Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Nashville_Wx on June 10, 2021, 11:36:11 PM

Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Nashville_Wx on June 10, 2021, 11:36:11 PM
Bump, less than 6 months away from the season of cheer. **** the heat let winter be here.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Thundersnow on June 11, 2021, 01:46:00 PM
If you're going to bump this, might as well go ahead and start the 2021-2022 thread.

If we get a week at any point in the winter like we saw in mid-February, the rest of the winter can torch, and I'll be happy.

(I realize East TN didn't really get in on that mid-February series like the Middle and West did.)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on June 11, 2021, 02:34:52 PM
If you're going to bump this, might as well go ahead and start the 2021-2022 thread.

If we get a week at any point in the winter like we saw in mid-February, the rest of the winter can torch, and I'll be happy.

(I realize East TN didn't really get in on that mid-February series like the Middle and West did.)

NE TN had a good period in December and SE TN had a surprise ULL the previous winter.  Pretty much everyone got something the past two winters. 

The biggest problem for the Sierra Nevada range is going to involve making it to December without any towns or major resorts in ashes.  The energy available for fires over there is at record levels. I don't imagine it is any better really anywhere else in the West or Northern Plains.       
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on June 11, 2021, 03:12:06 PM
If you're going to bump this, might as well go ahead and start the 2021-2022 thread.

If we get a week at any point in the winter like we saw in mid-February, the rest of the winter can torch, and I'll be happy.

(I realize East TN didn't really get in on that mid-February series like the Middle and West did.)

I'll be getting more snow than all of you this year  >:D
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Thundersnow on June 11, 2021, 03:20:32 PM
I'll be getting more snow than all of you this year  >:D

(https://media.giphy.com/media/LSF3qyqwxhvnhUMoHv/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on June 11, 2021, 09:10:35 PM
Bump, less than 6 months away from the season of cheer. **** the heat let winter be here.

I'm ready. Skip July/August. Lets get on with it.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on June 20, 2021, 10:56:17 PM
Well, today was Summer Solstice. From here on out, until the first day of winter, days start to slowly get shorter. I can already imagine that first cool front...
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on June 21, 2021, 05:36:29 AM
Well, today was Summer Solstice. From here on out, until the first day of winter, days start to slowly get shorter. I can already imagine that first cool front...
yeah. It comes today later …. Nice little cool Down
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on June 21, 2021, 08:38:36 AM
I'm ready. Skip July/August. Lets get on with it.

Let me harvest my berries and then I'll jump aboard.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on June 22, 2021, 11:07:03 AM
It's kind of funny folks always ready to jump to another season no matter what it is. Enjoy the ride and enjoy them all.   ::guitar:: ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Thundersnow on June 22, 2021, 11:23:00 AM
Alright- I'm going to go ahead and chop off the last few posts into a new 21/22 thread.  ;)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on June 22, 2021, 03:40:12 PM
From an ENSO standpoint, this winter looks to be neutral.

It is important to know that Neutral winters only mean that El-Nino and La-Nina will not play a role in them (one could argue if they played a role in any winter since 2015-16 but that is another subject). 

Another thing to know is that Neutral Winters have not been that great since really the Mt. Pinatubo years. Taking out the Pinatubo years we have the following ENSO Neutral winters since 1985. If it wasn't for the neutral winters of the 60s and 70s plus that certain storm in 1992-93 then neutral winters would be widely known as generally being sucky for cold/snow   

1985-86
1989-90
1990-91 (borderline El-Nino)
1996-97
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06 (borderline La-Nina)
2012-13
2013-14
2016-17 (borderline La-Nina)
2019-20 (borderline El-Nino)

Of that list of our most recent 11 Neutral Non-Pinatubo driven ENSO winters, the only three good things that stick out are December 1989 (we won't talk about Jan-March 1990), the widespread White Christmas of 1990 (the only significant snow that winter by the way), and the solid coldness of 2013-14 (which was a really good winter for Southern and Eastern TN by the way).   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on June 23, 2021, 02:26:50 PM
This is not a forecasting post, but a resource for those who would like to view it. I came across this unintentionally.

18 Feb 2021https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/TN/snowfall/20210218 (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/TN/snowfall/20210218)

Specify the date you would like to view. This has archived 6 years of records.

Other dates of interest from the previous winter:

7 Feb https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/TN/snowfall/20210207 (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/TN/snowfall/20210207)

8 Jan https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/TN/snowfall/20210108 (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/TN/snowfall/20210108)

25 Dec https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/TN/snowfall/20201225 (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/TN/snowfall/20201225)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on June 23, 2021, 03:06:06 PM
From an ENSO standpoint, this winter looks to be neutral.

The June 17 report from NOAA is actually leaning toward a Nina.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on June 23, 2021, 04:48:00 PM
The June 17 report from NOAA is actually leaning toward a Nina.

I just saw the latest graphic and it is trending to a cool neutral/borderline weak La-Nina with a cluster around the -0.5C mark or around 2005-06 or 2016-17 levels.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Nashville_Wx on June 23, 2021, 10:54:38 PM
I just saw the latest graphic and it is trending to a cool neutral/borderline weak La-Nina with a cluster around the -0.5C mark or around 2005-06 or 2016-17 levels.

My forecast is The Nina, OH, the Pinta, OH, the santa maria, OH, I'll do you in the bottom while you're drinking Sangria. That is what I think trying to forecast winter 5 months out. But I understand its something we must do. But oh my
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on June 24, 2021, 07:20:17 AM
My forecast is The Nina, OH, the Pinta, OH, the santa maria, OH, I'll do you in the bottom while you're drinking Sangria. That is what I think trying to forecast winter 5 months out. But I understand its something we must do. But oh my

Ever since 2015-16 our winters seem to want to rebel against their forecast ENSO state anyway.  There may be some tendency to torch nationwide in the late fall/winter as that excessive above-average bubble in the West will have to move some time. Similar in how the drought/heat of TX/LA/OK and points west in 2011 expanded starting in 2011-12. 

Other than that who knows. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on June 24, 2021, 10:29:28 AM
Some signs of a Nina-leaning pattern in NOAA's forecast.

As you said, Stormnine, our past several winters have hardly been contingent on ENSO analogs.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t08.2c.gif)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on July 12, 2021, 01:53:44 PM
Now the models show a solid La-Nina at least the strength of last year.  A big change in the ENSO forecast as what was once a Neutral year now becomes a La-Nina.

With the mega-drought out west and all that heat energy, a strong Bermuda ridge, warm arctic, and possibly the Sunspots awakening this upcoming winter is looking quite 2011-12 ish.   

The early analogs are:
1999-00
2001-02
2005-06
2011-12
2016-17

Can we say yuck!!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on July 12, 2021, 01:59:55 PM
The good news is that the winters have largely done the opposite of what they were supposed to be by analogs since 2016-17.

The other good news is that we have that active subtropical belt that has been a part of our life during the winter months regardless of ENSO since the last super El-Nino.

With that being said we will need help from either a very strong -EPO and/or a strong -NAO or we will torch this entire continent this cool season.   
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on July 25, 2021, 05:07:16 PM
If enso state isn’t strong’ I think we should be past the “it’s a La Niña or El Niño, so one size fits all” mentality. Strength and placement of anomalies can make all of the difference. It’s way out there but we are getting close enough to say weak La Niña looks likely with a peak early winter. Anomaly placement looks like west vs east. One difference will be the developing negative QBO and the current negative PDO which has now flipped. That negative PDO probably means more La Niña years than El Niño. The Atlantic looks much colder than in years past, too. Lots to keep an eye on especially this early.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on July 25, 2021, 08:36:36 PM
If enso state isn’t strong’ I think we should be past the “it’s a La Niña or El Niño, so one size fits all” mentality. Strength and placement of anomalies can make all of the difference. It’s way out there but we are getting close enough to say weak La Niña looks likely with a peak early winter. Anomaly placement looks like west vs east. One difference will be the developing negative QBO and the current negative PDO which has now flipped. That negative PDO probably means more La Niña years than El Niño. The Atlantic looks much colder than in years past, too. Lots to keep an eye on especially this early.

Really we need a + or - 1.5C or greater for ENSO to really dominate the pattern as it did in years like 2015-16 or 2007-08.  This is especially true if another factor proves to be significant such as an unusually + or - NAO, an extended long MJO phase, etc.   


 


Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on July 26, 2021, 05:15:49 AM
Our problem has been a screwed up pacific , no matter the Enso…  that s if you like cold n snow.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on July 26, 2021, 09:15:30 AM
The good news is that the winters have largely done the opposite of what they were supposed to be by analogs since 2016-17.

The other good news is that we have that active subtropical belt that has been a part of our life during the winter months regardless of ENSO since the last super El-Nino.

With that being said we will need help from either a very strong -EPO and/or a strong -NAO or we will torch this entire continent this cool season.

Good discussion and I would agree. We seem to have decoupled from the usual enso implications on winter, at least to a decent degree.

I'm not as worried about a possible Nina on our winter chances as I wouldve been 10 to 15 years ago.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on July 26, 2021, 09:17:04 AM
Our problem has been a screwed up pacific , no matter the Enso…  that s if you like cold n snow.
You mean the same pacific the drove three winter storms within a week into our area last February?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on July 26, 2021, 10:20:30 AM
You mean the same pacific the drove three winter storms within a week into our area last February?
yeah pretty much … we just happen thread needle there  I am afraid …. Sometime s good have luck on your side .
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on July 26, 2021, 11:14:50 AM
Hey it's gonna snow guys, that's all I know!!!!!!  ::applause:: ::guitar:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 01, 2021, 12:02:37 PM
yeah pretty much … we just happen thread needle there  I am afraid …. Sometime s good have luck on your side .

150day range is showing a nice storm for East TN. Keep a eye out.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on August 01, 2021, 01:50:34 PM
150day range is showing a nice storm for East TN. Keep a eye out.

If models still have it at 100 days, I'll start to get excited, but 150 days...fool me once
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2021, 04:56:21 PM
If models still have it at 100 days, I'll start to get excited, but 150 days...fool me once

Accuweather's 90-day forecast is my go-to.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on August 01, 2021, 05:24:14 PM
If models still have it at 100 days, I'll start to get excited, but 150 days...fool me once

If it is within 70 days we need to fire up the thread and really break down the pattern. At what point do we need to empty the stores of bread, milk, toilet paper.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on August 01, 2021, 07:47:57 PM
If it is within 70 days we need to fire up the thread and really break down the pattern. At what point do we need to empty the stores of bread, milk, toilet paper.
empty store of bread and milk?  Think he is talking about a big severe weather outbreak …
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 01, 2021, 10:45:03 PM
empty store of bread and milk?  Think he is talking about a big severe weather outbreak …


Absolutely not. Tonight run shows more sleet than snow around Dec 2nd.... I may start stocking up as many have said once we getting close to 16 weeks out . Its been since I have been to the attic and I am ready for some of that sweet air.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on August 08, 2021, 07:05:25 AM
https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/VMooi1rlwZM

Larry Cosgrove posted some seasonal models for fall and winter.

The Euro isn't too horrible for us in December and January because we can run with +1 to +2 above-average anomalies.  It is when you get into the +4 or more that winter weather becomes very difficult to squeeze.

The CanSIPS after showing a cold November is a straight-up copy and paste of 2011-2012.     
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on August 15, 2021, 10:33:27 PM
Just a few months away from forecasting model fantasy land.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 16, 2021, 09:42:02 PM
Just a few months away from forecasting model fantasy land.  ::snowman::

Snowing in Italy :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on August 18, 2021, 12:28:40 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210818/d6fcd2f9bcace20f34a896446918f060.jpg)

Weatherbell Prelim Winter Forecast for temps and snowfall.

Their analogs are 2003-04, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2017-18, 2020-21.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on August 18, 2021, 01:21:39 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210818/d6fcd2f9bcace20f34a896446918f060.jpg)

Weatherbell Prelim Winter Forecast for temps and snowfall.

Their analogs are 2003-04, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2017-18, 2020-21.
also seeing 2011 2012 winter getting out out there a lot too…
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on August 18, 2021, 01:41:52 PM
To be honest I think there is an equal shot of having a winter like 2000-01, 2017-18, or last winter or having 2001-02/2011-12 repeat itself.

It all depends on whether we can get either a strong -EPO or we get lucky twice with a Greenland Block (-NAO/-AO combo).  If neither happens then we are likely looking at 2001-02 or 2011-12 on repeat with strong potential for 2022 to be a drought year.

The line between a decent to perhaps even good winter versus a dumpster fire could be quite thin.

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on August 18, 2021, 07:32:28 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210818/d6fcd2f9bcace20f34a896446918f060.jpg)

Weatherbell Prelim Winter Forecast for temps and snowfall.

Their analogs are 2003-04, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2017-18, 2020-21.

Hmmm. Predicting a wet winter for the Great Lakes region, I guess?

Surprised to see the chances for cold extend into the TN Valley for a resurgent Niña winter. WeatherBell is pretty legit, so I'll keep their take in mind.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on August 19, 2021, 01:28:41 PM
To be honest I think there is an equal shot of having a winter like 2000-01, 2017-18, or last winter or having 2001-02/2011-12 repeat itself.

It all depends on whether we can get either a strong -EPO or we get lucky twice with a Greenland Block (-NAO/-AO combo).  If neither happens then we are likely looking at 2001-02 or 2011-12 on repeat with strong potential for 2022 to be a drought year.

The line between a decent to perhaps even good winter versus a dumpster fire could be quite thin.
Looks like this is their rationale for leaving 2011-12 out:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210819/c58896a03729f35a87cb9aab992be530.jpg)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on August 23, 2021, 11:32:44 AM
The nino 3.4 region continues to cool even more. Looking more
N more at least good chance of moderate Nina this winter….
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on August 23, 2021, 01:31:18 PM
The nino 3.4 region continues to cool even more. Looking more
N more at least good chance of moderate Nina this winter….
Current forecast pretty solid for weak Niña on both IRC and CFS. What are you looking at to suggest otherwise?
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210823/88f5fb1a600f0e7bc569a0e7b715f6f6.jpg)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210823/35f4b3fb0445ac93c602c632c69b112f.jpg)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on August 24, 2021, 07:55:53 AM
I would say the latest ENSO forecasts have actually trended towards La-Nina not being that much of a factor compared to a month or two ago (shorter-lived and a peak of -0.6/-0.7C versus lasting through the first part of spring and peaking around -1.2/-1.3C) and some models even show a quick rise to neutral by the end of meteorological winter.  There is a fairly big difference climo-wise between the two situations. Heck by next summer we may be flirting with an El-Nino.   

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on September 01, 2021, 04:25:14 PM
Now that it's September, we're on the home stretch for long-range winter forecasts.  ::snowman::

It won't be too long before winter storms appear in the GFS runs.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on September 01, 2021, 04:46:01 PM
Don’t look at the Cfsv2 model if you want cold winter …
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on September 01, 2021, 06:04:29 PM
Winter 2021-22 should be a weak to perhaps low end moderate La Nina- AND with a moderately strong PDO. The PDO is now in a cold phase which is quite different than the last 20 years, although it can flip temporarily. Most mets now believe we have made the change to negative not unlike the 50's through the 80's. The AMO is on the tail end of its positive phase but not yet negative. Given those parameters, my filtered data set spit out 23 winter storms since 1950. 9 of those winters had a PV split. Just based on those alone, and knowing that NAO/AO/PNA/and EPO are all short term events that cant be predicted without a couple weeks notice, winters that actually produced with those parameters are:

1950-51
1955-56
1964-65
1967-68
1969-70
1970-71
1974-75
2000-01
2008-09
2010-11
2020-21

2000-01 also had an incredibly negative QBO like the winter we are about to experience AND it was a second year Nina. 2017-18 looks similar with a second year Nina and off the chart QBO although PDO didn't quite match up. 2011-12 was a second year Nina in a negative PDO but its Nina was east based and SST dont match up well to now. Lots to assess between now and then. There are quite a few heavy hitters in the line up and one real dud (2011-2012).
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Mr. Golf on September 05, 2021, 05:04:27 PM
Not sure if anyone has seen this yet
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on September 08, 2021, 07:45:27 AM
Not sure if anyone has seen this yet

Weak La Nina and a negative QBO usually means cold....hopefully the image below can be seen...
(https://www.daculaweather.com/images/winter_neg_qbo_all_winter.png)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on September 08, 2021, 08:37:00 AM
Weak La Nina and a negative QBO usually means cold....hopefully the image below can be seen...
(https://www.daculaweather.com/images/winter_neg_qbo_all_winter.png)
better than a 50 50 chance we are heading toward a moderate La Niña
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on September 08, 2021, 09:39:16 AM
The models are a bit more aggressive on the Nina taking it to -1.1 to -1.3C range and a few even briefly dipping into strong La-Nina range.  The trick here is that it is very short-lived and quickly weakens to a Weak La-Nina by mid to late winter.

The two concerns about cold we have are

- The tendency to have low-pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska, which leads to the everyone in the US and Southern Canada torches pattern, but does provide drought relief for the Pacific Northwest at least.

- Will we see heat release from the mega-drought out west similar to the heat release we saw in 2011-12 with the drought in the southern plains.

There does appear to be at least an average chance at getting blocking in the arctic, which is good news and we may at least have shots of a -AO/-NAO. 

With all that being said, kinda like last winter, I like the idea of having a 2-4 week period of pure winter goodness surrounded by a period of average to at times well above average temperatures.   



Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on September 08, 2021, 10:34:00 AM
The models are a bit more aggressive on the Nina taking it to -1.1 to -1.3C range and a few even briefly dipping into strong La-Nina range.  The trick here is that it is very short-lived and quickly weakens to a Weak La-Nina by mid to late winter.

The two concerns about cold we have are

- The tendency to have low-pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska, which leads to the everyone in the US and Southern Canada torches pattern, but does provide drought relief for the Pacific Northwest at least.

- Will we see heat release from the mega-drought out west similar to the heat release we saw in 2011-12 with the drought in the southern plains.

With those being said there does appear to be at least an average chance at getting blocking in the arctic, which is good news and we may at least have shots of a -AO/-NAO. 

With all thatdef being said kinda like last winter I like the idea of having a 2-4 week period of pure winter goodness surrounded by a period of average to at times well above average temperatures.   
most definitely looking forward to the above average part…. Liking what see thus far .
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on September 15, 2021, 01:59:16 PM
Liking the chances of having a window for some good winter weather. In our area a solid week or 2 of true winter weather would have many on here ready for a warm up. I would always rather see a solid week of cold and snow than 2 or 3 snows strung out over 2-3 months and they are all gone the next day with a warm up. 7-10 days of snowcover at one time in our area is pretty awesome if we don't get much of nothing else. Last year we had 2 storms in 4-5 days and a good solid week of cold. I'll take that every winter. Always looking for the big dog, any snow over 6 inches in 24 hours is a big dog here. Still hoping to witness the 24 hour record to fall in my lifetime for my area. It is 12 inches. We had a shot that one march event 14-15 years ago, but we got 9. I have seen some 8 inch snows in the 80's a few times. Oh well I will quit the rambling on this rainy summer day, hope all are well. Will be checking in more the closer we get to winter. ::snowman::  ::cold::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Nashville_Wx on September 15, 2021, 02:18:23 PM
All I want to know is how much IMBY and when those dates are going to be. I really do not need any of the fine details.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on September 15, 2021, 05:10:12 PM
All I want to know is how much IMBY and when those dates are going to be. I really do not need any of the fine details.

Which backyard? LOL. Tahoe or Nashvegas?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on September 15, 2021, 06:23:13 PM
I'm expecting anywhere from 80-120 inches.  8)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on September 15, 2021, 06:58:45 PM
I'm expecting anywhere from 80-120 inches.  8)
you will get sick of snow this winter … lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: TNHunter on September 15, 2021, 09:37:03 PM
I'm expecting anywhere from 80-120 inches.  8)

I need some of what you are smoking.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on September 15, 2021, 09:43:33 PM
I need some of what you are smoking.
he is actually telling truth… he moved off to upstate new York for school… right in the heart of the big snow belt.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: TNHunter on September 16, 2021, 06:14:01 AM
he is actually telling truth… he moved off to upstate new York for school… right in the heart of the big snow belt.

Oh gotcha!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on September 19, 2021, 03:17:23 PM
he is actually telling truth… he moved off to upstate new York for school… right in the heart of the big snow belt.

I'll keep y'all posted if you're interested about the weather up here. First snow, biggest snow, etc.

I'll be in TN for all the holidays so I'll never become a stranger.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Clay on September 19, 2021, 05:47:10 PM
I'll keep y'all posted if you're interested about the weather up here. First snow, biggest snow, etc.

I'll be in TN for all the holidays so I'll never become a stranger.
140" per year. Average.  ::wow::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on September 19, 2021, 06:28:03 PM
That Gulf of Alaska low is probably going to make things more typical La-Nina'ish at times during the fall/winter season.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Nashville_Wx on September 19, 2021, 07:44:24 PM
Ill come visit. We can go to the Tug Hill Region. I am in Buffalo all week. May be in Rochester later next month. Otherwise head East and meet me in HN. We got this covered. Chase some nice convection coming off the lake! Thundersnow!!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on September 19, 2021, 08:38:02 PM
Ill come visit. We can go to the Tug Hill Region. I am in Buffalo all week. May be in Rochester later next month. Otherwise head East and meet me in HN. We got this covered. Chase some nice convection coming off the lake! Thundersnow!!
Heck yeah man, if you wind up here hit me up.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: mamMATTus on September 23, 2021, 12:11:41 PM
I definitely missed this. I don't think I buy it.

[attachimg=1]

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: joemomma on September 23, 2021, 01:19:16 PM
I definitely missed this. I don't think I buy it.

(Attachment Link)

I'd buy that for a dollar!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Drifter on September 26, 2021, 07:46:10 AM
Just letting y’all know I’m still here  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on September 26, 2021, 09:14:26 AM
Just letting y’all know I’m still here  ::snowman::
cool bro… hope hear from u within next 4 months Or so….
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on September 26, 2021, 11:53:21 AM
Just letting y’all know I’m still here  ::snowman::

'Sup Drifter!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: mempho on September 27, 2021, 09:57:39 PM
Now the models show a solid La-Nina at least the strength of last year.  A big change in the ENSO forecast as what was once a Neutral year now becomes a La-Nina.

With the mega-drought out west and all that heat energy, a strong Bermuda ridge, warm arctic, and possibly the Sunspots awakening this upcoming winter is looking quite 2011-12 ish.   

The early analogs are:
1999-00
2001-02
2005-06
2011-12
2016-17

Can we say yuck!!
2012 was the super El Nino and the drought busted in the west, if I'm correct. Both of these are horrible for snow here.

La Nina's are generally not great for show but a LA Nina with a West Coast drought and a - NAO are usually golden for snow here. We did miss in 2014 but it was very cold.  1985 was the winter previous to thar, I believe.

If we have a west coast drought, I like a good winter.  In addition, there's the Biblical explanation...the great reserves of cold and snow are reserved for times of trouble!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: mempho on September 27, 2021, 10:00:04 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210818/d6fcd2f9bcace20f34a896446918f060.jpg)

Weatherbell Prelim Winter Forecast for temps and snowfall.

Their analogs are 2003-04, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2017-18, 2020-21.
I like the way those snow contours look. I believe we may be in for an encore performance this year.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: mempho on September 27, 2021, 10:03:00 PM
If the drought out west holds, you're going to get some extreme dumps of cold air over the central US.  Then, it's all about lining that up with storms.  If that drought holds, we could - believe it or not - do better than last year.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: mempho on September 27, 2021, 10:05:30 PM
I definitely missed this. I don't think I buy it.

(Attachment Link)
More snow than rain this winter...

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Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Thundersnow on September 27, 2021, 10:23:17 PM
Alright- I’ll bite because- why not?

Super blockbuster storm in our region at some point in the coming years- as in, all time 24-hour snow records will be smashed.

Why you say?

Warm season storm systems have been trending toward high end rainfall totals. The climate is amped, and the Gulf is juiced. Just a matter of time before we thread a needle and get a polar high, and a slow moving super low grinds its way along the Gulf Coast and crushes the state.

Mempho, you have my back?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on September 28, 2021, 04:13:40 AM
Alright- I’ll bite because- why not?

Super blockbuster storm in our region at some point in the coming years- as in, all time 24-hour snow records will be smashed.

Why you say?

Warm season storm systems have been trending toward high end rainfall totals. The climate is amped, and the Gulf is juiced. Just a matter of time before we thread a needle and get a polar high, and a slow moving super low grinds its way along the Gulf Coast and crushes the state.

Mempho, you have my back?
they way you started out putting this, thought you were talking about another type storm system besides a winter one.  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: dwagner88 on September 28, 2021, 08:46:03 AM
Alright- I’ll bite because- why not?

Super blockbuster storm in our region at some point in the coming years- as in, all time 24-hour snow records will be smashed.

Why you say?

Warm season storm systems have been trending toward high end rainfall totals. The climate is amped, and the Gulf is juiced. Just a matter of time before we thread a needle and get a polar high, and a slow moving super low grinds its way along the Gulf Coast and crushes the state.

Mempho, you have my back?
The west half of the state wasn't too far off from that last year. Just needed deeper cold air to stop sleet contamination. For me, I think the more likely scenario for crazy totals is an overrunning event lasting a day or two being wrapped up with a big gulf low riding a stalled front.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on September 28, 2021, 08:57:57 AM
The west half of the state wasn't too far off from that last year. Just needed deeper cold air to stop sleet contamination. For me, I think the more likely scenario for crazy totals is an overrunning event lasting a day or two being wrapped up with a big gulf low riding a stalled front.
those gulf lows are starting get few and far in between….
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Drifter on September 28, 2021, 12:04:43 PM
I like the way those snow contours look. I believe we may be in for an encore performance this year.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

I’ll take 2003-2004 please and thank you! Never mind I was thinking about 2002-2003 lol
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on September 28, 2021, 02:41:49 PM
BAM has released their winter forecast. Looks like equal chances in our area on temps and snowfall. Slighty above avg for precip in general.

https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1442933980223864836 (https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1442933980223864836)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Matthew on September 28, 2021, 04:18:42 PM
BAM has released their winter forecast. Looks like equal chances in our area on temps and snowfall. Slighty above avg for precip in general.

https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1442933980223864836 (https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1442933980223864836)

I will take my chances with that.  Hopefully be well enough to sled with kiddos again this winter. 
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on September 28, 2021, 05:13:01 PM
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

This is Judah Cohen's website. There are a couple of good videos on the left thumbnail. He and several others completed reputable studies about climate change- and that most of the warming on the globe has taken place in the arctic. The warm arctic leads to a weak PV, which is stretched (not even necessarily split) much more over the last few years than before meaning North American winters are becoming more volatile, more snowy, and even colder in some locations- chiefly the Canadian prairies and the north and central plains into New England. Snowfall in these locations has been increasing- and in some cases dramatically. It will have implications for our region as well being this "far north". The 1990's was an era with the least disruption of the PV and less snowfall ensued. The paper def shows a link between the warming arctic and volatility in North America and Northern Eurasia for the last 10-15 years. IMBY- there has been a noticeable uptick in snowfall from about 2008 to now with a couple of poor winter examples thrown in, too.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on September 28, 2021, 05:25:59 PM
BAM has released their winter forecast. Looks like equal chances in our area on temps and snowfall. Slighty above avg for precip in general.

https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1442933980223864836 (https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1442933980223864836)
bout par for the course….
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Matthew on September 28, 2021, 05:30:42 PM
bout par for the course….


Your new name is Bruce Downer

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on September 28, 2021, 06:16:21 PM

Your new name is Bruce Downer
just stating maps shown by bama wx  look about right to me…  they are not going out to far on a limb… can’t blame them.  We need that pesky gulf of Alaska low removed, the pacific what’s been the problem last several years , couple of those years could have been a great winter if pacific would have been favorable to us.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on September 28, 2021, 06:45:11 PM
BAM has released their winter forecast. Looks like equal chances in our area on temps and snowfall. Slighty above avg for precip in general.

https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1442933980223864836 (https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1442933980223864836)
I like how they have a CYA “risk bust” map. Way to say “but we told you it could happen”.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Matthew on September 28, 2021, 07:15:49 PM
just stating maps shown by bama wx  look about right to me…  they are not going out to far on a limb… can’t blame them.  We need that pesky gulf of Alaska low removed, the pacific what’s been the problem last several years , couple of those years could have been a great winter if pacific would have been favorable to us.

Understand but equal chances are positive to me.  I thought last winter was great.  A week of snow and sledding was wonderful to me. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on September 28, 2021, 07:37:52 PM
Understand but equal chances are positive to me.  I thought last winter was great.  A week of snow and sledding was wonderful to me.
yeah I broke the ole sled out myself that snowy week. I felt like kid again lol sledding with the grandkids ….
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on September 29, 2021, 06:54:19 AM
yeah I broke the ole sled out myself that snowy week. I felt like kid again lol sledding with the grandkids ….

All things considered, last winter was good. It was the most snow I had seen in a single winter in 10 years.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: bugalou on October 02, 2021, 01:13:33 PM
I am not going to produce a fancy graphic or think about this too much, but I will throw in my  ::twocents:: on how I think this winter will go based on the pattern thus far from now back to the summer of 2020.

I see the western half of the state as slightly above normal with temps and precipitation. Eastern much of the same, just a few days behind and dryer.  We will get semi frequent cold shots that are transient, but will stick around long enough to perhaps squeeze some overrunning winter precip in the west.  The east will have to rely on clippers for any snow chances (not counting if the PV sets up in a good location as I am about to talk about).  I think we will see another polar vortex ejection to the lower 48 again this year but I am not going to try and predict where.  Hopefully it plummets down the middle of the country like last year and puts the most of the state at the base of the trough where pacific systems can train trough, but the PV could end up anywhere.  I think it will be east of the rockies at minimum with the western US likely staying warm/dry.

Basically I am seeing a repeat of the last 3 winters, with maybe a few more cold shots.
My apologies for not preparing this better based on linked data.  I hate doing that, but I wanted to contribute my thoughts, and have just been too busy with work to follow the weather too closely the past couple months. I am sure some of you noticed my absence here.  :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: gcbama on October 02, 2021, 02:30:46 PM
I am not going to produce a fancy graphic or think about this too much, but I will throw in my  ::twocents:: on how I think this winter will go based on the pattern thus far from now back to the summer of 2020.

I see the western half of the state as slightly above normal with temps and precipitation. Eastern much of the same, just a few days behind and dryer.  We will get semi frequent cold shots that are transient, but will stick around long enough to perhaps squeeze some overrunning winter precip in the west.  The east will have to rely on clippers for any snow chances (not counting if the PV sets up in a good location as I am about to talk about).  I think we will see another polar vortex ejection to the lower 48 again this year but I am not going to try and predict where.  Hopefully it plummets down the middle of the country like last year and puts the most of the state at the base of the trough where pacific systems can train trough, but the PV could end up anywhere.  I think it will be east of the rockies at minimum with the western US likely staying warm/dry.

Basically I am seeing a repeat of the last 3 winters, with maybe a few more cold shots.
My apologies for not preparing this better based on linked data.  I hate doing that, but I wanted to contribute my thoughts, and have just been too busy with work to follow the weather too closely the past couple months. I am sure some of you noticed my absence here.  :)

Winter precip last year was pretty much how i like, it a perfectly average season....2 events in my area, one produced 2.5 inches of snow and the big one in feb I got around 5 inches of snow on top of that half inch of sleet...Also had an very cold christmas day which i love and a full week of arctic temps in feb when i did not get above freezing for 8 days....I could have used a little more snow but overall it was a great winter for me. If we can get close to that again this year i will be happy :)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on October 02, 2021, 02:48:06 PM
My first thought is that this goes with a combination of 2005-06 and last winter.  2005-06 had that record warm January but had some chances in Dec and Feb that we did not capitalize on and last winter had a not as warm January but NE TN hit paydirt on Christmas and most everyone else minus SE TN scored in February.

A lot of things are similar including the ENSO, general Pacific look, ridging capabilities in the Northern Plains/Canada, etc.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: mempho on October 05, 2021, 05:20:24 AM
I do agree with you.  I think totals could be epic in some locales, possibly 3, 4, or even 5 times anything that is in our recorded observations.

In a very serious note, this winter appears to have a highly elevated risk of this type of event.  Do we get significant cold air mass buildup over the cold pole along with a cross-Polar flow and a well-timed drop of the air? Those questions can't be answered but there is much evidence this is highly likely to occur.  While that could change, there is nothing expected to cause it to do so.

The serious part of this is simply this.... This type of event across the heart of America will likely cause not only a local humanitarian crisis but also have significant disruption to regional, national, and international supply chains.

Locally, the event will likely be devastating.  Accumulations of 3 to 6 feet would occur locally.  Sounds extreme, right? 

Did you see how quickly this year the right combination of cold and moisture can put down 6 inches here?  Now, imagine that it trains with a stalled boundary.  Did you see areas like Pine Bluff, AR last year? How many inches in just 24 hours with a stalling system? There are few places on earth where this type of high-end potential can occur.  It has my happened much in the past couple of centuries but that does not mean it won't happen.  I believe we see entering a historically  unprecedented situation here.  Without a quick warmup, travel could be adversely impacted for weeks.

Be prepared to have food and water and a way to keep warm for at least two to three weeks. 

Buy a snow shovel. 

Buy a ladder to get to your roof to shovel the snow off. 

Buy appropriate snow apparel, including pants, socks, boots, and gloves.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on October 05, 2021, 05:56:10 AM
I do agree with you.  I think totals could be epic in some locales, possibly 3, 4, or even 5 times anything that is in our recorded observations.

In a very serious note, this winter appears to have a highly elevated risk of this type of event.  Do we get significant cold air mass buildup over the cold pole along with a cross-Polar flow and a well-timed drop of the air? Those questions can't be answered but there is much evidence this is highly likely to occur.  While that could change, there is nothing expected to cause it to do so.

The serious part of this is simply this.... This type of event across the heart of America will likely cause not only a local humanitarian crisis but also have significant disruption to regional, national, and international supply chains.

Locally, the event will likely be devastating.  Accumulations of 3 to 6 feet would occur locally.  Sounds extreme, right? 

Did you see how quickly this year the right combination of cold and moisture can put down 6 inches here?  Now, imagine that it trains with a stalled boundary.  Did you see areas like Pine Bluff, AR last year? How many inches in just 24 hours with a stalling system? There are few places on earth where this type of high-end potential can occur.  It has my happened much in the past couple of centuries but that does not mean it won't happen.  I believe we see entering a historically  unprecedented situation here.  Without a quick warmup, travel could be adversely impacted for weeks.

Be prepared to have food and water and a way to keep warm for at least two to three weeks. 

Buy a snow shovel. 

Buy a ladder to get to your roof to shovel the snow off. 

Buy appropriate snow apparel, including pants, socks, boots, and gloves.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
lmao… this post must been made back in the 70s ….but I it can’t be, this forum wasn’t around then. …
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on October 05, 2021, 07:27:10 AM
I do agree with you.  I think totals could be epic in some locales, possibly 3, 4, or even 5 times anything that is in our recorded observations.

In a very serious note, this winter appears to have a highly elevated risk of this type of event.  Do we get significant cold air mass buildup over the cold pole along with a cross-Polar flow and a well-timed drop of the air? Those questions can't be answered but there is much evidence this is highly likely to occur.  While that could change, there is nothing expected to cause it to do so.

The serious part of this is simply this.... This type of event across the heart of America will likely cause not only a local humanitarian crisis but also have significant disruption to regional, national, and international supply chains.

Locally, the event will likely be devastating.  Accumulations of 3 to 6 feet would occur locally.  Sounds extreme, right? 

Did you see how quickly this year the right combination of cold and moisture can put down 6 inches here?  Now, imagine that it trains with a stalled boundary.  Did you see areas like Pine Bluff, AR last year? How many inches in just 24 hours with a stalling system? There are few places on earth where this type of high-end potential can occur.  It has my happened much in the past couple of centuries but that does not mean it won't happen.  I believe we see entering a historically  unprecedented situation here.  Without a quick warmup, travel could be adversely impacted for weeks.

Be prepared to have food and water and a way to keep warm for at least two to three weeks. 

Buy a snow shovel. 

Buy a ladder to get to your roof to shovel the snow off. 

Buy appropriate snow apparel, including pants, socks, boots, and gloves.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

In all seriousness, last February's cold snap/winter weather caused over 21 Billion dollars in damage and killed over 250 people.  It further undermined trust in both government and big corporations and caused strive.

What Mempho said is actually not too far off the mark for what went on in TX/S Arkansas last winter.  People really underestimated the damage that cold shot caused. 

With climate change and the increase of high-latitude blocking along with aging infrastructure, there are some concerns.  We are not looking at Fallout or Walking Dead stuff here but it is something to think about it as with all-natural disasters.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on October 05, 2021, 09:00:20 AM
Just to add, part of climate change is Earths quickly weakening magnetic field which also plays with the weather at our poles.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on October 05, 2021, 04:58:44 PM
Just to add, part of climate change is Earths quickly weakening magnetic field which also plays with the weather at our poles.

https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/3104/flip-flop-why-variations-in-earths-magnetic-field-arent-causing-todays-climate-change/
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on October 05, 2021, 08:14:51 PM
https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/3104/flip-flop-why-variations-in-earths-magnetic-field-arent-causing-todays-climate-change/

Its a complicated issue and having listened to NASA debate this issue, just my opinion, but they dont seem to have as firm a grasp on this topic as those who are doing extensive work on space weather. Id look into suspicious observers channel on youtube where they go back and forth with NASA folks. Interesting, no matter which side you agree with.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Thundersnow on October 05, 2021, 09:25:44 PM
Its a complicated issue and having listened to NASA debate this issue, just my opinion, but they dont seem to have as firm a grasp on this topic as those who are doing extensive work on space weather. Id look into suspicious observers channel on youtube where they go back and forth with NASA folks. Interesting, no matter which side you agree with.

Heh- I’m seeing a theme here (common with the covid thread).

;)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on October 06, 2021, 05:21:35 AM
Here's what Accu has come up with if y'all haven't seen it yet. They're not really straying from Nina analogs.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-us-winter-forecast/1022887 (https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-us-winter-forecast/1022887)

(https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Winter-2021-2022-Highlights.jpg?w=632)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: mempho on October 06, 2021, 06:25:45 AM
In all seriousness, last February's cold snap/winter weather caused over 21 Billion dollars in damage and killed over 250 people.  It further undermined trust in both government and big corporations and caused strive.

What Mempho said is actually not too far off the mark for what went on in TX/S Arkansas last winter.  People really underestimated the damage that cold shot caused. 

With climate change and the increase of high-latitude blocking along with aging infrastructure, there are some concerns.  We are not looking at Fallout or Walking Dead stuff here but it is something to think about it as with all-natural disasters.
Let's also state that the California drought situation is fairly dire.  There are indications that the past 200 years were much wetter than previous centuries in the past two millinea.  Therefore, a return to a much drier state could be a reversion to the mean or an indication of climate change.  Take your pick but, if it continue to get worse, it will likely be debated/studied.  Now, the possibility of an ill-timed La Nina has reared its head. 

Regardless, what this would mean for us is that essentially, it supports the development semi-permanent area of a High pressure in the west (drought begets drought essentially).

That will support times of coast-to-coast torch along the southern half of the United States but it ALSO supports extended periods of trough in the east and guides of severely cold air masses into the central and Eastern parts of the United States.

These cold air masses will interact with moisture-laden air masses and the results can, at times, be astounding. Even in bad years (for us), someone gets hammered.  A "bad" year in this regime is a 2014 redux.  Cold and snowless.  However, there are also years with tremendous results.  There may occasionally be years like a 2012 with coast-to-coast torch all the way but these will not be the norm.

We could also see seasons, however, for which there is no comparison.  The problem is that most of that snow will likely come up in a very compressed time period and that can lead to problems.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on October 06, 2021, 07:04:29 AM
If we don't lose that Gulf of Alaska low and the Pacific in general stays at its current configuration then this winter will probably follow the classic La-Nina route. 

Of course even if this was a Neutral or even weak El-Nino and the Pacific looked like this it would follow the classic La-Nina route.  Meaning one could probably actually use analogs this winter and do well, something that was impossible to do the last 4 or so winters.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on October 06, 2021, 10:44:07 AM
Heh- I’m seeing a theme here (common with the covid thread).

;)

Yeah, I'm open to ideas and don't defer to authority. Just because NASA says it, doesn't make it gospel. The other side presents a compelling argument and honestly has better evidence on their side. But it is complicated subject matter with multiple variables, many still not well understood.

If people are interested, there is a daily video where they go over some really interesting topics, many times weather related. This was just from the other day... https://youtu.be/Q4djO6P1ozI?t=66 (https://youtu.be/Q4djO6P1ozI?t=66)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on October 06, 2021, 11:04:21 AM
https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/3104/flip-flop-why-variations-in-earths-magnetic-field-arent-causing-todays-climate-change/

This video is in response to the NASA article linked. It gives the other side.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K08PuUPnINk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K08PuUPnINk)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Mr. Golf on October 06, 2021, 04:09:24 PM
I think this winter will go 1 of two ways. 1st- Blowtorch all winter starting this month and lasting until March.  2nd- we get an early SSW and a first half cold winter.  ::scratch:: Its no fun having no opportunities at winter weather here, but we are in the south and having one opportunity at snow and ice each winter is a blessing for us.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on October 06, 2021, 05:29:19 PM
I think this winter will go 1 of two ways. 1st- Blowtorch all winter starting this month and lasting until March.  2nd- we get an early SSW and a first half cold winter.  ::scratch:: Its no fun having no opportunities at winter weather here, but we are in the south and having one opportunity at snow and ice each winter is a blessing for us.
you know your in big trouble when start to depending on ssw event lol…
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: BALLPARK on October 07, 2021, 08:15:42 AM
GFS has a nice snow storm in 2 weeks with plenty of cold air.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2021, 08:56:18 AM
GFS has a nice snow storm in 2 weeks with plenty of cold air.

If that verified that low-pressure system would set a record for having its own cold air available.  It literally shows Indiana/Western KY being colder than most of Canada just due to being in the right position with an compact low-pressure system.   

 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: BALLPARK on October 07, 2021, 09:28:24 AM
Yeah kind of extreme weather. It fits in the climate change pattern some of them been talking about on here.
Title: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on October 07, 2021, 02:31:17 PM
NPAC SST look identical to October 2013. It was a weak La Nina winter. As winter progressed the warm pool migrated east into the Gulf of Alaska. October 2013 started off warm and cooled into late month before November went well BN. Should be interesting to follow.

1950-51 is also very similar to now- 2nd year Nina, positive AMO/ negative PDO, negative QBO. October 1950 was well AN, followed by the Great Apps Snowstorm before Thanksgiving which covered the entire state, followed by more actic air and snow in early December. January torched until what's now known as the "Ice Storm of the Century" hit west and middle in late Jan early Feb.

Roller Coaster winter? Possible for sure.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on October 07, 2021, 02:38:21 PM
NPAC SST like identical to October 2013. It was a weak La Nina winter. As winter progressed the warm pool migrated east into the Gulf of Alaska. October 2013 started off warm and cooled into late month before November went well BN. Should be interesting to follow.

1950-51 is also very similar to now- 2nd year Nina, positive AMO/ negative PDO, negative QBO. October 1950 was well AN, followed by the Great Apps Snowstorm before Thanksgiving which covered the entire state, followed by more actic air and snow in early December. January torched until what's now known as the "Ice Storm of the Century" hit west and middle in late Jan early Feb.

Roller Coaster winter? Possible for sure.
bring on the roller coaster winter … my type. Agree
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2021, 06:54:47 PM
NPAC SST like identical to October 2013. It was a weak La Nina winter. As winter progressed the warm pool migrated east into the Gulf of Alaska. October 2013 started off warm and cooled into late month before November went well BN. Should be interesting to follow.

1950-51 is also very similar to now- 2nd year Nina, positive AMO/ negative PDO, negative QBO. October 1950 was well AN, followed by the Great Apps Snowstorm before Thanksgiving which covered the entire state, followed by more actic air and snow in early December. January torched until what's now known as the "Ice Storm of the Century" hit west and middle in late Jan early Feb.

Roller Coaster winter? Possible for sure.

Despite the record storm in Late Jan-Early Feb and the extreme cold snap that set records that still stand to this day, the winter of 1950-51 ended up finishing around average temperature-wise due to some very warm periods.  Nearly every day after Feb 10th in 1951 was above average. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Mr. Golf on October 08, 2021, 03:22:46 PM
NPAC SST look identical to October 2013. It was a weak La Nina winter. As winter progressed the warm pool migrated east into the Gulf of Alaska. October 2013 started off warm and cooled into late month before November went well BN. Should be interesting to follow.

1950-51 is also very similar to now- 2nd year Nina, positive AMO/ negative PDO, negative QBO. October 1950 was well AN, followed by the Great Apps Snowstorm before Thanksgiving which covered the entire state, followed by more actic air and snow in early December. January torched until what's now known as the "Ice Storm of the Century" hit west and middle in late Jan early Feb.

Roller Coaster winter? Possible for sure.
If we see anything remotely close to that winter, we will have alot of cold air around for a fact. The epo was negative about 80% of the time.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on October 08, 2021, 03:33:28 PM
If we see anything remotely close to that winter, we will have alot of cold air around for a fact. The epo was negative about 80% of the time.
that gulf of Alaska low is your friend…
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2021, 07:59:29 AM
We are now expecting a Strong La-Nina when combined with the Gulf of Alaska low I think we may finally see a winter that acts like its ENSO.

I do still think we see a 2-4 week period of winter goodness with the active northern stream plus the potential for some blocking.  Outside of super ULL's or a March/April Hail Mary, this will have to be our window to make something happen. The mid to late January 2000 period comes to mind as a prime example and analog.  Other than that we are probably going to be warm to the core as the Bermuda Ridge or Bermuda/Sonora ridge merger clings to us like bees cling to honey. 

Severe weather events like the ones we are looking at this week are also going to be on the table at times and in the same general area from the Southern Plains over towards the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes.  MO/IL/IN/N KY may have a greater tornado threat this winter than TN and points south at times this winter.

[attachimg=1][attachimg=2]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2021, 11:44:02 AM
NPAC SST look identical to October 2013. It was a weak La Nina winter. As winter progressed the warm pool migrated east into the Gulf of Alaska. October 2013 started off warm and cooled into late month before November went well BN. Should be interesting to follow.

1950-51 is also very similar to now- 2nd year Nina, positive AMO/ negative PDO, negative QBO. October 1950 was well AN, followed by the Great Apps Snowstorm before Thanksgiving which covered the entire state, followed by more actic air and snow in early December. January torched until what's now known as the "Ice Storm of the Century" hit west and middle in late Jan early Feb.

Roller Coaster winter? Possible for sure.

The epic winter that those old enough love to harken back to (1985--when else?), was certainly a roller coaster ride.  Cold in late November and early December, followed by record warmth and flooding from mid-December until early January.  After that we had 6 epic weeks of winter/cold that abruptly ended in mid February.  It was a definite roller coaster.  But then, we do spend money to ride them at an amusement park.  I'll enjoy the ride. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on October 10, 2021, 11:46:37 AM
The epic winter that those old enough love to harken back to (1985--when else?), was certainly a roller coaster ride.  Cold in late November and early December, followed by record warmth and flooding from mid-December until early January.  After that we had 6 epic weeks of winter/cold that abruptly ended in mid February.  It was a definite roller coaster.  But then, we do spend money to ride them at an amusement park.  I'll enjoy the ride.
winter 84 and 85 talking about …
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2021, 12:54:34 PM
The analog map looks pretty similar to my outlook as well.  There is a long-range model that shows something similar.

This winter may actually be a winter that you can use analogs for because the ENSO signal plus GOA/Aleutian Island Ridge signal is so strong. 

[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2021, 12:55:51 PM
I probably should have doubled up 1999-00 along with 2005-06 as a top analog. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on October 12, 2021, 08:09:54 AM
The pacific is hot mess. Gulf Alaska low stubborn as I ever seen it. And with a moderate Nina starting be real possibility, any se ridge in place it’s going be cutter city this winter … lakes cutters here we come .
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Matthew on October 12, 2021, 08:17:08 AM
The pacific is hot mess. Gulf Alaska low stubborn as I ever seen it. And with a moderate Nina starting be real possibility, any se ridge in place it’s going be cutter city this winter … lakes cutters here we come .

It’s not even November and you are already Debbie downer.  Wx changes all the time.  Looking at long range and seasonal is futile.  Just enjoy the wx we have like this weekend and next is going to be fabulous!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on October 12, 2021, 08:23:14 AM
It’s not even November and you are already Debbie downer.  Wx changes all the time.  Looking at long range and seasonal is futile.  Just enjoy the wx we have like this weekend and next is going to be fabulous!
im enjoying weather we have , that’s way I look at this. Enjoy one day time. But I just implying what I see future pattern taken shape. The pacific is a hot mess. Montana and Wyoming are going be the big winners this winter …
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on October 12, 2021, 08:56:18 AM
Got my first snowfall of the season, sort of. Stayed in Flagstaff lastnight and woke up to a nice little coating this morning. Still flurrying.
 ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Beth on October 12, 2021, 09:19:01 AM
Daughter in Idaho Falls, Idaho sent this to us this morning.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on October 12, 2021, 09:28:32 AM
We are now expecting a Strong La-Nina when combined with the Gulf of Alaska low I think we may finally see a winter that acts like its ENSO.

I do still think we see a 2-4 week period of winter goodness with the active northern stream plus the potential for some blocking.  Outside of super ULL's or a March/April Hail Mary, this will have to be our window to make something happen. The mid to late January 2000 period comes to mind as a prime example and analog.  Other than that we are probably going to be warm to the core as the Bermuda Ridge or Bermuda/Sonora ridge merger clings to us like bees cling to honey. 

Severe weather events like the ones we are looking at this week are also going to be on the table at times and in the same general area from the Southern Plains over towards the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes.  MO/IL/IN/N KY may have a greater tornado threat this winter than TN and points south at times this winter.

(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211012/67c44ded3a84afed174370e95b4a9e04.jpg)The CFS is probably too low on the ENSO chart. Most models are clustered around -1.0. Even the CFS doesn’t get below -1.5. Last year, it was predicting a strong Niña as well which never materialized. I think low end moderate Niña is most likely.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Thundersnow on October 14, 2021, 08:43:32 PM
 https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/14/weather/la-nina-develops-2021/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/14/weather/la-nina-develops-2021/index.html)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on October 14, 2021, 10:49:54 PM
Daughter in Idaho Falls, Idaho sent this to us this morning.

Wow. Went to Grand Canyon South Rim Tuesday and it pretty much snowed most of the day at 33 degrees and ended up with a few inches. We stuck it out and got some breaks in the clouds toward the end of the day, so it wasnt a total loss, but heck I didnt even know it snowed like that at the Canyon.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on October 15, 2021, 09:01:50 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211015/456e20f04c367839bf5cea9ad88f1f98.jpg)
CFS2 when adjusted to current climatology is less aggressive on the La Niña. Even so it’s far more aggressive than other models. If the La Niña is going to get as cold as the CFS2 then start warming around the new year, it’s going to have to have a rapid cooling. Looks more weak to low end moderate than strong.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on October 19, 2021, 08:59:05 AM
NOAA put out their upcoming winter forecast … much above average temps east of the Rockies … below out west northwest .classic Nina look
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Matthew on October 19, 2021, 10:52:17 AM
NOAA put out their upcoming winter forecast … much above average temps east of the Rockies … below out west northwest .classic Nina look

As we all know.  NOAA will change it a lot.  Long range forecasting is like a lottery. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 19, 2021, 11:27:37 AM
NOAA long range forecast will flop more than a Ole Miss football player. It's being widely reported the new mascot name is the Fainting Goats!!!! ::rofl::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on October 19, 2021, 06:03:45 PM
NOAA long range forecast will flop more than a Ole Miss football player. It's being widely reported the new mascot name is the Fainting Goats!!!! ::rofl::

My man....   ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: SouthavenSpotter on October 20, 2021, 06:06:20 PM
NOAA long range forecast will flop more than a Ole Miss football player. It's being widely reported the new mascot name is the Fainting Goats!!!! ::rofl::

https://mobile.twitter.com/SidelineCFB/status/1449572254782828544
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Matthew on October 20, 2021, 06:41:45 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/SidelineCFB/status/1449572254782828544

It is ridiculous for many teams.  Men’s professional soccer is even worse. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Crockett on October 20, 2021, 07:43:30 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/SidelineCFB/status/1449572254782828544

Comparing that to Ole Miss flopping is apples vs. oranges! Context is everything.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on October 20, 2021, 09:08:00 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/SidelineCFB/status/1449572254782828544

That's weak, Mr. RebelLandsharkBlackbear
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 21, 2021, 08:50:17 AM
The 2019 basketball game at ole miss, they called a mississippi player for charging into Grant. Debris flew onto the court. Doesn't justify any of it, I just made a joke about how many times the NOAA forecast would flip flop. Actually I was there in the top deck in the north end zone, had not the fans thrown stuff on the field I actually think the Vols may have pulled it off. If you get the ball back with a packed house and the Band and Pep band still there the energy is 10 times what it was. Who knows it might not have helped but it couldn't have hurt.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on October 21, 2021, 06:41:52 PM
Here's our Nina, served hot and fresh:

NOAA's winter wx forecast. Seems legit. Just one of those winters.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Nash_LSU on October 22, 2021, 08:10:23 AM
Here's our Nina, served hot and fresh:

NOAA's winter wx forecast. Seems legit. Just one of those winters.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2)

Warm and wet. Lovely. Might have to finally buy that SAD light box I've been eyeing the past few winters.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on October 22, 2021, 08:14:31 AM
Here's our Nina, served hot and fresh:

NOAA's winter wx forecast. Seems legit. Just one of those winters.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2)

Ahh, what do they know. I just bought a couple new plastic sleds after the kids busted up the last ones with all the sleet sledding last Feb. Feeling confident.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 22, 2021, 09:01:43 AM
Their forecast will change as soon as it gets cold. ::rofl:: We will get snow!
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on October 23, 2021, 08:55:02 AM
How am I reading big snows in the forecast for Tahoe on Twitter before NashvilleWx pronounces it here? You're slipping NashvilleWx.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on October 23, 2021, 01:02:29 PM
Ahh, what do they know. I just bought a couple new plastic sleds after the kids busted up the last ones with all the sleet sledding last Feb. Feeling confident.

Kinda looks like my outlook except replace the below-average with just average.  If our air becomes Pacific in nature and our snow-cover in North America continues to suck then I wouldn't be surprised if we watch North Dakota have another warm/dry winter.     
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: mempho on October 25, 2021, 12:17:52 PM
How am I reading big snows in the forecast for Tahoe on Twitter before NashvilleWx pronounces it here? You're slipping NashvilleWx.

You didn't ask me but the drought in the west has been key.  Things could change but there are two current trends that are working against our chances of a blockbuster winter and the combination could completely ruin winter.

1) The strenghtening of La Nina from a weak phase into a stronger Nina.
2) The alleviation of drought in the West.  If the current parade of stroms is an isolated event, it may not have much effect on our winter.  However, if an overall wetter pattern commences in the west, then it may ruin our chances.  The alleviation of short-term drought parameters is much more important in this context than long-term parameters. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 26, 2021, 12:42:49 PM
On this day last year oklahoma city and points west were getting a early season ice storm. I had forgotten about that until I seen somebody talking about it on a weather forum. Hope old man winter isn't dull at least make the pattern interesting to watch. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on October 26, 2021, 03:36:10 PM
The PV is undergoing significant warming with another warming forecast in November. Regardless of split or displacement, a warming or weak PV means its able to stretch like a rubber band when called upon by other forces- and usually the mid latitudes see the result 30-60 days later. This scenario vs the 2011-12 winter where the PV was cold and wrapped up tight = big difference. I would guess there is potential for December into mid January to have some arctic outbreaks come down through the central plains. MJO may determine position of the SE ridge and where boundaries set up.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: southaven on October 27, 2021, 02:12:08 PM
NOAA long range forecast will flop more than a Ole Miss football player. It's being widely reported the new mascot name is the Fainting Goats!!!! ::rofl::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 27, 2021, 07:28:17 PM

I was there, yes Tennessee flopped a few times after you all did it several. You really saying we flopped as much? Let it go dude, I was making reference to how much the NOAA long range would flip. You all won, be happy.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on October 27, 2021, 11:45:00 PM
I was there, yes Tennessee flopped a few times after you all did it several. You really saying we flopped as much? Let it go dude, I was making reference to how much the NOAA long range would flip. You all won, be happy.

You really rustled the Ole Miss Rebel Landshark Blackbears with that one bro
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: snowdog on October 29, 2021, 08:15:11 AM
The PV is undergoing significant warming with another warming forecast in November. Regardless of split or displacement, a warming or weak PV means its able to stretch like a rubber band when called upon by other forces- and usually the mid latitudes see the result 30-60 days later. This scenario vs the 2011-12 winter where the PV was cold and wrapped up tight = big difference. I would guess there is potential for December into mid January to have some arctic outbreaks come down through the central plains. MJO may determine position of the SE ridge and where boundaries set up.

Seems kind of early for that, no? Wonder what winters look like in DJF that had significant disturbances to the PV in November.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on October 29, 2021, 09:32:32 AM
Seems kind of early for that, no? Wonder what winters look like in DJF that had significant disturbances to the PV in November.
pretty much only thing i could find to a early attack on the PV was, winter early start but fairly quick ending, so we need to score early this season . because after mid january, going be tough. Even early start to winter there still some uncerntanity if the cold even comes down this side of the globe.   ::coffee:: ::coffee::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Curt on October 29, 2021, 09:40:36 AM
Seems kind of early for that, no? Wonder what winters look like in DJF that had significant disturbances to the PV in November.

PV is getting warm and looks to have another significant warming later in November.  With a weak PV, negative QBO, and a weak to low end moderate La Nina should open the door to some serious cold intrusions into the middle of the country. I think there will be some opportunities for some cold- possibly serious cold at times -in Nov-Jan.

EDIT worth noting the CFS2 did an about face since August for Nov-Jan. Its ripe for arctic air masses to come southward- and there's a SE ridge too.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Bruce on October 29, 2021, 10:25:49 AM
PV is getting warm and looks to have another significant warming later in November.  With a weak PV, negative QBO, and a weak to low end moderate La Nina should open the door to some serious cold intrusions into the middle of the country. I think there will be some opportunities for some cold- possibly serious cold at times -in Nov-Jan.

EDIT worth noting the CFS2 did an about face since August for Nov-Jan. Its ripe for arctic air masses to come southward- and there's a SE ridge too.
classic air mass clash setting up long range, where the battle groud is, who knows ::coffee::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Woodvegas on November 13, 2021, 11:19:11 AM
Link to DT's 2021-2022 Winter Forecast. Seems like the strength of the La Nina will be critical. I hope he is right and it will be mostly weak.

https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AHiE1ogY%5FofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375%2127987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375%2124503&o=OneUp
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on November 13, 2021, 12:47:47 PM
classic air mass clash setting up long range, where the battle groud is, who knows ::coffee::

My guess would be that it will alternate between the Northern Plains and the Ozarks with possible short-lived entrances into KY/TN.  This winter does look likely to be more classic Ninaish compared to last winter.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on November 21, 2021, 11:13:40 AM
https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1462404812344021000?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1462404812344021000%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Read and weep
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on November 21, 2021, 11:17:08 AM
For some good news:

GaWX on another forum did post that the MJO progression is pretty much on point with 2017 so there is that. 

Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Matthew on November 27, 2021, 12:17:54 AM
Well reading some positive thoughts going into December.  From meteorologists that are solid & actually seldom go with cold forecast.  Seems things are lining up for a POSSIBLE cold wx pattern with a POSSIBLE southern storm track for December.  🙏🏻😱
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 27, 2021, 11:27:47 AM
Winter is localized in TN. It doesnt mattern how GOOD things look or BAD. Systems come in and lay small areas of accumulating snow down. There isnt much more to it than this. We can talk about how the overall season is going to shape up, but its pointless. I rather talk about a system that IS developing than speculate Winter will be good or bad IMBY. Nothing screams block buster winter , yet nothing screams bad to me. Would it matter what models say now anyways? Ill sit back until we have legit threat or ***** says something stupid.  ::shrug:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Matthew on November 27, 2021, 11:42:10 AM
Winter is localized in TN. It doesnt mattern how GOOD things look or BAD. Systems come in and lay small areas of accumulating snow down. There isnt much more to it than this. We can talk about how the overall season is going to shape up, but its pointless. I rather talk about a system that IS developing than speculate Winter will be good or bad IMBY. Nothing screams block buster winter , yet nothing screams bad to me. Would it matter what models say now anyways? Ill sit back until we have legit threat or ***** says something stupid.  ::shrug:: ::rofl::

True.  Was just passing on what a couple of Mets were feeling for TN. If we get snow awesome.  If we don’t that’s ok also.  I’m still recovering from Covid so sledding is not happening for me unfortunately.  I would enjoy seeing it & watching my kids sled in it.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on November 27, 2021, 02:46:16 PM
Someone keeps putting their 2011-2012 reruns in our December to remember pattern. They need to stop that before I walk up the stairs and ground them.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on November 27, 2021, 11:57:46 PM
Here are my thoughts on this winter:

Good:
1. Nina will help weaken the polar vortex and bring more chances of cold air coming south
2. Increased precipitation for the Tennessee Valley/ reduced likelihood of a suppressed dry pattern
3. Favorable storm track over TN Valley if Polar Jet dips far south

Bad:
1. Enhanced severe risk for mid-South and Lower MS Delta
2. Warmer than average winter + below normal snowfall for much of the country
3. Less influential MJO early thanks to moderate Nina
4. Possible delayed spring with hard freezes well into March

I expect more chances for winter weather down in the Tennessee Valley later in the winter. It may be somewhat like last winter, with a few blasts of Arctic air making it very far south into the Southern Plains while the Bermuda High keeps the Southeast Coast warmer and drier than normal.

I think December will be very warm for much of the U.S. with few exceptions. The Northern Plains will be playing catch-up with seasonal snowfall in the second half of winter. Lake-effect snowfall may be amplified as a result of frequent storms tracking from the Plains to Quebec, bringing a nice NW flow over the lakes.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on November 27, 2021, 11:59:35 PM
General

[attachimg=2]


Snowfall

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on November 28, 2021, 08:13:31 AM
The thoughts that I posted on page 8 remain the same.

Above average for most everyone minus the possible exceptions of the Pacific NW and Interior Alaska.   

The pattern being a mix of zonal flow, merged ridging in the SW/SE, and the occasional modified cold air trough.  I do think that the Central/Eastern US faces a 2 to possibly as much as 3-4 week period of actual winter at some point (I would guess maybe late Dec-Jan).  Very similar to 1999-00 or even a slightly less intense version of last winter.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: joemomma on November 30, 2021, 01:14:59 PM
My annual winter call:

Throw your LR models and analogs out, again.  Amazingly enough, we still can't predict the weather (reliably) more than a few days out.  We can look at trends and tendencies, but to be able to say it's going to do this or that a couple months from now, nope.

This winter: might snow, might not.  We'll have some cold days and some warm days.  Some wet, some dry.

In all seriousness, I have a gut feeling that we'll have a "decent" winter.  It only takes one good storm or two to make it decent.  Last year surprised me (for the good) and I'll take that again (minus the ice this time). 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2021, 02:38:03 PM
Holding myself accountable: here's how I did last year.
Didn't hurt me too much to go straight Nina, which is pretty much what I did. Would have never expected the polar air over the Southern Plains in February.

[attachimg=1]

Here's what happened:

(https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/US_temp_Dec-Jan-Feb2021_620.jpg)

(https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/US_precip_Dec-Jan-Feb2021_620.jpg)
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 01, 2021, 08:10:53 AM
Ryan Vaughn's winter outlook.

http://ryansmorningblog.blogspot.com/
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 01, 2021, 10:45:56 AM
Here are my thoughts on this winter:

Good:
1. Nina will help weaken the polar vortex and bring more chances of cold air coming south
2. Increased precipitation for the Tennessee Valley/ reduced likelihood of a suppressed dry pattern
3. Favorable storm track over TN Valley if Polar Jet dips far south

Bad:
1. Enhanced severe risk for mid-South and Lower MS Delta
2. Warmer than average winter + below normal snowfall for much of the country
3. Less influential MJO early thanks to moderate Nina
4. Possible delayed spring with hard freezes well into March

I expect more chances for winter weather down in the Tennessee Valley later in the winter. It may be somewhat like last winter, with a few blasts of Arctic air making it very far south into the Southern Plains while the Bermuda High keeps the Southeast Coast warmer and drier than normal.

I think December will be very warm for much of the U.S. with few exceptions. The Northern Plains will be playing catch-up with seasonal snowfall in the second half of winter. Lake-effect snowfall may be amplified as a result of frequent storms tracking from the Plains to Quebec, bringing a nice NW flow over the lakes.

Most of the larger snowfall seasons come in the late Winer here. We get our wind in the 2nd half with Feb March brining most monsters.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: schneitzeit on December 01, 2021, 01:22:31 PM
Ryan Vaughn's winter outlook.

http://ryansmorningblog.blogspot.com/

Thanks for sharing. From his blog:

"So, what's going to happen in Winter 2021/2022? After looking at all of this data (and much more), here are my bullet points for the Winter of 2021/2022:
Big arctic outbreaks are possible in December. Overnight lows in the teens are likely and single-digit lows are possible
Sleet and freezing rain is more likely than snow this winter.
1 decent snow event. 2-3 sleet and freezing rain events.
Flooding rains are possible, especially in February. Magnitude is still questionable, but seeing 5-6" of rainfall in February is not out of the question.
February will have above average temperatures.
Big swings in temperatures are likely through the winter.
1-2 Severe weather events are possible with damaging winds. Maybe even tornadoes."
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Mr. Golf on December 01, 2021, 08:39:38 PM
Thanks for sharing. From his blog:

"So, what's going to happen in Winter 2021/2022? After looking at all of this data (and much more), here are my bullet points for the Winter of 2021/2022:
Big arctic outbreaks are possible in December. Overnight lows in the teens are likely and single-digit lows are possible
Sleet and freezing rain is more likely than snow this winter.
1 decent snow event. 2-3 sleet and freezing rain events.
Flooding rains are possible, especially in February. Magnitude is still questionable, but seeing 5-6" of rainfall in February is not out of the question.
February will have above average temperatures.
Big swings in temperatures are likely through the winter.
1-2 Severe weather events are possible with damaging winds. Maybe even tornadoes."
I know Ryan Vaughan pretty good, but trust me when I say he hates winter lol. Unless there is a monumental change, there will be no big arctic outbreaks in December imo. I cant predict the future. No one can, but it will be most likely after Christmas before we have a realistic chance at cold weather here. Like they say, all it takes is one event
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Nash_LSU on December 02, 2021, 12:28:53 PM
Thanks for sharing. From his blog:

"So, what's going to happen in Winter 2021/2022? After looking at all of this data (and much more), here are my bullet points for the Winter of 2021/2022:
Big arctic outbreaks are possible in December. Overnight lows in the teens are likely and single-digit lows are possible
Sleet and freezing rain is more likely than snow this winter.
1 decent snow event. 2-3 sleet and freezing rain events.
Flooding rains are possible, especially in February. Magnitude is still questionable, but seeing 5-6" of rainfall in February is not out of the question.
February will have above average temperatures.
Big swings in temperatures are likely through the winter.
1-2 Severe weather events are possible with damaging winds. Maybe even tornadoes."

Sooo...like most recent winters then?
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: mamMATTus on December 04, 2021, 03:15:18 PM
Why are replies turned off for the December thread? Need to keep our eyes on next Sunday.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: StormNine on December 04, 2021, 04:09:21 PM
Why are replies turned off for the December thread? Need to keep our eyes on next Sunday.

Not sure, even tomorrow could be sneaky in West TN.  The threat for next weekend is something to watch as well. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
Post by: Thundersnow on December 04, 2021, 05:43:39 PM
Why are replies turned off for the December thread? Need to keep our eyes on next Sunday.

It was locked.  I doubt that was intentional. I unlocked it.