tuesday into wed.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 23, 2011, 07:09:24 AM
 ::cliff::

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif)
Just the shape and coverage of that D5 gives me the heebie jeebies ::lookaround::
Quote
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011
   
   VALID 261200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD
   ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAYS 4-6 /TUE. 4-26 THROUGH THU. 4-28/...AS A
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY 4 ACROSS THE
   MS VALLEY DAY 5...AND THEN ON EWD THROUGH DAYS 6/7.  MODEL
   DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BEGIN TO EMERGE
   DAY 5...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7 AS
   THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE E COAST STATES/ERN ATLANTIC.
   
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DAY 4 IS PROGGED FROM E TX NEWD ACROSS THE
   ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS ESEWD
   INTO THIS REGION...WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.  UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   COMBINED WITH THE ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED/STRONG
   FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING
   RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   THE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT E OF THE MS VALLEY INTO THE MID
   SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DAY 5...AS THE SHORT-WAVE FEATURE TAKES ON A NEUTRAL
   TO EVEN NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THIS REGION.  AGAIN -- AMPLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND
   ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE
   EXPECTED.
..INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
   
   AS MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND
   SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS...DEGREE OF THREAT SHIFTING ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS LATE DAY 5 AND INTO DAY 6 BECOMES LESS CERTAIN.  WHILE
   SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
   ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL REFRAIN FROM
   HIGHLIGHTING A THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.
   
   WITH THE FRONT LIKELY OFFSHORE BY THE START OF DAY 7... SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. APPEARS LESS
   WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AND MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF
   THE PERIOD.
   
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Milodog2 on April 23, 2011, 09:07:11 AM
I just wanted to say thanks to you guys! I have been lurking here for a while. I am afraid of tornadoes as I was in a F-3 in Pinellas Park Fl. In 1993 while living in a mobile home (I was a teenager then). There was no tornado warning that day. I recently decided to help deal with my fear by learning as much as I can about them. You guys have been by far the best source of information I have found. I live in Tipton County (Munford area) now. We are still doing repairs from last Tuesday's storm. Anyway I just wanted to thank you guys, it helps to know what to expect before it gets here. You guys are great.......now I will go back to lurking.

Btw when you guys talk about Memphis getting weather. Please don't forget us in Tipton County. The local weather men forget us all the time.  :)

Welcome aboard Twisted, Wednesday may be a rough one.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: StormNine on April 23, 2011, 10:04:18 AM
(http://i51.tinypic.com/2a5xaxe.gif)

 Not to be compared to previous flood events.  This is amazing for parts of KY/MO/NE ARK/IL/IN.  NW Mid TN and West TN may also get involved.  Not to be alarming but everyone needs to be on the lookout for flooding both flash flooding and especially river flooding.   Since this event is drawn over several days and not quite like in May 2010 where you had 24 to 36 hours of downpours the flash flood threat probably wont be as bad as May 2010 or March 1997.  Again every event is different and brings it's own characteristics to the table.  The heaviest rains should exist to the Northwest of Nashville and Memphis, but remember that a southern trend in the precipitation could still occur.  With upcoming severe weather do also remember that events with both severe wx and flooding can be extra dangerous. 
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: StormNine on April 23, 2011, 10:12:17 AM
  Still could be a Flash Flood threat to watch, but my concerns are more geared towards River Flooding.  Again not trying to say that we have a May 2010 or a March 1997 repeat, but there is especially along the MS river in West TN, MO Boothill, and Eastern Arkansas the potential for a pretty higher end river flooding threat.  Which may also include a severe weather and flash flooding threat as well across TN and KY.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 23, 2011, 10:18:49 AM
Those are some scary QPF amounts on that model graphic.

As a comparison, models were showing a bullseye of 7-9" in the days leading up to the May Floods.

Let's hope that changes... not a good situation wherever that occurs.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 23, 2011, 10:31:36 AM
I'm concerned that MEG is brushing off Tuesday as a non-event and Wednesday as a big day. Its going to be completely opposite IMO...as even SPC indicates by it D4 and D5 regions. The threat Wednesday is early and will be moving out quickly...if anything significant happens (and its an "if" still at this point)...especially back towards Memphis...its going to be Tuesday Evening or Tuesday Night. At least they did mention the timing Wednesday (before Noon locally) is not optimal.

Wednesday's threat also looks more linear/QLCS as Eric and others have suggested...as forcing becomes tremendous and uniformly oriented...though a few discrete cells may remain possible. The big discrete threat will probably happen Tuesday...and I still think more centered back towards Little Rock...but the MEG area will again have its best threat then.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2011, 10:49:44 AM
I'm concerned that MEG is brushing off Tuesday as a non-event and Wednesday as a big day. Its going to be completely opposite IMO...as even SPC indicates by it D4 and D5 regions. The threat Wednesday is early and will be moving out quickly...if anything significant happens (and its an "if" still at this point)...especially back towards Memphis...its going to be Tuesday Evening or Tuesday Night. At least they did mention the timing Wednesday (before Noon locally) is not optimal.

Wednesday's threat also looks more linear/QLCS as Eric and others have suggested...as forcing becomes tremendous and uniformly oriented...though a few discrete cells may remain possible. The big discrete threat will probably happen Tuesday...and I still think more centered back towards Little Rock...but the MEG area will again have its best threat then.
yeah i think tuesday afternoon and late tuesday overnight will be best chance to see super cells discrete.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: bugalou on April 23, 2011, 10:57:13 AM
Those are some scary QPF amounts on that model graphic.

As a comparison, models were showing a bullseye of 7-9" in the days leading up to the May Floods.

Let's hope that changes... not a good situation wherever that occurs.

No kidding.  Between the recent heavy rains to our north, snow pack melt further north, and now this, the MS river and its tributaries are something to keep an eye on.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Curt on April 23, 2011, 10:58:38 AM
I'm concerned that MEG is brushing off Tuesday as a non-event and Wednesday as a big day. Its going to be completely opposite IMO...as even SPC indicates by it D4 and D5 regions. The threat Wednesday is early and will be moving out quickly...if anything significant happens (and its an "if" still at this point)...especially back towards Memphis...its going to be Tuesday Evening or Tuesday Night. At least they did mention the timing Wednesday (before Noon locally) is not optimal.

Wednesday's threat also looks more linear/QLCS as Eric and others have suggested...as forcing becomes tremendous and uniformly oriented...though a few discrete cells may remain possible. The big discrete threat will probably happen Tuesday...and I still think more centered back towards Little Rock...but the MEG area will again have its best threat then.

Arent you supposed to be off today?
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 23, 2011, 10:59:36 AM
Arent you supposed to be off today?

I'm still at home for the moment. I said updates if/when possible. ;)
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2011, 10:59:56 AM
Arent you supposed to be off today?
yeah, you beat me to the question ::rofl::
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Curt on April 23, 2011, 11:06:06 AM
I'm still at home for the moment. I said updates if/when possible. ;)

Enjoy a day off. We will all need it by Wed evening .
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 23, 2011, 11:18:17 AM
Enjoy a day off. We will all need it by Wed evening .

As I will. :)

I may have an update late tonight after I'm back home and 0z data is in. Have good day folks!
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 23, 2011, 11:59:35 AM
This is from an MCD issued about an hour ago...

Quote
  MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0534
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1051 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN...NRN KY...SRN OH...SWRN WV
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
  
   VALID 231551Z - 231715Z
  
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THROUGH
   EARLY AFTERNOON.  PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE
   HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL.  PROBABILITY OF A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS 40 PERCENT THROUGH EARLY
   AFTERNOON.

I have never seen them actually put probs. about watch issurance in an MCD before. Must be something new...I like it.
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Thundersnow on April 23, 2011, 12:11:03 PM
so according to that were i live will get like a half inch of rain from this system? yea river flooding may be bad and flooding may be bad nw of tennessee but alot of middle tennessees around the 1inch amount.

But, with a bullseye of 10"+ of rain only 150 miles away, there's margin for error as far as where the heavy rains will end falling compared to what the models currently show...

That heavy rain potential needs to be paid attention to even in nearby areas that only show less than 1".

Hopefully, we're spared that here in Middle TN.  But, I don't wish it on anyone...
Title: Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
Post by: Charles L. on April 23, 2011, 12:13:26 PM
But, with a bullseye of 10"+ of rain only 150 miles away, there's margin for error as far as where the heavy rains will end falling compared to what the models currently show...

That heavy rain potentiall needs to be paid attention to even in nearby areas that only show less than 1".

Hopefully, we're spared that here in Middle TN.  But, I don't wish it on anyone...

Very well put and something I want to stress too. In NW Middle TN, they could see 3-5" of rain...that is so close to the rest of middle TN that I think we could see OHX issue a Flood Watch for all counties, even those across their eastern CWA...because the margin of error is so small due to this precip. gradient being so tight.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: StormNine on April 23, 2011, 12:14:25 PM
This is from an MCD issued about an hour ago...

I have never seen them actually put probs. about watch issurance in an MCD before. Must be something new...I like it.

They did it yesterday with a Watch in MO.  It said a 80% of a watch prior to 21Z I believe.  I like it as well.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 23, 2011, 12:31:19 PM
They did it yesterday with a Watch in MO.  It said a 80% of a watch prior to 21Z I believe.  I like it as well.

It helps me know exactly how confident a forecaster is in that specific zone for severe storms. A "watch possible" tagline probably uses probs. from 40-60%...and there is a lot of difference in a forecasters mind when it comes to 40% and 60%.

I applaud whoever came up with this idea, sounds like a good one and one that is easy to understand...yet adds even more useful information.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: StormNine on April 23, 2011, 01:01:14 PM
Quote
FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
958 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND REACH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMPLEX
WILL FORM A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE A FOCUS FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

ARZ008-009-017-018-MOZ113-115-TNZ001-002-232315-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.A.0006.110423T1700Z-110424T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...KENNETT...
CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY
958 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
 MISSOURI AND WEST TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
 IN EAST ARKANSAS...CLAY...GREENE...LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH. IN
 SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...DUNKLIN AND PEMISCOT. IN WEST TENNESSEE...
 LAKE AND OBION.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
  RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

* QUICK RISES OF RIVERS AND STREAMS IN ADDITION TO TERRAIN INDUCED
  FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BORGHOFF

This will probably get extended.  The FFW in West KY and Central KY will probably get extended to cover all of the Louisville/Paducah CWA and extended to Wed. Night.

Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 23, 2011, 01:10:05 PM
On AmWx, some of the people, even one Pro Forecaster, is saying that the 12z GFS shows a bloodbath, but at least, looking at the 12z GFS myself, West Tennessee will be spared from that bloodbath by the storm timing.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 23, 2011, 01:20:05 PM
On AmWx, some of the people, even one Pro Forecaster, is saying that the 12z GFS shows a bloodbath, but at least, looking at the 12z GFS myself, West Tennessee will be spared from that bloodbath by the storm timing.  ::fingerscrossed::

First time I have heard "bloodbath" to describe a weather event  ::popcorn::  :D
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Shanti on April 23, 2011, 01:36:18 PM
On AmWx, some of the people, even one Pro Forecaster, is saying that the 12z GFS shows a bloodbath, but at least, looking at the 12z GFS myself, West Tennessee will be spared from that bloodbath by the storm timing.  ::fingerscrossed::

BLOOD BATH????....FOR WHAT LOCATIONS??
And please define "blood bath"?...;)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2011, 01:40:22 PM
On AmWx, some of the people, even one Pro Forecaster, is saying that the 12z GFS shows a bloodbath, but at least, looking at the 12z GFS myself, West Tennessee will be spared from that bloodbath by the storm timing.  ::fingerscrossed::
i dont think it will matter for what time frame this storm comes through, with its dynamics n such. very potent
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 23, 2011, 01:41:30 PM
VAwxman on AmWx in the Central/Western Discussion forum in the appropriate thread, with a title similar to the title of this thread, says that Tuesday evening the atmosphere will be very unstable in Arkansas through West Tennessee with a weakening cap.  So maybe here?  :(
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 23, 2011, 01:45:09 PM
I wouldn't always completely disregard overnight threats. Obviously certain things have to be at play but the heart of some outbreaks can occur overnight, like November 24, 2001.

Those who are affected when the MS River comes out of its banks are definitely not going to be happy with this forecast...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: marjl21 on April 23, 2011, 01:49:21 PM
Wow... major changes to the crest information for the Mississippi River at Memphis:

Quote
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MEMPHIS
* FROM THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 12 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS...30.9 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 34.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY APRIL 28 AND
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 41.5 FEET BY SUNDAY MAY 8. ADDITIONAL
  RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
AT 40.0 FEET, HOMSTEADS ON ROBINSON CRUSO ISLAND ARE FLOODING. THERE
IS EXTENSIVE BACKWATER FLOODING ALONG THE WOLF AND LOOSAHATCHIE RIVER
IN WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY..


41. 5 feet would be the third highest crest on record, but they also note that it could go higher afterward.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: InMemphis on April 23, 2011, 01:52:08 PM
November 24, 2001 and April 16, 1998 are both examples of deadly overnight events.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 23, 2011, 02:04:40 PM
Wow... major changes to the crest information for the Mississippi River at Memphis:

41. 5 feet would be the third highest crest on record, but they also note that it could go higher afterward.


wow is right. When you start getting to 43'ish...we are not just talking alluvial plain flooding anymore.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 23, 2011, 02:06:40 PM
Gonna start a new thread on poss MS River flooding since it will be going on long after this week's severe event.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 23, 2011, 02:08:05 PM
Just wanted to quickly comment that I just saw the updated ms river (and other) forecasts...very sobering if these pan out. We will be outdoing 1997 and upstream locations will be challenging the records from the great floods of 1927 and 1937. I'm afraid this could be far more impactful than any severe weather we end up seeing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 23, 2011, 02:10:07 PM
The threat from this type of storm is a double whammy. Not only do you have to watch for the threat of tornadoes and wind damage but, also the threat of flooding which is a real threat for folks in Flood proned areas. I heard of a gentlemen in Hendersonville who had his home damaged by a tornado in the morning and then what was left was washed away by the flooding in the afternoon during the flooding in Nashville last may.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 23, 2011, 02:24:13 PM
I wouldn't always completely disregard overnight threats. Obviously certain things have to be at play but the heart of some outbreaks can occur overnight, like November 24, 2001.

Those who are affected when the MS River comes out of its banks are definitely not going to be happy with this forecast...

I think the Tuesday threat is much more daunting than the Wed threat, at least for now. And you are right, lack of daytime heating doesnt always kill instability in some situations; and this may be a prime example. Looking at MEGs tornado database in Shelby County, there numerous examples of EF3-4 tornadoes that occurred with damage and fatailites after peak heating. The infamous "F5" downgraded to F4 in Fayette Co in 1952 occurred at 10pm and was one of the most damaging tornadoes in state history. I'm not saying "blood bath" or hyping at all, but one shouldnt let their guard down if it doesnt occur during peak heating hours.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Shanti on April 23, 2011, 02:26:22 PM
Just wanted to quickly comment that I just saw the updated ms river (and other) forecasts...very sobering if these pan out. We will be outdoing 1997 and upstream locations will be challenging the records from the great floods of 1927 and 1937. I'm afraid this could be far more impactful than any severe weather we end up seeing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This comment is making me very nervous... ::hot::

also could you define what you mean by "upstream locations"? where those might be..
thanks in advance...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 23, 2011, 02:32:32 PM
9z SREF SigTor at hour 87:


(http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/6495/27396675.gif)

Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 23, 2011, 02:57:12 PM
This comment is making me very nervous... ::hot::

also could you define what you mean by "upstream locations"? where those might be..
thanks in advance...

This is the Mississippi River we're talking about here.  A lot of the flooding potential on that river is an effect of the rain and snowmelt runoff that is already coming from the upper Mississippi River valley, aside from the heavy rains coming next week.

Not to say we shouldn't keep an eye on flooding potential in Middle TN, but just to let you know, that statement was not about the Nashville area. :)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 23, 2011, 02:59:57 PM
Wow, looks like some energy there.  Curt or someone, could you give me a link to this?

Here you go...this is the SPC page where you can access lots of different maps that contain severe weather parameters, including sigtor:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/frames.php?run=2011042309

Just to note the above sigtor was for Wed.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 23, 2011, 03:01:54 PM
Here you go...this is the SPC page where you can access lots of different maps that contain severe weather parameters, including sigtor:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/frames.php?run=2011042309

Just to note the above sigtor was for Wed.

Looks like 0z wed.... Wouldn't that be tues night 7 pm?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Shanti on April 23, 2011, 03:09:47 PM
This is the Mississippi River we're talking about here.  A lot of the flooding potential on that river is an effect of the rain and snowmelt runoff that is already coming from the upper Mississippi River valley, aside from the heavy rains coming next week.

Not to say we shouldn't keep an eye on flooding potential in Middle TN, but just to let you know, that statement was not about the Nashville area. :)

I figured that...thanks for your reply on that..but I know so many people along that river.. I so hope that doesn't pan out.. ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 23, 2011, 03:41:13 PM
The NW half of MEG's CWA is in the SLIGHT risk for today and tomorrow. Unlike yesterday we are seeing a couple of severe storms going in the far northern counties.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 23, 2011, 04:09:36 PM
(http://img863.imageshack.us/img863/4581/image2.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 23, 2011, 04:18:09 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
415 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
  NORTHERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.

* AT 410 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
  NEAR MADISONVILLE
...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SACRAMENTO...MOVING
  EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  SACRAMENTO...
  BREMEN...
  SOUTH CARROLLTON...
  ISLAND...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 23, 2011, 04:24:57 PM
MEG seems bullish for severe for Monday through Wednesday afternoon, with the main flood threat Tuesday and Tuesday night.

*Under the section titled "MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT", MEG says Tuesday repeatedly in the second half, but I'm willing to bet it's a mistake and they're talking about Monday.

Quote
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT - LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP A TRAILING FRONT INTO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT. A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDSOUTH IN
ADDITION TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
MODERATE MLCAPE TUESDAY EVENING. STORM MODE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BUT SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
WHICH LEADS ME TO LEAN AGAINST A LINEAR MCS.
 NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE
SOME TIMING INCONSISTENCIES... RAISED POPS DURING THIS PERIOD TO
CATEGORICAL OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH.

TUESDAY - THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER... MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AGAIN OVER THE RED
RIVER. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY HIGH
PW VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING ALONG THE FRONT...ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING
CELLS COULD YIELD SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UNDISTURBED
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT. SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY IN THIS SCENARIO WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES EVIDENT IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LCLS.


TUESDAY NIGHT - THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH
IN THE EASTERN AREAS...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY FURTHER
WEST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. SO WHILE THE EASTERN
AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-40 MAY RECEIVE A RESPITE FROM THE
HEAVY RAIN...THE WESTERN AREAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE UNDER THE
GUN DURING THIS TIME AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. SEVERAL MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL
ADD TO THE GROWING FLASH FLOOD THREAT
.

WEDNESDAY - SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FINAL
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY HIGH WIND SHEAR WITH LONG...LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
MODERATE SBCAPE...AND A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE WILL SET
OFF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. I DON/T THINK MODELS ARE QUITE
HANDLING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WELL
ENOUGH...SO CAPE MAY BE HIGHER AND LCL/S MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS...SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG AND LONG-LIVED ARE POSSIBLE AS
PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED. SOMETHING INTERESTING OF NOTE...GFS
STRONG TORNADO PARAMETER IS AROUND 20 WHICH IS PRETTY
UNPRECEDENTED /1 OR 2 IS CONSIDERED HIGH/.


TO SUMMARIZE...BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY TOTAL QPF ON THE ORDER OF
4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH
. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE
PLACED UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROBABLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS
ALSO LIKELY AS THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN FALL PARALLEL TO THE
OHIO RIVER BASIN /IN EXCESS OF 10-12 INCHES POSSIBLE THERE/.
MAJOR FLOODING AND/OR RECORD RIVER FLOODING IS PROBABLE ON THE
MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT TWO-THREE WEEKS
. KEEP THE FINGERS
CROSSED THAT THIS DOES NOT TURN OUT LIKE THE MAY 1-2 EVENT LAST
YEAR.

Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 23, 2011, 04:42:38 PM
Looks like 0z wed.... Wouldn't that be tues night 7 pm?

er..you know what? my bad justin. youre right.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: dwagner88 on April 23, 2011, 04:49:10 PM
It will be interesting to see how the Mississippi reacts to this much water being dumped in all at once. I'm sure it's already at or near flood with all the rain so far this spring.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2011, 05:46:15 PM
just arrived in nashville to visit family... just checking out data on models... this system looks like a pick your own poison type. high wind damage, tornadoes some strong to viloent, and top  it off with severe flooding. wow ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: ams30721us on April 23, 2011, 06:02:21 PM
WOW! This has been a crazy, amazing (If you like and have an interest in Weather) in the Cincinnati Metro. As most know I work weekends here and we just got done with yet the 3rd round of Tornado warned storms move through the area. This last one was odd because We had people writing us and telling us "We cant go to the basements because most in this area or now flooded!" Something I have not even thought about. So the Ohio river is waaay above Flood stage already and we are just getting started it seems...Another round of Severe possibly Tor warned storms developing to the SW about to head this way tonight and another round if not two tomrorow then more Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday...Wow I cant remember the last Severe Weather Episode like this that was several rounds a day for days. Can anyone else think of a setup for days like this? The Energy that keeps getting involved to create several rounds of Severe a day is incredible to me.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2011, 06:05:00 PM
WOW! This has been a crazy, amazing (If you like and have an interest in Weather) in the Cincinnati Metro. As most know I work weekends here and we just got done with yet the 3rd round of Tornado warned storms move through the area. This last one was odd because We had people writing us and telling us "We cant go to the basements because most in this area or now flooded!" Something I have not even thought about. So the Ohio river is waaay above Flood stage already and we are just getting started it seems...Another round of Severe possibly Tor warned storms developing to the SW about to head this way tonight and another round if not two tomrorow then more Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday...Wow I cant remember the last Severe Weather Episode like this that was several rounds a day for days. Can anyone else think of a setup for days like this? The Energy that keeps getting involved to create several rounds of Severe a day is incredible to me.
i think this pattern reminds me of the may 2003 pattern.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: dwagner88 on April 23, 2011, 06:09:38 PM
i think this pattern reminds me of the may 2003 pattern.
Yep. Reminds me of this also. Pretty much a full week of constant storms and heavy rain. I recorded just over 10" here. We had near record crests (post TVA) on the Tennessee, and set a new record on the Chickamauga Creek. The creek is normally 100-150 feet wide, in some places it got over 1 mile wide during this flood.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Milodog2 on April 23, 2011, 07:37:30 PM
Have not checked the board that much today. ? is will Knoxville be in a threat for sever weather and are we talking slight chance or worse on Wednesday thanks.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 23, 2011, 08:03:12 PM
Have not checked the board that much today. ? is will Knoxville be in a threat for sever weather and are we talking slight chance or worse on Wednesday thanks.

Yes, Knoxville is in the threat for Wednesday...as far as I can tell, looks like this could very well be higher than a Slight risk day. Especially if the current parameters hold.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 23, 2011, 08:03:49 PM
It will be interesting to see how the Mississippi reacts to this much water being dumped in all at once. I'm sure it's already at or near flood with all the rain so far this spring.

The Mississippi has already flooded once this spring. The crests were fairly significant.

I have lived in a county bordering the Mississippi River my whole life thus far, actually. I never realized that until just now...

The levee system is so extensive in the lower MS River Valley that it will take an extreme event to break it. Post 1927 and 1937 I am unaware of any major breaks in it (New Orleans aside) below Cape Girardeau. When the levees failed in 1927 the MS River was up to 60 miles wide in places around Greenville, MS.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Milodog2 on April 23, 2011, 08:05:13 PM
Thanks WKU
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 23, 2011, 08:17:15 PM
MEg's AFD continues to express concern, like beneficil mentioned.

I thought this was pretty impressive:

Quote
THUS...SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG AND LONG-LIVED ARE POSSIBLE AS
PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED. SOMETHING INTERESTING OF NOTE...GFS
STRONG TORNADO PARAMETER IS AROUND 20 WHICH IS PRETTY
UNPRECEDENTED /1 OR 2 IS CONSIDERED HIGH/.


And unrelated, there's a pretty strong couplet in Newton County, AR. I'm always wary of tornadoes in N AR because they almost always seem to result in a fatality.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 23, 2011, 08:57:56 PM
MEg's AFD continues to express concern, like beneficil mentioned.

I thought this was pretty impressive:


Yipes... This is where I become concerned and my fear for life and property trumps my passion for weather.  I do not want anything this significant in all honesty.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Fred Gossage on April 23, 2011, 09:00:58 PM
Yipes... This is where I become concerned and my fear for life and property trumps my passion for weather.  I do not want anything this significant in all honesty.

If you believe the GFS, the setup for Tuesday is ominously similar to a big big tornado day in AR/TN from the 1950s.... even down to sfc feature placement/intensity... but until we get close enough to start looking at mesoscale issues... there is no need in throwing around analog dates, even if they are valid on the synoptic level. People look at a date... and refuse to take an analog for what it's really worth. Just know that this potentially analogs to a biggie from the past... for that area.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 23, 2011, 09:13:36 PM
If you believe the GFS, the setup for Tuesday is ominously similar to a big big tornado day in AR/TN from the 1950s.... even down to sfc feature placement/intensity... but until we get close enough to start looking at mesoscale issues... there is no need in throwing around analog dates, even if they are valid on the synoptic level. People look at a date... and refuse to take an analog for what it's really worth. Just know that this potentially analogs to a biggie from the past... for that area.

Mesoscale events are always the final factor with these systems.  I love weather in all it's extreme modes but today's GFS was a bit sobering for me.  I am finding myself hoping it backs off for once in my life!  As you said though it will come down to meso and all we can do is wait and see.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 23, 2011, 10:36:30 PM
MEg's AFD continues to express concern, like beneficil mentioned.

I thought this was pretty impressive:

And unrelated, there's a pretty strong couplet in Newton County, AR. I'm always wary of tornadoes in N AR because they almost always seem to result in a fatality.


I'm wondering where you can get the SigTor for ops models for free, because I don't see it on NCO or on TwisterData.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 24, 2011, 02:03:59 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day2probotlk_20110424_0600_any_prt.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 24, 2011, 07:33:21 AM
Okay now I am starting to worry a bit now that we are 2 days out. I do not see much change in the models. CAPE and Lift Indices are  ::wow:: and Dew Points too.

I don't see this as a CRY WOLFE event. Now I am only wondering if we get a MDT and/or a PDS

Things are really beginning to look really unstable and according to Twisterdata's GFS 66z run, the CAP is GONE!

Guess I better wash my brown pants, Looks like this is the real deal   
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2011, 07:46:37 AM
i think we have great potential to get put under our first high risk day for here in the midsouth. ::wow::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 24, 2011, 07:54:38 AM
This will, easily, be a MDT risk day...now High is still up in the air.

For long track tornadoes, I would like to see the winds be more backed...which would be aided by a more negatively tilted system. No doubt will this be a strong storm system with powerful dynamics to work with...that combo never bodes well for us, or anyone for that matter.

So I am not ready to call this a huge tornado day, but things are setting up for a severe day with large hail (up to golfball size is my early guess), widespread damaging winds, and tornadoes (how many and how strong is still uncertain).
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: stephens on April 24, 2011, 07:56:08 AM
I have not seen a major severe outbreak with tornadoes posted this far in advance. The experts must be really worried about this one. Tennessee has faired well the past few weeks compared to our nieghbors. We may be about to pay for it in spades. I have seen maps that have us in the bullesye late Tuesday and Wednesday. What do all of you think?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2011, 08:08:04 AM
I have not seen a major severe outbreak with tornadoes posted this far in advance. The experts must be really worried about this one. Tennessee has faired well the past few weeks compared to our nieghbors. We may be about to pay for it in spades. I have seen maps that have us in the bullesye late Tuesday and Wednesday. What do all of you think?
i do think late tuesday into overnight... look very hairy. the winds turning directional have my attention. storms should get surface based.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Adam on April 24, 2011, 08:35:38 AM
So if storms get surface based then the rotation has a better chance of getting to the ground?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 24, 2011, 08:40:53 AM
One of the more localized WRF's for the 26th  ::wow::

(http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lsx/wrf/mslp_57.png)
(http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lsx/wrf/mslp_60.png)

Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 24, 2011, 10:53:37 AM
HPC 5 day QPF- 12z

(http://img852.imageshack.us/img852/3658/49704896.gif)

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1039 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.UPDATE...

JUST GENERAL UPDATE TO FRESHEN THE GRIDS A BIT. SHOULD SEE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FIRE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MORE SPORATIC ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE PROBABLE IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA WHICH RUNS TIL 00Z. THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED AND
EXTENDED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THIS AFTERNOON/S PACKAGE
ISSUANCE. CONCERNS ARE MOUNTING THAT THIS EVENT COULD BE SIMILAR
TO THE MAY 1-2 STORM LAST YEAR WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT...
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. NEW HPC QPF THROUGH DAY 3 FEATURES 8+
INCHES FOR MOST OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR WEST TENNESSEE
. MORE
DETAILS LATER.

Looks like this is in reference to the western parts of the MEG CWA
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 11:51:53 AM
Latest models are really muddying things with lots of convection across the warm sector almost in a continuous basis from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Really hard to pick out specific times for the best severe weather potential. Of course...increased convection during the day may temper the severe threat some while further increasing the flooding risk. Exactly as we saw unfold on May 1-2, 2010.

Still unsure how this all play out. Tuesday afternoon/evening still look the worst threat for discrete cell storm mode...with things moving out quickly Wednesday and probably lining out as it heads east. Once again...don't know where MEG is coming from with this "major outbreak" talk for Wednesday. If it happens...its east of us...and probably Wednesday is going to be the QLCS day as suggested. Monday could be a discrete cell day as well back mostly west of the MEG area in AR evolving into a QLCS as it comes into this area Monday Night.

Again...models have been increasing daytime cloud cover/QPF in the broad warm sector at all times Monday-Wednesday. This increases the difficulty all-around in pinning down a severe threat...and does hurt confidence on just how intense this whole thing may get. Still tough to call IMO...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 12:04:02 PM
BTW...want to add to that...there are still going to be strong tornadoes somewhere between Monday and Wednesday. Increased convection will only do so much in this situation...perhaps prevent the worst-case scenario type outbreaks. The main problem is pinning down where these convective areas will be severe/tornadic discrete cells...severe line segments...or just very heavy thunderstorms with rainfall that will be flood-producers.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 24, 2011, 12:16:12 PM
Latest models are really muddying things with lots of convection across the warm sector almost in a continuous basis from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Really hard to pick out specific times for the best severe weather potential. Of course...increased convection during the day may temper the severe threat some while further increasing the flooding risk. Exactly as we saw unfold on May 1-2, 2010.

Still unsure how this all play out. Tuesday afternoon/evening still look the worst threat for discrete cell storm mode...with things moving out quickly Wednesday and probably lining out as it heads east. Once again...don't know where MEG is coming from with this "major outbreak" talk for Wednesday. If it happens...its east of us...and probably Wednesday is going to be the QLCS day as suggested. Monday could be a discrete cell day as well back mostly west of the MEG area in AR evolving into a QLCS as it comes into this area Monday Night.

Again...models have been increasing daytime cloud cover/QPF in the broad warm sector at all times Monday-Wednesday. This increases the difficulty all-around in pinning down a severe threat...and does hurt confidence on just how intense this whole thing may get. Still tough to call IMO...

I thought the May 1-2 outbreak was more moderate because the storms had trouble sustaining low level circulation? On the 1st I remember after we cleared out storms exploded over AR and there was about a dozen rotating supercells, but they had trouble putting down tornadoes.

I definitely understand where you're coming from with this potential outbreak, though.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 24, 2011, 12:18:13 PM
Potential watch for parts of the MEG CWA.
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0548.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Shanti on April 24, 2011, 01:45:37 PM
Latest models are really muddying things with lots of convection across the warm sector almost in a continuous basis from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Really hard to pick out specific times for the best severe weather potential. Of course...increased convection during the day may temper the severe threat some while further increasing the flooding risk. Exactly as we saw unfold on May 1-2, 2010.

Still unsure how this all play out. Tuesday afternoon/evening still look the worst threat for discrete cell storm mode...with things moving out quickly Wednesday and probably lining out as it heads east. Once again...don't know where MEG is coming from with this "major outbreak" talk for Wednesday. If it happens...its east of us...and probably Wednesday is going to be the QLCS day as suggested. Monday could be a discrete cell day as well back mostly west of the MEG area in AR evolving into a QLCS as it comes into this area Monday Night.

Again...models have been increasing daytime cloud cover/QPF in the broad warm sector at all times Monday-Wednesday. This increases the difficulty all-around in pinning down a severe threat...and does hurt confidence on just how intense this whole thing may get. Still tough to call IMO...

Really appreciate you're all around input here..especially with the Mon-Wed severe/flooding potential.

Wondering what your take is on this from MEG:
Quote
I DON/T THINK MODELS ARE QUITE
HANDLING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WELL
ENOUGH...SO CAPE MAY BE HIGHER AND LCL/S MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS...SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG AND LONG-LIVED ARE POSSIBLE AS
PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED. SOMETHING INTERESTING OF NOTE...GFS
STRONG TORNADO PARAMETER IS AROUND 20 WHICH IS PRETTY
UNPRECEDENTED /1 OR 2 IS CONSIDERED HIGH/.
Thanks in advance...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 24, 2011, 03:17:51 PM
I've never seen a Particularly Dangerous Situation Flash Flood Watch.

Snippets from MEG...
Quote
FLOOD WATCH...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
239 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

.A BOUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL.
THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG IT INTO MISSOURI AND
PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH TO ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS
FURTHER SOUTH TO ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEWLY STALLED
BOUNDARY AND SET OFF ADDITIONAL TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FINAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING THE PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ARZ026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MSZ001>014-TNZ003-004-019>021-
048>055-088>092-250400-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.A.0007.110426T0000Z-110428T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-
LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-
UNION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-
CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...
WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...HELENA...SOUTHAVEN...
OLIVE BRANCH...CORINTH...IUKA...TUNICA...BOONEVILL E...
CLARKSDALE...BATESVILLE...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...MARTIN...
DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MIL AN...HUNTINGDON...
COVINGTON...JACKSON...LEXINGTON...BARTLETT.. .GERMANTOWN...
COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERV ILLE...BOLIVAR...
SAVANNAH
239 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI
  AND WEST TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST
  ARKANSAS...CRAIGHEAD...CRITTENDEN...CROSS...
  LEE...MISSISSIPPI...PHILLIPS...POINSETT AND ST. FRANCIS. IN
  NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ALCORN...BENTON...COAHOMA...DE SOTO...
  LAFAYETTE...MARSHALL...PANOLA...PRENTISS...Q UITMAN...TATE...
  TIPPAH...TISHOMINGO...TUNICA AND UNION. IN WEST TENNESSEE...
  CARROLL...CHESTER...CROCKETT...DECATUR...DYE R...FAYETTE...
  GIBSON...HARDEMAN...HARDIN...HAYWOOD...HENDE RSON...HENRY...
  LAUDERDALE...MADISON...MCNAIRY...SHELBY...TI PTON AND WEAKLEY.

* FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

* TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
  NORTH OF I-40 WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-40. LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUCH AS THESE MAY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD...
  SIGNIFICANT...AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THIS EVENT
  MAY BE AS SEVERE AS THE MAY 1-2 2010 FLOODING IN PLACES. FLASH
  FLOODING OF CITIES...RURAL AREAS...RIVERS...AND SMALL STREAMS
  ARE POSSIBLE.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: ultra mag on April 24, 2011, 03:30:05 PM
 was just about to ask about that pds flash flood watch.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mattsrogers on April 24, 2011, 03:59:48 PM
I keep hearing Memphis being talked about flooding and even severe storms. Is the Dickson/Nashville Area out of the woods on both regards or if its not, when is Nashville area expected to see these rains and storms? Thanks! Happy Easter!
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 24, 2011, 04:02:07 PM
I keep hearing Memphis being talked about flooding and even severe storms. Is the Dickson/Nashville Area out of the woods on both regards or if its not, when is Nashville area expected to see these rains and storms? Thanks! Happy Easter!

No, we also have a flooding and severe threat...Memphis and west TN will get hit with this on Tuesday, us in middle TN and SCK, on Wednesday.

The flooding potential is higher across west TN, but those of us across middle TN need to watch for both flooding and severe weather as well.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: ajatwister on April 24, 2011, 04:07:18 PM
Yeah I've been wondering the same thing. I'm behind a good week on this forum and it seems like more Memphis people are getting hyped about this. will all this rain/flooding and storms hopefully miss the nasville area come Monday- Wed. Gish after last mats flooding I really trust u guys. Yall really did a great job predicting possible "flooding" during that event.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 24, 2011, 04:11:33 PM
HPC forecast model has been consistent in showing NW Middle TN seeing the majority of rainfall and higher amounts (5"+).

I think it is safe to say most of middle TN will see, between, 2-4" of rainfall with localized higher amounts especially N/NW of Nashville. But anyone that sees a severe storm(s) over these next few days, will have higher amounts.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mattsrogers on April 24, 2011, 04:18:48 PM
Thanks WKUWEATHER
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 24, 2011, 04:27:17 PM
No, we also have a flooding and severe threat...Memphis and west TN will get hit with this on Tuesday, us in middle TN and SCK, on Wednesday.

The flooding potential is higher across west TN, but those of us across middle TN need to watch for both flooding and severe weather as well.


I wouldn't write off Tuesday night in middle. The ingredients will be there late Tuesday pm through early wed pm for middle tenn
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 24, 2011, 04:32:14 PM
Latest models are really muddying things with lots of convection across the warm sector almost in a continuous basis from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Really hard to pick out specific times for the best severe weather potential. Of course...increased convection during the day may temper the severe threat some while further increasing the flooding risk. Exactly as we saw unfold on May 1-2, 2010.

Still unsure how this all play out. Tuesday afternoon/evening still look the worst threat for discrete cell storm mode...with things moving out quickly Wednesday and probably lining out as it heads east. Once again...don't know where MEG is coming from with this "major outbreak" talk for Wednesday. If it happens...its east of us...and probably Wednesday is going to be the QLCS day as suggested. Monday could be a discrete cell day as well back mostly west of the MEG area in AR evolving into a QLCS as it comes into this area Monday Night.

Again...models have been increasing daytime cloud cover/QPF in the broad warm sector at all times Monday-Wednesday. This increases the difficulty all-around in pinning down a severe threat...and does hurt confidence on just how intense this whole thing may get. Still tough to call IMO...


So do you think there is a chance that with all the potential convection that this could really weaken our chances for Tornadoes? Could it be that all the moisture associated with this system hampers the instability? I certainly hope that Memphis does not suffer the same fate as Nashville did last May. I am really concerned that Memphis gets dumped on and flooded out and then as it makes its way across into middle tenn( Weds AM) the sun peaks out and causes this thing to reenergize into an elevated severe event for BNA. I guess I don't understand how convection works with severe- Does more convection dampen severe?      
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 24, 2011, 04:45:04 PM

I wouldn't write off Tuesday night in middle. The ingredients will be there late Tuesday pm through early wed pm for middle tenn

That overnight convection does have my attention...for numerous reasons. Including the threat for severe weather with that.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 24, 2011, 04:52:58 PM
I'm not sure I get the threat for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Basically, despite the fact there would have been virtually zero sunlight all day Tuesday and training thunderstorms, the atmosphere will still be so unstable as to support strong and long-tracked tornadoes, am I hearing that right?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 24, 2011, 04:55:53 PM
I'm not sure I get the threat for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Basically, despite the fact there would have been virtually zero sunlight all day Tuesday and training thunderstorms, the atmosphere will still be so unstable as to support strong and long-tracked tornadoes, am I hearing that right?

Oh, I am not saying strong and violent tornadoes...for any day just yet, but especially not Tuesday night for us. I am just saying severe weather could be possible.

Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 24, 2011, 04:58:40 PM
Oh, I am not saying strong and violent tornadoes...for any day just yet, but especially not Tuesday night for us. I am just saying severe weather could be possible.



I'm sorry I wasn't responding to you, rather I was responding to the AFD:

Quote
DESPITE WIDESPREAD
QPF AND A MOIST ADIABATIC TYPE SOUNDING IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...MODELS STILL INDICATE ALMOST 2000 J/KG SBCAPE. VERY LOW
LCLS AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG....BACKED FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PUSHES OVER ARKANSAS. STRONG
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE. SPC SWO DY 3
INDICATES THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL AND A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO MDT
OR HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: cliftown04 on April 24, 2011, 09:17:16 PM
I'm curious as to whether the threat still appears as great as it did a few days ago.  The forum has been rather quiet today.  The threat being tornado outbreak for west and middle tn.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2011, 09:23:37 PM
I'm curious as to whether the threat still appears as great as it did a few days ago.  The forum has been rather quiet today.  The threat being tornado outbreak for west and middle tn.
o yeah, oznam rolling now at 42, looks like the winds at 700mb and 850 are directional in that time frame ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: InMemphis on April 24, 2011, 09:26:08 PM
I'm curious as to whether the threat still appears as great as it did a few days ago.  The forum has been rather quiet today.  The threat being tornado outbreak for west and middle tn.
A lot of people have probably been spending time with family today.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 09:48:59 PM
Apologies...but had computer issues most of the day.

Honestly...I'm getting less and less concerned about severe weather with this system. Will it happen? Yes. Could that include tornadoes? Perhaps...but more and more...especially for the MEG area...it seems the greatest risk once again is kind of moving around us...West tomorrow night...south/west Tuesday night (and Tuesday night is really looking much more questionable now...originally looked like the biggest day to me)...and well east/southeast on Wednesday.

Like May 1-2, 2010...severe weather will occur. But 95% will not care or be severely impacted by it in this area. The flooding...on the other hand...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 09:51:41 PM
o yeah, oznam rolling now at 42, looks like the winds at 700mb and 850 are directional in that time frame ::popcorn::

0z NAM is looking like a best case severe weather wise to me for this area. Tomorrow's threat is a remnant line early Tuesday Morning...The Tuesday Night threat looks like nearly a non-event...and Wednesday Morning the low pushes out quickly with secondary development down in MS...MEG area probably escapes with few problems severe wise.

My concern with severe weather...especially a big time tornado event...has dropped dramatically for this area in the Last 24 hours...I'm likely going to begin focusing on flooding from this point forward.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 24, 2011, 09:52:31 PM
From OHX AFD 3:49pm....conservatively bullish.   ::pondering::

Quote
THINGS WILL REALLY GET TO ROCKIN` AND ROLLIN` ON WEDNESDAY, AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYTEM DEVELOPS OVER ARKANSAS AND LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY BY 00Z/THU. STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVEN]]T FOR THE
MID STATE, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. A STRONG
FORECAST 850MB JET, OF 60 TO 65 KTS, COUPLED WITH 0-3KM STM
RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 500 M2/S2 COULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE
BEST POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THAT WE`VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON.



Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2011, 09:55:00 PM
0z nam says a sleepless night for the midsouth ::wow::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 09:55:58 PM
0z nam says a sleepless night for the midsouth ::wow::

Yes...big time flooding...severe weather...ehhh...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2011, 10:00:50 PM
Yes...big time flooding...severe weather...ehhh...
looks like a double barrel low to me kev.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: StormStalker on April 24, 2011, 10:03:04 PM
Apologies...but had computer issues most of the day.

Honestly...I'm getting less and less concerned about severe weather with this system. Will it happen? Yes. Could that include tornadoes? Perhaps...but more and more...especially for the MEG area...it seems the greatest risk once again is kind of moving around us...West tomorrow night...south/west Tuesday night (and Tuesday night is really looking much more questionable now...originally looked like the biggest day to me)...and well east/southeast on Wednesday.

Like May 1-2, 2010...severe weather will occur. But 95% will not care or be severely impacted by it in this area. The flooding...on the other hand...
Are you speaking for just the Memphis area in particular or Middle Tennessee as well?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 10:03:13 PM
looks like a double barrel low to me kev.
Secondary low development down in AR will choke off the warm sector across the MEG area as it moves into Northern MS during Wednesday Morning. Tuesday Night now looks like a near non-event honestly....and tomorow looks to be an early morning QLCS. I can't find any support for a major discrete cell threat for the MEG area anymore with these systems...again...severe remains likely...but this is not the major deal I was concerned about a few days ago.

This could be a lot like April 14-15...though I would expect not as intense. Little Rock area could have problems Monday/Tuesday...then MS/AL on Wednesday. We do relatively fine except for the hundreds of homes that will likely be under water.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 10:04:18 PM
Are you speaking for just the Memphis area in particular or Middle Tennessee as well?
Southern Middle TN could still have issues as the secondary low moves up into that area Wednesday Afternoon. Still worth watching...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 10:12:16 PM
you repell extreme weather, move to oklahoma where they need you more. Please

We'll see how much I "repell" extreme weather when people are dealing with flooding worse than last year next week...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 24, 2011, 10:18:29 PM
you repell extreme weather, move to oklahoma where they need you more. Please

Don't under estimate the flood threat.  Sure, it is not as sexy as tornadoes, but much more deadly.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 24, 2011, 10:19:00 PM
True, but thats not from all rain occuring here... Where extreme weather is not possible because of your presence. Lol.

I cannot make heads or tails of this statement.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 24, 2011, 10:19:53 PM
Well, speaking of the potential flooding... what are your thoughts? Totals in the Metro area won't really have much of an effect on river flooding locally (as that will come from upstream), but I'm wondering if the Metro will see high totals area wide. Last May there was a pretty sharp cutoff... even though everywhere got 3"+.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 10:24:56 PM
Well, speaking of the potential flooding... what are your thoughts? Totals in the Metro area won't really have much of an effect on river flooding locally (as that will come from upstream), but I'm wondering if the Metro will see high totals area wide. Last May there was a pretty sharp cutoff... even though everywhere got 3"+.

Probably widespread 4-6" with locally 8-12". Most will be along to just north of I-40 corridor...perhaps very similar to May 2010.

...Folks...ignore NorthMSTwister...he has tried to troll the forum in the past based on statements I have made (and he ONLY does it with me)...and he's doing it yet again now...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 24, 2011, 10:27:20 PM
The MCS back in western AR will probably be the first round of storms to not just affect the Missouri border counties...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2011, 11:11:48 PM
the 0z gfs has the lp almost on top of us on the second system. definetly more heavy rain there. with the most severe threat to the south. heck our best chances of severe weather may be with the first sytem late tomorrow night. this is getting complicated. ::coffee::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 24, 2011, 11:15:43 PM
no doubt, the flooding threat is insane with this, and Kevin, you should take me having alittle fun as a testament of your accuracy. You are generally always right, and the board including myself respect your judgement evertime you give it.

I appreciate the kind words...but I guess I've never taken your posts that way. I'm not trying to be harsh...but I can look back at your post history and a rather large percentage of your posts either quote me or refer to something I've said...and have followed generally with a one-liner of some sort that's not asking a question or making a general comment or observation...etc...and you don't seem to repeat this with anybody else. If I'm taking this wrongly...I'm sorry...

I won't lie...I'm not in a great mood tonight...and I wasn't before all the computer problems I had Today that kept me offline pretty much all afternoon. So...maybe my posts previously should be ignored. Let me try this again in a summary format of my thoughts this evening...and I'll try not to intentionally downplay...

1) There is still a severe threat for the Memphis/Mid-South area for Monday-Wednesday...though it likely won't spread much East of the TN River on either Monday or Tuesday. All of Tennessee will be in the Risk by Wednesday.

2) Severe Weather remains quite likely at periods during this time. Tornado watches may be nearly continuous starting Tomorrow Night for West TN At least.

3) Monday's threat will likely be worst over AR. Discrete cells including tornadoes /some strong/ are likely. This should evolve into a QLCS as it approaches the MS River and West TN late Monday Night and Tuesday Morning. Damaging winds are most likely then...but a few spin-up tornadoes are possible...not unlike we've seen numerous times already this year.

4) Tuesday's threat is increasingly more conditional...though carries higher end potential should things come together. What was potentially looking like the outbreak of the year may now be the tamest day of the three. Still...some severe weather should occur...with the worst though again back in AR. Tornadoes remain possible. The question will be if this threat ever reaches into Memphis/West TN. Warm front position is in question.

5) Wednesday Morning may be Memphis's biggest tornado threat as primary low moves just north...right before secondary low development begins SW and begins to redefine the warm sector. This should provide a window for a discrete cell threat...but it may be a narrow window...and will be at the time where historically the least tornadoes have occurred in the Mid-South (12-15z). Should this secondary low develop...it will then choke off the warm sector over West TN during Wednesday afternoon as discrete cells and/or line segments begin firing over MS/AL. This will expand into at least Southern Middle/Southeast sections of TN throughout the day. The Threat for West TN/North Middle TN is conditional on secondary surface low's impacts which is still fully TBD. More strong tornadoes are likely at least across AL/MS Wednesday. Whether they extend into TN again...we'll just have to see. The threat is there though.

6) The Flash/Areal/River Flooding Risk for the MEG Area (including West TN) is extreme. Middle and Eastern TN's risk is much much less though non-zero. Widespread and significant flash flooding will occur. Creeks/streams and small rivers will quickly go bank-full and above as heavy rain occurs. Levees may breach. This is totally separate to the MS River problems which will not occur until late this week and mostly the following week. When that occurs though...backwater flooding on some rivers that will first flood this week will renew and could be even worse and additional levee breaks are likely. As far as flash flooding...whether this is truly worse than last year is still unclear...it just depends on where heavy convective bands set up and how long they "train". For river flooding...this will be the worst event in any of our lifetimes here in this part of the state and region unless something totally unexpected happens. Perhaps not every river will exceed 1997 or 2010 levels...but several will...including most importantly the Mississippi River. Maybe not as far South as Memphis...but not far upstream...this will be our "1993" or any other big flood year of our generation that you want to use. Many will still manage to challenge 1927 or 1937. I can truly only hope something is being over exaggerated in the data to where this doesn't pan out. When flooding evacuation orders begin going out...whenever/wherever they happen (and they will)...please heed these notices or you will be risking your life. If you are in a flood prone area...make preparations and plans now for possible evacuation and long-term relocation. Hope for the best...but prepare for the worst.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2011, 11:21:43 PM
this is a most complicated event i have seen in a while kevin. little this n that then things could get very hairy. we all need to be prepared. guess its off to the euro now... its been showing the lp going north of us or or just going by to our nw. ::coffee::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 24, 2011, 11:41:14 PM
It looks like outflow is racing towards the Metro.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:08:50 AM
We'll have to see what becomes of this convection over AR. It hasn't been modeled that well. Could complicate Tomorrow's threat...too soon to say at this point.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 01:15:36 AM
On the new SWODY1 and SWODY2, Extreme W TN under MDT.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:19:21 AM
***ATTENTION***
SWM WATCH

Due to the severe weather and flooding event that may unfold across the region between later Today (Monday) and Wednesday...the TNWX Staff has issued a SWM Watch. The watch means that our Significant Weather Mode (SWM) may go into effect sometime between now and Wednesday. At this time...we expect SWM will likely be necessary at some point over the next three days...perhaps as early as later Today...so stay tuned for future announcements from the TNWX staff.

To those that are new to us...I urge you to read the rules and regulations that constitute SWM in preparation for the possibility of issuance.  Those can be found here...

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2376.0.html
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:33:24 AM
For Reference...

Day 1 Outlook (06z Issuance)...
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif)

Quote
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO SRN
   MO...WRN TN AND NWRN MS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK AND TX
   NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEYS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OH ACROSS MUCH OF PA
   AND NRN SECTIONS OF WV/MD...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS LIKELY FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY AS A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS
   THE REGION. ON MON MORNING...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
   ACROSS SRN OK...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING FROM
   CNTRL TX NEWD INTO MO BY 00Z. STRONG SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   WILL BRING MID TO UPPER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
   ARKLATEX REGION BY 00Z...THEN SPREADING NEWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER
   DURING THE EVENING. DESPITE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO EVOLUTION
   OF MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...A LARGE AREA
   OF STRONG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...ERN OK...NERN TX EWD INTO SRN MO...AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...
   SUBSTANTIAL MORNING CONVECTION...AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY...WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN DEFINING WHERE THE BEST TORNADO
   THREAT WILL BE EXIST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL BE ONGOING OVER ERN OK INTO AR AND SRN MO...WHERE THEY ARE
   CURRENTLY ONGOING THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINFORCE A COLD
   POOL OVER SRN MO/NRN AR. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AMPLE
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SOME ELEVATED SEVERE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.
   
   MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE DAY AND WILL MIX
   EWD TO JUST E OF I-35 BY 00Z WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL. AS MID
   TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS STREAM NWD ACROSS TX...THE AIR MASS WILL
   DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND SOME STORMS MAY FORM RELATIVELY EARLY OVER
   ERN TX...NRN LA AND MUCH OF AR. ALTHOUGH NOT OPTIMALLY TIMED IN A
   DIURNAL SENSE...SHEAR PROFILES WOULD STILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE
   THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL AND WIND.
   
   THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BETWEEN 21-00Z
   OVER NERN TX...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND FAR SRN MO AS
   THE UPPER JET DEVELOPS AND LIFT NEWD. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A 50
   KT LOW LEVEL JET...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
   TORNADOES...A FEW STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE EXACT NRN EXTENT
   OF THE STRONG TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT/OLD
   CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE.
   
   OTHER SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO/HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS SRN
   AR...NRN LA...NWRN MS OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...NEAR THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
   DEVELOPING UPPER JET.

Day 2 Outlook (07z Issuance)...
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif)

Quote
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
   TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN
   TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
   EASTERN U.S. FROM THE NORTHEAST/E COAST STATES TO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY/SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
   CONUS...AS ONE SHORTER-WAVELENGTH FEATURE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
   LAKES AND A SECOND DIGS SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  A SURFACE
   BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
   SWWD INTO N TX...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   CONVECTION -- INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER
   OUTBREAK FOCUSED FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
   REGION.
   
   ...ARKLATEX REGION ENEWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
   COMPLEX -- BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/DANGEROUS -- SEVERE WEATHER
   EVENT IS UNFOLDING FOR THIS AREA FOR DAY 2 /TUE. AND EARLY WED./.
   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHIFTING
   EWD/ENEWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS ALONG WITH ONGOING SEVERE
   POTENTIAL.
   
   GREATER SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS REGION HOWEVER WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
   THE DAY...AS AN INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEPARTING NEWD IS FOLLOWED
   BY A SECOND/DIGGING FEATURE SHIFTING QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES
   AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
   
   AS THIS OCCURS...BACKING/INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD IS
   FORECAST...WITH A 70-PLUS KT LOW-LEVEL JET TO SHIFT EWD FROM NE TX
   ACROSS AR/LA DURING THE EVENING...BENEATH MID-LEVEL WLYS INCREASING
   TO 70 TO 80 KT.
   
   AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
   ALONG THE WARM FRONT...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS N TX AND AR TOWARD THE
   MID MS VALLEY LATE.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
   ACROSS NE TX AND QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES EXPECTED.  A SUBSTANTIAL
   TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- SPREADING ACROSS NRN
   LA/AR AND THEN INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS LATE.  ALONG WITH TORNADO
   POTENTIAL...DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
   STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR E
   AS MIDDLE TN/NRN AR/NWRN GA BY 27/12Z.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
   THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
   SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
   ACROSS THIS AREA FOCUSING LARGE-SCALE UVV ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX.  WHILE AFTERNOON
   HEATING MAY BE HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD
   COVER...LOCAL AREAS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT
   AFTERNOON INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY -- AS FAR NE AS
   PA AND NY NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
   
   WITH A STRONG SWLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA
   /LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING FROM 50 TO 65 KT IN THE 850 TO 500 MB
   LAYER/...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...ALONG WITH
   LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS.  ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES.  THE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD WITH TIME AS THE FRONT
   SLOWLY ADVANCES...WITH SOME THREAT LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO NY/PA/WV.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:42:23 AM
The biggest question to the Day 1 MDT is the current convection in AR...as mentioned earlier and also within the SPC discussion above. If it maintains through the morning...the cold pool could be reinforced keeping stable air over the Northern half of the MDT (North AR/Southeast MO/West TN). This would kill the threat...at least for tornadoes (which is what the MDT is based on...wind/hail probs are SLGT risk criteria). Still TBD...

The Day 2 situation has many questions also as discussed to end up verifying the MDT...but we'll try to deal with things one day at a time at this point.

That's it for me Tonight...A long few days are ahead...let's hope it only causes sleep deprivation and nothing else...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 02:07:25 AM
Conditional situations can be so frustrating.

You can tell MEG didn't really anticipate this MCS really. Only 20% pops in Midtown and it's pretty obvious now that this is going to put down .5-1" here overnight. 30% pops in Cross County where the first round of heavy rain is about to move in.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: John1122 on April 25, 2011, 03:30:17 AM
MRX Hazardous Weather Outlook is extremely bullish with the severe threat, especially for Wednesday with the rarely used "strong and long tracked" wording for the tornado threat..

Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT MON APR 25 2011

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-261000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT) MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED
TORNADOES.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: vanster67 on April 25, 2011, 03:33:24 AM
Seeing how I now work 3rd here at the inn, I am up all night long.  Yes, it looks to be moving on in to West TN.  I wonder if it will stay to the west of the plateau.  I see the SPC has a Moderate risk in place for Mon, Tues, and Wed.  Alot of Tornado talk for Mid TN/TN Valley on wednesday.  Scary stuff.  I am definitely paying attention from now until this possible event is over.  I feel really bad about all the flooding going on, and the potential for even more flooding in West TN is heart breaking to think about.  I reckon there is potential for alot to happen in the next 3 or so days.  Everyone stay safe, Kevin, Eric an all thanks for the great info, and all the hard work.  Please keep us updated.  Thanks :)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Milodog2 on April 25, 2011, 04:57:02 AM
Can't recall MRX ever saying possable long track tornado's except on 11-10-2001 and that was mostly for the plateau. ::faint::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2011, 05:45:58 AM
WOW. cant say i rememeber so many moderate risk in a row. wouldnt suprise me by tomorrow morning to see a upgrade to a high risk ro day 2, portions of it .
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: StormNine on April 25, 2011, 06:32:08 AM
Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
606 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
606 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION
. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY OR
TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
DEADLY LIGHTNING. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE QUAD STATE REGION.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH IT APPEARS THERE MAY
BE A BREAK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...BRINGING
5 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LAST FRIDAY INTO THE 10 TO 15 INCH
RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION.


MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME
RIVER CRESTS MAY CHALLENGE HISTORICAL VALUES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED EACH DAY FROM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. SPOTTERS SHOULD ALSO REPORT ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS OR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THEY ENCOUNTER DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


$$

I present to you the PDS Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 07:36:42 AM
Some of these severe weather parameters are maxed out across middle TN Wednesday afternoon...setting up for a wild Wednesday if it holds.

The Tuesday morning convection does catch my eye for the threat tomorrow...but Wednesday is our day anyway, better get some good nights sleep gang, going to be a rough next few days.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 07:39:00 AM
Just sickening at the prospect that some places many be experiencing what the Nashville area felt last year.  I can truly empathize.  Hopefully, as few homes are in the path of these floods as possible...

My thoughts and prayers are with those areas.

One difference though... that statement out of Paducah describes 10-15" rainfall amounts over a 5-day period.  Nashville saw that in 36 hours last year...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: dwagner88 on April 25, 2011, 07:46:16 AM
While I believe the news-maker of this event will be the catastrophic flooding, I am very concerned to be inside a day 3 moderate risk. I can't recall when that last happened here.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 07:50:53 AM
A healthy looking line of storms is moving through Middle TN.  Looks to affect the Nashville metro area before rush hour is done.  :P

Sub-severe though... there are currently no warnings.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 25, 2011, 08:32:22 AM
While Nashville got most of the worst flooding last year. West Tn. was not spared then on the flooding. Many people lost everything here in Tipton county. A friend of ours had 5-6 feet of water INSIDE his business. The navy base was flooded as well as our neighborhood.  Yes, Nashville was more widespread and worse then here. But we took a hard hit ourselves. When the base flooded they said the levees overflowed cuz it was a once in a thousand year storm. I am worried about this happening twice in 2 years.  ::doh:: How bad do you guys think it will be in Tipton County and Millington? Both in terms of flooding and tornadoes. As I said before I have major PTSD  in regards to tornadoes. I respect your opinions more then our local weather guys. You guys are great! Thanks for keeping us in the loop.   ;D

April
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 08:43:21 AM
Great news for Today. Convection continues across the area with yet another MCS moving across Southern AR. SPC Has already pushed the MDT W/SW...leaving only sections of SW TN in it...and removed the hatching from this portion of it. I expect the MDT will eventually be pushed out of all of the state of TN later Today and additional sections of AR. Cold pool as hinted is being reinforced by continued convection...so the surface based severe threat is going to be significantly reduced across Central/North AR and West TN.

A few severe storms with hail/wind are possible into Tonight...and of course the flooding risk increases. But...I think any major tornado threat has been averted for this area for Day 1. Two more to go... :)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2011, 08:46:39 AM
Great news for Today. Convection continues across the area with yet another MCS moving across Southern AR. SPC Has already pushed the MDT W/SW...leaving only sections of SW TN in it...and removed the hatching from this portion of it. I expect the MDT will eventually be pushed out of all of the state of TN later Today and additional sections of AR. Cold pool as hinted is being reinforced by continued convection...so the surface based severe threat is going to be significantly reduced across Central/North AR and West TN.

A few severe storms with hail/wind are possible into Tonight...and of course the flooding risk increases. But...I think any major tornado threat has been averted for this area for Day 1. Two more to go... :)
i never really was to concerned for day 1 threat to begin with. thought severe storms are still possible. late tomorrow into early wed. i have my eye on
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 08:59:37 AM
Looks like SPC is monitoring East-Central AR...SW TN and North MS for a watch. Outflow boundary is south of this state and not moving anywhere anytime soon...so I can't forsee anything significant happening at this point...perhaps down into MS/AR ahead of that bow...but even then the main risk is damaging winds.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:09:35 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0567.gif)

Severe Line just South of Little Rock will probably follow the outflow boundary outlined in Blue. Could see an isolated tornado develop but most a wind threat given the already well established storm mode and associated cold pool. Nevertheless...tornado watch will probably be issued soon. Hopefully at least maybe they'll keep the TN counties out of it...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 09:10:29 AM
A healthy looking line of storms is moving through Middle TN.  Looks to affect the Nashville metro area before rush hour is done.  :P

Sub-severe though... there are currently no warnings.

Wow, line is really drying up as it moves into the Nashville area.  Basically a band of light to moderate showers now.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:12:21 AM
SPC issuing a SVR Tstm Watch...a few far SW TN counties are going to be included.

Good move not issuing a TOR Watch...thought they would...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 09:14:21 AM
SPC issuing a SVR Tstm Watch...a few far SW TN counties are going to be included.

Good move not issuing a TOR Watch...thought they would...

Just wait... if they get a spin up and have to issue a tornado warning, they'll convert it.

Though I will say, I was impressed they didn't issue a Tor Watch in Middle yesterday after that warned cell passed through.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BryanBarrett on April 25, 2011, 09:14:36 AM
Just reading OHX forecast discussion and there is no talk of tornado threat, but SPC has us already under moderate risk for potential outbreak (there words). So what gives? They're really playing up the flooding threat, as well they should be. But if there is a significant enough threat for SPC to already put us in moderate risk, shouldn't they at least mention the possibility? Heck, even MRX mentioned it and they're always the last to come on board. Plus, the Nashville TV mets seem like they want to say something about Wednesday's storm threat, but back off a bit because of OHX.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 09:17:48 AM
SPC issuing a SVR Tstm Watch...a few far SW TN counties are going to be included.

Good move not issuing a TOR Watch...thought they would...

Could be that the SPC is a little less ambitious on TOR watches in light of recent events and the potential over the next couple of days to keep the activity this morning in perspective...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 09:18:14 AM
SPC issuing a SVR Tstm Watch...a few far SW TN counties are going to be included.

Good move not issuing a TOR Watch...thought they would...

Isn't the ofb lifting north causing the convection over west tenn?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:19:07 AM
Isn't the ofb lifting north causing the convection over west tenn?
SPC's analysis looks good to me...It was done at 8:30...its north progress was small...if any...since then...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 09:19:36 AM
Just reading OHX forecast discussion and there is no talk of tornado threat, but SPC has us already under moderate risk for potential outbreak (there words). So what gives? They're really playing up the flooding threat, as well they should be. But if there is a significant enough threat for SPC to already put us in moderate risk, shouldn't they at least mention the possibility? Heck, even MRX mentioned it and they're always the last to come on board. Plus, the Nashville TV mets seem like they want to say something about Wednesday's storm threat, but back off a bit because of OHX.

It's not uncommon for OHX not to say much about severe risk when it's more than a day or two out.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:20:29 AM
Could be that the SPC is a little less ambitious on TOR watches in light of recent events and the potential over the next couple of days to keep the activity this morning in perspective...

Possibly so...hard to tell.

I like it though :)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2011, 09:21:18 AM
that storm to the sw of arkadelphia ar. is holding pretty good. slight rotation.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 09:21:39 AM
OHX does actually mention tornado threat in this morning's HWO:

Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-261000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A WAYNESBORO TO SPRINGFIELD
LINE. MAIN CONCERNS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MID STATE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN CONCERNS
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE MID
STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE
HAIL.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
TWO TO FIVE INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

$$

Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 09:22:12 AM
SPC issuing a SVR Tstm Watch...a few far SW TN counties are going to be included.

Good move not issuing a TOR Watch...thought they would...

MEG AFD seemed to indicate that the tornado threat would be small on Day 1 but would increase markedly for the later periods as the cold pool is overcome.  Whaddaya think, Kevin?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 09:24:24 AM
SPC's analysis looks good to me...It was done at 8:30...its north progress was small...if any...since then...

Just looking at radar, it looks like the meso moving through middle has weakened, and the ofb left by it seems to be pulling north, and the bow echo south of little rock starting to move more north than east. I guess we'll see.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:25:50 AM
MEG AFD seemed to indicate that the tornado threat would be small on Day 1 but would increase markedly for the later periods as the cold pool is overcome.  Whaddaya think, Kevin?

Its got a long way to go with the additional MCS coming in from Little Rock. Obviously by the time we get into Tue things will reset but we're going to be dealing with convection in the area pretty much through all of this that could have impacts on the threat...impossible to know how until we're getting into each individual situation.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:29:02 AM
Should be noted...despite the warnings...there have been no reports of severe weather with the line coming through AR. These could be slightly elevated with the cold pool established...if so we just a got a severe thunderstorm watch that may not produce anything other than heavy rain...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 09:33:40 AM
Its got a long way to go with the additional MCS coming in from Little Rock. Obviously by the time we get into Tue things will reset but we're going to be dealing with convection in the area pretty much through all of this that could have impacts on the threat...impossible to know how until we're getting into each individual situation.

Thanks for the input.  I've been looking at the HPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks and I thought they might be of interest here:

Day 1
(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif)

Day 2
(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98ewbg.gif)

Day 3
(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99ewbg.gif)



Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 25, 2011, 09:37:19 AM
Kevin, just wondering what your current stance is on the Wednesday threat.  Are you skeptical but avoiding the "downplayer" accusations?   Noticed you've been quiet about the subject since your analysis the other day.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:38:15 AM
Kevin, just wondering what your current stance is on the Wednesday threat.  Are you skeptical but avoiding the "downplayer" accusations?   Noticed you've been quiet about the subject since your analysis the other day.

I honestly haven't had any time to look at Wednesday beyond what I mentioned last night. I doubt I will be able to until Tonight...at the earliest.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2011, 09:40:05 AM
be interested to see if we can recover tomorrow. megs seems to think so. especially if we can get a well mixed boundary layer later in the afternoon tomorrow. plus the ssystem being so dynamic alone
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:43:58 AM
be interested to see if we can recover tomorrow. megs seems to think so. especially if we can get a well mixed boundary layer later in the afternoon tomorrow. plus the ssystem being so dynamic alone

Getting a well mixed boundary layer sure seems difficult in this setup to be honest. I don't see much opportunity for breaks...but I don't know.

We haven't been able to get more than 1 tornado the entire year in this entire area...probably no reason to start seeing that change now.  :D
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:47:18 AM
SPC Mesoscale Analysis...
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s15/sbcp/sbcp.gif?1303742714649)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s15/mucp/mucp.gif?1303742754049)

Lifted Parcel Levels are about 500-1000m with little Surface-Based CAPE. I think this line working in is slightly elevated...probably not going to be more than a 40-50mph wind threat unless that changes...and so far that's been the case based on the lack of reports in LZK's area. Starting to think even the SVR box was probably not needed...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 09:50:04 AM
Time for another EFD.  After pouring through things early this morning, I'm growing increasingly concerned about the potential for tornadic activity Wednesday afternoon across portions of western central Tennessee, say from about Jackson east to BNA.  About the time the first, stronger SLP scoots off to the northeast, it kicks off another secondary, weaker area of low pressure centered over parts of eastern AR.  As that SLP gets ramped up, a 90-110kt jet max rounds the base of the ULL trough into areas of west TN which would provide enough ULL divergence to support any convective threat.  

IMO, the secondary low will be the problem maker for areas of Mid TN.  It's not strong enough to provide a great amount of linear forcing, as opposed to a stronger, more "stacked" system, but yet there is still plenty of energy available to kick off areas of convection.  Both the 6z GFS and 6z NAM show a rather sizable dry punch at H7 over the western 2/3s of TN which should aid in convective development as well.  Various progged skew-Ts from around the TN River show little to no temperature inversion, so a cap will not hinder convection in this case.

6z NAM simulated radar shows what appears to be a few discrete cells that start popping up during peak heating Wednesday afternoon.  Taken at face value, those little "discrete cells" mean diddly, until you start digging through the available data that coincide within that particular timeframe; CAPE values begin to increase during the afternoon and the CINH values decrease.  0-1km EHI values steadily increase from 1 to a broad area of 2.5-3 over the western 2/3s of the state as do the 0-3km EHI values, which double in nature from 3.0 to nearly 6+ in spots.  Helicity values are more than sufficient to support tornadic activity, as well, with pockets of 0-1km SRH of 250+ m2/s2 and areas of 0-3km SRH of 550+ m2/s2.

With all that being said, there are still some factors that will temper this potential threat.  One, the window for potential discrete activity is quite small...maybe 2-3 hours.  If convective fires within that timeframe, I can see these cells becoming SVR/TOR in a hurry, but if convection DOES NOT fire, the threat is almost non-existent.  Two, whatever discrete storm that DOES develop will go linear after that 2-3 hour window as the linear forcing increases with the cold front passage.  Three, the progged skew-T hodographs aren't as "loopy" as they have been in the past.  While this does not say definitely one way or the other that tornadic activity will/won't develop, it's still something to keep in mind.  

While my concern for discrete tornadic activity is increasing, I'm in no way insinuating that we have a potential outbreak on our hands, nor am I willing to go off on a limb and say we're going to see strong, long-track tornadoes as I just don't that that is the case.  But, it only takes one EF-1/EF-2 tornado rolling through a populated area to render the potential threat justifiable.  
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:52:11 AM
Great discussion Eric :)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:54:52 AM
Pine Bluff gusted to a whopping 24mph when the line passed through there! Probably don't need SVRs anymore for this line...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 09:56:40 AM
Great discussion Eric :)

The force is strong with this one.  Obi-wan has taught him well.  :)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 09:57:37 AM
The force is strong with this one.  Obi-wan has taught him well.  :)

 ::rofl:: ::rofl::

It was the  ::bacon:: .
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 25, 2011, 09:59:23 AM
::rofl:: ::rofl::

It was the  ::bacon:: .

Here I thought it was because you stayed at a Holiday Inn Express...silly me.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 25, 2011, 10:18:39 AM
Guys & Gals...

I'm growing increasingly concerned for the N MS/N AL/TN areas for Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Numerically, the models are downright scary for these areas.  As mentioned by Eric, All of the synoptic features seem to line up for a widespread severe event, including ALL MODES of severe weather, with the possibility (and in all fairness, the likelihood) of a couple of Strong (EF2+), possibly long-tracked, tornadoes, mainly during the Late Morning through Evening hours on Wednesday. 

The threat on Tuesday seems a bit more limited, perhaps some large hail, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.  That threat will translate through the region beginning Tuesday Afternoon and Evening, giving way to the larger threat Wednesday.

There are, as Eric mentioned, some limiting factors, however.   I'm not convinced that there will be a small window for this threat, rather, a larger window.  The main limiting/mitigating factor, In my mind, is if we can get a repeat of the 4/15 situation, where a large MCS sets up across the TN Valley...strangling the better moisture return to the south, and keeping the atmosphere somewhat stabilized.  I honestly HOPE for that situation, because if not, there could be bigger issues than flooding across the region. 

Now is the time to make your emergency plans; know what to do should this weather threaten you.  Also, make sure you have a NOAA weather radio, with fresh batteries.  If you don't have one, it's the best ~$20 you can spend. 

I pray that everyone makes it through these next few days without harm, but in the back of my mind, I have a very bad feeling about this event. 
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 25, 2011, 10:19:43 AM
Should be noted...despite the warnings...there have been no reports of severe weather with the line coming through AR. These could be slightly elevated with the cold pool established...if so we just a got a severe thunderstorm watch that may not produce anything other than heavy rain...

I saw an intense, but small line this morning North of Texarkana, AR. Im not sure if it was part of the same line that is going through Central Arkansas now, but there were 2 storm reports down there. A funnel cloud near Fulton AR @ 910am, and downed trees in Washington. Both in Hempstead County. I suspect it was part of the cell moving through Dallas County now.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:26:29 AM
Guys & Gals...

I'm growing increasingly concerned for the N MS/N AL/TN areas for Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Numerically, the models are downright scary for these areas.  As mentioned by Eric, All of the synoptic features seem to line up for a widespread severe event, including ALL MODES of severe weather, with the possibility (and in all fairness, the likelihood) of a couple of Strong (EF2+), possibly long-tracked, tornadoes, mainly during the Late Morning through Evening hours on Wednesday. 

The threat on Tuesday seems a bit more limited, perhaps some large hail, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.  That threat will translate through the region beginning Tuesday Afternoon and Evening, giving way to the larger threat Wednesday.

There are, as Eric mentioned, some limiting factors, however.   I'm not convinced that there will be a small window for this threat, rather, a larger window.  The main limiting/mitigating factor, In my mind, is if we can get a repeat of the 4/15 situation, where a large MCS sets up across the TN Valley...strangling the better moisture return to the south, and keeping the atmosphere somewhat stabilized.  I honestly HOPE for that situation, because if not, there could be bigger issues than flooding across the region. 

Now is the time to make your emergency plans; know what to do should this weather threaten you.  Also, make sure you have a NOAA weather radio, with fresh batteries.  If you don't have one, it's the best ~$20 you can spend. 

I pray that everyone makes it through these next few days without harm, but in the back of my mind, I have a very bad feeling about this event. 

Another good discussion.

It amazes me that yet again things seem to be evolving to where the MEG area may escape this event without significant severe weather. Clearly...we're not at that point to say that for sure yet...but the trends in data are increasingly suggesting this may happen with Today's and Tuesday's threat look tamer and Wednesday's threat to evolve mostly East of the Mid-South. To have had as many significant events this year...with numerous tornadoes all-around us...to have only 1 confirmed tornado in this CWA so far is incredible. If we don't add to that number this week...even more incredible. Its certainly a possibility.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: steve317 on April 25, 2011, 10:26:58 AM
I had been looking for this thread in the Severe Weather area only to find it here.

Any reason this is in the Current Weather area? (Sorry for the "newbie" level question)  :)

Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:27:38 AM
I had been looking for this thread in the Severe Weather area only to find it here.

Any reason this is in the Current Weather area? (Sorry for the "newbie" level question)  :)



Oh wow...I didn't notice...and nobody else must have either. Moving now...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:40:35 AM
Convection is redeveloping pretty rapidly across East OK/W AR. Destabilization opportunities are limiting fast. Still expect SPC to shift the MDT back SW of the MEG region at 1630z...maybe even shift it out of Little Rock. Appears this may be a Arklatex event shaping up rather than what seemed possible this morning.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:44:09 AM
MEG will be going with SWAs on the line coming into their CWA vs SVRs as LZK has been doing. Another good call...this line is quite weak IMO and elevated above the stable surface layer...probability of severe winds is very low ATTM.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:49:59 AM
BTW...MEG has NOT done a conference call regarding any of this event yet. Thought they would do one yesterday but they never did...and so far nothing Today. Given weather already occurring...probably won't be one Today either. Hopefully people who normally rely on those for information already are aware of the situation unfolding...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Milodog2 on April 25, 2011, 10:53:08 AM
For the board, does Knoxville look to get in on any of this or will it fall apart before it gets here. Saw were SPC has us in a mod for Wednesday, was just wondering what your thoughts were on the Central Valley. Thanks.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 25, 2011, 10:56:21 AM
BTW...MEG has NOT done a conference call regarding any of this event yet. Thought they would do one yesterday but they never did...and so far nothing Today. Given weather already occurring...probably won't be one Today either. Hopefully people who normally rely on those for information already are aware of the situation unfolding...

Oddly, HUN hasn't done a briefing yet either...   ::shrug::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 11:07:42 AM
New Tornado Watch...
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0201_radar.gif)

This is basically where I think the MDT risk should be at 1630z instead of where it is now. Will see if SPC follows suit. Several of the Little Rock TV mets are already saying on Twitter that their area "has been saved" by this morning's convection...can't disagree at this point...and certainly applies up I-40 as well...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Crockett on April 25, 2011, 11:23:31 AM
For the board, does Knoxville look to get in on any of this or will it fall apart before it gets here. Saw were SPC has us in a mod for Wednesday, was just wondering what your thoughts were on the Central Valley. Thanks.

Wednesday will be the primary day of interest for the Knoxville area. The threat probably won't be as great as it is in, say, Nashville, but it's certainly there nonetheless.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 11:32:16 AM
SPC didn't change anything to the MDT risk...really surprised by this...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 25, 2011, 11:40:29 AM
It appears its strengthening in Eastern St Francis Co. Maybe even a little hail, or just very intense rain?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 11:44:40 AM
It appears its strengthening in Eastern St Francis Co. Maybe even a little hail, or just very intense rain?

It might be just a tad stronger. Probably just some heavy rain for a couple of hours.

After that it looks like a we'll see a break.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 11:47:57 AM
We're starting to see 500+ J/kg SBCAPE* building up into the Mid-South, including into the Memphis metro, whereas back west in Arkansas SBCAPE is virtually non-existent.  We may see some strengthening as the storms head east.

Here is the 1600 SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis for SBCAPE:

(http://i52.tinypic.com/5l3n7n.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 11:48:24 AM
So far doesn't look like anything more than 40mph wind gusts...maybe some pea-sized hail. SWA is currently in effect...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 12:18:13 PM
SVR for Shelby County and DeSoto County.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:19:49 PM
SVR for Shelby County and DeSoto County.

Looks very very borderline to me. West Memphis only gusted to 24kts as the line came through there minutes ago...we'll see if KMEM goes any higher...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 12:21:58 PM
Looks very very borderline to me. West Memphis only gusted to 24kts as the line came through there minutes ago...we'll see if KMEM goes any higher...

The warning text says the SVR was detected near Horn Lake:

Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  LYNCHBURG...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HORN LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT
  35 MPH.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 25, 2011, 12:24:06 PM
Just gotta a chance to look at twisterdata -Wow!
The CAPE and LIFT INDICES are CRAZY!

Things are just primed. I think we could see Severe both Tuesday and Weds!

 
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 12:27:28 PM
Wow, the SBCAPE has shot up in the past hour across the Mid-South.  I wonder if this is one of those systems where the atmosphere can recover quickly after storms have gone through.

(http://i56.tinypic.com/2jbmkon.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:27:56 PM
There's a bit of a hook and associated weak rotation just SE of the airport...don't think its TOR worthy but keep an eye on it...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:30:04 PM
(http://i55.tinypic.com/mj4fo3.png)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:31:46 PM
TOR Issued...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 12:33:22 PM
There's a bit of a hook and associated weak rotation just SE of the airport...don't think its TOR worthy but keep an eye on it...

Oh goodie...that's coming right for me.  This reminds me quite a bit of a few weeks ago...a non-event, rotation near the airport, and then, whamo...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 12:33:45 PM
Oh goodie...that's coming right for me.  This reminds me quite a bit of a few weeks ago...a non-event, rotation near the airport, and then, whamo...


Oh crap...again...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 25, 2011, 12:34:36 PM
Am i hearing tornado sirens in southeast shelby?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:34:58 PM
This is just yet another really marginal call by MEG here...really pushing it for any actual tornado happening...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2011, 12:35:21 PM
Weird, no info on line yet of any warning. Just hear the sirens.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:37:10 PM
Updated image...I'm pretty confident in saying there's no real tornado threat here...maybe some 50-60 mph wind gusts...

(http://i52.tinypic.com/2czudy1.png)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 25, 2011, 12:37:47 PM
Weird, no info on line yet of any warning. Just hear the sirens.

Here:

Quote
WFUS54 KMEG 251730
TORMEG
MSC009-033-093-TNC047-157-251815-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0049.110425T1730Z-110425T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1230 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1231 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SOUTHEAST MEMPHIS...OR
  NEAR SOUTHAVEN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  COLLIERVILLE AND GERMANTOWN.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:39:46 PM
We've had 4 tornado warning events this year with no verification. When will people start getting desensitized to this stuff?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:42:29 PM
KMEM only gusted to 20kts with the line...very weak activity pushing through...probably not even severe...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 12:43:46 PM
Skies to our west have a greenish hue.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 25, 2011, 12:44:13 PM
The back edge of the main band just passed through downtown Memphis. Really hard rain, marginal winds and a bit of light hail but otherwise nothing to get worked up over.

The most interesting part of the whole storm was how dark it got and how quickly it happened. It was almost pitch-black in my office for a couple of minutes. Wild stuff.

When the initial gust front and leading shelf cloud (probably not the correct term as this wasn't a supercell, but you get the picture) blew through before the rain, it was amazing to watch the updraft of moisture and wind associated with it. Not an updraft in the sense of what you'd associate with a tornado, but the clouds definitely had some twist to them and you could see a ton of rising action right behind that initial punch. Crazy to watch and would have been seriously scary if we'd been in the nastiest part of the storm.

I know we all hesitate to get too worked up over TOR warnings like the one issued for Shelby Co right now, but watching this thing move through I wouldn't be at all surprised for this to quickly and briefly spin something up. The low-level winds weren't all that impressive so anything that happens will probably be nothing to worry about.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: marjl21 on April 25, 2011, 12:44:35 PM
Just got in, drove through the storm on the north loop... winds were no more than 20-30 mph judging by looking at the trees.  There was some small hail.  WMC just showed hail falling at I-40 and Sycamore View on the TDOT cam that looked to be quarter to half-dollar sized.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:45:12 PM
Update...still nothing to worry about...
(http://i53.tinypic.com/5e5q15.png)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 25, 2011, 12:45:54 PM
Skies to our west have a greenish hue.

Same thing happened down here near the river. I actually commented on that to someone here. Bizarre to look at, for sure.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:48:16 PM
Uneventful here in Cordova...as expected...heavy rain and 30 mph wind gusts...no hail...just an ordinary thunderstorm as far as I'm concerned...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 12:49:49 PM
What would KMEG be looking at here for the tor warning, the northern part of the storm looks more threatening than the tor warned portion to me?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 12:52:17 PM
**Tornado reported by law enforcement.**

Quote
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1250 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

MSC009-033-093-TNC047-157-251815-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-110425T1815Z/
DESOTO MS-BENTON MS-MARSHALL MS-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN-
1250 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...SOUTHERN FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...
NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTIES...

AT 1248 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR BAILEY...OR NEAR COLLIERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
AT 1240 PM A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY LAW ENFORECMENT AT HACKS CROSS
ROAD AND HIGHWAY 385.


LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
COLLIERVILLE...GERMANTOWN...LA GRANGE...MOSCOW...PIPERTON...
ROSSVILLE...WILLISTON...BAILEY...CAPLEVILLE. ..PARKWAY VILLAGE...WHITE
STATION...PATTERSONVILLE...FORTY FIVE AND HAYS CROSSING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:53:59 PM
I highly doubt there was a tornado there...it doesn't match with radar data...probably was scud...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 25, 2011, 12:56:33 PM
Conservative HUN using outbreak wording in their HWO:

Quote

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1254 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-261015-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1254 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
TO OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
THE MAIN THREAT MAY EVOLVE INTO A FLASH FLOODING SITUATION WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECEDING
ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT. ALSO...THE WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

$$

KDW
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 12:57:02 PM
On my phone. They won't let us leave the library basement until the sirens even though this neighborhood isn't technically under a warning. Interestingly the power went out for about 45 seconds. Thats only happened once since I've been here.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 12:57:18 PM
Wow...Dave Brown agrees with MEG that the flooding event will rival May 2010...was not expecting him to be aggressive on that. Not surprisingly did say the TOR was unwarranted.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 12:57:50 PM
I highly doubt there was a tornado there...it doesn't match with radar data...probably was scud...

That is what Dave Brown says as well as he is driving in to WMC TV.... another case of over zealous public/law enforcement  ::doh::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 12:58:25 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1256 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EADS...OR
  NEAR CORDOVA...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CORDOVA.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:01:33 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1259 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EAST CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...


* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1259 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR EADS...OR 7 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF CORDOVA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS
  OF EAST CENTRAL SHELBY...NORTHERN FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN
  HARDEMAN...SOUTHERN HAYWOOD AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 25, 2011, 01:01:52 PM
This is a perfect example of why the NWS warning system and corresponding civil warning services are outdated and are not taken seriously, even in serious situations, anymore.

The sirens have gone off downtown FIVE different times, and this part of the county was never in any serious danger whatsoever. In fact, the skies are beginning to brighten down here now, and the sirens are still blaring.

They continue to go through cycles, go silent for a couple of minutes, and then fire back up.

90 percent of the general public doesn't know or care how these things operate - they just know what it means they hear them. Now, we have people walking through the office rolling their eyes and basically laughing at them.

Sorry for venting about it, but we're not in SWM so I had to get it off my chest. With the advances that have been made through polygonal warnings (rather than the classic warnings of old) there has to be a way to triangulate those with civil warning systems to offer a better product that people will heed. This is a joke.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 01:02:10 PM
I highly doubt there was a tornado there...it doesn't match with radar data...probably was scud...

(Making the assumption that you're right.)  If that's the case, then some basic re-education is warranted for public officials to make a distinction between a funnel cloud and a "tornado" (not even to mention the distinction between scud and a funnel cloud).
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 01:03:05 PM
In north Cordova, we had dime-sized hail (though not very much), heavy rains, and frequent lightning.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:03:18 PM
FYI...with no damage reported...treating this with major skepticism...but...
Quote
1240 PM     TORNADO          COLLIERVILLE            35.06N 89.68W  
04/25/2011                   SHELBY             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR    
  
            TORNADO REPORTED TO EMA BY LAW ENFOREMENT  
  
1241 PM     TORNADO          BARTLETT                35.22N 89.84W  
04/25/2011                   SHELBY             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR    
  
            TORNADO REPORTED TO EMA BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.  
  
1246 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W  
04/25/2011                   DESOTO             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR    
  
            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED NEAR THE KROGER NEAR COMMERCE AND  
            MT PLEASANT.  

You don't have a tornado hitting Bartlett and Collierville without damage...nothing has happened there that has been reported...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:04:03 PM
This is a perfect example of why the NWS warning system and corresponding civil warning services are outdated and are not taken seriously, even in serious situations, anymore.

The sirens have gone off downtown FIVE different times, and this part of the county was never in any serious danger whatsoever. In fact, the skies are beginning to brighten down here now, and the sirens are still blaring.

They continue to go through cycles, go silent for a couple of minutes, and then fire back up.

90 percent of the general public doesn't know or care how these things operate - they just know what it means they hear them. Now, we have people walking through the office rolling their eyes and basically laughing at them.

Sorry for venting about it, but we're not in SWM so I had to get it off my chest. With the advances that have been made through polygonal warnings (rather than the classic warnings of old) there has to be a way to triangulate those with civil warning systems to offer a better product that people will heed. This is a joke.


I could be wrong, but I do not think the public sirens have anything to do with KMEG other than the warning being issued, those are usually controlled by a town/city administration
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 01:04:28 PM
This is a perfect example of why the NWS warning system and corresponding civil warning services are outdated and are not taken seriously, even in serious situations, anymore.

The sirens have gone off downtown FIVE different times, and this part of the county was never in any serious danger whatsoever. In fact, the skies are beginning to brighten down here now, and the sirens are still blaring.

They continue to go through cycles, go silent for a couple of minutes, and then fire back up.

90 percent of the general public doesn't know or care how these things operate - they just know what it means they hear them. Now, we have people walking through the office rolling their eyes and basically laughing at them.

Sorry for venting about it, but we're not in SWM so I had to get it off my chest. With the advances that have been made through polygonal warnings (rather than the classic warnings of old) there has to be a way to triangulate those with civil warning systems to offer a better product that people will heed. This is a joke.

I agree.  The sirens are still going off here in Cordova, even though the immediate threat is over.  I'm worried that people will let their guard down because of this, as we could easily get a much more credible threat in the next couple days.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:07:34 PM
LOL...WMC hasn't even once mentioned the reported tornadoes...either in the SVS or LSR...  :D
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 01:09:04 PM
90 percent of the general public doesn't know or care how these things operate - they just know what it means they hear them. Now, we have people walking through the office rolling their eyes and basically laughing at them.

Yep... hence the comment I heard made when the sirens "stopped" here in Brentwood 5-10 minutes before the storm actually hit on April 4th... "The siren stopped, so I think it's okay to go back up."

Fortunately, there was nothing more than trees down around here.  But, an EF1 tornado damaged homes just a few miles away.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:10:47 PM
LOL...WMC hasn't even once mentioned the reported tornadoes...either in the SVS or LSR...  :D

Why is the tor warning using the wording "producing a tornado" is that because of the report the public gave back near collierville?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mattsrogers on April 25, 2011, 01:10:54 PM
I agree.  The sirens are still going off here in Cordova, even though the immediate threat is over.  I'm worried that people will let their guard down because of this, as we could easily get a much more credible threat in the next couple days.

Luckily I live in a small city with Hand Cranked Sirens. So I am thankful this does not happen. The only problem in my town is the 50 plus year residents that never listen to the sirens because "IT ALWAYS BREAKS UP and NEVER comes to White Bluff"  

My fear is you always watching those docs about Twisters and it always includes small towns with the older folks saying "It usually never hits our small town....but this time was differnt...and no one is prepared.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 01:11:49 PM
FYI...with no damage reported...treating this with major skepticism...but...
You don't have a tornado hitting Bartlett and Collierville without damage...nothing has happened there that has been reported...

Whatever it was apparenty had a pretty scary, convincing look to it to have generated so many eyewitness reports.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:12:07 PM
Why is the tor warning using the wording "producing a tornado" is that because of the report the public gave back near collierville?
No...MEG doesn't use "capable of producing" wording that most WFOs use by default. A study showed people ignored TOR warnings that used the words "capable of"...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Drew_ on April 25, 2011, 01:12:32 PM
Who is calling in these reports Barney Fife?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:13:15 PM
Quote
WWUS54 KMEG 251810
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
110 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

MSC009-033-093-TNC047-157-251815-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-110425T1815Z/
DESOTO MS-BENTON MS-MARSHALL MS-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN-
110 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...SOUTHERN FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...
NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTIES...

AT 110 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MACON...OR 13
MILES NORTHEAST OF COLLIERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
COLLIERVILLE...GERMANTOWN...LA GRANGE...MOSCOW...PIPERTON...
ROSSVILLE...WILLISTON...BAILEY...CAPLEVILLE. ..PARKWAY VILLAGE...WHITE
STATION...PATTERSONVILLE...FORTY FIVE AND HAYS CROSSING.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 01:13:36 PM
Good news: In an hour, the dewpoint at MEM has gone from 68 to 61.  A boundary probably went through, which should help limit instability.  Let's see how long it can hold.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 25, 2011, 01:13:47 PM

I could be wrong, but I do not think the public sirens have anything to do with KMEG other than the warning being issued, those are usually controlled by a town/city administration

I think you're right, but that's actually sort of my point. I think that city/county administrators need to really re-think the way they go about warning the public.

I'm in total agreement with Kevin in that MEG is very...uh....eager to issue warnings in some cases. But the root of my problem isn't really with them. If they want to be overly cautious then I'm good with it. I'd rather them err on the side of caution even if most of us on this board know there's no significant threat.

That said, if they're going to issue a warning for Eads and the sun is shining downtown 20 miles away, I'd prefer that they not blare sirens down here for 45 minutes. Not just because it's annoying, but because as others have pointed out - we could have some serious issues here in the next 72 hours with storms much worse than this one and the general public is going to be conditioned to not care when they really need to be paying attention.

By the way - the sirens are still going off.  ::bangingheadintowall::    :D
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:15:18 PM
I think you're right, but that's actually sort of my point. I think that city/county administrators need to really re-think the way they go about warning the public.

I'm in total agreement with Kevin in that MEG is very...uh....eager to issue warnings in some cases. But the root of my problem isn't really with them. If they want to be overly cautious then I'm good with it. I'd rather them err on the side of caution even if most of us on this board know there's no significant threat.

That said, if they're going to issue a warning for Eads and the sun is shining downtown 20 miles away, I'd prefer that they not blare sirens down here for 45 minutes. Not just because it's annoying, but because as others have pointed out - we could have some serious issues here in the next 72 hours with storms much worse than this one and the general public is going to be conditioned to not care when they really need to be paying attention.

By the way - the sirens are still going off.  ::bangingheadintowall::    :D

The siren issue is a major problem but of course that lies with Shelby County EMA. They refuse to upgrade their systems because of...of course...money.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 01:15:39 PM
They should be cutting back the warning from Shelby Co. soon, which'll get the sirens to stop.  Hearing sirens when there is no credible threat is annoying.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:17:04 PM
I think you're right, but that's actually sort of my point. I think that city/county administrators need to really re-think the way they go about warning the public.

I'm in total agreement with Kevin in that MEG is very...uh....eager to issue warnings in some cases. But the root of my problem isn't really with them. If they want to be overly cautious then I'm good with it. I'd rather them err on the side of caution even if most of us on this board know there's no significant threat.

That said, if they're going to issue a warning for Eads and the sun is shining downtown 20 miles away, I'd prefer that they not blare sirens down here for 45 minutes. Not just because it's annoying, but because as others have pointed out - we could have some serious issues here in the next 72 hours with storms much worse than this one and the general public is going to be conditioned to not care when they really need to be paying attention.

By the way - the sirens are still going off.  ::bangingheadintowall::    :D

Remember though, those public sirens are only for those who are outdoors, not intended for those inside buildings/homes
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 01:18:19 PM
We're planning to grill this evening here in north Cordova.  Do you all think we'll be rained out in the evening?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2011, 01:20:08 PM
Pretty large wall cloud here near Wolfchase about 20 minutes ago. I think that is what may have scared most folks. I couldnt see if there was any rotation. And in about an hour, we will be back in the sun.

(http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/7408/201104251745litvis.jpg) (http://img820.imageshack.us/i/201104251745litvis.jpg/)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 01:20:50 PM
OK...consider me EXTREMELY late to the party....but why is there a TOR warning for MEM with no obvious signs of rotation on BV scans or SRV scans?   ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:21:21 PM
Quote
TNC047-069-075-113-251845-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-110425T1845Z/
FAYETTE TN-HAYWOOD TN-MADISON TN-HARDEMAN TN-
119 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN HARDEMAN...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...SOUTHERN HAYWOOD AND
NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 119 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GRIFFEN...OR 20
MILES NORTHEAST OF COLLIERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BRADEN...
GALLAWAY...OAKLAND...BELMONT...LAMBERT...MOO RMAN...YUM YUM...TAYLOR
CHAPEL...MILLER...FAYETTE CORNERS...LACONIA...LONGTOWN...HICKORY
WITHE AND GRIFFEN.

Quote
TNC047-069-251845-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0226.000000T0000Z-110425T1845Z/
FAYETTE TN-HARDEMAN TN-
123 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN HARDEMAN AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
POWERS...OR 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLLIERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GALLAWAY...
HICKORY VALLEY...OAKLAND...WILLISTON...LAMBERT...MOO RMAN...YUM YUM...
TAYLOR CHAPEL...MILLER...FAYETTE CORNERS...LACONIA...LONGTOWN...
HICKORY WITHE AND GRIFFEN.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:21:55 PM
We're planning to grill this evening here in north Cordova.  Do you all think we'll be rained out in the evening?

You may be okay during the evening...but its questionable certainly if activity continues to fire back west across AR...probably most hold off until Midnight or later but well see...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 01:22:21 PM
Remember though, those public sirens are only for those who are outdoors, not intended for those inside buildings/homes

Right, but this is 4th time this year that I have witnessed (and also done myself) dozens of college students walking around campus with sirens blaring. I just did it like 5 minutes ago. People took it a little seriously on February 24 and April 4, but the past 2 times people just stroll about. Same thing happened on May 1 last year... the sirens went off over and over again and people were just walking around.

I was inside so I couldn't see the line come through. It did get very dark.. must have been something ominous to freak people out. Anyway the tornado reports don't really match up that well. Highly unlikely we had 2 different tornadoes on the ground at the same time.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2011, 01:24:03 PM
OK...consider me EXTREMELY late to the party....but why is there a TOR warning for MEM with no obvious signs of rotation on BV scans or SRV scans?   ::bagoverhead::

Law Enforcement reported. I did see a quick blip in SE Memphis when the first TOR was issused though.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 01:24:44 PM
Pretty large wall cloud here near Wolfchase about 20 minutes ago. I think that is what may have scared most folks. I couldnt see if there was any rotation. And in about an hour, we will be back in the sun.

Sounds like there was just a shelf cloud scare.

I'm supposing the lack of anything compelling on radar was simply overridden by excited public reports, and the NWS didn't question it?  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 01:26:42 PM
Law Enforcement reported. I did see a quick blip in SE Memphis when the first TOR was issused though.

I guess the question I have is, why not let the warning expire? 
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:28:44 PM
FYI - A MASSIVE amount of River Flood Warnings were just issued by MEG...nothing MS River related yet...but just about every river in the CWA is now under a flood warning.
Quote
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG continues Flood Warning for the St. Francis River at St. Francis [AR] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG extends time of Flood Warning for the St. Francis River at Lake City [AR] valid at Apr 26, 7:00 PM CDT till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG extends time of Flood Warning for the St. Francis River at Madison [AR] valid at Apr 27, 11:40 PM CDT till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 5:40 AM CDT for the Obion River near Martin [TN] till Apr 28, 10:25 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 10:00 PM CDT for the Obion River near Obion [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 7:00 PM CDT for the Obion River near Bogota [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 4:16 PM CDT for the South Fork Forked Deer River at Jackson [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 9:34 PM CDT for the South Fork Forked Deer River near Halls [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 2:05 PM CDT for the Wolf River at Germantown [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 5:54 AM CDT for the Wolf River at Rossville [MS] till Apr 28, 7:00 AM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 3:00 PM CDT for the North Fork Forked Deer River at Dyersburg [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 28, 1:00 PM CDT for the Hatchie River near Bolivar [TN] till Apr 29, 1:00 AM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 29, 1:00 AM CDT for the Hatchie River at Rialto [TN] till Apr 29, 7:00 AM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 7:27 PM CDT for the Loosahatchie River at Arlington [TN] till Apr 28, 2:21 AM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 10:55 AM CDT for the Coldwater River near Sarah [MS] till Apr 28, 5:09 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 28, 7:00 PM CDT for the Talahatchie River at Locopolis [MS] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 28, 11:00 PM CDT for the Talahatchie River near Swan Lake [MS] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 8:36 AM CDT for the Little Talahatchie River at Etta [MS] till Apr 28, 6:13 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 5:59 AM CDT for the Town Creek at Tupelo [MS] till Apr 27, 9:26 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 11:09 AM CDT for the Tombigbee River at Bigbee [MS] till Apr 28, 9:40 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 11:00 PM CDT for the Tombigbee River near Amory [MS] till Apr 28, 6:00 PM CDT
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Drew_ on April 25, 2011, 01:31:01 PM
it's going to be a sad day when Dave Brown retires...sometimes I think he's the only one around here (besides Kevin) with a cool head on his shoulders.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 01:31:45 PM
Remember though, those public sirens are only for those who are outdoors, not intended for those inside buildings/homes

This may be technically true but it is inconsistent with the actual application by the public.  This means that either we need a massive reeducation to get the public to understand this or we need to upgrade the systems to fit the way they are being used by the public.  
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 25, 2011, 01:31:58 PM
Pretty large wall cloud here near Wolfchase about 20 minutes ago. I think that is what may have scared most folks. I couldnt see if there was any rotation. And in about an hour, we will be back in the sun.


I was really hoping we'd stay under cloud cover the rest of the afternoon to limit the atmosphere's chances to recover, but that's a fairly ominous satellite image.

Temperatures and dewpoints may be able to bounce back fairly quickly if that gap holds true and the line forming back in OK/W AR slows down a bit.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Mr. Golf on April 25, 2011, 01:32:11 PM
Kevin, fwiw, spc extended mod risk further north and east from previous outlooks. I wanted to ask you something. Since there is such a small mod risk for tomm currently, does that usually mean we wont see a high risk go out? Just wondering your thoughts on a potential high risk for tomm? thanks
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 01:32:33 PM
Not much chatter on this yet as attention seems split between how today will evolve and the increasing Wednesday threat, but the SPC has enlarged the risk for tomorrow.
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day2probotlk_20110425_1730_any_prt.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:33:01 PM
it's going to be a sad day when Dave Brown retires...sometimes I think he's the only one around here (besides Kevin) with a cool head on his shoulders.

Ehhh...Dave Brown should retire sooner than later. While I agree with his conservative philosophy at times...Dave Brown takes it to an extreme that's aided by a personal vendetta against the MEG office. He's said some awful things in the past about them...both publicly on-air and privately in phone conversations with staff there. The stories are NOT pretty....not simple criticism of warnings (though it certainly includes that)...outright personal attacks.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2011, 01:33:56 PM
12z NAM and GFS both plugging 6-7 inches of rain at KMEM in next 48 hours. GFS then gives another 1-2 at MEM over the weekend. Consensus is amazing here and these amounts I would bet might be conservative.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:34:18 PM
This may be technically true but it is inconsistent with the actual application by the public.  This means that either we need a massive reeducation to get the public to understand this or we need to upgrade the systems to fit the way they are being used by the public.  

I was just thinking that the outdoor siren system as a whole is completely outdated....

Also WXK49 going off for all the flood warnings one after the other.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 01:34:53 PM
You may be okay during the evening...but its questionable certainly if activity continues to fire back west across AR...probably most hold off until Midnight or later but well see...

Here's hoping that the time leading up to and during the game are good for traveling, etc...and, hopefully, people will be able to get home without a lot of problems/interruptions.  Obviously, I'm hopeful that there won't be any major problems or even any interruptions to ruin the atmosphere tonight at the Forum because this is a big deal for the city as a whole.  

Oh, a little OT, but Go Grizzlies!
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:35:04 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
134 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 134 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
  ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EATON TO HILLVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DYERSBURG TO 11 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  BROWNSVILLE...HUMBOLDT...JACKSON...MILAN AND TRENTON.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 01:35:12 PM
SBCAPE is going down as the system passes through.  Is this a good thing?

(http://i56.tinypic.com/14udmkw.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 01:36:45 PM
12z NAM and GFS both plugging 6-7 inches of rain at KMEM in next 48 hours. GFS then gives another 1-2 at MEM over the weekend. Consensus is amazing here and these amounts I would bet might be conservative.

Haven't seen an updated HPC graphic for total qpf yet...if so, my apologies.  Bulls-eye continues to be MEM proper, but it also appears as if the larger amounts keep edging eastward, too.   ::pondering::

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif)

Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:37:37 PM
My goodness my weather radio has gone off about 7 times in a row for these flood warnings...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 01:39:02 PM
SBCAPE is going down as the system passes through.  Is this a good thing?

(http://i56.tinypic.com/14udmkw.gif)

Generally, lesser amounts of SBCAPE mean less surface-based instabililty.  While not a be-all-end-all, it greatly lessens the chance of any convection becoming rooted in the boundary layer, and turning severe.  However, if the atmosphere can recharge...and given the amount of moisture near the surface, those SBCAPE levels could rebound.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:39:15 PM
My goodness my weather radio has gone off about 7 times in a row for these flood warnings...

I've only heard weather radio do this once other than this...for some winter weather warnings up near Cleveland,Ohio/Pittsburgh,PA, this is nuts
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:42:15 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
141 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTH CENTRAL WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE.
..

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ALAMO...OR 14 MILES
  NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HUMBOLDT...
  MILAN AND TRENTON.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 01:42:20 PM
My goodness my weather radio has gone off about 7 times in a row for these flood warnings...

This is the #1 problem with the wx radios.  They need the capability to select your criteria.  I only want to be woken up from my slumber in select situations.  I do not live in a flood prone area, so I normally do not want to be woken up for flood, flash flood, etc.  Ideally, I'd like to be woken up for TOR/SVR for my area specifically.  

As I alluded to the other night, I normally do not keep it on anymore since I have sirens so close.  I know I am not supposed to do this, but I don't like waking myself and the entire family up over these warnings.  
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Drew_ on April 25, 2011, 01:43:02 PM
Just wondering if it's possible all this rain overnight/today will have enough of a stabilizing effect to knock some of the punch out of the system later?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:44:06 PM


Another situation where I see what they're doing...but its marginal...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2011, 01:44:53 PM
Haven't seen an updated HPC graphic for total qpf yet...if so, my apologies.  Bulls-eye continues to be MEM proper, but it also appears as if the larger amounts keep edging eastward, too.   ::pondering::

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif)



They have indeed. 7 inch getting mightly close to Nashville. AFter a severe threat tomorrow night, the spigot really turns on. In fact, looking at the NAM and GFS, the flood threat may outdo the severe threat even for mid TN. Lots of convection that just keeps training. Low on NAM ends up on top on Nashville by Wed pm.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:46:12 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
144 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 144 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
  ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HILLVILLE TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
  SOMERVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTH OF
  BROWNSVILLE TO 21 MILES EAST OF COLLIERVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
  30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOLIVAR...
  HENDERSON...CHICKASAW STATE PARK...CHICKASAW STATE FOREST AND T O
  FULLER STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 25, 2011, 01:49:41 PM
 ::whistling::
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0572.gif)
Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251848Z - 252015Z

PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 200 IF MCS MAINTAINS ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

AT 1830Z...MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS WAS MOVING E ACROSS FAR WRN TN AT
AROUND 40 KT. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
OVER WRN TN DECREASING INTO THE LOW 60S/UPPER 50S OVER MIDDLE TN.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. GIVEN THIS DESTABILIZATION...MCS OVER
WRN TN MAY MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES MIDDLE TN. AN
ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..GARNER.. 04/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 01:50:20 PM
Another situation where I see what they're doing...but its marginal...

Kinda what I was thinking.....there might be something there on the SRV scans, but diddly poop on base velocities....

(http://i54.tinypic.com/2zdyrnc.png)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 01:51:49 PM
They have indeed. 7 inch getting mightly close to Nashville. AFter a severe threat tomorrow night, the spigot really turns on. In fact, looking at the NAM and GFS, the flood threat may outdo the severe threat even for mid TN. Lots of convection that just keeps training. Low on NAM ends up on top on Nashville by Wed pm.

If THAT verifies, then the severe threat does indeed go down the toilet.   ::pondering::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 01:52:27 PM
The cell does appear to be a comma-head/bookend vortex rotation. These can occasionally produce a tornado...though the signature is still not incredibly strong.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: elicoleman on April 25, 2011, 01:52:34 PM
This is the #1 problem with the wx radios.  They need the capability to select your criteria.  I only want to be woken up from my slumber in select situations.  I do not live in a flood prone area, so I normally do not want to be woken up for flood, flash flood, etc.  Ideally, I'd like to be woken up for TOR/SVR for my area specifically.  

As I alluded to the other night, I normally do not keep it on anymore since I have sirens so close.  I know I am not supposed to do this, but I don't like waking myself and the entire family up over these warnings.  

That's one thing I love about the NWS app on my iPhone is that I can avoid getting the sounds for some of these warnings. However, I don't turn them off. It's funny being around people when that thing goes off for a Flood Warning and people are startled by the sound.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:56:19 PM
That's one thing I love about the NWS app on my iPhone is that I can avoid getting the sounds for some of these warnings. However, I don't turn them off. It's funny being around people when that thing goes off for a Flood Warning and people are startled by the sound.

On one weather radio I have you can defeat Flood warnings from playing
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 25, 2011, 01:59:08 PM
That's one thing I love about the NWS app on my iPhone is that I can avoid getting the sounds for some of these warnings. However, I don't turn them off. It's funny being around people when that thing goes off for a Flood Warning and people are startled by the sound.

On a side note... What NWS app?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 01:59:38 PM
Quote
TNC017-033-053-113-183-251930-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-110425T1930Z/
CROCKETT TN-CARROLL TN-GIBSON TN-WEAKLEY TN-MADISON TN-
158 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL MADISON...SOUTH CENTRAL WEAKLEY...GIBSON...WEST CENTRAL
CARROLL AND EAST CENTRAL CROCKETT COUNTIES...

AT 157 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. A TORNADO INDICATED BY RADAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR GIBSON WELLS...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HUMBOLDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GADSDEN...
GIBSON...HUMBOLDT...MCLEMORESVILLE...MILAN.. .TRENTON...TREZEVANT...
CROWLEY STORE...STAFFORDS STORE...COXVILLE...MASON GROVE...GOOD
LUCK...SKULLBONE AND HOLLY LEAF.

Quote
WWUS54 KMEG 251901
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
201 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TNC023-047-069-075-109-113-251930-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0228.000000T0000Z-110425T1930Z/
FAYETTE TN-HAYWOOD TN-MADISON TN-CHESTER TN-HARDEMAN TN-MCNAIRY TN-
201 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MCNAIRY...HARDEMAN...WESTERN CHESTER...SOUTHERN
MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD AND EASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 201 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLOVERPORT TO HICKORY VALLEY...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF CHICKASAW STATE FOREST
TO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOLIVAR...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOLIVAR...
HENDERSON...HICKORY VALLEY...HORNSBY...MEDON...MOSCOW...TOONE...
WILLISTON...TAYLOR CHAPEL...MILLER...FAYETTE CORNERS...LACONIA...
PATTERSONVILLE AND MORTON HILL.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 02:06:40 PM
As per Memphis Weather/Kevin I have created a separate thread to continue posting watches and warnings for the current system to avoid clogging up this thread, hopefully it should make the discussion easier here
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 02:09:20 PM
DPs and temps are recovering pretty quickly. Tunica fell as low as 63/59 but is now up to 70/66.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 02:15:51 PM
On a side note... What NWS app?

Could this be it?   ::shrug::

http://www.appstorehq.com/noaanationalweatherservice-iphone-30907/app

Quote
Convenient Exclusive Access to NOAA NWS Land & Marine Weather Activity for the United States and US Territories.

This application is not officially affiliated with NOAA or NWS. This application provides current reliable weather information via the official NOAA NWS product data feed service. The National Weather Service provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warning... Read Mores for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community.

This project is a work-in-progress that is largely driven by user feature requests and product feedback. Additional features unique to NWS product services shall continue to be added over time (i.e. "push notifications"). Future product improvements and feature updates shall remain free for all existing users. Please feel free to actively contribute your ideas or suggestions and help improve the overall usefulness of this weather application.


• Perfect for quickly checking the current weather conditions.
• Perfect for safety conscious weather enthusiasts and hobbyists.
• Perfect for traveling or planning that next outdoor activity...

BBQS • BOATING • BIKING • CAMPING • CYCLING • CLIMBING • CROSS COUNTRY • DRIVING • FISHING • FOUR WHEELING • FLYING • GOLFING • HIKING • HORSEBACK RIDING • HUNTING • JET SKIING • JOGGING • KAYAKING • MOTOCROSS • RACING • RAFTING • RUNNING • SAILING • SIGHTSEEING • SKIING • SNOWBOARDING • SNOWMOBILING • SPECTATOR SPORTS • SURFING • SWIMMING • TRAVEL • VACATION • WATER SKIING


FEATURES INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT VERSION:

√ NWS Marine - Weather Module
• Coastal Outlook
• "Wave Height" Map
• Composite Radar [*animation requires OS 3.0 and above]
• Offshore Outlook
• High Seas Outlook/Hurricane Center Map

√ NWS Land - Weather Module
• Current Conditions/Extended Outlook
• "Predominant Weather Forecast" Map
• Composite Radar [*animation requires OS 3.0 and above]
• Geolocates the nearest land forecast & event areas
• Search for additional forecast areas by "City, St." or "Zip Code"

√ NWS County Events - Watches, Warnings, and Advisories
• Event Details (issue/expire dates, additional instructions, and counties)
• Select from over 120 color coded event types
• Enhanced Color Coded Event Map (identifies counties involved)


• Zoom (Forecast Maps and Radar)
...using "pinch" & "double-tap" gestures

• Refresh (Forecast Summary, Maps, and Radar)
...by "shaking" your device


Questions / Comments / Suggestions
nws.iapp@gmail.com
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Drew_ on April 25, 2011, 02:18:38 PM
DPs and temps are recovering pretty quickly. Tunica fell as low as 63/59 but is now up to 70/66.

Does that mean that all this rain isn't going to help us at all?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: elicoleman on April 25, 2011, 02:30:04 PM
Could this be it?   ::shrug::

http://www.appstorehq.com/noaanationalweatherservice-iphone-30907/app


Yup, that is it. Best app that I have honestly. With it, I don't need to carry my weather radio anymore.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: InMemphis on April 25, 2011, 02:31:50 PM
Does that mean that all this rain isn't going to help us at all?
The atmosphere seems to be doing a decent job recovering. I am even getting some sun.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 02:35:07 PM
Seems like the stuff in AR is devloping with the same problems we had 4/19...with significant anvil debris spreading across Central AR. We'll have to see what impact this has. With a timing yet again between 6z and 12z...tonight's threat should be limited to damaging winds and maybe a tornado or two...but probably not even that and maybe no worse than this afternoon. Just have to wait and see. I still believe the MDT could be lifted for this area for Tonight...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2011, 02:35:26 PM
Dont know about severe tonight, but the trajectory of that flow from the gulf into the ULL in Oklahoma is a little bothersome for very heavy and training rain for some locations.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 02:38:18 PM
Half of MEG's blanket SVR area may not even end up seeing rain...that line is weakening rapidly...just one small-scale bow lifting NE toward Paris.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 25, 2011, 02:38:56 PM
New watch out for Middle TN.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2011, 02:50:01 PM
kevin. wonder if meg is planning on doing a conference call for tod ::shrug::ay or especially tomorrows potential... all of this going on or the potential, still no special weather statement.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 02:52:47 PM
kevin. wonder if meg is planning on doing a conference call for tod ::shrug::ay or especially tomorrows potential... all of this going on or the potential, still no special weather statement.

No conference calls...everything is already ongoing so there's no time to fit one in...I suppose if there's a break tomorrow they may try to fit one in...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 03:04:43 PM
The situation in NW AR/NE OK is starting to get really serious.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 03:06:20 PM
I had to step out for a minute guys, again, I created the new thread for posting watches and warnings only in to avoid clogging this discussion
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 03:08:35 PM
10% hatched TOR moved back over SW TN:

(http://i55.tinypic.com/xndx09.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 25, 2011, 03:16:03 PM
That's one thing I love about the NWS app on my iPhone is that I can avoid getting the sounds for some of these warnings. However, I don't turn them off. It's funny being around people when that thing goes off for a Flood Warning and people are startled by the sound.

Is this available for android?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 03:17:14 PM
Yup, that is it. Best app that I have honestly. With it, I don't need to carry my weather radio anymore.

Does that play the eas warnings,also is there an android version?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 03:29:39 PM
PDS Tornado Watch out for much of AR...though the northern section of this watch is decked in cloud cover and rain.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: kristin on April 25, 2011, 03:31:12 PM
I would love to have an Android version of that.

Total newbie question, but Forbes TOR:CON has us in middle Tn at a 6 on Tuesday and a 7 on Wednesday, could that change and how worrisome is that? I have a son traveling for baseball and it just makes me a nervous wreck.

Thanks!!
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 03:33:53 PM
I would love to have an Android version of that.

Total newbie question, but Forbes TOR:CON has us in middle Tn at a 6 on Tuesday and a 7 on Wednesday, could that change and how worrisome is that? I have a son traveling for baseball and it just makes me a nervous wreck.

Thanks!!

Hmmm...surprised he has Tuesday almost the same as Wednesday.

I could see Wednesday increasing to an 8, at most, and tomorrow staying at 6.

No doubt is Wednesday our big severe day...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 03:34:59 PM
10% hatched TOR moved back over SW TN:

(http://i55.tinypic.com/xndx09.gif)

Hmm. The airmass has recovered a lot quicker than I expected. Tunica is pushing 80... mid 70s across Shelby... low 80s in Pine Bluff. Storms are really getting going west of Shreveport and the supercells in W AR are getting some confirmed tornado reports, but they're also becoming more embedded in the rain shield. I really don't know how this is going to play out...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: ultra mag on April 25, 2011, 03:36:32 PM
 Was wandering that too will those cells in ark. weaken as they cross the river?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 03:38:11 PM
Was wandering that too will those cells in ark. weaken as they cross the river?
At the least...they should congeal into a squall line or multicell system. Eventual severity of that is still up in the air.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: kristin on April 25, 2011, 03:39:43 PM
Hmmm...surprised he has Tuesday almost the same as Wednesday.

I could see Wednesday increasing to an 8, at most, and tomorrow staying at 6.

No doubt is Wednesday our big severe day...

*faints* I'm a severe weather junkie but not when the kid is on the road. Do these type of storms break up when they hit the plateau?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: ultra mag on April 25, 2011, 03:40:27 PM
 Thanks for the quick reply learning more about sever weather all the time.Thanks again.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 25, 2011, 03:41:33 PM
The dewpoints are recovering without any hiccups. that could make this system a little worrysome  Tuesday and Weds...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 03:42:49 PM
*faints* I'm a severe weather junkie but not when the kid is on the road. Do these type of storms break up when they hit the plateau?

Not this go around, severe threat will be present across all of TN...from Memphis to Bristol. Higher potential is for west and middle TN, but even east TN has a substantial threat.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 03:45:01 PM
The dewpoints are recovering without any hiccups. that could make this system a little worrysome  Tuesday and Weds...

Honestly, I don't think what's happening today has ANY effect on what's going to go down Wednesday.......  ::wow::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: kristin on April 25, 2011, 03:46:36 PM
Thanks for the replies, did I mention I also work for an insurance agency?  LOL  This is not going to be a fun week for work!  ::drowning::

Keep up the great work!
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 25, 2011, 03:48:16 PM
Yeah this almost like a warm up to Weds- I guess it shows how unstable things are right now... Started in Memphis then headed towards Jackson and hit that strong warm air out of the Gulf that pushed it north.  

Interesting to watch.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: elicoleman on April 25, 2011, 03:49:50 PM
Does that play the eas warnings,also is there an android version?

Nope, no EAS warnings. And from what I can tell, no Android app yet. I'm sure at some point, there will.

By the way, here's a good review video of it. http://youtu.be/HmpULHP-bjU
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 25, 2011, 03:51:07 PM
The local mets here in Chattanooga are stating that they are very concerned about the severe threat around here for Wednesday. Very rarely do they ever talk like this about severe weather ahead of time.

Is the situation really shaping up to be that bad?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 25, 2011, 03:51:52 PM
HUN smells trouble brewing...

Quote

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
346 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE MS
AND TN VALLEYS AND IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM AS PERTAINS TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT HAVE INCLUDED AN UPDATED PERSPECTIVE.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FIRST LOW IS
BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ALONG THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROF...SPURRING STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE ARK-
LA-TEX AND ALSO FURTHER EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT
EXTENDING TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF OUR CWA UNTIL APPROX 6AM
TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES /IN EXCESS OF
1.5 IN AT TIMES/ STARTING DURING THIS PERIOD AND LASTING THROUGH WED
EVENING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FF WATCH SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE VERY HEAVY RAIN STARTING WITH THIS FIRST ROUND
OF STORMS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX OF ALL MODES. THE NAM EVEN INDICATES
DISCRETE CELLUAR STRUCTURE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND...WHICH IS A
SLIGHT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING OF A SOLIDLY MCS/QLCS STRUCTURE
THAT INITIALIZES TO OUR WEST AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THIS INCREASES
THE CONCERN FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON TUESDAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.


IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THIS EARLY MORNING ROUND OF
STORMS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME DRIER AIR LOOKS
TO MIX IN AT MID/LOW LEVELS...WHICH COULD SPELL TROUBLE IF STRONG CI
CAN BE REALIZED
. EVEN IF THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN...ONGOING PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY AND WILL ADD TO THE HYDRO CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD. THEN AS WE
TRANSITION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MODELS HAVE STRONG/SVR STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER AR AND W TN /CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER/ WHICH THEN
MERGE INTO A MCS AND PUSH EASTWARD. THE MAIN PUSH OF THIS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT STILL PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR WX...ALL BEFORE THE MAIN LINE ARRIVES.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS STILL FORECAST TO BE THE MAIN EVENT
FOR THE TN VALLEY...AS THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND A
VIGOROUS LL JET IN EXCESS OF 60/70KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED...WITH CURRENT FORECASTS AND ANALOGS
POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
. EVEN SETTING
SEVERE WEATHER ASIDE...BACKGROUND WINDS WILL LIKELY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT/THURS
MORNING...STRONG CAD WILL DROP TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND THOUGH UNDER A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SE. MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE EURO. AGREED
WITH HPC DISCUSSIONS WHICH INDICATED A PREFERENCE FOR THE ECMWF SOLN
BUT FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE TRIED TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO DETERMINISTIC SOLNS. THIS WOULD BRING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE TN VALLEY LATE ON SUNDAY. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR CONVERGING MODEL SOLNS.

&&
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 25, 2011, 03:52:26 PM
Honestly sort of surprised they went with the PDS for that new watch box.

Strong and even locally severe storms? Yes. A major, widespread outbreak of long-track or strong tornadoes? Not seeing it.

Maybe they're seeing something I'm not. Obviously there's plenty of ground truth with confirmed tornadoes in east TX this afternoon, but with so much convection earlier today and so much rain already associated with the mass moving into AR, I just don't see how it's going to get amped up enough to warrant this.

BTW - fascinating footage on the Weather Channel right now with that tornado in TX. Amazing footage of aircraft following a twister over farmland.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 03:52:41 PM
The local mets here in Chattanooga are stating that they are very concerned about the severe threat around here for Wednesday. Very rarely do they ever talk like this about severe weather ahead of time.

Is the situation really shaping up to be that bad?

At this point there is potential....but that's all it is...potential.  
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 03:52:52 PM
The situation in Central AR is quickly becoming volatile with multiple discrete cells evolving. We must watch how things develop through the evening and spread east...storm mode transition will be key to maintaining a significant...strong tornado threat further East into the MEG area.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 03:54:20 PM
Thanks for the replies, did I mention I also work for an insurance agency?  LOL  This is not going to be a fun week for work!  ::drowning::

Keep up the great work!

Yeah...I don't think you will have an early weekend this week (if you got off for Good Friday last week that is lol)

Today's action will have no impact on what may occur Wednesday...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 03:54:21 PM
Nope, no EAS warnings. And from what I can tell, no Android app yet. I'm sure at some point, there will.

By the way, here's a good review video of it. http://youtu.be/HmpULHP-bjU

This is the same app correct

http://www.androidpit.com/en/android/market/apps/app/cynosurex.application.NationalWeatherService/National-Weather-Service (http://www.androidpit.com/en/android/market/apps/app/cynosurex.application.NationalWeatherService/National-Weather-Service)

This app gives you alerts correct? and Is there any app that plays EAS warnings besides weatherunderground with live NOAA Weather radio?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 03:57:08 PM
The cell south of Dallas is absolutely sick. Is that a debris cloud showing up on the radar?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 03:58:34 PM
The situation in Central AR is quickly becoming volatile with multiple discrete cells evolving. We must watch how things develop through the evening and spread east...storm mode transition will be key to maintaining a significant...strong tornado threat further East into the MEG area.

Not good when I hear your assessments moving in this direction as you tend to keep a very level and logical head on these things...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 04:01:25 PM
(http://img34.imageshack.us/img34/8520/wunidsmapz.gif)

Rotation moving very close to Fort Campbell...latest scan on WBKO's radar shows rotation just crossing TN/KY state line.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 04:03:03 PM
Ron Howe just said there was a report of a tornado in stewart county. It lined up perfectly with the couplet.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: elicoleman on April 25, 2011, 04:05:04 PM
This is the same app correct

http://www.androidpit.com/en/android/market/apps/app/cynosurex.application.NationalWeatherService/National-Weather-Service (http://www.androidpit.com/en/android/market/apps/app/cynosurex.application.NationalWeatherService/National-Weather-Service)

This app gives you alerts correct? and Is there any app that plays EAS warnings besides weatherunderground with live NOAA Weather radio?

Oh, I must've missed it because of the different name (Wx Alert USA for iPhone) but yeah, that's the same app I believe. I'd imagine it gives alerts as well. Also, the app has a weather radio section which is really cool. Basically turns your iPhone into a weather radio + NWS site.

Not sure about EAS Warnings though.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 04:07:18 PM
Ron Howe just said there was a report of a tornado in stewart county. It lined up perfectly with the couplet.

Not to dispell the "confirmation", but I was watching that storm intently as it encroached and proceeded through Stewart Co (family live there), and I saw no distinctive couplet on either SRV scans or BV scans.  Maybe it was so brief a couplet that it was between radar scans.   ::shrug::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: elicoleman on April 25, 2011, 04:09:04 PM
I'm starting to be concerned for the storms popping up and the timing as it approaches the river because of tonights game at the FedExForum, and whether anything would hit just before tip-off, during the game, or as people are coming out.

Hopefully we can be spared. I don't want to have to see 20,000+ in complete panic  ::doh::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 04:09:41 PM
Hello, Mr. Textbook Supercell....how are you today?

(http://i53.tinypic.com/260so3l.png)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 04:12:15 PM
Not to dispell the "confirmation", but I was watching that storm intently as it encroached and proceeded through Stewart Co (family live there), and I saw no distinctive couplet on either SRV scans or BV scans.  Maybe it was so brief a couplet that it was between radar scans.   ::shrug::

What radar site have you been looking at. Paducah's radar has had a clear couplet for a while. Granted it's higher up but....
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 04:14:23 PM
What radar site have you been looking at. Paducah's radar has had a clear couplet for a while. Granted it's higher up but....

I'm watching the storm in Todd and Christian counties in KY from KOHX and a TVS marker has just popped up

Also KHPX(Ft. Campbell) is the closest current radar site to that storm
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Dave R on April 25, 2011, 04:15:16 PM
New flood watch for the Harpeth in Bellevue.  NWS has us cresting at 20.6 feet, the 2nd highest in 27 years.  Last year it crested at 33.2 feet.  At 14 feet the soccer fields and Newsom Station Road start going under water....
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 04:15:16 PM
WBKO's radar picking up a TVS marker on this cell across southern Christian County now...

(http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/8735/wunidsmapm.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 04:17:22 PM
What radar site have you been looking at. Paducah's radar has had a clear couplet for a while. Granted it's higher up but....

As the storm was approaching the southern ends of Stewart Co, I WAS watching PAHs radar but switched to a much closer HPX radar.  There might've been a brief couplet, but it wasn't showing up very well on HPX's radar....that's why I stated that I did not want to dispell the confirmation because I personally did not see a couplet that would've spawned a TOR.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 04:18:04 PM
Looks like it's tightening up to me. I'd be taking shelter if I lived in pembrooke ky
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 25, 2011, 04:18:21 PM
just WOW at some of the surface obs ..

Memphis METARS reporting Td's of 79/68, and West Memphis reporting 77/70. 

Juicy much?
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 04:18:47 PM
New flood watch for the Harpeth in Bellevue.  NWS has us cresting at 20.6 feet, the 2nd highest in 27 years.  Last year it crested at 33.2 feet.  At 14 feet the soccer fields and Newsom Station Road start going under water....

... :(
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 04:19:29 PM
Photo from big rock TN certainly looks like a funnel cloud. Was on channel 5
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2011, 04:19:50 PM
Looks like it's tightening up to me. I'd be taking shelter if I lived in pembrooke ky

Agreed.....
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 04:21:03 PM
I'm starting to be concerned for the storms popping up and the timing as it approaches the river because of tonights game at the FedExForum, and whether anything would hit just before tip-off, during the game, or as people are coming out.

Hopefully we can be spared. I don't want to have to see 20,000+ in complete panic  ::doh::

I am sort of concerned about this.  The Grizzlies are a potentially great story for the community and it would mean a lot if we could get through and win this game in a great atmosphere inside even while the atmosphere outside seems to be juicing up.  It'd be great if we could get this one in without a hitch both for the safety of the fans inside but also for what it means for the community as a whole.  
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 04:27:20 PM
Rotating wall cloud in Pembroke, KY...need to watch this storm as it moves into Todd County.

(http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/8735/wunidsmapm.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 25, 2011, 04:33:56 PM
Looks like I will have to start letting some folks know to pay attention to the water. A lot of folks are going to be scared around here, since they are going to see the river rapidly raise.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 04:36:28 PM
Cell is beginning to weaken from my point of view...but WBKO radar still showing some decent rotation, last report was of a rotating wall cloud in Pembroke.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2011, 04:39:16 PM
Looks like I will have to start letting some folks know to pay attention to the water. A lot of folks are going to be scared around here, since they are going to see the river rapidly raise.

I have a grandmother who lives in River Plantation.  She was affected last year, as was I.  

But, I moved out of that area.  She's still there.  I'm debating whether to even tell her since I know it would only alarm her.  It would literally take a repeat for her to be flooded again, since she was barely in last year's flood ("only" getting 8 inches of water in her condo in contrast to the 6 feet of water I had in my house).

Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 04:39:59 PM
New MCD:

(http://i53.tinypic.com/315on44.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0575
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0434 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MS...ERN AR...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN
   IL...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA...EXTREME WRN KY.
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
  
   VALID 252134Z - 252230Z
  
   ANOTHER WW IS LIKELY ACROSS MS VALLEY REGION E AND NE OF WW 205.
  
   SVR TSTMS OVER NERN PORTIONS AR IN WW 205 MAY BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
   MOVE NEWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION.  MAIN
   UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES NRN EXTENT OF FAVORABLE/SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
   INFLOW...GIVEN ROBUST STRENGTH OF COLD POOL OVER MO OZARKS AND
   LIMITED TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION TO ITS E.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
   SRN EDGE OF THAT COLD POOL FROM NEAR FLP NEWD ACROSS CARTER COUNTY
   MO THEN NWD TOWARD SWRN FRINGES STL AREA...E OF WHICH 3-4 MB/2-HOUR
   FALLS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR REGION.  THIS TENDENCY IS
   CONSISTENT WITH SFC LOW SHIFT/DEVELOPMENT NEWD INTO REGION...WHILE
   RELATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN BACKED NEAR-SFC WINDS AND
   ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUITABLE ALSO...WITH
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 45-55 KT.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...N OF
   WHICH HODOGRAPHS ARE FURTHER ENLARGED...WAS ANALYZED FROM WRN KY MCS
   SWWD ACROSS MEM AREA THEN NWWD OVER NERN AR.  HOWEVER...SFC DIABATIC
   HEATING IS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS TO ITS N SUCH THAT 500-1500 MLCAPE
   MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY BEFORE SUNSET.
   WAA WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY IN PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT.
  
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2011
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 04:44:26 PM
This cell is beginning to move into a less favorable environment...LCL heights of 1000-1250, and low-level shear of 25-30 kts, where as it was in a 40 kt range across NW Middle TN/far SW south-central KY.

Not to foget, but lightning count has also decreased quite a bit. Right around 375 strikes, where as when it was near the state line...it was over 650.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 04:49:29 PM
Arkansas is getting slammed. Numerous TORs and FFWs. No confirmed tornado damage other than trees down; hopefully that trend continues.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 04:49:49 PM
New tornado watch out for parts of western TN and Western KY
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 04:50:23 PM
New tornado watch out for parts of western TN and Western KY

Yep...rolling out as we speak. 
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 04:51:44 PM
I think the squall line taking shape over OK/AR border area will eventually overtake the discrete cells in AR...making our eventual QLCS threat as advertised. Could still be a few tornadoes...but I think the strong/significant threat will mostly end before it gets this far East.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 04:52:53 PM
I'm also impressed that there has been numerous TORs across N AR, which has essentially had rain for hours on end. Some of them have had decent rotation and I wouldn't be surprised if Sharp County has had some touchdowns.
Quote
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY...

AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ELEVEN POINT...OR 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF POCAHONTAS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH. A SECOND THUNDERSTORM WITH A DEVELOPING TORNADO IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELEVEN POINT MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RAVENDEN
SPRINGS...DALTON...ELM STORE...ELEVEN POINT...WARM
SPRINGS...BRAKEBILL AND HAMIL.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 04:53:21 PM
PDS watch, at that....
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 04:54:00 PM
PDS watch, at that....

Its a Hales watch though...automatically decreases its credibility.  :D
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2011, 04:54:52 PM
Its a Hales watch though...automatically decreases its credibility.  :D
[/quotethought it wa thompson
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 04:55:07 PM
I Still feel pretty strongly the discrete threat will be waning by the time this is in the Metro...its still going to be hours. I honestly don't know if it will even be at the River by Midnight when this watch expires...

Its a Hales watch though...automatically decreases its credibility.  :D
thought it wa thompson

No...it was Hales...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 04:56:32 PM
I really wonder what the administration at FedExforum will do at this being a PDS watch
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 04:56:52 PM
Its a Hales watch though...automatically decreases its credibility.  :D

Should I go find a mobile home to spend the evening in?   ;)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 04:57:09 PM
So let me get this straight. The tornado probs. are higher on this current watch (90/70) which barely includes any of the 15% tornado hatched probs. issued by the exact same guys. Yet the watch that includes the majority of the 15% tornado hatched risk, has 90/60 probs. ::shrug::
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 04:57:19 PM
I think the squall line taking shape over OK/AR border area will eventually overtake the discrete cells in AR...making our eventual QLCS threat as advertised. Could still be a few tornadoes...but I think the strong/significant threat will mostly end before it gets this far East.

I'm seeing a circulation in sw Arkansas that looks like it's moving hard north east. I think spc is thinking super cells could pop around the southern end of that energy, no?

Kinda like the mess that came through this morning, the mesos seem to be making a hard northerly turn. Mid tenn was capped, but otherwise that meso could have fired up some discrete cells in tennessee
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 04:57:22 PM
I really wonder what the administration at FedExforum will do at this being a PDS watch

Probably nothing...not sure if there's reason to at this point...threat is many hours away...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2011, 04:57:53 PM
I Still feel pretty strongly the discrete threat will be waning by the time this is in the Metro...its still going to be hours. I honestly don't know if it will even be at the River by Midnight when this watch expires...
thought it wa thompson


No...it was Hales...
hales is a good forecaster.
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 04:58:04 PM
So let me get this straight. The tornado probs. are higher on this current watch (90/70) which barely includes any of the 15% tornado hatched probs. issued by the exact same guys. Yet the watch that includes the majority of the 15% tornado hatched risk, has 90/60 probs. ::shrug::

Hales Watch ;)

The first was not issued by Hales...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 04:58:47 PM
I guess Monroe and Arkansas counties have a shield around them. Almost surrounded by PDS watches, hah...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 04:58:51 PM
hales is a good forecaster.

LOL...I don't know how good he is...but he throws out PDS all the time...so it makes it mean much less to me when puts one out...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 05:00:02 PM
Hales Watch ;)

The first was not issued by Hales...

Ah, gotcha. Just seems odd, and kind of funny, that they seem to be contradicting their own outlook map...I would have put this watch 80/50 in all honesty. I do not see the High risk in this area having a strong tornado occur. I would think the Arklatex region has a much better chance to see that verify...
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 25, 2011, 05:00:13 PM
I really wonder what the administration at FedExforum will do at this being a PDS watch

It's Memphis and the FedEx Forum....they probably don't even know it rained this morning.

(I'm from Memphis - I can say that.  ;D )
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 05:01:11 PM
I really wonder what the administration at FedExforum will do at this being a PDS watch

It's still just a watch.  Arenas have been hit by tornadoes before and I would imagine the FedEx Forum is safer than most if I had to ride out a TOR.  It's merely that it presents a big target in terms of the number of people.  I would go ahead and play the game but have several staff keeping a constant check on the weather with a "red phone" to the NWS.  I would go over my tornado plans with staff and probably make an announcement or two before the game about what would happen if there was a threat from a tornado.  Other than that, I would certainly go on with the game.  The odds of getting hit are still very slim even in a PDS watch.  
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 05:06:54 PM
***ATTENTION***
SWM NOW IN EFFECT

Due to the severe weather and flooding event beginning to unfold across the region...the TNWX Staff has implemented its Significant Weather Mode (SWM) effective immediately. The SWM is in effect until further notice...

To those that are new to us...I urge you to read the rules and regulations that constitute SWM.  Those can be found here...

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2376.0.html

Please also remember our new warning posting procedure. You MUST follow this new format during SWM...details can be found here...

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2377.msg126411.html#msg126411
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 05:08:20 PM
CAPE....it looks to me like this is supposed to markedly increase over the watch area over the next few hours per the RUC.  On the other hand, there's a lot of junk mixed in over in Arkansas right now and a loss of daytime insolation...so IDK.  
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 05:14:32 PM
HRRR has this lining out quickly and reaching the River about 11 PM...I tend to agree with this...
(http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/t5/2011042519/1ref_t5sfc_f09.png)
Title: Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 05:17:16 PM
CAPE....it looks to me like this is supposed to markedly increase over the watch area over the next few hours per the RUC.  On the other hand, there's a lot of junk mixed in over in Arkansas right now and a loss of daytime insolation...so IDK.  

The RUC seems to increase CAPE values across this region, yet moves the precip. in AR in...before it dies out and the QLCS moves in. I am skeptical if CAPE values will increase for the next few hours, just like winter weather...the radar doesn't lie. (Well, most of the time it doesn't ;) )
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2011, 05:35:37 PM
HRRR has this lining out quickly and reaching the River about 11 PM...I tend to agree with this...
(http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/t5/2011042519/1ref_t5sfc_f09.png)

My bet is we see quite a few tornado warnings from the line itself(notches along the line), with few reports of touchdowns. Nevertheless, it will be a long night with many sirens firing up and weather radios driving some batty.

On another note, the Wed am tornado threat for the immediate Memphis area looks to be increasing somewhat as a triple point may be nearby (as mentioned in MEGs AFD). Latest SREF confirms a threat increase in the morning hours, followed by more torrential rainfall for a few more hours after.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 05:39:24 PM
Interesting to note the cells approaching Little Rock have been making sharp north turns as they get close to the city and taking a direction like the ones in NE AR (they were previously moving E-NE). Must be some sort of boundary draping this area.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 05:43:23 PM
Interesting to note the cells approaching Little Rock have been making sharp north turns as they get close to the city and taking a direction like the ones in NE AR (they were previously moving E-NE). Must be some sort of boundary draping this area.

The MCD for the new PDS watch over MEG showed a boundary right around there, with another boundary that starts perpendicular to it that moves in a southward curve to the east going right through Memphis:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0575.html
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Milodog2 on April 25, 2011, 06:05:18 PM
just had a bad storm north knox, can I up load some video i know were in SWM?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 06:08:12 PM
The discrete cells SW of Little Rock will soon be absorbed by rapidly approaching line segment coming in the from the west. That should begin full evolution into QLCS for the evening.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 06:18:17 PM
My bet is we see quite a few tornado warnings from the line itself(notches along the line), with few reports of touchdowns. Nevertheless, it will be a long night with many sirens firing up and weather radios driving some batty.



I'm in this camp...can't see a really high risk situation developing as long as this does go into QLCS mode. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 06:20:10 PM
FYI...posting in this thread...

Quote
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL YELL...
SOUTHWESTERN PERRY...NORTHWESTERN SALINE...GARLAND...EAST CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY AND WEST CENTRAL HOT SPRING COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

AT 616 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A TORNADO.  THIS POTENTIALLY
DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE CORONADO...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
  PINEY...              ROCKWELL...           LAKE OUACHITA...
  LAKE HAMILTON...      HOT SPRINGS...        NIMROD LAKE...
  MOUNTAIN PINE...      MEYERS...             LOFTON...
  LENA LNDG REC AREA... LAKE WINONA...        LAKE OUACHITA SP...
  LAKE LAGO...          LAKE CORONADO...      LAKE BALBOA...
  JESSIEVILLE...        HOT SPGS VILLAGE... 
  HOT SPRINGS NATL PARK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A VIOLENT TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. THIS IS AN
EXCEPTIONALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING A LIFE
THREATENING...CONFIRMED TORNADO CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT DESTRUCTION!
TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 06:24:42 PM
Fortunately these supercells won't last much longer...we're about to see a rapid QLCS evolution within the hour. Again...can't see our PDS watch verifying at this point...and still looks 11PM to Midnight before it even gets to the MS River...though if a strong cold pool develops this may accelerate eastward...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 06:25:48 PM
Here is video of the Tornado near Hot Springs AR

http://arkansasmatters.com/news-fulltext/?nxd_id=416367 (http://arkansasmatters.com/news-fulltext/?nxd_id=416367)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 06:28:07 PM
Not looking good for Perry County, AR atm.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Drew_ on April 25, 2011, 06:28:28 PM
Here is SRV from the hot springs storm.(http://i51.tinypic.com/2ibl08w.png)

QLCS sounds good to me.  ::hot::


Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 06:32:56 PM
I think it's safe to say there are likely two tornadoes on the ground right now.

One in Saline County and the other in Perry.


ALSO, a late report of possible tornado damage is coming out of Crockett County. Maybe one of MEG's TORs today actually verified! ;)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: ajatwister on April 25, 2011, 06:38:03 PM
Will we in middle TN have to worry about this watch being moved east? Or will it eventually form a line
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 06:45:58 PM
Severe Weather coverage KTHV2

http://www.todaysthv.com/news/article/154770/238/Watch-LIVE-severe-weather-coverage-right-now-on-THV2 (http://www.todaysthv.com/news/article/154770/238/Watch-LIVE-severe-weather-coverage-right-now-on-THV2)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 06:52:44 PM
New tornado warning until 730 PM

Conway/Little Rock AFB

I've been out to Conway before, its a good town, hopefully everyone is okay out there
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 06:54:58 PM
Seems like I-40 South is going to be the main intensity of developing QLCS...North of I-40 system is much much less organized...mostly just heavy rain...perhaps a few embedded areas of wind...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 06:57:14 PM
Discrete cells are beginning to occlude out as they slowly congeal among themselves...before eventual absorption of the line by 8 PM. Starting to transition towards a spin-up tornado threat...but mostly damaging winds...and away from stronger tornado potential.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 06:57:40 PM
Downtown Little Rock now under a tornado warning until 7:45
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Adam on April 25, 2011, 06:58:49 PM
So when is Middle Tennessee's main threat Wedsday. ::shrug::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 06:59:04 PM
Storm moving into Little Rock could also carry a significant hail threat...perhaps golfball or larger. Probably also has the best chance to still spin up something before absorption as it remains furthest south. Little Rock needs to be taking cover.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Tornado 73 on April 25, 2011, 06:59:41 PM
Tornado warnings now crossing north of I40 moving NE.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:00:28 PM
Oh dear...rapid circulation development on the Middle cell now...strong tornado likely in progress there...not the LR cell...this is North. Very serious situation!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:03:13 PM
Violent tornado likely in progress...extremely serious situation...debris detected!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:04:59 PM
Strongest velocity couplet I've seen all year...about to cross I-40...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:06:01 PM
(http://i54.tinypic.com/29mlgmx.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 07:06:40 PM
You aren't joking. That looks worse thn the f4 that hit St louis
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:08:14 PM
Good god...just crossed I-40...this is enormously serious...

(http://i51.tinypic.com/126ftow.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:08:46 PM
200mph of shear! Extreme couplet...potential EF4 to EF5 strength...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 25, 2011, 07:10:38 PM
200mph of shear! Extreme couplet...potential EF4 to EF5 strength...

This is the strongest I have seen in our immediate area.  Holy cow.  Anyone near heber needs to take cover if this thing holds together.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:10:41 PM
Debris signature is right on top of I-40...I'm afraid people are dying at this very moment...I hope I'm wrong...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Math/Met on April 25, 2011, 07:11:38 PM
WOW. That is likely a very serious tornado. Does anyone know the population in that area?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:12:11 PM
OH MY GOD...this is horrifying...MASSIVE debris signature...

(http://i52.tinypic.com/u3h5c.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: StormNine on April 25, 2011, 07:12:55 PM
So when is Middle Tennessee's main threat Wedsday. ::shrug::

Tuesday Night and Wednesday are the main threats.  Western Mid TN especially could see some severe tonight and during the day Tuesday.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 07:14:01 PM
There are two TVS markers one above conway and one below...what a storm
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 25, 2011, 07:14:57 PM
OH MY GOD...this is horrifying...MASSIVE debris signature...

(http://i52.tinypic.com/u3h5c.png)

That is horrifying.  Any chasers on that I wonder?  Jesus Christ, that debris signature gave me chills.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: StormNine on April 25, 2011, 07:15:14 PM
The rotation is so strong it almost looks hurricane like.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:16:59 PM
Update...large debris ball remains...
(http://i56.tinypic.com/zvc5j7.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 07:17:42 PM
Quote
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHITE...
FAULKNER...NORTHEASTERN PERRY...NORTHWESTERN LONOKE...NORTHERN
PULASKI AND NORTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

...TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR QUAIL VALLEY HEADING TOWARD VILONIA...

AT 711 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
MAYFLOWER...OR 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CONWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
  LAKE MAUMELLE...      LAKE CONWAY...        CONWAY...
  CABOT...              WARD...               VILONIA...
  TOAD SUCK...          SPRINGHILL...         ROLAND...
  PINNACLE MTN...       PICKLES GAP...        OLMSTEAD...
  OLD AUSTIN...         MT VERNON...          MORGAN...              
  MAYFLOWER...          MAUMELLE...           MARCHE...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 25, 2011, 07:18:18 PM
Captain obvious here, but for what its worth on that cell:

Quote
...TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR QUAIL VALLEY HEADING TOWARD VILONIA..
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: StormStalker on April 25, 2011, 07:18:36 PM
Wow....... I have a feeling there are going to be some deaths with this storm :(
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: angrypug on April 25, 2011, 07:19:34 PM
http://www.todaysthv.com/news/article/154770/238/Watch-LIVE-severe-weather-coverage-right-now-on-THV2

Live news broadcast...they have pretty good coverage currently.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: DocB on April 25, 2011, 07:19:43 PM
That is horrifying.  Any chasers on that I wonder?  Jesus Christ, that debris signature gave me chills.
According to http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen it looks like most chasers are too far south but hauling north now.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 25, 2011, 07:20:07 PM
Would that most likely be a wedge type tornado with such a powerful signature?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 07:20:36 PM
I think the areas north and west are less populated, right. Unbelievable storm.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:20:57 PM
What an incredible radar presentation...ranking among the most impressive I've seen...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Matthew on April 25, 2011, 07:21:06 PM
LR streaming tornado coming into town. ::wow::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:21:41 PM
Next Scan...
(http://i56.tinypic.com/zvc5j7.jpg)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Matthew on April 25, 2011, 07:22:53 PM
Is that transformers blowing?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:23:03 PM
Would that most likely be a wedge type tornado with such a powerful signature?

Could be...but not necessarily. Hard to tell from radar alone. Its strong...undoubtedly...I just hope we haven't just lost multiple lives as I fear we have...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Matthew on April 25, 2011, 07:23:45 PM
Oh my.  Transfers blowing! ::wow::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 07:24:56 PM
I'm trying to figure out how populated that area is... I've been through that area several times going up to Fayetteville and Heifer Ranch, but I can't remember.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:25:23 PM
Quote
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR VILONIA...

AT 720 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE.  THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF VILONIA...OR 7 MILES EAST OF LAKE CONWAY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

KATV is reporting this is a Wedge Tornado...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 25, 2011, 07:25:40 PM
Could be...but not necessarily. Hard to tell from radar alone. Its strong...undoubtedly...I just hope we haven't just lost multiple lives as I fear we have...

Yeah me too....Thanks for the radar images Kev
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Matthew on April 25, 2011, 07:26:06 PM
Did you see them turn the screen to a day shot showing the tornado?   Amazing.  I did not know they could do that?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 25, 2011, 07:27:11 PM
I'm trying to figure out how populated that area is... I've been through that area several times going up to Fayetteville and Heifer Ranch, but I can't remember.

It's fairly sparse, but by no means like the middle of Kansas.  I certainly fear for lives the way that couplet looked.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:27:14 PM
MEG is taking over for LZK effective immediately.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:28:15 PM
Update for Vilonia...
(http://i56.tinypic.com/1z68cqd.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: stephens on April 25, 2011, 07:28:19 PM
I know it is SWm right now but I sure do pray for those people right now. Dear Lord please help them and keep them safe. I worry about this for us in Mid Tn tomorrow and Wed. Be safe all and Godspeed.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 25, 2011, 07:29:01 PM
Amazing signatures there! I was following this thing on radar before it even developed. Reed is hauling trying to catch up with.

Good news it the debris ball is starting to diminish a bit.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 07:30:39 PM
KLZK office under the gun...taking over.... KMEG taking over
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: tnwxdot on April 25, 2011, 07:30:44 PM
KATV channel 7 out of Little Rock AR has reported that the Little Rock Weather Service office is now in their bunker and operations for that vicinity are being monitored from Memphis.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:31:35 PM
Update...appears it moved near/just NW of Vilonia...

(http://i56.tinypic.com/2qu4z8g.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:32:34 PM
KTHV has wall cloud on LR storm but not on the ground...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 07:34:08 PM
From thewxmann at AmWx:

Quote
Regarding the sudden uptick in AR tornadic activity just now, I just remembered that the boundary laid behind by this morning's MCS stalled out across this area. This is probably what is responsible for what is happening now.

Another interesting factoid: I was wondering why most of the storms have only produced funnel clouds up to now. Well, apparently the LCL's have risen dramatically due to the mixing out of low-lvl moisture - dewpoints are in around 60 down in nrn LA. The models were hinting at this but I think many, including myself, overlooked it.

What does this mean further east?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 25, 2011, 07:34:55 PM
From most of my sources, they're confirming that it was indeed a wedge. Wouldn't doubt it.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:35:32 PM
Debris signature has increased coming out of Vilonia...still likely a strong or violent tornado...

(http://i51.tinypic.com/1zbvyi8.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 07:36:12 PM
From tornadotony at AmWx:

Quote
I think the tornado threat will likely only increase after dark as LCLs lower. Even if we end up getting congealing, the amount of shear should support QLCS tornadoes.

And that storm near Little Rock is filthy.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2011, 07:36:23 PM
Debris signature has increased coming out of Vilonia...still likely a strong or violent tornado...

(http://i51.tinypic.com/1zbvyi8.png)
::wow::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:37:07 PM
Clearly if this doesn't start evolving out of discrete mode soon the MEG threat will be going up rapidly...still have another 60-90 minutes to monitor for that...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Matthew on April 25, 2011, 07:37:12 PM
Debris signature has increased coming out of Vilonia...still likely a strong or violent tornado...

(http://i51.tinypic.com/1zbvyi8.png)

Oh my.  That tornado is trying to make history I am afraid.  
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:37:49 PM
LZK is coming back online...

Reporting they are witnessing developin tornado over their office...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 07:38:50 PM
Quote
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WHITE...SOUTHERN FAULKNER...NORTHWESTERN LONOKE AND
NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES...

AT 737 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK STAFF REPORTED
A FUNNEL CLOUD DEVELOPING INTO A TORNADO. THIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
NORTH LITTLE ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AUSTIN...
CABOT...CAMMACK VILLAGE...GIBSON...GRAVEL RIDGE...JACKSONVILLE...
MAUMELLE...NORTH LITTLE ROCK...SHERWOOD AND WARD.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 25, 2011, 07:39:23 PM
Watching Little Rock situation live http://www.todaysthv.com/news/article/154770/238/Watch-LIVE-severe-weather-coverage-right-now-on-THV2 (http://www.todaysthv.com/news/article/154770/238/Watch-LIVE-severe-weather-coverage-right-now-on-THV2)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 25, 2011, 07:40:38 PM
The debris ball isn't as defined, but still strong rotation.

(http://i52.tinypic.com/156aiyx.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 25, 2011, 07:40:44 PM
Clearly if this doesn't start evolving out of discrete mode soon the MEG threat will be going up rapidly...still have another 60-90 minutes to monitor for that...

the bow echo looks like it is going to overtake it, but that may cause problems on its own.  That sucker is scream ENE.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 07:42:48 PM
LZK is coming back online...

Reporting they are witnessing developin tornado over their office...

Geez. The immediate vicinity surrounding their office was hit in April 2008...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: StormNine on April 25, 2011, 07:43:05 PM
Looks like a QLCS event.  Remember to still keep NOAA's in handy remember damaging winds can cause deaths overnight to.  A tornado threat will probably still exist in the areas of greater rotation in the bow echos as it moves towards the MEG area.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:43:11 PM
Quote
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ROMANCE...

AT 738 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE.  THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MT VERNON...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF CABOT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Tornado 73 on April 25, 2011, 07:43:33 PM
SPC mcs discussion says it should take another hour or two for line to catch up to supercells.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 25, 2011, 07:45:18 PM
Holy crap you can hear the wind on air on the THV stream.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:45:32 PM
SPC mcs discussion says it should take another hour or two for line to catch up to supercells.
That should be enough for the MEG area to escape this strong/violent threat. What a massive stroke of luck if this happens...we'll have to see....
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 25, 2011, 07:46:13 PM
Holy crap you can hear the wind on air on the THV stream.

I def. heard that!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:48:34 PM
Quote
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
  NORTH CENTRAL WHITE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 743 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
  RADAR WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO.  THIS
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF MT VERNON...OR 17 MILES NORTH
  OF CABOT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS VIOLENT TORNADO INCLUDE...
  STEPROCK...           PANGBURN...           WILBURN...
  SUNNYDALE...          SIDON...              LETONA...
  HICKORY FLAT...       DEWEY...              CLAY...
  ALBION...             WEST PANGBURN...      WELLS BOTTOM...
  SNELL...              RAMSEY LANDING...     RAINBOW ISLAND...
  MT PISGAH...          MCJESTER...           MAGNESS LAKE...

A CHURCH WAS DESTROYED BY THIS TORNADO AND OTHER STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
HAS BEEN REPORTED IN VILONIA.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:50:36 PM
The cell coming out of the Little Rock radar site is rapidly organizing...will likely produce any moment if not already...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:52:31 PM
The Vilonia cell may be in first stages of occlusion...need to wait another scan or two...the LR cell while producing will be absorbed sooner than the Northern one...so it may be a short-term threat...

Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 07:53:03 PM
That should be enough for the MEG area to escape this strong/violent threat. What a massive stroke of luck if this happens...we'll have to see....

Here is the part of the MCD relevant to MEG:

Quote
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE ANALYZED OVER SERN AR...MAINTAINING BACKED
   SFC WINDS WITH 300-500 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH.  AS LLJ STRENGTHENS
   DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD ENLARGE FURTHER
   ACROSS SRN AR...NRN LA EWD TOWARD NWRN MS AND WRN TN. RELATED WAA
   AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY DISPERSE RELATIVE DRY POCKETS NOW
   ANALYZED AT SFC OVER PORTIONS NRN LA AND WRN MS...LEADING TO MORE
   UNIFORM FIELD OF MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500 J/KG OVER ERN AR TO 2000
   J/KG IN NRN LA...AMIDST 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

Even if a QLCS forms, I still would not dismiss the tornado threat.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:53:20 PM
Vilonia police reporting 1/2 mile wide damage path in their city...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 07:53:39 PM
An unconfirmed tornado near Jacksonville,AR
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:54:35 PM
Here is the part of the MCD relevant to MEG:

Even if a QLCS forms, I still would not dismiss the tornado threat.

Oh...I agree...but a QLCS is not going to produce potential EF4+ monsters...we're back to brief spin-ups within a damaging straight line threat...I'd certainly rather have the latter.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:55:23 PM
Reports of injuries at a church that was hit in Pulaski County...this is separate from earlier reports of a church destroyed in Vilonia...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:57:29 PM
Scanner reports (NOTE: Often unreliable) indicate there's not much left in Vilonia...very sobering tone from dispatchers...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 25, 2011, 07:58:17 PM
The cell out of Little rock definitely rapping up!

(http://i52.tinypic.com/miniac.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 07:59:53 PM
LR storm now being absorbed...circulation notably weaker now (still present).

So far...no circulations in the QLCS...its also a pretty thin line...not sure how that effects the wind/tornado threat...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 08:03:02 PM
Just east of Rose Bud,AR there are two tvs markers very near each other
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 25, 2011, 08:04:48 PM
Just east of Rose Bud,AR there are two tvs markers very near each other

I was looking at that. The rotation doesn't look all that impressive, though.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 08:04:54 PM
Vilonia police reporting 1/2 mile wide damage path in their city...

That corridor just to the NW of Little Rock is a tornado magnet... with frequent fatalities.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 08:05:21 PM
First QLCS circulation popping up near England, AR. Weak so far but increasing...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 08:05:53 PM
Why is KLZK radar on NWS website not working?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 08:08:54 PM
Reports that pavement was scoured in Vilonia...numerous homes destroyed...extensive damage also now in Romance reported...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 08:09:28 PM
Why is KLZK radar on NWS website not working?

I'm not sure. They haven't issued a Radar Status Message since April 23.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 08:09:50 PM
Quote
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHITE...EAST
CENTRAL FAULKNER...NORTHWESTERN LONOKE AND NORTHEASTERN PULASKI
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 801 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO.  THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF CABOT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
  LITTLE ROCK AFB...    CABOT...              WARD...
  SYLVANIA...           OLD AUSTIN...         GREYSTONE...
  AUSTIN...             EL PASO...            ZION HILL...
  WARSAW...             TONEYVILLE...         OPAL...
  MOUNTAIN SPRINGS...   INDIAN HEAD LAKE...   COOPER LAKE...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 08:10:26 PM
NWS radar servers are being overloaded right now...Level II data is down as well...GR3 (Level III data) is updating however...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 08:11:32 PM
NWS radar servers are being overloaded right now...Level II data is down as well...GR3 (Level III data) is updating however...

gr3 radar is still working fine for me as well
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 08:16:06 PM
TWC says storms should reach Memphis by 10:31 PM

Quote
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLEBURNE AND
NORTH CENTRAL WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 810 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
PANGBURN...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF SEARCY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
  STEPROCK...           PANGBURN...           SUNNYDALE...
  LETONA...             HICKORY FLAT...       DEWEY...
  CLAY...               WEST PANGBURN...      WELLS BOTTOM...
  RAMSEY LANDING...     RAINBOW ISLAND...     MCJESTER...
  LITTLE RED...         HIRAM...              BARE STONE...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 25, 2011, 08:24:04 PM
10:31? How exact.

And yeah, looks like MEG will definitely be dealing with a QLCS mode.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 08:28:21 PM
Classic bookend vortex going now just SW of Searcy...this is a well developed bow echo...this one has serious wind/tornado potential if this holds together as it moves east... different animal potentially from every other system this year...hopefully we'll get some weakening as it comes East.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2011, 08:28:50 PM
This looks very June 09'ish...lots of spin ups in the front line with low end tornadoes possible. Easy to see some EF1 and low end EF 2's in situations like this. Wind damage would be the main threat to me. Memphis really may bear quite the brunt of this in 90 minutes.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 25, 2011, 08:29:30 PM
Hey everyone, have not been on lately, as I have been super busy. Hope everyone stays well during this event. I will try and be around as much as possible. I will report on Flooding conditions in SW Davidson County as well as Williamson County.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 08:34:26 PM
The cores aloft are starting to collapse some and we're losing the circulation on the southern end...it may be trying to weaken some...we'll have to see...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mrmike987 on April 25, 2011, 08:34:49 PM
(http://i53.tinypic.com/24l1xxu.jpg)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 25, 2011, 08:34:54 PM
So what's the threat looking like for Memphis? Do you guys have a decent tornado threat? TWC seems to be concerned about the Grizzlies game going on lol. Regardless, I've got some friends in Memphis that don't pay particular attention to the weather and would like to give them the heads up ahead of time...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 25, 2011, 08:36:48 PM
Alright guys, this thing is gaining speed. Alright MEG/West Tn might be looking at about 30-45 minutes. This thing is moving at about 67ish.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Tornado 73 on April 25, 2011, 08:37:37 PM
Confirmed tornado in McRae, Ar.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 08:38:23 PM
Alright guys, this thing is gaining speed. Alright MEG/West Tn might be looking at about 30-45 minutes. This thing is moving at about 67ish.

Its not going to be near that soon. Maybe by 10 PM...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 08:38:55 PM
Isn't there a boundary that goes right through Memphis?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 08:43:53 PM
Its not going to be near that soon. Maybe by 10 PM...

TWC keeps saying it'll hit Memphis in less than an hour.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 08:49:03 PM
Starting to look as if the worst part of the bow may lift NW of Memphis...like earlier these storms are taking more northerly turns as they progress east...not as concerned about tornadoes in this as I was previously...that should stay up with the bookend vortex which is headed toward JBR...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 08:56:34 PM
Looks like we're down to just TORs on the bookend...good to see...of course I'm sure MEG will be flying them out soon enough for every little kink...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 08:58:21 PM
TWC keeps saying it'll hit Memphis in less than an hour.

They aren't accounting for the turn ne and then nne

Exact same thing happened with the line that went through Memphis this am. It rocketed towards nw middle TN after moving east ne through Arkansas and mem
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2011, 09:02:02 PM
I think this will cross the MS before 10pm from the looks at the bow racing through Woodruff/Cross Co
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 25, 2011, 09:07:25 PM
What are thoughts on 0z nam. Looks to me like mid tenn could be under the gun tomorrow pm
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 25, 2011, 09:10:20 PM
I think this will cross the MS before 10pm from the looks at the bow racing through Woodruff/Cross Co

WREG 3 says it reaches Marion AR at 9:51p. so MS River would be only moments later.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 25, 2011, 09:11:24 PM
Possible embedded supercells forming SW of MEG?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:11:32 PM
The best bowing should still pass NW of the Metro...

Still should result in a 60-70mph wind threat for the city though. Orientation of the line S of the bow is concerning for eventual training even if the line continues to weaken...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: hurricaneguy on April 25, 2011, 09:13:01 PM
Lot of widespread tree/limb damage at the UT campus. Several cars destroyed and some injuries. Crazy stuff!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 25, 2011, 09:16:49 PM
From an earlier OHX AFD (3:43pm CST)

Quote
EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSH INTO WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
SUNSET TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK...INCLUDING TORNADOES...STILL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
, AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN
ARKANSAS INTO EAST-CENTRAL INDIANA BY 0OZ, THU. SPC HAS PLACED
MUCH OF THE MID STATE UNDER A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 09:18:20 PM
Lot of widespread tree/limb damage at the UT campus. Several cars destroyed and some injuries. Crazy stuff!

UT? Really?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Matt on April 25, 2011, 09:20:46 PM
Which UT campus? knoxville?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Matt on April 25, 2011, 09:22:59 PM
Friend just texted me saying that quite a bit of damage occured around the campus area of UT...didn't even know they had severe storms that way...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 09:24:28 PM
Grizzlies game is very close to being over at FedEx.  I'm hoping that get it finished here and maybe they'll make an announcement before everyone leaves....though, it's kind of a major downer considering the extremely celebratory mood going on there right now. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: dwagner88 on April 25, 2011, 09:25:48 PM
Lot of widespread tree/limb damage at the UT campus. Several cars destroyed and some injuries. Crazy stuff!

What's weird is that these storms are totally unrelated to the system out west. These were more of a summertime popup variety. They rode up the foothills of the mountains just to the east of here pretty much all afternoon.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Milodog2 on April 25, 2011, 09:28:59 PM
Yes, a single storm came through Knoxville about 6:30, wide spread wind damage across the county. Ham radio reports damaged buildings at UT hospital. At my house in Hall's had 50-60 mph winds, 1" hail and you can smell pine in the air. Pretty wild ride for about 15 min with lots of intense lightning.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 09:29:53 PM
That tor warned storm near Harrisburg,AR has a tvs marker on it

EDIT:Next radar scan shows it near Forrest City,AR with a TVS marker still on it
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 09:31:24 PM
WMC says the storm will be crossing the river within the hour
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 09:38:02 PM
Now two TVS markers are showing up very close together just east of Forrest City,AR
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:40:08 PM
Line really coming down in intensity...bowing is disappearing...still a severe threat...but not a major/widespread event as it appears from this point...and no Tornado Warnings. Let's hope that continues...MEG's luck continues riding high so far as it has been all year...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 09:45:56 PM
I'm sure MEG will find a reason to issue a TOR for some small corner of Shelby. ;)


Behind this QLCS there isn't much precip... I wonder how that will come into play tomorrow.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 09:54:11 PM
Two TVS markers popping up again northwest of Tunica,MS
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 09:55:58 PM
Looks like outflow is trying to get ahead of the line...indication there may be continued weakening with the line.

Pretty incredible how fast this evolved from a strong tornado threat to a marginal severe thunderstorm situation...MEG definitely has the storm shields up in full force this year...at the tornado shields... ;)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 25, 2011, 10:00:44 PM
MEG definitely has the storm shields up in full force this year...at the tornado shields... ;)

Sometimes things are just rolling your way...dodge another major tornado bullet and a massive win for the Grizzlies.  I don't want to jinx it or anything, but maybe (just maybe), tonight will be a good night for Memphis.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:03:10 PM
West Memphis gusted to a measly 28kts...yawner...  :D We'll see if it gets higher as it comes into Shelby...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 10:03:16 PM
I have secondhand information that sirens are going off in Marion, AR. Maybe just to alert from the high wind threat?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: InMemphis on April 25, 2011, 10:07:25 PM
I have secondhand information that sirens are going off in Marion, AR. Maybe just to alert from the high wind threat?
It would have to be for the wind threat.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:08:11 PM
West Memphis just had a brief gust to 40kts...still well below severe criteria obviously...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:13:11 PM
If you believe the 00z NAM...the MEG CWA is going to be luckiest in the entire South over the next 48 hours...just amazing...we continue to get missed again and again by the worst...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 10:14:11 PM
If you believe the 00z NAM...the MEG CWA is going to be luckiest in the entire South over the next 48 hours...just amazing...we continue to get missed again and again by the worst...

We may get lucky with flooding, too.  It doesn't really look like the storms here are going to linger like they did in Arkansas.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: BryanBarrett on April 25, 2011, 10:14:30 PM
If you believe the 00z NAM...the MEG CWA is going to be luckiest in the entire South over the next 48 hours...just amazing...we continue to get missed again and again by the worst...
what does it show for Middle Tennessee?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: InMemphis on April 25, 2011, 10:14:58 PM
If you believe the 00z NAM...the MEG CWA is going to be luckiest in the entire South over the next 48 hours...just amazing...we continue to get missed again and again by the worst...
No severe weather at all?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 10:15:38 PM
Dew points are dropping as the storms approach.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 25, 2011, 10:16:06 PM
If you believe the 00z NAM...the MEG CWA is going to be luckiest in the entire South over the next 48 hours...just amazing...we continue to get missed again and again by the worst...

 ::hot::   ::applause::   ::cliff::

I vote for this scenario.
My mom contacted me from Marion and stated that the wind was quite gusty but didnt indicate how high that was.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:18:47 PM
what does it show for Middle Tennessee?

Middle TN still gets it Wed Afternoon...

No severe weather at all?

Some severe weather...but nothing worse than we've already had time and time again this year...mostly QLCS threats along with flooding though even that isn't looking as ominous...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:19:48 PM
Outflow is several miles ahead of the line now in Shelby County. Still some strong winds but maybe not many (if any) severe gusts...we'll see as it comes across how things fare...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 10:27:32 PM
A few power outages near Bartlett,TN and near the TN/MS border per MLGW

http://azimuth.mlgw.org/OutageSummary.php (http://azimuth.mlgw.org/OutageSummary.php)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:28:45 PM
A few power outages near Bartlett,TN and near the TN/MS border per MLGW

http://azimuth.mlgw.org/OutageSummary.php (http://azimuth.mlgw.org/OutageSummary.php)

So far quite sparse though. On 4/4 and 4/19 that was going up by the thousands every minute...good trend to see...think this is coming through the county mostly non-severe...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:30:02 PM
So far just 35kts at KMEM...again another good sign...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: InMemphis on April 25, 2011, 10:30:52 PM
So tomorrow is not looking like a major league situation in the midsouth?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 25, 2011, 10:31:23 PM
So far just 35kts at KMEM...again another good sign...

Channel 3 is saying 127 mph shear in northern Shelby and southern Tipton ????
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 25, 2011, 10:32:23 PM
Channel 3 is saying 127 mph shear in northern Shelby and southern Tipton ????

Of course they are all hype 99.99% of the time........
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:33:25 PM
Channel 3 is saying 127 mph shear in northern Shelby and southern Tipton ????

I have no clue what they are looking at...velocity is showing maybe some 40-50mph winds in that area.

This is what happens when you are part of a market that has TV stations that have no idea what they're doing in these events...which is the case for pretty much every station here...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:36:08 PM
KMEM peaked at 44kts...strong...but not severe limits...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 25, 2011, 10:37:10 PM
The winds are going crazy in Atoka! Very strong! Stronger then last tuesday!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:39:05 PM
Outages still not rising much in Shelby County with line halfway through...great news folks...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 25, 2011, 10:39:05 PM
Very strong winds here for about 2 minutes.  I would say we hit svr criteria.  Just a bunch of rain now.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Fred Gossage on April 25, 2011, 10:39:21 PM
I have no clue what they are looking at...velocity is showing maybe some 40-50mph winds in that area.

This is what happens when you are part of a market that has TV stations that have no idea what they're doing in these events...which is the case for pretty much every station here...

Which is why we're working on a solution for that.  >:D
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:40:38 PM
Blytheville AR reported a 50kt gust...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 25, 2011, 10:42:16 PM
Is WMC having data updating problems, they don't show the SVR thunderstorm warning from blytheville to dyserburg on their map?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:45:52 PM
Some small hail here...40mph wind gusts...nothing severe.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 25, 2011, 10:48:40 PM
I lived in Florida most of my life. Been thru hurricanes and a tornado. I can honestly say some of the winds here in Atoka went over 60mph. Not sustained but defiantly gusts!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:49:38 PM
I lived in Florida most of my life. Been thru hurricanes and a tornado. I can honestly say some of the winds here in Atoka went over 60mph. Not sustained but defiantly gusts!
That seems reasonable based on other scattered reports in the line. Appreciate the report :)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bigalpha on April 25, 2011, 10:53:15 PM
Reed Timmer said on FB that he wouldn't be surprised to see an EF5 rating for the Vilonia TOR.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:53:18 PM
Outages still under 10,000 in MLGW area...considering the history this year with these events this was a best-case scenario for Memphis in terms of straight-line winds...obviously tornado threat didn't even factor in this go-around...

Now have to get through Tomorrow Night/Early Wednesday...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 25, 2011, 10:54:59 PM
Large hail being reported in Olive Branch, 305 and 78, by OBFD, this is per Channel 3.  Didn't give a size reference, just large  ???
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 10:56:24 PM
There's some weak and broad rotation in SW Fayette County. I highly doubt its tornadic but knowing MEG they could issue a warning (so far they've been very good for once about over-warning)...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 25, 2011, 10:57:18 PM
Reed Timmer said on FB that he wouldn't be surprised to see an EF5 rating for the Vilonia TOR.

WREG reported that the damage was 5 mi wide and 15 mi long. didnt realize it was that wide.



Line has entered Fayette County. The trees block my wind readings. I need to figure up a conversion. Im seeing 8mph but Im hearing it in the trees pretty good. At least I got the rain gauge hooked up.. Itll be interesting to see what the totals are after this goes through
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 11:03:36 PM
Thinking TORs are imminent from MEG for Fayette and also for Haywood...two areas are rotating some...I don't think its that strong but I can't imagine MEG letting them go based on their past history...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 11:11:24 PM
MEG must have gotten sick of the unverified TORs finally if they're letting Fayette Co go without a TOR. Signature there is better than anything earlier this afternoon.   :D
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 25, 2011, 11:11:43 PM
Thinking TORs are imminent from MEG for Fayette and also for Haywood...two areas are rotating some...I don't think its that strong but I can't imagine MEG letting them go based on their past history...

What specific areas do you see?  I assume between Oakland and Somerville? or am I not seeing what you are seeing?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: c_phillips on April 25, 2011, 11:12:10 PM
Radar screen shot showing those two areas.

(http://i54.tinypic.com/339q93q.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 11:12:40 PM
What specific areas do you see?  I assume between Oakland and Somerville? or am I not seeing what you are seeing?

Just came through the Moscow area...its not that strong but better than anything that had TORs this afternoon...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: InMemphis on April 25, 2011, 11:13:39 PM
Power out in Germantown.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 25, 2011, 11:16:19 PM
New storms starting to build in SW AR behind the main line.   I wouldn't expect anything severe, but this could be the beginning of the heavier rain threat for late tonight into tomorrow.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 25, 2011, 11:21:10 PM
If this is not the right place for this, please delete. Things seem to have slowed down a bit in W Fayette. I picked up 3.6" rain on my Peet Bros 2100. since 10:57p. Almost all of the line has passed me.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 11:25:21 PM
Dave Brown says that the models were a bit too slow with the storm coming through tonight.

I was able to check the EMC WRF, and see that it seems to be slow.  Here it is at midnight, about 35 minutes from now, showing the storms still in E AR:

(http://i55.tinypic.com/263k5xj.gif)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 25, 2011, 11:26:25 PM
Also, still noticing vivid lightning here in north Cordova, some of the lightning makes it look like daytime.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 25, 2011, 11:30:11 PM
I lived in Florida most of my life. Been thru hurricanes and a tornado. I can honestly say some of the winds here in Atoka went over 60mph. Not sustained but defiantly gusts!

MEG got a report of a 75 mph wind gust is Atoka...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 11:30:23 PM
Jackson/Mckellar just gusted to 61kts...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 25, 2011, 11:34:28 PM
Power outages in Tipton County. Atoka, Brighton, Munford areas.  Tree down on old Brighton Rd.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 11:34:54 PM
Alright...barring anything major developing...I'm calling it a night here on my end. Going to try and catch up on sleep tonight as it appears it may stay mostly calm. Preparing for maybe still an all-nighter tomorrow night. Sure we'll also be following the reports and results of what surely were strong and perhaps violent tornadoes in AR earlier this evening. Can't stress how lucky we got off on this one...those shields are working at full strength...let's hope we repeat tomorrow...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on April 25, 2011, 11:35:26 PM
Our power is out here in Jackson >:(
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2011, 11:36:28 PM
Just came through the Moscow area...its not that strong but better than anything that had TORs this afternoon...

IDK... I thought the warnings in Crockett/Gibson counties were justified. And with potential damage in Crockett County, maybe they were on to something.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 25, 2011, 11:38:29 PM
Uh oh... Got our first SVR behind the main line.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 25, 2011, 11:43:50 PM
BTW...members...not sure if I or one of the other staff mentioned this...but I wouldn't expect SWM to be lifted until after Wednesday...so please continue to follow the rules/guidelines that go along with it...so far so good by everybody!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Matt on April 25, 2011, 11:46:46 PM
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for western Middle Tennessee.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 25, 2011, 11:55:35 PM
MEG got a report of a 75 mph wind gust is Atoka...

Yeah I knew I was estimating low on that one. That's why I said over 60.  ;D
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 26, 2011, 12:21:39 AM
I don't see why MEG has started tossing out TORs again. Best radar view out of Columbus,MS shows diddly squat on any of these. Maybe I'm missing something?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 12:22:48 AM
I don't see why MEG has started tossing out TORs again. Best radar view out of Columbus,MS shows diddly squat on any of these. Maybe I'm missing something?

Thought I saw a little notch, but nothing screaming too loudly.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 26, 2011, 12:31:33 AM
IDK... I thought the warnings in Crockett/Gibson counties were justified. And with potential damage in Crockett County, maybe they were on to something.

I would agree.



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 12:38:40 AM
Quote
1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N DUNDEE              34.55N 90.45W
04/25/2011                   TUNICA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE HOUSE DESTROYED, THREE WITH MAJOR DAMAGE IN MALD
            COMMUNITY 2-3 NORTH OF DUNDEE.

Hmm. Of course this caught my interest since it's Tunica County, but that's a little intense. It's also Maud, not Mald.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 12:42:23 AM
Hearing reports of 2 fatalities in Vilonia; other 3 are flood related.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 12:42:47 AM
...Just when MEG was doing so good...lol...oh well...

Of course Dave Brown has used this opportunity go into full MEG-bashing mode...

...edit...and yikes...a huge new TOR...just don't see what's going on of issue...have to agree with others...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 12:45:12 AM
This thing clearly has outflow racing ahead of it off GWX...they are not going to produce tornadoes with that happening...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 12:47:05 AM
I would agree.



Nice picture. I wasn't saying the TOR for that area wasn't justified...but the radar indication we were getting earlier in Fayette Co was actually stronger than anything we saw with that one. Yet...no TOR was ever issued. And now we have all of these going on?

I can only assume a new radar operator has taken over that's doing things completely different now...there's been no consistency at all from them...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Shanti on April 26, 2011, 01:06:40 AM
This thing clearly has outflow racing ahead of it off GWX...they are not going to produce tornadoes with that happening...

Glad you're awake...  ;)
I perked right up when I saw those TOR's....always enjoy your input...
Pretty windy here..wish I knew how to measure the wind gust speeds..looking forward to this line passing and then enjoying the rest of the night..
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 01:14:33 AM
Take a peek at the latest day 2 SPC outlook (valid Wednesday).

Here are a couple of relevant snippets.  Didn't feel that posting the entire thing w/graphics was necessary atm since we still have day 1 to focus on.  Still, I think we need to start thinking about Wednesday.

Quote
AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE
   VICINITY OF AR EARLY NNEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A
   TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER
   MS VALLEYS.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS -- WITH A ZONE BETWEEN THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIAN
   CREST LIKELY TO SEE A WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
   WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD.  
  
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   ***POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT --
   INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- REMAINS EVIDENT
   THIS FORECAST...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA.***

Quote
STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 80 TO 100
   KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
   VERY INTENSE/LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THIS -- COMBINED WITH
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
   SIGNIFICANT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND -- DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE --
   THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/VERY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

    ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
   TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...
WHILE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
   WIND DAMAGE -- ALONG WITH TORNADO THREAT -- WILL EXTEND NNEWD ACROSS
   THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 01:28:49 AM
Nice picture. I wasn't saying the TOR for that area wasn't justified...but the radar indication we were getting earlier in Fayette Co was actually stronger than anything we saw with that one. Yet...no TOR was ever issued. And now we have all of these going on?

I can only assume a new radar operator has taken over that's doing things completely different now...there's been no consistency at all from them...

Ah okay. That makes sense.

Seems like two potential survey areas from today will be Cross County (reported tornado damage around Fair Oaks) and maybe Crockett.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 26, 2011, 01:29:32 AM
Take a peek at the latest day 2 SPC outlook (valid Wednesday).

Here are a couple of relevant snippets.  Didn't feel that posting the entire thing w/graphics was necessary atm since we still have day 1 to focus on.  Still, I think we need to start thinking about Wednesday.

Yikes.


On a lighter note, the OFB seems to have really done a number on the line in NE MS. Talk about choking off inflow…. My only concern is redevelopment ahead of the boundary, which in this scale could act as a cold forcing mechanism.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 01:31:42 AM
Funnily enough, the new Day 1 doesn't look too different from Monday's MOD.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1probotlk_20110426_1200_torn_prt.gif)

Grabbed relevant quotes from the new Day 1.

Quote
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM NWRN TX AT 00Z
   INTO AR BY 12Z WED...AND THIS IS WHERE FORCING/LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED.
   THE PRIMARY ZONE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING STRONG
   TORNADOES WILL COMMENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN TX/SERN
   OK...AND WILL EXPAND EWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AR...EXTREME NRN
   LA...AND INTO NRN MS/WRN TN BY WED MORNING.
   

Quote
...A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN
   TX/SERN OK EWD ACROSS AR LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...
   
   ...NERN TX/SERN OK EWD INTO AR...LA...MS...WRN TN...
   STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH MUCAPE
   2000-3000 J/KG E OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS TX/OK BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES. SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL BE QUITE
   FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
   
   CAPPING WILL BE BREACHED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER NERN
   TX/SERN OK...WITH SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY
   LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE IN SOME FORM EWD WITH THE
   SURFACE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF AR...FAR NRN LA AND INTO NWRN MS AND WRN
   TN. INITIALLY...SUPERCELLS ARE THE PREFERRED STORM MODE...BUT WITH
   TIME...EXTREMELY STRONG BOWS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
   WINDS MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL..ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHT. HIGH
   RESOLUTION WRF MODELS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO.

   
   THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT POTENTIAL STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADO COVERAGE
   SINCE LATE INITIATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...AND CAPPING WILL PLAY
   A ROLE WITH SWD EXTENT. WILL DEFER ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK
   TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

   
   ...AR/NRN MS/WRN TN EARLY/MIDDAY...
   WARM ADVECTION NWD INTO AR/MS/TN...ATOP RESIDUAL COOL OUTFLOW FROM
   EARLIER CONVECTION...MAY HELP INITIATE AREAS OF STORMS BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON.
SHEAR PROFILES...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THEY WILL BE
   LATER...WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF A FEW
   TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 01:34:04 AM
Yikes.


On a lighter note, the OFB seems to have really done a number on the line in NE MS. Talk about choking off inflow…. My only concern is redevelopment ahead of the boundary, which in this scale could act as a cold forcing mechanism.

Looks like the strongest part of the line is heading toward Lawrence, Maury, Williamson counties ATM.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 01:39:25 AM
Not sure why I'm waiting for this line considering what may be in store over the next couple of days.

Anyway, yeah, SWM.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 01:42:20 AM
TVS marker showing up between Centerville and Columbia
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 01:45:12 AM
The storm near Ashland City and Springfield looks like it re-organized a bit
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 01:47:56 AM
A very small number of customers without power around Nashville, but some none the less


http://www.nespower.com/OutageMap/default.aspx (http://www.nespower.com/OutageMap/default.aspx)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 01:48:43 AM
I think I-65 is going to put that line out of its misery.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 01:51:28 AM
I think I-65 is going to put that line out of its misery.

Funny thing is that the part of the line moving toward metro nashville looks more threatening than the part up in KY, yet KLMK issues a svr tstorm warning for bowling green area, but KOHX won't issue one for the Nashville part of the line.

Well, it looked like that on radar at first(to me), but now TVS marker showing up near Bowling Green
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 02:14:12 AM
KY mesonet near campus just gusted to 50 mph...had about ten minutes of wind gusts over 40 mph, have never seen winds this intense last so long...as you can see, woke me up.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 02:19:15 AM
The winds were there...now died down...but storm is not even here yet?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Shanti on April 26, 2011, 02:31:25 AM
wow yea it just did that here to. it was really gusting out there then it stopped.. calm before the storm i guess. lol
calm here to in south western Davidson co..after line went through..piece of cake...now for day 2.. ;)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bigalpha on April 26, 2011, 02:34:40 AM
We had intense winds come through. I guess it was a bow line feature?  There are widespread power outages here too. many trees down across roads.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 02:36:30 AM
This is pretty weak for a SVR tstorm, nothing happening here as far as I can tell
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 02:37:02 AM
Quite sub-severe here.  Just a burst of rain, max gust only 32 MPH.  

The main line has passed, lightning seems to be in the rain shield behind it.

Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 02:43:48 AM
TVS marker showing up between bethpage and hartsville

Also, a few more power outages showing up around Nashville area
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 02:51:05 AM
Looks like all warnings have been canceled at the moment
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 02:54:02 AM
There's a TOR up for Drew/Lincoln/Desha in AR behind the line. Decent, but broad, rotation. Weird to see severe storms so close behind a convective system like that.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 03:53:03 AM
Quote
1145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCLEMORESVILLE          35.99N 88.58W
04/25/2011                   CARROLL            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE REPORTED ACROSS ALL OF CARROLL
            COUNTY TENNESSEE AS REPORTED BY CARROLL COUNTY EMA.
            WIDESPREAD TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. MANY ROADS ARE
            IMPASSABLE. SEVERAL HOMES DAMAGED WITH ONE DESTROYED
            BETWEEN HUNTINGDON AND MCLEMORESVILLE. ADDITIONAL DAMAGE
            IN VALE AND MIXIE.

KTHV is reporting 6 tornado fatalities. 4 in Black Oak, AR and 2 in Vilonia.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: BRUCE on April 26, 2011, 05:00:21 AM
wond get to post much, due to work. but this is looking very dangerous later. spc is useing the word viloent tornadoes and long track strong ones. lets just hope we get them to go linear later. but i am affraid due to the aprroximity of the slp, its going to be rough, be a lot of lift involved. plus later the atmospehere will recovery plentiful.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: StormNine on April 26, 2011, 05:08:34 AM
 One thing that may hamper the threat and we will have to see how that will impact us is because of all the outflow and cold pooling a lot of the heavier precipitation has been shifted way south.  Along Northern MS and along the gulf in LA.  What remains to be seen is how that will clear out.  If it doesn't it could limit our threat of severe weather or really really heavy rain.  If it does clear out then watch out and hold on to something.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Adam on April 26, 2011, 06:39:54 AM
This line of rain already looks to be weakening quite a bit.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Adam on April 26, 2011, 07:07:15 AM
Wow some areas here have already seen 2.5 inches of rain this morning.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 07:10:10 AM
It appears this morning rain will be moving out fairly soon...already decent clearing of the rain off to the west, and as Adam said, the whole rain shield appears to be falling apart.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Adam on April 26, 2011, 07:11:22 AM
It appears this morning rain will be moving out fairly soon...already decent clearing of the rain off to the west, and as Adam said, the whole rain shield appears to be falling apart.
Yeah but the first line still has some kick. I have had 2 inches of rain already here. So someone give me the set up as to what to look out for.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Milodog2 on April 26, 2011, 07:29:23 AM
Go out for the first time to see the damage in Knoxville and north of the city their is lots of tree damage. Counted 5 houses and 1 church with trees on them and numerous more trees down that are est at 100 year old oaks. I was just north of the most damage and have never experienced winds like that. Be safe today people and god bless.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: vanster67 on April 26, 2011, 07:43:36 AM
Morning all.  I can see where the rain might move in and out pretty quick for my area.  Is it going to get pretty bad around middle TN tonight, and Tommorow especially?  I saw where Dr Forbes has Mid-TN at a Tor-Con index of 7 for tommorow, I wonder if he will take it higher in his next update.  Hope not.  What does anyone have to say about either today's moderate or tommorows being upgraded to a high risk?.  Stay safe :)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: BrandonAL on April 26, 2011, 07:45:07 AM
A High risk was just issued for Day 1 of the Convective Outlook for the southern half of AR and extreme NE TX.  Wednesday is shaping up to be extremely ugly in the TN/AL area.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 26, 2011, 07:45:42 AM
It appears this morning rain will be moving out fairly soon...already decent clearing of the rain off to the west, and as Adam said, the whole rain shield appears to be falling apart.

Dry punch at the mid levels? Probably not good
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 26, 2011, 07:51:24 AM
WHOA..

Check out HUN's AFD:

Quote
..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...


SYNOPSIS...A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SEND
WAVE UPON WAVE OF SEVERE/TORNADIC WEATHER ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WITH THE SFC FRONT STALLED OUT OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS N MS/W TN AND INTO NW AL.

ENVELOPED IN THE OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN (OVER THE WESTERN STATES) IS
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PARTICULAR
FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE CONTINUING
ACROSS NE AL AND WITH ITS EXIT, THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE
ACTION. CLOUDS MAY EVEN BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ACT
TO DESTABILIZING THE ENVIRONMENT. THE NAM HAS BEEN QUITE UNHELPFUL
WITH THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION, AND HAVE
MAINLY RELIED ON THE GFS AND RUC. WITH THESE SOLUTIONS IN MIND, IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY DUE TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE EVIDENCED BY A MCS OVER LA.

AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY IS HIGH WITH
SBCAPES OF 3000 J/KG WHILE WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE: 0-3 KM SRH OF
100-200 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KTS RANGE. THUS,
HAVE KEPT OR INTRODUCED SEVERE WORDING GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS AND
THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ON THE SUBJECT OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL KEEP THE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THESE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE
SAME AREA.

AFTER THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, MORE
SIGNIFICANT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE (THE
ONE OVER FOUR CORNERS RIGHT NOW) WILL DRIVE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH THIS LINE. IN ADDITION, WIND SHEAR IS OFF
THE CHARTS WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 60-70 KTS RANGE AND SRHS IN
THE SAME LAYER IN THE 600-700 RANGE. WITH THE STRONG VEERING EVIDENT
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT,
EXPECTING THE PRIMARY IMPACTS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES, LARGE
HAIL, AND FLASH FLOODING.

AFTER THIS LINE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST TOWARDS GA, EXPECTING
DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY STRONG LLJ TO CAUSE A QUICK RECOVERY TO
THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
FINAL SEVERE WEATHER ROUND APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACTIVITY WITH EVEN MORE INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE, THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A SECONDARY SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE NW OF
THE AREA OVER W TN WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL (CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW).

**THIS ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER (WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING) IS
WHERE WE COULD HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
TORNADOES TRACKING ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TN AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS N AL AND CENTRAL AL. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.**


EVEN WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER, FLASH FLOODING WITH ALL OF THESE
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 TO 6 INCHES, ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL.

WHAT MAY BE THE LESSOR OF THE 3 THREATS IS WINDSPEEDS AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT. WINDSPEEDS COULD
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH BEGINNING AROUND 06Z TONIGHT INTO ALL OF
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING,
EXPECTING PRETTY MUCH ALL CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AND CAA TO
SWIFTLY DROP TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN A BUILDING RIDGE. IN FACT,
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AS HIGHS (WITH GRADUAL WARMING INTO THE
80S ON SATURDAY) AND IN THE 40S AS LOWS. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES FROM THE SOUTHER PLAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS TROUGH COULD BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER, BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT, WILL JUST INCLUDE CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 07:55:43 AM
The SPC has just upgraded the Arklatex region and most of southern AR on the new Day 1 map to HIGH risk...

(http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_20110426_1300_prt.gif)

Quote
  DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
  
   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...AND THE SRN HALF OF
   AR...
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
   NE TX/SE OK TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD SWATH FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS EWD/NEWD TO THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
  
   ...DANGEROUS TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NE TX ENEWD TO THE MS RIVER...
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO/IL WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD LOWER
   MI TODAY...WHILE AN INTENSE UPSTREAM JET STREAK PROGRESSES ESEWD TO
   THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT.  MORNING SUBSIDENCE OVER AR /IN THE WAKE
   OF THE DEPARTING WAVE/ WILL BE REPLACED BY ASCENT BEGINNING ALONG
   THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/SRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING
   EWD THIS EVENING INTO SE OK/NE TX AND SRN AR OVERNIGHT.  A STRONG
   SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THIS SAME CORRIDOR IN
   RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
   90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET.  THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A STRENGTHENING SLY/SSWLY LLJ FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE ACROSS E TX...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ORIGINATING TO THE W...WILL PROVIDE MODERATE-STRONG WARM SECTOR
   INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE.  THE NET RESULT
   WILL BE A STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHICH APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A DANGEROUS
   TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK.
  
   ...S/SE AR INTO NW MS TODAY...
   INITIAL WARM ADVECTION STORMS WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ALONG AND N
   OF THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS S/SE AR AND NW MS...AS LOW-LEVEL
   WAA INCREASES WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ.  A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
   ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SRH
   AOA 200 M2/S2 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
  
   ...ARKLATEX/SE OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
   OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MOVED OVER AR/NW MS LEFT AN E-W OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY THAT WILL BECOME THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TODAY.  FARTHER
   S...A WEAKENING MCS OVER SRN LA/MS HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL ACROSS
   CENTRAL LA/E TX...BUT AN UNIMPEDED FEED OF LOW 70S BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS REMAINS TO THE W OF THIS CONVECTION ACROSS SE TX.  THE SE
   TX MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD TODAY AS THE SRN LA STORMS
   DISSIPATE...WHILE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
   OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE W.  THESE PROCESSES...COMBINED
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
   2500-3500 J/KG IN THE NE TX WARM SECTOR...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER
   INSTABILITY FARTHER E ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR...AND FARTHER N INTO SE
   OK.
  
   SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   N/NE TX...ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE TO THE IMMEDIATE E/SE OF
   THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD SW AR/NW LA THROUGH TONIGHT.
   THE STRONG INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60
   KT...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2...AND A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES
   WITH DISCRETE AND CLUSTER SUPERCELLS INTO THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
   NIGHTTIME HOURS.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
   LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS.
  
   ...NRN LA/SE AR/NW MS/WRN TN TONIGHT...
   AS THE STRONG SYNOPTIC CYCLONE PROGRESSES EWD AND INTERACTS WITH THE
   UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...INTENSE CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.  INITIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN NE TX/SW AR AREA
   SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE INTENSE
   MCS/S...WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   WIDESPREAD/INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS TORNADOES.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD/NEWD TO THE MS RIVER LATE
   TONIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT ENEWD.
  
   ...OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
   THE EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BROAD SWATH OF
   MODERATE-STRONG SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...ABOVE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION MAKE THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
   SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TODAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION...THOUGH
   SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
   AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
  
   ..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/26/2011
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 07:56:54 AM
Mike Seidel is in Little Rock and is reporting skies are clearing...latest visible satellite image shows the clearing skies even approaching the MS River.

(http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/814/1kmv.gif)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 08:09:09 AM
Earlier OHX AM disco

Quote
DISCUSSION...
SVR TSTM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS MID TN THIS MORNING...BUT CAN
STILL NOT RULE OUT A STRONG TSTMS OR TWO ACROSS E PORTIONS OF
THE MID STATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TWO PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ACROSS THE
MID STATE ALSO AND UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO ANY WORDING THAT
MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WILL GO WITH SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS...
EXCEPT SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MID TN BY SUNSET. THIS IS STILL WHEN
IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA.
SHWR AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT. THRU TONIGHT ALSO...
CAN ALSO NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LATE AFTERNOON THRU EVENING CONVECTION...AS SPC DAY ONE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE MID STATE IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR TSTMS THRU TONIGHT ALSO.

SPC DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO PLACE ALL OF THE MID
STATE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS THRU WED. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX OUTBREAK...AS BEFORE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SVR TSTMS
IN THE ZONES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS COULD DEVELOP INTO
A WIDESPREAD SVR WX EVENT...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AGAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...IS EXPECTED BY SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN.

HYDROLOGY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR TODAY THRU
WED EVENING...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING AT LEAST AROUND
2 INCHES ACROSS LOCATIONS ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...TO
AROUND FIVE INCHES...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID STATE. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO SEVEN INCHES ARE STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THESE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA. AS LIKE THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT LOCALIZED FLOODING TO BECOME LIKELY BY
WED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE...AS REPEATED ROUNDS OF
TSTMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 08:20:08 AM
This image is the latest SREF. It measures the ingredients for significant tornado potential...anything above 30 is pretty alarming, just look at this large 50 zone...::wow::

(http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/9907/srefprobcombinedsigtorf.gif)

50 probs. include: Nashville, Lawrenceburg, Birmingham, Starkville.

40 probs. include: Bowling Green, Elizabethtown (KY), Woodbury

30 probs. include: Jackson (TN), Louisville, Mobile

All these numbers tell me that an increase to a HIGH risk, across portions of MS/AL/TN seems very likely. They should also make the MDT risk zone bigger and include portions of southern MS/AL...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 08:21:30 AM
This is going to be a bad week...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 08:33:43 AM
Here is my Day 2 updated outlook prediction...the real one will be issued around noon today.

(http://img709.imageshack.us/img709/3066/southeastlow.jpg)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 26, 2011, 08:36:02 AM
This is going to be a bad week...

Agreed.  Things look to be falling in line for a red letter day across the region. 

If you know of people who are usually relaxed during severe events, or that don't usually know of anything happening until it's happening, now might be a good time to give them a heads up. Make sure to tell them that even if they don't usually take the warnings seriously, tomorrow is NO JOKE (today either, for that matter, but moreso tomorrow).

Make your preparations TODAY.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 08:41:16 AM
Time for my morning thoughts.....

Usually, I'm not one to "hype" an event.  Most that have seen my posting style over the years know that I fall into the "downplayer" category.  After looking through various data this morning, I feel compelled to step over that line and tell it how I see it....and it looks very bad for TN tomorrow.  

Based off the 06z NAM/GFS, and given considerable model consensus between the two, I feel confident in my interpretations.  There will be a tremendous amount of upper-level support, as well as mid-level and surface support, for enhanced areas of convection over much of the western 2/3s of the state.  Theta-E values are good and CAPE values increase during the afternoon.  EHI values increase, as well, pegging out at 3 (0-1km EHI) and a 6 (0-3km EHI) across the TN River.  SRH values look alarming as well...between 250 and 300 m2/s2 at both 0-1km and 0-3km respectively.

There are a few things that REALLY concern me.  One, the broad warm sector clears out during the late morning, early afternoon which will aid in rapid updraft growth.  Two, there appears to be a slight temperature inversion that develops after the morning crapvection moves out.  The cap should be strong enough to keep new crapvection clear, but weak enough to allow explosive updraft growth once it's breached.  Three, the linear forcing won't arrive in TN until late Wednesday evening.  Given the lack of a forcing mechanism, there could be a long and drawn out window of discrete superell activity beginning late Wednesday morning lasting through the late evening.  Four, the dew point depression looks to be in that "critical" range (2-4C difference).  If that verifies, the LCLs would be extremely low.  That's concerning, at least to me, because lower LCLs were a big component of the North Carolina outbreak a few weeks ago.  

There could be mitigating factors that could affect how conditions react tomorrow...but synoptically speaking, this has the earmarks of a big-time event for someone across the Deep South.  I urge ALL of you to heed any and all warnings that are issued and have a disaster plan ready.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: marjl21 on April 26, 2011, 08:57:28 AM
Apparently that line really got cranking last night after it passed Memphis... Several schools are closed (Jackson/Madison Co and Paris/Henry Co) due to so many trees and power lines being down and buses being unable to run routes.  Highway 79 through the middle of Paris is still closed this morning because of several large trees down across the road.  Per Beau on AmericanWx, the 4000 lb giant fake bull in front of the Sirloin Stockade was lifted off the ground and moved 20 yards by the wind.  Winds there were estimated over 100 MPH.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 09:01:02 AM
(http://aviationweather.gov/adds/data/satellite/latest_MGM_vis.jpg)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Susan on April 26, 2011, 09:04:51 AM
Time for my morning thoughts.....

Thank you, Eric.


When stating "late Wednesday morning", do you mean 4a to 5a ish or 10a to 11a ish ????
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2011, 09:16:55 AM
Waay suprised to see no convection anywhere west of here and sunshine this morning.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 09:22:01 AM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/meg/graphic/mainriverstages_thumb.png)

From MEG office
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 26, 2011, 09:23:49 AM
Waay suprised to see no convection anywhere west of here and sunshine this morning.

As am I, and it's a bit alarming. Often times what saves us is the convective mess that crops up during the morning hours and eats into some of the instability. Seems like that has been the case in Memphis during every potential severe weather outbreak this year - either we get enough crapvection to sort of clear the air, so to speak, or storms come in during the late evening/early morning after they've already organized into a linear mode.

It's partly to mostly sunny downtown on the river right now, and temps were already hovering around 70 when I came in at 8:30.

I have a bad feeling.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Ratchet_33 on April 26, 2011, 09:26:13 AM
In lawrenceburg, the rain has completely stopped and the sun is trying to shine through the clouds. I'd say by late morning sun should be shining moreso than now..very, very concerned about our area for tomorrow
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Milodog2 on April 26, 2011, 09:26:15 AM
Do you guys think Knoxville will get in on the discreet threat or more of a squall line threat.(http://tapatalk.com/mu/a6cd0c76-d5a7-dbf0.jpg)(http://tapatalk.com/mu/a6cd0c76-d5cc-a2bf.jpg)

A couple of pic from my house yesterday. Is this a scud cloud?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 09:30:33 AM
Not sure about anyone else, but I'm getting confused as to whether we're discussing today or tomorrow.   Since both are very legitimate threats, thinking maybe we should separate topics? 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 09:38:04 AM
Thank you, Eric.


When stating "late Wednesday morning", do you mean 4a to 5a ish or 10a to 11a ish ????

Late Wednesday morning = 10-11a.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 09:38:43 AM
Do you guys think Knoxville will get in on the discreet threat or more of a squall line threat.(http://tapatalk.com/mu/a6cd0c76-d5a7-dbf0.jpg)(http://tapatalk.com/mu/a6cd0c76-d5cc-a2bf.jpg)

A couple of pic from my house yesterday. Is this a scud cloud?

Possible unorganized, non-rotating wall cloud....don't think it's scud.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 09:40:45 AM
Not sure about anyone else, but I'm getting confused as to whether we're discussing today or tomorrow.   Since both are very legitimate threats, thinking maybe we should separate topics?  

It is the same slow-moving synoptic system producing weather today and tomorrow.  So, that argues for one thread, IMO.

This is a multiple-day event.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 26, 2011, 09:41:16 AM
How are things looking for W. Tn? Today into tomorrow?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 09:42:11 AM
Web-briefing from SPC


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.mp4
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Milodog2 on April 26, 2011, 09:46:26 AM
Eric, it was on the leading edge of the sever storm in Knox.(http://tapatalk.com/mu/a6cd0c76-da50-b9c0.jpg)(http://tapatalk.com/mu/a6cd0c76-daac-4624.jpg)

Some tree damage pics
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 09:48:10 AM
This system has some alarming similarities to the system that affected the area on May 1-2 of last year.

The 8-13" rainfall totals being forecasted out of OHX for northern Middle TN is unsettling to say the least, though it does still fall short of some of last year's totals.  Let's hope it stays that way.  That was supposed to be a once in 1000 year event for area rivers... surely not again only a year later.

The tornado threat tomorrow may be significantly higher with this system compared to last year however.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 09:59:13 AM
If there's any good news for Today SPC seems to think MEG's best threat is late night tonight in the form of MCS/bow echo activity...same thing we've been dealing with all year. As implied by the high risk upgrade and within their text...they think the discrete cell threat may stay more confined to the Arklatex.

I guess the big question is if anything can fire before mid-evening when a discrete mode seems more possible. Sme high-res models have tried to indicate that. HRRR in particular was ominous in a few early morning runs but has backed off that now and seems to be falling back to the linear threat later tonight. We'll have to see what happens.

Clearly the MEG area will probably escape the worst again based on the HIGH Today and MDT (Probably will go HIGH) Tomorrow. We'll see if there can be a discrete threat maintained longer this time around...however...that should ultimately determine whether we have any significant tornado threat.

MEG is having a teleconference at 11:00 am...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 10:09:55 AM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
947 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WILL BE EAST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLAETAU BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BAND OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND GENERALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME. SUNSHINE
ALREADY BACK IN PLAY OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE, WHICH WILL ACT ON
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL THEN, JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY, HEAD NORTHEAST AND DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD WITH TIME.

EXPECT STORMS TO BE BACK IN WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. THESE MAY BE
DELAYED A LITTLE LATER THAN YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY, AND CLOSER TO
SUNSET OR EARLY EVENING.

WILL UPDATE TO INDICATE NEW PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND MAY TINKER
WITH FORECAST AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT (ESPECIALLY WHERE
OVC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGEST).
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 10:11:03 AM
Yeah, we'll just have to see what happens. I was planning on going chasing today, guess that wont happen depending on the storm modes around the MEG area.  And I really didn't plan on going down to the 4 state rgn today, but who knows.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 10:15:06 AM
This system has some alarming similarities to the system that affected the area on May 1-2 of last year.

The 8-13" rainfall totals being forecasted out of OHX for northern Middle TN is unsettling to say the least, though it does still fall short of some of last year's totals.  Let's hope it stays that way.  That was supposed to be a once in 1000 year event for area rivers... surely not again only a year later.

The tornado threat tomorrow may be significantly higher with this system compared to last year however.

You know, I've been thinking about this, and yeah, could we really be looking at repeating a 1000 year event two years in a row?  I keep dismissing it because of those odds, and hopefully those odds alone are enough to keep it from happening.  Yet I haven't heard much reassurance that it won't be like last year. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 10:17:34 AM
Wow that morning crapvection just cleared out in a hurry.   Sun is out.    I'm getting the "dig a hole" feeling about the next couple of days.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 26, 2011, 10:22:43 AM
You know, I've been thinking about this, and yeah, could we really be looking at repeating a 1000 year event two years in a row?  I keep dismissing it because of those odds, and hopefully those odds alone are enough to keep it from happening.  Yet I haven't heard much reassurance that it won't be like last year. 

It will not take as much rain as last year for another 1000 year event for West TN. If we get 5 or 6 inches of rain it will be devastating with the Mississippi this high. Way more concerned for flooding than tornadoes for my area.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 10:22:43 AM
Wow that morning crapvection just cleared out in a hurry.   Sun is out.    I'm getting the "dig a hole" feeling about the next couple of days.

Yep..I need to check the batteries for my radio, start clearing my closet floor again, and see if I need to make a battery run this afternoon when we have a bit of a break.

Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 26, 2011, 10:25:05 AM
HRRR is certainly concerning, even into middle.

Looks like a tornadic supercell in SW Middle

(http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/full/2011042613/cref_sfc_f08.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 10:30:08 AM
You know, I've been thinking about this, and yeah, could we really be looking at repeating a 1000 year event two years in a row?  I keep dismissing it because of those odds, and hopefully those odds alone are enough to keep it from happening.  Yet I haven't heard much reassurance that it won't be like last year. 

One factor that comforts me a little is that this event isn't quite as compressed and continuous as the May event last year.  It's actually more spread out with more breaks in between.  This hopefully gives the small to moderately sized streams more time to flush the runoff between rounds of heavy rainfall.  Instead of 18-20 inches of rain in 36 hours, it may only be 8-13 inches of rain spread out over 48 hours or more with significant breaks in between.

Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 10:30:43 AM
The HRRR develops WAA thunderstorms in South AR/North MS...you can see them there...late this afternoon...but sends them pretty much due East instead of Northeast...through the entire HRRR run the MEG area pretty much doesn't have anything of note to worry about. Early runs developed this activity (potentially supercelluar) right over us...so its been trending significantly south with this all day. Don't know if it will verify...but would be good...would indicate the new warm front taking shape to our south has trouble working north into the area...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 10:34:08 AM
HRRR is certainly concerning, even into middle.

Looks like a tornadic supercell in SW Middle

Can these models predict details like a single supercell? Would be interesting to take note of the exact time and reflect on this at the predicted time.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 10:37:08 AM
Need to also note late afternoon/early evening activity if/where it develops...is going to have much weaker winds to work with than it will later this evening as the primary system and LLJ strengthen. Doesn't negate the tornado threat completely...but these may not be big-time tornado producers...again if/where they develop.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 10:42:07 AM
Need to also note late afternoon/early evening activity if/where it develops...is going to have much weaker winds to work with than it will later this evening as the primary system and LLJ strengthen. Doesn't negate the tornado threat completely...but these may not be big-time tornado producers...again if/where they develop.

This is today you're talking about I assume?

Curious to hear your thoughts about tomorrow's threat....any bust potential?  I ask because you'd be the first one to see it. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 10:43:59 AM
This is today you're talking about I assume?

Curious to hear your thoughts about tomorrow's threat....any bust potential?  I ask because you'd be the first one to see it. 

Yes.

As far as tomorrow...I still haven't looked at it a whole lot...my main concern would be that perhaps a linear mode dominates further north across TN...but that's certainly not a guarantee...I expect at least South-Middle will probably go High Risk at some point...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 10:53:50 AM
MEG area will soon be upgraded to HIGH Risk....stay tuned for details...
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0585.gif)


Additionally...MEG has made the rare move of adding tornadoes to the ZFP for Tonight...
Quote
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 10:56:20 AM
Text...

Quote
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1051 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN AR/SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
   
   VALID 261551Z - 261645Z
   
   THE EXISTING CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED
   NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORTHCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE
   REMAINING PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR...WHILE ADDING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
   TN/NORTHWEST MS INTO A HIGH RISK. FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
   DISCUSSION...SEE THE FORTHCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED
   BY AROUND 1630Z.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/26/2011
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 10:57:46 AM
About to go into MEG conference. Their conference page indicates they are currently in coordination with SPC on the high risk upgrade...they will have details within their conference about the upgrade...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 11:05:04 AM
Sun is now breaking through here in Brentwood after departure of morning storms...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 11:06:37 AM
MEG Conference Notes...

All of the MEG area will see severe weather in some form in the next 24 to 36 hours...degree of severity in one place will be the difference. First round expected this evening with initiation somewhere between 4-8PM. All modes of severe weather possible. The largest tornado threat currently appears to be in N MS. Threat continues into overnight and becomes further widespread as more waves move through. Tornadoes are "likely". Final wave moves through morning with yet another "likely tornado threat"...most over West TN/Northeast MS.

All storms will contain very heavy rainfall and flash flooding. 5"+ in the next 24 hours for most counties...saturated grounds will lead to extreme flash flooding. Damage will be enhanced due to saturated grounds on trees.

Central MEG counties will be upgraded to HIGH Risk in the next half hour...but other areas remain in MDT risk and tornadoes are possible anywhere.

Very short conference...now over...they sound very pressed for time...not a whole lot of technical/specific information provided...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 11:06:55 AM
The High risk expansion makes me wonder if the MDT will get pushed into Middle TN.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Brian on April 26, 2011, 11:08:08 AM
regarding the LLJ...keep your weather radios and associated batteries charged.  Like LL, I can't live without my radio!

Need to also note late afternoon/early evening activity if/where it develops...is going to have much weaker winds to work with than it will later this evening as the primary system and LLJ strengthen. Doesn't negate the tornado threat completely...but these may not be big-time tornado producers...again if/where they develop.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 26, 2011, 11:08:55 AM
The High risk expansion makes me wonder if the MDT will get pushed into Middle TN.

I was wondering the same.

Based on the model trends, and what I'm seeing on HRRR, it wouldn't surprise me.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 26, 2011, 11:09:39 AM
MEG Conference Notes...

All of the MEG area will see severe weather in some form in the next 24 to 36 hours...degree of severity in one place will be the difference. First round expected this evening with initiation somewhere between 4-8PM. All modes of severe weather possible. The largest tornado threat currently appears to be in N MS. Threat continues into overnight and becomes further widespread as more waves move through. Tornadoes are "likely". Final wave moves through morning with yet another "likely tornado threat"...most over West TN/Northeast MS.

All storms will contain very heavy rainfall and flash flooding. 5"+ in the next 24 hours for most counties...saturated grounds will lead to extreme flash flooding. Damage will be enhanced due to saturated grounds on trees.

Central MEG counties will be upgraded to HIGH Risk in the next half hour...but other areas remain in MDT risk and tornadoes are possible anywhere.

Very short conference...now over...they sound very pressed for time...not a whole lot of technical/specific information provided...

If I had to guess, I'd say that strong dynamics and low LCL's are going to allow for the repeat night threat.
Title: Re: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 26, 2011, 11:12:16 AM
Looks like the sun is starting to peak out and the wind is blowing out of the south east here at stewart's ferry pike by Percy priest lake in Nashville
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 11:15:23 AM
MEG Update...
Quote
AS ACTIVE AS THE WEATHER HAS BEEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL DAYS... THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOUR WILL LIKELY BE THE 
MOST ACTIVE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS.   
 
MIDMORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MIDSOUTH SITUATED   
BETWEEN A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN IL AND A 
DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
OVER NORTH TX AND AR WAS LOW AMPLITUDE. ALONG WITH A BUBBLE HIGH 
FROM LAST NIGHT/S STORMS... EXPECT A BIT OF A QUIET PERIOD THROUGH 
APPROXIMATELY MIDAFTERNOON TODAY.   
 
BY LATE AFTERNOON... AS AN UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF. 12Z NAM SHOWED A COUPLED 250MB JET 
OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE 
DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH MS BY 00Z. THIS STRONG 
UPPER DIVERGENCE...ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING OVER NORTHERN AND WEST 
MS...SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA... SHOULD GREATLY ENHANCE THE 
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN PROGGED MUCAPES 
NEAR 4000 J/KG... DEVELOPMENT COULD BE RAPID LATE THIS AFTERNOON 
INTO EARLY EVENING. 
 
WITH UP TO THREE DISTINCT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE MEAN UPPER 
TROF THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY... WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THREE 
DISTINCT SURFACE REFLECTIONS...OR TRIPLE POINTS EJECTING INTO THE 
DELTA. THESE TRIPLE POINTS WILL BRING ENHANCED TORNADO THREATS... 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON... LATE EVENING... AND NEAR AND FOLLOWING 
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS 
SITUATION FOR THE MIDSOUTH.   
 
FORECAST UPDATE WAS SENT...WITH ENHANCED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND 
WORDING FOR TONIGHT.   
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 11:17:37 AM
Three different triple points? ::wow::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: dwagner88 on April 26, 2011, 11:24:50 AM
So far we haven't had a drop of rain here yet. That squall line fell to pieces on its way across the state. The HRRR wants to swing an MCS through here in about 6 hours.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 26, 2011, 11:29:49 AM
Three different triple points? ::wow::

What does that even mean? I'm pretty sure I've never heard that before...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 11:31:19 AM
What does that even mean? I'm pretty sure I've never heard that before...
Triple point is where the warm front...surface low pressure...and cold front come together. Tornado threat is usually maximized in these areas. Basically...high-res models are indicating 2...perhaps 3 triple point areas passing through the MEG area between this afternoon and tomorrow morning.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Woodvegas on April 26, 2011, 11:33:48 AM
Just hit 2.0 inches of rain here in Cannon County.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Woodvegas on April 26, 2011, 11:39:09 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 11:40:02 AM
SPC's new update says its basically a toss-up whether storms remain discrete or go linear in the MEG area tonight. Both scenarios required the high-risk upgrade though...with 30% tornado and 60% wind contours...its a pretty narrow High Risk...rather unusual...

They seemed to ignore the late afternoon/early evening threat MEG is worried about....said that should stay in Northern LA/Southern AR.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: marjl21 on April 26, 2011, 11:40:30 AM
Quote
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
  
   VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...THE SRN HALF OF
   AR...SOUTHWEST TN...AND NORTHWEST MS...
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
   NE TX/SE OK TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OK/EAST TX INTO MUCH
   OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND INTO PA/NY...
  
   ...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES
   AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY AND
   TONIGHT...
  
   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
   UNITED STATES...WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FEATURES TRACKING
   ACROSS THE NATION.  THE FIRST TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS
   AND OH VALLEY AND WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
   STATES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS PORTIONS OF NY/PA.
    ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER CO/NM AND WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE
   INTO OK/TX BY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MID MS
   VALLEY.
  
   ...OK/TX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY RETURNING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING
   ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NORTH
   AS SOUTHERN AR.  THE 12Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
   INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
   MID AFTERNOON.  BY THAT TIME...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED
   MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF
   3000-4000 J/KG AND A WEAKENED CAP OVER NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST
   LA/SOUTHWEST AR.  ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING.  LOW LEVEL WINDS
   WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
   OCCURS OVER TX...LEADING TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
   FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY.
  
   MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SECOND ROUND OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS
   DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHEAST OK BY EARLY
   EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR/LA
   /ROUGHLY THE SAME AXIS AS THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS/ AND WILL BE IN A
   MUCH MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR RISKS OF
   STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES.
  
   TONIGHT...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
   EASTERN AR/NORTHWEST MS/WEST TN NORTHWARD INTO IL/IND.  THERE IS
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS AS THEY
   PROGRESS INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT.  THE STORMS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE
   ACROSS AR WITH A RISK OF STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...OR THEY MAY GROW
   UPSCALE INTO A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO WITH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD
   SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN EITHER
   CASE...CONDITIONS ARE CLEARLY FAVORABLE A HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER
   EVENT WELL INTO THE NIGHT.  FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXTENDED THE
   HIGH RISK FARTHER EAST.
 
   ...TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...
   THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM IL/IND INTO MS/AL.  A BAND OF
   THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN SLOWLY
   DIMINISHING THIS MORNING...BUT IS LIKELY TO REJUVENATE BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  WIDESPREAD STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE CAPE WILL
   LEAD TO A RISK OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER A RELATIVELY
   BROAD AREA FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD INTO PA/NY.  DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
   AREAS OF THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED THROUGH THE DAY IN
   FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Woodvegas on April 26, 2011, 11:41:16 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 11:41:38 AM
Triple point is where the warm front...surface low pressure...and cold front come together. Tornado threat is usually maximized in these areas. Basically...high-res models are indicating 2...perhaps 3 triple point areas passing through the MEG area between this afternoon and tomorrow morning.

I didn't even know that was possible in the same system...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 11:42:50 AM
Yeah, I gotta' say.. I have not seen a 60% probability for the MEG area in a while.

(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif)

Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 11:45:58 AM
So three triple points...

Is that three possible positions OF the main triple point feature, or is that like saying three different SL positions, three different warm front positions, three different cold front positions?  Either way, it doesn't spell good news any way you slice it.

FWIW, Leland Statom (WTVF Nashville) showed a graphic this morning that highlighted a triple-point like feature (it wasn't identified as such) crossing the midstate.  He said tornadic potential (strong tornadoes possible...and I've never heard ANY met on 5 say those words) would be likely across the state as the feature passed.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 11:46:02 AM
I didn't even know that was possible in the same system...

A lot of it is mesoscale happenings...really the last one Wednesday...will be the primary synoptic scale system...

If I had to guess...based on what I've seen in the models...I think this does become a bow echo event tonight...but I don't want to discount the discrete threat and associated strong tornado potential that exists if they occur.

Still would hold to the late afternoon/evening scenario being mostly SW of the MEG area...and mostly hail/wind and isolated weak tornado threat if it makes it up here. Think SPC is right in this regard...out threat probably holds off until mid-evening (7-9PM) into the overnight. We'll have to watch trends very closely though as we go through the afternoon for rapid changes.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Farris in Madison on April 26, 2011, 11:50:15 AM
Has the NWS ever shown a 60% hatched area for tornadoes on the Day 1 outlook? I think 30% hatched is the most I've seen.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 11:50:32 AM
Well, It's looking better for chasing. I'll probably post up around South Haven/Extreme East Arkansas & the Germantown/Cordova area. We'll see how it goes.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 11:50:45 AM
What does it look like for Tipton?
All modes of severe weather are possible. Widespread/Significant winds...perhaps more intense than last night...are the most likely though. Best threat begins mid-late evening and will continue through Sunrise Wednesday or just after...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 11:51:22 AM
Has the NWS ever shown a 60% hatched area for tornadoes on the Day 1 outlook? I think 30% hatched is the most I've seen.

The only time a 60% tornado contour has been done was April 7, 2006...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 11:51:28 AM
Has the NWS ever shown a 60% hatched area for tornadoes on the Day 1 outlook? I think 30% hatched is the most I've seen.

I see 30% hatched for tornadoes, 60% for wind.....
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 26, 2011, 11:57:03 AM
Thank you Kevin, I am getting pretty nervous. Navy family renting with no basement or shelter. Both bathrooms are against exterior walls. Have two kids to protect. We go to the hallway outside of the bathroom and kids rooms with youngest in closet (he is the only one who fits ;) is this the best place for us?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 11:57:12 AM
The only time a 60% tornado contour has been done was April 7, 2006...

Oh yeah, I remember that one. It was around Georgia, tn, and alabama I believe.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 11:57:42 AM
(http://aviationweather.gov/adds/data/satellite/latest_MGM_vis.jpg)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 11:58:20 AM
Latest from Forbes....FWIW:

Quote
Wed Apr 27. Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in LA, south and east
AR, MS, AL, northwest GA, TN, KY, southeast MO, south IL, south and east IN,
OH, west and north-central PA, west half NY, west WV, west FL panhandle.
TORCON - 9 east MS, west-central and northwest AL; 8 middle TN; 7 east KY.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 11:59:54 AM
Thank you Kevin, I am getting pretty nervous. Navy family renting with no basement or shelter. Both bathrooms are against exterior walls. Have two kids to protect. We go to the hallway outside of the bathroom and kids rooms with youngest in closet (he is the only one who fits ;) is this the best place for us?

In a small, windowless, first floor, interior room like a closet or bathroom. The bathtub and commode are anchored directly into the ground, and sometimes are the only thing left in place after the tornado. Getting into the bathtub with a couch cushion over you gives you protection on all sides, as well as an extra anchor to the foundation. Plumbing pipes may or may not help hold the walls together, but all the extra framing that it takes to put a bathroom together may make a big difference. If there is no downstairs bathroom and the closets are all packed with "stuff," a hall may be the best shelter. Put as many walls as you can between yourself and the tornado. In a pinch, put a metal trash over as much of you as you can. It will keep some flying debris from injuring you..

I would also advise that all of you try to stay together, as in the same room if you could.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on April 26, 2011, 12:11:00 PM
Supercells tonight and tomorrow, then maybe a serial derecho...

If we could combine April 1974 and July 2003 and apply it over a very large area of the nation...this is what we have setting up tomorrow.  An apocalyptic 24 hours is unfolding.  We need to be prepared mentally, physically, emotionally, and spiritually for what could be the worst weather day of our generation, if not two generations...

Get all important documents together.  Call your insurance agents and make sure all information is accurate.  Make sure all insurance is up to date.  Get as much cash as you think you'll need for at least a few days.  Be prepared not to have power for a week or longer.

This is going to be bad, bad, bad.  And as bad as Tennessee is going to get it, I still think it will be twice as bad to our south and west.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 26, 2011, 12:17:03 PM
So, I havent seen any mention of comparison to "Super Tuesday".  People around my office have been bringing this up and thought I would drop this in and see what the "pros" think about this in comparison to that?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 26, 2011, 12:17:42 PM
We have a one story home. My question is the bathroom safer if it's on a exterior wall. Or our hallway Which has three rooms including bathroom around it. The closet is in hallway too but is real small. Also I make my kids wear helmets (they think I am crazy) lol
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 12:18:36 PM
So, I havent seen any mention of comparison to "Super Tuesday".  People around my office have been bringing this up and thought I would drop this in and see what the "pros" think about this in comparison to that?

If anything can be compared, I would think we'd want to look at another April event rather than one that occurred in February.  Just a thought.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: lyngo on April 26, 2011, 12:19:56 PM
Supercells tonight and tomorrow, then maybe a serial derecho...

If we could combine April 1974 and July 2003 and apply it over a very large area of the nation...this is what we have setting up tomorrow.  An apocalyptic 24 hours is unfolding.  We need to be prepared mentally, physically, emotionally, and spiritually for what could be the worst weather day of our generation, if not two generations...

Get all important documents together.  Call your insurance agents and make sure all information is accurate.  Make sure all insurance is up to date.  Get as much cash as you think you'll need for at least a few days.  Be prepared not to have power for a week or longer.

This is going to be bad, bad, bad.  And as bad as Tennessee is going to get it, I still think it will be twice as bad to our south and west.


Please stop.  People need to be prepared for this event (as in any other serious weather event) but your post is a bit over-the-top.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 12:25:53 PM

Please stop.  People need to be prepared for this event (as in any other serious weather event) but your post is a bit over-the-top.

+1000
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: DocB on April 26, 2011, 12:26:30 PM
In a small, windowless, first floor, interior room like a closet or bathroom. The bathtub and commode are anchored directly into the ground, and sometimes are the only thing left in place after the tornado.
Keep in mind, this might be true on homes built on concrete slabs - newer homes built on crawl spaces wouldn't guarantee solid anchoring. In that case, I'd say the deepest interior room, one with the most walls between you and the outside, the better.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 26, 2011, 12:27:02 PM
Triple point is where the warm front...surface low pressure...and cold front come together. Tornado threat is usually maximized in these areas. Basically...high-res models are indicating 2...perhaps 3 triple point areas passing through the MEG area between this afternoon and tomorrow morning.

Whoa, okay, thanks! Definitely doesn't sound good.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 12:27:13 PM
If there's any good news for Today SPC seems to think MEG's best threat is late night tonight in the form of MCS/bow echo activity...same thing we've been dealing with all year. As implied by the high risk upgrade and within their text...they think the discrete cell threat may stay more confined to the Arklatex.

I guess the big question is if anything can fire before mid-evening when a discrete mode seems more possible. Sme high-res models have tried to indicate that. HRRR in particular was ominous in a few early morning runs but has backed off that now and seems to be falling back to the linear threat later tonight. We'll have to see what happens.

Clearly the MEG area will probably escape the worst again based on the HIGH Today and MDT (Probably will go HIGH) Tomorrow. We'll see if there can be a discrete threat maintained longer this time around...however...that should ultimately determine whether we have any significant tornado threat.

MEG is having a teleconference at 11:00 am...


I'm quite underwhelmed by the potential for the Memphis metro...speaking only for myself and only for the immediate region of the metro.  I can see other parts of the MEG CWA having a larger event but Memphis proper seems perfectly placed to escape any big tornado threat at this time.  There could, of course, be a spin-up in the QLCS and there is an outside shot of discrete development, but this is not looking like a high-end threat or even like a moderate risk where there's a good shot for things to get cranked up to scary levels.  

All in all, I'm not excited by the potential which is, of course, actually a good thing for the metro.  Other areas of eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi...I do not feel nearly as confident about them not seeing a highly elevated tornado threat.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 12:27:25 PM
We have a one story home. My question is the bathroom safer if it's on a exterior wall. Or our hallway Which has three rooms including bathroom around it. The closet is in hallway too but is real small. Also I make my kids wear helmets (they think I am crazy) lol

When we rented a little house a few years back, the bathroom was on the exterior walls AND had a window.  We went into the interior hallway...PUTTING as many walls between you and the tornado.  I would always recommend the bathroom, except on the exterior wall.  The helmets are a GREAT idea.  If you have one, wear it as well.  Got a coffee table or something.  Depending on how old your kids are, maybe you could make it a game.  Hard to do with today's kids.  Sometimes, it calms the parent's down more.   :)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on April 26, 2011, 12:28:07 PM

Please stop.  People need to be prepared for this event (as in any other serious weather event) but your post is a bit over-the-top.
I would rather be over-the-top and be completely wrong than too conservative and have people not take the threat seriously.  I'd rather people not believe me than die.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 12:28:27 PM
So, I havent seen any mention of comparison to "Super Tuesday".  People around my office have been bringing this up and thought I would drop this in and see what the "pros" think about this in comparison to that?

I don't think the discrete/tornado threat is as high in this one as Super Tuesday. That one was pretty much a discrete cell outbreak for the MEG area with a severe but generally tame squall line to close. This I think will be exactly the opposite...a very intense bow echo threat with a few discrete segments or individual cells possible. I don't rule out the other happening...but High-Res guidance still strongly shows a linear mode for us overnight...and HRRR in particular hasn't given me any reason to doubt it yet all year...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 12:29:11 PM
You know, I've been thinking about this, and yeah, could we really be looking at repeating a 1000 year event two years in a row?  I keep dismissing it because of those odds, and hopefully those odds alone are enough to keep it from happening.  Yet I haven't heard much reassurance that it won't be like last year. 

It's probably not a once in 1,000 year event...just food for thought...people throw those estimates out there but they really have no idea as people haven't even been living in these parts for very long.  
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 12:30:51 PM
I would rather be over-the-top and be completely wrong than too conservative and have people not take the threat seriously.  I'd rather people not believe me than die.

People seem to be taking this threat seriously without the need for declaring the Apocalypse is upon us...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Susan on April 26, 2011, 12:31:15 PM
We have a one story home. My question is the bathroom safer if it's on a exterior wall. Or our hallway Which has three rooms including bathroom around it. The closet is in hallway too but is real small. Also I make my kids wear helmets (they think I am crazy) lol

I would also recommend downloading the free trail of GRLevel3 (I think it's 3?) from www.grlevelx.com to your computer.  It will give you the ability to better pinpoint a storm coming your way.  I take the laptop to the basement with us so I don't have to keep running upstairs to check the TV to see when all is clear.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 12:32:02 PM

I'm quite underwhelmed by the potential for the Memphis metro...speaking only for myself and only for the immediate region of the metro.  I can see other parts of the MEG CWA having a larger event but Memphis proper seems perfectly placed to escape any big tornado threat at this time.  There could, of course, be a spin-up in the QLCS and there is an outside shot of discrete development, but this is not looking like a high-end threat or even like a moderate risk where there's a good shot for things to get cranked up to scary levels.  

All in all, I'm not excited by the potential which is, of course, actually a good thing for the metro.  Other areas of eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi...I do not feel nearly as confident about them not seeing a highly elevated tornado threat.

I tend to agree with you but am not going to downplay the potential for something discrete to end up happening. The radar will tell the tale in the next 12 hours.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Susan on April 26, 2011, 12:33:04 PM
People seem to be taking this threat seriously without the need for declaring the Apocalypse is upon us...

I don't know about that.  Three workers at my house right now, none were aware of any storm threat for tomorrow.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 12:33:19 PM
MEG area will soon be upgraded to HIGH Risk....stay tuned for details...
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0585.gif)


Additionally...MEG has made the rare move of adding tornadoes to the ZFP for Tonight...

This figures...seeing this right after I've typed in about how I'm underwhelmed by the evidence.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 12:34:38 PM
I don't know about that.  Three workers at my house right now, none were aware of any storm threat for tomorrow.

Well...we can still inform them to be prepared for dangerous weather without going into hysterics...95% of the public wouldn't get a "1974 + 2003" scenario anyway...especially July 22, 2003. Most people outside Memphis (even many weather-savvy) have no clue that day ever happened...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on April 26, 2011, 12:34:46 PM
It's probably not a once in 1,000 year event...just food for thought...people throw those estimates out there but they really have no idea as people haven't even been living in these parts for very long.  
Well nature does keep a record of major anomalous events like floods and record heat.  We see temperature/climate records in trees and we can take samples of the ground, searching for silt, to determine how far back the silt was deposited and how much.

That being said, the x-year event terminology is simply a way of expressing the probability per mille of such an event happening in any given year.  A 1,000-year event has a 1 per mille chance of happening in any given year (or a tenth of one percent).  I think they say it that way so as not to confuse the public with jargon.

And around the people I work with, and talk to on a daily basis, they don't seem to have the same sense of urgency...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 26, 2011, 12:34:51 PM
Sun breaking out here in HSV....
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 12:37:08 PM
12 pm surface obs:
Quote
TENNESSEE HOURLY STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

TNZ002-004-019-021-049-052-054-088>092-261800-
WEST TENNESSEE

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
MEMPHIS INTL   CLOUDY    75  66  73 S18G33    29.66F
NWS MEMPHIS      N/A     76 N/A N/A MISG        N/A
JACKSON        MOSUNNY   75  68  78 S13       29.67F
DYERSBURG      NOT AVBL
PARIS          CLOUDY    69  63  81 S14       29.67F
SAVANNAH       MOSUNNY   71  64  78 S12       29.71
$$

TNZ008-025-027-028-033-062-065-066-261800-
NORTH MIDDLE TENNESSEE

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
NASHVILLE      CLOUDY    63  58  83 S12       29.77R
CROSSVILLE     LGT RAIN  58  56  93 SE3       29.88F
$$

TNZ061-075-076-078-094-096-097-261800-
SOUTH MIDDLE TENNESSEE

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
$$

TNZ017-018-042-046-047-261800-
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
TRI CITIES     PTSUNNY   81  54  39 S18G26    29.87F
$$

TNZ012-013-036-069-073-074-261800-
CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEE

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
KNOXVILLE      PTSUNNY   81  57  43 SW22      29.83F
OAK RIDGE      CLOUDY    77  58  51 S5G18     29.85F
$$

TNZ083-085-099-261800-
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CHATTANOOGA    CLOUDY    75  62  64 S13G20    29.85S
$$

SKY/WX REPORTED AS FAIR MEANS FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW
12 THOUSAND FEET.


Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 12:38:28 PM
And around the people I work with, and talk to on a daily basis, they don't seem to have the same sense of urgency...

Quote from: Susan
I don't know about that.  Three workers at my house right now, none were aware of any storm threat for tomorrow.


Unfortunately this is part of the reason why we hold the #1 spot for tornado related deaths.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: marjl21 on April 26, 2011, 12:39:15 PM
Thoughts on 15Z HRRR?  Seems to be showing discrete cells moving through E AR, SW TN, and NW MS between 7-9PM

(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/HRRR1.png)

(http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t22/marjl21/HRRR2.png)

Then it shows a squall line organizing in central AR around midnight.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: ultra mag on April 26, 2011, 12:40:38 PM
 Sun breaking out here as well.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 12:41:06 PM
Its possible. HRRR indicated this in the early morning runs...backed off...and has now come back to the idea. We'll have to watch that very closely...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: ultra mag on April 26, 2011, 12:42:18 PM
 Anyone have any idea gow to get gr3 radar to run on a mac?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 12:42:58 PM
MEG area will soon be upgraded to HIGH Risk....stay tuned for details...
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0585.gif)


Additionally...MEG has made the rare move of adding tornadoes to the ZFP for Tonight...

This figures...seeing this right after I've typed in about how I'm underwhelmed by the evidence.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 26, 2011, 12:43:28 PM
What about people like me who only have the interior hallway that leads directly into the kitchen? Are we safer going into the exterior bathroom or staying in the hallway with possibly kitchen knives flying at us?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 12:44:01 PM
FYI...since many people like to joke about this (though of course it truly means nothing)...Jim Cantore has changed his plans. He originally planned to go to Arkadelphia AR for Today's storm coverage but has flown into Memphis and has decided to stay here instead. He'll be doing live shots beginning this afternoon...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 12:44:25 PM
(http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/full/2011042614/cref_sfc_f07.png)

(http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/full/2011042614/cref_sfc_f08.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 12:44:44 PM
Anyone have any idea gow to get gr3 radar to run on a mac?

Parallels or vmware fusion.  There are some other products like GR3 that run natively on mac.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on April 26, 2011, 12:45:00 PM
Anyone have any idea gow to get gr3 radar to run on a mac?
With an emulator, yes.  I can run GRLevelX on my Ubuntu system with WINE, and I'm sure with VMWare or something similar, you can do the same on the Mac.

And it looks like bugalou beat me to the punch by a few seconds lol
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 12:46:16 PM
What about people like me who only have the interior hallway that leads directly into the kitchen? Are we safer going into the exterior bathroom or staying in the hallway with possibly kitchen knives flying at us?

Do you have a small closet you and your family can fit in? That would probably be the best option. Otherwise...hallway is okay...its never a bad idea to temporarily move/store things like knives away in an area that wouldn't be in a direct path to fly at you just in case the worst happens.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bigalpha on April 26, 2011, 12:47:28 PM
Glad to see that my area will most likely escape the worst that this system has to offer. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 12:48:46 PM
Do you have a small closes you and your family can fit in? That would probably be the best option. Otherwise...hallway is okay...its never a bad idea to temporarily move/store things like knives away in an area that wouldn't be in a direct path to fly at you just in case the worst happens.

We usually camp out in the closet under the stair case (although my idiot self is usually on the back porch watching  ::shrug:: ) as it is about in the middle of the house.  I have also heard though the stair case is structurally weak so I maybe doing it completely wrong.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: ultra mag on April 26, 2011, 12:49:36 PM
thanks
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on April 26, 2011, 12:51:14 PM
Glad to see that my area will most likely escape the worst that this system has to offer. 
Eh...don't count your chickens just yet...I think so, but you never know...besides, wherever you are in this area, it will get ugly; at this time, it's like the difference between Lindsay Lohan and Mike Tyson, both ugly, but in different ways, and one being more so on an absolute basis.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 12:52:04 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day2otlk_20110426_1730_prt.gif)
Quote
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
  
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
   EASTERN INDIANA...MUCH OF OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WEST
   VIRGINIA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST
   GEORGIA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...
   MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING OVER THE
   CENTRAL U.S...WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.  AS IT DOES...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE
   ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT...AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   LIFTS OUT OF ITS BASE...AND GRADUALLY PIVOTS AROUND THE EASTERN
   PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
   BY STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW FIELDS IN THE WARM SECTOR
   OF A SURFACE CYCLONE PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEAST OF
   THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROBABLY WILL
   INCLUDE A 90-100 KT 500 MB JET CORE NOSING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
   OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
  
   VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THIS
   CYCLOGENESIS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION
   ...WHICH COULD BE EXTENSIVE AND ONGOING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
   RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
   CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING EAST OF THE
   MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  IF THIS VERIFIES...IT IS
   UNCERTAIN WHAT INFLUENCE IT WILL HAVE ON SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.  THIS
   UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK PROBABILITIES
   AT THE PRESENT TIME.  HOWEVER...MOST OTHER INDICATIONS ARE STRONGLY
   SUGGESTIVE THAT A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING
   TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE
   APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG
   TORNADOES...AND ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS.
  
   ...EASTERN U.S...
   IN AREAS NOT IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...
   PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER A BROAD AREA EAST OF THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS...AND PERHAPS EAST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO
   2000 J/KG WITH SURFACE HEATING.  IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
   CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE CLOCKWISE
   CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A BROAD 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC SUPERCELL THREAT COULD BE
   ONGOING OR RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WESTERN/MIDDLE
   TENNESSEE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
   LARGELY CONTINGENT ON EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  IF AN
   LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...AN
   EXPANSIVE SURFACE COLD POOL COULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION AND MITIGATE
   THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
  
   REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION AND THE
   ASSOCIATED COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON TO
   SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF
   STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.  AND
   THIS PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...IN THE WARM SECTOR
   ...AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
   SURFACE LOW.  AS THIS FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
   ...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE COULD
   OCCUR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPREADING EAST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 26, 2011, 12:52:28 PM
FYI...since many people like to joke about this (though of course it truly means nothing)...Jim Cantore has changed his plans. He originally planned to go to Arkadelphia AR for Today's storm coverage but has flown into Memphis and has decided to stay here instead. He'll be doing live shots beginning this afternoon...

Saw that earlier, and now I just saw this on Twitter:

RT @EricFisherTWC: Change of plans - going to Memphis. @JimCantore heading to #Arkansas. We've got you covered in both locations...be safe!

Nice to see the Cantore hype making its way into social media today. Dude loves him some him.  ;D

Oh well...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 12:52:45 PM
Oh man!! Tomorrow is looking like a pretty huge day.

(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif)

(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on April 26, 2011, 12:53:59 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day2otlk_20110426_1730_prt.gif)
That's one mean looking outlook right there...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 26, 2011, 12:56:27 PM
Parallels or vmware fusion.  There are some other products like GR3 that run natively on mac.

Yep... and RadarScope was just released for the mac a couple days ago.  It's in the Mac App Store.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 26, 2011, 12:56:37 PM
SIAP: Video of one of the Arkansas tornadoes from last night.

http://arkansasmatters.com/fulltext/?nxd_id=416577

I know it's hard to say they got lucky over there given the fact that lives were lost and some homes and businesses were destroyed, but this thing got dangerously close to Little Rock proper. We really, really dodged a bullet all things considered. About 10-15 miles farther southeast with its placement - if that much - and this wedge tornado tears straight through Little Rock and North Little Rock.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 12:56:57 PM
I tend to agree with you but am not going to downplay the potential for something discrete to end up happening. The radar will tell the tale in the next 12 hours.

BTW...I will not downplay that there is high-end potential out there.  I do think there's an outside shot of cells remaining discrete and it being a very bad event for the Memphis metro...and I would emphatically tell everyone to pay close attention to the weather for this period...but the outside shot (which, if I had to stick a number on it...would be about 20%) is somewhat low from a strictly probablistic standpoint but it won't mean much the 1 in 5 times we draw the short end of the stick.  So, the potential is there but my main point was that it's difficult for me to get worked up about what looks like a low probability of occurence.

What has struck me as odd since seeing the SPC upgrade is that they believe that the area deserved High Risk regardless of whether storms went linear or stayed discrete.  I can't recall them ever issuing a high-risk where the only higher risk factors were wind/hail.  

The other thing that surprised me were the 30% hatched tornado probs which I was guessing would be lower (like I said, probably about 20% and hatched is what I was thinking when typing).  

Anyway, these guys are smarter than me and I know that they do not issue high risk very often, but I can't help feeling that we were sort of just lumped in based on a conditional probability (the "if this, then that" type of thing).  I somehow doubt we would be in a high-risk if there weren't a high risk already out there for the Arklatex.  I hope I'm wrong...no, I hope I'm right.   :D
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 12:58:25 PM
FYI...since many people like to joke about this (though of course it truly means nothing)...Jim Cantore has changed his plans. He originally planned to go to Arkadelphia AR for Today's storm coverage but has flown into Memphis and has decided to stay here instead. He'll be doing live shots beginning this afternoon...

Cantore knows that, if this thing busts, Beale Street is a much more viable option than whatever's going on in Arkadelphia. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 12:58:47 PM
SIAP: Video of one of the Arkansas tornadoes from last night.

http://arkansasmatters.com/fulltext/?nxd_id=416577

Thanks for that link, I saw it last night but forgot what it was.

Also, I saw some damage pictures that I will try to post up. Looking EF-5ish to me right now for Vilonia.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 01:01:33 PM
Oh man!! Tomorrow is looking like a pretty huge day.



MDT looks like in outline of 1974...not likely to happen, but it's a little eerie. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 26, 2011, 01:03:27 PM
BTW...I will not downplay that there is high-end potential out there.  I do think there's an outside shot of cells remaining discrete and it being a very bad event for the Memphis metro...and I would emphatically tell everyone to pay close attention to the weather for this period...but the outside shot (which, if I had to stick a number on it...would be about 20%) is somewhat low from a strictly probablistic standpoint but it won't mean much the 1 in 5 times we draw the short end of the stick.  So, the potential is there but my main point was that it's difficult for me to get worked up about what looks like a low probability of occurence.

What has struck me as odd since seeing the SPC upgrade is that they believe that the area deserved High Risk regardless of whether storms went linear or stayed discrete.  I can't recall them ever issuing a high-risk where the only higher risk factors were wind/hail.  

The other thing that surprised me were the 30% hatched tornado probs which I was guessing would be lower (like I said, probably about 20% and hatched is what I was thinking when typing).  

Anyway, these guys are smarter than me and I know that they do not issue high risk very often, but I can't help feeling that we were sort of just lumped in based on a conditional probability (the "if this, then that" type of thing).  I somehow doubt we would be in a high-risk if there weren't a high risk already out there for the Arklatex.  I hope I'm wrong...no, I hope I'm right.   :D

They may fear a replay of what happened last night in Western and Central AR, only translated east and maybe further south (possibly including the area between Shreveport/Pine Bluff/Memphis. Last night, we didn't have a true outbreak of supercells in AR in the sense that multiple long-lived lone cells broke out without any support from or association with a line behind them - at least not after around 7pm or so. Some occurred before the line completely caught up with them, but the Vilonia storm in particular was very close to the approaching QLCS. Definitely had some distinction, but it wasn't a classic rogue supercell independent of any other convection by any means - like the one that occurred south of Dallas during the late afternoon.

I could definitely see that playing out again where we don't necessarily get a major outbreak of massive supercells in the metro like we saw on Super Tuesday, but we have a few storms pop in advance of a line and we play the waiting game to see if the line and outflow can catch up with our eventually outpace the convection. If anything can get going, even near a bowing line, we could be in some trouble.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 01:03:57 PM
MDT looks like in outline of 1974...not likely to happen, but it's a little eerie. 

Exactly what I was thinking...

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/Super_Outbreak_Map.PNG/494px-Super_Outbreak_Map.PNG)
--
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 01:07:24 PM
Please adjust your weather radios if necessary...
Quote
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NOAA WEATHER RADIO KHA 46 BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.45
MHZ AT VALE TENNESSEE IS EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES DUE
TO LAST NIGHTS STORMS. EVERY EFFORT IS BEING MADE TO RESTORE THE
TRANSMITTER TO OPERATIONAL STATUS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 01:12:31 PM
Please adjust your weather radios if necessary...

KHA46 is non-operation at the moment, also WWH37 in Clarksville has a very poor signal according to the NWS
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 01:20:40 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0589.gif)
Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHERN
   LA/SOUTHERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
   
   VALID 261811Z - 262015Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX AND INTO
   SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR. A RELATIVELY LONG LEAD
   TIME/DURATION PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCH
   WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY MID AFTERNOON.
   
   WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...EAST OF A NEAR I-35 CENTRAL TX
   DRYLINE...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A SLOW NORTHWARD-RETURNING
   SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH DFW
   METRO INTO SOUTHERN AR...HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY
   UNSTABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF LITTLE CINH. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT OF
   SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MIDDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER JET
   STREAK APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
   LIKELY-ASSOCIATED DEEP MIXED CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT NOW EVIDENT
   ACROSS EASTERN NM/NORTHWEST TX PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
   INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD ATOP THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
   WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING LARGE
   HAIL/TORNADO THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOWER
   TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACCENTUATE THE RISK OF STRONG
   TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY/ADJACENT FAR
   SOUTHEAST OK.
   
Title: Re: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: SKEW-TIM on April 26, 2011, 01:25:05 PM
I've not seen any watches or warnings issued yet?
Title: Re: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 01:27:30 PM
I've not seen any watches or warnings issued yet?

Two Severe t-storm watches have been issued for WV,VA,PA, and NY.......so far.  THAT, will change.
Title: Re: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 01:29:06 PM
 ::pirate::
I've not seen any watches or warnings issued yet?

Seeing some possible storms starting to fire near Murfreesburo, AR. We'll see if it holds together. PDS Watch will also be issued for that area.
Title: Re: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 01:31:18 PM
::pirate::
Seeing some possible storms starting to fire near Murfreesburo. We'll see if it holds together. PDS Watch will also be issued for that area.

Murfreesboro, Arkansas, I assume you mean?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 01:32:29 PM
Yessir, thought I added AR* to that, don't know what happened to it.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 01:34:50 PM
Yessir.

Just making sure... when most around here hear "Murfreesboro," we think the one in TN.  But, I didn't see anything on radar anywhere near the M'boro here.  ;)

I do see some showers popping up west of Murfreesboro, AR, though.
Title: Re: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 01:38:42 PM
I've not seen any watches or warnings issued yet?

You've got to preheat the oven properly before cooking.  As a matter of fact, I was just thinking that I am starting to find it most troublesome that we don't have anything going yet.  This is starting to reek of "very bad" for someone...hopefully not for any of us here. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: ultra mag on April 26, 2011, 01:40:34 PM
 I was wondering are things not firing as quick as we thought  ?And if not does how does this affect us in west tn.
Title: Re: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 01:44:56 PM
You've got to preheat the oven properly before cooking.  As a matter of fact, I was just thinking that I am starting to find it most troublesome that we don't have anything going yet.  This is starting to reek of "very bad" for someone...hopefully not for any of us here. 

Yeah, definitely. Also, the clouds are breaky, lots of blue sky though. And the temperature is about 77, and the dew points are at 70.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 01:48:27 PM
I was wondering are things not firing as quick as we thought  ?And if not does how does this affect us in west tn.

West TN/MEG is looking more and more favourable for discrete/semi-discrete development at the moment. Rapid development of storms should start around 4. So yeah, we'll see what happens.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: ultra mag on April 26, 2011, 01:49:47 PM
 Thanks for the information.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Brian on April 26, 2011, 01:50:34 PM
regarding the "safe place"; does it matter which way tornadoes rotate?  ie. if the rotate clockwise - would it be best to place oneself on the wall farthest to the left as you're facing the tornado such that when it hits, the tornado exerts most of its energy "peeling" away the home from right-to-left as it passes potentially leaving the victim of it's furious anger unharmed?

or?   ::shrug::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 01:52:56 PM
regarding the "safe place"; does it matter which way tornadoes rotate?  ie. if the rotate clockwise - would it be best to place oneself on the wall farthest to the left as you're facing the tornado such that when it hits, the tornado exerts most of its energy "peeling" away the home from right-to-left as it passes potentially leaving the victim of it's furious anger unharmed?

or?   ::shrug::

No...no difference that has been scientifically found. Just put as many walls between you and outside as you possibly can...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 01:53:18 PM
regarding the "safe place"; does it matter which way tornadoes rotate?  ie. if the rotate clockwise - would it be best to place oneself on the wall farthest to the left as you're facing the tornado such that when it hits, the tornado exerts most of its energy "peeling" away the home from right-to-left as it passes potentially leaving the victim of it's furious anger unharmed?

or?   ::shrug::

Umm....tornadoes in the northern hemisphere almost ALWAYS rotate counter-clockwise.  So, to answer your question, no it matters not which way it rotates or which wall you position yourself on.

EDIT:  Thanks, Kevin.   ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 01:54:02 PM
Umm....tornadoes in the northern hemisphere ALWAYS rotate counter-clockwise.  So, to answer your question, no it matters not which way it rotates or which wall you position yourself on.

You can have anti-cyclonic tornadoes...they are rare (and almost always weak)...but can happen
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 26, 2011, 01:54:54 PM
regarding the "safe place"; does it matter which way tornadoes rotate?  ie. if the rotate clockwise - would it be best to place oneself on the wall farthest to the left as you're facing the tornado such that when it hits, the tornado exerts most of its energy "peeling" away the home from right-to-left as it passes potentially leaving the victim of it's furious anger unharmed?

or?   ::shrug::

I think the "safe place" discussion is getting a bit silly and should be moved out to its own thread. Safe places are very important, but which side of your dwelling the safe place is located, probably doesnt really matter, as long as you have more than one wall between you and the elements.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 01:55:22 PM
Whoa.

(http://i55.tinypic.com/zwxag.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 01:56:32 PM
Whoa, just as I suspected.

(http://i55.tinypic.com/zwxag.png)

This post didn't give you a clue?   ;D

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2890.msg128851.html#msg128851
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Susan on April 26, 2011, 01:56:49 PM
regarding the "safe place"; does it matter which way tornadoes rotate?  ie. if the rotate clockwise - would it be best to place oneself on the wall farthest to the left as you're facing the tornado such that when it hits, the tornado exerts most of its energy "peeling" away the home from right-to-left as it passes potentially leaving the victim of it's furious anger unharmed?

or?   ::shrug::

From the CDC - "At Home

Pick a place in the home where family members can gather if a tornado is headed your way. One basic rule is AVOID WINDOWS. An exploding window can injure or kill.

The safest place in the home is the interior part of a basement. If there is no basement, go to an inside room, without windows, on the lowest floor. This could be a center hallway, bathroom, or closet.

For added protection, get under something sturdy such as a heavy table or workbench. If possible, cover your body with a blanket, sleeping bag, or mattress, and protect your head with anything available--even your hands. Avoid taking shelter where there are heavy objects, such as pianos or refrigerators, on the area of floor that is directly above you. They could fall though the floor if the tornado strikes your house."
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 01:57:16 PM
In reference to PDS Tornado Watch 215, I've never seen probs that high.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 01:57:56 PM
Yes...I do think we need to begin on focusing on the actual threat...

If you have any additional questions about preparedness...check here...this has plenty of information about preparing for all severe weather types...

http://www.weather.gov/om/severeweather/index.shtml
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 01:58:41 PM
This post didn't give you a clue?   ;D

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2890.msg128851.html#msg128851

He might have been referencing the probabilty table? Anyway, here it is:
Quote
TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

WT 0215 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES         :  90%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  80%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          : >95%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 600
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 01:59:10 PM
...Plus...Tornado watches within a HIGH Risk must ALWAYS be PDS...that is an SPC Mandate...

Get ready for ours later...hopefully it goes better than last night's did...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 02:00:34 PM
I was wondering are things not firing as quick as we thought  ?And if not does how does this affect us in west tn.

Although I still remain a conservative view with regards to southwest TN, my gut would say that it is not good.  

The longer it takes for stuff to develop, the less time we will have for the linear forcing mechanisms to take hold.

There is so much energy out there, that it's hard to see this being a situation where nothing develops and all the guidance would have to be wrong for this to occur.  
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 02:00:58 PM
This post didn't give you a clue?   ;D

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2890.msg128851.html#msg128851

I was talking about the 6 straight highs.  ;)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 02:01:55 PM
...Plus...Tornado watches within a HIGH Risk must ALWAYS be PDS...that is an SPC Mandate...

Get ready for ours later...hopefully it goes better than last night's did...

Maybe, just maybe.  :P
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: KG4GKE on April 26, 2011, 02:07:09 PM
regarding the "safe place"; does it matter which way tornadoes rotate?  ie. if the rotate clockwise - would it be best to place oneself on the wall farthest to the left as you're facing the tornado such that when it hits, the tornado exerts most of its energy "peeling" away the home from right-to-left as it passes potentially leaving the victim of it's furious anger unharmed?

or?   ::shrug::

The June 8, 1966 Topeka, Kansas (my hometown) tornado put that idea to rest pretty firmly. Before that time, people were advised to seek the southwest corner of the  building they were in. Didn't matter house, gym, church, etc. as long as it was the SW corner. My parents remember that practice still in place from a long time ago. Then, June 8 happened, in an area of Topeka where all the SW corners of the buildings had walk-out basements. (Read: terrible place for tornado protection)

Immediately after that event, the recommendation was for people to go to the NE corner. In a way, good example of opposite thinking: if the NE corner is farther away and opposite of the SW corner, then it must reason that it would be safer. Turned out it wasn't after several examples of damage and injuries to various places/people (don't have specific examples, but know that they are out there), and then the thinking went to central parts of the structure, with the most building between you and the outside areas.

Beyond all these examples, there's the very basic fact of how much larger even a medium sized tornado is than the typical home dwelling. Difficult to justify certain sections of a building (minus the center) as being safest when the funnel/vortex is so much bigger.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:10:29 PM
Interesting to note the relatively "cool" pocket over Central/NE AR where overcast conditions have held all day. It affected the LZK 18z sounding pretty strongly...CAPE was low (1000) with a convective temperature of 78 that may not be reached there or to the NE at this point.'

Much warmer where the sun peaked through to the S/E of there...but question is will anything fire early. Still working with relatively weak low-level shear and veered profiles though...so I still don't know if there's a big tornado threat before evening if something does pop up. Little Rock sounding below...

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11042618_OBS/LZK.gif)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 02:11:05 PM


Get ready for ours later...hopefully it goes better than last night's did...

I can understand the hoping and it's exciting and all from a weather standpoint and I'll likely get real excited if things start popping in our area...but anytime I get real close, such as on Super Tues., I find myself violently retracting my initial hoping for some action.  It was very scary to see an actual large funnel cloud rotating up there about to go right over my house.  I remember running inside to tell my wife to put her head between the wall and the toilet in the bathroom b/c the toilet would break the fall of the collapsing roof and I remember quickly thinking about the probability of my own immenent death and putting it at about 10%.  I was probably way too high in my estimates at the time, but it was intensely scary because I knew exactly what I'd seen and I knew that all it had to do was touch down.  
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: KG4GKE on April 26, 2011, 02:11:16 PM
Although I still remain a conservative view with regards to southwest TN, my gut would say that it is not good.  

The longer it takes for stuff to develop, the less time we will have for the linear forcing mechanisms to take hold.

There is so much energy out there, that it's hard to see this being a situation where nothing develops and all the guidance would have to be wrong for this to occur.  

Sadly agreed (would rather not see something like this unfold, if possible). Approaching daytime heating maximum. Then, I think we'll see more trouble just beginning. We haven't seen curtain-up on this yet.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:13:15 PM
Will also add we'll need to watch for differential heating boundaries between where temperatures sharply go from upper 60s to upper 70s. These may localize back winds and also be a trigger mechanism...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:13:56 PM
I can understand the hoping and it's exciting and all from a weather standpoint and I'll likely get real excited if things start popping in our area...but anytime I get real close, such as on Super Tues., I find myself violently retracting my initial hoping for some action.  It was very scary to see an actual large funnel cloud rotating up there about to go right over my house.  I remember running inside to tell my wife to put her head between the wall and the toilet in the bathroom b/c the toilet would break the fall of the collapsing roof and I remember quickly thinking about the probability of my own immenent death and putting it at about 10%.  I was probably way too high in my estimates at the time, but it was intensely scary because I knew exactly what I'd seen and I knew that all it had to do was touch down.  

Well I certainly don't want the really bad stuff myself. I would personally hope for a bust too...but from a verification standpoint is where my statement was coming from...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Ratchet_33 on April 26, 2011, 02:16:46 PM
…MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS





Copied that quote from alabamawx.com..they got some VERY intresting blogs on there about tomorrows event
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:16:52 PM
HRRR had/has convection exploding that would affect us through early evening within this hour across South AR. We'll see if it happens...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:18:31 PM
FWIW...LZK is reporting EF2 damage in Vilonia AR so far...survey is not completed yet...this is per KATV...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 02:21:45 PM
FWIW...LZK is reporting EF2 damage in Vilonia AR so far...survey is not completed yet...this is per KATV...


EF2?! Wow. I was thinking more EF4-5. Especially with a possible 3 mile wide damage path in some areas?!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:22:15 PM
Perhaps starting to see some cumulus congestus going between Little Rock and Pine Bluff...this is along the differential heating boundary referenced earlier...still early...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 02:23:45 PM
Perhaps starting to see some cumulus congestus going between Little Rock and Pine Bluff...this is along the differential heating boundary referenced earlier...still early...

(http://aviationweather.gov/adds/data/satellite/20110426_1910_LIT_vis.jpg)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:24:29 PM
Cantore is going to Arkadelphia after all...already at Little Rock...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bigalpha on April 26, 2011, 02:24:49 PM
So I would like to recap what I've read to see if I'm tracking:

1.  The storms will be moving from AR/TX towards us.

2.  At this point, the main threat looks to be S and W of BNA - although things may get nasty in a hurry in this whole area

3.  The longer that something doesn't happen during the daytime probably means that when the storms roll through later this evening, they will be more likely to be a discrete cell that has more of a tendency of dropping TORs than a line of storms would be.  This is due to increasing temps/dewpoints which lead to increasing instability.

4.  Things may not get popping until rush hour time for Middle TN.

5.  Don't look through the window as the TOR approaches your house.

On a side note: I'll be trekking to BNA tonight around 1700 so I may have a fun show on the way back home.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 02:26:30 PM
So I would like to recap what I've read to see if I'm tracking:

1.  The storms will be moving from AR/TX towards us.

2.  At this point, the main threat looks to be S and W of BNA - although things may get nasty in a hurry in this whole area

3.  The longer that something doesn't happen during the daytime probably means that when the storms roll through later this evening, they will be more likely to be a discrete cell that has more of a tendency of dropping TORs than a line of storms would be.  This is due to increasing temps/dewpoints which lead to increasing instability.

4.  Things may not get popping until rush hour time for Middle TN.

5.  Don't look through the window as the TOR approaches your house.

On a side note: I'll be trekking to BNA tonight around 1700 so I may have a fun show on the way back home.

And that's just for today.  Tomorrow has the potential to be very bad for someone.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bigalpha on April 26, 2011, 02:28:25 PM
Sheesh - I didn't realize that this even was for tonight/tomorrow.  I thought it was for last night/today.

Are the same conditions likely to be prevalent tomorrow as well?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 02:28:32 PM
Storms firing north east of Pine Bluff right now.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:28:36 PM
Convection is definitely trying to go in this area...NNE of Pine Bluff...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 02:29:53 PM
HRRR had/has convection exploding that would affect us through early evening within this hour across South AR. We'll see if it happens...

Noticing convection starting to pop on last few scans... I believe it's beginning.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 02:30:19 PM
Convection is definitely trying to go in this area...NNE of Pine Bluff...

I believe describing the development as "explosive" will be an understatement....
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 02:31:22 PM
Are the same conditions likely to be prevalent tomorrow as well?

Much worse for us in Middle TN tomorrow.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 02:31:58 PM
Sheesh - I didn't realize that this even was for tonight/tomorrow.  I thought it was for last night/today.

Are the same conditions likely to be prevalent tomorrow as well?

Here is my write-up concerning tomorrow's event...

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2890.msg128721.html#msg128721
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 02:32:24 PM
Noticing convection starting to pop on last few scans... I believe it's beginning.

Better be expanding that watch box I think.     ::lookaround::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 02:33:46 PM
(http://aviationweather.gov/adds/data/satellite/latest_MGM_vis.jpg)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 02:34:14 PM
Wow, talk about storms firing up within 20 minutes. Good afternoon everyone.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 26, 2011, 02:34:29 PM
Wont be long before "Game On" in Lonoke/Prairie/Monroe County... Thats definitely some rapid development, on a small scale (so far).
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 02:35:04 PM
Convection is definitely trying to go in this area...NNE of Pine Bluff...

Not that it pertains to TN, but the first storm might be firing south of Dallas in TX.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 26, 2011, 02:36:07 PM
Better be expanding that watch box I think.     ::lookaround::

Yep.

I've been focused on a shower near Hope, AR for the last few minutes, but every time I refresh my radar the convection near Pine Bluff pops more.

My thinking earlier was that the corridor between Shreveport/Pine Bluff/Memphis might be a good area for development (and that certainly goes along with what the SPC seems to be thinking, even though they haven't pulled the trigger in the northeastern third of that region yet near MEG.)

Even here in Memphis the sky is beginning to look a bit more ominous. I know that's silly to say, but you just get the feeling we're primed for something interesting with the way the cloud cover looks. With so much rain last night, the atmosphere might just now be recovering to the point where we see things pop in a hurry.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: shaft311 on April 26, 2011, 02:36:11 PM
I've never really felt the need to do this, but given the short notice, I am going to go around with a digital camera after I get off work and take pictures of all of my property, house, garage, inside and out, and try to get most of my possessions in these pictures.  In case the SHTF tomorrow, I'll have some inventory of what to give to the insurance company.  I'll be at work downtown in a safe building, so I'm not worried about myself, but if I get home and my house is gone, it would be nice to have some proof of what I owned.  I am also going to bring my home PC backup drives to work with me tomorrow.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 02:36:21 PM
Already some hail markers on those storms northeast of Pine Bluff, AR.

This isn't going to take long...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 02:37:35 PM
Nope cloud tops exploding.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:38:09 PM
One NNE of Pine Bluff is weakly rotating...not tornadic (or severe) yet IMO...it may not be long though.

The next 15-30 minutes is crucial. Convection will always do one of two things in these situations...fall apart once it hits a level of CIN as it grows taller...and the threat disappears for the meantime...or we'll have an outright explosion...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 02:39:17 PM
Explosive?  Umm....yes.  Here are three consecutive GR3 radar scans showing the tops of the cells around Pine Bluff...

(http://i56.tinypic.com/szicn9.png)

(http://i56.tinypic.com/2cmrqky.png)

(http://i51.tinypic.com/2h3ptoz.png)

That's roughly 15-20kft in less than 10 minutes?   ::wow:: ::wow::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 02:39:50 PM
Not that it pertains to TN, but the first storm might be firing south of Dallas in TX.

Look toward East Arkansas, bud.

But the storm near Dallas is looking pretty good.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 02:40:22 PM
Yep......



Even here in Memphis the sky is beginning to look a bit more ominous. I know that's silly to say, but you just get the feeling we're primed for something interesting with the way the cloud cover looks. With so much rain last night, the atmosphere might just now be recovering to the point where we see things pop in a hurry.

It's not silly...I always notice the sky too.  There's a "look" to it.  Noticed it here this morning...   ::lookaround::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 02:41:37 PM
Explosive?  Umm....yes.  Here are three consecutive GR3 radar scans showing the tops of the cells around Pine Bluff...

That's roughly 15-20kft in less than 10 minutes?   ::wow:: ::wow::

I was looking at that too. Rapid, rapid development.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 02:41:44 PM
I would suspect a SVR on that rear storm momentarily......
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: BrandonAL on April 26, 2011, 02:42:19 PM
I've never really felt the need to do this, but given the short notice, I am going to go around with a digital camera after I get off work and take pictures of all of my property, house, garage, inside and out, and try to get most of my possessions in these pictures.  In case the SHTF tomorrow, I'll have some inventory of what to give to the insurance company.  I'll be at work downtown in a safe building, so I'm not worried about myself, but if I get home and my house is gone, it would be nice to have some proof of what I owned.  I am also going to bring my home PC backup drives to work with me tomorrow.

You know, I was thinking about doing the same thing when I get home this evening.  The only difference is I do not feel safe in my office building and as bad as it sounds, severe weather plans are never discussed here.  I have already made a plan for myself and know where I am headed in the building tomorrow if the situation warrants taking cover!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:43:01 PM
I would suspect a SVR on that rear storm momentarily......

So far...the core is relatively weak. GR2Analyst is triggering only a 1/2" hail potential...most of the reflectivity is staying below the -20c line...which is about 20kft. Of course that could change at any moment...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 26, 2011, 02:43:44 PM
It's not silly...I always notice the sky too.  There's a "look" to it.  Noticed it here this morning...   ::lookaround::

Glad I'm not the only crazy one!  8)

About an hour ago we had a lower cloud deck and it almost had the look and feel of a winter day outside - now....sun is peeking through again, cloud tops seem to be rising and they're getting darker every few minutes.

Not sure what cap (if any) is in place this far east, but I would not be surprised to see the area between Memphis and LR really get going between now and 4 - even beyond what's already beginning between LR and PB.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:44:09 PM
The one NE of Stuggart (NE of Pine Bluff) is triggering a core now likely approaching severe criteria...PBF cell still somewhat weak in that regard.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 02:45:56 PM
The one NE of Stuggart (NE of Pine Bluff) is triggering a core now likely approaching severe criteria...PBF cell still somewhat weak in that regard.

Next frame is going to be interesting Kevin.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:46:35 PM
PBF cell rotation is increasing...may be worth going straight to TOR...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 02:47:33 PM
The one NE of Stuggart (NE of Pine Bluff) is triggering a core now likely approaching severe criteria...PBF cell still somewhat weak in that regard.

The beauty of GR2Ae.  All I see is a core that's about 62dBz and a VIL of 50 with ever so slight rotation in the mid-levels.   ::pondering::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:48:01 PM
Warnings are imminent on both of those cells IMO...SVR or TOR...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 02:48:39 PM
PBF cell rotation is increasing...may be worth going straight to TOR...

Yep, it's looking that way. The storm is really trying to wrap up.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 02:49:05 PM
Warnings are imminent on both of those cells IMO...SVR or TOR...

Yessur....

(http://i56.tinypic.com/2sacg3q.png)

If this were in MEG's CWA, she'd already be warned.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 02:49:43 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0591.gif)

Quote
CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS FOR A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS
   EASTERN AR INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
   WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   OVER THE PAST HOUR...VISIBLE SATELLITE REFLECTS DEEPENING CUMULIFORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM
   SOUTH-CENTRAL AR INTO WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY...WITH INCIPIENT TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY NOTED EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WITH STRONG HEATING
   /ALREADY NEAR 80F OR ABOVE/ OCCURRING ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
   BOUNDARY...MODIFICATIONS TO A SPECIAL 18Z LITTLE ROCK OBSERVED RAOB
   SUGGEST LITTLE CINH REMAINS. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   INCREASES LATER TODAY...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE
   INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD
   SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING /AS A LOW
   LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MARKEDLY INCREASE/...INCREASING CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL NECESSITATE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bigalpha on April 26, 2011, 02:49:46 PM
Thanks for the info and heads up - I'll be doubly sure to be extra cautious today/tomorrow. 

I have the RadarScope App for my iPhone so I am always in the loop regarding radar.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:50:06 PM
PBF cell needs to go TOR...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 02:51:01 PM
SVR!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 02:51:09 PM
Didnt take it TOR??? Look at the hook!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 02:51:51 PM
Tornado warning now issued for the cell north east of Pine Bluff.

SVR only from where I sit.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 02:52:20 PM
Same here SVR.. Next frame should go TOR
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: ChrisPC on April 26, 2011, 02:53:43 PM
Thanks for the info and heads up - I'll be doubly sure to be extra cautious today/tomorrow. 

I have the RadarScope App for my iPhone so I am always in the loop regarding radar.
I don't remember who recommended it, but I got the app and love it! It's helped me out immensely.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:53:51 PM
So far...the cores aren't outright exploding...they are still staying within marginal criteria (with hail). If these were going straight to golfball or larger estimations...I would be much more concerned...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 02:54:52 PM
Yes, it should be TOR warned next frame. The rotation wrapped up pretty fast.

(http://i51.tinypic.com/33o5iky.png)


 Now seeing a 1.25 hail core in there.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 02:54:59 PM
Surprised she isn't TOR warned yet....definite inbound/outbound conflict there....
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 02:55:36 PM
So far...the cores aren't outright exploding...they are still staying within marginal criteria (with hail). If these were going straight to golfball or larger estimations...I would be much more concerned...

If any part of that storm goes TOR warned, I could see it being the part of the storm between De Valls Bluff and Clarendon
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 02:56:27 PM
Cores are not sustaining themselves so far...we're back to below 1" estimations across the board...there is still some CIN keeping these contained for the moment...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 02:57:33 PM
Should see a new Tornado Watch be issued for west TN, eastern AR, and portions of west KY...will be PDS when issued since it will include some HIGH risk areas.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 02:58:32 PM
Warning update on storm in Arkansas

Quote
THIS STORM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAK ROTATION.

Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 03:00:03 PM
Warning update on storm in Arkansas



Ha...LZK is a bit late to the party.   :D
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 03:00:27 PM
Warning update on storm in Arkansas



The storms trying its best to tighten up, it's getting there.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 26, 2011, 03:01:10 PM
Interesting that this is outside of any Watch area. (Unless my products arent updating)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 03:02:06 PM
Whoa! ANother storm popped up in the Dallas area FAST. It's going to go TOR warned very very soon. Possibly next scan.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 03:03:15 PM
New Tor watch includes Memphis
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: StormStalker on April 26, 2011, 03:03:36 PM
That storm appears to be heading directly toward the Memphis area. This is not good at all.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 03:03:41 PM
Kevin...have you checked out the cell that has popped in Weakley County? ::pondering::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 03:05:13 PM
Kevin...have you checked out the cell that has popped in Weakley County? ::pondering::

It's warned now.

That was fast.  ::wow::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 03:06:50 PM
It's warned now.

That was fast.  ::wow::

Wow, that was fast.... Doesn't show any signs of rotation(yet) though.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: StormStalker on April 26, 2011, 03:07:57 PM
Looks like things are finally starting to kick off in SW Arkansas.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: StormStalker on April 26, 2011, 03:09:52 PM
Memphis area now included in a PDS watch.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 03:10:09 PM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
308 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS NOW FIRING ALONG DEW POINT AXIS,
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS STORMS CAN EASILY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND A TORNADO
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 03Z.
SPC IS CALLING THIS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION, AND THERE
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR "DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES" TO OCCUR, ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES AND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME VERY GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY, WILL ALSO BE INTRODUCING A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE
MID STATE FROM 12Z/WED TO 00Z/THU.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 26, 2011, 03:11:43 PM
Looks like things are finally starting to kick off in SW Arkansas.

Figures... no activity, then I switch to MEG to check out the Weakley cell and the next radar sweep theres devel in SW ark. I think it was hiding from me.. Or waiting for me to turn my head before appearing?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 03:12:54 PM
So far these storms are still having trouble sustaining severe characteristics for long...we'll see if we can keep that up.

Shear is still somewhat weak...as SPC emphasizes by saying the "PDS" portion of the watch really isn't until the latter half of it...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 03:13:11 PM
Figures... no activity, then I switch to MEG to check out the Weakley cell and the next radar sweep theres devel in SW ark. I think it was hiding from me.. Or waiting for me to turn my head before appearing?

And... first SVR goes up in that area.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: ultra mag on April 26, 2011, 03:13:13 PM
 So will theses storms in pb and the one in obin county just form a line or will cells pop any where within the watch area?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 03:13:21 PM
First tornado warning of the day!....in NY.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 03:13:43 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11042618_OBS/LZK.gif)
 ::lookaround::

Loaded gun, anyone?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 03:14:04 PM
So will theses storms in pb and the one in obin county just form a line or will cells pop any where within the watch area?

Basically anywhere.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 03:15:14 PM
Wow, that was fast.... Doesn't show any signs of rotation(yet) though.

Still...rotation or not, very explosive.

Per SPC mesoanalysis page...west TN has these values.

CAPE of 2500-3000, LI's of -7, low-level shear of 25-30 (that is lacking, so tornado threat should be tempered early on), and helicity of 200, lapse rates of 6-7 (both mid-level and low-level)

So, right now, the tornado threat across west TN is limited, but that will increase as the jet increases this evening...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 03:17:31 PM
The cell in Weakley Co is a little more impressive for hail...maybe half dollar size...will soon move into KY.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 03:20:11 PM
Middle Tennesse looks to have better shear valves but with a weaker CAPE ATM.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: BrandonAL on April 26, 2011, 03:26:17 PM
Any predictions when it may get nasty (hail & high winds not conducive to driving) this evening on the I-65 corridor between Huntsville and Nashville?  I'm trying to meet some family for dinner along the way around 6ish...the worst of the weather looks like it should hold off until later, just want to get an expert's opinion if possible.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 03:27:00 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11042618_OBS/last.gif)

Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Dave R on April 26, 2011, 03:27:13 PM
Quote
US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
Showers and Thunderstorms are now rapidly developing south of Little Rock Arkansas. These storms will be growing in coverage and intensity, and move towards Middle Tennessee this evening and overnight. Possibility for severe weather exists this evening and overnight.... and through the day on Wednesday!

US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch in Effect for some Western Middle TN Counties including Benton, Houston, Humphreys, Montgomery and Stewart Counties until 10PM CDT

US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
Thunderstorm rapidly developing over Weakley County in Western TN
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 03:28:14 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11042618_OBS/last.gif)

Quite a change in the last 15 minutes.

Quite a change from what? That's the Shreveport 18z sounding...done at 1 PM...there's nothing new to note from that...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 03:29:56 PM
I didn't notice. Thought I refreshed LZK.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 03:30:39 PM
The AR stuff is trying...but just can't together for whatever reason at the moment. Have to think its lack of shear or a small CIN layer somewhere. That probably won't change for several hours yet...so as suspected this may be a more marginal/isolated threat for a while longer...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 03:31:30 PM
TOR for the south Dallas storm.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 03:36:40 PM
The AR stuff is trying...but just can't together for whatever reason at the moment. Have to think its lack of shear or a small CIN layer somewhere. That probably won't change for several hours yet...so as suspected this may be a more marginal/isolated threat for a while longer...

I am seeing a small layer of CIN on the SPC mesoanalysis page across central AR where these storms are currently at...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Adam on April 26, 2011, 03:37:24 PM
What is CIN and why does it effect this. ::shrug::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 03:39:56 PM
What is CIN and why does it effect this. ::shrug::

Convective inhibitor...the name speaks for itself. haha ;) If you have this CIN around, storms will have trouble reaching their full potential, or could stop them from forming all along if it is strong enough. Like across western TN, there is no CIN in place...but shear is lacking hence why these storms aren't going tornadic across western TN/KY.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 03:40:15 PM
CIN (Convective INhibition) represents the "negative" area on a sounding that must be overcome before storm initiation can occur.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 03:40:30 PM
I'm very surprised that OHX has not even issued a public statement yet.............unless I missed it.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 03:41:40 PM
I think that Middle Tennessee may have to be watched here for a bit. Convection could fire off at any time now.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Adam on April 26, 2011, 03:42:01 PM
Convective inhibitor...the name speaks for itself. haha ;) If you have this CIN around, storms will have trouble reaching their full potential, or could stop them from forming all along if it is strong enough. Like across western TN, there is no CIN in place...but shear is lacking hence why these storms aren't going tornadic across western TN/KY.
Ahh so it Inhibits Convectivity. So once this is gone they will start going tornadic?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 03:42:33 PM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
327 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...PDS TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR 5
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 03Z. NO DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN
THIS AREA YET, ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. LAPS DATA FROM 20Z SHOWS LIFTED
INDICES OF -8 TO -10 IN THE WATCH AREA, WITH CAPE`S IN EXCESS OF
3,000 J/KG. NOT MUCH SHEAR JUST YET, AS HELICITIES ARE UNDER 200,
BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER. AREA HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY
SINCE MORNING STORMS MOVED THROUGH, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN
THE UPPER 70`S AND DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60`S.


Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 03:43:58 PM
Ahh so it Inhibits Convectivity. So once this is gone they will start going tornadic?

Shear is lacking in AR right now too...I think, for right now, we are dealing with a large hail/isolated tornado threat. But once this LLJ increases, so will our tornadic potential across both AR and TN.

AKA: The OHX update above that Servo posted tells the story of west TN good too...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Adam on April 26, 2011, 03:45:01 PM
Shear is lacking in AR right now too...I think, for right now, we are dealing with a large hail/isolated tornado threat. But once this LLJ increases, so will our tornadic potential across both AR and TN.
Lower Level Jet will increase the shear. ::pondering:: Which will increase the spin in the atmoshpere.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Math/Met on April 26, 2011, 03:47:19 PM
Shear is lacking in AR right now too...I think, for right now, we are dealing with a large hail/isolated tornado threat. But once this LLJ increases, so will our tornadic potential across both AR and TN.



I agree. CIN is only affecting this because the real dynamical support hasn’t arrived yet.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 03:49:10 PM
Lower Level Jet will increase the shear. ::pondering:: Which will increase the spin in the atmoshpere.

Correct...some areas of 40 kt shear is back in TX, will need to watch that area for the first cells to go tornadic.

Also, Tor Warning out for Calloway County, KY...not seeing it. Not a favorable env. for tornadic development, and I am not seeing anything on PAH's radar to suggest a tornado.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: StormNine on April 26, 2011, 03:49:46 PM
PAH is pretty aggressive with the warnings more than likely because of the PDS Watch present.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 03:54:45 PM
Earlier it look like here the sun was trying to break out then cloud cover again, wonder if the sun will break out fully at all in OHX area?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: StormNine on April 26, 2011, 03:55:41 PM
Wall Cloud was reported in SW Calloway County that is why the warning is out.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 04:00:57 PM
First TOR warning has just gone up in southern AR...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: DocB on April 26, 2011, 04:01:32 PM
Earlier it look like here the sun was trying to break out then cloud cover again, wonder if the sun will break out fully at all in OHX area?
Sun been out just S of BNA for a while now with broken clouds.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 04:02:45 PM
Wall Cloud was reported in SW Calloway County that is why the warning is out.

The warning text makes it sound like PAH is actually watching some spotters stream...since it said they continue to show the wall cloud. ::pondering::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 04:06:43 PM
First TOR warning has just gone up in southern AR...

That one is hooking pretty good too.

Need to get back to clearing out my closet.  I have no idea how much crapola gets in it for such a tiny space.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WXHD on April 26, 2011, 04:10:17 PM
I'm very surprised that OHX has not even issued a public statement yet.............unless I missed it.

Mayor Dean and the Police chief are about to have a press conference in regards to in coming weather. This is a first as far as I know. Probably more related to fears of flooding being so close to the year anni.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 04:12:25 PM
Radar presentation of the Calloway Co storm is quite meager...I hope it was a legitamite spotter report that triggered the TOR.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 26, 2011, 04:14:20 PM
Top story in Chattanooga on the 5:00 news stations is the storm threat for tomorrow afternoon/evening. Good chance of tornadoes was emphasized along with the NWS conference/webinar today with Hamilton County EMS...can't say I've seen such a big deal made about a potential threat, but it's good to know they are taking it seriously and alerting everybody ahead of time.

Said we may be upgraded from MOD to HIGH risk late tonight or tomorrow morning  ::lookaround::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 04:14:38 PM
Radar presentation of the Calloway Co storm is quite meager...I hope it was a legitamite spotter report that triggered the TOR.

And the new Tor Warning makes me scratch my head too...I am seeing nothing on radar, not even elevated rotation.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 04:16:07 PM
The storm entering Brinkley seems as though it will go TOR warned pretty soon. The rotation is trying to tighten up, we'll see.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 04:17:19 PM
And the new Tor Warning makes me scratch my head too...I am seeing nothing on radar, not even elevated rotation.

There might be a little something on the elevated base velocities, but nothing even remotely substantial that would warrant an extension of the warning.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 04:19:03 PM
There might be a little something on the elevated base velocities, but nothing even remotely substantial that would warrant an extension of the warning.

Agreed. But still, I just don't see the need for this wording either.

Quote
AT 409 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR MURRAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 04:20:37 PM
The storms in southern AR look legitimate. Decent rotation on several of them.

The initial storms now west of Memphis look very meager.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 04:20:45 PM
The storm entering Brinkley seems as though it will go TOR warned pretty soon. The rotation is trying to tighten up, we'll see.
Yet again it was trying...was getting close...and now the core has just collapsed again....still a little ways to go...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 04:21:48 PM
Agreed. But still, I just don't see the need for this wording either.


Well, if they issue the warning then they must say it is showing signs of strong rotation. ;) Our point is...this storm isn't producing strong rotation, so shouldn't be warned. At least in our views...now I am seeing some stronger winds associated with this cell, so some wind gusts of 60 mph could very well be possible...but I am seeing nothing tornadic with this cell.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 04:23:36 PM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...AND SPC HAS DECLARED THIS A "PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION" WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
A SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO
NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST, WHILE DEVELOPING
EASTWARD.

EXPECT WESTERN TENNESSEE TO REMAIN VULNERABLE INTO THE EARLY
NIGHTTIME HOURS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND OTHER AREAS COULD
SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPING FOR THE MID STATE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH TORNADOES, LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.


BELIEVE OUR SKIES WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES.

EVERYONE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO A
RELIABLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND LISTEN FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCHES OR
WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE ISSUED
.


Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: StormStalker on April 26, 2011, 04:24:50 PM
What's the current time frame thinking for Mid TN tommorow? News 2 was saying around 10:00 AM but i've been hearing from others of between 1-6 PM.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 04:25:14 PM
The Southern AR cells look quite ominous to me...but they are also aligned to quickly congeal into a cluster in the next few hours as they head NE...they may or may not do that...but that's what the models had been indicating to happen all along...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 04:26:40 PM
I'm interested in what took place last night in Carroll/Obion/Weakley/Henry Counties and then up into Murray, KY. Very intense reports of wind damage. It doesn't seem we have many posters from up there so maybe that's why no one has really mentioned it, or the anticipation of "the big show."
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 04:28:08 PM
The Southern AR cells look quite ominous to me...but they are also aligned to quickly congeal into a cluster in the next few hours as they head NE...they may or may not do that...but that's what the models had been indicating to happen all along...

The one in Cleveland County looks very dangerous... hook developing.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 04:30:38 PM
What's the current time frame thinking for Mid TN tommorow? News 2 was saying around 10:00 AM but i've been hearing from others of between 1-6 PM.

I am saying 2-4 pm is when we should see it begin...and end later, say around 7-9 pm.

Now we, in middle TN and SCK, could be dealing with morning convection. That should give way to some clearing and then we see the discrete cell potential become amplified.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 04:31:07 PM
Possible debris ball on the cell near Rison.

(http://i52.tinypic.com/jrusd0.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on April 26, 2011, 04:31:27 PM
I'm interested in what took place last night in Carroll/Obion/Weakley/Henry Counties and then up into Murray, KY. Very intense reports of wind damage. It doesn't seem we have many posters from up there so maybe that's why no one has really mentioned it, or the anticipation of "the big show."
I talked to my ex-girlfriend's grandmother earlier today.  Upon hearing her report of the damage (losing shingles), I can only assume that there was either a very serious bout of sustained hurricane-force winds or maybe brief tornadoes spinning up every now and again, or both, or neither.  I haven't seen it but I have heard very bad things.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: herb on April 26, 2011, 04:32:03 PM
The kymesonet.org site near Murray KY had a measured gust to 101 mph at 1225 am.

I'm interested in what took place last night in Carroll/Obion/Weakley/Henry Counties and then up into Murray, KY. Very intense reports of wind damage. It doesn't seem we have many posters from up there so maybe that's why no one has really mentioned it, or the anticipation of "the big show."
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on April 26, 2011, 04:36:23 PM
The kymesonet.org site near Murray KY had a measured gust to 101 mph at 1225 am.

I had heard somewhere that it got up to 105, so definitely something absolutely horrid.  Trees are leaning down in the tall forests east of Paris from what I hear; if there is another strong storm tonight, a lot of houses might be in trouble.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 04:37:32 PM
Forrest City area now under TOR warning, not far west of Memphis...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 04:37:51 PM
Blog post from Davis Nolan concerning this severe threat...like he put it. Even if we have precip. around and cloud cover, which is possible...but not likely, to limit instability...severe weather still looks likely as does some tornadoes.

http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fnashvillewx.com%2F2011%2F04%2Fstorms-tonight-tornado-watch-nw-for-now-latest-on-severe-weather-situation-through-wednesay%2F&h=d3259
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 04:38:45 PM
Now Lake & Obion Counties in TN... TOR warning.

(I'll let T_N_T take care of the full text in the warnings thread, if anyone wants to see it  ;) )
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 04:41:02 PM
Now Lake & Obion Counties in TN... TOR warning.

(I'll let T_N_T take care of the full text in the warnings thread, if anyone wants to see it  ;) )

Already got it up there  ;D

Many of the storms are going tornado warned, just wild
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 04:41:24 PM
That cell out of Rison is indicating 3.75" hail.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 26, 2011, 04:51:03 PM
Will these storms stabilize the atmosphere any?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: marjl21 on April 26, 2011, 04:51:23 PM
Cell SW of Forrest City AR looks to be strenghing... Rotation should go south of the city.

Side note:  You can see a very different tone out of Dave Brown on WMC today.  Saying that this is not going to be one of the days where he discounts watches and warnings... Encouraging everyone to take warnings seriously, including flash flood warnings.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 26, 2011, 04:51:32 PM
Does anyone see SPC upgrading East Tn to High Risk for tomorrow? This has been mentioned as a possibility by some of the local mets already within the last hour.

Also, Hazardous Weather Outlook from MRX states the potential for "Damaging, long-track tornadoes." In the 10 years I've been following weather as a hobby, I can't say I've ever seen that mentioned for my forecast area before.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: rocket41 on April 26, 2011, 04:51:48 PM
I'm interested in what took place last night in Carroll/Obion/Weakley/Henry Counties and then up into Murray, KY. Very intense reports of wind damage. It doesn't seem we have many posters from up there so maybe that's why no one has really mentioned it, or the anticipation of "the big show."

Several large trees down throughout Carroll & Henry counties. My parents live in southern Carroll Co and have been told not to expect electricity to be restored until late tomorrow. Winds were pretty impressive(not sure how to estimate them).  My family goes to the storm shelter at their house and I will be nervous not having access to this site or radar if we have to go there.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 04:54:59 PM
Does anyone see SPC upgrading East Tn to High Risk for tomorrow?

More than likely yes, but mostly middle TN/north AL & MS.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 04:55:06 PM
Does anyone see SPC upgrading East Tn to High Risk for tomorrow? This has been mentioned as a possibility by some of the local mets already within the last hour.

Also, Hazardous Weather Outlook from MRX states the potential for "Damaging, long-track tornadoes." In the 10 years I've been following weather as a hobby, I can't say I've ever seen that mentioned for my forecast area before.

I am thinking east TN will just stay MDT risk...which is still fairly high and needs to be taken seriously.

For instance, on Super Tuesday...Macon County was NOT in the HIGH risk zone. We were on the fringe of it, but not in it. So even though east TN may not be added to the HIGH risk zone, still be very weather aware.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 04:56:39 PM
TVS marker popped up east of Forrest City
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 26, 2011, 05:01:15 PM
I am thinking east TN will just stay MDT risk...which is still fairly high and needs to be taken seriously.

For instance, on Super Tuesday...Macon County was NOT in the HIGH risk zone. We were on the fringe of it, but not in it. So even though east TN may not be added to the HIGH risk zone, still be very weather aware.

Thanks Johnny and WKU. Trying to get an idea of whether or not I can count on the usual "Chattanooga Split" that seems to always make things less severe here. I'm supposed to be giving my last speech of the year for one of my classes right when the line is going to be moving in tomorrow night. I'm actually considering e-mailing the teacher to think about cancelling class...the tornado that hit Chattanooga back in October of last year is about 2 miles from Chattanooga State Community College where I am giving my speech.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: dwagner88 on April 26, 2011, 05:02:08 PM
Well I know that the local WRF/RPM-based models aren't all that accurate, but Paul on Channel 3 ran his for the 5:00 and 5:30 news. At the 5:00 hour, it showed discrete activity ahead of the squall line, with rain totals approaching 3 inches as far west as the city. 30 minutes later, the same model showed nothing more than the passage of an ordinary looking squall line tomorrow evening, with no discrete activity ahead. Rain totals from that run were only around an inch. Not sure what to make of that.
EDIT: BTW 6 hours ago the HRRR had an MCS rolling through the state. Hasn't happened.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 05:03:22 PM
The cells in SE AR seem to be going hard right...may miss this area to the South...perhaps push into far NW MS.

St Francis cell is quite a hailer but haven't seen much significant rotation so far...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 26, 2011, 05:05:09 PM
Well I know that the local WRF/RPM-based models aren't all that accurate, but Paul on Channel 3 ran his for the 5:00 and 5:30 news. At the 5:00 hour, it showed discrete activity ahead of the squall line, with rain totals approaching 3 inches as far west as the city. 30 minutes later, the same model showed nothing more than the passage of an ordinary looking squall line tomorrow evening, with no discrete activity ahead. Rain totals from that run were only around an inch. Not sure what to make of that.

Yep...over the last 48 hours I have seen the Vipir and Microcast consistently not agree on timing, intensity, or rainfall amounts. David is the only one that has stuck to a solid forecast on this one.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 05:07:23 PM
Golf ball size hail reported in with the St. Francis cell.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 05:09:45 PM
Wow...  TOR waaayyy ahead of the main storms for Phillips/Coahoma.  MEG is antsy!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 05:15:12 PM
Funnel cloud reported in Cadiz???? ::shrug:: A funnel cloud coming from that little thing that probably isn't even blowing leaves right now?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 05:15:38 PM
Wow...  TOR waaayyy ahead of the main storms for Phillips/Coahoma.  MEG is antsy!

WTH... The warning is so far in advance that it doesn't connect with LZKs...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 05:17:39 PM
The AR cells are beginning to cluster together...the two discrete segments on the southern end will probably just skirt the far southern portion of the MEG area.

Besides the Forrest City Cell...the trends aren't too bad for this area right now to be honest...that's the one to continue watching to see if it tightens...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 05:18:55 PM
...And now the Forrest City cell is trying to tighten. Likely not producing yet but we're getting there perhaps...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 05:20:10 PM
TVS marker popping up again right over Forrest City
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 05:20:40 PM
The inflow may be blocked shortly by cells going to its SW...part of the developing cluster...that may be a life-saver...we'll have to see...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 05:24:41 PM
Rotation is quickly increasing...tornado is imminent...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 05:24:49 PM
Could there be a tornado trying to form right near Forrest city, LLR + TVS marker there now?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 05:25:10 PM
Scans are looking more ominous...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 05:25:55 PM
Tornado reported, w/ an injury, in the town of Hanson, KY up in Muhlenberg County, KY...for one scan, the rotation looked very tight on it (some blue going against red). It is still gate-to-gate, but not as significant as the earlier scan.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cameron K. on April 26, 2011, 05:26:57 PM
Forrest City Cell has very well defined hook. Hope these folks are taking cover.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 05:27:50 PM
The big cluster coming in fast to it is probably going to eventually prevent a strong tornado...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 05:28:48 PM
(http://i53.tinypic.com/15g9qc9.png)

Rotating wall cloud, and funnel confirmed.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 05:30:10 PM
New warning directional polygon seems to track the Forrest City storm more directly toward the greater Memphis area...

Starting to make a right turn?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 05:30:50 PM
(http://c34182.r82.cf0.rackcdn.com/c13ea386-468d-4cac-ab7b-3edec001a0bc.jpg)

This is the storm out of Forest City.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 05:31:36 PM
Put this radar in motion...and I am seeing a more ENE movement than NE. ::wow::

The Hopkinsville radar wasn't showing this Muhlenberg cell well at all, so I switched to the Evansville radar and saw this...

(http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/2287/wunidsmaps.gif)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 05:33:01 PM
Next radar scan on Forrest City cell still shows TVS marker +ULR, not as tight but still there
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 05:34:47 PM
This thing is slowly making a eastward turn, probable Tornado Emergency for the memphis metro as it makes it way in.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 05:37:09 PM
Yep... looping the scans, it's a right mover supercell.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 05:37:17 PM
This thing is slowly making a eastward turn, probable Tornado Emergency for the memphis metro as it makes it way in.
Its probably going to weaken in a few minutes as that convective band merges with it...interrupting inflow...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 05:37:48 PM
Since we are discussing happenings in three different states atm, could everyone just be specific and add AR, TN, or KY to the city you are talking about?  You might be familiar with it, others may not.  THANKS!

Mainly the outlying areas...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 05:38:46 PM
Now two TVS markers + LLR showing up near Forrest City,AR cell
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2011, 05:39:10 PM
Its probably going to weaken in a few minutes as that convective band merges with it...interrupting inflow...

Activity to the south of the hook on the cell is getting close.  Let's see if you're right.  For Memphis' sake, hopefully you are.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cameron K. on April 26, 2011, 05:39:48 PM
New warning directional polygon seems to track the Forrest City storm more directly toward the greater Memphis area...

Starting to make a right turn?
In the last 2 frames it looks that way..
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 05:41:18 PM
Its occluding out...right as the convective band hits it...as expected...

Stuff back to the west looks quite clustered now...maybe tor threat going down there now...haven't been able to look at those much in the last few minutes.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 26, 2011, 05:44:04 PM
From what I can see, I think Memphians should be more concerned about the cells more south and west than the cell that is coming in now...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 05:45:22 PM
Hartford, KY needs to be inside...those will be some massive hailstones...I also would not want to be in Livermore, KY right now. I can just hear windowns smashing in my brain thinking of that cell.

Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 05:46:12 PM
Starting to look more like a mass of rain and embedded thunderstorms rather than significant severe storms moving into Memphis honestly...keep those fingers crossed...things are clustering fast...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 26, 2011, 05:47:38 PM
Is the Forrest City cell making a right turn?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 05:47:57 PM
Starting to look more like a mass of rain and embedded thunderstorms rather than significant severe storms moving into Memphis honestly...keep those fingers crossed...things are clustering fast...

Those storms are too close together to organize to a strong threat.  Their interactions have been wicked over the past 30 mins though.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 05:51:33 PM
This is from the same supercell that produced the tornado back in Hanson, KY...now I am not a radar guru, but that doesn't look good.

(http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/2337/wunidsmap.gif)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cameron K. on April 26, 2011, 05:52:21 PM
Starting to look more like a mass of rain and embedded thunderstorms rather than significant severe storms moving into Memphis honestly...keep those fingers crossed...things are clustering fast...

I agree. It's the more spaced out cells that seem to develop into more serious storms.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: marjl21 on April 26, 2011, 05:55:30 PM
http://www.5newsonline.com/news/5live/ (http://www.5newsonline.com/news/5live/)

Time sensitive... developing funnel/rotating wall cloud right over news station in Fort Smith AR
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 05:55:39 PM
"Attention zoo visitors. This is a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Please seek indoor shelter now."

Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 05:57:25 PM
Really encouraged by the radar trends for Memphis...most intense cells are skirting well south...the tornadic cell in Crittenden Co AR is weakening though still severe...the other cells back in LZK's CWA have lost all SVR/TOR warnings all together...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 05:59:53 PM
WBKO just gave a report that a large funnel cloud is moving close to the city of Hartford, KY...strong rotation, but not on the ground, thankfully. Hook echo showing up on their radar in Hartford, have a bad feeling about this one.

Here is the latest scan taken at 6:01...

(http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/8735/wunidsmapm.gif)

Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 06:03:37 PM
Quote
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL QUITMAN...NORTHERN COAHOMA...SOUTHERN TUNICA...SOUTHEASTERN
LEE AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...

AT 557 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAMBROOK...OR 7
MILES WEST OF ELAINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION...TWO TORNADIC CELLS ARE MOVING EAST FOLLOWING NEARLY
THE EXACT SAME PATH AS THE FIRST CELL. THE SECOND CELL IS LOCATED
BETWEEN GILLETT AND WHITE RIVER NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE WHILE THE
THIRD CELL IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GILLETT.


Wow...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:03:52 PM
Big problem possible Crittenden Co...something is tightening embedded in the convection...watch extremely closely...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:05:10 PM
Marion and West Memphis take cover now!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 06:05:33 PM
Big problem possible Crittenden Co...something is tightening embedded in the convection...watch extremely closely...

I thought this was weakening...I was about to think we were all clear
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 06:06:05 PM
WBKO just gave a report that a large funnel cloud is moving close to the city of Hartford, KY...strong rotation, but not on the ground, thankfully. Hook echo showing up on their radar in Hartford, have a bad feeling about this one.

Here is the latest scan taken at 6:01...

(http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/8735/wunidsmapm.gif)



I don't like the track of that one.    ::wow::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 06:06:11 PM
Okay, WBKO just said a trained spotter has reported a tornado on the ground west of Hartford, KY...latest scan shows this rotation moving directly over Hartford very soon.

UPDATE: Next scan shows this cell now east of Hartford...hoping for the best, but would not be shocked we start to hear damage reports soon.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:06:14 PM
I thought this was weakening...I was about to think we were all clear
It was but not anymore...tornado is imminent...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:06:54 PM
W/NW Shelby get ready for a TOR from this...it will cross the river if it holds...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 26, 2011, 06:08:32 PM
WOW...Just came in from work to see the high risk ::wow:: Can someone tell me when SPC upgraded from the MDT? This morning?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:08:43 PM
Very strong...but also broad...I can only hope this isn't touching...maybe it isn't...but assume it is...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Adam on April 26, 2011, 06:08:59 PM
W/NW Shelby get ready for a TOR from this...it will cross the river if it holds...
Yeah that one looks like it will hold. Hopefully not though.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 06:09:57 PM
Very strong...but also broad...I can only hope this isn't touching...maybe it isn't...but assume it is...

Some LLR showing up near Crawfordsville,AR now
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 06:11:09 PM
Tornado warning for wrn shelby co tn now(includes downtown memphis in warning)...sirens sounding in Memphis yet?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Tornado 73 on April 26, 2011, 06:12:24 PM
Really encouraged by the radar trends for Memphis...most intense cells are skirting well south...the tornadic cell in Crittenden Co AR is weakening though still severe...the other cells back in LZK's CWA have lost all SVR/TOR warnings all together...

Just issued two seperate tornado warnings for their cwa.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2011, 06:13:05 PM
Tornado warning for wrn shelby co tn now...sirens sounding in Memphis yet?

they are indeed. Tornado spotted near Marion moving east into Memphis per WREG
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 06:13:30 PM
Tornado sirens malfunctioning here...one closest to us is not working.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 06:13:38 PM
they are indeed. Tornado spotted near Marion moving east into Memphis per WREG

Thats where the TVS + LLR shows up on GR3
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: lilapsophobic on April 26, 2011, 06:13:44 PM
sirens in cordova, looks to be going N of us here?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Adam on April 26, 2011, 06:14:27 PM
Are there no memphis stations going live? ::shrug:: If so I wanna see the link.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 06:14:30 PM
sirens in cordova, looks to be going N of us here?

Yes...unless it really hooks right
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 06:14:35 PM
Hartford, KY Police saying they are seeing multiple funnel clouds...they are ascending and decending rapidly. So far no reports of damage from Hartford, TN, which is a pretty large city. Hoping we were lucky and escaped any significant damage.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: elicoleman on April 26, 2011, 06:15:31 PM
Sirens going off in Collierville even though this was meant for western Shelby Co
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 06:16:13 PM
WMC TV 5 live stream

http://www.wmctv.com/category/196691/action-news-5-live-video-coverage (http://www.wmctv.com/category/196691/action-news-5-live-video-coverage)
 
WREG TV 3 live stream

http://www.wreg.com/videobeta/?watchLive=wreg-live-stream (http://www.wreg.com/videobeta/?watchLive=wreg-live-stream)

Fox 13

http://www.myfoxmemphis.com/ (http://www.myfoxmemphis.com/)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 06:17:35 PM
Fox 13 may get a live shot of this crossing the river guys....they are panning...sky is green
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: marjl21 on April 26, 2011, 06:17:49 PM
Yikes... time to take cover... hopefully it will go north of me...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:18:03 PM
Its weakening thank goodness...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 06:18:32 PM
Tornado warning for Shelby, very strong a broad rotation near Marion.

(http://i52.tinypic.com/o85me0.png)
 ::wow::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Adam on April 26, 2011, 06:19:19 PM
Is that another one right beside it too!?!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 06:19:49 PM
WOW...Just came in from work to see the high risk ::wow:: Can someone tell me when SPC upgraded from the MDT? This morning?

I think it was the 11:30 Day 1 update today.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Math/Met on April 26, 2011, 06:19:58 PM
Even if there is no tornado, there will still be some very strong and damaging winds.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:20:03 PM
Don't want to 100% write it off but much much weaker...optimistic...
(http://i53.tinypic.com/2dj7wr7.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 26, 2011, 06:20:15 PM
Hartford, KY Police saying they are seeing multiple funnel clouds...they are ascending and decending rapidly. So far no reports of damage from Hartford, TN, which is a pretty large city. Hoping we were lucky and escaped any significant damage.

Hartford,TN ?? Thats a few miles from my house in east TN and is a very small community.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 06:20:20 PM
Very green coloration coming across the river...indicating refraction of light due to hail
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 26, 2011, 06:21:10 PM
I think it was the 11:30 Day 1 update today.

Thanks Eric :)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 06:21:23 PM
Don't want to 100% write it off but much much weaker...optimistic...
(http://i53.tinypic.com/2dj7wr7.png)

Is this from the MEG radar site?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: BrandonAL on April 26, 2011, 06:21:28 PM
Does anyone know where Fisher is broadcasting from on TWC?  He is right along the river in Memphis...looks nasty there!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:22:13 PM
Is this from the MEG radar site?

Its NQA...new scan just in is even weaker..think Memphis may have dodged a HUGE bullet here...may not be the case in Marion/West Memphis...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 06:22:57 PM
Hartford,TN ?? Thats a few miles from my house in east TN and is a very small community.

Meant KY...been typing KY the entire time and had one little slip.

Ohio County sheriff (Hartford, KY is the county seat) reporting golf ball size hail in that county and trees down. So far no homes or buildings damaged...great news!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 06:25:44 PM
Its NQA...new scan just in is even weaker..think Memphis may have dodged a HUGE bullet here...may not be the case in Marion/West Memphis...

Yes, I see that it's not as pronounced but there is still some significant rotation.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 26, 2011, 06:26:23 PM
Meant KY...been typing KY the entire time and had one little slip.

Ohio County sheriff (Hartford, KY is the county seat) reporting golf ball size hail in that county and trees down. So far no homes or buildings damaged...great news!

Ah ok thanks, Was just curious if there was two with the same name in TN. ;D

Stay safe Charles.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bonzomemphis on April 26, 2011, 06:26:33 PM
I just left downtown about 20 min ago. Most ominous, black skies I've ever seen in my life. Scary stuff.

The rain on the north loop was extremely intense. Not much wind or hail in the initial cell that impacted northern Shelby Co, but blinding rainfall. I can definitely see the flooding threat with such high pw values.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: marjl21 on April 26, 2011, 06:26:41 PM
I hope youre right Kevin... EXTREMELY windy here....
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 06:26:52 PM
I-40 in Marion,AR two trucks overturned
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 06:27:07 PM
Thanks Eric :)

Sure....NP.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:28:00 PM
Latest scan...this is just way too broad/weaker now...its not tornadic anymore fortunately...maybe still some 60mph winds...
(http://i54.tinypic.com/2ptwf4k.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:31:10 PM
Of course keep in mind this could spin-up again very quickly as it did previously though its not showing that now...still would be taking cover in NW Shelby....
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: marjl21 on April 26, 2011, 06:32:10 PM
getting really strong north winds now... no hail thus far even though WMC just showed 3.5" right over me on VIL.  Its all heavy heavy rain.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 06:32:33 PM
Latest scan...this is just way too broad/weaker now...its not tornadic anymore fortunately...maybe still some 60mph winds...
(http://i54.tinypic.com/2ptwf4k.png)

Dave Brown just said "a funnel cloud or tornado probably likely" in the Memphis storm
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 06:33:09 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0601.gif)
Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...AR...PORTIONS ERN OK...SERN KS...SRN MO...EXTREME
   SRN IL...WRN KY...NWRN MS...WRN TN.
  
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215...217...221...
  
   VALID 262317Z - 270115Z
  
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
   215...217...221...CONTINUES.
  
   SVR CONVECTION...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA FROM ERN OK TO MS RIVER NEAR MEM.  
  
   WARM-SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS.  IN FACT...PRE-STORM LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
   EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SIGNIFICANT/DESTRUCTIVE
   TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS
   JUST ABOVE SFC...SUBSTANTIALLY BOOSTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH.
   LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ALSO IS LIKELY FROM INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS.
  
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER ERN OK JUST W FSM...COLD FRONT SWWD
   ACROSS LAMAR COUNTY TX...QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE CURVING NEWD
   OVER NWRN AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL AR.  FRONT BECOMES COLD FRONT AGAIN
   FROM NERN AR NEWD ACROSS SERN MO.  THOSE FRONTAL ZONES WILL ACT AS
   NRN/WRN BOUNDS FOR SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS...ALTHOUGH
   TSTMS TO THEIR N AND W ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO REGION WILL BE
   IN FAVORABLE ELEVATED SHEAR AND BUOYANCY FOR LARGE HAIL.  IN REGIME
   OF STG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SHEAR SE OF FRONTAL ZONE...OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION OVER AR MAY MIX/ADVECT
   AWAY RATHER QUICKLY...BUT ALSO CAN SUPPLY ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
   VORTICITY/SHEAR ABOVE ALREADY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES.  MODIFIED
   RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG OVER
   CONVECTIVELY UNPERTURBED AIR MASS OF CENTRAL/SRN AR...NARROWING TO
   CORRIDOR OF 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE NEWD TOWARD LOWEST OH VALLEY.
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 50-60 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG ARE
   COMMON...WITH SRH FCST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 00Z BENEATH
   LLJ.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 06:35:34 PM
Dave Brown just said "a funnel cloud or tornado probably likely" in the Memphis storm

He also ignored it for several minutes while Kevin was yelling that it was gonna be a TOR....I was not impressed that he was talking about pea-sized hail in Bartlett while a potential tornado was developing in the metro area. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 06:35:57 PM
WREG saying tornado on the ground crossing the river. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:38:34 PM
WREG saying tornado on the ground crossing the river. 

That may have been right as it was lifting (assuming it did touch...that's not confirmed at this time)...it likely was on the ground from just west of Marion/West Memphis right up to the River area when it broadened rapidly. Though...encouraged we haven't heard of much damage yet back toward Marion other than those two tractor trailer trucks that were overturned.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 06:39:04 PM
New TOR going into Desoto County, MS.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 06:39:19 PM
He also ignored it for several minutes while Kevin was yelling that it was gonna be a TOR....I was not impressed that he was talking about pea-sized hail in Bartlett while a potential tornado was developing in the metro area. 

I know, and he is the one who usually questions the warnings

Tornado on the ground near Lula,MS

new TOR warning for northeastern shelby county
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Fred Gossage on April 26, 2011, 06:40:44 PM
This is going to seem like an alarmist type post... but folks that have followed me for a while know that I'm not the intentional hype-type... I try to just be straight and tell it like I think it is... and if I bust, I bust... and learn from it.....

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I've seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 26, 2011, 06:43:16 PM
Sirens going off in tipton
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 06:43:50 PM
This is going to seem like an alarmist type post... but folks that have followed me for a while know that I'm not the intentional hype-type... I try to just be straight and tell it like I think it is... and if I bust, I bust... and learn from it.....

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I've seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather.

Fred, I've felt the same way about the western 2/3s of TN since I started looking at data yesterday.  Frightening synoptic setup for sure.  Be safe tomorrow.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:44:04 PM
I know, and he is the one who usually questions the warnings

Tornado on the ground near Lula,MS

new TOR warning for northeastern shelby county

The fact is this is within mere miles of the radar...if this was on the ground...we would see it on radar like we did back at Little Rock last night. The circulation is extremely broad and this appears by the velocity pattern to have gusted out (outflow dominant).
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 06:45:52 PM
Memphis storm is almost right over Millington radar site
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:45:55 PM
So far...MLGW outages are limited. Good so far...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 06:46:43 PM
Tornado sirens are on and off here.  Something isn't right.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:47:31 PM
and now Dave Brown relays a tornado report...excludes the fact it was a tornado...looks at the low "VTI"...and says this is "just a strong thunderstorm with hail and high winds".
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 06:47:44 PM
Memphis storm is almost right over Millington radar site

Radar-indicated.  I'd take cover, but I think Kevin is probably right about this one.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 06:48:55 PM
and now Dave Brown relays a tornado report...excludes the fact it was a tornado...looks at the low "VTI"...and says this is "just a strong thunderstorm with hail and high winds".

I quit watching him after that incident in ignoring the situation in Crittendon Co., AR...that was not really excusable to me.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 26, 2011, 06:50:03 PM
This is going to seem like an alarmist type post... but folks that have followed me for a while know that I'm not the intentional hype-type... I try to just be straight and tell it like I think it is... and if I bust, I bust... and learn from it.....

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I've seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather.

Hey Fred, Dr Forbes had a torcon of 9 in parts of Northern Alabama so it seems he agrees with you. Do you think the SPC will upgrade the MDT tomorrow?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: marjl21 on April 26, 2011, 06:50:31 PM
13,000 without power, mostly in NW Memphis where the strong outflow/RFD(?) blew through.  Power barely blinked here (Thank you below ground power lines).
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 06:51:07 PM
and now Dave Brown relays a tornado report...excludes the fact it was a tornado...looks at the low "VTI"...and says this is "just a strong thunderstorm with hail and high winds".

Are you talking about the tornado near Lula,MS? Wow
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Brian on April 26, 2011, 06:51:18 PM
The June 8, 1966 Topeka, Kansas (my hometown) tornado put that idea to rest pretty firmly. Before that time, people were advised to seek the southwest corner of the  building they were in. Didn't matter house, gym, church, etc. as long as it was the SW corner. My parents remember that practice still in place from a long time ago. Then, June 8 happened, in an area of Topeka where all the SW corners of the buildings had walk-out basements. (Read: terrible place for tornado protection)

Immediately after that event, the recommendation was for people to go to the NE corner. In a way, good example of opposite thinking: if the NE corner is farther away and opposite of the SW corner, then it must reason that it would be safer. Turned out it wasn't after several examples of damage and injuries to various places/people (don't have specific examples, but know that they are out there), and then the thinking went to central parts of the structure, with the most building between you and the outside areas.

Beyond all these examples, there's the very basic fact of how much larger even a medium sized tornado is than the typical home dwelling. Difficult to justify certain sections of a building (minus the center) as being safest when the funnel/vortex is so much bigger.

excellent response...thank you, Austen!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Fred Gossage on April 26, 2011, 06:51:39 PM
Hey Fred, Dr Forbes had a torcon of 9 in parts of Northern Alabama so it seems he agrees with you. Do you think the SPC will upgrade the MDT tomorrow?

According to the SPC Day 2 discussion itself.... they almost went HIGH at midday today... for tomorrow. We can this [---] close to having a Day 2 HIGH Risk.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 26, 2011, 06:52:23 PM
Saw large, well-defined mesocyclone looking to the west from Costco at I-40 and Germantown and decided to head back home to northeast Cordova.  Did not see a tornado, but it looked serious.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 06:52:52 PM
Servocrow, have you been able to reach your parents, are they doing okay?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 06:53:58 PM
I'm in a basement and there's limbs down against the window.

Pretty concerned. Family in Coahoma, Tunica, and Marion AR. Plus Little Rock is like a Christmas tress
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 06:55:07 PM
Servocrow, have you been able to reach your parents, are they doing okay?

I called them about a half-hour ago to let them know it was coming.  It's still outside their county.  They laugh at me, but my StepMom said she had the radio on.  I'll settle down when that cell passes E-town.   ::lookaround::

Thanks for asking.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 06:55:26 PM
Looks like our bow is forming up (for memphis).
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 06:56:15 PM
Fred, I've felt the same way about the western 2/3s of TN since I started looking at data yesterday.  Frightening synoptic setup for sure.  Be safe tomorrow.

It is driving me bonkers that OHX has not released an official public statement concerning the potential.  I've seen them do it 2-3 days in advance for systems with much less of a threat.     ::shrug::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 26, 2011, 06:56:40 PM
FWIW here is TWC's take on the threat for tomorrow
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews03_ltst_4namus_enus_600x338.jpg)

Seems about right to me.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 26, 2011, 06:57:45 PM
Sky is green in Atoka
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 06:58:32 PM
Of course tomorrow is going to go HIGH. We all know that.

The winds were very strong here. Probably severe. Doubt there's any damage but I'll relay it once they let me out of this basement.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 06:58:43 PM
I thought I heard there was a funnel sighted near Bartlett,TN. Anyone else confirm that?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 06:59:17 PM
Power outages starting to go up across NW Shelby...not sure if perhaps its just delayed getting into the system from earlier...the main winds have passed now...up to 20k...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 06:59:58 PM
I'll give you guys a quick update, I'm in the Germantown area right now, I was following the first storm through the arlington and lakeland area. I saw pea to quarter hail, along with a slowly rotating wall cloud.
(20 min ago)

Im not seeing anything too impressive at the moment, just lots and lots of lighting.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 26, 2011, 07:02:49 PM
I thought I heard there was a funnel sighted near Bartlett,TN. Anyone else confirm that?

WREG reported that a Skywarn spotter confirmed the funnel cloud 2.5 mi north of Bartlett.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 26, 2011, 07:04:08 PM
Kevin  Your thoughts on that TOR warned area thats moving NE through Tunica Co?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 07:04:54 PM
Tornado damage confirmed in Coahoma County along with baseball size hail.

Very concerned if this continues across southern Tunica.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 07:05:21 PM
Kevin  Your thoughts on that TOR warned area thats moving NE through Tunica Co?
Not incredibly strong at the moment but needs watching...may approach Fayette Co eventually if it holds together...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 07:06:07 PM
Really strong bowing near Arlington...Curt...anything in your area?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2011, 07:09:09 PM
Really strong bowing near Arlington...Curt...anything in your area?

Yup were good  ;D VERY low scud clouds are strong winds...nothing that I havent already seen though.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: InMemphis on April 26, 2011, 07:10:18 PM
Will this threat extend into the overnight hours?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 07:11:24 PM
Not incredibly strong at the moment but needs watching...may approach Fayette Co eventually if it holds together...

LSRs are confirming significant damage across northern Coahoma County. Might not be in TN, but still notable...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 07:12:25 PM
LSRs are confirming significant damage across northern Coahoma County. Might not be in TN, but still notable...
That was with the other tornadic cell south of there...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 26, 2011, 07:12:56 PM
Still under tor warning in Atoka has it passed us yet?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 07:14:19 PM
Assuming we haven't heard of any problems in Crittenden County...I'm thinking maybe they escaped big problems as well. Either didn't touch...was brief/weak...or stayed in open areas. Good news.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 07:17:42 PM
Two tvs markers showing up SE of Tunica,MS + ULR
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 07:18:21 PM
new TOR for north central desoto
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2011, 07:20:21 PM
Southern end in the metro starting to congeal now? Looking more linear?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 07:21:46 PM
Southern end in the metro starting to congeal now? Looking more linear?

Definitely so...embedded rotations but we're getting into a QLCS spin-up scenario now...

Dave Brown started to dismiss the TORs...not surprising...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 07:22:27 PM
That was with the other tornadic cell south of there...

Ah. Lula is in far north Coahoma County but I wasn't paying attn. Doesn't change the fact though...

Memphis may have been spared but other areas interest me.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2011, 07:22:43 PM
Question is now....have we killed all instability with these?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Adam on April 26, 2011, 07:24:34 PM
Question is now....have we killed all instability with these?
Should clear out by tommrow at least thats what the models have been getting at.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 07:24:58 PM
Question is now....have we killed all instability with these?

We may have...its 63/58 at KMEM now...not exactly optimal...and with continued convection redeveloping I'm not sure if there will be major opportunities to recover...

MEG really flying the TORs now...everything looks marginal to me though still...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 26, 2011, 07:25:43 PM
Question is now....have we killed all instability with these?
::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 26, 2011, 07:26:30 PM
Can someone post some radar with markers on that desoto county warning?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 07:28:08 PM
Can someone post some radar with markers on that desoto county warning?

(http://i54.tinypic.com/2vkdylu.png)

There's no markers to put up...nothing's triggering (hail or rotation)...everything looks straight-line to me...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Vols1 on April 26, 2011, 07:29:10 PM
Will Dickson be n the thick of things tomorrow or will this stabilize things? And about what time?  Thanks
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 26, 2011, 07:30:18 PM
I may be wrong but this doesnt look like its going to go linear anytime soon IMO. Nasty looking on regional radar  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 07:32:04 PM
I may be wrong but this doesnt look like its going to go linear anytime soon IMO. Nasty looking on regional radar  ::popcorn::

Not sure what else you call the area from SW TN into NW MS...its a pretty solid line...  ::shrug::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 26, 2011, 07:33:02 PM
Not sure what else you call the area from SW TN into NW MS...its a pretty solid line...  ::shrug::

I was talking about the system as a whole.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 07:33:16 PM
Question is now....have we killed all instability with these?
Question is now....have we killed all instability with these?

The MCD from the SPC addresses this. Their thinking is no... But we'll see.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 07:34:28 PM
Will Dickson be n the thick of things tomorrow or will this stabilize things? And about what time?  Thanks


Not at all.  Things are only getting ramped up tonight.  Tomorrow, IMO, will be much, much worse than today/tonight.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 26, 2011, 07:35:04 PM
I am becoming increasingly unnerved about the situation tomorrow afternoon/evening for my area.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 26, 2011, 07:37:41 PM
I am becoming increasingly unnerved about the situation tomorrow afternoon/evening for my area.

Yeah its probably the most dangerous threat we east Tennesseeans have seen in a while. Going to be interesting to say the least.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Vols1 on April 26, 2011, 07:38:46 PM
Bout what time Eric? Thanks for the quick reply
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: ultra mag on April 26, 2011, 07:40:24 PM
 Will west tn be under the gun tomorrow as well?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Matt on April 26, 2011, 07:40:53 PM
I am kind of suprised they haven't extended the watch boxes with at least Severe Thunderstorm Watches...tornado warned cells are moving out of the boxes...

EDIT: Nvm, it appears they did haha
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Clay on April 26, 2011, 07:40:57 PM
Though it won't affect us, Elizabethtown is about to get pummeled. Definitely some radar indicated rotation in the cell up that way. Don't know about spotter reports.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mamMATTus on April 26, 2011, 07:41:50 PM
Yeah its probably the most dangerous threat we east Tennesseeans have seen in a while. Going to be interesting to say the least.

I'm hoping Chatt State will catch *wind* of this threat. I've got class 6-7:30 tomorrow night, which is around the time the line is going to be coming in town. I'm not putting myself in harms way just for a grade, which includes driving home in it after class is over.

I am NOT counting on the Chattanooga Split this time to help us out.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 07:42:30 PM
Though it won't affect us, Elizabethtown is about to get pummeled. Definitely some radar indicated rotation in the cell ip that way. Don't know about spotter reports.

UGH...I know..   :(
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: angrypug on April 26, 2011, 07:43:16 PM
Any chance of the radar sig's developing in southern middle tn building up and going severe?  Just noticed them popping up in last little bit.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 26, 2011, 07:44:07 PM
According to WREG, Tree on a house and roof damage south of Broadway in West Memphis, power lines down at Missouri St at Bond Rd.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 07:45:14 PM
Will west tn be under the gun tomorrow as well?

Yes, but not near as bad as Mid TN.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 07:46:01 PM
Bout what time Eric? Thanks for the quick reply

I'm thinking anytime after lunchtime.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 07:46:40 PM
Line went through here uneventfully.  The line last night was much more eventful wind wise.  We got a ton of rain though.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 26, 2011, 07:47:59 PM
WeatherTap is failing me now... Whats coming into Fayette County from the Southwest?

Im going to have to move my rain gauge, 11" in the last hour. I must be getting wind blown water off the side of the house.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Cyclonicjunkie on April 26, 2011, 07:49:28 PM
Any chance of the radar sig's developing in southern middle tn building up and going severe?  Just noticed them popping up in last little bit.

HR shows these developing but will probably be just some hailers I would think.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Matt on April 26, 2011, 07:50:04 PM
WeatherTap is failing me now... Whats coming into Fayette County from the Southwest?

Im going to have to move my rain gauge, 11" in the last hour. I must be getting wind blown water off the side of the house.

I hope so lol...that would be the heaviest one hour total I have ever heard of!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Twisted on April 26, 2011, 07:51:49 PM
Has the tor been canceled for Atoka? The sirens are still going off.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 07:51:50 PM
Storms back in SW AR do not look nearly as ominous as the cells earlier.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 07:54:35 PM
I think those of us who were thinking that this wasn't a real "High risk" for Memphis may turn out to be right.  There has certainly been some severe weather but I have yet to see anything that justified the high risk.  I'm not saying that we're done but unless the SPC is right about the atmosphere destabilizing here once again...I don't see this really doing the trick.

That said, the setup tomorrow will probably be high risk for many/most of you and, as it looks now, I see no reason to disagree.  
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: InMemphis on April 26, 2011, 07:58:24 PM
Even Dave Brown is not calling this over and done with.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:00:42 PM
Even Dave Brown is not calling this over and done with.

I didn't say that...I'm not saying it's over...I'm saying that this might end up being correct.  In no way would am I implying that we have an "all clear" situation.  There is still a significant risk...it's just not extreme IMO. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 08:00:56 PM
I think those of us who were thinking that this wasn't a real "High risk" for Memphis may turn out to be right.  There has certainly been some severe weather but I have yet to see anything that justified the high risk.  I'm not saying that we're done but unless the SPC is right about the atmosphere destabilizing here once again...I don't see this really doing the trick.

That said, the setup tomorrow will probably be high risk for many/most of you and, as it looks now, I see no reason to disagree.  

Looking at the regional radar, I think flooding is going to be the name of the game svr weather wise tonight.  some big time training may occur.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 26, 2011, 08:02:43 PM
Check this photo from rhodes in midtown Memphis

http://bit.ly/fFjWb8
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 08:03:17 PM
This is definitely going the way of flooding to me. Some severe...yes...but as mentioned last night...its May 1-2 all over again...people are freaking about the severe weather and high risks and PDS watches and tornado warnings...and some of this may verify...but the flooding will outdo any of it...

Speaking of tonight only at least...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:03:21 PM
Looking at the regional radar, I think flooding is going to be the name of the game svr weather wise tonight.  some big time training may occur.

I agree...it appears to me that this is setting up just as guidance was showing from a couple of days ago.  We may see some serious life-threatening situations develop in locales overnight if we do have training set up.  I'm very concerned about that and I do think that the PDS flash flood watch is on the money right now whether or not the threat materializes.  
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2011, 08:03:28 PM
Latest SREF does show instability increasing pretty rapidly after midnight, with a TOR threat in Memphis through mid morning. Tomorrow's risk will really depend on how much convection is ongoing region wide and its effect on instability.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:04:17 PM
Check this photo from rhodes in midtown Memphis

http://bit.ly/fFjWb8

That's a great photo there!  What a pic!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:05:34 PM
Dave Brown showing some significant shear south and west of Holly Springs...........
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: servocrow on April 26, 2011, 08:06:06 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0606.gif)
Quote
 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN LA...EXTREME SERN AR...NRN MS...NWRN
   AL...MIDDLE TN.
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
  
   VALID 270059Z - 270300Z
  
   WW 215 HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD ACROSS REMAINDER NRN MS AND WRN TN.
   ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 2
   HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA...PERHAPS INCLUDING AREAS
   CURRENTLY IN WW 215 THAT WILL STILL CONTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT.
  
   POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE SFC AIR WITH DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S
   F IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM NRN MS NEWD OVER MID TN AND SWD ACROSS NRN
   AL.  HOWEVER...STG LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION IS
   FCST...ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE SFC.  LLJ IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN TO
   50-65 KT RANGE ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF LOWER DELTA REGION INTO MID TN
   THROUGH 06Z.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED JAN/SHV RAOBS AND RUC FCST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CURRENTLY STRONG MLCINH OVER NRN MS WILL
   WEAKEN...WHILE MLCAPE INCREASES REGION-WIDE TO 2000-2500 J/KG VALUES
   NOW EVIDENT OVER WRN TN AND SRN MS.  AS MID-UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS
   ACROSS OK...MID-UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THIS
   AREA ALSO...WITH 55-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES BECOMING
   COMMON.  LLJ ALSO WILL ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH
   REACHING 300-500 J/KG RANGE.  NET RESULT SHOULD BE EWD  SHIFT/SPREAD
   OF TORNADIC SUPERCELL REGIMES NOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION AND SWRN
   TN/NWRN MS.  DEVELOPMENT OF SVR BOW ECHOES WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT ALSO MAY OCCUR...GIVEN STRENGTH AND ANGLE OF DEEP-LAYER
   WIND WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE FORCING...AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
   CONVECTION ALREADY EVIDENT
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 08:06:23 PM
Three tvs markers and LLR between Sentobia,MS and Holly Springs,MS
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:07:04 PM
This is definitely going the way of flooding to me. Some severe...yes...but as mentioned last night...its May 1-2 all over again...people are freaking about the severe weather and high risks and PDS watches and tornado warnings...and some of this may verify...but the flooding will outdo any of it...

Speaking of tonight only at least...

This actually has the potential to be worse (the flooding) than having an actual tornado touch down in the city.  The impact of the flooding really could be extreme if it sets up just right (and it does look like it could).  
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 08:08:18 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11042700_OBS/LZK.gif)

Hmm.. CAPE Values aren't that high, though.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:09:20 PM
Reporting on WREG that cars floating away somewhere on Houston Levee Rd...I'm not 100% sure I heard that right because my reception is poor right now. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 08:09:27 PM
Check this photo from rhodes in midtown Memphis

http://bit.ly/fFjWb8

Ha. This photo is everywhererrrrrrr

Thank god the rain is letting up. Water is coming into  doorway of Ellett hall at Rhodes.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 08:10:40 PM
Dave Brown showing some significant shear south and west of Holly Springs...........
And of course he's dismissing it as straight-line only when it is in fact tornadic...

As usual...laughable coverage from Dave and Tim...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 26, 2011, 08:12:03 PM
Reporting on WREG that cars floating away somewhere on Houston Levee Rd...I'm not 100% sure I heard that right because my reception is poor right now. 

Said there was flooding at Pisgah and Houston Levee. And indicated that a car could float away in as little as 18 inches of water. No reports of cars actually floating.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:13:57 PM
And of course he's dismissing it as straight-line only when it is in fact tornadic...

As usual...laughable coverage from Dave and Tim...

Kevin,

You nailed the Crittendon Co. TOR about 7 minutes before DB even mentioned it.  Since we're in SWM, that is all I'm going to say about it until later, but I wanted to put that on the record while it was still fresh on my mind. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:14:34 PM
Said there was flooding at Pisgah and Houston Levee. And indicated that a car could float away in as little as 18 inches of water. No reports of cars actually floating.

Thank you for the much-needed correction. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 08:14:56 PM
Very serious situation that is quite tornadic for Marshall Co moving towards Benton. This area always seems to spring up a significant situation in thes events...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 08:15:43 PM
Ha. This photo is everywhererrrrrrr

Thank god the rain is letting up. Water is coming into  doorway of Ellett hall at Rhodes.

Also this was the building I was in during warning FYI. It's our library.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 08:15:54 PM
(http://i51.tinypic.com/2rzutjq.png)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 08:16:09 PM
TVS marker with LLR showing up near Somerville and Bolivar,TN
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:17:09 PM
Very serious situation that is quite tornadic for Marshall Co moving towards Benton. This area always seems to spring up a significant situation in thes events...

Someone at NOAA did a microclimate tornado study and that is true from the research project.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 26, 2011, 08:17:45 PM
New 0100z SWODY1:

Quote
...NERN TX/SERN OK EWD ACROSS AR AND INTO WRN TX/NWRN MS...
   ONE CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WITH A STRONG TORNADO THREAT WAS OVER NERN
   TX AND INTO FAR NWRN LA AT 01Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY SUPPORTIVE
   OF TORNADOES...AS THE 00Z SHV SOUNDING INDICATES WITH 300-400
   EFFECTIVE SRH...AND A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE. STORMS NEAR
   AND TO THE S OF SHV HAVE SHOWN VERY GOOD STRUCTURE FOR LONG LIVED
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS
   WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS NRN LA...AND EVENTUALLY
   INTO SERN AR AND NWRN MS LATER THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE EXPANDED
   THE HIGH RISK SWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF NRN LA. FOR MORE INFORMATION
   REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 601 AND 602.
  

Just so you know, I'm pretty sure in the title "WRN TN" is meant as opposed to "WRN TX", which appears in the heading.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 08:18:24 PM
This is running a track extremely similar to the EF-3 from early morning May 2, 2010.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:18:57 PM
(http://i51.tinypic.com/2rzutjq.png)

Wow!  That is truly terrible.  It looks very serious for Holly Springs.  
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 26, 2011, 08:19:21 PM
New 0100z SWODY1:

Just so you know, I'm pretty sure in the title "WRN TN" is meant as opposed to "WRN TX", which appears in the heading.

This could be very bad for the overnight.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:21:44 PM
This could be very bad for the overnight.

Obviously, the SPC thinks the atmosphere will have no problems recharging.  I'm was sort of expecting a downgrade to MDT.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 08:22:27 PM
This thing is really trying to wrap up...people in Benton County MS including Ashland should be taking cover now...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 08:23:24 PM
Obviously, the SPC thinks the atmosphere will have no problems recharging.  I'm was sort of expecting a downgrade to MDT.

Not with the LLJ ramping up overnight....
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 08:24:02 PM
I forgot this one due to the amount of warnings coming in, but Spotters saw a tornado near Sardis,MS
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 08:28:36 PM
This thing *may* try to broaden out in the next few minutes like we saw back in Crittenden Co...not sure as of this moment...early signs of it possibly happening...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: dwagner88 on April 26, 2011, 08:28:53 PM
From the looks of the radar, Memphis is in for a "Flood of May 2010" rainfall over the next few hours. The convection appears to have set up perfectly to train right over Memphis.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Math/Met on April 26, 2011, 08:29:34 PM
Not with the LLJ ramping up overnight....

I agree. This may not materialize into a huge threat, but there is no way of knowing for sure until we see what happens when the better dynamics start moving into the region.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 08:30:06 PM
Two TVS w/LLR marker showing up right over Bolivar at the moment
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:30:56 PM
My word...another SVR for Shelby.  I can't remember how many warnings we've had in Shelby this evening. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 08:32:31 PM
TVS w/LLR marker showing up right over Bolivar at the moment

Yep, it's looking like some pretty tough straight line winds.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 26, 2011, 08:34:49 PM
992 mb low forming in South Texas.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 08:35:06 PM
Holly Springs,MS getting it on the chin right now....three tvs with multiple LLR there

Same in Bolivar,TN storm now
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on April 26, 2011, 08:35:20 PM
Southern Middle TN has cells forming.  I think the one over Lewis County is rotating slightly.  But it's just starting.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 08:40:18 PM
Ashland/Benton Co is continuing to broaden...think the Tor threat is coming down there for the moment at least...

Definitely could be a spin-up in the Chester/Hardeman Co area...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 08:41:55 PM
Only one TOR in AR right now...things aren't too impressive there at all...at least for right now. We'll see if it changes but so far...so good. Looks like mostly heavy rain to me still attm...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:42:27 PM
Just looking at the radar...it looks like Memphis is going to pick up more than the 4 inches of rain currently shown as the upper bound in the zone forecast.  I'm not using any scientific analysis but it just looks likes its setting up to be a whole lot more than that.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 08:43:08 PM
I wonder how soon the SPC will issue that watch for Middle TN/If it will be a Tor or SVR tstorm watch?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: DocB on April 26, 2011, 08:44:49 PM
sheesh - WREG giving lecture on air about folks making fun of them on twitter. Aren't there more important things at the moment?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: foshies on April 26, 2011, 08:50:55 PM
Anyone got an inside word on why and how long the MRX WSR-88D is down?  We're gonna need it soon.

Quote
000
NOUS64 KMRX 261922
FTMMRX
Message Date:  Apr 26 2011 19:22:55

KMRX INOP. DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.     
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: StormNine on April 26, 2011, 08:51:21 PM
St. Charles KY is about to get slammed by a nasty rotating cell.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 08:54:48 PM
Anyone got an inside word on why and how long the MRX WSR-88D is down?  We're gonna need it soon.


I don't know but try using KJKL(Jackson,KY) if it does not work, that would probably be able to pick up Morristown/Knoxville area, for Chattanooga use KGSP(Greer,SC) , fine time for it to go down though
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: DocB on April 26, 2011, 08:56:31 PM
Ive got friends in Pinson (S of Jackson, TN) and they are getting it now. Right under it - waiting to hear back from them.

EDIT, they see rotation but due to hills can't tell if its on ground, about 1/2 mile south of them.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 08:57:59 PM
From smartwxmodel.net (01z analysis...about 45 minutes old)

(http://smartwxmodel.net/usa.jpg)
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 09:04:49 PM
Wow...that is a huge TOR for East AR/NW MS. Don't really see much at the moment...maybe some weak circulation...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 09:06:45 PM
Wow...that is a huge TOR for East AR/NW MS. Don't really see much at the moment...maybe some weak circulation...

MEG has been doing that a lot tonight: really long/big TOR boxes. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 26, 2011, 09:08:10 PM
Wow...that is a huge TOR for East AR/NW MS. Don't really see much at the moment...maybe some weak circulation...

There is certainly rotation... It's worrisome that even being so clustered these storms are able to develop rotation. Anid if any form, they'll be rain wrapped. Probably best to warn them just due to the environment
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 09:10:19 PM
LOL...even Jim Jaggers on WREG is complaining about this AR/MS TOR...that doesn't happen over there often...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on April 26, 2011, 09:13:00 PM
I think some of these storms are too big to put down tornadoes.  You know, with enough large-scale twist in a supercell, for some reason it can no longer put a tornado down...it might be the case here.  They would rather be safe than sorry though, I guess.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 09:13:36 PM
We're going to have to see a MAJOR increase in activity across AR to see this High verify...to be completely honest. Not saying it can't happen...but so far this evening's activity has not been close to a high risk outbreak. Might be different down towards TX/LA portion of it...haven't been following down there.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: beneficii on April 26, 2011, 09:22:10 PM
SPC looking to replace the current PDS tornado watches that expire at 10 pm, per MCD.  They cite the continued presence of instability and strong low-level shear.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 09:23:06 PM
but so far this evening's activity has not been close to a high risk outbreak.

Same thing I was thinking. It usually goes like that around the MEG area.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 09:23:51 PM
SPC looking to replace the current PDS tornado watches that expire at 10 pm, per MCD.  They cite the continued presence of instability and strong low-level shear.

Noticed the MCD wasn't really that ominously worded. No talk about strong/long-tracked tornadoes anymore. Its going to have to be PDS because they didn't drop the High at 01z...but otherwise I bet they wouldn't continue the PDS wording anymore...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 26, 2011, 09:24:00 PM
Im handicapped on my radar at this time.. but from what I can tell it looks like the line that is running SPA to the big bow echo in N AR looks like its outrunning the front line thats running PB to MEM... Maybe they will converge? I wouldnt expect it to happen on the west side of mem but could that help or hurt when that happens? I would think it would help things to be less severe... QLCS?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Milodog2 on April 26, 2011, 09:28:06 PM
FYI MRX is up and running
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 09:28:18 PM
Im handicapped on my radar at this time.. but from what I can tell it looks like the line that is running SPA to the big bow echo in N AR looks like its outrunning the front line thats running PB to MEM... Maybe they will converge? I wouldnt expect it to happen on the west side of mem but could that help or hurt when that happens? I would think it would help things to be less severe... QLCS?

They could eventually merge/develop together into one big QLCS...probably would further enhance the wind threat if that happens...probably not much otherwise though.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 09:30:01 PM
Don't see much of a tornado threat at this time still but could be quite a wind situation for Tunica County that may edge into Desoto...perhaps SE Shelby later on...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2011, 09:31:02 PM
Been away for a bit, but it's looking to me like a massive swath of heavy rain and storms.

Is this not a player/hamperer in tomorrow's threat?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 09:32:18 PM
Don't see much of a tornado threat at this time still but could be quite a wind situation for Tunica County that may edge into Desoto...perhaps SE Shelby later on...

Was just looking at this and thinking the same thing.  I am just as concerned about the rainfall rates.  Kevin, how much rain do you think the metro stands to get from the looks of things?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 09:32:27 PM
Been away for a bit, but it looks like a massive area of heavy rain and storms.

Is this not a player/hamperer in tomorrow's threat?

All depends on how fast this clears out. To be honest...I haven't looked at a single thing for Tomorrow all day...so I have no clue what to expect...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 09:33:08 PM
Was just looking at this and thinking the same thing.  I am just as concerned about the rainfall rates.  Kevin, how much rain do you think the metro stands to get from the looks of things?

Another 2-4" easily...maybe more just depending on how much more true convection we get...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Johnny on April 26, 2011, 09:35:54 PM
Been away for a bit, but it's looking to me like a massive swath of heavy rain and storms.

Is this not a player/hamperer in tomorrow's threat?

Definitely not going to hamper what's going to happen tomorrow for Mid TN.  ::whistling::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 09:36:06 PM
Local law enforcement reported a tornado 6 NW Lula MS (Coahoma Co) moments ago...skeptical (especially being law enforcement)...but just FYI...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 09:36:56 PM
Little Rock is basically not getting any rain now and hasn't for quite a while now.  
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 09:37:59 PM
We always knew we would have morning convection across middle TN...question was, how fast would it clear out? And that question cannone be answered until tomorrow morning.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Shanti on April 26, 2011, 09:38:25 PM
What's anyone's thoughts on the TOR cells in Decatur county's and south?


Edit: And where's our watch??
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 09:39:05 PM
Can anyone tell me why SPC felt it not required to issue the Tor watch for middle TN, when we already have a tornado warning issued for the first storm to enter Middle TN?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Sbeagles on April 26, 2011, 09:41:24 PM
Heavy rain and a lot of lightning but not a lot of anything else at the moment.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 09:41:56 PM
New PDS watch just issued for northern LA, northern 2/3 of MS to the TN border, and extreme NW Alabama.  It looks to me like a tacit admission that the highest risk for tornadic development has shifted to the south and east of the High risk zone.  Much of the PDS watch is actually in the slight risk area.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 09:43:24 PM
Not to bash MEG, but why in the world are they doing these enormous TOR boxes?  I suppose it's just a blanket "its better safe than sorry" approach considering the current atmospheric profile?  ::shrug::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 09:55:23 PM
And there's another huge TOR for that same area...I realize there are some funnel reports but that warning still does not need to that big (and honestly it probably isn't needed at all).
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 09:56:33 PM
And there's another huge TOR for that same area...I realize there are some funnel reports but that warning still does not need to that big (and honestly it probably isn't needed at all).
They are going to burn the sirens up down here. lol
I see some decent wind out of this cell though.  There is some minor rotation on the ends.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: WXRocker on April 26, 2011, 09:57:47 PM
Can anyone tell me why SPC felt it not required to issue the Tor watch for middle TN, when we already have a tornado warning issued for the first storm to enter Middle TN?
THIS.  WTF?!.....nvm.
Quote
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

TORNADO WATCH 224 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TNC003-005-015-017-021-023-033-037-039-043-045-047-053-055-069-
071-075-077-079-081-083-085-095-097-099-101-109-111-113-117-119-
125-131-135-147-149-157-159-161-165-167-169-181-183-187-189-
271000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0224.110427T0300Z-110427T1000Z/

TN
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD              BENTON              CANNON
CARROLL              CHEATHAM            CHESTER
CROCKETT             DAVIDSON            DECATUR
DICKSON              DYER                FAYETTE
GIBSON               GILES               HARDEMAN
HARDIN               HAYWOOD             HENDERSON
HENRY                HICKMAN             HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS            LAKE                LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE             LEWIS               MACON
MADISON              MARSHALL            MAURY
MCNAIRY              MONTGOMERY          OBION
PERRY                ROBERTSON           RUTHERFORD
SHELBY               SMITH               STEWART
SUMNER               TIPTON              TROUSDALE
WAYNE                WEAKLEY             WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$


ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...LMK...PAH...LZK...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 09:59:14 PM
TOR Watch issued....
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 10:01:41 PM
THIS.  WTF?!.....nvm.

they are late to the party....
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 10:02:38 PM
Wow...the new watch for the MEG area is NOT PDS...they just went against their mandate...that should say a lot...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bigalpha on April 26, 2011, 10:02:39 PM
So the action tomorrow will be a from a different convection system than what we're getting tonight, or will it be just a continuous line of storms from this current system?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 26, 2011, 10:02:57 PM
they are late to the party....

They are kinda busy
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: justinmundie on April 26, 2011, 10:04:37 PM
Btw.... Latest Hrrr is completely out to lunch. Not even close to current conditions
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Shanti on April 26, 2011, 10:04:54 PM
So the action tomorrow will be a from a different convection system than what we're getting tonight, or will it be just a continuous line of storms from this current system?

Wondering the same...I bet whats left over and of course the new stuff developing..especially if there's cloud breaks..my take..
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 10:05:07 PM
So the action tomorrow will be a from a different convection system than what we're getting tonight, or will it be just a continuous line of storms from this current system?

Same synoptic system, but different convective conditions.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 10:05:10 PM
Some more rotation popping on the MS cell.  Still doesn't look bad yet.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 10:05:15 PM
They are going to burn the sirens up down here. lol
I see some decent wind out of this cell though.  There is some minor rotation on the ends.

Yep. They've been going off forever in the Town of Tunica. There's a lot of damage in south Tunica County from last night and farm buildings were flattened this afternoon.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 10:06:56 PM
Wow...the new watch for the MEG area is NOT PDS...they just went against their mandate...that should say a lot...

I think we can go to bed now.  ;D
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: RobD on April 26, 2011, 10:07:06 PM
Just got an oddly worded text from the Franklin (TN) FD just before the Tornado Watch came across:
Quote
Severe weather approaching Nashville area. Future alerts, warming and advisories may not be available.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 10:07:19 PM
They did a SVR...but betting MEG does a TOR for that area coming into Shelby Shortly...its weakly rotating...don't think its an imminent threat but do need to keep an eye on it...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bigalpha on April 26, 2011, 10:07:53 PM
Same synoptic system, but different convective conditions.

Thanks.  Looks like a long night tonight and a long day tomorrow. 
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2011, 10:08:32 PM
Discussion from new TOR Watch:

Quote
DISCUSSION...WITH EXPECTED INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND
   ACCOMPANYING AVAILABLE UNSTABLE AIR MASS THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   SUPERCELL.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 10:08:43 PM
They did a SVR...but betting MEG does a TOR for that area coming into Shelby Shortly...its weakly rotating...don't think its an imminent threat but do need to keep an eye on it...

Hope not...no need to keep people up unless threat is significant.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 10:09:03 PM
Just got an oddly worded text from the Franklin (TN) FD just before the Tornado Watch came across:

What does that mean, they won't be sending out alerts or there is a problem with OHX?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 10:09:10 PM
Just saw a plane take off from Memphis International heading south.  That has to be an incredible view from the air!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 10:10:21 PM
Lots of TVSs popping on the NW MS cell.
Kevin, you seeing anything wrapping up?  Seem like the south end is slowly trying to organize.

Edit:  As well as the north.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 10:11:26 PM
Lots of TVSs popping on the NW MS cell.
Kevin, you seeing anything wrapping up?  Seem like the south end is slowly trying to organize.
So far...not tightly. The stuff down South seems to be more gust-front based...if anything goes tornadic its the one coming into Shelby County now honestly...still don't see anything major yet though.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Shanti on April 26, 2011, 10:11:45 PM
Just got an oddly worded text from the Franklin (TN) FD just before the Tornado Watch came across:
edit.
Quote
Severe weather approaching Nashville area. Future alerts, warming and advisories may not be available.
don't like the sound of that..radars and radio's are acting kinda flaky here..
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: sbradley1979 on April 26, 2011, 10:12:20 PM
I just have to say that I hate nighttime storms.  I'm the only person up because I just can't stop hitting F5.  I just heard my first rumble of thunder.

For what it's worth, I was in Knoxville yesterday and got caught outside at around 6:30 EDT with that darn storm.  Stuck in an alcove of a building watching the trees blow down.  That's about as close as I've ever came to being "in" a storm.  The winds were changing direction every few minutes.  It was a pretty awesome sight.  ::wow::
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 10:13:08 PM
don't like the sound of that..radars and radio's are acting kinda flaky here..

Hey Robd, can I pass that on to Charlie Neese at News Channel 5(via twitter) and see what he has to say about it?

And if so, where is this again exactly?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 10:20:29 PM
Rain Wrapped Tornado report unconfirmed close to Linden.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Sbeagles on April 26, 2011, 10:20:56 PM
Looks like its about to get bumpy down here on the river.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: RobD on April 26, 2011, 10:21:08 PM
OK: clarifying note. I get the texts from nixle for all Franklin emergency services. The text I got said exactly what I posted. I just checked my email and they've sent a more detailed message there:
Quote
Severe weather approaching Nashville area. Future alerts, warnings, and advisories may not be available.
Large areas of severe weather continue to approach the Nashville/Middle Tennessee area. You are urged to begin preparations now for the potential of strong winds, hail, cloud to ground lightning, and the possibility of tornadoes.

Due to network connectivity issues, alerts, warnings, and advisories normally issued by the Franklin Fire Department through Nixle may not be available during forthcoming critical weather events.

As always, NOAA weather radios provide early notification for any Watches or Warnings that may be issued by the National Weather Service. Local television and radio media can also provide important updates and information on warnings.

When notified of a Tornado Warning by The National Weather Service/local media, seek immediate shelter in your safe place such as an interior closet or bathroom on the lower level of your home.

Updates will be provided whenever poossible; however, at this time you are urged to seek your primary weather-related safety information from other sources.

Sorry for the confusion, but the text alone sounded very alarmist!

And sure you can send it to Charlie Neese if you still think it's worth it.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 10:22:23 PM
OK: clarifying note. I get the texts from nixle for all Franklin emergency services. The text I got said exactly what I posted. I just checked my email and they've sent a more detailed message there:
Sorry for the confusion, but the text alone sounded very alarmist!

And sure you can send it to Charlie Neese if you still think it's worth it.

Ok, I understand now, thanks for clarifying
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: BryanBarrett on April 26, 2011, 10:23:15 PM
Hey Robd, can I pass that on to Charlie Neese at News Channel 5(via twitter) and see what he has to say about it?

And if so, where is this again exactly?
Hey Robd, can I pass that on to Charlie Neese at News Channel 5(via twitter) and see what he has to say about it?

And if so, where is this again exactly?
likely means they will be too busy (Franklin PD) to do much advising. Just a guess.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 10:27:08 PM
I have several people online with me feeding live reports from Hickman County/Centerville and Fairview. I am in Bellevue in SW Davidson.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: toastido on April 26, 2011, 10:28:55 PM
This may be my last post until this event ends. We are ramping up operations here in HSV beginning early am and likely lasting through tomorrow evening (and longer, if needed).

I just wanted to say to EVERYONE here:  Be safe. HEED ANY AND ALL WARNINGS. And lastly, Godspeed and I hope to see everyone on here when all is said and done.

-Toast
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2011, 10:29:38 PM
Looks like Cantore went to the wrong place. I dont think Arkadelphia has had barely a drop since he got there. The I-30 corridor has been in between lines of storms all night.

FWIW- Those lines are starting to converge. I believe we are seeing the makings of the coming deluge.

Spigot- activate.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 10:31:19 PM
Toastido before careful down there too!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Sbeagles on April 26, 2011, 10:31:48 PM
pea sized hail falling vivid lightning thats all for now
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 10:31:57 PM
Well that storm in Desoto was anti-climatic.  It barely even rained.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: mempho on April 26, 2011, 10:35:10 PM
Well that storm in Desoto was anti-climatic.  It barely even rained.

What's with the constant tornado warnings down there?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 10:35:50 PM
Anyone directly South of Linden?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Sbeagles on April 26, 2011, 10:37:08 PM
Anyone directly South of Linden?
Yes I am just south west of Linden.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 10:38:55 PM
What's with the constant tornado warnings down there?

Slow moving storms + 4 county wide TOR boxes...  I honestly have no idea.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 26, 2011, 10:39:25 PM
Report as you can but take cover if needed...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2011, 10:44:45 PM
Tornado threat looks about done for Memphis... time to deploy the boats!
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: bugalou on April 26, 2011, 10:44:57 PM
Getting so pretty heavy rain now.  I think the rain train is setting up here.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Sbeagles on April 26, 2011, 10:45:12 PM
Large hail falling now, wind has picked up, constant lightning. Nothing to incredible yet.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Shanti on April 26, 2011, 10:47:38 PM
I have several people online with me feeding live reports from Hickman County/Centerville and Fairview. I am in Bellevue in SW Davidson.
so am I...I'm around the Chaffins Barn Dinner Theater/loveless cafe..what are your thoughts on the storms that will be heading into  Fairview/etc soon? My radio's acting flaky for some reason..thanks in advance
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 10:50:37 PM
Can't help but say yet again...MEG comes off quite lucky...even though we probably finally have had a few confirmed tornadoes tonight. No outright disasters involving strong/long-tracked tornadoes as it appears at this point involving injury/death. That's great news for a high risk day with all these PDS watches and tornado warnings...we've clearly had an underperforming event at the least. No warnings left in AR.

Of course...still some severe...maybe small tornado risk is there...but this is mostly a heavy rain/flooding event from now on. Hopefully we won't go beyond that...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 10:50:58 PM
Quote
1134 PM     LIGHTNING        BEAVER DAM              37.41N  86.88W
04/26/2011                   OHIO               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PERSON STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. EXTENT OF INJURIES UNKNOWN.


We don't stress it enough when talking about severe weather, but please take lightning very seriously. Its threat is overlooked way too often...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: ultra mag on April 26, 2011, 10:51:56 PM
 so is there still a threat for west tn in the am ?
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 10:53:20 PM
It will be really interesting to see if Waverly storm holds together, could get into Nashville if it does
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Sbeagles on April 26, 2011, 10:54:48 PM
Wind just exploded a minute ago I am in hall so cant say what they are gusting to but they are howling.
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Charles L. on April 26, 2011, 10:55:23 PM
so is there still a threat for west tn in the am ?

Yes, the Tornado Watch is out until 5 am...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on April 26, 2011, 10:56:08 PM
about how has this system faired compared to expectations? looking forward to some nice storms tomorrow here in etn
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Timothy on April 26, 2011, 10:56:49 PM
structural damage and trees down in Linden...per NewsChannel 5 Nashville, per Skywarn Spotter
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 10:57:53 PM
MEG's conservative team must have taken over the radar in the last hour with the way their warnings have trended since then. Much of Fayette County doesn't even have a SVR and honestly earlier these same storms likely would have had TORs...but we'll have to see if what happened last night happens again...where all of a sudden TORs started flying out again....
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 10:58:57 PM
about how has this system faired compared to expectations? looking forward to some nice storms tomorrow here in etn
Today's threat...while it has borne out some actual tornadoes in places most likely...as well as several reports of hail and wind damage...it hasn't been nearly as severe as forecast/feared.

Keep in mind this doesn't necessarily mean the same will play out tomorrow...
Title: Re: **SWM** SevereWx 4/25-27
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 26, 2011, 11:04:16 PM