Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => TNWx Vault of Fame and Infamy => Topic started by: Extremewxlover on February 27, 2009, 07:19:49 AM

Title: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Extremewxlover on February 27, 2009, 07:19:49 AM
Where will the precipatation come from? the south or north. How many inches of snow could nashville get. will the roads be snowcovered by 12 am. any call maps?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Extremewxlover on February 27, 2009, 07:20:08 AM
What will the temps be in the evening
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 07:25:28 AM
Doh!  Someone finally did it.  :P

The precip will generally come in from the west, changing from rain to snow from northwest to southeast.

I think Nashville could get a slushy coating (like I usually say  ;) ).  But, if things go in our favor... it could be more.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Scot on February 27, 2009, 07:28:46 AM
It's official....now that a thread is started....we will get NOTHING!     ::guitar::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 27, 2009, 07:31:08 AM
Well, it's over...


Stick a .....

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_z-5fprZti7s/SLcxKpANqUI/AAAAAAAABsw/MAsZPzkS-us/s400/bacon_on_a_fork.jpg)

Hope N-villewx doesn't get upset that someone else started his thread...Hope he approves of the name. ;) :-*
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Scot on February 27, 2009, 07:35:43 AM
NCIS fan Servocrow?  I think it may be my favorite show these days.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Scot on February 27, 2009, 07:36:22 AM
I sure am glad I am not the one that started this thread and ruined the snow chance for everyone!  That would have to feel really bad!!!!    ::rofl::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Extremewxlover on February 27, 2009, 07:43:53 AM
for some reason, i'm sure about this one. i defintey beleive well get at least a coating.

remeber for last weeks snow system, that temps were froecasted to be in the 30's, then as the days went on, temps were forecasted all the way to the upper 50's. that's a pattern that i see and know that there won't be snow for days like last saturday.

but with this sytem, it's coming like some surprise. the cold air is very close, and the low will be to our south. i just hope that temps drop throught the day, and not rise because of warm gulf air.
the trend forecasat with this snow system, has been lowering the temps throughout the day. you remeber how that monday-tuday, that tmeps were forecasted to be in the mid 50's for satuday and only in the mid 30's saturday night, with a chance of snow. now temps areforecasted to be in the lower 40's with temps dropping thoeugh the afternoon.
i just hope it don't get any warmer than that, and hope that snow starts to fall way earlier with temps below freezing by 3pm, and prepcip continuing til sunday afternoon.
I BELEIVE WE WILL GET SNOW THIS TIME
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Scot on February 27, 2009, 07:53:58 AM
Come on....I really want a northwest trend.  After what has been done to us lately, I think it is only deserving! ::rant::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Scot on February 27, 2009, 08:29:25 AM
12z NAM seems to look a little better to me with some higher QPF in middle TN at times.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 27, 2009, 08:36:11 AM
12z NAM has a nice sweet spot right on top of Memphis at hr 42.   ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Scot on February 27, 2009, 09:35:40 AM
Now lets see what the 12z GFS says.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 27, 2009, 09:43:06 AM
Quote
Interesting to note that Saturday night’s snow event looks even more pronounced as secessive model runs have deepened the upper air low moving to our south tomorrow. These forecasts are tricky as a rule but Predictor puts down a rather good snow band right across middle Tennessee for tomorrow night. For what it is worth this is as much snow as Predictor has showed all season (a measly snow season to date).

This from Nashvillewx's Jeff Ray.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 27, 2009, 09:44:54 AM
12z GFS still show a patch of moisture out near Memphis.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bossfan2000 on February 27, 2009, 09:54:45 AM
12Z NAM accumulated snowfall maps show most of davidson count in the 2-3 inch range late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.

12+ inches in central NC...

(http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Scot on February 27, 2009, 09:55:19 AM
It makes me angry that places like North Georgia is going to get all of this snow and we hardly get anything.  What will it take to get a good snow here?  I mean really...what do we have to do??
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 10:00:43 AM
It makes me angry that places like North Georgia is going to get all of this snow and we hardly get anything.  What will it take to get a good snow here?  I mean really...what do we have to do??

It's no use to fret about anything at this point.  Just a simple jog of the low 50-75 miles will GREATLY impact who sees what and how much.  After tomorrow's 12z and 18z runs, we'll see who sees what and how much.  At that point, the low position should be hammered out and we'll need to start watching the temps to see how quickly they fall.  Don't get angry over a single run...it'll only make you angrier.   ;D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bossfan2000 on February 27, 2009, 10:01:54 AM
No kidding...I moved here from Atlanta 5 years ago this month...and I think if you total the snowfall from the last 5 years for Atlanta and BNA..they are probably close to the same, or Atlanta might jump ahead after this weekend. I'm beyond frustrated by that....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: WXHD on February 27, 2009, 10:02:52 AM
My mom just called, almost alarmed........ ::pondering::........ >:D

Mom: They say we're getting snow and maybe SOME accumulation.

Me: In Nashville? ::whistling::

Mom: Yeah.

Me: Tonight?

Mom: No, tomorrow evening.

Me: Really? Do you have bread?

Mom: I got some on Wednesday, maybe I should get more.

Me: What about milk? I think I only have a gallon left.

Mom: When I go to the store for bread, I'll get more milk and also get some for you.

Me: I filled up my gas yesterday. Do you think I should get more?

Mom: You might want to, you know how people get when they mention snow around here. OK, I'm going to go to the store before they run out of milk and bread, Love you!

Me: You too Mom! Thanks!  ::shrug::....::flag::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 10:05:35 AM
12Z GFS still shows West TN seeing more action than Middle TN, before the best precip moves through AL and GA.

And, the Carolinas still get slammed on this run as well.  Congrats to NC and SC... this could be a big one for them.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 10:09:59 AM
12Z GFS still shows West TN seeing more action than Middle TN, before the best precip moves through AL and GA.

And, the Carolinas still get slammed on this run as well.  Congrats to NC and SC... this could be a big one for them.
::shrug:: east tennessee :(
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bossfan2000 on February 27, 2009, 10:10:10 AM
There is a small bit of good news..

if you compare the 6z Sunday maps of both the NAM and the GFS...the 850 is 30-50 miles further NE in the 12z run compared to last nights 0z. It's a minor difference, but if the trend continues in the 0z tonight, it puts us back in a pretty good spot.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 27, 2009, 10:12:58 AM
My detailed analysis of the 12z GFS and its effects on middle and eastern tennessee:

(http://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r60/mr740ti/fail/millionaire_idiot_fail.jpg?t=1235751016)

the area of NC that already has a major snowfall this year gets another one and we get nothing

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 10:14:10 AM
::shrug:: east tennessee :(

If you take the run literally, not that great, sorry to say.

But, there's still time to watch the track shift one direction or the other.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 27, 2009, 10:18:13 AM
My mom just called, almost alarmed........ ::pondering::........ >:D

Mom: They say we're getting snow and maybe SOME accumulation.

Me: In Nashville? ::whistling::

Mom: Yeah.

Me: Tonight?

Mom: No, tomorrow evening.

Me: Really? Do you have bread?

Mom: I got some on Wednesday, maybe I should get more.

Me: What about milk? I think I only have a gallon left.

Mom: When I go to the store for bread, I'll get more milk and also get some for you.

Me: I filled up my gas yesterday. Do you think I should get more?

Mom: You might want to, you know how people get when they mention snow around here. OK, I'm going to go to the store before they run out of milk and bread, Love you!

Me: You too Mom! Thanks!  ::shrug::....::flag::


Give your Mom a hug, that is just sweet!!!!!

 ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 10:21:03 AM


(http://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r60/mr740ti/fail/millionaire_idiot_fail.jpg?t=1235751016)



That's hilarious.  ::rofl::

She even had to use lifelines to get to that point.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: WXHD on February 27, 2009, 10:25:33 AM
Check out the sideburns too!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 11:16:29 AM
Channel 12 WDEF says Snowy Sunday will measure snow in inches across East, TN!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 27, 2009, 11:20:44 AM
I still very much question temps and how much moisture this thing will have with it.  I think a lot of people could be disappointed because of temps except those close to the ULL.  This isnt going to be a wide area snow producer.  At least in my opinion, as of right now, which can change at a moments notice.   ::whistling::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Heath22 on February 27, 2009, 11:32:23 AM
So basically, Nashville might get a dusting to very small slushy coating, while west, south, and east of here will see 2 to 4 or even more. Even Atlanta is set to see up to foot. So again Nashville gets screwed. It seems to snow a circle around Nashville about once every 4 years or so and with the exception of 2003, just nothing more than an inch here period.  ::shrug:: ::bangingheadintowall::

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 27, 2009, 11:59:40 AM
atlanta a foot? really?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 12:00:49 PM
Nothing is set in stone with this system yet.  We're still in play.

And, I seriously doubt Atlanta gets a foot.

Parts of central North Carolina, on the other hand, might...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 27, 2009, 12:24:56 PM
The euro is officially my new best friend. just heard on eastern that it buries east tn, nw al, n ga, and all of nc. certainly not set in stone, but I have to like that trend. maybe the epic fail model (formerly known as the 12z GFS) will see the light. Go euro Go!

EDIT: about 1 inch qpf for most of east tn. deformation band sets up over the plateau and wallops us. I'm trying to temper my utter joy at this because its almost certainly too good to be true
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: lyngo on February 27, 2009, 12:32:24 PM
Folks, it will soon be "nowcast" time.  Upper level lows are notorious for throwing curveballs so take each model for what it's worth.  All will depend on exact track and who gets lucky enough to be under the heavier bands of snow as it rotates through.  My question is how much QPF does this thing spit out?  It will be a fun one to watch over the next 2 days!   ::coffee::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Heath22 on February 27, 2009, 12:46:12 PM
Folks, it will soon be "nowcast" time.  Upper level lows are notorious for throwing curveballs so take each model for what it's worth.  All will depend on exact track and who gets lucky enough to be under the heavier bands of snow as it rotates through.  My question is how much QPF does this thing spit out?  It will be a fun one to watch over the next 2 days!   ::coffee::

I hope this one has a big curveball. Otherwise we here in Middle will miss out.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 27, 2009, 12:51:01 PM
The euro is officially my new best friend. just heard on eastern that it buries east tn, nw al, n ga, and all of nc. certainly not set in stone, but I have to like that trend. maybe the epic fail model (formerly known as the 12z GFS) will see the light. Go euro Go!

EDIT: about 1 inch qpf for most of east tn. deformation band sets up over the plateau and wallops us. I'm trying to temper my utter joy at this because its almost certainly too good to be true

Not to be Debbie Downer, but I'd be very cautious in getting your hopes up.  Temps are going to be a struggle.  As you can see Chatty is warm by a long shot.  Bad thing is the Euro comes in 24 hr increments so you dont really know when your temps look good vs how much moisture is left.  Looks like the ULL goes from Central Ark to Atlanta. 

(http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/f48.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 27, 2009, 12:57:38 PM
this run of the euro splits the ULL and parks the stronger portion of it DIRECTLY over my head. if that were to verify, the cold air should come with it. but this is an outlier solution (and an odd one at that). I'm excited about this run, but I know the chances of it going down like that are slim. but still . ...  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 01:20:40 PM
The euro is officially my new best friend. just heard on eastern that it buries east tn, nw al, n ga, and all of nc. certainly not set in stone, but I have to like that trend. maybe the epic fail model (formerly known as the 12z GFS) will see the light. Go euro Go!

EDIT: about 1 inch qpf for most of east tn. deformation band sets up over the plateau and wallops us. I'm trying to temper my utter joy at this because its almost certainly too good to be true

 ::snowman:: ::wow:: ::guitar::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 27, 2009, 01:31:05 PM
I have been looking at the high resolution model. It makes a very detailed forecast, which is why it only goes up to 48hrs. Here's a look a simulation reflectivity. This would be all snow I believe.

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042l.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 27, 2009, 01:34:49 PM
That would look be good for west and western middle if that were to verify.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 01:35:52 PM
I have been looking at the high resolution model. It makes a very detailed forecast, which is why it only goes up to 48hrs. Here's a look a simulation reflectivity. This would be all snow I believe.

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042l.gif)


Correct.  Surface temps look to be freezing clean down to the TN/AL line.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 27, 2009, 01:46:22 PM
EURO buries me in East TN. oh please be right  ::snowman::

Gives me almost 1 FOOT.

How do you know it gives you a foot?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Matt on February 27, 2009, 01:47:41 PM
The Weather Channel shows 3-6" of snow for most of Middle Tennessee. Being as conservative as they are, seems a little premature. I foresee possibly that much east and south of here, but not here.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 27, 2009, 01:51:56 PM
The Weather Channel shows 3-6" of snow for most of Middle Tennessee. Being as conservative as they are, seems a little premature. I foresee possibly that much east and south of here, but not here.  ::shrug::
Was just about to say something about the Weather Channels outlook says most of Tennessee could see "several inches." WKRN have been very assertive in their view of the system.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 01:53:19 PM
Euro puts down 0.5-1" of liquid precip across N. AL and N. GA. 1" of liquid precip over Eastern TN

Posted on Talkweather.com

You need to quantify your statement.  What times?  What are the temps?  I think I read what you read and instead of using the 10:1 ratio, they were using a 6-8:1 ratio, which given it all falls as snow will be 6-8 inches.  Honestly, the only folks I believe see a foot are the folks in the mountains of NC and SC...not East TN.  Could I be wrong...sure, it's happened before.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 01:56:09 PM
You need to quantify your statement.  What times?  What are the temps?  I think I read what you read and instead of using the 10:1 ratio, they were using a 6-8:1 ratio, which given it all falls as snow will be 6-8 inches.  Honestly, the only folks I believe see a foot are the folks in the mountains of NC and SC...not East TN.  Could I be wrong...sure, it's happened before.

well excuse me sorry! i was just saying what someone posted over there...should have been more specific! i will be more lenient on posting next time so i dont get blowed up. :) k thanks!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bellatrixr on February 27, 2009, 01:59:20 PM
What do the models show (can't read them, sorry) for accumulation in southcentral KY?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 01:59:38 PM
well excuse me sorry! i was just saying what someone posted over there...should have been more specific! i will be more lenient on posting next time so i dont get blowed up. :) k thanks!

Well, when you post stuff like "East TN gets a FOOT" and not give a source...then you should expect to be called on it.  You've posted here long enough to know that.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 02:01:44 PM
What do the models show (can't read them, sorry) for accumulation in southcentral KY?

Hard to determine right now.  The exact placement of the low will determine who gets what when.  Currently, as the models have it now, southern middle and east TN get the majority of the heavy stuff and western and northern middle will see less.  If I had to guess, I'd prolly say 1-3"...and even that might be exaggerated.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 02:02:42 PM
http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=50770&pid=673831&st=1050&#entry673831

go there...thats what i was reading. sorry for going out on limbs!  ::whistling::

lol and yeah i have posted a long time! so sorry eric
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 02:13:46 PM
Latest EURO and GGEM (Canadian) looking better for snow in TN... will be interesting to see what the NAM and GFS do now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Scot on February 27, 2009, 02:14:54 PM
What you mean....there is some good news this late in the game?   ::guitar::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 02:15:08 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_036s.gif)
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_042s.gif)

18Z NAM
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bellatrixr on February 27, 2009, 02:15:48 PM
Hard to determine right now.  The exact placement of the low will determine who gets what when.  Currently, as the models have it now, southern middle and east TN get the majority of the heavy stuff and western and northern middle will see less.  If I had to guess, I'd prolly say 1-3"...and even that might be exaggerated.

Thanks. Fingers crossed for all of us...who like snow & deserve some.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 02:18:41 PM
18Z NAM showing greater QPF than 12Z run... Memphis area looking very interesting.  But, it still takes the best precip south of Middle and East TN.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 02:19:21 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_036s.gif)

18Z NAM shows West TN getting hammered

Wow...that little pocket looks wetter than it did this morning.  I believe the models might be trying to resolve some of their qpf issues they have had with more of the longer range runs.  As we get closer to the event, it seems as if the models' resolution is getting better in terms of qpf amounts.  That bodes very well for TN...all parts of TN.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Scot on February 27, 2009, 02:22:29 PM
Maybe it is just me but I don't think the models know exactly where the heavy precip will be.  I am hoping it is us!  I sure think we still got a pretty good chance of at least maybe a couple inches.  What do the rest of you think?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 02:22:32 PM
18Z NAM looks like quite a hit for north Alabama.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 02:22:40 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_048s.gif)

48HR hmm..
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 02:25:53 PM
Dang...looking at the NAM's simulated radar, Mid TN/East TN get the shaft and West TN gets bombed.  I'm not buying the NAM yet.  It is only the 18z and the 18z runs are on crack anyway.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 02:26:43 PM
Wow... North Georgia is getting pounded at 54 hours on the 18Z NAM.

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_054s.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 02:30:26 PM
Anybody else buying the suppression of the low all the way to the coast?

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif)

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 02:31:08 PM
Late word out of Huntsville per new AFD... a Winter Storm Watch is being considered.

Quote
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS REMAINS GOOD WITH THE VERY
STRONG UPPER LOW NOW DROPPING THROUGH WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PRESENT VERY STRONG -DIVQ AND RESULTING UVV
FIELDS SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z WHEN SOUNDING PROFILES
CONVERT RA/IP TO SN. THERE WILL BE STRONG UVV IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER
AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG QG AND KINEMATIC FORCING AND A DEEP TROWAL
SIGNATURE DOES LEND SOME CONCERN THAT CYCLOGENESIS MAY BE
UNDERESTIMATED...ESPECIALLY WITH A GOOD INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR
INCREASING THE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE SE U.S. EVEN SO...THE 09Z
SREF/12Z GFS/NAM RESULTS IN A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING STIFF
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20-30KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A QUICK LOOK
AT THE 12Z ECMWF EVEN REINFORCES THE CONCERN FOR AN IMPACT WINTER
EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF...ESPECIALLY OVER TN AND N AL
.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THIS SITUATION CAUTIOUSLY...BUT WE WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONSIDER A WINTER STORM WATCH EITHER TONIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY IF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECWMF...CONTINUE THIS
TREND
.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 02:41:52 PM
 ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 02:42:08 PM
North Georgia looks like the big winner on the 18Z NAM... even moreso now than the Carolinas.

Earlier, I discounted Atlanta receiving a foot.  But, now, according to this run, areas not that far from Atlanta may get just that.  ::wow::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 02:43:29 PM
OHX is biting...

Quote
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW, BUT A
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM, TRACK ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, THEN TURN BACK NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE MID STATE, BUT WILL KEEP US IN
THE COLD SECTOR AND ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PROBABLE FOR THE MID STATE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF NASHVILLE WHERE THE DYNAMICS WILL BE
GREATEST.

WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW NIGHT
.
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR SKIES TO FINALLY CLEAR
OUT, LEAVING US WITH A COLD NORTH WIND AND A WET GROUND.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 27, 2009, 02:44:16 PM
North Georgia looks like the big winner on the 18Z NAM... even moreso now than the Carolinas.

Its going to be tough down there...temps will be marginal at the ground.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 27, 2009, 02:44:45 PM
I don't think that means it's going to be better for us.  Bring on spring.  This one will be the ultimate punch in the gut when AL and GA get a good snow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 27, 2009, 02:44:56 PM
Anybody else buying the suppression of the low all the way to the coast?

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif)



Eric, is that the main low or the ULL?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Matt on February 27, 2009, 02:45:39 PM
Quick question...In times past, our (meaning Nashville) best chance for snow is from a low that tracks to our south on a Birmingham to Atlanta line. It seems as though this will be the scenario tomorrow night. What other factors will go into this storm to give us our best shot or no shot at all of accumulation?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 02:45:46 PM
Its going to be tough down there...temps will be marginal at the ground.  

Agreed.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Beth on February 27, 2009, 02:46:13 PM
Its amazing how hard it is to pin point the storm.  I think the whole southeast will get some snow.  But I don't think we will know who gets the big snows till probably tomorrow or after it is all over.  But it sure has been amazing watching all the runs!  Still keeping my  ::fingerscrossed:: that we hit the jackpot!  :)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 02:46:48 PM
Eric, is that the main low or the ULL?

I'm thinking it's the surface low.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 27, 2009, 02:47:46 PM
(http://i44.tinypic.com/pm4hg.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 02:47:55 PM
Its going to be tough down there...temps will be marginal at the ground.  

But, if the snow comes down as heavy as what that run implies, it could overcome marginal temps.  We're talking about a potential dynamic cooling event.

The NCEP site doesn't have surface temps available for the NAM though.  So, I don't know what it's showing for surface temps.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 27, 2009, 02:49:08 PM
Looks like the smokies may get a good snow out of this.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 02:50:16 PM
(http://i44.tinypic.com/pm4hg.gif)

Wow at that new HPC map... much of TN now within the 10% risk.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 02:50:54 PM
But, if the snow comes down as heavy as what that run implies, it could overcome marginal temps.

The NCEP site doesn't have surface temps available for the NAM though.  So, I don't know what it's showing for surface temps.

It's all determinate on how saturated the column is.  If it's relatively dry, they could see a good 2-3 drop in surface temps...if the snow comes down hard enough, like you said.

When correlating surface temps, I either have to find a skew-T or use the previous run of the GFS to look at surface temps.  It's not the best thing to look at, but it gives some semblance of temp trends.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 02:52:06 PM
MORRISTOWN GOING WITH EURO!

Quote
THIS STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BECOME A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS IT SEPARATES FROM THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS REVEAL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH RESULTS IN DIFFERING LOCATIONS FOR ITS ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN TAKES THE UPPER LOW ON A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF MODELS... WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THIS LATEST GFS RUN IS IN CONTRAST TO ITS EARLIER SOLUTIONS WHICH HAD PLACED THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WILL PLAN TO FOLLOW THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH PLACE THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AND ITS RESULTING HEAVIER PRECIP RATES) OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY CREATE SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS WHERE THE MORE INTENSE PRECIP DEVELOPS...AND THINK THAT RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS. IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL PLAN TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK REASONABLE. WILL TREND COLDER THAN GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 27, 2009, 02:52:21 PM
Gotta love how it leaves out the Nashville area.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 27, 2009, 02:52:58 PM
The HPC map basically just mimicks the models everyday.  Not a lot of use in that is there?  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 02:54:39 PM
Quote
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2009


CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...
LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVIL LE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...
MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPO RT...COSBY...
GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...
ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...
MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...
PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADI SONVILLE...
COKER CREEK...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...B ENTON...
DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...
ABINGDON
350 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2009 /250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009/

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE
AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. IF THE PATH OF
THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION...HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 02:55:04 PM
The HPC map basically just mimicks the models everyday.  Not a lot of use in that is there?  

If nothing else, it gives a synopsis of what the models are saying.

I wasn't aware whether it was autogenerated or if forecasters actually draw it up.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 02:55:10 PM
MORRISTOWN GOING WITH EURO!



Quote
HIS STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BECOME A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS IT
SEPARATES FROM THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS REVEAL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE ACTUAL
TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH RESULTS IN DIFFERING LOCATIONS FOR
ITS ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN TAKES THE
UPPER LOW ON A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF MODELS...
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS LATEST GFS RUN IS IN CONTRAST TO ITS EARLIER
SOLUTIONS WHICH HAD PLACED THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THUS...WILL PLAN TO FOLLOW THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH
PLACE THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AND ITS RESULTING HEAVIER PRECIP RATES)
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY CREATE
SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS WHERE
THE MORE INTENSE PRECIP DEVELOPS...AND THINK THAT RAIN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS. IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SO WILL PLAN TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS
FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK REASONABLE. WILL TREND COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW.

Where the deformation zone sets up will be crucial to who sees what and how much.  I like that Morristown is going out on a limb like that, but why are they choosing to do so just off the latest run of the GFS?  The 18z is bunk... ::shrug::

But, anywho, it's becoming clearer that most/all of the mid-south will see some white stuff fall...so that makes me a happy pappy.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 02:56:08 PM
The HPC map basically just mimicks the models everyday.  Not a lot of use in that is there?  

Ehh, it's more eye candy than anything, IMO.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 27, 2009, 02:57:33 PM
But, if the snow comes down as heavy as what that run implies, it could overcome marginal temps.  We're talking about a potential dynamic cooling event.

The NCEP site doesn't have surface temps available for the NAM though.  So, I don't know what it's showing for surface temps.

Even with that I think most places that far south will have a hard time slipping below freezing at the surface.  Except the mountains in NE Ga, maybe some higher elevations places in N Bama.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 27, 2009, 02:59:18 PM
If nothing else, it gives a synopsis of what the models are saying.

I wasn't aware whether it was autogenerated or if forecasters actually draw it up.

Ohh, I dont know if it is autogenerated either.  My statement may have sounded like I did know. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 02:59:37 PM
Do we need to issue a BOLO for Nashville_wx?  He is conspicuous by his absence...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 02:59:49 PM
It's all determinate on how saturated the column is.  If it's relatively dry, they could see a good 2-3 drop in surface temps...if the snow comes down hard enough, like you said.

When correlating surface temps, I either have to find a skew-T or use the previous run of the GFS to look at surface temps.  It's not the best thing to look at, but it gives some semblance of temp trends.

I've heard it's not only a matter of evaporational cooling.  But, when precip falls hard enough, it pulls down some of the 850MB colder air.  

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:00:50 PM
I've heard it's not only a matter of evaporational cooling.  But, when precip falls hard enough, it pulls down some of the 850MB colder air.  



I can live with that.  850 temps down that way are fully supportive of snow...you're right.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 03:02:23 PM
Ohh, I dont know if it is autogenerated either.  My statement may have sounded like I did know. 

If it is the case that actual forecasters from the HPC draw it up, then it's useful to know about it.

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 27, 2009, 03:05:26 PM
If it is the case that actual forecasters from the HPC draw it up, then it's useful to know about it.



Yep, but it still basically mimicks the model consensus.  It changes so much day to day. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 27, 2009, 03:06:30 PM
I've heard it's not only a matter of evaporational cooling.  But, when precip falls hard enough, it pulls down some of the 850MB colder air.  



They are very dynamic.  The one in December brought snow down to southern La. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 03:06:42 PM
Wow at that new HPC map... much of TN now within the 10% risk.
I think they need to extend their map farther west perhaps to the Ozarks. NE AR, and SE MO could get a decent snow out of this too.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 03:06:50 PM
Yep, but it still basically mimicks the model consensus.  It changes so much day to day. 

And, watching those changes or trends is the interesting part of this discussion... seeing this thing evolve toward one direction or the other.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 03:09:44 PM
I think they need to extend their map farther west perhaps to the Ozarks. NE AR, and SE MO could get a decent snow out of this too.

I think the percentages are for a minimum of 4 inches of snow.  If 2 inches were expected for an area, it probably wouldn't even be included within the line.  So, it's not supposed to just be showing any ole accumulating snow.  It shows the percent chance of warning-criteria or "heavy" snow for an area.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 03:11:23 PM
I think the percentages are for a minimum of 4 inches of snow.  If 2 inches were expected for an area, it probably wouldn't even be included within the line.  So, it's not supposed to just be showing any ole accumulating snow.  It shows the percent chance of warning-criteria or "heavy" snow for an area.
Well if you forecast 2-3" of snow for an area then there is still a slight chance that forecasts could be off or close to a margin of error. No more than a forecast of 10% though.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 27, 2009, 03:12:08 PM
SO as of right now, for knoxville,tn how many inches?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 27, 2009, 03:12:23 PM
And, watching those changes or trends is the interesting part of this discussion... seeing this thing evolve toward one direction or the other.

True.  I guess it is a quick and dirty for those who dont model read.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 27, 2009, 03:12:36 PM
Looking pretty good so far. Too bad MTEC came through and butchered our hill. I don't think I'll be able to sled down it unless I fix their mess. Why the heck can't they clean up after themselves?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 03:13:03 PM
SO as of right now, for knoxville,tn how many inches?

Don't ask us right now.  ;D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:13:14 PM
SO as of right now, for knoxville,tn how many inches?

As of this very moment...1-3".  It could change in 2 hours, but that's what you got now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: StormNine on February 27, 2009, 03:13:58 PM


Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHEAST ALABAMA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

KYZ001>003-006-009-MOZ108>110-112-114-280500-
/O.NEW.KPAH.WW.Y.0002.090228T0600Z-090228T1500Z/
FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-GRAVES-CALLOWAY-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-
MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...
MAYFIELD...MURRAY...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...
CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY.

THIS ADVISORY IS FOR COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM POPLAR
BLUFF MISSOURI...THROUGH MAYFIELD KENTUCKY...TO CADIZ KENTUCKY.

FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS
AND TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS A PERIOD
OF RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OR END SATURDAY
MORNING. A SEPARATE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

UP TO ONE TENTH INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ONE HALF INCH
OR LESS OF SLEET. THOUGH MINOR...THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL
CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

YORK


The first advisory.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 27, 2009, 03:14:21 PM
SO as of right now, for knoxville,tn how many inches?

0-3" would be my guess right now.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Franklin SnowKing on February 27, 2009, 03:14:32 PM
Well OHX is saying 1 to 2 inches for us in Middle Tennessee. Let's hope the ULL takes a more Northerly path so we get more'

Quote
GROLOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW, BUT A
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM, TRACK ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, THEN TURN BACK NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE MID STATE, BUT WILL KEEP US IN
THE COLD SECTOR AND ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PROBABLE FOR THE MID STATE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF NASHVILLE WHERE THE DYNAMICS WILL BE
GREATEST.

WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW NIGHT.

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR SKIES TO FINALLY CLEAR
OUT, LEAVING US WITH A COLD NORTH WIND AND A WET UND.

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:16:33 PM
As a reminder....before you post anything from the HPC, NWS, 4-H, etc. please read back and see if it has been posted already.  Doing so will help keep the topic uncluttered.  Thanks!   ;D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:27:43 PM
18z GFS rolls momentarily.......
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 27, 2009, 03:28:31 PM
is anyone going to chase this thing?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 27, 2009, 03:31:19 PM
Do we need to issue a BOLO for Nashville_wx?  He is conspicuous by his absence...

As long as I can call this guy to do it...  :-* :-* :-*

(http://voiceupnow.com/images/michael-weatherly.jpg)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:33:45 PM
Only if I can call her....

(http://www.brightandearlyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/cote.png)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 03:34:29 PM
Only if I can send her....

(http://www.brightandearlyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/cote.png)

I'm sure Nashvile_Wx would appreciate that too.  ;)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 27, 2009, 03:34:48 PM
Fair is fair...   ;D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 27, 2009, 03:34:53 PM
is anyone going to chase this thing?

Yup- from my recliner in my den while holding a remote watching college basketball.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:36:51 PM
I'm sure Nashvile_Wx would appreciate that too.  ;)

He better... >:D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:39:06 PM
18z hangs more qpf through TN at 18 hours than the 12z...temps still the same.  The low positioning is different...it looks to be showing a slower eastward progression...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 03:41:12 PM
Yes... looks like quite a rainy period tomorrow before the ULL and cold core moves in.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:42:02 PM
West TN big hit given the 18z...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 03:42:46 PM
Hmm...

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_036s.gif)

That's a slight nudge toward us too.

Jackson is sorta in the sweet spot in that particular area of QPF.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:43:21 PM
Yeah... ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Beth on February 27, 2009, 03:45:17 PM
I saw last night in another forum that Nashville_wx was headed to the mountains with his GF this week-end. Probably in search of more Snow! ;D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 03:46:11 PM
I saw last night in another forum that Nashville_wx was headed to the mountains with his GF this week-end. Probably in search of more Snow! ;D

I was wondering if he was chasing like he's talked about.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:47:14 PM
Well...southern mid TN looks to see the majority of the precip...not amounts per se, but coverage before the low pulls out.  But I swear, just a slight weeble-wobble of the low 25-50 miles could put the majority of mid TN in the sweet spot.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 03:47:44 PM
After 36 hours, the better precip continues to go through N AL & GA.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:48:33 PM
Well...on to the 0z.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 03:49:14 PM
Models at least trended a step in the right direction. Does anyone get the feeling that this is going to come down to nowcasting? I still do not see an impressive model consensus.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 03:51:23 PM
Models at least trended a step in the right direction. Does anyone get the feeling that this is going to come down to nowcasting? I still do not see an impressive model consensus.

Yes.  Tonight's 0Zs will probably be the last useful runs.

We're just going to have to watch what the ULL actually does during the day tomorrow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:51:33 PM
Models at least trended a step in the right direction. Does anyone get the feeling that this is going to come down to nowcasting? I still do not see an impressive model consensus.

Depends on what you mean by "model consensus".  Generally, they are trending towards a definitive consensus...as far as the low position and surface temps.  But if you mean finding a consensus towards the finer details like where the deformation zone will set up, then yeah, we'll have to wait until the show starts before we find that out.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Beth on February 27, 2009, 03:52:00 PM
Models at least trended a step in the right direction. Does anyone get the feeling that this is going to come down to nowcasting? I still do not see an impressive model consensus.
Thats what I have been thinking for the past 2 days!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 03:52:47 PM
And... the Carolinas win again.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 03:53:38 PM
And... the Carolinas win again.

I think the mountains will win out here...especially in NC/SC.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 03:54:14 PM
The RUC and SREF may also be useful tools beyond this point, I think.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 03:54:58 PM
I think the mountains will win out here...especially in NC/SC.

The way this is looking, it won't surprise me if someone sees 20" out of this.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 03:57:15 PM
Deform. band is what I was referring to.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 27, 2009, 03:58:23 PM
Models at least trended a step in the right direction. Does anyone get the feeling that this is going to come down to nowcasting? I still do not see an impressive model consensus.

That's what I've been saying for a while. A wait and see event.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 27, 2009, 03:59:25 PM
Quote
Special Weather Statement

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN... CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...KINGSTON SPRINGS...NASHVILLE...
LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO. ..
COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...ALLARD T...LINDEN...
LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANK LIN...BRENTWOOD...
COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBU RY...SMITHVILLE...
SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...FAIRFIELD GLADE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...
MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...TRACY CITY...ALTAMONT...COALMONT...
SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASK I
329 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE SATURDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
NORTH WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE MID STATE TONIGHT, BRINGING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH, KEEPING THE MID STATE IN THE COLD SECTOR.

IN THE MEANTIME, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT, PRODUCING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION, THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE MID STATE, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING
SOUTH OF THE NASHVILLE METROPOLITAN AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING,
MEANING THAT THE SNOW WILL STICK TO ROAD SURFACES, MAKING FOR
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS ARE THEREFORE URGED TO
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

Quote
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-281015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVI LLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE.. .CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON. ..IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...M EMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN... TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
314 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND REACH THE MID-SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID-SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MID-SOUTH...MUCH COLDER
AIR NEAR THE LOW WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANGE OVER
FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL START IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING
AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH BY EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE CHANGEOVER IN THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA WILL
OCCUR ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
SO THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED BY SATURDAY MORNING. ROAD CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR A PERIOD DEPENDING ON HOW HEAVY THE SNOW FALLS.

PERSONS IN THE MID-SOUTH SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AND BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER


Delete this if I missed it in the flurry of activity...pun intended...  :D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Yazoo63 on February 27, 2009, 04:03:36 PM
(http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu82/Yazoo63/Image1.jpg)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 04:05:55 PM
That looks like a pretty good forecast above, whoever it belong to. Maybe adjust the snow line in Al farther north but other than than it is realistic.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 04:10:51 PM
Just some food for thought.  OHX is calling for the better snow accumulations south of BNA.  On their 7 day, the forecast for CKV is 1-2 inches and the Smyrna forecast is little to no accum. as well as the forecast for Shelbyville.  Any ideas?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 27, 2009, 04:11:27 PM
18z NAM produces about 0.5 in QPF at Memphis as snow. Maybe a 3-5 inch snowfall possible in a narrow corridor? Very possible.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 27, 2009, 04:14:09 PM
(http://i43.tinypic.com/4qfz3c.jpg)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Heath22 on February 27, 2009, 04:18:34 PM
Looks like it is going to loop around Nashville.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 27, 2009, 04:21:15 PM
(http://i40.tinypic.com/264suvs.jpg)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 27, 2009, 04:24:10 PM
Looks like it is going to loop around Nashville.

I wouldn't put much stock in that map.  Accuweather....sorry, Hackuweather's performance this winter season has been atrocious.  Take it with a grain of salt.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: WXHD on February 27, 2009, 04:26:29 PM
I wouldn't put much stock in that map.  Accuweather....sorry, Hackuweather's performance this winter season has been atrocious.  Take it with a grain of salt.

Speaking of salt, Where are the trucks? They're usually throwing away our money by now!  I'm going to laugh if they're out!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 27, 2009, 04:33:32 PM
Does still still look to be an ull or is not considered a SL.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 27, 2009, 05:00:20 PM
cone of silence
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 27, 2009, 05:03:31 PM
I don't really think this is probably that accurate but WKRN's predictor dosen't have any moisture coming into the mid state area until around 5 pm tommorrow. That seems somewhat slow to me. But I have been wrong MANY MANY times
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 27, 2009, 05:08:18 PM
18z GFS BUFKIT puts KMEM at about .40 inches of QPF as snow...getting closer to the NAM. Definitely winter wx advisory criteria and if it were to be heavier maybe low end warning. Will await 0z models to see if this trend holds.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 27, 2009, 05:11:39 PM
Haven't seen in this in like....EVER...


Quote
Saturday: Rain, mainly after noon. High near 41. North northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night: Rain and snow likely before 9pm, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 27, 2009, 05:12:07 PM
Biggest concern is warm ground temps and snowfall rates. Both will play a pretty large role in accumulation.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 05:17:07 PM
Haven't seen in this in like....EVER...



I've seen it before, but it's been a LONG time.

I even remember some big snow forecasts when forecasted accumulations would span multiple periods... and you would see a "total storm accumulations of" at the end of it.  ::snowman::

It's been a long, long time since we've had that kind of system though.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: toastido on February 27, 2009, 05:18:47 PM
Biggest concern is warm ground temps and snowfall rates. Both will play a pretty large role in accumulation.

With the brisk straight north wind, and radiational cooling from melted/evaporating snow, surface temps (just below the surface.. maybe 1-2" below) should become more than low enough to handle accumulation.  Unfortunately, this will also lower the total accumulative properties of the snowfall, but at least it should make it possible to get some of the white stuff sticking around ;)

NWS HUN is actually discussing putting out a winter storm watch tonight in preparation, citing ECMWF trends.  Bring it on!
 ::snowman::

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: JJJackson on February 27, 2009, 05:19:22 PM
Radar is filling in over Nebraska, Iowa and NW Missouri. Looks like mixed precip as far south as Kansas City, although they aren't reporting anything at the surface yet.

WWA out for all of southern Missouri starting at 3 am.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: StormNine on February 27, 2009, 05:24:31 PM
  Kinda like the Dec 11th event there is that possibility of banding within the snow.  Those bands even with kinda warm ground temps can really turn white quick if heavier bands can form.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 27, 2009, 05:26:18 PM
From WKRN:

Quote
Update on rain and snow chances
By justinbruce
February 27th, 2009 - 4:13 pm

A complex weather scenario unfolds over the next 36 hours in Tennessee.

The front that brought our morning thunderstorms has shifted south and prompted tornado warnings in central Mississippi and Alabama on Friday afternoon.

The front will move north tonight, bringing rain back to Tennessee during the overnight hours. Some thunder will be possible across the southern half of the state tonight.

Off and on rain showers are expected to last from tonight through the day on Saturday. Temperatures will only be in the 30s, thanks to a cold north wind. Rain could mix with sleet or wet snow during the afternoon as colder air swings in from the north. This is most likely for areas along and north of I-40.

By late afternoon and evening, a change to snow showers is expected. The snow could accumulate, especially on grassy surfaces. Scattered snow showers are expected to linger through Saturday night. When all is said and done late Saturday night, a light accumulation looks likely (around 1″).

This is a complex situation that we will watch closely.

More details on News 2 this afternoon.


This all begs the question, "WWDND????"





*That's What Would Davis Nolan Do for the unlearned*   ::evillaugh:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Matt on February 27, 2009, 05:29:53 PM
From WKRN:

This all begs the question, "WWDND????"





*That's What Would Davis Nolan Do for the unlearned*   ::evillaugh:: ::snowman::

1 inch seems on the conservative side...is News 2 still playing it by ear?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 27, 2009, 05:32:07 PM
1 inch seems on the conservative side...is News 2 still playing it by ear?

 ::whistling::  That's what I'm saying...I think Davis' forecast would have upped the totals a bit....He must be off work.....  ::pondering::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 27, 2009, 05:40:32 PM
Some general guidelines...not hard expectations...after getting back from the office this evening...

Things are leaning toward something coming out later this evening...probably around 10:00 newscast time from MEG. I think confidence is getting pretty high that at least 1" of snow will occur in a pretty wide area of the CWA...but confidence lowers as you go more than that in amounts. The 0z models will be a big determining factor on what exactly plays out later this evening.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF all now getting progressively wetter during the day...all with .50" QPF maximums somewhere in the CWA. GFS/ECMWF are further east across West TN and far Northeast MS through Jackson area...while NAM is further west through Jonesboro AR - Memphis - Tupelo MS. I would caution at this time the widespread nature of high QPFs...normally in these ULL situations there is a narrow band of heavy precip that develops that would hit that mark...but not widespread amounts of that...and those areas would certainly cool most under the colder air aloft.

So the trick is where exactly that heavier band sets up...and how narrow or wide it is. Accumulations will be factored heavily by rate...and temperature...which will itself be affected by rate also. So I get the idea of a bullseye band running NW-SE somewhere with lessening amounts surrounding it where rates are lighter and temperatures a bit warmer. And unless the 0z models change course significantly...I think it will be in the TN River area or further west than that (West TN).

Ground temperatures are warm...and probably will be wet surfaces...so that limits accumulations some at first. Additionally...we likely won't see strict 10:1 ratios...it may be closer to 8:1...at least at first. However...once the rate/temperature is sufficient to accumulate in grassy areas...and that probably is closer to 33/34...with a layer of snow is laid...accumulations will be much more efficient on that layer as long as snow falls.

All in all...confidence in snow itself can be pretty high...but just how much and where is the big issue because of all of these numerous factors that affect rate of snowfall and accumulations...typical in these ULL scenarios. Also typical though is that somebody somewhere gets nailed...even if highly localized. That will be fun of it to try and pinpoint...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 27, 2009, 05:55:54 PM
soo..is chattanooga going to see more snow than knoxville????
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: WXHD on February 27, 2009, 06:01:58 PM
soo..is chattanooga going to see more snow than knoxville????
Yes, you're getting 4 feet of snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >:D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 27, 2009, 06:08:21 PM
Most if not all local mets are calling for highs tomorrow around 36 or 37 and dropping throughout the day. Wouldn't that lead to an earlier change over?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 27, 2009, 06:10:09 PM
Yes, you're getting 4 feet of snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >:D

I protest sir!!  I think you have it ALL WRONG!!!  It shall be Chattanooga that has all the snow...or is that RHEA Co, EAST TN...

No, wait...It's actually RUTHERFORD Co....the ONLY COUNTY IN MIDDLE MIDDLE TN...

WE SHALL GET ALL THE SNOW!!!  AND ALL THE OTHER COUNTIES WILL BOW DOWN BEFORE US!!!!

 ::snowman:: ::ski::




*there, I said it, I meant it...and if provoked, I'll go off again*
 :P
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 27, 2009, 06:16:41 PM
does ANYBODY know the link to that site where it like basically is a predictor and its the WHOLE unite statees map and you like choose the time and stuff that you wanna see? its called like storm sumthin i think.. anybody know?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mrwilkes on February 27, 2009, 06:22:51 PM
there's something like that at http://www.wunderground.com/

click either 'forecast' or 'models.'
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 27, 2009, 06:25:44 PM
does ANYBODY know the link to that site where it like basically is a predictor and its the WHOLE unite statees map and you like choose the time and stuff that you wanna see? its called like storm sumthin i think.. anybody know?

Go here. Access to RSM, WRF

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/regions12z.html
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: WXHD on February 27, 2009, 06:27:16 PM
does ANYBODY know the link to that site where it like basically is a predictor and its the WHOLE unite statees map and you like choose the time and stuff that you wanna see? its called like storm sumthin i think.. anybody know?
And there's always the disappointment of coolwx.com
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 27, 2009, 06:38:02 PM
18z also shows a little wet bulbing taking place at hour 30. Anybody else notice it? BTW I'm looking at the Eastern Us wx maps.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 27, 2009, 06:58:35 PM
Just for grins and giggles, my zone forecast was changed again.

Quote
Saturday: Rain, mainly after noon. High near 41. North northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 27, 2009, 06:58:51 PM
as of right now with the latest runs and such..how many inches for knoxville,tn?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 27, 2009, 06:59:12 PM
News 9 futuretrack looks better this afternoon than it did this AM. still shows no accumulations in a narrow strip along the river, but increasing amounts away from the city (closer to 2 inches in my neck of the woods). shows the jackpot for huntsville with 4+ and 20+ in the GSM natl park.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 27, 2009, 07:02:40 PM
as of right now with the latest runs and such..how many inches for knoxville,tn?

all of the computer output accumulation charts are hating on the lower elevations near the TN river, so only a dusting for TYS and CHA. The snow weenie in me wants to believe that a dynamically cooled event like this will allow for low elevation accumulations as long as there is sufficient precip, but the models are having none of that, favoring areas farther away from the river.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Matt on February 27, 2009, 07:03:09 PM
Just for grins and giggles, my zone forecast was changed again.


Speeding up? Or just colder air in place quicker than originally thought?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Brandon on February 27, 2009, 07:08:38 PM
Servo, I now see NWS has 1-3 for you. Is that the same as earlier?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 27, 2009, 07:15:24 PM
Servo, I now see NWS has 1-3 for you. Is that the same as earlier?

A couple of hours ago, they had the accumulation, but it was still "after midnight" with the wording.  I am surprised about the "before 9" wording....

So....I'm not sure....quicker?  Cooler?....HUGE LETDOWN...

All I know is I have  ::bacon:: in the fridge....so I'm cool. ::guitar::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 07:16:41 PM
Yes. South of a line from Howenward to Franklin to the Boro they are saying 1-3".
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 27, 2009, 07:42:53 PM
gone all quiet. guess this goes to show how weary we are of this dance with the models this winter. I'm gonna stay up to see the 00Z outputs and then I will put away the computer until sunday afternoon. hopefully then I will be taking it out again to post snow pics  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 07:53:22 PM
u mite need to pull it out tomorow nite too
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 07:55:02 PM
ne one noticed how the snow is filling in very nicely over the midwest, thats before the upper low even gets stronger in our area too.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on February 27, 2009, 07:58:32 PM
I`m thinking 1 to 3 inches of Snow
here in the Bemis - Jackson, Tn
Area by Midnight Saturday Night.

It might actually Snow this time
since we are going into March.
2008`s Biggest Snow was 5 inches here on March 7 th. ::flag::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 08:04:33 PM
i agree with u william, i live in jackson i enjoy hearing and listen to your broadcast weather
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 27, 2009, 08:10:25 PM
u mite need to pull it out tomorow nite too

those were really just words. I'd be impressed with myself if I didn't peek once tomorrow. I guess I'm kinda afraid of getting disappointed yet again.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 27, 2009, 08:11:51 PM
im gonna be gone from 1 to around 5 or 6pm tomorrow....gonna be a tough one. lol
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on February 27, 2009, 08:14:40 PM
THANK`S !
You should check out my Signature Link Blogs.
I Have 7 Google Weather Blogs.
Only 3 are listed here.
1 Main Wordpress Blog.
And of course this Blog with Tenn Weather Forum
which I enjoy writing in addition to my Other Blogs. ::flag::
I
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 27, 2009, 08:15:35 PM
0z NAM looks about like the 18z did with the heaviest axis from JBR-DYR-MEM corridor...maybe even a little more QPF? As Kev said earlier these systems usually have a pretty intense but narrow corridor. A few miles off can mean the difference between a dusting and 6 inches and anything in between.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 08:18:42 PM
hey ctb, do u think the nws will issue a low end winter storm watch for the midsouth, just curious. the latest nam looks really great for whats its worth.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 27, 2009, 08:21:08 PM
yikes   ::doh::
(http://i39.tinypic.com/317bqtd.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 27, 2009, 08:25:51 PM
hey ctb, do u think the nws will issue a low end winter storm watch for the midsouth, just curious. the latest nam looks really great for whats its worth.

Really gonna be a tough call IMO. Could really meet WSW somewhere in NE Arkansas and W TN but not sure where. Winter storm warnings are issued in most of the mis south for 3-4 inches of snow in 12 hours or 5-6 in 24 if not mistaken. So someone could end up meeting that somewhere in the area. Hard thing is where the axis of heaviest precip and coldest temps occur. If NAM is 100% correct, it could warrant the possibility of a winter storm watch for NE AR and W TN. Will wait to see if GFS backs it up. Tough call with these situations. Memphis Wx can answer better than I(esp since he works there).
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 27, 2009, 08:26:43 PM
NAM says snow cancel for anybody in middle or east tn. Puts Macon, GA in the sweet spot.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 27, 2009, 08:31:05 PM
 ::blowup::
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_SE054.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 08:34:55 PM
by looking at the latest NAM looks like another low is trying to form over norther miss, ne thughts on this.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 27, 2009, 08:43:35 PM
Hold on now. I don't think it's a snow cancel. If anything it's not much different from the 18z, at least for our area.


Here's the 18z. Not much different for our area. I wouldn't trust what it says about accums. As far as I know, the moisture is still about the same as well as the temps. I think we're still game.

(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_SE036.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 27, 2009, 08:47:47 PM
Hold on now. I don't think it's a snow cancel. If anything it's not much different from the 18z, at least for our area.
for knoxville it would be
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 08:51:51 PM
EURO will be very interesting... ::snowman::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 08:52:29 PM
for knoxville it would be

for everyone! lol
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 27, 2009, 08:54:43 PM
Really gonna be a tough call IMO. Could really meet WSW somewhere in NE Arkansas and W TN but not sure where. Winter storm warnings are issued in most of the mis south for 3-4 inches of snow in 12 hours or 5-6 in 24 if not mistaken. So someone could end up meeting that somewhere in the area. Hard thing is where the axis of heaviest precip and coldest temps occur. If NAM is 100% correct, it could warrant the possibility of a winter storm watch for NE AR and W TN. Will wait to see if GFS backs it up. Tough call with these situations. Memphis Wx can answer better than I(esp since he works there).
Will have to look at soundings but 00z NAM looks like a significant hit...certainly warning criteria...for the area. Well over half inch of QPF...even accounting for melting/lower ratios you should get 3" out of that I would think.

AVery interesting...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 27, 2009, 08:55:17 PM
EURO will be very interesting... ::snowman::
it will be in northern KY...opposite of the NAM lol
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 08:58:43 PM
looks like the latest radar images has mixed precip already entering far nw arkansas, precip really filling in as i type.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 09:01:37 PM
it will be in northern KY...opposite of the NAM lol
Wouldn't surprise me at all.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 09:15:56 PM
i hope all of tennessee gets SNOW. we are all snow deprived!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: justinmundie on February 27, 2009, 09:21:32 PM
Looking for the miracle phase that no one saw coming which dumps warning criteria snows across the whole state. Would love that. Things like that have happened before...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 27, 2009, 09:27:13 PM
Winter Storm Watch coming for the Memphis area shortly...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 09:28:59 PM
i think the EURO will still show most of the mid state and eastern tennessee getting dumped on!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Brandon on February 27, 2009, 09:30:13 PM
Good news kevin. Good News.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 27, 2009, 09:34:13 PM
Will the High for saturday be at Midnight tonight??
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 09:38:01 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_024s.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 27, 2009, 09:42:02 PM
And here we go:

Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

ARZ058-MSZ010>017-020>024-281145-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WW.Y.0005.090301T0000Z-090301T1200Z/
PHILLIPS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-
ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HELENA...CLARKSDALE...BATESVILLE...
OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...TUPELO...AMORY...ABERDEEN
933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM
CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY.

RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE
ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT SLIPPERY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE
SNOW COMES DOWN HARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

ARZ008-009-017-018-026-MOZ113-115-TNZ001-281145-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0002.090228T1500Z-090301T0900Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE
933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 INCHES OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT SLIPPERY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THE SNOW COMES DOWN HARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

ARZ027-028-035-036-TNZ002>004-019>021-048>051-281145-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0002.090228T1800Z-090301T1200Z/
POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-CROSS-CRITTENDEN-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-
GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...
WEST MEMPHIS...UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...
DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...HUNTINGDON... COVINGTON
933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY MID-DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT SLIPPERY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THE SNOW COMES DOWN HARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

ARZ048-049-MSZ001>009-TNZ052>055-088>092-281145-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0002.090228T2100Z-090301T1200Z/
ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-PRENTISS-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-
SHELBY-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORREST CITY...SOUTHAVEN...
OLIVE BRANCH...CORINTH...IUKA...TUNICA...BOONEVILL E...JACKSON...
LEXINGTON...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERV ILLE...MEMPHIS...
MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH
933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE ON
GRASSY SURFACES...BUT SLIPPERY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE
SNOW COMES DOWN HARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 09:44:21 PM
most def. looking good for west tn. about time. i just hope it all pans out the way it looks like it mite.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 27, 2009, 09:44:32 PM
GFS now is drier...LOL...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 09:46:33 PM
waits on the EURO  ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 09:46:49 PM
Nashville would be lucky to squeeze out an inch but the GFS isn't the only opinion in town.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 09:50:26 PM
GFS now is drier...LOL...

MEG jinxed it.  ;)

The main thing that seems to be consistent run to run is that parts of Georgia and the Carolinas get nailed.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 09:52:37 PM
and not us.... rinse lather repeat. Looks like NY is gonna get hammered.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 27, 2009, 09:53:00 PM
Will the High for saturday be at Midnight tonight??

Maybe. I'm at 42.5F right now. NWS has me at 39F for tomorrow. I think possible in some area that could be, but not all of TN.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 09:53:17 PM
nws must not be payng much attention to the gfs this time, umm
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 27, 2009, 09:54:32 PM
I gave up on winter entirely last week and now this?  This is very strange.. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 27, 2009, 09:56:09 PM
Nashville would be lucky to squeeze out an inch but the GFS isn't the only opinion in town.

I think it's time to nowcast just about. We are less than 24hrs from "seeing" snowfall. Stuff is already starting to come together so we'll just have to see how it pans out.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 27, 2009, 09:56:59 PM
My low for tonight is forcast to be 37 the high for tomorrow is also set at 37. But I'm already sitting at 42 now and it has been dropping consistently.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 09:58:58 PM
nws must not be payng much attention to the gfs this time, umm

MEG's updates and advisories were issued just before the 0Z GFS came out.  So, their latest forecast is based on previous runs.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 27, 2009, 09:59:41 PM
nws must not be payng much attention to the gfs this time, umm
GFS came out after the watch was issued. GFS still shows 1 to 3 inches in the Memphis area...advisory criteria...and I still think there is a heavier band that will develop somewhere to get warning criteria snow...but it may be a narrow area. The NAM is trying to pick this banding with the higher QPF...since it has better resolution than the GFS...so I would lean toward it at this point...but it probably is still overdone some. And that falls back to the reasoning for 3-5" in the watch area...a blend between the two...though the 18z GFS was a better agreement between the two than this new 00z run. The watch is just that...a watch...it can go to an advisory in the morning if the NAM backs off the QPF.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 10:05:43 PM
where do u thnk the heaviers band will set up at memphis weather? yeah it takes at least 2-4 inches of snow in a 12 - 24 period for winter storm watch criteria , is that correct?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 27, 2009, 10:06:05 PM
well its been bad news for east tenn on every model except the NGM. I'd love to see a surprise snow, but its looking less and less likely the closer we get. The euro is my last hope. If it goes south, I am booking a flight to Anchorage Alaska tomorrow morning so I can eek a little snow out of this miserable winter.

Wishcasting warning:
Maybe this thing will really spin up and give us a precip shield large enough for some snow down here. It wouldn't take much for SE TN, as areas just fifty miles away stand to get a LOT of snow from this track.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 27, 2009, 10:07:09 PM
well its been bad news for east tenn on every model except the NGM. I'd love to see a surprise snow, but its looking less and less likely the closer we get. The euro is my last hope. If it goes south, I am booking a flight to Anchorage Alaska tomorrow morning so I can eek a little snow out of this miserable winter.
count me in.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 27, 2009, 10:09:06 PM
where do u thnk the heaviers band will set up at memphis weather? yeah it takes at least 2-4 inches of snow in a 12 - 24 period for winter storm watch criteria , is that correct?
3" is the criteria...within a 12 hour period...I believe 4" in a 24 hour period...

As far as where those bands set up...that's the million dollar question...we'll have no idea until tomorrow...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 10:09:43 PM
book u a flight to memphis, its much closer and cheaper lol
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 27, 2009, 10:15:32 PM
book u a flight to memphis, its much closer and cheaper lol

Driving to Memphis would be cheapest, that is if you live in TN.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 27, 2009, 10:15:46 PM
book u a flight to memphis, its much closer and cheaper lol

not a bad idea. I can do that from CHA with no connections. seems to me like memphis is the only place for which the consensus is for snow. Everywhere else its completely up in the air. Ive seen forecasts for 20 inches of snow near columbia, and 18 near augusta, to none for columbia and 16 for charlotte, etc, etc. Ive been slowly killing myself over the last 24 hours hoping for a decent solution, but the models simply cannot deliver one yet. I think that now we should be looking and the size and strength of the precip associated with the ULL  as it moves closer. that will give us the best indicator of who will get snow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 10:17:02 PM
come on EURO, give TN a blizzard!  ::shrug:: we need you
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 10:20:32 PM
hey memphis weather, if u still on line do u think that mite even be a heavy snow warning up for tomorrow late towards nite. u know for a possible couple of hours of heavy banding snow developing.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 10:22:44 PM
(http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_036.jpg)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 10:26:26 PM
when does the EURO come out? is it midnite, i be up late tonite for that. i am off  tomorrow neways.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 27, 2009, 10:28:30 PM
For east tn..not good..

the ULL is going to be too far south then too far east to really get into any good snows. WE need a northwest trend in a hurry
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 10:28:38 PM
After midnight.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 27, 2009, 10:30:42 PM
closer to 1am eastern i think
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 27, 2009, 10:31:25 PM
hey memphis weather, if u still on line do u think that mite even be a heavy snow warning up for tomorrow late towards nite. u know for a possible couple of hours of heavy banding snow developing.
There are no more heavy snow warnings...just winter storm warnings...

But yeah...I think its very possible a warning is issued at some point as the system develops tomorrow. Could even come overnight if the Midnight shift has enough confidence...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 27, 2009, 10:33:40 PM
well to  ::sleeping:: i go! hopefully things will change tomorrow!
for all of us in tennessee  ::snowman:: we can only hope!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Beth on February 27, 2009, 10:47:28 PM
I remember in the past that when they called for a inch or less thats when we get a big snow. But when they call for 3 or more inches we hardly get a dusting. It seems like the big snows we got in 2003 were like that. Every one went to work and school as they were only calling for a dusting and then it hit us mid-morning and it was hard and heavy and made for a real mess.  So, it might just be that way for us tomorrow. At least most of us will be at home if it does. Just a thought.  ;)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 27, 2009, 10:50:45 PM
your right beth
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 27, 2009, 10:52:46 PM
Well everyone it looks like the trip to the mountains is not the place to be at this time.... Maybe I need to head West instead of East..... ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 10:56:53 PM
just head on i 40 WEST bound
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2009, 10:58:10 PM
Well everyone it looks like the trip to the mountains is not the place to be at this time.... Maybe I need to head West instead of East..... ::bangingheadintowall::

That... or head even further east into the Carolinas when the ULL finally swings through there...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 27, 2009, 11:00:29 PM
the nws just revised their forecast for here in jackson. to 80 percent sleet/snow tomorrow and 100 percent snow tomorrow nite with 2 - 4 inches.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 27, 2009, 11:01:34 PM
Or I can sleep the entire weekend away.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on February 27, 2009, 11:02:41 PM
WOW !  The National Weather Service in Memphis, Tn.
has issued a { WINTER STORM WATCH }
for ALL of WEST TENN for Saturday Afternoon thru
Sunday Morning.
The National Weather Service is saying that part`s of West Tenn
may get up to 5 inches of SNOW.
Maybe Jackson will get a GOOD part of this. ::flag::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 11:24:55 PM
According to Jonesboro, AR forecast MEG has a forecast of 2-4" tomorrow and 1-3 tomorrow night. Looks like they will get their storm.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 27, 2009, 11:48:36 PM
 Folks, the way I see it, there is potential for one of the worst winter weather forecast surprises (or bust for some) we have seen in a while. Some other models are all over the place just 24 hours out and don't get me started on GFS ensembling.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 12:00:42 AM
This is probably a repost but the Canadian is very impressive for West AND Middle TN. Folks, the way I see it, there is potential for one of the worst winter weather forecast surprises (or bust for some) we have seen in a while. Some other models are all over the place just 24 hours out and don't get me started on GFS ensembling.
Ensemble Models...the GFS Ensemble and SREF both...are not going to do well in an ULL situation due to the small scale resolution its effects are felt at. Ensemble models are run at even broader resolutions than the main models (GFS, GGEM, ECMWF, NAM, etc)...so they are even less reliable in this type of setup.

And also...the Canadian Map you posted if from last night's 00z run...not tonight's...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 12:05:08 AM
Ensemble Models...the GFS Ensemble and SREF both...are not going to do well in an ULL situation due to the small scale resolution its effects are felt at. Ensemble models are run at even broader resolutions than the main models (GFS, GGEM, ECMWF, NAM, etc)...so they are even less reliable in this type of setup.

And also...the Canadian Map you posted if from last night's 00z run...not tonight's...

Nice catch. It is late you know. ;)

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 28, 2009, 12:08:22 AM
is there any hope at all for us ETN folks
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: JJJackson on February 28, 2009, 12:19:23 AM
Someone is about to get buried. Y'all see that upper air low strength? I would not be surprised to see widespread reports of 6" with isolated reports of 12"+.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 12:23:09 AM
Someone is about to get buried. Y'all see that upper air low strength? I would not be surprised to see widespread reports of 6" with isolated reports of 12"+.
I believe your right. . . The question is who gets buried and I have no idea about that
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 12:32:03 AM
We'll find out soon enough.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 12:54:07 AM
I would feel better east or west of here. That is sad...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: footballer93 on February 28, 2009, 12:55:58 AM
when will they put the advisory for middle tennessee
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 01:01:08 AM
when will they put the advisory for middle tennessee

I am sure a Snow Advisory will go up once light snow is eminent. Tomorrow morning we will know what we are in for.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: JJJackson on February 28, 2009, 05:12:55 AM
All of MEG has been upgraded to WSW. Per AFD, mainly due to sleet expected to accompany the storm. Heaviest snow should bisect the forecast area with Memphis metro in the middle.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 05:13:20 AM
i see a nice swath of snow has developed over mo. this morning but it looks like it keeps going more east due. also spinning some now showing the dynamics of the upper low. stupid question here but is the low still expected to move more towards the se direction, guess when that happens the snow will break more to the southeast.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 05:35:14 AM
time to rise n shine folks, we have a major winter system heading towards parts of tennessee. lets get chating!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 28, 2009, 05:36:56 AM
NWS took SNOW out of the forecast for me and has RAIN!
Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
332 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009


CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
332 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 /232 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 06:20:55 AM
local me wreg todd demeers hope spelled his name right, just said snow could be heavy in some of the ands towards dark. said some isolated area could get 6 inches, with 4 inches more widespread.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on February 28, 2009, 06:36:12 AM
local me wreg todd demeers hope spelled his name right, just said snow could be heavy in some of the ands towards dark. said some isolated area could get 6 inches, with 4 inches more widespread.

Your location??

Looks interesting....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 06:38:54 AM
hey chelsea, i am in jackson tn, about 75 miles east ne of memphis where we had very litle snow this winter. i hope this ones pans out.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: JJJackson on February 28, 2009, 06:42:55 AM
Precip is starting to break out in west Arkansas. Freezing line is approximately 140 miles NW of Memphis at the moment. Looks to me the ULL is centered in SE Kansas at the moment -- maybe slightly west of where it was forecast to be. MEG looks to be in a great position to pick up significant snow this afternoon/evening.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 06:45:57 AM
hey jjj whats up my man, been waiting for your coments. u think jackson still looks good too? i wuz wondering were the ul was at now. i see some spinning in mo now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 28, 2009, 06:46:43 AM
So,, can ANYBODY  pleasee explain whats up with east tn?? Here http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Knoxville&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=35.9746&textField2=-83.9463  

they have NO forecast for snow for knoxville. Last night they did, last night our low was 32, and now they have put it as 35. People, why is there going to be snow all around EAST Tn, but just rain here??!?!? somebody, will this forecast change??
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 06:48:54 AM
i think the ull is going to far west of you, diving down from the midwest. then going way under u and cuttting up through the carolinas.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: JJJackson on February 28, 2009, 06:49:15 AM
Jackson still looks good to me. As long as the ULL passes to the south of us, all of west TN is getting in the action today.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 06:51:20 AM
great thats my thinking too, tell u thins thing could get stronger too. got good dynamcis with it, u think could be some islolated higher amounts like 6inches or so?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: JJJackson on February 28, 2009, 07:05:57 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if this rivals last March in some locales. It's not going to be as widespread as that event, but I think the dynamics are good for somebody to pick up 6"+. There is some great banding setting up just to the east and south of Kansas City this morning. Spinning this way...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 07:14:50 AM
I would feel better east or west of here. That is sad...

I feel for ya...don't take mine...but I feel for ya (is this weather or politics?) ::unclesam::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: JJJackson on February 28, 2009, 07:19:56 AM
Just now getting around to reading the AFDs this morning ... general thinking appears to be there may be more sleet mixed in along the I-40 corridor, which would reduce snowfall totals to around 4". Will be interesting to see how much sleet mixes in ... if not a lot, we could be looking at a more widespread heavy snow event. From MEG:

Quote
...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NW TN WILL SEE RAIN MIXED WITH
SLEET EARLY THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO OR MIXING WITH SNOW BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW RATHER QUICKLY HOWEVER SOME
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST OF FOUR INCH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE ONSET OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
MID DAY OR SLIGHTLY AFTER. THIS ZONE IS ROUGHLY NORTH OF A HELENA
TO JACKSON TO LEXINGTON LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS METRO
AREA. SLEET COULD FALL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...MIXED WITH RAIN
FROM ABOUT NOON UNTIL 3 PM OR SO BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MEMPHIS METRO AND JACKSON TN AREAS.

AFTER 6 PM...THE REMAINDER OF N MS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN
MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY EVENING.
SNOW SHOULD CLEAR THE NE MS AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE A 50 MILE SWATH
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET. THUS A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

AC

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 07:43:54 AM
OHX AFD:

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
402 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

.SHORT TERM (TDAY-MON)...
KOHX-88D RADAR SHOWS SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVG NE. COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRES SINKS SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRES HEADING
NE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS. AS A RESULT EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY.

AIR IS COLD ENOUGH FOR TRANSIIION TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON IN NW MID
TN...INCLUDING METRO NASHVILLE LATE. COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN
EXTREME NW MID TN BY 00Z. SNOW ACCUMS MORE OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT.

AS FOR TONIGHT...MODELS TRACK UPPER CLOSED LOW SE FM AR INTO C MS
THIS EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LIKELY IN WEST TN. SNOW WL
EXTEND EAST INTO MID TN WITH POSITION OF H7 CLOSED LOW. HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO POST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF MID TN.
SNOWFALL UP TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...LIGHTER
AMTS EAST. SNOW SHOULD END EARLY WITH COLD CONDITIONS SUN-MON.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NO MAJOR CHANGE TO EXTENDED. DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLOW TEMP
MODERATION. MUCH WARMER IN THE FAR EXTENDED...WITH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THU.

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 08:03:14 AM
Quote
Winter Weather Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
533 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO BRING SNOWFALL TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TONIGHT...

.AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER WEST TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING. COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT.

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>060-062-064-093-281945-
/O.CON.KOHX.WW.Y.0007.090301T0000Z-090301T1200Z/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-RUTHERFORD-DEKALB-WAYNE-
533 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY...

ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE
IN WEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. SLIPPERY ROADS
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW TO THE FREEZING
MARK TONIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIOD OF SNOW OR ICE WILL
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.


Ah well..they still have to issue it, right?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 08:04:36 AM
Quote
Winter Storm Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
359 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...MAJOR LATE WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH...

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD
OF SLEET AND SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

ARZ048-049-MSZ001-007-TNZ052-054-088>090-281800-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0002.090228T2100Z-090301T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.W.0001.090228T1800Z-090301T1200Z/
ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-DESOTO-TUNICA-MADISON-HENDERSON-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORREST CITY...SOUTHAVEN...
OLIVE BRANCH...TUNICA...JACKSON...LEXINGTON...BART LETT...
GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLIN GTON...SOMERVILLE...
BOLIVAR
359 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THEN
TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 08:24:00 AM
After perusing all the info this morning, the better half and myself talked about a possible snow chase to Jackson this evening.  Then we remembered that we had made dinner plans with our friends.  The menu includes meatloaf, roasted red potatoes, and strawberry shortcake....so we decided to put the chase on hold.  Could you blame us?   ::yum::

But, I have been playng with the idea of setting up a camera and streaming from the house tonight.  I'll decide whether or not I'm going to by late afternoon.  If I do decide to, I'll post the link for everyone.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 08:24:09 AM
12Z NAM still looking pretty good for West TN:

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_018s.gif)

But, it's time to watch the radars, etc. of this thing move into the region.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 08:26:39 AM
Central AL and GA do very well on this run too...

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_030s.gif)

That looks like a big hit for Birmingham.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 08:29:51 AM
After perusing all the info this morning, the better half and myself talked about a possible snow chase to Jackson this evening.  Then we remembered that we had made dinner plans with our friends.  The menu includes meatloaf, roasted red potatoes, and strawberry shortcake....so we decided to put the chase on hold.  Could you blame us?   ::yum::

But, I have been playng with the idea of setting up a camera and streaming from the house tonight.  I'll decide whether or not I'm going to by late afternoon.  If I do decide to, I'll post the link for everyone.

DON'T BLAME YOU A BIT!!!!! That meal sounds great!!!!  Who knows, maybe things will shift back.   ::shrug::  But, short term, I think the forecasting has been pretty spot on this year actually.  We'll see how the "energy" decides to flow..

NWS has me down to less than a 1/4" now or 1/2" or something.....It will either snow or it won't.... ::snowman:: ::bacon::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 08:34:22 AM
DON'T BLAME YOU A BIT!!!!! That meal sounds great!!!!  Who knows, maybe things will shift back.   ::shrug::  But, short term, I think the forecasting has been pretty spot on this year actually.  We'll see how the "energy" decides to flow..

NWS has me down to less than a 1/4" now or 1/2" or something.....It will either snow or it won't.... ::snowman:: ::bacon::

Wow...they still have me at 1-3".  I guess we won't know who sees what until the white stuff starts a'flyin'.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 08:38:52 AM
Wow...they still have me at 1-3".  I guess we won't know who sees what until the white stuff starts a'flyin'.

 ;D

I clicked on The 'Boro Proper.... 1-2"....clicked again where I'm at (few miles from town), less than half an inch....They must be drawing the line at 24 or something.  Isn't the first time it's happened.  And the POPS are the SAME!!  I have seen it change from one side of 231 to the other as well.   ::guitar::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 08:39:28 AM
Latest HPC coloring book page....FWIW...

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 08:40:30 AM
;D

I clicked on The 'Boro Proper.... 1-2"....clicked again where I'm at (few miles from town), less than half an inch....They must be drawing the line at 24 or something.  Isn't the first time it's happened.  And the POPS are the SAME!!  I have seen it change from one side of 231 to the other as well.   ::guitar::

I feel a snow dance is in order...or maybe a snow sacrifice... >:D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Scot on February 28, 2009, 08:41:14 AM
Man we always miss out.....this is getting to be quite sad!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 08:46:53 AM
hey chelsea, i am in jackson tn, about 75 miles east ne of memphis where we had very litle snow this winter. i hope this ones pans out.

It would sure be nice if you'd put that location (it is real easy) in your settings so that people wouldn't have to ask! :)  Let me know if you need help with that!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 08:48:52 AM
My final call for Nashville....

:::FIZZARD WARNING:::   :::FLIZZARD WARNING:::

accums of 0-.5"
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 08:52:53 AM
Well I'm sitting over here on the good ol Tennessee river hoping for a repeat of last march when we go dumped on with about a foot.  But since then Perry Co has seen no snow and by this time tomorrow I may be wishing I had stayed in Jackson. But surely a little of the white stuff shall fly this way
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 08:55:13 AM
yes cookeville, please help me  where i could put my local at, thanx
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 09:01:42 AM
yes cookeville, please help me  where i could put my local at, thanx

Click either your name on the post or on the Profile button at the top of the page.

That will take you to your Profile view.  At that point, look over on the left side of your screen under "Modify Profile."

Click "Forum Profile Information."

There's a "Location" field there (along with other information).  Just enter it there and then click "Change Profile" at the bottom of that page.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 09:07:27 AM
Click either your name on the post or on the Profile button at the top of the page.

That will take you to your Profile view.  At that point, look over on the left side of your screen under "Modify Profile."

Click "Forum Profile Information."

There's a "Location" field there (along with other information).  Just enter it there and then click "Change Profile" at the bottom of that page.

Thanks for being so quick on the reply Thunder!  That should help TennesseeStorm09 (and others who leave us wondering their location) get all fixed up!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 09:10:14 AM
Alright guys I've been sitting here pondering the issue and I need opinions. I am in Perry Co for the weekend (southwest middle) I have a place in Jackson as well which is only a little over an hour away, but in these situations we all know could mean little snow or a heavey snow. Will there be that much of a difference in the two locations potential accumulations (in your opinion) to go ahead and head back west??
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Yazoo63 on February 28, 2009, 09:11:42 AM
Well .... let's see here ... so far this winter, there have been good snowfalls to the North of me, to the East of me, to the South of me, and now it will be to the West of me.

It figures.  ::doh::

I guess the snow drought will continue ... for my location, anyways (White County).  Oh well, there's always next winter. ::coffee::

Gee, i don't know if my roof will be able to handle that whopping half inch of snow they're forecasting for here.   ::rofl::

Why is Mother Nature so cruel  ???
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 09:12:12 AM
thanx for helping me cookeville, thunder snow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 09:13:58 AM
i am proably going to jinxe this snow storm. because i have broken out my sled and polishing it now!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 09:16:43 AM
i have clicked on svereal locales on the nws site. and few places in mo. reporting visibilities less than .25 pretty impressive.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 09:17:41 AM
i am proably going to jinxe this snow storm. because i have broken out my sled and polishing it now!

Gee, I've already shed tears of joy thinking of all the kids playing in it.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 09:24:43 AM
This is pathetic. second year in a row looks like west tn takes the cake while middle and east get hung out to dry. 13 year streak still alive and kicking at KCHA, its waiting patiently for its 13th birthday.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 09:30:59 AM
yeah but still overall, east and middle have usally goten there share of big snows. just not lately. but overall more snow falls in east and middle tn. let west tn win a couple of years at least. lol. no seriously i hope all of tn get a good snow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: StormNine on February 28, 2009, 09:47:53 AM
Alright guys I've been sitting here pondering the issue and I need opinions. I am in Perry Co for the weekend (southwest middle) I have a place in Jackson as well which is only a little over an hour away, but in these situations we all know could mean little snow or a heavey snow. Will there be that much of a difference in the two locations potential accumulations (in your opinion) to go ahead and head back west??

It could be a huge difference depending on how the banding sets up.  Right now both areas should get some snow hopefully at least.  If a heavier band sets up like Jackson like it could they could have a lot more than Perry County.

For example not saying exactly on the accumulations but to show how banding may go Jackson may have 5 inches while east Perry County has a inch and West Perry County has 2 inches something like that is reasonable. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 09:53:22 AM
Jackson is good but I have family in Jonesboro. I WANT TO BE THERE SO BAD!  ::)  ;)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 10:03:17 AM
12Z GFS is in fairly close agreement with the 12Z NAM... best chance of snow in TN is in West TN.  It appears we've reached our final model solution.

Now, it's time to watch it actually unfold to see how well the models have handled it.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 10:05:49 AM
It could be a huge difference depending on how the banding sets up.  Right now both areas should get some snow hopefully at least.  If a heavier band sets up like Jackson like it could they could have a lot more than Perry County.

For example not saying exactly on the accumulations but to show how banding may go Jackson may have 5 inches while east Perry County has a inch and West Perry County has 2 inches something like that is reasonable. 
Thanks StormNine. Your absolutely right and it all depends on where these bands develope. If one were to develope east of Jackson It could be the Tn river area that gets drilled while on the other hand if they develope west of there Jackson will get hammered. But I think heading west will be my best bet.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 10:07:15 AM
go west young man, go west!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 10:10:20 AM
intersting to note, several locations in mo reporting 3- 5 inches already with mod to heavy snow still falling. they were most calling for 1- 3 inches soomething to take note. thats were this sytem is coming from too.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Beth on February 28, 2009, 10:11:00 AM
Oh, how exciting, the WC said we might get a slushy half inch here in middle tn! :-\
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 10:13:15 AM
intersting to note, several locations in mo reporting 3- 5 inches already with mod to heavy snow still falling. they were most calling for 1- 3 inches soomething to take note. thats were this sytem is coming from too.

Yes, it must have been a blitz to drop that much snow that quickly.  Here she comes:

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 10:18:07 AM
i wouldnt doubt if northern alabama goes under a winter storm watch. soon for later tonite. i think the winter weather advisory in parts of mid tn. get upgraded to a winter storm warning later.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 10:22:46 AM
Yes, it must have been a blitz to drop that much snow that quickly.  Here she comes:
Yes it had to of been. As someone on here said earlier I believe it was Tennessee Storm09 said that visibility in much of Mozzu was WAY down.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 10:26:35 AM
WKRN:

Quote
Saturday forecast update (fingers crossed edition)
By justinbruce
February 28th, 2009 - 9:04 am

Dare I say..the forecast looks on track for some snow showers later this evening and tonight. The computer models and our thinking have not changed since Friday.

Cold rain showers around this Saturday morning. Nashville International Airport reported light snow at 7:00 AM (?) but its just a bunch of rain as I look outside the door at News 2. Off and on rain expected this morning and afternoon with temperatures in the middle and upper 30s. Yuck.

Northwest of Nashville (Clarksville, Paris, Hopkinsville, etc.) temperatures are in the lower 30s, so beware of some slippery spots through the day.

The changeover to a wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow will occur this afternoon, first for areas northwest of Nashville and elsewhere during the late afternoon and early evening. The changeover will hold off until well after dark for areas east of I-65 and down south toward Alabama.

Snow showers will begin to accumulate later this evening in Nashville and should last through tonight. The Predictor model run posted below is bullish on the snow chances overnight and keeps white weather around through early Sunday morning.

With temperatures below freezing and snow around this evening and tonight, travel is discouraged. The roads will be slippery through Sunday morning. News 2 plans to run church closings through Sunday morning, so watch for that.

My thoughts on snow totals havent changed a lot. I think that 1″ is a good target for most areas by the time the snow wraps up. I know that the National Weather Service is calling for 1″ to 2″ of snow, but I dont think Ill hear too many complaints if we get a little extra snow (it is the weekend, after all). The forecast in West Tennessee, where snow will move in this afternoon, mentions 3″+ of accumulation.

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 10:27:09 AM
Morning everybody. I can see that this is looking good so far. Currently 37.4F, north wind at 10mph, and a light mist.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 10:33:16 AM
the TWC just reported that there could even be some thunder snow in parts of tn. and alabama later this evening
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Yazoo63 on February 28, 2009, 10:43:04 AM
Quote
Oh, how exciting, the WC said we might get a slushy half inch here in middle tn!

That could change.  The last three runs of the GFS have progressively been putting more moisture in middle TN  (especially the latest 12z run).  Maybe by the 18z run, things may start to look up for us here in middle TN.

Here are snapshots from the previous 3 runs of the GFS  (00z last night, and 06z and 12z this morning).  The latest run, especially, is looking more promising for us.   ::fingerscrossed::

(http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu82/Yazoo63/Image6.jpg)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 10:47:32 AM
like i said, i think mid tn will be upgraded to a winter storm warning.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 10:49:28 AM
I don't see what everyone is worried about.  If it doesn't snow in nashville it doesn't snow.  Do you expect any different?  Same ole story for the past 6 years. Someday, whether its 30 years from now, it will snow in davidson county.  It doesn't really matter to me though, whether its snows 1 inch of 5 inches it will be gone by noon tomorrow.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 10:52:04 AM
Well the 12Z puts me back in the game for a small accumulation (less than 3 inches). Unfortunately this means I can't give up on it yet. If I can get that precip shield to expand just a little bit as this thing explodes over N. Ga, I could get a surprise down here. Its gonna be close between  ::bacon:: and heartbreak
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 10:55:34 AM
It seems like they would at least go ahead and issue a winter storm warning for southern mid tn.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 10:56:47 AM
For 2" of snow???
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 10:58:56 AM
looks to be more than 2 inches for most of southern mid tn.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 10:59:33 AM
That could change.  The last three runs of the GFS have progressively been putting more moisture in middle TN  (especially the latest 12z run).  Maybe by the 18z run, things may start to look up for us here in middle TN.

Here are snapshots from the previous 3 runs of the GFS  (00z last night, and 06z and 12z this morning).  The latest run, especially, is looking more promising for us.   ::fingerscrossed::



Very nice comparisons illustrating your point Yazoo, an extra rasher of  ::bacon:: for you!!!   ::applause::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 10:59:48 AM
I don't see what everyone is worried about.  If it doesn't snow in nashville it doesn't snow.  Do you expect any different?  Same ole story for the past 6 years. Someday, whether its 30 years from now, it will snow in davidson county.  It doesn't really matter to me though, whether its snows 1 inch of 5 inches it will be gone by noon tomorrow.  

I think that those of us on here stressing over this thing (like myself) in some sick way enjoy this rollercoaster ride of joy and disappointment as we follow every model run. Good thing I'm not a MET, I would have pulled my hair out over this one by now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 11:03:58 AM
Yea, and I really feel sorry for those of you in Chatt.  Its like it doesn't even snow there anymore.  The last year I lived in Knoxville in 03 we had several good snows.  Chatt didn't get a snow that year either.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 11:05:53 AM
just noted that the wiinter w. advisory has been upgraded for most of cen mo. to a winter storm warning. 4- 7 inches now forecasted. that snow band is really intensifing as it heads to the south east
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Beth on February 28, 2009, 11:06:15 AM
the TWC just reported that there could even be some thunder snow in parts of tn. and alabama later this evening
Wouldn't it be awesome if they sent Jim Canatori from the WC and he could hear the thundersnow again. I will never forget that time many years ago when he freaked out because he heard thunder in a snowstorm ,,too funny! :D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 11:07:37 AM
For 2" of snow???
When it comes through southern mid tn and north al I really think they will pick up more than 2''. thats my opinion anyway
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 11:10:33 AM
At this point a WSW for middle tennessee seems unlikely, but I am down for one. Just have to wait and see. 2-3" would be great...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:11:49 AM
I'll be interested to see how this thing moves on the radar loops.  There's precip around the spin fairly far up in Missouri.

It seems like it's going to have to take a fairly hard right turn to the southeast to avoid Middle TN (which I'm sure it will manage to do  ;) ).  But, there also seems to be new precip breaking out ahead of the main band from northeastern AR through the boothill of MO and northeast from there.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 11:15:07 AM
12Z snow output says up to 2 inches for SE TN, only 4 for ATL. I think that this is way underdone. GFS probably isn't seeing dynamic cooling that will occur just NW of the Low. I bet east side of ATL sees 6+ out of this if this track verifies.
I have also just noticed that the accum. snow map has WAYYY underdone accumulations that are occuring in MO right now. They have just been upgraded to a WSW for heavy snow. That makes me slightly more optimistic
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 28, 2009, 11:16:36 AM
People, what about KNOXVILLE,TN? how many inches here?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 11:17:58 AM
People, what about KNOXVILLE,TN? how many inches here?

GFS says less than 1 inch. K-town might be a bit too far north to get much more than that.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 11:19:24 AM
I agree. Knoxville will miss the worst of this one most likely. You all already got your 2" anyway.  ::shaking_finger::  ::lookaround::  :D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:19:31 AM
Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1011 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 AM     SNOW             3 NW COLE CAMP          38.49N  93.24W
02/28/2009  M6.5 INCH        BENTON             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            1/4 MILE VISIBILITY STILL SNOWING

6.5 inches measured on the ground in Cole Camp in west central MO.  That's a little west of Jefferson City... which is fairly far north... about as far north of St. Louis.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 11:20:47 AM
Wouldn't it be awesome if they sent Jim Canatori from the WC and he could hear the thundersnow again. I will never forget that time many years ago when he freaked out because he heard thunder in a snowstorm ,,too funny! :D

I remember that!! 

Too funny.....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 11:21:08 AM
Here's an OHX graphic from this morning:

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/graphic/now/outlooksmall.png)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:21:34 AM
People, what about KNOXVILLE,TN? how many inches here?

I'm sorry... but, you're on the outside looking in at this point... just too far from where the ULL is going to track.  Checking the forecast on Wunderground.com, snow isn't even mentioned in the forecast... just rain and drizzle.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 11:22:08 AM
Yea, and I really feel sorry for those of you in Chatt.  Its like it doesn't even snow there anymore.  The last year I lived in Knoxville in 03 we had several good snows.  Chatt didn't get a snow that year either.
I've said it several times on here, its been 13 years since we've had a major snowfall. Thats the longest period of time in the 120ish years of observation assuming the records are accurate. It's certainly the longest anyone in TN has gone. (sadly, corpus christi,tx has seen more snow than me in the last 10 years).
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:23:57 AM
Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 AM     SNOW             PLATTSBURG              39.56N 94.46W
02/28/2009  M6.0 INCH        CLINTON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DRIFTS ARE UP TO A FOOT AND A HALF.

 ::wow::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 28, 2009, 11:24:44 AM
Wouldn't it be awesome if they sent Jim Canatori from the WC and he could hear the thundersnow again. I will never forget that time many years ago when he freaked out because he heard thunder in a snowstorm ,,too funny! :D

I remember that one.he was up in boston,ma in 1995 or 1996.We had better winters then.The pattern was much more conducive to see snows.We need a elnino to take shape somehow i think ::shrug::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: lyngo on February 28, 2009, 11:26:03 AM
What's the best site to get water vapor imagery from?  I had some bookmarked but they must've been deleted....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 11:26:18 AM
Those are incredible LSR's TS!!!  ::wow:: :o
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 11:28:30 AM
What's the best site to get water vapor imagery from?  I had some bookmarked but they must've been deleted....


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/satellite.php

That's the one that is centered over BNA but does show a wider view...You can pick Water Vapor from the choices
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:29:08 AM
Quote
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1022 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019>021-
048>052-054-055-281830-
CARROLL-CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-
DYER-GIBSON-GREENE-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
MADISON-MISSISSIPPI-OBION-PEMISCOT-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS-
TIPTON-WEAKLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLYTHEVILLE...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...
JACKSON...JONESBORO...KENNETT...WEST MEMPHIS
1022 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

.NOW...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE
THROUGH 1230 PM. SOME RAIN IS BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SLEET IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 11:31:03 AM
Current OBS:

Quote
Location Weather Temp.
(F) Dewpt.
(F) Hum.
(%) Wind
(mph) Pres.
(in) Remarks
NASHVILLE  LGT RAIN  39 36 89% N14  29.97F FOG WCI 31 
PORTLAND  CLOUDY  36 34 92% NE12  29.98F WCI 28 
CLARKSVILLE  CLOUDY  37 34 89% NE14  30.03F WCI 28 
SMYRNA  LGT RAIN  39 37 93% N9  29.98S FOG WCI 33 
LIVINGSTON  CLOUDY  36 36 100% NE15  29.93F WCI 27 
GALLATIN  CLOUDY  39 36 89% NE17  29.97F WCI 30 
CROSSVILLE  RAIN  40 38 93% NE6  29.90S FOG 
TULLAHOMA  CLOUDY  42 41 97% N13  29.90   
MURFREESBORO  CLOUDY  40 38 93% N15  29.94  WCI 32 
MCMINNVILLE  CLOUDY  38 38 100% N13  29.90  WCI 30 
TRI CITIES  LGT RAIN  48 46 93% NE8  29.90F FOG 
KNOXVILLE  DRIZZLE  50 48 93% NE9  29.84F FOG 
OAK RIDGE  LGT RAIN  48 46 93% NE7  29.87F 
CHATTANOOGA  LGT RAIN  51 49 92% N10  29.84S FOG 
MEMPHIS-INTL  CLOUDY  36 32 85% N14G21  30.07S WCI 27 
JACKSON  CLOUDY  38 34 85% N15  30.04S WCI 29 
DYERSBURG  CLOUDY  36 28 75% N10G17  30.10R WCI 28 
UNION CITY  CLOUDY  35 33 92% N12  30.06  WCI 27 
PARIS  CLOUDY  34 31 89% NE13  30.05R WCI 25 
HUNTINGDON  CLOUDY  35 32 89% NE10  30.04S WCI 27 
LEXINGTON  CLOUDY  37 34 89% N13  29.97F WCI 29 
SELMER  CLOUDY  37 35 92% VRB7  29.98  WCI 31 
SAVANNAH  CLOUDY  36 33 88% N14  29.98F WCI 27 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:37:45 AM
6-7" snow accumulations appear to be very common in portions of western MO.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bigalpha on February 28, 2009, 11:41:04 AM
6-7" snow accumulations appear to be very common in portions of western MO.

What's the likelihood that mid TN will see anything that extreme?  From all the chatting, it seems Clarksville will kind of be on the fringe of snow too.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:41:12 AM
Reports of ~3" starting to come in between Springfield and St. Louis, and it's still coming down in those areas.  2" reported in only the last hour in Waynesville, MO.  2"/hour is pretty heavy snow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:42:42 AM
What's the likelihood that mid TN will see anything that extreme? 

Not likely.  We'll probably see something close to what is forecast.

I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility though.

There's a saying in this business...

"Upper Level Low is the weatherman's woe."

Something interesting like that would be more likely in West TN though.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Yazoo63 on February 28, 2009, 11:45:21 AM
I'm really baffled as to how the NWS comes up with their winter weather statements and forecasts ...

At 5:33 AM, they issued a statement (including White County) for snow possibly up to 2 inches.

The current forecast for White County, however, only calls for a half inch.

Yet, the latest 12z model run shows MORE moisture coming into White County than the previous run.

Who knows  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:55:51 AM
Take this for what it's worth... the 12Z WRF projected radar simulation of this system...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/index_ref_l_loop.shtml (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/index_ref_l_loop.shtml)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 12:02:15 PM
Quote
...AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT FROM 200 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 300 AM CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED AN AIRPORT WEATHER
WARNING FOR THE MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FROM 200 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 300 AM CST SUNDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
200 PM BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY BY THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 200 PM AND 400
PM...BUT ANY SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT 32 OR 33 DEGREES AS THE SNOW
DEVELOPS...THEN FALL TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 12:04:11 PM
SQUIGGLY LINE ALERT

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0175.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...WRN TN/KY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 281747Z - 282145Z
   
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS S CNTRL
   MO OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A RECENT REPORT OF 2 INCHES AN
   HOUR AT FT WOOD. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ESEWD TOWARD SERN
   MO...NERN AR...AND WRN TN/KY. RATES OF NEAR 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR
   CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL IN ADDITION TO RESTRICTED
   VISIBILITIES.
   
   A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN KS...WILL QUICKLY
   DIVE SEWD REACHING CNTRL AR BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG ARCTIC
   HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES...AND
   SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OUTLINE AREA WHILE
   AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL QUICKLY COOL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. A NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND OF MDT/HVY
   SNOW IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING INTO SERN MO...WRN KY/TN...AND NERN AR ALONG
   AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG UPPER
   DIVERGENCE/FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS. SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
   CONTRIBUTING AS WELL...WITH RELATIVE WARM/MOIST AIR TO THE EAST
   BEING DRAWN ATOP THE ARCTIC AIRMASS/SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE
   WEST. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN RECENT PADUCAH VAD WIND PROFILES.
   12Z SPRINGFIELD SOUNDING SHOWS SATURATED COLUMN GENERALLY FROM THE
   SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE THAT
   AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM WILL REMAIN SATURATED AS
   WELL...PROMOTING MDT/HVY SNOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO GENERALLY SHIFT
   ESEWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 12:05:05 PM
Uh... folks... MEG is upping the forecast accumulations...

Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...MAJOR LATE WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH...

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
SLEET AND SNOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019-020-010145-
/O.CON.KMEG.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090301T0900Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...KENNETT...CARUTHE RSVILLE...
UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG. ..HUMBOLDT...
MILAN
1132 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY.

RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET THEN OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Upper West TN is now forecast to receive 3-6 inches, even as far east as the Paris area.  ::wow::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 12:07:08 PM
I have decided that 3" is the golden mark for BNA. If I can measure 3" outside my winter will rest in peace. Looks like I am just going to sit my butt here in Nashville. I will prob head West later this evening if we look to get totally shafted. Otherwise looks for light snow to move into our area later in the day.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 12:08:30 PM
WRF 30 hour precip forecast...

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p12_030l.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 12:10:13 PM
This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm to hit Central AL since Superstorm '93, according to WRF.  The NWS down there hasn't bitten on that scenario yet though.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 12:13:50 PM
If only we weren't having meatloaf.................. ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall::


BTW, after a quick cursory glance, OHX has changed my forecast...again.  Now we're BACK to 1-3".  I fully expect them to upgrade to a WSW and up the totals to 2-4" with locally higher amounts sometime this afternoon.  Only my opinion and my  ::twocents:: .
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 12:15:09 PM
If only we weren't having meatloaf.................. ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall::

MOM can I get some MEATLOAF!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 12:16:10 PM
WRF = fail for me. seems to dry out as precip moves off the plateau (what else is new?)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 12:16:44 PM
light rain here and 36
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 12:18:29 PM
that map shows a pretty good swab of moisture over me in Perry co but the temp has gotta do some dropping or I'm gonna get rained on
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 12:20:41 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_p01_009m.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 12:24:17 PM
Snow now reported in Jonesboro, AR.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 28, 2009, 12:24:25 PM
gahh, its been raining ALL DAY here in Knoxville,TN. The temp. is 48 degrees out. I sure hope it drops. The visibility is down to 6.0 miles..
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: StormNine on February 28, 2009, 12:24:50 PM
Once it gets going dynamic cooling should bring the temperatures down to around freezing for snowfall.  

Main concerns are dryslotting and where the heaviest bands set up.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Yazoo63 on February 28, 2009, 12:26:32 PM
(http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu82/Yazoo63/Image1.jpg)

Man, if that moisture in northern AL would just shift up a LITTLE bit into middle TN, we'd be good to go.

Would that be TOO much to ask ???  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 12:28:34 PM
Snow now reported in Jonesboro, AR.
Talked to my grandfather an hour ago on the northside of Jonesboro close to Ark State. He said it was about 33/34  and cloudy.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 12:36:44 PM
 ::snowman:: ::ski:: ::snow::

Looks like WEST TENNESSEE is the place to BE....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 12:41:01 PM
::snowman:: ::ski:: ::snow::

Looks like WEST TENNESSEE is the place to BE....

that always seems to be the case nowadays with late season snowfalls  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 12:42:32 PM
::snowman:: ::ski:: ::snow::

Looks like WEST TENNESSEE is the place to BE....

And west middle TN too.  ;)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 12:44:54 PM
Bring on into west middle tonight cause thats where I will be. Literally right on the boarder the banks of the Tn river
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 12:55:13 PM
Bring on into west middle tonight cause thats where I will be. Literally right on the boarder the banks of the Tn river

You aught to see a few inches then.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Scot on February 28, 2009, 12:56:47 PM
I have a GUT feeling that we aren't going to do too bad here in Middle TN either.  We shall see but I don't see how that moisture can miss us!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Beth on February 28, 2009, 01:00:19 PM
I am hoping since I am Dickson and a little more West, that I might get a little bit more snow.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 01:02:24 PM
I think west of I-65 most will see 2 or more inches.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: stan r on February 28, 2009, 01:07:28 PM
is this winter storm warning criteria?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 01:10:38 PM
is this winter storm warning criteria?

4 inches or more would be winter storm warning criteria here.

2 inches is still advisory criteria.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 01:14:42 PM
Accumulating snows beginning to be reported out of the STL CWA (eastern MO).

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 01:19:13 PM
HPC says I could see something. precip map has qpf between .25 and .5, more the farther SE you go. not sure about temps though.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Matt on February 28, 2009, 01:20:50 PM
Im getting excited!!!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 01:21:37 PM
Snow and sleet is reported to be mixing in with rain in the Memphis area now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Matt on February 28, 2009, 01:24:00 PM
Seems to me that the main precip will hit middle Tennessee. The bands wrapping around the low are filling in nicely and us in middle middle Tennessee may get a surprise tonight! Of course, that is also some wishful thinking!  ;D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 01:29:24 PM
I'm sticking with my flizzard for Nashville.  Possibly a dusting to a half inch. 

What I"m interested to see is the temp battle that will take place in Central Bama when this thing gets cranking.  They could see a good snow blitz or they could see a lot of cold rain. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 01:36:13 PM
Snow and sleet is reported to be mixing in with rain in the Memphis area now.

Do we have anyone up in the Union City or Dyersburg area that can give us a report??  My Wundermap is indicating changeover there....thoughts?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 01:38:10 PM
 Wife just called me she is in dyersburg and said sleet mixing with rain now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 01:39:23 PM
Do we have anyone up in the Union City or Dyersburg area that can give us a report??  My Wundermap is indicating changeover there....thoughts?

There are some heavy returns from that area into the boothill of Missouri.  My guess is that there could be some pretty good sleet falling there.

I'm monitoring observations, statements, and LSRs for the latest ground reports.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 01:42:38 PM
There are some heavy returns from that area into the boothill of Missouri.  My guess is that there could be some pretty good sleet falling there.

I'm monitoring observations, statements, and LSRs for the latest ground reports.

Thanks...I just checked out Poplar Bluff, MO and they are in the upper 20's and in all snow while Union City is in the middle 30's and reporting 'mist' conditions...they are about 80 miles as the crow flies or 120 by highway...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: LHSRAIDERS on February 28, 2009, 01:58:53 PM
About how much for Spring Hill, TN?

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 02:01:34 PM
I wouldn't get too excited.  I can already see the hole that's developing that will be sitting right over the mid tn area.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 02:04:19 PM
Reports of heavy sleet in midtown Memphis from a family member
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 02:07:10 PM
I will keep yall up to date here on the western front! Looks like a mix is headed though Sheby County atm. Precip bands are not moving fast at all.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 02:07:28 PM
My NWS forecast is a little ridiculous. tonight: rain low 40. 40? really? not seeing that. 18z nam looks better, farther north. the temp is unfortunately rising right now. gone from 49 to 53 in the last two hours. hopefully that will stop when the sun goes down.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 02:10:00 PM
Here is Stadium Cam atop Arkansas State University. Jonesboro is currently at 32.
(http://66.165.225.163/kait/weather/stadcam.jpg)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 02:12:13 PM
I know it's late in the game for model runs, and it's the 18Z, but check out the latest NAM at 18 hours...

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_018s.gif)

Better QPF is shifting northeastward of previous runs.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 02:13:34 PM
Wow, the new 18z NAM is a bit farther east with the precip at midnight tonight.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 02:16:53 PM
Taking the run literally... it almost looks like warning criteria snowfall for northwestern Middle TN.

12 hours...

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_012s.gif)

Looking at the radar trends, I was wondering if this was taking a slightly more northern route.  It appears the NAM may be picking up on that.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 02:18:24 PM
New NAM spitting out 3" for BNA??
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow018.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 02:33:57 PM
Quote
Winter Weather Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
216 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-010445-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WW.Y.0001.090301T0400Z-090301T2100Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE ...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
216 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN BEGINNING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...THE RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. MOST AREAS TONIGHT CAN EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW. HOWEVER...AS SNOWFALL
CONTINUES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BLOWING
SNOW CONDITIONS RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES. USE CAUTION
WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL MEANS THAT SNOW WILL CAUSE
SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS ALONG
WITH SLIPPERY SPOTS ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES...AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HUNTSVILLE.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 02:34:35 PM
Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
307 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
COLDER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. BEFORE THE
RAIN COMPLETELY CHANGES TO SNOW...SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.


TNZ012>014-035-081-082-098-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-010500-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0008.090301T0000Z-090302T0000Z/
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-MARION-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
WARTBURG...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...JASPER...JON ESVILLE...WISE...
NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON
307 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 /207 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
SUNDAY.

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3000 FEET. IN ADDITION...SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE RAIN COMPLETELY CHANGES TO SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW AND ICE
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW
DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 02:41:56 PM
Its changed over to snow in Memphis and looks pretty heavy on the webcams.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 02:47:36 PM
just saw that alex, looks pretty heavy with big time flakes too!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 02:49:29 PM
WOW, look at the latest shot out of Jonesboro. It must be coming down because the last time I check there was no snow on the ground.
(http://66.165.225.163/kait/weather/stadcam.jpg)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 02:50:27 PM
Reports of hvy snow in midtown Memphis with road accumulation. Frustrating to watch when its all rain and Im north of Memphis!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 02:50:43 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/graphic/now/outlooksmall.png)

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 02:50:56 PM
Already sticking on the west side of Memphis.  Still looks like rain on the east side of town.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 02:52:25 PM
Here is a pic from Memphis...looks like north and west Memphis are getting accums...nothing south and east. 

(http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/cctv/cctvmemp/live/CCTV_34.jpg)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 02:53:45 PM
Here is a pic from Memphis...looks like north and west Memphis are getting accums...nothing south and east. 

(http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/cctv/cctvmemp/live/CCTV_34.jpg)

I can vouch for that...nothing but rain here in the NE Metro
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 02:54:43 PM
Reports of hvy snow in midtown Memphis with road accumulation.

 ::wow::

Thanks for the report.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 02:54:58 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/graphic/now/outlooksmall.png)



That snow shield keeps moving northeast....come on give Nashville a surprise for once.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 02:55:30 PM
God, look at the nws advisories map. MRX has put the TN valley in an ocean surrounded on all sides by WWA. typical . . . .
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 02:55:39 PM
I can vouch for that...nothing but rain here in the NE Metro

Nothing beats the frustration of waiting for changeover.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Matt on February 28, 2009, 02:55:57 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/graphic/now/outlooksmall.png)



Higher accumulations seem to be shifting eastward a bit...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 02:57:44 PM
Quote
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
248 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-MOZ113-115-TNZ001-002-019-048-
282300-
CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-DUNKLIN-DYER-GREENE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-OBION-PEMISCOT-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLYTHEVILLE...DYERSBURG...JONESBORO...
KENNETT...WEST MEMPHIS
248 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 5 PM...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND IN INTENSITY OVER THE AREA. RAIN MAY MIX IN
OCCASIONALLY WITH MAJOR ROADS REMAINING WET THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SECONDARY ROADS AND GRASSY SURFACES MAY SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...ESPECIALLY ALONG
CROWLEY`S RIDGE IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO
LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN
AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME IN REACHING THEIR DESTINATIONS.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 03:00:08 PM
Rain moving through the Nashville area.

I currently have 40.5 degrees.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 03:02:33 PM
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

I hope it builds up more and the system move a bit more east over time.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 03:02:53 PM
Finally heavy sleet and 31 degrees
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 03:09:33 PM
Traffic cam from the west side of Memphis...

(http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/cctv/cctvmemp/live/CCTV_15.jpg)

 ::wow::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 03:09:52 PM
Finally heavy sleet and 31 degrees

Ground is now turning white here in Cordova.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 03:10:04 PM
FWIW, if i don't squeeze out at least an inch from this.  It could end up being the first time while growing up in TN that I have not seen at least one snowfall that didn't get an inch.  Actually, I don't think I have ever seen a year without at least a 2 inch snowfall.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 03:10:32 PM
Traffic cam from the west side of Memphis...

(http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/cctv/cctvmemp/live/CCTV_15.jpg)

 ::wow::
Wow!
I have 38.8 with light rain falling.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 03:11:21 PM
Another shot...

(http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/cctv/cctvmemp/live/CCTV_8.jpg)

That's quite a whiteout...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 03:13:25 PM
The bridge over the Mississippi River is getting snow covered.

(http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/cctv/cctvmemp/live/CCTV_9.jpg)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 03:14:34 PM
Any estimate on accumulation right now in Downtown Memphis?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 03:16:22 PM
amazing differences in metro area conditions with road accumulation occurring in the west half of the county and heavy snow. plenty of sleet here but dont see any snow atm and defintely no accums as in the city
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 03:16:48 PM
Amazin how quickly that dumped and covered!  :o
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 03:17:16 PM
The bridge over the Mississippi River is getting snow covered.

(http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/cctv/cctvmemp/live/CCTV_9.jpg)

Looks like a backup on the bridge..not a pretty place to be when it snows.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 03:17:28 PM
Ah what a site.  Someday it will snow like that here again.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 03:17:33 PM
HPC update...

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Brandon on February 28, 2009, 03:19:57 PM
I am liking that HPC map. Come on snow to pulaski.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 03:20:02 PM
We have been all snow for at least 20 minutes here in Cordova.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 03:20:17 PM
2 inches accumulation reported in Poplar Bluff, MO.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 03:21:39 PM
Looks like a backup on the bridge..not a pretty place to be when it snows.
Are the lanes on the Arkansas side still as narrow as they used to be with concrete barriers?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Jilly on February 28, 2009, 03:21:49 PM
Quote
000
FXUS64 KOHX 282112
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
312 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SURFACE MAP AT 21Z SHOWS LOW NOW CENTERED OVER
GEORGIA, WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WITH SNOW REACHING AS FAR EAST AS MEMPHIS.

TEMPERATURES AREN`T YET THAT COLD IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH 37
DEGREES AT CKV, 40 AT BNA, ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN. RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER
TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. BY 06Z, LOOK
FOR THE 500 MB LOW HEIGHT CENTER TO BE NEAR JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI,
AND NEAR MONTGOMERY BY 12Z.

GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW, EXPECT THE STRONGEST LIFT TO BE
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST, WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST, AROUND 3
INCHES STORM TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES. THUS, AM LEAVING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE CLEARING OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE MID TO UPPER
20`S IN THE MORNING, AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 40 GIVEN THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE MID STATE,
AND WILL LEAVE US DRY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A NICE WARMING
TREND THAT WILL PUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60`S BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 03:22:36 PM
Map looks good I am included in that. Are the temps cold enough aloft to start snowing at like 35 or 36
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 03:26:03 PM
Are the lanes on the Arkansas side still as narrow as they used to be with concrete barriers?

Yup under constant construction. Trucks just wear that road out.

BTW all snow here. Family member in the city still reports heavy snow with near whiteout conditions and about an inch that is sticking to side roads. No accums here atm.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 03:26:58 PM
Good looking deformation about to cross the Mississippi River all along the TN/AR state line.  Most of the far western counties should be getting in on the action in the next hour, I think.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 03:31:04 PM
I have light drizzle with 38.6F.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 03:40:28 PM
Cloudy and 38.1
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 03:44:25 PM
Map looks good I am included in that. Are the temps cold enough aloft to start snowing at like 35 or 36
Appears to be the case for a mix....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 28, 2009, 03:45:17 PM
Question..the HPC has me in 40% Chance of snow >4 inches but yet NWS says little or no accumulations?

Is the low still on track to move more southernly track?
12z gfs looked a little more north
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ST1 on February 28, 2009, 03:49:03 PM
SREF snowfall mean shows very little to none for East TN except in the mountains. Not that much for the rest of TN either.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 03:51:05 PM
18Z GFS... a little better QPF coverage for Middle TN.

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_018s.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 03:51:26 PM
deffinetly looking like a more of a west tn storm.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 03:52:33 PM
Kevin (Memphis Weather) says on Talkweather that he has an inch of snow in Shelby County.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 28, 2009, 03:52:53 PM
18Z GFS brings more precip into EAST TN!

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_024s.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 03:54:12 PM
memphis getting hammered right now as we speak, local station showed a shot of outside, its coming down hard, plenty on the backside yet to come through.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 03:55:56 PM
I'm having problems with stubborn temps
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 03:57:48 PM
Roads in Arlington are completey white and covered now. Mod to hvy snow atm. Video here was shot about 30 minutes ago:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhXZc0XlwhM
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 03:58:05 PM
 Snowing here still mixed with some sleet.Temp at 33
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 03:59:11 PM
I know the mods don't like things to be double posted when it comes to NWS statements and such, however I personally this makes an exception given some folks are questioning the moisture coverage over middle TN:

Quote
000
FXUS64 KOHX 282112
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
312 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SURFACE MAP AT 21Z SHOWS LOW NOW CENTERED OVER
GEORGIA, WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WITH SNOW REACHING AS FAR EAST AS MEMPHIS.

TEMPERATURES AREN`T YET THAT COLD IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH 37
DEGREES AT CKV, 40 AT BNA, ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN. RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER
TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS.
BY 06Z, LOOK
FOR THE 500 MB LOW HEIGHT CENTER TO BE NEAR JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI,
AND NEAR MONTGOMERY BY 12Z.

GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW, EXPECT THE STRONGEST LIFT TO BE
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST, WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST, AROUND 3
INCHES STORM TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES. THUS, AM LEAVING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE CLEARING OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE MID TO UPPER
20`S IN THE MORNING, AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 40 GIVEN THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE MID STATE,
AND WILL LEAVE US DRY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A NICE WARMING
TREND THAT WILL PUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60`S BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 04:00:07 PM
Roads in Arlington are completey white and covered now. Mod to hvy snow atm. Video here was shot about 30 minutes ago:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhXZc0XlwhM

Congrats!  ::applause::

The dog at the end doesn't know what to think of it.  :)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 04:00:45 PM
I'm having problems with stubborn temps

They'll come down soon.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Woodvegas on February 28, 2009, 04:03:00 PM
18Z GFS gives me 1.5 inches. I can't decide if I should be grateful or disappointed.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Brandon on February 28, 2009, 04:04:17 PM
Yes, Cameron. It is good to point that out! Deeper moisture should get more snow cranking a little later.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 28, 2009, 04:05:57 PM
So the 18Z GFS showed more moisture here...like did it show the low more north or just more moisture?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 04:06:16 PM
Roads in Arlington are completey white and covered now. Mod to hvy snow atm. Video here was shot about 30 minutes ago:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhXZc0XlwhM

Just popped that up on my Facebook page! :)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 04:31:13 PM
SQUIGGLY LINE ALERT!!

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0178.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...FAR NWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 282157Z - 010200Z
   
   SNOWFALL/SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY SPREADING INTO NRN
   MS...AND A RECENT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN TN NEAR
   MEMPHIS. WHILE MDT/HVY SNOWFALL MAY BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE AT
   TIMES...THE MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH THE SLOW NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
   POTENTIALLY ANOMALOUS OVERALL SNOW TOTALS FOR THE REGION.
   
   A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR THE KS/MO/OK/AR
   BORDERS. AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
   SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL STATES...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS HAS
   STRENGTHENED...EXTENDING WNWWD THROUGH NRN AL/MS...NWWD THROUGH THE
   TN/AR BORDERS...AND NWD INTO WRN MO. THIS HAS REMAINED A FAVORED
   AREA FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG UPPER
   DIVERGENCE/FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AS A 95+ KT 500 MB JET...OBSERVED
   ON RECENT PROFILER DATA...NOSES INTO THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION
   HAS SEEMINGLY BEEN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS HAVE PREVIOUSLY
   INDICATED...AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE SNOW IS
   ONGOING...WHILE ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES ARE NOW SUBFREEZING.
   ADDITIONALLY...TRAFFIC/WEBCAMS ACROSS NRN MS ARE INDICATIVE THAT A
   TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED AS WELL...AND ACCUMULATION HAS
   ALREADY BEGUN. INITIAL RATES...PERHAPS LACKING UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY
   SLOT...WILL IMPROVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEWD.
   MOISTURE SEEN ON WV AND RADAR IMAGERY WILL THEN WRAP
   AROUND...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
   CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
   MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOMALOUS
   TOTALS OWING TO THE INITIAL/RELATIVE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 02/28/2009
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Brandon on February 28, 2009, 04:46:40 PM
I like that squiggly. Two counties away. This might actually be the time it really snows this winter. Still cautious.  ::yum::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 04:47:16 PM
 Moderate snow here, ground white now.Roads still clear.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 04:47:34 PM
Site went down for a little bit... glad it's back up.

Accumulations so far from West TN:

Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
436 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..


0340 PM     SNOW             UNION CITY              36.42N 89.05W
02/28/2009  E1.2 INCH        OBION              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING. SOME ACCUMULATIONS NOW
            APPEARING ON MAIN ROADWAYS.

0350 PM     SNOW             3 N BARTLETT            35.26N 89.84W
02/28/2009  M2.0 INCH        SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW FELL IN A LITTLE MORE THAN AN HOURS TIME.

0355 PM     SNOW             1 N GERMANTOWN          35.10N 89.79W
02/28/2009  M1.5 INCH        SHELBY             TN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0412 PM     SNOW             JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
02/28/2009  E2.0 INCH        CRAIGHEAD          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SNOW ACCUMULATION ESTIMATED AT 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES. SOME
            SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WITH SEVERAL ACCIDENTS
            REPORTED IN TOWN.

0435 PM     SNOW             1 N GERMANTOWN          35.10N 89.79W
02/28/2009  M2.0 INCH        SHELBY             TN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS


2 inches so far officially in Memphis.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 04:48:00 PM
Been having problems with the site all day...but while I have it at least...as of 15 minutes ago I had 1.6" of snow...probably a little more than that now. NWS Memphis about 2 miles west of me has an even 2.0".

Memphis it seems will get dryslotted in the next hour...question will be where/if redevelopment occurs in the metro...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 04:50:08 PM
Based on KNQA radar, I think we're going to hear of some impressive snow totals along the AR/TN border north of Memphis.  There is some heavy stuff falling in the Osceola/Blytheville areas.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 04:53:04 PM
Just popped that up on my Facebook page! :)

Thanks bro!

Here are some more pics from 30 minutes ago:



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 04:54:07 PM
Nice pics!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bigalpha on February 28, 2009, 04:55:31 PM
I sure hope Clarksville can take advantage of some of that winter weather energy.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 04:56:58 PM
There's an intensifying area of precip along the TN River west of Nashville... I'm guessing that's probably rain mixed with sleet.  My current temperature is 38.8.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 04:58:18 PM
I know we're all gonna go googoo over the updated HPC snowfall map...

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 28, 2009, 04:58:57 PM
Still coming down here at a rapid clip in eastern Shelby County.

Hopefully this isn't the end of the show. This precip zone is lifting out of the area, but hopefully we're in for round two tonight with the wraparound moisture on the backside.

I really had hoped this thing had deepened a bit more and sat on top of us a bit more as it make its left hand turn, but it's been impressive so far. Changed over a lot quicker than I expected.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bigalpha on February 28, 2009, 04:59:42 PM
Ha, that HPC map leaves clarksville out of the 10%!  lol.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 28, 2009, 05:00:28 PM
that HPC map shows my area in 40% chance of >4 inches
yet NWS Morristown says hardly any accumulations in my area!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 05:00:45 PM
 still snowing here
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 05:01:00 PM
I know we're all gonna go googoo over the updated HPC snowfall map...

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif)

well I'll be darn.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 05:01:58 PM
2.1" here in East Memphis as of 5:00 PM...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 05:02:20 PM
Thundersnow I have 37.4F here right now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: toastido on February 28, 2009, 05:03:08 PM
well I'll be darn.

Congrats North AL/SRN TN!!   ::snowman::

Hasn't started here yet... all we've had today has been brisk north winds and coooold temps, getting colder.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 05:03:16 PM
2.1" here in East Memphis as of 5:00 PM...

Fantastic way to go guys!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 05:03:23 PM
Thundersnow I have 37.4F here right now.

At least, it's started a downward trend.  I was at a little over 40 for quite a while.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on February 28, 2009, 05:03:40 PM
At 4 P.M.
On  2/28/09
Temp : 34
Rainfall : 0.55 "
Rain changed to Ice Pellets at 3:30 P.M.
Ice Pellets changed to Snow at 3:50 P.M.
It is SNOWING   Now here in Bemis - Jackson, Tn.  ::flag::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 05:04:11 PM
Thanks for the report, Mr. Brantley!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: lavette on February 28, 2009, 05:05:00 PM
If we get an accumulating snow, will this be a wet snow?
How is it determined whether it will be a wet snow or powdery type?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 05:06:15 PM
If we get an accumulating snow, will this be a wet snow?
How is it determined whether it will be a wet snow or powdery type?


It will be wet... simply because the temperatures are marginal (not very cold).

Dry powdery snow is more likely when it is colder... like 20s or colder.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 05:06:26 PM
Currently 36.6 and falling quickly.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 28, 2009, 05:09:36 PM
Congrats North AL/SRN TN!!   ::snowman::

Hasn't started here yet... all we've had today has been brisk north winds and coooold temps, getting colder.  

 ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Extremewxlover on February 28, 2009, 05:12:47 PM
dry snow can fall wen temps are in the mid 30's. but the air ha to be dry. that's happened before when a there isn't barely any moisture, so the cold air squeezes it out.
but with this sytem, there is moisture. and temps are in the 30's so the snow is wet or middle  of dry and wet
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on February 28, 2009, 05:13:01 PM
At 5 P.M.
SNOWING !
Temp : 32
Light Dusting so far.
Expecting 2 to 4 inches here.  ::flag::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 05:14:39 PM
Well, according to the metar at Smyrna airport, we're at a balmy 39F.  We've dropped a measly 2 degrees in a few hours.  I hope we start sliding downhill in a hurry...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 05:18:49 PM
Well, according to the metar at Smyrna airport, we're at a balmy 39F.  We've dropped a measly 2 degrees in a few hours.  I hope we start sliding downhill in a hurry...

No one really needs to worry about temps...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 05:19:30 PM
Well, according to the metar at Smyrna airport, we're at a balmy 39F.  We've dropped a measly 2 degrees in a few hours.  I hope we start sliding downhill in a hurry...

I'm more worried about the moisture deepening here than anything. Sun's going down and temps have been falling generally west to east. I think we'll been good there.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 05:19:46 PM
Getting ready to go over 3 inches
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 05:23:46 PM
Is it me or is the RUC getting wetter and wetter with each run?  Temps look steady, but by my eye, there looks to be more qpf.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 05:24:54 PM
Is it me or is the RUC getting wetter and wetter with each run?  Temps look steady, but by my eye, there looks to be more qpf.

Eric yes it has, I just looked at it and it is generating some Nice QPF numbers locally.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Josh on February 28, 2009, 05:26:33 PM
What's it looking like for Lawrence Co. TN?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Susan on February 28, 2009, 05:27:28 PM
omfg look at the hole now..... im not going to get nothing out of this event at all.

Skills, I do not appreciate getting on here and reading language like that.  Using an acronym doesn't make it any more appropriate.

Susan
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 05:27:34 PM
Eric since you said something I just ran bufkit....... Everyone brace yourself..... I will run this every hours and update on here...

22Z RUC
7PM -1AM  Total QPF is .662" .
Bufkit shows 6.2" @ 10:1 and 11.6" @ Omega zone.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 05:29:26 PM
Eric since you said something I just ran bufkit....... Everyone brace yourself.....

22Z RUC
7PM -1AM  Total QPF is .662" .
Bufkit shows 6.2" @ 10:1 and 11.6" @ Omega zone.

 ::rofl:: :o ::rofl:: ::snowman:: ::guitar::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 05:29:45 PM
LOL.  GRLevel3 is showing a hail signature near Lobelville.  If conditions were right, I would say to watch out for that to become severe.

That is some pretty heavy precip there... probably sleet.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 05:32:51 PM
::rofl:: :o ::rofl:: ::snowman:: ::guitar::


That's what I said......Lets see how things go for the next couple hours. I do believe 6" may be high but my thinking right now is that Middle Tennessee could see 2-4" rather than 1-2.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 05:33:50 PM
LOL.  GRLevel3 is showing a hail signature near Lobelville.  If conditions were right, I would say to watch out for that to become severe.

That is some pretty heavy precip there... probably sleet.
I am about 15 miles south of there and I can safely say no hail here. Here we have a light mist falling with temps at 38.8 and falling slowly
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Brandon on February 28, 2009, 05:34:04 PM
Wow. Huntsville goes WSW for north alabama and south tennessee.

Quote
..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. PERIODS OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY
TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY. MOST AREAS TONIGHT CAN EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES. HOWEVER...AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BLOWING
SNOW CONDITIONS RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES. USE CAUTION
WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 05:34:28 PM
omfg look at the hole now..... im not going to get nothing out of this event at all.

I understand your frustration, but I hope you wern't meaning God. If so, please review commandment #3. ::shrug::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 05:34:46 PM
I'm going to go out on a limb, based on the brightbanding that's been setting up along the central TN/AR stateline... someone in that area is going to see accumulations greater than 6 inches.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 05:35:06 PM
18Z Gfs Bufkit shows 2-3". Since this is based from Old Hickory greater amounts look possible to the S and SW
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 05:35:54 PM
hang in there, it will fiil in nicely shortly. the ull hasnt even goten going good yet, still way to the nw of us.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 05:36:17 PM
2.4" as of 5:30 PM...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 05:37:10 PM
Okay peeps, just a friendly reminder.  It's clear we're on the road to Snow-ville.  There's bound to be some frustration from not seeing enough snow, to being dry-slotted, etc. and tempers are liable to erupt.  Let's keep our conversations clean and friendly.  This board will not tolerate any foul language, whether it's spelled out or hidden by an acronym as this is a family-oriented forum.  Let's enjoy this bountiful inch or two of snow and have a wonderful time.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 05:37:35 PM
Watching the Memphis radar.... This thing is moving slow! Frustrating watching it slowly move this way.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Brandon on February 28, 2009, 05:38:57 PM
Now Eric, I close to state line and I expect no less than 4 inches.  :D  ;D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 05:39:53 PM
Skills, I do not appreciate getting on here and reading language like that.  Using an acronym doesn't make it any more appropriate.

Susan

 ::applause::  Thank you for pointing that out Susan!  ::applause::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 05:40:53 PM
good sign nashville_w, means takes longer to move out. nws says should snow up to early sun morning here
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 05:41:45 PM
Now Eric, I close to state line and I expect no less than 4 inches.  :D  ;D

At this point, the old adage holds true...want in one hand and spit in the other....see which one fills up the fastest.   :P ;D :D ::whistling::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 05:42:10 PM
Hold down the fort, everybody... going to meet friends for dinner... and hoping I don't get snow stranded...

Will check in later.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 05:42:50 PM
Wow. Huntsville goes WSW for north alabama and south tennessee.


I have to believe that OHX will upgrade to a WSW at some point tonight. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 05:44:27 PM
Wow!

0535 PM     SNOW             3 N BARTLETT            35.26N 89.84W   
02/28/2009  M5.0 INCH        SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER   
 
            RECEIVED 5 INCHES IN PAST THREE HOURS. OBSERVATION TAKEN   
            ON SNOWBOARD 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 05:44:41 PM
Currently: 36.1
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 05:46:22 PM
Wow!

0535 PM     SNOW             3 N BARTLETT            35.26N 89.84W  
02/28/2009  M5.0 INCH        SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
            RECEIVED 5 INCHES IN PAST THREE HOURS. OBSERVATION TAKEN  
            ON SNOWBOARD 

 ::wow::

Let me revise my out-on-a-limb estimate about 6 inches or more.

Someone is going to see 8 inches or more... I wouldn't be surprised to hear of totals of a foot somewhere in far West TN or eastern AR.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 05:46:41 PM
I have to believe that OHX will upgrade to a WSW at some point tonight. 

Probably for persons living to the West of Nashville...possibly to the south as well...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 05:47:17 PM
Okay peeps, just a friendly reminder.  It's clear we're on the road to Snow-ville.  There's bound to be some frustration from not seeing enough snow, to being dry-slotted, etc. and tempers are liable to erupt.  Let's keep our conversations clean and friendly.  This board will not tolerate any foul language, whether it's spelled out or hidden by an acronym as this is a family-oriented forum.  Let's enjoy this bountiful inch or two of snow and have a wonderful time.

What he said, in BOLD and ITALICS!!!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 05:50:45 PM
hey guys. on my phone cant see model output. is it looking any better for my neck of the woods
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 05:53:49 PM
I have to believe that OHX will upgrade to a WSW at some point tonight. 
Eric I hope they do as well.  I am interesting to see this heavy return heading our way. Most likely a intense area of sleet

Temp here in Bellevue 36.5F
       Kingston Springs 35.2F
          On The Trace  35.4F
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 05:54:46 PM
Well it's not any worse, but I can't vouch for Chat getting much snow as per local NWS forecast.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 05:56:46 PM
Eric latest out

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_p01_003m.gif)

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 05:57:36 PM
Eric latest out

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_p01_003m.gif)



Me likey....just got to shift little more eastward....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 05:59:08 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_p01_004m.gif)
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_p01_005m.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Josh on February 28, 2009, 05:59:43 PM
I'm new to this. How much accum. might I get in Lawrence Co. TN?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 28, 2009, 06:00:36 PM
guys i just got home from my granddad's funeral(please pray for my family), what is it looking like for knoxville?

thank you
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 06:02:07 PM
They are going to have to up the snow amounts for this general area I have a feeling. 1-2" is going to become 2-4". Not sure we will meet warning criteria.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Brandon on February 28, 2009, 06:02:55 PM
Choo Choo, i would say 2-4" along the alabama border.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 06:03:21 PM
I'm new to this. How much accum. might I get in Lawrence Co. TN?

Probably 1-4" I would say.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 06:03:30 PM
i keep u and your family in my prayers
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 06:03:45 PM
I'm new to this. How much accum. might I get in Lawrence Co. TN?

Just popping into one zone forecast in Lawrence Co., I got this:

Quote
Tonight: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 9pm. Low around 30. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of snow before noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 37. North northwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 06:04:42 PM
Sorry for your loss, maryvillereb.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 06:05:22 PM
Well it's not any worse, but I can't vouch for Chat getting much snow as per local NWS forecast.
                well the nws hasnt successfully predicted a snowfall forr me in several years so i consider the fact that they dont predict it a plus. mrx really hates on the valley for snow
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 06:05:36 PM
(http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_48HR.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Josh on February 28, 2009, 06:06:22 PM
Thank You.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 06:08:48 PM
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KOHX&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20090228&endTime=-1&duration=0

I'm guessing this is sleet in Hickman Co? Looks pretty bright to me.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 06:09:43 PM
                well the nws hasnt successfully predicted a snowfall forr me in several years so i consider the fact that they dont predict it a plus. mrx really hates on the valley for snow

I know. I certainly hope you get some out that way.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 06:12:05 PM
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KOHX&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20090228&endTime=-1&duration=0

I'm guessing this is sleet in Hickman Co? Looks pretty bright to me.

It's even maintained a hail sig on GRLevel3
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 06:13:13 PM
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KOHX&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20090228&endTime=-1&duration=0

I'm guessing this is sleet in Hickman Co? Looks pretty bright to me.

Yes I believe that is a area of Heavy Sleet.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 06:14:28 PM
Alright seriously I've been at 38.8 for like 2 hours now I'm starting to think my themometer is stuck
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 06:16:21 PM
23Z RUC seems a bit more reasonable and has better timing of the onset of precip. What I am listing below is what I can see given the available hours shown on RUC. Moisture still looks good at all levels when the run gets cut off. Next run will give a little better insight as well are nearing the event.

SN- 3" @ 10:1 or 8" @ omega zone. I believe there will be times where ratios are higher than 10:1.  

I believe the 2-4" is not out of the question now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 06:17:06 PM
Down to 35.8F Bellevue Mall.
Down to 34.7F Outside Bellevue.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Extremewxlover on February 28, 2009, 06:22:43 PM
HOW COME MEMPHIS'S BEEN GETING MORE SNOW THAN NASHVILLE OVER THE PAST 6 YEARS?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 06:23:20 PM
Alright seriously I've been at 38.8 for like 2 hours now I'm starting to think my themometer is stuck

Where exactly are you at? You should put a location next to your name.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: WXHD on February 28, 2009, 06:28:46 PM
I'm at 33/34 with a falling mist. I'll be there in an hour, if it's still coming. Until then I'm gonna play my COD:World at War, finish cooking my ribs, and watch my wife paint. It's on! Don't know how much we'll get, but it's gonna snow. LOVE IT!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Extremewxlover on February 28, 2009, 06:29:10 PM
it seems that the snow is moving more east and less southwest. IS THAT GOOD FOR NASVILLE
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 06:30:00 PM
Yes I should sorry I will do that but I don't know where I should put because I live in South Jackson during the week but on most every weekend I'm where I am now in Perry Co on the Tn river.

Edit: I put Perry Co on there since I will probably be here a lot more in the future. Sorry should of done that along time ago.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 28, 2009, 06:32:20 PM
knoxville,anyone?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 06:36:11 PM
knoxville,anyone?

Here is your zone forecast per MRX:

Quote
Tonight: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 37. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Breezy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on February 28, 2009, 06:38:05 PM
BOY THE INTERNET IS BUSY TONIGHT HERE IN WEST TENN.
At 6 P.M.
IT IS STILL SNOWING ! :  1  1/4  INCHES HERE SO FAR.
Temp : 31  
Visibility :  3/4  mile .   ::flag::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 06:39:46 PM
Great news, Mr. Brantley!!  Keep updating us when you can!!!   ::applause::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 06:43:46 PM
(http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_48HR.gif)

this is an EPIC ripoff for east TN. If this verifies theres gonna be some screaming down here.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 06:50:04 PM
Just measured 5 inches and still snowing
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 06:50:45 PM
lol i hope east tn dont get a flurry yall got all of are snow. so yall can suffer.  ::rofl::   ::applause::

excuse me? I have seen 11 days with snow and NO accumulations at all. havent seen a major snowfall in 13 YEARS. don't you dare . . .  ::shaking_finger::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 06:52:35 PM
For all of you getting a little.......nippy and territorial....

(http://karenjlloyd.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/play-nice-300x174.jpg)

"PLAY NICE!"
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 06:53:32 PM
still snowing here
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 06:55:27 PM
moderate snow roads becoming slick temp32.Scanner becoming active with trafic problems
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 06:56:11 PM
Just measured 5 inches and still snowing
Just saw your LSR! Congrats! You guys are looking good still...

Looks as if enhancement is taking place over the Metro now though to the SW...so hopefully things will pick back up here some. About 2.7" now...averaging only 1/4" per hour at this point vs 1"+ earlier...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 06:56:51 PM
For all of you getting a little.......nippy and territorial....

(http://karenjlloyd.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/play-nice-300x174.jpg)

"PLAY NICE!"

sorry. temper is a bit short this evening. looking more and more like the 13 year streak will live on while cities to my SOUTH continue to get more snow than me. :'(
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 06:57:39 PM
Great reports...and this stuff is not moving very swiftly...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 06:59:43 PM
Memphis care to give a quick thought on middle Tennessee. I currently am thinking 2-4" with 3-4" being somewhat localized to areas along and south of I-40.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 07:00:43 PM
This is from earlier today. Makes you wonder if John Madden works for NOAA.  ::pondering:: :D

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: WH Jason on February 28, 2009, 07:01:15 PM
(http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_48HR.gif)

Seriously?  Sumner and Robertson counties in the 6 to 8 inch range?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 07:02:28 PM
Memphis care to give a quick thought on middle Tennessee. I currently am thinking 2-4" with 3-4" being somewhat localized to areas along and south of I-40.
Just briefly looking..that looks pretty reasonable. Obviously West of 65 looks best at this point...as well as south of 40.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 07:03:45 PM
Just looked out the door and it is snowing...very lightly and there are no radar returns in my neck o'da woods yet....sooooooooooo
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 07:04:50 PM
I am going to forecast 1-3" in Nashville with 2-4" at the TN River.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: StormNine on February 28, 2009, 07:05:02 PM
I would love to see some precipitation to burst out eastward.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Matt on February 28, 2009, 07:06:44 PM
Did our WWA expire or is not showing on the warning maps? ::shrug::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 07:07:19 PM
Lets not forget that the atmosphere is saturated therefore it may be lightly raining or snowing even though nothing is showing on radar.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 07:12:27 PM
Just looked out the door and it is snowing...very lightly and there are no radar returns in my neck o'da woods yet....sooooooooooo

Funny how all of us weather geeks are on the computer and then look outside and end up surprised!! I'm guilty of the same!! :)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 07:14:49 PM
Maybe it got canceled haha.  Really I wouldn't be surprised.  When is this moisture suppose to break out?  It doesn't look like it's showing any signs of doing so.  Allthough it looks like a band is setting up around Dickson.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 07:15:15 PM
Funny how all of us weather geeks are on the computer and then look outside and end up surprised!! I'm guilty of the same!! :)

 ::coffee::

Yep...that's about how it happened...I said to myself...."SELF!!!!  LOOK OUT THE WINDOW, YOU MAROON!"   ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 07:16:50 PM
I just realized this but the bright red you see on radar on the cell near Dickson is probably heavy sleet and snow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 07:17:36 PM
 Just talked to my Aunt and Uncle in Gilt Edge TN...Western Tipton County (North of Memphis)...they just measured right at 6"...

About 2.9 here...snow continues to increase again...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 07:19:11 PM
It is sleeting like crazy in here now temps finally dropped about 3 degrees in 45 minutes.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 07:19:50 PM
I'm not sure what screen you guys are looking at..

www.weather.gov

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/


The main screen on the forum (from The Storm Prediction Center) primarily shows Watches and Warnings and only certain types of advisories (not all of them).
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 07:20:08 PM
Just heard from a friend in Memphis..he has 5.3" on the ground.

.45" Water Equivalent giving him a 12:1 ratio...not too bad!!!

Tells me a friend near Arlington has measured 4"...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 28, 2009, 07:20:13 PM
 ::wow:: theres always hope for us eastern tennessee folks!
hpc says 40% of >4inches so lets not give up!
18Z GFS showed alot more moisture for our area....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 07:20:17 PM
 snowing hard here again
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 07:30:28 PM
0720 PM     SNOW             BLYTHEVILLE             35.93N 89.92W   
02/28/2009  E7.5 INCH        MISSISSIPPI        AR   PUBLIC   
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 07:32:02 PM
Local Wunderground station has our temp down to 35.1
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ST1 on February 28, 2009, 07:32:22 PM
I still don't think we will get much to any but MRX is saying the higher elevations could see two inches and the valleys could get an inch.  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 28, 2009, 07:32:50 PM
 ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 07:32:57 PM
 Trafic problems all over our area now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on February 28, 2009, 07:34:50 PM
At  7 P.M.
STILL SNOWING ! ::snowman::
Temp : 30
Wind  Chill : 20
Visibility :  3/4 mile.
2  1/2  Inches  so far here. ::flag::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 07:35:04 PM
unreal, just heard a big limb break. snow is so heavy limbs starting to break. something to think about .
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 07:35:19 PM
0720 PM     SNOW             BLYTHEVILLE             35.93N 89.92W   
02/28/2009  E7.5 INCH        MISSISSIPPI        AR   PUBLIC   

Hmmmm...that amount concerns me...did they measure it properly...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 07:35:37 PM
Trafic problems all over our area now.

Hopefully nothing too bad ...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 07:36:51 PM
Hmmmm...that amount concerns me...did they measure it properly...
Blytheville has been in +SN for hours...I think it reasonable...

MEG is upping totals to 3 to 9 inches...Highest in that Blytheville area SE to around Brownsville TN
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 07:37:10 PM
All minor so far.Snowing still.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 07:37:39 PM
Dusting of snow reported via NWS in Dickson TN...coming into Middle TN kids! :)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Susan on February 28, 2009, 07:38:04 PM
Heavy sleet here
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Josh on February 28, 2009, 07:38:49 PM
Moderate rain and sleet in Lawrence Co. TN
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 07:39:39 PM
Blytheville has been in +SN for hours...I think it reasonable...

MEG is upping totals to 3 to 9 inches...Highest in that Blytheville area SE to around Brownsville TN

My bad...I misread that to say Blytheville, MS...not Blytheville, AR....that amount is reasonable! :)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 07:40:52 PM
From the radar looks like we may see snow at least til midnight here.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 07:41:12 PM
nws is annie up the accumulations here in west tn as we speak wow
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 07:41:23 PM
My bad...I misread that to say Blytheville, MS...not Blytheville, AR....that amount is reasonable! :)
Ahh, yes! Very commomplace being in Mississippi County AR!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 07:41:52 PM
Radar starting to pick up in Middle Tennessee.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 07:42:11 PM
My bad...I misread that to say Blytheville, MS...not Blytheville, AR....that amount is reasonable! :)
It's okay to mistake... I know first hand that Blythville is no more than a shrinking town of 15,000 or so people. Dad was raised there.

Memphis WX can tell you all that there is in NE AR outside of Jonesboro!  :D ;)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: StormNine on February 28, 2009, 07:42:40 PM
It is coming hope radar fills in to the east more
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 28, 2009, 07:43:13 PM
from Talkweather.com User posted this apparently from:
Blytheville, Arkansas

(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3529/3317980648_2ff9fb1d33_m.jpg)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Beth on February 28, 2009, 07:43:27 PM
Heavy sleet and snow mixing here in Dickson, has been for the last hour. My temp is at 36. :)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on February 28, 2009, 07:44:20 PM
Sleeting here in S. franklin but it is 38 degrees....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 07:44:34 PM
It's okay to mistake... I know first hand that Blythville is no more than a shrinking town of 15,000 or so people. Dad was raised there.

Memphis WX can tell you all that there is in NE AR outside of Jonesboro!  :D ;)
LOL! Just about!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 07:45:16 PM
 wow thats impressive we are no where near that amout yet.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Jilly on February 28, 2009, 07:46:18 PM
Mostly rain with some sleet mixed in. Dang, if it was just colder. It's coming down at a good clip.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 07:46:38 PM
Not sure I agree with this, I think the changeover is going to occur in many areas WELL before 10 as everyone has already been reporting..   ::shrug::

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/graphic/now/nowsmall.png)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 07:53:28 PM
I have 34.1 with light rain.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 07:55:58 PM
Just got a phone call from a friend they were at the 36 mile marker on 40 and said cars sliding off the interstate everywhere.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: jerrygreen on February 28, 2009, 07:57:20 PM
Just dropped to 35.5 in Readyville in Cannon County with drizzle just starting.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: StormNine on February 28, 2009, 08:00:31 PM
  We have a very light dusting on roofs and grass.  With light to moderate snow it is foggy out there so it is kinda hard to see the flakes.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on February 28, 2009, 08:01:39 PM
Rain/Sleet mix in Columbia
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 08:04:17 PM
Snow mixing in in bellevue.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Storm Central on February 28, 2009, 08:04:47 PM
Well NAM leave Tennessee Moisture Starved at HR 18
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 28, 2009, 08:06:22 PM
you guys think east tn will get snow out of this? it looks like its headed this way but the models and the forecasts say otherwise...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 08:07:55 PM
Full-blown FLIZZARD here in Southern Rutherford Co....oddly...no rain mixed in..this is just snow..
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 08:09:46 PM
bands look to be intensifing more, looks like a little lifting going on around parts of west tn. tis thing mite be gaining a little stength.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 08:10:01 PM
Full-blown FLIZZARD here in Southern Rutherford Co....oddly...no rain mixed in..this is just snow..

Good, send it north to Old Hickory/Hermitage.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 08:13:39 PM
wouldn surprise me to get reports of thunder snow soon, dynamics looks favorable.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 08:14:42 PM
Looks like the storm is ramping up a bit.  Just by looking at the cloud layer.  Also looks to be moving more southerly than easterly.  Going to be a nail biter for Nashville, in my honest opinion.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shadowbird on February 28, 2009, 08:15:34 PM
It is finally down to freezing here in E. Hickman Co.
We have had a sleet storm for over an hour.
Things are very wet from the rain and then the sleet so it's going to get slick now.
At about 6:30 my husband was on the way home from Dickson and he passed a highway department truck that was slinging dry salt or whatever they use. With all the rain that was coming down I can't imagine it will have much effect.
Snow finally mixing in with sleet but still more sleet than snow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 08:21:11 PM
This was issued with the earlier HPC map that I posted.  I just didn't bother to look at the 8" proosibilities...  ::wow:: ::wow::

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_08.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 08:23:29 PM
 Wet snow wieghing on trees here now.Almost white out conditions at times.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 08:25:52 PM
latest short term forecast from nws has the snow moving saying nearly staionary, wow
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 08:26:16 PM
0810 PM     SNOW             STANTON                 35.46N 89.40W   
02/28/2009  E8.0 INCH        HAYWOOD            TN   AMATEUR RADIO     
 
            SOME TEN INCH DRIFTS. 
 
0815 PM     SNOW             GILT EDGE               35.53N 89.83W   
02/28/2009  E8.0 INCH        TIPTON             TN   PUBLIC           
 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 08:28:50 PM
yep, kevin, i think someone is going to get the ole footer i think (12in)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 08:29:04 PM
 ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 08:29:13 PM
latest short term forecast from nws has the snow moving saying nearly staionary, wow
That would make things interesting to say the least
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 08:30:26 PM
I tell ya, anybody looking to get data from the SREF...don't bother.  It's on crack....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 08:31:01 PM
Nashville now reporting light snow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 08:32:28 PM
Very light snow in Hville.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 08:33:18 PM
Metars at Nashville Int'l and Smyrna Airport read 35F and 36F respectively...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 08:34:29 PM
seems some of the models and such tools arent handling this dynamic ull to well it seems. could be a few surprisesl
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 08:34:45 PM
Hope it starts snowing here soon.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Matt on February 28, 2009, 08:35:39 PM
Has the general track of the ULL changed much or is it still generally moving in the same direction?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 28, 2009, 08:36:23 PM
i would really like to know if someone thinks this may track a little more east to hit knoxville at all
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 08:36:38 PM
o yes very wet and sticky sno. done hit my wife with a good snowball, proably mesed up my nite later , o well i can watch it snow at least.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on February 28, 2009, 08:37:14 PM
AT  8 P.M.
STILL SNOWING !
3  1/4  Inches  here  so far.
Temp : 30   ::flag::

Skillsweather :  YES : Tonight here in Jackson, Tn : it is. ::flag::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 08:38:22 PM
o yes very wet and sticky sno. done hit my wife with a good snowball, proably mesed up my nite later , o well i can watch it snow at least.

Somebody's sleeping on the couch tonight.  ::whistling::  ;)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 08:39:10 PM
yes very wet great for snowballs and snowmen
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 08:39:31 PM
MEG upping snow totals again...up to 13"

REST OF TONIGHT...BRISK. SNOW LATE IN THE EVENING
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
2 TO 5 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 13 INCHES. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 08:40:56 PM
Im at 35 still I'm fixing to open the freezer door
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 08:41:23 PM
MEG upping snow totals again...up to 13"

REST OF TONIGHT...BRISK. SNOW LATE IN THE EVENING
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
2 TO 5 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 13 INCHES. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

For who...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 08:42:17 PM
For who...
That's for Tipton County North...

For Shelby County its 2 to 9 inches...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: lyngo on February 28, 2009, 08:42:24 PM
I'm hoping that slug of moisture north of Lawrenceburg makes it up this way!   ::yum::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 08:43:44 PM
I have 33.2 with light rain. Cooler than the airport but the airport has snow falling?? Hmm...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 08:45:17 PM
I am still rain here at 32F. Only thing I can think of is a warm layer around 925mb.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 08:45:34 PM
o crap, mite be good nite for me yall, my lites are seriously flickering off n on.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 08:47:07 PM
o crap, mite be good nite for me yall, my lites are seriously flickering off n on.
WOW!! Then again not surprising under all the wet snow. How much you got?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 28, 2009, 08:48:05 PM
guess no snow for knoxville lol. how do we miss out to the north south east AND west. ugh
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 08:49:30 PM
Just talked to a buddy of mine driving through Jackson and he said where he is the roads HORRIBLE and its took him forever to go 20 miles home
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 08:50:07 PM
as of 30 min. ago roughly 5 wet inches at least, still snowing har.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 08:50:59 PM
Notice the radar returns heading down from the North and up from the South. Heavy band moving north through southern middle tennessee. Looks like this will band up and create a pretty good shield of SN.Changover should happen any time now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 08:51:16 PM
It sometimes happens my friend. You got the snow a few weeks ago the Middle TN missed.

(http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KBNA.gif)
I think you're your right about the temperature inversion aloft, Nashville.

I think the higher elevations of Davidson Co. towards Joelton and Radnor Lake could have some light ice.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 08:52:42 PM
It sometimes happens my friend. You got the snow a few weeks ago the Middle TN missed.

(http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KBNA.gif)
I think you're your right about the temperature inversion aloft, Nashville.

I was just going to post that. We have a pretty darn good team of peoples here :)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Matt on February 28, 2009, 08:55:21 PM
At a friends house in Fairview...coming down good...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 08:55:53 PM
At a friends house in Fairview...coming down good...
Snow? How much?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: lyngo on February 28, 2009, 08:56:19 PM
I would think that warm column aloft should cool fairly quickly once the heavier precip gets going.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 08:57:26 PM
700mb on the Ruc deepens the closed 700mb low to 294

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_700_004m.gif)

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 08:57:55 PM
Snow? How much?

Means I should turn over very quickly here in bellevue. I will let you know when it does.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: lyngo on February 28, 2009, 08:58:31 PM
Man!  That batch of precip around Hickman & Dickson Co. looks almost stationary!  Someone's gonna get a nice thump of snow over there!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 08:59:59 PM
Lyngo that batch coming from the south is going to nail us.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 09:00:20 PM
Means I should turn over very quickly here in bellevue. I will let you know when it does.
Then I, what elevation do you sit at? That may make a difference.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 09:01:39 PM
Boy, it sure does seem to be taking a long time for the heavier stuff to sink down this way....wow. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 09:02:01 PM
I am sitting about 720ft.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 09:03:12 PM
guess no snow for knoxville lol. how do we miss out to the north south east AND west. ugh

Patience Grasshopper..
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 09:03:19 PM
I am sitting about 720ft.
Same. About 700ft here. About a mile behind me a ridge shoots up to about 1080ft. I would kill to be up there.  :) They stay about 1-2 cooler than I and probably 2-5 cooler than BNA.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: cliftown04 on February 28, 2009, 09:04:32 PM
33 and slushy wet snow in northern Wayne Co.  No accumulation yet.  Send it this way west TN.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Susan on February 28, 2009, 09:04:44 PM
it sleeted here briefly, then just cold and wet, more cold and wet

now ... snow just north of me (bellevue), snow to the south (columbia), snow to the east (dickson), and now servo reports snow to my west (murfreesboro)

<sigh>

 ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall::

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 09:05:03 PM
Good gosh a mighty joe friday its snowing in perry co. Mixed with a little sleet still but roofs and cars are already white.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 09:05:31 PM
Same. About 700ft here. About a mile behind me a ridge shoots up to about 1080ft. I would kill to be up there.  :) They stay about 1-2 cooler than I and probably 2-5 cooler than BNA.

Hey...we go from 1100 here at my home to 1800 in Monterey! :)...about 15 miles up the road...can see the ridge from my house!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 28, 2009, 09:05:47 PM
the snow i got that you missed was like a 2 incher. not a footer.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on February 28, 2009, 09:06:18 PM
Radar seems to be filling in nicely. Moderate sleet in Columbia. I am expecting  a changeover soon.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 09:06:28 PM
Got some sleet here now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 09:08:54 PM
Light sleet in Old Hickory. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Coach B on February 28, 2009, 09:09:12 PM
As of 9 pm snow now mixing in with the sleet and ground beginning to whiten.  Temp down to 34.3.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: msdawg911 on February 28, 2009, 09:09:46 PM
Oops!  ;D

Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
904 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE REGION AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

ARZ035-036-048-049-058-MSZ001-007-TNZ021-048>052-054-088>090-
011115-
/O.CON.KMEG.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090301T1200Z/
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DESOTO-TUNICA-
CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON-HENDERSON-
SHELBY-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
HELENA...SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...TUNICA...HUNTINGDON...
COVINGTON...JACKSON...LEXINGTON...BARTLETT.. .GERMANTOWN...
COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERV ILLE...BOLIVAR
904 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 2 TO 13 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
SHELBY...LAUDERDALE...TIPTON...HAYWOOD AND CROCKETT COUNTIES.
NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 09:12:30 PM
Hey...we go from 1100 here at my home to 1800 in Monterey! :)...about 15 miles up the road...can see the ridge from my house!
I think the highest point in Davidson County that is accessble buy car is the Vanderbilt Dyer Observation at 1165ft (highest point period is 1175ft). Its like living on the plateau in full view of the Nashville skyline.  The lowest point is Downtown Nashville at the Cumberland River which is 380 (roughly Memphis' elevation)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 09:12:50 PM
I'm at 900ft. Top of our hill is 950ft and the hill next to me is 1040ft. I just really hope the moisture starts come in my area. Sitting right at 33.3F
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 09:13:17 PM
I don't want to sound dumb but is this progressing any or is it just sitting and spinning stationary?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 09:15:27 PM
Nashville_WX, whats the latest BUFKIT for Nashville?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Beth on February 28, 2009, 09:16:02 PM
Every thing is covered up here in Dickson and its still coming down.  :)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 09:16:07 PM
BTW we just changed over to sleet and snow about 10 minutes ago. Sticking to roof pretty good considering it has been at freezing for at least 30 minutes. Currently 32.3
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 09:17:07 PM
Clay just walked in from outside and can confirm. We are only 10 miles apart or so. You around grannywhite?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Coach B on February 28, 2009, 09:17:38 PM
Interesting on the elevations.  My house sits partway up a hill at about 980.  The slope continues straight up out of the backard to just shy of 1200 on the ridge.  I've seen it white at the top and nothing at the bottom a few times.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 09:17:49 PM
Looks like the SREF isnt looking too encouraging for us here in Nashville.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 09:18:10 PM
I'm on Tyne not too far from Leland lane and Tyne intersection.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Coach B on February 28, 2009, 09:20:43 PM
Now all snow with big clumpy flakes and 34.0 as of 9:20pm. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Stevo on February 28, 2009, 09:23:58 PM
Bell Meade... No snow here.   ::shrug::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 09:25:44 PM
We have some sort of light but wet snow. A little slush on the glass table outside.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on February 28, 2009, 09:27:44 PM
Back to a heavy rain/sleet mix here ::)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 09:28:00 PM
0900 PM     HEAVY SNOW       5 E RIPLEY              35.75N 89.44W   
02/28/2009  E10.0 INCH       LAUDERDALE         TN   PUBLIC           
 
            DRIFTS EXCEEDING 1 FOOT. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 28, 2009, 09:28:35 PM
was they even predicting 10inches of snow in parts of west tn??
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 09:29:36 PM
FWIW the SREF is never right.  Also its nowcasting time.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Beth on February 28, 2009, 09:30:22 PM
It looks like the heavy band that was over us is moving toward Nashville(according to radar).  Its still snowing here pretty good but flakes are a little smaller.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 09:31:27 PM
Snowflakes starting to mix in.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 09:31:54 PM
was they even predicting 10inches of snow in parts of west tn??

uhhhh...no
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 09:33:47 PM
Looks like the SREF isnt looking too encouraging for us here in Nashville.  

SREF's been junk all day.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 28, 2009, 09:34:01 PM
uhgg..our local meter. said as of right now, 1inch in knoxville..are you kidding me? does anybody think knoxville will see more than 1inch?!?!?!?!?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 09:35:24 PM
0z puts Mid TN square in the game...

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_012m.gif)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on February 28, 2009, 09:37:01 PM
Heavy sleet/snow/light rain mix now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on February 28, 2009, 09:37:30 PM
AT  9  P.M.
STILL  SNOWING ! ::snowman::
SEVERAL  TREE  LIMBS AND BUSHES ARE  BEING  WEIGHED  DOWN  DUE TO THE  HEAVY SNOW  WE HAVE.
NOW  5  1/2  INCHES  HERE  AS  OF  9 P.M.
Temp :  30
Wind Chill :  19
Wind :  NW -  16  M.P.H.   
THIS  SNOW STORM HAS  OUTDONE  2008`S  MARCH  7 TH  SNOW STORM.
WHICH  WAS  5  INCHES.   ::flag::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Coach B on February 28, 2009, 09:38:51 PM
As of 9:30 pm ground now white and temp down to 32.5 with heavy snow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 09:40:05 PM
OK, I feel stupid for asking this...but, for the life of me, I can't really tell which way the precipitation is headed.  I know I should be shot, but the radar is playing mind games with me and you know I'm wanting it to sink south about 20 miles and park.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 28, 2009, 09:40:10 PM
Is it me or is it just ODD how my area here http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/

HAS NO advisory or NOTHING for knoxville, but you look west south north and east and you find all kids of things!! how manys inches for knoxville,tn does ppl think??
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alan14 on February 28, 2009, 09:40:37 PM
According to the 0z, sure looks a lot better for us here in eastern middle like Cookeville.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 28, 2009, 09:41:04 PM
uhgg..our local meter. said as of right now, 1inch in knoxville..are you kidding me? does anybody think knoxville will see more than 1inch?!?!?!?!?
i doubt we will get even an inch.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 09:41:23 PM
I've went from all snow to a mix. only the tops of cars are white. Temp refuses to go below 34 right now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: jerrygreen on February 28, 2009, 09:42:20 PM
Well I'm glad some folks have finally got snow this winter, still nothing but drizzle and 34.0 here in Readyville.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 09:43:40 PM
looking at the radar the precip in middle tennessee looks to be dwindling and i havent even got meself a flurrie yet.... : (

patience my boy!!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Yazoo63 on February 28, 2009, 09:44:07 PM
Quote
According to the 0z, sure looks a lot better for us here in eastern middle like Cookeville.

I'm not surprised.  The last 3 or 4 runs of the GFS have been trending towards throwing more moisture up into our area.  Looks like we may not get short-changed after all.   ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 09:44:21 PM
According to the 0z, sure looks a lot better for us here in eastern middle like Cookeville.

:-)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 09:44:39 PM
Quote
7:30 PM 0 in. Snow 2 SE Dickson Dickson, TN A DUSTING OF SNOW NOW OCCURRING ON EXPOSED SURFACES AT 107 SOUTH HUMINGBIRD LANE NEAR US HIGHWAY 70.
From: PUBLIC
9:12 PM 0 in. Snow Lawrenceburg Lawrence, TN *** 1 INJ *** REPORT RECEIVED OF TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW IN LAWRENCEBURG. ICY ROAD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY. WRECK REPORTED WITH INJURIES IN SUMMERTOWN. EXTENT OF INJURIES UNKNOWN.
From: PUBLIC
9:33 PM 0 in. Snow Spring Hill Maury, TN TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW REPORTED WITH A DUSTING ON THE GRASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL WAS MAKING DRIVING VISIBILITY POOR COUNTYWIDE.
From: TRAINED SPOTTER
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alan14 on February 28, 2009, 09:45:27 PM
Cookeville Weather Guy, what you think we will get over here in Putnam County?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 28, 2009, 09:46:32 PM
Cookeville Weather Guy, what you think we will get over here in Putnam County?

3 inches max
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 09:46:42 PM
Still sleeting pretty hard.  And its mainly sleet.  If it keeps sleeting like this we will be measuring the sleet instead of snow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 09:49:52 PM
Same here.  Heavy sleet falling. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 09:52:18 PM

I just sent in a report.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Yazoo63 on February 28, 2009, 09:52:31 PM
Quote
3 inches max

Maybe, just maybe,  Sparta will get a little more than Cookeville for a change    ::yum::

You'll probably get 3 inches and we'll get dryslotted down here, knowing my luck   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: jerrygreen on February 28, 2009, 09:52:41 PM
Nothing here now either temp dropped to 33.5 though.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dapig on February 28, 2009, 09:53:56 PM
Very heavy sleet falling in lebanon
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 09:54:19 PM
precipitation is coming up from the south. Should be heavy snow here in 30 minutes or so. Everyone stay patient.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: jgosney on February 28, 2009, 09:56:22 PM
Quote
9:33 PM 0 in. Snow Spring Hill Maury, TN TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW REPORTED WITH A DUSTING ON THE GRASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL WAS MAKING DRIVING VISIBILITY POOR COUNTYWIDE.
From: TRAINED SPOTTER


Here on the Williamson County side of Spring Hill, we have yet to receive any snow.   Some light sleet fell within the past hour but mostly it's just been fog.  I'm curious as to where this trained spotter on the Maury County side of town was located.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Coach B on February 28, 2009, 09:57:10 PM
The batch of snow south of Nashville along I-65 is putting it down pretty good.  I just measured exactly 1" in the backyard and its still coming down hard.  Thats an inch in right at an hour.  My elevation may be helping a little.  Temp down to 32.5
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dapig on February 28, 2009, 09:57:53 PM
Laguardo area
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 28, 2009, 09:58:22 PM
questionn..i know its totally random, but somehow most of u ppl know ur elevation at ur house lol..is there someway i can check mine??
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 09:58:36 PM
0945 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WILSON                  35.57N 90.04W   
02/28/2009  M12.0 INCH       MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER   
 
            SNOW DRIFTS GREATER THAN 18 INCHES 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on February 28, 2009, 10:00:20 PM
The batch of snow south of Nashville along I-65 is putting it down pretty good.  I just measured exactly 1" in the backyard and its still coming down hard.  Thats an inch in right at an hour.  My elevation may be helping a little.  Temp down to 32.5

Its refusing to put it down over here. But it is one heck of a batch of precip.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 10:00:39 PM
big  bolt of lighting and loud thunder now!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 10:00:43 PM
questionn..i know its totally random, but somehow most of u ppl know ur elevation at ur house lol..is there someway i can check mine??
Google Earth is the best way.

http://earth.google.com/ (http://earth.google.com/)

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 10:00:48 PM
Still getting heavey snow here.Trafic problems continue.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 10:01:09 PM
0945 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WILSON                  35.57N 90.04W   
02/28/2009  M12.0 INCH       MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER   
 
            SNOW DRIFTS GREATER THAN 18 INCHES 



 :o ::snowman:: ::panic:: ::ski:: ::snow::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Beth on February 28, 2009, 10:01:35 PM
We now have light snow and sleet mixing in again. Just looking at the radar I was wondering if this is going to go south and spin off another low that is going to go up to the Carolinas like they have been predicting?  My brother is mad cause he hasn't seen any thing in Northern Alabama yet.  Is what we are seeing now the ULL or is it going to spin off of this? ::)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 10:02:00 PM
questionn..i know its totally random, but somehow most of u ppl know ur elevation at ur house lol..is there someway i can check mine??

GPS. Google earth works good too.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: JayCee on February 28, 2009, 10:02:15 PM
   Well, I'm certainly not a professional meteorologist, but, is it me, or is the ull not diving as far south as forecast?  If I look at current radar trends, the heavier snow bands seem to be cutting straight across the state of Tennessee, instead of diving down into Alabama and Georgia as forecast.  I've also noticed something strange on the radar here in East Tn.  An area of light rain keeps streaming up from southwest to northeast across the area, as temps slowly fall.  It also seems to be slowly increasing as the night goes on.  
   These ull must be a major pain for meteorologists.  A slight shift in the path can cause a huge change in the forecast.  Also, the bands are somewhat like lake effect snow bands.  One area can get 10 inches of snow, and 20 miles away, only an inch falls.  

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 10:03:45 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/graphic/now/nowsmall.png)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 10:03:53 PM
Been a while since I have seen snow like this.Trees are totally covered in wet snow.Be some great pics in the am ::snowman::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 10:04:15 PM
Yep, could be similiar to the march storm last year.  Isloated spots got a foot and other places barely a dusting.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 10:04:50 PM
  Well, I'm certainly not a professional meteorologist, but, is it me, or is the ull not diving as far south as forecast?  If I look at current radar trends, the heavier snow bands seem to be cutting straight across the state of Tennessee, instead of diving down into Alabama and Georgia as forecast.  I've also noticed something strange on the radar here in East Tn.  An area of light rain keeps streaming up from southwest to northeast across the area, as temps slowly fall.  It also seems to be slowly increasing as the night goes on.  
   These ull must be a major pain for meteorologists.  A slight shift in the path can cause a huge change in the forecast.  Also, the bands are somewhat like lake effect snow bands.  One area can get 10 inches of snow, and 20 miles away, only an inch falls.  
Exactly, that is what happened last March. I got 4" of snow and BNA got about an inch. They missed the bands that passed over me 7 miles west.

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 10:06:28 PM
 Just got a call from lauderdale county power out in some areas.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 10:06:38 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/graphic/now/nowsmall.png)
Haha, looks like they drew that map up on the paint software that came with the computer!  ;D

Gets the job done though.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 10:07:30 PM
i am seriously begin to believe this could be the bigest snowfall for jackson if this continues, and it looks like it will
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on February 28, 2009, 10:08:38 PM
Finally all sleet and snow, light dusting here.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: JJJackson on February 28, 2009, 10:09:17 PM
Shelby County coming back under the gun. We've got about 4" here. I'm gonna guess we'll get 2 more .. maybe more depending how fast this thing rotates out.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 10:11:01 PM
jjj, man huge bolt of lighting and loud thunder, this thing is really cranking up now/ just sitting here spinning.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 28, 2009, 10:11:14 PM
Peope...PLEASE post what you think for Knoxville,TN.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 10:11:33 PM
Hey guts call me completely crazy if you will but have your ever heard of thunder sleet?? sounds crazy I know but here it is sleeting as hard as I have ever seen it sleet I was standing out side watching it and it started thundering. I have heard thunder snow plenty of times but this was a first
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 10:11:52 PM
Shelby County coming back under the gun. We've got about 4" here. I'm gonna guess we'll get 2 more .. maybe more depending how fast this thing rotates out.

WMC Channel 5 in Memphis just said up to one foot....could the Great I-40 Snow Drought come to an end for the Memphis metro tonight?  I'm gonna go with 6.5" here in Cordova, but ... ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 10:12:14 PM
0945 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WILSON                  35.57N 90.04W   
02/28/2009  M12.0 INCH       MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER   
 
            SNOW DRIFTS GREATER THAN 18 INCHES 


GOOD GRIEF!!!!   ::wow::

This thing's going into historic territory now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on February 28, 2009, 10:12:37 PM
no joke, lighting so bad and close i had to come in.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 10:13:36 PM
Yep, its crazy, and I can't even get an inch.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Scot on February 28, 2009, 10:13:44 PM
Heavy sleet mixed with snow here in Mt. Juliet.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 10:15:11 PM
yea its called a thunderstorm with hail... lol
It's called thundersnow hint, hint. When it falls you can bet you will be making a snowman. (I'm through now)  ;D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 10:17:21 PM
Hey guts call me completely crazy if you will but have your ever heard of thunder sleet?? sounds crazy I know but here it is sleeting as hard as I have ever seen it sleet I was standing out side watching it and it started thundering. I have heard thunder snow plenty of times but this was a first

No, you're not crazy.  Actually, I've heard the term "thundersleet" used before... thunder during a sleet storm.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 10:17:34 PM
Rain now. ::rofl::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 10:18:34 PM
Clay you ready for this band to move in. Im ready for the good stuff. Tho the band is not huge, it is moving slow and looks to be very heavy. 3" for BNA my guess.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Susan on February 28, 2009, 10:20:18 PM
report from cousin in Fayetteville ..... big beautiful flakes coming down now
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Susan on February 28, 2009, 10:21:12 PM
Yep, its crazy, and I can't even get an inch.

at this point i just want a flake
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bossfan2000 on February 28, 2009, 10:21:19 PM
I'm ready to see something here in Cane Ridge (Antioch)..we've been in dry spot all evening..i did just have 5 mins of light sleet..but thats been it so far. (i'm just 2 miles west of I-24 & Bell Rd).
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: JJJackson on February 28, 2009, 10:21:43 PM
You never can tell what the TV mets are really talking about b/c they don't go into a lot of detail, but ABC24 is calling for over a foot for widespread areas. Saying snowfall rates of 2" per hour will be widespread overnight.

Walden's exact quote was "we're entering historic territory."
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 10:22:15 PM
 Still snowing hard here.Wind blowing harder too!! Temp 31
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on February 28, 2009, 10:22:30 PM
AT  10  P.M.
STILL  SNOWING ::snowman::
8  1/2  INCHES  SO FAR  HERE.
SEVERAL  TREE  BRANCHES  ARE  BREAKING
AND FALLING DOWN AND SEVERAL BUSHES
ARE ALMOST FLAT  DUE THE THIS HEAVY SNOWSTORM.
TEMP :  29
WIND  CHILL :  19
WIND :  N - 15 M.P.H.   ::flag::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 10:22:50 PM
You never can tell what the TV mets are really talking about b/c they don't go into a lot of detail, but ABC24 is calling for over a foot for widespread areas. Saying snowfall rates of 2" per hour will be widespread overnight.

I just watched WMC, WREG, and ABC 24....all are aggressively calling for major accumulations of up to or even in excess of one foot.  I am having a difficult time fathoming that.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 10:23:10 PM
Clay you ready for this band to move in. Im ready for the good stuff. Tho the band is not huge, it is moving slow and looks to be very heavy. 3" for BNA my guess.
Yeah buddy! I already have moderate sleet and snow falling now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 10:23:42 PM
AT  10  P.M.
STILL  SNOWING ::snowman::
8  1/2  INCHES  SO FAR  HERE.
SEVERAL  TREE  BRANCHES  ARE  BREAKING
AND FALLING DOWN AND SEVERAL BUSHES
ARE ALMOST FLAT  DUE THE THIS HEAVY SNOWSTORM.
TEMP :  29
WIND  CHILL :  19
WIND :  N - 15 M.P.H.   ::flag::

Holy *expletive*!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: McKinley Fairbanks on February 28, 2009, 10:24:09 PM
I saw a dozen flakes here in SW Williamson County.  The deck is covered in ice and sleet pellets.  I guess you guys got the frosting on the cake! ::coffee::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 10:25:04 PM
Clay you ready for this band to move in. Im ready for the good stuff. Tho the band is not huge, it is moving slow and looks to be very heavy. 3" for BNA my guess.

News2 calling for a inch in Nashville. I think they are a bit conservative though. NWS still has me at 1-3". I just really hope I can get 2" before calling it a season.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 10:25:26 PM
I think I should of went back to jackson tonight!! It is still sleeting like crazy here, if it changes to snow and snows at this rate it will without a doubt be complete white out type conditions.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Jilly on February 28, 2009, 10:25:50 PM
about an inch so far. coming down quite a bit!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on February 28, 2009, 10:26:12 PM
Yeah buddy! I already have moderate sleet and snow falling now.

Count me in too.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 10:27:09 PM
Yep same here.  Saw some of the heaviest sleet ive seen.  Starting to get annoying.  Been sleeting for about 2 hours now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 28, 2009, 10:30:23 PM
knoxville is no longer in tennessee
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: cliftown04 on February 28, 2009, 10:31:51 PM
Trying to look at the radar I am a bit confused where all that prec near MEM and most of west TN is heading.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 10:32:05 PM
Moderate snow falling in Bellevue now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 10:32:33 PM
WOW!! It just happened just a minute ago we went from the heaviest sleet I've ever seen to the heaviest snow I've ever seen Huge flakes coming down like I've never seen before. Everything is covered already
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 10:32:46 PM
Well I've been doing my snow dance and thinking "cold" thoughts all night. Maybe this will please the snow gods and they will see fit to bless me with a couple of surprise inches. at my elevation (1000 ft) I am currently 3 degrees colder than the airport. That little tidbit right there could make all the difference in the world so long as this thing throws some moisture this way. It looks like its stalled or something at the moment. Congrats Jackson! ::snowman::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 10:33:03 PM
The batch of precip that is over us right now looks just as heavy as what is south of here.  Im not even worried about the moisture anymore Im just waiting for the changeover.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on February 28, 2009, 10:33:17 PM
Hate to be greedy, but I hope that heavy precip batch lingers around here for awhile
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 10:33:53 PM
Trying to look at the radar I am a bit confused where all that prec near MEM and most of west TN is heading.  

I was just discussing that with a family member who was asking the same question.  The precip is rotating around the low.  As the low moves closer, that's why the precip behaves like it does on radar.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 10:36:04 PM
Rain/Snow mix now...woo hoo..   ::whistling::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 10:36:17 PM
Band of snow suddenly and rapidly developing right over the Metro Nashville area, it appears... based on last few frames on GRLevel3 and my own observation here.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 10:37:30 PM
You getting snow yet TS?  Still sleet here.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 10:38:13 PM
You getting snow yet TS?  Still sleet here.

Yes... in Bellevue, coming down moderately... beginning to cover things.  There's a dusting on my car.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 10:39:32 PM
Based on radar... I would say the triangle between Columbia, Lewisburg, and Shelbyville is taking a pounding right now.


Whew.... fun times.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 10:39:47 PM
hi there gang...been away for awhile. approaching 7 inches and snowing heavily again. tree limbs are starting to hang awfully low. am wondering if this next band wont be the heaviest of the night. my bet is 9-10inches by morning.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 10:40:46 PM
16 inches being reported just north of Ripley TN...AMAZING stuff!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Conservative1 on February 28, 2009, 10:41:01 PM
im seriously getting tired of this stupid dry slot ive gotten nothing not even 1 flurrie and other places get 1foot of it...
Dude, calm down.  ::bangingheadintowall:: It's just weather. Either it'll snow here in Wilson County, or it won't. Complaining about it ain't gonna make a difference, and just takes up bandwidth that could be used for constructive posts, instead of negativity & whining.
 
 The WWA is in effect until 6am, IIRC. Go to bed, get up tomorrow, if the ground is white, it snowed. If it ain't, well... there's always next year.

Sorry, but the whining is tiresome.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 28, 2009, 10:41:14 PM
Did any of the models predict the heavy accumulations that have occurred in NE Ark and W TN? I dont remember any projecting this...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 10:43:23 PM
Sleet and Snow now.....and I can almost reach out and touch Shelbyville.....nearly.....   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: justinmundie on February 28, 2009, 10:43:48 PM
No they didn't.

And 16 inches? Is that from a trained spotter? That's insanity.

This might be the biggest snow in Memphis since what, 88? Maybe 85
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 10:44:29 PM
Dude, calm down.  ::bangingheadintowall:: It's just weather. Either it'll snow here in Wilson County, or it won't. Complaining about it ain't gonna make a difference, and just takes up bandwidth that could be used for constructive posts, instead of negativity & whining.
 
 The WWA is in effect until 6am, IIRC. Go to bed, get up tomorrow, if the ground is white, it snowed. If it ain't, well... there's always next year.

Sorry, but the whining is tiresome.


I wished you would post more often.... ::applause::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 10:44:38 PM
Did any of the models predict the heavy accumulations that have occurred in NE Ark and W TN? I dont remember any projecting this...

Nope not a one. This is the weird thing about these ULL's, especially this monster. Weird things can happen. I dont know if there has been some convection involved in those areas either. Models dont pick up well on the banded structures that deliver such a blow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 10:46:15 PM
16 inches being reported just north of Ripley TN...AMAZING stuff!

Wow.......................

I have to admit that I didn't quite see THIS coming.  I don't think anyone did.

Think there could be some isolated spots of 2 feet by morning?  Could that be that far out of the question?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 10:46:37 PM
Snow and sleet are really coming down good right now. I am currently in the process of uploading a video to youtube.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 10:47:49 PM
No they didn't.

And 16 inches? Is that from a trained spotter? That's insanity.

This might be the biggest snow in Memphis since what, 88? Maybe 85

Well the funny thing is KMEM probably has only reported three inches. The heavy band persisted much longer in the north metro, but especially from Covington to Jackson northward.

And actually need to correct myself..the 16 inch report is a little further west in the bootheel of MO:

Quote
1000 PM     SNOW             KENNETT                 36.24N 90.05W
02/28/2009  E16.0 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 10:48:28 PM
No they didn't.

And 16 inches? Is that from a trained spotter? That's insanity.

This might be the biggest snow in Memphis since what, 88? Maybe 85

If it gets recorded in the Memphis metro, it would be since way before then....16 inches, that is (if we're counting single storm totals)  '88 was roughly 11".  We have had large reports in the CWA, however, as recently as last year.  The Memphis-Jackson-Nashville corridor has been really burned badly for the past two decades overall.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on February 28, 2009, 10:49:30 PM
Heaviest snow Ive seen in awhile is flying. ::snowman::  Makes it better that its being amplifyed by the wind.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 10:50:22 PM
Finally seeing some snow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on February 28, 2009, 10:51:11 PM
Ive also noticed that the NWS has upped my accumulation amounts to 2-4 inches.  ;D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bossfan2000 on February 28, 2009, 10:53:32 PM
still in the dry slot here in SE Davidson..just some light sleet and flurries.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 10:56:17 PM
I won't be surprised if someone gets a foot between Columbia and Lewisburg.  The deformation band has set in there.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ultra mag on February 28, 2009, 10:57:26 PM
 Local police in laderdale county saying snow so deep its dragging the bottom of cars on the roads.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 10:58:28 PM
TS do you think the southern band will move north in this area. Precip moving up from south and down from north. If that area sits overall we could end up seeing much more than 1-2"
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 10:59:56 PM
Can one of the mods embed this for me?

Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:00:13 PM
Well, Smyrna Airport metar reads 34F and we have finally changed over to sleet...light to moderate.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 11:00:27 PM
TS do you think the southern band will move north in this area. Precip moving up from south and down from north. If that area sits overall we could end up seeing much more than 1-2"

I'm still waiting on the sleet to changeover to snow, I think temps are going to struggle to give us snow since we are so far from the ULL.  Also as the ULL goes further south will that not pull the precip shield south of Nashville?  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:01:39 PM
I'm still waiting on the sleet to changeover to snow, I think temps are going to struggle to give us snow since we are so far from the ULL.  Also as the ULL goes further south will that not pull the precip shield south of Nashville?  

I think precip is supposed to grow in coverage area...  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 28, 2009, 11:03:17 PM
knoxville anyone?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:03:41 PM
TS do you think the southern band will move north in this area. Precip moving up from south and down from north. If that area sits overall we could end up seeing much more than 1-2"

I've been deliberating on what that band south of us will do.  I think we're seeing the effect of the precip wrap back around the low pressure center.  And, it's making it difficult to pinpoint the direction any given area of precip is moving.  Another smaller band of deformation is forming from Nashville to the southwest, which is sort of merging with the southern band... somewhat of a convergence, it looks like.  We're probably going to see the movement of the precip continue to change as the center moves by to our southwest.

It's not too unlike the motion of precip around a hurricane.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 11:04:09 PM
I think precip is supposed to grow in coverage area...  ::shrug::

Yeah I dont see it growing too much...it is filling towards the east from Nashville to Cookeville.  These ULL are so weird.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:04:36 PM
And we are at 33F.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 11:04:56 PM
I think precip is supposed to grow in coverage area...  ::shrug::

beats me too Eric. I am praying this band to our south overcomes this crap and move into the metro area. SN could end here briefly or who know it could be over...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 11:05:03 PM
Just shot this in the last 5 minutes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8zhFNa-nIc
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:05:07 PM
Can one of the mods embed this for me?

Done... check your post.  All you have to do is put html tags around it.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Coach B on February 28, 2009, 11:05:49 PM
Just measured 2.25 inches on the snowboard and 3 inches easy in the yard.  Temp holding at 32.5 and still snowing heavily.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 11:06:02 PM
Moderate to heavier snow is now falling in Cordova.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 11:06:06 PM
Well just as it changed to snow.  Precip looks like its slipping to the south now and pulling out.    
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 11:06:28 PM
beats me too Eric. I am praying this band to our south overcomes this crap and move into the metro area. SN could end here briefly or who know it could be over...

What I wouldnt give to be in Jackson right now.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 11:07:22 PM
Just shot this in the last 5 minutes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8zhFNa-nIc


Care if I spread your video around?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 11:08:19 PM
Just shot this in the last 5 minutes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8zhFNa-nIc


You're killing me with that video.  Enjoy.  You guys in Memphis have suffered in the past but have done well the past few winters. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 28, 2009, 11:08:58 PM
It's really starting to come down again here in Cordova/Lakeland in eastern Shelby County. It let up for quite a while but it looks like we're under a heavy band again. Hopefully this will persist for a little while.

Looks like this thing is starting to spin up a little faster and may eject out in the next couple of hours. I wish this would sit over us in the metro area for a while the way it did up in Lauderdale/Tipton.

If it keeps this up we may get another couple of inches at least, on top of around 4 we had already. Even though it's dark outside, you could tell the snow had picked up because some of the houses across the street were far less visible, and the streets (which had melted to a good degree) were covered back up again very quickly. I hope this thing puts on the brakes for a while!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 11:09:59 PM
Heavy snow rapidly developing with visibility dropping to 1/4 mile and blowing snow. Roads instantly becoming snow covered...including Walnut Grove Road (which is right by the house). For those not in Memphis Walnut Grove is a major thoroughfare in the city.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dapig on February 28, 2009, 11:10:20 PM
hmmmm think i may have to load up in the truck and head west. Would like to see what more than a dusting f natural snow looks like.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:10:41 PM
OHX AFD:

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1009 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

.UPDATE...
A VERY INTERESTING EVENING. AS OF 10 AM...MULTIPLE REPORTS HAD BEEN
RECEIVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
ACROSS THE MID STATE. WE ARE STARTING TO GET IN INITIAL REPORTS OF
A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS FAR EAST AS CHEATHAM COUNTY...WITH SNOW
STICKING TO EXPOSED SURFACES. THE LATEST REPORT WAS THAT AN INCH OF
SNOW WAS REPORTED ON THE GROUND IN DICKSON. TEMPERATURES REMAINING
IN THE MID 30S. UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SE AR...AND WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL MS AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 12Z SUN.
OOZ OHX SOUNDING SHOWING PREVALENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH 750
MB WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE CURRENT ADVISORY IS STILL ON
TRACK AND WILL MAKE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ZONES.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 11:11:02 PM
Heavy snow rapidly developing with visibility dropping to 1/4 mile and blowing snow. Roads instantly becoming snow covered...including Walnut Grove Road (which is right by the house). For those not in Memphis Walnut Grove is a major thoroughfare in the city.

I live about half a mile from the AgriCenter/WFO myself.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Susan on February 28, 2009, 11:11:24 PM
take a look at the three hour loop on Unisys Water Vapor Map

while the low is moving SE the bulk of the moisture is just pivoting over NW TN, little movement in the last 4 hours
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 11:12:32 PM
Care if I spread your video around?

Sure thing....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 11:13:00 PM
OHX AFD:



As of 10 AM, eh?????

Nice video, C!!!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 11:13:07 PM
Here in Old Hickory we have finally changed over to all snow.  Deck has a dusting but not sticking to the grass yet...too wet.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:13:41 PM
I've had GR pulled up all night, but haven't switched to the Memphis radar till just now...there are actual storm tracks showing up through the frozen precip...that's flippin' awesome.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 11:14:04 PM
You're killing me with that video.  Enjoy.  You guys in Memphis have suffered in the past but have done well the past few winters. 

Well this is payback for missing Superstorm 93 altogether! Absolutely getting pummeled at the moment. Closing in on 8 inches and would bet this is easily 1-2 inches per hour.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2009, 11:14:32 PM
Well looks like I'm going to miss out on it.  Oh well,  I enjoyed my 30 min of snow and 2 hours of sleet.  Congrats west and southern tn.  Pretty cool that its shaping up to be a historic storm for those parts.  Like I said, someday we will see a decent snow in the Nashville area.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 11:14:49 PM

As of 10 AM, eh?????

Nice video, C!!!
Muchos gracias!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 11:15:15 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/graphic/now/nowsmall.png)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on February 28, 2009, 11:16:16 PM
wait, is this going to move further north and to the east? I mean its lowing down, this could change everything potentially?> 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 11:16:40 PM
 Unbelievable snow rates right now...has to be close to 2" per hour...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:16:54 PM
I wish now we would have gone to Jackson...dang meatloaf wasn't all that good... :'(

Ah well, congrats West TN.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:17:22 PM
Moderate snow continues to fall in Bellevue.  I estimate a quarter to half inch coating currently in grass and elevated surfaces.  Roads appear wet.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on February 28, 2009, 11:17:32 PM
Well finally have about an inch finally. Roads and sidewalks are covered
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:20:29 PM
Well looks like I'm going to miss out on it.  Oh well,  I enjoyed my 30 min of snow and 2 hours of sleet.  Congrats west and southern tn.  Pretty cool that its shaping up to be a historic storm for those parts.  Like I said, someday we will see a decent snow in the Nashville area.

Yeah... Nashville itself is right on the cutoff of getting a decent event.  Southern/southwestern outskirts of the city could end up with a nice little event... though I'm not sure yet.

But, north of the city, unless anything new develops, may not see much.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on February 28, 2009, 11:20:35 PM
this is pretty amazing. noone will answer knoxville questions...LOL...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 28, 2009, 11:21:18 PM
I just took a spin around the block to get a good feeling for how heavy this current band was (I live out in the county and there isn't a lot of street illumination, so it's hard to tell how much is coming down at night.)

I completely agree with you guys - easily an inch an hour at this rate if not more. Some of the drifts in front of my house on the sidewalk steps have completely filled in during the past 20 minutes. Bring it on! Could get up close to 7 or 8" in Lakeland if we keep this up.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 11:22:20 PM
Can confirm 2" per hour rates...1" in the last 30 minutes...4" total now...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on February 28, 2009, 11:22:24 PM
Precip looks to be falling apart north and northwest of Nashville.  I think Nashville is just about done...once the ULL goes a little farther south.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:23:59 PM
this is pretty amazing. noone will answer knoxville questions...LOL...

Information direct from the NWS web site...

For Knoxville: Less than an inch of accumulations.  Temps look too warm.  I think they had they had the low tonight at 36F.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mmcnulty on February 28, 2009, 11:25:33 PM
Its snowing like crazy here West of Franklin. It doesn't look like there is much movement on the radar. How long do you think it will snow tonight?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 11:25:53 PM
this is pretty amazing. noone will answer knoxville questions...LOL...

Quote
Overnight: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday: A chance of snow before 8am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Breezy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=mrx&map.x=157&map.y=153
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:26:29 PM
this is pretty amazing. noone will answer knoxville questions...LOL...

Quite honestly, compared to what's happening West TN, there's not much to talk about where Knoxville is concerned.  Be happy if you can get a coating of snow.  At least the forecast is showing that now.  Earlier, it was only showing rain.

But, this just isn't looking like a big event for Knoxville... sorry.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:27:08 PM
Looking at the latest radar trends..there looks to be a deformation zone setting up from Hickman Co, to Williamson Co, and bisecting the Davidson Co/Rutherford Co. lines.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:28:06 PM
Hey TS...you have SpotterNetwork on your GR?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:30:31 PM
Hey TS...you have SpotterNetwork on your GR?

Yes, I do... although, right now, I'm not seeing any spotter icons showing up.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:33:28 PM
I think we're going to see some amazing totals reported between Columbia and Lewisburg.  The banding has been persistent there for hours now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 11:33:59 PM
Quote
10:35 PM 1.3 in. Snow 2 S Dickson Dickson, TN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH FELL IN THE PAST HOUR. TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IS 1.3 INCHES. ALL ROADS IN DICKSON AREA ARE SLUSHY OR COVERED. SNOW IS CURRENTLY COMING DOWN AT A STEADY CLIP.
From: TRAINED SPOTTER
11:03 PM 2.2 in. Snow 10 S Chapel Hill Marshall, TN SNOW WAS MEASURED ON SNOWBOARD AT 2.25 INCHES IN TWO HOURS IN LEWISBURG.
From: PUBLIC
7:30 PM 0 in. Snow 2 SE Dickson Dickson, TN A DUSTING OF SNOW NOW OCCURRING ON EXPOSED SURFACES AT 107 SOUTH HUMINGBIRD LANE NEAR US HIGHWAY 70.
From: PUBLIC
9:12 PM 0 in. Snow Lawrenceburg Lawrence, TN *** 1 INJ *** REPORT RECEIVED OF TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW IN LAWRENCEBURG. ICY ROAD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY. WRECK REPORTED WITH INJURIES IN SUMMERTOWN. EXTENT OF INJURIES UNKNOWN.
From: PUBLIC
9:33 PM 1 in. Snow 2 S Dickson Dickson, TN MODERATE SNOW OVER THE LAST TWENTY MINUTES HAS RESULTED IN ONE INCH OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BEING REPORTED. ROADS WERE REPORTED AS BECOMING SLUSHY.
From: TRAINED SPOTTER
9:33 PM 0 in. Snow Spring Hill Maury, TN TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW REPORTED WITH A DUSTING ON THE GRASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL WAS MAKING DRIVING VISIBILITY POOR COUNTYWIDE.
From: TRAINED SPOTTER
10:35 PM 1.3 in. Snow 2 S Dickson Dickson, TN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH FELL IN THE PAST HOUR. TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IS 1.3 INCHES. ALL ROADS IN DICKSON AREA ARE SLUSHY OR COVERED. SNOW IS CURRENTLY COMING DOWN AT A STEADY CLIP.
From: TRAINED SPOTTER
11:03 PM 2.2 in. Snow 10 S Chapel Hill Marshall, TN SNOW WAS MEASURED ON SNOWBOARD AT 2.25 INCHES IN TWO HOURS IN LEWISBURG.
From: PUBLIC
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2009, 11:34:34 PM
I might have hallucinated this, but I thought I saw a lightning flash out of the corner of my here.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 11:35:05 PM
Right now snow is coming down moderately and the ground is coated. My main concern is how long the snow will last here.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 11:35:41 PM
Memphis weather can you give us some insight in the band to our south here in nashville. Will it eventually progress north a bit...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 11:36:48 PM
From the TDOT site:

Quote
COUNTYWIDE ROADWEATHER
Decatur County - extremely hazardous winter road conditions were reported on 2/28/2009 at 10:00 PM (Central Time Zone). Travel is not recommended on state routes and interstates in this county.

Patches of snow and ice are reported on roadways in 17 other West TN counties..
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:36:56 PM
Yes, I do... although, right now, I'm not seeing any spotter icons showing up.

In case you were wondering, I'm the little icon in Smyrna...just some info for those who didn't know.  I was looking at the latest water vapor loops, and it looks to me like the upper low is almost ready to start taking a more easterly movement.  When'if it does, it's gonna drag that whole precip shield across Mid TN.  Like you, I've got a gut feeling that someone just south of I-40, somewhere between Lewis, Williamson, Maury, and maybe Rutherford counties are gonna get blitzed.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: stan r on February 28, 2009, 11:39:08 PM
im in lawerenceburg...had some good snow for a little while that dusted the ground then havent saw a flake in about 2 hours..when will it hit?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:40:33 PM
In case you were wondering, I'm the little icon in Smyrna...just some info for those who didn't know.  I was looking at the latest water vapor loops, and it looks to me like the upper low is almost ready to start taking a more easterly movement.  When'if it does, it's gonna drag that whole precip shield across Mid TN.  Like you, I've got a gut feeling that someone just south of I-40, somewhere between Lewis, Williamson, Maury, and maybe Rutherford counties are gonna get blitzed.

I've noticed your icon before.  I'm on a different laptop from one I usually use during the day, and I may not actually have the placefile loaded here.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:40:44 PM
im in lawerenceburg...had some good snow for a little while that dusted the ground then havent saw a flake in about 2 hours..when will it hit?

Probably sometime later tonight as the low makes it's easterly swing.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 28, 2009, 11:43:36 PM
I might have hallucinated this, but I thought I saw a lightning flash out of the corner of my here.  

I wouldn't be at all surprised. I just went back outside and it's really coming down, but what was amazing to me was how much the wind had picked up under this band. I'm not nearly as well-versed with the science as most on here, but it's almost like these are convective bands of snow. It's simply amazing. Still near a 2" per hour clip.

This thing is an absolute whopper, and I'm really amazed at how it's maintained its strength for so long. It's a monster of a ULL.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:43:56 PM
Watching radar trends, I'm not optimistic that immediate Nashville and points north will see much more.  I believe we're seeing the precip respond to the low pressure center continuing further south.

Even the band that formed right over Nashville is slipping south.  Yet, there seems to be a slight twist in the precip pattern, causing a dryslot to move north into the Lewisburg area.

The evolution of the precip area around the ULL is interesting to watch if nothing else.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 11:44:18 PM
Keeping faith that things will fill in and as things move on we see it shift NW back to W.... So hard to say right now.... Snowline is right north of me right now...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 11:44:24 PM
I've got my digital camera in time lapse mode so it will record in fast motion over a longer period of time how the snow fell. Should make for an interesting video tomorrow.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 11:45:58 PM
I give up on snow in davidson county ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 11:46:38 PM
I don't know if its the wind making it look this impressive or what but its coming in sheets right now.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 11:47:04 PM
I give up on snow in davidson county ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall::
Why, it isn't over yet.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on February 28, 2009, 11:47:42 PM
About 1.5 inches in Columbia and counting. If this keeps up for about 2 more hours I may be edging on 4 inches.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:48:02 PM
Here is a GR look at the deformation zone to the south of BNA...

(http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj14/eric_in_smyrna/snow1.png)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:48:12 PM
We'll have to see new deformation banding set up either right over us or just north of us to have any chance of much more in immediate Nashville.  The existing precip looks like it's being influenced by the spinning ULL that's moving further southeast.  That's why the precip banding is now moving northeast to southwest over West TN now.  The center of the ULL looks like it may be over northern MS, based on how the precip is wrapping around.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 11:48:18 PM
Look at that area spinning up south of us, just east ofI-65. That looks to be spinning up and it looks like snow could fill back in from the NE. 20 miles north of I-40 might be done... Who knows....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 28, 2009, 11:49:36 PM
We'll have to see new deformation banding set up either right over us or just north of us.  The existing precip looks like it's being influenced by the spinning ULL that's moving further southeast.  That's why the precip banding is now moving northeast to southwest over West TN now.  The center of the ULL looks like it may be over northern MS, based on how the precip is wrapping around.

We might be lucky but will be on the northern edge TS..... 30 minutes from now we will know.... Late frame on radar seemed to make me a little more optimistic.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on February 28, 2009, 11:50:39 PM
Got a nice coating now...need to  ::sleeping::  but cannot make myself go to bed.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: bonzomemphis on February 28, 2009, 11:51:16 PM
I would not be at all surprised to see localized reports of up to 1.5-2 feet in the morning north of Memphis. If not official reports, there should easily be drifts in excess of 20-24 inches. There may be areas with that already. I have 6-7 inches and there was a 3+ hour lull here.

I lived in Birmingham during the Superstorm of 1993, and this is darn near the closest storm to that one I've ever seen in the Deep South. It's still not anywhere near the strength of that one (93 was a gulf system and just had unlimited moisture to work with - it was a totally different animal.) But I've rarely seen anything like this in some time. Heavy wind and near whiteout conditions at times in the past hour. I'm only in my mid-20s, so this one is a rarity for me.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 11:52:12 PM
More pics. The first was taken at 5pm this afternoon. The seocond was taken 5 mintues ago at 11:45pm.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on February 28, 2009, 11:52:35 PM
As of 11 P.M.
STILL  SNOWING ! ::snowman::
11 INCHES NOW. ::snowman::
THIS IS A { NEW RECORD AMOUNT}  FOR BOTH FEBRUARY 28 AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
old record : 10 inches on Feb. 14, 1988.
Several tree branches continue to break and fall on my back yard.
THIS HAS BECOME A MONSTER SNOWSTORM FOR MY BEMIS - JACKSON, TN AREA. ::flag::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:52:38 PM
Look at that area spinning up south of us, just east ofI-65. That looks to be spinning up and it looks like snow could fill back in from the NE. 20 miles north of I-40 might be done... Who knows....

Yeah, there is some kind of little twist in the precip pattern down around Lewisburg.  I'm not sure if that's the main "twist" or a new vortex developing in the overall system.  I think the main spin may still be further southwest of that.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on February 28, 2009, 11:52:46 PM
if this thing doesn't make a hard turn east soon, I might not even get rain from it. Looks like I will be in a dry slot. oh well, my temp is WAY to high for anything but rain. 41.7 and dropping very slowly.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on February 28, 2009, 11:53:54 PM
I might have hallucinated this, but I thought I saw a lightning flash out of the corner of my here.  

Dont think you hallucinated at all. Heard thunder a few minutes ago but never saw the lightning.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on February 28, 2009, 11:54:01 PM
As of 11 P.M.
STILL  SNOWING ! ::snowman::
11 INCHES NOW. ::snowman::


 ::wow:: ::wow:: ::wow::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: JJJackson on February 28, 2009, 11:54:32 PM
We've picked up another inch in the last 45 minutes. I don't know that I've seen snow this heavy in Memphis before.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on February 28, 2009, 11:55:04 PM
as it moves eastward how do you fellows think is will affect southern mid tn?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:57:40 PM
as it moves eastward how do you fellows think is will affect southern mid tn?

I think southern mid TN could see 3-6" before it's all said and done with.   


BTW, in Smyrna, we're currently undergoing the transition from sleet to snow...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 28, 2009, 11:57:46 PM
1130 PM     HEAVY SNOW       6 SE COVINGTON          35.51N 89.57W  
02/28/2009  E12.0 INCH       TIPTON             TN   PUBLIC            
  
            SNOW DRIFTS UP TO 20 INCHES.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on February 28, 2009, 11:58:34 PM
as it moves eastward how do you fellows think is will affect southern mid tn?
To state it lightly... you gonna do fine snowfall wise if you can accept the fact that you may not get 11 inches of snow like some people.  ;D
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: ChrisPC on February 28, 2009, 11:58:49 PM
I give up on snow in davidson county ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:

We just had a band come through Hermitage. It was a good dusting.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2009, 11:59:03 PM
1130 PM     HEAVY SNOW       6 SE COVINGTON          35.51N 89.57W  
02/28/2009  E12.0 INCH       TIPTON             TN   PUBLIC            
  
            SNOW DRIFTS UP TO 20 INCHES.  

Unbelievable.... ::wow:: ::wow::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Memphis Weather on March 01, 2009, 12:02:04 AM
5.2" total here now...
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on March 01, 2009, 12:02:56 AM
To state it lightly... you gonna do fine snowfall wise if you can accept the fact that you may not get 11 inches of snow like some people.  ;D
11 inches. . . LOL buddy I got about 2 now and I'm as happy as a kid on christmas my friends think I'm an idiot because I sit and look at models and radar and stand and watch it falling all the time. But it is awesome what people west of here have got so far congrats to them. I have a good friend sitting on some highway west of Jackson for the last hour I don't think he is lovin it like I am
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on March 01, 2009, 12:03:51 AM
I move we change the thread title. Maybe something like, Historic February 28th 2009 Snowstorm. I dunno, something of the sorts. Well it is March now, so.... This is a great way to end Meteorological 2008-2009 winter.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Susan on March 01, 2009, 12:07:08 AM
Just finished looking at lots of maps and i just don't think the low is going to head as far south as predicted.  Looks to me like it is heading more between Birmingham and Huntsville.

Wondering what the more knowledgable think??
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on March 01, 2009, 12:07:57 AM
I move we change the thread title. Maybe something like, Historic February 28th 2009 Snowstorm. I dunno, something of the sorts. Well it is March now, so.... This is a great way to end Meteorological 2008-2009 winter.

I think we should wait until it's over and then name it...Why kill a good thing?   ::evillaugh:: ::guitar::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2009, 12:08:21 AM
I just measured roughly 3/4 inch accumulation at my locale.

This will go down as yet another in an ever growing list of storms where some major, awe-inspiring snow totals are within short driving distance of Nashville, while we get... well.. little.  ;)

Congrats to the West Tennesseans who got something incredible tonight.  I'm still in shock reading some of those reported snow totals.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: jerrygreen on March 01, 2009, 12:09:43 AM
Been sleeting about an hour in Readyville, just now started changing to snow with very huge flakes and 31.5 degrees!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Coach B on March 01, 2009, 12:12:24 AM
I just measured roughly 3/4 inch accumulation at my locale.

This will go down as yet another in an ever growing list of storms where some major, awe-inspiring snow totals are within short driving distance of Nashville, while we get... well.. little.  ;)

T'snow you are going to hate me for this but I just measured between 5 and 6 inches in the backyard.   Its closely mowed dormant bermuda btw.  ;)  Measured 4.75 on the snowboard.  I think the smaller size of the flakes have surprized me by still laying down nearly 2" in the last hour.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Alex on March 01, 2009, 12:13:13 AM
Barely a dusting here. Bring on spring.  Looking forward to 60s next week.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2009, 12:14:34 AM
The wonders keep coming....

Quote
1052 PM     SNOW             MAURY CITY              35.82N 89.22W
02/28/2009  M18.5 INCH       CROCKETT           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW DRIFTS OF UP TO 18.5 INCHES.

Someone is closing in on that 2-foot mark.

And, I dare say, some locations could be in danger of seeing their all-time record highest snowfall fall tonight.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 01, 2009, 12:14:38 AM
I cannot take this.....
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on March 01, 2009, 12:15:53 AM
I think the smaller size of the flakes have surprized me by still laying down nearly 2" in the last hour.  

Same here, they are getting the job done.lol
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: servocrow on March 01, 2009, 12:16:45 AM
Those totals are amazing...I'm just happy at how hard the snow is falling here.  Haven't seen that in a very long time in my 9-yr TN residency (2nd stint, that is).
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on March 01, 2009, 12:17:11 AM
I cannot take this.....
How much snow do you have?
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 01, 2009, 12:17:36 AM
around 1" so far..
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2009, 12:19:02 AM
T'snow you are going to hate me for this but I just measured between 5 and 6 inches in the backyard.   Its closely mowed dormant bermuda btw.  ;)  Measured 4.75 on the snowboard.  I think the smaller size of the flakes have surprized me by still laying down nearly 2" in the last hour.  

Nah, Coach... I'm all growed up now.  No hate.  Congratulations!  :)

It wouldn't surprise me if some areas between you and Columbia have received 8 or 9 inches or more.  That heavy snow on radar has been very persistent for a while now.

There's a definite twist on radar in that area now... like a comma head.  I'm thinking this may be the top of the center of circulation.  It's been a sweet spot just northwest of there.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Eric on March 01, 2009, 12:19:57 AM
OK, ladies and gents...I'm hittin' the rack.  Good luck to everyone as I hope they get all the snow they care to get.  Night!   ::sleeping:: ::sleeping:: ::sleeping::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on March 01, 2009, 12:20:33 AM
around 1" so far..

Hah, just on the other side of Nashville I got about half an inch.  By the way...my first call was for 0-.5" for Nashville.  Looks like I hit square on the head unless a miracle happens.  
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on March 01, 2009, 12:20:43 AM

Congrats to the West Tennesseans who got something incredible tonight.  I'm still in shock reading some of those reported snow totals.

Let me tell you that Memphis had it coming. KMEM has been below normal on annual snowfall for 20...yes count them...20 years. I'm enjoying this immensely but better not have to wait another 20 for it. I will be old and gray by then.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: jerrygreen on March 01, 2009, 12:22:47 AM
I'm now getting flakes that are two inches across, the biggest I ever seen, the ground is white now!
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 01, 2009, 12:23:00 AM
Hah, just on the other side of Nashville I got about half an inch.  By the way...my first call was for 0-.5" for Nashville.  Looks like I hit square on the head unless a miracle happens.  

Well awesome call going with 0 -.5 . Glad that you went out on the limb there.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: snowdog on March 01, 2009, 12:26:15 AM
Well awesome call going with 0 -.5 . Glad that you went out on the limb there.

Here lately 0-.5" would cover just about every event over the last 5 years...at least here in my exact locale.  I know other spots around Nashville have done better at different times.  Its just odd how the Nashville area keeps finding way to miss out on the big ones.  It is gut wrenching to see a foot of snow just a couple hours drive to our west and a 6-8 incher just an hour to our south. 
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on March 01, 2009, 12:30:00 AM
Let me tell you that Memphis had it coming. KMEM has been below normal on annual snowfall for 20...yes count them...20 years. I'm enjoying this immensely but better not have to wait another 20 for it. I will be old and gray by then.
didn't yall get 7.2 last march? I thought the average annual was 5.4 for KMEM
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on March 01, 2009, 12:30:39 AM
It just hit me that this will probably be the last time we see snow for a long while.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on March 01, 2009, 12:31:22 AM
well back, been out playing and sleding, this is awsome. i measured on my picknick table exactly 12 inches, seems some drifting as much as 16 most i measured in my front yard.   got a question, do they ever put out a heavy snow warning ne more, beacuse i know about 2 hours ago it had to meet that criteria. it wuz snowing so hard it stung my face. still snowin as i speak but getting much lighter.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on March 01, 2009, 12:31:44 AM
Snow has eased up here for the moment. Hope its not already moveing out. Hopefully some of that around jackson and north of memphis will be durg across here
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 01, 2009, 12:32:36 AM
The boro has to be getting hammered.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on March 01, 2009, 12:34:45 AM
i am pretty curious about that question i asked. i am pretty weather intelligent, but wat ever happened to the heavy snow warnings, some of these bands were putting out 2 -3 inches rate n hour espcially when it wuz lightiing and thndering.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2009, 12:35:22 AM
well back, been out playing and sleding, this is awsome. i measured on my picknick table exactly 12 inches, seems some drifting as much as 16 most i measured in my front yard.   got a question, do they ever put out a heavy snow warning ne more, beacuse i know about 2 hours ago it had to meet that criteria. it wuz snowing so hard it stung my face. still snowin as i speak but getting much lighter.

Heavy Snow Warnings were discontinued as an issuance product.  Only Winter Storm Warnings are issued for heavy snow now.

I guess the NWS was trying to simplify things.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Cameron K. on March 01, 2009, 12:37:05 AM
Still need about another inch. Think it is still likely for the Thompson's station area to get about another inch. I do have about inch already though.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: shaq725 on March 01, 2009, 12:37:48 AM
2 1/4 inches now
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2009, 12:38:36 AM
i measured on my picknick table exactly 12 inches, seems some drifting as much as 16 most i measured in my front yard.  

By the way, I can't even imagine.  You've experienced something tonight that most Tennesseans never have... and possibly never will.

It's almost tempting to get in the car and start heading west on I-40 just to see what that looks like... if I wasn't sure the roads become impassible beyond a certain point.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on March 01, 2009, 12:41:02 AM
i can help u on some of that. my brother just had to pull his sister in law out of a big ditch. pretty rough n spots. but yeah come on over and enjoy the snow, but be carefully heading in, at least u can get some traction in snow, not like ice.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 01, 2009, 12:41:58 AM
TS If I had a truck right now we would ready to leave. Anyone feel like pulling a all nighter that has a SUV
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: WH Jason on March 01, 2009, 12:42:30 AM
Not even a single flake here in White House.  That's a wrap...lol.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Curt on March 01, 2009, 12:42:59 AM
didn't yall get 7.2 last march? I thought the average annual was 5.4 for KMEM

7.2 at NWS...5.2 officially at KMEM. So still below normal..until today. However KMEM will be on the low side since it wasnt under persistent heavy bands like areas to the N and NE
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on March 01, 2009, 12:43:55 AM
Last run of radar moved the def. band noticeably south.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on March 01, 2009, 12:46:42 AM
I'm actually gonna have to drive "up and out" of my parking spot tomorrow.  I might even have to put 'er in 4.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: BRUCE on March 01, 2009, 12:47:04 AM
yep, it seems pretty much to be over here too. as the last band moved to my south.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: dwagner88 on March 01, 2009, 12:48:04 AM
I would just love to see this thing dig in and shove eastward right about now. If it moved due east with just a slight southward jog, I would get clocked. thats a big if though . . .
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on March 01, 2009, 12:48:28 AM
I`m reporting differently than normal due to the Monster Snowstorm.
As of 12 A.M. : 12  1/2 Inches of Snow. ::snowman::
A { NEW RECORD AMOUNT FOR FEB  28 AND ALL OF FEB.}
SEVERAL TREE BRANCHES CONTINUE TO FALL ON TO MY YARD
I HAVE A MESS TO CLEAN UP TOMORROW.
MY BUSHES ARE FLAT. ::flag::
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Sbeagles on March 01, 2009, 12:50:28 AM
Snow has pretty much ceased here to. I don't know if anything west of here will stay far enough north to come across me or not.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Clay on March 01, 2009, 12:50:50 AM
I`m reporting differently than normal due to the Monster Snowstorm.
As of 12 A.M. : 12  1/2 Inches of Snow. ::snowman::
A { NEW RECORD AMOUNT FOR FEB  28 AND ALL OF FEB.}
SEVERAL TREE BRANCHES CONTINUE TO FALL ON TO MY YARD
I HAVE A MESS TO CLEAN UP TOMORROW.
MY BUSHES ARE FLAT. ::flag::

::applause::

Well I have .8" of snow. Will likely end up at or just below 1" for a total.
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: jerrygreen on March 01, 2009, 12:52:27 AM
Just changed back to heavy sleet, got one inch of snow in 40 minutes though. holding at 31.0
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on March 01, 2009, 12:55:51 AM

As of 12 A.M. : 12  1/2 Inches of Snow. ::snowman::

MY BUSHES ARE FLAT. ::flag::


From the lakes of Minnesota,
To the Drifts of Tennessee,
Across the tundra to Memphis,
From sea to shining sea,

Cause that flag still stands for freedom,
And "they" can't take that away
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2009, 01:01:44 AM
TS If I had a truck right now we would ready to leave. Anyone feel like pulling a all nighter that has a SUV

I traded in my Suzuki SUV for a hybrid Prius last year.  :P

Wasn't getting enough snow to justify the four wheel drive over going with 50 MPG gas mileage instead. 

I wouldn't trust my Prius in those road conditions.  ;)
Title: Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
Post by: mempho on March 01, 2009, 01:03:34 AM
I traded in my Suzuki SUV for a hybrid Prius last year.  :P

Wasn't getting enough snow to justify the four wheel drive over going with 50 MPG gas mileage instead. 

I wouldn't trust my Prius in those road conditions.  ;)

All these Tennesseans and none of you has a truck?  What's the world come to?
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Clay on March 01, 2009, 01:05:48 AM
Plow just drove by my house and plowed the 1" of snow/slush of the road. I chuckled.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2009, 01:07:53 AM
Okay... I just gave the thread a new cheesy, sensationalistic name.  Enjoy.

 ::flag:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: stan r on March 01, 2009, 01:12:06 AM
still wondering about how much we will recieve in lawerenceburg..
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Clay on March 01, 2009, 01:14:18 AM
still wondering about how much we will recieve in lawerenceburg..
For you all the snow is going to pick up soon and drop 1-3" of snow on top of whatever else you have.

BTW, for those that care, this is my 61st post since yesterday morning. Beat that!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2009, 01:14:30 AM
still wondering about how much we will recieve in lawerenceburg..

How much do you have now?

Looks like the heaviest snow has been hanging just north of you... but, it's probably going to swing through in the next couple of hours.

I could see you getting a couple of inches out of that... maybe 3 or 4 in some spots.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: stan r on March 01, 2009, 01:15:12 AM
we have a dusting...snowing light right now
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Cameron K. on March 01, 2009, 01:16:52 AM
Okay... I just gave the thread a new cheesy, sensationalistic name.  Enjoy.

 ::flag:: ::snowman::

There we go. I have about 2" here. How much more would you say for the Thompson's Station area TS? I'm thinking about another inch.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Sbeagles on March 01, 2009, 01:19:00 AM
For you all the snow is going to pick up soon and drop 1-3" of snow on top of whatever else you have.

BTW, for those that care, this is my 61st post since yesterday morning. Beat that!
Do you think maybe the same hold true for southern perry co. I got around 3 inches but wouldn't say no to another
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Clay on March 01, 2009, 01:22:34 AM
I'd give you another inch of snow. Snow is soon going to pick up briefly and then quickly turn to light snow. After that it will slowly decrease in activity before stopping eventually.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Susan on March 01, 2009, 01:25:41 AM
There we go. I have about 2" here. How much more would you say for the Thompson's Station area TS? I'm thinking about another inch.

Cameron, I think we are pretty much done.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Sbeagles on March 01, 2009, 01:26:56 AM
Maybe we can grab another inch but if not best of luck to the border states. And if it does snow in Alabama I hope its ORANGE. . . LOL. GO VOLS!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Scot on March 01, 2009, 01:31:30 AM
This is quite sad.......a dusting......that is it???  This really is not fair.  I mean what do I have to do to get a good snow?  How come we always miss it?  Perhaps there is some truth about this dome around Nashville!  Ridiculous!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Cameron K. on March 01, 2009, 01:32:24 AM
Cameron, I think we are pretty much done.

I check and see what the final outcome is. Doesnt look too bad right now.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 01, 2009, 01:32:52 AM
Well goodnight everyone...... I think I am going to take a step back from the weather and try to find something else that interests me....  I am sure I will be back for storm season but this has just really kicked me in the face.... 1" of snow here and we are now done. Congrats to everyone who had the chance to see and live through this major storm. It could be 50 year till something like this happens again. See you start of the storm season....Thanks everyone and it has been fun..
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Clay on March 01, 2009, 01:34:04 AM
This is quite sad.......a dusting......that is it???  This really is not fair.  I mean what do I have to do to get a good snow?  How come we always miss it?  Perhaps there is some truth about this dome around Nashville!  Ridiculous!
Yes, but this storm was an eye opener, IMO. It proves that if the Mississippi Delta can get over a foot of snow surely we can.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Sbeagles on March 01, 2009, 01:50:37 AM
I for one believe we are going into a period where events like this will be more common. I think we are starting to trend toward colder snowier winters. We got the cold part down this winter and knocked on snows door in the end and next winter were kicking it in. Im starting to believe my snow is over so I'm heading off to bed. To those in Memphis and west tn congrats on a historic event it's gotta be amazing. And to everyone on here since this will probably be our last winter event, it has been a blast and I have learned a ton from you guys who know worlds more about this than i do. Talk to all yall later. . . God Bless
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: shaq725 on March 01, 2009, 01:53:38 AM
Don't think this has been posted


Quote
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
118 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO SOUTH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 24...

.COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. 4 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN SOUTH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. ONE INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED IN NORTH MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

TNZ058-060>063-075-077>079-093>095-011500-
/O.UPG.KOHX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-090301T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.W.0001.090301T0718Z-090301T1500Z/
LEWIS-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-
GRUNDY-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
118 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HEAVY AT TIMES. MOST
LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...WITH TRAVEL
DISCOURAGED.

$$
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: shaq725 on March 01, 2009, 02:03:47 AM
With that my forecast has changed to 3-7 inches
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: kelmichelle on March 01, 2009, 02:24:34 AM
I am in Southern Rutherford County on the Bedford County line.  My husband just left for work.  We measured, and we have almost 5 inches.  It is still coming down hard!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Extremewxlover on March 01, 2009, 02:30:25 AM
How did y'all change the name of my Topic from UPCOMNING SNOWSTORM ON SATURDAY TO GREAT SNOWSTORM OF 09
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Mr. William E. Brantley on March 01, 2009, 02:51:46 AM
AS OF 12 A.M.
12  1/2  INCHES AT MY HOME!   ::snowman::
TREE BRANCHES ALL OVER MY SIDE YARD
WILL TRY TO CLEAN UP TOMORROW. ::flag::
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Alex on March 01, 2009, 03:09:32 AM
Nashvillewx, I didn't even get an inch.  In fact I got nothing.  Barely even snowed.  **** all I wanted was an inch. 

This storm rivals the 93 storm in spots.  Of course there are no 60 inch totals like parts of the smokies had.  But it certainly compares to what we saw in Knoxville.(1-2 feet)  I was young but still remember sledding in it.  Nashville missed out on that one too.  Maybe next time.  This will be the first winter that I have not seen measurable snow while living in TN.  Heck I even missed out on the March storm last year.  Barely saw 2 inches.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Extremewxlover on March 01, 2009, 03:22:48 AM
How and why did y'all change the name of my post from UPCOMING SATURDAY SNOWTORM to GREAT 2009 SNOWSTORM.
i though this was a diffrent post when i woke up at 2am.
i was shocked to see that there had been from 37 pages to 65, In just 5 hours
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Alex on March 01, 2009, 03:24:40 AM
I like to think that we will be trending towards snowier winters.  But then again it's hard to believe it.  This system we saw tonight may not happen again for a very long time.  I really do believe there is a snow bubble around Nashville.  I think it has something to do with how maybe we sit in kind of a no man's land when it comes to systems.  I know I sound dumb cause it has snowed here in the past.  But over the past 6 years it just seems like it has refused to, while west, south, north, and east of here have gotten good snows.  Lousiana and southern Texas have senn more snow than I have.  That says alot right there.  Tonight is the same ole story.  The average snowfall for Nashville use to be about a foot, now its only 8 inches.  Face it, it doesn't snow here anymore.  FL will be a signifcant snowfall before we will, book it.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on March 01, 2009, 03:49:45 AM
]
How and why did y'all change the name of my post from UPCOMING SATURDAY SNOWTORM to GREAT 2009 SNOWSTORM.
i though this was a diffrent post when i woke up at 2am.
i was shocked to see that there had been from 37 pages to 65, In just 5 hours

They often do that - it is not up coming anymore it is here :) I think it is so the archives reflect the hx if someone was to do a search???

I really would not be upset that they changed the name of the thread..

BTW - still snowing here
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Coach B on March 01, 2009, 04:40:37 AM
8.25" here at 4:15am.  It's still snowing and the lights flickered a while ago so I filled all the water containers I could find.  Hard to believe that my kids went to bed with nothing on the ground.  Just got lucky with the band setting up over us for most of the night.  As much as I'll enjoy it, I hate that its so localized.  I still hope for a widespread snow for everyone soon.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: stan r on March 01, 2009, 04:53:28 AM
close to 7 inches of snow down here in lawerenceburg..with about another 2-4 comin later
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Memphis Weather on March 01, 2009, 06:02:13 AM
7.0" final total here in East Memphis this morning...I imagine some of that has compacted so the actual final total might be a bit higher. At the NWS office a mile or two down the road they had 7.4"...

Will have pictures up later this morning...
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Storm Central on March 01, 2009, 06:12:14 AM
as usual East, TN will get ripped off lol  ::guitar::
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: servocrow on March 01, 2009, 06:33:51 AM
WOOT!!  Have to measure shortly...pictures coming...WOW!!!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2009, 07:28:28 AM
As amazing as the totals are from this storm, there were similar totals (greater that 12") just last March in isolated spots.  But, it seems that this storm system was even more generous with bringing heavy accumulations for a much wider area (though some of us still managed to miss out  ;) ).

Maybe, we're stepping back in the right direction like someone said.

One other thought about this... if anyone is doing a study of snowfall in Middle and West Tennessee, as far as how much we generally receive... Nashville is an utterly horrible representation of the rest of the state, as far as the data goes on the record books.  ;D

We're clearly an anomaly and a statistical outlier.

But, I know that the situation is even worse in places like Chattanooga, which has received about the least snow of anyone in recent years.

As far as snow goes, it's either feast or famine in Tennessee.

Congrats to everyone who received the huge accumulations with this memorable system.  ::applause::
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Coach B on March 01, 2009, 07:34:51 AM
Right at 9 inches.  Measured in several places, anywhere from 8.5 to 10 so I conservatively averaged it to 9.  Temp is 28.6 with just a few flakes still in the air.  Hit the jackpot for sure.    ::snowman::   ::snowman::

T'Snow you were right about that band of snow last night.  It only briefly lifted north of us for awhile sometime between 1 and 3am then pivoted back around and just now is dissapating to the south.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: BRUCE on March 01, 2009, 07:53:54 AM
got up early this mornng took several reading about 13 and half in my front yard with several 17 inch drifts. like  several profesional mets are saying, we are slowly heading back to the 60s type winters. its all about cycles, and its about time to cycle back to cold and big snows.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on March 01, 2009, 07:55:29 AM
Uhggg..Nothing at all but cold and windy here in Knoxville,tn. 34 degrees here..is there any hope at all??
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2009, 08:03:35 AM
Uhggg..Nothing at all but cold and windy here in Knoxville,tn. 34 degrees here..is there any hope at all??

I don't believe so.  Sorry.  But, you're not alone.

If it's any consolation, you were never really in the game on this one.  In some ways, it's a lot tougher to be very close to getting a good one and missing out (like we always do in Nashville) than to not really even be close to seeing anything to begin with.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Memphis Weather on March 01, 2009, 08:09:08 AM
I-40 between Memphis and Jackson especially near Brownsville shut down and is a parking lot...per WMC. Reports that cars have been stuck on I-40 since 6 last night!!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: BRUCE on March 01, 2009, 08:21:02 AM
just saw the same thing on wmc, thats amazing. people actually stranded since 6 last nite, wow!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Crockett on March 01, 2009, 08:23:35 AM
Wow. Some impressive snow totals with this storm, for sure.  ::applause::

I gotta point this out, though, for all of you who complain about the Plateau stealing the Tennessee snow: West TN has had 2 major winter storms since the Plateau has had a winter storm. :D
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Memphis Weather on March 01, 2009, 08:25:51 AM
 
0745 AM     SNOW             OAKLAND                 35.22N 89.51W   
03/01/2009  E17.0 INCH       FAYETTE            TN   PUBLIC     
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Curt on March 01, 2009, 08:26:31 AM
Gulp...

Quote
0745 AM     SNOW             OAKLAND                 35.22N 89.51W
03/01/2009  E17.0 INCH       FAYETTE            TN   PUBLIC



Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: BRUCE on March 01, 2009, 08:41:03 AM
just watching live chopper shots on wmc of i 40, all i can say is WOW, TRUCKS JACKEDKNIFED EVERYWHERE CARS OFF ROADS EVERYWHERE.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Susan in Macon on March 01, 2009, 08:42:32 AM
Ok this is just wrong!!!   Birmingham got snow and we didn't get a flake!!!! ::bangingheadintowall::  I was hoping to wake up at an inch at least and nothing at all in Lafayette.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 01, 2009, 08:54:36 AM
3-4 inches for me here in Cannon County. I'll take it but I'm still envious of those who got a foot.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: dwagner88 on March 01, 2009, 08:58:05 AM
I can equate our situation in Nashville and Chattanooga this winter to a favorite cartoon of mine:
(http://grafiqa.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/charlie_brown_lucy_football.jpg)
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: jerrygreen on March 01, 2009, 08:58:29 AM
I got 5 inches in western Cannon County.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on March 01, 2009, 09:06:58 AM
WELLL...It's been snowing and sleeting here in Knoxville for about 45minutes...but not really laying much at all..uhggg..it looks like to me the moisture in the north carolina moutains is giving east tn moisture??
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Beth on March 01, 2009, 09:31:03 AM
We got about a inch of ice and a inch of snow in Dickson. Sun is melting the roads pretty good right now.  Wasn't the storm of the year for us but at least it was a little any ways.  Ready for spring now!!! 8)
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: dwagner88 on March 01, 2009, 09:44:13 AM
just heard the accumulations stopped in Jasper, TN just 25 minutes to my west. This is probably the biggest weather disappointment for this area in the last 10 years. All around us is snow, and now its even moving into knoxville  :'( :'( :'(

ironically enough, I'm eating some nice crispy  ::bacon:: as I'm posting this.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Memphis Weather on March 01, 2009, 09:47:49 AM
 Latest AFD Update from Memphis...nothing to really note other than lowered forecast highs due to snow cover...just think its amazing to see this in a product as a reality in the South!

SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BUT WITH
ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND...TEMPERATURES
ARE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 20S. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Curt on March 01, 2009, 10:11:21 AM
Nice satellite shot showing snow cover in the Mid-South:


http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=LIT&isingle=single&itype=vis
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: ST1 on March 01, 2009, 10:26:54 AM
North East TN is getting screwed on this one. No snow whatsoever. Instead of the "Great Snowstorm of 09" it's the "Great Overcast Day of 09". ::shrug::
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Memphis Weather on March 01, 2009, 10:37:15 AM
Melting here now some...big chunk just fell off the roof...very audible from inside...

One thing is for sure...while I wouldn't be surprised if we lose greater than 50% of the snow cover Today...it shouldn't be nearly as much as the day after the event last year. Last year...after the 5-7"...we reached 41 that afternoon...and lost nearly all of the snowcover. We have gusting northerly winds Today up to 30 mph...that is coming off the even deeper snow cover to the North...that will keep things a good bit cooler. That is in comparison to a light WSW wind last year. We should get above freezing...maybe even as high as 36-37 if the March sun is really intense (I do think that is very much on the optimistic side though). Northern Shelby County near Curt and of course further north than that will keep a higher % of their snowcover I think...
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Coach B on March 01, 2009, 10:49:12 AM
Some beginning to come out of the trees here, but not much.  Temp is up to 32.2 in full sun.  I expect to lose quite a bit this afternoon, but the melting should help the playing.  To much snow for the sled and to powdery for much of a snowman, although that ought to be changing quickly with the sun.  We didn't even attempt the drive to church so we all got out in it for awhile.  My MIL said, "its just to much snow to do anything with except make snow-cream."  I think I'll take that problem any winter. 

I'm guessing the main roads should be clearing up this afternoon, but it may be another day or two on most of our rural roads.  Heard that 65 was shut down near the Giles/Marshall line for a time.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 01, 2009, 11:08:41 AM
Congrats everyone. I'm glad most everyone finally got a big snow. I'm happy, however, that I am no longer in that cold mess. Have fun with the snow.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: bigalpha on March 01, 2009, 11:13:05 AM
It's incredible the amount of variation that comes with these systems.  In Clarksville, we got just a dusting; in Dickson (only a few minute outside town) they got 1" of sleet and 1" of snow.

<-- totally jealous of you 7" people!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Alex on March 01, 2009, 11:14:13 AM
And if you thought it couldn't get any worse.(for those of you who saw nothing)  Atl is expected to get 3-6 inches.  So now add Birminghm and Atl to the cities who have seen more snow than me.  
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 01, 2009, 11:22:49 AM
Quote
All around us is snow, and now its even moving into knoxville

I feel your pain.  All we got here in White County was just enough to cover the grass.

I guess our 6 year long snow drought continues.  I just gotta keep telling myself  "maybe next year".   ::fingerscrossed::

But, if all i have to complain about in my life is not getting a few inches of snow, then i guess i'm doing okay.  ;D
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Alex on March 01, 2009, 11:24:44 AM
Look on the bright side, 70 degrees predicted next weekend. ::applause::
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 01, 2009, 11:37:42 AM

... another morsel from voodoo land ...

(http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu82/Yazoo63/Image1.jpg)
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: dwagner88 on March 01, 2009, 12:01:02 PM
... another morsel from voodoo land ...

(http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu82/Yazoo63/Image1.jpg)

with the low that far north, I bet that this either:
1. Disappears (most likely)
2. Becomes a severe weather threat (possible)
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: OakRidgeWinter on March 01, 2009, 12:13:35 PM
does ANYBODY think that in the picture, it looks like knoxville could get some??

(http://image.weather.com/images/maps/current/cur_ec_440x297.jpg)
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Clay on March 01, 2009, 12:16:48 PM
Look on the bright side, 70 degrees predicted next weekend. ::applause::
AMEN!!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Mr. Golf on March 01, 2009, 12:31:49 PM
with the low that far north, I bet that this either:
1. Disappears (most likely)
2. Becomes a severe weather threat (possible)

or,3.we get a  big snowstorm.They are all possible.Someone said that they read somewhere that this month could be memorable for winter weather in the southeast. ::pondering::
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Alex on March 01, 2009, 12:37:00 PM
Ill be in CO on a ski trip during that time.  It will snow, you watch.  I'll be coming back the next day and with my luck the airport will be shut or something.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Mr. Golf on March 01, 2009, 12:44:58 PM
Ill be in CO on a ski trip during that time.  It will snow, you watch.  I'll be coming back the next day and with my luck the airport will be shut or something.

I doubt that.Its in voo-doo land anyways,so dont hold ur breath ;D
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on March 01, 2009, 01:21:59 PM
i might have to head to the mountains in a few minutes...
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: ST1 on March 01, 2009, 01:35:55 PM
The most snow I've saw all day was a flurry. lol. So right now, I jealous of those who have a coating who are jealous of those who have seven inches who are jealous of those who have a foot.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Alex on March 01, 2009, 01:53:14 PM
Yea I saw some of the webcams near Gatlinburg.  Looks like its dumping.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: lyngo on March 01, 2009, 01:55:40 PM
Well, similar to last years March event, I got the short end of the stick.  Didn't even receive what I would call a dusting last night.  I kept watching radar and the moisture just could not make it into my area.  Oh well, maybe next year.....
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: dwagner88 on March 01, 2009, 02:21:55 PM
MRX definitely busted warm on temps here. Low was 33 this morning and it hasn't recovered much,  but it didn't matter because the precip was too far south and west. Six Flags was supposed to be open today for the first time. Bet that didn't happen. They look to be near 4 inches on that side of ATL
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Curt on March 01, 2009, 02:51:38 PM
Streets are pretty much in good shape. Melting is defintely taking place, but no grass is visible anywhere. Snowcover could make for a chilly night tonight with light north winds. I think the kids WILL be in school tomorrow barring any refreezing of wet streets. What a fun storm but amazing that KMEM once again was the underperfomer at 3 inches, even given the fact it didnt remain under heavy bands like some places north of Memphis did(ie Tipton, Haywood, Crockett Co.) KMEM will probably go down in the record books as another below normal year at 4 inches. And the saga continues....

I for one was already ready for warm weather and and most defintely ready now. Until next winter...no more fun and games for me please.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2009, 03:07:32 PM
with the low that far north, I bet that this either:
1. Disappears (most likely)
2. Becomes a severe weather threat (possible)

Or 3... the map at that range is deceptive since it shows the previous 12 hours of precipitation at the end of which, the 850MB isotherms are located as you see them.  ;)

In other words, most of the precip you see there actually moves out before the 850MBs become cold enough to support snow.

That's the risk of reading maps beyond 180 hours, and one thing you have to keep in mind.

But, you may be onto something with #2 as a possibility.  I would say severe weather is more likely there than wintry weather.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2009, 03:25:56 PM
One final comment... I'm reading a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth from those of us in northern Middle and also East TN who didn't get the snow we were hoping for.  ;)

But, see... this was pretty much expected to be the case.  The models had been saying for two or three days that West TN was going to have a much better chance than Middle or East TN.  For the Nashville area, this only looked like it was going to be 1-2 inches at best anyway. 

I measured an inch... so, I pretty much got exactly was I was forecast to get.  Would it had been nice to something much more?  You bet!  But, that wasn't in the cards this time.  So, I'm not particularly shocked or disappointed.

For those of you in East TN... I'm sorry, but you knew this never looked like a great potential for you... or at least you should have known.  The models painted that much fairly well.  And, that's what we had been saying for two days before the event.  There were only a couple of outliers thrown in along the way that some people may have jumped on that gave some possible hope.

West TN was shown to be in a better position on the models... and we knew it.

We just didn't know how much better they were going to turn out to be when old man winter unleashed his wrath.  ;D

If this was a bust, it was a bust in their favor big time, since none of the models showed just how much of an incredible event this was going to be.  This also turned out to be much more than anyone could have dreamed in southern Middle TN.  And, that was an unforeseen bonus in all this.  But, that's what ULLs do.

Anyway, these things are difficult, and in my opinion, even fun to watch and forecast.  It's a roll of the dice with these kinds of systems.

Congratulations to the big winners on this event.  For the rest, just count your blessings and enjoy life.  It's just weather.  ::flag::
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Coach B on March 01, 2009, 03:26:23 PM
Snowpack holding strong in the yard, but down from 9 to 5 inches.  Not bad considering settling, full sun, and a temp of 38.  Getting pretty slushy and thin in the driveway, bet thats icy in the morning.  No way we go to school tomorrow.  ::applause::
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: servocrow on March 01, 2009, 03:29:33 PM
VERY nicely said, TS!!!!

Quote
Whether the weather is cold
or whether the weather is hot
We'll weather the weather
WHATEVER the weather
WHETHER we like it or NOT!

---Maurice Sendak, Little Bear
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: servocrow on March 01, 2009, 03:30:48 PM
Snowpack holding strong in the yard, but down from 9 to 5 inches.  Not bad considering settling, full sun, and a temp of 38.  Getting pretty slushy and thin in the driveway, bet thats icy in the morning.  No way we go to school tomorrow.  ::applause::

You are correct, Marshall County has already announced.  :D
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on March 01, 2009, 03:45:07 PM
just drove through the mountains up to cades cove. it was absolutely dumping down snow and was on the roads. Probably 3 inches in the cove and 5-8 on the mountain tops.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on March 01, 2009, 04:19:17 PM
just drove through the mountains up to cades cove. it was absolutely dumping down snow and was on the roads. Probably 3 inches in the cove and 5-8 on the mountain tops.

Very nice!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 01, 2009, 04:32:02 PM
One final comment... I'm reading a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth from those of us in northern Middle and also East TN who didn't get the snow we were hoping for.  ;)

But, see... this was pretty much expected to be the case.  The models had been saying for two or three days that West TN was going to have a much better chance than Middle or East TN.  For the Nashville area, this only looked like it was going to be 1-2 inches at best anyway. 

I measured an inch... so, I pretty much got exactly was I was forecast to get.  Would it had been nice to something much more?  You bet!  But, that wasn't in the cards this time.  So, I'm not particularly shocked or disappointed.

For those of you in East TN... I'm sorry, but you knew this never looked like a great potential for you... or at least you should have known.  The models painted that much fairly well.  And, that's what we had been saying for two days before the event.  There were only a couple of outliers thrown in along the way that some people may have jumped on that gave some possible hope.

West TN was shown to be in a better position on the models... and we knew it.

We just didn't know how much better they were going to turn out to be when old man winter unleashed his wrath.  ;D

If this was a bust, it was a bust in their favor big time, since none of the models showed just how much of an incredible event this was going to be.  This also turned out to be much more than anyone could have dreamed in southern Middle TN.  And, that was an unforeseen bonus in all this.  But, that's what ULLs do.

Anyway, these things are difficult, and in my opinion, even fun to watch and forecast.  It's a roll of the dice with these kinds of systems.

Congratulations to the big winners on this event.  For the rest, just count your blessings and enjoy life.  It's just weather.  ::flag::


Well put...... Tho it does not make me feel any better. ::shrug:: The Nashville Metro area has taken a serious serious beating. I honestly think it has become one of the worse areas to be in this region. The cutoff line of these major events over the last 6 years have been somewhat amazing. Metro Nashville has not see more than a couple inch's here and there since 03. The localized events throughout the state however have been pretty good over the years. Needless to say, next year will be full of these threats again and I am trying to think how I can even get excited anymore. Skiing and Training out west since I was 4-20 years old every winter. Working now in the family business has left me with the responsibilities of life and work and to be away from what I loved most is pretty hard. I have fun posting with everyone and I am sure I will be joining you for the spring season. As for the winter season , I have spent enough time and it's time to move on. Bring on Spring!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on March 01, 2009, 04:35:02 PM
One final comment... I'm reading a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth from those of us in northern Middle and also East TN who didn't get the snow we were hoping for.  ;)

But, see... this was pretty much expected to be the case.  The models had been saying for two or three days that West TN was going to have a much better chance than Middle or East TN.  For the Nashville area, this only looked like it was going to be 1-2 inches at best anyway. 

I measured an inch... so, I pretty much got exactly was I was forecast to get.  Would it had been nice to something much more?  You bet!  But, that wasn't in the cards this time.  So, I'm not particularly shocked or disappointed.

For those of you in East TN... I'm sorry, but you knew this never looked like a great potential for you... or at least you should have known.  The models painted that much fairly well.  And, that's what we had been saying for two days before the event.  There were only a couple of outliers thrown in along the way that some people may have jumped on that gave some possible hope.

West TN was shown to be in a better position on the models... and we knew it.

We just didn't know how much better they were going to turn out to be when old man winter unleashed his wrath.  ;D

If this was a bust, it was a bust in their favor big time, since none of the models showed just how much of an incredible event this was going to be.  This also turned out to be much more than anyone could have dreamed in southern Middle TN.  And, that was an unforeseen bonus in all this.  But, that's what ULLs do.

Anyway, these things are difficult, and in my opinion, even fun to watch and forecast.  It's a roll of the dice with these kinds of systems.

Congratulations to the big winners on this event.  For the rest, just count your blessings and enjoy life.  It's just weather.  ::flag::


::applause::...couldn't have said it any better myself!  We got pretty much what was expected up here in Cookeville!


Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: lyngo on March 01, 2009, 05:47:55 PM

Well put...... Tho it does not make me feel any better. ::shrug:: The Nashville Metro area has taken a serious serious beating. I honestly think it has become one of the worse areas to be in this region. The cutoff line of these major events over the last 6 years have been somewhat amazing. Metro Nashville has not see more than a couple inch's here and there since 03. The localized events throughout the state however have been pretty good over the years. Needless to say, next year will be full of these threats again and I am trying to think how I can even get excited anymore. Skiing and Training out west since I was 4-20 years old every winter. Working now in the family business has left me with the responsibilities of life and work and to be away from what I loved most is pretty hard. I have fun posting with everyone and I am sure I will be joining you for the spring season. As for the winter season , I have spent enough time and it's time to move on. Bring on Spring!

I know how you feel.  I've seen a total of 2" of snow in the last 2 years.  I figure the law of averages will play out in my favor sooner than later.  I guess that's why I love snow so much.  Living around here, you're never guaranteed to get much of anything so any snow we see is still a big novelty.  With that being said, I'll put this winter in the rear view mirror and take my chances in 2009-2010!   ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Storm Central on March 01, 2009, 06:12:19 PM
yeah i know i wont complain because i didnt see a flake :(
but what just makes me sad is that no more than 5 counties west
they got 3-10 inches of snow :( Grundy, Coffee Etc...

oh well lets move on to SVR WX Season  ::twister:: im so ready!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: dwagner88 on March 01, 2009, 06:16:16 PM
oh it definitely wasn't a bust. I never said it was. The low took pretty much the exact track it should have. The disappointing aspect is seeing all the snow taking a huge u-turn around this area. It seems like it happens at least once a year down here now. If this had been a gulf low, taking that track would have walloped east tn with snow. it was the perfect low track through GA and SC for that. too bad it was just a ULL.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Sbeagles on March 01, 2009, 06:55:06 PM
Wow talking about what a difference a mile can make I wound up with 3 1/2 or 4 inches of snow five miles south of where I live they had nearly 8 inches of snow. And just a few minutes ago I get back to Jackson and WOW all I could think was I wish i could of seen the looks on these peoples faces as this started to really pile up. People got dumped on all around me but man it was fun watching this thing unfold and watching the snow come down last night. I can honestly say that was the heaviest sleet/snow I have ever seen in my life falling.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Charles Loring on March 01, 2009, 07:01:15 PM
 ::rofl:: Look what I missed when I was gone! I was dissapointed this morning when my mom called me and said we didn't see anything at home and it looks like I missed my snow in Gatlinburg too. It started snowing in Gatlinburg when we started to leave at around noon today and I guess it accumulated some their. I was however excited to hear about 20" snow drifts in TN! That gets me excited that no matter what the whole winter may be like...we can still get New England snow totals somewhere in Tennessee! ;D
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: ST1 on March 01, 2009, 07:35:07 PM
To be honest, I didn't even know it was supposed to snow ANYWHERE until today. That doesn't make me any happier though.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Curt on March 01, 2009, 11:06:07 PM
One final comment... I'm reading a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth from those of us in northern Middle and also East TN who didn't get the snow we were hoping for.  ;)

But, see... this was pretty much expected to be the case.  The models had been saying for two or three days that West TN was going to have a much better chance than Middle or East TN.  For the Nashville area, this only looked like it was going to be 1-2 inches at best anyway. 

I measured an inch... so, I pretty much got exactly was I was forecast to get.  Would it had been nice to something much more?  You bet!  But, that wasn't in the cards this time.  So, I'm not particularly shocked or disappointed.

For those of you in East TN... I'm sorry, but you knew this never looked like a great potential for you... or at least you should have known.  The models painted that much fairly well.  And, that's what we had been saying for two days before the event.  There were only a couple of outliers thrown in along the way that some people may have jumped on that gave some possible hope.

West TN was shown to be in a better position on the models... and we knew it.

We just didn't know how much better they were going to turn out to be when old man winter unleashed his wrath.  ;D

If this was a bust, it was a bust in their favor big time, since none of the models showed just how much of an incredible event this was going to be.  This also turned out to be much more than anyone could have dreamed in southern Middle TN.  And, that was an unforeseen bonus in all this.  But, that's what ULLs do.

Anyway, these things are difficult, and in my opinion, even fun to watch and forecast.  It's a roll of the dice with these kinds of systems.

Congratulations to the big winners on this event.  For the rest, just count your blessings and enjoy life.  It's just weather.  ::flag::

As others said, well put TS. I cannot tell you how many timesI have watched as events have passed me by for years, until about 2004. While parts of Middle and East TN were getting hit with Blizzard of '93, I watched as I received nada. While Nashville got 8 inches in Jan '03, I watched it rain here. I watched Little Rock get slammed twice with 8-12 inches of snow in Jan '95 and '00, while the cutoff line came 20 miles to the south in Desoto Co. MS in '95, and only got 3 inches in '00. While places in Fayette County, less than 20 miles from me 8 inches in Feb '04, once again I got nothing. Even yesterday, places expected to get snow in Northen MS watched all day as the deformation zone set up and stalled in W TN, to only receive a trace. (The poor people near KMEM only got 3 inches).The plateau and smokies gets upslope snow while W TN sit high and dry.

Bottom line- we all miss some events big and small. Tennessee is too wide a state for all to receive an event unless it just works out perfect in an east to west fashion. Honestly, as frustrating as it is because I love winter weather, I now love to watch my friends on this board get snow and wintery weather, even if I dont. Part of it is just growing up and knowing that there are more important things in life as well as enjoying watching friends have good fortune. Its a principle that goes WAAAY beyond weather, and applies to the deeper things in life. God is God with or without snow, or money, or whatever it is that we think we need.

We will all get chances for snow again each winter. Griping doesnt help, in fact its annoying. My hope is next year, for all of the state to get in on the action. We are way overdue another Jan '88 soon so keep those fingers crossed and send up your prayers early!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Crockett on March 02, 2009, 07:01:41 AM
Couldn't agree more. I've never understood the griping or being miserably disappointed because it doesn't snow (or storm, or whatever).

I am very guilty of griping when the weather interferes with events I have planned, however.  ;D
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Cameron K. on March 02, 2009, 09:14:17 AM
Yes. I think somebodies bound to be disapointed. I mean we are a very long state.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Heath22 on March 02, 2009, 09:34:04 AM
No complaints here, got 5 inchs at ny house.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Bobcat on March 02, 2009, 12:47:09 PM
Hmmmm...I've got some pics of the 10" of snow we got here in south Jackson.  Not sure if it's a good idea to show them if people are going to get upset about it.  I see it this way.  For the first time ever, my two boys got to build a snowman that was taller than they were.  That makes me happier than you can imagine.  Who knows when West TN will see another snow like this? 
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2009, 12:49:04 PM
Hmmmm...I've got some pics of the 10" of snow we got here in south Jackson.  Not sure if it's a good idea to show them if people are going to get upset about it.  I see it this way.  For the first time ever, my two boys got to build a snowman that was taller than they were.  That makes me happier than you can imagine.  Who knows when West TN will see another snow like this? 

Post away, Bobcat.  If folks can't handle the truth...well too frickin' bad.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: maryvillereb2003 on March 02, 2009, 02:06:40 PM
Hmmmm...I've got some pics of the 10" of snow we got here in south Jackson.  Not sure if it's a good idea to show them if people are going to get upset about it.  I see it this way.  For the first time ever, my two boys got to build a snowman that was taller than they were.  That makes me happier than you can imagine.  Who knows when West TN will see another snow like this? 
i would love to see the pics!
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: ST1 on March 02, 2009, 02:49:29 PM
I'm not upset about it. In fact, I'd like to see your pics! I didn't mean to sound off like I did, I had an incredibly bad weekend that had absolutely nothing to do with the weather. But, I'm over it and moving on! From  ::bangingheadintowall:: to  ;D lol.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 02, 2009, 03:59:44 PM
Interesting AFD this afternoon with respect to the effects of snow on the ground...

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 PM CST MON MAR 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S SOUTH AND PLATEAU TO
THE MID 30S NORTH
. OF INTERESTING NOTE...SNOW PACK IS SHOWING UP
NICELY ACROSS SOUTH MIDDLE TN. IN FACT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
QUICK AFTERNOON UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE SNOW PACK AREA.

Southern Middle TN is colder than northern Middle TN today because of the snow on the ground.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Extremewxlover on March 02, 2009, 04:38:12 PM
all snowfall totals ince storm begun
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/topstories/todayinweather.html
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Coach B on March 03, 2009, 10:02:17 AM
Wow!  My kids are sledding for the third day in a row.  That's impressive for March.  Some of the backroads with shade are still very icy with frozen slush in the shady areas.  Snowpack is still a sold 4-5 inches average with some areas having a lot more and a few bare spots here and there.  Not much melting yesterday.  I can't help but wonder how long this would have hung around in late January.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Extremewxlover on March 03, 2009, 05:21:30 PM
whre do you live at, sir who has snow at his house
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2009, 08:53:51 PM
whre do you live at, sir who has snow at his house

He's in Marshall County near Lewisburg, which is down I-65, about 50 miles south of Nashville.
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Curt on March 07, 2009, 03:28:46 AM
Finally posted my vid's on youtube. These will give you a quick snow fix until next winter. Enjoy and here's to a cold, snowy, winter '09-'10!

Still shots: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m20Rc51VPoM

Vid #1- Early in the game: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhXZc0XlwhM&feature=channel_page

Vid #2- Heavy Snow at night: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8zhFNa-nIc&feature=channel_page

Vid #3- My dog Otis the morning after: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPeAZmQVaAI&feature=channel_page

Vid #4- More scenes in my neighborhood: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeP62P8bOwY&feature=channel

Vid #5- My cuz in Midtown Memphis asked me to post his drive aroud his neighborhood with some great shots of heavy snow: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYFSWw-cotU&feature=channel_page

WREG Channel 3 Local Coverage: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gs28XUt6umc&feature=channel_page

TWC Coverage: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ftF8RvoP-Y&feature=channel

TWC Local Forecast and Radar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fv2-_JrKuKM&feature=channel_page
Title: Re: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 07, 2009, 08:04:05 AM
Nice!  I had forgotten what that much snow looks like (actually, I've probably never seen that much snow here).

At least, we know it's still possible for places in Tennessee it get snows like that.