Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => TNWx Vault of Fame and Infamy => Topic started by: Thundersnow on January 31, 2008, 06:37:41 AM

Title: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5, 2008
Post by: Thundersnow on January 31, 2008, 06:37:41 AM
This is for the next Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.

It's still a ways away, but there is growing interest regarding possible severe weather between the Ohio Valley and the Gulf Coast.

SPC 4-8 day forecast issued this morning:

Quote

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008
   
   VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE
   DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND ITS EVENTUAL
   MOVEMENT INTO THE CNTRL/ERN STATES.  AS THIS TROUGH EVOLVES...THE
   SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BUILD NWWD WITH SEVERAL
   DAYS OF SLY RETURN FLOW LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE SERN 1/4 OF THE
   COUNTRY.  ECMWF/GFS/GEFS HAVE COME MORE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
   ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE LONGER WAVE FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF
   MORE AMPLIFIED.  TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL SHORTER WAVELENGTH
   FEATURES IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH A BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND
   PROSPECTS FOR A QUALITY WARM SECTOR...THE SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL
   LIKELY INCREASE ON DAY 6...05 FEB ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
   OZARKS...LWR MS VLY...MID-SOUTH...AND TN VLY.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/31/2008
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on January 31, 2008, 09:36:13 AM
I've been watching that possibility for a few days now. Models have been going back and forth with the stronger solution phasing the lows. They have been moving back toward a stronger solution most recently. I think most activity would occur in LA/AR/MS attm.

I'm keeping an eye on it... hope to get a chase day out of this one if it doesnt degenerate into a squall line.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on January 31, 2008, 09:54:16 AM
Yeah, I just found out about this little episode.  According to other forums, there is increasing concern about it.  I don't know all about the nuts and bolts that go into systems like this, but if the CAPE values reach 500 into KY and OH, dewpoints 60-70 reaching north of us, daytime temps 60-65 around us, things could get interesting to say the least.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on January 31, 2008, 10:41:44 AM
I'm going to be very interested in how all of this pans out.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on January 31, 2008, 12:03:34 PM
The latest HWO from OHX mentions severe weather possibility for Feb 5.

Quote
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FEBRUARY 5TH.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Reneezelle on January 31, 2008, 12:42:22 PM
I will Drive!!!!!  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on January 31, 2008, 01:12:04 PM
Quote
I'm keeping an eye on it... hope to get a chase day out of this one if it doesnt degenerate into a squall line.

I'm mannin' the camcorder!!!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on January 31, 2008, 02:24:18 PM
I've got the digital camera!!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Clarence on January 31, 2008, 02:58:45 PM
I've got WeatherWorx mobile threat net  ;D
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on January 31, 2008, 03:09:33 PM
I've got WeatherWorx mobile threat net  ;D
Sounds like a disease. ;D

Anyone got a portable ham radio?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on January 31, 2008, 04:05:52 PM
I'll pump the gas.  ;D

Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on January 31, 2008, 04:12:33 PM
So I guess all we need now is a vehicle...any volunteers??
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on January 31, 2008, 04:18:47 PM
Methinks we're gonna need a bus with this many people. LOL

Definitely will need more than one vehicle if everyone is serious. I always take my truck because I can go offroad if I have to. ;D

I can see everyone wimping out on chase day though. That's why I usually end up going alone.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on January 31, 2008, 04:27:16 PM
..... That's why I usually end up going alone.


(http://www.grudge-match.com/Images/peewee.gif)

"I'm a loner....a rebel."
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on January 31, 2008, 04:30:55 PM
Methinks we're gonna need a bus with this many people. LOL

Definitely will need more than one vehicle if everyone is serious. I always take my truck because I can go offroad if I have to. ;D

I can see everyone wimping out on chase day though. That's why I usually end up going alone.

Dude, if your serious, I'll ride shotgun with the camcorder.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on January 31, 2008, 04:47:43 PM
I don't have an available vehicle.  I'll have to go as a ride along.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on January 31, 2008, 05:05:22 PM
Dude, if your serious, I'll ride shotgun with the camcorder.

Of course I'm serious. I always chase during big severe events around here.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on January 31, 2008, 05:13:06 PM
When is the impending "D-Day" so to speak?  Feb 5 or 6?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on January 31, 2008, 05:14:17 PM
oo oo oo pick me pick me!  I wanna go too!

Ron, I'm in the chat room.  

Anyone else notice the HWO is forewarning the possibility of spotter activation on the 5th?  ;D
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on January 31, 2008, 06:00:03 PM
18z GFS finally flipped back to match the other models. Bringing one strong low into the equation. Looks like it'll definitely be a fun couple days.

Eric, timing not 100% quite yet so can't nail down a date for sure between the 2.

Tala, you're more than welcome to come along.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on January 31, 2008, 06:02:41 PM
Sweet.  I'll bring a camera.  Anyone planning to bring a weather radio/scanner/ham radio/bacon sandwich?

Ron, please PM me with date and time :)
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on January 31, 2008, 07:27:12 PM
Ron, your so much better at deciphering the synoptics than I will ver be, but does this resemble early spring of 2003 I think?  We had bout a week of severe weather.  Day in and day out, severe weather.  It was either 2002 or 2003.  We had just moved into our new house then and I was afraid our fresh trees would go bye-bye!!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on January 31, 2008, 07:36:12 PM
Eric, I'd have to go back and look at reanalysis products. My memory ain't that good. LOL.

I will tell you this... from the vibes I'm getting, we're going to be in for a spectacular year for severe weather. Get your chase gear and jump bags ready!!!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on January 31, 2008, 08:47:09 PM
Eric, I'd have to go back and look at reanalysis products. My memory ain't that good. LOL.

I will tell you this... from the vibes I'm getting, we're going to be in for a spectacular year for severe weather. Get your chase gear and jump bags ready!!!
Wasn't it 2003?  That's when we got the tornados in Smith, Wilson, Rutherford, Putnam and Cumberland counties all in the same day.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Reneezelle on January 31, 2008, 10:56:18 PM
Oh trust me I would love to if my family would let me. They wouldn't for a million bucks though. LOL Its hard to be the one everybody depends on.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on January 31, 2008, 11:04:14 PM
I have officially been given the green light for next week from the missus.  Ron, ready to suit up?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on January 31, 2008, 11:09:11 PM
Wasn't it 2003?  That's when we got the tornados in Smith, Wilson, Rutherford, Putnam and Cumberland counties all in the same day.

Yep, that sounds right.  Everything came into place and went stagnant directly over the mid-south.  Every night we had wind and storms and tornado warnings...oh my!!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on February 01, 2008, 06:18:00 AM
Oh trust me I would love to if my family would let me. They wouldn't for a million bucks though. LOL Its hard to be the one everybody depends on.

If I was single....and still doing my own thing, you would NOT be able to keep me away.  HOWEVER, I don't wish to be single...or wish NOT to be a Mom (I waited a LONG time), so I will have to live vicariously through the travels our own crew.  Wouldn't it be neat, if you guys could get together and chase storms every once and awhile?

neat. :)
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 01, 2008, 06:33:14 AM
I have officially been given the green light for next week from the missus.  Ron, ready to suit up?

I'm definitely ready. When the SPC issues it, I'm on the road.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Crockett on February 01, 2008, 08:50:30 AM
I don't want any weather that causes damage to person or property, but I would at least like to see some good strong storms. We don't get much of that up here on the northern Plateau. For some reason, Crossville — which is basically the same elevation as us — always gets a lot of severe weather, while we usually see the supercells die out before reaching us or squall line significantly weaken. Dunno why. Maybe because Crossville is on the western edge of the Plateau, or because we are butted up against the Cumberland Mountains?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on February 01, 2008, 09:04:06 AM
I'm definitely ready. When the SPC issues it, I'm on the road.
How many people are fitting into what type of vehicle and who's bringing what?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 01, 2008, 09:07:32 AM
How many people are fitting into what type of vehicle and who's bringing what?

I'll be driving my Titan I guess. It's a crew cab so plenty of room, and if we've got too many someone can always ride in the back. LOL.

I'll be driving myself and my Bo knows expertise. Everyone else is on their own.  ;D

Seriously though bring any cams and com devices you want and can bring. Never too much vid and pics shot during a chase.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on February 01, 2008, 09:16:26 AM
Anyone with a laptop and a wx radio would be a good idea, too.

And remember to bring your lunch money, kids.  :D
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 01, 2008, 09:18:11 AM
Anyone with a laptop and a wx radio would be a good idea, too.

And remember to bring your lunch money, kids.  :D

Eric has a laptop. I have a wx radio. Just sold my scanner a few months ago to get a better trunking scanner though, so don't have one if someone else does.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on February 01, 2008, 09:29:42 AM
Sorry, no scanner and my porta-ham radio has gone the way of the do do. :(
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on February 01, 2008, 09:32:50 AM
Yeah, I've got a laptop, camcorder, digital cam, and cell phone cam.  I think I might have a CB radio somewhere.  If we are planning on going, I might have to ride shotgun or ride in the back manning the hardware.  I make a pretty mean navigator too.  Oh have a GPS as well.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on February 01, 2008, 09:39:08 AM
You already called shotgun.  I'm just going to be the freak in the back going "Ooooooo!!!!!  LOOKIT!!"
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on February 01, 2008, 10:03:06 AM
You already called shotgun.  I'm just going to be the freak in the back going "Ooooooo!!!!!  LOOKIT!!"

As you say that, I remember back to one of my favorite movies...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsDSgkrTbus
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on February 01, 2008, 10:12:19 AM
Pulled this from the NWS:

Quote
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR
THE PERIOD SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Are they seeing something that everyone else isn't?  They seemed to be bullish on that fact yesterday, but why do a complete 180 today?  Surely models haven't changed THAT much...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on February 01, 2008, 10:13:15 AM
"Liability only."

LOL
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on February 01, 2008, 10:13:34 AM
Pulled this from the NWS:

Are they seeing something that everyone else isn't?  They seemed to be bullish on that fact yesterday, but why do a complete 180 today?  Surely models haven't changed THAT much...
:o

Wha....?!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on February 01, 2008, 10:16:55 AM
And the SPC this morning:

Quote
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CST FRI FEB 01 2008
   
   VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN U.S. DAY 3 IS EXPECTED TO
   BEGIN SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DAY 4...AND
   THEN EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY DAY 5.
   
   THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY -- AND THUS
   TIMING -- WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL MUCH DEEPER
   AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND THE
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM.
   
   IN EITHER CASE...BOTH MODELS DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
   CYCLONE INVOF ERN TX AT THE START OF THE DAY 5 PERIOD /TUESDAY FEB.
   5/...WHICH SHOULD THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
   SHIFTS EWD/SEWD ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE MS VALLEY AND THE
   APPALACHIANS.
   
   SEVERAL DAYS OF GULF RETURN FLOW ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS STORM
   SYSTEM.  THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AMPLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   WILL EXIST
-- IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD --
   SUCH THAT A GOOD THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY EXIST.
   THREAT SHOULD EXTEND AT LEAST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND INTO THE SERN
   CONUS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR N AS THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
   
   THREAT COULD LINGER INTO DAY 6 E OF THE APPALACHIANS -- PARTICULARLY
   IF THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION PROVES TO BE MORE CORRECT.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL REFRAIN FROM HIGHLIGHTING A
   DAY 6 AREA ATTM...UNTIL TIMING OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
   COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
   
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on February 01, 2008, 10:25:04 AM
Would someone make up my mind, please?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 01, 2008, 11:46:59 AM
Huntsville is buying what SPC is selling:

Quote
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENT PERIODS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER MAKERS THAT BARE WATCHING CLOSELY. THE FIRST TIME
FRAME IS SUNDAY/MONDAY...THEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
TO A LESSER DEGREE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE EXHIBITING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE NOGAPS ALSO JOINS THIS PARTY LINE. THE
NOGAPS ENSEMBLE/SREF/GFS ENSEMBLE/AND CMC EITHER HAVE THE MAIN PRECIP
AXES SHIFTED OR HAVE LOWER OVERALL QPF WITH THESE EVENTS. AT ANY
RATE...WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF THIS TIME OUT WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BY
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

SEVERAL LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PRESENT DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDERWAY. WE WILL BE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MAX FORECAST OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...SEVERAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...LLJ OF 40+ KTS DEVELOPS SUNDAY
NIGHT...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 930-670MB PRODUCING SATURATION...
PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING INTO THE 1.30-1.50 INCH RANGE...AND A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. INSTALLED LIKELY POPS
FROM ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WEST OF I-65 SUNDAY...LIKELY NORTH OF
I-20 SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE IN THIS SAME AREA MONDAY. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXIST AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON TUESDAY. INSTALLED LIKELY POPS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE AN ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE TO
SEVERE STORMS. WILL INCREASE CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE IN THE HWO.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on February 01, 2008, 12:30:40 PM
I was just told of a meeting that I must attend on the morning of the 5th.  Can we expect the fireworks to start popping during the early afternoon hours, or is this going to be an all day affair?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 01, 2008, 12:35:42 PM
I was just told of a meeting that I must attend on the morning of the 5th.  Can we expect the fireworks to start popping during the early afternoon hours, or is this going to be an all day affair?

Timing differs on models. We'll just have to see and probably won't have any specific time nailed down until Sunday.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on February 01, 2008, 12:52:35 PM
Is there any agreement with the models in all of this as of yet?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 01, 2008, 03:43:31 PM
Had a little time to really look at the model runs. As the models show right now, the event would start from AR into MO in the Tues. morning to early afternoon hours. From noon on Tuesday until squall line development around 6pm, TN looks to be in the bullseye for this one. 700mb VV, 700mb winds, 850 mb LLJ streak, SB CAPEs ~500, theta-e advecting Tds of 60'F all point to MS/AL through TN into KY as having a very high potential for severe weather. GFS paints the LLJ over 50 kts directly over BNA with a 700mb wind of over 100 kts in area of divergence and veered (almost seems like they may become backed a bit by current model runs - have to watch this closely) that puts us directly under some seriously hazardous wind fields. We'll just have to see if the models continue to advertise such a solution. If they do, we're going to be in for a busy, busy day and I'm SURE that's what SPC sees as well. Don't forget if SPC issued a SWO right now as a Day 1 their criteria would already be met for a MDT risk area. I guarantee they're watching this one closely.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on February 01, 2008, 03:47:16 PM
Sounds like Tuesday could be busy better get a back-up order of bacon ready.... ;)
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on February 01, 2008, 03:59:22 PM
Had a little time to really look at the model runs. As the models show right now, the event would start from AR into MO in the Tues. morning to early afternoon hours. From noon on Tuesday until squall line development around 6pm, TN looks to be in the bullseye for this one. 700mb VV, 700mb winds, 850 mb LLJ streak, SB CAPEs ~500, theta-e advecting Tds of 60'F all point to MS/AL through TN into KY as having a very high potential for severe weather. GFS paints the LLJ over 50 kts directly over BNA with a 700mb wind of over 100 kts in area of divergence and veered (almost seems like they may become backed a bit by current model runs - have to watch this closely) that puts us directly under some seriously hazardous wind fields. We'll just have to see if the models continue to advertise such a solution. If they do, we're going to be in for a busy, busy day and I'm SURE that's what SPC sees as well. Don't forget if SPC issued a SWO right now as a Day 1 their criteria would already be met for a MDT risk area. I guarantee they're watching this one closely.

OK, here's a simple mathematics equation for everyone.  CAPE values >500 + dewpoints >60 + 60 degree temps + 50kt LLJ with divergence and veering + other factors that I really don't understand and what does that equal? 

One helluva chase day! 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on February 01, 2008, 05:17:25 PM
SWEEEEEEEEEEET


Reminder - make sure your cellphone is fully charged! ;D
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Thundersnow on February 01, 2008, 08:42:53 PM
I'll be driving my Titan I guess. It's a crew cab so plenty of room, and if we've got too many someone can always ride in the back. LOL.

I'll be driving myself and my Bo knows expertise. Everyone else is on their own.  ;D

Seriously though bring any cams and com devices you want and can bring. Never too much vid and pics shot during a chase.

I'm sure y'all will figure it out.


(http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x195/dereknet/twister.jpg)

 ;)

This is the image I'm getting of this little adventure.  You better make sure have a second vehicle and backup Dorothy unit.  And, watch for flying cows!

 ;D
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 01, 2008, 09:08:06 PM
BWAHAHAHA!!! TS!!!! LMAO!  ;D

Somebody start cutting Dr. Pepper cans up!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: justinmundie on February 01, 2008, 10:14:54 PM
It's going green.

Greenage.

We need to have a group viewing of twister.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on February 01, 2008, 10:59:41 PM
I love that movie. I remember when my 12 yo son was little - he had to be 2 or 3. The cow scene came up - he just sat there saying "Cow go round?". 

Okay not the best choice of movies for a little kid. It was too funny though.  It did not have to much of an effect - except maybe launch a (so far) life long interest in weather.

Now I need to go to netflix and order it. Might be good watching on Tuesday afternoon.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Reneezelle on February 01, 2008, 11:52:50 PM
Yeah isn't it funny that I will honestly tell anyone that two of my favorite movies are TWISTER and....... Gone With The Wind.....

And Im soooo not kidding.

  hahahaha!   ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Eric on February 02, 2008, 12:33:23 AM
I'm sure y'all will figure it out.


(http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x195/dereknet/twister.jpg)

 ;)

This is the image I'm getting of this little adventure.  You better make sure have a second vehicle and backup Dorothy unit.  And, watch for flying cows!

 ;D

ROFLMAO @ TS!!!!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: RainCloudz on February 02, 2008, 02:16:38 AM
 ;D  I hope this event does not coincide with my pedicure. drat.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on February 02, 2008, 08:09:59 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif)


Quote
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CST SAT FEB 02 2008
   
   VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DEPICTIONS OF
   MAJOR FEATURES DAY 4 /TUESDAY FEB. 5/ -- BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
   ALOFT.  BOTH MODELS FORECAST A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
   MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THEN ON
   EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF DAY 4 AS SURFACE LOW
   DEEPENS NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
   
   WITH A SURFACE "BERMUDA"-TYPE HIGH FORECAST TO PERSIST...NWD RETURN
   OF GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS FAR N AS THE OH
   VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS SUGGESTS AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
   STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ATTM IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE
   INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY 4 PERIOD.
   
   ALONG WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AMPLE INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   WIND FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...WITH 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
   THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
   DAMAGING WIND EVENT CENTERED OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
   
   FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT -- WHICH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE
   ATLANTIC COAST DAY 5...GENERALLY STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD PREVAIL
   ACROSS THE CONUS THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on February 02, 2008, 08:11:56 AM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
302 AM CST SAT FEB 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH W/O
AFFECTING THE AREA.

A STRONGER H5 WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUN NGT
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE ON TUE NGT. THIS KEEPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST FROM SUN THROUGH WED AM. SELS DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
INCLUDES A CHANCE OF SVR FOR THE SERN US. THIS MOST LIKELY WOULD
INVOLVE THE MIDSTATE ON TUE/TUE EVE WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU THE AREA.

A WEAKER H5 WAVE PASSES THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON THU
WITH A WEAKER IMPULSE ON FRI. THE MIDSTATE IS SORT OF ON THE CUSP
OF FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THIS TIME PERIOD.

MOS TEMP GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT. MOS POP GUIDANCE SHOWED A
GOOD BIT OF DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH WETTER ON SUN/MON.
CHOSE A COMPROMISE PATH FOR POPS.

&&
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Thundersnow on February 02, 2008, 09:27:30 AM
Memphis uses some pretty strong wording in their morning AFD:

Quote
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TUESDAY
...POSSIBLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE MID-SOUTH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE ALL INDICATED.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 60
KTS WITH 500 MB WINDS OF 75 KTS. SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
ARE VERY GOOD WITH LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2.
LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST BETWEEN MINUS 2 AND MINUS 4. A SQUALL
LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY THOUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on February 02, 2008, 09:31:12 AM
 :o :o :o Temps could reach nearly 70 here...wow..pretty odd for February.  But then, this has been a weird season hasn't it.

Glad you made it home from the white n' wild norse country, TS...

Everyone, fasten down your cows!!!!!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on February 02, 2008, 09:38:10 AM
When we went to Universal Orlando, they had a "Twister" exhibit, COMPLETE with flying cow.  It was pretty impressive.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on February 02, 2008, 09:48:31 AM
Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
224 AM CST SAT FEB 2 2008

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031130-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
224 AM CST SAT FEB 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY
EVENING, AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DUE TO THE WARM AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY
EVENING.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: WXRocker on February 02, 2008, 09:56:04 AM
*makes ready for wild weather with no little glee*























'nother cow...........
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Susan on February 02, 2008, 11:10:50 AM
I'll be "Aunt Meg" this chase.  Ya'll come on by and I'll feed you, maybe not steak and eggs but it will be something yummy.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 02, 2008, 12:16:00 PM
Quote from a NAS forecaster source:

Quote
A few classified military models I ran this morning have painted a very very bad situation. Incredbile levels of shear, I have not seen shear like this on this model, so I researched, and boom, popped out a close run to April 7,2006. Temps are going to be in the 70's all the way up to Nashville, and mid 60's to Louisville, with dewpoints 55-60 that far north, and 60-65 in in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. More than ample instability, the one kicker though, low clouds, as is usual this time of year with systems like these. Although, enough warming of the clouds could cause them to break up and allow enough sun to really get things going. I expect supercells, some strong ones at that in MS, LA, AL, and possibly TN, with a likely damaging squall line up to OH, IN, and KY, and then trailing with the front further south.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on February 02, 2008, 12:22:10 PM
Crap.....That is scary.

And....that was 2005..right?

Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Thundersnow on February 02, 2008, 12:41:02 PM
April 7, 2006 was the day the tornado hit Gallatin.

My avatar is a radar shot of that storm, as it was crossing from Dickson County into Cheatham County (prior to it lifting and then touching down again in the Goodlettsville area before approaching Gallatin).

At the time of the radar image, it was on the ground doing F3 damage.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on February 02, 2008, 12:43:10 PM
D'oh!  I forgot it was 2008!!

I need a vacation or some snow....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: servocrow on February 02, 2008, 12:43:57 PM
Thanks TS for telling me gently....I can hear Ron still laughing... ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: StormNine on February 02, 2008, 01:12:12 PM
It looks to be a very nasty sitaution Tuesday.  Maype a 4/7/06 like the above post said also becuse the low is gona cross Missouri into South Illnois which means close enough to that low for wicked shear and close to where the supposed low was drawn up to be in the Enigma Outbreak.  Also we can face a high wind event too with that low close to what we exprinced last Tuesday. 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
Post by: Thundersnow on February 02, 2008, 03:11:56 PM
From the Nashville afternoon AFD:

Quote
AS THE STRONG TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.5 INCH AT BNA ON
TUESDAY AND SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD APPROACH AND POSSIBLY REACH
60. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND A SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY.
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS MID TN
TUESDAY EVENING (FROM 00Z- 06Z WED). MODELS DEPICT A SQUALL LINE
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH...LIKELY CAUSING SOME WIND DAMAGE.
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF MODEL DATA AND SPC OUTLOOK IS GOOD
ENOUGH THAT WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IN OUR ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

So, their thinking is that a squall line may come through with damaging winds. 

The pattern of discrete supercells over a wide area ahead of the front may be more of a threat south of TN.  There's still time to watch this evolve.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 6
Post by: Woodvegas on February 02, 2008, 03:37:58 PM
I'm ready....after a couple of close calls I put a tornado room in my house.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 02, 2008, 08:28:21 PM
Just to keep everyone up to date- it appears the 18z GFS has slowed down the system a little bit. It would put squall line through BNA at around 10pm on Tues. Still looking like a go for svr wx.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 6
Post by: Timothy on February 02, 2008, 09:43:13 PM
Interesting scenario setting up for tuesday night, I don't know if we will see an April 7th type event, but it looks like it will be rough for sure.

+ It's like somebody is rewinding the tape to last Tuesday, only this time it looks like it could be worse this week.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 6
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 02, 2008, 10:46:52 PM
WOW! I don't really know what to say right now except I didn't think the models would trend worse, but they did. 0z GFS and NAM are BOTH stronger with this system. They deepen the low and continue to increase shear and wind speeds at all pressure levels. Unbelievable event unfolding folks. I believe that this is the most accurate run yet since the 0z runs have the benefit of initializing with data from the actual system in the PAC that will jump this whole thing off. GFS actually takes the low to 980mb. Insane. I don't know what to think at this point. This strong of a system may very well end up evolving into a squall line quickly, which is a concern for chasing. Either way it is going to be a very dangerous situation, and TN continues to be a target. There is a likely possibility if the models are on target that we see a HIGH risk area from SPC come Tuesday.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 6
Post by: Brandon on February 02, 2008, 11:49:33 PM
Wow. If Ron thinks its serious then ya better pay attention.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 6
Post by: servocrow on February 03, 2008, 06:50:04 AM
And when I say...prayers for "protection of life and home"....I'm serious.

Those of you who know what I mean, please join me in this request beginning today.  For when "two or more are gathered together......"
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 6
Post by: servocrow on February 03, 2008, 07:00:24 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1100.gif)

Huge!! And as the day nears, other areas will likely upgrade as Ron has mentioned.



Quote
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CST SUN FEB 03 2008
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LA/AR/SERN MO EWD TO THE
   APPALACHIANS AND NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE/POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EWD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND
   THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH 06/12Z.  THIS
   SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   WINDS...INCLUDING A SSWLY H8 JET IN EXCESS OF 70 KT AND H5 FLOW WELL
   IN EXCESS OF 100 KT IN THE JET CORE AND AS HIGH AS 90 KT ATOP THE
   WARM SECTOR.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST INVOF ERN OK SHOULD MOVE
   NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY
   LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN NEWD INTO ERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD
   ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND
   INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 06/12Z.
   
   ...LA/AR/SERN MO/OH VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
   POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
   THIS REGION.
   
   STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   MAINTAINS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
   AS FAR N AS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY/.  WHILE STORMS ARE
   FORECAST WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
   IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD.  WITH TIME...EXPECT A
   SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
   
   WHILE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE
   THREAT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- BOTH WITHIN SMALL-SCALE BOWS ALONG
   THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE AS WELL AS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS AHEAD
   OF THE MAIN LINE.  THEREFORE...TORNADOES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED --
   WITH THE POTENTIAL SPREAD ACROSS A BROAD ZONE FROM THE GULF COAST
   NWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE OH VALLEY.
   
   WHILE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY AS FRONT APPROACHES AFTER DARK...GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS
   THE MID SOUTH AND GULF COAST REGIONS MAY SUPPORT A PERSISTENT SEVERE
   THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 6
Post by: servocrow on February 03, 2008, 07:53:51 AM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
333 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SFC CHART SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SERN US WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE WRN US WITH A MOIST
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE MIDSTATE.

SLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS BACK INTO THE MIDSTATE
OVERNIGHT. THE STORM OVER THE WRN US WILL BEGIN SPITTING OUT "PRE-CURSOR"
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS
AS THE MAIN H5 TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE WRN PLAINS BY TUE AM.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUE NGT WHEN
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA. LIGHT POST-FRONTAL MIXED PRECIP
IS EXPECT ON WED.

COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WED AND THU AS THE SFC RIDGE PASSES THE
AREA. THEN SLY FLOW RETURNS LATE THU WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THU
NGT AND FRI AS THE NEXT H5 SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA...ALBEIT A
WEAKER VARIETY. THE ASSOCD COOL FRONT MOVES THRU FRI NGT WITH A
SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA SAT AND SUN.

MOS TEMP GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY GOOD. MOS POP GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM WITH THE NGM TAKING A MIDDLE ROAD.
&&


Move along, nothing to see here....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 6
Post by: Thundersnow on February 03, 2008, 08:02:19 AM
No kidding... I'm glad to know they see a "chance of rain" through Tuesday.  ::)

Memphis, on the other hand, is all over this thing...

Quote
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EMPHASIS FOR SEVERE WEATHER COMES TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...IF ANYTHING...THE LATEST MODELS ARE
EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID-SOUTH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OF 998 MB IS FORECAST BY THE GFS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AR AT NOON
TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
TUESDAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO SURGE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MID
70S. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OF 120
KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH 850 MB SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 60 KTS. MIXED LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...AND THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER AS THE GFS OFTEN SEEM TO
UNDERESTIMATE THE CAPE. 0-1 KM HELICITY IS FORECAST NEAR 325 M2/S2
WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL
DRY SURGE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT OF ALL THESE INGREDIENTS...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
A TORNADO THREAT...IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. AN INTENSE
SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES A THREAT ALONG THIS LINE.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 03, 2008, 08:04:16 AM
Memphis HWO:

Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-041200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
443 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM UNION
CITY TENNESSEE TO HOLLY SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI. UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY COLLIDING WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES.
MID-SOUTHERNERS SHOULD KEEP TOUCH WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS
CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY.


A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE
FORECAST AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
IS MORE LIKELY TUESDAY.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 03, 2008, 08:47:30 AM
Date corrected in thread title.  Tuesday is the 5th, not the 6th.  ::)

We could arguably include tomorrow in this threat, since thunderstorms are in the forecast (Memphis is actually on the eastern edge of the slight risk).  But, the main event certainly looks to be on Tuesday.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 03, 2008, 10:39:36 AM
Date corrected in thread title.  Tuesday is the 5th, not the 6th.  ::)

We could arguably include tomorrow in this threat, since thunderstorms are in the forecast (Memphis is actually on the eastern edge of the slight risk).  But, the main event certainly looks to be on Tuesday.
*pats ya onna head and gives a cookie and some milk*  ;)
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 03, 2008, 10:49:09 AM
FWIW...The forecaster on the morning package from MEG this morning has been there for more than 25 years...so he has a very strong experience IMO on local events, and obviously and fortunately doesn't fit into the "old school" forecasters we see from other offices sometimes.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 03, 2008, 10:53:02 AM
I must say I think OHX has their head up their proverbial backsides on this one.

This is an insane setup for svr wx in February... for them not to take notice shows some type of problem with the OHX office.

* critical rant concluded *
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 03, 2008, 11:16:24 AM
I must say I think OHX has their head up their proverbial backsides on this one.

This is an insane setup for svr wx in February... for them not to take notice shows some type of problem with the OHX office.

* critical rant concluded *
Get outta my head.

I mean, seriously - the temps are alarming enough.  The amount of instability and moisture means fun things.

I just hope that there are no injuries nor loss of life.  STUFF can be replaced.  People can't.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: StormNine on February 03, 2008, 11:32:25 AM
So what is the timing on this.

 I'm think Noon-4pm for West KY
1-7PM for Middle TN as it looks to be now.

It does appear that the system may be slowing down as fsr as discerete supercells appear in the first few hours (depending on amount of sunshine availbe temps looks good dewpoints not good but cloudcover may hinder this threat somewhat) with the squall line coming later on.

Still gonan stikc with those times I may update them or more than likely extend them.  I think several counties will have to extend school hours to for school.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 03, 2008, 11:46:48 AM
Is it wrong of me to feel like dancing like a giddy schoolgirl?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 03, 2008, 11:59:52 AM
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
914 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

.UPDATE...SHORTWAVE IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS GENERATING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
TOWARD OUR AREA...AFFECTING MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN OUR AREA BY EVENING...SO ADDING THIS
POTENTIAL TO GRIDS AND ZONES. LOWERED POPS A LITTLE IN THE NORTH
WITH LATEST MESO MODEL KEEPING NORTH TOTALLY DRY TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOUGH TO
PIN DOWN THROUGH NEXT FEW PERIODS. AREA WILL WILL BE IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. PROBABLY BEST TO BLEND GUIDANCE
POP VALUES NEXT FEW PERIODS. BOTTOM LINE...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
LOT OF TIME WITHOUT RAIN AS WELL.

REGARDING SEVERE WX POTENTIAL TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SHOWING SOME MINOR TIMING VARIATIONS...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE BRUNT
OF ACTION FOR MID TN WILL BE WITH A SQUALL LINE TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARD. ALSO...AS NOTED BY SPC...SOME SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS LINE ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES. WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z DATA TODAY AND POSSIBLY BEEF
UP OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.


Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: StormNine on February 03, 2008, 01:16:48 PM
There may be some isolated severe threat in northwest Mid Tn what is timing on that.  i know a moist boundary layer couldl ead to some interestign storms tommrow.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 03, 2008, 02:05:21 PM
Opportunity is certainly there for a discrete storm mode early Tuesday until squall line passes Tues. evening.

Certainly seems reasonable that this is a serious situation that needs to be closely monitored. With each run of the models getting progressively more serious in regards to svr threat, any storms that do develop in this area Tuesday regardless of storm mode will have a propensity to rotate. Gonna be a busy day.

As far as chasing goes, we're not going to know if we'll see discrete chaseable activity until maybe Mon night, Tues. early morning. This type of situation could just quickly evolve into linear modes. Discrete SC activity is a real possibility though, esp. AR/ W TN/AL/MS. Squall lines aren't easy to chase in these parts, you basically only get 1 shot. Linear modes move too quickly with this esp. with the roads in these parts. Hopefully we'll see more discrete activity without too much trashing from precip in the warm sector early Tuesday.

Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 03, 2008, 02:54:41 PM
MEG continues its strong wording...

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS   
POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING   
COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOWING A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL   
ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING WHICH MOVES NORHTEAST INTO SOUTHEAST   
MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS HELPS TO PRODUCE HELICITY   
VALUES NEAR 300 M2/S2. DEWPOINTS WILL ALREADY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID   
60S AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE CWA WILL ALSO BE IN THE   
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 140 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...A   
STRONG 70 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE   
ONLY QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. MORNING CLOUDS MAY   
HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL   
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE   
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...EXPECT CAPE VALUES NEAR   
1000 J/KG WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING   
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE THREATS FROM   
THE STORMS. IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT   
MAY PRODUCE WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR GREATER ON TUESDAY THUS A WIND   
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE   
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

And as posted earlier...OHX has significantly ramped up as well.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 03, 2008, 03:02:03 PM
Quote
Special Weather Statement

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
256 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-041200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVI LLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE.. .CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON. ..IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...M EMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN... TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
256 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH A UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST
AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION WILL
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE FAIRLY QUICKLY.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE BEST TIMING FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 1 PM AND 9 PM CDT. PLEASE STAY
INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.



$$

KRM





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
337 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-041000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG... BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...L A GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOW N...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VE RSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...S PRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...H ODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND... MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CA MPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMO NTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
337 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2008 /237 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008/

...STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS INDICATE THAT A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST OF I-65.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER LARGE SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THE LINE OF
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SURGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...THIS STORM SYSTEM LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
THAT AFFECTED THE AREA LAST WEEK. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SQUALL LINE.

NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
PLANS WITH YOUR FAMILY. KNOW HOW TO GET THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING INFORMATION AND KNOW WHAT TO DO IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
YOUR COUNTY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEBSITES AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE AND
WEATHER.GOV/LEXINGTON.

$$

MJ




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-040930-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...MURPHYSBORO...HERRIN... HARRISBURG...
SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA. ..ELIZABETHTOWN...
CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPO RT...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...M AYFIELD...SMITHLAND...
BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ ...PRINCETON...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINS VILLE...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON... PERRYVILLE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...
DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON.. .
NEW MADRID
237 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
ON MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD
LIKELY LEAD TO HIGH WATER PROBLEMS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND WITH SMALL RIVERS..STREAMS AND IN URBAN AREAS.

ADDITIONALLY...A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
POSSIBLE. THE FIRST MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SECOND ALONG AND IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AT ALL LEVELS
IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU CAN
ACCESS CURRENT INFORMATION FROM OUR WEATHER OFFICE AT OUR WEB
SITE AS WELL. HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PAH IS OUR WEB ADDRESS.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 03, 2008, 03:08:46 PM
Quote
...LA/AR/SERN MO/OH VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
   POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
   THIS REGION.
   
   STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   MAINTAINS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
   AS FAR N AS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY/.  WHILE STORMS ARE
   FORECAST WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
   IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD.  WITH TIME...EXPECT A
   SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
   
   WHILE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE
   THREAT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- BOTH WITHIN SMALL-SCALE BOWS ALONG
   THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE AS WELL AS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS AHEAD
   OF THE MAIN LINE.  THEREFORE...TORNADOES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED --
   WITH THE POTENTIAL SPREAD ACROSS A BROAD ZONE FROM THE GULF COAST
   NWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND PERHAPS INTO THE OH VALLEY.

   
   WHILE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY AS FRONT APPROACHES AFTER DARK...GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS
   THE MID SOUTH AND GULF COAST REGIONS MAY SUPPORT A PERSISTENT SEVERE
   THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SPC thinks this is going to be quite the roller coaster.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 03, 2008, 03:13:30 PM
I just looked at our NWS forecast and it says for Tuesday, High of 72 with a 100% chance of Severe Storms...

Hmmmmmm....I guess I'll head to the polls EARLY.  This is really going to be a pickle for voting places that are schools...YIKES!  Mine is.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 03, 2008, 03:23:01 PM
Quote
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
316 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN... CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...KINGSTON SPRINGS...NASHVILLE...
LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO. ..
COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...ALLARD T...LINDEN...
LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANK LIN...BRENTWOOD...
COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBU RY...SMITHVILLE...
SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...FAIRFIELD GLADE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...
MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...TRACY CITY...ALTAMONT...COALMONT...
SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASK I
316 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...AND THEN TOWARD THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE OVER
MID TENNESSEE BY TUESDAY. THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING. A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN 6
PM AND MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. IN
ADDITION TO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

PLEASE MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST ON
THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR
SAFETY PLANS SO YOU WILL KNOW WHAT TO DO IF SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPS.

This was just issued.  Groovy.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 03, 2008, 04:11:31 PM
Davis Nolan's latest post at WKRN:

Quote
Big Concern For Severe Weather Tuesday
By Davis
February 3rd, 2008 - 3:30 pm

We’ve been mentioning our concerns about Tuesday in recent entries. We will have a low pressure center pass just to our north with a trailing cold front moving through Tuesday evening. This will produce a line of storms that will likely contain damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, we will also have to watch the daytime hours for the possibility of any storms that develop ahead of the front. If that happens they would likely be supercells that would contain tornadoes. Our temps will be in the 70s with dew points in the 60s. Last week’s storms produced a lot of damage with a lot less instability.

The National Weather Service’s Special Weather Statement the I am posting below explains the situation well:



He followed with the SWS...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 03, 2008, 04:23:00 PM
Uhoh.

Davis is gettin on the bandwagon.  And of all the weeks for me to have the flu!   >:(
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 03, 2008, 04:27:29 PM
Get plenty of rest today and tomorrow...get some of that liquid Theraflu stuff.  The daytime stuff for the day and the nighttime stuff for the night.    Maybe you will start perking up by Tuesday.

I prefer the Theraflu stuff over the Dayquil/Nyquil combo because they taste better.   ;)
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 03, 2008, 04:58:02 PM
Get plenty of rest today and tomorrow...get some of that liquid Theraflu stuff.  The daytime stuff for the day and the nighttime stuff for the night.    Maybe you will start perking up by Tuesday.

I prefer the Theraflu stuff over the Dayquil/Nyquil combo because they taste better.   ;)
Ah, memories of Denis Leary...."NyQuil, we love you, you giant *&(!ng Q..."
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 03, 2008, 05:07:27 PM
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/graphic/now/outlooksmall.png)

From the NWS, the front showing at Mississippi River in the EARLY evening..Could be the makings for a VERY long day... :o
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Reneezelle on February 03, 2008, 05:17:33 PM
cough cough cough sneeze cough cough sneeze cough cough sneeze!!!

I think I caught Weather Rocker's flu and Im gonna have to stay home from work on Tuesday and watch the fun or go driving in it. BUT then again.... work has a basement.....

 Such a predicament. ???
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 03, 2008, 07:02:58 PM
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
220 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A LONG BAND OF MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE/JET MAX
WAS HELPING PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER OVER MS/AL AND
INTO FAR SOUTH TN...AND A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN
NORTH MID TN. INTO THIS EVENING...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN AND PLATEAU COUNTIES WITH JUST STRAY
SPRINKLES FARTHER NORTH.

LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS VERY DIFFICULT. OUR AREA WILL ERMAIN UNDER
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHILE LOW LEVELS JUICE UP UNDER WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PRIMED FOR
CONVECTION...BUT HARD TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC FEATURES TO FOCUS THE
ACTIVITY. MAIN WARM FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...AND
MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH LIFT AND QPF. SO...WE WILL JUST
KEEP POPS IN THE "CHANCE" OR "SCATTERED" RANGE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN FOR TUESDAY...AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONG TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
GENERATING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO TN...IT WILL HAVE WARM AND MOIST AIR
ALREADY ON HAND. WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROMOTE SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. AS SPC HAS
INDICATED...SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL AHEAD OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPER CELLS ON SUPER TUESDAY.
MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WX WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF SHARP COLD
FRONT...EXPECTED TO CROSS MID TN 00Z-08Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM COULD REALLY WARM THINGS UP ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF
SOME SUN BREAKS OUT. WE ARE FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH OF 72 FOR
BNA...THE PREVIOUS FEBRUARY 5 RECORD IS 71 FROM 1986 AND PREVIOUS
YEAR(S). CROSSVILLE HAS A RECORD HIGH OF 66 FROM 1986.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION TO PRODUCE A
FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
. FAIR WX WILL
FOLLOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MAY CAUSE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM AND ANY OTHER SHORTWAVES LATE
WEEK IS VERY LOW...SO FORECAST WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
ISSUANCE.

Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 03, 2008, 08:07:49 PM
ABC 33/40 blog:

Quote
We are in the first quarter of a four quarter severe weather event that will unfold between now and early Wednesday morning over Alabama.

(Had to work football in there during the Super Bowl, you know.)

The kickoff has been a passing disturbance that is moving into Georgia tonight. It has combined with an moisture surging off the Gulf of Mexico. The airmass to the west of Alabama is already becoming unstable, especially over Louisiana, but the atmosphere is capped off for now.

A warm front will organize and push northward across Alabama overnight. It will be accompanied by showers and elevated thunderstorms. This activity will be mainly after midnight in Central Alabama, pushing into North Central sections early tomorrow morning and northern sections during the morning. With the warm frontal passage…the rain will end and the sun will eventually breakthrough. A lot of uncertainty about temperatures for tomorrow afternoon. I think the average will be around 68. Where the sun break through for an extended period, highs may warm well into the 70s.

Thunderstorms that develop during the afternoon could be strong. We will call that the second quarter. They will potentially be prolific hail producers. Some could become severe with damaging winds. Lifted indices will go negative tomorrow with around 500j/kg of CAPE available according to the WRF.

The big upper trough will be swinging eastward into Texas by Tuesday morning. At least it will be positively tilted. A negatively tilter trough brings higher energy along with it. Thunderstorms will become severe tomorrow to the west of Alabama, especially over Arkansas and parts of surrounding states, where a Slight Risk Outlook is in effect.

Tuesday will feel like a severe weather day over Alabama. Winds will be increasing out of the south, averaging 10-20 mph. They will increase even further during the evening hours. Temperatures will start off in the upper 50s to lower 60s and the air will have a muggy feel.

Instability will approach 500-750 j/kg during the day, especially over West Alabama. Thunderstorms could become severe, especially west of I-65 during the late morning and afternoon, pushing eastward. That will be the third quarter. The models are fairly consistent in their treatment of the instability fields. Honestly, they are not overly impressive just yet, with dewpoints only progged to be in the lower 60s. We really need middle 60s for a big event. But the helicity values were healthy, with both models showing lwo level helicity of around 150-200 m2/s2 during the day, increasing as we go into the evening hours. Supercell storms with isolated tornadoes will be possible.

Now as we get into the evening, instabilities should creep up and helicities will increase also. A long, powerful squall line will form to the west of Alabama and head our way. Evening storms could be severe, as instabilities edge upward and wind shear increases. Isolated tornadoes will be a possibility. That will be the fourth quarter.

Then the squall line will bring a round of damaging winds to the area through the late evening and overnight hours.

Right now, it is unclear just how warm it will get Tuesday. If highs are in the middle 70s and dewpoints edge toward 65, that would favor a stronger event. The GFS outputs a high of 76 with a dewpoint of 61 at Birmingham. The NAM is cooler, with 68 for the high and dewpoints in the upper 50s.

We will just have to wait and watch the system unfold. It does appear that a significant severe weather scenario is likely Tuesday into Tuesday night for Alabama. I would not be surprised to see a moderate risk outlook issued for us before this is over.

Needless to say, all Alabamians should pay very close attention to the latest information on Monday. No better place for the latest thinking throughout the event than right here.

Make sure that you can hear weather watches and warnings tomorrow just in case and especially on Tuesday. Review your personal severe weather safety plan. Know where you will go when severe storms approach. If you live in manufactured housing, have a plan to move to a sturdy shelter well in advance of the storms.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 03, 2008, 09:48:18 PM
Temps already skyrocketing along with Tds in LA/MS/AL.

Jackson MS reporting a temp of 67 while Montgomery AL is at 62 and Monroe LA at 69'F. Theta e advection will continue to move temps and Tds rapidly northward. So far actual readings are above model progs. We may end up even warmer than models anticipate. The reason for this would be the models unable to see discrete mode tomorrow and Tuesday early period. Instead they spread precip too wide and cloud things up. We may be in for more trouble than what the models even show.

From all the discos I've been reading, chasers are pretty much pinning TN and AL as the epicenter for activity esp. Tuesday BEFORE squall line passage.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 03, 2008, 09:49:47 PM
(http://spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s7/bigsfc.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 03, 2008, 09:51:53 PM
Well, I suppose we are going green then?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 03, 2008, 09:58:36 PM
*cries, stomps, throws a hissy fit 'cause I wanna go and can't.*

Pictures.  Lots.  Please.

Meanwhile, I will be holding down the fort in the chat and listening to NOAA wxradio as much as humanly possible.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 03, 2008, 10:14:45 PM
Yeah Eric, it looks like it'll be on.

Tala, we always have a person that is monitoring from a location to give us updates easier. If you want to volunteer, that person can be you. :)

Just got through going over the 0z NAM run on BUFKIT as well as 21z SREF. Looks good still. NAM may be a little bit slower even. SREF progging squall line through BNA around 9pm Tuesday. NAM still shows some discrete mode, but doesn't handle the convection right so I think some prefrontal indices are underdone quite a bit. Helicity is right though since winds won't be affected by this and is still considerable for February if not downright dangerous. If I had to put a bullseye on the map I'd say early in pd Tues. I'd be looking at E AR and W TN, through W KY. To be more precise, a line from Memphis to Jackson TN, to Paducah KY looks to be prime for any tornadic activity. We'll come up with a chase plan Tuesday, but Jackson, TN seems like a reasonable starting point. I'll look at GFS and refine tomorrow. NAM IS showing good numbers tomorrow too, so can't rule out some severe discrete mode tomorrow esp E AR/W TN.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 03, 2008, 10:29:15 PM
I don't know if this was posted...so here it is....

Quote
SPC AC 030826
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CST SUN FEB 03 2008
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LA/AR/SERN MO EWD TO THE
   APPALACHIANS AND NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE/POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EWD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND
   THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH 06/12Z.  THIS
   SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   WINDS...INCLUDING A SSWLY H8 JET IN EXCESS OF 70 KT AND H5 FLOW WELL
   IN EXCESS OF 100 KT IN THE JET CORE AND AS HIGH AS 90 KT ATOP THE
   WARM SECTOR.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST INVOF ERN OK SHOULD MOVE
   NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY
   LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN NEWD INTO ERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD
   ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND
   INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 06/12Z.
   
   ...LA/AR/SERN MO/OH VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
   POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
   THIS REGION.
   
   STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   MAINTAINS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
   AS FAR N AS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY/.  WHILE STORMS ARE
   FORECAST WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
   IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD.  WITH TIME...EXPECT A
   SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
   
   WHILE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE
   THREAT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- BOTH WITHIN SMALL-SCALE BOWS ALONG
   THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE AS WELL AS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS AHEAD
   OF THE MAIN LINE.  THEREFORE...TORNADOES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED --
   WITH THE POTENTIAL SPREAD ACROSS A BROAD ZONE FROM THE GULF COAST
   NWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE OH VALLEY.
   
   WHILE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY AS FRONT APPROACHES AFTER DARK...GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS
   THE MID SOUTH AND GULF COAST REGIONS MAY SUPPORT A PERSISTENT SEVERE
   THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 02/03/2008
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 03, 2008, 10:32:45 PM
From a topographical standpoint, W TN is easier to chase anyhow.  Land is much flatter with little to no tree growth, especially from Jackson towards Memphis.  Plus, Jackson is just a two and a half hur ride from BNA.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on February 03, 2008, 10:35:52 PM
On a related subject ... anyone having trouble getting a confirmation e-mail from nashvillewx ?  I have tried 3 x and it says I am registered but since I have not received the confiramtion it will not let me log on.  I looked in the junk folder as well. - Help:)

Watching Twister tonight while doing work. 

Thank you in advance if you can help with the nashvillewx problem.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 03, 2008, 10:49:53 PM
Chelsea, PM servocrow. She's had the same problem and apparently got a reply from Lisa Patton.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 03, 2008, 10:58:39 PM
I'm curious to see if this "slight risk" will be bumped up to Moderate for Mid TN/High for the West TN/Arkansas area.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 03, 2008, 11:33:50 PM
Just guessing, I would say to look for a good part of the slight risk area to show up as moderate in tomorrow morning's Day 2 outlook (which should actually be coming out very soon, if I'm not mistaken).

It's possible that the SPC doesn't pull the trigger on high until the Day 1 outlook on Tuesday itself (based on what I have observed before... if it even happens, depending on confidence...).  I think the SPC uses high very selectively, and when they do use it, they mean business.  So, we shall see about that.  But, based on the degree of concern expressed in previous statements, I won't be surprised if we see it happen, assuming that things stay or more less on track with what it's looking like now.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 12:03:39 AM
New Day 1 outlook just issued by the SPC:

Quote
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif)

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 PM CST SUN FEB 03 2008
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/NERN TX
   TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z
   TODAY IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD TOWARD THE NRN
   PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO.  THE SHARPENING OF THIS TROUGH
   WILL BE THE RESULT OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS
   INTO SERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH HEIGHTS RISING NWD ALONG THE ERN
   SEABOARD AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW.  A LEAD
   IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUESDAY...
   WHILE...SRN EXTENT OF WRN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD FROM THE
   LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA.
   
   IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL
   PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN INTO SEPARATE WAVES...ONE
   DEVELOPING NEWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND THE
   OTHER DEVELOPING SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  SYNOPTIC-SCALE WARM FRONT
   WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE ATTENDANT COLD
   FRONT PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND MORE SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
   AND SRN PLAINS.
   
   IN ADDITION TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
   ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NERN TX AND SERN OK WITH APPROACH OF UPPER
   TROUGH...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN STREAM
   WESTERLIES SHOULD ALSO AID IN TSTM FORMATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ...ARKLATEX TO LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...
   SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE MID MS/
   LOWER OH VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
   MOIST RETURN FLOW...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
   REACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND VALUES AROUND 60 INTO SWRN IND/SRN
   IL POSSIBLE.  DESPITE THIS MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING...WEAK MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
   SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY.  ASIDE FROM TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
   WITHIN WAA REGIME WITH NWD MOVING WARM FRONT FROM MIDWEST TO GREAT
   LAKES...CAPPED AIR MASS AND MINIMAL UPPER FORCING SWWD TO THE
   ARKLATEX WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO MUCH OF THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   A SRN STREAM IMPULSE TRACKING NEWD FROM THE SRN BAJA/MEXICO IS
   FORECAST TO REACH NERN TX AROUND 05/00Z.  FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
   THIS FEATURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
   ARKLATEX WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE AND ACTIVITY THEN
   SPREADING INTO WRN AR THIS EVENING.  A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG
   THIS BOUNDARY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/
   AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   WITH DAMAGING WIND/HAIL AND A TORNADO THREAT.
   
   ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEWD ACROSS SERN
   MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THIS SRN STREAM IMPULSE TRACKS INTO
   THE LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT.
   
   ...PART OF CENTRAL/NERN TX TO SRN/SERN OK...
   00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM ALL INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD
   FOR SEVERE TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD /GENERALLY
   09-12Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NERN TX INTO SRN/ERN OK AS SURFACE
   LOW/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THIS REGION BY 12Z.  LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT WNWWD INTO CENTRAL TX/ SRN OK IN
   ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT.  AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL THE
   ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF FORCING WITH SRN ROCKIES
   TROUGH.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST SUPERCELLS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN APPARENT LEAD SRN STREAM MID LEVEL
   IMPULSE SHOULD BE AIDING IN ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY AT 12Z TODAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NEWD THROUGH
   THE TN VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WEAK
   INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/04/2008

Remember... during this period, the storm system is just beginning to get its act together.  It looks like the threat is still west of the state.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on February 04, 2008, 12:13:33 AM
Ron,
Sent Servecro a PM. thank you for the sugestion. I know I am not the only one. One person i know had to go through 3 e-mail addresses before he finally got registered.  Hopefully I can get this worked out.
Thank you again,

Will be interesting to see what Tuesday brings. I have a lot of stuff to do Tuesday - but not if the predictions turn out. Not worth my kids or my lives......

Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 06:20:18 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0800.gif)

Prob Outlook

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0800_any.gif)

Quote
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 AM CST MON FEB 04 2008
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN LA...ERN
   AR...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN AND CENTRAL KY...WRN AND MIDDLE
   TN...NRN AND CENTRAL MS...AND NWRN AL....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN /OH VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
   U.S. THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
   DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL LOW INVOF OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS
   FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE SHIFTING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING
   THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AS THE LOW
   THEN CONTINUES ENEWD UP THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   PERIOD...TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE S CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD
   REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY 06/12Z.
   
   ...E TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN/OH VALLEYS...
   WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS APPARENT THIS
   PERIOD FROM THE S CENTRAL CONUS EWD/NEWD TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
   APPALACHIANS.
   
   STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN
   PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND NEWD ACROSS AR INTO THE OH
   VALLEY...WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD INTO AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE S
   CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS.
   
   AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD...COOLING ALOFT ABOVE MOISTENING WARM
   SECTOR WILL ALLOW GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION.  MORE
   SIGNIFICANTLY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE WITH TIME FROM W
   TO E WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH.  BY AFTERNOON...80 TO 90 KT
   SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE TN
   AND OH VALLEY REGION...ATOP A 60 TO 70-PLUS KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
   WITH FLOW INCREASING RAPIDLY WITH HEIGHT AND VEERING FROM SLY AT THE
   SURFACE TO SWLY AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS
   INCLUDING LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.
   
   ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORM MODE WILL BE A MIX OF LINEAR WITH
   EMBEDDED COMPLEX STRUCTURES...AND SUPERCELLULAR.  WHILE GENERALLY
   LIMITED INSTABILITY /MIXED-LAYER CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ SHOULD
   LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
   WIDESPREAD.
IN ADDITION...TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED...AND THE
   FORECAST DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL THAT A FEW
   OF THESE COULD BE STRONG/SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.
   
   PROBABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REFLECTS THE FACT THAT THE
   NRN EXTENT OF THE THREAT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...AS STRONG
   SHEAR BUT VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION.
   SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER
   SUNSET...AS ANY EXISTING INSTABILITY DIURNALLY DIMINISHES.
   MEANWHILE...CONVECTION/SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE ENTIRE
   PERIOD FURTHER S...PARTICULARLY INTO ERN TN/AL/NWRN GA/THE FL
   PANHANDLE WHERE GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.
   
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 06:37:04 AM
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
319 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO HUNTINGTON WEST
VIRGINIA. ALOFT...A LARGE H5 TROUGH IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WITH 2 SHORTWAVES DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.

MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS LOW SLOWLY EWD WHILE EJECTING A PIECE OF IT
NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MON NGT. THE STRONGER LOW HANGS
BACK A BIT AND THEN TRAVELS NEWD INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY ON TUE.
AS THIS LOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUE NGT A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MIDSTATE LATE TUE NGT.

SELS HAS OUTLOOKED A MODERATE RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR LATE TUE AFTN
AND EVE. SVR INDICES FROM THE GFS INDICATE GOOD LOW LEVEL AND MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY AS WELL AS ADEQUATE B+ WITH HIGH VALUES OF 0-3 KM
SHEAR. THUS ALL THE FACTORS SEEM TO BE LINING UP FOR A "CRACKER JACK"
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE.

SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR WED AND BEYOND.
HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT THOSE TEMPERATURES (30F-50F) ARE TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR WE ARE ON THE
CUSP OF THE RN/SN LINE...THUS I HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE OF PERIODS
(MAINLY NIGHTTIME) IN THE EXTENDED PORTION WITH A MENTION OF A MIX
OF RN/SN.

MOS TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL TUE NGT WHEN SOME
DIVERGENCE WAS NOTED. THIS SEEMS TO BE A PRODUCT OF DIFFERING
FRONTAL TIMING WITH THE NAM BEING THE FASTER OF THE 3 MODELS.
MOS POP GUIDANCE WAS IN BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT.

Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 06:46:26 AM
You know, OHX is beginning to irk me with their discos.

They don't really mention the discrete mode possibility. Just that "cracker jack" frontal passage. The past few discos it seems like the day shift has come in and done a thorough job at their discos while the night crew is putting out garbage. Seems like a real disservice to folks that are facing a dangerous situation tomorrow. Listening to radio on the drive in they mention thunderstorms tonight but just a chance of rain tomorrow!!! WTH??!!!

*critical rant concluded - until tomorrow*
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 06:48:46 AM
That is what I was thinking too, Ron.  It is almost like the nightshift can't be bothered with the seriousness.  That frightens me a bit. :-\
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: CookevilleWeatherGuy on February 04, 2008, 07:16:15 AM
Maybe they are just there to 'hold the fort down' until the dayshift gets back to work?!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 07:28:09 AM
NEMAS has us under a HIGH risk area. W TN in bullseye. Looks like Jackson TN was a pretty good call last night. I'll continue to refine today so we can get our chase targets lined up.

(http://www.oklahomawx.net/svr/day2cat.png)

Quote
Valid 05/12:00 UTC - 06/12:00 UTC

There is a High Risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across far eastern Arkansas, far northeastern Louisiana, western and middle Tennessee, northern and central Mississippi, and northern and central Alabama.

Surrounding the High Risk, there is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast.

Surrouding the Moderate Risk, there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from the Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast.

***Widespread, potentially major severe weather outbreak becoming increasingly likely Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf States. Potential exists for widespread, possibly extensive straight-line wind damage and long-track supercells with strong to violent tornadoes.***

***Larger cities in the High Risk area include Memphis, TN... Jackson, TN... Nashville, TN... Jackson, MS... Tupelo, MS... Huntsville, AL... Birmingham, AL... Montgomery, AL***

Synopsis
Evening chart analysis shows a powerhouse upper-level trough over the Southwestern United States, with strong upper-level jet stream energy slamming onshore over California. At the same time, upper charts and water vapor imagery show a lead shortwave ejecting east-northeastward over the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, the strong subtropical ridge remains in place just north of the Bahamas.

Tennessee Valley/Mid South/Central Gulf States
Scattered thunderstorms, some possibly severe, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley...along the left and leading edge of the low-level jet and surface warm front. These will continue to lift northeastward, generally close to the frontal boundary, through the day across the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile to the south, significant mid/upper-level dry punch will overspread the area of concern during the morning, and this will help allow for breaks of sun during the morning. 250-mb RH progs show a strong signal for cirrus to burn off across much of MS/AL/TN from the 15-17Z timeframe. Moderate to strong insolation will result, and surface temperatures are progged to reach the low 70s as far north as at least Nashville TN and mid/upper 70s widespread over MS/AL by early afternoon. These surface temperature progs are backed up by the strong WAA and 850-mb temps of 12 C progged into northern TN. The progress of the 60 deg F isodrosotherm was underforecasted by the NAM and GFS on Sunday by no less than 6 hours for the MS area and this will have implications on moisture content in the warm sector Tuesday. A resevoir of mid/upper 60 dewpoints is available in Louisiana, with 70 dewpoints widespread just offshore over much of the Gulf of Mexico. Continued moist advection will aid in the continuation of moisture pooling over Louisiana through Monday, with 70 deg F dewpoints quite possibly coming significantly onshore in LA at some point Monday or Monday night. This rich boundary layer moisture will be sitting ready to advect northeastward overnight Monday and through Tuesday as low-level southerly winds increase ahead of the ejecting system. With this in mind, and model progs of dewpoints of 60 degrees well north of the Ohio River by Tuesday afternoon, expect that mid 60 F dewpoints will be able to spread well into middle/western TN and possibly 66-70 F dewpoints spreading into a good portion of MS/AL. Believe that models are overdoing mixing of moisture over eastern AL, with 850-mb dewpoints progged to be in the 11 deg C range, and the hydrolapse on forecast soundings shown to be above 850-mb. Modified soundings, based on temperatures from 75-79 F like being progged by GFSX MOS across MS/AL and mid/upper 60 F dewpoints, will lead to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg and SWEAT values of 550-650. Negative Lifted Index values will be found as far north as the Ohio River, or even further north, but above mentioned modified soundings would indicate widespread -5 to -7 LIs over TN/MS/AL once 73 F temps and/or 63 F dewpoints are reached. Steep low-level lapse rates and strong 0-3 km CAPE, on the order of 150-180 j/kg+ will be found in areas that reach 73-74F plus as temperatures cool relatively quickly in the lowest 3 or 4 km...with height...with 700-mb temps progged over the warm sector to be in the 3 to 4 deg C range. All of this will signify a moderately to strongly (for this time of year especially) unstable atmosphere within the wide, free warm sector during the late morning to afternoon...primed for explosive thunderstorm development.

Models have trended more seperated with lead shortwave that will eject out over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and main energy currently over the Southwestern U.S. This will cause the ejecting trough to be less strung out, and a stronger cyclone to develop. Expect a 1002-1003mb surface low to develop over northern TX or southern OK during the early morning Tuesday, and this will track northeast toward the Lower Ohio Valley and deepen through the day as height falls from the ejecting upper-level system overspread the MS/TN/OH Valleys. Strong divergence will overspread the TN/OH Valleys through the day, and this will allow for progressively rapid deepening of the surface low through the afternoon and evening hours. As 100-105kt 500mb winds eject from TX to the Lower MS Valley and Ozarks during the afternoon and LLJ backs and strengthens to 60-70 kts from MS/AL northward to the Ohio Valley, deep layer shear profiles will rapidly strengthen over the warm sector, to values strongly supportive of supercells. Large scale ascent will overspread the warm sector by late morning, and scattered severe thunderstorm development will likely commence first over central/eastern AR/LA/MO. Shear/instability/moisture parameters suggest supercells will develop and track northeastward through the day. Large hail and damaging winds will be very likely, but rich low-level moisture and LCL heights, combined with the expected instability and strong low-level shear will be favorable for tornadoes, a few of which could be long-tracked and significant, as the storms spread across eastern AR/LA and southeastern MO. By midday to early afternoon, strong surface heating over the High Risk area will lead to a rapid weakening of the already weak capping inversion over the warm sector. 700-mb RH indicates potential scattered convective development starting near 18Z across west/middle TN and central/eastern MS. Previously mentioned modified soundings back this up, suggesting that convective inhibition will be negligible at best as far east as Nashville TN and Anniston AL by 19-21Z. Strong instability, rich boundary layer moisture, and strong vertical shear will likely lead to rapid evolution to supercells. Surface winds will remain southerly over the warm sector, and as surface low strengthens, may back SSELY. This will lead to large, curved hodographs and 0-1 km SRH well in excess of 200 m2/s2 over a very large area. An outbreak of long-tracked strong to violent tornadoes is quite possible as discrete supercells track northeastward across MS/TN/AL during the afternoon and evening. Subsidence from mid/upper dry air intrusion and location of the right-front quadrant of the upper-level jet will tend to hold back weaker updrafts, and let stronger, persistent updrafts tap the environmental energy. By evening, cold front will be approaching the MS River. Increased forcing along the front will lead to storms organizing into an extensive squall line from the OH River to southern Louisiana. This line of storms will pose a threat of widespread, possibly extensive wind damage as it tracks eastward across the HIGH/MDT risk areas. A threat of isolated tornadoes will persist with the line from TN southward through the overnight as it tracks eastward. Due to later timing of convective line across the threat area, there is a longer window of opportunity for storms ahead of the line to remain discrete. Strong tornado threat will remain until nocturnal inversion develops over east AL/GA by late evening...with any discrete, sustained storm structures that remain.

Ohio Valley
Second, but more uncertain, area of concern is across central/southern IN/OH. This area will be close to the surface low track and warm front, so vertical shear profiles will be strongly supportive of supercells and possible tornadoes. Uncertainty remains in the amount of destabilization that occurs. Models indicate 0-3 km CAPE possibly climbing into the 100-130 j/kg range, and this coupled with low 60 F dewpoints will lead to an isolated tornado threat with any bowing structures or supercells that track across the area. An isolated significant tornado or two is not out of the question. As issues regarding destabilization become more apparent, this region may be upgraded to a Moderate Risk in later outlooks.


GOSSAGE

Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 07:42:34 AM
Can someone explain to me what "cracker jack" means here anyway?  ???

The situation is a little too serious to be talking code and masking things with figures of speech, IMO.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 07:47:31 AM
Can someone explain to me what "cracker jack" means here anyway?  ???

The situation is a little too serious to be talking code and masking things with figures of speech, IMO.

You're preachin to the choir brother.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 07:56:40 AM
I just heard thunder in Bellevue!  :o

It seems that we may be in for some pretty good elevated activity today.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:00:06 AM
I just heard thunder in Bellevue!  :o

It seems that we may be in for some pretty good elevated activity today.

Small hail seems only concern with convection attm due to WBZ height.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 08:02:50 AM
We've had a couple of thundershowers this morning.....um...dare I say, more of the "cracker jack" variety  ;) 

Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:02:59 AM
Quote
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
708 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041500-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN... CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...KINGSTON SPRINGS...NASHVILLE...
LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO. ..
COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...ALLARD T...LINDEN...
LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANK LIN...BRENTWOOD...
COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBU RY...SMITHVILLE...
SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...FAIRFIELD GLADE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...
MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...TRACY CITY...ALTAMONT...COALMONT...
SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASK I
708 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 900 AM. INDIVIDUAL
CELLS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 35 MILES AN HOUR.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:04:03 AM
We've had a couple of thundershowers this morning.....um...dare I say, more of the "cracker jack" variety  ;) 



I have no idea what that means. I think I'd prefer the 'fiddle faddle' variety, maybe even 'poppycock' variety. Absolute nonsense is what it is.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 08:09:31 AM
I have heard the term "Popcorn-variety" thunderstorms...so maybe "cracker jack" is popcorn with something ADDED...

I haven't a clue.....

 :-\
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 08:13:58 AM
There are no SWS or HWO Statements from OHX either for today yet either....

*shakes head*
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 04, 2008, 08:18:01 AM
Obviously another "old school" forecaster at OHX this morning. When you're still calling SPC "SELS"...thats a clear indication.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 04, 2008, 08:20:07 AM
And not to boast my own office, but since it hasn't been posted as of yet...MEG continues putting out quality discussions...
Quote
THE GREATER EMPHASIS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY 
AND TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL 
FOR A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS 
THE MID-SOUTH TUESDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED 
MOST OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK FOR TUESDAY. A STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID-SOUTH GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE 
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT STRENGTHENS. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE FROM SOUTHERN OK TO SOUTHERN IL DEEPENING TO 998 MB AS 
INDICATED BY THE GFS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EAST 
AR DURING THE AFTERNOON REACHING THE TN RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. 
UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR ALONG WITH A STRONG WIND 
FIELD WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. LIFTED 
INDICES ARE FORECAST NEAR MINUS 4 WITH CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 
J/KG. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KT 
JET IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB WINDS ARE 
FORECAST NEAR 60 KTS. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS 
INDICATED WITH 0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 250 M2/S2 AND 0 TO 3 KM 
HELICITY AROUND 350 M2/S2. DISCREET SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER BY NOON...SPREADING ACROSS 
THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE DAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALONG 
WITH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES CAN EXPECTED FROM THESE SUPERCELLS. 
IN ADDITION...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF 
THE COLD FRONT...SWEEPING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED 
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL LINE. MID-SOUTHERNERS 
SHOULD KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THE 
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...GRADIENT SOUTH 
WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE 
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...A WIND 
ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:20:56 AM
Fail to even mention possibility of convection firing well ahead of the line.

*slaps forehead*

Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-051130-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
530 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DUE TO THE WARM AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR SOME OF THESE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
 
 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:23:25 AM
Can we get some foks from MEG to transfer to OHX and tell the curmudgeons to retire?

I'm not going to post them all, but BMX and HUN have great discussions up as well as deserved HWOs.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 04, 2008, 08:25:46 AM
Good Morning folks...tomorrow is shaping up to be a real doozie.  If we get a.m. sun, look out.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 08:26:37 AM
Obviously another "old school" forecaster at OHX this morning. When you're still calling SPC "SELS"...thats a clear indication.

I noticed that and thought it was odd.  :-\
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 08:38:42 AM
Memphis HWO:

Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
512 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-051200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
512 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE RISK AREA
IS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FORREST CITY ARKANSAS
TO TIPTONVILLE TENNESSEE. THE BEST TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

A WIND ADVISORY HAD BEEN POSTED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM. THE WIND ADVISORY
AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WYNNE ARKANSAS TO
KENNETT MISSOURI. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH TUESDAY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER
10 AM...SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST ARKANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST OF THE MID-SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. UNSEASONABLY
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS SEVERE...IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 45 MPH
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH...BUT IS MORE LIKELY TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

$$

JCL
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:50:42 AM
12z NAM looks on track for an outbreak of severe. Looking like we'll see some strong, long track tornados tomorrow within the risk area. If anything a quick look at the latest NAM has it progging more instability than 0z. I'll take a more indepth look at it to get some specifics together and post an article when the 12z GFS comes out.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 08:52:22 AM
Ron, Jeff replied to you, BTW.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 08:54:15 AM
Why is Jeff saying that SVR tstorms won't happen until the overnight period between tuesday/wednesday, that really disagrees with what the SPC is saying, that really makes me scratch my head, its like he's trying to downplay it.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 04, 2008, 08:58:41 AM
I think it is just typical of our locals.  No harm intended, but he is an on air weather personality...I put more faith in the folks with doctorates in atmospheric sciences.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:00:46 AM
Why is Jeff saying that SVR tstorms won't happen until the overnight period between tuesday/wednesday, that really disagrees with what the SPC is saying, that really makes me scratch my head, its like he's trying to downplay it.

I think he doesn't see instability available until low gets a bit closer. Either that or cap is so weak we rain out the air column and don't allow enough insolation and end up with a soupy mess. He doesn't really explain more.  ::)
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 09:00:58 AM
Is there a site that would have a "forecast" visible satellite map for tomorrow? I'm curious about something and want to look at it.

T, I don't get it....I was watching James Spann's vid this morning and he went through all the instability models (I can't remember them all) and the chance will be there, but it could just as easily be a bust too.

I guess they don't want to get people worked up into a lather....

Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 09:02:27 AM
I just don't get why the SPC would place us under a moderate risk unless they thought something was going to happen apparently Jeff Ray + Nashville NWS does not agree with them.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 09:13:09 AM
Well, remember we had a situation last year.  We were actually under a HIGH risk, I believe and under a PDS watch for most of the day, but the storms never got as bad as was forecast.  I can't remember if that was a February or March event.  So, sometimes it happens.

But then we weren't forecast to be in the 70's that day either like we are tomorrow.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:25:33 AM
March 1 is what you're referring to servo.
It did produce tornados in AL, GA, FL, and IL. Killed almost 20 people I believe. We just didn't see any of the action in TN except for some wind damage IIRC.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 09:30:24 AM
Yep....I knew it was bad SOMEWHERE..couldn't 'zackly 'member where....Hey, I'm lucky I even got the year right after yesterday!!! ;D ;D ;D  Or was that Saturday????????

yep.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 09:40:16 AM
*wanders in, reads through NyQuil glazed eyes and sniffles*
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2008, 09:53:40 AM
Thinking about tomorrow, I'm not going to get into specifics because neither smart enough nor brave enough I am, all the models are saying the same thing.  The same thing they have said for about a week now.  REALLY BAD WEATHER!!  It makes no sense why our local on-air "personalities" haven't mentioned at least the POSSIBILITY of intensely severe weather...not to mention the threat of long-track tornadoes.  This is shaping up to be a most dangerous situation and the talking heads we depend on seem like they could give a rats @$$ about it.  It's also a crying shame to see that our local NWS office has "their heads up their proverbial rear-ends" (Thanks Ron) and they seem oblivious as well.  WTF is going on here?  Are they seeing something that we're not?  I wish they would tell US.  It sucks we have to depend on other NWS offices (Thanks to HUN and MEG) to keep us in the loop.  If I wasn't getting things ready to go out tomorrow, I would be truly concerned about tomorrow.  I still am, but more with my wife since she's by herself.  I just think these yahoo's at these media outlets and local weather offices could do a little bit better job of getting word out than waiting until an F4 tornado is on the ground bearing down on SmallTown USA before they realize,"Oops, maybe we should've said something.  Anybody seen my Snoopy stapler?"

*Eric gets off his soapbox*
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 10:01:36 AM
*applauds Eric's rant*  Very good....I even called my parents in KY because they were planning on being at their trailer by Nolin River (around Mammoth Cave) today and tomorrow.  Tomorrow is my StepMom's b-day.  They don't keep up with the weather stuff like I do..*sighs and hangs head*...Fortunately, they had decided to stay around the house, but I told them to pay attention to what was going on tomorrow..and to tell my siblings (most of them aren't speaking to me anyhow...*insert long sad story with violins here*) because many of them won't pay attention either.

Well, we'll see if the "shift change" garners any different result today as well.  Davis' posts are generally more strongly worded.  Also, the later OHX posts seem to be beefed up as we saw from yesterday.

It does send mixed messages though.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 10:01:41 AM
Testify Brother~!

Seriously, I agree.  You'd think that OHX would have something other to say than "Yeah, we're going to have some thunderstorms, maybe a few severe."

:o
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 10:16:56 AM
I suspect many of the local TV mets take their queues from OHX.

So, if there is a problem there, it propagates to the local TV affiliates.

It's hard to totally blame them though... I suspect they feel pressure not to deviate too much from what the NWS is saying.  And, in some cases, it's just easier to only repeat what the NWS is saying anyway (especially, if said forecasters are not proficient at really looking at the data and models).

I usually have greater respect for the mets on WKRN though, compare to others... especially the local FOX affiliate, which is basically an Accuweather affiliate (which really says it all  ::) ).
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 10:22:22 AM
It's raining pretty hard where I'm at now.  I suspect we'll see some pretty good rainfall totals just from today's activity.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 10:28:30 AM
We should be getting the last round of rain here shortly.  We've had rain since about 7:30.  I'm a little dismayed about all my weather "equipment"..Just about everything that was bought for me...ahem...and the radio I bought are NOT working now as they should.  I have re-checked my radio settings three times.  I still get the "check reception" message and it doesn't go off for the watches/warnings etc.  OR the weekly testing anymore.  I'm not sure what happened to it.  I have moved it to a couple of different places in the house. 

 :-\
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 10:32:49 AM
Yikes servo. :(

That's no fun at all.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 10:44:20 AM
SPC's morning update of SWO Day 1 out - enlarged SLT risk area

(http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif)
Quote
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1028 AM CST MON FEB 04 2008
   
   VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM N
   TX TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ESEWD FROM SRN CA TOWARD SRN AZ/NM AND NRN
   MEXICO BY TONIGHT.  DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH...THE
   REMNANTS OF A BROAD LEE CYCLONE ACROSS WRN KS WILL DEVELOP SWD
   ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...THEN EWD INTO NW TX BY 05/12Z AS
   THE SRN ROCKIES TROUGH APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  A SEPARATE
   SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.  THESE SPEED MAXIMA
   WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WAVE ON THE DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS
   LIFTING NWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TOWARD MI.
   
   SEVERAL DIFFERENT EPISODES OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER A RATHER BROAD AREA FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS TO THE MS/OH VALLEYS.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST
   IS RATHER HIGH GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND ONLY SUBTLE PROCESSES TO FOCUS
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...NE IL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING ENEWD OVER NRN IL IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM IA TO WI.  THE
   CONVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY A FEED OF RELATIVELY MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES FROM THE SW AND MUCAPE OF ROUGHLY 500 J/KG BASED NEAR
   850 MB.  HOWEVER...THE HAIL THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY PEAKED
   WITH THIS CONVECTION...AND ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NE IL/NW INDIANA AND PERHAPS
   EXTREME SW LOWER MI.
   
   ...NE AR TO LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY TONIGHT...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE SWLYS FROM NRN
   MEXICO NEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND THIS BELT SHOULD SHIFT
   SLOWLY NWD THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THE AMPLIFYING SRN ROCKIES TROUGH.  A SPEED MAXIMUM APPEARS TO
   BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW NEAR THE TX BIG BEND...AND THIS SYSTEM
   WILL MOVE NEWD TO AR BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. 
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND DAYTIME HEATING
   WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
   J/KG...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE
   PRIMARY CONCERN IN THIS AREA WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT DEEP CONVECTION
   WILL FORM THIS AREA...GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP
   SPREADING NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND NO OBVIOUS LOW-LEVEL FOCUS
   FOR INITIATION.  IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST
   AXIS...SUPERCELLS WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...
   THE CYCLOGENESIS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER TX/OK WILL
   LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT /06-12Z/ ALONG
   THE W EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY FROM N TX INTO OK.  STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT STORMS
   WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STRONG FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
   FLOW/SHEAR LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT /NEAR I-44 IN OK/
   SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE RATHER QUICKLY INTO A LARGE
   CLUSTER/BAND ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY 05/12Z.  EVEN THOUGH A
   LINEAR MODE APPEARS MOST PROBABLE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN
   ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 02/04/2008
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 10:57:19 AM
Looking at the vis sat, there are breaks in the clouds...so I guess the priming will begin.....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 11:11:07 AM
Based on the latest SPC outlook, I fear that dangerous storms with tornadoes could begin to threaten West TN (and those other areas highlighted)... during the overnight hours.  :(
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 11:14:56 AM
Current temperature in Dyersburg... 70.  Memphis... 72.  :o

Dew point in memphis is up to 65 now.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 04, 2008, 11:17:42 AM
http://www.wvlightning.com

This is a friend of mine's website.  He is big into chasing.  Looks like he is heading to northern Kentucky/southern Indiana to chase tomorrow.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 11:20:27 AM
Current temperature in Dyersburg... 70.  Memphis... 72.  :o

Dew point in memphis is up to 65 now.

I warned before that the models were underdoing the WAA and missing MAX temps due to clouding out warm sector and souping it up. It appears we're already seeing that happen today.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 11:22:23 AM
*makes ready the munchies, drinks and wxradio for tomorrow.*

Remember gang - charge up your radios and phones, laptops, and other misc. toys needed for tomorrow!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 11:26:09 AM
The SPC just updated the Day 2 outlook.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif)

Notice that the moderate risk has been expanded a bit.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 11:27:54 AM
Wow TS.  That looks a bit different from the one I saw earlier.  We're so in there.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 04, 2008, 11:30:01 AM
Keep an eye on the mlcapes...shooting for 1000j/kg but if they trend toward 1500, we seriously need to look out.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 11:30:19 AM
Worrisome wording in this update...

Quote
  DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CST MON FEB 04 2008
  
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR...SERN MO...SRN
   IL...SRN IN...CENTRAL AND WRN KY...MIDDLE AND WRN TN...PARTS OF NRN
   AND WRN AL...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN MS...PARTS OF NRN LA......
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS
   INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS AND TN/OH VALLEYS......
  
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK LIKELY OVER LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH
   CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY...

  
   THE LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY WRN U.S. WILL AGGRESSIVELY MOVE FROM
   SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY TUE AS VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM
   ENTERS PAC NW.
  
   AN UNSEASONABLY LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY
   AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NRN TX AND TO THE S OF FRONTAL
   ZONE THAT EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS MID MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS.
  
   WITH 60F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE NWD TO FRONTAL ZONE AS FAR E AS SRN
   IN/OH AND MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS GULF STATES FROM ERN TX TO AL...THE
   THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE
   PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.
  
   MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IN EXCESS OF 100KT WILL TRACK FROM SRN
   PLAINS TO LOWER OH/WRN TN VALLEYS BY TUE NIGHT. COUPLED WITH THE LOW
   LEVEL JET BACKING AND INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 50-60KT
   LOWER MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...VERY
   STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES DEVELOP...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
   

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUE AM AHEAD OF THE
   SURFACE LOW ERN OK/NRN TX INTO WRN AR. SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD
   NEWD ACROSS MID MS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY
   BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON SURFACED BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM
   SECTOR SPREADING EWD ACROSS LOWER MS/WRN TN VALLEYS.
  
   WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
   AND SUCH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BOTH
   WITH THE SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW/NEAR FRONTAL ZONE AND
   WITH ANY WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT.  LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE MDT RISK AREA THRU
   THE EVENING HOURS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE NIGHT
   AND EVOLVE MORE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL AFTER DARK
   PARTICULARLY IN AREA WHERE HIGHER CAPES ARE AVAILABLE FROM TN SWD.
  
   ..HALES.. 02/04/2008
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 11:32:02 AM
Quote
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BOTH
   WITH THE SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW/NEAR FRONTAL ZONE AND
   WITH ANY WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT.  LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE MDT RISK AREA THRU
   THE EVENING HOURS.

Let me repeat that one, (since TS posted before I could, LOL)
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 11:38:27 AM
I have this new little digital humidity reader gadget (mainly for the dry conditions we had during the cold outbreaks, when I bought a humidifier).

It's been climbing steadily since yesterday.  So, the increased moisture in the air is apparent.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 11:41:01 AM
I promised I'd have an article, but am currently busier than a cat trying to cover poop on hot asphalt.

Short and simple version - GFS still has us under serious threat. Just as SPC noted and issued their disco.

BTW, CAPEs aren't going to matter a whole lot. We should more than easily have enough CAPE in this kind of wind field to initiate convection. EML model soundings appear likely over area increasing threat for strong long track tornados. SPC likely to go HIGH tomorrow if models stay on track with actually occurring obs.

PLEASE NOTE:  THE FORUM WILL BE GOING INTO SEVERE WX MODE TONIGHT (or earlier if conditions warrant). This means that the forum will be restricted only to registered users. All guests must register to view the forum while in severe wx mode. This helps us keep the site loading times fast especially with large images being posted during a significant event.

Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 11:41:41 AM
I'm watching the steady increase in temps here. 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 11:42:32 AM
I promised I'd have an article, but am currently busier than a cat trying to cover poop on hot asphalt.

Ron.  I love you.  Really.  But....wow.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: a_met on February 04, 2008, 11:43:54 AM
Let me first address the criticism of the local NWS office. I can say from experience that for the most part OHX has a great staff. However, I strongly believe there's room for improvement. Be patient. Also, constructive criticism is a good thing—particularly in this business where lives are on the line in event such as the one that's upcoming. That's all I care to say about that.

And, as far as the media—what do you folks wanting from them? Davis has expressed adequate concern on the blog. I'm not a tremendously loyal and avid watcher of TV weathercasts, so I haven't seen how the others are handling it. But, News 2 seems to be handling the potential well. The last thing we need in this area is an over-reactive media that gets everyone worked up over every moderate risk claiming that it will rival past high-end events such as April 7th 2006—which, synoptically doesn’t compare.

I'm certainly not trying to downplay this event at all. There's undoubtedly a lot of potential for a rather substantial event, and the public needs to be prepared for Tuesday's severe weather threat.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 11:45:44 AM
I have this new little digital humidity reader gadget (mainly for the dry conditions we had during the cold outbreaks, when I bought a humidifier).

It's been climbing steadily since yesterday.  So, the increased moisture in the air is apparent.

Hubby went to check our humidfier last night because he didn't hear the fan running.  He said, "Hmmm, it still has water in it, didn't think there was that much moisture in the air."  I told him, he shouldn't have to worry about the humidifier for the next couple of days.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 11:45:57 AM
Welcome to the forums tvstracker!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 11:47:39 AM
Welcome tvstracker!!  Your points are well-taken..we don't bash here, but sometimes we scratch our heads..'specially when the coverage all around is so different. ;)


Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 11:49:42 AM
Yes, welcome to tvstracker.

I will say this about the local affiliates (particularly WKRN, WSMV, and WTVF), I think they do an outstanding job when they go wall to wall, with the warnings and the on-air close-up radar discussions, etc.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: a_met on February 04, 2008, 11:51:03 AM
Trust me, I do a lot of head scratching too at times, lol.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: sbradley1979 on February 04, 2008, 11:52:35 AM
Do you think a "PDS" will be issued?  I remember last time they issued one, schools closed in preparation.  My child's daycare runs on the school schedule...go figure!!!  I've heard conflicting reports about the timing of the event.  What are your thoughts?  Will this be an all day event or night event?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 11:56:24 AM
Based on the way this thing is shaping up now, I would not at all be surprised (and would even expect) one or more PDS Tornado Watches to go up somewhere in the region tomorrow...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 11:57:03 AM
I would think a PDS warning will be going up within the near future.  At least I hope so.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: sbradley1979 on February 04, 2008, 12:00:15 PM
I just have to say...I'm mostly a lurker on this site and have been for quite some time, but I enjoy this site more than any of the others out there.  In my opinion, (which I think matters most!) this is the best weather site out there, especially for those who really can't read the models, only the explanations given by you fine people!  So a BIG THANKS to you all!!! 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 12:01:03 PM
Awww.  Thanks sbradley!  These folks are very much teh awesome - I agree!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 12:05:58 PM
Why thanks~!  We have a great nucleus of people who REALLY KNOW THEIR STUFF..not me(I'm here for comic relief and to keep the bacon machine filled  ;D ).

So have yerself a bacon sammich and enjoy... :P

Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2008, 12:07:33 PM
"We have greenage!"

Welcome SBradley.  Sit back & enjoy!!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: sbradley1979 on February 04, 2008, 12:19:44 PM
Ahhh....Twister...a classic!!! 

FYI - I'm known as the weather nerd in my family, so I should fit right in......They call me Da Da DA da Da Da Da.  (The News Channel 5 weather alert sound)  I know you all know what I'm talking about (At least I hope). 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 12:32:32 PM
LOL! Yeah I know what you're talkin bout.

Thanks for the kind words. It always helps to know someone is listening when you feel like you're talking to yourself. Helps to keep the schizophrenic feelings at bay. ;) ;D
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 12:32:47 PM
ill be in severe mode tommorrow after i get home from school lol.... see yall then i started a website.
www.snowloverweather.blogspot.com
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 12:34:41 PM
"...............nother cow..........."

I think we're already on severe wx mode out here.  Just 'cause it's fun.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mastermatt on February 04, 2008, 12:36:24 PM
it seems rare that they predict such certant WXdoom this far out without anything poping up. Except here in cookeville. Does anyone know why storms always split near putnam county and go north and south only to rejoin in cumberland county?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 12:43:22 PM
Welcome mastermatt!

When I lived in Cookeville, we always said it was because the storms hit the "pointy end" of the plateau and slid around.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2008, 12:46:34 PM
it seems rare that they predict such certant WXdoom this far out without anything poping up. Except here in cookeville. Does anyone know why storms always split near putnam county and go north and south only to rejoin in cumberland county?

Yeah, its the same weather phenomenon that causes snowless winters in Nashville.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 12:48:05 PM
As expected Davis Nolan's post is a little more strongly worded, from www.nashvillewx.com:

Quote
Severe Storms Possible Tuesday Night-Early Wednesday Morning (Possibly Earlier)
By Davis
February 4th, 2008 - 12:40 pm


The Storm Prediction Center has issued a “moderate risk” of severe storms for tomorrow night-early Wednesday morning.

The only thing that has changed since yesterday is the timing. Latest data indicates that the strong line of storms will push through Nashville after midnight in the early morning hours (ETA of around 3am for Nashville, plus or minus 1-2 hours when you are timing weather). However, we will also have to watch out for storms that may develop ahead of that line that could be tornado producing supercells. If that happens, severe weather could occur earlier, possibly even during the afternoon.

A “moderate risk” is actually pretty elevated for the Storm Prediction Center. I have seen many severe weather events under only a “slight risk”.

You can click below to read their entire Convective Outlook, but here is one excerpt that causes concern:

TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BOTH
WITH THE SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW/NEAR FRONTAL ZONE AND
WITH ANY WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE MDT RISK AREA THRU
THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE NIGHT
AND EVOLVE MORE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL AFTER DARK
PARTICULARLY IN AREA WHERE HIGHER CAPES ARE AVAILABLE FROM TN SWD.

Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 12:51:16 PM
So basically we're gonna be up all night tomorrow night, or is that tonight?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 12:53:32 PM
It's looks like the action may start up tonight over Arkansas and possibly West TN.  Here for most of Middle TN, it should be tomorrow... with action going into late tomorrow night.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 12:54:08 PM
Cool.  I will make plans to be an insomniac tomorrow.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 12:56:36 PM
We're climbing into the 60s now in Middle TN.

I'm at 61.3 degrees.

Numerous locations in West TN are now reporting low 70s.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 12:59:23 PM
73' in Dyersburg and 46' in Knoxville...what a range, eh?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 04, 2008, 01:17:37 PM
Little peeks of sunshine downtown  :)
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 01:19:27 PM
so will chattanooga be affected with this "severe event" or will they fall apart like some weather men are saying... they say the line might fall apart before it reaches chattanooga.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 01:25:43 PM
62 here in Antioch.

Snowlover, I have no idea.  I would think that Chattanooga might well see some sort of fun, but to what extent, I don't know. :(
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 01:26:58 PM
62 here in Antioch.

Snowlover, I have no idea.  I would think that Chattanooga might well see some sort of fun, but to what extent, I don't know. :(

I believe wind event primarily attm.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 01:29:57 PM
*goes and camps out in the chatroom*
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 01:44:58 PM
WAVE3 Met John Belski (Louisville NBC affiliate) blog post:

http://www.wave3.com/Global/link.asp?L=191466

And Tom Wills (Wills was forecasting at WAVE during the April 3, 1974 outbreak, his first gig out of college I suppose.  He is the Met I grew up watching):

http://www.wave3.com/Global/link.asp?L=224920






Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 01:50:39 PM
i just hope it dont turn out to be a "disaster" liek henry margusity from accuweather.com said :[
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 01:54:38 PM
thanks ron hope its just a wind event people around here arent prepared for tornadoes. sirens and all you know.....i think if we had a tornadoe here in this area alot of people would get hurt :[
Title: Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 01:56:15 PM
If you're near Chattanooga, hon, I wonder why it's not a storm ready area.  :(

Just my personal belief, but everyone in every county, especially in the south and in Tornado Alley, should be storm ready.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 01:58:09 PM
*beefing up wording in thread title*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 02:01:56 PM
*stifles the urge to ask "Where's the beef?" ........... okay not so stifled.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 02:03:27 PM
We may have quite a few steaks on the grill tomorrow.  ;)

Or, maybe I should say... much is at steak with the weather tomorrow.  :o
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 02:06:18 PM
Storm ready (as far as sirens are concerned) is only good if you're living in the principle cities of the county too.  For example...I believe Rutherford County is considered "Storm Ready"...Well, that is wonderful if you are in the confines of the sirens of Murfreesboro, Smyrna, and Lavergne...but get outside the "sound" limits of the sirens...I could hear the sirens like nobody's business when we lived in town, but now that we live in the county, it's nothing.

I would think that Chattanooga is the same .....BUT would a siren in downtown Chatty do anyone in Brainerd, Hixson, or Red Bank any good?

I saw a funny (peculiar...not "ha ha") stat regarding smoke detectors...People will not spend the $10 to $15 dollars it takes for a smoke detector but will quickly spend $25-$30 on a carton of cigarettes.  It would be nice it Homeowner's Insurance  would offer incentives for WEATHER RADIOS as well....good radios...*grumbles quietly to self*....Then maybe people would get them.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 02:08:06 PM
We may have quite a few steaks on the grill tomorrow.  ;)

Or, maybe I should say... much is at steak with the weather tomorrow.  :o
Boo.  Just for that, no steak for j00.

servo - I agree.  Wouldn't it be great if there were a way to get weather radios to the masses?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 02:09:36 PM
We seem to have "mini" tornado alleys in Middle TN.  Whenever there are severe outbreaks, it seems that some of the same areas tend to be under the gun.

Lawrence and Wayne Counties come to mind.  Maury, Williamson, and Rutherford seem to frequently end up under the crosshairs also.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 02:12:29 PM
well we have nuclear plant sirens.
those ones they use for evacuations.
and in the "calendar" they send out it says they may be used for tornaodes, floods or man made disasters lol. but i dont know if they will use those. and theres none near graysville.
and i think soddy daisy has tornadoe sirens.
thats the only city i have seen with them and they were on top of the fire hall.
city of dunlap has one too.
i will be in school from 8AM-2:45PM.
so i will be "safe" during them hours lol.
who all has tornadoe sirens in their towns on here?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 02:13:57 PM
Nashville has installed tornado sirens since the April 1998 storm.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 02:15:13 PM
well you can say the city of nashville is "storm ready". the question is is the city of CHATANOOGA ready for a big one? what is the population of chatt.?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 02:16:12 PM
AH, Soddy Daisy, I don't think I'll EVER forget that town's name ;)....I bought a VCR at the Wal-mart there when I was working in Chattanooga.  Back then, there was NO Wal-mart in Chatty yet.  Nice drive too.  I lived off of 27.

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 02:18:42 PM
lol yess. its a funny name.
but i bet all the emergency personal will be on alert tomorrrow night all over the state.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 02:19:17 PM
Metro Nashville is "Storm Ready"  as is, I believe, Madison.  But I don't think Antioch is.

Fun times.

There should be a way to get wx radios to those who don't have them.  And I'm all for finding a way to create/provide storm shelters for those in mobile homes.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 02:20:24 PM
i live in a mobile home :/ i hate it grr. lol
and have a 4 cylindar s10 truck.
wow couldnt i outrun a twister lol.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: sbradley1979 on February 04, 2008, 02:21:18 PM
I just love how they casually say "possibly supercellular" without further explanation...

Quote
000
FXUS64 KOHX 042015
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
215 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.SHORT TERM...(THRU WED NITE)
CURRENT...LARGE SWATH OF SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSRA HAS MOVED
INTO FAR NE CORNER OF CWA...AND WILL BE GONE SHORTLY. SOME AREAS
RECEIVED 1/2 TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. TEMPS IN LOWER 50S E TO LOWER
60S W. 75 DEG TEMP AT TUP AT 19Z...WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET AS WAA EPISODE TDA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE REPEATED AND ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH WEAK
IMPULSES IN H5 SW FLOW. LO CHANCE POPS THRU TUE WITH BEST CHANCE NW.

ALL INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR TUE NITE...BUT MODELS ARE POSTPONING THINGS FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OR
SO. AFTER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TOMORROW (BUT SOME BREAKS WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO 70S) SOME STORMS WILL POP UP OVER W DURING EVENING
HOURS (POSSIBLY SUPERCELLULAR) B4 A SQUALL LINE FORMS W PORTIONS
BY LATE EVE. THIS LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA DURING OVERNITE.
DAMGING WINDS GEREATEST THREAT BUT HAIL/TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS
WELL. SPS WBIS SHORTLY ON THIS EVENT.

FYI...71 AT BNA AND 66 AT CSV ARE RECORDS WHICH COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY TOMORROW.

AFTER FRONT MOVES ACROSS PLATEAU EARLY WED...WITH DRY SLOT MOVING
ACROSS WED MORNING...WED NITE WILL SEE COLDER TEMPS RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...
WEAK TROFS MOVE ACROSS THU NITE AND FRI NITE WITH ONLY SLITE
CHANCE PRECIP. HI PRES RULES ON SAT. 1042 ARCTIC HI PRES OVER MN
SUN BUILDS S. RETURN FLOW SUN NITE AND MON.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Animal Lover on February 04, 2008, 02:23:23 PM
Ridgetop and Greenbrier are "Storm Ready". :)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 02:23:53 PM
I am SO sleeping tomorrow so that I can stay up all night. ;)

Who's with me?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 02:25:34 PM
"NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET"?!?!  ???
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 04, 2008, 02:26:23 PM
My guess is if this all holds off until near or after sunset, we will be looking more at a squall line-wind event.  Anyone else with knowledge care to add anything to this...?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 02:27:46 PM
I wish I could....BUT.....I'll have the boys in school and all that other stuff...I just need to get a dinner sorted out early in the day so the guys can be on auto pilot tomorrow.. ;D ;D ;D

They've been through this drill before...

"NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET"?!?!  ???


*shakes head and doesn't understand that either*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 02:28:37 PM
My guess is if this all holds off until near or after sunset, we will be looking more at a squall line-wind event.  Anyone else with knowledge care to add anything to this...?

The NWS in Nashville seems to expect this to be the case.

There seem to be different opinions on the extent of pre-squall discrete activity.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: lyngo on February 04, 2008, 02:30:10 PM
"NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET"?!?!  ???

I don't know about that statement.......
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: sbradley1979 on February 04, 2008, 02:30:24 PM
Springfield / Greenbrier, TN storm ready...in fact they just tested the sirens on Saturday.  
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 04, 2008, 02:31:49 PM
I am truly scratching my head at the nws discussions...it is almost like they are in their own little world, forcasting for a different planet.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 02:35:25 PM
By Contrast, here is the MEM discussion:

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.UPDATE...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH
THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY WITH LOWER 70S ALREADY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DELTA. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD BREAK RECORDS. THE 74
DEGREE RECORD IN MEMPHIS WILL PROBABLY FALL. WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE DELTA AND THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AN PARTS
OF NW MISSISSIPPI.

AS TEMPS CLIMB AND DEWPOINTS REACH INTO THE MID 60S INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES REACHING THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. ONE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHETHER THERE IS A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z
SHREVEPORT SOUNDING INDICATES A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AND THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE ADVECTING OVER THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER SHOULD MAKE
IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...DURING THE EVENING A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF TEXAS MAY PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NE ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. IF...AND THAT IS A BIG
IF...STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND THEY MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

ALL INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE
FRONT SLIGHTLY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR MORE DESTABILIZATION IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 04, 2008, 02:36:23 PM
It is as if someone has hijacked their website and just posting random crap...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 02:38:58 PM
And Spann's blog:

Quote
*Looks like very little rain here tonight and tomorrow. Maybe a few isolated showers, but nothing more than that.

*We have a chance of breaking the record high tomorrow…76 in 1927 (for Birmingham). Tomorrow will be a warm and windy day with a mix of sun and clouds. Again, very little rain during the day.

*The greatest risk of severe weather in Alabama will come from 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Wednesday.

*The best mix of instability and shear will be over the northwest part of the state, where SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather. Severe storms will fire up tomorrow afternoon over North Mississippi, West Tennessee, and Arkansas… those storms will develop eastward into Northwest Alabama by the evening hours. Those storms could produce isolated tornadoes.

*Instability values are a little higher on the 12Z model runs, but the highest values (over 500 j/kg) are west of I-65; the values really drop off over East Alabama tomorrow night.

*A line of storms, with the potential primarily for damaging straight line winds, will move through Alabama late tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. The storms should weaken as they move east of I-65 after midnight tomorrow night, but they still could be severe in spots to the Georgia border.

*Rain totals of one to two inches are likely tomorrow night.

Really, the most dangerous weather tomorrow will be over Mississippi, West Tennessee, Arkansas, and the northeast part of Louisiana; surface based CAPE values over there could exceed 1,500 j/kg. Some long track tornadoes will be possible, and an upgrade to a high severe weather risk is sure not out of the question. And, of course, once the action begins to the west, that will give us a much better look at how it will impact Alabama tomorrow night.

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 02:51:41 PM
With the greatest risk being over W. TN, I still wouldn't discount the chances of severity in M. TN, gang.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 02:53:16 PM
I certainly hope no one would discount it.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 02:54:01 PM
Check out JAN's SWS just issued.

Quote
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
050600-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
245 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...

A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

AN INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE...A HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
INTENSE WIND FIELDS WILL COME TOGETHER TO ALLOW FOR SUPERCELLS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
HAIL...INTENSE WIND FIELDS WILL PRODUCE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
LOCATED AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW TORNADOES ALSO BEING POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY OVER AREAS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BEGINNING BETWEEN AROUND 10 AM AND
NOON. THIS SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL REACH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AROUND THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 2 PM TO 4 PM. EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI WILL BEGIN TO SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY AROUND
5 PM TO 7 PM.

NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER PLANS IN ADVANCE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER. PEOPLE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...OR LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION...FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

CAW/AEG
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 03:00:52 PM
I want to point this out on latest SPC discussion. THIS is what the SPC was waiting to see IF it would develop... EML - elevated mixed layer. All model SkewTs I've seen have had this feature the last several days for the warm sector, even KBNA. I mentioned it in one of my previous posts earlier today.

This disco tells us that SPC is seeing what they needed to see to get confidence in an outbreak.

Quote
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008
   
   VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT FROM N TX TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   VIGOROUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS AZ/NM AND BY THE
   END OF FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. E/W FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN KS TO
   NRN MO WILL CONTINUE SETTLING SWD INTO TX PANHANDLE ENEWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL OK INTO SWRN MO BY 12Z TUE AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN NWRN
   TX IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER TROUGH.
   
   DRY LINE HAS MIXED EWD INTO SERN KS SWWD ACROSS OK TO NEAR DRT. TO E
   OF DRY LINE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE AS 60F
   DEWPOINTS MOVE AS FAR N AS MID MS VALLEY.
   
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH WEAK CAPPING HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
   WARM SECTOR TODAY WHICH ALONG WITH WEAK RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF
   VIGOROUS SWRN TROUGH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
   
    HOWEVER GIVEN THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR AND AVAILABLE FRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ERN PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY...
   S OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM SRN IN WNWWD TO N OF STL TO
   MKC...AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   LOW/MID 70S. DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 60F PROVIDING MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG
   WITH ONLY MINIMAL CINH.  FRONTAL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INITIATE
   THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON MO INTO IL.  WITH STRONG...
   DEEP/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
   LIKELY. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES
   ARE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE EWD AND BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF MS RIVER.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS THIS EVENING ACROSS SRN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK INTO NWRN TX AND CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT.
   PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z AS STRONG ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD
   INTO SRN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  STORMS WOULD
   MOST LIKELY INITIATE FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY NWD INTO SRN OK AND
   THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD.  WITH APPROACH OF 100KT MID LEVEL
   JET...STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS.  STORMS SHOULD
   BE MOSTLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
   CONCERN. HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG ASCENT AND MID LEVEL COOLING AS
   TROUGH APPROACHES...CAP SHOULD BE WEAK ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF MOIST
   AXIS WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..HALES.. 02/04/2008
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 03:02:56 PM
For those learning, here's a powerpoint presentation on EML and its role in tornadic events. Great article by Albany NWS office. Just ignore some of the local geographic content.

http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/nrow7/Ekster%5CEML_Ekster.ppt (http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/nrow7/Ekster%5CEML_Ekster.ppt)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 03:04:44 PM
Interesting.  With that being the case, it will be interesting to see how that is reflected in upcoming outlooks.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 03:10:41 PM
Thanks for the post and the link, Ron.

Let's see how this plays out.  *emails you some cooties*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 03:13:52 PM
Well I just carpetbombed everyone's email.

We don't want anyone out there caught off guard by this, even if we do bust the forecast (seems improbable at this point, but hey, the Titanic sank too).
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Jilly on February 04, 2008, 03:20:51 PM
The radar looks so quiet right now LOL
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 03:22:32 PM
HUN amping their wording up a bit on their just issued SPS:

Quote
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
253 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-050500-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE ...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
253 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

THE PEAK POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN IN NORTHWEST
ALABAMA AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT. YOU CAN ALSO GET THIS INFORMATION FROM THE HUNTSVILLE
WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

$$

MP
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 03:24:09 PM
Well I just carpetbombed everyone's email.

We don't want anyone out there caught off guard by this, even if we do bust the forecast (seems improbable at this point, but hey, the Titanic sank too).
We are not going to discuss how terrible "carpetbombed" sounds.

And unless by some chance there's icebergs in the forecast, I don't see us sinking on this one.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 03:24:35 PM
Forbes on The Weather Channel just said he expects "dozens of tornados possible" tomorrow.

I know it's TWC, but what a statement!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 03:26:22 PM
Forbes on The Weather Channel just said he expects "dozens of tornados possible" tomorrow.

I know it's TWC, but what a statement!
:o :o :o :o

Gotta love a statement like that one to bring home the validity of a forecast!  Not a "could be" but "expects."  Wording counts!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 03:31:32 PM
Wh-what??  A carpet bomb of tornadoes???? Hmmmmm???  You go into the "school line" for a bit and you miss so much!! :D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Conservative1 on February 04, 2008, 03:32:10 PM
I am SO sleeping tomorrow so that I can stay up all night. ;)

Who's with me?

Sounds tempting, but my wife says I'd better go home and sleep in my own bed...  ;D   ;) 

Sounds like tomorrow will be interesting. Make sure y'all have food, liquids, and emergency supplies including batteries for tomorrow. Check those flashlights, be careful with candles, and police up anything outside that could blow away and hasn't yet. Call the old folks next door, they MIGHT appreciate the warning.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 03:36:20 PM
Sounds tempting, but my wife says I'd better go home and sleep in my own bed...  ;D   ;) 


LMAO!!! Goodern!!!  ;D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 03:37:12 PM
Quote
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
230 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-050830-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN... CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...KINGSTON SPRINGS...NASHVILLE...
LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO. ..
COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...ALLARD T...LINDEN...
LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANK LIN...BRENTWOOD...
COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBU RY...SMITHVILLE...
SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...FAIRFIELD GLADE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...
MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...TRACY CITY...ALTAMONT...COALMONT...
SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASK I
230 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES TUESDAY NIGHT IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN AN UNSEASONABLY LARGE WARM SECTOR
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND AS A RESULT...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD WARMTH...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...60
DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX...WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WIND
MAX...COUPLED WITH A LOW LEVEL WIND MAX...WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY
SHEARED WIND PROFILE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THAT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING THE EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES.

BY MIDNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE REACHED THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WILL ALSO CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
REACH THE PLATEAU BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

PEOPLE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...LISTEN TO LATER STATEMENTS.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PLAN WHERE YOU AND YOUR FAMILY WOULD SEEK
SHELTER SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN


Sorry if someone has posted this already
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 03:37:44 PM
Sounds tempting, but my wife says I'd better go home and sleep in my own bed...  ;D   ;) 

Sounds like tomorrow will be interesting. Make sure y'all have food, liquids, and emergency supplies including batteries for tomorrow. Check those flashlights, be careful with candles, and police up anything outside that could blow away and hasn't yet. Call the old folks next door, they MIGHT appreciate the warning.
..................................






WOW.  :D :D :D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 03:38:24 PM
LMAO!!! Goodern!!!  ;D
yeah yeah.

*mumbles something about not being able to get lucky on freebie day in Vegas.*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 03:42:08 PM
Looks like the day shift at OHX finally stumbled in the door.  ;D


SECOND NOTICE
***GUESTS:***
 THE FORUM WILL BE GOING INTO SEVERE WX MODE TONIGHT (or earlier if conditions warrant). This means that the forum will be restricted only to registered users. All guests must register to view the forum while in severe wx mode. This helps us keep the site loading times fast especially with large images being posted during a significant event.


Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 03:45:15 PM
Looks like the day shift at OHX finally stumbled in the door.  ;D

*snicker*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 04, 2008, 03:45:48 PM
When will the SPC update the convective outlook maps?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 03:48:38 PM
Ohhhhhhh Rooooooonnnnnnn -

Do you think the maps will be updated, or are they just going to leave it as it is? (which may be their solution, however nuts)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 03:53:21 PM
Reply to both of you:  ;D

SPC's outlooks are issued on a schedule unless something BIG occurs to cause them to change. If you go to spc.noaa.gov and click on Convective Outlooks then click on the Day outlook you want, at the bottom it will tell you what time the next outlook will be issued.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 03:56:38 PM
Quote
BY MIDNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE REACHED THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WILL ALSO CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
REACH THE PLATEAU BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

I'm making lots of coffee.  This puts the track to run through Nashville around 4am or so, if my calculations are correct (which is rare).

Does anyone think we'll be seeing anything hardcore before midnight? 
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 03:58:19 PM

Does anyone think we'll be seeing anything hardcore before midnight? 

Did you take too much flu medication?? That's the possibility we've been talking about all day. LOL. Very probably we will see something. It'll be more isolated in nature, so can't say if it will pass over you or not, but should be some convection before nightfall in the CWA.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 04:01:16 PM
This is what makes it similar to 4/7/06.  We were waiting for the squall line to come through yet all that convection popped up ahead of the front earlier in the day with the deadly tornadoes.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 04:04:23 PM
Did you take too much flu medication?? That's the possibility we've been talking about all day. LOL. Very probably we will see something. It'll be more isolated in nature, so can't say if it will pass over you or not, but should be some convection before nightfall in the CWA.
Ron.  When I feel better, I'm a thump you square in the head.

Let me rephrase.  Are we looking at more isolated events or the whole shebang before midnight?  Now that you've answered that question, (thank you), hush before I send a doggie over to piddle in your shoes.  :p
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: StormNine on February 04, 2008, 04:20:05 PM
  I wish i can chase but one year in the sidelines next year I will be able to.  Maype I can learn from the people chasing this event for future events when i start chasing in my free time in 2009 and 2010.  I downloaded the chat thing but how do oyu get to a Mid TN chat room so I can get involved tonight with that.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 04:24:22 PM
i just click on the 'chat' link up top.  Right now, that's what's being used.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 04:28:51 PM
StormNine, if you are talking about OUR chatroom, all you have to do is click the "Chat" link at the top of the page.  I think some of the other users had some other sites they like for "chatting", but they aren't sponsored by the forum.  
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: StormNine on February 04, 2008, 04:30:14 PM
Oh ok thanks for that info
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 04:33:10 PM
NWS Paducah office (PAH) had a conference call moments ago. Here's a link to get the documents they used in .PDF and an mp3 of the call: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=briefs (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=briefs)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 04:35:35 PM
Hey guys, just got back from work, looks like things are still lining up for Severe storms tomorrow night here in Mid TN and earlier in other parts... maybe discrete supercells possible?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 04:37:25 PM
*listens in rapt fascination*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 04, 2008, 04:38:24 PM
Blog, Blog, Blog...post, post, post
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 04, 2008, 04:39:17 PM
hmmmmmmmm............contemplating biting the bullet and purchasing GRLevelX
can't decide

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 04:39:26 PM
Tulsa OK at 81'F and Norman OK at 80'F. In February. Incredible.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 04:40:29 PM
hmmmmmmmm............contemplating biting the bullet and purchasing GRLevelX
can't decide



I'll be the devil on your shoulder urging you to buy it.

Get GR Level 3. It's best for most users unless you really want to analyze data and historical data.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 04:43:44 PM
Just bought GRLevel3 and installed the license today.  My trial period had expired. 
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 04:44:14 PM
I can feel the moisture, its really palpable out there right now, as the NWS says, "tornadoes are harder to spot at night", this could be an interesting/dangerous situation we have setting up...

I do believe we will see either one or two PDS watches tomorrow....
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 04, 2008, 04:44:20 PM
Quote
Just bought GRLevel3 and installed the license today.  My trial period had expired.



Link please  ;D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 04:45:21 PM
From the conference call - first round tonight, second round tomorrow, poss. third round tomorrow night.

:o
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 04:46:07 PM


Link please  ;D

http://www.grlevelx.com/ (http://www.grlevelx.com/)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 04:47:08 PM
I'm thinking it would behoove me to go ahead and get some sleep early tonight and be up most of the day and night tomorrow.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 04:48:09 PM
I re-installed my OS, so I get to do the 21 day trial again, Im download GR2anyalyst :)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 04:49:26 PM
I'm thinking it would behoove me to go ahead and get some sleep early tonight and be up most of the day and night tomorrow.

sleep? Whats is this sleep you speak of?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 04:50:07 PM
Here's the link to the Paducah conference call again for those that may have missed it: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=briefs (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=briefs)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 04:52:32 PM
sleep? Whats is this sleep you speak of?
It's that thing I'm doing between bouts of coughing and puking. :(
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Reneezelle on February 04, 2008, 04:58:09 PM
Batten Down The Hatches!!!! WOoOoOoOoO----HOoOoOoOoO!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 05:01:16 PM
LOL - Hiyas Renee!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 05:09:06 PM
It's that thing I'm doing between bouts of coughing and puking. :(

Sorry to hear that your sick, I hope you get better....
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 05:09:45 PM
Thanks hon.  I'll live.  I just won't be thrilled about it. :(
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Reneezelle on February 04, 2008, 05:14:49 PM
LOL - Hiyas Renee!

Hiiiiii!!!!
 
  I am oh so glad I have a basement at the salon... let me tell ya!
Sounds like another rare occurance where I will have to stash candles in the basement and insturct everyone to grab a 4x8 coushion or pillow and head down to were the sun don't shine.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 05:20:11 PM
Lisa Patton just discussed the possibility, on air, of supercell development ahead of the squall line tomorrow afternoon.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 05:22:08 PM
So did the gal on Newschannel 5.  Ron Howes isn't on tonight.  I suspect he'll be on long tomorrow.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 05:23:59 PM
Lisa Patton just discussed the possibility, on air, of supercell development ahead of the squall line tomorrow afternoon.

Quote
So did the gal on Newschannel 5.  Ron Howes isn't on tonight.  I suspect he'll be on long tomorrow.

Apparently we were ahead of the curve a few days on this one, eh?   ;) ;D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 05:33:24 PM
Apparently we were ahead of the curve a few days on this one, eh?   ;) ;D
Ya think?  We had this one back in January. ;D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: onthelake on February 04, 2008, 06:21:45 PM
Great Job, Gang!
Wish you all the best tomorrow.


Ya think?  We had this one back in January. ;D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 06:27:04 PM
Great Job, Gang!
Wish you all the best tomorrow.


TS had it pegged!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 06:44:02 PM
Thanks.

We'll be on tonight with updates though... so the fun doesn't have to wait!  :D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 06:45:27 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0139.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MISSOURI...ILLINOIS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 050020Z - 050145Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

SLOW DEEPENING OF A CONVECTIVE BAND IS ONGOING SOUTHEAST OF
KIRKSVILLE MO INTO AREAS EAST OF CHANUTE KS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSED NEAR A WEAK THERMAL GRADIENT/CONFLUENCE IN FLOW AROUND 700
MB...ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FLOW...
WHICH IS ONLY PROGGED SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
LOW AMPLITUDE POLAR IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE IS RAPIDLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION. AND...THERE APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING SIGNS OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN DOWNSTREAM
LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE OZARKS. AREAS SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED...BUT STRENGTHENING FORCING THROUGH
THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME MAY SUPPORT INCREASING/ INTENSIFYING STORMS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE LONGER TERM
PROSPECTS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE EVOLVING BAND TO THE
NORTHWEST. BUT...STORMS FORMING ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE GENERALLY DOING SO IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE WAVE LIFTING OUT OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES... ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY BASED ABOVE A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 02/05/2008


Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 06:46:09 PM
Thanks.

We'll be on tonight with updates though... so the fun doesn't have to wait!  :D
All depends on your definition of "fun" Ron.  *snicker*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 06:46:36 PM
Wow a mesoscale already... I have a bad feeling..
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 06:46:54 PM
Ha... Ron beat me to the punch.

Looks like this outbreak is just about to get started with activity now starting to develop in parts of Missouri and Illinois.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 06:47:31 PM
I tell ya - when they called it "Super Tuesday" they weren't kidding.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 06:49:54 PM
Convection firing rapidly around St Louis and across the border in IL. Nice little line of convection looks to be rapidly developing. Probably see TStorm Watch issued very soon.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 06:51:57 PM
Max tops in MO now at 30k ft.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 06:54:24 PM
ye haa!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 06:54:55 PM
Cell just west of Bloomington IL has a very nice inflow notch. Continuing to monitor.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 06:57:27 PM
Radar est. 42kt winds in inflow region of that cell near Hopedale, IL.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 06:58:04 PM
Radar est. 42kt winds in inflow region of that cell near Hopedale, IL.
Good lord!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 07:03:51 PM
Good lord!

You've got to keep in mind though, that's estimated at radar beam height which at that distance from radar site is about 1,000 ft. up. Still a very healthy inflow.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 07:07:21 PM
We're on par to break the record high for tomorrow.  Record is 71, set back in 86.  Average is 41.  This is going to be a bumpy ride, gang.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 07:21:43 PM
First watch of the outbreak just issued from the SPC:

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0032_radar.gif)

Hail and thunderstorm winds appear to be the primary concerns.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 04, 2008, 07:23:19 PM
That is an ugly line and not too far away from that watch box is a Winter Storm Watch box...crazy
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 07:51:54 PM
I wonder how long it will take for them to start issuing the watches tomorrow?...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on February 04, 2008, 07:53:45 PM
My bet would be noon or a little earlier.

Chelsea
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 07:57:55 PM
I wouldn't be surprised with a morning issuance of the first one, TNT.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 07:58:43 PM
Thats what I am thinking too...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 07:59:39 PM
Another watch about to go up.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0143.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OKLAHOMA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
   
   VALID 050148Z - 050315Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  A WW IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG A WEAK
   PRE-FRONTAL LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE...NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
   MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW.  THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE NOW RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
   OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND.  SOME INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
   APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 04-05Z...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS REMAINING OFF TO THE EAST OF
   THE REGION...THE TENDENCY FOR MID-LEVEL WARMING...AHEAD OF THE
   VIGOROUS POLAR IMPULSE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...MAY
   ULTIMATELY SUPPRESS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/05/2008
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 08:01:09 PM
Okay.  Maybe early morning?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 08:03:23 PM
I'm reading other discussions where the thinking is that the moderate threat (and, ultimately high risk area) may be shifted a bit further west than what it is now... as in, the threat may be more centered over Arkansas.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 08:04:21 PM
Hey, that's not fair.  They can't excite us like that and leave us hangin!  That's just....rude.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:04:36 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0142.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IND...SRN MI...NRN OH
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
  
   VALID 050128Z - 050330Z
  
   A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD REGION THIS
   EVENING.  SOME COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...BUT SEVERE RISK SEEMS LOW.
  
  
   A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC/CONFLUENCE ZONE HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
   A RECENT BAND OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
   AMPLITUDE POLAR IMPULSE LIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   ...AND AHEAD OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
   THE TEXAS BIG BEND.  AND...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/
   ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
   EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY...INTO AREAS
   NEAR/SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BORDER THROUGH THE
   VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE BETWEEN NOW AND 04-06Z.  STORMS WILL BE BASED
   IN A MOIST LAYER ABOVE A SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL ZONE...BUT RELATIVELY
   WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH BROADER SCALE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE CAPE.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW...BUT SOME
   SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS.
  
   ..KERR.. 02/05/2008
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: msdawg911 on February 04, 2008, 08:05:48 PM
It's time to play "Find the Advisory!"  ;D

(http://img114.imageshack.us/img114/2245/tnwxrv5.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 08:07:39 PM
Great.  Jake's running game shows now.  ;D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:08:38 PM
Not sure if anyone posted this yet, but here goes.

Quote
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008
   
   VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE OH
   VALLEY SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...
   
   ...MID MS/OH VALLEYS...
   
   WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR SZL AS OF 00Z WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD INTO
   THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT IN CONCERT WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH NOW OVER IA.  AS THIS OCCURS...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
   SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM NRN IND SWWD TO SWRN MO BY 05/12Z.
   
   PERSISTENT SWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED MOISTENING TO
   PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT.  WHEN COUPLED WITH MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAKLY TO
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  DEVELOPING TSTMS
   NE OF SZL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD AND ENCOUNTERS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS.  MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PERSIST ACROSS WARM
   SECTOR...SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES.
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...THOUGH
   DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   00Z REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOW THAT
   AN EML /CAP/ HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  THIS IS
   CONSISTENT WITH NEARER TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER E/SE IN THE
   WARM SECTOR REMAINS QUITE SMALL.
   
   FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON DEVELOPING STORMS...PLEASE SEE
   MCD 139.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A FINE LINE FROM TUL-NW OF ADM-MWL AS
   OF 0030Z...DE-MARKING THE NWWD RETREAT OF THE DRYLINE.  00Z
   OBSERVED...WARM SECTOR SOUNDINGS OVER THE SRN PLAINS ALSO INDICATED
   THAT THE AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED BENEATH THE WRN EXTENSION OF EML.
   
   CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN
   05/09-05/12Z ALONG DRYLINE AND/OR COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OCCLUSION.  THE
   GREATEST LIKLIHOOD APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN OK INTO N-CNTRL/NERN TX
   AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SPREAD EWD OUT
   OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/05/2008
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 08:17:17 PM
Not sure if anyone posted this yet, but here goes.


So does this mean, it is as bad as  orignally thought?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 04, 2008, 08:18:12 PM
Things are already getting interesting. Going to be interesting. Stop by and vote in my poll to see how many tornadoes we think will be reported tomorrow in Tennessee.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 08:20:00 PM
So does this mean, it is as bad as  orignally thought?

That was the Day 1 issued earlier.  It mainly deals with tonight's activity.  Tomorrow's activity is still addressed in the Day 2 outlook... which will become the Day 1 outlook at about midnight.

However, the new Day 1 outlook may look a little different from the current Day 2 outlook, if indeed the threat is depicted further west than what it looked like earlier.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mark in lavergne on February 04, 2008, 08:21:18 PM
ok gang, what time do you think these storms will be in our area? you all know I work 3rd shift and from what news 2 was saying yesterday that it wont be until late night tomorrow before it will get bad. Is this still the case? ??? ???
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 08:22:26 PM
The squall line still looks to move through late tomorrow night.  What is uncertain at this point is the timing of earlier activity.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 08:22:46 PM
I wonder if it will go bust here in Mid TN....
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 08:24:14 PM
It BETTER not go bust here.  *snarl*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 04, 2008, 08:25:02 PM
I highly doubt that. Gonna be a rough day. Especially if the discrete supercells form.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 08:28:25 PM
I'm thinking that right now is a safe time for me to venture to bed for the night, since I'll be up before 8am.

Night gang!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 08:29:16 PM
I'm thinking that right now is a safe time for me to venture to bed for the night, since I'll be up before 8am.

Night gang!

Goodnight
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:29:43 PM
The cell crossing into IL now has a nice hail core to it. Getting some rotation, but still appears elevated.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 08:30:11 PM
The cell crossing into IL now has a nice hail core to it. Getting some rotation, but still appears elevated.
Oh and you wait until I"m going to bed to post this.  You, sir, are an evil man.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 04, 2008, 08:31:20 PM
Hey now, thats our Severe Weather Expert.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 08:32:15 PM
Hey now, thats our Severe Weather Expert.
That doesn't make him any less evil.  :(
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:32:48 PM
Another warned cell farther down the line in SW MO - still in the rather cooler air and not past stationary front into the warm sector yet.

Quote
SVRSGF
MOC015-085-185-050315-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0036.080205T0227Z-080205T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
827 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHERN HICKORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  SOUTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 915 PM CST.

* AT 822 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROSCOE...OR 16 MILES EAST OF EL DORADO
  SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARSAW BY 855 PM CST.

THE TOWNS OF HARPER...QUINCY...ICONIUM...WHITAKERVILLE AND FRISTOE
ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3798 9318 3787 9379 3799 9388 3822 9354
      3822 9353 3823 9353 3834 9337
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 238DEG 41KT 3799 9369

$$

ANGLE
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: armyfemme on February 04, 2008, 08:33:29 PM
Thank you for the update - my parents are currently sitting in a big rig in IL. Might give them a shout to see if they are getting any of that gorgeous weather!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 08:34:06 PM
Oh and you wait until I"m going to bed to post this.  You, sir, are an evil man.

We're talking about storms that are still a long way from here.  ;)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 08:34:32 PM
Welcome armyfemme!

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 08:34:45 PM
We're talking about storms that are still a long way from here.  ;)
Shhhh!!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 04, 2008, 08:36:06 PM
Sister is bout to get hammered in Nevada in SW missouri. She said its an eerie feeling out there.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: armyfemme on February 04, 2008, 08:38:14 PM
Thank you for the welcome! I am just starting my attempt to understand weather... any tips on reading/studying would be greatly appreciated!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 08:39:34 PM
I'll add in my welcome too, armyfemme.  Welcome!  :)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Woodvegas on February 04, 2008, 08:40:07 PM
Lots of high school basketball games tomorrow night and therefore timing of the storm will be very important. I will be at one myself. Oh well, it wouldn't be my first time in the basement of a gym.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:40:39 PM
Thank you for the welcome! I am just starting my attempt to understand weather... any tips on reading/studying would be greatly appreciated!

Welcome to the forum. Hang around and you'll learn. I try to throw out reasoning and some how-to stuff along the way. When things get settled down, I'll write a few articles on models and other topics. Hope you enjoy the forum.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:42:50 PM
Sister is bout to get hammered in Nevada in SW missouri. She said its an eerie feeling out there.

She should be fine. That part of the line is still elevated and not yet rooted in the BL.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: armyfemme on February 04, 2008, 08:43:01 PM
Gotta get the little one settled for the night; however, I will surely be back to catch up on everything that I missed! Especially with the weather we're expecting to get in the next 24 hours, I would really like to learn/understand than hide under my bed!!

Thank you all again for the welcome!!!

Be back soon...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 04, 2008, 08:43:48 PM
Welcome armyfeeme to the Leader In Middle Tennessee Weather. You are going to learn so much around here. And its a friendly atmosphere.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 08:44:42 PM
armyfemme, this is a great place to learn.  These folks are way awesome about teaching and treating everyone like a human being instead of "just a student" sort of mentality. :)

Just jump right in!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 08:45:15 PM
Welcome to the forum. Hang around and you'll learn. I try to throw out reasoning and some how-to stuff along the way. When things get settled down, I'll write a few articles on models and other topics. Hope you enjoy the forum.
*mumbles 'cause you won't be my tutor*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:51:40 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
845 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
  GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
  SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 930 PM CST

* AT 843 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF BELLEVIEW...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF
  ELSBERRY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CARROLLTON...
  WHITE HALL...
  ROODHOUSE...
  ATHENSVILLE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3937 9016 3916 9070 3922 9073 3923 9073
      3929 9077 3937 9089 3954 9045 3953 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 244DEG 42KT 3928 9079

$$

TRUETT

Cell that crossed over MO/IL line continues to be severe warned. Definitely cycling, pretty large hail core, and rotation attm. Don't think it's rooted in surface yet.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 08:52:15 PM
Okay, I"m going to bed before Ron starts making me cry.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 08:55:48 PM
I see a TVS signature on GRLevel3.

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 04, 2008, 08:55:57 PM
Based on my self-taught knowledge of model reading, it does look like (to me at least) the highest threat will be a bit further WSW than currently depicted.  It *DOES* look like it will be quite the ride both here in HUN and there in OHX, though.  Discrete cell development looks more and more likely based on cloud cover maps allowing for more daytime heating.  At least here in HUN, it appears we're going to get some breaks tomorrow early to mid afternoon, and these appear to shift northward into the southern central TN area later in the day, possibly progressing into the OHX area before sunset.

I'm a newbie at this, so please tell me if I'm reading these maps incorrectly; I'm trying to learn  ;)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 04, 2008, 08:57:00 PM
[move]FINAL NOTICE
[/move]

ATTENTION ALL GUESTS!! Tennesseewx.com will be locked Down By about 10pm tonight. If you have not registered, please do so now. The site will remain in Severe Weather Lock Down Mode Through Wednesday. This is our Final Notice. Please Register! Ron Will Be Locking The Site Down Shortly!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 08:59:56 PM
Welcome toastido. Looking at the NAM, it may well be still slowing this down. I'm just getting a look at the 0z NAM, but want to see the GFS before I make another timing change. If that's the case it would move the threat a bit west tomorrow, just due to the fact that it slows it down, making effects on the eastern portion of risk area bump to Day 2.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 04, 2008, 09:04:34 PM
*steals Ron's keys*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:04:43 PM
Classic "flying eagle" radar presentation of the supercell that is currently warned in IL. Developing a bit of a hook to it attm.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 09:07:56 PM
*steals Ron's keys*

Ok, WeatherStalker, uh, I mean, WeatherRocker, that's enough.  :D

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 09:11:25 PM
lol this forum cracks me up.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 09:12:09 PM
Classic "flying eagle" radar presentation of the supercell that is currently warned in IL. Developing a bit of a hook to it attm.

I assume that is the cell that had a TVS on it as it was crossing the MS River.  It's had a hook look on it for a few frames now.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 04, 2008, 09:14:21 PM
We might see a few of those cells that Thundersnow has for an avatar tomorrow.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:15:48 PM
Yeah TS, that's the one.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: ultra mag on February 04, 2008, 09:20:53 PM
Ron or anyone else, what does the set up looklike for west tn ?Thanks for the info.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 04, 2008, 09:21:32 PM
Gotta love the Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Winter Storm Watches next to each other.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:29:39 PM
Ron or anyone else, what does the set up looklike for west tn ?Thanks for the info.

Very serious. Keep close to a source to get official watches and warnings tomorrow. We're headed out that way to chase tomorrow. In fact, several chasers are heading out there as a starting point to the chase unless things change by morning.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 04, 2008, 09:32:36 PM
From what I can tell, the threat for discrete supercells tomorrow evening is going up. Correct me if I am wrong Ron.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:32:57 PM
New MD inching further southward:

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0144.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 050321Z - 050445Z

TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

TO THIS POINT...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS REMAINED
FOCUSED ON THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CONFLUENCE ZONE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR...LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
AMPLITUDE POLAR IMPULSE NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT MAY BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS. AND...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MOISTENING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOW IN THE PROCESS
OF SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF ARKANSAS... DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS TEXAS. THUS...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
NOW AND 06Z.

IF THIS OCCURS...AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ATOP A DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR DOWNDRAFTS REACHING THE SURFACE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 02/05/2008

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 09:33:44 PM
That's getting closer.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 09:36:10 PM
whats the chance for discrete supercells in east tennessee aka chattanooga and vicinity.
(http://chattanooga.weatherplus.com/wxpsta/maps/wxp086/futurecast/d320x240/2008.2.6.1300.2.4.18.jpg?rnd=3072921)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 09:37:33 PM
whats the chance for discrete supercells in east tennessee aka chattanooga and vicinity.

I would think somewhat less as you go further east.

Shouldn't be ruled out at this point though.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 04, 2008, 09:37:54 PM
Mem AFD did mention the possibility of those storms firing up and moving into thier Northern Tier Counties by sun up.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: armyfemme on February 04, 2008, 09:39:29 PM
Very serious. Keep close to a source to get official watches and warnings tomorrow. We're headed out that way to chase tomorrow. In fact, several chasers are heading out there as a starting point to the chase unless things change by morning.

Well, I'm up here in Clarksville/Ft Campbell if any of you chasers need anything tomorrow...

When do you think things will start cooking in this part of the state? Better yet - where can I look at a map with this information to see if I can start to visually study?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:40:24 PM
whats the chance for discrete supercells in east tennessee aka chattanooga and vicinity.
(http://chattanooga.weatherplus.com/wxpsta/maps/wxp086/futurecast/d320x240/2008.2.6.1300.2.4.18.jpg?rnd=3072921)

Very slim chance for discrete activity tomorrow around CHA. Especially with models continuing to slow this down.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 09:41:41 PM
Well, I'm up here in Clarksville/Ft Campbell if any of you chasers need anything tomorrow...

When do you think things will start cooking in this part of the state? Better yet - where can I look at a map with this information to see if I can start to visually study?

Here's a good "one stop shopping" site for all the latest watches, warnings, and outlooks:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/ (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/).

For Clarksville... all I can say is... you'll probably get it before Nashville.  If current activity in Missouri keeps trending southeast, you could get some storms early in the day.  But, I suspect the brunt of the activity comes tomorrow night... unless some storms break out earlier.

It's still a developing situation.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 09:42:35 PM
so what is my area looking at?
Damaging Wind Threat?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:42:51 PM
Well, I'm up here in Clarksville/Ft Campbell if any of you chasers need anything tomorrow...

When do you think things will start cooking in this part of the state? Better yet - where can I look at a map with this information to see if I can start to visually study?

Thanks Aunt Meg. ;) ;D

Here's a good place to start looking at models: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/)

There are many more links to model data and learning sites in our Weather Sites Forum: http://forums.tennesseewx.com/index.php/board,11.0.html (http://forums.tennesseewx.com/index.php/board,11.0.html)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 04, 2008, 09:42:58 PM
On the GRLevel3, could someone explain the codes that come up when I point to one of the triangles???  i.e.  Cell: T2, Cell: A-3, POSH, VIL and VILD ?????

thanks
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:43:48 PM
so what is my area looking at?
Damaging Wind Threat?

Yes, damaging wind threat, but that would not come until Wed. morning, probably later than that graphic you posted.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 09:46:50 PM
but if it comes around noon wont it be more severe due to daytime heating....lol sorry if im bothering you. plus i have school wensday and i dont want to be at school when this stuff happens.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:47:06 PM
On the GRLevel3, could someone explain the codes that come up when I point to one of the triangles???  i.e.  Cell: T2, Cell: A-3, POSH, VIL and VILD ?????

thanks

Google is your friend. ;)

Cell T2 A3, etc are just identifiers for the particular cell, kinda like the name the radar gives them... they mean nothing pretty much. POSH is possibility of hail (it will also give you size the TS is capable of supporting in inches), VIL is vertically integrated liquid - shows possibility of hail cores as a graphic, VILD is vertically integrated liquid density (don't worry about it, it's not too useful).
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:48:41 PM
but if it comes around noon wont it be more severe due to daytime heating....lol sorry if im bothering you. plus i have school wensday and i dont want to be at school when this stuff happens.

You're not bothering me. This time of year, heating of the surface has very little to do with instability due to the low sun angle. Wind advection is the primary mode to get the heat and moisture this time of year.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 09:51:01 PM
so what could go wrong that would make it BAD for my area?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:51:13 PM
Guests:

I'll be locking the forum to registered users only in about 5 minutes to make sure we have fast load times for our users. Guests please register to view the forums. You will still be able to register after the site is locked, but it may take a few minutes for your account to be activated.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: armyfemme on February 04, 2008, 09:52:41 PM
Thanks Aunt Meg. ;) ;D

Here's a good place to start looking at models: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/)

There are many more links to model data and learning sites in our Weather Sites Forum: http://forums.tennesseewx.com/index.php/board,11.0.html (http://forums.tennesseewx.com/index.php/board,11.0.html)

Look, I'm not above tempting folks with food, hot coffee, etc to get them to talk weather with me. I do not want to forever be that person screaming, "Ahh when is the storm coming and how bad will it be?!" I want to be on the other side of fence throwing the lingo around and actually looking at the radar and understanding what it all means... but that is the analyst side of me :) The food is the hostess side ;)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:54:02 PM
so what could go wrong that would make it BAD for my area?

That's kind of like asking me what could make a plane crash. Honestly, I don't see it happening, but could think of a few things such as outflow boundaries setting up from early convection, but I just don't think the wind fields will be primed until the jet structure moves a bit closer to you folks. By then, I'm just about positive the storm mode is linear MCS.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 09:55:07 PM
Look, I'm not above tempting folks with food, hot coffee, etc to get them to talk weather with me. I do not want to forever be that person screaming, "Ahh when is the storm coming and how bad will it be?!" I want to be on the other side of fence throwing the lingo around and actually looking at the radar and understanding what it all means... but that is the analyst side of me :) The food is the hostess side ;)


Sounds like a win - win to me!  ;)  ;D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 04, 2008, 09:55:47 PM
Google is your friend. ;)

and here I thought you were my friend  ;)

just putzing around the GRL and trying to figure it all out, watching the storms in MO and IL

thanks
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 04, 2008, 09:56:40 PM
lol ok. but well i guess its wait and see. but everyone have a great night. im going to bed got school tomorrow.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on February 04, 2008, 10:15:14 PM
Well I've been tracking this episode on another forum and wanted to come over here to get a closer to home perspective.  I'm very concerned over this event and will most likely go into my own "severe weather action plan" if things still look this bad in the morning. 

We have no election day here in NW Mississippi so my kids are scheduled to be in school.  I WILL NOT be sending them tomorrow unless the threat appears to be a definate after noon event here just south of Memphis.  With that in mind I will be checking them out at lunch.  If there is even the slightest chance of a "lock-down" due to weather where I would not be able to check them out of school, then they will not go.  I have also made plans to spend time at my dads house tomorrow during the event.  He has a steel storm room in one of his closets and my family and I will be near that in the event we need to take cover. 

I got some friends and family that say I go too far in events like these, but when the SPC and the NWS use words like significant event, long tracking tornadoes, violent tornadoes, etc., then I take it very seriously.  I'm sure I'll be out of pocket tomorrow so I hope and pray everyone on here is safe tomorrow and that you all are spared any harm.  Take care folks.   
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 04, 2008, 10:20:28 PM
Keep it safe MS Weather Guy. Lets know you are alright tomorrow.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 10:24:38 PM
MSWG, you're right on brother. No need in taking risks that don't need to be taken when it comes to your family.

That being said, I'm looking forward to a fast paced chase day tomorrow (hopefully). Everyone stay safe out there.

 
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 04, 2008, 10:32:20 PM
WAFF here in Huntsville just used "life threatening situation" live on the air.  All I can say is...WOW.  :o

They did, however, forecast very similar to my thinking - highest threat stays west of the huntsville/middle tn area, and as the system progresses, it becomes more of a linear event with damaging winds and hail being the primary threats.  It is still possible, however, that the system could pop out a few discrete supercellular structures ahead of the MCS during late aftn/early evening, but this risk actually seems to be somewhat lower than I previously thought, as the cloud cover does not appear to be as light as previously suggested.  I am concerned, however, as the sfc layer seems to be advecting warmer air in from the south, causing temps to possibly get into the high 70s in Huntsville, and perhaps the mid 70's in the Metro Nashville area. 

It does appear there is a slight slowdown with this system, which of course, makes the timeframe for this severe event quite a bit longer.  According to the 0z GFS, the current convection to the NW is about 150-200 mi further north than anticipated, which also makes me lean towards the possibility of a HIGH risk area being outlined tomorrow for N LA, NW MS, all of AR, Southern MO, and extreme NE TX.

Again, I'm fairly new at all of this stuff, so Ron (or someone who has more experience), please correct me if you see discrepancies in my model reads.


EDIT: Forgot to mention W TN in my High Risk area above.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 04, 2008, 10:35:19 PM
I am trying the trial version of Storm Predator Ron. I like it so far. Maybe I will buy it. Its not to bad. Gonna need something to track this spring.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 04, 2008, 10:42:25 PM
Guys are keeping a great thread so far! I'm in great agreement with most everything being said thus far.

Over here, on WMC, Dave Brown was among the most concerned I can ever recall prior to an event. Started his weathercast by saying "I'm worried about tomorrow". For those unaware, Dave Brown and the WMC team in general is a VERY conservative weather department, both in severe and winter weather. Quite concerning.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: ultra mag on February 04, 2008, 10:48:01 PM
Guys are keeping a great thread so far! I'm in great agreement with most everything being said thus far.

Over here, on WMC, Dave Brown was among the most concerned I can ever recall prior to an event. Started his weathercast by saying "I'm worried about tomorrow". For those unaware, Dave Brown and the WMC team in general is a VERY conservative weather department, both in severe and winter weather. Quite concerning.
I thought the same thing
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 04, 2008, 10:52:28 PM
While I'm thinking about it... Does anyone know of an equivalent piece of software (or as close as possible) to GRLevel2 for Mac?  Closest I have is Unisys' IDV, which is a royal pain to work with.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Tara on February 04, 2008, 11:02:53 PM
Hey everyone. I've been registered and have been reading the boards for awhile, but this is my first post here. I've been very interested in weather since I was a child (I received a weather radio for a birthday present when I was 10 and thought it was the coolest thing ever), but I'm no means an expert - just a fan. I can't say that I'll be a regular poster, but I'm loving the analysis on this board so I'll definitely be a regular reader. Very interested to see what tomorrow brings.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: armyfemme on February 04, 2008, 11:04:53 PM
Well Tara...that makes two of us. These folks are great. Stick around because all of the forums are really interesting :) I'm already absorbing quite a bit - though they should really make a "weather lingo" dictionary. Welcome :)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2008, 11:08:44 PM
Well Tara...that makes two of us. These folks are great. Stick around because all of the forums are really interesting :) I'm already absorbing quite a bit - though they should really make a "weather lingo" dictionary. Welcome :)

Welcome to the forum, armyfemme.  It's always nice to see another Clarksvillian around.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 04, 2008, 11:09:31 PM
Well Tara...that makes two of us. These folks are great. Stick around because all of the forums are really interesting :) I'm already absorbing quite a bit - though they should really make a "weather lingo" dictionary. Welcome :)

yes, welcome Tara.  I'm new here too, but I've been dabbling in this for about 6mo or so.

armyfemme, here's a direct link to the NOAA Weather terms glossary: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word= (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=)

Hope that helps :)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 11:10:54 PM
Welcome Tara. You'll find we're all weather fans. And you don't necessarily have to know too much about the lingo... you'll tend to pick it up around here. Pretty soon you're friends will be wondering what language you're speaking.  ;D

Just take a look at servo... she knows bacon and... and... well she knows bacon.  ;D  ;D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: ultra mag on February 04, 2008, 11:12:33 PM
 Thats 3 of us . ;D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 11:23:19 PM
This is looking worse and worse for mid-TN. Chatter now is a nocturnal tornado outbreak. WRF Sim reflectivity is downright frightening to me and I've chased these for years. Mode stays discrete... no linear mode if this verifies. Seriously... have an emergency plan for you and your family tomorrow.



[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 04, 2008, 11:24:58 PM
Off Topic:  Just wanted to remind everyone that tomorrow is Super Tuesday, so If you are registered to vote, don't forget to do so!

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 11:26:54 PM
And this is 2am Wednesday attached.

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Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 11:29:18 PM
Troubling.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: armyfemme on February 04, 2008, 11:29:45 PM
This is looking worse and worse for mid-TN. Chatter now is a nocturnal tornado outbreak. WRF Sim reflectivity is downright frightening to me and I've chased these for years. Mode stays discrete... no linear mode if this verifies. Seriously... have an emergency plan for you and your family tomorrow.



Okay Ron...you're a busy person this evening, I'm sure. But here I go:

nocturnal tornado outbreak: we're talking night which can be extrememly dangerous considering the lack of visibility?

I'm looking up the rest, but could you explain 'mode stays discrete'

And my emergency plan is in place since last summer when a huge tree came down in my backyard, destroying my deck. The only conflict is should I take the closet in the middle/lower floor of my house or the bathroom on the lower floor/outer wall.... and should I convince my boss (I'm an army civilian) to let us all out at noon tomorrow...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 11:33:16 PM
I'm looking up the rest, but could you explain 'mode stays discrete'

Meaning... instead of just a line of thunderstorms, individualized supercell thunderstorms are scattered over the area.  These types of storms are more likely to be tornadic.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 11:34:59 PM
HUN has SPS out:

Quote
...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST...AND
UNSTABLE AIR TO THE REGION. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE SITUATION
WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.

THE PEAK POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN IN NORTHWEST
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 11:37:47 PM
armyfemme, TS is right about the discrete mode. SCs can thrive more when they're not too crowded and can pull in clean air - warm and moist in their inflow region.

Honestly, if Warnings start being issued left and right, I would go to a fallout shelter or nearest place with a basement or something reinforced. As far as your boss, I value my life over what my boss tells me to do. I'd keep up to date with how things are actually going tomorrow though before trying to convince him. We'll see what SPC says in about 20 min. for their thinking on tomorrow.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2008, 11:38:22 PM
As we approach the midnight hour on this early February evening...

Temperatures are holding in the mid 60s around Middle TN with dewpoints near 60.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 11:40:17 PM
From a source on another forum from Paducah, KY (we get news here before most mets  ;D ):

Quote
SPC just held a conference call with 10 offices in the Day 2 moderate risk area. They are going to keep it a moderate risk for our entire forecast area. The timing has shifted later to the Tuesday evening hours for our area. There is a strong cap in place in the warm sector, and SPC does not believe it will erode until later on Tuesday. Any surface-based severe convection is expected to occur right along the front, which would be after 22z Tuesday in most of our area
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 04, 2008, 11:43:06 PM
HUN has SPS out:


Yup, and if the WRF Sim verifies, with that kind of storm mode, and GFS progging temps at time of pre-FROPA at around 65-70 along with LI's around -1 to -2, it could get quite crazy around here, definitely some wind damage, hail, and I bet I'll wake up to a SVR/TOR warning or two.

Of course, I always have my hotel room ready incase I need it ;)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 04, 2008, 11:49:43 PM
Quote
SPC just held a conference call with 10 offices in the Day 2 moderate risk area. They are going to keep it a moderate risk for our entire forecast area. The timing has shifted later to the Tuesday evening hours for our area. There is a strong cap in place in the warm sector, and SPC does not believe it will erode until later on Tuesday. Any surface-based severe convection is expected to occur right along the front, which would be after 22z Tuesday in most of our area

YIPES!  A strong cap in FEBRUARY?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 11:51:08 PM
Is there a new outlook coming out at midnight?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 04, 2008, 11:55:13 PM
Is there a new outlook coming out at midnight?

Yes, the Day 1 comes out. That's why I haven't turned in for the night. LOL. I've got to be up at 4am to get things ready to head out for the chase.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 04, 2008, 11:55:58 PM
So this is looking pretty bad for here in MID TN?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 12:00:16 AM
So this is looking pretty bad for here in MID TN?

If the WRF sim holds true, all of the midsouth/south central/southeast could be looking pretty bad.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 12:01:35 AM
Our prelim target tomorrow, Jackson TN has temps of 68/60 right now. In February. At midnight. Almost a record high at midnight. Unbelievable.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 12:02:25 AM
Day 1 out:

Quote
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR
FAR NERN
TX...NRN LA...CNTRL AND NRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND FAR
SWRN IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN LOW PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS

STRONG...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL LIFT NEWD TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY
AS MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS INTENSIFY IN THE DOWNSTREAM
POSITION FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER OH VALLEY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER S-CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL TX
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD TO N-CNTRL AR
BY 06/00Z AND INTO SRN OH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ATTENDANT DRY
LINE INITIALLY FROM THE LOW SWD INTO CNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHILE PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD FROM
CNTRL OK AND WRN TX...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING PACIFIC COLD FRONT NEAR
THE MS RIVER TONIGHT.

..SRN LOW PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY

05/00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM THE TX COAST INTO LOWER MS VALLEY
INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY STRONG CAP ATOP MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 10-13 G/KG.
A BROAD...SWLY LLJ ESTABLISHED FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING
TODAY...SUPPORTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5
C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF
AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ BY AFTERNOON FROM SERN OK AND ERN TX EWD/NEWD
ACROSS AR...LA AND MS. INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO DECREASE WITH NEWD
EXTENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD ALONG
FRONT FROM OH/IND/IL SWWD INTO SRN MO...WITH ONGOING OR DEVELOPING
STORMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN OK INTO N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG PACIFIC COLD
FRONT AS STRONG...DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REVOLVE AROUND: 1)
WHETHER STORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ALONG THE FRONT AND 2)
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. ETAKF SOUNDINGS WHICH APPEAR TO BETTER
RESOLVE THE OBSERVED CAP TEND TO LIMIT STORMS TO ALONG THE FRONT.
ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT IS A RATHER WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AS OF 05/0530Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECEED THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROUGH...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE COULD INITIATE MORE DISCRETE STORMS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MODERATE RISK AREA WARM SECTOR
WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 250-350 M2/S2
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-60 KT. ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG AND
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL
CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE WIND THREAT MAY TEND TO INCREASE
TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER OH AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AND POINTS E AS
STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MCS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DATA SETS SUGGEST THAT THE CHARACTER OF THIS MCS COULD BE
SHORT...BROKEN LINES OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES.

UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION GIVEN THE
ABOVEMENTIONED...LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE
ARE GREAT ENOUGH SUCH THAT A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK WILL BE
MAINTAINED. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY ONCE
THESE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

..MEAD.. 02/05/2008

wow.. this is VERY close to my points on high risk area, only extending into IL/IND as mod with wording for upgrade..
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: ultra mag on February 05, 2008, 12:03:48 AM
YIPES!  A strong cap in FEBRUARY?
So is this unusual?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 12:04:47 AM
They shifted the moderate risk area way west, is Nashville even still in that?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 12:06:00 AM
New Day 1 map:

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 12:07:47 AM
They shifted the moderate risk area way west, is Nashville even still in that?

Nope.  Nashville is in the SLIGHT area now.

I hate to toot my horn, but great job, me!  Now I need to work on my mode forecasting...lol   ;D :P
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 12:08:04 AM
I'm headed to get some sleep. I'll be back on early -- very early. LOL.

TNT, Nashville would fall into Day 2 at this point, unless discrete mode develops ahead of front. They'll watch things in the morning at SPC and expand if needed. High risk probable if model solutions verify.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 12:10:16 AM
BTW, take a look at the probability product on that SWO. Tornado: 15% hatched for a HUGE area.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 12:10:41 AM
So is this unusual?

I've only heard of strong capping occurring with spring/fall svr seasons, although I'm sure it's happened before, it seems quite unusual, and quite dangerous in this system.

I too need to go to bed, gotta be up at 5am if I plan to play in this tomorrow after work, I have to go in early. ;)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 12:11:04 AM
It reflects the system slowing down and coming in later.  I believe the new Day 2 should be out in the next hour as well.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 12:13:52 AM
BTW, take a look at the probability product on that SWO. Tornado: 15% hatched for a HUGE area.

sure is..  I'll be sure to check the day 2 outlook/revised day 1 outlook tomorrow morning. 

Have a safe evening everyone, and good luck tomorrow Ron!  Be safe, and I hope to see some nice chase photos/video :)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 06:04:13 AM
This is the hatched looked for today, this thing is slowing down more:

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 06:11:59 AM
Well, I'm back up and at it this morning, albeit a bit late.  The day 2 outlook looks to be fairly quiet compared to the day 1, with only an unhatched 30% line being the main feature, from the plateau region in tn, trailing sw through extreme NE AL, slicing through the center of the I-20 corridor in central AL, which means that (if this is correct and not a bit fast in the forecast) that the severe threat will have ended for middle TN by about 4am, and my area, HUN, by 4-6am.

Ahead of the FROPA, things remain quite volatile.  The cloud breaks I mentioned yesterday are verifying, just a bit earlier than normal for HUN, perhaps late morning to early afternoon, shifting northward.  It appears that the high cloud cover subsides around 6-7am CST for my CWA, and then mid-low level bur-noff appears likely, allowing for the mid/high 70s as i forecast previously.  Of course, this trends to also weaken the cap, allowing for more discrete development, likely around the 3pm-7pm timeframe.  Although solar heating is not a large issue with this type of system, it does play a role in the storm mode evolution, and as we lose the sun around 6pm, it's likely we could see a momentary 'lull' of precip/cellular development here in HUN between around 6pm-10pm, then the main event starts.

The main event appears to be a quasi-linear mode, which is quite concerning, as it brings in all the things we have been worried about with discrete supercellular structrues, as well as the linear wind threat.  The big question concerning this, however, is wether or not the quasi-line will be broken enough to allow for good inflow for the embedded cells overnight. 

Anyway, these are just my early AM thoughts on this system, which likely will change as the environment is brought to light later in the day, and the 12z model runs come out.

Either way you look at this, however, it's going to be a bumpy ride!

servocrow: please keep in mind that that image is likely to be updated at 13z, which is in less than an hour.  I wouldn't be suprised if my high risk area mentioned last night is realized from extreme NE texas, across N LA, W/C MS, W TN, S MO, into portions of W KY, and possibly following suit with the SPC's moderate area including extreme southwestern IN and south IL, however I believe the highest risk to stay further south through at least 18-20z.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: StormNine on February 05, 2008, 06:19:03 AM
As i get ready for school there is already a warning for northern Henderson and Daviess COunty and already a report of 60mph winds so already starting out pretty wicked.  Everyone be careful and hope everyone is spared damage I will be able to get updates from school at 11:25am and 1-1:15pm
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 06:27:20 AM
TNT the wxradio is down. :(
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 06:30:39 AM
Quote
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TONIGHT.

WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP. STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mark in lavergne on February 05, 2008, 06:43:49 AM
Ok a question for anyone that can answer it. I have been looking at the radr and there is alot of precip way back to the west of the front so will this come in as rain or snow after the front moves in? Could this be a big snow or nothing at all? I see the storms firing up arleady west and northwest of here.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 06:51:11 AM
SPC WENT HIGH RISK for AR and MEMPHIS AREA!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 06:51:49 AM
I don't think it will be a big snow - the temps are still showing as too warm.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 06:52:45 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif)

Quote
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0639 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF AR INTO
   FAR SWRN TN AND NWRN MS...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK BUT
   EXTENDING ENEWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE TN RIVER
   VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
   ENEWD INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
   
   OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AN OUTBREAK
   OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  MAXIMUM SEVERE THREAT AREA SHOULD THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE
   NRN HALF OF THE GULF COAST STATES LATER TONIGHT.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EXTREME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
   WIND FIELDS /H5 JET MAX IN EXCESS OF 90 KT...130+ KT AT H25/ WILL
   SUSTAIN AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
   INTO THE GULF COAST STATES/OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   WIDESPREAD...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
   MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE FROM NRN TX
   ACROSS OK.  ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
   BACKBUILD/PERSIST WITHIN BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND ENHANCED
   ASCENT NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SWD OVER THE OH RIVER
   VALLEY.
   
   SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER FAR NWRN TX AND IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
   FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NEWD ALONG SURFACE FRONT INTO NRN AR BY LATE
   TODAY AND INTO SRN IND LATER TONIGHT.  AS UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS
   EWD...DRY LINE/N-S SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SURGE EWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL TX/OK THIS MORNING AND SHIFT STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE
   LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE FRONT
   TRAILING FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
   MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND THEN LIFT NWD SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT
   AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
   LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY.  NET RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MOISTENING
   WITHIN BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TX INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS
   THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
   EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY ELEVATED...WILL
   PERSIST AS THEY SPREAD ENEWD AHEAD OF WEAKENING IMPULSES IN
   SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. /REF LATEST SWOMCDS FOR NOWCASTS ACROSS THIS
   AREA/.  HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED
   LATER THIS MORNING WITHIN EXTREME SHEAR AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER INCREASING RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS.  12Z
   SOUNDING FROM LZK AND MODIFIED OUN SOUNDING INDICATE MLCIN IS
   RELATIVELY WEAK ALREADY.  ONCE CAPPING BREAKS FROM ERN OK INTO NRN
   HALF OF AR/FAR SRN MO WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   RAMP UP QUICKLY.
   
   APPEARS SRN/ERN AR INTO FAR NRN LA/WRN TN/NWRN MS WILL REMAIN
   RELATIVELY FREE OF MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
   EARLY DAY ACTIVITY SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/MO.
   THUS...AS MAIN IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SPREAD EWD LATE
   TODAY...ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ENSUE WITHIN MLCAPE
   AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WEAK CIN.  EXTREME SHEAR WITH SFC-1 KM SRH IN
   EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 SUGGESTS STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ROTATION
   AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT ONCE THEY ROOT INTO DEEPLY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  ANY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE A LONG-LIVED
   SIGNIFICANT TORNADO IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  STORMS MAY TEND TO EVOLVE
   INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE LATE THIS EVENING AS FRONT INTERACTS WITH
   RICH GULF MOISTURE AND MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT.
    DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD GIVEN EXTREME
   WIND FIELDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT
   TORNADO WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LEWP AND PRE-SQUALL LINE
   DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...LOWER OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ENEWD INTO KY/OH RIVER VALLEY...
   EARLY DAY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE
   WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY AND SMALL CAP FROM PORTIONS OF SERN MO INTO
   NRN KY/SWRN OH.  SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
   SUPERCELLS...AND TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING IF
   STORMS BEGIN ROOTING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  /REF UPCOMING
   SWOMCD/.  LATER TONIGHT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED
   IN NATURE WITH LOW CENTER SHIFTING UP THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
   KY LATER TONIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE QUESTIONABLE
   SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...EXTREME SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE
   INFLOW TAPPING LOW/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS WARRANTS PERSISTENT
   RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AND/OR WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..EVANS.. 02/05/2008
   
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 06:57:04 AM
Morning Ron.  *yawn*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 06:57:38 AM
Is it just me, or is the High risk area showing up as SLGT?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 07:05:53 AM
Is it just me, or is the High risk area showing up as SLGT?

Refresh.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mark in lavergne on February 05, 2008, 07:08:09 AM
Smyrna
Lat: 36.01   Lon: -86.5   Elev: 558
Last Update on Feb 5, 6:56 am CST

 
Overcast

65°F
(18°C) Humidity: 84 %
Wind Speed: S 12 MPH
Barometer: 30.03" (1016.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 60°F (16°C)
Visibility: 9.00 mi.
 
 
currently in Smyrna...look at the dew point.....wow this could be bad for us later in the day guys...dew points in the 60's isnt good is it?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 07:11:05 AM
Morning Ron, everyone.

Looks like the start to an eventful day!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 07:12:32 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0152.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0639 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN AR AND FAR ERN OK AND
   SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
   
   VALID 051239Z - 051515Z
   
   STRONG ASCENT UNDERWAY AHEAD OF VIGOROUS TROUGH AND IS REFLECTED IN
   THE INCREASING WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ERN OK.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ABOVE THE CAP NOTED ON SHV/LIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAPID
   INTENSIFICATION OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS CINH CONTINUES TO DECREASE.
   
   POTENT VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE SUPPORTING SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.  MID LEVEL ROTATION ALREADY
   EVIDENT WITH STORMS W OF FSM.  AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO LOW 70S
   MLCAPES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. 
   
   TORNADIC POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY INTO WRN AR DURING
   MORNING AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 14Z.
   
   ..HALES.. 02/05/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...T SA...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 07:13:14 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0153.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN MO...S-CENTRAL/SWRN OH...NRN
   THROUGH WRN KY...EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN INDIANA...EXTREME SRN IL.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
   
   VALID 051245Z - 051445Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR MRGL SVR HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH
   NEXT 3-4 HOURS...PRIMARILY NEAR AND S OF OH RIVER AND SHIFTING INTO
   WRN/NRN KY.  POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE LOCALLY
   MAXIMIZED INVOF BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS MOVING EWD...AS PRIMARY
   CONVECTIVE BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY SEWD AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. 
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 12Z SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD
   ACROSS SRN IL AND MO OZARKS.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND
   MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  NARROW BUT
   FAVORABLE PLUME OF SFC THETAE IS EVIDENT...WITH THERMAL/MOIST AXES
   NEARLY JUXTAPOSED JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND FROM SWRN OH TO
   BETWEEN PAH-HOP.  THIS AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS
   MID-UPPER 50S F OVER OH AND N-CENTRAL/NERN KY...INCREASING TO LOW
   60S F FARTHER SW.  PRIND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY
   AHEAD OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK DIURNAL HEATING ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
   DESTABILIZATION BY MIDMORNING.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC FCST
   SOUNDINGS AND AVAILABLE RAOBS SUGGEST VERY WEAK SBCINH
   RESULTS...WITH EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED AT SFC.  EVEN THOUGH
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...MUCAPES 250-500 J/KG AMIDST
   40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   CONTINUATION OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...AND INTERMITTENT SVR
   POTENTIAL THEREWITH.  CURRENT AREA OF STRONGEST CONVECTION -- W
   SDF...MAY MAINTAIN SVR POTENTIAL EWD ACROSS SDF AREA EWD TOWARD
   COUNTIES NEAR AND N OF LEX...AS IT INTERACTS WITH PROBABLE SUBTLE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER CONVECTION NOW OVER
   S-CENTRAL OH.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/05/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...P AH...MEG...
   
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 07:18:54 AM
(http://www.trevorheath.co.uk/Limages/Lmargo.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 07:19:18 AM
Refresh.
yes dear.  *steals your coffee*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 07:28:53 AM
Is it me, or is MCD 0152 possibly hinting at the first PDS watch of the day?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 07:30:00 AM
*passes servo the bacon*

Is anyone really expecting much from this in the middle TN area before 4pm?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 07:32:43 AM
*passes servo the bacon*

Is anyone really expecting much from this in the middle TN area before 4pm?

I'm thinking SHRA/TSRA possibly around 2-4pm, but after that, once the storms find their root in the boundry layer, watch out!  Although the threat looks to be mainly to the west, it's not out of the question to see development further east. (IMO)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 07:35:15 AM
It looks like Nashville is back in the MDT category even if only barely. 
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 07:36:17 AM
I'm thinking SHRA/TSRA possibly around 2-4pm, but after that, once the storms find their root in the boundry layer, watch out!  Although the threat looks to be mainly to the west, it's not out of the question to see development further east. (IMO)
This one's going to be a "nighter" I'm thinking, which really means that those who don't normally worry about after dark convection need to keep a close watch.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 07:39:29 AM
Ron, are you all chasing today...boy if I could, I would take off right now and head for Memphis!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mook on February 05, 2008, 07:44:17 AM
Good luck on your chasing Ron.  This is my first post but I've been a member for awhile.  I'm originally from West TN, so I'm highly concerned about the area today.  Looks like you might have good roads though to chase, that high risk area has pretty flat areas from southwest TN into AR. 
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 07:45:45 AM
Ron, are you all chasing today...boy if I could, I would take off right now and head for Memphis!

Yes, we're chasing today. Should be an eventful day.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 07:46:34 AM
For whoever asked about MD hinting at PDS watch, yes they are. More than likely any watch that goes up in High Risk area will be PDS.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 07:47:02 AM
Where are you all headed?  god, make a b-line for Forrest City, AR!  It is flat west of Memphis with little vegetation.  Perfect for chasing in these parts!  I am jealous I am working today.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 05, 2008, 07:49:33 AM
For whoever asked about MD hinting at PDS watch, yes they are. More than likely any watch that goes up in High Risk area will be PDS.
Actually its mandated that watches within a High risk have to be PDS.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 07:50:46 AM
For whoever asked about MD hinting at PDS watch, yes they are. More than likely any watch that goes up in High Risk area will be PDS.

That was me.  Yes, usually I've noticed that watches tend to be PDS in high risk areas, but that aside, just the wording made me think PDS..

I've got my camera packed and ready, gonna head out myself around 3:30pm to start checking things out in this neck of the woods.  I'm nowhere near experienced, so I'm going to be extremely cautious, but do you have any advice regarding trying to hunker down and let it go past me before chasing, or should I let it chase me as a beginner?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2008, 07:54:40 AM
SPC WENT HIGH RISK for AR and MEMPHIS AREA!

WOOHOOO!!  I'm happier than Jimmy Swaggart at a lingerie convention!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 07:56:11 AM
Quote
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
708 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-052000-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVI LLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE.. .CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON. ..IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...M EMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN... TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
708 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM JONESBORO ARKANSAS...TO OAKLAND
TENNESSEE...TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI.  A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...NORTHEAST
OF THIS LINE.

A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIKELY RESULTING IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL WILL
ALSO EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 2
PM CST AND 10 PM CST FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
BETWEEN 4 PM CST AND 2 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 2 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

ALL CITIZENS LIVING IN THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTIONS NECESSARY TO PROTECT YOURSELF IF SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

KNS
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 07:57:33 AM
toastido...whatever you do, just stay to the south of whatever you are chasing...a southeast vantage point will give you the best views...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 07:58:18 AM
toastido...whatever you do, just stay to the south of whatever you are chasing...a southeast vantage point will give you the best views...

And since general storm motion is Northeast, in theory, should keep me out of harms way, right?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 08:00:12 AM
That was me.  Yes, usually I've noticed that watches tend to be PDS in high risk areas, but that aside, just the wording made me think PDS..

I've got my camera packed and ready, gonna head out myself around 3:30pm to start checking things out in this neck of the woods.  I'm nowhere near experienced, so I'm going to be extremely cautious, but do you have any advice regarding trying to hunker down and let it go past me before chasing, or should I let it chase me as a beginner?

Try to find someone more experienced to start off with. Don't put yourself in a position to have to "hunker down". Like Clarence said, try to stay S, SE of the inflow region. Be aware that SCs make abrupt right turns - especially when tornadic. That's why you want to stay on that south side.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 08:02:15 AM
Try to find someone more experienced to start off with. Don't put yourself in a position to have to "hunker down". Like Clarence said, try to stay S, SE of the inflow region. Be aware that SCs make abrupt right turns - especially when tornadic. That's why you want to stay on that south side.

Sounds like good advice, Ron.  Perhaps I'll get to make it up there to TN during the spring season, and if you're willing, go on a nice chase or two.  It sounds like it might be in my best interests to just ride this one out and see what I can see from within a safe place ;)

(i have no idea where I got Rob from.)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 08:03:15 AM
...and beware the RFD (rear flank downdraft)...it can be as strong as the freakin' tornado.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 08:13:27 AM
If any of you have pocket pc phones (Motorola Q, Samsung Blackjack, etc.) you should try MyCast by Garmin.  It is cheap through your cell provider.  Perfect for chasing as it is realtime map data.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 08:20:55 AM
Thanks for the tips, Ron and Clarence!

I think I'm going to stick with Ron's advice to go out with a more experienced chaser the first few times, and just let this one go.  :/
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2008, 08:28:23 AM
Hey Ron, I was able to find a McD's with wifi at the Parkers Crossroads/Wildersville exit off of 40.  If memory serves me correct, that's about halfway between BNA and MEM, about 20 miles outside of Jackson.  I can probably find another one closer to our end destination, or wait until we reach that one.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2008, 08:46:49 AM
BTW, if we are gonna have people watching the boob tubes and listening to the radios, it would probably be useful to watch Memphis' WMC-TV's streaming coverage online.  I'm sure they'll be online later on in the afternoon when things start popping, especially since they're smack dab in the middle of the high risk area. They might be able to give info that could be passed on to those out running the roads.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: tornadofreek1 on February 05, 2008, 08:49:19 AM
Yes that Mc D's has WiFi.. That is about 20 miles from my house. I live right off exit 148 the Centerville exit. Im not too far from there at all. But guys, like I put on another blog, Please go with someone with experience.. Do not put yourself in harms way. BE CAREFUL!..
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2008, 08:56:21 AM
Quote
Please go with someone with experience.. Do not put yourself in harms way. BE CAREFUL!..

So true.  I believe if I wasn't going with Obee-Ron-Kanobe, I'd be watching this one from my computer screen.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 09:00:05 AM
How far west do you all plan to travel?  What is your target?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 09:00:42 AM
But guys, like I put on another blog, Please go with someone with experience.. Do not put yourself in harms way. BE CAREFUL!..

Exactly.

I've been doing this for almost 15 years now, and it can still get dangerous out there. I'd be more than happy to have people just wanting to start out go with me, but please don't just go trying to chase storms just because one is on the ground nearby or you're chasing warnings. Learn first... it's safer, and you will enjoy it more when you really know what's going on.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: justinmundie on February 05, 2008, 09:01:35 AM
Guys, I can't go with you today, but I know there are several wi fi hot spots along I40. THere's a gas station at exit 87 that has wireless, and there's a gas station at exit 25 in memphis that does as well, its the one with the backyard burger inside.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:01:40 AM
Got KLZK (Little Rock radar) up on GRLevel3... waiting to see some initialization.  So far, just a batch of rain with embedded storms (still looks elevated) is moving northeast in northern Arkansas.

Scattered showers are moving northeast elsewhere in the state, but nothing too out of hand at this point.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 09:02:15 AM
How far west do you all plan to travel?  What is your target?

Jackson, TN is target. We're going to reach a wifi spot there and make our decision more specifically. May end up just across the big river which is my guess for best daylight potential.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 09:03:25 AM
Guys, I can't go with you today, but I know there are several wi fi hot spots along I40. THere's a gas station at exit 87 that has wireless, and there's a gas station at exit 25 in memphis that does as well, its the one with the backyard burger inside.

Thanks! I'm sure Eric is taking notes on the available wifi spots... at least I hope he is.  ;D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 09:04:28 AM
Oh Ronnie!!! I am so jealous...lol  Any of you have pda phones with windows mobile?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:06:01 AM
Check in here to give us your status when you can.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2008, 09:07:54 AM
Thanks! I'm sure Eric is taking notes on the available wifi spots... at least I hope he is.  ;D

OK, ok, I get the hint!!  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mook on February 05, 2008, 09:09:42 AM
Seems like East Arkansas would be prime viewing area in the afternoon, wide open spaces.  Are these passing showers currently sw of Nashville going to help at all with regards to intensity later on?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mark in lavergne on February 05, 2008, 09:10:12 AM
wish I didnt have to sleep today I would love to go with you guys.....oh by the way make sure you vote before you leave. Also be carefull out there and keep us informed as to what is happening. :P :P :P :P :P :P :P
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 09:10:58 AM
NEMAS Outlook out - they expect High Risk possible tonight for Mid TN.

Quote
Valid 05/12:00 UTC - 06/12:00 UTC

There is a High Risk of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across east central Arkansas, northeastern Louisiana, the Missouri Bootheel, western Tennessee, and northern and central Mississippi.

Surrounding the High Risk, there is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms across southern Illinois, southern Indiana, southern and southeastern Missouri, western and middle Kentucky, middle Tennessee, west central Arkansas, central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and much of western and central Alabama.

Surrounding the Moderate Risk, there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from the Upper Ohio Valley, southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast.

***Widespread, potentially major severe weather outbreak likely this afternoon and tonight across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Potential exists for widespread damaging straight-line winds and long-tracked, damaging tornadoes***

***Larger Cities in the High Risk area include Little Rock, AR... Jonesboro, AR... El Dorado, AR... Monroe, LA... Memphis, TN... Jackson, TN... Tupelo, MS... Jackson, MS***

Synopsis
Evening chart analysis and water vapor imagery shows potent upper-level trough over the Southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico tonight. Subtle shortwave evident on water vapor imagery is also tracking northeastward ahead of the main upper-level trough over northern Mexico and southwestern Texas. Meanwhile, subtropical ridge is firmly in place across the western Atlantic.

Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley
Regional radars over show thunderstorms rapidly developing this morning over central Texas as a subtle shortwave approaches from the southwest. These thunderstorms are developing on the western side of the strengthening LLJ from Texas into the MS Valley as large scale ascent begins to overspread the Plains this morning. These storms will continue through at least part of the morning with an isolated severe wind/hail threat. Air mass ahead of these storms...across the broad warm sector...will destabilize through the day, as mid-level dry air overspreads the High Risk area. Breaks in the cloud cover will likely allow for sfc temperatures to warm into the lower 70s as far north as the Paducah area, and the mid and upper 70s from TN southward and southwestward to the western and central Gulf Coast. Dewpoints are currently on the rebound again across the Lower Mississippi Valley after some mixing during the day on Monday, with lower 60 dewpoints well into northern AR and mid/upper 60 dewpoints well onshore into LA. These will spread northward and northeastward through the day as the LLJ intensifies in response to the ejecting storm system. Evening soundings across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South show strong capping inversion around 750-700mb in association with classic elevated mixed layer. Air mass will grow potentiall explosively unstable by afternoon once 73+ sfc temperatures are reached, with 700-500mb lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km already in place and modified soundings indicating 1500+ j/kg MLCAPE and -5 to -8 LIs.

Models for the past 24 hours have slowed down the progression of the storm system, and this outlook will reflect that, with HIGH/MDT areas shifted west compared to the previous Day 2 outlook for this time period. 1000-mb sfc low, currently over northwest TX. This will track northeastward toward the Mid MS Valley, and will deepen, through the day as potent upper-level trough ejects into the Plains. Large scale ascent will overspread the warm sector by late morning to early afternoon, and cap will likely break in western AR down to northeastern TX in the 17-19Z timeframe. Wind fields in all levels will strengthen through the day as 100+ kt 500-mb jet ejects into the Plains and 850-mb LLJ strengthens to 60-70 kts. Shear profiles will be strongly supportive of supercells as early as late morning across the area of concern. Currently feel that isolated surface based convection will develop from western Arkansas into northeastern Texas by early afternoon, and this will track rapidly northeastward across AR/nrn LA. As sfc temps warm at or above 74 F and large scale ascent overspreads the Mid South, cap will likely break by mid to late afternoon, and explosive supercell development will commence. 0-1 km SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2 will be widespread through the warm sector, and will strengthen to the 250-400 m2/s2 range by dusk. This kind of potent wind shear, in conjunction with rich low-level moisture and strong instability, will be very favorable for any supercell to produce long-lived, strong to violent tornadoes as they race northeastward across the High Risk area during the afternoon and evening. All major severe weather parameters and pattern recognition suggest the potential for a regional outbreak of potentially violent tornadoes will affect parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight. As upper forcing arrives in unison with surface cold front this evening, a broken squall line will develop on the cold front and will track across the HIGH/MDT areas, with a high threat of widespread damaging winds and a tornado threat. High resolution 4 km WRF data suggests that from TN southward into MS/AL, convective line will actually be a broken line of fully discrete supercells and bowing segments, and both types of convective features will continue a significant threat of long-tracked strong tornadoes across middle TN, much of MS and into a good chunk of AL during the overnight hours as the boundary layer quite possibly won't be able to decouple, due to rich low-level moisture and the pre-dusk rapid strengthening of the LLJ as far east as the AL/GA line. As potential for discrete storms into middle TN/nrn cntrl AL is further apparent for the overnight period, these regions may be upgraded to a High Risk in later outlooks. Secondary area of significant tornado potential will exist in the Mid MS and Lower Ohio Valley with the surface low, in area of moderate instability for this time of year...with low 60 dewpoints common...as well as intense low-level and deep-layer shear.

A Public Severe Weather Assessment will be issued shortly.


GOSSAGE
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mook on February 05, 2008, 09:13:25 AM
guess that answered my question lol  :(
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 09:15:55 AM
If we get some sun shining through at any point today, it is really going to prime the pump.  Latest infrared loop looks like we could see some sun later in the day...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:19:13 AM
I see what appears to be an organized wave of showers beginning to develop in eastern Arkansas, mainly south of I-40.

I have a feeling we may see some intensification in that area in the next little bit.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2008, 09:19:34 AM
Hey Ron, I'll be heading towards West BNA in about an hr or 2.  I'll be stopping at the Wal-Mart off of Charlottes Pike, exit 201 I believe.  That should be relatively close to you.  I need to go see if they have any blank vid casettes.  I have one and its a two hour tape, but having more tapes handy would make me feel better, especially if business was "booming" so to speak.  It should take me about an hour to get there from the 'Boro.  You have my cell #, just hit me up.  BTW, I found 5 McD's with hotspots between BNA, Jackson, and MEG.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: lilapsophobic on February 05, 2008, 09:26:07 AM
hey guys, any thoughts on the situation as it pertains to Memphis?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 09:28:05 AM
hey guys, any thoughts on the situation as it pertains to Memphis?

Extremely serious. You're in a High Risk area issued by the SPC.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Bobcat on February 05, 2008, 09:34:04 AM
I noticed you guys are heading to Jackson, TN.  I live there.  What time are the models predicting the bad stuff get here?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:34:52 AM
Showers are looking a little healthier in an area from just west of Forrest City to southeast of Pine Bluff.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 09:36:56 AM
I noticed you guys are heading to Jackson, TN.  I live there.  What time are the models predicting the bad stuff get here?

Late evening or tonight. We're going to use Jackson as a jumping off point to get to the areas that seem to be more favorable early. In other words, updating our plan as we go. Expect convection to fire in the next few hours in SW and W AR and N TX. I could certainly see Jackson area getting discrete activity well ahead of the front. Best thing to say is keep an eye out for watches and warnings as they will be issued rapidly once things start going today.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 09:43:55 AM
Looks like the SPC held off on issuing the PDS watch over AR and let the MD expire..  perhaps because the convection is still elevated?  I'm assuming they're waiting for it to become more sfc based before they issue a watch.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 09:45:04 AM
Looks like the SPC held off on issuing the PDS watch over AR and let the MD expire..  perhaps because the convection is still elevated?  I'm assuming they're waiting for it to become more sfc based before they issue a watch.

waiting on s/w to erode cap. Cap developed overnight which is good for tornados and VERY bad for residents in High Risk area.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 09:47:35 AM
Things are proceeding slowly...I kind of figured we would see some stuff firing by now...no watches or warnings.  Dew points low 60's everywhere.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: tornadofreek1 on February 05, 2008, 09:50:43 AM
Its just so weird to see a "HIGH RISK" area this early in the season. Not very typical at all.. I will definatly be buring the midnight oil/morning oil today!! Weather....... so amazing.....
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:52:12 AM
Nothing "explosive" occurring yet.  But, I do see some features on the radar in Arkansas.  There's the activity in east/southeast Arkansas and a few showers elsewhere, including what appears to be development along an outflow boundary from the earlier cluster well northwest of Little Rock.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 09:53:09 AM
Its just so weird to see a "HIGH RISK" area this early in the season. Not very typical at all.. I will definatly be buring the midnight oil/morning oil today!! Weather....... so amazing.....

think that's crazy? check this out:

Quote

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0947 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...WRN KY...SERN MO...EXTREME SRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
   
   VALID 051547Z - 051715Z
   
   THE HIGH RISK IS CURRENTLY BEING EXPANDED NEWD TO INCLUDE ALL OF
   NERN AR...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN.
   
   LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL PERSIST OVER BROAD WARM SECTOR WITH WIND
   SHEAR BECOMING EXTREME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
   SUPERCELLS AND BOW STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE
   LOW...TRACKING NEWD WITH TIME ALONG WARM FRONT. TORNADOES AND
   PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
   OUTLOOK.
   
   NOTE: THE ORIGINAL HIGH RISK AREA ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT...INCLUDING
   MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AR AS WELL AS NWRN MS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008

Getting an upgrade.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:55:08 AM
 :-\

Wow.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0155.gif)

I suspect that means that we may see the moderate risk expanded even further east.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 09:57:38 AM
Beat me to it. That's why I chose Jackson, TN as my starting point.  ;)

When updrafts start poking through, we'll be there.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 10:00:10 AM
Rock on!  If this stuff holds off until later, I may cut out of work around 3 and head west on 40!  Got my gear in the suv.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 10:04:32 AM
Jeff Ray's last post at WKRN:

Quote
Update…
By Jeff
February 5th, 2008 - 9:31 am

Still waiting for all the 12z stuff to come in, getting ready to head out with Justin to work on a weather special that will air soon. My biggest concern about this afternoon is if a long-track supercell makes it across the Tennessee River to our west and hits the elevated lapse overhead of us. That would make for a very bad storm. Otherwise the cloud cover will help keep us capped and we’ll “luck” out if the only threat is the squall line overnight. Probably just wind damage with that. Lisa and Davis will update later; things could easily change.

Its going to be a rough day over Arkansas today…


We have had sunny breaks in between clouds.  It is very warm, even with the clouds.  I don't know if the cloud cover will really factor much.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mook on February 05, 2008, 10:08:42 AM
I'm a little surprised a watch box hasn't been issued yet.  Must be waiting on stuff to get together..
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 10:09:30 AM
RUC's Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) attached.

Wow.

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 10:23:22 AM
New map out from the SPC.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 10:23:54 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif)

Tornado outlook:

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 10:24:34 AM
Quote
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1016 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF AR...PARTS OF NRN
   MS...WRN TN...WRN KY...AND A SMALL PART OF SRN IL AND SERN MO......
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK BUT
   EXTENDING ENEWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARD THE TN RIVER
   VALLEY......
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
   ENEWD INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF STATES......
   
   OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AN OUTBREAK
   OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  MAXIMUM SEVERE THREAT AREA WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS MS RIVER
   INTO WRN TN VALLEY AND NRN GULF STATES TONIGHT.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EXTREME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
   WIND FIELDS /H5 JET MAX IN EXCESS OF 90 KT...130+ KT AT H25/ WILL
   SUSTAIN AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
   INTO THE GULF COAST STATES/OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   WIDESPREAD...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE  THIS
   MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE FROM NRN TX
   ACROSS OK.  ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
   BACKBUILD/PERSIST WITHIN BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND ENHANCED
   ASCENT NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SWD OVER THE OH RIVER
   VALLEY.
   
   SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING RED RIVER AREA OF SRN OK/NRN TX AND IS
   FORECAST TO DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NEWD ALONG SURFACE FRONT INTO
   NRN AR BY LATE TODAY AND INTO SRN IND LATER TONIGHT.  AS UPPER
   SYSTEM EJECTS EWD...DRY LINE/N-S SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
   EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN  TX AND SHIFT STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE
   LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE FRONT
   TRAILING FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
   MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND THEN LIFT NWD SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT
   AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
   LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY.  NET RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MOISTENING
   WITHIN BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TX INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS
   THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...LOWER OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ENEWD INTO KY/MID OH RIVER VALLEY...
   
   
   EARLY DAY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE
   WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY AND SMALL CAP FROM PORTIONS OF SERN MO INTO
   NRN KY/SWRN OH.  SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
   SUPERCELLS...AND TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES ENEWD ACROSS SRN MO THIS
   EVENING AND THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET MAX ROTATES NEWD ACROSS AR
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXTREME SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE INFLOW
   TAPPING LOW/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS.
   
   WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN VICINITY OF SERN MO TO
   SRN OH THERE WILL BE A STRONG FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS TO
   DEVELOP THRU THE EVENING.  HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK NEWD INTO WRN
   KY/SRN IL FOR THE CONCERN OF LONG LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS VICINITY
   BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE THIS EVENING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY.
   
   
   ...MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
   
   EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY ELEVATED...WILL
   PERSIST AS THEY SPREAD ENEWD AHEAD OF WEAKENING IMPULSES IN
   SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
   SURFACE-BASED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN EXTREME SHEAR AND VERY
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASING RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING
   WINDS.  12Z SOUNDING FROM LZK AND MODIFIED OUN SOUNDING INDICATE
   MLCIN IS RELATIVELY WEAK ALREADY.  ONCE CAPPING BREAKS FROM ERN OK
   INTO NRN HALF OF AR/FAR SRN MO WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP QUICKLY.
   
   APPEARS SRN/ERN AR INTO FAR NRN LA/WRN TN/NWRN MS WILL REMAIN
   RELATIVELY FREE OF MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
   EARLY DAY ACTIVITY SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/MO.
   THUS...AS MAIN IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SPREAD EWD LATE
   TODAY...ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ENSUE WITHIN MLCAPE
   AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WEAK CIN.  EXTREME SHEAR WITH SFC-1 KM SRH IN
   EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 SUGGESTS STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ROTATION
   AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT ONCE THEY ROOT INTO DEEPLY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  ANY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE A LONG-LIVED
   SIGNIFICANT TORNADO IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  STORMS MAY TEND TO EVOLVE
   INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE LATE THIS EVENING AS FRONT INTERACTS WITH
   RICH GULF MOISTURE AND MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT.
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD GIVEN EXTREME
   WIND FIELDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT
   TORNADO WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LEWP AND PRE-SQUALL LINE
   DEVELOPMENT.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: dave on February 05, 2008, 10:25:34 AM
Hey Ron - what scale does the STP measure on?  Is that the expected number of large tornadoes for the entire shaded area?  Thanks-
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Matt on February 05, 2008, 10:28:56 AM
hey guys im new here...you guys are very insightful about the important weather going on. i noticed that west tennessee has a 30% chance for tornadoes. that is very impressive to me. never have i seen a tornado threat that high before! This could be a very bad day for that area.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 10:31:14 AM
Welcome to the forum, dlinematt.

Yes, the Memphis area looks to be in the bullseye of some potentially very dangerous weather later today.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 10:31:32 AM
Welcome to the forum dlinematt!  Today looks to be a bumpy one, so stay tuned, we'll try to keep things updated as much as possible and as QUICKLY as possible.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mook on February 05, 2008, 10:31:56 AM
I might be mistaken but I believe the afternoon and evening on April 7, 2006 had most of Middle TN with at least a 45%.  I had never seen that large of a probabilty before for our area.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 10:32:02 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0156.gif)

Quote
  MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1018 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SWRN MO...WRN AR
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
  
   VALID 051618Z - 051745Z
  
   SVR POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN
   OK...SWRN MO AND WRN AR.  INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   CONCERN...BUT THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WILL
   INCREASE BY EARLY AFTN.
  
   PRIMARY MID-LVL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS W TX AT
   MID-MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS N TX AND OK LATER THIS
   AFTN.  RECENT UPSWING IN TSTM INTENSITY/NUMBER ACROSS ERN OK
   SUGGESTS THAT LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE IMPULSE WAS
   BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE REGION.
  
   SFC COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS STEADILY BEEN MOVING SEWD INTO
   SERN OK THROUGH THE MORNING.  THUS FAR...TSTMS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
   ELEVATED ATOP THE DEEPENING FRONT.  BUT...WITH THE APCH OF THE
   WAVE...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR MORE SFC-BASED ACTIVITY
   AS INHIBITION WEAKENS VIA LIFT/MOISTENING.  PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND HEAT AND WITH MODEST INSOLATION
   OCCURRING ACROSS ERN OK INTO NWRN AR/SWRN MO...MLCAPES WILL APPROACH
   1000-1500 J/KG BY MID-AFTN.
  
   12Z RAOBS SHOW NEARLY 8 CM/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LVLS AND GIVEN
   MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE PSBL INITIALLY WITH
   RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL.  AS THE STORMS TRANSITION INTO A MORE
   SFC-BASED VARIETY...0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND RELATIVELY
   LOW LCL/S WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.
  
   ..RACY/SMITH.. 02/05/2008
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 10:33:20 AM
Yep... first watch of the day may be coming out very soon.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 10:34:44 AM
I hate to be the one to say it, but it looks like the SPC now sees what I saw last night regarding the high risk area.  Only differences appear to be they don't quite extend as far SW as I did at the time.  I hope everyone in the high and moderate risk areas have a tornado plan in place.  If you do not have any substantial shelter, it might be in your best interest to find some.

My usual plan is as follows: A lot of newer hotels that I've seen being built are based on 4-6" reinforced concrete walls, floors, and ceilings (with the exception of windows obviously).  It might be worth the money to get a room there if possible.  My dwelling is all wood framed, but it is on the lower story, which is good for shelter in some situations, but if a significant event occurs, I usually check into a hotel down the street. Even in that sort of situation, the best place in such a location is still the lower level/basement, in an interior hallway or small room (such as the bathroom).

Everyone keep safe!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 10:34:48 AM
Hey Ron - what scale does the STP measure on?  Is that the expected number of large tornadoes for the entire shaded area?  Thanks-

STP is an index parameter. Here's the definition straight from SPC:
Quote
Significant Tornado Parameter (fixed layer)

A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes 0-6 km bulk wind difference (6BWD), 0-1 km storm-relative helicity (SRH1), surface parcel CAPE (sbCAPE), surface parcel CIN (sbCIN), and surface parcel LCL height (sbLCL). This version of STP uses fixed layer calculations of vertical shear, and the surface lifted parcels, as an alternative to the "effective layer" version of STP.

The index is formulated as follows:

STP = (sbCAPE/1500 J kg-1) * ((2000-sbLCL)/1500 m) * (SRH1/100 m2 s-2) * (6BWD/20 m s-1) * ((200+sbCIN)/150 J kg-1)

When the sbLCL is less than 1000 m AGL, the sbLCL term is set to one, and when the sbCIN is greater than -50 J kg-1, the sbCIN term is set to one. Lastly, the 6BWD term is capped at a value of 1.5, and set to zero when 6BWD is less than 12.5 m s-1. A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RUC analysis proximity soundings.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 10:37:15 AM
Quote
Special Weather Statement

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1030 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-052000-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVI LLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE.. .CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON. ..IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...M EMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN... TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
1030 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. AREAS IN THE HIGH RISK ARE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TENNESSEE TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI.  A MODERATE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE.

A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIKELY RESULTING IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL WILL
ALSO EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 2
PM CST AND 10 PM CST FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
BETWEEN 4 PM CST AND 2 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 2 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

ALL CITIZENS LIVING IN THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTIONS NECESSARY TO PROTECT YOURSELF IF SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

SJM






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1014 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-060015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN... CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...KINGSTON SPRINGS...NASHVILLE...
LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO. ..
COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...ALLARD T...LINDEN...
LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANK LIN...BRENTWOOD...
COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBU RY...SMITHVILLE...
SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...FAIRFIELD GLADE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...
MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...TRACY CITY...ALTAMONT...COALMONT...
SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASK I
1014 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS...AND
AN APPROACHING POWERFUL COLD FRONT...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DUE TO A WARM LAYER ALOFT...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO
FORM DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THEY DO...THEY COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THEN...AS THE SLOWLY
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...A SQUALL LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE...WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN WITH EACH RUN...
SO NEWER MODEL RUNS MAY YIELD A LITTLE BETTER TIMING...BUT FOR
NOW THE THINKING IS...THE SQUALL LINE WILL REACH THE TENNESSEE RIVER
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT...NASHVILLE ABOUT 3 AM CST...AND CROSSVILLE
ABOUT 6 AM CST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS DURING THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.

IF YOU LIVE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BY DECIDING WHERE YOU AND YOUR FAMILY
WILL SEEK SHELTER.

IN A HOME OR BUILDING...MOVE TO A PRE-DESIGNATED SHELTER...SUCH
AS A BASEMENT. IF AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS NOT AVAILABLE...MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND GET UNDER
A STURDY PIECE OF FURNITURE.

STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS...AND GET OUT OF AUTOMOBILES.

MOBILE HOMES...EVEN IF TIED DOWN...OFFER LITTLE PROTECTION FROM
TORNADOES AND SHOULD BE ABANDONED.

STAY ALERT...BY LISTENING TO COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION...AND
KEEP A NOAA RADIO...WITH AN ALARM...NEARBY WHILE SLEEPING
TONIGHT. IT COULD SAVE YOUR LIFE
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 10:37:28 AM
hey guys im new here...you guys are very insightful about the important weather going on. i noticed that west tennessee has a 30% chance for tornadoes. that is very impressive to me. never have i seen a tornado threat that high before! This could be a very bad day for that area.

Keep in mind that the probability is within 25 miles of a point. In other words, thats a 30% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the risk area.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 10:37:51 AM
I might be mistaken but I believe the afternoon and evening on April 7, 2006 had most of Middle TN with at least a 45%.  I had never seen that large of a probabilty before for our area.

I was actually in Nashville for that outbreak.  I remember taking cover in the hallway closet as a 'spotted' funnel was extending heading up I-40 about 2 miles out of the charlotte park area.  I also remember the hail hitting the roof, and the fairly decent pressure changes as that storm went overhead.  I believe this was one of the storms that wound up touching down in the gallitin area. 
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 10:39:21 AM
Showers west of Memphis still don't look all that impressive (much of the activity further south from there in Arkansas has dissipated).

I suppose it's a bit early as the "cap" hasn't broken yet.  Looks like the SPC expects initialization to really begin further west in western AR/eastern OK.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 10:41:57 AM
I was actually in Nashville for that outbreak.  I remember taking cover in the hallway closet as a 'spotted' funnel was extending heading up I-40 about 2 miles out of the charlotte park area.  I also remember the hail hitting the roof, and the fairly decent pressure changes as that storm went overhead.  I believe this was one of the storms that wound up touching down in the gallitin area. 

I got pics just after the tornado hit Vol State. Did live chase interviews on WKDF. Couldn't make it any farther after that since cars from the dealership across from Vol State were all over Gallatin Rd.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 10:43:23 AM
I got pics just after the tornado hit Vol State. Did live chase interviews on WKDF. Couldn't make it any farther after that since cars from the dealership across from Vol State were all over Gallatin Rd.

Darn, too bad I didn't have the radio on... Do you have the pics hosted somewhere?  I'd love to see them.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: lilapsophobic on February 05, 2008, 10:43:40 AM
Just hit 45% for the High Risk Area.

Glad I got my storm shelter installed last year.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 10:44:32 AM
Darn, too bad I didn't have the radio on... Do you have the pics hosted somewhere?  I'd love to see them.

IIRC, they were on this forum in an old post (we were posting here during that event).

I'll see if I can dig them up. My laptop that I KNOW they were on was stolen last year.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 10:45:30 AM
Just hit 45% for the High Risk Area.

Glad I got my storm shelter installed last year.

I'm assuming you mean the 45% for wind, as torn is still at 30.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: lilapsophobic on February 05, 2008, 10:49:42 AM
I'm assuming you mean the 45% for wind, as torn is still at 30.

ah, you are correct :P
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 10:50:05 AM
Quote
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS OF THE MID
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/SOUTHERN MO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY

A STRONG LATE WINTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND OTHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST THIS MORNING...AND WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
HEATING AND MOISTENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
QUICKLY PRODUCE TORNADOES GIVEN COMBINATION OF EXTREME WINDS ALOFT
AND VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO LINES
AND CONTINUE THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND TN RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN END
SPREADING UP THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE
THREAT OF LONGER-LIVED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING
LINES. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ADDED
THREAT OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT EVENTS...BOTH TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 02/05/2008
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 10:56:58 AM
The sun is beginning to break through the clouds over here on the west side of Nashville.

Current temperature:  67.1 degrees.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 11:02:41 AM
The last observation in MEM is 72' and dewpoint at 65'....It's not going to take much for us to get there either.

Wind is kicking up a bit with some sunshine.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 11:08:07 AM
It looks like the only piece of the puzzle left is the little bit of energy in Texas...Once it kicks out, it should be on...I would venture to say that by 2:30, things will be lighting up like a Christmas tree.

**edit** Meaning Arkansas...much later for us.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 11:09:47 AM
Yep..about the time I'll be sitting in the school line.. ::)

Of course it won't be the first time I'll have my weather radio in the van. ;)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 11:24:57 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0157.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX REGION NEWD INTO SERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
   
   VALID 051716Z - 051845Z
   
   THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE UPCOMING
   CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT THIS AFTN OWING TO CONFLICTING
   MODEL GUIDANCE.
   
   LDB/PAT PROFILERS COUPLED WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY
   SUGGEST THAT A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD INTO THE
   ARKLATEX REGION.  WIND IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER HAS VEERED TO WSWLY SINCE
   ABOUT 14Z.  AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...VSBL SATL AND RADAR PORTRAY A
   DEEPENING OF THE MID-LVL CONVECTION JUST E OF DALLAS AND OVER NERN
   TX NEWD INTO SWRN AR.  BUT...UNTIL 18Z SOUNDING DATA ARRIVES...IT IS
   UNCERTAIN ON HOW THIS WAVE IS MODULATING THE THERMAL FIELDS.
   
   INHIBITION CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
   BUT...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS VIA LIFT AND WARMS FROM
   BELOW...INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS AFTN.  AT THAT
   TIME...THE MID-LVL CONVECTION MAY TRY TO ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION...SIMILAR TO LATEST
   HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-NMM/NSSL.
   
   VWP FROM LITTLE ROCK EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL TURNING WITH
   0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 260 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 55
   KTS.  IF/WHEN TSTMS BECOME SFC-BASED...MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES IN
   THE MID-LVLS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR
   TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR ASSOCD WITH DISCRETE
   STORM STRUCTURES.  FARTHER W...DMGG WINDS/HAIL WILL BE MORE LIKELY
   AS STORMS EVOLVE MORE LINEARLY ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.
   
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 05, 2008, 11:26:15 AM
2:45 SCHOOL GETS OUT HERE IN EAST TENNESSEE LETS HOPE WE DONT HAVE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FIRING.

CURRENT TEMPS IN EAST TENN.
(http://www.wdef.com/weather/wdefwebradar.jpg)
(http://chattanooga.weatherplus.com/wxpsta/maps/wxp086/futurecast/d320x240/2008.2.6.1200.2.5.12.jpg?rnd=5778799)
(http://chattanooga.weatherplus.com/wxpsta/maps/wxp086/futurecast/d320x240/2008.2.6.1400.2.5.12.jpg?rnd=9614231)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 11:32:15 AM
I think your dewpoints east of the plateau are much too low to worry about any serious tornadic threat.  If you see anything it will probably be with the frontal passage early tomorrow morning.  ;)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 05, 2008, 11:33:33 AM
thanks ;)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 11:36:15 AM
Clarksville and Smyrna are now reporting temps in the 70's.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 11:45:24 AM
I think we will see 74 or 75 today...lots of breaks in the clouds southwest of here.  I guess Ron is preparing to move.  Haven't seen him on here in a while.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mark in lavergne on February 05, 2008, 11:51:42 AM
Auntie Em Auntie Em...There's no place like home!!


be carefull onight folks!! :D :D :D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 11:52:12 AM
Current temp here in Gallatin is flucuating between 68-71 degrees. If we could get any break in the clouds then we will start to see things get interesting.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 11:52:21 AM
Quote
* Dyersburg City Schools and Dyer County Schools are dismissing students at noon today in anticipation of severe weather.
* Senatobia City Schools will dismiss today at 1PM because of the threat of severe weather.
* Developmental Skills Center in Dyersburg will also be closing at 1:00pm today due to the severe weather threat.
* The Jackson Madison County Schools that start at 7:15 AM will dismiss at 1PM today. The Jackson-Madison County Schools that begin at 8:15 AM schools will dismiss at 2PM today due to weather.

FYI. 
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Memphis Weather on February 05, 2008, 11:54:50 AM
Memphis City Schools closing at 12:30
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 11:56:17 AM
There's been a bit of light rain and drizzle recently in my area.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 11:59:34 AM
What is the West TN station where I can get early dismissal info at?  I don't have a link and I need to bookmark a Memphis station. ;)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 12:04:16 PM
Hopefully it wont be that badas everyone expects
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Sarah on February 05, 2008, 12:04:27 PM
We just had a nice shower here in North Clarksville, which dropped the temp from 70.7 to 68.0 degrees, although the dewpoint went up from 62 to 65.
I went outside earlier and it feels..."wrong" outside. Kind of creepy!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 12:05:14 PM
First watch of the day...

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0034_radar.gif)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 12:11:28 PM
When I was looking at the vis sat and the radar, it was all that streaky stuff down there that was concerning me.  PLUS, they have had some sunlight in that are too....We have had filtered sun to pretty bright sun for the last few hours.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: tornadofreek1 on February 05, 2008, 12:18:36 PM
Well unfortunatly we have sun playing peek a boo here in Centerville, which is going to make this situation worse.. Adding fuel to the fire..
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 12:21:19 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0158.gif)

Quote
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN AND WRN MS...FAR ERN AR...SWRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
   
   VALID 051811Z - 051945Z
   
   CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
   WITH TORNADOES TO DEVELOP...AND A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE WARM
   SECTOR WITH 63-66 F DEWPOINTS COMMON. SOME CAPPING REMAINS
   ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT BUT CONTINUED HEATING AND DEEPENING OF
   THE MOIST BL WILL ERODE CAP FROM BELOW.
   
   OVERALL...FORCING IS RATHER UNFOCUSED IN THE FREE WARM SECTOR.
   HOWEVER...DEEPENING LINES OF CU...WITH CONTINUED
   DESTABILIZATION...MAY RESULT IN A FEW LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS LEADING
   TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE
   FOR STORM ROTATION...THUS ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE
   TORNADOES.

   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 12:24:03 PM
The tornado watch isen't even in the high risk area, but I'm still we will see more and more as time progresses...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 12:24:32 PM
ooooh, what happened..DId your post just move, TS?  That was weird.  I thought Ryan's post was after yours.

I guess it explains why schools are letting out now in W TN.  But we kinda knew this.

Scary stuff
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 12:26:48 PM
The tornado watch isen't even in the high risk area, but I'm still we will see more and more as time progresses...

Yes, the first watch is on the western edge of the risk area (really as expected).  As time goes on, the situation is expected to become worse, as the watches move east into the high risk area (where I'm sure we'll see PDS watches).
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 12:27:57 PM
ooooh, what happened..DId your post just move, TS?  That was weird.  I thought Ryan's post was after yours.

Yes, sorry.  I deleted and re-posted.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 12:30:17 PM
Meso signatures (sheer markers) starting to show up on a couple of cells in Oklahoma.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 12:34:05 PM
Yes, sorry.  I deleted and re-posted.

I thought a tornado came and blew it away and moved it ;).....Auntie Em!!! Auntie EM!!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 12:45:54 PM
New Tornado Watch...

Quote
SEL5
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 35
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
          SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
   800 PM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST OF WEST PLAINS
   MISSOURI TO 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 34...
   
   DISCUSSION...A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER W TX WILL EJECT NEWD
   OVER N TX AND OK THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
   LOW DEVELOPS NEWD FROM SRN OK TO SRN MO ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT.
   THE LOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN DESTABILIZING ACROSS NW AR/SRN MO IN THE
   WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...AND IT APPEARS THAT STORMS NOW FORMING
   NEAR THE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE NRN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER PLUME.  STORM INTERACTIONS/MERGERS COULD ALSO LEAD TO BOW ECHO
   FORMATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF THE SURFACE
   FRONT...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 12:49:50 PM
and Im positive they will be pushing east
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 12:50:29 PM
Latest update from WAFF met Jeff Castle:

Quote
Updated: Feb 5, 2008 12:07 PM

Record high temperatures are on the way to the Heart of the Valley today.  When that happens in February ahead of a cold front, severe weather is often the result and that will be the case late today and tonight.  Temperatures today will hit the mid 70s.  Only isolated showers and storms are expected this afternoon but anything that does develop could be severe.  Most of the showers and storms will arrive tonight ahead of the cold front we're tracking.  The primary severe weather with any storms today and tonight will be damaging wind gusts.  There will be a low threat of tornadoes as well to the west of I-65 this afternoon and evening.  Showers and storms will end by 6am tomorrow.  We'll see lows tonight in the mid 50s.  The weather will cool down tomorrow with temperatures dropping into the 40s by the end of the day.  The rest of the extended forecast through the weekend looks seasonably cool and quiet.  Highs will be in the 50s with lows in the 30s.  Another shot of colder air will arrive Sunday dropping temperatures into the 40s for highs.

WAFF 48 Storm Team Chief Meteorologist Brad Travis will be streaming starting this afternoon and evening on waff.com

Also you can track storms on your cell phone using the power of WAFF Live Doppler 48.  Just point your cell phone's web browser to waff.com and click on weather then on the  Live Doppler 48 link.

Jeff Castle
Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team

The thing that scares me a bit is he seems to be playing down the overall threat quite a bit.  He was the one before that used the term "life threatening" live on the air... I wonder if he knows something I don't?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 12:55:02 PM
Latest update from WAFF met Jeff Castle:

The thing that scares me a bit is he seems to be playing down the overall threat quite a bit.  He was the one before that used the term "life threatening" live on the air... I wonder if he knows something I don't?

I'm sure hes having trouble determining what/when will happen, just like everyone else, but it is puzzling that he would say something is "life threatening" and then back off it, its like he saying two things...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 12:58:22 PM
In his video, it seems like he still thinks there is severe weather, I don't know why he would say that... it doesn't make any sense, it doesn't even line up with what the NWS/Anybody else is saying...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 01:07:31 PM
In his video, it seems like he still thinks there is severe weather, I don't know why he would say that... it doesn't make any sense, it doesn't even line up with what the NWS/Anybody else is saying...

I know, that's why it's odd to me.  I much prefer Brad Travis (the chief met there), as he does not candy coat anything...ever.  Perhaps there will be a better statement from them when he takes over.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 01:13:30 PM
Turns out he does know something I don't :)

We will have the threat for svr/torn, but it does appear to be decreasing as the cap over the area is going to require much higher temps that we are going to reach.  If there is a weakend cap due to a temp drop, it's possible it could happen, but if it does, it will likely be after sundown, which will also lower instability a bit, and provide us with more of a wind threat than a tornado threat, but we have yet to see which scenario is going to verify, so I'm still holding tight to the possibility of moderate to strong tornadic activity.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 01:15:18 PM
I'm still wondering if we will see any of those discrete supercells here in MID TN.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 01:19:57 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0158.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0158.html)

As you can see on this graphic, we would need this 700mb warm front to move in and erode our cap.  I don't think this is going to happen for us seeing that it is already 1:30.  It is probably going to time out that all we have to worry about is the approach of the front.  Weather is fickle though and things can change.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 01:22:00 PM
If that sun would just break through the cloud's(it is trying to) then this thing would get going.... I just don't know if it is going to happen...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 01:24:15 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0158.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0158.html)

As you can see on this graphic, we would need this 700mb warm front to move in and erode our cap.  I don't think this is going to happen for us seeing that it is already 1:30.  It is probably going to time out that all we have to worry about is the approach of the front.  Weather is fickle though and things can change.

That's pretty much the same boat I'm in here, too.  It'd be more likely to reach north central AL before dark than here or points north, such as middle tn.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 01:26:42 PM
Discrete activity appears to be breaking out in West TN... though nothing particularly intense yet.

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 01:28:19 PM
Here is the hazardous weather outlook from Arkansas....

Quote
weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code 
3 products issued by NWS for: Little Rock AR
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-022>025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-062>069-
052015-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ARKADELPHIA...ASH FLAT...AUGUSTA...BEEBE...
SEARCY...BENTON...BRYANT...BRINKLEY...CLAREN DON...CAMDEN...CLINTON...
CONWAY...DES ARC...DEVALLS BLUFF...DEWITT...STUTTGART...FORDYCE...
HAMPTON...HARRISON...HEBER SPRINGS...HOT SPRINGS...JASPER...
LITTLE ROCK...NORTH LITTLE ROCK...MAUMELLE...JACKSONVILLE...
SHERWOOD...LONOKE...CABOT...MARSHALL...MCGEH EE...ARKANSAS CITY...
DUMAS...MELBOURNE...MONTICELLO...MORRILTON.. .MOUNTAIN HOME...
MOUNTAIN VIEW...NEWPORT...PERRYVILLE...PINE BLUFF...RISON...
RUSSELLVILLE...SALEM...SHERIDAN...WARREN...Y ELLVILLE
100 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH 12 PM. GENERAL MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE
NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/10 TO 1/4
INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE.

$$

222




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1035 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1035 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ALL INTERESTS IN ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO MONITOR WEATHER
BULLETINS...AND SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE SAFETY
MEASURES AS REQUIRED.

A COLD FRONT...APPROACHING EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS
MORNING...IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.  AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOISTURE CONDITIONS PREVAILED.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...NOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE LIFT...TO OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FRONT WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IS ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY...AND WILL
LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE.

FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILES OF TEMPERATURE...MOISTURE...AND WIND
INDICATE THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.  ALSO...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THIS IS A DEVELOPING SITUATION...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION CAN
BE FOUND AT THE NWS LITTLE ROCK WEB SITE . GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV
AND CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS....THEN FEB 5 /SEVERE OUTBREAK/.

$$

55/57/46
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 01:30:50 PM
CHASE TEAM UPDATE

Just heard from Ron and they are in Jackson finding a place to set up.  Looks like some thunderstorms are starting to fire, but look to be garden variety for now.  His connection was pretty choppy, but they are looking for a wi-fi spot now.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: msdawg911 on February 05, 2008, 01:33:12 PM
I'm here in Germantown (suburb of Memphis), and many schools are letting out of school early. Many news stations are using their winter weather tickers to display school closings. I will try to post as much as I can throughout the evening to bring the forum up to date.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: lilapsophobic on February 05, 2008, 01:35:53 PM
I'm here in Germantown (suburb of Memphis), and many schools are letting out of school early. Many news stations are using their winter weather tickers to display school closings. I will try to post as much as I can throughout the evening to bring the forum up to date.

I checked on Mt Pisgah (county school) and they aren't closing. Neither is KinderCare (off Germantown Rd).
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: msdawg911 on February 05, 2008, 01:38:06 PM
City schools and several other schools are closing...frankly I think it's kinda stupid to close early since most of the severe wx will move in later this afternoon...but I understand the liability issue
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 01:38:27 PM
Looks like mainly showers firing here in N AL, however, there appears to be a cell trying to fire up just south of nashville. almost at the davidson cty line.

EDIT: it fell apart.

Next cell trying to fire in middle tn is just to the east of Lawrenceburg
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 01:44:35 PM
Current temperature where I am:  70.5 degrees, with Pt. Sunny skies.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 01:47:56 PM
Here the temp is 68.4, sun is shining through a few breaks in the clouds, still mostly cloudy.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 01:48:47 PM
City schools and several other schools are closing...frankly I think it's kinda stupid to close early since most of the severe wx will move in later this afternoon...but I understand the liability issue

I think the schools can't win no matter what they decide.  With them closing this early, they have plenty of time to get all the bus routes completed which is probably a good idea.  On the other hand, the other problem it causes is that it has kids at home alone that probably shouldn't be.  
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 01:50:32 PM
TVS signature showing up on a cell west of Fayetteville, Arkansas, in the extreme northwest corner of the state.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 01:51:11 PM
Skies looking ominous here now... kinda like it does before it storms real good.  Temp 72/63, mostly cloudy
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 01:56:24 PM
New day 1 out from SPC, and the maps look like duplicates of the previous, the text, is below.

Quote
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR INTO WRN KY...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
   NERN TX INTO SWRN OH...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   INTO CENTRAL OH...
   
   ...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY
   FOR LONG-TRACK DAMAGING TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS LEADING EDGE OF IMPRESSIVE
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH DRYLINE OVER TX.
   CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SEVERAL
   HEALTHY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE HILL/ELLIS/DALLAS COUNTY
   AREA.  JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE IS NOTED
   ALONG AN AXIS ROUGHLY 100 MI WIDE INTO SERN OK.  AIRMASS IS WARMING
   NICELY ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL INTO THE
   70S.  18Z SOUNDINGS JUST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGEST STRONG CAP HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED...PER
   SHV/LZK/JAN.  AS THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES IT APPEARS THIS
   CAP WILL LIFT AND BECOME NEGLIGENT.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAT EXIST
   WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS AR INTO NRN LA WILL DEEPEN
   BECOMING DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WELL AHEAD OF THE
   DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.  THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE SOME TIME...BUT IT
   APPEARS BY EARLY EVENING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROVE
   EXTENSIVE...STRETCHING FROM THE ARKLATEX...NEWD INTO WRN TN/KY...SWD
   INTO NRN LA/MS.  GIVEN THE 110KT H5 JET THAT WILL EJECT ACROSS THIS
   REGION THIS EVENING...EXTREME VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ENHANCE
   THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  ALTHOUGH DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE
   EXPECTED...STORM MERGERS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD ENHANCE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF BOW-TYPE
   STRUCTURES DEVELOP.  THIS PROCESS MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT STORM MODE
   LATE TONIGHT EAST OF THE MS RIVER.  IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS MAINLY ACROSS
   THE WRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK.
   
   ..DARROW.. 02/05/2008
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Stevo on February 05, 2008, 01:58:54 PM
Hey folks, sun is shining here in Antioch.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 01:59:42 PM
Davis Nolan's latest post at WKRN

Quote
Severe Weather Still A Threat Tonight Through Early Morning Wednesday (Possibly Earlier)
By Davis
February 5th, 2008 - 1:12 pm


Click to read text from The Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlook

We still anticipate strong to severe storms that could contain damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. The timing is the tricky part. I will break it down for you, but it is a little complicated, and times may change by 1-3 hours. Please keep that in mind.

The actual cold front does not get here until around sunrise Wednesday, but storms could get here earlier than that. We anticipate a line of storms out ahead of that front to push across the Middle Tennessee area generally between midnight and 6am (with Nashville in the 3-4am time frame). If that line stays back with the front itself, that could be several hours later. The other question is whether storms will develop out ahead of that line that could be supercells containing tornadoes, as well. If those occur, we could be seeing tornadic storms during the evening hours before midnight, and possibly even late this afternoon. Look at the Meso Discussion below from the Storm Prediction Center concerning West Tennessee, Mississippi, and Eastern Arkansas for this afternoon:



The bottom line is we have to start watching this afternoon and evening for any “pre frontal” activity that may develop, as well as the line of storms overnight into the morning hours of Wednesday.

Read our National Weather Service’s Special Weather Statement.

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: dave on February 05, 2008, 02:04:48 PM
Since this is obviously a pretty big deal, I was wondering why there are not more tornado watches already posted?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: bingo299 on February 05, 2008, 02:07:03 PM
I just do not see this happening in Middle Tenenssee as predicted because the cap has not been broken and because we have not had the mixixng of the atmosphere form the sun that is often needed in these situations. I think aeas to the south and west will be affected and not middle tennesee. We ahve a blanket or bubble of protection around us preventing most any and all weatehr anomalies.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 02:07:54 PM
The most immediate threat is still confined to the westernmost part of the risk area.  But, watches will start being issued further east as the whole system continues eastward.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2008, 02:10:44 PM
We're heading from Jackson to cross over the river into AR it looks like.

Gotta get on the road to catch some daylight. We'll post at the next wifi spot we stop at.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 02:13:45 PM
New watch out for most of Arkansas.

First PDS.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0036_radar.gif)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 02:16:42 PM
Sun is out here, now 70.4 degrees.

The small storm cell that was over Jackson is diminishing.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 02:26:10 PM
I think things are going to fire further east of the latest watch area in the next little bit as well.  The cap is eroding southwest of us.  It may get very wild for all of us before this night is over.  WOW!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Reneezelle on February 05, 2008, 02:29:36 PM
So with it being Sunny out my window, 5 mins from the airport but TWC forecasts from BNA (correct??) And it says Light Rain... what the heck is going on? My mediocre knowledge is saying the sunshine is lending to a unstable atmosphere for the rest of the day.  ??? ??? ???
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 02:32:50 PM
Stick with the pros here Renee  ;)  We should be in the sun for the remainder of the afternoon.  It has come out just enough to burn off the low level stuff.  Dew points south of Memphis are ridiculous.  Approaching 70 in spots.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 02:36:24 PM
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
232 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...(THRU THU NITE)
CURRENT...SOME -SHRA MOVED ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS. TEMPS 65 TO 70 FOR MOST PART.

FOR TONITE...HI RISK SEVERE TO OUR W...AND MODERATE RISK
CONTINUES ALL BUT PLATEAU AND ADJACENT AREAS. ACTION STARTING TO
CRANK UP OVER SW MO TO ERN TX...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
SHOWING UP OVER N MS. STILL EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER TONITE...ALTHO
AGAIN THE MAIN SHOW HAS BEEN DELAYED...SO THAT NOW THE SQUALL LINE
(DAMAGIN WIND MAIN THREAT) WILL NOT MOVE INTO W PRTIONS OF CWA TIL
AFTER MIDNITE...AROUND 09Z BNA...AND 12Z CSV. HELICITY VALUES
AHEAD OF FRONT HI ENUF TO SUPPORT ISOLD SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT B4
SQUALL LINE ARRIVES.

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EARLY MORNING MAINLY EAST...AND DRY SLOT
WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING DAY...BUT H925 MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
SYSTEM BACK OVER CWA DURING DAY. WED NITE INTO THU NITE COOLER AND
QUIET.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 02:37:47 PM
First tornado warning just went up in northern Louisiana...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 05, 2008, 02:42:10 PM
sun breaking through clouds, sunny at times in eastern tennessee aka CHATTANOOGA and vicinty. TEMPS iN LOWER TO MIDDLE 70'S.

is that good for us or bad?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 02:43:52 PM
Snow, it isn't too bad if your dewpoints stay at 60 or below...I still think your environment and geography down that way favor you.

That cell that went tornadic in LA is moving into AR and is impressive!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Storm Central on February 05, 2008, 02:45:06 PM
WOW..WELL THANKS
OFF TO WORK.
BE ON TONIGHT.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 02:58:57 PM
Wheeee!  Internet's been down all day.  What'd I miss?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Blondielocks on February 05, 2008, 02:59:36 PM
Does anyone think the severe weather will hold together east of Nashville tonight
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 03:00:56 PM
72 and moderately sunny here in Antioch right now.

TNT - the broadcast is no workee.  :(
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 03:01:59 PM
Blondie, looks like you are in Hartsville, so you will be in "the zone" all evening as well.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 03:02:54 PM
Looks like some pretty healthy cells in the Memphis area now.  No warnings yet.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Blondielocks on February 05, 2008, 03:05:03 PM
Blondie, looks like you are in Hartsville, so you will be in "the zone" all evening as well.

 :D ;D you brightened my day....and the sun just came out as well
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: msdawg911 on February 05, 2008, 03:07:16 PM
New watch coming out, specifics not available yet

(http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/tmp/47a8cfd1_57a6_0.png)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 03:08:14 PM
*watching the cells in Memphis - just got a call from Ron - he's out there now and looking to keep an eye on things*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 03:14:43 PM
New watch for West TN is a PDS.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: msdawg911 on February 05, 2008, 03:16:01 PM
New watch for West TN is a PDS.
See the warning thread: http://forums.tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,1028.msg14546/topicseen.html#new
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 03:17:00 PM
The SPC shows the following info for this watch area:

Quote
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
 High (90%)

 
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
 High (70%)

 
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
 High (90%)

 
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
 High (70%)

 
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
 High (80%)

 
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
 Mod (40%)

 
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
 High (>95%)

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 03:18:22 PM
I seriously look for it to be expanded further east to at least the I65 corridor in the next couple of hours.  This is truly an amazing and rare event!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: lyngo on February 05, 2008, 03:23:03 PM
Quote
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
 High (70%)

Wowza!  Just out of curiosity, where and when was the last F5 to touch down in Tennessee? I can't recall one off the top of my head.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Matt on February 05, 2008, 03:24:57 PM
i think in 1998 down in lawrence/wayne/ perry county area? i remember an f5 in linden bont dont remember if that was the last.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 03:25:09 PM
April 1998 in Wayne County.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 03:28:02 PM
Someone call Ron and tell him to hold tight in the Memphis area...I am afraid if he crosses over into Arkansas he is going to be too far west...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: lyngo on February 05, 2008, 03:33:53 PM
April 1998 in Wayne County.

Thanks Clarence and dlinematt...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Matt on February 05, 2008, 03:35:21 PM
no problem Lyngo ;)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 03:39:21 PM
Just to let everyone know that the NOAA Weather Radio OHX(North) Stream is back up and running... how many watches do we have now?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 03:40:27 PM
Thank ya sir.

Anyone else keeping a close eye on that cell sliding up from Tunica, MS?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 03:41:14 PM
4 TNT 2 of them PDS
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 03:42:21 PM
Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA AND AR
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 36...
   
   VALID 052136Z - 052300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 36 CONTINUES.
   
   ...INCREASING RISK FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
   HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING OVER A
   LARGE PART OF AR AND NRN LA AND POINTS EWD...
   
   21Z JACKSON SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS ERODED.  INCREASING
   ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WAS RESULTING IN
   NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SPROUTING INTO TSTMS.  STRONG WIND
   PROFILES AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE /LZK VWP SRH 330+
   M2/S2/ ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT RISKS FOR STRONG
   TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.  THE UNSTABLE WARM
   SECTOR COVERS A LARGE REGION OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND ANY STORM THAT
   BECOMES ESTABLISHED COULD BE LONG-LIVED. 
   
   LATER THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER WRN PORTIONS
   OF THE WW WITH ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR SVR TSTMS WITH ALL FACETS OF SVR
   WEATHER PSBL.
   
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 03:42:33 PM
19 Warnings, including 3 FFW in MO.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: StormNine on February 05, 2008, 03:50:59 PM
Things could explode in the next few hours across this area be careful
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 03:51:37 PM
Tornado touchdown reported near Hamburg, Arkansas (southeastern part of the state).

Here is the radar shot of the hook...

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 03:52:26 PM
Ok, thanks, I've been busy as a hornets nest around here...

btw here is WMC(memphis) special weather streaming link, I don't know if it is working right now, but here it is

mms://a228.l544447749.c5444.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/228/5444/v0001/reflector:47749 (http://mms://a228.l544447749.c5444.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/228/5444/v0001/reflector:47749)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 03:56:44 PM
I'm in the chat room, if anyone wants to jump in....
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 03:58:20 PM
Whee!  The guys are in Memphis, trying to get out of the city to the south - a couple of the storms are starting to bow out a little and show shear markers!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 04:04:04 PM
Tornado touchdown reported near Hamburg, Arkansas (southeastern part of the state).

Here is the radar shot of the hook...

That is a wicked shot, TS...whew!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 05, 2008, 04:04:45 PM
Just got in from voting guys. Everyone stay safe!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 04:09:24 PM
Tornadic supercell (the one that was confirmed near Hamburg, AR) is still looking strong and approaching the town of Arkansas City.

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 04:20:38 PM
Shear marker showing up in southern Shelby County.  Looks like greater Memphis is getting in on the action now.  Would expect warnings for that area very soon.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 04:27:21 PM
They got a nice punch of dry air over that way forcing all the stuff!  ;D
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: lyngo on February 05, 2008, 04:27:35 PM
Man, I'll be glad to get home this afternoon!  I haven't been able to follow much of anything today.  Ya know...some of us have to work for a living!  ;D  ;)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 04:30:30 PM
That cell just north of Greenville, MS has been rockin' for an hour now.  It fired up in northern LA a long time ago.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: dave on February 05, 2008, 04:37:17 PM
Tornado Warning for Desoto and Tate Counties just south of metro Memphis
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 04:42:31 PM
TVS markers just east of downtown Memphis.

Ron and Eric are there and chasing this.  I've been on the phone with Ron.

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 04:44:31 PM
I've suggested that they head up toward Bartlett and in the direction of Millington to chase this thing.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 04:46:17 PM
Tornado warning just issued for that cell
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 04:49:48 PM
The guys are in the thick of the new TOR wrn in Memphis, heading toward Millington.

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 04:52:10 PM
The guys say that there's a tornado on the ground out there.  They're trying to get close to it.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: StormNine on February 05, 2008, 04:53:32 PM
It is wicked out there some of that could move to west mid tn and west ky soon to.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 04:59:06 PM
Tornado on the ground near Bartlett, per trained spotter (according to report form Talkweather.com).  That's right where Ron and Eric are.

I have to go soon though.   :(  Everybody say on top of it!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 05, 2008, 05:00:59 PM
WREG.com doing live streaming coverage. Had a visual of the forming tornado as the storm moved through.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 05:01:38 PM
Link?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 05, 2008, 05:03:02 PM
go to wreg.com and click on live streaming. you can listen while talking to us. New Tornado warnings for Nw Mississippi just sw of memphis.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 05:05:26 PM
Thank you sir.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 05:09:38 PM
http://www.wmcstations.com/

That is a Memphis TV Station.  They are doing live streaming too
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: ultra mag on February 05, 2008, 05:13:43 PM
 Very impressive hook on that cell south of brownsville.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 05:19:18 PM
How's that cap holding up in middle Tennessee?
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 05:19:41 PM
Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 37...
   
   VALID 052315Z - 060115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 37 CONTINUES.
   
   SUPERCELLS ARE EXHIBITING VERY STRONG COUPLETS AND ARE PRODUCING
   TORNADOES ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. THIS CLUSTER OUTBREAK OF
   TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   AREA WIND PROFILERS ARE SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 300-500 M2/S2 0-1 SRH.
   GIVEN STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND TREMENDOUS
   SHEAR...A FEW OF THESE TORNADOES MAY BECOME VIOLENT...PRODUCING
   DAMAGE OVER LONG SWATHS AND ENDANGERING LIVES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: msdawg911 on February 05, 2008, 05:26:00 PM
Very impressive hook on that cell south of brownsville.

Here are some 3D grabs I got about 20 mins ago:


(http://www.germantownwx.com/1.png)

(http://www.germantownwx.com/2.png)

(http://www.germantownwx.com/3.png)

(http://www.germantownwx.com/4.png)

(http://www.germantownwx.com/5.png)

(http://www.germantownwx.com/6.png)
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 05:31:22 PM
the boys are heading into it
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 05:31:41 PM
Here are some 3D grabs I got about 20 mins ago:

Wow.  :o
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 05:33:46 PM
Those are impressive Jake..There's another cell heading into Memphis proper from MS
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 05:41:26 PM
A Tornado EMERGENCY was issued for Shelby DeSoto and Fayette Counties issued by the NWS.

Just reported by WMC-TV
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 05:45:15 PM
*is getting really annoyed with the chatroom*

The guys are just this side of bartlett on I40.  I told 'em to sit tight, maybe slide a little west and hang on for the ride.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 05:51:44 PM
Okay, so the chatroom officially hates me.

Update:  I'm hoping the guys are okay - my cellphone keeps dropping them :(

Last I spoke to Ron just a moment ago, there was a large tornado on the ground near them but they couldn't see it - it's dark out there.

Let's hope!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 05, 2008, 05:55:14 PM
Alright guys. I now have to head out to a meeting. Ya'll keep an eye on this thing. I will chime in when I get home.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 05:56:04 PM
*screams*

They're in Lakeland and I can't get the GPS to work on my radar. :(
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: msdawg911 on February 05, 2008, 06:05:20 PM
Well, Germantown just dodged a bullet...confirmed tornado on ground near Hickory Ridge Mall...my family went into the closet for about 20 minutes.

I also heard that nonessential personnel at the NWS in east Memphis was evacuated about 20 min ago...

I'll try to keep yall updated throughout the evening
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 06:09:10 PM
WMC reporting wall blown in on Sears store at Hickory Ridge....semis blown into warehouse
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 06:09:59 PM
The storms appear to be losing their intensity???
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 06:18:12 PM
The guys have one on the ground just east of Bartlett, Eric is filming it now!! :o :o
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 06:18:48 PM
The guys have one on the ground just east of Bartlett, Eric is filming it now!! :o :o

Wow...I hope they can stay safe.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 06:23:54 PM
New mesoscale...


Quote
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0615 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KY/SW OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
   
   VALID 060015Z - 060145Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE THIS EVENING.  ADDITIONAL WWS ARE LIKELY.
   
   A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE NEAR A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS
   NOW THE FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SEVERAL
   POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
   SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY.  BETWEEN NOW AND 03-04Z...THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
   PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AS IT NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO
   VALLEY...TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE
   MIGRATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  THIS
   FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THROUGH
   THE VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
   SOUTHERN OHIO.  AND...THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
   STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS.  EXTREME SHEAR BELOW LOW-LEVEL
   JET AXIS WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES...WHICH COULD
   AFFECT LOUISVILLE...CINCINNATI ...AND ADJACENT AREAS.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/06/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
   
   36908797 37678798 38718715 39478586 39548445 39028389
   37768461 36678618 36628741

I'm sure one will come out for Mid TN soon..
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 06:37:44 PM
This one in Mississippi looks particularly menacing ........... AND heading right for ME!  If it stays together that long.



[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 06:42:56 PM
West of Jackson



[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 06:47:37 PM
And Susan....what a cowinky dink you should mention that...Ron and Eric are chasing that one just now.  I'm watching the streaming on WMC in Memphis and this was has some strong tornadic indicators (9 out of 10).  *Interrupt*  They had alot of damage in the road so they are right behind it, this is the same one they caught earlier.  LOTS of damage, people out of their houses, surveying.

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 06:53:01 PM
Wow.

servo - when you talk to Ron next, please apologize for my lack of being able to do much of anything.  *sigh*  Dang phone.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 06:53:49 PM
Hope they safe,but I know they are havin fun
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: armyfemme on February 05, 2008, 06:57:42 PM
I've already missed so much (stupid job)... I am here now and waiting for things to start rocking up here in Clarksville... winds are picking up, temp dropped a few degrees and lighting in the distance...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 06:57:54 PM
servo, I have been trying to listen to WMc but it keeps cutting out on me and it is difficult to keep up with the broadcast.   >:(

Thanks for the update.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: msdawg911 on February 05, 2008, 06:59:41 PM
Many reports of damage coming from various parts of the metro area...WMC reports that there are many victims at The Med (severe tramua hospital downtown). Also, there is a report of a roof collapse at Sears at Hickory Ridge Mall.

Also, several TORs have used the terminology "Tornado Emergency"...

This is one of the worst outbreaks I've seen in a long time...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: DocB on February 05, 2008, 07:01:21 PM
In the Jackson area

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 07:02:49 PM
Ron and Eric are stuck right now...roads are blocked by debris.  They have actually stopped and are aiding people who are trapped in their house.

My husband has heard reports from people he's talked to (the company he works for has stores in Memphis) that there have been 3 deaths in Arkansas, but I can't confirm that info.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 07:06:21 PM
servo, where are Ron and Eric right now???
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: dapig on February 05, 2008, 07:07:03 PM
I hope it takes a while to get to mid tn. Like after midnight I am at a ball gmae keeping an eye on the weather for the administrator
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: VandyMachine on February 05, 2008, 07:09:54 PM
Tornado Emergency Issued for Madison County - Jackson , TN.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 07:15:52 PM
servo, where are Ron and Eric right now???

They are just west of Jackson, trying to find a clear road to get home.  There was no response from anyone from the home that was destroyed, so they believe there was no one there.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 07:17:10 PM
*hopes that no one was home*
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 07:17:20 PM
New watch...


Quote
SEL9
  
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   810 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA
          CENTRAL KENTUCKY
          SOUTHWEST OHIO
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 810 PM
   UNTIL 200 AM EST.
  
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
   INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.
    FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
  
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37...WW
   38...
  
   DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SEVERAL
   SUPERCELLS...OVER SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN KY WILL TRACK EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  VERY STRONG
   FORCING AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SUPERCELLS
   AND BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES.
  
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
  
  
   ...HART

 
   SEL9
  
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   810 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA
          CENTRAL KENTUCKY
          SOUTHWEST OHIO
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 810 PM
   UNTIL 200 AM EST.
  
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
   INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.
    FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
  
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37...WW
   38...
  
   DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SEVERAL
   SUPERCELLS...OVER SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN KY WILL TRACK EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  VERY STRONG
   FORCING AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SUPERCELLS
   AND BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES.
  
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
  
  
   ...HART

 
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

   WOUS64 KWNS 060105
   WOU9
  
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 39
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   810 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008
  
   TORNADO WATCH 39 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
  
   INC005-013-019-021-025-027-029-031-037-041-043-047-055-059-061-
   063-065-071-077-079-081-083-093-097-101-105-109-115-117-119-121-
   123-133-137-139-143-145-153-155-161-165-167-175-177-060700-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0039.080206T0110Z-080206T0700Z/
  
   IN
   .    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
  
   BARTHOLOMEW          BROWN               CLARK              
   CLAY                 CRAWFORD            DAVIESS            
   DEARBORN             DECATUR             DUBOIS              
   FAYETTE              FLOYD               FRANKLIN            
   GREENE               HANCOCK             HARRISON            
   HENDRICKS            HENRY               JACKSON            
   JEFFERSON            JENNINGS            JOHNSON            
   KNOX                 LAWRENCE            MARION              
   MARTIN               MONROE              MORGAN              
   OHIO                 ORANGE              OWEN                
   PARKE                PERRY               PUTNAM              
   RIPLEY               RUSH                SCOTT              
   SHELBY               SULLIVAN            SWITZERLAND        
   UNION                VERMILLION          VIGO                
   WASHINGTON           WAYNE              
  
  
   KYC001-003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-037-041-045-049-
   053-057-061-067-073-077-079-081-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111-
   113-117-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-187-
   191-201-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-239-060700-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0039.080206T0110Z-080206T0700Z/
  
   KY
   .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
  
   ADAIR                ALLEN               ANDERSON            
   BARREN               BOONE               BOURBON            
   BOYLE                BRACKEN             BRECKINRIDGE        
   BULLITT              BUTLER              CAMPBELL            
   CARROLL              CASEY               CLARK              
   CLINTON              CUMBERLAND          EDMONSON            
   FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            GALLATIN            
   GARRARD              GRANT               GRAYSON            
   GREEN                HANCOCK             HARDIN              
   HARRISON             HART                HENRY              
   JEFFERSON            JESSAMINE           KENTON              
   LARUE                LINCOLN             LOGAN              
   MADISON              MARION              MEADE              
   MERCER               METCALFE            MONROE              
   NELSON               NICHOLAS            OHIO                
   OLDHAM               OWEN                PENDLETON          
   ROBERTSON            RUSSELL             SCOTT              
   SHELBY               SIMPSON             SPENCER            
   TAYLOR               TRIMBLE             WARREN              
   WASHINGTON           WOODFORD            
  
  
   OHC017-025-061-113-135-165-060700-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0039.080206T0110Z-080206T0700Z/
  
   OH
   .    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
  
   BUTLER               CLERMONT            HAMILTON            
   MONTGOMERY           PREBLE              WARREN              
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN...LMK...
  
  
  

 
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

   SAW9
   WW 39 TORNADO IN KY OH 060110Z - 060700Z
   AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   30ENE IND/INDIANAPOLIS IN/ - 20S BWG/BOWLING GREEN KY/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /29E IND - 15S BWG/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
  
   LAT...LON 39868405 36668480 36668804 39868744
  
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU9.
  

Watch 39 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 07:19:27 PM
Watch for Mid TN

Quote
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 40
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
720 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

TORNADO WATCH 40 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TNC005-021-037-043-055-081-083-085-099-101-111-117-119-125-135-
147-149-161-165-169-181-187-189-060700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0040.080206T0120Z-080206T0700Z/

TN
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               CHEATHAM            DAVIDSON
DICKSON              GILES               HICKMAN
HOUSTON              HUMPHREYS           LAWRENCE
LEWIS                MACON               MARSHALL
MAURY                MONTGOMERY          PERRY
ROBERTSON            RUTHERFORD          STEWART
SUMNER               TROUSDALE           WAYNE
WILLIAMSON           WILSON
$$


ATTN...WFO...OHX...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 07:23:28 PM
The Jackson tornado appears to be weakening.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 07:26:04 PM
Quote
SEL0
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 40
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   720 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 720 PM
   UNTIL 100 AM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
   CLARKSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE
   TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37...WW
   38...WW 39...
   
   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS OVER WESTERN TN AND
   NORTHEAST MS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WATCH AREA THIS
   EVENING.  VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A RISK OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND HAIL THROUGH FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  FARTHER
   WEST...SQUALL LINE OVER AR WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT REGION AFTER
   MIDNIGHT.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
   
   
   ...HART

 
   SEL0
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 40
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   720 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 720 PM
   UNTIL 100 AM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
   CLARKSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE
   TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37...WW
   38...WW 39...
   
   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS OVER WESTERN TN AND
   NORTHEAST MS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WATCH AREA THIS
   EVENING.  VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A RISK OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND HAIL THROUGH FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  FARTHER
   WEST...SQUALL LINE OVER AR WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT REGION AFTER
   MIDNIGHT.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
   
   
   ...HART

 
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

   WOUS64 KWNS 060116
   WOU0
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 40
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   720 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
   
   TORNADO WATCH 40 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   TNC005-021-037-043-055-081-083-085-099-101-111-117-119-125-135-
   147-149-161-165-169-181-187-189-060700-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0040.080206T0120Z-080206T0700Z/
   
   TN
   .    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BENTON               CHEATHAM            DAVIDSON           
   DICKSON              GILES               HICKMAN             
   HOUSTON              HUMPHREYS           LAWRENCE           
   LEWIS                MACON               MARSHALL           
   MAURY                MONTGOMERY          PERRY               
   ROBERTSON            RUTHERFORD          STEWART             
   SUMNER               TROUSDALE           WAYNE               
   WILLIAMSON           WILSON             
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...
   
   
   

 
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

   SAW0
   WW 40 TORNADO TN 060120Z - 060700Z
   AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   15ENE CKV/CLARKSVILLE TN/ - 85SSW BNA/NASHVILLE TN/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /38WSW BWG - 21NNE MSL/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
   
   LAT...LON 36688636 34998645 34998805 36688798
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU0.
   

Watch 40 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: VandyMachine on February 05, 2008, 07:31:40 PM
Reports of heavy damage at Union University north of Jackson.

Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 07:32:40 PM
Yes, Union University received a direct hit, roof blown off dorm and people trapped.

If the tornado that is presently just west of Savannah continues on its present track it will go right through Bellevue, West Nashville area.

The Memphis/Jackson tornado is on track to pass just south of Hopkinsville.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Andy on February 05, 2008, 07:38:31 PM
Up here in South Central Ky, we are under a Tornado watch. Things seem SO UNSTABLE... I am hoping for the best, but I sure have a strange feeling about this weather situation...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: VandyMachine on February 05, 2008, 07:39:37 PM
Lets hope for unfavorable conditions! The Jackson Supercell looks to be weakening somewhat.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 07:40:15 PM
The tornado just west of Savannah.



[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 07:43:34 PM
Quote
weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code 
5 products issued by NWS for: 3 Miles SE Big Sandy TN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
TNC005-060200-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0005.080206T0130Z-080206T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
730 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  BENTON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAMDEN...

* UNTIL 800 PM CST

* AT 726 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 26 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF CAMDEN...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNTINGDON...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMDEN BY 755 PM CST...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3619 8794 3614 8790 3603 8801 3595 8801
      3593 8794 3584 8795 3584 8821 3586 8824
      3612 8823 3626 8811 3635 8799
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 239DEG 47KT 3592 8846

$$

31
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 07:55:55 PM
Ron and Eric???
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: armyfemme on February 05, 2008, 08:01:37 PM
Things are really starting to cook here in Montgomery County... no hail..just extremely strong winds and lightning
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 08:03:44 PM
On a 7 mile stretch of I-40, just west of Jackson, there are 15 overturned tractor trailers.  Reported by WMC
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 08:03:50 PM
im tellin ya that cell south of 40 is not letting up and on a direct path for west nashville.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: bellatrixr on February 05, 2008, 08:07:11 PM
37211 (Nashville/Brentwood) ... first rumbles of thunder
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 08:08:10 PM
CHASE TEAM UPDATE

Did a "WELL-CHECK" on the guys...They are going to have to "go around" the semi-trailers that are overturned on I-40 but are on their way home.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: bingo299 on February 05, 2008, 08:09:50 PM
I am in Manchester. Everyone please stay safe. Godspeed
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:10:16 PM
Starting to get the first sprinkles of rain here and can see flashes of lightening.   Antioch.

Thank goodness the boys are okay.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 05, 2008, 08:10:47 PM
Looks like I could get hit head on here in bellevue!
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 08:13:13 PM
Looks like I could get hit head on here in bellevue!

Indeed.  there are 4 tor warned cellls heading directly towards davidson county from the southwest
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 08:14:11 PM
You are right bellevue...that thing isnt losing steam, and wherever it traverses up this way, it is going to do some damage...cheatham and west davidson on target in thirty mins.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:14:45 PM
batten down the hatches!

I'm in Antioch and gettin nervous - the air outside went from icky sticky to SWEAT
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 08:14:58 PM
Quote
weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code 
5 products issued by NWS for: Hohenwald TN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
TNC081-101-135-181-060245-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0008.080206T0210Z-080206T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
810 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  LEWIS COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOHENWALD...
  SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LINDEN...
  NORTH CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 845 PM CST

* AT 807 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LINDEN...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOHENWALD BY 825 PM CST...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3590 8757 3557 8732 3539 8779 3563 8794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 239DEG 42KT 3556 8780

$$

31
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 08:16:27 PM
Is there a chance more supercells will form to our south or west
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: armyfemme on February 05, 2008, 08:16:52 PM
Glad to hear the guys are okay -- I still owe them a good meal ;)

Everything just stopped in Clarksville..no wind, no rain...some random lighting - weird
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 05, 2008, 08:16:58 PM
I will keep you all informed as best I can. I have a camera ready to take film if I need to. Wish it were light out so i could see.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 08:19:04 PM
Be safe everyone, whatever you do
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 08:19:13 PM
Good gracious... I see everything's been breaking loose since I've been away.  Trying to digest all of this.  

Hope and pray for minimal casualties tonight.  :(
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 08:20:02 PM
Per WMC in Memphis ........ 15 to 20 student injured at Union University.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Jilly on February 05, 2008, 08:20:29 PM
Per WMC in Memphis ........ 15 to 20 student injured at Union University.

Hope those kids are OK.
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 08:20:52 PM
Lewis County possible tornado has a good hook on it
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: dapig on February 05, 2008, 08:21:31 PM
looks like the one in hohenwald will track towards Mt. Juliet. I pray it does not
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 08:21:49 PM
I a camped out in the bellevue area as well...will give live reports from my suv...
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:22:22 PM
WB TS

Thunder and flickering power here in Antioch
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 08:23:15 PM
Just renamed thread... the severe outbreak isn't just possible anymore.  :(
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: tornadofreek1 on February 05, 2008, 08:24:31 PM
HUGE tornado heading this way!! BE BACK SHORTLY I HOPE ANYWAYS
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 08:24:46 PM
This is going to be a lllllooooooooooooooonnnng nnight probably not for me but a lot of yall.More shear markers are popping with the Lewis County storm
Title: Re: Possible Severe Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 08:25:01 PM
Ron and Eric are sitting and crawling on I-40 waiting to be diverted off the interstate somewhere.  They've seen 5 ambulances from Jackson heading toward Memphis...so...I'm afraid we are going to hear some bad news before this is all over with.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 08:25:47 PM
HUGE tornado heading this way!! BE BACK SHORTLY I HOPE ANYWAYS

I was getting ready to post that RYAN HAD BETTER BE TAKING COVER!!!!!!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 08:26:45 PM
The track for the storm heading toward Davidson County keeps dropping further to the south.   The center of the storm is now zeroed in more on Brentwood town than Bellevue.  If this trend continues Franklin might end up being a target.

Also, just a suggestion, it would help cut down on the number of pages for this thread and make it easier to read if those with large avatars would delete them for the evening.

Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: msdawg911 on February 05, 2008, 08:27:14 PM
I am just sitting here waiting for the front to move through...all the stuff in West/Middle TN is just storms before the front, the main front is in AR
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 08:29:32 PM
Jake you've even got another set of cells breaking out ahead of the squall line again
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:30:38 PM
*notes the new thread name*


New TORN warn

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
829 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  HOUSTON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ERIN...
  NORTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN STEWART COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DOVER...

* UNTIL 900 PM CST

* AT 824 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF
  TENNESSEE RIDGE...OR ABOUT 11 MILES WEST OF ERIN...MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  CUMBERLAND CITY.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: tornadofreek1 on February 05, 2008, 08:31:13 PM
IM going to take cover guys be back shortly!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 08:31:20 PM
OK... just got caught up on this thread.

Now turning on the TV to tune into the wall to wall...
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:31:34 PM
SHOO, Ryan, dang!!  Get safe, hon!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:32:06 PM
armyfemme - hope you're duckin and coverin!!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: dapig on February 05, 2008, 08:32:18 PM
I wish this game would hurry up and end. I have a bad feeling about this.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 08:32:30 PM
Solid tornado warnings from KY to AL...
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 08:32:59 PM
Armyfemmme this is you, get to a safe place

Quote
weather.gov    
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code  
5 products issued by NWS for: Clarksville TN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
TNC083-085-125-161-060300-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0009.080206T0229Z-080206T0300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
829 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  HOUSTON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ERIN...
  NORTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN STEWART COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DOVER...

* UNTIL 900 PM CST

* AT 824 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF
  TENNESSEE RIDGE...OR ABOUT 11 MILES WEST OF ERIN...MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  CUMBERLAND CITY.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3628 8751 3618 8792 3627 8796 3628 8795
      3629 8796 3632 8797 3640 8801 3658 8764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 243DEG 50KT 3633 8782

$$

31
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 08:33:19 PM
Williamson,Maury,Davidson I would all be prepared to take cover you never how these things may move
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:33:45 PM
*pokes TNT to shut off the broadcast in his sig*
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 08:33:56 PM
A half a mile tornado on the grounf according to a storm spotter
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 08:34:28 PM
WKRN has storm spotter on TV confirming tornado on ground in Hickman County
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 08:34:35 PM
I shut it off, i have the scanner next to me..
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: armyfemme on February 05, 2008, 08:35:00 PM
sirenes going off here...taking shelter...
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Timothy on February 05, 2008, 08:35:37 PM
sirenes going off here...taking shelter...

Be safe!!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 08:35:54 PM
RON IS ON WKRN
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 08:36:07 PM
RON TALKING LIVE ON CHANNEL 2!!!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 08:37:26 PM
The Centerville tornado is INCREASING IN INTENSITY.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:37:50 PM
Our boy Ron is on the phone with WKRN.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: lyngo on February 05, 2008, 08:38:04 PM
Ok, just got back from purchasing a weather radio (about time).  Saw some wicked lightning out there.  Needless to say, I don't have good vibes about tonight....
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 08:38:42 PM
Take cover Susan....
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:38:47 PM
Quote
TORNADO WARNING
TNC043-081-101-119-187-060300-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0010.080206T0235Z-080206T0300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
835 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN DICKSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  HICKMAN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CENTERVILLE...
  NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  WEST CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 900 PM CST

* AT 832 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  CENTERVILLE AROUND 840 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 08:42:51 PM
The protected path of the tornado in Hickman is making a b-line toward me, according to WKRN.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 08:43:01 PM
This is crazy Im hereing thunder andd my lights are flickering frm the Lewis/Hickman county storm
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: lyngo on February 05, 2008, 08:44:03 PM
The protected path of the tornado in Hickman is making a b-line toward me, according to WKRN.

I'm worried about the trajectory of that storm as well.  I hope you've got a safe place to go.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:44:11 PM
Heading straight for Antioch.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: dapig on February 05, 2008, 08:45:32 PM
nothing like beeing in a Gym with 2300 people when this weather is going on.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 05, 2008, 08:47:08 PM
Way to go Ron! Im finally home.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 08:48:40 PM
servo, I am watching it very closely.  Right now it appears to be going North of me.  Hoping it stays that way!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:49:48 PM
Ron just called and is on his way back.  WKRN wants his video footage. :)
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 08:51:29 PM
My school cancelled our games tonight
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: ultra mag on February 05, 2008, 08:53:00 PM
Looks like we are about to get the second round here in west tn.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 08:54:21 PM
That squall line is massive.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 05, 2008, 08:54:33 PM
Still very pronounced hook on storm in central Hickman County. Tornado was already reported on the ground by a storm spotter as it crossed the county line into Hickman. Take Cover.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: dapig on February 05, 2008, 08:54:42 PM
I wish we had cancelled. Its seniornight so everything is behind we still have 3 min in the second quarter of the boys game. Ive got 9 officers here to help move people out of gym if we go into a warning. The good thing we have warning siren 200 yards from our gym
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:54:48 PM
[WeatherRocker] 8:53 pm: okay, that was just fin creepy
[WeatherRocker] 8:53 pm: i had a pepsi (can)
[WeatherRocker] 8:53 pm: opened it, took a good drink and set it down.
      [BaxterWX] 8:53 pm: pepsi one here
[WeatherRocker] 8:53 pm: NOT full anymore
[Weather]: Nashville_wx has left at 8:53 pm
[WeatherRocker] 8:53 pm: and suddenly, all the soda came up and OUT of the can
[jmundie] 8:53 pm: i'm getting pumped and its freaking out my wife
      [BaxterWX] 8:54 pm: lol
[WeatherRocker] 8:54 pm: so i dumped it, opened a new one and took big drink
[WeatherRocker] 8:54 pm: and it did it again.
[WeatherRocker] 8:54 pm: 0.o
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: StormNine on February 05, 2008, 08:55:00 PM
That one in Hickman County is wicked tornado reports i am concerened about Centerville. A lot of damge tonight that is the risk of when we get 70's in Feb I hope everybody comes out of this ok were under the gun we have a squall line to behind us.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 08:55:40 PM
Tornado in Hickman County.

It's following HWY 100.

I live right off HWY 100.

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: StormNine on February 05, 2008, 08:56:07 PM
Now looks like Franklin TN and maype even parts of Chetham and Davidson need to really watch.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: StormNine on February 05, 2008, 08:56:54 PM
I am concerned about all of you night tornadoes are very danerous some of my friends have been effected by this tornado too.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:57:51 PM
WKRN forecasting downtown Nashville to get this tornadic storm by 9:30.  GET SAFE
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 08:58:40 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
857 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN DICKSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 930 PM CST

* AT 854 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF FAIRVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  KINGSTON SPRINGS BY 905 PM CST...
  PEGRAM BY 910 PM CST...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 08:59:07 PM
If it keeps at its current intensity, they may have to issue a Tornado Emergency
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 05, 2008, 08:59:18 PM
THundersnow, look at the hook on it. I am for sure this tornado is still on the ground and moving your way. Those in Williamson and Davidson County need to take cover.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 09:00:13 PM
Duck and or cover

NOW
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Brandon on February 05, 2008, 09:00:37 PM
Also a ton of tornado warnings along the mississippi river headed into tn now.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: bellatrixr on February 05, 2008, 09:01:16 PM
37211 tornado siren going off, i believe.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mommy95 on February 05, 2008, 09:01:25 PM
it came through my way earlier,im at my parents in mcnairy county near the MS state line.good luck you guys near nashville and clarksville stay safe..i know we have some more to look forward to tnight thats supposed to be worse than the first ones so we've been told..we've had power outtage since it came through around 7 something thank goodness for pda's... once again be careful
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:01:39 PM
I have family all over this part of Davidson and adjacent parts of Cheatham County.  We're all under threat.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: msdawg911 on February 05, 2008, 09:02:57 PM
Also a ton of tornado warnings along the mississippi river headed into tn now.
Check out my radar image:

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:03:04 PM
The rain from the outer flank of the supercell is starting here.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 09:03:24 PM
bellevue, belle meade, charlotte park, west end, richland, green hills, hillwood areas take cover NOW
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 09:04:27 PM
Glad you are okay mommy95, thanks for checking in with us.

Hunker down you guys....
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:04:45 PM
I'll stay on as long as I can.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:06:04 PM
Gotta get pillows and stuff together and clear out the closet.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 09:06:28 PM
I'll be here as long as possible.

Thank goodness I got my shower in already ;D
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:07:36 PM
Thundering here.  I got my safe place, I think.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: bossfan2000 on February 05, 2008, 09:09:14 PM
what radar package are some of you using? I have tried GRLevel2 and weathertap. I like weathertap the best so far, but neither seem capable of producing some the radar images ya'll are uploading (my guess is some are from GRLevel2 analyst?)

i searched the forum for a thread about this, but couldnt find anything...
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: msdawg911 on February 05, 2008, 09:11:34 PM
what radar package are some of you using? I have tried GRLevel2 and weathertap. I like weathertap the best so far, but neither seem capable of producing some the radar images ya'll are uploading (my guess is some are from GRLevel2 analyst?)

i searched the forum for a thread about this, but couldnt find anything...
Yes, I am using GR2AE w/ AllisonHouse subscription. However, we should keep this thread talking about the severe wx tonight, simply because this thread is so big.  ;)
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:11:49 PM
I believe the below image to capture a debris echo just south of Fairview.

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:13:35 PM
Seeing hail here in Bellevue.  This may be one of my last posts before taking cover.

Prayers, please.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 09:14:26 PM
you got it TS, Godspeed
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:17:06 PM
Got my laptop on wireless in the closet.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 09:17:22 PM
Wicked winds in COlumbia
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mom3boys on February 05, 2008, 09:18:43 PM
My husband is at the Hockey game downtown, the sirens are going off and they will not let them leave the building.  Time to say some prayers!!!!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 09:19:00 PM
Prayers going out for all you in Bellevue, W Nashville, and Nashville.  Franklin and Fairview appear okay thus far, no reports from scanner. Nevermind, structure collapse, Coldwater Rd. 3 unaccounted for.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 09:19:56 PM
Houses hit in Fairview, Coldwater Rd. Major Damage.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 09:20:08 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
917 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  DAVIDSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NASHVILLE...
  NORTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 945 PM CST

* AT 915 PM CST...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
  PEGRAM...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  NASHVILLE AND OAK HILL BY 925 PM CST...
  LAKEWOOD AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GOODLETTSVILLE BY 935 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:20:32 PM
Still on wireless, I guess as long as power holds.  The hook appendange is coming directly toward me.  Should be here in minutes.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 09:22:08 PM
TS, honey, be safe!~!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:22:27 PM
I think I wish I had gone somewhere else.  I'm in a one story house.  But, in a closet next to the bathroom in the center of the house.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: msdawg911 on February 05, 2008, 09:22:48 PM
Report from WREG: David Dockery, President of Union Univ in Jackson, TN reports that all of the women's dorms have been completely destroyed, several men's dorms are severely damaged, and classes have been cancelled for 2 weeks.

TOR just issued for SW Shelby County...joy. :-[
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 09:23:16 PM
Another house collapse on S Harpeth Rd. People trapped.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:24:02 PM
S. Harpeth Rd is probably five miles from me.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 09:24:41 PM
: touch down on natchez trace
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: bossfan2000 on February 05, 2008, 09:24:49 PM
according to lisa on channel 2...confirmed touchdown at hwy 100 and natchez trace...
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: lilapsophobic on February 05, 2008, 09:25:07 PM
sirens are going off in Memphis again, warning out for west memphis
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 09:25:30 PM
TS, this is S Harpeth in Fairview. NOT Bellevue.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: shaq725 on February 05, 2008, 09:26:36 PM
Holding people at hockey game at the arena
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 09:29:57 PM
Williamson County reporting numerous house destroyed and several injured and trapped.  I have counted at least 6 homes thus far.  More expected.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Jilly on February 05, 2008, 09:32:28 PM
That was close.

Praying for everyone.

Tree down in our yard. Right in the SW corner of Cheatham County. Dickson Co is across the street and Williamson Co is 4 houses down.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 09:33:38 PM
Thanks for checking in and letting us know you are okay, jilly..

Prayers for everyone....
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 09:38:44 PM
Was just on the phone with my family in the Charlotte Park area... winds picked up majorly, lots of hail, forced them to take cover and wouldn't let them off the phone until i tracked it well to the east of the area.  Anyone else located around/near there?
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 09:39:00 PM
TS where are you????  
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Conservative1 on February 05, 2008, 09:39:25 PM
mild thunder in NE Wilson county. My neighbor is at work near Opryland, his new car is getting hailed on- golf ball sized. Prayers going up for those in the path of this...
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:41:04 PM
I'm OK.

Susan, if that's the S. Harpeth Road I'm talking about, it is over toward Fairview near where it was reported near Natchez Trace.  That's in probably less than five miles from me.  Bellevue is not far from Fairview.  

I can be at the Natchez Trace Parkway in about five minutes.



I *believe* I may have heard it.  There was a low rumbling for a couple of minutes.  Reports of touchdowns very near me.  When I'm sure it's safe, I may drive around.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 09:43:30 PM
Renee is under cover right now.  It's heading right over her.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:44:03 PM
This is the radar of the tornado as it was passing me.  Notice the "debris ball" to the south of the hook appendage.

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 09:45:09 PM
I know which S Harpeth you are talking about and that is not the same one.  This one is south of Fairview.  Do a search at maps.yahoo.com for 7355 Coldwater Road, Fairview, TN.  That is the address of one of the houses hit.  South Harpeth is just south of there.  The damage line in WM Co follows a path directly to natchez and Hwy 100.

The path was just West of Fernvale.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: VandyMachine on February 05, 2008, 09:45:58 PM
Did you guys see the Newschannel5 Sky cam video? You couldn't see a funnel, but that was amazing!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:46:09 PM
OK.  Well, I'm VERY close to Natchez Trace and HWY 100.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 09:46:18 PM
That is incredible, TS, so glad you are safe!!....The squall line Tornado Warnings are crossing into Memphis now...but there is another line of t-storms at Jackson and southward as well!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 09:47:05 PM
I'm going out for a little while to see what I can see.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 09:47:25 PM
btw, TS, so glad your okay!!!!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 09:47:40 PM
Did you guys see the Newschannel5 Sky cam video? You couldn't see a funnel, but that was amazing!

WKRN said they spotted a wall cloud
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 09:54:19 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0171.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0939 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 40...
   
   VALID 060339Z - 060515Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 40 CONTINUES.
   
   AN ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED SOUTH OF CURRENT WW SOON.
   
   FORCING SUPPORTING ONGOING CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...NEAR/
   NORTHWEST OF NASHVILLE...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF MIDDLE
   TENNESSEE BY 04-05Z.  BUT...SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL
   UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE ADVANCES THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR
   DURING THE 06-08Z TIME FRAME.  THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE...BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUING TORNADO
   POTENTIAL...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM/ MOIST AND
   POTENTIALLY BUOYANT.
   
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 09:54:41 PM
Any news from Ron and Eric???
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 09:56:53 PM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0170.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0919 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IND...KY...OH
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39...
   
   VALID 060319Z - 060445Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 39 CONTINUES.
   
   ADDITIONAL WWS MAY BE NEEDED EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
   TONIGHT.
   
   AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG HIGH
   LEVEL JET ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE
   VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
   LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.  INTENSE LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY IS ADVANCING
   AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL WAVE...ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING /60-70
   KT/ SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CORE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
   NORTHEAST OF WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN
   03-06Z.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
   WITH THE SQUALL LINE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LOUISVILLE AND
   CINCINNATI METROPOLITAN AREAS. 
   
   EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT TORNADOES WITHIN LINE...BUT THE
   CLUSTER OF MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER
   REGIME...EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET CORE...APPEARS LIKELY
   TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN INTO THE FRANKFORT/LEXINGTON
   AREAS.  AND...CONTINUED WARMING/MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO THE BLUE GRASS IS EXPECTED TO
   MAINTAIN A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
   
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: David on February 05, 2008, 09:57:22 PM
They are on there way home . I talked to him about an hour ago .
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: ultra mag on February 05, 2008, 10:05:32 PM
Sirens going off again here in crockett county going to the safe room be back on in a few.Prayers please
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: onthelake on February 05, 2008, 10:06:31 PM
Let's pray for the trapped students at Union University and everyone else affected/ hurt.

The hook went right over our head here at Saundersville. I am located about a half mile from the nexrad and there was also no wind or rain.

~On The Lake
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 10:10:07 PM
7 confirmed deaths in AR
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 10:10:34 PM
There is major damage in western Williamson Co.  Pinewood, Fernvale area.  Multiple houses damaged and destroyed.  People trapped. Much of the emergency personnel are unable to reach the sites due to downed trees.  They are calling for help from Brentwood.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 10:13:20 PM
Hardin county has dozens of houses damaged, churches and a school. 

Hickman county schools closed tomorrow.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 10:15:22 PM
Bet Williamson County schools will be closed also.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: VandyMachine on February 05, 2008, 10:15:33 PM
Rumors of two deaths close to Jackson. Heard that they weren't at Union though.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: armyfemme on February 05, 2008, 10:19:54 PM
...clearly, Cate handles storms better than I do...

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 10:20:48 PM
AWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW :) :) :)
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 10:22:37 PM
...clearly, Cate handles storms better than I do...

Sweet pic!!!  All my "boys" are about asleep here in the living room as I try and stay awake...not taking my normal meds that would take me to sandman land... ;)
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 10:23:00 PM
i am in bellevue also just off mccrory...headed to hwy 100.  saw an unbelievable funnel in the lightning.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 10:25:22 PM
The wind is REALLY kicking up ....Hubby had to go out and take our flag down and my wreath off the door.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: bellatrixr on February 05, 2008, 10:26:26 PM
anyone have an image of the wall cloud? I've missed it on chan 2, 4 & 5!

winds picked up here in 37211. odd.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: VandyMachine on February 05, 2008, 10:27:57 PM
Got it on my dvr, would take some time to get it off of there.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: bellatrixr on February 05, 2008, 10:28:31 PM
Got it on my dvr, would take some time to get it off of there.

don't worry about it, then. i'll keep looking. thanks tho.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: mommy95 on February 05, 2008, 10:29:29 PM

Thanks servocrow,
pray that everyone's safe tonight,trying to find out whats going on with this next wave. In Ramer, there's news that alot of trees are down, the winds/cell messed up the roof of the school, Im not sure about eastview where it was confirmed to have touched down.

Thanks guys for the information you all have provided and the awareness, glad I found this site.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 10:33:38 PM
what an amazing night.  it isnt going to be pretty come morning. im on my mobile pc, so hard to type and rive.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 10:34:49 PM
Wm. Co. has now requested an additional search and rescue crew from Davidson Co.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 10:35:31 PM
Gas explosion in Gallatin.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 10:35:43 PM
trying to get to fairview, but it is shut down. scanner says pretty serious.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Conservative1 on February 05, 2008, 10:37:11 PM
Channel 2 reporting a natural gas pumping station in Castalian Springs (between Gallatin and Hartsville off Hwy 25) has caught fire. I'm 5 miles away, but see no benefit in going up there. Must have been a hard hit up that way in eastern Sumner county.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 10:39:27 PM
Downed aircraft on HWY 231 on Wilson/Trousdale county line.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 10:41:48 PM
New TOR wrn for Carroll county.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1039 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CST

* AT 1039 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUENA
  VISTA...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF HUNTINGDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  HOLLOW ROCK AND BRUCETON.

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 10:43:00 PM
Channel 2 reporting a natural gas pumping station in Castalian Springs (between Gallatin and Hartsville off Hwy 25) has caught fire. I'm 5 miles away, but see no benefit in going up there. Must have been a hard hit up that way in eastern Sumner county.

All emergency management personnel are telling people to stay off the roads if they don't need to be there.  I know everyone wants to check stuff out....BUT....this is one of those times where people like us can be a hindrance, so it's a good idea you stay put. :)
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: sbradley1979 on February 05, 2008, 10:44:03 PM
What are everyone's thoughts on the next two lines coming through.  It seems to have weakened, but reading the posts from the weather service, they are still worried.  What do you all think? 
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: onthelake on February 05, 2008, 10:45:15 PM
Rocket,

What kind of aircraft is downed?
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 10:46:23 PM
Rocket,

What kind of aircraft is downed?
Don't know yet.  The reports are still coming in.  I'll post as soon as I know more.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 10:47:28 PM
on the lake, no further info available yet.

servo, absolutely, Wm. Co. emergency personnel have had a lot of chatter concern lookers AND news crews trying to sneak in the hit area.  shame on them
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 10:49:19 PM
I just came in from driving around between Bellevue and Fairview.  I cross the damage path twice, I believe.  Trees were down on Natchez Trace Parkway with debris all over the place.  I had to drive around off the side of the road around the downed trees.

Then, I went up McCrory Lane (Clarence, we may have passed each other, lol).  I turned around up there because there were power lines down that were being worked on.

Along the way, I drove down HWY 96 near Fernvale (where Susan referred to) and turned up Natchez Trace.  I passed emergency vehicles with sirens on in a hurry.  One vehicle was shining a light up into the woods as he was driving down the road slowly.  So, I may have been very near where something had happened.  But, it was dark, and I couldn't see much.

Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 10:50:03 PM
What are everyone's thoughts on the next two lines coming through.  It seems to have weakened, but reading the posts from the weather service, they are still worried.  What do you all think? 

There are potential supercells in the first line, not as strong as what came through earlier.  This line is producing tornado warnings.  The second line is associate with the front and will contain the wind field/severe t-storm warnings and some widespread wind damage....

It ain't over yet.... :-\
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 10:51:06 PM
Amazingly, the tornado that came through Nashville, I first started watching it at the Tennessee -  Mississippi state line is still on the ground in southern KY.  What a night!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 10:51:34 PM
TOR wrn

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1049 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  EAST CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CST

* AT 1049 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  SARDIS...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HENDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 100 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  REAGAN AND DECATURVILLE.

.IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 10:53:01 PM
servo, absolutely, Wm. Co. emergency personnel have had a lot of chatter concern lookers AND news crews trying to sneak in the hit area.  shame on them


*Puts on Mombie hat for a moment*  EVERYONE GET IN DA HOUSE AND STAY INSIDE!!!!!  IT'S BAD ENOUGH TWO OF OUR WAYWARD YOUTH ARE STILL OUT ON THE ROADS.....

DON'T MAKE ME COME IN THERE!!!!

*Removes Mombie hat, slips back into Servo*


Whew.....
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 10:53:15 PM
on the lake, no further info available yet.

servo, absolutely, Wm. Co. emergency personnel have had a lot of chatter concern lookers AND news crews trying to sneak in the hit area.  shame on them


 :-\

Well, now I feel kinda bad.  But, I didn't drive into any areas where major damage had occurred and shouldn't have impeded any emergency crews at all.  I was mainly curious about what things looked like near me.  I wouldn't think of driving to areas that took a major hit at this point.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 10:54:24 PM
thunder we probably did pass each other.  i saw the same stuff u did. i had a great view of the wall cloud and funnel as it went over. amazing to say the least!!!!! Wow
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 10:54:37 PM
Speaking of our prodigal sons, where are they??
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 10:55:01 PM
Newschannel 5 has film of Union University...Crew on site
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: sbradley1979 on February 05, 2008, 10:55:17 PM
Again with the Channel 5 video...  Did anyone see the huge crain?  I think the wind was spinning it around.  That was right before they picked up on the wall cloud.  It was pretty amazing...Then Lelan said that Charlie was going outside to look.  All I could think was that boy is gonna be blown away!  
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 10:56:41 PM
Poor Charlie Neese.... ;)
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: sbradley1979 on February 05, 2008, 10:57:02 PM
Also, I just noticed that the warnings from the first wave have now switched over to tornado warnings.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 10:58:58 PM
Just to let everyone know we are back. Eric has some incredible footage to take a look at. Incredible events down there today and the pace was just phenomenally fast.

Thanks to WxRocker, Servo, and TS for helping us get around the storms when we couldn't hit a wifi spot.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 10:59:15 PM
Yeah, I think these will affect everyone else who didn't get them before..


ummm......like me.. :-\
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 10:59:50 PM
Holy cow.  Look at the line of shear markers.



[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 11:00:23 PM
YAY!!  They're back!!!  Glad you guys are home safe!!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: sbradley1979 on February 05, 2008, 11:00:40 PM
I'm with you...  I don't know though, I'm in Robertson County (Springfield) so I don't know if it will move that far northeast.  At least the first one.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 11:00:48 PM
Just to let everyone know we are back. Eric has some incredible footage to take a look at. Incredible events down there today and the pace was just phenomenally fast.

Thanks to WxRocker, Servo, and TS for helping us get around the storms when we couldn't hit a wifi spot.
Oh thank goodness.

You're welcome... though I think I may have been more a pain in the rumpus than anything.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: onthelake on February 05, 2008, 11:00:54 PM
Welcome back gang! Glad you had a sucessful run out there. Can't wait to see some of your footage!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 11:01:01 PM
:-\

Well, now I feel kinda bad.  But, I didn't drive into any areas where major damage had occurred and shouldn't have impeded any emergency crews at all.  I was mainly curious about what things looked like near me.  I wouldn't think of driving to areas that took a major hit at this point.

TS, it doesn't sound like you went south of 96 and that is where the major damage.  

FYI, Wm. Co. called the Red Cross to set up a shelter for those that have had their home damaged.  Red Cross responded they would not do so until after the squall line passed.  Wm. Co. emergency personnel were TICKED!

And yea for Davidson Co., they are sending additional fire trucks and rescue dogs.  Very much stepping up to help.

Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Stevo on February 05, 2008, 11:02:38 PM
Welcome back Folks!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 11:03:26 PM
I think that same general area off HWY 96 took a hit in 2003, when a tornado crossed right over 96.  A house was completely destroyed toward the Leipers Fork area during the May 2003 outbreaks.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 11:06:09 PM
TS, that tornado went within a mile of our old house, bad stuff too.  Tonights tonado had to have crossed the same path but this storm took more of a NNE track, while the other one was almost due east.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 11:08:59 PM
dang, its hot and steamy here, temp still shows 69.

are ya'll sick of me yet    ;D
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: sbradley1979 on February 05, 2008, 11:10:03 PM
I was just thinking, man it's still warm out there.  70.2 with a dew point of 65 in the Springfield/Greenbrier area.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 11:10:35 PM
I do have to admit... that one scared me...

...unlike anything in quite some time.

When I saw that debris echo on radar coming right at this area, it's hard to describe the feeling.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 11:11:26 PM
dang, its hot and steamy here, temp still shows 69.

are ya'll sick of me yet    ;D

hee hee...It's a party!  Very warm by me too...but my humidifier just kicked on, 'bout scared the poopie out of me... :o
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 11:12:09 PM
It's awful hot here :(
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 11:12:55 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1110 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  HOUSTON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ERIN...
  NORTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WAVERLY...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CST

* AT 1108 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF
  WAVERLY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE...
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAVERLY BY 1115 PM CST...
  7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TENNESSEE RIDGE BY 1130 PM CST...
  ERIN BY 1135 PM CST...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 11:13:52 PM
3 deaths reported in W KY
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 11:14:54 PM
I do have to admit... that one scared me...

...unlike anything in quite some time.

When I saw that debris echo on radar coming right at this area, it's hard to describe the feeling.

There's nothing like those "sounds"...or "sights"...I was like when we had that round of severe weather April 2-3 2006 when west TN got hit so hard.  We had a tornado warning in the wee hours that night....hail....and that ....sound...But the funnel likely never dropped from the sky, but I "knew" the sound... ((SHIVER))
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Clarence on February 05, 2008, 11:15:29 PM
i am with you thundersnow.  still in awe.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 11:15:47 PM
omg - 5 people dead in Memphis :(
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 11:18:03 PM
Our temp hasn't changed since this afternoon...I wouldn't be surprised if the temps have risen, that's what makes this system so dangerous.  The nighttime cooling will not come or lessen this system
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 11:18:11 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1115 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CST

* AT 1112 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 24 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF LOBELVILLE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES EAST OF LEXINGTON...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  LOBELVILLE BY 1140 PM CST...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 11:20:32 PM
14 fatalities thus far.

:(
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 11:21:16 PM
I may be off base, but I'm thinking when the dust settles, and we're able to get a better idea of what's happened...

This may go down as one of the worst, most widespread events we've seen in this area in quite some time... maybe even topping 2006, 2003, and 1998.

That will have to be assessed in due time though.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 11:21:26 PM
maybe it's just me, but it looks like the same areas along I40 are going to be under the gun again, then once again later..
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 11:22:32 PM
I may be off base, but I'm thinking when the dust settles, and we're able to get a better idea of what's happened...

This may go down as one of the worst, most widespread events we've seen in this area in quite some time... maybe even topping 2006, 2003, and 1998.

That will have to be assessed in due time though.
I don't think you're that far off base.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2008, 11:23:33 PM
Newschannel 5 just reported that the AP is saying 5 dead and 50 injured, just in TN alone.

I'm afraid we're only going to see both numbers rise.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 11:26:49 PM
I'm afraid you are right, TS.  I think the amazing thing has been just the LENGTH OF THE TRACK of these supercells...so...do they count as separate instances each time they are spotted for each town?

Trousdale County Gas Pipeline/explosion ???? 30 ambulances sent to that area!!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 11:28:00 PM
wow, look at that... the frontal line is about to smash into the smaller line that's throwing the tor warns in western tn...
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: WXRocker on February 05, 2008, 11:28:21 PM
Gallatin area/Trousdale county - 30 ambulances.  Holy heebies.

:( :( :(
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: sbradley1979 on February 05, 2008, 11:29:49 PM
wow, look at that... the frontal line is about to smash into the smaller line that's throwing the tor warns in western tn...

What will that do? 
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 11:30:08 PM
The storms firing in Northern Mississippi are on track to hit Fairview and western Davidson County again.  
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 11:33:42 PM
Dang, has anyone else noticed the line of tornadoes in KY?
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 11:35:29 PM
What will that do? 

Not really sure, i just thought  it was neat.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: onthelake on February 05, 2008, 11:36:26 PM
Dang, has anyone else noticed the line of tornadoes in KY?
I was looking at them a few moments ago. I am in disbelief at how late and widespread this is going on.

Is everyone else staying up for the line to come through?

I am going to walk down to my dock to see if I can see the glow from the fire. Be back soon.

~On The Lake
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: sbradley1979 on February 05, 2008, 11:37:39 PM
Oh...I do too, I just didn't know if that would intensify the line.  I'm the amatuer and my thinking is 1 bad storm plus 1 bad storm equals 1 bad mamma jamma...
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 05, 2008, 11:38:02 PM
I was looking at them a few moments ago. I am in disbelief at how late and widespread this is going on.

Is everyone else staying up for the line to come through?

I am going to walk down to my dock to see if I can see the glow from the fire. Be back soon.

~On The Lake

I bet it looks similar to your profile pic :P

I'll be up until it passes through this area.  Can't sleep during severe wx, get too excited.

be back in a few though, our cap finally busted, and i need to get a smoke in before it becomes inclement to do so.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 11:38:30 PM
FWIW, I used to live very near that gas pipeline. They had to send us postcards about it to tell us such a large pipeline was so close.

That is going to be a huge disaster. Unbelievable day that I will not forget.

BTW, thought I'd note that we ended up in a real bad spot near Bartlett. Definitely in a bad spot. I think we narrowly got out of the danger zone on that one. We did make it back east of it and that's what Eric caught on video as it moved toward Jackson.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 05, 2008, 11:41:25 PM
Ron, glad you and Eric amde it home safely.  When do you think we will be able to view your pictures?
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 05, 2008, 11:44:03 PM
FWIW, I used to live very near that gas pipeline. They had to send us postcards about it to tell us such a large pipeline was so close.

That is going to be a huge disaster. Unbelievable day that I will not forget.

BTW, thought I'd note that we ended up in a real bad spot near Bartlett. Definitely in a bad spot. I think we narrowly got out of the danger zone on that one. We did make it back east of it and that's what Eric caught on video as it moved toward Jackson.

I know we are anxious to see the pics.  Everyone here at home was wanting updates on you guys as well...YOU ALL were celebrities..and imagine how much more so when your name popped up on WKRN!!

Glad you guys are home...and safe...

Crap, I'm up WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY past my bedtime....yawn.....
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 11:46:05 PM
Ron, glad you and Eric amde it home safely.  When do you think we will be able to view your pictures?

Thanks all. Eric has the pics and vid. I'm sure he'll post as soon as he can. I think he's going to be too tired tonight to do it. I was up for making the drive to News2 studio and getting it to them, but alas, I was with sleepyhead.  ;D

Eric, please go burn that atlas you bought. LOL
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: onthelake on February 05, 2008, 11:48:10 PM
Down at the dock and the roof is still in one piece. I am watching a barge go up stream. Just pondering what they did down in southwest TN when all the storms were breaking out. I bet they had some great views.

Ron> glad y'all got out of the way of that twister in time.

Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: justinmundie on February 05, 2008, 11:48:45 PM
Ron,

I'm pretty sure we lucked out here in East Nashville. We were in the basement when the rotation was going over... it got completely silent, then all the air rushed out of the foundation vents and we heard what sounded like strong wind, but it wasn't a gust, all the trees started swirling, then it was over. I went outside and saw the wall cloud to the west.

Apparently it touched down again to the east of us.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 05, 2008, 11:58:51 PM
jmundie, nashville was spared because the SC cycled at just the right time. Unfortunately the towns of Fairview and Castalian Springs weren't so lucky.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 06, 2008, 12:00:12 AM
Impressive SC approaching Dickson. Currently TOR warned.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 06, 2008, 12:03:12 AM
This just goes to show you how a strong cap can help, or hurt an outbreak when everything is pointing towards tornadic activity...

The cap over MS didn't hold, and look what happened.

The cap over AL held, and here's the resulting HWO:

Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1158 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-061100-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1158 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT...

A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...IN THE HUNTSVILLE AREA BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM. THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

EDIT: don't guess the cap really affects YOU ... it affects the storm..  man i'm tired.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 06, 2008, 12:05:03 AM
Quote
O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-080206T0615Z/
HICKMAN TN-HUMPHREYS TN-
1158 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS AND NORTHWESTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES...

AT 1155 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED AT BUCKSNORT ON INTERSTATE
40...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 06, 2008, 12:06:26 AM
I40 has been Tornado Alley today
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 06, 2008, 12:06:48 AM
Nashville temp is 72 with a dewpoint of 61.

Wondering whether this squall line is going to increase in intensity as it approaches.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on February 06, 2008, 12:08:20 AM
Well folks its been a wild day to say the least.  I was at work in Memphis when the storms hit, as a matter of fact I was working right across the street from the Memphis Aiport.  I work for FedEx and we had to evacuate our 3rd floor office area and go to the ground floor of our building as the tornado warned storms approached our area.  Fortunately the building we work in has an area that is basically 20 feet under ground so I was never in any real danger.  However once I left work around 11 pm after the trailing edge of the cold front and line of storms moved through what I saw on my way home wa shocking.  I'm afraid things will be even worse in the morning in daylight. 

My wife and kids went to my dads house since I had to go to work and rode the storms out there.  He has a steel reinforced room in a closet of his house which helped ease my mind that they would be pretty safe in the event they needed to take shelter.  They only had to take shelter once for a tornado warned storm that was tracking fairly close to them.  However it appears that storm produced nothing to speak of in Marshall County Mississippi. 

All in all I was blessed today my the good Lord, but my heart and prayers go out to the folks who suffered losses today especially those that lost their lives.

If you want pics, videos, or new stories of today event in and around Memphis WMC-TV or WREG-TV out of Memphis should have plenty of stuff for you to view.  There were some amazing videos of several of the tornadoes that moved the the Memphis area.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 06, 2008, 12:09:41 AM
I40 has been Tornado Alley today

Yes it has.  When I made my initial forecast, I thought of actually putting middle tn under my high risk notation, but didn't think things would get this bad around that area..  although my forecast seemed to verify almost 100% (outlined high risk areas, storm mode, cloud cover), I never anticipated the wild speedup in the system, and from what I can tell, neither did the NAM or the GFS.  Had this been apparent on the models, it's possible middle TN would have been included in the SPCs high risk.

Look out for that storm headed up I40.  I think they're mad at Ron for chasing them around.. :P
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 06, 2008, 12:12:06 AM
Rotation headed toward BURNS. Take cover near Burns.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 06, 2008, 12:12:34 AM
MWG!!!!  Thanks for checking in!  I heard on WMC's stream that a FedEx hangar was destroyed as well.  Glad you and your family is safe and sound...and yes I share your fears about what the light of day will hold...

Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 06, 2008, 12:14:48 AM
Susan, Lisa P. mentioned that some of the cells were strengthening.  I don't think there is anything to inhibit the growth.

BTW, look at the line in KY.  It looks like it crossed the entire state and is moving south :o
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Jilly on February 06, 2008, 12:15:51 AM
Rotation headed toward BURNS. Take cover near Burns.

We're in a basement closet. I'm surprised the wireless is good in here.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 06, 2008, 12:17:38 AM
Morbid, I know, but I would love to rent a helicopter and fly the area tomorrow.

I am closely watching the line of storms coming up from Maury County.  Their track goes directly over my house.  I really don't want to wake the babies up.  :'(

WKRN reports 18 dead in TN.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 06, 2008, 12:17:52 AM
Susan, Lisa P. mentioned that some of the cells were strengthening.  I don't think there is anything to inhibit the growth.

BTW, look at the line in KY.  It looks like it crossed the entire state and is moving south :o

It wasn't done yet.. pulling a U turn for more.  :P
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2008, 12:18:02 AM
Total death toll now: 18.

8 in TN alone.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 06, 2008, 12:18:37 AM
New cells now popping just inside TN line rapidly intensifying and making a beeline for Nashville Metro area. Keep an eye on these!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 06, 2008, 12:19:53 AM
Almost certainly a tornado on the ground just SW of Burns about to head into Burns.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2008, 12:20:59 AM
Burns... and then, White Bluff, a more populated town.

[attachment deleted by admin to free space]
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2008, 12:24:32 AM
This storm should hopefully miss my parents' house just to their north.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on February 06, 2008, 12:30:29 AM
So what is the
guess" on when the squall line will go through Franklin TN area?
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2008, 12:34:30 AM
I would guess in one to two hours.  By 2:00-2:30 AM, I think the back edge will have passed the Nashville-Franklin corridor.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2008, 12:39:36 AM
Total death toll just reported at 22.

10 in TN.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 06, 2008, 12:42:23 AM
That's five more than the last news alert I got from Yahoo!

Also....I am pretty sure that I am going to have to buy a new radio.  Otherwise, I would be sleeping...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 06, 2008, 12:45:39 AM
crap, that line up from Maury County is training right over my house.  I don't wanna go to the basement.  Raining very hard now. Temp is still 69.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on February 06, 2008, 12:47:23 AM
I second the new wx radio. Mine won't pick up in the bedroom - only the kitchen.  

It looks like after the storm in perry county gets here that may be it for us in Franklin.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 06, 2008, 12:48:27 AM
I can guarantee you the death toll will go up. There are lots of areas that they haven't even gotten to yet.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Jimbo from Mempho on February 06, 2008, 12:49:51 AM
Morbid, I know, but I would love to rent a helicopter and fly the area tomorrow.


Susan WMC TV out of Memphis will have their helicopter up early tomorrow surveying the damage.  Just check back to their website and I'm sure at some point tomorrow they will have a video up of the damage around the Memphis and Jackson Tn area.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Chelsea in Tn on February 06, 2008, 12:50:17 AM
I can guarantee you the death toll will go up. There are lots of areas that they haven't even gotten to yet.

Sad but true......
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: BaxterWX on February 06, 2008, 12:50:25 AM
Watch ABC news in the AM - they are doing a  story on Union University in Jackson, TN. They contacted me thru my blog, and I put them in touch with a student.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 06, 2008, 12:54:24 AM
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1247 AM CST WED FEB 6 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 130 AM CST

* AT 1242 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GOODLETTSVILLE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF ASHLAND
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2008, 01:05:56 AM
I'm reading other things here and there, and I have a sinking feeling that we've only scratched the surface on how bad this is.

There are apparently a number of missing in addition to the confirmed deaths.

Several deaths are associated with the explosion in Hartsville alone.  And, I just read an opinion that this may have been the effect of a very violent tornado up that way... possibly F5 damage (but, that can only be determined from storm surveys, of course).

There are reports of houses blown away, leaving nothing but concrete slabs.

It's hard to assess what's accurate at this point though.  Hopefully, we'll learn more tomorrow.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 06, 2008, 01:13:37 AM
TS, any more reports on the downed plane?
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Stevo on February 06, 2008, 01:25:20 AM
Anyone notice more storms firing up back west? in MS & AR?
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: tornadofreek1 on February 06, 2008, 01:26:11 AM
Well after being under a tornado warning 5+ times tonight, the worst is over and left a destruction zone in its wake. Massive damage all over the southern part of the county. I have been out helping clear trees and talk with people that have lost everything. Still having a hard time getting to the hardest hit area, Atena and Brushy. A friends called me and told me he was ok but his community of Brushy is leveled almost. VERY VERY scary stuff and very sad also.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Stevo on February 06, 2008, 01:27:37 AM
Glad to hear you are ok Ryan!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Conservative1 on February 06, 2008, 01:28:35 AM
I live within 1/2 mile of the Wilson/Trousdale county line where they initially suspected that plane had gone down. The fire looked like a plane crash, but it turned out to be the Columbia Gulf gas main located 10 miles north-northeast of me. I'm pretty sure there was no plane crash. I think whoever called it in mistook the gas main break for a plane crash.
 It sure reminded me of a plane crash when I saw the flames lighting up the sky.
 
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 06, 2008, 01:30:22 AM
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
127 AM CST WED FEB 6 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
WESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 200 AM CST

* AT 121 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER
SOUTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTY...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL WESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY AT 140 AM CST
RURAL NORTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY AT 150 AM CST
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 06, 2008, 01:30:59 AM
Ryan, I'm afraid we're going to hear more stories just like your friend's by the time tomorrow gets here. :'(
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: tornadofreek1 on February 06, 2008, 01:34:08 AM
Yeah, I'm afraid so.. The light of the morning will tell all and its not going to be very pretty. Wow, what a night.. I pray that everyone is ok!
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: tornadofreek1 on February 06, 2008, 01:37:30 AM
Looks like we have some heavy rain heading up into the area from Mississippi now. And looks like some cells are popping over Arkansas too, not looking severe but tonight is relentless..
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 06, 2008, 01:41:45 AM
I still haven't had my fun yet either  :-\

it's 1:40 here, 70/62 degrees (it dropped 2 degrees since 5pm...wow. dewpt stayed the same) and winds S 18 G 25 MPH

our cap broke about 45 minutes or so ago (i was mistaken earlier).  now we have storms firing, and the line is encroaching. 

yay.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2008, 01:48:43 AM
TS, any more reports on the downed plane?

Haven't seen anything on that yet.


A big crash of thunder from the Williamson County cell just shook me awake.  :o

Franklin, take cover.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2008, 01:50:36 AM
I live within 1/2 mile of the Wilson/Trousdale county line where they initially suspected that plane had gone down. The fire looked like a plane crash, but it turned out to be the Columbia Gulf gas main located 10 miles north-northeast of me. I'm pretty sure there was no plane crash. I think whoever called it in mistook the gas main break for a plane crash.
 It sure reminded me of a plane crash when I saw the flames lighting up the sky.
 


Thanks.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: justinmundie on February 06, 2008, 01:54:45 AM
That storm is going much more north than east right now

Gonna miss franklin, headed towards brentwood/davidson county

Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: justinmundie on February 06, 2008, 01:55:11 AM
Good storm track Davis. Tornado Warning for southern davidson county
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2008, 01:58:29 AM
Macon County apparently hard hit... homes destroyed, fatalities.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Conservative1 on February 06, 2008, 02:02:54 AM
Macon County Sheriff Gammons confirming on WKRN at least 1 fatality outside Lafayette. Says there will probably be more. 25 - 30 brick homes leveled or half-leveled off 52W west of Lafayette. That Macon County /Trousdale County storm is probably going to prove to be a bad one.
 

 
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Susan on February 06, 2008, 02:03:38 AM
Just came up from the basement. WKRN had the rotation headed directly over my house. Fortunately, it headed more NNE. Everyone is tucked back in bed. Hope they get to stay there.

Servo, sorry, your time has come.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: justinmundie on February 06, 2008, 02:09:14 AM
I mean, it did cause a 400 foot tall fire. Never heard of a storm doing that before. Sounds like a B movie plot line.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Thundersnow on February 06, 2008, 02:26:08 AM
Things are finally calming down from this nightmare of an outbreak...

Now, it's time for our friends and neighbors to begin picking up the pieces.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: onthelake on February 06, 2008, 02:28:41 AM
Well all, the time has finally come for me to hit the sack. I must say that I am and also I am not looking forto seeing the wrath that is called the night of Feb.5th.....

Good night all!

~On The Lake
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: Reneezelle on February 06, 2008, 02:32:38 AM
Ten mins ago saw funnel dipping from sky. Priest Lake Stewarts Ferry. Followed by large wall cloud. Definately something right when the Warning was for Donelson, Airport. Very small. Winds increased to maybe 30-35 mph.
   Going to back to bed. Think its all over. talk tommorow. Not a middle of the night person.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: toastido on February 06, 2008, 04:10:29 AM
wow I really dodged the bullet there....  tornado on the ground swept less than a mile away...  :o :o

EDIT:

Here are the LSRs as of 4:32am CDT in huntsville regarding the tornado i was hiding from :P  (Ron, I ALMOST got to chase anyway!)

Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
411 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     TORNADO          S MOULTON               34.48N 87.28W
02/06/2008                   LAWRENCE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO ON GROUND ON HIGHWAY 36 SOUTH OF MOULTON POSSIBLY
            TRAPPING PEDESTRIANS.

0320 AM     TORNADO          6 SE MOULTON            34.42N 87.21W
02/06/2008                   LAWRENCE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 183 IN THE NORTHERN ALDRIDGE
            GROVE AREA.

0320 AM     TORNADO          12 E MOULTON            34.48N 87.07W
02/06/2008                   MORGAN             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL HOMES DAMAGED IN THE FIVE POINTS AREA.

0325 AM     TORNADO          8 SW DECATUR            34.49N 87.09W
02/06/2008                   MORGAN             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND IN CHAPEL HILL.

0330 AM     TORNADO          DECATUR                 34.57N 86.99W
02/06/2008                   MORGAN             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUD TAVERN FIRE DEPARTMENT DAMAGED WEST OF DECATUR

0335 AM     TORNADO          10 WNW HUNTSVILLE       34.79N 86.75W
02/06/2008                   MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND WEST OF MONROVIA

0342 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HUNTSVILLE              34.73N 86.59W
02/06/2008                   MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED AT INTERSECTION OF RESEARCH PARK
            AND HIGHWAY 53.

0347 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MADISON                 34.70N 86.75W
02/06/2008                   MADISON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED ON THE WEST END OF COUNTY LINE ROAD


0348 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MADISON                 34.70N 86.75W
02/06/2008                   MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED ON COUNTY LINE ROAD.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 06, 2008, 06:17:19 AM
Would you guys believe I passed out just before my Severe T-storm and Tornado Warning was issued?  Exhausted, to say the least.  So I give thanks to God for His protection.  I pray that the death toll goes no higher (currently 31). 

Today will be an "awe-filled" day, I believe.
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5
Post by: servocrow on February 06, 2008, 06:31:11 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080205_rpts.gif)

To view the list:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080205_rpts.html
Title: Re: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5, 2008
Post by: Ron_Jarrell on February 09, 2008, 09:08:25 PM
Topic split and locked for archival purposes.

Please continue discussing the tornado outbreak on the post storm discussion thread.