Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => TNWx Vault of Fame and Infamy => Topic started by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2008, 06:03:15 AM

Title: March Snow 2008 (March 7-8 Snow Discussion)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2008, 06:03:15 AM
In addition to the system early in the week, the NWS is now mentioning the system late in the week (which was on the 0Z GFS last night).

Nashville AFD:

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...A REALLY NICE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS MID TN WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND. ENJOY IT BECAUSE VERY UNSETTLED
WX IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS
LATE WEEK.


AT 08Z...A COLD FRONT HAD JUST ABOUT MOVED THROUGH OUR ENTIRE
AREA...AND ALL THE SHOWERS HAD ENDED. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WAS
ALONG A LAFAYETTE TO NASHVILLE TO LINDEN LINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUTTA HERE BY DAYTIME. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER MID TN TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY ON SUNDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
MONDAY ND TUESDAY. MONDAY MAY START OFF DRY AND MILD...BUT
APPROACH OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS BY
MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH
WARM AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP UPPER LOW WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
WITH HIGH POPS AND POSSIBLY STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING...SO A RAPID
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. OF COURSE...DETAILS
ARE IN QUESTION LIKE EXACT TRACK OF LOW. REASONABLE FORECASTS
COULD RANGE FROM TRACE SNOW SHOWERS TO SEVERAL INCHES. FOR NOW WE
WILL STICK WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY.

WX SETTLES DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING
A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE AROUND THURSDAY. AS IF EARLY WEEK SYSTEM IS NOT
ENOUGH TO DEAL WITH...GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WITH
BIG SNOW POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LATE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION
. THIS
SOLUTION IS IN DOUBT AND WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE MANY TIMES...SO FOR NOW
WE WILL FORECAST ABOUT 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

And, the beat rolls on...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Conservative1 on March 01, 2008, 06:33:45 AM
In addition to the system early in the week, the NWS is now mentioning the system late in the week (which was on the 0Z GFS last night).

Nashville AFD:

And, the beat rolls on...

 ;D ;D

 I got my snow shovel ready. The tractor is freshly greased and rarin' to plow. The cars are stocked, and the 1960's model Radio Flyer sled is tightened up and ready to go. My two year old daughter's snowsuit is hanging by the door, and my gloves are on the table.

Fire it up!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 01, 2008, 07:25:01 AM
Let her rip....My boys have snow boots that I had my parents "BUY BIG" for them a couple of years ago for Christimas--THEY ARE PRACTICALLY IN NEW CONDITION!!

This will be the last year they can squeeze their feet in them ;D

TS, you back home yet????

We're saving "THE BIG ONE" for ya... :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 01, 2008, 07:35:46 AM
I can defiantly deal with another mess.. :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 01, 2008, 09:17:55 AM
3-1 0Z Euro says no storm late next week. Winter weather may be pretty much over for us after Tuesday.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: ams30721us on March 01, 2008, 09:32:30 AM
???? hmmm 3-1 0z Euro shows a less broad surface low but does show a disturbance in the flow in the southeast just not as developed as the GFS....when the tuesday system showed up on the GFS the 00Z Euro from that day didnt show it either...they didnt agree till the next day on the 12Z runs....then the Euro was the colder model.....just bc one run doesnt show the same solution doesnt mean there will be no storm and to say that Winter Weather may be pretty much over after tuesday now that we are entering into this PATTERN of waves and troughs because of a run of the Euro model is not very wise but just my opinion....
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 01, 2008, 09:38:34 AM
WELCOME ams30721us!!!!!!  I cannot read model runs well, but have learned not to live and die by each run..

Enjoy the forum!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 01, 2008, 09:41:08 AM
AMS,

Thanks for being a voice of reason. Some of the noobs here live and die by each model run, and its frustrating for someone to cancel march because of one run of the euro.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: ams30721us on March 01, 2008, 09:44:03 AM
thanks for the welcome everyone...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 01, 2008, 10:55:01 AM
???? hmmm 3-1 0z Euro shows a less broad surface low but does show a disturbance in the flow in the southeast just not as developed as the GFS....when the tuesday system showed up on the GFS the 00Z Euro from that day didnt show it either...they didnt agree till the next day on the 12Z runs....then the Euro was the colder model.....just bc one run doesnt show the same solution doesnt mean there will be no storm and to say that Winter Weather may be pretty much over after tuesday now that we are entering into this PATTERN of waves and troughs because of a run of the Euro model is not very wise but just my opinion....

Welcome to the board. I welcome critical reviews of my opinions especially when I learn something from them. I claim no expertise and my thoughts are not meant to be a written in stone forecast. I agree that trends in the models are way more important than a single model run. IMO the Euro is much better than the GFS beyond 5 days and I put more stock in it than the GFS. The 0Z Euro run is ugly out to 10 days after Wednesday. That being said, the Euro is not a perfect model.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 01, 2008, 02:02:17 PM
Yup I am about sick of hearing this winter sucks, winter is over, after this this there is no more snow.  Come april say that all u want.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 01, 2008, 02:08:44 PM
Come April yes, then say it. There is plenty of time for some good ol' March snow. AND think about this. If we all lived in the land of predictable snow we'd be in constant complaint of the hassle it causes. I don't wanna go to work in it. So I prefer living here where we have pretty nice weather a lot of the time and the thrill of a possible snow event. The fun is in the anticipation and the snow day when it does happen. If it happened all the time where would the fun be?!
  Yes once a year would be good but getting mad about the WEATHER that we cannot control is pointless. Hold on to the hope people!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 01, 2008, 04:10:49 PM
With all due respect Nashville_Wx this winter has sucked.  We have had what 1 to 2" total this year?  Sure we have a shot at a big event in the next week...but since Meteorological Spring starts today we can wrap up Winter 2008 and throw it in the garbage where it belongs.  It wouldnt take much for Spring 2008 to out do Winter 2008. 
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 01, 2008, 05:21:42 PM
Prescription of Chill Pills to All! Take once daily with food. Preferably Bacon.  ;)  :D

Ya'll Chill Out. It will snow or it won't. Only the good Lord knows. :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 01, 2008, 05:23:28 PM
Prescription of Chill Pills to All! Take once daily with food. Preferably Bacon.  ;)  :D

Ya'll Chill Out. It will snow or it won't. Only the good Lord knows. :)

Preach IT!!! ;D

(http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y182/ServoBabe/happybacon-1.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 01, 2008, 05:57:24 PM
It's still possible that the progged precip in the Gulf at the end of the week could shift north and give us an overrunning event around Saturday.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2008, 06:27:40 PM
TS, you back home yet????

Occasionally.  ;)

Yes, I'm back from Orlando (got back Thursday night).  But, today, I went up to Knoxville for a friend's wedding.  But, I just got home (it was an 11:00 AM wedding ).

Tomorrow, I'm supposed to go up to Macon County to help with tornado cleanup again.

At least I'll be around here this week for whatever in the world is going to happen, weatherwise ('cause I sure have no idea).  ???
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 01, 2008, 10:31:44 PM
0Z GFS showing a suppressed system for this period (hugging the Gulf and Southeast Coast).

I know, I know... northwest trend might give us a chance.

Same song, next verse.  ::)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 01, 2008, 11:27:08 PM
3-2 0Z GFS does look substantially more promising. The precip now extends to the TN border. If we get a decent NW shift we could be in business. However, the last overrunning event we saw, although a different setup, stayed suppressed. To my eye the model looks like it is trying to give us a Miller A storm. It will be interesting to see what the 0Z Euro shows because the last run had the precip way way south.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 02, 2008, 12:12:14 AM
Just give us SOMETHING  and SOON!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: toastido on March 02, 2008, 12:41:00 AM
After the flogging I gave myself on this 3/5 events obvious outcome, I'm afraid to even get excited over 3/7 - even though my local forecast office has even mentioned snow this far out.. 

THIS EVENT NEEDS MOAR BACON!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2008, 01:12:50 AM
After the flogging I gave myself on this 3/5 events obvious outcome, I'm afraid to even get excited over 3/7 - even though my local forecast office has even mentioned snow this far out.. 

THIS EVENT NEEDS MOAR BACON!

Wonder if we can get Oscar Meyer to advertise on the forum?  Advertising $ and a seemingly endless supply of pork belly!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 02, 2008, 12:06:08 PM
0Z GFS showing a suppressed system for this period (hugging the Gulf and Southeast Coast).

I know, I know... northwest trend might give us a chance.

Same song, next verse.  ::)

The last few runs of the GFS seem to be picking up more and more on something going down in our neck of the woods on Thursday.  But, i'm sure it's just more of the same teasing from the longer-range GFS.  We went down this road a couple of days ago.  It'll keep showing promising signs until a couple of days prior to the even before we get the rug pulled out from under us.

Why do the snow gods taunt us so ???
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 02, 2008, 12:08:33 PM
Fool me once, shame on you.

Fool me 3,928,391 times, shame on me.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 02, 2008, 12:43:16 PM
GOOD ONE JJJ!! I hear ya loud and clear!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2008, 01:02:03 PM
I scoff at another "winter storm".  I'm O-fficially tossin in the towel.  Until I see 2 inches of snow ON THE GROUND, I will NOT recognize it as snow.  It's white rain as far as I'm concerned.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: shaq725 on March 02, 2008, 01:36:52 PM
Although I wish we could see a winter storm. I think its over till hopefully next winter...... On goes the snow drought of Tennessee.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 02, 2008, 01:37:44 PM
3-2 12Z GFS and Euro both show the precip well south of us.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 02, 2008, 03:45:01 PM
3-2 12Z GFS and Euro both show the precip well south of us.

For Thursday night? What is all that precip i see on the GFS thursday evening and overnight? :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 02, 2008, 10:21:21 PM
This is a good sign to see the Gfs bring back this storm. Looks like some cold air pouring into the region after the great storm we are going to get :)


(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_096m.gif)

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_102m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 02, 2008, 10:27:24 PM
You can keep it.  By Thursday, the low or whatever it is will be to our northwest.  Just the trend of the seasons.  If it's still in play, I'll be the first to say I was wrong.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 02, 2008, 11:02:15 PM
Are people getting frustrated yet?? :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: toastido on March 02, 2008, 11:04:12 PM
WINTER CANCEL

 :D ;D :D ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 02, 2008, 11:04:35 PM
For Thursday night? What is all that precip i see on the GFS thursday evening and overnight? :)

I assume you are referring to the new beastie spun up by the GFS. This is not the same overrunning event the GFS was hinting at earlier but the 2 entities do interact with each other. This definitely bears watching.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 02, 2008, 11:07:21 PM
I assume you are referring to the new beastie spun up by the GFS. This is not the same overrunning event the GFS was hinting at earlier but the 2 entities do interact with each other. This definitely bears watching.

I agree. Looks like a low pressure forming along the arctic cold front. Models consistent(cough, cough) on this feature. Sucks its 3 -4 days out. Dare I even look at the BUFKIT?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 02, 2008, 11:10:00 PM
I agree. Looks like a low pressure forming along the arctic cold front. Models consistent(cough, cough) on this feature. Sucks its 3 -4 days out. Dare I even look at the BUFKIT?

Of course I did. Ladies and Gents...here is our next snowstorm.(crossing fingers...not holding breath)

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=TN&stn=KMEM&model=gfs&time=2008030300&field=prec
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 12:49:49 AM
00Z Euro, everyone get down and worship it!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 12:53:33 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030221/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f087.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 06:15:30 AM
00Z Euro, everyone get down and worship it!
wow.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 03, 2008, 06:19:45 AM
Wow is right.  I think the man's LOSING it!  :o  ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 06:26:46 AM
I don't blame him. In a snow drought we all get a bit loopy!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 03, 2008, 08:02:51 AM
I say the Winter Weather forum gets locked for the season!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2008, 08:14:25 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030221/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f087.gif)

That's fine and dandy for the MEG area.  I see nada for us.  Looks like it's taking the usual northwest trend.  Stick a fork in it, its toast.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 03, 2008, 09:31:10 AM
Both the 3-3 0Z Euro and 6Z GFS show a low coming out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and tracking along the east coast next weekend....Miller A??? The GFS shows a smaller precip event extending along the approaching cold front which to my eye looks like it is trying to phase with this low. This smaller event is less impressive on the Euro but present in a more muted form. At the present time the Euro keeps the moisture from the Gulf east of us but there is plenty of time for this to shift west. If the track of the low does shift west we could get bombed.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2008, 09:43:10 AM
Both the 3-3 0Z Euro and 6Z GFS show a low coming out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and tracking along the east coast next weekend....Miller A??? The GFS shows a smaller precip event extending along the approaching cold front which to my eye looks like it is trying to phase with this low. This smaller event is less impressive on the Euro but present in a more muted form. At the present time the Euro keeps the moisture from the Gulf east of us but there is plenty of time for this to shift west. If the track of the low does shift west we could get bombed.

No offense to you, Wood or to Nashville_wx, but I'm not holding my breath.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 10:30:13 AM
No one should hold their breath. We are not alone in the snow drought. The Midwest has done awesome this year and thats about it
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 03, 2008, 02:14:45 PM
No one should hold their breath. We are not alone in the snow drought. The Midwest has done awesome this year and thats about it

It's not just the Midwest.  Snowfall records have been crushed in the Northeast this winter as well.

If guess the moral of this story is ... if you want it to snow where you live on a regular basis, then you need to live in a region where the climate is conducive for that to happen.  Unfortunately, Tennessee just 'aint it.

We'll get our share of snow.  We just have to wait longer for it.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 03, 2008, 02:25:59 PM
I'd like to see the Euro surface maps between 96 & 120.  Looks like it's getting close to a decent track for our neck of the woods but I can't tell what's going on between those hours.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 03, 2008, 02:35:29 PM
Canadian model showing a little mischef for Fri nite Saturday....


(http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/f120.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 03, 2008, 03:10:08 PM
18Z NAM looks interesting on day4...although it can be unreliable at this point. It is certainly trying to activate the souther stram jet over a cold air mass with precip showing up in central and southern arkansas. 12z NAM was dry as a bone thus a major change on this run.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 03, 2008, 03:23:53 PM
(http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/iws6_430.jpg)

wow looks like ill be getting snow :)
east tennessee babby :0)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 03:24:12 PM
Coastal area of NE have not. VT surely has tho as well as some interior places and normal LES band areas.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 03:24:57 PM
(http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/iws6_430.jpg)

wow looks like ill be getting snow :)
east tennessee babby :0)


I would rather be in west TN. Thnigs have not changed.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 03, 2008, 03:29:56 PM

I would rather be in west TN. Thnigs have not changed.

I love that Accu just skips over WTN altogether on this map
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2008, 03:47:18 PM

I would rather be in west TN. Thnigs have not changed.

I wouldn't trust this anymore than I can throw it, which isn't far.  There is no way that this particular low will suddenly escape from the throes of the evil Southeast Ridge and ride the mountains northeast.  Nope, no way in Hades.  Remember, this is coming from Hackuweather, a land far away where everything is model driven and can virtually change with each model run.  Still not gonna hold my breath.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 03, 2008, 04:06:22 PM
Here's relevant bits of OHX AFD - interesting how they threw the long term CPC forecasts in:

Quote
FXUS64 KOHX 032142
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
342 PM CST MON MAR 3

A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT AND THU AM
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE DAYTIME AND MIXED OR FROZEN
PRECIP AT NIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRI NIGHT BRINGING
MORE COLD AIR TO THE AREA WITH THE MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ON THE MENU.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS COOPERATING IN THE WED TO MON TIME FRAME
WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SUCCESSION OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT
PUSHING COLD AIR AT THE MIDSTATE. THUS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT CPC PROGS SHOW TEMPS
RETURNING TO NORMAL WITH THE ONE MONTH AND 3 MONTH PROGS INDICATING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 03, 2008, 04:09:43 PM
I guess this means no May snow.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 03, 2008, 04:10:03 PM
I guess this means no May snow.

;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 03, 2008, 04:11:22 PM
3-3 12Z Euro is a step in the right direction. It shows a Miller A with the low shifted more to the west compared to the 0Z run. In fact it now shows some snow in TN I believe. On the other hand the 12Z GFS shows the low much farther east than on the Euro with an unfavorable track.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: toastido on March 03, 2008, 04:30:22 PM
If only something like this would happen the week ending 3/14.. I'll be close to center hill lake chiling at a lake house... would be PERFECT to wake up to snow on the shore..
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 06:10:05 PM
Gfs ensembles member think otherwise than the OP run. Good thing is if we need a NW trend its gona come. Fri-Saturday timeframe something could happen. We will just have to watch.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 06:17:30 PM
On to this weekends system.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030315/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f084.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 07:29:39 PM
I want to know what the models record for predicting heavy snow events in the medium range is that pan out. Humm... I'm thinking about 0-for-100
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 03, 2008, 07:37:54 PM
I love the gradient towards nashville. I'm hoping that's just because the snow isn't there by hour 84... regardless, looks like Ryan would be happy if this verified.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 09:19:25 PM
Are you kidding me? I can't believe no one has even noted the snow that is one the NAM for the 7th.
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_084m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 03, 2008, 09:21:45 PM
OH YEAH DEFIANTLY HAPPY!! Only if I could believe computer models.. :(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 09:25:52 PM
Yeah, well it is at least worth noting.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 03, 2008, 09:31:32 PM
The NAM is horrible inside 24 hours, not to mention the long range.

Wait til Thursday before we start thinking about the friday event.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 09:48:31 PM
Yep, would be cool to see it pan out plus see the pine trees of South Arkansas coated with 3 or 4 inches of snow though
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 09:58:37 PM
00Z GFS is gona be a good run :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 10:02:37 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_084m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 10:03:57 PM
Haha, the 0z is coming in line w/ the NAM at 72 Hours. Wow, I can't say I'm surprised. Crack model. lol
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_072m.gif (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_072m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 10:05:31 PM
Bueno!
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06090.gif (http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06090.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2008, 10:06:46 PM
The NAM is horrible inside 24 hours, not to mention the long range.

Wait til Thursday before we start thinking about the friday event.

I say wait until Friday.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 03, 2008, 10:11:10 PM
00Z GFS is gona be a good run :)

The snow gods will taunt us again with yet another series of promising models.  They are setting us up again like bowling pins , ready to knock us down a couple of days before the "event".

Oh ... why do they taunt us so ???  They are evil ... EVIL i say !!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 03, 2008, 10:19:34 PM
00Z GFS is gona be a good run :)

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/javaanim.pl?id=NAM/Eta&mdl=grads/nam&file=panel9&nplts=29&width=800&height=700

The snow gods laugh hysterically at their model mischief !!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 03, 2008, 10:20:22 PM
3-4 0Z GFS gives Nashville about 4 inches of snow Friday although surface temps are borderline at first. It shifts the low coming out of the Gulf significantly to the west compared to 12Z and 18Z runs. If it doesn't overshoot us with the western trend we are in business. Nice to actually see the models get better for us as the event gets closer as opposed to worse.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 10:24:11 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_090m.gif)

Good stuff for sure. Good placement of high pressure.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 10:24:33 PM
00Z GFS is gona be a good run :)
Your positive attitude paid off (for this run)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 10:26:35 PM
I can't wait to see what the foreign models say. Is it just me or does the 0z run of models always seem snowy?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 03, 2008, 10:42:12 PM
Whoa nellie...0z GFS is the best snow run I've seen all year in Memphis
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 03, 2008, 10:52:44 PM
Best I can tell the 0Z GGEM is on the snow train.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 03, 2008, 10:53:48 PM
Check out the system coming onshore from the GoA in that run! WOW!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 10:54:53 PM
I know 972mb Ron! Wonder what the EPO is forecast to do.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 03, 2008, 10:58:00 PM
WOW!! THATS INSANE.. Thats what I said about this one too overhead.. And its crap.. :(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: toastido on March 03, 2008, 10:58:51 PM
WOW!! THATS INSANE.. Thats what I said about this one too overhead.. And its crap.. :(

SHH!

Also, don't you guys remember? I cancelled winter already. :P
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 10:59:58 PM
Models are starting to come together on this one.

(http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg)
(http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_108.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2008, 11:00:38 PM
SHH!

Also, don't you guys remember? I cancelled winter already. :P

Well, in that case, we're gonna get dumped on!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 03, 2008, 11:03:12 PM
"models are coming together again"

Been there before. It often doesn't end well.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 03, 2008, 11:03:20 PM
Well, in that case, we're gonna get dumped on!

I'm keeping my sophomoric humor to myself on that one! ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 03, 2008, 11:05:19 PM
"models are coming together again"

Been there before. It often doesn't end well.

I think we're all feeling a bit burned by how us Tennesseans have been treated by the models this winter. I'm fairly certain that at this point all mets in TN are gunshy on forecasting ANY snow for us until within 24-48 hours...

Of course our opportunities are really dwindling. The next couple of weeks is all that is left.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 03, 2008, 11:06:16 PM
I'm keeping my sophomoric humor to myself on that one! ;D

LMFAO!!!  Touche'   ;D ;D :P 8) ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 03, 2008, 11:13:58 PM
Is it just me Ron, or are models getting worse? And does climate change (man made or otherwise) have anything to do with it?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 11:43:00 PM
I think we're all feeling a bit burned by how us Tennesseans have been treated by the models this winter. I'm fairly certain that at this point all mets in TN are gunshy on forecasting ANY snow for us until within 24-48 hours...

Of course our opportunities are really dwindling. The next couple of weeks is all that is left.
I'd say a few weeks at most. Models after this week look pretty warm. Henry Margusity over at Accuweather thinks after this week we are going to be done with arctic air
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 11:44:05 PM
Wow SREF give it to us.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030321/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f075.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030321/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f078.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030321/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f081.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030321/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f084.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 11:44:42 PM
GFS=Guessing Forecast System
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 03, 2008, 11:49:18 PM
This may not be the most reputable model but add the 18z DGEX to the list of snowy solutions.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html (http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 03, 2008, 11:54:04 PM
Its all funny how we can bash models but things are now within 100hours. NAM and GFS both picking up big on a winter event here. SREF is also on board with its members. Lets see what the Euro has to say. 00Z Bufkit shows BNA with about 1/2" of snow/sleet ending with light ZR. The big event is Friday Morning where heavy snow sets up. Starting 6am Friday morning till 6pm we see about 3.5" of snow @ 10:1. Given 850temps will get down to -15C during good moisture available Iwill tend to yield much higher ratios.  Using zone omega which is going to hit this better most likely we see 7" of snow. We then see another 1" of snow or so drop early saturday morning. Given Forecast would be a solid 4-6". The way we have high pressure sitting, the way this thing looks to be come together looks promising. Hard to say as we have seen model change big time within this time frame. Good thing is we have model support on this and some cold air to work with.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 12:00:58 AM
Remember, Alabama's snowstorm didn't show up until the last minute on the models.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 04, 2008, 12:11:16 AM
Looks like St. Louis is gonna get another good snow!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 12:16:05 AM
Actually up there, there is a VERY fine line between flurries and feet of snow. If the low pressure center tracks farther south then expected (so far it is) then they will bust... for once. I love St. Louis, fun town!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 04, 2008, 12:23:56 AM
Looks like St. Louis is gonna get another good snow!!!
am glad for once they arent in line for the late week system(not yet anyway)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 12:25:46 AM
But the real question is... who is?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 04, 2008, 12:29:25 AM
Looks a lot like the models did last Wednesday...just sayin'...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 12:31:22 AM
Is it just me Ron, or are models getting worse? And does climate change (man made or otherwise) have anything to do with it?

I don't think "climate change" has anything to do with it. The progressive flow and active pattern does. These things are coming so fast that the models just don't have enough time to really flesh out the exact tracks and it has that cumulative abberation effect once you get into long range.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 12:40:25 AM
I think you'll find though that models aren't verifying poorly overall.

BTW, everyone talks about model bias with this NW trend thing... I think you'll find the actual documented biases fascinating, particularly, the "Slightly ambitious with magnitude of high amplitude patterns" bias: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#GFS (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#GFS)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 12:40:58 AM
And with that tidbit, night all! ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 04, 2008, 12:47:58 AM
But the real question is... who is?

Face Value = Mid-Lwr MS Valley to TN Valley..obivously things can change. At this point atmosphere looks a little to dry to support moisture in the STL area
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 05:32:01 AM
Our memories are short, aren't they?  ;)

It seems like just a few days ago (less than 100 hours ago?), the models were agreeing fairly well on the today's "snowstorm"...  ;D




Maybe, we'll actually get something out of the Friday system this time.

*yawns as those hollow words are uttered*

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 04, 2008, 05:53:10 AM
Quote from: Thundersnow link=topic=1151.msg18663#msg18663 date=1204630321

[i
*yawns as those hollow words are uttered*[/i]



Drinks more coffee and nods...As an aside, I did get a nice weather radio that I paid too much for yesterday, but at least I can rest easier at night now.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 06:50:19 AM
Models still looking good this morning!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Scot on March 04, 2008, 08:07:51 AM
Currently (I know it is likely to change) what would be the timing of the possible snow and any ideas as to what we are looking at....... dusting or something more?  I know it is too hard to predict this far out but what does it appear to look like according to the models right now.  Thanks!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 08:09:02 AM
Hah!

It must be a subconscious thing, but I read the title of this thread just now as...

"POSSIBLY ANOTHER MISS LATE WEEK"

 ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 08:15:50 AM
I hope it doesn't do too much ths weekend, if anything, because I'd hate to see my already blooming Japanese Cherry trees get damaged.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 08:18:21 AM
Eric I am sure if we get 6" of snow and your tree die's that everyone will start a fund for a new one;) We love sow that much!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 08:22:03 AM
I hope it doesn't do too much ths weekend, if anything, because I'd hate to see my already blooming Japanese Cherry trees get damaged.

That's why it's not good to get above normal temperatures too early in the season.  What we don't want happening is for a warm March to encourage vegetation to bloom and foliate early... only to have it be damaged by a late season freeze, like we saw last year.

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 04, 2008, 08:27:29 AM
Eric I am sure if we get 6" of snow and your tree die's that everyone will start a fund for a new one;) We love sow that much!

Was this a Freudian slip or do you really like pigs "bacon" that much!  :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 08:32:20 AM
Was this a Freudian slip or do you really like pigs "bacon" that much!  :D

LMAO!  Nice catch, lyngo!   ;D :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 04, 2008, 08:47:42 AM
Uh oh and crap...the 3-4 0Z Euro shifts the low even more to the west and now has it tracking over the TN/NC border. The result is good for snow in west TN but east and middle TN get mostly wrap-around preceded by rain. The 6Z GFS still looks good for us in middle TN though. On the early model runs we needed a westward shift but too much of a shift and once again we're toast. Hopefully, the GFS will be right for once but it could be close.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 04, 2008, 09:05:54 AM
FWIW the 3-4 12Z NAM (old version) looks great! However, the experimental version of the NAM is not as good.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 09:24:12 AM
Northwest Trend will rear it's fugly head again...I can see it now.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 09:41:26 AM
Northwest Trend will rear it's fugly head again...I can see it now.

It's pretty sad when the models are more predictable than the weather they try to predict.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 04, 2008, 09:47:55 AM
Well, we should have pretty thick skin by the time this winter is over considering all of the dashed hopes we've had.  Personally, I'm getting pretty numb when it comes to Old Man Winter giving us the shaft this year.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 10:06:46 AM
I was numb probably a month ago.  So, now I just like playing the role of the rude, cynical heckler.  :P  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 10:13:46 AM
Well the 12GFS is a HUGE hit. Bufkit data once it comes out. Looks like a solid 6-8" depending on 850mb temps. Snowfall ratio's when 850mb is down to -15C make it upto the 25:1 ratio. For this storm I will use a blend of Zone omega and 10:1 Value. Even @ 10:1 we should see a good event out of this if it happens. High Pressure seems to be holding strong and low pressure if far enough southeast. I do not think this storm will trend Northwest.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 04, 2008, 10:19:43 AM
12z NAM accumulated snow depth at 78 hours......FWIW

(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_SE078.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 04, 2008, 10:28:06 AM
By my calculations 3-4 12Z GFS gives Nashville 3-4 inches of snow. East of Nashville it's not looking as good because of temperature concerns. For example, about 2+ inches of snow for the 'Boro and 1 inch for McMinnville in a rain turning to snow scenario. Northwest TN may turn out to be the best place to be. We need a little more cold air in place.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 04, 2008, 10:30:39 AM
I can't believe that we are once again naively getting our hopes up for a nice accumulation, after so many disappointments already this year.    ???  ???

I just can't see us getting anything more than a few hours of snow showers, maybe 1/2" if we are lucky.  I would like to have 10 times that much just to send winter out with a bang, but I fully expect we will be lamenting this event by Thursday afternoon, talking about how this just wasn't our year for snow, etc etc.

And I must admit, I really, really enjoyed the 70 degree temps we had over last weekend!!  That made me forget about the snow frustrations of the past couple of months (almost) 8) 
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 10:32:46 AM
12z NAM accumulated snow depth at 78 hours......FWIW

(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_SE078.gif)

I do like that little blue swatch just inside the Rutherford Co. line.  But until the snow flakes hit me on the head, I'm not buyin'.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 10:40:37 AM
Ok how about this? If you dont think it is going to snow then keep it to yourself. It is stupid to even think that this cannot happen. Weather does not care what happened last week and does not leave Nashville without snow in spite. This season we have not had things setup our way. This setup just like the other will produce a major storm. The area we are sitting in right now looks favorable for a winter weather event here. Given the northwest trend that we have seen( HELLO southeast ridge) we have missed wide right each time. This occasion however I do not think will trend too far out of reach. 9-16" of snow is unlikely but given the setup its possible the areas could see that. I feel nashville looking at the models at the moment has a chance for a solid 5-8" of snow. The Euro comes out in a couple hours and we can see how agreement comes along.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 10:43:34 AM
LATEST SREF - posted this for model reflection.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030409/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f069.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030409/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f072.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030409/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f075.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030409/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f078.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030409/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f081.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030409/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f084.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 04, 2008, 10:44:13 AM
Looks like another good chance.  We cant strike-out on all of them can we?   ;)

Hopefully next year, with a (hopefully) more relaxed (near neutral) Nina we can see a better set-up.  
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 04, 2008, 10:47:10 AM
For all you non-believers and nay-sayers, all I have to say is this......


(http://www.fotosearch.com/comp/corbis/DGT388/man-making-loser-sign-~-BCO20028.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 10:47:51 AM
There ya go snowdaog thats how you need to look at it. I hope I can be the one that told you so. To be totally realistic, we have a good chance a good winter storm here.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 04, 2008, 10:48:23 AM
Ok how about this? If you dont think it is going to snow then keep it to yourself. It is stupid to even think that this cannot happen. ....

How about this????????  THIS is a WEATHER FORUM and ALL OPINIONS ARE WELCOME.

Please DO NOT INVALIDATE other people's opinions simply because they DISAGREE WITH YOURS.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 10:49:37 AM
Ok how about this? If you dont think it is going to snow then keep it to yourself. It is stupid to even think that this cannot happen. Weather does not care what happened last week and does not leave Nashville without snow in spite. This season we have not had things setup our way. This setup just like the other will produce a major storm. The area we are sitting in right now looks favorable for a winter weather event here. Given the northwest trend that we have seen( HELLO southeast ridge) we have missed wide right each time. This occasion however I do not think will trend too far out of reach. 9-16" of snow is unlikely but given the setup its possible the areas could see that. I feel nashville looking at the models at the moment has a chance for a solid 5-8" of snow. The Euro comes out in a couple hours and we can see how agreement comes along.

Nashville_wx, while I'll agree with most everything you said, I must take exception with your first sentence.  Opinions are what keep this forum alive and kicking.  Just because you don't like what someone says doesn't mean they're not entitled to say it.  Just like Cookeville Weatherguy said, everybody has an opinion (I'm not going with the whole armpit deal).  Heck, even I disagree with a BUNCH of stuff that posted on here, but I'm not going to tell someone to stop posting it.  I like this forum just as much as the next guy, and when we start censoring each others opinions we start down a path akin to communism that we'll be hard-pressed to get off of.  This forum lives and breathes by what people have to say.  Let's keep it that way.  ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 10:53:53 AM
It sure is easy to say " its not going to snow" just because you are pissed off. There is so much ranting in threads that it becomes the same each time. Thats is what I  was saying.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 04, 2008, 10:56:48 AM
Love the avatar Eric, Call of Duty 4 may be one of the best online games I have ever played.  I play on the PS3. 
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 10:57:35 AM
How about this????????  THIS is a WEATHER FORUM and ALL OPINIONS ARE WELCOME.

Please DO NOT INVALIDATE other people's opinions simply because they DISAGREE WITH YOURS.

I agree totally.

Everyone has a right to their opinion on this forum. As long as the opinions and language is not offensive, everyone is free to post their own. If you've got a problem with what someone is posting, report the post and I'll review it and make the FINAL decision. And I don't want to hear anyone calling another person's opinion "stupid" again.

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 11:02:39 AM
(http://tennesseewx.com/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=582;type=avatar)

I dig the avatar, Lyngo.  ;D

Bill Hall is the man!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 11:03:38 AM
It sure is easy to say " its not going to snow" just because you are pissed off. There is so much ranting in threads that it becomes the same each time. Thats is what I  was saying.

But it's someone's OPINION.  If I remember correctly, we still live in the USA, where we have the right to free speech (but just barely).  This forum is a place where we can let our true feelings be read.  That simple.  If what someone says pisses you off, tell us so.  This is a place for the folks that are meteorologically-inclined to help those less inclined to better understand the weather.  I hate going political like this, Lord knows I despise politics, but people have the right to express their opinions, whether or not it caters to your beliefs.  That's all I'm saying. :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 11:05:49 AM
Enough talk about the opinions. I posted the policy of this forum.

Let's get back to weather and if you 2 have something you need to hash out take it to PM.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 04, 2008, 11:06:49 AM
Speaking of Bill Hall, since I grew up in Nashville, it seems like I cant remember a time when he wasnt the weather forecaster.  It took some getting used to after he left to not see him forecasting on Channel 4.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 11:08:47 AM
Enough talk about the opinions. I posted the policy of this forum.

Let's get back to weather and if you 2 have something you need to hash out take it to PM.

Weather trumps politics any day.  So how 'bout this impending snowstorm that the Southeast Ridge will undoubtedly rip from our grasps, again...for the fourth time.  If the Southeast Ridge falters, I have no doubt that the Northwest trend will take up its slack.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 11:09:18 AM
Yeah, I think Bill Hall was with Channel 4 since the 1970s... until he retired a couple of years ago.  :'(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 11:10:49 AM
Yeah, I think Bill Hall was with Channel 4 since the 1970s... until he retired a couple of years ago.  :'(

He was the MAN back in the day.  I can remember watching him and Snow Bird announce that we didn't have school during the MANY snow days we had growing up.  Bill Hall influenced a lot of people during his time at WSMV.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 04, 2008, 11:11:26 AM
(http://tennesseewx.com/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=582;type=avatar)

I dig the avatar, Lyngo.  ;D

Bill Hall is the man!

Sweet!! Now let hope we get more than a "flurry dusting" over the weekend.... ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 11:19:06 AM
l
Sweet!! Now let hope we get more than a "flurry dusting" over the weekend.... ;D

I remember him. Actually in both High Schools in Dickson, there was a cardboard cut out of him. It was freaky, he would be peaking out behind a book self. I wonder why both of our high schools have him.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 11:22:01 AM
So, what do you all think about the latest GFS run.  We are only 3 days from Friday and it is showing us right in the bullseye for accumulating snow.  If I recall, the GFS finally nailed this current event down by Saturday, 3 days out.  Think this will "stick" for Friday? (no pun intended)  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 11:28:11 AM
 >:( I am angry that there was no 5 inches of snow today, but I will live. Now on the other hand. You guys are talking about the possible chance for snow WHEN. Friday, Friday Night??? I am confused, because the NWS only has a 20 percent chance of snow then. Someone help me out here?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 04, 2008, 11:29:33 AM
I think Rob may have been a little strong in his wording, but I understand what he's saying too. Its one thing to have an opinion, its another thing to needlessly drop negativity into a discussion about snow, especially when you have no scientific reasoning beyond "its just our luck". If you wanna say northwest trend, go ahead, even though we haven't had a northwest trend with every storm. Go ahead and say southeast ridge, even when its been beaten down most of the winter... I mean, January was absolutely freezing. But don't just drop into a thread where people are getting excited about a possible event, and just say its not going to happen with little to know explanation why. That's not opinion, its borderline trolling.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 11:29:38 AM
Eric the northwest trend has been cause mostly by the Southeast ridge being underdone in models. So if the ridge is weak the chances of a western movement is less. Also it depends how the trough develops and how much energy there is and where it digs. Does it pump height up ahead of the L pressure. Thats what you are looking at.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 04, 2008, 11:31:58 AM
I think Rob may have been a little strong in his wording, but I understand what he's saying too. Its one thing to have an opinion, its another thing to needlessly drop negativity into a discussion about snow, especially when you have no scientific reasoning beyond "its just our luck". If you wanna say northwest trend, go ahead, even though we haven't had a northwest trend with every storm. Go ahead and say southeast ridge, even when its been beaten down most of the winter... I mean, January was absolutely freezing. But don't just drop into a thread where people are getting excited about a possible event, and just say its not going to happen with little to know explanation why. That's not opinion, its borderline trolling.

I concur.....good post.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 11:33:37 AM
I agree,I should have put it another way. Hopefully everyone will understand this. Back to the weather.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 04, 2008, 11:35:47 AM
So, what do you all think about the latest GFS run.  We are only 3 days from Friday and it is showing us right in the bullseye for accumulating snow.  If I recall, the GFS finally nailed this current event down by Saturday, 3 days out.  Think this will "stick" for Friday? (no pun intended)  ;D

Personally, I have not yet seen enough to determine if the models have locked on to a final solution. I have no doubt a low is coming out of the Gulf and that we will get decent precip but I am worried about temps, at least in my neck of the woods. Is this the start/continuation of a warming trend or is this as far west as the 0 line at 850 shifts when the precip arrives? I wish I knew.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 11:36:37 AM
Eric the northwest trend has been cause mostly by the Southeast ridge being underdone in models. So if the ridge is weak the chances of a western movement is less. Also it depends how the trough develops and how much energy there is and where it digs. Does it pump height up ahead of the L pressure. Thats what you are looking at.

Yeah, I'm just going by past trends, that's all.  I have ZERO meteorological experience and even less when it comes to winter weather events.  I do like reading what you winter weather enthusiasts have to say, even if I think the models won't play out that way.  Speaking of this weekend's storm specifically, I do like the run-to-run continuity, and I ESPECIALLY like being in the bulls-eye.  Only time will tell if the models will hold.  Going on what's happened so far this winter, my gut is telling me that it won't.  If they DO hold and we do get slammed, you'll see me out in the yard, underneath my flowering Japanese Cherry trees doing naked snow angels.  Simple as that. 8)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 11:41:35 AM
naked snow angels.  Simple as that. 8)

 ;D and a little  ??? LOL
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 04, 2008, 11:43:28 AM
... If they DO hold and we do get slammed, you'll see me out in the yard, underneath my flowering Japanese Cherry trees doing naked snow angels.  Simple as that. 8)

Note to self:  Do NOT drive in or around the north end of the county this weekend. ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 11:44:55 AM
;D and a little  ??? LOL

Not an image I want in my head AT ALL!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 11:45:14 AM
Note to self:  Do NOT drive in or around the north end of the county this weekend. ;)

You won't have to.  All will be posted on Photobucket.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 11:48:54 AM
Not an image I want in my head AT ALL!

And what are you implying Mr. Ron_Jarrell
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 11:51:58 AM
And what are you implying Mr. Ron_Jarrell

I'm implying I do NOT want to see Eric making naked snow angels. Nor do I want to think about Eric making naked snow angels. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 04, 2008, 12:18:25 PM
I can't believe that we are once again naively getting our hopes up for a nice accumulation, after so many disappointments already this year.    ???  ???

I just can't see us getting anything more than a few hours of snow showers, maybe 1/2" if we are lucky.  I would like to have 10 times that much just to send winter out with a bang, but I fully expect we will be lamenting this event by Thursday afternoon, talking about how this just wasn't our year for snow, etc etc.

First off - I would like to retract the word 'naively' as this implies a lack of knowledge or understanding.  Clearly this is not the case on this forum.
Second- I admit to being frustrated by the countless snow busts this winter (and last).

That being said, I still think at the end of the day we will have nothing more than a dusting.  I hope I am wrong.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 12:30:09 PM
Quote
First off - I would like to retract the word 'naively' as this implies a lack of knowledge or understanding.  Clearly this is not the case on this forum.
Second- I admit to being frustrated by the countless snow busts this winter (and last).

That being said, I still think at the end of the day we will have nothing more than a dusting.  I hope I am wrong.

 ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 04, 2008, 12:32:25 PM
First off - I would like to retract the word 'naively' as this implies a lack of knowledge or understanding.  Clearly this is not the case on this forum.....

We have a broad span of people here:  Those who can read the models well and translate the info (with varying degrees of decorum) those who are casual observers of the weather and just want to know what is going on, and those who fall in the middle..

Quote
Second- I admit to being frustrated by the countless snow busts this winter (and last).

THAT frustration is shared by ALL OF US snow-lovers here!

Quote
That being said, I still think at the end of the day we will have nothing more than a dusting.  I hope I am wrong.

I tend to agree and HOPE I am wrong too, but don't feel I should have to preface every opinion with a scientific fact or quote a trend or whatever ::).  But I can tell you SOUTHERN Rutherford County WILL BE SAFE from impending naked snow angels SHOULD this system pan out. :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 04, 2008, 01:08:05 PM
By my calculations 3-4 12Z GFS gives Nashville 3-4 inches of snow. East of Nashville it's not looking as good because of temperature concerns. For example, about 2+ inches of snow for the 'Boro and 1 inch for McMinnville in a rain turning to snow scenario. Northwest TN may turn out to be the best place to be. We need a little more cold air in place.

Just watched Henry Margusity's video blog on Accuweather.com

He is calling this a "big daddy" storm for the east coast.  He is thinking there will be "heavy snow" (in his words) from northern Mississippi, up through Tennessee and then northeast from there.  He mentioned the possibility of a foot of snow for areas Tennessee.

He drew a yellow line on the map from MS up through TN and then northeast where he though the heavy snow would be ... his line passed RIGHT THROUGH my location here in Sparta !!!   

But, that's just his opinion ... and he's been wrong enough times before to take his words with a grain of salt.

But, it does sound encouraging, at least for now. 

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 04, 2008, 01:15:24 PM
Just watched Henry Margusity's video blog on Accuweather.com

He is calling this a "big daddy" storm for the east coast.  He is thinking there will be "heavy snow" (in his words) from northern Mississippi, up through Tennessee and then northeast from there.  He mentioned the possibility of a foot of snow for areas Tennessee.

He drew a yellow line on the map from MS up through TN and then northeast where he though the heavy snow would be ... his line passed RIGHT THROUGH my location here in Sparta !!!   

But, that's just his opinion ... and he's been wrong enough times before to take his words with a grain of salt.

But, it does sound encouraging, at least for now. 



Go Warriors!!  :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 04, 2008, 01:24:21 PM
Davis Nolan's latest entry concerning this weekend's system:

Quote
I know we have been teased quite a bit this year with snow, but there could be better possibilities for a decent accumulating snow on Friday. The models may change, but check out the AVN/GFS model run valid Friday morning.


It shows a Gulf low passing to our south. The precip may briefly begin as rain or a mix of rain and snow, and turn to all snow as the day wears on. The red line on the top chart is the 5400 thickness line that approximates the rain/snow line in many cases. The black line on the bottom precip chart is the freezing line at 850 mb (about 5,000 ft.) and also is often near the rain/snow line. As the low passes by, both of those lines will be pulled southward in the northerly flow. If this verifies, it could be our first real accumulating snow of 2-3″ or more. It’s only Tuesday, so Davis is out on a limb, but that’s what you nashvillewx.com fans want, the latest. Let’s hope the kids can break out the snow sleds for real!

Some technical stuff for some of our “model watchers” who have been teased by this system for the last 7-10 days:

If you have been looking at the AVN/GFS, GFSX models during the last week (out in Voodoo Land as my friend James Spann calls it), you know that they have flip flopped, and recently up until the 2 most recent runs, kept the low and precip too far south. Now it’s farther north again.

When you look at the models in the long range, you should observe “generalities” and not “specifics”. For example, I noted the Gulf low, and told myself that we would watch that, as the “specifics” of the situation will modify as time goes on. Now we are 3 days out, and everything is farther north. And yes, it could still change.

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 01:26:42 PM
I will say that once we have gotten within the 3 day window, most of the models had it nailed down.  I know the GFS is on board with this one, but what about the others?  I haven't checked them out.  I am thinking and only thinking, this one could be legit.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 01:32:06 PM
Wow.  Unlike Davis to venture THAT far out there.  Here is what worries me the most:

Quote
Now we are 3 days out, and everything is farther north. And yes, it could still change.


The "trend" of late has been to shift everything north and west.  I just can't buy into something that can fluctuate at the drop of a dime.  Yeah, we're only three days out, but we're still THREE DAYS OUT.  As Brother Davis said, things can change.  I hate to say I'm with Dave on this one.  Until we're 18-24 hours out, there's really no certainty WHAT it's going to do. 

I will say the fact that Davis DID go out on that very shaky limb must mean that he is fairly confident in what he's seeing and that in of itself is encouraging...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 04, 2008, 01:33:15 PM
3-4 12Z Euro shows the low tracking.....drum roll....a little more to the east. Not sure it could be much better for us in middle TN. Looks like a big hit to me according to the Euro as long as the cold air is there.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Scot on March 04, 2008, 01:37:28 PM
I have a question......when are the models released and where is the best place (easy to understand) to view them?  Thanks soooo much!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 01:39:20 PM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/)

Model output, to see times released click on model status.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 04, 2008, 01:41:41 PM
We've got some pretty good model consensus at this point.  All show a storm originating in the Gulf (ala Miller A) and moving northeast with a track just east of the mountains.  As Woodvegas mentioned, the Euro shows a very good track.  The UKmet is very much in line with the Euro as far a the track.  GFS and NAM currently = snowfall in this area.  Let's keep our fingers, toes, arms, legs, and anything else you can think of crossed... ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 04, 2008, 01:47:37 PM
I have a question......when are the models released and where is the best place (easy to understand) to view them?  Thanks soooo much!

Here are a few other useful sites...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 02:02:49 PM
I agree it's looking like a very strong consensus. I'll be surprised if this doesn't verify giving us some snow. How much will be unclear. If we look at what the models spit out, that's going to be about 2-3" for middle TN. What concerns me is a bit of WAA that we get after the first period of snow. The models only barely take it above freezing, but we all know how that can bust a forecast.

One thing is for sure, with a deep trough setting up, it is going to be a VERY cold weekend for March.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 02:09:16 PM
I agree it's looking like a very strong consensus. I'll be surprised if this doesn't verify giving us some snow. How much will be unclear. If we look at what the models spit out, that's going to be about 2-3" for middle TN. What concerns me is a bit of WAA that we get after the first period of snow. The models only barely take it above freezing, but we all know how that can bust a forecast.

One thing is for sure, with a deep trough setting up, it is going to be a VERY cold weekend for March.

No WAA!!  No WAA!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 02:27:09 PM
Certainly would be nice to get a big snow... better late than never.

This all seems so familiar though... we get our hopes up, and then the models trend away from the scenario.

When will the cycle be broken?  :-\
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 04, 2008, 02:30:15 PM
For those who do not look at the models you should understand that this is a very different scenario than the other false alarms/storm busts we have had so far this season. This is a low coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and not one tracking from the west which has consistently cut north too soon for us get any decent snow. The progged low track is very similar to the March 1993 Superstorm although the overall setup (jet stream phasing and low strength) is not the same. Sure things can still go wrong, but if we're lucky this will be a most excellent snow event.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 04, 2008, 02:31:35 PM
Man, WAA quickly turns into Wah Wah Wah  :'( from me.  Always the eternal fight here in the mid-state.  We want the moisture but with comes WAA.  Should be an interesting battle and could quickly bust this snowcast.  

I hope NashvilleWx is right and the High holds strong and keeps the artic air in place.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 04, 2008, 02:33:12 PM
(http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/iws6_430.jpg)

will i get snow in chattanooga?i lve north of there in rhea county.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 02:33:48 PM
For those who do not look at the models you should understand that this is a very different scenario than the other false alarms/storm busts we have had so far this season. This is a low coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and not one tracking from the west which has consistently cut north too soon for us get any decent snow. The progged low track is very similar to the March 1993 Superstorm although the overall setup (jet stream phasing and low strength) is not the same. Sure things can still go wrong, but if we're lucky this will be a most excellent snow event.

Wasn't it a Gulf low that gave snowfall to Alabama and Georgia in January (missing us to our south)?  One thing I've observed about "Gulf Lows" is that they frequently miss us (here in Middle and West TN) a little to our southeast.  Maybe this one will be different though... would be nice.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 04, 2008, 02:36:43 PM
I think, ideally, West TN needs moisture to come out of Texas. Those gulf lows, unless they form around Houston, usually miss us.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 02:43:29 PM
I have a sneaky feeling that if this low progresses on the projected track, everything will stay plateau eastward  ???
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 04, 2008, 02:45:22 PM
Holy moly! NWS updated forecast for MEG:

Quote
Thursday Night: Periods of rain and snow. Low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 02:48:43 PM
...And here in BNA they are basically calling for nothing...Even the nws in bna is convinced that it is never going to snow here...lol
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 04, 2008, 02:50:43 PM
Wasn't it a Gulf low that gave snowfall to Alabama and Georgia in January (missing us to our south)?  One thing I've observed about "Gulf Lows" is that they frequently miss us (here in Middle and West TN) a little to our southeast.  Maybe this one will be different though... would be nice.

I may be wrong but I thought that it was more of an overrunning event along the cold front.

FWIW JB is now calling it the Blizzard of 2008 putting us a band of 3 inch snow stretching from Alabama to the northeast.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 02:53:51 PM
...I find it hard to trust a man with a last name like his  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 04, 2008, 02:59:54 PM
3-4 18Z NAM appears to give Nashville 6+ inches.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 03:01:26 PM
WOW. That 18z NAM run is impressive.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 03:03:25 PM
HELLO!  :o  I see what you mean.

Wish we had a way of fast-forwarding a couple of days to see if it's still there.  ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 03:07:08 PM
I just put a ball in the roulette wheel on this one.

Called my boss and told him to let his Post Offices know to get rid of the mail before Friday. He said, "why"? I said, "snow". I either jinxed us or made brownie points for myself.  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 03:07:16 PM
I think the models will have a much better handle on this tonight.  I will be curious to see what comes out.  If we are setting here this time tomorrow with the same look, I would almost book it.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 03:17:56 PM
I just put a ball in the roulette wheel on this one.

Called my boss and told him to let his Post Offices know to get rid of the mail before Friday. He said, "why"? I said, "snow". I either jinxed us or made brownie points for myself.  ;D

Hey, I've already debunked every jinx theory I could think of.  I've been out of town for a couple of weeks this winter... I was beginning to think that I was the jinxing factor.  It won't come a big snow while I'm here wanting it to snow.  Well, that theory turned out to not be true (thank goodness!).

Then, I thought maybe if I became the naysayer who always says it won't snow, then maybe that would help... nope, no such luck.  Obviously, when I think it's going to snow and want it to snow, that doesn't work either.

So, my only conclusion is that I must not have anything to do with it.  ::)  :-\  :D

I got nothing, man. 

Someone else must be jinxing it... 'cause you can't blame me!  :-\  ???

 ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 03:18:09 PM
I agree that things are staying on par. It will be interesting to see what model do with the QPF as the event gets closer. We could start off as rain and snow then change over to all snow. I will look at bufkit and make my conclusion on snowfall amounts given so.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 04, 2008, 03:25:40 PM
I've kept quiet on this one because I really don't expect anything. However, I'm intrigued by the very good model agreement. If we continue to see that by 12z tomorrow, I'm going to jump on the snow train. ;D I can't help but think we're going to start seeing some changes show up by tonight's 0z, but perhaps that's just me being pessimistic. I agree with what's already been said re: the infamous northwest trend. I don't think we have to worry about that. Our temperatures are going to be a little more marginal here on the Plateau than they are in Middle TN, but what we need is for things to happen exactly as progged on the NAM. We'd lose nearly half of our QPF to rain, but still end up with a decent little snow. It's so darned marginal, though. If the track shifts further southeast, we get little of anything; further northwest and we get mostly rain. If the cold air arrives slower, we get mostly rain; if it arrives quicker, it could wind up suppressing the track of the low somewhat. Getting snow in the South is like trying to thread a needle. :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 03:35:41 PM
Day 4 puts this da**** thing right on the N.C. coast.  I just think that where it is coming from in the gulf, it is going to keep it too far south for it to do us much good...I know I am getting ahead of myself here...Like I said, we should have a much better idea tonight.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 03:46:11 PM
GEM

(http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.jpg)
(http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_084.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 04, 2008, 03:49:06 PM
Day 4 puts this da**** thing right on the N.C. coast.  I just think that where it is coming from in the gulf, it is going to keep it too far south for it to do us much good...I know I am getting ahead of myself here...Like I said, we should have a much better idea tonight.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=meteomadness

... interesting projected snowfall map from Henry Margusity.  Let's cross our fingers that it comes true !!! 
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 04:00:27 PM
Looking good, 1036H
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_060m.gif)
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_066m.gif)
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_072m.gif)
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_078m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 04:04:07 PM
btw 18NAM bufkit using 10:1 shows 7-8" snow
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 04:19:41 PM
btw 18NAM bufkit using 10:1 shows 7-8" snow

Hmmm....I'm getting intrigued, but still not biting.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 04, 2008, 04:28:05 PM
*waits*
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 04, 2008, 04:32:17 PM
18z NAM BUFKIT for Memphis...in my dreams

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=TN&stn=KMEM&model=nam&time=2008030418&field=prec
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 04, 2008, 04:52:12 PM
3-4 18Z GFS is a tad warmer and shows less QPF. I'm discounting this run because it is the 18Z and because it shows 2 lows at 78hrs, one in the gulf and one in Georgia which does not seem reasonable to me. This dual low setup appears to result in a more diffuse, spread out precipitation shield and may be impeding the CAA. The 0Z run should be starting to get a weapons lock on this bad boy.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 04:54:48 PM
(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif)
Quote
DAY 3...

THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER INCREASES ON DAY 3 AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF
COAST.  MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE COLD AIR...ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO
START FALLING IN THE COLD AIR.  GIVEN THAT THE STORM WILL STILL BE
YOUNG...EVEN BY THE END OF DAY 3...WE HAVE INDICATED A BROAD RISK
OF 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE REGION OF BEST DEEP LAYERED
FRONTOGENESIS. A LOW RISK FOR FOUR INCHES IS SHOWN DUE TO BOTH THE
PHASING UNCERTAINTY AND SHORT DURATION OF SNOW THIS PERIOD.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 04:58:09 PM
From the Memphis AFD:

Quote
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR POSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE SOLID FORMS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 AND MORE LIQUID SOUTH. RIGHT NOW...THE DETAILS
REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN...SO ONLY KEPT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN
OR SNOW. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR OVER THE MIDSOUTH
.
THINK THE AMOUNT MOISTURE MAY BE QUESTIONABLE WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...RAISED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND INCLUDED MENTION IN HWO. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 04, 2008, 04:58:20 PM
Bah humbug.   >:(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 04:59:12 PM
Check out probability for exceeding WSW criteria by HPC SREF (can't post image since it's a java applet)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 05:16:03 PM
Nice Find Ron :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 04, 2008, 05:20:20 PM
Hmmm....I'm getting intrigued, but still not biting.

Same here... but I think I do jinx things like this when I bite on them.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Scot on March 04, 2008, 05:28:17 PM
So if the models still look good tomorrow for snow, do our chances of snow go up quite a bit?  Would be at least a 75% chance of the models being accurate?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 04, 2008, 05:34:17 PM
I'd say if the models look good this time on Thursday, we're good to go.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 05:39:13 PM
Check out probability for exceeding WSW criteria by HPC SREF (can't post image since it's a java applet)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/)

I was looking at that earlier.  It's a rather neat little program.  Now, when it says "exceeding WSW criteria", is that a winter storm watch or warning?  I'm assuming it means a watch, but we all know what "assume" means. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 05:59:24 PM
I believe if models show 3-4" of snow by tomorrow evening 00Z run, the late night shift may put out a Winter Storm Watch. As things come together and it looks via radar and sat,wv.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 07:05:40 PM
I was looking at that earlier.  It's a rather neat little program.  Now, when it says "exceeding WSW criteria", is that a winter storm watch or warning?  I'm assuming it means a watch, but we all know what "assume" means. ;D

Warning. That is the probability that snow accumulation would exceed warning criteria.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 07:17:43 PM
Warning. That is the probability that snow accumulation would exceed warning criteria.

And then on to a Heavy Snow Warning?  If not, what in tarnation is more "severe" than WIN STRM WAR?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 04, 2008, 07:18:33 PM
BLIZZARD WaRNING???  Is that more severe???
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 07:20:43 PM
BLIZZARD WaRNING???  Is that more severe???

LOL!  Yeah, I think so. ;D  I furgotted. :-X ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 04, 2008, 07:24:29 PM
Here, Eric, have some bacon   (http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y182/ServoBabe/icon_bacon-1.gif)....it helps me, Lord knows I've needed it.. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 07:26:39 PM
Here, Eric, have some bacon   (http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y182/ServoBabe/icon_bacon-1.gif)....it helps me, Lord knows I've needed it.. ;D

Every little bit helps.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 07:33:26 PM
Finally, my internet is working so I can get in on the conversation.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 04, 2008, 07:33:58 PM
*Waiting anxiously for the 00z NAM*
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 07:43:17 PM
I have never seen so much model consistency. NAM, GFS, SREF, CMC, Euro, Navy, JMA... all = snow!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: shaq725 on March 04, 2008, 07:52:29 PM
Old Man Winter = Boy Who Cried Wolf   ::)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 07:54:38 PM
Shaq needs old man winter to give him a hug.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 07:55:00 PM
Old Confuscious say, "Man who wait on Tennessee snow, often grow old."
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 07:56:27 PM

 Guess what. I got some(http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y182/ServoBabe/icon_bacon-1.gif)Bacon for my hamburger. It was good. I blame my addiction on this bacon  ??? fetish ??? everyone has.   ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 07:57:50 PM
Also, does some one have a model thing I can go to , that puts in IDIOT Terms for me. I get nothing you guys say when it comes to snow. LOL. Me need pictures. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 04, 2008, 08:03:26 PM
Would all you weenies stop hitting refresh on the 0z NAM page? You're going to crash the NCEP server. Or maybe it's just my slow dial-up here at home that's causing it to be slow. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 08:09:27 PM
haha, I thought I was the only one who did that!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 08:10:48 PM
Would all you weenies stop hitting refresh on the 0z NAM page? You're going to crash the NCEP server. Or maybe it's just my slow dial-up here at home that's causing it to be slow. ;D

Comcast Hi-Speed Internet always does the computer good!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 08:13:49 PM
There is not much you can't do with Cable internet. Actually let me rephrase that... is there anything cable internet  can't do.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 04, 2008, 08:17:18 PM
I heart my cable internet.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 08:18:31 PM
There is not much you can't do with Cable internet. Actually let me rephrase that... is there anything cable internet  can't do.

Yeah, it can't fix me bacon sandwiches.

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 04, 2008, 08:19:39 PM
We ain't got cable out here in the sticks. I have DSL at the office but I'm too cheap to expand at home. Dial-up suxes.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 04, 2008, 08:20:48 PM
Yeah, it can't fix me bacon sandwiches.



THINK of what kind of PRICE THAT would bring???????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 08:22:40 PM
THINK of what kind of PRICE THAT would bring???????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If Comcast would fix me bacon sandwiches, I don't think there's a price I WOULDN'T pay!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 04, 2008, 08:26:38 PM
If Comcast would fix me bacon sandwiches, I don't think there's a price I WOULDN'T pay!

Now THERE'S a man who LOVES his bacon smammiches... ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 08:29:30 PM
0z Nam=slower
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 08:30:40 PM
If Comcast would fix me bacon sandwiches, I don't think there's a price I WOULDN'T pay!



Comcast does make bacon sandwiches. Look at the one it just made me. Its very good by the way. :D ;D 

(http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h47/curiousmaster/BaconSandwich.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 04, 2008, 08:32:19 PM
I have a feeling hour 66 is going to look good, though. *fingers crossed*
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 08:33:38 PM
Well the storm is starting to take its shape and the NAM is going to work on this for the next 3-4run till we have a better idea. This run would indicate that the Low pressure seems to take a bit more of a northwest track. Not enough to ruin our chances of snow, We know we are not going to get 10" ( would be great but just) but a good snowfall is in store. This bring a bit more precip into the area but the overall 850mb 0C line is more southwest to northeast. So we look for more of a mix before changing over to snow. Lets see what the next runs do.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 08:35:20 PM
Nashvillewx, the model is also slower. That means our main snow threat would come in at night when temps are cooler.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 04, 2008, 08:37:15 PM
on second though, i dont like the way this is going. Just one run, though. I know its still going to go back and forth for a few more runs yet.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 04, 2008, 08:39:09 PM
00z NAM = Broken Hearts.  Looks like east Arkansas and Memphis are in the bullseye this run.  Northwest Trend strikes again.  
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 08:39:18 PM
Hour 66 is up, proceed with caution!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 08:39:40 PM
Ok there is always either more snow in the northwest counties, or more snow in the Cumberland Platue.(however you spell that word) . According to models, who is it looking better for. West Middle or East Middle.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 08:41:34 PM
It's okay, just one bad model run. Brush ya shouldas off
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 08:42:37 PM
Its to early to even point that out yet. What we know is that the overall setup is going to be conductive for snow in Tennessee. I dont take the New 00NAM run as anything bad, just something that confirms the overall picture. NAM is still out in it medium range and will get better once we get closer in. Right now models agree on the setup. Looks like we are going to see winter but how much snow. Right now its up in the air but It could range from 3-8" of snow. Also looking and the OLD nam things look great! :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 04, 2008, 08:42:42 PM
at hour 72 it tries to take the low right  up the spine of the mtns, which is pretty much impossible. So it has to be east (or west) of where the NAM is currently placing it. Lets hope for east :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 04, 2008, 08:43:40 PM
It's okay, just one bad model run. Brush ya shouldas off

Agreed.  We'll see what the GFS has in store on it's next run.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 04, 2008, 08:44:41 PM
interesting..maybe not as bad as it looks..(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_SE066.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 08:45:58 PM
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_SE072.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 04, 2008, 08:46:14 PM
The low hasn't trended too far northwest with this run. But the cold air is definitely slower to arrive. Actually, the 0z NAM is about what I expected: Mostly rain with a little snow on the backside (here on the Plateau at least; a little better if you're in Nashville and much better if you're in Memphis . . . for now at least). Frankly, I'd be surprised if the GFS doesn't trend the same way. I don't mind being wrong, though. :D

Check that. I was just looking at where the low was coming ashore. That is a fairly good jog northwest.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 08:47:27 PM
Crockett, giveith time :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 08:48:36 PM
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_SE078.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 08:49:02 PM
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_SE084.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 04, 2008, 08:50:01 PM
One thing to also note is the strong vort moving down the western side of the trough.

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_078m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 08:52:24 PM
That looks like a severe weather outbreak for parts of the Deep South
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 04, 2008, 08:54:17 PM
Anyone got a link to the old NAM?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Holly on March 04, 2008, 08:57:38 PM
Hi everyone,
I am going to a professional conference in Memphis on Thursday night and will be there until Saturday.  Are the models looking like West TN will also possibly be affected?  I know nothing can be pinpointed, but thanks for any opinions anyone can offer!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 08:58:55 PM
Maybe.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 08:59:01 PM
Hey yall stop complaining. The pictures have 4 + inches , in my area in Dickson County. So I shall not complain. I like this run!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: shaq725 on March 04, 2008, 09:02:04 PM
Snow would be nice, but If it even comes, it will likely be later in the day on Friday and it wil all melt by Monday. Bummer.  :( .Winter wont have pity on us school children.  :'(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 09:04:45 PM
So, snow is still snow.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 09:05:23 PM
Anyone got a link to the old NAM?

Check the NCEP site for last 24 hr set of products.

To compare 12hr and 24hr intervals here is a link:
 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdltrend/namslp.html (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdltrend/namslp.html)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: shaq725 on March 04, 2008, 09:06:39 PM
Hey yall stop complaining. The pictures have 4 + inches , in my area in Dickson County. So I shall not complain. I like this run!

Remember its just a possibility. I will always be scarred by the major winter storm that showed up on the models last week, that was supposed to occur today. :(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 09:07:04 PM
Hi everyone,
I am going to a professional conference in Memphis on Thursday night and will be there until Saturday.  Are the models looking like West TN will also possibly be affected?  I know nothing can be pinpointed, but thanks for any opinions anyone can offer!


Everything at this point shows Memphis certainly could get in on this action. Best thing I can say is stay tuned to this forum and NWS forecasts to see if we're still on the same track Thursday, or tomorrow for that matter.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: shaq725 on March 04, 2008, 09:08:13 PM
So, snow is still snow.

Yeah but you are not in school anymore. This is like the worst possible time for snow to happen. With my luck it will start snowing as soon  as I walk out of school Friday.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 09:08:47 PM
Remember its just a possibility. I will always be scarred by the major winter storm that showed up on the models last week, that was supposed to occur today. :(
Yeah but we're talking 3 days out not a week.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 09:10:29 PM
What's your thoughts on the new model runs coming in Ron?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: shaq725 on March 04, 2008, 09:13:02 PM
We still have time for the models to change so I am not getting my hopes up.Sure, we will likely see snow but the question is will be just a couple snow showers, or a snowstorm.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 09:17:02 PM
I'm almost willing to bet this run is an outlier.  I guess the GFS will tell us more.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 09:19:33 PM
What makes you say that Eric?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 04, 2008, 09:19:50 PM
Yeah but you are not in school anymore. This is like the worst possible time for snow to happen. With my luck it will start snowing as soon  as I walk out of school Friday.

Beggars can't be choosers.  ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Coach B on March 04, 2008, 09:20:41 PM
So, snow is still snow.

Not exactly.  Snow that falls on the weekend or on holidays is WASTED snow if you still have unused built-in snow days.  ;) ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 09:27:29 PM
Not exactly.  Snow that falls on the weekend or on holidays is WASTED snow if you still have unused built-in snow days.  ;) ;)
What would you rather have though. 6 inches on the weekend or 3 inches on Monday?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 09:28:03 PM
Beggars can't be choosers.  ;)

Amen Thundersnow. Amen. He is so right. Face it Mother Nature wants us to work and go to school. But snow is snow, so lets just enjoy it, and hope we can sled!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: shaq725 on March 04, 2008, 09:28:09 PM
Beggars can't be choosers.  ;)


Oh No! Im not begging for snow anymore. Last system was my last time doing that. ;) I really could care less about snow right now.It would just be nice if it happened so Middle Tennessee can get some decent snow days for a change, but if it happens , hey, I guess it just happens.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: shaq725 on March 04, 2008, 09:31:44 PM
What would you rather have though. 6 inches on the weekend or 3 inches on Monday?

If I were to answer, I would say 3 inches on Monday, unless the 6 inches stuck around for a good while.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 09:39:43 PM
What makes you say that Eric?

Well, having zero meteorological knowledge, I'm basing my assumption on the fact that almost every run up until the latest NAM run had us in the game.  Now all of a sudden the latest NAM run shows the dreaded northwest turn.  I'm not buying it.  Now if tomorrow's run shows the same thing, then it's toast...again.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 09:50:00 PM
Sounds good enough to me.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 09:50:54 PM
What's your thoughts on the new model runs coming in Ron?

I say wait to see if this is a model trend or just a bad run. Tomorrow should tell the tale.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 04, 2008, 09:51:35 PM
GFS coming in the same.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 09:52:41 PM
When will the next model runs come out?  Midnight.  Isn't that 6z?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 09:53:32 PM
 ;D

 This still puts a good chance of snow for Northwest Middle and West Tn. Sorry Nashville and East Tn.  My heart is really broken for your situation. :(  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 09:56:29 PM
Quote
This still puts a good chance of snow for Northwest Middle and West Tn. Sorry Nashville and East Tn.  My heart is really broken for your situation.

Not so fast my friend.  It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see west TN get left out on this one.  I could be totally totally wrong, but I just dont see it shifting that far northwest.  From earlier runs, it would move the low 750 miles northwest.  I just don't see that happening...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowwisher on March 04, 2008, 09:57:33 PM
Well, I can guarantee that it will snow sometime within the next two weeks.  How do I know?  Because school is out for SPRING break.  It's still ok.  I want a good snow for the kids.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 09:57:44 PM
The Northwest Trend again.  And with the snap of the fingers, no snow for Mid TN.  And no, it's not gonna come back around.  Once the models trend northwest, she's done.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on March 04, 2008, 09:59:28 PM
;D

 This still puts a good chance of snow for Northwest Middle and West Tn. Sorry Nashville and East Tn.  My heart is really broken for your situation. :(  ;D

I'd like to see all of Middle TN except the eastern and central sections of the Plateau get left out on the snow! 

Talk about whining...it'd be too funny! :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 10:00:11 PM
Tell me if I have missed something that has you guys thinking "the dreaded northwest" shift has happened.  It is getting late, so maybe I am tired.  
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 04, 2008, 10:01:13 PM
GFS is slightly NW - about the same as the NAM. Coming in with less precip.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 04, 2008, 10:03:50 PM
Wait, it looks like the low may be refoming with the large trough in place? redux?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 10:05:15 PM
This run shows Nashville being right on the rain snow line.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 10:07:16 PM
The key to this whole thing is the timing of the cold air.  There is no doubt we are going to turn cold and like someone earlier today said, getting snow around here is like trying to thread a needle.  We need the arctic airmass to get its airmass down here early Friday.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 10:11:51 PM
Even if modeling does trend warmer as the runs move on with cold air diving south and moisture in place I believe any forecast has high chance of busting if the timing of the cold air is off.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 10:12:49 PM
I think tonight we are all guessing; however, I think the picture will be crystal clear tomorrow afternoon...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 10:14:21 PM
Tell me if I have missed something that has you guys thinking "the dreaded northwest" shift has happened.  It is getting late, so maybe I am tired.  

Just going by trends.  The past couple of storms we've seen with snow potential, its been about this timeframe that she drifts northwest.  I see nothing synoptically that tells me that, just shooting with overall trends.  Do I hope I'm wrong?  Abso-friggin-lutely.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 04, 2008, 10:15:51 PM
(http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2008/HenryEast3408.gif)

accuweathers henry margusity's thinking as of now.
looks like im in the 6+ inch range?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 10:21:22 PM
He considers lighter snows less than 6 inches... Yankee! lol
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 04, 2008, 10:24:41 PM
IMO there are huge differences between the 3-5 0Z GFS and the NAM. The primary low is much further east (Georgia to Carolinas) on the GFS compared to the NAM (Eastern TN to W. VA). The NAM makes the first impulse riding along the cold front the primary low and de-emphasizes the gulf system. The GFS on the other hand makes the system in the gulf the primary low. The GFS gives most of middle TN 2-3 inches I believe. FWIW I think the NAM has been on crack most of the winter.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 10:26:49 PM
I'll wait until tomorrow to call whether or not there will be naked snow angels.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 04, 2008, 10:29:28 PM
I am with you Woodvegas...If I had to "hug" a model right now, it would be the GFS.  Quite honestly, I think the NAM would give us a better chance.  Maybe something in between the two would be perfect.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 10:30:03 PM
Eric and the naked snow angles.  ???  Does no one except me see a problem with this?   ::)  Why Bother  ::)    ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 04, 2008, 10:30:21 PM
so basically. this is looking like a good "SNOWSTORM" for EASTERN MIDDLE/EAST TENNESSEE. if it holds together tomorrow will tell. but looks like i could be making a snowman saturday morning :). all the models are agreeing for a good BIG SNOW for EAST TENNEESSEE. except the NAM :/.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 04, 2008, 10:31:50 PM
Eric and the naked snow angles.  ???  Does no one except me see a problem with this?   ::)  Why Bother  ::)    ;D

No, my wife has gone on record and said there will be NO naked anythings in our yard.  Even our snowman will have clothes on.  Go figure!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Coach B on March 04, 2008, 10:33:37 PM
What would you rather have though. 6 inches on the weekend or 3 inches on Monday?
3 inches on a Monday.  Everytime!

If you had said a 12 inches on the weekend or 1 inch on a Monday I'd have to think about it.  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 10:38:08 PM
I'd take the 6 inches because the snow would stick around for a few days.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 04, 2008, 10:38:28 PM
NAM BUFKIT for Memphis = nice snowstorm:
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=TN&stn=KMEM&model=nam&time=2008030500&field=prec

Little Rock BUFKIT = buried:
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=AR&stn=KLIT&model=nam&time=current&field=prec
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 10:39:12 PM
IMO there are huge differences between the 3-5 0Z GFS and the NAM. The primary low is much further east (Georgia to Carolinas) on the GFS compared to the NAM (Eastern TN to W. VA). The NAM makes the first impulse riding along the cold front the primary low and de-emphasizes the gulf system. The GFS on the other hand makes the system in the gulf the primary low. The GFS gives most of middle TN 2-3 inches I believe. FWIW I think the NAM has been on crack most of the winter.

Part of what you said hit the nail on the head. I don't think any of the models have any kind of handle on the strength of this system. My personal opinion, or I guess you could say my gut instinct is that the models so far have been bringing the gulf low in too strong. I think it will come in weaker and need to wrap up a bit. Climatologically this thinking has a lot of backing with this type of sytem coming out of the GoM with Miller A characteristics.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 10:43:37 PM
I don't know. Remember the water temps in the Gulf are a little warmer than they would be in January. That may help our case in terms of the strength of the low.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 10:50:22 PM
The Canadian model still looks good and the foreign models have fared very well this winter.
(http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 10:54:34 PM
I don't know. Remember the water temps in the Gulf are a little warmer than they would be in January. That may help our case in terms of the strength of the low.

The low is forming and strengthening in response to the jet rounding the base of the trough. Water temps will play a role in moisture advection into the system, but that's about it.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 10:56:10 PM
Yeah.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 04, 2008, 11:16:19 PM
I am not getting this. In the total of two pages. People have posted two very different graphics. One that puts Memphis in the bullseye and then the other, with East Tn getting the most snow. Someone explain this to me. Please.

(http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h47/curiousmaster/Weather4.gif)


The one above gives me a great chance of snow. The one below is not so detailed.


(http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h47/curiousmaster/Weather3.gif)



So can someone pull up some graphics like the first one above, its alot more descriptive, and someone please tell me why there is such a difference in the two?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 04, 2008, 11:26:13 PM
First map is latest NAM run with snowfall output. Scond map is Henry M's(weatherman at accuwx.com) opinion from early this afternoon. He has a video blog as well to go along with his prediction. If NW trend gets hold the NAM may be the one to look at.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 11:39:48 PM
Franks Strait, accuweather southern weather expert. New video hot off the press.
http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=strait (http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=strait)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 04, 2008, 11:52:56 PM
So basically Frank Strait said the same thing everyone here has already noticed. NAM is west, GFS is a good track for us. LOL
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 04, 2008, 11:54:26 PM
Yep, the NAM is kinda by its self. GFS=snowed in... NAM=screwed
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 12:01:20 AM
Does anyone have the latest NAM snowfall total picture. The one I post above has to be earlier, because it has a good snowfall totals for my area!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2008, 12:26:36 AM
Does anyone have the latest NAM snowfall total picture. The one I post above has to be earlier, because it has a good snowfall totals for my area!

nope that is the correct one...just noticed the contast in Davidson Co...far SE corner = trace amounts to far NW = 6 inches. Shelby Co not much different with 2 inch amts SE and 8 inch amounts NW
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 12:46:55 AM
Yep, the NAM is kinda by its self. GFS=snowed in... NAM=screwed

So why would someone post whats quoted above. Because by looking at the map, that is very good for me, not screwed.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2008, 12:53:37 AM
So why would someone post whats quoted above. Because by looking at the map, that is very good for me, not screwed.

FAce value white bluff looks good..other parts of the Nashville Metro not near as good as you. Bottom line...the further NW you are in the Nashville Metro, the better off youare in regards to snowfall. This is basically the same for Memphis too
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 01:08:00 AM
FAce value white bluff looks good..other parts of the Nashville Metro not near as good as you. Bottom line...the further NW you are in the Nashville Metro, the better off youare in regards to snowfall. This is basically the same for Memphis too


Tell me that come Thursday and you will be my hero!  ;D  Thanks for all the help with my idiotic questions!  ;D Oh and I guess I can give you a smiley face too.....  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 02:06:32 AM
Just took a peek over at ewall and the 0z Euro. It's further west. Congrats Memphis.

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 03:05:29 AM
Quote
FXUS64 KOHX 050856
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 AM CST WED MAR 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE MID STATE. WIND SPEEDS ARE
STILL A LITTLE HIGH OWING TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS THE GRADIENT BREAKS DOWN.

LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50`S
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS WARMS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS CHURN UP A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF
THE LOUISIANA COAST BY 06Z FRIDAY AS A MOISTURE-LADEN COLD FRONT
NEARS THE MID STATE FROM THE WEST. LOW CENTER WILL RACE UP THE
EAST COAST ON FRIDAY, PLACING MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
THE MID STATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THURSDAY
NIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. THE 5400 METER 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS LINE WILL PENETRATE AS FAR AS CLARKSVILLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW,
AS LONG AS WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE HANGING AROUND.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY BY SUNDAY, AND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE WEEKEND, IT
WILL ALSO BE DRY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      53  35  52  31 /   0   0  10  60
CLARKSVILLE    50  33  49  28 /   0  10  10  60
CROSSVILLE     50  33  52  32 /   0   0  10  50
COLUMBIA       53  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  60
LAWRENCEBURG   53  35  56  34 /   0   0  10  60
WAVERLY        52  34  51  30 /   0  10  10  60
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 05, 2008, 05:44:16 AM


I'm a little confused as to the wording on the latest forecast discussion from the NWS office in Nashville, which i'm assuming was based on info derived from the 06z maps.  The latest discussion, dated 2:56 AM this morning, states ...

"Both the GFS and NAM solutions churn up a low pressure center OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST by 06Z Friday ..."

But, looking at the maps, the low pressure center appears to be located well inland in central Lousiana during that time period, NOT off the coast.

What maps are they looking at which show the low center located off the Louisiana coast ???
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 06:05:11 AM
So the better it is for Memphis, give Dickson County a better chance. Is there an updated Snow Fall (Inches) map. I like seeing that map, where can I find it?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 06:40:15 AM
MEM morning AFD:

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
425 AM CST WED MAR 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER AS WINDS RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS IOWA INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST
BY THURSDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO INITIATE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRIDE THE STALLED FRONT LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INFILTRATE OUR REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT THURSDAY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE MID
SOUTH. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY...EXPECT COLDER
AIR TO BE DRAWN SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO FORCE THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AT THIS
TIME...THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. PLAN
TO CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER IN TODAYS HWO.

THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 06:54:58 AM
HPC's latest >4" snow probability map:



[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 06:58:36 AM
This storm is already setting up just like the last one -- SE OK to KY. It's over for everyone in TN.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 07:03:41 AM
Does not look like that according to the map above your post.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 05, 2008, 07:04:54 AM
This storm is already setting up just like the last one -- SE OK to KY. It's over for everyone in TN.

Huh?  Where do you get that?  I'd go with HPC's current thinking as it looks like Nashville is very close to a 40% chance of a greater than 4" snowfall.  NAM was the most western model but it still had Nashville getting snow.  GFS, Euro, Canadian all look decent for Nashville.  

As someone else has posted...a Gulf Low isn't a good track for the areas you mentioned.  Well some of KY is in a good spot but not OK.    

If the 12z today and 0z tonight confirm and dont bring the cold air in too late I think we can reasonable expect a few inches of snow.  
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2008, 07:06:55 AM
Ouch, the temp profiles were bad on the 06z NAM. I'm glad I was waiting until noon today to jump on the snow train. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 07:07:25 AM
Temps aren't getting cold enough. Across all models.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 07:23:25 AM
Why doesn't that surprise me.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2008, 07:33:17 AM
This storm is already setting up just like the last one -- SE OK to KY. It's over for everyone in TN.

According to most models that is not correct. Could it continue to swing north yes..but it is not over for everyone in TN.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Scot on March 05, 2008, 07:39:20 AM
When do the next models come out in central standard time (also what time is that in zulu so I can figure this time stuff out!).  From what I see, it isn't over yet by any means.  Thanks!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 07:42:44 AM
*still waiting....and waiting....and waiting....*
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 05, 2008, 07:49:05 AM
Temps aren't getting cold enough. Across all models.

The NAM is the only model I have seen where temps arent in line.  The GFS starts as a bit of rain but quickly changes over.  Euro is close. 

Of course it is March but cold artic air can still sneak in here from time to time in March.  As always we will be right on the line or near it so this whole thing could easily bust and we will be left crying in the cold rain.  There are very few sure thing snow events in this neck of the woods. 
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 07:51:49 AM
Of course it is March but cold artic air can still sneak in here from time to time in March.  As always we will be right on the line or near it so this whole thing could easily bust and we will be left crying in the cold rain.  There are very few sure thing snow events in this neck of the woods. 
As usual.  *sigh*

I need more coffee.  I'm a grouch this morning.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 08:03:37 AM
As usual.  *sigh*

I need more coffee.  I'm a grouch this morning.

...and a bacon sandwich.

(http://neatorama.cachefly.net/images/uploads/2007/04/450_bacon.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 08:06:55 AM
...and a bacon sandwich.

(http://neatorama.cachefly.net/images/uploads/2007/04/450_bacon.jpg)
mmmmm....baaaaaaacoonnnnnnn
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 08:10:51 AM
And don't be disheartened YET, WR...Even if this thing doesn't pan out, remember what Bogie said to Bergman toward the end of Casablanca, "We'll always have bacon."  So, things can NEVER get too bad. ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 08:11:21 AM
12Z NAM coming in . . . slightly more NW with this model through 30 hours. FWIW.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 08:12:58 AM
And don't be disheartened YET, WR...Even if this thing doesn't pan out, remember what Bogie said to Bergman toward the end of Casablanca, "We'll always have bacon."  So, things can NEVER get too bad. ;)
*sigh*  Bogie was so romantic. 

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 08:16:22 AM
3-5 6Z GFS looks better for Middle TN giving most of us about 3 inches of snow in a rain changing to snow scenario. 0Z Euro has the low tracking from northern GA to the VA/West VA border and up across Pennsylvania while the 6Z GFS has it moving from southern GA across the Carolinas and up the coast. IOW the GFS is east of the Euro. The 6Z NAM is an outlier being the furtherest west and seems less likely to verify. It's hard to say for sure but best I can tell the Euro has more precip associated with the storm than does the GFS.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 08:18:01 AM
LOU 6:10 AM AFD:

Quote
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THURSDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS BEGINNING TO SHOW A BIT
MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...MOSTLY TO THE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WOULD MEAN AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR THE
CWA AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THIS TRACK...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES NORTH OF BOWLING GREEN UP THROUGH JEFFERSON
COUNTY KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND POINTS EAST. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HPC AND WILL
TREND HIGHEST QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.

PRECIP TIMING LOOKS TO START IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MAIN PRECIP AXIS
SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING SNOW AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO PUMP HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS
OUT...BUT DO TEND TO OVERDUE THINGS A BIT AND HAVE STARTED OFF SNOW
ACCUMULATION INTRODUCTION IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH AGAIN THE
FOCUS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE.

STILL IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT A TRACK SHIFT COULD CHANGE SNOW
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSIDERING THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WILL OCCUR
NEARLY 48 HOURS FROM NOW...AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO TAKE A LOOK TO SEE
IF EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN LOW PRESSURE TRACK REMAINS THE NORM IN
THE MODELS.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 08:23:51 AM
Not sure if anyone has posted this, but this is the HPC's snowfall chance in excess of 8 inches:

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif)

I just don't know about that.  Does anyone know what the HPC uses for these types of charts?  Do they go off of last nights model runs or an interpretation of what they think will happen (i.e. Accuweather, TWC)?  Sure would be nice if it verified.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2008, 08:26:06 AM
12Z NAM coming in . . . slightly more NW with this model through 30 hours. FWIW.

Doesnt looks any different than the previous run through 48..in fact through hr 48 precip hasnt reached STL where before ot had.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 08:26:33 AM
NAM seems to be digging the trough much deeper out west, which is why its pumping up temps and giving us a more western solution.

I highly doubt the NAM is scoring a coup here, especially with past performance (It was 100 miles or more northwest with the last storm)

Regarding HPC, they make forecasts based off of how they think a storm is going to track, not verbatim what the models are saying. I think a lot of times though, they just blend the models
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 08:27:09 AM
Here's a snippet from the HPC.  They seem to agree with the northwest trend of the latest models.  

Quote
THE DEVELOPING LOW TO MID CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE TN
AND OH VALLEYS...WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PHASING.  THE 00Z ECMWF/03Z SREFMEAN/00Z NAM AND NAM PARALLEL HAVE
TRENDED WEST OF THEIR PRIOR TRACKS.  GREATER WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN
TO THIS CLUSTER CONSIDERING THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HAS LED TO MORE INLAND TRACKS OF STORMS IN THE EAST THIS
WINTER.  ALSO...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH IS FURTHER WEST OVER THE
CENTRAL US...LEAVING ROOM FOR AN INLAND TRACK TO OCCUR.
 THIS
WOULD PRESENT A THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW IN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
WITH A MIXTURE OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE APPALACHIANS. THE SFC HIGH
RETREATS QUICKLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO THE COLD AIR
DAMMING SHOULD BE MODEST...KEEPING ICING POTENTIAL LIGHT
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 08:27:54 AM
Through 54 hours, the bulk of the precip is over Middle TN. Only the far NW part of TN has temps that will support snow.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 08:29:13 AM
60 hours - west TN is cold enough - bulk of precip has moved to Great Lakes. Southern Middle TN is dryslotted. Very little moisture in the west.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 05, 2008, 08:30:40 AM
Ohhh.... *taps fingers really loudly*... Another Tennessee snow system, so hard to come by.. St. Louis makes it look sooo easy.. :(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 08:31:08 AM
Courtesy of HPC...again.  I do like the position of the low over GA and SC.  Would like to see it a touch more east though.

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2008, 08:34:51 AM
12z NAM = 6z NAm not a great run for TN, BUT not farther NW. This really looks susect with the Low in southern MS to central GA...that is not usually snow track for the I-44 corridor at all. If there's going to be a problem its that its March and cold air is getting harder to come by in TN.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 08:37:09 AM
I honestly don't think temps will be an issue.  Most all parties involved agree that temps will take a nosedive between Thursday night and Sunday morning.  Thurs. night temp is 32 and Fri temp is 40.  I don't believe we'll see 40 on Friday, especially if this thing gets in here Thurs. night.  I'm growing very tired of these fickle storm systems.  "Hey, let's tease the people in Mid TN about a winter weather event of epic proportions, then let's rip it out from underneath them."  "Yay!  That was fun!  Let's do it again two weeks from now."  "OK!"  "Yay, that was even better than the last time!  Yeah, boy did they bite on that one."  "Those folks are so gullible."  
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 08:40:42 AM
Good news for Nashville - as it looks like they get in on some action on Friday evening.

MEG is pretty much left with a stray flurry.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 08:43:25 AM
Courtesy of HPC...again.  I do like the position of the low over GA and SC.  Would like to see it a touch more east though.

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack.gif)

This is not a bad track for us. Don't be thrown off by the first wave of precip that will be rain....look at what's going on when the low starts to move through GA. The HPC snow probability maps seem to indicate they favor a more eastern track for the low.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 08:48:43 AM
12 NAM takes longer to get the snow to us, but it doesn't disappoint. Low bombs as its heading up the coast, Nashville looking at 6-8 inches via NAM.

I think we're running into a situation that its hard to lose. If it goes west, its gonna redevelop and bomb out and give us 6 -12 hours of heavy snow. If it goes east, we get a longer period of moderate snow.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 08:52:32 AM
I swear I'm going to start moving north for the winter.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 08:54:31 AM
This sucker is starting to remind me of the track of the Jan 2003 storm, where memphis got cold rain and nashville got a dumping.

Man... I said I wasn't gonna get excited after last weeks bust, and look at me now. full on weenie mode.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 08:57:43 AM
This sucker is starting to remind me of the track of the Jan 2003 storm, where memphis got cold rain and nashville got a dumping.

Man... I said I wasn't gonna get excited after last weeks bust, and look at me now. full on weenie mode.
*snicker*  you said weenie.


Honestly, though, I'm playing the devil's advocate on this one.  I am just not yet convinced it's going to pan out for us.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 05, 2008, 09:00:05 AM
All winter, the models have pretty much been dead on 1.5 to 2 days out, usually resulting in a bust for us; however, we are quickly approaching that window.  If the current trend continues, we are in.

The way things go around here though, this will be the one time that we get within our window and then get yanked  >:(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 09:01:53 AM
From The Weather Vane wiki:

Quote
A Weather weenie is a person that's very, very passionate about weather. They will generally spend hours analyzing models, such as the NAM, GGEM, and UKMET as well as several others. A true weather weenie lives and dies by each model run. They love to watch every type of weather, be it a Thunderstorm, Supercell, Waterspout, Tornado, Duststorm, Dust devil, Flood, Hurricane, Ice storm, Rain, Sleet, Snow, Blizzard and other kinds of Weather. Some weather weenies get so passionate about model tracking, that they become Model huggers. More on that later. Many weather weenies love to develop their own Graphical maps that show how much snow different areas of the country will get during storms. Most, if not all, weather weenies crave the holy grail of blizzards, the Kocin-Uccellini snowstorm event, also known as a KU Blizzard! These snows tend to overperform and are classified as MECS, (Major East Coast Snowstorms), HECS, (Historical East Coast Snowstorms), or even the BECS, which is a Biblical East Coast Snowstorm. The Forecaster who coined the above three terms used to describe East Coast Snowstorms is none other than Dave Tolleris. Weather weenies love meteorology and will allow the weather to come before all other areas of their lives, including but not necessarily limited to marriages, work, and family life.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 09:03:44 AM
I've always heard, (and thus used), the term weather junkie.

And with that said, I'm going to stop being 3rd grade silly.  Meh.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 09:07:19 AM
12 NAM showing Nashville the love (at 78 hrs though)

(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_SE078.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 09:07:25 AM
Using rough approximations (not Bufkit) my interpretation of the 12Z NAM is that it gives Nashville lots of rain followed by 1/2 inch of freezing rain followed by 3.5 inches of snow.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 09:08:56 AM
12 NAM showing Nashville the love (at 78 hrs though)

(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_SE078.gif)

Looking at that, Frankfort/Louisville/Lexington get absolutely obliterated.  WOW...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 09:10:04 AM
Where are you getting that wood? the NAM certainly doesn't show surface temps, and the 850s drop well below freezing with a lot of precip falling in the next 12 hours. I'm just not sure how you're getting there.

12z NAM, in my estimations, is not a freezing ran set up. 850 temps drop below freezing first, and then heavy precip and dynamic cooling drop the temps at the surface.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 09:15:16 AM
Where are you getting that wood? the NAM certainly doesn't show surface temps, and the 850s drop well below freezing with a lot of precip falling in the next 12 hours. I'm just not sure how you're getting there.

12z NAM, in my estimations, is not a freezing ran set up. 850 temps drop below freezing first, and then heavy precip and dynamic cooling drop the temps at the surface.

Look at the text output from here....

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/cmet.pl?userid=1046&misc=269
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 05, 2008, 09:23:13 AM
*snicker*  you said weenie.


Honestly, though, I'm playing the devil's advocate on this one.  I am just not yet convinced it's going to pan out for us.

It's hard to say right now.  According to Henry Margusity at Accuweather, none of the models are in agreement yet.  The NAM is showing a more westerly track, while the GFS and EURO are showing a more easterly track.  He is sticking to his guns that a low will track through GA and up through the Carolinas ... so, he is still sticking with his original snow map which shows a good snowfall from northern MS up through middle TN.

I enjoy reading his blogs and watching his videos, but if this storm doesn't pan out like he thinks, he will lose a lot of credibility in my book.  There's nothing worse than a meteorologist who cries wolf. 
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 09:23:29 AM
Timing question:

Asssuming this whole thing does not fall apart with the next few model runs, what would be the most likely window for frozen precip?  Would this affect commuting on Friday?  It appears things could get dicey around Nashville Friday afternoon, before the evening rush???
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 09:25:43 AM
It's hard to say right now.  According to Henry Margusity at Accuweather, none of the models are in agreement yet.  The NAM is showing a more westerly track, while the GFS and EURO are showing a more easterly track.  He is sticking to his guns that a low will track through GA and up through the Carolinas ... so, he is still sticking with his original snow map which shows a good snowfall from northern MS up through middle TN.

I enjoy reading his blogs and watching his videos, but if this storm doesn't pan out like he thinks, he will lose a lot of credibility in my book.  There's nothing worse than a meteorologist who cries wolf. 

I think Henry is guilty of wishcasting too often; interpreting the models to the most favorable way to give the northeast the heavy snow.  I cannot even remember the last time he mentioned middle TN in his blog, before this storm...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 09:30:04 AM
Timing question:

Asssuming this whole thing does not fall apart with the next few model runs, what would be the most likely window for frozen precip?  Would this affect commuting on Friday?  It appears things could get dicey around Nashville Friday afternoon, before the evening rush???

Best guess is Friday night but don't hold me to it. This is a very very interesting storm. We still do not have model consensus. It's nice to still be in the game this close to the event.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 09:44:05 AM
I can't explain how much I love seeing that massive ridge over the pacific coast, cause youalways know what's coming with that happens.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 09:44:19 AM
(http://www.shof.msrcsites.co.uk/tent.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 09:49:45 AM
Speaking of Hackuweather, does anyone know what Bastardi's take is on this storm?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 09:51:49 AM
*giggles with WR*  Very good.. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 09:52:00 AM
I'm sure he's throwing out analogs of the worst storms in the history of the south and east coast. He nailed the pattern this year, but has been awful on individual storms.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 09:53:35 AM
*giggles with WR*  Very good.. ;D
Yeah, I'm in a mood this morning.  Sorry gang.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2008, 09:53:45 AM
Speaking of Hackuweather, does anyone know what Bastardi's take is on this storm?

I'm not sure where I read it, but I believe his thinking was basically along the same line as Margusity.

But if there's anyone who overhypes a situation more than Margusity, it's Bastardi.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 09:55:28 AM
This sucker needs to bomb out in the next frame or we're looking at an inch tops. Temp profiles are so marginal. Gah!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2008, 09:55:45 AM
No real changes from the 06z GFS on the 12z through 60 hrs. Perhaps just a touch drier, but otherwise the same.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 09:57:13 AM
AHHHH Winter cancel. Low track is decent, but moisture is limited. We need the chinese to come manipulate our weather.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 09:58:55 AM
It bombs out just past us and dumps on wv and ky. doesn't give us the solution we want. throw it out!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 09:59:39 AM
AHHHH Winter cancel. Low track is decent, but moisture is limited. We need the chinese to come manipulate our weather.

Why not. They manipulate everything else in this country.

... although I do like their food. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 10:02:02 AM
Why not. They manipulate everything else in this country.

... although I do like their food. ;D
Amen.

Great.  Now I want chow mein.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 10:04:41 AM
Amen.

Great.  Now I want chow mein.

I'd like to meet General Tso and tell him thanks for the chicken! How come everyone that knows how to cook good chicken is in the military? General Tso, Colonel Sanders... ;D

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 10:05:53 AM
Ron, you giving up yet?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 10:06:52 AM
Amen.

Great.  Now I want chow mein.

We've got a great little Chinese take-out restaurant around here you'd love, WR... It's name?

Wok and Roll

Food isn't bad either. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 10:09:44 AM
Ron, you giving up yet?

Nope... I'd need to see another bad model run tonight to give up on a big snowstorm.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 10:09:52 AM
I'd like to meet General Tso and tell him thanks for the chicken! How come everyone that knows how to cook good chicken is in the military? General Tso, Colonel Sanders... ;D



LOL!  Great you guys.  Now I've got a rumblin' in my gut that isn't from the Taco Bell... ;D

On to the serious news of the day.  Jeff Ray just posted this over at his neck o'the woods.  Notice what is in bold lettering...

Quote
72 03/08 06Z 34 33 335 10 0.33 0.00 2.9 -19.4 1004 -RA
75 03/08 09Z 29 27 311 11 0.21 0.03 -0.7 -21.0 1004 TSSN
78 03/08 12Z 24 22 302 14 0.07 0.00 -10.9 -24.4 1008 -SN

Meant to post this early morning but the 6z NAM surface run shows brief heavy snow during the overnight headed into Saturday morning.

(HOW TO READ: first line, left to right)
72hrs out, on Saturday at 6z (midnight heading into Saturday morning). 34 degrees with a northwest wind at 10mph, .21″ total precip in the 3 hrs, 850 temp too warm at 2.9C (about 38 degrees), 500mb at -19.4, and surface pressure at 1004mb and light rain. At 6z the reading is TSSN which I think is Thundersnow

Now reading some of his other posts, granted they were made before 10am, he seems to think we could still get hammered.  I don't know what's happenin' here and obviously the models don't either.  Well, only one thing is for sure in life and that is death.  And no snow in TN is a close second.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 10:11:23 AM
Eric I was getting ready to post Jeff Ray's last post.  Also wanted to comment that Jeff Ray is no Chatty Kathy on that blog and this is his FOURTH post today.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 10:11:51 AM
I cannot believe this.  Just within a matter of a couple of hours it's over....
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 10:13:07 AM
This system depends on the strengthening of the low, the area that the massive high sets up, where the precip bands form... so many variables. I want to give up, but I just can't.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 10:13:17 AM
LOL!  Great you guys.  Now I've got a rumblin' in my gut that isn't from the Taco Bell... ;D


Eww.  servo- LOL @ Wok n Roll.  Hopefully the food is good.

I still don't feel this one.  Something just doesn't seem right to me...which, quite honestly, could be the fact that thus far all of our snowstorms have gone to SQUAT.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2008, 10:13:26 AM
One bad run doesn't mean a storm isn't happening anymore than one good run means that it is. The 12z NAM painted Nashville under nearly a half foot of snow. People live and die by a single model run too often. I don't buy a solution that shows so little moisture on the northwest side of the low, and that's not necessarily the weenie in me talking, because I think temps will be too warm for much snow in East TN anyway.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 10:17:20 AM
Not to mention that the 12z gfs has a freakin tropical storm look to the low down in the gulf. I imagine that feature is robbing the moisture.

I assume there could be some wetbulbing? Or would it be primarily a dynamic cooling event?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 10:18:48 AM
My take on the 3-5 12Z GFS....shifts the low track a little northwest and gives Nashville 1-2 inches of snow preceded by rain....looks closer to the Euro solution....shows less QPF than other models???
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Chris H on March 05, 2008, 10:23:58 AM
I wish I knew what wetbulbing meant.

In any event, this looks like a great setup for a typical Tennessee March snow event.. I'm awaiting the results of the models.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 10:25:36 AM
Chris,

Wetbulbing is when evaporation of precipitation robs the air of heat, and causes temps to drop.

If the dewpoint is low, and rain starts falling and its 35 degrees, it will often drop temps below freezing.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 10:26:04 AM
I wish I knew what alot of this terminology meant LOL.  I'm working on it!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Chris H on March 05, 2008, 10:27:12 AM
Interesting.. thanks jmundie.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 10:28:48 AM
WTG jmundie!  I was a bit confused on that, too, thanks for the definition :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 05, 2008, 10:44:37 AM
I have a sinking feeling that we are going to be a cold rain with hopes of some sparse wrap around snow on the tail end of this thing...what is the general consensus with the rest of you?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 10:45:38 AM
What else would be new?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 10:48:22 AM
What else would be new?

Exactly.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 05, 2008, 10:50:10 AM
This system could have huge bust potential.  I just can't see how a 1038 high would not penetrate a little further SE than currently shown.  Like I heard someone else say, this is a case of the cold air chasing the moisture.  If the cold can penetrate a little further than models are showing then we'll be in the game.  Also, a difference in the low track 50-100 miles either way will make or break us.  That sounds like a lot but in reality it isn't.  This will, like all of our snow opportunities, come down to the wire.  That's my 2 cents for now....
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 11:02:35 AM
Say it aint so Bill....lol
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 11:19:01 AM
From Margusity @ Accuweather:

Quote
A Look at Big Daddy
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
LOTS OF QUESTIONS YET TO RESOLVE.

The midday model runs continue to show the problems of the storm track. The NAM is taking the storm west of the mountains while GFS goes somewhat with the track I showed on the map yesterday. The issues that need to be resolved are..

1. Strength of the storm. Euro is the strongest showing a blizzard for northern Ohio into Ontario and western New York. GFS is moderate in strength but is probably having problems showing a lead low pressure coming out. One storm, would mean a stronger storm on the GFS runs, which we should see later on.

2. Storm track. NAM goes west of the mountains, the Euro up the mountains and the GFS and Nogaps along the coast. On the 500 mb image below, the digging of the shortwave into the Mississippi valley causes the flow to back along the eastern seaboard, thus warmer air comes in and the storm tracks hugs inland and along the coast. If that system does not dig as much, the storm will take more of an eastern jog.

3. Snow amounts. I think the general area of 6-12 inches comes out of Tennessee and heads northeast as shown. If the storm really winds-up, two feet of snow will be psosible across parts of western New York, Ontario, VT, NH, and Quebec.


I think he covers all the issues we're all looking at.  At least he's still on board with TN getting hammered.  I guess we really won't know what's going to happen until it does.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 11:28:39 AM
Wow 1 run that doesnt show 10 Feet and everyone is jumping ship! Really do not understand some of your thinking. We are still up for a good snow on friday. 12Z bufkit shows 3" of snow for the area and that most likely is playing it easy. The problem that I see is that we just change over to snow a bit later. Still my thoughts are will a solid 3-6" .
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 11:33:15 AM
From Margusity @ Accuweather:

I think he covers all the issues we're all looking at.  At least he's still on board with TN getting hammered.  I guess we really won't know what's going to happen until it does.

How this works out is one of the keys to this storm...

"GFS is moderate in strength but is probably having problems showing a lead low pressure coming out. One storm, would mean a stronger storm on the GFS runs, which we should see later on."

If he is right and it phases into one stronger storm it could help us out substantially. I do not believe we have seen the final GFS solution yet...JMO

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 11:34:04 AM
Just for the record:  I didn't jump ship.  It's hard to jump ship when one wasn't on it to begin with. ;)

I'm waiting.  Thank you, that is all.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 11:37:04 AM
Wow 1 run that doesnt show 10 Feet and everyone is jumping ship! Really do not understand some of your thinking. We are still up for a good snow on friday. 12Z bufkit shows 3" of snow for the area and that most likely is playing it easy. The problem that I see is that we just change over to snow a bit later. Still my thoughts are will a solid 3-6" .

Agree 100%. I think some have been led astray by the wretched NAM model.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 11:41:13 AM
What Margusity says is very true. We started to see the 500mb solution start to change about 3 runs ago. We lost some of the phasing. Also now we can start taking the SREF and some of its usefull info into account. Right now we can look at the spread and POP%. I will review the info along with MET Jim Bishop and get back with you.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 11:43:22 AM
Yes the NAM has not preformed the best lately. Overall its a ok model to use, its just something that losing its verification out past 36-48 hours.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 11:46:43 AM
OHX:

Quote
SFC TROUGHING MORE NORTH IN THE LATEST MODELS. RAIN FRI. BIG
MODEL DIFF WITH PCPN TYPE FRI NIGHT. GFS/NAM COMPROMISE BRINGS
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AFT 08/06Z BNA. MODELS AGREEMENT WITH COLDER
AIR SAT...AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT TO INCLUDE THIS
CHANGES IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Scot on March 05, 2008, 11:54:23 AM
Don't new models come out in the next few minutes (@ Noon CST) or am I mistaken?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 11:58:43 AM
They will start to run at noon but it will be a few hours before we see them.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 12:04:01 PM
LZK moving things northward:

Quote
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE TEXAS COAST...AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW
WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST ONE...AND WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES...WINTRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE STATE.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND COULD
BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

They had suggested this would be a central/southern arkansas storm yesterday.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 12:10:32 PM
So I have seen Heavy snow and Then no snow, in the last few pages.  ???  ???  ???  ???  ???  ???  ???  ???  ???  ???  ???  ???  ???  ???  ??? 

Does my confusion show. So can someone give me a somewhat estimate on what they believe will happen in Western Middle Tn!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 12:21:54 PM
It'll be okay Matt.  I think most everyone is waiting for the next model runs to become available for analysis and some of us are seeing what the local NWS offices (and those in surrounding areas) are going to do.  I would tend to think a few WATCHES/ADVISORIES could go up today (perhaps in AR)...

But it is still a guessing Game!!

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 05, 2008, 12:25:05 PM
Per a post from a met on another forum, the 12z Euro has trended a tad EAST!  Low tracking to Atlanta then to Charlotte.  This is a bit of good news......
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 12:31:59 PM
Latest AFD out of Louisville.  Me thinks me likey the smell of what they cookin'!

Quote
THURSDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS BEGINNING TO SHOW A BIT
MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...MOSTLY TO THE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
WHICH WOULD MEAN AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR THE
CWA AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THIS TRACK...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES NORTH OF BOWLING GREEN UP THROUGH JEFFERSON
COUNTY KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND POINTS EAST
. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HPC AND WILL
TREND HIGHEST QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.

PRECIP TIMING LOOKS TO START IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MAIN PRECIP AXIS
SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING SNOW AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO PUMP HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS
OUT...BUT DO TEND TO OVERDUE THINGS A BIT
AND HAVE STARTED OFF SNOW
ACCUMULATION INTRODUCTION IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH AGAIN THE
FOCUS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE.


STILL IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT A TRACK SHIFT COULD CHANGE SNOW
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSIDERING THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WILL OCCUR
NEARLY 48 HOURS FROM NOW...AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO TAKE A LOOK TO SEE
IF EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN LOW PRESSURE TRACK REMAINS THE NORM IN
THE MODELS.

OK, quick geography lesson.  I-65 runs pretty much north and east from Bowling Green to Jefferson Co. and from Bowling Green, BNA and surrounding areas are pretty much due south.  Notice how they said heavier amounts will be along and east of basically the I-65 corridor.  Does that bode well for us in northern Mid TN that are within a half hour of Bowling Green.  My gut says yes.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 05, 2008, 12:34:56 PM
12z CMC shows similar track to Euro at 12z with primary low heading into North/NE Georgia.  Good track for us folk....

(http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/f60.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 12:37:12 PM
Latest AFD out of Louisville.  Me thinks me likey the smell of what they cookin'!

OK, quick geography lesson.  I-65 runs pretty much north and east from Bowling Green to Jefferson Co. and from Bowling Green, BNA and surrounding areas are pretty much due south.  Notice how they said heavier amounts will be along and east of basically the I-65 corridor.  Does that bode well for us in northern Mid TN that are within a half hour of Bowling Green.  My gut says yes.

Me likey'd it so much I posted the AFD 5 pages ago!!! ;D ;D ;D ;D  Have some bacon, Eric.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 05, 2008, 12:40:40 PM
Last pic I'll post....for now.  12 Ukmet VERY similar track to Euro & Canandian at 60 hours.

(http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/f60.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 05, 2008, 12:40:56 PM
I would like it much better if it came out of Nashville.  I wouldn't put much stock into what L'ville is saying with their AFD when it comes to our weather.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 12:41:08 PM
Me likey'd it so much I posted the AFD 5 pages ago!!! ;D ;D ;D ;D  Have some bacon, Eric.

Sorry.  I can't remember stuff I did 5 minutes ago, not to mention stuff I read 5 PAGES ago!

*takes bacon and suddenly realizes the meaning of life...bacon-flavored snow*
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 12:42:23 PM
I would like it much better if it came out of Nashville.  I wouldn't put much stock into what L'ville is saying with their AFD when it comes to our weather.

Your absolutely right.  But it gives a general idea of what other offices are thinking, especially when ours sits on their collective thumbs when it comes to giving meteorological opinions to the viewing public.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 12:43:06 PM
*takes bacon and suddenly realizes the meaning of life...bacon-flavored snow*

Somehow, ME LIKEY THAT BETTER!(http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y182/ServoBabe/LOVEBACON-1.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 12:43:55 PM
I would like it much better if it came out of Nashville.  I wouldn't put much stock into what L'ville is saying with their AFD when it comes to our weather.

And we do have members that live in KY.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 12:46:12 PM
bacon-flavored snow*

Ok the bacon fetish has gone to far, offically when we think of bacon flavored snow!  :) :-X
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 12:46:55 PM
WOOHOO!  Just noticed I surpassed 800 posts!  WEEEE!!!

Back to the weather...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 12:48:52 PM
WOOHOO!  Just noticed I surpassed 800 posts!  WEEEE!!!


I Just passed 35 POST. Yeah Me! LOL.

Now as Eric says

Back to the weather...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Shelly89 on March 05, 2008, 12:52:24 PM
I have bee visiting the NWS sites from PAH and JKL also, I live in Hadley Ky, Northwest of Bowling Green and what it looks like they are saying is that PAH thinks a lot of snow will fall in the Pennyrile area and JKL thinks it will be an overall large event for their area.  I am waiting to see what LMK is going to say, they are updating later today, at this time, they are saying it is coming, they are waiting to update the where, when and how much.  It looks like if it hold together, it may be a 4-6 inch event here.  Snow can be hard to call until it is at the time of the storm in the area, I would like to see a bit before spring comes.   :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 12:53:29 PM
Ok the bacon fetish has gone to far, offically when we think of bacon flavored snow!  :) :-X
You have much to learn, young padawan.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 12:55:05 PM
I have bee visiting the NWS sites from PAH and JKL also, I live in Hadley Ky, Northwest of Bowling Green and what it looks like they are saying is that PAH thinks a lot of snow will fall in the Pennyrile area and JKL thinks it will be an overall large event for their area.  I am waiting to see what LMK is going to say, they are updating later today, at this time, they are saying it is coming, they are waiting to update the where, when and how much.  It looks like if it hold together, it may be a 4-6 inch event here.  Snow can be hard to call until it is at the time of the storm in the area, I would like to see a bit before spring comes.   :D

It may be a 4-6" event for most everyone if everything verifies.  And yes, I too would like to see some white stuff before spring.  This might very well be our last chance.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 12:55:55 PM
I would like to see a bit before spring comes.   :D


A Bit More  ??? I have seen nothing. I think you have gotten more than plenty. LOL!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 05, 2008, 01:01:41 PM
Quote
And we do have members that live in KY.

I understand that...I am speaking of middle TN weather and folks that live here...nuff on that.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 01:03:27 PM
Davis Nolan's latest post:

Quote
Now the latest on Friday snow chances:

Latest model runs indicate an all rain event on Friday until at least dark. The NAM/WRF doesn’t change precip over to snow until around 3am Saturday morning, while the AVN/GFS changes over around 6pm Friday night. The difference from yesterday is the timing of the changeover. Yesterday, both models had the changeover occuring before noon on Friday. Now they are both much later. But we still will see snow.

Oddly enough, the NAM/WRF’s slower changeover yields higher amounts because the low passes closer to us.

I am always worried when the precip starts as rain and then changes over to snow. Obviously, this can reduce accumulations. However, if this low sets itself up right, we could still see a decent accumulation by Saturday morning. I agree with Jeff that there will be a heavy snowband somewhere in the TN/OH Valley. The track of the low, as usual, will be the key.

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 01:07:37 PM
As noted above the 3-5 12Z Euro is slightly more east with the low. The Euro and GFS appear to be reaching a consensus on the track of the low, at least out to 72 hours which is our window of opportunity. Both models show the low tracking over North Carolina to our east. IMO this is a very favorable path for Middle TN. If we get enough cold air pulled in we are in good shape.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 01:08:27 PM
http://coolwx.com/ptype/

This link seems to agree with Davis with News 2.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 01:13:21 PM
That is a neat little page isn't it Matt?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 01:13:48 PM
<perks hopefully>
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 01:16:01 PM
That is a neat little page isn't it Matt?

I love it. It works perfect for me. Its like reading a book with pop out pictures. My favorite. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 01:22:05 PM
Quote
Now the latest on Friday snow chances:

Latest model runs indicate an all rain event on Friday until at least dark. The NAM/WRF doesn’t change precip over to snow until around 3am Saturday morning, while the AVN/GFS changes over around 6pm Friday night. The difference from yesterday is the timing of the changeover. Yesterday, both models had the changeover occuring before noon on Friday. Now they are both much later. But we still will see snow.

Oddly enough, the NAM/WRF’s slower changeover yields higher amounts because the low passes closer to us.

I am always worried when the precip starts as rain and then changes over to snow. Obviously, this can reduce accumulations. However, if this low sets itself up right, we could still see a decent accumulation by Saturday morning. I agree with Jeff that there will be a heavy snowband somewhere in the TN/OH Valley. The track of the low, as usual, will be the key.

Is the heavy snow band they speak of the "deformation zone"?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Scot on March 05, 2008, 01:31:09 PM
So are any of the 18z models available yet?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 01:39:17 PM
18z NAM should start running now, but won't finish til 230ish.

18z GFS will start running at 330, and we should know what's going on by 4-430.

I for one, hate that I'm gonna be working from 2-8. Hopefully I'll get a little computer time before work starts at the church... get to check in on the 18z runs.

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 05, 2008, 01:54:03 PM
It'll be okay Matt.  I think most everyone is waiting for the next model runs to become available for analysis and some of us are seeing what the local NWS offices (and those in surrounding areas) are going to do.  I would tend to think a few WATCHES/ADVISORIES could go up today (perhaps in AR)...

But it is still a guessing Game!!




Henry Margusity's latest blog at Accuweather ...

"EURO GOING TO GFS SOLUTION.

The morning run of the Euro model has shifted slightly to the east of the track it had last night. It also shows the front running system that the GFS is showing, too. Again, the map issued yesterday to me still looks good now that I am seeing the models coming into agreement. The UKMET and Canadian all seem to have the same solution of a storm running along the coast or slightly inland"

(fingers and toes crossed !!!)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 02:01:24 PM

(fingers and toes crossed !!!)


Cross 'em if you've got 'em!! ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 02:04:06 PM
18z NAM is a hair colder at 18z thursday vs the 12z NAM... come on baby, all snow
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 02:06:38 PM
18z NAM is a hair colder at 18z thursday vs the 12z NAM... come on baby, all snow

A hair colder makes all the difference here in Tennessee, especially in Northwest Counties and the Cumberland Paltue.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Scot on March 05, 2008, 02:17:42 PM
Ah I think I am finally starting to understand the models a little bit better.  Thanks for helping me out folks!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 02:18:29 PM
18z NAM is a hair colder at 18z thursday vs the 12z NAM... come on baby, all snow

It just didn't make sense why a 1030+mb high couldn't shove more cold air down the pipe.  Things are definitely looking up.  I might just start to nibble at this one.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 02:20:01 PM
well in that case if his map looks good then i will get 6 inches plus here in rhea county, lol north of chattanooga yay! major snowstorm :) for me (possibly)!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 02:23:20 PM
18z NAM slams MEG, including metro Memphis. Colder, more precip.

Will be interesting to see if watches go out tonight -- guessing they will wait until tomorrow morning since the models have been all over the place.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 02:23:33 PM
;D

18z NAM is even further west it seems. MEM grab your snow shovels.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 02:25:49 PM
One interesting coincidence (at least to me)....The 1993 March Superstorm hit Middle TN on a Friday night the day before the finals of the girls high school basketball tournament held in the 'Boro. You guessed it....the upcoming storm is due on Friday night and the girls tourney finals are this Saturday night....the progged track of the current low is eerily similiar to 1993 but this storm is nowhere near as potent....please forgive me for my Twilight Zone-ish flashback moment.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 02:27:08 PM
18z NAM= game over BNA
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 02:28:40 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_slp_054m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 02:29:24 PM
you all keep using the nam as a the "great" model
but it blows middle and eastern TN's chances of major snow. but the GFS AND EURO give us good chances....why? lol
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 02:29:35 PM
18z NAM= game over BNA

But the NAM has always trended west with this storm while the other models have kept it east of us.  I tend to want to throw this run out.  Isn't the 6Z and 12Z the most important runs, or is that just with the GFS?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 02:32:56 PM
SHV posting watches for SW Arkansas.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 05, 2008, 02:33:13 PM
18z NAM= game over BNA

So...you've got a model war going on.  Euro, CMC, & Ukie vs. GFS and NAM.  Who do you really want to go with on this one?  It looks to me that the GFS and NAM are having a hard time deciding on whether to phase this storm or not....then you have the Euro, CMC, & Ukmet that do want to phase it.  

I personally would be on the Euro but that's just me.  The GFS and NAM just look odd with them having duel lows.  That to me indicated their having a tough time with this one.

I'm in the Euro camp at this point.  It may lose in the end but that's the model I'm riding....
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 02:35:47 PM
I just posted what the NAM showed. I'm personally not sold on any model right now.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 02:37:34 PM
Comments from the Louisville weather office...

BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INITIALLY FROM THE GULF
THU NIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS AND WRN TN VLYS AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN
THE NRN GULF AND A TROF EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE LOW. NAM IS SLOWER
THAN GFS WITH BOTH UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS FEATURES. WHERE NAM/GFS
DIFFER THE MOST IS IN THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTED IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FRI WITH NAM FARTHER WEST WITH SFC TROF AXIS INTO WRN TN AT
12Z FRI AND GFS SHOWING AXIS INTO ETN AT THAT TIME. THIS IS A
TYPICAL NAM BIAS/ERROR OF DIGGING A SHRTWV TOO MUCH/THEREFORE
SLOWER/MORE WESTWARD REFLECTED LOW LEVEL/SFC FEATURES RESULTING IN A MORE ROBUST SELY LOW LEVEL JET INTO OUR ERN CWA
. GFS SHOWS THIS
SCENARIO FARTHER EAST AND TO A LESSER EXTENT. OUR PREVIOUS FCST WAS
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND WILL FOLLOW THAT LEAD.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 05, 2008, 02:38:03 PM
I just posted what the NAM showed. I'm personally not sold on any model right now.

Oh...I didn't mean that directed and just you.  I probably shouldn't have put that as a response to your statement...instead as a separate reply.  Sorry if you thought I was just singling out you..my bad.  ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 02:38:48 PM
also you have to look at the NAM pushing the low west because of the southeast ridge. the low could track east and give all of TN a snowstorm? lol wake up to a 12"+ snow event lol. wouldnt that be great. 8) HENRY MARGUSITY SAID HE IS STICKING WITH THE GFS IN TRACKING ALONG THE COAST GIVING US SOME SNOW! 6"+-1FT
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 02:38:55 PM
I just posted what the NAM showed. I'm personally not sold on any model right now.

No he's not!  He's a NAM cospirer!  Gosh darn NAM'ers!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 02:42:00 PM
Gfs and Nam seem to be having the most trouble with this. The new 12Z Euro has a good track for us here in Middle Tennessee. The CMC has had this solution for the past couple runs now and the Euro is catching on and seems to have alot better handle than the GFS. The NAM itself has not been good, and it is not the model of choice.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 02:43:10 PM
Gfs and Nam seem to be having the most trouble with this. The new 12Z Euro has a good track for us here in Middle Tennessee. The CMC has had this solution for the past couple runs now and the Euro is catching on and seems to have alot better handle than the GFS. The NAM itself has not been good, and it is not the model of choice.

I say take the NAM out behind the woodshed and teach it a lesson.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 02:43:17 PM
Oh...I didn't mean that directed and just you.  I probably shouldn't have put that as a response to your statement...instead as a separate reply.  Sorry if you thought I was just singling out you..my bad.  ;)

Not a problem. I just wanted to clear up that I wasn't saying I was jumping on the NAM and riding it over the finish line. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 05, 2008, 02:45:06 PM
also you have to look at the NAM pushing the low west because of the southeast ridge. the low could track east and give all of TN a snowstorm? lol wake up to a 12"+ snow event lol. wouldnt that be great. 8) HENRY MARGUSITY SAID HE IS STICKING WITH THE GFS IN TRACKING ALONG THE COAST GIVING US SOME SNOW! 6"+-1FT

WAKE UP!!.. AHAHAHAHH I WILL NOT BE IN BED AT ALL!! LOL!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 02:47:22 PM
HENRY MARGUSITY SAID HE IS STICKING WITH THE GFS IN TRACKING ALONG THE COAST GIVING US SOME SNOW! 6"+-1FT

If that wasn't a typo that was DANG funny! ;D

(How do we repay snow if we're in the negative 6")?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Scot on March 05, 2008, 02:52:24 PM
So when will the other models be released other than the NAM??
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 02:54:55 PM
I have to hand it to all of you, this is a really cool site.  The information is worth more than anyone can imagine.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 05, 2008, 02:55:15 PM
If that wasn't a typo that was DANG funny! ;D

(How do we repay snow if we're in the negative 6")?

 :D We definitely couldn't give it back from this year that's fo sho...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 02:55:53 PM
If that wasn't a typo that was DANG funny! ;D

(How do we repay snow if we're in the negative 6")?

Do what the government does...write another check!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 02:56:10 PM
For our friends in West TN:

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MEMPHIS TN
251 PM CST WED MAR 5 2008

DISCUSSION
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE MID SOUTH WITH ANOTHER 24  TO 30 HOURS OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  TEMPERATURES.      A FULL LATITUDE H5 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.  THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO  THE REGION JUST AS MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF  MEXICO. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A  SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVES INTO GEORGIA.    THE 12 UTC GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR AND  QPF...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE ONLY 12 UTC MODEL OUTLIER. DECIDED TO  ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH  FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BASED ON GENERAL  MODEL CONSENSUS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE  POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...WHILE LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE  POSSIBLE IN OTHER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MS...WESTERN TN AND  EAST CENTRAL AR.      HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON  SATURDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WARMING  TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY  MID WEEK. SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION MAY SEE A CHANCE OF  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 7...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS  FORECAST.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 02:58:06 PM
I have to hand it to all of you, this is a really cool site.  The information is worth more than anyone can imagine.

Glad you're enjoying your stay here.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 02:59:17 PM
I hope to see OHX follow suit soon.  Of course, given their track record, they would probably just issue a Snow Advisory.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2008, 03:02:28 PM
lol.  I think I best refrain from making any comments on this situation at this juncture.

Let it do what it must do.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: joemomma on March 05, 2008, 03:02:47 PM
How's this shaping up for us up on the Plateau?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 03:02:57 PM
*keeps twiddling my thumbs*
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 05, 2008, 03:04:18 PM
I think the weather gods are about to tell us "we will get nothing and like it" lol

Actually I am pretty hopeful on this one.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 03:04:35 PM
How's this shaping up for us up on the Plateau?

If the NAM is right, BNA and the Plateau are in the same boat cussing MEG, but if everyting else is right, MEG will be cussing us.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 03:06:16 PM
If anyone spots Shaq725 talkin' 'bout rain, they had better grab some duct tape because someone's gettin' Soprano'ed.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 05, 2008, 03:06:46 PM
I think the weather gods are about to tell us "we will get nothing and like it" lol

Actually I am pretty hopeful on this one.

 I personally am never giving up hope. Im gonna cross my fingers toes and hair on my purty little head that I get a snow day on Saturday! (Some of us have to work on the weekends!)  ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 03:07:13 PM
I think WSW come out after tonights 00Z run or Late night crew
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 05, 2008, 03:07:26 PM
If anyone spots Shaq725 talkin' 'bout rain, they had better grab some duct tape because someone's gettin' Soprano'ed.

Duct tape?! I got super glue.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 03:07:51 PM
If anyone spots Shaq725 talkin' 'bout rain, they had better grab some duct tape because someone's gettin' Soprano'ed.


LOL
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 05, 2008, 03:08:38 PM
Given the option of taking the NAM or Euro, I'll take the Euro every time.  

I like where Mid-TN is sitting right now.  If it were reversed and the NAM was on our side but the Euro wasnt I would be very worried.  
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 03:10:15 PM
We're going to have to lock down the forums to member only in about an hour due to the server traffic.

Guests, if you haven't registered please do so now so you don't miss any of the discussion here. Thanks.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 03:13:55 PM
Heavy snow area has been downsized...

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 05, 2008, 03:16:24 PM
Heavy snow area has been downsized...

The HPC day 2 map seemed to favor the NAM track.   :-\
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 05, 2008, 03:17:04 PM
Ahhhh Oui ERIC!!.. Defiantly will... Those poor people night shift workers always get the difficult part shafted on them.. Ahhah, seems like every event comes on their watches..
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 03:17:59 PM
The HPC day 2 map seemed to favor the NAM track.   :-\

I think that will change after tonight's runs.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 05, 2008, 03:18:53 PM
I despise the NAM!  >:(  They should've just kept the old ETA and left well enough alone.  It was pretty darn solid in the short range.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 05, 2008, 03:25:58 PM
So its not looking good??
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 03:29:33 PM
So its not looking good??

It's just one run of one model Renee.  ALl the other models still look good for snow.  Let's wait and see if a trend develops with the NAM.  If a trend DOES develop, then we shall start to get worried.  My money still sits with the other models.  I don't hold to much faith in the NAM right now.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 03:30:46 PM
If anyone spots Shaq725 talkin' 'bout rain, they had better grab some duct tape because someone's gettin' Soprano'ed.

Shhhhhh...he's only trying to REVERSE PSYCH the system....Of course, this hasn't worked up until now, but.....he IS still in high school I think, so we may have to just leave it at the duct tape... ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 03:32:08 PM
T -10 minutes till 18z GFS.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 03:32:37 PM
Shhhhhh...he's only trying to REVERSE PSYCH the system....Of course, this hasn't worked up until now, but.....he IS still in high school I think, so we may have to just leave it at the duct tape... ;D

Then it had better be the real duct tape, not the cheap stuff.  The cardboard better have the duck on it.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 03:32:48 PM
Its looking just great Ren :) After speaking with a good friend of mine and looking over the data the general consensus should be for a period of Light/Heavy snow. Here is how everyone needs to look at this. The general Idea is going to be for snow. What makes this event different is the possibility for heavy snow for a extended period of time. At the moment my current first call is going to be 2-4" with 3-6" favorable in areas that just happen to be in the right spot. Snow bands will setup so its just not temps and precip its where the precip falls, what time, ect ect So given I would think that all of Middle Tennessee and West will see a solid 3-4" with areas possibly seeing 6"+ within 40-50 miles from each other.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 03:35:05 PM
So its not looking good??

Still looks okay for the Nashville area; it appears that we are in decent shape regardless of what model is correct (assuming one of them is correct at this moment).  However the heavy snow area has shrunk considerably for the remainder of TN.  I am beginning to buy into the more easterly track of the low, per the GFS.  I am trying not to build up my hopes for anything, though, so if this busts like everything else has I won't be too disappointed.  But there is far more consensus of accumulating snow this time around than any other event this winter.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: cgil64 on March 05, 2008, 03:35:45 PM
If the NAM is right, BNA and the Plateau are in the same boat cussing MEG, but if everyting else is right, MEG will be cussing us.

I'm thoroughly confused. A lot of the local met's are saying there's a chance of snow in MEG, and James Spann said in his latest blog that he thought the main axis of snow would stretch from Little Rock to Memphis and up through NW TN and Kentucky.

Is it trending away from Memphis having a measurable snowfall now? It's a strange system to forecast...one run shows good snow for West TN and the next shows next to nothing.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 03:37:04 PM
So given I would think that all of Middle Tennessee and West will see a solid 3-4" with areas possibly seeing 6"+ within 40-50 miles from each other.

And that would be just spectacular, all things considered!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 03:38:53 PM
And that would be just spectacular, all things considered!

That would definitely send winter out with a bang.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 05, 2008, 03:39:22 PM
I'm with Nashville_WX... your thinking sound good..
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 03:40:26 PM
All I know is MEG NWS is saying 100% snow for DeSoto County and all points northward on Friday.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 03:40:34 PM
Forum will go to members only in 20 minutes.

Guests please register to continue viewing the forums.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 03:41:35 PM
Forum will go to members only in 20 minutes.

Guests please register to continue viewing the forums.


Is the snack bar going to close too.....Geez, anyone got any change???????????
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Scot on March 05, 2008, 03:42:19 PM
I see the 18z GFS is slowing being released on NCEP......anyone noticed any changes so far?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JJJackson on March 05, 2008, 03:45:12 PM
I see the 18z GFS is slowing being released on NCEP......anyone noticed any changes so far?

Through 24, it looks a little slower pushing the precip out of TX.

Through 42, pulls down the cold air just ever so slightly faster. Also, the low moves up into SW Alabama.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 03:45:28 PM
They must have had the intern handle today's OHX AFD...

Quote
 SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER  SAT WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS.  

Hopefully this guy is originally from Buffalo, where "light accums" means 3-5 inches!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 03:45:51 PM
Servo, you need bacon, not snacks.

I am starting to get excited a little about this system. Will be cautious and not issue a call map yet, but will wait until later this evening, if models continue to show snow potential.

Guests - SIGN UP BEFORE RON LOCKS YA OUT!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 03:45:57 PM
Uh oh!

12Z
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_030m.gif)

18Z
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_024m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 05, 2008, 03:47:46 PM
New watches out to the west of here.. :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 03:48:28 PM
At 36. Goin west.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 03:48:51 PM
Looks like 500mb heights are lower
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 03:49:33 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_036m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 03:50:02 PM
Not to worry Ron. Still looking good
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 03:50:36 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_036m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2008, 03:51:16 PM
From Little Rock..Winter Storm Watch out for all but southern Arkansas...4-8 inches in the watch area with up to a foot possible...this includes many counties further south than Memphis
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 03:52:43 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_048m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 03:53:06 PM
18Z btw is the worst model run of the day with no upper air data. offices already lowering temps because models are under doing the cold air in place right now. 500mb vs 850mb looks a bit odd. Looking at 48 hours just makes no sense. This run is def in la la land.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 03:53:15 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_048m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 03:53:47 PM
*is still giggling over "Sopranoed"*
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Scot on March 05, 2008, 03:54:21 PM
What do you mean Nashville WX about the model being the worst run of the day?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 03:54:43 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_054m.gif)

Heavy snow on back side.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 03:55:27 PM
*is still giggling over "Sopranoed"*


 ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 03:56:24 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_054m.gif)

Heavy snow on back side.

Low is still taking a favorable track, but precip looks a little light for me.  MEG on the other hand is getting bombed.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 03:56:45 PM
I'd say after the 0z is out many will be able to begin forecasting accumulations here.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 03:57:13 PM
And remember folks its way to early to nail down total QPF range. The 18Z run has no upper air data and has the poorest Verification out of 4.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 03:57:26 PM
3" BNA, 5" KMEM
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 05, 2008, 03:57:32 PM
We are almost in our window...anyone ready to step up to the plate and make a call?  ;D Or shall we wait until the next run?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 03:57:42 PM
*still shaking head at OHX afternoon AFD* ???
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 03:57:54 PM
Looks like though, the moisture stays around LONGER allowing the colder air to filter in.  That I like.  
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 04:00:41 PM
2-3 inches of snow in Nashville is suggested by the 18z.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 04:01:12 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_060s.gif)

This is the total precip through 60 hours.  Looks like MEG, BNA, and surrounding areas are going to get bombed.  Darker blue, .75 liquid precip.  At a 10:1 ratio at best, looks to be 5-7 inches of the white stuff.  And for once, looks as if the plateau will see LESS than the boys in the holler will see!

And around the CKV area, about 10-12!!  Those numbers figure to be a little high, but at least it gives a pretty good idea that we're still in the game.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 04:01:26 PM
WSW just issued for NW Middle TN.....SEE watch/warning/advisory thread
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JHart on March 05, 2008, 04:03:13 PM
Hmmm... dare I break out the "weather penny" and query the dark forces behind it?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 04:03:53 PM
Snowfall ratios will depend on the temps. 10:1 is actually a safe bet with much higher ratios at times.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 04:06:34 PM
WSW just issued for NW Middle TN.....SEE watch/warning/advisory thread
*dances madly*  whooohooooooooo
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 04:07:15 PM
Hmmm... dare I break out the "weather penny" and query the dark forces behind it?

hee hee...as long as we get "GOOD SNOW JUJU"...Bring it on!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 04:08:46 PM
Quote
We are almost in our window...anyone ready to step up to the plate and make a call?   Or shall we wait until the next run?

3" BNA, 5" KMEM

Already did.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2008, 04:09:00 PM


This is the total precip through 60 hours.  Looks like MEG, BNA, and surrounding areas are going to get bombed.  Darker blue, .75 liquid precip.  At a 10:1 ratio at best, looks to be 5-7 inches of the white stuff.  And for once, looks as if the plateau will see LESS than the boys in the holler will see!

And around the CKV area, about 10-12!!  Those numbers figure to be a little high, but at least it gives a pretty good idea that we're still in the game.

Remember, though, that some of that precip will be rain before it changes over.  ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 04:10:26 PM
Already did.
Ron brought game!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 04:11:33 PM
This is the total precip through 60 hours.  Looks like MEG, BNA, and surrounding areas are going to get bombed.  Darker blue, .75 liquid precip.  At a 10:1 ratio at best, looks to be 5-7 inches of the white stuff.  And for once, looks as if the plateau will see LESS than the boys in the holler will see!

And around the CKV area, about 10-12!!  Those numbers figure to be a little high, but at least it gives a pretty good idea that we're still in the game.

Isn't this valid at midnight Friday?  That would be before the changeover in mid-TN, correct?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 04:12:09 PM
And I was thinking about going home to Clarksville this weekend.  Maybe I'll stay put.

Remember, though, that some of that precip will be rain before it changes over.  ;)

So true.  My apologies for not stating that CRUCIAL piece of info.   ;D ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 04:13:53 PM
Ron brought game!

Has he been in his freezer again, thought he already ate all that venison... ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JHart on March 05, 2008, 04:14:03 PM
The omnisient penny gave me three yes's and four no's for snow Friday night ::)... but I think it is only taunting me because I have to drive to the airport Friday night and pick up an interview candidate.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 04:15:11 PM
Isn't this valid at midnight Friday?  That would be before the changeover in mid-TN, correct?

Your probably right.  Here is the 72 hour projection.  That should put us through to mid-day Saturday.

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_078s.gif)

I do apologize if this isn't right.  I've just been shown the way to the models and I must learn to become one with the models.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2008, 04:15:33 PM
Maybe this will be a respectable finale to a dismal winter... mid 60s next week! (don't shoot the messenger... you know you'll like it. )

I'm still playing this cautious till this time tomorrow at least... and will probably still be cautiously doubtful by this time on Friday.  ;)

But, it is nice to see the possibility.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 04:15:51 PM
The omnisient penny gave me three yes's and four no's for snow Friday night ::)... but I think it is only taunting me because I have to drive to the airport Friday night and pick up an interview candidate.

I say you need a new penny!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 04:17:40 PM
Has he been in his freezer again, thought he already ate all that venison... ;D
Venison.....YUMMMMMM


So long as he left the bacon alone.

Think we should make a Wal Mart/Kroger bacon run before this hits?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2008, 04:17:55 PM
And I was thinking about going home to Clarksville this weekend.  Maybe I'll stay put.

Dude, if you have 4-wheel drive, and Clarksville gets a bigger hit than Nashville, all the more reason to go!  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 04:19:22 PM
First Call. Very Conservative. Hopefully I will become a little more convinced later. I would just like to get within about 24 Hours before jumping on the total snow wagon.

(http://volunteerwx.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/snowtotals5.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 04:20:18 PM
Dude, if you have 4-wheel drive, and Clarksville gets a bigger hit than Nashville, all the more reason to go!  ;D

 ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 05, 2008, 04:22:50 PM
First Call. Very Conservative. Hopefully I will become a little more convinced later. I would just like to get within about 24 Hours before jumping on the total snow wagon.

(http://volunteerwx.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/snowtotals5.jpg)

That's conservative alright........ ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 04:23:08 PM
Think we should make a Wal Mart/Kroger bacon run before this hits?

I do have to go to the grocery store anyways tomorrow...BUT I HAVE BACON!!

"Don't Stay Home Without It!!"
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 04:23:20 PM
Anybody wanna go snow climbing? *grin*
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 04:23:45 PM
Snowman doesn't heart me.... :'(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 04:25:13 PM
<3 servo
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lyngo on March 05, 2008, 04:26:20 PM
I do have to go to the grocery store anyways tomorrow...BUT I HAVE BACON!!

"Don't Stay Home Without It!!"

Just drive to Wendy's and pick up one of these......

(http://www.google.com/images?q=tbn:SyaDhSEfv2wJ:blog.news-)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 04:26:57 PM
Well servo, you know I dont like to get all worked up about these systems and then be all disappointed.
You should turn your attention to that call of Ron's. For Ron to say 3", now that is saying something.  :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 04:27:44 PM
<3 servo

Not even that...just a DUSTING!!!!...sniff...sniff...whimpers in corner...I've never got above a dusting in ANY call map he's done this year..


WHY OH WHY CAN'T I BE A STAR IN SNOWMAN'S CALL MAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 04:27:54 PM
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR DICKSON COUNTY!  ;D

I stop for a minute and pause to think about the rest of middle TN that is not in one.  :(

But I have a feeling that more will be issued  ;D


Now more happy faces for me!
 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 04:28:46 PM
Just drive to Wendy's and pick up one of these......

(http://www.google.com/images?q=tbn:SyaDhSEfv2wJ:blog.news-)

Lyngo speakin' my lingo.... ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: JHart on March 05, 2008, 04:29:49 PM
First Call. Very Conservative. Hopefully I will become a little more convinced later. I would just like to get within about 24 Hours before jumping on the total snow wagon.

(http://volunteerwx.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/snowtotals5.jpg)

I hope your conservatism makes Mike Huckabee look like Al Sharpton. ;)

Most of  my pennies are giving me the same answer... so I think I'll upgrade to the "meteorological nickle".
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 04:30:05 PM
Mmmmm....baconator......
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 04:30:25 PM
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR DICKSON COUNTY!  ;D

I stop for a minute and pause to think about the rest of middle TN that is not in one.  :(

But I have a feeling that more will be issued  ;D


Now more happy faces for me!
 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Yeah, those WSW's will be pushed eastward.  I would fully expect to see ALL of Mid TN in one by the morning.  If not, then I want some of what OHX is on.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 04:31:59 PM
Quote
Not even that...just a DUSTING!!!!...sniff...sniff...whimpers in corner...I've never got above a dusting in ANY call map he's done this year..

So how mush snow have you recieved this year servo?  ;)

I like Huckabee now, thats who I voted for. I will not however vote for another George Bush (John McCain)  :(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Conservative1 on March 05, 2008, 04:35:53 PM
Quote from: lyngo That's conservative alright........ ;D[br /




Somebody called?  ;D


Load 'er up! I'm gonna be the unshaven guy in NE Wilson County standing on his front porch in a T-shirt and boxers with a cup of coffee and a bacon sandwich at 0700, with a grin a mile wide. Watching the snow accumulate...

The tractor is STILL greased, 2 year old's snowsuit is STILL hanging by the door, and I'm still planning to have some redneck fun in this storm. Bring 'er on!


Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 04:36:40 PM
I hope your conservatism makes Mike Huckabee look like Al Sharpton. ;)

Most of  my pennies are giving me the same answer... so I think I'll upgrade to the "meteorological nickle".

You should be warned, that mentioning the possibility of a "dusting" for this event may result in harsh replies, to the extent of even being accused of trolling... I should know.   ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2008, 04:38:05 PM
I like Huckabee now, thats who I voted for. I will not however vote for another George Bush (John McCain)  :(

Hmm... well, too bad Huckabee officially dropped out last night.

Looks like McCain is your man, unless you go Democrat or third party.  ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 04:38:30 PM
You should be warned, that mentioning the possibility of a "dusting" for this event may result in harsh replies, to the extent of even being accused of trolling... I should know.   ;D


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 05, 2008, 04:38:39 PM
Snowman, I'm thinking you are being WAYYY too conservative..
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 04:38:47 PM
Let them reply harshly to me and see what happens.  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 04:39:17 PM
Quote from: lyngo That's conservative alright........ ;D[br /




Somebody called?  ;D


Load 'er up! I'm gonna be the unshaven guy in NE Wilson County standing on his front porch in a T-shirt and boxers with a cup of coffee and a bacon sandwich at 0700, with a grin a mile wide. Watching the snow accumulate...

The tractor is STILL greased, 2 year old's snowsuit is STILL hanging by the door, and I'm still planning to have some redneck fun in this storm. Bring 'er on!

LMAO  :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 05, 2008, 04:40:22 PM
BUT CONSERVATIVE IS GOOD AT A TIME LIKE THIS!! LOL
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 04:41:29 PM
Ryan, Read the part where it says revision likely. I just am not ready to jump off the bridge yet. Better safe than sorry. Too bad it will hit when ya will be off work anyways though. >:(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 04:41:47 PM
Let them reply harshly to me and see what happens.  ;D

*AND THE CROWD ROARS*
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 04:43:02 PM
BUT CONSERVATIVE IS GOOD AT A TIME LIKE THIS!! LOL
That's what they said back during the 2000 election, too.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 04:43:24 PM
*AND THE CROWD ROARS*
.........roar.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 04:44:04 PM
So servo, exactly how much snow have you had this year?  ;)  :D

Ha Ha wxrocker, Yeah, I will be voting Obama in 08!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 04:46:45 PM
So servo, exactly how much snow have you had this year?  ;)  :D


(http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/72324165.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=D7D5341DF8CB2C3600EF30F3E62C030B284831B75F48EF45)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Conservative1 on March 05, 2008, 04:48:39 PM
Obama? Yeah... how about THIS quote...

"Yes We MIGHT!"

Kinda applies to our current situation.

 8)


So servo, exactly how much snow have you had this year?  ;)  :D

Ha Ha wxrocker, Yeah, I will be voting Obama in 08!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2008, 04:49:55 PM
Well I've been sitting here tossing out every model I come to that didn't show good accumulations for the Plateau . . . and then I realized I had thrown them all out and didn't have any left. So now I'm hugging the Margusity Accuweather map for all it's worth. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 04:50:05 PM
(http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/72324165.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=D7D5341DF8CB2C3600EF30F3E62C030B284831B75F48EF45)
(http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l128/suitemindcrime/cwm27.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 04:57:07 PM
Well I've been sitting here tossing out every model I come to that didn't show good accumulations for the Plateau . . . and then I realized I had thrown them all out and didn't have any left. So now I'm hugging the Margusity Accuweather map for all it's worth. ;D

That's a good one to hold on to, cause he probably won't make any changes to it until long after the snow has stopped flying!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 05:08:37 PM
Are we there yet papa smurf?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 05:25:17 PM
The 0Z run of the GFS is the most important one of the entire season. Of course I may be saying the exact same thing tomorrow at the exact same time.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 05:32:17 PM
lol sorry bout that type O. :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: WXRocker on March 05, 2008, 05:36:33 PM
Type O?  <perk!!>
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 05:44:02 PM
lol it was a couple pages back lol off topic.
i want snow her ein east tennessee but yall are talking like i wont get any :(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Scot on March 05, 2008, 05:45:09 PM
So when will the 0z models be released?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 05, 2008, 05:46:36 PM
Between 9:30 and 10:00 tonight.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 05:55:22 PM
east tennessee in for any snow?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 05:59:21 PM
Maybe a little, not like portions of west tennessee though.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 06:22:31 PM
Well if we don't get much snow at least Memphis (less snow than us) could get some decent accumulation. They deserve it.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 06:23:04 PM
Ron Howes said "The best chance of accumulating snow will be in the Ohio River Valley north of Paducah close to Owensboro."  I just about laughed out loud.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 06:24:13 PM
Wow, that would happen to us.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 06:59:30 PM
WHEW!  That was scary...Anywho...watching the THREE local Mets.

Lisa Patton MOST EXCITED about impending snow...

Ron Howes, mentioned WSW to west and said "some snow possible light accum."

Guy-who-I-don't-know on Channel 4 DIDN'T MENTION WSW and said possible dusting to an inch.


So......there ya have it folks.

 :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2008, 07:01:37 PM
east tennessee in for any snow?

Henry Margusity says so. ;D That's why I have decided to toss out all of today's model runs. Cause Accuweather is always right. :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 07:04:09 PM
Sorry for the problem everyone. Server went down for a bit.


Hopefully we'll make it through this with no more downtime!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 07:04:43 PM
i know henry said that we(east tn) would get a major snowstorm lol.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2008, 07:07:49 PM
Incidentally, if this does play out as a big snow-maker for West and Middle TN, the last 2 major snow events in Tennessee (January 2003 and March 2008) will have been West and/or Middle TN events, so I don't want to hear anymore talk about how the Plateau gets all the snow. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 07:10:20 PM
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

The amounts show us not getting as much, but I believe the accumatlion amounts will move more eastward. And give us a little more than this shows.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: shaq725 on March 05, 2008, 07:13:04 PM
Wow this thread got long.  :o
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 07:16:59 PM
I will post an update to my call map after tonights 00z model runs. I am suspecting I will have to come up off my conservative call either tonight or tomorrow.  ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 07:19:13 PM
I will post an update to my call map after tonights 00z model runs. I am suspecting I will have to come up off my conservative call either tonight or tomorrow.  ;)

One can only hope!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 07:19:44 PM
T -1 Hour for 0z NAM products
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 07:22:38 PM
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

The amounts show us not getting as much, but I believe the accumatlion amounts will move more eastward. And give us a little more than this shows.

That map is for Monday - does it account for snow melt by then?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 07:22:55 PM
Wow, I'm not gonna even consider a forecast map at MTWC for the next event until tomorrow night. In my opinion there is way too much uncertainty to be forecasting snow totals at this time.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 07:25:26 PM
Hey to all! I have lurked on this forum all winter but just had to come out today and say that this is a great forum and has alot of wonderful information. I have learned alot from you all and love the sense of humor and love all the comments you all have here.  Snow or no snow, this is a really cool place to hang.  
P.S. Stay away from the Kroger's in Dickson, its already crazy there.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 07:26:47 PM
Thanks for posting Beth!

I hope you got some bacon at Kroger's before it was all snatched up. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: shaq725 on March 05, 2008, 07:27:51 PM
This will have to happen, since its coming on a weekend.  ::)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 07:28:06 PM
WELCOME BETH!!!!!!  Enjoy the forum, yes...some of us are a little insane...and by "US", I mean ME.....(and my eleventy personalities)...

As long as you have bacon, you are fine.  I DO have to go to the grocery tomorrow, but figure it won't be crazy here.

I hope.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 07:29:36 PM
Oh yeah,,I definetly stocked up on the Bacon, I knew I would need it, that was one of biggest lessons I have learned here! ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 07:29:46 PM
Hey to all! I have lurked on this forum all winter but just had to come out today and say that this is a great forum and has alot of wonderful information. I have learned alot from you all and love the sense of humor and love all the comments you all have here.  Snow or no snow, this is a really cool place to hang.  
P.S. Stay away from the Kroger's in Dickson, its already crazy there.

Welcome to the forum Beth!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 07:30:22 PM
Oh yeah,,I definetly stocked up on the Bacon, I knew I would need it, that was one of biggest lessons I have learned here! ;D

Young Padawan learned the way of the bacon she has.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: shaq725 on March 05, 2008, 07:31:23 PM
Welcome Beth,

Can someone explain why Clarksville high for Friday will be 33, while Nashvilles 44
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 07:33:24 PM
Because the low will whatever it can to avoid dropping snow in Nashville. They do that a lot. This year their excuse is a southeast ridge.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 07:35:55 PM
Can someone explain why Clarksville high for Friday will be 33, while Nashvilles 44

Cold air and snow will already be happening in Clarksville....and we will be standing with signs in and around the basin saying "Will be mildly amusing for Snow"
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 07:36:32 PM
Thanks for the Welcomes!  I also learned my snowy bird is too big. Trying to make him a little smaller. Oh and he was last winter's birdie. Took with what small amount snow we had then.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 07:39:06 PM
Welcome Beth,

Can someone explain why Clarksville high for Friday will be 33, while Nashvilles 44
I don't think we'll make it that high.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 07:39:56 PM
Gorgeous picture, Beth.  I LOVE taking pics of birdies.  Saw my first bluebird of the season yesterday, WAS VERY SURPRISED!  But the cardinals are LOVERLY against the stark gray of winter.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 07:40:28 PM
peeking into the land of voodoo. lookie here on march,17th. i have the feeling winter isnt over by a longshot. more troubles down the everturning road of the southeast :)
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12_county288.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 07:47:50 PM
Thanx Servocrow. I saw a Bluebird too last week when we had our little ice/snow/sun day. And saw a Robin on saturday, guess spring isn't too far away.
I just Love the suspense of wondering what is actually going to happen with this impending weather. So many predictions but only Mother Nature knows the truth right now.  ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 07:48:37 PM
Here comes the NAM!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 07:50:07 PM
Here comes the NAM!

DUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 07:51:10 PM
More suspense,,the NAM!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 07:52:02 PM
Oh god, the NAM
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: toastido on March 05, 2008, 07:52:11 PM
Looks like it's gonna be a good one.. although might be slightly further east..
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 07:53:07 PM
If I could when I posted "here comes the NAM" it would have been funny if I put the Jaws theme music in the background.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 07:54:30 PM
Yeah,,the Jaws theme would have been good. OK,,East, but Dickson will still get lotz of snow too?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 07:55:29 PM
Ok ok, this afternoon everyone was excited about a good snow in Nashville and the surrounding area.  Then, it stunk, so to speak lol, channel 5 & 4 downplayed everything with the exception of New 2, now come on guys, I understand the weather somewhat.  Earlier, the NAM was downplayed due to the fact that it wasn't a good model to trust. Now?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 07:56:10 PM
omg move easttttttt.
come on i want a snowstorm!
lol chattanooga wants snow!
and lots of it.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 07:58:27 PM
0z NAM coming out now. Out to 18.

Looks a bit further west to me and a little weaker.... we shall see
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:01:44 PM
A little faster as well. duh...... duh....... duh..... duh....duh..duh.duh.duh!!!! (jaws)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 08:02:27 PM
*Looks at Clay's logo and squints* << Cubs Fan
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Bridget on March 05, 2008, 08:03:06 PM
Ok ok, this afternoon everyone was excited about a good snow in Nashville and the surrounding area.  Then, it stunk, so to speak lol, channel 5 & 4 downplayed everything with the exception of New 2, now come on guys, I understand the weather somewhat.  Earlier, the NAM was downplayed due to the fact that it wasn't a good model to trust. Now?

I imagine the excitement for the new run has to do with wanting to see if it is falling in line with the other models.

You're just as negative on the nashvillewx.com blog... have some faith, Phil.

And hey, folks...  New here... just checkin in.  :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 08:04:28 PM
WELCOME BRIDGET!!!

Enjoy the forum!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:04:54 PM
Welcome to the forum Bridget!

We've all got snow faith here.... and bacon. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 08:05:25 PM
LOL I beggin your pardon Bridget :)  I am an optimist! Welcome :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:06:46 PM
WOW. WAY West!

Snow cancel
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:07:08 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_030m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 08:07:28 PM
Welcome Bridget. Ya gotta love the bacon here for sure!!! I am new too.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:07:36 PM
Actually Ron, I believe the SFC Low is a farther south. Not much, but enough to make a difference. We'll see. Phil, the Cubs are a pretty good team, just look at all the championships you guys have gotten over the years! (sorry I had to crack that one)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:07:48 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_850_030m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 08:08:06 PM
Glad I am playing conservative.  ;) May have to leave call map alone. Deal or no deal time. Will consult GFS Later.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:08:46 PM
Never mond Ron my eye were playin tricks on me.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 08:09:22 PM
Snow Cancelled,,,what,,no way!!!  Come on Ron,,please don't say that!!!  ???
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:09:30 PM
Clay would you please stop hitting the refresh button on the NCEP site. I'm trying to load these images.

LOL! You know you were.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 08:10:14 PM
No snow, no championships, pretty dismal here. LOL
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:11:51 PM
Actually I was hitting the refresh button at Eastern US WX. It loads 6 hours faster which is better for me CAUSE I'M IMPATIENT!! :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 08:12:01 PM
NAM's got to be smokin' crack... it's the outlier, waaaaay west of the others.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 08:12:15 PM
Like Sands Through The Hourglass....

(http://www.petitionspot.com/uploads/26008-dool.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 08:12:47 PM
Clay would you please stop hitting the refresh button on the NCEP site. I'm trying to load these images.

LOL! You know you were.

Actually that was me!  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 08:13:02 PM
NAM's got to be smokin' crack... it's the outlier, waaaaay west of the others.

I like your thinkin'....
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 08:14:18 PM
NAM must need some bacon or something. Crack is no good!!! :o
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 08:15:11 PM
Ron Jerrel

When you say snow Way West
West Like DICKSON
OR WEST LIKE MEMPHIS
OR WEST LIKE ARKANASAS
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 08:15:21 PM
I just cannot imagine the NAM verifying, or for that matter the other models jumping on this solution.  I could be wrong, but if this thing moves that far west this late in the game, it would undoubtedly be the ugliest model shift I have ever seen.

Until next week's storm.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:15:33 PM
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06_county042.gif)

Winter cancel.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 08:16:03 PM
NAM must need some bacon or something. Crack is no good!!! :o

Beth has figured out the NAM's prob....It is suffering from HBD, High Bacon Deficiency.

I'm sure it is serious.  HELP IT SOMEONE!! :o
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:16:21 PM
West like Arkansas
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 08:16:24 PM
Ron Jerrel

When you say snow Way West
West Like DICKSON
OR WEST LIKE MEMPHIS
OR WEST LIKE ARKANASAS

I'd say Tulsa west.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 08:16:32 PM
I'm calling the cops on NAM
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 08:16:42 PM
Crack is no good!!! :o


Crack is No good, unless that makes the snow drought change around, then I will gladly provide some to Mother Nature.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 08:17:09 PM
Quote
Ron Jerrel

When you say snow Way West
West Like DICKSON
OR WEST LIKE MEMPHIS
OR WEST LIKE ARKANASAS

He meant Dickson and White Bluff,,I am sure of that!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:17:20 PM
I just cannot imagine the NAM verifying, or for that matter the other models jumping on this solution.  I could be wrong, but if this thing moves that far west this late in the game, it would undoubtedly be the ugliest model shift I have ever seen.

Until next week's storm.
That's just what I was thinking at one point that low was painted in the Gulf!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 08:18:05 PM
I'd say Tulsa west.


That has to be a hiccup. RIGHT?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 08:18:19 PM
Ron Jerrel

When you say snow Way West
West Like DICKSON
OR WEST LIKE MEMPHIS
OR WEST LIKE ARKANASAS

West like, west of TN.  'Nuff said.

But the NAM's smokin' crack, so don't worry about it.   I hope like **** I don't eat my words in an hour when we see the GFS.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 05, 2008, 08:18:43 PM
Beth has figured out the NAM's prob....It is suffering from HBD, High Bacon Deficiency.
Are you sure it's not: Has Been Drinking, Hypophosphatemic Bone Disease, or Hemoglobin--Delta Locus? (thanks google  ;D)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: davisjs on March 05, 2008, 08:19:26 PM
Hi, I am a newbie poster, but have visited this site often. What I am wondering is why is everyone consulting the NAM at this point and saying things like snow cancel. Isnt the GFS generally more reliable? And it has snow coming..and also, don't we have to look at multiple model runs to completely rule out snow? Just curious.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 08:19:30 PM
NAM needs a good butt switchin'...

Ya'll know what kind of switchin' I'm talking about.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:19:42 PM
LOL! that was one heck of a google search Jake!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:19:50 PM
I have just made a new enemy today! His name is North American Mezoscale! lol
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 08:20:51 PM
Hi, I am a newbie poster, but have visited this site often. What I am wondering is why is everyone consulting the NAM at this point and saying things like snow cancel. Isnt the GFS generally more reliable? And it has snow coming..and also, don't we have to look at multiple model runs to completely rule out snow? Just curious.

Welcome to the forum Davis.  We're just having fun with the NAM.  We know it's been the outlier for a while now.  Glad to have you as a member!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 08:21:40 PM
Are you sure it's not: Has Been Drinking, Hypophosphatemic Bone Disease, or Hemoglobin--Delta Locus? (thanks google  ;D)

*snickers at Jake*

No....don't think those are it..,..and PLUS it's WEST...WAY WEST...like MAE WEST....

I think someone should call the sheriff on it...OR TELL IT'S MOTHER!!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 05, 2008, 08:21:52 PM
LOL! that was one heck of a google search Jake!!!
Nah...this site helped: http://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/HBD

(proceed w/ discussion... :D)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:22:01 PM
Hi, I am a newbie poster, but have visited this site often. What I am wondering is why is everyone consulting the NAM at this point and saying things like snow cancel. Isnt the GFS generally more reliable? And it has snow coming..and also, don't we have to look at multiple model runs to completely rule out snow? Just curious.

The GFS has been performing better lately. I'm saying cancel is what this NAM run is saying. I'm not going to change my forecast until I see the 0z GFS. If it's further west too then I'll say let's move on to Spring.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 08:22:08 PM
make that two. LOL
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 08:22:23 PM
LOL! that was one heck of a google search Jake!!!

Amen to that Ron Jarrell
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:22:31 PM
Hi, I am a newbie poster, but have visited this site often. What I am wondering is why is everyone consulting the NAM at this point and saying things like snow cancel. Isnt the GFS generally more reliable? And it has snow coming..and also, don't we have to look at multiple model runs to completely rule out snow? Just curious.
We haven't really yet. The NAM is the first of many models to come out in the evening(way before the GFS). It's kinda like getting a taste of the ice cream before you get the whole scoop.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 08:24:31 PM
Does the Nam not like BACON?  I think GFS likes it alot!!! ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:25:10 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_048m.gif)

Memphis congrats on the changeover.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 08:25:38 PM
We haven't really yet. The NAM is the first of many models to come out in the evening(way before the GFS). It's kinda like getting a taste of the ice cream before you get the whole scoop.

Can I get another flavor?!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 08:25:58 PM
Down with NAM :'( Down with NAM  :'( Down with NAM  :'(

The riot has formed, we need torches and spears. Who is coming along?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 05, 2008, 08:26:11 PM
I don't want to call it quits on winter though.. :(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: lavette on March 05, 2008, 08:26:25 PM
Wow! you guys (& ladies) are busy on here tonight.
Thought I'd drop in to see what you had to say about our winter precip chances & it looks like I have quite a few pages to read!  :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 08:26:47 PM
Down with NAM :'( Down with NAM  :'( Down with NAM  :'(

The riot has formed, we need torches and spears. Who is coming along?

If your're not running point, I am!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:26:59 PM
I don't want to call it quits on winter though.. :(

According to your username you do. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 08:27:04 PM
ok so gfs starts running at what time?
10:00 EST right
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 08:27:10 PM
An angry mob goes after the NAM

(http://vwt.d2g.com:8081/vwt.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:27:30 PM
Hey if you don't like the taste then don't eat any of the ice cream. (that analogy made no sense)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:27:53 PM
Wow! you guys (& ladies) are busy on here tonight.
Thought I'd drop in to see what you had to say about our winter precip chances & it looks like I have quite a few pages to read!  :)

Don't worry about starting at page 1. It's mostly bacon posts anyway.  :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 08:28:28 PM
I got my spears ready, Matt!!! >:(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:28:43 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_054m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 08:28:59 PM
An angry mob goes after the NAM

(http://vwt.d2g.com:8081/vwt.jpg)




ITS MY MOB! I look so good in that picture.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: davisjs on March 05, 2008, 08:29:14 PM
Well..I get what you guys are saying..maybe it is just my Metereology professors at UAH getting to my head, but overanalysis of individual model runs isnt too useful..although it is a 0z. By the way, for those of you who are not in college yet..if you take a metereology class, you will be hooked forever, I highly recommend it ! lol
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:30:18 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_054m.gif)
Well I can complain with that changeover to snow. Good job Servo. I think you scared the NAM back to snow.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:31:37 PM
Yeah, look for trends, never take 1 run as the gospel.

Most of us are kidding about the snow cancel off 1 run. It would just be so much easier if everything agreed and gave us a snowstorm. But alas, we live in TN.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 08:32:25 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_054m.gif)

Wow...that's interesting...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 05, 2008, 08:33:21 PM
If we could get some cold air in here, we would be the ones getting slammed.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:33:45 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_060m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 08:36:09 PM
Good thing it got in line sort-of...

I was about join the angry mob and kick it's Nammy-headed butt!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:37:29 PM
Waiting on GFS.

Smoke em if you got em.

Unless you don't like smoked bacon then don't smoke it.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 08:43:42 PM
GFS will be good, as the MOB theory is scaring it straight!!! :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:45:31 PM
1 hour until GFS products come out.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:45:46 PM
We need to like get some cheerleaders and a band to cheer on the GFS. NAM vs GFS. lol
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 08:46:59 PM
I know this is off the discussion, but one quick question, how do you add a logo? Thanks :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 08:47:50 PM
And of course I sold my Cheerleading outfit in the yard sale last week!! Dang!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:48:07 PM
1 hour until GFS products come out.
1 hours until this place goes nuts. It'll either be a riot or a party.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:50:03 PM
And of course I sold my Cheerleading outfit in the yard sale last week!! Dang!!!
What would the neighbors think. Some girl staring at a computer screen and yelling GO TEAM!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 08:50:20 PM
I know this is off the discussion, but one quick question, how do you add a logo? Thanks :)

Go to Profile at the top of the page. Click. Upload avatar.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 08:51:27 PM
Well, actually it would be me screaming go GFS!!!   ::)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 08:53:32 PM
I know it was mentioned earlier, but gorgeous pic of the cardinal beth. Welcome to the zone. Have some complimentary bacon courtesy of the staff.  ;D

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 08:54:02 PM
** BITING NAILS **

(http://www.otrplotspot.com/CD%20ARTWORK/Suspense_cd_01.JPG)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 08:54:27 PM
One thing also that the models tend to do is underestimate low level cold. Early today surface temps were below forecast sounding. With very good radiation cooling temps are going to drop like a rock tomorrow night and into the morning hours. I honestly think that we are going to get some cold air in here before what is being shown now. Tomorrow will be a day of watching things progress. Tonights 00Gfs run will show something I hope very interesting. Models should start to zoom in on how it wants to place the low pressure and once we get get sooner we can compare and see.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 08:55:27 PM
Dont think anyone has posted this yet. Interesting.

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/graphic/now/outlooksmall.png)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 08:57:19 PM
1-2 inches, bullcrap! Little Rock could get 6 inches or more of snow!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 08:57:39 PM
Ron, thanks a bunch!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 08:57:51 PM
I know it was mentioned earlier, but gorgeous pic of the cardinal beth. Welcome to the zone. Have some complimentary bacon courtesy of the staff.

Thankx for the compliment on my birdie Snowman. And I do love the Bacon!!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 08:58:05 PM
Not a bad map but I would up accumulations to 2-4" and 4+ Inches to the northwest
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 08:58:45 PM
Lets hope this is the case when the precip arrives late Friday.  :)

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
805 PM CST WED MAR 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM BROAD WESTERN US TROUGH. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH THIN CI PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME. CLOUDS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON TEMPS AND EXPECT THEY MAY DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN ONGOING FORECAST. WILL MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO
TEMPS...WITH NO CHANGES OTHERWISE.[/
quote]
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 08:59:15 PM
Good, Snowman!  I usually check for something new there several times a day, but considering what wasn't coming out of the office, I didn't bother... OOPS!!  Interesting indeed!

*trying to stay around for another hour*
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 08:59:28 PM
Not a bad map but I would up accumulations to 2-4" and 4+ Inches to the northwest

NORTHWEST COUNTIES ROCK!  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 09:00:02 PM
The Nws office I feel is very very hesitant to issue a WSW for our area. Given the current depiction of models, its hard to go out on the limb, but there major bust potential if they do not let people know. We had this happen in 03.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 09:00:22 PM
NAM's solution looks funky to me.

We need that cold air to move its tail, get on down here a little early.

Any snow situation is a wait and see deal. Sometimes I wish we didn't have models. Cause we know that even if they show something good, its no guarantee its going to happen that way.

Almost nowcasting time though. 24 more hours and I'll be vigorously checking the south mississippi valley loop from nws
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 09:01:00 PM
Wow, a Cubs icon and a Cardinals icon back to back, thats like mixing warm and cold air... it is gonna get stormy in here! lol
Cards 5, Fish 3 top of the ninth. YEAH BABY!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 09:04:28 PM
I couldn't help myself Clay!!! LOL
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 09:04:37 PM
Yeah, but I like the Cubs too,,Clay!!!  

Servocrow- trying to stay up another hour too, but 5 a.m. comes way to early for me. 8)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: David on March 05, 2008, 09:05:14 PM
Here is my call !!!
(http://nashvilleforums.com/images/lawn.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 09:05:20 PM
Quote
The Nws office I feel is very very hesitant to issue a WSW for our area. Given the current depiction of models, its hard to go out on the limb, but there major bust potential if they do not let people know. We had this happen in 03.

Well Nashvillewx, I am sure they remember the event not that long ago when they posted heavy snow warnings for most of the mid-state and it rained all night, so they prolly out to be hesitant. I would rather them be conservative, than to get everyone in a up roar and then nothing come about.

But yeah, they will hold off until they are forced to issue winter products. (IMO)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowwisher on March 05, 2008, 09:09:09 PM
Well, as you know by now, I am kind of clueless  ;D   So, if the **** does come, will it be early Friday or late?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 09:09:32 PM
Yeah, but I like the Cubs too,,Clay!!!  

Servocrow- trying to stay up another hour too, but 5 a.m. comes way to early for me. 8)

Clay's not in the Card boat by himself...Go Cards!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 09:10:02 PM
Looks like late Friday. Maybe afternoon for Northwest counties.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 09:10:35 PM
This is great!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 09:11:24 PM
Being born in Saint Louis, of course I am a fan of the 2006 World Series Champs. Go Cards!!  8)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 09:14:07 PM
Late Friday would be good! Preferably after 3 p.m. It make my commute from Crashville to Dickson easier!!! :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 09:15:39 PM
3 to 2 Cards in front of Chicago!!!!! Any other Cubs fans out there? Snowman, wouldn't it be nice to be in St Louis this winter. They've received over 30 inches of snow! St. Louis is one of my favorite places to visit. I drive up a ballgame every Summer with family and friends.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 09:16:19 PM
Well, you just need to keep an eye on it Beth. It will be kinda touch and go.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 09:17:01 PM
 ;D Hey Everyone. Are you not so excited! We loose an hour of sleep saturday.  ;D

(http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h47/curiousmaster/SpringForward.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clarence on March 05, 2008, 09:17:41 PM
Dave, I am liking your call...I tend to agree.  Everything just seems to be trending that way.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 09:18:06 PM
Beth, you live in Clarksville?

I think she meant NASHVILLE....
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 09:18:16 PM
Yeah Clay, I have family from Kansas City to Saint Louis. They have all had a pretty good winter so far. I am trying to get some pictures from them to share on the site.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 09:18:31 PM
Here is my call !!!
(http://nashvilleforums.com/images/lawn.jpg)

Down with David
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 09:18:59 PM
;D Hey Everyone. Are you not so excited! We loose an hour of sleep saturday.  ;D

(http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h47/curiousmaster/SpringForward.jpg)


boooooooooooooo..................hisssssssss ssssssssssssssssssssssss
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: toastido on March 05, 2008, 09:20:49 PM
I wonder if this album is any good...

(http://www.gwndragonboat.com/pub/images/Cancel%20Winter.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 09:20:58 PM
Eric- I live in Dickson, work in Nashville(Crashville)

Thanx Servocrow, my eyes will be watching weather closely,,leaving at the first sign of snow falling and sticking!!! Can't get stuck in the big city,,my cardinals will be calling me to come home.  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 09:21:54 PM
Here is my forecast for "the day after tomorrow" (clever huh?)
(http://www.rubinville.com/dailydave/uploaded_images/day%20after%20tomorrow-765950.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 09:23:39 PM
Here is my forecast for "the day after tomorrow" (clever huh?)
(http://www.rubinville.com/dailydave/uploaded_images/day%20after%20tomorrow-765950.jpg)

HAH! 
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 09:23:50 PM
I wonder if this album is any good...

(http://www.gwndragonboat.com/pub/images/Cancel%20Winter.jpg)

Most likely not, but I bet it was recorded in Nashville! I have no doubts about that.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 09:24:01 PM
Eric- I live in Dickson, work in Nashville(Crashville)

Thanx Servocrow, my eyes will be watching weather closely,,leaving at the first sign of snow falling and sticking!!! Can't get stuck in the big city,,my cardinals will be calling me to come home.  ;D

I am very grateful I don't have to make a commute...I don't have the patience for it like I did when I was younger.  Just getting the boys back and forth to school is enough to wear me down!!

Oh....and the trips to re-up the bacon supply ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 09:24:40 PM
Just so everyone doesn't confuse me with the EVIL David, here's my call:

(http://www.mrfs.net/trips/2002/Switzerland/Jungfrau/sledding.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 05, 2008, 09:25:13 PM
Who won the division last year  *COUGH*
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 09:26:35 PM
Just so everyone doesn't confuse me with the EVIL David, here's my call:

(http://www.mrfs.net/trips/2002/Switzerland/Jungfrau/sledding.jpg)

You forgot to add:

"WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 09:26:44 PM
Quote
Posted by: Phil In Scottsboro  
Insert Quote
Who won the division last year  *COUGH*


 ::)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: StormNine on March 05, 2008, 09:26:53 PM
  Wow this is amazing so it does look like we get a good snowfall esp NW Mid TN counties snowbanding looks to occur to.  SO if you are to get under a snowband watch out 6-12 inches could fall in your area esp from Nashville west.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 09:27:52 PM
Who won the division last year  *COUGH*


 ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 09:28:22 PM
Now, Stormnine, dont promise these people that.  ;D You know better.  ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 09:28:55 PM
Man were on a picture frenzy, anyone got anymore as we wait the next 35 minutes for the next model.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: toastido on March 05, 2008, 09:29:07 PM
Most likely not, but I bet it was recorded in Nashville! I have no doubts about that.

Actually, it is really good.. (IMO)

Here's their myspace with the full album available for listen:  http://www.myspace.com/cancelwinter (http://www.myspace.com/cancelwinter)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: StormNine on March 05, 2008, 09:29:47 PM
  Sorry I cant help myself i'm a Snow lover.  I get little excited maype just maype we get lucky and don't bust.  
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: StormNine on March 05, 2008, 09:31:07 PM
Then I guess we can on are way to spring or is there another.  Me personally I could really like this system or poss. not like it
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 09:31:41 PM
 Sorry I cant help myself i'm a Snow lover.  I get little excited maype just maype we get lucky and don't bust.  

I firmly believe that the Snow Gods are with us on this one!!!  
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Eric on March 05, 2008, 09:32:00 PM

 ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)

Who's won a ring in the past 100 years?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 09:32:33 PM
Quote
Posted on: Today at 09:29:47 PMPosted by: StormNine  
Insert Quote
  Sorry I cant help myself i'm a Snow lover.  I get little excited maype just maype we get lucky and don't bust.
 

Well I was very conservative this afternoon, but the more I review the data the more confident I get. So ya never know. I might put a 3 inch category on my call map tonight.  ;)  :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 09:33:05 PM
Looking at the latest SREF is see why they did not put the WSW out in nashville. Its kinda funny that is NAM based and that OHX forecast right now is more along the lines of the NAM.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 09:33:27 PM
Quote
Who's won a ring in the past 100 years?

AMEN!!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 09:34:44 PM
 

Well I was very conservative this afternoon, but the more I review the data the more confident I get. So ya never know. I might put a 3 inch category on my call map tonight.  ;)  :D

What do you put Dickson into? ???
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 09:35:56 PM
Who's won a ring in the past 100 years?
lol!
 Who won IT ALL 10 ten times.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 09:36:55 PM
Matt, click on my link to my blog, and my call map will be the latest entry on the blog. Take a look! It will change likely.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 09:38:38 PM
Matt, click on my link to my blog, and my call map will be the latest entry on the blog. Take a look! It will change likely.

Put Dickson into a 4 inch, and you will receive a truck load of bacon.  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: StormNine on March 05, 2008, 09:38:48 PM
  GFS movie has begun it is rated R for excitement purposes.  
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 09:38:51 PM
Gfs already running, So far I am like what I see everyone. 500mb looks tigher and slighty south.

Also for you worrying about the NAM

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

...ELONGATED SHRTWV NEARING THE WEST COAST ON THU...

COMPARISON OF THE NAM MID LVL RH ANALYSIS TO WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THE MODEL MAY BE UP TO 50-75 NM TOO FAR WWD WITH PORTIONS OF THE
SHRTWV.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 09:39:13 PM
gfs out to 12
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 09:39:44 PM
Looking east @ 500mb.

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_012m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 09:40:34 PM
You will soon learn matt that I am very conservative, just ask servocrow.  :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 09:40:44 PM
 GFS movie has begun it is rated R for excitement purposes.  

We don't call it weather pr0n for nothin'..... ::)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 09:40:56 PM
Here comes the GFS. Someone play the jaws theme song again!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 09:41:02 PM
Ron did you see my above post on the NAM run?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 09:42:12 PM
24 not good. this is going to be west too.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 09:42:31 PM
You will soon learn matt that I am very conservative, just ask servocrow.  :D

We're going to change his moniker to Dustman if he keeps it up.... ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 09:43:22 PM
Ron did you see my above post on the NAM run?

Yeah I saw. Interesting.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 05, 2008, 09:43:35 PM
Is everyone just throwing out the Euro and Canadian solution?  Also why the love for the NAM?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 09:45:03 PM
Surface maps shows low further south more in line with earlier runs... hmmm... this may turn out alright for us... we'll find out in about 15 minutes.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 09:45:12 PM
Im not seeing any love for the NAM.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 09:45:40 PM
Quote
We're going to change his moniker to Dustman if he keeps it up....


Ha.  ;)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 09:47:33 PM
Note the placement of the energy.

12Z
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_048m.gif)

00Z
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_036m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 09:47:48 PM
West again.... out to 36 anyway.

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_036m.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 09:48:04 PM
primary dropping down to the gulf at 30... maybe hope?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 09:50:19 PM
Its not over yet, we still need to see the next runs? And why did u post experimental GFS?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 09:51:13 PM
wait thats good that the low is heading toward that direction, up the coast is what we want correct?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 09:52:15 PM
Yes Low placement is good. So basicly what models are doing is old backing off the on time the freezing hits 850mb.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 09:53:22 PM
I'm sorry, this map looks absolutely ridiculous. I've never seen a map look anything like this before.

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_054s.gif)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 09:54:21 PM
I agree. I'm scratching my head on this solution.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 05, 2008, 09:54:31 PM
Seems the HPC and NWS is going with the NAM...that is why I commented the NAM seems to be getting a lot of love.  
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 09:54:37 PM
also the models underestimate the cold air in place :). so maybe we are in the green zone? :) and that chart(model) above shows moderate snow for me in east tennessee lol  :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 09:54:48 PM
That must be a double barrel low. The placement is all over the place.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 09:54:58 PM
agree as well. Something to note is the track of the 850mb low. Right now it looks to come right over nashville
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 09:55:39 PM
Ron, it would seem that if the low was pulling in that type of cold air, that it'd be deeper with and pulling moisture off the gulf and atlantic.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 09:57:07 PM
I'm gonna need to see the ensemble GFS before I confirm that solution.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 09:57:54 PM
I think this run is one of those TO BE CONTINUED runs. Like the kind you see on season finale nights on TV. How fitting.

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 05, 2008, 09:58:24 PM
Well, I'm invoking the Scarlett O'Hara law...."I won't think about that now, I'll go crazy if I do...I'll think about that tomorrow.  After all, Tomorrow IS another day!!"

Play exit music until tomorrow. ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 09:58:48 PM
To the Ensembles! Honestly this is going to be a close one for a major snowfall. Everyone tho still seems are par with a good solid 2-3"
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 10:00:08 PM
I'll take every flake of that 2-3"
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Animal Lover on March 05, 2008, 10:02:14 PM
I'll take every flake of that 2-3"


Hey, Clay!

I love that Cardinals logo!!!  I'm a big fan of them also!   :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 10:02:32 PM
I hope so. Mercy!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 05, 2008, 10:02:51 PM
I like the look of it!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 10:03:09 PM
the look of what?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 10:04:43 PM
I heart GFS :-* :-* :-* :-* :-* :-* :-* :-* ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 10:05:21 PM
ok so lets say the GFS WINS! what do i get out of this.
EAST TENNESSEE?
CHATTANOOGA NORTH?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 10:05:59 PM
Things continue to hold on to wintry weather. At least we did not lose all our snow tonight.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: toastido on March 05, 2008, 10:07:18 PM
I would like to see that ensemble run for 3/8 @ 6z.. 

Where do you get your ensemble maps?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 10:08:02 PM
Things continue to hold on to wintry weather. At least we did not lose all our snow tonight.


When is your next Chart due in. I am intrigued to see what your Unoffical forcast for snow amounts are?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 10:08:26 PM
who? lol im confused.
the gfs ensembles?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: snowdog on March 05, 2008, 10:11:53 PM
Is it bad that I want more than 2-3"....4-6" would be nice.  Yeah I'm greedy.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 10:12:16 PM
here shortly matt. I have kinda been knowing what i was going to upgrade to after I dug into more models. Not a big jump but some change. Will prolly have one call in morning and then final call tomorrow evening.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 10:13:04 PM
Is it bad that I want more than 2-3"....4-6" would be nice.  Yeah I'm greedy.

The goes to the Northwest. ME!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Beth on March 05, 2008, 10:13:40 PM
I am with Servocrow! Tomorrow is another day, for now I am going to go sleep and dream of a bunch of snow falling on Dickson for friday night and saturday, if not, then I will plant Pansies this week-end.  Thanks for the fun here tonight, and all the great info.
See ya'll all tomorrow!!!( you will still be here at 5ish in the a.m., right?)   :D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: toastido on March 05, 2008, 10:13:47 PM
looks like the normal gfs @ 0z losses it's mind between hrs 36 and 48
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 10:13:54 PM
here shortly matt. I have kinda been knowing what i was going to upgrade to after I dug into more models. Not a big jump but some change. Will prolly have one call in morning and then final call tomorrow evening.


SHORTLY IS IN THE MORNING. Your Killing me. LOL  ::)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 10:15:00 PM
I would like to see that ensemble run for 3/8 @ 6z.. 

Where do you get your ensemble maps?
Easternuswx.com
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 05, 2008, 10:15:09 PM
3-5 0Z GFS....I'm not sure what to think??? It has a low in the Gulf at 42 hours and then 6 hours later forms a low in eastern TN where it stalls for about 6 hours and then it moves north. I have to believe it has still not yet figured out how to handle the phasing/collision of the 2 pieces of energy, one to the north along the cold front and the other in the Gulf. By my calculations it gives Nashville about 1 inch of snow and about 2 inches to the east in McMinnville.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 10:15:13 PM
I am with Servocrow! Tomorrow is another day, for now I am going to go sleep and dream of a bunch of snow falling on Dickson for friday night and saturday, if not, then I will plant Pansies this week-end.  Thanks for the fun here tonight, and all the great info.
See ya'll all tomorrow!!!( you will still be here at 5ish in the a.m., right?)   :D

Even tho the bye was not directed to me. I like the Dickson snowfall dream. I will be there with you. Goodnight Beth.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 10:15:17 PM
Ensembles are the individual member runs.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: toastido on March 05, 2008, 10:15:44 PM
Easternuswx.com

d'oh i feel silly now.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 10:15:50 PM
Clay are you sure thats not the Ensemble mean?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 10:16:11 PM
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallmref.html
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 10:16:47 PM
no, one will be issued by 10:30 tonight matt. just a few minutes. checking a few things.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 10:18:13 PM
Yeah, the ewall is the individual ensemble models. It'll take a while for the ewall to load though.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 05, 2008, 10:19:07 PM
I use e-Wall for ensemble members
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 10:19:18 PM
Yeah, the ewall is the individual ensemble models. It'll take a while for the ewall to load though.

Around 1:30am or so I believe.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 10:20:24 PM
TOMORROW IS ANOTHER DAY :).
i hope to wake up in the morning and the 6Z run has a huge blizzard for all of the state of TN!
lol sleep tight everyone
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: toastido on March 05, 2008, 10:21:18 PM
I use http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html (http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html) for most all of my models... Guess I usually look at the OPs instead of the ensembles.. i'm not with it tonight..
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 05, 2008, 10:23:28 PM
looks like the normal gfs @ 0z losses it's mind between hrs 36 and 48

Either Henry Margusity is a weather genius or he's smoking some serious crack.  But, here's his latest take on the "big daddy" ...

"IT''S LOOKING LIKE EASTERN KENTUCKY TO ONTARIO GET A BLIZZARD...

Based on all the data I have seen today, it's looking like the area from Kentucky to Ontario could see the first major blizzard in 30 years. If I recall, the last time that areas got hit by a blizzard was in 1977, but I might be wrong. I will check my Kocin books tomorrow. I any case, the models are coming around to a strong storm and the consensus of the track looks like along the spine of the east slopes of the Appalachians. That would put eastern Kentucky through eastern Ohio into western New York and Ontario that gets over a foot of snow with winds over 40 mph. The is the type of storm that will cause road closures for a couple of days. That's the way it looks this evening. Any deviation in the track of the storm brings extreme conditions either east or west..."

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 10:24:32 PM
Well, he is about a nut.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Storm Central on March 05, 2008, 10:27:03 PM
Any deviation in the track of the storm brings extreme conditions either east or west...

thats from henry :) come on shift east
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: justinmundie on March 05, 2008, 10:27:18 PM
Margusity busts more than any met I've ever seen.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: K. FUQUA on March 05, 2008, 10:30:35 PM
Well what do yall think the chances are for the low to move east over the next couple of models?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 10:33:33 PM
No great but possible.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2008, 10:35:16 PM
Well what do yall think the chances are for the low to move east over the next couple of models?

More often than not, once the models (domestic models at least) start to trend west with a system, they don't switch back the other way.

However, the EMCWF and the GGEM are still further east with this system I think, if they haven't changed since this morning (I haven't looked at them; I threw out all the models because none were showing me what I wanted to see ;D).
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: K. FUQUA on March 05, 2008, 10:35:37 PM
I live in Dickson how much do u think we will get Clay?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 05, 2008, 10:37:37 PM
Either Henry Margusity is a weather genius or he's smoking some serious crack.  But, here's his latest take on the "big daddy" ...

"IT''S LOOKING LIKE EASTERN KENTUCKY TO ONTARIO GET A BLIZZARD...

Based on all the data I have seen today, it's looking like the area from Kentucky to Ontario could see the first major blizzard in 30 years. If I recall, the last time that areas got hit by a blizzard was in 1977, but I might be wrong. I will check my Kocin books tomorrow. I any case, the models are coming around to a strong storm and the consensus of the track looks like along the spine of the east slopes of the Appalachians. That would put eastern Kentucky through eastern Ohio into western New York and Ontario that gets over a foot of snow with winds over 40 mph. The is the type of storm that will cause road closures for a couple of days. That's the way it looks this evening. Any deviation in the track of the storm brings extreme conditions either east or west..."



Hmmm, that would put the heaviest snowfall around -- STATE COLLEGE, PA!  Hey, that's Accuweather's headquarter's and Henry's backyard!  What a coicedence!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: K. FUQUA on March 05, 2008, 10:38:24 PM
Is there any chance the cold air may move in faster than expected?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 10:40:10 PM
Well, I will be checking back in tomorrow morning before heading out to the daily grind. But here is what I have been working on this evening. Just trying to line my map up a little better with NWS forecast so Im not way too conservative. Though NWS is still overdoing my numbers by quite a bit. Will see what 06z models look like when roll around in the morning and update my map accordingly.

(http://volunteerwx.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/snowtotals51.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 10:42:09 PM
Well, I will be checking back in tomorrow morning before heading out to the daily grind. But here is what I have been working on this evening. Just trying to line my map up a little better with NWS forecast so Im not way too conservative. Though NWS is still overdoing my numbers by quite a bit. Will see what 06z models look like when roll around in the morning and update my map accordingly.




NO BACON FOR YOU. LOL. WHITE BLUFF IS WORSE NOW! LOL :'(
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 10:42:49 PM
DT-wxrisk.
(http://wxrisk.com/march8.jpg)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 10:45:46 PM
DT-wxrisk.


That 6-12 is getting closer to us, but what about Dickson County? I mean he has nothing for Middle, does that mean nothing or did he just not draw anything out.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Brandon on March 05, 2008, 10:46:50 PM
Well Matt, I am still just not confident with those numbers. Really would have liked to keep them down but decided to trend a little toward the pro's at NWS. We will see in the morning. Night Ya'll.

Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 05, 2008, 10:48:46 PM
My feeling is that we are not going to know till tomorrow evening. The 850mb line is going to setup right along I-65 to start. Placing along and north of I-40 starting west of I-65 I feel should see amounts in the 4" range. I still think we can hit that mark in Nashville. If we are 1-2 degrees colder than forecast then that will make all the difference.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Crockett on March 05, 2008, 10:50:31 PM
Per their AFD tonight, JKL is favoring the NAM over the GFS due to its upper level dynamic similarities to the Euro and better run-to-run consistency than the GFS. They're expecting a major winter storm for areas along and north of I-64 in eastern KY, with significant icing before a changeover to snow.

The NAM preference seems to be line with what other NWS offices are thinking as well. I have no idea what MRX is saying, since they're tight-lipped as usual. ;D I do know they have us warming to 41 on top of the Plateau Saturday afternoon with any remaining moisture changing back to rain. To which I say . . . yeah, right.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 05, 2008, 10:52:27 PM
I'll be back tomorrow. 5:15AM comes fast!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Shelly89 on March 05, 2008, 11:04:36 PM
I like the way it is looking so far, hope we get some not a lot of snow,  Even though I am in KY, I apprecate the site and finding others who have the same interests as me.  We do not have a site like this where I am at and even when I lived near Cincinatti in  northern Ky, I could not find a site or group locally or close that shared my interests.  This is a great forum and I am glad I was allowed to be a part of it :) 
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 05, 2008, 11:12:48 PM
Goodnight All I am Getting off here!

**Edited by msdawg911 to prevent all confusion (we all know what you meant)  ;D
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 04:55:18 AM

**Edited by msdawg911 to prevent all confusion (we all know what you meant)  ;D

LOL, What did I put down. I was really tired last night! LOL!
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 05:52:56 AM
1-3 inches of snow looks like a good forecast for most of Middle Tennessee.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2008, 06:26:27 AM
  Def still looks good.  I will have to agree with 1-3 in most mid TN and maype a little more in the watch.  I probably roughly say 4-6 down up around my area north into West KY with locally more than those amounts in snow bands.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 06:26:43 AM
Just a slight SE shift would make a huge difference for Nashville... and I just have a gut feeling that's exactly what is going to happen.  Here'e this morning's HPC accumulation probabilities:

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 06:29:59 AM
It's that dome over Nashville! Well, at least we won't have to drive far to see good snow.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 06:34:47 AM
Dave, I'm just thinking about "banding" of snow, kinda like what happens with tropical systems.....You get under one of those bands and "BOOM!" and those lines are drawn awful close.....

Makes you wonder.....
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 06:36:07 AM
I just think this will end up verifying further east.  Call it wishful thinking, which is probably is...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 06:39:03 AM
What's the latest output on the Euro?
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 06:43:56 AM
I just think this will end up verifying further east.  Call it wishful thinking, which is probably is...

I'm with ya there....I want my boys to have ONE big snow they can talk about the rest of their lives. :)
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2008, 06:44:24 AM
  It is a fine line between 1-3 and 4-6 and locally 12 so be careful and watch.

I have my attempt at my second call map on my blogsite my first one was overly aggresive.

http://westkyweather.blogspot.com/
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 06:45:20 AM
GOOD MORNING EVERYBODY! Everything still looks good to me.. Talk to yall later on.. Have to head to the Alternative School to teach some brats.. Later..
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 06:46:49 AM
I'm with ya there....I want my boys to have ONE big snow they can talk about the rest of their lives. :)

I'd just like to have a legit reason to get the sleds out for the first time in like, 4 years...
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 06:48:24 AM
Stormnine, I saw that my home county (Hardin Co.) was under the WW too.  I called my parents yesterday as they are traveling to TX this morning.  Hopefully they will arrive BEFORE the weather gets started.
Title: Re: "POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS LATE WEEK" (3/7)
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2008, 06:51:51 AM
Finally the WSW was explanded to Memphis Metro! Woohoo!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 07:00:25 AM
Here is what I think this morning. Still about the same track, just upped my totals a little because confidence is slowly increasing. Will issue final call map tonight at 10:30pm. Now off to the grind.

(http://volunteerwx.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/snowtotals52.jpg)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 07:00:45 AM
Bring on the SNOW! I cant believe this is actually going to happen! ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 07:03:13 AM
Here is what I think this morning. Still about the same track, just upped my totals a little because confidence is slowly increasing. Will issue final call map tonight at 10:30pm. Now off to the grind.




Ok you now get Bacon, Lots and Lots of Bacon. Bacon for life, if your call map, comes true with me getting around 4 inches!  ;D

I must note tho, that I will snatch all your bacon away, if I dont get my 4 inches! LOL  :'(
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 06, 2008, 07:16:12 AM
snowman i like the way you me getting DIDDLY squat here in rhea county lol :(
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2008, 07:22:18 AM
Jackson MS expecting accumulations now:

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...SEE BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS MUCH MORE INTERESTING NOW THAN IT HAS
BEEN LEADING UP TO THIS WX SYSTEM! FOR SEVERAL DAYS IT LOOKED LIKE
IT WOULD RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THE PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO AT LEAST
LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE. NOW...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AT A
MINIMUM. THE MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREV FORECAST IS THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT! MORE ON THAT.

SNOW POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND NW OF
THE HIGHWAY 25 CORRIDOR. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL PIVOT A 40+ H500 UNIT
VORT MAX SE AT SUCH A TRAJECTORY THAT STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL COLD ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXITS TO OUR NE. STRONG NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO SNOW OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...BUT BEST FORCING SHOULD KEEP
ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN SAID AREA. NEGATIVE TO AN EARLIER PRECIP
SWITCH-OVER IS RELATIVELY WARM BL WITH GFS FORECAST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS STILL ~1100 FT IN JACKSON METRO AREA AT 6 PM FRIDAY DESPITE
850MB TEMPS ~-5 TO -6 DEG C. PRECIP WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL COOLING DUE TO MELTING EFFECT. NONETHELESS...THE
VERY COLD THERMAL TROUGH WILL OVERWHELM THERMAL PROFILES AND WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL CRASH TO THE GROUND. DRIZZLY RAIN WILL SWITCH
TO LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. 00Z/06Z
EXPLICIT GFS/NAM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS YIELD NEAR HALF AN INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE JACKSON METRO AREA TO AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE
HWY 82 CORRIDOR. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS FORECAST IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON THE REALIZATION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DIGGING MID LEVEL VORT MAX...WHICH IS STILL A FIGMENT OF THE MODEL
WORLD AT THIS POINT.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 07:29:08 AM
MMMMm,,I am smelling the bacon now!!!  And ready for that snow tomorrow. I hope it doesn't get slick in Dickson tomorrow until I get home from Crashville(nashville) at 3 p.m.  I bet the roads will be white tonite---with lotz of brine that is!  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: davisjs on March 06, 2008, 07:39:39 AM
Anyone else notice that the latest runs of the NAM fall in line with the GFS in terms of wraparound snow lasting for a decently long time (even if the heavy weather according to the nam is all rain?)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 07:47:33 AM
12z NAM is coming out.......
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 07:48:48 AM
Well, looks like I WILL be making a trip to Clarksville this weekend, boys and girls!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 06, 2008, 08:04:29 AM
Since the GFS now has the low moving across East TN it looks like northwest TN is the place to be for the best snow. Those of us in eastern Middle TN are the most likely to get screwed. I will be lucky to get an inch if the GFS verifies. Nashville could get 2 inches. The northwest trend and southeast ridge do me in once again.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 06, 2008, 08:05:33 AM
looks like the new NAM is ever so slightly south and east from the 0z. run. The 0c 850 line is definitely closer to us at 24hrs than it was last night at 36hr.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 08:08:04 AM
NAM still looks funky to me though...
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 08:10:24 AM
I think it's trying to align itself more with the GFS than anything.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 06, 2008, 08:11:04 AM
at 30 hrs, the 500mb vort max is about 50 miles southeast of its placement on the 0z run. Maybe not enough to help us yet, but at least its a step back in the right direction for us.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 08:13:41 AM
12 z NAM further south at 36 hours.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 08:13:47 AM
Yeah, the low looks to be slightly south and east of it's older run.  Although, it looks like the temps in northwest Mid TN should be favorable for frozen precip pretty much all day Friday.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 08:17:34 AM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//nam/12/images/nam_pcp_042s.gif)

Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 06, 2008, 08:18:06 AM
interesting..at 42, much wetter further south, and the low is closing off at 500mb. interesting.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 08:18:45 AM
FWIW, Margusity still thinks blizzard for us. I think its possible, if the low deepens down in georgia. We'll see.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 08:23:53 AM
Looks a lot better than it was looking last night IMO.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:24:55 AM
Looks a lot better than it was looking last night IMO.

I don't think anyone has said that at any point before a "hopeful" event this winter season. :)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 08:26:18 AM
I would agree with that scot. Trend is going in our direction. And like someone said, this thing verfies just a little more southeast than what the models are saying, we're in business.

BTW, didn't the last storm end up coming a little more south and east than was progged? Seems like the deformation band went through Dallas and then Memphis before the turn northeast.

Its gonna be a long 24 hours.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 08:27:27 AM
It seems to me that someone is toying with us here in middle TN.  Seriously, how long has it been since we've had a good snow?  I mean really!  Now think about all the times that one was forecasted but did not pan out in that time span.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 08:28:31 AM
I don't think anyone has said that at any point before a "hopeful" event this winter season. :)

Yeah, it's definitely looking better, especially better looking than it's evil cousin looked last night.  I just hope it doesn't shift TOO far south and east.  
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: toastido on March 06, 2008, 08:28:45 AM
Even the NWS Huntsville office is expecting snow...  It's looking like even here we could wind up with 1-2 inches even on on the current track...  if it shifts a little south and east as jumndie is hopeful about, it could put us here in N AL/S Mid TN in the heavier bands..  This could get fun, fast!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 08:29:15 AM
It seems to me that someone is toying with us here in middle TN.  Seriously, how long has it been since we've had a good snow?  I mean really!  Now think about all the times that one was forecasted but did not pan out in that time span.

Jan 2003 in BNA.  Wasn't forecasted, but it happened.  Most of our surprise storms happen like that.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:29:24 AM
Well, it's been AWHILE since we've had a decent snow within a two-day forecast window.  Now, a MODEL forecast???  ENTIRELY different aniMULE!!!! ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 08:30:16 AM
HA!  I tell ya, the talk of an angry mob sure pushed the NAM back into shape.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:30:31 AM
Yeah, it's definitely looking better, especially better looking than it's evil cousin looked last night.  I just hope it doesn't shift TOO far south and east.  

We'll call that one the Bizarro NAM....
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 06, 2008, 08:32:28 AM
Yeah, it's definitely looking better, especially better looking than it's evil cousin looked last night.  I just hope it doesn't shift TOO far south and east.  

The NWS office down in Huntsville has an interesting, detailed discussion about the upcoming system.  Makes for good reading while we're waiting on the GFS run to start at 9:30.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:36:14 AM
I really enjoy those discussions, thanks for that link.  It helps to know what the other offices are thinking around us.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 08:50:47 AM
Morning!  What'd I miss?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 08:51:59 AM
Morning!  What'd I miss?

A slight nudge in our favor with the latest NAM.  We're all anxiously awaiting the GFS in about an hour...
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 08:53:11 AM
Lol, everything has got everyone on the chipper side this morning.. ME TOO.. Most of my kids are absent today so everything is chipper here this morning too. LOL
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:55:00 AM
Ryan, it's a BIT different over here...isn't it?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 08:57:22 AM
*plops down and waits too, offering grapes and coffee around*
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 06, 2008, 08:59:35 AM
A slight nudge in our favor with the latest NAM.  We're all anxiously awaiting the GFS in about an hour...

The 12Z NAM solution is now closer to the GFS. What we really need is for the low to shift about 100 miles to the east before it heads north. This is one of the more complex storms we have had in quite awhile. If the models were ever going to bust this is one situation where it could happen. There is still some wiggle room but right now west TN is looking good.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 09:01:38 AM
I grew up in Northern Alabama, in Decatur, and Snow was pretty scarce in the winters.  My Dad moved us to Alabama from Nashville, and we were so mad when the schools in Nashville were closed for snow. My brother lives in Hartselle and doesn't believe me when I say its going to snow there tomorrow night, he doesn't want to be disappointed.  :)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 09:01:50 AM
*plops down and waits too, offering grapes and coffee around*

*ironing...then must run to grocery store in a bit*
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 09:10:17 AM
Most of you will get a kick out of this one.  My boss is from the "Old" School, a farmer, and we operate a Turf Farm, He stated "I don't know why you listen and "Talk" to those guys.  The forecast is out. What could change.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 09:11:01 AM
*ironing...then must run to grocery store in a bit*
Remember to pick up the bacon.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 09:11:42 AM
May the force be with you Servo!! Good luck, and if you don't come back.. I'll call for help.. Yeah everything is alot different here than it was last night. I was almost disappointed AGAIN last night, but things are looking up. Jonesboro Ark, is showing thunderstorms tomorrow mixing in the with snow. WOW Thundersnow, that is one of GOD's coolest things ever. Ive seen it happen twice and what a amazing feat. But isolated over a foot of snow is forecasted when that happens over there. Ahh.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 09:12:57 AM
Remember to pick up the bacon.

Have to go volunteer at my youngest son's school today too....busy day... :D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 09:17:12 AM
WOW Thundersnow, that is one of GOD's coolest things ever. Ive seen it happen twice and what a amazing feat. But isolated over a foot of snow is forecasted when that happens over there. Ahh.

I experienced thundersnow once - in Montgomery during the '93 Superstorm (we got about 4 inches).  I was not even aware of the phenomenom until I experienced it.  Very strange... probably the second most interesting weather event in my life, next to Hurricane Opal coming through Montgomery in '95.  It was still a category 1 hurricane even 175 miles inland.  Trees were downed all over.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 09:21:16 AM
WOW Thundersnow, that is one of GOD's coolest things ever.

 ;)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 09:22:23 AM
Last time I saw "thundersnow" (other than in the mirror, lol) was during the freak March snowstorm of 1996, when Nashville unexpectedly got 9 inches (over a foot north of town).
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 09:27:30 AM
12Z GFS output starts rolling in just a few minutes.  :o

By the way, we really have only 2 or 3 model runs to go before it's "nowcast" time.  After the 0Z runs tonight, it will be more helpful to start looking at radar trends, soundings, water vapor, satellite, etc.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 09:30:23 AM
Last time I saw "thundersnow" (other than in the mirror, lol) was during the freak March snowstorm of 1996, when Nashville unexpectedly got 9 inches (over a foot north of town).
I remember that too, and I saw Jim Cantore on the Weather Channel freak out one day when he was in a Blizzard, I think in the DC area and it started Thundering, first time he had ever heard Thunder while it snowed. ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Heath22 on March 06, 2008, 09:30:58 AM
We need another freak March storm, and this weekend would be a good time for it to happen.  ;)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 09:32:54 AM
12Z GFS output starts rolling in just a few minutes.  :o

My prediction of the 12z output:

(http://www.gennita-low.com/blog/uploaded_images/ball10-796067.jpg)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 09:33:37 AM
By the way, we really have only 2 or 3 model runs to go before it's "nowcast" time.  After the 0Z runs tonight, it will be more helpful to start looking at radar trends, soundings, water vapor, satellite, etc.

And don't forget to look out your "ACCU-WINDOWS!!!!" ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 09:36:23 AM
And don't forget to look out your "ACCU-WINDOWS!!!!" ;D

Yep, this is by far the most accurate forecast tool...

(http://www.rockymountaincabin.net/sitebuilder/images/picture_window_snow-269x207.jpg)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 06, 2008, 09:37:51 AM
Most of you will get a kick out of this one.  My boss is from the "Old" School, a farmer, and we operate a Turf Farm, He stated "I don't know why you listen and "Talk" to those guys.  The forecast is out. What could change.

Henry Margusity's latest video blog is posted at Accuweather.

He's still calling for the low to form in the gulf, then ride north up through central GA and the central Carolinas. 

That's his story, and he's stickin' to it.

We'll see if (or how much) he changes his tune after the 12z GFS run.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 09:39:47 AM
I don't know about the rest of you, but based on the current maps, I am losing confidence... >:(  It looks like it may may the northeast turn a little too soon.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:47:32 AM
Congrats Memphis!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 09:48:34 AM
Ugghh... Not MEMPHIS again..
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:48:45 AM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_030m.gif)

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_036m.gif)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 09:49:15 AM
GFS is looking better for us, however, I think its still forming too much thunderstorm activity in the gulf that's robbing us of moisture.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 09:49:19 AM
I think so too Ron...we are at the point where we can throw the models out the window...Just take a look at the precip. shield back in Texas, look at satellite and water vapor imagery, and you can just about plot the track of this one...  ::)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:49:41 AM
Looks like I'm still sitting pretty with yesterday's 5" KMEM/ 3" KBNA forecast.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dwagner88 on March 06, 2008, 09:51:33 AM
New member here! I'm not the best at model reading but It looks to me like Chattanooga and east TN get completely ripped AGAIN. please somebody tell me I'm wrong, but I doubt I'll even see a flurry here
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:52:20 AM
48 will be more wrapped up.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 09:52:26 AM
I'm liking the 12z. I think you're right Ron. And if the low strengthens at all once it passes us, as the euro has been showing, it could be more.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 09:53:00 AM
48

(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06048.gif)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:53:10 AM
New member here! I'm not the best at model reading but It looks to me like Chattanooga and east TN get completely ripped AGAIN. please somebody tell me I'm wrong, but I doubt I'll even see a flurry here

May see the changeover after the low deepens more headed up the coast. Dusting to 2" maybe... maybe more.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:53:29 AM
Told ya so. ;)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 09:55:26 AM
Not bad at all from what I'm seeing.  :)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:55:31 AM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_048m.gif)

Very cold at BNA. Higher snow ratios too.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 09:55:57 AM
Anyone have any idea what ratios would be? I think we're looking at maybe .4 of liquid qpf as snow.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 09:56:58 AM
Tomorrow night into early Saturday morning look to be VERY interesting!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:57:41 AM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_054m.gif)

Expect to see more snow showers than what model shows. They will still be streaming in from the N/NNE at 54 hrs.

Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 09:57:48 AM
Will take whatever, still hoping low deepens sooner and we get lucky with some heavy bands.

Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:58:41 AM
Winter Storm Watch will likely be issued soon for more of middle TN by OHX.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 09:59:15 AM
Think your 3 inches may end up being a little on the conservative side, Ron?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:59:43 AM
Check out that 970mb low coming onshore at 54 hrs. WOW... the hits keep on coming!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 10:00:24 AM
Think your 3 inches may end up being a little on the conservative side, Ron?

We shall see, but I'm sticking to it for now.

/no pun intended. ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 10:00:31 AM
I AM DEFINITELY GOING TO CLARKSVILLE!!!  WOOHOOO!!!!!!!

Ok, now that that little episode is over.  Things starting to look very good overall for most of Mid TN.  We very well could send winter out with a bang.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dwagner88 on March 06, 2008, 10:01:18 AM
2 inches will just about match the largest snowfall we've recorded this winter. that would not be way too bad. Im gonna take that with a grain of salt though. the local guys and MRX all say rain with some flurries across the plateau. *crosses fingers*
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 10:03:15 AM
We shall see, but I'm sticking to it for now.

/no pun intended. ;D

Probably safe.

Let it be known, that I WILL NOT be totally shocked and disappointed if this thing still goes bust.    ;)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 10:07:29 AM
It's a thing of beauty!

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_700_048s.gif)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 10:08:16 AM
It's a thing of beauty!

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_700_048s.gif)

Dang, looking at that, I might need to stay in Smyrna!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Crockett on March 06, 2008, 10:08:52 AM
Well I like the trend of the GFS. IF the cold air arrived just a touch sooner, and IF the low bombed just a little earlier, we could potentially be looking at a decent little snow event on the northern Plateau as well. I had thrown out the GFS but I guess I'll take it back now. ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 10:09:25 AM
ITS BEAUTIFUL! lol. ExCiTiNg!! :o
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 10:09:28 AM
Well I like the trend of the GFS. IF the cold air arrived just a touch sooner, and IF the low bombed just a little earlier, we could potentially be looking at a decent little snow event on the northern Plateau as well. I had thrown out the GFS but I guess I'll take it back now. ;D

That's the spirit...become one with the GFS!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 10:11:09 AM
z0mgwtfkthxbai!  :o
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 10:11:43 AM
z0mgwtfkthxbai!  :o
Sorry - had to get that out of my system.

Gimme numbers, Ron!  Make my millenium! :)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 10:12:12 AM
There's going to be some impressive lift in middle TN if this run of the GFS verifies at 48 hrs. I wouldn't rule out TSSN.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 10:13:32 AM
I like the trends this morning!  Maybe just maybe we'll see a further southeast trend as we go throughout the day.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 10:14:24 AM
There's going to be some impressive lift in middle TN if this run of the GFS verifies at 48 hrs. I wouldn't rule out TSSN.
Thank you sir!  *grins*
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Stevo on March 06, 2008, 10:15:31 AM
There's going to be some impressive lift in middle TN if this run of the GFS verifies at 48 hrs. I wouldn't rule out TSSN.

Ok, what is TSSN?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 10:16:06 AM
TSSN = Thundersnow


...meaning heavy convective bands of snow possible, associated with lightning and thunder.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Stevo on March 06, 2008, 10:17:00 AM
TSSN = Thundersnow

 ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 10:17:50 AM
TSSN = Thundersnow


...meaning heavy convective bands of snow possible, associated with lightning and thunder.
You can trust this guy.  He knows Thundersnow.  *nodnod*
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 10:18:20 AM
Ron, what is your thinking about when the rain will turn to snow tomorrow?  Worrying about getting stuck in Crashville. ???
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 10:19:48 AM
Ron, what is your thinking about when the rain will turn to snow tomorrow?  Worrying about getting stuck in Crashville. ???
6pm-midnight. Dickson maybe start get bad mid afternoon... maybe. Timing would be real hard to pin down regarding changeover.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 10:20:40 AM
6pm-midnight. Dickson maybe start get bad mid afternoon... maybe. Timing would be real hard to pin down regarding changeover.

Which translates, take a personal day tomorrow.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: snowdog on March 06, 2008, 10:20:56 AM
Good to see the NAM and GFS coming around to the Euro solution as I thought it would.  All hail the mighty Euro, king of the models.  Too bad I will be in Knoxville this weekend and miss a good Nashville snow (they are so few and far between).   :'(
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 10:20:59 AM
After the past few years, I will take 3 inches and consider myself lucky.  And unlike some folks, I for one am thrilled this is happening on a weekend.  My job is such that I have to trudge into work even during a snowstorm unless the roads are literally impassable.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 10:21:26 AM
Which translates, take a personal day tomorrow.
LMAO
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 10:21:35 AM
I hope rush hours over :|
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 10:24:07 AM
I am so glad MTSU is shut down tomorrow.  If they weren't, I can pretty well guarantee that I would not be there.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 10:24:22 AM
So is there a chance that this thing could change over sooner in Nashville if the models come together abit better?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 10:25:28 AM
So is there a chance that this thing could change over sooner in Nashville if the models come together abit better?

I would say so, especially if the low deepened.  If it deepened, it would draw more cold air in thus an earlier changeover.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 06, 2008, 10:26:05 AM
Dang, looking at that, I might need to stay in Smyrna!

I guess it's not looking too bad for us here in Sparta, either ... although points west are looking better.

We got 3 inches last week, so if we don't get a whole lot out of this storm, i can't complain.  It would be good to see others get some, who haven't seen a lot yet.   
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 10:26:41 AM
So is there a chance that this thing could change over sooner in Nashville if the models come together abit better?

Sure, there's a chance.  There's also a chance it could be later... or not at all.  There's all kinds of chances of this thing going any direction imaginable.

But, we can only guess at the most probable at this point.  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 10:27:31 AM
It's sad that Tennessee thinks three inches of snow is a lot. :(

I do hope that it doesn't hit until after rush hour and that those who tend to go party on Friday nights have the sense to stay home.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 10:29:46 AM
Sure, there's a chance.  There's also a chance it could be later... or not at all.  There's all kinds of chances of this thing going any direction imaginable.

But, we can only guess at the most probable at this point.  ;D

It's all a chance...

Quote
FRANK - You take a chance getting up in the morning, crossing
    the street or sticking your face in a fan!
From the files of Police Squad!

Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Crockett on March 06, 2008, 10:30:10 AM
Sure, there's a chance.  There's also a chance it could be later... or not at all.  There's all kinds of chances of this thing going any direction imaginable.

I think this storm has a ton of bust potential. . . either way. It could bust in favor of us snow weenies, or it could bust the other way.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 06, 2008, 10:30:58 AM
It's sad that Tennessee thinks three inches of snow is a lot. :(

I do hope that it doesn't hit until after rush hour and that those who tend to go party on Friday nights have the sense to stay home.

Why is it "sad" ?

We're not exactly living in a snow belt here.  This is the south, after all.  Three inches IS a lot for here, given the fact that we aren't geared up as well for snow removal like places in the north ... although we do a decent job.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Coach B on March 06, 2008, 10:32:56 AM
It's sad that Tennessee thinks three inches of snow is a lot. :(


Three inches seems like alot because we are in the worst snow drought in recorded history.  I remember a time when we expected to get a three inch snow or two every winter.  Didn't always happen, but we generally expected it.  I'ts been FIVE years since the last one!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 10:37:59 AM
It's sad that Tennessee thinks three inches of snow is a lot. :(

I do hope that it doesn't hit until after rush hour and that those who tend to go party on Friday nights have the sense to stay home.

It is sad isn't it?  My step-daughter who lives in Northern Idaho laughs at me when I get excited about a trace of snow.  They have about 2-3 ft of snow each winter.  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Susan on March 06, 2008, 10:38:25 AM
Bet if Bill Hall would come back and draw a big fat L over Houston we would get an 8 inch snow.  I'm blaming him for the snow drought!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 10:42:01 AM
Bet if Bill Hall would come back and draw a big fat L over Houston we would get an 8 inch snow.  I'm blaming him for the snow drought!

"If he draws it, snow will come."

--Low of Dreams
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 06, 2008, 10:45:05 AM
3-6 12Z GFS shifts the track of the low slightly more to the southeast and slows it down just a bit. There appears to be more phasing of the northern and southern pieces of energy. All in all a better run for Middle TN. Perhaps this is a trend. The 0Z run tonight will be huge.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 06, 2008, 10:46:57 AM
according to wxcaster.com..the gfs and NAM (cant remember if its the old NAM or new NAM) give us 2-3 inches in BNA. Not bad, considering the NAM was giving us 0 the last 2 runs. You can see the south and east shift in most all of the heavier snowfall totals.

Cant believe we have had a trend actually go in our favor within 48 hours.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 10:48:18 AM
"If he draws it, snow will come."

--Low of Dreams

LOL, You so funny,,love it!!!!  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 06, 2008, 10:49:31 AM
3-6 12Z GFS shifts the track of the low slightly more to the southeast and slows it down just a bit. There appears to be more phasing of the northern and southern pieces of energy. All in all a better run for Middle TN. Perhaps this is a trend. The 0Z run tonight will be huge.

The next run of the NAM may be even more huge than the GFS ... especially if it starts coming more into line with the GFS and EURO.

The NAM can't be off by itself forever ... sooner or later the models will have to start coming into agreement ... and the timeframe is getting shorter.  If the NAM hasn't changed by the 18z run, then i will forever consider it to be absolutely worthless as a forecasting tool.

Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 10:50:34 AM
Even the 12Z NAM was trending more favorably than previous runs.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 10:51:36 AM
Bet if Bill Hall would come back and draw a big fat L over Houston we would get an 8 inch snow.  I'm blaming him for the snow drought!

Did someone call me?   :D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: joemomma on March 06, 2008, 10:52:54 AM
So it sounds like we are back in the game.  Things still looking better the more west/north you go?  How's the plateau shaping up for this one?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 10:54:59 AM
Did someone call me?   :D

"Snow 'and/or' a wintry mix should be coming down from 'the northern tier' states into the Tennessee Valley.  But, be on the lookout for 'an upper air storm' to increase accumulations across the area to more than just 'a flurry dusting.'"  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: DWRECKTHELEACH on March 06, 2008, 10:55:44 AM
Okay, I have been out of the loop on this one.  Will someone fill me in?  What's it shaping up to look like?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 10:57:41 AM
Okay, I have been out of the loop on this one.  Will someone fill me in?  What's it shaping up to look like?

Really depends on your location.  Northwest Mid TN has highest probability RIGHT NOW of seeing pretty good snow totals, Mid TN decent totals, Plateau, little to none.  Just the slightest shift however, will be huge in who gets what.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: DWRECKTHELEACH on March 06, 2008, 10:58:30 AM
Well, I live in Robertson.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 10:58:40 AM
"Snow 'and/or' a wintry mix should be coming down from 'the northern tier' states into the Tennessee Valley.  But, be on the lookout for 'an upper air storm' to increase accumulations across the area to more than just 'a flurry dusting.'"  ;D

Hilarious!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 11:00:04 AM
Well, I live in Robertson.

Ehh, not bad.  I think your more in line with what Mid TN should see.  Ron has said, and is standing by, his 3" total for Nashville.  Places like Stewart and Montgomery should see an inch more I think as it stands right now.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:01:01 AM
Well, I live in Robertson.

You're in a pretty good place.  :)

Actually, this might be interesting to some of you...  I just read on Talkweather.com that some forecasters in northern Alabama are apparently forecasting up to 2 inches down there (specifically the Muscle Shoals area).
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 06, 2008, 11:03:01 AM
So it sounds like we are back in the game.  Things still looking better the more west/north you go?  How's the plateau shaping up for this one?

May do fairly well. The last run of the GFS gives Cookeville a maximum of up to 3 inches.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:04:21 AM
So, where is Nashville_wx during all this??  ???
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 11:04:59 AM
BUFKIT shot out 5" for Memphis with the latest run.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 11:05:12 AM
Here is a snippet of Paducah's AFD:

Quote
THE LATTER GROUP OF MODELS FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN EVOLUTION/PHASING
OF THE TWO BRANCHES INTO A CLOSED OFF H50 LOW WELL SOUTH OVER TN FRI
NIGHT. THIS WOULD FAVOR A FURTHER SOUTHEAST SFC LOW...WITH A
HEAVY SNOW BAND FRI NIGHT OVER OUR SE THIRD OF COUNTIES
...ESP
PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND SW IN. HOWEVER...THE GFS/NAM...WANT TO PHASE
THE TWO BRANCHES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE OH VALLEY...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A WARMER REGIME OVER OUR SE AND HEAVIER SNOWS ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF THE OH RIVER. WILL STICK CLOSE TO CONTINUITY FOR NOW AND LEAN
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION (SFC LOW FURTHER SE) FOR THIS
PACKAGE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/NAM TRENDS
. THE
GFS IS VERY DIFFICULT TO BEAT (SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING) IN THE NEARER
TERM...AND SYSTEMS THE ENTIRE WINTER HAVE FAVORED A FURTHER N/W TREK
THAN ADVERTISED 2-3 DAYS OUT.

THE "FIRST PART" OF THE STORM SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST AREAS TIL LATER
TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE WHETHER
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR MUCH SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE...ESP OVER OUR SE AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY (WHERE
QPF SHOULD BE HEAVIEST).

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...WILL NOT UPGRADE OR EXPAND HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME DUE TO ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY. CURRENT WATCH STILL SEEMS TO
CATCH THE ECMWF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING APPEARS
ALMOST CERTAIN SOMEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE MESO ASPECTS OF THE
STORM...ESP OUT IN THE 4TH PERIOD WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR...PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED.


I know it doesn't impact most people here, but gives an idea, like someone else said, what other NWS offices are thinking (especially since we DON'T know what ours is thinking).
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 06, 2008, 11:07:05 AM
But what about our temps tommorow? What time are they gonna drop and is this stuff gonna stick?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 11:08:51 AM
(especially since we DON'T know what ours is thinking).
As usual.

Almost time for a bacon run.  I'm going to alert the local media to start sending people to various stores for no reason. :D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 11:08:58 AM
I hope Bill's not out fishing, and responds LOL.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:09:07 AM
But what about our temps tommorow? What time are they gonna drop and is this stuff gonna stick?

Expect most of the wintry action to start late in the day, and especially after nightfall.  As it looks right now, we'll probably be in the 40s in the morning... dropping into the low and mid 30s by evening... and then possibly into the 20s overnight (which should hopefully coincide with the snowfall at that point).
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 11:12:04 AM
So its still looking good for Dickson ??? ;D

Also I wonder if any of the Middle Tn News Mets are on here, in disguise. Like Bill Hall or something :o That would be cool!  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 06, 2008, 11:12:49 AM
Just checked out NOAA... interesting. Upped our precip to 100% Fri and 80% friday night.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:14:31 AM
So its still looking good for Dickson ??? ;D

No, strangely, the models are showing a hole of no snow right over Dickson County.  :(



j/k  ;)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 11:15:21 AM
Thought I would post this from the HPC.  It came out this morning and I apologize if someone's already posted it.

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif)

Looks like the magic 8" mark is just across the border.  
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:16:28 AM
I would assume that doesn't take the 12Z runs into account?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 06, 2008, 11:16:37 AM
By my guestimate based on the 12Z GFS Nashville would get 2.5-3 inches. I would get 2 inches.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 11:16:58 AM
Wow thats real close!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 06, 2008, 11:18:58 AM
Okie dokie. I will take a couple of inches. Esp. If I get to stay home on Saturday.  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 11:19:24 AM
I would assume that doesn't take the 12Z runs into account?

I bet your right, TS.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 11:20:14 AM
Well, ya'll hold down the fort.  I'm making a run to the Golden Arches, and yes, I'm lovin it'.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:21:03 AM
I bet your right, TS.

Yep, I just checked the HPC site.  The latest forecast (at least the discussion) was posted at 5:00 AM EST this morning.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 06, 2008, 11:21:12 AM
May do fairly well. The last run of the GFS gives Cookeville a maximum of up to 3 inches.


Henry Margusity's updated snowfall map puts Cookeville (and Sparta) in the 3 - 6 " range.  We'll see how that pans out.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=meteomadness
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:22:41 AM
The Memphis NWS office has apparently scheduled a special conference regarding the winter storm at 1:30 PM.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 11:23:13 AM
Wow.  69 pages in and we're still guesstimating!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 11:23:37 AM
The Memphis NWS office has apparently scheduled a special conference regarding the winter storm at 1:30 PM.
Link or not being simulcast?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:25:22 AM
Link or not being simulcast?

That's all I know about it.  Someone reported this over at Talkweather.  I would imagine that it's closed circuit.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 11:26:02 AM
Am I looking at this correct that accu weather has Nashville in the 3-6" area?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 11:26:36 AM
That's all I know about it.  Someone reported this over at Talkweather.  I would imagine that it's closed circuit.
Crap. 

This would be something I'd be interested in seeing.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 06, 2008, 11:26:51 AM
The Memphis NWS office has apparently scheduled a special conference regarding the winter storm at 1:30 PM.

Still not a peep out of the Nashville office.  Guess they're waiting on the 18z runs before they commit to any further winter weather discussions.    WIMPS !!!  
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:27:40 AM
Am I looking at this correct that accu weather has Nashville in the 3-6" area?

Yeah, right on the border of 1-3 inches though.  But, it shows about the same for Memphis, so that doesn't seem to make sense (since it seems that Memphis should be progged for more than Nashville at this point).
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: sbradley1979 on March 06, 2008, 11:28:09 AM
What I can't understand is why our local NWS has not even come out with an update or anything.  You know there is a point when being quite about a situation can become dangerous.  People need to know that this storm is coming and be prepared when it hits.  They may just not want to call it and then it be a bust, but I say better safe than sorry.  

When's the next model run out?  Doesn't it come out soon?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 11:28:25 AM
Still not a peep out of the Nashville office.  Guess they're waiting on the 18z runs before they commit to any further winter weather discussions.    WIMPS !!! 
Dude, they're waiting for it to start snowing first.  *snicker*

Seriously, though - Memphis looks locked in, and it shouldn't be long before we are too.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 11:29:15 AM
When does the next model run?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:29:25 AM
Crap. 

This would be something I'd be interested in seeing.

I imagine that it will include local media and government officials to make sure everyone gets their story straight.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 11:30:05 AM
No, strangely, the models are showing a hole of no snow right over Dickson County.  :(
OH,,bummer and I was going to make another Bacon run this afternoon just in case.



j/k  ;)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 06, 2008, 11:30:25 AM
WOW!
im in 1-3inches lol. from henry :)
(http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2008/snow3608.png)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:31:05 AM
When does the next model run?

18Z NAM should come out around 2:30ish, while the 18Z GFS should be out around 4:00.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 11:31:22 AM
I think you'll see warnings go up for Memphis with this afternoon's package.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 11:31:36 AM
Looks like Nashville is on the borderline there for 3-6.  We'll see.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 11:32:14 AM
18Z NAM should come out around 2:30ish, while the 18Z GFS should be out around 4:00.
Thanks TS.

I wonder if we'll see warnings or at least an advisory.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 11:34:11 AM
WSW have gone up for Dallas all of NC Texas, including Dallas metroplex. Calling for 3 - 5" there now.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 11:34:18 AM
I imagine that it will include local media and government officials to make sure everyone gets their story straight.

LOL and make sure Kroger is fully staffed!!!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:34:44 AM
Thanks TS.

I wonder if we'll see warnings or at least an advisory.

Sometimes, I think it's easier to predict the weather than predict what the Nashville NWS is going to do.  ;)

But, an expansion of the watch seems reasonable.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 11:36:39 AM
WSW have gone up for Dallas all of NC Texas, including Dallas metroplex. Calling for 3 - 5" there now.

That's where my parents are headed. :o
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 11:36:50 AM
Memphis Weather works out there at MEG. Hopefully he'll stop by and let us know about the conference.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:38:36 AM
Interesting development out west with upgraded warnings/advisories further south (TX)...
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 06, 2008, 11:39:00 AM
Sometimes, I think it's easier to predict the weather than predict what the Nashville NWS is going to do.  ;)

But, an expansion of the watch seems reasonable.

The latest snowfall forecast map from Accuweather doesn't show any snow for norther AL ... yet, the Huntsville office is calling for the possibility of an inch or less ... so, does that mean the Accuweather map could be underdone with it's totals for middle TN as well ???  Just a thought.  (or i should say, just a hope !!!)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:39:27 AM
Memphis Weather works out there at MEG. Hopefully he'll stop by and let us know about the conference.

Hope so.  He was the one who reported this at Talkweather.  I'll ask him over there if this will be available online to the public.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:41:42 AM
The latest snowfall forecast map from Accuweather doesn't show any snow for norther AL ... yet, the Huntsville office is calling for the possibility of an inch or less ... so, does that mean the Accuweather map could be underdone with it's totals for middle TN as well ???  Just a thought.  (or i should say, just a hope !!!)

I think the Accuweather map only starts with the 1-3 inch zone and doesn't bother showing anything less than an inch.  Since northern AL is just outside of that 1-3 inch zone on their map, then it sounds like their on the same page with Huntsville getting maybe up to an inch.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 11:42:19 AM
LZK Updated AFD:

Quote
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1105 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

.UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE GROUND
BY EVENING IN THE NORTH/WEST...AND STARTED WINTER STORM WARNING
AT NOON TODAY IN THESE AREAS VERSUS 6 PM.

OTHERWISE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH/WEST THIS EVENING...
WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN
ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW
HEAVY AT TIMES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN FRIDAY IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS...WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE SOUTH.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS POSTED THROUGH FRIDAY NORTH OF MURFREESBORO
AND BRINKLEY. THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED SNOW EVENT...SO ACCUMULATION
IN SOME AREAS COULD BE HEFTY. WILL BE THUNDER IN THE GENERAL SNOW
AREA...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. SOME SPOTS WILL LIKELY
PICK UP MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:44:53 AM
Thanks, JJackson.

This is certainly starting to look interesting.  :o
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 11:50:37 AM
All my family lives in Little Rock. They stuck there tonges out at me via e-mail. They all are like HA HA HA! LOL Oh Well! I am still in a Watch , so I consider myself happy! ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 11:53:23 AM
Ahhh things are looking up for everyone.. I believe everyone in Mid Tn will at least see snowflakes falling from the sky, maybe picking up a dusting to an inch Mid Tn WIDE.. Everything looks to be changing over to snow MUCH sooner than anticipated. WEST anyways..
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 11:57:27 AM
I wonder if the Rain is Changing over much sooner (OUT WEST), I wonder if the Rain will change over sooner here, in the mid-state?

Is this wishful thinking, or something that could actually happen!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 11:58:27 AM
Hope so.  He was the one who reported this at Talkweather.  I'll ask him over there if this will be available online to the public.

As I suspected, it is closed to the public.  From Memphis_Wx:

Quote
Its a closed teleconference for media...emergency managers...and other official agencies.

But, when conferences are called like this, I think it means serious business.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 11:59:40 AM
Whats up Matt..

It seems like it could do that here also.. I hope so.. Just in a HURRY UP AND WAIT mode right now..
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 12:01:05 PM
OHX nws must not be convinced of anything yet, or they have fallen asleep at the wheel  ::)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 12:03:50 PM
OHX nws must not be convinced of anything yet, or they have fallen asleep at the wheel  ::)

I believe it's the latter not the former.

Yep...I'm definitely heading to Montgomery Co. this weekend.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 12:04:23 PM
I think the "fallen asleep at the wheel" is a good bet.. LOL
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 12:11:39 PM
Ok I am heading to get some bread and milk. I will buy you everyone some, along with bacon. If you want some just email me. My prices are the following

Bacon 20 dollars
Milk   40 dollars
Bread 24 Dollars
Eggs are really cheap at 13 bucks.

I might work on the bacon price for some of you bacon lovers in here. I am very willing to give a 30 percent discount!  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 12:13:23 PM
GFS ENS 12z is out.

Changeover in BNA around 6pm tomorrow. Track still looks good... same as OP
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Memphis Weather on March 06, 2008, 12:20:41 PM
As I suspected, it is closed to the public.  From Memphis_Wx:

But, when conferences are called like this, I think it means serious business.
That it is. Thanks for the relaying the info as well. As said...conference is at 1:30. It is closed but once it wraps up I'll post some of the information. I can say there will be some changes coming to the watch/warning/advisory structure in place presently.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 12:20:51 PM
HM's snow map:



[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 06, 2008, 12:21:10 PM
Ok I am heading to get some bread and milk. I will buy you everyone some, along with bacon. If you want some just email me. My prices are the following

Bacon 20 dollars
Milk   40 dollars
Bread 24 Dollars
Eggs are really cheap at 13 bucks.

I might work on the bacon price for some of you bacon lovers in here. I am very willing to give a 30 percent discount!  ;D

 Ooooh thats funny!
Im personally thinking a big ol' CrockPot of beef stew is sounding good. It can cook allllll day whil I watch the flakes fly and pile high.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 12:22:24 PM
Thanks for the update Kevin.

I'm eager to hear what MEG's thinking is here. Lots of products coming out with just huge accums Memphis into AR.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 12:22:34 PM
And the precip amounts are about the same Ron?  Or is that too early to tell
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 06, 2008, 12:24:08 PM
Thanks for the update Kevin.

I'm eager to hear what MEG's thinking is here. Lots of products coming out with just huge accums Memphis into AR.

 Any chance things will shift and we will get HUGE accumulation?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 12:26:01 PM
Any chance things will shift and we will get HUGE accumulation?

Oooooooo I hope so..
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 06, 2008, 12:28:42 PM
Any chance things will shift and we will get HUGE accumulation?

Channel 4 meteorologist Lisa Spencer just said that she doesn't expect much accumulation around Nashville tomorrow, due to the precip starting out as rain.

I hope she ends up with egg on her face !!!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 12:31:10 PM
It would take awhile to stick if it started as alot of rain, depending on hard its coming down.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 06, 2008, 12:32:30 PM
Uhhhh thats just not gonna cut it.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 12:34:31 PM
Nope, and thats what I'm worried about. :|  I hope we get colder faster.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 12:34:45 PM
Getting awfully warm here in Memphis. Looks like we're going to break 60 today.

Don't know why but with the way that precipitation shield is moving well up into Missouri, I'm getting a bad feeling about this.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 12:35:06 PM
What are the chances of thundersnow ?  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Memphis Weather on March 06, 2008, 12:37:07 PM
Getting awfully warm here in Memphis. Looks like we're going to break 60 today.

Don't know why but with the way that precipitation shield is moving well up into Missouri, I'm getting a bad feeling about this.
NAM and GFS have outlined that precip area nearly perfectly so far. No reason to worry based on that. And the temperature issue...though we are warmer Today...doesn't matter in this situation with the approaching drastic airmass change.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Coach B on March 06, 2008, 12:37:19 PM
Channel 4 meteorologist Lisa Spender just said that she doesn't expect much accumulation around Nashville tomorrow, due to the precip starting out as rain.


Now, she's probably right about little accumulation for tomorrow, but to blame it on starting as rain is typical dumb it down for the masses stuff.  Whether it starts as rain has little bearing on accums.  Its supposed to start as rain in Dallas today where they expect 3-5 and it will start as rain in the Little Rock CWA where they could see as much as a foot.  
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 12:37:43 PM
I just looked over the 12NAM and 12Gfs and Really Have no dislikes other than it doesnt show 24" of snow! Things seem to be keeping on par. New NAM really showed us getting going here. Latest GFS shows that we are still in the game as well. As far as nashville not seeing any snowfall.... I seriously would be startled if BNA does not pick up at least 2" from this event.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 12:41:00 PM
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
417 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...OF COURSE, ALL EYES ARE ON THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
PRESSURE AREA FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THE
WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES,
INCLUDING THE CLARKSVILLE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS FAR AS THIS MORNING IS CONCERNED, WE ARE
EXPERIENCING THE PROVERBIAL "QUIET BEFORE THE STORM"...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

Ahh thats why they arent talking.. :D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 12:43:53 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030609/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f042.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030609/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f045.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030609/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f048.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030609/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f051.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008030609/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f054.gif)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2008, 12:49:52 PM
NAM and GFS have outlined that precip area nearly perfectly so far. No reason to worry based on that. And the temperature issue...though we are warmer Today...doesn't matter in this situation with the approaching drastic airmass change.
so when will we get  colder?...J'boro at 40...hopefully its moving in this direction
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 12:50:54 PM
PAH upgraded to Winter Storm Warning. VERY likely 10+ inches in spots according to text.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 12:52:23 PM
Looking at this link, it kinda looks as if its going to miss Nashville all together?
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.phpether?  

Or is this just a piece of the puzzle?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 12:56:26 PM
Looking at this link, it kinda looks as if its going to miss Nashville all together?
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.phpether?  

Or is this just a piece of the puzzle?

Our precip should come from a Low pressure that is going to track from the gulf northeastward... exactly where it forms and which track it takes is the $64000 question.

In other words our snow has not even formed yet.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 12:57:07 PM
Ron I am starting to think things are looking better for the BNA area. As you prolly agree much farther south than lets say Columbia and no father east than Rutherford county things are still kinda on the line. I think Nashville should be upgraded to a WSW as soon as a bit more info is available. The NEW Nam is really wanting to crank this thing up later on in the event.You can see us in the deformation band. I agree with OHX on the time of the precip change over but it could come earlier than thought. Tonights weather sounding with help us deal with the issue on temp.

12Gfs New NAM

Note the placement of the 850mb line.
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_024m.gif)
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_030m.gif)
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_036m.gif)
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_042m.gif)
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_048m.gif)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 01:02:07 PM
PAH upgraded to Winter Storm Warning. VERY likely 10+ inches in spots according to text.

My goodness!  10 inches in and around Paducah?  And Clarksville is like an hour away from Paducah?  DO I here naked snow angels warming up in the background?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 01:02:24 PM
Does anyone have off work tomorrow and a 4x4?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 01:03:53 PM
Ron I am starting to think things are looking better for the BNA area. As you prolly agree much farther south than lets say Columbia and no father east than Rutherford county things are still kinda on the line. I think Nashville should be upgraded to a WSW as soon as a bit more info is available. The NEW Nam is really wanting to crank this thing up later on in the event.You can see us in the deformation band. I agree with OHX on the time of the precip change over but it could come earlier than thought. Tonights weather sounding with help us deal with the issue on temp.


Why do I have to be on the line?  :( lol
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 01:04:43 PM
Does anyone have off work tomorrow and a 4x4?
Yes, and sadly no.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 01:07:32 PM
(http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=110448)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dwagner88 on March 06, 2008, 01:08:29 PM
I wonder why Henry thinks East TN is getting between 1-6 inches of snow out of this? Im just not seeing it. I hope he's right, but Im pretty sure that would take a miracle
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 01:10:23 PM
I wonder why Henry thinks East TN is getting between 1-6 inches of snow out of this? Im just not seeing it. I hope he's right, but Im pretty sure that would take a miracle

I can understand his thinking given this afternoons runs. People, I am about to go on super weather mode. I am going to post alot of data and such. Ron or Mods please let me know if I get out of hand with too many, but what I show is something I think everyone should look at. Thanks
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 01:12:28 PM
If anyone feels the need, chat room is open and the first one there gets a slab of pork belly!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 01:12:52 PM
(http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/f30.gif)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 01:14:04 PM
Does anyone think that we'll even see the forecasted high of 45 in BNA tomorrow?  I don't...
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 01:15:37 PM
Maybe @ 12:01AM
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 01:16:28 PM
(http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/f36.gif)
(http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/f48.gif)
(http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/f60.gif)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dwagner88 on March 06, 2008, 01:16:42 PM
I think cold air will be my biggest problem way down here in chatt-town. I have yet to see a forecast from any weather outlet stating temps below freezing at any point friday night. 33 is not quite cold enough. outer suburbs and of course the mountains may get lucky, but I'm going to try very hard not to get my hopes up. hopefully I'll be surprised
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 01:17:02 PM
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1146 AM EST THU MAR 06 2008

VALID MAR 06/1200 UTC THRU MAR 10/0000 UTC

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS.


MODEL TRENDS...

...MODEL TRENDS GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...CYCLONE ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF STATES DAY 1...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE CENTER OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DAY 3. THE GFS HAS TRENDED CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY DAY 2...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE GFS SHOWS
REASONABLE CONTINUITY.

...WEAKENING FRONT WASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE DAY
3...
THE NAM SHOWS REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE GFS
HAS TRENDED FASTER.


MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

...CYCLONE ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF STATES DAY 1...
THE NAM TRACKS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
GFS...WITH THE GFS MASS FIELDS SUFFERING FROM GRID SCALE FEEDBACK
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE NAM SHARES
MORE IN COMMON WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THAN THE GFS WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATION...AND DOES NOT HAVE THE BULLSEYE BLOW UP OVER
FLORIDA...MAKING IT A MORE ATTRACTIVE CHOICE FOR THE SYSTEM DAYS 1
AND 2. BASED ON THE STRONG CONTINUITY AND PERFORMANCE OF THE
ECWMF WITH THIS EVENT...WILL TAKE A CUE FROM ITS MORE WESTERN
TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND
RECOMMEND AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE NAM IN THAT DIRECTION.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY DAY 2...
THE NAM AND THE GFS HANDLE THIS BOUNDARY COMPARABLY DAY 2. BY DAY
3...WHEN THE ENERGY SPLITS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THE NAM FORMS A
SURFACE LOW CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS OVER WESTERN
TEXAS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GEM
GLOBAL ARE MORE SUPPRESSED LIKE THE GFS OVER WESTERN TEXAS... BUT
DO NOT HAVE THE PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SO WILL RELY ON THEIR CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

...WEAKENING FRONT WASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE DAY
3...
THE NAM AND THE GFS HANDLE THIS BOUNDARY COMPARABLY.


CISCO
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 01:21:51 PM
Found this little morsel buried under the HWO inbox from OHX:

Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1237 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

TNZ007>011-026>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071130-
ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-
TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-
LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1237 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
$$

TNZ005-006-022>025-071130-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-
1237 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

$$

ROSE

Now keep in mind this was issued early this morning and before the latest model runs, but to even go and say no hazardous weather expected for Mid TN?  Anyone else see something wrong with this?  I know Mark Rose is very good at what he does and was undoubtedly governed by what his superiors wanted, but c'mon OHX...geez...
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 01:24:52 PM
I agree eric. Given they did not see the latest models they should still should have not released anything. Better to be safe than sorry. What happen in 03???? Everyone was STUCK
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 01:28:16 PM
Found this little morsel buried under the HWO inbox from OHX:

Now keep in mind this was issued early this morning and before the latest model runs, but to even go and say no hazardous weather expected for Mid TN?  Anyone else see something wrong with this?  I know Mark Rose is very good at what he does and was undoubtedly governed by what his superiors wanted, but c'mon OHX...geez...


That is rather shocking, I mean part of the message says Moderate to Heavy Snow showers possible, but NO HAZARDS. Please we get a dusting and the city shuts down. Let alone 2 - 4 inches!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 01:29:40 PM
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

Our moisture is forming in extreme west Texas. I am loving this!  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 01:30:14 PM
That is rather shocking, I mean part of the message says Moderate to Heavy Snow showers possible, but NO HAZARDS. Please we get a dusting and the city shuts down. Let alone 2 - 4 inches!

Yep, exacto-mundo.  I don't know.  OHX baffles me sometimes.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 01:32:46 PM
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

Our moisture is forming in extreme west Texas. I am loving this!  ;D

Not quite.  Our moisture will be coming out of the GoM.  Now, this precip will interact with that low, but ours hasn't even gotten organinzed yet.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: joemomma on March 06, 2008, 01:34:04 PM
I don't get it...why isn't the Nashville office saying anything yet?  Something doesn't compute here, and it ain't my Intel C2D....
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 06, 2008, 01:35:53 PM
Because they are chhhhh-iiiiiiiiick-ens!!!!!
 They think its a Saturday and everyone is off work and home anyways. LOL
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 01:36:28 PM
My guess, no not a guess, just like everyone else. They don't want everyone stirred up if nothing happens and then a bunch of questions.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 06, 2008, 01:38:23 PM
I tried to get in chat but it won't let me type!! No letters would come up!!!   ???
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 01:39:22 PM
They are waiting on the 18z run to flip-flop the 12z output, so they have an excuse to not make any changes to the current forecast.  And from what I understand of the 18z models, a flip-flop may well be in the cards.  Not a legitimate one, mind you.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 01:47:26 PM
Isn't it about time for the 18z NAM? ??? ??? ???
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 01:50:07 PM
18z coming out right now.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 01:53:00 PM
Ohhhhh please let it be good!!!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 01:54:35 PM
Through 12...Dallas (getting hit now, of course) and Little Rock get slammed.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 01:57:35 PM
I foresee hitting 100 pages before long? Who agrees.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 01:57:47 PM
I've got a feeling that our low will be pushed west.  How much, don't know.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 01:58:49 PM
This seems to be the thinking at nws here in town.

http://www.inmagine.com/ie223/ie223043-photo

 :o
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 01:59:30 PM
I've got a feeling that our low will be pushed west.  How much, don't know.


That horrible RIGHT?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 01:59:58 PM
This seems to be the thinking at nws here in town.

http://www.inmagine.com/ie223/ie223043-photo

 :o

Dude, your sick!  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:00:43 PM
That horrible RIGHT?

No, the 18Z and 0Z NAM have been the outlier for most of the past couple of days.  I don't put much into what they spit out.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 02:00:50 PM
This seems to be the thinking at nws here in town.

http://www.inmagine.com/ie223/ie223043-photo

 :o

NO BACON FOR YOU!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 02:01:23 PM
Looks like it may be moving more easterly to me but I am definitely no where near qualified to give such an opinion!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 02:02:23 PM
At this point, I think it would be in our favor to move east...and I still cant believe that with this impending weather, the last AFD was at 4am this morning...gawd!!!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:03:20 PM
Out to 24, and the low looks to be closing off and it does look a touch east compared to earlier NAM runs, which are both good things, IMO.

But temps still look marginal in Mid TN.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Memphis Weather on March 06, 2008, 02:03:53 PM
Conference Call just wrapped up...Much of the MEG CWA (about the NW 2/3) will go to Winter Storm Warnings with the afternoon Package. The exception is North Mississippi SE of Marks to New Albany to Corinth. Most of the area should see Rain Tonight...exception is NE AR and the Bootheel North of Jonesboro...where they are likely to stay snow most of the event. This area has best potential for 6"+...and possibly up to one foot. Further South into most of the rest of East AR and into Northwest TN...totals expected to be 4-8". Further Southeast of that...through NW Mississippi...SW TN and East Central AR...Memphis included...Totals of 3-5" expected at this time.

This could very well end up one of these 33 degree snow events...especially in the warmer Memphis metro area and the fact of the timing being early March...which limits accumulations some. Forecast doesn't have Memphis going below freezing until late evening. However...the expected rates should allow for accumulations, possibly even on roadways, much like Feb 10 2006. Should temperatures drop even further, and if convective snow becomes prevalent...accumulations could go higher...but its the best guess for now.

Southeast of the Warning area...there will be an advisory for 1-3" of snowfall Late Friday down as far South/Southeast as Oxford andTupelo.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 06, 2008, 02:04:41 PM
yep..and 850 looks 2 degrees C colder..the 0c line is almost to nashville at 1p tomorrow according to this run.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 02:05:00 PM
Through 24 hours, seems like more energy is pulled out of Arkansas into MS ahead of the cold. Memphis in the snow zone a little bit earlier...heavy snows setting up across central KY.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:05:41 PM
Conference Call just wrapped up...Much of the MEG CWA (about the NW 2/3) will go to Winter Storm Warnings with the afternoon Package. The exception is North Mississippi SE of Marks to New Albany to Corinth. Most of the area should see Rain Tonight...exception is NE AR and the Bootheel North of Jonesboro...where they are likely to stay snow most of the event. This area has best potential for 6"+...and possibly up to one foot. Further South into most of the rest of East AR and into Northwest TN...totals expected to be 4-8". Further Southeast of that...through NW Mississippi...SW TN and East Central AR...Memphis included...Totals of 3-5" expected at this time.

This could very well end up one of these 33 degree snow events...especially in the warmer Memphis metro area and the fact of the timing being early March...which limits accumulations some. Forecast doesn't have Memphis going below freezing until late evening. However...the expected rates should allow for accumulations, possibly even on roadways, much like Feb 10 2006. Should temperatures drop even further, and if convective snow becomes prevalent...accumulations could go higher...but its the best guess for now.

Southeast of the Warning area...there will be an advisory for 1-3" of snowfall Late Friday down as far South/Southeast as Oxford andTupelo.

Thanks for the info, Kevin!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:06:58 PM
Ya'll see the the low is closing right?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 02:07:44 PM
30 hours - heavy snow setting up over MS Delta. Low is over Montgomery, AL.

Through 36 hours -- nice snows setting up in NW MS to Western KY. Low moves to TN/NC border.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 06, 2008, 02:08:34 PM
surface low definitely further south and  a tad east at 30 hours. I know this is an 18z run, but i like the continued trend.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 02:10:13 PM
So what that disscussion just said, does that mean Dickson County will be under a warning, or what?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: cgil64 on March 06, 2008, 02:11:56 PM
Ya'll see the the low is closing right?


For those of us who are relatively new to this thing...can you clarify what that means? I'm trying to get the hang of all this. I understand the model products, but am not up to speed on some of the terminology...?

Thanks!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 02:12:04 PM
Matt, Dickson Co is in OHX CWA. Kevin was talking about MEG's WW package.

Kevin thanks for posting that. I definitley appreciate the heads up.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 02:13:04 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_030m.gif)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: ChrisPC on March 06, 2008, 02:15:02 PM
My parents live near Wichita Falls, TX and say the snow has already started. They also said it's getting darker and colder there.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:15:14 PM
C'mon NAM...who's hitting the refresh button!  STOP IT!!





 ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 02:15:46 PM
Sorry I will stop hitting refresh every half a second!!!!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:16:34 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_036s.gif)

Daddy likes to see that!  Doesn't it look like the low is more than a bit FARTHER east?  Like hugging the coast east?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 02:17:29 PM
Someone needs to tell me what this MAPS mean. I am so confused.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 02:18:52 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_042m.gif)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 02:19:51 PM
Track of low similar to Euro. Euro has it at coast in Carolinas.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brad1919 on March 06, 2008, 02:21:05 PM
if it moves more east does that mean East TN will have a better chace at seeing some snow not just rain  knoxville Area??
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 02:21:39 PM
This is making me very happy!!!!!  I will have to grease up my sled tonight it sounds like!!!  WOW even as an adult I am looking forward to that!!  HA HA HA! ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:22:11 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_048s.gif)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:23:32 PM
It is nice to see the NAM finally start to live with the other models...what a primadonna.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:25:27 PM
Dangit Ron, step away from the F5 button and get your hand off the mouse!!!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 02:25:32 PM
if it moves more east does that mean East TN will have a better chace at seeing some snow not just rain  knoxville Area??

Yes, by daybreak Saturday there should be snow for TYS.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 02:27:10 PM
So if this map is correct.....what would be a snow accumulation GUESS for Nashville/Mt. Juliet??
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:27:36 PM
Looks like most of the heavy moisture is out of here by 54 hours, but I'm sure there will stil be stuff flying through the air
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Susan on March 06, 2008, 02:28:28 PM
Okay, modelheads.  Now that we are close to 24 hours out, can someone give us knotheads a forecast? please
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:28:45 PM
So if this map is correct.....what would be a snow accumulation GUESS for Nashville/Mt. Juliet??

Something about a giraffe...
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 02:29:04 PM
I need you guy's opinions of approximate times that travel may become compromised - in both Memphis and Nashville.

It appear for Memphis, it may be dicey early, perhaps by daybreak tomorrow, and for Nashville mid to late afternoon?  I have 2 offices that we are monitoring for early closure.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brad1919 on March 06, 2008, 02:30:59 PM
the accuweather map shows 3-6 in the knoxville area i just dont see it is anyone else see the 3-6 or am i just crazy??
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Susan on March 06, 2008, 02:31:49 PM
(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 02:32:55 PM
(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif)


SWEEEETTT!!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:33:14 PM
(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif)

That is sweeter than a chocolate cheesecake with chocolate icing!  Wow, that's gorgeous!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Susan on March 06, 2008, 02:33:25 PM
the accuweather map shows 3-6 in the knoxville area i just dont see it is anyone else see the 3-6 or am i just crazy??

Accuweather = knothead forecasts for knotheads

 ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 02:33:49 PM
WHEW!!  I had a lot of catching up to do regarding this event.  I'm loving the trends at this point.  I guess I was right (for once) yesterday about the model war going on.  It looks like the Euro took the lead and the others followed suit.  Gotta hand it to the Euro.

Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 02:34:29 PM
I like that snow probabilty picture! Its total sweetness!  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:35:15 PM
And here' s the HPC's 8" outlook:

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 02:36:22 PM
I need you guy's opinions of approximate times that travel may become compromised - in both Memphis and Nashville.

It appear for Memphis, it may be dicey early, perhaps by daybreak tomorrow, and for Nashville mid to late afternoon?  I have 2 offices that we are monitoring for early closure.

Yes, Memphis by daybreak tomorrow and points just west of Nashville mid afternoon. It should be around or just after dark in Nashville Metro area.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 02:37:28 PM
And here' s the HPC's 8" outlook:

(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif)

Like WOW!!  Gettin' closer....
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 02:38:21 PM
Accuweather = knothead forecasts for knotheads

 ;D

LMAO!  Nothing more needs to be said.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: davisjs on March 06, 2008, 02:40:09 PM
Accuweather may be for knotheads, but they have an excellent pro site..everything a weather enthusiast could want..
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 02:40:37 PM
That 10 percent for 8 inches is in my area. I LOVE IT! LOL
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brad1919 on March 06, 2008, 02:41:34 PM
So now i am a Knothead???? no bacon or toast for me
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 02:41:50 PM
So, do you all think we are all wishcasting now that we are in the 24 hr window?  Should we just take our dusting to an inch and be happy?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 02:42:05 PM
Okay, modelheads.  Now that we are close to 24 hours out, can someone give us knotheads a forecast? please

Susan, I gave my forecast yesterday.

I'm still standing behind the same forecast... 5" for Memphis, 3" for Nashville.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 02:42:37 PM
So, do you all think we are all wishcasting now that we are in the 24 hr window?  Should we just take our dusting to an inch and be happy?

It's not wishcasting when it's on all the models.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: davisjs on March 06, 2008, 02:44:27 PM
Ron, Why do you think OHX is still so silent..no WSW or anything else and now we have model consistency over multiple runs...?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 02:50:28 PM
I presume they wanted to wait and see how this fell into place as long as they could. We're about to be inside 24 hours for Nashville. They're going to need something out tonight I would think. Probably with afternoon update.

Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 02:50:48 PM
http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/conusWeek.php#tabs

Here they have snow starting at 10am for Friday! In my area. and Heavy Snow at that. And going all the way till Saturday!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 02:52:52 PM
With the current runs, I don't think cold air is going to be the problem, but I am really concerned that a dry slot is going to kill us...any other observations???
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 02:53:55 PM
With the current runs, I don't think cold air is going to be the problem, but I am really concerned that a dry slot is going to kill us...any other observations???

Be careful with words. One second my heart is leaping for joy and then the next worried and silent. I do not like Dry Slots.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: MollyByGolly on March 06, 2008, 02:55:13 PM
I've been holding out for a good one all winter, and I'm hoping this one pans out.  TWC is calling for heavy snow here tomorrow evening/night.  If it's not gonna happen, just give me 60 degrees so I can get out in my yard.  :)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 02:57:43 PM
Clarence, you're right about the dry slot worries. I have been watching the models closely to see where they put it. Our temps don't get cold enough until hopefully we get deformation band snow. That region is of course not affected by dry slotting. So hopefully it just means less rain, more snow.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 03:00:00 PM
Kevin just posted on TalkWeather that they are getting reports of snow in NE Arkansas.

It's currently in the upper 50s in Memphis. 30 miles NW of here, it's in the low 40s. Jonesboro and points northward are in the 30s.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 03:01:44 PM
Quote
Clarence, you're right about the dry slot worries. I have been watching the models closely to see where they put it. Our temps don't get cold enough until hopefully we get deformation band snow. That region is of course not affected by dry slotting. So hopefully it just means less rain, more snow.

I certainly hope so Ron.  As always these forecasts are so tricky around here.  I think that is why ohx has held off.  Are chances seem much greater for bust and they don't want to hear about it.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 03:03:12 PM
But wouldn't we be more concerned if the low was closer to us?  If the low is on the eastern side of the mountains, would we be influenced BY a dry slot?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 03:04:05 PM

Quote
2 AND 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR INCLUDING MEMPHIS AND JACKSON. SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA.

That comes from Memphis. I like that!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 03:04:14 PM
HSV just issued a SWS.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: snowdog on March 06, 2008, 03:07:27 PM
Looks like the HPC is taking note of model changes.  Everything is falling into place for middle TN.  I think we may end with more than Memphis when all is said and done. 
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 03:09:07 PM
Quote
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-071000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE ...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
300 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THIS CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR...AND
FOR HOW LONG SNOW WILL CONTINUE BEFORE TAPERING OFF. AS A
RESULT...IT IS TOO SOON TO SAY HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

HOWEVER...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATION...AND THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVERALL...ARE LIKELY
TO BE IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...ESPECIALLY ATOP THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL COULD CREATE TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ARE URGED TO REMAIN AWARE OF
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP AND USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING IF ICY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS... BRIDGES...OR
OVERPASSES.

ALTHOUGH THIS WEATHER SITUATION IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS...UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS...SO INTERESTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR FUTURE WEATHER
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE
LATEST UPDATED INFORMATION.

HSV
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 03:09:42 PM
I will not be waiting until 10:30pm tonight to issue a final call. I will have it out by 5pm. Mr. Conservative will finally post some numbers that matt and servo wont be groaning about.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 03:10:45 PM
I will not be waiting until 10:30pm tonight to issue a final call. I will have it out by 5pm. Mr. Conservative will finally post some numbers that matt and servo wont be groaning about.

Can' t please everyone all the time, just please some some of the time.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 03:12:21 PM
I will not be waiting until 10:30pm tonight to issue a final call. I will have it out by 5pm. Mr. Conservative will finally post some numbers that matt and servo wont be groaning about.

Matty Likes! ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 03:12:55 PM
Glad you're jumping on the wagon snowman. ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 03:13:44 PM
5" already reported just north of Dallas Metroplex.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: memwxnet on March 06, 2008, 03:14:04 PM
Thought I'd jump in here from Memphis.  Here's a graphic from wxcaster.com of NQA radar area with 12Z ETA 48 hour snowfall total overlaid.  This is the best shot MEM has gotten in a long time!  Cool!!


[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 03:14:29 PM
Quote
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATION...AND THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVERALL...ARE LIKELY
TO BE IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...ESPECIALLY ATOP THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.


Oh boy the Cumberland Plateau better not take my snow away. What happen to Northwest Counties. LOL :'(
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 03:15:01 PM
Quote
Posted by: Ron_Jarrell  
Insert Quote
Glad you're jumping on the wagon snowman.  


Its gonna make me sick. But hopefully I will be overjoyed with so much snow.  ;)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Alan14 on March 06, 2008, 03:15:20 PM
Highest accumulations atop the plateau, does this mean us up here in Cookeville might have a chance for a good snow?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 03:16:32 PM
Oh boy the Cumberland Plateau better not take my snow away. What happen to Northwest Counties. LOL :'(

Matt, that's out of Huntsville, AL.  They're talking about northern AL and adjacent areas of TN... not the rest of Middle TN.  We haven't heard yet from Nashville about their latest thinking on Middle TN.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 03:16:43 PM
Quote
Oh boy the Cumberland Plateau better not take my snow away. What happen to Northwest Counties. LOL

BNA=Meat in a snow sandwich
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 03:18:29 PM
memwxnet, thanks for posting that. MEM definitely has a shot at a big one here.

Welcome to the forum by the way!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 03:18:49 PM
BNA=Meat in a snow sandwich


 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 03:19:05 PM
look at the radar returns north of dallas

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

either there is sleet mixing in, or they are getting serious snow, likely thundersnow. its like a severe thunderstorm with frozen precip
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: McKinley Fairbanks on March 06, 2008, 03:20:26 PM
Does anyone here remember the BIG ice storm in 93-94?  This scenario looks exactly like what happened then.  I'm a newbie here; signing in from Leiper's Fork. This part of Williamson county didn't get power for a month. I'm just saying...............
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 03:21:32 PM
Does anyone here remember the BIG ice storm in 93-94?  This scenario looks exactly like what happened then.  I'm a newbie here; signing in from Leiper's Fork. This part of Williamson county didn't get power for a month. I'm just saying...............

Welcome to the forum.  Lived in Clarksville at the time.  Fortunately we didn't lose power, but our friends did.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 03:22:25 PM
Folks, I think something big is coming together...

I don't know who all's gonna get what.  But, this is going to be a memorable storm system in this part of the country.

Do you realize that if predicted accumulations verify in Arkansas that some of those areas will have received two feet of snow this week (this plus the storm a couple of days ago)??
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 03:23:51 PM
Does anyone here remember the BIG ice storm in 93-94?  This scenario looks exactly like what happened then.  I'm a newbie here; signing in from Leiper's Fork. This part of Williamson county didn't get power for a month. I'm just saying...............

Significant ice is not likely with this storm as the atmosphere will be cold aloft.  Freezing rain occurs when the air temps are above freezing "in the clouds" but below freezing at the surface.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 03:24:09 PM
Welcome newcomers. I concur Thundersnow. Am working on my Final Call right now.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 03:24:14 PM
Does anyone here remember the BIG ice storm in 93-94?  This scenario looks exactly like what happened then.  I'm a newbie here; signing in from Leiper's Fork. This part of Williamson county didn't get power for a month. I'm just saying...............

Welcome, McKinley.

Yep, the big ice storm in February 1994.

Hopefully, this is more of a snow situation this time around.  I haven't seen any indications that ice is expected out of this.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: sbradley1979 on March 06, 2008, 03:25:26 PM
ok....i need freakin updates!!!  You can't even see f5 on my computer anymore....Come'on Nashville!!!  UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE....  good grief...
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Memphis Weather on March 06, 2008, 03:25:44 PM
Enojy the new forecast for Shelby County...

Quote
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BREEZY...RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...BRISK. RAIN OR SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES NEARLY
STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...BRISK. SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO
5 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 03:26:43 PM
LOL.  

jmundie, TX/OK is covered by a Heavy Snow MD from the SPC.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 03:28:18 PM
Sweet forecast for MEM.

Kevin, any idea out of MEG what OHX is going toward. I know they have coordination discussions and i'm sure MEG coordinated with OHX on the forecast and WW issuance.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 03:28:33 PM
Folks, I think something big is coming together...

I don't know who all's gonna get what.  But, this is going to be a memorable storm system in this part of the country.

Yep, this will go down as either:
1- a really nice southern snow... or
2- the forecast bust to bust all others.

Either way, we will be talking about it for a long time...
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: sbradley1979 on March 06, 2008, 03:29:57 PM
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING TONIGHT...

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR ATLANTA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
TWO WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH.

LOOKING AT CURRENT KLZK RADAR...PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SPREADING
INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO
NEAR FREEZING. THUS EXPECT PRECIP TO START AND STAY ALL SNOW
DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS IS ALREADY
OCCURRING AT WALNUT RIDGE AND MALDEN WHERE SNOW IS BEING REPORTED.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE FORM IN RAIN
INITIALLY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP TO PULL COLDER AIR
INTO REST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REST
OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. SNOW WILL BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP OVER THE CWA. THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA THUS ENDING
THE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SINCE PRECIP WILL STAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW DURING THE
ENTIRE EVENT. EXPECT SIX INCHES OR MORE...WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A
FOOT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES.

JUST SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA...ROUGHLY A LINE FROM JONESBORO AND
HARRISBURG TO UNION CITY...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WHEN SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE CORRIDOR FROM HELENA ARKANSAS TO PARIS TENNESSEE INCLUDING
THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THE AREA FROM OXFORD TO TUPELO...PRECIP WILL STAY RAIN LONGER
BUT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES MAY OCCUR BEFORE SNOW
TAPERS OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD INITIALLY BUT WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  37  39  28  34 / 100  90 100  10
MKL  36  40  28  33 /  90  90 100  10
JBR  32  32  25  32 / 100 100 100  10
TUP  40  46  28  38 / 100  80 100  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CLAY-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 12 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR PHILLIPS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 12 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 12 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     BENTON MS-TIPPAH.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR ALCORN-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TISHOMINGO-
     UNION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR LAFAYETTE-PANOLA-QUITMAN.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 12 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR FAYETTE-HAYWOOD-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 12 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 03:33:40 PM
So...anyone going to Kroger tonight?  8)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 03:33:52 PM
GFS initializing.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: sbradley1979 on March 06, 2008, 03:35:02 PM
Just called hubby and told him to be ready to go to the store when he gets home.  It'll still be early so maybe not too crowded.  Love them milk and bread sammiches. 
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: BaxterWX on March 06, 2008, 03:35:51 PM
Folks, I think something big is coming together...

I don't know who all's gonna get what.  But, this is going to be a memorable storm system in this part of the country.


I gotta say I agree with you. Things are changing and I think it will suprise a lot of folks.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 03:36:17 PM
AAHHAAH NO KROGER FOR ME!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 03:36:53 PM
OK.... which one of you broke the NWS site? Seriously... do not refresh every two seconds or the site will go down and we'll have no information.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 03:37:30 PM
What we've all been waiting for:

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST FOR NEXT
FEW DAYS. SOME VARIABILITY NOTED IN MODEL QPF FIELDS...BUT OVERALL
SITUATION INDICATES HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN
MID TN.
THIS EVENT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO UNFOLD WITH SNOW IN
PARTS OF OK/TX/AR. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN UP
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TX GULF COAST...THEN THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN UP THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS STORM WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING A SWATH OF WINTRY
WEATHER FROM THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES.

FOR MID TN...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WARM AIR KEEPING
PRECIP ALL RAIN MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A TRANSITION TO MIXED
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IN OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE COMING DOWN AT US FROM AN ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE PATTERN IS A GOOD SETUP FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES MAY CHANGE TO
FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE MIDDAY FRIDAY...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR WILL SWEEP MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOWFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE MID STATE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DOWN
TO FREEZING OR BELOW ALL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT...THEN DOWN INTO THE
MID 20S OVERNIGHT.

MOST OF THE TIME WE FIND OURSELVES ON THE LIQUID/FREEZING/FROZEN
LINE...AND ARE UNSURE OF WHICH TYPE WE WILL GET. THIS TIME WE ARE
HIGHLY CONFIDENT OF FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NO NECESSARILY HOW MUCH.
MODELS SNOW FIELDS ALL SHOW WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMS...WHICH
MAY BE REASONABLE. HOWEVER...VARIOUS SNOW FORECASTING
TECHNIQUES...INCLUDING GARCIA METHOD...COOK METHOD...TRACK OF
HEIGHT FALLS...ETC...ALL SUGGEST GREATER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS ALSO POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...WE EXPECT THE BAND
OF HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS STORM TO BE IN WEST KY. HOWEVER...IF
THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTS A LITTLE...THIS HEAVIER SNOW BAND
COULD DEVELOP INTO THE MID STATE.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOE EVEN
HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WE HAVE IN THE GRIDS/ZONES...WE WILL ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.


THE UPPER LOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT OVER MID
TN 12Z SAT...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I 65. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH READINGS POSSIBLE NOT
REACHING 30 IF WE HAVE A NICE WHITE BLANKET ON THE GROUND.

TEMPS WILL REALLY PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF HAVE A
THICK FRESH SNOW COVER. SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS AHEAD FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 03:38:05 PM
News is starting to break fast out there with this. From schools to HUGE airport delays at DFW. Things are going to be going downhill fast from here on. Time to nowcast.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 03:39:38 PM
DFW's noaa site was still showing rain last I checked, with 35 degrees.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 03:39:46 PM
AAHHAAH NO KROGER FOR ME!

Ryan, this is looking so sweet for us! I am loving this. And I went to Dollar Store and stocked up on Milk an bread alred. Early Bird Gets the worm.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 03:40:21 PM
GFS initializing.

Through 0 hours it looks the same as 12z... :D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 03:41:15 PM
The OHX AFD indicates that they will issue a Winter Storm Watch for the ENTIRE area.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 03:41:45 PM
Reaction to OHX's AFD:

(http://img.timeinc.net/time/potw/20010608/riot.jpg)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: mrwilkes on March 06, 2008, 03:42:44 PM
LOL....milk and bread sammiches.....

I will be the only one stocking up on beer and pizzas.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 03:43:02 PM
Reaction to OHX's AFD:

(http://img.timeinc.net/time/potw/20010608/riot.jpg)

LMAO!  If you could only put shopping carts in their hands........
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 03:44:38 PM
Quote
THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTS A LITTLE...THIS HEAVIER SNOW BAND
COULD DEVELOP INTO THE MID STATE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOE EVEN
HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WE HAVE IN THE GRIDS/ZONES...WE WILL ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

Hasn't it already shifted, or are they talking about another shift?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 03:46:31 PM
Looks to my untrained eye that 18z GFS is yet again a tad further east.  I'm not quite sure though....
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 03:48:20 PM
Looks to my untrained eye that 18z GFS is yet again a tad further east.  I'm not quite sure though....

Can we get a trained eye to verify this?  The suspense is killing me...
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 03:50:15 PM
This Is An Amateur Call Map, Please Refer To Your Latest NWS Forecast for Official Forecast.

Servo, and Matt, be happy because I am not believeing myself right now, that I just posted this.

(http://volunteerwx.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/snowtotals53.jpg)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 03:51:52 PM
Check out the gulf moisture-

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 03:52:27 PM
Impressive to say the least.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 03:53:19 PM
Denton Texas, today

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDHSvXc9Pe4

Talk about s+
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 03:54:02 PM
Dang, and my roomies don't get home tonight until after 9.  I gotta get cat food.  And bacon.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 03:54:12 PM
This Is An Amateur Call Map, Please Refer To Your Latest NWS Forecast for Official Forecast.

Servo, and Matt, be happy because I am not believeing myself right now, that I just posted this.

(http://volunteerwx.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/snowtotals53.jpg)

WOW!  You're not biting on this thing, are you?   ;D  ;D  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Andy on March 06, 2008, 03:54:41 PM
Looks like they are calling 4 inches here in Cave City in South Central Ky. I have all the ingredients I need for a hearty beef stew, let the SNOW fall!!!
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: DWRECKTHELEACH on March 06, 2008, 03:55:19 PM
I'm getting excitedddddddddddd
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 03:56:18 PM
This Is An Amateur Call Map, Please Refer To Your Latest NWS Forecast for Official Forecast.

Servo, and Matt, be happy because I am not believeing myself right now, that I just posted this.

(http://volunteerwx.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/snowtotals53.jpg)

SNOWMAN YOU GET LOTS OF BACON! LOTS AND LOTS OF BACON. I MEAN LOTS OF IT! YOU WILL BE SO HAPPY IF THIS PANS OUT! YOU WILL HAVE BACON FOR LIFE!  :-* (thats on Irish Kiss on the cheek) LOL I am Irish! LOL! I am very emotional and HAPPY PERSON RIGHT NOW!  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: BaxterWX on March 06, 2008, 03:56:30 PM
Wow - it looks like Nashville doesn't want to take a guess at snowfall amounts.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 03:56:37 PM
WOW!  You're not biting on this thing, are you?   ;D  ;D  ;D

*Hangs his head* I did
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 03:56:55 PM
OHX can issue a winter storm watch any time now.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 03:57:02 PM
I'm getting excitedddddddddddd

Even more excited than in that rollercoaster ride you were in (your avatar), I bet?  :D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 03:57:34 PM
They will wxrocker. they are ready to put it out.

Matt, I hope it verfies. I am nervous.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: DWRECKTHELEACH on March 06, 2008, 03:57:47 PM
Even more excited than in that rollercoaster ride you were in (your avatar), I bet?  :D

Hahaha, about seven million times more excited.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 03:58:52 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/graphic/now/outlooksmall.png)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 03:58:58 PM
OHX can issue a winter storm watch any time now.

They haven't even put out the zone forecast package yet, lol.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 03:59:46 PM
They haven't even put out the zone forecast package yet, lol.
Technicalities.   ::)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Andy on March 06, 2008, 04:00:42 PM
Have you all taken a look at this?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/graphicast.php
Pretty nice! Since I am north of Nashville in SC Kentucky :)
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 04:01:02 PM
This Is An Amateur Call Map, Please Refer To Your Latest NWS Forecast for Official Forecast.

Servo, and Matt, be happy because I am not believeing myself right now, that I just posted this.

(http://volunteerwx.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/snowtotals53.jpg)

I'm holding you to it, Snowman.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 04:01:08 PM
I have a feeling it's going to be a VERY carefully worded watch statement and forecast.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 04:01:23 PM
I just posted that graphic on the last page.  :D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2008, 04:01:40 PM
  Time for every single body to see Pink.  Pink fest for eveybody.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 04:02:37 PM
Winter Storm Warning Across all of West Tn


Winter Storm Watch across All the Middle TN


All this as of 4 PM
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 04:03:15 PM
18z GFS gives BNA more than earlier models. It's a bit east - maybe 25-30 miles. BNA would get 5-8" if 18z verified.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: BaxterWX on March 06, 2008, 04:03:38 PM
Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
400 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN UP THE EAST
COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING A SWATH OF WINTRY WEATHER FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND.

IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN. COLDER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...CHANGING
THE RAIN TO SNOW. THIS TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FIRST IN THE
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE MID STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE
CLARKSVILLE AREA. THEN...THE SWITCH TO SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE MID STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE MID STATE WILL HAVE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN. IF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHANGES EVEN SLIGHTLY...SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE ALABAMA
BORDER...TO AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 INCHES IN THE CLARKSVILLE AREA.



TNZ007>011-026>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-070600-
/O.EXB.KOHX.WS.A.0001.080308T0000Z-080308T1800Z/
ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-
TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-
LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
400 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS ACROSS
MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. EVEN GREATER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ADDING
UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF ACCUMULATION.

TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
400 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN UP THE EAST
COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING A SWATH OF WINTRY WEATHER FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND.

IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN. COLDER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...CHANGING
THE RAIN TO SNOW. THIS TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FIRST IN THE
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE MID STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE
CLARKSVILLE AREA. THEN...THE SWITCH TO SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE MID STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE MID STATE WILL HAVE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN. IF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHANGES EVEN SLIGHTLY...SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE ALABAMA
BORDER...TO AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 INCHES IN THE CLARKSVILLE AREA.



TNZ005-006-022>025-070600-
/O.EXT.KOHX.WS.A.0001.080307T1800Z-080308T1800Z/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-
400 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS INCLUDES THE CLARKSVILLE AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SNOW AND SLEET MIXTURE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES IN
NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

13




Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 04:04:30 PM
Quote
Friday Night: Periods of snow. Low around 24. North northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 04:04:40 PM
Reports of up to 9" has now fallen across the Red River Valley in North Texas. Now expecting up to a foot.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 04:05:32 PM
Quote
Dang - Bill beat me to it.
   ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 04:06:44 PM
Christian County Schools Already Closed in South Central Kentucky.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 04:07:21 PM
Reports of up to 9" has now fallen across the Red River Valley in North Texas. Now expecting up to a foot.

WOAH!  :o  :o  :o

This thing is exploding fast.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 04:07:28 PM


Wow!  Can't remember the last time I saw that.  I missed you snow.... :'(
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 04:07:38 PM
Can you imagine the news networks right now?

A couple just went on air with 4pm newscast.

I'm sure they'll lead off with this at 5, but does anyone know if this was the leadoff at the 4pm newscast?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 04:08:26 PM
This thread is already big enough... :D

Expect it to get A LOT bigger.  :-X
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 04:08:46 PM
I am not convinced that it will not chnage over more quickly than expecting.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 04:08:53 PM
Expect it to get A LOT bigger.  :-X
i've heard that somewhere before.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 04:09:29 PM
msdawg. That thread is locked to posts by admins and mods only.

Y'all go ahead and post your breaking NWS updates here.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 04:09:53 PM
So.....anything happening.... ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 04:10:14 PM
msdawg. That thread is locked to posts by admins and mods only.

Y'all go ahead and post your breaking NWS updates here.
whoop!  And Ron brings it home!

;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 04:10:30 PM
BLTs for supper.
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 06, 2008, 04:12:14 PM
msdawg. That thread is locked to posts by admins and mods only.

Y'all go ahead and post your breaking NWS updates here.
oh, ok...sorry bout that...proceed ;) :-[
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 04:12:48 PM
Ok... throw caution to the wind...  I don't care.

I'm biting.  And, I renamed the thread.  ;D
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 04:12:57 PM
BLTs for supper.

I knew that extra pound of bacon was a fortuitous purchase!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 04:13:37 PM
I would say it was a good change Thundersnow.  :D  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 04:14:22 PM
Ok... throw caution to the wind...  I don't care.

I'm biting.  And, I renamed the thread.  ;D

Bet that's the first time you've had to do that in a while (or ever) huh?
Title: Re: WINTER WEATHER MESS (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 04:15:55 PM
I am not convinced that it will not chnage over more quickly than expecting.

Neither am I. It's already doing that all throughout Central Arkansas. Very dramatic cooling effects. If it does...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 04:17:04 PM
Anyone think some counties in Middle TN will cancel school for tomorrow in fear of kiddies getting stuck at school?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 06, 2008, 04:18:02 PM
Anyone think some counties in Middle TN will cancel school for tomorrow in fear of kiddies getting stuck at school?
I'm sure Hardin County will...they'll be closed for a week ::)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 04:18:18 PM
Quote
Quote from: Snowman on Today at 04:08:46 PM
I am not convinced that it will not chnage over more quickly than expecting.


Neither am I. It's already doing that all throughout Central Arkansas. Very dramatic cooling effects. If it does...

That is something that needs to be watched. Remember a few years ago when the snow started before expected.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 04:18:44 PM
Here's Margusity's latest thoughts... interesting.  Keep in mind he has had a pretty good grip on this event so far:

Quote
LET'S TALK WEATHER...

I think the next 24 hours will be quite interesting as far as the model warfare is concerned. The NAM, which just came out, has thrown out the solution of a storm going up west of the mountains and it's now in line with the GFS and EURO to some extent. I say that because it senses something that has begun to bug me this afternoon.

Across Texas, heavy snow has develop from Dallas into Oklahoma, where snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be common this afternoon. South Texas is quite warm with temps near 90 degrees. Between the two, severe storms have developed with potential for tornadoes, wind damage and flash flooding. Houston to San Antonio to Corpus are in line for a rough evening of severe weather.

Now, here's what's bothering me. The short wave across Texas is much stronger than realized this morning; i.e., all the severe weather and heavy snow. That initial short wave will run northeast and produce a swath of heavy snow and ice from Arkansas to the Northeast tonight through Friday night. Some places will pick up a quick 3-6 inches of snow. What that system will do is push the cold air eastward, so the bigger storm now has to run up east of the mountains, a little farther than I expected. With that said, the error would be to shift the heavy snow area a little to the east, if that solution is correct. I don't think it's the correct solution right now, but one that will remain in the back of my mind during the next 12 hours. If you simply take the Euro model that has come out, the snow area is fine, as are the areas shown to get hit by a blizzard.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 04:19:04 PM
Anyone think some counties in Middle TN will cancel school for tomorrow in fear of kiddies getting stuck at school?

Some counties have already done just that in West TN (McNairy, at least).  If things are still on track tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if there were early dismissals.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 04:20:52 PM
Anyone think some counties in Middle TN will cancel school for tomorrow in fear of kiddies getting stuck at school?
I wouldn't be surprised, now that there's a watch out. 
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 04:21:01 PM
I'm sure Hardin County will...they'll be closed for a week ::)

As I heard somewhere (I think it was regarding Hardin County)...

"They'll stay closed till the last patch of snow melts in the hollow behind the outhouse. " ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 04:21:50 PM
I got a really good bet.  Davidson County wont. Any takers?? HAHAHA
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 04:23:05 PM
HOME FROM WORK! WSW............ Like the latest model trends........I told everyone that this one was going to work out, and I did not give up on it! Everyone enjoy the snow tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! As soon as I can get some things done around the house, I will be back on and hanging out with everyone. We will watch this mature and we can all eat our bacon!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 04:23:39 PM
I got a really good bet.  Davidson County wont. Any takers?? HAHAHA

My guess is if the metro area schools are closed tomorrow, they won't make the call until early tomorrow morning.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Franklin SnowKing on March 06, 2008, 04:24:50 PM
Hey guys another new kid on the block. I live in Franklin and have been reading your posts for over a month. I figured it was time to get in the game. You guys provide great info like intelligent commentary on the models......well most of it intelligent. Now lets go out there and get us some bigtime snow!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 04:25:04 PM
I agree with you Dave.  However I don't see it happening if it's just raining.  
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 06, 2008, 04:25:31 PM
Nice to have you here, king.  ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 04:25:47 PM
Welcome Franklin Snow king!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 04:26:59 PM
Welcome Franklin!  You're just in time.  Pull up a seat and have some bacon.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 04:27:32 PM
NAM BUFKIT now showing 7.5" for Memphis.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: karenh on March 06, 2008, 04:28:45 PM
Been lurking for a while and thought I'd jump in.  Love reading all the posts.  I'm trying to learn about reading the models, maybe one day I'll catch on.   ;)  I'm in the Blackman area of Murfreesboro. 

Let the snow begin! (is it too early to dig out the sleds without jinxing it.)

Karen
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2008, 04:29:19 PM
  I got a my final call map on my blogspot including me typing words that I didnt think i would be able to type like Near Blizzard, Drifts, Travel Shut down.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 06, 2008, 04:30:15 PM
Nice to have you here as well, Karen. I think you can bring your sleds down, but don't take them outside yet (you might go too far  ;D)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 04:31:03 PM
Bring Them out.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 04:31:50 PM
I suppose this thread has surpased all others on posts and views?  And we still have 24 hours before things get cranked up!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 04:32:47 PM
This is NUTS ;D

I think everyone is thinking what I am thinking.

Where is the guy with the Naked Snow Angles. I mean he has to be very Happy Right now!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Susan on March 06, 2008, 04:32:58 PM
will someone come over and babysit so I can go to Target before everyone else gets home and watches the news???????????????
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 04:37:43 PM
I suppose this thread has surpased all others on posts and views?  And we still have 24 hours before things get cranked up!!

This thread has had 6259 views. The Good snow juju thread from last year has 14807 views.

This topic dominates the posts though. 1296 posts here and the runner up was Feb 5 2008 tornado thread with 961 posts.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 04:38:16 PM
This is NUTS ;D

I think everyone is thinking what I am thinking.

Where is the guy with the Naked Snow Angles. I mean he has to be very Happy Right now!

Eric  is plotting his weekend no doubt :o :o

OH, how happy I am that I picked up those winter boots at that yard sale when it was 100' outside. ;D

Susan, just got back from Food Lion (choosing one of the roads less traveled around here).  Wasn't too bad, but like you said....no one has seen the news.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 04:39:18 PM
Well Ron, i see this thread surpassing anything we have seen before.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 04:40:51 PM
Who thinks Warnings will be issued by Tommorrow Afternoon?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 04:43:30 PM
This thread has had 6259 views. The Good snow juju thread from last year has 14807 views.

This topic dominates the posts though. 1296 posts here and the runner up was Feb 5 2008 tornado thread with 961 posts.

Was Good snow juju during a severe weather site lock-down? Obviously that will cut down on views considerably.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 04:43:47 PM
If you enjoy the discussion here, please stop by and donate so we can continue to provide weather discussion and analysis.

I just posted a Snowstorm Special to receive the T-shirt, hat, Supporter graphics, and new VIP forum membership. Go to the events forum for details: Help Support Tennesseewx.com (http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,1146.0.html)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 04:46:44 PM
If you enjoy the discussion here, please stop by and donate so we can continue to provide weather discussion and analysis.
=

I will once I get paid. Promise. I love this site! ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: DWRECKTHELEACH on March 06, 2008, 04:50:51 PM
So, what are the odds of it dropping below freezing earlier?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 04:51:36 PM
Speaking of dramatic cooling effects -- WREG says it's 41 degrees at its downtown Memphis station. I'm 10 degrees warmer in SE Shelby County, but there is a stiff N wind blowing in now for the last hour or so and the temp here has dropped 8 degrees to 51.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 04:52:22 PM
Ok I am going to lay down. I have been on this computer since 6 AM! Thats crazy talk! I need some help!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 04:52:42 PM
Watching news2. Predictor is completely useless. I lose respect for them for hugging that thing so closely
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: snowdog on March 06, 2008, 04:53:35 PM
If Henry Margusity is correct and the cold air comes in a bit quicker and the actual low corrects a bit more to the east then Nashville will be sitting VERY VERY pretty.  We are already in good shape though. 
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: davisjs on March 06, 2008, 04:55:36 PM
Jmundie,

Predictor is useless, but I believe News2 has some VERY good mets and Lisa Patton explained the situation very well during the 4pm news. I have pretty much always listened to what they have said (Particularly Lisa, Davis, and Justin) and ignored predictor.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 04:56:24 PM
Jmundie,

Predictor is useless, but I believe News2 has some VERY good mets and Lisa Patton explained the situation very well during the 4pm news. I have pretty much always listened to what they have said (Particularly Lisa, Davis, and Justin) and ignored predictor.

News2 is my station of choice during severe weather outbreaks.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 04:57:13 PM
News2 has some VERY good mets and Lisa Patton explained the situation very well during the 4pm news. I have pretty much always listened to what they have said (Particularly Lisa, Davis, and Justin) and ignored predictor.

Agreed
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 04:57:17 PM
The best way to forecast these type of situations is to look at what can go wrong. I wish I had enough knowledge to do so.

BTW, looks like the front is pushing through right now via current map at weatherunderground.

I'm starting to get excited.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 04:58:04 PM
Holy crap there is some major convection going on around DFW right now... if that's mostly frozen precip they are getting absolutely hammered.

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2008, 04:58:12 PM
  Yeap we are already closed so I can track more tonight.  So I am down for a chat party or something later.  Let it snow let it snow let it snow.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 04:58:45 PM
If Henry Margusity is correct and the cold air comes in a bit quicker and the actual low corrects a bit more to the east then Nashville will be sitting VERY VERY pretty.  We are already in good shape though. 

I was thinking to myself yesterday as the models were trending west and wondering why in the world wasn't the cold air penetrating further southeast with a 1038 high pressure coming down.  Maybe the models are finally seeing this.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2008, 05:02:58 PM
  Most of the stuff in Arkansas looks like it is all snow.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 05:08:53 PM
Current Conditions at DFW area:

Quote
DFW AIRPORT    SNOW     
DALLAS LOVE    LGTSLEET 
FTW MEACHAM    LGT SNOW 
DAL-EXECUTIVE  RAIN     
DAL-ADDISON    DRIZZLE   
FTW-ALLIANCE   SNOW     
FTW-NAS-JRB    HVY SNOW 
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 05:11:14 PM
Who thinks Warnings will be issued by Tommorrow Afternoon?

If things stay on course (big IF... there's still that nagging cautious doubt lingering in the back of my mind  ;) ), I would not be surprised to see warnings go up in Middle TN by tomorrow morning.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 05:11:56 PM
Yayyy.. im so excited!!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 05:14:33 PM
I am extremely excited!!!  What if we were to get 8 inches of snow??  Just what if!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 05:15:43 PM
Someone in Middle tn is going to win big within the strong banding of snow!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: toastido on March 06, 2008, 05:16:16 PM
Quote from: HUN SPS @ 3:00pm CST 3/6/08
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-071000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE ...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
300 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...


AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THIS CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR...AND
FOR HOW LONG SNOW WILL CONTINUE BEFORE TAPERING OFF. AS A
RESULT...IT IS TOO SOON TO SAY HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

HOWEVER...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATION...AND THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVERALL...ARE LIKELY
TO BE IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...ESPECIALLY ATOP THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL COULD CREATE TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ARE URGED TO REMAIN AWARE OF
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP AND USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING IF ICY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS... BRIDGES...OR
OVERPASSES.

ALTHOUGH THIS WEATHER SITUATION IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS...UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS...SO INTERESTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR FUTURE WEATHER
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE
LATEST UPDATED INFORMATION.


This makes me happy! 
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 05:17:07 PM
The general idea it seems is that Middle Tn should see a solid 3-4". There could be areas that receive 4-6" with higher amounts to the northwest.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2008, 05:26:39 PM
I know someone in West KY and maype a slight chance in nW MID TN is supposed to pick up an isolated foot if they can go under very heavy snow bands.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: justinmundie on March 06, 2008, 05:29:06 PM
Dewpoints are dropping like a rock. Front is through. That bodes well for us, I think. We need to cool off tonight into the thirties, and the heavy precip will drop the temps.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2008, 05:29:39 PM
Could, supposed is too strong of a word , but the PAH Weather Story used the words near blizzard. I went crazy on my blogspot talking about raiding grocery stores and going in bomb shelters to get food.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 05:34:32 PM
Could, supposed is too strong of a word , but the PAH Weather Story used the words near blizzard. I went crazy on my blogspot talking about raiding grocery stores and going in bomb shelters to get food.

That stuff from the bomb shelters would be some nasty, stale-ass food, wouldn't it?

(http://images.jupiterimages.com/common/detail/04/50/23235004.jpg)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 05:36:01 PM
I wonder how much Dickson will recieve?  Hoping its alot!  Looks like Eric will be making those special snow angels for sure!!!  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 05:37:35 PM
Yeah, western ky is going to get SLAMMED!

My 2nd call comes out now for BNA. A mix of rain and snow changing to snow @ 3pm. Ground temps will limit initial snowfall. By 6:30pm roads may become cover and the real threat of accidents raises. Total snowfall accumulations for BNA - 4.5" with locally higher amounts. Area just to the west have the greatest risk of seeing 6"+.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 06, 2008, 05:37:47 PM
Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0363
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CST THU MAR 06 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTRM NE TX...SE OK...NW AR
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 062316Z - 070515Z
   
   HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH EVENING FROM SERN
   OK THROUGH NWRN AR.
   
   CURRENT RADAR INDICATES HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON
   ARE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF AS UPPER JET SEGMENT LIFTS OUT RAPIDLY
   ACROSS MISSOURI.  THE STRONG 850 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL
   CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN
   OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SNOWFALL
   RATES...ESPECIALLY EARLY EVENING OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AS THE SYSTEM
   LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  FREEZING LINE FROM SERN OKLAHOMA TO NCNTRL
   ARKANSAS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
   EVENING...EVENTUALLY ORIENTED ALONG SOUTHEASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE
   AREA.  MUCH OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH
   TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND
   THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
   
   EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE AREA MAY HAVE SOME RAIN OR
   RAIN/SNOW MIXED BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 03/06/2008
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
   FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...F WD...OUN...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: snowdog on March 06, 2008, 05:42:41 PM
Nashville_Wx, do you see this thing possibly correcting to the east a bit more as Margusity talked about and if so does that put Nashville in a better category to get into the 6+" area? 
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 05:48:08 PM
That stuff from the bomb shelters would be some nasty, stale-ass food, wouldn't it?

(http://images.jupiterimages.com/common/detail/04/50/23235004.jpg)

Just put some BACON on it, and it will go down FINE!




 ::)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Polarbear on March 06, 2008, 05:51:19 PM
Just put some BACON on it, and it will go down FINE!




 ::)

Bill Cosby once said that Americans will eat anything on the face of the earth if you put it between two pieces of bread. After seeing this bread, he might want to rethink that statement.  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 05:55:28 PM
Just put some BACON on it, and it will go down FINE!




 ::)


I think this Bacon Situation has gone to Thundersnows head. Speaking of Thundersnow. Is there a chance we can see some. That would be amazing!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 05:57:06 PM
I was going to suggest when bread supplies are low (or questionable) it is ENTIRELY proper to have the bacon on bacon sammich....

Just weave the slices and ........ ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 05:58:27 PM
Nashville_Wx, do you see this thing possibly correcting to the east a bit more as Margusity talked about and if so does that put Nashville in a better category to get into the 6+" area? 

Yes I think that is quite possible. The big thing is going to be the time the changeover occurs and how much is lots to melting. If things play out for the best Nashville could see 6" of snow!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 05:59:24 PM
I was going to suggest when bread supplies are low (or questionable) it is ENTIRELY proper to have the bacon on bacon sammich....

Just weave the slices and ........ ;D
Excellent Idea Servocrow,,Bacon sandwichs and SNOWCREAM shakes,,yummy!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2008, 06:02:39 PM
  Our Emergancy Manager is even mentioning the word Blizzard for South Pennryle area of KY.  SO def a big exclamation point the storm tonight looks to start off as rain then wet bubling and dynamic cooling nad all that good stuff takes over and throws us at least in West kY and poss Mid TN snow.  The big event is 2 systems merge along with wind of 25 to 35 mph so untreated roads get drifted shut and you get your bomb shelter food with a lot of bacon bacon bacon eveywhere make a bacon snowman with the snow and bacon for his mouth.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 06:03:29 PM
Excellent Idea Servocrow,,Bacon sandwichs and SNOWCREAM shakes,,yummy!!!

I have a couple now and again...and YES!!  THIS time.....SNOWCREAM!!  GEEZ, I am going to have to do that too!!  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 06:04:00 PM
Bring on the snow! Yeah!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 06:04:19 PM
 Lovin the title of the thread  ;D .
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 06:05:44 PM
It as actually gotten kinda quiet around here the past couple hours.  Must be because no new models are out.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2008, 06:06:49 PM
 It is cause how many times do we have a major snowstorm coming in TN weather life here recently.  If this is totally correct I wllill overally forgive all the rest of the winters this decade for being sucky.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 06:07:36 PM
Yeah, well people are eating, getting off work (dealin' with THE MAN and the grocery store), and others are at other weather forums too.

So....enjoy this quiet little break.

Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 06:07:43 PM
Question:

Will all this heavy rain at the begging , make all the salt wash away, and cause snow and ice to form on the roads once the change over starts, or when ground temps get below frezzing?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 06:09:34 PM
Lovin the title of the thread  ;D .

Hey, I can hype it up like the best of 'em.  ;D

It as actually gotten kinda quiet around here the past couple hours.  Must be because no new models are out.

0Z models should be out by 10:00.  But, this system is really "live" now.  So, it's about time to step away from the models and look at surface observations, radar trends, etc.

We all need a quiet evening.  Need to rest up for the next couple of days.  ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 06:10:31 PM
Hey guys, you might want to start a NEW SCHOOL CLOSINGS thread.. They are already closing in KY.. :D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 06:11:05 PM
Matt the report I heard (Newschannel 5)was the brine that is going down in your area (and other areas in NW Middle TN) is put there because you will be changing over SOONER, thus the rain will not cause a problem.  For those of us that will have the rain, we will have to wait for salt to be put down after the snow begins.

Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 06:11:40 PM
Brine already down in parts of west nashville.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 06:12:13 PM
Hey guys, you might want to start a NEW SCHOOL CLOSINGS thread.. They are already closing in KY.. :D

All the Mods decided we didn't need to do that anymore, so we refer EVERYONE to their local media outlets for School Closings!! ;D ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 06, 2008, 06:12:44 PM
Hey guys, you might want to start a NEW SCHOOL CLOSINGS thread.. They are already closing in KY.. :D
Unfortunately, we opted to do away with the school closings forum in the best interest of everyone. But, wow, I can't believe they are already closing there. :o

EDIT: Servo beat me to it. Argh! >:(  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 06:13:02 PM
Ok Im just realizing that we are under a Winter Storm Watch,lol. Can somebody scream dufus?  ::) And we actually have 100% chance of snow. I havent never seen that in their forecast.  ;D  Now Im greedy I, hope we get more, but if it dosent pan out I think Ill be ok.  8)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 06:14:53 PM
I am so excited.

All tho the Titans have not done so good in the past.
WE GOT THE FREAK BACK. Jevon Kearse. Is that how you spell his name. I think he will improve our stats a lil bit.

Decided to change the subject...just a lil.

But to make this more about snow. All I have to say is....  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 06:15:39 PM

EDIT: Servo beat me to it. Argh! >:(  ;D

Aye, ye be Pirate Jake, matey????
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 06:18:22 PM
The staff decided not to keep up with school closings because no one really comes here for thier first option in school closings. Feel free to post them, but there will NOT be a thread for them.

Well the staff is on it tonight.  :D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 06:19:56 PM
I am so excited.

All tho the Titans have not done so good in the past.
WE GOT THE FREAK BACK. Jevon Kearse. Is that how you spell his name. I think he will improve our stats a lil bit.

OFF TOPIC but I knew that 2 months ago because I got in side connections. hehehhehehheehhee
Man I wish we had some serious CAA goin on tommorrow morning, the we would have thundersnow. :(
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tipper on March 06, 2008, 06:23:50 PM
I am a closet baconteer.  :-)  I thought ya'll might be interested to see what the Office of Emergency Management just sent out via email.

From OEM...

Quote
OEM is monitoring a developing weather situation coming in from the plains states that the weather service projects will produce snowfall throughout the state from tomorrow evening through Saturday midday. Two to four inches of snow expected here before it is over--temps aren't expected to rise above freezing on Saturday.

Snow forecast and predictions are very tricky--especially this far out. March snows are historically the wet, heavy and fast accumulating kind. And if this storm changes course slightly more north than projected we could be in for even more snow. We'll see.

Metro OEM will watch the track and history of the storm system closely and advise appropriately. Metro Public Works is making preparations as well.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Mr. Golf on March 06, 2008, 06:28:35 PM
hello every1.My first post here.im from around nw mississippi.Iwanted to know something.Feel free to chime in.I looked at the hpc a few hours ago and noticed two separate lows.One going through central mississippi,and the other one forming over southern mississippi and tracking northeast.Now,the hpc shows one low tracking through southeast texas into central louisiana and then,to me,looks like it tries to reform over sw alabama while tracking northeast from there.Is there any difference in solutions from earlier to now.thanks
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 06:29:28 PM
Welcome Tipper!!  Is that Nashville Metro?

We Welcome you to the Land of Bacon!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 06:29:53 PM
Thanks Tipper! Welcome.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 06:30:11 PM

March snows are historically the wet, heavy and fast accumulating kind. And if this storm changes course slightly more north than projected we could be in for even more snow. We'll see.


Intresting.... I like the part I quoted the best!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tipper on March 06, 2008, 06:32:42 PM
It is from Metro.    I love ya'll.

Now, I will retreat back into the closet.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 06:34:26 PM
It is from Metro.    I love ya'll.

Now, I will retreat back into the closet.

NO YOU CAN'T GO BACK NOW!!!!  DON'T MAKE ME COME IN THERE...

There's no bacon in there...it IS ALL OUT HERE....C'mon..... ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: RobD on March 06, 2008, 06:36:44 PM
Hey y'all. First time poster, but I've been following along for a few months and this is the first place that I come when I hear there might be weather. Great info.

So as a NJ native whose last blizzard before moving here in 6/03 was a 28" storm (and the kids only used one snow day) during a 56" winter, can you tell me what the reality of 4-6" in Williamson County would be? School out for how long? Stores out of bread/milk for how long? 4-6" wasn't even considered a nuisance in NJ so I don't want to be caught unprepared. I'll be sure to stock up on the bacon though  ;)
RobD
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 06:39:29 PM
I am so excited.

All tho the Titans have not done so good in the past.
WE GOT THE FREAK BACK. Jevon Kearse. Is that how you spell his name. I think he will improve our stats a lil bit.

Decided to change the subject...just a lil.

But to make this more about snow. All I have to say is....  ;D
I meant to say I am excited about Kearse the Hearse coming back too Matt!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 06:39:54 PM
4-6" would shut down Middle Tennessee.  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 06:40:12 PM
Hey y'all. First time poster, but I've been following along for a few months and this is the first place that I come when I hear there might be weather. Great info.

So as a NJ native whose last blizzard before moving here in 6/03 was a 28" storm (and the kids only used one snow day) during a 56" winter, can you tell me what the reality of 4-6" in Williamson County would be? School out for how long? Stores out of bread/milk for how long? 4-6" wasn't even considered a nuisance in NJ so I don't want to be caught unprepared. I'll be sure to stock up on the bacon though  ;)
RobD


In very basic prespective. A Dusting Shuts Down The Entire Mid-State. School Closing in Willamson and Davidson, are a tuff call, but most likely, the possiblity of closing early, is not out of the question. As for bread and milk, it will soon start going off the self in record numbers. But basically the state will shut down, with this much snow!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 06:44:58 PM
I work for Metro Nashville Schools and I sure hope they shut down early, cause the first flake that falls in Dickson my Dad is calling me and my Mercury is headed home. ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 06:46:49 PM
Quote
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL GET ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE EXACT
AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...INTO
NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY...AND FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SATURDAY MORNING. EVEN SLIGHT CHANGES IN
THE TRACK...COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS A FAVORED TRACK
FOR HEAVY SNOWFALLS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE ALABAMA
BORDER...TO5 OR 6 INCHES IN THE CLARKSVILLE AREA.


I really like the last part. Half a foot of snow, in my area! That makes me happy!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 06:47:47 PM
hello every1.My first post here.im from around nw mississippi.Iwanted to know something.Feel free to chime in.I looked at the hpc a few hours ago and noticed two separate lows.One going through central mississippi,and the other one forming over southern mississippi and tracking northeast.Now,the hpc shows one low tracking through southeast texas into central louisiana and then,to me,looks like it tries to reform over sw alabama while tracking northeast from there.Is there any difference in solutions from earlier to now.thanks

First off, WELCOME TO THE FORUM!!  I'm probably the least qualified to try and answer this, but I don't want your question to get lost.   THe only thing I can figure is the low is coming over from TX and it does actually tap into the GULF moisture...I don't know that the pictures grab that very well, because I have seen it look like two separate lows as well, but  it (to me) looks like one system picking up moisture from the gulf and heading up into the NE.

BELIEVE ME, IF I AM WRONG (AND I USUALLY AM), someone will quickly point it out.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 06:49:08 PM
Matt,

I went through White Bluff this afternoon and 70 sure has alot of Brine on it.  I use to live in Kingston Springs and was in WB all the time. Nice community! :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 06:51:01 PM
No school for all of Mid Tn Saturday! yaayyy!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 06:51:50 PM
No school for all of Mid Tn Saturday! yaayyy!!!

And we can play in the snow all week-end!!!  yaaaayyyyy
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Mr. Golf on March 06, 2008, 06:53:10 PM
thanks alot.I just wasnt sure.Looked strange to me.Ive never seen the hpc change the low track so much like recently esp around here. always does seems like when we have a chance at something. ::)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 06:56:33 PM
thanks alot.I just wasnt sure.Looked strange to me.Ive never seen the hpc change the low track so much like recently esp around here. always does seems like when we have a chance at something. ::)

You're welcome.  I saw one picture yesterday that had an "L" in N Mississippi and then one almost directly below it in Southern Alabama, but I think it has been some of the confusing aspects that the models have been spitting out too.  But hey, all that stuff confuses me, so I'm more comfortable with a frying pan and a pound of bacon!! ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 07:02:37 PM
Matt,

I went through White Bluff this afternoon and 70 sure has alot of Brine on it.  I use to live in Kingston Springs and was in WB all the time. Nice community! :)

Nice ~~~~~Yes
Small ~~~~ YES
Two Traffic Lights ~~~~YES

BORING ~~~~~~~~~~YES , YES, YES and did I mention YES!  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 07:04:22 PM
And may I add I saw that dude on WSMV and he said it will also tap into some energy comin in from the north and kind of blow up over here.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 07:04:31 PM
No school for all of Mid Tn Saturday! yaayyy!!!

What.....Closed on Saturday! I was so looking forward to Saturday School Detention!  :'(

LOL!  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 07:05:41 PM
No school for all of Mid Tn Saturday! yaayyy!!!
and Sunday. So we can watch it melt. YIPEE!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 07:06:50 PM
If it snows, alot!

Would that keep tempatures down, enouf, to keep some schools closed Monday?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 07:09:45 PM
Now, if we get 5 inches or more, it could. We shall see. Dont, be greedy.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 07:10:08 PM
Possibly.  Remember... there's all those untreated rural county roads that may not all thaw out by Monday morning.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 07:18:45 PM
Had a little down time, so went ahead and activated my winter storm mode on my blog.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: snowwisher on March 06, 2008, 07:20:34 PM
This is what I need to know.....I teach and can leave school at 3:30....no food in the house.....should I go NOW or will I have time to go after school before it gets bad....in your opinion of course. ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 07:22:18 PM
This is what I need to know.....I teach and can leave school at 3:30....no food in the house.....should I go NOW or will I have time to go after school before it gets bad....in your opinion of course. ;)

Go to the grocery store ASAP...

...not because of the snow but before the food runs out after being ravaged by the hysterical masses.  :o
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 07:23:47 PM
Go Now, tomorrow afternoon is going to be havoc. Everyone will be hitting the stores right before the storm.  :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 07:26:47 PM
I suspect tomorrow will be absolute pandemonium at your grocer's freezer.... ;)


Glad I went today.

WHEW!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Susan on March 06, 2008, 07:32:08 PM
This is what I need to know.....I teach and can leave school at 3:30....no food in the house.....should I go NOW or will I have time to go after school before it gets bad....in your opinion of course. ;)

I just got in from a liquor, grocery, and Target run.  (only two diapers left in the cupboard, it was necessary storm or not) The stores were empty! My husband, friends and the clerks at the store do not believe it is going to snow.  Or if it does it will be just a little bit.  Lots of folks are going to be caught off guard.  Going to be interesting.

Go to the store tonight.

Susan
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 07:33:51 PM
Well, many times they have been told it was coming and it didnt. I am pretty sure though by tomorrow evening, many will have snow.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 07:33:57 PM
This is what I need to know.....I teach and can leave school at 3:30....no food in the house.....should I go NOW or will I have time to go after school before it gets bad....in your opinion of course. ;)
I went last night and it was already crazy!!!  I would not wait till tomorrow, like Servocrow said,,food might be gone,lol.  We could be stranded for 2 days,,lol. ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 07:38:43 PM
(http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lmk/wx/File.png)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 07:41:03 PM
Look at the latest RUC

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr3/images/ruc_slp_009m.gif)
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr3/images/ruc_slp_009m.gif)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 07:41:33 PM
(http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lmk/wx/File.png)


I think that map is wrong. I think they will get more snow than that!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 07:42:33 PM
Look at the latest RUC


Is that good?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 07:43:49 PM
Look at that convective snow banding out west. That is what we can expect tomorrow evening. ;D

(http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/sgf/short/File.png)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 07:48:07 PM
I'm getting a bad feeling about this for Memphis.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 07:49:32 PM
I'm getting a bad feeling about this for Memphis.

Bad Feeling as in...NO SNOW....or Bad Feeling as HUGH STORM?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: ultra mag on March 06, 2008, 07:50:06 PM
 Whats your feeling for memphis?Better yet what about crockett county in west tn?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 07:50:33 PM
I don't think it's shaping up well for snow in Memphis. Seems like the system is picking up speed and everything is moving well north of what was projected just 12 hours ago.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 07:51:34 PM
Bad Feeling as in...NO SNOW....or Bad Feeling as HUGH STORM?

Who is Hugh Storm??? ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 07:53:09 PM
Who is Hugh Storm??? ;D

HUGE STORM! My Bad.

I don't think it's shaping up well for snow in Memphis. Seems like the system is picking up speed and everything is moving well north of what was projected just 12 hours ago.


Does that bring down our chances, if its speeding up. Are we not going to get as much?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2008, 07:54:27 PM
I don't think it's shaping up well for snow in Memphis. Seems like the system is picking up speed and everything is moving well north of what was projected just 12 hours ago.
Its exactly where it was predicted to be right now
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 07:56:16 PM
I don't think it's shaping up well for snow in Memphis. Seems like the system is picking up speed and everything is moving well north of what was projected just 12 hours ago.

It's on track just as it's supposed to be. No worries mate.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 07:56:30 PM
I see no reason to panic yet.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 08:00:11 PM
Looking at the new NAM...UGH.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 08:04:45 PM
Eric has made landfall in Clarksville, the new North Pole!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 08:05:47 PM
I still think you are fine JJJackson.  ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 08:05:54 PM
Precip shield encroaching Little Rock.  The action is about to get started there.

(http://lh4.google.com/DCRPics/R9CiGZkiPHI/AAAAAAAAAVM/txrJLR43iQc/s800/arkansas.jpg)

Oh, is that a mesocyclone marker I see showing up west of LZK??

 ???  :o

 ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 08:07:12 PM
JJJackson, put your models away and nowcast man. Or we will put you in the corner.  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:08:52 PM
Can you have those markers with winter precip????  WOW!! :o
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: snowwisher on March 06, 2008, 08:09:27 PM
Do you (anybody) think we shoule expect early dismissals tomorrow.....I need my bottle of tylenol if so.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 08:10:06 PM
SNOW TORNADO!! LOL WOW
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 08:11:10 PM
It will just depend on the early dismissals. Depends on when things changeover. its possible.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:12:36 PM
Check out the radar out in the GoM. That convection is kicking!

Go baby go! More convection= more snow for BNA!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:12:47 PM
Do you (anybody) think we shoule expect early dismissals tomorrow.....I need my bottle of tylenol if so.

Depends on where you are at....I would NOT be surprised to see more schools just NOT open in W. TN and possibly W. MIDDLE....and points N.  Christian County KY is already closed.  OTHERS could dismiss early depending upon when the cold air comes in.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 08:12:55 PM
Its now 36 in Clarksville.


I think those tempatures will cause sleet? Or a Wet Bulb Effect*(is that the term for it)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:13:27 PM
SNOW TORNADO!! LOL WOW

SNOW-NADO!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Andy on March 06, 2008, 08:13:38 PM
My NWS up here in South Central Ky is saying that temps are trending downward. There is need for some revisions of accumulation totals. They are supposed to release those revisions around 8:30 p.m.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 08:14:25 PM
Interesting. Could changeover earlier, has been my thinking.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:14:47 PM
My NWS up here in South Central Ky is saying that temps are trending downward. There is need for some revisions of accumulation totals. They are supposed to release those revisions around 8:30 p.m.

Good to see you Andy!!! :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 08:15:17 PM
Well we have hit our overnight low of 39 degrees here.. Ummmm I really don't think these are going to rise overnight.. :) Sooo what does that mean.. LOL GOOD NEWS?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:16:19 PM
WTH?

New NAM:

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_018m.gif)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 08:18:42 PM
Ughhh.. I WILL PRETEND IT DIDN'T SEE THAT..
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: davisjs on March 06, 2008, 08:20:06 PM
I don't see what everyone is saying is so bad with this new NAM. Seems like we are still in good shape to me.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:20:25 PM
Wow. NAM giveth and taketh away!

Memphis in the donut hole.

Clarksville won't be seen till July.

Chattanooga pulls out the canoes.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Alan14 on March 06, 2008, 08:20:43 PM
That looks to trend even more to the east dont you think?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 08:20:56 PM
I am still confident in my forecast. Very Confident.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:21:09 PM
I don't see what everyone is saying is so bad with this new NAM. Seems like we are still in good shape to me.

You don't live in Memphis do you?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Andy on March 06, 2008, 08:22:08 PM
Thanks Servo!! Good to be on here, and ready to fry up some bacon!! :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:22:44 PM
That looks to trend even more to the east dont you think?

A little east maybe not much. But the real story is the NAM stringing out the precip with that secondary low it tries to build ahead of it. Creates a massive dry slot messing up the moisture transport from primary.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 08:23:01 PM
I think we need to get the Torches ready and go after NAM again. Thats just plain crazy!!!! >:(
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 08:24:00 PM
Oh god, here we go again....
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 08:24:07 PM
A little east maybe not much. But the real story is the NAM stringing out the precip with that secondary low it tries to build ahead of it. Creates a massive dry slot messing up the moisture transport from primary.

Time to open a fresh can of whoop-a## on the NAM!!  Who's with me?!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: mrwilkes on March 06, 2008, 08:24:52 PM
What does this latest NAM show for Nashville?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: davisjs on March 06, 2008, 08:25:00 PM
Well, there is a dry slot there, which seems very strange at this point, however from howers 24-33 it shows everyone from Memphis to BNA getting moderate snow.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 08:25:09 PM
Time to open a fresh can of whoop-a## on the NAM!!  Who's with me?!
Yep,,lets get the torches and go for it!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 08:25:16 PM
Wow! The NAM looks really good for snow in Nashville.
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_SE036.gif (http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_SE036.gif)
I'm working on MTWC's call map. Will be out soon!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:25:48 PM
Time to open a fresh can of whoop-a## on the NAM!!  Who's with me?!

Shall I post this again?

(http://img.timeinc.net/time/potw/20010608/riot.jpg)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:26:06 PM
Time to open a fresh can of whoop-a## on the NAM!!  Who's with me?!

ARMED AND READY SIR!!!

(http://www.universalmonsterarmy.com/e_zine/angry_villagers2.jpg)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 08:27:12 PM
ARMED AND READY SIR!!!

(http://www.universalmonsterarmy.com/e_zine/angry_villagers2.jpg)
We could even fry up some Bacon with those torches too!!! ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 08:27:22 PM
Wow! The NAM looks really good for snow in Nashville.
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_SE036.gif (http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_SE036.gif)
I'm working on MTWC's call map. Will be out soon!

Uh, since I'm in greater Nashville, I guess I'll let the NAM slide on this one.  Don't want to mess with my own crib sit-che-a-shun...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Andy on March 06, 2008, 08:27:31 PM
They have updated my areas forecast, I will share it with you...
Quote
TONIGHT -  Snow and sleet likely, mainly after 3amChance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: Periods of snow and sleet, mixing with freezing rain after 3pm. Chance of precipitation is 100% New snow and sleet accumulation of around 1 inch.

Friday Night: Periods of snow, freezing rain and sleet before 9pm, then periods of sleet between 9pm and midnight, then periods of snow after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of around 2 inches.

Saturday: Occasional snow, mainly before 9am. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches.

Looks to me like the total possible is 6 1/2 inches!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 08:27:57 PM
NAM just SCREWS up at night.. Seems like to me.. LOL.. BUT IM WITH EVERYONE!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 08:28:05 PM
With the low that east of us, isn't a dry slot kind improbable ?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 08:28:37 PM
Check out the radar out in the GoM. That convection is kicking!

Go baby go! More convection= more snow for BNA!

Shades of Superstorm '93?

(http://lh5.google.com/DCRPics/R9CoApkiPII/AAAAAAAAAVs/bJ5-MaUl4Gk/s400/GOM.jpg)

Check out that rotation in the convection!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:29:05 PM
We could even fry up some Bacon with those torches too!!! ;D

ANY time bacon can be frying ....is a GOOD TIME. :D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 08:29:10 PM
They have updated my areas forecast, I will share it with you...
TONIGHT -  Snow and sleet likely, mainly after 3amChance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: Periods of snow and sleet, mixing with freezing rain after 3pm. Chance of precipitation is 100% New snow and sleet accumulation of around 1 inch.

Friday Night: Periods of snow, freezing rain and sleet before 9pm, then periods of sleet between 9pm and midnight, then periods of snow after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of around 2 inches.

Saturday: Occasional snow, mainly before 9am. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches.

Looks to me like the total possible is 6 1/2 inches!!!


Who is "they", pray tell?   What I am asking is, what is your area?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2008, 08:29:29 PM
Wow. NAM giveth and taketh away!

Memphis in the donut hole.

Clarksville won't be seen till July.

Chattanooga pulls out the canoes.

doughnut hole closes up...still looking good for NMS, EArk, and WTN
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 08:29:34 PM
LOL Beth!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:30:25 PM
This is why:

Quote
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
837 PM EST THU MAR 06 2008


00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME...
9 DROPSONDES AND 9 FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE FOR
00Z NAM INGEST...

00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
YSM/71934 - PURGED ALL WINDS...TOO LIGHT


$$

SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Andy on March 06, 2008, 08:30:49 PM
"Who is "they", pray tell?"
They is who I mentioned in my previous post: The NWS out of Louisville. :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 08:31:41 PM
THUNDERSNOW, THAT IS A VERRRY IMPRESSIVE RADAR IMAGE!!! DANGGGG
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 08:31:46 PM
Oh My,, yall are violent.  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 08:31:56 PM
ANY time bacon can be frying ....is a GOOD TIME. :D

I was at Walmart this evening (getting bread and milk, or course) and pondered over the bacon selection for a moment... I am shamed to say I did not purchase any.

CAUSE I GOT A WHOLE BOAT-LOAD IN MY FRIDGE ALREADY!!! YES!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 08:33:26 PM
Wow. NAM giveth and taketh away!

Memphis in the donut hole.

Clarksville won't be seen till July.

Chattanooga pulls out the canoes.

LMAO @ Ron!  Looks like someone else will have to go to the Plains, cause evidently I'm not gettin out of here!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 08:33:36 PM
I dont know what everyone is going krazy about. NAM looks FANTASTIC!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 08:33:43 PM
Oh My,, yall are violent.  ;D
[/quote

We are just Bacon Frying mobsters who aren't taking it any more from NAM!!!  Thats all!!! ;D]
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 08:34:15 PM
Quote
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
837 PM EST THU MAR 06 2008


00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME...
9 DROPSONDES AND 9 FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE FOR
00Z NAM INGEST...

00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
YSM/71934 - PURGED ALL WINDS...TOO LIGHT


$$

SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

That sounds like a serious eating disorder to me... ingest and purge
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:34:23 PM
More NAM fails

(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06024.gif)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:34:55 PM
I was at Walmart this evening (getting bread and milk, or course) and pondered over the bacon selection for a moment... I am shamed to say I did not purchase any.

CAUSE I GOT A WHOLE BOAT-LOAD IN MY FRIDGE ALREADY!!! YES!!

You're covered man! ;D  I ate part of a veggie tray to off-set the high pork in-take I expect to have over the next couple of days.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 08:35:06 PM
Someone stir me up a pot of thunderbacon soup. ???
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 06, 2008, 08:35:13 PM
I dont know what everyone is going krazy about. NAM looks FANTASTIC!

Agree 10000%
Check this out....

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_SE042.gif
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 08:35:26 PM
How many do they usually drop for the NAM?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 08:35:27 PM
I dont know what everyone is going krazy about. NAM looks FANTASTIC!

Yes, it's every snowlover for his or herself at this point... I don't buy the NAM output, but if that's the case,    SORRY MEMPHIS  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 08:36:07 PM
You're covered man! ;D  I ate part of a veggie tray to off-set the high pork in-take I expect to have over the next couple of days.

Your good now,,thats a Low Carb diet for sure!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:36:25 PM
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06_county030.gif)

Nashville gets whiteout. And it ain't at a hockey game.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 08:36:28 PM
More NAM fails

I'm afraid this system is about to make the NAM short out...  :o  :o
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 08:37:21 PM
Shades of Superstorm '93?

(http://lh5.google.com/DCRPics/R9CoApkiPII/AAAAAAAAAVs/bJ5-MaUl4Gk/s400/GOM.jpg)

Check out that rotation in the convection!

Man that's sweet!  I think this sucker's gonna blow up!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2008, 08:38:12 PM
"Who is "they", pray tell?"
They is who I mentioned in my previous post: The NWS out of Louisville. :)

I think he meant what county do you live in?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 08:38:20 PM
Nashville is gonna be wiped out cuz they gettin a white out. OOOOO Who gots the flow, I gots the flow. ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2008, 08:38:51 PM
Yes, it's every snowlover for his or herself at this point... I don't buy the NAM output, but if that's the case,    SORRY MEMPHIS  ;D
sorry for Memphis? I'll be sure to post our BUFKIT in a minute! ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:39:02 PM
Someone said something about this thing...getting to act like a tropical system.....hmmmm....


wonder..... ???
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 08:40:21 PM
Nashville is gonna be wiped out cuz they gettin a white out. OOOOO Who gots the flow, I gots the flow. ;D

Then I am definetly taking a slab of bacon to work with me tomorrow if I am going to be stuck in Nashville in a White out!!! ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:40:21 PM
Shades of Superstorm '93?

(http://lh5.google.com/DCRPics/R9CoApkiPII/AAAAAAAAAVs/bJ5-MaUl4Gk/s400/GOM.jpg)

DUDE!

That's either a giant dragon or a giant seahorse!
Either one is scary, but moreso the dragon. :/

Check out that rotation in the convection!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 08:40:59 PM
Someone said something about this thing...getting to act like a tropical system.....hmmmm....


wonder..... ???

That's what I was saying about '93...

Superstorm '93 actually caused a storm surge along the cost of the Florida Panhandle.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 08:41:15 PM
Someone said something about this thing...getting to act like a tropical system.....hmmmm....


wonder..... ???

Ha! Tropical Snowstorm. lmao
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: davisjs on March 06, 2008, 08:41:28 PM
What is a BUFKIT exactly? Just a regular model?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 08:42:49 PM
I'm afraid of what will become of the NAM, as it tries to figure out this system:

(http://www.theploy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/enotes0504_computer_on_fire.jpg)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 08:43:00 PM
DUDE!

That's either a giant dragon or a giant seahorse!
Either one is scary, but moreso the dragon. :/

Check out that rotation in the convection!


They're gonna need to send a reconnaissance aircraft out soon if that holds together!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 08:43:42 PM
I'm afraid of what will become of the NAM, as it tries to figure out this system:

(http://www.theploy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/enotes0504_computer_on_fire.jpg)

We could cook alot of bacon on that baby!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:44:20 PM
That's what I was saying about '93...

Superstorm '93 actually caused a storm surge along the cost of the Florida Panhandle.

I know..... ;D  We had some effects in S. Fl too, but watched it as it went all the way up the coast.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 08:45:22 PM
I'm afraid of what will become of the NAM, as it tries to figure out this system:

Dude, I found a picture of the actual NAM computer, here it is:

(http://www.bargainsnook.net/catalog/pottery_barn_abacus_toy_counter.jpg)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 08:46:31 PM
I am getting excited about the possibilities now!!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:46:41 PM
For those of you sitting around giddy with snow dreams....

here is a great article written by Nashville NWS' Mark Rose.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/research/ice_storm_1951.htm (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/research/ice_storm_1951.htm)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 08:46:47 PM
It would be neat if it was like '93. I have wanted to see thundersnow ever since I heard about it
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 08:47:10 PM
Now thats funny Dave.  :D  :D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 08:47:56 PM
WOO HOO we broke the triple digit pages and I had the first post. OH YEA.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 08:48:33 PM
I thought I'd seen the NAM somewhere before....

(http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:lBdXOeap8CbUoM:http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/brainiac/Lost_In_Space_robot_body_1_2_2004.jpg)

DANGER WILL ROBINSON!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 08:49:07 PM
Okay, I will assume the role of alarmist for a minute, cause it's so much fun...
Clearly Huntsville did not get the memo to not make any mention of WAA, under any circumstance, less widespread panic ensue:

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
834 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

DISCUSSION
STALLED OUT FRONT CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY  SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.  ALSO...JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO  INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS STALLED OUT FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS  FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LOW  IN THE GULF MOVES EAST NORTHEAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE  ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT  IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK IN FAR EASTERN  COUNTIES AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.    HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST DUE TO STRONG  WARM AIR ADVECTION SEEN AT 850 MB  :o...WHILE TWEAKING TEMPERATURES  DOWN BETWEEN 40 AND 45 DEGREES IN DEKALB AND JACKSON COUNTIES DUE  TO BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH LATER ONSET OF MOSTLY  CLOUDY CONDITIONS. TOOK OUT POP BEFORE 6Z WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...AS  LATEST TRENDS FROM SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EVEN LIGHT  RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6Z ACROSS THIS AREA. 
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 08:49:16 PM
PAGE 100........ YEAH  ;D


But I was wondering.....back at Nashville WX, there is a fued that nothing is going to happen. Is this true. Something about Dry Slotting????? And a bad NAM run. Is any of this true?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 08:49:25 PM
Is it just me or are the temperatures dropping faster than expected????
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 08:49:35 PM
(http://www.news2wkrn.com/weather/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/accum.jpg)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 08:50:36 PM
Why do we need that map again? Just kidding. I kinda like it.  :D  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:51:05 PM
The trolls come out over there on Nashvillewx about this time.

Dry slotting is an issue for somebody, but models not showing a problem here... yet.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Bridget on March 06, 2008, 08:51:24 PM
PAGE 100........ YEAH  ;D


But I was wondering.....back at Nashville WX, there is a fued that nothing is going to happen. Is this true. Something about Dry Slotting????? And a bad NAM run. Is any of this true?

It's all good, Matt... no fueding... I'll let the more knowledgable folks explain, but I think things will be fine.   :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 08:51:45 PM
Sure seems much colder outside.... ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2008, 08:52:13 PM
100 pages maype we can get to 200
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WH Jason on March 06, 2008, 08:52:23 PM
Sure seems much colder outside.... ;)

Yup, 39.2 here in White House at the moment.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:54:13 PM
Anyone else notice that IF these forecasts verify for Friday night, it's almost or at blizzard conditions for Nashville?

Here's blizzard criteria:
A Blizzard Warning will be issued when the following conditions are forecast to last at least 3 hours. Falling and/or blowing snow frequently reducing visibility to < 1/4 mile AND sustained winds or frequent gusts > 35 mph.

And here's the forecast for BNA:
Friday Night: Periods of snow. Low around 24. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow showers likely before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. West northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 08:54:30 PM
As of Right now, the majority if not all of us weather guru's here at the zone, think the forecast is on track. Snow is a go currently.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 08:54:55 PM
WAA, WAA, STAY AWAY!!!CAA, CAA come today
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: JJJackson on March 06, 2008, 08:55:07 PM
my apologies for sounding the alarms...i'll go into nowcast mode...hope we all get something significant...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 08:55:09 PM
AND FWIW, TWC has almost all of middle TN at sustained winds well over 20 MPH Friday into Friday night.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 08:55:29 PM
I thought I'd seen the NAM somewhere before....

(http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:lBdXOeap8CbUoM:http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/brainiac/Lost_In_Space_robot_body_1_2_2004.jpg)

DANGER WILL ROBINSON!!

I love that show!!!! 
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 08:56:01 PM
As Ron and I were discussing earlier, the dry slot could KILL us... I am still not convinced on this one folks.   >:(
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WH Jason on March 06, 2008, 08:56:36 PM
As Ron and I were discussing earlier, the dry slot could KILL us... I am still not convinced on this one folks.   >:(

Someone care to explain dry slotting to us?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 08:56:50 PM
As Ron and I were discussing earlier, the dry slot could KILL us... I am still not convinced on this one folks.   >:(

Im just about never convinced until it starts happening.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 08:57:04 PM
Thats interesting Ron. I have never been in Blizzard conditions.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 08:59:40 PM
Definition of "dry slot"

-A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs.

*maybe someone can post a satellite image of a dry slotted storm*
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 09:01:10 PM
Even though temperatures are dropping I doubt in places where its cloudy it wont drop no more than 4 degrees from where they are now
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WH Jason on March 06, 2008, 09:01:14 PM
Definition of "dry slot"

-A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs.

Well good God...Pray against that happening.  Depression medication prescriptions would skyrocket around here...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 09:01:40 PM
A little messy out in Arkansas...

Quote
ROUTE DESCRIPTION ROAD CONDITION % CLEAR TRAFFIC WEATHER TEMP UPDATED
10 DANVILLE TO PERRYVILLE  SNOW  10  SLOW  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 8:23:29 PM  
10 LOGAN CO.  SNOW  0  NORMAL  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
10 OK LINE TO LOGAN CO LN  SNOW  60  SLOW  SNOW  34  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
10 WEST OF DANVILLE  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  33  3/6/2008 8:23:29 PM  
14 MT. VIEW TO INDEP CO LN  SNOW  30  SLOW  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 8:41:27 PM  
14 STONE CO LN TO BATESVILLE  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  33  3/6/2008 8:41:27 PM  
167 ASH FLAT TO BATESVILLE  SLUSH  0  SLOW  SNOW  31  3/6/2008 8:41:27 PM  
22 EAST OF PARIS  SNOW  0  NORMAL  SNOW  31  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
22 FRANKLIN CO  SLUSH  50  NORMAL  SNOW  31  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
22 FRANKLIN CO LN TO PARIS  SNOW  0  NORMAL  SNOW  31  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
22 SEBASTIAN CO  SNOW  65  SLOW  SNOW  33  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
22 WEST OF DARDANELLE  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  33  3/6/2008 8:23:29 PM  
23 NORTH OF I-40  SLUSH  80  NORMAL  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
23 SOUTH OF HUNTSVILLE  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 8:28:56 PM  
23 SOUTH OF I-40  SLUSH  70  SLOW  SNOW  31  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
25 BATESVILLE TO FAULK CO LN  SNOW  90  SLOW  SNOW  33  3/6/2008 8:41:27 PM  
270 EAST OF Y CITY  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
270 MONTGOMERY CO.  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 8:23:29 PM  
270 OK LINE TO HWY 71  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
412 MADISON-CARROLL COUNTIES  SNOW  50  SLOW  SNOW  30  3/6/2008 8:28:56 PM  
5 BAXTER CO LN TO MT. VIEW  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 8:41:27 PM  
5 MT HOME TO IZARD CO LN  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  30  3/6/2008 8:28:56 PM  
59 HWY 62 TO I-40  SNOW  40  NORMAL  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
62 WEST OF HARDY  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  31  3/6/2008 8:41:27 PM  
62 EAST OF HARRISON  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  31  3/6/2008 8:28:56 PM  
62 EUREKA SPGS. TO HARRISON  SLUSH  95  NORMAL  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 8:28:56 PM  
63 SOUTH OF MO LINE  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  31  3/6/2008 8:41:27 PM  
65 NORTH OF CLINTON  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  30  3/6/2008 8:23:29 PM  
65 NORTH OF HARRISON  SNOW  95  NORMAL  SNOW  30  3/6/2008 8:28:56 PM  
65 SOUTH OF CLINTON  SNOW  70  SLOW  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 8:23:29 PM  
65 SOUTH OF HARRISON  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  31  3/6/2008 8:28:56 PM  
7 NORTH OF DOVER  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  28  3/6/2008 8:23:29 PM  
7 NORTH OF HARRISON  SNOW  90  NORMAL  SNOW  31  3/6/2008 8:28:56 PM  
7 OLA TO DOVER  SNOW  15  SLOW  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 8:23:29 PM  
7 SOUTH OF HARRISON  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  29  3/6/2008 8:28:56 PM  
7 SOUTH OF OLA  SNOW  40  SLOW  SNOW  33  3/6/2008 8:23:29 PM  
71 FT. SMITH TO SCOTT CO LN  SNOW  50  SLOW  SNOW  33  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
71 SEBASTIAN CO LN TO Y CITY  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  31  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
71 SOUTH OF Y CITY  SNOW  0  SLOW  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
I-40 EAST OF OK LINE  SLUSH  95  NORMAL  SNOW  31  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
I-40 RUSSELLVILLE TO CONWAY  SNOW  70  SLOW  SNOW  33  3/6/2008 8:23:29 PM  
I-40 WEST OF RUSSELLVILLE  SNOW  30  SLOW  SNOW  32  3/6/2008 8:23:29 PM  
I-540 FAYETTEVILLE TO TUNNEL  SLUSH  90  NORMAL  SNOW  28  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
I-540 OK LINE TO I-40  SNOW  70  NORMAL  SNOW  33  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
I-540 TUNNEL TO I-40  SLUSH  90  NORMAL  SNOW  34  3/6/2008 6:18:15 PM  
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 09:03:15 PM
Ok everyone cant hug me at once! CHECK IT OUT

(http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=110580)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WH Jason on March 06, 2008, 09:04:44 PM
Ok everyone cant hug me at once! CHECK IT OUT

(http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=110580)

Check what out? lol
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 09:05:06 PM
This link is a great shot of what a dry slot looks like

(http://www.weatherphotography.net/images/fridaymorning700mbrhavn_700_rh_00.gif)

The purple wrapping up through middle tn is the dreaded dry slot...remember this image, remember...lol



Edit - fixed for ya clarence
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 09:05:34 PM
Ok everyone cant hug me at once! CHECK IT OUT

(http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=110580)

That's a real nice red x inside a white box!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:05:47 PM
Definition of "dry slot"

-A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs.

*maybe someone can post a satellite image of a dry slotted storm*

Ask and ye shall receive

(http://media.kspr.com/images/dryslot.JPG)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 09:06:44 PM
I'm wondering what the difference between a normal snow and a slow snow is????
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 09:07:45 PM
We will have none of that here Ron Jarrell! You know better.  ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 09:08:49 PM
Add Hardin County TN to the no school list for tomorrow.

There is no list on here, just a sayin yall.  ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 09:10:37 PM
Definition of "dry slot"

-A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs.

*maybe someone can post a satellite image of a dry slotted storm*


THE HORROR, THE HORROR...
(http://www.geocities.com/aaronbcaldwell/Apocalypse02.jpg)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 09:11:19 PM
That's a real nice red x inside a white box!

I think this is what he was trying to show...

(NAM showing over 6 inches of snow for much of Middle TN)

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 09:11:25 PM
Just took the Brat dog out and the wind is whippin and thermometer is around 39.  It feels like Tropical Thundersnow will be approaching soon. ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 09:11:59 PM
Ronnie is on the ball tonight  ;D Fixed me right up with my post up there...lol
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 09:12:28 PM
I think this is what he was trying to show...

(NAM showing over 6 inches of snow for most of Middle TN)


Thanks for fixing that!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 09:14:47 PM
See Ron's Post below.  ::)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 09:15:59 PM
I think this is what he was trying to show...

(NAM showing over 6 inches of snow for much of Middle TN)


Suh-WEET!!!!!! ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: snowdog on March 06, 2008, 09:16:40 PM
There should be a new rule...NO MENTION OF DRY SLOTTING OR WAA!!!!  What are you people trying to do...jinx us?   ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:16:41 PM
Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
912 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN UP THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING A SWATH OF WINTRY WEATHER FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND.

IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN.
COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...
CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. THIS TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR
FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE MID STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING THE CLARKSVILLE AREA. THEN...THE SWITCH TO SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE MID STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW
WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE MID STATE WILL HAVE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN. IF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHANGES EVEN SLIGHTLY...SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG
THE ALABAMA BORDER...TO AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 INCHES IN THE
CLARKSVILLE AREA.

TNZ007>011-026>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071000-
/O.CON.KOHX.WS.A.0001.080308T0000Z-080308T1800Z/
ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-
TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-
LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
912 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS
ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. EVEN GREATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ADDING UP TO
ANOTHER INCH OF ACCUMULATION.

TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: snowdog on March 06, 2008, 09:18:07 PM
If only it could be an all snow event.   :o
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 09:18:14 PM
We've already seen that post.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 09:18:20 PM
I would hug you if I Knew what you were talking about.  :P
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 06, 2008, 09:18:36 PM
So how do they Issue a Winter Storm Warning? When we are within 6 hours of the event?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 09:19:49 PM
Quote
Posted on: Today at 09:18:36 PMPosted by: Nashville_wx 
Insert Quote
So how do they Issue a Winter Storm Warning? When we are within 6 hours of the event?



Prolly overnight or in the morning is my opinion.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:20:31 PM
We've already seen that post.

If you're talking about the Watch, it was reissued by the NWS. That's why I posted it. Note the time. No change to text though it appears.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 09:21:28 PM
I had it posted but I just added a note to see the one you posted and got rid of mine.  :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 09:21:36 PM
I posted my sites call map under my sites thread so I can refer back to it and it won't get buried in all the other posts.
http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,441.msg20287/topicseen.html#new (http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,441.msg20287/topicseen.html#new)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:21:58 PM
See Ron's Post below.  ::)

LOL. Sorry dude. Fast and furious at C&P! LOL
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: sbradley1979 on March 06, 2008, 09:22:15 PM
Ok, so I live in Springfield (Robertson) and work in Nashville.  As we all know...the weather in these two areas can be drastically different at any given point.  And of course, i have to go to work tomorrow.  What's everyone's thoughts on timing.  Are we still looking at afternoon changeover?  But is that in Metro and not in Robertson where it can happen earlier.  I just need to know whether to take the 4x4 to work tomorrow.  Don't want a repeat of 2003...There were some mad state workers stranded on those highways!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 06, 2008, 09:24:04 PM
yay lol im in the 2-4" yayers come on rhea county(east TN) lol i so happy. will this be accumalating on the roads close to chattanooga? north of chattanooga?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 09:24:28 PM
Now my desktop is saying 36 degrees here in Dickson.  Wonder if it will even warm up in the morning?  Wonder if it will even rain or just start as snow? Wishfull thinking? :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 09:25:14 PM
Take the 4x4. You never know.

Its ok Ron, Long as you dont bring no dryslotting.  :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 09:25:40 PM
Whats keepin it from snowin tommorrow morning? Not enough CAA
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 09:26:27 PM
Whats keepin it from snowin tommorrow morning? Not enough CAA

Thats what I was wanting to know too?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 09:26:30 PM
Ok, so I live in Springfield (Robertson) and work in Nashville.  As we all know...the weather in these two areas can be drastically different at any given point.  And of course, i have to go to work tomorrow.  What's everyone's thoughts on timing.  Are we still looking at afternoon changeover?  But is that in Metro and not in Robertson where it can happen earlier.  I just need to know whether to take the 4x4 to work tomorrow.  Don't want a repeat of 2003...There were some mad state workers stranded on those highways!

Shouldn't be a 2003 situation.  That hit pretty early in the morning... really at the tail end of and just after the morning rush hour (when it hit so fast that everyone panicked and fled home only to be stuck for hours on the roadways).

However, the AFTERNOON rush hour tomorrow may be a completely different story.  If this thing still looks like a lock tomorrow at mid day, it might not be a bad idea to knock off work a little early.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 09:28:40 PM
Shouldn't be a 2003 situation.  That hit pretty early in the morning... really at the tail end of and just after the morning rush hour (when it hit so fast that everyone panicked and fled home only to be stuck for hours on the roadways).

But Here in White Bluff its 34...Sleet can form.....right ???
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 06, 2008, 09:30:15 PM
All depends on the temps up above you Matt.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 09:30:56 PM
0Z GFS getting ready to roll out...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 06, 2008, 09:31:29 PM
Henry Margusity

Now, here's what's bothering me. The short wave across Texas is much stronger than realized this morning; i.e., all the severe weather and heavy snow. That initial short wave will run northeast and produce a swath of heavy snow and ice from Arkansas to the Northeast tonight through Friday night. Some places will pick up a quick 3-6 inches of snow. What that system will do is push the cold air eastward, so the bigger storm now has to run up east of the mountains, a little farther than I expected. With that said, the error would be to shift the heavy snow area a little to the east, if that solution is correct. I don't think it's the correct solution right now, but one that will remain in the back of my mind during the next 12 hours. If you simply take the Euro model that has come out, the snow area is fine, as are the areas shown to get hit by a blizzard.

Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Phil In Scottsboro on March 06, 2008, 09:32:21 PM
If you're talking about the Watch, it was reissued by the NWS. That's why I posted it. Note the time. No change to text though it appears.

Ok sorry Ron, guess I'm hyped up and not thinking straight.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 06, 2008, 09:32:39 PM
the area of HEAVY SNOW will shift east :) lol thats good for TN!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 06, 2008, 09:33:25 PM
do you think the NWS will issue watches or winter warnings further east into chattanooga and points NORTH?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: lyngo on March 06, 2008, 09:33:37 PM
Man!  Thunderstorms have really blossomed south of Miss & Ala in the Gulf of Mexico.... :o
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 09:33:43 PM
Henry Margusity

Now, here's what's bothering me. The short wave across Texas is much stronger than realized this morning; i.e., all the severe weather and heavy snow. That initial short wave will run northeast and produce a swath of heavy snow and ice from Arkansas to the Northeast tonight through Friday night. Some places will pick up a quick 3-6 inches of snow. What that system will do is push the cold air eastward, so the bigger storm now has to run up east of the mountains, a little farther than I expected. With that said, the error would be to shift the heavy snow area a little to the east, if that solution is correct. I don't think it's the correct solution right now, but one that will remain in the back of my mind during the next 12 hours. If you simply take the Euro model that has come out, the snow area is fine, as are the areas shown to get hit by a blizzard.



So what does that mean?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: ultra mag on March 06, 2008, 09:34:27 PM
 So whats it look like for crockett county in west tn?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 06, 2008, 09:34:40 PM
that means the heavy snow band will shift more east which will affect tennessee more
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 09:35:38 PM
0Z GFS out to 6 hours...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 09:36:12 PM
So snowman,

Do you think any updates to your Snowfall amount will be needed?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 09:37:07 PM
Quote
LOOKING AHEAD...00Z RUNS CONTINUE TREND OF WINTER WEATHER LATER FRIDAY
INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY. NEW NGM/NAM BOTH A BIT FASTER WITH CHANGEOVER AS
COLD AIR PLUNGES DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXED PCPN LOOKS TO BEGIN IN
THE MID-AFTERNOON NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST OF NASHVILLE BY
00Z SAT. ALL WILL DEPEND HOWEVER ON POSITION OF FRONT WHICH COULD MOVE
BACK WEST AS WAVE RIDES UP. CURRENT WATCH AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
VERY REASONABLE.

This is the newest discussion at NWS, what do they mean when they say "all will depend however on position of front which could move back west as wave rides up"?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 09:38:22 PM
Snowlover, you need to concur with Henry's map because his snow swath was on top of middle tennessee I believe on his map. So see his forecast.

Its hard to tell matt. I jumped on it this evening because obviously there is enough confidence in the forecast. Maybe a little change but I dont plan on much if any. That would not happen until late tonight if needed.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 09:39:32 PM
0z GFS looks pretty good so far
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 09:41:09 PM
Quote
This is the newest discussion at NWS, what do they mean when they say "all will depend however on position of front which could move back west as wave rides up"?

As the low rides northeast or east, the stationary front could slide a little to the west or a little to the east. See below.

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/graphic/now/nowsmall.png)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 09:42:55 PM
NAM looks a little better though. Looks like a 2-4" storm in BNA from my perspective.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Beth on March 06, 2008, 09:43:08 PM
As the low rides northeast or east, the stationary front could slide a little to the west or a little to the east. See below.

(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/graphic/now/nowsmall.png)

Then I can rest easy tonight even if it does slide a little to the east or west? :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 06, 2008, 09:43:40 PM
(http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2008/snow3608.png)

Frank strait just said it WILL be snowing very hard in EAST TENNESSEE saturday morning. the wind will be blwoing very hard and we will be seeing heavy snow. and snow shower activity just about all day.

YAY! im happy.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 09:45:36 PM
Oh How I cant stand AccuWeather and its Forecasters.  >:( I cant stand the entire company.

Oh well back to reality. You should sleep fine beth.  ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 09:46:34 PM
Hour 36 looks really nice on the GFS!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 06, 2008, 09:47:40 PM
Oh How I cant stand AccuWeather and its Forecasters.  >:( I cant stand the entire company.

Oh well back to reality. You should sleep fine beth.  ;)
Oh, don't get me started on them and their failed attempt to run the NWS out of business... >:(
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: snowwisher on March 06, 2008, 09:49:13 PM
Timing on this moving in(CHANGING OVER) still holding?  About 3:00?  (for Nashville)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:49:15 PM
(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_042m.gif)

Can Nashville say TSSN??

Very close to low pressure center in deformation band. There's lots of lift there.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 09:49:25 PM
Well thats no fun  >:(, the front is splitting Maury in half.Itll probably move west with my luck.I can tell too, Im at 47 while the wunderground is at 42
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 09:49:33 PM
Oh, don't get me started on them and their failed attempt to run the NWS out of business... >:(

AS....IF..... ::)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 09:49:45 PM
wow.  This just keeps on getting happier! :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 09:50:39 PM
Please excuse me.  I'm giddy after climbing tonight at the climbing gym. :D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 09:51:03 PM
I think we are all giddy at the moment!!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 06, 2008, 09:51:12 PM
does any one think NWS will issue any advisories for EAST TENNESSEE?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:51:22 PM
0z GFS buries BNA.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Alan14 on March 06, 2008, 09:51:44 PM
What does that run show for us up here in Cookeville?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 06, 2008, 09:52:33 PM
OMG I haven't been here since like 3 and this has gotten an extra 30 pages!!!!! I gotta catch up and see what the big deal is. We've even changed the title of the thread!!! Holy cow!!! Get the bacon!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 09:53:03 PM
0z GFS buries BNA.


Well let it bury......
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Scot on March 06, 2008, 09:53:34 PM
I think we should change the title to just MAJOR STORM!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:53:41 PM
OMG I haven't been here since like 3 and this has gotten an extra 30 pages!!!!! I gotta catch up and see what the big deal is. We've even changed the title of the thread!!! Holy cow!!! Get the bacon!

*Passes plate*
(http://www.tonychor.com/archive/bacon.jpg)

Want biscuits and jam as well?

Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 09:53:49 PM
Snowlover, it should not start to effect you until Saturday, so they prolly wont until later tomorrow.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 06, 2008, 09:55:22 PM
ooh ok thanks :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 09:55:37 PM
I wonder if this run will push OHX to issue anything further tonight?   ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Reneezelle on March 06, 2008, 09:57:30 PM
*Passes plate*
(http://www.tonychor.com/archive/bacon.jpg)

Want biscuits and jam as well?



 Oh Ron. You are ALWAYS so kind to me. I actually prefer my bacon with lettuce tomato mayo and toasted bread.  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Woodvegas on March 06, 2008, 09:57:58 PM
3-6 0Z GFS continues the favorable trend. My guestimate base on the model's MOS (not Bufkit) gives most of Middle TN 3-4 inches.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 09:58:35 PM
I dont think this has been posted:

(http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 09:58:55 PM
Oh Ron. You are ALWAYS so kind to me. I actually prefer my bacon with lettuce tomato mayo and toasted bread.  ;D

I guess I just don't do anything right!

Maybe you can just get it yourself next time.

What do you think I am a mindreader??? Do I look like frickin Sylvia Browne to you??

:(


;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 10:00:37 PM
4-6 inches!! ballin!!!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 06, 2008, 10:01:37 PM
it dont show alot for rhea county :(
maybe well get suprised. :)
looks like wed get some more because of that heavy snow band setting up over us early saturday.
i have to be at work at 5am saturday morning.
do you think the roads will have snow on them?
someone reply, thanks :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 10:02:01 PM
Do I look like frickin Sylvia Browne to you??


Good GRIEF!!!  Wouldn't wish that on my dog....if I had one....
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 10:02:11 PM
4-6 inches!! ballin!!!

SNO-BALLIN!!! 

(http://pets.onas.ru/monkey_and_snowball.jpg)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 06, 2008, 10:03:25 PM
Yeah..earlier i was thinking 2-4 for BNA...now i think its 4-6..with a better chance of seeing more than 6 than less then 4. Sure hope these models have a good grasp of the situation this time around.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 10:04:39 PM
Ron Howes just said Mix starting at Noon, Change to Snow ...at 3 (or between 3 and 6)....I'll have to listen to him again, but I was surprised, MUCH MUCH earlier.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 10:05:34 PM
I'm going to play the farthest out forecast is most accurate card and just leave my forecast from yesterday alone.

5" MEM, 3" BNA

May be conservative for BNA, but I'm gonna let it stand.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: WXRocker on March 06, 2008, 10:06:23 PM
My roomie just went ballistic with the "no it's not" spiel.  I can hardly wait to laugh in his face tomorrow. ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 10:06:48 PM
Howes may be stirring up the superintendents now.  :D
Who's the conservative one now Ron?  ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 10:06:55 PM
SNO-BALLIN!!! 

(http://pets.onas.ru/monkey_and_snowball.jpg)
Wow. I didn't think of "ballin" that way but thats clever!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: karenh on March 06, 2008, 10:08:06 PM
I'm liking where Murfreesboro is on that map!  

Question though, I don't have any bacon, will hogs jowl do?  I can pick up bacon tomorrow if it's not okay.   :D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 06, 2008, 10:09:45 PM
(http://www.arkansashighways.com/Road/map1280.jpg)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 10:10:45 PM
I'm liking where Murfreesboro is on that map!  

Question though, I don't have any bacon, will hogs jowl do?  I can pick up bacon tomorrow if it's not okay.   :D


mmmmmmmmmmm.....hog jowls, now that's some good eats too!!!!  Great substitiute!!

Anyone ever been to a Lambert's Restaurant??  yummmmm...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dwagner88 on March 06, 2008, 10:11:01 PM
I am NOT liking where chattanooga is on that map. It has been ELEVEN years since our airport recorded more than 2.5 inches of snow in a 24 hr period. it may very well be ELEVEN more before we see it again. im depressed. Have fun in the snow nashville. at least i wont need to water any plants :(
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on March 06, 2008, 10:11:12 PM
I'm not exactly sold on it yet.  It reminds me of the February 2006 bust in the making.

Having said that, it also reminds me of March '96...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: shaq725 on March 06, 2008, 10:14:30 PM
Well, Im headin out. Try not to give me 100 pages to read tommorrow afternoon.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Timothy on March 06, 2008, 10:15:23 PM
I'm not exactly sold on it yet.  It reminds me of the February 2006 bust in the making.

Having said that, it also reminds me of March '96...

Did you see the radar, how would that go bust? Its just too huge...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 06, 2008, 10:15:54 PM
Anyone ever been to a Lambert's Restaurant??  yummmmm...
Hand raised...could be a vacation in itself... 8)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 10:16:00 PM
Quote
...WINTER WEATHER TRAVEL SAFETY RULES...

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MID
SOUTH. HERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT WINTER WEATHER TRAVEL SAFETY TIPS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

WINTER WEATHER TRAVEL SAFETY RULES...

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS
MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON
ROADWAYS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY

IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION. REDUCE DRIVING
SPEEDS...LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOU AND THE MOTORIST AHEAD OF
YOU...AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. AVOID SUDDEN
BRAKING OR ACCELERATION...AND BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS OR WHEN MAKING
TURNS.

CARRY A WINTER STORM KIT IN YOUR CAR. THE KIT CAN INCLUDE...

WINDSHIELD SCRAPER AND BRUSH
SACK OF SAND OR CAT LITTER FOR TRACTION
SHOVEL
TOOLKIT FOR EMERGENCY REPAIRS
TOW ROPE
BATTERY BOOSTER CABLES
BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO
BACON

FOLLOWING ARE PHONE NUMBERS TO CHECK ON ROAD CONDITIONS IN THE MID
SOUTH...

TENNESSEE ROAD CONDITIONS 1-800-858-6349 OR 1-800-342-3258.
ARKANSAS ROAD CONDITIONS 1-800-245-1672
MISSOURI ROAD CONDITIONS 1-800-222-6400
MISSISSIPPI ROAD CONDITIONS 1-888-728-4218
KENTUCKY ROAD CONDITIONS 1-866-737-3767
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2008, 10:18:05 PM
Did you see the radar, how would that go bust? Its just too huge...

What got us in Feb 2006 was an unexpected layer of warm air that prevented the changeover from happening in Nashville.  We were under a Heavy Snow Warning, expecting 6 inches.... got only rain with snow mixed instead.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 10:18:31 PM
Several of us are in CHAT if anyone wants to join.

Click on Chat on the top menu bar
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 10:18:42 PM
Hand raised...could be a vacation in itself... 8)

Yes, never leave..Just park and keep your mouth open.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Timothy on March 06, 2008, 10:19:38 PM
What got us in Feb 2006 was an unexpected layer of warm air that prevented the changeover from happening in Nashville.  We were under a Heavy Snow Warning, expecting 6 inches.

My brother just came back in from Dallas/Frisco,TX, he said they got a good amount of snow there... so if it could happen there, I think its going to happen here.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto on March 06, 2008, 10:21:14 PM
Did you see the radar, how would that go bust? Its just too huge...
Feb. 2006 we had something big like that, and we had a warm punch of air...so you know, after a 6-8" forecast that didn't pan out, I'm just a little cautious to jump the gun, I guess.  I just don't want that to happen...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 06, 2008, 10:21:32 PM
BACON
That can go without saying...I always carry a spare in my car, regardless of the weather
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Shelly89 on March 06, 2008, 10:22:05 PM
Ah yes, Lamberts, the home of throwed rolls, mmmmmm.  Nice memories when I lived in MO and spotted there.  Looks like we all are going to get a good snow ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dave on March 06, 2008, 10:22:22 PM
Lisa just showed PREDICTOR - The Ultimate Precipitation Authority - and it is putting down 4-6 inches in metro Nashville, around 6 inches up towards Clarksville.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 10:23:43 PM
Arkansas has got lots of bacon... especially in Fayetteville.  ;) (go hogs!) Maybe I'll call one of my many distant and not so distant relatives in Arkansas to get reports LOL. I got lots of family in Blytheville and Jonesboro (NE AR) Relatives in El Dorado (South AR), The Ozarks (north central AR) and in Bentonville (NW AR)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 10:24:53 PM
Lisa just showed PREDICTOR - The Ultimate Precipitation Authority - and it is putting down 4-6 inches in metro Nashville, around 6 inches up towards Clarksville.

Ron Howes had the same info, with changeover starting tomorrow afternoon...so there may be schools letting out early at least in MIDDLE MIDDLE TN
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 10:25:33 PM
Its just too huge...
That's what She... well you know I mean.  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Timothy on March 06, 2008, 10:26:27 PM
That's what She... well you know I mean.  ;D

Who's mind is in the gutter?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 10:26:47 PM
Ah yes, Lamberts, the home of throwed rolls, mmmmmm.  Nice memories when I lived in MO and spotted there.  Looks like we all are going to get a good snow ;D

We were at the one in Gulf Shores, AL last year and I was mighty impressed..
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: mrwilkes on March 06, 2008, 10:27:17 PM
PLEASE....someone explain the bacon joke.....

Pretty please?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 06, 2008, 10:28:25 PM
We were at the one in Gulf Shores, AL last year and I was mighty impressed..
We always go to the one in Sikeston, MO. It's worth the $50 in gas to get there... ;) (but that's another discussion)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: karenh on March 06, 2008, 10:28:42 PM

mmmmmmmmmmm.....hog jowls, now that's some good eats too!!!!  Great substitiute!!

Anyone ever been to a Lambert's Restaurant??  yummmmm...


I've never been to one, but I've heard about them.  Maybe we need to skip the beach this year and hit Lambert's.   :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 06, 2008, 10:29:56 PM
PLEASE....someone explain the bacon joke.....

Pretty please?
Hmmm...I think that would be Servo's department...but I'll do some research. Welcome to the forum, BTW!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: toastido on March 06, 2008, 10:30:28 PM
OMG.. This thread is growing faster than the incoming system!  I can't even keep up anymore, so I'm not even going to try.

Bacon.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 10:30:51 PM
We should start up a poll to see what everyone is thinking about the snow. What do you all think?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: mrwilkes on March 06, 2008, 10:31:45 PM
It's funny....I really don't feel like a newbie.  I've been watching from the sidelines for at least a year.


Bacon?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 10:36:24 PM
We've gone nearly five minutes without a post... its getting quiet.  ;)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: servocrow on March 06, 2008, 10:37:28 PM
PLEASE....someone explain the bacon joke.....

Pretty please?

Well, Mr. Wilkes...OH ASHLEY  Sorry, Leslie Howard is one of my favorite actors.  ;D   Back.....Back....a long time ago when this was but a wee little forum and no one was here much but me and Ron....We just started talking about bacon somehow...and then THE BACON took over.  Soon there was a BACON machine in the virtual lounge, and our weather thoughts became consumed around bacon, especially during the snow drought.

Last year, was the Chinese New year and the Year of the Pig, so we thought WHAT BETTER WAY TO ELEVATE BACON THAN TO CELEBRATE ITS SOURCE...So we've been celebrating and eating the bacon.

Plus we had NOT only a snow drought, but a RAIN drought, and a HEAT WAVE......and how were we going to get through our weather woes....without bacon.


And thus, the BACON has thrived.

Many despise the BACON, yet they secretly love it.

So the BACON stays forever.


Confused yet?  WHEW!  I know I am.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: bossfan2000 on March 06, 2008, 10:37:55 PM
(http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_39HR.gif)

Looks like both models give BNA 6+ now...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: davisjs on March 06, 2008, 10:39:40 PM
Lisa just used the "F" Word - a foot of snow in some places

Also, If you look at the legend of predictor and the accumulation amounts there..its not like they put on there 4-6 its more like 8-9 in. for BNA.

This will either be the biggest snowstorm I have seen in my adult life, or it will be the biggest bust I have ever seen. Either way, I will be on the edge of my seat!!

I just hope the commute home tomorrow won't be really bad.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: msdawg911 on March 06, 2008, 10:39:59 PM
Well, Mr. Wilkes...OH ASHLEY  Sorry, Leslie Howard is one of my favorite actors.  ;D   Back.....Back....a long time ago when this was but a wee little forum and no one was here much but me and Ron....We just started talking about bacon somehow...and then THE BACON took over.  Soon there was a BACON machine in the virtual lounge, and our weather thoughts became consumed around bacon, especially during the snow drought.

Last year, was the Chinese New year and the Year of the Pig, so we thought WHAT BETTER WAY TO ELEVATE BACON THAN TO CELEBRATE ITS SOURCE...So we've been celebrating and eating the bacon.

Plus we had NOT only a snow drought, but a RAIN drought, and a HEAT WAVE......and how were we going to get through our weather woes....without bacon.


And thus, the BACON has thrived.

Many despise the BACON, yet they secretly love it.

So the BACON stays forever.


Confused yet?  WHEW!  I know I am.
Yeah, I just did a quick search of the forum, and the earliest mention of bacon came on April 10, 2006: http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,123.0.html
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: toastido on March 06, 2008, 10:40:19 PM
(http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_39HR.gif)

Looks like both models give BNA 6+ now...

Well... if that holds true... looks like ohio will be shut down...lol
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Timothy on March 06, 2008, 10:40:43 PM
We've gone nearly five minutes without a post... its getting quiet.  ;)

I was looking at something on msn's front page, it's showing secret ops badges... pretty interesting.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 06, 2008, 10:42:28 PM
I LOVE LISA, and the 6 PLUS INCHES POSSIBLE
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 06, 2008, 10:45:14 PM
GOOD NIGHT EVERYONE!! Must get some sleep, because I will be headed to Sub at the High School, and then they will turn us around to go home.. Ahhh love winter weather..

PEACE! :D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 10:45:40 PM
That shows 5-8 inches of snow in Mid TN and 6-9 in Ohio. That would actually shut us down more because Ohio gets those type of snow more often than we do. Still the Ohio and Mississippi looks good according to that map. :-X :-X
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: mrwilkes on March 06, 2008, 10:46:18 PM
And now it all makes sense!!  Thanks Servo...


Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Timothy on March 06, 2008, 10:47:36 PM
That shows 5-8 inches of snow in Mid TN and 6-9 in Ohio. That would actually shut us down more because Ohio gets those type of snow more often than we do. Still the Ohio and Mississippi looks good according to that map. :-X :-X

I have a lot of family up in Ohio(specifically the Cleveland area) they are used to it though... so its easier to prepare.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Susan on March 06, 2008, 10:47:53 PM
It will be interesting to see what effect this storm will have on the Women's SEC Basketball Tourney being held this weekend at Memorial Gym.  If any.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Timothy on March 06, 2008, 10:55:12 PM
It will be interesting to see what effect this storm will have on the Women's SEC Basketball Tourney being held this weekend at Memorial Gym.  If any.


Good point....
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 11:18:43 PM
I can't wait to see the foreign models!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on March 06, 2008, 11:34:07 PM
I go away from the blogs for a couple of hours and the forum takes off.... I think we were at 87 pages when we left to go out earlier.

Seems quiet all the sudden - could this be the quiet before the storm?? I am working on tomorrows alg lesson for my son - we home school. I did 5 problems and checked the board - no more posts. everyone must be resting up for tomorrow.

Drove past Krogers in Cool springs tonight - it looked dead. glad we went today I have a feeling they will be busy in the morning. Or no one believes it is going to snow.......

BTW - We went to the store because we needed food not because we might get snowed in for 12 hours or so :)   We did buy some baccon.  I take it around here when it snows we eat baccon??

Now back to alg......
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 06, 2008, 11:40:28 PM
The calm before the storm!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 11:43:22 PM
We're all in chat
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on March 06, 2008, 11:44:41 PM
oops - quiet before the storm did not sound quiet right.  :-[
Oh well where did everyone go?? Maybe their carpel tunnel is acting up from all the typing.

Back to alg.....  and the CALM beforem the storm :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2008, 11:54:50 PM
hello once again from memphis fellow middle tenneseeans(or so it seems)! just got back from a movie to see quite a thread. also nice to see the ULL beginning to rear its ugly head in south TX. have to say GFS has an incredible handle on this initially. meg is beginning to be concerned about heavy banding along and just east of the MS river tomorrow afternoon and moving e-ne from there towards n-ville. models dont always pick up well on the banding so I really think that most will get snow, but that some may be VERY surpised.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on March 06, 2008, 11:56:34 PM
Saw that in their disco ctbpharmd. I think we'll be real surprised the areas that get the bands.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2008, 11:59:44 PM
Saw that in their disco ctbpharmd. I think we'll be real surprised the areas that get the bands.
dont rule out some thundersnow either...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clay on March 07, 2008, 12:08:45 AM
Wow. Some places could get twice the snow they see ALL WINTER from one snowstorm in Arkansas.
(http://www.arkansasmatters.com/wx/web_forecast2.jpg)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Timothy on March 07, 2008, 02:51:09 AM
I've been hearing loud gusts of wind for about an 1/2 hour now...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: DocB on March 07, 2008, 02:57:09 AM
I've been hearing loud gusts of wind for about an 1/2 hour now...
Woke you up too eh?
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Timothy on March 07, 2008, 02:59:30 AM
Woke you up too eh?

Yup
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: DocB on March 07, 2008, 03:00:19 AM
I am awake *way* too early this morning.


Quote
000
FXUS64 KOHX 070845
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
245 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 08Z SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
MOBILE, ALABAMA, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW, RIGHT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND INTO THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS IN THE COLD AIR SECTOR,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30`S IN OUR NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER
40`S IN AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THAT
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF JUST
A FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS, EXPECT THE RAIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD.

ATMOSPHERIC MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 18Z TODAY, THE LOW CENTER WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER, WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. BY 12Z SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL
HAVE INTENSIFIED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER, WITH THE 500 MB LOW HEIGHT
CENTER ON TOP OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND STILL A CONSIDERABLE SWATH
OF OCCLUDED-FRONT MOISTURE CROSSING THE MID STATE.

LOOK FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE THIS MORNING IN AREAS NORTHWEST OF
NASHVILLE, WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST. AM NOT EXPECTING
SNOW TO ACTUALLY BEGIN ACCUMULATING UNTIL AFTER NIGHTFALL IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AS TEMPERATURES EVEN IN OUR NORTHWEST WILL HOVER
JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MID
STATE DURING THE DAY. BY 00Z, THE 5400 METER 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
LINE WILL BE NEAR NASHVILLE. AND BY 06Z, BELIEVE ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO
ALL SNOW.

OVERALL, AM FORECASTING A STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL (00Z THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY) OF 2-4 INCHES AROUND CLARKSVILLE, 3-5 INCHES IN
NASHVILLE, 1-3 INCHES IN LAWRENCEBURG, AND 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE
UPPER PLATEAU. AM THEREFORE UPGRADING THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTING AT
LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION, WITH THE WATCH REMAINING IN
EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      39  26  35  20 / 100 100  50  10
CLARKSVILLE    36  23  34  18 / 100 100  50   0
CROSSVILLE     43  23  27  17 / 100 100  60  10
COLUMBIA       42  27  37  22 / 100 100  50  10
LAWRENCEBURG   43  28  38  23 / 100 100  40  10
WAVERLY        38  24  36  20 / 100 100  40   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM
THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
TNZ005>011-022>034-059-062>066-078>080.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR TNZ056>058-060-061-075-077-093>095.
&&

$$
ROSE
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Timothy on March 07, 2008, 03:02:53 AM
Remember to use the quote button when pasting weather alerts/statements, it makes it easier to read
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: DocB on March 07, 2008, 03:04:31 AM
Remember to use the quote button when pasting weather alerts/statements, it makes it easier to read
No coffee yet - but I fixed it
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Timothy on March 07, 2008, 03:05:34 AM
No coffee yet - but I fixed it

:)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Timothy on March 07, 2008, 03:07:55 AM
I'm guessing 5 inches in Nashville & surrounding counties of this thing... I have a feeling it could get nasty quick.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: DocB on March 07, 2008, 03:13:12 AM
I'm guessing 5 inches in Nashville & surrounding counties of this thing... I have a feeling it could get nasty quick.
The pessimist in me wants to believe it when I see it - the optimist in me is winning out however - hoping for more  ;D

I need to head down to Atlanta Saturday morning and just hoping it stays on its predicted track. I'd hate to see what traveling over Monteagle mountain would be like with that rate of snow coming down.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Timothy on March 07, 2008, 03:19:04 AM
The pessimist in me wants to believe it when I see it - the optimist in me is winning out however - hoping for more  ;D

I need to head down to Atlanta Saturday morning and just hoping it stays on its predicted track. I'd hate to see what traveling over Monteagle mountain would be like with that rate of snow coming down.

You'd have to be a brave soul to do that...
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: DocB on March 07, 2008, 03:29:27 AM
You'd have to be a brave soul to do that...
LOL, I'd leave now - but I don't want to miss the fun (and my boss wouldn't like it either)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Clarence on March 07, 2008, 04:40:59 AM
Ok...couldnt sleep and heard the rain on my window outside....I just looked at the maps and I am growing fearful that by 6pm this evening, when all this is supposed to change over, that all the precip will be long gone.  It is moving in a hurry and I see no way there is anything left over tonight... >:(
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Yazoo63 on March 07, 2008, 04:53:18 AM
I just looked at the maps and I am growing fearful that by 6pm this evening, when all this is supposed to change over, that all the precip will be long gone.  It is moving in a hurry and I see no way there is anything left over tonight... >:(

The precip that will come tonight and early tomorrow morning will be wrap-around moisture from the low pressure center that will be tracking up through the Carolinas, THAT'S where the bulk of our snow will come from.  Don't worry, there should be plenty of moisture around.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 07, 2008, 05:17:39 AM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/graphic/rws/rws.jpg)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 07, 2008, 05:29:16 AM
Winter Storm Warning. I can deal that....oh yeah....I can so deal!  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 07, 2008, 05:30:07 AM
Oh and were at 33 degrees. Not to long, before we switch over! YEAH, I will make sure to get pictures, once the snow starts!  ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 07, 2008, 05:42:37 AM
Quote
Tennessee County
 
Benton County Schools Closed 


Kentucky County
 
Barren County Schools Closed 
Christian County Schools Closed 
Monroe County Schools Closed 
Muhlenberg County Schools Closed 
Trigg County Schools Closed 
Warren County, KY Schools Closed 


Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 07, 2008, 05:44:15 AM
Made this graphic so everyone can see what the National Weather Service offices are thinking this morning.

(http://volunteerwx.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/winterwatches.jpg)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Matt in White Bluff on March 07, 2008, 05:48:28 AM
Snowman,

  I liked your map better last night! But I still think we are getting a little bit more, with us sitting on 33 degrees right now!
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 07, 2008, 05:53:18 AM
I didnt change my call map Matt. Left alone. I dont have time now to be messing with that. I have to keep relaying what the NWS is saying now since we are so close. Gonna be a long day ahead.

Updated School Closings. List is Growing...

Quote
Benton County Schools Closed 
Carroll County Schools Closing at Noon 
Decatur County Schools Closed 
Dickson County Schools Closed 
Houston County Schools Closed 
Humphreys County Schools Closed 
Lewis County Schools Closed Extended Care Open
Perry County Schools Closed 


Kentucky City
 
Russellville Independent Schools Closed 


Kentucky County
 
Allen County Schools Closed 
Barren County Schools Closed 
Christian County Schools Closed 
Hopkins County Schools Closed 
Logan County Schools Closed 
Monroe County Schools Closed 
Muhlenberg County Schools Closed 
Todd County Schools Closed 
Trigg County Schools Closed 
Warren County, KY Schools Closed

Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 07, 2008, 06:07:43 AM
and again RHEA COUNTY in EAST TENNESSEE is left out on the map :(
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 07, 2008, 06:09:36 AM
It just doesnt look as good for your area snowlover, when it gets time, you will prolly go under an advisory or something.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 07, 2008, 06:10:49 AM
never does look good lol.
maybe well get that heavy snow saturday morning :)
ron_jarell said that there was alot of lift in my area :)
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 07, 2008, 06:12:39 AM
Oh, I think you will see snow snowlover, just not until Saturday. That is why they are currently holding off.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dwagner88 on March 07, 2008, 06:13:31 AM
and again RHEA COUNTY in EAST TENNESSEE is left out on the map :(


We in east TN are left out in the cold rain by the NWS, but David Glenn on News channel 9 changed his forecast this morning and decided that we could get 1-3 inches by tomorrow afternoon. He did this despite saying that temps would remain above freezing until late saturday night. I think his temps are a little ambitious. He has us hitting a high of 55 today. I don't think that's gonna happen
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: a1star93 on March 07, 2008, 06:14:19 AM
Jeff Ray just mentioned another model that says we could see 8 - 10 inches from this system  Anyone think this might happen?  Also, alabamawx.com also shows this
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 07, 2008, 06:15:09 AM
so do you think on my morning commute at 5am saturday morning it will be snowing hard? lol
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Storm Central on March 07, 2008, 06:16:50 AM
ok how does north alabama get accumalating snow and we dont! lol thats weird.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: dwagner88 on March 07, 2008, 06:23:25 AM
man it is absolutley POURING outside right now. 45 degrees.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 07, 2008, 06:24:51 AM
Yes, snowlover, by 5am Saturday, I would say you will have snow falling.

Hickman County Schools just closed as well.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Andy on March 07, 2008, 06:26:29 AM
Good morning guys! I just wanted to let you know that up here in Cave City Ky (about 90 miles from Nashville) we are getting lots of sleet and rain. The NWS is saying that round 2 is where the action will be later today.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 07, 2008, 06:29:38 AM
Yes Andy, after this first batch moves through, we will have alull this Late Morning. Then the snow should push back in this evening for tennessee. Afternoon for yall though.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Thundersnow on March 07, 2008, 06:31:58 AM
Well, this is an interesting area of rain that's blown up over night.  That's some heavy rain.  :o

It's 35.4 degrees here in Bellevue.  I just wonder how much temperatures will recover or if they'll continue to fall as the next part of the storm system rolls in this afternoon.

Local media is in full hype mode now.  ;D
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: Brandon on March 07, 2008, 06:35:32 AM
Well I guess there is quite a bit of sleet on the backedge of this first batch. That is what is causing the schools to closed I hear.
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
Post by: tornadofreek1 on March 07, 2008, 06:39:09 AM
Ohh yeah sleet covering the ground Snowman.. Thats why we closed.. Accumulating on the roads also..
Title: Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE (3/7-3/8)
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