Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => TNWx Vault of Fame and Infamy => Topic started by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2010, 08:01:06 PM

Title: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 26, 2010, 08:01:06 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 26, 2010, 08:06:08 PM
nice job ct. a topic i think will be talked about quite a bit, weather it be for floodiing issues, or some severe, or even both. ::applause::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 26, 2010, 08:47:09 PM
 ::rofl::

SOME type of weather is ALWAYS possible. Good job on the "uncertainty"  >:D
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on April 27, 2010, 07:09:36 AM
Vague...yet..the most accurate forecast I've ever come across.

 ::bacon::  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 27, 2010, 07:32:40 AM
On a cursory glance this morning, it appears QPFs may have backed off a little..  Albeit slightly (still ranging in the 2.5-5" range), it's still better than the earlier progged totals..

Also, it appears the severe possibilities are shifting further N/NW thanks in part to a weak high pressure system building in by mid-week.

EDIT: Added BUFR sounding for 5/1/10 @ 4pm CDT when the instability is highest.  Doesn't look very severe....  I'd post for Nashville, but the numbers are even less impressive, with the exception of QPF being slightly higher.

(http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b125/toastido/Screenshot2010-04-27at74027AM.png)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Cameron K. on April 27, 2010, 11:12:46 AM
I guess I would be more currious about the 2nd as far as severe weather goes. Still out a bit, but what would be your thoughts on the 2nd low to form in the gulf states and track north-northeast. To me that looks interesting, but I have no clue about the dynamics yet.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Cameron K. on April 27, 2010, 11:28:34 AM
Looking at some of the dynamics on 12z GFS now. It seems like they stay off to our west in AR, eastern TX, and LA. If it were to stay that way I suppose the SPC would release a slight risk for that area at most.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 27, 2010, 01:10:54 PM
Guys/Gals:

Let's keep on topic for this weekends system.

The stuff coming through today is wrap-around from the previous system.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 27, 2010, 05:18:20 PM
From HUN:

Quote
000
FXUS64 KHUN 272024
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
324 PM CDT TUE APR 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW NOW OVER ERN TN WITH TROF AXIS APPROACHING
THE AL/GA BORDER. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/LOW FREEZING LEVELS WE
HAD NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. WE
ALSO HAD A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN SOME STRONGER CELLS.

TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA GOING FOR
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ALL PCPN TO END BY 10
PM...NO SVR WX. AGAIN PEA HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
INTO THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY.

REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST...WENT MAINLY WITH THE GFS. THE BOTTOM
LINE ATTM LOOKS LIKE A CDFNT WILL STALL OUT FROM CENTRAL AR THRU
WRN KY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...DUE TO A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SERN COAST AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STALLED
FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN THIS WEEKEND.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC OF SVR WX WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT
. THEN MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
SUNDAY MAY BE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AS THE CDFNT IS PROGGED
BY GFS TO BE OVER THE TN VALLEY. THEN BY MONDAY THE CDFNT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA. ON TUESDAY A SFC WAVE SHOULD
MOVE INTO GA TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT.

HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST IS LOW...BUT ATTM IT
DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSETTLED/STORMY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

Interesting.. I didn't see any parameters that suggested much at all in the way of severe...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 28, 2010, 05:33:22 AM
SPC has most of middle TN in a Day 4 risk zone and on the Day 3 slight risk...they are thinking about upgrading to MDT in later outlooks. The MDT zone almost looks like the identical spot they put it last Friday.

This event doesn't concern me as bad as last weekend did, problem is though that the models have been increasing instability each run and if that continues...then I will be more concerned.

But it almost will be a deja vu type scenario. We will have heavy rain around and possibly "junk convection", but once that clears out...we may see things "light up" a bit.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on April 28, 2010, 08:27:49 AM
I bet AR gets in on the action this time.  GFS progs CAPE values ~2000+j/kg and they appear to be underneath the best upper level support.  As for us...I don't know.  H7 really never drys out until the front passes, however, CAPE values and Tds are supportive of strong convection.   ::pondering::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on April 28, 2010, 08:48:08 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2010/day48prob_20100428_1200.gif)

Quote
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CDT WED APR 28 2010
  
   VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
  
   ...DISCUSSION...
  
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT BY EARLY DAY 4 /SATURDAY/ THE UPPER PATTERN
   WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A BROAD DOUBLE VORTEX POSITIVE TILT UPPER
   TROUGH WITH ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
   LAKES AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH ACROSS NRN MEXICO.
   THE FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE DEEP
   LAYER WINDS. GFS...ECMWF AND MOST MREF MEMBERS EJECT A SIGNIFICANT
   IMPULSE NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE LOWER MS...TN
   AND OH VALLEYS MAINTAINING INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIGRATORY LOW
   LEVEL JET. THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
   OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE DELINEATED RISK AREA.  
  
   BEYOND DAY 4 MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE RESULTING IN
   DECREASING PREDICTABILITY.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on April 28, 2010, 09:28:31 AM
*Note:  Day 4 info cannot be retrieved from the Archive Page -- Picture will likely change*

You can get the extended 4-8 day graphic archives.  You just have to go about it a different way.  On the Day 4-8 Convective Outlook page (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/), there's a "Get Outlooks" button at the bottom of the page that allows pulling outlooks by date from the archives.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on April 28, 2010, 09:31:49 AM
You can get the extended 4-8 day graphic archives.  You just have to go about it a different way.  On the Day 4-8 Convective Outlook page (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/), you click the "Get Outlooks" button at the bottom of the page with the date you want to pull from the archives.

 ::doh::

I blame the meds.


 ::guitar::

I hear banjo music...being played by a guitar....    ::whistling::



There...changed..
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2010, 10:44:07 AM
Friday-Friday Night and potentially Saturday are looking more and more interesting and concerning to me...especially from West TN Westward in this immediate area. All modes of severe would be possible with a directionally-sheared profile and favorable hodographs...juxtaposed with 1000-2000 MLCAPE Values and rather steep mid-level lapse rates.

Still some details to be ironed out regarding development/strength/track of surface low to the NW...and whatever happens Friday will greatly impact any potential Saturday. Right now SPC/MEG look spot-on with my thoughts for Friday at this time...so refer to their outlooks for more.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 28, 2010, 11:12:49 AM
Friday-Friday Night and potentially Saturday are looking more and more interesting and concerning to me...especially from West TN Westward in this immediate area. All modes of severe would be possible with a directionally-sheared profile and favorable hodographs...juxtaposed with 1000-2000 MLCAPE Values and rather steep mid-level lapse rates.

Still some details to be ironed out regarding development/strength/track of surface low to the NW...and whatever happens Friday will greatly impact any potential Saturday. Right now SPC/MEG look spot-on with my thoughts for Friday at this time...so refer to their outlooks for more.

Depending on how things go on the home front, I might be out chasing around your area this weekend.  I refuse to chase alone, so it kinda depends on if my chase partner follows through.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2010, 11:58:19 AM
We may be seeing you around the region then, toastido ;)

You guys know I was never a fan of last weekend for a really big event in this region...I'm getting a much different feeling about this one...to be honest...though admittedly it may be more AR than this state taking the brunt. That's close enough...especially considering the MEG CWA. Obviously there is still room for change and forecast/modeling error one way or another...

Saturday would have more of the state possibly in a severe weather threat...but what happens there may be heavily dependent again on what happens Friday.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 28, 2010, 12:22:08 PM
I sure hope that the GFS is having some feedback problems. It now has the precip max right over the Chattanooga area. And it is back up to over 7 inches. I need the rain, but not all at once!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2010, 12:47:39 PM
Here is the 1 AM 250mb windspeed map from this morning's GFS...basically plotting the upper level jet...

(http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2010/04/28/12/GFS_3_2010042812_F66_WSPD_250_MB.png)

This screams trouble for AR...West TN...and North MS...maybe into SE MO...W KY as well...split upper flow...the Midsouth right in the Left Front Quadrant of the Southern Stream...climatologically speaking...this look is associated with evening tornado outbreaks in the MidSouth. MLCAPE values at this time still over 1000 j/kg...surface winds have veered a little...but still SSE...while remaing WSW to SW aloft...the low level jet at over 60kts...it appears on the GFS a pre-frontal trough is working into East Arkansas...which would be the focal point for superells at that point...spreading into the area.

This is all model data...and may be honestly 100% wrong...but this is exactly the type of stuff I was looking for last weekend up this way and never did see...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 28, 2010, 01:28:23 PM
This is all model data...and may be honestly 100% wrong...but this is exactly the type of stuff I was looking for last weekend up this way and never did see...


You seemed more "skeptical" with the last system though....or maybe that's just my read.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2010, 01:31:10 PM

You seemed more "skeptical" with the last system though....or maybe that's just my read.
That's because I was. I was never convinced of a big event in this area with that system. This one...while there's no way to say 100% right now...has vastly different potential in my mind right now...at least for West TN. Not ready to commit for Middle/East sections as that's more for Saturday...and much more in question I think.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2010, 01:34:54 PM
FWIW...I've changed the topic title to better reflect the emerging threat potential for Friday-Saturday...this may be extended/further adjusted as necessary.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on April 28, 2010, 02:02:35 PM

You seemed more "skeptical" with the last system though....or maybe that's just my read.

He meant that the kinds of signals he's seeing now for the system this weekend... was what he was looking for in order to be on board for the significant severe weather threat last weekend, which he didn't see at the time, in spite of what the SPC and other offices were saying.

But, he sees it now with the system this weekend.  Just to help clarify.  :)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 28, 2010, 02:06:06 PM
He meant that the kinds of signals he's seeing now for the system this weekend... was what he was looking for in order to be on board for the significant severe weather threat last weekend, which he didn't see at the time, in spite of what the SPC and other offices were saying.

But, he sees it now with the system this weekend.  Just to help clarify.  :)
You obviously read into that post much better than I did...thanks.  :D
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 28, 2010, 05:37:59 PM
From HUN:

Quote
000
FXUS64 KHUN 281948
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
248 PM CDT WED APR 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA THIS PAST WEEKEND. W/SW FLOW IS BEGINNING TO SET UP
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SPINNING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

OTHER THAN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD THAT WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AND
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST...RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE REGION AS THE SWRLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES...
NEARING THE 80-DEGREE MARK. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THE SREF SHOWS PRECIP AFFECTING THE
AL/MS STATE LINE IN NW AL AROUND 15Z FRIDAY WHEREAS THE GFS SPREADS
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. A QUICK GLANCE AT MOS
GUIDANCE HINTS AT POPS AS EARLY AS 12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE
OPTIONS...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z
ON FRIDAY ATTM.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET /40KT/ ACROSS THE AREA...THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SOME STORMS WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...THOUGH A REPEAT OF LAST WEEKEND`S SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK IS NOT EXPECTED
. THE BETTER THERMODYNAMICS WILL
PREDOMINATELY SET UP JUST THE WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS NRN MS...SO
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...BUT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY.


THE ATTENTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TURNS TO THE STALLING
COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE AREA. AN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A GLANCE AT THE HPC 5-DAY PRECIP GRAPHIC
PAINTS A 6 INCH BULLSEYE IN NE MS...AND THIS ONLY INCLUDES TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY
. PWATS DURING THIS TIME ARE ABOVE 2 INCHES AND STRONG
SWRLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE HIGHER THAN 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE 5-DAY PERIOD OF SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THIS
OCCURS...FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR AS WELL AS RISES ON AREA LAKES
AND RIVERS. AN ESF WILL BE ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE IMPACTS FROM THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM AND WORDING WAS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE HWO.

BEYOND THE NEVER-ENDING RAINFALL OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH MIDWEEK...
DRY WEATHER WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 28, 2010, 06:03:08 PM
OHX mentioned in their afternoon AFD that this weekend is the start of a "wet pattern".

Things are looking more a more volatile for us, still looks like the western areas of TN will be under the gun and Friday is, "the big day" but enough instability will be around for a severe day for us it appears.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 28, 2010, 07:10:20 PM
So I am going to six flags in atlanta this weekend. I can go either saturday or sunday. Based on the current forecast, which day should I go? Or should I plan on taking the GF shopping indoors instead?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 28, 2010, 07:10:58 PM
So I am going to six flags in atlanta this weekend. I can go either saturday or sunday. Based on the current forecast, which day should I go? Or should I plan on taking the GF shopping indoors instead?

I'd say Sat. is your best bet.  System likely won't make it that far east until Sunday.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on April 28, 2010, 07:26:15 PM
I would go saturday being that far east. You should also consider having to go shopping!! I don't think anyone really enjoys that it's just women's way to torment men.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Matt Brawner on April 28, 2010, 09:35:37 PM
Too early for the Severe Weather predicting, but this is pretty sure.... it is going to be WET!!! QPF painting some big totals for areas in the South/  ::rain::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 28, 2010, 10:06:04 PM
I would go saturday being that far east. You should also consider having to go shopping!! I don't think anyone really enjoys that it's just women's way to torment men.

Indeed. I usually just let her drop me off at fry's electronics. I could spend a week in there. That way we are both happy.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on April 29, 2010, 04:57:51 AM
Day 3 (Saturday) shows Slight Risk, but notice the hatched area already:

(http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day3otlk_20100429_0730_prt.gif)

(http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day3prob_20100429_0730_prt.gif)

Quote
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT THU APR 29 2010
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...TN AND OH VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD DOUBLE VORTEX
   POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL LIFT
   NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH INITIALLY OVER NRN MEXICO SATURDAY MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD
   REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
   BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH ERN TX. A
   SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NEWD ALONG THE FRONT
   THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING
   SRN BRANCH JET STREAK. THIS WILL ACCELERATE EWD SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   FRONT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
   
   
   ...LOWER MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS...
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS
   INITIAL LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NWD INTO SRN ONTARIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...MODERATE SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAINTAINING INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE.
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT DIABATIC WARMING
   OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG EXCEPT
   OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WHERE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL
   PERSIST. AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF
   ONGOING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   REMAIN SUFFICIENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE LOW
   LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING IMPULSE. STORMS WILL
   LIKELY REDEVELOP AHEAD OF EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   AND HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A
   THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CONDITIONAL UPON
   SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THREAT WILL EXPAND NEWD ALONG
   MIGRATORY LOW-LEVEL JET TOWARD THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/29/2010
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 29, 2010, 05:04:40 AM
yeah noticed that. i thought 30 percent waranted at least a moderate risk.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on April 29, 2010, 05:41:14 AM
yeah noticed that. i thought 30 percent waranted at least a moderate risk.

SPC wont place a moderate on Day 3- too many factors at play, but potential is there. They will however hatch to make one aware of the potential threat. Just like last Sat, ongoing convection from Friday night could hamper Sat event. They are cautious at this point.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 29, 2010, 08:23:31 AM
yeah noticed that. i thought 30 percent waranted at least a moderate risk.

There's only 15% probs on the day 3 at this point. Hatched means 10% or greater of significant severe. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 29, 2010, 09:04:57 AM
From HUN - Doesn't look like they're too concerned over the Severe aspect of this system, more so the flooding threat:

Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
355 AM CDT THU APR 29 2010

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-291830-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
355 AM CDT THU APR 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS AT THIS TIME.

MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE
PRESENCE OF A VERY WET AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE UP TO 2
TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR AN ELEVATED FLOOD THREAT THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$

DJN
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 29, 2010, 10:21:27 AM
So is it looking less likely that those gfs rainfall totals were the result of convective feedback? It had me in a bullseye of 7 + last time I checked it.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 29, 2010, 10:23:07 AM
So is it looking less likely that those gfs rainfall totals were the result of convective feedback? It had me in a bullseye of 7 + last time I checked it.

I think *SOME* of it may be feedback, but this system is going to have a LOT of precipitable water with it.  Maybe not 7+ inches, but probably a least a good 3-4+.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on April 29, 2010, 10:52:07 AM
Last night's GFS cranked out over 8 inches at KMEM. I am not sure this is accurate but models consistently are predicting 5-7 inches with each run. After KMEM's 3.3 inches last Saturday, April is going to be one wet month when its all said and done.

Severe looks to be more concentrated from West to West Mid TN/North MS/W KY for now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 29, 2010, 11:13:17 AM
Well mrx is paying attention. I'm not sure if I remember having one of these issued so far ahead of an event.
Quote
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NCC039-043-TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067-
073-089-091-093-105-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-153-155-
163-171-173-179-VAC105-167-169-191-195-300900-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
754 AM EDT THU APR 29 2010 /654 AM CDT THU APR 29 2010/

...PROLONGED RAINS THIS WEEKEND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING...


A MAJOR SPRING RAIN SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
MAY BRING HUGE AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. DIFFERENT COMPUTER MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING AND
AMOUNTS AND SO IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO WATCH CLOSELY AND SEE
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN DEVELOPS AND HOW FAST IT MOVES.

RIVERS IN EAST TENNESSEE...EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA ARE ON THE LOW SIDE. ALSO...TOTAL RAIN
THIS YEAR HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL HELP TO
LESSEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING. NEVERTHELESS...PLEASE KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT THIS WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN TENNESSEE WILL ISSUE
UPDATES TO THIS NOTICE...AS NEEDED.



$$


BB



Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2010, 11:24:22 AM
Just a few morning thoughts...

Overall not much change in thinking. A few concerns for Friday...but many parameters still appear to be coming together...especially over the state of AR...but this may spread into adjacent portions of TN/MS by late evening/early morning Saturday...and after the nocturnal LLJ further enhances low level shear...while surface CAPE remains around or over ~1000 j/kg. This could be a situation where the best tornado threat happens after the LLJ intensifies. Again...can't disagree at all with the current SPC Day 2...and it may be upgraded to Moderate Risk at some point...

My concern for Saturday is growing for an event that could be as substantial...maybe even moreso...than Friday...especially from about I-40 southward and again West TN more than any part of the state...though the threat could at least reach to I-65. Some CAPE parameters approaching 2000 j/kg with still high directional shear and favorable hodographs...I will add that Saturday still has a degree of uncertainty inherent in exact convective evolution from the previous night and so forth...but the potential at the very least is increasing...

The heavy rainfall/flooding threat remain...amounts 3-6"...locally higher...continue to look likely.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2010, 11:54:02 AM
My main issue I'm seeing with Friday at this point is with lapse rates. They're not very ideal...especially in the low levels...and while there is no significant capping inversion (there is a weak one) storms dealing with these more marginal lapse rates may have a tough time organizing...and especially producing tornadoes. The increase in the LLJ and its associated wind transport helps increase the lapse rates after sunset...and that is why I think the best threat may occur after then...especially from 9 PM onward. Still...this would be the one "fly in the ointment" if there ends up being one to cause Friday to go the way of a bust. Its not enough of an issue for me right now to back off...but this is what I'll probably be watching most closely over the next 24 hours. Saturday doesn't have as big of a problem with this as Friday...its more about ongoing convection/cloudcover...etc.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2010, 01:00:21 PM
MEG will be holding a teleconference for EM...Spotters...and Media Partners...etc...at 1:30 PM. If there is anything substantial from it I will pass it along...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 29, 2010, 01:45:53 PM
MEG confidence in severe is Low-Mod Friday...Mod Saturday...for flooding is Mod Friday...High Saturday...more substantial threat of severe weather/tornadoes looks to set up south of I-40 Saturday and West of the MS River Friday...severe threat may shift north of I-40 Saturday but not much confidence in that at this time...Flash flooding trumps all threats at this point in terms of potential signficance/widespread occurrence (4-8" with up to 10" locally) but severe threat is not to be downplayed...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 29, 2010, 01:51:12 PM
MEG will be holding a teleconference for EM...Spotters...and Media Partners...etc...at 1:30 PM. If there is anything substantial from it I will pass it along...

HUN is doing a briefing at 2pm..  If anything stands out I'll pass it along, but I have a feeling it's going to be less about the severe threat (which looks marginal at best) and more about the flooding potential.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 29, 2010, 01:53:00 PM
Holy Noah... we might need your Ark...

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 29, 2010, 02:09:32 PM
HUN is doing a briefing at 2pm..  If anything stands out I'll pass it along, but I have a feeling it's going to be less about the severe threat (which looks marginal at best) and more about the flooding potential.

Just as I suspected.  Touched on the possible SVR threat, but noted that it wasn't likely, and would mainly be to our west, but *IS* possible in the CWFA.  Big discussion on flooding potential, with anywhere from 4-7 inches of rainfall possible between Friday and Monday night, with a chance of more rainfall Tue-Wed.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on April 29, 2010, 03:59:11 PM
Quote
Flash Flood Watch

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

.A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO STALL OUT
AS IT ENTERS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-300945-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.A.0003.100430T1800Z-100503T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-
PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-
ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-
CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
HELENA...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...SOUTHAVE N...OLIVE BRANCH...
CORINTH...IUKA...TUNICA...BOONEVILLE...CLARK SDALE...BATESVILLE...
OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...TUPELO...AMORY...ABERDEEN...UNION CITY...
MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBO LDT...MILAN...
HUNTINGDON...COVINGTON...JACKSON...LEXINGTON ...BARTLETT...
GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLIN GTON...SOMERVILLE...
BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH
346 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
  AND WEST TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... IN EAST
  ARKANSAS...CLAY...CRAIGHEAD...CRITTENDEN...C ROSS...
  GREENE...LAWRENCE...LEE...MISSISSIPPI...PHIL LIPS...POINSETT...
  RANDOLPH AND ST. FRANCIS. IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ALCORN...
  BENTON...CALHOUN...CHICKASAW...COAHOMA...DES OTO...ITAWAMBA...
  LAFAYETTE...LEE...MARSHALL...MONROE...PANOLA ...PONTOTOC...
  PRENTISS...QUITMAN...TALLAHATCHIE...TATE...T IPPAH...
  TISHOMINGO...TUNICA...UNION AND YALOBUSHA. IN SOUTHEAST
  MISSOURI...DUNKLIN AND PEMISCOT. IN WEST TENNESSEE...CARROLL...
  CHESTER...CROCKETT...DECATUR...DYER...FAYETT E...GIBSON...
  HARDEMAN...HARDIN...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...HE NRY...LAKE...
  LAUDERDALE...MADISON...MCNAIRY...OBION...SHE LBY...TIPTON AND
  WEAKLEY.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
  REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STORM
  TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED
  AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY RESULT IN
  FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOWLAND AND RIVER FLOODING LIKELY TO
  CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BORGHOFF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
342 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...

.A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS
STATES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH...AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION
WILL ACT IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER IMPULSES AND TRIGGER SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING. THE ZONE OF GREATEST CONCERN IS WESTERN
KENTUCKY...THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-301000-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FF.A.0001.100501T0000Z-100503T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...S HAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOW N...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN. ..CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD... SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCE TON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDER SON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE.. .MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
342 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
  ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

* FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
  SUNDAY...AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
  PRINCETON INDIANA TO DEXTER MISSOURI...INCLUDING NEARLY ALL OF
  WEST KENTUCKY...WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH
  SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE MORE THAN 5 INCHES OF RAIN. FROM
  GREENVILLE MISSOURI...NORTH AND EAST TO WEST FRANKFORT AND MOUNT
  CARMEL...AND POINTS NORTH...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
  FORECAST...WITH A FEW LOCALES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES.

* THIS 48 HOUR RAIN EVENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES
  IN SMALL CREEKS...RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LAND
  AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL LIKELY FLOOD. WE ALSO EXPECT MANY
  AREAS TO EXPERIENCE FLOODED ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT
  TYPICALLY FLOOD. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OF CONSIDERABLE CONCERN
  AS WELL...IN ENHANCED AND PERSISTENT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

NOLES
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 PM EDT THU APR 29 2010

...SEVERAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS AND RESULTANT
FLOODING PROBLEMS...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER
MORE POTENT FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-300330-
/O.NEW.KLMK.FF.A.0001.100501T1200Z-100503T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG... BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...L A GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOW N...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VE RSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...S PRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...H ODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND... MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CA MPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMO NTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
329 PM EDT THU APR 29 2010 /229 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND KENTUCKY...
 INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN INDIANA...CLARK IN...
 CRAWFORD IN...DUBOIS IN...FLOYD IN...HARRISON IN...JEFFERSON
 IN...ORANGE IN...PERRY IN...SCOTT IN AND WASHINGTON IN. IN
 KENTUCKY...ADAIR KY...ALLEN KY...ANDERSON KY...BARREN KY...
 BOURBON KY...BOYLE KY...BRECKINRIDGE KY...BULLITT KY...BUTLER
 KY...CASEY KY...CLARK KY...CLINTON KY...CUMBERLAND KY...
 EDMONSON KY...FAYETTE KY...FRANKLIN KY...GARRARD KY...GRAYSON
 KY...GREEN KY...HANCOCK KY...HARDIN KY...HARRISON KY...HART
 KY...HENRY KY...JEFFERSON KY...JESSAMINE KY...LARUE KY...
 LINCOLN KY...LOGAN KY...MADISON KY...MARION KY...MEADE KY...
 MERCER KY...METCALFE KY...MONROE KY...NELSON KY...NICHOLAS
 KY...OHIO KY...OLDHAM KY...RUSSELL KY...SCOTT KY...SHELBY KY...
 SIMPSON KY...SPENCER KY...TAYLOR KY...TRIMBLE KY...WARREN KY...
 WASHINGTON KY AND WOODFORD KY.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
  STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
  FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DECLINE IN COVERAGE BY
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS FIRST EPISODE COULD PRODUCE
  RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. A SECOND MORE POTENT FRONT
  WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
  EVEN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ANOTHER 1 TO
  2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SECOND EPISODE...WITH
  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS BY THE END OF SUNDAY RANGING FROM 2
  TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 OR MORE INCHES OF
  RAINFALL IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND COULD
  CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME
  AREAS LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT FOR THE REGION.
  WITH THE EXTREME LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS...AND LOCALLY
  HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 5 INCHES IN PLACES...FLASH FLOODING IS
  VERY LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. STAY ABREAST OF THE
SITUATION BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

&&

$$


AL/AML

yumpin' yiminy!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 29, 2010, 04:52:02 PM
yeah the music fest in memphis which i was planning on going, might have to be called the flood fest ::drowning::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on April 29, 2010, 06:08:43 PM
The Record Wettest Day  here in Bemis, Tn is 10.50 " ::drowning:: on Sept. 26, 2002 !
I hope that record is Not broken.
::flag::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on April 29, 2010, 06:52:50 PM
Holy Noah... we might need your Ark...
we might be in luck!!! http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1985830,00.html (http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1985830,00.html)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 29, 2010, 08:00:54 PM
I know that this is convective and impossible to pin down, but the 18z gfs screws east tn. Less than an inch of precip through Tuesday. I'm gonna be really disappointed if that happens.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 29, 2010, 08:06:50 PM
you can have some of my rain dwagner.there just calling for 6 - 10 here locally 12 inches. i be glad to share with you my friend
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Woodvegas on April 29, 2010, 08:35:35 PM
If this could only happen in the winter with subfreezing temps...

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: pandadug on April 29, 2010, 08:53:06 PM
Hello everyone! I rarely input on this forum, but I always come here when severe weather threatens middle TN to keep on top of things. I've keep some other weather webpages handy but I'm lacking in one item: I've failed to find any streaming TV on the internet reporting on Nashville severe weather. I usually unplug my TV when I think a storm is getting too close and hang with only the computer until the last minute, and I miss the excellent coverage that our local stations provide. I think Channel 2 sometimes broadcasts on 99.7FM? That's all I've been able to find. Does anyone know of some other sites? Thanks!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: shaft311 on April 29, 2010, 08:54:04 PM
It looks like we may have another one of these weeks (taken in 2002 @ Percy Priest Dam):

(http://www.lxcoupe.com/images/dam.jpg)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on April 29, 2010, 09:20:48 PM
Hello everyone! I rarely input on this forum, but I always come here when severe weather threatens middle TN to keep on top of things. I've keep some other weather webpages handy but I'm lacking in one item: I've failed to find any streaming TV on the internet reporting on Nashville severe weather. I usually unplug my TV when I think a storm is getting too close and hang with only the computer until the last minute, and I miss the excellent coverage that our local stations provide. I think Channel 2 sometimes broadcasts on 99.7FM? That's all I've been able to find. Does anyone know of some other sites? Thanks!

Do you have a NOAA weather radio?  Never can go wrong there.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 29, 2010, 09:50:22 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image_full3.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 29, 2010, 10:01:15 PM
the 0z nam looks like it wants to slow this sytem down even more/ ::drowning::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 29, 2010, 10:20:34 PM
New HPC 5 day precip shifts the heaviest rain into MS, but actually has a more widespread heavy rain over the entire state of TN except the NE tip than the previous outlook.
(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif)
 More than 6 inches basin average during a covective event is going to result in some VERY high localized totals.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 05:44:10 AM
SPC has a slight risk up for all of middle TN both tomorrow and Sunday.

Damaging winds will be the main threat with this system, along with flooding, but large hail and a tornado or two is a secondary threat.

Shear isn't as big this time around, but big enough that we could see a tornado or two spin to the ground...much higher damaging wind threat though.

Thoughts???
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 30, 2010, 08:49:44 AM
WOW:
(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif)

Memphis is pretty flat, I'm guessing it doesn't drain well.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 08:54:39 AM
WOW:

Memphis is pretty flat, I'm guessing it doesn't drain well.

WOW is right!  Not to mention if they get the progged rainfall (7.8in) it will not only affect the Memphis area, but also areas downstream along the MS River, who are also going to have a good bit of rain fall as well. 

This could get really bad, really fast, if the numbers verify.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on April 30, 2010, 09:15:41 AM
WOW is right!  Not to mention if they get the progged rainfall (7.8in) it will not only affect the Memphis area, but also areas downstream along the MS River, who are also going to have a good bit of rain fall as well. 

Maybe, that will help flush out the oil slick coming in from the Gulf.  ::lookaround::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 10:05:43 AM
Maybe, that will help flush out the oil slick coming in from the Gulf.  ::lookaround::
::rofl::  I like the positive attitude!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on April 30, 2010, 10:24:53 AM
Good night nurse! Anyone up for a weekend swim? Or a little bass fishing in the backyard?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 30, 2010, 10:41:29 AM
The NAM is really screwing east TN. It has 3+ inches up to Nashville, then a rapid dropoff to near nothing by the time you get to Knoxville. GFS also has a relative screw zone in East TN, though it isn't as drastic. Closer to 2 inches. Either way, this part of the state will still be well below normal after this storm.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: JHart on April 30, 2010, 11:15:53 AM
I believe the HPC precipitation maps are out to lunch for Middle Tennessee.    To my eye, models have been consistently dpeicting this as a major event for extreme west Tennessee, with little if anything east of I-65 until Sunday, when a weakening band of rain moves through.  Aside from the threat of some isolated strong storms on Saturday, I think this will be a non-event east of I-65.

I'm sure Nature has her own ideas, though.  ::drowning::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 01:05:32 PM
HOLY  ::twister:: BATMAN!

(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010043009/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f039.gif)

(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010043009/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f045.gif)


The thing that's scary about those, as they are both at night.  The first one is at 7pm Saturday, and the Second would be at 1am Sunday.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 30, 2010, 01:41:43 PM
Guys, this is only out to 36 hours:
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p36_045l.gif)

And yes, it screws east TN, actually has .01 over my house! But that is going to be some serious flooding in both Nashville and Memphis. Get out your wading boots!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 30, 2010, 02:00:52 PM
Middle tennessee needs to keep a eye out once again...

(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010043009/SREF_LPL__f045.gif)

(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010043009/SREF_prob_ESHR_40kt__f045.gif)

(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010043009/SREF_prob_SSB_1kmHel_150__f045.gif)

(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010043009/SREF_prob_SSB_3kmHel_300__f045.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on April 30, 2010, 02:01:32 PM
12z NAM precip output is just plain ridiculous for KMEM, pushing 7 inches. I dont think I've seen it display that much precip ever. The profile looks as if the leftovers from a tropical system, are coming through. Of course 12z GFS slowed things down a bit and lowered precip totals:

http://66.70.209.226/weather/snow/kmem.txt

Severe potential looks mightly likely as well. This weekend will be interesting for sure. Defintely a sign that Memphis in May-Musicfest is upon us.


Quote
author=toastido link=topic=2504.msg82999#msg82999 date=1272650732]
HOLY  ::twister:: BATMAN!

(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010043009/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f039.gif)

(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010043009/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f045.gif)
Quote








Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 30, 2010, 02:09:30 PM
With the presence of better CAPE I think this event will produce storms as strong or stronger than the last system. As storms approach the I-65 line they could be very strong. Jackson Tn seems to be a likely place to see severe weather Saturday.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on April 30, 2010, 02:18:36 PM
With the presence of better CAPE I think this event will produce storms as strong or stronger than the last system. As storms approach the I-65 line they could be very strong. Jackson Tn seems to be a likely place to see severe weather Saturday.
I think you can add most of the state of Arkansas and western MS for Saturday as well. I am starting to think Sunday may be just as active.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on April 30, 2010, 02:40:35 PM
Wow 70 degree DP's pushing through central AR towards West TN as we speak.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on April 30, 2010, 03:13:07 PM
12z NAM precip output is just plain ridiculous for KMEM, pushing 7 inches. I dont think I've seen it display that much precip ever. The profile looks as if the leftovers from a tropical system, are coming through. Of course 12z GFS slowed things down a bit and lowered precip totals:

http://66.70.209.226/weather/snow/kmem.txt

Severe potential looks mightly likely as well. This weekend will be interesting for sure. Defintely a sign that Memphis in May-Musicfest is upon us.

Jeez, it looks it's going to be like night of the twisters tomorrow night!  With those high SIGTORS just sitting over us, we might have training storms producing tornadoes!  ::twister::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: StormNine on April 30, 2010, 03:15:57 PM
TorCon of 4 out of 10 for West KY/TN tomm.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on April 30, 2010, 03:50:19 PM
Guys, this is only out to 36 hours:
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p36_045l.gif)

And yes, it screws east TN, actually has .01 over my house! But that is going to be some serious flooding in both Nashville and Memphis. Get out your wading boots!

PLEASE...stop saying that everytime a model runs.  It is getting tiring.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on April 30, 2010, 03:53:03 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image2.gif)

Quote
Flash Flood Watch

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...

.A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE MIDSTATE THIS WEEKEND. WE EXPECT
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TNZ005>010-022>031-056>064-075-077-093>095-010430-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FF.A.0001.100501T1200Z-100503T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-BENTON-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-
CANNON-DE KALB-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
326 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
 INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...BEDFORD...BENTON...CANNON...
 CHEATHAM...CLAY...COFFEE...DAVIDSON...DE KALB...DICKSON...
 GILES...HICKMAN...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...JACK SON...LAWRENCE...
 LEWIS...MACON...MARSHALL...MAURY...MONTGOMER Y...PERRY...
 ROBERTSON...RUTHERFORD...SMITH...STEWART...S UMNER...
 TROUSDALE...WAYNE...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE MIDSTATE ON SATURDAY AND
  SUNDAY AND LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

JLM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
343 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...

.A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING.

THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND SWING BACK NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH
ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG BACK
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT THE AREA
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS MEANDERING
FRONT.

THE BEST TIMING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

MSZ002>006-008-009-011>017-020>024-TNZ003-004-020-021-050>055-
089>092-010900-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.A.0003.100501T1200Z-100503T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TATE-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-
YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-WEAKLEY-HENRY-GIBSON-CARROLL-
HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORINTH...IUKA...BOONEVILLE...
BATESVILLE...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...TUPELO...AMORY...ABERDEEN...
MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...HUMBOLDT...MILAN. ..HUNTINGDON...
JACKSON...LEXINGTON...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR.. .SAVANNAH
343 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ALCORN...BENTON...
  CALHOUN...CHICKASAW...ITAWAMBA...LAFAYETTE.. .LEE...MARSHALL...
  MONROE...PANOLA...PONTOTOC...PRENTISS...QUIT MAN...
  TALLAHATCHIE...TATE...TIPPAH...TISHOMINGO... UNION AND YALOBUSHA.
  IN WEST TENNESSEE...CARROLL...CHESTER...CROCKETT...
  DECATUR...FAYETTE...GIBSON...HARDEMAN...HARD IN...HAYWOOD...
  HENDERSON...HENRY...MADISON...MCNAIRY AND WEAKLEY.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
  PRIMARILY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
  SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
  WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY RESULT IN FLASH
  FLOODING...WITH LOWLAND AND RIVER FLOODING LIKELY TO CONTINUE
  THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BORGHOFF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

... HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

.DEEP GULF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SPREAD GRADUALLY EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THIS PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN...ON TOP OF WHAT OCCURS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS...
WILL ELEVATE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...
A TOTAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
HARTSELLE...TO HUNTSVILLE...TO WINCHESTER WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE.

ALZ008>010-016-011100-
/O.NEW.KHUN.FF.A.0003.100501T1800Z-100503T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...
FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN
310 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
 NORTHEAST ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH
 CENTRAL ALABAMA...CULLMAN. IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...DEKALB...
 JACKSON AND MARSHALL.

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
  A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY
  MORNING WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

KNS/MEA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

... HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

.DEEP GULF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SPREAD GRADUALLY EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THIS PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN...ON TOP OF WHAT OCCURS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS...
WILL ELEVATE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...
A TOTAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
HARTSELLE...TO HUNTSVILLE...TO WINCHESTER WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE.

ALZ001>007-TNZ076-096-097-011100-
/O.NEW.KHUN.FF.A.0003.100501T1200Z-100503T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE ...DECATUR...
LYNCHBURG...FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
310 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
 TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...
 COLBERT...FRANKLIN AL...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...
 MADISON AND MORGAN. IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...FRANKLIN
 TN...LINCOLN AND MOORE.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING

* SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
  A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY
  MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
405 PM EDT FRI APR 30 2010

CORRECTED FOR A WRONG EXPIRATION TIME ON INITIAL PRODUCT.

...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER
MORE POTENT FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE
FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-010845-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0001.100501T1200Z-100503T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG... BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...L A GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOW N...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VE RSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...S PRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...H ODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND... MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CA MPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMO NTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
405 PM EDT FRI APR 30 2010 /305 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

* A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
  STALL OUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
  MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THIS FIRST EPISODE...RAINFALL
  AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
  WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. LIGHTER RAINS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
  NIGHT. A SECOND AND MORE POTENT EPISODE OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED
  FOR SUNDAY WHEN MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. BY SUNDAY
  NIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
  OVER THE WATCH AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN BEING WEST
  OF INTERSTATE 65. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE
  EXPECTED IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 BY EARLY MONDAY...WITH
  2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. SOME LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
  LOCATIONS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES.

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND COULD
  CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME
  AREAS LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT FOR THE REGION.
  WITH THE EXTREME LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALLY HIGH
  RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 6 INCHES IN PLACES...FLASH FLOODING IS
  LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. STAY ABREAST OF THE
SITUATION BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

&&

$$

DK/AML
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
220 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...

.A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS
STATES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH...AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL ACT IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER IMPULSES AND
TRIGGER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING. THE
ZONE OF GREATEST CONCERN IS WESTERN KENTUCKY...THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

ILZ087-090-091-094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-010330-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FF.A.0001.100501T1200Z-100503T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GALLATIN-POPE-HARDIN-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-
SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHAWNEETOWN...GOLCONDA...
ELIZABETHTOWN...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPO RT...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...M AYFIELD...SMITHLAND...
BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ ...PRINCETON...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINS VILLE...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON
220 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND A SMALL PART OF
  SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
  TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
  LATE ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION. WHILE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
  COULD OCCUR...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
  AFTER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME
  TO TIME SATURDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
  INTENSITY EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE TIME
  FRAME OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY.
  SOME MODELS ARE PROJECTING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 INCHES OR MORE MAY
  FALL ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY IN PERSISTENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES IN SMALL
  CREEKS...RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LAND AND POOR
  DRAINAGE AREAS WILL LIKELY FLOOD. WE ALSO EXPECT MANY AREAS TO
  EXPERIENCE FLOODED ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT TYPICALLY
  FLOOD. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OF CONSIDERABLE CONCERN AS
  WELL...IN ENHANCED AND PERSISTENT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on April 30, 2010, 03:55:20 PM
Quote
Public Severe Weather Outlook
Print Version 
   ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
   WOUS40 KWNS 301701
   IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-010200-
   
   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA IS FORECASTING
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE MID
   TO UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          FAR EASTERN IOWA
          ILLINOIS
          EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI
   
   ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
   SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OZARKS INTO THE
   EASTERN PART OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
   
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   MODERATE RISK AREA IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE
   MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LIFT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE MODERATE
   RISK AREA. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   THREAT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
   WILL EXIST FROM FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTH
   SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI. TORNADOES AND
   LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES MAY
   OCCUR IN EASTERN MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
   
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/30/2010
   
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on April 30, 2010, 03:58:34 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day2otlk_20100430_1730_prt.gif)

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day2probotlk_20100430_1730_any_prt.gif)

Quote
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT FROM PARTS OF
   EAST TEXAS AND THE LWR MS VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE LEE OF THE
   LWR GREAT LAKES AND NRN APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN AMPLIFIED REGIME TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS
   THE U.S. WITHIN THE STRONGER BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES MAY BEGIN TO
   DAMPEN OUT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER... MID/UPPER
   RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  WHILE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG ON ITS
   WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY...FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
   ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.  THIS MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BY SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF
   REMNANT LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES.
   
   ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
   WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST...A BROAD AND MODERATELY STRONG
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OFF THE GULF OF
   MEXICO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
   LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THIS SHOULD BE
   MAINTAINED...THOUGH NORTHWARD ADVECTION MAY BE SLOWED SATURDAY BY
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND
   TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
   IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST FASHION FROM THE
   OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS.
   THE FRONT PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...WITH THE SOUTHERN END
   PERHAPS RETREATING NORTHWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   
   GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THE EVOLVING PATTERN
   CERTAINLY FAVORS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS.
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY
   AT LEAST EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE PROMINENT...WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD
   SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION.
   
   ...OH VLY INTO NRN APPALACHIANS AND LEE OF LWR GREAT LAKES...
   MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   COULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND
   TENNESSEE.  SUFFICIENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
   ACTIVITY TO SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE
   OF 40 TO 50 KT DEEP LAYER MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE ENVIRONMENT
   APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...OR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEASTWARD
   THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE
   RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH FAST MOVING STORMS.
   
   ...EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   INHIBITION SOUTH OF STALLING BOUNDARIES IS BECOMING MORE OF A
   CONCERN.  BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...INCLUDING A VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70S DEW POINTS...IN THE PRESENCE OF CONTINUING
   STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.  MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT EARLY DAY
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS COULD INITIATE IN DISCRETE
   FASHION SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
   HOWEVER...STORM MOTIONS WILL TEND TO BE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
   POTENTIALLY RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.  SO...TORNADIC POTENTIAL
   ACROSS EAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI INTO ARKANSAS IS STILL
   UNCLEAR...THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES MAY OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE
   FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES.  LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE TENDENCY FOR STORM CONSOLIDATION ALONG/NORTH
   OF STALLED FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED...WITH AT LEAST
   A CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on April 30, 2010, 04:08:45 PM
Notice that the latest Day 1 outlook has a moderate risk for much of Arkansas...

(http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20100430_2000_prt.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 04:14:04 PM
Notice that the latest Day 1 outlook has a moderate risk for much of Arkansas...

Yep, and the watch that went up in that area is borderline PDS...  not QUITE PDS, but borderline.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: bigalpha on April 30, 2010, 04:18:25 PM
Bummer, we just put grass seed and dirt down on last Sunday.  Looks like it's going to wash all away with our 5" of rain.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on April 30, 2010, 04:20:44 PM
Bummer, we just put grass seed and dirt down on last Sunday.  Looks like it's going to wash all away with our 5" of rain.

Yeah, I'm hoping the seeds in our garden don't decide to  ::drowning:: ::drowning:: ::drowning::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2010, 04:34:42 PM
kmem afd:
Interesting wording...

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON COMPLEX HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT THIS WEEKEND...THEN ON A BIG WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT 1930Z...RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN RESPONSE TO DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AWAY
FROM THE MAIN FRONT. MEANWHILE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST FORCING TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR THIS
FRONT...WHICH BEGINS TO STALL LATE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE BEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER
TONIGHT. PUSHED BACK THE START OF THE FFA EAST OF HERE TO 12Z
SATURDAY AND LEFT IT AS IS WEST.


AS THE MAIN BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST...IT WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
TO MAINTAIN THEIR SEVERITY AT LEAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN
FACT...AS I`M WRITING THIS A MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS WILL END AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TEND TO
BE WORKED OVER. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD
DAWN.


SATURDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS
WESTERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTH SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MODELS SHOW A LULL OF
PRECIP COVERAGE AROUND 18Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY
2000 J/KG OF CAPE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON DESPITE
LOW CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WINDS WILL BE BACKED A BIT NEAR THE SURFACE. VERY LOW LCLS
WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE...AND WITH MORE 0-1 KM CAPE THAN LAST
WEEKEND. AS THE LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ADDED SEVERE BACK
TO THE GRIDS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME LINEARLY
FORCED ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE THE BEST TIME FOR
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND PW/S AROUND 2
INCHES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TROPICAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.


IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE SUNDAY...MORE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS A BIT MORE CONDITIONAL...
SO WILL NOT INCLUDE SEVERE IN THE GRIDS ATTM.

MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS THE SLOWEST AND IT NOW DOESN/T LEAVE THE
TN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 12Z MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY
QUICKER. OVERALL...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE NAM VERIFY
GIVEN THE PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW I WON/T MAKE
TOO MANY DRASTIC CHANGES. THE 12Z NAM WOULD SPELL 7 TO 9 INCHES
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE.

WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES OVER THE EAST AND 3 TO 5 INCHES WEST. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT GAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NOW LOOKS NON-EXISTENT AND THE
SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY CAPE. THUS...REMOVED
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THICKNESSES AND H5 HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND/OR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BUILDING 85 TO 90 DEGREE TEMPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING UPON IF THE WET GROUND CAN ZAP SOME OF THE
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION FROM BEING CONVERTED TO HEAT...WE COULD
SEE SOME LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS 925 MB TEMPS RISE INTO
THE +23C TO +24C RANGE.

BORGHOFF

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR KJBR...KMEM AND KMKL
BTWN 18-20Z WITH MVFR CIGS.  EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFT
06Z AT THE TAF SITES MENTIONED ABOVE WITH NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA.

AT KTUP...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AFT 01/04Z AND ISOLD CONVECTION AT 08Z.

OKULSKI
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 04:37:28 PM
That is a lot of water...::drowning:: ::wow::

And then the severe threat too, I'm going to chase tomorrow as I have other plans on Sunday. Those numbers are impressive and actually better for us this go around than last weekend.

Maybe a MDT day west of us and possibly including some of middle TN later on?

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 30, 2010, 04:43:28 PM
PLEASE...stop saying that everytime a model runs.  It is getting tiring.

Sorry. Drought really irritates me. I can't stand dry pollen-filled springs. I really want to see some significant rains out of this, but its looking less likely as each model runs.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 04:51:00 PM
Sorry. Drought really irritates me. I can't stand dry pollen-filled springs. I really want to see some significant rains out of this, but its looking less likely as each model runs.

I can tell you this, the high amounts of rain we have gotten has not helped much at all with the pollen. We have so much that right after it rains...more piles up. My nose is running and is making my throat sore, not what I need for tomorrow's spotting/chasing.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on April 30, 2010, 05:50:52 PM
Chaldea,
it's knoked the pollen down some, but it's still heavy. I get the daily pollen count on Twitter. It was below 50 today. It was over 800 2 weeks ago.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 05:58:05 PM
this may be turning into more of a severe threat that we thought. those parameteres are looking preety impressive.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on April 30, 2010, 06:18:17 PM
My kids are going to be home alone between 6p and 12 midnight tomorrow. Under normal circumstances this is fine but what is it looking like during that time? 
I just want to prepare my oldest son on what to expect. My younger ones would be too scared it I told them....

Thanks guys - Really wishing my husband and I did not have to work tomorrow night...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on April 30, 2010, 06:21:36 PM
Chaldea is supposed to say Charles.


The iPhone is intuitive, but the predictive text magnifies typing errors. Should have proof read
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 06:24:00 PM
a tornado on the ground, in northern arkansas. mo border. according to the twc.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 06:37:26 PM
a tornado on the ground, in northern arkansas. mo border. according to the twc.

Wow... I actually turned the TV to TWC..  I haven't done that in ages... I like the new graphics :P
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 06:45:35 PM
new tornado watch coming out. got expanded to cover centrel arkie until 2 am
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 06:55:12 PM
a tornado on the ground, in northern arkansas. mo border. according to the twc.

Wouldn't doubt it!  That couplet is HUGE..

Not to mention, I even have a couplet on the BASE velocity...  it's definitely still on the ground...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on April 30, 2010, 07:03:06 PM
Wouldn't doubt it!  That couplet is HUGE..

Not to mention, I even have a couplet on the BASE velocity...  it's definitely still on the ground...


It looks like it may be rain wrapped now. Hope it stays in unpopulated areas
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 07:03:34 PM
yeah noticed that, most definetly a signficant tornado going on. it will be intersting to see if these storms can hold together as they move east. havent had any rain at all. dewpoints keep rocketing also.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 07:07:28 PM
early indications, significant damage being reported now by twc on that large cell
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 07:08:30 PM
early indications, significant damage being reported now by twc on that large cell

Yep.  Early reports are that it's at least a mile wide, and causing major destruction.

SPC has already verified their hatched TOR area today..  I just hope we don't add to the killer tornado tally this year... ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 07:16:37 PM
cell  northwest of little rock looks impressive too
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 07:23:03 PM
Chaldea is supposed to say Charles.


The iPhone is intuitive, but the predictive text magnifies typing errors. Should have proof read

Chaldea...sounds foreign. lol ;)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: StormNine on April 30, 2010, 07:25:18 PM
Tornado reported 9 Miles Southwest of Clinton Arkansas.  
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 07:25:22 PM
cell  northwest of little rock looks impressive too

Yep, just noticed it since I got in...anyone know how big Clinton, AR is? They are in the path of this supercell.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 07:28:37 PM
i think, dont quote me on it ,clinton population is between 15 to 18 thousand or so.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 07:36:54 PM
Guys...what up with the storms firing in MS? Was that forecasted? They seem to be pretty strong and even one cell has small rotation developing?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 07:46:02 PM
Guys...what up with the storms firing in MS? Was that forecasted? They seem to be pretty strong and even one cell has small rotation developing?

I believe these storms were expected.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 07:50:30 PM
I believe these storms were expected.

Ok, just checking...they popped up out of nowhere and caught me off guard. Thanks toast!

Training supercells in AR, Clinton is still under the gun as the first one missed just 5 miles NW of the town...but another one is on its heals.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 07:54:10 PM
Ok, just checking...they popped up out of nowhere and caught me off guard. Thanks toast!

Training supercells in AR, Clinton is still under the gun as the first one missed just 5 miles NW of the town...but another one is on its heals.

No  problemo.   Looks like a very dangerous night taking shape for the Mid-South..
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2010, 08:04:37 PM
Nocturnal tornado outbreak....not good.  Training supercells...not good.  Pray for those across AR and MS tonight...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:05:30 PM
i agree with you 100 percent toastido.looks like we can get some discrete cells in front of the frontal boudary , which is still back to our west.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 30, 2010, 08:07:15 PM
Central Arkansas upgraded to high risk. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:08:44 PM
just fixing to post that. moderate shifts some east too
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on April 30, 2010, 08:10:50 PM
Nocturnal tornado outbreak....not good.  Training supercells...not good.  Pray for those across AR and MS tonight...
Mississippi doesnt need any more of that,neither does arkansas pray for them.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 08:13:13 PM
Talk about huge dynamics. 3000 CAPE, -7 LI's, and Helicity values upwards of 400...very hostile atmosphere in central AR. Long night for those folks.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:14:37 PM
none of us needs it. whats scary is, parameter actually increase as the night goes on. the severe risk looks like it will hold up
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 08:15:07 PM
Central Arkansas upgraded to high risk. 

Makes me wonder if they will revise the watch to make it PDS..  it was already borderline...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on April 30, 2010, 08:16:32 PM
any chance east tn gets in on some action? twc has 30% thunderstorms sunday....noaa has 80%.... ::pondering:: ::pondering:: ::pondering::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:17:46 PM
wouldnt surpirse me one bit, the next watch comes out will be pds
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2010, 08:18:02 PM
What is LZK doing cancelling the TOR warning on the cell HEADING STRAIGHT FOR Little Rock???  Insane couplet on BV scans....pure lunacy.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 08:19:12 PM
What is LZk doing cancelling the TOR warning on the cell HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THE CITY???  Insane couplet on BV scans....pure lunacy.

It's LZK...can't come up with many compliments for them to be honest.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2010, 08:19:23 PM
Makes me wonder if they will revise the watch to make it PDS..  it was already borderline...

Probably needs to happen.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on April 30, 2010, 08:23:28 PM
Does this mean that we are going to have long track tornadoes or not.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:24:35 PM
i say next watch comes out will be pds.  activity south of little rock firing rapidly moving north east
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:25:26 PM
conditions are favorable for a long tracker or two adam
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 08:26:17 PM
Does this mean that we are going to have long track tornadoes or not.

No, our atmosphere will not be as "pumped up" as theirs is tonight...but severe storms looks like a strong bet, any storm can be life changing.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on April 30, 2010, 08:27:31 PM
O ok then so more like damaging winds?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on April 30, 2010, 08:29:28 PM
I think we gotta give Kevin some kudos. He's gone contrarian on the last two systems, and has nailed it. Last week he said there would be too much junk convection to warrant a high risk. This week he's been very impressed with the threat for arkansas and... we see what's happening.

That kinda forecasting isn't luck.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:30:02 PM
i say parts of west tn  can get on some of the tornadic stuff. the jset actually increases over our area overnight
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:31:40 PM
i agree, and it looks like the junk is going to stay away for a while. this is looking like a fairly strong severe weather event up front, than a heavy rain event to follow
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 08:31:49 PM
O ok then so more like damaging winds?

For us, yes. Now down south tomorrow into MS and LA (even west TN) they will have the higher tornadic risk. Can one or two form here? Absolutely, but the higher chances are down south for that chance to occur.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on April 30, 2010, 08:33:19 PM
Well i live close to west tennessee so im keeping m guard up.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 08:37:31 PM
Well i live close to west tennessee so im keeping m guard up.

As should all of middle TN. I know you know this and many others do too, but even if a storm isn't tornadic...it is still dangerous. Even a non-severe thunderstorm is dangerous and can cause damage and death.

Just be smart and you will be safe, hopefully that is what people in Central AR are doing tonight.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:43:27 PM
twc is at memphis now. with mike siedel reporting.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:44:30 PM
tornado on the ground south of little rock
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 08:45:57 PM
Tornado Warning up for Central MS...oh boy. :-\
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:47:54 PM
not a good sign. those storms in miss, will move to the nor northeast. should be just a matter of time for a new watch is out. and it could be pds
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 08:50:27 PM
not a good sign. those storms in miss, will move to the nor northeast. should be just a matter of time for a new watch is out. and it could be pds

But, that area of MS is much more unstable than we are. Their DP- 70, ours 53.

So that will help and the other parameters are higher for them too...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on April 30, 2010, 08:50:51 PM
That storm might be a long tracker, its the only big storm around that area.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:51:18 PM
i am setting at 67 now dew point but i am in west tn
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on April 30, 2010, 08:51:40 PM
Im sitting at 65 dewpoint right now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 08:53:26 PM
Oh wow...guess I should have looked at the observations first, opps.

My bad...::lookaround::

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 08:54:10 PM
word is. a new watch is coming out. interesting were. should cover eastern arkie. maybe extreme west tn.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jilly on April 30, 2010, 08:55:25 PM
http://www.justin.tv/katvchannel7
KATV Little Rock live stream
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2010, 08:55:57 PM
Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MSC003-141-TNC071-109-010230-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0094.100501T0151Z-100501T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
851 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 852 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PINEFLAT...
  OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PICKWICK LANDING STATE PARK...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAVANNAH...
  PICKWICK LANDING STATE PARK AND JCOLEMAN STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8800 3501 8818 3500 8819 3496 8815
      3493 8814 3483 8834 3501 8848 3536 8836
      3536 8801 3531 8801 3530 8798 3502 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 231DEG 25KT 3496 8832

$$
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on April 30, 2010, 08:57:39 PM
twc is at memphis now. with mike siedel reporting.

He's passing through, right?  The main threat is west of here.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 09:00:49 PM
he was on the river from live a min ago. but said the action was so intesnse back to the west. they r moving towards littlerock. but said memphis needs to be on the outlook for later
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 30, 2010, 09:02:30 PM
What are the chances of these storms form into a line and becoming not so discreet as they approach the Mississippi River?

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: StormNine on April 30, 2010, 09:03:29 PM
Nothing like a romantic movie during a nocturnal outbreak.  

Anyway there is potential for severe in far West TN, and Far West KY.  How the cells hold up I don't know, but with the Noctural Jet kicking in for areas close to the MS river it will be a long night.  Further Inland strong to isolated severe should be the main calling.

Keep your NOAA in hand esp. if you are close to MO, or ARK state line.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 09:03:54 PM
What are the chances of these storms form into a line and becoming not so discreet as they approach the Mississippi River?



Unless the front starts moving again, not very good.  This is a SLOW moving frontal boundary.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 09:05:07 PM
yeas. i think as the front slows down. good chance for them to stay dicrete out ahead
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: angrypug on April 30, 2010, 09:06:54 PM
nasty looking storm
(http://www.cookevillecomputers.com/radar/ark.jpg)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 09:07:51 PM
Hot off the presses..

(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0433.gif)
Quote
190
ACUS11 KWNS 010206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010205
ALZ000-MSZ000-010300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0905 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN MS...WCNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010205Z - 010300Z

TSTMS HAVE DEEPENED ALONG NRN EDGE OF RETURNING LLVL GULF/CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE ACROSS NRN/ERN MS THIS EVENING.  EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY ALONG ERN EDGE OF THE SLY LLJ AXIS AND
GRADUALLY LIFT NE TOWARD NWRN/WCNTRL AL FOR SVRL HOURS.  GWX VWP
SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL 0-1KM SRH AND SUPERCELLS WILL POSE AT LEAST AN
ISOLD TORNADO RISK.  REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
TORNADO WATCH.

..RACY.. 05/01/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: VandyMachine on April 30, 2010, 09:13:00 PM
nasty looking storm
(http://www.cookevillecomputers.com/radar/ark.jpg)

Now that's a couplet! I feel for whomever is under that... ::candle::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 09:14:54 PM
BOOM.
PDS TORNADO WATCH #118

(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0118_radar.gif)
Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 118
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   910 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
          THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
          EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
          EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 910 PM
   UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
  
  ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
 
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF WALNUT
   RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
  
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
   WATCH NUMBER 116. WATCH NUMBER 116 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
   910 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 117...
  
   DISCUSSION...DANGEROUS TORNADO SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   OVERNIGHT AS MULTIPLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TRACK THROUGH A
   MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
   GIVEN THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN A WARM SECTOR
   CONFLUENCE BAND RUNNING THROUGH THE LITTLE ROCK AREA...THE TORNADO
   THREAT WILL SOON EXTEND EAST INTO MOST OF ERN AR.  A FEW
   LONG-TRACK...STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.
  
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
  
  
   ...THOMPSON

Quote
TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

WT 0118 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES         :  70%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU8.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2010, 09:15:59 PM
yeah she is creeping ever so more to the east.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 09:18:29 PM
From CNN:

Quote
At least 3 people dead in severe storms in Arkansas, officials say http://on.cnn.com/bGDhQL
>:( >:( >:( >:( >:(
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on April 30, 2010, 09:21:09 PM
I can hear constant thunder here now to my southwest. That cell coming this way out of Hardin co may be interesting.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on April 30, 2010, 09:23:10 PM
First I have to apologize for the lack of updates Today...I have several personal issues going on right now...but needless to say briefly a very dangerous situation is unfolding across the state of AR. At this time...this could affect portions of Eastern AR...but I do NOT think it will get much East of the MS River through at least late late tonight if not tomorrow. Storms will probably slowly but surely organize into more linear clusters (A few very early signs of this now) and hopefully that will bring an end to any higher-end tornado threat by Midnight and after.

Another significant or major severe weather outbreak including tornadoes is likely tomorrow...especially across AR/MS...but this may spread into at least SW TN AS well...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 09:23:54 PM
That cell that got TOR warned in MS seems to have lost it's rotation over the last 3 or 4 scans... I bet they either cancel the warning or let it expire.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2010, 09:25:39 PM
ATTENTION
WE ARE GOING TO IMPLEMENT SWM EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.  PLEASE ADHERE TO THE POSTED RULES AND POLICIES CONCERNING SWM.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 09:30:58 PM
ATTENTION
WE ARE GOING TO IMPLEMENT SWM EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.  PLEASE ADHERE TO THE POSTED RULES AND POLICIES CONCERNING SWM.

They can be found here (http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2376.msg67922.html#msg67922)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 30, 2010, 09:32:31 PM
Isn't it unusual to have such a potent tornadic event at night so late in the year?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 09:40:16 PM
From HUN:

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
936 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.UPDATE...FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A POWERFUL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS
PROPELLING A LINE OF SEVERE TO TORNADIC STORMS ACROSS AR/MO. IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH POSITION AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TX...A STRONG LLJ HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN MS/LA STRETCHING ALL THE WAY INTO IA. THIS IS ENABLING
A STRONG...WARM...MOIST FETCH TO INCREASE INSTABILITY SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS MS/W TN AND W AL. TEMPS OVER N AL ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. IN COMPARISON DEWPOINTS JUST TO THE SW
OVER E MS ARE IN THE 70S.

LOOKING AT AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS AND VWPS (KGWX/KHTX)...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO FORM OR
PROGRESS OVER CENTRAL/N MS MAY CLIP NW AL TONIGHT AND HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY THAT AREA FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

Looks like they expect things to kinda stay west tonight, which is what I was thinking as well.  This could still affect Southern Middle TN, and obviously, Western TN.  Please remain weather aware overnight, and make sure your NOAA radios are on and in alert mode.  Also make sure they have fresh batteries in case you lose power.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: pandadug on April 30, 2010, 09:45:14 PM
I just noticed some activity sneaking up into south middle TN. Any cause for concern?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on April 30, 2010, 09:49:02 PM
I just noticed some activity sneaking up into south middle TN. Any cause for concern?
Its riding up through here now. Alot of heavy rain, thunder, and lightining but nothing severe by any stretch, not yet anyway.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ChrisPC on April 30, 2010, 09:53:40 PM
Isn't it unusual to have such a potent tornadic event at night so late in the year?

Not in the Southeast. From what I've read, we have more nighttime tornadoes than most areas, and more fatalities at night.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on April 30, 2010, 10:14:50 PM
Not in the Southeast. From what I've read, we have more nighttime tornadoes than most areas, and more fatalities at night.

That much is certainly evident tonight. I thought I had read somewhere that November and February were the two worst months for nocturnal outbreaks, and that instability became based more on daytime heating at this point in the year, but that must not always be the case.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: pandadug on April 30, 2010, 10:26:39 PM
I don't know much about reading all those graphs and charts, but I sure don't like to see blobs of red all by themselves moving toward me! :)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on April 30, 2010, 10:29:33 PM
Eric,i feel sorry for those people back around little rock.They have been socked pretty good.With the stalling of the front,they could have tornado after tornado with the kind of dynamics back that way.What you think about a moderate or high risk further east for tommorrow?The SPC has plenty of room to upgrade our slight risk if conditions are favorable i suppose
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on April 30, 2010, 10:38:55 PM
I didnt see this posted. If it was, my apologies...
3200 j/kg HOLYCRAP!

Quote
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010
   
   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-MS
   VLY/MID-SOUTH TO THE ARKLATEX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO E TX...
   
   ...MID MS VLY/MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX...
   ...THREAT FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG TORNADOES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
   PARTS OF SERN MO...SWRN IL...AR AND EXTREME NERN TX THIS EVE AND
   WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH/MID-MS RVR
   VLY...
   
   STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK SIG TORNADOES WILL BE IN A
   CORRIDOR ACROSS CNTRL AR WHERE AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IS WARRANTED.
   
   00Z LZK HODOGRAPH/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE EXHIBITED A SIGNIFICANT
   TORNADO/SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH OF 235
   M2/S2...MLCAPES AROUND 3200 J/KG...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES 7+ DEG C PER KM
   AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE PRE-FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER THE ARKLATEX AND WITHIN THE FREE WARM SECTOR
   ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR AND MOVE ENE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH/MDT RISK
   AREAS.  IN ADDITION TO THE ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND DMGG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ccountz on April 30, 2010, 10:49:10 PM
000
WUUS54 KOHX 010347
SVROHX
TNC081-101-010415-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0044.100501T0347Z-100501T0415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1047 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1045 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  HOHENWALD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  CENTERVILLE

LAT...LON 3556 8766 3557 8765 3559 8764 3562 8765
      3595 8741 3583 8722 3580 8722 3545 8755
      3554 8769 3556 8768
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 217DEG 39KT 3558 8757

$$

ROSE
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on April 30, 2010, 10:54:08 PM
Curt,fred gossage posted the cape from the 0znam for saturday afternoon for the memphis area,and we are in the 3500 j/kg range,and even higher numbers sw of that!Close to 4200 there. ::wow::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on April 30, 2010, 10:56:41 PM
Curt,fred gossage posted the cape from the 0znam for saturday afternoon for the memphis area,and we are in the 3500 j/kg range,and even higher numbers sw of that!Close to 4200 there. ::wow::

We will need to see what happens tonight. Tomorrow has potential to be dangerous as energy rides along the front.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on April 30, 2010, 11:03:25 PM
I suppose fred got that info from twister data.com. I think if the front wasnt stalling out,little rock wouldnt have the issues they are dealing with currently.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on April 30, 2010, 11:06:52 PM
Man... this is rough.

(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0435.gif)
Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN TX/EXTREME SERN OK/CENTRAL-ERN AR/MO
   BOOTHEEL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 118...
   
   VALID 010343Z - 010445Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 118 CONTINUES.
   
   DANGEROUS TORNADO SITUATION CONTINUES ACROSS SWRN-SRN INTO CENTRAL
   AND ERN AR...WITH LONG-TRACK...STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   AND REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
   HOURS.

   
   IN ADDITION TO TORNADIC SUPERCELLS LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
   SWRN AND NERN AR...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SEVERAL /4-5/ DISCRETE
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TRACKING NEWD FROM DALLAS COUNTY AR TO JACKSON
   COUNTY AR.  THESE LATTER STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE ZONE.  ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PDS TORNADO WATCH 118 REMAINS
   VERY CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW
   LEVEL /SFC-1 KM 30-40 KT/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /40-60 KT/...AND
   LOW LCLS /500-800 M/.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/01/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...F WD...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on April 30, 2010, 11:09:53 PM
Curt,the gfs shows around 2500 j/kg for us,so not as strong as the nam so far
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: VandyMachine on April 30, 2010, 11:13:13 PM
SWM - *You MAY NOT post short posts containing only statements of exclamation or irritation or posts with only smileys if they contribute nothing to the discussion.  These will be deleted.*

Oops! Got carried away, apologies.

 As for the meat of my deleted post, does anybody know what the record cape value is? From a post above, 4200 jkg sounds like a lot. Isn't it true that high cape value storms have copious lightning? I always thought them to be that way. Finally, I love storms, but what is going on in Arkansas is chilling.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on April 30, 2010, 11:19:15 PM
I am having some pop-up storms here.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2010, 11:21:08 PM
SWM - *You MAY NOT post short posts containing only statements of exclamation or irritation or posts with only smileys if they contribute nothing to the discussion.  These will be deleted.*

Oops! Got carried away, apologies.

 As for the meat of my deleted post, does anybody know what the record cape value is? From a post above, 4200 jkg sounds like a lot. Isn't it true that high cape value storms have copious lightning? I always thought them to be that way. Finally, I love storms, but what is going on in Arkansas is chilling.



That would make sense....but am unsure.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 30, 2010, 11:25:59 PM
Looks like I will get the left overs from the Cell moving out of Hickman County. They have been weakening as they approach the area.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: lilapsophobic on April 30, 2010, 11:48:32 PM
You guys really think this is going to call it off at the Mississippi River?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ccountz on April 30, 2010, 11:50:57 PM
You guys really think this is going to call it off at the Mississippi River?

No. In fact, the latest Mesoscale discussion is considering the possibility of extending the tornado watch to the area of W.Tn, N. MS, W. KY, and W. IN.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on April 30, 2010, 11:52:50 PM
You guys really think this is going to call it off at the Mississippi River?

SPC has a new meso discussion atm and are considering a new tornado watch to the east of the current watch that ends along the river.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 30, 2010, 11:53:07 PM
The TN River may be a good cutoff point.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2010, 11:54:16 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0436.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SRN IL/WRN-SWRN IND/SERN MO/WRN KY/WRN
   TN/NRN MS/CENTRAL AND ERN AR
  
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 117...118...
  
   VALID 010441Z - 010545Z
  
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 117...118...CONTINUES.
  
   NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 05-06Z FROM FAR NRN MS THROUGH WRN TN...WRN
   KY TO PARTS OF SWRN AND POTENTIALLY CENTRAL IND.
  
   AT 0435Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QUASI-LINEAR SYSTEM
   EXTENDING FROM SWRN IL THROUGH SERN MO TO NERN AR...WITH TWO PRIMARY
   BOWING SEGMENTS /1. IN SRN IL AND 2. IN NERN AR/.  CURRENT TRACKS OF
   THESE BOWS IS NE AT 40 KT WITH BOTH FEATURES EXITING WW 117 AND 118
   BY 06Z INTO SWRN IND AND WRN TN...RESPECTIVELY.
  
   00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW SSWLY WINDS STRENGTHENING INTO THE
   LOWER OH VALLEY AIDING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES EXTENDING NEWD ALONG AND JUST EAST OF ONGOING STORMS.  THE
   SPEED OF THE SRN IL BOW SEGMENT SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY OUTRUN THE
   DESTABILIZATION PROCESS INTO SWRN IND... LIMITING THE NRN EXTENT OF
   SEVERE STORMS /DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREAT/.  FARTHER S...RUC
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY CONDUCIVE FOR
   SURFACE BASED STORMS WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM
   SHEAR 40-50 KT PER MEM/PAH WSR-88D VWP DATA/ AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY.
  
   ..PETERS.. 05/01/2010
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...I LX...MEG...JAN...
   LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...
  
   LAT...LON   40308949 40378743 40168636 38498659 37648707 36498759
               34988817 34138828 33848992 33509119 33039219 32909435
               33039528 33809530 34909319 36069168 36499133 37039076
               37888967 38708943 39478955 40308949
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 01, 2010, 12:02:25 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0119_radar.gif)

   SEL9
  
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 119
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
          WESTERN TENNESSEE
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
  
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF OXFORD
   MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
  
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 117...WW 118...
  
   DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS/EMBEDDED BOWS WILL CONTINUE
   TO DEVELOP EWD OVERNIGHT FROM ERN AR...WHILE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ZONE OF WAA FROM NW MS INTO WRN
   TN.  A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
   ALREADY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT A
   CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE
   HAIL.
  
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
  
  
   ...THOMPSON
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 12:06:18 AM
the spc should be doing a update anytime. could be interesting
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 01, 2010, 12:07:54 AM
the spc should be doing a update anytime. could be interesting

Read my last post.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 12:13:19 AM
Appears as if the linear transition is nearly complete....winds should be the main threat now but spinup tornadoes are still possible at times...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 12:15:37 AM
tomorrow still looks very interesting kevin, do you think for west tn.?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 01, 2010, 12:18:41 AM
Looking at the one radar that I can see now on my backwoods bad weather internet it looks like things are starting to "fire" a little bit in northern miss. This doesn't appear to be severe yet by any means but things may be starting to cook down that way and moving up into west tn and western middle tn.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ccountz on May 01, 2010, 12:21:00 AM
Looking at the one radar that I can see now on my backwoods bad weather internet it looks like things are starting to "fire" a little bit in northern miss. This doesn't appear to be severe yet by any means but things may be starting to cook down that way and moving up into west tn and western middle tn.

It looked as if others agree...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1213 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

MSZ004-005-009-014-016-010545-
ALCORN MS-TIPPAH MS-PRENTISS MS-UNION MS-LEE MS-
1213 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1245 AM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  EASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF WHEELER AT 1213 AM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN ALCORN...LEE...PRENTISS...TIPPAH AND UNION COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BALDWYN AND BOONEVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 12:21:06 AM
Looks as if the line is extending well SW of Little Rock now...that will have to come up Northeast through Memphis before this "round" ends...could be dawn or later before that happens. "Junk" convection firing ahead it Northeast of there all the way up to the city...but don't see a significant severe threat in any of that South of I-40...think most of the severe locally will stay north of 40 for several hours yet...just a very slow east progression of the stuff back in Little Rock.

Tonight's convective evolution plays a big role in what happens tomorrow...probably setting up for I-40 North rest of Tonight...and I-40 South Tomorrow...though that could shift some over the next 18 hours.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on May 01, 2010, 12:26:11 AM
Kevin,i guess you read my post from earlier about what fred gossage posted about the nam for today.Do you forsee another moderate,if not high risk for us later on today?The cape is close to 3500 j/kg is pretty high and the ehi is between 3-4for our area around memphis.just wondering
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 12:29:22 AM
Kevin,i guess you read my post from earlier about what fred gossage posted about the nam for today.Do you forsee another moderate,if not high risk for us later on today?The cape is close to 3500 j/kg is pretty high and the ehi is between 3-4for our area around memphis.just wondering
There will probably be a MDT risk in the area...at least creeping into SW TN. Whether it verifies depend on whether this stuff moves out by morning...if it remains over the Memphis area all morning long...we'll be far too rain-cooled for a severe threat to develop...but if not significant destabilization will occur. Right now I could see it going either way...so this question needs another 12 hours of development to answer for sure.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 12:31:17 AM
yeah this stuff gets out tomorrow. get some breaks     , dry punch comes through. the dynamics are there to get pretty wild
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 12:45:50 AM
00Z NCEP HIRESW coming out attm. Will be interesting to see where they both paint QPF totals.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 12:52:18 AM
From now pretty much through 18Z Saturday.

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/images/hiresw_p12_018m.gif)

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/images/hiresw_p12_018l.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 01:05:56 AM
spc just came out with their update. tomorrow all of west tn is in a moderate risk.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on May 01, 2010, 01:09:54 AM
spc just came out with their update. tomorrow all of west tn is in a moderate risk.

NW Mississippi where I'm sitting as well.  Sounds like it could be another evening/overnight event if I read it right.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 01:18:06 AM
tornado warning for lake and obion county. nw tn. weak rotation right now
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 01:27:18 AM
well off to bed with my noaa radio by my side. got to get soome sleep, looks to be a active day twards later afternoon and early eveniing
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 01:31:56 AM
A bit of difference between the two here, but either way if this verifies it will be quite impressive.

The First 24 hour rain totals VIA Hi Res.

NNM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/images/hiresw_p24_024l.gif)






ARW
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/images/hiresw_p24_024m.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 01:34:43 AM
Wow totals through 48 hours.

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/images/hiresw_p48_048l.gif)

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/images/hiresw_p48_048m.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 01:38:59 AM
Do not know if this has been posted. But it does reflect what could be a major concern. Amounts are astonishing.

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 02:36:34 AM
There will probably be a MDT risk in the area...at least creeping into SW TN. Whether it verifies depend on whether this stuff moves out by morning...if it remains over the Memphis area all morning long...we'll be far too rain-cooled for a severe threat to develop...but if not significant destabilization will occur. Right now I could see it going either way...so this question needs another 12 hours of development to answer for sure.

Let it rain...I don't enjoy the tornados...exciting...yes, but the Super Tuesday and seeing the clear funnel about to go over my house and having a wife and a dog laying between the toilet and the wall (so the toilet can break the fall of a collapsing roof)....this is not fun to me.  Exciting...yes.  Fun....no.  I distinctly remember calculating my own chance of dying.  I think I thought about 10% but that was high when I think about all of the factors that would have to occur. Even at 1% or less....still not fun. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: StormNine on May 01, 2010, 03:04:29 AM
Quote
TORNADO WARNING
KYC035-221-010830-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0013.100501T0757Z-100501T0830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHERN TRIGG COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 330 AM CDT.

* AT 255 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 18 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF CANTON...OR 7 MILES EAST OF MURRAY....MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED...
  CANTON BY 315 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO IMPLEMENT YOUR TORNADO PLAN OF ACTION. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A HOME OR BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 8825 3687 8786 3668 8774 3664 8786
      3667 8788 3667 8806 3657 8804 3652 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 0757Z 243DEG 42KT 3662 8817

$$

This line isn't done yet.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: StormNine on May 01, 2010, 03:08:14 AM
Quote
TORNADO WARNING
TNC161-010830-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0019.100501T0805Z-100501T0830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
305 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN STEWART COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 330 AM CDT

* AT 300 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER EAST
  CENTRAL CALLOWAY COUNTY...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MURRAY...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL MOVE THROUGH LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AND BUMPUS MILLS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3668 8791 3667 8787 3665 8785 3665 8764
      3662 8763 3651 8805 3658 8805 3667 8808
      3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 236DEG 58KT 3665 8808

$$

BOYD

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 03:40:52 AM
i dont have the official statements, but tornado warnings i nfayette (somerville and jackson in the path (5 mi east of my location) moving ne.

also possible vortex se of brownsville with bemis and jackson, bluegoose in path.

both are moving ne @45mph
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 01, 2010, 03:47:33 AM
i dont have the official statements, but tornado warnings i nfayette (somerville and jackson in the path (5 mi east of my location) moving ne.

also possible vortex se of brownsville with bemis and jackson, bluegoose in path.

both are moving ne @45mph

I saw that be careful out there.  Neither storm seemed like much, though.

Also, that line of storms west of the river, are they ever going to cross?  It seems as though their progression as completely stalled and they are now training.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jilly on May 01, 2010, 03:51:29 AM
Quote
SEL2
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 122
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   315 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
          NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
          WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 315 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF NASHVILLE
   TENNESSEE TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
   WATCH NUMBER 119. WATCH NUMBER 119 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
   315 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 118...WW 120...WW 121...
   
   DISCUSSION...BKN BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...NOW
   EXTENDING FROM E CNTRL AR NE INTO WRN KY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
   EWD.  ADDITIONAL SMALLER STORMS MAY FORM IN CONFLUENT MOIST LOW LVL
   FLOW EXTENDING FROM SRN AR INTO NRN MS.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LVL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...STRENGTH OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR...AND QUALITY OF
   MOISTURE...SETUP MAY YIELD ISOLD TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG
   WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.  STORM STRENGTH/TORNADO THREAT MAY
   INCREASE TOWARD LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME
   HEATING...ESPECIALLY FROM SRN AR ENE INTO NRN MS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
   
   
   ...CORFIDI

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 04:06:24 AM
I saw that be careful out there.  Neither storm seemed like much, though.

Also, that line of storms west of the river, are they ever going to cross?  It seems as though their progression as completely stalled and they are now training.

they are slowly drifting. its slow... but they are moving.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 01, 2010, 04:09:14 AM
they are slowly drifting. its slow... but they are moving.

I'm talking about from about the Shelby-Tipton line and south.  It seems that their progress has stopped.  Now in Tipton, there is a batch heading southeast, but it seems to be part of a major reorientation of the storm axis.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 01, 2010, 04:10:35 AM
TORNADO WARNING
ARC035-077-123-MSC033-143-TNC157-010945-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0036.100501T0906Z-100501T0945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
406 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  EASTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 445 AM CDT

* AT 406 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MARIANNA...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HUGHES AND
  MARIANNA.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR HORN LAKE...HORSESHOE LAKE AND
  MIDWAY LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 9038 3504 9020 3500 9016 3471 9047
      3466 9064 3479 9080
TIME...MOT...LOC 0906Z 226DEG 44KT 3479 9064

$$
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 01, 2010, 04:11:38 AM
The sirens just started going off at my house.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 04:17:09 AM
another tornado warning near whiteville.. bemis and bluegoose in the path. ill post the bulletin when it comes out.  ne @ 45
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 04:19:35 AM
The sirens just started going off at my house.

Just got woken up myself
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 04:21:48 AM
another tornado warning near whiteville.. bemis and bluegoose in the path. ill post the bulletin when it comes out.  ne @ 45

Quote
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
414 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 500 AM CDT

* AT 415 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WHITEVILLE...OR 10
  MILES NORTHWEST OF BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  HENDERSON...JACKSON...CHICKASAW STATE PARK AND CHICKASAW STATE
  FOREST.


Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 01, 2010, 04:42:22 AM
My sister just called me from Rhodes, said the sirens were going off. Doesn't look like she is in the warning polygon though.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 04:43:29 AM
The sirens just started going off at my house.

@ 423am David Max confirmed a rotating wall cloud about 2mi nw commerce landing ms. this is from the spotternetwork.org thats what spawned the Tor warning for shelby
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 05:21:30 AM
man, sirens have been going off here for a hour in jackson.  after reading the new hwo outlook, they are saying the possiblity of long tracking  strong tornadoes for this evening. which is saturday night
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: lilapsophobic on May 01, 2010, 05:24:26 AM
I'm in Cordova, had to get the family into the storm shelter (one of the few in Memphis I think) and it really seemed like a false alarm.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 05:27:06 AM
as some one else quoted on another forum just a second ago. these storms areally satarting to thin out nicely. which doesnt bold to well later this afternoon and evening. the main show might just be later today.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 05:46:01 AM
a few pages back i believe kevin said they rain would taper off, wed get some dry slotting and then it would get bad again sat night. if the rain sticks around, that could limit the instability.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 05:52:09 AM
From the SPC, not sure if posted here yet or not...

Their PWO

Quote
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND...AND HAIL
   OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...THE LOWER TENNESSEE...AND THE
   LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
          SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
          SOUTHERN INDIANA
          SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
          NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
          WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   
   ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SURROUNDING THE MODERATE
   RISK AREA FROM EAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE UPPER
   OHIO VALLEY
   
   A STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR WILL CONVERGE OVER PARTS
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY...BENEATH A
   BELT OF VERY FAST...HIGH-ALTITUDE JET STREAM WINDS.
   
   THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM...AND DAYTIME
   HEATING...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-LIVED...SUPERCELL
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER PARTS OF
   ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...AND TENNESSEE TODAY.
  THESE STORMS WILL
   PERSIST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO
   TONIGHT...AND ALSO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO
   VALLEY...AS THE JET STREAM DISTURBANCE CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD.
   
   STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
   SITUATION.  THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
   WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
   WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS
   THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: David on May 01, 2010, 07:18:26 AM
Pea sized hail out here by priest lake
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 07:25:29 AM
Here we go again..

Quote
WFUS54 KMEG 011223
TORMEG
MSC033-093-TNC047-011315-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0038.100501T1223Z-100501T1315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
723 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
 SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 724 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BYHALIA...OR 13 MILES
  WEST OF HOLLY SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS
  OF EAST CENTRAL DESOTO...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHWESTERN
  FAYETTE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 07:29:43 AM
It looks like i might miss this first batch of rain, that i dont think will be very good will it.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 07:54:28 AM
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/spe/201005011225.gif)

This map shows a nice big dryslot from the -90 longitude line extending 60-80 miles back to the west of that line.  This is going to be the kicker for heating.  This map also nicely shows the next impulses, and shortwaves that are rounding the trof that will be affecting the area later today.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 07:56:50 AM
Toast on the radar, you can already see the little cells developing, i dont like that.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 07:58:20 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0443.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 08:01:09 AM
(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20100501_1300_prt.gif)
(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1probotlk_20100501_1300_torn_prt.gif)

Quote
 
254  
ACUS01 KWNS 011257  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 011256  
  
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0756 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010  
  
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z  
  
..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR...MS  
TN AND  
THE MO BOOTHEEL...

  
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA  
OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS...LWR TN AND LWR OH VLYS...  
  
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS  
FROM E TX NEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY...  
  
..SYNOPSIS  
  
HIGH AMPLITUDE CNTRL STATES TROUGH WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY E THIS  
PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED NRN PLAINS UPR LOW REMAINS QSTNRY AND ATTENDANT  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING CHIHUAHUA SHEARS ENE ACROSS W  
TX...OK...AND...BY SUN MORNING...KS/MO.  MID/UPR LVL  
SPEED MAX WITH THE CHIHUAHUA SYSTEM WILL REDEVELOP NE INTO N TX/OK  
BY THIS EVE...AND FURTHER EXPAND NE ACROSS MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS  
EARLY SUN.  
  
AT THE SFC...MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY FROM LWR MI  
TO E TX TODAY...WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY OVERNIGHT  
STORMS LIKELY TO LIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS AR AND THE LWR TN VLY.  A WAVE  
SHOULD FORM OVER NE TX OR THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY...NEAR  
INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH FRONT.  THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK  
NNE INTO THE LWR OH VLY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN.  
  
..E TX/LWR MS VLY INTO THE LWR TN/LWR OH VLYS THROUGH TONIGHT  
  
WSW-ENE ORIENTED QLCS OVER THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS MAY FURTHER WEAKEN  
LATER THIS MORNING AS WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD REGION AND SFC  
TEMPERATURES REACH DIURNAL MINIMUMS.  SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED  
INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR SHOULD...HOWEVER...SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF  
SOME STORMS IN WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MCS BY EARLY AFTN...WITH  
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TO ITS S OVER SRN/CNTRL AR AND NRN  
MS.  OTHER STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN OVER NE  
TX AND SE OK...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM CHIHUAHUA UPR  
IMPULSE INCREASES ATOP SHALLOW FRONT.  
  
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE /PW 1.50-1.75  
INCHES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR  
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND S OF MCS OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARY AND E OF FRONT...WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 2000 J/KG  
WITH MINIMAL CINH.  COUPLED WITH STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW TO MID LVL  
WIND FIELD...SETUP COULD SUPPORT SCTD SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH  
TORNADOES/SVR HAIL.  
  
AS THE CHIHUAHUA SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPR LVL SPEED MAX /WITH  
250 MB FLOW AROUND 150 KTS/ CONTINUE NEWD LATER THIS AFTN AND  
TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM SLY LLJ SHOULD MARKEDLY INCREASE OVER THE LWR  
MS AN TN VLYS.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF EXISTING  
STORMS...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...FROM THE ARKLATEX  
E/NEWD INTO THE LWR TN AND LWR OH VLYS THROUGH THE  
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  
  
60 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND DEEPLY-MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH NEARLY  
UNIDIRECTIONAL MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL ECHO  
TRAINING/LEWPS AS SFC WAVE TRACKS NE TOWARD THE OH VLY.  THE SETUP  
ULTIMATELY MAY SUPPORT MULTIPLE CORRIDORS HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONG TORNADOES FROM MUCH OF AR AND NRN MS NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL  
TN...WRN/CNTRL KY AND PERHAPS SRN IL/SRN INDIANA TONIGHT/EARLY SUN.  
  
..MIDDLE/UPR OH VLY  
  
ERN END OF AFOREMENTIONED QLCS SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS ERN KY AND  
CNTRL/ERN OH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.  DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION  
AND MODEST LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW MAY SUPPORT A MODEST SVR THREAT  
/DMGG WINDS OR AN ISOLD TORNADO/ THROUGH EARLY EVE.  ADDITIONAL  
STRONG TO SVR ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD  
/AFTER 06Z SUN/ AS SFC WAVE MOVES NE TOWARD THE LWR OH VLY AND  
ASSOCIATED LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER ERN KY/OH.  
  
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 05/01/2010  
 

Graphics to follow as available.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: JHart on May 01, 2010, 08:11:23 AM
I believe the HPC precipitation maps are out to lunch for Middle Tennessee.    To my eye, models have been consistently dpeicting this as a major event for extreme west Tennessee, with little if anything east of I-65 until Sunday, when a weakening band of rain moves through.  Aside from the threat of some isolated strong storms on Saturday, I think this will be a non-event east of I-65.



We just picked up .8 inches of rain in about twenty minutes.  I guess Mother Nature didn't get my memo.  ::doh::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 08:13:50 AM
toastido,  something tells me this is going to be a long evening in the midsouth my man.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 08:17:59 AM
Just woke up...so not jumping to any conclusions...but got to be honest...not sure about this High Risk. Still plenty of convection developing SW to LIT-PBF. Not seeing much opportunity for clearing that's going to set this up as a major outbreak...certainly severe weather but I just don't know...somebody who's been up for a few hours can explain to me why continued convective development...even if scattered...isn't a hinderance right now for really explosive potential later this afternoon. ;)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 08:21:42 AM
i wish i could explain to you kevin, but honestlyi have only had 2 hours of sleep. we had 3 nader warning this morning already in madison county. but spc seems very confident on this thing.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 08:26:10 AM
There may be a developing circulation near Bartlett in Shelby-Memphis Metro aloft...no TOR yet but please take cover just in case...about 60kts of shear about 4kft aloft...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 08:29:00 AM
Major flooding in Downtown Memphis with both I-40 and I-55 shut down


I-40 near St. Jude http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/cctv/cctvmemp/CCTV_12.asp
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 08:29:08 AM
i just looked at dome data on twister data, looks impressive for the midsouth
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 08:32:06 AM
nader warning for me now
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 08:36:39 AM
Some areas of Norhern Shelby per nexrad of already 8 inches of rain, poss more.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=nqa&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 01, 2010, 08:39:27 AM
New Day1-2 QPF
(http://lh3.ggpht.com/_O9AolIYS2RM/S9wuZxQDu-I/AAAAAAAAENA/Y8n153ogfCY/s800/d12_fill.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: JHart on May 01, 2010, 08:50:34 AM
Lascassas storm total is now 1.6 inches... one hour since the rain started.   ::wow::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 08:54:41 AM
Just woke up...so not jumping to any conclusions...but got to be honest...not sure about this High Risk. Still plenty of convection developing SW to LIT-PBF. Not seeing much opportunity for clearing that's going to set this up as a major outbreak...certainly severe weather but I just don't know...somebody who's been up for a few hours can explain to me why continued convective development...even if scattered...isn't a hinderance right now for really explosive potential later this afternoon. ;)

Kevin, I havent slept much last night... just naps between warnings. Theres been several warnings in eastern Fayette Co. I dont want to be so quick to say they were training cells... but they have been pretty close to the same track. They were all pretty much following Williston - Bemis - Bluegoose. There was a rotating wall cloud near tunica around 420am. I hope youre right and the high risk isnt warranted. The warning that Tostido posted about an hour ago passed about 5 miles to my east. So Im thankful for that. But Im praying for a stress free day out here.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 08:57:54 AM
  
Quote
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR  
TIPTON...SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD...SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...  
LAUDERDALE...SOUTHEASTERN POINSETT...CRITTENDEN...NORTHEASTERN ST.  
FRANCIS...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CROSS COUNTIES...  
  
..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN SHELBY AND TIPTON COUNTIES  
  
AT 852 AM CDT...SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL  
HAS OCCURRED IN TIPTON AND NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 6  
HOURS. WATER IS OVER MANY ROADS AND HOMES ARE FLOODED.  RESCUES HAVE  
BEEN REPORTED IN TIPTON COUNTY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.  
  

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE...  
FORREST CITY...KEISER...LEPANTO...LUXORA...MADISON.. .MARION...MARKED  
TREE...OSCEOLA...PARKIN...TYRONZA...WEST MEMPHIS...WILSON...WYNNE...  
BARTLETT...COLLIERVILLE...COVINGTON...GERMAN TOWN...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...  
MILLINGTON...RIPLEY...CORDOVA...FORT PILLOW STATE PARK...MEEMAN  
SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK.  
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 09:00:01 AM
Well, it looks like the trof axis is swinging through middle TN currently, which is why there is a 'linear' line of convection that pushed through fairly rapidly.  Behind that trof, however, the there is limited to no forcing mechanism.  Current position was splitting Davidson county nearly down the middle, along a line from roughly Waynesboro, TN, to Scottsville, KY. Behind the trof (in fact, almost immediately behind it), there are tornado warnings in west tennessee.  Be very weather aware today.  Dewpoints are on the rise, and if that dryslot that was lingering around the MS river makes it's way in during daytime heating, we could be setting up for a challenging evening across the entire TN valley/OH valley areas.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 09:01:18 AM
 
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR 
TIPTON...SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD...SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE... 
LAUDERDALE...SOUTHEASTERN POINSETT...CRITTENDEN...NORTHEASTERN ST. 
FRANCIS...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CROSS COUNTIES... 
   
..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN SHELBY AND TIPTON COUNTIES 
 
AT 852 AM CDT...SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL   
HAS OCCURRED IN TIPTON AND NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 6   
HOURS. WATER IS OVER MANY ROADS AND HOMES ARE FLOODED.  RESCUES HAVE   
BEEN REPORTED IN TIPTON COUNTY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL   
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. 
 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE... 
FORREST CITY...KEISER...LEPANTO...LUXORA...MADISON.. .MARION...MARKED 
TREE...OSCEOLA...PARKIN...TYRONZA...WEST MEMPHIS...WILSON...WYNNE... 
BARTLETT...COLLIERVILLE...COVINGTON...GERMAN TOWN...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS... 
MILLINGTON...RIPLEY...CORDOVA...FORT PILLOW STATE PARK...MEEMAN 
SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK. 

Lots of emergency vehicles responding to various calls in the area. That one cell is just training over the worst hit areas already.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 09:02:09 AM
Just wanted to post a couple of reminders before business picks up this aternoon and evening:

1).  We are currently under SWM here at TNWX.  Please adhere to the rules and policies concerning SWM.  If you are unfamiliar with those rules and polices, please refer to this page:

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2376.0.html

2).  If you post ANYTHING from an outside source, we ask that you utilize the quote feature...it makes them easier to read.

Thanks from the TNWX Staff.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 09:02:58 AM
News 2 just said that there is a confirmed tornado on the ground in decatur county.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 09:04:48 AM
whats got me kind of worried is, the fact most of these warning have been dopler indicated. when the real action get going   i am afraid these warning are fixing to mean buisness and get ugly. and people will shrug them off
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 09:06:08 AM
BTW...I believe that's only the second-ever flash flood emergency in the entire nation...one was issued in Louisville, KY about a year ago...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 09:07:34 AM
News 2 just said that there is a confirmed tornado on the ground in decatur county.

Rotation not THAT impressive...hmm......

Maybe because it's smack dab in the middle of the KNQA and KOHX radars.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 09:09:44 AM
Rotation not THAT impressive...hmm......

Maybe because it's smack dab in the middle of the KNQA and KOHX radars.
He said that the National weather service out of memphis confirmed that radar confirmed a tornado on the ground. So i dont know at all im just reporting what they said.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 09:11:31 AM
He said that the National weather service out of memphis confirmed that radar confirmed a tornado on the ground. So i dont know at all im just reporting what they said.

I believe he just read the warning text wrong, MEG's warning text never mentions an confirmed tornado on the ground, just mentions radar indicated.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 09:11:49 AM
He said that the National weather service out of memphis confirmed that radar confirmed a tornado on the ground. So i dont know at all im just reporting what they said.

Hmm... radar can't confirm a tornado on the ground.  It can *INDICATE* that there is *POSSIBLY* a tornado on the ground...  Since this is a 'he said they said' it should be taken as hearsay until it's either reported as officially on the ground via bulletin or other reliable outlet.   I don't think the NWS will say it's on the ground without visual confirmation.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 01, 2010, 09:11:55 AM
Rotation not THAT impressive...hmm......

Maybe because it's smack dab in the middle of the KNQA and KOHX radars.

Thanks for confirming my same observation. I just wasn't seeing it, thinking the same thing.

BTW, new TOR warn:
Quote
WFUS54 KMEG 011408
TORMEG
TNC023-077-113-011500-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0042.100501T1408Z-100501T1500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
908 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  WEST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 907 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF CHICKASAW
  STATE PARK...OR NEAR CHICKASAW STATE FOREST...MOVING NORTHEAST    
  AT 30 MPH. ANOTHER INTENSIFYING THUNDERTORM IN EASTERN MADISON    
  COUNTY IS INDICATING WEAK ROTATION AND COULD ALSO BECOME SEVERE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLUE
  GOOSE...HENDERSON...JACKS CREEK...MIFFLIN AND CHICKASAW STATE PARK.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR PINE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 8860 3552 8836 3536 8880 3549 8887
TIME...MOT...LOC 1407Z 231DEG 26KT 3540 8889

$$
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 09:14:12 AM
Ok sorry about that i was just trying to be helpful but its ok. ;)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 09:15:31 AM
Hmm... radar can't confirm a tornado on the ground.  It can *INDICATE* that there is *POSSIBLY* a tornado on the ground...  Since this is a 'he said they said' it should be taken as hearsay until it's either reported as officially on the ground via bulletin or other reliable outlet.   I don't think the NWS will say it's on the ground without visual confirmation.

But, I have heard some warning text say something along the lines of this, "National Weather Service meteorologist are tracking a tornado about 5 miles NW of 'SaidCity'"

Now I disagree 100% with that type of warning text, how do they know for certain it is on the ground if they have no confirmation?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 09:16:49 AM
News2 just confirmed a "possible" tornado near Bible Hill (i.e. Doppler indicated).
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 09:17:01 AM
But, I have heard some warning text say something along the lines of this, "National Weather Service meteorologist are tracking a tornado about 5 miles NW of 'SaidCity'"

Now I disagree 100% with that type of warning text, how do they know for certain it is on the ground if they have no confirmation?
Thats why im confused, how can you track a tornado without visual conformation.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 09:17:11 AM
Ok, I see where Justin is getting his reasoning from...

Quote
Tornado Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
913 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

TNC039-011430-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0041.000000T0000Z-100501T1430Z/
DECATUR TN-
913 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT FOR NORTHERN
DECATUR COUNTY...

AT 912 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR BIBLE HILL
...OR 9 MILES EAST OF NATCHEZ TRACE STATE FOREST...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SUGAR TREE...
COZETTE...BIBLE HILL...HICKORY FORKS AND BUSSELTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.


There is no confirmation of a tornado, but MEG is making it sound like there is one on the ground...confusing.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 09:18:13 AM
But, I have heard some warning text say something along the lines of this, "National Weather Service meteorologist are tracking a tornado about 5 miles NW of 'SaidCity'"

Now I disagree 100% with that type of warning text, how do they know for certain it is on the ground if they have no confirmation?

I think it completely reckless to "confirm" a TOR on the ground without ANY ground truth.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 09:20:44 AM
Good morning everyone! Just finish catching up with this morning discussion. Everyone remember to be responsible and safe today.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 09:21:06 AM
I think it completely reckless to "confirm" a TOR on the ground without ANY ground truth.


Exactly, I've never liked that type of warning text and have found it odd that they are allowed to keep that type of behavior in play.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 09:21:38 AM
nice rotation on that cell in shelby county now
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: angrypug on May 01, 2010, 09:23:29 AM
Looks like SPC dropped the high risk area???  ::pondering:: If so that was a quick change.........
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 09:25:51 AM
Looks like SPC dropped the high risk area???  ::pondering:: If so that was a quick change.........

hasn't been dropped, where are you seeing that. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 09:26:03 AM
Looks like SPC dropped the high risk area???  ::pondering:: If so that was a quick change.........

It's still there, their page is updating so sometimes it looks like they haven't updated it.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: angrypug on May 01, 2010, 09:27:44 AM
hasn't been dropped, where are you seeing that. 

Think their having some image issues.  The previous outlook is randomly appearing on occasion.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 09:29:11 AM
Nice couplet S of Jackson...

(http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj14/eric_in_smyrna/tn1-1.png)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 09:31:11 AM
Nice couplet S of Jackson...

(http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj14/eric_in_smyrna/tn1-1.png)
Look at the hook on that one, really good rotation there.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 09:34:32 AM
Hey Eric, can you post the image of the "doppler indicated tornado" thats just south of Olive Branch MS? Can you point out the couplet? Theres too much on my radar for me to pinpoint its exact location.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 09:36:56 AM
Hey Eric, can you post the image of the "doppler indicated tornado" thats just south of Olive Branch MS? Can you point out the couplet? Theres too much on my radar for me to pinpoint its exact location.

Sure.  Not quite sure where the rotation is...it could be elevated.  This is a BV screenshot.

(http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj14/eric_in_smyrna/tn2-1.png)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 09:44:53 AM
Sure.  Not quite sure where the rotation is...it could be elevated.  This is a BV screenshot.

(http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj14/eric_in_smyrna/tn2-1.png)

You won't see it on BV unless it's strong rotation because of the differences in the algorithms in BV and SRV.  BV is based on the surface winds.  SRV is based on the storms motion vs suface winds (i think).  SRV is used to indicate the possibility of tornadoes (usually what the issue the warnings on).  When it appears on BV, it's possibly producing. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 09:49:31 AM
unreal, the music fest goes on as scheduled today in memphis, even thoght all this rain and a high risk for later predicted
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 09:49:58 AM
You won't see it on BV unless it's strong rotation because of the differences in the algorithms in BV and SRV.  BV is based on the surface winds.  SRV is based on the storms motion vs suface winds (i think).  SRV is used to indicate the possibility of tornadoes (usually what the issue the warnings on).  When it appears on BV, it's possibly producing. 

Thanks for the info.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 09:50:21 AM
Thanks for that info Toastido.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 09:52:11 AM
Limited resources today, but does anyone see rotation in the storm in Western Tate Co MS/ Southern Desoto Co MS, just to the southwest of Memphis near Arkabutla Lake? May not be anything but am curious.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 09:54:33 AM
WMC reports firefighters responding to rescuce call for floodng in North Memphis have become trapped themselves underwater after their firetruck flipped over from rushing water...WMC was told not to try and go to that scene for pictures...far too dangerous...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 09:54:44 AM
they just extended the tornado watch until  4 pm, thats a no brainer. proablby be another after that.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 09:56:49 AM
they just extended the tornado watch until  4 pm, thats a no brainer. proablby be another after that.

Yeah... Interestingly, the probability table is higher now too..

Quote

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

WT 0124
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        :  70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES         :  40%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS :  90%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU4.

Actual watch text:

Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   950 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          NORTHWEST ALABAMA
          SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
          NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
          NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
          WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 950 AM UNTIL
   400 PM CDT.
   
   SEVERAL TORNADOES
   ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

   SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
   ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
   SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
   ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122...
   
   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
   TN/MS/LA THIS MORNING...WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
   WIDESPREAD WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE
   RISK OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
   THROUGHOUT THE REGION IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.
   POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE
   RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
   
   
   ...HART
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 09:59:26 AM
incredible numbers there toastido
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 10:00:30 AM
Why is it not PDS? Being in a High risk it should be...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 10:02:03 AM
Why is it not PDS? Being in a High risk it should be...
It should definatley be, i have some scatter convection developing to my south.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 10:03:32 AM
thought all watches in a high risk area waranted a pds
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 10:05:31 AM
I notice east arkansas has been virtually rain free for several hours.. does this mean they are going to get some heating/dry slot? This could be bad. Since WTN is still in the rain, should I assume that the threat shouldnt be as bad?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 10:06:24 AM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1004 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 1004 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OLIVE
  BRANCH...OR NEAR HERNANDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OLIVE
  BRANCH...COLLIERVILLE...GERMANTOWN AND SOUTHEAST MEMPHIS.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 10:06:54 AM
Yup just what I thought. TOR for Shelby....again from the storm in Desoto.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 10:07:01 AM
I notice east arkansas has been virtually rain free for several hours.. does this mean they are going to get some heating/dry slot? This could be bad. Since WTN is still in the rain, should I assume that the threat shouldnt be as bad?

This dry air will spread eastward over time, it is much like last weekend's threat. Steady rain around, but once it quits things will head south in a hurry and destabilization will take place.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 10:08:46 AM
High Risk really looks to get going late this afternoon into tonight. PDS watches would later this afternoon I would think.

BTW- nexrad estimates of a foot of rain in NE Shelby Co and Tipton Counties...INSANE!!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 10:11:23 AM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
935 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SPC DAY1 HIGH RISK FOR SVR WX INCLUDES W MID TN. HIGHER INSTAB ACR
NORTHERN MS/AL AT THIS TIME...WITH MORE STABLE AIR IN N MID TN FM
MORNING RAINS.

SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISO SUPERCELLS MOVG INTO MID TN TDAY...INCL N
MID TN W/DEEER LAYER INSTAB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO FIVE INCHES RAINFALL IN W MID TN THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL UP
TO EIGHT INCHES THIS WEEKEND.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 10:12:33 AM
yeas exactly kurt, fred gossage  said you can clearly see a dry punch coming through arkie now. things look on track for the high risk he says
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 10:15:44 AM
Quote
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1010 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

MSC033-TNC157-011545-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-100501T1545Z/
DESOTO MS-SHELBY TN-
1010 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY AND NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTIES...

AT 1009 AM CDT...DESOTO COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED STRONG
ROTATION OVERHEAD.  THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
NESBIT...OR NEAR HERNANDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OLIVE
BRANCH...COLLIERVILLE...GERMANTOWN...SOUTHEA ST MEMPHIS...BAILEY...
CAPLEVILLE...PARKWAY VILLAGE...WHITE STATION...NESBIT...JAGO AND PLUM
POINT.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 10:16:30 AM
Looks like a lot of "junkvection" going on in middle TN currently, which has kept temps down to due evaporational (is that even a word? LOL) cooling.

Down here, we have Td's in the 72/66 to 74/68 area.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 10:16:58 AM
(http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/satellite/latest_MGM_vis.jpg)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 10:17:14 AM
I-40 Memphis...
http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/cctv/cctvmemp/CCTV_4.asp
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 10:17:56 AM
classic hook echo on weathertap radar on that southaven tornado in progress.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 10:18:45 AM
I-40 Memphis...
(http://pub2.camera.trafficland.com/image/live.jpg?system=tdot&webid=2478&pubtoken=777b6df38eab89f1e28a37b9cbd7f78e&r=0.46108060579695465)

Good grief....that's incredible
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 10:21:03 AM
Quote
031
FLUS44 KHUN 011519
HWOHUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1019 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-020400-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1019 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE CLOSER TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THEREFORE HAVE A HIGHER THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT WHERE STORMS TRACK
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALSO HAVE A HIGHER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS EVEN RIVER FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NECESSARY FOR TODAY...AND IS LIKELY SUNDAY.


$$

KNS
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: tnbassman on May 01, 2010, 10:22:48 AM
71 and 63 here in Roane Co.Periods of sun all morning clouds rolling in now. Line about to come off plateau.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 10:24:01 AM
These NESDIS graphics are truly quite informative.

(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/spe/201005011441.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 10:25:45 AM
Here is what Justin Bruce said at 10:12 this morning about the morning rain...

Quote
Unfortunately, I don’t think this morning’s rain will diminish the severe weather threat for this afternoon or tomorrow too much. Strong moist southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico interacting with decent jet stream aloft should overcome the rain-cooled air. We’ll watch it for you!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 10:25:51 AM
BTW...Beale Street Music Festival has "no plans" for any delays or cancellations...despite damage and flooding on-site...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 10:28:02 AM
thats just mind bogling there to me kevin. with the high risk later and already damage and flooding.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 10:29:07 AM
Contraflow has been activated on US 51 in Shelby/Tipton County to allow two-way traffic...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 10:30:07 AM
BTW...Beale Street Music Festival has "no plans" for any delays or cancellations...despite damage and flooding on-site...

Sounds like they're truly trying to fulfill their "New Orleans" feel...lol

On a serious note, this High risk might be a bit premature, but I have a feeling the SPC is playing it safe since the last one DID verify last night, and the instability will only be greater throughout the day.  
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 10:32:23 AM
watch out Curt!

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1028 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 1028 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF CORDOVA...
  OR NEAR GERMANTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  ARLINGTON...EADS...LAKELAND AND CORDOVA.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 10:35:16 AM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1026 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COLUMBIA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 1017 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
  HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SPRING     
  HILL...COLUMBIA...AND MOUNT PLEASANT.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING CREEKS AND
STREAMS...CARTERS CREEK...RUTHERFORD CREEK...GREENLICK CREEK...AND
OTHER TRIBUTARIES OF THE DUCK RIVER.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 10:36:54 AM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT W/WATCH #124 UNTIL 4 PM EDT. SOME EARLIER
COLLOBRATION W/SPC ABOUT POSSIBLE PDS WATCH LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
MAIN AREA FOR PDS WATCH WEST OF MID TN TNGT...BUT WL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY WITH NEW LLJ SHIFTING EAST TNGT.

&&
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 10:38:21 AM
Glad OHX gave us some updates about the watch status...quiets that question.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 10:43:52 AM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1035 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKLIN...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 1023 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
  HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...AND   
  CREEKS...STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES OF THE HARPETH RIVER...AND WEST   
  HARPETH RIVER.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 11:02:02 AM
There should be a Flash Flood Warning out soon for South West Davidson County soon.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 11:04:22 AM
noticing how the cells back in arkie starting to flare and show more of a discrete look to them. word is the cleaning house is fixing to take shape in the next 4 hours.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 11:04:39 AM
Mostly just a ton of rain here. Closing in on a foot of rain here in Arlington in the weather station.

Hard to believe that breaks and even some clearing is not far behind if you are in Memphis right now:
http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=LIT&isingle=multiple&itype=vis
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 11:08:02 AM
yes ist closing in on us. these storms should if that happens will take on a more of a long track look to them later. than the quick spin ups. fred kind of explain to me. in a message
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 11:09:32 AM
It seems like Fayette Co. has been under a Tornado warning for 4 hours...

geez..incredible

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1105 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

* AT 1106 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  SOMERVILLE...OR NEAR COLLIERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 11:11:22 AM
looks like the frontal boundary trying to lift north. puting us in a more of a unstable air with some clearing with the retreviing boundary
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 01, 2010, 11:17:34 AM
Nothing but a whole lot of rain here this morning.  It's nice and cool out as were sitting at about 66 degrees. Sounds like many areas have already had a rough go of it.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 11:26:00 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0444.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...
   
   VALID 011619Z - 011715Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124 CONTINUES.
   
   QUASI STATIONARY MCS REMAINS ELONGATED IN AN E-W FASHION ACROSS MUCH
   OF WRN/MIDDLE TN.  ALTHOUGH LLJ MAY RELAX A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS INTO MIDDLE TN...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MS RIVER AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS
   STRENGTHENING SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG WRN/SRN FRINGE OF MCS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...PWAT
   APPROACHING 2 INCHES.  NET RESULT APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED HEAVY
   RAIN THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/MIDDLE TN.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 11:31:58 AM
New update coming out from the SPC...I don't see them changing it much at all.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 11:34:30 AM
High Risk being moved to along/West of the MS River...probably a good call...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 11:35:39 AM
High Risk being moved to along/West of the MS River...probably a good call...

Yep, just saw that...MDT risk and slight risk seem to be in the same locations, for us anyway.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 11:38:00 AM
it will be interesting to see if it moves back later   when the action really starts towards evening
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 11:39:54 AM
it will be interesting to see if it moves back later   when the action really starts towards evening
I think SPC is seeing the obvious in that the rain is going nowhere over most of West TN...and that's going to limit the severe threat there...including your area...though by no means is it done with...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 11:42:48 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20100501_1630_prt.gif)

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1probotlk_20100501_1630_torn_prt.gif)

Quote
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
   
   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NRN
   LA...ERN AND SRN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN AND THE MO BOOTHEEL...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF AR...LA...MS...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...SWRN IN...WRN
   KY...WRN TN...NWRN AL AND NRN/CENTRAL MS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD
   INTO OH VALLEY...
   
   TORNADO OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
   ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
   ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND
   NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   INTO THE CENTRAL STATES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THIS
   PERIOD. WITHIN THIS LARGE TROUGH...A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE...WILL
   EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD FROM SWRN TX INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO...ALONG WITH AN
   ACCOMPANYING 90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
   A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER TODAY
   AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
   QUASI-STATIONARY FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO ERN TX. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
   WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT...FROM NERN TX INTO AR THIS
   EVENING...AND INTO MO/IL OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...ERN TX...LOWER MS VALLEY...LWR TN AND OH VALLEYS...
   AT MID MORNING...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM TN WWD INTO
   PORTIONS OF NRN MS/SERN AR...AND VERY MOIST SLY FLOW MAY MAINTAIN
   THIS QUASI-STATIONARY MCS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
   POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STORMS ON THE
   SOUTH END OF THE COMPLEX...THOUGH TRAINING STORMS SUGGEST HEAVY
   RAINS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE  AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHER
   STORMS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THESE BAND OF STORMS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF ERN LA...MS AND NWRN AL...WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
   FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.
   
   HOWEVER...AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW IN THE ARKLATEX
   REGION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN
   DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEWD MOVING SURFACE LOW. THESE
   STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY STRONG
   INSTABILITY...MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND 60-70 KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR. THESE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS.
   THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...EXTREME LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORS LONG
   LIVED AND VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS. THE GREATEST
   THREAT FOR THE VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL BE IN THE ARKLATEX BY
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
   HIGH RISK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE
   STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ADVANCE NEWD INTO WRN TN/LOWER OH VALLEY
   OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
..SOME POSSIBLY STRONG.
   HOWEVER...SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKER
   ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOWER
   THAN ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.
   
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 11:43:56 AM
High Risk being moved to along/West of the MS River...probably a good call...

So, by trimming the watch back, is SPC saying that the threat is over here in Memphis?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 11:45:12 AM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image5.gif)

Well even this graphic is outdated.  Trim back High Risk to Mod Risk.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 11:47:07 AM
Radar trends for Middle TN... noticing some new cellular development south of the main batch of rain and storms in southwestern Middle TN.  It is moving northeast.

As already alluded to, I think our main challenge for seeing more "outbreak" potential is the saturated nature of the activity right now.  We'll see what happens if anything can manage to dry out during maximum heating today.

I expect a lot of the tornadoes today might tend to be rain-wrapped.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 11:48:19 AM
So, by trimming the watch back, is SPC saying that the threat is over here in Memphis?

By NO means... Memphis is still in the edge of the high risk, and the moderate risk still covers a big chunk of TN in the latest outlook.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on May 01, 2010, 11:51:53 AM
When the tornado warning was issued for desoto and shelby around 1030am,i personally saw the tornado on the ground for a brief moment just northeast of where i live in southaven,but then the rains really picked up and couldnt see it anymore.Kevin,even thought the spc trimmed the eastern areas in the high risk back,we are still in the high risk.The spc usually changes these risk areas constantly seems like
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 11:53:34 AM
I still am waiting for the Flash Flood Warning to be released for SW Davidson County where Thunder and I sit.  We have been getting pounded all morning and are starting to pick up amounts similar to the West of us.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 11:54:23 AM
Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WAVERLY                 36.09N 87.79W
05/01/2010  E10.76 INCH      HUMPHREYS          TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 10.76 INCHES OF RAIN AT TIME
            OF CALL...AND STILL RAINING. ALSO REPORTED HALF INCH HAIL
            AT TIME OF CALL.

 ::wow::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 11:54:31 AM
the spc will likely shift things back later as things get going on. they are saying more later tonight a tornado outbreak for west tn. and midosuth
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 11:54:43 AM
Watching the cell along the MS River in Arkansas about to enter Phillips Co. Wonder how long it will be before this rotates.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 12:00:09 PM
Radar trends for Middle TN... noticing some new cellular development south of the main batch of rain and storms in southwestern Middle TN.  It is moving northeast.

As already alluded to, I think our main challenge for seeing more "outbreak" potential is the saturated nature of the activity right now.  We'll see what happens if anything can manage to dry out during maximum heating today.

I expect a lot of the tornadoes today might tend to be rain-wrapped.


And there in lies the danger...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 12:00:38 PM
By NO means... Memphis is still in the edge of the high risk, and the moderate risk still covers a big chunk of TN in the latest outlook.

Why are they trimming the watch back then...I mean we are on the very edge and it looks like we're about to get "trimmed out."  I wouldn't be upset by that as I've had about 3 hours of broken sleep between watching it come in until 2 am until the sirens woke me up at 4:15.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 12:03:17 PM
And there in lies the danger...

Too bad because I've already spoken with someone today who's "done with it" and is no longer paying attention because "none of them have been real tornadoes"

Thing is, the good Skywarn crew is gonna have trouble confirming actual tornadoes if the High Risk verifies tonight...rain-wrapped and nighttime tornadoes are very difficult to see. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 12:07:11 PM
WHBQ skycam location in Covington, TN (Tipton County) has recorded 13.03" of rain since Midnight...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 12:09:04 PM
Why are they trimming the watch back then...I mean we are on the very edge and it looks like we're about to get "trimmed out."  I wouldn't be upset by that as I've had about 3 hours of broken sleep between watching it come in until 2 am until the sirens woke me up at 4:15.



The morning batch of storms is pushing out, so there may be a lull in the activity.  That's a good enough reason to cancel parts of the watch if the risk is lower.

But, that "lull" could give the atmosphere time to recover a few hours from now, which might be when an increased risk returns.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 12:09:45 PM
Why are they trimming the watch back then...I mean we are on the very edge and it looks like we're about to get "trimmed out."  I wouldn't be upset by that as I've had about 3 hours of broken sleep between watching it come in until 2 am until the sirens woke me up at 4:15.



This watch has mostly the elevated warnings in them. I would almost guarantee a new watch within a couple of hours in central and east arkansas, maybe across the MS river. I would think the poss of a PDS watch is there as well.

The general convection is moving out of Memphis. We will see if the instability can move northward as is forecast.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 12:15:48 PM
2-hr delay for Beale Street Music Festival...for cleanup of damage in that area. Program director says they are closely monitoring increasing flooding/tornado threat but will not make specific calls for any evacuations until there is an imminent threat should it develop...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 12:16:09 PM
Thunder check it out.
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/belt1_hg.png)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 12:19:31 PM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 011718
SVROHX
TNC021-043-011745-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0052.100501T1718Z-100501T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF DICKSON...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES NORTH OF BURNS BY 1225 PM CDT...
  WHITE BLUFF BY 1235 PM CDT...
  KINGSTON SPRINGS BY 1245 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 8709 3607 8706 3603 8751 3621 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 261DEG 32KT 3614 8740

$$

LAROSA




Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 12:21:03 PM
WREG showing the fire truck rescue video right now...wow...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 12:23:24 PM
yeah watching it now kevin, amaziing there.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 12:25:32 PM
Excuse me for going off topic real quick, but is anyone having Radar trouble out of GRlevel3?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 12:26:16 PM
Excuse me for going off topic real quick, but is anyone having Radar trouble out of GRlevel3?

Yep.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 12:28:16 PM
Thunder check it out.
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/belt1_hg.png)

Yeah... I think she'll be going out of her banks in the next day or two for sure...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 12:28:44 PM
Yep.
Yep.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 12:35:09 PM
Has anyone experienced the bow echo east of Jackson? Really bowing out now. I imagine its got some pretty intense sustained winds.

And I don't have GR3, but the app that uses the same data on my iphone is having issues.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 12:36:29 PM
Has anyone experienced the bow echo east of Jackson? Really bowing out now. I imagine its got some pretty intense sustained winds.

And I don't have GR3, but the app that uses the same data on my iphone is having issues.

That segment continues to be warned...

Quote
TNC017-023-039-077-011800-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0136.000000T0000Z-100501T1800Z/
DECATUR TN-CARROLL TN-HENDERSON TN-CHESTER TN-
1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CHESTER...HENDERSON...SOUTHERN CARROLL AND NORTHERN
DECATUR COUNTIES...

AT 1228 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM HOWLEY TO SAND RIDGE TO JACKS CREEK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 13 MILES EAST OF MILAN TO LEXINGTON TO 8 MILES EAST OF
HENDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BARGERTON...
BLUE GOOSE...BUENA VISTA...CEDAR GROVE...CLARKSBURG...DARDEN...
DECATURVILLE...HENDERSON...JACKS CREEK...LEXINGTON...MIDDLE FORK...
MIFFLIN...PARKER'S CROSS ROADS AND PARSONS.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BEECH LAKE...PIN OAK LAKE AND
  PINE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 12:40:16 PM
Using GRlevel3 Radar through weatherunderground seems to be working fine tho.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 12:41:16 PM
This flash flooding event is absolutely phenomenal from a weather weenie perspective.  I'm in awe at the rainfall totals...the 13"+ observation from one of the local TV stations weathernet or whatever is just astounding...13"+ since midnight.  The pics and video are bearing that out, too.  
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 12:42:07 PM
Nashville about to get it again...

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1241 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  CENTRAL CHEATHAM COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1236 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ASHLAND
  CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ASHLAND CITY BY 1250 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 8684 3613 8681 3611 8726 3629 8729
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 261DEG 32KT 3621 8716

$$
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 12:46:18 PM
One thing I'm really sad about is that this system is producing the conditions necessary for coastal flooding on our beautiful gulf coasts and are, hence, bringing the oil spill to shore.  This is terrible, terrible. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 12:52:12 PM
Reports of boat rescues on I-40 around Centerville ...source TWC...

Quote
05/01 12:36 PM Flood 10 N Centerville Hickman, TN BOAT RESCUES ALONG I-40 NEAR MILE MARKER 153/154.
From: PUBLIC
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 12:59:04 PM
Quote
05/01 12:38 PM Flood 8 S Nashville Davidson, TN EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTS CLOSING OF BLUFF RD. AND CULVERTSON RD.
From: EMERGENCY MNGR
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 01:01:44 PM
A new SVR warning just went up for intensifying cells in eastern Arkansas.

Could be the beginning of things getting underway over in that area once again.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 01:03:23 PM
Breaks in the clouds seem inevitable, although there is stil some junk developing in the immediate metro. I just had a 10 minute period of sun, so it tells me that things are drying out a bit.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=LIT&isingle=single&itype=vis
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 01:05:45 PM
Breaks in the clouds seem inevitable, although there is stil some junk developing in the immediate metro. I just had a 10 minute period of sun, so it tells me that things are drying out a bit.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=LIT&isingle=single&itype=vis

Same here in Corvegas.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 01:06:07 PM
The cell northeast of De Valls Bluff, AR is taking on a suspicious look to me...

Looking at velocity scans as well.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 01:06:56 PM
Quote
05/01 12:50 PM 13.34 in. Heavy Rain Waverly Humphreys, TN STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER LAST 24HRS MEASURED AT 13.34 INCHES BY TRAINED SPOTTER.
From: TRAINED SPOTTER
05/01 12:59 PM Flood 7 S Waverly Humphreys, TN SPOTTER RELAYING REPORTS OF WATER RESCUES NEAR THE HUMPHREYS AND HICKMAN COUNTY LINE...NEAR MILE MARKER 148 ALONG INTERSTATE 40.
From: TRAINED SPOTTER
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 01:08:19 PM
The cell northeast of De Valls Bluff, AR is taking on a suspicious look to me...

Looking at velocity scans as well.

Just getting ready to say...thinking a TOR could be on the way for Woodruff County AR in a bit. I have family in McCrory, so it looks like that cell may move just to the east of there.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 01:09:11 PM
TOR warning just goes up in northern MS...

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
105 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 105 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  BETHLEHEM...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF OXFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  BETHLEHEM...BLUE MOUNTAIN AND GRAVESTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 8910 3465 8896 3443 8943 3452 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 231DEG 39KT 3452 8939

$$

That will be moving in TN eventually.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 01:10:19 PM
Just getting ready to say...thinking a TOR could be on the way for Woodruff County AR in a bit. I have family in McCrory, so it looks like that cell may move just to the east of there.

It's definitely hooking now.  I think I see conflicting velocities.

Looks like a supe.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Cameron K. on May 01, 2010, 01:15:40 PM
Guys I haven't seen flooding like this in my entire 14 years living here!!! The river at West harpeth and Sedberry is well out of it's banks. They haven't closed it, but I really think they need to and man a cop there. Stupid people are driving through it and I'm sure somebody is fixin to get swept away.  And old farmer lives there too and I know his house is about to flood out since he's about 60ft from the river.  Pictures soon...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 01:17:39 PM
Guys I haven't seen flooding like this in my entire 14 years living here!!! The river at West harpeth and Sedberry is well out of it's banks. They haven't closed it, but I really think they need to and man a cop there. Stupid people are driving through it and I'm sure somebody is fixin to get swept away.  And old farmer lives there too and I know his house is about to flood out since he's about 60ft from the river.  Pictures soon...

The thing is... we're still fairly early in this event...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 01:19:06 PM
Okay... it looks like we have twin supercells with rotation in northern MS now... heading northeast...

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
117 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 117 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES WEST OF
  KEOWNVILLE...OR 7 MILES WEST OF NEW ALBANY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS
  OF NORTHERN UNION AND SOUTHERN TIPPAH COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 01:21:02 PM
Water Vapor shows drier air finally making headway up the MS river delta towards Memphis. Will have to see how quickly things can destabilize to produce high risk volotility.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=LIT&isingle=multiple&itype=wv
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 01:24:18 PM
Cell previously discussed in eastern AR doesn't look quite as impressive now as it did, and it is still "only" triggering SVR warnings.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 01:25:14 PM
yeah things are finally changing. more unstable air trying move in. tv 5 downplaying the severe risk for later. what new
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 01, 2010, 01:28:44 PM
WKRN2 is streaming at a water rescue in Dickson County at hwy96 & turnbull creek where some kids went on down on a raft. Water rescue units there now
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/news-2-storm-chaser
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: JHart on May 01, 2010, 01:32:00 PM
Lascassas storm total is now 3.56 inches.  Several inches of water is flowing across Hoover Road in front of my house for about 100 feet and probably further than that.  The creek behind my house is roaring, but still in its banks.  ::drowning::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: lilapsophobic on May 01, 2010, 01:37:19 PM
What do you guys think the timing is on another round coming through Memphis?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 01:39:06 PM
looks like to be near late afternoon towards evening. just now getting nice breaks in the sky here now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 01, 2010, 01:39:38 PM
Wow is all I've got to say. My garden is completely under water, my drive way is completely under water and the creek beside my house that runs into the river is close to being out of its banks. This has all happened in the heavy rain we've had over the last 2 hours.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 01:40:54 PM
WMC's VTI is at 9.9 on that Union County Storm, FWIW...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 01, 2010, 01:41:14 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
138 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 135 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES WEST OF
  SPRING HILL...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF COLUMBIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
  MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE...
  7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRING HILL BY 150 PM CDT...
  9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRANKLIN BY 200 PM CDT...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Beth on May 01, 2010, 01:42:32 PM
Wow is all I've got to say. My garden is completely under water, my drive way is completely under water and the creek beside my house that runs into the river is close to being out of its banks. This has all happened in the heavy rain we've had over the last 2 hours.

Sounds just like myy area here in Dickson. Every thing under water, including garden. It's the worst I have ever seen it here. I have a cheap rain gage from Tractor Supply and its full at 5inches and running over.
We need a break in the action soon! ::drowning::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Cameron K. on May 01, 2010, 01:44:19 PM
Have a tornado warning for my area.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 01:48:56 PM
PDS on the way soon...


  
Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...MUCH OF AR
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
  
   VALID 011837Z - 011930Z
  
   ...PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 20Z ACROSS MUCH OF AR/NRN LA
   AND NERN TX...
  
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS HEATING CONSIDERABLY SOUTH-EAST OF PRIMARY
   WIND SHIFT FROM ERN TX INTO SRN AR WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES
   HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 80S.  BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD HAS
   GRADUALLY CHANGED CHARACTER OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH APPARENT
   DEEPENING OF THERMALS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BREACHED.
   MODIFIED 18Z SOUNDING FROM LZK...WITH WARM SECTOR
   CONDITIONS...SUPPORTS AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES ON
   THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG.  LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY
   SUPPORTS A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ ACROSS LA AND SRN AR BY
   LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS SHOULD EASILY MATURE
   AND ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED
   AIRMASS.  LATEST THINKING IS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY INITIATE ACROSS
   THE SRN HALF OF AR...SUBSEQUENTLY EXPANDING INTO REGIONS OF NERN TX
   AND NRN LA BY 21-22Z.  ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE
   BOOT HEEL OF MO THIS EVENING.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STRONGLY
   FAVOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES.
]
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 01:49:10 PM
In addition to the aforementioned TOR in Middle TN, the N MS storm now sets its sites on southern McNairy County in lower West TN.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
146 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  EAST CENTRAL TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 146 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF RIPLEY...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CORINTH...
  GLEN...HINKLE...JUMPERTOWN...RIPLEY...THEO AND BIG HILL POND STATE
  PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 01:53:31 PM
Memphis should start clearing from the soutwest over the next hour per ADDS satellite LIT

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=LIT&isingle=multiple&itype=vis
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 01:58:24 PM
Per my parents, major flooding along concord rd in Brentwood. Cars under water at YMCA, water running through houses near edmondson like intersection
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 02:05:48 PM
Quote
05/01 1:33 PM Thunderstorm Wind Damage 4 N Nashville Davidson, TN A COUPLE OF TREES UPROUTED NEAR SKYLINE HOSPITAL OFF OF DICKERSON PIKE.
From: TRAINED SPOTTER
05/01 1:50 PM Flood Franklin Williamson, TN SPOTTER REPORTED WATER 2 FEET DEEP AND A CAR STRANDED AT INTERSTATE 65 AND GALLERIA BLVD...IN THE COOL SPRINGS AREA.From: TRAINED SPOTTER
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on May 01, 2010, 02:08:37 PM
This is a Amazing  rainfall amount
from 3:30 a.m. 1:55 p.m. : and more coming :
Rainfall : 10.65 ” **  ::drowning:: As of  1:55 p.m.
**  New Record Wettest  ::drowning:: :
old record : 1.20 “  In 1978 :
Is also the Wettest Day on Record  ::drowning:: :
old Record 10.50 “ on Sept. 26, 2002 !   ::flag::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Cameron K. on May 01, 2010, 02:13:39 PM
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v321/kidzmomtoo/DSC_0981.jpg)

This was taken over an hour ago. About to head out again and see the difference.  It's at the corner of West Harpeth and Sedberry rd.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 02:15:19 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
213 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 23 MILES WEST OF
  MURFREESBORO...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF FRANKLIN...MOVING EAST AT 35
  MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  MURFREESBORO BY 245 PM CDT...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 02:18:08 PM
There is a tvs marker there now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 02:21:31 PM
There is a tvs marker there now.

May be closet-diving shortly...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 02:22:06 PM
These storms appear to be interacting with the boundary left behind by this mornings storms, and as they do, they seem to be going tornadic.  This could be a very long afternoon.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 02:24:30 PM
May be closet-diving shortly...

Please closet dive safely SC...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 02:24:39 PM
May be closet-diving shortly...

Eagleville and State US Hwy 41 Alt/Highway 99 are about to be under the gun.

Per WSMV per spotter "Large Area of rotation near Mufreesboro"

Rotation marker in Walterhill area as well
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 02:30:44 PM
Please closet dive safely SC...

I'll do the best I can...The storm has slowed down a bit from 35 to 30 MPH
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 02:32:22 PM
Aside from epic floods and storms here in Middle TN (  ::wow:: ), threats continue coming up from the southwest...

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
227 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 227 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
  LEEDY
...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CORINTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  BURNSVILLE...CORINTH...GLEN...IUKA...LEEDY.. .MIDWAY...PINEFLAT...
  OLIVE HILL...PICKWICK DAM...WALNUT GROVE...PICKWICK LANDING STATE
  PARK AND JCOLEMAN STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 02:35:59 PM
TVs marker showing up near Hohenwald-Columbia area


Funnel cloud spotted near Mufreesboro Airport/Lascassas/Hudson Rd
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 02:36:12 PM
18z RUC data EHI... ::wow::


http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=05&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=07&parameter=EHI3&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 02:37:20 PM
I think we may remember this storm system for a while...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 02:42:21 PM
Just got back from driving around the Bellevue area. Flooding is becoming a issue now. I have never seen the roads this bad from run off. I have a lake out in front of my apartment door.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 02:42:30 PM
Quote
0215 PM     TORNADO          7 N BOONEVILLE          34.76N 88.57W
05/01/2010                   ALCORN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS TORNADO ON THE GROUND MOVING EAST.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 02:42:57 PM
wmc 5 thinks the severe weather is over for memphis and west. boy are they in for a little surprise
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 02:44:33 PM
wmc 5 thinks the severe weather is over for memphis and west. boy are they in for a little surprise
Or they could be right.  ::whistling:: ::whistling::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 02:45:25 PM
Still waiting here....slow, slow-moving storm.  Warning may exp. if not re-issued.

there has been a rabbit sitting in the yard for about 20 minutes and hasn't moved. 

Warning exp.  Storm line never reached the entire warned area.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 02:46:00 PM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 011944
SVROHX
TNC041-159-189-012015-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0055.100501T1944Z-100501T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
244 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN SMITH COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN...OR 14 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF LEBANON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GORDONSVILLE BY 305 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8583 3626 8582 3599 8578 3597 8622
      3615 8626 3628 8585
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 260DEG 26KT 3608 8612

$$

21
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 02:46:14 PM
reading the latest meso discussion, they were coming with a pds watch by 20z for most of arkie. what you think kevin?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 02:49:33 PM
i got a good feeling we will be seing mr dave brown and ron childress later tonight ::wow::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 02:50:07 PM
Or they could be right.  ::whistling:: ::whistling::
To make that call this early? True or not, caution should at least be advised. Dont hype, but be forwarned for pete sake.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 02:52:50 PM
To make that call this early? True or not, caution should at least be advised. Dont hype, but be forwarned for pete sake.
LOL...that was more of a joke in a sense...I may not be quite sold yet on destruction in Memphis right now but come on...the severe weather threat isn't even close to over with...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 02:53:04 PM
Wallcloud at Barfield Rd/State Highway 99
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan on May 01, 2010, 02:53:21 PM
Too many evacuations and flooded roads in Wm Co to keep track of.  The W Harpeth River runs in my back yard and I have never seen it this high.  It is out of its banks on both sides.  Amazing.  Prayers for those in harms way, especially the emergency workers.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 02:54:22 PM
two TVS markers near Columbia now,also Springhill area
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 02:55:44 PM
LOL...that was more of a joke in a sense...I may not be quite sold yet on destruction in Memphis right now but come on...the severe weather threat isn't even close to over with...

Yup not quoting you, quoting DB.  ;)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 02:57:49 PM
Wallcloud at Barfield Rd/State Highway 99

Where is that report coming from?


WKRN just reported that the Lavergne Mayor is telling everyone to STAY HOME
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 03:00:10 PM
Where is that report coming from?


WKRN just reported that the Lavergne Mayor is telling everyone to STAY HOME

WSMV said that

Flooding at Hornsprings Rd in Lebanon per WSMV

Water up to car door handle per Carole Robinson in Leipers Fork area
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 03:02:57 PM
WSMV said a spotter sighted a wallcloud

Wonder why WKRN isn't reporting that...That would be two wall clouds in Rutherford co that they reported...Anywho, the Barfield/99 isn't that far from me...It is quiet and dark right now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 01, 2010, 03:05:35 PM
Absolutely incredible flooding going on in Perry Co right now. We haven't had anything close to severe yet. My temp has dropped from 70 to 62 in the last couple of hours and the rain continues to pour down. This will be remembered for a while and its no where near being done with us.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 01, 2010, 03:06:56 PM
Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS/AL...WRN/CNTRL TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...
   
   VALID 011954Z - 012100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124 CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING TORNADOES...WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY ACROSS
   NRN PORTIONS OF WW124 BEYOND WATCH EXPIRATION.  TORNADO WATCH WILL
   BE REISSUED BY 21Z TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.
   
   SEVERAL LONGER LIVED SUPERCELLS...ONE PARTICULARLY TORNADIC STORM
   OVER NERN MS...CONTINUE ALONG SRN FRINGE OF QUASI-STATIONARY MCS.
   MODELS SUGGEST WEAK SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NWD
   ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/CNTRL MS AND AL...ULTIMATELY SUPPRESSING STRONGER
   CONVECTION ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  DESPITE THE WEAK THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER CNTRL MS CURRENT THINKING IS GREATER SEVERE
   RISK WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO TN AND EXTREME NRN MS/AL...THUS A NEW
   TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS LONGER TERM THREAT.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/01/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...M EG...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   35918953 36358577 35798460 34348593 33889092 35918953
   
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ultra mag on May 01, 2010, 03:09:32 PM
 Sun just poped out here.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 03:11:08 PM
WREG reports via one of their weather watchers a 16" storm total in Haywood County, TN
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan on May 01, 2010, 03:13:36 PM
WKRN just showed our location with 5" of rain.  HUH??? My rain gauge is broken, Cameron what do you have?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 01, 2010, 03:14:40 PM
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/colt1_hg.png)

Something tells me that forecast is not going to hold.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 03:15:59 PM
Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TNC087-133-141-012100-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0056.100501T2012Z-100501T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
312 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  WEST CENTRAL OVERTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF GAINESBORO...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  6 MILES NORTH OF ALGOOD BY 325 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 8543 3617 8578 3638 8580 3640 8548
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 262DEG 43KT 3626 8566

$$

21
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 03:20:36 PM
Heads up...

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
318 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 315 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
  NOLENSVILLE...OR 10 MILES EAST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
  MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  LA VERGNE AND SMYRNA BY 325 PM CDT...
  RURAL HILL BY 335 PM CDT...
  BELINDA CITY BY 340 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 03:22:01 PM
I-24 shutdown at Waldron Rd per Rutherford Co. EMA (WKRN)

STAY HOME!!!!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: StormNine on May 01, 2010, 03:22:13 PM
Another storm Near Chapel Hill may get warned soon.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Reneezelle on May 01, 2010, 03:23:56 PM
Hearing the tornado sirens in Donelson. I think Im safe though, its not near me.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 03:24:53 PM
Lavergne Mayor Ronnie Erwin..."We are shutting the city down"  (WKRN)

No one in...No one out...

WOW...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Cameron K. on May 01, 2010, 03:25:41 PM
Well it appears I'm stranded in the home for now. I can't even get out of the driveway road.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 03:25:48 PM
Any Lavergne posters? The mayor is making it sound like its out of control. Need pics.

Servo, did you hear them say "3feet of water covering i24 in lavergne" ? on wkrn
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: David on May 01, 2010, 03:26:08 PM
Yeah I was going to go down there but deciding to stay home because no need to get stuck in a flood
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 01, 2010, 03:27:37 PM
Quote
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
317 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

TNC005-021-037-041-043-081-083-085-101-111-117-119-125-135-147-149-
159-161-165-169-187-189-022015-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FA.W.0001.100501T2017Z-100502T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MAURY TN-HICKMAN TN-PERRY TN-DEKALB TN-WILLIAMSON TN-DICKSON TN-
RUTHERFORD TN-HOUSTON TN-DAVIDSON TN-SMITH TN-CHEATHAM TN-
TROUSDALE TN-MACON TN-MONTGOMERY TN-ROBERTSON TN-SUMNER TN-STEWART TN-
MARSHALL TN-LEWIS TN-BENTON TN-HUMPHREYS TN-WILSON TN-
317 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BENTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAMDEN...
  CHEATHAM COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ASHLAND CITY...
  DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NASHVILLE...
  NORTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DICKSON...
  HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CENTERVILLE...
  HOUSTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ERIN...
  HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WAVERLY...
  LEWIS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOHENWALD...
  MACON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAFAYETTE...
  NORTH CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COLUMBIA...
  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CLARKSVILLE...
  PERRY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LINDEN...
  ROBERTSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD...
  NORTHERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MURFREESBORO...
  SMITH COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CARTHAGE...
  STEWART COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DOVER...
  SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GALLATIN...
  TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HARTSVILLE...
  WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKLIN...
  WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEBANON...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT SUNDAY

* AT 313 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL
  AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES IN THE WARNED AREA.

* THIS HAS CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND
  NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADS AND HOMES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST
FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO
CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING
WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 03:27:46 PM
Yeah I was going to go down there but deciding to stay home because no need to get stuck in a flood

Good...As soon as I posted that, I thought about you.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ccountz on May 01, 2010, 03:28:06 PM
Any Lavergne posters? The mayor is making it sound like its out of control. Need pics.

Servo, did you hear them say "3feet of water covering i24 in lavergne" ? on wkrn

WTVS just reported that all city streets going in and out of Lavergne has been closed.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 03:28:33 PM
*PDS TORNADO WATCH*PDS TORNADO WATCH*PDS TORNADO WATCH*PDS TORNADO WATCH - AR*

Quote
  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   320 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
          NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
          NORTHEAST TEXAS
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
   1000 PM CDT.
  
  ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
   BATESVILLE ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT
   LOUISIANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
  
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...
  
   DISCUSSION...INTENSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO
   CENTRAL AR.  RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...COUPLED
   WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE A
   RISK OF STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.
  
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
  
  
   ...HART

Radar quiet in those areas, but that's probably going to change, if the SPC is right...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 03:30:53 PM
Any Lavergne posters? The mayor is making it sound like its out of control. Need pics.

Servo, did you hear them say "3feet of water covering i24 in lavergne" ? on wkrn

That Mayor sounded like he was getting ready to put tanks on the road or something...  ::wow::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 03:32:47 PM
That Mayor sounded like he was getting ready to put tanks on the road or something...  ::wow::

Yeah, must be serious. I was on the road and thinking about intercepting the earlier warned storm around  840 and 24. Really glad I didn't now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 03:33:18 PM
Carefully watching storm velocities on cell in Northern Tunica Co MS.

EDIT northern Coahoma Co MS
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 01, 2010, 03:33:33 PM
Wow...some sketchy stuff passing over my area at the moment.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 01, 2010, 03:35:54 PM
I am stranded because of water and looks as if I will be for some time. We've got a break in the action right now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 03:36:04 PM
Its is really dark here in Lawrenceburg, how is that storm looking in north alabama.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 03:36:11 PM
Creek behind my house coming out of its banks and growing
(http://i763.photobucket.com/albums/xx277/tspjr/100_1970.jpg)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 03:36:54 PM
LMK's AFD...::wow::

Quote
PRIMARY
CONCERN IS DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WITH AN INCREASINGLY
VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT THAT FCST SOUNDINGS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA
SHOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT. THEY INCLUDE:

MEAN LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG

STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCRSG TO 60-70KT

STRONG/DEEP ASCENT/FORCING AS UPR/SFC WAVES MOVE ALONG A QUASISTNRY
FRONT ACRS SRN IL/SE MO AND THEN FRONT MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION AS
WAVES PASS TO THE NORTH.

CONTD MOIST INFLOW AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES.

THIS DEEPLY MOIST/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT BOTH MULTICELL/SUPERCELL TRAINING STORMS AND
LEWPS THAT WILL COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLD
STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FOR THAT PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY TO THE WEST OF I-65 LATE TNGT.


And SCK will not be as volatile as middle TN or, especially, west TN.

Not to mention that the SPC has middle TN (I-65 eastward) in a 30% hatched risk for tomorrow and are thinking going moderate for us.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 03:37:34 PM
Its is really dark here in Lawrenceburg, how is that storm looking in north alabama.

several tvs markers northeast of lewisburg and northwest of shelbyville
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 03:38:34 PM
Sounds like Williamson County over to Lavergne Smyrna is a place to not go tonight.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 03:40:10 PM
 

several tvs markers northeast of lewisburg and northwest of shelbyville

Yeah...too close for comfort....
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 03:40:29 PM
Im talking about Lawrenceburg, how is that storm looking.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 03:41:18 PM
I can concur with the reports of water over I-24.  We just got back from BNA and just east of Exit 64, there is about 2-3' of water covering the interstate.  
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 03:42:20 PM
our watch expires at 4. ne body se it getting exteneded and possible a pds also. i havent read the meso dis.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXHD on May 01, 2010, 03:42:47 PM
This is awesome. Our road is almost shut down. The creek in front of my parents house is over topping the bridges. An parking lot in Green Hills behind the retirement home has cars under water. Hope everyone is ok.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 03:43:19 PM
here's cool springs. from twitter


http://twitpic.com/1k20lh
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Uncle Nasty on May 01, 2010, 03:43:32 PM
Does anyone here use "Zoom Radar"? Local ABC has it online. It gives rainfall rates etc. Pretty good to track this mess. Just move the map around with mouse. You can double click any area to get current precip rates, wind, etc. Pretty good.


http://www.newschannel9.com/sections/weather/zoomradar/ (http://www.newschannel9.com/sections/weather/zoomradar/)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 03:43:42 PM
Im talking about Lawrenceburg, how is that storm looking.

Rough, confirmed tornado with it earlier...haven't heard the latest though. A solid shield of lightning strikes on that cell.

And TNstorm, I think a new watch will be issued...at least that is what the MCD said or the old one would be extended.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 03:45:14 PM
There should be a PDS issued here.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 03:45:50 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 338 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTH OF
  COLLINWOOD...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF WAYNESBORO...AND MOVING EAST AT
  30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  9 MILES SOUTH OF COLLINWOOD BY 350 PM CDT...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 03:46:18 PM
wouldnt surprise me  adam later
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 03:47:07 PM
Is there going to be more stuff develop after this?!?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 03:47:30 PM
I'm surprised OHX went Severe T'storm with that one...less than 10 minutes ago a tornado was reported in Lauderdale County, AL.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 03:47:47 PM
here is last hour rainfall
(http://i763.photobucket.com/albums/xx277/tspjr/rainfall1.jpg)

TOR watch extended until 6 for much of mid tn

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 03:48:24 PM
Is there going to be more stuff develop after this?!?

Yep, that is why the PDS watch was issued for LA, MS, and AR...this is just the early stuff that wasn't expected to be that rough, the "bigger" threat is tonight into Sunday morning.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 03:48:52 PM
MEG just cancelled the TOR watch for Memphis and areas S/E...while extending it until 6 PM For areas N/E of Memphis. Seems as if there will not be a new watch...at least locally...

Surprised they cancelled the watch for Memphis...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 03:49:13 PM
Quote
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
338 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

ALC077-012100-
/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-100501T2100Z/
LAUDERDALE AL-
338 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY...

AT 337 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THREET...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
UNDERWOOD-PETERSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ZIP
CITY AND GREEN HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 03:49:58 PM
WSMV said that there was a reported funnel cloud in southern Lawrence COunty! ::faint::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 03:51:26 PM
Downtown feels so deserted.  The alarms went off here, though the warning was for our south.

We're boxed in.  The only place we can hop onto the freeway is 65 north.

Please everyone, please, stay safe out there.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 03:51:47 PM
yeah extended it just 2 more ours is pretty conservative.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 03:52:36 PM
Does anyone know if that tornado is still on the ground?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 03:53:04 PM
WSMV said that there was a reported funnel cloud in southern Lawrence COunty! ::faint::

Not surprised, 10 minutes ago a tornado was down...and the radar image is still impressive, why OHX went only Severe T'storm is an chin scratcher. ::pondering::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 03:53:13 PM
Just heard via intercept on the EMA radio from HUN that the SPC/NWS in HUN are going to allow the tornado watch to expire at 4pm.  Not sure if this includes the TN counties or not, but possibly so.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 03:53:30 PM
Does anyone know if that tornado is still on the ground?

Funnel Cloud around Iron City/Loretto
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 03:54:22 PM
after reading the latest afd from meg. bound to be another watch later.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 03:54:33 PM
Im about to go to the basement, eveyone be safe.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 03:55:28 PM
Im about to go to the basement, eveyone be safe.

Keep safe, let us know whats going on if you can safely
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 03:56:32 PM
This looks to be the last round for the Metro Memphis for a few hours. Just amazing to watch it keep coming and coming. This last wave will add insult to injury in the hardest hit areas flooding wise. Much of Shelby, even southern areas are now getting close to 4-6 inches, not to mention northern areas of the metro that are already between 10-12 inches.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 03:57:50 PM
I am right now i have my labtop unplugged, it doesnt look that bad right now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 04:01:42 PM
Getting darker, is there still good rotation on the storm.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 04:02:38 PM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
352 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
TOR WATCH #124 EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN SOUTH AND EAST
MID TN...WITH NOT SPC WATCH REPLACEMENT AT THIS TIME.

TOR WATCH #124 CANCELLED FOR BENTON...CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...DICKSON...
AND HUMPHREYS COUNTIES OF MID TN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REPLACED WITH AREAL FLOOD WARNING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WARNING EXTENDS SOUTH INTO DAVIDSON...
WILLIAMSON...MAURY...LEWIS..AND PERRY COUNTIES OF MID TN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTH AND EAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. AREA FLOOD WARNING NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 04:05:24 PM
Getting darker, is there still good rotation on the storm.

I don't see any TVS markers right now on GRLevel3
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 04:06:23 PM
It still doesnt look that good at all.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 04:06:29 PM
I don't see any TVS markers right now on GRLevel3

Davis Nolan, "I trust the NWS on this call." ::applause::

Dave Brown would be ripping them a new one right now...bravo Davis!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 04:07:10 PM
Everyone stay home please. Just went out to survey and Water in West Meade is over the roads covering cars. I have never seen anything like this in my lifetime. Hwy 100 and Hwy 70 all have major issues. Richland Creeks is over its banks all along West Meade.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 04:10:09 PM
I don't see any TVS markers right now on GRLevel3

TVS south of Shelbyville.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 04:11:36 PM
TVS south of Shelbyville.

yep, I see that one now
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 04:12:00 PM
yep, I see that one now

...and now there's one close to Woodbury.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 04:12:55 PM
That storm is looking really ugly.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 04:15:12 PM
That storm is looking really ugly.

I expect OHX to go Tornado Warned on that cell, rotation has held together and is also increasing, IMO.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 04:16:26 PM
Please pray for the kids that are lost in Dickson after "playing in the water" with a canoe. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 04:16:52 PM
Power is out at inter section of 43 and 64.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan on May 01, 2010, 04:17:26 PM
Fatality in Williamson Co.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 04:17:34 PM
Please pray for the kids that are lost in Dickson after "playing in the water" with a canoe. 

That just sickens me...   :'(
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 04:17:56 PM
TOR WRN in Lawrence Co.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 04:18:18 PM
Quote
WFUS54 KOHX 012116
TOROHX
TNC099-012145-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0023.100501T2116Z-100501T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
416 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 414 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LORETTO...
  OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAWRENCEBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF LAWRENCEBURG BY 430 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3503 8757 3515 8760 3516 8758 3517 8759
      3518 8757 3522 8758 3534 8723 3531 8723
      3531 8724 3530 8723 3508 8723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 261DEG 32KT 3514 8748

$$

21




Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 04:18:22 PM
That just sickens me...   :'(
Me too.  I hope that they're okay.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan on May 01, 2010, 04:20:02 PM
(http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash1/hs508.ash1/30030_1400292962401_1084606175_31344388_2178562_n.jpg)

the tree line in the back is the river
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 04:21:59 PM
I'm somewhat seeing this playing out like last night so far...strong-violent tornadoes with associated supercells across the Little Rock WFO...but by the time it reaches most of the MEG area it may be later evening and more evolving into linear segments...the NAM suggested this last night as well and still is suggesting it per latest runs...along with the RUC. Probably just shifted a little bit S and E. Seems a Corning AR to Clarksdale MS Line West could be a sharp cutoff to that potential...with it maximized in the Little Rock-Pine Bluff-Monticello Corridor.

So perhaps Memphis will finally clear out...but the timing is the saving grace for the city rather than the continued convection...just will have to see how far out convection can develop...those model runs above seem intent that convection will be limited to one "zone" or "area" and not well out ahead of the system in multiple areas of the warm sector.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 04:22:19 PM
Got a report that a family in Wilson County is stuck in their vehicle and water is filling up...:-\

I was at Sumner's EOC this afternoon with Matt Brawner and they had to send a crew to Memphis due to the flooding, they needed their boats for rescues and such...widespread flooding event.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan on May 01, 2010, 04:24:43 PM
(http://hphotos-snc3.fbcdn.net/hs548.snc3/30030_1400292682394_1084606175_31344382_7196374_n.jpg)

that was a huge cornfield on the other side of the brush

the river is more than 15 feet higher that normal
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 04:24:51 PM
Thank the Lord!  The kids they were looking for are found and okay!!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 04:24:59 PM
Kids are found safe in Dickson...WHEW! :)

Glad they aren't my kids, they wouldn't be able to sit down for the next month!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 04:25:47 PM
Im in basement, power almost went out.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Willywee on May 01, 2010, 04:26:26 PM
Will there be a break after the storms in Larewnceburg make its way through Nashville?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 04:26:49 PM
Im in basement, power almost went out.

NOAA's radar site is pretty intense on the rotation in this cell, stay safe Adam.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 01, 2010, 04:27:21 PM
My prayers are with everyone that is effected by this. I hope that the kids in Dickson are ok.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 04:27:43 PM
Man that was close lots of thunder, i hope there is not one on the ground.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Tom23 on May 01, 2010, 04:28:11 PM
I'm praying for all of you all... hopefully East TN won't get that action as much, but hats a huge  ::fingerscrossed::. Guys, this is the FIRST time I've ever wished a weather event not to touch my area, and that is a fact. Prayin for ALL of you.

Kids found unharmed and safe.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 01, 2010, 04:28:26 PM
That just sickens me...   :'(
They were found safe - walked out from the woods and are ok
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 04:29:27 PM
They were found safe - walked out from the woods and are ok

Just heard that...Thank the Lord.  Bet they don't ever do that again.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 04:29:50 PM
Well...that theory could be shot to pieces pretty quick if that development in Woodruff/Monroe Counties continues...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 01, 2010, 04:30:56 PM
check out the flooding across I-40 near MM 180 - WOW!!! ::faint::

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/news-2-storm-chaser
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 04:32:13 PM
Low-level shear increasing in NE Desoto County...worth watching despite not being in a TOR watch at this point...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 04:34:30 PM
Yeah...Desoto MS may need a TOR...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 04:34:57 PM
were is woodruff county at kevin> is that centrel arkie?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 04:35:11 PM
Yeah...Desoto MS may need a TOR...

Is that the cell NE of Hernando? If so, I am watching that one too...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 04:35:35 PM
Coolsprings area...both North and Southbound lanes I-65 lanes are BOTH turned southbound now...(they do this alot in Florida during hurricane evacuations)..

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Tom23 on May 01, 2010, 04:36:04 PM
were is woodruff county at kevin> is that centrel arkie?

East/Central Arkansas.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 04:36:40 PM
Is there someone in that car on WKRN's feed?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 04:37:57 PM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 012136
SVROHX
TNC041-177-185-012200-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0058.100501T2136Z-100501T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
436 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN WHITE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 432 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
  SMITHVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DOYLE BY 450 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 8546 3582 8546 3581 8579 3599 8585
      3603 8564 3602 8561 3604 8560 3605 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 264DEG 37KT 3588 8573

$$

21




Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 04:39:03 PM
thanx  tom, what i thought
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Tom23 on May 01, 2010, 04:40:14 PM
No problems. Well, one good thing for my area is the timing... Hopefully since its been cloudy all day (most of it), the instability will be less than W/M TN, and a piece of the storm will be overnight.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 04:40:50 PM
Yeah...Desoto MS may need a TOR...
  you got it...

Quote
WFUS54 KMEG 012135
TORMEG
MSC033-093-TNC047-012215-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0054.100501T2135Z-100501T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
435 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 435 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LEWISBURG...OR 6 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF OLIVE BRANCH...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS
  OF EAST CENTRAL DESOTO...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHWESTERN
  FAYETTE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 8944 3483 8943 3478 8987 3490 8997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 256DEG 29KT 3489 8986

$$
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 01, 2010, 04:41:17 PM
Is there someone in that car on WKRN's feed?
They arent sure just yet
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 04:41:57 PM
Man its raining hard, we dodge a bullit in Lawrenceburg, i dont know about Leoma. My yard is a river.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 04:42:17 PM
Structural damage reported in Lawrence County, very strong rotation showing up...

I-24 at Bell Road is flooding, yet some people think they can get through...:-\

Cars are hitting each other...oh dang.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Tom23 on May 01, 2010, 04:43:24 PM
I feel so bad for these people who are going through this stuff.... I wish I could help..
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 04:46:06 PM
I-24 at bell road cars floating people jumping the median
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 04:46:11 PM
Kinda rare to see a TOR warning outside of any type of watch box.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 04:46:54 PM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 012144
SVROHX
TNC055-012215-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0060.100501T2144Z-100501T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
444 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF PULASKI...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LYNNVILLE BY 455 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 8696 3517 8692 3518 8718 3537 8719
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 252DEG 40KT 3527 8713

$$

21




Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 04:47:19 PM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 012141
SVROHX
TNC031-061-175-177-012215-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0059.100501T2141Z-100501T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
441 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WARREN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN COFFEE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 437 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCMINNVILLE TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  MANCHESTER...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
  MCMINNVILLE TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN...
  RURAL NORTHWESTERN GRUNDY COUNTY AT 500 PM CDT
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE COUNTY AT 500 PM CDT
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY AT 500 PM CDT
  RURAL SOUTHWESTERN GRUNDY COUNTY AT 510 PM CDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8597 3535 8604 3536 8616 3535 8618
      3535 8620 3580 8577 3581 8562 3580 8560
      3580 8553 3581 8551 3581 8549 3529 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 300DEG 29KT 3576 8568 3533 8616

$$

21




Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 04:47:44 PM
Quote
WFUS54 KOHX 012147
TOROHX
TNC031-012215-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0024.100501T2147Z-100501T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
447 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL COFFEE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 446 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
  MANCHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
  INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8595 3541 8588 3539 8609 3548 8613
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 252DEG 40KT 3546 8601

$$

21




362
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 04:48:12 PM
yeah but this air is getting juiced up in the atmosphere pretty good. there will be another watch out soon. sure u of that
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 04:48:51 PM
I-24 at bell road cars floating people jumping the median

That stuff happening there is incredible....People trying to help people get out of their cars.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 01, 2010, 04:48:57 PM
I-24 at bell road cars floating people jumping the median
http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/cctv/cctvnash/cam87.asp
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 04:49:07 PM
nader warning for se shelby county
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 04:49:25 PM
The live feed of i24 on news two... kinda disturbing. People may be dying and we're all watching.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 04:49:41 PM
More rain developing behind this line.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 04:51:32 PM
just....wow.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Tom23 on May 01, 2010, 04:51:43 PM
The live feed of i24 on news two... kinda disturbing. People may be dying and we're all watching.

I know it Jmundie, I hope the best for all of these families losing property/family members lives tonight..... Oh boy, how this stuff can be cool and also be the most dangerous thing around.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 04:53:06 PM
And that trucker just kept right on truckin.  
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 04:53:42 PM
The live feed of i24 on news two... kinda disturbing. People may be dying and we're all watching.

Those barriers are about to breach....Disturbing...sad....
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 04:53:59 PM
Quote
WFUS54 KOHX 012152
TOROHX
TNC055-099-117-012215-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0025.100501T2152Z-100501T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
452 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 446 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES WEST OF
  PULASKI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  LYNNVILLE BY 510 PM CDT...
  CORNERSVILLE BY 515 PM CDT...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HIGH WIND AND WIDESPREAD
DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 8717 3524 8729 3543 8697 3543 8696
      3544 8695 3553 8680 3534 8665
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 237DEG 35KT 3522 8714

$$

ROSE




Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on May 01, 2010, 04:54:13 PM
Kevin,its fairly partly sunny in my area of southaven and getting unstable again.Im going to ask a serious question and be totally honest?Will this event be anything close to feb5 2008 or jan 1999 later on tonight and early sunday?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 04:54:37 PM
My neighbors house i almost surrounded by water.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 04:55:04 PM
WTH....I thought we were supposed to be in the clear for a while....there's not even a watch out.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jilly on May 01, 2010, 04:56:00 PM
The live feed of i24 on news two... kinda disturbing. People may be dying and we're all watching.

Saying some prayers. Law, never saw anything like that down here.

And this is near my exit:
(http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/686/i40.jpg)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 01, 2010, 04:56:52 PM
I-24 at bell road cars floating people jumping the median
My jaw dropped watching this on Ch17 coverage as I flipped through local channels trying to see what everyone is saying. I have never witnessed anything like this in my life. I've seen flooding at my house like this before but I've never seen water come up this fast and this violently. Its unreal now but I fear that it is only going to get worse.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 04:58:51 PM
My jaw dropped watching this on Ch17 coverage as I flipped through local channels trying to see what everyone is saying. I have never witnessed anything like this in my life. I've seen flooding at my house like this before but I've never seen water come up this fast and this violently. Its unreal now but I fear that it is only going to get worse.

I hope that median does not breach that would be horrible
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 04:58:57 PM
My jaw dropped watching this on Ch17 coverage as I flipped through local channels trying to see what everyone is saying. I have never witnessed anything like this in my life. I've seen flooding at my house like this before but I've never seen water come up this fast and this violently. Its unreal now but I fear that it is only going to get worse.

Reminds me of watching Katrina coverage and the Lake Pontchartrain breaching...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 05:00:27 PM
This is where Putnam County is sending a rescue team as is Sumner I believe...

Quote
Levee breach on Big Creek is flooding Millington. 5' of water on NAS base w/ 200-300 homes flooded and 200 water rescues
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Tom23 on May 01, 2010, 05:01:00 PM
Any chance we get under a State of Emergency for our state??
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 05:02:19 PM
Quote
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR 
SOUTHERN TIPTON...NORTHWESTERN HARDEMAN...SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD... 
SHELBY...FAYETTE...NORTHERN MARSHALL...NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND EAST 
CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTIES... 
   
..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY 
 
...DANGEROUS FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF   
SHELBY COUNTY DUE TO A LEVEE BREAK ALONG THE BIG CREEK... 
 
A LEVEE HAS BREACHED ALONG BIG CREEK AND CONTINUES TO FLOOD AREAS   
FROM SHELBY FORREST TO THE FAYETTE COUNTY LINE ACROSS NORTHERN   
PORTIONS OF SHELBY COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...FIVE FEET OF WATER HAS   
FLOODED THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN MILLINGTON AND WATER CONTINUES TO   
RISE QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF MILLINGTON. LIVE WATER   
RESCUES CONTINUE AND UPWARDS OF 200 PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY BEEN   
RESCUED. IN ADDITION...200 TO 300 HOMES HAVE BEEN FLOODED IN BASE   
HOUSING AT NAVAL SUPPORT ACTIVITY IN MILLINGTON. THIS IS AN   
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF WATER BEGINS TO QUICKLY RISE IN   
YOUR LOCATION...MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO HIGHER GROUND. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: InMemphis on May 01, 2010, 05:04:24 PM
I do not ever recall a day where so many tornado warnings have been issued for Shelby County.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 05:06:11 PM
nice hook echo showing up in coillerville
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 05:09:45 PM
Quote
WFUS54 KHUN 012208
TORHUN
TNC103-127-012230-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0023.100501T2208Z-100501T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
508 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN MOORE COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
  PETERSBURG...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING
  EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
  BELLEVILLE.
  BOONEVILLE.
  LYNCHBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8626 3526 8628 3516 8669 3528 8673
      3532 8667 3535 8660 3539 8659 3537 8648
      3534 8644 3534 8642 3536 8640 3536 8637
      3538 8635 3540 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 252DEG 33KT 3528 8662

$$







Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 05:11:54 PM
people are swimming down the creek behind my house, not smart
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 05:13:19 PM
Quote
FUS54 KOHX 012211
TOROHX
TNC055-117-012245-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0026.100501T2211Z-100501T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
511 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  CENTRAL GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 508 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF LEWISBURG...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF PULASKI...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEWISBURG BY 530 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 8709 3551 8670 3545 8665 3543 8665
      3540 8662 3538 8662 3537 8659 3534 8660
      3532 8664 3532 8667 3527 8673 3527 8681
      3522 8681 3514 8697
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 239DEG 35KT 3527 8693

$$

ROSE




Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Beth on May 01, 2010, 05:14:02 PM
That is so scary watching those cars just start floating away the people climbing out of them. Praying for every one's safety today. I have never seen any thing like this in Nashville. ::wow::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 05:14:40 PM
From twitter:

Walmart on Haring Place flooding
(http://web4.twitpic.com/img/94193380-a2142a372007c11fa8b890de9cac83a2.4bdca7aa-full.jpg)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 05:16:40 PM
Major situation developing. Highway 70 in Arlington from 385 to past Airline is under 1-2 feet of water. Looks like the loosahatchie has overflowed. I have never seen this in my lifetime.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on May 01, 2010, 05:17:05 PM
Kevin,does that mean yes,no, or unsure at this moment about my comment earlier?its 87 in pinebluff and 88 in monticello ar with dewpoints in the mid 70's.i read over at eastern weather forums that once the cap breaks,all **** will break loose.They said there is some 700mb cap still left inhibiting development
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 05:19:46 PM
yeah kevin whats up, that convection in northern la. will break the cap later. stay safe down in desoto bud
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 05:20:20 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0448.gif)

Quote
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS/AL AND SRN TN
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
  
   VALID 012204Z - 012300Z
  
   ROTATING STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NRN MS/AL AND
   SRN TN. ALTHOUGH A LOCAL TIME EXTENSION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
   WW124...THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE NEW WW.
  
   UPPER WAVES NOTED ON WV IMAGERY IN CNTRL MS AND OVER MUCH OF TN THAT
   INFLUENCED CURRENT CONVECTION ARE QUICKLY MOVING NEWD...WITH
   SUBSIDENCE IN THEIR WAKE. THIS MAY LIMIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL
   CONTINUE TO FEED INTO CURRENT CONVECTION...WITH AREA VAD WIND
   PROFILE DATA INDICATING AMPLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY /0-3 KM 400-550
   M2/S2 / TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD
   TORNADOES. AS UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY PROGRESSES EWD...CONVECTION MAY
   BECOME MORE INTENSE AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...AND
   AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. CHARACTER OF
   CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WITH A WW BECOMING LIKELY
   SHOULD MORE ORGANIZATION BE NOTED.
  
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 05:21:00 PM
Kevin,does that mean yes,no, or unsure at this moment about my comment earlier?its 87 in pinebluff and 88 in monticello ar with dewpoints in the mid 70's.i read over at eastern weather forums that once the cap breaks,all **** will break loose.They said there is some 700mb cap still left inhibiting development

3500 CAPE over Central AR, LI's in the -7 to -9 range, BRN shear approaching 70, and add those DP numbers...it is going to be wild is all I can say.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 05:21:46 PM
Quote
ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
519 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL COFFEE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 518 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 80 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHELBYVILLE...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANCHESTER BY 540 PM CDT...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 05:23:14 PM
Flood emergency for Millington...looks like a very serious situation developing here due to a levee break...

Quote
501 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY...SOUTHERN TIPTON
  COUNTY...AND NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY. DANGEROUS FLOODING WILL
  CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA DUE TO A LEVEE BREAK ALONG THE BIG
  CREEK.

* AT 501 PM CDT...SHELBY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
  REPORTED THAT A LEVEE HAS BREACHED ALONG BIG CREEK AND CONTINUES
  TO FLOOD AREAS FROM SHELBY FORREST TO THE FAYETTE COUNTY LINE AND
  WILL CONTINUE TO FLOOD THE WARNED LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...FIVE
  FEET OF WATER HAS FLOODED THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN MILLINGTON AND
  WATER CONTINUES TO RISE QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF
  MILLINGTON. LIVE WATER RESCUES CONTINUE AND UPWARDS OF 200 PEOPLE
  HAVE ALREADY BEEN RESCUED. IN ADDITION...200 TO 300 HOMES HAVE
  BEEN FLOODED IN BASE HOUSING AT NAVAL SUPPORT ACTIVITY IN
  MILLINGTON. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF WATER
  BEGINS TO QUICKLY RISE IN YOUR LOCATION...MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO
  HIGHER GROUND.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: JHart on May 01, 2010, 05:24:23 PM
Storm total in Lascassas is now 5.64 inches.  There is serious flooding going on out here.  Hoover Road is nearly impassable and Jarman Branch is well out of its banks.  Water is surrounding some outbuildings in the neighborhoods behind us.  If this keeps up, houses will be next.  At least the rain has let up... for now.  ::wow::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on May 01, 2010, 05:25:47 PM
WKUWEATHER,in all seriousness,are those parameters back in central and eastern arkansas almost perfect for a major tornado outbreak over there that we havent seen in a long, long time,and if not whats missing?Im trying to find some comparisons,if any, to past bigtime tornado outbreaks the way the pattern and atmospheric conditions being met for later tonight and early sunday. ::pondering::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 05:26:30 PM
looks like the diescrete cells are starting to flare in se arkie and north ms.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 05:28:13 PM
just hand on and buckle up kevin my man donw in desoto, things fixing to fire
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan on May 01, 2010, 05:28:25 PM
Harpeth River over Highway 96W.

I lived out that way for over 20 years and never saw that.

Many, many water rescues in progress in Wm Co. People trapped in homes (one in attic now) and one man in trapped in tree.  

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 05:28:55 PM
WKUWEATHER,in all seriousness,are those parameters back in central and eastern arkansas almost perfect for a major tornado outbreak over there that we havent seen in a long, long time,and if not whats missing?Im trying to find some comparisons,if any, to past bigtime tornado outbreaks the way the pattern and atmospheric conditions being met for later tonight and early sunday. ::pondering::

It has been a while. The Yazoo City tornado formed in atmospheric conditions much less than this, we will see an EF-5 tornado tonight somewhere. Bold statement, but I fully believe we will.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on May 01, 2010, 05:29:31 PM
Its warming up and real sunny now at my house.VERYYYYYY unstable :-\Its almost as unstable as feb 5 2008 and may 2003 to be quite honest
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 05:30:22 PM
you are getting a nice dry punch surge your way
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 05:32:47 PM
We will see a tornado warning come out for southern Bedford at any time, strong rotation...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 01, 2010, 05:33:46 PM
I am just completely baffled as I watch local news coverage....WHY are these people continuing to drive through these flooded areas in the first place?  My apologies for coming across as insensitive, but where's the basic common sense?     ::shrug:: ::shrug::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on May 01, 2010, 05:34:03 PM
WKUWEATHER,i dont think the yazoocity tornado had near the cape  or helicity values like u mentioned earlier.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 05:35:24 PM
Quote
     WOUS64 KWNS 012232
     WOU6
     
     BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 126
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     635 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2010
     
     TORNADO WATCH 126 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE
      FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     
     TNC001-003-007-009-011-031-035-051-061-065-093-103-105-107-115-
     121-123-127-129-139-143-145-153-175-177-020300-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0126.100501T2235Z-100502T0300Z/
     
     TN
     .    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ANDERSON             BEDFORD             BLEDSOE             
     BLOUNT               BRADLEY             COFFEE             
     CUMBERLAND           FRANKLIN            GRUNDY             
     HAMILTON             KNOX                LINCOLN             
     LOUDON               MARION              MCMINN             
     MEIGS                MONROE              MOORE               
     MORGAN               POLK                RHEA               
     ROANE                SEQUATCHIE          VAN BUREN           
     WARREN               
     
     
     ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 05:35:30 PM
I am just completely baffled as I watch local news coverage....WHY are these people continuing to drive through these flooded areas in the first place?????????  My apologies for coming across as insensitive, but where's the basic common sense????     ::shrug:: ::shrug::

Not insensitive at all, why they tried after seeing numerous people fail is shocking to me...???
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 05:35:44 PM
I am just completely baffled as I watch local news coverage....WHY are these people continuing to drive through these flooded areas in the first place?  My apologies for coming across as insensitive, but where's the basic common sense?     ::shrug:: ::shrug::

there is none, they just want to get through at all cost
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 05:38:21 PM
a mobile home that was being transported just got destroyed floating down I-24
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 05:38:38 PM
Oh wow.  Did anyone else watch that mobile home fall apart on I-24?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 05:39:12 PM
a mobile home that was being transported just got destroyed floating down I-24

 ::wow:: ::wow:: I am praying that no one is in these vehicle...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Bridget on May 01, 2010, 05:39:32 PM
Oh wow.  Did anyone else watch that mobile home fall apart on I-24?

Yes!  My son and I watched it just completely break apart.  My goodness, this is just horrible.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Beth on May 01, 2010, 05:39:51 PM
Oh wow.  Did anyone else watch that mobile home fall apart on I-24?
OMG,,yes!!!  So unreal!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 01, 2010, 05:39:57 PM
Oh wow.  Did anyone else watch that mobile home fall apart on I-24?
yeah [SHOCKED!]
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: angrypug on May 01, 2010, 05:40:14 PM
that was absolutly insane.  amazing.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan in Macon on May 01, 2010, 05:40:23 PM
Red Boiling Springs is having problems with flooding now and EMS may have to evacuate a nursing home.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 01, 2010, 05:41:20 PM
Oh wow.  Did anyone else watch that mobile home fall apart on I-24?

I can't believe that I just saw that happen.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 05:42:25 PM
That was a building from Lighthouse Christian School...incredible...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ultra mag on May 01, 2010, 05:43:13 PM
 So in everyones best guess what does it look like for west tn this evening ?North of i 40.Will more discrete cells pop in ark. and move through here giving us a tornado threat?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 05:43:48 PM
Continuing to look like it may be late evening if not overnight before developing convection in Central/South AR moves closer to this area. Big question will be storm mode...will it be like last night and transition to just wind/flooding rain...or will they remain discrete with significant instability established. Starting to feel more confident any widespread severe/tornado threat will stay well west for quite a while...though isolated storms are possible.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ultra mag on May 01, 2010, 05:45:29 PM
 Thanks
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 05:46:17 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0126_radar.gif)
Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   635 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2010
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          SOUTHERN MIDDLE AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY EVENING FROM 635 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.
  
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
   CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 65 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CROSSVILLE
   TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
  
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
   WATCH NUMBER 124. WATCH NUMBER 124 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
   635 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 125...
  
   DISCUSSION...REMNANT MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MIDDLE
   AND SERN TN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FED BY A MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE S
   ATOP AND SLOW-MOVING FRONT NEAR THE SRN TN BORDER.  THOUGH THE
   CONVECTION IN THE NRN PART OF THE WATCH MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED...THE STORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT/OUTFLOW ACROSS SRN
   TN WILL BE ROOTED AT OR VERY NEAR THE SURFACE.  GIVEN THE MOISTURE
   INFLUX FROM THE S AND STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN LOCAL VWP/S...A
   FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A TORNADO
   OR TWO WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL SHOULD BE THE MORE COMMON THREATS IN THE WATCH AREA THIS
   EVENING.
  
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Aileron88 on May 01, 2010, 05:47:27 PM
Kevin how does nashville look tommorow?...im worried.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: angrypug on May 01, 2010, 05:48:44 PM
Looks like things starting to pop in arkansas.  Most seem to be moving almost due north with slight eastward motion.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 05:49:05 PM
Kevin how does nashville look tommorow?...im worried.
Sorry but I haven't even looked at anything tomorrow.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 05:49:37 PM
Is Nashville about to get dry slotted?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 05:53:44 PM
everyone got tonight on their minds now. but yes middle will get some action tomorrow. dont know the instinct of it yet
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ccountz on May 01, 2010, 05:55:42 PM
Kevin how does nashville look tommorow?...im worried.

I think we probably need to worry a bit more about this evening...


TNC037-020500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
NASHVILLE METRO OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...

DUE TO MAJOR FLOODING THE NASHVILLE METRO OFFICE OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ADVISES DAVIDSON COUNTY CITIZENS TO PLEASE STAY OFF
ROADS IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. MANY ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE OR BECOMING
IMPASSABLE. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

$$

VANNOZZI

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 01, 2010, 05:55:55 PM
I hope everyone is staying safe up there. Hasn't rained a drop in hotlanta today. Anybody wanna report their rainfall totals? Maybe start a thread for them?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 01, 2010, 05:56:04 PM
Seems the SPC went a little far with the outlooks today?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 05:58:08 PM
cell in the eldorado arkansas has gotten my attention.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ccountz on May 01, 2010, 05:59:01 PM
I hope everyone is staying safe up there. Hasn't rained a drop in hotlanta today. Anybody wanna report their rainfall totals? Maybe start a thread for them?


At 8.1 inches in my gauge, I've seen more in a 24 hour period, but never with the destructive power. I live about 2 miles from Mill Creek in Antioch and the level is at 23 feet and rising....just amazing.  
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan on May 01, 2010, 05:59:39 PM
hmmmm, if you would just kind of open your umbrella and say "Tut Tut, It Looks Like Rain"

(http://bp0.blogger.com/_lHPPhOSC0bk/SFtb8RouRTI/AAAAAAAACOk/TMNbKJnaDw8/s400/winnie_the_pooh_umbrella.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 06:00:56 PM
Hey Susan, have you heard anymore about Red Boiling Springs?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan on May 01, 2010, 06:02:51 PM
nope

I haven't heard anything about there today
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 06:05:47 PM
nope

I haven't heard anything about there today

Sorry, I meant Susan in Macon County...::doh::. My apologizes!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Beth on May 01, 2010, 06:06:45 PM
I can't believe I am seeing that truck going down 24 under Briley,,how brave, or stupid? And there goes a Van going through it.  Just Amazed.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 06:07:16 PM
Quote
05/01 5:28 PM Flood Smyrna Rutherford, TN BRIDGE ON ONE MILE LANE THAT CROSSES STEWARTS CREEK IS UNDER WATER.
From: PUBLIC
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan in Macon on May 01, 2010, 06:11:31 PM
Hey Susan, have you heard anymore about Red Boiling Springs?

Hubby just called to check in and I think they just made a decision to evacute the nursing home.  He said there is water all over the roads in Lafayette too.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 06:13:03 PM
Hubby just called to check in and I think they just made a decision to evacute the nursing home.  He said there is water all over the roads in Lafayette too.

Ok, thanks Susan!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 06:14:26 PM
Areal Flood Warnings for All of Middle TN...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 06:15:43 PM
Quote
A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN SHELBY   
COUNTY...SOUTHERN TIPTON COUNTY...AND NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY.   
DANGEROUS FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA DUE TO A   
LEVEE BREAK ALONG THE BIG CREEK. 
 
SHELBY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT A LEVEE HAS   
BREACHED ALONG BIG CREEK AND CONTINUES TO FLOOD AREAS FROM SHELBY   
FORREST TO THE FAYETTE COUNTY LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLOOD THE   
WARNED LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...FIVE FEET OF WATER HAS FLOODED THE   
NAVAL AIR STATION IN MILLINGTON AND WATER CONTINUES TO RISE QUICKLY   
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF MILLINGTON. LIVE WATER RESCUES   
CONTINUE AND UPWARDS OF 200 PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY BEEN RESCUED. IN   
ADDITION...200 TO 300 HOMES HAVE BEEN FLOODED IN BASE HOUSING AT   
NAVAL SUPPORT ACTIVITY IN MILLINGTON. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS   
SITUATION. IF WATER BEGINS TO QUICKLY RISE IN YOUR LOCATION...MOVE   
IMMEDIATELY TO HIGHER GROUND. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 01, 2010, 06:19:00 PM


Wow, with more to come.

Also, though the SBCAPEs are somewhat low now (about 500 J/kg), that will change as the disturbance approaches and destablizes us from above, right?

EDIT: My Internet has been out, and I'm posting this from a work computer, where I can go on the Internet.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 06:19:15 PM
Reports that every road in Millington is underwater...only access to the city is by boat...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 01, 2010, 06:20:42 PM
Reports that every road in Millington is underwater...only access to the city is by boat...

Wow.  I work not too far from where Whitten and Raleigh-Lagrange meet, so that isn't too far from here.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 06:22:42 PM
Just for posterity, an Areal Flood Warning means that long lived flooding is occuring
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 06:27:09 PM
got a feeling we are fixing to start talking about tornadic cells in a coouple of hours folks. ::wow::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 06:28:51 PM
got a feeling we are fixing to start talking about tornadic cells in a coouple of hours folks. ::wow::
Even here, in middle tennessee?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 06:29:25 PM
Quote
WFUS54 KHUN 012325
TORHUN
TNC051-127-020000-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0024.100501T2325Z-100502T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN MOORE COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 625 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MARBLE
  HILL...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
  TIMS FORD LAKE.
  ESTILL SPRINGS.
  DECHERD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 8608 3518 8601 3512 8631 3513 8634
      3520 8638 3524 8638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 252DEG 32KT 3519 8628

$$
SL





Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: angrypug on May 01, 2010, 06:30:41 PM
got a feeling we are fixing to start talking about tornadic cells in a coouple of hours folks. ::wow::

Not only ark. but miss. also starting to get an increase in storms. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 06:32:07 PM
yes, things are fixing to roll yall. hold on ::wow::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 06:35:23 PM
Nearly everthing in arkansas is discrete, supercellular.

Look out.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 06:37:42 PM
once cell just split out of another cell, its moving 70 mph to the north east
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 06:37:46 PM
News 2 showed a video, took earlier, of a man holding on to a light pole, the people who took the video think the man was swept away and are unsure about his condition, praying for the best...:-\
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 06:38:29 PM
Yes...everything in Arkansas....just not looking good there..
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 06:40:40 PM
News 2 showed a video, took earlier, of a man holding on to a light pole, the people who took the video think the man was swept away and are unsure about his condition, praying for the best...:-\
I hope that he's rescued and is alive and okay.

This is nuts.  No one really believed that this was going to be this huge.  Thank goodness that this didn't happen yesterday, for the Friday rush hour.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan on May 01, 2010, 06:41:20 PM
<sigh> to go to Buffett or not.  Hubby doens't want me to go out. Dang.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 06:45:00 PM
I hope that he's rescued and is alive and okay.

This is nuts.  No one really believed that this was going to be this huge.  Thank goodness that this didn't happen yesterday, for the Friday rush hour.

Me too.

They tried calling 911 for the guy, but all the boats were in use at that time. Terrible situation and hopefully the only one like that.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 06:48:13 PM
Quote
Civil Emergency Message
TNC037-020500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
NASHVILLE METRO OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...

DUE TO MAJOR FLOODING THE NASHVILLE METRO OFFICE OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ADVISES DAVIDSON COUNTY CITIZENS TO PLEASE STAY OFF
ROADS IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. MANY ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE OR BECOMING
IMPASSABLE. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 06:51:30 PM
21 counties in arkansas under a tornado warning ::wow::  wow
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Beth on May 01, 2010, 06:54:05 PM
<sigh> to go to Buffett or not.  Hubby doens't want me to go out. Dang.
Can you spend the night in Nashville?  Close to the Arena? If so, then I would go for it.  If not, well, I don't think I would try it.  Mayor Dean is telling every one to stay off the roads and stay home.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 06:56:15 PM
video of cumberland. all ready in the ampitheatre...

if anything is gonna flood downtown, its gonna be this.

http://www.twitvid.com/S5LUE
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 06:56:51 PM
Mayor Dean has confirmed a death on I-24 at Bell Rd.  I was afraid of that, considering that the cam was turned off after some firemen had investigated a car and started running back to the truck.  Very sad. :(
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 01, 2010, 07:01:43 PM
Sure looks like something went over this PWS in Lawrence County around the time of the doppler-indicated tornado.  Signature drop in pressure and wind direction change.  51 MPH gust also recorded.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KTNLEOMA2
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: pandadug on May 01, 2010, 07:04:50 PM
Me and my family were on I-24 at hickory hollow about 2 hours before what we've seen on TV. At that time, the water could be seen covering the fields on the west side of the interstate but it wasn't over the roads. We took the walden road exit and the water was about a foot or less on the road. We passed two places on walden rd toward murfreesboro rd on our way home and passed two places where the water was maybe a foot deep.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 07:05:02 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
700 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  BLEDSOE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  RHEA COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT/845 PM EDT/

* AT 656 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES NORTH
  OF DUNLAP. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
  MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PIKEVILLE AROUND 710 PM CDT.
  SPRING CITY AROUND 835 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE MOUNT
CREST...MELVINE AND GRANDVIEW.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on May 01, 2010, 07:15:11 PM
I work at the Steak n Shake in Antioch.  I can literally see Bell Road & I-24 from the drive-thru window and out the front.  After I got off, I walked there and saw maybe seven or eight cars on the road under the bridge.  Some dude got something to eat - said that his car was flooded and he was stranded.  Blue Hole Road at Bell was crap too - there is a creek just down the street, with a bridge; the water was so high that it covered THE BRIDGE with 18 inches (at least) of water.  Cane Ridge Road was out earlier but has since become passable again, but with much more rain it, too, will become completely impassable.

Also, I noticed that water was bubbling up and onto the road.

This is terrible and it shows no signs of abating.  You should be committed to a mental institution if you even THINK about non-essential travel!!!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 01, 2010, 07:23:51 PM
My fiance's bro was caught in the Bell Road flooding. From what we hear, the Dodge Dakota is completely submerged. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 07:25:01 PM
My fiance's bro was caught in the Bell Road flooding. From what we hear, the Dodge Dakota is completely submerged. 

Glad he is ok, he has a stunning story to tell people now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: InMemphis on May 01, 2010, 07:28:53 PM
79 as of 7 at Memphis with a dewpoint of 74. Interesting that we our at our highs for today. We could be in store for a dangerous night.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 01, 2010, 07:33:53 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0452.gif)
Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0730 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL/WRN TN/NWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
   
   VALID 020030Z - 020100Z
   
   NEW PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...
   WRN TN AND NWRN MS.

   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
   CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL
   AR INTO FAR NWRN MS/SWRN TN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
   INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN /SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   LOWER-MID 70S/.  RECENT TRENDS IN THE MEM WSR-88D VWP INDICATED AN
   INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...WITH SFC-1 KM SRH
   INCREASING FROM 100 M2/S2 AT 22Z TO 300 M2/S2 AT 00Z.  THIS COMBINED
   WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AND THE APPROACH OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM CENTRAL AR SUGGESTS A NEW TORNADO WATCH
   WILL BE NEEDED TO THE E/NE OF WW 125.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR WITH A FURTHER INCREASE EXPECTED AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS
   ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT...THIS WATCH WILL ALSO NEED TO BE A PDS
   TORNADO WATCH.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/02/2010
   
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 07:35:40 PM
these storms over in arkie remind me of another outbreak back in 99 jan.moving exact same direction. same speed. and same spacing. eentually they will cross over but sould get development down in west miss. i am keeping my eye on that area also
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan in Macon on May 01, 2010, 07:38:57 PM
I so don't want to be home alone with the kids if the weather gets rough tonight.  Last Saturday my daughter was shaking so bad that her teeth were chattering when we were under a tornado warning.  I think what made it worse for her was they were saying over the tv that if were near Mapke Grove Rd to take cover.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 01, 2010, 07:41:31 PM
Its 65 here and doesn't feel stormy at all. I hope for those west of here those storms in arkansas weaken as they move east although I know thats probably not going to happen. I'm hoping for several hours rain free, otherwise I'm going to need a boat because another 3 or 4 inches of rain will put water at my front steps. Tonight and tomorrow is going to be a stressful situation for everyone. Everybody please play the night and tomorrow safe and just stay home.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 07:44:35 PM
we i am fixing to head out and chase. friend just called me. i know its going to be tough. only way to see them good at night is the vivid lightning taking place during the storm. its challenging at night
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: InMemphis on May 01, 2010, 07:49:53 PM
we i am fixing to head out and chase. friend just called me. i know its going to be tough. only way to see them good at night is the vivid lightning taking place during the storm. its challenging at night
Are you heading over into Arkansas? Please keep in mind that if you are not experienced you could be in store for a lot of danger.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: StormNine on May 01, 2010, 07:50:05 PM
we i am fixing to head out and chase. friend just called me. i know its going to be tough. only way to see them good at night is the vivid lightning taking place during the storm. its challenging at night

Watch out not only will it be during the night, there is very bad flooding, and these are super HP cells so be very careful when chasing these.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2010, 07:53:31 PM
yes  sir last post  i can make for a while. we are heading on i40 west bound. from jackson tn.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 07:59:27 PM
yes  sir last post  i can make for a while. we are heading on i40 west bound. from jackson tn.

Be safe!!  Check in when you can...but BE SAFE!!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan in Macon on May 01, 2010, 08:02:03 PM
From Facebook: WZTV FOX 17 The National Guard has been activated- Tennessee Emergency Management Association has declared a state of Emergency in Middle Tennessee
2 minutes ago
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 08:04:15 PM
Our yard has lost several inches of soil today due to erosion.  Buried lines now lay exposed above ground.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 08:09:36 PM
Watch coming out...isn't demarcated as a PDS.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 08:10:40 PM
Correction....it is now marked as PDS.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan in Macon on May 01, 2010, 08:11:04 PM
TEMA just stated on Channel 5 that a train on it's way back to Nashville is stranded in Smith Co when the tracks washed out ahead of it.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 01, 2010, 08:11:12 PM
Seems like Mill Creek in Antioch is now above record level [23.8'] and forecast to reach 25.76'
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=ohx&gage=antt1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 (http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=ohx&gage=antt1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 08:11:58 PM
Our yard has lost several inches of soil today due to erosion.  Buried lines now lay exposed above ground.

WOW...

The infrastructure problems from this....
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 08:13:30 PM
Seems like Mill Creek in Antioch is now above record level [23.8'] and forecast to reach 25.76'
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=ohx&gage=antt1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 (http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=ohx&gage=antt1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1)


(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/antt1_hg.png)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 01, 2010, 08:14:01 PM
Looks like the AR storms and the cells in N. Alabama are pretty strong looking.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 08:18:28 PM
Tornado warning for Florence,AL it is heaading my way. ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 01, 2010, 08:28:47 PM
Like last night and today it is just making a slow progression eastward. That is why we have saw the flooding today on the scale that it has been, because it is in no hurry to get out of here.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 08:29:22 PM
Loosahatchie River in Arlington continues to overflow its banks. The McDonalds on highway 70 is basically an island surrounded by 3 feet of water. The gas tanks at the BP station at Airline and Hwy70 are submerged up to 3-4 feet. Simply amazing and possibly a once in a lifetime event.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 01, 2010, 08:30:14 PM
About what time do you guys think this stuff will be hitting Northern Mid. TN?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 08:30:27 PM
Anyone else thinking that most of Tennessee is going to be closed on Monday?

I'm really worried about the next set of storms that are coming this way.  With all the flooding we have now, Heaven knows that we don't need more. :(
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 08:30:58 PM
Quote
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
825 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

ALC033-077-020145-
/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-100502T0145Z/
LAUDERDALE AL-COLBERT AL-
825 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
COLBERT AND CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...

AT 825 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TUSCUMBIA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

RESIDENTS IN THE CITIES OF FLORENCE AND SHEFFIELD ARE URGED TO TAKE
COVER NOW!

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORD
CITY...LEIGHTON...SAINT FLORIAN...CLOVERDALE...KILLEN...CENTER
STAR...ZIP CITY AND ELGIN.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ENBP on May 01, 2010, 08:31:34 PM
I can't believe I am seeing that truck going down 24 under Briley,,how brave, or stupid? And there goes a Van going through it.  Just Amazed.

Brave? That truck's water displacement pushed other cars around. It was an action that was selfish and jeopardized the lives of other people. I hope they find out who it was an prosecute.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 01, 2010, 08:32:38 PM
I'm very surprised WTVF has been wall to wall for so long.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan in Macon on May 01, 2010, 08:33:26 PM
Brave? That truck's water displacement pushed other cars around. It was an action that was selfish and jeopardized the lives of other people. I hope they find out who it was an prosecute.

I agree!  I mean what if this is what caused the death in that area.... the driver caused such a wake that overturned cars.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on May 01, 2010, 08:33:41 PM
Curt,we could have a once in a lifetime tornado outbreak heading our way soon,at least for some people.I heard dr forbes say that this could be a major outbreak and i usually dont hear him say that much.He said EXTENSIVE through sunday. ::wow::Fred gossage said that the lowlevel shear hasnt even got ramped up yet,and the supercells could be more favorable further east. ::pondering::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 01, 2010, 08:34:05 PM
Brave? That truck's water displacement pushed other cars around. It was an action that was selfish and jeopardized the lives of other people. I hope they find out who it was an prosecute.
I agree. That was incredibly stupid and reckless of that driver. I just pray that it wasn't what helped contribute to the death that happened there as well.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 08:36:24 PM
I agree!  I mean what if this is what caused the death in that area.... the driver caused such a wake that overturned cars.
I'm almost willing to bet that it was this trucker who caused the death of the person who drowned, as the car that was being investigated before TDOT turned off the camera on I-24 at Bell Rd. was overturned.

I hope they find that guy and prosecute him.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 08:38:21 PM
I don't know if it was mentioned but Tornado Watch 127 IS a PDS Watch

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0127_radar.gif)

Quote
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
 High (>95%)

 
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
 High (80%)

 
 
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
 High (70%)

 
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
 Mod (50%)

 
 
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
 Mod (60%)

 
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (40%)

 
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
 High (>95%)

 
 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 08:40:11 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image1.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 08:42:10 PM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
837 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND THE TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR 6 EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WE WILL, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
STORMS PUSHING INTO SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN CASE ANY
BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE.

AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
712 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

/ISSUED 338 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010/

DUAL HAZARDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE THE CONCERNS
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLASH FLOODING...WSR-88D STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AND RAIN GAUGES
SHOW A BROAD AREA IN EXCESS OF SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR TO SOUTHWEST TN SINCE LAST NIGHT. A SMALLER AREA FROM NORTHERN
SHELBY COUNTY TO HAYWOOD COUNTY HAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 10 AND 13
INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES ARE COPING WITH SWIFT WATER RESCUES AND
IMPASSABLE ROADS.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER THREE TO SIX
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID SOUTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WEST OF THE
MS RIVER AND SUNDAY EVENING EAST OF THE RIVER.

SEVERE WEATHER...THERE REMAINS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN H5 DISTURBANCE IS GENERATING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS
AS OF 3 PM. RECEIVED MULTIPLE TORNADO REPORTS ACROSS NORTHEAST MS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FORCING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S RAISES THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIVER.  EXPECT THE
FRONT TO EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 08:43:17 PM
Funnel cloud reported in Florence, its is heading towards me, about to go down to basement for second time tonight.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 08:45:39 PM
Stay safe Adam!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 01, 2010, 08:46:20 PM
I'm sure this has been posted already on here and I just haven't seen it but Nashvillewx is reporting that 5 people have been confirmed dead in Tennessee today from flooding. If I have somehow missed this and it has already been posted I'm sorry for being repetitive.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 08:46:41 PM
I was hoping things would go linear before reaching the river tonight... but from the looks of things.. everythings going to stay discrete. Is this the general consensus?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Mr. Golf on May 01, 2010, 08:51:17 PM
Wfayette,things are just ramping up.The instability is strongest closer to us than it is there if you can believe that ::faint::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 08:51:45 PM
It appears as if it's going to be a long night.  Let's remember to keep the chatter relevent and on-topic...  
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 08:52:55 PM
They are saying the storm is losing rotation, but it looks like it is stregthening.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: InMemphis on May 01, 2010, 09:03:48 PM
Trained spotter seeing a tornado near the Cross/Woodruff County line. I have a feeling this is just getting started.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 09:06:28 PM
They are saying the storm is losing rotation, but it looks like it is stregthening.

There is no indication of it weakening...  I do not know why OHX has not issued a warning.

EDIT: Funnel cloud reported over the state line in tennessee overheard via Lauderdale county EMA direct to HUN
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 09:08:06 PM
Should i go to my safe place?

If you have to ask you need to go.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 09:09:34 PM
Supercell in southeastern arkansas moving directly towards Memphis proper.

If it holds together or strengthens, could be bad bad news.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 09:21:50 PM
(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0454.gif)
Quote
ACUS11 KWNS 020220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020219
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-020315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TO NERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020219Z - 020315Z

STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS AND ACTIVITY MOVING FROM NWRN AL INTO
MIDDLE TN WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  A NEW WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT
WARRANT A NEW WW AT THIS TIME.

MODIFIED 00Z JAN/BHM SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS INDICATED A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE /SFC-1 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH
AOA 300 M2/S2/.  THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNCAPPED OVER MS WITH MLCAPE
AOA 2500 J/KG AND LOW LCLS.  MODIFIED 00Z BHM SOUNDING FOR 01Z
SURFACE CONDITIONS AT MSL SUGGEST DIABATIC COOLING IS INCREASING THE
SBCINH WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED THREAT FARTHER E INTO AL.
DESPITE A FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS YET THIS EVENING TO THE S
AND E OF WW 127.  

...NWRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN...
WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO MIDDLE TN MAY WEAKEN THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THIS REGION ONCE IT TRACKS NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD FROM SERN THROUGH SRN MIDDLE
TN.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES 300-500 M2/S2.

...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MS...
FARTHER SW INTO CENTRAL MS...THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...AND THIS REGION BEING WELL REMOVED FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH FARTHER W SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT COULD BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR A TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 05/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 09:22:42 PM
Supercell in southeastern arkansas moving directly towards Memphis proper.

If it holds together or strengthens, could be bad bad news.

Cautiously watching...Thousands of people in Downtown Memphis at Music Fest
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 09:29:37 PM
Cell is not making a right turn. It must change soon to avoid Memphis and Shelby County.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 09:35:38 PM
Cell is not making a right turn. It must change soon to avoid Memphis and Shelby County.

Looks to me like its headed for somewhere between the river and midtown.

Musicfest folks need to batton down the hatches
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 09:36:47 PM
Live coverage WREG

http://www.wreg.com/
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 09:39:40 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
937 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EAST CENTRAL HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 933 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 18 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT PLEASANT...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF LAWRENCEBURG...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  MOUNT PLEASANT BY 955 PM CDT...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 09:41:06 PM
Didn't dave brown say the worst was over Memphis?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 09:41:26 PM
Quote
WFUS54 KMEG 020239
TORMEG
ARC035-077-123-MSC033-143-TNC157-020345-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0061.100502T0239Z-100502T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
939 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 938 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  BRICKEYS...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARIANNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HUGHES...
  MARION...WEST MEMPHIS...HORN LAKE...SOUTHAVEN AND MIDTOWN MEMPHIS.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR HORN LAKE...HORSESHOE LAKE...
  LAKE MCKELLAR...MIDWAY LAKE AND ROBCO LAKE
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 09:42:03 PM
SNIPPED TOR WARN

FINALLY.  This cell has been looking mean for quite awhile, IMO.  Any Idea why OHX waited so long before issuing a TOR on it?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 01, 2010, 09:42:40 PM


Yuck... I especially hate night time tornado warnings.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 09:44:48 PM
FWIW, Temps around N AL are between 77-79F at this hour, and dewpoints around 70F.  Sheesh.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on May 01, 2010, 09:45:33 PM
What an historic event going on in TN right now. Record flooding and now tornadic cells headed toward both Memphis and Nashville. Huge weather day and it's still unfolding. A long event for sure.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 09:46:29 PM
So much for sleeping this weekend...here we go. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 09:46:42 PM
My temp is 75, and my dewpoint is 71. Tempreture really jumped after that line came through. Was it a warm front.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 01, 2010, 09:46:51 PM
FWIW, Temps around N AL are between 77-79F at this hour, and dewpoints around 70F.  Sheesh.

Is that from earlier sun, or advection?  I've gone up a couple of degrees within the last few minutes....still only at 64 though.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 09:48:30 PM
Is that from earlier sun, or advection?  I've gone up a couple of degrees within the last few minutes....still only at 64 though.

I think a bit of both. 
My temp is 75, and my dewpoint is 71. Tempreture really jumped after that line came through. Was it a warm front.

Yes, there has been a warm front/boundary set by the earlier stuff today that has been pushing northward from the state line.  It's highlighted in the MCD I posted earlier.  It's what's causing these cells to start spinning.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 09:49:41 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
948 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 947 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF HOHENWALD...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF WAYNESBORO...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  HOHENWALD BY 1000 PM CDT...
  9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTERVILLE BY 1015 PM CDT...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 09:50:18 PM
So where is the warm front now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 09:50:45 PM
I think a bit of both. 
Yes, there has been a warm front/boundary set by the earlier stuff today that has been pushing northward from the state line.  It's highlighted in the MCD I posted earlier.  It's what's causing these cells to start spinning.


I think Adam just said his temp rose after that line pushed through.

Also, I sure hope people are getting the **** out of tom lee park in memphis
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 09:51:25 PM
I attempted, unsuccessfully, to get to the Hickory Hollow area in Antioch this evening.  But, there was no getting past Mill Creek.

Bell Road at Blue Hole, Antioch Pike, and a couple of other routes I attempted, were cut off by the raging torent of Mill Creek.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on May 01, 2010, 09:51:34 PM
I think a bit of both. 
Yes, there has been a warm front/boundary set by the earlier stuff today that has been pushing northward from the state line.


Undoubtedly old outflow boundaries are scattered throughout the area and can cause localized focii for spinups or as an enhancer to rotation already underway.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 09:51:58 PM
I think Adam just said his temp rose after that line pushed through.

Also, I sure hope people are getting the **** out of tom lee park in memphis
Yes that is what i said, thats not very good.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 09:52:40 PM
I think Adam just said his temp rose after that line pushed through.

Right... because the warm advection behind the boundary that's pushing the storms..
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 01, 2010, 09:54:31 PM
We are getting extremely heavy rain here again but still nothing severe thankfully. Like adam said as the storms pushed back in my temp has risen several degrees. About an hour ago I was at 61 and I am now at 66 and climbing.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 01, 2010, 09:55:36 PM
I mean i started sweating with in ten minutes after the storm.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 09:58:16 PM
Cell heading towards MEG looks good...in a bad way.  It appears as if the mid and upper level rotation wants to get to the surface.....
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 10:00:44 PM
Cell heading towards MEG looks good...in a bad way.  It appears as if the mid and upper level rotation wants to get to the surface.....

Downtown Memphis being evacuated...several thousand folks trying to get to shelter.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 10:01:18 PM
bolivar tn storm looks like its rotating
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 10:01:55 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
959 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EAST CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 956 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MOUNT
  PLEASANT...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  COLUMBIA BY 1015 PM CDT...
  SPRING HILL BY 1030 PM CDT...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 10:02:51 PM
Downtown Memphis being evacuated...several thousand folks trying to get to shelter.

Should've been doon fifteen minutes ago if you ask me....
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 10:03:53 PM
That is a frightening looking cell approaching Memphis.  Hope it cycles/weakens as it moves into the metro area.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on May 01, 2010, 10:04:04 PM
Cell heading towards MEG looks good...in a bad way.  It appears as if the mid and upper level rotation wants to get to the surface.....

Cycling. At the worst time for Memphis. Should be at peak when it gets to Memphis.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 10:04:46 PM
Should've been doon fifteen minutes ago if you ask me....

Eric,

Are you seeing the couplet on the bolivar storm? its right on the line for the radar, so its tough to see, but is definitely there.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 10:05:10 PM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 020301
SVROHX
TNC005-083-085-161-020330-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0064.100502T0301Z-100502T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1001 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN STEWART COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  BENTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 956 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMDEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BIG
  SANDY.

LAT...LON 3613 8821 3616 8816 3621 8814 3624 8810
      3631 8810 3637 8807 3637 8800 3641 8803
      3649 8798 3638 8773 3594 8810 3599 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 210DEG 52KT 3607 8813

$$

ROSE




Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 10:07:02 PM
Honestly, the storm in maury county appears to be strengthening.

headed straight for the nashville metro area (and areas that flooded badly in franklin/brentwood
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 10:09:32 PM
Honestly, the storm in maury county appears to be strengthening.

headed straight for the nashville metro area (and areas that flooded badly in franklin/brentwood

Definitely appears to be strengthening....
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 10:09:59 PM
Funnel Cloud reported in Mt. Pleasant...per spotter (WKRN)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 10:10:03 PM
Cycling. At the worst time for Memphis. Should be at peak when it gets to Memphis.

VTI is now 9.4....almost at the extreme high end of the scale....very bad....please pray for us guys.  Thanks.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 10:10:35 PM
VTI 9.4 with a TVS about to enter downtown memphis...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 10:11:09 PM
Heading for shelter now...back in a bit. Praying hard.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 10:13:23 PM
Heading for shelter now...back in a bit. Praying hard.

I have a feeling we're all praying with you, not only for you, but the thousands out in the streets now...  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 01, 2010, 10:17:27 PM
Very large hail threat...but as has been the case with most of these storms this evening...a lot of problems developing and sustaining low level rotation with this one. I'm not downplaying it...something could very quickly develop...but that's the reality of what's unfolding so far...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 10:19:22 PM
New Tor Watch mid TN
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 10:20:10 PM
Quote
Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

TORNADO WATCH 130 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TNC003-005-015-021-031-037-041-043-081-083-085-101-111-117-119-
125-135-147-149-159-161-165-169-187-189-021000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0130.100502T0320Z-100502T1000Z/

TN
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD              BENTON              CANNON
CHEATHAM             COFFEE              DAVIDSON
DEKALB               DICKSON             HICKMAN
HOUSTON              HUMPHREYS           LEWIS
MACON                MARSHALL            MAURY
MONTGOMERY           PERRY               ROBERTSON
RUTHERFORD           SMITH               STEWART
SUMNER               TROUSDALE           WILLIAMSON
WILSON
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 10:21:55 PM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 020317
SVROHX
TNC125-147-020330-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0065.100502T0317Z-100502T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1017 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 1014 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
  MILES SOUTH OF GUTHRIE...OR 9 MILES EAST OF CLARKSVILLE...AND     
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. A TRAINED SPOTTER HAS ALREADY REPORTED
  THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL WITH THIS STORM.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL NORTHWESTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY AT 1030 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3665 8693 3645 8712 3646 8714 3644 8716
      3653 8732 3666 8722 3666 8694
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 215DEG 54KT 3656 8717

$$

ROSE




338
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 01, 2010, 10:22:34 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0130_radar.gif)

Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 130
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1020 PM
   UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
  
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF NASHVILLE
   TENNESSEE TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
  
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 127...WW 128...WW 129...
  
   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST ALONG RETREATING WARM
   FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MIDDLE TN.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES WITH STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY.
   OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS N OF THE BOUNDARY.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 10:24:00 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1023 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EXTREME NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1019 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
  24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIRVIEW...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
  CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
  INDICATED COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3600 8711 3584 8693 3559 8734 3573 8748
TIME...MOT...LOC 0323Z 230DEG 45KT 3573 8731

$$

ROSE




Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 10:25:05 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0130_radar.gif)

Quote
TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

WT 0130
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        :  40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES         :  20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS :  70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 1.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 450
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 22030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU0.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 10:26:33 PM
Textbook supercell hitting downtown MEG.....
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 10:26:42 PM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 020324
SVROHX
TNC125-020330-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0066.100502T0324Z-100502T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1024 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 1019 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
  NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT
  CAMPBELL NORTH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
  AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3652 8745 3660 8763 3663 8764 3665 8762
      3665 8736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 209DEG 54KT 3664 8750

$$

ROSE




Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 10:28:16 PM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 020327
SVROHX
TNC161-020345-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0067.100502T0327Z-100502T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1027 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  STEWART COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 1023 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOVER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FORT DONELSON AT 1035 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3667 8786 3665 8785 3665 8764 3662 8764
      3633 8784 3633 8787 3639 8802 3642 8804
      3668 8788
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 207DEG 58KT 3645 8789

$$

ROSE



Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: tnbassman on May 01, 2010, 10:29:24 PM
WOW! Fished a small bass tourny tonight. Get home log in and wow! Maybe 2 inches of rain here in the last 2 hours but nothing like west abd mid TN have went through today. Id be shocked if Memphis dont get hammered shortly. Look at the very southern edge right now. Lord please let that not be on the ground.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 10:31:21 PM
Not Looking fun....

(http://i763.photobucket.com/albums/xx277/tspjr/memtor.jpg)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Beth on May 01, 2010, 10:31:48 PM
Wind is blowing hard here now the storm in Centerville is headed our way.  Very warm and humid air too.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: tnbassman on May 01, 2010, 10:32:59 PM
Grapefruit sized hail in mem possible according to WKRN.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 10:34:05 PM
Quote
WWUS54 KMEG 020332
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1032 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

ARC035-TNC157-167-020415-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0063.000000T0000Z-100502T0415Z/
CRITTENDEN AR-SHELBY TN-TIPTON TN-
1032 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
TIPTON...SHELBY AND EAST CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTIES...

AT 1032 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A WALL CLOUD NEAR
WEST MEMPHIS.  THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ST CLAIR...OR
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST MEMPHIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ATOKA...
BARTLETT...BOLTON...GILT EDGE...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...JAMES
MILL...HARVARD...ST CLAIR...REDMAN POINT...GAMMON...RANDOLPH...BEAVER
AND DRUMMONDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM. IN
ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 9007 3541 9005 3545 9000 3547 9002
      3553 8996 3553 8993 3556 8989 3558 8989
      3539 8963 3522 8964 3507 8993 3522 9012
      3520 9028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 232DEG 42KT 3521 9007

$$


Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 01, 2010, 10:42:18 PM
Hmmm... temp just shot up two degrees in the last 30 minutes.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 10:43:21 PM
warned cell sw of nashville looks to be reorganizing.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2010, 10:44:34 PM
Other potentially tornadic cells moving into West TN:

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1042 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1042 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DENTON...OR NEAR
  STEELE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  CARUTHERSVILLE...DENTON...STEELE...BRAGGADOC IO...SHADE...
  STUBTOWN...CANADY...NEW SURVEY...COVINGTON...COTTONWOOD POINT...
  TYLER AND REELFOOT LAKE STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

.TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 01, 2010, 10:45:43 PM
Wow, it got sticky here all of a sudden.  Lightning is pretty outside.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 01, 2010, 10:48:07 PM
Is there the potential of more supercells forming to the west?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 10:48:36 PM
Wow, it got sticky here all of a sudden.  Lightning is pretty outside.

Love the thunder, too bad I feel like crude! >:(

I'm not getting any sleep tonight as we still have the storms back into AR to move through, which won't be til early morning...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 10:51:01 PM
The only time I will say this since we are in SWM....I will not watch WMC anymore. DB was absolutely unprofessional to a new degree tonight. I hate the negativity against NWS. No more WMC and I actually like their equipment better.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 01, 2010, 10:55:01 PM
WREG says funnel cloud reported at 51 and Woodstock in Millington.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2010, 10:56:33 PM
WREG says funnel cloud reported at 51 and Woodstock in Millington.

Rotation appears to be increasing on that cell...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 01, 2010, 10:57:05 PM
The only time I will say this since we are in SWM....I will not watch WMC anymore. DB was absolutely unprofessional to a new degree tonight. I hate the negativity against NWS. No more WMC and I actually like their equipment better.

Edit:  Nevermind...we'll go into this when we're not in SWM but short answer is I agree.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2010, 10:58:59 PM
Edit:  Nevermind...we'll go into this when we're not in SWM but short answer is I agree.

Thanks.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 01, 2010, 10:59:26 PM
Quote
WFUS54 KMEG 020358
TORMEG
TNC047-075-097-157-167-020445-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0065.100502T0358Z-100502T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1058 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTH CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1058 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 8
  MILES SOUTH OF MUNFORD...OR NEAR MILLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BRIGHTON...
  COVINGTON...DIXONVILLE...MUNFORD AND RIPLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 8952 3547 8924 3527 8965 3539 8974
      3554 8989
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 232DEG 39KT 3538 8977

$$



Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 11:05:49 PM
Dewpoints falling back down here in N AL.  Temps remaining around the same, but dewpoints have dropped to the 66-68F range over the past hour.  Good sign that things may be calming down for the evening...maybe.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 01, 2010, 11:08:37 PM
slight risk was extended further east toward Chattanooga. I hope its not a repost... It looks different from my previous view. My apologies if its a repost.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 11:13:05 PM
Is something up with OHX?  They let that tornado warning run the duration without update, even after the cell had clearly moved out of the warning box, and I haven't seen a peep out of them since that warning was issued...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2010, 11:16:47 PM
Thanks.

Sorry, I just really couldnt help but vent for 2 seconds. More later tomorrow.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 11:17:45 PM
Cell just moved through east nashville. Torrential rain. Gusty winds, but not to severe levels. They were kinda swirly... that storm still looks like it's wanting to rotate...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mook on May 01, 2010, 11:18:40 PM
According to WKRN, the La Vergne mayor has reopened the city..
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 01, 2010, 11:31:55 PM
Ya'll seeing the couplet on the hendersonville storm. you have to look from a non nashville radar. but its there. there were certainly some rotating winds when it went through here.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 01, 2010, 11:40:19 PM
Just got back home a few minutes ago. I was taking a look at the model runs from the last 36 hours or so, and it seems that the only one that picked up on the potential for major flooding in the nashville area today was the WRF, which indicated that 8+ inches would be possible early in the day on friday. Most other models had held back the heaviest moisture into NW TN and the Paducah forecast area. Very hard to believe after reading through today's posts that there is still more to come tomorrow, even harder to believe that it hasn't rained a drop here yet. Everybody stay safe out there.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 01, 2010, 11:48:33 PM
Some more storms firing south of KMEM.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 01, 2010, 11:49:41 PM
Quote
088
FXUS64 KHUN 020445 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1144 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENT BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS WELCOME AFTER EARLIER SUPERCELL
CONVECTION WHICH TRACKED THRU NWRN AL HAS SHIFTED INTO NRN MIDDLE
TN.  THE 00Z RAOB AT BMX INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT CAP WITH A CINH
VALUE JUST OVER 90 J/KG.  THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY HALTED NEW
DEVELOPMENT IN AL AND LIMITED THE EWD EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN ERN
MS.  FOR THE NEAR TERM...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN
AND NRN TN WHERE AMPLE INFLOW EXISTS. NEW CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS
TAKING PLACE WITHIN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGION ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR IN MS AND ERN AR HOWEVER...IN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR) AND HEAVY RAINFALL (HIGH PWS).  THIS REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT WITH THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTING TSRA ARRIVING IN
NWRN AL FROM 09-12Z. WARM SECTOR SUPERCELL AND TORNADO PARAMETERS
ARE STILL QUITE FAVORABLE ALONG THE AL-MS LINE WWD.  0-1KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KT REMAIN IN PLACE...SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
THREAT OF ISOLD TORNADOES/DMG WINDS IN THE HWO LATE TNGT IN SRN MIDDLE
TN AND NWRN AL.
&&
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 01, 2010, 11:56:02 PM
Watching these storms in Arkansas, mississippi and what is going through middle tn they are all moving north with the slightest eastward movement. If they maintain that speed or track as they move into already hard hit areas tomorrow they will make bad conditions horrific in many areas. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 12:01:53 AM
Quote

643
WOUS44 KOHX 020457
CEMOHX
TNC037-020800-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.

DUE TO MAJOR FLOODING THE NASHVILLE METRO OFFICE OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ADVISES DAVIDSON COUNTY CITIZENS TO PLEASE STAY OFF
ROADS TONIGHT IF AT ALL POSSIBLE
. MANY ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE OR
MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE DURING THE NIGHT IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS DEVELOP IN THE AREA. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SITUATION.


STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

$$
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 12:16:20 AM
An outflow boundary has pushed its way through just now, pretty gusty winds with it...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2010, 12:20:56 AM
Let's not forget this...add to this AHPS indicates the Loosahatchie River in Arlington is cresting just one half foot below the record crest 25.27ft in the major flood of Christmas 1987...
Quote
..A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN TIPTON 
NORTHERN   
SHELBY AND NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES... 
 
AT 1117 PM CDT...THE MEMPHIS AND SHELBY COUNTY EMA REPORTED THAT   
RISING WATER HAS REACHED OVER SEVERAL TRAILERS NEAR THE INTERSECTION   
OF RALEIGH MILLINGTON ROAD AND NAVY ROAD. IN ADDITION...WATER WAS   
STARTING TO ENCROACH HIGHWAY 51 NEAR THE ENTRANCE RAMP TO HIGHWAY   
385. SEVERAL OTHER ROADS IN THE MILLINGTON AREA ARE COVERED WITH   
WATER. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 02, 2010, 12:24:58 AM
The storms south of Memphis seem discrete.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on May 02, 2010, 12:25:30 AM
6.32" of rain today...this is 0.28" shy of the all time record of 6.60" set on September 13, 1979...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 12:48:46 AM
Does anyone else think they will downgrade to just a MDT risk in this next outlook update?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Cameron K. on May 02, 2010, 12:52:25 AM
I haven't read specific amount in my Cocorahs rain gauge, but I know any more and it'll start to overflow.   ::wow:: I'm more than positive we've met well over what they were forecasted over the next 5 days during yesterday(Saturday's) 12z qpf outloook.


0z qpf for the next 5 days. This is insane.

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 12:56:25 AM
Temp. and DP climbing...66.1F and 64 DP. We have been in the 62/61 range all day, things getting juicier.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 02, 2010, 01:05:08 AM
According to the Weather Underground's radar, the cell in Memphis is giving off a TVS.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Cameron K. on May 02, 2010, 01:06:28 AM
Temp. and DP climbing...66.1F and 64 DP. We have been in the 62/61 range all day, things getting juicier.

I'll say. Worked a wedding this evening and couldn't believe how hot and muggy it felt outside when I went home.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 01:10:13 AM
Pretty strong rotation on the supercell NW of Murray, KY...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 02, 2010, 01:10:48 AM
There she goes again; another TOR for Shelby County, TN.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 02, 2010, 01:11:23 AM
The temps here maintain their upward climb. Were now at 75 here, I can't remember what time it was exactly but it wasn't long ago when we were at 62
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: weatherowl on May 02, 2010, 01:15:36 AM
Hey Charles or anyone else on tonight that can give me some insight!  I don't post often but have been around for well over a year now.  I am in Mayfield, KY at my parents' house.  Extreme western Kentucky - We have had several close calls tonight but can you check that one cell coming from West Tennessee toward me - again, Mayfield/Graves County...extreme Western Kentucky.  I am quite concerned and ancxiety ridden as the meterologist and radar capabilities are much less thorough than what we have in Middle Tennessee.  This scared girl would love some advice...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 02, 2010, 01:17:28 AM
There she goes again; another TOR for Shelby County, TN.

I was sleeping quite nicely
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 01:19:05 AM
weatherowl, rotation is pretty good on it right now with an inflow notch and everything. I can see you have been put into a Tornado Warning. If I were you, I would be going to my safe place right now.

I will keep my eye on it for you!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: weatherowl on May 02, 2010, 01:21:37 AM
Thank you.  Am moving there now if not much going on in TN and you could keep an eye on it for me it would be much appreciated.  Think I am gonna have to disappear for a while though.  Thanks again...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Cameron K. on May 02, 2010, 01:22:29 AM
Hey Charles or anyone else on tonight that can give me some insight!  I don't post often but have been around for well over a year now.  I am in Mayfield, KY at my parents' house.  Extreme western Kentucky - We have had several close calls tonight but can you check that one cell coming from West Tennessee toward me - again, Mayfield/Graves County...extreme Western Kentucky.  I am quite concerned and ancxiety ridden as the meterologist and radar capabilities are much less thorough than what we have in Middle Tennessee.  This scared girl would love some advice...
The pillow was calling me, but I went ahead and read your post. So I checked the grlevel 3 radar and the track is pretty much straight for Mayfield. You are warned for a tornado currently, but I only see rotation, nothing confirmed. Still I would find your safe place, because it's night time, it's hard to see, and there is radar indicated golf ball size hail with straight line winds. Easy for a tornado to form very soon if not yet.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 01:22:50 AM
Thank you.  Am moving there now if not much going on in TN and you could keep an eye on it for me it would be much appreciated.  Think I am gonna have to disappear for a while though.  Thanks again...

No problem, the warning text says that it should be around Mayfield by 12:40, so I would plan on it arriving at around 12:35 or so...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: weatherowl on May 02, 2010, 01:25:02 AM
Going to hall now and have my parents there already.  Thank you so much for your help.  I'm terrified...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 01:26:26 AM
Going to hall now and have my parents there already.  Thank you so much for your help.  I'm terrified...

I do have good news, the rotation doesn't appear as strong as it did 10 minutes ago or so...but still one could form.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Cameron K. on May 02, 2010, 01:30:45 AM
Well I'm out for the night. Take care be safe yall.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 02, 2010, 01:57:19 AM
I see people here have reached their limit now as there is one TOR and three STW in Tennessee and more possibly on the way in and not a peep.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 02, 2010, 02:00:10 AM
I noticed that too.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: weatherowl on May 02, 2010, 02:01:32 AM
Hey guys!  Am out of the hallway for the time being...  How does the rest of my night look???
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: mempho on May 02, 2010, 02:01:58 AM
I noticed that too.

Oh well...I'm gonna catch a few minutes of sleep.  See you whenever the next one comes in.  
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 02, 2010, 02:03:53 AM
Oh well...I'm gonna catch a few minutes of sleep.  See you whenever the next one comes in.  

OK.  It seems the surface winds are now becoming more veered behind this line of storms.  West Memphis 10 minutes ago reported winds to the southwest, so there may not be much more other than rain.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2010, 02:09:52 AM
Well...I've had a grand total of 90 minutes of sleep in about the last 36 hours...so with this line now through Memphis I think I'm calling it a night...hopefully I will get to have a late morning!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 03:46:15 AM
Quote
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

TNC023-109-020900-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0078.000000T0000Z-100502T0900Z/
CHESTER TN-MCNAIRY TN-
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR MCNAIRY
AND CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 342 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO.  THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GOOD HOPE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SELMER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2010, 04:06:53 AM
Quote
358 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL HARDEMAN...BENTON AND WESTERN TIPPAH COUNTIES...

AT 358 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRING HILL...OR
13 MILES EAST OF HOLLY SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ASHLAND...
FALKNER...RIPLEY...NEW CANAAN...SPRING HILL...BETHEL...WINBORN...
BRODY...MURRY...WHITTEN TOWN...TIPLERSVILLE...PINE GROVE AND
HAMILTON.



Quote
354 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

TNC023-039-071-077-109-020915-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0080.000000T0000Z-100502T0915Z/
DECATUR TN-HENDERSON TN-CHESTER TN-HARDIN TN-MCNAIRY TN-
354 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MCNAIRY...NORTHERN HARDIN...EAST CENTRAL CHESTER...
SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND DECATUR COUNTIES...

AT 354 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MORRIS CHAPEL...OR 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAVANNAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ADAMSVILLE...
CRUMP...DARDEN...DECATURVILLE...ENVILLE...JA CKS CREEK...
MILLEDGEVILLE...MORRIS CHAPEL...PARSONS...REAGAN...SALTILLO...
SARDIS...SAVANNAH AND SCOTTS HILL.



Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2010, 04:17:30 AM
i have had about much sleep as you kevin.  fatalities now benng reported in north miss.   sad.  i am so tired, i have been chasing all night, just got back home.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 04:23:22 AM
OHX needs to start issuing warnings for this cell, it is almost into Perry County and so far...no warning. Thank you OHX!

Quote
TORNADO WARNING
TNC005-085-135-021000-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0035.100502T0928Z-100502T1000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
428 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  PERRY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN BENTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 500 AM CDT

* AT 424 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES WEST OF
  LINDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN
  HENDERSON COUNTY REPORTS A TORNADO IN SCOTTS HILL.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LINDEN BY 440 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 8822 3591 8775 3584 8772 3574 8773
      3572 8771 3570 8774 3567 8774 3565 8769
      3553 8798 3561 8803 3573 8803 3581 8798
      3582 8800 3581 8802 3585 8803 3584 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0927Z 230DEG 32KT 3561 8805

$$

BOYD

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 04:44:07 AM
This cell is in a strengthen phase as it passes NW of Linden...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: muleyman on May 02, 2010, 04:46:27 AM
thank you for still being up and watching
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 04:48:56 AM
Quote
TORNADO WARNING
TNC081-085-135-021015-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0036.100502T0946Z-100502T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
446 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTH CENTRAL HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...


* UNTIL 515 AM CDT

* AT 442 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
  LOBELVILLE...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF LINDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED LOBELVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 8766 3568 8743 3561 8793 3573 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0945Z 238DEG 40KT 3574 8784

$$

BOYD


Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 02, 2010, 04:58:45 AM
It is absolutely rockin here right now! Rain coming down in sheets, strong winds, thunder lightining the works.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 05:04:34 AM
I would not be surprised if we hear of a tornado on the ground at any moment, rotation is very impressive...gate-to-gate. Weatherunderground's radar shows it well.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 05:09:51 AM
Look at far northern Robertson County...looks like rotation to me there.

May have a Tornado Warning come out soon for Logan County (Russellville)...

I'm biting my tongue, but this should be warned. Strong rotation is showing up in that area.

Also, just south of Dickson the rotation, again, increases.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jilly on May 02, 2010, 05:25:18 AM
weather radio woke me ... in basement closet now
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 02, 2010, 05:25:53 AM
Its not doing much here atm. Im hatin my backwoods internet though I can't see a radar to tell what came through or more importantly what is left to come and the tv is out so i'm kinda in the dark.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 05:30:30 AM
weather radio woke me ... in basement closet now

Good, it did its job. ;) Stay safe!

And Sbeagles, there is one more cell down towards Savannah I am watching closely. Weak rotation is showing up in that cell, but no warning currently on it.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 05:35:01 AM
Quote
WFUS54 KOHX 021031
TOROHX
TNC021-037-043-187-021100-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0038.100502T1031Z-100502T1100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
531 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  WEST CENTRAL DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  CHEATHAM COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 600 AM CDT

* AT 524 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BURNS...OR
  NEAR DICKSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...WHITE BLUFF...
  AND ASHLAND CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8678 3596 8721 3598 8736 3605 8746
      3632 8729 3633 8728 3635 8727 3643 8718
      3642 8715 3645 8715
TIME...MOT...LOC 1030Z 227DEG 39KT 3606 8728

$$

BOYD






Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 02, 2010, 05:38:13 AM
Thanks WKUweather I appreciate you keeping an eye on that one for me. The action is slowly picking back up here after a brief break. I would love to know what the maximum wind gust was out of that last cell that came through here.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 05:55:38 AM
Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TNC021-037-187-021130-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0068.100502T1053Z-100502T1130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
553 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 550 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 70 MPH WINDS AND
  QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR PEGRAM...
  OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...AND EXTENDED NORTH TO ASHLAND
  CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...BELLE MEADE...
  NASHVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 8667 3626 8664 3624 8659 3615 8655
      3582 8709 3585 8720 3598 8721 3599 8719
      3609 8717 3636 8684 3635 8682 3636 8678
      3638 8678 3640 8675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1051Z 227DEG 39KT 3607 8703

$$

BOYD


Replaces the Tornado Warning, still 70 mph winds is equivalent to an EF-0 tornado.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 06:08:42 AM
Stuck my head out the door a minute ago... It is MUGGY outside... and that's at 6am.  Temps are still in the mid 70's, dewpoints so far haven't responded yet, and are still in the mid/upper 60s, but it feels closer to 80 outside. Keep in mind, this is in Huntsville.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 06:12:35 AM
Stuck my head out the door a minute ago... It is MUGGY outside... and that's at 6am.  Temps are still in the mid 70's, dewpoints so far haven't responded yet, and are still in the mid/upper 60s, but it feels closer to 80 outside. Keep in mind, this is in Huntsville.

Same here, feels great for 6 am...which is not a good thing. And Memphis is still very unstable too, just because we see this rain does not mean our severe threat is done for the day. We here in middle TN will have a storm risk all day long today too.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 06:13:09 AM
Thanks WKUweather I appreciate you keeping an eye on that one for me. The action is slowly picking back up here after a brief break. I would love to know what the maximum wind gust was out of that last cell that came through here.
You get any damage out of that one?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 02, 2010, 06:16:52 AM
-was awakened by the loudspeaker in my building announcing the TOR WRN in Davidson Co.-  o hai.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 02, 2010, 06:18:54 AM
Its just barely day light but I can see a bunch of limbs down nothing major that I can see. I will consider my self mighty lucky judging by what I've heard coming out of Mississippi. But man the flooding is getting real here water from a creek about 75 yards from my house that runs into the tennessee river getting awful close to the house. Another hour or so of this rain like this and it will be here i'm afraid. I feel like i'm on the coast in a hurricane or something this is crazy.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jilly on May 02, 2010, 06:20:52 AM
absolute deluge
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 06:21:51 AM
Its just barely day light but I can see a bunch of limbs down nothing major that I can see. I will consider my self mighty lucky judging by what I've heard coming out of Mississippi. But man the flooding is getting real here water from a creek about 75 yards from my house that runs into the tennessee river getting awful close to the house. Another hour or so of this rain like this and it will be here i'm afraid. I feel like i'm on the coast in a hurricane or something this is crazy.
Well look out, there are more storms firing in Arkie.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 02, 2010, 06:24:36 AM
More rain.  Just what we needed.   ::drowning::

Stay safe, everyone.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 02, 2010, 06:26:28 AM
74.7 here with a Dewpoint of 69.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: David on May 02, 2010, 06:29:04 AM
I want to SLEEP!!!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 06:29:24 AM
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/spe/201005021103.gif)

Front still way back in AR... It's gonna be another long day, folks.  
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jilly on May 02, 2010, 06:30:31 AM
MESSAGE DATE: MAY 1, 2010 1325Z TBNA...NASHVILLE TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...IS NOT OPERATIONAL AT THIS TIME. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED. && 04
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: David on May 02, 2010, 06:32:01 AM
sleep
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 06:33:42 AM
There is a little bit of good news..  There is a trof pushing off to the east, currently just to the west of a line from Clarksville, TN to Henderson, TN.  This is providing some forcing for the storms moving through middle TN currently, and behind it, while there are more storms, nothing looks bad (severe) at the moment, as they are travelling into a slightly more stable airmass.

Quick look at the satellite, however, shows that the clouds present in the warm sector appear to be the high thin type (outside of current convective development), which could erode giving way to some sunshine.  This could be detrimental, and hopefully will not occur, however.  

Also, there is a CEM in effect for Davdison county;  Unless you absolutely have to get out, please stay off the roads today.

Everyone stay weather aware today, and be prepared to take action on a moments notice, should warnings be issued.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 06:37:23 AM
Prayers please.

I'm a flood victim.  My neighborhood is flooding, and my house is surrounded by water.  It's in the utility room, which is lower than the rest of the floor plan.  I was able to get the car out of the driveway.  But, now it won't start.  There's water in the floorboard.  Family had to come to my rescue.  And, the water is still rising.  I'm concerned about the car... it's electrical/hybrid.  The dash says the transmission is messed up.

On channel 4, they just mentioned that there was a "water rescue" in Bellevue.  They named the street... it's the road I live on.  But, I think it was further down.

My neighbor's daughter just called back and said that she thinks the water is getting up into the main floor now.  I'll be over to check it later.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 06:38:52 AM
Prayers please.

I'm a flood victim.  My neighborhood is flooding, and my house is surrounded by water.  It's in the utility room, which is lower than the rest of the floor plan.  I was able to get the car out of the driveway.  But, now it won't start.  There's water in the floorboard.  Family had to come to my rescue.  And, the water is still rising.  I'm concerned about the car... it's electrical/hybrid.  The dash says the transmission is messed up.

On channel 4, they just mentioned that there was a "water rescue" in Bellevue.  They named the street... it's the road I live on.  But, I think it was further down.

My neighbor's daughter just called back and said that she thinks the water is getting up into the main floor now.  I'll be over to check it later.
That makes me sick, i will pray for you Thundersnow.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 06:40:32 AM
Prayers please.

I'm a flood victim.  My neighborhood is flooding, and my house is surrounded by water.  It's in the utility room, which is lower than the rest of the floor plan.  I was able to get the car out of the driveway.  But, now it won't start.  There's water in the floorboard.  Family had to come to my rescue.  And, the water is still rising.  I'm concerned about the car... it's electrical/hybrid.  The dash says the transmission is messed up.

On channel 4, they just mentioned that there was a "water rescue" in Bellevue.  They named the street... it's the road I live on.  But, I think it was further down.

My neighbor's daughter just called back and said that she thinks the water is getting up into the main floor now.  I'll be over to check it later.

You have my thoughts and prayers as well.  Are you anywhere near the retirement community out past the ball fields off of highway 70?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 06:41:30 AM
SPC seems to agree with some of my thoughts, at least initially.  First bit of good news from the SPC so far this event.

(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0460.gif)
Quote
962
ACUS11 KWNS 021138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021137
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-021330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MIDDLE-ERN TN...ERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
KY...NWRN AL...NRN MS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...132...

VALID 021137Z - 021330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131...132...CONTINUES.

SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS WWS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ELONGATED/QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
BOW/LEWP FEATURES POSING DAMAGING WIND RISK.  WW MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED LOCALLY INTO SOME TN COUNTIES IN BETWEEN THESE WWS...NW
CSV...AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS WARRANT.

LESS-DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE INDICATES REMAINING POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES HAS SHIFTED TO MODE CONDITIONAL/SHORT-LIVED NATURE
ASSOCIATED LARGELY WITH QLCS/BOOKEND CIRCULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINING ACROSS THIS REGION.  WHILE SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE ON SPORADIC BASIS E OF WW 132...MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF MLCAPE TO NEAR
ZERO FROM W-E ACROSS ERN KY AND NERN TN...AND MORE ELEVATED/MRGL
NATURE TO BUOYANCY ABOVE INFLOW LAYER.  WHILE SFC DIURNAL HEATING
WILL INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER APPALACHIANS IN A FEW
HOURS...SOMEWHAT DRIER/LOWER-THETAE AIR MASS ACTS AS
COUNTERBALANCING INFLUENCE FOR GENERATING DEEP SBCAPE.
THEREFORE..OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY MOVES E
OF WW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN.

SVR POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST LONGER OVER MS...NWRN AL AND MIDDLE TN
WITHIN NERN FRINGES OF RELATIVELY RICHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
PW AOA 1.5 INCH AND MLCAPE ESTIMATED AT 500-1000 J/KG.  LOW-LEVEL
WIND PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO VEER SOMEWHAT OVER THIS REGION...BUT
GRADUALLY..AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS
AND BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-MORNING.  PRIMARY TN MCS IS LINKING WITH INITIALLY SEPARATE BAND
OF CONVECTION OVER NERN MS...APPARENTLY ALONG SAME GEN CONVERGENCE
ZONE...WHILE TRAILING BAND STILL POSES SOME SVR THREAT OVER NWRN MS.


FARTHER SW ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND NERN LA...REF FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 461.

..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2010
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 06:44:06 AM
You have my thoughts and prayers as well.  Are you anywhere near the retirement community out past the ball fields off of highway 70?

I'm off HWY 100.  My sister just said that HWY 70S is flooded around the Shoney's and the theater on the other side of the interstate.  Said it looked like 10 feet of water.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: David on May 02, 2010, 06:44:23 AM
The cell by centerville is looking nasty
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 06:44:59 AM
I'm off HWY 100.  My sister just said that HWY 70S is flooded around the Shoney's and the theater on the other side of the interstate.  Said it looked like 10 feet of water.

That's not good... I have very elderly grandparents in that area... Sounds like I need to make some phone calls.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 06:46:39 AM
That's not good... I have very elderly grandparents in that area... Sounds like I need to make some phone calls.

The soccer field over there is long gone, I'm sure.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 02, 2010, 06:46:46 AM
The cell by centerville is looking nasty
was just about to say the same thing - looks like some rotation as it gets ready to move into Franklin area.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: David on May 02, 2010, 06:47:22 AM
this cell is getting stronger
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Beth on May 02, 2010, 06:52:51 AM
The soccer field over there is long gone, I'm sure.
That soccer field goes underwater when its not flood warnings. Never understood why they ever built that there. I am so sorry about your flooding problems, Thundersnow. I lived in Bellevue at one time by the baseball fields close to west Harpeth and it would flood too. Stay safe!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 06:56:35 AM
The soccer field over there is long gone, I'm sure.

Yeah, the disturbing part is they live in the area directly behind that area, and with your description of the shoneys/theater area, being close to the same elevation as they are behind the field, has me concerned.. I have put in a request to call and check on them with my family in west nashville, so we'll see what comes of it.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 07:00:08 AM
Yeah, the disturbing part is they live in the area directly behind that area, and with your description of the shoneys/theater area, being close to the same elevation as they are behind the field, has me concerned.. I have put in a request to call and check on them with my family in west nashville, so we'll see what comes of it.

My sister said that 70S is completely covered there, and the flood waters are even around the Mapco station... so, around the Karate studio there, I'm sure... everything.

Also, HWY 100 is baracaded... impassible.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 07:11:18 AM
My sister said that 70S is completely covered there, and the flood waters are even around the Mapco station... so, around the Karate studio there, I'm sure... everything.

Also, HWY 100 is baracaded... impassible.



If the waters are that high, I'm sure there's at LEAST water in their yard, as the mapco station and the karate studio/etc is slightly higher elevation than they are.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 07:14:33 AM
And now water main breaks in Brentwood and this could last several days...talk about bad luck.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 07:19:53 AM
One of my mom's friends told us about damage in Hendersonville (home damage, tree damage, etc.) in that area...WSMV just mentioned it and that is why I chose to post it now. Didn't want to post false information so waited til one of the TV stations reported it.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 07:21:40 AM
One of my mom's friends told us about damage in Hendersonville (home damage, tree damage, etc.) in that area...WSMV just mentioned it and that is why I chose to post it now. Didn't want to post false information so waited til one of the TV stations reported it.

This has been something I've been wondering about... I've seen a couple reports but they weren't from the NWS.  I would expect that it would be from straight line wind damage, but we won't know for sure until it's surveyed..  This report was from the same storm cell, although on the southern flank.
Quote
OHX: 5 E Nashville [Davidson Co, TN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E50.00 MPH at 06:22 AM CDT -- spotter reported winds in excess of 50 mph in hermitage.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 07:23:03 AM
This has been something I've been wondering about... I've seen a couple reports but they weren't from the NWS.  I would expect that it would be from straight line wind damage, but we won't know for sure until it's surveyed..  This report was from the same storm cell, although on the southern flank.

Yep, from the way I hear...some think tornado some think straight line wind damage. Either way, it sounds like heavy damage nonetheless.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 07:30:40 AM
My sister said that 70S is completely covered there, and the flood waters are even around the Mapco station... so, around the Karate studio there, I'm sure... everything.

Also, HWY 100 is baracaded... impassible.



Thank you for providing this information, even though you are a flooding victim yourself.  This information is invaluable to myself and my parents in looking after my grandparents who are unable to look after themselves currently.  Mucho Kudos.   ::bacon::

Also, I hope and pray the waters recede for you very soon!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 02, 2010, 07:34:21 AM
Flash flooding in east Nashville.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 07:37:12 AM
Looks as though forcing is becoming more evident in N/CNTRL MS as the secondary line is now overtaking the first line.  So far, only one SVR warning on that newly congealed line, but I expect as daytime heating begins to increase slowly over the next few hours, things will begin to flare up.  Hopefully non-tornadic, but no way to tell until then.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 07:38:05 AM
Thank you for providing this information, even though you are a flooding victim yourself.  This information is invaluable to myself and my parents in looking after my grandparents who are unable to look after themselves currently.  Mucho Kudos.   ::bacon::

Also, I hope and pray the waters recede for you very soon!

If you're familiar with the area, I'm now at my grandmother's condo in River Plantation.  The flood water is now over Sawyer Brown Road in front of her condo.  Cars are turning around.  They'll need to block it off soon.  That water was not there when we came through 2 hours ago.

It's still rising.  I'm fearful of how bad this gets.  And, the heavy rain still continues to fall.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 02, 2010, 07:38:25 AM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 021236
SVROHX
TNC037-165-169-189-021300-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0073.100502T1236Z-100502T1300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
736 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 735 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  LAKEWOOD...OR 8 MILES EAST OF NASHVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNT JULIET
  AND BELINDA CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8637 3619 8609 3607 8647 3610 8650
      3607 8652 3607 8654 3604 8656 3601 8666
      3620 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1236Z 239DEG 42KT 3617 8663

$$

BOYD








Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 07:40:36 AM
If you're familiar with the area, I'm now at my grandmother's condo in River Plantation.  The flood water is now over Sawyer Brown Road in front of her condo.  Cars are turning around.  They'll need to block it off soon.  That water was not there when we came through 2 hours ago.

It's still rising.  I'm fearful of how bad this gets.  And, the heavy rain still continues to fall.

Quite familiar with the area - I spent a lot of time out in Bellevue back in the day.  Hopefully the increased forcing will push all this through rather quickly and allow waters to begin to run off and recede..  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 07:43:26 AM
Seeing how much the water continues to rise where I am now... I dread what I find when I get back to the house.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 07:46:24 AM
New SWODY1:
(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20100502_1300_prt.gif)
(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1probotlk_20100502_1300_torn_prt.gif)
(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1probotlk_20100502_1300_wind_prt.gif)
(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1probotlk_20100502_1300_hail_prt.gif)

Quote
ACUS01 KWNS 021244  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 021242  
  
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0742 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010  
  
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z  
  
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST/TN VLY  
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/LWR GRT LKS...  
  
..SYNOPSIS  
  
POSITIVE TILT CNTRL STATES TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS MAIN  
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...NOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS...SHEARS  
NE ACROSS THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS TO THE ERN GRT LKS.  A LWR LATITUDE  
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NRN MEXICO SHOULD ALSO SHEAR NEWD...WITH  
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS GLANCING THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS.  
ELSEWHERE...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL PLNS...ON  
S SIDE OF MB/ONT UPR LOW.    
  
AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW WITH CNTRL PLNS IMPULSE WILL ELONGATE NEWD  
FROM IND INTO SW QUE BY THIS EVE AS TRAILING CDFNT MOVES E ACROSS  
THE UPR OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS.  THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY SQLN/RAIN  
BAND LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN THE TN VLY.  FARTHER S...LOW LVL  
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY OVER ERN TN/ERN MS AND  
AL...AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT OVER LA/WRN MS.  
  
..UPR TN VLY/SRN APPALACHIANS TO CNTRL GULF CST  
  
AFOREMENTIONED PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN  
FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS FROM ERN KY/TN SSW INTO ERN MS/AL AND  
NW GA TODAY/TONIGHT.  WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE  
SETUP EXPECTED /DEEP...STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSW FLOW AND  
PW APPROACHING 2.00 INCHES/...ADDITION OF SFC HEATING TO THE WEAKLY  
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR  
STORM/SUPERCELL ECHO TRAINING.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL FOSTER A  
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED THREAT FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND SMALL SCALE BOWS  
WITH DMGG WIND...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN.  
  
..MID ATLANTIC/NERN STATES  
  
STRONG/BROAD SSWLY LLJ AHEAD OF UPR SYSTEM SHEARING NE TOWARD THE  
LWR GRT LKS WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.  
TODAY...WITH PW RANGING FROM 1.50 TO NEARLY 2.00 INCHES AND SFC DEW  
POINTS IN THE 60S F.  LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE  
WEAK...AND CLOUDS/LOW LVL OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN THE OH  
VLY WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION.  BUT WITH AT LEAST  
1000-1500 J/KG OF WEAKLY-CAPPED SBCAPE EXPECTED OVER MD/PA/NY...AND  
50-70 KT WSWLY MID LVL FLOW...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW  
LOOSELY-ORGANIZED BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS.  
THESE COULD YIELD HAIL/DMGG WIND AND...GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LVL  
MESOSCALE CONDITIONS...A COUPLE TORNADOES.    
  
..CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY  
  
RELATIVELY COLD MID-LVL TEMPERATURES /MINUS 22-MINUS 24 C AT 500 MB/  
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL PLNS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT NOW OVER  
SD.  CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...STRONG HEATING...AND MODEST  
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL MULTICELL TSTMS FROM ERN CO  
EWD INTO PARTS OF IA/MO.  STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST  
THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.  
  
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 05/02/2010
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 02, 2010, 07:51:11 AM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 021249
SVROHX
TNC037-149-187-021315-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0074.100502T1249Z-100502T1315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
749 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 744 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  FRANKLIN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...NASHVILLE
  AND FRANKLIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 8673 3604 8646 3588 8699 3603 8711
      3605 8708 3605 8704 3609 8704
TIME...MOT...LOC 1247Z 239DEG 42KT 3600 8695

$$

BOYD

WWWW

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 02, 2010, 07:52:31 AM
tvs markers showing up on storm near franklin and nashville
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 07:52:41 AM
Just one right after the other...:-\

As much as I like severe weather, I hate the destruction that comes with it.

TS, my prayers are with you and hope things turn out as good as they can.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 02, 2010, 07:54:28 AM
The line appears to be stalling. Not good.

We have waist deep water in the alley behind my house anndurif the heaviest rain in the first storm, manhole covers were popping up.

Un real
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 07:54:39 AM
We're about 10 degrees warmer, and dewpoints a bit higher...eegads this rain...even if we get ZERO tornado warnings, this is going to be a horrific day.

Praying for the best today.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 07:56:08 AM
The line appears to be stalling. Not good.

We have waist deep water in the alley behind my house anndurif the heaviest rain in the first storm, manhole covers were popping up.

Un real

The trof axis has stalled out due to the high pressure to the east strengthening a little.  This should move along a little later today as the high pressure wanes again.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 07:57:15 AM
It actually looks as the rain is moving backwards in mississippi. I have been lucky throughout this storm. Only about two inches of rain in the bucket.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 07:57:51 AM
It actually looks as the rain is moving backwards in mississippi. I have been lucky throughout this storm. Only about two inches of rain in the bucket.

No doubt.  I've been in contact with my parents who have had well over a foot of rain in the past 24 hours.  Sheesh.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 08:00:16 AM
No doubt.  I've been in contact with my parents who have had well over a foot of rain in the past 24 hours.  Sheesh.
So the rain is moving backwards?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 08:02:44 AM
So the rain is moving backwards?

Please pay attention to the context of the replies.  I was saying No Doubt to his being lucky about getting rain.

EDIT: To answer your question - it's not moving "backwards", but the trof is tilting, which is causing the rain to backbuild further west and float northwards.  It would appear to move backwards, but in reality, it's following the flow and boundaries.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 08:02:59 AM
Just got a report from my parents in nashville that "I 40 east bound near TSU is under water"
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 08:04:40 AM
Just got a report from my parents in nashville that "I 40 east bound near TSU is under water"
How much rain have you gotten out of this system.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 08:05:24 AM
How much rain have you gotten out of this system.

Less than 2" here in Huntsville.  If I had to guess, closer to about 1" so far.  Our big rains happen today, though.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 08:06:25 AM
Line is trying to bow out in a couple of places....actually about four if you look at the whole line.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 08:07:16 AM
If the front ever starts to move, its has just stalled out and the rain is moving over the same areas from. Savannah to perry county to Nashville.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 08:07:20 AM
TDOT cameras showing I-440 E of West End flooded
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 02, 2010, 08:07:42 AM
Radar estimated totals on radar scope for the last hour in the 3-4 in range from fairview to downtown.

Wow
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 08:13:42 AM
Radar estimated totals on radar scope for the last hour in the 3-4 in range from fairview to downtown.

Wow

That alone, not considering the foot of rain we've already got, is enough to cause localized flooding in itself.

This is historic.  It hasn't begun to sink in what I've got to deal with in the coming days.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 08:13:59 AM
Correction, i have seen 4-5 inches of rain. I just checked the storm total. Nothing compared to flooding any where else. ::faint::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Willywee on May 02, 2010, 08:18:34 AM
West End of Nashville is a raging river..
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 08:19:22 AM
Okay, a couple of meso-scale concerns:

1) With the trof stalling out and tilting ESE, I am concerned that this could cause winds to once again become backed. If this is the case, the tornado threat would once again be a major cause for concern, rather than a secondary one to the flooding.

2) Supercell training - This is becoming more of a concern with lack of forcing.  Not only will this continue to exacerbate the flooding currently occurring, but each cell will bring more severe weather to the same areas over and over.  

3) Capping inversion to the S weakening due to diabetic heating will cause more cells to develop and move N/NE *IF* the winds remain directional from the SSW.  (dependent of course on #1 above)

These are my main mesoscale concerns so far...  I hope that none of the above actually happen.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jilly on May 02, 2010, 08:22:38 AM
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/news-2-storm-chaser
Bellevue

((thundersnow)) I'm so sorry.

Charlotte PK in W Nashville is underwater.

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/151/westnashviller.jpg
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 02, 2010, 08:22:53 AM
I've been out checking things out from the storm this morning and talking to people who live near by. At my house we have several trees down but the main worry is water at my door step. Everyone I've talked to who lives near by has trees down on there property one said he saw a small funnel hanging just above the ground 300 yards from his house. No real structural damage though at least from those I've talked to. The worst thing right now is that I have talked to several people with water in their houses and vehicles, my neighbor has water about 3 feet up the outside wall of their house. Its still raining hard here, we need a break bad. Fire department and police have been driving up and down my road all morning and have got most the roads in this area shut down due to down trees and flooding. It's a bad situation here but I know its worse in other places so I'm thankful for what we have here and praying for all those affected by this storm.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2010, 08:24:00 AM
WMC this morning is reporting 2 fatalities in Benton County, MS...1 fatality in Hardeman County, TN...and 1 fatality in Lafayette County, MS...all from apparent overnight tornadoes. No damage pictures available yet from either scene...unclear on any additional numbers of missing/injuries...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 08:27:50 AM
Macon County never really has that big of trouble with flooding, we have never had flooding problems since moving here, but that changed today.

A small creek is starting to flow over its banks down the road and even at the end of our road, water is flowing over and going into a field.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 08:29:30 AM

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/151/westnashviller.jpg


That is literally right up the street from my parents house.  The building directly in front is Ollie's garage which sits at the corner of American road and Charlotte.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 08:34:44 AM
I learned the term flash flooding today and will never do that again...no matter where you live, if you do not have to get out, don't.

In 10 minutes the road goes from having "some water on it" to completely flooded, and this occurred in more than one spot.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 08:38:13 AM
THIS is why you DO NOT drive through water covered roads... even if it appears to be a couple of inches.

(http://hphotos-sjc1.fbcdn.net/hs306.snc3/28908_1446962059210_1387946771_1251937_2130216_n.jpg)

This photo is from the TN flooding, in Jackson.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 08:45:25 AM
Sawyer Brown Road in River Plantation is now closed and impassible.  Water continues to rise.  There's a car that stalled out with water up to the hood (knew that would happen eventually with the folks still trying to go through there).  Looks like water is close to getting into the condos across the street now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ccountz on May 02, 2010, 08:47:13 AM
Sawyer Brown Road in River Plantation is now closed and impassible.  Water continues to rise.  There's a car that stalled out with water up to the hood (knew that would happen eventually with the folks still trying to go through there).  Looks like water is close to getting into the condos across the street now.

Has the area from OHB to Natchez Trace been closed at any point?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 08:48:48 AM
For those on facebook, check out this group:

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=115531931813861

There are over 650 photos of flooding.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 02, 2010, 08:51:42 AM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 021349
SVROHX
TNC027-087-111-159-169-021430-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0076.100502T1349Z-100502T1430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
849 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN SMITH COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  CLAY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN MACON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 849 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  RED BOILING SPRINGS...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF LAFAYETTE...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RED BOILING SPRINGS BY 900 AM CDT...
  CELINA BY 920 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8564 3662 8542 3652 8537 3651 8538
      3650 8540 3651 8541 3649 8545 3630 8608
      3646 8617 3663 8571
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 247DEG 50KT 3642 8600

$$
JBW/31






Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 08:52:47 AM
Scottsville Rd. (one of the main roads in Lafayette) is closed and high water rescues are under way...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 08:53:58 AM
{{{{{{TS}}}}}}}}

Praying for the best...for you, your family..and the many people affected by this storm...

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 08:54:42 AM
Well, inevitably, my Grandparents in Bellevue are getting water coming up to their house now, and police will not let anyone into the neighborhood... Please pray for them, as they are not able to care for themselves, and nobody can get in now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 08:58:30 AM
Well, inevitably, my Grandparents in Bellevue are getting water coming up to their house now, and police will not let anyone into the neighborhood... Please pray for them, as they are not able to care for themselves, and nobody can get in now.

You got it.

Will the police do well-checks?  Or will they have to wait for boats too?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 02, 2010, 08:59:35 AM
Quote
WUUS54 KOHX 021358
SVROHX
TNC037-149-159-165-169-187-189-021445-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0077.100502T1358Z-100502T1445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  WEST CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 857 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OAK HILL...OR 9
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF NASHVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL HILL BY 905 AM CDT...
  BELINDA CITY...MOUNT JULIET...AND GREEN HILL BY 910 AM CDT...
  LEBANON BY 925 AM CDT...
  HARTSVILLE BY 940 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3645 8617 3622 8603 3596 8672 3612 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1356Z 242DEG 39KT 3608 8666

$$
JBW/31






Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 09:00:12 AM
You got it.

Will the police do well-checks?  Or will they have to wait for boats too?

No idea...  I would hope they will..
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 02, 2010, 09:00:29 AM
You got it.

Will the police do well-checks?  Or will they have to wait for boats too?


Toast, they are in my thoughts/prayers as well, I hope the police can check on them
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 09:02:27 AM

Toast, they are in my thoughts/prayers as well, I hope the police can check on them

Me too.  That particular subdivision is an assisted living subdivision, so hopefully they are going to look into them..
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 09:02:48 AM
Has anyone heard if Gov. Bredesen has activated the National Guard?  I heard the National Guard was at some places but I haven't heard Bredesen's name uttered once on the news, only mayor's names.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jilly on May 02, 2010, 09:03:57 AM
No idea...  I would hope they will..

Can you search qrz.com for hams in 37221? Maybe an op is up the street from them or something?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 09:04:38 AM
Can you search qrz.com for hams in 37221? Maybe an op is up the street from them or something?

Perhaps, but I can't reach them from my location..  unless you'd be willing to do a relay

EDIT: nevermind... no hams out that way that are already in the area.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Timothy on May 02, 2010, 09:06:07 AM
TVS/rotation showing up on Davidson/Sumner county cell
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 09:07:03 AM
Has the area from OHB to Natchez Trace been closed at any point?

Yes.  HWY 100 is closed and flooded.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Crockett on May 02, 2010, 09:08:36 AM
Photo I saw posted elsewhere of the Lebanon town square. My apologies if it has already been posted, but I don't think it has.

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v411/ericleonard/30986_391743933443_49293983443_3949.jpg)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 09:09:24 AM
The water continues to rise at my grandmother's condo.  It's up off the street and coming up the grassy area... surrounding the fire hydrant and trees planted on the side now.  Still a ways till it gets quite this high.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jilly on May 02, 2010, 09:24:43 AM
Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TNC043-081-101-135-181-187-021445-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0078.100502T1421Z-100502T1445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
921 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTH CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 921 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
  HOHENWALD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 105 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CENTERVILLE BY 930 AM CDT...
  FAIRVIEW BY 940 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8716 3605 8714 3594 8702 3584 8716
      3585 8721 3580 8722 3542 8773 3555 8788
TIME...MOT...LOC 1421Z 227DEG 89KT 3560 8765

$$
JBW/31
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 09:26:18 AM
Well, *SOME* good news...

Most of the SPC outlined area today has now been socked in with fairly thick cloud cover.  This should help reinforce the capping to the south, and assist in preventing more widespread instability.  HOWEVER, it is unclear at this time if the clouds will burn off or remain, and whether or not dry slotting develops downstream.  If either occurs, things could get REALLY bad later, as the atmosphere is already quite unstable.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 09:28:27 AM
Quote
TOMPKINSVILLE    MONROE    KY   3670    8569    POSSIBLE TORNADO. SEVERAL TRESS AND POWERLINES DOWN IN THE AREA OF THE COURTHOUSE. REPORTS OF SEVERAL BARNS DAMAGED IN THE COUNTY. (LMK)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 09:34:21 AM
Several inches of water in the NC5 newsroom...which is in the basement
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 09:39:13 AM
I was just told that we are completely stranded now.  All streets leading in and out of our part of River Plantation in Bellevue is flooded.  The only way out of here now is by boat.

The car that originally stalled in the water on the street out front now has water halfway up its windshield.

Condos are flooding, and people are seeking refuge in a clubhouse.

Pray for everyone in this area.

I shudder to think about my house now, which flooded comparatively early.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: JC on May 02, 2010, 09:51:53 AM
I overlook Cool Springs on the Carothers side of 65. I have been able to see rain on the other side of 65 since about 6 am with minimal movement to the east. Still just sporadic sprinkles on this side of 65.


Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WXHD on May 02, 2010, 09:54:17 AM
my parents home in green hills is flooded. They've had to move to the second floor. This is nuts
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 09:56:46 AM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
954 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EAST CENTRAL HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 954 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF
  SPRING HILL...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLUMBIA...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SPRING HILL BY 1000 AM CDT...
  FRANKLIN BY 1005 AM CDT...
  BRENTWOOD BY 1010 AM CDT...

I don't know how they can say these things are moving,...because..they aren't.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 02, 2010, 09:57:00 AM
I overlook Cool Springs on the Carothers side of 65. I have been able to see rain on the other side of 65 since about 6 am with minimal movement to the east. Still just sporadic sprinkles on this side of 65.
This is one time I am glad to be one the dry side of the rain line (for now)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Beth on May 02, 2010, 09:58:16 AM
Is any one looking at Channel 2 news and the poor guy that is stuck on Eaton's creek rd. in Joelton? He tried to drive through the water and got washed away. Fire Deptment can't get to him. Stuck on the other side of the water and has been in the water for about a hour. Scary
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 09:59:06 AM
Is any one looking at Channel 2 news and the poor guy that is stuck on Eaton's creek rd. in Joelton? He tried to drive through the water and got washed away. Fire Deptment can't get to him. Stuck on the other side of the water and has been in the water for about a hour. Scary

Yep, watching it too...very sad situation.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 02, 2010, 09:59:38 AM
Is any one looking at Channel 2 news and the poor guy that is stuck on Eaton's creek rd. in Joelton? He tried to drive through the water and got washed away. Fire Deptment can't get to him. Stuck on the other side of the water and has been in the water for about a hour. Scary
yeah, I'm watching the live UStream of it now http://www.ustream.tv/channel/news-2-storm-chaser (http://www.ustream.tv/channel/news-2-storm-chaser)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 10:02:15 AM
WSMV reports all routes into and out of Nashville to/from Bellevue are closed.  Basically Bellevue is now isloated from the rest of the city.

Also, my parents lost internet a bit ago and hasn't come back.

EDIT: Internet just came back...lol
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 02, 2010, 10:04:26 AM
Cleveland park in east nashvilel is a disaster area. Cars and houses submerged.

Ellington pkwy under 6-8 feet of rushing water. I had to rescue a guy cause 911 is a busy signal
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 02, 2010, 10:08:20 AM
I don't know how they can say these things are moving,...because..they aren't.

The cells are moving individually but training one right after another in the same areas.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 10:13:05 AM
The cells are moving individually but training one right after another in the same areas.

Yeah...that was one of those "things you know and understand after you type" moments...

 ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 02, 2010, 10:13:34 AM
Perry County is a complete disaster area. It is unreal what is going on right now. All of my neighbors houses are completely flooded, a trailor down the road has been washed away by a creek. Trees are down everywhere all the roads are submerged. City water pipes are busting taking out peoples water our power has been going on and off all morning the water is up in everyone in my communities houses. I know it is like this everywhere, this is unreal.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 02, 2010, 10:16:01 AM
The cells are moving individually but training one right after another in the same areas.

Yup, that's exactly what's happening. I have watched the main line fluctuate around the western Maury County border while individual impulses ride along it since I woke up at 6:30, and now, nearly four hours later, it is still in that general vicinity.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 02, 2010, 10:19:47 AM
My girlfriend's uncle is now stuck in his house in Kingston Springs. The water is approaching the house, backed up from the harpeth, but by the end of the day, he will probably have water backed up into the house.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 10:20:55 AM
Yup, that's exactly what's happening. I have watched the main line fluctuate around the western Maury County border while individual impulses ride along it since I woke up at 6:30, and now, nearly four hours later, it is still in that general vicinity.

Getting reports of people stranded on rooftops in my parents neighborhood... This isn't going well at all.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Beth on May 02, 2010, 10:22:54 AM
They just rescued my bestfriend's sister and family out of their house on Morton Mill Rd. in Bellevue. Had to do it by boat.  She sent me pic by cell phone. So unreal. :(
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 02, 2010, 10:24:29 AM
There are a few low-lying spots in Clarksville that had some standing water last night - I'm sure they're going to be flooded badly today.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 10:27:12 AM
Got a report that a house down by Howell Rd. (which is walking distant from my house), is surrounded by water. We are thinking it is the house of someone we know, it floods easily when we have decent rains...but this is by far worse than decent flooding and we are almost certain it is them.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: David on May 02, 2010, 10:28:00 AM
My wifes parents have water in there house and they are being evacuated. West Nashville Morrow road area
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Willywee on May 02, 2010, 10:29:57 AM
WSMV reporting Vanderbilt Children's Hospital has fire in the basement and some flooding.  This could cause loss of electricity and losing oxygen to patients.  Prayers to them  :(
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 10:32:06 AM
Finally seeing the line shift east a bit...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 10:33:57 AM
Finally seeing the line shift east a bit...

Yes, was just about to post about that.  If any good news can come out right now, it would be that the front is moving again.. It's almost to the MS river.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 10:35:53 AM
Yes, was just about to post about that.  If any good news can come out right now, it would be that the front is moving again.. It's almost to the MS river.

But still will be a slow mover so we will be in this rain for quite some time.

They are evacuating a nursing home in Red Boiling Springs, they are using the county buses to transport the residents. Not sure where they are taking them, maybe the armory?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Woodvegas on May 02, 2010, 10:38:56 AM
Not sure if this has already been posted...
TEMA has requested assistance from the Tennessee Army National Guard.
http://www.tnema.org/news/tema/
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Susan in Macon on May 02, 2010, 10:40:15 AM
But still will be a slow mover so we will be in this rain for quite some time.

They are evacuating a nursing home in Red Boiling Springs, they are using the county buses to transport the residents. Not sure where they are taking them, maybe the armory?

Where are you getting your info?  I am not am home and without my scanner so I get nothing, especially since hubby left early this morning.

Ellington Dr in Lafayette is closed, Scottsville Rd was open not too long ago but has HIgh water signs out.  I am keeping a very close eye on the creek next to my parents house.... it was in the road not too long ago but has gone down some.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 02, 2010, 10:40:40 AM
I hope there's no looting. The police are covered... any civil disturbances won't be able to be stopped.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: JC on May 02, 2010, 10:41:32 AM
Finally seeing the line shift east a bit...

Yup. Just started raining this side of 65 in Franklin. Been bone dry.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 10:43:38 AM
Where are you getting your info?  I am not am home and without my scanner so I get nothing, especially since hubby left early this morning.

Ellington Dr in Lafayette is closed, Scottsville Rd was open not too long ago but has HIgh water signs out.  I am keeping a very close eye on the creek next to my parents house.... it was in the road not too long ago but has gone down some.

One of our friends has a scanner and is getting the reports. And this rain is still streaming up, they may close Scottsville Rd. again as heavier rain is pushing in.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 10:44:20 AM
Quote
OHX issues Civil Emergency Message (CEM) for  Anderson, Bedford, Benton, Bledsoe, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Cannon, Carroll, Carter, Cheatham, Chester, Claiborne, Clay, Cocke, Coffee, Crockett, Cumberland, Davidson, De Kalb, Decatur, Dickson, Dyer, Fayette, Fentress, Franklin, Gibson, Giles, Grainger, Greene, Grundy, Hamblen, Hamilton, Hancock, Hardeman, Hardin, Hawkins, Haywood, Henderson, Henry, Hickman, Houston, Humphreys, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Lake, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Lewis, Lincoln, Loudon, Macon, Madison, Marion, Marshall, Maury, McMinn, McNairy, Meigs, Monroe, Montgomery, Moore, Morgan, Obion, Overton, Perry, Pickett, Polk, Putnam, Rhea, Roane, Robertson, Rutherford, Scott, Sequatchie, Sevier, Shelby, Smith, Stewart, Sullivan, Sumner, Tipton, Trousdale, Unicoi, Union, Van Buren, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Weakley, White, Williamson, Wilson [TN] till 12:00 PM GMT

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 /1142 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.

STATE EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ARE ADVISING THAT TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS
ON MANY INTERSTATE AND HIGHWAYS DUE TO FLOODING IN WEST AND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

LOCAL ROAD AND STATE HIGHWAY CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY LOW-
LYING AREA. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

MOTORISTS VIOLATING ROADBLOCKS OR ROAD CLOSURES ARE SURJECT TO
CITATION BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

$$
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 10:48:14 AM
Just got a report that they are taking the nursing home residents to the National Guard Armory in Lafayette...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ccountz on May 02, 2010, 10:51:08 AM
I hope there's no looting. The police are covered... any civil disturbances won't be able to be stopped.

What area of E. Nashville are you located?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 10:52:19 AM


That's the kind of thing that should be breaking through the TV right now....just got it on my phone...didn't get it on the radio.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 02, 2010, 10:58:34 AM
MRX has already put us under a river flood warning here for Chickamauga creek even though the first drop of rain has yet to fall:
Quote
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN, TN
919 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN, TN HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS ...

  SOUTH CHICKAMAUGA NEAR SOUTH CHICKAMAUGA CREEK @ CHICKAMAUGA TN
  AFFECTING CATOOSA AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
  EMORY RIVER AT OAKDALE TN AFFECTING MORGAN AND ROANE COUNTIES
  SEQUATCHIE RIVER NEAR WHITWELL TN AFFECTING BLEDSOE...MARION AND
  SEQUATCHIE COUNTIES

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS OCCURRING
DURING THE NIGHT.  RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE...AND
SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR.  THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL...AND IF THE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST DEATHS IN FLOODS OCCUR IN CARS! IF YOU COME TO A CLOSED OR
FLOODED ROAD, TURN AROUND! DON`T DROWN! FOR MORE DETAILS, STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO THAT CARRY
WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

GAC047-TNC065-030319-
/O.NEW.KMRX.FL.W.0010.100503T2230Z-100504T1912Z/
/CHKT1.1.ER.100503T2230Z.100504T0600Z.100504T1312Z.NO/
919 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN, TN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  THE SOUTH CHICKAMAUGA CREEK @ CHICKAMAUGA TN
* FROM MONDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.1 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND
  6 PM MONDAY AND CREST NEAR 18.5 FEET AROUND 2 AM TUESDAY. THE RIVER
  SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...WATER ACROSS MACK SMITH ROAD BEGINS TO IMPEDE
  TRAFFIC.  WEST CHICKAMAUGA CREEK OVERFLOWS ITS BANKS NEAR THE
  GEORGIA STATE LINE AND INUNDATES SEVERAL ROADS AND PROPERTIES IN
  THE AREA.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: toastido on May 02, 2010, 10:59:37 AM
That's the kind of thing that should be breaking through the TV right now....just got it on my phone...didn't get it on the radio.

It came out over weather radios here in Huntsville.. I think you have to program your radio to pick it up, but I agree about on TV... that's the only way to make sure everyone is aware..
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Woodvegas on May 02, 2010, 11:02:14 AM
It came out over weather radios here in Huntsville.. I think you have to program your radio to pick it up, but I agree about on TV... that's the only way to make sure everyone is aware..

I don't ever remember a "Civil Emergency Message" in TN before. Anyone else recall one?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 11:06:21 AM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT

* AT 1103 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  COLUMBIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SPRING HILL BY 1110 AM CDT...
  FRANKLIN BY 1120 AM CDT...
  NOLENSVILLE BY 1125 AM CDT...
  LA VERGNE AND SMYRNA BY 1130 AM CDT...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 11:09:28 AM
Civil Emergency Message just came across the weather radio...pretty eerie to hear.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: hrmc on May 02, 2010, 11:10:21 AM
sun trying to pop out here in coffee county tennessee around tullahoma. that cannot be good in this environment. I hope all are safe in rain aeas now.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 02, 2010, 11:13:41 AM
It came out over weather radios here in Huntsville.. I think you have to program your radio to pick it up, but I agree about on TV... that's the only way to make sure everyone is aware..

I did not get it on the radio here, but it is scrolling across the bottom of the screen in red on the TV.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jilly on May 02, 2010, 11:15:46 AM
channel 4 just showed a pic of I 40 near TSU - traffic stopped and water getting close to them.... then they cut away.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 02, 2010, 11:22:15 AM
Just started raining here, maybe its trying to move east a little.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 11:23:03 AM
None of the Nashville area TV stations are scrolling the Civil emergency message...I don't get that at all.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 11:25:36 AM
Just started raining here, maybe its trying to move east a little.

It is moving east...but ever so slowly. Nashville looks to stay on the heavy rain train well into this afternoon...and seeing the radar fill in down in MS doesn't help matters.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 11:26:01 AM
Another confirmed death in Davidson Co.  21 y/o..(WKRN)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 11:35:07 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0462.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...NWRN AL...MIDDLE TN...CNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...133...
   
   VALID 021615Z - 021715Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131...133...CONTINUES.
   
   AN ELONGATED ZONE OF DEEP...VERY MOIST CONVECTION...ROUGHLY 50-75 MI
   WIDE...STRETCHES FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF STATES...ARCING
   ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO SRN OH.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
   A PLUME OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...AOA 2 INCHES...COINCIDENT WITH
   STRONG LLJ.  IT APPEARS VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE COMMON ALONG THIS
   ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS SIGNIFICANT TRAINING
   WILL CONTINUE WITHIN OVERALL SLOW MOVING MCS COMPLEX.
   
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 11:35:55 AM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1134 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 1133 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NOLENSVILLE...OR
  7 MILES EAST OF FRANKLIN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LA VERGNE AND SMYRNA BY 1140 AM CDT...
  RURAL HILL BY 1145 AM CDT...
  LEBANON BY 1155 AM CDT...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 02, 2010, 11:36:13 AM
What area of E. Nashville are you located?

Cleveland/McFerrin Park

Was driving around and a man had collapsed outside of the fire station on meridian. he was either having a heart attack or asthma attack. had been waiting on ambulance, nothing. walked there knocked on the door. no one at fire dept. I called 911 and you can't get through. luckily a metro pd officer drove by and we stopped him.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 11:39:06 AM
I have to say though, thankfully this happened on the weekend when the majority of the people aren't working or kids aren't in schools. Think of the mayhem if this would have occurred tomorrow or something...at least we have that to be thankful for.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: JHart on May 02, 2010, 11:47:46 AM
Last few radar images show some discrete activity trying to flare up east of the main line... could this be a sign of eastward propogation?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 02, 2010, 11:58:31 AM
Looks like they are going with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Quote
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TNC003-015-027-031-035-037-041-049-051-055-061-087-099-103-111-
117-119-127-133-137-141-149-159-165-169-175-177-185-187-189-
022200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0134.100502T1700Z-100502T2200Z/

TN
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD              CANNON              CLAY
COFFEE               CUMBERLAND          DAVIDSON
DEKALB               FENTRESS            FRANKLIN
GILES                GRUNDY              JACKSON
LAWRENCE             LINCOLN             MACON
MARSHALL             MAURY               MOORE
OVERTON              PICKETT             PUTNAM
RUTHERFORD           SMITH               SUMNER
TROUSDALE            VAN BUREN           WARREN
WHITE                WILLIAMSON          WILSON
$$


ATTN...WFO...HUN...OHX...BMX..
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 12:03:42 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0134_radar.gif)

Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 134
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          NORTHWEST ALABAMA
          MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM NOON UNTIL 500 PM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
   NORTHWEST OF CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
   COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
   THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 131...WW 133...
   
   DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MS AND
   MIDDLE TN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VERY STRONG WINDS JUST
   ABOVE SURFACE...COMBINED WITH LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF ONGOING
   CONVECTION WILL PROMOTE BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING TORNADO
   THREAT AS WELL.
   
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 02, 2010, 12:09:55 PM
My girlfriend's uncle is now stuck in his house in Kingston Springs. The water is approaching the house, backed up from the harpeth, but by the end of the day, he will probably have water backed up into the house.

Well the water is now in the house and still rising, her parents are calling the authorities to see if anybody with a boat can go and get him.

We are now up to 84 degrees with a dewpoint of 65. I imagine the cap is very close to breaking here. The wind is howling outside.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 12:12:05 PM
Well the water is now in the house and still rising, her parents are calling the authorities to see if anybody with a boat can go and get him.

Will be praying for the best...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: David on May 02, 2010, 12:19:57 PM
is anyone else having a problem getting GR to update?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 12:23:00 PM
is anyone else having a problem getting GR to update?

yessiree....


School closings are starting to come in as well...stay tuned to local media outlets.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 12:32:45 PM
Though it hasn't updated in a few minutes...this radar shot shows how much still has to come through...



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 12:34:17 PM
Quote
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FOR HICKMAN CO

 WOUS44 KOHX 021657CEMOHXTNC081-031200-URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDCIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGETENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEERELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE HICKMANCOUNTY MAYOR...STEVE GREGORY.

HICKMAN COUNTY IS IN A FLOOD EMERGENCY.THERE IS NO POWER IN THE COUNTY AND RADIO COMMUNICATIONS ARE OUT.THERE ARE THREE EMERGENCY SHELTERS AVAILABLE FOR THOSE AFFECTEDBY THE HISTORIC FLOOD. THE SHELTERS ARE BON AQUA METHODIST CHURCH...FAIRFIELD CHURCH OF CHRIST...AND THE CENTERVILLE CHURCH OF CHRIST.MANY ROADS ARE FLOODED WITH REPORTS OF MUD SLIDES. RESIDENTS AREASKED TO CONSERVE RESOURCES.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATESTINFORMATION.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 12:38:49 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1234 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME WEST
  CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY...OR 17 MILES EAST OF CENTERVILLE...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL NORTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY AT 1250 PM CDT
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Jilly on May 02, 2010, 12:42:41 PM
Where in Kingston Springs are they stuck?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 02, 2010, 12:45:52 PM
I just hope this rain doesn't park itself over Wolf Creek Dam. I just checked and its holding at 684ft, but the rain is moving that way.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Tom23 on May 02, 2010, 12:48:53 PM
How does flooding look for East TN?? I have seen the potential, but I want your opinions.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 12:52:51 PM
I am getting an OFFLINE msg for GRLevel3 now..poo...and Wolf Creek Dam...heavens, I hadn't even thought about that..

.  ::wow::



EDIT:...GRL3  ....up/down/up/down... 'sigh'
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 02, 2010, 12:54:42 PM
If wolf creek dam doesn't hold it would be Nashville's Katrina
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 12:56:45 PM
Im seeing extremely heavy rain right now, its starting to flood here in Lawrenceburg.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2010, 12:57:15 PM
We've had some significant localized flooding event in years past...but I'm not sure of any record of such a massive and widespread flooding event that is literally affecting half of the entire state...Memphis to Nashville and everywhere in-between.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: DocB on May 02, 2010, 12:57:26 PM
I am getting an OFFLINE msg for GRLevel3 now..poo...and Wolf Creek Dam...heavens, I hadn't even thought about that..

.  ::wow::

EDIT:...GRL3  ....up/down/up/down... 'sigh'
My GL3 is doing the same.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2010, 01:00:04 PM
Not sure if Curt is around...but the Loosahatchie at Arlington has hit a record crest it appears...outdoing the Christmas floods of 1987...
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=meg&gage=arlt1
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 01:03:54 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 120 PM CDT

* AT 100 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF
  NASHVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HENDERSONVILLE...LAKEWOOD AND GOODLETTSVILLE BY 115 PM CDT...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 01:04:25 PM
We are getting the most intense thunderstorm of the day right now...heavy rain too which is the last thing we need.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 01:05:42 PM
Flooding is getting more intenese in my front yard, very heavy rain.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Tom23 on May 02, 2010, 01:05:50 PM
We are getting the most intense thunderstorm of the day right now...heavy rain too which is the last thing we need.

Not good....
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 01:07:25 PM
Elective surgeries at Vanderbilt Children's Hosp. cancelled tomorrow...(WSMV)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Curt on May 02, 2010, 01:07:47 PM
Not sure if Curt is around...but the Loosahatchie at Arlington has hit a record crest it appears...outdoing the Christmas floods of 1987...
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=meg&gage=arlt1

Thanks Kevin, yes I can attest. I drove around this morning and I have never seen it this high as indicated by the hydrograph. Highway 70 in under several feet of water in Arlington from Paul Barrett Pkwy east past Kroger on the right. Freds was flooded along with several homes just to the north. 385 is still open to the north but the water is not far from the bridge. It should start receding over the next 12 hours or so, but the damage to business and homes is complete. This is the worst areal flooding I have ever witnessed in the greater Memphis area.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 01:09:37 PM
Wow man, you might have a moat in your own yard.
I do, neighbors yard has water all around it. Flooding across the street.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Tom23 on May 02, 2010, 01:12:12 PM
I do, neighbors yard has water all around it. Flooding across the street.

Dang.. this is a historic event that you all are experiencing folks, and its not a good experience like snow where you can go 'play' in it. Right now, we're praying for all the good reasons. A few years from now, we'll be saying, 'WOW, that actually happened?'
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2010, 01:13:13 PM
Thanks Kevin, yes I can attest. I drove around this morning and I have never seen it this high as indicated by the hydrograph. Highway 70 in under several feet of water in Arlington from Paul Barrett Pkwy east past Kroger on the right. Freds was flooded along with several homes just to the north. 385 is still open to the north but the water is not far from the bridge. It should start receding over the next 12 hours or so, but the damage to business and homes is complete. This is the worst areal flooding I have ever witnessed in the greater Memphis area.
Sounds very bad there...thanks.

Also...should be noted the South Fork Forked Deer in Jackson is just shy of major flood and should move into it shortly...likely a repeat of what is happening in Arlington.

If there is any good news in this area...the levee break in Millington is now under control and water is receding there. Still hearing about a levee break in the Trenton area continuing which is causing problems...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2010, 01:17:10 PM
Tipton County Schools will be closed Monday due to widespread flooding...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ccountz on May 02, 2010, 01:18:29 PM
Tipton County Schools will be closed Monday due to widespread flooding...

As is Williamson and Davidson County schools.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Tom23 on May 02, 2010, 01:19:31 PM
Schools probably won't be closed in my part, but they're off Tuesday. I don't want the problems that W/M TN are getting right now at all..
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: ultra mag on May 02, 2010, 01:23:15 PM
 Crockett county schools closed monday.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: hrmc on May 02, 2010, 01:29:21 PM
Where is Phil Bredesen in all this?? I mean he could at least address the State and send concern to the people. This is HORRID of him. I cannot beleive it. I salute all the EMS workers risking thier life right now. Stay safe. And Phil......come out come out wherever you are.  ::pondering::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on May 02, 2010, 01:31:15 PM
I don't ever remember a "Civil Emergency Message" in TN before. Anyone else recall one?

I've lived in Tennessee since 1976 and have never heard of one....it did pop-up on my Midland WMR-100....
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 01:31:43 PM
Where is Phil Bredesen in all this?? I mean he could at least address the State and send concern to the people. This is HORRID of him. I cannot beleive it. I salute all the EMS workers risking thier life right now. Stay safe. And Phil......come out come out wherever you are.  ::pondering::

He is making a speech at 2 pm...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: hrmc on May 02, 2010, 01:41:31 PM
I have lived here in Mid TN all my 46 years. I was 10 years old in 1974 and that is the last time I remember flooding this bad in this area. 1984 was nowhere close to the 1974 event. We had one event in Sept 1979 as the remnants of a hurricane came through and trained over the area but not anywhere close to theses amounts.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 02, 2010, 01:46:59 PM
corp of engineers has lakes flooding, but can't release water yet. sandbagging possible for downtown nashville. per wkrn
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 02, 2010, 01:47:24 PM
A few pics from out my back door:

(http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj14/eric_in_smyrna/DSC_0560.jpg)

(http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj14/eric_in_smyrna/DSC_0558.jpg)

(http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj14/eric_in_smyrna/DSC_0562.jpg)

(http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj14/eric_in_smyrna/DSC_0561.jpg)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 01:51:28 PM
There's only one thing left we can do...

http://www.bryancore.org/pdf/encore3.pdf


 ;D

You may be onto something there.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 02, 2010, 01:54:03 PM
I'm confused - If the river is at 51' and it's supposed to rise to 52' .... is that 1' of water depth?  Looks like 6' until the river overflows onto Riverside downtown so if it just rises 1' extra, then it's no big deal.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2010, 01:59:01 PM
just got out of bed, after a long night of storm chasing. yes the south forked deer river is about to go over. already major flooding in south jackson hwy 45. plum shut down there
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 02, 2010, 01:59:22 PM
Just went on 70; it is closed east of the 385 bridge.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 02:00:27 PM
1st floor of Centennial Medical Center under 3' of water....(WKRN)

Army Corps. of Eng. advising Metro to sandbag 1st Ave (WKRN)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Tom23 on May 02, 2010, 02:01:46 PM
He is making a speech at 2 pm...

What station is that on??? Can't find it anywhere!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 02:02:28 PM
What station is that on??? Can't find it anywhere!

Should be shown on any of the 4 stations, probably running behind, every speech is.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Tom23 on May 02, 2010, 02:06:15 PM
Should be shown on any of the 4 stations, probably running behind, every speech is.

Ok thanks!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: weatherowl on May 02, 2010, 02:08:34 PM
I am helping a friend who is traveling home and bypassing Nashville.  Can anyone tell me if Hwy. 64 east of Savannah is open or closed?  Also any other parts of Hwy. 64?  I much appreciate the help. 
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 02:09:50 PM
Highway 64 in Lawrence County is A okay.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 02:11:05 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
209 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  JACKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN OVERTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 207 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CARTHAGE...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GAINESBORO BY 215 PM CDT...
  CELINA BY 225 PM CDT...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 02:13:08 PM
I am helping a friend who is traveling home and bypassing Nashville.  Can anyone tell me if Hwy. 64 east of Savannah is open or closed?  Also any other parts of Hwy. 64?  I much appreciate the help. 

HWY 64 between Olivehill and Savannah is closed...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 02:22:40 PM
News crews can't even get to the Governor's speech...it's being u-streamed..

YIKES!!
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 02, 2010, 02:24:37 PM
Schools closed here and I'm sure many more to come. Not surprised at all since I have a stream that has appeared on one side of my yard, and the creek in my backyard about 100 feet away is out of it's banks, the highest I've seen it.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 02:37:56 PM
http://www.tennessean.com/article/20100502/GALLATIN01/100502018/2124/gallatin/Update++Two+teenagers+missing+in+Station+Camp+Creek

 :(
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 02:39:58 PM
This is just the beginning of a very sad week, I suspect.   :'(
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Uncle Nasty on May 02, 2010, 03:00:13 PM
The most amazing thing about all the rain is we haven't seen the 1st raindrop in Chattanooga. Areas within 100 miles have been getting hammered for 2 days and we've had great weather to golf or do outdoor work in.

Clouds have increased here and watches are out but at this point not a drop of rain.

Hope everyone in the flooded areas stay safe.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 03:00:51 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0465.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134...
   
   VALID 021928Z - 022030Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134
   CONTINUES.
   
   LARGE SLOW-MOVING MCS-LIKE BAND OF CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY LIFTING
   NNEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES AND MIDDLE TN VALLEY.  WITHIN
   THIS BROADER ZONE OF ACTIVITY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONGER UPDRAFTS
   OCCASIONALLY EVOLVE AND RACE NEWD WITHIN VERY MOIST PLUME.  OVER THE
   LAST HOUR OR SO A VERY WELL DEFINED MCV HAS EVOLVED ALONG THE TN/KY
   BORDER.  THIS FEATURE IS STRENGTHENING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
   SUSTAINED ORGANIZED BOW STRUCTURES AS IT RACES NEWD INTO KY.  WITH
   LLJ EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING
   IT APPEARS CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF STATES COULD BECOME LESS
   FOCUSED AND POSSIBLY WANE IN INTENSITY AS DEEP CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
   NWD.
   
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 02, 2010, 03:16:19 PM
From Putnam's EMA office

Quote
Update on our crew that went to Sumner County. There are three people that are possibly missing but the water is still two swift and dangerous to search in that area. They are currently searching a subdivision of about 25 houses that is completely surrounded by water.

This was posted 30 minutes ago and is in the Craigfont area of Gallatin...

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Crockett on May 02, 2010, 03:26:18 PM
I never thought Tennessee would experience widespread flooding like we've seen the past two days. It has been a historic weekend for sure. The weird thing is, while we had plenty of rain on the Plateau yesterday, we didn't have anything like what areas just a hundred miles or so west of us had, and we haven't had any rain today...I got up at 9 a.m. and saw the leading line of the rain on the east side of the Nashville area and assumed it would be here in a couple or three hours. At 2 p.m., the leading line was still in the same place. Amazing how that boundary just stalled and trained torrential rain on such a relatively small area most of the day.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 03:43:16 PM
Quote
Historical Record Rainfall Event For Middle TN
 
Historical Record Rainfall Event For Middle TN
Storm total rainfall at Nashville International Airport has reached 13.00 inches as of 3PM CDT.
This surpasses the previous two day total of 6.68 inches set on 9/13 and 9/14, 1979 due to the remnants of Hurricane Fredrick.
James LaRosa/Michael Davis
NWS Nashville, TN

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 03:46:30 PM
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/nast1_hg.png)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 03:46:53 PM
Quick update... we were evacuated from my grandmother's condo.  The water was getting closer, and we got out while we could.  

The stalled out car in front of the condo was eventually completely submerged.  I'm pretty sure my house and car are history.  Once the water recedes, I'll have to see what I can salvage.  The channel 4 coverage on Beech Bend Drive is from my neighborhood.  My street runs into it.

We are safe at a relative's house now... on much higher ground.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 02, 2010, 03:48:17 PM
Quick update... we were evacuated from my grandmother's condo.  The water was getting closer, and we got out while we could.  

The stalled out car in front of the condo was eventually completely submerged.  I'm pretty sure my house and car are history.  Once the water recedes, I'll have to see what I can salvage.  The channel 4 coverage on Beech Bend Drive is from my neighborhood.  My street runs into it.

We are safe at a relative's house now... on much higher ground.

Wow.  If we can do anything, please let us know.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 02, 2010, 03:49:01 PM
I'm really confused as to how the cumberland is going to peak late tonight. Normally takes a good day past the last heavy rain to peak.

After looking at it today (and at how much water is still draining into it) it may go over 50
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 02, 2010, 03:54:52 PM
WMC's chopper is live over Arlington right now...pictures were simulcast on CNN a few minutes...as Curt mentioned the flooding is devastating...Highway 70 is within one or two feet of being impassable but at least at the area they showed is dry...but all the businesses/homes on either side are underwater.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2010, 04:39:34 PM
schools here in madison county closed for tomorrow and tuesday
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 04:40:44 PM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
418 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...
PCPN ON THE DECREASE TNGT-MON MORNING WEST TO EAST. DRY PATTERN
MON-THU WL HELP MID TN RECOVER AFTER RECORD FLOODING. NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN IS FORECAST FRI-SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LLJ SHIFTS E AND H5 PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED. HEAVY RAIN/ISO WIND
DAMAGE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATEAU EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRIER AIR CUTTING INTO W TN AS PER WATER VAPOR LOOP. SOME FLOODING
ISSUES IN THE PLATEAU POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT NOTHING NEAR THE
MAGNITUDE WEST.

THE LATEST ON THE RIVERS...SMALLER TRIBUTARIES STARTING TO FALL
BUT MAJOR RIVERS STILL RISING. MAJOR RIVERS EXPECTED TO CREST
EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 02, 2010, 04:57:59 PM
Where can I read the Civil Emergency Messages? Mainly looking to read the Tipton County one... Thanks
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 05:02:54 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
459 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  OVERTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 455 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BAXTER...OR 12 MILES
  WEST OF COOKEVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  LIVINGSTON
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 02, 2010, 05:05:27 PM
The first drops of rain have finally begun to fall here, but the line has weakened dramatically. I doubt we see any significant flooding down here, and that's a good thing as resources are already stretched as thin as can be. Haven't gotten an update from my girlfriends uncle in a while. The rover gauge at the harpeth at Kingston springs hasn't updated since yesterday. Anybody know if it has crested yet?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 05:07:06 PM
Where can I read the Civil Emergency Messages? Mainly looking to read the Tipton County one... Thanks

Quote
products issued by NWS for: 3 Miles W Somerville TN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Civil Emergency Message
TNC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-
063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-
127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-157-
159-161-163-165-167-169-171-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-187-189-
031200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 /1142 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.

STATE EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ARE ADVISING THAT TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS
ON MANY INTERSTATE AND HIGHWAYS DUE TO FLOODING IN WEST AND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

LOCAL ROAD AND STATE HIGHWAY CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY LOW-
LYING AREA. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

MOTORISTS VIOLATING ROADBLOCKS OR ROAD CLOSURES ARE SUBJECT TO
CITATION BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION

If you click on your county on MEG's NWS page, you can see any specific info.  I pulled this one...but you have the blanket msg most counties have.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 02, 2010, 05:15:14 PM
Quick update... we were evacuated from my grandmother's condo.  The water was getting closer, and we got out while we could.  

The stalled out car in front of the condo was eventually completely submerged.  I'm pretty sure my house and car are history.  Once the water recedes, I'll have to see what I can salvage.  The channel 4 coverage on Beech Bend Drive is from my neighborhood.  My street runs into it.

We are safe at a relative's house now... on much higher ground.
Thundersnow, WOW im so sorry. The only thing I can do for you is pray which i will alot.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Woodvegas on May 02, 2010, 05:32:52 PM
Sandbags have been placed around the TN Titans practice facility (Baptist Sports Park) and the Cumberland River may reach the stadium (LP Field).

http://www.titansradio.com/Article.asp?id=1791199&spid=27572

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 05:36:05 PM
Quote
RAINIEST DAY IN NASHVILLE`S HISTORY

NOUS44 KOHX 022149PNSOHXTNZ027-032200-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NASHVILLE TN
449 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010...

RAINIEST DAY IN NASHVILLE`S HISTORY...AS OF 400 PM, NASHVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS MEASURED 7.14INCHES TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR MOST RAIN IN A SINGLE CALENDAR DAY IN THE CITY`S HISTORY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 6.60 INCHES SET ON SEPTEMBER 13, 1979.

THE TWO-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL NOW STANDS AT 13.46 INCHES. THIS OBLITERATES THE PREVIOUS TWO DAY RECORD OF 6.68 INCHES SET ON SEPTEMBER 13-14, 1979.YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL TOTAL OF 6.32 INCHES NOW RANKS AS THE 3RDGREATEST ONE-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IN NASHVILLE`S HISTORY.MAY, 2010 NOW RANKS AS THE WETTEST MAY EVER, SURPASSING MAY, 1983,WHEN 11.04 INCHES WERE MEASURED


. AND MAY, 2010 ALREADY RANKS AS THE SIXTH WETTEST MONTH OVERALL

.$$ROSE
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 05:37:35 PM
Quote
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 134
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

TNC003-015-027-031-035-037-041-049-055-087-099-111-117-119-133-
137-141-149-159-165-169-185-187-189-030000-
/O.EXT.KOHX.SV.A.0134.000000T0000Z-100503T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 134 UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

IN TENNESSEE THE WATCH STILL INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING 24 COUNTIES

IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BEDFORD               CANNON                CLAY
COFFEE                CUMBERLAND            DAVIDSON
DEKALB                FENTRESS              GILES
JACKSON               LAWRENCE              MACON
MARSHALL              MAURY                 OVERTON
PICKETT               PUTNAM                RUTHERFORD
SMITH                 SUMNER                TROUSDALE
WHITE                 WILLIAMSON            WILSON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALLARDT...BRENTWOOD...BYRDSTOWN...
CARTHAGE...CELINA...COLUMBIA...COOKEVILLE... CROSSVILLE...
FRANKLIN...GAINESBORO...GALLATIN...HARTSVILL E...JAMESTOWN...
LAFAYETTE...LAWRENCEBURG...LEWISBURG...LIVIN GSTON...MANCHESTER...
MOUNT JULIET...MURFREESBORO...NASHVILLE...PULASKI. ..SHELBYVILLE...
SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...TULLAHOMA AND WOODBURY.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 05:43:22 PM
Sandbags have been placed around the TN Titans practice facility (Baptist Sports Park) and the Cumberland River may reach the stadium (LP Field).

http://www.titansradio.com/Article.asp?id=1791199&spid=27572



That is going to be the next "interesting" development... What will the Cumberland do?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 02, 2010, 05:54:11 PM
Mostly very light rain/drizzle here. We won't make a half inch out of it at this rate, amazing what a difference only 100 miles can make.

EDIT: coming down harder now, there are some heavier embedded showers but certainly nothing to warrant the preemptive river flood warning.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 02, 2010, 05:56:20 PM
That is going to be the next "interesting" development... What will the Cumberland do?

Was out around 3 today at the river.

You can't really appreciate how full it is til you see it up close.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 02, 2010, 06:23:51 PM
Was out around 3 today at the river.

You can't really appreciate how full it is til you see it up close.

Take any pics?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: justinmundie on May 02, 2010, 06:49:25 PM
yep
(http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpic/photos/full/94748976.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=0ZRYP5X5F6FSMBCCSE82&Expires=1272845142&Signature=W9xkVMYU08cBVN93oalSDIJTioM%3D)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 06:53:43 PM
Incredible picture (a word I've used alot this weekend)...

My garden is underwater..water is standing in the yard...Haven't seen it quite this bad since the remnants of Katrina came through.

Lord help our state and her people.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 06:55:25 PM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
637 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

.UPDATE...FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH SPC AND HUN, HAVE DECIDED TO
LET WW 134 EXPIRE AT 700 PM. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING (MAINLY EAST OF I-65). HOWEVER, ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND THE NASHVILLE AREA SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THIS RECORD-
SETTING RAIN EVENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OF COURSE, RUN-
OFF WILL KEEP FLOOD WATERS HIGH IN MANY AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT,
AND RIVERS WILL STILL BE CRESTING THROUGH MID WEEK.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Beth on May 02, 2010, 07:23:44 PM
Channel 4 news was showing from their helicopter the area that Thundersnow lives.  It looks like most of Bellevue is underwater.  Even the interstate.  I am so amazed.  Looks like a hugh lake from the interstate all the way to highway 100. I can't believe how bad it is there.  So sorry for you, Thunder,,the video makes me want to cry. Two horses stuck in the flood too. They are trying to rescue them.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: beneficii on May 02, 2010, 07:32:52 PM
Quick update... we were evacuated from my grandmother's condo.  The water was getting closer, and we got out while we could.  

The stalled out car in front of the condo was eventually completely submerged.  I'm pretty sure my house and car are history.  Once the water recedes, I'll have to see what I can salvage.  The channel 4 coverage on Beech Bend Drive is from my neighborhood.  My street runs into it.

We are safe at a relative's house now... on much higher ground.
Be careful.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 02, 2010, 07:41:45 PM
yep
(http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpic/photos/full/94748976.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=0ZRYP5X5F6FSMBCCSE82&Expires=1272845142&Signature=W9xkVMYU08cBVN93oalSDIJTioM%3D)


I get a red X....  ::pondering::
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 07:49:12 PM
That's weird, it was there earlier...
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: StormNine on May 02, 2010, 07:49:42 PM
Doesn't Nashville WX also live in Bellevue.  Hope and pray for the best in that area, it is a sad, and a jaw dropping event.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: StormNine on May 02, 2010, 08:04:09 PM
More fatalities in Nashville, and the Bellevue area reported by News 5, and 2 more are missing.  5 total in Davidson County.  :(
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 08:06:41 PM
I am very afraid what will be found in the coming days...

 :'(
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 02, 2010, 08:17:12 PM
The Cumberland at Riverside in CKV is super high.

Here's my pics from the day; not nearly as bad as NSH but it's bad for up here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/bigalpha/sets/72157623854511741/
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 08:37:33 PM
The Cumberland at Riverside in CKV is super high.

Here's my pics from the day; not nearly as bad as NSH but it's bad for up here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/bigalpha/sets/72157623854511741/

Scary pictures...especially those of those of The Cumberland  {{shiver}}
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 02, 2010, 08:47:44 PM
And the Cumberland will probably rise another few feet since Nashville will drain into the Cumberland watershed ... then travel downstream to us.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: karenh on May 02, 2010, 09:06:05 PM
Lurker here......Here are the pix from the Blackman area of Murfreesboro.

http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=175488&id=769630853&l=e5de11d9c1
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 02, 2010, 09:08:46 PM
We ventured out to see this afternoon...

My grandmother's condo is flooded with several inches of water on the ground floor.  I thought we would be safe there, but that turned out not to be the case.


Then, we went to my street, where we were able to get close enough at the edge of the flood water to see the house.

The house has about 8 feet of water around it, just a foot or so from reaching the eaves.  My car was not visible, being submerged deep under the water on the street.


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 02, 2010, 09:14:55 PM
We ventured out to see this afternoon...

My grandmother's condo is flooded with several inches of water on the ground floor.  I thought we would be safe there, but that turned out not to be the case.

Then, we went to my street, where we were able to get close enough at the edge of the flood water to see the house.

The house has about 8 feet of water around it, just a foot or so from reaching the eaves.  My car was not visible, being submerged deep under the water on the street.


Holy  ::wow:: !!!!!  So sad to see that.  If we can do anything....ANYTHING....please don't hesitate.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 09:17:40 PM
Holy  ::wow:: !!!!!  So sad to see that.  If we can do anything....ANYTHING....please don't hesitate.

Yes...please...PLEASE..let us know, we're like family.

 :'(
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 09:22:03 PM
Lurker here......Here are the pix from the Blackman area of Murfreesboro.

http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=175488&id=769630853&l=e5de11d9c1

Thanks for coming out of lurkerdom to post those, Karen.  Do you have water in your house yet?
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 02, 2010, 09:27:17 PM
Perry Co rescue workers are looking for 2 missing individuals who were swept away when their home was over taken by a swollen creek. This is reported to be a father and his teenage daughter. Several close to this situation have said that both were trapped under water when their home was submerged. There is still a lot of uncertainties with this situation but the family is undoubtedly in need of prayers.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 09:29:20 PM
Davidson county death toll to 5....

Quote
Mayor's Office Confirms 4 Additional Flood Related Deaths
Posted: May 02, 2010 8:16 PM CDT
Video Gallery
 
Night Rescues Underway In Bellevue Area
5:52 

 
Nashville, Tenn.- Though the rains ceased, the flood waters were still rising into the night Sunday. Sunday evening, the mayor's office confirmed two bodies were recovered from a flooded house in Bellevue. Two bodies were recovered from an upside down car on Sawyer Brown Road in Bellevue near River Plantation.

Janel Lacy from the Mayor's office said that makes five total deaths in Davidson County. She also mentioned two men are missing after three of them tied tubes together and tried to cross Mill Creek. One of the men made it to safety, but search crews are trying to locate the other men.

Furthermore, the Mayor's office is asking Nashville residents to limit water use because they've had to close one of the water treatment plants.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 02, 2010, 09:31:16 PM
Just me or is the area of rain and storms re-firing...and stalling again?

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 02, 2010, 09:34:31 PM
Quick update... we were evacuated from my grandmother's condo.  The water was getting closer, and we got out while we could.  

The stalled out car in front of the condo was eventually completely submerged.  I'm pretty sure my house and car are history.  Once the water recedes, I'll have to see what I can salvage.  The channel 4 coverage on Beech Bend Drive is from my neighborhood.  My street runs into it.

We are safe at a relative's house now... on much higher ground.

So sad to hear about this.  Glad you and your family are okay.  Hang in there.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Extremewxlover on May 02, 2010, 09:49:01 PM
is the cumberland river still rising, what is it at now/

i want plant tomatoes tomorrow from seed, is it safe with all this rain
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 09:53:47 PM
Quote
Epic Flood Event of May 2010
 

Record or Near-Record River Floods
Expected in Middle Tennessee over
the Next Few Days

In addition to the significant flash flood events that have occurred in the mid-state over the last few days,  an epic flood event is also developing on area rivers. A number of rivers are cresting, or expected to crest at much as 9 to 13 feet above flood stage. 

The Duck River at Centerville is forecast to crest as much as 27 feet above flood stage! 

The forecast crest on the Cumberland at Nashville will be the highest level recorded since the Cumberland River  dam system was built in the early 1960s.

Some river points have already seen their highest crest or are seeing it occur now. A number of rivers are expected to crest in the next day or two, with some reaching levels that far exceed previous records.

Following are the forecast crests for  8 river gages in the mid state:

1)  Cumberland River at Nashville,

       Forecast Crest: 50 feet by midnight tonight.
       Flood Stage: 40 feet.
       Record Crest: 56.2, Jan. 1, 1929 (pre flood control)
                                  47.6, Mar. 15, 1975 (post flood control)
 

2)  Duck River at Centerville
      Forecast Crest:  near 49 feet after midnight tomorrow night
      Flood Stage: 22 feet.
      Record Crest: 37.6 feet, Feb. 14, 1948

3) Duck River near Hurricane Mills
      Forecast Crest: near 33 feet by early afternoon Monday
      Flood Stage: 24 feet.
      Record Crest: 30.7 feet, Feb. 14, 1948

4) Buffalo River near Lobelville
     Forecast Crest: 27.0 feet by Monday morning
     Flood Stage: 14 feet.
     Record Crest: 25.2 feet, May 28, 1991

5) Harpeth River near Kingston Springs
     Crest occurred this evening, estimated 38.0 feet,
      which was over the previous record of 32.2 feet, set on Jan. 7, 1946.
      Flood Stage: 20 feet.

6)  Harpeth River at Bellevue
      Crest occurred today, estimated near 33.0 feet,
       which was above the previous record of 24.3 feet, set on Feb. 13, 1948.
       Flood Stage: 20 feet.

7)  Harpeth River at Franklin
      Crest occurred today, estimated near 35.0 feet,
       which was near the old record of 35.2, set of Feb. 13, 1968.
        Flood Stage: 30 feet.

8 )   Red River near Port Royal
       Forecast Crest: near 48.0 feet later tonight
       which will be very near the old record of 48.3 feet,  Mar. 13, 1975.
       Flood Stage: 30 feet.

Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 02, 2010, 09:54:27 PM
At Clarksville.
(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/ckvt1_hg.png)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 02, 2010, 10:28:15 PM
Quote
Opryland Resort Evacuates 1500 Guests
Posted: May 02, 2010 9:12 PM CDT
Video Gallery
 
Opryland Hotel Evacuates Guests
2:38 

 
Sky 5 view of Opryland Hotel, Sunday, May 2, 2010
NASHVILLE, Tenn.-  As the Cumberland river rose Sunday night, operating officials at Opryland Hotel took precautions. They moved all guests to the Presidential Ballroom first, then began evacuating people from the hotel to other hotels.

Kim Keelor, Opryland spokeswoman said their guests' safety is most important.

"We have about 1,500 people on our property. We have them all gathered in one of our largest ballrooms. And our general manager Pete Weien is talking to them right now. So far we are in very good shape. We have some minor flooding in our tunnels and in our parking lot, but we feel being right on the river like we are, we need to go ahead and move everybody out," said Keelor.

They are establishing a command post and starting to move guests to other places. She said all of the hotels in Nashville were booked, so they were having some challenges finding places to take them.

"We've been without electricity most of the day on and off, and we started turning away all of our guests who were checking in today," Keelor continued
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Eric on May 02, 2010, 10:40:52 PM
I think at this juncture, we can return the forum to normal operations.  We thank everyone for their cooperation.
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 02, 2010, 10:57:53 PM
Devastating flooding western half of the state. Here is vid from WMC of Arlington (click on Chopper 5 Part 3). Last night, the main Highway (70) was under several feet. Obviously loss of life is most concerning, but the $$$ from this event stretching from Memphis to Nashville will be unprecendeted. I would imagine that nearly  every county in the Western half of the state will be declared a federal disaster.

http://www.wmctv.com/Global/story.asp?S=12411708
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: titans fan on May 02, 2010, 11:07:07 PM
Thundersno, sorry to hear about your, and your grandmothers homes.
Same, for any other members of this board, that have lost property this weekend.
I think I can speak for the rest of the members here, if there is something we can do to help, please let it be known.
I have made trips to FL (after Katrina) and Mississippi (after Katrina)
to help with the cleanup. Never thought I would be dealing with "Storm Surge damage" in Nashville- but looks like that will be the case for the next few weekends -

Anyone know the status of the Nashville Water Treatment Plant, and the oil refineries located on the Cumberland?
I just filled up the cars, and picked up a couple of extra cases of bottled water (just in case)
Might suggest others here that depend on those facilites do the same, never can be too prepared,  (the post hurricane trips taught me that)
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 02, 2010, 11:11:12 PM
Kevin, did you see the WMC video at the golf course in Oakland? Tornado or straight line winds? Looks like the trees all fell in one direction, so it leads me to believe it was a downburst with maybe a weak embedded small tornado.

One thing to be most grateful for...the high risk did not verify. If it did that massive supercell that originated near El Dorado AR would have been devastating once it hit the population center in Memphis.
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: InMemphis on May 02, 2010, 11:22:03 PM
I do not ever recall a day where so many tornado warnings were issued for Shelby County. One thing about it was the sirens did not get much rest. I was happy that unlike last Saturday at noon Germantown did not test their sirens yesterday.

We did lose power just before 1:30 this morning and for a while I was very concerned and there was a bit of tree damage in my neighborhood.
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 02, 2010, 11:25:05 PM
I do not ever recall a day where so many tornado warnings were issued for Shelby County. One thing about it was the sirens did not get much rest. I was happy that unlike last Saturday at noon Germantown did not test their sirens yesterday.

We did lose power just before 1:30 this morning and for a while I was very concerned and there was a bit of tree damage in my neighborhood.


I believe there were 6 tornado warnings for Shelby Co in a 24-hour period, including the massive supercell that rolled nearly 175 miles from southern Arkansas into the county at 9pm last night. No doubt this was a first.
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: InMemphis on May 02, 2010, 11:32:29 PM


I believe there were 6 tornado warnings for Shelby Co in a 24-hour period, including the massive supercell that rolled nearly 175 miles from southern Arkansas into the county at 9pm last night. No doubt this was a first.
Nothing ever like this that you know of? I will tell you the one at 9 had me concerned but there was something about the one this morning that had me even more concerned.
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 02, 2010, 11:34:12 PM
Nothing ever like this that you know of? I will tell you the one at 9 had me concerned but there was something about the one this morning that had me even more concerned.
I was so exausted, I slept right through it...never even heard the sirens. Despite me sleeping through #6, I can tell you this...they work...and work well.
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 02, 2010, 11:36:29 PM
Now, for the first time since this all started, I have truly heavy rain falling.  About 0.25 just in the last 10 minutes! You can tell that the PWATS are near record highs right now.

EDIT: and now looking at the radar, I can't tell where the rain is coming from. The image isn't old, and there is nothing showing over my house, despite quite heavy rain falling outside. Like its under the beam height or something. Weird.

EDIT again: NVM, misread the timecode. The HTX radar isn't updating on the NWS site for some reason. Might be down.
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: InMemphis on May 02, 2010, 11:48:37 PM
I was so exausted, I slept right through it...never even heard the sirens. Despite me sleeping through #6, I can tell you this...they work...and work well.
Is the Arlington area still dealing with a lot of problems? One thing I have noticed is there is a small chance of rain and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ChrisPC on May 02, 2010, 11:52:14 PM
My family and property are OK here in Hermitage, but just a mile away there's serious flooding. Old Hickory Blvd. just off I-40 is underwater!  ::wow:: A brand new Burger King and Buffalo Wild Wings had water in them. A horse barn, a driving range, and 3 or 4 houses are flooded. I heard the horses were taken out in time, though. The creek that flooded, Stoners Creek, is only about 150 yards behind my mother-in-law's house. She said the apartments behind her had 4-5 feet of flowing water in their parking lot!
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 02, 2010, 11:54:28 PM
Is the Arlington area still dealing with a lot of problems? One thing I have noticed is there is a  small chance of rain and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.

Areas along the Loosahatchie are still dealing with record flooding. This should start to recede tomorrow with drier wx, but the damage was done. The water rose in Arlington over Hwy 70 VERY quickly yesterday. I wonder if it was due to the levee breach at Big Creek flooding the Loosahatchie so quickly. Just amazing.
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: toastido on May 03, 2010, 12:16:04 AM
Sorry I haven't posted back all day, I've been out chasing/spotting locally here in Huntsville (and apparently playing hero.. who knew?).. 

Update: My family is fine, no flooding at my parents house, and my Grandparents are fine as well. 

There was lots of flooding here in Huntsville due to the rains that we finally got..and I got sent to check out a rising creek level, when I discovered a man and his dog trapped by the rising waters and was able to get him rescued.  Made me feel all warm and fuzzy inside...(either that, or the humidity did.. don't know yet.. lol)

Anyway, I hope and pray for everyone affected by the flooding, tornadoes, and other severe damaging weather this weekend.  It has definitely been a long one.
Title: Re: SEVERE FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ChrisPC on May 03, 2010, 01:18:43 AM
I just saw some more photos. Apparently, the road my mother-in-law lives on has been washed out 1/2 mile behind her house. She lives on a hill, and never goes that far down, so she hasn't noticed!  ::wow::
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: BRUCE on May 03, 2010, 07:19:41 AM
as a big weather junkie i am. i have followed alot of big time events. but this has to be the one of the more devasting evnts i have ever wintnessed in the state of tennessee. the more photos i see coming out on local tv is almost unreal.  and just think people almost kind of laugh back when this thread got started. had a feeling something big would come out of this.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: karenh on May 03, 2010, 07:41:02 AM
Thanks for coming out of lurkerdom to post those, Karen.  Do you have water in your house yet?


It never made it into the house.  it did in about 7 houses down the road from us.  We were in a flood plain, and when they built, they built us up out of it.  It would have taken another probably 2 feet to have breached the house.  I couldn't believe the people who got mad because the cops made them park their cars and walk home, or wouldn't just let them drive through.......(it was knee deep over the road and rushing over into a huge gully.)
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 07:54:43 AM

It never made it into the house.  it did in about 7 houses down the road from us.  We were in a flood plain, and when they built, they built us up out of it.  It would have taken another probably 2 feet to have breached the house.  I couldn't believe the people who got mad because the cops made them park their cars and walk home, or wouldn't just let them drive through.......(it was knee deep over the road and rushing over into a huge gully.)

I just saw on TV, some people from Chicago who were upset because they were evacuated from Downtown Nashville bars last night/this morning.   ::shrug::  I don't get that.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Adam on May 03, 2010, 07:56:38 AM
I just saw on TV, some people from Chicago who were upset because they were evacuated from Downtown Nashville bars last night/this morning.   ::shrug::  I don't get that.
What has society came too these days? ???
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 07:56:47 AM
Mayor Dean is requesting that Davidson Co. residents ONLY use water to drink and cook to conserve water. (WKRN)

Down to one treatment plant.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Adam on May 03, 2010, 07:57:45 AM
Mayor Dean is requesting that Davidson Co. residents ONLY use water to drink and cook to conserve water. (WKRN)
  Thats what they told us here.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: karenh on May 03, 2010, 08:11:55 AM
I just saw on TV, some people from Chicago who were upset because they were evacuated from Downtown Nashville bars last night/this morning.   ::shrug::  I don't get that.

I never realized what idiots people were until I started working retail......It is just devistating to watch the tv.  My prayers go out to all those are affected.  :(
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 08:16:42 AM
I never realized what idiots people were until I started working retail......It is just devistating to watch the tv.  My prayers go out to all those are affected.  :(

Spent 20 years in retail....yeah...know what you are saying.

And yes, watching this coverage reminds me of when I lived in FL after Andrew...just so much...And water damage is so very long term.  Some of this damage might not show for awhile yet.

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Woodvegas on May 03, 2010, 09:22:25 AM
Cumberland River in Nashville basically at 51 feet and progged to go to 51.5!

(http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/nast1_record.png)
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 03, 2010, 09:23:21 AM
From what I've seen so far this is getting very little national attention despite the historic nature of the event.   To the rest of the nation right now I think this just looks like another "Severe Storms affect the Southeast" blip.

I'm thinking part of the reason could be that the NYC bomb threat and the Gulf oil incident could be overshadowing.   I'm not sure if the catastrophic extent of this disaster is really getting out there.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: weatherowl on May 03, 2010, 09:35:32 AM
Good morning!  I am reading and hearing very conflicitng information regarding I-24.  On two newspaper websites, I am reading that I-24 is closed in at least 3 places throughout Nashville.  However, the local news media says that I-24 is open.  Is there anyone that can shed some light on this situation.  We have been stuck in Western Kentucky all weekend and want terribly to get home to Murfreesboro but do not wnat to complicate things or end up floating/stranded.  Also, does anyone think there could be further interstate problems still to develop today?  Thanks so much. 
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 09:37:20 AM
Considering areas rivers have not seen this type of flooding since the huge '37 floods..and certainly haven't been pushed since all the dams were built in the 60's..one would think that this would get a bit more nationwide notice because of its impact.

Having said that....you are probably right, the oil spill in The Gulf, the bomb threat in Times Square...probably overshadowed everything else.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 09:38:25 AM
Good morning!  I am reading and hearing very conflicitng information regarding I-24.  On two newspaper websites, I am reading that I-24 is closed in at least 3 places throughout Nashville.  However, the local news media says that I-24 is open.  Is there anyone that can shed some light on this situation.  We have been stuck in Western Kentucky all weekend and want terribly to get home to Murfreesboro but do not wnat to complicate things or end up floating/stranded.  Also, does anyone think there could be further interstate problems still to develop today?  Thanks so much. 

I did hear on WKRN that 1-24 is fine NOW... Where are you in KY?  Further problems COULD develop, depending on how much higher the Cumberland River rises.

I-40 is still a huge problem between Nashville and Dickson
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: weatherowl on May 03, 2010, 09:45:14 AM
I did hear on WKRN that 1-24 is fine NOW... Where are you in KY?  Further problems COULD develop, depending on how much higher the Cumberland River rises.

I-40 is still a huge problem between Nashville and Dickson

Servo - We are in Mayfield, KY.  I am concerned about the problems that COULD develop.  So unsure about what to do but know that my problems are miniscule compared to those of others...  Thank you so much for your help.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: DocB on May 03, 2010, 09:51:08 AM
Servo - We are in Mayfield, KY.  I am concerned about the problems that COULD develop.  So unsure about what to do but know that my problems are miniscule compared to those of others...  Thank you so much for your help.
You may also want to check out the TDOT site as well.
http://ww2.tdot.state.tn.us/tsw/smartmap.htm (http://ww2.tdot.state.tn.us/tsw/smartmap.htm)

Looks like some minor delays coming from the North, but as long as you aren't headed west of N'Ville, you should be ok. Just stick to the interstates if you can, but not Briley Pkwy

Here in Smyrna towards your destination (M'Boro) I-24 is fine.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: weatherowl on May 03, 2010, 09:57:09 AM
You may also want to check out the TDOT site as well.
http://ww2.tdot.state.tn.us/tsw/smartmap.htm (http://ww2.tdot.state.tn.us/tsw/smartmap.htm)

Looks like some minor delays coming from the North, but as long as you aren't headed west of N'Ville, you should be ok. Just stick to the interstates if you can, but not Briley Pkwy

Here in Smyrna towards your destination (M'Boro) I-24 is fine.


Thank you so very much for all your help.  Ya'll are the best!
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 10:01:47 AM
You're very welcome, have a safe trip.  Here are the phone numbers for KY and TN road conditions while you travel.

State Phone Number
Tennessee 1-877-244-0065
Kentucky 1-866-737-3767
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 03, 2010, 10:04:09 AM
You may also want to check out the TDOT site as well.
http://ww2.tdot.state.tn.us/tsw/smartmap.htm (http://ww2.tdot.state.tn.us/tsw/smartmap.htm)

Looks like some minor delays coming from the North, but as long as you aren't headed west of N'Ville, you should be ok. Just stick to the interstates if you can, but not Briley Pkwy

Here in Smyrna towards your destination (M'Boro) I-24 is fine.


Not sure if you guys noticed, but you need to make sure the "Road Conditions" layer is checked/turned on.  Give the map a little time (30 seconds or so) and you'll see that many of the major highways and roads are still highlighted as "flooded", from metro to Franklin to M'boro and as far south as Marshall and Hardin counties.  Not sure how often it's being updated though.

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 10:09:24 AM
Not sure if you guys noticed, but you need to make sure the "Road Conditions" layer is checked/turned on.  Give the map a little time (30 seconds or so) and you'll see that many of the major highways and roads are still highlighted as "flooded", from metro to Franklin to M'boro and as far south as Marshall and Hardin counties.  Not sure how often it's being updated though.



I had heard one report this weekend that the emregency operations center for TDOT was flooded, and they couldn't update the website, BUT I never heard any more about it.  I saw all that blue too...Hopefully, the phone numbers will be up to date.

You'd think they could log in from elsewhere..BUT..since this is unprecedented..
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 03, 2010, 10:22:42 AM
Highway 13 is completely shut down in 2 different places in Perry Co. The Buffalo river is WAY higher than it has ever been it is in the town of Linden inhabitting several businesses. The search for the two who were lost yesterday when their home was swept away in a creek in ongoing they still haven't found the father and his teenage daughter. It appears as if hundreds of houses my be lost causes here as everywhere you go around the county you hear about people in different spots losing their home to water. It is a hard time state wide but together we will get through it.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 10:26:23 AM
Highway 13 is completely shut down in 2 different places in Perry Co. The Buffalo river is WAY higher than it has ever been it is in the town of Linden inhabitting several businesses. The search for the two who were lost yesterday when their home was swept away in a creek in ongoing they still haven't found the father and his teenage daughter. It appears as if hundreds of houses my be lost causes here as everywhere you go around the county you hear about people in different spots losing their home to water. It is a hard time state wide but together we will get through it.

Thanks for keeping us posted with what is going on over there.

 :( :(
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: DocB on May 03, 2010, 10:29:56 AM
Thank you so very much for all your help.  Ya'll are the best!
Just a heads up, heard on the radio that I-24 may have issues in Clarkesville coming from KY. It's not closed yet, but they might since the water is coming up on the Red River.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 03, 2010, 10:34:24 AM
I wound up with 3.31 inches of rain, a good bit more than I was expecting based on radar. There is some minor flooding here, and chickamauga creek is forecast to get just barely above flood stage.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 10:38:27 AM
Just a heads up, heard on the radio that I-24 may have issues in Clarkesville coming from KY. It's not closed yet, but they might since the water is coming up on the Red River.

Just heard that on WSMV too. 
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: weatherowl on May 03, 2010, 10:45:40 AM
Just a heads up, heard on the radio that I-24 may have issues in Clarkesville coming from KY. It's not closed yet, but they might since the water is coming up on the Red River.

We heard that also.  Thanks so much for all the input, and we would love to hear more throughout the day as you all know about road conditions.  We decided that it wasn't worth clogging up the interstates when it was not imperative that we get home today.  Hope to head that way tomorrow.  

Thanks again for all of the amazingly helpful information that this site gives to people.  Thanks especially to Charles for his insight on 2 tornado warned storms that we had here in Mayfield on Saturday night.  The news media here does not have as sophisticated technology for tracking storm as I am accustomed to in Nashville.  It was unnerving to know that the rotation was present but not know if it was touching the ground...especially considering it was a nighttime event.  I jumped online and posted for help and had others checking out the storms for me in a matter of minutes.  The storms did end up passing over with no touchdown but there were some nasty sounds from where I was in my safe place.  My prayers are with EVERYONE affected by this tragedy...  Thanks again to all!

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 03, 2010, 10:53:17 AM
From what I've seen so far this is getting very little national attention despite the historic nature of the event.   To the rest of the nation right now I think this just looks like another "Severe Storms affect the Southeast" blip.

I'm thinking part of the reason could be that the NYC bomb threat and the Gulf oil incident could be overshadowing.   I'm not sure if the catastrophic extent of this disaster is really getting out there.

Sadly, flooding doesnt have the "glam" factor that tornadoes have in the eyes of the media. Although it dodnt involve flooding, the derecho "Hurricane Elivs" which blew through Memphis with 100mph winds a few years ago received almost no attention, despite several deaths, 750K people without electricity, and $500M in damages.

Flooding kills more people than tornadoes in general, and causes WAAAYY more damage in $$$. Not sure, but the statewide floods could end up being a billion dollar disaster in the long term.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 03, 2010, 10:57:34 AM
Sadly, flooding doesnt have the "glam" factor that tornadoes have in the eyes of the media. Although it dodnt involve flooding, the derecho "Hurricane Elivs" which blew through Memphis with 100mph winds a few years ago received almost no attention, despite several deaths, 750K people without electricity, and $500M in damages.

Flooding kills more people than tornadoes in general, and causes WAAAYY more damage in $$$. Not sure, but the statewide floods could end up being a billion dollar disaster in the long term.

It's the first story on the CNN homepage right now.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 03, 2010, 11:05:56 AM
It's the first story on the CNN homepage right now.

My point exactly as flooding has been going on for 3 days in Tennessee, and coverage is just now occurring. The Yazoo city tornado was covered immediately by most outlets with less fatalities. either way, its been a sad 2 weeks in the Mid-South. I am glad it is receveing attention now, so people can send resources as needed.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 03, 2010, 11:36:30 AM
The downtown bridges in CKV are closed, all of riverside is flooded.  The only way I could get home from the North end of town is Exit 4 to Exit 11.  The water level under the bridge on I24 is less than 5' from hitting the bridge. 

I also hear that they are opening Cheatham Dam so they will be closing the I24 bridge.  Traffic is backing up all around town.  News just said they performed 18 evacuations today. 

If anyone in CKV needs a hand or help let me know!!!
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: WFayetteTN on May 03, 2010, 11:59:01 AM
When Hurricane Elvis came through... I lost 13 ninety-five foot trees, with 2 cutting my house in half and anohter uprooted tree (one of the 13) crushed my vehicle... yada yada yada... I was not in midtown memphis. I was in Fayette county. It just so happened that there was some minor Bin Laden news that hit the night before that, so our catastrophe did not rec any national news coverage. And there was a very poor attempt at a bombing in Times Square this weekend.  And it takes the news away from hundreds of miles of mass flooding in TN. And to top it off, they only have a blurry picture of some guy taking off his shirt through a store window as a lead on that. I mean we live in the age of Facebook ruling our private lives, pinhole cameras built into inkpens for under $50, and Google having a picture of my freshly cut grass, and all they have is a fuzzy picture of a guy removing his shirt. Amazing.
Flooding is the highest killer in storms. It was bad. I only had about 7" of rain. Sunday morning I knew for sure I was going to lose some trees, but the good Lord had his hand on my property that night. I pray for all those who were not so lucky.

Looks like sunny through thursday.. maybe we can recover a bit before the next storm. Its been snowing in NM. So hopefully thats not a sign of things to come. Whats the long range showing?
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 11:59:23 AM
WSMV just reported about 50 roads closed in Rutherford Co.  This is primarily on the north end of the county.

Lavergne Help Hotline:  355-3000
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 12:03:40 PM
Thanks everyone for posting your updates, we encourage you to do so throughout the day, so we know how things are in your area.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 03, 2010, 12:25:36 PM
I am trying to re-route someone to Memphis from teh east side of Nashville. All interstates are closed while PP dam is fulowing full. Is 840 open from I-40 to Franklin? Am sending him to I-65 south to Ste route 64 west to Memphis. TDOT show it open but would like more confirmation from folks in the area.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 12:42:11 PM
I am trying to re-route someone to Memphis from teh east side of Nashville. All interstates are closed while PP dam is fulowing full. Is 840 open from I-40 to Franklin? Am sending him to I-65 south to Ste route 64 west to Memphis. TDOT show it open but would like more confirmation from folks in the area.

I'll keep looking...I know they did reopen part of I-40 out of Nashville heading toward Dickson...but haven't heard about 840.  The WSMV website was showing it closed in Wilson Co. (and I don't know how current that info is), but that is all I saw...

Also am watching local TV coverage...
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: DocB on May 03, 2010, 12:53:40 PM
WSMV just reported about 50 roads closed in Rutherford Co.  This is primarily on the north end of the county.

Lavergne Help Hotline:  355-3000
I do know that Sam Ridley Pkwy is closed just east of M'Boro Road near the airport/golf course due to high water. Also hear that water backs up to the National Guard base on Weakley Lane from Percy Priest lake.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Susan in Macon on May 03, 2010, 12:54:29 PM
They have opened HWY 10 in Macon Co having cleared the mudslide.  

I am hearing bad things out of Smith County with the flooding there.  I hope everyone is okay there but I am worried about lots of my students and their families.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ChrisPC on May 03, 2010, 01:08:01 PM
Now, the Stones River here in Hermitage is cresting, and most of the strip mall next to the river is underwater. Target, Kohl's, and First Tennessee Bank have some water in them. The water looks to be entering the buildings, and if Percy Priest Dam is opened, it'll only get worse. There was a sandbag crew there, I suppose to protect the rest of the businesses. BTW, I saw two guys get in kayaks, paddle across the Target parking lot, and head for the river! Idiots.  ::)
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 01:10:37 PM
Quote
EMA: West fork of Stones River still rising; Several streets still closed

BY MARK BELL • MBELL@DNJ.COM • May 3, 2010

Rutherford County emergency officials say the east fork of the Stones River has already crested and started to drop, but a rise is still occurring at the east fork, where water is expected to crest at 24 feet before falling “incrementally” throughout the evening.

Rutherford County Emergency Management Agency assistant director Tim Hooker said emergency officials are monitoring water levels and doing damage assessment across the county. The county has also offered assistance with rescues that are ongoing in Cheatham County.


Approximately 40 roads throughout the county remain impacted, including areas along Sulphur Springs Road, Quail Ridge Road and Florence Road. Smyrna and La Vergne remain the most impacted areas.


There are currently no official numbers on the amount of homes impacted by this past weekend’s flooding, according to Hooker.


“We were running in rescue mode all the way up until last night,” Hooker said. “We’ve been limited in our ability to do any impact studies at this point. We are asking the general public for assistance in putting one together though. Anyone with flood or storm damage to their home should call our disaster assistance telephone number at 890-5519 or 890-2957.”


Rutherford County emergency agencies gave “assistance and rescue to approximately 200 individuals over the weekend,” Hooker said. “Maybe more.”


The majority of rescues by Murfreesboro Swift Water Rescue members were due to people “taking high risks,” like “kids thinking its fun to take a raft through the water,” Hooker said.


Rutherford County EMA and EMS spokesman Randy White said officials are “urging people not to do things like that because there is potential for contaminants in the water.


Many rescues were the result of people taking risks and driving through water-blocked roads.


“That kind of behavior not only endangers the folks engaging in it, but also endangers rescuers who have to go in to these situations to get people out,” White said.


The following roads remain impacted:


—County Roads
1700 Block of Kingwood Lane (1 Foot of Standing Water)
41/70 Florance Rd at George Flankin
Almaville Rd at One Mile Lane
Armstrong Valley Rd at Barfield Cresent
Armstrong Valley Rd at Highway 99
Baker at Bragg
Baker at Fall Creek
Barlow Lane
Epps Mill (I-24 to Buchanan Estates)
Fellowship Road
Jefferson Pike (West) at Powles Chapel
Jefferson Springs Boat Ramp
Kingwood Lane
Maddox Road
Manson Pike at Florance Road
Mt Vernon at Klaston
Old Nashville at Budist Temple
Old Woodbury Hwy at Christopher Lane
Powells Chapel (9206 to Dinky Lane)
Roanoke Drive
Rockdale Fellowship 6400 Block
Rockdale Fellowship at North Lamar
Stone River Slab
Sulpher Springs Rd (East Buckeye to Nices Mill)
Sulpher Springs Rd at Timber Lake
Veals Rd at Double Springs
Veterans at Armstrong Valley
Windrow at 5400 Block
Windrow at Overall Creek Rd


—Town of Smyrna
Tedder Blvd and Rocky Fork Road
Florence Road at Rebel Road


—City of La Vergne
Jones Mill Road at Fergus
Highland at Old Nashville
Stones River at Tal Lane
Deer at Sunrise
Old Nashville at CSX underpass
Jefferson Pike at 400
Buchanan Street at Stones River Road
Madison Square Blvd at Nir Shreibman
Industrial Blvd at Nir Shreibman
Ingles Street
Morningside Road
Dawn Court
Sunward Drive
Rainbow Place
Greenfield Drive


—City of Murfreesboro
Highway 41/70 (In front of Grand Slam)
Saddle Brook Drive
Broad Street Outbound to Smyrna at 840 closed
Northfield at Lascassas
Northfield at Memorial
Butchnell Creek at Highway 96
Wilkinson at Thompson
KFC at Chaffin Place
Malloy at Bridge Ave.
Old Nashville Highway at the railroad overpass
Sulphur Springs at Bridgette
College St. at Garrison


Street closings/re-openings are subject to change
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 03, 2010, 01:22:59 PM
Good news, the extended looks fairly dry for awhile. there may be someshowers but nothing that would aggravate ongoing flooding.

thanks SC for the info!
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: DocB on May 03, 2010, 01:26:57 PM
EMA: West fork of Stones River still rising; Several streets still closed

BY MARK BELL • MBELL@DNJ.COM • May 3, 2010

Rutherford County emergency officials say the east fork of the Stones River has already crested and started to drop, but a rise is still occurring at the east fork, where water is expected to crest at 24 feet before falling “incrementally” throughout the evening.
<SNIP>

Thanks for that servocrow - I have been looking all over for these kind of details.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 01:36:02 PM
Thanks for that servocrow - I have been looking all over for these kind of details.

You're welcome...I don't know why I didn't think of looking at the Daily News Journal page sooner..Info overload I think.   ::doh::  Even on the NWS, The Stones River isn't automatically updated like the other rivers.

I looked at the WSMV website and learned that HWY 231 was covered in water where I live at one point.  I haven't ventured out.  Boys are home.

Looking at some of the pics around the county, there are several places even on my end that are under water.  I mean we "only" received just shy over 5"....but that on a NORMAL weekend would be A LOT.This time, it is comparatively, a very small amount...yet there is still a very real impact.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 01:38:58 PM
I40 West from Nashville to Waverly -OPEN

I40 East from TN River to Nashville - OPEN




840 still closed in Wilson County
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: David on May 03, 2010, 01:45:11 PM
I keep hearing they are going to open the DAM has anyone heard that?
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 01:51:16 PM
I keep hearing they are going to open the DAM has anyone heard that?

I heard the dams were all on regular schedules....which will cause their own set of issues...was trying to find more info, couldn't quickly...
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: DocB on May 03, 2010, 01:57:56 PM
I heard the dams were all on regular schedules....which will cause their own set of issues...was trying to find more info, couldn't quickly...
Ditto that - seems like they are all releasing volume as required. Here is the data on Old Hickory Dam upstream from Nashville
http://lakeinfo.tva.gov/htbin/lakeinfo?site=OHH&DataType=Obs (http://lakeinfo.tva.gov/htbin/lakeinfo?site=OHH&DataType=Obs)
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 02:04:23 PM
Here's a pic from the DNJ website

This is the caption:

Quote
Gannett Tennessee
A car is covered with debris as it and 20 cars and tractor trailers wait to be cleared from I-24 Eastbound toward Murfreesboro. The wooden structure to the left is the porch of the building that floated down I-24 according to TDOT workers on the scene.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 02:07:45 PM
New forecast for Cumberland in Nashville is 52'.... It's already at 51.5' now.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 02:12:09 PM
The Grand Ole Opry House is taking on water... :'(
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 02:20:43 PM
Also, the entire Greenway system is closed; officials not sure when it would reopen

Rutherford Co. roads still impacted at 1 PM today:

Quote
—County Roads
George Franklin to Florence
Couchville to Fellowship
Fellowship off Couchville
Couchville(2580)
Florence at Sulpher Springs
Cainsville at Lascassas
East Jefferson at Wade Springs
Cut Off Road
Harvest Grove to Lebanon
Barlow Lane
Allen Road
Elmhurst Drive
Leanna Road
Leanna Swamp Road
Swamp Leanna Road
Sulphur Springs (3583)
Shacklett Road
Antietam Lane
Browns Mill at Bridge
Woodcraft
Double Springs
Browns Mill at Lascassas
Lofton
Guy James at Bridge


—Town of Smyrna
Tedder Blvd and Rocky Fork Road
Florence Road at Rebel Road


—City of La Vergne
Jones Mill Road at Fergus
Highland at Old Nashville
Stones River at Tal Lane
Deer at Sunrise
Old Nashville at CSX underpass
Jefferson Pike at 400
Buchanan Street at Stones River Road
Madison Square Blvd at Nir Shreibman
Industrial Blvd at Nir Shreibman
Ingles Street
Morningside Road
Dawn Court
Sunward Drive
Rainbow Place
Greenfield Drive


—City of Murfreesboro
Highway 41/70 (In front of Grand Slam)
Saddle Brook Drive
Broad Street Outbound to Smyrna at 840 closed
Northfield at Lascassas
Northfield at Memorial
Butchnell Creek at Highway 96
Wilkinson at Thompson
KFC at Chaffin Place
Malloy at Bridge Ave.
Old Nashville Highway at the railroad overpass
Sulphur Springs at Bridgette
College St. at Garrison

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: tnbassman on May 03, 2010, 02:21:09 PM
8 to 10 feet of water inside Opyland Hotel.

http://www.wkrn.com/
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: DocB on May 03, 2010, 02:27:27 PM
8 to 10 feet of water inside Opyland Hotel.

http://www.wkrn.com/
Not that this is a laughing matter, but the WKRN article refers people to the Gaylord website for updates, which upon opening has this prominently on their website:
Quote
Gaylord Opryland Resort

On the banks of the Cumberland, the awe-inspiring Gaylord Opryland invites you to experience all of the energy and excitement of Nashville, Music City USA! You´ll marvel at our 9-acres of indoor gardens and cascading waterfalls.
In all this misery, I couldn't help but chuckle just a little.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 03, 2010, 02:32:46 PM
Info concerning the Maury County area, from the Columbia Daily Herald website.

Quote
BREAKING NEWS: Officials keep eye on Duck, dam; Mt. Pleasant fears water contaminated; Red Cross mobilizes to help flood victims

From Staff Reports

Officials are watching the Old Columbia Dam amid concerns the rising river could compromise the nearly 90-year-old structure.

“The biggest concern is whether the dam will take the load from the flood and live for another day,” said Jim Clark, general manager of Columbia Power and Water Systems.

If the dam were to break, 60,000 people could be without water.

So far, CPWS has fared well during the flood and residents are under no advisories to conserve water, Clark said.

Clark said 2,000 customers lost power over the weekend for a short period. He said power has been restored. About two dozen homes had electricity cut off because of flooding.

As of 6 a.m. Monday, the Duck River had reached 44.6 feet and continues to rise, according to the National Weather Service. Weather officials expect the river to crest to 46 feet Monday night.

Riverwalk Park was completely swamped by the Duck River and the baseball fields near Riverside Elementary School were covered with water.

Columbia City Manager Paul Boyer said officials closed Riverside Drive Sunday, but no evacuations had taken place as of Monday morning.

The Columbia Public Works Department reported most of the roads and intersections in the Riverside community were shut down. Closures included 2nd Avenue at Carter, Conant and Stewart streets as well as portions of Riverside Drive.

Other roads closed Monday included north and south Bigby Drive, Experiment Station Lane, Lion Parkway at the 4H Center, Cherokee and 17th Street, Billy Lee Street and 8th and Glade Street.

MT. PLEASANT WATER WOES

Elsewhere, Mt. Pleasant residents are being urged to conserve water after a burst main line combined with torrential floodwaters to possibly contaminate the city’s water supply.

Interim City Manager Debbie McMullin said the town’s water supply is “critically low,” and officials had failed to locate the burst water main as of Monday morning.

McMullin said residents are urged to boil water and use it sparingly.

“We want people to err on the side of caution,” she said.

Bacterial tests have been taken by Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation officials, though results may not be back for a week.

SHELTER TO OPEN

An emergency shelter is expected to be opened in Maury County Monday.

Genie White, director of the American Red Cross of Maury County, said as of 9:30 a.m. she was trying to find a location for the shelter. She said her office is receiving dozens of phone calls, some from flood victims in Maury and surrounding counties and others from people across the country seeking information on loved ones in the area.

“It’s kind of exploded this morning,” she said. “Yesterday I was amazed at how calm it was ... but they’re coming out of the woodwork right now.”

White said her agency assisted at least 12 families over the weekend, placing several in the Columbia Days Inn.

“Some of them needed two rooms. We had one family that had four adults and four children,” she said.

About six people whose homes had flooded in the Sandy Hook area had come to the Red Cross office this morning seeking help.

Many victims lack flood insurance and are anxiously awaiting word from the state and federal government about exactly what types of disaster assistance may become available, White said.

Other residents have called the Red Cross offering to donate to the flood assistance effort.

“When we open a shelter we will let people know where they can bring things like water and blankets and cots,” White said. “If there are any people in the community that have had any Red Cross training at all we would really like for them to show up, because it looks like it’s going to take all the manpower we have.”

Residents who need assistance may call the American Red Cross of Columbia at (931) 388-3500.

If you have information or photographs related to this weekend's flood damage in Maury and surrounding counties, please send them to The Daily Herald at newsroomc@c-dh.net.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Susan in Macon on May 03, 2010, 02:40:39 PM
From a friend of mine in Smith Co re: Cordell Hull Dam - they have started lowering the gates. 1 ft a couple of hours ago and will probably lower them another ft later on this afternoon. Center Hill is not spilling and will not as long as Cordell Hull has their gates open.

Cumberland River in Carthage is at 46 ft.  At 47ft - Floods 300 acres of farmland...many homes...industrial plants...city streets as well as the the sewage and water treatment plants
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 02:47:04 PM
LP Field is filling up with water....YIKES.....

With temps hitting in the mid-80's this week..I thought about mosquito concerns too.


Thanks everyone for reporting from your local areas...
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 03, 2010, 02:58:33 PM
Most of the creeks have went down here and what they have left behind is incredible. We have been out this morning and have saw many vehicles in trees, turned up sidedown in fields and laying in receeding creeks. We saw homes off their foundations and completly dismantled. As the creeks go down the Buffalo river is coming up and it has spread out over taking hundreds of homes. Right in Linden between 50-100 homes are 8-10 feet deep in water.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: shaq725 on May 03, 2010, 02:59:24 PM
According to WKRN, the Fox 17 people are being evacuated.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ChrisPC on May 03, 2010, 03:19:11 PM
According to WKRN, LP Field is now underwater.  :o
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 03:23:16 PM
According to WKRN, LP Field is now underwater.  :o

Bridgestone Arena is starting to flood...geez...

25' of water in the basement of The Schremerhorn (sp?)
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: DocB on May 03, 2010, 03:25:02 PM
>speechless<
(http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4061/4576123440_7b84f5df6f_b.jpg)
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 03:43:18 PM
Quote
Civil Emergency Message
TNC003-005-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-043-049-051-055-061-081-
083-085-087-099-101-103-111-117-119-125-127-133-135-137-141-147-
149-159-161-165-169-175-177-181-185-187-189-032345-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS PERSIST IN PARTS OF WEST AND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DESPITE THE FACT THAT RAINS HAVE ENDED.

STATE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ADVISING THAT TRAVEL
CONTINUES TO BE HAZARDOUS ON MANY HIGHWAYS AND OTHER ROADS DUE TO
FLOODING IN WEST AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LOCAL ROAD AND STATE
HIGHWAY CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY LOW-LYING AREA.

DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
FLOODED ROADWAYS. DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOODWATERS.

MOTORISTS VIOLATING ROADBLOCKS OR ROAD CLOSURES ARE SUBJECT TO
CITATION BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

STAY OUT OF FLOODWATERS BECAUSE SEWAGE COLLECTION SYSTEMS AND
PLANTS HAVE BEEN OVERWHELMED RESULTING IN UNTREATED WASTEWATER MIXING
WITH THE FLOODWATERS.

PEOPLE WHOSE MUNICIPAL DRINKING WATER SERVICE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED
SHOULD CONTACT THEIR COUNTY OFFICIALS ABOUT BOTTLED WATER OR
PURCHASE COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE WATER. PEOPLE WITH PRIVATE WELLS
SHOULD MONITOR THEIR WATER TO MAKE SURE IT IS NOT CLOUDY. IF YOU
NOTICE A CHANGE IN APPEARANCE OR TASTE...BOIL THE WATER FOR AT
LEAST 5 MINUTES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.


Re-issued...and yes....I'm in awe of the pictures I'm seeing too.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 03, 2010, 03:57:18 PM
River is still rising in CKV.  More areas are being shut down.  Looks like traffic has slowed down a lot on Madison St.

Lots of rumours about the water getting cut off and the interstate getting closed. 
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ChrisPC on May 03, 2010, 04:26:02 PM
OHB is still closed in Hermitage, obviously.
(http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-sjc1/hs356.snc3/29407_1128378145551_1710146542_244550_6835185_n.jpg)

BTW, WSMV just showed some of my photos on-air.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 04:28:12 PM
They are controlling the Dam releases....Areas that didn't receive as much rain (Wolf Creek, Cordell Hull, Percy Priest...to a lesser extent) will hold for a longer period..

(WKRN)
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 04:29:33 PM
OHB is still closed in Hermitage, obviously.
(http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-sjc1/hs356.snc3/29407_1128378145551_1710146542_244550_6835185_n.jpg)

BTW, WSMV just showed some of my photos on-air.

Probably have seen some of those today...I've felt like a media sweep today...

Nice work on the photos..
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 04:35:53 PM
The Cumberland is now expected to crest at 52.5'

water use limited...

Praying....for everyone.

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 03, 2010, 04:49:07 PM
The county officials are calling for the residents of Lafayette and Red Boiling Springs to undergo a period of voluntary water conservation. They say the drinking water is fine, but they can't keep up the "check-ups" as much as they would like and are telling everyone just to not go overboard on the water usage.

You guys may remember me saying yesterday The Palace, a nursing home in Red Boiling Springs, was evacuated due to the rising flood waters. Well they have been brought back to that building today and all is well I believe.

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 04:56:41 PM
A little over an hour ago, we got the automated message saying that Rutherford County Schools were open tomorrow, but I just received a breaking email from the Daily News Journal that the Sheriff's Dept re-evaluated road conditions and decided to close afterall.

Like places everywhere in the state, we have many creeks and "little bridges"..With the Stones River still pulsing up too, it's probably a good decision.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 05:10:22 PM
Clarksville Street Closures

http://www.cityofclarksville.com/construction/index.php

I know it says construction but it is keeping street info up to date.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 03, 2010, 05:27:54 PM
Well...the Music City Art Council's funky looking art piece (looked like roller coaster tracks) on the edge of the Cumberland River has collapsed...one thing right after the other.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: VandyMachine on May 03, 2010, 05:30:27 PM
Well...the Music City Art Council's funky looking art piece (looked like roller coaster tracks) on the edge of the Cumberland River has collapsed...one thing right after the other.
I never could decide wether I liked that or not, guess I don't have to worry about it anymore... ::wow::
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 03, 2010, 05:31:59 PM
I never could decide wether I liked that or not, guess I don't have to worry about it anymore... ::wow::

I liked it, made people wonder what it was...well, Mother Nature took care of that. :o
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 05:38:03 PM
I never could decide wether I liked that or not, guess I don't have to worry about it anymore... ::wow::

I wasn't particularly fond of it, but as someone who can appreciate the creative process, I bet the artist is just sickened.  Very sad..It just doesn't stop.

 :'( :(
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 03, 2010, 05:41:15 PM
I wasn't particularly fond of it, but as someone who can appreciate the creative process, I bet the artist is just sickened.  Very sad..It just doesn't stop.

 :'( :(

I can't find a picture of it, can someone else try searching for one? Thanks in advance!

EDIT: Nevermind, I found one.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: weatherowl on May 03, 2010, 05:50:21 PM
River is still rising in CKV.  More areas are being shut down.  Looks like traffic has slowed down a lot on Madison St.

Lots of rumours about the water getting cut off and the interstate getting closed. 


Any information regarding I-24 being open or closed in Clarksville/Montgomery Co. would be much appreciated.  Thanks so much...
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 03, 2010, 05:53:56 PM
I am sad to report that the father and daughter from Perry Co have been found on the creek bank not far from where there house was swept away. Both are confirmed fatalities in this awful weather event. I've spent a lot of time worrying about material possessions over the last few days but this makes all of those things seem meaningless, its so sad to hear about the loss of life no matter where their from, especially when their just teenage kids with their whole life ahead of them.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: VandyMachine on May 03, 2010, 05:56:30 PM
When I heard of that, I was afraid that would be the case.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 03, 2010, 05:56:53 PM

Any information regarding I-24 being open or closed in Clarksville/Montgomery Co. would be much appreciated.  Thanks so much...

A friend of mine said it was closed between Exit 8 and 11 due to the river lapping up on the road surface.  I haven't found an official source that confirms this, though.  At 1100 today, the water was only 5' below the bridge so it wouldn't surprise me.

edit: unfortunately, our wedding venue is right on the river and of course it's flooded.  Hope they get it fixed by September.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 03, 2010, 07:22:24 PM
I'm going to call it an evening here..keep updating those of you especially in the outlying areas,..and in West TN--we haven't heard too much from you all today.

It's been overwhelming all around.  I won't be able to be here much tomorrow until late. 

Be safe, be prayerful.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 03, 2010, 07:38:02 PM
Looks like the Cumberland river has crested at 51.86 feet. Latest Observation shows a slight drop in the level.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ChrisPC on May 03, 2010, 08:20:21 PM
I am sad to report that the father and daughter from Perry Co have been found on the creek bank not far from where there house was swept away.

WSMV was also reporting two bodies found in Belle Meade. :(
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on May 03, 2010, 08:49:48 PM
I liked it, made people wonder what it was...well, Mother Nature took care of that. :o

Not a big fan of GHOSTS, maybe the next one can be GOATS! :)
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: StormNine on May 03, 2010, 08:59:03 PM
Quote
KYC055-040700-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
CRITTENDEN COUNTY KY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
752 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
CRITTENDEN COUNTY KY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE CUMBERLAND RIVER...
ESPECIALLY IN THE CITY OF DYCUSBURG...ARE ADVISED TO EVACUATE
IMMEDIATELY DUE TO RAPIDLY RISING WATER.

$$

Problems in West KY as well.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on May 03, 2010, 09:08:36 PM
Check out Percy Priest's current elevation above high pool. Appears dam wasn't designed for more than 513 ft. It's at 503 now.

http://www.lrn.usace.army.mil/hh/resplots/jpp_a.html
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on May 03, 2010, 09:22:46 PM
Knew it wouldn't be long before the NITWIT (AGW) gang would be blaming the Nashville Flood on their beloved religion of Climate Change.

@danwhnt on Twitter says: "13 inches of rain in Nashville over 2 days. Were the amazing floods #climatechange related? http://bit.ly/3EPgCZ"

Then he links his web site with the 'facts'.....

There will be time to argue that, but these guys lose credibility every single time they blame a single event on Climate Change while screaming that a BIG SNOW or BIG COLD SNAP doesn't mean a thing. I can hear them now "Weather Isn't Climate"....unless, of course, it fits their agenda....

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Jilly on May 03, 2010, 09:31:07 PM
pics from kingston springs
http://see.kingstonsprings.org/index.php?gallery=events&collection=flood-2010
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 03, 2010, 09:36:07 PM
From Mark Rose...

Quote
000
FXUS64 KOHX 040200
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
900 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

.UPDATE...PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING, WITH LIGHT WINDS, FALLING DEW POINTS, AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETTLING IN. AMAZING HOW EVERYTHING CAN BE SO QUIET AFTER
THE TUMULTUOUS WEEKEND WE HAD.

CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, SO AM NOT PLANNING ANY UPDATES.
STILL LOOKING FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN ALL THE GROUND
MOISTURE.

AM SO TIRED OF RAIN THAT I EARLIER THREATENED TO PULL ALL POP`S
OUT OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST, BUT THAT WOULDN`T BE METEOROLOGICALLY
SOUND. AT LEAST THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ISN`T UNTIL FRIDAY, SO
ENJOY THE WEEK, EVERYONE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WARNING FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU UNTIL 600 PM TUESDAY.
&&

$$

ROSE

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ajatwister on May 03, 2010, 10:09:09 PM
does anyone know of any satellite photos taken of nashville and surrounding areas today??
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 03, 2010, 10:42:11 PM
Governor Bredesen requested that 52 counties in TN be declared a disater area. I believe all of West TN and most of Middle were included.

Waters are receding along the Loosahatchie in Arlington, but are rising along the Wolf River. Not sure how accurate this news report is, but Germantown Pkwy bridge may be overtopped with the crest tomorrrow.

Also, as if Millington needed anything else after much of the town flooded, looters have now made an apprearance. Unbelievable, but predictable.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ChrisPC on May 03, 2010, 10:47:23 PM
Check out Percy Priest's current elevation above high pool. Appears dam wasn't designed for more than 513 ft. It's at 503 now.

http://www.lrn.usace.army.mil/hh/resplots/jpp_a.html

I was there today, and it looked like the water was only 10 feet below the road. Thankfully, WSMV just reported the Priest spillway is now open.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: toastido on May 03, 2010, 10:57:02 PM
Just got reports from friends in the area that ALL of the Rivergate area and Goodlettesville have lost power now.

EDIT: Nevermind, reporting now that the power is back on.  Report of the outage was around 30 minutes ago though.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 04, 2010, 05:07:17 AM
If wolf creek dam doesn't hold it would be Nashville's Katrina

I think what we've just experienced was Nashville's Katrina.
Title: Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 04, 2010, 05:59:25 AM
I think what we've just experienced was Nashville's Katrina.

I agree with you TS, not everyday do you hear the Army Corp of Engineers call floods 1 in every 1000 years like they are calling this one.

Again we are praying for you, TS, and the many others affected by this disaster.

 
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 04, 2010, 07:02:04 AM
I got into the house late yesterday after the water had receded.  The water line inside the house is near 6 feet (keeping in mind that the floor is above the ground by a couple of feet).

Furniture and everything has been tossed all over the place, as things floated all over the house.  I found random DVDs in my bathroom that floated in from another room.  I'll be back there today to begin taking more stuff out.  Then, we'll begin gutting it.

The car is covered with mud inside and out from bumper to bumper.  I have to get a few things out of it.  That car will never be driven again.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Charles L. on May 04, 2010, 09:05:23 AM
Sorry to hear TS...:( I hope you have a swift recovery process.

Here is a list of road closures in Macon County alone.

Addison Hollow
Barber Hollow Road
Barefoot Road
Beck Lane
Ben Road
Buck Hanes Road
Bush Road
Claiborne Lane (at Carter Branch)
Clifty Road
Coleman Lane
Collidge Road
Copperhead Lane (intersection Long Hungry)
Dark Hollow
Gann Hollow
Gas Hollow Road
Green Valley Road
Haynestown Bridge
Holder Branch Road
Howell Road
Howt Owl Lane (off New Harmony Road)
Hoskins Hollow Road
Howell Road (2164)
Kemp Circle
Lick Branch Road
Long Creek Bridge
McJury Lane
Middle Fork Road (bridge)
Morris Lane
North Springs Road
Poplar Grove (intersection Buckhanes)
Poplar Grove (bottom of hill)
Puncheon Creek (at Green Valley (Kevin Woods))
Puncheon Creek
Richardson Road (where it turns into gravel)
Salt Lick Road (Gravel section)
Shockley Hill Road (intersection of Green Valley)
South Long Creek (Wilma Bandy)
South Oldham Lane
Sullivan Hollow
Toney Road
Trammel Creek
Tucker Road
West Fork Road
Wilderness Lane (private)
Wilmore Hollow Road
Wixtown Road
Woodard Road (Gene Beasley)

That makes 47 roads closed or heavily damaged in Macon County...I don't see how we can go back to school tomorrow like the director wants us to do. School buses can not go down these roads, even if it is one or two pavement areas out.

And too add, the officials don't see us getting all this cleaned up for several months, I've even heard one say up to 8 months if not longer.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: DocB on May 04, 2010, 09:07:47 AM
I got into the house late yesterday after the water had receded.  The water line inside the house is near 6 feet (keeping in mind that the floor is above the ground by a couple of feet).

Furniture and everything has been tossed all over the place, as things floated all over the house.  I found random DVDs in my bathroom that floated in from another room.  I'll be back there today to begin taking more stuff out.  Then, we'll begin gutting it.

The car is covered with mud inside and out from bumper to bumper.  I have to get a few things out of it.  That car will never be driven again.

I cannot imagine what you and your family must be going through. Just hope everyone near you is ok and remain so during the cleanup.

I do know that sometimes we can be amazed at how we muster strength and motivation to dig out from things like this. Just keep your chin up.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on May 04, 2010, 09:56:15 AM
I got into the house late yesterday after the water had receded.  The water line inside the house is near 6 feet (keeping in mind that the floor is above the ground by a couple of feet).

Furniture and everything has been tossed all over the place, as things floated all over the house.  I found random DVDs in my bathroom that floated in from another room.  I'll be back there today to begin taking more stuff out.  Then, we'll begin gutting it.

The car is covered with mud inside and out from bumper to bumper.  I have to get a few things out of it.  That car will never be driven again.

Wow Thunder...I am so sorry...

Know that you all are in our thoughts over here on the Highland Rim.......
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: toastido on May 04, 2010, 10:31:13 AM
We (well, my parents) were FINALLY able to get in to Bellevue today to check on my grandparents whom we have had zero communication with since saturday evening (they live off of coley davis road).  Turns out their house was fine, water made it all the way up the yard to the back door, but never made it into the house.  They still have power, but phone lines are still down.

I also finally got in contact with my friends who live off of Blue Hole RD in antioch - turns out they were just far enough back to only have the water reach their garage and yard, but it didn't get into their house either.  Their power and internet service has been in and out, so they were finally able to charge up a cell phone enough to make contact and let people know they are OK as well. 

Scary weekend...  My thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected.  I may try to make it into town this weekend to visit with friends and family in Nashville.  We shall see.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 04, 2010, 12:06:15 PM
Water is going down in Northern Shelby County...and here come the scammers. Those affected need to be careful as they are out in full force here.

The Wolf River is on the rise today, and parts of Collierville may be threatened.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 04, 2010, 12:38:53 PM
The Cumberland at CKV has crested today at about 65.5'.  It's not forecast to recede past "Major Stage" until noon on Thursday.  Incredibly, the water has risen since yesterday.  Some parts of the flood have risen about 6'.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 04, 2010, 01:59:16 PM
So far...MEG has confirmed 6 tornadoes in their CWA.

EF3 in Benton...Tippah Counties Mississippi and Hardeman County Tennessee (27 mile track, 3 fatalities).
EF2 in McNairy County Tennessee.
EF2 in Lafayette County Mississippi (1 fatality).
EF1 in Panola County Mississippi.
EF1 in Cross County Arkansas.
EF1 in Poinsett County Arkansas.

Additional tornadoes are likely to be confirmed as surveys continue...
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ChrisPC on May 04, 2010, 02:16:16 PM
The water is going down here in Hermitage, and now the people and businesses are cleaning up. The Target shopping center that was flooded is dry now. Some backroads are still flooded, and OHB is still underwater in one spot.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 04, 2010, 02:26:47 PM
Sad to report that the city of Dyersburg has taken a very severe hit...the North Fork Forked Deer River rose rapidly in the last 24 hours well above forecasted levels...and is nearing the record of 30.9 feet in the historic floods of 1937. The current stage is 30.5 feet and is forecast to just exceeed the record at about 31 feet now by this time tomorrow.

Memphis's WMC is reporting that 600 homes and businesses in and around the city have flooded...and the waters again haven't quite reached crest.

Additionally...downstream into the South Fork Forked Deer River at Halls...the river is currently cresting at major and record levels...one foot above the previous record of 15.2 feet in 1975...at 16.2 feet. Flooding is not quite as severe as in Dyersburg...but still very serious.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 04, 2010, 05:30:12 PM
WMC chopper video shows almost the entire city of Dyersburg is underwater...a major sandbagging operation is underway to protect the few areas of the city left dry...
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Eric on May 04, 2010, 05:40:36 PM
Does anybody know of a website or has info concerning donation drop-off points for food, clothes, supplies and the like?  I'm sure the Red-Cross will accept them, but I'd like to know of other options.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 04, 2010, 06:01:16 PM
WREG reports a flooding related death just discovered in Gibson County...
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 04, 2010, 06:18:39 PM
The AWOS in Dyersburg has stopped reporting as it is now underwater...
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 04, 2010, 06:25:12 PM
MEG now confirming an EF-2 tornado in Gibson County Tenneseee...

Additionally...one new flooding fatality to report in Carroll County...further increasing the state death toll...
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 04, 2010, 06:32:23 PM
Does anybody know of a website or has info concerning donation drop-off points for food, clothes, supplies and the like?  I'm sure the Red-Cross will accept them, but I'd like to know of other options.
Have you checked the local Nashville media websites? The Memphis stations are posting drop-off points on theirs (and actually two of the stations are holding their own drives tomorrow)
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Eric on May 04, 2010, 06:44:25 PM
Have you checked the local Nashville media websites? The Memphis stations are posting drop-off points on theirs (and actually two of the stations are holding their own drives tomorrow)

I'll do that later on I guess....been busy today ranging from the hospital, to HR, to my office, and fixing dinner.  I'd like to do SOMETHING...we've got oodles of baby clothes and food here that I know SOMEBODY could use.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Woodvegas on May 04, 2010, 07:00:02 PM
Does anybody know of a website or has info concerning donation drop-off points for food, clothes, supplies and the like?  I'm sure the Red-Cross will accept them, but I'd like to know of other options.

http://www.hon.org/HomePage/index.php/home.html
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Susan in Macon on May 04, 2010, 08:40:21 PM
I drove to Carthage today to take some games for the shelter there.  We then drove around the city and was amazed at the damage.  There are neighborhoods still cut off (or at least I wasn't going to attempt to get to them).  We are suppose to have school tomorrow but I don't see how. 
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ajatwister on May 04, 2010, 10:31:24 PM
Im sickened with the fact of little attention of nashville flooding. Talk to family NYC and they didnt even know that it was this bad until today. sad.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ChrisPC on May 05, 2010, 12:58:46 AM
Im sickened with the fact of little attention of nashville flooding. Talk to family NYC and they didnt even know that it was this bad until today. sad.

An old childhood friend of mine saw my flood photos on Facebook and actually asked where it was; she had no idea. NBC finally made it the second story on their news Tuesday, and even had a reporter downtown. It had barely made the third story until then. They actually reported for more than 15 seconds on it, showing Opry Mills, Opryland Hotel, and downtown flooding. They even talked to a homeowner who had major flooding.  
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 05, 2010, 05:53:09 AM
Yesterday was a very productive day.  With the help of 25-30 volunteers (mostly church connections), we completely emptied the entire house, removed the carpet, and gutted most of the walls.  I filed with FEMA last night after we were officially declared a federal disaster area.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: bigalpha on May 05, 2010, 06:27:52 AM
Yesterday was a very productive day.  With the help of 25-30 volunteers (mostly church connections), we completely emptied the entire house, removed the carpet, and gutted most of the walls.  I filed with FEMA last night after we were officially declared a federal disaster area.

Wow, you aren't joking about being productive.  Best of luck to you, TS!
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Scot on May 05, 2010, 07:50:25 AM
The attached link is to an article that truly says a lot about the community we live in.  It is a very good read.  We aren't like other areas of the country which is why this hasn't gotten much publicity.  We handle situations like this in a way that should make us proud.

http://www.section303.com/we-are-nashville-4366
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 05, 2010, 07:59:14 AM
Yesterday was a very productive day.  With the help of 25-30 volunteers (mostly church connections), we completely emptied the entire house, removed the carpet, and gutted most of the walls.  I filed with FEMA last night after we were officially declared a federal disaster area.

I remember Katrina cleanup well, and you are moving fast! Water clean-up is no joke. It is some of the hardest work I have ever done. Just remember, on the brighter and more humorous side, you will probably (and hopefully) never get another chance to take a sledgehammer and bash in sheetrock again. It is a good stress reliever. Praying for you friend.

Also on a lighter note, here is a storm story about a dog rescue this weekend in Memphis (I am a huge dog fan)

http://www.wreg.com/news/wreg-dog-stuck-sinkhole,0,7037732.story

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: StormNine on May 05, 2010, 09:11:01 AM
Yesterday was a very productive day.  With the help of 25-30 volunteers (mostly church connections), we completely emptied the entire house, removed the carpet, and gutted most of the walls.  I filed with FEMA last night after we were officially declared a federal disaster area.

Hope and pray and wish the best for you, your family, and everyone in TN are surrounding areas that are being affected by this historic event.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 05, 2010, 11:17:16 AM
WSMV has a story on their main page about the two killed in Perry Co. Very sad story, I tried to put a link to it on here earlier but with my wonderful internet naturally I cant get it to work. I have been wondering if aid will be given to farmers who have lost crops that they have already planted and live stock. I have talked to people who have lost hundreds of acres of crops that they have just planted and dozens of cows, horses, and pigs. The financial impact this is going to have on people who make their living in agriculture is going to be crippling.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: weatherowl on May 05, 2010, 11:39:36 AM
I got an email from United Way of Rutherford and Cannon County in collaboration with First Bank in Murfreesboro and the Salvation Army.  They are packing a trailer from the parking lot of First Bank in Murfreesboro.  It is the main offices of First Bank on Memorial Blvd. across from the MAC.  These are also the offices of United Way.  The email said that the trailer would be open for drop-offs from Tuesday at 2:00 through the next several days.  They were specifically asking for bottled water, diapers, formula, and cleaning products.  Just thought that I would share... 
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 05, 2010, 12:24:39 PM
Another person has been found dead here. I don't know many details, just that it is an older lady and she was found near where the other two were found.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Jilly on May 05, 2010, 03:59:28 PM
NASA satellite before/after pictures
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=43879
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ajatwister on May 05, 2010, 04:06:44 PM
I want to thank all you guys for predicting this flood. you all did such a great job
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 05, 2010, 04:12:18 PM
I have recorded 18.19 inches of rain so far in 2010. Some people in west TN got at least that much if not more this weekend. Kinda puts it in perspective.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Eric on May 05, 2010, 05:17:57 PM
I want to thank all you guys for predicting this flood. you all did such a great job

I'm not sure WE predicted anything.  I don't think ANY of us knew it was going to get as bad as it did.  Yeah, the HPC precip. accum. maps showed a sizable bulls-eye over the area, but there's no way anybody could've seen the total amounts doubling, in some places tripling, the progged output.  There's a big difference between interpreting model data and forecasting/predicting per se.  I'd like to think WE as a forum do a rather decent job at interpreting model data...we'll leave the forecasting/predicting to the experts.   ;D
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: toastido on May 05, 2010, 05:25:42 PM
I'm not sure WE predicted anything.  I don't think ANY of us knew it was going to get as bad as it did.  Yeah, the HPC precip. accum. maps showed a sizable bulls-eye over the area, but there's no way anybody could've seen the total amounts doubling, in some places tripling, the progged output. 

This is quite true.  Generally speaking, the HPC precip maps OVERFORECAST the amount of rain for a particular system.  Unfortunately, in this case, they massively UNDERFORECAST the totals..
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 05, 2010, 05:47:59 PM
From MEG...

Quote

...BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF THE CONFIRMED TORNADOES SO FAR FOR THE MAY
1-2 OUTBREAK...TOTAL NOW UP TO 13...



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MEG/PNSMEG
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 05, 2010, 06:27:38 PM
Quote
...PRELIMINARY EF-1 TORNADO IN SHELBY COUNTY TENNESSEE...

AN EF1 TORNADO SPUN UP AT 1047 PM SATURDAY MAY 1 JUST WEST OF
HIGHWAY 51 ON MICRO RD AND TRACKED NORTHEAST TO HIGHWAY 51. THE
STORM TRACK WAS AROUND 1/2 MILE LONG AND THE WIDTH WAS AROUND 100
YARDS. A COUPLE WOODEN POLES WERE BLOWN DOWN AND TREES WERE BLOWN
DOWN AND TWISTED.

DAMAGE TRACK

" I hate these polygons, they are worthless and confusing"
" This storm now has a VTI of 6.4 in Shelby Co and is losing intensity"
" The severe weather threat is about over for the day"
" I knew we had the right track on this storm all along"
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 05, 2010, 06:36:09 PM
Sad news continues....the first flooding fatality in Shelby County

http://www.wmctv.com/Global/story.asp?S=12429930
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: toastido on May 05, 2010, 06:57:25 PM
" I hate these polygons, they are worthless and confusing"
" This storm now has a VTI of 6.4 in Shelby Co and is losing intensity"
" The severe weather threat is about over for the day"
" I knew we had the right track on this storm all along"


Famous words of DB?
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: toastido on May 06, 2010, 08:08:32 AM
Just wanted to throw a little humor in, to keep our wits about this:

Apparently "Record-setting" wasn't enough. CNN had to invent the term "Tecord-setting" to accurately describe the flooding.

(http://twitpic.com/show/thumb/1li6sb.png) (http://twitpic.com/1li6sb)

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: ChrisPC on May 06, 2010, 11:24:15 AM
Speaking of CNN, WKRN reported late last night that they finally decided to show up. Anderson Cooper is supposed to be live from Nashville tonight.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: StormNine on May 07, 2010, 01:14:36 PM
1.5 Billion Dollars worth of damage is estimated in Nashville alone.  I got this from News 5.

Usually our most destructive events are in the millions, and to have an event do a billion dollars worth of damage esp. in one city/county is words can't describe it.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 07, 2010, 01:42:42 PM
1.5 Billion Dollars worth of damage is estimated in Nashville alone.  I got this from News 5.

Usually our most destructive events are in the millions, and to have an event do a billion dollars worth of damage esp. in one city/county is words can't describe it.

That amount doesn't even include infrastructure and the areas they haven't checked...just early estimates to businesses and the homes they've checked.

A stunning number to one county...will shudder to see the number for the entire state.

 :(
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Curt on May 07, 2010, 05:33:06 PM
Next 5 days starting to look wetter per HPC

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif)
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 09, 2010, 06:21:53 AM
Well, I have a skeleton of a house now, and FEMA came out yesterday.  The interior of the house consists of studs, joists, and crawlspace.

Once it's dried out enough, I'll start the rebuilding process.

Here are pics of the house and car from earlier:  http://picasaweb.google.com/DCRPics/Flood (http://picasaweb.google.com/DCRPics/Flood).

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Eric on May 09, 2010, 08:12:34 AM
Well, I have a skeleton of a house now, and FEMA came out yesterday.  The interior of the house consists of studs, joists, and crawlspace.

Once it's dried out enough, I'll start the rebuilding process.

Here are pics of the house and car from earlier:  http://picasaweb.google.com/DCRPics/Flood (http://picasaweb.google.com/DCRPics/Flood).



Wow....I'm sure those pics only tell a portion of the story.  Not to make light of a bad situation, but I have to admit I laughed a little bit at the chair in the light fixture.  Sorry.....  ;)
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 09, 2010, 08:29:27 AM
Yeah... we laughed about that as well.  That one was actually at my next door neighbor's.  We had made so much progress at my house that we started helping over there as well.

Tornadoes can do some strange things.  Floods can as well.  I got my shed back from the adjacent property on Friday.  It had been washed about 50 yards away.  Surprisingly, it fared pretty well.  And, a wrecker was able to pull it out and tow it back to my place.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Eric on May 09, 2010, 09:12:15 AM
Yeah... we laughed about that as well.  That one was actually at my next door neighbor's.  We had made so much progress at my house that we started helping over there as well.

Tornadoes can do some strange things.  Floods can as well.  I got my shed back from the adjacent property on Friday.  It had been washed about 50 yards away.  Surprisingly, it fared pretty well.  And, a wrecker was able to pull it out and tow it back to my place.

Always a silver lining in EVERY situation..... ;D
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 09, 2010, 12:43:05 PM
 Well I am finally getting to check in here. I am sorry I did not let everyone know sooner that I am alive and well. I have been helping my family all week as well as many others. Thunder, I would like to extend my hand if you need anything as I am local and right now the street. If I would have known sooner I would have been there to help. To all the others that have been affects please do not be shy to PM me for anything. This has and will change my outlook on how I personally handle weather in the future.

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Memphis Weather on May 09, 2010, 10:36:54 PM
Well, I have a skeleton of a house now, and FEMA came out yesterday.  The interior of the house consists of studs, joists, and crawlspace.

Once it's dried out enough, I'll start the rebuilding process.

Here are pics of the house and car from earlier:  http://picasaweb.google.com/DCRPics/Flood (http://picasaweb.google.com/DCRPics/Flood).


Wow...that's just devastating to see...but its also good to see how well things are moving and that so many are coming out to help each other.

Certainly one of the toughest weeks in recent memory for so many here in this state...best of luck to all those who are having to repair and rebuild.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 10, 2010, 12:58:30 PM
....Geez.    This will be the last time I start a severe weather thread.    ::lookaround::
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Adam on May 10, 2010, 07:14:48 PM
....Geez.    This will be the last time I start a severe weather thread.    ::lookaround::
Little did you know that this was going to start into a really big event, but i could of happend to anyone.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 10, 2010, 07:59:14 PM
....Geez.    This will be the last time I start a severe weather thread.    ::lookaround::
I know how you feel. I started the one that lead to the flooding here and in Atlanta in September. Nobody knew how bad this would get when the thread was started though.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: toastido on May 12, 2010, 08:44:33 AM
Saw this over at TW and felt it only prudent to crosspost it:

(http://i41.tinypic.com/oq9k4n.gif)

Grrr...
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 12, 2010, 08:55:42 AM
Ugh.

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Sbeagles on May 12, 2010, 09:21:02 AM
Thats the last thing anyone around here wants to see. It wasn't to long ago that when I saw something about heavy rain and potential flooding that I just shrugged it off and went on without a thought but after seeing first hand what a real flood is, I will do that no more.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 12, 2010, 10:06:35 AM
Obviously, nobody wants to think about more rain, especially a potential heavy rain event.  

What I am wondering, though, is what would it take to actually cause the rivers to overflow their banks again and cause additional flooding?  I understand that any rain will aggravate the situation and hamper the cleanup efforts,  but from a hydrological standpoint, how much can we take before it becomes another big problem? 
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: toastido on May 12, 2010, 10:16:12 AM
Obviously, nobody wants to think about more rain, especially a potential heavy rain event.  

What I am wondering, though, is what would it take to actually cause the rivers to overflow their banks again and cause additional flooding?  I understand that any rain will aggravate the situation and hamper the cleanup efforts,  but from a hydrological standpoint, how much can we take before it becomes another big problem? 

That's all going to depend on current river/lake/stream levels currently.  Check out their current stages and depth...   Take the depth, compare it to what depth it has to be at to begin flooding, and that's how much rain it would take.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 12, 2010, 10:22:11 AM
That's all going to depend on current river/lake/stream levels currently.  Check out their current stages and depth...   Take the depth, compare it to what depth it has to be at to begin flooding, and that's how much rain it would take.

Makes sense, but, correct me if I'm wrong, 1 inch of rain will raise the depth of a river more than an inch, and another parameter would be the time frame the inch of rain fell, right?  An inch over the course of 2 days would be less threatening than if it fell in 3 hours.  Just wondering if there's a formula to figure this stuff out, but I guess I'd have to be a hydrologist...
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 12, 2010, 06:23:19 PM
Most of the floodwaters have washed out by now, so it would take a good bit of rain to cause more stream flooding, and a lot to cause the cumberland to flood again. Early next week could bring quite a bit of rain associated with a stalled frontal boundary, but right now it doesn't look like enough to cause more than minor flooding. Ground is pretty dry down here.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: dwagner88 on May 14, 2010, 11:18:49 AM
Really? I mean I know people have a need to look for someone to blame, but there were flood warnings up for all of middle tennessee all weekend. This is a little ridiculous.
http://www.tennessean.com/article/20100514/NEWS01/5140358 (http://www.tennessean.com/article/20100514/NEWS01/5140358)
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 14, 2010, 04:16:25 PM
OHX has a nice page here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=may2010epicfloodevent
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: Thundersnow on May 14, 2010, 04:30:58 PM
For the NWS to use the word "Epic" (which is typically thrown around by us weather ethusiasts) really says something.

1000 year flood-- wow.
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 14, 2010, 05:13:04 PM
Pep Boys (Charlotte Pike) Security Camera Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGXww36_R9c

*with apologies that I'm so lame that I've not figured out how to embed properly*
 ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: servocrow on May 14, 2010, 05:37:22 PM
Just got a broadcast message from the school system concerning FEMA.  It was a "If you were affected by the floods, or know someone...here's the number to call...website... Here's the person children need to talk to concerning school supplies."

Title: Re: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
Post by: WXRocker on May 14, 2010, 06:36:25 PM
Really? I mean I know people have a need to look for someone to blame, but there were flood warnings up for all of middle tennessee all weekend. This is a little ridiculous.
http://www.tennessean.com/article/20100514/NEWS01/5140358 (http://www.tennessean.com/article/20100514/NEWS01/5140358)Oy.  There are not enough signs to hand out to some people.